Evolution of Precipitation Structure During the November DYNAMO MJO Event: Cloud-Resolving Model Intercomparison and Cross Validation Using Radar Observations

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Xiaowen; Janiga, Matthew A.; Wang, Shuguang; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Rowe, Angela; Xu, Weixin; Liu, Chuntao; Matsui, Toshihisa; Zhang, Chidong

2018-04-01

Evolution of precipitation structures are simulated and compared with radar observations for the November Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) event during the DYNAmics of the MJO (DYNAMO) field campaign. Three ground-based, ship-borne, and spaceborne precipitation radars and three cloud-resolving models (CRMs) driven by observed large-scale forcing are used to study precipitation structures at different locations over the central equatorial Indian Ocean. Convective strength is represented by 0-dBZ echo-top heights, and convective organization by contiguous 17-dBZ areas. The multi-radar and multi-model framework allows for more stringent model validations. The emphasis is on testing models' ability to simulate subtle differences observed at different radar sites when the MJO event passed through. The results show that CRMs forced by site-specific large-scale forcing can reproduce not only common features in cloud populations but also subtle variations observed by different radars. The comparisons also revealed common deficiencies in CRM simulations where they underestimate radar echo-top heights for the strongest convection within large, organized precipitation features. Cross validations with multiple radars and models also enable quantitative comparisons in CRM sensitivity studies using different large-scale forcing, microphysical schemes and parameters, resolutions, and domain sizes. In terms of radar echo-top height temporal variations, many model sensitivity tests have better correlations than radar/model comparisons, indicating robustness in model performance on this aspect. It is further shown that well-validated model simulations could be used to constrain uncertainties in observed echo-top heights when the low-resolution surveillance scanning strategy is used.

PULSAR OBSERVATIONS OF EXTREME SCATTERING EVENTS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Coles, W. A.; Kerr, M.; Shannon, R. M.; Hobbs, G. B.; Manchester, R. N.; Dai, S.; Ravi, V.; Reardon, D.; Toomey, L.; Zhu, X. J.; You, X.-P.; Bailes, M.; Straten, W. van; Bhat, N. D. R.; Burke-Spolaor, S.; Keith, M. J.; Levin, Y.; Osłowski, S.; Wang, J. B.; Wen, L.

2015-01-01

Extreme scattering events (ESEs) in the interstellar medium (ISM) were first observed in regular flux measurements of compact extragalactic sources. They are characterized by a flux variation over a period of weeks, suggesting the passage of a “diverging plasma lens” across the line of sight (LOS). Modeling the refraction of such a lens indicates that the structure size must be of the order of AU and the electron density of the order of 10s of cm −3 . Similar structures have been observed in measurements of pulsar intensity scintillation and group delay. Here we report observations of two ESEs, showing increases in both intensity scintillation and dispersion made with the Parkes Pulsar Timing Array. These allow us to make more complete models of the ESE, including an estimate of the “outer-scale” of the turbulence in the plasma lens. These observations clearly show that the ESE structure is fully turbulent on an AU scale. They provide some support for the idea that the structures are extended along the LOS, such as would be the case for a scattering shell. The dispersion measurements also show a variety of AU scale structures that would not be called ESEs, yet involve electron density variations typical of ESEs and likely have the same origin

Pulsar Observations of Extreme Scattering Events

Science.gov (United States)

Coles, W. A.; Kerr, M.; Shannon, R. M.; Hobbs, G. B.; Manchester, R. N.; You, X.-P.; Bailes, M.; Bhat, N. D. R.; Burke-Spolaor, S.; Dai, S.; Keith, M. J.; Levin, Y.; Osłowski, S.; Ravi, V.; Reardon, D.; Toomey, L.; van Straten, W.; Wang, J. B.; Wen, L.; Zhu, X. J.

2015-08-01

Extreme scattering events (ESEs) in the interstellar medium (ISM) were first observed in regular flux measurements of compact extragalactic sources. They are characterized by a flux variation over a period of weeks, suggesting the passage of a “diverging plasma lens” across the line of sight (LOS). Modeling the refraction of such a lens indicates that the structure size must be of the order of AU and the electron density of the order of 10s of cm-3. Similar structures have been observed in measurements of pulsar intensity scintillation and group delay. Here we report observations of two ESEs, showing increases in both intensity scintillation and dispersion made with the Parkes Pulsar Timing Array. These allow us to make more complete models of the ESE, including an estimate of the “outer-scale” of the turbulence in the plasma lens. These observations clearly show that the ESE structure is fully turbulent on an AU scale. They provide some support for the idea that the structures are extended along the LOS, such as would be the case for a scattering shell. The dispersion measurements also show a variety of AU scale structures that would not be called ESEs, yet involve electron density variations typical of ESEs and likely have the same origin.

PULSAR OBSERVATIONS OF EXTREME SCATTERING EVENTS

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Coles, W. A. [ECE Department, University of California at San Diego, La Jolla, CA, 92093-0407 (United States); Kerr, M.; Shannon, R. M.; Hobbs, G. B.; Manchester, R. N.; Dai, S.; Ravi, V.; Reardon, D.; Toomey, L.; Zhu, X. J. [ATNF, CSIRO Astronomy and Space Science, P.O. Box 76, Epping, NSW 1710 (Australia); You, X.-P. [Southwest University, Chongqing (China); Bailes, M.; Straten, W. van [Centre for Astrophysics and Supercomputing, Swinburne University of Technology, P.O. Box 218, Hawthorn, VIC 3122 (Australia); Bhat, N. D. R. [International Centre for Radio Astronomy Research, Curtin University, Bentley, WA 6102 (Australia); Burke-Spolaor, S. [California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, 1200 E California Boulevard, CA 91125 (United States); Keith, M. J. [Jodrell Bank Centre for Astrophysics, School of Physics and Astronomy, The University of Manchester, Manchester M13 9PL (United Kingdom); Levin, Y. [Monash Center for Astrophysics, School of Physics and Astronomy, Monash University, Vic 3800 (Australia); Osłowski, S. [Max-Planck-Institut für Radioastronomie, Auf dem Hügel 69, D-53121 Bonn (Germany); Wang, J. B. [Xinjiang Astronomical Observatory, Chinese Academy of Science, 150 Science 1-Street, Urumqi, Xinjiang, 830011 (China); Wen, L., E-mail: bcoles@ucsd.edu [University of Western Australia, 35 Stirling Highway, Crawley, WA 6009 (Australia)

2015-08-01

Extreme scattering events (ESEs) in the interstellar medium (ISM) were first observed in regular flux measurements of compact extragalactic sources. They are characterized by a flux variation over a period of weeks, suggesting the passage of a “diverging plasma lens” across the line of sight (LOS). Modeling the refraction of such a lens indicates that the structure size must be of the order of AU and the electron density of the order of 10s of cm{sup −3}. Similar structures have been observed in measurements of pulsar intensity scintillation and group delay. Here we report observations of two ESEs, showing increases in both intensity scintillation and dispersion made with the Parkes Pulsar Timing Array. These allow us to make more complete models of the ESE, including an estimate of the “outer-scale” of the turbulence in the plasma lens. These observations clearly show that the ESE structure is fully turbulent on an AU scale. They provide some support for the idea that the structures are extended along the LOS, such as would be the case for a scattering shell. The dispersion measurements also show a variety of AU scale structures that would not be called ESEs, yet involve electron density variations typical of ESEs and likely have the same origin.

Modeling Documents with Event Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Longhui Wang

2015-08-01

Full Text Available Currently deep learning has made great breakthroughs in visual and speech processing, mainly because it draws lessons from the hierarchical mode that brain deals with images and speech. In the field of NLP, a topic model is one of the important ways for modeling documents. Topic models are built on a generative model that clearly does not match the way humans write. In this paper, we propose Event Model, which is unsupervised and based on the language processing mechanism of neurolinguistics, to model documents. In Event Model, documents are descriptions of concrete or abstract events seen, heard, or sensed by people and words are objects in the events. Event Model has two stages: word learning and dimensionality reduction. Word learning is to learn semantics of words based on deep learning. Dimensionality reduction is the process that representing a document as a low dimensional vector by a linear mode that is completely different from topic models. Event Model achieves state-of-the-art results on document retrieval tasks.

Event-Based Conceptual Modeling

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bækgaard, Lars

2009-01-01

The purpose of the paper is to obtain insight into and provide practical advice for event-based conceptual modeling. We analyze a set of event concepts and use the results to formulate a conceptual event model that is used to identify guidelines for creation of dynamic process models and static...... information models. We characterize events as short-duration processes that have participants, consequences, and properties, and that may be modeled in terms of information structures. The conceptual event model is used to characterize a variety of event concepts and it is used to illustrate how events can...... be used to integrate dynamic modeling of processes and static modeling of information structures. The results are unique in the sense that no other general event concept has been used to unify a similar broad variety of seemingly incompatible event concepts. The general event concept can be used...

Analyzing time-ordered event data with missed observations

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Dokter, Adriaan M.; van Loon, E. Emiel; Fokkema, Wimke; Lameris, Thomas K.; Nolet, Bart A.; van der Jeugd, Henk P.

2017-01-01

A common problem with observational datasets is that not all events of interest may be detected. For example, observing animals in the wild can difficult when animals move, hide, or cannot be closely approached. We consider time series of events recorded in conditions where events are occasionally

Event-Based Conceptual Modeling

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bækgaard, Lars

The paper demonstrates that a wide variety of event-based modeling approaches are based on special cases of the same general event concept, and that the general event concept can be used to unify the otherwise unrelated fields of information modeling and process modeling. A set of event......-based modeling approaches are analyzed and the results are used to formulate a general event concept that can be used for unifying the seemingly unrelated event concepts. Events are characterized as short-duration processes that have participants, consequences, and properties, and that may be modeled in terms...... of information structures. The general event concept can be used to guide systems analysis and design and to improve modeling approaches....

Isotropic events observed with a borehole array in the Chelungpu fault zone, Taiwan.

Science.gov (United States)

Ma, Kuo-Fong; Lin, Yen-Yu; Lee, Shiann-Jong; Mori, Jim; Brodsky, Emily E

2012-07-27

Shear failure is the dominant mode of earthquake-causing rock failure along faults. High fluid pressure can also potentially induce rock failure by opening cavities and cracks, but an active example of this process has not been directly observed in a fault zone. Using borehole array data collected along the low-stress Chelungpu fault zone, Taiwan, we observed several small seismic events (I-type events) in a fluid-rich permeable zone directly below the impermeable slip zone of the 1999 moment magnitude 7.6 Chi-Chi earthquake. Modeling of the events suggests an isotropic, nonshear source mechanism likely associated with natural hydraulic fractures. These seismic events may be associated with the formation of veins and other fluid features often observed in rocks surrounding fault zones and may be similar to artificially induced hydraulic fracturing.

CATASTROPHIC EVENTS MODELING

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ciumas Cristina

2013-07-01

Full Text Available This paper presents the emergence and evolution of catastrophe models (cat models. Starting with the present context of extreme weather events and features of catastrophic risk (cat risk we’ll make a chronological illustration from a theoretical point of view of the main steps taken for building such models. In this way the importance of interdisciplinary can be observed. The first cat model considered contains three modules. For each of these indentified modules: hazard, vulnerability and financial losses a detailed overview and also an exemplification of a potential case of an earthquake that measures more than 7 on Richter scale occurring nowadays in Bucharest will be provided. The key areas exposed to earthquake in Romania will be identified. Then, based on past catastrophe data and taking into account present conditions of housing stock, insurance coverage and the population of Bucharest the impact will be quantified by determining potential losses. In order to accomplish this work we consider a scenario with data representing average values for: dwelling’s surface, location, finishing works. On each step we’ll make a reference to the earthquake on March 4 1977 to see what would happen today if a similar event occurred. The value of Bucharest housing stock will be determined taking firstly the market value, then the replacement value and ultimately the real value to quantify potential damages. Through this approach we can find the insurance coverage of potential losses and also the uncovered gap. A solution that may be taken into account by public authorities, for example by Bucharest City Hall will be offered: in case such an event occurs the impossibility of paying compensations to insured people, rebuilding infrastructure and public buildings and helping the suffering persons should be avoided. An actively public-private partnership should be created between government authorities, the Natural Disaster Insurance Pool, private

Multiple simultaneous event model for radiation carcinogenesis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Baum, J.W.

1976-01-01

A mathematical model is proposed which postulates that cancer induction is a multi-event process, that these events occur naturally, usually one at a time in any cell, and that radiation frequently causes two of these events to occur simultaneously. Microdosimetric considerations dictate that for high LET radiations the simultaneous events are associated with a single particle or track. The model predicts: (a) linear dose-effect relations for early times after irradiation with small doses, (b) approximate power functions of dose (i.e. Dsup(x)) having exponent less than one for populations of mixed age examined at short times after irradiation with small doses, (c) saturation of effect at either long times after irradiation with small doses or for all times after irradiation with large doses, and (d) a net increase in incidence which is dependent on age of observation but independent of age at irradiation. Data of Vogel, for neutron induced mammary tumors in rats, are used to illustrate the validity of the formulation. This model provides a quantitative framework to explain several unexpected results obtained by Vogel. It also provides a logical framework to explain the dose-effect relations observed in the Japanese survivors of the atomic bombs. (author)

Physics and observations of tidal disruption events

Science.gov (United States)

Mangalam, Arun; Mageshwaran, Tamilan

2018-04-01

We describe a model of tidal disruption events (TDEs) with input physical parameters that include the black hole (BH) mass M•, the specific orbital energy E, the angular momentum J, the star mass M⊙ and radius R⊙. We calculate the rise time of the TDEs, the peak bolometric luminosity in terms of these physical parameters and a typical light curve of TDEs for various All Sky Survey (ASS) and Deep Sky Survey (DSS) missions. We then derive the expected detection rates and discuss the follow up of TDEs through observations in various spectral bands from X-rays to radio wavelengths.

Dust storm events over Delhi: verification of dust AOD forecasts with satellite and surface observations

Science.gov (United States)

Singh, Aditi; Iyengar, Gopal R.; George, John P.

2016-05-01

Thar desert located in northwest part of India is considered as one of the major dust source. Dust storms originate in Thar desert during pre-monsoon season, affects large part of Indo-Gangetic plains. High dust loading causes the deterioration of the ambient air quality and degradation in visibility. Present study focuses on the identification of dust events and verification of the forecast of dust events over Delhi and western part of IG Plains, during the pre-monsoon season of 2015. Three dust events have been identified over Delhi during the study period. For all the selected days, Terra-MODIS AOD at 550 nm are found close to 1.0, while AURA-OMI AI shows high values. Dust AOD forecasts from NCMRWF Unified Model (NCUM) for the three selected dust events are verified against satellite (MODIS) and ground based observations (AERONET). Comparison of observed AODs at 550 nm from MODIS with NCUM predicted AODs reveals that NCUM is able to predict the spatial and temporal distribution of dust AOD, in these cases. Good correlation (~0.67) is obtained between the NCUM predicted dust AODs and location specific observations available from AERONET. Model under-predicted the AODs as compared to the AERONET observations. This may be mainly because the model account for only dust and no anthropogenic activities are considered. The results of the present study emphasize the requirement of more realistic representation of local dust emission in the model both of natural and anthropogenic origin, to improve the forecast of dust from NCUM during the dust events.

ISOMER: Informative Segment Observations for Multimedia Event Recounting

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Sun, C.; Burns, B.; Nevatia, R.; Snoek, C.; Bolles, B.; Myers, G.; Wang, W.; Yeh, E.

2014-01-01

This paper describes a system for multimedia event detection and recounting. The goal is to detect a high level event class in unconstrained web videos and generate event oriented summarization for display to users. For this purpose, we detect informative segments and collect observations for them,

Experimental observation of 3-D, impulsive reconnection events in a laboratory plasma

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dorfman, S.; Ji, H.; Yamada, M.; Yoo, J.; Lawrence, E.; Myers, C.; Tharp, T. D. [Center for Magnetic Self-Organization, Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory, Princeton, New Jersey 08543 (United States)

2014-01-15

Fast, impulsive reconnection is commonly observed in laboratory, space, and astrophysical plasmas. In this work, impulsive, local, 3-D reconnection is identified for the first time in a laboratory current sheet. The two-fluid, impulsive reconnection events observed on the Magnetic Reconnection Experiment (MRX) [Yamada et al., Phys Plasmas 4, 1936 (1997)] cannot be explained by 2-D models and are therefore fundamentally three-dimensional. Several signatures of flux ropes are identified with these events; 3-D high current density regions with O-point structure form during a slow buildup period that precedes a fast disruption of the reconnecting current layer. The observed drop in the reconnection current and spike in the reconnection rate during the disruption are due to ejection of these flux ropes from the layer. Underscoring the 3-D nature of the events, strong out-of-plane gradients in both the density and reconnecting magnetic field are found to play a key role in this process. Electromagnetic fluctuations in the lower hybrid frequency range are observed to peak at the disruption time; however, they are not the key physics responsible for the impulsive phenomena observed. Important features of the disruption dynamics cannot be explained by an anomalous resistivity model. An important discrepancy in the layer width and force balance between the collisionless regime of MRX and kinetic simulations is also revisited. The wider layers observed in MRX may be due to the formation of flux ropes with a wide range of sizes; consistent with this hypothesis, flux rope signatures are observed down to the smallest scales resolved by the diagnostics. Finally, a 3-D two-fluid model is proposed to explain how the observed out-of-plane variation may lead to a localized region of enhanced reconnection that spreads in the direction of the out-of-plane electron flow, ejecting flux ropes from the layer in a 3-D manner.

Observed and modelled effects of auroral precipitation on the thermal ionospheric plasma: comparing the MICA and Cascades2 sounding rocket events

Science.gov (United States)

Lynch, K. A.; Gayetsky, L.; Fernandes, P. A.; Zettergren, M. D.; Lessard, M.; Cohen, I. J.; Hampton, D. L.; Ahrns, J.; Hysell, D. L.; Powell, S.; Miceli, R. J.; Moen, J. I.; Bekkeng, T.

2012-12-01

Auroral precipitation can modify the ionospheric thermal plasma through a variety of processes. We examine and compare the events seen by two recent auroral sounding rockets carrying in situ thermal plasma instrumentation. The Cascades2 sounding rocket (March 2009, Poker Flat Research Range) traversed a pre-midnight poleward boundary intensification (PBI) event distinguished by a stationary Alfvenic curtain of field-aligned precipitation. The MICA sounding rocket (February 2012, Poker Flat Research Range) traveled through irregular precipitation following the passage of a strong westward-travelling surge. Previous modelling of the ionospheric effects of auroral precipitation used a one-dimensional model, TRANSCAR, which had a simplified treatment of electric fields and did not have the benefit of in situ thermal plasma data. This new study uses a new two-dimensional model which self-consistently calculates electric fields to explore both spatial and temporal effects, and compares to thermal plasma observations. A rigorous understanding of the ambient thermal plasma parameters and their effects on the local spacecraft sheath and charging, is required for quantitative interpretation of in situ thermal plasma observations. To complement this TRANSCAR analysis we therefore require a reliable means of interpreting in situ thermal plasma observation. This interpretation depends upon a rigorous plasma sheath model since the ambient ion energy is on the order of the spacecraft's sheath energy. A self-consistent PIC model is used to model the spacecraft sheath, and a test-particle approach then predicts the detector response for a given plasma environment. The model parameters are then modified until agreement is found with the in situ data. We find that for some situations, the thermal plasma parameters are strongly driven by the precipitation at the observation time. For other situations, the previous history of the precipitation at that position can have a stronger

Rates for parallax-shifted microlensing events from ground-based observations of the galactic bulge

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Buchalter, A.; Kamionkowski, M.

1997-01-01

The parallax effect in ground-based microlensing (ML) observations consists of a distortion to the standard ML light curve arising from the Earth's orbital motion. This can be used to partially remove the degeneracy among the system parameters in the event timescale, t 0 . In most cases, the resolution in current ML surveys is not accurate enough to observe this effect, but parallax could conceivably be detected with frequent follow-up observations of ML events in progress, providing the photometric errors are small enough. We calculate the expected fraction of ML events where the shape distortions will be observable by such follow-up observations, adopting Galactic models for the lens and source distributions that are consistent with observed microlensing timescale distributions. We study the dependence of the rates for parallax-shifted events on the frequency of follow-up observations and on the precision of the photometry. For example, we find that for hourly observations with typical photometric errors of 0.01 mag, 6% of events where the lens is in the bulge, and 31% of events where the lens is in the disk (or ∼10% of events overall), will give rise to a measurable parallax shift at the 95% confidence level. These fractions may be increased by improved photometric accuracy and increased sampling frequency. While long-duration events are favored, the surveys would be effective in picking out such distortions in events with timescales as low as t 0 ∼20 days. We study the dependence of these fractions on the assumed disk mass function and find that a higher parallax incidence is favored by mass functions with higher mean masses. Parallax measurements yield the reduced transverse speed, v, which gives both the relative transverse speed and lens mass as a function of distance. We give examples of the accuracies with which v may be measured in typical parallax events. (Abstract Truncated)

A new type of ion injection event observed by Viking

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yamauchi, M.; Lundin, R.; Woch, J.; Shapshak, M.; Elphinstone, R.

1993-01-01

The authors report on the observation of a new type of ion injection event observed by Viking spacecraft several degrees equatorward of the cusp. Its signature seems considerably different than previously reported events such as flux transfer events or impulsive or transient magnetosheath plasma injection events. It consists of low energy ions, as the pattern drops sharply above 100 to 200 eV

Long-duration high-energy proton events observed by GOES in October 1989

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Anttila

1998-08-01

Full Text Available We consider the prolonged injection of the high-energy (>10 MeV protons during the three successive events observed by GOES in October 1989. We apply a solar-rotation-stereoscopy approach to study the injection of the accelerated particles from the CME-driven interplanetary shock waves in order to find out how the effectiveness of the particle acceleration and/or escape depends on the angular distance from the shock axis. We use an empirical model for the proton injection at the shock and a standard model of the interplanetary transport. The model can reproduce rather well the observed intensity–time profiles of the October 1989 events. The deduced proton injection rate is highest at the nose of the shock; the injection spectrum is always harder near the Sun. The results seem to be consistent with the scheme that the CME-driven interplanetary shock waves accelerate a seed particle population of coronal origin.Key words. Interplanetary physics · Energetic particles · Solar physics · astrophysics and astronomy · Flares and mass ejections

Episodes, events, and models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sangeet eKhemlani

2015-10-01

Full Text Available We describe a novel computational theory of how individuals segment perceptual information into representations of events. The theory is inspired by recent findings in the cognitive science and cognitive neuroscience of event segmentation. In line with recent theories, it holds that online event segmentation is automatic, and that event segmentation yields mental simulations of events. But it posits two novel principles as well: first, discrete episodic markers track perceptual and conceptual changes, and can be retrieved to construct event models. Second, the process of retrieving and reconstructing those episodic markers is constrained and prioritized. We describe a computational implementation of the theory, as well as a robotic extension of the theory that demonstrates the processes of online event segmentation and event model construction. The theory is the first unified computational account of event segmentation and temporal inference. We conclude by demonstrating now neuroimaging data can constrain and inspire the construction of process-level theories of human reasoning.

Modeling the Magnetopause Shadowing Loss during the October 2012 Dropout Event

Science.gov (United States)

Tu, Weichao; Cunningham, Gregory

2017-04-01

The relativistic electron flux in Earth's outer radiation belt are observed to drop by orders of magnitude on timescales of a few hours, which is called radiation belt dropouts. Where do the electrons go during the dropouts? This is one of the most important outstanding questions in radiation belt studies. Radiation belt electrons can be lost either by precipitation into the atmosphere or by transport across the magnetopause into interplanetary space. The latter mechanism is called magnetopause shadowing, usually combined with outward radial diffusion of electrons due to the sharp radial gradient it creates. In order to quantify the relative contribution of these two mechanisms to radiation belt dropout, we performed an event study on the October 2012 dropout event observed by Van Allen Probes. First, the precipitating MeV electrons observed by multiple NOAA POES satellites at low altitude did not show evidence of enhanced precipitation during the dropout, which suggested that precipitation was not the dominant loss mechanism for the event. Then, in order to simulate the magnetopause shadowing loss and outward radial diffusion during the dropout, we applied a radial diffusion model with electron lifetimes on the order of electron drift periods outside the last closed drift shell. In addition, realistic and event-specific inputs of radial diffusion coefficients (DLL) and last closed drift shell (LCDS) were implemented in the model. Specifically, we used the new DLL developed by Cunningham [JGR 2016] which were estimated in realistic TS04 [Tsyganenko and Sitnov, JGR 2005] storm time magnetic field model and included physical K (2nd adiabatic invariant) or pitch angle dependence. Event-specific LCDS traced in TS04 model with realistic K dependence was also implemented. Our simulation results showed that these event-specific inputs are critical to explain the electron dropout during the event. The new DLL greatly improved the model performance at low L* regions (L

A Macro-Observation Scheme for Abnormal Event Detection in Daily-Life Video Sequences

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chiu Wei-Yao

2010-01-01

Full Text Available Abstract We propose a macro-observation scheme for abnormal event detection in daily life. The proposed macro-observation representation records the time-space energy of motions of all moving objects in a scene without segmenting individual object parts. The energy history of each pixel in the scene is instantly updated with exponential weights without explicitly specifying the duration of each activity. Since possible activities in daily life are numerous and distinct from each other and not all abnormal events can be foreseen, images from a video sequence that spans sufficient repetition of normal day-to-day activities are first randomly sampled. A constrained clustering model is proposed to partition the sampled images into groups. The new observed event that has distinct distance from any of the cluster centroids is then classified as an anomaly. The proposed method has been evaluated in daily work of a laboratory and BEHAVE benchmark dataset. The experimental results reveal that it can well detect abnormal events such as burglary and fighting as long as they last for a sufficient duration of time. The proposed method can be used as a support system for the scene that requires full time monitoring personnel.

Trends and characteristics observed in nuclear events based on international nuclear event scale reports

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Watanabe, Norio

2001-01-01

The International Nuclear Event Scale (INES) is jointly operated by the IAEA and the OECD-NEA as a means designed for providing prompt, clear and consistent information related to nuclear events, that occurred at nuclear facilities, and facilitating communication between the nuclear community, the media and the public. Nuclear events are reported to the INES with the Scale', a consistent safety significance indicator, which runs from level 0, for events with no safety significance, to level 7 for a major accident with widespread health and environmental effects. Since the operation of INES was initiated in 1990, approximately 500 events have been reported and disseminated. The present paper discusses the trends observed in nuclear events, such as overall trends of the reported events and characteristics of safety significant events with level 2 or higher, based on the INES reports. (author)

Plasma and field observations of a compressional Pc 5 wave event

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Baumjohann, W.; Sckopke, N.; LaBelle, J.; Klecker, B.; Luehr, H.; Glassmeier, K.H.

1987-01-01

On October 24, 1984, the AMPTE/IRM satellite, on its inbound orbit in the 1,300 LT sector, observed a strong compressional Pc 5 event lasting for about an hour. The use of data from the full complement of detectors aboard the spacecraft allowed for detailed measurements of field and particle oscillations, with the latter covering energies from a few electron volts up to tens of keV (electrons) or even 1 MeV (protons). Both energetic proton and electron fluxes were anticorrelated with the compressional magnetic field oscillations, indicating that the event belongs to the class of in-phase events. But the energetic proton data also exhibited a new feature: Flux minima and maxima at low energies were observed somewhat later than those at higher energies. The magnetic and plasma pressure oscillations satisfy the pressure balance equation for the drift mirror mode much better than that for drift compressional Alfven waves. However, the classical criterion for the onset of the mirror instability is not satisfied. The low-energy particles showed clear signatures of gradient convection due to the wave electric field with the protons additionally undergoing gyration acceleration. The period of the pulsation decreased while the satellite was moving inward, in agreement with the individual L shell resonance model. But in contrast to earlier observations the periods of the compressional and transverse oscillations differed significantly (by ∼ 25%). The authors interpret this as Doppler shift due to spacecraft motion since in the present event the transverse oscillations did not have the purely radial (poloidal) polarization common to other published cases

Predicting extreme rainfall events over Jeddah, Saudi Arabia: Impact of data assimilation with conventional and satellite observations

KAUST Repository

Viswanadhapalli, Yesubabu

2015-08-20

The impact of variational data assimilation for predicting two heavy rainfall events that caused devastating floods in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia is studied using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. On 25 November 2009 and 26 January 2011, the city was deluged with more than double the annual rainfall amount caused by convective storms. We used a high resolution, two-way nested domain WRF model to simulate the two rainfall episodes. Simulations include control runs initialized with National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecasting System (GFS) data and 3-Dimensional Variational (3DVAR) data assimilation experiments conducted by assimilating NCEP prepbufr and radiance observations. Observations from Automated Weather Stations (AWS), synoptic charts, radar reflectivity and satellite pictures from the Presidency of Meteorology and Environment (PME), Jeddah, Saudi Arabia are used to assess the forecasting results. To evaluate the impact of the different assimilated observational datasets on the simulation of the major flooding event of 2009, we conducted 3DVAR experiments assimilating individual sources and a combination of all data sets. Results suggest that while the control run had a tendency to predict the storm earlier than observed, the assimilation of profile observations greatly improved the model\\'s thermodynamic structure and lead to better representation of simulated rainfall both in timing and amount. The experiment with assimilation of all available observations compared best with observed rainfall in terms of timing of the storm and rainfall distribution, demonstrating the importance of assimilating different types of observations. Retrospective experiments with and without data assimilation, for three different model lead times (48, 72 and 96-h), were performed to examine the skill of WRF model to predict the heavy rainfall events. Quantitative rainfall analysis of these simulations suggests that 48-h lead time runs with

Infrasonic observations of large-scale HE events

Science.gov (United States)

Whitaker, Rodney W.; Mutschlecner, J. Paul; Davidson, Masha B.; Noel, Susan D.

1990-01-01

The Los Alamos Infrasound Program has been operating since about mid-1982, making routine measurements of low frequency atmospheric acoustic propagation. Generally, the authors work between 0.1 Hz to 10 Hz; however, much of the work is concerned with the narrower range of 0.5 to 5.0 Hz. Two permanent stations, St. George, UT, and Los Alamos, NM, have been operational since 1983, collecting data 24 hours a day. For the purposes of this discussion, the authors concentrate on their measurements of large, high explosive (HE) events at ranges of 250 km to 5330 km. Because their equipment is well suited for mobile deployments, they can easily establish temporary observing sites for special events. The measurements are from the permanent sites, as well as from various temporary sites. A few observations that are typical of the full data set are given.

Motion of flux transfer events: a test of the Cooling model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R. C. Fear

2007-07-01

Full Text Available The simple model of reconnected field line motion developed by Cooling et al. (2001 has been used in several recent case studies to explain the motion of flux transfer events across the magnetopause. We examine 213 FTEs observed by all four Cluster spacecraft under a variety of IMF conditions between November 2002 and June 2003, when the spacecraft tetrahedron separation was ~5000 km. Observed velocities were calculated from multi-spacecraft timing analysis, and compared with the velocities predicted by the Cooling model in order to check the validity of the model. After excluding three categories of FTEs (events with poorly defined velocities, a significant velocity component out of the magnetopause surface, or a scale size of less than 5000 km, we were left with a sample of 118 events. 78% of these events were consistent in both direction of motion and speed with one of the two model de Hoffmann-Teller (dHT velocities calculated from the Cooling model (to within 30° and a factor of two in the speed. We also examined the plasma signatures of several magnetosheath FTEs; the electron signatures confirm the hemisphere of connection indicated by the model in most cases. This indicates that although the model is a simple one, it is a useful tool for identifying the source regions of FTEs.

Measurement of Underlying Event Observables with the ATLAS detector

CERN Document Server

Astalos, Robert; The ATLAS collaboration

2017-01-01

The modelling of the Underlying Event (UE) is a crucial component in the complete description of both soft and hard QCD processes at hadron colliders. The ATLAS collaboration presents new results on the number and transversemomentum sum of charged particles as a function of the leading high pT track in events taken at a center of mass energy of 13 TeV. These results are presented in regions towards, transverse, and away from the leading track and allow to test the modelling of the Underlying Event in modern MC generators. Furthermore, eventshape variables based on charged particles have been measured in Z-events at 7 TeV and have been compared with the predictions of different stateoftheart MC generators. These measurements test the Underlying Event in a complementary way.

New method to analyze super-family events observed with emulsion chambers

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Amenomori, M.

1997-01-01

The authors have developed a clustering method to analyze family events observed with emulsion chambers at high mountains. The main purpose of this analysis is to estimate the main production height of individual events, angular spread of gamma-rays in each event and so on. These enable them to investigate hadronic interactions at energies over 10 16 eV inaccessible by the present high-energy accelerators. they examined their clustering method using Monte Carlo events, and found that for the family events whose production height is low (within 2-3 km above the observation point in air), their production heights and lateral spreads are well reproduced. They further applied their method to the super-family events (ΣE γ > 1000 TeV) observed with emulsion chambers at Mt. Kanbala (5500 m above sea-level). The results seem to suggest that particle production with large transverse momentum occurs with considerable frequency even in the fragmentation region in the energy region over 10 16 eV

A long Saharan dust event over the western Mediterranean: Lidar, Sun photometer observations, and regional dust modeling

Science.gov (United States)

PéRez, C.; Nickovic, S.; Baldasano, J. M.; Sicard, M.; Rocadenbosch, F.; Cachorro, V. E.

2006-08-01

A long Saharan dust event affected the western Mediterranean in the period 12-28 June 2002. Dust was present mainly between 1- and 5-km height affecting most parts of the Iberian Peninsula and reaching western/central Europe. Intensive backscatter lidar observations over Barcelona (Spain) and Sun photometer data from two stations (El Arenosillo, Spain, and Avignon, France) are used to evaluate different configurations the Dust Regional Atmospheric Modeling (DREAM) system. DREAM currently operates dust forecasts over the Mediterranean region (http://www.bsc.es/projects/earthscience/DREAM/) considering four particle size bins while only the first two are relevant for long-range transport analysis since their life time is larger than 12 hours. A more detailed bin method is implemented, and two different dust distributions at sources are compared to the operational version. Evaluations are performed at two wavelengths (532 and 1064 nm). The dust horizontal and vertical structure simulated by DREAM shows very good qualitative agreement when compared to SeaWIFS satellite images and lidar height-time displays over Barcelona. When evaluating the modeled aerosol optical depth (AOD) against Sun photometer data, significant improvements are achieved with the use of the new detailed bin method. In general, the model underpredicts the AOD for increasing Ångström exponents because of the influence of anthropogenic pollution in the boundary layer. In fact, the modeled AOD is highly anticorrelated with the observed Ångström exponents. Avignon shows higher influence of small anthropogenic aerosols which explains the better results of the model at the wavelength of 1064 nm over this location. The uncertainties of backscatter lidar inversions (20-30%) are in the same order of magnitude as the differences between the model experiments. Better model results are obtained when comparing to lidar because most of the anthropogenic effect is removed.

AGILE OBSERVATIONS OF THE GRAVITATIONAL-WAVE EVENT GW150914

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tavani, M.; Donnarumma, I.; Argan, A.; Monte, E. Del; Evangelista, Y.; Piano, G.; Munar-Adrover, P. [INAF-IAPS, via del Fosso del Cavaliere 100, I-00133 Roma (Italy); Pittori, C.; Verrecchia, F.; Lucarelli, F.; Antonelli, L. A. [ASI Science Data Center (ASDC), Via del Politecnico, I-00133 Roma (Italy); Bulgarelli, A.; Marisaldi, M.; Fioretti, V.; Zoli, A. [INAF-IASF-Bologna, Via Gobetti 101, I-40129 Bologna (Italy); Giuliani, A.; Caraveo, P. [INAF-IASF Milano, via E.Bassini 15, I-20133 Milano (Italy); Trois, A. [INAF, Osservatorio Astronomico di Cagliari, Poggio dei Pini, strada 54, I-09012 Capoterra (Italy); Barbiellini, G. [Dip. di Fisica, Universita’ di Trieste and INFN, Via Valerio 2, I-34127 Trieste (Italy); Cattaneo, P. W., E-mail: victor@roma2.infn.it.it [INFN-Pavia, Via Bassi 6, I-27100 Pavia (Italy); and others

2016-07-01

We report the results of an extensive search through the AGILE data for a gamma-ray counterpart to the LIGO gravitational-wave (GW) event GW150914. Currently in spinning mode, AGILE has the potential of cover 80% of the sky with its gamma-ray instrument, more than 100 times a day. It turns out that AGILE came within a minute of the event time of observing the accessible GW150914 localization region. Interestingly, the gamma-ray detector exposed ∼65% of this region during the 100 s time intervals centered at −100 and +300 s from the event time. We determine a 2 σ flux upper limit in the band 50 MeV–10 GeV, UL = 1.9 × 10{sup −8} erg cm{sup −2} s{sup −1}, obtained ∼300 s after the event. The timing of this measurement is the fastest ever obtained for GW150914, and significantly constrains the electromagnetic emission of a possible high-energy counterpart. We also carried out a search for a gamma-ray precursor and delayed emission over five timescales ranging from minutes to days: in particular, we obtained an optimal exposure during the interval −150/−30 s. In all these observations, we do not detect a significant signal associated with GW150914. We do not reveal the weak transient source reported by Fermi -GBM 0.4 s after the event time. However, even though a gamma-ray counterpart of the GW150914 event was not detected, the prospects for future AGILE observations of GW sources are decidedly promising.

Observations of IMF coherent structures and their relationship to SEP dropout events

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

L. Trenchi

2013-08-01

Full Text Available The solar energetic particle (SEP events from impulsive solar flares are often characterized by short-timescale modulations affecting, at the same time, particles with different energies. Several models and simulations suggest that these modulations are observed when SEPs propagate through magnetic structures with a different connection with the flare site. However, in situ observations rarely showed clear magnetic signatures associated with these modulations. In this paper we used the Grad–Shafranov reconstruction to perform a detailed analysis of the local magnetic field topology during the SEP event of 9–10 January 1999, characterized by several SEP dropouts. An optimization procedure is used to identify, during this SEP event, the magnetic structures which better satisfy the Grad–Shafranov assumptions and to evaluate the direction of their invariant axis. We found that these two-dimensional structures, which are flux ropes or current sheets with a more complex field topology, are generally associated with the maxima in the SEP counts. This association suggests that the SEPs propagate within these structures and, since their gyration radii is much smaller than the transverse dimension of these structure, cannot escape from them.

Construction and Updating of Event Models in Auditory Event Processing

Science.gov (United States)

Huff, Markus; Maurer, Annika E.; Brich, Irina; Pagenkopf, Anne; Wickelmaier, Florian; Papenmeier, Frank

2018-01-01

Humans segment the continuous stream of sensory information into distinct events at points of change. Between 2 events, humans perceive an event boundary. Present theories propose changes in the sensory information to trigger updating processes of the present event model. Increased encoding effort finally leads to a memory benefit at event…

Event-based model diagnosis of rainfall-runoff model structures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stanzel, P.

2012-01-01

The objective of this research is a comparative evaluation of different rainfall-runoff model structures. Comparative model diagnostics facilitate the assessment of strengths and weaknesses of each model. The application of multiple models allows an analysis of simulation uncertainties arising from the selection of model structure, as compared with effects of uncertain parameters and precipitation input. Four different model structures, including conceptual and physically based approaches, are compared. In addition to runoff simulations, results for soil moisture and the runoff components of overland flow, interflow and base flow are analysed. Catchment runoff is simulated satisfactorily by all four model structures and shows only minor differences. Systematic deviations from runoff observations provide insight into model structural deficiencies. While physically based model structures capture some single runoff events better, they do not generally outperform conceptual model structures. Contributions to uncertainty in runoff simulations stemming from the choice of model structure show similar dimensions to those arising from parameter selection and the representation of precipitation input. Variations in precipitation mainly affect the general level and peaks of runoff, while different model structures lead to different simulated runoff dynamics. Large differences between the four analysed models are detected for simulations of soil moisture and, even more pronounced, runoff components. Soil moisture changes are more dynamical in the physically based model structures, which is in better agreement with observations. Streamflow contributions of overland flow are considerably lower in these models than in the more conceptual approaches. Observations of runoff components are rarely made and are not available in this study, but are shown to have high potential for an effective selection of appropriate model structures (author) [de

Interpretation of seismic section by acoustic modeling. Study of large amplitude events; Hadoba modeling ni yoru jishin tansa danmen no kaishaku. Kyoshinhaba event ni taisuru kosatsu

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tamagawa, T; Matsuoka, T; Sato, T [Japan Petroleum Exploration Corp., Tokyo (Japan); Minegishi, M; Tsuru, T [Japan National Oil Corp., Tokyo (Japan)

1996-05-01

A large amplitude event difficult to interpret was discovered in the overlap section in offset data beyond 10km targeting at deep structures, and the event was examined. A wave field modeling was carried out by use of a simplified synclinal structure model because it had been estimated that the large amplitude event had something to do with a synclinal structure. A pseudospectral program was used for modeling the wave field on the assumption that the synclinal structure model would be an acoustic body and that the surface would contain free boundaries and multiple reflection. It was found as the result that a discontinuous large amplitude event is mapped out in the synclinal part of the overlap section when a far trace is applied beyond the structure during a CMP overlap process. This can be attributed to the concentration of energy produced by multiple reflection in the synclinal part and by the reflection waves beyond the critical angle. Accordingly, it is possible that phenomena similar to those encountered in the modeling process are emerging during actual observation. 2 refs., 8 figs.

Data-Model and Inter-Model Comparisons of the GEM Outflow Events Using the Space Weather Modeling Framework

Science.gov (United States)

Welling, D. T.; Eccles, J. V.; Barakat, A. R.; Kistler, L. M.; Haaland, S.; Schunk, R. W.; Chappell, C. R.

2015-12-01

Two storm periods were selected by the Geospace Environment Modeling Ionospheric Outflow focus group for community collaborative study because of its high magnetospheric activity and extensive data coverage: the September 27 - October 4, 2002 corotating interaction region event and the October 22 - 29 coronal mass ejection event. During both events, the FAST, Polar, Cluster, and other missions made key observations, creating prime periods for data-model comparison. The GEM community has come together to simulate this period using many different methods in order to evaluate models, compare results, and expand our knowledge of ionospheric outflow and its effects on global dynamics. This paper presents Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) simulations of these important periods compared against observations from the Polar TIDE, Cluster CODIF and EFW instruments. Emphasis will be given to the second event. Density and velocity of oxygen and hydrogen throughout the lobes, plasma sheet, and inner magnetosphere will be the focus of these comparisons. For these simulations, the SWMF couples the multifluid version of BATS-R-US MHD to a variety of ionospheric outflow models of varying complexity. The simplest is outflow arising from constant MHD inner boundary conditions. Two first-principles-based models are also leveraged: the Polar Wind Outflow Model (PWOM), a fluid treatment of outflow dynamics, and the Generalized Polar Wind (GPW) model, which combines fluid and particle-in-cell approaches. Each model is capable of capturing a different set of energization mechanisms, yielding different outflow results. The data-model comparisons will illustrate how well each approach captures reality and which energization mechanisms are most important. Inter-model comparisons will illustrate how the different outflow specifications affect the magnetosphere. Specifically, it is found that the GPW provides increased heavy ion outflow over a broader spatial range than the alternative

The analysis of a complex fire event using multispaceborne observations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andrei Simona

2018-01-01

Full Text Available This study documents a complex fire event that occurred on October 2016, in Middle East belligerent area. Two fire outbreaks were detected by different spacecraft monitoring instruments on board of TERRA, CALIPSO and AURA Earth Observation missions. Link with local weather conditions was examined using ERA Interim Reanalysis and CAMS datasets. The detection of the event by multiple sensors enabled a detailed characterization of fires and the comparison with different observational data.

The analysis of a complex fire event using multispaceborne observations

Science.gov (United States)

Andrei, Simona; Carstea, Emil; Marmureanu, Luminita; Ene, Dragos; Binietoglou, Ioannis; Nicolae, Doina; Konsta, Dimitra; Amiridis, Vassilis; Proestakis, Emmanouil

2018-04-01

This study documents a complex fire event that occurred on October 2016, in Middle East belligerent area. Two fire outbreaks were detected by different spacecraft monitoring instruments on board of TERRA, CALIPSO and AURA Earth Observation missions. Link with local weather conditions was examined using ERA Interim Reanalysis and CAMS datasets. The detection of the event by multiple sensors enabled a detailed characterization of fires and the comparison with different observational data.

Underlying event sensitive observables in Drell-Yan production using GENEVA

CERN Document Server

Alioli, Simone; Guns, Sam; Tackmann, Frank J.

2016-11-09

We present an extension of the GENEVA Monte Carlo framework to include multiple parton interactions (MPI) provided by PYTHIA8. This allows us to obtain predictions for underlying-event sensitive measurements in Drell-Yan production, in conjunction with GENEVA's fully-differential NNLO calculation, NNLL' resummation for the 0-jet resolution variable (beam thrust), and NLL resummation for the 1-jet resolution variable. We describe the interface with the parton shower algorithm and MPI model of PYTHIA8, which preserves both the precision of partonic N-jet cross sections in GENEVA as well as the shower accuracy and good description of soft hadronic physics of PYTHIA8. We present results for several underlying-event sensitive observables and compare to data from ATLAS and CMS as well as to standalone PYTHIA8 predictions. This includes a comparison with the recent ATLAS measurement of the beam thrust spectrum, which provides a potential avenue to fully disentangle the physical effects from the primary hard interact...

Transition-zone observations of rapid flare events as observed by OSO-8

Science.gov (United States)

Lites, B. W.

1981-01-01

The rapid dissipation of flare energy has been observed in the transition-zone line of C IV at 1548.2 A using the University of Colorado spectrometer aboard OSO-8. Impulsive brightenings have been resolved with characteristic rise times as low as 3.5s. One event is analyzed in detail, and it is inferred that the electron density is greater than 2 x 10 to the 11th/cu cm at a temperature of 60,000 K, and that the flare energy is deposited at a rate of 2 ergs/cu cm per sec or greater. The temporal behavior of the intensity at the center of the C IV line is consistent with a nonequilibrium ionization of C III through C V. If this event is a result of the multiple tearing mode instability as the primary energy release mechanism, then the observations indicate a preflare magnetic field of about 175 G.

Methods and Model Dependency of Extreme Event Attribution: The 2015 European Drought

Science.gov (United States)

Hauser, Mathias; Gudmundsson, Lukas; Orth, René; Jézéquel, Aglaé; Haustein, Karsten; Vautard, Robert; van Oldenborgh, Geert J.; Wilcox, Laura; Seneviratne, Sonia I.

2017-10-01

Science on the role of anthropogenic influence on extreme weather events, such as heatwaves or droughts, has evolved rapidly in the past years. The approach of "event attribution" compares the occurrence-probability of an event in the present, factual climate with its probability in a hypothetical, counterfactual climate without human-induced climate change. Several methods can be used for event attribution, based on climate model simulations and observations, and usually researchers only assess a subset of methods and data sources. Here, we explore the role of methodological choices for the attribution of the 2015 meteorological summer drought in Europe. We present contradicting conclusions on the relevance of human influence as a function of the chosen data source and event attribution methodology. Assessments using the maximum number of models and counterfactual climates with pre-industrial greenhouse gas concentrations point to an enhanced drought risk in Europe. However, other evaluations show contradictory evidence. These results highlight the need for a multi-model and multi-method framework in event attribution research, especially for events with a low signal-to-noise ratio and high model dependency such as regional droughts.

Construction and updating of event models in auditory event processing.

Science.gov (United States)

Huff, Markus; Maurer, Annika E; Brich, Irina; Pagenkopf, Anne; Wickelmaier, Florian; Papenmeier, Frank

2018-02-01

Humans segment the continuous stream of sensory information into distinct events at points of change. Between 2 events, humans perceive an event boundary. Present theories propose changes in the sensory information to trigger updating processes of the present event model. Increased encoding effort finally leads to a memory benefit at event boundaries. Evidence from reading time studies (increased reading times with increasing amount of change) suggest that updating of event models is incremental. We present results from 5 experiments that studied event processing (including memory formation processes and reading times) using an audio drama as well as a transcript thereof as stimulus material. Experiments 1a and 1b replicated the event boundary advantage effect for memory. In contrast to recent evidence from studies using visual stimulus material, Experiments 2a and 2b found no support for incremental updating with normally sighted and blind participants for recognition memory. In Experiment 3, we replicated Experiment 2a using a written transcript of the audio drama as stimulus material, allowing us to disentangle encoding and retrieval processes. Our results indicate incremental updating processes at encoding (as measured with reading times). At the same time, we again found recognition performance to be unaffected by the amount of change. We discuss these findings in light of current event cognition theories. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

A model of return intervals between earthquake events

Science.gov (United States)

Zhou, Yu; Chechkin, Aleksei; Sokolov, Igor M.; Kantz, Holger

2016-06-01

Application of the diffusion entropy analysis and the standard deviation analysis to the time sequence of the southern California earthquake events from 1976 to 2002 uncovered scaling behavior typical for anomalous diffusion. However, the origin of such behavior is still under debate. Some studies attribute the scaling behavior to the correlations in the return intervals, or waiting times, between aftershocks or mainshocks. To elucidate a nature of the scaling, we applied specific reshulffling techniques to eliminate correlations between different types of events and then examined how it affects the scaling behavior. We demonstrate that the origin of the scaling behavior observed is the interplay between mainshock waiting time distribution and the structure of clusters of aftershocks, but not correlations in waiting times between the mainshocks and aftershocks themselves. Our findings are corroborated by numerical simulations of a simple model showing a very similar behavior. The mainshocks are modeled by a renewal process with a power-law waiting time distribution between events, and aftershocks follow a nonhomogeneous Poisson process with the rate governed by Omori's law.

Using ENLIL and SEPMOD to Evaluate Shock Connectivity Influences on Gradual SEP Events Observed with STEREO and ACE

Science.gov (United States)

Luhmann, J. G.; Mays, M. L.; Li, Y.; Bain, H. M.; Lee, C. O.; Odstrcil, D.; Mewaldt, R. A.; Cohen, C.; Leske, R. A.

2017-12-01

An observer's magnetic field connection to a SEP-producing interplanetary shock (or compression) source often appears to provide a good indicator of whether or not a SEP event occurs. As a result, some tools for SEP event modeling make use of this finding. However, a key assumption of these approaches is that the interplanetary magnetic field and heliospheric shock geometries are known throughout the event(s). We consider examples of SEP time profile calculations obtained with combined ENLIL and SEPMOD modeling where the results compare well with observations at multiple inner heliosphere sites, and compare them to cases where such comparisons show a relative lack of agreement. ENLIL does not include the shock inside 21 Rs or CME/ICME ejecta magnetic fields, but for the agreeable cases this does not seem to make a big difference. The number, size, speed and directions of related CMEs/ICMEs, and ENLIL field line geometry appear to play the most critical roles. This includes the inclusion of prior and parallel events that affect both the ICME propagation and magnetic field geometry and strength along the observer field line. It seems clear that if a SEP forecasting system is desired, we must continue to have instrumentation that allows us to specify global CME/ICME initiation geometry (coronagraphs, XUV/EUV imagers) and background solar wind structure (magnetographs).

Assessment of Observational Uncertainty in Extreme Precipitation Events over the Continental United States

Science.gov (United States)

Slinskey, E. A.; Loikith, P. C.; Waliser, D. E.; Goodman, A.

2017-12-01

Extreme precipitation events are associated with numerous societal and environmental impacts. Furthermore, anthropogenic climate change is projected to alter precipitation intensity across portions of the Continental United States (CONUS). Therefore, a spatial understanding and intuitive means of monitoring extreme precipitation over time is critical. Towards this end, we apply an event-based indicator, developed as a part of NASA's support of the ongoing efforts of the US National Climate Assessment, which assigns categories to extreme precipitation events based on 3-day storm totals as a basis for dataset intercomparison. To assess observational uncertainty across a wide range of historical precipitation measurement approaches, we intercompare in situ station data from the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN), satellite-derived precipitation data from NASA's Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), gridded in situ station data from the Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM), global reanalysis from NASA's Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis version 2 (MERRA 2), and regional reanalysis with gauge data assimilation from NCEP's North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR). Results suggest considerable variability across the five-dataset suite in the frequency, spatial extent, and magnitude of extreme precipitation events. Consistent with expectations, higher resolution datasets were found to resemble station data best and capture a greater frequency of high-end extreme events relative to lower spatial resolution datasets. The degree of dataset agreement varies regionally, however all datasets successfully capture the seasonal cycle of precipitation extremes across the CONUS. These intercomparison results provide additional insight about observational uncertainty and the ability of a range of precipitation measurement and analysis products to capture extreme precipitation event climatology. While the event category threshold is fixed

Constructing Dynamic Event Trees from Markov Models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Paolo Bucci; Jason Kirschenbaum; Tunc Aldemir; Curtis Smith; Ted Wood

2006-01-01

In the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of process plants, Markov models can be used to model accurately the complex dynamic interactions between plant physical process variables (e.g., temperature, pressure, etc.) and the instrumentation and control system that monitors and manages the process. One limitation of this approach that has prevented its use in nuclear power plant PRAs is the difficulty of integrating the results of a Markov analysis into an existing PRA. In this paper, we explore a new approach to the generation of failure scenarios and their compilation into dynamic event trees from a Markov model of the system. These event trees can be integrated into an existing PRA using software tools such as SAPHIRE. To implement our approach, we first construct a discrete-time Markov chain modeling the system of interest by: (a) partitioning the process variable state space into magnitude intervals (cells), (b) using analytical equations or a system simulator to determine the transition probabilities between the cells through the cell-to-cell mapping technique, and, (c) using given failure/repair data for all the components of interest. The Markov transition matrix thus generated can be thought of as a process model describing the stochastic dynamic behavior of the finite-state system. We can therefore search the state space starting from a set of initial states to explore all possible paths to failure (scenarios) with associated probabilities. We can also construct event trees of arbitrary depth by tracing paths from a chosen initiating event and recording the following events while keeping track of the probabilities associated with each branch in the tree. As an example of our approach, we use the simple level control system often used as benchmark in the literature with one process variable (liquid level in a tank), and three control units: a drain unit and two supply units. Each unit includes a separate level sensor to observe the liquid level in the tank

BAYESIAN TECHNIQUES FOR COMPARING TIME-DEPENDENT GRMHD SIMULATIONS TO VARIABLE EVENT HORIZON TELESCOPE OBSERVATIONS

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, Junhan; Marrone, Daniel P.; Chan, Chi-Kwan; Medeiros, Lia; Özel, Feryal; Psaltis, Dimitrios, E-mail: junhankim@email.arizona.edu [Department of Astronomy and Steward Observatory, University of Arizona, 933 N. Cherry Avenue, Tucson, AZ 85721 (United States)

2016-12-01

The Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) is a millimeter-wavelength, very-long-baseline interferometry (VLBI) experiment that is capable of observing black holes with horizon-scale resolution. Early observations have revealed variable horizon-scale emission in the Galactic Center black hole, Sagittarius A* (Sgr A*). Comparing such observations to time-dependent general relativistic magnetohydrodynamic (GRMHD) simulations requires statistical tools that explicitly consider the variability in both the data and the models. We develop here a Bayesian method to compare time-resolved simulation images to variable VLBI data, in order to infer model parameters and perform model comparisons. We use mock EHT data based on GRMHD simulations to explore the robustness of this Bayesian method and contrast it to approaches that do not consider the effects of variability. We find that time-independent models lead to offset values of the inferred parameters with artificially reduced uncertainties. Moreover, neglecting the variability in the data and the models often leads to erroneous model selections. We finally apply our method to the early EHT data on Sgr A*.

Discovering block-structured process models from event logs containing infrequent behaviour

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Leemans, S.J.J.; Fahland, D.; Aalst, van der W.M.P.; Lohmann, N.; Song, M.; Wohed, P.

2014-01-01

Given an event log describing observed behaviour, process discovery aims to find a process model that ‘best’ describes this behaviour. A large variety of process discovery algorithms has been proposed. However, no existing algorithm returns a sound model in all cases (free of deadlocks and other

Body and Surface Wave Modeling of Observed Seismic Events

Science.gov (United States)

1981-04-30

mechanisms for foreshock , mainshock, and aftershock sequences using Seismic Research Observatory (SRO) data, EOS, 57(12), p. 954, 1976. Bache, T.C., W.L...the event as well as that of the immediate foreshock were 95 located (Allen and Nordquist, 1972) and where the largest surface displacements were...1972). Foreshock , main shock and larger aftershocks of the Borrego Mountain earthquake, U. S. Geological Survey Professional Paper 787, 16-23. Bache

Jellyfish: Observational Properties of Extreme Ram-Pressure Stripping Events in Massive Galaxy Clusters

Science.gov (United States)

Conor, McPartland; Ebeling, Harald; Roediger, Elke

2015-08-01

We investigate the physical origin and observational signatures of extreme ram-pressure stripping (RPS) in 63 massive galaxy clusters at z=0.3-0.7, based on data in the F606W passband obtained with the Advanced Camera for Surveys aboard the Hubble Space Telescope. Using a training set of a dozen ``jellyfish" galaxies identified earlier in the same imaging data, we define quantitative morphological criteria to select candidate galaxies which are similar to known cases of RPS. Considering a sample of 16 ``jellyfish" galaxies (10 of which we present for the first time), we visually derive estimates of the projected direction of motion based on dynamical features such as apparent compression shocks and debris trails. Our findings suggest that the observed events occur primarily at large distances from the cluster core and involve infall trajectories featuring high impact parameters. Simple models of cluster growth show that such trajectories are consistent with two scenarios: 1) galaxy infall along filaments; and 2) infall at high velocities (≥1000 km/s) characteristic of cluster mergers. The observed distribution of events is best described by timescales of ˜few Myr in agreement with recent numerical simulations of RPS. The broader areal coverage of the Hubble Frontier Fields should provide an even larger sample of RPS events to determine the relative contributions of infall and cluster mergers. Prompted by the discovery of several jellyfish galaxies whose brightness in the F606W passband rivals or exceeds that of the respective brightest cluster galaxy, we attempt to constrain the luminosity function of galaxies undergoing RPS. The observed significant excess at the bright end compared to the luminosity functions of blue cluster members strongly suggests enhanced star formation, thus challenging theoretical and numerical studies according to which RPS merely displaces existing star-forming regions. In-depth studies of individual objects will help test our

Evaluating MJO Event Initiation and Decay in the Skeleton Model using an RMM-like Index

Science.gov (United States)

2015-11-25

univariate zonal wind EOF analysis, the mean number of continuing events exceeds 437 observations, though the observed number falls within the 95...year simulation period using the truncated, 464 observed SSTs. Approximately two-thirds of the observed events fall within 20-100 days with a 465...Advances in simulating atmospheric variability with the ECMWF 745 model: From synoptic to decadal time-scales, Q. J. Roy. Meteor . Soc.. 134, 1337

Probabilistic Models for Solar Particle Events

Science.gov (United States)

Adams, James H., Jr.; Dietrich, W. F.; Xapsos, M. A.; Welton, A. M.

2009-01-01

Probabilistic Models of Solar Particle Events (SPEs) are used in space mission design studies to provide a description of the worst-case radiation environment that the mission must be designed to tolerate.The models determine the worst-case environment using a description of the mission and a user-specified confidence level that the provided environment will not be exceeded. This poster will focus on completing the existing suite of models by developing models for peak flux and event-integrated fluence elemental spectra for the Z>2 elements. It will also discuss methods to take into account uncertainties in the data base and the uncertainties resulting from the limited number of solar particle events in the database. These new probabilistic models are based on an extensive survey of SPE measurements of peak and event-integrated elemental differential energy spectra. Attempts are made to fit the measured spectra with eight different published models. The model giving the best fit to each spectrum is chosen and used to represent that spectrum for any energy in the energy range covered by the measurements. The set of all such spectral representations for each element is then used to determine the worst case spectrum as a function of confidence level. The spectral representation that best fits these worst case spectra is found and its dependence on confidence level is parameterized. This procedure creates probabilistic models for the peak and event-integrated spectra.

The Solar Energetic Particle Event of 2010 August 14: Connectivity with the Solar Source Inferred from Multiple Spacecraft Observations and Modeling

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lario, D.; Kwon, R.-Y.; Raouafi, N. E. [The Johns Hopkins University, Applied Physics Laboratory, 11100 Johns Hopkins Road, Laurel, MD 20723 (United States); Richardson, I. G.; Thompson, B. J.; Rosenvinge, T. T. von; Mays, M. L.; Mäkelä, P. A.; Xie, H.; Thakur, N. [NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD 20771 (United States); Bain, H. M. [Space Sciences Laboratory, UC Berkeley, 7 Gauss Way, Berkeley, CA 94720-7450 (United States); Zhang, M.; Zhao, L. [Department of Physics and Space Sciences, Florida Institute of Technology, Melbourne, FL (United States); Cane, H. V. [Department of Mathematics and Physics, University of Tasmania, Hobart (Australia); Papaioannou, A. [Institute for Astronomy, Astrophysics, Space Applications and Remote Sensing, National Observatory of Athens, GR-15 236 Penteli (Greece); Riley, P., E-mail: david.lario@jhuapl.edu [Predictive Science, 9990 Mesa Rim Road, Suite 170, San Diego, CA 92121 (United States)

2017-03-20

We analyze one of the first solar energetic particle (SEP) events of solar cycle 24 observed at widely separated spacecraft in order to assess the reliability of models currently used to determine the connectivity between the sources of SEPs at the Sun and spacecraft in the inner heliosphere. This SEP event was observed on 2010 August 14 by near-Earth spacecraft, STEREO-A (∼80° west of Earth) and STEREO-B (∼72° east of Earth). In contrast to near-Earth spacecraft, the footpoints of the nominal magnetic field lines connecting STEREO-A and STEREO-B with the Sun were separated from the region where the parent fast halo coronal mass ejection (CME) originated by ∼88° and ∼47° in longitude, respectively. We discuss the properties of the phenomena associated with this solar eruption. Extreme ultraviolet and white-light images are used to specify the extent of the associated CME-driven coronal shock. We then assess whether the SEPs observed at the three heliospheric locations were accelerated by this shock or whether transport mechanisms in the corona and/or interplanetary space provide an alternative explanation for the arrival of particles at the poorly connected spacecraft. A possible scenario consistent with the observations indicates that the observation of SEPs at STEREO-B and near Earth resulted from particle injection by the CME shock onto the field lines connecting to these spacecraft, whereas SEPs reached STEREO-A mostly via cross-field diffusive transport processes. The successes, limitations, and uncertainties of the methods used to resolve the connection between the acceleration sites of SEPs and the spacecraft are evaluated.

Modeling associations between latent event processes governing time series of pulsing hormones.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Huayu; Carlson, Nichole E; Grunwald, Gary K; Polotsky, Alex J

2017-10-31

This work is motivated by a desire to quantify relationships between two time series of pulsing hormone concentrations. The locations of pulses are not directly observed and may be considered latent event processes. The latent event processes of pulsing hormones are often associated. It is this joint relationship we model. Current approaches to jointly modeling pulsing hormone data generally assume that a pulse in one hormone is coupled with a pulse in another hormone (one-to-one association). However, pulse coupling is often imperfect. Existing joint models are not flexible enough for imperfect systems. In this article, we develop a more flexible class of pulse association models that incorporate parameters quantifying imperfect pulse associations. We propose a novel use of the Cox process model as a model of how pulse events co-occur in time. We embed the Cox process model into a hormone concentration model. Hormone concentration is the observed data. Spatial birth and death Markov chain Monte Carlo is used for estimation. Simulations show the joint model works well for quantifying both perfect and imperfect associations and offers estimation improvements over single hormone analyses. We apply this model to luteinizing hormone (LH) and follicle stimulating hormone (FSH), two reproductive hormones. Use of our joint model results in an ability to investigate novel hypotheses regarding associations between LH and FSH secretion in obese and non-obese women. © 2017, The International Biometric Society.

Reconnection at the earth's magnetopause - Magnetic field observations and flux transfer events

Science.gov (United States)

Russell, C. T.

1984-01-01

Theoretical models of plasma acceleration by magnetic-field-line reconnection at the earth magnetopause and the high-resolution three-dimensional plasma measurements obtained with the ISEE satellites are compared and illustrated with diagrams, graphs, drawings, and histograms. The history of reconnection theory and the results of early satellite observations are summarized; the thickness of the magnetopause current layer is discussed; problems in analyzing the polarization of current-layer rotation are considered; and the flux-transfer events responsible for periods of patchy reconnection are characterized in detail. The need for further observations and refinements of the theory to explain the initiation of reconnection and identify the mechanism determining whether it is patchy or steady-state is indicated.

