WorldWideScience

Sample records for models observing events

  1. Event Modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bækgaard, Lars

    2001-01-01

    The purpose of this chapter is to discuss conceptual event modeling within a context of information modeling. Traditionally, information modeling has been concerned with the modeling of a universe of discourse in terms of information structures. However, most interesting universes of discourse...... are dynamic and we present a modeling approach that can be used to model such dynamics.We characterize events as both information objects and change agents (Bækgaard 1997). When viewed as information objects events are phenomena that can be observed and described. For example, borrow events in a library can...

  2. Body and Surface Wave Modeling of Observed Seismic Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    1981-04-30

    mechanisms for foreshock , mainshock, and aftershock sequences using Seismic Research Observatory (SRO) data, EOS, 57(12), p. 954, 1976. Bache, T.C., W.L...the event as well as that of the immediate foreshock were 95 located (Allen and Nordquist, 1972) and where the largest surface displacements were...1972). Foreshock , main shock and larger aftershocks of the Borrego Mountain earthquake, U. S. Geological Survey Professional Paper 787, 16-23. Bache

  3. Event-by-Event Observables and Fluctuations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Petersen, Hannah

    2013-01-01

    In this talk the status and open questions of the phenomenological description of all the stages of a heavy ion reaction are highlighted. Special emphasis is put on event-by-event fluctuations and associated observables. The first part is concentrated on high RHIC and LHC energies and the second part reviews the challenges for modeling heavy ion reactions at lower beam energies in a more realistic fashion. Overall, the main conclusion is that sophisticated theoretical dynamical approaches that describe many observables in the same framework are essential for the quantitative understanding of the properties of hot and dense nuclear matter

  4. Extreme temperature events on Greenland in observations and the MAR regional climate model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leeson, Amber A.; Eastoe, Emma; Fettweis, Xavier

    2018-03-01

    Meltwater from the Greenland Ice Sheet contributed 1.7-6.12 mm to global sea level between 1993 and 2010 and is expected to contribute 20-110 mm to future sea level rise by 2100. These estimates were produced by regional climate models (RCMs) which are known to be robust at the ice sheet scale but occasionally miss regional- and local-scale climate variability (e.g. Leeson et al., 2017; Medley et al., 2013). To date, the fidelity of these models in the context of short-period variability in time (i.e. intra-seasonal) has not been fully assessed, for example their ability to simulate extreme temperature events. We use an event identification algorithm commonly used in extreme value analysis, together with observations from the Greenland Climate Network (GC-Net), to assess the ability of the MAR (Modèle Atmosphérique Régional) RCM to reproduce observed extreme positive-temperature events at 14 sites around Greenland. We find that MAR is able to accurately simulate the frequency and duration of these events but underestimates their magnitude by more than half a degree Celsius/kelvin, although this bias is much smaller than that exhibited by coarse-scale Era-Interim reanalysis data. As a result, melt energy in MAR output is underestimated by between 16 and 41 % depending on global forcing applied. Further work is needed to precisely determine the drivers of extreme temperature events, and why the model underperforms in this area, but our findings suggest that biases are passed into MAR from boundary forcing data. This is important because these forcings are common between RCMs and their range of predictions of past and future ice sheet melting. We propose that examining extreme events should become a routine part of global and regional climate model evaluation and that addressing shortcomings in this area should be a priority for model development.

  5. An observational and modeling study of the August 2017 Florida climate extreme event.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Konduru, R.; Singh, V.; Routray, A.

    2017-12-01

    A special report on the climate extremes by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) elucidates that the sole cause of disasters is due to the exposure and vulnerability of the human and natural system to the climate extremes. The cause of such a climate extreme could be anthropogenic or non-anthropogenic. Therefore, it is challenging to discern the critical factor of influence for a particular climate extreme. Such kind of perceptive study with reasonable confidence on climate extreme events is possible only if there exist any past case studies. A similar rarest climate extreme problem encountered in the case of Houston floods and extreme rainfall over Florida in August 2017. A continuum of hurricanes like Harvey and Irma targeted the Florida region and caused catastrophe. Due to the rarity of August 2017 Florida climate extreme event, it requires the in-depth study on this case. To understand the multi-faceted nature of the event, a study on the development of the Harvey hurricane and its progression and dynamics is significant. Current article focus on the observational and modeling study on the Harvey hurricane. A global model named as NCUM (The global UK Met office Unified Model (UM) operational at National Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting, India, was utilized to simulate the Harvey hurricane. The simulated rainfall and wind fields were compared with the observational datasets like Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission rainfall datasets and Era-Interim wind fields. The National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) automated tracking system was utilized to track the Harvey hurricane, and the tracks were analyzed statistically for different forecasts concerning the Harvey hurricane track of Joint Typhon Warning Centre. Further, the current study will be continued to investigate the atmospheric processes involved in the August 2017 Florida climate extreme event.

  6. Forecast, observation and modelling of a deep stratospheric intrusion event over Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Zanis

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available A wide range of measurements was carried out in central and southeastern Europe within the framework of the EU project STACCATO (Influence of Stratosphere-Troposphere Exchange in a Changing Climate on Atmospheric Transport and Oxidation Capacity with the principle goal to create a comprehensive data set on stratospheric air intrusions into the troposphere along a rather frequently observed pathway over central Europe from the North Sea to the Mediterranean Sea. The measurements were based on predictions by suitable quasi-operational trajectory calculations using ECMWF forecast data. A predicted deep Stratosphere to Troposphere Transport (STT event, encountered during the STACCATO period on 20-21 June 2001, was followed by the measurements network almost from its inception. Observations provide evidence that the intrusion affected large parts of central and southeastern Europe. Especially, the ozone lidar observations on 20-21 June 2001 at Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany captured the evolution of two marked tongues of high ozone with the first one descending to nearly 2 km, thus providing an excellent data set for model intercomparisons and validation. In addition, for the first time to our knowledge concurrent surface measurements of the cosmogenic radionuclides 10Be and 7Be and their ratio 10Be/7Be are presented together as stratospheric tracers in a case study of a stratospheric intrusion. The ozone tracer columns calculated with the FLEXPART model were found to be in good agreement with water vapour satellite images, capturing the evolution of the observed dry streamers of stratospheric origin. Furthermore, the time-height cross section of ozone tracer simulated with FLEXPART over Garmisch-Partenkirchen captures many details of the evolution of the two observed high-ozone filaments measured with the IFU lidar, thus demonstrating the considerable progress in model simulations. Finally, the modelled ozone (operationally available since October

  7. Fingerprints of a riming event on cloud radar Doppler spectra: observations and modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Kalesse

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Radar Doppler spectra measurements are exploited to study a riming event when precipitating ice from a seeder cloud sediment through a supercooled liquid water (SLW layer. The focus is on the "golden sample" case study for this type of analysis based on observations collected during the deployment of the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program's (ARM mobile facility AMF2 at Hyytiälä, Finland, during the Biogenic Aerosols – Effects on Clouds and Climate (BAECC field campaign. The presented analysis of the height evolution of the radar Doppler spectra is a state-of-the-art retrieval with profiling cloud radars in SLW layers beyond the traditional use of spectral moments. Dynamical effects are considered by following the particle population evolution along slanted tracks that are caused by horizontal advection of the cloud under wind shear conditions. In the SLW layer, the identified liquid peak is used as an air motion tracer to correct the Doppler spectra for vertical air motion and the ice peak is used to study the radar profiles of rimed particles. A 1-D steady-state bin microphysical model is constrained using the SLW and air motion profiles and cloud top radar observations. The observed radar moment profiles of the rimed snow can be simulated reasonably well by the model, but not without making several assumptions about the ice particle concentration and the relative role of deposition and aggregation. This suggests that in situ observations of key ice properties are needed to complement the profiling radar observations before process-oriented studies can effectively evaluate ice microphysical parameterizations.

  8. Calculation of Fission Observables Through Event-by-Event Simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Randrup, J; Vogt, R

    2009-06-04

    The increased interest in more exclusive fission observables has demanded more detailed models. We present here a new computational model, FREYA, that aims to met this need by producing large samples of complete fission events from which any observable of interest can then be extracted consistently, including arbitrary correlations. The various model assumptions are described and the potential utility of the model is illustrated by means of several novel correlation observables.

  9. Teaching Metaphorical Extensions of Private Events through Rival-Model Observation to Children with Autism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dixon, Mark R.; Belisle, Jordan; Munoz, Bridget E.; Stanley, Caleb R.; Rowsey, Kyle E.

    2017-01-01

    The study evaluated the efficacy of observational learning using the rival-model technique in teaching three children with autism to state metaphorical statements about emotions when provided a picture, as well as to intraverbally state an appropriate emotion when provided a scenario and corresponding metaphorical emotion. The results provide a…

  10. SAR observation and model tracking of an oil spill event in coastal waters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cheng, Yongcun; Li, Xiaofeng; Xu, Qing

    2011-01-01

    Oil spills are a major contributor to marine pollution. The objective of this work is to simulate the oil spill trajectory of oil released from a pipeline leaking in the Gulf of Mexico with the GNOME (General NOAA Operational Modeling Environment) model. The model was developed by NOAA (National...... Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) to investigate the effects of different pollutants and environmental conditions on trajectory results. Also, a Texture-Classifying Neural Network Algorithm (TCNNA) was used to delineate ocean oil slicks from synthetic aperture radar (SAR) observations. During...

  11. SHOCK CONNECTIVITY IN THE 2010 AUGUST AND 2012 JULY SOLAR ENERGETIC PARTICLE EVENTS INFERRED FROM OBSERVATIONS AND ENLIL MODELING

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bain, H. M.; Luhmann, J. G.; Li, Y.; Mays, M. L.; Jian, L. K.; Odstrcil, D.

    2016-01-01

    During periods of increased solar activity, coronal mass ejections (CMEs) can occur in close succession and proximity to one another. This can lead to the interaction and merger of CME ejecta as they propagate in the heliosphere. The particles accelerated in these shocks can result in complex solar energetic particle (SEP) events, as observing spacecraft form both remote and local shock connections. It can be challenging to understand these complex SEP events from in situ profiles alone. Multipoint observations of CMEs in the near-Sun environment, from the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory –Sun Earth Connection Coronal and Heliospheric Investigation and the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph, greatly improve our chances of identifying the origin of these accelerated particles. However, contextual information on conditions in the heliosphere, including the background solar wind conditions and shock structures, is essential for understanding SEP properties well enough to forecast their characteristics. Wang–Sheeley–Arge WSA-ENLIL + Cone modeling provides a tool to interpret major SEP event periods in the context of a realistic heliospheric model and to determine how much of what is observed in large SEP events depends on nonlocal magnetic connections to shock sources. We discuss observations of the SEP-rich periods of 2010 August and 2012 July in conjunction with ENLIL modeling. We find that much SEP activity can only be understood in the light of such models, and in particular from knowing about both remote and local shock source connections. These results must be folded into the investigations of the physics underlying the longitudinal extent of SEP events, and the source connection versus diffusion pictures of interpretations of SEP events.

  12. SHOCK CONNECTIVITY IN THE 2010 AUGUST AND 2012 JULY SOLAR ENERGETIC PARTICLE EVENTS INFERRED FROM OBSERVATIONS AND ENLIL MODELING

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bain, H. M.; Luhmann, J. G.; Li, Y. [Space Sciences Laboratory, UC Berkeley, 7 Gauss Way, Berkeley, CA 94720-7450 (United States); Mays, M. L. [Catholic University of America, Washington, DC (United States); Jian, L. K.; Odstrcil, D., E-mail: hbain@ssl.berkeley.edu [Heliophysics Science Division, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD 20771 (United States)

    2016-07-01

    During periods of increased solar activity, coronal mass ejections (CMEs) can occur in close succession and proximity to one another. This can lead to the interaction and merger of CME ejecta as they propagate in the heliosphere. The particles accelerated in these shocks can result in complex solar energetic particle (SEP) events, as observing spacecraft form both remote and local shock connections. It can be challenging to understand these complex SEP events from in situ profiles alone. Multipoint observations of CMEs in the near-Sun environment, from the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory –Sun Earth Connection Coronal and Heliospheric Investigation and the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph, greatly improve our chances of identifying the origin of these accelerated particles. However, contextual information on conditions in the heliosphere, including the background solar wind conditions and shock structures, is essential for understanding SEP properties well enough to forecast their characteristics. Wang–Sheeley–Arge WSA-ENLIL + Cone modeling provides a tool to interpret major SEP event periods in the context of a realistic heliospheric model and to determine how much of what is observed in large SEP events depends on nonlocal magnetic connections to shock sources. We discuss observations of the SEP-rich periods of 2010 August and 2012 July in conjunction with ENLIL modeling. We find that much SEP activity can only be understood in the light of such models, and in particular from knowing about both remote and local shock source connections. These results must be folded into the investigations of the physics underlying the longitudinal extent of SEP events, and the source connection versus diffusion pictures of interpretations of SEP events.

  13. The FU Orionis outburst as a thermal accretion event: Observational constraints for protostellar disk models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bell, K. R.; Lin, D. N. C.; Hartmann, L. W.; Kenyon, S. J.

    1995-01-01

    The results of the time-dependent disk models developed in Bell & Lin are compared with observed properties of FU Orionis variables. Specific models are fit to the light curves of Fu Ori, V1515 Cyg, and V1057 Cyg. The slow risetime of V1515 Cyg can be matched by a self-regulated outburst model. The rapid risetimes of FU Ori and V1057 Cyg can be fitted with the application of modest perturbations to the disk surface density. Model disks display spectral features characteristic of observed objects. The color evolution of V1057 Cyg is naturally explained if mass flux drops in the inner disk (r less than 1/4 AU) while remaining steady in the outer disk. The decrease in optical line width (rotational velocity) observed during the decay of V1057 Cyg may be accounted for by an outward-propagating ionization front. We predict that before final decay to the quiescent phase, short-wavelength line widths (lambda less than 1.5 microns) will again increase. It is suggested that FU Orionis outbursts primarily occur to systems during the embedded phase with ages less than several times 10(exp 5) yr.

  14. Occurrence of blowing snow events at an alpine site over a 10-year period: Observations and modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vionnet, V.; Guyomarc'h, G.; Naaim Bouvet, F.; Martin, E.; Durand, Y.; Bellot, H.; Bel, C.; Puglièse, P.

    2013-05-01

    Blowing snow events control the evolution of the snow pack in mountainous areas and cause inhomogeneous snow distribution. The goal of this study is to identify the main features of blowing snow events at an alpine site and assess the ability of the detailed snowpack model Crocus to reproduce the occurrence of these events in a 1D configuration. We created a database of blowing snow events observed over 10 years at our experimental site. Occurrences of blowing snow events were divided into cases with and without concurrent falling snow. Overall, snow transport is observed during 10.5% of the time in winter and occurs with concurrent falling snow 37.3% of the time. Wind speed and snow age control the frequency of occurrence. Model results illustrate the necessity of taking the wind-dependence of falling snow grain characteristics into account to simulate periods of snow transport and mass fluxes satisfactorily during those periods. The high rate of false alarms produced by the model is investigated in detail for winter 2010/2011 using measurements from snow particle counters.

  15. Observations and global numerical modelling of the St. Patrick's Day 2015 geomagnetic storm event

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foerster, M.; Prokhorov, B. E.; Doornbos, E.; Astafieva, E.; Zakharenkova, I.

    2017-12-01

    With a sudden storm commencement (SSC) at 04:45 UT on St. Patrick's day 2015 started the most severe geomagnetic storm in solar cycle 24. It appeared as a two-stage geomagnetic storm with a minimum SYM-H value of -233 nT. In the response to the storm commencement in the first activation, a short-term positive effect in the ionospheric vertical electron content (VTEC) occurred at low- and mid-latitudes on the dayside. The second phase commencing around 12:30 UT lasted longer and caused significant and complex storm-time changes around the globe with hemispherical different ionospheric storm reactions in different longitudinal ranges. Swarm-C observations of the neutral mass density variation along the orbital path as well as Langmuir probe plasma and magnetometer measurements of all three Swarm satellites and global TEC records are used for physical interpretations and modelling of the positive/negative storm scenario. These observations pose a challenge for the global numerical modelling of thermosphere-ionosphere storm processes as the storm, which occurred around spring equinox, obviously signify the existence of other impact factors than seasonal dependence for hemispheric asymmetries to occur. Numerical simulation trials using the Potsdam version of the Upper Atmosphere Model (UAM-P) are presented to explain these peculiar M-I-T storm processes.

  16. Analysis of a severe weather event over Mecca, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, using observations and high-resolution modelling

    KAUST Repository

    Dasari, Hari Prasad; Attada, Raju; Knio, Omar; Hoteit, Ibrahim

    2017-01-01

    The dynamic and thermodynamic characteristics of a severe weather event that caused heavy wind and rainfall over Mecca, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, on 11 September 2015 were investigated using available observations and the Weather Research and Forecasting model configured at 1 km resolution. Analysis of surface, upper air observations and model outputs reveals that the event was initiated by synoptic scale conditions that intensified by interaction with the local topography, triggering strong winds and high convective rainfall. The model predicted the observed characteristics of both rainfall and winds well, accurately predicting the maximum wind speed of 20–25 m s−1 that was sustained for about 2 h. A time series analysis of various atmospheric variables suggests a sudden fall in pressure, temperature and outgoing long wave radiation before the development of the storm, followed by a significant increase in wind speed, latent and moisture fluxes and change in wind direction during the mature stage of the storm. The model outputs suggest that the heavy rainfall was induced by a low-level moisture supply from the Red Sea combined with orographic lifting. Latent heat release from microphysical processes increased the vertical velocities in the mid-troposphere, further increasing the low-level convergence that strengthened the event.

  17. Analysis of a severe weather event over Mecca, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, using observations and high-resolution modelling

    KAUST Repository

    Dasari, Hari Prasad

    2017-08-10

    The dynamic and thermodynamic characteristics of a severe weather event that caused heavy wind and rainfall over Mecca, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, on 11 September 2015 were investigated using available observations and the Weather Research and Forecasting model configured at 1 km resolution. Analysis of surface, upper air observations and model outputs reveals that the event was initiated by synoptic scale conditions that intensified by interaction with the local topography, triggering strong winds and high convective rainfall. The model predicted the observed characteristics of both rainfall and winds well, accurately predicting the maximum wind speed of 20–25 m s−1 that was sustained for about 2 h. A time series analysis of various atmospheric variables suggests a sudden fall in pressure, temperature and outgoing long wave radiation before the development of the storm, followed by a significant increase in wind speed, latent and moisture fluxes and change in wind direction during the mature stage of the storm. The model outputs suggest that the heavy rainfall was induced by a low-level moisture supply from the Red Sea combined with orographic lifting. Latent heat release from microphysical processes increased the vertical velocities in the mid-troposphere, further increasing the low-level convergence that strengthened the event.

  18. MULTI-SPACECRAFT OBSERVATIONS AND TRANSPORT MODELING OF ENERGETIC ELECTRONS FOR A SERIES OF SOLAR PARTICLE EVENTS IN AUGUST 2010

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dröge, W.; Kartavykh, Y. Y. [Institut für Theoretische Physik und Astrophysik, Universität Würzburg, D-97074 Würzburg (Germany); Dresing, N.; Klassen, A. [Institut für Experimentelle und Angewandte Physik, Universität Kiel, D-24118 Kiel (Germany)

    2016-08-01

    During 2010 August a series of solar particle events was observed by the two STEREO spacecraft as well as near-Earth spacecraft. The events, occurring on August 7, 14, and 18, originated from active regions 11093 and 11099. We combine in situ and remote-sensing observations with predictions from our model of three-dimensional anisotropic particle propagation in order to investigate the physical processes that caused the large angular spreads of energetic electrons during these events. In particular, we address the effects of the lateral transport of the electrons in the solar corona that is due to diffusion perpendicular to the average magnetic field in the interplanetary medium. We also study the influence of two coronal mass ejections and associated shock waves on the electron propagation, and a possible time variation of the transport conditions during the above period. For the August 18 event we also utilize electron observations from the MESSENGER spacecraft at a distance of 0.31 au from the Sun for an attempt to separate between radial and longitudinal dependencies in the transport process. Our modelings show that the parallel and perpendicular diffusion mean free paths of electrons can vary significantly not only as a function of the radial distance, but also of the heliospheric longitude. Normalized to a distance of 1 au, we derive values of λ {sub ∥} in the range of 0.15–0.6 au, and values of λ {sub ⊥} in the range of 0.005–0.01 au. We discuss how our results relate to various theoretical models for perpendicular diffusion, and whether there might be a functional relationship between the perpendicular and the parallel mean free path.

  19. A long Saharan dust event over the western Mediterranean: Lidar, Sun photometer observations, and regional dust modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    PéRez, C.; Nickovic, S.; Baldasano, J. M.; Sicard, M.; Rocadenbosch, F.; Cachorro, V. E.

    2006-08-01

    A long Saharan dust event affected the western Mediterranean in the period 12-28 June 2002. Dust was present mainly between 1- and 5-km height affecting most parts of the Iberian Peninsula and reaching western/central Europe. Intensive backscatter lidar observations over Barcelona (Spain) and Sun photometer data from two stations (El Arenosillo, Spain, and Avignon, France) are used to evaluate different configurations the Dust Regional Atmospheric Modeling (DREAM) system. DREAM currently operates dust forecasts over the Mediterranean region (http://www.bsc.es/projects/earthscience/DREAM/) considering four particle size bins while only the first two are relevant for long-range transport analysis since their life time is larger than 12 hours. A more detailed bin method is implemented, and two different dust distributions at sources are compared to the operational version. Evaluations are performed at two wavelengths (532 and 1064 nm). The dust horizontal and vertical structure simulated by DREAM shows very good qualitative agreement when compared to SeaWIFS satellite images and lidar height-time displays over Barcelona. When evaluating the modeled aerosol optical depth (AOD) against Sun photometer data, significant improvements are achieved with the use of the new detailed bin method. In general, the model underpredicts the AOD for increasing Ångström exponents because of the influence of anthropogenic pollution in the boundary layer. In fact, the modeled AOD is highly anticorrelated with the observed Ångström exponents. Avignon shows higher influence of small anthropogenic aerosols which explains the better results of the model at the wavelength of 1064 nm over this location. The uncertainties of backscatter lidar inversions (20-30%) are in the same order of magnitude as the differences between the model experiments. Better model results are obtained when comparing to lidar because most of the anthropogenic effect is removed.

  20. Episodes, events, and models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sangeet eKhemlani

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available We describe a novel computational theory of how individuals segment perceptual information into representations of events. The theory is inspired by recent findings in the cognitive science and cognitive neuroscience of event segmentation. In line with recent theories, it holds that online event segmentation is automatic, and that event segmentation yields mental simulations of events. But it posits two novel principles as well: first, discrete episodic markers track perceptual and conceptual changes, and can be retrieved to construct event models. Second, the process of retrieving and reconstructing those episodic markers is constrained and prioritized. We describe a computational implementation of the theory, as well as a robotic extension of the theory that demonstrates the processes of online event segmentation and event model construction. The theory is the first unified computational account of event segmentation and temporal inference. We conclude by demonstrating now neuroimaging data can constrain and inspire the construction of process-level theories of human reasoning.

  1. CATASTROPHIC EVENTS MODELING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ciumas Cristina

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the emergence and evolution of catastrophe models (cat models. Starting with the present context of extreme weather events and features of catastrophic risk (cat risk we’ll make a chronological illustration from a theoretical point of view of the main steps taken for building such models. In this way the importance of interdisciplinary can be observed. The first cat model considered contains three modules. For each of these indentified modules: hazard, vulnerability and financial losses a detailed overview and also an exemplification of a potential case of an earthquake that measures more than 7 on Richter scale occurring nowadays in Bucharest will be provided. The key areas exposed to earthquake in Romania will be identified. Then, based on past catastrophe data and taking into account present conditions of housing stock, insurance coverage and the population of Bucharest the impact will be quantified by determining potential losses. In order to accomplish this work we consider a scenario with data representing average values for: dwelling’s surface, location, finishing works. On each step we’ll make a reference to the earthquake on March 4 1977 to see what would happen today if a similar event occurred. The value of Bucharest housing stock will be determined taking firstly the market value, then the replacement value and ultimately the real value to quantify potential damages. Through this approach we can find the insurance coverage of potential losses and also the uncovered gap. A solution that may be taken into account by public authorities, for example by Bucharest City Hall will be offered: in case such an event occurs the impossibility of paying compensations to insured people, rebuilding infrastructure and public buildings and helping the suffering persons should be avoided. An actively public-private partnership should be created between government authorities, the Natural Disaster Insurance Pool, private

  2. INSAR observations of the DPRK event series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mellors, R. J.; Ford, S. R.; Walter, W. R.

