WorldWideScience

Sample records for models observing events

  1. Modelling of an explosive event observed by SUMER & TRACE

    Science.gov (United States)

    Price, Daniel; Taroyan, Youra; Ishak, Bebe

    2016-07-01

    To fully understand coronal heating, we must first understand the different solar processes that move energy throughout the solar atmosphere. TRACE observations have revealed a short cold loop evolving over a small timescale, seemingly with multiple explosive events occurring along its length. An adaptive hydrodynamic radiation code was used to simulate the loop under non-equilibrium ionization. Footpoint heating and cold plasma injection were considered as possible scenarios to reproduce the observations. The simulation results were converted into synthetic observations through forward modelling, for comparison to SOHO/SUMER spectral observations of the loop.

  2. Probability distribution analysis of observational extreme events and model evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Q.; Lau, A. K. H.; Fung, J. C. H.; Tsang, K. T.

    2016-12-01

    Earth's surface temperatures were the warmest in 2015 since modern record-keeping began in 1880, according to the latest study. In contrast, a cold weather occurred in many regions of China in January 2016, and brought the first snowfall to Guangzhou, the capital city of Guangdong province in 67 years. To understand the changes of extreme weather events as well as project its future scenarios, this study use statistical models to analyze on multiple climate data. We first use Granger-causality test to identify the attribution of global mean temperature rise and extreme temperature events with CO2 concentration. The four statistical moments (mean, variance, skewness, kurtosis) of daily maximum temperature distribution is investigated on global climate observational, reanalysis (1961-2010) and model data (1961-2100). Furthermore, we introduce a new tail index based on the four moments, which is a more robust index to measure extreme temperatures. Our results show that the CO2 concentration can provide information to the time series of mean and extreme temperature, but not vice versa. Based on our new tail index, we find that other than mean and variance, skewness is an important indicator should be considered to estimate extreme temperature changes and model evaluation. Among the 12 climate model data we investigate, the fourth version of Community Climate System Model (CCSM4) from National Center for Atmospheric Research performs well on the new index we introduce, which indicate the model have a substantial capability to project the future changes of extreme temperature in the 21st century. The method also shows its ability to measure extreme precipitation/ drought events. In the future we will introduce a new diagram to systematically evaluate the performance of the four statistical moments in climate model output, moreover, the human and economic impacts of extreme weather events will also be conducted.

  3. Event Modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bækgaard, Lars

    2001-01-01

    The purpose of this chapter is to discuss conceptual event modeling within a context of information modeling. Traditionally, information modeling has been concerned with the modeling of a universe of discourse in terms of information structures. However, most interesting universes of discourse...... are dynamic and we present a modeling approach that can be used to model such dynamics. We characterize events as both information objects and change agents (Bækgaard 1997). When viewed as information objects events are phenomena that can be observed and described. For example, borrow events in a library can...

  4. Event Modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bækgaard, Lars

    2001-01-01

    The purpose of this chapter is to discuss conceptual event modeling within a context of information modeling. Traditionally, information modeling has been concerned with the modeling of a universe of discourse in terms of information structures. However, most interesting universes of discourse...... are dynamic and we present a modeling approach that can be used to model such dynamics.We characterize events as both information objects and change agents (Bækgaard 1997). When viewed as information objects events are phenomena that can be observed and described. For example, borrow events in a library can...

  5. Body and Surface Wave Modeling of Observed Seismic Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    1980-09-01

    period WSS (30,90) instrument at Golden, Colorado. Figure 2. Three component observation of the San Fernando earthquake recorded at ALQ, Nev Mexico ...Planet. tat., 13, 85-96. . . . . . -, .. _ . 101 Console, R. (1976). ?%ccanismo focal* del terremoto del Friuli del 6 Maggio 1976, Ann. di Geof., 9

  6. Modeling Seven Years of Event Horizon Telescope Observations with Radiatively Inefficient Accretion Flow Models

    CERN Document Server

    Broderick, Avery E; Johnson, Michael D; Rosenfeld, Katherine; Wang, Carlos; Doeleman, Sheperd S; Akiyama, Kazunori; Johannsen, Tim; Roy, Alan L

    2016-01-01

    An initial three-station version of the Event Horizon Telescope, a millimeter-wavelength very-long baseline interferometer, has observed Sagittarius A* (Sgr A*) repeatedly from 2007 to 2013, resulting in the measurement of a variety of interferometric quantities. Of particular importance, there is now a large set of closure phases, measured over a number of independent observing epochs. We analyze these observations within the context of a realization of semi-analytic radiatively inefficient disk models, implicated by the low luminosity of Sgr A*. We find a broad consistency among the various observing epochs and between different interferometric data types, with the latter providing significant support for this class of models of Sgr A*. The new data significantly tighten existing constraints on the spin magnitude and its orientation within this model context, finding a spin magnitude of $a=0.10^{+0.30+0.56}_{-0.10-0.10}$, an inclination with respect to the line of sight of $\\theta={60^\\circ}^{+5^\\circ+10^\\c...

  7. Modeling Seven Years of Event Horizon Telescope Observations with Radiatively Inefficient Accretion Flow Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Broderick, Avery E.; Fish, Vincent L.; Johnson, Michael D.; Rosenfeld, Katherine; Wang, Carlos; Doeleman, Sheperd S.; Akiyama, Kazunori; Johannsen, Tim; Roy, Alan L.

    2016-04-01

    An initial three-station version of the Event Horizon Telescope, a millimeter-wavelength very-long baseline interferometer, has observed Sagittarius A* (Sgr A*) repeatedly from 2007 to 2013, resulting in the measurement of a variety of interferometric quantities. Of particular importance is that there is now a large set of closure phases measured over a number of independent observing epochs. We analyze these observations within the context of a realization of semi-analytic radiatively inefficient disk models, implicated by the low luminosity of Sgr A*. We find a broad consistency among the various observing epochs and between different interferometric data types, with the latter providing significant support for this class of model of Sgr A*. The new data significantly tighten existing constraints on the spin magnitude and its orientation within this model context, finding a spin magnitude of a={0.10}-0.10-0.10+0.30+0.56, an inclination with respect to the line of sight of θ ={60^\\circ }-{8^\\circ -{13}^\\circ }+{5^\\circ +{10}^\\circ }, and a position angle of ξ ={156^\\circ }-{17^\\circ -{27}^\\circ }+{10^\\circ +{14}^\\circ } east of north. These are in good agreement with previous analyses. Notably, the previous 180° degeneracy in the position angle has now been conclusively broken by the inclusion of the closure-phase measurements. A reflection degeneracy in the inclination remains, permitting two localizations of the spin vector orientation, one of which is in agreement with the orbital angular momentum of the infrared gas cloud G2 and the clockwise disk of young stars. This may support a relationship between Sgr A*'s accretion flow and these larger-scale features.

  8. Infrasound signals from events at the DPRK test site: observations and modeling results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koch, Karl; Pilger, Christoph

    2017-04-01

    Over the last ten years North Korea announced underground nuclear test explosions at its Punggyi-ri test site in October 2006, May 2009, February 2013 as well as in January and September 2016. For the test in February 2013 infrasound arrivals are clearly seen in recordings at IMS station IS45 in Russia. These have been associated to the event in the Reviewed Event Bulletin (REB) along with an arrival for IMS station IS30, which appears hidden in the background noise of the waveforms. Even before these infrasound arrivals were detected, there have been reports from infrasound signals observed at a network of national infrasound stations in South Korea for the May 2009 events. These stations subsequently were also reported to have detected the 2013 event acoustically. More recently it was found for IS45 that it may have detections from the January 2016 underground nuclear explosion. Based on these reports we undertook a comprehensive study and searched for infrasound arrivals in the data of two IMS stations, IS30 and IS45, that could have originated from near-source conversion near the primary nuclear explosion source. For all events analyzed using the frequency-wavenumber (F-K) technique, we find infrasound signals, except for the events in 2009 and September 2016, that can be attributed to the source at the test site, in terms of appropriate arrival directions and apparent velocities. For the 2009 event we find a late acoustic arrival at IS45 corresponding to a previously observed arrival arriving early at South Korean stations, which are located in the opposite direction of IS45. We apply propagation modeling using ray tracing and parabolic equation calculations in order to verify all observed infrasound detections at the IMS stations as well as reported arrivals from a station in South Korea. Finally we also examined the case of the 12 May 2010 event, for which we find weak or spurious detections, but which we can model sufficiently well, so that we can not rule

  9. Forecast, observation and modelling of a deep stratospheric intrusion event over Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Zanis

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available A wide range of measurements was carried out in central and southeastern Europe within the framework of the EU project STACCATO (Influence of Stratosphere-Troposphere Exchange in a Changing Climate on Atmospheric Transport and Oxidation Capacity with the principle goal to create a comprehensive data set on stratospheric air intrusions into the troposphere along a rather frequently observed pathway over central Europe from the North Sea to the Mediterranean Sea. The measurements were based on predictions by suitable quasi-operational trajectory calculations using ECMWF forecast data. A predicted deep Stratosphere to Troposphere Transport (STT event, encountered during the STACCATO period on 20-21 June 2001, was followed by the measurements network almost from its inception. Observations provide evidence that the intrusion affected large parts of central and southeastern Europe. Especially, the ozone lidar observations on 20-21 June 2001 at Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany captured the evolution of two marked tongues of high ozone with the first one descending to nearly 2 km, thus providing an excellent data set for model intercomparisons and validation. In addition, for the first time to our knowledge concurrent surface measurements of the cosmogenic radionuclides 10Be and 7Be and their ratio 10Be/7Be are presented together as stratospheric tracers in a case study of a stratospheric intrusion. The ozone tracer columns calculated with the FLEXPART model were found to be in good agreement with water vapour satellite images, capturing the evolution of the observed dry streamers of stratospheric origin. Furthermore, the time-height cross section of ozone tracer simulated with FLEXPART over Garmisch-Partenkirchen captures many details of the evolution of the two observed high-ozone filaments measured with the IFU lidar, thus demonstrating the considerable progress in model simulations. Finally, the modelled ozone (operationally available since October

  10. Evaluation of a conceptual rainfall forecasting model from observed and simulated rain events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Dolciné

    1998-01-01

    Full Text Available Very short-term rainfall forecasting models designed for runoff analysis of catchments, particularly those subject to flash-floods, typically include one or more variables deduced from weather radars. Useful variables for defining the state and evolution of a rain system include rainfall rate, vertically integrated rainwater content and advection velocity. The forecast model proposed in this work complements recent dynamical formulations by focusing on a formulation incorporating these variables using volumetric radar data to define the model state variables, determining the rainfall source term directly from multi-scan radar data, explicitly accounting for orographic enhancement, and explicitly incorporating the dynamical model components in an advection-diffusion scheme. An evaluation of this model is presented for four rain events collected in the South of France and in the North-East of Italy. Model forecasts are compared with two simple methods: persistence and extrapolation. An additional analysis is performed using an existing mono-dimensional microphysical meteorological model to produce simulated rain events and provide initialization data. Forecasted rainfall produced by the proposed model and the extrapolation method are compared to the simulated events. The results show that the forecast model performance is influenced by rainfall temporal variability and performance is better for less variable rain events. The comparison with the extrapolation method shows that the proposed model performs better than extrapolation in the initial period of the forecast lead-time. It is shown that the performance of the proposed model over the extrapolation method depends essentially on the additional vertical information available from voluminal radar.

  11. Mixed effects models for recurrent events data with partially observed time-varying covariates: Ecological momentary assessment of smoking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rathbun, Stephen L; Shiffman, Saul

    2016-03-01

    Cigarette smoking is a prototypical example of a recurrent event. The pattern of recurrent smoking events may depend on time-varying covariates including mood and environmental variables. Fixed effects and frailty models for recurrent events data assume that smokers have a common association with time-varying covariates. We develop a mixed effects version of a recurrent events model that may be used to describe variation among smokers in how they respond to those covariates, potentially leading to the development of individual-based smoking cessation therapies. Our method extends the modified EM algorithm of Steele (1996) for generalized mixed models to recurrent events data with partially observed time-varying covariates. It is offered as an alternative to the method of Rizopoulos, Verbeke, and Lesaffre (2009) who extended Steele's (1996) algorithm to a joint-model for the recurrent events data and time-varying covariates. Our approach does not require a model for the time-varying covariates, but instead assumes that the time-varying covariates are sampled according to a Poisson point process with known intensity. Our methods are well suited to data collected using Ecological Momentary Assessment (EMA), a method of data collection widely used in the behavioral sciences to collect data on emotional state and recurrent events in the every-day environments of study subjects using electronic devices such as Personal Digital Assistants (PDA) or smart phones.

  12. The effects of model upper limb position on observer P300 event-related potential

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nagai Yukiko

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Study aim: This study reports on the characteristics of learners’ information-gathering processes when receiving visual motor information by examining the influence of differences in model upper limb placement on observer attention.

  13. Calculation of Fission Observables Through Event-by-Event Simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Randrup, J; Vogt, R

    2009-06-04

    The increased interest in more exclusive fission observables has demanded more detailed models. We present here a new computational model, FREYA, that aims to met this need by producing large samples of complete fission events from which any observable of interest can then be extracted consistently, including arbitrary correlations. The various model assumptions are described and the potential utility of the model is illustrated by means of several novel correlation observables.

  14. SAR observation and model tracking of an oil spill event in coastal waters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cheng, Yongcun; Li, Xiaofeng; Xu, Qing

    2011-01-01

    Oil spills are a major contributor to marine pollution. The objective of this work is to simulate the oil spill trajectory of oil released from a pipeline leaking in the Gulf of Mexico with the GNOME (General NOAA Operational Modeling Environment) model. The model was developed by NOAA (National...... the simulation, ocean currents from NCOM (Navy Coastal Ocean Model) outputs and surface wind data measured by an NDBC (National Data Buoy Center) buoy are used to drive the GNOME model. The results show good agreement between the simulated trajectory of the oil spill and synchronous observations from...... the European ENVISAT ASAR (Advanced Synthetic Aperture Radar) and the Japanese ALOS (Advanced Land Observing Satellite) PALSAR (Phased Array L-band Synthetic Aperture Radar) images. Based on experience with past marine oil spills, about 63.0% of the oil will float and 18.5% of the oil will evaporate...

  15. Evaluating Heating and Moisture Variability Associated with MJO Events in a Low-Dimension Dynamic Model with Observations and Reanalyses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stachnik, J. P.; Waliser, D. E.; Majda, A.; Stechmann, S.

    2013-12-01

    The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the leading mode of intraseasonal variability in the tropics. Despite its importance toward determining large-scale variability at both low-latitudes and the extratropics, MJO prediction often suffers from low skill regarding event initiation and its overall simulation remains a challenge in many global climate models (GCMs). The MJO 'skeleton' model, originally developed by Majda and Stechmann (2009), is a new low-order dynamic model that is capable of reproducing several salient features of the MJO despite its many simplifications relative to higher-order GCMs. Among their successes, the newest version of the skeleton model is able to reproduce the intermittent generation of MJO events, including organization into MJO wave trains that experience both growth and decay. This study presents an analysis of initiation events in the skeleton model. Higher-order features, such as the organization into wave trains, are examined herein and we document the simulated heating and moisture variability in the model compared to satellite-derived observations and reanalyses. We likewise present a composite analysis of the thermodynamic fields related to the initiation of primary and successive MJO events, as well as those precursor conditions leading to quiescent periods of the MJO. Time permitting, we also evaluate the multi-scale structures and other aspects of heating and moisture variability in the model (e.g., asymmetry between active and inactive periods) compared to distributions of integrated heating and moisture in Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) observations and other datasets.

  16. Observations and modelling of soil slip-debris flow initiation processes in pyroclastic deposits: the Sarno 1998 event

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. B. Crosta

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available Pyroclastic soils mantling a wide area of the Campanian Apennines are subjected to recurrent instability phenomena. This study analyses the 5 and 6 May 1998 event which affected the Pizzo d’Alvano (Campania, southern Italy. More than 400 slides affecting shallow pyroclastic deposits were triggered by intense and prolonged but not extreme rainfall. Landslides affected the pyroclastic deposits that cover the steep calcareous ridges and are soil slip-debris flows and rapid mudflows. About 30 main channels were deeply scoured by flows which reached the alluvial fans depositing up to 400 000 m3 of material in the piedmont areas. About 75% of the landslides are associated with morphological discontinuities such as limestone cliffs and roads. The sliding surface is located within the pyroclastic cover, generally at the base of a pumice layer. Geotechnical characterisation of pyroclastic deposits has been accomplished by laboratory and in situ tests. Numerical modelling of seepage processes and stability analyses have been run on four simplified models representing different settings observed at the source areas. Seepage modelling showed the formation of pore pressure pulses in pumice layers and the localised increase of pore pressure in correspondence of stratigraphic discontinuities as response to the rainfall event registered between 28 April and 5 May. Numerical modelling provided pore pressure values for stability analyses and pointed out critical conditions where stratigraphic or morphological discontinuities occur. This study excludes the need of a groundwater flow from the underlying bedrock toward the pyroclastic cover for instabilities to occur.

  17. Observations and modelling of soil slip-debris flow initiation processes in pyroclastic deposits: the Sarno 1998 event

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crosta, G. B.; Dal Negro, P.

    Pyroclastic soils mantling a wide area of the Campanian Apennines are subjected to recurrent instability phenomena. This study analyses the 5 and 6 May 1998 event which affected the Pizzo d'Alvano (Campania, southern Italy). More than 400 slides affecting shallow pyroclastic deposits were triggered by intense and prolonged but not extreme rainfall. Landslides affected the pyroclastic deposits that cover the steep calcareous ridges and are soil slip-debris flows and rapid mudflows. About 30 main channels were deeply scoured by flows which reached the alluvial fans depositing up to 400 000 m3 of material in the piedmont areas. About 75% of the landslides are associated with morphological discontinuities such as limestone cliffs and roads. The sliding surface is located within the pyroclastic cover, generally at the base of a pumice layer. Geotechnical characterisation of pyroclastic deposits has been accomplished by laboratory and in situ tests. Numerical modelling of seepage processes and stability analyses have been run on four simplified models representing different settings observed at the source areas. Seepage modelling showed the formation of pore pressure pulses in pumice layers and the localised increase of pore pressure in correspondence of stratigraphic discontinuities as response to the rainfall event registered between 28 April and 5 May. Numerical modelling provided pore pressure values for stability analyses and pointed out critical conditions where stratigraphic or morphological discontinuities occur. This study excludes the need of a groundwater flow from the underlying bedrock toward the pyroclastic cover for instabilities to occur.

  18. Episodes, events, and models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sangeet eKhemlani

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available We describe a novel computational theory of how individuals segment perceptual information into representations of events. The theory is inspired by recent findings in the cognitive science and cognitive neuroscience of event segmentation. In line with recent theories, it holds that online event segmentation is automatic, and that event segmentation yields mental simulations of events. But it posits two novel principles as well: first, discrete episodic markers track perceptual and conceptual changes, and can be retrieved to construct event models. Second, the process of retrieving and reconstructing those episodic markers is constrained and prioritized. We describe a computational implementation of the theory, as well as a robotic extension of the theory that demonstrates the processes of online event segmentation and event model construction. The theory is the first unified computational account of event segmentation and temporal inference. We conclude by demonstrating now neuroimaging data can constrain and inspire the construction of process-level theories of human reasoning.

  19. Full-kinetic elve model simulations and their comparison with the ISUAL observed events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuo, C.; Huang, T.; Chang, S.; Chou, J.; Lee, L.; Chen, A. B.; Su, H.; Hsu, R.; Frey, H. U.; Mende, S. B.; Takahashi, Y.; Lee, L.

    2011-12-01

    The duration of the optical emissions from elves is relatively short (kinetic chemistry in elves [Sentman et al., 2008; Kuo et al., 2011]. The modeling results can provide the relatively intensity ratios of the major and the minor emissions in elves. The estimated relative intensities can be used to analyze for the involved radiative states and to infer their percentage that fall within the ISUAL Imager filter passing band. The simulation results could also be useful in designing the imager filters for the future TLE survey missions. [*Works were supported in part by the National Space Organization (NSPO) and the National Science Council (NSC) in Taiwan under grants NSC 99-2112-M-006-006-MY3, NSC 99-2111-M-006-001-MY3, NSC 100-2119-M-006-015

  20. Estimation of energy budget of ionosphere-thermosphere system during two CIR-HSS events: observations and modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verkhoglyadova, Olga; Meng, Xing; Mannucci, Anthony J.; Tsurutani, Bruce T.; Hunt, Linda A.; Mlynczak, Martin G.; Hajra, Rajkumar; Emery, Barbara A.

    2016-04-01

    We analyze the energy budget of the ionosphere-thermosphere (IT) system during two High-Speed Streams (HSSs) on 22-31 January, 2007 (in the descending phase of solar cycle 23) and 25 April-2 May, 2011 (in the ascending phase of solar cycle 24) to understand typical features, similarities, and differences in magnetosphere-ionosphere-thermosphere (IT) coupling during HSS geomagnetic activity. We focus on the solar wind energy input into the magnetosphere (by using coupling functions) and energy partitioning within the IT system during these intervals. The Joule heating is estimated empirically. Hemispheric power is estimated based on satellite measurements. We utilize observations from TIMED/SABER (Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics/Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry) to estimate nitric oxide (NO) and carbon dioxide (CO2) cooling emission fluxes. We perform a detailed modeling study of these two similar HSS events with the Global Ionosphere-Thermosphere Model (GITM) and different external driving inputs to understand the IT response and to address how well the model reproduces the energy transport. GITM is run in a mode with forecastable inputs. It is shown that the model captures the main features of the energy coupling, but underestimates NO cooling and auroral heating in high latitudes. Lower thermospheric forcing at 100 km altitude is important for correct energy balance of the IT system. We discuss challenges for a physics-based general forecasting approach in modeling the energy budget of moderate IT storms caused by HSSs.

  1. CATASTROPHIC EVENTS MODELING

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    Ciumas Cristina

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the emergence and evolution of catastrophe models (cat models. Starting with the present context of extreme weather events and features of catastrophic risk (cat risk we’ll make a chronological illustration from a theoretical point of view of the main steps taken for building such models. In this way the importance of interdisciplinary can be observed. The first cat model considered contains three modules. For each of these indentified modules: hazard, vulnerability and financial losses a detailed overview and also an exemplification of a potential case of an earthquake that measures more than 7 on Richter scale occurring nowadays in Bucharest will be provided. The key areas exposed to earthquake in Romania will be identified. Then, based on past catastrophe data and taking into account present conditions of housing stock, insurance coverage and the population of Bucharest the impact will be quantified by determining potential losses. In order to accomplish this work we consider a scenario with data representing average values for: dwelling’s surface, location, finishing works. On each step we’ll make a reference to the earthquake on March 4 1977 to see what would happen today if a similar event occurred. The value of Bucharest housing stock will be determined taking firstly the market value, then the replacement value and ultimately the real value to quantify potential damages. Through this approach we can find the insurance coverage of potential losses and also the uncovered gap. A solution that may be taken into account by public authorities, for example by Bucharest City Hall will be offered: in case such an event occurs the impossibility of paying compensations to insured people, rebuilding infrastructure and public buildings and helping the suffering persons should be avoided. An actively public-private partnership should be created between government authorities, the Natural Disaster Insurance Pool, private

  2. Between-event and between-station variability observed in the Fourier and response spectra domains: comparison with seismological models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bindi, D.; Spallarossa, D.; Pacor, F.

    2017-08-01

    In this study, we analyse a regional data set composed by about 9000 waveforms from 231 earthquakes in the magnitude range from 3 to 6 and recorded in central Italy in the time period 2008-2013. We derive a seismological model whose source, attenuation and site parameters are used to explain the ground motion variability associated with a set of ground motion prediction equation (GMPE) calibrated ad hoc for both Fourier and acceleration response spectra. The main results are the following: (1) the between-event residuals δΒe show a clear dependence on the stress drop for frequencies above 2 Hz; (2) the standard deviation τ of δΒe is strongly reduced (up to 80 per cent) by introducing in the functional form the stress drop values estimated from each source spectrum; (3) the standard deviation τ depends on the magnitude scale used to calibrate the GMPE: while the moment magnitude better describes the source variability at low frequency, the local magnitude better capture the source-related ground motion variability at frequencies larger than 2 Hz; (4) for frequencies higher than 10 Hz, the observed increase of τ with frequency correlate well with the attenuation parameter ksource, computed from the high-frequency slope of the source spectra. Regarding the station-to-station residuals δS2S, their frequency dependency is in good agreement with the site amplifications extracted from the S-wave spectra. Finally, while the overall dependences of the ground motion variability on seismological parameters are similar when observed either in the Fourier or in the response spectra domains (e.g. the dependency of the between event on stress drop), differences in the results suggest that the response spectra do not allow to fully capture the ground motion variability, as well as the site amplifications, at high frequencies.

  3. An Observation and Modeling Study of a Sudden Impulse Event for the Coupled Magnetosphere-Ionosphere System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ozturk, Dogacan; Slavin, A. James; Zou, Shasha

    2016-07-01

    The dayside response of the Magnetosphere-Ionosphere system to an increment in the solar wind pressure and its propagation towards the magnetotail is investigated. The pressure enhancement compresses the magnetosphere front and this compression creates shear Alfven waves that lead to intensified Field-Aligned Currents (FACs). We use the University of Michigan global magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) code, Block Adaptive Tree Solar-wind Roe Upwind Scheme (BATS'R'US) to model the response of the Magnetosphere-Ionosphere system. The measurements from Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) are used for the upstream solar wind values to drive the model. We use the Rice Convection Model (RCM) for the Inner Magnetosphere and improve the treatment of ionospheric conductivity of the system. We compare the FAC patterns and intensities of the model with the high-resolution data from Active Magnetosphere and Polar Electrodynamics Response Experiment (AMPERE). We also study the magnetic perturbation signatures of the event obtained from selected ground-based magnetometers and associated output for the magnetometer station from the model. In addition, we investigate the propagation of the sudden impulse through the tail to understand the wave characteristics. Using the multipoint observations of Magnetospheric MultiScale (MMS) mission and other magnetospheric spacecraft we determine the wave propagation speed and compare it with the model results to better understand the response mechanism. By using the magnetic field measurements from MMS we also study how the magnetic topology and the boundary changes in the magnetotail as the sudden impulse (SI) signatures propagate through the tail.

  4. Combined observations of a Bora event in the Adriatic Sea by means of ETA model and SAR data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adamo, Maria; De Carolis, Giacomo; Morelli, Sandra; Rana, Fabio

    2013-04-01

    The Bora is a cold, strong, low level wind which blows from the northeast along the Adriatic coast (Ivančan-Picek and Tutiš, 1996, Lazić and Tošić, 1998, Morelli and Berni, 2002). Bora wind is known to have multiple surface wind jets linked to the orography of the Dinaric Alps and alters significantly the sea status (Cesini et al, 2004). A recent version of the Eta model (Mesinger et al, 2012), which is a three-dimensional, primitive equation, grid-point model, was used to represent the low level wind field corresponding to the Bora event occurred at the beginning of February 2012. Numerical simulations, initialized by ECMWF data, were performed with different horizontal resolutions (approximately 20 km and 4 km) and domain extent. The numerical simulations describe the atmospheric conditions of the period and reveal the spatial structure of the wind, in good agreement with the understanding as well as the observational knowledge of the bora. In addition, the wind speed and direction was estimated on the ASAR images. Wind directions were obtained by exploiting a novel technique based on the use of 2D continuous wavelets (Zecchetto and De Biasio, 2001, 2008). Then, the retrieved wind directions were used to estimate the wind speed from the ASAR NRCS by inverting the semi-empirical backscatter model CMOD-5 (Hersbach, 2005). The ASAR observed morphology, wake patterns and, where present, dual-jet structure of the Bora wind were analysed for 2 and 5 February at the two different Eta resolution scales. Results of the comparisons between Eta prediction and ASAR data will be shown. Cesini D., Morelli S., Parmiggiani F.: Analysis of an intense bora event in the Adriatic area, Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 4, 323-337, 2004. Hersbach H.: CMOD-5. An improved geophysical model function for ERS C-band scatterometry, ECMWF Technical Memorandum 395, Reading, England, pp. 1-50, 2003. Ivančan-Picek, B., Tutiš, V.: A case study of a severe Adriatic bora on 28

  5. Estimation of energy budget of ionosphere-thermosphere system during two CIR-HSS events: observations and modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Verkhoglyadova Olga

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available We analyze the energy budget of the ionosphere-thermosphere (IT system during two High-Speed Streams (HSSs on 22–31 January, 2007 (in the descending phase of solar cycle 23 and 25 April–2 May, 2011 (in the ascending phase of solar cycle 24 to understand typical features, similarities, and differences in magnetosphere-ionosphere-thermosphere (IT coupling during HSS geomagnetic activity. We focus on the solar wind energy input into the magnetosphere (by using coupling functions and energy partitioning within the IT system during these intervals. The Joule heating is estimated empirically. Hemispheric power is estimated based on satellite measurements. We utilize observations from TIMED/SABER (Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics/Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry to estimate nitric oxide (NO and carbon dioxide (CO2 cooling emission fluxes. We perform a detailed modeling study of these two similar HSS events with the Global Ionosphere-Thermosphere Model (GITM and different external driving inputs to understand the IT response and to address how well the model reproduces the energy transport. GITM is run in a mode with forecastable inputs. It is shown that the model captures the main features of the energy coupling, but underestimates NO cooling and auroral heating in high latitudes. Lower thermospheric forcing at 100 km altitude is important for correct energy balance of the IT system. We discuss challenges for a physics-based general forecasting approach in modeling the energy budget of moderate IT storms caused by HSSs.

  6. Modeling Documents with Event Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Longhui Wang

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Currently deep learning has made great breakthroughs in visual and speech processing, mainly because it draws lessons from the hierarchical mode that brain deals with images and speech. In the field of NLP, a topic model is one of the important ways for modeling documents. Topic models are built on a generative model that clearly does not match the way humans write. In this paper, we propose Event Model, which is unsupervised and based on the language processing mechanism of neurolinguistics, to model documents. In Event Model, documents are descriptions of concrete or abstract events seen, heard, or sensed by people and words are objects in the events. Event Model has two stages: word learning and dimensionality reduction. Word learning is to learn semantics of words based on deep learning. Dimensionality reduction is the process that representing a document as a low dimensional vector by a linear mode that is completely different from topic models. Event Model achieves state-of-the-art results on document retrieval tasks.

  7. Nighttime mesospheric hydroxyl enhancements during SEP events and accompanying geomagnetic storms: Ionization rate modeling and Aura satellite observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verkhoglyadova, O. P.; Wissing, J. M.; Wang, S.; Kallenrode, M.-B.; Zank, G. P.

    2016-07-01

    We quantify the effects of combined precipitating solar protons and magnetospheric electrons on nighttime odd hydrogen density enhancements during two solar energetic particle (SEP) events accompanied by strong geomagnetic storms. We perform detailed modeling of ionization rates for 7-17 November 2004 and 20-30 August 2005 intervals with improved version 1.6 of the Atmospheric Ionization Module Osnabrück model. Particle measurements from Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites and Polar Orbiting Environmental Satellites are sorted and combined in 2 h intervals to create realistic particle precipitation maps that are used as the modeling input. We show that modeled atmospheric ionization rates and estimated peak odd hydrogen (primarily hydroxyl) production from 0.001 hPa to 0.1 hPa atmospheric pressure levels during these intervals are consistent with enhancements in nighttime averaged zonal odd hydrogen densities derived from newly reprocessed and improved data set of Microwave Limb Sounder instrument on board Aura satellite. We show that both precipitating SEPs and magnetospheric electrons contribute to mesospheric ionization and their relative contributions change throughout the intervals. Our event-based modeling results underline the importance of the combined ionization sources for odd hydrogen chemistry in the middle atmosphere.

  8. Modeling Events with Cascades of Poisson Processes

    CERN Document Server

    Simma, Aleksandr

    2012-01-01

    We present a probabilistic model of events in continuous time in which each event triggers a Poisson process of successor events. The ensemble of observed events is thereby modeled as a superposition of Poisson processes. Efficient inference is feasible under this model with an EM algorithm. Moreover, the EM algorithm can be implemented as a distributed algorithm, permitting the model to be applied to very large datasets. We apply these techniques to the modeling of Twitter messages and the revision history of Wikipedia.

  9. Pulsar Observations of Extreme Scattering Events

    CERN Document Server

    Coles, W A; Shannon, R M; Hobbs, G; Manchester, R N; You, X P; Bailes, M; Bhat, N D R; Burke-Spolaor, S; Dai, S; Keith, M J; Levin, Y; Oslowski, S; Ravi, V; Reardon, D; Toomey, L; van Straten, W; Wang, J B; Wen, L; Zhu, X J

    2015-01-01

    Extreme scattering events (ESEs) in the interstellar medium (ISM) were first observed in regular flux measurements of compact extragalactic sources. They are characterized by a flux variation over a period of weeks, suggesting the passage of a "diverging plasma lens" across the line of sight. Modeling the refraction of such a lens indicates that the structure size must be of order AU and the electron density of order 10s of cm^{-3}. Similar structures have been observed in measurements of pulsar intensity scintillation and group delay. Here we report observations of two ESEs showing increases in both intensity scintillation and dispersion made with the Parkes Pulsar Timing Array (PPTA). These allow us to make more complete models of the ESE, including an estimate of the "outer-scale" of the turbulence in the plasma lens. These observations show clearly that the ESE structure is fully turbulent on an AU scale. They provide some support for the idea that the structures are extended along the line of sight, such...

  10. Event-Based Conceptual Modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bækgaard, Lars

    2009-01-01

    The purpose of the paper is to obtain insight into and provide practical advice for event-based conceptual modeling. We analyze a set of event concepts and use the results to formulate a conceptual event model that is used to identify guidelines for creation of dynamic process models and static...... information models. We characterize events as short-duration processes that have participants, consequences, and properties, and that may be modeled in terms of information structures. The conceptual event model is used to characterize a variety of event concepts and it is used to illustrate how events can...... be used to integrate dynamic modeling of processes and static modeling of information structures. The results are unique in the sense that no other general event concept has been used to unify a similar broad variety of seemingly incompatible event concepts. The general event concept can be used...

  11. Event-Based Conceptual Modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bækgaard, Lars

    The paper demonstrates that a wide variety of event-based modeling approaches are based on special cases of the same general event concept, and that the general event concept can be used to unify the otherwise unrelated fields of information modeling and process modeling. A set of event......-based modeling approaches are analyzed and the results are used to formulate a general event concept that can be used for unifying the seemingly unrelated event concepts. Events are characterized as short-duration processes that have participants, consequences, and properties, and that may be modeled in terms...... of information structures. The general event concept can be used to guide systems analysis and design and to improve modeling approaches....

  12. Observations of Pluto-Charon mutual events

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Blanco, C.; Di Martino, M.; Ferreri, W. (Catania Universita (Italy); Osservatorio Astronomico, Turin (Italy))

    1989-07-01

    As part of the planned 'Pluto-Charon Mutual Eclipse Season Campaign', one mutual event was observed at the ESO Observatory on July 10, 1986 and seven mutual events were observed at the Serra La Nave stellar station of Catania Astrophysical Observatory from April 29 to July 21, 1987. At ESO the measurements were performed at the 61-cm Bochum telescope equipped with a photon-counting system and U, B, V, filters; at Serra La Nave the Cassegrain focus of the 91-cm reflector was equipped with a photon-counting system and B and V filters. The observed light losses and contact times do not show relevant systematic deviations from the predicted ones. An examination of the behavior of the B and V light curves gives slight indications of a different slope of the B and V light loss of the same event for a superior or an inferior event, and shows that the superior events are shallower at wavelengths longer than B. 6 refs.

  13. OBSERVABILITY OF EXTENDED TIMED EVENT GRAPH

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHUO Zhibing; CHEN Wende

    2004-01-01

    In this paper, we study some results of extended timed event graph (ETEG)by using graph theory's methods in the dioid framework. A necessary and sufficient condition for the observability of ETEG is obtained and ETEG's standard structure is also established.

  14. The Infinite Latent Events Model

    CERN Document Server

    Wingate, David; Roy, Daniel; Tenenbaum, Joshua

    2012-01-01

    We present the Infinite Latent Events Model, a nonparametric hierarchical Bayesian distribution over infinite dimensional Dynamic Bayesian Networks with binary state representations and noisy-OR-like transitions. The distribution can be used to learn structure in discrete timeseries data by simultaneously inferring a set of latent events, which events fired at each timestep, and how those events are causally linked. We illustrate the model on a sound factorization task, a network topology identification task, and a video game task.

  15. Observations and modelling of soil slip-debris flow initiation processes in pyroclastic deposits: the Sarno 1998 event

    OpenAIRE

    Crosta, G. B.; Negro, P.

    2003-01-01

    Pyroclastic soils mantling a wide area of the Campanian Apennines are subjected to recurrent instability phenomena. This study analyses the 5 and 6 May 1998 event which affected the Pizzo d’Alvano (Campania, southern Italy). More than 400 slides affecting shallow pyroclastic deposits were triggered by intense and prolonged but not extreme rainfall. Landslides affected the pyroclastic deposits that cover the steep calcareous ridges and are ...

  16. Event-Based Activity Modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bækgaard, Lars

    2004-01-01

    We present and discuss a modeling approach that supports event-based modeling of information and activity in information systems. Interacting human actors and IT-actors may carry out such activity. We use events to create meaningful relations between information structures and the related activit...

  17. Analysis of recurrent event data with incomplete observation gaps.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Yang-Jin; Jhun, Myoungshic

    2008-03-30

    In analysis of recurrent event data, recurrent events are not completely experienced when the terminating event occurs before the end of a study. To make valid inference of recurrent events, several methods have been suggested for accommodating the terminating event (Statist. Med. 1997; 16:911-924; Biometrics 2000; 56:554-562). In this paper, our interest is to consider a particular situation, where intermittent dropouts result in observation gaps during which no recurrent events are observed. In this situation, risk status varies over time and the usual definition of risk variable is not applicable. In particular, we consider the case when information on the observation gap is incomplete, that is, the starting time of intermittent dropout is known but the terminating time is not available. This incomplete information is modeled in terms of an interval-censored mechanism. Our proposed method is applied to the study of the Young Traffic Offenders Program on conviction rates, wherein a certain proportion of subjects experienced suspensions with intermittent dropouts during the study.

  18. Reproducing the observed energy-dependent structure of Earth's electron radiation belts during storm recovery with an event-specific diffusion model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ripoll, J.-F.; Reeves, G. D.; Cunningham, G. S.; Loridan, V.; Denton, M.; Santolík, O.; Kurth, W. S.; Kletzing, C. A.; Turner, D. L.; Henderson, M. G.; Ukhorskiy, A. Y.

    2016-06-01

    We present dynamic simulations of energy-dependent losses in the radiation belt "slot region" and the formation of the two-belt structure for the quiet days after the 1 March storm. The simulations combine radial diffusion with a realistic scattering model, based data-driven spatially and temporally resolved whistler-mode hiss wave observations from the Van Allen Probes satellites. The simulations reproduce Van Allen Probes observations for all energies and L shells (2-6) including (a) the strong energy dependence to the radiation belt dynamics (b) an energy-dependent outer boundary to the inner zone that extends to higher L shells at lower energies and (c) an "S-shaped" energy-dependent inner boundary to the outer zone that results from the competition between diffusive radial transport and losses. We find that the characteristic energy-dependent structure of the radiation belts and slot region is dynamic and can be formed gradually in ~15 days, although the "S shape" can also be reproduced by assuming equilibrium conditions. The highest-energy electrons (E > 300 keV) of the inner region of the outer belt (L ~ 4-5) also constantly decay, demonstrating that hiss wave scattering affects the outer belt during times of extended plasmasphere. Through these simulations, we explain the full structure in energy and L shell of the belts and the slot formation by hiss scattering during storm recovery. We show the power and complexity of looking dynamically at the effects over all energies and L shells and the need for using data-driven and event-specific conditions.

  19. Calculation of 239Pu fission observables in an event-by-event simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vogt, R; Randrup, J; Pruet, J; Younes, W

    2010-03-31

    The increased interest in more exclusive fission observables has demanded more detailed models. We describe a new computational model, FREYA, that aims to meet this need by producing large samples of complete fission events from which any observable of interest can then be extracted consistently, including any interesting correlations. The various model assumptions are described and the potential utility of the model is illustrated. As a concrete example, we use formal statistical methods, experimental data on neutron production in neutron-induced fission of {sup 239}Pu, along with FREYA, to develop quantitative insights into the relation between reaction observables and detailed microscopic aspects of fission. Current measurements of the mean number of prompt neutrons emitted in fission taken together with less accurate current measurements for the prompt post-fission neutron energy spectrum, up to the threshold for multi-chance fission, place remarkably fine constraints on microscopic theories.

  20. Event-by-event study of neutron observables in spontaneous and thermal fission

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vogt, R; Randrup, J

    2011-09-14

    The event-by-event fission model FREYA is extended to spontaneous fission of actinides and a variety of neutron observables are studied for spontaneous fission and fission induced by thermal neutrons with a view towards possible applications for SNM detection. We have shown that event-by-event models of fission, such as FREYA, provide a powerful tool for studying fission neutron correlations. Our results demonstrate that these correlations are significant and exhibit a dependence on the fissioning nucleus. Since our method is phenomenological in nature, good input data are especially important. Some of the measurements employed in FREYA are rather old and statistics limited. It would be useful to repeat some of these studies with modern detector techniques. In addition, most experiments made to date have not made simultaneous measurements of the fission products and the prompt observables, such as neutron and photons. Such data, while obviously more challenging to obtain, would be valuable for achieving a more complete understanding of the fission process.

  1. Research on Event Handling Models of Java

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WU Yue; WU Jing; ZHOU Ming-tian

    2004-01-01

    A new event-handling paradigm and its application model are proposed. The working mechanism and principle of event listener model is given in detail. Finally, the launching event mechanisms,the choosing event handling models and the dispatching mechanism are illustrated.

  2. Model space of economic events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romanovsky, M. Yu.

    A method for constructing the model or virtual space of economic events when economic objects can be considered as material ones is suggested. We describe change of share rates in time at stock markets as the potential difference of attracted bodies in time in this virtual space. Each share of each enterprise is displayed by a single particle with a unit “charge”. It is shown that the random value of potential difference at the origin of coordinates measured at a definite time interval has the probability density coinciding with the known distribution of “Levy flights” or “Levy walks”. A distribution of alteration in time of the “Standard and Poor” index value obtained by Mantegna and Stanley (they shown that it is the “Levy walks” distribution too) (Mantegna and Stanley, Nature 376 (1995) 46) is used for determination of the introduced potential dependence on coordinates in the model space. A simple phenomenological model of interaction potential is introduced. The potential law of each particle turns out to be closed to r-2.14 in the minimum possible three-dimensional model space. This model permits calculation of time of random potential correlations at a certain point of the model space. These correlations could characterize the time period of making a decision by an investor at stock exchange. It is shown that this time is notably shorter in unstable periods (1987). A “microscopical” model of interaction in the virtual space is also discussed.

  3. MESSENGER Observations of Large Flux Transfer Events at Mercury

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slavin, James A.; Lepping, Ronald P.; Wu, Chin-Chun; Anderson, Brian J.; Baker, Daniel N.; Benna, Mehdi; Boardsen, Scott A.; Killen, Rosemary M.; Korth, Haje; Krimigis, Stamatios M.; McClintock, William E.; McNutt, Ralph L., Jr.; Sarantos, Menelaos; Schriver, David; Solomon, Sean C.; Travnicek, Pavel; Zurbuchen, Thomas H.

    2010-01-01

    Six flux transfer events (FTEs) were encountered during MESSENGER's first two flybys of Mercury (M1 and M2). For M1 the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) was predominantly northward and four FTEs with durations of 1 to 6 s were observed in the magnetosheath following southward IMF turnings. The IMF was steadily southward during M2, and an FTE 4 s in duration was observed just inside the dawn magnetopause followed approx. 32 s later by a 7 s FTE in the magnetosheath. Flux rope models were fit to the magnetic field data to determine FTE dimensions and flux content. The largest FTE observed by MESSENGER had a diameter of approx. 1 R(sub M) (where R(sub M) is Mercury s radius), and its open magnetic field increased the fraction of the surface exposed to the solar wind by 10 - 20 percent and contributed up to approx. 30 kV to the cross-magnetospheric electric potential.

  4. GPS observations of coseismic deformation following the May 20 and 29, 2012, Emilia seismic events (northern Italy: data, analysis and preliminary models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Enrico Serpelloni

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available In May-July 2012, a seismic sequence struck a broad area of the Po Plain Region in northern Italy. The sequence included two Ml >5.5 mainshocks. The first one (Ml 5.9 occurred near the city of Finale Emilia (ca. 30 km west of Ferrara on May 20 at 02:03:53 (UTC, and the second (Ml 5.8 occurred on May 29 at 7:00:03 (UTC, about 12 km southwest of the May 20 mainshock (Figure 1, near the city of Mirandola. The seismic sequence involved an area that extended in an E-W direction for more than 50 km, and included seven Ml ≥5.0 events and more than 2,300 Ml >1.5 events (http://iside.rm.ingv.it. The focal mechanisms of the main events [Pondrelli et al. 2012, Scognamiglio et al. 2012, this volume] consistently showed compressional kinematics with E-W oriented reverse nodal planes. This sector of the Po Plain is known as a region characterized by slow deformation rates due to the northwards motion of the northern Apennines fold-and-thrust belt, which is buried beneath the sedimentary cover of the Po Plain [Picotti and Pazzaglia 2008, Toscani et al. 2009]. Early global positioning system (GPS measurements [Serpelloni et al. 2006] and the most recent updates [Devoti et al. 2011, Bennett et al. 2012] recognized that less than 2 mm/yr of SW-NE shortening are accommodated across this sector of the Po Plain, in agreement with other present-day stress indicators [Montone et al. 2012] and known active faults [Basili et al. 2008]. In the present study, we describe the GPS data used to study the coseismic deformation related to the May 20 and 29 mainshocks, and provide preliminary models of the two seismic sources, as inverted from consensus GPS coseismic deformation fields. […

  5. Managing Event Information Modeling, Retrieval, and Applications

    CERN Document Server

    Gupta, Amarnath

    2011-01-01

    With the proliferation of citizen reporting, smart mobile devices, and social media, an increasing number of people are beginning to generate information about events they observe and participate in. A significant fraction of this information contains multimedia data to share the experience with their audience. A systematic information modeling and management framework is necessary to capture this widely heterogeneous, schemaless, potentially humongous information produced by many different people. This book is an attempt to examine the modeling, storage, querying, and applications of such an

  6. Observations of ozone depletion associated with solar proton events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mcpeters, R. D.; Jackman, C. H.; Stassinopoulos, E. G.

    1981-01-01

    Ozone profiles from the solar proton events (SPE) of January and September 1971 and August 1972 were obtained after the backscattered ultraviolet (BUV) measured radiances were corrected for the direct effects of protons on the instrument. The SPE of August 1972 produced an ozone depletion of 15% at 42 km that persisted for one month in both northern and southern polar regions. This long recovery time indicates that NO(x) was produced in a quantity sufficient to alter the ozone chemistry. The two SPE in 1971 were of moderate size, but produced ozone depletions of 10-30% at 50 km with a 36 hour recovery time. This rapid recovery is consistent with the assumption that HO(x) is responsible for altering the ozone chemistry (Weeks et al., 1972). The magnitude of the observed depletion, however, exceeds that predicted by the chemical models.

  7. An evaluation study of WRF-ARW model with observations during a usual low pressure system over eastern Mediterranean area (Greece) and comparison of the results with an extreme weather event

    Science.gov (United States)

    Emmanouil, George; Vlachogiannis, Diamanto; Sfetsos, Athanasios; Karozis, Stelios; Tasopoulou, Antonia

    2016-04-01

    The accurate simulation of weather conditions is becoming more and more an issue of increased research interest and public demand. Because of the uncertainty in forecasting such phenomena, the investigation of the choice of a proper model configuration to simulate in a satisfactory way usual weather conditions, as well as extreme events is of crucial importance. In the framework of providing reliable weather forecasting, the WRF atmospheric model was employed to simulate the weather conditions during a usual for the area low pressure system that passed over the Greek peninsula during 2015 (September, 18-24). NCEP FNL analysis data were used for model input. The model configuration was setup to include three nested domains with increasing horizontal resolution inwards (11km, 2km and 0.5km respectively), centered in Attica area. The model parameterization was concluded following a number of sensitivity tests, previously carried out for other weather events including extremes in the same area, such as the Cleopatra cyclone. The main meteorological variables were analyzed and evaluation of the results was performed against in-situ measurements by the network of the Hellenic National Meteorological Service stations. The comparison of the September low-pressure event and the Cleopatra case study model results in temperature showed good agreement with the observations in both cases. Study of the precipitation fields yielded significant improvement compared to the analysis data of the NCEP FNL and the comparison between the model results and observed values was found to be good locally at some stations. The overall conclusion was that the model parameterization and applied methodology proved to be an efficient and useful tool for studying and forecasting such events.

  8. Measurement of Underlying Event Observables with the ATLAS detector

    CERN Document Server

    Astalos, Robert; The ATLAS collaboration

    2017-01-01

    The modelling of the Underlying Event (UE) is a crucial component in the complete description of both soft and hard QCD processes at hadron colliders. The ATLAS collaboration presents new results on the number and transversemomentum sum of charged particles as a function of the leading high pT track in events taken at a center of mass energy of 13 TeV. These results are presented in regions towards, transverse, and away from the leading track and allow to test the modelling of the Underlying Event in modern MC generators. Furthermore, eventshape variables based on charged particles have been measured in Z-events at 7 TeV and have been compared with the predictions of different stateoftheart MC generators. These measurements test the Underlying Event in a complementary way.

  9. Observable consequences of event-by-event fluctuations of HBT radii

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plumberg, Christopher; Heinz, Ulrich

    2016-12-01

    We explore the effects of event-by-event fluctuations of Hanbury Brown-Twiss (HBT) radii and show how they can be observed experimentally. The relation of measured HBT radii extracted from ensemble-averaged correlation functions to the mean of their event-by-event probability distribution is clarified. We propose a method to experimentally determine the mean and variance of this distribution and test it on an ensemble of fluctuating events generated with the viscous hydrodynamic code VISH2+1. Using the same code, the sensitivity of the mean and variance of the HBT radii to the specific QGP shear viscosity η / s is studied. We report sensitivity of the mean pion HBT radii and their variances to the temperature dependence of η / s near the quark-hadron transition at a level similar (10-20%) to that which was previously observed for elliptic and quadrangular flow of charged hadrons [1].

  10. The observation of exoplanet transit events in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fang X.-S.

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available We have carried out a research project on the exoplanet transit events at Yunnan Observatory. By using CCD cameras attached to 1m telescope of Yunnan Observatory and 85cm telescope of Xinglong station, NAOC, a group of exoplanet systems with transit events have been observed photometrically. By means of MCMC method, the preliminary results of the systems WASP-11 and XO-2 are derived. Finally, we give out the future plan on this research topic in China.

  11. Applications of Event-by-Event Fission Modeling with FREYA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vogt R.

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available The recently developed code FREYA (Fission Reaction Event Yield Algorithm generates large samples of complete fission events, consisting of two receding product nuclei as well as a number of neutrons and photons, all with complete kinematic information. Thus it is possible to calculate arbitrary correlation observables whose behavior may provide unique insight into the fission process. We first discuss the present status of FREYA, which has now been extended to include spontaneous fission. Concentrating on 239Pu(nth,f, 240Pu(sf and 252Cf(sf, we discuss the neutron multiplicity correlations, the dependence of the neutron energy spectrum on the neutron multiplicity, and the relationship between the fragment kinetic energy and the number of neutrons and their energies. We also suggest novel fission observables that could be measured with modern detectors.

  12. Modeling admissible behavior using event signals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pinzon, Luz; Jafari, Mohsen A; Hanisch, Hans-Michael; Zhao, Peng

    2004-06-01

    We describe here how to obtain a model for the admissible behavior of a discrete event system that is represented by a safe Petri net (PN) model. The transitions of this PN model may be controllable or uncontrollable. Also given is a sequential specification which is modeled with a special state machine. Then, using the condition and event arcs of net condition/event systems, a combined model of plant and specification is obtained. We use only the structure of this combined model to develop a method which gives the admissible behavior of the system. Thus, we avoid the complexity of a complete state enumeration.

  13. Optimal Control of Discrete Event Systems under Partial Observation

    OpenAIRE

    Marchand, Hervé; Boivineau, Olivier; Lafortune, Stéphane

    2000-01-01

    We are interested in a new class of optimal control problems for Discrete Event Systems (DES). We adopt the formalism of supervisory control theory [12] and model the system as the marked language generated by a finite state machine (FSM). Our control problem follows the theory in [14] and is characterized by the presence of uncontrollable events, the notion of occurrence and control costs for events and a worst-case objective function. However, compared to the work in [14], we wish to take i...

  14. Individual Colorimetric Observer Model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuta Asano

    Full Text Available This study proposes a vision model for individual colorimetric observers. The proposed model can be beneficial in many color-critical applications such as color grading and soft proofing to assess ranges of color matches instead of a single average match. We extended the CIE 2006 physiological observer by adding eight additional physiological parameters to model individual color-normal observers. These eight parameters control lens pigment density, macular pigment density, optical densities of L-, M-, and S-cone photopigments, and λmax shifts of L-, M-, and S-cone photopigments. By identifying the variability of each physiological parameter, the model can simulate color matching functions among color-normal populations using Monte Carlo simulation. The variabilities of the eight parameters were identified through two steps. In the first step, extensive reviews of past studies were performed for each of the eight physiological parameters. In the second step, the obtained variabilities were scaled to fit a color matching dataset. The model was validated using three different datasets: traditional color matching, applied color matching, and Rayleigh matches.

  15. An EAS event observed in the early stage of development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barroso, S.L.C. [Centro Brasileiro de Pesquisas Fisicas, 22290-180 Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Beggio, P.C. [Laboratorio de Ciencias Matematicas, UENF, Campos de Goytacazes, RJ (Brazil); Carvalho, A.O. de; Chinellato, J.A.; Mariano, A.; Oliveira, R. de; Shibuya, E.H. [Instituto de Fisica ' Gleb Wataghin' /UNICAMP, 13083-970 Campinas, SP (Brazil)

    2008-01-15

    Since 1969 the experiments of Brazil-Japan Collaboration showed the occurrence of a series of events, showing a region with a high concentration of electromagnetic particles, surrounded by isolated and/or groups of showers. These events were named 'halo events' or 'super-families'. Currently, we have more than a dozen of such events. The first of them, due to its aspect, was named 'Andromeda'. We present here the main characteristics of a similar halo event, named C21S087I075. It has a halo region with many high energy showers in its border. Other small energy showers spread over the central and surrounding blocks (S088, S100, S101, I074). These isolated showers, classified as of hadronic or electromagnetic origin, present a fractional energy distribution compatible with that of a Centauro candidate event (C16S087I037), reported at this symposium [S.L.C. Barroso, P.C. Beggio, J.A. Chinellato, A.O. Carvalho, A. Mariano, R. Oliveira, E.H. Shibuya, in this issue of XIV ISVHECRI]. Moreover, the lateral distribution in the halo region is similar to that observed in other 3 halo events.

  16. Ultraviolet and optical observations of tidal disruption events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gezari S.

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Tidal disruption events are expected to produce a luminous flare of radiation from fallback accretion of tidally disrupted stellar debris onto the central supermassive black hole. The first convincing candidates for tidal disruption events were discovered in the soft X-rays: large-amplitude, luminous, extremely-soft X-ray flares from inactive galaxies in the ROSAT All-Sky survey. However, the sparsely sampled light curves and lack of multiwavelength observations for these candidates make it difficult to directly constrain the parameters of their events (e.g., Eddington ratio, mass of the black hole, type of star disrupted. Here I present a review of the recent progress made in studying tidal disruption events in detail from taking advantage of wide-field, multi-epoch observations of UV and optical surveys (GALEX, SDSS, PTF, Pan-STARRS1 to measure well-sampled light curves, trigger prompt multiwavelength follow-up observations, and measure rates. I conclude with the promising potential of the next generation of optical synoptic surveys, such as LSST, to probe black hole demographics with samples of thousands of tidal disruption events.

  17. Geomagnetic Observations and Models

    CERN Document Server

    Mandea, Mioara

    2011-01-01

    This volume provides comprehensive and authoritative coverage of all the main areas linked to geomagnetic field observation, from instrumentation to methodology, on ground or near-Earth. Efforts are also focused on a 21st century e-Science approach to open access to all geomagnetic data, but also to the data preservation, data discovery, data rescue, and capacity building. Finally, modeling magnetic fields with different internal origins, with their variation in space and time, is an attempt to draw together into one place the traditional work in producing models as IGRF or describing the magn

  18. The role of VHE muons in an explanation of unusual events observed in cosmic rays

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bogdanov, AG; Petrukhin, AA; Shalabaeva, AV

    2005-01-01

    Unusual events observed in cosmic-ray experiments that cannot be explained in the context of modern theories and models are considered. The peculiarities of VHE (>= 100 TeV) muon interactions and their possible contribution to the production of various unusual events in cosmic rays are analyzed. Som

  19. AGILE Observations of the Gravitational-wave Event GW150914

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tavani, M.; Pittori, C.; Verrecchia, F.; Bulgarelli, A.; Giuliani, A.; Donnarumma, I.; Argan, A.; Trois, A.; Lucarelli, F.; Marisaldi, M.; Del Monte, E.; Evangelista, Y.; Fioretti, V.; Zoli, A.; Piano, G.; Munar-Adrover, P.; Antonelli, L. A.; Barbiellini, G.; Caraveo, P.; Cattaneo, P. W.; Costa, E.; Feroci, M.; Ferrari, A.; Longo, F.; Mereghetti, S.; Minervini, G.; Morselli, A.; Pacciani, L.; Pellizzoni, A.; Picozza, P.; Pilia, M.; Rappoldi, A.; Sabatini, S.; Vercellone, S.; Vittorini, V.; Giommi, P.; Colafrancesco, S.; Cardillo, M.; Galli, M.; Fuschino, F.

    2016-07-01

    We report the results of an extensive search through the AGILE data for a gamma-ray counterpart to the LIGO gravitational-wave (GW) event GW150914. Currently in spinning mode, AGILE has the potential of cover 80% of the sky with its gamma-ray instrument, more than 100 times a day. It turns out that AGILE came within a minute of the event time of observing the accessible GW150914 localization region. Interestingly, the gamma-ray detector exposed ∼65% of this region during the 100 s time intervals centered at ‑100 and +300 s from the event time. We determine a 2σ flux upper limit in the band 50 MeV–10 GeV, UL = 1.9 × 10‑8 erg cm‑2 s‑1, obtained ∼300 s after the event. The timing of this measurement is the fastest ever obtained for GW150914, and significantly constrains the electromagnetic emission of a possible high-energy counterpart. We also carried out a search for a gamma-ray precursor and delayed emission over five timescales ranging from minutes to days: in particular, we obtained an optimal exposure during the interval ‑150/‑30 s. In all these observations, we do not detect a significant signal associated with GW150914. We do not reveal the weak transient source reported by Fermi-GBM 0.4 s after the event time. However, even though a gamma-ray counterpart of the GW150914 event was not detected, the prospects for future AGILE observations of GW sources are decidedly promising.

  20. Event models and the fan effect.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Radvansky, G A; O'Rear, Andrea E; Fisher, Jerry S

    2017-08-01

    The current study explored the persistence of event model organizations and how this influences the experience of interference during retrieval. People in this study memorized lists of sentences about objects in locations, such as "The potted palm is in the hotel." Previous work has shown that such information can either be stored in separate event models, thereby producing retrieval interference, or integrated into common event models, thereby eliminating retrieval interference. Unlike prior studies, the current work explored the impact of forgetting up to 2 weeks later on this pattern of performance. We explored three possible outcomes across the various retention intervals. First, consistent with research showing that longer delays reduce proactive and retroactive interference, any retrieval interference effects of competing event models could be reduced over time. Second, the binding of information into events models may weaken over time, causing interference effects to emerge when they had previously been absent. Third, and finally, the organization of information into event models could remain stable over long periods of time. The results reported here are most consistent with the last outcome. While there were some minor variations across the various retention intervals, the basic pattern of event model organization remained preserved over the two-week retention period.

  1. Semiparametric time-to-event modeling in the presence of a latent progression event.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rice, John D; Tsodikov, Alex

    2017-06-01

    In cancer research, interest frequently centers on factors influencing a latent event that must precede a terminal event. In practice it is often impossible to observe the latent event precisely, making inference about this process difficult. To address this problem, we propose a joint model for the unobserved time to the latent and terminal events, with the two events linked by the baseline hazard. Covariates enter the model parametrically as linear combinations that multiply, respectively, the hazard for the latent event and the hazard for the terminal event conditional on the latent one. We derive the partial likelihood estimators for this problem assuming the latent event is observed, and propose a profile likelihood-based method for estimation when the latent event is unobserved. The baseline hazard in this case is estimated nonparametrically using the EM algorithm, which allows for closed-form Breslow-type estimators at each iteration, bringing improved computational efficiency and stability compared with maximizing the marginal likelihood directly. We present simulation studies to illustrate the finite-sample properties of the method; its use in practice is demonstrated in the analysis of a prostate cancer data set. © 2016, The International Biometric Society.

  2. Observation of a rare cosmic ray event at mountain altitude

    Science.gov (United States)

    Basu, Basudhara; Raha, Sibaji; Saha, Swapan K.; Biswas, Sukumar; Dey, Sandhya; Maulik, Atanu; Mazumdar, Amal; Saha, Satyajit; Syam, Debapriyo

    2015-02-01

    Existence of strangelets in cosmic rays has been predicted even at mountain altitudes ∼ 3-4 km with extremely low abundance. We exposed an appropriate passive detector to cosmic rays at Darjeeling, India, at an atmospheric pressure of 765 hPa, as a pilot study to determine its suitability for the detection of strangelets in a large area detector array through long-term exposure. During the analysis we found a highly unusual event consisting of a cluster of six identical nuclear tracks. We argue that even the most mundane explanation of this event requires unusual physics, the first possible observation of multifragmentation involving cosmic rays.

  3. Model-Based Event Detection in Wireless Sensor Networks

    CERN Document Server

    Gupchup, Jayant; Burns, Randal; Szalay, Alex

    2009-01-01

    In this paper we present an application of techniques from statistical signal processing to the problem of event detection in wireless sensor networks used for environmental monitoring. The proposed approach uses the well-established Principal Component Analysis (PCA) technique to build a compact model of the observed phenomena that is able to capture daily and seasonal trends in the collected measurements. We then use the divergence between actual measurements and model predictions to detect the existence of discrete events within the collected data streams. Our preliminary results show that this event detection mechanism is sensitive enough to detect the onset of rain events using the temperature modality of a wireless sensor network.

  4. Hierarchical Context Modeling for Video Event Recognition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xiaoyang; Ji, Qiang

    2016-10-11

    Current video event recognition research remains largely target-centered. For real-world surveillance videos, targetcentered event recognition faces great challenges due to large intra-class target variation, limited image resolution, and poor detection and tracking results. To mitigate these challenges, we introduced a context-augmented video event recognition approach. Specifically, we explicitly capture different types of contexts from three levels including image level, semantic level, and prior level. At the image level, we introduce two types of contextual features including the appearance context features and interaction context features to capture the appearance of context objects and their interactions with the target objects. At the semantic level, we propose a deep model based on deep Boltzmann machine to learn event object representations and their interactions. At the prior level, we utilize two types of prior-level contexts including scene priming and dynamic cueing. Finally, we introduce a hierarchical context model that systematically integrates the contextual information at different levels. Through the hierarchical context model, contexts at different levels jointly contribute to the event recognition. We evaluate the hierarchical context model for event recognition on benchmark surveillance video datasets. Results show that incorporating contexts in each level can improve event recognition performance, and jointly integrating three levels of contexts through our hierarchical model achieves the best performance.

  5. Patient death as a censoring event or competing risk event in models of nursing home placement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szychowski, Jeff M; Roth, David L; Clay, Olivio J; Mittelman, Mary S

    2010-02-10

    Participant death is often observed in studies that examine predictors of events, such as hospitalization or institutionalization, in older adult populations. The Cox proportional hazards modeling of the target event, whereby death is treated as a censoring event, is the standard analysis in this competing risks situation. However, the assumption of noninformative censoring applied to a frequently occurring competing event like death may be invalid and complicate interpretation in terms of the probability of the event. Multiple cause-specific hazard (CSH) models can be estimated, but ambiguities may arise when interpreting covariate effects across multiple CSH models and in terms of the cumulative incidence function (CIF). Alternatively, one can model the proportional hazards of the subdistribution of the CIF and evaluate the covariate effects on the CIF directly. We examine and compare these two approaches with nursing home (NH) placement data from a randomized controlled trial of a counseling and support intervention for spouse-caregivers of patients with Alzheimer's disease. CSHs for NH placement (where death is treated as a censoring event) and death (where NH placement is treated as a censoring event) and subdistribution hazards of the CIF for NH placement are modeled separately. In the presence of multiple covariates, the intervention effect is significant in both approaches, but the interpretation of the covariate effects requires joint evaluation of all estimated models.

  6. Event Modeling in UML. Unified Modeling Language and Unified Process

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bækgaard, Lars

    2002-01-01

    We show how events can be modeled in terms of UML. We view events as change agents that have consequences and as information objects that represent information. We show how to create object-oriented structures that represent events in terms of attributes, associations, operations, state charts......, and messages. We outline a run-time environment for the processing of events with multiple participants....

  7. Events per variable for risk differences and relative risks using pseudo-observations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Stefan Nygaard; Andersen, Per Kragh; Parner, Erik Thorlund

    2014-01-01

    been computed, can be fitted using standard generalized estimating equation software. Regression models can however yield problematic results if the number of covariates is large in relation to the number of events observed. Guidelines of events per variable are often used in practice. These rules...... of thumb for the number of events per variable have primarily been established based on simulation studies for the logistic regression model and Cox regression model. In this paper we conduct a simulation study to examine the small sample behavior of the pseudo-observation method to estimate risk...... differences and relative risks for right-censored data. We investigate how coverage probabilities and relative bias of the pseudo-observation estimator interact with sample size, number of variables and average number of events per variable....

  8. Observing Episodic Coronal Heating Events Rooted in Chromospheric Activity

    CERN Document Server

    McIntosh, Scott W

    2009-01-01

    We present results of a multi-wavelength study of episodic plasma injection into the corona of AR 10942. We exploit long-exposure images of the Hinode and Transition Region and Coronal Explorer (TRACE) spacecraft to study the properties of faint, episodic, "blobs" of plasma that are propelled upward along coronal loops that are rooted in the AR plage. We find that the source location and characteristic velocities of these episodic upflow events match those expected from recent spectroscopic observations of faint coronal upflows that are associated with upper chromospheric activity, in the form of highly dynamic spicules. The analysis presented ties together observations from coronal and chromospheric spectrographs and imagers, providing more evidence of the connection of discrete coronal mass heating and injection events with their source, dynamic spicules, in the chromosphere.

  9. Heinrich events modeled in transient glacial simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ziemen, Florian; Kapsch, Marie; Mikolajewicz, Uwe

    2017-04-01

    Heinrich events are among the most prominent events of climate variability recorded in proxies across the northern hemisphere. They are the archetype of ice sheet — climate interactions on millennial time scales. Nevertheless, the exact mechanisms that cause Heinrich events are still under debate, and their climatic consequences are far from being fully understood. We address open questions by studying Heinrich events in a coupled ice sheet model (ISM) atmosphere-ocean-vegetation general circulation model (AOVGCM) framework, where this variability occurs as part of the model generated internal variability. The framework consists of a northern hemisphere setup of the modified Parallel Ice Sheet Model (mPISM) coupled to the global AOVGCM ECHAM5/MPIOM/LPJ. The simulations were performed fully coupled and with transient orbital and greenhouse gas forcing. They span from several millennia before the last glacial maximum into the deglaciation. To make these long simulations feasible, the atmosphere is accelerated by a factor of 10 relative to the other model components using a periodical-synchronous coupling technique. To disentangle effects of the Heinrich events and the deglaciation, we focus on the events occurring before the deglaciation. The modeled Heinrich events show a peak ice discharge of about 0.05 Sv and raise the sea level by 2.3 m on average. The resulting surface water freshening reduces the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and ocean heat release. The reduction in ocean heat release causes a sub-surface warming and decreases the air temperature and precipitation regionally and downstream into Eurasia. The surface elevation decrease of the ice sheet enhances moisture transport onto the ice sheet and thus increases precipitation over the Hudson Bay area, thereby accelerating the recovery after an event.