Latitudinal extent of the January 2005 solar proton event in the Northern Hemisphere from satellite observations of hydroxyl

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

P. T. Verronen

2007-11-01

Full Text Available We utilise hydroxyl observations from the MLS/Aura satellite instrument to study the latitudinal extent of particle forcing in the northern polar region during the January 2005 solar proton event. MLS is the first satellite instrument to observe HOx changes during such an event. We also predict the hydroxyl changes with respect to the magnetic latitude by the Sodankylä Ion and Neutral Chemistry model, estimating the variable magnetic cutoff energies for protons using a parameterisation based on magnetosphere modelling and the planetary magnetic index Kp. In the middle and lower mesosphere, HOx species are good indicators of the changes in the atmosphere during solar proton events, because they respond rapidly to both increases and decreases in proton forcing. Also, atmospheric transport has a negligible effect on HOx because of its short chemical lifetime. The observations indicate the boundary of the proton forcing and a transition region, from none to the "full" effect, which ranges from about 57 to 64 degrees of magnetic latitude. When saturating the rigidity cutoff Kp at 6 in the model, as suggested by earlier studies using observations of cosmic radio noise absorption, the equatorward boundary of the transition region is offset by ≈2 degrees polewards compared with the data, thus the latitudinal extent of the proton forcing in the atmosphere is underestimated. However, the model predictions are in reasonable agreement with the MLS measurements when the Kp index is allowed to vary within its nominal range, i.e., from 1 to 9 in the cutoff calculation.

Dependency models and probability of joint events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oerjasaeter, O.

1982-08-01

Probabilistic dependencies between components/systems are discussed with reference to a broad classification of potential failure mechanisms. Further, a generalized time-dependency model, based on conditional probabilities for estimation of the probability of joint events and event sequences is described. The applicability of this model is clarified/demonstrated by various examples. It is concluded that the described model of dependency is a useful tool for solving a variety of practical problems concerning the probability of joint events and event sequences where common cause and time-dependent failure mechanisms are involved. (Auth.)

Modeling active region transient brightenings observed with X-ray telescope as multi-stranded loops

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kobelski, Adam R.; McKenzie, David E. [Department of Physics, P.O. Box 173840, Montana State University, Bozeman, MT 59717-3840 (United States); Donachie, Martin, E-mail: kobelski@solar.physics.montana.edu [University of Glasgow, Glasgow, G128QQ, Scotland (United Kingdom)

2014-05-10

Strong evidence exists that coronal loops as observed in extreme ultraviolet and soft X-rays may not be monolithic isotropic structures, but can often be more accurately modeled as bundles of independent strands. Modeling the observed active region transient brightenings (ARTBs) within this framework allows for the exploration of the energetic ramifications and characteristics of these stratified structures. Here we present a simple method of detecting and modeling ARTBs observed with the Hinode X-Ray Telescope (XRT) as groups of zero-dimensional strands, which allows us to probe parameter space to better understand the spatial and temporal dependence of strand heating in impulsively heated loops. This partially automated method can be used to analyze a large number of observations to gain a statistical insight into the parameters of coronal structures, including the number of heating events required in a given model to fit the observations. In this article, we present the methodology and demonstrate its use in detecting and modeling ARTBs in a sample data set from Hinode/XRT. These initial results show that, in general, multiple heating events are necessary to reproduce observed ARTBs, but the spatial dependence of these heating events cannot yet be established.

Modeling active region transient brightenings observed with X-ray telescope as multi-stranded loops

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kobelski, Adam R.; McKenzie, David E.; Donachie, Martin

2014-01-01

Strong evidence exists that coronal loops as observed in extreme ultraviolet and soft X-rays may not be monolithic isotropic structures, but can often be more accurately modeled as bundles of independent strands. Modeling the observed active region transient brightenings (ARTBs) within this framework allows for the exploration of the energetic ramifications and characteristics of these stratified structures. Here we present a simple method of detecting and modeling ARTBs observed with the Hinode X-Ray Telescope (XRT) as groups of zero-dimensional strands, which allows us to probe parameter space to better understand the spatial and temporal dependence of strand heating in impulsively heated loops. This partially automated method can be used to analyze a large number of observations to gain a statistical insight into the parameters of coronal structures, including the number of heating events required in a given model to fit the observations. In this article, we present the methodology and demonstrate its use in detecting and modeling ARTBs in a sample data set from Hinode/XRT. These initial results show that, in general, multiple heating events are necessary to reproduce observed ARTBs, but the spatial dependence of these heating events cannot yet be established.

Consequences of models for monojet events from Z boson decay

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Baer, H.; Komamiya, S.; Hagiwara, K.

1985-02-01

Three models for monojet events with large missing transverse momentum observed at the CERN panti p collider are studied: i) Z decay into a neutral lepton pair where one of the pair decays within the detecter while the other escapes, ii) Z decay into two distinct neutral scalars where the lighter one is long lived, and iii) Z decay into two distinct higgsinos where the lighter one is long lived. The first model necessarily gives observable decay in flight signals. Consequences of the latter two models are investigated in both panti p collisions at CERN and e + e - annihilation at PETRA/PEP energies. (orig.)

Observed Variability of Tsunamigenic Potential of Enormous Submarine Landslides Explained Through Modeling - A Comparison of the Holocene Storegga and Trænadjupet Events.

Science.gov (United States)

Løvholt, F.; Kim, J.; Laberg, J. S.

2016-12-01

The continental margin offshore Norway have experienced a range of giant submarine landslides having volumes ranging from hundreds to thousands of km3. The most recent and well documented of these events, are the 4500 BP Trænadjupet and the 8100 BP Storegga landslides. Both of these landslides are clay-rich, and involve common features such as retrogressive mass and momentum release mechanisms and weak layers that affect the tsunami generation. The retrogressive behaviour involved the release of several slide blocks which made the multistage failure and landslide evolution complex. The Storegga Slide reveals a rich and well documented onshore footprint in terms of paleotsunami deposits along the coastlines of Denmark, UK, the Faroe Islands, and Norway. In striking contrast, there exists no firm evidence of similar paleotsunami deposits from the younger Trænadjupet landslide. Here, we use a suit of new retrogressive and viscoplastic landslide models to simulate the run-out of both of these landslide events, and then couple the landslide to dispersive tsunami models. By using the new landslide models, we are able to obtain a better agreement with the observed paleotsunami deposits from the Storegga Slide compared to previous studies, and at the same time, to link the results to a landslide model that comply better with the slide morphology. Using the landslide model and soil parameters established for the Storegga Slide as the starting point, we set up a similar set of model scenarios for the Trænadjupet Slide. We discuss how the scenarios for the Trænadjupet landslide with different soil parameters produce different landslide velocities and tsunami heights. We then compare the resulting tsunami heights with constraints from the lack of onshore tsunami observations taking into account the contemporary shoreline position. Finally we briefly discuss the findings from the modeling in terms of both differences in tsunami observations and landslide morphology. The

Hierarchical Context Modeling for Video Event Recognition.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Xiaoyang; Ji, Qiang

2016-10-11

Current video event recognition research remains largely target-centered. For real-world surveillance videos, targetcentered event recognition faces great challenges due to large intra-class target variation, limited image resolution, and poor detection and tracking results. To mitigate these challenges, we introduced a context-augmented video event recognition approach. Specifically, we explicitly capture different types of contexts from three levels including image level, semantic level, and prior level. At the image level, we introduce two types of contextual features including the appearance context features and interaction context features to capture the appearance of context objects and their interactions with the target objects. At the semantic level, we propose a deep model based on deep Boltzmann machine to learn event object representations and their interactions. At the prior level, we utilize two types of prior-level contexts including scene priming and dynamic cueing. Finally, we introduce a hierarchical context model that systematically integrates the contextual information at different levels. Through the hierarchical context model, contexts at different levels jointly contribute to the event recognition. We evaluate the hierarchical context model for event recognition on benchmark surveillance video datasets. Results show that incorporating contexts in each level can improve event recognition performance, and jointly integrating three levels of contexts through our hierarchical model achieves the best performance.

A semi-analytical foreshock model for energetic storm particle events inside 1 AU

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vainio Rami

2014-02-01

Full Text Available We have constructed a semi-analytical model of the energetic-ion foreshock of a CME-driven coronal/interplanetary shock wave responsible for the acceleration of large solar energetic particle (SEP events. The model is based on the analytical model of diffusive shock acceleration of Bell (1978, appended with a temporal dependence of the cut-off momentum of the energetic particles accelerated at the shock, derived from the theory. Parameters of the model are re-calibrated using a fully time-dependent self-consistent simulation model of the coupled particle acceleration and Alfvén-wave generation upstream of the shock. Our results show that analytical estimates of the cut-off energy resulting from the simplified theory and frequently used in SEP modelling are overestimating the cut-off momentum at the shock by one order magnitude. We show also that the cut-off momentum observed remotely far upstream of the shock (e.g., at 1 AU can be used to infer the properties of the foreshock and the resulting energetic storm particle (ESP event, when the shock is still at small distances from the Sun, unaccessible to the in-situ observations. Our results can be used in ESP event modelling for future missions to the inner heliosphere, like the Solar Orbiter and Solar Probe Plus as well as in developing acceleration models for SEP events in the solar corona.

Stochastic modeling of central apnea events in preterm infants.

Science.gov (United States)

Clark, Matthew T; Delos, John B; Lake, Douglas E; Lee, Hoshik; Fairchild, Karen D; Kattwinkel, John; Moorman, J Randall

2016-04-01

A near-ubiquitous pathology in very low birth weight infants is neonatal apnea, breathing pauses with slowing of the heart and falling blood oxygen. Events of substantial duration occasionally occur after an infant is discharged from the neonatal intensive care unit (NICU). It is not known whether apneas result from a predictable process or from a stochastic process, but the observation that they occur in seemingly random clusters justifies the use of stochastic models. We use a hidden-Markov model to analyze the distribution of durations of apneas and the distribution of times between apneas. The model suggests the presence of four breathing states, ranging from very stable (with an average lifetime of 12 h) to very unstable (with an average lifetime of 10 s). Although the states themselves are not visible, the mathematical analysis gives estimates of the transition rates among these states. We have obtained these transition rates, and shown how they change with post-menstrual age; as expected, the residence time in the more stable breathing states increases with age. We also extrapolated the model to predict the frequency of very prolonged apnea during the first year of life. This paradigm-stochastic modeling of cardiorespiratory control in neonatal infants to estimate risk for severe clinical events-may be a first step toward personalized risk assessment for life threatening apnea events after NICU discharge.

An event-based model for contracts

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tiziana Cimoli

2013-02-01

Full Text Available We introduce a basic model for contracts. Our model extends event structures with a new relation, which faithfully captures the circular dependencies among contract clauses. We establish whether an agreement exists which respects all the contracts at hand (i.e. all the dependencies can be resolved, and we detect the obligations of each participant. The main technical contribution is a correspondence between our model and a fragment of the contract logic PCL. More precisely, we show that the reachable events are exactly those which correspond to provable atoms in the logic. Despite of this strong correspondence, our model improves previous work on PCL by exhibiting a finer-grained notion of culpability, which takes into account the legitimate orderings of events.

First observations of transient luminous events in Indian sub-continent

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Singh, Rajesh; Maurya, Ajeet K.; Veenadhari, B.

2014-01-01

The article offers information on the initial observations of flashes of lightning discharge observed above thunderstorms. It mentions that the transient luminous events (TLE) are classified on the basis of their geometrical shape and luminosity into Sprites, Halos and Blue Starters. It also focu...

Hydrodynamic modelling of extreme flood events in the Kashmir valley in India

Science.gov (United States)

Jain, Manoj; Parvaze, Sabah

2017-04-01

extreme flood events showed good agreement (within ±15%) with corresponding observed peak discharge. The model could simulated the most severe flood event of 2014 reasonably well with simulated peak discharge of 2055 m3/s which is just 3% more than the observed discharge. The developed hydrodynamic model may be useful in simulating extreme flood events in the Kashmir Valley with reasonably good reproduction of extreme flood events.

Simultaneous Modeling of Gradual SEP Events at the Earth and the Mars

Science.gov (United States)

Hu, J.; Li, G.

2017-12-01

Solar Energetic Particles (SEP) event is the number one space hazard for spacecraft instruments and astronauts' safety. Recent studies have shown that both longitudinal and radial extent of SEP events can be very significant. In this work, we use the improved Particle Acceleration and Transport in the Heliosphere (iPATH) model to simulate gradual SEP events that have impacts upon both the Earth and the Mars. We follow the propagation of a 2D CME-driven shock. Particles are accelerated at the shock via the diffusive shock acceleration (DSA) mechanism. Transport of the escaped particles to the Earth and the Mars is then followed using a backward stochastic differential equation method. Perpendicular diffusion is considered in both the DSA and the transport process. Model results such as time intensity profile and energetic particle spectrum at the two locations are compared to understand the spatial extent of an SEP event. Observational data at the Earth and the Mars are also studied to validate the model.

Coupling rainfall observations and satellite soil moisture for predicting event soil loss in Central Italy

Science.gov (United States)

Todisco, Francesca; Brocca, Luca; Termite, Loris Francesco; Wagner, Wolfgang

2015-04-01

The accuracy of water soil loss prediction depends on the ability of the model to account for effects of the physical phenomena causing the output and the accuracy by which the parameters have been determined. The process based models require considerable effort to obtain appropriate parameter values and their failure to produce better results than achieved using the USLE/RUSLE model, encourages the use of the USLE/RUSLE model in roles of which it was not designed. In particular it is widely used in watershed models even at the event temporal scale. At hillslope scale, spatial variability in soil and vegetation result in spatial variations in soil moisture and consequently in runoff within the area for which soil loss estimation is required, so the modeling approach required to produce those estimates needs to be sensitive to those spatial variations in runoff. Some models include explicit consideration of runoff in determining the erosive stresses but this increases the uncertainty of the prediction due to the difficulty in parameterising the models also because the direct measures of surface runoff are rare. The same remarks are effective also for the USLE/RUSLE models including direct consideration of runoff in the erosivity factor (i.e. USLE-M by Kinnell and Risse, 1998, and USLE-MM by Bagarello et al., 2008). Moreover actually most of the rainfall-runoff models are based on the knowledge of the pre-event soil moisture that is a fundamental variable in the rainfall-runoff transformation. In addiction soil moisture is a readily available datum being possible to have easily direct pre-event measures of soil moisture using in situ sensors or satellite observations at larger spatial scale; it is also possible to derive the antecedent water content with soil moisture simulation models. The attempt made in the study is to use the pre-event soil moisture to account for the spatial variation in runoff within the area for which the soil loss estimates are required. More

Structured Event-B Models and Proofs

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hallerstede, Stefan

2010-01-01

Event-B does not provide specific support for the modelling of problems that require some structuring, such as, local variables or sequential ordering of events. All variables need to be declared globally and sequential ordering of events can only be achieved by abstract program counters. This ha...

Foundations for Streaming Model Transformations by Complex Event Processing.

Science.gov (United States)

Dávid, István; Ráth, István; Varró, Dániel

2018-01-01

Streaming model transformations represent a novel class of transformations to manipulate models whose elements are continuously produced or modified in high volume and with rapid rate of change. Executing streaming transformations requires efficient techniques to recognize activated transformation rules over a live model and a potentially infinite stream of events. In this paper, we propose foundations of streaming model transformations by innovatively integrating incremental model query, complex event processing (CEP) and reactive (event-driven) transformation techniques. Complex event processing allows to identify relevant patterns and sequences of events over an event stream. Our approach enables event streams to include model change events which are automatically and continuously populated by incremental model queries. Furthermore, a reactive rule engine carries out transformations on identified complex event patterns. We provide an integrated domain-specific language with precise semantics for capturing complex event patterns and streaming transformations together with an execution engine, all of which is now part of the Viatra reactive transformation framework. We demonstrate the feasibility of our approach with two case studies: one in an advanced model engineering workflow; and one in the context of on-the-fly gesture recognition.

Application of declarative modeling approaches for external events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anoba, R.C.

2005-01-01

Probabilistic Safety Assessments (PSAs) are increasingly being used as a tool for supporting the acceptability of design, procurement, construction, operation, and maintenance activities at Nuclear Power Plants. Since the issuance of Generic Letter 88-20 and subsequent IPE/IPEEE assessments, the NRC has issued several Regulatory Guides such as RG 1.174 to describe the use of PSA in risk-informed regulation activities. Most PSA have the capability to address internal events including internal floods. As the more demands are being placed for using the PSA to support risk-informed applications, there has been a growing need to integrate other eternal events (Seismic, Fire, etc.) into the logic models. Most external events involve spatial dependencies and usually impact the logic models at the component level. Therefore, manual insertion of external events impacts into a complex integrated fault tree model may be too cumbersome for routine uses of the PSA. Within the past year, a declarative modeling approach has been developed to automate the injection of external events into the PSA. The intent of this paper is to introduce the concept of declarative modeling in the context of external event applications. A declarative modeling approach involves the definition of rules for injection of external event impacts into the fault tree logic. A software tool such as the EPRI's XInit program can be used to interpret the pre-defined rules and automatically inject external event elements into the PSA. The injection process can easily be repeated, as required, to address plant changes, sensitivity issues, changes in boundary conditions, etc. External event elements may include fire initiating events, seismic initiating events, seismic fragilities, fire-induced hot short events, special human failure events, etc. This approach has been applied at a number of US nuclear power plants including a nuclear power plant in Romania. (authors)

Modeling for operational event risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sattison, M.B.

1997-01-01

The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission has been using risk models to evaluate the risk significance of operational events in U.S. commercial nuclear power plants for more seventeen years. During that time, the models have evolved in response to the advances in risk assessment technology and insights gained with experience. Evaluation techniques fall into two categories, initiating event assessments and condition assessments. The models used for these analyses have become uniquely specialized for just this purpose

An EAS event observed in the early stage of development

Science.gov (United States)

Barroso, S. L. C.; Beggio, P. C.; de Carvalho, A. O.; Chinellato, J. A.; Mariano, A.; de Oliveira, R.; Shibuya, E. H.; Brazil-Japan Collaboration of Chacaltaya Emulsion Chamber Experiment

2008-01-01

Since 1969 the experiments of Brazil-Japan Collaboration showed the occurrence of a series of events, showing a region with a high concentration of electromagnetic particles, surrounded by isolated and/or groups of showers. These events were named "halo events" or "super-families". Currently, we have more than a dozen of such events. The first of them, due to its aspect, was named "Andromeda". We present here the main characteristics of a similar halo event, named C21S087I075. It has a halo region with many high energy showers in its border. Other small energy showers spread over the central and surrounding blocks (S088, S100, S101, I074). These isolated showers, classified as of hadronic or electromagnetic origin, present a fractional energy distribution compatible with that of a Centauro candidate event (C16S087I037), reported at this symposium [S.L.C. Barroso, P.C. Beggio, J.A. Chinellato, A.O. Carvalho, A. Mariano, R. Oliveira, E.H. Shibuya, in this issue of XIV ISVHECRI]. Moreover, the lateral distribution in the halo region is similar to that observed in other 3 halo events.

Numerical Modeling of the Severe Cold Weather Event over Central Europe (January 2006

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

D. Hari Prasad

2010-01-01

Full Text Available Cold waves commonly occur in higher latitudes under prevailing high pressure systems especially during winter season which cause serious economical loss and cold related death. Accurate prediction of such severe weather events is important for decision making by administrators and for mitigation planning. An Advanced high resolution Weather Research and Forecasting mesoscale model is used to simulate a severe cold wave event occurred during January 2006 over Europe. The model is integrated for 31 days starting from 00UTC of 1 January 2006 with 30 km horizontal resolution. Comparison of the model derived area averaged daily mean temperatures at 2m height from different zones over the central Europe with observations indicates that the model is able to simulate the occurrence of the cold wave with the observed time lag of 1 to 3days but with lesser intensity. The temperature, winds, surface pressure and the geopential heights at 500 hPa reveal that the cold wave development associates with the southward progression of a high pressure system and cold air advection. The results have good agreement with the analysis fields indicates that the model has the ability to reproduce the time evolution of the cold wave event.

Mutual event observations of solar system objects by SRC on Mars Express. Analysis and release of observations

Science.gov (United States)

Ziese, R.; Willner, K.

2018-06-01

Context. Both Martian moons, Phobos and Deimos, have been observed during several imaging campaigns by the Super Resolution Channel (SRC) on the Mars Express probe. Several tens of images are obtained during mutual event observations - when the Martian moons are both observed or together with another solar system body. These observations provide new opportunities to determine the bodies' positions in their orbits. Aims: A method was sought to automate the observation of the positions of the imaged bodies. Within one image sequence a similarly accurate localization of the objects in all images should be possible. Methods: Shape models of Phobos and Deimos are applied to simulate the appearance of the bodies in the images. Matching the illuminated simulation against the observation provides a reliable determination of the bodies' location within the image. To enhance the matching confidence several corrections need to be applied to the simulation to closely reconstruct the observation. Results: A list of 884 relative positions between the different objects is provided through the Centre de Données astronomiques de Strasbourg (CDS). Tables A.1-A.4 are only available at the CDS via anonymous ftp to http://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr (http://130.79.128.5) or via http://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr/viz-bin/qcat?J/A+A/614/A15

A coupled classification - evolutionary optimization model for contamination event detection in water distribution systems.

Science.gov (United States)

Oliker, Nurit; Ostfeld, Avi

2014-03-15

This study describes a decision support system, alerts for contamination events in water distribution systems. The developed model comprises a weighted support vector machine (SVM) for the detection of outliers, and a following sequence analysis for the classification of contamination events. The contribution of this study is an improvement of contamination events detection ability and a multi-dimensional analysis of the data, differing from the parallel one-dimensional analysis conducted so far. The multivariate analysis examines the relationships between water quality parameters and detects changes in their mutual patterns. The weights of the SVM model accomplish two goals: blurring the difference between sizes of the two classes' data sets (as there are much more normal/regular than event time measurements), and adhering the time factor attribute by a time decay coefficient, ascribing higher importance to recent observations when classifying a time step measurement. All model parameters were determined by data driven optimization so the calibration of the model was completely autonomic. The model was trained and tested on a real water distribution system (WDS) data set with randomly simulated events superimposed on the original measurements. The model is prominent in its ability to detect events that were only partly expressed in the data (i.e., affecting only some of the measured parameters). The model showed high accuracy and better detection ability as compared to previous modeling attempts of contamination event detection. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Properties of Coronal Shocks at the Origin of SEP events Observed by Only One Single Spacecraft

Science.gov (United States)

Lario, D.; Kwon, R.

2017-12-01

The simultaneous observation of solar energetic particle (SEP) events by multiple spacecraft distributed in the interplanetary medium depends not only on the spatial separation among the different spacecraft, but also on the properties of the particle sources and the characteristics of the SEP transport in interplanetary space. Among the SEP events observed by STEREO-A, STEREO-B and/or near-Earth spacecraft during solar cycle 24, we select SEP events observed by a single spacecraft (specifically, the SEP events observed only by near-Earth spacecraft on 2012 April 5, 2011 September 4, and 2013 August 17). We analyze whether the properties of the coronal shock associated with the origin of the events (as seen in extreme-ultraviolet and white-light coronal images) differ from those associated with SEP events observed by two or three spacecraft. For the selected events we find that the associated CMEs are, in general, narrower than those associated with SEP events observed by two or three spacecraft. The confined extension of the parent coronal shock and the absence of magnetic connection between distant spacecraft and the regions of the expanding coronal shock able to efficiently accelerate SEPs seem to be the conditions leading to intense SEP events observed only over narrow regions of interplanetary space by spacecraft magnetically connected to regions close to the parent eruption site. Weak and gradual intensity increases observed in extended regions of space might involve transport processes and/or later connections established with interplanetary shocks. Systematic analyses of a larger number of events are required before drawing firm conclusions.

SAR observation and model tracking of an oil spill event in coastal waters

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Cheng, Yongcun; Li, Xiaofeng; Xu, Qing

2011-01-01

Oil spills are a major contributor to marine pollution. The objective of this work is to simulate the oil spill trajectory of oil released from a pipeline leaking in the Gulf of Mexico with the GNOME (General NOAA Operational Modeling Environment) model. The model was developed by NOAA (National...... Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) to investigate the effects of different pollutants and environmental conditions on trajectory results. Also, a Texture-Classifying Neural Network Algorithm (TCNNA) was used to delineate ocean oil slicks from synthetic aperture radar (SAR) observations. During...

Conjugate observations of electromagnetic ion cyclotron waves associated with traveling convection vortex events

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Hyomin; Clauer, C. Robert; Gerrard, Andrew J.; Engebretson, Mark J.; Hartinger, Michael D.; Lessard, Marc R.; Matzka, Jürgen; Sibeck, David G.; Singer, Howard J.; Stolle, Claudia; Weimer, Daniel R.; Xu, Zhonghua

2017-07-01

We report on simultaneous observations of electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) waves associated with traveling convection vortex (TCV) events caused by transient solar wind dynamic pressure (Pd) impulse events. The Time History of Events and Macroscale Interactions during Substorms (THEMIS) spacecraft located near the magnetopause observed radial fluctuations of the magnetopause, and the GOES spacecraft measured sudden compressions of the magnetosphere in response to sudden increases in Pd. During the transient events, EMIC waves were observed by interhemispheric conjugate ground-based magnetometer arrays as well as the GOES spacecraft. The spectral structures of the waves appear to be well correlated with the fluctuating motion of the magnetopause, showing compression-associated wave generation. In addition, the wave features are remarkably similar in conjugate hemispheres in terms of bandwidth, quasiperiodic wave power modulation, and polarization. Proton precipitation was also observed by the DMSP spacecraft during the wave events, from which the wave source region is estimated to be 72°-74° in magnetic latitude, consistent with the TCV center. The confluence of space-borne and ground instruments including the interhemispheric, high-latitude, fluxgate/induction coil magnetometer array allows us to constrain the EMIC source region while also confirming the relationship between EMIC waves and the TCV current system.

A systematic comparison of recurrent event models for application to composite endpoints.

Science.gov (United States)

Ozga, Ann-Kathrin; Kieser, Meinhard; Rauch, Geraldine

2018-01-04

Many clinical trials focus on the comparison of the treatment effect between two or more groups concerning a rarely occurring event. In this situation, showing a relevant effect with an acceptable power requires the observation of a large number of patients over a long period of time. For feasibility issues, it is therefore often considered to include several event types of interest, non-fatal or fatal, and to combine them within a composite endpoint. Commonly, a composite endpoint is analyzed with standard survival analysis techniques by assessing the time to the first occurring event. This approach neglects that an individual may experience more than one event which leads to a loss of information. As an alternative, composite endpoints could be analyzed by models for recurrent events. There exists a number of such models, e.g. regression models based on count data or Cox-based models such as the approaches of Andersen and Gill, Prentice, Williams and Peterson or, Wei, Lin and Weissfeld. Although some of the methods were already compared within the literature there exists no systematic investigation for the special requirements regarding composite endpoints. Within this work a simulation-based comparison of recurrent event models applied to composite endpoints is provided for different realistic clinical trial scenarios. We demonstrate that the Andersen-Gill model and the Prentice- Williams-Petersen models show similar results under various data scenarios whereas the Wei-Lin-Weissfeld model delivers effect estimators which can considerably deviate under commonly met data scenarios. Based on the conducted simulation study, this paper helps to understand the pros and cons of the investigated methods in the context of composite endpoints and provides therefore recommendations for an adequate statistical analysis strategy and a meaningful interpretation of results.

Fermi GBM Observations of LIGO Gravitational-Wave Event Gw150914

Science.gov (United States)

Connaughton, V.; Burns, E.; Goldstein, A.; Blackburn, L.; Briggs, M. S.; Zhang, B.-B.; Camp, J.; Christensen, N.; Hui, C. M.; Jenke, P.;

Analytic expressions for the construction of a fire event PSA model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kang, Dae Il; Kim, Kil Yoo; Kim, Dong San; Hwang, Mee Jeong; Yang, Joon Eon

2016-01-01

In this study, the changing process of an internal event PSA model to a fire event PSA model is analytically presented and discussed. Many fire PSA models have fire induced initiating event fault trees not shown in an internal event PSA model. Fire-induced initiating fault tree models are developed for addressing multiple initiating event issues. A single fire event within a fire compartment or fire scenario can cause multiple initiating events. As an example, a fire in a turbine building area can cause a loss of the main feed-water and loss of off-site power initiating events. Up to now, there has been no analytic study on the construction of a fire event PSA model using an internal event PSA model with fault trees of initiating events. In this paper, the changing process of an internal event PSA model to a fire event PSA model was analytically presented and discussed. This study results show that additional cutsets can be obtained if the fault trees of initiating events for a fire event PSA model are not exactly developed.

Analytic expressions for the construction of a fire event PSA model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kang, Dae Il; Kim, Kil Yoo; Kim, Dong San; Hwang, Mee Jeong; Yang, Joon Eon [KAERI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2016-05-15

In this study, the changing process of an internal event PSA model to a fire event PSA model is analytically presented and discussed. Many fire PSA models have fire induced initiating event fault trees not shown in an internal event PSA model. Fire-induced initiating fault tree models are developed for addressing multiple initiating event issues. A single fire event within a fire compartment or fire scenario can cause multiple initiating events. As an example, a fire in a turbine building area can cause a loss of the main feed-water and loss of off-site power initiating events. Up to now, there has been no analytic study on the construction of a fire event PSA model using an internal event PSA model with fault trees of initiating events. In this paper, the changing process of an internal event PSA model to a fire event PSA model was analytically presented and discussed. This study results show that additional cutsets can be obtained if the fault trees of initiating events for a fire event PSA model are not exactly developed.

Developing future precipitation events from historic events: An Amsterdam case study.

Science.gov (United States)

Manola, Iris; van den Hurk, Bart; de Moel, Hans; Aerts, Jeroen

2016-04-01

Due to climate change, the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events is expected to increase. It is therefore of high importance to develop climate change scenarios tailored towards the local and regional needs of policy makers in order to develop efficient adaptation strategies to reduce the risks from extreme weather events. Current approaches to tailor climate scenarios are often not well adopted in hazard management, since average changes in climate are not a main concern to policy makers, and tailoring climate scenarios to simulate future extremes can be complex. Therefore, a new concept has been introduced recently that uses known historic extreme events as a basis, and modifies the observed data for these events so that the outcome shows how the same event would occur in a warmer climate. This concept is introduced as 'Future Weather', and appeals to the experience of stakeholders and users. This research presents a novel method of projecting a future extreme precipitation event, based on a historic event. The selected precipitation event took place over the broader area of Amsterdam, the Netherlands in the summer of 2014, which resulted in blocked highways, disruption of air transportation, flooded buildings and public facilities. An analysis of rain monitoring stations showed that an event of such intensity has a 5 to 15 years return period. The method of projecting a future event follows a non-linear delta transformation that is applied directly on the observed event assuming a warmer climate to produce an "up-scaled" future precipitation event. The delta transformation is based on the observed behaviour of the precipitation intensity as a function of the dew point temperature during summers. The outcome is then compared to a benchmark method using the HARMONIE numerical weather prediction model, where the boundary conditions of the event from the Ensemble Prediction System of ECMWF (ENS) are perturbed to indicate a warmer climate. The two

Two long-term slow slip events around Tokyo Bay found by GNSS observation during 1996-2011

Science.gov (United States)

Tanaka, Yoshiyuki; Yabe, Suguru

2017-03-01

Slow slip events (SSEs) with durations ranging from days to more than a decade have been observed in plate subduction zones around the world. In the Kanto district in Japan, several SSEs have been identified based on geodetic observations. However, none of these events have had durations largely exceeding a year. In this study, we show that long-term SSEs with durations longer than 3 years occurred before the year 2000 and after 2007 on the upper interface of the Philippine Sea Plate at depths of 30-40 km. The fault model determined by inversion of global navigation satellite system data is located northeast of Tokyo Bay, where a seismic gap and low seismic wave velocities were detected by seismological observations. Moreover, the acceleration periods of the fault slip corresponded well with increases in the background seismicity for shallower earthquakes. The slip history was also temporally correlated with the long-term shear stress changes governed mainly by non-tidal variations in the ocean bottom pressure. However, the predicted slip from the long-term stress change was too small to reproduce the observed slow slips. To prove the causal relationship between the SSEs and the external stress change, more advanced modeling is necessary to confirm whether such a small slip can trigger an SSE.[Figure not available: see fulltext.

Use of satellite and modeled soil moisture data for predicting event soil loss at plot scale

Science.gov (United States)

Todisco, F.; Brocca, L.; Termite, L. F.; Wagner, W.

2015-09-01

The potential of coupling soil moisture and a Universal Soil Loss Equation-based (USLE-based) model for event soil loss estimation at plot scale is carefully investigated at the Masse area, in central Italy. The derived model, named Soil Moisture for Erosion (SM4E), is applied by considering the unavailability of in situ soil moisture measurements, by using the data predicted by a soil water balance model (SWBM) and derived from satellite sensors, i.e., the Advanced SCATterometer (ASCAT). The soil loss estimation accuracy is validated using in situ measurements in which event observations at plot scale are available for the period 2008-2013. The results showed that including soil moisture observations in the event rainfall-runoff erosivity factor of the USLE enhances the capability of the model to account for variations in event soil losses, the soil moisture being an effective alternative to the estimated runoff, in the prediction of the event soil loss at Masse. The agreement between observed and estimated soil losses (through SM4E) is fairly satisfactory with a determination coefficient (log-scale) equal to ~ 0.35 and a root mean square error (RMSE) of ~ 2.8 Mg ha-1. These results are particularly significant for the operational estimation of soil losses. Indeed, currently, soil moisture is a relatively simple measurement at the field scale and remote sensing data are also widely available on a global scale. Through satellite data, there is the potential of applying the SM4E model for large-scale monitoring and quantification of the soil erosion process.

Use of satellite and modelled soil moisture data for predicting event soil loss at plot scale

Science.gov (United States)

Todisco, F.; Brocca, L.; Termite, L. F.; Wagner, W.

2015-03-01

The potential of coupling soil moisture and a~USLE-based model for event soil loss estimation at plot scale is carefully investigated at the Masse area, in Central Italy. The derived model, named Soil Moisture for Erosion (SM4E), is applied by considering the unavailability of in situ soil moisture measurements, by using the data predicted by a soil water balance model (SWBM) and derived from satellite sensors, i.e. the Advanced SCATterometer (ASCAT). The soil loss estimation accuracy is validated using in situ measurements in which event observations at plot scale are available for the period 2008-2013. The results showed that including soil moisture observations in the event rainfall-runoff erosivity factor of the RUSLE/USLE, enhances the capability of the model to account for variations in event soil losses, being the soil moisture an effective alternative to the estimated runoff, in the prediction of the event soil loss at Masse. The agreement between observed and estimated soil losses (through SM4E) is fairly satisfactory with a determination coefficient (log-scale) equal to of ~ 0.35 and a root-mean-square error (RMSE) of ~ 2.8 Mg ha-1. These results are particularly significant for the operational estimation of soil losses. Indeed, currently, soil moisture is a relatively simple measurement at the field scale and remote sensing data are also widely available on a global scale. Through satellite data, there is the potential of applying the SM4E model for large-scale monitoring and quantification of the soil erosion process.

Comprehensive Assessment of Models and Events based on Library tools (CAMEL)

Science.gov (United States)

Rastaetter, L.; Boblitt, J. M.; DeZeeuw, D.; Mays, M. L.; Kuznetsova, M. M.; Wiegand, C.

2017-12-01

At the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC), the assessment of modeling skill using a library of model-data comparison metrics is taken to the next level by fully integrating the ability to request a series of runs with the same model parameters for a list of events. The CAMEL framework initiates and runs a series of selected, pre-defined simulation settings for participating models (e.g., WSA-ENLIL, SWMF-SC+IH for the heliosphere, SWMF-GM, OpenGGCM, LFM, GUMICS for the magnetosphere) and performs post-processing using existing tools for a host of different output parameters. The framework compares the resulting time series data with respective observational data and computes a suite of metrics such as Prediction Efficiency, Root Mean Square Error, Probability of Detection, Probability of False Detection, Heidke Skill Score for each model-data pair. The system then plots scores by event and aggregated over all events for all participating models and run settings. We are building on past experiences with model-data comparisons of magnetosphere and ionosphere model outputs in GEM2008, GEM-CEDAR CETI2010 and Operational Space Weather Model challenges (2010-2013). We can apply the framework also to solar-heliosphere as well as radiation belt models. The CAMEL framework takes advantage of model simulations described with Space Physics Archive Search and Extract (SPASE) metadata and a database backend design developed for a next-generation Run-on-Request system at the CCMC.

Multi-spacecraft observations and transport simulations of solar energetic particles for the May 17th 2012 event

Science.gov (United States)

Battarbee, M.; Guo, J.; Dalla, S.; Wimmer-Schweingruber, R.; Swalwell, B.; Lawrence, D. J.

2018-05-01

Context. The injection, propagation and arrival of solar energetic particles (SEPs) during eruptive solar events is an important and current research topic of heliospheric physics. During the largest solar events, particles may have energies up to a few GeVs and sometimes even trigger ground-level enhancements (GLEs) at Earth. These large SEP events are best investigated through multi-spacecraft observations. Aims: We aim to study the first GLE-event of solar cycle 24, from 17th May 2012, using data from multiple spacecraft (SOHO, GOES, MSL, STEREO-A, STEREO-B and MESSENGER). These spacecraft are located throughout the inner heliosphere, at heliocentric distances between 0.34 and 1.5 astronomical units (au), covering nearly the whole range of heliospheric longitudes. Methods: We present and investigate sub-GeV proton time profiles for the event at several energy channels, obtained via different instruments aboard the above spacecraft. We investigated issues caused by magnetic connectivity, and present results of three-dimensional SEP propagation simulations. We gathered virtual time profiles and perform qualitative and quantitative comparisons with observations, assessed longitudinal injection and transport effects as well as peak intensities. Results: We distinguish different time profile shapes for well-connected and weakly connected observers, and find our onset time analysis to agree with this distinction. At select observers, we identify an additional low-energy component of Energetic Storm Particles (ESPs). Using well-connected observers for normalisation, our simulations are able to accurately recreate both time profile shapes and peak intensities at multiple observer locations. Conclusions: This synergetic approach combining numerical modelling with multi-spacecraft observations is crucial for understanding the propagation of SEPs within the interplanetary magnetic field. Our novel analysis provides valuable proof of the ability to simulate SEP propagation

Using Dawn to Observe SEP Events Past 2 AU

Science.gov (United States)

Villarreal, M. N.; Russell, C. T.; Prettyman, T. H.

2017-12-01

The launch of the STEREO spacecraft provided much insight into the longitudinal and radial distribution of solar energetic particles (SEPs) relative to their origin site. However, almost all of the observations of SEP events have been made exclusively near 1 AU. The Dawn mission, which orbited around Vesta before arriving at Ceres, provides an opportunity to analyze these events at much further distances. Although Dawn's Gamma Ray and Neutron Detector (GRaND) is not optimized for SEP characterization, it is sensitive to protons greater than 4 MeV, making it capable of detecting a solar energetic particle event in its vicinity. Solar energetic particles in this area of the solar system are important as they are believed to cause sputtering at bodies such as Ceres and comets (Villarreal et al., 2017; Wurz et al., 2015). In this study, we use Dawn's GRaND data from 2011-2015 when Dawn was at distances between 2-3 AU. We compare the SEP events seen by Dawn with particle measurements at 1 AU using STEREO, Wind, and ACE to understand how the SEP events evolved past 1 AU.References: Villarreal, M. N., et al. (2017), The dependence of the Cerean exosphere on solar energetic particle events, Astrophys. J. Lett., 838, L8.Wurz, P. et al. (2015), Solar wind sputtering of dust on the surface of 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko, A&A, 583, A22.

Event-Entity-Relationship Modeling in Data Warehouse Environments

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bækgaard, Lars

We use the event-entity-relationship model (EVER) to illustrate the use of entity-based modeling languages for conceptual schema design in data warehouse environments. EVER is a general-purpose information modeling language that supports the specification of both general schema structures and multi......-dimensional schemes that are customized to serve specific information needs. EVER is based on an event concept that is very well suited for multi-dimensional modeling because measurement data often represent events in multi-dimensional databases...

Event Modeling in UML. Unified Modeling Language and Unified Process

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bækgaard, Lars

2002-01-01

We show how events can be modeled in terms of UML. We view events as change agents that have consequences and as information objects that represent information. We show how to create object-oriented structures that represent events in terms of attributes, associations, operations, state charts......, and messages. We outline a run-time environment for the processing of events with multiple participants....

A Semi-Automatic, Remote-Controlled Video Observation System for Transient Luminous Events

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Allin, Thomas Højgaard; Neubert, Torsten; Laursen, Steen

2003-01-01

In support for global ELF/VLF observations, HF measurements in France, and conjugate photometry/VLF observations in South Africa, we developed and operated a semi-automatic, remotely controlled video system for the observation of middle-atmospheric transient luminous events (TLEs). Installed...

Modeling the Magnetopause Shadowing and Drift Orbit Bifurcation Loss during the June 2015 Dropout Event

Science.gov (United States)

Tu, W.; Cunningham, G.

2017-12-01

The relativistic electron flux in Earth's radiation belt are observed to drop by orders of magnitude on timescale of a few hours. Where do the electrons go during the dropout? This is one of the most important outstanding questions in radiation belt studies. Here we will study the 22 June 2015 dropout event which occurred during one of the largest geomagnetic storms in the last decade. A sudden and nearly complete loss of all the outer zone relativistic and ultra-relativistic electrons were observed after a strong interplanetary shock. The Last Closed Drift Shell (LCDS) calculated using the TS04 model reached as low as L*=3.7 during the shock and stay below L*=4 for 1 hour. The unusually low LCDS values suggest that magnetopause shadowing and the associated outward radial diffusion can contribute significantly to the observed dropout. In addition, Drift Orbit Bifurcation (DOB) has been suggested as an important loss mechanism for radiation belt electrons, especially when the solar wind dynamic pressure is high, but its relative importance has not been quantified. Here, we will model the June 2015 dropout event using a radial diffusion model that includes physical and event-specific inputs. First, we will trace electron drift shells based on TS04 model to identify the LCDS and bifurcation regions as a function of the 2nd adiabatic invariant (K) and time. To model magnetopause shadowing, electron lifetimes in our model will be set to electron drift periods at L*>LCDS. Electron lifetimes inside the bifurcation region have been estimated by Ukhorskiy et al. [JGR 2011, doi:10.1029/2011JA016623] as a function of L* and K, which will also be implemented in the model. This will be the first effort to include the DOB loss in a comprehensive radiation belt model. Furthermore, to realistically simulate outward radial diffusion, the new radial diffusion coefficients that are calculated based on the realistic TS04 model and include physical K dependence [Cunningham, JGR 2016

Automated identification and modeling aseismic slip events on Kilauea Volcano, Hawaii

Science.gov (United States)

Desmarais, E. K.; Segall, P.; Miklius, A.

2006-12-01

.5 - 8.5 km, thus constrain the depth of the slow earthquakes to comparable depths. The triggering of microearthquakes implies that there is finite probability that a larger earthquake could be triggered, given appropriate stress conditions. In order to better constrain the locations of the slow slip events based solely on geodetic observations, we expand on the simple uniform slip models by adding the effects of distributed slip, layered elastic structure, and topography. There are many difficulties in observing slow slip events on Kilauea volcano. The GPS network only provides displacements on land, which is primarily to the north of the largest slip. The vertical displacement field is essential to understanding the northward extent of the slip, however, the GPS observations of slow slip events are primarily observed in the horizontal component, which have smaller noise levels (~ 3 mm). The maximum vertical deformation from the largest event (2005) was very small (± 9 mm), about the same size as the typical vertical noise. We are exploring the possibility that tiltmeters will allow sufficiently accurate measurements to help identify the northern extent of the slip surface.

Mutiple simultaneous event model for radiation carcinogenesis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Baum, J.W.

1979-01-01

Theoretical Radiobiology and Risk Estimates includes reports on: Multiple Simultaneous Event Model for Radiation Carcinogenesis; Cancer Risk Estimates and Neutron RBE Based on Human Exposures; A Rationale for Nonlinear Dose Response Functions of Power Greater or Less Than One; and Rationale for One Double Event in Model for Radiation Carcinogenesis

Learning to make things happen: Infants' observational learning of social and physical causal events.

Science.gov (United States)

Waismeyer, Anna; Meltzoff, Andrew N

2017-10-01

Infants learn about cause and effect through hands-on experience; however, they also can learn about causality simply from observation. Such observational causal learning is a central mechanism by which infants learn from and about other people. Across three experiments, we tested infants' observational causal learning of both social and physical causal events. Experiment 1 assessed infants' learning of a physical event in the absence of visible spatial contact between the causes and effects. Experiment 2 developed a novel paradigm to assess whether infants could learn about a social causal event from third-party observation of a social interaction between two people. Experiment 3 compared learning of physical and social events when the outcomes occurred probabilistically (happening some, but not all, of the time). Infants demonstrated significant learning in all three experiments, although learning about probabilistic cause-effect relations was most difficult. These findings about infant observational causal learning have implications for children's rapid nonverbal learning about people, things, and their causal relations. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Intense Particulate Pollution Events Observed with Lidar over the Paris Megalopolis

Science.gov (United States)

Chazette, Patrick; Royer, Philippe

2016-06-01

The great particulate pollution event that affected the Paris Megalopolis in March 2014 was due to long-range transport from the northern-northeastern Europe. Although this phenomenon has appeared as exceptional in the media, this is not an exception and similar events have already been observed by lidar measurements. Here we will briefly describe and illustrate the origin of this intense pollution obviously harmful to health.

Intense Particulate Pollution Events Observed with Lidar over the Paris Megalopolis

OpenAIRE

Chazette Patrick; Royer Philippe

2016-01-01

The great particulate pollution event that affected the Paris Megalopolis in March 2014 was due to long-range transport from the northern-northeastern Europe. Although this phenomenon has appeared as exceptional in the media, this is not an exception and similar events have already been observed by lidar measurements. Here we will briefly describe and illustrate the origin of this intense pollution obviously harmful to health.

Charge-dependent correlations from event-by-event anomalous hydrodynamics

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hirono, Yuji [Department of Physics and Astronomy, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY 11794-3800 (United States); Hirano, Tetsufumi [Department of Physics, Sophia University, Tokyo 102-8554 (Japan); Kharzeev, Dmitri E. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY 11794-3800 (United States); Department of Physics and RIKEN-BNL Research Center, Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton, NY 11973-5000 (United States)

2016-12-15

We report on our recent attempt of quantitative modeling of the Chiral Magnetic Effect (CME) in heavy-ion collisions. We perform 3+1 dimensional anomalous hydrodynamic simulations on an event-by-event basis, with constitutive equations that contain the anomaly-induced effects. We also develop a model of the initial condition for the axial charge density that captures the statistical nature of random chirality imbalances created by the color flux tubes. Basing on the event-by-event hydrodynamic simulations for hundreds of thousands of collisions, we calculate the correlation functions that are measured in experiments, and discuss how the anomalous transport affects these observables.

Characterizing Turbulent Events at a Tidal Energy Site from Acoustic Doppler Velocity Observations

Science.gov (United States)

McCaffrey, Katherine; Fox-Kemper, Baylor; Hamlington, Peter

2013-11-01

As interest in marine renewable energy increases, observations are crucial to understanding the environments encountered by energy conversion devices. Data obtained from an acoustic Doppler current profiler and an acoustic Doppler velocimeter at two locations in the Puget Sound, WA are used to perform a detailed analysis of the turbulent environment that is expected to be present at a turbine placed in a tidal strait. Metrics such as turbulence intensity, structure functions, probability density functions, intermittency, coherent turbulence kinetic energy, anisotropy invariants, and linear combinations of eigenvalues are used to characterize the turbulence. The results indicate that coherent turbulence kinetic energy and turbulence intensity can be used to identify and parameterize different turbulent events in the flow. An analysis of the anisotropy characteristics leads to a physical description of turbulent events (defined using both turbulence intensity and coherent turbulent kinetic energy) as being dominated by one component of the Reynolds stresses. During non-turbulent events, the flow is dominated by two Reynolds stress components. The importance of these results for the development of realistic models of energy conversion devices is outlined. Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences.

Intense Particulate Pollution Events Observed with Lidar over the Paris Megalopolis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chazette Patrick

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The great particulate pollution event that affected the Paris Megalopolis in March 2014 was due to long-range transport from the northern-northeastern Europe. Although this phenomenon has appeared as exceptional in the media, this is not an exception and similar events have already been observed by lidar measurements. Here we will briefly describe and illustrate the origin of this intense pollution obviously harmful to health.

Initiating Events Modeling for On-Line Risk Monitoring Application

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Simic, Z.; Mikulicic, V.

1998-01-01

In order to make on-line risk monitoring application of Probabilistic Risk Assessment more complete and realistic, a special attention need to be dedicated to initiating events modeling. Two different issues are of special importance: one is how to model initiating events frequency according to current plant configuration (equipment alignment and out of service status) and operating condition (weather and various activities), and the second is how to preserve dependencies between initiating events model and rest of PRA model. First, the paper will discuss how initiating events can be treated in on-line risk monitoring application. Second, practical example of initiating events modeling in EPRI's Equipment Out of Service on-line monitoring tool will be presented. Gains from application and possible improvements will be discussed in conclusion. (author)

Linking Geomechanical Models with Observations of Microseismicity during CCS Operations

Science.gov (United States)

Verdon, J.; Kendall, J.; White, D.

2012-12-01

During CO2 injection for the purposes of carbon capture and storage (CCS), injection-induced fracturing of the overburden represents a key risk to storage integrity. Fractures in a caprock provide a pathway along which buoyant CO2 can rise and escape the storage zone. Therefore the ability to link field-scale geomechanical models with field geophysical observations is of paramount importance to guarantee secure CO2 storage. Accurate location of microseismic events identifies where brittle failure has occurred on fracture planes. This is a manifestation of the deformation induced by CO2 injection. As the pore pressure is increased during injection, effective stress is decreased, leading to inflation of the reservoir and deformation of surrounding rocks, which creates microseismicity. The deformation induced by injection can be simulated using finite-element mechanical models. Such a model can be used to predict when and where microseismicity is expected to occur. However, typical elements in a field scale mechanical models have decameter scales, while the rupture size for microseismic events are typically of the order of 1 square meter. This means that mapping modeled stress changes to predictions of microseismic activity can be challenging. Where larger scale faults have been identified, they can be included explicitly in the geomechanical model. Where movement is simulated along these discrete features, it can be assumed that microseismicity will occur. However, microseismic events typically occur on fracture networks that are too small to be simulated explicitly in a field-scale model. Therefore, the likelihood of microseismicity occurring must be estimated within a finite element that does not contain explicitly modeled discontinuities. This can be done in a number of ways, including the utilization of measures such as closeness on the stress state to predetermined failure criteria, either for planes with a defined orientation (the Mohr-Coulomb criteria) for

Analysis of operational events by ATHEANA framework for human factor modelling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bedreaga, Luminita; Constntinescu, Cristina; Doca, Cezar; Guzun, Basarab

2007-01-01

In the area of human reliability assessment, the experts recognise the fact that the current methods have not represented correctly the role of human in prevention, initiating and mitigating the accidents in nuclear power plants. The nature of this deficiency appears because the current methods used in modelling of human factor have not taken into account the human performance and reliability such as it has been observed in the operational events. ATHEANA - A Technique for Human Error ANAlysis - is a new methodology for human analysis that has included the specific data of operational events and also psychological models for human behaviour. This method has included new elements such as the unsafe action and error mechanisms. In this paper we present the application of ATHEANA framework in the analysis of operational events that appeared in different nuclear power plants during 1979-2002. The analysis of operational events has consisted of: - identification of the unsafe actions; - including the unsafe actions into a category, omission ar commission; - establishing the type of error corresponding to the unsafe action: slip, lapse, mistake and circumvention; - establishing the influence of performance by shaping the factors and some corrective actions. (authors)

Solar micro-bursts of 22. 2 GHz and their relationship to events observed at lower frequencies

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Blakey, J R [Universidade Mackenzie, Sao Paulo (Brazil). Centro de Radio-Astronomia e Astrofisica

1976-01-01

Observations of McMath region 10433 at 22 GHz using a telescope with a 4 minutes of arc beam during July 1974 revealed the existence events or 'microbursts' with intensities below the sensitivity limit of normal solar patrol instruments. Many of these events were simply the high frequency counterpart of more intense bursts observed at lower frequencies. This note considers the small number of events which suggest that the gyro-synchrotron mechanism alone is incapable of explaining the observations and indicates that a thermal mechanism is needed to explain the high frequency event.

The FU Orionis outburst as a thermal accretion event: Observational constraints for protostellar disk models

Science.gov (United States)

Bell, K. R.; Lin, D. N. C.; Hartmann, L. W.; Kenyon, S. J.

1995-01-01

The results of the time-dependent disk models developed in Bell & Lin are compared with observed properties of FU Orionis variables. Specific models are fit to the light curves of Fu Ori, V1515 Cyg, and V1057 Cyg. The slow risetime of V1515 Cyg can be matched by a self-regulated outburst model. The rapid risetimes of FU Ori and V1057 Cyg can be fitted with the application of modest perturbations to the disk surface density. Model disks display spectral features characteristic of observed objects. The color evolution of V1057 Cyg is naturally explained if mass flux drops in the inner disk (r less than 1/4 AU) while remaining steady in the outer disk. The decrease in optical line width (rotational velocity) observed during the decay of V1057 Cyg may be accounted for by an outward-propagating ionization front. We predict that before final decay to the quiescent phase, short-wavelength line widths (lambda less than 1.5 microns) will again increase. It is suggested that FU Orionis outbursts primarily occur to systems during the embedded phase with ages less than several times 10(exp 5) yr.

Pitfalls in alignment of observation models resolved using PROV as an upper ontology

Science.gov (United States)

Cox, S. J. D.

2015-12-01

A number of models for observation metadata have been developed in the earth and environmental science communities, including OGC's Observations and Measurements (O&M), the ecosystems community's Extensible Observation Ontology (OBOE), the W3C's Semantic Sensor Network Ontology (SSNO), and the CUAHSI/NSF Observations Data Model v2 (ODM2). In order to combine data formalized in the various models, mappings between these must be developed. In some cases this is straightforward: since ODM2 took O&M as its starting point, their terminology is almost completely aligned. In the eco-informatics world observations are almost never made in isolation of other observations, so OBOE pays particular attention to groupings, with multiple atomic 'Measurements' in each oboe:Observation which does not have a result of its own and thus plays a different role to an om:Observation. And while SSN also adopted terminology from O&M, mapping is confounded by the fact that SSN uses DOLCE as its foundation and places ssn:Observations as 'Social Objects' which are explicitly disjoint from 'Events', while O&M is formalized as part of the ISO/TC 211 harmonised (UML) model and sees om:Observations as value assignment activities. Foundational ontologies (such as BFO, GFO, UFO or DOLCE) can provide a framework for alignment, but different upper ontologies can be based in profoundly different worldviews and use of incommensurate frameworks can confound rather than help. A potential resolution is provided by comparing recent studies that align SSN and O&M, respectively, with the PROV-O ontology. PROV-O provides just three base classes: Entity, Activity and Agent. om:Observation is sub-classed from prov:Activity, while ssn:Observation is sub-classed from prov:Entity. This confirms that, despite the same name, om:Observation and ssn:Observation denote different aspects of the observation process: the observation event, and the record of the observation event, respectively. Alignment with the simple

Event generator tunes obtained from underlying event and multiparton scattering measurements