    2017-12-01

    Interferometric synthetic aperture radar (INSAR) data have revealed signals associated with the recent DPRK events in 2016 and 2017. These signals include decorrelation and indications of subsidence. Both standard phase differences and amplitude offsets are calculated. We show results of INSAR analysis as conducted using C and L band data and investigate the causes of the decorrelation (e.g. subsidence, landslide, or spall) and compare the observed signal with numerical models of deformation and seismic observations. A time series approach is applied to constrain post-event deformation at the weeks to months' timescale. We compare the INSAR observations of the DPRK tests with previous observations of events at other source regions using ERS archive data, which revealed a variety of post-seismic signatures. The signatures are evaluated with respect to the known geology and causes, including long-term surface relaxation and possible groundwater/thermal effects. Particular focus is on the sites on Pahute and Rainier Mesa, which displayed long-term subsidence signals that extended for several years after the explosions. This work was performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344. Lawrence Livermore National Security, LLC

  3. Validation in the Absence of Observed Events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lathrop, John; Ezell, Barry

    2016-04-01

    This article addresses the problem of validating models in the absence of observed events, in the area of weapons of mass destruction terrorism risk assessment. We address that problem with a broadened definition of "validation," based on stepping "up" a level to considering the reason why decisionmakers seek validation, and from that basis redefine validation as testing how well the model can advise decisionmakers in terrorism risk management decisions. We develop that into two conditions: validation must be based on cues available in the observable world; and it must focus on what can be done to affect that observable world, i.e., risk management. That leads to two foci: (1) the real-world risk generating process, and (2) best use of available data. Based on our experience with nine WMD terrorism risk assessment models, we then describe three best use of available data pitfalls: SME confidence bias, lack of SME cross-referencing, and problematic initiation rates. Those two foci and three pitfalls provide a basis from which we define validation in this context in terms of four tests--Does the model: … capture initiation? … capture the sequence of events by which attack scenarios unfold? … consider unanticipated scenarios? … consider alternative causal chains? Finally, we corroborate our approach against three validation tests from the DOD literature: Is the model a correct representation of the process to be simulated? To what degree are the model results comparable to the real world? Over what range of inputs are the model results useful? © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

  4. Brain urea increase is an early Huntington's disease pathogenic event observed in a prodromal transgenic sheep model and HD cases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Handley, Renee R; Reid, Suzanne J; Brauning, Rudiger; Maclean, Paul; Mears, Emily R; Fourie, Imche; Patassini, Stefano; Cooper, Garth J S; Rudiger, Skye R; McLaughlan, Clive J; Verma, Paul J; Gusella, James F; MacDonald, Marcy E; Waldvogel, Henry J; Bawden, C Simon; Faull, Richard L M; Snell, Russell G

    2017-12-26

    The neurodegenerative disorder Huntington's disease (HD) is typically characterized by extensive loss of striatal neurons and the midlife onset of debilitating and progressive chorea, dementia, and psychological disturbance. HD is caused by a CAG repeat expansion in the Huntingtin ( HTT ) gene, translating to an elongated glutamine tract in the huntingtin protein. The pathogenic mechanism resulting in cell dysfunction and death beyond the causative mutation is not well defined. To further delineate the early molecular events in HD, we performed RNA-sequencing (RNA-seq) on striatal tissue from a cohort of 5-y-old OVT73 -line sheep expressing a human CAG-expansion HTT cDNA transgene. Our HD OVT73 sheep are a prodromal model and exhibit minimal pathology and no detectable neuronal loss. We identified significantly increased levels of the urea transporter SLC14A1 in the OVT73 striatum, along with other important osmotic regulators. Further investigation revealed elevated levels of the metabolite urea in the OVT73 striatum and cerebellum, consistent with our recently published observation of increased urea in postmortem human brain from HD cases. Extending that finding, we demonstrate that postmortem human brain urea levels are elevated in a larger cohort of HD cases, including those with low-level neuropathology (Vonsattel grade 0/1). This elevation indicates increased protein catabolism, possibly as an alternate energy source given the generalized metabolic defect in HD. Increased urea and ammonia levels due to dysregulation of the urea cycle are known to cause neurologic impairment. Taken together, our findings indicate that aberrant urea metabolism could be the primary biochemical disruption initiating neuropathogenesis in HD.

  5. VLF Observation of Long Ionospheric Recovery Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cotts, B. R.; Inan, U. S.

    2006-12-01

    On the evening of 20 November 1992, three early/fast events were observed on the great circle path (GCP) from the NAU transmitter in Puerto Rico to Gander (GA), Newfoundland. These events were found to have significantly longer recovery times (up to 20 minutes) than any previously documented events. Typical early/fast events and Lightning-induced Electron Precipitation (LEP) events affect the D-region ionosphere near the night-time VLF-reflection height of ~85 km and exhibit recovery to pre-event levels of gigantic jets. In this context, preliminary results indicate that the lightning-associated VLF long recovery events appear to be more common in oceanic thunderstorms. In this paper, we present occurrence statistics and other measured properties of VLF long recovery events, observed on all-sea based and land based VLF great circle paths.

  6. Modeling Documents with Event Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Longhui Wang

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Currently deep learning has made great breakthroughs in visual and speech processing, mainly because it draws lessons from the hierarchical mode that brain deals with images and speech. In the field of NLP, a topic model is one of the important ways for modeling documents. Topic models are built on a generative model that clearly does not match the way humans write. In this paper, we propose Event Model, which is unsupervised and based on the language processing mechanism of neurolinguistics, to model documents. In Event Model, documents are descriptions of concrete or abstract events seen, heard, or sensed by people and words are objects in the events. Event Model has two stages: word learning and dimensionality reduction. Word learning is to learn semantics of words based on deep learning. Dimensionality reduction is the process that representing a document as a low dimensional vector by a linear mode that is completely different from topic models. Event Model achieves state-of-the-art results on document retrieval tasks.

  7. Physics and observations of tidal disruption events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mangalam, Arun; Mageshwaran, Tamilan

    2018-04-01

    We describe a model of tidal disruption events (TDEs) with input physical parameters that include the black hole (BH) mass M•, the specific orbital energy E, the angular momentum J, the star mass M⊙ and radius R⊙. We calculate the rise time of the TDEs, the peak bolometric luminosity in terms of these physical parameters and a typical light curve of TDEs for various All Sky Survey (ASS) and Deep Sky Survey (DSS) missions. We then derive the expected detection rates and discuss the follow up of TDEs through observations in various spectral bands from X-rays to radio wavelengths.

  8. Observing and modeling the spectrum of a slow slip event: Constraints on the scaling of slow slip and tremor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hawthorne, J. C.; Bartlow, N. M.; Ghosh, A.

    2017-12-01

    We estimate the normalized moment rate spectrum of a slow slip event in Cascadia and then attempt to reproduce it. Our goal is to further assess whether a single physical mechanism could govern slow slip and tremor events, with durations that span 6 orders of magnitude, so we construct the spectrum by parameterizing a large slow slip event as the sum of a number of subevents with various durations. The spectrum estimate uses data from three sources: the GPS-based slip inversion of Bartlow et al (2011), PBO borehole strain measurements, and beamforming-based tremor moment estimates of Ghosh et al (2009). We find that at periods shorter than 1 day, the moment rate power spectrum decays as frequencyn, where n is between 0.7 and 1.4 when measured from strain and between 1.2 and 1.4 when inferred from tremor. The spectrum appears roughly flat at periods of 1 to 10 days, as both the 1-day-period strain and tremor data and the 6-day-period slip inversion data imply a moment rate power of 0.02 times the the total moment squared. We demonstrate one way to reproduce this spectrum: by constructing the large-scale slow slip event as the sum of a series of subevents. The shortest of these subevents could be interpreted as VLFEs or even LFEs, while longer subevents might represent the aseismic slip that drives rapid tremor reverals, streaks, or rapid tremor migrations. We pick the subevent magnitudes from a Gutenberg-Richter distribution and place the events randomly throughout a 30-day interval. Then we assign each subevent a duration that scales with its moment to a specified power. Finally, we create a moment rate function for each subevent and sum all of the moment rates. We compute the summed slow slip moment rate spectra with two approaches: a time-domain numerical computation and a frequency-domain analytical summation. Several sets of subevent parameters can allow the constructed slow slip event to match the observed spectrum. One allowable set of parameters is of

  9. PULSAR OBSERVATIONS OF EXTREME SCATTERING EVENTS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coles, W. A.; Kerr, M.; Shannon, R. M.; Hobbs, G. B.; Manchester, R. N.; Dai, S.; Ravi, V.; Reardon, D.; Toomey, L.; Zhu, X. J.; You, X.-P.; Bailes, M.; Straten, W. van; Bhat, N. D. R.; Burke-Spolaor, S.; Keith, M. J.; Levin, Y.; Osłowski, S.; Wang, J. B.; Wen, L.

    2015-01-01

    Extreme scattering events (ESEs) in the interstellar medium (ISM) were first observed in regular flux measurements of compact extragalactic sources. They are characterized by a flux variation over a period of weeks, suggesting the passage of a “diverging plasma lens” across the line of sight (LOS). Modeling the refraction of such a lens indicates that the structure size must be of the order of AU and the electron density of the order of 10s of cm −3 . Similar structures have been observed in measurements of pulsar intensity scintillation and group delay. Here we report observations of two ESEs, showing increases in both intensity scintillation and dispersion made with the Parkes Pulsar Timing Array. These allow us to make more complete models of the ESE, including an estimate of the “outer-scale” of the turbulence in the plasma lens. These observations clearly show that the ESE structure is fully turbulent on an AU scale. They provide some support for the idea that the structures are extended along the LOS, such as would be the case for a scattering shell. The dispersion measurements also show a variety of AU scale structures that would not be called ESEs, yet involve electron density variations typical of ESEs and likely have the same origin

  10. Pulsar Observations of Extreme Scattering Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coles, W. A.; Kerr, M.; Shannon, R. M.; Hobbs, G. B.; Manchester, R. N.; You, X.-P.; Bailes, M.; Bhat, N. D. R.; Burke-Spolaor, S.; Dai, S.; Keith, M. J.; Levin, Y.; Osłowski, S.; Ravi, V.; Reardon, D.; Toomey, L.; van Straten, W.; Wang, J. B.; Wen, L.; Zhu, X. J.

    2015-08-01

    Extreme scattering events (ESEs) in the interstellar medium (ISM) were first observed in regular flux measurements of compact extragalactic sources. They are characterized by a flux variation over a period of weeks, suggesting the passage of a “diverging plasma lens” across the line of sight (LOS). Modeling the refraction of such a lens indicates that the structure size must be of the order of AU and the electron density of the order of 10s of cm-3. Similar structures have been observed in measurements of pulsar intensity scintillation and group delay. Here we report observations of two ESEs, showing increases in both intensity scintillation and dispersion made with the Parkes Pulsar Timing Array. These allow us to make more complete models of the ESE, including an estimate of the “outer-scale” of the turbulence in the plasma lens. These observations clearly show that the ESE structure is fully turbulent on an AU scale. They provide some support for the idea that the structures are extended along the LOS, such as would be the case for a scattering shell. The dispersion measurements also show a variety of AU scale structures that would not be called ESEs, yet involve electron density variations typical of ESEs and likely have the same origin.

  11. PULSAR OBSERVATIONS OF EXTREME SCATTERING EVENTS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Coles, W. A. [ECE Department, University of California at San Diego, La Jolla, CA, 92093-0407 (United States); Kerr, M.; Shannon, R. M.; Hobbs, G. B.; Manchester, R. N.; Dai, S.; Ravi, V.; Reardon, D.; Toomey, L.; Zhu, X. J. [ATNF, CSIRO Astronomy and Space Science, P.O. Box 76, Epping, NSW 1710 (Australia); You, X.-P. [Southwest University, Chongqing (China); Bailes, M.; Straten, W. van [Centre for Astrophysics and Supercomputing, Swinburne University of Technology, P.O. Box 218, Hawthorn, VIC 3122 (Australia); Bhat, N. D. R. [International Centre for Radio Astronomy Research, Curtin University, Bentley, WA 6102 (Australia); Burke-Spolaor, S. [California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, 1200 E California Boulevard, CA 91125 (United States); Keith, M. J. [Jodrell Bank Centre for Astrophysics, School of Physics and Astronomy, The University of Manchester, Manchester M13 9PL (United Kingdom); Levin, Y. [Monash Center for Astrophysics, School of Physics and Astronomy, Monash University, Vic 3800 (Australia); Osłowski, S. [Max-Planck-Institut für Radioastronomie, Auf dem Hügel 69, D-53121 Bonn (Germany); Wang, J. B. [Xinjiang Astronomical Observatory, Chinese Academy of Science, 150 Science 1-Street, Urumqi, Xinjiang, 830011 (China); Wen, L., E-mail: bcoles@ucsd.edu [University of Western Australia, 35 Stirling Highway, Crawley, WA 6009 (Australia)

    2015-08-01

    Extreme scattering events (ESEs) in the interstellar medium (ISM) were first observed in regular flux measurements of compact extragalactic sources. They are characterized by a flux variation over a period of weeks, suggesting the passage of a “diverging plasma lens” across the line of sight (LOS). Modeling the refraction of such a lens indicates that the structure size must be of the order of AU and the electron density of the order of 10s of cm{sup −3}. Similar structures have been observed in measurements of pulsar intensity scintillation and group delay. Here we report observations of two ESEs, showing increases in both intensity scintillation and dispersion made with the Parkes Pulsar Timing Array. These allow us to make more complete models of the ESE, including an estimate of the “outer-scale” of the turbulence in the plasma lens. These observations clearly show that the ESE structure is fully turbulent on an AU scale. They provide some support for the idea that the structures are extended along the LOS, such as would be the case for a scattering shell. The dispersion measurements also show a variety of AU scale structures that would not be called ESEs, yet involve electron density variations typical of ESEs and likely have the same origin.

  12. Event-Based Conceptual Modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bækgaard, Lars

    2009-01-01

    The purpose of the paper is to obtain insight into and provide practical advice for event-based conceptual modeling. We analyze a set of event concepts and use the results to formulate a conceptual event model that is used to identify guidelines for creation of dynamic process models and static...... information models. We characterize events as short-duration processes that have participants, consequences, and properties, and that may be modeled in terms of information structures. The conceptual event model is used to characterize a variety of event concepts and it is used to illustrate how events can...... be used to integrate dynamic modeling of processes and static modeling of information structures. The results are unique in the sense that no other general event concept has been used to unify a similar broad variety of seemingly incompatible event concepts. The general event concept can be used...

  13. Evolution of Precipitation Structure During the November DYNAMO MJO Event: Cloud-Resolving Model Intercomparison and Cross Validation Using Radar Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Xiaowen; Janiga, Matthew A.; Wang, Shuguang; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Rowe, Angela; Xu, Weixin; Liu, Chuntao; Matsui, Toshihisa; Zhang, Chidong

    2018-04-01

    Evolution of precipitation structures are simulated and compared with radar observations for the November Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) event during the DYNAmics of the MJO (DYNAMO) field campaign. Three ground-based, ship-borne, and spaceborne precipitation radars and three cloud-resolving models (CRMs) driven by observed large-scale forcing are used to study precipitation structures at different locations over the central equatorial Indian Ocean. Convective strength is represented by 0-dBZ echo-top heights, and convective organization by contiguous 17-dBZ areas. The multi-radar and multi-model framework allows for more stringent model validations. The emphasis is on testing models' ability to simulate subtle differences observed at different radar sites when the MJO event passed through. The results show that CRMs forced by site-specific large-scale forcing can reproduce not only common features in cloud populations but also subtle variations observed by different radars. The comparisons also revealed common deficiencies in CRM simulations where they underestimate radar echo-top heights for the strongest convection within large, organized precipitation features. Cross validations with multiple radars and models also enable quantitative comparisons in CRM sensitivity studies using different large-scale forcing, microphysical schemes and parameters, resolutions, and domain sizes. In terms of radar echo-top height temporal variations, many model sensitivity tests have better correlations than radar/model comparisons, indicating robustness in model performance on this aspect. It is further shown that well-validated model simulations could be used to constrain uncertainties in observed echo-top heights when the low-resolution surveillance scanning strategy is used.

  14. Observed and modelled effects of auroral precipitation on the thermal ionospheric plasma: comparing the MICA and Cascades2 sounding rocket events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lynch, K. A.; Gayetsky, L.; Fernandes, P. A.; Zettergren, M. D.; Lessard, M.; Cohen, I. J.; Hampton, D. L.; Ahrns, J.; Hysell, D. L.; Powell, S.; Miceli, R. J.; Moen, J. I.; Bekkeng, T.

    2012-12-01

    Auroral precipitation can modify the ionospheric thermal plasma through a variety of processes. We examine and compare the events seen by two recent auroral sounding rockets carrying in situ thermal plasma instrumentation. The Cascades2 sounding rocket (March 2009, Poker Flat Research Range) traversed a pre-midnight poleward boundary intensification (PBI) event distinguished by a stationary Alfvenic curtain of field-aligned precipitation. The MICA sounding rocket (February 2012, Poker Flat Research Range) traveled through irregular precipitation following the passage of a strong westward-travelling surge. Previous modelling of the ionospheric effects of auroral precipitation used a one-dimensional model, TRANSCAR, which had a simplified treatment of electric fields and did not have the benefit of in situ thermal plasma data. This new study uses a new two-dimensional model which self-consistently calculates electric fields to explore both spatial and temporal effects, and compares to thermal plasma observations. A rigorous understanding of the ambient thermal plasma parameters and their effects on the local spacecraft sheath and charging, is required for quantitative interpretation of in situ thermal plasma observations. To complement this TRANSCAR analysis we therefore require a reliable means of interpreting in situ thermal plasma observation. This interpretation depends upon a rigorous plasma sheath model since the ambient ion energy is on the order of the spacecraft's sheath energy. A self-consistent PIC model is used to model the spacecraft sheath, and a test-particle approach then predicts the detector response for a given plasma environment. The model parameters are then modified until agreement is found with the in situ data. We find that for some situations, the thermal plasma parameters are strongly driven by the precipitation at the observation time. For other situations, the previous history of the precipitation at that position can have a stronger

  15. Exploring the influence of citizen involvement on the assimilation of crowdsourced observations: a modelling study based on the 2013 flood event in the Bacchiglione catchment (Italy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mazzoleni, Maurizio; Cortes Arevalo, Vivian Juliette; Wehn, Uta; Alfonso, Leonardo; Norbiato, Daniele; Monego, Martina; Ferri, Michele; Solomatine, Dimitri P.

    2018-01-01

    To improve hydrological predictions, real-time measurements derived from traditional physical sensors are integrated within mathematic models. Recently, traditional sensors are being complemented with crowdsourced data (social sensors). Although measurements from social sensors can be low cost and more spatially distributed, other factors like spatial variability of citizen involvement, decreasing involvement over time, variable observations accuracy and feasibility for model assimilation play an important role in accurate flood predictions. Only a few studies have investigated the benefit of assimilating uncertain crowdsourced data in hydrological and hydraulic models. In this study, we investigate the usefulness of assimilating crowdsourced observations from a heterogeneous network of static physical, static social and dynamic social sensors. We assess improvements in the model prediction performance for different spatial-temporal scenarios of citizen involvement levels. To that end, we simulate an extreme flood event that occurred in the Bacchiglione catchment (Italy) in May 2013 using a semi-distributed hydrological model with the station at Ponte degli Angeli (Vicenza) as the prediction-validation point. A conceptual hydrological model is implemented by the Alto Adriatico Water Authority and it is used to estimate runoff from the different sub-catchments, while a hydraulic model is implemented to propagate the flow along the river reach. In both models, a Kalman filter is implemented to assimilate the crowdsourced observations. Synthetic crowdsourced observations are generated for either static social or dynamic social sensors because these measures were not available at the time of the study. We consider two sets of experiments: (i) assuming random probability of receiving crowdsourced observations and (ii) using theoretical scenarios of citizen motivations, and consequent involvement levels, based on population distribution. The results demonstrate the

  16. Event-Based Conceptual Modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bækgaard, Lars

    The paper demonstrates that a wide variety of event-based modeling approaches are based on special cases of the same general event concept, and that the general event concept can be used to unify the otherwise unrelated fields of information modeling and process modeling. A set of event......-based modeling approaches are analyzed and the results are used to formulate a general event concept that can be used for unifying the seemingly unrelated event concepts. Events are characterized as short-duration processes that have participants, consequences, and properties, and that may be modeled in terms...... of information structures. The general event concept can be used to guide systems analysis and design and to improve modeling approaches....

  17. Coupling an aerosol box model with one-dimensional flow: a tool for understanding observations of new particle formation events

    OpenAIRE

    Kivekäs, N.; Carpman, J.; Roldin, P.; Leppä, J.; O'Connor, E. J.; Kristensson, A.; Asmi, E.

    2016-01-01

    Field observations of new particle formation and the subsequent particle growth are typically only possible at a fixed measurement location, and hence do not follow the temporal evolution of an air parcel in a Lagrangian sense. Standard analysis for determining formation and growth rates requires that the time-dependent formation rate and growth rate of the particles are spatially invariant; air parcel advection means that the observed temporal evolution of the particle size distribution at a...

  18. The Solar Energetic Particle Event of 2010 August 14: Connectivity with the Solar Source Inferred from Multiple Spacecraft Observations and Modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lario, D.; Kwon, R.-Y.; Raouafi, N. E. [The Johns Hopkins University, Applied Physics Laboratory, 11100 Johns Hopkins Road, Laurel, MD 20723 (United States); Richardson, I. G.; Thompson, B. J.; Rosenvinge, T. T. von; Mays, M. L.; Mäkelä, P. A.; Xie, H.; Thakur, N. [NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD 20771 (United States); Bain, H. M. [Space Sciences Laboratory, UC Berkeley, 7 Gauss Way, Berkeley, CA 94720-7450 (United States); Zhang, M.; Zhao, L. [Department of Physics and Space Sciences, Florida Institute of Technology, Melbourne, FL (United States); Cane, H. V. [Department of Mathematics and Physics, University of Tasmania, Hobart (Australia); Papaioannou, A. [Institute for Astronomy, Astrophysics, Space Applications and Remote Sensing, National Observatory of Athens, GR-15 236 Penteli (Greece); Riley, P., E-mail: david.lario@jhuapl.edu [Predictive Science, 9990 Mesa Rim Road, Suite 170, San Diego, CA 92121 (United States)

    2017-03-20

    We analyze one of the first solar energetic particle (SEP) events of solar cycle 24 observed at widely separated spacecraft in order to assess the reliability of models currently used to determine the connectivity between the sources of SEPs at the Sun and spacecraft in the inner heliosphere. This SEP event was observed on 2010 August 14 by near-Earth spacecraft, STEREO-A (∼80° west of Earth) and STEREO-B (∼72° east of Earth). In contrast to near-Earth spacecraft, the footpoints of the nominal magnetic field lines connecting STEREO-A and STEREO-B with the Sun were separated from the region where the parent fast halo coronal mass ejection (CME) originated by ∼88° and ∼47° in longitude, respectively. We discuss the properties of the phenomena associated with this solar eruption. Extreme ultraviolet and white-light images are used to specify the extent of the associated CME-driven coronal shock. We then assess whether the SEPs observed at the three heliospheric locations were accelerated by this shock or whether transport mechanisms in the corona and/or interplanetary space provide an alternative explanation for the arrival of particles at the poorly connected spacecraft. A possible scenario consistent with the observations indicates that the observation of SEPs at STEREO-B and near Earth resulted from particle injection by the CME shock onto the field lines connecting to these spacecraft, whereas SEPs reached STEREO-A mostly via cross-field diffusive transport processes. The successes, limitations, and uncertainties of the methods used to resolve the connection between the acceleration sites of SEPs and the spacecraft are evaluated.