  10. Fermi GBM Observations of LIGO Gravitational Wave event GW150914

    CERN Document Server

    Connaughton, V; Goldstein, A; Briggs, M S; Zhang, B -B; Hui, C M; Jenke, P; Racusin, J; Wilson-Hodge, C A; Bhat, P N; Cleveland, W; Fitzpatrick, G; Giles, M M; Gibby, M H; Greiner, J; von Kienlin, A; Kippen, R M; McBreen, S; Mailyan, B; Meegan, C A; Paciesas, W S; Preece, R D; Roberts, O; Sparke, L; Stanbro, M; Toelge, K; Veres, P; Yu, H -F; authors, other

    2016-01-01

    With an instantaneous view of 70% of the sky, the Fermi Gamma-ray Burst Monitor (GBM) is an excellent partner in the search for electromagnetic counterparts to gravitational wave (GW) events. GBM observations at the time of the Laser Interferometer Gravitational-wave Observatory (LIGO)event GW150914 reveal the presence of a weak transient source above 50 keV, 0.4 s after the GW event was detected, with a false alarm probability of 0.0022. This weak transient lasting 1 s does not appear connected with other previously known astrophysical, solar, terrestrial, or magnetospheric activity. Its localization is ill-constrained but consistent with the direction of GW150914. The duration and spectrum of the transient event suggest it is a weak short Gamma-Ray Burst arriving at a large angle to the direction in which Fermi was pointing, where the GBM detector response is not optimal. If the GBM transient is associated with GW150914, this electromagnetic signal from a stellar mass black hole binary merger is unexpected....

  11. AGILE Observations of the Gravitational Wave Event GW150914

    CERN Document Server

    Tavani, M; Verrecchia, F; Bulgarelli, A; Giuliani, A; Donnarumma, I; Argan, A; Trois, A; Lucarelli, F; Marisaldi, M; Del Monte, E; Evangelista, Y; Fioretti, V; Zoli, A; Piano, G; Munar-Adrover, P; Antonelli, L A; Barbiellini, G; Caraveo, P; Cattaneo, P W; Costa, E; Feroci, M; Ferrari, A; Longo, F; Mereghetti, S; Minervini, G; Morselli, A; Pacciani, L; Pellizzoni, A; Picozza, P; Pilia, M; Rappoldi, A; Sabatini, S; Vercellone, S; Vittorini, V; Giommi, P; Colafrancesco, S; Cardillo, M

    2016-01-01

    We report the results of an extensive search in the AGILE data for a gamma-ray counterpart of the LIGO gravitational wave event GW150914. Currently in spinning mode, AGILE has the potential of covering with its gamma-ray instrument 80 % of the sky more than 100 times a day. It turns out that AGILE came within a minute from the event time of observing the accessible GW150914 localization region. Interestingly, the gamma-ray detector exposed about 65 % of this region during the 100 s time intervals centered at -100 s and +300 s from the event time. We determine a 2-sigma flux upper limit in the band 50 MeV - 10 GeV, $UL = 1.9 \\times 10^{-8} \\rm \\, erg \\, cm^{-2} \\, s^{-1}$ obtained about 300 s after the event. The timing of this measurement is the fastest ever obtained for GW150914, and significantly constrains the electromagnetic emission of a possible high-energy counterpart. We also carried out a search for a gamma-ray precursor and delayed emission over timescales ranging from minutes to days: in particular...

  12. First observation of parallax in a gravitational microlensing event

    CERN Document Server

    Alcock, C B; Alves, D R; Axelrod, T S; Bennett, D P; Cook, K H; Freeman, K C; Griest, K; Guern, J A; Lehner, M J; Marshall, S L; Peterson, B A; Pratt, M R; Quinn, P J; Rodgers, A W; Stubbs, C W; Sutherland, W

    1995-01-01

    We present the first detection of parallax effects in a gravitational microlensing event. Parallax in a gravitational microlensing event observed only from the Earth appears as a distortion of the lightcurve due to the motion of the Earth around the Sun. This distortion can be detected if the event duration is not much less than a year and if the projected velocity of the lens is not much larger than the orbital velocity of the Earth about the Sun. The event presented here has a duration of 220 days and clearly shows the distortion due to the Earth's motion. We find that the projected velocity of the lens is 75+/-5 km/s at an angle of 28+/-4 deg from the direction of increasing galactic longitude, as expected for a lens in the galactic disk. A likelihood analysis yields estimates of the distance to and mass of the lens: D_{lens} = 1.7 (+1.1/-0.7) kpc and M = 1.3 (+1.3/-0.6) Msun, suggesting that the lens is a remnant such as a white dwarf or neutron star. A less likely possibility is that the lens is a main s...

  13. Analysing adverse events by time-to-event models: the CLEOPATRA study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Proctor, Tanja; Schumacher, Martin

    2016-07-01

    When analysing primary and secondary endpoints in a clinical trial with patients suffering from a chronic disease, statistical models for time-to-event data are commonly used and accepted. This is in contrast to the analysis of data on adverse events where often only a table with observed frequencies and corresponding test statistics is reported. An example is the recently published CLEOPATRA study where a three-drug regimen is compared with a two-drug regimen in patients with HER2-positive first-line metastatic breast cancer. Here, as described earlier, primary and secondary endpoints (progression-free and overall survival) are analysed using time-to-event models, whereas adverse events are summarized in a simple frequency table, although the duration of study treatment differs substantially. In this paper, we demonstrate the application of time-to-event models to first serious adverse events using the data of the CLEOPATRA study. This will cover the broad range between a simple incidence rate approach over survival and competing risks models (with death as a competing event) to multi-state models. We illustrate all approaches by means of graphical displays highlighting the temporal dynamics and compare the obtained results. For the CLEOPATRA study, the resulting hazard ratios are all in the same order of magnitude. But the use of time-to-event models provides valuable and additional information that would potentially be overlooked by only presenting incidence proportions. These models adequately address the temporal dynamics of serious adverse events as well as death of patients. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  14. Estimating inter-event time distributions from finite observation periods in communication networks

    CERN Document Server

    Kivelä, Mikko

    2014-01-01

    A diverse variety of processes --- including recurrent disease episodes, neuron firing, and communication patterns among humans --- can be described using inter-event time (IET) distributions. Many such processes are ongoing, although event sequences are only available during a finite observation window. Because the observation time window is more likely to begin or end during long IETs than during short ones, the analysis of such data is susceptible to a bias induced by the finite observation period. In this paper, we illustrate how this length bias is born and how it can be corrected. To do this, we model event sequences using stationary renewal processes, and we formulate simple heuristics for determining the severity of the bias. To illustrate our results, we focus on the example of empirical communication networks, which are temporal networks that are constructed from communication events. The IET distributions of such systems guide efforts to build models of human behavior, and the variance of IETs is v...

  15. Analysis hierarchical model for discrete event systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ciortea, E. M.

    2015-11-01

    The This paper presents the hierarchical model based on discrete event network for robotic systems. Based on the hierarchical approach, Petri network is analysed as a network of the highest conceptual level and the lowest level of local control. For modelling and control of complex robotic systems using extended Petri nets. Such a system is structured, controlled and analysed in this paper by using Visual Object Net ++ package that is relatively simple and easy to use, and the results are shown as representations easy to interpret. The hierarchical structure of the robotic system is implemented on computers analysed using specialized programs. Implementation of hierarchical model discrete event systems, as a real-time operating system on a computer network connected via a serial bus is possible, where each computer is dedicated to local and Petri model of a subsystem global robotic system. Since Petri models are simplified to apply general computers, analysis, modelling, complex manufacturing systems control can be achieved using Petri nets. Discrete event systems is a pragmatic tool for modelling industrial systems. For system modelling using Petri nets because we have our system where discrete event. To highlight the auxiliary time Petri model using transport stream divided into hierarchical levels and sections are analysed successively. Proposed robotic system simulation using timed Petri, offers the opportunity to view the robotic time. Application of goods or robotic and transmission times obtained by measuring spot is obtained graphics showing the average time for transport activity, using the parameters sets of finished products. individually.

  16. An event-based model for contracts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tiziana Cimoli

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available We introduce a basic model for contracts. Our model extends event structures with a new relation, which faithfully captures the circular dependencies among contract clauses. We establish whether an agreement exists which respects all the contracts at hand (i.e. all the dependencies can be resolved, and we detect the obligations of each participant. The main technical contribution is a correspondence between our model and a fragment of the contract logic PCL. More precisely, we show that the reachable events are exactly those which correspond to provable atoms in the logic. Despite of this strong correspondence, our model improves previous work on PCL by exhibiting a finer-grained notion of culpability, which takes into account the legitimate orderings of events.

  17. Concurrent Scheduling of Event-B Models

    CERN Document Server

    Boström, Pontus; Sere, Kaisa; Waldén, Marina; 10.4204/EPTCS.55.11

    2011-01-01

    Event-B is a refinement-based formal method that has been shown to be useful in developing concurrent and distributed programs. Large models can be decomposed into sub-models that can be refined semi-independently and executed in parallel. In this paper, we show how to introduce explicit control flow for the concurrent sub-models in the form of event schedules. We explore how schedules can be designed so that their application results in a correctness-preserving refinement step. For practical application, two patterns for schedule introduction are provided, together with their associated proof obligations. We demonstrate our method by applying it on the dining philosophers problem.

  18. Modeling of ESD events from polymeric surfaces

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pfeifer, Kent Bryant

    2014-03-01

    Transient electrostatic discharge (ESD) events are studied to assemble a predictive model of discharge from polymer surfaces. An analog circuit simulation is produced and its response is compared to various literature sources to explore its capabilities and limitations. Results suggest that polymer ESD events can be predicted to within an order of magnitude. These results compare well to empirical findings from other sources having similar reproducibility.

  19. Modeling and simulation of discrete event systems

    CERN Document Server

    Choi, Byoung Kyu

    2013-01-01

    Computer modeling and simulation (M&S) allows engineers to study and analyze complex systems. Discrete-event system (DES)-M&S is used in modern management, industrial engineering, computer science, and the military. As computer speeds and memory capacity increase, so DES-M&S tools become more powerful and more widely used in solving real-life problems. Based on over 20 years of evolution within a classroom environment, as well as on decades-long experience in developing simulation-based solutions for high-tech industries, Modeling and Simulation of Discrete-Event Systems is the only book on

  20. Observed Low Ozone Events in Coastal Antarctica - The Critical Role of Meteorology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, A. E.; Wolff, E. W.; Anderson, P. S.; Turner, J.; Rankin, A. M.

    2004-12-01

    Episodic loss of tropospheric ozone has been observed in both polar regions. The destruction of ozone appears to be associated with halogen chemistry, generally accepted as being driven by bromine released from sea ice surfaces. Since March 2003, measurements of surface ozone have been made at the British Antarctic Survey Clean Air Sector Laboratory (CASLab) at Halley station in coastal Antarctica. Detailed measurements of boundary layer meteorology as well as standard meteorology are also measured at the CASLab. Combining the data allows us to probe the role of meteorology in these "low ozone events". Low ozone events are observed at Halley on numerous occasions during Antarctic spring; on occasions the development of the event and its recovery are strongly associated with the build-up and decline of a stable boundary layer; on occasions, extremely rapid loss of ozone is observed (loss of 20ppbv in 3 minutes on one occasion) which are associated with larger scale transport. We report here on the events recorded during spring 2003, and show the critical influence of meteorology. The association suggests that the role of meteorology must be considered when striving to understand the mechanisms controlling observed low ozone events, and hence extremely good meteorology will need to be included in any modeling calculations trying to reproduce observed events.

  1. 2014 ebola outbreak: media events track changes in observed reproductive number.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Majumder, Maimuna S; Kluberg, Sheryl; Santillana, Mauricio; Mekaru, Sumiko; Brownstein, John S

    2015-04-28

    In this commentary, we consider the relationship between early outbreak changes in the observed reproductive number of Ebola in West Africa and various media reported interventions and aggravating events. We find that media reports of interventions that provided education, minimized contact, or strengthened healthcare were typically followed by sustained transmission reductions in both Sierra Leone and Liberia. Meanwhile, media reports of aggravating events generally preceded temporary transmission increases in both countries. Given these preliminary findings, we conclude that media reported events could potentially be incorporated into future epidemic modeling efforts to improve mid-outbreak case projections.

  2. The Amplitude-Duration Relation of Observed El Nifio Events

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Wu Yu-Jie; DUAN Wan-Suo

    2012-01-01

    The authors demonstrate that the E1 Nifio events in the pre- and post-1976 periods show two ampli- tude-duration relations. One is that the stronger E1 Nifio events have longer durations, which is robust for the moderate E1 Nifio events; the other is that the stronger E1 Nifio events have shorter durations but for strong E1 Nifio events. By estimating the sign and amplitude of the nonlinear dynamical heating (NDH) anomalies, the au- thors illustrate that the NDH anomalies are negligible for moderate E1 Nifio events but large for strong E1 Nifio events. In particular, the large NDH anomalies for strong E1 Nifio events are positive during the growth and mature phases, which favor warmer E1 Nifio events. During the decay phase, however, the negative NDH anomalies start to arise and become increasingly significant with the evolution of the E1 Nifio events, in which the negative NDH anomalies dampen the sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) and cause the E1 Nifio events to reach the SST normal state earlier. This pattern suggests that the nonlinearity tends to increase the intensities of strong E1 Nifio events and shorten their duration, which, together with the previous results showing a positive correlation between the strength of E1 Nifio events and the signifi- cance of the effect of nonlinear advection on the events (especially the suppression of nonlinearity on the SSTA during the decay phase), shows that the strong E1 Nifio events tend to have the amplitude-duration relation of the stronger E1 Nifio events with shorter durations. This result also lends support to the assertion that moderate E1 Nifio events possess the amplitude-duration relation of stronger E1 Nifio events with longer durations.

  3. Shelter models and observations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Peña, Alfredo; Bechmann, Andreas; Conti, Davide;

    This report documents part of the work performed by work package (WP) 3 of the ‘Online WAsP’ project funded by the Danish Energy Technology and Demonstration Program (EUDP). WP3 initially identified the shortcomings of the current WAsP engine for small and medium wind turbines (Peña et al., 2014b...... in the wake of a fence. The experiment is the basis of the study of the error and uncertainty of the obstacle models....

  4. Narrow-band ELF events observed from South Pole Station

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heavisides, J.; Weaver, C.; Lessard, M.; Weatherwax, A. T.

    2012-12-01

    Extremely Low Frequency (ELF) waves are typically in the range of 3 Hz - 3 kHz and can play a role in acceleration and pitch-angle scattering of energetic particles in the radiation belts. Observations of a not uncommon, but not well studied ELF phenomenon are presented with ground-based data from South Pole Station. The narrow-band waves last approximately one or two minutes maintaining bandwidth over the course of the event, begin around 100 Hz, decrease to about 70 Hz, and typically show a higher frequency harmonic. The waves have only been documented at four locations - Heacock, 1974 (Alaska); Sentman and Ehring, 1994 (California); Wang et al, 2005 and Wang et al, 2011 (Taiwan); and Kim et al, 2006 (South Pole). The waves observed at the South Pole are not detected when the Sun drops below a 10 degree elevation angle, which is not true for the other locations. We extend the study of Kim et al, 2006, and explore possible generation mechanisms including sunlit ionosphere and ion cyclotron wave modes, as well as correspondence with energetic particle precipitation.

  5. Human event observations in the individual plant examinations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Forester, J. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    1995-04-01

    A major objective of the Individual Plant Examination Insights Program is to identify the important determinants of core damage frequency for the different reactor and containment types and plant designs as indicated in the IPEs. The human reliability analysis is a critical component of the probabilistic risk assessments which were done for the IPEs. The determination and selection of human actions for incorporation into the event and fault tree models and the quantification of their failure probabilities can have an important impact on the resulting estimates of CDF and risk. Two important goals of the NRCs IPE Insights Program are (1) to determine the extent to which human actions and their corresponding failure probabilities influenced the results of the IPEs and (2) to identify which factors played significant roles in determining the differences and similarities in the results of the HRA analyses across the different plants. To obtain the relevant information, the NRC`s IPE database, which contains information on plant design, CDF, and containment performance obtained from the IPEs, was used in conjunction with a systematic examination of the HRA analyses and results from the IPEs. Regarding the extent to which the results of the HRA analyses were significant contributors to the plants` CDFs, examinations of several different measures indicated that while individual human actions could have important influences on CDF for particular initiators, the HRA results did not appear to be the most significant driver of plant risk. Another finding was that while there were relatively wide variations in the calculated human error probabilities for similar events across plants, there was no evidence for any systematic variation as a function of the HRA methods used in the analyses. Much of the variability in HEP values can be explained by differences in plant characteristics and sequence-specific factors. Details of these results and other findings are discussed.

  6. Component-based event composition modeling for CPS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yin, Zhonghai; Chu, Yanan

    2017-06-01

    In order to combine event-drive model with component-based architecture design, this paper proposes a component-based event composition model to realize CPS’s event processing. Firstly, the formal representations of component and attribute-oriented event are defined. Every component is consisted of subcomponents and the corresponding event sets. The attribute “type” is added to attribute-oriented event definition so as to describe the responsiveness to the component. Secondly, component-based event composition model is constructed. Concept lattice-based event algebra system is built to describe the relations between events, and the rules for drawing Hasse diagram are discussed. Thirdly, as there are redundancies among composite events, two simplification methods are proposed. Finally, the communication-based train control system is simulated to verify the event composition model. Results show that the event composition model we have constructed can be applied to express composite events correctly and effectively.

  7. Recent Changes of Some Observed Climate Extreme Events in Kano

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Imole Ezekiel Gbode

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Observed rainfall and temperature data for the period 1960–2007 were used to examine recent changes of extreme climate over Kano, located in the Sahelian region of Nigeria. The RClimDex software package was employed to generate nine important climate indices as defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection, Monitoring and Indices (ETCCDMI. For the entire period, the results show a warming trend, an increased number of cool nights, more warm days, and a strong increase in the number of warm spells. The rainfall indices show a slight increase in annual total rainfall, a decrease in the maximum number of consecutive wet days, and a significant increase in the number of extremely wet days. Such changes in climate may result in an increasing demand for domestic energy for cooling and a higher evaporation rate from water bodies and irrigated crop. These findings may give some guidance to politicians and planners in how to best cope with these extreme weather and climate events.

  8. Characteristics of rainfall events in regional climate model simulations for the Czech Republic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Svoboda, Vojtěch; Hanel, Martin; Máca, Petr; Kyselý, Jan

    2017-02-01

    Characteristics of rainfall events in an ensemble of 23 regional climate model (RCM) simulations are evaluated against observed data in the Czech Republic for the period 1981-2000. Individual rainfall events are identified using the concept of minimum inter-event time (MIT) and only heavy events (15 % of events with the largest event depths) during the warm season (May-September) are considered. Inasmuch as an RCM grid box represents a spatial average, the effects of areal averaging of rainfall data on characteristics of events are investigated using the observed data. Rainfall events from the RCM simulations are then compared to those from the at-site and area-average observations. Simulated number of heavy events and seasonal total precipitation due to heavy events are on average represented relatively well despite the higher spatial variation compared to observations. RCM-simulated event depths are comparable to the area-average observations, while event durations are overestimated and other characteristics related to rainfall intensity are significantly underestimated. The differences between RCM-simulated and at-site observed rainfall event characteristics are in general dominated by the biases of the climate models rather than the areal-averaging effect. Most of the rainfall event characteristics in the majority of the RCM simulations show a similar altitude-dependence pattern as in the observed data. The number of heavy events and seasonal total precipitation due to heavy events increase with altitude, and this dependence is captured better by the RCM simulations with higher spatial resolution.

  9. Characteristics of Four Upward-Pointing Cosmic-Ray-like Events Observed with ANITA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gorham, P. W.; Nam, J.; Romero-Wolf, A.; Hoover, S.; Allison, P.; Banerjee, O.; Beatty, J. J.; Belov, K.; Besson, D. Z.; Binns, W. R.; Bugaev, V.; Cao, P.; Chen, C.; Chen, P.; Clem, J. M.; Connolly, A.; Dailey, B.; Deaconu, C.; Cremonesi, L.; Dowkontt, P. F.; Duvernois, M. A.; Field, R. C.; Fox, B. D.; Goldstein, D.; Gordon, J.; Hast, C.; Hebert, C. L.; Hill, B.; Hughes, K.; Hupe, R.; Israel, M. H.; Javaid, A.; Kowalski, J.; Lam, J.; Learned, J. G.; Liewer, K. M.; Liu, T. C.; Link, J. T.; Lusczek, E.; Matsuno, S.; Mercurio, B. C.; Miki, C.; Miočinović, P.; Mottram, M.; Mulrey, K.; Naudet, C. J.; Ng, J.; Nichol, R. J.; Palladino, K.; Rauch, B. F.; Reil, K.; Roberts, J.; Rosen, M.; Rotter, B.; Russell, J.; Ruckman, L.; Saltzberg, D.; Seckel, D.; Schoorlemmer, H.; Stafford, S.; Stockham, J.; Stockham, M.; Strutt, B.; Tatem, K.; Varner, G. S.; Vieregg, A. G.; Walz, D.; Wissel, S. A.; Wu, F.; Anita Collaboration

    2016-08-01

    We report on four radio-detected cosmic-ray (CR) or CR-like events observed with the Antarctic Impulsive Transient Antenna (ANITA), a NASA-sponsored long-duration balloon payload. Two of the four were previously identified as stratospheric CR air showers during the ANITA-I flight. A third stratospheric CR was detected during the ANITA-II flight. Here, we report on characteristics of these three unusual CR events, which develop nearly horizontally, 20-30 km above the surface of Earth. In addition, we report on a fourth steeply upward-pointing ANITA-I CR-like radio event which has characteristics consistent with a primary that emerged from the surface of the ice. This suggests a possible τ -lepton decay as the origin of this event, but such an interpretation would require significant suppression of the standard model τ -neutrino cross section.

  10. Modeling Events in the Lower Imperial Valley Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tian, X.; Wei, S.; Zhan, Z.; Fielding, E. J.; Helmberger, D. V.

    2010-12-01

    The Imperial Valley below the US-Mexican border has few seismic stations but many significant earthquakes. Many of these events, such as the recent El Mayor-Cucapah event, have complex mechanisms involving a mixture of strike-slip and normal slip patterns with now over 30 aftershocks with magnitude over 4.5. Unfortunately, many earthquake records from the Southern Imperial Valley display a great deal of complexity, ie., strong Rayleigh wave multipathing and extended codas. In short, regional recordings in the US are too complex to easily separate source properties from complex propagation. Fortunately, the Dec 30 foreshock (Mw=5.9) has excellent recordings teleseismically and regionally, and moreover is observed with InSAR. We use this simple strike-slip event to calibrate paths. In particular, we are finding record segments involving Pnl (including depth phases) and some surface waves (mostly Love waves) that appear well behaved, ie., can be approximated by synthetics from 1D local models and events modeled with the Cut-and-Paste (CAP) routine. Simple events can then be identified along with path calibration. Modeling the more complicated paths can be started with known mechanisms. We will report on both the aftershocks and historic events.

  11. Incremental System Modelling in Event-B

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hallerstede, Stefan

    2009-01-01

    the specification is the right one for the given requirements. Sometimes requirements also concern features of a system closely related to its implementation. This would make an abstract specification necessarily incomplete. We believe that it is better not to follow the rigid approach to modelling described above......A reasonable approach to formal modelling is to start with a specification that captures the requirements of a system and then use formal refinement to implement it. The problem with this approach is that for complex systems the specification itself is complex. It becomes a challenge to say whether....... Instead, we argue that the specification itself should be elaborated by refinement. Ultimately, the distinction between specification and implementation is no longer made in the strict sense above. There is only one model of the system that is connected by successive refinements. Using Event-B, we...

  12. Dust storm events over Delhi: verification of dust AOD forecasts with satellite and surface observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Aditi; Iyengar, Gopal R.; George, John P.

    2016-05-01

    Thar desert located in northwest part of India is considered as one of the major dust source. Dust storms originate in Thar desert during pre-monsoon season, affects large part of Indo-Gangetic plains. High dust loading causes the deterioration of the ambient air quality and degradation in visibility. Present study focuses on the identification of dust events and verification of the forecast of dust events over Delhi and western part of IG Plains, during the pre-monsoon season of 2015. Three dust events have been identified over Delhi during the study period. For all the selected days, Terra-MODIS AOD at 550 nm are found close to 1.0, while AURA-OMI AI shows high values. Dust AOD forecasts from NCMRWF Unified Model (NCUM) for the three selected dust events are verified against satellite (MODIS) and ground based observations (AERONET). Comparison of observed AODs at 550 nm from MODIS with NCUM predicted AODs reveals that NCUM is able to predict the spatial and temporal distribution of dust AOD, in these cases. Good correlation (~0.67) is obtained between the NCUM predicted dust AODs and location specific observations available from AERONET. Model under-predicted the AODs as compared to the AERONET observations. This may be mainly because the model account for only dust and no anthropogenic activities are considered. The results of the present study emphasize the requirement of more realistic representation of local dust emission in the model both of natural and anthropogenic origin, to improve the forecast of dust from NCUM during the dust events.

  13. Events related to lithosphere-atmosphere-ionosphere-magnetosphere coupling observed by DEMETER

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parrot, Michel; Hattori, Katsumi; Liu, Tiger; Namgaladze, Alexander; Ouzounov, Dimitar; Pulinets, Sergey; Tramutoli, Valerio

    2015-04-01

    There are several models of Lithosphere-Atmosphere-Ionosphere-Magnetosphere (LAIM) coupling to explain ionospheric perturbations which are observed prior to earthquakes. In 2013 an ISSI Team led by S. Pulinets (RU) and D. Ouzounov (US) started to work with the following aim: "Multi-instrument Space-Borne Observations and Validation of the Physical Model of the LAIM Coupling" (see http://www.issibern.ch/teams/spaceborneobserve/). In the frame of this model validation several events have been studied with the DEMETER satellite data. It concerns the effects of (i) the ancient natural nuclear reactor located at Oklo (Gabon), (ii) the sand storms in Sahara, (iii) the volcanic activity, (iv) the lightning activity, and (v) the hurricanes. The main signature of these events in the ionosphere will be shown in this presentation.

  14. Model of neutrino-induced multilepton events

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    De Rujula, A.; Georgi, H.; Glashow, S.L.

    1978-01-01

    We describe certain novel leptonic processes suggested by the ambidextrous model of weak interactions. Heavy charged leptons are occasionally produced by neutrinos or antineutrinos. They can decay via right-handed current-current couplings into a muon, a massive neutral lepton, and its antiparticle. Subsequent decay of the heavy neutrals yields from three to five final-state leptons. Same-sign (or ''symmetric'' opposite-sign) dimuon events are produced by an alternative decay mode of the heavy charged leptons.

  15. Constraints on Jupiters from observations of Galactic Bulge microlensing events during 2000

    CERN Document Server

    Tsapras, Y; Carson, R S; Alvarez-Mendez, J; Batcheldor, D; Graham, A W; James, P A; Knapen, J H; Quaintrell, H; González-Serrano, J I; Sørensen, P; Wooder, N; Tsapras, Yiannis; Horne, Keith; Carson, Richard; Alvarez, Javier Mendez; Batcheldor, Dan; Graham, Alister W.; James, Philip A.; Knapen, Johan; Quaintrell, Hannah; Serrano, Ignacio Gonzalez; Sorensen, Peter; Wooder, Nick

    2002-01-01

    We present observations of 8 Galactic Bulge microlensing events taken with the 1.0m JKT on La Palma during 2000 June and July. The JKT observing schedule was optimized using a prioritizing algorithm to automatically update the target list. For most of these events we have sampled the lightcurves at times where no information was available from the OGLE alert team. We assume a point-source point-lens (PSPL) model and perform a maximum likelihood fit to both our data and the OGLE data to constrain the event parameters of the fit. We then refit the data assuming a binary lens and proceed to calculate the probability of detecting planets with mass ratio $q=10^{-3}$. We have seen no clear signatures of planetary deviations on any of the 8 events and we quantify constraints on the presence of planetary companions to the lensing stars. For two well observed events, 2000BUL31 and 2000BUL33, our detection probabilities peak at $\\sim$30% and $\\sim$20% respectively for $q=10^{-3}$ and $a \\sim R_{E}$ for a $\\Delta\\chi^2$...

  16. Case studies of particle formation events observed in boreal forests: implications for nucleation mechanisms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Yu

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available Aerosol nucleation events observed worldwide may have significant climatic and health implications. However, the specific nucleation mechanisms remain ambiguous. Here, we report case studies of eight nucleation events observed during an intensive field campaign at a boreal forest site (Hyytiälä, Finland in spring 2005. The present analysis is based on comprehensive kinetic simulations using an ion-mediated nucleation (IMN model in which the key physical and chemical parameters are constrained by a variety of recent measurements. Out of the 22 days of the campaign on which nucleation events were observed, eight major events were selected for detailed analysis on the basis of indications that the observed air masses were relatively homogeneous. In most of these cases, reasonable agreement is found between IMN predictions and field data for a range of variables, including critical nucleation sizes, size-dependent overcharging ratios, and the concentrations of 1.8–3 nm stable clusters and 3–6 nm particles, and their diurnal variations. The possible reasons leading to substantial differences between observation and theory in some cases are also explored. Statistically, roughly 80% of the nucleation events recorded during the Hyytiälä campaign exhibited mean size-dependent particle overcharging ratios within the range of, or exceeding, those predicted by the IMN model, suggesting that ion nucleation processes were significant during these events. The nucleation rates calculated using the IMN modeling approach are contrasted with those predicted by other theories/models, and key differences between the results are discussed. In particular, it is concluded that the ion nucleation model originally developed by Lovejoy et al. (2004 significantly under-predicts ion nucleation rates, and cannot explain the new observations from Hyytiälä regarding the electrical properties of nanoparticles. We also show that, for the well documented conditions of

  17. Transition Region Explosive Events in He II 304Å: Observation and Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rust, Thomas; Kankelborg, Charles C.

    2016-05-01

    We present examples of transition region explosive events observed in the He II 304Å spectral line with the Multi Order Solar EUV Spectrograph (MOSES). With small (thermal (100-150 km/s) velocities these events satisfy the observational signatures of transition region explosive events. Derived line profiles show distinct blue and red velocity components with very little broadening of either component. We observe little to no emission from low velocity plasma, making the plasmoid instability reconnection model unlikely as the plasma acceleration mechanism for these events. Rather, the single speed, bi-directional jet characteristics suggested by these data are consistent with acceleration via Petschek reconnection.Observations were made during the first sounding rocket flight of MOSES in 2006. MOSES forms images in 3 orders of a concave diffraction grating. Multilayer coatings largely restrict the passband to the He II 303.8Å and Si XI 303.3Å spectral lines. The angular field of view is about 8.5'x17', or about 20% of the solar disk. These images constitute projections of the volume I(x,y,λ), the intensity as a function of sky plane position and wavelength. Spectral line profiles are recovered via tomographic inversion of these projections. Inversion is carried out using a multiplicative algebraic reconstruction technique.

  18. Observed and projected urban extreme rainfall events in India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ali, Haider; Mishra, Vimal; Pai, D. S.

    2014-11-01

    We examine changes in extreme rainfall indices over 57 major urban areas in India under the observed (1901-2010) and projected future climate (2010-2060). Between 1901 and 2010, only four out of the total 57 urban areas showed a significant (p-value urban areas experienced significant increases in the extreme rainfall indices for the different periods. Moreover, rainfall maxima for 1-10 day durations and at 100 year return period did not change significantly over the majority of urban areas in the post-1955 period. Results do not indicate any significant change (p > 0.05) in the pooled mean and distribution of the extreme rainfall indices for the pre- and post-1983 periods revealing an insignificant role of urbanization on rainfall extremes in the major urban areas in India. We find that at the majority of urban areas changes in the extreme rainfall indices are driven by large scale climate variability. Regional Climate Models (RCMs) that participated in the CORDEX-South Asia program showed a significant bias in the monsoon maximum rainfall and rainfall maxima at 100 year return period for the majority of urban areas. For instance, most of the models fail to simulate rainfall maxima within ±10% bias, which can be considered appropriate for a storm water design at many urban areas. Rainfall maxima at 1-3 day durations and 100 year return period is projected to increase significantly under the projected future climate at the majority of urban areas in India. The number of urban areas with significant increases in rainfall maxima under the projected future climate is far larger than the number of areas that experienced significant changes in the historic climate (1901-2010), which warrants a careful attention for urban storm water infrastructure planning and management.

  19. Semiparametric modeling and estimation of the terminal behavior of recurrent marker processes before failure events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chan, Kwun Chuen Gary; Wang, Mei-Cheng

    2017-01-01

    Recurrent event processes with marker measurements are mostly and largely studied with forward time models starting from an initial event. Interestingly, the processes could exhibit important terminal behavior during a time period before occurrence of the failure event. A natural and direct way to study recurrent events prior to a failure event is to align the processes using the failure event as the time origin and to examine the terminal behavior by a backward time model. This paper studies regression models for backward recurrent marker processes by counting time backward from the failure event. A three-level semiparametric regression model is proposed for jointly modeling the time to a failure event, the backward recurrent event process, and the marker observed at the time of each backward recurrent event. The first level is a proportional hazards model for the failure time, the second level is a proportional rate model for the recurrent events occurring before the failure event, and the third level is a proportional mean model for the marker given the occurrence of a recurrent event backward in time. By jointly modeling the three components, estimating equations can be constructed for marked counting processes to estimate the target parameters in the three-level regression models. Large sample properties of the proposed estimators are studied and established. The proposed models and methods are illustrated by a community-based AIDS clinical trial to examine the terminal behavior of frequencies and severities of opportunistic infections among HIV infected individuals in the last six months of life.

  20. ``Mirando al Cielo'', Organization of Public Events for Sky Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parrao, L.

    2011-10-01

    The events called ``Mirando al cielo'' encompass academic, cultural and economic activities with the purpose of promoting the knowledge and furthering the economy of the place where they are held. The academic activities are carried out by students and teachers of the region, and have been organized by UNAM. The cultural and commercial activities are selected among those typical of each place and carried out under the direction of local authorities, with the participation of their inhabitants.

  1. Event-based internet biosurveillance: relation to epidemiological observation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nelson Noele P

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The World Health Organization (WHO collects and publishes surveillance data and statistics for select diseases, but traditional methods of gathering such data are time and labor intensive. Event-based biosurveillance, which utilizes a variety of Internet sources, complements traditional surveillance. In this study we assess the reliability of Internet biosurveillance and evaluate disease-specific alert criteria against epidemiological data. Methods We reviewed and compared WHO epidemiological data and Argus biosurveillance system data for pandemic (H1N1 2009 (April 2009 – January 2010 from 8 regions and 122 countries to: identify reliable alert criteria among 15 Argus-defined categories; determine the degree of data correlation for disease progression; and assess timeliness of Internet information. Results Argus generated a total of 1,580 unique alerts; 5 alert categories generated statistically significant (p  Conclusion Confirmed pandemic (H1N1 2009 cases collected by Argus and WHO methods returned consistent results and confirmed the reliability and timeliness of Internet information. Disease-specific alert criteria provide situational awareness and may serve as proxy indicators to event progression and escalation in lieu of traditional surveillance data; alerts may identify early-warning indicators to another pandemic, preparing the public health community for disease events.

  2. A Macro-Observation Scheme for Abnormal Event Detection in Daily-Life Video Sequences

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chiu Wei-Yao

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract We propose a macro-observation scheme for abnormal event detection in daily life. The proposed macro-observation representation records the time-space energy of motions of all moving objects in a scene without segmenting individual object parts. The energy history of each pixel in the scene is instantly updated with exponential weights without explicitly specifying the duration of each activity. Since possible activities in daily life are numerous and distinct from each other and not all abnormal events can be foreseen, images from a video sequence that spans sufficient repetition of normal day-to-day activities are first randomly sampled. A constrained clustering model is proposed to partition the sampled images into groups. The new observed event that has distinct distance from any of the cluster centroids is then classified as an anomaly. The proposed method has been evaluated in daily work of a laboratory and BEHAVE benchmark dataset. The experimental results reveal that it can well detect abnormal events such as burglary and fighting as long as they last for a sufficient duration of time. The proposed method can be used as a support system for the scene that requires full time monitoring personnel.

  3. Modeling solar energetic particle events using ENLIL heliosphere simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luhmann, J. G.; Mays, M. L.; Odstrcil, D.; Li, Yan; Bain, H.; Lee, C. O.; Galvin, A. B.; Mewaldt, R. A.; Cohen, C. M. S.; Leske, R. A.; Larson, D.; Futaana, Y.

    2017-07-01

    Solar energetic particle (SEP) event modeling has gained renewed attention in part because of the availability of a decade of multipoint measurements from STEREO and L1 spacecraft at 1 AU. These observations are coupled with improving simulations of the geometry and strength of heliospheric shocks obtained by using coronagraph images to send erupted material into realistic solar wind backgrounds. The STEREO and ACE measurements in particular have highlighted the sometimes surprisingly widespread nature of SEP events. It is thus an opportune time for testing SEP models, which typically focus on protons 1-100 MeV, toward both physical insight to these observations and potentially useful space radiation environment forecasting tools. Some approaches emphasize the concept of particle acceleration and propagation from close to the Sun, while others emphasize the local field line connection to a traveling, evolving shock source. Among the latter is the previously introduced SEPMOD treatment, based on the widely accessible and well-exercised WSA-ENLIL-cone model. SEPMOD produces SEP proton time profiles at any location within the ENLIL domain. Here we demonstrate a SEPMOD version that accommodates multiple, concurrent shock sources occurring over periods of several weeks. The results illustrate the importance of considering longer-duration time periods and multiple CME contributions in analyzing, modeling, and forecasting SEP events.

  4. Event horizons in the Polarizable Vacuum Model

    CERN Document Server

    Desiato, J T

    2003-01-01

    The Polarizable Vacuum (PV) Model representation of General Relativity (GR) is used to show that an in-falling particle of matter will reach the central mass object in a finite amount of proper time, as measured along the world line of the particle, when using the PV Metric. It is shown that the in-falling particle passes through an event horizon, analogous to that found in the Schwarzschild solution of GR. Once it passes through this horizon, any light signal emitted outward by the in-falling particle will be moving slower than the in-falling particle, due to the reduced speed of light in this region. Therefore the signal can never escape this horizon. However, the light emitted by a stationary object below the horizon is exponentially red-shifted and can escape along the null geodesics, as was originally predicted by the PV Model. A static, non-rotating charge distribution is added to the central mass and the PV equivalent to the Reissner-Nordstrom metric is derived. It is illustrated that the dipole moment...

  5. Observations involving broadband impedance modelling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Berg, J.S. [Stanford Linear Accelerator Center, Menlo Park, CA (United States)

    1996-08-01

    Results for single- and multi-bunch instabilities can be significantly affected by the precise model that is used for the broadband impedance. This paper discusses three aspects of broadband impedance modelling. The first is an observation of the effect that a seemingly minor change in an impedance model has on the single-bunch mode coupling threshold. The second is a successful attempt to construct a model for the high-frequency tails of an r.f. cavity. The last is a discussion of requirements for the mathematical form of an impedance which follow from the general properties of impedances. (author)

  6. Observations involving broadband impedance modelling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Berg, J.S.

    1995-08-01

    Results for single- and multi-bunch instabilities can be significantly affected by the precise model that is used for the broadband impendance. This paper discusses three aspects of broadband impendance modeling. The first is an observation of the effect that a seemingly minor change in an impedance model has on the single-bunch mode coupling threshold. The second is a successful attempt to construct a model for the high-frequency tails of an r.f cavity. The last is a discussion of requirements for the mathematical form of an impendance which follow from the general properties of impendances.

  7. Analyses of Tsunami Events using Simple Propagation Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chilvery, Ashwith Kumar; Tan, Arjun; Aggarwal, Mohan

    2012-03-01

    Tsunamis exhibit the characteristics of ``canal waves'' or ``gravity waves'' which belong to the class of ``long ocean waves on shallow water.'' The memorable tsunami events including the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami and the 2011 Pacific Ocean tsunami off the coast of Japan are analyzed by constructing simple tsunami propagation models including the following: (1) One-dimensional propagation model; (2) Two-dimensional propagation model on flat surface; (3) Two-dimensional propagation model on spherical surface; and (4) A finite line-source model on two-dimensional surface. It is shown that Model 1 explains the basic features of the tsunami including the propagation speed, depth of the ocean, dispersion-less propagation and bending of tsunamis around obstacles. Models 2 and 3 explain the observed amplitude variations for long-distance tsunami propagation across the Pacific Ocean, including the effect of the equatorial ocean current on the arrival times. Model 3 further explains the enhancement effect on the amplitude due to the curvature of the Earth past the equatorial distance. Finally, Model 4 explains the devastating effect of superposition of tsunamis from two subduction event, which struck the Phuket region during the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami.

  8. CRRES observations of ion composition during EMIC mode wave events

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Macdonald, Elizabeth [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Larsen, Brian [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2010-12-13

    EMIC mode waves may play an important role in the dynamics of the growth and loss of the radiation belts. CRRES mission analysis has provided extensive information on the distributions of EMIC mode waves. Less well studied and understood is the role that ion composition plays in the formation of the EMIC mode waves. The CRESS plasma mass spectrometer LOMICS measured all ion species of interest up to 45 keV/q. This preliminary study will examine the characteristics of heavy ions during a multitude of wave events, in particular, the effect of ion composition on wave-particle interactions, amplitude, and frequency. The relevance of such data to the upcoming RBSP mission will be highlighted.

  9. Review and Assessment of ATV Observation Data for Events Characterization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mazoue, Franck; Beck, James; Reynier, Philippe

    2011-02-01

    For investigating ATV re-entry, observation airborne campaigns have been carried out at the end of the mission to ISS of Jules Verne ATV. The observations of re-entry have highlighted that the in-flight scenario was quite different to the nominal one, since two explosions occurred during the flight. In this paper, the data gathered during the observations have been analysed in the perspective of the explosion analysis. The potential explosive elements present on board have been studied and the explosion products identified. To identify the possible scenario that led to the vehicle explosion the list of explosion products has been compared with the radiators put in evidence in the spectra obtained by spectroscopy during the flight. Finally, the most reliable scenario has been identified and the power available for explosion evaluated. This shows that non negligible delta V could have been produced by the explosion.

  10. Observations and Impact Assessments of Extreme Space Weather Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, D. N.

    2007-05-01

    "Space weather" refers to conditions on the Sun, in the solar wind, and in Earth`s magnetosphere, ionosphere, and thermosphere. Activity on the Sun such as solar flares and coronal mass ejections can lead to high levels of radiation in space and can cause major magnetic storms at the Earth. Space radiation can come as energetic particles or as electromagnetic emissions. Adverse conditions in the near-Earth space environment can cause disruption of satellite operations, communications, navigation, and electric power distribution grids. This can lead to a variety of socioeconomic losses. Astronauts and airline passengers exposed to high levels of radiation are also at risk. Society`s vulnerability to space weather effects is an issue of increasing concern. We are dependent on technological systems that are becoming more susceptible to space weather disturbances. We also have a permanent human presence in space with the International Space Station and the President and NASA have expressed a desire to expand our human space activities with missions to the moon and Mars. This will make space weather of even greater concern in the future. In this talk I will describe many space weather effects and will describe some of the societal and economic impacts that extreme events have had.

  11. Observational modeling of topological spaces

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Molaei, M.R. [Department of Mathematics, Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman, Kerman 76169-14111 (Iran, Islamic Republic of)], E-mail: mrmolaei@mail.uk.ac.ir

    2009-10-15

    In this paper a model for a multi-dimensional observer by using of the fuzzy theory is presented. Relative form of Tychonoff theorem is proved. The notion of topological entropy is extended. The persistence of relative topological entropy under relative conjugate relation is proved.

  12. The triggering of electromagnetic observations by gravitational wave events

    OpenAIRE

    Sylvestre, Julien

    2003-01-01

    The prospects for the observation of electromagnetic emissions by gravitational wave sources first detected using a network of interferometers are discussed. Various emission mechanisms and detection techniques for compact binary inspirals are studied to show that the pointing ability of gravitational wave observatories and the efficacy of electromagnetic detectors can be combined to predict that counterpart detections are improbable for the Initial interferometers, possible with Advanced LIG...

  13. AMPTE IRM observations of waves associated with flux transfer events in the magnetosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Labelle, J.; Treumann, R. A.; Haerendel, G.; Bauer, O. H.; Paschmann, G.

    1987-01-01

    The AMPTE IRM wave instrument has been applied to the study of flux transfer events (FTE's). This initial investigation concentrates on FTE's observed in the magnetosphere during the fall of 1984. The wave morphology consists of four significant features: at frequencies below the ion gyrofrequency, magnetic fluctuations occur with amplitudes of the order of 1 nT; at frequencies from a few hertz to a few hundred hertz, electric field fluctuations are observed which have a broadband amplitude of a few millivolts per meter, which are perpendicularly polarized at the lowest frequencies, and which are partly electrostatic and partly electromagnetic; in the frequency range from 100 Hz to 10 kHz, broadband spikelike waves occur with a time-averaged amplitude of about 0.1 mV/m; and near the electron plasma frequency, bursts of waves occur at the boundaries of FTE's. In none of the 25 events surveyed does the total broadband amplitude of all the waves exceed a few millivolts per meter, an amplitude far too small to provide the dissipation required by 'traditional' reconnection models in which the dissipation region has a thickness the order of an ion gyroradius. Thus, either all of the FTE's are observed at some distance from the diffusion region, or the observable waves play no significant role in the diffusion process, or 'traditional' reconnection models do not apply to reconnection in FTE's.

  14. Assessing Hydrological Extreme Events with Geospatial Data and Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vivoni, Enrique R.; Grimaldi, Salvatore; Nardi, Fernando; Ivanov, Valeriy Y.; Castelli, Fabio; Bras, Rafael L.; Ubertini, Lucio

    2004-09-01

    Prediction of river basin hydrological response to extreme meteorological events is a primary concern in areas with frequent flooding, landslides, and debris flows. Natural hydrogeological disasters in many regions lead to extensive property damage, impact on societal activities, and loss of life. Hydrologists have a long history of assessing and predicting hydrologic hazards through the combined use of field observations, monitoring networks, remote sensing, and numerical modeling. Nevertheless, the integration of field data and computer models has yet to result in prediction systems that capture space-time interactions between meteorological forcing, land surface characteristics, and the internal hydrological response in river basins. Capabilities for assessing hydrologic extreme events are greatly enhanced via the use of geospatial data sets describing watershed properties such as topography, channel structure, soils, vegetation, and geological features. Recent advances in managing, processing, and visualizing cartographic data with geographic information systems (GIS) have enabled their direct use in spatially distributed hydrological models. In a distributed model application, geospatial data sets can be used to establish the model domain, specify boundary and initial conditions, determine the spatial variation of parameter values, and provide the spatial model forcing. By representing a watershed through a set of discrete elements, distributed models simulate water, energy, and mass transport in a landscape and provide estimates of the spatial pattern of hydrologic states, fluxes, and pathways.

  15. Events Marketing Model of Dubai Shopping Festival

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Prakash Vel

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Cities and places have become major destinations through taking the extra mile of creativity and offering a well-researched package of offerings through systematically planned events. One such leading example in the list of successful festivals that have earned a global reputation due to its uniqueness and creative event offerings is the Dubai Shopping Festival (DSF in the United Arab Emirates. This paper is a case study based description of the internal and external drivers involved in planning and implementing a global event successfully and has captured the various drivers through a structured framework. The analysis serves as a good addition to the existing literature on ‘Events Marketing’. 

  16. Observation of an excess of events in the search for the Standard Model Higgs boson in the H → ZZ(∗) → 4l channel with the ATLAS detector

    CERN Document Server

    The ATLAS collaboration

    2012-01-01

    This note presents an update of the search results and a first measurement of the proper- ties of the newly observed Higgs-like particle in the decay channel H → ZZ(∗) → l+l−l′+l′−, wherel,l′ =eorμ,using4.6fb−1and13.0fb−1ofproton-protoncollisionsat√s=7TeV and 8 TeV, respectively, recorded with the ATLAS detector. An excess of events over back- ground is seen, with a minimum p0 value of 0.0021% (4.1 standard deviations) at mH = 123.5 GeV in the combined analysis of the two datasets. The fitted Higgs mass is measured to be mH = 123.5 ± 0.9 (stat) ± 0.3 (syst) GeV, and the signal strength (the ratio of the ob- served cross-section to the expected SM cross-section) at this mass is found to be μ = 1.3+0.5. −0.4 A spin-parity analysis is performed on the events with 115 GeV < mH < 130 GeV. The 0+ state is found to be favoured over the 0−, 2+ and 2− states with 0− excluded by 2.7 σ when compared to 0+.

  17. Polar tropospheric ozone depletion events observed in IGY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. K. Roscoe

    2006-05-01

    Full Text Available The Royal Society expedition to Antarctica established a base at Halley Bay, in support of the International Geophysical Year of 1957–1958. Surface ozone was measured during 1958 only, using a prototype Brewer-Mast sonde. The envelope of maximum ozone was an annual cycle from 10 ppbv in January to 22 ppbv in August. These values are 35% less at the start of the year and 15% less at the end than modern values from Neumayer, also a coastal site. This may reflect a general increase in surface ozone since 1958 and differences in summer at the less windy site of Halley, or it may reflect ozone loss on the inlet together with long-term conditioning. There were short periods in September when ozone values decreased rapidly to near-zero, and some in August when ozone values were rapidly halved. Such ozone-loss episodes, catalysed by bromine compounds, became well-known in the Artic in the 1980s, and were observed more recently in the Antarctic. In 1958, very small ozone values were recorded for a week in midwinter during clear weather with light winds. The absence of similar midwinter reductions at Neumayer, or at Halley in the few measurements during 1987, means we must remain suspicious of these small values, but we can find no obvious reason to discount them. The dark reaction of ozone and seawater ice observed in the laboratory may be fast enough to explain them if the salinity and surface area of the ice is sufficiently amplified by frost flowers.

  18. Radiation Transfer Model for Aerosol Events in the Earth Atmosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mukai, Sonoyo; Yokomae, Takuma; Nakata, Makiko; Sano, Itaru

    Recently large scale-forest fire, which damages the Earth environment as biomass burning and emission of carbonaceous particles, frequently occurs due to the unstable climate and/or global warming tendency. It is also known that the heavy soil dust is transported from the China continent to Japan on westerly winds, especially in spring. Furthermore the increasing emis-sions of anthropogenic particles associated with continuing economic growth scatter serious air pollutants. Thus atmospheric aerosols, especially in Asia, are very complex and heavy loading, which is called aerosol event. In the case of aerosol events, it is rather difficult to do the sun/sky photometry from the ground, however satellite observation is an effective for aerosol monitoring. Here the detection algorithms from space for such aerosol events as dust storm or biomass burn-ing are dealt with multispectral satellite data as ADEOS-2/GLI, Terra/Aqua/MODIS and/or GOSAT/CAI first. And then aerosol retrieval algorithms are examined based on new radiation transfer code for semi-infinite atmosphere model. The derived space-based results are validated with ground-based measurements and/or model simulations. Namely the space-or surface-based measurements, multiple scattering calculations and model simulations are synthesized together for aerosol retrieval in this work.

  19. An event-based hydrologic simulation model for bioretention systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roy-Poirier, A; Filion, Y; Champagne, P

    2015-01-01

    Bioretention systems are designed to treat stormwater and provide attenuated drainage between storms. Bioretention has shown great potential at reducing the volume and improving the quality of stormwater. This study introduces the bioretention hydrologic model (BHM), a one-dimensional model that simulates the hydrologic response of a bioretention system over the duration of a storm event. BHM is based on the RECARGA model, but has been adapted for improved accuracy and integration of pollutant transport models. BHM contains four completely-mixed layers and accounts for evapotranspiration, overflow, exfiltration to native soils and underdrain discharge. Model results were evaluated against field data collected over 10 storm events. Simulated flows were particularly sensitive to antecedent water content and drainage parameters of bioretention soils, which were calibrated through an optimisation algorithm. Temporal disparity was observed between simulated and measured flows, which was attributed to preferential flow paths formed within the soil matrix of the field system. Modelling results suggest that soil water storage is the most important short-term hydrologic process in bioretention, with exfiltration having the potential to be significant in native soils with sufficient permeability.

  20. Jellyfish: Observational Properties of Extreme Ram-Pressure Stripping Events in Massive Galaxy Clusters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conor, McPartland; Ebeling, Harald; Roediger, Elke

    2015-08-01

    We investigate the physical origin and observational signatures of extreme ram-pressure stripping (RPS) in 63 massive galaxy clusters at z=0.3-0.7, based on data in the F606W passband obtained with the Advanced Camera for Surveys aboard the Hubble Space Telescope. Using a training set of a dozen ``jellyfish" galaxies identified earlier in the same imaging data, we define quantitative morphological criteria to select candidate galaxies which are similar to known cases of RPS. Considering a sample of 16 ``jellyfish" galaxies (10 of which we present for the first time), we visually derive estimates of the projected direction of motion based on dynamical features such as apparent compression shocks and debris trails. Our findings suggest that the observed events occur primarily at large distances from the cluster core and involve infall trajectories featuring high impact parameters. Simple models of cluster growth show that such trajectories are consistent with two scenarios: 1) galaxy infall along filaments; and 2) infall at high velocities (≥1000 km/s) characteristic of cluster mergers. The observed distribution of events is best described by timescales of ˜few Myr in agreement with recent numerical simulations of RPS. The broader areal coverage of the Hubble Frontier Fields should provide an even larger sample of RPS events to determine the relative contributions of infall and cluster mergers. Prompted by the discovery of several jellyfish galaxies whose brightness in the F606W passband rivals or exceeds that of the respective brightest cluster galaxy, we attempt to constrain the luminosity function of galaxies undergoing RPS. The observed significant excess at the bright end compared to the luminosity functions of blue cluster members strongly suggests enhanced star formation, thus challenging theoretical and numerical studies according to which RPS merely displaces existing star-forming regions. In-depth studies of individual objects will help test our

  1. Bayesian Techniques for Comparing Time-dependent GRMHD Simulations to Variable Event Horizon Telescope Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Junhan; Marrone, Daniel P.; Chan, Chi-Kwan; Medeiros, Lia; Özel, Feryal; Psaltis, Dimitrios

    2016-12-01

    The Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) is a millimeter-wavelength, very-long-baseline interferometry (VLBI) experiment that is capable of observing black holes with horizon-scale resolution. Early observations have revealed variable horizon-scale emission in the Galactic Center black hole, Sagittarius A* (Sgr A*). Comparing such observations to time-dependent general relativistic magnetohydrodynamic (GRMHD) simulations requires statistical tools that explicitly consider the variability in both the data and the models. We develop here a Bayesian method to compare time-resolved simulation images to variable VLBI data, in order to infer model parameters and perform model comparisons. We use mock EHT data based on GRMHD simulations to explore the robustness of this Bayesian method and contrast it to approaches that do not consider the effects of variability. We find that time-independent models lead to offset values of the inferred parameters with artificially reduced uncertainties. Moreover, neglecting the variability in the data and the models often leads to erroneous model selections. We finally apply our method to the early EHT data on Sgr A*.

  2. Probabilistic modelling of flood events using the entropy copula

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Fan; Zheng, Qian

    2016-11-01

    The estimation of flood frequency is vital for the flood control strategies and hydraulic structure design. Generating synthetic flood events according to statistical properties of observations is one of plausible methods to analyze the flood frequency. Due to the statistical dependence among the flood event variables (i.e. the flood peak, volume and duration), a multidimensional joint probability estimation is required. Recently, the copula method is widely used for multivariable dependent structure construction, however, the copula family should be chosen before application and the choice process is sometimes rather subjective. The entropy copula, a new copula family, employed in this research proposed a way to avoid the relatively subjective process by combining the theories of copula and entropy. The analysis shows the effectiveness of the entropy copula for probabilistic modelling the flood events of two hydrological gauges, and a comparison of accuracy with the popular copulas was made. The Gibbs sampling technique was applied for trivariate flood events simulation in order to mitigate the calculation difficulties of extending to three dimension directly. The simulation results indicate that the entropy copula is a simple and effective copula family for trivariate flood simulation.

  3. Incorporating flood event analyses and catchment structures into model development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oppel, Henning; Schumann, Andreas

    2016-04-01

    The space-time variability in catchment response results from several hydrological processes which differ in their relevance in an event-specific way. An approach to characterise this variance consists in comparisons between flood events in a catchment and between flood responses of several sub-basins in such an event. In analytical frameworks the impact of space and time variability of rainfall on runoff generation due to rainfall excess can be characterised. Moreover the effect of hillslope and channel network routing on runoff timing can be specified. Hence, a modelling approach is needed to specify the runoff generation and formation. Knowing the space-time variability of rainfall and the (spatial averaged) response of a catchment it seems worthwhile to develop new models based on event and catchment analyses. The consideration of spatial order and the distribution of catchment characteristics in their spatial variability and interaction with the space-time variability of rainfall provides additional knowledge about hydrological processes at the basin scale. For this purpose a new procedure to characterise the spatial heterogeneity of catchments characteristics in their succession along the flow distance (differentiated between river network and hillslopes) was developed. It was applied to study of flood responses at a set of nested catchments in a river basin in eastern Germany. In this study the highest observed rainfall-runoff events were analysed, beginning at the catchment outlet and moving upstream. With regard to the spatial heterogeneities of catchment characteristics, sub-basins were separated by new algorithms to attribute runoff-generation, hillslope and river network processes. With this procedure the cumulative runoff response at the outlet can be decomposed and individual runoff features can be assigned to individual aspects of the catchment. Through comparative analysis between the sub-catchments and the assigned effects on runoff dynamics new

  4. Conceptual Modeling for Discrete-Event Simulation

    CERN Document Server

    Robinson, Stewart

    2010-01-01

    What is a conceptual model? How is conceptual modeling performed in general and in specific modeling domains? What is the role of established approaches in conceptual modeling? This book addresses these issues

  5. Neutrino event counts from Type Ia supernova models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nagaraj, Gautam; Scholberg, Kate

    2016-01-01

    Core collapse supernovae (SNe) are widely known to be among the universe's primary neutrino factories, releasing ˜99% of their energy, or ˜1053 ergs, in the form of the tiny leptons. On the other hand, less than 4% of the energy of Type Ia SNe is released via neutrinos, hence making Ia SNe impossible to detect (through neutrino observations) at typical supernova distances. For this reason, neutrino signatures from these explosions have very rarely been modeled. We ran time-sliced fluences from non-oscillation pure deflagration and delayed detonation (DDT) Ia models by Odrzywolek and Plewa (2011) through SNOwGLoBES, a software that calculates event rates and other observed quantities of supernova neutrinos in various detectors. We determined Ia neutrino event rates in Hyper-K, a proposed water Cherenkov detector, JUNO, a scintillator detector under construction, and DUNE, a proposed argon detector, and identified criteria to distinguish between the two models (pure deflagration and DDT) based on data from a real supernova (statistically represented by a Poisson distribution around the expected result). We found that up to distances of 8.00, 1.54, and 2.37 kpc (subject to change based on oscillation effects and modified detector efficiencies), we can discern the explosion mechanism with ≥90% confidence in Hyper-K, JUNO, and DUNE, respectively, thus learning more about Ia progenitors.

  6. A model of return intervals between earthquake events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Yu; Chechkin, Aleksei; Sokolov, Igor M.; Kantz, Holger

    2016-06-01

    Application of the diffusion entropy analysis and the standard deviation analysis to the time sequence of the southern California earthquake events from 1976 to 2002 uncovered scaling behavior typical for anomalous diffusion. However, the origin of such behavior is still under debate. Some studies attribute the scaling behavior to the correlations in the return intervals, or waiting times, between aftershocks or mainshocks. To elucidate a nature of the scaling, we applied specific reshulffling techniques to eliminate correlations between different types of events and then examined how it affects the scaling behavior. We demonstrate that the origin of the scaling behavior observed is the interplay between mainshock waiting time distribution and the structure of clusters of aftershocks, but not correlations in waiting times between the mainshocks and aftershocks themselves. Our findings are corroborated by numerical simulations of a simple model showing a very similar behavior. The mainshocks are modeled by a renewal process with a power-law waiting time distribution between events, and aftershocks follow a nonhomogeneous Poisson process with the rate governed by Omori's law.

  7. Review of Wind Energy Forecasting Methods for Modeling Ramping Events

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wharton, S; Lundquist, J K; Marjanovic, N; Williams, J L; Rhodes, M; Chow, T K; Maxwell, R

    2011-03-28

    Tall onshore wind turbines, with hub heights between 80 m and 100 m, can extract large amounts of energy from the atmosphere since they generally encounter higher wind speeds, but they face challenges given the complexity of boundary layer flows. This complexity of the lowest layers of the atmosphere, where wind turbines reside, has made conventional modeling efforts less than ideal. To meet the nation's goal of increasing wind power into the U.S. electrical grid, the accuracy of wind power forecasts must be improved. In this report, the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, in collaboration with the University of Colorado at Boulder, University of California at Berkeley, and Colorado School of Mines, evaluates innovative approaches to forecasting sudden changes in wind speed or 'ramping events' at an onshore, multimegawatt wind farm. The forecast simulations are compared to observations of wind speed and direction from tall meteorological towers and a remote-sensing Sound Detection and Ranging (SODAR) instrument. Ramping events, i.e., sudden increases or decreases in wind speed and hence, power generated by a turbine, are especially problematic for wind farm operators. Sudden changes in wind speed or direction can lead to large power generation differences across a wind farm and are very difficult to predict with current forecasting tools. Here, we quantify the ability of three models, mesoscale WRF, WRF-LES, and PF.WRF, which vary in sophistication and required user expertise, to predict three ramping events at a North American wind farm.

  8. Very low frequency radio events with a reduced intensity observed by the low-altitude DEMETER spacecraft

    Science.gov (United States)

    Záhlava, J.; Němec, F.; Santolík, O.; Kolmašová, I.; Parrot, M.; Rodger, C. J.

    2015-11-01

    We present results of a systematic study of unusual very low frequency (VLF) radio events with a reduced intensity observed in the frequency-time spectrograms measured by the low-orbiting Detection of Electro-Magnetic Emissions Transmitted from Earthquake Regions (DEMETER) spacecraft. They occur exclusively on the nightside. During these events, the intensity of fractional hop whistlers at specific frequencies is significantly reduced. These frequencies are usually above about 3.4 kHz (second Earth-ionosphere waveguide cutoff frequency), but about 20% of events extend down to about 1.7 kHz (first Earth-ionosphere waveguide cutoff frequency). The frequencies of a reduced intensity vary smoothly with time. We have inspected 6.5 years of DEMETER data, and we identified in total 1601 such events. We present a simple model of the event formation based on the wave propagation in the Earth-ionosphere waveguide. We apply the model to two selected events, and we demonstrate that the model is able to reproduce both the minimum frequencies of the events and their approximate frequency-time shapes. The overall geographic distribution of the events is shifted by about 3000 km westward and slightly southward with respect to the areas with high long-term average lightning activity. We demonstrate that this shift is related to the specific DEMETER orbit, and we suggest its qualitative explanation by the east-west asymmetry of the wave propagation in the Earth-ionosphere waveguide.

  9. Verification of ensemble forecasts of Mediterranean high-impact weather events against satellite observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J.-P. Chaboureau

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Ensemble forecasts at kilometre scale of two severe storms over the Mediterranean region are verified against satellite observations. In complement to assessing the forecasts against ground-based measurements, brightness temperature (BT images are computed from forecast fields and directly compared to BTs observed from satellite. The so-called model-to-satellite approach is very effective in identifying systematic errors in the prediction of cloud cover for BTs in the infrared window and in verifying the forecasted convective activity with BTs in the microwave range. This approach is combined with the calculation of meteorological scores for an objective evaluation of ensemble forecasts. The application of the approach is shown in the context of two Mediterranean case studies, a tropical-like storm and a heavy precipitating event. Assessment of cloud cover and convective activity using satellite observations in the infrared (10.8 μm and microwave regions (183–191 GHz provides results consistent with other traditional methods using rainfall measurements. In addition, for the tropical-like storm, differences among forecasts occur much earlier in terms of cloud cover and deep convective activity than they do in terms of deepening and track. Further, the underdispersion of the ensemble forecasts of the two high-impact weather events is easily identified with satellite diagnostics. This suggests that such an approach could be a useful method for verifying ensemble forecasts, particularly in data-sparse regions.

  10. Spectral lags of flaring events in LS I+61°303 from RXTE Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarkar, Tamal; Sarkar, Samir; Bhadra, Arunava

    2016-07-01

    This work reports the first discovery of (negative) spectral lags in X-ray emission below 10keV from the gamma ray binary LS I+61° 303 during large flaring episodes using Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer (RXTE) observations. It is found from the RXTE data that during the flares, low energy (3–5 keV) variations lead the higher energy (8–10 keV) variations by a few tens of seconds whereas no significant time lag is observed during the non-flaring states. The observed spectral lag features for flaring events suggest that inverse Compton scattering may be operating, at least in some part of the system. Another possibility is that the sites of particle acceleration may be different for flaring and non-flaring events such as in the microquasar model, in which the flaring radiation may come from hot spots sitting above the black hole while steady state emissions are due to the jets.

  11. Model Checking Event-B by Encoding into Alloy

    CERN Document Server

    Matos, Paulo J

    2008-01-01

    As systems become ever more complex, verification becomes more main stream. Event-B and Alloy are two formal specification languages based on fairly different methodologies. While Event-B uses theorem provers to prove that invariants hold for a given specification, Alloy uses a SAT-based model finder. In some settings, Event-B invariants may not be proved automatically, and so the often difficult step of interactive proof is required. One solution for this problem is to validate invariants with model checking. This work studies the encoding of Event-B machines and contexts to Alloy in order to perform temporal model checking with Alloy's SAT-based engine.

  12. Modeling Rare Baseball Events--Are They Memoryless?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huber, Michael; Glen, Andrew

    2007-01-01

    Three sets of rare baseball events--pitching a no-hit game, hitting for the cycle, and turning a triple play--offer excellent examples of events whose occurrence may be modeled as Poisson processes. That is, the time of occurrence of one of these events doesn't affect when we see the next occurrence of such. We modeled occurrences of these three…

  13. Modelling substorm chorus events in terms of dispersive azimuthal drift

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. B. Collier

    2004-12-01

    Full Text Available The Substorm Chorus Event (SCE is a radio phenomenon observed on the ground after the onset of the substorm expansion phase. It consists of a band of VLF chorus with rising upper and lower cutoff frequencies. These emissions are thought to result from Doppler-shifted cyclotron resonance between whistler mode waves and energetic electrons which drift into a ground station's field of view from an injection site around midnight. The increasing frequency of the emission envelope has been attributed to the combined effects of energy dispersion due to gradient and curvature drifts, and the modification of resonance conditions and variation of the half-gyrofrequency cutoff resulting from the radial component of the ExB drift.

    A model is presented which accounts for the observed features of the SCE in terms of the growth rate of whistler mode waves due to anisotropy in the electron distribution. This model provides an explanation for the increasing frequency of the SCE lower cutoff, as well as reproducing the general frequency-time signature of the event. In addition, the results place some restrictions on the injected particle source distribution which might lead to a SCE.