CERN Document Server

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Bernardini, Jacopo; Boccali, Tommaso; Castaldi, Rino; Ciocci, Maria Agnese; Dell'Orso, Roberto; Donato, Silvio; Fedi, Giacomo; Foà, Lorenzo; Giassi, Alessandro; Grippo, Maria Teresa; Ligabue, Franco; Lomtadze, Teimuraz; Martini, Luca; Messineo, Alberto; Palla, Fabrizio; Rizzi, Andrea; Savoy-Navarro, Aurore; Serban, Alin Titus; Spagnolo, Paolo; Tenchini, Roberto; Tonelli, Guido; Venturi, Andrea; Verdini, Piero Giorgio; Barone, Luciano; Cavallari, Francesca; D'imperio, Giulia; Del Re, Daniele; Diemoz, Marcella; Gelli, Simone; Jorda, Clara; Longo, Egidio; Margaroli, Fabrizio; Meridiani, Paolo; Organtini, Giovanni; Paramatti, Riccardo; Preiato, Federico; Rahatlou, Shahram; Rovelli, Chiara; Santanastasio, Francesco; Traczyk, Piotr; Amapane, Nicola; Arcidiacono, Roberta; Argiro, Stefano; Arneodo, Michele; Bellan, Riccardo; Biino, Cristina; Cartiglia, Nicolo; Costa, Marco; Covarelli, Roberto; Degano, Alessandro; Demaria, Natale; Finco, Linda; Kiani, Bilal; Mariotti, Chiara; Maselli, Silvia; Migliore, Ernesto; Monaco, Vincenzo; Monteil, Ennio; Obertino, Maria Margherita; Pacher, Luca; Pastrone, Nadia; Pelliccioni, Mario; Pinna Angioni, Gian Luca; Ravera, Fabio; Romero, Alessandra; Ruspa, Marta; Sacchi, Roberto; Solano, Ada; Staiano, Amedeo; Belforte, Stefano; Candelise, Vieri; Casarsa, Massimo; Cossutti, Fabio; Della Ricca, Giuseppe; Gobbo, Benigno; La Licata, Chiara; Marone, Matteo; Schizzi, Andrea; Zanetti, Anna; Kropivnitskaya, Anna; Nam, Soon-Kwon; Kim, Dong Hee; Kim, Gui Nyun; Kim, Min Suk; Kong, Dae Jung; Lee, Sangeun; Oh, Young Do; Sakharov, Alexandre; Son, Dong-Chul; Brochero Cifuentes, Javier Andres; Kim, Hyunsoo; Kim, Tae Jeong; Song, Sanghyeon; Choi, Suyong; Go, Yeonju; Gyun, Dooyeon; Hong, Byung-Sik; Kim, Hyunchul; Kim, Yongsun; Lee, Byounghoon; Lee, Kisoo; Lee, Kyong Sei; Lee, Songkyo; Park, Sung Keun; Roh, Youn; Yoo, Hwi Dong; Choi, Minkyoo; Kim, Hyunyong; Kim, Ji Hyun; Lee, Jason Sang Hun; Park, Inkyu; Ryu, Geonmo; Ryu, Min Sang; Choi, Young-Il; Goh, Junghwan; Kim, Donghyun; Kwon, Eunhyang; Lee, Jongseok; Yu, Intae; Dudenas, Vytautas; Juodagalvis, Andrius; Vaitkus, Juozas; Ahmed, Ijaz; Ibrahim, Zainol Abidin; Komaragiri, Jyothsna Rani; Md Ali, Mohd Adli Bin; Mohamad Idris, Faridah; Wan Abdullah, Wan Ahmad Tajuddin; Yusli, Mohd Nizam; Casimiro Linares, Edgar; Castilla-Valdez, Heriberto; De La Cruz-Burelo, Eduard; Heredia-De La Cruz, Ivan; Hernandez-Almada, Alberto; Lopez-Fernandez, Ricardo; Sánchez Hernández, Alberto; Carrillo Moreno, Salvador; Vazquez Valencia, Fabiola; Pedraza, Isabel; Salazar Ibarguen, Humberto Antonio; Morelos Pineda, Antonio; Krofcheck, David; Butler, Philip H; Ahmad, Ashfaq; Ahmad, Muhammad; Hassan, Qamar; Hoorani, Hafeez R; Khan, Wajid Ali; Khurshid, Taimoor; Shoaib, Muhammad; Bialkowska, Helena; Bluj, Michal; Boimska, Bożena; Frueboes, Tomasz; Górski, Maciej; Kazana, Malgorzata; Nawrocki, Krzysztof; Romanowska-Rybinska, Katarzyna; Szleper, Michal; Zalewski, Piotr; Brona, Grzegorz; Bunkowski, Karol; Byszuk, Adrian; Doroba, Krzysztof; Kalinowski, Artur; Konecki, Marcin; Krolikowski, Jan; Misiura, Maciej; Olszewski, Michal; Walczak, Marek; Bargassa, Pedrame; Beirão Da Cruz E Silva, Cristóvão; Di Francesco, Agostino; Faccioli, Pietro; Ferreira Parracho, Pedro Guilherme; Gallinaro, Michele; Leonardo, Nuno; Lloret Iglesias, Lara; Nguyen, Federico; Rodrigues Antunes, Joao; Seixas, Joao; Toldaiev, Oleksii; Vadruccio, Daniele; Varela, Joao; Vischia, Pietro; Afanasiev, Serguei; Bunin, Pavel; Gavrilenko, Mikhail; Golutvin, Igor; Gorbunov, Ilya; Kamenev, Alexey; Karjavin, Vladimir; Konoplyanikov, Viktor; Lanev, Alexander; Malakhov, Alexander; Matveev, Viktor; Moisenz, Petr; Palichik, Vladimir; Perelygin, Victor; Shmatov, Sergey; Shulha, Siarhei; Skatchkov, Nikolai; Smirnov, Vitaly; Zarubin, Anatoli; Golovtsov, Victor; Ivanov, Yury; Kim, Victor; Kuznetsova, Ekaterina; Levchenko, Petr; Murzin, Victor; Oreshkin, Vadim; Smirnov, Igor; Sulimov, Valentin; Uvarov, Lev; Vavilov, Sergey; Vorobyev, Alexey; Andreev, Yuri; Dermenev, Alexander; Gninenko, Sergei; Golubev, Nikolai; Karneyeu, Anton; Kirsanov, Mikhail; Krasnikov, Nikolai; Pashenkov, Anatoli; Tlisov, Danila; Toropin, Alexander; Epshteyn, Vladimir; Gavrilov, Vladimir; Lychkovskaya, Natalia; Popov, Vladimir; Pozdnyakov, Ivan; Safronov, Grigory; Spiridonov, Alexander; Vlasov, Evgueni; Zhokin, Alexander; Bylinkin, Alexander; Andreev, Vladimir; Azarkin, Maksim; Dremin, Igor; Kirakosyan, Martin; Leonidov, Andrey; Mesyats, Gennady; Rusakov, Sergey V; Baskakov, Alexey; Belyaev, Andrey; Boos, Edouard; Dubinin, Mikhail; Dudko, Lev; Ershov, Alexander; Gribushin, Andrey; Klyukhin, Vyacheslav; Kodolova, Olga; Lokhtin, Igor; Miagkov, Igor; Obraztsov, Stepan; Petrushanko, Sergey; Savrin, Viktor; Snigirev, Alexander; Azhgirey, Igor; Bayshev, Igor; Bitioukov, Sergei; Kachanov, Vassili; Kalinin, Alexey; Konstantinov, Dmitri; Krychkine, Victor; Petrov, Vladimir; Ryutin, Roman; Sobol, Andrei; Tourtchanovitch, Leonid; Troshin, Sergey; Tyurin, Nikolay; Uzunian, Andrey; Volkov, Alexey; Adzic, Petar; Cirkovic, Predrag; Milosevic, Jovan; Rekovic, Vladimir; Alcaraz Maestre, Juan; Calvo, Enrique; Cerrada, Marcos; Chamizo Llatas, Maria; Colino, Nicanor; De La Cruz, Begona; Delgado Peris, Antonio; Escalante Del Valle, Alberto; Fernandez Bedoya, Cristina; Fernández Ramos, Juan Pablo; Flix, Jose; Fouz, Maria Cruz; Garcia-Abia, Pablo; Gonzalez Lopez, Oscar; Goy Lopez, Silvia; Hernandez, Jose M; Josa, Maria Isabel; Navarro De Martino, Eduardo; Pérez-Calero Yzquierdo, Antonio María; Puerta Pelayo, Jesus; Quintario Olmeda, Adrián; Redondo, Ignacio; Romero, Luciano; Santaolalla, Javier; Senghi Soares, Mara; Albajar, Carmen; de Trocóniz, Jorge F; Missiroli, Marino; Moran, Dermot; Cuevas, Javier; Fernandez Menendez, Javier; Folgueras, Santiago; Gonzalez Caballero, Isidro; Palencia Cortezon, Enrique; Vizan Garcia, Jesus Manuel; Cabrillo, Iban Jose; Calderon, Alicia; Castiñeiras De Saa, Juan Ramon; De Castro Manzano, Pablo; Fernandez, Marcos; Garcia-Ferrero, Juan; Gomez, Gervasio; Lopez Virto, Amparo; Marco, Jesus; Marco, Rafael; Martinez Rivero, Celso; Matorras, Francisco; Piedra Gomez, Jonatan; Rodrigo, Teresa; Rodríguez-Marrero, Ana Yaiza; Ruiz-Jimeno, Alberto; Scodellaro, Luca; Trevisani, Nicolò; Vila, Ivan; Vilar Cortabitarte, Rocio; Abbaneo, Duccio; Auffray, Etiennette; Auzinger, Georg; Bachtis, Michail; Baillon, Paul; Ball, Austin; Barney, David; Benaglia, Andrea; Bendavid, Joshua; Benhabib, Lamia; Benitez, Jose F; Berruti, Gaia Maria; Bloch, Philippe; Bocci, Andrea; Bonato, Alessio; Botta, Cristina; Breuker, Horst; Camporesi, Tiziano; Castello, Roberto; Cerminara, Gianluca; D'Alfonso, Mariarosaria; D'Enterria, David; Dabrowski, Anne; Daponte, Vincenzo; David Tinoco Mendes, Andre; De Gruttola, Michele; De Guio, Federico; De Roeck, Albert; De Visscher, Simon; Di Marco, Emanuele; Dobson, Marc; Dordevic, Milos; Dorney, Brian; Du Pree, Tristan; Duggan, Daniel; Dünser, Marc; Dupont, Niels; Elliott-Peisert, Anna; Franzoni, Giovanni; Fulcher, Jonathan; Funk, Wolfgang; Gigi, Dominique; Gill, Karl; Giordano, Domenico; Girone, Maria; Glege, Frank; Guida, Roberto; Gundacker, Stefan; Guthoff, Moritz; Hammer, Josef; Harris, Philip; Hegeman, Jeroen; Innocente, Vincenzo; Janot, Patrick; Kirschenmann, Henning; Kortelainen, Matti J; Kousouris, Konstantinos; Krajczar, Krisztian; Lecoq, Paul; Lourenco, Carlos; Lucchini, Marco Toliman; Magini, Nicolo; Malgeri, Luca; Mannelli, Marcello; Martelli, Arabella; Masetti, Lorenzo; Meijers, Frans; Mersi, Stefano; Meschi, Emilio; Moortgat, Filip; Morovic, Srecko; Mulders, Martijn; Nemallapudi, Mythra Varun; Neugebauer, Hannes; Orfanelli, Styliani; Orsini, Luciano; Pape, Luc; Perez, Emmanuelle; Peruzzi, Marco; Petrilli, Achille; Petrucciani, Giovanni; Pfeiffer, Andreas; Piparo, Danilo; Racz, Attila; Reis, Thomas; Rolandi, Gigi; Rovere, Marco; Ruan, Manqi; Sakulin, Hannes; Schäfer, Christoph; Schwick, Christoph; Seidel, Markus; Sharma, Archana; Silva, Pedro; Simon, Michal; Sphicas, Paraskevas; Steggemann, Jan; Stieger, Benjamin; Stoye, Markus; Takahashi, Yuta; Treille, Daniel; Triossi, Andrea; Tsirou, Andromachi; Veres, Gabor Istvan; Wardle, Nicholas; Wöhri, Hermine Katharina; Zagoździńska, Agnieszka; Zeuner, Wolfram Dietrich; Bertl, Willi; Deiters, Konrad; Erdmann, Wolfram; Horisberger, Roland; Ingram, Quentin; Kaestli, Hans-Christian; Kotlinski, Danek; Langenegger, Urs; Renker, Dieter; Rohe, Tilman; Bachmair, Felix; Bäni, Lukas; Bianchini, Lorenzo; Casal, Bruno; Dissertori, Günther; Dittmar, Michael; Donegà, Mauro; Eller, Philipp; Grab, Christoph; Heidegger, Constantin; Hits, Dmitry; Hoss, Jan; Kasieczka, Gregor; Lustermann, Werner; Mangano, Boris; Marionneau, Matthieu; Martinez Ruiz del Arbol, Pablo; Masciovecchio, Mario; Meister, Daniel; Micheli, Francesco; Musella, Pasquale; Nessi-Tedaldi, Francesca; Pandolfi, Francesco; Pata, Joosep; Pauss, Felicitas; Perrozzi, Luca; Quittnat, Milena; Rossini, Marco; Starodumov, Andrei; Takahashi, Maiko; Tavolaro, Vittorio Raoul; Theofilatos, Konstantinos; Wallny, Rainer; Aarrestad, Thea Klaeboe; Amsler, Claude; Caminada, Lea; Canelli, Maria Florencia; Chiochia, Vincenzo; De Cosa, Annapaola; Galloni, Camilla; Hinzmann, Andreas; Hreus, Tomas; Kilminster, Benjamin; Lange, Clemens; Ngadiuba, Jennifer; Pinna, Deborah; Robmann, Peter; Ronga, Frederic Jean; Salerno, Daniel; Yang, Yong; Cardaci, Marco; Chen, Kuan-Hsin; Doan, Thi Hien; Jain, Shilpi; Khurana, Raman; Konyushikhin, Maxim; Kuo, Chia-Ming; Lin, Willis; Lu, Yun-Ju; Yu, Shin-Shan; Kumar, Arun; Bartek, Rachel; Chang, Paoti; Chang, You-Hao; Chang, Yu-Wei; Chao, Yuan; Chen, Kai-Feng; Chen, Po-Hsun; Dietz, Charles; Fiori, Francesco; Grundler, Ulysses; Hou, George Wei-Shu; Hsiung, Yee; Liu, Yueh-Feng; Lu, Rong-Shyang; Miñano Moya, Mercedes; Petrakou, Eleni; Tsai, Jui-fa; Tzeng, Yeng-Ming; Asavapibhop, Burin; Kovitanggoon, Kittikul; Singh, Gurpreet; Srimanobhas, Norraphat; Suwonjandee, Narumon; Adiguzel, Aytul; Bakirci, Mustafa Numan; Cerci, Salim; Demiroglu, Zuhal Seyma; Dozen, Candan; Eskut, Eda; Gecit, Fehime Hayal; Girgis, Semiray; Gokbulut, Gul; Guler, Yalcin; Gurpinar, Emine; Hos, Ilknur; Kangal, Evrim Ersin; Onengut, Gulsen; Ozcan, Merve; Ozdemir, Kadri; Polatoz, Ayse; Sunar Cerci, Deniz; Topakli, Huseyin; Vergili, Mehmet; Zorbilmez, Caglar; Akin, Ilina Vasileva; Bilin, Bugra; Bilmis, Selcuk; Isildak, Bora; Karapinar, Guler; Yalvac, Metin; Zeyrek, Mehmet; Gülmez, Erhan; Kaya, Mithat; Kaya, Ozlem; Yetkin, Elif Asli; Yetkin, Taylan; Cakir, Altan; Cankocak, Kerem; Sen, Sercan; Vardarlı, Fuat Ilkehan; Grynyov, Boris; Levchuk, Leonid; Sorokin, Pavel; Aggleton, Robin; Ball, Fionn; Beck, Lana; Brooke, James John; Clement, Emyr; Cussans, David; Flacher, Henning; Goldstein, Joel; Grimes, Mark; Heath, Greg P; Heath, Helen F; Jacob, Jeson; Kreczko, Lukasz; Lucas, Chris; Meng, Zhaoxia; Newbold, Dave M; Paramesvaran, Sudarshan; Poll, Anthony; Sakuma, Tai; Seif El Nasr-storey, Sarah; Senkin, Sergey; Smith, Dominic; Smith, Vincent J; Bell, Ken W; Belyaev, Alexander; Brew, Christopher; Brown, Robert M; Calligaris, Luigi; Cieri, Davide; Cockerill, David JA; Coughlan, John A; Harder, Kristian; Harper, Sam; Olaiya, Emmanuel; Petyt, David; Shepherd-Themistocleous, Claire; Thea, Alessandro; Tomalin, Ian R; Williams, Thomas; Worm, Steven; Baber, Mark; Bainbridge, Robert; Buchmuller, Oliver; Bundock, Aaron; Burton, Darren; Casasso, Stefano; Citron, Matthew; Colling, David; Corpe, Louie; Cripps, Nicholas; Dauncey, Paul; Davies, Gavin; De Wit, Adinda; Della Negra, Michel; Dunne, Patrick; Elwood, Adam; Ferguson, William; Futyan, David; Hall, Geoffrey; Iles, Gregory; Kenzie, Matthew; Lane, Rebecca; Lucas, Robyn; Lyons, Louis; Magnan, Anne-Marie; Malik, Sarah; Nash, Jordan; Nikitenko, Alexander; Pela, Joao; Pesaresi, Mark; Petridis, Konstantinos; Raymond, David Mark; Richards, Alexander; Rose, Andrew; Seez, Christopher; Tapper, Alexander; Uchida, Kirika; Vazquez Acosta, Monica; Virdee, Tejinder; Zenz, Seth Conrad; Cole, Joanne; Hobson, Peter R; Khan, Akram; Kyberd, Paul; Leggat, Duncan; Leslie, Dawn; Reid, Ivan; Symonds, Philip; Teodorescu, Liliana; Turner, Mark; Borzou, Ahmad; Call, Kenneth; Dittmann, Jay; Hatakeyama, Kenichi; Liu, Hongxuan; Pastika, Nathaniel; Charaf, Otman; Cooper, Seth; Henderson, Conor; Rumerio, Paolo; Arcaro, Daniel; Avetisyan, Aram; Bose, Tulika; Fantasia, Cory; Gastler, Daniel; Lawson, Philip; Rankin, Dylan; Richardson, Clint; Rohlf, James; St John, Jason; Sulak, Lawrence; Zou, David; Alimena, Juliette; Berry, Edmund; Bhattacharya, Saptaparna; Cutts, David; Dhingra, Nitish; Ferapontov, Alexey; Garabedian, Alex; Hakala, John; Heintz, Ulrich; Laird, Edward; Landsberg, Greg; Mao, Zaixing; Narain, Meenakshi; Piperov, Stefan; Sagir, Sinan; Syarif, Rizki; Breedon, Richard; Breto, Guillermo; Calderon De La Barca Sanchez, Manuel; Chauhan, Sushil; Chertok, Maxwell; Conway, John; Conway, Rylan; Cox, Peter Timothy; Erbacher, Robin; Funk, Garrett; Gardner, Michael; Ko, Winston; Lander, Richard; Mulhearn, Michael; Pellett, Dave; Pilot, Justin; Ricci-Tam, Francesca; Shalhout, Shalhout; Smith, John; Squires, Michael; Stolp, Dustin; Tripathi, Mani; Wilbur, Scott; Yohay, Rachel; Bravo, Cameron; Cousins, Robert; Everaerts, Pieter; Farrell, Chris; Florent, Alice; Hauser, Jay; Ignatenko, Mikhail; Saltzberg, David; Schnaible, Christian; Takasugi, Eric; Valuev, Vyacheslav; Weber, Matthias; Burt, Kira; Clare, Robert; Ellison, John Anthony; Gary, J William; Hanson, Gail; Heilman, Jesse; Ivova PANEVA, Mirena; Jandir, Pawandeep; Kennedy, Elizabeth; Lacroix, Florent; Long, Owen Rosser; Luthra, Arun; Malberti, Martina; Olmedo Negrete, Manuel; Shrinivas, Amithabh; Wei, Hua; Wimpenny, Stephen; Yates, Brent; Branson, James G; Cerati, Giuseppe Benedetto; Cittolin, Sergio; D'Agnolo, Raffaele Tito; Derdzinski, Mark; Holzner, André; Kelley, Ryan; Klein, Daniel; Letts, James; Macneill, Ian; Olivito, Dominick; Padhi, Sanjay; Pieri, Marco; Sani, Matteo; Sharma, Vivek; Simon, Sean; Tadel, Matevz; Vartak, Adish; Wasserbaech, Steven; Welke, Charles; Würthwein, Frank; Yagil, Avraham; Zevi Della Porta, Giovanni; Bradmiller-Feld, John; Campagnari, Claudio; Dishaw, Adam; Dutta, Valentina; Flowers, Kristen; Franco Sevilla, Manuel; Geffert, Paul; George, Christopher; Golf, Frank; Gouskos, Loukas; Gran, Jason; Incandela, Joe; Mccoll, Nickolas; Mullin, Sam Daniel; Richman, Jeffrey; Stuart, David; Suarez, Indara; West, Christopher; Yoo, Jaehyeok; Anderson, Dustin; Apresyan, Artur; Bornheim, Adolf; Bunn, Julian; Chen, Yi; Duarte, Javier; Mott, Alexander; Newman, Harvey B; Pena, Cristian; Pierini, Maurizio; Spiropulu, Maria; Vlimant, Jean-Roch; Xie, Si; Zhu, Ren-Yuan; Andrews, Michael Benjamin; Azzolini, Virginia; Calamba, Aristotle; Carlson, Benjamin; Ferguson, Thomas; Paulini, Manfred; Russ, James; Sun, Menglei; Vogel, Helmut; Vorobiev, Igor; Cumalat, John Perry; Ford, William T; Gaz, Alessandro; Jensen, Frank; Johnson, Andrew; Krohn, Michael; Mulholland, Troy; Nauenberg, Uriel; Stenson, Kevin; Wagner, Stephen Robert; Alexander, James; Chatterjee, Avishek; Chaves, Jorge; Chu, Jennifer; Dittmer, Susan; Eggert, Nicholas; Mirman, Nathan; Nicolas Kaufman, Gala; Patterson, Juliet Ritchie; Rinkevicius, Aurelijus; Ryd, Anders; Skinnari, Louise; Soffi, Livia; Sun, Werner; Tan, Shao Min; Teo, Wee Don; Thom, Julia; Thompson, Joshua; Tucker, Jordan; Weng, Yao; Wittich, Peter; Abdullin, Salavat; Albrow, Michael; Apollinari, Giorgio; Banerjee, Sunanda; Bauerdick, Lothar AT; Beretvas, Andrew; Berryhill, Jeffrey; Bhat, Pushpalatha C; Bolla, Gino; Burkett, Kevin; Butler, Joel Nathan; Cheung, Harry; Chlebana, Frank; Cihangir, Selcuk; Elvira, Victor Daniel; Fisk, Ian; Freeman, Jim; Gottschalk, Erik; Gray, Lindsey; Green, Dan; Grünendahl, Stefan; Gutsche, Oliver; Hanlon, Jim; Hare, Daryl; Harris, Robert M; Hasegawa, Satoshi; Hirschauer, James; Hu, Zhen; Jayatilaka, Bodhitha; Jindariani, Sergo; Johnson, Marvin; Joshi, Umesh; Jung, Andreas Werner; Klima, Boaz; Kreis, Benjamin; Lammel, Stephan; Linacre, Jacob; Lincoln, Don; Lipton, Ron; Liu, Tiehui; Lopes De Sá, Rafael; Lykken, Joseph; Maeshima, Kaori; Marraffino, John Michael; Martinez Outschoorn, Verena Ingrid; Maruyama, Sho; Mason, David; McBride, Patricia; Merkel, Petra; Mishra, Kalanand; Mrenna, Stephen; Nahn, Steve; Newman-Holmes, Catherine; O'Dell, Vivian; Pedro, Kevin; Prokofyev, Oleg; Rakness, Gregory; Sexton-Kennedy, Elizabeth; Soha, Aron; Spalding, William J; Spiegel, Leonard; Strobbe, Nadja; Taylor, Lucas; Tkaczyk, Slawek; Tran, Nhan Viet; Uplegger, Lorenzo; Vaandering, Eric Wayne; Vernieri, Caterina; Verzocchi, Marco; Vidal, Richard; Weber, Hannsjoerg Artur; Whitbeck, Andrew; Acosta, Darin; Avery, Paul; Bortignon, Pierluigi; Bourilkov, Dimitri; Carnes, Andrew; Carver, Matthew; Curry, David; Das, Souvik; Field, Richard D; Furic, Ivan-Kresimir; Gleyzer, Sergei V; Hugon, Justin; Konigsberg, Jacobo; Korytov, Andrey; Kotov, Khristian; Low, Jia Fu; Ma, Peisen; Matchev, Konstantin; Mei, Hualin; Milenovic, Predrag; Mitselmakher, Guenakh; Rank, Douglas; Rossin, Roberto; Shchutska, Lesya; Snowball, Matthew; Sperka, David; Terentyev, Nikolay; Thomas, Laurent; Wang, Jian; Wang, Sean-Jiun; Yelton, John; Hewamanage, Samantha; Linn, Stephan; Markowitz, Pete; Martinez, German; Rodriguez, Jorge Luis; Ackert, Andrew; Adams, Jordon Rowe; Adams, Todd; Askew, Andrew; Bein, Samuel; Bochenek, Joseph; Diamond, Brendan; Haas, Jeff; Hagopian, Sharon; Hagopian, Vasken; Johnson, Kurtis F; Khatiwada, Ajeeta; Prosper, Harrison; Weinberg, Marc; Baarmand, Marc M; Bhopatkar, Vallary; Colafranceschi, Stefano; Hohlmann, Marcus; Kalakhety, Himali; Noonan, Daniel; Roy, Titas; Yumiceva, Francisco; Adams, Mark Raymond; Apanasevich, Leonard; Berry, Douglas; Betts, Russell Richard; Bucinskaite, Inga; Cavanaugh, Richard; Evdokimov, Olga; Gauthier, Lucie; Gerber, Cecilia Elena; Hofman, David Jonathan; Kurt, Pelin; O'Brien, Christine; Sandoval Gonzalez, Irving Daniel; Silkworth, Christopher; Turner, Paul; Varelas, Nikos; Wu, Zhenbin; Zakaria, Mohammed; Bilki, Burak; Clarida, Warren; Dilsiz, Kamuran; Durgut, Süleyman; Gandrajula, Reddy Pratap; Haytmyradov, Maksat; Khristenko, Viktor; Merlo, Jean-Pierre; Mermerkaya, Hamit; Mestvirishvili, Alexi; Moeller, Anthony; Nachtman, Jane; Ogul, Hasan; Onel, Yasar; Ozok, Ferhat; Penzo, Aldo; Snyder, Christina; Tiras, Emrah; Wetzel, James; Yi, Kai; Anderson, Ian; Barnett, Bruce Arnold; Blumenfeld, Barry; Eminizer, Nicholas; Fehling, David; Feng, Lei; Gritsan, Andrei; Maksimovic, Petar; Martin, Christopher; Osherson, Marc; Roskes, Jeffrey; Cocoros, Alice; Sarica, Ulascan; Swartz, Morris; Xiao, Meng; Xin, Yongjie; You, Can; Baringer, Philip; Bean, Alice; Benelli, Gabriele; Bruner, Christopher; Kenny III, Raymond Patrick; Majumder, Devdatta; Malek, Magdalena; Murray, Michael; Sanders, Stephen; Stringer, Robert; Wang, Quan; Ivanov, Andrew; Kaadze, Ketino; Khalil, Sadia; Makouski, Mikhail; Maravin, Yurii; Mohammadi, Abdollah; Saini, Lovedeep Kaur; Skhirtladze, Nikoloz; Toda, Sachiko; Lange, David; Rebassoo, Finn; Wright, Douglas; Anelli, Christopher; Baden, Drew; Baron, Owen; Belloni, Alberto; Calvert, Brian; Eno, Sarah Catherine; Ferraioli, Charles; Gomez, Jaime; Hadley, Nicholas John; Jabeen, Shabnam; Kellogg, Richard G; Kolberg, Ted; Kunkle, Joshua; Lu, Ying; Mignerey, Alice; Shin, Young Ho; Skuja, Andris; Tonjes, Marguerite; Tonwar, Suresh C; Apyan, Aram; Barbieri, Richard; Baty, Austin; Bierwagen, Katharina; Brandt, Stephanie; Busza, Wit; Cali, Ivan Amos; Demiragli, Zeynep; Di Matteo, Leonardo; Gomez Ceballos, Guillelmo; Goncharov, Maxim; Gulhan, Doga; Iiyama, Yutaro; Innocenti, Gian Michele; Klute, Markus; Kovalskyi, Dmytro; Lai, Yue Shi; Lee, Yen-Jie; Levin, Andrew; Luckey, Paul David; Marini, Andrea Carlo; Mcginn, Christopher; Mironov, Camelia; Narayanan, Siddharth; Niu, Xinmei; Paus, Christoph; Ralph, Duncan; Roland, Christof; Roland, Gunther; Salfeld-Nebgen, Jakob; Stephans, George; Sumorok, Konstanty; Varma, Mukund; Velicanu, Dragos; Veverka, Jan; Wang, Jing; Wang, Ta-Wei; Wyslouch, Bolek; Yang, Mingming; Zhukova, Victoria; Dahmes, Bryan; Evans, Andrew; Finkel, Alexey; Gude, Alexander; Hansen, Peter; Kalafut, Sean; Kao, Shih-Chuan; Klapoetke, Kevin; Kubota, Yuichi; Lesko, Zachary; Mans, Jeremy; Nourbakhsh, Shervin; Ruckstuhl, Nicole; Rusack, Roger; Tambe, Norbert; Turkewitz, Jared; Acosta, John Gabriel; Oliveros, Sandra; Avdeeva, Ekaterina; Bloom, Kenneth; Bose, Suvadeep; Claes, Daniel R; Dominguez, Aaron; Fangmeier, Caleb; Gonzalez Suarez, Rebeca; Kamalieddin, Rami; Keller, Jason; Knowlton, Dan; Kravchenko, Ilya; Meier, Frank; Monroy, Jose; Ratnikov, Fedor; Siado, Joaquin Emilo; Snow, Gregory R; Alyari, Maral; Dolen, James; George, Jimin; Godshalk, Andrew; Harrington, Charles; Iashvili, Ia; Kaisen, Josh; Kharchilava, Avto; Kumar, Ashish; Rappoccio, Salvatore; Roozbahani, Bahareh; Alverson, George; Barberis, Emanuela; Baumgartel, Darin; Chasco, Matthew; Hortiangtham, Apichart; Massironi, Andrea; Morse, David Michael; Nash, David; Orimoto, Toyoko; Teixeira De Lima, Rafael; Trocino, Daniele; Wang, Ren-Jie; Wood, Darien; Zhang, Jinzhong; Hahn, Kristan Allan; Kubik, Andrew; Mucia, Nicholas; Odell, Nathaniel; Pollack, Brian; Pozdnyakov, Andrey; Schmitt, Michael Henry; Stoynev, Stoyan; Sung, Kevin; Trovato, Marco; Velasco, Mayda; Brinkerhoff, Andrew; Dev, Nabarun; Hildreth, Michael; Jessop, Colin; Karmgard, Daniel John; Kellams, Nathan; Lannon, Kevin; Marinelli, Nancy; Meng, Fanbo; Mueller, Charles; Musienko, Yuri; Planer, Michael; Reinsvold, Allison; Ruchti, Randy; Smith, Geoffrey; Taroni, Silvia; Valls, Nil; Wayne, Mitchell; Wolf, Matthias; Woodard, Anna; Antonelli, Louis; Brinson, Jessica; Bylsma, Ben; Durkin, Lloyd Stanley; Flowers, Sean; Hart, Andrew; Hill, Christopher; Hughes, Richard; Ji, Weifeng; Ling, Ta-Yung; Liu, Bingxuan; Luo, Wuming; Puigh, Darren; Rodenburg, Marissa; Winer, Brian L; Wulsin, Howard Wells; Driga, Olga; Elmer, Peter; Hardenbrook, Joshua; Hebda, Philip; Koay, Sue Ann; Lujan, Paul; Marlow, Daniel; Medvedeva, Tatiana; Mooney, Michael; Olsen, James; Palmer, Christopher; Piroué, Pierre; Saka, Halil; Stickland, David; Tully, Christopher; Zuranski, Andrzej; Malik, Sudhir; Barnes, Virgil E; Benedetti, Daniele; Bortoletto, Daniela; Gutay, Laszlo; Jha, Manoj; Jones, Matthew; Jung, Kurt; Miller, David Harry; Neumeister, Norbert; Radburn-Smith, Benjamin Charles; Shi, Xin; Shipsey, Ian; Silvers, David; Sun, Jian; Svyatkovskiy, Alexey; Wang, Fuqiang; Xie, Wei; Xu, Lingshan; Parashar, Neeti; Stupak, John; Adair, Antony; Akgun, Bora; Chen, Zhenyu; Ecklund, Karl Matthew; Geurts, Frank JM; Guilbaud, Maxime; Li, Wei; Michlin, Benjamin; Northup, Michael; Padley, Brian Paul; Redjimi, Radia; Roberts, Jay; Rorie, Jamal; Tu, Zhoudunming; Zabel, James; Betchart, Burton; Bodek, Arie; de Barbaro, Pawel; Demina, Regina; Eshaq, Yossof; Ferbel, Thomas; Galanti, Mario; Garcia-Bellido, Aran; Han, Jiyeon; Harel, Amnon; Hindrichs, Otto; Khukhunaishvili, Aleko; Petrillo, Gianluca; Tan, Ping; Verzetti, Mauro; Arora, Sanjay; Barker, Anthony; Chou, John Paul; Contreras-Campana, Christian; Contreras-Campana, Emmanuel; Ferencek, Dinko; Gershtein, Yuri; Gray, Richard; Halkiadakis, Eva; Hidas, Dean; Hughes, Elliot; Kaplan, Steven; Kunnawalkam Elayavalli, Raghav; Lath, Amitabh; Nash, Kevin; Panwalkar, Shruti; Park, Michael; Salur, Sevil; Schnetzer, Steve; Sheffield, David; Somalwar, Sunil; Stone, Robert; Thomas, Scott; Thomassen, Peter; Walker, Matthew; Foerster, Mark; Riley, Grant; Rose, Keith; Spanier, Stefan; York, Andrew; Bouhali, Othmane; Castaneda Hernandez, Alfredo; Celik, Ali; Dalchenko, Mykhailo; De Mattia, Marco; Delgado, Andrea; Dildick, Sven; Eusebi, Ricardo; Gilmore, Jason; Huang, Tao; Kamon, Teruki; Krutelyov, Vyacheslav; Mueller, Ryan; Osipenkov, Ilya; Pakhotin, Yuriy; Patel, Rishi; Perloff, Alexx; Rose, Anthony; Safonov, Alexei; Tatarinov, Aysen; Ulmer, Keith; Akchurin, Nural; Cowden, Christopher; Damgov, Jordan; Dragoiu, Cosmin; Dudero, Phillip Russell; Faulkner, James; Kunori, Shuichi; Lamichhane, Kamal; Lee, Sung Won; Libeiro, Terence; Undleeb, Sonaina; Volobouev, Igor; Appelt, Eric; Delannoy, Andrés G; Greene, Senta; Gurrola, Alfredo; Janjam, Ravi; Johns, Willard; Maguire, Charles; Mao, Yaxian; Melo, Andrew; Ni, Hong; Sheldon, Paul; Snook, Benjamin; Tuo, Shengquan; Velkovska, Julia; Xu, Qiao; Arenton, Michael Wayne; Cox, Bradley; Francis, Brian; Goodell, Joseph; Hirosky, Robert; Ledovskoy, Alexander; Li, Hengne; Lin, Chuanzhe; Neu, Christopher; Sinthuprasith, Tutanon; Sun, Xin; Wang, Yanchu; Wolfe, Evan; Wood, John; Xia, Fan; Clarke, Christopher; Harr, Robert; Karchin, Paul Edmund; Kottachchi Kankanamge Don, Chamath; Lamichhane, Pramod; Sturdy, Jared; Belknap, Donald; Carlsmith, Duncan; Cepeda, Maria; Dasu, Sridhara; Dodd, Laura; Duric, Senka; Gomber, Bhawna; Grothe, Monika; Hall-Wilton, Richard; Herndon, Matthew; Hervé, Alain; Klabbers, Pamela; Lanaro, Armando; Levine, Aaron; Long, Kenneth; Loveless, Richard; Mohapatra, Ajit; Ojalvo, Isabel; Perry, Thomas; Pierro, Giuseppe Antonio; Polese, Giovanni; Ruggles, Tyler; Sarangi, Tapas; Savin, Alexander; Sharma, Archana; Smith, Nicholas; Smith, Wesley H; Taylor, Devin; Woods, Nathaniel

2016-03-17

New sets of parameters (``tunes'') for the underlying-event (UE) modeling of the PYTHIA8, PYTHIA6 and HERWIG++ Monte Carlo event generators are constructed using different parton distribution functions. Combined fits to CMS UE data at $\\sqrt{s} =$ 7 TeV and to UE data from the CDF experiment at lower $\\sqrt{s}$, are used to study the UE models and constrain their parameters, providing thereby improved predictions for proton-proton collisions at 13 TeV. In addition, it is investigated whether the values of the parameters obtained from fits to UE observables are consistent with the values determined from fitting observables sensitive to double-parton scattering processes. Finally, comparisons of the UE tunes to ``minimum bias'' (MB) events, multijet, and Drell--Yan ($ \\mathrm{ q \\bar{q} } \\rightarrow \\mathrm{Z} / \\gamma^* \\rightarrow$ lepton-antilepton + jets) observables at 7 and 8 TeV are presented, as well as predictions of MB and UE observables at 13 TeV.

Modelling machine ensembles with discrete event dynamical system theory

Science.gov (United States)

Hunter, Dan

1990-01-01

Discrete Event Dynamical System (DEDS) theory can be utilized as a control strategy for future complex machine ensembles that will be required for in-space construction. The control strategy involves orchestrating a set of interactive submachines to perform a set of tasks for a given set of constraints such as minimum time, minimum energy, or maximum machine utilization. Machine ensembles can be hierarchically modeled as a global model that combines the operations of the individual submachines. These submachines are represented in the global model as local models. Local models, from the perspective of DEDS theory , are described by the following: a set of system and transition states, an event alphabet that portrays actions that takes a submachine from one state to another, an initial system state, a partial function that maps the current state and event alphabet to the next state, and the time required for the event to occur. Each submachine in the machine ensemble is presented by a unique local model. The global model combines the local models such that the local models can operate in parallel under the additional logistic and physical constraints due to submachine interactions. The global model is constructed from the states, events, event functions, and timing requirements of the local models. Supervisory control can be implemented in the global model by various methods such as task scheduling (open-loop control) or implementing a feedback DEDS controller (closed-loop control).

Analysis hierarchical model for discrete event systems

Science.gov (United States)

Ciortea, E. M.

2015-11-01

The This paper presents the hierarchical model based on discrete event network for robotic systems. Based on the hierarchical approach, Petri network is analysed as a network of the highest conceptual level and the lowest level of local control. For modelling and control of complex robotic systems using extended Petri nets. Such a system is structured, controlled and analysed in this paper by using Visual Object Net ++ package that is relatively simple and easy to use, and the results are shown as representations easy to interpret. The hierarchical structure of the robotic system is implemented on computers analysed using specialized programs. Implementation of hierarchical model discrete event systems, as a real-time operating system on a computer network connected via a serial bus is possible, where each computer is dedicated to local and Petri model of a subsystem global robotic system. Since Petri models are simplified to apply general computers, analysis, modelling, complex manufacturing systems control can be achieved using Petri nets. Discrete event systems is a pragmatic tool for modelling industrial systems. For system modelling using Petri nets because we have our system where discrete event. To highlight the auxiliary time Petri model using transport stream divided into hierarchical levels and sections are analysed successively. Proposed robotic system simulation using timed Petri, offers the opportunity to view the robotic time. Application of goods or robotic and transmission times obtained by measuring spot is obtained graphics showing the average time for transport activity, using the parameters sets of finished products. individually.

Modeling extreme (Carrington-type) space weather events using three-dimensional MHD code simulations

Science.gov (United States)

Ngwira, C. M.; Pulkkinen, A. A.; Kuznetsova, M. M.; Glocer, A.

2013-12-01

There is growing concern over possible severe societal consequences related to adverse space weather impacts on man-made technological infrastructure and systems. In the last two decades, significant progress has been made towards the modeling of space weather events. Three-dimensional (3-D) global magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) models have been at the forefront of this transition, and have played a critical role in advancing our understanding of space weather. However, the modeling of extreme space weather events is still a major challenge even for existing global MHD models. In this study, we introduce a specially adapted University of Michigan 3-D global MHD model for simulating extreme space weather events that have a ground footprint comparable (or larger) to the Carrington superstorm. Results are presented for an initial simulation run with ``very extreme'' constructed/idealized solar wind boundary conditions driving the magnetosphere. In particular, we describe the reaction of the magnetosphere-ionosphere system and the associated ground induced geoelectric field to such extreme driving conditions. We also discuss the results and what they might mean for the accuracy of the simulations. The model is further tested using input data for an observed space weather event to verify the MHD model consistence and to draw guidance for future work. This extreme space weather MHD model is designed specifically for practical application to the modeling of extreme geomagnetically induced electric fields, which can drive large currents in earth conductors such as power transmission grids.

Free-choice family learning experiences at informal astronomy observing events

Science.gov (United States)

Wenger, Matthew C.

This qualitative study is an exploratory look at family experiences at night time telescope observing events, often called star parties. Four families participated in this study which looked at their expectations, experiences and agendas as well as the roles that identity and family culture played in the negotiation of meaning. Two families who had prior experience with attending star parties were recruited ahead of time and two other families who were first time visitors were recruited on-site at the observing event. Data were collected at two star parties. At each event, one experienced family was paired with an on-site family for the purposes of facilitating conversations about expectations and prior experiences. The results of this study showed that learning is constantly occurring among families, and that star parties and family culture were mediational means for making meaning. Expectations and agendas were found to affect the families' star party experiences and differences were observed between the expectations and experiences of families based on their prior experiences with star parties. These data also showed that family members are actively negotiating their individual and family identities. These families use their cultural history together to make sense of their star party experiences; however, the meaning that families were negotiating was often focused more on developing family and individual identity rather than science content. The families in this study used the star party context as a way to connect with each other, to make sense of their prior experiences, and as raw material for making sense of future experiences.

Energetic electron precipitation characteristics observed from Antarctica during a flux dropout event

Science.gov (United States)

Clilverd, Mark A.; Cobbett, Neil; Rodger, Craig J.; Brundell, James B.; Denton, Michael H.; Hartley, David P.; Rodriguez, Juan V.; Danskin, Donald; Raita, Tero; Spanswick, Emma L.

2013-11-01

from two autonomous VLF radio receiver systems installed in a remote region of the Antarctic in 2012 is used to take advantage of the juxtaposition of the L = 4.6 contour, and the Hawaii-Halley, Antarctica, great circle path as it passes over thick Antarctic ice shelf. The ice sheet conductivity leads to high sensitivity to changing D region conditions, and the quasi constant L shell highlights outer radiation belt processes. The ground-based instruments observed several energetic electron precipitation events over a moderately active 24 h period, during which the outer radiation belt electron flux declined at most energies and subsequently recovered. Combining the ground-based data with low and geosynchronous orbiting satellite observations on 27 February 2012, different driving mechanisms were observed for three precipitation events with clear signatures in phase space density and electron anisotropy. Comparison between flux measurements made by Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellites (POES) in low Earth orbit and by the Antarctic instrumentation provides evidence of different cases of weak and strong diffusion into the bounce loss cone, helping to understand the physical mechanisms controlling the precipitation of energetic electrons into the atmosphere. Strong diffusion events occurred as the bounce loss cone. Two events had a factor of about 3 to 10 times more >30 keV flux than was reported by POES, more consistent with strong diffusion conditions.

Design and Use of the Simple Event Model (SEM)

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Hage, W.R.; Malaisé, V.; Segers, R.H.; Hollink, L.

2011-01-01

Events have become central elements in the representation of data from domains such as history, cultural heritage, multimedia and geography. The Simple Event Model (SEM) is created to model events in these various domains, without making assumptions about the domain-specific vocabularies used. SEM

Characterizing Drought Events from a Hydrological Model Ensemble

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, Katie; Parry, Simon; Prudhomme, Christel; Hannaford, Jamie; Tanguy, Maliko; Barker, Lucy; Svensson, Cecilia

2017-04-01

Hydrological droughts are a slow onset natural hazard that can affect large areas. Within the United Kingdom there have been eight major drought events over the last 50 years, with several events acting at the continental scale, and covering the entire nation. Many of these events have lasted several years and had significant impacts on agriculture, the environment and the economy. Generally in the UK, due to a northwest-southeast gradient in rainfall and relief, as well as varying underlying geology, droughts tend to be most severe in the southeast, which can threaten water supplies to the capital in London. With the impacts of climate change likely to increase the severity and duration of drought events worldwide, it is crucial that we gain an understanding of the characteristics of some of the longer and more extreme droughts of the 19th and 20th centuries, so we may utilize this information in planning for the future. Hydrological models are essential both for reconstructing such events that predate streamflow records, and for use in drought forecasting. However, whilst the uncertainties involved in modelling hydrological extremes on the flooding end of the flow regime have been studied in depth over the past few decades, the uncertainties in simulating droughts and low flow events have not yet received such rigorous academic attention. The "Cascade of Uncertainty" approach has been applied to explore uncertainty and coherence across simulations of notable drought events from the past 50 years using the airGR family of daily lumped catchment models. Parameter uncertainty has been addressed using a Latin Hypercube sampled experiment of 500,000 parameter sets per model (GR4J, GR5J and GR6J), over more than 200 catchments across the UK. The best performing model parameterisations, determined using a multi-objective function approach, have then been taken forward for use in the assessment of the impact of model parameters and model structure on drought event

Fermi Observations of the LIGO Event GW170104

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Goldstein, A.; Cleveland, W. H.; Connaughton, V. [Science and Technology Institute, Universities Space Research Association, Huntsville, AL 35805 (United States); Veres, P.; Briggs, M. S.; Hamburg, R.; Jenke, P. A.; Bhat, N. [Center for Space Plasma and Aeronomic Research, University of Alabama in Huntsville, 320 Sparkman Drive, Huntsville, AL 35899 (United States); Burns, E.; Canton, T. Dal [NASA Postdoctoral Program Fellow, Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD 20771 (United States); Blackburn, L. [Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, 60 Garden Street, Cambridge, MA 02138 (United States); Christensen, N. [Physics and Astronomy, Carleton College, MN, 55057 (United States); Hui, C. M.; Kocevski, D.; Wilson-Hodge, C. A. [Astrophysics Office, ST12, NASA/Marshall Space Flight Center, Huntsville, AL 35812 (United States); Preece, R. D. [Department of Space Science, University of Alabama in Huntsville, 320 Sparkman Drive, Huntsville, AL 35899 (United States); Siellez, K. [Center for Relativistic Astrophysics and School of Physics, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA 30332 (United States); Veitch, J. [University of Birmingham, Birmingham B15 2TT (United Kingdom); Bissaldi, E. [Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare, Sezione di Bari, I-70126 Bari (Italy); Gibby, M. H., E-mail: kocevski@slac.stanford.edu, E-mail: melissa.pesce.rollins@pi.infn.it, E-mail: nicola.omodei@stanford.edu, E-mail: giacomov@slac.stanford.edu [Jacobs Technology, Inc., Huntsville, AL (United States); Collaboration: (Fermi-LAT Collaboration); and others

2017-09-01

We present the Fermi Gamma-ray Burst Monitor (GBM) and Large Area Telescope (LAT) observations of the LIGO binary black hole merger (BBH) event GW170104. No candidate electromagnetic counterpart was detected by either GBM or LAT. A detailed analysis of the GBM and LAT data over timescales from seconds to days covering the Laser Interferometer Gravitational-wave Observatory (LIGO) localization region is presented. The resulting flux upper bound from the GBM is (5.2–9.4) × 10{sup −7} erg cm{sup −2} s{sup −1} in the 10–1000 keV range and from the LAT is (0.2–90) × 10{sup −9} erg cm{sup −2} s{sup −1} in the 0.1–1 GeV range. We also describe the improvements to our automated pipelines and analysis techniques for searching for and characterizing the potential electromagnetic counterparts for future gravitational-wave events from Advanced LIGO/Virgo.

Stochastic modeling of central apnea events in preterm infants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Clark, Matthew T; Lake, Douglas E; Randall Moorman, J; Delos, John B; Lee, Hoshik; Fairchild, Karen D; Kattwinkel, John

2016-01-01

A near-ubiquitous pathology in very low birth weight infants is neonatal apnea, breathing pauses with slowing of the heart and falling blood oxygen. Events of substantial duration occasionally occur after an infant is discharged from the neonatal intensive care unit (NICU). It is not known whether apneas result from a predictable process or from a stochastic process, but the observation that they occur in seemingly random clusters justifies the use of stochastic models. We use a hidden-Markov model to analyze the distribution of durations of apneas and the distribution of times between apneas. The model suggests the presence of four breathing states, ranging from very stable (with an average lifetime of 12 h) to very unstable (with an average lifetime of 10 s). Although the states themselves are not visible, the mathematical analysis gives estimates of the transition rates among these states. We have obtained these transition rates, and shown how they change with post-menstrual age; as expected, the residence time in the more stable breathing states increases with age. We also extrapolated the model to predict the frequency of very prolonged apnea during the first year of life. This paradigm—stochastic modeling of cardiorespiratory control in neonatal infants to estimate risk for severe clinical events—may be a first step toward personalized risk assessment for life threatening apnea events after NICU discharge. (paper)

International Observe the Moon Night: A Worldwide Public Observing Event that Annually Engages Scientists, Educators, and Citizen Enthusiasts in NASA Science

Science.gov (United States)

Buxner, S.; Jones, A. P.; Bleacher, L.; Wasser, M. L.; Day, B. H.; Shaner, A. J.; Bakerman, M. N.; Joseph, E.

2017-12-01

International Observe the Moon Night (InOMN) is an annual worldwide event, held in the fall, that celebrates lunar and planetary science and exploration. InOMN is sponsored by NASA's Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) in collaboration with NASA's Solar System Exploration Research Virtual Institute (SSERVI), the NASA's Heliophysics Education Consortium, CosmoQuest, Night Sky Network, and Science Festival Alliance. Other key partners include the NASA Museum Alliance, Night Sky Network, and NASA Solar System Ambassadors. In 2017, InOMN will bring together thousands of people across the globe to observe and learn about the Moon and its connection to planetary science. We are partnering with the NASA Science Mission Directorate total solar eclipse team to highlight InOMN as an opportunity to harness and sustain the interest and momentum in space science and observation following the August 21st eclipse. This is part of a new partnership with the Sun-Earth Day team, through the Heliophysics Education Consortium, to better connect the two largest NASA-sponsored public engagement events, increase participation in both events, and share best practices in implementation and evaluation between the teams. Over 3,800 InOMN events have been registered between 2010 and 2016, engaging over 550,000 visitors worldwide. Most InOMN events are held in the United States, with strong representation from many other countries. InOMN events are evaluated to determine the value of the events and to allow us to improve the experience for event hosts and visitors. Our results show that InOMN events are hosted by scientists, educators, and citizen enthusiasts around the world who leverage InOMN to bring communities together, get visitors excited and learn about the Moon - and beyond, and share resources to extend engagement in lunar and planetary science and observation. Through InOMN, we annually provide resources such as event-specific Moon maps, presentations, advertising materials, and

Observation and Interpretation of Energetic Neutral Hydrogen Atoms from the December 5, 2006 Solar Event

Science.gov (United States)

Mewaldt, R. A.; Leske, R. A.; Stone, E. C.; Barghouty, A. F.; Shih, A. Y.; von Rosenvinge, T. T.; Labrador, A. W.; Cohen, C. M. S.; Cummings, A. C.; Cummings, A. C.

2009-01-01

We report the first observations of energetic neutral atoms (ENAs) from a solar flare/coronal mass ejection event. The observations were made during the December 5, 2006 X9 solar flare, located at E79, by the Low Energy Telescopes (LETs) on the STEREO A and B spacecraft. Within 1-2 hours of the flare onset, both LETs observed a sudden burst of 1.6 to 15 MeV protons arriving hours before the onset of the main solar energetic particle (SEP) event at Earth. More than 70% of these particles arrived from a longitude within +-10 degrees of the Sun. The derived emission profile at the Sun lasted for more than an hour and had a profile remarkably similar to the GOES soft X-ray profile. The observed arrival directions and energy spectrum argue strongly that the particle events atoms that were stripped of their electrons upon entering the LET sensor. To our knowledge, this is the first reported observation of ENA emission from a solar flare/coronal mass ejection. We discuss possible origins for the production of ENAs in solar events, including charge-transfer reactions involving both flare and shock-accelerated protons. Assuming isotropic emission, we find that 2 x 10E28 ENAs escaped from the Sun in the upper hemisphere. Based on the 2.2 MeV gamma-ray emission observed by RHESSI in this event, and using measured and theoretical cross sections, we estimate that 3 x 10E31 ENAs with 1.8 - 5 MeV could be produced by protons accelerated in the flare. CME-driven shock acceleration is also a possible ENA source, but unfortunately there were no CME observations available from this event. Taking into account ENA losses, we conclude that the observed ENAs were most likely produced in the high corona at heliocentric distances 1.6 solar radii.

Dynamic sensing model for accurate delectability of environmental phenomena using event wireless sensor network

Science.gov (United States)

Missif, Lial Raja; Kadhum, Mohammad M.

2017-09-01

Wireless Sensor Network (WSN) has been widely used for monitoring where sensors are deployed to operate independently to sense abnormal phenomena. Most of the proposed environmental monitoring systems are designed based on a predetermined sensing range which does not reflect the sensor reliability, event characteristics, and the environment conditions. Measuring of the capability of a sensor node to accurately detect an event within a sensing field is of great important for monitoring applications. This paper presents an efficient mechanism for even detection based on probabilistic sensing model. Different models have been presented theoretically in this paper to examine their adaptability and applicability to the real environment applications. The numerical results of the experimental evaluation have showed that the probabilistic sensing model provides accurate observation and delectability of an event, and it can be utilized for different environment scenarios.

Observations and Interpretations of Energetic Neutral Hydrogen Atoms from the December 5, 2006 Solar Event

Science.gov (United States)

Mewaldt, R. A.; Leske, R. A.; Shih, A. Y.; Stone, E. C.; Barghouty, A. f.; Cohen, C. M. S.; Cummings, A. c.; Labrador, A. W.; vonRosenvinge, T. T.

2009-01-01

We discuss recently reported observations of energetic neutral hydrogen atoms (ENAs) from an X9 solar flare/coronal mass ejection event on 5 December 2006, located at E79. The observations were made by the Low Energy Telescopes (LETs) on STEREO A and B. Prior to the arrival of the main solar energetic particle (SEP) event at Earth, both LETs observed a sudden burst of 1.6 to 15 MeV energetic neutral hydrogen atoms produced by either flare or shock-accelerated protons. RHESSI measurements of the 2.2-MeV gamma-ray line provide an estimate of the number of interacting flare-accelerated protons in this event, which leads to an improved estimate of ENA production by flare-accelerated protons. Taking into account ENA losses, we find that the observed ENAs must have been produced in the high corona at heliocentric distances > or equal to 2 solar radii. Although there are no CME images from this event, it is shown that CME-shock-accelerated protons can, in principle, produce a time-history consistent with the observations.

Exploring the influence of citizen involvement on the assimilation of crowdsourced observations: a modelling study based on the 2013 flood event in the Bacchiglione catchment (Italy)

Science.gov (United States)

Mazzoleni, Maurizio; Cortes Arevalo, Vivian Juliette; Wehn, Uta; Alfonso, Leonardo; Norbiato, Daniele; Monego, Martina; Ferri, Michele; Solomatine, Dimitri P.

2018-01-01

To improve hydrological predictions, real-time measurements derived from traditional physical sensors are integrated within mathematic models. Recently, traditional sensors are being complemented with crowdsourced data (social sensors). Although measurements from social sensors can be low cost and more spatially distributed, other factors like spatial variability of citizen involvement, decreasing involvement over time, variable observations accuracy and feasibility for model assimilation play an important role in accurate flood predictions. Only a few studies have investigated the benefit of assimilating uncertain crowdsourced data in hydrological and hydraulic models. In this study, we investigate the usefulness of assimilating crowdsourced observations from a heterogeneous network of static physical, static social and dynamic social sensors. We assess improvements in the model prediction performance for different spatial-temporal scenarios of citizen involvement levels. To that end, we simulate an extreme flood event that occurred in the Bacchiglione catchment (Italy) in May 2013 using a semi-distributed hydrological model with the station at Ponte degli Angeli (Vicenza) as the prediction-validation point. A conceptual hydrological model is implemented by the Alto Adriatico Water Authority and it is used to estimate runoff from the different sub-catchments, while a hydraulic model is implemented to propagate the flow along the river reach. In both models, a Kalman filter is implemented to assimilate the crowdsourced observations. Synthetic crowdsourced observations are generated for either static social or dynamic social sensors because these measures were not available at the time of the study. We consider two sets of experiments: (i) assuming random probability of receiving crowdsourced observations and (ii) using theoretical scenarios of citizen motivations, and consequent involvement levels, based on population distribution. The results demonstrate the

Modelling substorm chorus events in terms of dispersive azimuthal drift

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. B. Collier

2004-12-01

Full Text Available The Substorm Chorus Event (SCE is a radio phenomenon observed on the ground after the onset of the substorm expansion phase. It consists of a band of VLF chorus with rising upper and lower cutoff frequencies. These emissions are thought to result from Doppler-shifted cyclotron resonance between whistler mode waves and energetic electrons which drift into a ground station's field of view from an injection site around midnight. The increasing frequency of the emission envelope has been attributed to the combined effects of energy dispersion due to gradient and curvature drifts, and the modification of resonance conditions and variation of the half-gyrofrequency cutoff resulting from the radial component of the ExB drift. A model is presented which accounts for the observed features of the SCE in terms of the growth rate of whistler mode waves due to anisotropy in the electron distribution. This model provides an explanation for the increasing frequency of the SCE lower cutoff, as well as reproducing the general frequency-time signature of the event. In addition, the results place some restrictions on the injected particle source distribution which might lead to a SCE. Key words. Space plasma physics (Wave-particle interaction – Magnetospheric physics (Plasma waves and instabilities; Storms and substorms

A limited area model intercomparison on the 'Montserrat-2000' flash-flood event using statistical and deterministic methods

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. Mariani

2005-01-01

Full Text Available In the scope of the European project Hydroptimet, INTERREG IIIB-MEDOCC programme, limited area model (LAM intercomparison of intense events that produced many damages to people and territory is performed. As the comparison is limited to single case studies, the work is not meant to provide a measure of the different models' skill, but to identify the key model factors useful to give a good forecast on such a kind of meteorological phenomena. This work focuses on the Spanish flash-flood event, also known as 'Montserrat-2000' event. The study is performed using forecast data from seven operational LAMs, placed at partners' disposal via the Hydroptimet ftp site, and observed data from Catalonia rain gauge network. To improve the event analysis, satellite rainfall estimates have been also considered. For statistical evaluation of quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs, several non-parametric skill scores based on contingency tables have been used. Furthermore, for each model run it has been possible to identify Catalonia regions affected by misses and false alarms using contingency table elements. Moreover, the standard 'eyeball' analysis of forecast and observed precipitation fields has been supported by the use of a state-of-the-art diagnostic method, the contiguous rain area (CRA analysis. This method allows to quantify the spatial shift forecast error and to identify the error sources that affected each model forecasts. High-resolution modelling and domain size seem to have a key role for providing a skillful forecast. Further work is needed to support this statement, including verification using a wider observational data set.

Station Set Residual: Event Classification Using Historical Distribution of Observing Stations

Science.gov (United States)

Procopio, Mike; Lewis, Jennifer; Young, Chris

2010-05-01

Analysts working at the International Data Centre in support of treaty monitoring through the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization spend a significant amount of time reviewing hypothesized seismic events produced by an automatic processing system. When reviewing these events to determine their legitimacy, analysts take a variety of approaches that rely heavily on training and past experience. One method used by analysts to gauge the validity of an event involves examining the set of stations involved in the detection of an event. In particular, leveraging past experience, an analyst can say that an event located in a certain part of the world is expected to be detected by Stations A, B, and C. Implicit in this statement is that such an event would usually not be detected by Stations X, Y, or Z. For some well understood parts of the world, the absence of one or more "expected" stations—or the presence of one or more "unexpected" stations—is correlated with a hypothesized event's legitimacy and to its survival to the event bulletin. The primary objective of this research is to formalize and quantify the difference between the observed set of stations detecting some hypothesized event, versus the expected set of stations historically associated with detecting similar nearby events close in magnitude. This Station Set Residual can be quantified in many ways, some of which are correlated with the analysts' determination of whether or not the event is valid. We propose that this Station Set Residual score can be used to screen out certain classes of "false" events produced by automatic processing with a high degree of confidence, reducing the analyst burden. Moreover, we propose that the visualization of the historically expected distribution of detecting stations can be immediately useful as an analyst aid during their review process.

Event-based Simulation Model for Quantum Optics Experiments

NARCIS (Netherlands)

De Raedt, H.; Michielsen, K.; Jaeger, G; Khrennikov, A; Schlosshauer, M; Weihs, G

2011-01-01

We present a corpuscular simulation model of optical phenomena that does not require the knowledge of the solution of a wave equation of the whole system and reproduces the results of Maxwell's theory by generating detection events one-by-one. The event-based corpuscular model gives a unified

Regression analysis of mixed recurrent-event and panel-count data with additive rate models.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhu, Liang; Zhao, Hui; Sun, Jianguo; Leisenring, Wendy; Robison, Leslie L

2015-03-01

Event-history studies of recurrent events are often conducted in fields such as demography, epidemiology, medicine, and social sciences (Cook and Lawless, 2007, The Statistical Analysis of Recurrent Events. New York: Springer-Verlag; Zhao et al., 2011, Test 20, 1-42). For such analysis, two types of data have been extensively investigated: recurrent-event data and panel-count data. However, in practice, one may face a third type of data, mixed recurrent-event and panel-count data or mixed event-history data. Such data occur if some study subjects are monitored or observed continuously and thus provide recurrent-event data, while the others are observed only at discrete times and hence give only panel-count data. A more general situation is that each subject is observed continuously over certain time periods but only at discrete times over other time periods. There exists little literature on the analysis of such mixed data except that published by Zhu et al. (2013, Statistics in Medicine 32, 1954-1963). In this article, we consider the regression analysis of mixed data using the additive rate model and develop some estimating equation-based approaches to estimate the regression parameters of interest. Both finite sample and asymptotic properties of the resulting estimators are established, and the numerical studies suggest that the proposed methodology works well for practical situations. The approach is applied to a Childhood Cancer Survivor Study that motivated this study. © 2014, The International Biometric Society.

Observing and modeling the spectrum of a slow slip event: Constraints on the scaling of slow slip and tremor

Science.gov (United States)

Hawthorne, J. C.; Bartlow, N. M.; Ghosh, A.

2017-12-01

We estimate the normalized moment rate spectrum of a slow slip event in Cascadia and then attempt to reproduce it. Our goal is to further assess whether a single physical mechanism could govern slow slip and tremor events, with durations that span 6 orders of magnitude, so we construct the spectrum by parameterizing a large slow slip event as the sum of a number of subevents with various durations. The spectrum estimate uses data from three sources: the GPS-based slip inversion of Bartlow et al (2011), PBO borehole strain measurements, and beamforming-based tremor moment estimates of Ghosh et al (2009). We find that at periods shorter than 1 day, the moment rate power spectrum decays as frequencyn, where n is between 0.7 and 1.4 when measured from strain and between 1.2 and 1.4 when inferred from tremor. The spectrum appears roughly flat at periods of 1 to 10 days, as both the 1-day-period strain and tremor data and the 6-day-period slip inversion data imply a moment rate power of 0.02 times the the total moment squared. We demonstrate one way to reproduce this spectrum: by constructing the large-scale slow slip event as the sum of a series of subevents. The shortest of these subevents could be interpreted as VLFEs or even LFEs, while longer subevents might represent the aseismic slip that drives rapid tremor reverals, streaks, or rapid tremor migrations. We pick the subevent magnitudes from a Gutenberg-Richter distribution and place the events randomly throughout a 30-day interval. Then we assign each subevent a duration that scales with its moment to a specified power. Finally, we create a moment rate function for each subevent and sum all of the moment rates. We compute the summed slow slip moment rate spectra with two approaches: a time-domain numerical computation and a frequency-domain analytical summation. Several sets of subevent parameters can allow the constructed slow slip event to match the observed spectrum. One allowable set of parameters is of

Gaseous elemental mercury depletion events observed at Cape Point during 2007–2008

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

E.-G. Brunke

2010-02-01

Full Text Available Gaseous mercury in the marine boundary layer has been measured with a 15 min temporal resolution at the Global Atmosphere Watch station Cape Point since March 2007. The most prominent features of the data until July 2008 are the frequent occurrences of pollution (PEs and depletion events (DEs. Both types of events originate mostly within a short transport distance (up to about 100 km, which are embedded in air masses ranging from marine background to continental. The Hg/CO emission ratios observed during the PEs are within the range reported for biomass burning and industrial/urban emissions. The depletion of gaseous mercury during the DEs is in many cases almost complete and suggests an atmospheric residence time of elemental mercury as short as a few dozens of hours, which is in contrast to the commonly used estimate of approximately 1 year. The DEs observed at Cape Point are not accompanied by simultaneous depletion of ozone which distinguishes them from the halogen driven atmospheric mercury depletion events (AMDEs observed in Polar Regions. Nonetheless, DEs similar to those observed at Cape Point have also been observed at other places in the marine boundary layer. Additional measurements of mercury speciation and of possible mercury oxidants are hence called for to reveal the chemical mechanism of the newly observed DEs and to assess its importance on larger scales.

Hidden Markov event sequence models: toward unsupervised functional MRI brain mapping.

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Faisan, Sylvain; Thoraval, Laurent; Armspach, Jean-Paul; Foucher, Jack R; Metz-Lutz, Marie-Noëlle; Heitz, Fabrice

2005-01-01

Most methods used in functional MRI (fMRI) brain mapping require restrictive assumptions about the shape and timing of the fMRI signal in activated voxels. Consequently, fMRI data may be partially and misleadingly characterized, leading to suboptimal or invalid inference. To limit these assumptions and to capture the broad range of possible activation patterns, a novel statistical fMRI brain mapping method is proposed. It relies on hidden semi-Markov event sequence models (HSMESMs), a special class of hidden Markov models (HMMs) dedicated to the modeling and analysis of event-based random processes. Activation detection is formulated in terms of time coupling between (1) the observed sequence of hemodynamic response onset (HRO) events detected in the voxel's fMRI signal and (2) the "hidden" sequence of task-induced neural activation onset (NAO) events underlying the HROs. Both event sequences are modeled within a single HSMESM. The resulting brain activation model is trained to automatically detect neural activity embedded in the input fMRI data set under analysis. The data sets considered in this article are threefold: synthetic epoch-related, real epoch-related (auditory lexical processing task), and real event-related (oddball detection task) fMRI data sets. Synthetic data: Activation detection results demonstrate the superiority of the HSMESM mapping method with respect to a standard implementation of the statistical parametric mapping (SPM) approach. They are also very close, sometimes equivalent, to those obtained with an "ideal" implementation of SPM in which the activation patterns synthesized are reused for analysis. The HSMESM method appears clearly insensitive to timing variations of the hemodynamic response and exhibits low sensitivity to fluctuations of its shape (unsustained activation during task). Real epoch-related data: HSMESM activation detection results compete with those obtained with SPM, without requiring any prior definition of the expected

Event-Based Corpuscular Model for Quantum Optics Experiments

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Michielsen, K.; Jin, F.; Raedt, H. De

A corpuscular simulation model of optical phenomena that does not require the knowledge of the solution of a wave equation of the whole system and reproduces the results of Maxwell's theory by generating detection events one-by-one is presented. The event-based corpuscular model is shown to give a

Observable Emission Features of Black Hole GRMHD Jets on Event Horizon Scales

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pu, Hung-Yi [Perimeter Institute for Theoretical Physics, 31 Caroline Street North, Waterloo, ON, N2L 2Y5 (Canada); Wu, Kinwah [Mullard Space Science Laboratory, University College London, Holmbury St. Mary, Dorking, Surrey, RH5 6NT (United Kingdom); Younsi, Ziri; Mizuno, Yosuke [Institut für Theoretische Physik, Max-von-Laue-Straße 1, D-60438 Frankfurt am Main (Germany); Asada, Keiichi; Nakamura, Masanori, E-mail: hpu@perimeterinstitute.ca, E-mail: asada@asiaa.sinica.edu.tw, E-mail: nakamura@asiaa.sinica.edu.tw, E-mail: kinwah.wu@ucl.ac.uk, E-mail: younsi@th.physik.uni-frankfurt.de, E-mail: mizuno@th.physik.uni-frankfurt.de [Institute of Astronomy and Astrophysics, Academia Sinica, 11F of Astronomy-Mathematics Building, AS/NTU No. 1, Taipei 10617, Taiwan (China)

2017-08-20

The general-relativistic magnetohydrodynamical (GRMHD) formulation for black hole-powered jets naturally gives rise to a stagnation surface, where inflows and outflows along magnetic field lines that thread the black hole event horizon originate. We derive a conservative formulation for the transport of energetic electrons, which are initially injected at the stagnation surface and subsequently transported along flow streamlines. With this formulation the energy spectra evolution of the electrons along the flow in the presence of radiative and adiabatic cooling is determined. For flows regulated by synchrotron radiative losses and adiabatic cooling, the effective radio emission region is found to be finite, and geometrically it is more extended along the jet central axis. Moreover, the emission from regions adjacent to the stagnation surface is expected to be the most luminous as this is where the freshly injected energetic electrons are concentrated. An observable stagnation surface is thus a strong prediction of the GRMHD jet model with the prescribed non-thermal electron injection. Future millimeter/submillimeter (mm/sub-mm) very-long-baseline interferometric observations of supermassive black hole candidates, such as the one at the center of M87, can verify this GRMHD jet model and its associated non-thermal electron injection mechanism.

Prediction skill of rainstorm events over India in the TIGGE weather prediction models

Science.gov (United States)

Karuna Sagar, S.; Rajeevan, M.; Vijaya Bhaskara Rao, S.; Mitra, A. K.

2017-12-01

Extreme rainfall events pose a serious threat of leading to severe floods in many countries worldwide. Therefore, advance prediction of its occurrence and spatial distribution is very essential. In this paper, an analysis has been made to assess the skill of numerical weather prediction models in predicting rainstorms over India. Using gridded daily rainfall data set and objective criteria, 15 rainstorms were identified during the monsoon season (June to September). The analysis was made using three TIGGE (THe Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) Interactive Grand Global Ensemble) models. The models considered are the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and the UK Met Office (UKMO). Verification of the TIGGE models for 43 observed rainstorm days from 15 rainstorm events has been made for the period 2007-2015. The comparison reveals that rainstorm events are predictable up to 5 days in advance, however with a bias in spatial distribution and intensity. The statistical parameters like mean error (ME) or Bias, root mean square error (RMSE) and correlation coefficient (CC) have been computed over the rainstorm region using the multi-model ensemble (MME) mean. The study reveals that the spread is large in ECMWF and UKMO followed by the NCEP model. Though the ensemble spread is quite small in NCEP, the ensemble member averages are not well predicted. The rank histograms suggest that the forecasts are under prediction. The modified Contiguous Rain Area (CRA) technique was used to verify the spatial as well as the quantitative skill of the TIGGE models. Overall, the contribution from the displacement and pattern errors to the total RMSE is found to be more in magnitude. The volume error increases from 24 hr forecast to 48 hr forecast in all the three models.

Modeling energy market dynamics using discrete event system simulation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gutierrez-Alcaraz, G.; Sheble, G.B.

2009-01-01

This paper proposes the use of Discrete Event System Simulation to study the interactions among fuel and electricity markets and consumers, and the decision-making processes of fuel companies (FUELCOs), generation companies (GENCOs), and consumers in a simple artificial energy market. In reality, since markets can reach a stable equilibrium or fail, it is important to observe how they behave in a dynamic framework. We consider a Nash-Cournot model in which marketers are depicted as Nash-Cournot players that determine supply to meet end-use consumption. Detailed engineering considerations such as transportation network flows are omitted, because the focus is upon the selection and use of appropriate market models to provide answers to policy questions. (author)

Hygrothermal modelling of flooding events within historic buildings

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Huijbregts, Z.; Schellen, H.L.; Schijndel, van A.W.M.; Blades, N.

2014-01-01

Flooding events pose a high risk to valuable monumental buildings and their interiors. Due to higher river discharges and sea level rise, flooding events may occur more often in future. Hygrothermal building simulation models can be applied to investigate the impact of a flooding event on the

Hygrothermal modelling of flooding events within historic buildings

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Huijbregts, Z.; Schijndel, van A.W.M.; Schellen, H.L.; Blades, N.; Mahdavi, A.; Mertens, B.

2013-01-01

Flooding events pose a high risk to valuable monumental buildings and their interiors. Due to higher river discharges and sea level rise, flooding events may occur more often in future. Hygrothermal building simulation models can be applied to investigate the impact of a flooding event on the

How does observation uncertainty influence which stream water samples are most informative for model calibration?