  19. Observed Variability of Tsunamigenic Potential of Enormous Submarine Landslides Explained Through Modeling - A Comparison of the Holocene Storegga and Trænadjupet Events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Løvholt, F.; Kim, J.; Laberg, J. S.

    2016-12-01

    The continental margin offshore Norway have experienced a range of giant submarine landslides having volumes ranging from hundreds to thousands of km3. The most recent and well documented of these events, are the 4500 BP Trænadjupet and the 8100 BP Storegga landslides. Both of these landslides are clay-rich, and involve common features such as retrogressive mass and momentum release mechanisms and weak layers that affect the tsunami generation. The retrogressive behaviour involved the release of several slide blocks which made the multistage failure and landslide evolution complex. The Storegga Slide reveals a rich and well documented onshore footprint in terms of paleotsunami deposits along the coastlines of Denmark, UK, the Faroe Islands, and Norway. In striking contrast, there exists no firm evidence of similar paleotsunami deposits from the younger Trænadjupet landslide. Here, we use a suit of new retrogressive and viscoplastic landslide models to simulate the run-out of both of these landslide events, and then couple the landslide to dispersive tsunami models. By using the new landslide models, we are able to obtain a better agreement with the observed paleotsunami deposits from the Storegga Slide compared to previous studies, and at the same time, to link the results to a landslide model that comply better with the slide morphology. Using the landslide model and soil parameters established for the Storegga Slide as the starting point, we set up a similar set of model scenarios for the Trænadjupet Slide. We discuss how the scenarios for the Trænadjupet landslide with different soil parameters produce different landslide velocities and tsunami heights. We then compare the resulting tsunami heights with constraints from the lack of onshore tsunami observations taking into account the contemporary shoreline position. Finally we briefly discuss the findings from the modeling in terms of both differences in tsunami observations and landslide morphology. The

  20. Observation of monojet events and tentative interpretation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buskulic, D.; Casper, D.; de Bonis, I.; Decamp, D.; Ghez, P.; Goy, C.; Lees, J.-P.; Minard, M.-N.; Odier, P.; Pietrzyk, B.; Ariztazabal, F.; Chmeissani, M.; Crespo, J. M.; Efthymiopoulos, I.; Fernandez, E.; Fernandez-Bosman, M.; Gaitan, V.; Garrido, Ll.; Martinez, M.; Mattison, T.; Orteu, S.; Pacheco, A.; Padilla, C.; Palla, F.; Pascual, A.; Perlas, J. A.; Teubert, F.; Creanza, D.; de Palma, M.; Farilla, A.; Iaselli, G.; Maggi, G.; Marinelli, N.; Natali, S.; Nuzzo, S.; Ranieri, A.; Raso, G.; Romano, F.; Ruggieri, F.; Selvaggi, G.; Silvestris, L.; Tempesta, P.; Zito, G.; Chai, Y.; Huang, D.; Huang, X.; Lin, J.; Wang, T.; Xie, Y.; Xu, D.; Zhang, J.; Zhang, L.; Zhao, W.; Donvicini, G.; Boudreau, J.; Comas, P.; Coyle, P.; Drevermann, H.; Engelhardt, A.; Foà, L.; Forty, R. W.; Ganis, G.; Gay, C.; Girone, M.; Hagelberg, R.; Harvey, J.; Jacobsen, R.; Jost, B.; Knobloch, J.; Lehraus, I.; Maggi, M.; Markou, C.; Martin, E. B.; Mato, P.; Meinhard, H.; Minten, A.; Miquel, R.; Palazzi, P.; Pater, J. R.; Perrodo, P.; Pusztaszeri, J.-F.; Ranjard, F.; Rolandi, L.; Rothberg, J.; Saich, M.; Schlatter, D.; Schmelling, M.; Tejessy, W.; Tomalin, I. R.; Veenhof, R.; Venturi, A.; Wachsmuth, H.; Wasserbaech, S.; Wiedenmann, W.; Wildish, T.; Witzeling, W.; Wotschack, J.; Ajaltouni, Z.; Bardadin-Otwinowska, M.; Barres, A.; Boyer, C.; Falvard, A.; Gay, P.; Guicheney, C.; Henrard, P.; Jousset, J.; Michel, B.; Montret, J.-C.; Pallin, D.; Perret, P.; Podlyski, F.; Proriol, J.; Saadi, F.; Fearnley, T.; Hansen, J. B.; Hansen, J. D.; Hansen, J. R.; Hansen, P. H.; Johnson, S. D.; Møllerud, R.; Nilsson, B. S.; Kyriakis, A.; Simopoulou, E.; Siotis, I.; Vayaki, A.; Zachariadou, K.; Blondel, A.; Bonneaud, G.; Brient, J. C.; Bourdon, P.; Passalacqua, L.; Rougé, A.; Rumpf, M.; Tanaka, R.; Valassi, A.; Verderi, M.; Videau, H.; Candlin, D. J.; Parsons, M. I.; Veitch, E.; Focardi, E.; Parrini, G.; Corden, M.; Delfino, M.; Georgiopoulos, C.; Jaffe, D. E.; Levinthal, D.; Antonelli, A.; Bencivenni, G.; Bologna, G.; Bossi, F.; Campana, P.; Capon, G.; Cerutti, F.; Chiarella, V.; Felici, G.; Laurelli, P.; Mannocchi, G.; Murtas, F.; Murtas, G. P.; Pepe-Altarelli, M.; Salomone, S.; Colrain, P.; Ten Have, I.; Knowles, I. G.; Lynch, J. G.; Maitland, W.; Morton, W. T.; Raine, C.; Reeves, P.; Scarr, J. M.; Smith, K.; Smith, M. G.; Thompson, A. S.; Thorn, S.; Turnbull, R. M.; Becker, U.; Braun, O.; Geweniger, C.; Hanke, P.; Hepp, V.; Kluge, E. E.; Putzer, A.; Rensch, B.; Schmidt, M.; Stenzel, H.; Tittel, K.; Wunsch, M.; Beuselinck, R.; Binnie, D. M.; Cameron, W.; Cattaneo, M.; Colling, D. J.; Dornan, P. J.; Hassard, J. F.; Konstantinidis, N.; Moneta, L.; Moutoussi, A.; Nash, J.; Payne, D. G.; San Martin, G.; Sedgbeer, J. K.; Wright, A. G.; Girtler, P.; Kuhn, D.; Rudolph, G.; Vogl, R.; Bowdery, C. K.; Brodbeck, T. J.; Finch, A. J.; Foster, F.; Hughes, G.; Jackson, D.; Keemer, N. R.; Nuttall, M.; Patel, A.; Sloan, T.; Snow, S. W.; Whelan, E. P.; Galla, A.; Greene, A. M.; Kleinknecht, K.; Raab, J.; Renk, B.; Sander, H.-G.; Schmidt, H.; Walther, S. M.; Wanke, R.; Wolf, B.; Bencheikh, A. M.; Benchouk, C.; Bonissent, A.; Calvet, D.; Carr, J.; Diaconu, C.; Etienne, F.; Nicod, D.; Payre, P.; Roos, L.; Rousseau, D.; Schwemling, P.; Talby, M.; Abt, I.; Adlung, S.; Assmann, R.; Bauer, C.; Blum, W.; Brown, D.; Cattaneo, P.; Dehning, B.; Dietl, H.; Dydak, F.; Frank, M.; Halley, A. W.; Jakobs, K.; Kroha, H.; Lauber, J.; Lütjens, G.; Lutz, G.; Männer, W.; Moser, H.-G.; Richter, R.; Schröder, J.; Schwarz, A. S.; Settles, R.; Seywerd, H.; Stierlin, U.; Stiegler, U.; St. Denis, R.; Wolf, G.; Alemany, R.; Boucrot, J.; Callot, O.; Cordier, A.; Courault, F.; Davier, M.; Duflot, L.; Grivaz, J.-F.; Heusse, Ph.; Jacquet, M.; Janot, P.; Kim, D. W.; Le Diberder, F.; Lefrançois, J.; Lutz, A.-M.; Musolino, G.; Nikolic, I.; Park, H. J.; Park, I. C.; Schune, M.-H.; Simion, S.; Veillet, J.-J.; Videau, I.; Abbaneo, D.; Bagliwsi, G.; Batignani, G.; Bottigli, U.; Bozzi, C.; Calderini, G.; Carpinelli, M.; Ciocci, M. A.; Ciulli, V.; Dell'Orso, R.; Ferrante, I.; Fidecaro, F.; Forti, F.; Giassi, A.; Giorgi, M. A.; Gregorio, A.; Ligabue, F.; Lusiani, A.; Marrocchesi, P. S.; Messineo, A.; Rizzo, G.; Sanguinetti, G.; Spagnolo, P.; Steinberger, J.; Tenchini, R.; Tonelli, G.; Triggiani, G.; Vannini, C.; Verdini, P. G.; Walsh, J.; Betteridge, A. P.; Gao, Y.; Green, M. G.; Johnson, D. L.; March, P. V.; Medcalf, T.; Mir, Ll. M.; Quazi, I. S.; Strong, J. A.; Bertin, V.; Botterill, D. R.; Clifft, R. W.; Edgecock, T. R.; Haywood, S.; Edwards, M.; Norton, P. R.; Thompson, J. C.; Bloch-Devaux, B.; Colas, P.; Duarte, H.; Emery, S.; Kozanecki, W.; Lançon, E.; Lemaire, M. C.; Locci, E.; Marx, B.; Perez, P.; Rander, J.; Renardy, J.-F.; Rosowsky, A.; Roussarie, A.; Schuller, J.-P.; Schwindling, J.; Si Mohand, D.; Vallage, B.; Johnson, R. P.; Litke, A. M.; Taylor, G.; Wear, J.; Beddall, A.; Booth, C. N.; Cartwright, S.; Combley, F.; Dawson, I.; Koksal, A.; Rankin, C.; Thompson, L. F.; Böhrer, A.; Brandt, S.; Cowan, G.; Feigl, E.; Grupen, C.; Lutters, G.; Minguet-Rodriguez, J.; Rivera, F.; Saraiva, P.; Schäfer, U.; Smolik, L.; Bosisio, L.; Della Marina, R.; Giannini, G.; Gobbo, B.; Pitis, L.; Ragusa, F.; Bellantoni, L.; Conway, J. S.; Feng, Z.; Ferguson, D. P. S.; Gao, Y. S.; Grahl, J.; Harton, J. L.; Hayes, O. J.; Hu, H.; Nachtman, J. M.; Pan, Y. B.; Saadi, Y.; Schmitt, M.; Scott, I.; Sharma, V.; Turk, J. D.; Walsh, A. M.; Weber, F. V.; San Lan Wu; Wu, X.; Yamartino, J. M.; Zheng, M.; Zobernig, G.; Aleph Collaboration

    1994-08-01

    A data sample corresponding to almost two million hadronic Z decays collected by the ALEPH detector at LEP has been searched for monojet events. Three events were found, in agreement with the expectation from the process ee→γ*vvbar, with γ*→ffbar. Two events are hadronic, the third one being an e+e- pair. All monojet masses are in excess of 3 GeV/c2, and two of the event have large transverse momenta: 18.5 and 20.3 GeV/c. These kinematic characteristics are quite unlikely in the process ee→γ*vvbar. The probability of their occurence increases substantially when processes involving further Z or W exchanges are taken into account, but still remains at the 5% level.

  1. A new type of ion injection event observed by Viking

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yamauchi, M.; Lundin, R.; Woch, J.; Shapshak, M.; Elphinstone, R.

    1993-01-01

    The authors report on the observation of a new type of ion injection event observed by Viking spacecraft several degrees equatorward of the cusp. Its signature seems considerably different than previously reported events such as flux transfer events or impulsive or transient magnetosheath plasma injection events. It consists of low energy ions, as the pattern drops sharply above 100 to 200 eV

  2. Modelling macroseismic observations for historical earthquakes: the cases of the M = 7.0, 1954 Sofades and M = 6.8, 1957 Velestino events (central Greece)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papazachos, Giannis; Papazachos, Costas; Skarlatoudis, Andreas; Kkallas, Harris; Lekkas, Efthimios

    2016-01-01

    We attempt to model the spatial distribution of the strong ground motion for the large M = 7.0, 1954 Sofades and M = 6.8, 1957 Velestino events (southern Thessaly basin, central Greece), using the macroseismic intensities ( I M M up to 9+) observed within the broader Thessaly area. For this reason, we employ a modified stochastic method realised by the EXSIM algorithm for extended sources, in order to reproduce the damage distribution of these earthquakes, in an attempt to combine existing earthquake information and appropriate scaling relations with surface geology and to investigate the efficiency of the available macroseismic data. For site-effects assessment, we use a new digital geological map of the broader Thessaly basin, where geological formations are grouped by age and mapped on appropriate NEHRP soil classes. Using the previous approach, we estimate synthetic time series for different rupture scenarios and employ various calibrating relations between PGA/PGV and macroseismic intensity, allowing the generation of synthetic (stochastic) isoseismals. Also, different site amplification factors proposed for the broader Aegean area, according to local geology, are tested. Finally, we also perform a sensitivity analysis of the fault location, taking into account the available neotectonic data for the broader southern Thessaly fault zone. The finally determined fault locations are different than previously proposed, in agreement with the available neotectonic information. The observed macroseismic intensities are in good agreement with the ones derived from the synthetic waveforms, verifying both the usefulness of the approach, as well as of the macroseismic data used. Finally, site-effects show clear correlation with the geological classification employed, with constant amplification factors for each soil class generally providing better results than generic transfer functions.

  3. Construction and Updating of Event Models in Auditory Event Processing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huff, Markus; Maurer, Annika E.; Brich, Irina; Pagenkopf, Anne; Wickelmaier, Florian; Papenmeier, Frank

    2018-01-01

    Humans segment the continuous stream of sensory information into distinct events at points of change. Between 2 events, humans perceive an event boundary. Present theories propose changes in the sensory information to trigger updating processes of the present event model. Increased encoding effort finally leads to a memory benefit at event…

  4. Analyzing time-ordered event data with missed observations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dokter, Adriaan M.; van Loon, E. Emiel; Fokkema, Wimke; Lameris, Thomas K.; Nolet, Bart A.; van der Jeugd, Henk P.

    2017-01-01

    A common problem with observational datasets is that not all events of interest may be detected. For example, observing animals in the wild can difficult when animals move, hide, or cannot be closely approached. We consider time series of events recorded in conditions where events are occasionally

  5. ISOMER: Informative Segment Observations for Multimedia Event Recounting

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sun, C.; Burns, B.; Nevatia, R.; Snoek, C.; Bolles, B.; Myers, G.; Wang, W.; Yeh, E.

    2014-01-01

    This paper describes a system for multimedia event detection and recounting. The goal is to detect a high level event class in unconstrained web videos and generate event oriented summarization for display to users. For this purpose, we detect informative segments and collect observations for them,

  6. Analyzing time-ordered event data with missed observations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dokter, Adriaan M; van Loon, E Emiel; Fokkema, Wimke; Lameris, Thomas K; Nolet, Bart A; van der Jeugd, Henk P

    2017-09-01

    A common problem with observational datasets is that not all events of interest may be detected. For example, observing animals in the wild can difficult when animals move, hide, or cannot be closely approached. We consider time series of events recorded in conditions where events are occasionally missed by observers or observational devices. These time series are not restricted to behavioral protocols, but can be any cyclic or recurring process where discrete outcomes are observed. Undetected events cause biased inferences on the process of interest, and statistical analyses are needed that can identify and correct the compromised detection processes. Missed observations in time series lead to observed time intervals between events at multiples of the true inter-event time, which conveys information on their detection probability. We derive the theoretical probability density function for observed intervals between events that includes a probability of missed detection. Methodology and software tools are provided for analysis of event data with potential observation bias and its removal. The methodology was applied to simulation data and a case study of defecation rate estimation in geese, which is commonly used to estimate their digestive throughput and energetic uptake, or to calculate goose usage of a feeding site from dropping density. Simulations indicate that at a moderate chance to miss arrival events ( p  = 0.3), uncorrected arrival intervals were biased upward by up to a factor 3, while parameter values corrected for missed observations were within 1% of their true simulated value. A field case study shows that not accounting for missed observations leads to substantial underestimates of the true defecation rate in geese, and spurious rate differences between sites, which are introduced by differences in observational conditions. These results show that the derived methodology can be used to effectively remove observational biases in time-ordered event

  7. GPS observations of coseismic deformation following the May 20 and 29, 2012, Emilia seismic events (northern Italy: data, analysis and preliminary models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Enrico Serpelloni

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available In May-July 2012, a seismic sequence struck a broad area of the Po Plain Region in northern Italy. The sequence included two Ml >5.5 mainshocks. The first one (Ml 5.9 occurred near the city of Finale Emilia (ca. 30 km west of Ferrara on May 20 at 02:03:53 (UTC, and the second (Ml 5.8 occurred on May 29 at 7:00:03 (UTC, about 12 km southwest of the May 20 mainshock (Figure 1, near the city of Mirandola. The seismic sequence involved an area that extended in an E-W direction for more than 50 km, and included seven Ml ≥5.0 events and more than 2,300 Ml >1.5 events (http://iside.rm.ingv.it. The focal mechanisms of the main events [Pondrelli et al. 2012, Scognamiglio et al. 2012, this volume] consistently showed compressional kinematics with E-W oriented reverse nodal planes. This sector of the Po Plain is known as a region characterized by slow deformation rates due to the northwards motion of the northern Apennines fold-and-thrust belt, which is buried beneath the sedimentary cover of the Po Plain [Picotti and Pazzaglia 2008, Toscani et al. 2009]. Early global positioning system (GPS measurements [Serpelloni et al. 2006] and the most recent updates [Devoti et al. 2011, Bennett et al. 2012] recognized that less than 2 mm/yr of SW-NE shortening are accommodated across this sector of the Po Plain, in agreement with other present-day stress indicators [Montone et al. 2012] and known active faults [Basili et al. 2008]. In the present study, we describe the GPS data used to study the coseismic deformation related to the May 20 and 29 mainshocks, and provide preliminary models of the two seismic sources, as inverted from consensus GPS coseismic deformation fields. […

  8. Multiple simultaneous event model for radiation carcinogenesis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baum, J.W.

    1976-01-01

    A mathematical model is proposed which postulates that cancer induction is a multi-event process, that these events occur naturally, usually one at a time in any cell, and that radiation frequently causes two of these events to occur simultaneously. Microdosimetric considerations dictate that for high LET radiations the simultaneous events are associated with a single particle or track. The model predicts: (a) linear dose-effect relations for early times after irradiation with small doses, (b) approximate power functions of dose (i.e. Dsup(x)) having exponent less than one for populations of mixed age examined at short times after irradiation with small doses, (c) saturation of effect at either long times after irradiation with small doses or for all times after irradiation with large doses, and (d) a net increase in incidence which is dependent on age of observation but independent of age at irradiation. Data of Vogel, for neutron induced mammary tumors in rats, are used to illustrate the validity of the formulation. This model provides a quantitative framework to explain several unexpected results obtained by Vogel. It also provides a logical framework to explain the dose-effect relations observed in the Japanese survivors of the atomic bombs. (author)

  9. Construction and updating of event models in auditory event processing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huff, Markus; Maurer, Annika E; Brich, Irina; Pagenkopf, Anne; Wickelmaier, Florian; Papenmeier, Frank

    2018-02-01

    Humans segment the continuous stream of sensory information into distinct events at points of change. Between 2 events, humans perceive an event boundary. Present theories propose changes in the sensory information to trigger updating processes of the present event model. Increased encoding effort finally leads to a memory benefit at event boundaries. Evidence from reading time studies (increased reading times with increasing amount of change) suggest that updating of event models is incremental. We present results from 5 experiments that studied event processing (including memory formation processes and reading times) using an audio drama as well as a transcript thereof as stimulus material. Experiments 1a and 1b replicated the event boundary advantage effect for memory. In contrast to recent evidence from studies using visual stimulus material, Experiments 2a and 2b found no support for incremental updating with normally sighted and blind participants for recognition memory. In Experiment 3, we replicated Experiment 2a using a written transcript of the audio drama as stimulus material, allowing us to disentangle encoding and retrieval processes. Our results indicate incremental updating processes at encoding (as measured with reading times). At the same time, we again found recognition performance to be unaffected by the amount of change. We discuss these findings in light of current event cognition theories. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

  10. Trends and characteristics observed in nuclear events based on international nuclear event scale reports

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Watanabe, Norio

    2001-01-01

    The International Nuclear Event Scale (INES) is jointly operated by the IAEA and the OECD-NEA as a means designed for providing prompt, clear and consistent information related to nuclear events, that occurred at nuclear facilities, and facilitating communication between the nuclear community, the media and the public. Nuclear events are reported to the INES with the Scale', a consistent safety significance indicator, which runs from level 0, for events with no safety significance, to level 7 for a major accident with widespread health and environmental effects. Since the operation of INES was initiated in 1990, approximately 500 events have been reported and disseminated. The present paper discusses the trends observed in nuclear events, such as overall trends of the reported events and characteristics of safety significant events with level 2 or higher, based on the INES reports. (author)

  11. The analysis of a complex fire event using multispaceborne observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrei Simona

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available This study documents a complex fire event that occurred on October 2016, in Middle East belligerent area. Two fire outbreaks were detected by different spacecraft monitoring instruments on board of TERRA, CALIPSO and AURA Earth Observation missions. Link with local weather conditions was examined using ERA Interim Reanalysis and CAMS datasets. The detection of the event by multiple sensors enabled a detailed characterization of fires and the comparison with different observational data.

  12. The analysis of a complex fire event using multispaceborne observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrei, Simona; Carstea, Emil; Marmureanu, Luminita; Ene, Dragos; Binietoglou, Ioannis; Nicolae, Doina; Konsta, Dimitra; Amiridis, Vassilis; Proestakis, Emmanouil

    2018-04-01

    This study documents a complex fire event that occurred on October 2016, in Middle East belligerent area. Two fire outbreaks were detected by different spacecraft monitoring instruments on board of TERRA, CALIPSO and AURA Earth Observation missions. Link with local weather conditions was examined using ERA Interim Reanalysis and CAMS datasets. The detection of the event by multiple sensors enabled a detailed characterization of fires and the comparison with different observational data.

  13. Measurement of Underlying Event Observables with the ATLAS detector

    CERN Document Server

    Astalos, Robert; The ATLAS collaboration

    2017-01-01

    The modelling of the Underlying Event (UE) is a crucial component in the complete description of both soft and hard QCD processes at hadron colliders. The ATLAS collaboration presents new results on the number and transversemomentum sum of charged particles as a function of the leading high pT track in events taken at a center of mass energy of 13 TeV. These results are presented in regions towards, transverse, and away from the leading track and allow to test the modelling of the Underlying Event in modern MC generators. Furthermore, eventshape variables based on charged particles have been measured in Z-events at 7 TeV and have been compared with the predictions of different stateoftheart MC generators. These measurements test the Underlying Event in a complementary way.

  14. An EAS event observed in the early stage of development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barroso, S. L. C.; Beggio, P. C.; de Carvalho, A. O.; Chinellato, J. A.; Mariano, A.; de Oliveira, R.; Shibuya, E. H.; Brazil-Japan Collaboration of Chacaltaya Emulsion Chamber Experiment

    2008-01-01

    Since 1969 the experiments of Brazil-Japan Collaboration showed the occurrence of a series of events, showing a region with a high concentration of electromagnetic particles, surrounded by isolated and/or groups of showers. These events were named "halo events" or "super-families". Currently, we have more than a dozen of such events. The first of them, due to its aspect, was named "Andromeda". We present here the main characteristics of a similar halo event, named C21S087I075. It has a halo region with many high energy showers in its border. Other small energy showers spread over the central and surrounding blocks (S088, S100, S101, I074). These isolated showers, classified as of hadronic or electromagnetic origin, present a fractional energy distribution compatible with that of a Centauro candidate event (C16S087I037), reported at this symposium [S.L.C. Barroso, P.C. Beggio, J.A. Chinellato, A.O. Carvalho, A. Mariano, R. Oliveira, E.H. Shibuya, in this issue of XIV ISVHECRI]. Moreover, the lateral distribution in the halo region is similar to that observed in other 3 halo events.