    Key words. Space plasma physics (Wave-particle interaction – Magnetospheric physics (Plasma waves and instabilities; Storms and substorms

  14. Observations of planetary waves in the mesosphere-lower thermosphere during stratospheric warming events

    CERN Document Server

    Stray, N H; Espy, P J; Limpasuvan, V; Hibbins, R E

    2016-01-01

    This study investigates the effect of stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) on planetary wave (PW) activity in the mesosphere-lower thermosphere (MLT). PW activity near 95 km is derived from meteor wind data using a chain of eight SuperDARN radars at high northern latitudes that span longitudes from 150$^{\\circ}$ W to 25$^{\\circ}$ E and latitudes from 51 to 66$^{\\circ}$ N. Zonal wave number 1 and 2 components were extracted from the meridional wind for the years 2000-2008. The observed wintertime PW activity shows common features associated with the stratospheric wind reversals and the accompanying stratospheric warming events. Onset dates for seven SSW events accompanied by an elevated stratopause (ES) were identified during this time period using the Specified Dynamics Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (SD-WACCM). For the seven events, a significant enhancement in wave number 1 and 2 PW amplitudes near 95 km was found to occur after the wind reversed at 50 km, with amplitudes maximizing approximately ...

  15. Event-Based Corpuscular Model for Quantum Optics Experiments

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Michielsen, K.; Jin, F.; Raedt, H. De

    2011-01-01

    A corpuscular simulation model of optical phenomena that does not require the knowledge of the solution of a wave equation of the whole system and reproduces the results of Maxwell's theory by generating detection events one-by-one is presented. The event-based corpuscular model is shown to give a u

  16. Event-Based Corpuscular Model for Quantum Optics Experiments

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Michielsen, K.; Jin, F.; Raedt, H. De

    A corpuscular simulation model of optical phenomena that does not require the knowledge of the solution of a wave equation of the whole system and reproduces the results of Maxwell's theory by generating detection events one-by-one is presented. The event-based corpuscular model is shown to give a

  17. Event-based Simulation Model for Quantum Optics Experiments

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    De Raedt, H.; Michielsen, K.; Jaeger, G; Khrennikov, A; Schlosshauer, M; Weihs, G

    2011-01-01

    We present a corpuscular simulation model of optical phenomena that does not require the knowledge of the solution of a wave equation of the whole system and reproduces the results of Maxwell's theory by generating detection events one-by-one. The event-based corpuscular model gives a unified

  18. Conceptual Modeling of Events as Information Objects and Change Agents

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bækgaard, Lars

    as a totality of an information object and a change agent. When an event is modeled as an information object it is comparable to an entity that exists only at a specific point in time. It has attributes and can be used for querying and specification of constraints. When an event is modeled as a change agent...

  19. Observation of Long Ionospheric Recoveries from Lightning-induced Electron Precipitation Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohammadpour Salut, M.; Cohen, M.

    2015-12-01

    Lightning strokes induces lower ionospheric nighttime disturbances which can be detected through Very Low Frequency (VLF) remote sensing via at least two means: (1) direct heating and ionization, known as an Early event, and (2) triggered precipitation of energetic electrons from the radiation belts, known as Lightning-induced Electron Precipitation (LEP). For each, the ionospheric recover time is typically a few minutes or less. A small class of Early events have been identified as having unusually long ionospheric recoveries (10s of minutes), with the underlying mechanism still in question. Our study shows for the first time that some LEP events also demonstrate unusually long recovery. The VLF events were detected by visual inspection of the recorded data in both the North-South and East-West magnetic fields. Data from the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) are used to determine the location and peak current of the lightning responsible for each lightning-associated VLF perturbation. LEP or Early VLF events are determined by measuring the time delay between the causative lightning discharges and the onset of all lightning-associated perturbations. LEP events typically possess an onset delay greater than ~ 200 msec following the causative lightning discharges, while the onset of Early VLF events is time-aligned (events are distinguished from ducted events based on the location of the causative lightning relative to the precipitation region. From 15 March to 20 April and 15 October to 15 November 2011, a total of 385 LEP events observed at Indiana, Montana, Colorado and Oklahoma VLF sites, on the NAA, NLK and NML transmitter signals. 46 of these events exhibited a long recovery. It has been found that the occurrence rate of ducted long recovery LEP events is higher than nonducted. Of the 46 long recovery LEP events, 33 events were induced by ducted whistlers, and 13 events were associated with nonducted obliquely propagating whistler waves. The occurrence

  20. Modeling energy market dynamics using discrete event system simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gutierrez-Alcaraz, G. [Department of Electrical and Electronics Engineering, Instituto Tecnologico de Morelia, Av. Tecnologico 1500, Col. Lomas de Santiaguito 58120, Morelia Michoacan (Mexico); Sheble, G.B. [Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Portland State University, Portland, OR 97207-0751 (United States)

    2009-10-15

    This paper proposes the use of Discrete Event System Simulation to study the interactions among fuel and electricity markets and consumers, and the decision-making processes of fuel companies (FUELCOs), generation companies (GENCOs), and consumers in a simple artificial energy market. In reality, since markets can reach a stable equilibrium or fail, it is important to observe how they behave in a dynamic framework. We consider a Nash-Cournot model in which marketers are depicted as Nash-Cournot players that determine supply to meet end-use consumption. Detailed engineering considerations such as transportation network flows are omitted, because the focus is upon the selection and use of appropriate market models to provide answers to policy questions. (author)

  1. Event-Entity-Relationship Modeling in Data Warehouse Environments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bækgaard, Lars

    We use the event-entity-relationship model (EVER) to illustrate the use of entity-based modeling languages for conceptual schema design in data warehouse environments. EVER is a general-purpose information modeling language that supports the specification of both general schema structures and multi......-dimensional schemes that are customized to serve specific information needs. EVER is based on an event concept that is very well suited for multi-dimensional modeling because measurement data often represent events in multi-dimensional databases...

  2. An observation-based approach to identify local natural dust events from routine aerosol ground monitoring

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Q. Tong

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Dust is a major component of atmospheric aerosols in many parts of the world. Although there exist many routine aerosol monitoring networks, it is often difficult to obtain dust records from these networks, because these monitors are either deployed far away from dust active regions (most likely collocated with dense population or contaminated by anthropogenic sources and other natural sources, such as wildfires and vegetation detritus. Here we propose a new approach to identify local dust events relying solely on aerosol mass and composition from general-purpose aerosol measurements. Through analyzing the chemical and physical characteristics of aerosol observations during satellite-detected dust episodes, we select five indicators to be used to identify local dust records: (1 high PM10 concentrations; (2 low PM2.5/PM10 ratio; (3 higher concentrations and percentage of crustal elements; (4 lower percentage of anthropogenic pollutants; and (5 low enrichment factors of anthropogenic elements. After establishing these identification criteria, we conduct hierarchical cluster analysis for all validated aerosol measurement data over 68 IMPROVE sites in the Western United States. A total of 182 local dust events were identified over 30 of the 68 locations from 2000 to 2007. These locations are either close to the four US Deserts, namely the Great Basin Desert, the Mojave Desert, the Sonoran Desert, and the Chihuahuan Desert, or in the high wind power region (Colorado. During the eight-year study period, the total number of dust events displays an interesting four-year activity cycle (one in 2000–2003 and the other in 2004–2007. The years of 2003, 2002 and 2007 are the three most active dust periods, with 46, 31 and 24 recorded dust events, respectively, while the years of 2000, 2004 and 2005 are the calmest periods, all with single digit dust records. Among these deserts, the Chihuahua Desert (59 cases and the

  3. Modelling early events in Francisella tularensis pathogenesis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Grant eLythe

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Computational models can provide valuable insights into the mechanisms of infection and be used as investigative tools to support development of medical treatments. We develop a stochastic, within-host, computational model of the infection process in the BALB/c mouse, following inhalational exposure to Francisella tularensis SCHU S4. The model is mechanistic and governed by a small number of experimentally verifiable parameters. Given an initial dose, the model generates bacterial load profiles corresponding to those produced experimentally, with a doubling time of approximately 5 hours during the first 48 hours of infection. Analytical approximations for the mean number of bacteria in phagosomes and cytosols for the first twenty-four hours post-infection are derived and used to verify the stochastic model. In our description of the dynamics of macrophage infection, the number of bacteria released per rupturing macrophage is a geometrically-distributed random variable. When combined with doubling time, this provides a distribution for the time taken for infected macrophages to rupture and release their intracellular bacteria. The mean and variance of these distributions are determined by model parameters with a precise biological interpretation, providing new mechanistic insights into the determinants of immune and bacterial kinetics. Insights into the dynamics of macrophage suppression and activation gained by the model can be used to explore the potential benefits of interventions that stimulate macrophage activation.

  4. Structured Event-B Models and Proofs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hallerstede, Stefan

    2010-01-01

    two unfortunate consequences: such models become less comprehensible - we have to infer sequential ordering from the use of program counters; proof obligation generation does not consider ordering - generating too many proof obligations (although these are usually trivially discharged......). In this article we propose a method for specifying structured models avoiding, in particular, the use of abstract program counters. It uses a notation that mainly serves to drive proof obligation generation. However, the notation also describes the structure of a model explicitly. A corresponding graphical...

  5. Catastrophic event modeling. [lithium thionyl chloride batteries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frank, H. A.

    1981-01-01

    A mathematical model for the catastrophic failures (venting or explosion of the cell) in lithium thionyl chloride batteries is presented. The phenomenology of the various processes leading to cell failure is reviewed.

  6. Alternative model for the Great Oxidation Event

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bekker, A.

    2014-12-01

    Transition from the Archean, largely anoxic atmosphere and ocean to the Proterozoic oxidizing surface conditions has been inferred in Zimbabwe from the geochemical and geological evidence as early as 1927. Subsequent studies provided additional support for this interpretation, bracketed the transition between 2.45 and 2.32 Ga, and suggested temporal and cause-and-effect relationship with a series of the early Paleoproterozoic ice ages (including 4 discrete events). Recently recognized transient oxidation events of the Archean add texture to this pattern, but do not change it. The rise of atmospheric oxygen requires a misbalance between oxygen sinks and sources and most attention was focused on sinks. In contrast, change in oxygen supply related to low organic productivity in Archean oceans with limited nutrient contents are considered here. Although carbon isotope values of carbonates and organic carbon indicate substantial relative burial rate of organic carbon during the Archean, most of the earlier buried organic matter at that time was recycled to sediments during continental weathering, implying very low productivity and burial of 'new' organic carbon. Low contents of redox-sensitive elements, such as Mo, Cu, Zn, and V, in Archean seawater could have kept organic productivity and oxygen production at low levels. The GOE was immediately preceded by deposition of giant iron formations, accounting for more than 70% of world iron resources, and worldwide emplacement of a number of LIPs between 2.5 and 2.45 Ga, indicating enhanced delivery of nutrients and redox-sensitive elements to the oceans via submarine hydrothermal processes and continental weathering under CO2- and SO2-rich atmosphere and associated terrestrial acidic runoff. This enhanced emplacement of LIPs has been linked with the growth of continental crust, emergence of the first supercontinent, and mantle overturn at the Archean-Proterozoic boundary. The GOE could have thus been triggered by enhanced

  7. Investigation on rainfall extremes events trough a geoadditive model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bocci, C.; Caporali, E.; Petrucci, A.; Rossi, G.

    2012-04-01

    Rainfall can be considered a very important variable, and rainfall extreme events analysis of great concern for the enormous impacts that they may have on everyday life particularly when related to intense rainfalls and floods, and hydraulic risk management. On the catchment area of Arno River in Tuscany, Central Italy, a geoadditive mixed model of rainfall extremes is developed. Most of the territory of Arno River has suffered in the past of many severe hydro-geological events, with high levels of risk due to the vulnerability of a unique artistic and cultural heritage. The area has a complex topography that greatly influences the precipitation regime. The dataset is composed by the time series of the annual maxima of daily rainfall recorded in about 400 rain gauges, spatially distributed over the catchment area of about 8.800 km2. The record period covers mainly the second half of 20th century. The rainfall observations are assumed to follow generalized extreme value distributions whose locations are spatially dependent and where the dependence is captured using a geoadditive model. In particular, since rainfall has a natural spatial domain and a significant spatial variability, a spatial hierarchical model for extremes is used. The spatial hierarchical models, in fact, take into account data from all locations, borrowing strength from neighbouring locations when they estimate parameters and are of great interest when small set of data is available, as in the case of rainfall extreme values. Together with rain gauges location variables further physiographic variables are investigated as explanation variables. The implemented geoadditive mixed model of spatially referenced time series of rainfall extreme values, is able to capture the spatial dynamics of the rainfall extreme phenomenon. Since the model shows evidence of a spatial trend in the rainfall extreme dynamic, the temporal dynamic and the time influence can be also taken into account. The implemented

  8. Event-chain Monte Carlo for classical continuous spin models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michel, Manon; Mayer, Johannes; Krauth, Werner

    2015-10-01

    We apply the event-chain Monte Carlo algorithm to classical continuum spin models on a lattice and clarify the condition for its validity. In the two-dimensional XY model, it outperforms the local Monte Carlo algorithm by two orders of magnitude, although it remains slower than the Wolff cluster algorithm. In the three-dimensional XY spin glass model at low temperature, the event-chain algorithm is far superior to the other algorithms.

  9. Discrete Event Simulation Modeling and Analysis of Key Leader Engagements

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-06-01

    SIMULATION MODELING AND ANALYSIS OF KEY LEADER ENGAGEMENTS by Clifford C. Wakeman June 2012 Thesis Co-Advisors: Arnold H. Buss Susan...DATE June 2012 3. REPORT TYPE AND DATES COVERED Master’s Thesis 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Discrete Event Simulation Modeling and Analysis of Key...for public release; distribution is unlimited DISCRETE EVENT SIMULATION MODELING AND ANALYSIS OF KEY LEADER ENGAGEMENTS Clifford C. Wakeman

  10. Jiamusi Pulsar Observations: I. Abnormal emission events of PSR B0919+06

    CERN Document Server

    Han, Jun; Peng, Ling-Xiang; Tang, De-Yu; Wang, Jun; Li, Jun-Qiang; Wang, Chen; Yu, Ye-Zhao; Dong, Bin

    2016-01-01

    PSR B0919+06 generally radiates radio pulses in a normal phase range. It has been known for its occasional perplexing abnormal emission events wherein individual pulses come to an earlier phase range for a few tens of periods and then returns to its usual phase. Heretofore, only a few such events have been available for study. We observed PSR B0919+06 for about 30 hours using the Jiamusi 66-m telescope at Jiamusi Deep Space Station at S-band, and detected 92 abnormal emission events. We identify four types of events based on the abrupted or gradual phase-shifting of individual pulses. The abnormal emission events are seen to occur randomly some every 1000 to 3000 periods, and they affect the leading edge of the mean profile by up to 2\\% in amplitude. The abnormal emission events are probably related to gradual changes of emission processing in the pulsar magnetosphere.

  11. Integrating Behaviour in Software Models: An Event Coordination Notation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kindler, Ekkart

    2011-01-01

    One of the main problems in model-based software engineering is modelling behaviour in such a way that the behaviour models can be easily integrated with each other, with the structural software models and with pre-existing software. In this paper, we propose an event coordination notation (ECNO)...

  12. Discrete event simulation: Modeling simultaneous complications and outcomes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Quik, E.H.; Feenstra, T.L.; Krabbe, P.F.M.

    2012-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: To present an effective and elegant model approach to deal with specific characteristics of complex modeling. METHODS: A discrete event simulation (DES) model with multiple complications and multiple outcomes that each can occur simultaneously was developed. In this DES model parameters,

  13. Automatic detection of volcano-seismic events by modeling state and event duration in hidden Markov models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhatti, Sohail Masood; Khan, Muhammad Salman; Wuth, Jorge; Huenupan, Fernando; Curilem, Millaray; Franco, Luis; Yoma, Nestor Becerra

    2016-09-01

    In this paper we propose an automatic volcano event detection system based on Hidden Markov Model (HMM) with state and event duration models. Since different volcanic events have different durations, therefore the state and whole event durations learnt from the training data are enforced on the corresponding state and event duration models within the HMM. Seismic signals from the Llaima volcano are used to train the system. Two types of events are employed in this study, Long Period (LP) and Volcano-Tectonic (VT). Experiments show that the standard HMMs can detect the volcano events with high accuracy but generates false positives. The results presented in this paper show that the incorporation of duration modeling can lead to reductions in false positive rate in event detection as high as 31% with a true positive accuracy equal to 94%. Further evaluation of the false positives indicate that the false alarms generated by the system were mostly potential events based on the signal-to-noise ratio criteria recommended by a volcano expert.

  14. Uncertainty analysis in statistical modeling of extreme hydrological events

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Xu, Yue-Ping; Booij, Martijn J.; Tong, Yang-Bin

    2010-01-01

    With the increase of both magnitude and frequency of hydrological extreme events such as drought and flooding, the significance of adequately modeling hydrological extreme events is fully recognized. Estimation of extreme rainfall/flood for various return periods is of prime importance for hydrologi

  15. Model Observers in Medical Imaging Research

    OpenAIRE

    He, Xin; Park, Subok

    2013-01-01

    Model observers play an important role in the optimization and assessment of imaging devices. In this review paper, we first discuss the basic concepts of model observers, which include the mathematical foundations and psychophysical considerations in designing both optimal observers for optimizing imaging systems and anthropomorphic observers for modeling human observers. Second, we survey a few state-of-the-art computational techniques for estimating model observers and the principles of im...

  16. Modeling discrete time-to-event data

    CERN Document Server

    Tutz, Gerhard

    2016-01-01

    This book focuses on statistical methods for the analysis of discrete failure times. Failure time analysis is one of the most important fields in statistical research, with applications affecting a wide range of disciplines, in particular, demography, econometrics, epidemiology and clinical research. Although there are a large variety of statistical methods for failure time analysis, many techniques are designed for failure times that are measured on a continuous scale. In empirical studies, however, failure times are often discrete, either because they have been measured in intervals (e.g., quarterly or yearly) or because they have been rounded or grouped. The book covers well-established methods like life-table analysis and discrete hazard regression models, but also introduces state-of-the art techniques for model evaluation, nonparametric estimation and variable selection. Throughout, the methods are illustrated by real life applications, and relationships to survival analysis in continuous time are expla...

  17. Predicting extreme rainfall events over Jeddah, Saudi Arabia: Impact of data assimilation with conventional and satellite observations

    KAUST Repository

    Viswanadhapalli, Yesubabu

    2015-08-20

    The impact of variational data assimilation for predicting two heavy rainfall events that caused devastating floods in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia is studied using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. On 25 November 2009 and 26 January 2011, the city was deluged with more than double the annual rainfall amount caused by convective storms. We used a high resolution, two-way nested domain WRF model to simulate the two rainfall episodes. Simulations include control runs initialized with National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecasting System (GFS) data and 3-Dimensional Variational (3DVAR) data assimilation experiments conducted by assimilating NCEP prepbufr and radiance observations. Observations from Automated Weather Stations (AWS), synoptic charts, radar reflectivity and satellite pictures from the Presidency of Meteorology and Environment (PME), Jeddah, Saudi Arabia are used to assess the forecasting results. To evaluate the impact of the different assimilated observational datasets on the simulation of the major flooding event of 2009, we conducted 3DVAR experiments assimilating individual sources and a combination of all data sets. Results suggest that while the control run had a tendency to predict the storm earlier than observed, the assimilation of profile observations greatly improved the model\\'s thermodynamic structure and lead to better representation of simulated rainfall both in timing and amount. The experiment with assimilation of all available observations compared best with observed rainfall in terms of timing of the storm and rainfall distribution, demonstrating the importance of assimilating different types of observations. Retrospective experiments with and without data assimilation, for three different model lead times (48, 72 and 96-h), were performed to examine the skill of WRF model to predict the heavy rainfall events. Quantitative rainfall analysis of these simulations suggests that 48-h lead time runs with

  18. Alternative source models of very low frequency events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gomberg, Joan S.; Agnew, D.C.; Schwartz, S.Y.

    2016-01-01

    We present alternative source models for very low frequency (VLF) events, previously inferred to be radiation from individual slow earthquakes that partly fill the period range between slow slip events lasting thousands of seconds and low-frequency earthquakes (LFE) with durations of tenths of a second. We show that VLF events may emerge from bandpass filtering a sum of clustered, shorter duration, LFE signals, believed to be the components of tectonic tremor. Most published studies show VLF events occurring concurrently with tremor bursts and LFE signals. Our analysis of continuous data from Costa Rica detected VLF events only when tremor was also occurring, which was only 7% of the total time examined. Using analytic and synthetic models, we show that a cluster of LFE signals produces the distinguishing characteristics of VLF events, which may be determined by the cluster envelope. The envelope may be diagnostic of a single, dynamic, slowly slipping event that propagates coherently over kilometers or represents a narrowly band-passed version of nearly simultaneous arrivals of radiation from slip on multiple higher stress drop and/or faster propagating slip patches with dimensions of tens of meters (i.e., LFE sources). Temporally clustered LFE sources may be triggered by single or multiple distinct aseismic slip events or represent the nearly simultaneous chance occurrence of background LFEs. Given the nonuniqueness in possible source durations, we suggest it is premature to draw conclusions about VLF event sources or how they scale.

  19. Experience with the CMS Event Data Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Elmer, P.; /Princeton U.; Hegner, B.; /CERN; Sexton-Kennedy, L.; /Fermilab

    2009-06-01

    The re-engineered CMS EDM was presented at CHEP in 2006. Since that time we have gained a lot of operational experience with the chosen model. We will present some of our findings, and attempt to evaluate how well it is meeting its goals. We will discuss some of the new features that have been added since 2006 as well as some of the problems that have been addressed. Also discussed is the level of adoption throughout CMS, which spans the trigger farm up to the final physics analysis. Future plans, in particular dealing with schema evolution and scaling, will be discussed briefly.

  20. Underlying-event sensitive observables in Drell-Yan production using GENEVA

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alioli, Simone [CERN Theory Division, Geneva 23 (Switzerland); Bauer, Christian W.; Guns, Sam [University of California, Ernest Orlando Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA (United States); Tackmann, Frank J. [Theory Group, Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron (DESY), Hamburg (Germany)

    2016-11-15

    We present an extension of the Geneva Monte Carlo framework to include multiple parton interactions (MPI) provided by Pythia8. This allows us to obtain predictions for underlying-event sensitive measurements in Drell-Yan production, in conjunction with Geneva 's fully differential NNLO calculation, NNLL{sup '} resummation for the 0-jet resolution variable (beam thrust), and NLL resummation for the 1-jet resolution variable. We describe the interface with the parton-shower algorithm and MPI model of Pythia8, which preserves both the precision of the partonic N-jet cross sections in Geneva as well as the shower accuracy and good description of soft hadronic physics of Pythia8. We present results for several underlying-event sensitive observables and compare to data from ATLAS and CMS as well as to standalone Pythia8 predictions. This includes a comparison with the recent ATLAS measurement of the beam thrust spectrum, which provides a potential avenue to fully disentangle the physical effects from the primary hard interaction, primary soft radiation, multiple parton interactions, and nonperturbative hadronization. (orig.)

  1. Continuous ground-based aerosol Lidar observation during seasonal pollution events at Wuxi, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong, Man Sing; Qin, Kai; Lian, Hong; Campbell, James R.; Lee, Kwon Ho; Sheng, Shijie

    2017-04-01

    Haze pollution has long been a significant research topic and challenge in China, with adverse effects on air quality, agricultural production, as well as human health. In coupling with ground-based Lidar measurements, air quality observation, meteorological data, and backward trajectories model, two typical haze events at Wuxi, China are analyzed respectively, depicting summer and winter scenarios. Results indicate that the winter haze pollution is a compound pollution process mainly affected by calm winds that induce pollution accumulation near the surface. In the summer case, with the exception of influence from PM2.5 concentrations, ozone is the main pollutant and regional transport is also a significant influencing factor. Both events are marked by enhanced PM2.5 concentrations, driven by anthropogenic emissions of pollutants such as vehicle exhaust and factory fumes. Meteorological factors such as wind speed/direction and relative humidity are also contributed. These results indicate how the vertical profile offered by routine regional Lidar monitoring helps aid in understanding local variability and trends, which may be adapted for developing abatement strategies that improve air quality.

  2. Underlying event sensitive observables in Drell-Yan production using GENEVA

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alioli, Simone [CERN - European Organization for Nuclear Research, Geneva (Switzerland). Theory Div.; Bauer, Christian W.; Guns, Sam [California Univ., Berkeley, CA (United States). Ernest Orlando Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory; Tackmann, Frank J. [DESY Hamburg (Germany). Theory Group

    2016-05-15

    We present an extension of the GENEVA Monte Carlo framework to include multiple parton interactions (MPI) provided by PYTHIA8. This allows us to obtain predictions for underlying-event sensitive measurements in Drell-Yan production, in conjunction with GENEVA's fully-differential NNLO calculation, NNLL{sup '} resummation for the 0-jet resolution variable (beam thrust), and NLL resummation for the 1-jet resolution variable. We describe the interface with the parton shower algorithm and MPI model of PYTHIA8, which preserves both the precision of partonic N-jet cross sections in GENEVA as well as the shower accuracy and good description of soft hadronic physics of PYTHIA8. We present results for several underlying-event sensitive observables and compare to data from ATLAS and CMS as well as to standalone PYTHIA8 predictions. This includes a comparison with the recent ATLAS measurement of the beam thrust spectrum, which provides a potential avenue to fully disentangle the physical effects from the primary hard interaction, primary soft radiation, multiple parton interactions, and nonperturbative hadronization.

  3. Underlying event sensitive observables in Drell-Yan production using GENEVA

    CERN Document Server

    Alioli, Simone; Guns, Sam; Tackmann, Frank J.

    2016-01-01

    We present an extension of the GENEVA Monte Carlo framework to include multiple parton interactions (MPI) provided by PYTHIA8. This allows us to obtain predictions for underlying-event sensitive measurements in Drell-Yan production, in conjunction with GENEVA's fully-differential NNLO calculation, NNLL' resummation for the 0-jet resolution variable (beam thrust), and NLL resummation for the 1-jet resolution variable. We describe the interface with the parton shower algorithm and MPI model of PYTHIA8, which preserves both the precision of partonic N-jet cross sections in GENEVA as well as the shower accuracy and good description of soft hadronic physics of PYTHIA8. We present results for several underlying-event sensitive observables and compare to data from ATLAS and CMS as well as to standalone PYTHIA8 predictions. This includes a comparison with the recent ATLAS measurement of the beam thrust spectrum, which provides a potential avenue to fully disentangle the physical effects from the primary hard interact...

  4. Underlying-event sensitive observables in Drell-Yan production using GENEVA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alioli, Simone; Bauer, Christian W.; Guns, Sam; Tackmann, Frank J.

    2016-11-01

    We present an extension of the Geneva Monte Carlo framework to include multiple parton interactions (MPI) provided by Pythia8. This allows us to obtain predictions for underlying-event sensitive measurements in Drell-Yan production, in conjunction with Geneva 's fully differential NNLO calculation, NNLL' resummation for the 0-jet resolution variable (beam thrust), and NLL resummation for the 1-jet resolution variable. We describe the interface with the parton-shower algorithm and MPI model of Pythia8, which preserves both the precision of the partonic N-jet cross sections in Geneva as well as the shower accuracy and good description of soft hadronic physics of Pythia8. We present results for several underlying-event sensitive observables and compare to data from ATLAS and CMS as well as to standalone Pythia8 predictions. This includes a comparison with the recent ATLAS measurement of the beam thrust spectrum, which provides a potential avenue to fully disentangle the physical effects from the primary hard interaction, primary soft radiation, multiple parton interactions, and nonperturbative hadronization.

  5. Discrete Event Simulation Modeling of Radiation Medicine Delivery Methods

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Paul M. Lewis; Dennis I. Serig; Rick Archer

    1998-12-31

    The primary objective of this work was to evaluate the feasibility of using discrete event simulation (DES) modeling to estimate the effects on system performance of changes in the human, hardware, and software elements of radiation medicine delivery methods.

  6. Revisiting the Carrington Event: Updated modeling of atmospheric effects

    CERN Document Server

    Thomas, Brian C; Snyder, Brock R

    2011-01-01

    The terrestrial effects of major solar events such as the Carrington white-light flare and subsequent geomagnetic storm of August-September 1859 are of considerable interest, especially in light of recent predictions that such extreme events will be more likely over the coming decades. Here we present results of modeling the atmospheric effects, especially production of odd nitrogen compounds and subsequent depletion of ozone, by solar protons associated with the Carrington event. This study combines approaches from two previous studies of the atmospheric effect of this event. We investigate changes in NOy compounds as well as depletion of O3 using a two-dimensional atmospheric chemistry and dynamics model. Atmospheric ionization is computed using a range-energy relation with four different proxy proton spectra associated with more recent well-known solar proton events. We find that changes in atmospheric constituents are in reasonable agreement with previous studies, but effects of the four proxy spectra use...

  7. Topic Modeling Based Image Clustering by Events in Social Media

    OpenAIRE

    2016-01-01

    Social event detection in large photo collections is very challenging and multimodal clustering is an effective methodology to deal with the problem. Geographic information is important in event detection. This paper proposed a topic model based approach to estimate the missing geographic information for photos. The approach utilizes a supervised multimodal topic model to estimate the joint distribution of time, geographic, content, and attached textual information. Then we annotate the missi...

  8. OpenGGCM-RCM modeling of SAPS events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raeder, J.; Cramer, W. D.; Jensen, J. B.; Toffoletto, F. R.; Sazykin, S. Y.; Vo, H. B.

    2015-12-01

    Sub-Auroral Polarization Streams (SAPS), also known as Sub-Auroral Ion Drifts (SAIDs), are fast westward flows in the ionosphere that occur at latitudes lower than auroral precipitation, and well separated from the high-latitude convection pattern. Although SAPS were first observed in the ionosphere, they can also be seen in the magnetosphere and are believed to be driven by a combination of region-2 currents and low ionospheric conductance. SAPS are thus governed both by magnetosphere and ionosphere processes and require self-consistently coupled models of the outer magnetosphere, the inner magnetosphere and the ring current, and the ionosphere-thermosphere system. Here, we present first results from the OpenGGCM-RCM coupled model, which includes all of the required physical processes and feedbacks. In particular, the ionospheric conductance is computed self-consistently from both magnetosphere electron precipitation, solar ionization, and ionospheric chemistry within the fully dynamical CTIM sub model of OpenGGCM. Furthermore, CTIM includes the recombination feedback of streaming ions. We focus on the GEM-CEDAR storm events of 2013-03-17, 2011-04-27, 2012-05-07, and 2012-09-02. We show that the coupled model produces SAPS that compare well with data in terms of location, extent, and magnitude. By modifying the conductances in the code we evaluate the potential positive feedback process of the ionospheric conductance on SAPS.

  9. Observable Emission Features of Black Hole GRMHD Jets on Event Horizon Scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pu, Hung-Yi; Wu, Kinwah; Younsi, Ziri; Asada, Keiichi; Mizuno, Yosuke; Nakamura, Masanori

    2017-08-01

    The general-relativistic magnetohydrodynamical (GRMHD) formulation for black hole-powered jets naturally gives rise to a stagnation surface, where inflows and outflows along magnetic field lines that thread the black hole event horizon originate. We derive a conservative formulation for the transport of energetic electrons, which are initially injected at the stagnation surface and subsequently transported along flow streamlines. With this formulation the energy spectra evolution of the electrons along the flow in the presence of radiative and adiabatic cooling is determined. For flows regulated by synchrotron radiative losses and adiabatic cooling, the effective radio emission region is found to be finite, and geometrically it is more extended along the jet central axis. Moreover, the emission from regions adjacent to the stagnation surface is expected to be the most luminous as this is where the freshly injected energetic electrons are concentrated. An observable stagnation surface is thus a strong prediction of the GRMHD jet model with the prescribed non-thermal electron injection. Future millimeter/submillimeter (mm/sub-mm) very-long-baseline interferometric observations of supermassive black hole candidates, such as the one at the center of M87, can verify this GRMHD jet model and its associated non-thermal electron injection mechanism.

  10. GEOS-2 observations of energetic electrons in the morning sector during auroral radio absorption events

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Collis, P.N.; Korth, A.

    1985-04-01

    The temporal development of two auroral absorption events in the morning sector is compared with simultaneous observations of electrons from the satellite GEOS-2, utilizing the good energy resolution over the range 15-300 keV to show that the electrons effective in contributing to the observed radio absorption are confined to the range 30-130 keV. By far the most important are those below 80 keV, and as a geophysical monitor the riometer may be considered an efficient indicator of electron fluxes of energy typically of 60-70 keV. The ionospheric effects of the precipitated fluxes are predicted, and the results used to discuss the validity of the model atmosphere and of the profiles of effective recombination coefficient and specific absorption. Integration of the calculated profiles of incremental radio absorption yields total estimates within 30 percent of the observed intensities. The absorbing layer maximizes at altitudes of 85-90 km and has a typical half-height of 25 km. It is shown further that the electron-flux characteristics are consistent with gradient-curvature drift from a particle source in the midnight sector. 33 references.

  11. NOAA POES Observations of Relativistic Electron Precipitation during a Radiation Belt Depletion Event

    Science.gov (United States)

    Millan, R. M.; Yando, K.; Green, J. C.

    2008-12-01

    We present POES observations of relativistic electron precipitation during an electron depletion event observed by GOES and GPS. On January 19, 2000 NOAA-15 passed very near the MAXIS balloon payload (L=4.7) which detected an intense duskside precipitation event (Millan et al., 2007). Recent work has shown that the NOAA MEPED proton detector responds to electrons above ~700 keV. We combine data from this high energy channel with data from the MEPED electron detector to examine the energy distribution and spatial extent of precipitation during this period. The results are compared with the MAXIS balloon observations.

  12. Spitzer Observations of Mutual Events in the Binary System (617) Patroclus-Menoetius

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mueller, Michael; Marchis, F.; Emery, J. P.; Berthier, J.; Hestroffer, D.; Harris, A.; Descamps, P.; Vachier, F.; Mottola, S.

    2007-01-01

    We report Spitzer observations of the binary Trojan system (617) Patroclus-Menoetius during two mutual events, when respectively one component shadowed and occulted the other. Observing the thermal response to mutual shadowing with spectral ( 8--33 µm) and temporal resolution allowed us to determine

  13. An Observational Analysis of Coaching Behaviors for Career Development Event Teams: A Mixed Methods Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ball, Anna L.; Bowling, Amanda M.; Sharpless, Justin D.

    2016-01-01

    School Based Agricultural Education (SBAE) teachers can use coaching behaviors, along with their agricultural content knowledge to help their Career Development Event (CDE) teams succeed. This mixed methods, collective case study observed three SBAE teachers preparing multiple CDEs throughout the CDE season. The teachers observed had a previous…

  14. Model observers in medical imaging research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Xin; Park, Subok

    2013-10-04

    Model observers play an important role in the optimization and assessment of imaging devices. In this review paper, we first discuss the basic concepts of model observers, which include the mathematical foundations and psychophysical considerations in designing both optimal observers for optimizing imaging systems and anthropomorphic observers for modeling human observers. Second, we survey a few state-of-the-art computational techniques for estimating model observers and the principles of implementing these techniques. Finally, we review a few applications of model observers in medical imaging research.

  15. Regional and local new particle formation events observed in the Yangtze River Delta region, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dai, Liang; Wang, Honglei; Zhou, Luyu; An, Junlin; Tang, Lili; Lu, Chunsong; Yan, Wenlian; Liu, Ruiyang; Kong, Shaofei; Chen, Mindong; Lee, Shanhu; Yu, Huan

    2017-02-01

    To study the spatial inhomogeneity of new particle formation (NPF) in the polluted atmosphere of China, we conducted simultaneous measurements at an urban site near a petrochemical industrial area and a regional background site in the Yangtze River Delta region from September to November 2015. At the urban site we observed a type of local NPF event (number of events: n = 5), in which nucleation was limited to a small area but persisted for 6.8 h on average during the daytime. Formation rates of 5 nm particles (J5) were found to be correlated positively with the H2SO4 proxy (log J5 versus log[H2SO4] slope near 1) in both local and regional events. Furthermore, J5 was enhanced by the anthropogenic volatile organic carbon (VOC) plumes from nearby industrial area in the local events compared to the regional events. Size-dependent aerosol dynamics calculation showed that in comparison with the observed regional events, the local events were featured with high nucleation rate (J1.3 > 1000 cm-3 s-1), high growth rate of sub-3 nm particles (GRsub-3 > 20 nm h-1), and high number concentration of nucleation mode particles (mean peak N5-20: 6 × 104 cm-3). Considering these features, the local NPF events of anthropogenic origin may also be an important contributor to cloud condensation nuclei concentrations in urban and regional scales. In addition, the comparison of simultaneous regional NPF events between the two sites (number of events: n = 7) suggested that regional NPF intensity may be underestimated by the single-point measurement at an urban site, due to the heterogeneity of air masses.

  16. Video and photometric observations of a sprite in coincidence with a meteor-triggered jet event

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Suszcynsky, D. M. [Space and Atmospheric Sciences Group, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, New Mexico (United States); Strabley, R. [Space and Atmospheric Sciences Group, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, New Mexico (United States); Roussel-Dupre, R. [Atmospheric and Climate Sciences Group, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, New Mexico (United States); Symbalisty, E. M. D. [Atmospheric and Climate Sciences Group, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, New Mexico (United States); Armstrong, R. A. [Mission Research Corporation, Nashua, New Hampshire (United States); Lyons, W. A. [FMA Research Inc., Fort Collins, Colorado (United States); Taylor, M. [Space Dynamics Laboratory, Utah State University, Logan (United States)

    1999-12-27

    Video and photometric observations of a meteor-triggered ''jet'' event in association with the occurrence of a sprite were collected during the SPRITES '98 campaign. The event raises interest in the question of possible meteoric triggering of upper atmospheric transients as originally suggested by Muller [1995]. The event consisted of three stages: (1) the observation of a moderately bright meteor, (2) the development of a sprite in the immediate vicinity of the meteor as the meteor reached no lower than {approx}70 km altitude, and (3) a slower-forming jet of luminosity that appeared during the late stages of the sprite and propagated back up the ionization trail of the meteor. The event is analyzed in terms of its geometry, its relevance to the meteor, and the implications to existing theories for sprite formation. (c) 1999 American Geophysical Union.

  17. Observation and Interpretation of Energetic Neutral Hydrogen Atoms from the December 5, 2006 Solar Event

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mewaldt, R. A.; Leske, R. A.; Stone, E. C.; Barghouty, A. F.; Shih, A. Y.; von Rosenvinge, T. T.; Labrador, A. W.; Cohen, C. M. S.; Cummings, A. C.; Cummings, A. C.

    2009-01-01

    We report the first observations of energetic neutral atoms (ENAs) from a solar flare/coronal mass ejection event. The observations were made during the December 5, 2006 X9 solar flare, located at E79, by the Low Energy Telescopes (LETs) on the STEREO A and B spacecraft. Within 1-2 hours of the flare onset, both LETs observed a sudden burst of 1.6 to 15 MeV protons arriving hours before the onset of the main solar energetic particle (SEP) event at Earth. More than 70% of these particles arrived from a longitude within +-10 degrees of the Sun. The derived emission profile at the Sun lasted for more than an hour and had a profile remarkably similar to the GOES soft X-ray profile. The observed arrival directions and energy spectrum argue strongly that the particle events atoms that were stripped of their electrons upon entering the LET sensor. To our knowledge, this is the first reported observation of ENA emission from a solar flare/coronal mass ejection. We discuss possible origins for the production of ENAs in solar events, including charge-transfer reactions involving both flare and shock-accelerated protons. Assuming isotropic emission, we find that 2 x 10E28 ENAs escaped from the Sun in the upper hemisphere. Based on the 2.2 MeV gamma-ray emission observed by RHESSI in this event, and using measured and theoretical cross sections, we estimate that 3 x 10E31 ENAs with 1.8 - 5 MeV could be produced by protons accelerated in the flare. CME-driven shock acceleration is also a possible ENA source, but unfortunately there were no CME observations available from this event. Taking into account ENA losses, we conclude that the observed ENAs were most likely produced in the high corona at heliocentric distances 1.6 solar radii.

  18. Advanced development of the spectrum sciences Model 5005-TF, single-event test fixture

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ackermann, M.R.; Browning, J.S. (Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (USA)); Hughlock, B.W. (Boeing Aerospace and Electronics Co., Seattle, WA (USA)); Lum, G.K. (Lockheed Missiles and Space Co., Sunnyvale, CA (USA)); Tsacoyeanes, W.C. (Draper (Charles Stark) Lab., Inc., Cambridge, MA (USA)); Weeks, M.D. (Spectrum Sciences, Inc., Santa Clara, CA (USA))

    1990-09-01

    This report summarizes the advanced development of the Spectrum Sciences Model 5005-TF, Single-Event Test Fixture. The Model 5005-TF uses a Californium-252 (Cf-252) fission-fragment source to test integrated circuits and other devices for the effects of single-event phenomena. Particle identification methods commonly used in high-energy physics research and nuclear engineering have been incorporated into the Model 5005-TF for estimating the particle charge, mass, and energy parameters. All single-event phenomena observed in a device under test (DUT) are correlated with an identified fission fragment, and its linear energy transfer (LET) and range in the semiconductor material of the DUT.

  19. Observations and modelling of snow avalanche entrainment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Sovilla

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper full scale avalanche dynamics measurements from the Italian Pizzac and Swiss Vallée de la Sionne test sites are used to develop a snowcover entrainment model. A detailed analysis of three avalanche events shows that snowcover entrainment at the avalanche front appears to dominate over bed erosion at the basal sliding surface. Furthermore, the distribution of mass within the avalanche body is primarily a function of basal friction. We show that the mass distribution in the avalanche changes the flow dynamics significantly. Two different dynamical models, the Swiss Voellmy-fluid model and the Norwegian NIS model, are used to back calculate the events. Various entrainment methods are investigated and compared to measurements. We demon-strate that the Norwegian NIS model is clearly better able to simulate the events once snow entrainment has been included in the simulations.

  20. Characteristics of Four Upward-pointing Cosmic-ray-like Events Observed with ANITA

    CERN Document Server

    Gorham, P W; Romero-Wolf, A; Hoover, S; Allison, P; Banerjee, O; Beatty, J J; Belov, K; Besson, D Z; Binns, W R; Bugaev, V; Cao, P; Chen, C; Chen, P; Clem, J M; Connolly, A; Dailey, B; Deaconu, C; Cremonesi, L; Dowkonnt, P F; Duvernois, M A; Field, R C; Fox, B D; Goldstein, D; Gordon, J; Hast, C; Hebert, C L; Hill, B; Hughes, K; Hupe, R; Israel, M H; Javaid, A; Kowalski, J; Lam, J; Learned, J G; Liewer, K M; Liu, T C; Link, J T; Lusczek, E; Matsuno, S; Mercurio, B C; Miki, C; Miocinovic, P; Mottram, M; Mulrey, K; Naudet, C J; Ng, J; Nichol, R J; Palladino, K; Rauch, B F; Reil, K; Roberts, J; Rosen, M; Rotter, B; Russell, J; Ruckman, L; Saltzberg, D; Seckel, D; Schoorlemmer, H; Stafford, S; Stockham, J; Stockham, M; Strutt, B; Tatem, K; Urdaneta, D; Varner, G S; Vieregg, A G; Walz, D; Wissel, S A; Wu, F

    2016-01-01

    We report on four radio-detected cosmic-ray (CR) or CR-like events observed with the Antarctic Impulsive Transient Antenna (ANITA), a NASA-sponsored long-duration balloon payload. Two of the four were previously identified as Earth-skimming CR air showers. A third Earth-skimming CR was detected during the ANITA-II flight. Here we report characteristics these three unusual CR events, which develop nearly horizontally, 20-30 km above the surface of the Earth. In addition, we report on one additional more steeply upward-pointing CR-like event which has characteristics not easily explained by a CR hypothesis.

  1. Unusual Solar Radio Events Observed by the Wind and STEREO Spacecraft

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacDowall, R. J.; Hess, R. A.

    2014-12-01

    We present several unusual solar radio events observed by the Wind spacecraft. These events - type II and type III bursts - show significant unexpected time-frequency structure that is likely due to interaction of the electron beam sources with atypical density variations of the solar wind. These events permit us to test our understanding of the emission processes, as well as demonstrating the remote detection of solar wind structure. We will also report on updates to the Wind Waves website at NASA GSFC of interest to radio data users.

  2. Analysis of ΔO2/ΔCO2 ratios for the pollution events observed at Hateruma Island, Japan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Maksyutov

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Pollution events extracted from the in situ observations of atmospheric CO2 and O2 mixing ratios at Hateruma Island (HAT, 24° N, 124° E during the period from October 2006 and December 2008 are examined. The air mass origins for the pollution events are categorized by using back trajectory analysis, and the oxidative ratios (OR = −O2:CO2 molar exchange ratio for selected pollution events are calculated. We find that there is a significant difference in the average oxidative ratios between events from China (OR = 1.14 ± 0.12, n = 25 and Japan/Korea (OR = 1.37 ± 0.15, n = 16. These values are in a good agreement with the national average oxidative ratios for the emissions from fossil fuel burning and cement production (FFBC in China (ORFFBC = 1.11 ± 0.03 and Korea/Japan (ORFFBC = 1.36 ± 0.02. Compared with the observation, simulations of the atmospheric O2 and CO2 mixing ratios using Lagrangian particle dispersion models do a good job in reconstructing the average oxidative ratio of the pollution events originating in China but tend to underestimate for events originating in Japan/Korea. A sensitivity test suggests that the simulated atmospheric oxidative ratios at HAT are especially sensitive to changes in Chinese fuel mix.

  3. Analysis of ΔO2/ΔCO2 ratios for the pollution events observed at Hateruma Island, Japan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Maksyutov

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available In-situ observations of atmospheric CO2 and O2 concentrations at Hateruma Island (HAT, 24° N, 124° E often show synoptic scale pollution events when air masses are transported from East Asian source regions. We calculate the regression slopes (-ΔO2/ΔCO2 molar ratios of the correlation plots between O2 and CO2 for selected pollution events observed between October 2006 and December 2008. The observed -ΔO2/ΔCO2 ratios vary from 1.0 to 1.7. Categorizing the air mass origins for the pollution events by using back trajectory analysis, we find that there is a significant difference in the average -ΔO2/ΔCO2 ratios between events from China (1.14±0.12, n = 25 and Japan/Korea (1.37±0.15, n = 16. These values are comparable to the -O2:CO2 molar exchange ratios, which are estimated from the national fossil fuel inventories from CDIAC. Simulations using a particle dispersion model reveal that the pollution events at HAT are predominantly CO2 emissions from the combustion of fossil fuels in East Asian countries, which is consistent with the above observational results. Although the average value of the model-predicted -ΔO2/ΔCO2 ratios for Japan/Korea origin is underestimated in comparison with the observation, that for China origin agree well with the observation. The sensitivity experiment suggests that the -ΔO2/ΔCO2 ratio at HAT reflects about 90% of the change in the -O2:CO2 exchange ratio for the fossil carbon emissions from China.

  4. Analysis of ΔO2/ΔCO2 ratios for the pollution events observed at Hateruma Island, Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minejima, C.; Kubo, M.; Tohjima, Y.; Yamagishi, H.; Koyama, Y.; Maksyutov, S.; Kita, K.; Mukai, H.

    2011-05-01

    In-situ observations of atmospheric CO2 and O2 concentrations at Hateruma Island (HAT, 24° N, 124° E) often show synoptic scale pollution events when air masses are transported from East Asian source regions. We calculate the regression slopes (-ΔO2/ΔCO2 molar ratios) of the correlation plots between O2 and CO2 for selected pollution events observed between October 2006 and December 2008. The observed -ΔO2/ΔCO2 ratios vary from 1.0 to 1.7. Categorizing the air mass origins for the pollution events by using back trajectory analysis, we find that there is a significant difference in the average -ΔO2/ΔCO2 ratios between events from China (1.14±0.12, n = 25) and Japan/Korea (1.37±0.15, n = 16). These values are comparable to the -O2:CO2 molar exchange ratios, which are estimated from the national fossil fuel inventories from CDIAC. Simulations using a particle dispersion model reveal that the pollution events at HAT are predominantly CO2 emissions from the combustion of fossil fuels in East Asian countries, which is consistent with the above observational results. Although the average value of the model-predicted -ΔO2/ΔCO2 ratios for Japan/Korea origin is underestimated in comparison with the observation, that for China origin agree well with the observation. The sensitivity experiment suggests that the -ΔO2/ΔCO2 ratio at HAT reflects about 90% of the change in the -O2:CO2 exchange ratio for the fossil carbon emissions from China.

  5. Modeling of Slow Slip Events at the Hikurangi Subduction Margin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, C. A.; Wallace, L. M.; Beavan, R. J.; Lohman, R. B.; Ellis, S. M.; Marson-Pidgeon, K.; Eberhart-Phillips, D. M.; Reyners, M.; Henrys, S. A.; Bell, R. E.

    2011-12-01

    Slow slip events (SSEs) occur along nearly the entire Hikurangi subduction margin adjacent to the North Island, New Zealand. Long duration (1-2 years), deep (40- 60 km depth), large events (equivalent to Mw ~7.0) occur at the southern Hikurangi margin, while shallow (10-15 km depth), short (1-2 weeks), smaller events (equivalent to Mw ~6.5) occur at the northern and central Hikurangi margin. A recently-initiated shallow event (Castle Point) lies further to the south than previous shallow events and appears to be rupturing a portion of the plate interface that was previously thought to be locked. Since 2000, three major slow slip events have been identified at the southern Hikurangi margin; the 2003 Kapiti SSE, the 2004/2005 Manawatu SSE, and the 2007/2008 Kapiti SSE (which ended in early 2009). A repeat of the 2004/2005 Manawatu event is presently underway. In some cases, these SSEs may have triggered moderate seismicity within the subducting Pacific plate (e.g., Reyners and Bannister, 2007). To date, all of the inferred slip distributions for the SSEs have been obtained using elastic half-space dislocation models. Numerous recent studies of coseismic displacement fields have shown that variations in elastic properties and surface topography can influence the predicted deformation. In our initial work, we used a finite element model to evaluate the influence of material property variations on the predicted surface deformation field. Elastic properties were assigned based on a seismic velocity model, and slip distributions inferred from an elastic half-space model were applied. When compared to the elastic half- space model, we found that the heterogeneous models generally predict larger amounts of surface deformation, indicating that the half-space models may be overestimating the amount of slip. As the next phase in our study, we are using finite element models that include material property variations and topography to generate Green's functions for use in an

  6. First observations of transient luminous events in Indian sub-continent

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Singh, Rajesh; Maurya, Ajeet K.; Veenadhari, B.;

    2014-01-01

    The article offers information on the initial observations of flashes of lightning discharge observed above thunderstorms. It mentions that the transient luminous events (TLE) are classified on the basis of their geometrical shape and luminosity into Sprites, Halos and Blue Starters. It also focu...... focuses on the first sprite observed in the Indian subcontinent on April 11, 2012, whose optical measurements were conducted at Allahabad, India using the charge-coupled device camera system....

  7. Comparison between observations and model

    OpenAIRE

    Claußnitzer, Antje

    2010-01-01

    In recent years the development of numerical weather prediction models has shown great progress in the short-term and medium-range forecast of temperature, wind speed or direction and cloud coverage, but only little success in the quantitative precipitation forecast. Rainfall is one of the most difficult forecasting meteorological variable. To improve the numerical models, it is necessary to understand the rainfall processes. This thesis contributes towards an understanding since the precipit...

  8. Rupture directivity of fluid-induced microseismic events: Observations from an enhanced geothermal system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Folesky, Jonas; Kummerow, Jörn; Shapiro, Serge A.; Häring, Markus; Asanuma, Hiroshi

    2016-11-01

    The rupture process of fluid-induced microseismic events is still poorly understood, mainly due to usually small magnitudes and sparse monitoring geometries. The high-quality recordings of the earthquake sequence 2006-2007 at the enhanced geothermal system at Basel, Switzerland, constitute a rare exception, allowing a systematic directivity study of 195 events using the empirical Green's function method. We observe clear directivity signatures for about half the events which demonstrates that rupture directivity persists down to small magnitudes (ML˜1). The predominant rupture behavior is unilateral. We further find evidence that directivity is magnitude dependent and varies systematically with distance from the injection source. Whereas pore pressure seems to play the dominant role close to the injection source and no preferred rupture direction is observable, directivity aligns parallel to the event distribution with increasing distance (≳100 m) and is preferably oriented away from the injection point. The largest analyzed events (ML˜2) show a distinct behavior: They rupture toward the injection source, suggesting that they nucleate in the vicinity of the pressure front and propagate backward into the perturbed volume. This finding is of particular relevance for seismic hazard assessment of georeservoirs, since it implies that maximum event size is related to dimension of the fluid-perturbed volume. Our study also resolves rupture complexities for a small group of events. This shows that small fault heterogeneities exist down to a scale of a few tens of meters. The observation of directivity and complexity in induced microseismic events suggest that future source studies account for these phenomena.

  9. Observation of impulsive acoustic events and the excitation of solar oscillations. Annual report, 1 November 1991-31 October 1992

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Restaino, S.R.; Stebbins, R.T.; Goode, P.R.

    1992-12-04

    The five-minute solar oscillation has been exploited in numerous seismic studies in which internal properties of the Sun have been inferred. It is generally regarded that these modes are excited by turbulent convection in the Sun's outermost layers. We observe the oscillatory wakes caused by impulsive events, matching those described by Lamb (1909). These correspond to the events modeled by Goode, et al., which they associate with excitation of the global five-minute oscillations.... Sun: Oscillations, Sun: Atmospheric motions, Sun: Atmosphere.

  10. Investigating Visitors' and Facilitators' Experiences at International Observe the Moon Night Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wenger, Matthew; Buxner, Sanlyn; Jones, Andrea; Hsu, Brooke; Shaner, Andy; Bleacher, Lora; Day, Brian

    2014-11-01

    International Observe the Moon Night (InOMN) is an annual event where people around the world are encouraged to look up at the Moon and share in the excitement of lunar science and exploration. The Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) leads the coordination of InOMN, with support from partner NASA mission and institution teams, including the Solar System Exploration Research Virtual Institute (SSERVI) and the Lunar Atmosphere and Dust Environment Explorer (LADEE). In 2013, InOMN was held on October 12th and a total of 521 unique events were registered on the InOMN website from around the world. These 521 events were held in 56 different countries, 46% of which were events in the United States. The InOMN evaluation was designed to characterize the overall participation of sites and visitors, characterize the types of visitors who attended, understand visitors’ intentions for attending an InOMN event, and understand how can facilitators be better supported for future events. Data was collected from event facilitators before and after the event and from visitors at the event. The follow-up facilitator survey was designed to understand to what extent the InOMN hosts were aware of the LRO mission and more generally understand how to support InOMN events in the future. Thirty-eight visitor surveys were collected and 186 facilitators completed follow-up surveys to give us an insight into both visitors’ and facilitators’ experiences.Most of the visitors (67%) who responded to the surveys were new to InOMN and reported that they had not attended a previous InOMN event. As with the 2012 events, the findings from 2013 continue to support the findings that InOMN events are social experiences and that most visitors attend with other people. The majority of visitors attended in family groups (72%), and another 20% attended with groups of other individuals (friends or other groups) with only 7% attending by themselves. A majority of survey respondents were aware of the LRO

  11. Observation of hard processes in rapidity gap events in {gamma}p interactions at HERA

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ahmed, T.; Aid, S.; Andreev, V.; Andrieu, B.; Appuhn, R.D.; Arpagaus, M.; Babaev, A.; Baehr, J.; Ban, J.; Baranov, P.; Barrelet, E.; Bartel, W.; Barth, M.; Bassler, U.; Beck, H.P.; Behrend, H.J.; Belousov, A.; Berger, C.; Bergstein, H.; Bernardi, G.; Bernet, R.; Bertrand-Coremans, G.; Besancon, M.; Beyer, R.; Biddulph, P.; Bizot, J.C.; Blobel, V.; Borras, K.; Botterweck, F.; Boudry, V.; Braemer, A.; Brasse, F.; Braunschweig, W.; Brisson, V.; Bruncko, D.; Brune, C.; Buchholz, R.; Buengener, L.; Buerger, J.; Buesser, F.W.; Buniatian, A.; Burke, S.; Buschhorn, G.; Campbell, A.J.; Carli, T.; Charles, F.; Clarke, D.; Clegg, A.B.; Clerbaux, B.; Colombo, M.; Contreras, J.G.; Coughlan, J.A.; Courau, A.; Coutures, C.; Cozzika, G.; Criegee, L.; Cussans, D.G.; Cvach, J.; Dagoret, S.; Dainton, J.B.; Danilov, M.; Dau, W.D.; Daum, K.; David, M.; Deffur, E.; Delcourt, B.; Del Buono, L.; De Roeck, A.; De Wolf, E.A.; Di Nezza, P.; Dollfus, C.; Dowell, J.D.; Dreis, H.B.; Droutskoi, V.; Duboc, J.; Duellmann, D.; Duenger, O.; Duhm, H.; Ebert, J.; Ebert, T.R.; Eckerlin, G.; Efremenko, V.; Egli, S.; Ehrlichmann, H.; Eichenberger, S.; Eichler, R.; Eisele, F.; Eisenhandler, E.; Ellison, R.J.; Elsen, E.; Erdmann, M.; Erdmann, W.; Evrard, E.; Favart, L.; Fedotov, A.; Feeken, D.; Felst, R.; Feltesse, J.; Ferencei, J.; Ferrarotto, F.; Flamm, K.; Fleischer, M.; Flieser, M.; Fluegge, G.; Fomenko, A.; Fominykh, B.; Forbush, M.; Formanek, J.; Foster, J.M.; Franke, G.; Fretwurst, E.; Gabathuler, E.; Gabathuler, K.; Gamerdinger, K.; Garvey, J.; Gayler, J.; Gebauer, M.; Gellrich, A.; Genzel, H.; Gerhards, R.; Goerlach, U.; Goerlich, L.; Gogitidze, N.; Goldberg, M.; Goldner, D.; Gonzalez-Pineiro, B.; Goodall, A.M.; Gorelov, I.; Goritchev, P.; Grab, C.; Graessler, H.; Graessler, R.; Greenshaw, T.; Grindhammer, G.; Gruber, A.; Gruber, C.; Haack, J.; Haidt, D.; Hajduk, L.; Hamon, O.; Hampel, M.; Hanlon, E.M.; Hapke, M.; Haynes, W.J.; Heatherington, J.; Heinzelmann, G.; Henderson, R.C.W.; H1 Collaboration

    1995-02-06

    Events with no hadronic energy flow in a large interval of pseudo-rapidity in the proton direction are observed in photon-proton interactions at an average centre of mass energy left angle {radical}(s{sub {gamma}p}) right angle of 200 GeV. These events are interpreted as photon diffractive dissociation. Evidence for hard scattering in photon diffractive dissociation is demonstrated using inclusive single particle spectra, thrust as a function of transverse energy, and the observation of jet production. The data can be described by a Monte Carlo calculation including hard photon-pomeron scattering. ((orig.))

  12. Modelling of aircrew radiation exposure from solar particle events

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Al Anid, H.; Lewis, B.J.; Bennett, L.G.I. [Royal Military College of Canada, Dept. of Chemistry and Chemical Engineering, Kingston, Ontario (Canada)

    2008-07-01

    A transport code analysis using the Monte Carlo code, MCNPX, has been used to propagate an extrapolated particle spectrum based on GOES satellite measurements through the atmosphere to estimate aircrew radiation exposure due to solar particle events. Neutron monitor count rate data from ground stations around the world were used to benchmark the model calculations during several Ground Level Events (GLEs). In addition, a comparison was made between the model predictions and actual flight measurements made by some European investigators with various types of instrument used to measure the mixed radiation field during GLE 60 and 65. A computer-code has been further developed to implement the model for routine analysis. (author)

  13. Characterizing Drought Events from a Hydrological Model Ensemble

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Katie; Parry, Simon; Prudhomme, Christel; Hannaford, Jamie; Tanguy, Maliko; Barker, Lucy; Svensson, Cecilia

    2017-04-01

    Hydrological droughts are a slow onset natural hazard that can affect large areas. Within the United Kingdom there have been eight major drought events over the last 50 years, with several events acting at the continental scale, and covering the entire nation. Many of these events have lasted several years and had significant impacts on agriculture, the environment and the economy. Generally in the UK, due to a northwest-southeast gradient in rainfall and relief, as well as varying underlying geology, droughts tend to be most severe in the southeast, which can threaten water supplies to the capital in London. With the impacts of climate change likely to increase the severity and duration of drought events worldwide, it is crucial that we gain an understanding of the characteristics of some of the longer and more extreme droughts of the 19th and 20th centuries, so we may utilize this information in planning for the future. Hydrological models are essential both for reconstructing such events that predate streamflow records, and for use in drought forecasting. However, whilst the uncertainties involved in modelling hydrological extremes on the flooding end of the flow regime have been studied in depth over the past few decades, the uncertainties in simulating droughts and low flow events have not yet received such rigorous academic attention. The "Cascade of Uncertainty" approach has been applied to explore uncertainty and coherence across simulations of notable drought events from the past 50 years using the airGR family of daily lumped catchment models. Parameter uncertainty has been addressed using a Latin Hypercube sampled experiment of 500,000 parameter sets per model (GR4J, GR5J and GR6J), over more than 200 catchments across the UK. The best performing model parameterisations, determined using a multi-objective function approach, have then been taken forward for use in the assessment of the impact of model parameters and model structure on drought event

  14. Powering stochastic reliability models by discrete event simulation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kozine, Igor; Wang, Xiaoyun

    2012-01-01

    it difficult to find a solution to the problem. The power of modern computers and recent developments in discrete-event simulation (DES) software enable to diminish some of the drawbacks of stochastic models. In this paper we describe the insights we have gained based on using both Markov and DES models...

  15. SAS 3 observations of two X-ray transient events with precursors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoffman, J. A.; Lewin, W. H. G.; Doty, J.; Jernigan, J. G.; Haney, M.; Richardson, J. A.

    1978-01-01

    SAS 3 has observed two unusual fast transient X-ray events from different sources, one lasting about 150 s and one, approximately 1500 s. Both events were preceded by precursor pulses which lasted a few seconds and which rose and fell in less than 0.4 s. The precursors were separated from the 'main' events by several seconds, during which no X-rays were detected. There are similarities between the two main events and X-ray bursts in both their temporal and spectral evolution. The spectra of the main events started out much softer than the spectra of the precursors, became harder as they approached maximum intensity, and softened as they decayed. In the 1500-s event, X-rays with energies greater than 10 keV were delayed by about 80 s compared with 1.5-6-keV X-rays. A blackbody fit to the spectral data of the main event of approximately 1500-s duration gives a maximum temperature of 29 million K and a radius for the emitting region of at least about 9 km (at a distance of 10 kpc); this is similar to the temperature and sizes found for several X-ray burst sources.

  16. Enhancement and identification of dust events in the south-west region of Iran using satellite observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taghavi, F.; Owlad, E.; Ackerman, S. A.

    2017-03-01

    South-west Asia including the Middle East is one of the most prone regions to dust storm events. In recent years, there was an increase in the occurrence of these environmental and meteorological phenomena. Remote sensing could serve as an applicable method to detect and also characterise these events. In this study, two dust enhancement algorithms were used to investigate the behaviour of dust events using satellite data, compare with numerical model output and other satellite products and finally validate with in-situ measurements. The results show that the use of thermal infrared algorithm enhances dust more accurately. The aerosol optical depth from MODIS and output of a Dust Regional Atmospheric Model (DREAM8b) are applied for comparing the results. Ground-based observations of synoptic stations and sun photometers are used for validating the satellite products. To find the transport direction and the locations of the dust sources and the synoptic situations during these events, model outputs (HYSPLIT and NCEP/NCAR) are presented. Comparing the results with synoptic maps and the model outputs showed that using enhancement algorithms is a more reliable way than any other MODIS products or model outputs to enhance the dust.

  17. Enhancement and identification of dust events in the south-west region of Iran using satellite observations

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    F Taghavi; E Owlad; S A Ackerman

    2017-03-01

    South-west Asia including the Middle East is one of the most prone regions to dust storm events. In recent years, there was an increase in the occurrence of these environmental and meteorological phenomena. Remote sensing could serve as an applicable method to detect and also characterise these events. In this study, two dust enhancement algorithms were used to investigate the behaviour of dust events using satellite data, compare with numerical model output and other satellite products and finally validate with in-situ measurements. The results show that the use of thermal infrared algorithm enhances dust moreaccurately. The aerosol optical depth from MODIS and output of a Dust Regional Atmospheric Model (DREAM8b) are applied for comparing the results. Ground-based observations of synoptic stations and sun photometers are used for validating the satellite products. To find the transport direction and thelocations of the dust sources and the synoptic situations during these events, model outputs (HYSPLIT and NCEP/NCAR) are presented. Comparing the results with synoptic maps and the model outputs showed that using enhancement algorithms is a more reliable way than any other MODIS products or model outputs to enhance the dust.

  18. River flood events in Thailand and Bangladesh observed by CryoSat-2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nielsen, Karina; Villadsen, Heidi; Andersen, Ole; Stenseng, Lars; Knudsen, Per

    2015-04-01

    The high along track resolution of the SIRAL altimeter carried on-board CryoSat-2 offers a wide range of unique opportunities for satellite monitoring. This study focuses on the ability of CryoSat-2 to detect the effects of flood events such as increased river levels and inundation of land. Here we study two flood events; the Bangladesh flood event of June 2012 and the flooding in Thailand that lasted between July 2011 and January 2012. The flooding in these areas was caused by abnormal monsoonal rainfall and affected millions of people. We process CryoSat-2 level 1b SAR mode data to derive water levels for the areas and compare these levels before, during and after the flooding events. Other parameters such as the backscatter coefficient and pulse peakiness are also considered. To verify the extent of the flooding observed by CryoSat-2 we compare with independent sources such as Landsat images.

  19. Spatio-temporal GIS Data Model Based on Event Semantics

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    XU Zhihong; BIAN Fuling

    2003-01-01

    There are mainly four kinds of models to record and deal with historical information. By taking them as reference, the spatio-temporal model based on event semantics is proposed. In this model, according to the way for describing an event, all the information are divided into five domains. This paper describes the model by using the land parcel change in the cadastral information system, and expounds the model by using five tables corresponding to the five domains.With the aid of this model, seven examples are given on historical query,trace back and recurrence. This model can be implemented either in the extended relational database or in the object-oriented database.

  20. Observations and Interpretations of Energetic Neutral Hydrogen Atoms from the December 5, 2006 Solar Event

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mewaldt, R. A.; Leske, R. A.; Shih, A. Y.; Stone, E. C.; Barghouty, A. f.; Cohen, C. M. S.; Cummings, A. c.; Labrador, A. W.; vonRosenvinge, T. T.

    2009-01-01

    We discuss recently reported observations of energetic neutral hydrogen atoms (ENAs) from an X9 solar flare/coronal mass ejection event on 5 December 2006, located at E79. The observations were made by the Low Energy Telescopes (LETs) on STEREO A and B. Prior to the arrival of the main solar energetic particle (SEP) event at Earth, both LETs observed a sudden burst of 1.6 to 15 MeV energetic neutral hydrogen atoms produced by either flare or shock-accelerated protons. RHESSI measurements of the 2.2-MeV gamma-ray line provide an estimate of the number of interacting flare-accelerated protons in this event, which leads to an improved estimate of ENA production by flare-accelerated protons. Taking into account ENA losses, we find that the observed ENAs must have been produced in the high corona at heliocentric distances > or equal to 2 solar radii. Although there are no CME images from this event, it is shown that CME-shock-accelerated protons can, in principle, produce a time-history consistent with the observations.