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Ling; van Meerveld, Ilja; Seibert, Jan

2016-04-01

Streamflow isotope samples taken during rainfall-runoff events are very useful for multi-criteria model calibration because they can help decrease parameter uncertainty and improve internal model consistency. However, the number of samples that can be collected and analysed is often restricted by practical and financial constraints. It is, therefore, important to choose an appropriate sampling strategy and to obtain samples that have the highest information content for model calibration. We used the Birkenes hydrochemical model and synthetic rainfall, streamflow and isotope data to explore which samples are most informative for model calibration. Starting with error-free observations, we investigated how many samples are needed to obtain a certain model fit. Based on different parameter sets, representing different catchments, and different rainfall events, we also determined which sampling times provide the most informative data for model calibration. Our results show that simulation performance for models calibrated with the isotopic data from two intelligently selected samples was comparable to simulations based on isotopic data for all 100 time steps. The models calibrated with the intelligently selected samples also performed better than the model calibrations with two benchmark sampling strategies (random selection and selection based on hydrologic information). Surprisingly, samples on the rising limb and at the peak were less informative than expected and, generally, samples taken at the end of the event were most informative. The timing of the most informative samples depends on the proportion of different flow components (baseflow, slow response flow, fast response flow and overflow). For events dominated by baseflow and slow response flow, samples taken at the end of the event after the fast response flow has ended were most informative; when the fast response flow was dominant, samples taken near the peak were most informative. However when overflow

A case for multi-model and multi-approach based event attribution: The 2015 European drought

Science.gov (United States)

Hauser, Mathias; Gudmundsson, Lukas; Orth, René; Jézéquel, Aglaé; Haustein, Karsten; Seneviratne, Sonia Isabelle

2017-04-01

Science on the role of anthropogenic influence on extreme weather events such as heat waves or droughts has evolved rapidly over the past years. The approach of "event attribution" compares the occurrence probability of an event in the present, factual world with the probability of the same event in a hypothetical, counterfactual world without human-induced climate change. Every such analysis necessarily faces multiple methodological choices including, but not limited to: the event definition, climate model configuration, and the design of the counterfactual world. Here, we explore the role of such choices for an attribution analysis of the 2015 European summer drought (Hauser et al., in preparation). While some GCMs suggest that anthropogenic forcing made the 2015 drought more likely, others suggest no impact, or even a decrease in the event probability. These results additionally differ for single GCMs, depending on the reference used for the counterfactual world. Observational results do not suggest a historical tendency towards more drying, but the record may be too short to provide robust assessments because of the large interannual variability of drought occurrence. These results highlight the need for a multi-model and multi-approach framework in event attribution research. This is especially important for events with low signal to noise ratio and high model dependency such as regional droughts. Hauser, M., L. Gudmundsson, R. Orth, A. Jézéquel, K. Haustein, S.I. Seneviratne, in preparation. A case for multi-model and multi-approach based event attribution: The 2015 European drought.

Observations of the Evolution of Ion Outflow During a Sawtooth Event

Science.gov (United States)

Lund, E. J.; Nowrouzi, N.; Kistler, L. M.; Cai, X.; Frey, H. U.

2015-12-01

Sawtooth oscillations are one of several convection modes known to exist in the magnetosphere. Recent simulations have suggested that O+^+ ions transported from the high-latitude ionosphere to the magnetotail can drive sawtooth events. We present observational case studies of sawtooth events using data from FAST near the noon-midnight meridional plane, Cluster in the magnetotail, GOES and LANL energetic particle sensors at geosynchronous orbit, and ACE solar wind data to investigate the evolution of ion outflow during sawtooth events and the question of whether O+^+ outflow from one tooth helps to drive subsequent teeth. We find that oxygen enters the tail from the lobes after each tooth onset, the oxygen fraction in the magnetotail often increases after a tooth onset, and that the oxygen fraction of outflowing ions increases after a tooth event both in the cusp and on the nightside. However, a significant amount of low energy oxygen (≲1 keV) can end up in the dayside inner magnetosphere.

STEREO/SEPT observations of upstream particle events: almost monoenergetic ion beams

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Klassen

2009-05-01

Full Text Available We present observations of Almost Monoenergetic Ion (AMI events in the energy range of 100–1200 keV detected with the Solar Electron and Proton Telescope (SEPT onboard both STEREO spacecraft. The energy spectrum of AMI events contain 1, 2, or 3 narrow peaks with the relative width at half maximum of 0.1–0.7 and their energy maxima varies for different events from 120 to 1200 keV. These events were detected close to the bow-shock (STEREO-A&B and to the magnetopause at STEREO-B as well as unexpectedly far upstream of the bow-shock and far away from the magnetotail at distances up to 1100 R_E (STEREO-B and 1900 R_E (STEREO-A. We discuss the origin of AMI events, the connection to the Earth's bow-shock and to the magnetosphere, and the conditions of the interplanetary medium and magnetosphere under which these AMI bursts occur. Evidence that the detected spectral peaks were caused by quasi-monoenergetic beams of protons, helium, and heavier ions are given. Furthermore, we present the spatial distribution of all AMI events from December 2006 until August 2007.

Probability model for worst case solar proton event fluences

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Xapsos, M.A.; Summers, G.P.; Barth, J.L.; Stassinopoulos, E.G.; Burke, E.A.

1999-01-01

The effects that solar proton events have on microelectronics and solar arrays are important considerations for spacecraft in geostationary orbits, polar orbits and on interplanetary missions. A predictive model of worst case solar proton event fluences is presented. It allows the expected worst case event fluence to be calculated for a given confidence level and for periods of time corresponding to space missions. The proton energy range is from >1 to >300 MeV, so that the model is useful for a variety of radiation effects applications. For each proton energy threshold, the maximum entropy principle is used to select the initial distribution of solar proton event fluences. This turns out to be a truncated power law, i.e., a power law for smaller event fluences that smoothly approaches zero at a maximum fluence. The strong agreement of the distribution with satellite data for the last three solar cycles indicates this description captures the essential features of a solar proton event fluence distribution. Extreme value theory is then applied to the initial distribution of events to obtain the model of worst case fluences

TRANSITION REGION AND CHROMOSPHERIC SIGNATURES OF IMPULSIVE HEATING EVENTS. I. OBSERVATIONS

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Warren, Harry P. [Space Science Division, Naval Research Laboratory, Washington, DC 20375 (United States); Reep, Jeffrey W. [National Research Council Postdoctoral Fellow, Space Science Division, Naval Research Laboratory, Washington, DC 20375 (United States); Crump, Nicholas A. [Naval Center for Space Technology, Naval Research Laboratory, Washington, DC 20375 (United States); Simões, Paulo J. A. [SUPA School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Glasgow, Glasgow G12 8QQ (United Kingdom)

2016-09-20

We exploit the high spatial resolution and high cadence of the Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph ( IRIS ) to investigate the response of the transition region and chromosphere to energy deposition during a small flare. Simultaneous observations from the Reuven Ramaty High Energy Solar Spectroscopic Imager provide constraints on the energetic electrons precipitating into the flare footpoints, while observations of the X-Ray Telescope , Atmospheric Imaging Assembly, and Extreme Ultraviolet Imaging Spectrometer (EIS) allow us to measure the temperatures and emission measures from the resulting flare loops. We find clear evidence for heating over an extended period on the spatial scale of a single IRIS pixel. During the impulsive phase of this event, the intensities in each pixel for the Si iv 1402.770 Å, C ii 1334.535 Å, Mg ii 2796.354 Å, and O i 1355.598 Å emission lines are characterized by numerous small-scale bursts typically lasting 60 s or less. Redshifts are observed in Si iv, C ii, and Mg ii during the impulsive phase. Mg ii shows redshifts during the bursts and stationary emission at other times. The Si iv and C ii profiles, in contrast, are observed to be redshifted at all times during the impulsive phase. These persistent redshifts are a challenge for one-dimensional hydrodynamic models, which predict only short-duration downflows in response to impulsive heating. We conjecture that energy is being released on many small-scale filaments with a power-law distribution of heating rates.

Analysis of mutual events of Galilean satellites observed from VBO during 2014-2015

Science.gov (United States)

Vasundhara, R.; Selvakumar, G.; Anbazhagan, P.

2017-06-01

Results of analysis of 23 events of the 2014-2015 mutual event series from the Vainu Bappu Observatory are presented. Our intensity distribution model for the eclipsed/occulted satellite is based on the criterion that it simulates a rotational light curve that matches the ground-based light curve. Dichotomy in the scattering characteristics of the leading and trailing sides explains the basic shape of the rotational light curves of Europa, Ganymede and Callisto. In the case of Io, the albedo map (courtesy United States Geological Survey) along with global values of scattering parameters works well. Mean values of residuals in (O - C) along and perpendicular to the track are found to be -3.3 and -3.4 mas, respectively, compared to 'L2' theory for the seven 2E1/2O1 events. The corresponding rms values are 8.7 and 7.8 mas, respectively. For the five 1E3/1O3 events, the along and perpendicular to the track mean residuals are 5.6 and 3.2 mas, respectively. The corresponding rms residuals are 6.8 and 10.5 mas, respectively. We compare the results using the chosen model (Model 1) with a uniform but limb-darkened disc (Model 2). The residuals with Model 2 of the 2E1/2O1 and 1E3/1O3 events indicate a bias along the satellite track. The extent and direction of bias are consistent with the shift of the light centre from the geometric centre. Results using Model 1, which intrinsically takes into account the intensity distribution, show no such bias.

Modeled seasonality of glacial abrupt climate events

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Flueckiger, J.; Knutti, R.; White, J.W.C.; Renssen, H.

2008-01-01

Greenland ice cores, as well as many other paleo-archives from the northern hemisphere, recorded a series of 25 warm interstadial events, the so-called Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) events, during the last glacial period. We use the three-dimensional coupled global ocean-atmosphere-sea ice model

LEP Events, TLE's, and Q-bursts observed from the Antarctic

Science.gov (United States)

Moore, R. C.; Kim, D.; Flint, Q. A.

2017-12-01

ELF/VLF measurements at Palmer Station, McMurdo Station, and South Pole Station, Antarctica are used to detect lightning-generated ELF/VLF radio atmospherics from around the globe and to remote sense ionospheric disturbances in the Southern hemisphere. The Antarctic ELF/VLF receivers complement a Northern hemisphere ELF/VLF monitoring array. In this paper, we present our latest observational results, including a full statistical analysis of conjugate observations of lightning-induced electron precipitation and radio atmospherics associated specifically with the transient luminous events known as gigantic jets and sprites.

Modelling extreme climatic events in Guadalquivir Estuary ( Spain)

Science.gov (United States)

Delgado, Juan; Moreno-Navas, Juan; Pulido, Antoine; García-Lafuente, Juan; Calero Quesada, Maria C.; García, Rodrigo

2017-04-01

Extreme climatic events, such as heat waves and severe storms are predicted to increase in frequency and magnitude as a consequence of global warming but their socio-ecological effects are poorly understood, particularly in estuarine ecosystems. The Guadalquivir Estuary has been anthropologically modified several times, the original salt marshes have been transformed to grow rice and cotton and approximately one-fourth of the total surface of the estuary is now part of two protected areas, one of them is a UNESCO, MAB Biosphere Reserve. The climatic events are most likely to affect Europe in forthcoming decades and a further understanding how these climatic disturbances drive abrupt changes in the Guadalquivir estuary is needed. A barotropic model has been developed to study how severe storm events affects the estuary by conducting paired control and climate-events simulations. The changes in the local wind and atmospheric pressure conditions in the estuary have been studied in detail and several scenarios are obtained by running the model under control and real storm conditions. The model output has been validated with in situ water elevation and good agreement between modelled and real measurements have been obtained. Our preliminary results show that the model demonstrated the capability describe of the tide-surge levels in the estuary, opening the possibility to study the interaction between climatic events and the port operations and food production activities. The barotropic hydrodynamic model provide spatially explicit information on the key variables governing the tide dynamics of estuarine areas under severe climatic scenarios . The numerical model will be a powerful tool in future climate change mitigation and adaptation programs in a complex socio-ecological system.

Modeling extreme "Carrington-type" space weather events using three-dimensional global MHD simulations

Science.gov (United States)

Ngwira, Chigomezyo M.; Pulkkinen, Antti; Kuznetsova, Maria M.; Glocer, Alex

2014-06-01

There is a growing concern over possible severe societal consequences related to adverse space weather impacts on man-made technological infrastructure. In the last two decades, significant progress has been made toward the first-principles modeling of space weather events, and three-dimensional (3-D) global magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) models have been at the forefront of this transition, thereby playing a critical role in advancing our understanding of space weather. However, the modeling of extreme space weather events is still a major challenge even for the modern global MHD models. In this study, we introduce a specially adapted University of Michigan 3-D global MHD model for simulating extreme space weather events with a Dst footprint comparable to the Carrington superstorm of September 1859 based on the estimate by Tsurutani et. al. (2003). Results are presented for a simulation run with "very extreme" constructed/idealized solar wind boundary conditions driving the magnetosphere. In particular, we describe the reaction of the magnetosphere-ionosphere system and the associated induced geoelectric field on the ground to such extreme driving conditions. The model setup is further tested using input data for an observed space weather event of Halloween storm October 2003 to verify the MHD model consistence and to draw additional guidance for future work. This extreme space weather MHD model setup is designed specifically for practical application to the modeling of extreme geomagnetically induced electric fields, which can drive large currents in ground-based conductor systems such as power transmission grids. Therefore, our ultimate goal is to explore the level of geoelectric fields that can be induced from an assumed storm of the reported magnitude, i.e., Dst˜=-1600 nT.

Observations and global numerical modelling of the St. Patrick's Day 2015 geomagnetic storm event

Science.gov (United States)

Foerster, M.; Prokhorov, B. E.; Doornbos, E.; Astafieva, E.; Zakharenkova, I.

2017-12-01

With a sudden storm commencement (SSC) at 04:45 UT on St. Patrick's day 2015 started the most severe geomagnetic storm in solar cycle 24. It appeared as a two-stage geomagnetic storm with a minimum SYM-H value of -233 nT. In the response to the storm commencement in the first activation, a short-term positive effect in the ionospheric vertical electron content (VTEC) occurred at low- and mid-latitudes on the dayside. The second phase commencing around 12:30 UT lasted longer and caused significant and complex storm-time changes around the globe with hemispherical different ionospheric storm reactions in different longitudinal ranges. Swarm-C observations of the neutral mass density variation along the orbital path as well as Langmuir probe plasma and magnetometer measurements of all three Swarm satellites and global TEC records are used for physical interpretations and modelling of the positive/negative storm scenario. These observations pose a challenge for the global numerical modelling of thermosphere-ionosphere storm processes as the storm, which occurred around spring equinox, obviously signify the existence of other impact factors than seasonal dependence for hemispheric asymmetries to occur. Numerical simulation trials using the Potsdam version of the Upper Atmosphere Model (UAM-P) are presented to explain these peculiar M-I-T storm processes.

Observation of hard scattering in photoproduction events with a large rapidity gap at HERA

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Derrick, M.; Krakauer, D.; Magill, S.

1994-11-01

Events with a large rapidity gap and total transverse energy greater than 5 GeV have been observed in quasi-real photoproduction at HERA with the ZEUS detector. The distribution of these events as a function of the γp centre of mass energy is consistent with diffractive scattering. For total transverse energies above 12 GeV, the hadronic final states show predominantly a two-jet structure with each jet having a transverse energy greater than 4 GeV. For the two-jet events, little energy flow is found outside the jets. This observation is consistent with the hard scattering of a quasi-real photon with a colourless object in the proton. (orig.)

Modeling a Single SEP Event from Multiple Vantage Points Using the iPATH Model

Science.gov (United States)

Hu, Junxiang; Li, Gang; Fu, Shuai; Zank, Gary; Ao, Xianzhi

2018-02-01

Using the recently extended 2D improved Particle Acceleration and Transport in the Heliosphere (iPATH) model, we model an example gradual solar energetic particle event as observed at multiple locations. Protons and ions that are energized via the diffusive shock acceleration mechanism are followed at a 2D coronal mass ejection-driven shock where the shock geometry varies across the shock front. The subsequent transport of energetic particles, including cross-field diffusion, is modeled by a Monte Carlo code that is based on a stochastic differential equation method. Time intensity profiles and particle spectra at multiple locations and different radial distances, separated in longitudes, are presented. The results shown here are relevant to the upcoming Parker Solar Probe mission.

Modelling substorm chorus events in terms of dispersive azimuthal drift

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. B. Collier

2004-12-01

Full Text Available The Substorm Chorus Event (SCE is a radio phenomenon observed on the ground after the onset of the substorm expansion phase. It consists of a band of VLF chorus with rising upper and lower cutoff frequencies. These emissions are thought to result from Doppler-shifted cyclotron resonance between whistler mode waves and energetic electrons which drift into a ground station's field of view from an injection site around midnight. The increasing frequency of the emission envelope has been attributed to the combined effects of energy dispersion due to gradient and curvature drifts, and the modification of resonance conditions and variation of the half-gyrofrequency cutoff resulting from the radial component of the ExB drift.

A model is presented which accounts for the observed features of the SCE in terms of the growth rate of whistler mode waves due to anisotropy in the electron distribution. This model provides an explanation for the increasing frequency of the SCE lower cutoff, as well as reproducing the general frequency-time signature of the event. In addition, the results place some restrictions on the injected particle source distribution which might lead to a SCE.

Key words. Space plasma physics (Wave-particle interaction – Magnetospheric physics (Plasma waves and instabilities; Storms and substorms

Teaching Metaphorical Extensions of Private Events through Rival-Model Observation to Children with Autism

Science.gov (United States)

Dixon, Mark R.; Belisle, Jordan; Munoz, Bridget E.; Stanley, Caleb R.; Rowsey, Kyle E.

2017-01-01

The study evaluated the efficacy of observational learning using the rival-model technique in teaching three children with autism to state metaphorical statements about emotions when provided a picture, as well as to intraverbally state an appropriate emotion when provided a scenario and corresponding metaphorical emotion. The results provide a…

Joint Models of Longitudinal and Time-to-Event Data with More Than One Event Time Outcome: A Review.

Science.gov (United States)

Hickey, Graeme L; Philipson, Pete; Jorgensen, Andrea; Kolamunnage-Dona, Ruwanthi

2018-01-31

Methodological development and clinical application of joint models of longitudinal and time-to-event outcomes have grown substantially over the past two decades. However, much of this research has concentrated on a single longitudinal outcome and a single event time outcome. In clinical and public health research, patients who are followed up over time may often experience multiple, recurrent, or a succession of clinical events. Models that utilise such multivariate event time outcomes are quite valuable in clinical decision-making. We comprehensively review the literature for implementation of joint models involving more than a single event time per subject. We consider the distributional and modelling assumptions, including the association structure, estimation approaches, software implementations, and clinical applications. Research into this area is proving highly promising, but to-date remains in its infancy.

Derivation of Event-B Models from OWL Ontologies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alkhammash Eman H.

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The derivation of formal specifications from large and complex requirements is a key challenge in systems engineering. In this paper we present an approach that aims to address this challenge by building formal models from OWL ontologies. An ontology is used in the field of knowledge representation to capture a clear view of the domain and to produce a concise and unambiguous set of domain requirements. We harness the power of ontologies to handle inconsistency of domain requirements and produce clear, concise and unambiguous set of domain requirements for Event-B modelling. The proposed approach works by generating Attempto Controlled English (ACE from the OWL ontology and then maps the ACE requirements to develop Event-B models. ACE is a subset of English that can be unambiguously translated into first-order logic. There is an injective mapping between OWL ontology and a subset of ACE. ACE is a suitable interlingua for producing the mapping between OWL and Event-B models for many reasons. Firstly, ACE is easy to learn and understand, it hides the math of OWL and would be natural to use by everybody. Secondly ACE has a parser that converts ACE texts into Discourse Representation Structures (DRS. Finally, ACE can be extended to target a richer syntactic subset of Event-B which ultimately would facilitate the translation of ACE requirements to Event-B.

Summary of exotic cosmic-ray events observed with the Mt. Fuji emulsion chambers

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Akashi, M.; Amenomori, M.; Konishi, E.

1982-01-01

The characters of peculiar gamma-ray families observed by a total of 700 m 2 year exposure of emulsion chambers at Mt.Fuji are presented. Their peculiarities are investigated in terms of clusterization and intercorrelation of various quantities of families. Double core families having clearly separated cores are selected by the cluster analysis method, and their structures are discussed in connection with large Pt and the type of incident primaries. The cluster analysis method is also applied to the examination of large multiplicity events so that we are free the limitation of spatial resolution. From the analysis of intercorrelation, it is stressed that the experimental data show larger fluctuations than expected ones from some model calculations

Computer modeling of the Cabriolet Event

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kamegai, M.

1979-01-01

Computer modeling techniques are described for calculating the results of underground nuclear explosions at depths shallow enough to produce cratering. The techniques are applied to the Cabriolet Event, a well-documented nuclear excavation experiment, and the calculations give good agreement with the experimental results. It is concluded that, given data obtainable by outside observers, these modeling techniques are capable of verifying the yield and depth of underground nuclear cratering explosions, and that they could thus be useful in monitoring another country's compliance with treaty agreements on nuclear testing limitations. Several important facts emerge from the study: (1) seismic energy is produced by only a fraction of the nuclear yield, a fraction depending strongly on the depth of shot and the mechanical properties of the surrounding rock; (2) temperature of the vented gas can be predicted accurately only if good equations of state are available for the rock in the detonation zone; and (3) temperature of the vented gas is strongly dependent on the cooling effect, before venting, of mixing with melted rock in the expanding cavity and, to a lesser extent, on the cooling effect of water in the rock

Modeling and simulation of discrete event systems

CERN Document Server

Choi, Byoung Kyu

2013-01-01

Computer modeling and simulation (M&S) allows engineers to study and analyze complex systems. Discrete-event system (DES)-M&S is used in modern management, industrial engineering, computer science, and the military. As computer speeds and memory capacity increase, so DES-M&S tools become more powerful and more widely used in solving real-life problems. Based on over 20 years of evolution within a classroom environment, as well as on decades-long experience in developing simulation-based solutions for high-tech industries, Modeling and Simulation of Discrete-Event Systems is the only book on

Characterization of the Sahelian-Sudan rainfall based on observations and regional climate models

Science.gov (United States)

Salih, Abubakr A. M.; Elagib, Nadir Ahmed; Tjernström, Michael; Zhang, Qiong

2018-04-01

The African Sahel region is known to be highly vulnerable to climate variability and change. We analyze rainfall in the Sahelian Sudan in terms of distribution of rain-days and amounts, and examine whether regional climate models can capture these rainfall features. Three regional models namely, Regional Model (REMO), Rossby Center Atmospheric Model (RCA) and Regional Climate Model (RegCM4), are evaluated against gridded observations (Climate Research Unit, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission, and ERA-interim reanalysis) and rain-gauge data from six arid and semi-arid weather stations across Sahelian Sudan over the period 1989 to 2008. Most of the observed rain-days are characterized by weak (0.1-1.0 mm/day) to moderate (> 1.0-10.0 mm/day) rainfall, with average frequencies of 18.5% and 48.0% of the total annual rain-days, respectively. Although very strong rainfall events (> 30.0 mm/day) occur rarely, they account for a large fraction of the total annual rainfall (28-42% across the stations). The performance of the models varies both spatially and temporally. RegCM4 most closely reproduces the observed annual rainfall cycle, especially for the more arid locations, but all of the three models fail to capture the strong rainfall events and hence underestimate its contribution to the total annual number of rain-days and rainfall amount. However, excessive moderate rainfall compensates this underestimation in the models in an annual average sense. The present study uncovers some of the models' limitations in skillfully reproducing the observed climate over dry regions, will aid model users in recognizing the uncertainties in the model output and will help climate and hydrological modeling communities in improving models.

The first SEPServer event catalogue ~68-MeV solar proton events observed at 1 AU in 1996–2010

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rodríguez-Gasén Rosa

2013-03-01

Full Text Available SEPServer is a three-year collaborative project funded by the seventh framework programme (FP7-SPACE of the European Union. The objective of the project is to provide access to state-of-the-art observations and analysis tools for the scientific community on solar energetic particle (SEP events and related electromagnetic (EM emissions. The project will eventually lead to better understanding of the particle acceleration and transport processes at the Sun and in the inner heliosphere. These processes lead to SEP events that form one of the key elements of space weather. In this paper we present the first results from the systematic analysis work performed on the following datasets: SOHO/ERNE, SOHO/EPHIN, ACE/EPAM, Wind/WAVES and GOES X-rays. A catalogue of SEP events at 1 AU, with complete coverage over solar cycle 23, based on high-energy (~68-MeV protons from SOHO/ERNE and electron recordings of the events by SOHO/EPHIN and ACE/EPAM are presented. A total of 115 energetic particle events have been identified and analysed using velocity dispersion analysis (VDA for protons and time-shifting analysis (TSA for electrons and protons in order to infer the SEP release times at the Sun. EM observations during the times of the SEP event onset have been gathered and compared to the release time estimates of particles. Data from those events that occurred during the European day-time, i.e., those that also have observations from ground-based observatories included in SEPServer, are listed and a preliminary analysis of their associations is presented. We find that VDA results for protons can be a useful tool for the analysis of proton release times, but if the derived proton path length is out of a range of 1 AU < s ≲ 3 AU, the result of the analysis may be compromised, as indicated by the anti-correlation of the derived path length and release time delay from the associated X-ray flare. The average path length derived from VDA is about 1.9 times

Utility of High Temporal Resolution Observations for Heat Health Event Characterization

Science.gov (United States)

Palecki, M. A.

2017-12-01

Many heat health watch systems produce a binary on/off warning when conditions are predicted to exceed a given threshold during a day. Days with warnings and their mortality/morbidity statistics are analyzed relative to days not warned to determine the impacts of the event on human health, the effectiveness of warnings, and other statistics. The climate analyses of the heat waves or extreme temperature events are often performed with hourly or daily observations of air temperature, humidity, and other measured or derived variables, especially the maxima and minima of these data. However, since the beginning of the century, 5-minute observations are readily available for many weather and climate stations in the United States. NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) has been collecting 5-minute observations from the NOAA Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS) stations since 2000, and from the U.S. Climate Reference Network (USCRN) stations since 2005. This presentation will demonstrate the efficacy of utilizing 5-minute environmental observations to characterize heat waves by counting the length of time conditions exceed extreme thresholds based on individual and multiple variables and on derived variables such as the heat index. The length and depth of recovery periods between daytime heating periods will also be examined. The length of time under extreme conditions will influence health outcomes for those directly exposed. Longer periods of dangerous conditions also could increase the chances for poor health outcomes for those only exposed intermittently through cumulative impacts.

Modeled seasonality of glacial abrupt climate events

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Flueckiger, Jacqueline [Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States); Environmental Physics, Institute of Biogeochemistry and Pollutant Dynamics, ETH Zuerich, Zurich (Switzerland); Knutti, Reto [Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zuerich, Zurich (Switzerland); White, James W.C. [Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States); Renssen, Hans [Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Faculty of Earth and Life Sciences, Amsterdam (Netherlands)

2008-11-15

Greenland ice cores, as well as many other paleo-archives from the northern hemisphere, recorded a series of 25 warm interstadial events, the so-called Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) events, during the last glacial period. We use the three-dimensional coupled global ocean-atmosphere-sea ice model ECBILT-CLIO and force it with freshwater input into the North Atlantic to simulate abrupt glacial climate events, which we use as analogues for D-O events. We focus our analysis on the Northern Hemisphere. The simulated events show large differences in the regional and seasonal distribution of the temperature and precipitation changes. While the temperature changes in high northern latitudes and in the North Atlantic region are dominated by winter changes, the largest temperature increases in most other land regions are seen in spring. Smallest changes over land are found during the summer months. Our model simulations also demonstrate that the temperature and precipitation change patterns for different intensifications of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation are not linear. The extent of the transitions varies, and local non-linearities influence the amplitude of the annual mean response as well as the response in different seasons. Implications for the interpretation of paleo-records are discussed. (orig.)

Soil moisture prediction: bridging event and continuous runoff modelling

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Sheikh, V.

2006-01-01

The general objective of this study was to investigate the possibility of providing spatially distributed soil moisture data for event-based hydrological models close before a rainfall event. The study area is known as "Catsop", a small catchmment in south Limburg. The models used are: LISEM and

A Unified Model for Tidal Disruption Events

Science.gov (United States)

Dai, Lixin; McKinney, Jonathan C.; Roth, Nathaniel; Ramirez-Ruiz, Enrico; Miller, M. Coleman

2018-06-01

In the past few years wide-field optical and UV transient surveys and X-ray telescopes have allowed us to identify a few dozen candidate tidal disruption events (TDEs). While in theory the physical processes in TDEs are ubiquitous, a few distinct classes of TDEs have been observed. Some TDEs radiate mainly in NUV/optical, while others produce prominent X-rays. Moreover, relativistic jets have been observed in only a handful of TDEs. This diversity might be related to the details of the super-Eddington accretion and emission physics relevant to TDE disks. In this Letter, we utilize novel three-dimensional general relativistic radiation magnetohydrodynamics simulations to study the super-Eddington compact disk phase expected in TDEs. Consistent with previous studies, geometrically thick disks, wide-angle optically thick fast outflows, and relativistic jets are produced. The outflow density and velocity depend sensitively on the inclination angle, and hence so does the reprocessing of emission produced from the inner disk. We then use Monte Carlo radiative transfer to calculate the reprocessed spectra and find that that the observed ratio of optical to X-ray fluxes increases with increasing inclination angle. This naturally leads to a unified model for different classes of TDEs in which the spectral properties of the TDE depend mainly on the viewing angle of the observer with respect to the orientation of the disk.

On the feasibility of using satellite gravity observations for detecting large-scale solid mass transfer events

Science.gov (United States)

Peidou, Athina C.; Fotopoulos, Georgia; Pagiatakis, Spiros

2017-10-01

The main focus of this paper is to assess the feasibility of utilizing dedicated satellite gravity missions in order to detect large-scale solid mass transfer events (e.g. landslides). Specifically, a sensitivity analysis of Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) gravity field solutions in conjunction with simulated case studies is employed to predict gravity changes due to past subaerial and submarine mass transfer events, namely the Agulhas slump in southeastern Africa and the Heart Mountain Landslide in northwestern Wyoming. The detectability of these events is evaluated by taking into account the expected noise level in the GRACE gravity field solutions and simulating their impact on the gravity field through forward modelling of the mass transfer. The spectral content of the estimated gravity changes induced by a simulated large-scale landslide event is estimated for the known spatial resolution of the GRACE observations using wavelet multiresolution analysis. The results indicate that both the Agulhas slump and the Heart Mountain Landslide could have been detected by GRACE, resulting in {\\vert }0.4{\\vert } and {\\vert }0.18{\\vert } mGal change on GRACE solutions, respectively. The suggested methodology is further extended to the case studies of the submarine landslide in Tohoku, Japan, and the Grand Banks landslide in Newfoundland, Canada. The detectability of these events using GRACE solutions is assessed through their impact on the gravity field.

A Monte Carlo study on event-by-event transverse momentum fluctuation at RHIC

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Xu Mingmei

2005-01-01

The experimental observation on the multiplicity dependence of event-by-event transverse momentum fluctuation in relativistic heavy ion collisions is studied using Monte Carlo simulation. It is found that the Monte Carlo generator HIJING is unable to describe the experimental phenomenon well. A simple Monte Carlo model is proposed, which can recover the data and thus shed some light on the dynamical origin of the multiplicity dependence of event-by-event transverse momentum fluctuation. (authors)

A Method to Quantify Plant Availability and Initiating Event Frequency Using a Large Event Tree, Small Fault Tree Model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kee, Ernest J.; Sun, Alice; Rodgers, Shawn; Popova, ElmiraV; Nelson, Paul; Moiseytseva, Vera; Wang, Eric

2006-01-01

South Texas Project uses a large fault tree to produce scenarios (minimal cut sets) used in quantification of plant availability and event frequency predictions. On the other hand, the South Texas Project probabilistic risk assessment model uses a large event tree, small fault tree for quantifying core damage and radioactive release frequency predictions. The South Texas Project is converting its availability and event frequency model to use a large event tree, small fault in an effort to streamline application support and to provide additional detail in results. The availability and event frequency model as well as the applications it supports (maintenance and operational risk management, system engineering health assessment, preventive maintenance optimization, and RIAM) are briefly described. A methodology to perform availability modeling in a large event tree, small fault tree framework is described in detail. How the methodology can be used to support South Texas Project maintenance and operations risk management is described in detail. Differences with other fault tree methods and other recently proposed methods are discussed in detail. While the methods described are novel to the South Texas Project Risk Management program and to large event tree, small fault tree models, concepts in the area of application support and availability modeling have wider applicability to the industry. (authors)

MMS Observations of the Evolution of Ion-Scale Flux Transfer Events

Science.gov (United States)

Zhao, C.; Russell, C. T.; Strangeway, R. J.; Paterson, W.; Petrinec, S.; Zhou, M.; Anderson, B. J.; Baumjohann, W.; Bromund, K. R.; Chutter, M.; Fischer, D.; Gershman, D. J.; Giles, B. L.; Le, G.; Nakamura, R.; Plaschke, F.; Slavin, J. A.; Torbert, R. B.

2017-12-01

Flux transfer events are key processes in the solar wind-magnetosphere interaction. Previously, the observed flux transfer events have had scale sizes of 10,000 km radius in the cross-section and connect about 2 MWb magnetic flux from solar wind to the terrestrial magnetosphere. Recently, from the high-temporal resolution MMS magnetic field data, many ion-scale FTEs have been found. These FTEs contains only about 2 kWb magnetic flux and are believed to be in an early stage of FTE evolution. With the help of the well-calibrated MMS data, we are also able to determine the velocity profile and forces within the FTE events. We find that some ion-scale FTEs are expanding as we expect, but there are also contracting FTEs. We examine the differences between the two classes of FTEs and their differences with the larger previously studied class of FTE.

XMM-NEWTON SLEW SURVEY OBSERVATIONS OF THE GRAVITATIONAL WAVE EVENT GW150914

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Troja, E. [NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, 8800 Greenbelt Rd, Greenbelt, MD 20771 (United States); Read, A. M. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, Leicester University, Leicester LE1 7RH (United Kingdom); Tiengo, A. [Istituto Universitario di Studi Superiori, piazza della Vittoria 15, I-27100 Pavia (Italy); Salvaterra, R. [Istituto di Astrofisica Spaziale e Fisica Cosmica Milano, INAF, via E. Bassini 15, I-20133 Milano (Italy)

2016-05-01

The detection of the first gravitational wave (GW) transient GW150914 prompted an extensive campaign of follow-up observations at all wavelengths. Although no dedicated XMM-Newton observations have been performed, the satellite passed through the GW150914 error region during normal operations. Here we report the analysis of the data taken during these satellite slews performed two hours and two weeks after the GW event. Our data cover 1.1 and 4.8 deg{sup 2} of the final GW localization region. No X-ray counterpart to GW150914 is found down to a sensitivity of 6 × 10{sup −13} erg cm{sup −2} s{sup −1} in the 0.2–2 keV band. Nevertheless, these observations show the great potential of XMM-Newton slew observations for searching for the electromagnetic counterparts of GW events. A series of adjacent slews performed in response to a GW trigger would take ≲1.5 days to cover most of the typical GW credible region. We discuss this scenario and its prospects for detecting the X-ray counterpart of future GW detections.

Observation of an optical event horizon in a silicon-on-insulator photonic wire waveguide.

Science.gov (United States)

Ciret, Charles; Leo, François; Kuyken, Bart; Roelkens, Gunther; Gorza, Simon-Pierre

2016-01-11

We report on the first experimental observation of an optical analogue of an event horizon in integrated nanophotonic waveguides, through the reflection of a continuous wave on an intense pulse. The experiment is performed in a dispersion-engineered silicon-on-insulator waveguide. In this medium, solitons do not suffer from Raman induced self-frequency shift as in silica fibers, a feature that is interesting for potential applications of optical event horizons. As shown by simulations, this also allows the observation of multiple reflections at the same time on fundamental solitons ejected by soliton fission.

Observation of hard processes in rapidity gap events in {gamma}p interactions at HERA

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ahmed, T.; Aid, S.; Andreev, V.; Andrieu, B.; Appuhn, R.D.; Arpagaus, M.; Babaev, A.; Baehr, J.; Ban, J.; Baranov, P.; Barrelet, E.; Bartel, W.; Barth, M.; Bassler, U.; Beck, H.P.; Behrend, H.J.; Belousov, A.; Berger, C.; Bergstein, H.; Bernardi, G.; Bernet, R.; Bertrand-Coremans, G.; Besancon, M.; Beyer, R.; Biddulph, P.; Bizot, J.C.; Blobel, V.; Borras, K.; Botterweck, F.; Boudry, V.; Braemer, A.; Brasse, F.; Braunschweig, W.; Brisson, V.; Bruncko, D.; Brune, C.; Buchholz, R.; Buengener, L.; Buerger, J.; Buesser, F.W.; Buniatian, A.; Burke, S.; Buschhorn, G.; Campbell, A.J.; Carli, T.; Charles, F.; Clarke, D.; Clegg, A.B.; Clerbaux, B.; Colombo, M.; Contreras, J.G.; Coughlan, J.A.; Courau, A.; Coutures, C.; Cozzika, G.; Criegee, L.; Cussans, D.G.; Cvach, J.; Dagoret, S.; Dainton, J.B.; Danilov, M.; Dau, W.D.; Daum, K.; David, M.; Deffur, E.; Delcourt, B.; Del Buono, L.; De Roeck, A.; De Wolf, E.A.; Di Nezza, P.; Dollfus, C.; Dowell, J.D.; Dreis, H.B.; Droutskoi, V.; Duboc, J.; Duellmann, D.; Duenger, O.; Duhm, H.; Ebert, J.; Ebert, T.R.; Eckerlin, G.; Efremenko, V.; Egli, S.; Ehrlichmann, H.; Eichenberger, S.; Eichler, R.; Eisele, F.; Eisenhandler, E.; Ellison, R.J.; Elsen, E.; Erdmann, M.; Erdmann, W.; Evrard, E.; Favart, L.; Fedotov, A.; Feeken, D.; Felst, R.; Feltesse, J.; Ferencei, J.; Ferrarotto, F.; Flamm, K.; Fleischer, M.; Flieser, M.; Fluegge, G.; Fomenko, A.; Fominykh, B.; Forbush, M.; Formanek, J.; Foster, J.M.; Franke, G.; Fretwurst, E.; Gabathuler, E.; Gabathuler, K.; Gamerdinger, K.; Garvey, J.; Gayler, J.; Gebauer, M.; Gellrich, A.; Genzel, H.; Gerhards, R.; Goerlach, U.; Goerlich, L.; Gogitidze, N.; Goldberg, M.; Goldner, D.; Gonzalez-Pineiro, B.; Goodall, A.M.; Gorelov, I.; Goritchev, P.; Grab, C.; Graessler, H.; Graessler, R.; Greenshaw, T.; Grindhammer, G.; Gruber, A.; Gruber, C.; Haack, J.; Haidt, D.; Hajduk, L.; Hamon, O.; Hampel, M.; Hanlon, E.M.; Hapke, M.; Haynes, W.J.; Heatherington, J.; Heinzelmann, G.; Henderson, R.C.W.; H1 Collaboration

1995-02-06

Events with no hadronic energy flow in a large interval of pseudo-rapidity in the proton direction are observed in photon-proton interactions at an average centre of mass energy left angle {radical}(s{sub {gamma}p}) right angle of 200 GeV. These events are interpreted as photon diffractive dissociation. Evidence for hard scattering in photon diffractive dissociation is demonstrated using inclusive single particle spectra, thrust as a function of transverse energy, and the observation of jet production. The data can be described by a Monte Carlo calculation including hard photon-pomeron scattering. ((orig.))

Observation of events with an energetic forward neutron in deep inelastic scattering at HERA

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Derrick, M.; Krakauer, D.; Magill, S.

1996-05-01

In deep inelastic neutral current scattering of positrons and protons at the center of mass energy of 300 GeV, we observe, with the ZEUS detector, events with a high energy neutron produced at very small scattering angles with respect to the proton direction. The events constitute a fixed fraction of the deep inelastic, neutral current event sample independent of Bjorken x and Q 2 in the range 3.10 -4 BJ -3 and 10 2 2 . (orig.)

Integration of Local Observations into the One Dimensional Fog Model PAFOG

Science.gov (United States)

Thoma, Christina; Schneider, Werner; Masbou, Matthieu; Bott, Andreas

2012-05-01

The numerical prediction of fog requires a very high vertical resolution of the atmosphere. Owing to a prohibitive computational effort of high resolution three dimensional models, operational fog forecast is usually done by means of one dimensional fog models. An important condition for a successful fog forecast with one dimensional models consists of the proper integration of observational data into the numerical simulations. The goal of the present study is to introduce new methods for the consideration of these data in the one dimensional radiation fog model PAFOG. First, it will be shown how PAFOG may be initialized with observed visibilities. Second, a nudging scheme will be presented for the inclusion of measured temperature and humidity profiles in the PAFOG simulations. The new features of PAFOG have been tested by comparing the model results with observations of the German Meteorological Service. A case study will be presented that reveals the importance of including local observations in the model calculations. Numerical results obtained with the modified PAFOG model show a distinct improvement of fog forecasts regarding the times of fog formation, dissipation as well as the vertical extent of the investigated fog events. However, model results also reveal that a further improvement of PAFOG might be possible if several empirical model parameters are optimized. This tuning can only be realized by comprehensive comparisons of model simulations with corresponding fog observations.

A simple conceptual model of abrupt glacial climate events

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

H. Braun

2007-11-01

Full Text Available Here we use a very simple conceptual model in an attempt to reduce essential parts of the complex nonlinearity of abrupt glacial climate changes (the so-called Dansgaard-Oeschger events to a few simple principles, namely (i the existence of two different climate states, (ii a threshold process and (iii an overshooting in the stability of the system at the start and the end of the events, which is followed by a millennial-scale relaxation. By comparison with a so-called Earth system model of intermediate complexity (CLIMBER-2, in which the events represent oscillations between two climate states corresponding to two fundamentally different modes of deep-water formation in the North Atlantic, we demonstrate that the conceptual model captures fundamental aspects of the nonlinearity of the events in that model. We use the conceptual model in order to reproduce and reanalyse nonlinear resonance mechanisms that were already suggested in order to explain the characteristic time scale of Dansgaard-Oeschger events. In doing so we identify a new form of stochastic resonance (i.e. an overshooting stochastic resonance and provide the first explicitly reported manifestation of ghost resonance in a geosystem, i.e. of a mechanism which could be relevant for other systems with thresholds and with multiple states of operation. Our work enables us to explicitly simulate realistic probability measures of Dansgaard-Oeschger events (e.g. waiting time distributions, which are a prerequisite for statistical analyses on the regularity of the events by means of Monte-Carlo simulations. We thus think that our study is an important advance in order to develop more adequate methods to test the statistical significance and the origin of the proposed glacial 1470-year climate cycle.

Observed versus predicted cardiovascular events and all-cause death in HIV infection: a longitudinal cohort study.

Science.gov (United States)

De Socio, Giuseppe Vittorio; Pucci, Giacomo; Baldelli, Franco; Schillaci, Giuseppe

2017-06-12

The aim of the study was to assess the applicability of an algorithm predicting 10-year cardiovascular disease (CVD) generated in the setting of the Framingham Heart Study to a real-life, contemporary Italian cohort of HIV-positive subjects. The study was an observational longitudinal cohort study. The probability for 10-year CVD events according to the Framingham algorithm was assessed in 369 consecutive HIV-positive participants free from overt CVD enrolled in 2004, who were followed for a median of 10.0 years (interquartile range, 9.1-10.1). Cardiovascular events included myocardial infarction, hospitalized heart failure, revascularized angina, sudden cardiac death, stroke, peripheral arterial disease. Over 3097 person-years of observation, we observed a total of 34 CVD events, whereas Framingham algorithm predicted the occurrence of 34.3 CVD events. CVD event rate was 11.0/1000 person-years of follow-up. In a receiver operating characteristics curve analysis, Framingham risk equation showed an excellent predictive value for incident CVD events (c-statistics, 0.83; 95% confidence interval, 0.76-0.90). In a multivariable Cox analysis, age, smoking and diabetes were independent predictors of CVD events. All-cause death rate was 20.0/1000 person-years of follow-up (n = 62 deaths). Causes of death included liver diseases (18), malignancies (14), AIDS-related (11); cardiovascular (9) and others (10). In a Cox analysis, age, AIDS diagnosis and chronic hepatitis were independent predictors of death. Observed CVD events in HIV-infected patients were well predicted by Framingham algorithm. Established major CVD risk factors are the strongest determinants of CVD morbidity in an Italian contemporary cohort of HIV-positive subjects. Interventions to modify traditional risk factors are urgently needed in HIV people.

A survey of flux transfer events observed in the dayside magnetopause

Science.gov (United States)

Silveira, M. D.; Sibeck, D. G.; Lee, S. H.; Gonzalez, W.; Koga, D.

2017-12-01

Flux transfer events (FTE) have been interpreted to be results from transient magnetic reconnection and can be observed in the vicinity of the Earth's magnetopause, as well in other planets. FTE acts as a flux tube connecting the magnetosheath to the magnetosphere allowing the transference of particles, energy and momentum in both sides magnetopause. Their main signatures in satellite data are bipolar variation in the magnetic field component normal to the magnetopause, centered in an enhanced magnetic field strength. Other signatures such as pressure imbalance, bulk flow jets, and particle anisotropy distribution can be observed inside the those structures. We surveyed FTEs observed by MMS on the vicinity of the magnetopause (from x = 0 to 13Re and y = -12 to 12Re). Taking advantage of the MMS tetrahedron configuration we will employed timing analysis to determine the FTEs direction of motion and scale lengths. We will present information about occurrence related with IMF clock angle and other parameters, amplitude of the perturbations induced by the FTEs in the environment magnetic field and plasma; characteristic time and structure scale size. Using data from ACE, Wind and Artemis we can evaluate which is the best solar wind monitor for each FTE observed and then employ the appropriated lag time corresponding to FTE location and magnetic field orientation. The objective is to investigate the mechanisms of generation of FTEs comparing characteristics of the events observed on the dayside region and on the magnetopause flanks determining the motion and speed of FTEs.

Developing a forecast model of solar proton flux profiles for well-connected events

Science.gov (United States)

Ji, E. Y.; Moon, Y. J.; Park, J.

2014-12-01

We have developed a forecast model of solar proton flux profile (> 10 MeV channel) for well-connected events. Among 136 solar proton events (SPEs) from 1986 to 2006, we select 49 well-connected ones that are all associated with single X-ray flares stronger than M1 class and start to increase within four hours after their X-ray peak times. These events show rapid increments in proton flux. By comparing several empirical functions, we select a modified Weibull curve function to approximate a SPE flux profile, which is similar to the particle injection rate. The parameters (peak value, rise time and decay time) of this function are determined by the relationship between X-ray flare parameters (peak flux, impulsive time, and emission measure) and SPE parameters. For 49 well-connected SPEs, the linear correlation between the predicted proton peak flux and the observed proton peak fluxes is 0.65 with the RMS error of 0.55 pfu in the log10. In addition, we have developed another forecast model based on flare and CME parameters using 22 SPEs. The used CME parameters are linear speed and angular width. As a result, we find that the linear correlation between the predicted proton peak flux and the observed proton peak fluxes is 0.83 with the RMS error of 0.35 pfu in the log10. From the relationship between the model error and CME acceleration, we find that CME acceleration is also an important factor for predicting proton flux profiles.

Observations of new particle formation events in the south-eastern Baltic Sea

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kristina Plauškaitė

2010-03-01

Full Text Available New particle formation and growth were observed at a coastal site (Preila station, Lithuania during 1997 and 2000-2002. The total amountof data analysed covers 291 one-day periods, 45 (15% of which were long-term, new particle formation days. Short-term nucleationevents (from a few minutes to one hour and long-term events (from one to eight hours were identified. The mean particlegrowth rate, condensation sink and condensable vapour source rate during nucleation events were 3.9 nm h-1, 1.45 × 10-3 cm-3 s-1 and 7.5 × 104 cm-3 s-1 respectively.The average formation rate J10 was 0.4 cm-3 s-1. The nucleation events were accompaniedmainly by air masses transported from the north (43% and north-west (19%. Meteorological parameters and trace gas (O3, SO2,NO2 concentrations were also analysed. It was found that nucleation events are related to high levels of solar radiation.

Fast radio burst event rate counts - I. Interpreting the observations

Science.gov (United States)

Macquart, J.-P.; Ekers, R. D.

2018-02-01

The fluence distribution of the fast radio burst (FRB) population (the `source count' distribution, N (>F) ∝Fα), is a crucial diagnostic of its distance distribution, and hence the progenitor evolutionary history. We critically reanalyse current estimates of the FRB source count distribution. We demonstrate that the Lorimer burst (FRB 010724) is subject to discovery bias, and should be excluded from all statistical studies of the population. We re-examine the evidence for flat, α > -1, source count estimates based on the ratio of single-beam to multiple-beam detections with the Parkes multibeam receiver, and show that current data imply only a very weak constraint of α ≲ -1.3. A maximum-likelihood analysis applied to the portion of the Parkes FRB population detected above the observational completeness fluence of 2 Jy ms yields α = -2.6_{-1.3}^{+0.7 }. Uncertainties in the location of each FRB within the Parkes beam render estimates of the Parkes event rate uncertain in both normalizing survey area and the estimated post-beam-corrected completeness fluence; this uncertainty needs to be accounted for when comparing the event rate against event rates measured at other telescopes.

Observation of monojet events and tentative interpretation

Science.gov (United States)

Buskulic, D.; Casper, D.; de Bonis, I.; Decamp, D.; Ghez, P.; Goy, C.; Lees, J.-P.; Minard, M.-N.; Odier, P.; Pietrzyk, B.; Ariztazabal, F.; Chmeissani, M.; Crespo, J. M.; Efthymiopoulos, I.; Fernandez, E.; Fernandez-Bosman, M.; Gaitan, V.; Garrido, Ll.; Martinez, M.; Mattison, T.; Orteu, S.; Pacheco, A.; Padilla, C.; Palla, F.; Pascual, A.; Perlas, J. A.; Teubert, F.; Creanza, D.; de Palma, M.; Farilla, A.; Iaselli, G.; Maggi, G.; Marinelli, N.; Natali, S.; Nuzzo, S.; Ranieri, A.; Raso, G.; Romano, F.; Ruggieri, F.; Selvaggi, G.; Silvestris, L.; Tempesta, P.; Zito, G.; Chai, Y.; Huang, D.; Huang, X.; Lin, J.; Wang, T.; Xie, Y.; Xu, D.; Zhang, J.; Zhang, L.; Zhao, W.; Donvicini, G.; Boudreau, J.; Comas, P.; Coyle, P.; Drevermann, H.; Engelhardt, A.; Foà, L.; Forty, R. W.; Ganis, G.; Gay, C.; Girone, M.; Hagelberg, R.; Harvey, J.; Jacobsen, R.; Jost, B.; Knobloch, J.; Lehraus, I.; Maggi, M.; Markou, C.; Martin, E. B.; Mato, P.; Meinhard, H.; Minten, A.; Miquel, R.; Palazzi, P.; Pater, J. R.; Perrodo, P.; Pusztaszeri, J.-F.; Ranjard, F.; Rolandi, L.; Rothberg, J.; Saich, M.; Schlatter, D.; Schmelling, M.; Tejessy, W.; Tomalin, I. R.; Veenhof, R.; Venturi, A.; Wachsmuth, H.; Wasserbaech, S.; Wiedenmann, W.; Wildish, T.; Witzeling, W.; Wotschack, J.; Ajaltouni, Z.; Bardadin-Otwinowska, M.; Barres, A.; Boyer, C.; Falvard, A.; Gay, P.; Guicheney, C.; Henrard, P.; Jousset, J.; Michel, B.; Montret, J.-C.; Pallin, D.; Perret, P.; Podlyski, F.; Proriol, J.; Saadi, F.; Fearnley, T.; Hansen, J. B.; Hansen, J. D.; Hansen, J. R.; Hansen, P. H.; Johnson, S. D.; Møllerud, R.; Nilsson, B. S.; Kyriakis, A.; Simopoulou, E.; Siotis, I.; Vayaki, A.; Zachariadou, K.; Blondel, A.; Bonneaud, G.; Brient, J. C.; Bourdon, P.; Passalacqua, L.; Rougé, A.; Rumpf, M.; Tanaka, R.; Valassi, A.; Verderi, M.; Videau, H.; Candlin, D. J.; Parsons, M. I.; Veitch, E.; Focardi, E.; Parrini, G.; Corden, M.; Delfino, M.; Georgiopoulos, C.; Jaffe, D. E.; Levinthal, D.; Antonelli, A.; Bencivenni, G.; Bologna, G.; Bossi, F.; Campana, P.; Capon, G.; Cerutti, F.; Chiarella, V.; Felici, G.; Laurelli, P.; Mannocchi, G.; Murtas, F.; Murtas, G. P.; Pepe-Altarelli, M.; Salomone, S.; Colrain, P.; Ten Have, I.; Knowles, I. G.; Lynch, J. G.; Maitland, W.; Morton, W. T.; Raine, C.; Reeves, P.; Scarr, J. M.; Smith, K.; Smith, M. G.; Thompson, A. S.; Thorn, S.; Turnbull, R. M.; Becker, U.; Braun, O.; Geweniger, C.; Hanke, P.; Hepp, V.; Kluge, E. E.; Putzer, A.; Rensch, B.; Schmidt, M.; Stenzel, H.; Tittel, K.; Wunsch, M.; Beuselinck, R.; Binnie, D. M.; Cameron, W.; Cattaneo, M.; Colling, D. J.; Dornan, P. J.; Hassard, J. F.; Konstantinidis, N.; Moneta, L.; Moutoussi, A.; Nash, J.; Payne, D. G.; San Martin, G.; Sedgbeer, J. K.; Wright, A. G.; Girtler, P.; Kuhn, D.; Rudolph, G.; Vogl, R.; Bowdery, C. K.; Brodbeck, T. J.; Finch, A. J.; Foster, F.; Hughes, G.; Jackson, D.; Keemer, N. R.; Nuttall, M.; Patel, A.; Sloan, T.; Snow, S. W.; Whelan, E. P.; Galla, A.; Greene, A. M.; Kleinknecht, K.; Raab, J.; Renk, B.; Sander, H.-G.; Schmidt, H.; Walther, S. M.; Wanke, R.; Wolf, B.; Bencheikh, A. M.; Benchouk, C.; Bonissent, A.; Calvet, D.; Carr, J.; Diaconu, C.; Etienne, F.; Nicod, D.; Payre, P.; Roos, L.; Rousseau, D.; Schwemling, P.; Talby, M.; Abt, I.; Adlung, S.; Assmann, R.; Bauer, C.; Blum, W.; Brown, D.; Cattaneo, P.; Dehning, B.; Dietl, H.; Dydak, F.; Frank, M.; Halley, A. W.; Jakobs, K.; Kroha, H.; Lauber, J.; Lütjens, G.; Lutz, G.; Männer, W.; Moser, H.-G.; Richter, R.; Schröder, J.; Schwarz, A. S.; Settles, R.; Seywerd, H.; Stierlin, U.; Stiegler, U.; St. Denis, R.; Wolf, G.; Alemany, R.; Boucrot, J.; Callot, O.; Cordier, A.; Courault, F.; Davier, M.; Duflot, L.; Grivaz, J.-F.; Heusse, Ph.; Jacquet, M.; Janot, P.; Kim, D. W.; Le Diberder, F.; Lefrançois, J.; Lutz, A.-M.; Musolino, G.; Nikolic, I.; Park, H. J.; Park, I. C.; Schune, M.-H.; Simion, S.; Veillet, J.-J.; Videau, I.; Abbaneo, D.; Bagliwsi, G.; Batignani, G.; Bottigli, U.; Bozzi, C.; Calderini, G.; Carpinelli, M.; Ciocci, M. A.; Ciulli, V.; Dell'Orso, R.; Ferrante, I.; Fidecaro, F.; Forti, F.; Giassi, A.; Giorgi, M. A.; Gregorio, A.; Ligabue, F.; Lusiani, A.; Marrocchesi, P. S.; Messineo, A.; Rizzo, G.; Sanguinetti, G.; Spagnolo, P.; Steinberger, J.; Tenchini, R.; Tonelli, G.; Triggiani, G.; Vannini, C.; Verdini, P. G.; Walsh, J.; Betteridge, A. P.; Gao, Y.; Green, M. G.; Johnson, D. L.; March, P. V.; Medcalf, T.; Mir, Ll. M.; Quazi, I. S.; Strong, J. A.; Bertin, V.; Botterill, D. R.; Clifft, R. W.; Edgecock, T. R.; Haywood, S.; Edwards, M.; Norton, P. R.; Thompson, J. C.; Bloch-Devaux, B.; Colas, P.; Duarte, H.; Emery, S.; Kozanecki, W.; Lançon, E.; Lemaire, M. C.; Locci, E.; Marx, B.; Perez, P.; Rander, J.; Renardy, J.-F.; Rosowsky, A.; Roussarie, A.; Schuller, J.-P.; Schwindling, J.; Si Mohand, D.; Vallage, B.; Johnson, R. P.; Litke, A. M.; Taylor, G.; Wear, J.; Beddall, A.; Booth, C. N.; Cartwright, S.; Combley, F.; Dawson, I.; Koksal, A.; Rankin, C.; Thompson, L. F.; Böhrer, A.; Brandt, S.; Cowan, G.; Feigl, E.; Grupen, C.; Lutters, G.; Minguet-Rodriguez, J.; Rivera, F.; Saraiva, P.; Schäfer, U.; Smolik, L.; Bosisio, L.; Della Marina, R.; Giannini, G.; Gobbo, B.; Pitis, L.; Ragusa, F.; Bellantoni, L.; Conway, J. S.; Feng, Z.; Ferguson, D. P. S.; Gao, Y. S.; Grahl, J.; Harton, J. L.; Hayes, O. J.; Hu, H.; Nachtman, J. M.; Pan, Y. B.; Saadi, Y.; Schmitt, M.; Scott, I.; Sharma, V.; Turk, J. D.; Walsh, A. M.; Weber, F. V.; San Lan Wu; Wu, X.; Yamartino, J. M.; Zheng, M.; Zobernig, G.; Aleph Collaboration

1994-08-01

A data sample corresponding to almost two million hadronic Z decays collected by the ALEPH detector at LEP has been searched for monojet events. Three events were found, in agreement with the expectation from the process ee→γ*vvbar, with γ*→ffbar. Two events are hadronic, the third one being an e+e- pair. All monojet masses are in excess of 3 GeV/c2, and two of the event have large transverse momenta: 18.5 and 20.3 GeV/c. These kinematic characteristics are quite unlikely in the process ee→γ*vvbar. The probability of their occurence increases substantially when processes involving further Z or W exchanges are taken into account, but still remains at the 5% level.

Radio observations of the γ-ray quasar 0528+134. Superluminal motion and an extreme scattering event.

Science.gov (United States)

Pohl, M.; Reich, W.; Krichbaum, T. P.; Standke, K.; Britzen, S.; Reuter, H. P.; Reich, P.; Schlickeiser, R.; Fiedler, R. L.; Waltman, E. B.; Ghigo, F. D.; Johnston, K. J.

1995-11-01

in the Orion complex and that we note frequent fluctuations of the order of 25% at 2.3GHz/2.695GHz, our lowest monitoring frequencies, while the variations at higher frequencies are more smooth. It is shown that the appearance of the extreme scattering event in the light curves of 0528+134 depends strongly on its VLBI structure and on the observed spectral appearance in our two frequency VLBI data. Due to these strong constraints our successful modelling provides the best available evidence that unusual variability behaviour of AGN may be caused by extreme scattering events and that localised (r<1AU) and dense (n_e_=100-1000cm^-3^) plasma structures do exist in the interstellar medium of our Galaxy.

W-band spaceborne radar observations of atmospheric river events

Science.gov (United States)

Matrosov, S. Y.

2010-12-01

While the main objective of the world first W-band radar aboard the CloudSat satellite is to provide vertically resolved information on clouds, it proved to be a valuable tool for observing precipitation. The CloudSat radar is generally able to resolve precipitating cloud systems in their vertical entirety. Although measurements from the liquid hydrometer layer containing rainfall are strongly attenuated, special retrieval approaches can be used to estimate rainfall parameters. These approaches are based on vertical gradients of observed radar reflectivity factor rather than on absolute estimates of reflectivity. Concurrent independent estimations of ice cloud parameters in the same vertical column allow characterization of precipitating systems and provide information on coupling between clouds and rainfall they produce. The potential of CloudSat for observations atmospheric river events affecting the West Coast of North America is evaluated. It is shown that spaceborne radar measurements can provide high resolution information on the height of the freezing level thus separating areas of rainfall and snowfall. CloudSat precipitation rate estimates complement information from the surface-based radars. Observations of atmospheric rivers at different locations above the ocean and during landfall help to understand evolutions of atmospheric rivers and their structures.

An Event Observed as a Terrestrial Gamma-ray Flash (TGF) and a Terrestrial Electron Beam (TEB) by Fermi GBM

Science.gov (United States)

Stanbro, M.; Briggs, M. S.; Cramer, E.; Dwyer, J. R.; Roberts, O.

2017-12-01

Terrestrial Gamma-ray Flashes (TGFs) are sub-ms, intense flashes of gamma-rays. They are due to the acceleration of electrons with relativistic energies in thunderstorms that emit gamma-rays via bremsstrahlung. When these photons reach the upper atmosphere, they can produce secondary electrons and positrons that escape the atmosphere and propagate along the Earth's magnetic field line. Space instruments can detect these charged particles, known as Terrestrial Electron Beams (TEBs), after traveling thousands of kilometers from the thunderstorm. We present an event that was observed by the Fermi Gamma-ray Burst Monitor (GBM) as both a TGF and a TEB. To our knowledge this is the first such event that has ever been observed. We interpret the first pulse as a TGF with a duration of 0.2 ms. After 0.5 ms a second pulse is seen with a duration of 2 ms that we interpret as a TEB. Confirming this interpretation, a third pulse is seen 90 ms later, which is understood as a TEB magnetic mirror pulse. The World Wide Lightning Location Network (WWLLN) and the Earth Networks Total Lightning Network (ENTLN) detected a sferic, under the spacecraft footprint and within the southern magnetic footprint that is simultaneous with the first pulse. Along with the sferic, this unique observation allows us for the first time to test TGF and TEB models for the same event. We present Monte Carlo simulations of the first two pulses, including pitch angles for electrons and positrons, to see if the models can consistently describe the TGF/TEB spectra and time profiles originating from the same source.

Reconstruction and numerical modelling of a flash flood event: Atrani 2010

Science.gov (United States)

Ciervo, F.; Papa, M. N.; Medina, V.; Bateman, A.

2012-04-01

The work intends to reproduce the flash-flood event that occurred in Atrani (Amalfi Coast - Southern Italy) on the 9 September 2010. In the days leading up to the event, intense low pressure system affected the North Europe attracting hot humid air masses from the Mediterranean areas and pushing them to the southern regions of Italy. These conditions contributed to the development of strong convective storm systems, Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCS) type. The development of intense convective rain cells, over an extremely confined areas, leaded to a cumulative daily rainfall of 129.2 mm; the maximum precipitation in 1hr was 19.4mm. The Dragone river is artificially forced to flow underneath the urban estate of Atrani through a culvert until it finally flows out into the sea. In correspondence of the culvert inlet a minor fraction of the water discharge (5.9m^3/s), skimming over the channel cover, flowed on the street and invaded the village. The channelized flow generated overpressure involving the breaking of the cover of culvert slab and caused a new discharge inlet (20 m^3/s) on the street modifying the downstream flood dynamics. Information acquired, soon after the event, through the local people interviews and the field measurements significantly contributed to the rainfall event reconstruction and to the characterization of the induced effects. In absence of hydrometric data, the support of the amateur videos was of crucial importance for the hydraulic model development and calibration. A geomorphology based rainfall-runoff model, WFIUH type (Instantaneous Unit Hydrograph Width Function), is implemented to extract the hydrograph of the hydrological event. All analysis are performed with GIS support basing on a Digital Terrain System (DTM) 5x5m. Two parameters have been used to calibrate the model: the average watershed velocity (Vmean = 0.08m/s) and hydrodynamic diffusivity (D=10E^-6 m^2/s). The model is calibrated basing on the peak discharge assessed value

Abstracting event-based control models for high autonomy systems

Science.gov (United States)

Luh, Cheng-Jye; Zeigler, Bernard P.

1993-01-01

A high autonomy system needs many models on which to base control, management, design, and other interventions. These models differ in level of abstraction and in formalism. Concepts and tools are needed to organize the models into a coherent whole. The paper deals with the abstraction processes for systematic derivation of related models for use in event-based control. The multifaceted modeling methodology is briefly reviewed. The morphism concepts needed for application to model abstraction are described. A theory for supporting the construction of DEVS models needed for event-based control is then presented. An implemented morphism on the basis of this theory is also described.

Modeling flood events for long-term stability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schruben, T.; Portillo, R.