  15. Structured Event-B Models and Proofs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hallerstede, Stefan

    2010-01-01

    Event-B does not provide specific support for the modelling of problems that require some structuring, such as, local variables or sequential ordering of events. All variables need to be declared globally and sequential ordering of events can only be achieved by abstract program counters. This ha...

  16. Using Dawn to Observe SEP Events Past 2 AU

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villarreal, M. N.; Russell, C. T.; Prettyman, T. H.

    2017-12-01

    The launch of the STEREO spacecraft provided much insight into the longitudinal and radial distribution of solar energetic particles (SEPs) relative to their origin site. However, almost all of the observations of SEP events have been made exclusively near 1 AU. The Dawn mission, which orbited around Vesta before arriving at Ceres, provides an opportunity to analyze these events at much further distances. Although Dawn's Gamma Ray and Neutron Detector (GRaND) is not optimized for SEP characterization, it is sensitive to protons greater than 4 MeV, making it capable of detecting a solar energetic particle event in its vicinity. Solar energetic particles in this area of the solar system are important as they are believed to cause sputtering at bodies such as Ceres and comets (Villarreal et al., 2017; Wurz et al., 2015). In this study, we use Dawn's GRaND data from 2011-2015 when Dawn was at distances between 2-3 AU. We compare the SEP events seen by Dawn with particle measurements at 1 AU using STEREO, Wind, and ACE to understand how the SEP events evolved past 1 AU.References: Villarreal, M. N., et al. (2017), The dependence of the Cerean exosphere on solar energetic particle events, Astrophys. J. Lett., 838, L8.Wurz, P. et al. (2015), Solar wind sputtering of dust on the surface of 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko, A&A, 583, A22.

  17. AGILE OBSERVATIONS OF THE GRAVITATIONAL-WAVE EVENT GW150914

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tavani, M.; Donnarumma, I.; Argan, A.; Monte, E. Del; Evangelista, Y.; Piano, G.; Munar-Adrover, P. [INAF-IAPS, via del Fosso del Cavaliere 100, I-00133 Roma (Italy); Pittori, C.; Verrecchia, F.; Lucarelli, F.; Antonelli, L. A. [ASI Science Data Center (ASDC), Via del Politecnico, I-00133 Roma (Italy); Bulgarelli, A.; Marisaldi, M.; Fioretti, V.; Zoli, A. [INAF-IASF-Bologna, Via Gobetti 101, I-40129 Bologna (Italy); Giuliani, A.; Caraveo, P. [INAF-IASF Milano, via E.Bassini 15, I-20133 Milano (Italy); Trois, A. [INAF, Osservatorio Astronomico di Cagliari, Poggio dei Pini, strada 54, I-09012 Capoterra (Italy); Barbiellini, G. [Dip. di Fisica, Universita’ di Trieste and INFN, Via Valerio 2, I-34127 Trieste (Italy); Cattaneo, P. W., E-mail: victor@roma2.infn.it.it [INFN-Pavia, Via Bassi 6, I-27100 Pavia (Italy); and others

    2016-07-01

    We report the results of an extensive search through the AGILE data for a gamma-ray counterpart to the LIGO gravitational-wave (GW) event GW150914. Currently in spinning mode, AGILE has the potential of cover 80% of the sky with its gamma-ray instrument, more than 100 times a day. It turns out that AGILE came within a minute of the event time of observing the accessible GW150914 localization region. Interestingly, the gamma-ray detector exposed ∼65% of this region during the 100 s time intervals centered at −100 and +300 s from the event time. We determine a 2 σ flux upper limit in the band 50 MeV–10 GeV, UL = 1.9 × 10{sup −8} erg cm{sup −2} s{sup −1}, obtained ∼300 s after the event. The timing of this measurement is the fastest ever obtained for GW150914, and significantly constrains the electromagnetic emission of a possible high-energy counterpart. We also carried out a search for a gamma-ray precursor and delayed emission over five timescales ranging from minutes to days: in particular, we obtained an optimal exposure during the interval −150/−30 s. In all these observations, we do not detect a significant signal associated with GW150914. We do not reveal the weak transient source reported by Fermi -GBM 0.4 s after the event time. However, even though a gamma-ray counterpart of the GW150914 event was not detected, the prospects for future AGILE observations of GW sources are decidedly promising.

  18. Constructing Dynamic Event Trees from Markov Models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paolo Bucci; Jason Kirschenbaum; Tunc Aldemir; Curtis Smith; Ted Wood

    2006-01-01

    In the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of process plants, Markov models can be used to model accurately the complex dynamic interactions between plant physical process variables (e.g., temperature, pressure, etc.) and the instrumentation and control system that monitors and manages the process. One limitation of this approach that has prevented its use in nuclear power plant PRAs is the difficulty of integrating the results of a Markov analysis into an existing PRA. In this paper, we explore a new approach to the generation of failure scenarios and their compilation into dynamic event trees from a Markov model of the system. These event trees can be integrated into an existing PRA using software tools such as SAPHIRE. To implement our approach, we first construct a discrete-time Markov chain modeling the system of interest by: (a) partitioning the process variable state space into magnitude intervals (cells), (b) using analytical equations or a system simulator to determine the transition probabilities between the cells through the cell-to-cell mapping technique, and, (c) using given failure/repair data for all the components of interest. The Markov transition matrix thus generated can be thought of as a process model describing the stochastic dynamic behavior of the finite-state system. We can therefore search the state space starting from a set of initial states to explore all possible paths to failure (scenarios) with associated probabilities. We can also construct event trees of arbitrary depth by tracing paths from a chosen initiating event and recording the following events while keeping track of the probabilities associated with each branch in the tree. As an example of our approach, we use the simple level control system often used as benchmark in the literature with one process variable (liquid level in a tank), and three control units: a drain unit and two supply units. Each unit includes a separate level sensor to observe the liquid level in the tank

  19. Dependency models and probability of joint events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oerjasaeter, O.

    1982-08-01

    Probabilistic dependencies between components/systems are discussed with reference to a broad classification of potential failure mechanisms. Further, a generalized time-dependency model, based on conditional probabilities for estimation of the probability of joint events and event sequences is described. The applicability of this model is clarified/demonstrated by various examples. It is concluded that the described model of dependency is a useful tool for solving a variety of practical problems concerning the probability of joint events and event sequences where common cause and time-dependent failure mechanisms are involved. (Auth.)

  20. Mutiple simultaneous event model for radiation carcinogenesis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baum, J.W.

    1979-01-01

    Theoretical Radiobiology and Risk Estimates includes reports on: Multiple Simultaneous Event Model for Radiation Carcinogenesis; Cancer Risk Estimates and Neutron RBE Based on Human Exposures; A Rationale for Nonlinear Dose Response Functions of Power Greater or Less Than One; and Rationale for One Double Event in Model for Radiation Carcinogenesis

  1. Infrasonic observations of large-scale HE events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whitaker, Rodney W.; Mutschlecner, J. Paul; Davidson, Masha B.; Noel, Susan D.

    1990-01-01

    The Los Alamos Infrasound Program has been operating since about mid-1982, making routine measurements of low frequency atmospheric acoustic propagation. Generally, the authors work between 0.1 Hz to 10 Hz; however, much of the work is concerned with the narrower range of 0.5 to 5.0 Hz. Two permanent stations, St. George, UT, and Los Alamos, NM, have been operational since 1983, collecting data 24 hours a day. For the purposes of this discussion, the authors concentrate on their measurements of large, high explosive (HE) events at ranges of 250 km to 5330 km. Because their equipment is well suited for mobile deployments, they can easily establish temporary observing sites for special events. The measurements are from the permanent sites, as well as from various temporary sites. A few observations that are typical of the full data set are given.

  2. Events per variable for risk differences and relative risks using pseudo-observations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Stefan Nygaard; Andersen, Per Kragh; Parner, Erik Thorlund

    2014-01-01

    A method based on pseudo-observations has been proposed for direct regression modeling of functionals of interest with right-censored data, including the survival function, the restricted mean and the cumulative incidence function in competing risks. The models, once the pseudo-observations have...... been computed, can be fitted using standard generalized estimating equation software. Regression models can however yield problematic results if the number of covariates is large in relation to the number of events observed. Guidelines of events per variable are often used in practice. These rules...

  3. Treatment cost and life expectancy of diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL): a discrete event simulation model on a UK population-based observational cohort.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Han-I; Smith, Alexandra; Aas, Eline; Roman, Eve; Crouch, Simon; Burton, Cathy; Patmore, Russell

    2017-03-01

    Diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) is the commonest non-Hodgkin lymphoma. Previous studies examining the cost of treating DLBCL have generally focused on a specific first-line therapy alone; meaning that their findings can neither be extrapolated to the general patient population nor to other points along the treatment pathway. Based on empirical data from a representative population-based patient cohort, the objective of this study was to develop a simulation model that could predict costs and life expectancy of treating DLBCL. All patients newly diagnosed with DLBCL in the UK's population-based Haematological Malignancy Research Network ( www.hmrn.org ) in 2007 were followed until 2013 (n = 271). Mapped treatment pathways, alongside cost information derived from the National Tariff 2013/14, were incorporated into a patient-level simulation model in order to reflect the heterogeneities of patient characteristics and treatment options. The NHS and social services perspective was adopted, and all outcomes were discounted at 3.5 % per annum. Overall, the expected total medical costs were £22,122 for those treated with curative intent, and £2930 for those managed palliatively. For curative chemotherapy, the predicted medical costs were £14,966, £23,449 and £7376 for first-, second- and third-line treatments, respectively. The estimated annual cost for treating DLBCL across the UK was around £88-92 million. This is the first cost modelling study using empirical data to provide 'real world' evidence throughout the DLBCL treatment pathway. Future application of the model could include evaluation of new technologies/treatments to support healthcare decision makers, especially in the era of personalised medicine.

  4. Scalable Joint Models for Reliable Uncertainty-Aware Event Prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soleimani, Hossein; Hensman, James; Saria, Suchi

    2017-08-21

    Missing data and noisy observations pose significant challenges for reliably predicting events from irregularly sampled multivariate time series (longitudinal) data. Imputation methods, which are typically used for completing the data prior to event prediction, lack a principled mechanism to account for the uncertainty due to missingness. Alternatively, state-of-the-art joint modeling techniques can be used for jointly modeling the longitudinal and event data and compute event probabilities conditioned on the longitudinal observations. These approaches, however, make strong parametric assumptions and do not easily scale to multivariate signals with many observations. Our proposed approach consists of several key innovations. First, we develop a flexible and scalable joint model based upon sparse multiple-output Gaussian processes. Unlike state-of-the-art joint models, the proposed model can explain highly challenging structure including non-Gaussian noise while scaling to large data. Second, we derive an optimal policy for predicting events using the distribution of the event occurrence estimated by the joint model. The derived policy trades-off the cost of a delayed detection versus incorrect assessments and abstains from making decisions when the estimated event probability does not satisfy the derived confidence criteria. Experiments on a large dataset show that the proposed framework significantly outperforms state-of-the-art techniques in event prediction.

  5. Sulfate Formation Enhanced by a Cocktail of High NOx, SO2, Particulate Matter, and Droplet pH during Haze-Fog Events in Megacities in China: An Observation-Based Modeling Investigation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xue, Jian; Yuan, Zibing; Griffith, Stephen M; Yu, Xin; Lau, Alexis K H; Yu, Jian Zhen

    2016-07-19

    In recent years in a few Chinese megacities, fog events lasting one to a few days have been frequently associated with high levels of aerosol loading characterized by high sulfate (as high as 30 μg m(-3)), therefore termed as haze-fog events. The concomitant pollution characteristics include high gas-phase mixing ratios of SO2 (up to 71 ppbv) and NO2 (up to 69 ppbv), high aqueous phase pH (5-6), and smaller fog droplets (as low as 2 μm), resulting from intense emissions from fossil fuel combustion and construction activities supplying abundant Ca(2+). In this work, we use an observation-based model for secondary inorganic aerosols (OBM-SIA) to simulate sulfate formation pathways under conditions of haze-fog events encountered in Chinese megacities. The OBM analysis has identified, at a typical haze-fogwater pH of 5.6, the most important pathway to be oxidation of S(IV) by dissolved NO2, followed by the heterogeneous reaction of SO2 on the aerosol surface. The aqueous phase oxidation of S(IV) by H2O2 is a very minor formation pathway as a result of the high NOx conditions suppressing H2O2 formation. The model results indicate that the unique cocktail of high fogwater pH, high concentrations of NO2, SO2, and PM, and small fog droplets are capable of greatly enhancing sulfate formation. Such haze-fog conditions could lead to rapid sulfate production at night and subsequently high PM2.5 in the morning when the fog evaporates. Sulfate formation is simulated to be highly sensitive to fogwater pH, PM, and precursor gases NO2 and SO2. Such insights on major contributing factors imply that reduction of road dust and NOx emissions could lessen PM2.5 loadings in Chinese megacities during fog events.

  6. Modeling for operational event risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sattison, M.B.

    1997-01-01

    The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission has been using risk models to evaluate the risk significance of operational events in U.S. commercial nuclear power plants for more seventeen years. During that time, the models have evolved in response to the advances in risk assessment technology and insights gained with experience. Evaluation techniques fall into two categories, initiating event assessments and condition assessments. The models used for these analyses have become uniquely specialized for just this purpose

  7. Shelter models and observations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Peña, Alfredo; Bechmann, Andreas; Conti, Davide

    This report documents part of the work performed by work package (WP) 3 of the ‘Online WAsP’ project funded by the Danish Energy Technology and Demonstration Program (EUDP). WP3 initially identified the shortcomings of the current WAsP engine for small and medium wind turbines (Peña et al., 2014b......), adapted the WAsP engine to OnlineWAsP (www.wasponline.dk), and made an effort to quantify the error and the uncertainty, first of the obstacle model in WAsP and later ofthe WAsP model chain. This report documents the work done for the obstacle model. In addition, EUDP supports the IEA task 27 on ‘small...... in the wake of a fence. The experiment is the basis of the study of the error and uncertainty of the obstacle models....

  8. Rates for parallax-shifted microlensing events from ground-based observations of the galactic bulge

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buchalter, A.; Kamionkowski, M.

    1997-01-01

    The parallax effect in ground-based microlensing (ML) observations consists of a distortion to the standard ML light curve arising from the Earth's orbital motion. This can be used to partially remove the degeneracy among the system parameters in the event timescale, t 0 . In most cases, the resolution in current ML surveys is not accurate enough to observe this effect, but parallax could conceivably be detected with frequent follow-up observations of ML events in progress, providing the photometric errors are small enough. We calculate the expected fraction of ML events where the shape distortions will be observable by such follow-up observations, adopting Galactic models for the lens and source distributions that are consistent with observed microlensing timescale distributions. We study the dependence of the rates for parallax-shifted events on the frequency of follow-up observations and on the precision of the photometry. For example, we find that for hourly observations with typical photometric errors of 0.01 mag, 6% of events where the lens is in the bulge, and 31% of events where the lens is in the disk (or ∼10% of events overall), will give rise to a measurable parallax shift at the 95% confidence level. These fractions may be increased by improved photometric accuracy and increased sampling frequency. While long-duration events are favored, the surveys would be effective in picking out such distortions in events with timescales as low as t 0 ∼20 days. We study the dependence of these fractions on the assumed disk mass function and find that a higher parallax incidence is favored by mass functions with higher mean masses. Parallax measurements yield the reduced transverse speed, v, which gives both the relative transverse speed and lens mass as a function of distance. We give examples of the accuracies with which v may be measured in typical parallax events. (Abstract Truncated)

  9. A Unified Model for Tidal Disruption Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dai, Lixin; McKinney, Jonathan C.; Roth, Nathaniel; Ramirez-Ruiz, Enrico; Miller, M. Coleman

    2018-06-01

    In the past few years wide-field optical and UV transient surveys and X-ray telescopes have allowed us to identify a few dozen candidate tidal disruption events (TDEs). While in theory the physical processes in TDEs are ubiquitous, a few distinct classes of TDEs have been observed. Some TDEs radiate mainly in NUV/optical, while others produce prominent X-rays. Moreover, relativistic jets have been observed in only a handful of TDEs. This diversity might be related to the details of the super-Eddington accretion and emission physics relevant to TDE disks. In this Letter, we utilize novel three-dimensional general relativistic radiation magnetohydrodynamics simulations to study the super-Eddington compact disk phase expected in TDEs. Consistent with previous studies, geometrically thick disks, wide-angle optically thick fast outflows, and relativistic jets are produced. The outflow density and velocity depend sensitively on the inclination angle, and hence so does the reprocessing of emission produced from the inner disk. We then use Monte Carlo radiative transfer to calculate the reprocessed spectra and find that that the observed ratio of optical to X-ray fluxes increases with increasing inclination angle. This naturally leads to a unified model for different classes of TDEs in which the spectral properties of the TDE depend mainly on the viewing angle of the observer with respect to the orientation of the disk.

  10. Modeled seasonality of glacial abrupt climate events

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Flueckiger, J.; Knutti, R.; White, J.W.C.; Renssen, H.

    2008-01-01

    Greenland ice cores, as well as many other paleo-archives from the northern hemisphere, recorded a series of 25 warm interstadial events, the so-called Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) events, during the last glacial period. We use the three-dimensional coupled global ocean-atmosphere-sea ice model

  11. Hierarchical Context Modeling for Video Event Recognition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xiaoyang; Ji, Qiang

    2016-10-11

    Current video event recognition research remains largely target-centered. For real-world surveillance videos, targetcentered event recognition faces great challenges due to large intra-class target variation, limited image resolution, and poor detection and tracking results. To mitigate these challenges, we introduced a context-augmented video event recognition approach. Specifically, we explicitly capture different types of contexts from three levels including image level, semantic level, and prior level. At the image level, we introduce two types of contextual features including the appearance context features and interaction context features to capture the appearance of context objects and their interactions with the target objects. At the semantic level, we propose a deep model based on deep Boltzmann machine to learn event object representations and their interactions. At the prior level, we utilize two types of prior-level contexts including scene priming and dynamic cueing. Finally, we introduce a hierarchical context model that systematically integrates the contextual information at different levels. Through the hierarchical context model, contexts at different levels jointly contribute to the event recognition. We evaluate the hierarchical context model for event recognition on benchmark surveillance video datasets. Results show that incorporating contexts in each level can improve event recognition performance, and jointly integrating three levels of contexts through our hierarchical model achieves the best performance.

  12. Event Modeling in UML. Unified Modeling Language and Unified Process

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bækgaard, Lars

    2002-01-01

    We show how events can be modeled in terms of UML. We view events as change agents that have consequences and as information objects that represent information. We show how to create object-oriented structures that represent events in terms of attributes, associations, operations, state charts......, and messages. We outline a run-time environment for the processing of events with multiple participants....

  13. Fast radio burst event rate counts - I. Interpreting the observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macquart, J.-P.; Ekers, R. D.

    2018-02-01

    The fluence distribution of the fast radio burst (FRB) population (the `source count' distribution, N (>F) ∝Fα), is a crucial diagnostic of its distance distribution, and hence the progenitor evolutionary history. We critically reanalyse current estimates of the FRB source count distribution. We demonstrate that the Lorimer burst (FRB 010724) is subject to discovery bias, and should be excluded from all statistical studies of the population. We re-examine the evidence for flat, α > -1, source count estimates based on the ratio of single-beam to multiple-beam detections with the Parkes multibeam receiver, and show that current data imply only a very weak constraint of α ≲ -1.3. A maximum-likelihood analysis applied to the portion of the Parkes FRB population detected above the observational completeness fluence of 2 Jy ms yields α = -2.6_{-1.3}^{+0.7 }. Uncertainties in the location of each FRB within the Parkes beam render estimates of the Parkes event rate uncertain in both normalizing survey area and the estimated post-beam-corrected completeness fluence; this uncertainty needs to be accounted for when comparing the event rate against event rates measured at other telescopes.

  14. Probabilistic Models for Solar Particle Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adams, James H., Jr.; Dietrich, W. F.; Xapsos, M. A.; Welton, A. M.

    2009-01-01

    Probabilistic Models of Solar Particle Events (SPEs) are used in space mission design studies to provide a description of the worst-case radiation environment that the mission must be designed to tolerate.The models determine the worst-case environment using a description of the mission and a user-specified confidence level that the provided environment will not be exceeded. This poster will focus on completing the existing suite of models by developing models for peak flux and event-integrated fluence elemental spectra for the Z>2 elements. It will also discuss methods to take into account uncertainties in the data base and the uncertainties resulting from the limited number of solar particle events in the database. These new probabilistic models are based on an extensive survey of SPE measurements of peak and event-integrated elemental differential energy spectra. Attempts are made to fit the measured spectra with eight different published models. The model giving the best fit to each spectrum is chosen and used to represent that spectrum for any energy in the energy range covered by the measurements. The set of all such spectral representations for each element is then used to determine the worst case spectrum as a function of confidence level. The spectral representation that best fits these worst case spectra is found and its dependence on confidence level is parameterized. This procedure creates probabilistic models for the peak and event-integrated spectra.

  15. W-band spaceborne radar observations of atmospheric river events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matrosov, S. Y.

    2010-12-01

    While the main objective of the world first W-band radar aboard the CloudSat satellite is to provide vertically resolved information on clouds, it proved to be a valuable tool for observing precipitation. The CloudSat radar is generally able to resolve precipitating cloud systems in their vertical entirety. Although measurements from the liquid hydrometer layer containing rainfall are strongly attenuated, special retrieval approaches can be used to estimate rainfall parameters. These approaches are based on vertical gradients of observed radar reflectivity factor rather than on absolute estimates of reflectivity. Concurrent independent estimations of ice cloud parameters in the same vertical column allow characterization of precipitating systems and provide information on coupling between clouds and rainfall they produce. The potential of CloudSat for observations atmospheric river events affecting the West Coast of North America is evaluated. It is shown that spaceborne radar measurements can provide high resolution information on the height of the freezing level thus separating areas of rainfall and snowfall. CloudSat precipitation rate estimates complement information from the surface-based radars. Observations of atmospheric rivers at different locations above the ocean and during landfall help to understand evolutions of atmospheric rivers and their structures.

  16. Isotropic events observed with a borehole array in the Chelungpu fault zone, Taiwan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Kuo-Fong; Lin, Yen-Yu; Lee, Shiann-Jong; Mori, Jim; Brodsky, Emily E

    2012-07-27

    Shear failure is the dominant mode of earthquake-causing rock failure along faults. High fluid pressure can also potentially induce rock failure by opening cavities and cracks, but an active example of this process has not been directly observed in a fault zone. Using borehole array data collected along the low-stress Chelungpu fault zone, Taiwan, we observed several small seismic events (I-type events) in a fluid-rich permeable zone directly below the impermeable slip zone of the 1999 moment magnitude 7.6 Chi-Chi earthquake. Modeling of the events suggests an isotropic, nonshear source mechanism likely associated with natural hydraulic fractures. These seismic events may be associated with the formation of veins and other fluid features often observed in rocks surrounding fault zones and may be similar to artificially induced hydraulic fracturing.

  17. Analysis hierarchical model for discrete event systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ciortea, E. M.