  1. 35 Cascadia Episodic Tremor and Slip events observed on GPS, seismic, and strain/tiltmeter arrays

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melbourne, T. I.; Aguiar, A. C.; Santillan, V. M.; Szeliga, W.; Miller, M.

    2007-12-01

    Several rapidly expanding GPS networks along the greater Cascadia forearc have enabled identification of 36 isolated Episodic Tremor and Slip (ETS) events since 1997, including two in 2007. ETS events are observed throughout the forearc, from northern California to southwestern British Columbia, with station density generally increasing towards the north. Events located in well-instrumented regions can be tracked as they migrate laterally north-south along the plate boundary, but increasing station density has resolved many smaller transients that could not previously be confidently identified. At the specific latitude of the northern Washington State and southwestern British Columbia, the 14-month average recurrence interval still holds true, 5 events after first recognition. Elsewhere, this periodicity is not observed. Along central Vancouver Island, a host of smaller events distinct from the 14-month recurrence occur with an aperiodic fashion. Sporadic smaller events also appear throughout the subduction zone to the south, including within the region known for the 14-month periodicity. In southern Washington State, some of the largest transient displacements are observed, but lack any obvious periodicity in their recurrence. Along central Oregon, an 18-month recurrence is evident, while in northern California (Yreka) the 11-month periodicity previously documented still holds true. We invert estimated GPS offsets for the largest 14 events using non-negative thrust faulting along a plate interface divided into roughly 500 subfaults. Those events have equivalent moment magnitudes ranging from 6.3 (smallest resolvable with GPS) to 6.8, and typically 2-3 cm of slip. The largest spatial extent of the events resolved to date is just under 500 km along strike, and maximum duration is seven weeks, which lies in marked contrast to other subduction zones. Averaged over many ETS events, the upper limit of transient slip in the vicinity of Seattle, WA lies just west of the

  2. Transient Cosmic-ray Events beyond the Heliopause: Interpreting Voyager-1 Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kóta, J.; Jokipii, J. R.

    2017-04-01

    In 2013 March and 2014 May, Voyager-1 (V1) experienced small but significant increases in the flux of galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) in the hundred MeV/n range. Additionally, V1 also saw episodic depletion of GCR flux around perpendicular pitch angles. We discuss the pitch-angle distribution and the time profiles of these events. In a previous paper, we interpreted the 2013 “bump” as the GCRs remotely sensing a shock that reached the magnetic field line passing through V1: particles gained energy as they were reflected on the approaching region of the stronger magnetic field of the disturbance. Here, we point out that energy gain is not restricted to reflected particles—GCRs passing through the disturbance also gain energy. The effect should be present in a broad range of pitch angles with the maximum increase of GCR intensity predicted to occur at the critical reflection angle. In this paper, the shock is not step-like, but a gradual increase of the magnetic field strength, B, taking a few days, in agreement with V1 measurements. This smoothens the profile of the predicted bump in the GCR flux. We also address the linear episodic decreases seen around perpendicular pitch angles. These events are interpreted in terms of adiabatic cooling behind the shock due to the slow weakening of B. We present simple numerical model calculations and find that a gradual shock followed by a slow decrease of B, as observed, may account for both the episodic increases and the anisotropic depletion of GCR fluxes.

  3. Diagnosing peak-discharge power laws observed in rainfall runoff events in Goodwin Creek experimental watershed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Furey, Peter R.; Gupta, Vijay K.

    2007-11-01

    Observations from the Goodwin Creek experimental watershed (GCEW), Mississippi show that peak-discharge Q( A) and drainage area A are related, on average, by a power law or scaling relationship, Q( A) = αAθ, during single rainfall-runoff events. Observations also show that α and θ change between events, and, based on a recent analysis of 148 events, observations indicate that α and θ change because of corresponding changes in the depth, duration, and spatial variability of excess-rainfall. To improve our physical understanding of these observations, a 5-step framework for diagnosing observed power laws, or other space-time patterns in a basin, is articulated and applied to GCEW using a combination of analysis and numerical simulations. Diagnostic results indicate how the power laws are connected to physical conditions and processes. Derived expressions for α and θ show that if excess-rainfall depth is fixed then there is a decreasing concave relationship between α and excess-rainfall duration, and an increasing and slightly convex relationship between θ and excess rainfall duration. These trends are consistent with observations only when hillslope velocity vh is given a physically realistic value near 0.1 m/s. If vh ≫ 0.1 m/s, then the predicted trends deviate from observed trends. Results also suggest that trends in α and θ can be impacted by the dependence of vh and link velocity vl on excess-rainfall rate.

  4. Common-Cause Failure Treatment in Event Assessment: Basis for a Proposed New Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dana Kelly; Song-Hua Shen; Gary DeMoss; Kevin Coyne; Don Marksberry

    2010-06-01

    Event assessment is an application of probabilistic risk assessment in which observed equipment failures and outages are mapped into the risk model to obtain a numerical estimate of the event’s risk significance. In this paper, we focus on retrospective assessments to estimate the risk significance of degraded conditions such as equipment failure accompanied by a deficiency in a process such as maintenance practices. In modeling such events, the basic events in the risk model that are associated with observed failures and other off-normal situations are typically configured to be failed, while those associated with observed successes and unchallenged components are assumed capable of failing, typically with their baseline probabilities. This is referred to as the failure memory approach to event assessment. The conditioning of common-cause failure probabilities for the common cause component group associated with the observed component failure is particularly important, as it is insufficient to simply leave these probabilities at their baseline values, and doing so may result in a significant underestimate of risk significance for the event. Past work in this area has focused on the mathematics of the adjustment. In this paper, we review the Basic Parameter Model for common-cause failure, which underlies most current risk modelling, discuss the limitations of this model with respect to event assessment, and introduce a proposed new framework for common-cause failure, which uses a Bayesian network to model underlying causes of failure, and which has the potential to overcome the limitations of the Basic Parameter Model with respect to event assessment.

  5. Modelling Inland Flood Events for Hazard Maps in Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghosh, S.; Nzerem, K.; Sassi, M.; Hilberts, A.; Assteerawatt, A.; Tillmanns, S.; Mathur, P.; Mitas, C.; Rafique, F.

    2015-12-01

    Taiwan experiences significant inland flooding, driven by torrential rainfall from plum rain storms and typhoons during summer and fall. From last 13 to 16 years data, 3,000 buildings were damaged by such floods annually with a loss US$0.41 billion (Water Resources Agency). This long, narrow island nation with mostly hilly/mountainous topography is located at tropical-subtropical zone with annual average typhoon-hit-frequency of 3-4 (Central Weather Bureau) and annual average precipitation of 2502mm (WRA) - 2.5 times of the world's average. Spatial and temporal distributions of countrywide precipitation are uneven, with very high local extreme rainfall intensities. Annual average precipitation is 3000-5000mm in the mountainous regions, 78% of it falls in May-October, and the 1-hour to 3-day maximum rainfall are about 85 to 93% of the world records (WRA). Rivers in Taiwan are short with small upstream areas and high runoff coefficients of watersheds. These rivers have the steepest slopes, the shortest response time with rapid flows, and the largest peak flows as well as specific flood peak discharge (WRA) in the world. RMS has recently developed a countrywide inland flood model for Taiwan, producing hazard return period maps at 1arcsec grid resolution. These can be the basis for evaluating and managing flood risk, its economic impacts, and insured flood losses. The model is initiated with sub-daily historical meteorological forcings and calibrated to daily discharge observations at about 50 river gauges over the period 2003-2013. Simulations of hydrologic processes, via rainfall-runoff and routing models, are subsequently performed based on a 10000 year set of stochastic forcing. The rainfall-runoff model is physically based continuous, semi-distributed model for catchment hydrology. The 1-D wave propagation hydraulic model considers catchment runoff in routing and describes large-scale transport processes along the river. It also accounts for reservoir storage

  6. Model predictive control of P-time event graphs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamri, H.; Kara, R.; Amari, S.

    2016-12-01

    This paper deals with model predictive control of discrete event systems modelled by P-time event graphs. First, the model is obtained by using the dater evolution model written in the standard algebra. Then, for the control law, we used the finite-horizon model predictive control. For the closed-loop control, we used the infinite-horizon model predictive control (IH-MPC). The latter is an approach that calculates static feedback gains which allows the stability of the closed-loop system while respecting the constraints on the control vector. The problem of IH-MPC is formulated as a linear convex programming subject to a linear matrix inequality problem. Finally, the proposed methodology is applied to a transportation system.

  7. Event-based stormwater management pond runoff temperature model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sabouri, F.; Gharabaghi, B.; Sattar, A. M. A.; Thompson, A. M.

    2016-09-01

    Stormwater management wet ponds are generally very shallow and hence can significantly increase (about 5.4 °C on average in this study) runoff temperatures in summer months, which adversely affects receiving urban stream ecosystems. This study uses gene expression programming (GEP) and artificial neural networks (ANN) modeling techniques to advance our knowledge of the key factors governing thermal enrichment effects of stormwater ponds. The models developed in this study build upon and compliment the ANN model developed by Sabouri et al. (2013) that predicts the catchment event mean runoff temperature entering the pond as a function of event climatic and catchment characteristic parameters. The key factors that control pond outlet runoff temperature, include: (1) Upland Catchment Parameters (catchment drainage area and event mean runoff temperature inflow to the pond); (2) Climatic Parameters (rainfall depth, event mean air temperature, and pond initial water temperature); and (3) Pond Design Parameters (pond length-to-width ratio, pond surface area, pond average depth, and pond outlet depth). We used monitoring data for three summers from 2009 to 2011 in four stormwater management ponds, located in the cities of Guelph and Kitchener, Ontario, Canada to develop the models. The prediction uncertainties of the developed ANN and GEP models for the case study sites are around 0.4% and 1.7% of the median value. Sensitivity analysis of the trained models indicates that the thermal enrichment of the pond outlet runoff is inversely proportional to pond length-to-width ratio, pond outlet depth, and directly proportional to event runoff volume, event mean pond inflow runoff temperature, and pond initial water temperature.

  8. Particle precipitations during NEIAL events: simultaneous ground based observations at Svalbard

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Lunde

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we present Naturally Enhanced Ion Acoustic Lines (NEIALs observed with the EISCAT Svalbard Radar (ESR. For the first time, long sequences of NEIALs are recorded, with more than 50 events within an hour, ranging from 6.4 to 140 s in duration. The events took place from ~08:45 to 10:00 UT, 22 January 2004. We combine ESR data with observations of optical aurora by a meridian scanning photometer at wavelengths 557.7, 630.0, 427.8, and 844.6 nm, as well as records from a magnetometer and an imaging riometer. The large numbers of observed NEIALs together with these additional observations, enable us to characterise the particle precipitation during the NEIAL events. We find that the intensities in all optical lines studied must be above a certain level for the NEIALs to appear. We also find that the soft particle precipitation is associated with the down-shifted shoulder in the incoherent scatter spectrum, and that harder precipitation may play a role in the enhancement of the up-shifted shoulder. The minimum energy flux during NEIAL events found in this study was ~3.5 mW/m2 and minimum characteristic energy around 50 eV.

  9. Rare events analysis of temperature chaos in the Sherrington-Kirkpatrick model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Billoire, Alain

    2014-04-01

    We investigate the question of temperature chaos in the Sherrington-Kirkpatrick spin glass model, applying a recently proposed rare events based data analysis method to existing Monte Carlo data. Thanks to this new method, temperature chaos is now observable for this model, even with the limited size systems that can currently be simulated.

  10. Event-based Corpuscular Model for Quantum Optics Experiments

    CERN Document Server

    Michielsen, K; De Raedt, H

    2010-01-01

    A corpuscular simulation model of optical phenomena that does not require the knowledge of the solution of a wave equation of the whole system and reproduces the results of Maxwell's theory by generating detection events one-by-one is presented. The event-based corpuscular model is shown to give a unified description of multiple-beam fringes of a plane parallel plate, single-photon Mach-Zehnder interferometer, Wheeler's delayed choice, photon tunneling, quantum erasers, two-beam interference, double-slit, and Einstein-Podolsky-Rosen-Bohm and Hanbury Brown-Twiss experiments.

  11. Topic Modeling Based Image Clustering by Events in Social Media

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bin Xu

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Social event detection in large photo collections is very challenging and multimodal clustering is an effective methodology to deal with the problem. Geographic information is important in event detection. This paper proposed a topic model based approach to estimate the missing geographic information for photos. The approach utilizes a supervised multimodal topic model to estimate the joint distribution of time, geographic, content, and attached textual information. Then we annotate the missing geographic photos with a predicted geographic coordinate. Experimental results indicate that the clustering performance improved by annotated geographic information.

  12. Analyses of Observed and Anticipated Changes in Extreme Climate Events in the Northwest Himalaya

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dharmaveer Singh

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available In this study, past (1970-2005 as well as future long term (2011-2099 trends in various extreme events of temperature and precipitation have been investigated over selected hydro-meteorological stations in the Sutlej river basin. The ensembles of two Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 models: third generation Canadian Coupled Global Climate Model and Hadley Centre Coupled Model have been used for simulation of future daily time series of temperature (maximum and minimum and precipitation under A2 emission scenario. Large scale atmospheric variables of both models and National Centre for Environmental Prediction/National Centre for Atmospheric Research reanalysis data sets have been downscaled using statistical downscaling technique at individual stations. A total number of 25 extreme indices of temperature (14 and precipitation (11 as specified by the Expert Team of the World Meteorological Organization and Climate Variability and Predictability are derived for the past and future periods. Trends in extreme indices are detected over time using the modified Mann-Kendall test method. The stations which have shown either decrease or no change in hot extreme events (i.e., maximum TMax, warm days, warm nights, maximum TMin, tropical nights, summer days and warm spell duration indicators for 1970–2005 and increase in cold extreme events (cool days, cool nights, frost days and cold spell duration indicators are predicted to increase and decrease respectively in the future. In addition, an increase in frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events is also predicted.

  13. STEREO/SEPT observations of upstream particle events: almost monoenergetic ion beams

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Klassen

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available We present observations of Almost Monoenergetic Ion (AMI events in the energy range of 100–1200 keV detected with the Solar Electron and Proton Telescope (SEPT onboard both STEREO spacecraft. The energy spectrum of AMI events contain 1, 2, or 3 narrow peaks with the relative width at half maximum of 0.1–0.7 and their energy maxima varies for different events from 120 to 1200 keV. These events were detected close to the bow-shock (STEREO-A&B and to the magnetopause at STEREO-B as well as unexpectedly far upstream of the bow-shock and far away from the magnetotail at distances up to 1100 RE (STEREO-B and 1900 RE (STEREO-A. We discuss the origin of AMI events, the connection to the Earth's bow-shock and to the magnetosphere, and the conditions of the interplanetary medium and magnetosphere under which these AMI bursts occur. Evidence that the detected spectral peaks were caused by quasi-monoenergetic beams of protons, helium, and heavier ions are given. Furthermore, we present the spatial distribution of all AMI events from December 2006 until August 2007.

  14. Observation of High Iron Charge States at Low Energies in Solar Energetic Particle Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Z.; Möbius, E.; Klecker, B.; Bochsler, P.; Connell, J. J.; Kartavykh, Y. Y.; Mason, G. M.; Popecki, M. A.

    2014-04-01

    The ionic charge states of solar energetic particles (SEPs) provide direct information about the source plasma, the acceleration environment, and their transport. Recent studies report that both gradual and impulsive SEP events show mean iron charge states langQ Ferang ~ 10-14 at low energies E nuc-1, consistent with their origin from typical corona material at temperatures 1-2 MK. Observed increases of langQ Ferang up to 20 at energies 0.1-0.5 MeV nuc-1 in impulsive SEPs are attributed to stripping during acceleration. However, Q Fe > 16 is occasionally found in the solar wind, particularly coming from active regions, in contrast to the exclusively reported langQ Ferang = 14 throughout the entire SEPICA and STOF energy range have been identified. Four of the nine events are impulsive events identified through velocity dispersion that are consistent with source temperatures >=2 MK up to ~4 MK. The other five events show evidence of interplanetary acceleration. Four of them involve re-acceleration of impulsive material, whose original energy dependent charge states appear re-distributed to varying extent bringing higher charge states to lower energy. One event, which shows flat but elevated langQ Ferang ~ 14.2 over the entire energy range, can be associated with interplanetary acceleration of high temperature material. This event may exemplify a rare situation when a second shock plows through high temperature coronal mass ejection material.

  15. Gaseous elemental mercury depletion events observed at Cape Point during 2007–2008

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E.-G. Brunke

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available Gaseous mercury in the marine boundary layer has been measured with a 15 min temporal resolution at the Global Atmosphere Watch station Cape Point since March 2007. The most prominent features of the data until July 2008 are the frequent occurrences of pollution (PEs and depletion events (DEs. Both types of events originate mostly within a short transport distance (up to about 100 km, which are embedded in air masses ranging from marine background to continental. The Hg/CO emission ratios observed during the PEs are within the range reported for biomass burning and industrial/urban emissions. The depletion of gaseous mercury during the DEs is in many cases almost complete and suggests an atmospheric residence time of elemental mercury as short as a few dozens of hours, which is in contrast to the commonly used estimate of approximately 1 year. The DEs observed at Cape Point are not accompanied by simultaneous depletion of ozone which distinguishes them from the halogen driven atmospheric mercury depletion events (AMDEs observed in Polar Regions. Nonetheless, DEs similar to those observed at Cape Point have also been observed at other places in the marine boundary layer. Additional measurements of mercury speciation and of possible mercury oxidants are hence called for to reveal the chemical mechanism of the newly observed DEs and to assess its importance on larger scales.

  16. International Observe the Moon Night: Using Public Outreach Events to Tell Your Story to the Public

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsu, B. C.; International Observe the Moon Night Coordinating Committee

    2011-12-01

    From various interpretations of the lunar "face," early pictograms of the Moon's phases, or to the use of the lunar cycle for festivals or harvests, the Moon has an undeniable influence on human civilization. International Observe the Moon Night (InOMN) capitalizes on the human connection to the Moon by engaging the public in annual lunar observation campaigns that share the excitement of lunar science and exploration. In 2010 (InOMN's inaugural year), over 500,000 people attended events in 53 countries around the world. About 68% of InOMN hosts - astronomy clubs, museums, schools, or other groups - used the resources on the InOMN website (http://observethemoonnight.org). The InOMN website provided supporting materials for InOMN event hosts in the form of downloadable advertising materials, Moon maps, suggestions for hands-on educational activities, and links to lunar science content. InOMN event participants shared their experiences with the world using the Web and social media, event hosts shared their experiences with evaluation data, and amateur astronomers and photographers shared their images of the Moon through the lunar photography contest. The overwhelming response from InOMN in 2010 represents an untapped potential for infusing cutting edge lunar science and exploration into a large-scale public outreach event.

  17. Magnetic Field Modeling of Hot Channels in four Flare/CME Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Tie; Su, Yingna

    2017-08-01

    We study the magnetic structure and 3D geometrical morphology of four active regions with sigmoidal hot channels which produced flare/CME events. Observational study has been done by Cheng & Ding (2016). Using the flux rope insertion method developed by van Ballegooijen (2004), we construct a series of magnetic field models of the four flare/CME events. Through comparing with non-potential coronal loops observed by SDO/AIA , we find that the critical stable model (i.e.,a magnetic field configuration at the boundary between stable and unstable states in parameter space) and the best-fit preflare model (unstable model) which best matches observations for every case, and we think that the real preflare magnetic field configuration may lie between the two models. Finally we calculate the magnetic energy free energy and magnetic helicity of the two selected models,and study the eruption mechanism.

  18. Studies of Arctic Tropospheric Ozone Depletion Events Through Buoy-Borne Observations and Laboratory Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Halfacre, John W.

    The photochemically-induced destruction of ground-level Arctic ozone in the Arctic occurs at the onset of spring, in concert with polar sunrise. Solar radiation is believed to stimulate a series of reactions that cause the production and release of molecular halogens from frozen, salty surfaces, though this mechanism is not yet well understood. The subsequent photolysis of molecular halogens produces reactive halogen atoms that remove ozone from the atmosphere in these so-called "Ozone Depletion Events" (ODEs). Given that much of the Arctic region is sunlit, meteorologically stable, and covered by saline ice and snow, it is expected that ODEs could be a phenomenon that occurs across the entire Arctic region. Indeed, an ever-growing body of evidence from coastal sites indicates that Arctic air masses devoid of O3 most often pass over sea ice-covered regions before arriving at an observation site, suggesting ODE chemistry occurs upwind over the frozen Arctic Ocean. However, outside of coastal observations, there exist very few long-term observations from the Arctic Ocean from which quantitative assessments of basic ODE characteristics can be made. This work presents the interpretation of ODEs through unique chemical and meteorological observations from several ice-tethered buoys deployed around the Arctic Ocean. These observations include detection of ozone, bromine monoxide, and measurements of temperature, relative humidity, atmospheric pressure, wind speed, and wind direction. To assess whether the O-Buoys were observing locally based depletion chemistry or the transport of ozone-poor air masses, periods of ozone decay were interpreted based on current understanding of ozone depletion kinetics, which are believed to follow a pseudo-first order rate law. In addition, the spatial extents of ODEs were estimated using air mass trajectory modeling to assess whether they are a localized or synoptic phenomenon. Results indicate that current understanding of the

  19. A simple conceptual model of abrupt glacial climate events

    CERN Document Server

    Braun, H; Christl, M; Chialvo, D R

    2008-01-01

    Here we use a very simple conceptual model in an attempt to reduce essential parts of the complex nonlinearity of abrupt glacial climate changes (the so-called Dansgaard-Oeschger events) to a few simple principles, namely (i) a threshold process, (ii) an overshooting in the stability of the system and (iii) a millennial-scale relaxation. By comparison with a so-called Earth system model of intermediate complexity (CLIMBER-2), in which the events represent oscillations between two climate states corresponding to two fundamentally different modes of deep-water formation in the North Atlantic, we demonstrate that the conceptual model captures fundamental aspects of the nonlinearity of the events in that model. We use the conceptual model in order to reproduce and reanalyse nonlinear resonance mechanisms that were already suggested in order to explain the characteristic time scale of Dansgaard-Oeschger events. In doing so we identify a new form of stochastic resonance (i.e. an overshooting stochastic resonance) a...

  20. Observation of solar events using hard X-ray polarimeter POLAR

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hajdas, Wojtek; Zhang, Ping; Xiao, Hualin; Marcinkowski, Radek

    2017-04-01

    The main purpose of the novel polarimeter POLAR is to study polarization of Gamma Ray Bursts in the hard X-rays energy regime. Several analyses have shown that it is also possible to conduct semi-permanent observation of the Sun and complete the long lasting goal of polarization measurements in solar flares in the non-thermal parts of the energy spectra. POLAR was developed by collaboration between Switzerland, China and Poland. The instrument is located onboard of the China Space Laboratory TG2 that was launched in September 2016. Despite of many past attempts, the key energy range of hard X-rays was only rarely explored and results were inconclusive. To large extend it was due to greater instrumental complications. Polarization data from POLAR measurements would shed light about mechanisms and processes leading to electron acceleration and photon production. POLAR was not only designed as a dedicated instrument for polarization studies but also underwent very careful calibration campaigns on-ground supplemented by precise modeling and tests. Orientation of the TG2 space laboratory as well as instrument pointing direction allow for precise measurements of polarization in solar flares. POLAR is currently in the commissioning phase lasting until April 2017. Already in this phase it was possible to detect several weak class flares the data from which is being currently analyzed. We will provide the instrument status and present first information on detected solar events in comparison with other solar observatories such as RHESSI.

  1. Events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Igor V. Karyakin

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available The 9th ARRCN Symposium 2015 was held during 21st–25th October 2015 at the Novotel Hotel, Chumphon, Thailand, one of the most favored travel destinations in Asia. The 10th ARRCN Symposium 2017 will be held during October 2017 in the Davao, Philippines. International Symposium on the Montagu's Harrier (Circus pygargus «The Montagu's Harrier in Europe. Status. Threats. Protection», organized by the environmental organization «Landesbund für Vogelschutz in Bayern e.V.» (LBV was held on November 20-22, 2015 in Germany. The location of this event was the city of Wurzburg in Bavaria.

  2. Development of a GCR Event-based Risk Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cucinotta, Francis A.; Ponomarev, Artem L.; Plante, Ianik; Carra, Claudio; Kim, Myung-Hee

    2009-01-01

    A goal at NASA is to develop event-based systems biology models of space radiation risks that will replace the current dose-based empirical models. Complex and varied biochemical signaling processes transmit the initial DNA and oxidative damage from space radiation into cellular and tissue responses. Mis-repaired damage or aberrant signals can lead to genomic instability, persistent oxidative stress or inflammation, which are causative of cancer and CNS risks. Protective signaling through adaptive responses or cell repopulation is also possible. We are developing a computational simulation approach to galactic cosmic ray (GCR) effects that is based on biological events rather than average quantities such as dose, fluence, or dose equivalent. The goal of the GCR Event-based Risk Model (GERMcode) is to provide a simulation tool to describe and integrate physical and biological events into stochastic models of space radiation risks. We used the quantum multiple scattering model of heavy ion fragmentation (QMSFRG) and well known energy loss processes to develop a stochastic Monte-Carlo based model of GCR transport in spacecraft shielding and tissue. We validated the accuracy of the model by comparing to physical data from the NASA Space Radiation Laboratory (NSRL). Our simulation approach allows us to time-tag each GCR proton or heavy ion interaction in tissue including correlated secondary ions often of high multiplicity. Conventional space radiation risk assessment employs average quantities, and assumes linearity and additivity of responses over the complete range of GCR charge and energies. To investigate possible deviations from these assumptions, we studied several biological response pathway models of varying induction and relaxation times including the ATM, TGF -Smad, and WNT signaling pathways. We then considered small volumes of interacting cells and the time-dependent biophysical events that the GCR would produce within these tissue volumes to estimate how

  3. Modelling extreme climatic events in Guadalquivir Estuary ( Spain)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delgado, Juan; Moreno-Navas, Juan; Pulido, Antoine; García-Lafuente, Juan; Calero Quesada, Maria C.; García, Rodrigo

    2017-04-01

    Extreme climatic events, such as heat waves and severe storms are predicted to increase in frequency and magnitude as a consequence of global warming but their socio-ecological effects are poorly understood, particularly in estuarine ecosystems. The Guadalquivir Estuary has been anthropologically modified several times, the original salt marshes have been transformed to grow rice and cotton and approximately one-fourth of the total surface of the estuary is now part of two protected areas, one of them is a UNESCO, MAB Biosphere Reserve. The climatic events are most likely to affect Europe in forthcoming decades and a further understanding how these climatic disturbances drive abrupt changes in the Guadalquivir estuary is needed. A barotropic model has been developed to study how severe storm events affects the estuary by conducting paired control and climate-events simulations. The changes in the local wind and atmospheric pressure conditions in the estuary have been studied in detail and several scenarios are obtained by running the model under control and real storm conditions. The model output has been validated with in situ water elevation and good agreement between modelled and real measurements have been obtained. Our preliminary results show that the model demonstrated the capability describe of the tide-surge levels in the estuary, opening the possibility to study the interaction between climatic events and the port operations and food production activities. The barotropic hydrodynamic model provide spatially explicit information on the key variables governing the tide dynamics of estuarine areas under severe climatic scenarios . The numerical model will be a powerful tool in future climate change mitigation and adaptation programs in a complex socio-ecological system.

  4. Analysis of mutual events of Galilean satellites observed from VBO during 2014-2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vasundhara, R.; Selvakumar, G.; Anbazhagan, P.

    2017-06-01

    Results of analysis of 23 events of the 2014-2015 mutual event series from the Vainu Bappu Observatory are presented. Our intensity distribution model for the eclipsed/occulted satellite is based on the criterion that it simulates a rotational light curve that matches the ground-based light curve. Dichotomy in the scattering characteristics of the leading and trailing sides explains the basic shape of the rotational light curves of Europa, Ganymede and Callisto. In the case of Io, the albedo map (courtesy United States Geological Survey) along with global values of scattering parameters works well. Mean values of residuals in (O - C) along and perpendicular to the track are found to be -3.3 and -3.4 mas, respectively, compared to 'L2' theory for the seven 2E1/2O1 events. The corresponding rms values are 8.7 and 7.8 mas, respectively. For the five 1E3/1O3 events, the along and perpendicular to the track mean residuals are 5.6 and 3.2 mas, respectively. The corresponding rms residuals are 6.8 and 10.5 mas, respectively. We compare the results using the chosen model (Model 1) with a uniform but limb-darkened disc (Model 2). The residuals with Model 2 of the 2E1/2O1 and 1E3/1O3 events indicate a bias along the satellite track. The extent and direction of bias are consistent with the shift of the light centre from the geometric centre. Results using Model 1, which intrinsically takes into account the intensity distribution, show no such bias.

  5. Integrating Behaviour in Software Models: An Event Coordination Notation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kindler, Ekkart

    2011-01-01

    One of the main problems in model-based software engineering is modelling behaviour in such a way that the behaviour models can be easily integrated with each other, with the structural software models and with pre-existing software. In this paper, we propose an event coordination notation (ECNO......) that deals with this problem. We present the main concepts and rationales behind this notation and discuss a prototype and run-time environment that executes these models, and provides an API so that other parts of the software can be easily integrated. The core concepts of the ECNO seem to be stabilizing...

  6. Sensor Configuration Selection for Discrete-Event Systems under Unreliable Observations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wen-Chiao Lin; Tae-Sic Yoo; Humberto E. Garcia

    2010-08-01

    Algorithms for counting the occurrences of special events in the framework of partially-observed discrete event dynamical systems (DEDS) were developed in previous work. Their performances typically become better as the sensors providing the observations become more costly or increase in number. This paper addresses the problem of finding a sensor configuration that achieves an optimal balance between cost and the performance of the special event counting algorithm, while satisfying given observability requirements and constraints. Since this problem is generally computational hard in the framework considered, a sensor optimization algorithm is developed using two greedy heuristics, one myopic and the other based on projected performances of candidate sensors. The two heuristics are sequentially executed in order to find best sensor configurations. The developed algorithm is then applied to a sensor optimization problem for a multiunit- operation system. Results show that improved sensor configurations can be found that may significantly reduce the sensor configuration cost but still yield acceptable performance for counting the occurrences of special events.

  7. A localised co-rotating auroral absorption event observed near noon using imaging riometer and EISCAT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. N. Collis

    Full Text Available An isolated region of energetic electron precipitation observed near local noon in the auroral zone has been investigated using imaging riometer (IRIS and incoherent-scatter radar (EISCAT techniques. IRIS revealed that the absorption event was essentially co-rotating with the Earth for about 2 h. The spatial and temporal variations in D-region electron density seen by EISCAT were able to be interpreted within a proper context when compared with the IRIS data. EISCAT detected significant increases in electron density at altitudes as low as 65 km as the event drifted through the radar beam. The altitude distribution of incremental radio absorption revealed that more than half of the absorption occurred below 75 km, with a maximum of 67 km. The energy spectrum of the precipitating electrons was highly uniform throughout the event, and could be described analytically by the sum of three exponential distributions with characteristic energies of 6, 70 and 250 keV. A profile of effective recombination coefficient that resulted in self-consistent agreement between observed electron desities and those inferred from an inversion procedure has been deduced. The observations suggest a co-rotating magnetospheric source region on closed dayside field lines. However, a mechanism is required that can sustain such hard precipitation for the relatively long duration of the event.

  8. Van Allen Probes observations of EMIC events triggered by solar wind dynamic pressure enhancements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, D. Y.; Cho, J.; Roh, S. J.; Shin, D. K.; Hwang, J.; Kim, K. C.; Choi, C.; Kletzing, C.; Wygant, J. R.; Thaller, S. A.; Larsen, B.; Skoug, R. M.

    2015-12-01

    Electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) waves are one of the key plasma waves that can affect charged particle dynamics in the Earth's inner magnetosphere. One of the generation mechanisms of EMIC waves has long been known to be due to magnetospheric compression due to impact by enhanced solar wind dynamic pressure Pdyn. With the Van Allen Probes observations, we have identified 4 EMIC wave events that are triggered by Pdyn enhancements under northward IMF, prolonged quiet time conditions. We find the following features of the EMIC events. (1) They are triggered immediately at the Pdyn impact and remain active during the same period as the enhanced Pdyn duration. (2) They occur in either H band or He band or both. (3) Two events occur inside the plasmasphere and the other two outside the plasmasphere. (4) The wave polarization, either R or L, are highly elliptical, being close to be linear. (5) The wave normal angles are quite large, well away from being field-aligned. (6) About 10 - 50 keV proton fluxes indicate enhanced flux state with ~90 deg-peaked anisotropy in velocity distribution after the Pdyn impact. (7) From low altitude NOAA POES satellite observations of particles we find no obvious evidence for relativistic electron precipitation due to these Pdyn-triggered EMIC events. We will discuss implications of these observations on wave generation mechanism and interaction with radiation belt electrons.

  9. Analyzing the Energetics of Explosive Events Observed by SUMER on SOHO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winebarger, Amy R.; Emslie, A. Gordon; Mariska, John T.; Warren, Harry P.

    1999-11-01

    The SUMER spectrometer on SOHO has obtained numerous observations of optically thin chromosphere-corona transition-region line profiles with high spatial, spectral, and temporal resolution. Many of these profiles exhibit asymmetries and broadenings associated with impulsive mass motions (explosive events) in the solar atmosphere. We present here a new method of analyzing non-Gaussian line profiles to calculate the distribution of fluid velocities and hence the associated energy flux. We illustrate this method through a preliminary analysis of explosive event line profiles observed by SUMER. We derive the magnitudes of the energy fluxes directed both toward and away from the observer, and their (``net flux'') differences. We also identify and quantify the various components of each (i.e., kinetic, thermal and nonthermal enthalpy, and the high-energy component associated with the skewed tail of the distribution). The global energy contribution of explosive events to the solar atmosphere is then estimated under two different ``grouping'' assumptions. This preliminary analysis reveals an average net upward energy flux over the entire Sun of 104-105 ergs cm-2 s-1, up to an order of magnitude larger than previous estimates based on characteristic velocities of the fluid. Furthermore, the global estimate for the separate upward- and downward-directed energy fluxes is 105-106 ergs cm-2 s-1, which is comparable to the energy flux required for heating of the quiet corona and indicates that explosive events may indeed have significant implications for the energy balance of the chromosphere and corona.

  10. A Semi-Automatic, Remote-Controlled Video Observation System for Transient Luminous Events

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Allin, Thomas Højgaard; Neubert, Torsten; Laursen, Steen

    2003-01-01

    In support for global ELF/VLF observations, HF measurements in France, and conjugate photometry/VLF observations in South Africa, we developed and operated a semi-automatic, remotely controlled video system for the observation of middle-atmospheric transient luminous events (TLEs). Installed...... at the Pic du Midi Observatory in Southern France, the system was operational during the period from July 18 to September 15, 2003. The video system, based two low-light, non-intensified CCD video cameras, was mounted on top of a motorized pan/tilt unit. The cameras and the pan/tilt unit were controlled over...... serial links from a local computer, and the video outputs were distributed to a pair of PCI frame grabbers in the computer. This setup allowed remote users to log in and operate the system over the internet. Event detection software provided means of recording and time-stamping single TLE video fields...

  11. Constraining Cosmological Models with Different Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, J. J.

    2016-07-01

    With the observations of Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia), scientists discovered that the Universe is experiencing an accelerated expansion, and then revealed the existence of dark energy in 1998. Since the amazing discovery, cosmology has became a hot topic in the physical research field. Cosmology is a subject that strongly depends on the astronomical observations. Therefore, constraining different cosmological models with all kinds of observations is one of the most important research works in the modern cosmology. The goal of this thesis is to investigate cosmology using the latest observations. The observations include SNe Ia, Type Ic Super Luminous supernovae (SLSN Ic), Gamma-ray bursts (GRBs), angular diameter distance of galaxy cluster, strong gravitational lensing, and age measurements of old passive galaxies, etc. In Chapter 1, we briefly review the research background of cosmology, and introduce some cosmological models. Then we summarize the progress on cosmology from all kinds of observations in more details. In Chapter 2, we present the results of our studies on the supernova cosmology. The main difficulty with the use of SNe Ia as standard candles is that one must optimize three or four nuisance parameters characterizing SN luminosities simultaneously with the parameters of an expansion model of the Universe. We have confirmed that one should optimize all of the parameters by carrying out the method of maximum likelihood estimation in any situation where the parameters include an unknown intrinsic dispersion. The commonly used method, which estimates the dispersion by requiring the reduced χ^{2} to equal unity, does not take into account all possible variances among the parameters. We carry out such a comparison of the standard ΛCDM cosmology and the R_{h}=ct Universe using the SN Legacy Survey sample of 252 SN events, and show that each model fits its individually reduced data very well. Moreover, it is quite evident that SLSNe Ic may be useful

  12. Challenges in Developing Strategic Capabilities in SEP Event Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luhmann, J. G.; S., L.; Krauss-Varban, D.; Li, G.; Odstrcil, D.; Riley, P.; Owens, M.; Sokolov, I.; Manchester, W.; Kota, J.

    2008-05-01

    Realistic major SEP event modeling lags behind current efforts in CME/ICME modeling at this point in time. While on the surface the implementation of such models might seem straightforward, in practice there are many aspects of their construction that make progress slow. Part of the difficulty stems from the complex physics of the problem, some of which remains controversial, and part is simply related to the logistics of coupling the various concepts of acceleration and transport to the increasingly realistic MHD models of CMEs and ICMEs. Before a Strategic Capability in SEP event modeling can begin to be realized, the latter challenge must be addressed. Several groups, including CISM, CSEM and the LWS TR&T Focus Science Team on the subject have been grappling with this ostensibly more tractable part of the problem. This presentation is an effort to collect and communicate the challenges faced in the course of applying MHD results in various approaches. One goal is to suggest what MHD model improvements and products would be most useful toward this goal. Another is to highlight the realities of compromises that must necessarily be made in the SEP event models regardless of the perfection of the MHD descriptions of CMEs and ICMEs.

  13. Testing the no-hair theorem with event horizon telescope observations of Sagittarius A*

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Broderick, Avery E.; Johannsen, Tim [Perimeter Institute for Theoretical Physics, 31 Caroline Street North, Waterloo, ON N2L 2Y5 (Canada); Loeb, Abraham [Institute for Theory and Computation, Harvard University, Center for Astrophysics, 60 Garden Street, Cambridge, MA 02138 (United States); Psaltis, Dimitrios [Astronomy and Physics Departments, University of Arizona, 933 North Cherry Street, Tucson, AZ 85721 (United States)

    2014-03-20

    The advent of the Event Horizon Telescope (EHT), a millimeter-wave very long baseline interferometric array, has enabled spatially resolved studies of the subhorizon-scale structure for a handful of supermassive black holes. Among these, the supermassive black hole at the center of the Milky Way, Sagittarius A* (Sgr A*), presents the largest angular cross section. Thus far, these studies have focused on measurements of the black hole spin and the validation of low-luminosity accretion models. However, a critical input in the analysis of EHT data is the structure of the black hole spacetime, and thus these observations provide the novel opportunity to test the applicability of the Kerr metric to astrophysical black holes. Here we present the first simulated images of a radiatively inefficient accretion flow (RIAF) around Sgr A* employing a quasi-Kerr metric that contains an independent quadrupole moment in addition to the mass and spin that fully characterize a black hole in general relativity. We show that these images can be significantly different from the images of an RIAF around a Kerr black hole with the same spin and demonstrate the feasibility of testing the no-hair theorem by constraining the quadrupolar deviation from the Kerr metric with existing EHT data. Equally important, we find that the disk inclination and spin orientation angles are robust to the inclusion of additional parameters, providing confidence in previous estimations assuming the Kerr metric based on EHT observations. However, at present, the limits on potential modifications of the Kerr metric remain weak.

  14. A new approach to modelling the impact of disruptive events

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oosterhaven, Jan; Bouwmeester, Maaike

    This paper develops a new methodology to predict the interregional and interindustry impacts of disruptive events. We model the reactions of economic agents by minimizing the information gain between the pre- and postevent pattern of economic transactions. The resulting nonlinear program reproduces,

  15. MODELING OF DISTRIBUTED MUTUAL EXCLUSION SYSTEM USING EVENT-B

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raghuraj Suryavanshi

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available The problem of mutual exclusion arises in distributed systems whenever shared resources are concurrently accessed by several sites. For correctness, it is required that shared resource must be accessed by a single site at a time. To decide, which site execute the critical section next, each site communicate with a set of other sites. A systematic approach is essential to formulate an accurate speciation. Formal methods are mathematical techniques that provide systematic approach for building and verification of model. We have used Event-B as a formal technique for construction of our model. Event-B is event driven approach which is used to develop formal models of distributed systems .It supports generation and discharge of proof obligations arising due to consistency checking. In this paper, we outline a formal construction of model of Lamport's mutual exclusion algorithm for distributed system using Event-B. We have considered vector clock instead of using Lam-port's scalar clock for the purpose of message's time stamping.

  16. An event-driven phytoplankton bloom in southern Lake Michigan observed by satellite.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lesht, B. M.; Stroud, J. R.; McCormick, M. J.; Fahnenstiel, G. L.; Stein, M. L.; Welty, L. J.; Leshkevich, G. A.; Environmental Research; Univ. of Chicago; Great Lakes Research Lab.

    2002-04-15

    Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-View Sensor (SeaWiFS) images from June 1998 show a surprising early summer phytoplankton bloom in southern Lake Michigan that accounted for approximately 25% of the lake's annual gross offshore algal primary production. By combining the satellite imagery with in situ measurements of water temperature and wind velocity we show that the bloom was triggered by a brief wind event that was sufficient to cause substantial vertical mixing even though the lake was already stratified. We conclude that episodic events can have significant effects on the biological state of large lakes and should be included in biogeochemical process models.

  17. Erectile dysfunction and cardiovascular events in diabetic men: a meta-analysis of observational studies.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tomohide Yamada

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Several studies have shown that erectile dysfunction (ED influences the risk of cardiovascular events (CV events. However, a meta-analysis of the overall risk of CV events associated with ED in patients with diabetes has not been performed. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We searched MEDLINE and the Cochrane Library for pertinent articles (including references published between 1951 and April 22, 2012. English language reports of original observational cohort studies and cross-sectional studies were included. Pooled effect estimates were obtained by random effects meta-analysis. A total of 3,791 CV events were reported in 3 cohort studies and 9 cross-sectional studies (covering 22,586 subjects. Across the cohort studies, the overall odds ratio (OR of diabetic men with ED versus those without ED was 1.74 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.34-2.27; P0.05. Moreover, meta-regression analysis found no relationship between the method used to assess ED (questionnaire or interview, mean age, mean hemoglobin A(1c, mean body mass index, or mean duration of diabetes and the risk of CV events or CHD. In the cross-sectional studies, the OR of diabetic men with ED versus those without ED was 3.39 (95% CI: 2.58-4.44; P<0.001 for CV events (N = 9, 3.43 (95% CI: 2.46-4.77; P<0.001 for CHD (N = 7, and 2.63 (95% CI: 1.41-4.91; P = 0.002 for peripheral vascular disease (N = 5. CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE: ED was associated with an increased risk of CV events in diabetic patients. Prevention and early detection of cardiovascular disease are important in the management of diabetes, especially in view of the rapid increase in its prevalence.

  18. Multiple flux rope events at the magnetopause observations by TC-1 on 18 March 2004

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. J. Xiao

    2005-11-01

    Full Text Available From 23:10 to 23:50 UT on 18 March 2004, the Double Star TC-1 spacecraft detected eight flux ropes at the outbound crossing of the southern dawnside magnetopause. A notable guide field existed inside all ropes. In the mean time the Cluster spacecraft were staying in the magnetosheath and found that the events occurred under the condition of southward IMF Bz and dominant negative IMF By. There are six ropes that appeared quasi-periodically, with a repeated period being approximately 1-4 min. The last flux rope lasts for a longer time interval with a larger peak in the BN variations; it can thus be referred to as a typical FTE. The 18 March 2004 event is quite similar to the multiple flux rope event observed by Cluster on 26 January 2001 at the northern duskside high-latitude magnetopause. A detailed comparison of these two events is made in the paper. Preliminary studies imply that both of these multiple flux ropes events seem to be produced by component reconnection at the dayside low-latitude magnetopause.

  19. SWIFT FOLLOW-UP OBSERVATIONS OF CANDIDATE GRAVITATIONAL-WAVE TRANSIENT EVENTS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Evans, P. A.; Osborne, J. P.; Beardmore, A. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Leicester, Leicester, LE1 7RH (United Kingdom); Fridriksson, J. K.; Homan, J. [MIT Kavli Institute for Astrophysics and Space Research, 77 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge, MA 02139 (United States); Gehrels, N. [NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD 20771 (United States); Siegel, M.; Gelbord, J.; Kennea, J. A.; Smith, M.; Zhu, Q. [The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802 (United States); Handbauer, P. [Eoetvoes Lorand University, Budapest, 1117 (Hungary); Aasi, J.; Abadie, J.; Abbott, B. P.; Abbott, R. [LIGO-California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91125 (United States); Abbott, T. D. [California State University Fullerton, Fullerton, CA 92831 (United States); Abernathy, M. [SUPA, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, G12 8QQ (United Kingdom); Accadia, T. [Laboratoire d' Annecy-le-Vieux de Physique des Particules (LAPP), Universite de Savoie, CNRS/IN2P3, F-74941 Annecy-Le-Vieux (France); Acernese, F. [INFN, Sezione di Napoli, Complesso Universitario di Monte S. Angelo, I-80126 Napoli (Italy); Collaboration: LIGO Scientific Collaboration and Virgo Collaboration; and others

    2012-12-15

    We present the first multi-wavelength follow-up observations of two candidate gravitational-wave (GW) transient events recorded by LIGO and Virgo in their 2009-2010 science run. The events were selected with low latency by the network of GW detectors (within less than 10 minutes) and their candidate sky locations were observed by the Swift observatory (within 12 hr). Image transient detection was used to analyze the collected electromagnetic data, which were found to be consistent with background. Off-line analysis of the GW data alone has also established that the selected GW events show no evidence of an astrophysical origin; one of them is consistent with background and the other one was a test, part of a 'blind injection challenge'. With this work we demonstrate the feasibility of rapid follow-ups of GW transients and establish the sensitivity improvement joint electromagnetic and GW observations could bring. This is a first step toward an electromagnetic follow-up program in the regime of routine detections with the advanced GW instruments expected within this decade. In that regime, multi-wavelength observations will play a significant role in completing the astrophysical identification of GW sources. We present the methods and results from this first combined analysis and discuss its implications in terms of sensitivity for the present and future instruments.

  20. Swift Follow-up Observations of Candidate Gravitational-wave Transient Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, P. A.; Fridriksson, J. K.; Gehrels, N.; Homan, J.; Osborne, J. P.; Siegel, M.; Beardmore, A.; Handbauer, P.; Gelbord, J.; Kennea, J. A.; Smith, M.; Zhu, Q.; LIGO Scientific Collaboration; Virgo Collaboration; Aasi, J.; Abadie, J.; Abbott, B. P.; Abbott, R.; Abbott, T. D.; Abernathy, M.; Accadia, T.; Acernese, F.; Adams, C.; Adams, T.; Addesso, P.; Adhikari, R.; Affeldt, C.; Agathos, M.; Agatsuma, K.; Ajith, P.; Allen, B.; Allocca, A.; Amador Ceron, E.; Amariutei, D.; Anderson, S. B.; Anderson, W. G.; Arai, K.; Araya, M. C.; Ast, S.; Aston, S. M.; Astone, P.; Atkinson, D.; Aufmuth, P.; Aulbert, C.; Aylott, B. E.; Babak, S.; Baker, P.; Ballardin, G.; Ballmer, S.; Bao, Y.; Barayoga, J. C. B.; Barker, D.; Barone, F.; Barr, B.; Barsotti, L.; Barsuglia, M.; Barton, M. A.; Bartos, I.; Bassiri, R.; Bastarrika, M.; Basti, A.; Batch, J.; Bauchrowitz, J.; Bauer, Th. S.; Bebronne, M.; Beck, D.; Behnke, B.; Bejger, M.; Beker, M. G.; Bell, A. S.; Bell, C.; Belopolski, I.; Benacquista, M.; Berliner, J. M.; Bertolini, A.; Betzwieser, J.; Beveridge, N.; Beyersdorf, P. T.; Bhadbade, T.; Bilenko, I. A.; Billingsley, G.; Birch, J.; Biswas, R.; Bitossi, M.; Bizouard, M. A.; Black, E.; Blackburn, J. K.; Blackburn, L.; Blair, D.; Bland, B.; Blom, M.; Bock, O.; Bodiya, T. P.; Bogan, C.; Bond, C.; Bondarescu, R.; Bondu, F.; Bonelli, L.; Bonnand, R.; Bork, R.; Born, M.; Boschi, V.; Bose, S.; Bosi, L.; Bouhou, B.; Braccini, S.; Bradaschia, C.; Brady, P. R.; Braginsky, V. B.; Branchesi, M.; Brau, J. E.; Breyer, J.; Briant, T.; Bridges, D. O.; Brillet, A.; Brinkmann, M.; Brisson, V.; Britzger, M.; Brooks, A. F.; Brown, D. A.; Bulik, T.; Bulten, H. J.; Buonanno, A.; Burguet-Castell, J.; Buskulic, D.; Buy, C.; Byer, R. L.; Cadonati, L.; Cagnoli, G.; Calloni, E.; Camp, J. B.; Campsie, P.; Cannon, K.; Canuel, B.; Cao, J.; Capano, C. D.; Carbognani, F.; Carbone, L.; Caride, S.; Caudill, S.; Cavaglià, M.; Cavalier, F.; Cavalieri, R.; Cella, G.; Cepeda, C.; Cesarini, E.; Chalermsongsak, T.; Charlton, P.; Chassande-Mottin, E.; Chen, W.; Chen, X.; Chen, Y.; Chincarini, A.; Chiummo, A.; Cho, H. S.; Chow, J.; Christensen, N.; Chua, S. S. Y.; Chung, C. T. Y.; Chung, S.; Ciani, G.; Clara, F.; Clark, D. E.; Clark, J. A.; Clayton, J. H.; Cleva, F.; Coccia, E.; Cohadon, P.-F.; Colacino, C. N.; Colla, A.; Colombini, M.; Conte, A.; Conte, R.; Cook, D.; Corbitt, T. R.; Cordier, M.; Cornish, N.; Corsi, A.; Costa, C. A.; Coughlin, M.; Coulon, J.-P.; Couvares, P.; Coward, D. M.; Cowart, M.; Coyne, D. C.; Creighton, J. D. E.; Creighton, T. D.; Cruise, A. M.; Cumming, A.; Cunningham, L.; Cuoco, E.; Cutler, R. M.; Dahl, K.; Damjanic, M.; Danilishin, S. L.; D'Antonio, S.; Danzmann, K.; Dattilo, V.; Daudert, B.; Daveloza, H.; Davier, M.; Daw, E. J.; Day, R.; Dayanga, T.; De Rosa, R.; DeBra, D.; Debreczeni, G.; Degallaix, J.; Del Pozzo, W.; Dent, T.; Dergachev, V.; DeRosa, R.; Dhurandhar, S.; Di Fiore, L.; Di Lieto, A.; Di Palma, I.; Emilio, M. Di Paolo; Di Virgilio, A.; Díaz, M.; Dietz, A.; Donovan, F.; Dooley, K. L.; Doravari, S.; Dorsher, S.; Drago, M.; Drever, R. W. P.; Driggers, J. C.; Du, Z.; Dumas, J.-C.; Dwyer, S.; Eberle, T.; Edgar, M.; Edwards, M.; Effler, A.; Ehrens, P.; Eikenberry, S.; Endrőczi, G.; Engel, R.; Etzel, T.; Evans, K.; Evans, M.; Evans, T.; Factourovich, M.; Fafone, V.; Fairhurst, S.; Farr, B. F.; Favata, M.; Fazi, D.; Fehrmann, H.; Feldbaum, D.; Ferrante, I.; Ferrini, F.; Fidecaro, F.; Finn, L. S.; Fiori, I.; Fisher, R. P.; Flaminio, R.; Foley, S.; Forsi, E.; Forte, L. A.; Fotopoulos, N.; Fournier, J.-D.; Franc, J.; Franco, S.; Frasca, S.; Frasconi, F.; Frede, M.; Frei, M. A.; Frei, Z.; Freise, A.; Frey, R.; Fricke, T. T.; Friedrich, D.; Fritschel, P.; Frolov, V. V.; Fujimoto, M.-K.; Fulda, P. J.; Fyffe, M.; Gair, J.; Galimberti, M.; Gammaitoni, L.; Garcia, J.; Garufi, F.; Gáspár, M. E.; Gelencser, G.; Gemme, G.; Genin, E.; Gennai, A.; Gergely, L. Á.; Ghosh, S.; Giaime, J. A.; Giampanis, S.; Giardina, K. D.; Giazotto, A.; Gil-Casanova, S.; Gill, C.; Gleason, J.; Goetz, E.; González, G.; Gorodetsky, M. L.; Goßler, S.; Gouaty, R.; Graef, C.; Graff, P. B.; Granata, M.; Grant, A.; Gray, C.; Greenhalgh, R. J. S.; Gretarsson, A. M.; Griffo, C.; Grote, H.; Grover, K.; Grunewald, S.; Guidi, G. M.; Guido, C.; Gupta, R.; Gustafson, E. K.; Gustafson, R.; Hallam, J. M.; Hammer, D.; Hammond, G.; Hanks, J.; Hanna, C.; Hanson, J.; Harms, J.; Harry, G. M.; Harry, I. W.; Harstad, E. D.; Hartman, M. T.; Haughian, K.; Hayama, K.; Hayau, J.-F.; Heefner, J.; Heidmann, A.; Heintze, M. C.; Heitmann, H.; Hello, P.; Hemming, G.; Hendry, M. A.; Heng, I. S.; Heptonstall, A. W.; Herrera, V.; Heurs, M.; Hewitson, M.; Hild, S.; Hoak, D.; Hodge, K. A.; Holt, K.; Holtrop, M.; Hong, T.; Hooper, S.; Hough, J.; Howell, E. J.; Hughey, B.; Husa, S.; Huttner, S. H.

    2012-12-01

    We present the first multi-wavelength follow-up observations of two candidate gravitational-wave (GW) transient events recorded by LIGO and Virgo in their 2009-2010 science run. The events were selected with low latency by the network of GW detectors (within less than 10 minutes) and their candidate sky locations were observed by the Swift observatory (within 12 hr). Image transient detection was used to analyze the collected electromagnetic data, which were found to be consistent with background. Off-line analysis of the GW data alone has also established that the selected GW events show no evidence of an astrophysical origin; one of them is consistent with background and the other one was a test, part of a "blind injection challenge." With this work we demonstrate the feasibility of rapid follow-ups of GW transients and establish the sensitivity improvement joint electromagnetic and GW observations could bring. This is a first step toward an electromagnetic follow-up program in the regime of routine detections with the advanced GW instruments expected within this decade. In that regime, multi-wavelength observations will play a significant role in completing the astrophysical identification of GW sources. We present the methods and results from this first combined analysis and discuss its implications in terms of sensitivity for the present and future instruments.

  1. Swift Follow-Up Observations of Candidate Gravitational-Wave Transient Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, P. A.; Fridriksson, J. K.; Gehrels, N.; Homan, J.; Osborne, J. P.; Siegel, M.; Beardmore, A.; Handbauer, P.; Gelbord, J.; Kennea, J. A.; Smith, M.; Zhu, Q.; Aasi, J.; Abadie, J.; Abbott, B. P.; Abbott, R.; Abbott, T. D.; Abernathy, M.; Accadia, T.; Acernese, F.; Adams, C.; Adams, T.; Blackburn, J. K.; Camp, J. B.; Kanner, J. B.

    2012-01-01

    We present the first multi-wavelength follow-up observations of two candidate gravitational-wave (GW) transient events recorded by LIGO and Virgo in their 2009-2010 science run. The events were selected with low latency by the network of GW detectors (within less than 10 minutes) and their candidate sky locations were observed by the Swift observatory (within 12 hr). Image transient detection was used to analyze the collected electromagnetic data, which were found to be consistent with background. Off-line analysis of the GW data alone has also established that the selected GW events show no evidence of an astrophysical origin; one of them is consistent with background and the other one was a test, part of a "blind injection challenge." With this work we demonstrate the feasibility of rapid follow-ups of GW transients and establish the sensitivity improvement joint electromagnetic and GW observations could bring. This is a first step toward an electromagnetic follow-up program in the regime of routine detections with the advanced GW instruments expected within this decade. In that regime, multi-wavelength observations will play a significant role in completing the astrophysical identification of GW sources. We present the methods and results from this first combined analysis and discuss its implications in terms of sensitivity for the present and future instruments.

  2. A Transition Region Explosive Event Observed in He II with the MOSES Sounding Rocket

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fox, J. Lewis; Kankelborg, Charles C.; Thomas, Roger J.

    2010-08-01

    Transition region explosive events (EEs) have been observed with slit spectrographs since at least 1975, most commonly in lines of C IV (1548 Å, 1550 Å) and Si IV (1393 Å, 1402 Å). We report what we believe to be the first observation of a transition region EE in He II 304 Å. With the Multi-Order Solar EUV Spectrograph (MOSES) sounding rocket, a novel slitless imaging spectrograph, we are able to see the spatial structure of the event. We observe a bright core expelling two jets that are distinctly non-collinear, in directions that are not anti-parallel. The jets have sky-plane velocities of order 75 km s-1 and line-of-sight velocities of +75 km s-1 (blue) and -30 km s-1 (red). The core is a region of high non-thermal Doppler broadening, characteristic of EEs, with maximal broadening 380 km s-1 FWHM. It is possible to resolve the core broadening into red and blue line-of-sight components of maximum Doppler velocities +160 km s-1 and -220 km s-1. The event lasts more than 150 s. Its properties correspond to the larger, long-lived, and more energetic EEs observed in other wavelengths.

  3. Asian Dust Storm Events of 2001 and Associated Pollution Observed in New England by the AIRMAP Monitoring Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Debell, L. J.; Vozzella, M. E.; Talbot, R. W.; Dibb, J. E.

    2002-12-01

    The Atmospheric Investigation, Regional Modeling, Analysis and Prediction (AIRMAP) program is operating 4 monitoring sites in New Hampshire, located at Fort Constitution (FC)(43.07oN, 70.71oW, 5m elevation), Thompson Farm (TF) (43.11oN, 70.95oW, 21m elevation), Castle Springs (CS) (43.75oN,71.35oW, 406m elevation) and Mount Washington (MW)(44.267oN, 71.30oW, 1909m elevation). Three chemically distinct, statistically extreme, regional scale dust aerosol events were observed at all four AIRMAP monitoring stations in NH between 4/18/01 and 5/13/01 (UTC). All three events, at all four sites, had days where the 24 hr bulk aerosol samples had Ca2+ concentrations that exceeded at least the 95th percentile of the site-specific, multi-year datasets. NO3- and SO42- were also enhanced above typical levels, ranging from above the 75th to above the 99th percentile. During all three events, mixing ratios of the gas phase pollutants O3 and CO were compared to mixing ratios on either side of the events. During event 1,enhancements above background levels were approximately 130 ppbv for CO and 30 ppbv for O3, very similar to the CO values in apparent Asian dust plumes sampled over Colorado at 6-7 km by aircraft measurements (http://www.cmdl.noaa.gov/info/asiandust.html); enhancements during events 2 and 3 were similar to event 1. The maximum elemental carbon value ever observed at TF, 0.97 μg/m3, occurred during the peak day of event 1. Elemental carbon was not substantially elevated during event 2 and no data were collected during event 3. Elemental ratios, determined by PIXE, on filters from events 1 and 3 were compared pairwise to each other and to published samples attributed to Asian dust storms. The AIRMAP samples collected on the same date at different sites showed good statistical agreement whereas samples collected at the same site on different dates show only moderate correlation. Of 17 published samples of Asian dust storm aerosol, collected well outside of the major

  4. On the significance of the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency measure for event-based flood models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moussa, Roger

    2010-05-01

    When modelling flood events, the important challenge that awaits the modeller is first to choose a rainfall-runoff model, then to calibrate a set of parameters that can accurately simulate a number of flood events and related hydrograph shapes, and finally to evaluate the model performance separately on each event using multi-criteria functions. This study analyses the significance of the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) and proposes a new method to assess the performance of flood event models (see Moussa, 2010, "When monstrosity can be beautiful while normality can be ugly : assessing the performance of event-based-flood-models", Hydrological Science Journal, in press). We focus on the specific cases of events difficult to model and characterized by low NSE values, which we call "monsters". The properties of the NSE were analysed as a function of the calculated hydrograph shape and of the benchmark reference model. As application case, a multi-criteria analysis method to assess the model performance on each event is proposed and applied on the Gardon d'Anduze catchment. This paper discusses first the significance of the well-known Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) criteria function when calculated separately on flood events. The NSE is a convenient and normalized measure of model performance, but does not provide a reliable basis for comparing the results of different case studies. We show that simulated hydrographs with low or negative values of NSE, called "monsters", can be due solely to a simple lag translation or a homothetic ratio of the observed hydrograph which reproduces the dynamic of the hydrograph, with acceptable errors on other criteria. In the opposite, results show that simulations with a NSE close to 1 can become "monsters" and give very low values (even negative) of the criteria function G, if the average observed discharged used as a benchmark reference model in the NSE is modified. This paper argues that the definition of an appropriate benchmark

  5. Calibration of a numerical ionospheric model with EISCAT observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P.-L. Blelly

    Full Text Available A set of EISCAT UHF and VHF observations is used for calibrating a coupled fluid-kinetic model of the ionosphere. The data gathered in the period 1200- 2400 UT on 24 March 1995 had various intervals of interest for such a calibration. The magnetospheric activity was very low during the afternoon, allowing for a proper examination of a case of quiet ionospheric conditions. The radars entered the auroral oval just after 1900 UT: a series of dynamic events probably associated with rapidly moving auroral arcs was observed until after 2200 UT. No attempts were made to model the dynamical behaviour during the 1900–2200 UT period. In contrast, the period 2200–2400 UT was characterised by quite steady precipitation: this latter period was then chosen for calibrating the model during precipitation events. The adjustment of the model on the four primary parameters observed by the radars (namely the electron concentration and temperature and the ion temperature and velocity needed external inputs (solar fluxes and magnetic activity index and the adjustments of a neutral atmospheric model in order to reach a good agreement. It is shown that for the quiet ionosphere, only slight adjustments of the neutral atmosphere models are needed. In contrast, adjusting the observations during the precipitation event requires strong departures from the model, both for the atomic oxygen and hydrogen. However, it is argued that this could well be the result of inadequately representing the vibrational states of N2 during precipitation events, and that these factors have to be considered only as ad hoc corrections.

  6. Characteristics of extreme dust events observed over two urban areas in Iran

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Abbas-Ali A Bidokhti; Maryam Gharaylou; Nafiseh Pegahfar; Samaneh Sabetghadam; Maryam Rezazadeh

    2016-03-01

    Determination of dust loading in the atmosphere is important not only from the public health point of view, but also for regional climate changes. The present study focuses on the characteristics of two major dust events for two urban areas in Iran, Kermanshah and Tehran, over the period of 4 years from 2006 to 2009. To detect extreme dust outbreaks, various datasets including synoptic data, dust concentration, reanalysis data and numerical results of WRF and HYSPLIT models were used. The weather maps demonstrate that for these events dusts are mainly generated when wind velocity is high and humidity islow in the lower troposphere and the region is under the influence of a thermal low. The event lasts until the atmospheric stability prevails and the surface wind speed weakens. The thermal low nature of the synoptic conditions of these major events is also responsible for deep boundary layer development with its thermals affecting the vertical dust flux over the region. Trajectory studies show that the dust events originated from deserts in Iraq and Syria and transported towards Iran. The main distinction between the two types of mobilizations seems to affect the dust concentrations in the Tehran urban area.

  7. Multivariate Statistical Modelling of Drought and Heat Wave Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manning, Colin; Widmann, Martin; Vrac, Mathieu; Maraun, Douglas; Bevaqua, Emanuele

    2016-04-01

    Multivariate Statistical Modelling of Drought and Heat Wave Events C. Manning1,2, M. Widmann1, M. Vrac2, D. Maraun3, E. Bevaqua2,3 1. School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Edgbaston, Birmingham, UK 2. Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, (LSCE-IPSL), Centre d'Etudes de Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette, France 3. Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change, University of Graz, Brandhofgasse 5, 8010 Graz, Austria Compound extreme events are a combination of two or more contributing events which in themselves may not be extreme but through their joint occurrence produce an extreme impact. Compound events are noted in the latest IPCC report as an important type of extreme event that have been given little attention so far. As part of the CE:LLO project (Compound Events: muLtivariate statisticaL mOdelling) we are developing a multivariate statistical model to gain an understanding of the dependence structure of certain compound events. One focus of this project is on the interaction between drought and heat wave events. Soil moisture has both a local and non-local effect on the occurrence of heat waves where it strongly controls the latent heat flux affecting the transfer of sensible heat to the atmosphere. These processes can create a feedback whereby a heat wave maybe amplified or suppressed by the soil moisture preconditioning, and vice versa, the heat wave may in turn have an effect on soil conditions. An aim of this project is to capture this dependence in order to correctly describe the joint probabilities of these conditions and the resulting probability of their compound impact. We will show an application of Pair Copula Constructions (PCCs) to study the aforementioned compound event. PCCs allow in theory for the formulation of multivariate dependence structures in any dimension where the PCC is a decomposition of a multivariate distribution into a product of bivariate components modelled using copulas. A

  8. Interpretation of seismic section by acoustic modeling. Study of large amplitude events; Hadoba modeling ni yoru jishin tansa danmen no kaishaku. Kyoshinhaba event ni taisuru kosatsu

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tamagawa, T.; Matsuoka, T.; Sato, T. [Japan Petroleum Exploration Corp., Tokyo (Japan); Minegishi, M.; Tsuru, T. [Japan National Oil Corp., Tokyo (Japan)

    1996-05-01

    A large amplitude event difficult to interpret was discovered in the overlap section in offset data beyond 10km targeting at deep structures, and the event was examined. A wave field modeling was carried out by use of a simplified synclinal structure model because it had been estimated that the large amplitude event had something to do with a synclinal structure. A pseudospectral program was used for modeling the wave field on the assumption that the synclinal structure model would be an acoustic body and that the surface would contain free boundaries and multiple reflection. It was found as the result that a discontinuous large amplitude event is mapped out in the synclinal part of the overlap section when a far trace is applied beyond the structure during a CMP overlap process. This can be attributed to the concentration of energy produced by multiple reflection in the synclinal part and by the reflection waves beyond the critical angle. Accordingly, it is possible that phenomena similar to those encountered in the modeling process are emerging during actual observation. 2 refs., 8 figs.

  9. Catalogue of electron precipitation events as observed in the long-duration cosmic ray balloon experiment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Makhmutov, V. S.; Bazilevskaya, G. A.; Stozhkov, Yu. I.; Svirzhevskaya, A. K.; Svirzhevsky, N. S.

    2016-11-01

    Since the International Geophysical Year (1957), the Lebedev Physical Institute performs the regular measurements of charged particle fluxes in the Earth's atmosphere (from the ground level up to 30-35 km) at several latitudes. The unique experimental data base obtained during 58 years of cosmic rays observations in the atmosphere allows to investigate temporal, spatial and energetic characteristics of galactic and solar cosmic rays as well as the role of charged particles in the atmospheric processes. Analysis of this data base also revealed a special class of numerous events caused by energetic electron precipitation recorded in the atmosphere at polar latitudes. In this paper we present Catalogue of electron precipitation events observed in the polar atmosphere during 1961-2014 and briefly outline the previous results of this data set analysis.