1985-01-01

The primary objective for the disposal of uranium mill tailings in the Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project is isolation and stabilization to prevent their misuse by man and dispersal by natural forces such as wind, rain, and flood waters (40 CFR-192). Stabilization of sites that are located in or near flood plains presents unique problems in design for long-term performance. This paper discusses the process involved with the selection and hydrologic modeling of the design flood event; and hydraulic modeling with geomorphic considerations of the design flood event. The Gunnison, Colorado, and Riverton, Wyoming, sites will be used as examples in describing the process

Discrete event simulation: Modeling simultaneous complications and outcomes

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Quik, E.H.; Feenstra, T.L.; Krabbe, P.F.M.

2012-01-01

OBJECTIVES: To present an effective and elegant model approach to deal with specific characteristics of complex modeling. METHODS: A discrete event simulation (DES) model with multiple complications and multiple outcomes that each can occur simultaneously was developed. In this DES model parameters,

The comparison of SRs' variation affected by solar events observed in America and in China

Science.gov (United States)

Yu, H.; Williams, E.

2017-12-01

Schumann Resonances(SRs) are the electromagnetic resonance wave propagating in the earth-ionosphere cavity. Its characteristic of propagation are modified by the variation of ionosphere. So SRs can be the tools of monitoring the ionosphere which is often perturbed by solar events, x-ray emission and some other space-weather events (Roldugin et.al., 2004, De et al., 2010; Satori et.al., 2015). In present work, the amplitude and intrinsic frequencies of SRs observed at RID station in America and YSH station in China are compared. The variation of SRs during the solar flare on Feb. 15, 2011 are analyzed. Two-Dimensional Telegraph Equation(TDTE) method is used to simulate the perturbation of ionosphere by solar proton events. From the simulation and observation, the asymmetric construction of ionoshphere which is perturbed by the solar event will affect the amplitudes and frequencies of SRs. Due to the interfere influence of forward and backward propagation of electromagnetic field, the SR amplitude on different station will present different variation. The distance among the lightning source, observer and perturbed area will produce the different variation of amplitude and frequency for different station' SR.

A study of different colour reconnection settings for Pythia8 generator using underlying event observables

CERN Document Server

The ATLAS collaboration

2017-01-01

A study of the performance of various colour reconnection models included in the Pythia8 Monte Carlo event generator is performed using leading charged-particle underlying event data in three centre-of-mass energies from Run 1 and Run 2, measured in ATLAS. Each model can be tuned to describe the data reasonably well.

Transient Cosmic-ray Events beyond the Heliopause: Interpreting Voyager-1 Observations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kóta, J.; Jokipii, J. R. [Lunar and Planetary Laboratory, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721-0092 (United States)

2017-04-20

In 2013 March and 2014 May, Voyager-1 ( V1 ) experienced small but significant increases in the flux of galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) in the hundred MeV/n range. Additionally, V1 also saw episodic depletion of GCR flux around perpendicular pitch angles. We discuss the pitch-angle distribution and the time profiles of these events. In a previous paper, we interpreted the 2013 “bump” as the GCRs remotely sensing a shock that reached the magnetic field line passing through V1 : particles gained energy as they were reflected on the approaching region of the stronger magnetic field of the disturbance. Here, we point out that energy gain is not restricted to reflected particles—GCRs passing through the disturbance also gain energy. The effect should be present in a broad range of pitch angles with the maximum increase of GCR intensity predicted to occur at the critical reflection angle. In this paper, the shock is not step-like, but a gradual increase of the magnetic field strength, B , taking a few days, in agreement with V1 measurements. This smoothens the profile of the predicted bump in the GCR flux. We also address the linear episodic decreases seen around perpendicular pitch angles. These events are interpreted in terms of adiabatic cooling behind the shock due to the slow weakening of B . We present simple numerical model calculations and find that a gradual shock followed by a slow decrease of B , as observed, may account for both the episodic increases and the anisotropic depletion of GCR fluxes.

Remarks on the first two events in the supernova burst observed by Kamiokande II

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rosen, S.P.

1988-01-01

We examine the possibility, remote but not totally improbable, that one of the first two supernova events observed in the Kamiokande II detector consists of an electron neutrino scattering from an electron. From arguments of timing we show that this possibility can be realized only for the first event, and that it requires the electron-neutrino mass to be less than 2.5 eV. The occurrence of such an event means that, of the various Mikheyev-Smirnov-Wolfenstein solutions to the solar-neutrino problem, the nonadiabatic one is likely to be correct

Implementation of PSA models to estimate the probabilities associated with external event combination

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Burgazzi, Luciano

2014-01-01

This note endeavors to address some significant issues revealed by the Fukushima accident in Japan in 2011, such as the analysis of various dependency aspects arisen in the light of the external event PSA framework, as the treatment of the correlated hazards. To this aim some foundational notions to implement the PSA models related to specific aspects, like the external hazard combination, e.g., earthquake and tsunami as at the Fukushima accident, and the external hazard-caused internal events, e.g., seismic induced fire, are proposed and discussed to be incorporated within the risk assessment structure. Risk assessment of external hazards is required and utilized as an integrated part of PRA for operating and new reactor units. In the light of the Fukushima accident, of special interest are correlated events, whose modelling is proposed in the present study, in the form of some theoretical concepts, which lay the foundations for the PSA framework implementation. An applicative example is presented for illustrative purposes, since the analysis is carried out on the basis of generic numerical values assigned to an oversimplified model and results are achieved without any baseline comparison. Obviously the first step aimed at the process endorsement is the analysis of all available information in order to determine the level of applicability of the observed specific plant site events to the envisaged model and the statistical correlation analysis for event occurrence data that can be used as part of this process. Despite these drawbacks that actually do not qualify the achieved results, the present work represents an exploratory study aimed at resolving current open issues to be resolved in the PSA, like topics related to unanticipated scenarios: the combined external hazards of the earthquake and tsunami in Fukushima, external hazards causing internal events, such as seismic induced fire. These topics are to be resolved among the other ones as emerging from the

Multiwavelength follow-up observations of the tidal disruption event candidate 2XMMi J184725.1-631724

Science.gov (United States)

Lin, Dacheng; Strader, Jay; Carrasco, Eleazar R.; Godet, Olivier; Grupe, Dirk; Webb, Natalie A.; Barret, Didier; Irwin, Jimmy A.

2018-03-01

The ultrasoft X-ray flare 2XMMi J184725.1-631724 was serendipitously detected in two XMM-Newton observations in 2006 and 2007, with a peak luminosity of 6 × 1043 erg s-1. It was suggested to be a tidal disruption event (TDE) because its position is consistent with the centre of an inactive galaxy. It is the only known X-ray TDE candidate whose X-ray spectra showed evidence of a weak steep power-law component besides a dominant supersoft thermal disc. We have carried out multiwavelength follow-up observations of the event. Multiple X-ray monitorings show that the X-ray luminosity has decayed significantly after 2011. Especially, in our deep Chandra observation in 2013, we detected a very faint counterpart that supports the nuclear origin of 2XMMi J184725.1-631724 but had an X-ray flux a factor of ˜1000 lower than in the peak of the event. Compared with follow-up ultraviolet (UV) observations, we found that there might be some enhanced UV emission associated with the TDE in the first XMM-Newton observation. We also obtained a high-quality UV-optical spectrum with the Southern Astrophysical Research (SOAR) Telescope and put a very tight constraint on the persistent nuclear activity, with a persistent X-ray luminosity expected to be lower than the peak of the flare by a factor of >2700. Therefore, our multiwavelength follow-up observations strongly support the TDE explanation of the event.

Characterizing low-mass binaries from observation of long-timescale caustic-crossing gravitational microlensing events

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Shin, I.-G; Han, C.; Choi, J.-Y

2012-01-01

solution by follow-up radial-velocity observation. For both events, the caustic-crossing parts of the light curves, which are critical for determining the physical lens parameters, were resolved by high-cadence survey observations and thus it is expected that the number of microlensing binaries...

Cosmological event horizons, thermodynamics, and particle creation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gibbons, G.W.; Hawking, S.W.

1977-01-01

It is shown that the close connection between event horizons and thermodynamics which has been found in the case of black holes can be extended to cosmological models with a repulsive cosmological constant. An observer in these models will have an event horizon whose area can be interpreted as the entropy or lack of information of the observer about the regions which he cannot see. Associated with the event horizon is a surface gravity kappa which enters a classical ''first law of event horizons'' in a manner similar to that in which temperature occurs in the first law of thermodynamics. It is shown that this similarity is more than an analogy: An observer with a particle detector will indeed observe a background of thermal radiation coming apparently from the cosmological event horizon. If the observer absorbs some of this radiation, he will gain energy and entropy at the expense of the region beyond his ken and the event horizon will shrink. The derivation of these results involves abandoning the idea that particles should be defined in an observer-independent manner. They also suggest that one has to use something like the Everett-Wheeler interpretation of quantum mechanics because the back reaction and hence the spacetime metric itself appear to be observer-dependent, if one assumes, as seems reasonable, that the detection of a particle is accompanied by a change in the gravitational field

Micromechanics and statistics of slipping events in a granular seismic fault model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Arcangelis, L de [Department of Information Engineering and CNISM, Second University of Naples, Aversa (Italy); Ciamarra, M Pica [CNR-SPIN, Dipartimento di Scienze Fisiche, Universita di Napoli Federico II (Italy); Lippiello, E; Godano, C, E-mail: dearcangelis@na.infn.it [Department of Environmental Sciences and CNISM, Second University of Naples, Caserta (Italy)

2011-09-15

The stick-slip is investigated in a seismic fault model made of a confined granular system under shear stress via three dimensional Molecular Dynamics simulations. We study the statistics of slipping events and, in particular, the dependence of the distribution on model parameters. The distribution consistently exhibits two regimes: an initial power law and a bump at large slips. The initial power law decay is in agreement with the the Gutenberg-Richter law characterizing real seismic occurrence. The exponent of the initial regime is quite independent of model parameters and its value is in agreement with experimental results. Conversely, the position of the bump is solely controlled by the ratio of the drive elastic constant and the system size. Large slips also become less probable in absence of fault gouge and tend to disappear for stiff drives. A two-time force-force correlation function, and a susceptibility related to the system response to pressure changes, characterize the micromechanics of slipping events. The correlation function unveils the micromechanical changes occurring both during microslips and slips. The mechanical susceptibility encodes the magnitude of the incoming microslip. Numerical results for the cellular-automaton version of the spring block model confirm the parameter dependence observed for size distribution in the granular model.

Modeling and evaluation of urban pollution events of atmospheric heavy metals from a large Cu-smelter.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Bing; Stein, Ariel F; Castell, Nuria; Gonzalez-Castanedo, Yolanda; Sanchez de la Campa, A M; de la Rosa, J D

2016-01-01

Metal smelting and processing are highly polluting activities that have a strong influence on the levels of heavy metals in air, soil, and crops. We employ an atmospheric transport and dispersion model to predict the pollution levels originated from the second largest Cu-smelter in Europe. The model predicts that the concentrations of copper (Cu), zinc (Zn), and arsenic (As) in an urban area close to the Cu-smelter can reach 170, 70, and 30 ng m−3, respectively. The model captures all the observed urban pollution events, but the magnitude of the elemental concentrations is predicted to be lower than that of the observed values; ~300, ~500, and ~100 ng m−3 for Cu, Zn, and As, respectively. The comparison between model and observations showed an average correlation coefficient of 0.62 ± 0.13. The simulation shows that the transport of heavy metals reaches a peak in the afternoon over the urban area. The under-prediction in the peak is explained by the simulated stronger winds compared with monitoring data. The stronger simulated winds enhance the transport and dispersion of heavy metals to the regional area, diminishing the impact of pollution events in the urban area. This model, driven by high resolution meteorology (2 km in horizontal), predicts the hourly-interval evolutions of atmospheric heavy metal pollutions in the close by urban area of industrial hotspot.

Forward modeling transient brightenings and microflares around an active region observed with Hi-C

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kobelski, Adam R. [Now at National Radio Astronomy Observatory, P.O. Box 2, Green Bank, WV 24944 (United States); McKenzie, David E., E-mail: kobelski@solar.physics.montana.edu [Department of Physics, P.O. Box 173840, Montana State University, Bozeman, MT 59717-3840 (United States)

2014-10-20

Small-scale flare-like brightenings around active regions are among the smallest and most fundamental of energetic transient events in the corona, providing a testbed for models of heating and active region dynamics. In a previous study, we modeled a large collection of these microflares observed with Hinode/X-Ray Telescope (XRT) using EBTEL and found that they required multiple heating events, but could not distinguish between multiple heating events on a single strand, or multiple strands each experiencing a single heating event. We present here a similar study, but with extreme-ultraviolet data of Active Region 11520 from the High Resolution Coronal Imager (Hi-C) sounding rocket. Hi-C provides an order of magnitude improvement to the spatial resolution of XRT, and a cooler temperature sensitivity, which combine to provide significant improvements to our ability to detect and model microflare activity around active regions. We have found that at the spatial resolution of Hi-C (≈0.''3), the events occur much more frequently than expected (57 events detected, only 1 or 2 expected), and are most likely made from strands of the order of 100 km wide, each of which is impulsively heated with multiple heating events. These findings tend to support bursty reconnection as the cause of the energy release responsible for the brightenings.

Modelling shear wave splitting observations from Wellington, New Zealand

Science.gov (United States)

Marson-Pidgeon, Katrina; Savage, Martha K.

2004-05-01

Frequency-dependent anisotropy was previously observed at the permanent broad-band station SNZO, South Karori, Wellington, New Zealand. This has important implications for the interpretation of measurements in other subduction zones and hence for our understanding of mantle flow. This motivated us to make further splitting measurements using events recorded since the previous study and to develop a new modelling technique. Thus, in this study we have made 67 high-quality shear wave splitting measurements using events recorded at the SNZO station spanning a 10-yr period. This station is the only one operating in New Zealand for longer than 2 yr. Using a combination of teleseismic SKS and S phases and regional ScS phases provides good azimuthal coverage, allowing us to undertake detailed modelling. The splitting measurements indicate that in addition to the frequency dependence observed previously at this station, there are also variations with propagation and initial polarization directions. The fast polarization directions range between 2° and 103°, and the delay times range between 0.75 s and 3.05 s. These ranges are much larger than observed previously at SNZO or elsewhere in New Zealand. Because of the observed frequency dependence we measure the dominant frequency of the phase used to make the splitting measurement, and take this into account in the modelling. We fit the fast polarization directions fairly well with a two-layer anisotropic model with horizontal axes of symmetry. However, such a model does not fit the delay times or explain the frequency dependence. We have developed a new inversion method which allows for an inclined axis of symmetry in each of the two layers. However, applying this method to SNZO does not significantly improve the fit over a two-layer model with horizontal symmetry axes. We are therefore unable to explain the frequency dependence or large variation in delay time values with multiple horizontal layers of anisotropy, even

3D Evolution of a Filament Disappearance Event Observed by STEREO

Science.gov (United States)

Gosain, S.; Schmieder, B.; Venkatakrishnan, P.; Chandra, R.; Artzner, G.

2009-10-01

A filament disappearance event was observed on 22 May 2008 during our recent campaign JOP 178. The filament, situated in the Southern Hemisphere, showed sinistral chirality consistent with the hemispheric rule. The event was well observed by several observatories, in particular by THEMIS. One day, before the disappearance, Hα observations showed up- and down-flows in adjacent locations along the filament, which suggest plasma motions along twisted flux rope. THEMIS and GONG observations show shearing photospheric motions leading to magnetic flux canceling around barbs. STEREO A, B spacecraft with separation angle 52.4°, showed quite different views of this untwisting flux rope in He ii 304 Å images. Here, we reconstruct the three-dimensional geometry of the filament during its eruption phase using STEREO EUV He ii 304 Å images and find that the filament was highly inclined to the solar normal. The He ii 304 Å movies show individual threads, which oscillate and rise to an altitude of about 120 Mm with apparent velocities of about 100 km s-1 during the rapid evolution phase. Finally, as the flux rope expands into the corona, the filament disappears by becoming optically thin to undetectable levels. No CME was detected by STEREO, only a faint CME was recorded by LASCO at the beginning of the disappearance phase at 02:00 UT, which could be due to partial filament eruption. Further, STEREO Fe xii 195 Å images showed bright loops beneath the filament prior to the disappearance phase, suggesting magnetic reconnection below the flux rope.

Observation of events with a large rapidity gap in deep inelastic scattering at HERA

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Derrick, M.; Krakauer, D.; Magill, S.

1993-07-01

In deep inelastic, neutral current scattering of electrons and protons at √s=296 GeV, we observe in the ZEUS detector events with a large rapidity gap in the hadronic final state. They occur in the region of small Bjorken x and are observed up to Q 2 of 100 GeV 2 . They account for about 5% of the events with Q 2 ≥10 GeV 2 . Their general properties are inconsistent with the dominant mechanism of deep inelastic scattering, where color is transferred between the scattered quark and the proton remnant, and suggest that the underlying production mechanism is the diffractive dissociation of the virtual photon. (orig.)

ISEE/IMP Observations of simultaneous upstream ion events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mitchel, D.G.; Roelof, E.C.; Sanderson, T.R.; Reinhard, R.; Wenzel, K.

1983-01-01

Propagation of upstream energetic (50--200 keV) ions is analyzed in sixteen events observed simulataneously by solid state detectors on ISEE 3 at approx.200 R/sub E/ and on IMP 8 at approx.35 R/sub E/ from the earth. Conclusions are based on comparisons of the pitch angle distributions observed at the two spacecraft and transformed into the solar wind frame. They are beamlike at ISEE 3 and are confined to the outward hemisphere. When IMP 8 is furtherest from the bow shock, they are also usually beamlike, or hemispheric. However, when IMP 8 is closer to the bow shock, pancakelike distributions are observed. This systematic variation in the IMP 8 pitch angle distributions delimits a scattering region l< or approx. =14 R/sub E/ upstream of the earth's bow shock (l measured along the interplanetary magnetic field) that dominates ion propagation, influences the global distribution of fluxes in the foreshock, and may play a role in acceleration of the ions. When IMP 8 is beyond lapprox.15 R/sub E/, the propagation appears to be essentially scatter-free between IMP 8 and ISEE 3; this is deduced from the absence of earthward fluxes at IMP 8 as well as the tendency for the spin-averaged fluxes to be comparable at the two spacecraft

Analyses of Observed and Anticipated Changes in Extreme Climate Events in the Northwest Himalaya

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dharmaveer Singh

2016-02-01

Full Text Available In this study, past (1970-2005 as well as future long term (2011-2099 trends in various extreme events of temperature and precipitation have been investigated over selected hydro-meteorological stations in the Sutlej river basin. The ensembles of two Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 models: third generation Canadian Coupled Global Climate Model and Hadley Centre Coupled Model have been used for simulation of future daily time series of temperature (maximum and minimum and precipitation under A2 emission scenario. Large scale atmospheric variables of both models and National Centre for Environmental Prediction/National Centre for Atmospheric Research reanalysis data sets have been downscaled using statistical downscaling technique at individual stations. A total number of 25 extreme indices of temperature (14 and precipitation (11 as specified by the Expert Team of the World Meteorological Organization and Climate Variability and Predictability are derived for the past and future periods. Trends in extreme indices are detected over time using the modified Mann-Kendall test method. The stations which have shown either decrease or no change in hot extreme events (i.e., maximum TMax, warm days, warm nights, maximum TMin, tropical nights, summer days and warm spell duration indicators for 1970–2005 and increase in cold extreme events (cool days, cool nights, frost days and cold spell duration indicators are predicted to increase and decrease respectively in the future. In addition, an increase in frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events is also predicted.

Construction and Quantification of the One Top model of the Fire Events PSA

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kang, Dae Il; Lee, Yoon Hwan; Han, Sang Hoon

2008-01-01

KAERI constructed the one top model of the fire events PSA for Ulchin Unit 3 and 4 by using the 'mapping technique'. The mapping technique was developed for the construction and quantification of external events PSA models with a one top model for an internal events PSA. With 'AIMS', the mapping technique can be implemented by the construction of mapping tables. The mapping tables include fire rooms, fire ignition frequency, related initiating events, fire transfer events, and the internal PSA basic events affected by a fire. The constructed one top fire PSA model is based on previously conducted fire PSA results for Ulchin Unit 3 and 4. In this paper, we introduce the construction procedure and quantification results of the one top model of the fire events PSA by using the mapping technique. As the one top model of the fire events PSA developed in this study is based on the previous study, we also introduce the previous fire PSA approach focused on quantification

Event-based rainfall-runoff modelling of the Kelantan River Basin

Science.gov (United States)

Basarudin, Z.; Adnan, N. A.; Latif, A. R. A.; Tahir, W.; Syafiqah, N.

2014-02-01

Flood is one of the most common natural disasters in Malaysia. According to hydrologists there are many causes that contribute to flood events. The two most dominant factors are the meteorology factor (i.e climate change) and change in land use. These two factors contributed to floods in recent decade especially in the monsoonal catchment such as Malaysia. This paper intends to quantify the influence of rainfall during extreme rainfall events on the hydrological model in the Kelantan River catchment. Therefore, two dynamic inputs were used in the study: rainfall and river discharge. The extreme flood events in 2008 and 2004 were compared based on rainfall data for both years. The events were modeled via a semi-distributed HEC-HMS hydrological model. Land use change was not incorporated in the study because the study only tries to quantify rainfall changes during these two events to simulate the discharge and runoff value. Therefore, the land use data representing the year 2004 were used as inputs in the 2008 runoff model. The study managed to demonstrate that rainfall change has a significant impact to determine the peak discharge and runoff depth for the study area.

Event-based rainfall-runoff modelling of the Kelantan River Basin

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Basarudin, Z; Adnan, N A; Latif, A R A; Syafiqah, N; Tahir, W

2014-01-01

Flood is one of the most common natural disasters in Malaysia. According to hydrologists there are many causes that contribute to flood events. The two most dominant factors are the meteorology factor (i.e climate change) and change in land use. These two factors contributed to floods in recent decade especially in the monsoonal catchment such as Malaysia. This paper intends to quantify the influence of rainfall during extreme rainfall events on the hydrological model in the Kelantan River catchment. Therefore, two dynamic inputs were used in the study: rainfall and river discharge. The extreme flood events in 2008 and 2004 were compared based on rainfall data for both years. The events were modeled via a semi-distributed HEC-HMS hydrological model. Land use change was not incorporated in the study because the study only tries to quantify rainfall changes during these two events to simulate the discharge and runoff value. Therefore, the land use data representing the year 2004 were used as inputs in the 2008 runoff model. The study managed to demonstrate that rainfall change has a significant impact to determine the peak discharge and runoff depth for the study area

Investigating the impact of climate change on crop phenological events in Europe with a phenology model

Science.gov (United States)

Ma, Shaoxiu; Churkina, Galina; Trusilova, Kristina

2012-07-01

Predicting regional and global carbon and water dynamics requires a realistic representation of vegetation phenology. Vegetation models including cropland models exist (e.g. LPJmL, Daycent, SIBcrop, ORCHIDEE-STICS, PIXGRO) but they have various limitations in predicting cropland phenological events and their responses to climate change. Here, we investigate how leaf onset and offset days of major European croplands responded to changes in climate from 1971 to 2000 using a newly developed phenological model, which solely relies on climate data. Net ecosystem exchange (NEE) data measured with eddy covariance technique at seven sites in Europe were used to adjust model parameters for wheat, barley, and rapeseed. Observational data from the International Phenology Gardens were used to corroborate modeled phenological responses to changes in climate. Enhanced vegetation index (EVI) and a crop calendar were explored as alternative predictors of leaf onset and harvest days, respectively, over a large spatial scale. In each spatial model simulation, we assumed that all European croplands were covered by only one crop type. Given this assumption, the model estimated that the leaf onset days for wheat, barley, and rapeseed in Germany advanced by 1.6, 3.4, and 3.4 days per decade, respectively, during 1961-2000. The majority of European croplands (71.4%) had an advanced mean leaf onset day for wheat, barley, and rapeseed (7.0% significant), whereas 28.6% of European croplands had a delayed leaf onset day (0.9% significant) during 1971-2000. The trend of advanced onset days estimated by the model is similar to observations from the International Phenology Gardens in Europe. The developed phenological model can be integrated into a large-scale ecosystem model to simulate the dynamics of phenological events at different temporal and spatial scales. Crop calendars and enhanced vegetation index have substantial uncertainties in predicting phenological events of croplands. Caution

Event-Entity-Relationship Modeling in Data Warehouse Environments

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bækgaard, Lars

We use the event-entity-relationship model (EVER) to illustrate the use of entity-based modeling languages for conceptual schema design in data warehouse environments. EVER is a general-purpose information modeling language that supports the specification of both general schema structures and multi...

A simple ideal magnetohydrodynamical model of vertical disruption events in tokamaks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fitzpatrick, R.

2009-01-01

A simple model of axisymmetric vertical disruption events (VDEs) in tokamaks is presented in which the halo current force exerted on the vacuum vessel is calculated directly from linear, marginally stable, ideal-magnetohydrodynamical (MHD) stability analysis. The basic premise of the model is that the halo current force modifies pressure balance at the edge of the plasma, and therefore also modifies ideal-MHD plasma stability. In order to prevent the ideal vertical instability, responsible for the VDE, from growing on the very short Alfven time scale, the halo current force must adjust itself such that the instability is rendered marginally stable. The model predicts halo currents which are similar in magnitude to those observed experimentally. An approximate nonaxisymmetric version of the model is developed in order to calculate the toroidal peaking factor for the halo current force.

Observations of Lake-Breeze Events During the Toronto 2015 Pan-American Games

Science.gov (United States)

Mariani, Zen; Dehghan, Armin; Joe, Paul; Sills, David

2018-01-01

Enhanced meteorological observations were made during the 2015 Pan and Parapan American Games in Toronto in order to measure the vertical and horizontal structure of lake-breeze events. Two scanning Doppler lidars (one fixed and one mobile), a C-band radar, and a network including 53 surface meteorological stations (mesonet) provided pressure, temperature, humidity, and wind speed and direction measurements over Lake Ontario and urban areas. These observations captured the full evolution (prior, during, and after) of 27 lake-breeze events (73% of observation days) in order to characterize the convective and dynamic processes driving lake breezes at the local scale and mesoscale. The dominant signal of a passing lake-breeze front (LBF) was an increase in dew-point temperature of 2.3 ± 0.3°C, coinciding with a 180° shift in wind direction and a decrease in air temperature of 2.1 ± 0.2°C. Doppler lidar observations over the lake detected lake breezes 1 hour (on average) before detection by radar and mesonet. On days with the synoptic flow in the offshore direction, the lidars observed wedge-shaped LBFs with shallow depths, which inhibited the radar's ability to detect the lake breeze. The LBF's ground speed and inland penetration distance were found to be well-correlated (r = 0.78), with larger inland penetration distances occurring on days with non-opposing (non-offshore) synoptic flow. The observed enhanced vertical motion ({>} 1 m s^{-1}) at the LBF, observed by the lidar on 54% of lake-breeze days, was greater (at times {>} 2.5 m s^{-1}) than that observed in previous studies and longer-lasting over the lake than over land. The weaker and less pronounced lake-breeze structure over land is illustrated in two case studies highlighting the lifetime of the lake-breeze circulation and the impact of propagation distance on lake-breeze intensity.

Observations of hybrid seismic events at Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat: July 1995 to September 1996

Science.gov (United States)

White, R.A.; Miller, A.D.; Lynch, L.; Power, J.

1998-01-01

Swarms of small repetitive events with similar waveforms and magnitudes are often observed during the emplacement of lava domes. Over 300 000 such events were recorded in association with the emplacement of the lava dome at Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat, from August 1995 through August 1996. These events originated Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat, from August 1995 through August 1996. These events originated <2-3 km deep. They exhibited energy ranging over approximately 1.5-4.5 Hz and were broader band than typical long-period events. We term the events `hybrid' between long-period and volcano-tectonic. The events were more impulsive and broader band prior to, compared with during and after, periods of inferred increased magma flux rate. Individual swarms contained up to 10,000 events often exhibiting very similar magnitudes and waveforms throughout the swarm. Swarms lasted hours to weeks, during which inter-event intervals generally increased, then decreased, often several times. Long-duration swarms began about every two months starting in late September 1995. We speculate that the events were produced as the magma column degassed into adjacent cracks.

4-D modeling of CME expansion and EUV dimming observed with STEREO/EUVI

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. J. Aschwanden

2009-08-01

Full Text Available This is the first attempt to model the kinematics of a CME launch and the resulting EUV dimming quantitatively with a self-consistent model. Our 4-D-model assumes self-similar expansion of a spherical CME geometry that consists of a CME front with density compression and a cavity with density rarefaction, satisfying mass conservation of the total CME and swept-up corona. The model contains 14 free parameters and is fitted to the 25 March 2008 CME event observed with STEREO/A and B. Our model is able to reproduce the observed CME expansion and related EUV dimming during the initial phase from 18:30 UT to 19:00 UT. The CME kinematics can be characterized by a constant acceleration (i.e., a constant magnetic driving force. While the observations of EUVI/A are consistent with a spherical bubble geometry, we detect significant asymmetries and density inhomogeneities with EUVI/B. This new forward-modeling method demonstrates how the observed EUV dimming can be used to model physical parameters of the CME source region, the CME geometry, and CME kinematics.

Wavelet spectra of JACEE events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Suzuki, Naomichi; Biyajima, Minoru; Ohsawa, Akinori.

1995-01-01

Pseudo-rapidity distributions of two high multiplicity events Ca-C and Si-AgBr observed by the JACEE are analyzed by a wavelet transform. Wavelet spectra of those events are calculated and compared with the simulation calculations. The wavelet spectrum of the Ca-C event somewhat resembles that simulated with the uniform random numbers. That of Si-AgBr event, however, is not reproduced by simulation calculations with Poisson random numbers, uniform random numbers, or a p-model. (author)

Five-quark model with flavour-changing neutral current and dimuon events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, J.E.; Kang, K.

1976-01-01

The recent dimuon data seem to suggest either the necessity of flavor-changing hadronic neutral current or proliferation of quarks beyond charm or both. It is shown how a five-quark model based on simple gauge group SU(2) x U(1) x U(1)' can generate the flavor-changing, in particular the needed charm-changing, neutral current in a natural fashion. A substantial D 0 --D -0 mixing can be obtained to account for the ''wrong-sign'' dimuons observed in ν/sub μ/-induced reactions. Because of the role of the extra neutral boson in this model, the flavor-changing neutral current is decoupled from leptonic sectors, thus suppressing the trimuon events as experiments indicate thus far

Review of Wind Energy Forecasting Methods for Modeling Ramping Events

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wharton, S; Lundquist, J K; Marjanovic, N; Williams, J L; Rhodes, M; Chow, T K; Maxwell, R

2011-03-28

Tall onshore wind turbines, with hub heights between 80 m and 100 m, can extract large amounts of energy from the atmosphere since they generally encounter higher wind speeds, but they face challenges given the complexity of boundary layer flows. This complexity of the lowest layers of the atmosphere, where wind turbines reside, has made conventional modeling efforts less than ideal. To meet the nation's goal of increasing wind power into the U.S. electrical grid, the accuracy of wind power forecasts must be improved. In this report, the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, in collaboration with the University of Colorado at Boulder, University of California at Berkeley, and Colorado School of Mines, evaluates innovative approaches to forecasting sudden changes in wind speed or 'ramping events' at an onshore, multimegawatt wind farm. The forecast simulations are compared to observations of wind speed and direction from tall meteorological towers and a remote-sensing Sound Detection and Ranging (SODAR) instrument. Ramping events, i.e., sudden increases or decreases in wind speed and hence, power generated by a turbine, are especially problematic for wind farm operators. Sudden changes in wind speed or direction can lead to large power generation differences across a wind farm and are very difficult to predict with current forecasting tools. Here, we quantify the ability of three models, mesoscale WRF, WRF-LES, and PF.WRF, which vary in sophistication and required user expertise, to predict three ramping events at a North American wind farm.

Boosting joint models for longitudinal and time-to-event data

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Waldmann, Elisabeth; Taylor-Robinson, David; Klein, Nadja

2017-01-01

Joint models for longitudinal and time-to-event data have gained a lot of attention in the last few years as they are a helpful technique clinical studies where longitudinal outcomes are recorded alongside event times. Those two processes are often linked and the two outcomes should thus be model...

Real-time synchrotron x-ray observations of equiaxed solidification of aluminium alloys and implications for modelling

Science.gov (United States)

Prasad, A.; Liotti, E.; McDonald, S. D.; Nogita, K.; Yasuda, H.; Grant, P. S.; StJohn, D. H.

2015-06-01

Recently, in-situ observations were carried out by synchrotron X-ray radiography to observe the nucleation and growth in Al alloys during solidification. The nucleation and grain formation of a range of Al-Si and Al-Cu binary alloys were studied. When grain refiner was added to the alloys, the location of the nucleation events was readily observed. Once nucleation began it continued to occur in a wave of events with the movement of the temperature gradient across the field of view due to cooling. Other features observed were the settling of the primary phase grains in the Al-Si alloys and floating in the Al-Cu alloys, the effects of convection with marked fluctuation of the growth rate of the solid-liquid interface in the Al-Si alloys, and an absence of fragmentation. The microstructures are typical of those produced in the equiaxed zone of actual castings. These observations are compared with predictions arising from the Interdependence model. The results from this comparison have implications for further refinement of the model and simulation and modelling approaches in general. These implications will be discussed.

Catalogue of {>} 55 MeV Wide-longitude Solar Proton Events Observed by SOHO, ACE, and the STEREOs at {≈} 1 AU During 2009 - 2016

Science.gov (United States)

Paassilta, Miikka; Papaioannou, Athanasios; Dresing, Nina; Vainio, Rami; Valtonen, Eino; Heber, Bernd

2018-04-01

Based on energetic particle observations made at {≈} 1 AU, we present a catalogue of 46 wide-longitude ({>} 45°) solar energetic particle (SEP) events detected at multiple locations during 2009 - 2016. The particle kinetic energies of interest were chosen as {>} 55 MeV for protons and 0.18 - 0.31 MeV for electrons. We make use of proton data from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory/Energetic and Relativistic Nuclei and Electron Experiment (SOHO/ERNE) and the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory/High Energy Telescopes (STEREO/HET), together with electron data from the Advanced Composition Explorer/Electron, Proton, and Alpha Monitor (ACE/EPAM) and the STEREO/ Solar Electron and Proton Telescopes (SEPT). We consider soft X-ray data from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) and coronal mass ejection (CME) observations made with the SOHO/ Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO) and STEREO/ Coronagraphs 1 and 2 (COR1, COR2) to establish the probable associations between SEP events and the related solar phenomena. Event onset times and peak intensities are determined; velocity dispersion analysis (VDA) and time-shifting analysis (TSA) are performed for protons; TSA is performed for electrons. In our event sample, there is a tendency for the highest peak intensities to occur when the observer is magnetically connected to solar regions west of the flare. Our estimates for the mean event width, derived as the standard deviation of a Gaussian curve modelling the SEP intensities (protons {≈} 44°, electrons {≈} 50°), largely agree with previous results for lower-energy SEPs. SEP release times with respect to event flares, as well as the event rise times, show no simple dependence on the observer's connection angle, suggesting that the source region extent and dominant particle acceleration and transport mechanisms are important in defining these characteristics of an event. There is no marked difference between the speed

Observation of the Higgs particle in gamma-gamma events and search for the Higgs particle in Z-gamma events at ATLAS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liu, K.

2014-01-01

This thesis focuses on the searches for the Higgs boson in events with photons in the final states, using the full proton-proton collision data collected by ATLAS at √(s)=7 and 8 TeV in 2011 and 2012. Higgs boson decays to photon pairs or to a photon and a Z boson decaying to di-electrons or di-muons are investigated. The event selection, the main backgrounds, the signal properties, and the statistical discrimination between the signal and background in data and the interpretation of the results in terms of a Standard Model Higgs boson are discussed. In the H → γγ channel a clear excess over the background is seen at a mass of m H =[126.8±0.2(stat)±0.7(syst)] GeV, with a local significance of 7.4 σ. In the rare decay channel H → Zγ no evidence of excess over the background is observed in the mass range 120-150 GeV, and, for a Higgs boson mass near the one obtained from the combined mass measurement in the γγ and 4-lepton final states, m H =125.5 GeV, an upper limit of 11 times the Standard Model prediction, at 95% confidence level, is set on the production cross section times the H → Zγ cross section. One of the most important ingredient for these measurements is the efficient reconstruction and identification of photons, and a precise knowledge of the trigger and identification performance. A significant part of the document is thus devoted to the photon performance optimisation and measurement activities that I carried on in the past three years. (author)

Discrete Event Simulation for Decision Modeling in Health Care: Lessons from Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Screening

Science.gov (United States)

Jones, Edmund; Masconi, Katya L.; Sweeting, Michael J.; Thompson, Simon G.; Powell, Janet T.

2018-01-01

Markov models are often used to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of new healthcare interventions but they are sometimes not flexible enough to allow accurate modeling or investigation of alternative scenarios and policies. A Markov model previously demonstrated that a one-off invitation to screening for abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) for men aged 65 y in the UK and subsequent follow-up of identified AAAs was likely to be highly cost-effective at thresholds commonly adopted in the UK (£20,000 to £30,000 per quality adjusted life-year). However, new evidence has emerged and the decision problem has evolved to include exploration of the circumstances under which AAA screening may be cost-effective, which the Markov model is not easily able to address. A new model to handle this more complex decision problem was needed, and the case of AAA screening thus provides an illustration of the relative merits of Markov models and discrete event simulation (DES) models. An individual-level DES model was built using the R programming language to reflect possible events and pathways of individuals invited to screening v. those not invited. The model was validated against key events and cost-effectiveness, as observed in a large, randomized trial. Different screening protocol scenarios were investigated to demonstrate the flexibility of the DES. The case of AAA screening highlights the benefits of DES, particularly in the context of screening studies.

Energy time dispersion of a new class of magnetospheric ion events observed near the Earth's bow shock

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

G. C. Anagnostopoulos

2000-01-01

Full Text Available We have analyzed high time resolution (\\geq6 s data during the onset and the decay phase of several energetic (\\geq35 keV ion events observed near the Earth's bow shock by the CCE/AMPTE and IMP-7/8 spacecraft, during times of intense substorm/geomagnetic activity. We found that forward energy dispersion at the onset of events (earlier increase of middle energy ions and/or a delayed fall of the middle energy ion fluxes at the end of events are often evident in high time resolution data. The energy spectra at the onset and the decay of this kind of events show a characteristic hump at middle (50-120 keV energies and the angular distributions display either anisotropic or broad forms. The time scale of energy dispersion in the ion events examined was found to range from several seconds to \\sim1 h depending on the ion energies compared and on the rate of variation of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF direction. Several canditate processes are discussed to explain the observations and it is suggested that a rigidity dependent transport process of magnetospheric particles within the magnetosheath is most probably responsible for the detection of this new type of near bow shock magnetospheric ion events. The new class of ion events was observed within both the magnetosheath and the upstream region.Key words. Interplanetary physics (energetic particles; planetary bow shocks

Predictive event modelling in multicenter clinical trials with waiting time to response.

Science.gov (United States)

Anisimov, Vladimir V

2011-01-01

A new analytic statistical technique for predictive event modeling in ongoing multicenter clinical trials with waiting time to response is developed. It allows for the predictive mean and predictive bounds for the number of events to be constructed over time, accounting for the newly recruited patients and patients already at risk in the trial, and for different recruitment scenarios. For modeling patient recruitment, an advanced Poisson-gamma model is used, which accounts for the variation in recruitment over time, the variation in recruitment rates between different centers and the opening or closing of some centers in the future. A few models for event appearance allowing for 'recurrence', 'death' and 'lost-to-follow-up' events and using finite Markov chains in continuous time are considered. To predict the number of future events over time for an ongoing trial at some interim time, the parameters of the recruitment and event models are estimated using current data and then the predictive recruitment rates in each center are adjusted using individual data and Bayesian re-estimation. For a typical scenario (continue to recruit during some time interval, then stop recruitment and wait until a particular number of events happens), the closed-form expressions for the predictive mean and predictive bounds of the number of events at any future time point are derived under the assumptions of Markovian behavior of the event progression. The technique is efficiently applied to modeling different scenarios for some ongoing oncology trials. Case studies are considered. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A regional model simulation of the 1991 severe precipitation event over the Yangtze-Huai River Valley. Part 2: Model bias

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gong, W.; Wang, W.C.

2000-01-01

This is the second part of a study investigating the 1991 severe precipitation event over the Uangtze-Huai River valley (YHRV) in China using both observations and regional model simulations. While Part 1 reported on the Mei-yu front and its association with large-scale circulation, this study documents the biases associated with the treatment of the lateral boundary in the regional model. Two aspects of the biases were studied: the driving field, which provides large-scale boundary forcing, and the coupling scheme, which specified how the forcing is adopted by the model. The former bias is defined as model uncertainty because it is not related to the model itself, while the latter bias (as well as those biases attributed to other sources) is referred to as model error. These two aspects were examined by analyzing the regional model simulations of the 1991 summer severe precipitation event over YHRV using different driving fields (ECMWF-TOGA objective analysis, ECMWF reanalysis, and NCEP-NCAR reanalysis) and coupling scheme (distribution function of the nudging coefficient and width of the buffer zone). Spectral analysis was also used to study the frequency distribution of the bias.

A Climatology of Dust-Emission Events over North Africa Based on 27 Years of Surface Observations

Science.gov (United States)

Cowie, S.; Knippertz, P.; Schepanski, K.

2012-04-01

The huge quantity of mineral dust emitted annually from North Africa makes this area crucial to the global dust cycle. Once in the atmosphere, dust aerosols have a significant impact on the global radiation budget, clouds, the carbon cycle and can even act as a fertilizer to rain forests in South America. Current model estimates of dust production from North Africa are uncertain. At the heart of this problem is insufficient understanding of key dust emitting processes such as haboobs (cold pools generated through evaporation of convective precipitation), low-level jets (LLJs), and dry convection (dust devils and dust plumes). Scarce observations in this region, in particular in the Sahara, make model evaluation difficult. This work uses long-term surface observations from the MIDAS data set (~120 stations in the arid part of North Africa) to explore the diurnal, seasonal, decadal and geographical variations in dust emission events and their associated wind thresholds. The threshold values are determined from probability density functions of observed 10-minute anemomenter wind speeds. Emission events are defined using the present weather codes (WW) of SYNOP reports. These codes represent events of smaller intensity such as "Dust or sand raised by wind" to severe dust storms. During the 27-year study period (1984-2011) stations are required to have a minimum of 1000 dust observations to be included in the analysis. Dust emission frequency (DEF) is calculated for different time intervals (e.g. monthly, 3-hourly) taking into account the different number of measurements available at each station. North of 25°N a maximum during March-May is evident and relatively consistent over the whole North African region. Wind-speed thresholds for dust emission north of 25°N are higher than south of 25°N in the Sahel, where station-to-station variability is larger, and enhanced DEF activity during February-March is observed. The variability in this region is closely linked to the

Utilizing NASA Earth Observations to detect factors contributing to hypoxic events in the southern Gulf of Mexico

Science.gov (United States)

Chapman, R.; Johansen, A.; Mitchell, Å. R.; Caraballo Álvarez, I. O.; Taggart, M.; Smith, B.

2015-12-01

Monitoring and analyzing harmful algal blooms (HABs) and hypoxic events in the southern coastal areas of the Gulf of Mexico (GoM) is important for watershed management and mitigation of environmental degradation. This study uncovered trends and dynamic characteristics of chlorophyll-a (Chl) concentration, sea surface temperature (SST), colored dissolved organic matter index (CDOM), and photosynthetically available radiation (PAR); as evident in 8-day standard mapped image (SMI) products from the MODIS instrument on the Aqua platform from 2002-2015 using Clark Labs TerrSet Earth Trends Modeler (ETM). Predicted dissolved oxygen images were classified using a Multi-Layer Perceptron regression approach with in-situ data from the northern GoM. Additionally, sediment and nutrient loading values of the Grijalva-Usumacinta watershed were modeled using the ArcGIS Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Lastly, A Turbidity Index was generated using Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) scenes for 2014-2015. Results, tools, and products will assist local environmental and health authorities in revising water quality standards and mitigating the impacts of future HABs and hypoxic events in the region. This project uses NASA's earth observations as a viable alternative to studying a region with no in-situ data.

Fγ: A new observable for photon-hadron discrimination in hybrid air shower events

Science.gov (United States)

Niechciol, M.; Risse, M.; Ruehl, P.; Settimo, M.; Younk, P. W.; Yushkov, A.

2018-01-01

To search for ultra-high-energy photons in primary cosmic rays, air shower observables are needed that allow a good separation between primary photons and primary hadrons. We present a new observable, Fγ, which can be extracted from ground-array data in hybrid events, where simultaneous measurements of the longitudinal and the lateral shower profile are performed. The observable is based on a template fit to the lateral distribution measured by the ground array with the template taking into account the complementary information from the measurement of the longitudinal profile, i.e. the primary energy and the geometry of the shower. Fγ shows a very good photon-hadron separation, which is even superior to the separation given by the well-known Xmax observable (the atmospheric depth of the shower maximum). At energies around 1 EeV (10 EeV), Fγ provides a background rejection better than 97.8 % (99.9 %) at a signal efficiency of 50 %. Advantages of the observable Fγ are its technical stability with respect to irregularities in the ground array (i.e. missing or temporarily non-operating stations) and that it can be applied over the full energy range accessible to the air shower detector, down to its threshold energy. Furthermore, Fγ complements nicely to Xmax such that both observables can well be combined to achieve an even better discrimination power, exploiting the rich information available in hybrid events.

An Observation Capability Metadata Model for EO Sensor Discovery in Sensor Web Enablement Environments

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chuli Hu

2014-10-01

Full Text Available Accurate and fine-grained discovery by diverse Earth observation (EO sensors ensures a comprehensive response to collaborative observation-required emergency tasks. This discovery remains a challenge in an EO sensor web environment. In this study, we propose an EO sensor observation capability metadata model that reuses and extends the existing sensor observation-related metadata standards to enable the accurate and fine-grained discovery of EO sensors. The proposed model is composed of five sub-modules, namely, ObservationBreadth, ObservationDepth, ObservationFrequency, ObservationQuality and ObservationData. The model is applied to different types of EO sensors and is formalized by the Open Geospatial Consortium Sensor Model Language 1.0. The GeosensorQuery prototype retrieves the qualified EO sensors based on the provided geo-event. An actual application to flood emergency observation in the Yangtze River Basin in China is conducted, and the results indicate that sensor inquiry can accurately achieve fine-grained discovery of qualified EO sensors and obtain enriched observation capability information. In summary, the proposed model enables an efficient encoding system that ensures minimum unification to represent the observation capabilities of EO sensors. The model functions as a foundation for the efficient discovery of EO sensors. In addition, the definition and development of this proposed EO sensor observation capability metadata model is a helpful step in extending the Sensor Model Language (SensorML 2.0 Profile for the description of the observation capabilities of EO sensors.

Failure diagnosis using discrete event models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sampath, M.; Sengupta, R.; Lafortune, S.; Teneketzis, D.; Sinnamohideen, K.

1994-01-01

We propose a Discrete Event Systems (DES) approach to the failure diagnosis problem. We present a methodology for modeling physical systems in a DES framework. We discuss the notion of diagnosability and present the construction procedure of the diagnoser. Finally, we illustrate our approach using a Heating, Ventilation and Air Conditioning (HVAC) system

Grid Frequency Extreme Event Analysis and Modeling: Preprint

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Florita, Anthony R [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Clark, Kara [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Gevorgian, Vahan [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Folgueras, Maria [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Wenger, Erin [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

2017-11-01

Sudden losses of generation or load can lead to instantaneous changes in electric grid frequency and voltage. Extreme frequency events pose a major threat to grid stability. As renewable energy sources supply power to grids in increasing proportions, it becomes increasingly important to examine when and why extreme events occur to prevent destabilization of the grid. To better understand frequency events, including extrema, historic data were analyzed to fit probability distribution functions to various frequency metrics. Results showed that a standard Cauchy distribution fit the difference between the frequency nadir and prefault frequency (f_(C-A)) metric well, a standard Cauchy distribution fit the settling frequency (f_B) metric well, and a standard normal distribution fit the difference between the settling frequency and frequency nadir (f_(B-C)) metric very well. Results were inconclusive for the frequency nadir (f_C) metric, meaning it likely has a more complex distribution than those tested. This probabilistic modeling should facilitate more realistic modeling of grid faults.

A mathematical model for the occurrence of historical events

Science.gov (United States)

Ohnishi, Teruaki

2017-12-01

A mathematical model was proposed for the frequency distribution of historical inter-event time τ. A basic ingredient was constructed by assuming the significance of a newly occurring historical event depending on the magnitude of a preceding event, the decrease of its significance by oblivion during the successive events, and an independent Poisson process for the occurrence of the event. The frequency distribution of τ was derived by integrating the basic ingredient with respect to all social fields and to all stake holders. The function of such a distribution was revealed as the forms of an exponential type, a power law type or an exponential-with-a-tail type depending on the values of constants appearing in the ingredient. The validity of this model was studied by applying it to the two cases of Modern China and Northern Ireland Troubles, where the τ-distribution varies depending on the different countries interacting with China and on the different stage of history of the Troubles, respectively. This indicates that history is consisted from many components with such different types of τ-distribution, which are the similar situation to the cases of other general human activities.

Mercury fluxes over an Australian alpine grassland and observation of nocturnal atmospheric mercury depletion events

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

D. Howard

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Aerodynamic gradient measurements of the air–surface exchange of gaseous elemental mercury (GEM were undertaken over a 40 ha alpine grassland in Australia's Snowy Mountains region across a 3-week period during the late austral summer. Bi-directional GEM fluxes were observed throughout the study, with overall mean value of 0.2 ± 14.5 ng m−2 h−1 and mean nocturnal fluxes of −1.5 ± 7.8 ng m−2 h−1 compared to diurnal fluxes of 1.8 ± 18.6 ng m−2 h−1. Deposition velocities ranged from −2.2 to 2.9 cm s−1, whilst ambient GEM concentrations throughout the study were 0.59 ± 0.10 ng m−3. Cumulative GEM fluxes correlated well with 24 h running mean soil temperatures, and one precipitation event was shown to have a positive impact on diurnal emission fluxes. The underlying vegetation had largely senesced and showed little stomatal control on fluxes. Nocturnal atmospheric mercury depletion events (NAMDEs were observed concomitant with O3 depletion and dew formation under shallow, stable nocturnal boundary layers. A mass balance box model was able to reproduce ambient GEM concentration patterns during NAMDE and non-NAMDE nights without invoking chemical oxidation of GEM throughout the column, indicating a significant role of surface processes controlling deposition in these events. Surface deposition was enhanced under NAMDE nights, though uptake to dew likely represents less than one-fifth of this enhanced deposition. Instead, enhancement of the surface GEM gradient as a result of oxidation at the surface in the presence of dew is hypothesised to be responsible for a large portion of GEM depletion during these particular events. GEM emission pulses following nights with significant deposition provide evidence for the prompt recycling of 17 % of deposited mercury, with the remaining portion retained in surface sinks. The long-term impacts of any sinks are however likely to be minimal, as

Modelling the interaction between flooding events and economic growth

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. Grames

2015-06-01

Full Text Available Socio-hydrology describes the interaction between the socio-economy and water. Recent models analyze the interplay of community risk-coping culture, flooding damage and economic growth (Di Baldassarre et al., 2013; Viglione et al., 2014. These models descriptively explain the feedbacks between socio-economic development and natural disasters like floods. Contrary to these descriptive models, our approach develops an optimization model, where the intertemporal decision of an economic agent interacts with the hydrological system. In order to build this first economic growth model describing the interaction between the consumption and investment decisions of an economic agent and the occurrence of flooding events, we transform an existing descriptive stochastic model into an optimal deterministic model. The intermediate step is to formulate and simulate a descriptive deterministic model. We develop a periodic water function to approximate the former discrete stochastic time series of rainfall events. Due to the non-autonomous exogenous periodic rainfall function the long-term path of consumption and investment will be periodic.

Event Horizon Telescope observations as probes for quantum structure of astrophysical black holes

Science.gov (United States)

Giddings, Steven B.; Psaltis, Dimitrios

2018-04-01

The need for a consistent quantum evolution for black holes has led to proposals that their semiclassical description is modified not just near the singularity, but at horizon or larger scales. If such modifications extend beyond the horizon, they influence regions accessible to distant observation. Natural candidates for these modifications behave like metric fluctuations, with characteristic length scales and timescales set by the horizon radius. We investigate the possibility of using the Event Horizon Telescope to observe these effects, if they have a strength sufficient to make quantum evolution consistent with unitarity, without introducing new scales. We find that such quantum fluctuations can introduce a strong time dependence for the shape and size of the shadow that a black hole casts on its surrounding emission. For the black hole in the center of the Milky Way, detecting the rapid time variability of its shadow will require nonimaging timing techniques. However, for the much larger black hole in the center of the M87 galaxy, a variable black-hole shadow, if present with these parameters, would be readily observable in the individual snapshots that will be obtained by the Event Horizon Telescope.

Observation of seasonal variation of atmospheric multiple-muon events in the MINOS near and far detectors

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Adamson, P. [Fermi National Accelerator Lab. (FNAL), Batavia, IL (United States). et al.

2015-06-09

We report the first observation of seasonal modulations in the rates of cosmic ray multiple-muon events at two underground sites, the MINOS Near Detector with an overburden of 225 mwe, and the MINOS Far Detector site at 2100 mwe. Thus, at the deeper site, multiple-muon events with muons separated by more than 8 m exhibit a seasonal rate that peaks during the summer, similar to that of single-muon events. In contrast and unexpectedly, the rate of multiple-muon events with muons separated by less than 5–8 m, and the rate of multiple-muon events in the smaller, shallower Near Detector, exhibit a seasonal rate modulation that peaks in the winter.

Space Weather at Mars: MAVEN and MSL/RAD Observations of CME and SEP Events

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, C. O.; Ehresmann, B.; Lillis, R. J.; Dunn, P.; Rahmati, A.; Larson, D. E.; Guo, J.; Zeitlin, C.; Luhmann, J. G.; Halekas, J. S.; Espley, J. R.; Thiemann, E.; Hassler, D.

2017-12-01

While MAVEN have been observing the space weather conditions driven by ICMEs and SEPs in orbit around Mars, MSL/RAD have been measuring the surface radiation environment due to E > 150 MeV/nuc SEPs and the higher-energy galactic cosmic rays. The suite of MAVEN instruments measuring the particles (SEP), plasma (SWIA) and fields (MAG) information provides detailed local space weather information regarding the solar activity-related fluctuations in the measured surface dose rates. At the same time, the related enhancements in the RAD surface dose rates indicate the degree to which the SEPs affect the lower atmosphere and surface. We will present an overview of the MAVEN observations together with the MSL/RAD measurements and focus our discussion on a number of space weather events driven by CMEs and SEPs. During the March 2015 solar storm period, a succession of CMEs produced intense SEP proton fluxes that were detected by MAVEN/SEP in the 20 keV to 6 MeV detected energy channels. At higher energies, MAVEN/SEP record `FTO' SEP events that were triggered by > 13 MeV energetic protons passing through all three silicon detector layers (Front, Thick, and Open). Using the detector response matrix for an FTO event (incident energy vs detected energy), the minimum incident energy of the SEP protons observed in March 2015 was inferred to be > 40 MeV. The lack of any notable enhancements in the surface dose rate by MSL/RAD suggests that the highest incident energies of the SEP protons were 150 MeV SEP protons impacted the Martian atmosphere and surface. The source of the October 2015 SEP event was probably the CME that erupted near the solar west limb with respect to the Sun-Mars line. As part of the discussion, we will also show solar-heliospheric observations from near-Earth assets together with WSA-Enlil-cone results for some global heliospheric context.

Satellite-Observed Black Water Events off Southwest Florida: Implications for Coral Reef Health in the Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary

OpenAIRE

Zhao, Jun; Hu, Chuanmin; Lapointe, Brian; Melo, Nelson; Johns, Elizabeth; Smith, Ryan

2013-01-01

A “black water” event, as observed from satellites, occurred off southwest Florida in 2012. Satellite observations suggested that the event started in early January and ended in mid-April 2012. The black water patch formed off central west Florida and advected southward towards Florida Bay and the Florida Keys with the shelf circulation, which was confirmed by satellite-tracked surface drifter trajectories. Compared with a previous black water event in 2002, the 2012 event was weaker in terms...

Modeling long recovery early events (LOREs) produced by lightning-induced ionization of the nighttime upper mesosphere

Science.gov (United States)

Kotovsky, D. A.; Moore, R. C.

2017-07-01

We present results of a cylindrically symmetric, coupled electrodynamic, and photochemical model which simulates diffuse ionization of the middle atmosphere induced by strong lightning discharges (peak currents >150 kA). Scattering of subionospherically propagating, very low frequency radio waves is then evaluated using the Long-Wave Propagation Capability code. Some modeled sprite halos exhibit continued electron density growth up to timescales of seconds due to O- detachment, though it is not yet clear how this might relate to the slower onset durations (>20 ms) of some early VLF events. Modeled electron density enhancements in sprite halos, capable of strong VLF scattering, can persist for long periods of time (greater than hundreds of seconds) even at lower altitudes where their recovery is initially controlled by fast attachment processes. Consequently, our modeling results indicate that both typical recovery (20 to 240 s) and long recovery (LOREs, >300 s) VLF scattering events can be explained by scattering from conductivity changes associated with sprite halos. In contrast, modeled scattered fields resulting from elve-associated conductivity changes, though exhibiting long recovery times, are too weak to sufficiently explain typical LORE observations. Theoretical scattering from structured ionization events (e.g., sprites columns and gigantic jets) is not considered in this work.

Statistical survey of widely spread out solar electron events observed with STEREO and ACE with special attention to anisotropies

Science.gov (United States)

Dresing, N.; Gómez-Herrero, R.; Heber, B.; Klassen, A.; Malandraki, O.; Dröge, W.; Kartavykh, Y.

2014-07-01

Context. In February 2011, the two STEREO spacecrafts reached a separation of 180 degrees in longitude, offering a complete view of the Sun for the first time ever. When the full Sun surface is visible, source active regions of solar energetic particle (SEP) events can be identified unambiguously. STEREO, in combination with near-Earth observatories such as ACE or SOHO, provides three well separated viewpoints, which build an unprecedented platform from which to investigate the longitudinal variations of SEP events. Aims: We show an ensemble of SEP events that were observed between 2009 and mid-2013 by at least two spacecrafts and show a remarkably wide particle spread in longitude (wide-spread events). The main selection criterion for these events was a longitudinal separation of at least 80 degrees between active region and spacecraft magnetic footpoint for the widest separated spacecraft. We investigate the events statistically in terms of peak intensities, onset delays, and rise times, and determine the spread of the longitudinal events, which is the range filled by SEPs during the events. Energetic electron anisotropies are investigated to distinguish the source and transport mechanisms that lead to the observed wide particle spreads. Methods: According to the anisotropy distributions, we divided the events into three classes depending on different source and transport scenarios. One potential mechanism for wide-spread events is efficient perpendicular transport in the interplanetary medium that competes with another scenario, which is a wide particle spread that occurs close to the Sun. In the latter case, the observations at 1 AU during the early phase of the events are expected to show significant anisotropies because of the wide injection range at the Sun and particle-focusing during the outward propagation, while in the first case only low anisotropies are anticipated. Results: We find events for both of these scenarios in our sample that match the

Integrating Behaviour in Software Models: An Event Coordination Notation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kindler, Ekkart

2011-01-01

One of the main problems in model-based software engineering is modelling behaviour in such a way that the behaviour models can be easily integrated with each other, with the structural software models and with pre-existing software. In this paper, we propose an event coordination notation (ECNO)...

Measurement of the underlying event using track-based event shapes in Z→l{sup +}l{sup -} events with ATLAS

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Schulz, Holger

2014-09-11

This thesis describes a measurement of hadron-collider event shapes in proton-proton collisions at a centre of momentum energy of 7 TeV at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) at CERN (Conseil Europeenne pour la Recherche Nucleaire) located near Geneva (Switzerland). The analysed data (integrated luminosity: 1.1 fb{sup -1}) was recorded in 2011 with the ATLAS-experiment. Events where a Z-boson was produced in the hard sub-process which subsequently decays into an electron-positron or muon-antimuon pair were selected for this analysis. The observables are calculated using all reconstructed tracks of charged particles within the acceptance of the inner detector of ATLAS except those of the leptons of the Z-decay. Thus, this is the first measurement of its kind. The observables were corrected for background processes using data-driven methods. For the correction of so-called ''pile-up'' (multiple overlapping proton-proton collisions) a novel technique was developed and successfully applied. The data was further unfolded to correct for remaining detector effects. The obtained distributions are especially sensitive to the so-called ''Underlying Event'' and can be compared with predictions of Monte-Carlo event-generators directly, i.e. without the necessity of running time-consuming simulations of the ATLAS-detector. Finally, it was tried to improve the predictions of the event generators Pythia8 and Sherpa by finding an optimised setting of relevant model parameters in a technique called ''Tuning''. It became apparent, however, that the underlying Sjoestrand-Zijl model is unable to give a good description of the measured event-shape distributions.

An Observational Analysis of Coaching Behaviors for Career Development Event Teams: A Mixed Methods Study

Science.gov (United States)

Ball, Anna L.; Bowling, Amanda M.; Sharpless, Justin D.

2016-01-01

School Based Agricultural Education (SBAE) teachers can use coaching behaviors, along with their agricultural content knowledge to help their Career Development Event (CDE) teams succeed. This mixed methods, collective case study observed three SBAE teachers preparing multiple CDEs throughout the CDE season. The teachers observed had a previous…

Characterization And State-Of-The-Art Modeling Of Extreme Precipitation Events Over Africa During The Historical Period

Science.gov (United States)

Gibba, P.; Sylla, M. B.

2015-12-01

The ability of the state-of-the-art climate models to reproduce the mean spatial characteristics of extreme precipitation indices over Africa is evaluated. The ensembles of eight precipitation-based indices as defined by ETCCDI were extracted from seventeen CMIP5 GCMs and twelve CORDEX RCMs simulations based on absolute and percentile (95th) thresholds and computed from the 1975 to 2004 historical period. Daily precipitation indices calculated from GPCP and TRMM satellite-derived observation datasets during the period 1997 to 2012 and 1998 to 2011 respectively were also employed in this study for model validation. Results of spatial representation of the frequency of extreme precipitation events (R1mm, CDD, CWD and R95p) highlight a generally good consistency between the two observations. Equally, in the regional analysis some similarities exist in their median and interquartile (25th and 75th percentile) spread especially for CDD, CWD and R95p for most regions. In the associated intensities (SDII, RX5day, R95 and R95ptot), results indicate large spatial differences between the two observational datasets, with finer resolution TRMM generating higher rainfall intensities than the coarser resolution GPCP. TRMM has also demonstrated higher median and interquartile range as compared to GPCP. The CORDEX RCMs and CMIP5 GCMs simulations have estimated more number of extreme precipitation events, while underestimated the intensities. The differences between the models and observations can be as large as the typical model interquartile spread of the ensembles for some indices (R1mm, CWD, SDII and R95) in some regions. Meanwhile, CORDEX estimations are generally closer to the observations than CMIP5 in reproducing the frequency of extreme rainfall indices. For the estimation of rainfall intensities, CORDEX simulations are in most cases more consistence with TRMM observations whilst the CMIP5 GCMs simulations are closer to GPCP observations.

Aligning observed and modelled behaviour based on workflow decomposition

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Lu; Du, YuYue; Liu, Wei

2017-09-01

When business processes are mostly supported by information systems, the availability of event logs generated from these systems, as well as the requirement of appropriate process models are increasing. Business processes can be discovered, monitored and enhanced by extracting process-related information. However, some events cannot be correctly identified because of the explosion of the amount of event logs. Therefore, a new process mining technique is proposed based on a workflow decomposition method in this paper. Petri nets (PNs) are used to describe business processes, and then conformance checking of event logs and process models is investigated. A decomposition approach is proposed to divide large process models and event logs into several separate parts that can be analysed independently; while an alignment approach based on a state equation method in PN theory enhances the performance of conformance checking. Both approaches are implemented in programmable read-only memory (ProM). The correctness and effectiveness of the proposed methods are illustrated through experiments.

Onsets of Solar Proton Events in Satellite and Ground Level Observations: A Comparison

Science.gov (United States)

He, Jing; Rodriguez, Juan V.