    2015-11-01

    The This paper presents the hierarchical model based on discrete event network for robotic systems. Based on the hierarchical approach, Petri network is analysed as a network of the highest conceptual level and the lowest level of local control. For modelling and control of complex robotic systems using extended Petri nets. Such a system is structured, controlled and analysed in this paper by using Visual Object Net ++ package that is relatively simple and easy to use, and the results are shown as representations easy to interpret. The hierarchical structure of the robotic system is implemented on computers analysed using specialized programs. Implementation of hierarchical model discrete event systems, as a real-time operating system on a computer network connected via a serial bus is possible, where each computer is dedicated to local and Petri model of a subsystem global robotic system. Since Petri models are simplified to apply general computers, analysis, modelling, complex manufacturing systems control can be achieved using Petri nets. Discrete event systems is a pragmatic tool for modelling industrial systems. For system modelling using Petri nets because we have our system where discrete event. To highlight the auxiliary time Petri model using transport stream divided into hierarchical levels and sections are analysed successively. Proposed robotic system simulation using timed Petri, offers the opportunity to view the robotic time. Application of goods or robotic and transmission times obtained by measuring spot is obtained graphics showing the average time for transport activity, using the parameters sets of finished products. individually.

  18. An event-based model for contracts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tiziana Cimoli

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available We introduce a basic model for contracts. Our model extends event structures with a new relation, which faithfully captures the circular dependencies among contract clauses. We establish whether an agreement exists which respects all the contracts at hand (i.e. all the dependencies can be resolved, and we detect the obligations of each participant. The main technical contribution is a correspondence between our model and a fragment of the contract logic PCL. More precisely, we show that the reachable events are exactly those which correspond to provable atoms in the logic. Despite of this strong correspondence, our model improves previous work on PCL by exhibiting a finer-grained notion of culpability, which takes into account the legitimate orderings of events.

  19. Fermi Observations of the LIGO Event GW170104

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Goldstein, A.; Cleveland, W. H.; Connaughton, V. [Science and Technology Institute, Universities Space Research Association, Huntsville, AL 35805 (United States); Veres, P.; Briggs, M. S.; Hamburg, R.; Jenke, P. A.; Bhat, N. [Center for Space Plasma and Aeronomic Research, University of Alabama in Huntsville, 320 Sparkman Drive, Huntsville, AL 35899 (United States); Burns, E.; Canton, T. Dal [NASA Postdoctoral Program Fellow, Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD 20771 (United States); Blackburn, L. [Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, 60 Garden Street, Cambridge, MA 02138 (United States); Christensen, N. [Physics and Astronomy, Carleton College, MN, 55057 (United States); Hui, C. M.; Kocevski, D.; Wilson-Hodge, C. A. [Astrophysics Office, ST12, NASA/Marshall Space Flight Center, Huntsville, AL 35812 (United States); Preece, R. D. [Department of Space Science, University of Alabama in Huntsville, 320 Sparkman Drive, Huntsville, AL 35899 (United States); Siellez, K. [Center for Relativistic Astrophysics and School of Physics, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA 30332 (United States); Veitch, J. [University of Birmingham, Birmingham B15 2TT (United Kingdom); Bissaldi, E. [Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare, Sezione di Bari, I-70126 Bari (Italy); Gibby, M. H., E-mail: kocevski@slac.stanford.edu, E-mail: melissa.pesce.rollins@pi.infn.it, E-mail: nicola.omodei@stanford.edu, E-mail: giacomov@slac.stanford.edu [Jacobs Technology, Inc., Huntsville, AL (United States); Collaboration: (Fermi-LAT Collaboration); and others

    2017-09-01

    We present the Fermi Gamma-ray Burst Monitor (GBM) and Large Area Telescope (LAT) observations of the LIGO binary black hole merger (BBH) event GW170104. No candidate electromagnetic counterpart was detected by either GBM or LAT. A detailed analysis of the GBM and LAT data over timescales from seconds to days covering the Laser Interferometer Gravitational-wave Observatory (LIGO) localization region is presented. The resulting flux upper bound from the GBM is (5.2–9.4) × 10{sup −7} erg cm{sup −2} s{sup −1} in the 10–1000 keV range and from the LAT is (0.2–90) × 10{sup −9} erg cm{sup −2} s{sup −1} in the 0.1–1 GeV range. We also describe the improvements to our automated pipelines and analysis techniques for searching for and characterizing the potential electromagnetic counterparts for future gravitational-wave events from Advanced LIGO/Virgo.

  20. ISEE/IMP Observations of simultaneous upstream ion events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mitchel, D.G.; Roelof, E.C.; Sanderson, T.R.; Reinhard, R.; Wenzel, K.

    1983-01-01

    Propagation of upstream energetic (50--200 keV) ions is analyzed in sixteen events observed simulataneously by solid state detectors on ISEE 3 at approx.200 R/sub E/ and on IMP 8 at approx.35 R/sub E/ from the earth. Conclusions are based on comparisons of the pitch angle distributions observed at the two spacecraft and transformed into the solar wind frame. They are beamlike at ISEE 3 and are confined to the outward hemisphere. When IMP 8 is furtherest from the bow shock, they are also usually beamlike, or hemispheric. However, when IMP 8 is closer to the bow shock, pancakelike distributions are observed. This systematic variation in the IMP 8 pitch angle distributions delimits a scattering region l< or approx. =14 R/sub E/ upstream of the earth's bow shock (l measured along the interplanetary magnetic field) that dominates ion propagation, influences the global distribution of fluxes in the foreshock, and may play a role in acceleration of the ions. When IMP 8 is beyond lapprox.15 R/sub E/, the propagation appears to be essentially scatter-free between IMP 8 and ISEE 3; this is deduced from the absence of earthward fluxes at IMP 8 as well as the tendency for the spin-averaged fluxes to be comparable at the two spacecraft

  1. Computer modeling of the Cabriolet Event

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kamegai, M.

    1979-01-01

    Computer modeling techniques are described for calculating the results of underground nuclear explosions at depths shallow enough to produce cratering. The techniques are applied to the Cabriolet Event, a well-documented nuclear excavation experiment, and the calculations give good agreement with the experimental results. It is concluded that, given data obtainable by outside observers, these modeling techniques are capable of verifying the yield and depth of underground nuclear cratering explosions, and that they could thus be useful in monitoring another country's compliance with treaty agreements on nuclear testing limitations. Several important facts emerge from the study: (1) seismic energy is produced by only a fraction of the nuclear yield, a fraction depending strongly on the depth of shot and the mechanical properties of the surrounding rock; (2) temperature of the vented gas can be predicted accurately only if good equations of state are available for the rock in the detonation zone; and (3) temperature of the vented gas is strongly dependent on the cooling effect, before venting, of mixing with melted rock in the expanding cavity and, to a lesser extent, on the cooling effect of water in the rock

  2. Modeling and simulation of discrete event systems

    CERN Document Server

    Choi, Byoung Kyu

    2013-01-01

    Computer modeling and simulation (M&S) allows engineers to study and analyze complex systems. Discrete-event system (DES)-M&S is used in modern management, industrial engineering, computer science, and the military. As computer speeds and memory capacity increase, so DES-M&S tools become more powerful and more widely used in solving real-life problems. Based on over 20 years of evolution within a classroom environment, as well as on decades-long experience in developing simulation-based solutions for high-tech industries, Modeling and Simulation of Discrete-Event Systems is the only book on

  3. Observation models in radiocarbon calibration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, M.D.; Nicholls, G.K.

    2001-01-01

    The observation model underlying any calibration process dictates the precise mathematical details of the calibration calculations. Accordingly it is important that an appropriate observation model is used. Here this is illustrated with reference to the use of reservoir offsets where the standard calibration approach is based on a different model to that which the practitioners clearly believe is being applied. This sort of error can give rise to significantly erroneous calibration results. (author). 12 refs., 1 fig

  4. Human event observations in the individual plant examinations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Forester, J. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    1995-04-01

    A major objective of the Individual Plant Examination Insights Program is to identify the important determinants of core damage frequency for the different reactor and containment types and plant designs as indicated in the IPEs. The human reliability analysis is a critical component of the probabilistic risk assessments which were done for the IPEs. The determination and selection of human actions for incorporation into the event and fault tree models and the quantification of their failure probabilities can have an important impact on the resulting estimates of CDF and risk. Two important goals of the NRCs IPE Insights Program are (1) to determine the extent to which human actions and their corresponding failure probabilities influenced the results of the IPEs and (2) to identify which factors played significant roles in determining the differences and similarities in the results of the HRA analyses across the different plants. To obtain the relevant information, the NRC`s IPE database, which contains information on plant design, CDF, and containment performance obtained from the IPEs, was used in conjunction with a systematic examination of the HRA analyses and results from the IPEs. Regarding the extent to which the results of the HRA analyses were significant contributors to the plants` CDFs, examinations of several different measures indicated that while individual human actions could have important influences on CDF for particular initiators, the HRA results did not appear to be the most significant driver of plant risk. Another finding was that while there were relatively wide variations in the calculated human error probabilities for similar events across plants, there was no evidence for any systematic variation as a function of the HRA methods used in the analyses. Much of the variability in HEP values can be explained by differences in plant characteristics and sequence-specific factors. Details of these results and other findings are discussed.

  5. Human event observations in the individual plant examinations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Forester, J.

    1995-01-01

    A major objective of the Individual Plant Examination Insights Program is to identify the important determinants of core damage frequency for the different reactor and containment types and plant designs as indicated in the IPEs. The human reliability analysis is a critical component of the probabilistic risk assessments which were done for the IPEs. The determination and selection of human actions for incorporation into the event and fault tree models and the quantification of their failure probabilities can have an important impact on the resulting estimates of CDF and risk. Two important goals of the NRCs IPE Insights Program are (1) to determine the extent to which human actions and their corresponding failure probabilities influenced the results of the IPEs and (2) to identify which factors played significant roles in determining the differences and similarities in the results of the HRA analyses across the different plants. To obtain the relevant information, the NRC's IPE database, which contains information on plant design, CDF, and containment performance obtained from the IPEs, was used in conjunction with a systematic examination of the HRA analyses and results from the IPEs. Regarding the extent to which the results of the HRA analyses were significant contributors to the plants' CDFs, examinations of several different measures indicated that while individual human actions could have important influences on CDF for particular initiators, the HRA results did not appear to be the most significant driver of plant risk. Another finding was that while there were relatively wide variations in the calculated human error probabilities for similar events across plants, there was no evidence for any systematic variation as a function of the HRA methods used in the analyses. Much of the variability in HEP values can be explained by differences in plant characteristics and sequence-specific factors. Details of these results and other findings are discussed

  6. Human event observations in the individual plant examinations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Forester, J.

    1995-01-01

    A major objective of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's (NRC) Individual Plant Examination (IPE) Insights Program is to identify the important determinants of core damage frequency (CDF) for the different reactor and containment types and plant designs as indicated in the IPEs. The human reliability analysis (HRA) is a critical component of the probabilistic risk assessments (PRAS) which were done for the IPES. The determination and selection of human actions for incorporation into the event and fault tree models and the quantification of their failure probabilities can have an important impact on the resulting estimates of CDF and risk. Therefore, two important goals of the NRCs IPE Insights Program are (1) to determine the extent to which human actions and their corresponding failure probabilities influenced the results of the IPEs and (2) to identify which factors played significant roles in determining the differences and similarities in the results of the HRA analyses across the different plants. To obtain the relevant information, the NRC's IPE database, which contains information on plant design, CDF, and containment performance obtained from the IPES, was used in conjunction with a systematic examination of the HRA analyses and results from the IPES. Regarding the extent to which the results of the HRA analyses were significant contributors to the plants' CDFs, examinations of several different measures indicated that while individual human actions could have important influences on CDF for particular initiators, the HRA results did not appear to be the most significant driver of plant risk (CDF). Another finding was that while there were relatively wide variations in the calculated human error probabilities (HEPs) for similar events across plants, there was no evidence for any systematic variation as a function of the HRA methods used in the analyses

  7. Transition-zone observations of rapid flare events as observed by OSO-8

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lites, B. W.

    1981-01-01

    The rapid dissipation of flare energy has been observed in the transition-zone line of C IV at 1548.2 A using the University of Colorado spectrometer aboard OSO-8. Impulsive brightenings have been resolved with characteristic rise times as low as 3.5s. One event is analyzed in detail, and it is inferred that the electron density is greater than 2 x 10 to the 11th/cu cm at a temperature of 60,000 K, and that the flare energy is deposited at a rate of 2 ergs/cu cm per sec or greater. The temporal behavior of the intensity at the center of the C IV line is consistent with a nonequilibrium ionization of C III through C V. If this event is a result of the multiple tearing mode instability as the primary energy release mechanism, then the observations indicate a preflare magnetic field of about 175 G.

  8. Failure diagnosis using discrete event models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sampath, M.; Sengupta, R.; Lafortune, S.; Teneketzis, D.; Sinnamohideen, K.

    1994-01-01

    We propose a Discrete Event Systems (DES) approach to the failure diagnosis problem. We present a methodology for modeling physical systems in a DES framework. We discuss the notion of diagnosability and present the construction procedure of the diagnoser. Finally, we illustrate our approach using a Heating, Ventilation and Air Conditioning (HVAC) system

  9. Computational challenges in modeling gene regulatory events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pataskar, Abhijeet; Tiwari, Vijay K

    2016-10-19

    Cellular transcriptional programs driven by genetic and epigenetic mechanisms could be better understood by integrating "omics" data and subsequently modeling the gene-regulatory events. Toward this end, computational biology should keep pace with evolving experimental procedures and data availability. This article gives an exemplified account of the current computational challenges in molecular biology.

  10. Modeled seasonality of glacial abrupt climate events

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Flueckiger, Jacqueline [Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States); Environmental Physics, Institute of Biogeochemistry and Pollutant Dynamics, ETH Zuerich, Zurich (Switzerland); Knutti, Reto [Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zuerich, Zurich (Switzerland); White, James W.C. [Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States); Renssen, Hans [Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Faculty of Earth and Life Sciences, Amsterdam (Netherlands)

    2008-11-15

    Greenland ice cores, as well as many other paleo-archives from the northern hemisphere, recorded a series of 25 warm interstadial events, the so-called Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) events, during the last glacial period. We use the three-dimensional coupled global ocean-atmosphere-sea ice model ECBILT-CLIO and force it with freshwater input into the North Atlantic to simulate abrupt glacial climate events, which we use as analogues for D-O events. We focus our analysis on the Northern Hemisphere. The simulated events show large differences in the regional and seasonal distribution of the temperature and precipitation changes. While the temperature changes in high northern latitudes and in the North Atlantic region are dominated by winter changes, the largest temperature increases in most other land regions are seen in spring. Smallest changes over land are found during the summer months. Our model simulations also demonstrate that the temperature and precipitation change patterns for different intensifications of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation are not linear. The extent of the transitions varies, and local non-linearities influence the amplitude of the annual mean response as well as the response in different seasons. Implications for the interpretation of paleo-records are discussed. (orig.)

  11. Human event observations in the individual plant examinations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lois, E.; Forester, J.

    1994-01-01

    A main objective of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's (NRC) Individual Plant Examination (IPE) Insights Program is to document significant safety insights relative to core damage frequency (CDF) for the different reactor and containment types and plant designs as indicated in the IPEs. The Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) is a critical component of the Probabilistic Risk Assessments (PRAs) which were done for the IPEs. The determination and selection of human actions for incorporation into the event and fault tree models and the quantification of their failure probabilities can have an important impact on the resulting estimates of CDF and risk. Therefore, two important goals of the NRCs IPE Insights Program are (1) to determine the extent to which human actions and their corresponding failure probabilities influenced the results of the IPEs and (2) to identify which factors played significant roles in determining the differences and similarities in the results of the HRA analyses across the different plants. To obtain the relevant information, the NRCs IPE database, which contains information on plant design, CDF, and containment performance obtained from the IPEs, was used in conjunction with a systematic examination of the HRA results from the IPEs

  12. Observable cosmology and cosmological models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kardashev, N.S.; Lukash, V.N.; Novikov, I.D.

    1987-01-01

    Modern state of observation cosmology is briefly discussed. Among other things, a problem, related to Hibble constant and slowdown constant determining is considered. Within ''pancake'' theory hot (neutrino) cosmological model explains well the large-scale structure of the Universe, but does not explain the galaxy formation. A cold cosmological model explains well light object formation, but contradicts data on large-scale structure

  13. Dust storm events over Delhi: verification of dust AOD forecasts with satellite and surface observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Aditi; Iyengar, Gopal R.; George, John P.

    2016-05-01

    Thar desert located in northwest part of India is considered as one of the major dust source. Dust storms originate in Thar desert during pre-monsoon season, affects large part of Indo-Gangetic plains. High dust loading causes the deterioration of the ambient air quality and degradation in visibility. Present study focuses on the identification of dust events and verification of the forecast of dust events over Delhi and western part of IG Plains, during the pre-monsoon season of 2015. Three dust events have been identified over Delhi during the study period. For all the selected days, Terra-MODIS AOD at 550 nm are found close to 1.0, while AURA-OMI AI shows high values. Dust AOD forecasts from NCMRWF Unified Model (NCUM) for the three selected dust events are verified against satellite (MODIS) and ground based observations (AERONET). Comparison of observed AODs at 550 nm from MODIS with NCUM predicted AODs reveals that NCUM is able to predict the spatial and temporal distribution of dust AOD, in these cases. Good correlation (~0.67) is obtained between the NCUM predicted dust AODs and location specific observations available from AERONET. Model under-predicted the AODs as compared to the AERONET observations. This may be mainly because the model account for only dust and no anthropogenic activities are considered. The results of the present study emphasize the requirement of more realistic representation of local dust emission in the model both of natural and anthropogenic origin, to improve the forecast of dust from NCUM during the dust events.

  14. Observations involving broadband impedance modelling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Berg, J S [Stanford Linear Accelerator Center, Menlo Park, CA (United States)

    1996-08-01

    Results for single- and multi-bunch instabilities can be significantly affected by the precise model that is used for the broadband impedance. This paper discusses three aspects of broadband impedance modelling. The first is an observation of the effect that a seemingly minor change in an impedance model has on the single-bunch mode coupling threshold. The second is a successful attempt to construct a model for the high-frequency tails of an r.f. cavity. The last is a discussion of requirements for the mathematical form of an impedance which follow from the general properties of impedances. (author)

  15. Observations involving broadband impedance modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berg, J.S.

    1995-08-01

    Results for single- and multi-bunch instabilities can be significantly affected by the precise model that is used for the broadband impendance. This paper discusses three aspects of broadband impendance modeling. The first is an observation of the effect that a seemingly minor change in an impedance model has on the single-bunch mode coupling threshold. The second is a successful attempt to construct a model for the high-frequency tails of an r.f cavity. The last is a discussion of requirements for the mathematical form of an impendance which follow from the general properties of impendances

  16. Consequences of models for monojet events from Z boson decay

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baer, H.; Komamiya, S.; Hagiwara, K.

    1985-02-01

    Three models for monojet events with large missing transverse momentum observed at the CERN panti p collider are studied: i) Z decay into a neutral lepton pair where one of the pair decays within the detecter while the other escapes, ii) Z decay into two distinct neutral scalars where the lighter one is long lived, and iii) Z decay into two distinct higgsinos where the lighter one is long lived. The first model necessarily gives observable decay in flight signals. Consequences of the latter two models are investigated in both panti p collisions at CERN and e + e - annihilation at PETRA/PEP energies. (orig.)

  17. Experimental observation of 3-D, impulsive reconnection events in a laboratory plasma

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dorfman, S.; Ji, H.; Yamada, M.; Yoo, J.; Lawrence, E.; Myers, C.; Tharp, T. D. [Center for Magnetic Self-Organization, Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory, Princeton, New Jersey 08543 (United States)

    2014-01-15

    Fast, impulsive reconnection is commonly observed in laboratory, space, and astrophysical plasmas. In this work, impulsive, local, 3-D reconnection is identified for the first time in a laboratory current sheet. The two-fluid, impulsive reconnection events observed on the Magnetic Reconnection Experiment (MRX) [Yamada et al., Phys Plasmas 4, 1936 (1997)] cannot be explained by 2-D models and are therefore fundamentally three-dimensional. Several signatures of flux ropes are identified with these events; 3-D high current density regions with O-point structure form during a slow buildup period that precedes a fast disruption of the reconnecting current layer. The observed drop in the reconnection current and spike in the reconnection rate during the disruption are due to ejection of these flux ropes from the layer. Underscoring the 3-D nature of the events, strong out-of-plane gradients in both the density and reconnecting magnetic field are found to play a key role in this process. Electromagnetic fluctuations in the lower hybrid frequency range are observed to peak at the disruption time; however, they are not the key physics responsible for the impulsive phenomena observed. Important features of the disruption dynamics cannot be explained by an anomalous resistivity model. An important discrepancy in the layer width and force balance between the collisionless regime of MRX and kinetic simulations is also revisited. The wider layers observed in MRX may be due to the formation of flux ropes with a wide range of sizes; consistent with this hypothesis, flux rope signatures are observed down to the smallest scales resolved by the diagnostics. Finally, a 3-D two-fluid model is proposed to explain how the observed out-of-plane variation may lead to a localized region of enhanced reconnection that spreads in the direction of the out-of-plane electron flow, ejecting flux ropes from the layer in a 3-D manner.

  18. Observational modeling of topological spaces

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Molaei, M.R.

    2009-01-01

    In this paper a model for a multi-dimensional observer by using of the fuzzy theory is presented. Relative form of Tychonoff theorem is proved. The notion of topological entropy is extended. The persistence of relative topological entropy under relative conjugate relation is proved.

  19. Assessment of Observational Uncertainty in Extreme Precipitation Events over the Continental United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slinskey, E. A.; Loikith, P. C.; Waliser, D. E.; Goodman, A.

    2017-12-01

    Extreme precipitation events are associated with numerous societal and environmental impacts. Furthermore, anthropogenic climate change is projected to alter precipitation intensity across portions of the Continental United States (CONUS). Therefore, a spatial understanding and intuitive means of monitoring extreme precipitation over time is critical. Towards this end, we apply an event-based indicator, developed as a part of NASA's support of the ongoing efforts of the US National Climate Assessment, which assigns categories to extreme precipitation events based on 3-day storm totals as a basis for dataset intercomparison. To assess observational uncertainty across a wide range of historical precipitation measurement approaches, we intercompare in situ station data from the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN), satellite-derived precipitation data from NASA's Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), gridded in situ station data from the Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM), global reanalysis from NASA's Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis version 2 (MERRA 2), and regional reanalysis with gauge data assimilation from NCEP's North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR). Results suggest considerable variability across the five-dataset suite in the frequency, spatial extent, and magnitude of extreme precipitation events. Consistent with expectations, higher resolution datasets were found to resemble station data best and capture a greater frequency of high-end extreme events relative to lower spatial resolution datasets. The degree of dataset agreement varies regionally, however all datasets successfully capture the seasonal cycle of precipitation extremes across the CONUS. These intercomparison results provide additional insight about observational uncertainty and the ability of a range of precipitation measurement and analysis products to capture extreme precipitation event climatology. While the event category threshold is fixed

  20. A Macro-Observation Scheme for Abnormal Event Detection in Daily-Life Video Sequences

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chiu Wei-Yao

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract We propose a macro-observation scheme for abnormal event detection in daily life. The proposed macro-observation representation records the time-space energy of motions of all moving objects in a scene without segmenting individual object parts. The energy history of each pixel in the scene is instantly updated with exponential weights without explicitly specifying the duration of each activity. Since possible activities in daily life are numerous and distinct from each other and not all abnormal events can be foreseen, images from a video sequence that spans sufficient repetition of normal day-to-day activities are first randomly sampled. A constrained clustering model is proposed to partition the sampled images into groups. The new observed event that has distinct distance from any of the cluster centroids is then classified as an anomaly. The proposed method has been evaluated in daily work of a laboratory and BEHAVE benchmark dataset. The experimental results reveal that it can well detect abnormal events such as burglary and fighting as long as they last for a sufficient duration of time. The proposed method can be used as a support system for the scene that requires full time monitoring personnel.

  1. An observation on a cosmic-ray induced event

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sawayanagi, K.