  10. Exploratory analysis of particle data using random cells (bins) with fixed contents of observed events

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kortner, Oliver E-mail: oliver.kortner@cern.ch; Zupancic, Crtomir

    2004-10-01

    We present a simple algorithm to group events observed (rather than predicted) in a bounded region of the multidimensional phase space into bins of fixed and nearly equal content. Thereby the randomness is completely transferred from the observed to the predicted bin contents: with a simple null hypothesis the predicted content of any single bin is random and Erlang distributed. We advocate a particular chi-squared quantity G{sub s}{sup 2} for testing the goodness of fits to data binned in this way. The size of the bins obtained with the algorithm is inversely proportional to the smoothed local event density. This fact facilitates the pattern recognition in multidimensional distributions via contrast enhancement of their one- or two-dimensional projections.

  11. Start Talking Science: A model for STEM communication events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Love, Christina; Start Talking Science Collaboration

    2017-01-01

    Start Talking Science is an annual public event where STEM researchers present posters aimed at a non-technical audience. It was founded in 2013 by a coalition of science communication advocates with varying technical backgrounds from almost every major university in the Philadelphia area. Our mission is to increase public awareness of - and interest in - local cutting-edge STEM research while also strengthening the science communication skills of STEM researchers. All STEM researchers, including students and seasoned professionals, are invited to present their research; however they must participate in our review process which focuses on how to communicate their science to a general audience. Start Talking Science will be presented as a model for science communication events in other cities with details about the first three annual events and our review process. www.starttalkingscience.com

  12. Discrete-event modeling for internet multi-robotics

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    赵杰; 高胜; 蔡鹤皋

    2004-01-01

    Intemet multi-robotics is a typical discrete-event system. In order to describe joint activities between multiple operators and multiple robots, a 4-level discrete-event model is proposed in this paper based on the controlled condition/event Petri nets (CCEP). On the first or mission level, the task splitting of the system is defined; on the second or multi-operator level, a precedence graph is introduced for every operator to plan his or her robotic actions; on the third or coordination level, the above precedence graphs are translated and integrated into the corresponding CCEPs in terms of specific rules; and on the last or multi-robot level, operators can select their control range by setting the corresponding control marks of the obtained CCEPs. As a consequence, a clear mechanism of operator-robot collaboration is obtained to conduct the development of the system.

  13. BEACHES: an observational system for assessing children's eating and physical activity behaviors and associated events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKenzie, T L; Sallis, J F; Nader, P R; Patterson, T L; Elder, J P; Berry, C C; Rupp, J W; Atkins, C J; Buono, M J; Nelson, J A

    1991-01-01

    An integrated system for coding direct observations of children's dietary and physical activity behaviors was developed. Associated environmental events were also coded, including physical location, antecedents, and consequences. To assess the instrument's reliability and validity, 42 children, aged 4 to 8 years, were observed for 8 consecutive weeks at home and at school. Results indicated that four 60-min observations at home produced relatively stable estimates for most of the 10 dimensions. Interobserver reliabilities during live and videotaped observations were high, with the exception of "consequences" categories that occurred in less than 1% of observed intervals. Evidence of validity was provided by findings that antecedents were associated with respective dietary and physical activity behaviors. The five physical activity categories were validated by heartrate monitoring in a second study. The Behaviors of Eating and Activity for Children's Health Evaluation System is appropriate for studying influences on diet and physical activity in children in a variety of settings.

  14. Self-Exciting Point Process Modeling of Conversation Event Sequences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masuda, Naoki; Takaguchi, Taro; Sato, Nobuo; Yano, Kazuo

    Self-exciting processes of Hawkes type have been used to model various phenomena including earthquakes, neural activities, and views of online videos. Studies of temporal networks have revealed that sequences of social interevent times for individuals are highly bursty. We examine some basic properties of event sequences generated by the Hawkes self-exciting process to show that it generates bursty interevent times for a wide parameter range. Then, we fit the model to the data of conversation sequences recorded in company offices in Japan. In this way, we can estimate relative magnitudes of the self excitement, its temporal decay, and the base event rate independent of the self excitation. These variables highly depend on individuals. We also point out that the Hawkes model has an important limitation that the correlation in the interevent times and the burstiness cannot be independently modulated.

  15. Self-exciting point process modeling of conversation event sequences

    CERN Document Server

    Masuda, Naoki; Sato, Nobuo; Yano, Kazuo

    2012-01-01

    Self-exciting processes of Hawkes type have been used to model various phenomena including earthquakes, neural activities, and views of online videos. Studies of temporal networks have revealed that sequences of social interevent intervals for individuals are highly bursty. We examine some basic properties of event sequences generated by the Hawkes self-exciting process to show that it generates bursty interevent intervals for a wide parameter range. Then, we fit the model to the data of conversation sequences recorded in company offices in Japan. In this way, we can estimate relative magnitudes of the self excitement, its temporal decay, and the base event rate independent of the self excitation. These variables highly depend on individuals. We also point out that the Hawkes model has an important limitation that the correlation in the interevent intervals and the burstiness cannot be independently modulated.

  16. The Event Coordination Notation: Behaviour Modelling Beyond Mickey Mouse

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    2015-01-01

    The Event Coordination Notation (ECNO) allows modelling the desired behaviour of a software system on top of any object-oriented software. Together with existing technologies from Model-based Software Engineering (MBSE) for automatically generating the software for the structural parts, ECNO allows...... management system. This way, we demonstrate that ECNO can be used for modelling software beyond the typical Mickey Mouse examples. This example demonstrates that the essence of workflow management – including its behaviour – can be captured in ECNO: in a sense, it is a domain model of workflow management...... generating fully functional software from a combination of class diagrams and ECNO models. What is more, software generated from ECNO models, integrates with existing software and software generated by other technologies. ECNO started out from some challenges in behaviour modelling and some requirements...

  17. Swift follow-up observations of candidate gravitational-wave transient events

    CERN Document Server

    Evans, P A; Gehrels, N; Homan, J; Osborne, J P; Siegel, M; Beardmore, A; Handbauer, P; Gelbord, J; Kennea, J A; Smith, M; Zhu, Q; Abadie, J; Abbott, B P; Abbott, R; Abbott, T D; Abernathy, M; Accadia, T; ac, F Acernese; Adams, C; Adams, T; Addesso, P; Adhikari, R; Affeldt, C; Agathos, M; Agatsuma, K; Ajith, P; Allen, B; ac, A Allocca; Ceron, E Amador; Amariutei, D; Anderson, S B; Anderson, W G; Arai, K; Araya, M C; Ast, S; Aston, S M; Astone, P; Atkinson, D; Aufmuth, P; Aulbert, C; Aylott, B E; Babak, S; Baker, P; Ballardin, G; Ballmer, S; Bao, Y; Barayoga, J C B; Barker, D; ac, F Barone; Barr, B; Barsotti, L; Barsuglia, M; Barton, M A; Bartos, I; Bassiri, R; Bastarrika, M; ab, A Basti; Batch, J; Bauchrowitz, J; Bauer, Th S; Bebronne, M; Beck, D; Behnke, B; Bejger, M; Beker, M G; Bell, A S; Bell, C; Belopolski, I; Benacquista, M; Berliner, J M; Bertolini, A; Betzwieser, J; Beveridge, N; Beyersdorf, P T; Bhadbade, T; Bilenko, I A; Billingsley, G; Birch, J; Biswas, R; Bitossi, M; Bizouard, M A; Black, E; Blackburn, J K; Blackburn, L; Blair, D; Bland, B; Blom, M; Bock, O; Bodiya, T P; Bogan, C; Bond, C; Bondarescu, R; Bondu, F; ab, L Bonelli; Bonnand, R; Bork, R; Born, M; Boschi, V; Bose, S; Bosi, L; Bouhou, B; Braccini, S; Bradaschia, C; Brady, P R; Braginsky, V B; ab, M Branchesi; Brau, J E; Breyer, J; Briant, T; Bridges, D O; Brillet, A; Brinkmann, M; Brisson, V; Britzger, M; Brooks, A F; Brown, D A; Bulik, T; ab, H J Bulten; Buonanno, A; Burguet--Castell, J; Buskulic, D; Buy, C; Byer, R L; Cadonati, L; Cagnoli, G; ab, E Calloni; Camp, J B; Campsie, P; Cannon, K; Canuel, B; Cao, J; Capano, C D; Carbognani, F; Carbone, L; Caride, S; Caudill, S; Cavaglia, M; Cavalier, F; Cavalieri, R; Cella, G; Cepeda, C; Cesarini, E; Chalermsongsak, T; Charlton, P; Chassande-Mottin, E; Chen, W; Chen, X; Chen, Y; Chincarini, A; Chiummo, A; Cho, H S; Chow, J; Christensen, N; Chua, S S Y; Chung, C T Y; Chung, S; Ciani, G; Clara, F; Clark, D E; Clark, J A; Clayton, J H; Cleva, F; ab, E Coccia; Cohadon, P -F; ab, C N Colacino; ab, A Colla; Colombini, M; ab, A Conte; Conte, R; Cook, D; Corbitt, T R; Cordier, M; Cornish, N; Corsi, A; Costa, C A; Coughlin, M; Coulon, J -P; Couvares, P; Coward, D M; Cowart, M; Coyne, D C; Creighton, J D E; Creighton, T D; Cruise, A M; Cumming, A; Cunningham, L; Cuoco, E; Cutler, R M; Dahl, K; Damjanic, M; Danilishin, S L; D'Antonio, S; Danzmann, K; Dattilo, V; Daudert, B; Daveloza, H; Davier, M; Daw, E J; Day, R; Dayanga, T; ab, R De Rosa; DeBra, D; Debreczeni, G; Degallaix, J; Del Pozzo, W; Dent, T; Dergachev, V; DeRosa, R; Dhurandhar, S; Di Fiore, L; ab, A Di Lieto; Di Palma, I; ac, M Di Paolo Emilio; Di Virgilio, A; Diaz, M; Dietz, A; Donovan, F; Dooley, K L; Doravari, S; Dorsher, S; ab, M Drago; Drever, R W P; Driggers, J C; Du, Z; Dumas, J -C; Dwyer, S; Eberle, T; Edgar, M; Edwards, M; Effler, A; Ehrens, P; Eikenberry, S; Endroczi, G; Engel, R; Etzel, T; Evans, K; Evans, M; Evans, T; Factourovich, M; ab, V Fafone; Fairhurst, S; Farr, B F; Favata, M; Fazi, D; 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Zendri, J -P; Zhang, F; Zhang, L; Zhao, C; Zotov, N; Zucker, M E; Zweizig, J

    2012-01-01

    We present the first multi-wavelength follow-up observations of two candidate gravitational-wave (GW) transient events recorded by LIGO and Virgo in their 2009-2010 science run. The events were selected with low latency by the network of GW detectors and their candidate sky locations were observed by the Swift observatory. Image transient detection was used to analyze the collected electromagnetic data, which were found to be consistent with background. Off-line analysis of the GW data alone has also established that the selected GW events show no evidence of an astrophysical origin; one of them is consistent with background and the other one was a test, part of a "blind injection challenge". With this work we demonstrate the feasibility of rapid follow-ups of GW transients and establish the sensitivity improvement joint electromagnetic and GW observations could bring. This is a first step toward an electromagnetic follow-up program in the regime of routine detections with the advanced GW instruments expected...

  18. Transition Region and Chromospheric Signatures of Impulsive Heating Events. II. Modeling

    CERN Document Server

    Reep, Jeffrey W; Crump, Nicholas A; Simoes, Paulo J A

    2016-01-01

    Results from the Solar Maximum Mission showed a close connection between the hard X-ray and transition region emission in solar flares. Analogously, the modern combination of RHESSI and IRIS data can inform the details of heating processes in ways never before possible. We study a small event that was observed with RHESSI, IRIS, SDO, and Hinode, allowing us to strongly constrain the heating and hydrodynamical properties of the flare, with detailed observations presented in a previous paper. Long duration red-shifts of transition region lines observed in this event, as well as many other events, are fundamentally incompatible with chromospheric condensation on a single loop. We combine RHESSI and IRIS data to measure the energy partition among the many magnetic strands that comprise the flare. Using that observationally determined energy partition, we show that a proper multi-threaded model can reproduce these red-shifts in magnitude, duration, and line intensity, while simultaneously being well constrained by...

  19. Fermi GBM Observations of LIGO Gravitational-wave Event GW150914

    Science.gov (United States)

    Connaughton, V.; Burns, E.; Goldstein, A.; Blackburn, L.; Briggs, M. S.; Zhang, B.-B.; Camp, J.; Christensen, N.; Hui, C. M.; Jenke, P.; Littenberg, T.; McEnery, J. E.; Racusin, J.; Shawhan, P.; Singer, L.; Veitch, J.; Wilson-Hodge, C. A.; Bhat, P. N.; Bissaldi, E.; Cleveland, W.; Fitzpatrick, G.; Giles, M. M.; Gibby, M. H.; von Kienlin, A.; Kippen, R. M.; McBreen, S.; Mailyan, B.; Meegan, C. A.; Paciesas, W. S.; Preece, R. D.; Roberts, O. J.; Sparke, L.; Stanbro, M.; Toelge, K.; Veres, P.

    2016-07-01

    With an instantaneous view of 70% of the sky, the Fermi Gamma-ray Burst Monitor (GBM) is an excellent partner in the search for electromagnetic counterparts to gravitational-wave (GW) events. GBM observations at the time of the Laser Interferometer Gravitational-wave Observatory (LIGO) event GW150914 reveal the presence of a weak transient above 50 keV, 0.4 s after the GW event, with a false-alarm probability of 0.0022 (2.9σ). This weak transient lasting 1 s was not detected by any other instrument and does not appear to be connected with other previously known astrophysical, solar, terrestrial, or magnetospheric activity. Its localization is ill-constrained but consistent with the direction of GW150914. The duration and spectrum of the transient event are consistent with a weak short gamma-ray burst (GRB) arriving at a large angle to the direction in which Fermi was pointing where the GBM detector response is not optimal. If the GBM transient is associated with GW150914, then this electromagnetic signal from a stellar mass black hole binary merger is unexpected. We calculate a luminosity in hard X-ray emission between 1 keV and 10 MeV of {1.8}-1.0+1.5× {10}49 erg s-1. Future joint observations of GW events by LIGO/Virgo and Fermi GBM could reveal whether the weak transient reported here is a plausible counterpart to GW150914 or a chance coincidence, and will further probe the connection between compact binary mergers and short GRBs.

  20. Air Twitter: Mashing Crowdsourced Air Quality Event Identification with Scientific Earth Observations (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinson, E. M.

    2010-12-01

    , which allows time series of the number of tweets hourly and daily. Monitoring the time series AQ events are identified from the background chatter about air quality. As the events are identified, collaborative, EventSpaces (Robinson, 2008) are created using the ESIP wiki to collect and merge social and scientific information about the event. The EventSpaces are monitored using Google Analytics. During the August California Fires the traffic increased five-fold to the ESIP wiki. Furthermore, the increase in traffic was entirely due to views of the SoCal FireEventSpace. A top driver to the site was through tweeting the link to the EventSpace and having that link re-tweeted by others like the LA Times. An interesting an unexpected observation, was that most of the increased traffic was coming from Southern California. So the right people were finding the right information at the right time. The overall benefit of using the online community as an AQ event indicator, allows specific effort to be made for initial documentation of air quality events and the result is a catalog of events with some sparse analysis that can be followed-up.

  1. Modelling the interaction between flooding events and economic growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grames, J.; Prskawetz, A.; Grass, D.; Blöschl, G.

    2015-06-01

    Socio-hydrology describes the interaction between the socio-economy and water. Recent models analyze the interplay of community risk-coping culture, flooding damage and economic growth (Di Baldassarre et al., 2013; Viglione et al., 2014). These models descriptively explain the feedbacks between socio-economic development and natural disasters like floods. Contrary to these descriptive models, our approach develops an optimization model, where the intertemporal decision of an economic agent interacts with the hydrological system. In order to build this first economic growth model describing the interaction between the consumption and investment decisions of an economic agent and the occurrence of flooding events, we transform an existing descriptive stochastic model into an optimal deterministic model. The intermediate step is to formulate and simulate a descriptive deterministic model. We develop a periodic water function to approximate the former discrete stochastic time series of rainfall events. Due to the non-autonomous exogenous periodic rainfall function the long-term path of consumption and investment will be periodic.

  2. Model Learning for Probabilistic Simulation on Rare Events and Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-03-06

    observed data only. This is a problem called covariate shift in statistics . We need to calibrate the probability to avoid the underestimation of our...fall records causing the events/scenarios. This is called a covariate shift problem in statistics . We need to calibrate the probability to avoid the...their causes and consequences. Their probabilities are also quantitatively provided based on the mathematically rigorous and probabilistic inference

  3. On radial heliospheric magnetic fields: Voyager 2 observation and model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, C.; Richardson, J. D.; Burlaga, L. F.; Ness, N. F.

    2003-05-01

    The heliospheric magnetic field (HMF) direction, on average, conforms well to the Parker spiral. However, numerous examples of events where the HMF is oriented in near-radial directions for many hours have been reported on the basis of observations inside 5 AU from spacecraft such as ISEE-3 and Ulysses. The magnetic field data observed by Voyager 2 from launch in 1977 through the end of 1982 (i.e., between 1 and ˜10 AU) were searched for all instances of radial fields with durations of 6 hours or more. Radial fields of significant durations at large distances are unusual as the Parker spiral is very tightly wound. The radial HMF events in the inner heliosphere typically occur at times when the solar wind speed is declining gradually, while they tend to be associated with steady wind speeds at distances beyond ˜6 AU. The durations of these events appear to be independent of distance and solar cycle, with an average duration of ˜11 hours. They generally are not associated with interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs). Possible generation mechanisms of the radial field events related to speed variations near the Sun are investigated by use of a MHD model. We find that a noticeable low-speed plateau of limited duration in solar wind speed near the Sun can produce radial field events having durations of the order of 10 hours in the heliosphere as observed by Voyager 2.

  4. Modelling of aircrew radiation exposure during solar particle events

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Al Anid, H.; Lewis, B.J.; Bennett, L.G.I. [Royal Military College of Canada, Dept. of Chemistry and Chemical Engineering, Kingston, Ontario (Canada); Takada, M. [National Inst. of Radiological Science, International Space Radiation Lab., anagawa, Inage-Ku, Chiba (Japan)

    2010-07-01

    A transport code analysis using the Monte Carlo N-Particle eXtended code, MCNPX, has been used to propagate an extrapolated particle spectrum based on satellite measurements through the atmosphere to estimate radiation exposure during solar storms at high altitudes. Neutron monitor count rate data from stations around the world were used to benchmark the model calculations during a Ground Level Event. A comparison was made between the model predictions and actual flight measurements taken with various types of instruments used to measure the mixed radiation field during GLE 60. A computer-code has been developed to implement the model for routine analysis. (author)

  5. Modelling of aircrew radiation exposure during solar particle events

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Al Anid, H.; Lewis, B.J.; Bennett, L.G.I. [Royal Military College of Canada, Dept. of Chemistry and Chemical Engineering, Kingston, Ontario (Canada); Takada, M. [National Inst. of Radiological Science, International Space Radiation Lab., Anagawa, Inage-Ku, Chiba (Japan)

    2011-03-15

    A transport code analysis using the Monte Carlo N-Particle eXtended code, MCNPX, has been used to propagate an extrapolated particle spectrum based on satellite measurements through the atmosphere to estimate radiation exposure during solar storms at high altitudes. Neutron monitor count rate data from stations around the world were used to benchmark the model calculations during a Ground Level Event. A comparison was made between the model predictions and actual flight measurements taken with various types of instruments used to measure the mixed radiation field during GLE 60. A computer-code has been developed to implement the model for routine analysis. (author)

  6. Exploiting Language Models to Classify Events from Twitter

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Duc-Thuan Vo

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Classifying events is challenging in Twitter because tweets texts have a large amount of temporal data with a lot of noise and various kinds of topics. In this paper, we propose a method to classify events from Twitter. We firstly find the distinguishing terms between tweets in events and measure their similarities with learning language models such as ConceptNet and a latent Dirichlet allocation method for selectional preferences (LDA-SP, which have been widely studied based on large text corpora within computational linguistic relations. The relationship of term words in tweets will be discovered by checking them under each model. We then proposed a method to compute the similarity between tweets based on tweets’ features including common term words and relationships among their distinguishing term words. It will be explicit and convenient for applying to k-nearest neighbor techniques for classification. We carefully applied experiments on the Edinburgh Twitter Corpus to show that our method achieves competitive results for classifying events.

  7. Body and Surface Wave Modeling of Observed Seismic Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    1982-10-31

    Time Correlations Across North banrca Thorne Lay and Donald V. lberger Seismological Laboratory o _% California Institute of Technology ,, Pasadena...The authors wish to thank Thorne Lay and Larry Burdick for reviewing this manuscript and offering constructive criticism. This research was supported by...10 R.0.9 150 No* 05. 100 ow 0.5 60 sec R 8/16/66 NF 109 OGD LPS GEO Cr3O.7* &f32.OPA- 9 Az =7 1 Az=129* Az=750 10 soc KIP GWC CMAC ,6=40.e bP~3O.4! SL3. Az=260* Azim42* Az=359 V 3

  8. Identifying the occurrence of lightning and transient luminous events by nadir spectrophotometric observation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adachi, Toru; Sato, Mitsuteru; Ushio, Tomoo; Yamazaki, Atsushi; Suzuki, Makoto; Kikuchi, Masayuki; Takahashi, Yukihiro; Inan, Umran S.; Linscott, Ivan; Hobara, Yasuhide; Frey, Harald U.; Mende, Stephen B.; Chen, Alfred B.; Hsu, Rue-Ron; Kusunoki, Kenichi

    2016-07-01

    We propose a new technique to identify the occurrence of lightning and transient luminous events (TLEs) using multicolor photometric data obtained by space borne nadir measurements. We estimate the spectral characteristics of lightning and TLEs by converting the optical data obtained by the ISUAL limb experiment to the GLIMS nadir geometry. We find that the estimated spectral shapes of TLE-accompanied lightning are clearly different from those of pure lightning. The obtained results show that (1) the intensity of FUV signals and (2) the ratio of 337/red (609-753 nm) spectral irradiance are useful to identify the occurrence of TLEs. The occurrence probabilities of TLEs are 10%, 40%, 80%, in the case of lightning events having the 337/red spectral irradiance ratio of 0.95, 2.95, 14.79, respectively. By using the 60% criterion of the 337/red ratio and the existence of FUV emissions, we classify the 1039 GLIMS-observed lightning events into 828 pure lightning and 211 TLE-accompanied lightning. Since the GLIMS trigger level is adjusted to observe extremely-bright events, the occurrence probability of TLEs obtained here most probably reflects the characteristics of energetic lightning. The estimated global map is consistent with previously determined distributions: the highest activities of lightning and TLEs are found over the North/South American continents, African continent, and Asian maritime regions. While the absolute occurrence number of pure lightning and TLE-accompanied lightning are found to maximize in the equatorial region, the occurrence probability of TLEs possibly increase somewhat in the mid-latitude region. Since the occurrence probabilities of TLEs are higher over the ocean than over land, it is likely that the GLIMS-observed TLEs are due primarily to elves which tends to occur more frequently over the ocean.

  9. Observations of new particle formation events in the south-eastern Baltic Sea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kristina Plauškaitė

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available New particle formation and growth were observed at a coastal site (Preila station, Lithuania during 1997 and 2000-2002. The total amountof data analysed covers 291 one-day periods, 45 (15% of which were long-term, new particle formation days. Short-term nucleationevents (from a few minutes to one hour and long-term events (from one to eight hours were identified. The mean particlegrowth rate, condensation sink and condensable vapour source rate during nucleation events were 3.9 nm h-1, 1.45 × 10-3 cm-3 s-1 and 7.5 × 104 cm-3 s-1 respectively.The average formation rate J10 was 0.4 cm-3 s-1. The nucleation events were accompaniedmainly by air masses transported from the north (43% and north-west (19%. Meteorological parameters and trace gas (O3, SO2,NO2 concentrations were also analysed. It was found that nucleation events are related to high levels of solar radiation.

  10. River flood events in Thailand and Bangladesh observed by CryoSat

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andersen, O. B.; Nielsen, K.; Villadsen, H.; Stenseng, L.; Knudsen, P.

    2014-12-01

    The high along track resolution of the SIRAL altimeter carried on-board CryoSat-2 offers a wide range of unique opportunities for satellite monitoring of inland water level. This study focuses on the ability of CryoSat-2 to detect the effects of flood events such as increased river levels and inundation of land. Here we study two flood events; the Bangladesh flood event of June 2012 and the flooding in Thailand that lasted between July 2011 and January 2012. The flooding in these areas was caused by abnormal monsoonal rainfall and affected millions of people. We process CryoSat-2 level 1b SAR mode data to derive water levels for the areas and compare these levels before, during and after the flooding events. Other parameters such as the backscatter coefficient and pulse peakiness are also considered. To verify the extent of the flooding observed by CryoSat-2 we compare with independent sources such as Landsat images.

  11. Limb Event Brightenings (LEBs) with fast ejection using IRIS mission Observations

    CERN Document Server

    Tavabi, E; Golub, L

    2015-01-01

    The Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph (IRIS) of the recently commissioned NASA Small Explorer mission provides significantly more complete and higher resolution spectral coverage of the dynamical conditions inside the chromosphere and Transition Region (TR) than has heretofore been available. Near the solar limb high temporal, spatial (0''3) and spectral resolution observations from ultraviolet IRIS spectra reveal high-energy limb event brightenings (LEBs) at low chromospheric height, near 1 Mm height above the limb. They can be characterized as explosive events producing jets. We selected 2 events showing spectra of a confined eruption just off or near the quiet Sun limb, the jet part showing obvious moving material with short duration large Doppler shifts in three directions identified as macro- spicules on slit-jaw (SJ) images in SiIV and HeII 304. The events are analyzed from a sequence of very close rasters taken near the central meridian and the South Pole limb. The processed SJ images and the simul...

  12. Observing a Severe Dust Storm Event over China using Multiple Satellite Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Hui; Xue, Yong; Guang, Jie; Mei, Linlu

    2013-04-01

    make use of all useful satellite data to observe one severe dust procedure, multi-sensor and multi-algorithm AOD data were combined. In this paper, the satellite instruments considered are MISR, MODIS, POLDER and CALIPSO. In addition, air pollution index (API) data were used to validate the satellite AOD data. We chose the study region with a longitude range from 76°N to 136°N and a latitude range from 15°E to 60°E. Index Terms—aerosol optical depth, dust, satellite REFERENCES Adhikary, B., Kulkarni, S., Dallura A., Tang, Y., Chai, T., Leung, L. R., Qian, Y., Chung, C. E., Ramanathan,V. and Carmichael, G. R., 2008, A regional scale chemical transport modeling of Asian aerosols with data assimilation of AOD observations using optimal interpolation technique, Atmospheric Environment, 42(37), 8600-8615. Carboni, E., Thomas, G. E., Sayer, A. M., Siddans, R., Poulsen, C. A., Grainger, R. G., Ahn, C., Antoine, D., Bevan, S., Braak, R., Brindley, H., DeSouza-Machado, S., Deuz'e, J. L., Diner, D., Ducos, F., Grey, W., Hsu, C., Kalashnikova, O. V., Kahn, R., North, P. R. J., Salustro, C., Smith, A., Tanr'e, D., Torres, O., and Veihelmann, B., 2012, Intercomparison of desert dust optical depth from satellite measurements, Atmospheric Measurement Techniques, 5, 1973-2002. Deuze', J. L., Bre'on, F. M., Devaux, C., Goloub, Herman, M., Lafrance, B., Maignan, F., Marchand, A.,Nadal, F., Perry, G., and Tanre', D., 2001, Remote sensing of aerosols over land surfaces from POLDER-ADEOS-1 polarized measurements, Journal of Geophysical Research, 106(D5), 4913-4926. Ehlers, M., 1991, Multisensor image fusion techniques in remote sensing, ISPRS Journal of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing, 46, 19-30. Han, X., Ge. C., Tao, J. H., Zhang, M. G., Zhang, R. J., 2012, Air Quality Modeling for a Strong Dust Event in East Asia in March 2010, Aerosol and Air Quality Research, 12: 615-628. Hsu, N. C., Tsay, S. C., King, M. D. and Herman, J. R., 2004, Aerosol Properties over Bright

  13. Observations and modelling of snow avalanche entrainment

    OpenAIRE

    2002-01-01

    In this paper full scale avalanche dynamics measurements from the Italian Pizzac and Swiss Vallée de la Sionne test sites are used to develop a snowcover entrainment model. A detailed analysis of three avalanche events shows that snowcover entrainment at the avalanche front appears to dominate over bed erosion at the basal sliding surface. Furthermore, the distribution of mass within the avalanche body is primarily a function of basal fric...

  14. Observer-Based Non-PDC Control for Networked T-S Fuzzy Systems With an Event-Triggered Communication.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, Chen; Ma, Shaodong; Xie, Xiangpeng

    2017-02-07

    This paper addresses the problem of an event-triggered non-parallel distribution compensation (PDC) control for networked Takagi-Sugeno (T-S) fuzzy systems, under consideration of the limited data transmission bandwidth and the imperfect premise matching membership functions. First, a unified event-triggered T-S fuzzy model is provided, in which: 1) a fuzzy observer with the imperfect premise matching is constructed to estimate the unmeasurable states of the studied system; 2) a fuzzy controller is designed following the same premise as the observer; and 3) an output-based event-triggering transmission scheme is designed to economize the restricted network resources. Different from the traditional PDC method, the synchronous premise between the fuzzy observer and the T-S fuzzy system are no longer needed in this paper. Second, by use of Lyapunov theory, a stability criterion and a stabilization condition are obtained for ensuring asymptotically stable of the studied system. On account of the imperfect premise matching conditions are well considered in the derivation of the above criteria, less conservation can be expected to enhance the design flexibility. Compared with some existing emulation-based methods, the controller gains are no longer required to be known a priori. Finally, the availability of proposed non-PDC design scheme is illustrated by the backing-up control of a truck-trailer system.

  15. Observations of Lake-Breeze Events During the Toronto 2015 Pan-American Games

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mariani, Zen; Dehghan, Armin; Joe, Paul; Sills, David

    2017-09-01

    Enhanced meteorological observations were made during the 2015 Pan and Parapan American Games in Toronto in order to measure the vertical and horizontal structure of lake-breeze events. Two scanning Doppler lidars (one fixed and one mobile), a C-band radar, and a network including 53 surface meteorological stations (mesonet) provided pressure, temperature, humidity, and wind speed and direction measurements over Lake Ontario and urban areas. These observations captured the full evolution (prior, during, and after) of 27 lake-breeze events (73% of observation days) in order to characterize the convective and dynamic processes driving lake breezes at the local scale and mesoscale. The dominant signal of a passing lake-breeze front (LBF) was an increase in dew-point temperature of 2.3 ± 0.3°C , coinciding with a 180° shift in wind direction and a decrease in air temperature of 2.1 ± 0.2°C . Doppler lidar observations over the lake detected lake breezes 1 hour (on average) before detection by radar and mesonet. On days with the synoptic flow in the offshore direction, the lidars observed wedge-shaped LBFs with shallow depths, which inhibited the radar's ability to detect the lake breeze. The LBF's ground speed and inland penetration distance were found to be well-correlated (r = 0.78 ), with larger inland penetration distances occurring on days with non-opposing (non-offshore) synoptic flow. The observed enhanced vertical motion ({>} 1 m s^{-1}) at the LBF, observed by the lidar on 54% of lake-breeze days, was greater (at times {>} 2.5 m s^{-1} ) than that observed in previous studies and longer-lasting over the lake than over land. The weaker and less pronounced lake-breeze structure over land is illustrated in two case studies highlighting the lifetime of the lake-breeze circulation and the impact of propagation distance on lake-breeze intensity.

  16. Representation of extreme precipitation events in Nepal in CMIP5 models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jung, Woosung; Ryu, Byeong; Yun, Myong

    2016-04-01

    Nepal is highly vulnerable to of extreme climate events due in part to its mountainous terrain and lack of infrastructure. Climate change is projected to increase the frequency and magnitude of extreme temperature and precipitation events worldwide, with particularly severe impacts likely in Nepal. In this study we analyze the performance of general circulation models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) at simulating temperature and precipitation in Nepal relative to the NCEP Reanalysis II and observational data, and we project how extreme events may change during the 21st century. We analyze the uncertainty in our projections, and compare the current generation of models in CMIP5 to prior results in this region using older climate models. Finally, we consider the impact of our projections on Nepal's society and economy.

  17. Optimization of Operations Resources via Discrete Event Simulation Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joshi, B.; Morris, D.; White, N.; Unal, R.

    1996-01-01

    The resource levels required for operation and support of reusable launch vehicles are typically defined through discrete event simulation modeling. Minimizing these resources constitutes an optimization problem involving discrete variables and simulation. Conventional approaches to solve such optimization problems involving integer valued decision variables are the pattern search and statistical methods. However, in a simulation environment that is characterized by search spaces of unknown topology and stochastic measures, these optimization approaches often prove inadequate. In this paper, we have explored the applicability of genetic algorithms to the simulation domain. Genetic algorithms provide a robust search strategy that does not require continuity and differentiability of the problem domain. The genetic algorithm successfully minimized the operation and support activities for a space vehicle, through a discrete event simulation model. The practical issues associated with simulation optimization, such as stochastic variables and constraints, were also taken into consideration.

  18. Naive Probability: Model-Based Estimates of Unique Events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khemlani, Sangeet S; Lotstein, Max; Johnson-Laird, Philip N

    2015-08-01

    We describe a dual-process theory of how individuals estimate the probabilities of unique events, such as Hillary Clinton becoming U.S. President. It postulates that uncertainty is a guide to improbability. In its computer implementation, an intuitive system 1 simulates evidence in mental models and forms analog non-numerical representations of the magnitude of degrees of belief. This system has minimal computational power and combines evidence using a small repertoire of primitive operations. It resolves the uncertainty of divergent evidence for single events, for conjunctions of events, and for inclusive disjunctions of events, by taking a primitive average of non-numerical probabilities. It computes conditional probabilities in a tractable way, treating the given event as evidence that may be relevant to the probability of the dependent event. A deliberative system 2 maps the resulting representations into numerical probabilities. With access to working memory, it carries out arithmetical operations in combining numerical estimates. Experiments corroborated the theory's predictions. Participants concurred in estimates of real possibilities. They violated the complete joint probability distribution in the predicted ways, when they made estimates about conjunctions: P(A), P(B), P(A and B), disjunctions: P(A), P(B), P(A or B or both), and conditional probabilities P(A), P(B), P(B|A). They were faster to estimate the probabilities of compound propositions when they had already estimated the probabilities of each of their components. We discuss the implications of these results for theories of probabilistic reasoning.

  19. Comparison of Cox Model Methods in A Low-dimensional Setting with Few Events

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Francisco M Ojeda; Christian Muller; Daniela Bornigen; David-Alexandre Tregouet; Arne Schillert; Matthias Heinig; Tanja Zeller; Renate B Schnabel

    2016-01-01

    Prognostic models based on survival data frequently make use of the Cox proportional hazards model. Developing reliable Cox models with few events relative to the number of predictors can be challenging, even in low-dimensional datasets, with a much larger number of observations than variables. In such a setting we examined the performance of methods used to estimate a Cox model, including (i) full model using all available predictors and estimated by standard tech-niques, (ii) backward elimination (BE), (iii) ridge regression, (iv) least absolute shrinkage and selec-tion operator (lasso), and (v) elastic net. Based on a prospective cohort of patients with manifest coronary artery disease (CAD), we performed a simulation study to compare the predictive accu-racy, calibration, and discrimination of these approaches. Candidate predictors for incident cardio-vascular events we used included clinical variables, biomarkers, and a selection of genetic variants associated with CAD. The penalized methods, i.e., ridge, lasso, and elastic net, showed a compara-ble performance, in terms of predictive accuracy, calibration, and discrimination, and outperformed BE and the full model. Excessive shrinkage was observed in some cases for the penalized methods, mostly on the simulation scenarios having the lowest ratio of a number of events to the number of variables. We conclude that in similar settings, these three penalized methods can be used interchangeably. The full model and backward elimination are not recommended in rare event scenarios.

  20. Comparison of Cox Model Methods in A Low-dimensional Setting with Few Events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francisco M. Ojeda

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Prognostic models based on survival data frequently make use of the Cox proportional hazards model. Developing reliable Cox models with few events relative to the number of predictors can be challenging, even in low-dimensional datasets, with a much larger number of observations than variables. In such a setting we examined the performance of methods used to estimate a Cox model, including (i full model using all available predictors and estimated by standard techniques, (ii backward elimination (BE, (iii ridge regression, (iv least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (lasso, and (v elastic net. Based on a prospective cohort of patients with manifest coronary artery disease (CAD, we performed a simulation study to compare the predictive accuracy, calibration, and discrimination of these approaches. Candidate predictors for incident cardiovascular events we used included clinical variables, biomarkers, and a selection of genetic variants associated with CAD. The penalized methods, i.e., ridge, lasso, and elastic net, showed a comparable performance, in terms of predictive accuracy, calibration, and discrimination, and outperformed BE and the full model. Excessive shrinkage was observed in some cases for the penalized methods, mostly on the simulation scenarios having the lowest ratio of a number of events to the number of variables. We conclude that in similar settings, these three penalized methods can be used interchangeably. The full model and backward elimination are not recommended in rare event scenarios.

  1. Motion of flux transfer events: a test of the Cooling model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. C. Fear

    2007-07-01

    Full Text Available The simple model of reconnected field line motion developed by Cooling et al. (2001 has been used in several recent case studies to explain the motion of flux transfer events across the magnetopause. We examine 213 FTEs observed by all four Cluster spacecraft under a variety of IMF conditions between November 2002 and June 2003, when the spacecraft tetrahedron separation was ~5000 km. Observed velocities were calculated from multi-spacecraft timing analysis, and compared with the velocities predicted by the Cooling model in order to check the validity of the model. After excluding three categories of FTEs (events with poorly defined velocities, a significant velocity component out of the magnetopause surface, or a scale size of less than 5000 km, we were left with a sample of 118 events. 78% of these events were consistent in both direction of motion and speed with one of the two model de Hoffmann-Teller (dHT velocities calculated from the Cooling model (to within 30° and a factor of two in the speed. We also examined the plasma signatures of several magnetosheath FTEs; the electron signatures confirm the hemisphere of connection indicated by the model in most cases. This indicates that although the model is a simple one, it is a useful tool for identifying the source regions of FTEs.

  2. Concurrency Models with Causality and Events as Psi-calculi

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Håkon Normann

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Psi-calculi are a parametric framework for nominal calculi, where standard calculi are found as instances, like the pi-calculus, or the cryptographic spi-calculus and applied-pi. Psi-calculi have an interleaving operational semantics, with a strong foundation on the theory of nominal sets and process algebras. Much of the expressive power of psi-calculi comes from their logical part, i.e., assertions, conditions, and entailment, which are left quite open thus accommodating a wide range of logics. We are interested in how this expressiveness can deal with event-based models of concurrency. We thus take the popular prime event structures model and give an encoding into an instance of psi-calculi. We also take the recent and expressive model of Dynamic Condition Response Graphs (in which event structures are strictly included and give an encoding into another corresponding instance of psi-calculi. The encodings that we achieve look rather natural and intuitive. Additional results about these encodings give us more confidence in their correctness.

  3. 3D evolution of a filament disappearance event observed by STEREO

    CERN Document Server

    Gosain, S; Venkatakrishnan, P; Chandra, R; Artzner, G

    2009-01-01

    A filament disappearance event was observed on 22 May 2008 during our recent campaign JOP 178. The filament, situated in the southern hemisphere, showed sinistral chirality consistent with the hemispheric rule. The event was well observed by several observatories in particular by THEMIS. One day before the disappearance, H$\\alpha$ observations showed up and down flows in adjacent locations along the filament, which suggest plasma motions along twisted flux rope. THEMIS and GONG observations show shearing photospheric motions leading to magnetic flux canceling around barbs. STEREO A, B spacecraft with separation angle 52.4 degrees, showed quite different views of this untwisting flux rope in He II 304 \\AA\\ images. Here, we reconstruct the 3D geometry of the filament during its eruption phase using STEREO EUV He II 304 \\AA\\ images and find that the filament was highly inclined to the solar normal. The He II 304 \\AA\\ movies show individual threads, which oscillate and rise to an altitude of about 120 Mm with app...

  4. Particle precipitation during NEIAL events: simultaneous ground based nighttime observations at Svalbard

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Lunde

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we present Naturally Enhanced Ion Acoustic Lines (NEIALs observed with the EISCAT Svalbard Radar (ESR together with auroral emissions observed with the Meridian Scanning Photometer (MSP. This is the first report of NEIALs observed during nighttime at Svalbard. Previously, NEIALs have been associated with a strong red line intensity (>10 kR, which exceeds the green line intensities. The high intensity in the red line emission is a sign of abundant low energy electron precipitation. In our observations, one of the NEIAL events was accompanied by the red line emissions far below the previously reported intensities. This happened when the green line intensity exceeds the red line intensity. In this work we discuss the behaviour of electron precipitation characteristics and optical emissions during NEIAL events on the nightside, and we suggest that intensity enhancements in the 844.6 nm emission line could be a better candidate than the 630.0 nm emission as an optical signature for NEIALs.

  5. Seismic and infrasound observations of recent explosive events at Marapi Volcano in Western Sumatra

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taisne, B.; Tan, C. T.; Perttu, A. B.; Nurfiani, D.; Hidayat, D.; Suantika, G.; Gunawan, H.; Patria, C.; Adi, S.; Triastuti, H.; K.

    2016-12-01

    A small eruption was reported at Marapi Volcano in Western Sumatra on the evening of November 14, 2015. Based on seismic records this eruption occurred approximately 15:33 UTC. There were no visual nor satellite observations of an associated ash plume. The eruption was recorded on the local seismic network, as well as the regional Singapore Infrasound Array. Thanks to the ground-coupled air wave associated with this explosion infrasound was also observed on the local seismic network. Using waveform inversion, source parameters that best fit the observations were for a depth of 900 meters. The depth of the explosion was also estimated using the seismic and acoustic arrival times on the local network giving a depth from 400 to 1000 meters with the highest probability at 700 meters below the crater. Subtle changes in the frequency content of the seismic signal were observed 3 hours prior to the explosion using a Self-Organizing Map. To further the understanding of the behavior of Marapi volcano, the strong November, 14th, 2015 event has been compared with November 2014, April and August 2015 as well as July 2016 events.

  6. Candidate microlensing events from M31 observations with the Loiano telescope

    CERN Document Server

    Novati, S Calchi; De Paolis, F; Dominik, M; Ingrosso, G; Jetzer, Ph; Mancini, L; Nucita, A; Scarpetta, G; Sereno, M; Strafella, F; Gould, A

    2009-01-01

    Microlensing observations towards M31 are a powerful tool for the study of the dark matter population in the form of MACHOs both in the Galaxy and the M31 halos, a still unresolved issue, as well as for the analysis of the characteristics of the M31 luminous populations. In this work we present the second year results of our pixel lensing campaign carried out towards M31 using the 152 cm Cassini telescope in Loiano. We have established an automatic pipeline for the detection and the characterisation of microlensing variations. We have carried out a complete simulation of the experiment and evaluated the expected signal, including an analysis of the efficiency of our pipeline. As a result, we select 1-2 candidate microlensing events (according to different selection criteria). This output is in agreement with the expected rate of M31 self-lensing events. However, the statistics are still too low to draw definitive conclusions on MACHO lensing.

  7. Kinematic Structure of a Heavy Rain Event from Dual-Doppler Radar Observations

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    邵爱梅; 邱崇践; 刘黎平

    2004-01-01

    The detailed kinematic structure of a heavy rain event that occurred in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River was investigated using dual-Doppler radar observation. A variational analysis method was developed to obtain the three-dimensional wind fields. Before the analysis, a data preprocessing procedure was carried out, in which the temporal variation with the scanning time interval and the effect of the earth curvature on the data position were taken into account. The analysis shows that a shear line in the lower and middle levels played an important role in the rainfall event. The precipitation fell mainly on the south end of the shear line where southerly flow prevailed and convergence and updraft were obvious. With the movement and decay of the shear line, the precipitation moved and decayed correspondingly.

  8. Sensitivity of a Simulated Derecho Event to Model Initial Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Wei

    2014-05-01

    Since 2003, the MMM division at NCAR has been experimenting cloud-permitting scale weather forecasting using Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Over the years, we've tested different model physics, and tried different initial and boundary conditions. Not surprisingly, we found that the model's forecasts are more sensitive to the initial conditions than model physics. In 2012 real-time experiment, WRF-DART (Data Assimilation Research Testbed) at 15 km was employed to produce initial conditions for twice-a-day forecast at 3 km. On June 29, this forecast system captured one of the most destructive derecho event on record. In this presentation, we will examine forecast sensitivity to different model initial conditions, and try to understand the important features that may contribute to the success of the forecast.

  9. Modeling neutron events in MoNA-LISA using MCNPX

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elliston, Margaret; Peters, Alexander; Stryker, Kristen; Stephenson, Sharon; MoNA Collaboration

    2011-10-01

    The MoNA-LISA collaboration uses time-of-flight techniques and charged particle detectors to determine the structure of exotic nuclei such as 24 O and 12 Be . To determine the decay energy in particular, a neutron that hits the Modular Neutron Array and the Large multi-Institutional Scintillator Array has its energy, position and angle of incidence recorded if and only if the charged particle detector system detects an appropriate charged-particle fragment. However, the analysis uses only the first neutron to hit the detector array even in the case of 2n events, since the data acquisition system cannot distinguish between simultaneous but random 2n events and events due to 2n reactions. We are using MCNPX to model the reaction channels possible in the MoNA-LISA detector system in an effort to better improve the resolution on decay energy spectra for events with multiple neutrons. This work was supported in part by US National Science Foundation Award 0922335.

  10. Investigation of a convection event using multisensor observations during HyMeX SOP1

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberto, Nicoletta; Adirosi, Elisa; Casella, Daniele; Dietrich, Stefano; Panegrossi, Giulia; Petracca, Marco; Sanò, Paolo; Gatlin, Patrick; Baldini, Luca

    2014-05-01

    A multisensor analysis of the convective precipitation event occurred over Rome during the IOP13 (October 15th, 2012) of the HyMeX (Hydrological cycle in the Mediterranean eXperiment) Special Observation Period (SOP) 1 is presented. Thanks to the cooperation among Italian meteorological services and scientific community and a specific agreement with NASA-GSFC, different types of devices for meteorological measurements were made available during the HyMeX SOP.1. For investigating this event, used are the 3-D lightning data provided by the LINET, the CNR ISAC dual-pol C-band radar (Polar 55C), located in Rome, the Drop Size Distributions (DSD) collected by the 2D Video Disdrometer (2DVD) and the collocated Micro Rain Radar (MRR) installed at the Radio Meteorology Lab. of "Sapienza" University of Rome, located 14 km from the Polar 55C radar. The relation between microphysical structure and electrical activity during the convective phase of the event was investigated using LINET lightning data and Polar 55C (working both in PPI and RHI scanning mode) observations. Location of regions of high horizontal reflectivity (Zh) values ( > 50 dBz), indicating convective precipitation, were found to be associated to a high number of LINET strokes. In addition, an hydrometeor classification scheme applied to the Polar 55C scans was used to detect graupel and to identify a relation between number of LINET strokes and integrated IWC of graupel along the event. Properties of DSDs measured by the 2DVD and vertical DSD profiles estimated by MRR and their relation with the lighting activity registered by LINET were investigated with specific focus on the transition from convective to stratiform regimes. A good agreement was found between convection detected by these instruments and the number of strokes detected by LINET.

  11. Aeolian dust event in Korea observed by an EZ Lidar in the frame of global lidar networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lolli, Simone

    2010-05-01

    Duststorms and sandstorms regularly devastate Northeast Asia and cause considerable damage to transportation system and public health; further, these events are conceived to be one of the very important indices for estimating the global warming and desertification. Previously, yellow sand events were considered natural phenomena that originate in deserts and arid areas. However, the greater scale and frequency of these events in recent years are considered to be the result of human activities such as overgrazing and over-cultivation. Japan, Korea, Cina and Mongolia are directly concerned to prevent and control these storms and have been able to some extent to provide forecasts and early warnings. In this framework, to improve the accuracy of forecasting , a compact and rugged eye safe lidar, the EZ LIDAR™, developed together by Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et l'Environnement (LSCE) (CEA-CNRS) and LEOSPHERE (France) to study and investigate structural and optical properties of clouds and aerosols, thanks to the strong know-how of CEA and CNRS in the field of air quality measurements and cloud observation and analysis, was deployed in Seoul, Korea in order to detect and study yellow sand events, thanks to its depolarization channel and scan capabilities. The preliminary results, showed in this paper, of this measurement campaign put in evidence that EZ Lidar, for its capabilities of operating unattended day and night under each atmospheric condition, is mature to be deployed in a global network to study long-range transport, crucial in the forecasting model.

  12. Evaluation of WRF PBL parameterization schemes against direct observations during a dry event over the Ganges valley

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sathyanadh, Anusha; Prabha, Thara V.; Balaji, B.; Resmi, E. A.; Karipot, Anandakumar

    2017-09-01

    Accurate representations of the planetary boundary layer (PBL) are important in all weather forecast systems, especially in simulations of turbulence, wind and air quality in the lower atmosphere. In the present study, detailed observations from the Cloud Aerosol Interaction and Precipitation Enhancement Experiment - Integrated Ground based Observational Campaign (CAIPEEX-IGOC) 2014 comprising of the complete surface energy budget and detailed boundary layer observations are used to validate Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulations over a diverse terrain over the Ganges valley region, Uttar Pradesh, India. A drying event in June 2014 associated with a heat wave is selected for validation.Six local and nonlocal PBL schemes from WRF at 1 km resolution are compared with hourly observations during the diurnal cycle. Near-surface observations of weather parameters, radiation components and eddy covariance fluxes from micrometeorological tower, and profiles of variables from microwave radiometer, and radiosonde observations are used for model evaluations. Models produce a warmer, drier surface layer with higher wind speed, sensible heat flux and temperature than observations. Layered boundary layer dynamics, including the residual layer structure as illustrated in the observations over the Ganges valley are missed in the model, which lead to deeper mixed layers and excessive drying.Although it is difficult to identify any single scheme as the best, the qualitative and quantitative analyses for the entire study period and overall reproducibility of the observations indicate that the MYNN2 simulations describe lower errors and more realistic simulation of spatio-temporal variations in the boundary layer height.

  13. Advancing an Information Model for Environmental Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horsburgh, J. S.; Aufdenkampe, A. K.; Hooper, R. P.; Lehnert, K. A.; Schreuders, K.; Tarboton, D. G.; Valentine, D. W.; Zaslavsky, I.

    2011-12-01

    Observational data are fundamental to hydrology and water resources, and the way they are organized, described, and shared either enables or inhibits the analyses that can be performed using the data. The CUAHSI Hydrologic Information System (HIS) project is developing cyberinfrastructure to support hydrologic science by enabling better access to hydrologic data. HIS is composed of three major components. HydroServer is a software stack for publishing time series of hydrologic observations on the Internet as well as geospatial data using standards-based web feature, map, and coverage services. HydroCatalog is a centralized facility that catalogs the data contents of individual HydroServers and enables search across them. HydroDesktop is a client application that interacts with both HydroServer and HydroCatalog to discover, download, visualize, and analyze hydrologic observations published on one or more HydroServers. All three components of HIS are founded upon an information model for hydrologic observations at stationary points that specifies the entities, relationships, constraints, rules, and semantics of the observational data and that supports its data services. Within this information model, observations are described with ancillary information (metadata) about the observations to allow them to be unambiguously interpreted and used, and to provide traceable heritage from raw measurements to useable information. Physical implementations of this information model include the Observations Data Model (ODM) for storing hydrologic observations, Water Markup Language (WaterML) for encoding observations for transmittal over the Internet, the HydroCatalog metadata catalog database, and the HydroDesktop data cache database. The CUAHSI HIS and this information model have now been in use for several years, and have been deployed across many different academic institutions as well as across several national agency data repositories. Additionally, components of the HIS

  14. Multivariate Statistical Modelling of Compound Events via Pair-Copula Constructions: Analysis of Floods in Ravenna

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bevacqua, Emanuele; Maraun, Douglas; Hobæk Haff, Ingrid; Widmann, Martin; Vrac, Mathieu

    2017-04-01

    Compound events are multivariate extreme events in which the individual contributing variables may not be extreme themselves, but their joint - dependent - occurrence causes an extreme impact. The conventional univariate statistical analysis cannot give accurate information regarding the multivariate nature of these events. We develop a conceptual model, implemented via pair-copula constructions, which allows for the quantification of the risk associated with compound events in present day and future climate, as well as the uncertainty estimates around such risk. The model includes meteorological predictors which provide insight into both the involved physical processes, and the temporal variability of CEs. Moreover, this model provides multivariate statistical downscaling of compound events. Downscaling of compound events is required to extend their risk assessment to the past or future climate, where climate models either do not simulate realistic values of the local variables driving the events, or do not simulate them at all. Based on the developed model, we study compound floods, i.e. joint storm surge and high river runoff, in Ravenna (Italy). To explicitly quantify the risk, we define the impact of compound floods as a function of sea and river levels. We use meteorological predictors to extend the analysis to the past, and get a more robust risk analysis. We quantify the uncertainties of the risk analysis observing that they are very large due to the shortness of the available data, though this may also be the case in other studies where they have not been estimated. Ignoring the dependence between sea and river levels would result in an underestimation of risk, in particular the expected return period of the highest compound flood observed increases from about 20 to 32 years when switching from the dependent to the independent case.

  15. The advantages of using a Lucky Imaging camera for observations of microlensing events

    CERN Document Server

    Sajadian, Sedighe; Dominik, Martin; Hundertmark, Markus

    2016-01-01

    In this work, we study the advantages of using a Lucky Imaging camera for the observations of potential planetary microlensing events. Our aim is to reduce the blending effect and enhance exoplanet signals in binary lensing systems composed of an exoplanet and the corresponding parent star. We simulate planetary microlensing light curves based on present microlensing surveys and follow-up telescopes where one of them is equipped with a Lucky imaging camera. This camera is used at the Danish $1.54$-m follow-up telescope. Using a specific observational strategy, For an Earth-mass planet in the resonance regime, where the detection probability in crowded-fields is smaller, lucky imaging observations improve the detection efficiency which reaches 2 per cent. Given the difficulty of detecting the signal of an Earth-mass planet in crowded-field imaging even in the resonance regime with conventional cameras, we show that Lucky Imaging can substantially improve the detection efficiency.

  16. Short time step continuous rainfall modeling and simulation of extreme events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Callau Poduje, A. C.; Haberlandt, U.

    2017-09-01

    The design, planning, operation and overall assessment of urban drainage systems require long and continuous rain series in a high temporal resolution. Unfortunately, the availability of this data is usually short. Nevertheless a precipitation model could be used to tackle this shortcoming; therefore it is in the aim of this study to present a stochastic point precipitation model to reproduce average rainfall event properties along with extreme values. For this purpose a model is proposed to generate long synthetic series of rainfall for a temporal resolution of 5 min. It is based on an alternating renewal framework and events are characterized by variables describing durations, amounts and peaks. A group of 24 stations located in the north of Germany is used to set up and test the model. The adequate modeling of joint behaviour of rainfall amount and duration is found to be essential for reproducing the observed properties, especially for the extreme events. Copulas are advantageous tools for modeling these variables jointly; however caution must be taken in the selection of the proper copula. The inclusion of seasonality and small events is as well tested and found to be useful. The model is directly validated by generating long synthetic time series and comparing them with observed ones. An indirect validation is as well performed based on a fictional urban hydrological system. The proposed model is capable of reproducing seasonal behaviour and main characteristics of the rainfall events including extremes along with urban flooding and overflow behaviour. Overall the performance of the model is acceptable compared to the design practice. The proposed model is simple to interpret, fast to implement and to transfer to other regions, whilst showing acceptable results.

  17. Observation of the Higgs particle in γγ events and search for the Higgs particle in Zγ events at ATLAS

    CERN Document Server

    Liu, Kun; Liu, Yanwen

    This thesis focuses on the searches for the Higgs boson in events with photons in the √ final states, using the full proton-proton collision data collected by ATLAS at s = 7 and 8 TeV in 2011 and 2012. Higgs boson decays to photon pairs or to a photon and a Z boson decaying to di-electrons or di-muons are investigated. The event selection, the main backgrounds, the signal properties, and the statistical discrimination between the signal and background in data and the interpretation of the results in terms of a Standard Model Higgs boson are discussed. In the H → γγ channel a clear excess over the background is seen at a mass of m H = 126.8 ± 0.2(stat) ± 0.7(syst) GeV, with a local significance of 7.4σ. In the rare decay channel H → Zγ no evidence of excess over the background is observed in the mass range 120-150 GeV, and, for a Higgs boson mass near the one obtained from the combined mass measurement in the γγ and 4-lepton final states, m H = 125.5GeV , an upper limit of 11 times the SM predict...

  18. Observational constraints on the LLTB model

    CERN Document Server

    Marra, Valerio

    2010-01-01

    We directly compare the concordance LCDM model to the inhomogeneous matter-only alternative represented by LTB void models. To achieve a "democratic" confrontation we explore LLTB models with non-vanishing cosmological constant and perform a global likelihood analysis in the parameter space of cosmological constant and void radius. In our analysis we carefully consider SNe, Hubble constant, CMB and BAO measurements, marginalizing over the age of the universe and the background curvature. We find that the LCDM model is not the only possibility compatible with the observations, and that a matter-only void model is a viable alternative to the concordance model only if the BAO constraints are relaxed. Moreover, we will show that the areas of the parameter space which give a good fit to the observations are always disconnected with the result that a small local void does not significantly affect the parameter extraction for LCDM models.

  19. Asthma and suicide-related adverse events: a review of observational studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Iessa

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Suicide is a major public health concern. There are several risk factors associated with suicide. Chronic illnesses, such as asthma, have been linked to an increased risk of suicide-related events. This study reviews the evidence of an association between asthma and suicide using published epidemiological observational studies. An electronic search using PubMed and EMBASE was performed. Studies that investigated the association of asthma with suicide-related behaviour were selected. Studies were examined to form a descriptive analysis. Six observational studies met the selection criteria, of which at least one suicide-related adverse event was studied. Three studies investigated completed suicide, two suicide attempts and four suicide ideation. Two of the studies focused on individuals aged <18 yrs. Evidence from observational data support the hypothesis of an association between asthma and suicide-related behaviour (ideation, attempts and completion; however, epidemiological studies, with more objective measures and larger sample sizes, adjusting for a wider scope of suicide-related confounding factors (e.g. comorbidities, and with a longitudinal design, are needed for a more conclusive answer.

  20. Three Dimensional Structure and Time Evolution of a Transition Region Explosive Event Observed in He II

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fox, J. L.; Kankelborg, C. C.; Thomas, R. J.; Longcope, D.

    2007-12-01

    Transition Region Explosive Events (TREEs) have been observed with slit spectrographs since at least 1975, most commonly in lines of C IV (1548A,1550A) and Si IV (1393A, 1402A). We report what we believe to be the first observation of a TREE in He II 304A. With the MOSES sounding rocket, a novel type of imaging spectrograph, we are able to see the spatial and spectral structure of the event. It consists of a bright core expelling two jets, oppositely directed but not collinear, which curve away from the axis of the core. The jets have both line-of-sight and sky-plane motion. The core is a region of high non-thermal doppler broadening, characteristic of TREEs. It is possible to resolve the core broadening into red and blue line-of-sight components. MOSES captured approximately 150 sec of time evolution before the rocket flight ended. We see the beginning (core activation) and middle (jet ejection), but not the end. It is clear from our data-set that TREEs in He II 304A are much less common than observed in other wavelengths.

  1. Lithospheric structure models applied for locating the Romanian seismic events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Oancea

    1994-06-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents our attempts made for improving the locations obtained for local seismic events, using refined lithospheric structure models. The location program (based on Geiger method supposes a known model. The program is run for some seismic sequences which occurred in different regions, on the Romanian territory, using for each of the sequences three velocity models: 1 7 layers of constant velocity of seismic waves, as an average structure of the lithosphere for the whole territory; 2 site dependent structure (below each station, based on geophysical and geological information on the crust; 3 curves deseribing the dependence of propagation velocities with depth in the lithosphere, characterizing the 7 structural units delineated on the Romanian territory. The results obtained using the different velocity models are compared. Station corrections are computed for each data set. Finally, the locations determined for some quarry blasts are compared with the real ones.

  2. Observational Challenges for the Standard FLRW Model

    CERN Document Server

    Buchert, Thomas; Kleinert, Hagen; Roukema, Boudewijn F; Wiltshire, David L

    2015-01-01

    In the context of the "Fourteenth Marcel Grossman Meeting on General Relativity" parallel session DE3, "Large--scale Structure and Statistics", concerning observational issues in cosmology, we summarise some of the main observational challenges for the standard FLRW model and describe how the results presented in the session are related to these challenges.

  3. Assessing The Link Between Urban Changes And Major Sport Events With The Use Of Earth Observation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asimakopoulos, D.; Chrysoulakis, N.; Stathopoulou, M.; Petrakis, M.; Cartalis, C.

    2010-10-01

    In this paper an effort is made to assess the link between urban changes and major sport events with the use of Earth Observation (EO). Particular emphasis is given to a) the simulation of the contribution of urban greening to the microclimate of an area which during the Olympic Games of Athens 2004 hosted a number of sporting facilities and b) to the development of a technique to downscale low resolution satellite images so as to depict the intensity of Surface Urban Heat Island (SUHI).

  4. Observing---and Imaging---Active Galactic Nuclei with the Event Horizon Telescope

    CERN Document Server

    Fish, Vincent L; Bouman, Katherine L; Chael, Andrew A; Johnson, Michael D; Doeleman, Sheperd S; Blackburn, Lindy; Wardle, John F C; Freeman, William T

    2016-01-01

    Originally developed to image the shadow region of the central black hole in Sagittarius A* and in the nearby galaxy M87, the Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) provides deep, very high angular resolution data on other AGN sources too. The challenges of working with EHT data have spurred the development of new image reconstruction algorithms. This work briefly reviews the status of the EHT and its utility for observing AGN sources, with emphasis on novel imaging techniques that offer the promise of better reconstructions at 1.3 mm and other wavelengths.

  5. Debris Flow Monitoring System and Observed Event in Taiwan: A Case Study at Aiyuzi River

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    HSIAO Taichung; LEE Bingjean; CHOU Tienyin; LIEN Huipain; CHANG Yinghuei

    2007-01-01

    Since 2002, the Soil and Water Conservation Bureau, which is responsible for the conservation and administrative management of hillside in Taiwan, has been cooperating with Feng Chia University. Together, they have successfully carried out the establishment and maintenance of 13 fixed debris flow monitoring stations over the island and 2 mobile debris flow monitoring stations. During July 2004, a powerful southwest air current brought by Mindulle Typhoon caused serious flood in central and southern Taiwan. This paper aims to describe the establishment of debris flow monitoring systems in Taiwan and the observation of the debris flow event during Mindulle Typhoon at Aiyuzi River in Shenmu Village, Nantou County by the monitoring station.

  6. Markov State Models for Rare Events in Molecular Dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marco Sarich

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Rare, but important, transition events between long-lived states are a key feature of many molecular systems. In many cases, the computation of rare event statistics by direct molecular dynamics (MD simulations is infeasible, even on the most powerful computers, because of the immensely long simulation timescales needed. Recently, a technique for spatial discretization of the molecular state space designed to help overcome such problems, so-called Markov State Models (MSMs, has attracted a lot of attention. We review the theoretical background and algorithmic realization of MSMs and illustrate their use by some numerical examples. Furthermore, we introduce a novel approach to using MSMs for the efficient solution of optimal control problems that appear in applications where one desires to optimize molecular properties by means of external controls.

  7. Multiple ground-based observations at Zhongshan Station during the April/May 1998 solar events

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LIU; Ruiyuan(刘瑞源); HU; Hongqiao(胡红桥); HE; Longsong(贺龙松); LIU; Yonghua(刘勇华); LIU; Shunlin(刘顺林); LI; Shenggui(李胜桂); N.; Sato; B.; J.; Fraser

    2002-01-01

    Simultaneous observations at Zhongshan Station, Antarctica, during May 1-7, 1998 are presented to show the responses of the polar ionosphere to the April/May 1998 solar events. One of the main geo-effects of the solar events resulted in the major magnetic storm on May 4. At the storm onset on May 2 the ionosphere F2 layer abruptly increased in altitude, the geomagnetic H-component started negative deviation and the spectral amplitude of the ULF wave intensified. Both large isolated riometer absorption and large negative deviation of the geomagnetic H-component occurred at about 0639UT. There was a time lag of about one hour and ten minutes between the storm onset and the IMF southward turning, as measured by the WIND satellite. The polar ionosphere was highly disturbed, as shown by frequent large deviations of the geomagnetic H-component, large riometer absorption events and strong ULF waves in all the courses of the storm. The absorption increased greatly causing the digisonde to be blackout most of the time. However, the data still showed a substantial decrease in the F2 electron density and oscillation of the F2 layer peak height with an amplitude exceeding 200 km.

  8. Explosive events in active region observed by IRIS and SST/CRISP

    CERN Document Server

    Huang, Z; Scullion, E M; Xia, L -D; Doyle, J G; Ray, T

    2016-01-01

    Transition-region explosive events (EEs) are characterized by non-Gaussian line profiles with enhanced wings at Doppler velocities of 50-150 km/s. They are believed to be the signature of solar phenomena that are one of the main contributors to coronal heating. The aim of this study is to investigate the link of EEs to dynamic phenomena in the transition region and chromosphere in an active region. We analyze observations simultaneously taken by the Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph (IRIS) in the Si IV 1394\\AA\\ line and the slit-jaw (SJ) 1400\\AA\\ images, and the Swedish 1-m Solar Telescope (SST) in the H$\\alpha$ line. In total 24 events were found. They are associated with small-scale loop brightenings in SJ 1400\\AA\\ images. Only four events show a counterpart in the H$\\alpha$-35 km/s and H$\\alpha$+35 km/s images. Two of them represent brightenings in the conjunction region of several loops that are also related to a bright region (granular lane) in the H$\\alpha$-35km/s and H$\\alpha$+35 km/s images. Sixte...

  9. Imaging-Duration Embedded Dynamic Scheduling of Earth Observation Satellites for Emergent Events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaonan Niu

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available We present novel two-stage dynamic scheduling of earth observation satellites to provide emergency response by making full use of the duration of the imaging task execution. In the first stage, the multiobjective genetic algorithm NSGA-II is used to produce an optimal satellite imaging schedule schema, which is robust to dynamic adjustment as possible emergent events occur in the future. In the second stage, when certain emergent events do occur, a dynamic adjusting heuristic algorithm (CTM-DAHA is applied to arrange new tasks into the robust imaging schedule. Different from the existing dynamic scheduling methods, the imaging duration is embedded in the two stages to make full use of current satellite resources. In the stage of robust satellite scheduling, total task execution time is used as a robust indicator to obtain a satellite schedule with less imaging time. In other words, more imaging time is preserved for future emergent events. In the stage of dynamic adjustment, a compact task merging strategy is applied to combine both of existing tasks and emergency tasks into a composite task with least imaging time. Simulated experiments indicate that the proposed method can produce a more robust and effective satellite imaging schedule.

  10. Bimodal Electron Fluxes of Nearly Relativistic Electrons during the Onset of Solar Particle Events: 1. Observations

    CERN Document Server

    Sun, Lingpeng; Klecker, Berndt; Krucker, Saem; Droege, Wolfgang

    2010-01-01

    We report for several solar energetic particle events intensity and anisotropy measurements of energetic electrons in the energy range ~ 27 to ~ 500 keV as observed with the Wind and ACE spacecraft in June 2000. The observations onboard Wind show bimodal pitch angle distributions (PAD), whereas ACE shows PADs with one peak, as usually observed for impulsive injection of electrons at the Sun. During the time of observation Wind was located upstream of the Earth's bow shock, in the dawn - noon sector, at distances of ~ 40 to ~ 70 Earth radii away from the Earth, and magnetically well connected to the quasi-parallel bow shock, whereas ACE, located at the libration point L1, was not connected to the bow shock. The electron intensity-time profiles and energy spectra show that the backstreaming electrons observed at Wind are not of magnetospheric origin. The observations rather suggest that the bi-modal electron PADs are due to reflection or scattering at an obstacle located at a distance of less than ~ 150 Earth r...