2018-03-01

The early detection of solar proton event onsets is essential for protecting humans and electronics in space, as well as passengers and crew at aviation altitudes. Two commonly compared methods for observing solar proton events that are sufficiently large and energetic to be detected on the ground through the creation of secondary radiation—known as ground level enhancements (GLEs)—are (1) a network of ground-based neutron monitors (NMs) and (2) satellite-based particle detectors. Until recently, owing to the different time resolution of the two data sets, it has not been feasible to compare these two types of observations using the same detection algorithm. This paper presents a comparison between the two observational platforms using newly processed >100 MeV 1 min count rates and fluxes from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) 8-12 satellites, and 1 min count rates from the Neutron Monitor Database. We applied the same detection algorithm to each data set (tuned to the different background noise levels of the instrument types). Seventeen SPEs with GLEs were studied: GLEs 55-70 from Solar Cycle 23 and GLE 71 from Solar Cycle 24. The median difference in the event detection times by GOES and NM data is 0 min, indicating no innate benefit in time of either system. The 10th, 25th, 75th, and 90th percentiles of the onset time differences (GOES minus NMs) are -7.2 min, -1.5 min, 2.5 min, and 4.2 min, respectively. This is in contrast to previous studies in which NM detections led GOES by 8 to 52 min without accounting for different alert protocols.

Powering stochastic reliability models by discrete event simulation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kozine, Igor; Wang, Xiaoyun

2012-01-01

it difficult to find a solution to the problem. The power of modern computers and recent developments in discrete-event simulation (DES) software enable to diminish some of the drawbacks of stochastic models. In this paper we describe the insights we have gained based on using both Markov and DES models...

Evaluation of cool season precipitation event characteristics over the Northeast US in a suite of downscaled climate model hindcasts

Science.gov (United States)

Loikith, Paul C.; Waliser, Duane E.; Kim, Jinwon; Ferraro, Robert

2017-08-01

Cool season precipitation event characteristics are evaluated across a suite of downscaled climate models over the northeastern US. Downscaled hindcast simulations are produced by dynamically downscaling the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications version 2 (MERRA2) using the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)-Unified Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) regional climate model (RCM) and the Goddard Earth Observing System Model, Version 5 (GEOS-5) global climate model. NU-WRF RCM simulations are produced at 24, 12, and 4-km horizontal resolutions using a range of spectral nudging schemes while the MERRA2 global downscaled run is provided at 12.5-km. All model runs are evaluated using four metrics designed to capture key features of precipitation events: event frequency, event intensity, even total, and event duration. Overall, the downscaling approaches result in a reasonable representation of many of the key features of precipitation events over the region, however considerable biases exist in the magnitude of each metric. Based on this evaluation there is no clear indication that higher resolution simulations result in more realistic results in general, however many small-scale features such as orographic enhancement of precipitation are only captured at higher resolutions suggesting some added value over coarser resolution. While the differences between simulations produced using nudging and no nudging are small, there is some improvement in model fidelity when nudging is introduced, especially at a cutoff wavelength of 600 km compared to 2000 km. Based on the results of this evaluation, dynamical regional downscaling using NU-WRF results in a more realistic representation of precipitation event climatology than the global downscaling of MERRA2 using GEOS-5.

Understanding Transient Forcing with Plasma Instability Model, Ionospheric Propagation Model and GNSS Observations

Science.gov (United States)

Deshpande, K.; Zettergren, M. D.; Datta-Barua, S.

2017-12-01

Fluctuations in the Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) signals observed as amplitude and phase scintillations are produced by plasma density structures in the ionosphere. Phase scintillation events in particular occur due to structures at Fresnel scales, typically about 250 meters at ionospheric heights and GNSS frequency. Likely processes contributing to small-scale density structuring in auroral and polar regions include ionospheric gradient-drift instability (GDI) and Kelvin-Helmholtz instability (KHI), which result, generally, from magnetosphere-ionosphere interactions (e.g. reconnection) associated with cusp and auroral zone regions. Scintillation signals, ostensibly from either GDI or KHI, are frequently observed in the high latitude ionosphere and are potentially useful diagnostics of how energy from the transient forcing in the cusp or polar cap region cascades, via instabilities, to small scales. However, extracting quantitative details of instabilities leading to scintillation using GNSS data drastically benefits from both a model of the irregularities and a model of GNSS signal propagation through irregular media. This work uses a physics-based model of the generation of plasma density irregularities (GEMINI - Geospace Environment Model of Ion-Neutral Interactions) coupled to an ionospheric radio wave propagation model (SIGMA - Satellite-beacon Ionospheric-scintillation Global Model of the upper Atmosphere) to explore the cascade of density structures from medium to small (sub-kilometer) scales. Specifically, GEMINI-SIGMA is used to simulate expected scintillation from different instabilities during various stages of evolution to determine features of the scintillation that may be useful to studying ionospheric density structures. Furthermore we relate the instabilities producing GNSS scintillations to the transient space and time-dependent magnetospheric phenomena and further predict characteristics of scintillation in different geophysical

Wind-drive coastal currents in the Gulf of Tehuatepec: HF radar observations and numerical model simulations.

Science.gov (United States)

Velazquez, F. A.; Martinez, J. A.; Durazo, R.; Flament, P.

2007-12-01

Most of the studies on coastal dynamics in the Gulf of Tehuatepec (GT) have been focused on mixing processes and mesoscale eddies generated due to strong off-shore wind events, know as Nortes or Tehuanos. In order to investigate the spatial and temporal mesoscale variability of surface dynamic in the GT in February 2005, two HF Radar model WERA were deployed along the shore of Oaxaca, Mexico. The spatial coverage of radars reaches up to 120 km off-shore. The radial velocities were processed to obtain total velocity maps every hour in a regular grid of 5.5 km. space resolution. The information of surface velocity and quickscat/NCEP wind obtained during the first sample days show that exist a coastal current toward the west and, during the wind events, is accelerated and steered toward the southwest. In this same period, we find that spatial density of kinetic energy and divergence of velocity field increase during wind events while the vorticity becomes negative. When strong wind events are not present the surface circulation is weakened, mainly for the zonal component of the wind that is mostly positive (westward). These results are in agreement with the upwelling processes observed on the coast and the anticyclonic eddie generation west of the GT during Tehuanos. Images of sea surface temperature and chlorophyll concentration are also used to observe the signature of wind events near the shore. Complementary to field observations, numerical simulation using a 3D primitive equations model (POM) are used to study the wind-driven circulation in the GT. It has been commonly accepted in previous studies that the strong wind events generate mesoscale eddies. We discuss the limited effect of the wind and the interaction of the wind with a coastal current required to generate long life eddies.

Random and externally controlled occurrences of Dansgaard–Oeschger events

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. Lohmann

2018-05-01

Full Text Available Dansgaard–Oeschger (DO events constitute the most pronounced mode of centennial to millennial climate variability of the last glacial period. Since their discovery, many decades of research have been devoted to understand the origin and nature of these rapid climate shifts. In recent years, a number of studies have appeared that report emergence of DO-type variability in fully coupled general circulation models via different mechanisms. These mechanisms result in the occurrence of DO events at varying degrees of regularity, ranging from periodic to random. When examining the full sequence of DO events as captured in the North Greenland Ice Core Project (NGRIP ice core record, one can observe high irregularity in the timing of individual events at any stage within the last glacial period. In addition to the prevailing irregularity, certain properties of the DO event sequence, such as the average event frequency or the relative distribution of cold versus warm periods, appear to be changing throughout the glacial. By using statistical hypothesis tests on simple event models, we investigate whether the observed event sequence may have been generated by stationary random processes or rather was strongly modulated by external factors. We find that the sequence of DO warming events is consistent with a stationary random process, whereas dividing the event sequence into warming and cooling events leads to inconsistency with two independent event processes. As we include external forcing, we find a particularly good fit to the observed DO sequence in a model where the average residence time in warm periods are controlled by global ice volume and cold periods by boreal summer insolation.

Random and externally controlled occurrences of Dansgaard-Oeschger events

Science.gov (United States)

Lohmann, Johannes; Ditlevsen, Peter D.

2018-05-01

Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events constitute the most pronounced mode of centennial to millennial climate variability of the last glacial period. Since their discovery, many decades of research have been devoted to understand the origin and nature of these rapid climate shifts. In recent years, a number of studies have appeared that report emergence of DO-type variability in fully coupled general circulation models via different mechanisms. These mechanisms result in the occurrence of DO events at varying degrees of regularity, ranging from periodic to random. When examining the full sequence of DO events as captured in the North Greenland Ice Core Project (NGRIP) ice core record, one can observe high irregularity in the timing of individual events at any stage within the last glacial period. In addition to the prevailing irregularity, certain properties of the DO event sequence, such as the average event frequency or the relative distribution of cold versus warm periods, appear to be changing throughout the glacial. By using statistical hypothesis tests on simple event models, we investigate whether the observed event sequence may have been generated by stationary random processes or rather was strongly modulated by external factors. We find that the sequence of DO warming events is consistent with a stationary random process, whereas dividing the event sequence into warming and cooling events leads to inconsistency with two independent event processes. As we include external forcing, we find a particularly good fit to the observed DO sequence in a model where the average residence time in warm periods are controlled by global ice volume and cold periods by boreal summer insolation.

Using Indexed and Synchronous Events to Model and Validate Cyber-Physical Systems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chen-Wei Wang

2015-06-01

Full Text Available Timed Transition Models (TTMs are event-based descriptions for modelling, specifying, and verifying discrete real-time systems. An event can be spontaneous, fair, or timed with specified bounds. TTMs have a textual syntax, an operational semantics, and an automated tool supporting linear-time temporal logic. We extend TTMs and its tool with two novel modelling features for writing high-level specifications: indexed events and synchronous events. Indexed events allow for concise description of behaviour common to a set of actors. The indexing construct allows us to select a specific actor and to specify a temporal property for that actor. We use indexed events to validate the requirements of a train control system. Synchronous events allow developers to decompose simultaneous state updates into actions of separate events. To specify the intended data flow among synchronized actions, we use primed variables to reference the post-state (i.e., one resulted from taking the synchronized actions. The TTM tool automatically infers the data flow from synchronous events, and reports errors on inconsistencies due to circular data flow. We use synchronous events to validate part of the requirements of a nuclear shutdown system. In both case studies, we show how the new notation facilitates the formal validation of system requirements, and use the TTM tool to verify safety, liveness, and real-time properties.

AN OCCULTATION EVENT IN CENTAURUS A AND THE CLUMPY TORUS MODEL

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rivers, Elizabeth; Markowitz, Alex; Rothschild, Richard

2011-01-01

We have analyzed 16 months of sustained monitoring observations of Centaurus A from the Rossi X-Ray Timing Explorer to search for changes in the absorbing column in the line of sight to the central nucleus. We present time-resolved spectroscopy which indicates that a discrete clump of material transited the line of sight to the central illuminating source over the course of ∼170 days between 2010 August and 2011 February with a maximum increase in the column density of about 8.4 × 10 22 cm –2 . This is the best quality data of such an event that has ever been analyzed with the shape of the ingress and egress clearly seen. Modeling the clump of material as roughly spherical with a linearly decreasing density profile and assuming a distance from the central nucleus commensurate with the dusty torus, we found that the clump would have a diameter of (1.4-2.4) × 10 15 cm with a central number density of n H = (1.8-3.0) × 10 7 cm –3 . This is consistent with previous results for a similar (though possibly much longer) occultation event inferred in this source in 2003-2004 and supports models of the molecular torus as a clumpy medium.

How to model mutually exclusive events based on independent causal pathways in Bayesian network models

OpenAIRE

Fenton, N.; Neil, M.; Lagnado, D.; Marsh, W.; Yet, B.; Constantinou, A.

2016-01-01

We show that existing Bayesian network (BN) modelling techniques cannot capture the correct intuitive reasoning in the important case when a set of mutually exclusive events need to be modelled as separate nodes instead of states of a single node. A previously proposed ‘solution’, which introduces a simple constraint node that enforces mutual exclusivity, fails to preserve the prior probabilities of the events, while other proposed solutions involve major changes to the original model. We pro...

Concurrency Models with Causality and Events as Psi-calculi

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Håkon Normann

2014-10-01

Full Text Available Psi-calculi are a parametric framework for nominal calculi, where standard calculi are found as instances, like the pi-calculus, or the cryptographic spi-calculus and applied-pi. Psi-calculi have an interleaving operational semantics, with a strong foundation on the theory of nominal sets and process algebras. Much of the expressive power of psi-calculi comes from their logical part, i.e., assertions, conditions, and entailment, which are left quite open thus accommodating a wide range of logics. We are interested in how this expressiveness can deal with event-based models of concurrency. We thus take the popular prime event structures model and give an encoding into an instance of psi-calculi. We also take the recent and expressive model of Dynamic Condition Response Graphs (in which event structures are strictly included and give an encoding into another corresponding instance of psi-calculi. The encodings that we achieve look rather natural and intuitive. Additional results about these encodings give us more confidence in their correctness.

International Observe the Moon Night: Using Public Outreach Events to Tell Your Story to the Public

Science.gov (United States)

Hsu, B. C.; International Observe the Moon Night Coordinating Committee

2011-12-01

From various interpretations of the lunar "face," early pictograms of the Moon's phases, or to the use of the lunar cycle for festivals or harvests, the Moon has an undeniable influence on human civilization. International Observe the Moon Night (InOMN) capitalizes on the human connection to the Moon by engaging the public in annual lunar observation campaigns that share the excitement of lunar science and exploration. In 2010 (InOMN's inaugural year), over 500,000 people attended events in 53 countries around the world. About 68% of InOMN hosts - astronomy clubs, museums, schools, or other groups - used the resources on the InOMN website (http://observethemoonnight.org). The InOMN website provided supporting materials for InOMN event hosts in the form of downloadable advertising materials, Moon maps, suggestions for hands-on educational activities, and links to lunar science content. InOMN event participants shared their experiences with the world using the Web and social media, event hosts shared their experiences with evaluation data, and amateur astronomers and photographers shared their images of the Moon through the lunar photography contest. The overwhelming response from InOMN in 2010 represents an untapped potential for infusing cutting edge lunar science and exploration into a large-scale public outreach event.

A model of a sunspot chromosphere based on OSO 8 observations

Science.gov (United States)

Lites, B. W.; Skumanich, A.

1982-01-01

OSO 8 spectrometer observations of the H I, Mg II, and Ca II resonance lines of a large quiet sunspot during November 16-17, 1975, along with a C IV line of that event obtained by a ground-based spectrometer, are analyzed together with near-simultaneous ground-based Stokes measurements to yield an umbral chromosphere and transition region model. Features of this model include a chromosphere that is effectively thin in the resonance lines of H I and Mg II, while being saturated in Ca II, and an upper chromospheric structure similar to that of quiet-sun models. The similarity of the upper chromosphere of the sunspot umbra to the quiet-sun chromosphere suggests that the intense magnetic field plays only a passive role in the chromospheric heating mechanism, and the observations cited indicate that solar-type stars with large areas of ordered magnetic flux would not necessarily exhibit extremely active chromosphere.

Multiple daytime nucleation events in semi-clean savannah and industrial environments in South Africa: analysis based on observations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Hirsikko

2013-06-01

Full Text Available Recent studies have shown very high frequencies of atmospheric new particle formation in different environments in South Africa. Our aim here was to investigate the causes for two or three consecutive daytime nucleation events, followed by subsequent particle growth during the same day. We analysed 108 and 31 such days observed in a polluted industrial and moderately polluted rural environments, respectively, in South Africa. The analysis was based on two years of measurements at each site. After rejecting the days having notable changes in the air mass origin or local wind direction, i.e. two major reasons for observed multiple nucleation events, we were able to investigate other factors causing this phenomenon. Clouds were present during, or in between most of the analysed multiple particle formation events. Therefore, some of these events may have been single events, interrupted somehow by the presence of clouds. From further analysis, we propose that the first nucleation and growth event of the day was often associated with the mixing of a residual air layer rich in SO2 (oxidized to sulphuric acid into the shallow surface-coupled layer. The second nucleation and growth event of the day usually started before midday and was sometimes associated with renewed SO2 emissions from industrial origin. However, it was also evident that vapours other than sulphuric acid were required for the particle growth during both events. This was especially the case when two simultaneously growing particle modes were observed. Based on our analysis, we conclude that the relative contributions of estimated H2SO4 and other vapours on the first and second nucleation and growth events of the day varied from day to day, depending on anthropogenic and natural emissions, as well as atmospheric conditions.

Predictive modeling of structured electronic health records for adverse drug event detection.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhao, Jing; Henriksson, Aron; Asker, Lars; Boström, Henrik

2015-01-01

The digitization of healthcare data, resulting from the increasingly widespread adoption of electronic health records, has greatly facilitated its analysis by computational methods and thereby enabled large-scale secondary use thereof. This can be exploited to support public health activities such as pharmacovigilance, wherein the safety of drugs is monitored to inform regulatory decisions about sustained use. To that end, electronic health records have emerged as a potentially valuable data source, providing access to longitudinal observations of patient treatment and drug use. A nascent line of research concerns predictive modeling of healthcare data for the automatic detection of adverse drug events, which presents its own set of challenges: it is not yet clear how to represent the heterogeneous data types in a manner conducive to learning high-performing machine learning models. Datasets from an electronic health record database are used for learning predictive models with the purpose of detecting adverse drug events. The use and representation of two data types, as well as their combination, are studied: clinical codes, describing prescribed drugs and assigned diagnoses, and measurements. Feature selection is conducted on the various types of data to reduce dimensionality and sparsity, while allowing for an in-depth feature analysis of the usefulness of each data type and representation. Within each data type, combining multiple representations yields better predictive performance compared to using any single representation. The use of clinical codes for adverse drug event detection significantly outperforms the use of measurements; however, there is no significant difference over datasets between using only clinical codes and their combination with measurements. For certain adverse drug events, the combination does, however, outperform using only clinical codes. Feature selection leads to increased predictive performance for both data types, in isolation and

A statistical analysis of angular distribution of neutrino events observed in Kamiokande II and IMB detectors from supernova SN 1987 A

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Krivoruchenko, M.I.

1989-01-01

A detailed statistical analysis of angular distribution of neutrino events observed in Kamiokande II and IMB detectors on UT 07:35, 2/23'87 is carried out. Distribution functions of the mean scattering angles in the reaction anti υ e p→e + n and υe→υe are constructed with account taken of the multiple Coulomb scattering and the experimental angular errors. The Smirnov and Wald-Wolfowitz run tests are used to test the hypothesis that the angular distributions of events from the two detectors agree with each other. We test with the use of the Kolmogorov and Mises statistical criterions the hypothesis that the recorded events all represent anti υ e p→e + n inelastic scatterings. Then the Neyman-Pearson test is applied to each event in testing the hypothesis anti υ e p→e + n against the alternative υe→υe. The hypotheses that the number of elastic events equals s=0, 1, 2, ... against the alternatives s≠0, 1, 2, ... are tested on the basis of the generalized likelihood ratio criterion. The confidence intervals for the number of elastic events are also constructed. The current supernova models fail to give a satisfactory account of the angular distribution data. (orig.)

Global modeling of flux transfer events: generation mechanism and spacecraft signatures

Science.gov (United States)

Raeder, J.

2003-04-01

Magnetic reconnection is a fundamental mode of energy and momentum transfer from the solar wind to the magnetosphere. It is known to occur in different forms depending on solar wind and magnetospheric conditions. In particular, steady reconnection can be distinguished from pulse-like reconnection events which are also known as Flux Transfer Events (FTEs). The formation mechanism of FTEs and their contolling factors remain controversial. We use global MHD simulations of Earth's magnetosphere to show that for southward IMF conditions: a) steady reconnection preferentially occurs without FTEs when the stagnation flow line nearly coincides with the X-line location, which requires small dipole tilt and nearly due southward IMF, b) FTEs occur when the flow/field symmetry is broken, which requires either a large dipole tilt and/or a substantial east-west component of the IMF, c) the predicted spacecraft signature and the repetition frequency of FTEs in the simulations agrees very well with typical observations, lending credibility to the the model, d) the fundamental process that leads to FTE formation is multiple X-line formation caused by the flow and field patterns in the magnetosheath and requires no intrinsic plasma property variations like variable resistivity, e) if the dipole tilt breaks the symmetry FTEs occur only in the winter hemisphere whereas the reconnection signatures in the summer hemisphere are steady with no bipolar FTE-like signatures, f) if the IMF east-west field component breaks the symmetry FTEs occur in both hemispheres, and g) FTE formation depends on sufficient resolution and low diffusion in the model -- coarse resolution and/or high diffusivity lead to flow-through reconnection signatures that appear unphysical given the frequent observation of FTEs.

Yield curve event tree construction for multi stage stochastic programming models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rasmussen, Kourosh Marjani; Poulsen, Rolf

Dynamic stochastic programming (DSP) provides an intuitive framework for modelling of financial portfolio choice problems where market frictions are present and dynamic re--balancing has a significant effect on initial decisions. The application of these models in practice, however, is limited....... Indeed defining a universal and tractable framework for fully ``appropriate'' event trees is in our opinion an impossible task. A problem specific approach to designing such event trees is the way ahead. In this paper we propose a number of desirable properties which should be present in an event tree...

Event-based soil loss models for construction sites

Science.gov (United States)

Trenouth, William R.; Gharabaghi, Bahram

2015-05-01

The elevated rates of soil erosion stemming from land clearing and grading activities during urban development, can result in excessive amounts of eroded sediments entering waterways and causing harm to the biota living therein. However, construction site event-based soil loss simulations - required for reliable design of erosion and sediment controls - are one of the most uncertain types of hydrologic models. This study presents models with improved degree of accuracy to advance the design of erosion and sediment controls for construction sites. The new models are developed using multiple linear regression (MLR) on event-based permutations of the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) and artificial neural networks (ANN). These models were developed using surface runoff monitoring datasets obtained from three sites - Greensborough, Cookstown, and Alcona - in Ontario and datasets mined from the literature for three additional sites - Treynor, Iowa, Coshocton, Ohio and Cordoba, Spain. The predictive MLR and ANN models can serve as both diagnostic and design tools for the effective sizing of erosion and sediment controls on active construction sites, and can be used for dynamic scenario forecasting when considering rapidly changing land use conditions during various phases of construction.

An integrated logit model for contamination event detection in water distribution systems.

Science.gov (United States)

Housh, Mashor; Ostfeld, Avi

2015-05-15

The problem of contamination event detection in water distribution systems has become one of the most challenging research topics in water distribution systems analysis. Current attempts for event detection utilize a variety of approaches including statistical, heuristics, machine learning, and optimization methods. Several existing event detection systems share a common feature in which alarms are obtained separately for each of the water quality indicators. Unifying those single alarms from different indicators is usually performed by means of simple heuristics. A salient feature of the current developed approach is using a statistically oriented model for discrete choice prediction which is estimated using the maximum likelihood method for integrating the single alarms. The discrete choice model is jointly calibrated with other components of the event detection system framework in a training data set using genetic algorithms. The fusing process of each indicator probabilities, which is left out of focus in many existing event detection system models, is confirmed to be a crucial part of the system which could be modelled by exploiting a discrete choice model for improving its performance. The developed methodology is tested on real water quality data, showing improved performances in decreasing the number of false positive alarms and in its ability to detect events with higher probabilities, compared to previous studies. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Measurement of event-shape observables in $Z \\to \\ell^{+} \\ell^{-}$ events in $pp$ collisions at $\\sqrt{s}=7$ TeV with the ATLAS detector at the LHC

CERN Document Server

Aad, Georges; Abdallah, Jalal; Abdinov, Ovsat; Abeloos, Baptiste; Aben, Rosemarie; Abolins, Maris; AbouZeid, Ossama; Abraham, Nicola; Abramowicz, Halina; Abreu, Henso; Abreu, Ricardo; Abulaiti, Yiming; Acharya, Bobby Samir; Adamczyk, Leszek; Adams, David; Adelman, Jahred; Adomeit, Stefanie; Adye, Tim; Affolder, Tony; Agatonovic-Jovin, Tatjana; Agricola, Johannes; Aguilar-Saavedra, Juan Antonio; Ahlen, Steven; Ahmadov, Faig; Aielli, Giulio; Akerstedt, Henrik; Åkesson, Torsten Paul Ake; Akimov, Andrei; Alberghi, Gian Luigi; Albert, Justin; Albrand, Solveig; Alconada Verzini, Maria Josefina; Aleksa, Martin; Aleksandrov, Igor; Alexa, Calin; Alexander, Gideon; Alexopoulos, Theodoros; Alhroob, Muhammad; Aliev, Malik; Alimonti, Gianluca; Alison, John; Alkire, Steven Patrick; Allbrooke, Benedict; Allen, Benjamin William; Allport, Phillip; Aloisio, Alberto; Alonso, Alejandro; Alonso, Francisco; Alpigiani, Cristiano; Alvarez Gonzalez, Barbara; Άlvarez Piqueras, Damián; Alviggi, Mariagrazia; Amadio, Brian Thomas; Amako, Katsuya; Amaral Coutinho, Yara; Amelung, Christoph; Amidei, Dante; Amor Dos Santos, Susana Patricia; Amorim, Antonio; Amoroso, Simone; Amram, Nir; Amundsen, Glenn; Anastopoulos, Christos; Ancu, Lucian Stefan; Andari, Nansi; Andeen, Timothy; Anders, Christoph Falk; Anders, Gabriel; Anders, John Kenneth; Anderson, Kelby; Andreazza, Attilio; Andrei, George Victor; Angelidakis, Stylianos; Angelozzi, Ivan; Anger, Philipp; Angerami, Aaron; Anghinolfi, Francis; Anisenkov, Alexey; Anjos, Nuno; Annovi, Alberto; Antonelli, Mario; Antonov, Alexey; Antos, Jaroslav; Anulli, Fabio; Aoki, Masato; Aperio Bella, Ludovica; Arabidze, Giorgi; Arai, Yasuo; Araque, Juan Pedro; Arce, Ayana; Arduh, Francisco Anuar; Arguin, Jean-Francois; Argyropoulos, Spyridon; Arik, Metin; Armbruster, Aaron James; Armitage, Lewis James; Arnaez, Olivier; Arnold, Hannah; Arratia, Miguel; Arslan, Ozan; Artamonov, Andrei; Artoni, Giacomo; Artz, Sebastian; Asai, Shoji; Asbah, Nedaa; Ashkenazi, Adi; Åsman, Barbro; Asquith, Lily; Assamagan, Ketevi; Astalos, Robert; Atkinson, Markus; Atlay, Naim Bora; Augsten, Kamil; Avolio, Giuseppe; Axen, Bradley; Ayoub, Mohamad Kassem; Azuelos, Georges; Baak, Max; Baas, Alessandra; Baca, Matthew John; Bachacou, Henri; Bachas, Konstantinos; Backes, Moritz; Backhaus, Malte; Bagiacchi, Paolo; Bagnaia, Paolo; Bai, Yu; Baines, John; Baker, Oliver Keith; Baldin, Evgenii; Balek, Petr; Balestri, Thomas; Balli, Fabrice; Balunas, William Keaton; Banas, Elzbieta; Banerjee, Swagato; Bannoura, Arwa A E; Barak, Liron; Barberio, Elisabetta Luigia; Barberis, Dario; Barbero, Marlon; Barillari, Teresa; Barisonzi, Marcello; Barklow, Timothy; Barlow, Nick; Barnes, Sarah Louise; Barnett, Bruce; Barnett, Michael; Barnovska, Zuzana; Baroncelli, Antonio; Barone, Gaetano; Barr, Alan; Barranco Navarro, Laura; Barreiro, Fernando; Barreiro Guimarães da Costa, João; Bartoldus, Rainer; Barton, Adam Edward; Bartos, Pavol; Basalaev, Artem; Bassalat, Ahmed; Basye, Austin; Bates, Richard; Batista, Santiago Juan; Batley, Richard; Battaglia, Marco; Bauce, Matteo; Bauer, Florian; Bawa, Harinder Singh; Beacham, James Baker; Beattie, Michael David; Beau, Tristan; Beauchemin, Pierre-Hugues; Bechtle, Philip; Beck, Hans~Peter; Becker, Kathrin; Becker, Maurice; Beckingham, Matthew; Becot, Cyril; Beddall, Andrew; Beddall, Ayda; Bednyakov, Vadim; Bedognetti, Matteo; Bee, Christopher; Beemster, Lars; Beermann, Thomas; Begel, Michael; Behr, Janna Katharina; Belanger-Champagne, Camille; Bell, Andrew Stuart; Bell, William; Bella, Gideon; Bellagamba, Lorenzo; Bellerive, Alain; Bellomo, Massimiliano; Belotskiy, Konstantin; Beltramello, Olga; Belyaev, Nikita; Benary, Odette; Benchekroun, Driss; Bender, Michael; Bendtz, Katarina; Benekos, Nektarios; Benhammou, Yan; Benhar Noccioli, Eleonora; Benitez, Jose; Benitez Garcia, Jorge-Armando; Benjamin, Douglas; Bensinger, James; Bentvelsen, Stan; Beresford, Lydia; Beretta, Matteo; Berge, David; Bergeaas Kuutmann, Elin; Berger, Nicolas; Berghaus, Frank; Beringer, Jürg; Berlendis, Simon; Bernard, Nathan Rogers; Bernius, Catrin; Bernlochner, Florian Urs; Berry, Tracey; Berta, Peter; Bertella, Claudia; Bertoli, Gabriele; Bertolucci, Federico; Bertram, Iain Alexander; Bertsche, Carolyn; Bertsche, David; Besjes, Geert-Jan; Bessidskaia Bylund, Olga; Bessner, Martin Florian; Besson, Nathalie; Betancourt, Christopher; Bethke, Siegfried; Bevan, Adrian John; Bhimji, Wahid; Bianchi, Riccardo-Maria; Bianchini, Louis; Bianco, Michele; Biebel, Otmar; Biedermann, Dustin; Bielski, Rafal; Biesuz, Nicolo Vladi; Biglietti, Michela; Bilbao De Mendizabal, Javier; Bilokon, Halina; Bindi, Marcello; Binet, Sebastien; Bingul, Ahmet; Bini, Cesare; Biondi, Silvia; Bjergaard, David Martin; Black, Curtis; Black, James; Black, Kevin; Blackburn, Daniel; Blair, Robert; Blanchard, Jean-Baptiste; Blanco, Jacobo Ezequiel; Blazek, Tomas; Bloch, Ingo; Blocker, Craig; Blum, Walter; Blumenschein, Ulrike; Blunier, Sylvain; Bobbink, Gerjan; Bobrovnikov, Victor; Bocchetta, Simona Serena; Bocci, Andrea; Bock, Christopher; Boehler, Michael; Boerner, Daniela; Bogaerts, Joannes Andreas; Bogavac, Danijela; Bogdanchikov, Alexander; Bohm, Christian; Boisvert, Veronique; Bold, Tomasz; Boldea, Venera; Boldyrev, Alexey; Bomben, Marco; Bona, Marcella; Boonekamp, Maarten; Borisov, Anatoly; Borissov, Guennadi; Bortfeldt, Jonathan; Bortoletto, Daniela; Bortolotto, Valerio; Bos, Kors; Boscherini, Davide; Bosman, Martine; Bossio Sola, Jonathan David; Boudreau, Joseph; Bouffard, Julian; Bouhova-Thacker, Evelina Vassileva; Boumediene, Djamel Eddine; Bourdarios, Claire; Boutle, Sarah Kate; Boveia, Antonio; Boyd, James; Boyko, Igor; Bracinik, Juraj; Brandt, Andrew; Brandt, Gerhard; Brandt, Oleg; Bratzler, Uwe; Brau, Benjamin; Brau, James; Braun, Helmut; Breaden Madden, William Dmitri; Brendlinger, Kurt; Brennan, Amelia Jean; Brenner, Lydia; Brenner, Richard; Bressler, Shikma; Bristow, Timothy Michael; Britton, Dave; Britzger, Daniel; Brochu, Frederic; Brock, Ian; Brock, Raymond; Brooijmans, Gustaaf; Brooks, Timothy; Brooks, William; Brosamer, Jacquelyn; Brost, Elizabeth; Broughton, James; Bruckman de Renstrom, Pawel; Bruncko, Dusan; Bruneliere, Renaud; Bruni, Alessia; Bruni, Graziano; Brunt, Benjamin; Bruschi, Marco; Bruscino, Nello; Bryant, Patrick; Bryngemark, Lene; Buanes, Trygve; Buat, Quentin; Buchholz, Peter; Buckley, Andrew; Budagov, Ioulian; Buehrer, Felix; Bugge, Magnar Kopangen; Bulekov, Oleg; Bullock, Daniel; Burckhart, Helfried; Burdin, Sergey; Burgard, Carsten Daniel; Burghgrave, Blake; Burka, Klaudia; Burke, Stephen; Burmeister, Ingo; Busato, Emmanuel; Büscher, Daniel; Büscher, Volker; Bussey, Peter; Butler, John; Butt, Aatif Imtiaz; Buttar, Craig; Butterworth, Jonathan; Butti, Pierfrancesco; Buttinger, William; Buzatu, Adrian; Buzykaev, Aleksey; Cabrera Urbán, Susana; Caforio, Davide; Cairo, Valentina; Cakir, Orhan; Calace, Noemi; Calafiura, Paolo; Calandri, Alessandro; Calderini, Giovanni; Calfayan, Philippe; Caloba, Luiz; Calvet, David; Calvet, Samuel; Calvet, Thomas Philippe; Camacho Toro, Reina; Camarda, Stefano; Camarri, Paolo; Cameron, David; Caminal Armadans, Roger; Camincher, Clement; Campana, Simone; Campanelli, Mario; Campoverde, Angel; Canale, Vincenzo; Canepa, Anadi; Cano Bret, Marc; Cantero, Josu; Cantrill, Robert; Cao, Tingting; Capeans Garrido, Maria Del Mar; Caprini, Irinel; Caprini, Mihai; Capua, Marcella; Caputo, Regina; Carbone, Ryne Michael; Cardarelli, Roberto; Cardillo, Fabio; Carli, Tancredi; Carlino, Gianpaolo; Carminati, Leonardo; Caron, Sascha; Carquin, Edson; Carrillo-Montoya, German D; Carter, Janet; Carvalho, João; Casadei, Diego; Casado, Maria Pilar; Casolino, Mirkoantonio; Casper, David William; Castaneda-Miranda, Elizabeth; Castelli, Angelantonio; Castillo Gimenez, Victoria; Castro, Nuno Filipe; Catinaccio, Andrea; Catmore, James; Cattai, Ariella; Caudron, Julien; Cavaliere, Viviana; Cavallaro, Emanuele; Cavalli, Donatella; Cavalli-Sforza, Matteo; Cavasinni, Vincenzo; Ceradini, Filippo; Cerda Alberich, Leonor; Cerio, Benjamin; Santiago Cerqueira, Augusto; Cerri, Alessandro; Cerrito, Lucio; Cerutti, Fabio; Cerv, Matevz; Cervelli, Alberto; Cetin, Serkant Ali; Chafaq, Aziz; Chakraborty, Dhiman; Chalupkova, Ina; Chan, Stephen Kam-wah; Chan, Yat Long; Chang, Philip; Chapman, John Derek; Charlton, Dave; Chatterjee, Avishek; Chau, Chav Chhiv; Chavez Barajas, Carlos Alberto; Che, Siinn; Cheatham, Susan; Chegwidden, Andrew; Chekanov, Sergei; Chekulaev, Sergey; Chelkov, Gueorgui; Chelstowska, Magda Anna; Chen, Chunhui; Chen, Hucheng; Chen, Karen; Chen, Shenjian; Chen, Shion; Chen, Xin; Chen, Ye; Cheng, Hok Chuen; Cheng, Huajie; Cheng, Yangyang; Cheplakov, Alexander; Cheremushkina, Evgenia; Cherkaoui El Moursli, Rajaa; Chernyatin, Valeriy; Cheu, Elliott; Chevalier, Laurent; Chiarella, Vitaliano; Chiarelli, Giorgio; Chiodini, Gabriele; Chisholm, Andrew; Chitan, Adrian; Chizhov, Mihail; Choi, Kyungeon; Chomont, Arthur Rene; Chouridou, Sofia; Chow, Bonnie Kar Bo; Christodoulou, Valentinos; Chromek-Burckhart, Doris; Chudoba, Jiri; Chuinard, Annabelle Julia; Chwastowski, Janusz; Chytka, Ladislav; Ciapetti, Guido; Ciftci, Abbas Kenan; Cinca, Diane; Cindro, Vladimir; Cioara, Irina Antonela; Ciocio, Alessandra; Cirotto, Francesco; Citron, Zvi Hirsh; Ciubancan, Mihai; Clark, Allan G; Clark, Brian Lee; Clark, Michael; Clark, Philip James; Clarke, Robert; Clement, Christophe; Coadou, Yann; Cobal, Marina; Coccaro, Andrea; Cochran, James H; Coffey, Laurel; Colasurdo, Luca; Cole, Brian; Cole, Stephen; Colijn, Auke-Pieter; Collot, Johann; Colombo, Tommaso; Compostella, Gabriele; Conde Muiño, Patricia; Coniavitis, Elias; Connell, Simon Henry; Connelly, Ian; Consorti, Valerio; Constantinescu, Serban; Conta, Claudio; Conti, Geraldine; Conventi, Francesco; Cooke, Mark; Cooper, Ben; Cooper-Sarkar, Amanda; Cornelissen, Thijs; Corradi, Massimo; Corriveau, Francois; Corso-Radu, Alina; Cortes-Gonzalez, Arely; Cortiana, Giorgio; Costa, Giuseppe; Costa, María José; Costanzo, Davide; Cottin, Giovanna; Cowan, Glen; Cox, Brian; Cranmer, Kyle; Crawley, Samuel Joseph; Cree, Graham; Crépé-Renaudin, Sabine; Crescioli, Francesco; Cribbs, Wayne Allen; Crispin Ortuzar, Mireia; Cristinziani, Markus; Croft, Vince; Crosetti, Giovanni; Cuhadar Donszelmann, Tulay; Cummings, Jane; Curatolo, Maria; Cúth, Jakub; Cuthbert, Cameron; Czirr, Hendrik; Czodrowski, Patrick; D'Auria, Saverio; D'Onofrio, Monica; Da Cunha Sargedas De Sousa, Mario Jose; Da Via, Cinzia; Dabrowski, Wladyslaw; Dai, Tiesheng; Dale, Orjan; Dallaire, Frederick; Dallapiccola, Carlo; Dam, Mogens; Dandoy, Jeffrey Rogers; Dang, Nguyen Phuong; Daniells, Andrew Christopher; Dann, Nicholas Stuart; Danninger, Matthias; Dano Hoffmann, Maria; Dao, Valerio; Darbo, Giovanni; Darmora, Smita; Dassoulas, James; Dattagupta, Aparajita; Davey, Will; David, Claire; Davidek, Tomas; Davies, Merlin; Davison, Peter; Davygora, Yuriy; Dawe, Edmund; Dawson, Ian; Daya-Ishmukhametova, Rozmin; De, Kaushik; de Asmundis, Riccardo; De Benedetti, Abraham; De Castro, Stefano; De Cecco, Sandro; De Groot, Nicolo; de Jong, Paul; De la Torre, Hector; De Lorenzi, Francesco; De Pedis, Daniele; De Salvo, Alessandro; De Sanctis, Umberto; De Santo, Antonella; De Vivie De Regie, Jean-Baptiste; Dearnaley, William James; Debbe, Ramiro; Debenedetti, Chiara; Dedovich, Dmitri; Deigaard, Ingrid; Del Peso, Jose; Del Prete, Tarcisio; Delgove, David; Deliot, Frederic; Delitzsch, Chris Malena; Deliyergiyev, Maksym; Dell'Acqua, Andrea; Dell'Asta, Lidia; Dell'Orso, Mauro; Della Pietra, Massimo; della Volpe, Domenico; Delmastro, Marco; Delsart, Pierre-Antoine; Deluca, Carolina; DeMarco, David; Demers, Sarah; Demichev, Mikhail; Demilly, Aurelien; Denisov, Sergey; Denysiuk, Denys; Derendarz, Dominik; Derkaoui, Jamal Eddine; Derue, Frederic; Dervan, Paul; Desch, Klaus Kurt; Deterre, Cecile; Dette, Karola; Deviveiros, Pier-Olivier; Dewhurst, Alastair; Dhaliwal, Saminder; Di Ciaccio, Anna; Di Ciaccio, Lucia; Di Clemente, William Kennedy; Di Domenico, Antonio; Di Donato, Camilla; Di Girolamo, Alessandro; Di Girolamo, Beniamino; Di Mattia, Alessandro; Di Micco, Biagio; Di Nardo, Roberto; Di Simone, Andrea; Di Sipio, Riccardo; Di Valentino, David; Diaconu, Cristinel; Diamond, Miriam; Dias, Flavia; Diaz, Marco Aurelio; Diehl, Edward; Dietrich, Janet; Diglio, Sara; Dimitrievska, Aleksandra; Dingfelder, Jochen; Dita, Petre; Dita, Sanda; Dittus, Fridolin; Djama, Fares; Djobava, Tamar; Djuvsland, Julia Isabell; Barros do Vale, Maria Aline; Dobos, Daniel; Dobre, Monica; Doglioni, Caterina; Dohmae, Takeshi; Dolejsi, Jiri; Dolezal, Zdenek; Dolgoshein, Boris; Donadelli, Marisilvia; Donati, Simone; Dondero, Paolo; Donini, Julien; Dopke, Jens; Doria, Alessandra; Dova, Maria-Teresa; Doyle, Tony; Drechsler, Eric; Dris, Manolis; Du, Yanyan; Duarte-Campderros, Jorge; Duchovni, Ehud; Duckeck, Guenter; Ducu, Otilia Anamaria; Duda, Dominik; Dudarev, Alexey; Duflot, Laurent; Duguid, Liam; Dührssen, Michael; Dunford, Monica; Duran Yildiz, Hatice; Düren, Michael; Durglishvili, Archil; Duschinger, Dirk; Dutta, Baishali; Dyndal, Mateusz; Eckardt, Christoph; Ecker, Katharina Maria; Edgar, Ryan Christopher; Edson, William; Edwards, Nicholas Charles; Eifert, Till; Eigen, Gerald; Einsweiler, Kevin; Ekelof, Tord; El Kacimi, Mohamed; Ellajosyula, Venugopal; Ellert, Mattias; Elles, Sabine; Ellinghaus, Frank; Elliot, Alison; Ellis, Nicolas; Elmsheuser, Johannes; Elsing, Markus; Emeliyanov, Dmitry; Enari, Yuji; Endner, Oliver Chris; Endo, Masaki; Ennis, Joseph Stanford; Erdmann, Johannes; Ereditato, Antonio; Ernis, Gunar; Ernst, Jesse; Ernst, Michael; Errede, Steven; Ertel, Eugen; Escalier, Marc; Esch, Hendrik; Escobar, Carlos; Esposito, Bellisario; Etienvre, Anne-Isabelle; Etzion, Erez; Evans, Hal; Ezhilov, Alexey; Fabbri, Federica; Fabbri, Laura; Facini, Gabriel; Fakhrutdinov, Rinat; Falciano, Speranza; Falla, Rebecca Jane; Faltova, Jana; Fang, Yaquan; Fanti, Marcello; Farbin, Amir; Farilla, Addolorata; Farina, Christian; Farooque, Trisha; Farrell, Steven; Farrington, Sinead; Farthouat, Philippe; Fassi, Farida; Fassnacht, Patrick; Fassouliotis, Dimitrios; Faucci Giannelli, Michele; Favareto, Andrea; Fawcett, William James; Fayard, Louis; Fedin, Oleg; Fedorko, Wojciech; Feigl, Simon; Feligioni, Lorenzo; Feng, Cunfeng; Feng, Eric; Feng, Haolu; Fenyuk, Alexander; Feremenga, Last; Fernandez Martinez, Patricia; Fernandez Perez, Sonia; Ferrando, James; Ferrari, Arnaud; Ferrari, Pamela; Ferrari, Roberto; Ferreira de Lima, Danilo Enoque; Ferrer, Antonio; Ferrere, Didier; Ferretti, Claudio; Ferretto Parodi, Andrea; Fiedler, Frank; Filipčič, Andrej; Filipuzzi, Marco; Filthaut, Frank; Fincke-Keeler, Margret; Finelli, Kevin Daniel; Fiolhais, Miguel; Fiorini, Luca; Firan, Ana; Fischer, Adam; Fischer, Cora; Fischer, Julia; Fisher, Wade Cameron; Flaschel, Nils; Fleck, Ivor; Fleischmann, Philipp; Fletcher, Gareth Thomas; Fletcher, Gregory; Fletcher, Rob Roy MacGregor; Flick, Tobias; Floderus, Anders; Flores Castillo, Luis; Flowerdew, Michael; Forcolin, Giulio Tiziano; Formica, Andrea; Forti, Alessandra; Foster, Andrew Geoffrey; Fournier, Daniel; Fox, Harald; Fracchia, Silvia; Francavilla, Paolo; Franchini, Matteo; Francis, David; Franconi, Laura; Franklin, Melissa; Frate, Meghan; Fraternali, Marco; Freeborn, David; Fressard-Batraneanu, Silvia; Friedrich, Felix; Froidevaux, Daniel; Frost, James; Fukunaga, Chikara; Fullana Torregrosa, Esteban; Fusayasu, Takahiro; Fuster, Juan; Gabaldon, Carolina; Gabizon, Ofir; Gabrielli, Alessandro; Gabrielli, Andrea; Gach, Grzegorz; Gadatsch, Stefan; Gadomski, Szymon; Gagliardi, Guido; Gagnon, Louis Guillaume; Gagnon, Pauline; Galea, Cristina; Galhardo, Bruno; Gallas, Elizabeth; Gallop, Bruce; Gallus, Petr; Galster, Gorm Aske Gram Krohn; Gan, KK; Gao, Jun; Gao, Yanyan; Gao, Yongsheng; Garay Walls, Francisca; García, Carmen; García Navarro, José Enrique; Garcia-Sciveres, Maurice; Gardner, Robert; Garelli, Nicoletta; Garonne, Vincent; Gascon Bravo, Alberto; Gatti, Claudio; Gaudiello, Andrea; Gaudio, Gabriella; Gaur, Bakul; Gauthier, Lea; Gavrilenko, Igor; Gay, Colin; Gaycken, Goetz; Gazis, Evangelos; Gecse, Zoltan; Gee, Norman; Geich-Gimbel, Christoph; Geisler, Manuel Patrice; Gemme, Claudia; Genest, Marie-Hélène; Geng, Cong; Gentile, Simonetta; George, Simon; Gerbaudo, Davide; Gershon, Avi; Ghasemi, Sara; Ghazlane, Hamid; Ghneimat, Mazuza; Giacobbe, Benedetto; Giagu, Stefano; Giannetti, Paola; Gibbard, Bruce; Gibson, Stephen; Gignac, Matthew; Gilchriese, Murdock; Gillam, Thomas; Gillberg, Dag; Gilles, Geoffrey; Gingrich, Douglas; Giokaris, Nikos; Giordani, MarioPaolo; Giorgi, Filippo Maria; Giorgi, Francesco Michelangelo; Giraud, Pierre-Francois; Giromini, Paolo; Giugni, Danilo; Giuli, Francesco; Giuliani, Claudia; Giulini, Maddalena; Gjelsten, Børge Kile; Gkaitatzis, Stamatios; Gkialas, Ioannis; Gkougkousis, Evangelos Leonidas; Gladilin, Leonid; Glasman, Claudia; Glatzer, Julian; Glaysher, Paul; Glazov, Alexandre; Goblirsch-Kolb, Maximilian; Godlewski, Jan; Goldfarb, Steven; Golling, Tobias; Golubkov, Dmitry; Gomes, Agostinho; Gonçalo, Ricardo; Goncalves Pinto Firmino Da Costa, Joao; Gonella, Laura; Gongadze, Alexi; González de la Hoz, Santiago; Gonzalez Parra, Garoe; Gonzalez-Sevilla, Sergio; Goossens, Luc; Gorbounov, Petr Andreevich; Gordon, Howard; Gorelov, Igor; Gorini, Benedetto; Gorini, Edoardo; Gorišek, Andrej; Gornicki, Edward; Goshaw, Alfred; Gössling, Claus; Gostkin, Mikhail Ivanovitch; Goudet, Christophe Raymond; Goujdami, Driss; Goussiou, Anna; Govender, Nicolin; Gozani, Eitan; Graber, Lars; Grabowska-Bold, Iwona; Gradin, Per Olov Joakim; Grafström, Per; Gramling, Johanna; Gramstad, Eirik; Grancagnolo, Sergio; Gratchev, Vadim; Gray, Heather; Graziani, Enrico; Greenwood, Zeno Dixon; Grefe, Christian; Gregersen, Kristian; Gregor, Ingrid-Maria; Grenier, Philippe; Grevtsov, Kirill; Griffiths, Justin; Grillo, Alexander; Grimm, Kathryn; Grinstein, Sebastian; Gris, Philippe Luc Yves; Grivaz, Jean-Francois; Groh, Sabrina; Grohs, Johannes Philipp; Gross, Eilam; Grosse-Knetter, Joern; Grossi, Giulio Cornelio; Grout, Zara Jane; Guan, Liang; Guan, Wen; Guenther, Jaroslav; Guescini, Francesco; Guest, Daniel; Gueta, Orel; Guido, Elisa; Guillemin, Thibault; Guindon, Stefan; Gul, Umar; Gumpert, Christian; Guo, Jun; Guo, Yicheng; Gupta, Shaun; Gustavino, Giuliano; Gutierrez, Phillip; Gutierrez Ortiz, Nicolas Gilberto; Gutschow, Christian; Guyot, Claude; Gwenlan, Claire; Gwilliam, Carl; Haas, Andy; Haber, Carl; Hadavand, Haleh Khani; Haddad, Nacim; Hadef, Asma; Haefner, Petra; Hageböck, Stephan; Hajduk, Zbigniew; Hakobyan, Hrachya; Haleem, Mahsana; Haley, Joseph; Hall, David; Halladjian, Garabed; Hallewell, Gregory David; Hamacher, Klaus; Hamal, Petr; Hamano, Kenji; Hamilton, Andrew; Hamity, Guillermo Nicolas; Hamnett, Phillip George; Han, Liang; Hanagaki, Kazunori; Hanawa, Keita; Hance, Michael; Haney, Bijan; Hanke, Paul; Hanna, Remie; Hansen, Jørgen Beck; Hansen, Jorn Dines; Hansen, Maike Christina; Hansen, Peter Henrik; Hara, Kazuhiko; Hard, Andrew; Harenberg, Torsten; Hariri, Faten; Harkusha, Siarhei; Harrington, Robert; Harrison, Paul Fraser; Hartjes, Fred; Hasegawa, Makoto; Hasegawa, Yoji; Hasib, A; Hassani, Samira; Haug, Sigve; Hauser, Reiner; Hauswald, Lorenz; Havranek, Miroslav; Hawkes, Christopher; Hawkings, Richard John; Hawkins, Anthony David; Hayden, Daniel; Hays, Chris; Hays, Jonathan Michael; Hayward, Helen; Haywood, Stephen; Head, Simon; Heck, Tobias; Hedberg, Vincent; Heelan, Louise; Heim, Sarah; Heim, Timon; Heinemann, Beate; Heinrich, Jochen Jens; Heinrich, Lukas; Heinz, Christian; Hejbal, Jiri; Helary, Louis; Hellman, Sten; Helsens, Clement; Henderson, James; Henderson, Robert; Heng, Yang; Henkelmann, Steffen; Henriques Correia, Ana Maria; Henrot-Versille, Sophie; Herbert, Geoffrey Henry; Hernández Jiménez, Yesenia; Herten, Gregor; Hertenberger, Ralf; Hervas, Luis; Hesketh, Gavin Grant; Hessey, Nigel; Hetherly, Jeffrey Wayne; Hickling, Robert; Higón-Rodriguez, Emilio; Hill, Ewan; Hill, John; Hiller, Karl Heinz; Hillier, Stephen; Hinchliffe, Ian; Hines, Elizabeth; Hinman, Rachel Reisner; Hirose, Minoru; Hirschbuehl, Dominic; Hobbs, John; Hod, Noam; Hodgkinson, Mark; Hodgson, Paul; Hoecker, Andreas; Hoeferkamp, Martin; Hoenig, Friedrich; Hohlfeld, Marc; Hohn, David; Holmes, Tova Ray; Homann, Michael; Hong, Tae Min; Hooberman, Benjamin Henry; Hopkins, Walter; Horii, Yasuyuki; Horton, Arthur James; Hostachy, Jean-Yves; Hou, Suen; Hoummada, Abdeslam; Howard, Jacob; Howarth, James; Hrabovsky, Miroslav; Hristova, Ivana; Hrivnac, Julius; Hryn'ova, Tetiana; Hrynevich, Aliaksei; Hsu, Catherine; Hsu, Pai-hsien Jennifer; Hsu, Shih-Chieh; Hu, Diedi; Hu, Qipeng; Huang, Yanping; Hubacek, Zdenek; Hubaut, Fabrice; Huegging, Fabian; Huffman, Todd Brian; Hughes, Emlyn; Hughes, Gareth; Huhtinen, Mika; Hülsing, Tobias Alexander; Huseynov, Nazim; Huston, Joey; Huth, John; Iacobucci, Giuseppe; Iakovidis, Georgios; Ibragimov, Iskander; Iconomidou-Fayard, Lydia; Ideal, Emma; Idrissi, Zineb; Iengo, Paolo; Igonkina, Olga; Iizawa, Tomoya; Ikegami, Yoichi; Ikeno, Masahiro; Ilchenko, Iurii; Iliadis, Dimitrios; Ilic, Nikolina; Ince, Tayfun; Introzzi, Gianluca; Ioannou, Pavlos; Iodice, Mauro; Iordanidou, Kalliopi; Ippolito, Valerio; Irles Quiles, Adrian; Isaksson, Charlie; Ishino, Masaya; Ishitsuka, Masaki; Ishmukhametov, Renat; Issever, Cigdem; Istin, Serhat; Ito, Fumiaki; Iturbe Ponce, Julia Mariana; Iuppa, Roberto; Ivarsson, Jenny; Iwanski, Wieslaw; Iwasaki, Hiroyuki; Izen, Joseph; Izzo, Vincenzo; Jabbar, Samina; Jackson, Brett; Jackson, Matthew; Jackson, Paul; Jain, Vivek; Jakobi, Katharina Bianca; Jakobs, Karl; Jakobsen, Sune; Jakoubek, Tomas; Jamin, David Olivier; Jana, Dilip; Jansen, Eric; Jansky, Roland; Janssen, Jens; Janus, Michel; Jarlskog, Göran; Javadov, Namig; Javůrek, Tomáš; Jeanneau, Fabien; Jeanty, Laura; Jejelava, Juansher; Jeng, Geng-yuan; Jennens, David; Jenni, Peter; Jentzsch, Jennifer; Jeske, Carl; Jézéquel, Stéphane; Ji, Haoshuang; Jia, Jiangyong; Jiang, Hai; Jiang, Yi; Jiggins, Stephen; Jimenez Pena, Javier; Jin, Shan; Jinaru, Adam; Jinnouchi, Osamu; Johansson, Per; Johns, Kenneth; Johnson, William Joseph; Jon-And, Kerstin; Jones, Graham; Jones, Roger; Jones, Sarah; Jones, Tim; Jongmanns, Jan; Jorge, Pedro; Jovicevic, Jelena; Ju, Xiangyang; Juste Rozas, Aurelio; Köhler, Markus Konrad; Kaczmarska, Anna; Kado, Marumi; Kagan, Harris; Kagan, Michael; Kahn, Sebastien Jonathan; Kajomovitz, Enrique; Kalderon, Charles William; Kaluza, Adam; Kama, Sami; Kamenshchikov, Andrey; Kanaya, Naoko; Kaneti, Steven; Kantserov, Vadim; Kanzaki, Junichi; Kaplan, Benjamin; Kaplan, Laser Seymour; Kapliy, Anton; Kar, Deepak; Karakostas, Konstantinos; Karamaoun, Andrew; Karastathis, Nikolaos; Kareem, Mohammad Jawad; Karentzos, Efstathios; Karnevskiy, Mikhail; Karpov, Sergey; Karpova, Zoya; Karthik, Krishnaiyengar; Kartvelishvili, Vakhtang; Karyukhin, Andrey; Kasahara, Kota; Kashif, Lashkar; Kass, Richard; Kastanas, Alex; Kataoka, Yousuke; Kato, Chikuma; Katre, Akshay; Katzy, Judith; Kawade, Kentaro; Kawagoe, Kiyotomo; Kawamoto, Tatsuo; Kawamura, Gen; Kazama, Shingo; Kazanin, Vassili; Keeler, Richard; Kehoe, Robert; Keller, John; Kempster, Jacob Julian; Keoshkerian, Houry; Kepka, Oldrich; Kerševan, Borut Paul; Kersten, Susanne; Keyes, Robert; Khalil-zada, Farkhad; Khandanyan, Hovhannes; Khanov, Alexander; Kharlamov, Alexey; Khoo, Teng Jian; Khovanskiy, Valery; Khramov, Evgeniy; Khubua, Jemal; Kido, Shogo; Kim, Hee Yeun; Kim, Shinhong; Kim, Young-Kee; Kimura, Naoki; Kind, Oliver Maria; King, Barry; King, Matthew; King, Samuel Burton; Kirk, Julie; Kiryunin, Andrey; Kishimoto, Tomoe; Kisielewska, Danuta; Kiss, Florian; Kiuchi, Kenji; Kivernyk, Oleh; Kladiva, Eduard; Klein, Matthew Henry; Klein, Max; Klein, Uta; Kleinknecht, Konrad; Klimek, Pawel; Klimentov, Alexei; Klingenberg, Reiner; Klinger, Joel Alexander; Klioutchnikova, Tatiana; Kluge, Eike-Erik; Kluit, Peter; Kluth, Stefan; Knapik, Joanna; Kneringer, Emmerich; Knoops, Edith; Knue, Andrea; Kobayashi, Aine; Kobayashi, Dai; Kobayashi, Tomio; Kobel, Michael; Kocian, Martin; Kodys, Peter; Koffas, Thomas; Koffeman, Els; Kogan, Lucy Anne; Kohriki, Takashi; Koi, Tatsumi; Kolanoski, Hermann; Kolb, Mathis; Koletsou, Iro; Komar, Aston; Komori, Yuto; Kondo, Takahiko; Kondrashova, Nataliia; Köneke, Karsten; König, Adriaan; Kono, Takanori; Konoplich, Rostislav; Konstantinidis, Nikolaos; Kopeliansky, Revital; Koperny, Stefan; Köpke, Lutz; Kopp, Anna Katharina; Korcyl, Krzysztof; Kordas, Kostantinos; Korn, Andreas; Korol, Aleksandr; Korolkov, Ilya; Korolkova, Elena; Kortner, Oliver; Kortner, Sandra; Kosek, Tomas; Kostyukhin, Vadim; Kotov, Vladislav; Kotwal, Ashutosh; Kourkoumeli-Charalampidi, Athina; Kourkoumelis, Christine; Kouskoura, Vasiliki; Koutsman, Alex; Kowalewska, Anna Bozena; Kowalewski, Robert Victor; Kowalski, Tadeusz; Kozanecki, Witold; Kozhin, Anatoly; Kramarenko, Viktor; Kramberger, Gregor; Krasnopevtsev, Dimitriy; Krasny, Mieczyslaw Witold; Krasznahorkay, Attila; Kraus, Jana; Kravchenko, Anton; Kretz, Moritz; Kretzschmar, Jan; Kreutzfeldt, Kristof; Krieger, Peter; Krizka, Karol; Kroeninger, Kevin; Kroha, Hubert; Kroll, Joe; Kroseberg, Juergen; Krstic, Jelena; Kruchonak, Uladzimir; Krüger, Hans; Krumnack, Nils; Kruse, Amanda; Kruse, Mark; Kruskal, Michael; Kubota, Takashi; Kucuk, Hilal; Kuday, Sinan; Kuechler, Jan Thomas; Kuehn, Susanne; Kugel, Andreas; Kuger, Fabian; Kuhl, Andrew; Kuhl, Thorsten; Kukhtin, Victor; Kukla, Romain; Kulchitsky, Yuri; Kuleshov, Sergey; Kuna, Marine; Kunigo, Takuto; Kupco, Alexander; Kurashige, Hisaya; Kurochkin, Yurii; Kus, Vlastimil; Kuwertz, Emma Sian; Kuze, Masahiro; Kvita, Jiri; Kwan, Tony; Kyriazopoulos, Dimitrios; La Rosa, Alessandro; La Rosa Navarro, Jose Luis; La Rotonda, Laura; Lacasta, Carlos; Lacava, Francesco; Lacey, James; Lacker, Heiko; Lacour, Didier; Lacuesta, Vicente Ramón; Ladygin, Evgueni; Lafaye, Remi; Laforge, Bertrand; Lagouri, Theodota; Lai, Stanley; Lammers, Sabine; Lampl, Walter; Lançon, Eric; Landgraf, Ulrich; Landon, Murrough; Lang, Valerie Susanne; Lange, J örn Christian; Lankford, Andrew; Lanni, Francesco; Lantzsch, Kerstin; Lanza, Agostino; Laplace, Sandrine; Lapoire, Cecile; Laporte, Jean-Francois; Lari, Tommaso; Lasagni Manghi, Federico; Lassnig, Mario; Laurelli, Paolo; Lavrijsen, Wim; Law, Alexander; Laycock, Paul; Lazovich, Tomo; Lazzaroni, Massimo; Le Dortz, Olivier; Le Guirriec, Emmanuel; Le Menedeu, Eve; Le Quilleuc, Eloi; LeBlanc, Matthew Edgar; LeCompte, Thomas; Ledroit-Guillon, Fabienne Agnes Marie; Lee, Claire Alexandra; Lee, Shih-Chang; Lee, Lawrence; Lefebvre, Guillaume; Lefebvre, Michel; Legger, Federica; Leggett, Charles; Lehan, Allan; Lehmann Miotto, Giovanna; Lei, Xiaowen; Leight, William Axel; Leisos, Antonios; Leister, Andrew Gerard; Leite, Marco Aurelio Lisboa; Leitner, Rupert; Lellouch, Daniel; Lemmer, Boris; Leney, Katharine; Lenz, Tatjana; Lenzi, Bruno; Leone, Robert; Leone, Sandra; Leonidopoulos, Christos; Leontsinis, Stefanos; Lerner, Giuseppe; Leroy, Claude; Lesage, Arthur; Lester, Christopher; Levchenko, Mikhail; Levêque, Jessica; Levin, Daniel; Levinson, Lorne; Levy, Mark; Leyko, Agnieszka; Leyton, Michael; Li, Bing; Li, Haifeng; Li, Ho Ling; Li, Lei; Li, Liang; Li, Qi; Li, Shu; Li, Xingguo; Li, Yichen; Liang, Zhijun; Liao, Hongbo; Liberti, Barbara; Liblong, Aaron; Lichard, Peter; Lie, Ki; Liebal, Jessica; Liebig, Wolfgang; Limbach, Christian; Limosani, Antonio; Lin, Simon; Lin, Tai-Hua; Lindquist, Brian Edward; Lipeles, Elliot; Lipniacka, Anna; Lisovyi, Mykhailo; Liss, Tony; Lissauer, David; Lister, Alison; Litke, Alan; Liu, Bo; Liu, Dong; Liu, Hao; Liu, Hongbin; Liu, Jian; Liu, Jianbei; Liu, Kun; Liu, Lulu; Liu, Miaoyuan; Liu, Minghui; Liu, Yanlin; Liu, Yanwen; Livan, Michele; Lleres, Annick; Llorente Merino, Javier; Lloyd, Stephen; Lo Sterzo, Francesco; Lobodzinska, Ewelina; Loch, Peter; Lockman, William; Loebinger, Fred; Loevschall-Jensen, Ask Emil; Loew, Kevin Michael; Loginov, Andrey; Lohse, Thomas; Lohwasser, Kristin; Lokajicek, Milos; Long, Brian Alexander; Long, Jonathan David; Long, Robin Eamonn; Longo, Luigi; Looper, Kristina Anne; Lopes, Lourenco; Lopez Mateos, David; Lopez Paredes, Brais; Lopez Paz, Ivan; Lopez Solis, Alvaro; Lorenz, Jeanette; Lorenzo Martinez, Narei; Losada, Marta; Lösel, Philipp Jonathan; Lou, XinChou; Lounis, Abdenour; Love, Jeremy; Love, Peter; Lu, Haonan; Lu, Nan; Lubatti, Henry; Luci, Claudio; Lucotte, Arnaud; Luedtke, Christian; Luehring, Frederick; Lukas, Wolfgang; Luminari, Lamberto; Lundberg, Olof; Lund-Jensen, Bengt; Lynn, David; Lysak, Roman; Lytken, Else; Lyubushkin, Vladimir; Ma, Hong; Ma, Lian Liang; Ma, Yanhui; Maccarrone, Giovanni; Macchiolo, Anna; Macdonald, Calum Michael; Maček, Boštjan; Machado Miguens, Joana; Madaffari, Daniele; Madar, Romain; Maddocks, Harvey Jonathan; Mader, Wolfgang; Madsen, Alexander; Maeda, Junpei; Maeland, Steffen; Maeno, Tadashi; Maevskiy, Artem; Magradze, Erekle; Mahlstedt, Joern; Maiani, Camilla; Maidantchik, Carmen; Maier, Andreas Alexander; Maier, Thomas; Maio, Amélia; Majewski, Stephanie; Makida, Yasuhiro; Makovec, Nikola; Malaescu, Bogdan; Malecki, Pawel; Maleev, Victor; Malek, Fairouz; Mallik, Usha; Malon, David; Malone, Caitlin; Maltezos, Stavros; Malyshev, Vladimir; Malyukov, Sergei; Mamuzic, Judita; Mancini, Giada; Mandelli, Beatrice; Mandelli, Luciano; Mandić, Igor; Maneira, José; Manhaes de Andrade Filho, Luciano; Manjarres Ramos, Joany; Mann, Alexander; Mansoulie, Bruno; Mantifel, Rodger; Mantoani, Matteo; Manzoni, Stefano; Mapelli, Livio; Marceca, Gino; March, Luis; Marchiori, Giovanni; Marcisovsky, Michal; Marjanovic, Marija; Marley, Daniel; Marroquim, Fernando; Marsden, Stephen Philip; Marshall, Zach; Marti, Lukas Fritz; Marti-Garcia, Salvador; Martin, Brian Thomas; Martin, Tim; Martin, Victoria Jane; Martin dit Latour, Bertrand; Martinez, Mario; Martin-Haugh, Stewart; Martoiu, Victor Sorin; Martyniuk, Alex; Marx, Marilyn; Marzano, Francesco; Marzin, Antoine; Masetti, Lucia; Mashimo, Tetsuro; Mashinistov, Ruslan; Masik, Jiri; Maslennikov, Alexey; Massa, Ignazio; Massa, Lorenzo; Mastrandrea, Paolo; Mastroberardino, Anna; Masubuchi, Tatsuya; Mättig, Peter; Mattmann, Johannes; Maurer, Julien; Maxfield, Stephen; Maximov, Dmitriy; Mazini, Rachid; Mazza, Simone Michele; Mc Fadden, Neil Christopher; Mc Goldrick, Garrin; Mc Kee, Shawn Patrick; McCarn, Allison; McCarthy, Robert; McCarthy, Tom; McClymont, Laurie; McFarlane, Kenneth; Mcfayden, Josh; Mchedlidze, Gvantsa; McMahon, Steve; McPherson, Robert; Medinnis, Michael; Meehan, Samuel; Mehlhase, Sascha; Mehta, Andrew; Meier, Karlheinz; Meineck, Christian; Meirose, Bernhard; Mellado Garcia, Bruce Rafael; Meloni, Federico; Mengarelli, Alberto; Menke, Sven; Meoni, Evelin; Mercurio, Kevin Michael; Mergelmeyer, Sebastian; Mermod, Philippe; Merola, Leonardo; Meroni, Chiara; Merritt, Frank; Messina, Andrea; Metcalfe, Jessica; Mete, Alaettin Serhan; Meyer, Carsten; Meyer, Christopher; Meyer, Jean-Pierre; Meyer, Jochen; Meyer Zu Theenhausen, Hanno; Middleton, Robin; Miglioranzi, Silvia; Mijović, Liza; Mikenberg, Giora; Mikestikova, Marcela; Mikuž, Marko; Milesi, Marco; Milic, Adriana; Miller, David; Mills, Corrinne; Milov, Alexander; Milstead, David; Minaenko, Andrey; Minami, Yuto; Minashvili, Irakli; Mincer, Allen; Mindur, Bartosz; Mineev, Mikhail; Ming, Yao; Mir, Lluisa-Maria; Mistry, Khilesh; Mitani, Takashi; Mitrevski, Jovan; Mitsou, Vasiliki A; Miucci, Antonio; Miyagawa, Paul; Mjörnmark, Jan-Ulf; Moa, Torbjoern; Mochizuki, Kazuya; Mohapatra, Soumya; Mohr, Wolfgang; Molander, Simon; Moles-Valls, Regina; Monden, Ryutaro; Mondragon, Matthew Craig; Mönig, Klaus; Monk, James; Monnier, Emmanuel; Montalbano, Alyssa; Montejo Berlingen, Javier; Monticelli, Fernando; Monzani, Simone; Moore, Roger; Morange, Nicolas; Moreno, Deywis; Moreno Llácer, María; Morettini, Paolo; Mori, Daniel; Mori, Tatsuya; Morii, Masahiro; Morinaga, Masahiro; Morisbak, Vanja; Moritz, Sebastian; Morley, Anthony Keith; Mornacchi, Giuseppe; Morris, John; Mortensen, Simon Stark; Morvaj, Ljiljana; Mosidze, Maia; Moss, Josh; Motohashi, Kazuki; Mount, Richard; Mountricha, Eleni; Mouraviev, Sergei; Moyse, Edward; Muanza, Steve; Mudd, Richard; Mueller, Felix; Mueller, James; Mueller, Ralph Soeren Peter; Mueller, Thibaut; Muenstermann, Daniel; Mullen, Paul; Mullier, Geoffrey; Munoz Sanchez, Francisca Javiela; Murillo Quijada, Javier Alberto; Murray, Bill; Musheghyan, Haykuhi; Muskinja, Miha; Myagkov, Alexey; Myska, Miroslav; Nachman, Benjamin Philip; Nackenhorst, Olaf; Nadal, Jordi; Nagai, Koichi; Nagai, Ryo; Nagano, Kunihiro; Nagasaka, Yasushi; Nagata, Kazuki; Nagel, Martin; Nagy, Elemer; Nairz, Armin Michael; Nakahama, Yu; Nakamura, Koji; Nakamura, Tomoaki; Nakano, Itsuo; Namasivayam, Harisankar; Naranjo Garcia, Roger Felipe; Narayan, Rohin; Narrias Villar, Daniel Isaac; Naryshkin, Iouri; Naumann, Thomas; Navarro, Gabriela; Nayyar, Ruchika; Neal, Homer; Nechaeva, Polina; Neep, Thomas James; Nef, Pascal Daniel; Negri, Andrea; Negrini, Matteo; Nektarijevic, Snezana; Nellist, Clara; Nelson, Andrew; Nemecek, Stanislav; Nemethy, Peter; Nepomuceno, Andre Asevedo; Nessi, Marzio; Neubauer, Mark; Neumann, Manuel; Neves, Ricardo; Nevski, Pavel; Newman, Paul; Nguyen, Duong Hai; Nickerson, Richard; Nicolaidou, Rosy; Nicquevert, Bertrand; Nielsen, Jason; Nikiforov, Andriy; Nikolaenko, Vladimir; Nikolic-Audit, Irena; Nikolopoulos, Konstantinos; Nilsen, Jon Kerr; Nilsson, Paul; Ninomiya, Yoichi; Nisati, Aleandro; Nisius, Richard; Nobe, Takuya; Nodulman, Lawrence; Nomachi, Masaharu; Nomidis, Ioannis; Nooney, Tamsin; Norberg, Scarlet; Nordberg, Markus; Norjoharuddeen, Nurfikri; Novgorodova, Olga; Nowak, Sebastian; Nozaki, Mitsuaki; Nozka, Libor; Ntekas, Konstantinos; Nurse, Emily; Nuti, Francesco; O'grady, Fionnbarr; O'Neil, Dugan; O'Rourke, Abigail Alexandra; O'Shea, Val; Oakham, Gerald; Oberlack, Horst; Obermann, Theresa; Ocariz, Jose; Ochi, Atsuhiko; Ochoa, Ines; Ochoa-Ricoux, Juan Pedro; Oda, Susumu; Odaka, Shigeru; Ogren, Harold; Oh, Alexander; Oh, Seog; Ohm, Christian; Ohman, Henrik; Oide, Hideyuki; Okawa, Hideki; Okumura, Yasuyuki; Okuyama, Toyonobu; Olariu, Albert; Oleiro Seabra, Luis Filipe; Olivares Pino, Sebastian Andres; Oliveira Damazio, Denis; Olszewski, Andrzej; Olszowska, Jolanta; Onofre, António; Onogi, Kouta; Onyisi, Peter; Oram, Christopher; Oreglia, Mark; Oren, Yona; Orestano, Domizia; Orlando, Nicola; Orr, Robert; Osculati, Bianca; Ospanov, Rustem; Otero y Garzon, Gustavo; Otono, Hidetoshi; Ouchrif, Mohamed; Ould-Saada, Farid; Ouraou, Ahmimed; Oussoren, Koen Pieter; Ouyang, Qun; Ovcharova, Ana; Owen, Mark; Owen, Rhys Edward; Ozcan, Veysi Erkcan; Ozturk, Nurcan; Pachal, Katherine; Pacheco Pages, Andres; Padilla Aranda, Cristobal; Pagáčová, Martina; Pagan Griso, Simone; Paige, Frank; Pais, Preema; Pajchel, Katarina; Palacino, Gabriel; Palestini, Sandro; Palka, Marek; Pallin, Dominique; Palma, Alberto; Panagiotopoulou, Evgenia; Pandini, Carlo Enrico; Panduro Vazquez, William; Pani, Priscilla; Panitkin, Sergey; Pantea, Dan; Paolozzi, Lorenzo; Papadopoulou, Theodora; Papageorgiou, Konstantinos; Paramonov, Alexander; Paredes Hernandez, Daniela; Parker, Adam Jackson; Parker, Michael Andrew; Parker, Kerry Ann; Parodi, Fabrizio; Parsons, John; Parzefall, Ulrich; Pascuzzi, Vincent; Pasqualucci, Enrico; Passaggio, Stefano; Pastore, Fernanda; Pastore, Francesca; Pásztor, Gabriella; Pataraia, Sophio; Patel, Nikhul; Pater, Joleen; Pauly, Thilo; Pearce, James; Pearson, Benjamin; Pedersen, Lars Egholm; Pedersen, Maiken; Pedraza Lopez, Sebastian; Pedro, Rute; Peleganchuk, Sergey; Pelikan, Daniel; Penc, Ondrej; Peng, Cong; Peng, Haiping; Penwell, John; Peralva, Bernardo; Perego, Marta Maria; Perepelitsa, Dennis; Perez Codina, Estel; Perini, Laura; Pernegger, Heinz; Perrella, Sabrina; Peschke, Richard; Peshekhonov, Vladimir; Peters, Krisztian; Peters, Yvonne; Petersen, Brian; Petersen, Troels; Petit, Elisabeth; Petridis, Andreas; Petridou, Chariclia; Petroff, Pierre; Petrolo, Emilio; Petrov, Mariyan; Petrucci, Fabrizio; Pettersson, Nora Emilia; Peyaud, Alan; Pezoa, Raquel; Phillips, Peter William; Piacquadio, Giacinto; Pianori, Elisabetta; Picazio, Attilio; Piccaro, Elisa; Piccinini, Maurizio; Pickering, Mark Andrew; Piegaia, Ricardo; Pilcher, James; Pilkington, Andrew; Pin, Arnaud Willy J; Pina, João Antonio; Pinamonti, Michele; Pinfold, James; Pingel, Almut; Pires, Sylvestre; Pirumov, Hayk; Pitt, Michael; Plazak, Lukas; Pleier, Marc-Andre; Pleskot, Vojtech; Plotnikova, Elena; Plucinski, Pawel; Pluth, Daniel; Poettgen, Ruth; Poggioli, Luc; Pohl, David-leon; Polesello, Giacomo; Poley, Anne-luise; Policicchio, Antonio; Polifka, Richard; Polini, Alessandro; Pollard, Christopher Samuel; Polychronakos, Venetios; Pommès, Kathy; Pontecorvo, Ludovico; Pope, Bernard; Popeneciu, Gabriel Alexandru; Popovic, Dragan; Poppleton, Alan; Pospisil, Stanislav; Potamianos, Karolos; Potrap, Igor; Potter, Christina; Potter, Christopher; Poulard, Gilbert; Poveda, Joaquin; Pozdnyakov, Valery; Pozo Astigarraga, Mikel Eukeni; Pralavorio, Pascal; Pranko, Aliaksandr; Prell, Soeren; Price, Darren; Price, Lawrence; Primavera, Margherita; Prince, Sebastien; Proissl, Manuel; Prokofiev, Kirill; Prokoshin, Fedor; Protopopescu, Serban; Proudfoot, James; Przybycien, Mariusz; Puddu, Daniele; Puldon, David; Purohit, Milind; Puzo, Patrick; Qian, Jianming; Qin, Gang; Qin, Yang; Quadt, Arnulf; Quayle, William; Queitsch-Maitland, Michaela; Quilty, Donnchadha; Raddum, Silje; Radeka, Veljko; Radescu, Voica; Radhakrishnan, Sooraj Krishnan; Radloff, Peter; Rados, Pere; Ragusa, Francesco; Rahal, Ghita; Raine, John Andrew; Rajagopalan, Srinivasan; Rammensee, Michael; Rangel-Smith, Camila; Ratti, Maria Giulia; Rauscher, Felix; Rave, Stefan; Ravenscroft, Thomas; Raymond, Michel; Read, Alexander Lincoln; Readioff, Nathan Peter; Rebuzzi, Daniela; Redelbach, Andreas; Redlinger, George; Reece, Ryan; Reeves, Kendall; Rehnisch, Laura; Reichert, Joseph; Reisin, Hernan; Rembser, Christoph; Ren, Huan; Rescigno, Marco; Resconi, Silvia; Rezanova, Olga; Reznicek, Pavel; Rezvani, Reyhaneh; Richter, Robert; Richter, Stefan; Richter-Was, Elzbieta; Ricken, Oliver; Ridel, Melissa; Rieck, Patrick; Riegel, Christian Johann; Rieger, Julia; Rifki, Othmane; Rijssenbeek, Michael; Rimoldi, Adele; Rinaldi, Lorenzo; Ristić, Branislav; Ritsch, Elmar; Riu, Imma; Rizatdinova, Flera; Rizvi, Eram; Rizzi, Chiara; Robertson, Steven; Robichaud-Veronneau, Andree; Robinson, Dave; Robinson, James; Robson, Aidan; Roda, Chiara; Rodina, Yulia; Rodriguez Perez, Andrea; Rodriguez Rodriguez, Daniel; Roe, Shaun; Rogan, Christopher Sean; Røhne, Ole; Romaniouk, Anatoli; Romano, Marino; Romano Saez, Silvestre Marino; Romero Adam, Elena; Rompotis, Nikolaos; Ronzani, Manfredi; Roos, Lydia; Ros, Eduardo; Rosati, Stefano; Rosbach, Kilian; Rose, Peyton; Rosenthal, Oliver; Rossetti, Valerio; Rossi, Elvira; Rossi, Leonardo Paolo; Rosten, Jonatan; Rosten, Rachel; Rotaru, Marina; Roth, Itamar; Rothberg, Joseph; Rousseau, David; Royon, Christophe; Rozanov, Alexandre; Rozen, Yoram; Ruan, Xifeng; Rubbo, Francesco; Rubinskiy, Igor; Rud, Viacheslav; Rudolph, Matthew Scott; Rühr, Frederik; Ruiz-Martinez, Aranzazu; Rurikova, Zuzana; Rusakovich, Nikolai; Ruschke, Alexander; Russell, Heather; Rutherfoord, John; Ruthmann, Nils; Ryabov, Yury; Rybar, Martin; Rybkin, Grigori; Ryu, Soo; Ryzhov, Andrey; Saavedra, Aldo; Sabato, Gabriele; Sacerdoti, Sabrina; Sadrozinski, Hartmut; Sadykov, Renat; Safai Tehrani, Francesco; Saha, Puja; Sahinsoy, Merve; Saimpert, Matthias; Saito, Tomoyuki; Sakamoto, Hiroshi; Sakurai, Yuki; Salamanna, Giuseppe; Salamon, Andrea; Salazar Loyola, Javier Esteban; Salek, David; Sales De Bruin, Pedro Henrique; Salihagic, Denis; Salnikov, Andrei; Salt, José; Salvatore, Daniela; Salvatore, Pasquale Fabrizio; Salvucci, Antonio; Salzburger, Andreas; Sammel, Dirk; Sampsonidis, Dimitrios; Sanchez, Arturo; Sánchez, Javier; Sanchez Martinez, Victoria; Sandaker, Heidi; Sandbach, Ruth Laura; Sander, Heinz Georg; Sanders, Michiel; Sandhoff, Marisa; Sandoval, Carlos; Sandstroem, Rikard; Sankey, Dave; Sannino, Mario; Sansoni, Andrea; Santoni, Claudio; Santonico, Rinaldo; Santos, Helena; Santoyo Castillo, Itzebelt; Sapp, Kevin; Sapronov, Andrey; Saraiva, João; Sarrazin, Bjorn; Sasaki, Osamu; Sasaki, Yuichi; Sato, Koji; Sauvage, Gilles; Sauvan, Emmanuel; Savage, Graham; Savard, Pierre; Sawyer, Craig; Sawyer, Lee; Saxon, James; Sbarra, Carla; Sbrizzi, Antonio; Scanlon, Tim; Scannicchio, Diana; Scarcella, Mark; Scarfone, Valerio; Schaarschmidt, Jana; Schacht, Peter; Schaefer, Douglas; Schaefer, Ralph; Schaeffer, Jan; Schaepe, Steffen; Schaetzel, Sebastian; Schäfer, Uli; Schaffer, Arthur; Schaile, Dorothee; Schamberger, R Dean; Scharf, Veit; Schegelsky, Valery; Scheirich, Daniel; Schernau, Michael; Schiavi, Carlo; Schillo, Christian; Schioppa, Marco; Schlenker, Stefan; Schmieden, Kristof; Schmitt, Christian; Schmitt, Stefan; Schmitz, Simon; Schneider, Basil; Schnellbach, Yan Jie; Schnoor, Ulrike; Schoeffel, Laurent; Schoening, Andre; Schoenrock, Bradley Daniel; Schopf, Elisabeth; Schorlemmer, Andre Lukas; Schott, Matthias; Schovancova, Jaroslava; Schramm, Steven; Schreyer, Manuel; Schuh, Natascha; Schultens, Martin Johannes; Schultz-Coulon, Hans-Christian; Schulz, Holger; Schumacher, Markus; Schumm, Bruce; Schune, Philippe; Schwanenberger, Christian; Schwartzman, Ariel; Schwarz, Thomas Andrew; Schwegler, Philipp; Schweiger, Hansdieter; Schwemling, Philippe; Schwienhorst, Reinhard; Schwindling, Jerome; Schwindt, Thomas; Sciolla, Gabriella; Scuri, Fabrizio; Scutti, Federico; Searcy, Jacob; Seema, Pienpen; Seidel, Sally; Seiden, Abraham; Seifert, Frank; Seixas, José; Sekhniaidze, Givi; Sekhon, Karishma; Sekula, Stephen; Seliverstov, Dmitry; Semprini-Cesari, Nicola; Serfon, Cedric; Serin, Laurent; Serkin, Leonid; Sessa, Marco; Seuster, Rolf; Severini, Horst; Sfiligoj, Tina; Sforza, Federico; Sfyrla, Anna; Shabalina, Elizaveta; Shaikh, Nabila Wahab; Shan, Lianyou; Shang, Ruo-yu; Shank, James; Shapiro, Marjorie; Shatalov, Pavel; Shaw, Kate; Shaw, Savanna Marie; Shcherbakova, Anna; Shehu, Ciwake Yusufu; Sherwood, Peter; Shi, Liaoshan; Shimizu, Shima; Shimmin, Chase Owen; Shimojima, Makoto; Shiyakova, Mariya; Shmeleva, Alevtina; Shoaleh Saadi, Diane; Shochet, Mel; Shojaii, Seyedruhollah; Shrestha, Suyog; Shulga, Evgeny; Shupe, Michael; Sicho, Petr; Sidebo, Per Edvin; Sidiropoulou, Ourania; Sidorov, Dmitri; Sidoti, Antonio; Siegert, Frank; Sijacki, Djordje; Silva, José; Silverstein, Samuel; Simak, Vladislav; Simard, Olivier; Simic, Ljiljana; Simion, Stefan; Simioni, Eduard; Simmons, Brinick; Simon, Dorian; Simon, Manuel; Sinervo, Pekka; Sinev, Nikolai; Sioli, Maximiliano; Siragusa, Giovanni; Sivoklokov, Serguei; Sjölin, Jörgen; Sjursen, Therese; Skinner, Malcolm Bruce; Skottowe, Hugh Philip; Skubic, Patrick; Slater, Mark; Slavicek, Tomas; Slawinska, Magdalena; Sliwa, Krzysztof; Slovak, Radim; Smakhtin, Vladimir; Smart, Ben; Smestad, Lillian; Smirnov, Sergei; Smirnov, Yury; Smirnova, Lidia; Smirnova, Oxana; Smith, Matthew; Smith, Russell; Smizanska, Maria; Smolek, Karel; Snesarev, Andrei; Snidero, Giacomo; Snyder, Scott; Sobie, Randall; Socher, Felix; Soffer, Abner; Soh, Dart-yin; Sokhrannyi, Grygorii; Solans Sanchez, Carlos; Solar, Michael; Soldatov, Evgeny; Soldevila, Urmila; Solodkov, Alexander; Soloshenko, Alexei; Solovyanov, Oleg; Solovyev, Victor; Sommer, Philip; Son, Hyungsuk; Song, Hong Ye; Sood, Alexander; Sopczak, Andre; Sopko, Vit; Sorin, Veronica; Sosa, David; Sotiropoulou, Calliope Louisa; Soualah, Rachik; Soukharev, Andrey; South, David; Sowden, Benjamin; Spagnolo, Stefania; Spalla, Margherita; Spangenberg, Martin; Spanò, Francesco; Sperlich, Dennis; Spettel, Fabian; Spighi, Roberto; Spigo, Giancarlo; Spiller, Laurence Anthony; Spousta, Martin; St Denis, Richard Dante; Stabile, Alberto; Staerz, Steffen; Stahlman, Jonathan; Stamen, Rainer; Stamm, Soren; Stanecka, Ewa; Stanek, Robert; Stanescu, Cristian; Stanescu-Bellu, Madalina; Stanitzki, Marcel Michael; Stapnes, Steinar; Starchenko, Evgeny; Stark, Giordon; Stark, Jan; Staroba, Pavel; Starovoitov, Pavel; Staszewski, Rafal; Steinberg, Peter; Stelzer, Bernd; Stelzer, Harald Joerg; Stelzer-Chilton, Oliver; Stenzel, Hasko; Stewart, Graeme; Stillings, Jan Andre; Stockton, Mark; Stoebe, Michael; Stoicea, Gabriel; Stolte, Philipp; Stonjek, Stefan; Stradling, Alden; Straessner, Arno; Stramaglia, Maria Elena; Strandberg, Jonas; Strandberg, Sara; Strandlie, Are; Strauss, Michael; Strizenec, Pavol; Ströhmer, Raimund; Strom, David; Stroynowski, Ryszard; Strubig, Antonia; Stucci, Stefania Antonia; Stugu, Bjarne; Styles, Nicholas Adam; Su, Dong; Su, Jun; Subramaniam, Rajivalochan; Suchek, Stanislav; Sugaya, Yorihito; Suk, Michal; Sulin, Vladimir; Sultansoy, Saleh; Sumida, Toshi; Sun, Siyuan; Sun, Xiaohu; Sundermann, Jan Erik; Suruliz, Kerim; Susinno, Giancarlo; Sutton, Mark; Suzuki, Shota; Svatos, Michal; Swiatlowski, Maximilian; Sykora, Ivan; Sykora, Tomas; Ta, Duc; Taccini, Cecilia; Tackmann, Kerstin; Taenzer, Joe; Taffard, Anyes; Tafirout, Reda; Taiblum, Nimrod; Takai, Helio; Takashima, Ryuichi; Takeda, Hiroshi; Takeshita, Tohru; Takubo, Yosuke; Talby, Mossadek; Talyshev, Alexey; Tam, Jason; Tan, Kong Guan; Tanaka, Junichi; Tanaka, Reisaburo; Tanaka, Shuji; Tannenwald, Benjamin Bordy; Tapia Araya, Sebastian; Tapprogge, Stefan; Tarem, Shlomit; Tartarelli, Giuseppe Francesco; Tas, Petr; Tasevsky, Marek; Tashiro, Takuya; Tassi, Enrico; Tavares Delgado, Ademar; Tayalati, Yahya; Taylor, Aaron; Taylor, Geoffrey; Taylor, Pierre Thor Elliot; Taylor, Wendy; Teischinger, Florian Alfred; Teixeira-Dias, Pedro; Temming, Kim Katrin; Temple, Darren; Ten Kate, Herman; Teng, Ping-Kun; Teoh, Jia Jian; Tepel, Fabian-Phillipp; Terada, Susumu; Terashi, Koji; Terron, Juan; Terzo, Stefano; Testa, Marianna; Teuscher, Richard; Theveneaux-Pelzer, Timothée; Thomas, Juergen; Thomas-Wilsker, Joshuha; Thompson, Emily; Thompson, Paul; Thompson, Ray; Thompson, Stan; Thomsen, Lotte Ansgaard; Thomson, Evelyn; Thomson, Mark; Tibbetts, Mark James; Ticse Torres, Royer Edson; Tikhomirov, Vladimir; Tikhonov, Yury; Timoshenko, Sergey; Tipton, Paul; Tisserant, Sylvain; Todome, Kazuki; Todorov, Theodore; Todorova-Nova, Sharka; Tojo, Junji; Tokár, Stanislav; Tokushuku, Katsuo; Tolley, Emma; Tomlinson, Lee; Tomoto, Makoto; Tompkins, Lauren; Toms, Konstantin; Tong, Baojia(Tony); Torrence, Eric; Torres, Heberth; Torró Pastor, Emma; Toth, Jozsef; Touchard, Francois; Tovey, Daniel; Trefzger, Thomas; Tremblet, Louis; Tricoli, Alessandro; Trigger, Isabel Marian; Trincaz-Duvoid, Sophie; Tripiana, Martin; Trischuk, William; Trocmé, Benjamin; Trofymov, Artur; Troncon, Clara; Trottier-McDonald, Michel; Trovatelli, Monica; Truong, Loan; Trzebinski, Maciej; Trzupek, Adam; Tseng, Jeffrey; Tsiareshka, Pavel; Tsipolitis, Georgios; Tsirintanis, Nikolaos; Tsiskaridze, Shota; Tsiskaridze, Vakhtang; Tskhadadze, Edisher; Tsui, Ka Ming; Tsukerman, Ilya; Tsulaia, Vakhtang; Tsuno, Soshi; Tsybychev, Dmitri; Tudorache, Alexandra; Tudorache, Valentina; Tuna, Alexander Naip; Tupputi, Salvatore; Turchikhin, Semen; Turecek, Daniel; Turgeman, Daniel; Turra, Ruggero; Turvey, Andrew John; Tuts, Michael; Tyndel, Mike; Ucchielli, Giulia; Ueda, Ikuo; Ueno, Ryuichi; Ughetto, Michael; Ukegawa, Fumihiko; Unal, Guillaume; Undrus, Alexander; Unel, Gokhan; Ungaro, Francesca; Unno, Yoshinobu; Unverdorben, Christopher; Urban, Jozef; Urquijo, Phillip; Urrejola, Pedro; Usai, Giulio; Usanova, Anna; Vacavant, Laurent; Vacek, Vaclav; Vachon, Brigitte; Valderanis, Chrysostomos; Valdes Santurio, Eduardo; Valencic, Nika; Valentinetti, Sara; Valero, Alberto; Valery, Loic; Valkar, Stefan; Vallecorsa, Sofia; Valls Ferrer, Juan Antonio; Van Den Wollenberg, Wouter; Van Der Deijl, Pieter; van der Geer, Rogier; van der Graaf, Harry; van Eldik, Niels; van Gemmeren, Peter; Van Nieuwkoop, Jacobus; van Vulpen, Ivo; van Woerden, Marius Cornelis; Vanadia, Marco; Vandelli, Wainer; Vanguri, Rami; Vaniachine, Alexandre; Vankov, Peter; Vardanyan, Gagik; Vari, Riccardo; Varnes, Erich; Varol, Tulin; Varouchas, Dimitris; Vartapetian, Armen; Varvell, Kevin; Vasquez, Jared Gregory; Vazeille, Francois; Vazquez Schroeder, Tamara; Veatch, Jason; Veloce, Laurelle Maria; Veloso, Filipe; Veneziano, Stefano; Ventura, Andrea; Venturi, Manuela; Venturi, Nicola; Venturini, Alessio; Vercesi, Valerio; Verducci, Monica; Verkerke, Wouter; Vermeulen, Jos; Vest, Anja; Vetterli, Michel; Viazlo, Oleksandr; Vichou, Irene; Vickey, Trevor; Vickey Boeriu, Oana Elena; Viehhauser, Georg; Viel, Simon; Vigani, Luigi; Vigne, Ralph; Villa, Mauro; Villaplana Perez, Miguel; Vilucchi, Elisabetta; Vincter, Manuella; Vinogradov, Vladimir; Vittori, Camilla; Vivarelli, Iacopo; Vlachos, Sotirios; Vlasak, Michal; Vogel, Marcelo; Vokac, Petr; Volpi, Guido; Volpi, Matteo; von der Schmitt, Hans; von Toerne, Eckhard; Vorobel, Vit; Vorobev, Konstantin; Vos, Marcel; Voss, Rudiger; Vossebeld, Joost; Vranjes, Nenad; Vranjes Milosavljevic, Marija; Vrba, Vaclav; Vreeswijk, Marcel; Vuillermet, Raphael; Vukotic, Ilija; Vykydal, Zdenek; Wagner, Peter; Wagner, Wolfgang; Wahlberg, Hernan; Wahrmund, Sebastian; Wakabayashi, Jun; Walder, James; Walker, Rodney; Walkowiak, Wolfgang; Wallangen, Veronica; Wang, Chao; Wang, Chao; Wang, Fuquan; Wang, Haichen; Wang, Hulin; Wang, Jike; Wang, Jin; Wang, Kuhan; Wang, Rui; Wang, Song-Ming; Wang, Tan; Wang, Tingting; Wang, Xiaoxiao; Wanotayaroj, Chaowaroj; Warburton, Andreas; Ward, Patricia; Wardrope, David Robert; Washbrook, Andrew; Watkins, Peter; Watson, Alan; Watson, Ian; Watson, Miriam; Watts, Gordon; Watts, Stephen; Waugh, Ben; Webb, Samuel; Weber, Michele; Weber, Stefan Wolf; Webster, Jordan S; Weidberg, Anthony; Weinert, Benjamin; Weingarten, Jens; Weiser, Christian; Weits, Hartger; Wells, Phillippa; Wenaus, Torre; Wengler, Thorsten; Wenig, Siegfried; Wermes, Norbert; Werner, Matthias; Werner, Per; Wessels, Martin; Wetter, Jeffrey; Whalen, Kathleen; Whallon, Nikola Lazar; Wharton, Andrew Mark; White, Andrew; White, Martin; White, Ryan; White, Sebastian; Whiteson, Daniel; Wickens, Fred; Wiedenmann, Werner; Wielers, Monika; Wienemann, Peter; Wiglesworth, Craig; Wiik-Fuchs, Liv Antje Mari; Wildauer, Andreas; Wilk, Fabian; Wilkens, Henric George; Williams, Hugh; Williams, Sarah; Willis, Christopher; Willocq, Stephane; Wilson, John; Wingerter-Seez, Isabelle; Winklmeier, Frank; Winston, Oliver James; Winter, Benedict Tobias; Wittgen, Matthias; Wittkowski, Josephine; Wollstadt, Simon Jakob; Wolter, Marcin Wladyslaw; Wolters, Helmut; Wosiek, Barbara; Wotschack, Jorg; Woudstra, Martin; Wozniak, Krzysztof; Wu, Mengqing; Wu, Miles; Wu, Sau Lan; Wu, Xin; Wu, Yusheng; Wyatt, Terry Richard; Wynne, Benjamin; Xella, Stefania; Xu, Da; Xu, Lailin; Yabsley, Bruce; Yacoob, Sahal; Yakabe, Ryota; Yamaguchi, Daiki; Yamaguchi, Yohei; Yamamoto, Akira; Yamamoto, Shimpei; Yamanaka, Takashi; Yamauchi, Katsuya; Yamazaki, Yuji; Yan, Zhen; Yang, Haijun; Yang, Hongtao; Yang, Yi; Yang, Zongchang; Yao, Weiming; Yap, Yee Chinn; Yasu, Yoshiji; Yatsenko, Elena; Yau Wong, Kaven Henry; Ye, Jingbo; Ye, Shuwei; Yeletskikh, Ivan; Yen, Andy L; Yildirim, Eda; Yorita, Kohei; Yoshida, Rikutaro; Yoshihara, Keisuke; Young, Charles; Young, Christopher John; Youssef, Saul; Yu, David Ren-Hwa; Yu, Jaehoon; Yu, Jiaming; Yu, Jie; Yuan, Li; Yuen, Stephanie P; Yusuff, Imran; Zabinski, Bartlomiej; Zaidan, Remi; Zaitsev, Alexander; Zakharchuk, Nataliia; Zalieckas, Justas; Zaman, Aungshuman; Zambito, Stefano; Zanello, Lucia; Zanzi, Daniele; Zeitnitz, Christian; Zeman, Martin; Zemla, Andrzej; Zeng, Jian Cong; Zeng, Qi; Zengel, Keith; Zenin, Oleg; Ženiš, Tibor; Zerwas, Dirk; Zhang, Dongliang; Zhang, Fangzhou; Zhang, Guangyi; Zhang, Huijun; Zhang, Jinlong; Zhang, Lei; Zhang, Rui; Zhang, Ruiqi; Zhang, Xueyao; Zhang, Zhiqing; Zhao, Xiandong; Zhao, Yongke; Zhao, Zhengguo; Zhemchugov, Alexey; Zhong, Jiahang; Zhou, Bing; Zhou, Chen; Zhou, Lei; Zhou, Li; Zhou, Mingliang; Zhou, Ning; Zhu, Cheng Guang; Zhu, Hongbo; Zhu, Junjie; Zhu, Yingchun; Zhuang, Xuai; Zhukov, Konstantin; Zibell, Andre; Zieminska, Daria; Zimine, Nikolai; Zimmermann, Christoph; Zimmermann, Stephanie; Zinonos, Zinonas; Zinser, Markus; Ziolkowski, Michael; Živković, Lidija; Zobernig, Georg; Zoccoli, Antonio; zur Nedden, Martin; Zurzolo, Giovanni; Zwalinski, Lukasz