    1990-01-01

    The authors observed a big A-jet family in the chamber No. 21. In this paper summary of the family is given though some of the results are preliminary. Emulsion chamber technique has been giving a way of observing ultrahigh energy atmospheric interactions made by cosmic-ray radiations with fine spacial resolution and good stability for a long duration of exposure. The two-story structure of emulsion chamber adopted by Brasil-Japan Collaboration on Emulsion Chamber Experiments at Mt. Chacaltaya makes it possible to observe local interactions within the chamber in addition to atmospheric interactions at the same time. For this purpose an inner target layer of plastic/petroleum pitch is located between the upper and the lower parts of the chamber. The observation of these local interactions, called C-jets, is used to make auto-calibration of energies of observed cascade showers

  2. Magnetosphere energetics during substorm events IMP 8 and Geotail observations

    CERN Document Server

    Belehaki, A

    2001-01-01

    Magnetospheric energetics during substorm events is studied in this paper. Three events were selected, a weak substorm, a large isolated one and finally a prolonged period of substorm activity with multiple intensifications. It is assumed that the energy, that entered the magnetosphere due to electromagnetic coupling with the solar wind, is described by the epsilon parameter, proposed by Perreault and Akasofu (1978). High resolution, magnetic field and plasma data from the MGF and LEP experiments on board Geotail were analyzed to determine the timing of plasmoid release, its dimensions, its convection velocity and finally the energy carried by each plasmoid. Plasmoids were defined as structures with rotating magnetic fields and enhanced total pressure. Tailward plasmoid bulk speed in the distant tail varied from 350 to 750 km/s. Their dimensions in the X/sub GSM/ direction was found to be from 4.5 to 28 R/sub E/, and their duration did not exceed 5 min. The average energy carried by each plasmoid in the dista...

  3. Simulating flaring events in complex active regions driven by observed magnetograms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dimitropoulou, M.; Isliker, H.; Vlahos, L.; Georgoulis, M. K.

    2011-05-01

    Context. We interpret solar flares as events originating in active regions that have reached the self organized critical state, by using a refined cellular automaton model with initial conditions derived from observations. Aims: We investigate whether the system, with its imposed physical elements, reaches a self organized critical state and whether well-known statistical properties of flares, such as scaling laws observed in the distribution functions of characteristic parameters, are reproduced after this state has been reached. Methods: To investigate whether the distribution functions of total energy, peak energy and event duration follow the expected scaling laws, we first applied a nonlinear force-free extrapolation that reconstructs the three-dimensional magnetic fields from two-dimensional vector magnetograms. We then locate magnetic discontinuities exceeding a threshold in the Laplacian of the magnetic field. These discontinuities are relaxed in local diffusion events, implemented in the form of cellular automaton evolution rules. Subsequent loading and relaxation steps lead the system to self organized criticality, after which the statistical properties of the simulated events are examined. Physical requirements, such as the divergence-free condition for the magnetic field vector, are approximately imposed on all elements of the model. Results: Our results show that self organized criticality is indeed reached when applying specific loading and relaxation rules. Power-law indices obtained from the distribution functions of the modeled flaring events are in good agreement with observations. Single power laws (peak and total flare energy) are obtained, as are power laws with exponential cutoff and double power laws (flare duration). The results are also compared with observational X-ray data from the GOES satellite for our active-region sample. Conclusions: We conclude that well-known statistical properties of flares are reproduced after the system has

  4. Mutual event observations of solar system objects by SRC on Mars Express. Analysis and release of observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ziese, R.; Willner, K.

    2018-06-01

    Context. Both Martian moons, Phobos and Deimos, have been observed during several imaging campaigns by the Super Resolution Channel (SRC) on the Mars Express probe. Several tens of images are obtained during mutual event observations - when the Martian moons are both observed or together with another solar system body. These observations provide new opportunities to determine the bodies' positions in their orbits. Aims: A method was sought to automate the observation of the positions of the imaged bodies. Within one image sequence a similarly accurate localization of the objects in all images should be possible. Methods: Shape models of Phobos and Deimos are applied to simulate the appearance of the bodies in the images. Matching the illuminated simulation against the observation provides a reliable determination of the bodies' location within the image. To enhance the matching confidence several corrections need to be applied to the simulation to closely reconstruct the observation. Results: A list of 884 relative positions between the different objects is provided through the Centre de Données astronomiques de Strasbourg (CDS). Tables A.1-A.4 are only available at the CDS via anonymous ftp to http://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr (http://130.79.128.5) or via http://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr/viz-bin/qcat?J/A+A/614/A15

  5. Trampoline Effect: Observations and Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guyer, R.; Larmat, C. S.; Ulrich, T. J.

    2009-12-01

    The Iwate-Miyagi earthquake at site IWTH25 (14 June 2008) had large, asymmetric at surface vertical accelerations prompting the sobriquet trampoline effect (Aoi et. al. 2008). In addition the surface acceleration record showed long-short waiting time correlations and vertical-horizontal acceleration correlations. A lumped element model, deduced from the equations of continuum elasticity, is employed to describe the behavior at this site in terms of a surface layer and substrate. Important ingredients in the model are the nonlinear vertical coupling between the surface layer and the substrate and the nonlinear horizontal frictional coupling between the surface layer and the substrate. The model produces results in qualitative accord with observations: acceleration asymmetry, Fourier spectrum, waiting time correlations and vertical acceleration-horizontal acceleration correlations. [We gratefully acknowledge the support of the U. S. Department of Energy through the LANL/LDRD Program for this work].

  6. Coupling rainfall observations and satellite soil moisture for predicting event soil loss in Central Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Todisco, Francesca; Brocca, Luca; Termite, Loris Francesco; Wagner, Wolfgang

    2015-04-01

    The accuracy of water soil loss prediction depends on the ability of the model to account for effects of the physical phenomena causing the output and the accuracy by which the parameters have been determined. The process based models require considerable effort to obtain appropriate parameter values and their failure to produce better results than achieved using the USLE/RUSLE model, encourages the use of the USLE/RUSLE model in roles of which it was not designed. In particular it is widely used in watershed models even at the event temporal scale. At hillslope scale, spatial variability in soil and vegetation result in spatial variations in soil moisture and consequently in runoff within the area for which soil loss estimation is required, so the modeling approach required to produce those estimates needs to be sensitive to those spatial variations in runoff. Some models include explicit consideration of runoff in determining the erosive stresses but this increases the uncertainty of the prediction due to the difficulty in parameterising the models also because the direct measures of surface runoff are rare. The same remarks are effective also for the USLE/RUSLE models including direct consideration of runoff in the erosivity factor (i.e. USLE-M by Kinnell and Risse, 1998, and USLE-MM by Bagarello et al., 2008). Moreover actually most of the rainfall-runoff models are based on the knowledge of the pre-event soil moisture that is a fundamental variable in the rainfall-runoff transformation. In addiction soil moisture is a readily available datum being possible to have easily direct pre-event measures of soil moisture using in situ sensors or satellite observations at larger spatial scale; it is also possible to derive the antecedent water content with soil moisture simulation models. The attempt made in the study is to use the pre-event soil moisture to account for the spatial variation in runoff within the area for which the soil loss estimates are required. More

  7. Observational signature of high spin at the Event Horizon Telescope

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gralla, Samuel E.; Lupsasca, Alexandru; Strominger, Andrew

    2018-04-01

    We analytically compute the observational appearance of an isotropically emitting point source on a circular, equatorial orbit near the horizon of a rapidly spinning black hole. The primary image moves on a vertical line segment, in contrast to the primarily horizontal motion of the spinless case. Secondary images, also on the vertical line, display a rich caustic structure. If detected, this unique signature could serve as a `smoking gun' for a high spin black hole in nature.

  8. August 1972 solar-terrestrial events: interplanetary magnetic field observations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, E J [Jet Propulsion Lab., Pasadena, Calif. (USA)

    1976-10-01

    A review is presented of the interplanetary magnetic field observations acquired in early August 1972 when four solar flares erupted in McMath Plage region 1976. Measurements of the interplanetary field were obtained by Earth satellites, HEOS-2 and Explorer 41, and by Pioneers 9 and 10 which, by good fortune, were radially aligned and only 45/sup 0/ east of the Earth-Sun direction. In response to the four flares, four interplanetary shocks were seen at Earth and at Pioneer 9, which was then at a heliocentric distance of 0.78 AU. However, at Pioneer 10, which was 2.2 AU from the Sun, only two forward shocks and one reverse shock were seen. The available magnetic field data acquired in the vicinity of the shocks are presented. Efforts to identify corresponding shocks at the several locations and to deduce their velocities of propagation between 0.8 and 2.2 AU are reviewed. The early studies were based on average velocities between the Sun and Pioneer 9, the Sun and Earth and the Sun and Pioneer 10. A large deceleration of the shocks between the Sun and 0.8 AU as well as between 0.8 and 2.2 AU was inferred. More recently the local velocities of the shocks at Pioneers 9 and 10 have become available. A comparision of these velocities shows little, if any, deceleration between 0.8 and 2.2 AU and implies that most or all of the deceleration actually occurred nearer the Sun. Evidence is also presented that shows a significant departure of the flare-generated shock fronts from spherical symmetry.

  9. Stochastic modeling of central apnea events in preterm infants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, Matthew T; Delos, John B; Lake, Douglas E; Lee, Hoshik; Fairchild, Karen D; Kattwinkel, John; Moorman, J Randall

    2016-04-01

    A near-ubiquitous pathology in very low birth weight infants is neonatal apnea, breathing pauses with slowing of the heart and falling blood oxygen. Events of substantial duration occasionally occur after an infant is discharged from the neonatal intensive care unit (NICU). It is not known whether apneas result from a predictable process or from a stochastic process, but the observation that they occur in seemingly random clusters justifies the use of stochastic models. We use a hidden-Markov model to analyze the distribution of durations of apneas and the distribution of times between apneas. The model suggests the presence of four breathing states, ranging from very stable (with an average lifetime of 12 h) to very unstable (with an average lifetime of 10 s). Although the states themselves are not visible, the mathematical analysis gives estimates of the transition rates among these states. We have obtained these transition rates, and shown how they change with post-menstrual age; as expected, the residence time in the more stable breathing states increases with age. We also extrapolated the model to predict the frequency of very prolonged apnea during the first year of life. This paradigm-stochastic modeling of cardiorespiratory control in neonatal infants to estimate risk for severe clinical events-may be a first step toward personalized risk assessment for life threatening apnea events after NICU discharge.

  10. Jellyfish: Observational Properties of Extreme Ram-Pressure Stripping Events in Massive Galaxy Clusters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conor, McPartland; Ebeling, Harald; Roediger, Elke

    2015-08-01

    We investigate the physical origin and observational signatures of extreme ram-pressure stripping (RPS) in 63 massive galaxy clusters at z=0.3-0.7, based on data in the F606W passband obtained with the Advanced Camera for Surveys aboard the Hubble Space Telescope. Using a training set of a dozen ``jellyfish" galaxies identified earlier in the same imaging data, we define quantitative morphological criteria to select candidate galaxies which are similar to known cases of RPS. Considering a sample of 16 ``jellyfish" galaxies (10 of which we present for the first time), we visually derive estimates of the projected direction of motion based on dynamical features such as apparent compression shocks and debris trails. Our findings suggest that the observed events occur primarily at large distances from the cluster core and involve infall trajectories featuring high impact parameters. Simple models of cluster growth show that such trajectories are consistent with two scenarios: 1) galaxy infall along filaments; and 2) infall at high velocities (≥1000 km/s) characteristic of cluster mergers. The observed distribution of events is best described by timescales of ˜few Myr in agreement with recent numerical simulations of RPS. The broader areal coverage of the Hubble Frontier Fields should provide an even larger sample of RPS events to determine the relative contributions of infall and cluster mergers. Prompted by the discovery of several jellyfish galaxies whose brightness in the F606W passband rivals or exceeds that of the respective brightest cluster galaxy, we attempt to constrain the luminosity function of galaxies undergoing RPS. The observed significant excess at the bright end compared to the luminosity functions of blue cluster members strongly suggests enhanced star formation, thus challenging theoretical and numerical studies according to which RPS merely displaces existing star-forming regions. In-depth studies of individual objects will help test our

  11. BAYESIAN TECHNIQUES FOR COMPARING TIME-DEPENDENT GRMHD SIMULATIONS TO VARIABLE EVENT HORIZON TELESCOPE OBSERVATIONS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Junhan; Marrone, Daniel P.; Chan, Chi-Kwan; Medeiros, Lia; Özel, Feryal; Psaltis, Dimitrios, E-mail: junhankim@email.arizona.edu [Department of Astronomy and Steward Observatory, University of Arizona, 933 N. Cherry Avenue, Tucson, AZ 85721 (United States)

    2016-12-01

    The Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) is a millimeter-wavelength, very-long-baseline interferometry (VLBI) experiment that is capable of observing black holes with horizon-scale resolution. Early observations have revealed variable horizon-scale emission in the Galactic Center black hole, Sagittarius A* (Sgr A*). Comparing such observations to time-dependent general relativistic magnetohydrodynamic (GRMHD) simulations requires statistical tools that explicitly consider the variability in both the data and the models. We develop here a Bayesian method to compare time-resolved simulation images to variable VLBI data, in order to infer model parameters and perform model comparisons. We use mock EHT data based on GRMHD simulations to explore the robustness of this Bayesian method and contrast it to approaches that do not consider the effects of variability. We find that time-independent models lead to offset values of the inferred parameters with artificially reduced uncertainties. Moreover, neglecting the variability in the data and the models often leads to erroneous model selections. We finally apply our method to the early EHT data on Sgr A*.

  12. Top quark event modelling and generators

    CERN Document Server

    Rahmat, Rahmat

    2016-01-01

    State-of-the-art theoretical predictions accurate to next-to-leading order QCD interfaced with Pythia8 and Herwig++ event generators are tested by comparing the unfolded ttbar differential data collected with the CMS detector at 8 TeV. These predictions are also compared with the underlying event activity distributions in ttbar events using CMS proton-proton data collected in 2015 at a center of mass energy of 13 TeV.

  13. Plasma and field observations of a compressional Pc 5 wave event

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baumjohann, W.; Sckopke, N.; LaBelle, J.; Klecker, B.; Luehr, H.; Glassmeier, K.H.

    1987-01-01

    On October 24, 1984, the AMPTE/IRM satellite, on its inbound orbit in the 1,300 LT sector, observed a strong compressional Pc 5 event lasting for about an hour. The use of data from the full complement of detectors aboard the spacecraft allowed for detailed measurements of field and particle oscillations, with the latter covering energies from a few electron volts up to tens of keV (electrons) or even 1 MeV (protons). Both energetic proton and electron fluxes were anticorrelated with the compressional magnetic field oscillations, indicating that the event belongs to the class of in-phase events. But the energetic proton data also exhibited a new feature: Flux minima and maxima at low energies were observed somewhat later than those at higher energies. The magnetic and plasma pressure oscillations satisfy the pressure balance equation for the drift mirror mode much better than that for drift compressional Alfven waves. However, the classical criterion for the onset of the mirror instability is not satisfied. The low-energy particles showed clear signatures of gradient convection due to the wave electric field with the protons additionally undergoing gyration acceleration. The period of the pulsation decreased while the satellite was moving inward, in agreement with the individual L shell resonance model. But in contrast to earlier observations the periods of the compressional and transverse oscillations differed significantly (by ∼ 25%). The authors interpret this as Doppler shift due to spacecraft motion since in the present event the transverse oscillations did not have the purely radial (poloidal) polarization common to other published cases

  14. Observations of IMF coherent structures and their relationship to SEP dropout events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Trenchi

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available The solar energetic particle (SEP events from impulsive solar flares are often characterized by short-timescale modulations affecting, at the same time, particles with different energies. Several models and simulations suggest that these modulations are observed when SEPs propagate through magnetic structures with a different connection with the flare site. However, in situ observations rarely showed clear magnetic signatures associated with these modulations. In this paper we used the Grad–Shafranov reconstruction to perform a detailed analysis of the local magnetic field topology during the SEP event of 9–10 January 1999, characterized by several SEP dropouts. An optimization procedure is used to identify, during this SEP event, the magnetic structures which better satisfy the Grad–Shafranov assumptions and to evaluate the direction of their invariant axis. We found that these two-dimensional structures, which are flux ropes or current sheets with a more complex field topology, are generally associated with the maxima in the SEP counts. This association suggests that the SEPs propagate within these structures and, since their gyration radii is much smaller than the transverse dimension of these structure, cannot escape from them.

  15. Long-duration high-energy proton events observed by GOES in October 1989

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Anttila

    1998-08-01

    Full Text Available We consider the prolonged injection of the high-energy (>10 MeV protons during the three successive events observed by GOES in October 1989. We apply a solar-rotation-stereoscopy approach to study the injection of the accelerated particles from the CME-driven interplanetary shock waves in order to find out how the effectiveness of the particle acceleration and/or escape depends on the angular distance from the shock axis. We use an empirical model for the proton injection at the shock and a standard model of the interplanetary transport. The model can reproduce rather well the observed intensity–time profiles of the October 1989 events. The deduced proton injection rate is highest at the nose of the shock; the injection spectrum is always harder near the Sun. The results seem to be consistent with the scheme that the CME-driven interplanetary shock waves accelerate a seed particle population of coronal origin.Key words. Interplanetary physics · Energetic particles · Solar physics · astrophysics and astronomy · Flares and mass ejections

  16. Design and Use of the Simple Event Model (SEM)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Hage, W.R.; Malaisé, V.; Segers, R.H.; Hollink, L.

    2011-01-01

    Events have become central elements in the representation of data from domains such as history, cultural heritage, multimedia and geography. The Simple Event Model (SEM) is created to model events in these various domains, without making assumptions about the domain-specific vocabularies used. SEM

  17. Martian Ionospheric Observation and Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    González-Galindo, Francisco

    2018-02-01

    measurements by different space missions. Numerical simulations by computational models able to simulate the processes that shape the ionosphere have also been commonly employed to obtain information about this region, to provide an interpretation of the observations and to fill their gaps. As a result, the Martian ionosphere is today the best known one after that of the Earth. However, there are still areas for which our knowledge is far from being complete. Examples are the details and balance of the mechanisms populating the nightside ionosphere, or a good understanding of the meteoric ionospheric layer and its variability.

  18. Events Marketing Model of Dubai Shopping Festival

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Prakash Vel

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Cities and places have become major destinations through taking the extra mile of creativity and offering a well-researched package of offerings through systematically planned events. One such leading example in the list of successful festivals that have earned a global reputation due to its uniqueness and creative event offerings is the Dubai Shopping Festival (DSF in the United Arab Emirates. This paper is a case study based description of the internal and external drivers involved in planning and implementing a global event successfully and has captured the various drivers through a structured framework. The analysis serves as a good addition to the existing literature on ‘Events Marketing’. 

  19. Reconnection at the earth's magnetopause - Magnetic field observations and flux transfer events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Russell, C. T.

    1984-01-01

    Theoretical models of plasma acceleration by magnetic-field-line reconnection at the earth magnetopause and the high-resolution three-dimensional plasma measurements obtained with the ISEE satellites are compared and illustrated with diagrams, graphs, drawings, and histograms. The history of reconnection theory and the results of early satellite observations are summarized; the thickness of the magnetopause current layer is discussed; problems in analyzing the polarization of current-layer rotation are considered; and the flux-transfer events responsible for periods of patchy reconnection are characterized in detail. The need for further observations and refinements of the theory to explain the initiation of reconnection and identify the mechanism determining whether it is patchy or steady-state is indicated.

  20. Properties of Coronal Shocks at the Origin of SEP events Observed by Only One Single Spacecraft

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lario, D.; Kwon, R.

    2017-12-01

    The simultaneous observation of solar energetic particle (SEP) events by multiple spacecraft distributed in the interplanetary medium depends not only on the spatial separation among the different spacecraft, but also on the properties of the particle sources and the characteristics of the SEP transport in interplanetary space. Among the SEP events observed by STEREO-A, STEREO-B and/or near-Earth spacecraft during solar cycle 24, we select SEP events observed by a single spacecraft (specifically, the SEP events observed only by near-Earth spacecraft on 2012 April 5, 2011 September 4, and 2013 August 17). We analyze whether the properties of the coronal shock associated with the origin of the events (as seen in extreme-ultraviolet and white-light coronal images) differ from those associated with SEP events observed by two or three spacecraft. For the selected events we find that the associated CMEs are, in general, narrower than those associated with SEP events observed by two or three spacecraft. The confined extension of the parent coronal shock and the absence of magnetic connection between distant spacecraft and the regions of the expanding coronal shock able to efficiently accelerate SEPs seem to be the conditions leading to intense SEP events observed only over narrow regions of interplanetary space by spacecraft magnetically connected to regions close to the parent eruption site. Weak and gradual intensity increases observed in extended regions of space might involve transport processes and/or later connections established with interplanetary shocks. Systematic analyses of a larger number of events are required before drawing firm conclusions.

  1. A study of different colour reconnection settings for Pythia8 generator using underlying event observables

    CERN Document Server

    The ATLAS collaboration

    2017-01-01

    A study of the performance of various colour reconnection models included in the Pythia8 Monte Carlo event generator is performed using leading charged-particle underlying event data in three centre-of-mass energies from Run 1 and Run 2, measured in ATLAS. Each model can be tuned to describe the data reasonably well.

  2. Characterizing Turbulent Events at a Tidal Energy Site from Acoustic Doppler Velocity Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCaffrey, Katherine; Fox-Kemper, Baylor; Hamlington, Peter

    2013-11-01

    As interest in marine renewable energy increases, observations are crucial to understanding the environments encountered by energy conversion devices. Data obtained from an acoustic Doppler current profiler and an acoustic Doppler velocimeter at two locations in the Puget Sound, WA are used to perform a detailed analysis of the turbulent environment that is expected to be present at a turbine placed in a tidal strait. Metrics such as turbulence intensity, structure functions, probability density functions, intermittency, coherent turbulence kinetic energy, anisotropy invariants, and linear combinations of eigenvalues are used to characterize the turbulence. The results indicate that coherent turbulence kinetic energy and turbulence intensity can be used to identify and parameterize different turbulent events in the flow. An analysis of the anisotropy characteristics leads to a physical description of turbulent events (defined using both turbulence intensity and coherent turbulent kinetic energy) as being dominated by one component of the Reynolds stresses. During non-turbulent events, the flow is dominated by two Reynolds stress components. The importance of these results for the development of realistic models of energy conversion devices is outlined. Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences.

  3. Foundations for Streaming Model Transformations by Complex Event Processing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dávid, István; Ráth, István; Varró, Dániel

    2018-01-01

    Streaming model transformations represent a novel class of transformations to manipulate models whose elements are continuously produced or modified in high volume and with rapid rate of change. Executing streaming transformations requires efficient techniques to recognize activated transformation rules over a live model and a potentially infinite stream of events. In this paper, we propose foundations of streaming model transformations by innovatively integrating incremental model query, complex event processing (CEP) and reactive (event-driven) transformation techniques. Complex event processing allows to identify relevant patterns and sequences of events over an event stream. Our approach enables event streams to include model change events which are automatically and continuously populated by incremental model queries. Furthermore, a reactive rule engine carries out transformations on identified complex event patterns. We provide an integrated domain-specific language with precise semantics for capturing complex event patterns and streaming transformations together with an execution engine, all of which is now part of the Viatra reactive transformation framework. We demonstrate the feasibility of our approach with two case studies: one in an advanced model engineering workflow; and one in the context of on-the-fly gesture recognition.

  4. Stochastic modeling of central apnea events in preterm infants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clark, Matthew T; Lake, Douglas E; Randall Moorman, J; Delos, John B; Lee, Hoshik; Fairchild, Karen D; Kattwinkel, John

    2016-01-01

    A near-ubiquitous pathology in very low birth weight infants is neonatal apnea, breathing pauses with slowing of the heart and falling blood oxygen. Events of substantial duration occasionally occur after an infant is discharged from the neonatal intensive care unit (NICU). It is not known whether apneas result from a predictable process or from a stochastic process, but the observation that they occur in seemingly random clusters justifies the use of stochastic models. We use a hidden-Markov model to analyze the distribution of durations of apneas and the distribution of times between apneas. The model suggests the presence of four breathing states, ranging from very stable (with an average lifetime of 12 h) to very unstable (with an average lifetime of 10 s). Although the states themselves are not visible, the mathematical analysis gives estimates of the transition rates among these states. We have obtained these transition rates, and shown how they change with post-menstrual age; as expected, the residence time in the more stable breathing states increases with age. We also extrapolated the model to predict the frequency of very prolonged apnea during the first year of life. This paradigm—stochastic modeling of cardiorespiratory control in neonatal infants to estimate risk for severe clinical events—may be a first step toward personalized risk assessment for life threatening apnea events after NICU discharge. (paper)

  5. Hygrothermal modelling of flooding events within historic buildings

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Huijbregts, Z.; Schellen, H.L.; Schijndel, van A.W.M.; Blades, N.