  11. Reporting of unintended events in an intensive care unit: comparison between staff and observer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Verri Marco

    2005-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In order to identify relevant targets for change, it is essential to know the reliability of incident staff reporting. The aim of this study is to compare the incidence and type of unintended events (UE reported by facilitated Intensive Care Unit (ICU staff with those recorded concurrently by an observer. Methods The study is a prospective data collection performed in two 4-bed multidisciplinary ICUs of a teaching hospital. The format of the UE reporting system was voluntary, facilitated and not necessarily anonymous, and used a structured form with a predetermined list of items. UEs were reported by ICU staff over a period of 4 weeks. The reporting incidence during the first fourteen days was compared with that during the second fourteen. During morning shifts in the second fourteen days, one observer in each ICU recorded any UE seen. The staff was not aware of the observers' study. The incidence of UEs reported by staff was compared with that recorded by the observers. Results The staff reported 36 UEs in the first fourteen days and 31 in the second.. The incidence of UE detection during morning shifts was significantly higher than during afternoon or night shifts (p Conclusion UE incidence is strongly underreported by staff in comparison with observers. Also the types of UEs reported are different. Invaluable information about incidents in ICU can be obtained in a few days by observer monitoring.

  12. Simultaneous observations of magnetopause flux transfer events and of their associated signatures at ionospheric altitudes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. A. McWilliams

    2004-06-01

    Full Text Available An extensive variety of instruments, including Geotail, DMSP F11, SuperDARN, and IMP-8, were monitoring the dayside magnetosphere and ionosphere between 14:00 and 18:00 UT on 18 January 1999. The location of the instruments provided an excellent opportunity to study in detail the direct coupling between the solar wind, the magnetosphere, and the ionosphere. Flux transfer events were observed by Geotail near the magnetopause in the dawn side magnetosheath at about 4 magnetic local time during exclusively northward interplanetary magnetic field conditions. Excellent coverage of the entire dayside high-latitude ionosphere was achieved by the Northern Hemisphere SuperDARN radars. On the large scale, temporally and spatially, the dayside magnetosphere convection remained directly driven by the interplanetary magnetic field, despite the highly variable interplanetary magnetic field conditions, including long periods of northward field. The SuperDARN radars in the dawn sector also measured small-scale temporally varying convection velocities, which are indicative of flux transfer event activity, in the vicinity of the magnetic footprint of Geotail. DMSP F11 in the Southern Hemisphere measured typical cusp precipitation simultaneously with and magnetically conjugate to a single flux transfer event signature detected by Geotail. A study of the characteristics of the DMSP ion spectrogram revealed that the source plasma from the reconnection site originated downstream of the subsolar point. Detailed analyses of locally optimised coordinate systems for individual flux transfer events at Geotail are consistent with a series of flux tubes protruding from the magnetopause, and originating from a high-latitude reconnection site in the Southern Hemisphere. This high-latitude reconnection site agrees with plasma injected away from the subsolar point. This is the first simultaneous and independent determination from ionospheric and space-based data of the

  13. Explosive events in active region observed by IRIS and SST/CRISP

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Z.; Madjarska, M. S.; Scullion, E. M.; Xia, L.-D.; Doyle, J. G.; Ray, T.

    2017-01-01

    Transition-region explosive events (EEs) are characterized by non-Gaussian line profiles with enhanced wings at Doppler velocities of 50-150 km s-1. They are believed to be the signature of solar phenomena that are one of the main contributors to coronal heating. The aim of this study is to investigate the link of EEs to dynamic phenomena in the transition region and chromosphere in an active region. We analyse observations simultaneously taken by the Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph (IRIS) in the Si IV 1394 Å line and the slit-jaw (SJ) 1400 Å images, and the Swedish 1-m Solar Telescope in the Hα line. In total 24 events were found. They are associated with small-scale loop brightenings in SJ 1400 Å images. Only four events show a counterpart in the Hα-35 km s-1 and Hα+35 km s-1 images. Two of them represent brightenings in the conjunction region of several loops that are also related to a bright region (granular lane) in the Hα-35 km s-1 and Hα+35 km s-1 images. 16 are general loop brightenings that do not show any discernible response in the Hα images. Six EEs appear as propagating loop brightenings, from which two are associated with dark jet-like features clearly seen in the Hα-35 km s-1 images. We found that chromospheric events with jet-like appearance seen in the wings of the Hα line can trigger EEs in the transition region and in this case the IRIS Si IV 1394 Å line profiles are seeded with absorption components resulting from Fe II and Ni II. Our study indicates that EEs occurring in active regions have mostly upper-chromosphere/transition-region origin. We suggest that magnetic reconnection resulting from the braidings of small-scale transition region loops is one of the possible mechanisms of energy release that are responsible for the EEs reported in this paper.

  14. Effects of amines on particle growth observed in new particle formation events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tao, Ye; Ye, Xingnan; Jiang, Shuqing; Yang, Xin; Chen, Jianmin; Xie, Yuanyuan; Wang, Ruyu

    2016-01-01

    Particle size distributions in the range of 0.01-10 µm were measured in urban Shanghai in the summer of 2013 using a Wide-range Particle Spectrometer (WPS). Size-segregated aerosol samples were collected concurrently using a Micro-Orifice Uniform Deposit Impactor (MOUDI), which aided our in-depth understanding of the new particle formation (NPF) mechanism in the polluted Yangtze River Delta area. During the observations, 16 NPF events occurred at high temperatures (~34.7°C) on clear and sunny days. In the ammonium-poor PM1.0 (particulate matter less than 1.0 µm), sulfate and ammonium accounted for 92% of the total water-soluble inorganic species. Six aminiums were detected in these MOUDI samples, among which the group of diethylaminium and trimethylaminium (DEAH+ + TMAH+) was the most abundant. The very high level of aminiums (average concentration up to 86.4 ng m-3 in PM1.8), together with highly acidic aerosols, provided insight into the frequent NPF events. The high mass ratio of total aminiums to NH4+ (>0.2 for PM0.056) further highlighted the important role of amines in promoting NPF. The concentration of DEAH+ + TMAH+ in new particles below 180 nm was strongly correlated with aerosol phase acidity, indicating that acid-base reactions dominated the aminium formation in NPF events. The unexpected enhancement of DEAH+ + TMAH+ on a nonevent day was attributed to the transportation of an SO2 plume. Our results reveal that the heterogeneous uptake of amines is dominated by the acid-base reaction mechanism, which can effectively contribute to particle growth in NPF events.

  15. Probabilistic delay differential equation modeling of event-related potentials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ostwald, Dirk; Starke, Ludger

    2016-08-01

    "Dynamic causal models" (DCMs) are a promising approach in the analysis of functional neuroimaging data due to their biophysical interpretability and their consolidation of functional-segregative and functional-integrative propositions. In this theoretical note we are concerned with the DCM framework for electroencephalographically recorded event-related potentials (ERP-DCM). Intuitively, ERP-DCM combines deterministic dynamical neural mass models with dipole-based EEG forward models to describe the event-related scalp potential time-series over the entire electrode space. Since its inception, ERP-DCM has been successfully employed to capture the neural underpinnings of a wide range of neurocognitive phenomena. However, in spite of its empirical popularity, the technical literature on ERP-DCM remains somewhat patchy. A number of previous communications have detailed certain aspects of the approach, but no unified and coherent documentation exists. With this technical note, we aim to close this gap and to increase the technical accessibility of ERP-DCM. Specifically, this note makes the following novel contributions: firstly, we provide a unified and coherent review of the mathematical machinery of the latent and forward models constituting ERP-DCM by formulating the approach as a probabilistic latent delay differential equation model. Secondly, we emphasize the probabilistic nature of the model and its variational Bayesian inversion scheme by explicitly deriving the variational free energy function in terms of both the likelihood expectation and variance parameters. Thirdly, we detail and validate the estimation of the model with a special focus on the explicit form of the variational free energy function and introduce a conventional nonlinear optimization scheme for its maximization. Finally, we identify and discuss a number of computational issues which may be addressed in the future development of the approach.

  16. High resolution modelling of extreme precipitation events in urban areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siemerink, Martijn; Volp, Nicolette; Schuurmans, Wytze; Deckers, Dave

    2015-04-01

    The present day society needs to adjust to the effects of climate change. More extreme weather conditions are expected, which can lead to longer periods of drought, but also to more extreme precipitation events. Urban water systems are not designed for such extreme events. Most sewer systems are not able to drain the excessive storm water, causing urban flooding. This leads to high economic damage. In order to take appropriate measures against extreme urban storms, detailed knowledge about the behaviour of the urban water system above and below the streets is required. To investigate the behaviour of urban water systems during extreme precipitation events new assessment tools are necessary. These tools should provide a detailed and integral description of the flow in the full domain of overland runoff, sewer flow, surface water flow and groundwater flow. We developed a new assessment tool, called 3Di, which provides detailed insight in the urban water system. This tool is based on a new numerical methodology that can accurately deal with the interaction between overland runoff, sewer flow and surface water flow. A one-dimensional model for the sewer system and open channel flow is fully coupled to a two-dimensional depth-averaged model that simulates the overland flow. The tool uses a subgrid-based approach in order to take high resolution information of the sewer system and of the terrain into account [1, 2]. The combination of using the high resolution information and the subgrid based approach results in an accurate and efficient modelling tool. It is now possible to simulate entire urban water systems using extreme high resolution (0.5m x 0.5m) terrain data in combination with a detailed sewer and surface water network representation. The new tool has been tested in several Dutch cities, such as Rotterdam, Amsterdam and The Hague. We will present the results of an extreme precipitation event in the city of Schiedam (The Netherlands). This city deals with

  17. Observations and Modelling of DQ White Dwarfs

    CERN Document Server

    Vornanen, Tommi; Berdyugin, Andrei

    2012-01-01

    We present spectropolarimetric observations and modelling of 12 DQ white dwarfs. Modelling is based on the method presented in Berdyugina et al. (2005). We use the model to fit the C_2 absorption bands to get atmospheric parameters in different configurations, including stellar spots and stratified atmospheres, searching for the best possible fit. We still have problem to solve before we can give temperature estimates based on the Swan bands alone.

  18. Models and observations of sunspot penumbrae

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    BORRERO; Juan; Manuel

    2009-01-01

    The mysteries of sunspot penumbrae have been under an intense scrutiny for the past 10 years. During this time, some models have been proposed and refuted, while the surviving ones had to be modified, adapted and evolved to explain the ever-increasing array of observational constraints. In this contribution I will review two of the present models, emphasizing their contributions to this field, but also pinpointing some of their inadequacies to explain a number of recent observations at very high spatial resolution (0.32 ). To help explaining these new observations I propose some modifications to each of those models. These modifications bring those two seemingly opposite models closer together into a general picture that agrees well with recent 3D magneto-hydrodynamic simulations.

  19. High Cadence Observations and Analysis of Spicular-type Events Using CRISP Onboard SST

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shetye, J.; Doyle, J. G.; Scullion, E.; Nelson, C. J.; Kuridze, D.

    2016-04-01

    We present spectroscopic and imaging observations of apparent ultra-fast spicule-like features observed with CRisp Imaging SpectroPolarimeter (CRISP) at the Swedish 1-m Solar Telescope (SST). The data shows spicules with an apparent velocity above 500 km s-1, very short lifetimes of up to 20 s and length/height around 3500 km. The spicules are seen as dark absorption structures in the Hα wings ±516 mÅ, ±774 mÅ and ±1032 mÅ which suddenly appear and disappear from the FOV. These features show a time delay in their appearance in the blue and red wings by 3-5 s. We suggest that their appearance/disappearance is due to their Doppler motion in and out of the 60 mÅ filter. See Fig. 1 for the evolution of the event at two line positions.

  20. Plasma observations during the Mars atmospheric "plume" event of March-April 2012

    CERN Document Server

    Andrews, D J; Edberg, N J T; Gurnett, D A; Hall, B E S; Holmström, M; Lester, M; Morgan, D D; Opgenoorth, H J; Ramstad, R; Sanchez-Cano, B; Way, M; Witasse, O

    2016-01-01

    We present initial analysis and conclusions from plasma observations made during the reported "Mars plume event" of March - April 2012. During this period, multiple independent amateur observers detected a localized, high-altitude "plume" over the Martian dawn terminator [Sanchez-Lavega et al., Nature, 2015, doi:10.1038/nature14162], the cause of which remains to be explained. The estimated brightness of the plume exceeds that expected for auroral emissions, and its projected altitude greatly exceeds that at which clouds are expected to form. We report on in-situ measurements of ionospheric plasma density and solar wind parameters throughout this interval made by Mars Express, obtained over the same surface region, but at the opposing terminator. Measurements in the ionosphere at the corresponding location frequently show a disturbed structure, though this is not atypical for such regions with intense crustal magnetic fields. We tentatively conclude that the formation and/or transport of this plume to the alt...

  1. The Connection between the Corona and Chromosphere during a Multiple Event Observation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cirtain, Jonathan

    2008-01-01

    NOAA AR 10940 (Jan 25 2007 - Feb 09 2007) rotated into view producing a CME and EIT wave, and followed by at least 27 B and C class flares as rotated across the disk. As it reached the west limb it proceeded to produce a sequence of jets and filament eruptions that were observed in unprecedented detail. I present observations from TRACE, EIT, HINODE XRT / SOT / EIS, RHESSI, GOES 12 and STEREO-A COR 1 to investigate part of the sequence of events that lead to a filament eruption and sympathetic jet at 02:30 - 03:00 02/09/07. I concentrate on the topology changes and infer that external breakout reconnection was the mechanism that lead to the removal of overlying field and subsequent filament eruption I will also discuss the instrument development activities at MSFC.

  2. Modelling Local and Global Behaviour: Petri Nets and Event Coordination

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kindler, Ekkart

    2011-01-01

    Today, it is possible to generate major parts of a software system from models. Most of the generated code, however, concerns the structural parts of the software; the parts that concern the functionality or behaviour of a system are still programmed manually. In order to overcome this problem, we...... are developing the concept of coordination diagrams that define the global behaviour on top of structural software models. Basically, these diagrams define how the local behaviour of an element is coordinated with the behaviour of the elements it is connected to. The exact concepts of these coordination diagrams...... and their notation is still under development, but there exists a first prototype for experimenting and for fine-tuning its features. We call it the Event Coordination Notation (ECNO). For experimenting with the ECNO, we implemented also a simple modelling notation for the local behaviour, which is based on Petri...

  3. Cluster observations of bounday layer structure and a flux transfer event near the cusp

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. C. Fear

    2005-10-01

    Full Text Available On the 25th January 2002 between 10:00 and 12:00 UT, the four Cluster spacecraft passed through the northern high-latitude cusp, the dayside magnetosphere and into the magnetosheath in a linear formation. In the magnetosphere the PEACE electron spectrometers on the four spacecraft all observed a series of transient bursts of magnetosheath-like plasma, but without bipolar magnetic signatures in the magnetopause normal component as might be expected if the plasma had been injected by transient reconnection (flux transfer events – FTEs. Reordering the data using the magnetopause transition parameter reveals that these plasma observations, the related variations in the magnetic field and the balance of magnetic and thermal gas pressures are consistent with transient entries into a stable high-latitude boundary layer structure. However, once some of the spacecraft entered the magnetosheath, FTE signatures were observed outside the magnetopause at the same time as some of the boundary layer entries occurred at the other spacecraft inside. Thus, (a the lack of a bipolar BN signature is inconsistent with the traditional picture of a magnetospheric FTE, and (b the cause of the observed entry of the spacecraft into the boundary layer (pressure pulse or passing magnetosheath FTE can only be determined by spacecraft observations in the magnetosheath.

    Keywords. Magnetospheric physics (Magnetopause, cusp and bondary layers; Solar wind- magnetosphere interactions; Magnetosheath

  4. Unusual optical observations of OI greenline during a geospace event on 1 February 2008

    Science.gov (United States)

    Narayanan, V. Lakshmi; Gurubaran, S.; Emperumal, K.; Patil, P. T.

    2011-09-01

    We herein report the first observations of an unusual phenomenon recorded by an all-sky airglow imager from the low-latitude site Panhala (16.8°N, 74.1°E, geographic; 8.2°N geomagnetic), on the night of 1 February 2008, during the main phase of a moderate geomagnetic storm. The observations of OI 557.7 nm emission reveal discrete, transient, filamentary structures referred to as “streaks.” No such features were seen in the OI 630.0 nm emission and the mesospheric sodium and hydroxyl emissions. Here we speculate on possible mechanisms for generation of such structures, though we cannot conclude firmly that any one of them was responsible for the observed features. This is a puzzling observation made from very low geomagnetic latitude during the main phase of a moderate recurrent geomagnetic storm in the declining phase of solar cycle. In spite of the limitations in identifying the mechanism or mechanisms responsible for this striking observation, it is felt that understanding of processes driving such unusual and rare events will substantiate our knowledge on the mysterious coupling processes occurring in the equatorial upper atmosphere.

  5. 3D Evolution of a Filament Disappearance Event Observed by STEREO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gosain, S.; Schmieder, B.; Venkatakrishnan, P.; Chandra, R.; Artzner, G.

    2009-10-01

    A filament disappearance event was observed on 22 May 2008 during our recent campaign JOP 178. The filament, situated in the Southern Hemisphere, showed sinistral chirality consistent with the hemispheric rule. The event was well observed by several observatories, in particular by THEMIS. One day, before the disappearance, Hα observations showed up- and down-flows in adjacent locations along the filament, which suggest plasma motions along twisted flux rope. THEMIS and GONG observations show shearing photospheric motions leading to magnetic flux canceling around barbs. STEREO A, B spacecraft with separation angle 52.4°, showed quite different views of this untwisting flux rope in He ii 304 Å images. Here, we reconstruct the three-dimensional geometry of the filament during its eruption phase using STEREO EUV He ii 304 Å images and find that the filament was highly inclined to the solar normal. The He ii 304 Å movies show individual threads, which oscillate and rise to an altitude of about 120 Mm with apparent velocities of about 100 km s-1 during the rapid evolution phase. Finally, as the flux rope expands into the corona, the filament disappears by becoming optically thin to undetectable levels. No CME was detected by STEREO, only a faint CME was recorded by LASCO at the beginning of the disappearance phase at 02:00 UT, which could be due to partial filament eruption. Further, STEREO Fe xii 195 Å images showed bright loops beneath the filament prior to the disappearance phase, suggesting magnetic reconnection below the flux rope.

  6. Generating extreme weather event sets from very large ensembles of regional climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Massey, Neil; Guillod, Benoit; Otto, Friederike; Allen, Myles; Jones, Richard; Hall, Jim

    2015-04-01

    Generating extreme weather event sets from very large ensembles of regional climate models Neil Massey, Benoit P. Guillod, Friederike E. L. Otto, Myles R. Allen, Richard Jones, Jim W. Hall Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK Extreme events can have large impacts on societies and are therefore being increasingly studied. In particular, climate change is expected to impact the frequency and intensity of these events. However, a major limitation when investigating extreme weather events is that, by definition, only few events are present in observations. A way to overcome this issue it to use large ensembles of model simulations. Using the volunteer distributed computing (VDC) infrastructure of weather@home [1], we run a very large number (10'000s) of RCM simulations over the European domain at a resolution of 25km, with an improved land-surface scheme, nested within a free-running GCM. Using VDC allows many thousands of climate model runs to be computed. Using observations for the GCM boundary forcings we can run historical "hindcast" simulations over the past 100 to 150 years. This allows us, due to the chaotic variability of the atmosphere, to ascertain how likely an extreme event was, given the boundary forcings, and to derive synthetic event sets. The events in these sets did not actually occur in the observed record but could have occurred given the boundary forcings, with an associated probability. The event sets contain time-series of fields of meteorological variables that allow impact modellers to assess the loss the event would incur. Projections of events into the future are achieved by modelling projections of the sea-surface temperature (SST) and sea-ice boundary forcings, by combining the variability of the SST in the observed record with a range of warming signals derived from the varying responses of SSTs in the CMIP5 ensemble to elevated greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in three RCP scenarios. Simulating the future with a

  7. Characterizing the Relationship of Tremor and Slip during Recent ETS Events in Northern Cascadia using Strainmeters, GPS, and Tremor Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krogstad, R. D.; Schmidt, D. A.

    2014-12-01

    We investigate the relationship between slip and tremor during multiple recent slow slip events in northern Cascadia. While the relationship of geodetically detectable slow slip and nonvolcanic tremor appears to be broadly coincident, the exact spatial and temporal characteristics remain unclear at a finer scale. Typical GPS derived slip distributions tend to be spatially and temporally smoothed and offset slightly updip of tremor distributions. These discrepancies may be real, or they may be a consequence of the resolution of GPS data or an artifact of the inversion methodology. Borehole strainmeters provide additional independent geodetic constraints for characterizing slip, provide greater temporal resolution, and greater precision than GPS. However, various non-tectonic artifacts and other sources of error have limited the number of usable stations and made deriving reliable information from strainmeters during slip events difficult. We utilize strainmeters with low levels of noise and minimal observable artifacts to constrain forward models and to provide additional independent observations in joint geodetic inversions with GPS data. A series of slip distributions are derived by inverting strainmeter and GPS data using the Kalman-filter-based Extended Network Inversion Filter. To compare the tremor distributions to the geodetically derived slip we also construct slip distributions using tremor occurrences as a proxy for localized slip on the plate interface. The magnitude of slip per tremor occurrence is then scaled to best match the observed surface displacements. Separate slip distributions informed by GPS and tremor are then used to predict strain time series. The comparisons between strain predictions and observations produce mixed results. This may indicate that that tremor and slip are not always coincident. This is particularly evident during the Aug. 2010 event, where the peak GPS-derived slip is located in a region with decreased tremor activity

  8. A Dynamic Approach to Modeling Dependence Between Human Failure Events

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boring, Ronald Laurids [Idaho National Laboratory

    2015-09-01

    In practice, most HRA methods use direct dependence from THERP—the notion that error be- gets error, and one human failure event (HFE) may increase the likelihood of subsequent HFEs. In this paper, we approach dependence from a simulation perspective in which the effects of human errors are dynamically modeled. There are three key concepts that play into this modeling: (1) Errors are driven by performance shaping factors (PSFs). In this context, the error propagation is not a result of the presence of an HFE yielding overall increases in subsequent HFEs. Rather, it is shared PSFs that cause dependence. (2) PSFs have qualities of lag and latency. These two qualities are not currently considered in HRA methods that use PSFs. Yet, to model the effects of PSFs, it is not simply a matter of identifying the discrete effects of a particular PSF on performance. The effects of PSFs must be considered temporally, as the PSFs will have a range of effects across the event sequence. (3) Finally, there is the concept of error spilling. When PSFs are activated, they not only have temporal effects but also lateral effects on other PSFs, leading to emergent errors. This paper presents the framework for tying together these dynamic dependence concepts.

  9. Modelling the interaction between flooding events and economic growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grames, Johanna; Fürnkranz-Prskawetz, Alexia; Grass, Dieter; Viglione, Alberto; Blöschl, Günter

    2016-04-01

    Recently socio-hydrology models have been proposed to analyze the interplay of community risk-coping culture, flooding damage and economic growth. These models descriptively explain the feedbacks between socio-economic development and natural disasters such as floods. Complementary to these descriptive models, we develop a dynamic optimization model, where the inter-temporal decision of an economic agent interacts with the hydrological system. This interdisciplinary approach matches with the goals of Panta Rhei i.e. to understand feedbacks between hydrology and society. It enables new perspectives but also shows limitations of each discipline. Young scientists need mentors from various scientific backgrounds to learn their different research approaches and how to best combine them such that interdisciplinary scientific work is also accepted by different science communities. In our socio-hydrology model we apply a macro-economic decision framework to a long-term flood-scenario. We assume a standard macro-economic growth model where agents derive utility from consumption and output depends on physical capital that can be accumulated through investment. To this framework we add the occurrence of flooding events which will destroy part of the capital. We identify two specific periodic long term solutions and denote them rich and poor economies. Whereas rich economies can afford to invest in flood defense and therefore avoid flood damage and develop high living standards, poor economies prefer consumption instead of investing in flood defense capital and end up facing flood damages every time the water level rises. Nevertheless, they manage to sustain at least a low level of physical capital. We identify optimal investment strategies and compare simulations with more frequent and more intense high water level events.

  10. ATLAS TrackingEvent Data Model -- 12.0.0

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    ATLAS; Akesson, F.; Atkinson, T.; Costa, M.J.; Elsing, M.; Fleischmann, S.; Gaponenko, A.; Liebig, W.; Moyse, E.; Salzburger, A.; Siebel, M.

    2006-07-23

    In this report the event data model (EDM) relevant for tracking in the ATLAS experiment is presented. The core component of the tracking EDM is a common track object which is suited to describe tracks in the innermost tracking sub-detectors and in the muon detectors in offline as well as online reconstruction. The design of the EDM was driven by a demand for modularity and extensibility while taking into account the different requirements of the clients. The structure of the track object and the representation of the tracking-relevant information are described in detail.

  11. Modelling Local and Global Behaviour: Petri Nets and Event Coordination

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kindler, Ekkart

    2012-01-01

    to address this problem, we developed the notation of coordination diagrams, which allows us to define the global behaviour of a software system on top of existing class diagrams. One of the major objectives of coordination diagrams was to make it easy to integrate them and the code generated from them...... call it the Event Coordination Notation (ECNO). ECNO’s coordination diagrams define the global behaviour of a system only: they define how the local behaviour is coordinated and jointly executed in so-called interactions. In principle, ECNO is independent from a specific notation for modelling...

  12. A spatial and nonstationary model for the frequency of extreme rainfall events

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gregersen, Ida Bülow; Madsen, Henrik; Rosbjerg, Dan;

    2013-01-01

    Changes in the properties of extreme rainfall events have been observed worldwide. In relation to the discussion of ongoing climatic changes, it is of high importance to attribute these changes to known sources of climate variability. Focusing on spatial and temporal changes in the frequency...... of extreme rainfall events, a statistical model is tested for this purpose. The model is built on the theory of generalized linear models and uses Poisson regression solved by generalized estimation equations. Spatial and temporal explanatory variables can be included simultaneously, and their relative...... importance can be assessed. Additionally, the model allows for a spatial correlation between the measurements. Data from a Danish rain gauge network are used as a case study for model evaluation. Focusing on 10 min and 24 h rainfall extremes, it was found that regional variation in the mean annual...

  13. Fog Induced Aerosol Modification Observed by AERONET, Including Occurrences During Major Air Pollution Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eck, T. F.; Holben, B. N.; Reid, J. S.; Giles, D. M.; Rivas, M.; Singh, R. P.; Tripathi, S. N.; Bruegge, C. J.; Li, Z.; Platnick, S. E.; Arnold, T.; Ferrare, R. A.; Hostetler, C. A.; Burton, S. P.; Kim, J.; Kim, Y. J.; Sinyuk, A.; Dubovik, O.; Arola, A. T.; Schafer, J.; Artaxo, P.; Smirnov, A.; Chen, H.; Goloub, P.

    2015-12-01

    The modification of aerosol optical properties due to interaction with fog is examined from measurements made by sun/sky radiometers at several AERONET sites. Retrieved total column volume size distributions for cases identified as aerosol modified by fog often show very a large 'middle mode' submicron radius (~0.4 to 0.5 microns), which is typically seen as a component of a bimodal sub-micron distribution. These middle mode sized particles are often called cloud-processed or residual aerosol. This bimodal accumulation mode distribution may be due to one mode (the larger one) from fog-processed aerosol and the other from interstitial aerosol, or possibly from two different aerosol species (differing chemical composition) with differing hygroscopic growth factors. The size of the fine mode particles from AERONET retrieved for these cases exceeds the size of sub-micron sized particles retrieved for nearly all other aerosol types, suggesting significant modification of aerosols within the fog or cloud environment. In-situ measured aerosol size distributions made during other fog events are compared to the AERONET retrievals, and show close agreement in the residual mode particle size. Almucantar retrievals are analyzed from the Kanpur site in the Indo-Gangetic Plain in India (fog in January), Beijing (fog in winter), Fresno, CA in the San Joaquin Valley (fog in winter), South Korea (Yellow Sea fog in spring), Arica on the northern coast of Chile (stratocumulus), and several other sites with aerosol observations made after fog dissipated. Additionally, several major air pollution events are discussed where extremely high aerosol concentrations were measured at the surface and during which fog also occurred, resulting in the detection very large fine mode aerosols (residual mode) from AERONET retrievals in some of these events. Low wind speeds that occurred during these events were conducive to both pollutant accumulation and also fog formation. The presence of fog then

  14. Application of a Coupled WRF-Hydro Model for Extreme Flood Events in the Mediterranean Basins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fredj, Erick; Givati, Amir

    2015-04-01

    More accurate simulation of precipitation and streamflow is a challenge that can be addressed by using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) in conjunction with the hydrological model coupling extension package (WRF-Hydro).This is demonstrated for the country of Israel and surrounding regions. Simulations from the coupled WRF/WRF-Hydro system were verified against measurements from rain gauges and hydrometric stations in the domain for the 2012-2013 and 2013-2014 winters (wet seasons). These periods were characterized by many punctuated hydrometeorological and hydroclimatic events, including both severe drought and extreme floods events. The WRF model simulations were initialized with 0.5 degree NOAA/NCEP GFS model data. The model domain was set up with 3 domains, up to 3km grid spacing resolution. The model configuration used here constitutes a fully distributed, 3-dimensional, variably-saturated surface and subsurface flow model. Application of terrain routing and, subsequently, channel and reservoir routing functions, to the uni-dimensional NOAA land surface model was motivated by the need to account for increased complexity in land surface states and fluxes and to provide a more physically-realistic conceptualization of terrestrial hydrologic processes. The simulation results indicated a good agreement with actual peak discharges for extreme flood events and for full hydrographs. Specifically the coupled WRF/WRF-Hydro model as configured in this study shows improvement in simulated precipitation over one way WRF precipitation simulations. The correlation between the observed and the simulated precipitation using the fully coupled WRF/WRF-Hydro system was higher than the standalone WRF model, especially for convective precipitation events that affect arid regions in the domain. The results suggest that the coupled WRF/WRF-Hydro system has potential for flood forecasting and flood warning purposes at 0-72 hour lead times for large cool season storm

  15. Fortuitous Plasma Observations During the Mars Atmospheric "Plume" Event of March-April 2012

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrews, David; Barabash, Stas; Edberg, Niklas; Gurnett, Donald; Hall, Ben; Holmström, Mats; Lester, Mark; Opgenoorth, Hermann; Ramstad, Robin; Sanchez-Cano, Beatriz; Way, Michael; Witasse, Olivier; Morgan, David

    2016-04-01

    We present initial analysis and conclusions from plasma observations made during the reported `Mars Dust plume event' of March - April 2012.During this period, multiple independent amateur observers detected a localized, high-altitude feature over the Martian terminator [Sanchez-Lavega et al., Nature, 2015, doi:10.1038/nature14162], the explanation for which remains incomplete. The brightness of the feature in visible light is too extreme for auroral emissions to explain, despite its occurrence at a location where these have been previously reported. Likewise, the (projected) altitude of the feature is significantly too high to allow for the local formation of clouds. Fortuitously, the orbit of ESA's Mars Express allowed the measurement of ionospheric plasma density and solar wind parameters over the precise location of the plume sighting at multiple points during this interval. Based on these observations, we tentatively conclude that the formation and/or transport of this plume to the altitudes where it was observed was in part the result of a large Coronal Mass Ejection encountering the Martian system. However, while measurements of ionospheric plasma density at the corresponding altitudes indicate a disturbed structure, this is not a-typical of this location over Mars. Finally, we briefly discuss some possible mechanisms that may lead to the formation of this plume.

  16. High--cadence observations of spicular-type events on the Sun

    CERN Document Server

    Shetye, J; Scullion, E; Nelson, C J; Kuridze, D; Henriques, V; Woeger, F; Ray, T

    2016-01-01

    Chromospheric observations taken at high cadence and high spatial resolution show a range of spicule like features, including Type I, Type II (as well as RBEs and RREs) and those which seem to appear within a few seconds, which if interpreted as flows would imply mass flow velocities in excess of 1000 km/s. This article seeks to quantify and study rapidly appearing spicular type events. We also compare the MOMFBD and speckle reconstruction techniques in order to understand if such spicules are more favourably observed using a particular technique. We use spectral imaging observations taken with the CRISP on the Swedish 1 m Solar Telescope. Data was sampled at multiple positions within the Halpha line profile for both an ondisk and limb location. The data is host to numerous rapidly appearing features which are observed at different locations within the Halpha line profile. The feature's durations vary between 10 and 20 s and lengths around 3500 km. Sometimes, a time delay in their appearance between the blue ...

  17. Energetic Particle Observations and Propagation in the Three-dimensional Heliosphere During the 2006 December Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malandraki, O. E.; Marsden, R. G.; Lario, D.; Tranquille, C.; Heber, B.; Mewaldt, R. A.; Cohen, C. M. S.; Lanzerotti, L. J.; Forsyth, R. J.; Elliott, H. A.; Vogiatzis, I. I.; Geranios, A.

    2009-10-01

    We report observations of solar energetic particles obtained by the HI-SCALE and COSPIN/LET instruments onboard Ulysses during the period of isolated but intense solar activity in 2006 December, in the declining phase of the solar activity cycle. We present measurements of particle intensities and also discuss observations of particle anisotropies and composition in selected energy ranges. Active Region 10930 produced a series of major solar flares with the strongest one (X9.0) recorded on December 5 after it rotated into view on the solar east limb. Located over the South Pole of the Sun, at >72°S heliographic latitude and 2.8 AU radial distance, Ulysses provided unique measurements for assessing the nature of particle propagation to high latitudes under near-minimum solar activity conditions, in a relatively undisturbed heliosphere. The observations seem to exclude the possibility that magnetic field lines originating at low latitudes reached Ulysses, suggesting either that the energetic particles observed as large solar energetic particle (SEP) events over the South Pole of the Sun in 2006 December were released when propagating coronal waves reached high-latitude field lines connected to Ulysses, or underwent perpendicular diffusion. We also discuss comparisons with energetic particle data acquired by the STEREO and Advanced Composition Explorer in the ecliptic plane near 1 AU during this period.

  18. Magnetic Upflow Events in the Quiet-Sun Photosphere. I. Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jafarzadeh, S.; Rouppe van der Voort, L.; de la Cruz Rodríguez, J.

    2015-09-01

    Rapid magnetic upflows in the quiet-Sun photosphere were recently uncovered from both Sunrise/IMaX and Hinode/SOT observations. Here, we study magnetic upflow events (MUEs) from high-quality, high- (spatial, temporal, and spectral) resolution, and full Stokes observations in four photospheric magnetically sensitive Fe i lines centered at 5250.21, 6173.34, 6301.51, and 6302.50 Å acquired with the Swedish Solar Telescope (SST)/CRISP. We detect MUEs by subtracting in-line Stokes V signals from those in the far blue wing whose signal-to-noise ratio (S/N) ≥slant 7. We find a larger number of MUEs at any given time (2.0× {10}-2 arcsec-2), larger by one to two orders of magnitude, than previously reported. The MUEs appear to fall into four classes presenting different shapes of Stokes V profiles with (I) asymmetric double lobes, (II) single lobes, (III) double-humped (two same-polarity lobes), and (IV) three lobes (an extra blueshifted bump in addition to double lobes), of which less than half are single-lobed. We also find that MUEs are almost equally distributed in network and internetwork areas and they appear in the interior or at the edge of granules in both regions. Distributions of physical properties, except for horizontal velocity, of the MUEs (namely, Stokes V signal, size, line-of-sight velocity, and lifetime) are almost identical for the different spectral lines in our data. A bisector analysis of our spectrally resolved observations shows that these events host modest upflows and do not show a direct indication of the presence of supersonic upflows reported earlier. Our findings reveal that the numbers, types (classes), and properties determined for MUEs can strongly depend on the detection techniques used and the properties of the employed data, namely, S/Ns, resolutions, and wavelengths.

  19. Models and Observations of Sunspot Penumbrae

    CERN Document Server

    Borrero, J M

    2008-01-01

    The mysteries of sunspot penumbrae have been under an intense scrutiny for the past 10 years. During this time, some models have been proposed and refuted, while the surviving ones had to be modified, adapted and evolved to explain the ever-increasing array of observational constraints. In this contribution I will review two of the present models, emphasizing their contributions to this field, but also pinpointing some of their inadequacies to explain a number of recent observations at very high spatial resolution. To help explaining these new observations I propose some modifications to each of them. These modifications bring those two seemingly opposite models closer together into a general picture that agrees well with recent 3D magneto-hydrodynamic simulations.

  20. Suprathermal particle events observed by WIND spacecraft in interplanetary space during 1995-1999 and their classification

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SUN LingPeng; WU DeJin; WANG DeYu

    2008-01-01

    Fifty-five suprathermal particle events were selected from WIND observations between 1995 and 1999. Based on systematic analysis on the observational characteristics of these events a two-parameter (the rising time and the flux ratio of electrons to protons in each event) classification method was proposed to classify these events. The three clas- sified classes are (1) impulsive electron events with the flux ratio of electrons to protons being bigger than 1 and rising time being shorter than 200 min, (2) impulsive proton events with the flux ratio being smaller than 1 and rising time being shorter than 200 min, and (3) gradual proton events with the flux ratio being smaller than 1 and the rising time being longer than 200 min. In the past, "impulsive solar electron events" were under in- tense research. However, because the selection standards of their velocity dispersions or pitch-angle distributions were inadequate, statistical surveys of selected events were dif- ferent from each other and even some conclusions were not consistent with the theory, for example, the relation of type-Ⅲ solar radio bursts to the "impulsive solar electron events". The first class of impulsive electron events are associated with type-Ⅲ radio bursts and with clear velocity dispersions; therefore they ought to originate from the Sun. The second class of the events, which have short continuance time and usually are not associated with type-Ⅲ radio bursts and without velocity dispersion, are still far away from inter- planetary shocks and most of them do not one-to-one correspond to corrotating interact- ing regions (CIRs); such events are possible results of local interplanetary magnetic field reconnection or electromagnetic disturbances. Finally, about 2/3 gradual proton events of the third class occur with interplanetary shocks, the delay times of which are almost equal to the rising time. Some of these events can be understood as particle accelerations by shocks.

  1. Suprathermal particle events observed by WIND spacecraft in interplanetary space during 1995―1999 and their classification

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2008-01-01

    Fifty-five suprathermal particle events were selected from WIND observations between 1995 and 1999. Based on systematic analysis on the observational characteristics of these events a two-parameter (the rising time and the flux ratio of electrons to protons in each event) classification method was proposed to classify these events. The three clas-sified classes are (1) impulsive electron events with the flux ratio of electrons to protons being bigger than 1 and rising time being shorter than 200 min, (2) impulsive proton events with the flux ratio being smaller than 1 and rising time being shorter than 200 min, and (3) gradual proton events with the flux ratio being smaller than 1 and the rising time being longer than 200 min. In the past, "impulsive solar electron events" were under in-tense research. However, because the selection standards of their velocity dispersions or pitch-angle distributions were inadequate, statistical surveys of selected events were dif-ferent from each other and even some conclusions were not consistent with the theory, for example, the relation of type-III solar radio bursts to the "impulsive solar electron events". The first class of impulsive electron events are associated with type-III radio bursts and with clear velocity dispersions; therefore they ought to originate from the Sun. The second class of the events, which have short continuance time and usually are not associated with type-III radio bursts and without velocity dispersion, are still far away from inter-planetary shocks and most of them do not one-to-one correspond to corrotating interact-ing regions (CIRs); such events are possible results of local interplanetary magnetic field reconnection or electromagnetic disturbances. Finally, about 2/3 gradual proton events of the third class occur with interplanetary shocks, the delay times of which are almost equal to the rising time. Some of these events can be understood as particle accelerations by shocks.

  2. Multivariate Logistic Model to estimate Effective Rainfall for an Event

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, S. K.; Patil, Sachin; Bárdossy, A.

    2009-04-01

    Multivariate logistic models are widely used in biological, medical, and social sciences but logistic models are seldom applied to hydrological problems. A logistic function behaves linear in the mid range and tends to be non-linear as it approaches to the extremes, hence it is more flexible than a linear function and capable of dealing with skew-distributed variables. They seem to bear good potential to handle asymmetrically distributed hydrological variables of extreme occurrence. In this study, logistic regression approach is implemented to derive a multivariate logistic function for effective rainfall; in the process runoff coefficient is assumed to be a Bernoulli-distributed dependent variable. A backward stepwise logistic regression procedure was performed to derive the logistic transfer function between runoff coefficient and catchment as well as event variables (e.g. drainage density, soil moisture etc). The investigation was carried out using data base for 244 rainfall-runoff events from 42 mesoscale catchments located in south-west Germany. The performance of the derived logistic transfer function was compared with that of SCS method for estimation of effective rainfall.

  3. ENLIL Global Heliospheric Modeling as a Context For Multipoint Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mays, M. Leila; Odstrcil, Dusan; Luhmann, Janet; Bain, Hazel; Li, Yan; Schwadron, Nathan; Gorby, Matt; Thompson, Barbara; Jian, Lan; Möstl, Christian; Rouillard, Alexis; Davies, Jackie; Temmer, Manuela; Rastaetter, Lutz; Taktakishvili, Aleksandre; MacNeice, Peter; Kuznetsova, Maria

    2016-04-01

    We present heliospheric simulation case studies using recent enhancements to WSA--ENLIL+Cone (version 2.8) at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC). The global 3D MHD ENLIL model provides a time-dependent description of the background solar wind plasma and magnetic field using a sequence of WSA coronal model maps as input at the inner boundary of 21.5 Rs. A homogeneous, over-pressured hydrodynamic plasma cloud is launched through the inner boundary of the heliospheric computational domain and into the background solar wind. Multipoint observations help constrain simulations and this modeling system provides global context and arrival times of the solar wind streams and CMEs at Earth, planets, and spacecraft. Additionally, one can extract the magnetic topologies of observer-connected magnetic field lines and all plasma and shock properties along those field lines. ENLIL "likelihood/all-clear" forecasting maps provide expected intensity, timing/duration of events at locations throughout the heliosphere with "possible SEP affected areas" color-coded based on shock strength. ENLIL simulations are also useful to drive SEP models such as the Solar Energetic Particle Model (SEPMOD) (Luhmann et al. 2007, 2010) and Energetic Particle Radiation Environment Module (EPREM) (Schwadron et al., 2010). SEPMOD injects protons onto a sequence observer field lines at intensities dependent on the connected shock source strength which are then integrated at the observer to approximate the proton flux. EPREM couples with MHD models such as ENLIL and computes energetic particle distributions based on the focused transport equation along a Lagrangian grid of nodes that propagate out with the solar wind. Studies have shown that accurate descriptions of the heliosphere, and hence modeled CME arrival times and SEPs, are achieved by ENLIL only when the background solar wind is well-reproduced and CME parameters are accurate. It is essential to include all of the relevant CMEs and

  4. Io's Loki Patera: Modeling of three brightening events in 2013-2016

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Kleer, Katherine; de Pater, Imke

    2017-06-01

    Loki Patera is one of the most dramatically time-variable volcanic features on Io, exhibiting episodic brightening events every 1-3 years that may produce over 15% of Io's global heat flow. We observed three such brightening events with adaptive optics imaging at the Keck and Gemini N telescopes over the course of 70 nights of observation in 2013-2016. The high cadence and multi-wavelength nature of the observations provides constraints on models for activity at Loki Patera. The Matson et al. (2006) model for Loki Patera as an overturning basaltic magma sea is adapted to fit the observations of all three events. In particular, we adjust the details of the overturn progression, and modify the lava thermal properties to include dependencies on temperature and porosity, to improve the fit to the data. The preferred models find overturn front propagation velocities of 1.2-1.7 km/day, corresponding to resurfacing rates of 1500-2200 m2/s. The time intervals of 440-540 days between successive events are roughly consistent with the 540-day period calculated by Rathbun et al. (2002) for events prior to 2001. The best coverage was obtained for the 2016 brightening; model fits to this event require a lava bulk thermal conductivity of 0.55-0.75 W/m/K, with the best fit obtained for a value of ∼0.7 W/m/K and an average porosity that decreases during cooling. For all three events, the overturn front appears to propagate around the patera in the clockwise direction, opposite to what has been inferred for past brightening events. There is evidence that the overturn may be more complex than a single propagating wave, perhaps involving multiple simultaneous resurfacing waves as well as portions of the patera that are active even after the nominal bright phase has ended. The measured intensities are anomalously low when Loki Patera is viewed at high emission angles, suggestive of topographic shadowing due to a raised area or the edge of the depression in which the magma sea resides.

  5. A stochastical event-based continuous time step rainfall generator based on Poisson rectangular pulse and microcanonical random cascade models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pohle, Ina; Niebisch, Michael; Zha, Tingting; Schümberg, Sabine; Müller, Hannes; Maurer, Thomas; Hinz, Christoph

    2017-04-01

    Rainfall variability within a storm is of major importance for fast hydrological processes, e.g. surface runoff, erosion and solute dissipation from surface soils. To investigate and simulate the impacts of within-storm variabilities on these processes, long time series of rainfall with high resolution are required. Yet, observed precipitation records of hourly or higher resolution are in most cases available only for a small number of stations and only for a few years. To obtain long time series of alternating rainfall events and interstorm periods while conserving the statistics of observed rainfall events, the Poisson model can be used. Multiplicative microcanonical random cascades have been widely applied to disaggregate rainfall time series from coarse to fine temporal resolution. We present a new coupling approach of the Poisson rectangular pulse model and the multiplicative microcanonical random cascade model that preserves the characteristics of rainfall events as well as inter-storm periods. In the first step, a Poisson rectangular pulse model is applied to generate discrete rainfall events (duration and mean intensity) and inter-storm periods (duration). The rainfall events are subsequently disaggregated to high-resolution time series (user-specified, e.g. 10 min resolution) by a multiplicative microcanonical random cascade model. One of the challenges of coupling these models is to parameterize the cascade model for the event durations generated by the Poisson model. In fact, the cascade model is best suited to downscale rainfall data with constant time step such as daily precipitation data. Without starting from a fixed time step duration (e.g. daily), the disaggregation of events requires some modifications of the multiplicative microcanonical random cascade model proposed by Olsson (1998): Firstly, the parameterization of the cascade model for events of different durations requires continuous functions for the probabilities of the multiplicative

  6. The link between the Barents Sea and ENSO events simulated by NEMO model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. N. Stepanov

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available An analysis of observational data in the Barents Sea along a meridian at 33°30' E between 70°30' and 72°30' N has reported a negative correlation between El Niño/La Niña Southern Oscillation (ENSO events and water temperature in the top 200 m: the temperature drops about 0.5 °C during warm ENSO events while during cold ENSO events the top 200 m layer of the Barents Sea is warmer.

    Results from 1 and 1/4-degree global NEMO models show a similar response for the whole Barents Sea. During the strong warm ENSO event in 1997–1998 an anomalous anticyclonic atmospheric circulation over the Barents Sea enhances heat loses, as well as substantially influencing the Barents Sea inflow from the North Atlantic, via changes in ocean currents. Under normal conditions along the Scandinavian peninsula there is a warm current entering the Barents Sea from the North Atlantic, however after the 1997–1998 event this current is weakened.

    During 1997–1998 the model annual mean temperature in the Barents Sea is decreased by about 0.8 °C, also resulting in a higher sea ice volume. In contrast during the cold ENSO events in 1999–2000 and 2007–2008, the model shows a lower sea ice volume, and higher annual mean temperatures in the upper layer of the Barents Sea of about 0.7 °C. An analysis of model data shows that the strength of the Atlantic inflow in the Barents Sea is the main cause of heat content variability, and is forced by changing pressure and winds in the North Atlantic. However, surface heat-exchange with the atmosphere provides the means by which the Barents sea heat budget relaxes to normal in the subsequent year after the ENSO events.

  7. Can new heavy gauge bosons be observed in ultra-high energy cosmic neutrino events?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ježo, T.; Klasen, M.; Lyonnet, F.; Montanet, F.; Schienbein, I.; Tartare, M.

    2014-04-01

    A wide range of models beyond the Standard Model predict charged and neutral resonances, generically called W' and Z' bosons, respectively. In this paper we study the impact of such resonances on the deep inelastic scattering of ultra-high energy neutrinos as well as on the resonant charged current ν¯ee- scattering (Glashow resonance). We find that the effects of such resonances cannot be observed with the Pierre Auger Observatory or any foreseeable upgrade of it.

  8. Observation results of relativistic electrons detected by Fengyun-1 satellite and analysis of relativistic electron enhancement (REE) events

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2008-01-01

    The space particle component detector on Fengyun-1 satellite which works at the sun-synchronous orbit of about 870 km altitude has detected relativistic electrons for a long time. In comparison with the SAMPEX satellite observations during 1999 -2004, the relativistic electron data from Fengyun-1 satellite from June 1999 to 2005 are used to analyze the relativistic electron enhancement (REE) events at the low earth orbit, and the possible correlation among REE events at the low earth orbit, high-speed solar wind and geomagnetic storms is discussed. The statistical result presents that 45 REE events are found in total during this time period, and the strong REE events with the maximum daily average flux > 400 cm?2·sr?1·s?1 occur mostly during the transition period from solar maximum to solar minimum. Among these 45 REE events, four strong REE events last a longer time period from 26- to 51-day and correlate closely with high speed solar wind and strong geo- magnetic storms. Meanwhile, several strong geomagnetic storms occur continu- ously before these REE events, and these continuous geomagnetic storms would be an important factor causing these long-lasting strong REE events. The correlation analysis for overall 45 events indicates that the strength of the REE events corre- lates with the solar wind speed and the strength of the geomagnetic storm, and the correlation for strong REE events is much stronger than that for weak REE events.

  9. Discovery of an outflow from radio observations of the tidal disruption event ASASSN-14li

    CERN Document Server

    Alexander, Kate D; Guillochon, James; Zauderer, Bevin A; Williams, Peter K G

    2015-01-01

    The tidal disruption of stars by supermassive black holes (SMBH) lights up dormant systems and can be used to probe accretion and outflow processes. Theoretical calculations indicate that most tidal disruption events (TDEs) lead to super-Eddington accretion, which in turn drives outflows. The discovery of luminous radio emission from the $\\gamma$-ray TDE Sw J1644+57 revealed the formation of a relativistic jetted outflow, but such events represent $\\lesssim 1\\%$ of the TDE population. Direct evidence for outflows in the bulk of the TDE population, discovered through optical, ultraviolet (UV), and X-ray observations, has been lacking. Here we report the discovery of transient radio emission from the nearby optically-discovered TDE ASASSN-14li (distance of 90 Mpc), making it the first normal TDE detected in the radio, and unambiguously pointing to the formation of a non-relativistic outflow with a kinetic energy of $\\approx 10^{48}$ erg, a velocity of $\\approx 12,000-39,000$ km s$^{-1}$, and a mass of $\\approx ...

  10. Transient Events in Archival Very Large Array Observations of the Galactic Center

    CERN Document Server

    Chiti, Anirudh; Wharton, Robert; Cordes, James; Lazio, T Joseph W; Kaplan, David L; Bower, Geoffrey C; Croft, Steve

    2016-01-01

    The Galactic center has some of the highest stellar densities in the Galaxy and a range of interstellar scattering properties that may aid in the detection of new radio-selected transient events. Here we describe a search for radio transients in the Galactic center using over 200 hours of archival data from the Very Large Array (VLA) at 5 and 8.4 GHz. Every observation of SgrA* from 1985$-$2005 has been searched using an automated processing and detection pipeline sensitive to transients with timescales between 30 seconds and five minutes with a typical detection threshold of $\\sim$100 mJy. Eight possible candidates pass tests to filter false-positives from radio-frequency interference, calibration errors, and imaging artifacts. Two events are identified as promising candidates based on the smoothness of their light curves. Despite the high quality of their light curves, these detections remain suspect due to evidence of incomplete subtraction of the complex structure in the Galactic center, and apparent cont...

  11. Drainage events from a glacier-dammed lake, Bear Glacier, Alaska: Remote sensing and field observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilcox, A. C.; Wade, A. A.; Evans, E. G.

    2014-09-01

    We investigated drainage events from a glacier-dammed lake on Bear Glacier, Alaska, and associated outburst floods and hazards. The glacier-dammed lake, which we call Ice Lake, is 17.5 km up-glacier from Bear Glacier's terminus at Bear Glacier Lake. We combine field observations and remote sensing to examine temporal changes in the size of Ice Lake, the frequency and timing of its drainage, and down-glacier propagation of its outburst floods. We found that in recent years, Ice Lake has likely drained every year or two, in late summer or fall (August-October), with outbursts generally following the damming of sufficient water to create a lake area of between 0.35 and 0.5 km2. Ice Lake has migrated downvalley to the south since the 1990s, likely as a result of thinning of the glacier that dams it. In situ measurements of a drainage event in October 2010 showed that Ice Lake drained over a period of days, which manifested at Bear Glacier Lake as a gradual, multiday increase and then decrease in water levels. Glacial lake outburst flooding at Bear Glacier creates risks for sea kayakers in Bear Glacier Lake and may be relevant to understanding the effects of climate warming on glacier-dammed and proglacial lakes.

  12. A twenty-first century California observing network for monitoring extreme weather events

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, A.B.; Anderson, M.L.; Dettinger, M.D.; Ralph, F.M.; Hinojosa, A.; Cayan, D.R.; Hartman, R.K.; Reynolds, D.W.; Johnson, L.E.; Schneider, T.L.; Cifelli, R.; Toth, Z.; Gutman, S.I.; King, C.W.; Gehrke, F.; Johnston, P.E.; Walls, C.; Mann, Dorte; Gottas, D.J.; Coleman, T.

    2013-01-01

    During Northern Hemisphere winters, the West Coast of North America is battered by extratropical storms. The impact of these storms is of paramount concern to California, where aging water supply and flood protection infrastructures are challenged by increased standards for urban flood protection, an unusually variable weather regime, and projections of climate change. Additionally, there are inherent conflicts between releasing water to provide flood protection and storing water to meet requirements for water supply, water quality, hydropower generation, water temperature and flow for at-risk species, and recreation. In order to improve reservoir management and meet the increasing demands on water, improved forecasts of precipitation, especially during extreme events, is required. Here we describe how California is addressing their most important and costliest environmental issue – water management – in part, by installing a state-of-the-art observing system to better track the area’s most severe wintertime storms.

  13. Compton sources for the observation of elastic photon-photon scattering events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Micieli, D.; Drebot, I.; Bacci, A.; Milotti, E.; Petrillo, V.; Conti, M. Rossetti; Rossi, A. R.; Tassi, E.; Serafini, L.

    2016-09-01

    We present the design of a photon-photon collider based on conventional Compton gamma sources for the observation of elastic γ γ scattering. Two symmetric electron beams, generated by photocathodes and accelerated in linacs, produce two primary gamma rays through Compton backscattering with two high energy lasers. The elastic photon-photon scattering is analyzed by start-to-end simulations from the photocathodes to the detector. A new Monte Carlo code has been developed ad hoc for the counting of the QED events. Realistic numbers of the secondary gamma yield, obtained by using the parameters of existing or approved Compton devices, a discussion of the feasibility of the experiment and of the nature of the background are presented.

  14. SDSS-IV MaNGA: A serendipitous observation of a potential gas accretion event

    CERN Document Server

    Cheung, Edmond; Huang, Song; Rubin, Kate H R; Lin, Lihwai; Tremonti, Christy; Zhang, Kai; Yan, Renbin; Bizyaev, Dmitry; Boquien, Médéric; Brownstein, Joel R; Drory, Niv; Gelfand, Joseph D; Knapen, Johan H; Maiolino, Roberto; Malanushenko, Olena; Masters, Karen L; Merrifield, Michael R; Pace, Zach; Pan, Kaike; Riffel, Rogemar A; Roman-Lopes, Alexandre; Rujopakarn, Wiphu; Schneider, Donald P; Stott, John P; Thomas, Daniel; Weijmans, Anne-Marie

    2016-01-01

    The nature of warm, ionized gas outside of galaxies may illuminate several key galaxy evolutionary processes. A serendipitous observation by the MaNGA survey has revealed a large, asymmetric H$\\alpha$ complex with no optical counterpart that extends $\\approx8"$ ($\\approx6.3$ kpc) beyond the effective radius of a dusty, starbursting galaxy. This H$\\alpha$ extension is approximately three times the effective radius of the host galaxy and displays a tail-like morphology. We analyze its gas-phase metallicities, gaseous kinematics, and emission-line ratios, and discuss whether this H$\\alpha$ extension could be diffuse ionized gas, a gas accretion event, or something else. We find that this warm, ionized gas structure is most consistent with gas accretion through recycled wind material, which could be an important process that regulates the low-mass end of the galaxy stellar mass function.

  15. SDSS-IV MaNGA: A Serendipitous Observation of a Potential Gas Accretion Event

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheung, Edmond; Stark, David V.; Huang, Song; Rubin, Kate H. R.; Lin, Lihwai; Tremonti, Christy; Zhang, Kai; Yan, Renbin; Bizyaev, Dmitry; Boquien, Médéric; Brownstein, Joel R.; Drory, Niv; Gelfand, Joseph D.; Knapen, Johan H.; Maiolino, Roberto; Malanushenko, Olena; Masters, Karen L.; Merrifield, Michael R.; Pace, Zach; Pan, Kaike; Riffel, Rogemar A.; Roman-Lopes, Alexandre; Rujopakarn, Wiphu; Schneider, Donald P.; Stott, John P.; Thomas, Daniel; Weijmans, Anne-Marie

    2016-12-01

    The nature of warm, ionized gas outside of galaxies may illuminate several key galaxy evolutionary processes. A serendipitous observation by the MaNGA survey has revealed a large, asymmetric Hα complex with no optical counterpart that extends ≈8″ (≈6.3 kpc) beyond the effective radius of a dusty, starbursting galaxy. This Hα extension is approximately three times the effective radius of the host galaxy and displays a tail-like morphology. We analyze its gas-phase metallicities, gaseous kinematics, and emission-line ratios and discuss whether this Hα extension could be diffuse ionized gas, a gas accretion event, or something else. We find that this warm, ionized gas structure is most consistent with gas accretion through recycled wind material, which could be an important process that regulates the low-mass end of the galaxy stellar mass function.

  16. The substructure of a flux transfer event observed by the MMS spacecraft

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hwang, K.-J.; Sibeck, D. G.; Giles, B. L.; Pollock, C. J.; Gershman, D.; Avanov, L.; Paterson, W. R.; Dorelli, J. C.; Ergun, R. E.; Russell, C. T.; Strangeway, R. J.; Mauk, B.; Cohen, I. J.; Torbert, R. B.; Burch, J. L.

    2016-09-01

    On 15 August 2015, MMS (Magnetospheric Multiscale mission), skimming the dusk magnetopause, detected an isolated region of an increased magnetic strength and bipolar Bn, indicating a flux transfer event (FTE). The four spacecraft in a tetrahedron allowed for investigations of the shape and motion of the FTE. In particular, high-resolution particle data facilitated our exploration of FTE substructures and their magnetic connectivity inside and surrounding the FTE. Combined field and plasma observations suggest that the core fields are open, magnetically connected to the northern magnetosphere from which high-energy particles leak; ion "D" distributions characterize the axis of flux ropes that carry old-opened field lines; counterstreaming electrons superposed by parallel-heated components populate the periphery surrounding the FTE; and the interface between the core and draped regions contains a separatrix of newly opened magnetic field lines that emanate from the X line above the FTE.

  17. Assessing distractors and teamwork during surgery: developing an event-based method for direct observation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seelandt, Julia C; Tschan, Franziska; Keller, Sandra; Beldi, Guido; Jenni, Nadja; Kurmann, Anita; Candinas, Daniel; Semmer, Norbert K

    2014-11-01

    To develop a behavioural observation method to simultaneously assess distractors and communication/teamwork during surgical procedures through direct, on-site observations; to establish the reliability of the method for long (>3 h) procedures. Observational categories for an event-based coding system were developed based on expert interviews, observations and a literature review. Using Cohen's κ and the intraclass correlation coefficient, interobserver agreement was assessed for 29 procedures. Agreement was calculated for the entire surgery, and for the 1st hour. In addition, interobserver agreement was assessed between two tired observers and between a tired and a non-tired observer after 3 h of surgery. The observational system has five codes for distractors (door openings, noise distractors, technical distractors, side conversations and interruptions), eight codes for communication/teamwork (case-relevant communication, teaching, leadership, problem solving, case-irrelevant communication, laughter, tension and communication with external visitors) and five contextual codes (incision, last stitch, personnel changes in the sterile team, location changes around the table and incidents). Based on 5-min intervals, Cohen's κ was good to excellent for distractors (0.74-0.98) and for communication/teamwork (0.70-1). Based on frequency counts, intraclass correlation coefficient was excellent for distractors (0.86-0.99) and good to excellent for communication/teamwork (0.45-0.99). After 3 h of surgery, Cohen's κ was 0.78-0.93 for distractors, and 0.79-1 for communication/teamwork. The observational method developed allows a single observer to simultaneously assess distractors and communication/teamwork. Even for long procedures, high interobserver agreement can be achieved. Data collected with this method allow for investigating separate or combined effects of distractions and communication/teamwork on surgical performance and patient outcomes. Published by the

  18. Simulation of hailstorm event using Mesoscale Model MM5 with modified cloud microphysics scheme

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Chatterjee

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available Mesoscale model MM5 (Version 3.5 with some modifications in the cloud microphysics scheme of Schultz (1995, has been used to simulate two hailstorm events over Gangetic Plain of West Bengal, India. While the first event occurred on 12 March 2003 and the hails covered four districts of the state of West Bengal, India, the second hailstorm event struck Srinikatan (22.65° N, 87.7° E on 10 April 2006 at 11:32 UT and it lasted for 2–3 min. Both these events can be simulated, if the same modifications are introduced in the cloud microphysics scheme of Schultz. However, the original scheme of Schultz cannot simulate any hail.

    The results of simulation were compared with the necessary products of Doppler Weather Radar (DWR located at Kolkata (22.57° N, 88.35° E. Model products like reflectivity, graupel and horizontal wind are compared with the corresponding products of DWR. The pattern of hail development bears good similarity between model output and observation from DWR, if necessary modifications are introduced in the model. The model output of 24 h accumulated rain from 03:00 UT to next day 03:00 UT has also been compared with the corresponding product of the satellite TRMM.

  19. Transition Region and Chromospheric Signatures of Impulsive Heating Events. I. Observations

    CERN Document Server

    Warren, Harry P; Crump, Nicholas A; Simoes, Paulo J A

    2016-01-01

    We exploit the high spatial resolution and high cadence of the Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph (IRIS) to investigate the response of the transition region and chromosphere to energy deposition during a small flare. Simultaneous observations from RHESSI provide constraints on the energetic electrons precipitating into the flare footpoints while observations of XRT, AIA, and EIS allow us to measure the temperatures and emission measures from the resulting flare loops. We find clear evidence for heating over an extended period on the spatial scale of a single IRIS pixel. During the impulsive phase of this event the intensities in each pixel for the Si IV 1402.770, C II 1334.535, Mg II 2796.354 and O I 1355.598 emission lines are characterized by numerous, small-scale bursts typically lasting 60s or less. Red shifts are observed in Si IV, C II, and Mg II during the impulsive phase. Mg II shows red-shifts during the bursts and stationary emission at other times. The Si IV and C II profiles, in contrast, are ...

  20. Observation of Sudden Ionospheric Disturbances over Istanbul in Response to X-Ray Flare Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ceren Kalafatoglu Eyiguler, Emine; Kaymaz, Zerefsan; Ceren Moral, Aysegul

    2016-07-01

    Sudden ionospheric disturbances (SID) are the enhanced electron density structures in the D region ionosphere which occur in response to the increase in X-ray flares and EUV flux. SIDs can be monitored using Very Low Frequency (VLF) radio signals (3-30 kHz) which travel between the D-region and the surface of the Earth. In this study, we use SID monitors obtained from the Stanford University Solar Center and two antennas which were built at the Istanbul Technical University to track the ionospheric disturbances in the VLF range. Our antennas are capable of capturing signals from several VLF transmitting stations. In this work, we focus on the variations in the signal strength of the closest VLF transmitting station 'TBB' which is operating at 26.7 kHz frequency at BAFA, Turkey (37.43N, 27.15E). We present ITU SID observations from both antennas; show the daily variation, general structure and the typical patterns we observe as well as case studies of significant events. Our initial analysis shows close relationship between observed X-ray flares from geosynchronous GOES 13 and GOES 15 satellites and VLF station signal strength received by the monitors.

  1. Are there consistent models giving observable NSI ?

    CERN Document Server

    Martinez, Enrique Fernandez

    2013-01-01

    While the existing direct bounds on neutrino NSI are rather weak, order 10(−)(1) for propagation and 10(−)(2) for production and detection, the close connection between these interactions and new NSI affecting the better-constrained charged letpon sector through gauge invariance make these bounds hard to saturate in realistic models. Indeed, Standard Model extensions leading to neutrino NSI typically imply constraints at the 10(−)(3) level. The question of whether consistent models leading to observable neutrino NSI naturally arises and was discussed in a dedicated session at NUFACT 11. Here we summarize that discussion.

  2. Stratospheric dryness: model simulations and satellite observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Lelieveld

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available The mechanisms responsible for the extreme dryness of the stratosphere have been debated for decades. A key difficulty has been the lack of comprehensive models which are able to reproduce the observations. Here we examine results from the coupled lower-middle atmosphere chemistry general circulation model ECHAM5/MESSy1 together with satellite observations. Our model results match observed temperatures in the tropical lower stratosphere and realistically represent the seasonal and inter-annual variability of water vapor. The model reproduces the very low water vapor mixing ratios (below 2 ppmv periodically observed at the tropical tropopause near 100 hPa, as well as the characteristic tape recorder signal up to about 10 hPa, providing evidence that the dehydration mechanism is well-captured. Our results confirm that the entry of tropospheric air into the tropical stratosphere is forced by large-scale wave dynamics, whereas radiative cooling regionally decelerates upwelling and can even cause downwelling. Thin cirrus forms in the cold air above cumulonimbus clouds, and the associated sedimentation of ice particles between 100 and 200 hPa reduces water mass fluxes by nearly two orders of magnitude compared to air mass fluxes. Transport into the stratosphere is supported by regional net radiative heating, to a large extent in the outer tropics. During summer very deep monsoon convection over Southeast Asia, centered over Tibet, moistens the stratosphere.

  3. Observations and simulations of midlatitude ionospheric and thermospheric response to the January 2013 stratospheric sudden warming event

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Qian; Maute, A.; Yudin, V.; Goncharenko, L.; Noto, J.; Kerr, R.; Jacobi, Christoph

    2016-09-01

    Using observations from midlatitudes, we examine the ionospheric and thermospheric responses to the 2013 stratospheric sudden warming event by comparing data with four simulations performed by the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model eXtended (WACCM-X), Thermosphere-Ionosphere Mesosphere Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (TIMEGCM), and Thermosphere-Ionosphere Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (TIEGCM). The WACCM-X simulation was nudged by the GEOS-5 data. The two TIMEGCM simulations were nudged by the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications data and by the aforementioned WACCM-X outputs, respectively. The standard TIEGCM simulation was also performed. These four simulations were compared with Millstone Hill (42.6°N, 71.4°W) incoherent scatter radar data, Millstone Hill and Boulder (40.1°N, 105.2°W) upper and lower thermospheric wind data. The meteor radar data from Collm (51.3°N, 13°E) were also used to examine the zonal wave number of the semidiurnal tide (SD). We evaluate the model simulations of the mesospheric and thermospheric responses to the 2013 SSW. The TIMEGCM simulation nudged with the WACCM-X output has suitable stratospheric input and ionospheric dynamics and can reproduce a sharp rise of hmf2 on January 12 observed by the Millstone Hill radar. The comparison of different models with the lower thermospheric SD tide yielded mixed results. The SD tide maintained mostly as a migrating tide for most of the time and matched the TIEGCM simulation very well. The WACCM-X appeared to perform better when the observed SD tide displays the large phase shift. It also has larger and more variable SD tide amplitude. The two TIMEGCM simulations have smaller SD amplitudes in general. Observations showed complex SD tide patterns after 20 January, which was difficult to characterize as a migrating tidal mode.