2016-07-06

Event-shape observables measured using charged particles in inclusive $Z$-boson events are presented, using the electron and muon decay modes of the $Z$ bosons. The measurements are based on an integrated luminosity of $1.1 {\\rm fb}^{-1}$ of proton--proton collisions recorded by the ATLAS detector at the LHC at a centre-of-mass energy $\\sqrt{s}=7$ TeV. Charged-particle distributions, excluding the lepton--antilepton pair from the $Z$-boson decay, are measured in different ranges of transverse momentum of the $Z$ boson. Distributions include multiplicity, scalar sum of transverse momenta, beam thrust, transverse thrust, spherocity, and $\\mathcal{F}$-parameter, which are in particular sensitive to properties of the underlying event at small values of the $Z$-boson transverse momentum. The Sherpa event generator shows larger deviations from the measured observables than Pythia8 and Herwig7. Typically, all three Monte Carlo generators provide predictions that are in better agreement with the data at high $Z$-boso...

Connecting macroscopic observables and microscopic assembly events in amyloid formation using coarse grained simulations.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Noah S Bieler

Full Text Available The pre-fibrillar stages of amyloid formation have been implicated in cellular toxicity, but have proved to be challenging to study directly in experiments and simulations. Rational strategies to suppress the formation of toxic amyloid oligomers require a better understanding of the mechanisms by which they are generated. We report Dynamical Monte Carlo simulations that allow us to study the early stages of amyloid formation. We use a generic, coarse-grained model of an amyloidogenic peptide that has two internal states: the first one representing the soluble random coil structure and the second one the [Formula: see text]-sheet conformation. We find that this system exhibits a propensity towards fibrillar self-assembly following the formation of a critical nucleus. Our calculations establish connections between the early nucleation events and the kinetic information available in the later stages of the aggregation process that are commonly probed in experiments. We analyze the kinetic behaviour in our simulations within the framework of the theory of classical nucleated polymerisation, and are able to connect the structural events at the early stages in amyloid growth with the resulting macroscopic observables such as the effective nucleus size. Furthermore, the free-energy landscapes that emerge from these simulations allow us to identify pertinent properties of the monomeric state that could be targeted to suppress oligomer formation.

Comparison of different multi-objective calibration criteria using a conceptual rainfall-runoff model of flood events

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R. Moussa

2009-04-01

Full Text Available A conceptual lumped rainfall-runoff flood event model was developed and applied on the Gardon catchment located in Southern France and various single-objective and multi-objective functions were used for its calibration. The model was calibrated on 15 events and validated on 14 others. The results of both the calibration and validation phases are compared on the basis of their performance with regards to six criteria, three global criteria and three relative criteria representing volume, peakflow, and the root mean square error. The first type of criteria gives more weight to large events whereas the second considers all events to be of equal weight. The results show that the calibrated parameter values are dependent on the type of criteria used. Significant trade-offs are observed between the different objectives: no unique set of parameters is able to satisfy all objectives simultaneously. Instead, the solution to the calibration problem is given by a set of Pareto optimal solutions. From this set of optimal solutions, a balanced aggregated objective function is proposed, as a compromise between up to three objective functions. The single-objective and multi-objective calibration strategies are compared both in terms of parameter variation bounds and simulation quality. The results of this study indicate that two well chosen and non-redundant objective functions are sufficient to calibrate the model and that the use of three objective functions does not necessarily yield different results. The problems of non-uniqueness in model calibration, and the choice of the adequate objective functions for flood event models, emphasise the importance of the modeller's intervention. The recent advances in automatic optimisation techniques do not minimise the user's responsibility, who has to choose multiple criteria based on the aims of the study, his appreciation on the errors induced by data and model structure and his knowledge of the

Conceptual Modeling of Events as Information Objects and Change Agents

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bækgaard, Lars

as a totality of an information object and a change agent. When an event is modeled as an information object it is comparable to an entity that exists only at a specific point in time. It has attributes and can be used for querying and specification of constraints. When an event is modeled as a change agent...... it is comparable to an executable transaction schema. Finally, we briefly compare our approach to object-oriented approaches based on encapsulated objects....

A diffusive model for halo width growth during vertical displacement events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Eidietis, N.W.; Humphreys, D.A.

2011-01-01

The electromagnetic loads produced by halo currents during vertical displacement events (VDEs) impose stringent requirements on the strength of ITER in-vessel components. A predictive understanding of halo current evolution is essential for ensuring the robust design of these components. A significant factor determining that evolution is the plasma resistance, which is a function of three quantities: the resistivities of the core and halo regions, and the halo region width. A diffusive model of halo width growth during VDEs has been developed, which provides one part of a physics basis for predictive halo current simulations. The diffusive model was motivated by DIII-D observations that VDEs with cold post-thermal quench plasma and a current decay time much faster than the vertical motion (type I VDE) possess much wider halo region widths than warmer plasma VDEs, where the current decay is much slower than the vertical motion (type II). A 2D finite element code is used to model the diffusion of toroidal halo current during selected type I and type II DIII-D VDEs. The model assumes a core plasma region within the last closed flux surface (LCFS) diffusing current into a halo plasma filling the vessel outside the LCFS. LCFS motion and plasma temperature are prescribed from experimental observations. The halo width evolution produced by this model compares favourably with experimental measurements of type I and type II toroidal halo current width evolution.

Sulfate Formation Enhanced by a Cocktail of High NOx, SO2, Particulate Matter, and Droplet pH during Haze-Fog Events in Megacities in China: An Observation-Based Modeling Investigation.

Science.gov (United States)

Xue, Jian; Yuan, Zibing; Griffith, Stephen M; Yu, Xin; Lau, Alexis K H; Yu, Jian Zhen

2016-07-19

In recent years in a few Chinese megacities, fog events lasting one to a few days have been frequently associated with high levels of aerosol loading characterized by high sulfate (as high as 30 μg m(-3)), therefore termed as haze-fog events. The concomitant pollution characteristics include high gas-phase mixing ratios of SO2 (up to 71 ppbv) and NO2 (up to 69 ppbv), high aqueous phase pH (5-6), and smaller fog droplets (as low as 2 μm), resulting from intense emissions from fossil fuel combustion and construction activities supplying abundant Ca(2+). In this work, we use an observation-based model for secondary inorganic aerosols (OBM-SIA) to simulate sulfate formation pathways under conditions of haze-fog events encountered in Chinese megacities. The OBM analysis has identified, at a typical haze-fogwater pH of 5.6, the most important pathway to be oxidation of S(IV) by dissolved NO2, followed by the heterogeneous reaction of SO2 on the aerosol surface. The aqueous phase oxidation of S(IV) by H2O2 is a very minor formation pathway as a result of the high NOx conditions suppressing H2O2 formation. The model results indicate that the unique cocktail of high fogwater pH, high concentrations of NO2, SO2, and PM, and small fog droplets are capable of greatly enhancing sulfate formation. Such haze-fog conditions could lead to rapid sulfate production at night and subsequently high PM2.5 in the morning when the fog evaporates. Sulfate formation is simulated to be highly sensitive to fogwater pH, PM, and precursor gases NO2 and SO2. Such insights on major contributing factors imply that reduction of road dust and NOx emissions could lessen PM2.5 loadings in Chinese megacities during fog events.

Event-by-Event Simulations of Early Gluon Fields in High Energy Nuclear Collisions

Science.gov (United States)

Nickel, Matthew; Rose, Steven; Fries, Rainer

2017-09-01

Collisions of heavy ions are carried out at ultra relativistic speeds at the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider and the Large Hadron Collider to create Quark Gluon Plasma. The earliest stages of such collisions are dominated by the dynamics of classical gluon fields. The McLerran-Venugopalan (MV) model of color glass condensate provides a model for this process. Previous research has provided an analytic solution for event averaged observables in the MV model. Using the High Performance Research Computing Center (HPRC) at Texas A&M, we have developed a C++ code to explicitly calculate the initial gluon fields and energy momentum tensor event by event using the analytic recursive solution. The code has been tested against previously known analytic results up to fourth order. We have also have been able to test the convergence of the recursive solution at high orders in time and studied the time evolution of color glass condensate.

Spatio-Temporal Modeling of the Earth Events and Moving of Celestial Bodies

Science.gov (United States)

Bulatova, Natalia P.

2011-09-01

It is well known that periodical and cyclical movements of cosmic sources of gravitation considerably affect Earth's geospheres (atmosphere, hydrosphere, crust, etc.) by producing tides and related phenomena, as well as the state of tectonic blocks, lithosphere plates and deep crust fractures. The result of such influence may be earthquakes and other catastrophes. Nowadays, the question modeling of geophysical processes is considerably actual. Thus studies in area of Earth' sciences have been moved from practice of observation of separate phenomena to the systematic quantitative investigation in interdisciplinary areas. A system of two modules is proposed by the author each using its own system of coordinates: (1) the model of three-dimensional spherical body of the Earth with the system of coordinates (III) including the time of events that happened on the Earth and (2) a compact model of the relative motion of celestial bodies in space and time as vectors that are changing their directions. Note the data bases of the Earth sciences have been used to construct the module (1), while the module (2) has been built using astronomic parameters of celestial bodies. The module (2) is known as "Method of moving source" (MDS) [1, 2]. As a result, on the basis of systematization, joint analysis and complexity of cosmic data and databases of Earth sciences the cause-and-effect relations between events on Earth and space bodies are established.

Probabilistic attribution of individual unprecedented extreme events

Science.gov (United States)

Diffenbaugh, N. S.

2016-12-01

The last decade has seen a rapid increase in efforts to understand the influence of global warming on individual extreme climate events. Although trends in the distributions of climate observations have been thoroughly analyzed, rigorously quantifying the contribution of global-scale warming to individual events that are unprecedented in the observed record presents a particular challenge. This paper describes a method for leveraging observations and climate model ensembles to quantify the influence of historical global warming on the severity and probability of unprecedented events. This approach uses formal inferential techniques to quantify four metrics: (1) the contribution of the observed trend to the event magnitude, (2) the contribution of the observed trend to the event probability, (3) the probability of the observed trend in the current climate and a climate without human influence, and (4) the probability of the event magnitude in the current climate and a climate without human influence. Illustrative examples are presented, spanning a range of climate variables, timescales, and regions. These examples illustrate that global warming can influence the severity and probability of unprecedented extremes. In some cases - particularly high temperatures - this change is indicated by changes in the mean. However, changes in probability do not always arise from changes in the mean, suggesting that global warming can alter the frequency with which complex physical conditions co-occur. Because our framework is transparent and highly generalized, it can be readily applied to a range of climate events, regions, and levels of climate forcing.

Hydraulic description of a flood event with optical remote sensors: a constructive constraint on modelling uncertainties

Science.gov (United States)

Battiston, Stéphanie; Allenbach, Bernard

2010-05-01

compartments; high resolution optical imagery allow the exhaustive inventory of breaches and overflows; turbidity variations and draw-off give information on stream directions. These facts are of primary interest to help in deriving a firm understanding of the flooding processes, but also comprise a powerful source for the necessary parameterization and/or calibration of hydraulic models. Thus the accuracy of flood extents derived from remote sensing data could, on the one hand, be valuable inputs to historical flood info-bases within overall risk-linked databases, and on the other hand, test the validity of hydrological modelling, while helping to lift equifinality uncertainties. These first investigations highlight that space imagery of events constitutes an unrivalled tool for flood disaster observation. This 2D record is complementary to all field measurements and the integration of "space derived flood products" is valuable for all stages of risk management. This potential of EO optical sensors for flood monitoring is also confirmed in a detailed analysis making a qualitative and quantitative evaluation of the results, confronting ten optical and radar remote sensing platforms with field observations.

Statistical Property and Model for the Inter-Event Time of Terrorism Attacks

Science.gov (United States)

Zhu, Jun-Fang; Han, Xiao-Pu; Wang, Bing-Hong

2010-06-01

The inter-event time of terrorism attack events is investigated by empirical data and model analysis. Empirical evidence shows that it follows a scale-free property. In order to understand the dynamic mechanism of such a statistical feature, an opinion dynamic model with a memory effect is proposed on a two-dimensional lattice network. The model mainly highlights the role of individual social conformity and self-affirmation psychology. An attack event occurs when the order parameter indicating the strength of public opposition opinion is smaller than a critical value. Ultimately, the model can reproduce the same statistical property as the empirical data and gives a good understanding for the possible dynamic mechanism of terrorism attacks.

Event-Based Media Enrichment Using an Adaptive Probabilistic Hypergraph Model.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Xueliang; Wang, Meng; Yin, Bao-Cai; Huet, Benoit; Li, Xuelong

2015-11-01

Nowadays, with the continual development of digital capture technologies and social media services, a vast number of media documents are captured and shared online to help attendees record their experience during events. In this paper, we present a method combining semantic inference and multimodal analysis for automatically finding media content to illustrate events using an adaptive probabilistic hypergraph model. In this model, media items are taken as vertices in the weighted hypergraph and the task of enriching media to illustrate events is formulated as a ranking problem. In our method, each hyperedge is constructed using the K-nearest neighbors of a given media document. We also employ a probabilistic representation, which assigns each vertex to a hyperedge in a probabilistic way, to further exploit the correlation among media data. Furthermore, we optimize the hypergraph weights in a regularization framework, which is solved as a second-order cone problem. The approach is initiated by seed media and then used to rank the media documents using a transductive inference process. The results obtained from validating the approach on an event dataset collected from EventMedia demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

Challenges in the modeling of tidal disruption events lightcurves

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lodato G.

2012-12-01

Full Text Available In this contribution, I review the recent developments on the modeling of the lightcurve of tidal disruption events. Our understanding has evolved significantly from the earlier seminal results that imply a simple power-law decay of the bolometric light curve as t−5/3. We now know that the details of the rise to the peak of the lightcurve is determined mainly by the internal structure of the disrupted star. We also have improved models for the disc thermal emission, showing that in this case the decline of the luminosity with time should be much flatter than the standard t−5/3 law, especially in optical and UV wavelengths, while the X-ray lightcurve is generally best suited to track the bolometric one. Finally, we are just starting to explore the interesting general relativistic effects that might arise for such events, for which the tidal radius lies very close to the black hole event horizon.

Computational challenges in modeling gene regulatory events.

Science.gov (United States)

Pataskar, Abhijeet; Tiwari, Vijay K

2016-10-19

Cellular transcriptional programs driven by genetic and epigenetic mechanisms could be better understood by integrating "omics" data and subsequently modeling the gene-regulatory events. Toward this end, computational biology should keep pace with evolving experimental procedures and data availability. This article gives an exemplified account of the current computational challenges in molecular biology.

Observing a fictitious stressful event: haematological changes, including circulating leukocyte activation.

Science.gov (United States)

Mian, Rubina; Shelton-Rayner, Graham; Harkin, Brendan; Williams, Paul

2003-03-01

The aim of this study was to assess the effect of watching a psychological stressful event on the activation of leukocytes in healthy human volunteers. Blood samples were obtained from 32 healthy male and female subjects aged between 20 and 26 years before, during and after either watching an 83-minute horror film that none of the subjects had previously seen (The Texas Chainsaw Massacre, 1974) or by sitting quietly in a room (control group). Total differential cell counts, leukocyte activation as measured by the nitroblue tetrazolium (NBT) test, heart rate and blood pressure (BP) measurements were taken at defined time points. There were significant increases in peripheral circulating leukocytes, the number of activated circulating leukocytes, haemoglobin (Hb) concentration and haematocrit (Hct) in response to the stressor. These were accompanied by significant increases in heart rate, systolic and diastolic BP (P<0.05 from baseline). This is the first reported study on the effects of observing a psychologically stressful, albeit fictitious event on circulating leukocyte numbers and the state of leukocyte activation as determined by the nitrotetrazolium test.

Constraining supersymmetric models using Higgs physics, precision observables and direct searches

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zeune, Lisa

2014-08-01

principle be interpreted as the lightest or the second lightest CP-even Higgs in both models. We discuss mechanisms to enhance the tw o photon rate in the MSSM and the NMSSM. Within the framework of the MSSM, we fit the various Higgs decay rates as measured by the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) and the Tevatron experiments, including also low-energy observables, under the hypothesis that either the light or the heavy CP-even Higgs boson corresponds the observed signal. We find an overall good quality of the fits. For the interpretation of the observed Higgs as the light CP-even Higgs the fit quality in the MSSM is slightly better than in the SM. In the third part of this thesis we present a tool, called Fastlim, to calculate conservative limits on SUSY models from direct SUSY searches at the LHC. Experimentalists present their results from direct SUSY searches in simplified scenarios of more general models. The impact of their results on many other SUSY scenarios has not been investigated, so that the impact of the existing search limits on realistic SUSY scenarios is difficult to assess. Using Fastlim the results can be reinterpreted in other (less restricted) models without performing any Monte-Carlo event generation. The program reconstructs the visible cross section from pre-calculated efficiency and cross section tables for simplified event topologies. As an application of our tool we study the constraints from direct LHC searches on the parameter space of ''natural'' SUSY models.

Multiple flux rope events at the magnetopause observations by TC-1 on 18 March 2004

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C. J. Xiao

2005-11-01

Full Text Available From 23:10 to 23:50 UT on 18 March 2004, the Double Star TC-1 spacecraft detected eight flux ropes at the outbound crossing of the southern dawnside magnetopause. A notable guide field existed inside all ropes. In the mean time the Cluster spacecraft were staying in the magnetosheath and found that the events occurred under the condition of southward IMF Bz and dominant negative IMF By. There are six ropes that appeared quasi-periodically, with a repeated period being approximately 1-4 min. The last flux rope lasts for a longer time interval with a larger peak in the BN variations; it can thus be referred to as a typical FTE. The 18 March 2004 event is quite similar to the multiple flux rope event observed by Cluster on 26 January 2001 at the northern duskside high-latitude magnetopause. A detailed comparison of these two events is made in the paper. Preliminary studies imply that both of these multiple flux ropes events seem to be produced by component reconnection at the dayside low-latitude magnetopause.

Modelling the descent of nitric oxide during the elevated stratopause event of January 2013

Science.gov (United States)

Orsolini, Yvan J.; Limpasuvan, Varavut; Pérot, Kristell; Espy, Patrick; Hibbins, Robert; Lossow, Stefan; Raaholt Larsson, Katarina; Murtagh, Donal

2017-03-01

Using simulations with a whole-atmosphere chemistry-climate model nudged by meteorological analyses, global satellite observations of nitrogen oxide (NO) and water vapour by the Sub-Millimetre Radiometer instrument (SMR), of temperature by the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS), as well as local radar observations, this study examines the recent major stratospheric sudden warming accompanied by an elevated stratopause event (ESE) that occurred in January 2013. We examine dynamical processes during the ESE, including the role of planetary wave, gravity wave and tidal forcing on the initiation of the descent in the mesosphere-lower thermosphere (MLT) and its continuation throughout the mesosphere and stratosphere, as well as the impact of model eddy diffusion. We analyse the transport of NO and find the model underestimates the large descent of NO compared to SMR observations. We demonstrate that the discrepancy arises abruptly in the MLT region at a time when the resolved wave forcing and the planetary wave activity increase, just before the elevated stratopause reforms. The discrepancy persists despite doubling the model eddy diffusion. While the simulations reproduce an enhancement of the semi-diurnal tide following the onset of the 2013 SSW, corroborating new meteor radar observations at high northern latitudes over Trondheim (63.4°N), the modelled tidal contribution to the forcing of the mean meridional circulation and to the descent is a small portion of the resolved wave forcing, and lags it by about ten days.

AN OCCULTATION EVENT IN CENTAURUS A AND THE CLUMPY TORUS MODEL

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rivers, Elizabeth; Markowitz, Alex; Rothschild, Richard, E-mail: erivers@ucsd.edu [Center for Astrophysics and Space Sciences, University of California, San Diego, 9500 Gilman Drive, La Jolla, CA 92093-0424 (United States)

2011-12-15

We have analyzed 16 months of sustained monitoring observations of Centaurus A from the Rossi X-Ray Timing Explorer to search for changes in the absorbing column in the line of sight to the central nucleus. We present time-resolved spectroscopy which indicates that a discrete clump of material transited the line of sight to the central illuminating source over the course of {approx}170 days between 2010 August and 2011 February with a maximum increase in the column density of about 8.4 Multiplication-Sign 10{sup 22} cm{sup -2}. This is the best quality data of such an event that has ever been analyzed with the shape of the ingress and egress clearly seen. Modeling the clump of material as roughly spherical with a linearly decreasing density profile and assuming a distance from the central nucleus commensurate with the dusty torus, we found that the clump would have a diameter of (1.4-2.4) Multiplication-Sign 10{sup 15} cm with a central number density of n{sub H} = (1.8-3.0) Multiplication-Sign 10{sup 7} cm{sup -3}. This is consistent with previous results for a similar (though possibly much longer) occultation event inferred in this source in 2003-2004 and supports models of the molecular torus as a clumpy medium.

The First Simultaneous Microlensing Observations by Two Space Telescopes: Spitzer and Swift Reveal a Brown Dwarf in Event OGLE-2015-BLG-1319

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Shvartzvald, Y.; Li, Z.; Udalski, A.; Gould, A.; Sumi, T.; Street, R. A.; Calchi Novati, S.; Hundertmark, M.; Bozza, V.; Beichman, C.;

Rising cyclin-CDK levels order cell cycle events.

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Catherine Oikonomou

Full Text Available Diverse mitotic events can be triggered in the correct order and time by a single cyclin-CDK. A single regulator could confer order and timing on multiple events if later events require higher cyclin-CDK than earlier events, so that gradually rising cyclin-CDK levels can sequentially trigger responsive events: the "quantitative model" of ordering.This 'quantitative model' makes predictions for the effect of locking cyclin at fixed levels for a protracted period: at low cyclin levels, early events should occur rapidly, while late events should be slow, defective, or highly variable (depending on threshold mechanism. We titrated the budding yeast mitotic cyclin Clb2 within its endogenous expression range to a stable, fixed level and measured time to occurrence of three mitotic events: growth depolarization, spindle formation, and spindle elongation, as a function of fixed Clb2 level. These events require increasingly more Clb2 according to their normal order of occurrence. Events occur efficiently and with low variability at fixed Clb2 levels similar to those observed when the events normally occur. A second prediction of the model is that increasing the rate of cyclin accumulation should globally advance timing of all events. Moderate (<2-fold overexpression of Clb2 accelerates all events of mitosis, resulting in consistently rapid sequential cell cycles. However, this moderate overexpression also causes a significant frequency of premature mitoses leading to inviability, suggesting that Clb2 expression level is optimized to balance the fitness costs of variability and catastrophe.We conclude that mitotic events are regulated by discrete cyclin-CDK thresholds. These thresholds are sequentially triggered as cyclin increases, yielding reliable order and timing. In many biological processes a graded input must be translated into discrete outputs. In such systems, expression of the central regulator is likely to be tuned to an optimum level, as we

Strategies to Automatically Derive a Process Model from a Configurable Process Model Based on Event Data

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Mauricio Arriagada-Benítez

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Configurable process models are frequently used to represent business workflows and other discrete event systems among different branches of large organizations: they unify commonalities shared by all branches and describe their differences, at the same time. The configuration of such models is usually done manually, which is challenging. On the one hand, when the number of configurable nodes in the configurable process model grows, the size of the search space increases exponentially. On the other hand, the person performing the configuration may lack the holistic perspective to make the right choice for all configurable nodes at the same time, since choices influence each other. Nowadays, information systems that support the execution of business processes create event data reflecting how processes are performed. In this article, we propose three strategies (based on exhaustive search, genetic algorithms and a greedy heuristic that use event data to automatically derive a process model from a configurable process model that better represents the characteristics of the process in a specific branch. These strategies have been implemented in our proposed framework and tested in both business-like event logs as recorded in a higher educational enterprise resource planning system and a real case scenario involving a set of Dutch municipalities.

Self-Exciting Point Process Modeling of Conversation Event Sequences

Science.gov (United States)

Masuda, Naoki; Takaguchi, Taro; Sato, Nobuo; Yano, Kazuo

Self-exciting processes of Hawkes type have been used to model various phenomena including earthquakes, neural activities, and views of online videos. Studies of temporal networks have revealed that sequences of social interevent times for individuals are highly bursty. We examine some basic properties of event sequences generated by the Hawkes self-exciting process to show that it generates bursty interevent times for a wide parameter range. Then, we fit the model to the data of conversation sequences recorded in company offices in Japan. In this way, we can estimate relative magnitudes of the self excitement, its temporal decay, and the base event rate independent of the self excitation. These variables highly depend on individuals. We also point out that the Hawkes model has an important limitation that the correlation in the interevent times and the burstiness cannot be independently modulated.

Global observations of electromagnetic and particle energy flux for an event during northern winter with southward interplanetary magnetic field

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H. Korth

2008-06-01

Full Text Available The response of the polar ionosphere–thermosphere (I-T system to electromagnetic (EM energy input is fundamentally different to that from particle precipitation. To understand the I-T response to polar energy input one must know the intensities and spatial distributions of both EM and precipitation energy deposition. Moreover, since individual events typically display behavior different from statistical models, it is important to observe the global system state for specific events. We present an analysis of an event in Northern Hemisphere winter for sustained southward interplanetary magnetic field (IMF, 10 January 2002, 10:00–12:00 UT, for which excellent observations are available from the constellation of Iridium satellites, the SuperDARN radar network, and the Far-Ultraviolet (FUV instrument on the IMAGE satellite. Using data from these assets we determine the EM and particle precipitation energy fluxes to the Northern Hemisphere poleward of 60° MLAT and examine their spatial distributions and intensities. The accuracy of the global estimates are assessed quantitatively using comparisons with in-situ observations by DMSP along two orbit planes. While the location of EM power input evaluated from Iridium and SuperDARN data is in good agreement with DMSP, the magnitude estimated from DMSP observations is approximately four times larger. Corrected for this underestimate, the total EM power input to the Northern Hemisphere is 188 GW. Comparison of IMAGE FUV-derived distributions of the particle energy flux with DMSP plasma data indicates that the IMAGE FUV results similarly locate the precipitation accurately while underestimating the precipitation input somewhat. The total particle input is estimated to be 20 GW, nearly a factor of ten lower than the EM input. We therefore expect the thermosphere response to be determined primarily by the EM input even under winter conditions, and accurate assessment of the EM energy input is therefore key

Plasma Observations During the Mars Atmospheric Plume Event of March-April 2012

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Andrews, D. J.; Barabash, S.; Edberg, N. J. T.; Gurnett, D. A.; Hall, B. E. S.; Holmstrom, M.; Lester, M.; Morgan, D. D.; Opgenoorth, H. J.; Ramstad, R.;

New Physical Insights about Tidal Disruption Events from a Comprehensive Observational Inventory at X-Ray Wavelengths

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Auchettl, Katie [Center for Cosmology and Astro-Particle Physics, The Ohio State University, 191 West Woodruff Avenue, Columbus, OH 43210 (United States); Guillochon, James [Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, 60 Garden St., Cambridge, MA 02138 (United States); Ramirez-Ruiz, Enrico [Department of Astronomy and Astrophysics, University of California, Santa Cruz, CA 95064 (United States)

2017-04-01

We perform a comprehensive study of the X-ray emission from 70 transient sources that have been classified as tidal disruption events (TDEs) in the literature. We explore the properties of these candidates, using nearly three decades of X-ray observations to quantify their properties and characteristics. We find that the emission from X-ray TDEs increase by two to three orders of magnitude, compared to pre-flare constraints. These emissions evolve significantly with time, and decay with power-law indices that are typically shallower than the canonical t {sup −5/3} decay law, implying that X-ray TDEs are viscously delayed. These events exhibit enhanced (relative to galactic) column densities and are quite soft in nature, with no strong correlation between the amount of detected soft and hard emission. At their peak, jetted events have an X-ray to optical ratio ≫1, whereas non-jetted events have a ratio ∼1, which suggests that these events undergo reprocessing at different rates. X-ray TDEs have long T {sub 90} values, consistent with what would be expected from a viscously driven accretion disk formed by the disruption of a main-sequence star by a black hole with a mass <10{sup 7} M {sub ⊙}. The isotropic luminosities of X-ray TDEs are bimodal, such that jetted and non-jetted events are separated by a “reprocessing valley” that we suggest is naturally populated by optical/UV TDEs that most likely produce X-rays, but this emission is “veiled” from observations due to reprocessing. Our results suggest that non-jetted X-ray TDEs likely originate from partial disruptions and/or disruptions of low-mass stars.

Extreme weather and climate events with ecological relevance: a review.

Science.gov (United States)

Ummenhofer, Caroline C; Meehl, Gerald A

2017-06-19

Robust evidence exists that certain extreme weather and climate events, especially daily temperature and precipitation extremes, have changed in regard to intensity and frequency over recent decades. These changes have been linked to human-induced climate change, while the degree to which climate change impacts an individual extreme climate event (ECE) is more difficult to quantify. Rapid progress in event attribution has recently been made through improved understanding of observed and simulated climate variability, methods for event attribution and advances in numerical modelling. Attribution for extreme temperature events is stronger compared with other event types, notably those related to the hydrological cycle. Recent advances in the understanding of ECEs, both in observations and their representation in state-of-the-art climate models, open new opportunities for assessing their effect on human and natural systems. Improved spatial resolution in global climate models and advances in statistical and dynamical downscaling now provide climatic information at appropriate spatial and temporal scales. Together with the continued development of Earth System Models that simulate biogeochemical cycles and interactions with the biosphere at increasing complexity, these make it possible to develop a mechanistic understanding of how ECEs affect biological processes, ecosystem functioning and adaptation capabilities. Limitations in the observational network, both for physical climate system parameters and even more so for long-term ecological monitoring, have hampered progress in understanding bio-physical interactions across a range of scales. New opportunities for assessing how ECEs modulate ecosystem structure and functioning arise from better scientific understanding of ECEs coupled with technological advances in observing systems and instrumentation.This article is part of the themed issue 'Behavioural, ecological and evolutionary responses to extreme climatic events

Forecast of icing events at a wind farm in Sweden

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Davis, Neil; Hahmann, Andrea N.; Clausen, Niels-Erik

2014-01-01

This paper introduces a method for identifying icing events using a physical icing model, driven by atmospheric data from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, and applies it to a wind park in Sweden. Observed wind park icing events were identified by deviation from an idealized power...

High-cadence observations of spicular-type events on the Sun

Science.gov (United States)

Shetye, J.; Doyle, J. G.; Scullion, E.; Nelson, C. J.; Kuridze, D.; Henriques, V.; Woeger, F.; Ray, T.