    2014-01-01

    Flooding events pose a high risk to valuable monumental buildings and their interiors. Due to higher river discharges and sea level rise, flooding events may occur more often in future. Hygrothermal building simulation models can be applied to investigate the impact of a flooding event on the

  6. Hygrothermal modelling of flooding events within historic buildings

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Huijbregts, Z.; Schijndel, van A.W.M.; Schellen, H.L.; Blades, N.; Mahdavi, A.; Mertens, B.

    2013-01-01

    Flooding events pose a high risk to valuable monumental buildings and their interiors. Due to higher river discharges and sea level rise, flooding events may occur more often in future. Hygrothermal building simulation models can be applied to investigate the impact of a flooding event on the

  7. Observation of events with an energetic forward neutron in deep inelastic scattering at HERA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Derrick, M.; Krakauer, D.; Magill, S.

    1996-05-01

    In deep inelastic neutral current scattering of positrons and protons at the center of mass energy of 300 GeV, we observe, with the ZEUS detector, events with a high energy neutron produced at very small scattering angles with respect to the proton direction. The events constitute a fixed fraction of the deep inelastic, neutral current event sample independent of Bjorken x and Q 2 in the range 3.10 -4 BJ -3 and 10 2 2 . (orig.)

  8. The first SEPServer event catalogue ~68-MeV solar proton events observed at 1 AU in 1996–2010

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rodríguez-Gasén Rosa

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available SEPServer is a three-year collaborative project funded by the seventh framework programme (FP7-SPACE of the European Union. The objective of the project is to provide access to state-of-the-art observations and analysis tools for the scientific community on solar energetic particle (SEP events and related electromagnetic (EM emissions. The project will eventually lead to better understanding of the particle acceleration and transport processes at the Sun and in the inner heliosphere. These processes lead to SEP events that form one of the key elements of space weather. In this paper we present the first results from the systematic analysis work performed on the following datasets: SOHO/ERNE, SOHO/EPHIN, ACE/EPAM, Wind/WAVES and GOES X-rays. A catalogue of SEP events at 1 AU, with complete coverage over solar cycle 23, based on high-energy (~68-MeV protons from SOHO/ERNE and electron recordings of the events by SOHO/EPHIN and ACE/EPAM are presented. A total of 115 energetic particle events have been identified and analysed using velocity dispersion analysis (VDA for protons and time-shifting analysis (TSA for electrons and protons in order to infer the SEP release times at the Sun. EM observations during the times of the SEP event onset have been gathered and compared to the release time estimates of particles. Data from those events that occurred during the European day-time, i.e., those that also have observations from ground-based observatories included in SEPServer, are listed and a preliminary analysis of their associations is presented. We find that VDA results for protons can be a useful tool for the analysis of proton release times, but if the derived proton path length is out of a range of 1 AU < s ≲ 3 AU, the result of the analysis may be compromised, as indicated by the anti-correlation of the derived path length and release time delay from the associated X-ray flare. The average path length derived from VDA is about 1.9 times

  9. Review of Wind Energy Forecasting Methods for Modeling Ramping Events

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wharton, S; Lundquist, J K; Marjanovic, N; Williams, J L; Rhodes, M; Chow, T K; Maxwell, R

    2011-03-28

    Tall onshore wind turbines, with hub heights between 80 m and 100 m, can extract large amounts of energy from the atmosphere since they generally encounter higher wind speeds, but they face challenges given the complexity of boundary layer flows. This complexity of the lowest layers of the atmosphere, where wind turbines reside, has made conventional modeling efforts less than ideal. To meet the nation's goal of increasing wind power into the U.S. electrical grid, the accuracy of wind power forecasts must be improved. In this report, the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, in collaboration with the University of Colorado at Boulder, University of California at Berkeley, and Colorado School of Mines, evaluates innovative approaches to forecasting sudden changes in wind speed or 'ramping events' at an onshore, multimegawatt wind farm. The forecast simulations are compared to observations of wind speed and direction from tall meteorological towers and a remote-sensing Sound Detection and Ranging (SODAR) instrument. Ramping events, i.e., sudden increases or decreases in wind speed and hence, power generated by a turbine, are especially problematic for wind farm operators. Sudden changes in wind speed or direction can lead to large power generation differences across a wind farm and are very difficult to predict with current forecasting tools. Here, we quantify the ability of three models, mesoscale WRF, WRF-LES, and PF.WRF, which vary in sophistication and required user expertise, to predict three ramping events at a North American wind farm.

  10. A model of return intervals between earthquake events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Yu; Chechkin, Aleksei; Sokolov, Igor M.; Kantz, Holger

    2016-06-01

    Application of the diffusion entropy analysis and the standard deviation analysis to the time sequence of the southern California earthquake events from 1976 to 2002 uncovered scaling behavior typical for anomalous diffusion. However, the origin of such behavior is still under debate. Some studies attribute the scaling behavior to the correlations in the return intervals, or waiting times, between aftershocks or mainshocks. To elucidate a nature of the scaling, we applied specific reshulffling techniques to eliminate correlations between different types of events and then examined how it affects the scaling behavior. We demonstrate that the origin of the scaling behavior observed is the interplay between mainshock waiting time distribution and the structure of clusters of aftershocks, but not correlations in waiting times between the mainshocks and aftershocks themselves. Our findings are corroborated by numerical simulations of a simple model showing a very similar behavior. The mainshocks are modeled by a renewal process with a power-law waiting time distribution between events, and aftershocks follow a nonhomogeneous Poisson process with the rate governed by Omori's law.

  11. Evaluating MJO Event Initiation and Decay in the Skeleton Model using an RMM-like Index

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-11-25

    univariate zonal wind EOF analysis, the mean number of continuing events exceeds 437 observations, though the observed number falls within the 95...year simulation period using the truncated, 464 observed SSTs. Approximately two-thirds of the observed events fall within 20-100 days with a 465...Advances in simulating atmospheric variability with the ECMWF 745 model: From synoptic to decadal time-scales, Q. J. Roy. Meteor . Soc.. 134, 1337

  12. A Semi-Automatic, Remote-Controlled Video Observation System for Transient Luminous Events

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Allin, Thomas Højgaard; Neubert, Torsten; Laursen, Steen

    2003-01-01

    In support for global ELF/VLF observations, HF measurements in France, and conjugate photometry/VLF observations in South Africa, we developed and operated a semi-automatic, remotely controlled video system for the observation of middle-atmospheric transient luminous events (TLEs). Installed...

  13. Modelling substorm chorus events in terms of dispersive azimuthal drift

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. B. Collier

    2004-12-01

    Full Text Available The Substorm Chorus Event (SCE is a radio phenomenon observed on the ground after the onset of the substorm expansion phase. It consists of a band of VLF chorus with rising upper and lower cutoff frequencies. These emissions are thought to result from Doppler-shifted cyclotron resonance between whistler mode waves and energetic electrons which drift into a ground station's field of view from an injection site around midnight. The increasing frequency of the emission envelope has been attributed to the combined effects of energy dispersion due to gradient and curvature drifts, and the modification of resonance conditions and variation of the half-gyrofrequency cutoff resulting from the radial component of the ExB drift.

    A model is presented which accounts for the observed features of the SCE in terms of the growth rate of whistler mode waves due to anisotropy in the electron distribution. This model provides an explanation for the increasing frequency of the SCE lower cutoff, as well as reproducing the general frequency-time signature of the event. In addition, the results place some restrictions on the injected particle source distribution which might lead to a SCE.

    Key words. Space plasma physics (Wave-particle interaction – Magnetospheric physics (Plasma waves and instabilities; Storms and substorms

  14. Modelling substorm chorus events in terms of dispersive azimuthal drift

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. B. Collier

    2004-12-01

    Full Text Available The Substorm Chorus Event (SCE is a radio phenomenon observed on the ground after the onset of the substorm expansion phase. It consists of a band of VLF chorus with rising upper and lower cutoff frequencies. These emissions are thought to result from Doppler-shifted cyclotron resonance between whistler mode waves and energetic electrons which drift into a ground station's field of view from an injection site around midnight. The increasing frequency of the emission envelope has been attributed to the combined effects of energy dispersion due to gradient and curvature drifts, and the modification of resonance conditions and variation of the half-gyrofrequency cutoff resulting from the radial component of the ExB drift. A model is presented which accounts for the observed features of the SCE in terms of the growth rate of whistler mode waves due to anisotropy in the electron distribution. This model provides an explanation for the increasing frequency of the SCE lower cutoff, as well as reproducing the general frequency-time signature of the event. In addition, the results place some restrictions on the injected particle source distribution which might lead to a SCE. Key words. Space plasma physics (Wave-particle interaction – Magnetospheric physics (Plasma waves and instabilities; Storms and substorms

  15. TRANSITION REGION AND CHROMOSPHERIC SIGNATURES OF IMPULSIVE HEATING EVENTS. I. OBSERVATIONS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Warren, Harry P. [Space Science Division, Naval Research Laboratory, Washington, DC 20375 (United States); Reep, Jeffrey W. [National Research Council Postdoctoral Fellow, Space Science Division, Naval Research Laboratory, Washington, DC 20375 (United States); Crump, Nicholas A. [Naval Center for Space Technology, Naval Research Laboratory, Washington, DC 20375 (United States); Simões, Paulo J. A. [SUPA School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Glasgow, Glasgow G12 8QQ (United Kingdom)

    2016-09-20

    We exploit the high spatial resolution and high cadence of the Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph ( IRIS ) to investigate the response of the transition region and chromosphere to energy deposition during a small flare. Simultaneous observations from the Reuven Ramaty High Energy Solar Spectroscopic Imager provide constraints on the energetic electrons precipitating into the flare footpoints, while observations of the X-Ray Telescope , Atmospheric Imaging Assembly, and Extreme Ultraviolet Imaging Spectrometer (EIS) allow us to measure the temperatures and emission measures from the resulting flare loops. We find clear evidence for heating over an extended period on the spatial scale of a single IRIS pixel. During the impulsive phase of this event, the intensities in each pixel for the Si iv 1402.770 Å, C ii 1334.535 Å, Mg ii 2796.354 Å, and O i 1355.598 Å emission lines are characterized by numerous small-scale bursts typically lasting 60 s or less. Redshifts are observed in Si iv, C ii, and Mg ii during the impulsive phase. Mg ii shows redshifts during the bursts and stationary emission at other times. The Si iv and C ii profiles, in contrast, are observed to be redshifted at all times during the impulsive phase. These persistent redshifts are a challenge for one-dimensional hydrodynamic models, which predict only short-duration downflows in response to impulsive heating. We conjecture that energy is being released on many small-scale filaments with a power-law distribution of heating rates.

  16. Application of declarative modeling approaches for external events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anoba, R.C.

    2005-01-01

    Probabilistic Safety Assessments (PSAs) are increasingly being used as a tool for supporting the acceptability of design, procurement, construction, operation, and maintenance activities at Nuclear Power Plants. Since the issuance of Generic Letter 88-20 and subsequent IPE/IPEEE assessments, the NRC has issued several Regulatory Guides such as RG 1.174 to describe the use of PSA in risk-informed regulation activities. Most PSA have the capability to address internal events including internal floods. As the more demands are being placed for using the PSA to support risk-informed applications, there has been a growing need to integrate other eternal events (Seismic, Fire, etc.) into the logic models. Most external events involve spatial dependencies and usually impact the logic models at the component level. Therefore, manual insertion of external events impacts into a complex integrated fault tree model may be too cumbersome for routine uses of the PSA. Within the past year, a declarative modeling approach has been developed to automate the injection of external events into the PSA. The intent of this paper is to introduce the concept of declarative modeling in the context of external event applications. A declarative modeling approach involves the definition of rules for injection of external event impacts into the fault tree logic. A software tool such as the EPRI's XInit program can be used to interpret the pre-defined rules and automatically inject external event elements into the PSA. The injection process can easily be repeated, as required, to address plant changes, sensitivity issues, changes in boundary conditions, etc. External event elements may include fire initiating events, seismic initiating events, seismic fragilities, fire-induced hot short events, special human failure events, etc. This approach has been applied at a number of US nuclear power plants including a nuclear power plant in Romania. (authors)

  17. Observations of hybrid seismic events at Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat: July 1995 to September 1996

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, R.A.; Miller, A.D.; Lynch, L.; Power, J.

    1998-01-01

    Swarms of small repetitive events with similar waveforms and magnitudes are often observed during the emplacement of lava domes. Over 300 000 such events were recorded in association with the emplacement of the lava dome at Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat, from August 1995 through August 1996. These events originated Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat, from August 1995 through August 1996. These events originated <2-3 km deep. They exhibited energy ranging over approximately 1.5-4.5 Hz and were broader band than typical long-period events. We term the events `hybrid' between long-period and volcano-tectonic. The events were more impulsive and broader band prior to, compared with during and after, periods of inferred increased magma flux rate. Individual swarms contained up to 10,000 events often exhibiting very similar magnitudes and waveforms throughout the swarm. Swarms lasted hours to weeks, during which inter-event intervals generally increased, then decreased, often several times. Long-duration swarms began about every two months starting in late September 1995. We speculate that the events were produced as the magma column degassed into adjacent cracks.

  18. Event-based Simulation Model for Quantum Optics Experiments

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    De Raedt, H.; Michielsen, K.; Jaeger, G; Khrennikov, A; Schlosshauer, M; Weihs, G

    2011-01-01

    We present a corpuscular simulation model of optical phenomena that does not require the knowledge of the solution of a wave equation of the whole system and reproduces the results of Maxwell's theory by generating detection events one-by-one. The event-based corpuscular model gives a unified

  19. Soil moisture prediction: bridging event and continuous runoff modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sheikh, V.

    2006-01-01

    The general objective of this study was to investigate the possibility of providing spatially distributed soil moisture data for event-based hydrological models close before a rainfall event. The study area is known as "Catsop", a small catchmment in south Limburg. The models used are: LISEM and

  20. Event-Based Corpuscular Model for Quantum Optics Experiments

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Michielsen, K.; Jin, F.; Raedt, H. De

    A corpuscular simulation model of optical phenomena that does not require the knowledge of the solution of a wave equation of the whole system and reproduces the results of Maxwell's theory by generating detection events one-by-one is presented. The event-based corpuscular model is shown to give a

  1. Summary of exotic cosmic-ray events observed with the Mt. Fuji emulsion chambers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Akashi, M.; Amenomori, M.; Konishi, E.

    1982-01-01

    The characters of peculiar gamma-ray families observed by a total of 700 m 2 year exposure of emulsion chambers at Mt.Fuji are presented. Their peculiarities are investigated in terms of clusterization and intercorrelation of various quantities of families. Double core families having clearly separated cores are selected by the cluster analysis method, and their structures are discussed in connection with large Pt and the type of incident primaries. The cluster analysis method is also applied to the examination of large multiplicity events so that we are free the limitation of spatial resolution. From the analysis of intercorrelation, it is stressed that the experimental data show larger fluctuations than expected ones from some model calculations

  2. Initiating Events Modeling for On-Line Risk Monitoring Application

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Simic, Z.; Mikulicic, V.

    1998-01-01

    In order to make on-line risk monitoring application of Probabilistic Risk Assessment more complete and realistic, a special attention need to be dedicated to initiating events modeling. Two different issues are of special importance: one is how to model initiating events frequency according to current plant configuration (equipment alignment and out of service status) and operating condition (weather and various activities), and the second is how to preserve dependencies between initiating events model and rest of PRA model. First, the paper will discuss how initiating events can be treated in on-line risk monitoring application. Second, practical example of initiating events modeling in EPRI's Equipment Out of Service on-line monitoring tool will be presented. Gains from application and possible improvements will be discussed in conclusion. (author)

  3. Modeling energy market dynamics using discrete event system simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gutierrez-Alcaraz, G.; Sheble, G.B.

    2009-01-01

    This paper proposes the use of Discrete Event System Simulation to study the interactions among fuel and electricity markets and consumers, and the decision-making processes of fuel companies (FUELCOs), generation companies (GENCOs), and consumers in a simple artificial energy market. In reality, since markets can reach a stable equilibrium or fail, it is important to observe how they behave in a dynamic framework. We consider a Nash-Cournot model in which marketers are depicted as Nash-Cournot players that determine supply to meet end-use consumption. Detailed engineering considerations such as transportation network flows are omitted, because the focus is upon the selection and use of appropriate market models to provide answers to policy questions. (author)

  4. Predicting extreme rainfall events over Jeddah, Saudi Arabia: Impact of data assimilation with conventional and satellite observations

    KAUST Repository

    Viswanadhapalli, Yesubabu

    2015-08-20

    The impact of variational data assimilation for predicting two heavy rainfall events that caused devastating floods in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia is studied using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. On 25 November 2009 and 26 January 2011, the city was deluged with more than double the annual rainfall amount caused by convective storms. We used a high resolution, two-way nested domain WRF model to simulate the two rainfall episodes. Simulations include control runs initialized with National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecasting System (GFS) data and 3-Dimensional Variational (3DVAR) data assimilation experiments conducted by assimilating NCEP prepbufr and radiance observations. Observations from Automated Weather Stations (AWS), synoptic charts, radar reflectivity and satellite pictures from the Presidency of Meteorology and Environment (PME), Jeddah, Saudi Arabia are used to assess the forecasting results. To evaluate the impact of the different assimilated observational datasets on the simulation of the major flooding event of 2009, we conducted 3DVAR experiments assimilating individual sources and a combination of all data sets. Results suggest that while the control run had a tendency to predict the storm earlier than observed, the assimilation of profile observations greatly improved the model\\'s thermodynamic structure and lead to better representation of simulated rainfall both in timing and amount. The experiment with assimilation of all available observations compared best with observed rainfall in terms of timing of the storm and rainfall distribution, demonstrating the importance of assimilating different types of observations. Retrospective experiments with and without data assimilation, for three different model lead times (48, 72 and 96-h), were performed to examine the skill of WRF model to predict the heavy rainfall events. Quantitative rainfall analysis of these simulations suggests that 48-h lead time runs with

  5. Mercury fluxes over an Australian alpine grassland and observation of nocturnal atmospheric mercury depletion events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Howard

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Aerodynamic gradient measurements of the air–surface exchange of gaseous elemental mercury (GEM were undertaken over a 40 ha alpine grassland in Australia's Snowy Mountains region across a 3-week period during the late austral summer. Bi-directional GEM fluxes were observed throughout the study, with overall mean value of 0.2 ± 14.5 ng m−2 h−1 and mean nocturnal fluxes of −1.5 ± 7.8 ng m−2 h−1 compared to diurnal fluxes of 1.8 ± 18.6 ng m−2 h−1. Deposition velocities ranged from −2.2 to 2.9 cm s−1, whilst ambient GEM concentrations throughout the study were 0.59 ± 0.10 ng m−3. Cumulative GEM fluxes correlated well with 24 h running mean soil temperatures, and one precipitation event was shown to have a positive impact on diurnal emission fluxes. The underlying vegetation had largely senesced and showed little stomatal control on fluxes. Nocturnal atmospheric mercury depletion events (NAMDEs were observed concomitant with O3 depletion and dew formation under shallow, stable nocturnal boundary layers. A mass balance box model was able to reproduce ambient GEM concentration patterns during NAMDE and non-NAMDE nights without invoking chemical oxidation of GEM throughout the column, indicating a significant role of surface processes controlling deposition in these events. Surface deposition was enhanced under NAMDE nights, though uptake to dew likely represents less than one-fifth of this enhanced deposition. Instead, enhancement of the surface GEM gradient as a result of oxidation at the surface in the presence of dew is hypothesised to be responsible for a large portion of GEM depletion during these particular events. GEM emission pulses following nights with significant deposition provide evidence for the prompt recycling of 17 % of deposited mercury, with the remaining portion retained in surface sinks. The long-term impacts of any sinks are however likely to be minimal, as

  6. Modelling machine ensembles with discrete event dynamical system theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunter, Dan

    1990-01-01

    Discrete Event Dynamical System (DEDS) theory can be utilized as a control strategy for future complex machine ensembles that will be required for in-space construction. The control strategy involves orchestrating a set of interactive submachines to perform a set of tasks for a given set of constraints such as minimum time, minimum energy, or maximum machine utilization. Machine ensembles can be hierarchically modeled as a global model that combines the operations of the individual submachines. These submachines are represented in the global model as local models. Local models, from the perspective of DEDS theory , are described by the following: a set of system and transition states, an event alphabet that portrays actions that takes a submachine from one state to another, an initial system state, a partial function that maps the current state and event alphabet to the next state, and the time required for the event to occur. Each submachine in the machine ensemble is presented by a unique local model. The global model combines the local models such that the local models can operate in parallel under the additional logistic and physical constraints due to submachine interactions. The global model is constructed from the states, events, event functions, and timing requirements of the local models. Supervisory control can be implemented in the global model by various methods such as task scheduling (open-loop control) or implementing a feedback DEDS controller (closed-loop control).

  7. Connecting macroscopic observables and microscopic assembly events in amyloid formation using coarse grained simulations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Noah S Bieler

    Full Text Available The pre-fibrillar stages of amyloid formation have been implicated in cellular toxicity, but have proved to be challenging to study directly in experiments and simulations. Rational strategies to suppress the formation of toxic amyloid oligomers require a better understanding of the mechanisms by which they are generated. We report Dynamical Monte Carlo simulations that allow us to study the early stages of amyloid formation. We use a generic, coarse-grained model of an amyloidogenic peptide that has two internal states: the first one representing the soluble random coil structure and the second one the [Formula: see text]-sheet conformation. We find that this system exhibits a propensity towards fibrillar self-assembly following the formation of a critical nucleus. Our calculations establish connections between the early nucleation events and the kinetic information available in the later stages of the aggregation process that are commonly probed in experiments. We analyze the kinetic behaviour in our simulations within the framework of the theory of classical nucleated polymerisation, and are able to connect the structural events at the early stages in amyloid growth with the resulting macroscopic observables such as the effective nucleus size. Furthermore, the free-energy landscapes that emerge from these simulations allow us to identify pertinent properties of the monomeric state that could be targeted to suppress oligomer formation.

  8. Underlying event sensitive observables in Drell-Yan production using GENEVA

    CERN Document Server

    Alioli, Simone; Guns, Sam; Tackmann, Frank J.

    2016-11-09

    We present an extension of the GENEVA Monte Carlo framework to include multiple parton interactions (MPI) provided by PYTHIA8. This allows us to obtain predictions for underlying-event sensitive measurements in Drell-Yan production, in conjunction with GENEVA's fully-differential NNLO calculation, NNLL' resummation for the 0-jet resolution variable (beam thrust), and NLL resummation for the 1-jet resolution variable. We describe the interface with the parton shower algorithm and MPI model of PYTHIA8, which preserves both the precision of partonic N-jet cross sections in GENEVA as well as the shower accuracy and good description of soft hadronic physics of PYTHIA8. We present results for several underlying-event sensitive observables and compare to data from ATLAS and CMS as well as to standalone PYTHIA8 predictions. This includes a comparison with the recent ATLAS measurement of the beam thrust spectrum, which provides a potential avenue to fully disentangle the physical effects from the primary hard interact...