  4. An Attendance Behavior Model At Sports Events: Comparison and Constrast of Two Models

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Santos, Manuel Alonso Dos

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of this research is to improve our understanding of consumer behavior in the context of sporting events by means of the use of two models which are widely used in the marketing literature...

  5. Observations and NLTE modeling of Ellerman bombs

    CERN Document Server

    Berlicki, Arkadiusz

    2014-01-01

    Ellerman bombs (EBs) are short-lived and compact structures that are observed well in the wings of the hydrogen H-alpha line. EBs are also observed in the chromospheric CaII lines and in UV continua. H-alpha line profiles of EBs show a deep absorption at the line center and enhanced emission in the line wings. Similar shapes of the line profiles are observed for the CaII IR line at 8542 ang. It is generally accepted that EBs may be considered as compact microflares located in lower solar atmosphere. However, it is still not clear where exactly the emission of EBs is formed in the solar atmosphere. High-resolution spectrophotometric observations of EBs were used for determining of their physical parameters and construction of semi-empirical models. In our analysis we used observations of EBs obtained in the H-alpha and CaII H lines. We also used NLTE numerical codes for the construction of grids of 243 semi-empirical models simulating EBs structures. In this way, the observed emission could be compared with th...

  6. Trans-Pacific dust events observed at Whistler, British Columbia during INTEX-B

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. G. McKendry

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available The meteorology and physico-chemical characteristics of aerosol associated with two new cases of long range dust transport affecting western Canada during spring 2006 are described. Each event showed enhancements of both sulfate aerosol and crustal material of Asian origin. However, the events were of quite different character and demonstrate the highly variable nature of such events. The April event was a significant dust event with moderate sulfate enhancement while the May event was a weak dust event with very significant sulfate enhancement. The latter event was interesting in the sense that it was of short duration and was quickly followed by significant enhancement of organic material likely of regional origin. Comparison of these two events with other documented cases extending back to 1993, suggests that all dust events show coincident enhancements of sulfate and crustal aerosol. However, events vary across a wide continuum based on the magnitude of aerosol enhancements and their sulfate to calcium ratios. At one extreme, events are dominated by highly significant crustal enhancements (e.g. the well-documented 1998 and 2001 "dust" events while at the other are events with some dust transport, but where sulfate enhancements are of very high magnitude (e.g. the 1993 event at Crater Lake and the 15 May 2006 event at Whistler. Other events represent a "mix". It is likely that this variability is a function of the comparative strengths of the dust and anthropogenic SO2 sources, the transport pathway and in particular the extent to which dust is transported across industrial SO2 sources, and finally, meteorological and chemical processes.

  7. The number distribution of weak Explosive Events observed by SUMER/SoHO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mendoza-Torres, J. E.

    2016-11-01

    Explosive Events (EEs) observed by SUMER on SoHO at the 1393.8 Å Si IV line are analyzed. We look for EEs to study their number distribution at low energies. Eight data sets taken in June 1996 in raster observations are used. In these observations a field on the solar disk is scanned several times during a period considerably longer than the typical timelife of an EE. To look for EE, we first identified the maxima and locations of spectral line increases. The maxima that took place at inner locations of the rastered fields were considered as possible EEs. From this sample, the cases where the spectral line underwent Doppler shifts at most ±3″ from the location of the maximum were considered EEs. After a selection, the region within 5″ of the event was ignored for 5 min either side of the EE in order to conclusively select a different maxima. Based on the analysis of the locations of EEs, it was seen that the more intense EEs tend to take place at given regions while at the intermediate regions the observed EEs are less intense. Therefore we refer to them as Regions of Enhanced Emission (REE) and Quiet Regions (QR), respectively. The width of the REE regions, as seen in North-South direction is about 10-30″. In this work, a total of 487 EEs are analyzed, 266 at REE and 221 at QR. Also, Histograms are made of the maxima of the amplitude of the spectral line during EEs at both REE and QR. At the Histogram for EEs at QR the number grows as the flux decreases with a slope of -1.8. For EEs at REE the Histogram has a maximum about 1 Watts m-2 sr-1 Å-1 with a high energy slope of about -1.6. These numbers are both below the value required to give an important input of energy for coronal heating, as analyzed in the case of microflares (Hudson, 1991). The averages of the maxima of EEs at each set for the REE and QR are computed. The scatter plot of the average values indicates that there is a linear relation between them and the maximum amplitudes of EEs at REE are

  8. Supporting observation campaigns with high resolution modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klocke, Daniel; Brueck, Matthias; Voigt, Aiko

    2017-04-01

    High resolution simulation in support of measurement campaigns offers a promising and emerging way to create large-scale context for small-scale observations of clouds and precipitation processes. As these simulation include the coupling of measured small-scale processes with the circulation, they also help to integrate the research communities from modeling and observations and allow for detailed model evaluations against dedicated observations. In connection with the measurement campaign NARVAL (August 2016 and December 2013) simulations with a grid-spacing of 2.5 km for the tropical Atlantic region (9000x3300 km), with local refinement to 1.2 km for the western part of the domain, were performed using the icosahedral non-hydrostatic (ICON) general circulation model. These simulations are again used to drive large eddy resolving simulations with the same model for selected days in the high definition clouds and precipitation for advancing climate prediction (HD(CP)2) project. The simulations are presented with the focus on selected results showing the benefit for the scientific communities doing atmospheric measurements and numerical modeling of climate and weather. Additionally, an outlook will be given on how similar simulations will support the NAWDEX measurement campaign in the North Atlantic and AC3 measurement campaign in the Arctic.

  9. High-cadence observations of spicular-type events on the Sun

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shetye, J.; Doyle, J. G.; Scullion, E.; Nelson, C. J.; Kuridze, D.; Henriques, V.; Woeger, F.; Ray, T.

    2016-05-01

    Context. Chromospheric observations taken at high-cadence and high-spatial resolution show a range of spicule-like features, including Type-I, Type-II (as well as rapid blue-shifted excursions (RBEs) and rapid red-shifted excursions (RREs) which are thought to be on-disk counterparts of Type-II spicules) and those which seem to appear within a few seconds, which if interpreted as flows would imply mass flow velocities in excess of 1000 km s-1. Aims: This article seeks to quantify and study rapidly appearing spicular-type events. We also compare the multi-object multi-frame blind deconvolution (MOMFBD) and speckle reconstruction techniques to understand if these spicules are more favourably observed using a particular technique. Methods: We use spectral imaging observations taken with the CRisp Imaging SpectroPolarimeter (CRISP) on the Swedish 1-m Solar Telescope. Data was sampled at multiple positions within the Hα line profile for both an on-disk and limb location. Results: The data is host to numerous rapidly appearing features which are observed at different locations within the Hα line profile. The feature's durations vary between 10-20 s and lengths around 3500 km. Sometimes, a time delay in their appearance between the blue and red wings of 3-5 s is evident, whereas, sometimes they are near simultaneous. In some instances, features are observed to fade and then re-emerge at the same location several tens of seconds later. Conclusions: We provide the first statistical analysis of these spicules and suggest that these observations can be interpreted as the line-of-sight (LOS) movement of highly dynamic spicules moving in and out of the narrow 60 mÅ transmission filter that is used to observe in different parts of the Hα line profile. The LOS velocity component of the observed fast chromospheric features, manifested as Doppler shifts, are responsible for their appearance in the red and blue wings of Hα line. Additional work involving data at other

  10. Modelling of aircrew radiation exposure during solar particle events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al Anid, Hani Khaled

    show a very different response during anisotropic events, leading to variations in aircrew radiation doses that may be significant for dose assessment. To estimate the additional exposure due to solar flares, a model was developed using a Monte-Carlo radiation transport code, MCNPX. The model transports an extrapolated particle spectrum based on satellite measurements through the atmosphere using the MCNPX analysis. This code produces the estimated flux at a specific altitude where radiation dose conversion coefficients are applied to convert the particle flux into effective and ambient dose-equivalent rates. A cut-off rigidity model accounts for the shielding effects of the Earth's magnetic field. Comparisons were made between the model predictions and actual flight measurements taken with various types of instruments used to measure the mixed radiation field during Ground Level Enhancements 60 and 65. An anisotropy analysis that uses neutron monitor responses and the pitch angle distribution of energetic solar particles was used to identify particle anisotropy for a solar event in December 2006. In anticipation of future commercial use, a computer code has been developed to implement the radiation dose assessment model for routine analysis. Keywords: Radiation Dosimetry, Radiation Protection, Space Physics.

  11. Modeling Pluto-Charon mutual eclipse events. I. First-order models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dunbar, R.S.; Tedesco, E.F.

    1986-11-01

    The present first order analytical and numerical models of light curves due to mutual events between close planetary binaries, the effects of shadowing are included. Attention is given to the case of the Pluto-Charon system. The results of the analytical and numerical approaches agree to well within the expected light curve measurement error. The model predicts that the current mutual eclipse event series will end by November 1990. 12 references.

  12. Model based monitoring of wellbore hydraulics for abnormal event detection

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Todorov, Dimitar; Fruhwirth, Rudolf K. [Thonhauser Data Engineering GmbH, Leoben (Austria); Thonhauser, Gerhard [Montanuniversitaet Leoben (Austria)

    2013-03-15

    With the increasing demand for energy in the last decades, the petroleum industry was forced to push the limits to levels that have never been reached before. Exploring very deep waters, drilling under varying conditions of extreme pressure and temperature and dealing with issues, which involve a new level of understanding, are challenges, which need to be overcome in order to safely and successfully accomplish the planned goals. Operating under such circumstances obligates the driller to be extremely precise in his actions. Even with the driller's extensive experience and training, the possible reaction time is in some cases extremely short. This article discusses the reasons for automatic trouble event recognition systems in the drilling process and how these affect the drilling operations and optimization processes. In this respect a concept of a real time hydraulic monitor will be developed helping the driller to visualize calculations in a plot, showing the pump limitations, the limitations due to the formation fracture gradient and the hole cleaning requirements. Additionally, taking into account the complete wellbore hydraulics and introducing various well behavior models and different algorithms, the system is capable of operating as a real-time indicator for undesired downhole events. (orig.)

  13. Transition Region and Chromospheric Signatures of Impulsive Heating Events. II. Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reep, Jeffrey W.; Warren, Harry P.; Crump, Nicholas A.; Simões, Paulo J. A.

    2016-08-01

    Results from the Solar Maximum Mission showed a close connection between the hard X-ray (HXR) and transition region (TR) emission in solar flares. Analogously, the modern combination of RHESSI and IRIS data can inform the details of heating processes in ways that were never before possible. We study a small event that was observed with RHESSI, IRIS, SDO, and Hinode, allowing us to strongly constrain the heating and hydrodynamical properties of the flare, with detailed observations presented in a previous paper. Long duration redshifts of TR lines observed in this event, as well as many other events, are fundamentally incompatible with chromospheric condensation on a single loop. We combine RHESSI and IRIS data to measure the energy partition among the many magnetic strands that comprise the flare. Using that observationally determined energy partition, we show that a proper multithreaded model can reproduce these redshifts in magnitude, duration, and line intensity, while simultaneously being well constrained by the observed density, temperature, and emission measure. We comment on the implications for both RHESSI and IRIS observations of flares in general, namely that: (1) a single loop model is inconsistent with long duration redshifts, among other observables; (2) the average time between energization of strands is less than 10 s, which implies that for a HXR burst lasting 10 minutes, there were at least 60 strands within a single IRIS pixel located on the flare ribbon; (3) the majority of these strands were explosively heated with an energy distribution well described by a power law of slope ≈ -1.6; (4) the multi-stranded model reproduces the observed line profiles, peak temperatures, differential emission measure distributions, and densities.

  14. Numerical Modeling of the Severe Cold Weather Event over Central Europe (January 2006

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Hari Prasad

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Cold waves commonly occur in higher latitudes under prevailing high pressure systems especially during winter season which cause serious economical loss and cold related death. Accurate prediction of such severe weather events is important for decision making by administrators and for mitigation planning. An Advanced high resolution Weather Research and Forecasting mesoscale model is used to simulate a severe cold wave event occurred during January 2006 over Europe. The model is integrated for 31 days starting from 00UTC of 1 January 2006 with 30 km horizontal resolution. Comparison of the model derived area averaged daily mean temperatures at 2m height from different zones over the central Europe with observations indicates that the model is able to simulate the occurrence of the cold wave with the observed time lag of 1 to 3days but with lesser intensity. The temperature, winds, surface pressure and the geopential heights at 500 hPa reveal that the cold wave development associates with the southward progression of a high pressure system and cold air advection. The results have good agreement with the analysis fields indicates that the model has the ability to reproduce the time evolution of the cold wave event.

  15. Adjoint inversion modeling of Asian dust emission using lidar observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Yumimoto

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available A four-dimensional variational (4D-Var data assimilation system for a regional dust model (RAMS/CFORS-4DVAR; RC4 is applied to an adjoint inversion of a heavy dust event over eastern Asia during 20 March–4 April 2007. The vertical profiles of the dust extinction coefficients derived from NIES Lidar network are directly assimilated, with validation using observation data. Two experiments assess impacts of observation site selection: Experiment A uses five Japanese observation sites located downwind of dust source regions; Experiment B uses these and two other sites near source regions. Assimilation improves the modeled dust extinction coefficients. Experiment A and Experiment B assimilation results are mutually consistent, indicating that observations of Experiment A distributed over Japan can provide comprehensive information related to dust emission inversion. Time series data of dust AOT calculated using modeled and Lidar dust extinction coefficients improve the model results. At Seoul, Matsue, and Toyama, assimilation reduces the root mean square differences of dust AOT by 35–40%. However, at Beijing and Tsukuba, the RMS differences degrade because of fewer observations during the heavy dust event. Vertical profiles of the dust layer observed by CALIPSO are compared with assimilation results. The dense dust layer was trapped at potential temperatures (θ of 280–300 K and was higher toward the north; the model reproduces those characteristics well. Latitudinal distributions of modeled dust AOT along the CALIPSO orbit paths agree well with those of CALIPSO dust AOT, OMI AI, and MODIS coarse-mode AOT, capturing the latitude at which AOTs and AI have high values. Assimilation results show increased dust emissions over the Gobi Desert and Mongolia; especially for 29–30 March, emission flux is about 10 times greater. Strong dust uplift fluxes over the Gobi Desert and Mongolia cause the heavy dust event. Total optimized dust emissions are 57

  16. Event attribution using data assimilation in an intermediate complexity atmospheric model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Metref, Sammy; Hannart, Alexis; Ruiz, Juan; Carrassi, Alberto; Bocquet, Marc; Ghil, Michael

    2016-04-01

    A new approach, coined DADA (Data Assimilation for Detection and Attribution) has been recently introduced by Hannart et al. 2015, and is potentially useful for near real time, systematic causal attribution of weather and climate-related events The method is purposely designed to allow its operability at meteorological centers by synergizing causal attribution with Data Assimilation (DA) methods usually designed to deal with large nonlinear models. In Hannart et al. 2015, the DADA proposal is illustrated in the context of a low-order nonlinear model (forced three-variable Lorenz model) that is of course not realistic to represent the events considered. As a continuation of this stream of work, we therefore propose an implementation of the DADA approach in a realistic intermediate complexity atmospheric model (ICTP AGCM, nicknamed SPEEDY). The SPEEDY model is based on a spectral dynamical core developed at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (see Held and Suarez 1994). It is a hydrostatic, r-coordinate, spectral-transform model in the vorticity-divergence form described by Bourke (1974). A synthetic dataset of observations of an extreme precipitation event over Southeastern South America is extracted from a long SPEEDY simulation under present climatic conditions (i.e. factual conditions). Then, following the DADA approach, observations of this event are assimilated twice in the SPEEDY model: first in the factual configuration of the model and second under its counterfactual, pre-industrial configuration. We show that attribution can be performed based on the likelihood ratio as in Hannart et al. 2015, but we further extend this result by showing that the likelihood can be split in space, time and variables in order to help identify the specific physical features of the event that bear the causal signature. References: Hannart A., A. Carrassi, M. Bocquet, M. Ghil, P. Naveau, M. Pulido, J. Ruiz, P. Tandeo (2015) DADA: Data assimilation for the detection and

  17. Real-time observations of stressful events in the operating room

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    AlNassar Sami

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Aim: To identify and quantify factors causing stress in the operating room (OR and evaluate the relationship between these factors and surgeons′ stress level. Methods: This is a prospective observational study from 32 elective surgical procedures conducted in the OR of King Khalid University Hospital, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. Before each operation, each surgeon was asked of stressors. Two interns observed 16 surgeries each, separately. The interns watched and took notes during the entire surgical procedure. During each operation, the observer recorded anxiety-inducing activities and events that occurred in real time by means of a checklist of 8 potential stressors: technical, patient problems, teamwork problems, time and management issues, distractions and interruptions, equipment problems, personal problems, and teaching. After each operation, surgeons were asked to answer the validated State-Trait Anxiety Inventory questionnaire and self-report on their stress level from the 8 sources using a scale of 1-8 (1: stress free, 8: extremely stressful. The observer also recorded perceived stress levels experienced by the surgeons during the operation. Results: One hundred ten stressors were identified. Technical problems most frequently caused stress (16.4% and personal issues the least often (6.4%. Frequently encountered stressors (teaching and distractions/interruptions caused less stress to the surgeons. Technical factors, teamwork, and equipment problems occurred frequently and were also a major contributor to OR stress. All patients were discharged in good health and within 1 week of surgery. Conclusion: Certain stressful factors do occur among surgeons in the OR and can increase the potential for errors. Further research is required to determine the impact of stress on performance and the outcome of surgery.

  18. Real-time observations of stressful events in the operating room.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sami, Alnassar; Waseem, Hajjar; Nourah, Alsubaie; Areej, Alhummaid; Afnan, Almarshedi; Ghadeer, Al-Shaikh; Abdulaziz, Alsaif; Arthur, Isnani

    2012-04-01

    To identify and quantify factors causing stress in the operating room (OR) and evaluate the relationship between these factors and surgeons' stress level. This is a prospective observational study from 32 elective surgical procedures conducted in the OR of King Khalid University Hospital, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. Before each operation, each surgeon was asked of stressors. Two interns observed 16 surgeries each, separately. The interns watched and took notes during the entire surgical procedure. During each operation, the observer recorded anxiety-inducing activities and events that occurred in real time by means of a checklist of 8 potential stressors: technical, patient problems, teamwork problems, time and management issues, distractions and interruptions, equipment problems, personal problems, and teaching. After each operation, surgeons were asked to answer the validated State-Trait Anxiety Inventory questionnaire and self-report on their stress level from the 8 sources using a scale of 1-8 (1: stress free, 8: extremely stressful). The observer also recorded perceived stress levels experienced by the surgeons during the operation. One hundred ten stressors were identified. Technical problems most frequently caused stress (16.4%) and personal issues the least often (6.4%). Frequently encountered stressors (teaching and distractions/interruptions) caused less stress to the surgeons. Technical factors, teamwork, and equipment problems occurred frequently and were also a major contributor to OR stress. All patients were discharged in good health and within 1 week of surgery. Certain stressful factors do occur among surgeons in the OR and can increase the potential for errors. Further research is required to determine the impact of stress on performance and the outcome of surgery.

  19. Dynamics of the MAP IOP 15 severe Mistral event: Observations and high-resolution numerical simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guénard, V.; Drobinski, P.; Caccia, J. L.; Tedeschi, G.; Currier, P.

    2006-04-01

    This paper investigates the fundamental processes involved in a severe Mistral event that occurred during the Mesoscale Alpine Program (from 6 to 9 November 1999). The Mistral refers to a violent north/north-westerly wind blowing in south-eastern France from the Rhône valley to the French Riviera. The study is based on measurements from radiosoundings launched from Lyon and Nîmes and from two UHF wind profilers located near Marseille and Toulon allowing a good description of the flow in the complex terrain formed by the south-western Alps. Observational results are compared with RAMS non-hydrostatic numerical simulations performed with 27 km, 9 km and 3 km nested grids. The numerical simulations capture the flow complexity both upstream of the Alps and in the coastal area affected by the Mistral. They correctly reproduce horizontal wind speeds and directions, vertical velocities, virtual potential temperature and relative humidity documented by the observational network. The simulations are used to point out the main dynamical processes generating the Mistral. It is found that flow splitting around the Alps and around the isolated peaks bordering the south-eastern part of the Rhône valley (Mont Ventoux 1909 m, Massif du Lubéron 1425 m) induces the low-level jet observed near Marseille that lasts for 36 hours. The high-resolution simulation indicates that the transient low-level jet lasting for only 9 hours observed at Toulon is due to a gravity wave breaking over local topography (the Sainte Baume 1147 m) where hydraulic jumps are involved. A mountain wake with two opposite-sign potential-vorticity banners is generated. The mesoscale wake explains the westward progression of the large-scale Alpine wake.

  20. Use of Earth Observation in Support of Major Sport Events: The Post Games Assessment of the Sporting Events of the Olympic Games 2004

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asimakopoulos, D.; Cartalis, C.; Petrakis, M.; Adaktylou, N.; Stathopoulou, M.; Chrysoulakis, N.

    2013-01-01

    Major sport events may result in the modification of the urban environment, or may be used as a tool for urban planning and/or urban regeneration projects. To this end, the main objective of the DRAGON-2 Project 5295 was to support the planning needs of major sport events with the use of Earth Observation (EO). The project also focused on the post games assessment of sporting events, with application to the Olympic Games (OG) of 2004 and 2008. More specifically, the research that was contacted in the project’s lifecycle was to examine how a major sporting event affected the urban fabric and the urban environmental quality in both Athens and Beijing. A wide number of thematic areas such as land use and cover, urban microclimate, urban green and air quality were examined and specific indicators for each thematic area were evaluated. Special emphasis was given on the description of thermal comfort, as well as on the changes in the quality of life in the host cities prior and following to the organization of the sporting events. A synopsis of the research results of the period 2008 - 2011 is given in this study along with an assessment of the potential of EO to actually support sport events.

  1. Linking Geomechanical Models with Observations of Microseismicity during CCS Operations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verdon, J.; Kendall, J.; White, D.

    2012-12-01

    During CO2 injection for the purposes of carbon capture and storage (CCS), injection-induced fracturing of the overburden represents a key risk to storage integrity. Fractures in a caprock provide a pathway along which buoyant CO2 can rise and escape the storage zone. Therefore the ability to link field-scale geomechanical models with field geophysical observations is of paramount importance to guarantee secure CO2 storage. Accurate location of microseismic events identifies where brittle failure has occurred on fracture planes. This is a manifestation of the deformation induced by CO2 injection. As the pore pressure is increased during injection, effective stress is decreased, leading to inflation of the reservoir and deformation of surrounding rocks, which creates microseismicity. The deformation induced by injection can be simulated using finite-element mechanical models. Such a model can be used to predict when and where microseismicity is expected to occur. However, typical elements in a field scale mechanical models have decameter scales, while the rupture size for microseismic events are typically of the order of 1 square meter. This means that mapping modeled stress changes to predictions of microseismic activity can be challenging. Where larger scale faults have been identified, they can be included explicitly in the geomechanical model. Where movement is simulated along these discrete features, it can be assumed that microseismicity will occur. However, microseismic events typically occur on fracture networks that are too small to be simulated explicitly in a field-scale model. Therefore, the likelihood of microseismicity occurring must be estimated within a finite element that does not contain explicitly modeled discontinuities. This can be done in a number of ways, including the utilization of measures such as closeness on the stress state to predetermined failure criteria, either for planes with a defined orientation (the Mohr-Coulomb criteria) for

  2. Modeling Complex Treatment Strategies : Construction and Validation of a Discrete Event Simulation Model for Glaucoma

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Gestel, Aukje; Severens, Johan L.; Webers, Carroll A. B.; Beckers, Henny J. M.; Jansonius, Nomdo M.; Schouten, Jan S. A. G.

    2010-01-01

    Objective: Discrete event simulation (DES) modeling has several advantages over simpler modeling techniques in health economics, such as increased flexibility and the ability to model complex systems. Nevertheless, these benefits may come at the cost of reduced transparency, which may compromise the

  3. A Bayesian Model for Event-based Trust

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Mogens; Krukow, Karl; Sassone, Vladimiro

    2007-01-01

    relationships, i.e., via systems for computational trust. We focus here on systems where trust in a computational entity is interpreted as the expectation of certain future behaviour based on behavioural patterns of the past, and concern ourselves with the foundations of such probabilistic systems....... In particular, we aim at establishing formal probabilistic models for computational trust and their fundamental properties. In the paper we define a mathematical measure for quantitatively comparing the effectiveness of probabilistic computational trust systems in various environments. Using it, we compare some...... of the systems from the computational trust literature; the comparison is derived formally, rather than obtained via experimental simulation as traditionally done. With this foundation in place, we formalise a general notion of information about past behaviour, based on event structures. This yields a flexible...

  4. Brightening of onset arc precedes the dipolarization onset: THEMIS observations of two events on 1 March 2008

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kan, J. R.; Li, H.; Wang, C.; Frey, H. U.; Kubyshkina, M. V.; Runov, A.; Xiao, C. J.; Lyu, L. H.; Sun, W.

    2011-11-01

    We present a new M-I coupling model of substorm during southward IMF based on the THEMIS observations of two events on 1 March 2008. The first event (E-1) was classified as a pseudo-breakup: brightening of the onset arc preceded the first dipolarization onset by ∼71 ± 3 s, but the breakup arcs faded within ∼5 min without substantial poleward expansion and the dipolarization stopped and reversed to thinning. The second event (E-2) was identified as a substorm: brightening of the second onset arc preceded the second dipolarization onset by ∼80 ± 3 s, leading to a full-scale expanding auroral bulge during the substorm expansion phase for ∼20 min. The Alfvén travel time from the ionosphere to the dipolarization onset region is estimated at ∼69.3 s in E-1; at ∼80.3 s in E-2, which matched well with the observed time delay of the dipolarization onset after the brightening of the onset arc, respectively in E-1 and E-2. Brightening of the onset arc precedes the dipolarization onset suggest that the onset arc brightening is caused by the intense upward field-aligned currents originating from the divergence of the Cowling electrojet in the ionosphere. The Cowling electrojet current loop (CECL) is formed to close the field-aligned currents at all times. The closure current in the Alfvén wavefront is anti-parallel to the cross-tail current. Dipolarization onset occurs when the Alfvén wavefront incident on the near-Earth plasma sheet to disrupt the cross-tail current in the dipolarization region. Slow MHD waves dominate the disruption of the cross-tail current in the dipolarization region.

  5. Brightening of onset arc precedes the dipolarization onset: THEMIS observations of two events on 1 March 2008

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. R. Kan

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available We present a new M-I coupling model of substorm during southward IMF based on the THEMIS observations of two events on 1 March 2008. The first event (E-1 was classified as a pseudo-breakup: brightening of the onset arc preceded the first dipolarization onset by ∼71 ± 3 s, but the breakup arcs faded within ∼5 min without substantial poleward expansion and the dipolarization stopped and reversed to thinning. The second event (E-2 was identified as a substorm: brightening of the second onset arc preceded the second dipolarization onset by ∼80 ± 3 s, leading to a full-scale expanding auroral bulge during the substorm expansion phase for ∼20 min. The Alfvén travel time from the ionosphere to the dipolarization onset region is estimated at ∼69.3 s in E-1; at ∼80.3 s in E-2, which matched well with the observed time delay of the dipolarization onset after the brightening of the onset arc, respectively in E-1 and E-2. Brightening of the onset arc precedes the dipolarization onset suggest that the onset arc brightening is caused by the intense upward field-aligned currents originating from the divergence of the Cowling electrojet in the ionosphere. The Cowling electrojet current loop (CECL is formed to close the field-aligned currents at all times. The closure current in the Alfvén wavefront is anti-parallel to the cross-tail current. Dipolarization onset occurs when the Alfvén wavefront incident on the near-Earth plasma sheet to disrupt the cross-tail current in the dipolarization region. Slow MHD waves dominate the disruption of the cross-tail current in the dipolarization region.

  6. An agent-based approach to modelling the effects of extreme events on global food prices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schewe, Jacob; Otto, Christian; Frieler, Katja

    2015-04-01

    Extreme climate events such as droughts or heat waves affect agricultural production in major food producing regions and therefore can influence the price of staple foods on the world market. There is evidence that recent dramatic spikes in grain prices were at least partly triggered by actual and/or expected supply shortages. The reaction of the market to supply changes is however highly nonlinear and depends on complex and interlinked processes such as warehousing, speculation, and export restrictions. Here we present for the first time an agent-based modelling framework that accounts, in simplified terms, for these processes and allows to estimate the reaction of world food prices to supply shocks on a short (monthly) timescale. We test the basic model using observed historical supply, demand, and price data of wheat as a major food grain. Further, we illustrate how the model can be used in conjunction with biophysical crop models to assess the effect of future changes in extreme event regimes on the volatility of food prices. In particular, the explicit representation of storage dynamics makes it possible to investigate the potentially nonlinear interaction between simultaneous extreme events in different food producing regions, or between several consecutive events in the same region, which may both occur more frequently under future global warming.

  7. Placing Observational Constraints on Massive Star Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenfield, Philip

    2011-10-01

    The lives and deaths of massive stars are intricately linked to the evolution of galaxies. Yet, despite their integral importance to understanding galaxy evolution, models of massive stars are inconsistent with observations. These uncertainties can be traced to limited observational constraints available for improving massive star models. A sensitive test of the underlying physics of massive stars, e.g., convection, rotation, and mass loss is to measure the ratio of blue core helium burning stars {BHeB} to red core helium burning stars {RHeB}, 5-20Msun stars in the stage evolution immediately following the main sequence. Even the most sophisticated models cannot accurately predict the observed ratio over a range of metallicities, suggesting an insufficient understanding of the underlying physics. However, observational measurements of this ratio over a wide range of environments would provide substantial constraints on the physical parameters governing the evolution of all stars >5 Msun.We propose to place stringent observational constraints on the physics of massive star evolution by uniformly measuring the B/R HeB ratio in a wide range of galaxies. The HST archive contains high quality optical imaging of resolved stellar populations of dozens of nearby galaxies. From the ANGST program, we identified 38 galaxies, spanning 2 dex in metallicity that have significant BHeB and RHeB populations. Using this sample, we will empirically characterize the colors of the BHeB and RHeB sequences as a function of luminosity and metallicity, measure the B/R ratio, and constrain the lifetimes of the BHeB and RHeBs in the Padova stellar evolution models and the Cambridge STARS code.

  8. Constraining Numerical Geodynamo Modeling with Surface Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuang, Weijia; Tangborn, Andrew

    2006-01-01

    Numerical dynamo solutions have traditionally been generated entirely by a set of self-consistent differential equations that govern the spatial-temporal variation of the magnetic field, velocity field and other fields related to dynamo processes. In particular, those solutions are obtained with parameters very different from those appropriate for the Earth s core. Geophysical application of the numerical results therefore depends on correct understanding of the differences (errors) between the model outputs and the true states (truth) in the outer core. Part of the truth can be observed at the surface in the form of poloidal magnetic field. To understand these differences, or errors, we generate new initial model state (analysis) by assimilating sequentially the model outputs with the surface geomagnetic observations using an optimal interpolation scheme. The time evolution of the core state is then controlled by our MoSST core dynamics model. The final outputs (forecasts) are then compared with the surface observations as a means to test the success of the assimilation. We use the surface geomagnetic data back to year 1900 for our studies, with 5-year forecast and 20-year analysis periods. We intend to use the result; to understand time variation of the errors with the assimilation sequences, and the impact of the assimilation on other unobservable quantities, such as the toroidal field and the fluid velocity in the core.

  9. Evidence of standing waves during a Pi2 pulsation event observed on Cluster

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. B. Collier

    2006-10-01

    Full Text Available Observations of Pi2 pulsations at middle and low latitudes have been explained in terms of cavity mode resonances, whereas transients associated with field-aligned currents appear to be responsible for the high latitude Pi2 signature.

    Data from Cluster are used to study a Pi2 event observed at 18:09 UTC on 21 January 2003, when three of the satellites were within the plasmasphere (L=4.7, 4.5 and 4.6 while the fourth was on the plasmapause or in the plasmatrough (L=6.6. Simultaneous pulsations at ground observatories and the injection of particles at geosynchronous orbit corroborate the occurrence of a substorm.

    Evidence of a cavity mode resonance is established by considering the phase relationship between the orthogonal electric and magnetic field components associated with radial and field-aligned standing waves. The relative phase between satellites located on either side of the geomagnetic equator indicates that the field-aligned oscillation is an odd harmonic. Finite azimuthal Poynting flux suggests that the cavity is effectively open ended and the azimuthal wave number is estimated as m~13.5.

  10. Radio observations of the tidal disruption event XMMSL1 J0740$-$85

    CERN Document Server

    Alexander, Kate D; Berger, Edo; Saxton, Richard D; Komossa, Stefanie

    2016-01-01

    We present radio observations of the tidal disruption event candidate (TDE) XMMSL1 J0740$-$85 spanning 592 to 875 d post X-ray discovery. We detect radio emission that fades from an initial peak flux density at 1.6 GHz of $1.19\\pm 0.06$ mJy to $0.65\\pm 0.06$ mJy suggesting an association with the TDE. This makes XMMSL1 J0740$-$85 at $d=75$ Mpc the nearest TDE with detected radio emission to date and only the fifth TDE with radio emission overall. The observed radio luminosity rules out a powerful relativistic jet like that seen in the relativistic TDE Swift J1644+57. Instead we infer from an equipartition analysis that the radio emission most likely arises from a non-relativistic outflow similar to that seen in the nearby TDE ASASSN-14li, with a velocity of about $10^4$ km s$^{-1}$ and a kinetic energy of about $10^{48}$ erg, expanding into a medium with a density of about $10^2$ cm$^{-3}$. Alternatively, the radio emission could arise from a weak initially-relativistic but decelerated jet with an energy of $...

  11. Magnetic upflow events in the quiet-Sun photosphere. I. Observations

    CERN Document Server

    Jafarzadeh, S; Rodriguez, J de la Cruz

    2015-01-01

    Rapid magnetic upflows in the quiet-Sun photosphere were recently uncovered from both SUNRISE/IMaX and Hinode/SOT observations. Here, we study magnetic upflow events (MUEs) from high-quality, high (spatial, temporal, and spectral) resolution, and full Stokes observations in four photospheric magnetically sensitive Fe I lines centered at 525.021 nm, 617.334 nm, 630.151 nm, and 630.250 nm acquired with SST/CRISP. We detect MUEs by subtracting in-line Stokes V signals from those in far-blue-wing whose signal-to-noise ratio >= 7. We find a larger number of MUEs at any given time (0.02 per square arcsec), larger by one to two orders of magnitude, than previously reported. The MUEs appear to fall into four classes presenting different shapes of Stokes V profiles with (I) asymmetric double lobes, (II) single lobes, (III) double-humped (two same-polarity lobes), and (IV) three lobes (extra blue-shifted bump in addition to a double-lobes), from which, only less than half of them are single-lobed. We also find that MUE...

  12. EVENT-DRIVEN SIMULATION OF INTEGRATE-AND-FIRE MODELS WITH SPIKE-FREQUENCY ADAPTATION

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Lin Xianghong; Zhang Tianwen

    2009-01-01

    The evoked spike discharges of a neuron depend critically on the recent history of its electrical activity. A well-known example is the phenomenon of spike-frequency adaptation that is a commonly observed property of neurons. In this paper, using a leaky integrate-and-fire model that includes an adaptation current, we propose an event-driven strategy to simulate integrate-and-fire models with spike-frequency adaptation. Such approach is more precise than traditional clock-driven numerical integration approach because the timing of spikes is treated exactly. In experiments, using event-driven and clock-driven strategies we simulated the adaptation time course of single neuron and the random network with spike-timing dependent plasticity, the results indicate that (1) the temporal precision of spiking events impacts on neuronal dynamics of single as well as network in the different simulation strategies and (2) the simulation time scales linearly with the total number of spiking events in the event-driven simulation strategies.

  13. Sequential Window Diagnoser for Discrete-Event Systems Under Unreliable Observations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wen-Chiao Lin; Humberto E. Garcia; David Thorsley; Tae-Sic Yoo

    2009-09-01

    This paper addresses the issue of counting the occurrence of special events in the framework of partiallyobserved discrete-event dynamical systems (DEDS). Developed diagnosers referred to as sequential window diagnosers (SWDs) utilize the stochastic diagnoser probability transition matrices developed in [9] along with a resetting mechanism that allows on-line monitoring of special event occurrences. To illustrate their performance, the SWDs are applied to detect and count the occurrence of special events in a particular DEDS. Results show that SWDs are able to accurately track the number of times special events occur.

  14. Hillslope soil erosion and runoff model for natural rainfall events

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zhanyu Zhang; Guohua Zhang; Changqing Zuo; Xiaoyu Pi

    2008-01-01

    By using the momentum theorem and water balance principle, basic equations of slope runoff were derived, soil erosion by raindrop splash and runoff were discussed and a model was established for decribing hillslope soil erosion processes. The numerical solution of the model was obtained by adopting the Preissmann format and considering the common solution-determining conditions, from which not only the runoff and soil erosion but also their processes can be described. The model was validated by ten groups of observation data of Soil Conservation Ecological Science and Technology Demonstration Park of Jiangxi Province. Comparisons show that the maximum relative error between simulation and experimental data is about 10.98% for total runoff and 15% for total erosion, 5.2% for runoff process and 6.1% for erosion process, indicating that the model is conceptually realistic and reliable and offers a feasible approach for further studies on the soil erosion process.

  15. Forecasting rain events - Meteorological models or collective intelligence?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arazy, Ofer; Halfon, Noam; Malkinson, Dan

    2015-04-01

    Collective intelligence is shared (or group) intelligence that emerges from the collective efforts of many individuals. Collective intelligence is the aggregate of individual contributions: from simple collective decision making to more sophisticated aggregations such as in crowdsourcing and peer-production systems. In particular, collective intelligence could be used in making predictions about future events, for example by using prediction markets to forecast election results, stock prices, or the outcomes of sport events. To date, there is little research regarding the use of collective intelligence for prediction of weather forecasting. The objective of this study is to investigate the extent to which collective intelligence could be utilized to accurately predict weather events, and in particular rainfall. Our analyses employ metrics of group intelligence, as well as compare the accuracy of groups' predictions against the predictions of the standard model used by the National Meteorological Services. We report on preliminary results from a study conducted over the 2013-2014 and 2014-2015 winters. We have built a web site that allows people to make predictions on precipitation levels on certain locations. During each competition participants were allowed to enter their precipitation forecasts (i.e. 'bets') at three locations and these locations changed between competitions. A precipitation competition was defined as a 48-96 hour period (depending on the expected weather conditions), bets were open 24-48 hours prior to the competition, and during betting period participants were allowed to change their bets with no limitation. In order to explore the effect of transparency, betting mechanisms varied across study's sites: full transparency (participants able to see each other's bets); partial transparency (participants see the group's average bet); and no transparency (no information of others' bets is made available). Several interesting findings emerged from

  16. Flux transfer event observation at Saturn's dayside magnetopause by the Cassini spacecraft

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jasinski, Jamie M.; Slavin, James A.; Arridge, Christopher S.; Poh, Gangkai; Jia, Xianzhe; Sergis, Nick; Coates, Andrew J.; Jones, Geraint H.; Waite, J. Hunter

    2016-07-01

    We present the first observation of a flux rope at Saturn's dayside magnetopause. This is an important result because it shows that the Saturnian magnetopause is conducive to multiple X-line reconnection and flux rope generation. Minimum variance analysis shows that the magnetic signature is consistent with a flux rope. The magnetic observations were well fitted to a constant-α force-free flux rope model. The radius and magnetic flux content of the rope are estimated to be 4600-8300 km and 0.2-0.8 MWb, respectively. Cassini also observed five traveling compression regions (remote signatures of flux ropes), in the adjacent magnetosphere. The magnetic flux content is compared to other estimates of flux opening via reconnection at Saturn.

  17. Coordinated Cluster/Double Star observations of dayside flux transfer events on 6 April 2004

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Jue; WANG XiaoGang; LIU ZhenXing; PU ZuYin; ZHOU XuZhi; ZHANG XianGuo; Malcom W. DUNLOP; FU SuiYan; XIE Lun; ZONG QiuGang; XIAO ChiJie

    2008-01-01

    With the Double Star Program TCl in the equatorial orbit and Cluster tetrahedron in the high latitude polar orbit, a conjunct observation of FTEs on the dayside magnetopause (MP) on April 6, 2004 is presented in this study. The FTEs observed by TC1 at low latitudes are characterized to be generated in the subeolar region and the obtained flux tube axes orientate along the predicted low latitude component magnetic reconnection X-line, indicating that these FTEa were more likely to be generated through multiple X-line reconnection or single X-line bursty reconnec-tion. During the same period, Cluster also encountered a series of magnetosheath FTEs with their axes pointing roughly along the interplanetary magnetic field. At last, the global FTE configuration is obtained from observations in different loca-tions, which is in good agreement with the "elbow shape" model.

  18. Coordinated Cluster/Double Star observations of dayside flux transfer events on 6 April 2004

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Malcom; W.; DUNLOP

    2008-01-01

    With the Double Star Program TC1 in the equatorial orbit and Cluster tetrahedron in the high latitude polar orbit, a conjunct observation of FTEs on the dayside magnetopause (MP) on April 6, 2004 is presented in this study. The FTEs observed by TC1 at low latitudes are characterized to be generated in the subsolar region and the obtained flux tube axes orientate along the predicted low latitude component magnetic reconnection X-line, indicating that these FTEs were more likely to be generated through multiple X-line reconnection or single X-line bursty reconnec-tion. During the same period, Cluster also encountered a series of magnetosheath FTEs with their axes pointing roughly along the interplanetary magnetic field. At last, the global FTE configuration is obtained from observations in different loca-tions, which is in good agreement with the "elbow shape" model.

  19. Controllability, Observability, and Stability of Mathematical Models

    OpenAIRE

    Iggidr, Abderrahman

    2004-01-01

    International audience; This article presents an overview of three fundamental concepts in Mathematical System Theory: controllability, stability and observability. These properties play a prominent role in the study of mathematical models and in the understanding of their behavior. They constitute the main research subject in Control Theory. Historically the tools and techniques of Automatic Control have been developed for artificial engineering systems but nowadays they are more and more ap...

  20. Evaluation of CNN as anthropomorphic model observer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Massanes, Francesc; Brankov, Jovan G.

    2017-03-01

    Model observers (MO) are widely used in medical imaging to act as surrogates of human observers in task-based image quality evaluation, frequently towards optimization of reconstruction algorithms. In this paper, we explore the use of convolutional neural networks (CNN) to be used as MO. We will compare CNN MO to alternative MO currently being proposed and used such as the relevance vector machine based MO and channelized Hotelling observer (CHO). As the success of the CNN, and other deep learning approaches, is rooted in large data sets availability, which is rarely the case in medical imaging systems task-performance evaluation, we will evaluate CNN performance on both large and small training data sets.

  1. Observation and modelling of urban dew

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richards, Katrina

    Despite its relevance to many aspects of urban climate and to several practical questions, urban dew has largely been ignored. Here, simple observations an out-of-doors scale model, and numerical simulation are used to investigate patterns of dewfall and surface moisture (dew + guttation) in urban environments. Observations and modelling were undertaken in Vancouver, B.C., primarily during the summers of 1993 and 1996. Surveys at several scales (0.02-25 km) show that the main controls on dew are weather, location and site configuration (geometry and surface materials). Weather effects are discussed using an empirical factor, FW . Maximum dew accumulation (up to ~ 0.2 mm per night) is seen on nights with moist air and high FW , i.e., cloudless conditions with light winds. Favoured sites are those with high Ysky and surfaces which cool rapidly after sunset, e.g., grass and well insulated roofs. A 1/8-scale model is designed, constructed, and run at an out-of-doors site to study dew patterns in an urban residential landscape which consists of house lots, a street and an open grassed park. The Internal Thermal Mass (ITM) approach is used to scale the thermal inertia of buildings. The model is validated using data from full-scale sites in Vancouver. Patterns in the model agree with those seen at the full-scale, i.e., dew distribution is governed by weather, site geometry and substrate conditions. Correlation is shown between Ysky and surface moisture accumulation. The feasibility of using a numerical model to simulate urban dew is investigated using a modified version of a rural dew model. Results for simple isolated surfaces-a deciduous tree leaf and an asphalt shingle roof-show promise, especially for built surfaces.

  2. Mesospheric observations with the EISCAT UHF radar during polar cap absorption events: 3. Comparison with simultaneous EISCAT VHF measurements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. T. Rietveld

    Full Text Available Mesospheric observations were obtained by the EISCAT UHF and VHF radars during the solar proton event of March 1990. We present the first comparison of incoherent-scatter spectral measurements from the middle mesosphere using simultaneous, co-located observations by the two radars. VHF spectra observed with a vertical antenna were found to be significantly narrower than model predictions, in agreement with earlier UHF results. For antenna pointing directions that were significantly away from the vertical, the wider VHF radar beam gave rise to broadening of the observed spectra due to vertical shears in the horizontal wind. In this configuration, UHF spectral measurements were found to be more suitable for aeronomical applications. Both radar systems provide consistent and reliable estimates of the neutral wind. Spectral results using both the multipulse and pulse-to-pulse schemes were intercompared and their suitability for application to combined mesosphere – lower thermosphere studies investigated.Key words. Mesophere · Lower thermosphere · EISCAT UHF radar · EISCAT VHF radar

  3. Automated Discovery and Modeling of Sequential Patterns Preceding Events of Interest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rohloff, Kurt

    2010-01-01

    The integration of emerging data manipulation technologies has enabled a paradigm shift in practitioners' abilities to understand and anticipate events of interest in complex systems. Example events of interest include outbreaks of socio-political violence in nation-states. Rather than relying on human-centric modeling efforts that are limited by the availability of SMEs, automated data processing technologies has enabled the development of innovative automated complex system modeling and predictive analysis technologies. We introduce one such emerging modeling technology - the sequential pattern methodology. We have applied the sequential pattern methodology to automatically identify patterns of observed behavior that precede outbreaks of socio-political violence such as riots, rebellions and coups in nation-states. The sequential pattern methodology is a groundbreaking approach to automated complex system model discovery because it generates easily interpretable patterns based on direct observations of sampled factor data for a deeper understanding of societal behaviors that is tolerant of observation noise and missing data. The discovered patterns are simple to interpret and mimic human's identifications of observed trends in temporal data. Discovered patterns also provide an automated forecasting ability: we discuss an example of using discovered patterns coupled with a rich data environment to forecast various types of socio-political violence in nation-states.

  4. Observational signatures of anisotropic inflationary models

    CERN Document Server

    Ohashi, Junko; Tsujikawa, Shinji

    2013-01-01

    We study observational signatures of two classes of anisotropic inflationary models in which an inflaton field couples to (i) a vector kinetic term F_{mu nu}F^{mu nu} and (ii) a two-form kinetic term H_{mu nu lambda}H^{mu nu lambda}. We compute the corrections from the anisotropic sources to the power spectrum of gravitational waves as well as the two-point cross correlation between scalar and tensor perturbations. The signs of the anisotropic parameter g_* are different depending on the vector and the two-form models, but the statistical anisotropies generally lead to a suppressed tensor-to-scalar ratio r and a smaller scalar spectral index n_s in both models. In the light of the recent Planck bounds of n_s and r, we place observational constraints on several different inflaton potentials such as those in chaotic and natural inflation in the presence of anisotropic interactions. In the two-form model we also find that there is no cross correlation between scalar and tensor perturbations, while in the vector ...

  5. Bayesian Statistical Inference in Ion-Channel Models with Exact Missed Event Correction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Epstein, Michael; Calderhead, Ben; Girolami, Mark A; Sivilotti, Lucia G

    2016-07-26

    The stochastic behavior of single ion channels is most often described as an aggregated continuous-time Markov process with discrete states. For ligand-gated channels each state can represent a different conformation of the channel protein or a different number of bound ligands. Single-channel recordings show only whether the channel is open or shut: states of equal conductance are aggregated, so transitions between them have to be inferred indirectly. The requirement to filter noise from the raw signal further complicates the modeling process, as it limits the time resolution of the data. The consequence of the reduced bandwidth is that openings or shuttings that are shorter than the resolution cannot be observed; these are known as missed events. Postulated models fitted using filtered data must therefore explicitly account for missed events to avoid bias in the estimation of rate parameters and therefore assess parameter identifiability accurately. In this article, we present the first, to our knowledge, Bayesian modeling of ion-channels with exact missed events correction. Bayesian analysis represents uncertain knowledge of the true value of model parameters by considering these parameters as random variables. This allows us to gain a full appreciation of parameter identifiability and uncertainty when estimating values for model parameters. However, Bayesian inference is particularly challenging in this context as the correction for missed events increases the computational complexity of the model likelihood. Nonetheless, we successfully implemented a two-step Markov chain Monte Carlo method that we called "BICME", which performs Bayesian inference in models of realistic complexity. The method is demonstrated on synthetic and real single-channel data from muscle nicotinic acetylcholine channels. We show that parameter uncertainty can be characterized more accurately than with maximum-likelihood methods. Our code for performing inference in these ion channel

  6. Influence of blocking effect of mountain and local front on two Asian-dust events observed at Mt. Haruna and Tsukuba in Kanto, Japan, in 2007

    Science.gov (United States)

    Inomata, Yayoi; Igarashi, Yasuhito; Naoe, Hiroaki; Takahashi, Hiroshi; Shimizu, Atsushi; Sugimoto, Nobuo; Tanaka, Taichu Y.

    2011-08-01

    Aerosol number concentrations were continuously measured at sites at Tsukuba and Mt. Haruna on the Kanto region of Japan by using optical particle counters (OPCs) from February to June 2007. Three specific dust events captured at the sites were analyzed by using lidar, backward trajectories, and model simulation in detail. The temporal variations in aerosol concentrations in the two Asian-dust events (K1 event: 31 March-3 April; K2 event: 25-28 May) were similar. Dust particles (≥2.0 μm in diameter) were transported in association with a synoptic-scale cold front, and they arrived at the Tsukuba site about 8 h after they were observed at the Mt. Haruna site, in association with the dissipation of a local front formed ahead of the cold front. However, the inflow patterns of dust particles differed between the K1 and K2 events. The K1 event flowed onto the Kanto Plain, detouring around the mountainous region, whereas the K2 event directly flowed across the mountains. The difference in inflow pattern was probably due to the blocking effects of the mountains and the formation of a stable layer near the surface. Preceding the dust plume arrival, an increase in the number concentration of small-aerosol particles (0.3-1.0 μm in diameter), which are considered to be spherical by lidar, was observed, but only at the Tsukuba site. This increase was possibly due to anthropogenic pollution transported over long distances from the continent and from domestic sources in the Kanto region. The third event was a local dust event, because it was observed only at the Tsukuba site (on 13 and 14 March) under dry conditions (10 m s -1).

  7. Implementation of the ATLAS Run 2 event data model

    CERN Document Server

    Buckley, Andrew; Elsing, Markus; Gillberg, Dag Ingemar; Koeneke, Karsten; Krasznahorkay, Attila; Moyse, Edward; Nowak, Marcin; Snyder, Scott; van Gemmeren, Peter

    2015-01-01

    During the 2013--2014 shutdown of the Large Hadron Collider, ATLAS switched to a new event data model for analysis, called the xAOD. A key feature of this model is the separation of the object data from the objects themselves (the `auxiliary store'). Rather being stored as member variables of the analysis classes, all object data are stored separately, as vectors of simple values. Thus, the data are stored in a `structure of arrays' format, while the user still can access it as an `array of structures'. This organization allows for on-demand partial reading of objects, the selective removal of object properties, and the addition of arbitrary user-defined properties in a uniform manner. It also improves performance by increasing the locality of memory references in typical analysis code. The resulting data structures can be written to ROOT files with data properties represented as simple ROOT tree branches. This talk will focus on the design and implementation of the auxiliary store and its interaction with RO...

  8. Smoothing spline ANOVA frailty model for recurrent event data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Du, Pang; Jiang, Yihua; Wang, Yuedong

    2011-12-01

    Gap time hazard estimation is of particular interest in recurrent event data. This article proposes a fully nonparametric approach for estimating the gap time hazard. Smoothing spline analysis of variance (ANOVA) decompositions are used to model the log gap time hazard as a joint function of gap time and covariates, and general frailty is introduced to account for between-subject heterogeneity and within-subject correlation. We estimate the nonparametric gap time hazard function and parameters in the frailty distribution using a combination of the Newton-Raphson procedure, the stochastic approximation algorithm (SAA), and the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method. The convergence of the algorithm is guaranteed by decreasing the step size of parameter update and/or increasing the MCMC sample size along iterations. Model selection procedure is also developed to identify negligible components in a functional ANOVA decomposition of the log gap time hazard. We evaluate the proposed methods with simulation studies and illustrate its use through the analysis of bladder tumor data.

  9. Observations and Modeling of Geospace Energetic Particles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Xinlin

    2016-07-01

    Comprehensive measurements of energetic particles and electric and magnetic fields from state-of-art instruments onboard Van Allen Probes, in a geo-transfer-like orbit, revealed new features of the energetic particles and the fields in the inner magnetosphere and impose new challenges to any quantitative modeling of the physical processes responsible for these observations. Concurrent measurements of energetic particles by satellites in highly inclined low Earth orbits and plasma and fields by satellites in farther distances in the magnetospheres and in the up stream solar wind are the critically needed information for quantitative modeling and for leading to eventual accurate forecast of the variations of the energetic particles in the magnetosphere. In this presentation, emphasis will be on the most recent advance in our understanding of the energetic particles in the magnetosphere and the missing links for significantly advance in our modeling and forecasting capabilities.

  10. Dark energy observational evidence and theoretical models

    CERN Document Server

    Novosyadlyj, B; Shtanov, Yu; Zhuk, A

    2013-01-01

    The book elucidates the current state of the dark energy problem and presents the results of the authors, who work in this area. It describes the observational evidence for the existence of dark energy, the methods and results of constraining of its parameters, modeling of dark energy by scalar fields, the space-times with extra spatial dimensions, especially Kaluza---Klein models, the braneworld models with a single extra dimension as well as the problems of positive definition of gravitational energy in General Relativity, energy conditions and consequences of their violation in the presence of dark energy. This monograph is intended for science professionals, educators and graduate students, specializing in general relativity, cosmology, field theory and particle physics.

  11. Coronal Fine Structure in Dynamic Events Observed by Hi-C

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winebarger, Amy; Schuler, Timothy

    2013-01-01

    The High-Resolution Coronal Imager (Hi-C) flew aboard a NASA sounding rocket on 2012 July 11 and captured roughly 345 s of high spatial and temporal resolution images of the solar corona in a narrowband 193 Angstrom channel. We have analyzed the fluctuations in intensity of Active Region 11520. We selected events based on a lifetime greater than 11 s (two Hi-C frames) and intensities greater than a threshold determined from the photon and readout noise. We compare the Hi-C events with those determined from AIA. We find that HI-C detects shorter and smaller events than AIA. We also find that the intensity increase in the Hi-C events is approx. 3 times greater than the intensity increase in the AIA events we conclude the events are related to linear sub-structure that is unresolved by AIA

  12. INTERVAL OBSERVER FOR A BIOLOGICAL REACTOR MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. A. Kharkovskaia

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available The method of an interval observer design for nonlinear systems with parametric uncertainties is considered. The interval observer synthesis problem for systems with varying parameters consists in the following. If there is the uncertainty restraint for the state values of the system, limiting the initial conditions of the system and the set of admissible values for the vector of unknown parameters and inputs, the interval existence condition for the estimations of the system state variables, containing the actual state at a given time, needs to be held valid over the whole considered time segment as well. Conditions of the interval observers design for the considered class of systems are shown. They are: limitation of the input and state, the existence of a majorizing function defining the uncertainty vector for the system, Lipschitz continuity or finiteness of this function, the existence of an observer gain with the suitable Lyapunov matrix. The main condition for design of such a device is cooperativity of the interval estimation error dynamics. An individual observer gain matrix selection problem is considered. In order to ensure the property of cooperativity for interval estimation error dynamics, a static transformation of coordinates is proposed. The proposed algorithm is demonstrated by computer modeling of the biological reactor. Possible applications of these interval estimation systems are the spheres of robust control, where the presence of various types of uncertainties in the system dynamics is assumed, biotechnology and environmental systems and processes, mechatronics and robotics, etc.

  13. Data driven clustering of rain events: microphysics information derived from macro scale observations

    OpenAIRE

    Dilmi, Mohamed Djallel; Mallet, Cécile; Barthes, Laurent; Chazottes, Aymeric

    2016-01-01

    The study of rain time series records is mainly carried out using rainfall rate or rain accumulation parameters estimated on a fixed duration (typically 1 min, 1 hour or 1 day). In this paper we used the concept of rain event. Among the numerous existing variables dedicated to the characterisation of rain events, the first part of this paper aims to obtain a parsimonious characterisation of these events using a minimal set of variables. In this context an algorithm based on Genetic Algorithm ...

  14. Global observations of electromagnetic and particle energy flux for an event during northern winter with southward interplanetary magnetic field

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Korth

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available The response of the polar ionosphere–thermosphere (I-T system to electromagnetic (EM energy input is fundamentally different to that from particle precipitation. To understand the I-T response to polar energy input one must know the intensities and spatial distributions of both EM and precipitation energy deposition. Moreover, since individual events typically display behavior different from statistical models, it is important to observe the global system state for specific events. We present an analysis of an event in Northern Hemisphere winter for sustained southward interplanetary magnetic field (IMF, 10 January 2002, 10:00–12:00 UT, for which excellent observations are available from the constellation of Iridium satellites, the SuperDARN radar network, and the Far-Ultraviolet (FUV instrument on the IMAGE satellite. Using data from these assets we determine the EM and particle precipitation energy fluxes to the Northern Hemisphere poleward of 60° MLAT and examine their spatial distributions and intensities. The accuracy of the global estimates are assessed quantitatively using comparisons with in-situ observations by DMSP along two orbit planes. While the location of EM power input evaluated from Iridium and SuperDARN data is in good agreement with DMSP, the magnitude estimated from DMSP observations is approximately four times larger. Corrected for this underestimate, the total EM power input to the Northern Hemisphere is 188 GW. Comparison of IMAGE FUV-derived distributions of the particle energy flux with DMSP plasma data indicates that the IMAGE FUV results similarly locate the precipitation accurately while underestimating the precipitation input somewhat. The total particle input is estimated to be 20 GW, nearly a factor of ten lower than the EM input. We therefore expect the thermosphere response to be determined primarily by the EM input even under winter conditions, and accurate assessment of the EM energy input is therefore key

  15. The role of the observed tropical convection in the generation of frost events in the southern cone of South America

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mueller, G.V. [Centro de Investigacion Cientifica y de Transferencia Tecnologica a la Produccion (CICYTTP/CONICET), Diamante (Argentina); Ambrizzi, T. [Universidade de Sao Paulo (Brazil). Dept. de Ciencias Atmosfericas; Ferraz, S.E. [Universidade Federal de Santa Maria/CRSPE-INPE (Brazil). Dept. de Fisica

    2008-07-01

    Based on previous results obtained from observations and linear wave theory analysis, the hypothesis that large-scale patterns can generate extreme cold events in southeast South America through the propagation of remotely excited Rossby waves was already suggested. This work will confirm these findings and extend their analysis through a series of numerical experiments using a primitive equation model where waves are excited by a thermal forcing situated in positions chosen according to observed convection anomalies over the equatorial region. The basic state used for these experiments is a composite of austral winters with maximum and minimum frequency of occurrence of generalized frosts that can affect a large area known as the Wet Pampas located in the central and eastern part of Argentina. The results suggest that stationary Rossby waves may be one important mechanism linking anomalous tropical convection with the extreme cold events in the Wet Pampas. The combination of tropical convection and a specific basic state can generate the right environment to guide the Rossby waves trigged by the tropical forcing towards South America. Depending on the phase of the waves entering the South American continent, they can favour the advection of anomalous wind at low levels from the south carrying cold and dry air over the whole southern extreme of the continent, producing a generalized frost in the Wet Pampa region. On the other hand, when a basic state based on the composites of minimum frosts is used, an anomalous anticyclone over the southern part of the continent generates a circulation with a south-southeast wind which brings maritime air and therefore humidity over the Wet Pampas region, creating negative temperature anomalies only over the northeastern part of the region. Under these conditions even if frosts occur they would not be generalized, as observed for the other basic state with maximum frequency of occurrence of generalized frosts. (orig.)

  16. Event Horizon Telescope Observations as Probes for Quantum Structure of Astrophysical Black Holes

    CERN Document Server

    Giddings, Steven B

    2016-01-01

    The need for a consistent quantum evolution for black holes has led to proposals that their semiclassical description is modified not just near the singularity, but at horizon or larger scales. If such modifications extend beyond the horizon, they influence regions accessible to distant observeration. Natural candidates for these modifications behave like metric fluctuations, with characteristic length and time scales set by the horizon radius. We investigate the possibility of using the Event Horizon Telescope to observe these effects, if they have a strength sufficient to make quantum evolution consistent with unitarity. We find that such quantum fluctuations can introduce a strong time dependence for the shape and size of the shadow that a black hole casts on its surrounding emission. For the black hole in the center of the Milky Way, detecting the rapid time variability of its shadow will require non-imaging timing techniques. However, for the much larger black hole in the center of the M87 galaxy, a vari...

  17. High-cadence observations of spicular-type events and their wave-signatures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shetye, Juie

    2016-05-01

    We present, a statistical study of spectral images, taken from the CRISP instrument at the Swedish 1-m Solar Telescope in H-alpha 656.28 nm of fast spicules with Doppler velocities in the range of -41km/s to +41 km/s. Remarkably, many of these spicules display apparent velocities above 500 km/s, very short lifetimes of up to 20 s combined with width or thickness of 100 km and apparent lengths of around 3500 km. Here we present, the other spectral properties of these events in the H-alpha line scan. Most features showed signature in multiple line position as we scan along the line scan. In around 89 % of the cases, there is temporal offset by 3.7 s to 5 s between the red-wing and blue-wing signatures. Another result is that 25% of cases are repetitive i.e. appear at the same location but they are not co-temporal or necessarily periodic in nature. Putting all the evidence together, we interpret the observations as mass motions (of flux tubes) that appear in the field-of-view of CRISP’s 0.0060 nm filters in the line of sight, along their projection as we scan. Further we observed transverse motion associated with these structures, which in some cases could be related to high-frequency kink-waves. We describe some cases showing this motion and the energies associated with them. The current work presented already tests the limits of current telescopes in terms of the temporal and spatial resolution. DKIST VTF instrument, having 3 times more spatial resolution than CRISP and much higher temporal resolution, we can being to understand the nature of such fine-scale transient phenomena in greater details.

  18. Radio Observations of the Tidal Disruption Event XMMSL1 J0740‑85

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexander, K. D.; Wieringa, M. H.; Berger, E.; Saxton, R. D.; Komossa, S.

    2017-03-01

    We present radio observations of the tidal disruption event candidate (TDE) XMMSL1 J0740‑85 spanning 592 to 875 days post X-ray discovery. We detect radio emission that fades from an initial peak flux density at 1.6 GHz of 1.19 ± 0.06 mJy to 0.65 ± 0.06 mJy, suggesting an association with the TDE. This makes XMMSL1 J0740‑85 at d = 75 Mpc the nearest TDE with detected radio emission to date and only the fifth TDE with radio emission overall. The observed radio luminosity rules out a powerful relativistic jet like that seen in the relativistic TDE Swift J1644+57. Instead, we infer from an equipartition analysis that the radio emission most likely arises from a non-relativistic outflow similar to that seen in the nearby TDE ASASSN-14li, with a velocity of about 104 km s‑1 and a kinetic energy of about 1048 erg, expanding into a medium with a density of about 102 cm‑3. Alternatively, the radio emission could arise from a weak initially relativistic but decelerated jet with an energy of ∼ 2× {10}50 erg, or (for an extreme disruption geometry) from the unbound debris. The radio data for XMMSL1 J0740‑85 continues to support the previous suggestion of a bimodal distribution of common non-relativistic isotropic outflows and rare relativistic jets in TDEs (in analogy with the relation between Type Ib/c supernovae and long-duration gamma-ray bursts). The radio data also provide a new measurement of the circumnuclear density on a sub-parsec scale around an extragalactic supermassive black hole.

  19. Modelling Pseudo-nitzschia events off southwest Ireland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cusack, Caroline; Mouriño, Helena; Moita, Maria Teresa; Silke, Joe

    2015-11-01

    Toxic and non-toxic Pseudo-nitzschia blooms are common in coastal waters worldwide including Ireland. Off southwest Ireland, the timing of blooms on a weekly scale is highly variable, while the seasonal pattern is more regular with a bimodal distribution. Upwelling conditions are closely linked to Pseudo-nitzschia blooms. The work presented here describes a mathematical model, a Zero-Inflated Negative Binomial Model, employed to forecast the onset, abundance and duration of Pseudo-nitzschia blooms in the bays of southwest Ireland. Variables used in the model included field observations of Pseudo-nitzschia, sea surface temperature and wind. The estimated model reveals that, on average, cell levels on a given day depend on sea surface temperature, the value of a wind index on the previous day and the number of Pseudo-nitzschia in the water the previous week. The model forecast performed well for the onset and duration of blooms. However, the magnitude of blooms was sometimes underestimated by the model.

  20. A Probabilistic and Observation Based Methodology to Estimate Small Craft Harbor Vulnerability to Tsunami Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keen, A. S.; Lynett, P. J.; Ayca, A.

    2016-12-01

    calibrated, the model was able to hindcast the damage produced in Santa Cruz Harbor during the 2010 Chile and 2011 Japan events. Results of the Santa Cruz analysis will be presented and discussed.

  1. Modelling new particle formation events in the South African savannah

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gierens, Rosa; Laakso, Lauri; Mogensen, Ditte; Vakkari, Ville; Buekes, Johan P.; Van Zyl, Pieter; Hakola, H.; Guenther, Alex B.; Pienaar, J. J.; Boy, Michael

    2014-05-28

    Africa is one of the less studied continents with respect to atmospheric aerosols. Savannahs are complex dynamic systems sensitive to climate and land-use changes, but the interaction of these systems with the atmosphere is not well understood. Atmospheric particles, called aerosols, affect the climate on regional and global scales, and are an important factor in air quality. In this study, measurements from a relatively clean savannah environment in South Africa were used to model new particle formation and growth. There already are some combined long-term measurements of trace gas concentrations together with aerosol and meteorological variables available, but to our knowledge this is the first detailed simulation that includes all the main processes relevant to particle formation. The results show that both of the particle formation mechanisms investigated overestimated the dependency of the formation rates on sulphuric acid. From the two particle formation mechanisms tested in this work, the approach that included low volatile organic compounds to the particle formation process was more accurate in describing the nucleation events than the approach that did not. To obtain a reliable estimate of aerosol concentration in simulations for larger scales, nucleation mechanisms would need to include organic compounds, at least in southern Africa. This work is the first step in developing a more comprehensive new particle formation model applicable to the unique environment in southern Africa. Such a model will assist in better understanding and predicting new particle formation – knowledge which could ultimately be used to mitigate impacts of climate change and air quality.