2016-05-01

Context. Chromospheric observations taken at high-cadence and high-spatial resolution show a range of spicule-like features, including Type-I, Type-II (as well as rapid blue-shifted excursions (RBEs) and rapid red-shifted excursions (RREs) which are thought to be on-disk counterparts of Type-II spicules) and those which seem to appear within a few seconds, which if interpreted as flows would imply mass flow velocities in excess of 1000 km s-1. Aims: This article seeks to quantify and study rapidly appearing spicular-type events. We also compare the multi-object multi-frame blind deconvolution (MOMFBD) and speckle reconstruction techniques to understand if these spicules are more favourably observed using a particular technique. Methods: We use spectral imaging observations taken with the CRisp Imaging SpectroPolarimeter (CRISP) on the Swedish 1-m Solar Telescope. Data was sampled at multiple positions within the Hα line profile for both an on-disk and limb location. Results: The data is host to numerous rapidly appearing features which are observed at different locations within the Hα line profile. The feature's durations vary between 10-20 s and lengths around 3500 km. Sometimes, a time delay in their appearance between the blue and red wings of 3-5 s is evident, whereas, sometimes they are near simultaneous. In some instances, features are observed to fade and then re-emerge at the same location several tens of seconds later. Conclusions: We provide the first statistical analysis of these spicules and suggest that these observations can be interpreted as the line-of-sight (LOS) movement of highly dynamic spicules moving in and out of the narrow 60 mÅ transmission filter that is used to observe in different parts of the Hα line profile. The LOS velocity component of the observed fast chromospheric features, manifested as Doppler shifts, are responsible for their appearance in the red and blue wings of Hα line. Additional work involving data at other

Can discrete event simulation be of use in modelling major depression?

Science.gov (United States)

Le Lay, Agathe; Despiegel, Nicolas; François, Clément; Duru, Gérard

2006-12-05

Depression is among the major contributors to worldwide disease burden and adequate modelling requires a framework designed to depict real world disease progression as well as its economic implications as closely as possible. In light of the specific characteristics associated with depression (multiple episodes at varying intervals, impact of disease history on course of illness, sociodemographic factors), our aim was to clarify to what extent "Discrete Event Simulation" (DES) models provide methodological benefits in depicting disease evolution. We conducted a comprehensive review of published Markov models in depression and identified potential limits to their methodology. A model based on DES principles was developed to investigate the benefits and drawbacks of this simulation method compared with Markov modelling techniques. The major drawback to Markov models is that they may not be suitable to tracking patients' disease history properly, unless the analyst defines multiple health states, which may lead to intractable situations. They are also too rigid to take into consideration multiple patient-specific sociodemographic characteristics in a single model. To do so would also require defining multiple health states which would render the analysis entirely too complex. We show that DES resolve these weaknesses and that its flexibility allow patients with differing attributes to move from one event to another in sequential order while simultaneously taking into account important risk factors such as age, gender, disease history and patients attitude towards treatment, together with any disease-related events (adverse events, suicide attempt etc.). DES modelling appears to be an accurate, flexible and comprehensive means of depicting disease progression compared with conventional simulation methodologies. Its use in analysing recurrent and chronic diseases appears particularly useful compared with Markov processes.

Analysis of nucleation events in the European boundary layer using the regional aerosol–climate model REMO-HAM with a solar radiation-driven OH-proxy

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J.-P. Pietikäinen

2014-11-01

Full Text Available This work describes improvements in the regional aerosol–climate model REMO-HAM in order to simulate more realistically the process of atmospheric new particle formation (NPF. A new scheme was implemented to simulate OH radical concentrations using a proxy approach based on observations and also accounting for the effects of clouds upon OH concentrations. Second, the nucleation rate calculation was modified to directly simulate the formation rates of 3 nm particles, which removes some unnecessary steps in the formation rate calculations used earlier in the model. Using the updated model version, NPF over Europe was simulated for the periods 2003–2004 and 2008–2009. The statistics of the simulated particle formation events were subsequently compared to observations from 13 ground-based measurement sites. The new model shows improved agreement with the observed NPF rates compared to former versions and can simulate the event statistics realistically for most parts of Europe.

Data-assisted reduced-order modeling of extreme events in complex dynamical systems.

Science.gov (United States)

Wan, Zhong Yi; Vlachas, Pantelis; Koumoutsakos, Petros; Sapsis, Themistoklis

2018-01-01

The prediction of extreme events, from avalanches and droughts to tsunamis and epidemics, depends on the formulation and analysis of relevant, complex dynamical systems. Such dynamical systems are characterized by high intrinsic dimensionality with extreme events having the form of rare transitions that are several standard deviations away from the mean. Such systems are not amenable to classical order-reduction methods through projection of the governing equations due to the large intrinsic dimensionality of the underlying attractor as well as the complexity of the transient events. Alternatively, data-driven techniques aim to quantify the dynamics of specific, critical modes by utilizing data-streams and by expanding the dimensionality of the reduced-order model using delayed coordinates. In turn, these methods have major limitations in regions of the phase space with sparse data, which is the case for extreme events. In this work, we develop a novel hybrid framework that complements an imperfect reduced order model, with data-streams that are integrated though a recurrent neural network (RNN) architecture. The reduced order model has the form of projected equations into a low-dimensional subspace that still contains important dynamical information about the system and it is expanded by a long short-term memory (LSTM) regularization. The LSTM-RNN is trained by analyzing the mismatch between the imperfect model and the data-streams, projected to the reduced-order space. The data-driven model assists the imperfect model in regions where data is available, while for locations where data is sparse the imperfect model still provides a baseline for the prediction of the system state. We assess the developed framework on two challenging prototype systems exhibiting extreme events. We show that the blended approach has improved performance compared with methods that use either data streams or the imperfect model alone. Notably the improvement is more significant in

Data-assisted reduced-order modeling of extreme events in complex dynamical systems.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhong Yi Wan

Full Text Available The prediction of extreme events, from avalanches and droughts to tsunamis and epidemics, depends on the formulation and analysis of relevant, complex dynamical systems. Such dynamical systems are characterized by high intrinsic dimensionality with extreme events having the form of rare transitions that are several standard deviations away from the mean. Such systems are not amenable to classical order-reduction methods through projection of the governing equations due to the large intrinsic dimensionality of the underlying attractor as well as the complexity of the transient events. Alternatively, data-driven techniques aim to quantify the dynamics of specific, critical modes by utilizing data-streams and by expanding the dimensionality of the reduced-order model using delayed coordinates. In turn, these methods have major limitations in regions of the phase space with sparse data, which is the case for extreme events. In this work, we develop a novel hybrid framework that complements an imperfect reduced order model, with data-streams that are integrated though a recurrent neural network (RNN architecture. The reduced order model has the form of projected equations into a low-dimensional subspace that still contains important dynamical information about the system and it is expanded by a long short-term memory (LSTM regularization. The LSTM-RNN is trained by analyzing the mismatch between the imperfect model and the data-streams, projected to the reduced-order space. The data-driven model assists the imperfect model in regions where data is available, while for locations where data is sparse the imperfect model still provides a baseline for the prediction of the system state. We assess the developed framework on two challenging prototype systems exhibiting extreme events. We show that the blended approach has improved performance compared with methods that use either data streams or the imperfect model alone. Notably the improvement is more

Interpretation of Microseismicity Observed From Surface and Borehole Seismic Arrays During Hydraulic Fracturing in Shale - Bedding Plane Slip Model

Science.gov (United States)

Stanek, F.; Jechumtalova, Z.; Eisner, L.

2017-12-01

We present a geomechanical model explaining microseismicity induced by hydraulic fracturing in shales developed from many datasets acquired with two most common types of seismic monitoring arrays, surface and dual-borehole arrays. The geomechanical model explains the observed source mechanisms and locations of induced events from two stimulated shale reservoirs. We observe shear dip-slip source mechanisms with nodal planes aligned with location trends. We show that such seismicity can be explained as a shearing along bedding planes caused by aseismic opening of vertical hydraulic fractures. The source mechanism inversion was applied only to selected high-quality events with sufficient signal-to-noise ratio. We inverted P- and P- and S-wave arrival amplitudes to full-moment tensor and decomposed it to shear, volumetric and compensated linear vector dipole components. We also tested an effect of noise presented in the data to evaluate reliability of non-shear components. The observed seismicity from both surface and downhole monitoring of shale stimulations is very similar. The locations of induced microseismic events are limited to narrow depth intervals and propagate along distinct trend(s) showing fracture propagation in direction of maximum horizontal stress from injection well(s). The source mechanisms have a small non-shear component which can be partly explained as an effect of noise in the data, i.e. events represent shearing on faults. We observe predominantly dip-slip events with a strike of the steeper (almost vertical) nodal plane parallel to the fracture propagation. Therefore the other possible nodal plane is almost horizontal. The rake angles of the observed mechanisms divide these dip-slips into two groups with opposite polarities. It means that we observe opposite movements on the nearly identically oriented faults. Realizing a typical structural weakness of shale in horizontal planes, we interpret observed microseismicity as a result of shearing

Simulation of temperature extremes in the Tibetan Plateau from CMIP5 models and comparison with gridded observations

Science.gov (United States)

You, Qinglong; Jiang, Zhihong; Wang, Dai; Pepin, Nick; Kang, Shichang

2017-09-01

Understanding changes in temperature extremes in a warmer climate is of great importance for society and for ecosystem functioning due to potentially severe impacts of such extreme events. In this study, temperature extremes defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) from CMIP5 models are evaluated by comparison with homogenized gridded observations at 0.5° resolution across the Tibetan Plateau (TP) for 1961-2005. Using statistical metrics, the models have been ranked in terms of their ability to reproduce similar patterns in extreme events to the observations. Four CMIP5 models have good performance (BNU-ESM, HadGEM2-ES, CCSM4, CanESM2) and are used to create an optimal model ensemble (OME). Most temperature extreme indices in the OME are closer to the observations than in an ensemble using all models. Best performance is given for threshold temperature indices and extreme/absolute value indices are slightly less well modelled. Thus the choice of model in the OME seems to have more influences on temperature extreme indices based on thresholds. There is no significant correlation between elevation and modelled bias of the extreme indices for both the optimal/all model ensembles. Furthermore, the minimum temperature (Tmin) is significanlty positive correlations with the longwave radiation and cloud variables, respectively, but the Tmax fails to find the correlation with the shortwave radiation and cloud variables. This suggests that the cloud-radiation differences influence the Tmin in each CMIP5 model to some extent, and result in the temperature extremes based on Tmin.

Event-by-Event Hydrodynamics+Jet Energy Loss: A Solution to the R_{AA}⊗v_{2} Puzzle.

Science.gov (United States)

Noronha-Hostler, Jacquelyn; Betz, Barbara; Noronha, Jorge; Gyulassy, Miklos

2016-06-24

High p_{T}>10  GeV elliptic flow, which is experimentally measured via the correlation between soft and hard hadrons, receives competing contributions from event-by-event fluctuations of the low-p_{T} elliptic flow and event-plane angle fluctuations in the soft sector. In this Letter, a proper account of these event-by-event fluctuations in the soft sector, modeled via viscous hydrodynamics, is combined with a jet-energy-loss model to reveal that the positive contribution from low-p_{T} v_{2} fluctuations overwhelms the negative contributions from event-plane fluctuations. This leads to an enhancement of high-p_{T}>10  GeV elliptic flow in comparison to previous calculations and provides a natural solution to the decade-long high-p_{T} R_{AA}⊗v_{2} puzzle. We also present the first theoretical calculation of high-p_{T} v_{3}, which is shown to be compatible with current LHC data. Furthermore, we discuss how short-wavelength jet-medium physics can be deconvoluted from the physics of soft, bulk event-by-event flow observables using event-shape engineering techniques.

Observation of W associated single top (tW) production and search for FCNC in tZ events in proton-proton collisions

CERN Document Server

Benelli, Gabriele

2013-01-01

The first observation of the associated production of a single top quark and a $W$ boson in proton-proton collisions at $\\sqrt{s}$ = 8 TeV with the CMS experiment at the LHC is presented. The data correspond to an integrated luminosity of 12.2 $\\mathrm{fb^{-1}}$. The measurement is performed using events with two leptons and a jet originated from a b quark. A multivariate analysis based on kinematic properties is used to separate the signal from the $t\\bar{t}$ background. The signal is observed with a 6.0 standard deviation excess above a background only hypothesis.A production cross section of $23.4^{+5.5}_{-5.4}$ pb is measured, in agreement with the standard model expectation of $22.2\\pm1.5$ pb.\\\\A study of top-quark anomalous couplings is performed through the search for a single top-quark produced in association with a $Z$ boson. The event selection requires the presence of three isolated leptons, electrons or muons, and of at least one jet. The signal extraction is done using kinematic variables and i...

Abnormal Event Detection in Wireless Sensor Networks Based on Multiattribute Correlation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mengdi Wang

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Abnormal event detection is one of the vital tasks in wireless sensor networks. However, the faults of nodes and the poor deployment environment have brought great challenges to abnormal event detection. In a typical event detection technique, spatiotemporal correlations are collected to detect an event, which is susceptible to noises and errors. To improve the quality of detection results, we propose a novel approach for abnormal event detection in wireless sensor networks. This approach considers not only spatiotemporal correlations but also the correlations among observed attributes. A dependency model of observed attributes is constructed based on Bayesian network. In this model, the dependency structure of observed attributes is obtained by structure learning, and the conditional probability table of each node is calculated by parameter learning. We propose a new concept named attribute correlation confidence to evaluate the fitting degree between the sensor reading and the abnormal event pattern. On the basis of time correlation detection and space correlation detection, the abnormal events are identified. Experimental results show that the proposed algorithm can reduce the impact of interference factors and the rate of the false alarm effectively; it can also improve the accuracy of event detection.

A model of spreading of sudden events on social networks

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Jiao; Zheng, Muhua; Zhang, Zi-Ke; Wang, Wei; Gu, Changgui; Liu, Zonghua

2018-03-01

Information spreading has been studied for decades, but its underlying mechanism is still under debate, especially for those ones spreading extremely fast through the Internet. By focusing on the information spreading data of six typical events on Sina Weibo, we surprisingly find that the spreading of modern information shows some new features, i.e., either extremely fast or slow, depending on the individual events. To understand its mechanism, we present a susceptible-accepted-recovered model with both information sensitivity and social reinforcement. Numerical simulations show that the model can reproduce the main spreading patterns of the six typical events. By this model, we further reveal that the spreading can be speeded up by increasing either the strength of information sensitivity or social reinforcement. Depending on the transmission probability and information sensitivity, the final accepted size can change from continuous to discontinuous transition when the strength of the social reinforcement is large. Moreover, an edge-based compartmental theory is presented to explain the numerical results. These findings may be of significance on the control of information spreading in modern society.

Dynamic vegetation modeling of tropical biomes during Heinrich events

Science.gov (United States)

Handiani, Dian Noor; Paul, André; Dupont, Lydie M.

2010-05-01

Heinrich events are thought to be associated with a slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), which in turn would lead to a cooling of the North Atlantic Ocean and a warming of the South Atlantic Ocean (the "bipolar seesaw" hypothesis). The accompanying abrupt climate changes occurred not only in the ocean but also on the continents. Changes were strongest in the Northern Hemisphere but were registered in the tropics as well. Pollen data from Angola and Brazil showed that climate changes during Heinrich events affected vegetation patterns very differently in eastern South America and western Africa. To understand the differential response in the terrestrial tropics, we studied the vegetation changes during Heinrich events by using a dynamic global vegetation model (TRIFFID) as part of the University of Victoria (UVic) Earth System-Climate Model (ESCM). The model results show a bipolar seesaw pattern in temperature and precipitation during a near-collapse of the AMOC. The succession in plant-functional types (PFTs) showed changes from forest to shrubs to desert, including spreading desert in northwest Africa, retreating broadleaf trees in West Africa and northern South America, but advancing broadleaf trees in Brazil. The pattern is explained by a southward shift of the tropical rainbelt resulting in a strong decrease in precipitation over northwest and West Africa as well as in northern South America, but an increase in precipitation in eastern Brazil. To facilitate the comparison between modeled vegetation results with pollen data, we diagnosed the distribution of biomes from the PFT coverage and the simulated model climate. The biome distribution was computed for Heinrich event 1 and the Last Glacial Maximum as well as for pre-industrial conditions. We used a classification of biomes in terms of "mega-biomes", which were defined following a scheme originally proposed by BIOME 6000 (v 4.2). The biome distribution of the Sahel region

Modeling a Million-Node Slim Fly Network Using Parallel Discrete-Event Simulation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wolfe, Noah; Carothers, Christopher; Mubarak, Misbah; Ross, Robert; Carns, Philip

2016-05-15

As supercomputers close in on exascale performance, the increased number of processors and processing power translates to an increased demand on the underlying network interconnect. The Slim Fly network topology, a new lowdiameter and low-latency interconnection network, is gaining interest as one possible solution for next-generation supercomputing interconnect systems. In this paper, we present a high-fidelity Slim Fly it-level model leveraging the Rensselaer Optimistic Simulation System (ROSS) and Co-Design of Exascale Storage (CODES) frameworks. We validate our Slim Fly model with the Kathareios et al. Slim Fly model results provided at moderately sized network scales. We further scale the model size up to n unprecedented 1 million compute nodes; and through visualization of network simulation metrics such as link bandwidth, packet latency, and port occupancy, we get an insight into the network behavior at the million-node scale. We also show linear strong scaling of the Slim Fly model on an Intel cluster achieving a peak event rate of 36 million events per second using 128 MPI tasks to process 7 billion events. Detailed analysis of the underlying discrete-event simulation performance shows that a million-node Slim Fly model simulation can execute in 198 seconds on the Intel cluster.

Aggressive Event Incidence using the Staff Observation of Aggression Scale-Revised (SOAS-R): A Longitudinal Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Iennaco, Joanne DeSanto; Whittemore, Robin; Dixon, Jane

2017-09-01

The aim of this study was to identify aggressive event incidence rates in the inpatient psychiatric setting, describe characteristics of events and differences based on aggression target and type (verbal vs. physical). A longitudinal study was carried out of aggressive events identified by workers in four inpatient psychiatric units using the Staff Observation of Aggression Scale-Revised (SOAS-R) over 6 weeks. A total of 113 aggressive events were recorded resulting in a rate of 13.27 events per bed per year. Verbal aggression was demonstrated in 86 % and physical aggression in 57 % of events. Most events (70.8 %, n = 81) targeted a worker. Compared to other targets, workers were 3.4 times more likely to feel threatened (95 % CI 1.2-9.6, χ 2  = 5.08, p = 0.0242), and less likely to have a visible injury (OR 0.15, 95 % CI 0.04-0.6; χ 2  = 7.1, p = 0.0078). Event severity ranged from 0 to 21 with a mean of 9.5(SD = 5.1), with 20 % considered severe. Verbal events had lower mean severity of 6.5(SD = 3.8) versus physical events with a severity of 11.8(SD = 4.8; t = 6.5, df = 111, p Aggression incidence was similar to incidence found in other studies. Workers were the target of most aggressive events and many were identified as having no understandable provocation. Further understanding of event characteristics will promote more effective prevention and management of aggressive events.

OGLE-2016-BLG-0168 Binary Microlensing Event: Prediction and Confirmation of the Microlens Parallax Effect from Space-based Observations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Shin, I.-G.; Yee, J. C.; Jung, Y. K. [Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory, 60 Garden Street, Cambridge, MA 02138 (United States); Udalski, A.; Skowron, J.; Mróz, P.; Soszyński, I.; Poleski, R.; Szymański, M. K.; Kozłowski, S.; Pietrukowicz, P.; Ulaczyk, K.; Pawlak, M. [Warsaw University Observatory, Al. Ujazdowskie 4,00-478 Warszawa (Poland); Novati, S. Calchi [IPAC, Mail Code 100-22, California Institute of Technology, 1200 E. California Boulevard, Pasadena, CA 91125 (United States); Han, C. [Department of Physics, Chungbuk National University, Cheongju 371-763 (Korea, Republic of); Albrow, M. D. [University of Canterbury, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Private Bag 4800, Christchurch 8020 (New Zealand); Gould, A. [Department of Astronomy, Ohio State University, 140 W. 18th Avenue, Columbus, OH 43210 (United States); Chung, S.-J.; Hwang, K.-H.; Ryu, Y.-H. [Korea Astronomy and Space Science Institute, 776 Daedeokdae-ro, Yuseong-Gu, Daejeon 34055 (Korea, Republic of); Collaboration: OGLE Collaboration; KMTNet Group; Spitzer Team; and others

2017-11-01

The microlens parallax is a crucial observable for conclusively identifying the nature of lens systems in microlensing events containing or composed of faint (even dark) astronomical objects such as planets, neutron stars, brown dwarfs, and black holes. With the commencement of a new era of microlensing in collaboration with space-based observations, the microlens parallax can be routinely measured. In addition, space-based observations can provide opportunities to verify the microlens parallax measured from ground-only observations and to find a unique solution to the lensing light-curve analysis. Furthermore, since most space-based observations cannot cover the full light curves of lensing events, it is also necessary to verify the reliability of the information extracted from fragmentary space-based light curves. We conduct a test based on the microlensing event OGLE-2016-BLG-0168, created by a binary lens system consisting of almost equal mass M-dwarf stars, to demonstrate that it is possible to verify the microlens parallax and to resolve degeneracies using the space-based light curve even though the observations are fragmentary. Since space-based observatories will frequently produce fragmentary light curves due to their short observing windows, the methodology of this test will be useful for next-generation microlensing experiments that combine space-based and ground-based collaboration.

A Bayesian additive model for understanding public transport usage in special events.

Science.gov (United States)

Rodrigues, Filipe; Borysov, Stanislav; Ribeiro, Bernardete; Pereira, Francisco

2016-12-02

Public special events, like sports games, concerts and festivals are well known to create disruptions in transportation systems, often catching the operators by surprise. Although these are usually planned well in advance, their impact is difficult to predict, even when organisers and transportation operators coordinate. The problem highly increases when several events happen concurrently. To solve these problems, costly processes, heavily reliant on manual search and personal experience, are usual practice in large cities like Singapore, London or Tokyo. This paper presents a Bayesian additive model with Gaussian process components that combines smart card records from public transport with context information about events that is continuously mined from the Web. We develop an efficient approximate inference algorithm using expectation propagation, which allows us to predict the total number of public transportation trips to the special event areas, thereby contributing to a more adaptive transportation system. Furthermore, for multiple concurrent event scenarios, the proposed algorithm is able to disaggregate gross trip counts into their most likely components related to specific events and routine behavior. Using real data from Singapore, we show that the presented model outperforms the best baseline model by up to 26% in R2 and also has explanatory power for its individual components.

A model for measuring the environmental sustainability of events.

Science.gov (United States)

Boggia, Antonio; Massei, Gianluca; Paolotti, Luisa; Rocchi, Lucia; Schiavi, Federico

2018-01-15

Like all human activities, events can generate significant pressures on environmental resources, unless they are well-managed and monitored. Therefore, it is becoming more and more important to develop models that can measure their environmental sustainability. Although increasing attention is being paid to this sector, there is currently no standard protocol or method to assess the eco-sustainability of events. This article presents an innovative assessment procedure to measure the environmental sustainability of events. It is based on several indicators, combined by means of a multi-criteria approach and aggregated into a final index, which we called METER (Measuring Events Through Environmental Research). The METER index uses nine major operational categories, divided in sub-categories and detailed items, which cover all the main aspects concerning environmental sustainability of an event and are evaluated for all its phases, i.e. planning, organisation, implementation, post event. The index is fairly analytical, and is thus able to represent the numerous aspects to be taken into consideration in the environmental assessment of an event. At the same time, it is simple to apply and user-friendly, thanks to its graphics and effective communication of the web platform within it is implemented. Moreover, METER is based on a participatory approach using the bottom-up model and on the principle of subsidiarity. All official international documents regarding sustainable development now require subsidiarity. However, it is not being currently applied as part of any certification or with any evaluation tool. Therefore, although the index is still a prototype, it represents an innovation in the field of environmental management. A simple exemplary case is presented, about a European Spring School held at University of Perugia (Italy) in 2014, in which the application of METER showed a sustainability assessment score of 638 points out of 1000, with an excellent management

Bayesian Analysis for Risk Assessment of Selected Medical Events in Support of the Integrated Medical Model Effort

Science.gov (United States)

Gilkey, Kelly M.; Myers, Jerry G.; McRae, Michael P.; Griffin, Elise A.; Kallrui, Aditya S.

2012-01-01

The Exploration Medical Capability project is creating a catalog of risk assessments using the Integrated Medical Model (IMM). The IMM is a software-based system intended to assist mission planners in preparing for spaceflight missions by helping them to make informed decisions about medical preparations and supplies needed for combating and treating various medical events using Probabilistic Risk Assessment. The objective is to use statistical analyses to inform the IMM decision tool with estimated probabilities of medical events occurring during an exploration mission. Because data regarding astronaut health are limited, Bayesian statistical analysis is used. Bayesian inference combines prior knowledge, such as data from the general U.S. population, the U.S. Submarine Force, or the analog astronaut population located at the NASA Johnson Space Center, with observed data for the medical condition of interest. The posterior results reflect the best evidence for specific medical events occurring in flight. Bayes theorem provides a formal mechanism for combining available observed data with data from similar studies to support the quantification process. The IMM team performed Bayesian updates on the following medical events: angina, appendicitis, atrial fibrillation, atrial flutter, dental abscess, dental caries, dental periodontal disease, gallstone disease, herpes zoster, renal stones, seizure, and stroke.

Development of a new risk model for predicting cardiovascular events among hemodialysis patients: Population-based hemodialysis patients from the Japan Dialysis Outcome and Practice Patterns Study (J-DOPPS.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yukiko Matsubara

Full Text Available Cardiovascular (CV events are the primary cause of death and becoming bedridden among hemodialysis (HD patients. The Framingham risk score (FRS is useful for predicting incidence of CV events in the general population, but is considerd to be unsuitable for the prediction of the incidence of CV events in HD patients, given their characteristics due to atypical relationships between conventional risk factors and outcomes. We therefore aimed to develop a new prognostic prediction model for prevention and early detection of CV events among hemodialysis patients.We enrolled 3,601 maintenance HD patients based on their data from the Japan Dialysis Outcomes and Practice Patterns Study (J-DOPPS, phases 3 and 4. We longitudinaly assessed the association between several potential candidate predictors and composite CV events in the year after study initiation. Potential candidate predictors included the component factors of FRS and other HD-specific risk factors. We used multivariable logistic regression with backward stepwise selection to develop our new prediction model and generated a calibration plot. Additinially, we performed bootstrapping to assess the internal validity.We observed 328 composite CV events during 1-year follow-up. The final prediction model contained six variables: age, diabetes status, history of CV events, dialysis time per session, and serum phosphorus and albumin levels. The new model showed significantly better discrimination than the FRS, in both men (c-statistics: 0.76 for new model, 0.64 for FRS and women (c-statistics: 0.77 for new model, 0.60 for FRS. Additionally, we confirmed the consistency between the observed results and predicted results using the calibration plot. Further, we found similar discrimination and calibration to the derivation model in the bootstrapping cohort.We developed a new risk model consisting of only six predictors. Our new model predicted CV events more accurately than the FRS.

Coronal Fine Structure in Dynamic Events Observed by Hi-C

Science.gov (United States)

Winebarger, Amy; Schuler, Timothy

2013-01-01

The High-Resolution Coronal Imager (Hi-C) flew aboard a NASA sounding rocket on 2012 July 11 and captured roughly 345 s of high spatial and temporal resolution images of the solar corona in a narrowband 193 Angstrom channel. We have analyzed the fluctuations in intensity of Active Region 11520. We selected events based on a lifetime greater than 11 s (two Hi-C frames) and intensities greater than a threshold determined from the photon and readout noise. We compare the Hi-C events with those determined from AIA. We find that HI-C detects shorter and smaller events than AIA. We also find that the intensity increase in the Hi-C events is approx. 3 times greater than the intensity increase in the AIA events we conclude the events are related to linear sub-structure that is unresolved by AIA

Enhancement of thermal photon production in event-by-event hydrodynamics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chatterjee, Rupa; Holopainen, Hannu; Renk, Thorsten; Eskola, Kari J.

2011-01-01

Thermal photon emission is widely believed to reflect properties of the earliest, hottest evolution stage of the medium created in ultrarelativistic heavy-ion collisions. Previous computations of photon emission have been carried out using a hydrodynamical medium description with smooth, averaged initial conditions. Recently, more sophisticated hydrodynamical models that calculate observables by averaging over many evolutions with event-by-event fluctuating initial conditions (ICs) have been developed. Given their direct connection to the early time dynamics, thermal photon emission appears to be an ideal observable to probe fluctuations in the medium initial state. In this work, we demonstrate that including fluctuations in the ICs may lead to an enhancement of the thermal photon yield of about a factor of 2 in the region 2 T <4 GeV/c (where thermal photon production dominates the direct photon yield) compared to a scenario using smooth, averaged ICs. Consequently, a much better agreement with PHENIX data is found. This can be understood in terms of the strong temperature dependence of thermal photon production, translating into a sensitivity to the presence of hotspots in an event and thus establishing thermal photons as a suitable probe to characterize IC fluctuations.

Human event observations in the individual plant examinations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Forester, J. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States)

1995-04-01

A major objective of the Individual Plant Examination Insights Program is to identify the important determinants of core damage frequency for the different reactor and containment types and plant designs as indicated in the IPEs. The human reliability analysis is a critical component of the probabilistic risk assessments which were done for the IPEs. The determination and selection of human actions for incorporation into the event and fault tree models and the quantification of their failure probabilities can have an important impact on the resulting estimates of CDF and risk. Two important goals of the NRCs IPE Insights Program are (1) to determine the extent to which human actions and their corresponding failure probabilities influenced the results of the IPEs and (2) to identify which factors played significant roles in determining the differences and similarities in the results of the HRA analyses across the different plants. To obtain the relevant information, the NRC`s IPE database, which contains information on plant design, CDF, and containment performance obtained from the IPEs, was used in conjunction with a systematic examination of the HRA analyses and results from the IPEs. Regarding the extent to which the results of the HRA analyses were significant contributors to the plants` CDFs, examinations of several different measures indicated that while individual human actions could have important influences on CDF for particular initiators, the HRA results did not appear to be the most significant driver of plant risk. Another finding was that while there were relatively wide variations in the calculated human error probabilities for similar events across plants, there was no evidence for any systematic variation as a function of the HRA methods used in the analyses. Much of the variability in HEP values can be explained by differences in plant characteristics and sequence-specific factors. Details of these results and other findings are discussed.

Human event observations in the individual plant examinations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Forester, J.

1995-01-01

A major objective of the Individual Plant Examination Insights Program is to identify the important determinants of core damage frequency for the different reactor and containment types and plant designs as indicated in the IPEs. The human reliability analysis is a critical component of the probabilistic risk assessments which were done for the IPEs. The determination and selection of human actions for incorporation into the event and fault tree models and the quantification of their failure probabilities can have an important impact on the resulting estimates of CDF and risk. Two important goals of the NRCs IPE Insights Program are (1) to determine the extent to which human actions and their corresponding failure probabilities influenced the results of the IPEs and (2) to identify which factors played significant roles in determining the differences and similarities in the results of the HRA analyses across the different plants. To obtain the relevant information, the NRC's IPE database, which contains information on plant design, CDF, and containment performance obtained from the IPEs, was used in conjunction with a systematic examination of the HRA analyses and results from the IPEs. Regarding the extent to which the results of the HRA analyses were significant contributors to the plants' CDFs, examinations of several different measures indicated that while individual human actions could have important influences on CDF for particular initiators, the HRA results did not appear to be the most significant driver of plant risk. Another finding was that while there were relatively wide variations in the calculated human error probabilities for similar events across plants, there was no evidence for any systematic variation as a function of the HRA methods used in the analyses. Much of the variability in HEP values can be explained by differences in plant characteristics and sequence-specific factors. Details of these results and other findings are discussed

Human event observations in the individual plant examinations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Forester, J.

1995-01-01

A major objective of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's (NRC) Individual Plant Examination (IPE) Insights Program is to identify the important determinants of core damage frequency (CDF) for the different reactor and containment types and plant designs as indicated in the IPEs. The human reliability analysis (HRA) is a critical component of the probabilistic risk assessments (PRAS) which were done for the IPES. The determination and selection of human actions for incorporation into the event and fault tree models and the quantification of their failure probabilities can have an important impact on the resulting estimates of CDF and risk. Therefore, two important goals of the NRCs IPE Insights Program are (1) to determine the extent to which human actions and their corresponding failure probabilities influenced the results of the IPEs and (2) to identify which factors played significant roles in determining the differences and similarities in the results of the HRA analyses across the different plants. To obtain the relevant information, the NRC's IPE database, which contains information on plant design, CDF, and containment performance obtained from the IPES, was used in conjunction with a systematic examination of the HRA analyses and results from the IPES. Regarding the extent to which the results of the HRA analyses were significant contributors to the plants' CDFs, examinations of several different measures indicated that while individual human actions could have important influences on CDF for particular initiators, the HRA results did not appear to be the most significant driver of plant risk (CDF). Another finding was that while there were relatively wide variations in the calculated human error probabilities (HEPs) for similar events across plants, there was no evidence for any systematic variation as a function of the HRA methods used in the analyses

Observation of an event of pair photoproduction of charmed anti D0D0-mesons

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Adamovich, M.I.; Aleksandrov, Yu.A.; Bolta, J.M.; Bravo, L.; Cartacci, A.M.; Chernyavskii, M.M.; Conforto, B.; Conti, A.; Crosetti, G.; Dagliana, M.G.

1981-12-01

An event will be described which has been observed in an experiment on charmed particle production by labelled photons from the supersynchrotron of CERN. This event has been recorded simultaneously in nuclear photoemulsion and by the magnetic spectrometer Omega-prim. It has been interpreted as the first event of pair photoproduction of charmed neutral D 0 D 0 -mesons. For anti D 0 → K + π - π - π + , an intrinsic decay time of tau (anti D 0 ) = (0.14 +- 0.01) x 10 -13 sec has been obtained and for D 0 → anti K 0 tau - e + ν, two solutions have been obtained: tau 1 (D 0 ) = (3.4 +- 0.3) x 10 -13 sec and tau 2 (D 0 ) = (7.5 +- 0.3) x 10 -13 sec. (orig.)

The event-mixing technique for modeling the tt background in a search for supersymmetry in the Di-lepton channel

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schettler, Hannes

2013-09-01

In this thesis a search for Supersymmetry in the opposite-sign same-flavor di-lepton channel is presented. Data recorded by the CMS detector at the LHC accelerator corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 12.2 fb -1 at a center-of-mass energy of 8 TeV is analyzed. Events with at least two muons or two electrons with opposite charge, a significant transverse momentum imbalance, and at least one or at least two jets are selected. Supersymmetric particle decays are expected to form an edge-like structure in the di-lepton mass spectrum. The main background from Standard-Model processes is t anti t pair production. This background is estimated in a data-driven way using the event-mixing technique. Since event mixing is novel to estimate t anti t events, the method is validated in detail. In the analyzed data no significant excess w.r.t. the event-mixing prediction is observed. In a counting experiment as well as in a fit of the shape of the distribution the data is in agreement with the expectations from the Standard Model. Hence, exclusion limits are calculated in terms of number of events forming an edge in the di-lepton mass spectrum. Additionally, the results are interpreted within a simplified model spectrum, assuming direct gaugino production and a decay chainlike χ 2 0 →l ± l -+ →χ 1 0 l + l - . Limits are set on the masses of the supersymmetric particles. (orig.)

WAITING TIME DISTRIBUTION OF SOLAR ENERGETIC PARTICLE EVENTS MODELED WITH A NON-STATIONARY POISSON PROCESS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li, C.; Su, W.; Fang, C.; Zhong, S. J.; Wang, L.

2014-01-01

We present a study of the waiting time distributions (WTDs) of solar energetic particle (SEP) events observed with the spacecraft WIND and GOES. The WTDs of both solar electron events (SEEs) and solar proton events (SPEs) display a power-law tail of ∼Δt –γ . The SEEs display a broken power-law WTD. The power-law index is γ 1 = 0.99 for the short waiting times (<70 hr) and γ 2 = 1.92 for large waiting times (>100 hr). The break of the WTD of SEEs is probably due to the modulation of the corotating interaction regions. The power-law index, γ ∼ 1.82, is derived for the WTD of the SPEs which is consistent with the WTD of type II radio bursts, indicating a close relationship between the shock wave and the production of energetic protons. The WTDs of SEP events can be modeled with a non-stationary Poisson process, which was proposed to understand the waiting time statistics of solar flares. We generalize the method and find that, if the SEP event rate λ = 1/Δt varies as the time distribution of event rate f(λ) = Aλ –α exp (– βλ), the time-dependent Poisson distribution can produce a power-law tail WTD of ∼Δt α –3 , where 0 ≤ α < 2

Observation of galactic cosmic ray spallation events from the SoHO mission 20-Year operation of LASCO

Science.gov (United States)

Koutchmy, S.; Tavabi, E.; Urtado, O.

2018-05-01

A shower of secondary Cosmic Ray (CR) particles is produced at high altitudes in the Earth's atmosphere, so the primordial Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCRs) are never directly measured outside the Earth magnetosphere and atmosphere. They approach the Earth and other planets in the complex pattern of rigidity's dependence, generally excluded by the magnetosphere. GCRs revealed by images of single nuclear reactions also called spallation events are described here. Such an event was seen on Nov. 29, 2015 using a unique LASCO C3 space coronagraph routine image taken during the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SoHO) mission observing uninterruptedly at the Lagrangian L1 point. The spallation signature of a GCR identified well outside the Earth's magnetosphere is obtained for the 1st time. The resulting image includes different diverging linear "tracks" of varying intensity, leading to a single pixel; this frame identifies the site on the silicon CCD chip of the coronagraph camera. There was no solar flare reported at that time, nor Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) and no evidence of optical debris around the spacecraft. More examples of smaller CR events have been discovered through the 20 years of continuous observations from SoHO. This is the first spallation event from a CR, recorded outside the Earth's magnetosphere. We evaluate the probable energy of these events suggesting a plausible galactic source.

An Exponential Tilt Mixture Model for Time-to-Event Data to Evaluate Treatment Effect Heterogeneity in Randomized Clinical Trials.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Chi; Tan, Zhiqiang; Louis, Thomas A

2014-01-01

Evaluating the effect of a treatment on a time-to-event outcome is the focus of many randomized clinical trials. It is often observed that the treatment effect is heterogeneous, where only a subgroup of the patients may respond to the treatment due to some unknown mechanism such as genetic polymorphism. In this paper, we propose a semiparametric exponential tilt mixture model to estimate the proportion of patients who respond to the treatment and to assess the treatment effect. Our model is a natural extension of parametric mixture models to a semiparametric setting with a time-to-event outcome. We propose a nonparametric maximum likelihood estimation approach for inference and establish related asymptotic properties. Our method is illustrated by a randomized clinical trial on biodegradable polymer-delivered chemotherapy for malignant gliomas patients.

Satellite-Observed Black Water Events off Southwest Florida: Implications for Coral Reef Health in the Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Brian Lapointe

2013-01-01

Full Text Available A “black water” event, as observed from satellites, occurred off southwest Florida in 2012. Satellite observations suggested that the event started in early January and ended in mid-April 2012. The black water patch formed off central west Florida and advected southward towards Florida Bay and the Florida Keys with the shelf circulation, which was confirmed by satellite-tracked surface drifter trajectories. Compared with a previous black water event in 2002, the 2012 event was weaker in terms of spatial and temporal coverage. An in situ survey indicated that the 2012 black water patch contained toxic K. brevis and had relatively low CDOM (colored dissolved organic matter and turbidity but high chlorophyll-a concentrations, while salinity was somewhat high compared with historical values. Further analysis revealed that the 2012 black water was formed by the K. brevis bloom initiated off central west Florida in late September 2011, while river runoff, Trichodesmium and possibly submarine groundwater discharge also played important roles in its formation. Black water patches can affect benthic coral reef communities by decreasing light availability at the bottom, and enhanced nutrient concentrations from black water patches support massive macroalgae growth that can overgrow coral reefs. It is thus important to continue the integrated observations where satellites provide synoptic and repeated observations of such adverse water quality events.

Can discrete event simulation be of use in modelling major depression?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

François Clément

2006-12-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Depression is among the major contributors to worldwide disease burden and adequate modelling requires a framework designed to depict real world disease progression as well as its economic implications as closely as possible. Objectives In light of the specific characteristics associated with depression (multiple episodes at varying intervals, impact of disease history on course of illness, sociodemographic factors, our aim was to clarify to what extent "Discrete Event Simulation" (DES models provide methodological benefits in depicting disease evolution. Methods We conducted a comprehensive review of published Markov models in depression and identified potential limits to their methodology. A model based on DES principles was developed to investigate the benefits and drawbacks of this simulation method compared with Markov modelling techniques. Results The major drawback to Markov models is that they may not be suitable to tracking patients' disease history properly, unless the analyst defines multiple health states, which may lead to intractable situations. They are also too rigid to take into consideration multiple patient-specific sociodemographic characteristics in a single model. To do so would also require defining multiple health states which would render the analysis entirely too complex. We show that DES resolve these weaknesses and that its flexibility allow patients with differing attributes to move from one event to another in sequential order while simultaneously taking into account important risk factors such as age, gender, disease history and patients attitude towards treatment, together with any disease-related events (adverse events, suicide attempt etc.. Conclusion DES modelling appears to be an accurate, flexible and comprehensive means of depicting disease progression compared with conventional simulation methodologies. Its use in analysing recurrent and chronic diseases appears particularly useful

Event-by-event simulation of quantum phenomena

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Raedt, H. De; Raedt, K. De; Michielsen, K.; Landau, DP; Lewis, SP; Schuttler, HB

2006-01-01

In various basic experiments in quantum physics, observations are recorded event-by-event. The final outcome of such experiments can be computed according to the rules of quantum theory but quantum theory does not describe single events. In this paper, we describe a stimulation approach that does

Can Regional Climate Models be used in the assessment of vulnerability and risk caused by extreme events?

Science.gov (United States)

Nunes, Ana

2015-04-01

Extreme meteorological events played an important role in catastrophic occurrences observed in the past over densely populated areas in Brazil. This motived the proposal of an integrated system for analysis and assessment of vulnerability and risk caused by extreme events in urban areas that are particularly affected by complex topography. That requires a multi-scale approach, which is centered on a regional modeling system, consisting of a regional (spectral) climate model coupled to a land-surface scheme. This regional modeling system employs a boundary forcing method based on scale-selective bias correction and assimilation of satellite-based precipitation estimates. Scale-selective bias correction is a method similar to the spectral nudging technique for dynamical downscaling that allows internal modes to develop in agreement with the large-scale features, while the precipitation assimilation procedure improves the modeled deep-convection and drives the land-surface scheme variables. Here, the scale-selective bias correction acts only on the rotational part of the wind field, letting the precipitation assimilation procedure to correct moisture convergence, in order to reconstruct South American current climate within the South American Hydroclimate Reconstruction Project. The hydroclimate reconstruction outputs might eventually produce improved initial conditions for high-resolution numerical integrations in metropolitan regions, generating more reliable short-term precipitation predictions, and providing accurate hidrometeorological variables to higher resolution geomorphological models. Better representation of deep-convection from intermediate scales is relevant when the resolution of the regional modeling system is refined by any method to meet the scale of geomorphological dynamic models of stability and mass movement, assisting in the assessment of risk areas and estimation of terrain stability over complex topography. The reconstruction of past extreme

Erectile dysfunction and cardiovascular events in diabetic men: a meta-analysis of observational studies.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tomohide Yamada

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Several studies have shown that erectile dysfunction (ED influences the risk of cardiovascular events (CV events. However, a meta-analysis of the overall risk of CV events associated with ED in patients with diabetes has not been performed. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We searched MEDLINE and the Cochrane Library for pertinent articles (including references published between 1951 and April 22, 2012. English language reports of original observational cohort studies and cross-sectional studies were included. Pooled effect estimates were obtained by random effects meta-analysis. A total of 3,791 CV events were reported in 3 cohort studies and 9 cross-sectional studies (covering 22,586 subjects. Across the cohort studies, the overall odds ratio (OR of diabetic men with ED versus those without ED was 1.74 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.34-2.27; P0.05. Moreover, meta-regression analysis found no relationship between the method used to assess ED (questionnaire or interview, mean age, mean hemoglobin A(1c, mean body mass index, or mean duration of diabetes and the risk of CV events or CHD. In the cross-sectional studies, the OR of diabetic men with ED versus those without ED was 3.39 (95% CI: 2.58-4.44; P<0.001 for CV events (N = 9, 3.43 (95% CI: 2.46-4.77; P<0.001 for CHD (N = 7, and 2.63 (95% CI: 1.41-4.91; P = 0.002 for peripheral vascular disease (N = 5. CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE: ED was associated with an increased risk of CV events in diabetic patients. Prevention and early detection of cardiovascular disease are important in the management of diabetes, especially in view of the rapid increase in its prevalence.

Integrating Continuous-Time and Discrete-Event Concepts in Process Modelling, Simulation and Control

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Beek, van D.A.; Gordijn, S.H.F.; Rooda, J.E.; Ertas, A.

1995-01-01

Currently, modelling of systems in the process industry requires the use of different specification languages for the specification of the discrete-event and continuous-time subsystems. In this way, models are restricted to individual subsystems of either a continuous-time or discrete-event nature.

Joint Models for Longitudinal and Time-to-Event Data With Applications in R

CERN Document Server

Rizopoulos, Dimitris

2012-01-01

In longitudinal studies it is often of interest to investigate how a marker that is repeatedly measured in time is associated with a time to an event of interest, e.g., prostate cancer studies where longitudinal PSA level measurements are collected in conjunction with the time-to-recurrence. Joint Models for Longitudinal and Time-to-Event Data: With Applications in R provides a full treatment of random effects joint models for longitudinal and time-to-event outcomes that can be utilized to analyze such data. The content is primarily explanatory, focusing on applications of joint modeling, but

Towards standardized measurement of adverse events in spine surgery: conceptual model and pilot evaluation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Deyo Richard A

2006-06-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Independent of efficacy, information on safety of surgical procedures is essential for informed choices. We seek to develop standardized methodology for describing the safety of spinal operations and apply these methods to study lumbar surgery. We present a conceptual model for evaluating the safety of spine surgery and describe development of tools to measure principal components of this model: (1 specifying outcome by explicit criteria for adverse event definition, mode of ascertainment, cause, severity, or preventability, and (2 quantitatively measuring predictors such as patient factors, comorbidity, severity of degenerative spine disease, and invasiveness of spine surgery. Methods We created operational definitions for 176 adverse occurrences and established multiple mechanisms for reporting them. We developed new methods to quantify the severity of adverse occurrences, degeneration of lumbar spine, and invasiveness of spinal procedures. Using kappa statistics and intra-class correlation coefficients, we assessed agreement for the following: four reviewers independently coding etiology, preventability, and severity for 141 adverse occurrences, two observers coding lumbar spine degenerative changes in 10 selected cases, and two researchers coding invasiveness of surgery for 50 initial cases. Results During the first six months of prospective surveillance, rigorous daily medical record reviews identified 92.6% of the adverse occurrences we recorded, and voluntary reports by providers identified 38.5% (surgeons reported 18.3%, inpatient rounding team reported 23.1%, and conferences discussed 6.1%. Trained observers had fair agreement in classifying etiology of 141 adverse occurrences into 18 categories (kappa = 0.35, but agreement was substantial (kappa ≥ 0.61 for 4 specific categories: technical error, failure in communication, systems failure, and no error. Preventability assessment had moderate agreement (mean weighted

Search for supersymmetry in multilepton events with the ATLAS detector

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Graat, Julien de

2012-01-01

A search for Supersymmetry in events with three leptons (electrons or muons) and missing transverse momentum is presented. The observation of a significant excess of events with three leptons in the final state with respect to the prediction of the Standard Model would be a hint of New Physics. A sample with an integrated luminosity of L=2.06 fb -1 of proton-proton collision data at a centre-of-mass energy of √(s)=7 TeV delivered by the LHC and recorded by the ATLAS detector in 2011 is used. Special focus is placed on the composition of the Standard Model background and the measurement of misidentification rates of electrons and muons. The misidentification rates are determined from Monte Carlo simulated samples. The misidentification rates obtained for electrons yield values between ∝ 20% and ∝ 6%, depending on the transverse momentum and the pseudorapidity of the electrons, while for muons values between ∝ 42% and ∝ 10%, depending on the transverse momentum of the muons, are obtained. Two different selections are investigated, one selection vetoing events with the presence of Z bosons, the other selection requiring the presence of a Z boson. The observations of 32 events with an expectation of 26±5 events due to processes of the Standard Model and 95 events with an expectation of 72±15 events, respectively, are interpreted in a phenomenological Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model and in simplified supersymmetric models. Limits are placed in the mass parameter space of these models.

Search for supersymmetry in multilepton events with the ATLAS detector

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Graat, Julien de

2012-06-15

A search for Supersymmetry in events with three leptons (electrons or muons) and missing transverse momentum is presented. The observation of a significant excess of events with three leptons in the final state with respect to the prediction of the Standard Model would be a hint of New Physics. A sample with an integrated luminosity of L=2.06 fb{sup -1} of proton-proton collision data at a centre-of-mass energy of {radical}(s)=7 TeV delivered by the LHC and recorded by the ATLAS detector in 2011 is used. Special focus is placed on the composition of the Standard Model background and the measurement of misidentification rates of electrons and muons. The misidentification rates are determined from Monte Carlo simulated samples. The misidentification rates obtained for electrons yield values between {proportional_to} 20% and {proportional_to} 6%, depending on the transverse momentum and the pseudorapidity of the electrons, while for muons values between {proportional_to} 42% and {proportional_to} 10%, depending on the transverse momentum of the muons, are obtained. Two different selections are investigated, one selection vetoing events with the presence of Z bosons, the other selection requiring the presence of a Z boson. The observations of 32 events with an expectation of 26{+-}5 events due to processes of the Standard Model and 95 events with an expectation of 72{+-}15 events, respectively, are interpreted in a phenomenological Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model and in simplified supersymmetric models. Limits are placed in the mass parameter space of these models.

Diet Activity Characteristic of Large-scale Sports Events Based on HACCP Management Model

OpenAIRE

Xiao-Feng Su; Li Guo; Li-Hua Gao; Chang-Zhuan Shao

2015-01-01

The study proposed major sports events dietary management based on "HACCP" management model. According to the characteristic of major sports events catering activities. Major sports events are not just showcase level of competitive sports activities which have become comprehensive special events including social, political, economic, cultural and other factors, complex. Sporting events conferred reach more diverse goals and objectives of economic, political, cultural, technological and other ...

Discrete Event Simulation Model of the Polaris 2.1 Gamma Ray Imaging Radiation Detection Device

Science.gov (United States)

2016-06-01

release; distribution is unlimited DISCRETE EVENT SIMULATION MODEL OF THE POLARIS 2.1 GAMMA RAY IMAGING RADIATION DETECTION DEVICE by Andres T...ONLY (Leave blank) 2. REPORT DATE June 2016 3. REPORT TYPE AND DATES COVERED Master’s thesis 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE DISCRETE EVENT SIMULATION MODEL...modeled. The platform, Simkit, was utilized to create a discrete event simulation (DES) model of the Polaris. After carefully constructing the DES

Analysis and verification of a prediction model of solar energetic proton events

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, J.; Zhong, Q.

2017-12-01

The solar energetic particle event can cause severe radiation damages near Earth. The alerts and summary products of the solar energetic proton events were provided by the Space Environment Prediction Center (SEPC) according to the flux of the greater than 10 MeV protons taken by GOES satellite in geosynchronous orbit. The start of a solar energetic proton event is defined as the time when the flux of the greater than 10 MeV protons equals or exceeds 10 proton flux units (pfu). In this study, a model was developed to predict the solar energetic proton events, provide the warning for the solar energetic proton events at least minutes in advance, based on both the soft X-ray flux and integral proton flux taken by GOES. The quality of the forecast model was measured against verifications of accuracy, reliability, discrimination capability, and forecast skills. The peak flux and rise time of the solar energetic proton events in the six channels, >1MeV, >5 MeV, >10 MeV, >30 MeV, >50 MeV, >100 MeV, were also simulated and analyzed.

A viscoplastic shear-zone model for episodic slow slip events in oceanic subduction zones

Science.gov (United States)

Yin, A.; Meng, L.

2016-12-01

Episodic slow slip events occur widely along oceanic subduction zones at the brittle-ductile transition depths ( 20-50 km). Although efforts have been devoted to unravel their mechanical origins, it remains unclear about the physical controls on the wide range of their recurrence intervals and slip durations. In this study we present a simple mechanical model that attempts to account for the observed temporal evolution of slow slip events. In our model we assume that slow slip events occur in a viscoplastic shear zone (i.e., Bingham material), which has an upper static and a lower dynamic plastic yield strength. We further assume that the hanging wall deformation is approximated as an elastic spring. We envision the shear zone to be initially locked during forward/landward motion but is subsequently unlocked when the elastic and gravity-induced stress exceeds the static yield strength of the shear zone. This leads to backward/trenchward motion damped by viscous shear-zone deformation. As the elastic spring progressively loosens, the hanging wall velocity evolves with time and the viscous shear stress eventually reaches the dynamic yield strength. This is followed by the termination of the trenchward motion when the elastic stress is balanced by the dynamic yield strength of the shear zone and the gravity. In order to account for the zig-saw slip-history pattern of typical repeated slow slip events, we assume that the shear zone progressively strengthens after each slow slip cycle, possibly caused by dilatancy as commonly assumed or by progressive fault healing through solution-transport mechanisms. We quantify our conceptual model by obtaining simple analytical solutions. Our model results suggest that the duration of the landward motion increases with the down-dip length and the static yield strength of the shear zone, but decreases with the ambient loading velocity and the elastic modulus of the hanging wall. The duration of the backward/trenchward motion depends

Predicting Individual Action Switching in Covert and Continuous Interactive Tasks Using the Fluid Events Model.

Science.gov (United States)

Radvansky, Gabriel A; D'Mello, Sidney K; Abbott, Robert G; Bixler, Robert E

2016-01-01

The Fluid Events Model is aimed at predicting changes in the actions people take on a moment-by-moment basis. In contrast with other research on action selection, this work does not investigate why some course of action was selected, but rather the likelihood of discontinuing the current course of action and selecting another in the near future. This is done using both task-based and experience-based factors. Prior work evaluated this model in the context of trial-by-trial, independent, interactive events, such as choosing how to copy a figure of a line drawing. In this paper, we extend this model to more covert event experiences, such as reading narratives, as well as to continuous interactive events, such as playing a video game. To this end, the model was applied to existing data sets of reading time and event segmentation for written and picture stories. It was also applied to existing data sets of performance in a strategy board game, an aerial combat game, and a first person shooter game in which a participant's current state was dependent on prior events. The results revealed that the model predicted behavior changes well, taking into account both the theoretically defined structure of the described events, as well as a person's prior experience. Thus, theories of event cognition can benefit from efforts that take into account not only how events in the world are structured, but also how people experience those events.

Modelling Inland Flood Events for Hazard Maps in Taiwan

Science.gov (United States)

Ghosh, S.; Nzerem, K.; Sassi, M.; Hilberts, A.; Assteerawatt, A.; Tillmanns, S.; Mathur, P.; Mitas, C.; Rafique, F.

2015-12-01

Taiwan experiences significant inland flooding, driven by torrential rainfall from plum rain storms and typhoons during summer and fall. From last 13 to 16 years data, 3,000 buildings were damaged by such floods annually with a loss US$0.41 billion (Water Resources Agency). This long, narrow island nation with mostly hilly/mountainous topography is located at tropical-subtropical zone with annual average typhoon-hit-frequency of 3-4 (Central Weather Bureau) and annual average precipitation of 2502mm (WRA) - 2.5 times of the world's average. Spatial and temporal distributions of countrywide precipitation are uneven, with very high local extreme rainfall intensities. Annual average precipitation is 3000-5000mm in the mountainous regions, 78% of it falls in May-October, and the 1-hour to 3-day maximum rainfall are about 85 to 93% of the world records (WRA). Rivers in Taiwan are short with small upstream areas and high runoff coefficients of watersheds. These rivers have the steepest slopes, the shortest response time with rapid flows, and the largest peak flows as well as specific flood peak discharge (WRA) in the world. RMS has recently developed a countrywide inland flood model for Taiwan, producing hazard return period maps at 1arcsec grid resolution. These can be the basis for evaluating and managing flood risk, its economic impacts, and insured flood losses. The model is initiated with sub-daily historical meteorological forcings and calibrated to daily discharge observations at about 50 river gauges over the period 2003-2013. Simulations of hydrologic processes, via rainfall-runoff and routing models, are subsequently performed based on a 10000 year set of stochastic forcing. The rainfall-runoff model is physically based continuous, semi-distributed model for catchment hydrology. The 1-D wave propagation hydraulic model considers catchment runoff in routing and describes large-scale transport processes along the river. It also accounts for reservoir storage

Event by event physics in ALICE

CERN Document Server

Christakoglou, Panos

2009-01-01

Fluctuations of thermodynamic quantities are fundamental for the study of the QGP phase transition. The ALICE experiment is well suited for precise event-by-event measurements of various quantities. In this article, we review the capabilities of ALICE to study the fluctuations of several key observables such as the net charge, the temperature, and the particle ratios. Among the observables related to correlations, we review the balance functions and the long range correlations.

CRITICAL EVENTS IN CONSTRUCTION PROCESS

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jørgensen, Kirsten; Rasmussen, Grane Mikael Gregaard

2009-01-01

cause-effects of failures and defects in the construction industry by using an analytical approach (The bowtie model) which is developed in the accident research. Using this model clarifies the relationships within the chain of failures that causes critical events with undesirable consequences......Function failures, defects and poor communication are major problems in the construction industry. These failures and defects are caused by a row of critical events in the construction process. The purpose of this paper is to define “critical events” in the construction process and to investigate....... In this way the causes of failures and the relationships between various failures are rendered visible. A large construction site was observed from start to finish as the empirical element in the research. The research focuses on all kinds of critical events identified throughout every phase during...

Event-by-event fluctuations of average transverse momentum in central Pb + Pb collisions at 158 GeV per nucleon

CERN Document Server

Appelshauser, H.; Bailey, S.J.; Barna, D.; Barnby, L.S.; Bartke, J.; Barton, R.A.; Betev, L.; Bialkowska, H.; Billmeier, A.; Blyth, C.O.; Bock, R.; Boimska, B.; Bormann, C.; Brady, F.P.; Brockmann, R.; Brun, R.; Buncic, P.; Caines, H.L.; Carr, L.D.; Cebra, D.A.; Cooper, G.E.; Cramer, J.G.; Cristinziani, M.; Csato, P.; Dunn, J.; Eckardt, V.; Eckhardt, F.; Ferguson, M.I.; Fischer, H.G.; Flierl, D.; Fodor, Z.; Foka, P.; Freund, P.; Friese, V.; Fuchs, M.; Gabler, F.; Gal, J.; Ganz, R.; Gazdzicki, M.; Geist, Walter M.; Gladysz, E.; Grebieszkow, J.; Gunther, J.; Harris, J.W.; Hegyi, S.; Henkel, T.; Hill, L.A.; Hummler, H.; Igo, G.; Irmscher, D.; Jacobs, P.; Jones, P.G.; Kadija, K.; Kolesnikov, V.I.; Kowalski, M.; Lasiuk, B.; Levai, P.; Malakhov, A.I.; Margetis, S.; Markert, C.; Melkumov, G.L.; Mock, A.; Molnar, J.; Nelson, John M.; Oldenburg, M.; Odyniec, G.; Palla, G.; Panagiotou, A.D.; Petridis, A.; Piper, A.; Porter, R.J.; Poskanzer, Arthur M.; Prindle, D.J.; Puhlhofer, F.; Reid, J.G.; Renfordt, R.; Retyk, W.; Ritter, H.G.; Rohrich, D.; Roland, C.; Roland, G.; Rudolph, H.; Rybicki, A.; Sammer, T.; Sandoval, A.; Sann, H.; Semenov, A.Yu.; Schafer, E.; Schmischke, D.; Schmitz, N.; Schonfelder, S.; Seyboth, P.; Seyerlein, J.; Sikler, F.; Skrzypczak, E.; Snellings, R.; Squier, G.T.A.; Stock, R.; Strobele, H.; Struck, Chr.; Susa, T.; Szentpetery, I.; Sziklai, J.; Toy, M.; Trainor, T.A.; Trentalange, S.; Ullrich, T.; Vassiliou, M.; Veres, G.; Vesztergombi, G.; Voloshin, S.; Vranic, D.; Wang, F.; Weerasundara, D.D.; Wenig, S.; Whitten, C.; Wienold, T.; Wood, L.; Xu, N.; Yates, T.A.; Zimanyi, J.; Zhu, X.Z.; Zybert, R.

1999-01-01

We present first data on event-by-event fluctuations in the average transverse momentum of charged particles produced in Pb+Pb collisions at the CERN SPS. This measurement provides previously unavailable information allowing sensitive tests of microscopic and thermodynamic collision models and to search for fluctuations expected to occur in the vicinity of the predicted QCD phase transition. We find that the observed variance of the event-by-event average transverse momentum is consistent with independent particle production modified by the known two-particle correlations due to quantum statistics and final state interactions and folded with the resolution of the NA49 apparatus. For two specific models of non-statistical fluctuations in transverse momentum limits are derived in terms of fluctuation amplitude. We show that a significant part of the parameter space for a model of isospin fluctuations predicted as a consequence of chiral symmetry restoration in

Neutron-induced single event upsets in static RAMS observed at 10 km flight altitude

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Olsen, J.; Becher, P.E.; Fynbo, P.B.; Raaby, P. Schultz, J.

1993-01-01

Neutron induced single event upsets (SEUs) in static memory devices (SRAMs) have so far been seen only in laboratory environments. The authors report observations of 14 neutron induced SEUs at commercial aircraft flight altitudes as well. The observed SEU rate at 10 km flight altitude based on exposure of 160 standard 256 Kbit CMOS SRAMs is 4.8 · 10 -8 upsets/bit/day. In the laboratory 117 SRAMs of two different brands were irradiated with fast neutrons from a Pu-Be source. A total of 176 SEUs have been observed, among these are two SEU pairs. The upset rates from the laboratory tests are compared to those found in the airborne SRAMS

A Participatory Modeling Application of a Distributed Hydrologic Model in Nuevo Leon, Mexico for the 2010 Hurricane Alex Flood Event

Science.gov (United States)

Baish, A. S.; Vivoni, E. R.; Payan, J. G.; Robles-Morua, A.; Basile, G. M.

2011-12-01

A distributed hydrologic model can help bring consensus among diverse stakeholders in regional flood planning by producing quantifiable sets of alternative futures. This value is acute in areas with high uncertainties in hydrologic conditions and sparse observations. In this study, we conduct an application of the Triangulated Irregular Network (TIN)-based Real-time Integrated Basin Simulator (tRIBS) in the Santa Catarina basin of Nuevo Leon, Mexico, where Hurricane Alex in July 2010 led to catastrophic flooding of the capital city of Monterrey. Distributed model simulations utilize best-available information on the regional topography, land cover, and soils obtained from Mexican government agencies or analysis of remotely-sensed imagery from MODIS and ASTER. Furthermore, we developed meteorological forcing for the flood event based on multiple data sources, including three local gauge networks, satellite-based estimates from TRMM and PERSIANN, and the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS). Remotely-sensed data allowed us to quantify rainfall distributions in the upland, rural portions of the Santa Catarina that are sparsely populated and ungauged. Rural areas had significant contributions to the flood event and as a result were considered by stakeholders for flood control measures, including new reservoirs and upland vegetation management. Participatory modeling workshops with the stakeholders revealed a disconnect between urban and rural populations in regard to understanding the hydrologic conditions of the flood event and the effectiveness of existing and potential flood control measures. Despite these challenges, the use of the distributed flood forecasts developed within this participatory framework facilitated building consensus among diverse stakeholders and exploring alternative futures in the basin.

Air Twitter: Mashing Crowdsourced Air Quality Event Identification with Scientific Earth Observations (Invited)

Science.gov (United States)

Robinson, E. M.

2010-12-01

, which allows time series of the number of tweets hourly and daily. Monitoring the time series AQ events are identified from the background chatter about air quality. As the events are identified, collaborative, EventSpaces (Robinson, 2008) are created using the ESIP wiki to collect and merge social and scientific information about the event. The EventSpaces are monitored using Google Analytics. During the August California Fires the traffic increased five-fold to the ESIP wiki. Furthermore, the increase in traffic was entirely due to views of the SoCal FireEventSpace. A top driver to the site was through tweeting the link to the EventSpace and having that link re-tweeted by others like the LA Times. An interesting an unexpected observation, was that most of the increased traffic was coming from Southern California. So the right people were finding the right information at the right time. The overall benefit of using the online community as an AQ event indicator, allows specific effort to be made for initial documentation of air quality events and the result is a catalog of events with some sparse analysis that can be followed-up.

Observability and synchronization of neuron models

Science.gov (United States)

Aguirre, Luis A.; Portes, Leonardo L.; Letellier, Christophe