  2. Life events in bipolar disorder: towards more specific models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Sheri L

    2005-12-01

    This article reviews the evidence concerning life events as a predictor of symptoms within bipolar disorder. First, key methodological issues in this area are described, and criteria used for including studies in this review are defined. Then findings that negative life events predict worse outcomes within bipolar disorder are reviewed. Beyond general studies on relapse, it is important to differentiate predictors of depression from predictors of mania. When severe negative life events occur, they appear to trigger increases in bipolar depression. Nonetheless, many depressions are unrelated to negative life events and appear to be triggered by other variables. The strongest evidence suggests that negative life events do not trigger mania, except perhaps in certain contexts. Retrospective findings for schedule-disrupting life events as a trigger for manic symptoms await further assessment within a longitudinal study. Life events involving goal attainment do appear to trigger manic symptoms. Overall, it is time to differentiate among specific types of life events, as these different forms of events point towards mechanisms linking stressors with symptom expression. These mechanisms provide clues into ways to integrate the social environment with biological vulnerability (see [Monroe, S.M., & Johnson, S.L. (1990)). the dimensions of life stress and the specificity of disorder. Journal of Applied Social Psychology, 20, 167-1694; Harris, T.O. (1991). Life stress and illness: the question of specificity. Annals of Behavioral Medicine, 13, 211-219]).

  3. Observational Equivalence of Discrete String Models and Market Models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kerkhof, F.L.J.; Pelsser, A.

    2002-01-01

    In this paper we show that, contrary to the claim made in Longsta, Santa-Clara, and Schwartz (2001a) and Longsta, Santa-Clara, and Schwartz (2001b), discrete string models are not more parsimonious than market models.In fact, they are found to be observationally equivalent.We derive that, for the es

  4. Observation results of relativistic electrons detected by Fengyun-1 satellite and analysis of relativistic electron enhancement (REE) events

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YANG XiaoChao; WANG Shidin

    2008-01-01

    The space particle component detector on Fengyun-1 satellite which works at the sun-synchronous orbit of about 870 km altitude has detected relativistic electrons for a long time.In comparison with the SAMPEX satellite observations during 1999--2004,the relativistic electron data from Fengyun-1 satellite from June 1999 to 2005 are used to analyze the relativistic electron enhancement (REE) events at the low earth orbit,and the possible correlation among REE events at the low earth orbit,high-speed solar wind and geomagnetic storms is discussed.The statistical result presents that 45 REE events are found in total during this time period,and the strong REE events with the maximum daily average flux > 400 cm-2.sr-1.s-1 occur mostly during the transition period from solar maximum to solar minimum.Among these 45 REE events,four strong REE events last a longer time period from 26- to 51-day and correlate closely with high speed solar wind and strong geo-magnetic storms.Meanwhile,several strong geomagnetic storms occur continu-ously before these REE events,and these continuous geomagnetic storms would be an important factor causing these long-lasting strong REE events.The correlation analysis for overall 45 events indicates that the strength of the REE events corre-lates with the solar wind speed and the strength of the geomagnetic storm,and the correlation for strong REE events is much stronger than that for weak REE events.

  5. Waiting time distribution of solar energetic particle events modeled with a non-stationary Poisson process

    CERN Document Server

    Li, Chuan; Wang, Linghua; Su, Wei; Fang, Cheng

    2014-01-01

    We present a study of the waiting time distributions (WTDs) of solar energetic particle (SEP) events observed with the spacecraft $WIND$ and $GOES$. Both the WTDs of solar electron events (SEEs) and solar proton events (SPEs) display a power-law tail $\\sim \\Delta t^{-\\gamma}$. The SEEs display a broken power-law WTD. The power-law index is $\\gamma_{1} =$ 0.99 for the short waiting times ($$100 hours). The break of the WTD of SEEs is probably due to the modulation of the corotating interaction regions (CIRs). The power-law index $\\gamma \\sim$ 1.82 is derived for the WTD of SPEs that is consistent with the WTD of type II radio bursts, indicating a close relationship between the shock wave and the production of energetic protons. The WTDs of SEP events can be modeled with a non-stationary Poisson process which was proposed to understand the waiting time statistics of solar flares (Wheatland 2000; Aschwanden $\\&$ McTiernan 2010). We generalize the method and find that, if the SEP event rate $\\lambda = 1/\\Delt...

  6. EXPLOSIVE EVENTS ON A SUBARCSECOND SCALE IN IRIS OBSERVATIONS: A CASE STUDY

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Huang, Zhenghua; Xia, Lidong; Fu, Hui [Shandong Provincial Key Laboratory of Optical Astronomy and Solar-Terrestrial Environment, Institute of Space Sciences, Shandong University, Weihai, 264209 Shandong (China); Madjarska, Maria S.; Doyle, J. G. [Armagh Observatory, College Hill, Armagh BT61 9DG (United Kingdom); Galsgaard, Klaus, E-mail: huangzhenghua@gmail.com [Niels Bohr Institute, DK-2100 Copenhagen (Denmark)

    2014-12-20

    We present a study of a typical explosive event (EE) at subarcsecond scale witnessed by strong non-Gaussian profiles with blue- and redshifted emission of up to 150 km s{sup –1} seen in the transition region Si IV 1402.8 Å, and the chromospheric Mg II k 2796.4 Å and C II 1334.5 Å observed by the Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph (IRIS) at unprecedented spatial and spectral resolution. For the first time an EE is found to be associated with very small-scale (∼120 km wide) plasma ejection followed by retraction in the chromosphere. These small-scale jets originate from a compact bright-point-like structure of ∼1.''5 size as seen in the IRIS 1330 Å images. SDO/AIA and SDO/HMI co-observations show that the EE lies in the footpoint of a complex loop-like brightening system. The EE is detected in the higher temperature channels of AIA 171 Å, 193 Å, and 131 Å, suggesting that it reaches a higher temperature of log T = 5.36 ± 0.06 (K). Brightenings observed in the AIA channels with durations 90-120 s are probably caused by the plasma ejections seen in the chromosphere. The wings of the C II line behave in a similar manner to the Si IV'S, indicating close formation temperatures, while the Mg II k wings show additional Doppler-shifted emission. Magnetic convergence or emergence followed by cancellation at a rate of 5 × 10{sup 14} Mx s{sup –1} is associated with the EE region. The combined changes of the locations and the flux of different magnetic patches suggest that magnetic reconnection must have taken place. Our results challenge several theories put forward in the past to explain non-Gaussian line profiles, i.e., EEs. Our case study on its own, however, cannot reject these theories; thus, further in-depth studies on the phenomena producing EEs are required.

  7. Impact of agricultural management on pluvial flash floods - Case study of an extreme event observed in Austria in 2016

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lumassegger, Simon; Achleitner, Stefan; Kohl, Bernhard

    2017-04-01

    Central Europe was affected by extreme flash floods in summer 2016 triggered by short, high-intensity storm cells. Besides fluvial runoff, local pluvial floods appear to increase recently. In frame of the research project SAFFER-CC (sensitivity assessment of critical condition for local flash floods - evaluating the recurrence under climate change) surface runoff and pluvial flooding is assessed using a coupled hydrological/2D hydrodynamic model for the severely affected municipality of Schwertberg, Upper Austria. In this small catchment several flooding events occurred in the last years, where the most severe event occurred during summer 2016. Several areas could only be reached after the flood wave subsided with observed flood marks up to one meter. The modeled catchment is intensively cultivated with maize, sugar beets, winter wheat and soy on the hillside and hence highly vulnerable to water erosion. The average inclination is relatively steep with 15 % leading to high flow velocities of surface runoff associated with large amounts of transported sediments. To assess the influence of land use and soil conservation on flash floods, field experiments with a portable irrigation spray installation were carried out at different locations. The test plots were subjected to rainfall with constant intensity of 100 mm/h for one hour. Consecutively a super intense, one hour lasting, rainfall hydrograph was applied after 30 minutes at the same plots, ranging from 50 mm/h to 200 mm/h. Surface runoff was collected and measured in a tank and water samples were taken to determine the suspended material load. Large differences of runoff coefficients were determined depending on the agricultural management. The largest discharge was measured in a maize field, where surface runoff occurred immediately after start of irrigation. The determined runoff coefficients ranged from 0.22 for soy up to 0.65 for maize for the same soil type and inclination. The conclusion that runoff is

  8. Observation of seasonal variation of atmospheric multiple-muon events in the MINOS Near and Far Detectors

    CERN Document Server

    Adamson, P; Aurisano, A; Barr, G; Bishai, M; Blake, A; Bock, G J; Bogert, D; Cao, S V; Castromonte, C M; Childress, S; Coelho, J A B; Corwin, L; Cronin-Hennessy, D; de Jong, J K; Devan, A V; Devenish, N E; Diwan, M V; Escobar, C O; Evans, J J; Falk, E; Feldman, G J; Frohne, M V; Gallagher, H R; Gomes, R A; Goodman, M C; Gouffon, P; Graf, N; Gran, R; Grzelak, K; Habig, A; Hahn, S R; Hartnell, J; Hatcher, R; Holin, A; Huang, J; Hylen, J; Irwin, G M; Isvan, Z; James, C; Jensen, D; Kafka, T; Kasahara, S M S; Koizumi, G; Kordosky, M; Kreymer, A; Lang, K; Ling, J; Litchfield, P J; Lucas, P; Mann, W A; Marshak, M L; Mayer, N; McGivern, C; Medeiros, M M; Mehdiyev, R; Meier, J R; Messier, M D; Miller, W H; Mishra, S R; Sher, S Moed; Moore, C D; Mualem, L; Musser, J; Naples, D; Nelson, J K; Newman, H B; Nichol, R J; Nowak, J A; Connor, J O; Orchanian, M; Osprey, S; Pahlka, R B; Paley, J; Patterson, R B; Pawloski, G; Perch, A; Phan-Budd, S; Plunkett, R K; Poonthottathil, N; Qiu, X; Radovic, A; Rebel, B; Rosenfeld, C; Rubin, H A; Sanchez, M C; Schneps, J; Schreckenberger, A; Schreiner, P; Sharma, R; Sousa, A; Tagg, N; Talaga, R L; Thomas, J; Thomson, M A; Tian, X; Timmons, A; Tognini, S C; Toner, R; Torretta, D; Urheim, J; Vahle, P; Viren, B; Weber, A; Webb, R C; White, C; Whitehead, L; Whitehead, L H; Wojcicki, S G; Zwaska, R

    2015-01-01

    We report the first observation of seasonal modulations in the rates of cosmic ray multiple-muon events at two underground sites, the MINOS Near Detector with an overburden of 225 mwe, and the MINOS Far Detector site at 2100 mwe. At the deeper site, multiple-muon events with muons separated by more than 8 m exhibit a seasonal rate that peaks during the summer, similar to that of single-muon events. In contrast and unexpectedly, the rate of multiple-muon events with muons separated by less than 5-8 m, and the rate of multiple-muon events in the smaller, shallower Near Detector, exhibit a seasonal rate modulation that peaks in the winter.

  9. Observation of seasonal variation of atmospheric multiple-muon events in the MINOS near and far detectors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Adamson, P. [Fermi National Accelerator Lab. (FNAL), Batavia, IL (United States). et al.

    2015-06-09

    We report the first observation of seasonal modulations in the rates of cosmic ray multiple-muon events at two underground sites, the MINOS Near Detector with an overburden of 225 mwe, and the MINOS Far Detector site at 2100 mwe. Thus, at the deeper site, multiple-muon events with muons separated by more than 8 m exhibit a seasonal rate that peaks during the summer, similar to that of single-muon events. In contrast and unexpectedly, the rate of multiple-muon events with muons separated by less than 5–8 m, and the rate of multiple-muon events in the smaller, shallower Near Detector, exhibit a seasonal rate modulation that peaks in the winter.

  10. Modelling New Particle Formation Events in the South African Savannah

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gierens, Rosa; Laakso, Lauri; Mogensen, Ditte; Vakkari, Ville; Beukes, J. P.; Van Zyl, Pieter; Hakola, H.; Guenther, Alex B.; Pienaar, J. J.; Boy, Michael

    2014-01-01

    Africa is one of the less studied continents with respect to atmospheric aerosols. Savannahs are complex dynamic systems sensitive to climate and land-use changes, but the interaction with the atmosphere is not well understood. Atmospheric particles, aka aerosols, affect the climate on regional and global scale, and are an important factor in air quality. In this study measurements from a relatively clean savannah environment in South Africa were used to model new particle formation and growth. There are already some combined long-term measurements of trace gas concentrations together with aerosol and meteorological variables available, but to our knowledge this is the first time detailed simulations, that include all the main processes relevant to particle formation, were done. The results show that both investigated particle formation mechanisms overestimated the formation rates dependency on sulphuric acid. The approach including low volatile organic compounds to the particle formation process was more accurate in describing the nucleation events. To get reliable estimation of aerosol concentration in simulations for larger scales, nucleation mechanisms would need to include organic compounds, at least in southern Africa.

  11. ASASSN-14li: A Model Tidal Disruption Event

    CERN Document Server

    Krolik, Julian; Svirski, Gilad; Cheng, Roseanne M

    2016-01-01

    ASASSN-14li is a recently-discovered tidal disruption event with an exceptionally rich data-set: spectra and lightcurves in soft X-rays, UV, optical, and radio. To understand its emission properties in all these bands, we have extended our model for post-tidal disruption accretion and photon production to estimate both soft X-ray radiation produced by the prompt accretion phase and synchrotron emission associated with the bow shock driven through an external medium by the unbound tidal debris, as well as optical and UV light. We find that fiducial values of the stellar mass ($1 M_\\odot$) and black hole mass ($10^{6.5} M_{\\odot}$) yield: quantitative agreement with the optical/UV luminosity, lightcurve, and color temperature; approximate agreement with the somewhat uncertain soft X-ray spectrum and lightcurve; and quantitative agreement with the radio luminosity, spectrum and lightcurve. Equipartition analysis of the radio data implies that the radio-emitting region expands with a constant speed, and its magni...

  12. ISEE 3 observations of low-energy proton bidirectional events and their relation to isolated interplanetary magnetic structures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marsden, R. G.; Sanderson, T. R.; Tranquille, C.; Wenzel, K.-P.; Smith, E. J.

    1987-01-01

    The paper represents the results of a comprehensive survey of low-energy proton bidirectional anisotropies and associated transient magnetic structures as observed in the 35-1600 keV energy range on ISEE-3 during the last solar maximum. The majority of observed bidirectional flow (BDF) events (more than 70 percent) are associated with isolated magnetic structures which are postulated to be an interplanetary manifestation of coronal mass ejection (CME) events. The observed BDF events can be qualitatively grouped into five classes depending on the field signature of the related magnetic structure and the association (or lack of association) with an interplanetary shock. Concerning the topology of the CME-related magnetic structures, the observations are interpreted as being consistent with a detached bubble, comprising closed loops or tightly wound helices.

  13. Short-term bleeding events observed with clopidogrel loading in acute ischemic stroke patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leung, Lester Y; Albright, Karen C; Boehme, Amelia K; Tarsia, Joseph; Shah, Kamal R; Siegler, James E; Jones, Erica M; Pletsch, Gayle R; Beasley, Timothy M; Martin-Schild, Sheryl

    2013-10-01

    . Clopidogrel loading was not associated with increased odds of serious bleeding events in the crude model (odds ratio [OR] .92, 95% confidence interval [CI] .27-3.13) or after adjusting for covariates and confounders of interest (OR 1.06, 95% CI .28-4.04). Contrary to our original hypothesis, patients with AIS receiving clopidogrel loading doses within 24 hours of symptom onset did not appear to experience a higher rate of new serious bleeding events during acute hospitalization when compared with patients who did not receive loading doses. The Platelet-Oriented Inhibition in New TIA and Minor Ischemic Stroke trial is expected to provide insight into the safety of clopidogrel loading as an acute intervention after cerebral ischemia. Copyright © 2013 National Stroke Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Using the Bifocal Modeling Framework to Resolve "Discrepant Events" Between Physical Experiments and Virtual Models in Biology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blikstein, Paulo; Fuhrmann, Tamar; Salehi, Shima

    2016-08-01

    In this paper, we investigate an approach to supporting students' learning in science through a combination of physical experimentation and virtual modeling. We present a study that utilizes a scientific inquiry framework, which we call "bifocal modeling," to link student-designed experiments and computer models in real time. In this study, a group of high school students designed computer models of bacterial growth with reference to a simultaneous physical experiment they were conducting, and were able to validate the correctness of their model against the results of their experiment. Our findings suggest that as the students compared their virtual models with physical experiments, they encountered "discrepant events" that contradicted their existing conceptions and elicited a state of cognitive disequilibrium. This experience of conflict encouraged students to further examine their ideas and to seek more accurate explanations of the observed natural phenomena, improving the design of their computer models.

  15. Diet Activity Characteristic of Large-scale Sports Events Based on HACCP Management Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiao-Feng Su

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The study proposed major sports events dietary management based on "HACCP" management model. According to the characteristic of major sports events catering activities. Major sports events are not just showcase level of competitive sports activities which have become comprehensive special events including social, political, economic, cultural and other factors, complex. Sporting events conferred reach more diverse goals and objectives of economic, political, cultural, technological and other influence and impact.

  16. Observations and Models of Galaxy Assembly Bias

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campbell, Duncan A.

    2017-01-01

    The assembly history of dark matter haloes imparts various correlations between a halo’s physical properties and its large scale environment, i.e. assembly bias. It is common for models of the galaxy-halo connection to assume that galaxy properties are only a function of halo mass, implicitly ignoring how assembly bias may affect galaxies. Recently, programs to model and constrain the degree to which galaxy properties are influenced by assembly bias have been undertaken; however, the extent and character of galaxy assembly bias remains a mystery. Nevertheless, characterizing and modeling galaxy assembly bias is an important step in understanding galaxy evolution and limiting any systematic effects assembly bias may pose in cosmological measurements using galaxy surveys.I will present work on modeling and constraining the effect of assembly bias in two galaxy properties: stellar mass and star-formation rate. Conditional abundance matching allows for these galaxy properties to be tied to halo formation history to a variable degree, making studies of the relative strength of assembly bias possible. Galaxy-galaxy clustering and galactic conformity, the degree to which galaxy color is correlated between neighbors, are sensitive observational measures of galaxy assembly bias. I will show how these measurements can be used to constrain galaxy assembly bias and the peril of ignoring it.

  17. Recall of expressed affect during naturalistically observed interpersonal events in those with borderline personality disorder or depressive disorder.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Whitney C; Tragesser, Sarah L; Tomko, Rachel L; Mehl, Matthias R; Trull, Timothy J

    2014-02-01

    We used the Electronically Activated Recorder to observe 31 individuals with either borderline personality disorder (BPD; n = 20) or a history of a depressive disorder (n = 11). The Electronically Activated Recorder yielded approximately forty-seven 50-second sound clips per day for 3 consecutive days. Recordings were coded for expressed positive affect (PA) and negative affect (NA), and coder ratings were compared to participants' reports about their PA and NA during interpersonal events. BPD participants did not differ from participants with depressive disorder in terms of their recalled levels of NA or PA across different types of interpersonal events. However, significant discrepancies between recalled and observed levels of NA and PA were found for BPD participants for all types of interpersonal events. These findings may reflect limitations in the ability of those with BPD to recall their emotional intensity during interpersonal events and may also provide some evidence for emotional invalidation experienced by those with BPD.

  18. Galactic Cosmic Ray Event-Based Risk Model (GERM) Code

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cucinotta, Francis A.; Plante, Ianik; Ponomarev, Artem L.; Kim, Myung-Hee Y.

    2013-01-01

    This software describes the transport and energy deposition of the passage of galactic cosmic rays in astronaut tissues during space travel, or heavy ion beams in patients in cancer therapy. Space radiation risk is a probability distribution, and time-dependent biological events must be accounted for physical description of space radiation transport in tissues and cells. A stochastic model can calculate the probability density directly without unverified assumptions about shape of probability density function. The prior art of transport codes calculates the average flux and dose of particles behind spacecraft and tissue shielding. Because of the signaling times for activation and relaxation in the cell and tissue, transport code must describe temporal and microspatial density of functions to correlate DNA and oxidative damage with non-targeted effects of signals, bystander, etc. These are absolutely ignored or impossible in the prior art. The GERM code provides scientists data interpretation of experiments; modeling of beam line, shielding of target samples, and sample holders; and estimation of basic physical and biological outputs of their experiments. For mono-energetic ion beams, basic physical and biological properties are calculated for a selected ion type, such as kinetic energy, mass, charge number, absorbed dose, or fluence. Evaluated quantities are linear energy transfer (LET), range (R), absorption and fragmentation cross-sections, and the probability of nuclear interactions after 1 or 5 cm of water equivalent material. In addition, a set of biophysical properties is evaluated, such as the Poisson distribution for a specified cellular area, cell survival curves, and DNA damage yields per cell. Also, the GERM code calculates the radiation transport of the beam line for either a fixed number of user-specified depths or at multiple positions along the Bragg curve of the particle in a selected material. The GERM code makes the numerical estimates of basic

  19. Pregnancy outcome in patients with antiphospholipid syndrome after cerebral ischaemic events: an observational study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischer-Betz, R; Specker, C; Brinks, R; Schneider, M

    2012-10-01

    Among the most prominent features associated with antiphospholipid syndrome (APS) are cerebral ischaemic events (CVE). Pregnancy with APS increases the risk of thrombosis, including CVE. This study was undertaken to assess the risk of obstetric complications and recurrence of CVE during pregnancy in women with APS and previous CVE. We prospectively observed 23 pregnancies in 20 women (median age 31 years) with primary (n = 8) or secondary APS (n = 12). Eight patients had transient ischaemic attacks (TIA) and 12 had stroke before pregnancy. All patients received aspirin 100 mg daily in combination with low molecular weight heparin (LMWH) during their pregnancies. The live birth rate was 91.3% (n = 21). Obstetrical complications consisted mainly of preeclampsia (n = 8, 34.8%) and preterm delivery (n = 9, 42.9%). The risk for preeclampsia increased in patients who were positive for multiple antiphospholipid antibodies (aPL) (odds ratio (OR) 3.06 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.01-9.32)) per positive aPL test (i.e anticardiolipin antibody, anti-ß2-glycoprotein I antibody, lupus anticoagulant) (p 0.049). Three patients experienced recurrent CVE in the context of pregnancy (one during pregnancy, two in the postpartum period). We found an increased, but not significant, risk of a new episode of cerebral ischaemia in patients with pregnancies complicated by preeclampsia (two out of the eight preeclampsia (p 0.15). Despite treatment, there is a significant risk for pregnancy complications in APS patients with previous CVE. Especially in the context of preeclampsia, anticoagulation should be given rigorously to prevent recurrence of CVE.

  20. Survival and cardiovascular events in men treated with testosterone replacement therapy: an intention-to-treat observational cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wallis, Christopher J D; Lo, Kirk; Lee, Yuna; Krakowsky, Yonah; Garbens, Alaina; Satkunasivam, Raj; Herschorn, Sender; Kodama, Ronald T; Cheung, Patrick; Narod, Steven A; Nam, Robert K

    2016-06-01

    Conflicting evidence exists for the association between testosterone replacement therapy and mortality and cardiovascular events. The US Food and Drug Administration recently cautioned that testosterone replacement therapy might increase risk of heart attack and stroke, based on evidence from studies with short treatment duration and follow-up. No previous study has assessed the effect of duration of testosterone treatment on these outcomes. We aimed to assess the association between long-term use of testosterone replacement therapy and mortality, cardiovascular events, and prostate cancer diagnoses, using a time-varying exposure analysis. We did a population-based matched cohort study of men aged 66 years or older newly treated with testosterone replacement therapy and controls matched for age, region of residence, comorbidity, diabetes status, and index year from 2007-12 in Ontario, Canada, using data from the Ontario Drug Benefit database, the Canadian Institute for Health Information (CIHI) Discharge Abstract Database, the CIHI National Ambulatory Care Reporting System, the Ontario Health Insurance Plan database, the Ontario Myocardial Infarction Database, the Ontario Diabetes Database, the Ontario Cancer Registry, and the Registered Persons database. We assessed the association between cumulative testosterone replacement therapy exposure and mortality, cardiovascular events, and prostate cancer using marginal models with a time-varying testosterone exposure. We included 10 311 men treated with testosterone replacement therapy and 28 029 controls between Jan 1, 2007, and June 30, 2012. Over a median follow-up of 5·3 years (IQR 3·6-7·5) in the testosterone replacement therapy group and 5·1 years (3·4-7·4) in the control group, patients treated with testosterone replacement therapy had lower mortality than did controls (hazard ratio [HR] 0·88, 95% CI 0·84-0·93). Patients in the lowest tertile of testosterone exposure had increased risk of mortality

  1. Lagrangian Observations and Modeling of Marine Larvae

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paris, Claire B.; Irisson, Jean-Olivier

    2017-04-01

    Just within the past two decades, studies on the early-life history stages of marine organisms have led to new paradigms in population dynamics. Unlike passive plant seeds that are transported by the wind or by animals, marine larvae have motor and sensory capabilities. As a result, marine larvae have a tremendous capacity to actively influence their dispersal. This is continuously revealed as we develop new techniques to observe larvae in their natural environment and begin to understand their ability to detect cues throughout ontogeny, process the information, and use it to ride ocean currents and navigate their way back home, or to a place like home. We present innovative in situ and numerical modeling approaches developed to understand the underlying mechanisms of larval transport in the ocean. We describe a novel concept of a Lagrangian platform, the Drifting In Situ Chamber (DISC), designed to observe and quantify complex larval behaviors and their interactions with the pelagic environment. We give a brief history of larval ecology research with the DISC, showing that swimming is directional in most species, guided by cues as diverse as the position of the sun or the underwater soundscape, and even that (unlike humans!) larvae orient better and swim faster when moving as a group. The observed Lagrangian behavior of individual larvae are directly implemented in the Connectivity Modeling System (CMS), an open source Lagrangian tracking application. Simulations help demonstrate the impact that larval behavior has compared to passive Lagrangian trajectories. These methodologies are already the base of exciting findings and are promising tools for documenting and simulating the behavior of other small pelagic organisms, forecasting their migration in a changing ocean.

  2. Geomagnetic transmission disturbances and heavy-ion fluences observed in low Earth orbit during the solar energetic particle events of October 1989.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boberg, P R; Tylka, A J; Adams, J H; Beahm, L P; Fluckiger, E O; Kleis, T; Kobel, E

    1996-01-01

    The large solar energetic particle (SEP) events and simultaneous large geomagnetic disturbances observed during October 1989 posed a significant, rapidly evolving space radiation hazard. Using data from the GOES-7, NOAA-10, IMP-8 and LDEF satellites, we determined the geomagnetic transmission, heavy ion fluences, mean Fe ionic charge state, and effective radiation hazard observed in low Earth orbit (LEO) for these SEPs. We modeled the geomagnetic transmission by tracing particles through the combination of the internal International Geomagnetic Reference Field (IGRF) and the Tsyganenko (1989) magnetospheric field models, extending the modeling to large geomagnetic disturbances. We used our results to assess the radiation hazard such very large SEP events would pose in the anticipated 52 degrees inclination space station orbit.

  3. General joint frailty model for recurrent event data with a dependent terminal event: Application to follicular lymphoma data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mazroui, Yassin; Mathoulin-Pelissier, Simone; Soubeyran, Pierre; Rondeau, Virginie

    2012-05-20

    Many biomedical studies focus on delaying disease relapses and on prolonging survival. Usual methods only consider one event, often the first recurrence or death. However, ignoring the other recurrences may lead to biased results. The whole history of the disease should be considered for each patient. In addition, some diseases involve recurrences that can increase the risk of death. In this case, the death time may be dependent on the recurrent event history. We propose a joint frailty model to analyze recurrences and death simultaneously. Two gamma-distributed frailties take into account both the inter-recurrences dependence and the dependence between the recurrences and the survival times. We estimate separate parameters for disease recurrent event times and survival times in the joint frailty model to distinguish treatment effects and prognostic factors on these two types of events. We show how maximum penalized likelihood estimation can be applied to semiparametric estimation of the continuous hazard functions in the proposed joint frailty model with right censoring. We also propose parametrical approach. We evaluate the model by simulation studies and illustrate through a study of patients with follicular lymphoma.

  4. Modeling of an interplanetary disturbance event tracked by the interplanetary scintillation method

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Akasofu, S.-I.; Lee, L.-H.

    1989-01-01

    Using the method which we have developed during the last few years, an interplanetary disturbance event on 25-29 August 1978, was modeled in an attempt to reproduce the corresponding interplanetary scintillation observation, as well as the simultaneous ISEE-3 satellite data. It is shown that a shock wave generated from the region of a disappearing filament on 23 August can account for the observed shock wave structure and the scintillation sky maps but fails to explain the broad high speed stream behind the shock wave, which lasted until about 5 September. On the other hand, it is also shown that a shock wave generated by the sudden activation of the coronal hole on the same day can account for the high speed stream, but not the observed shock wave. Therefore, an attempt is made to combine the effects of both the filament and the coronal hole. The simulation results reproduce fairly well the major events between 27 August and 5 September 1978. Several specific suggestions are made to improve the scheme for forecasting interplanetary disturbance events.

  5. Modeling of an interplanetary disturbance event tracked by the interplanetary scintillation method. Scientific Report No. 5

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Akasofu, S.; Lee, L.H.

    1989-01-01

    Using a method that we have developed, we modelled an interplanetary disturbance event on 25-29 August 1978, in an attempt to reproduce the corresponding interplanetary scintillation observation as well as the simultaneous ISEE-3 satellite data. It is shown that a shock wave generated from the region of a disappearing filament of 23 August can account for the observed shock wave structure and the scintillation sky maps reconstructed by Tappin et al. (1983), but fails to explain the broad high speed stream behind the shock wave, which lasted until about 5 September. On the other hand, it is also shown that a shock wave generated by the sudden activation of the coronal hole on the same day, suggested by Hewish et al, can account for the high speed stream, but not the observed shock wave. Therefore, an attempt is made to combine the effects of both the filament and the coronal hole. The simulation results reproduce fairly well the major events between 27 August and 5 September 1978. Several specific suggestions are made to improve the scheme for forecasting interplanetary disturbance events.

  6. Strategies to Automatically Derive a Process Model from a Configurable Process Model Based on Event Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mauricio Arriagada-Benítez

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Configurable process models are frequently used to represent business workflows and other discrete event systems among different branches of large organizations: they unify commonalities shared by all branches and describe their differences, at the same time. The configuration of such models is usually done manually, which is challenging. On the one hand, when the number of configurable nodes in the configurable process model grows, the size of the search space increases exponentially. On the other hand, the person performing the configuration may lack the holistic perspective to make the right choice for all configurable nodes at the same time, since choices influence each other. Nowadays, information systems that support the execution of business processes create event data reflecting how processes are performed. In this article, we propose three strategies (based on exhaustive search, genetic algorithms and a greedy heuristic that use event data to automatically derive a process model from a configurable process model that better represents the characteristics of the process in a specific branch. These strategies have been implemented in our proposed framework and tested in both business-like event logs as recorded in a higher educational enterprise resource planning system and a real case scenario involving a set of Dutch municipalities.

  7. An Analysis and Modeling Study of a Sea Fog Event over the Yellow and Bohai Seas

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2008-01-01

    In this study, a sea fog event which occurred on 27 March 2005 over the Yellow and Bohai Seas was investigated observationally and numerically. Almost all available observational data were used, including satellite imagery of Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES)-9, three data sets from station observations at Dandong, Dalian and Qingdao, objectively reanalyzed data of final run analysis (FNL) issued by the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) results. Synoptic conditions and fog characteristics were analyzed. The fog formed when warm,moist air was advected northwards over the cool water of the Yellow and Bohai Seas, and dissipated when a cold front brought northerly winds and cool, dry air. In order to better understand the fog formation mechanism, a high-resolution RAMS modeling with a 6km×6km grid, initialized and validated by FNL data, was designed. A 48h modeling that started from 12 UTC 26 March 2005reproduced the main characteristics of this sea fog event. The simulated lower visibility area agreed reasonably well with the sea fog region identified from the satellite imagery. Advection cooling effect seemed to play a significant role in the fog formation.

  8. Observations and Modeling of Solar Flare Atmospheric Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Y.

    2015-09-01

    Solar flares are one of the most energetic events in solar atmosphere, which last minutes to tens of minutes. The eruption of a solar flare involves energy release, plasma heating, particle acceleration, mass flows, waves, etc. A solar flare releases a large amount of energy, and its emission spans a wide wavelength range. Solar flares are usually accompanied by coronal mass ejections (CMEs); therefore they could significantly affect the space environments between the Earth and the Sun. At present, we do not fully understand the whole flare process. There are still many important questions to be resolved, such as when and where is the energy released? How long does the energy release last? What are the main ways of energy release? And how does the solar atmosphere respond to the energy release? To address these questions, we study in detail the flare heating and dynamic evolution. We first give a brief review of previous flare studies (Chapter 1), and introduce the observing instruments (Chapter 2) and the modeling method (Chapter 3) related to this thesis work. Then we use spectral data to investigate the chromospheric evaporation (Chapter 4). Based on the results, we further explore the flare heating problem. With observationally inferred heating functions, we model two flare loops, and compare the results with observations (Chapter 5). A consistency is achieved between modeling and observations. In addition, we model two different sets of flare loop systems with quite different heating profiles and dynamic evolutions (Chapter 6). The details are described as below. Firstly, we investigate the chromospheric evaporation in the flare on 2007 January 16 using line profiles observed by the Extreme-ultraviolet (EUV) Imaging Spectrometer (EIS) on board Hinode. Three points with different magnetic polarities at flare ribbons are analyzed in detail. We find that the three points show different patterns of upflows and downflows in the impulsive phase of the flare. The

  9. The link between the Barents Sea and ENSO events reproduced by NEMO model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. N. Stepanov

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available An analysis of observational data in the Barents Sea along a meridian at 33°30´ E between 70°30´ and 72°30´ N has reported a negative correlation between El Niño/La Niña-Southern Oscillation (ENSO events and water temperature in the top 200 m: the temperature drops about 0.5 °C during warm ENSO events while during cold ENSO events the top 200 m layer of the Barents Sea is warmer. Results from 1 and 1/4-degree global NEMO models show a similar response for the whole Barents Sea. During the strong warm ENSO event in 1997–1998 an anticyclonic atmospheric circulation is settled over the Barents Sea instead of a usual cyclonic circulation. This change enhances heat loses in the Barents Sea, as well as substantially influencing the Barents Sea inflow from the North Atlantic, via changes in ocean currents. Under normal conditions along the Scandinavian peninsula there is a warm current entering the Barents sea from the North Atlantic, however after the 1997–1998 event this current is weakened.

    During 1997–1998 the model annual mean temperature in the Barents Sea is decreased by about 0.8 °C, also resulting in a higher sea ice volume. In contrast during the cold ENSO events in 1999–2000 and 2007–2008 the model shows a lower sea ice volume, and higher annual mean temperatures in the upper layer of the Barents Sea of about 0.7 °C.

    An analysis of model data shows that the Barents Sea inflow is the main source for the variability of Barents Sea heat content, and is forced by changing pressure and winds in the North Atlantic. However, surface heat-exchange with atmosphere can also play a dominant role in the Barents Sea annual heat balance, especially for the subsequent year after ENSO events.

  10. Top quark event modelling and generators in CMS

    CERN Document Server

    Bilin, Bugra

    2016-01-01

    State-of-the-art theoretical predictions accurate to next-to-leading order QCD interfaced with {\\sc pythia} and {\\sc herwig} are tested by comparing the unfolded $t\\bar{t}$ differential data collected with the CMS detector at 8 TeV and 13 TeV. These predictions are also compared with the measurements of underlying event activity distributions accompanying ${\\rm t\\bar{t}}$ events. Furthermore, predictions of beyond NLO accuracy in QCD are compared with the data.

  11. Prior event rate ratio adjustment for hidden confounding in observational studies of treatment effectiveness: a pairwise Cox likelihood approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Nan Xuan; Henley, William Edward

    2016-12-10

    Observational studies provide a rich source of information for assessing effectiveness of treatment interventions in many situations where it is not ethical or practical to perform randomized controlled trials. However, such studies are prone to bias from hidden (unmeasured) confounding. A promising approach to identifying and reducing the impact of unmeasured confounding is prior event rate ratio (PERR) adjustment, a quasi-experimental analytic method proposed in the context of electronic medical record database studies. In this paper, we present a statistical framework for using a pairwise approach to PERR adjustment that removes bias inherent in the original PERR method. A flexible pairwise Cox likelihood function is derived and used to demonstrate the consistency of the simple and convenient alternative PERR (PERR-ALT) estimator. We show how to estimate standard errors and confidence intervals for treatment effect estimates based on the observed information and provide R code to illustrate how to implement the method. Assumptions required for the pairwise approach (as well as PERR) are clarified, and the consequences of model misspecification are explored. Our results confirm the need for researchers to consider carefully the suitability of the method in the context of each problem. Extensions of the pairwise likelihood to more complex designs involving time-varying covariates or more than two periods are considered. We illustrate the application of the method using data from a longitudinal cohort study of enzyme replacement therapy for lysosomal storage disorders. © 2016 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  12. Infrared signature of transient luminous events in the middle atmosphere simulated for a limb line of sight observation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Payan, Sebastien; Romand, Frederic; Laurence, Croizé

    2017-04-01

    Transient Luminous Events (TLE) are electrical and optical events which occurs above thunderstorms. Their occurrence is closely linked with the lightning activity below thunderstorms. TLEs are observed from the base of the stratosphere to the thermosphere (15 - 110 km). They are a very brief phenomenon which lasts from 1 to 300 milliseconds. At a worldwide scale, some to some tenths of TLEs occurs each minute. The energy deposition, about some tenths of megajoules, is able to ionize, dissociate and excite the molecules of the atmosphere. Then, a phase of recombination and relaxation starts. The interest of their study is multiple. In atmospheric chemistry we know that lightening are important sources of NOx in the troposphere, which indirectly influence the concentrations of O3 and OH. We wonder what could be the chemical effects of TLEs in the stratosphere and mesosphere. Experimentally, the HALESIS (High altitude Luminous Events Studied by Infrared Spectro-imagery) project aims to load a spectro-imager in a stratospheric balloon in order to measure atmospheric radiances in the moments following the electrical discharge of a TLE and then, to estimate the concentration of some components of interest (CO2, NO, O3, OH…) with spectrum inversions. In a Defense point of view, some airborne detection or guiding devices are equipped with infrared sensors, which may be disturbed by the TLEs infrared signal. The objective is to provide a tool which will describe the TLE phenomenon from the electric discharge to the detection threw an infrared sensor. To achieve this work we first compute the Non Local Thermodynamic Equilibrium population of a background atmosphere with the code SAMM2. The starting atmosphere comes from the Whole Atmosphere community Climate Model (WACCM). Then, we apply a TLE perturbation to a region of the background atmosphere. To do so we compute the plasma and atmospheric chemistry consecutive to the discharge of a TLE with the codes BOLSIG+ and

  13. Modern observations and models of Solar flares

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gritsyk, Pavel; Somov, Boris

    As well known, that fast particles propagating along flare loop generate bremsstrahlung hard x-ray emission and gyro-synchrotron microwave emission. We present the self-consistent kinetic description of propagation accelerated particles. The key point of this approach is taking into account the effect of reverse current. In our two-dimensional model the electric field of reverse current has the strong influence to the beam of accelerated particles. It decelerates part of the electrons in the beam and turns back other part of them without significant energy loss. The exact analytical solution for the appropriate kinetic equation with Landau collision integral was found. Using derived distribution function of electrons we’ve calculated evolution of their energy spectrum and plasma heating, coronal microwave emission and characteristics of hard x-ray emission in the corona and in the chromosphere. All results were compared with modern high precision space observations.

  14. The Whisper of Deep Basins: Observation & Modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burjanek, J.; Ermert, L. A.; Poggi, V.; Michel, C.; Fäh, D.

    2013-12-01

    Free oscillations of Earth have been used for a long time to retrieve information about the deep Earth's interior. On a much smaller scale, standing waves develop in deep sedimentary basins and can possibly be used in a similar way. The sensitivity of these waves to subsurface properties makes them a potential source of information about the deep basin characteristics. We investigated the sequence of two-dimensional resonance modes occurring in Rhône Valley, a strongly over-deepened, glacially carved basin with a sediment fill reaching up to 900 m thickness. We obtained two synchronous linear-array recordings of ambient vibrations and analysed them with two different processing techniques. First, both 2D resonance frequencies and their corresponding modal shapes were identified by frequency-domain decomposition of the signal cross-spectral density matrix. Second, time-frequency polarization analysis was applied to support the addressing of the modes and to determine the relative contributions of the vertical and horizontal components of the fundamental in-plane mode. Simplified 2-D finite element models were then used to support the interpretation of the observations. We were able to identify several resonance modes including previously unmeasured higher modes at all investigated locations in the valley. Good agreement was found between results of our study and previous studies, between the two processing techniques and between observed and modelled results. Finally, a parametric study was performed to qualitatively assess the sensitivity of the mode's order, shape and frequency to subsurface properties like bedrock geometry, Poisson's ratio and shear wave velocity of the sediments. We concluded that the sequence of modes as they appear by frequency depends strongly on subsurface properties. Therefore addressing of the higher modes can be done reliably only with prior information on the sediment structure.

  15. Model of Deep Non-Volcanic Tremor in Episodic Tremor and Slip Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gershenzon, N. I.; Bambakidis, G.

    2014-12-01

    Bursts of tremor accompany a moving slip pulse in Episodic Tremor and Slip (ETS) events. The sources of this non-volcanic tremor (NVT) are largely unknown. We have developed a model describing the mechanism of NTV generation. According to this model, NTV is a reflection of resonant-type oscillations excited in a fault at certain depth ranges. From a mathematical viewpoint, tremor (phonons) and slip pulses (solitons) are two different solutions of the sine-Gordon equation describing frictional processes inside a fault. In an ETS event, a moving slip pulse generates tremor due to interaction with structural heterogeneities in a fault and to failures of small asperities (see Figure). Observed tremor parameters, such as central frequency and frequency attenuation curve, are associated with fault parameters and conditions, such as elastic modulus, effective normal stress, penetration hardness and friction. Model prediction of NTV frequency content is consistent with observations. In the framework of this model it is possible to explain the complicated pattern of tremor migration, including rapid tremor propagation and reverse tremor migration. Migration along the strike direction is associated with movement of the slip pulse. Rapid tremor propagation in the slip-parallel direction is associated with movement of kinks along a 2D slip pulse. A slip pulse, pinned in some places, can fragment into several pulses, causing tremor associated with some of these pulse fragments to move opposite to the main propagation direction. The model predicts that the frequency content of tremor during an ETS event is slightly different from the frequency content of ambient tremor and tremor triggered by earthquakes. Figure 1. The slip velocity w of a slip pulse in time-space (x-t) coordinates moving in (a) ideal substrate and (b) substrate with a structural heterogeneity. Pulse is driven by constant external shear stress. Figure 1(b) shows that the pulse oscillates about an obstacle

  16. Secondary production of toxic nitropolycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon during the Asian dust event: approached by model simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Inomata, Y.; Kajino, M.; Sato, K.

    2016-12-01

    Nitrated polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (NPAHs) are one of toxic compounds in the atmospheric particles. NPAHs are emitted in the atmosphere through the combustion of fossil fuels such as coal and diesel. Furthermore, it is produced by heterogeneous reactions such as the surface on the mineral dust aerosols. 1-nitoropyrene (1-NP) is one of the most abundant NPAHs and considered as a probable carcinogen. It is found that the production of 1-NP occurred during the heavy Asian dust event in Beijing and Japan. In this study, we estimated production of 1-NP by heterogeneous reactions by using model simulations in Northeast Asia. The model was three dimensional chemical transport model, Regional Air Quality Model for POPs version. The model performance was investigated the comparison with the observations. We focused on heavy Asian dust event observed in Beijing on 18-20 March 2010. Several sensitivity calculations are conducted under the existence of Asian dust in order to investigate the effect of relative humidity and photolysis. On 18-20 March 2010, primary 1-NP concentrations are about 50 fg/m3. Under the existence of the Asian dust, secondary production of 1-NP is estimated to 7 times against the concentrations of primary emission. Horizontal distributions indicate that decrease of Pyr and increase of 1-NP is significant around Beijing in this Asian dust event. Secondary production of 1-NP was large in this area as well as the downwind region such as the East China Sea. It is found that secondary production of 1-NP is minor in dessert region because of lower concentrations of Pyrene (Pyr). Distribution of secondary produced 1-NP varied with concentrations of Pyr, transport of Asian dust. Secondary production of 1-NP in March 2010 was larger than the primary emission of 1-NP, whereas the secondary production was smaller than those of the primary emission in April and May, 2011.

  17. An observational and numerical study of a flash flood event in Eastern Marmara Region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kahraman, A.

    2010-09-01

    Warm season cut-off cyclones over North-western Anatolia frequently triggers storms with heavy precipitation over Marmara and Western Black Sea Region. Since the area is highly urbanized with a deficiency in substructure, an important percentage of these storms result in flash floods, producing severe damage and fatalities. A heavy precipitation case from 5th to 9th of June, 2010 is studied. With the large scale circulation of the cut-off low, the storm system over Northern Anatolia moved Black Sea, and after getting richer in moisture, turned back to land over Eastern Marmara Region resulting more than 100 mm of precipitation in 24 hours. A peak of 77 mm in 6 hours is observed at Istanbul Sabiha Gokcen Airport on 7th of June, 2010. Damage in some buildings and one death occured related with the flash flood. In addition to synoptic charts, satellite data, surface and upper air observations, numerical simulation with WRF-ARW is used to make a mesoscale analysis of the meteorological conditions. Heavy rain ingredients such as conditionally unstability, low level jet and high moisture exist over the region according to the model output. Precipitable water and storm relative helicity values are mature and CAPE is moderate.

  18. An Intrinsic Model for the Polarization Position Angle Swing Observed in QSO 1150+812

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Shan-Jie Qian; Xi-Zhen Zhang

    2004-01-01

    The rapid polarization position angle swing of ~ 180° observed in QSO 1150+812 at 2cm by Kochenov and Gabuzda is quite a regular event. One interesting property of the event is that, during the time of the swing the polarized flux density remained almost constant. We suggest that such an event can be explained in terms of a relativistic thin shock propagating through a uniform helical magnetic field, giving rise to relativistic aberration effects as the transverse field component rotates. The model may also be applicable to other similar events in which variations in polarization are not accompanied by variations in total flux density.

  19. The summer 2012 Greenland heat wave: In situ and remote sensing observations of water vapor isotopic composition during an atmospheric river event

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonne, Jean-Louis; Steen-Larsen, Hans Christian; Risi, Camille; Werner, Martin; Sodemann, Harald; Lacour, Jean-Lionel; Fettweis, Xavier; Cesana, Grégory; Delmotte, Marc; Cattani, Olivier; Vallelonga, Paul; Kjær, Helle Astrid; Clerbaux, Cathy; Sveinbjörnsdóttir, Árny Erla; Masson-Delmotte, Valérie

    2015-04-01

    During 7-12 July 2012, extreme moist and warm conditions occurred over Greenland, leading to widespread surface melt. To investigate the physical processes during the atmospheric moisture transport of this event, we study the water vapor isotopic composition using surface in situ observations in Bermuda Island, South Greenland coast (Ivittuut), and northwest Greenland ice sheet (NEEM), as well as remote sensing observations (Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) instrument on board MetOp-A), depicting propagation of similar surface and midtropospheric humidity and δD signals. Simulations using Lagrangian moisture source diagnostic and water tagging in a regional model showed that Greenland was affected by an atmospheric river transporting moisture from the western subtropical North Atlantic Ocean, which is coherent with observations of snow pit impurities deposited at NEEM. At Ivittuut, surface air temperature, humidity, and δD increases are observed. At NEEM, similar temperature increase is associated with a large and long-lasting ˜100‰δD enrichment and ˜15‰ deuterium excess decrease, thereby reaching Ivittuut level. We assess the simulation of this event in two isotope-enabled atmospheric general circulation models (LMDz-iso and ECHAM5-wiso). LMDz-iso correctly captures the timing of propagation for this event identified in IASI data but depict too gradual variations when compared to surface data. Both models reproduce the surface meteorological and isotopic values during the event but underestimate the background deuterium excess at NEEM. Cloud liquid water content parametrization in LMDz-iso poorly impacts the vapor isotopic composition. Our data demonstrate that during this atmospheric river event the deuterium excess signal is conserved from the moisture source to northwest Greenland.

  20. Reconstructing Methane Emission Events in the Arctic Ocean: Observations from the Past to Present

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panieri, G.; Mienert, J.; Fornari, D. J.; Torres, M. E.; Lepland, A.

    2015-12-01

    Methane hydrates are ice-like crystals that are present along continental margins, occurring in the pore space of deep sediments or as massive blocks near the seafloor. They form in high pressure and low temperature environments constrained by thermodynamic stability, and supply of methane. In the Arctic, gas hydrates are abundant, and the methane released by their destabilization can affect local to global carbon budgets and cycles, ocean acidification, and benthic community survival. With the aim to locate in space and time the periodicity of methane venting, CAGE is engaged in a vast research program in the Arctic, a component of which comprises the analyses of numerous sediment cores and correlative geophysical and geochemical data from different areas. Here we present results from combined analyses of biogenic carbonate archives along the western Svalbard Margin, which reveal past methane venting events in this region. The reconstruction of paleo-methane discharge is complicated by precipitation of secondary carbonate on foraminifera shells, driven by an increase in alkalinity during anaerobic oxidation of methane (AOM). The biogeochemical processes involved in methane cycling and processes that drive methane migration affect the depth where AOM occurs, with relevance to secondary carbonate formation. Our results show the value and complexity of separating primary vs. secondary signals in bioarchives with relevance to understanding fluid-burial history in methane seep provinces. Results from our core analyses are integrated with observations made during the CAGE15-2 cruise in May 2015, when we deployed a towed vehicle equipped with camera, multicore and water sampling capabilities. The instrument design was based on the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI) MISO TowCam sled equipped with a deep-sea digital camera and CTD real-time system. Sediment sampling was visually-guided using this system. In one of the pockmarks along the Vestnesa Ridge where high

  1. Modelling the descent of nitric oxide during the elevated stratopause event of January 2013

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orsolini, Yvan J.; Limpasuvan, Varavut; Pérot, Kristell; Espy, Patrick; Hibbins, Robert; Lossow, Stefan; Raaholt Larsson, Katarina; Murtagh, Donal

    2017-03-01

    Using simulations with a whole-atmosphere chemistry-climate model nudged by meteorological analyses, global satellite observations of nitrogen oxide (NO) and water vapour by the Sub-Millimetre Radiometer instrument (SMR), of temperature by the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS), as well as local radar observations, this study examines the recent major stratospheric sudden warming accompanied by an elevated stratopause event (ESE) that occurred in January 2013. We examine dynamical processes during the ESE, including the role of planetary wave, gravity wave and tidal forcing on the initiation of the descent in the mesosphere-lower thermosphere (MLT) and its continuation throughout the mesosphere and stratosphere, as well as the impact of model eddy diffusion. We analyse the transport of NO and find the model underestimates the large descent of NO compared to SMR observations. We demonstrate that the discrepancy arises abruptly in the MLT region at a time when the resolved wave forcing and the planetary wave activity increase, just before the elevated stratopause reforms. The discrepancy persists despite doubling the model eddy diffusion. While the simulations reproduce an enhancement of the semi-diurnal tide following the onset of the 2013 SSW, corroborating new meteor radar observations at high northern latitudes over Trondheim (63.4°N), the modelled tidal contribution to the forcing of the mean meridional circulation and to the descent is a small portion of the resolved wave forcing, and lags it by about ten days.

  2. A Simple Ideal MHD Model of Vertical Disruption Events in Tokamaks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fitzpatrick, Richard

    2008-11-01

    A simple model of axisymmetric vertical disruption events (VDEs) in tokamaks is presented in which the halo current force exerted on the vacuum vessel is calculated directly from linear, marginally stable, ideal-magnetohydrodynamical (MHD) stability analysis. The basic premise of the model is that the halo current force modifies pressure balance at the edge of the plasma, and therefore also modifies ideal-MHD plasma stability. In order to prevent the ideal vertical instability, responsible for the VDE, from growing on the very short Alfv'en time- scale, the halo current force must adjust itself such that the instability is rendered marginally stable. The model predicts halo currents which are similar in magnitude to those observed experimentally. An approximate non-axisymmetric version of the model is developed in order to calculate the toroidal peaking factor of the halo current force.

  3. A simple ideal magnetohydrodynamical model of vertical disruption events in tokamaks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fitzpatrick, R.

    2009-01-01

    A simple model of axisymmetric vertical disruption events (VDEs) in tokamaks is presented in which the halo current force exerted on the vacuum vessel is calculated directly from linear, marginally stable, ideal-magnetohydrodynamical (MHD) stability analysis. The basic premise of the model is that the halo current force modifies pressure balance at the edge of the plasma, and therefore also modifies ideal-MHD plasma stability. In order to prevent the ideal vertical instability, responsible for the VDE, from growing on the very short Alfvén time scale, the halo current force must adjust itself such that the instability is rendered marginally stable. The model predicts halo currents which are similar in magnitude to those observed experimentally. An approximate nonaxisymmetric version of the model is developed in order to calculate the toroidal peaking factor for the halo current force.

  4. SMAP observes flooding from land to sea: The Texas event of 2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fournier, Severine; Reager, John; Lee, Tong; Vazquez-Cuervo, Jorge; David, Cedric; Gierach, Michelle

    2017-04-01

    Floods can have damaging impacts on both land and sea, yet studies of flooding events tend to focus on only one side of the land/sea continuum. Here we present the first two-sided analysis, focusing on the May 2015 severe flood in Texas. Our investigation benefits from simultaneous measurements of land-surface soil moisture and sea surface salinity from NASA's recent Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission as well as ancillary data. We report the comprehensive chronology of the flood event: above average rainfall preceding the flood caused soils to saturate; record rainfall then generated record river discharge; subsequently, an unusual freshwater plume associated with anomalous ocean currents formed in the north-central Gulf of Mexico. Together with the Mississippi River plume further east, the Texas plume created a rare "horseshoe" pattern that have potential biogeochemical implications. Such integrated land/sea analysis of flood evolution can improve impact assessments of future extreme flooding events.

  5. The 26 July 2005 heavy rainfall event over Mumbai: numerical modeling aspects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sahany, Sandeep; Venugopal, V.; Nanjundiah, Ravi S.

    2010-12-01

    The performance of the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) in simulating an extreme rainfall event is evaluated, and subsequently the physical mechanisms leading to its initiation and sustenance are explored. As a case study, the heavy precipitation event that led to 65 cm of rainfall accumulation in a span of around 6 h (1430 LT-2030 LT) over Santacruz (Mumbai, India), on 26 July, 2005, is selected. Three sets of numerical experiments have been conducted. The first set of experiments (EXP1) consisted of a four-member ensemble, and was carried out in an idealized mode with a model grid spacing of 1 km. In spite of the idealized framework, signatures of heavy rainfall were seen in two of the ensemble members. The second set (EXP2) consisted of a five-member ensemble, with a four-level one-way nested integration and grid spacing of 54, 18, 6 and 1 km. The model was able to simulate a realistic spatial structure with the 54, 18, and 6 km grids; however, with the 1 km grid, the simulations were dominated by the prescribed boundary conditions. The third and final set of experiments (EXP3) consisted of a five-member ensemble, with a four-level one-way nesting and grid spacing of 54, 18, 6, and 2 km. The Scaled Lagged Average Forecasting (SLAF) methodology was employed to construct the ensemble members. The model simulations in this case were closer to observations, as compared to EXP2. Specifically, among all experiments, the timing of maximum rainfall, the abrupt increase in rainfall intensities, which was a major feature of this event, and the rainfall intensities simulated in EXP3 (at 6 km resolution) were closest to observations. Analysis of the physical mechanisms causing the initiation and sustenance of the event reveals some interesting aspects. Deep convection was found to be initiated by mid-tropospheric convergence that extended to lower levels during the later stage. In addition, there was a high negative vertical gradient of equivalent potential

  6. First simultaneous microlensing observations by two space telescopes: $Spitzer$ & $Swift$ reveal a brown dwarf in event OGLE-2015-BLG-1319

    CERN Document Server

    Shvartzvald, Y; Udalski, A; Gould, A; Sumi, T; Street, R A; Novati, S Calchi; Hundertmark, M; Bozza, V; Beichman, C; Bryden, G; Carey, S; Drummond, J; Fausnaugh, M; Gaudi, B S; Henderson, C B; Tan, T G; Wibking, B; Pogge, R W; Yee, J C; Zhu, W; Tsapras, Y; Bachelet, E; Dominik, M; Bramich, D M; Cassan, A; Jaimes, R Figuera; Horne, K; Ranc, C; Schmidt, R; Snodgrass, C; Wambsganss, J; Steele, I A; Menzies, J; Mao, S; Poleski, R; Pawlak, M; Szymański, M K; Skowron, J; Mróz, P; Kozłowski, S; Wyrzykowski, Ł; Pietrukowicz, P; Soszyński, I; Ulaczyk, K; Abe, F; Asakura, Y; Barry, R K; Bennett, D P; Bhattacharya, A; Bond, I A; Freeman, M; Hirao, Y; Itow, Y; Koshimoto, N; Li, M C A; Ling, C H; Masuda, K; Fukui, A; Matsubara, Y; Muraki, Y; Nagakane, M; Nishioka, T; Ohnishi, K; Oyokawa, H; Rattenbury, N J; Saito, To; Sharan, A; Sullivan, D J; Suzuki, D; Tristram, P J; Yonehara, A; Jørgensen, U G; Burgdorf, M J; Ciceri, S; D'Ago, G; Evans, D F; Hinse, T C; Kains, N; Kerins, E; Korhonen, H; Mancini, L; Popovas, A; Rabus, M; Rahvar, S; Scarpetta, G; Skottfelt, J; Southworth, J; Peixinho, N; Verma, P; Sbarufatti, B; Kennea, J A; Gehrels, N

    2016-01-01

    Simultaneous observations of microlensing events from multiple locations allow for the breaking of degeneracies between the physical properties of the lensing system, specifically by exploring different regions of the lens plane and by directly measuring the "microlens parallax". We report the discovery of a 30-55$M_J$ brown dwarf orbiting a K dwarf in microlensing event OGLE-2015-BLG-1319. The system is located at a distance of $\\sim$5 kpc toward the Galactic bulge. The event was observed by several ground-based groups as well as by $Spitzer$ and $Swift$, allowing the measurement of the physical properties. However, the event is still subject to an 8-fold degeneracy, in particular the well-known close-wide degeneracy, and thus the projected separation between the two lens components is either $\\sim$0.25 AU or $\\sim$45 AU. This is the first microlensing event observed by $Swift$, with the UVOT camera. We study the region of microlensing parameter space to which $Swift$ is sensitive, finding that while for thi...

  7. VLT-UVES observations of the Balmer line variations of eta Carinae during the 2003 spectroscopic event

    CERN Document Server

    Weis, K; Bomans, D J; Davidson, K; Gull, T R; Humphreys, R M; Weis, Kerstin; Stahl, Otmar; Bomans, Dominik J.; Davidson, Kris; Gull, Theodore R.; Humphreys, Roberta M.

    2004-01-01

    We present high spectral resolution echelle observations of the Balmer line variations during the 2003.5 ``spectroscopic event'' of eta Carinae. Spectra have been recorded of both eta Carinae and the Homunculus at the FOS4 position in its SE lobe. This spot shows a reflected stellar spectrum which is less contaminated by nebular emission lines than ground-based observations of the central object itself. Our observations show that the spectroscopic event is much less pronounced at this position than when seen directly on eta Car using HST/STIS. Assuming that the reflected spectrum is indeed latitude dependent this indicates that the spectral changes during the event seen pole-on (FOS4) are different from those closer to the equator (directly on the star). In contrast to the spectrum of the star, the scattered spectrum of FOS4 always shows pronounced P Cygni absorption with little variation across the ``spectroscopic event''. After that event an additional high-velocity absorption component appears. The emissio...

  8. Bayesian modeling of recombination events in bacterial populations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dowson Chris

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background We consider the discovery of recombinant segments jointly with their origins within multilocus DNA sequences from bacteria representing heterogeneous populations of fairly closely related species. The currently available methods for recombination detection capable of probabilistic characterization of uncertainty have a limited applicability in practice as the number of strains in a data set increases. Results We introduce a Bayesian spatial structural model representing the continuum of origins over sites within the observed sequences, including a probabilistic characterization of uncertainty related to the origin of any particular site. To enable a statistically accurate and practically feasible approach to the analysis of large-scale data sets representing a single genus, we have developed a novel software tool (BRAT, Bayesian Recombination Tracker implementing the model and the corresponding learning algorithm, which is capable of identifying the posterior optimal structure and to estimate the marginal posterior probabilities of putative origins over the sites. Conclusion A multitude of challenging simulation scenarios and an analysis of real data from seven housekeeping genes of 120 strains of genus Burkholderia are used to illustrate the possibilities offered by our approach. The software is freely available for download at URL http://web.abo.fi/fak/mnf//mate/jc/software/brat.html.

  9. Relational event models for longitudinal network data with an application to interhospital patient transfers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vu, Duy; Lomi, Alessandro; Mascia, Daniele; Pallotti, Francesca

    2017-06-30

    The main objective of this paper is to introduce and illustrate relational event models, a new class of statistical models for the analysis of time-stamped data with complex temporal and relational dependencies. We outline the main differences between recently proposed relational event models and more conventional network models based on the graph-theoretic formalism typically adopted in empirical studies of social networks. Our main contribution involves the definition and implementation of a marked point process extension of currently available models. According to this approach, the sequence of events of interest is decomposed into two components: (a) event time and (b) event destination. This decomposition transforms the problem of selection of event destination in relational event models into a conditional multinomial logistic regression problem. The main advantages of this formulation are the possibility of controlling for the effect of event-specific data and a significant reduction in the estimation time of currently available relational event models. We demonstrate the empirical value of the model in an analysis of interhospital patient transfers within a regional community of health care organizations. We conclude with a discussion of how the models we presented help to overcome some the limitations of statistical models for networks that are currently available. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  10. Bayesian Classification of Disaster Events on the Basis of Icon Messages of Observers.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rothkrantz, L.; Fitrianie, S.

    2015-01-01

    During major disaster events, human operators in a crisis center will be overloaded with a flood of phone calls. As an increasing number of people in and around big cities do not master the native language, the need for automated systems that automatically process the context and content of informat

  11. Bayesian Classification of Disaster Events on the Basis of Icon Messages of Observers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rothkrantz, L.J.M.; Fitrianie, S.

    2015-01-01

    During major disaster events, human operators in a crisis center will be overloaded with under-stress a flood of phone calls. As an increasing number of people in and around big cities do not master the native language, the need for automated systems that automatically process the context and conten

  12. Observation of anisotropic event shapes and transverse flow in ultrarelativistic Au+Au collisions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barrette, J.; Bellwied, R.; Bennett, S.; Braun-Munzinger, P.; Cleland, W.E.; Clemen, M.; Cole, J.; Cormier, T.M.; David, G.; Dee, J.; Dietzsch, O.; Drigert, M.; Gilbert, S.; Hall, J.R.; Hemmick, T.K.; Herrmann, N.; Hong, B.; Jiang, C.L.; Kwon, Y.; Lacasse, R.; Lukaszew, A.; Li, Q.; Ludlam, T.W.; McCorkle, S.; Mark, S.K.; Matheus, R.; O' Brien, E.; Panitkin, S.; Piazza, T.; Pruneau, C.; Rao, M.N.; Rosati, M.; daSilva, N.C.; Sedykh, S.; Sonnadara, U.; Stachel, J.; Takai, H.; Takagui, E.M.; Voloshin, S.; Wang, G.; Wessels, J.P.; Woody, C.L.; Xu, N.; Zhang, Y.; Zhang, Z.; Zou, C. (Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton, New York 11973 (United States) Gesellschaft fuer Schwerionenforschung, Darmstadt (Germany) Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, Idaho Falls, Idaho 83402 (United States) McGill Univesity, Montreal, H3A 2T8 (Canada) University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 15260 (United States) SUNY, Stony Brook, New York, 11794 (United States) University of Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo (B; (E877 Collaboration)

    1994-11-07

    Event shapes for Au + Au collisions at 11.4 GeV/[ital c] per nucleon were studied over nearly the full solid angle with the E877 apparatus. The analysis was performed by Fourier expansion of azimuthal distributions of the transverse energy ([ital E][sub [ital T

  13. Water quantity and quality response of a green roof to storm events: Experimental and monitoring observations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carpenter, Corey M G; Todorov, Dimitar; Driscoll, Charles T; Montesdeoca, Mario

    2016-11-01

    Syracuse, New York is working under a court-ordered agreement to limit combined sewer overflows (CSO) to local surface waters. Green infrastructure technologies, including green roofs, are being implemented as part of a CSO abatement strategy and to develop co-benefits of diminished stormwater runoff, including decreased loading of contaminants to the wastewater system and surface waters. The objective of this study was to examine the quantity and quality of discharge associated with precipitation events over an annual cycle from a green roof in Syracuse, NY and to compare measurements from this monitoring program with results from a roof irrigation experiment. Wet deposition, roof drainage, and water quality were measured for 87 storm events during an approximately 12 month period over 2011-2012. Water and nutrient (total phosphorus, total nitrogen, and dissolved organic carbon) mass balances were conducted on an event basis to evaluate retention annually and during the growing and non-growing seasons. These results are compared with a hydrological manipulation experiment, which comprised of artificially watering of the roof. Loadings of nutrients were calculated for experimental and actual storms using the concentration of nutrients and the flow data of water discharging the roof. The green roof was effective in retaining precipitation quantity from storm events (mean percent retention 96.8%, SD = 2.7%, n = 87), although the relative fraction of water retained decreased with increases in the size of the event. There was no difference in water retention of the green roof for the growing and non-growing seasons. Drainage waters exhibited high concentration of nutrients during the warm temperature growing season, particularly total nitrogen and dissolved organic carbon. Overall, nutrient losses were low because of the strong retention of water. However, there was marked variation in the retention of nutrients by season due to variations in concentrations in roof

  14. Time is of the essence: an application of a relational event model for animal social networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patison, K P; Quintane, E; Swain, D L; Robins, G; Pattison, P

    Understanding how animal social relationships are created, maintained and severed has ecological and evolutionary significance. Animal social relationships are inferred from observations of interactions between animals; the pattern of interaction over time indicates the existence (or absence) of a social relationship. Autonomous behavioural recording technologies are increasingly being used to collect continuous interaction data on animal associations. However, continuous data sequences are typically aggregated to represent a relationship as part of one (or several) pictures of the network of relations among animals, in a way that parallels human social networks. This transformation entails loss of information about interaction timing and sequence, which are particularly important to understand the formation of relationships or their disruption. Here, we describe a new statistical model, termed the relational event model, that enables the analysis of fine-grained animal association data as a continuous time sequence without requiring aggregation of the data. We apply the model to a unique data set of interaction between familiar and unfamiliar steers during a series of 36 experiments to investigate the process of social disruption and relationship formation. We show how the model provides key insights into animal behaviour in terms of relationship building, the integration process of unfamiliar animals and group building dynamics. The relational event model is well suited to data structures that are common to animal behavioural studies and can therefore be applied to a range of social interaction data to understand animal social dynamics.

  15. Infinite hidden Markov models for unusual-event detection in video.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pruteanu-Malinici, Iulian; Carin, Lawrence

    2008-05-01

    We address the problem of unusual-event detection in a video sequence. Invariant subspace analysis (ISA) is used to extract features from the video, and the time-evolving properties of these features are modeled via an infinite hidden Markov model (iHMM), which is trained using "normal"/"typical" video. The iHMM retains a full posterior density function on all model parameters, including the number of underlying HMM states. Anomalies (unusual events) are detected subsequen