  9. Observable Emission Features of Black Hole GRMHD Jets on Event Horizon Scales

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pu, Hung-Yi [Perimeter Institute for Theoretical Physics, 31 Caroline Street North, Waterloo, ON, N2L 2Y5 (Canada); Wu, Kinwah [Mullard Space Science Laboratory, University College London, Holmbury St. Mary, Dorking, Surrey, RH5 6NT (United Kingdom); Younsi, Ziri; Mizuno, Yosuke [Institut für Theoretische Physik, Max-von-Laue-Straße 1, D-60438 Frankfurt am Main (Germany); Asada, Keiichi; Nakamura, Masanori, E-mail: hpu@perimeterinstitute.ca, E-mail: asada@asiaa.sinica.edu.tw, E-mail: nakamura@asiaa.sinica.edu.tw, E-mail: kinwah.wu@ucl.ac.uk, E-mail: younsi@th.physik.uni-frankfurt.de, E-mail: mizuno@th.physik.uni-frankfurt.de [Institute of Astronomy and Astrophysics, Academia Sinica, 11F of Astronomy-Mathematics Building, AS/NTU No. 1, Taipei 10617, Taiwan (China)

    2017-08-20

    The general-relativistic magnetohydrodynamical (GRMHD) formulation for black hole-powered jets naturally gives rise to a stagnation surface, where inflows and outflows along magnetic field lines that thread the black hole event horizon originate. We derive a conservative formulation for the transport of energetic electrons, which are initially injected at the stagnation surface and subsequently transported along flow streamlines. With this formulation the energy spectra evolution of the electrons along the flow in the presence of radiative and adiabatic cooling is determined. For flows regulated by synchrotron radiative losses and adiabatic cooling, the effective radio emission region is found to be finite, and geometrically it is more extended along the jet central axis. Moreover, the emission from regions adjacent to the stagnation surface is expected to be the most luminous as this is where the freshly injected energetic electrons are concentrated. An observable stagnation surface is thus a strong prediction of the GRMHD jet model with the prescribed non-thermal electron injection. Future millimeter/submillimeter (mm/sub-mm) very-long-baseline interferometric observations of supermassive black hole candidates, such as the one at the center of M87, can verify this GRMHD jet model and its associated non-thermal electron injection mechanism.

  10. Using ENLIL and SEPMOD to Evaluate Shock Connectivity Influences on Gradual SEP Events Observed with STEREO and ACE

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luhmann, J. G.; Mays, M. L.; Li, Y.; Bain, H. M.; Lee, C. O.; Odstrcil, D.; Mewaldt, R. A.; Cohen, C.; Leske, R. A.

    2017-12-01

    An observer's magnetic field connection to a SEP-producing interplanetary shock (or compression) source often appears to provide a good indicator of whether or not a SEP event occurs. As a result, some tools for SEP event modeling make use of this finding. However, a key assumption of these approaches is that the interplanetary magnetic field and heliospheric shock geometries are known throughout the event(s). We consider examples of SEP time profile calculations obtained with combined ENLIL and SEPMOD modeling where the results compare well with observations at multiple inner heliosphere sites, and compare them to cases where such comparisons show a relative lack of agreement. ENLIL does not include the shock inside 21 Rs or CME/ICME ejecta magnetic fields, but for the agreeable cases this does not seem to make a big difference. The number, size, speed and directions of related CMEs/ICMEs, and ENLIL field line geometry appear to play the most critical roles. This includes the inclusion of prior and parallel events that affect both the ICME propagation and magnetic field geometry and strength along the observer field line. It seems clear that if a SEP forecasting system is desired, we must continue to have instrumentation that allows us to specify global CME/ICME initiation geometry (coronagraphs, XUV/EUV imagers) and background solar wind structure (magnetographs).

  11. Event-Entity-Relationship Modeling in Data Warehouse Environments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bækgaard, Lars

    We use the event-entity-relationship model (EVER) to illustrate the use of entity-based modeling languages for conceptual schema design in data warehouse environments. EVER is a general-purpose information modeling language that supports the specification of both general schema structures and multi......-dimensional schemes that are customized to serve specific information needs. EVER is based on an event concept that is very well suited for multi-dimensional modeling because measurement data often represent events in multi-dimensional databases...

  12. Station Set Residual: Event Classification Using Historical Distribution of Observing Stations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Procopio, Mike; Lewis, Jennifer; Young, Chris

    2010-05-01

    Analysts working at the International Data Centre in support of treaty monitoring through the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization spend a significant amount of time reviewing hypothesized seismic events produced by an automatic processing system. When reviewing these events to determine their legitimacy, analysts take a variety of approaches that rely heavily on training and past experience. One method used by analysts to gauge the validity of an event involves examining the set of stations involved in the detection of an event. In particular, leveraging past experience, an analyst can say that an event located in a certain part of the world is expected to be detected by Stations A, B, and C. Implicit in this statement is that such an event would usually not be detected by Stations X, Y, or Z. For some well understood parts of the world, the absence of one or more "expected" stations—or the presence of one or more "unexpected" stations—is correlated with a hypothesized event's legitimacy and to its survival to the event bulletin. The primary objective of this research is to formalize and quantify the difference between the observed set of stations detecting some hypothesized event, versus the expected set of stations historically associated with detecting similar nearby events close in magnitude. This Station Set Residual can be quantified in many ways, some of which are correlated with the analysts' determination of whether or not the event is valid. We propose that this Station Set Residual score can be used to screen out certain classes of "false" events produced by automatic processing with a high degree of confidence, reducing the analyst burden. Moreover, we propose that the visualization of the historically expected distribution of detecting stations can be immediately useful as an analyst aid during their review process.

  13. First observations of transient luminous events in Indian sub-continent

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Singh, Rajesh; Maurya, Ajeet K.; Veenadhari, B.

    2014-01-01

    The article offers information on the initial observations of flashes of lightning discharge observed above thunderstorms. It mentions that the transient luminous events (TLE) are classified on the basis of their geometrical shape and luminosity into Sprites, Halos and Blue Starters. It also focu...

  14. An Observational Analysis of Coaching Behaviors for Career Development Event Teams: A Mixed Methods Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ball, Anna L.; Bowling, Amanda M.; Sharpless, Justin D.

    2016-01-01

    School Based Agricultural Education (SBAE) teachers can use coaching behaviors, along with their agricultural content knowledge to help their Career Development Event (CDE) teams succeed. This mixed methods, collective case study observed three SBAE teachers preparing multiple CDEs throughout the CDE season. The teachers observed had a previous…

  15. Catastrophic event modeling. [lithium thionyl chloride batteries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frank, H. A.

    1981-01-01

    A mathematical model for the catastrophic failures (venting or explosion of the cell) in lithium thionyl chloride batteries is presented. The phenomenology of the various processes leading to cell failure is reviewed.

  16. Abstracting event-based control models for high autonomy systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luh, Cheng-Jye; Zeigler, Bernard P.

    1993-01-01

    A high autonomy system needs many models on which to base control, management, design, and other interventions. These models differ in level of abstraction and in formalism. Concepts and tools are needed to organize the models into a coherent whole. The paper deals with the abstraction processes for systematic derivation of related models for use in event-based control. The multifaceted modeling methodology is briefly reviewed. The morphism concepts needed for application to model abstraction are described. A theory for supporting the construction of DEVS models needed for event-based control is then presented. An implemented morphism on the basis of this theory is also described.

  17. Alternative model for the Great Oxidation Event

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bekker, A.

    2014-12-01

    Transition from the Archean, largely anoxic atmosphere and ocean to the Proterozoic oxidizing surface conditions has been inferred in Zimbabwe from the geochemical and geological evidence as early as 1927. Subsequent studies provided additional support for this interpretation, bracketed the transition between 2.45 and 2.32 Ga, and suggested temporal and cause-and-effect relationship with a series of the early Paleoproterozoic ice ages (including 4 discrete events). Recently recognized transient oxidation events of the Archean add texture to this pattern, but do not change it. The rise of atmospheric oxygen requires a misbalance between oxygen sinks and sources and most attention was focused on sinks. In contrast, change in oxygen supply related to low organic productivity in Archean oceans with limited nutrient contents are considered here. Although carbon isotope values of carbonates and organic carbon indicate substantial relative burial rate of organic carbon during the Archean, most of the earlier buried organic matter at that time was recycled to sediments during continental weathering, implying very low productivity and burial of 'new' organic carbon. Low contents of redox-sensitive elements, such as Mo, Cu, Zn, and V, in Archean seawater could have kept organic productivity and oxygen production at low levels. The GOE was immediately preceded by deposition of giant iron formations, accounting for more than 70% of world iron resources, and worldwide emplacement of a number of LIPs between 2.5 and 2.45 Ga, indicating enhanced delivery of nutrients and redox-sensitive elements to the oceans via submarine hydrothermal processes and continental weathering under CO2- and SO2-rich atmosphere and associated terrestrial acidic runoff. This enhanced emplacement of LIPs has been linked with the growth of continental crust, emergence of the first supercontinent, and mantle overturn at the Archean-Proterozoic boundary. The GOE could have thus been triggered by enhanced

  18. Observation and Interpretation of Energetic Neutral Hydrogen Atoms from the December 5, 2006 Solar Event

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mewaldt, R. A.; Leske, R. A.; Stone, E. C.; Barghouty, A. F.; Shih, A. Y.; von Rosenvinge, T. T.; Labrador, A. W.; Cohen, C. M. S.; Cummings, A. C.; Cummings, A. C.

    2009-01-01

    We report the first observations of energetic neutral atoms (ENAs) from a solar flare/coronal mass ejection event. The observations were made during the December 5, 2006 X9 solar flare, located at E79, by the Low Energy Telescopes (LETs) on the STEREO A and B spacecraft. Within 1-2 hours of the flare onset, both LETs observed a sudden burst of 1.6 to 15 MeV protons arriving hours before the onset of the main solar energetic particle (SEP) event at Earth. More than 70% of these particles arrived from a longitude within +-10 degrees of the Sun. The derived emission profile at the Sun lasted for more than an hour and had a profile remarkably similar to the GOES soft X-ray profile. The observed arrival directions and energy spectrum argue strongly that the particle events atoms that were stripped of their electrons upon entering the LET sensor. To our knowledge, this is the first reported observation of ENA emission from a solar flare/coronal mass ejection. We discuss possible origins for the production of ENAs in solar events, including charge-transfer reactions involving both flare and shock-accelerated protons. Assuming isotropic emission, we find that 2 x 10E28 ENAs escaped from the Sun in the upper hemisphere. Based on the 2.2 MeV gamma-ray emission observed by RHESSI in this event, and using measured and theoretical cross sections, we estimate that 3 x 10E31 ENAs with 1.8 - 5 MeV could be produced by protons accelerated in the flare. CME-driven shock acceleration is also a possible ENA source, but unfortunately there were no CME observations available from this event. Taking into account ENA losses, we conclude that the observed ENAs were most likely produced in the high corona at heliocentric distances 1.6 solar radii.

  19. Intense Particulate Pollution Events Observed with Lidar over the Paris Megalopolis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chazette, Patrick; Royer, Philippe

    2016-06-01

    The great particulate pollution event that affected the Paris Megalopolis in March 2014 was due to long-range transport from the northern-northeastern Europe. Although this phenomenon has appeared as exceptional in the media, this is not an exception and similar events have already been observed by lidar measurements. Here we will briefly describe and illustrate the origin of this intense pollution obviously harmful to health.

  20. Intense Particulate Pollution Events Observed with Lidar over the Paris Megalopolis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chazette Patrick

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The great particulate pollution event that affected the Paris Megalopolis in March 2014 was due to long-range transport from the northern-northeastern Europe. Although this phenomenon has appeared as exceptional in the media, this is not an exception and similar events have already been observed by lidar measurements. Here we will briefly describe and illustrate the origin of this intense pollution obviously harmful to health.

  1. Intense Particulate Pollution Events Observed with Lidar over the Paris Megalopolis

    OpenAIRE

    Chazette Patrick; Royer Philippe

    2016-01-01

    The great particulate pollution event that affected the Paris Megalopolis in March 2014 was due to long-range transport from the northern-northeastern Europe. Although this phenomenon has appeared as exceptional in the media, this is not an exception and similar events have already been observed by lidar measurements. Here we will briefly describe and illustrate the origin of this intense pollution obviously harmful to health.

  2. Remarks on the first two events in the supernova burst observed by Kamiokande II

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rosen, S.P.

    1988-01-01

    We examine the possibility, remote but not totally improbable, that one of the first two supernova events observed in the Kamiokande II detector consists of an electron neutrino scattering from an electron. From arguments of timing we show that this possibility can be realized only for the first event, and that it requires the electron-neutrino mass to be less than 2.5 eV. The occurrence of such an event means that, of the various Mikheyev-Smirnov-Wolfenstein solutions to the solar-neutrino problem, the nonadiabatic one is likely to be correct

  3. Incremental System Modelling in Event-B

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hallerstede, Stefan

    2009-01-01

    demonstrate how this can be applied to cope with the complexity of specifications. On the one hand we benefit from the reduced number of detail to consider at different times. On the other hand we are encouraged to reason about the formal model since the beginning and to rethink it occasionally to capture...

  4. New method to analyze super-family events observed with emulsion chambers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Amenomori, M.

    1997-01-01

    The authors have developed a clustering method to analyze family events observed with emulsion chambers at high mountains. The main purpose of this analysis is to estimate the main production height of individual events, angular spread of gamma-rays in each event and so on. These enable them to investigate hadronic interactions at energies over 10 16 eV inaccessible by the present high-energy accelerators. they examined their clustering method using Monte Carlo events, and found that for the family events whose production height is low (within 2-3 km above the observation point in air), their production heights and lateral spreads are well reproduced. They further applied their method to the super-family events (ΣE γ > 1000 TeV) observed with emulsion chambers at Mt. Kanbala (5500 m above sea-level). The results seem to suggest that particle production with large transverse momentum occurs with considerable frequency even in the fragmentation region in the energy region over 10 16 eV

  5. Discrete event simulation: Modeling simultaneous complications and outcomes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Quik, E.H.; Feenstra, T.L.; Krabbe, P.F.M.

    2012-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: To present an effective and elegant model approach to deal with specific characteristics of complex modeling. METHODS: A discrete event simulation (DES) model with multiple complications and multiple outcomes that each can occur simultaneously was developed. In this DES model parameters,

  6. Integrating Behaviour in Software Models: An Event Coordination Notation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kindler, Ekkart

    2011-01-01

    One of the main problems in model-based software engineering is modelling behaviour in such a way that the behaviour models can be easily integrated with each other, with the structural software models and with pre-existing software. In this paper, we propose an event coordination notation (ECNO)...

  7. Modeling discrete time-to-event data

    CERN Document Server

    Tutz, Gerhard

    2016-01-01

    This book focuses on statistical methods for the analysis of discrete failure times. Failure time analysis is one of the most important fields in statistical research, with applications affecting a wide range of disciplines, in particular, demography, econometrics, epidemiology and clinical research. Although there are a large variety of statistical methods for failure time analysis, many techniques are designed for failure times that are measured on a continuous scale. In empirical studies, however, failure times are often discrete, either because they have been measured in intervals (e.g., quarterly or yearly) or because they have been rounded or grouped. The book covers well-established methods like life-table analysis and discrete hazard regression models, but also introduces state-of-the art techniques for model evaluation, nonparametric estimation and variable selection. Throughout, the methods are illustrated by real life applications, and relationships to survival analysis in continuous time are expla...

  8. Conjugate observations of electromagnetic ion cyclotron waves associated with traveling convection vortex events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Hyomin; Clauer, C. Robert; Gerrard, Andrew J.; Engebretson, Mark J.; Hartinger, Michael D.; Lessard, Marc R.; Matzka, Jürgen; Sibeck, David G.; Singer, Howard J.; Stolle, Claudia; Weimer, Daniel R.; Xu, Zhonghua

    2017-07-01

    We report on simultaneous observations of electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) waves associated with traveling convection vortex (TCV) events caused by transient solar wind dynamic pressure (Pd) impulse events. The Time History of Events and Macroscale Interactions during Substorms (THEMIS) spacecraft located near the magnetopause observed radial fluctuations of the magnetopause, and the GOES spacecraft measured sudden compressions of the magnetosphere in response to sudden increases in Pd. During the transient events, EMIC waves were observed by interhemispheric conjugate ground-based magnetometer arrays as well as the GOES spacecraft. The spectral structures of the waves appear to be well correlated with the fluctuating motion of the magnetopause, showing compression-associated wave generation. In addition, the wave features are remarkably similar in conjugate hemispheres in terms of bandwidth, quasiperiodic wave power modulation, and polarization. Proton precipitation was also observed by the DMSP spacecraft during the wave events, from which the wave source region is estimated to be 72°-74° in magnetic latitude, consistent with the TCV center. The confluence of space-borne and ground instruments including the interhemispheric, high-latitude, fluxgate/induction coil magnetometer array allows us to constrain the EMIC source region while also confirming the relationship between EMIC waves and the TCV current system.

  9. Observation of an optical event horizon in a silicon-on-insulator photonic wire waveguide.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ciret, Charles; Leo, François; Kuyken, Bart; Roelkens, Gunther; Gorza, Simon-Pierre

    2016-01-11

    We report on the first experimental observation of an optical analogue of an event horizon in integrated nanophotonic waveguides, through the reflection of a continuous wave on an intense pulse. The experiment is performed in a dispersion-engineered silicon-on-insulator waveguide. In this medium, solitons do not suffer from Raman induced self-frequency shift as in silica fibers, a feature that is interesting for potential applications of optical event horizons. As shown by simulations, this also allows the observation of multiple reflections at the same time on fundamental solitons ejected by soliton fission.

  10. Observation of hard processes in rapidity gap events in {gamma}p interactions at HERA

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ahmed, T.; Aid, S.; Andreev, V.; Andrieu, B.; Appuhn, R.D.; Arpagaus, M.; Babaev, A.; Baehr, J.; Ban, J.; Baranov, P.; Barrelet, E.; Bartel, W.; Barth, M.; Bassler, U.; Beck, H.P.; Behrend, H.J.; Belousov, A.; Berger, C.; Bergstein, H.; Bernardi, G.; Bernet, R.; Bertrand-Coremans, G.; Besancon, M.; Beyer, R.; Biddulph, P.; Bizot, J.C.; Blobel, V.; Borras, K.; Botterweck, F.; Boudry, V.; Braemer, A.; Brasse, F.; Braunschweig, W.; Brisson, V.; Bruncko, D.; Brune, C.; Buchholz, R.; Buengener, L.; Buerger, J.; Buesser, F.W.; Buniatian, A.; Burke, S.; Buschhorn, G.; Campbell, A.J.; Carli, T.; Charles, F.; Clarke, D.; Clegg, A.B.; Clerbaux, B.; Colombo, M.; Contreras, J.G.; Coughlan, J.A.; Courau, A.; Coutures, C.; Cozzika, G.; Criegee, L.; Cussans, D.G.; Cvach, J.; Dagoret, S.; Dainton, J.B.; Danilov, M.; Dau, W.D.; Daum, K.; David, M.; Deffur, E.; Delcourt, B.; Del Buono, L.; De Roeck, A.; De Wolf, E.A.; Di Nezza, P.; Dollfus, C.; Dowell, J.D.; Dreis, H.B.; Droutskoi, V.; Duboc, J.; Duellmann, D.; Duenger, O.; Duhm, H.; Ebert, J.; Ebert, T.R.; Eckerlin, G.; Efremenko, V.; Egli, S.; Ehrlichmann, H.; Eichenberger, S.; Eichler, R.; Eisele, F.; Eisenhandler, E.; Ellison, R.J.; Elsen, E.; Erdmann, M.; Erdmann, W.; Evrard, E.; Favart, L.; Fedotov, A.; Feeken, D.; Felst, R.; Feltesse, J.; Ferencei, J.; Ferrarotto, F.; Flamm, K.; Fleischer, M.; Flieser, M.; Fluegge, G.; Fomenko, A.; Fominykh, B.; Forbush, M.; Formanek, J.; Foster, J.M.; Franke, G.; Fretwurst, E.; Gabathuler, E.; Gabathuler, K.; Gamerdinger, K.; Garvey, J.; Gayler, J.; Gebauer, M.; Gellrich, A.; Genzel, H.; Gerhards, R.; Goerlach, U.; Goerlich, L.; Gogitidze, N.; Goldberg, M.; Goldner, D.; Gonzalez-Pineiro, B.; Goodall, A.M.; Gorelov, I.; Goritchev, P.; Grab, C.; Graessler, H.; Graessler, R.; Greenshaw, T.; Grindhammer, G.; Gruber, A.; Gruber, C.; Haack, J.; Haidt, D.; Hajduk, L.; Hamon, O.; Hampel, M.; Hanlon, E.M.; Hapke, M.; Haynes, W.J.; Heatherington, J.; Heinzelmann, G.; Henderson, R.C.W.; H1 Collaboration

    1995-02-06

    Events with no hadronic energy flow in a large interval of pseudo-rapidity in the proton direction are observed in photon-proton interactions at an average centre of mass energy left angle {radical}(s{sub {gamma}p}) right angle of 200 GeV. These events are interpreted as photon diffractive dissociation. Evidence for hard scattering in photon diffractive dissociation is demonstrated using inclusive single particle spectra, thrust as a function of transverse energy, and the observation of jet production. The data can be described by a Monte Carlo calculation including hard photon-pomeron scattering. ((orig.))

  11. Multi-spacecraft observations and transport simulations of solar energetic particles for the May 17th 2012 event

    Science.gov (United States)

    Battarbee, M.; Guo, J.; Dalla, S.; Wimmer-Schweingruber, R.; Swalwell, B.; Lawrence, D. J.

    2018-05-01

    Context. The injection, propagation and arrival of solar energetic particles (SEPs) during eruptive solar events is an important and current research topic of heliospheric physics. During the largest solar events, particles may have energies up to a few GeVs and sometimes even trigger ground-level enhancements (GLEs) at Earth. These large SEP events are best investigated through multi-spacecraft observations. Aims: We aim to study the first GLE-event of solar cycle 24, from 17th May 2012, using data from multiple spacecraft (SOHO, GOES, MSL, STEREO-A, STEREO-B and MESSENGER). These spacecraft are located throughout the inner heliosphere, at heliocentric distances between 0.34 and 1.5 astronomical units (au), covering nearly the whole range of heliospheric longitudes. Methods: We present and investigate sub-GeV proton time profiles for the event at several energy channels, obtained via different instruments aboard the above spacecraft. We investigated issues caused by magnetic connectivity, and present results of three-dimensional SEP propagation simulations. We gathered virtual time profiles and perform qualitative and quantitative comparisons with observations, assessed longitudinal injection and transport effects as well as peak intensities. Results: We distinguish different time profile shapes for well-connected and weakly connected observers, and find our onset time analysis to agree with this distinction. At select observers, we identify an additional low-energy component of Energetic Storm Particles (ESPs). Using well-connected observers for normalisation, our simulations are able to accurately recreate both time profile shapes and peak intensities at multiple observer locations. Conclusions: This synergetic approach combining numerical modelling with multi-spacecraft observations is crucial for understanding the propagation of SEPs within the interplanetary magnetic field. Our novel analysis provides valuable proof of the ability to simulate SEP propagation

  12. Observations and Interpretations of Energetic Neutral Hydrogen Atoms from the December 5, 2006 Solar Event

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mewaldt, R. A.; Leske, R. A.; Shih, A. Y.; Stone, E. C.; Barghouty, A. f.; Cohen, C. M. S.; Cummings, A. c.; Labrador, A. W.; vonRosenvinge, T. T.

    2009-01-01

    We discuss recently reported observations of energetic neutral hydrogen atoms (ENAs) from an X9 solar flare/coronal mass ejection event on 5 December 2006, located at E79. The observations were made by the Low Energy Telescopes (LETs) on STEREO A and B. Prior to the arrival of the main solar energetic particle (SEP) event at Earth, both LETs observed a sudden burst of 1.6 to 15 MeV energetic neutral hydrogen atoms produced by either flare or shock-accelerated protons. RHESSI measurements of the 2.2-MeV gamma-ray line provide an estimate of the number of interacting flare-accelerated protons in this event, which leads to an improved estimate of ENA production by flare-accelerated protons. Taking into account ENA losses, we find that the observed ENAs must have been produced in the high corona at heliocentric distances > or equal to 2 solar radii. Although there are no CME images from this event, it is shown that CME-shock-accelerated protons can, in principle, produce a time-history consistent with the observations.

  13. Learning to make things happen: Infants' observational learning of social and physical causal events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waismeyer, Anna; Meltzoff, Andrew N

    2017-10-01

    Infants learn about cause and effect through hands-on experience; however, they also can learn about causality simply from observation. Such observational causal learning is a central mechanism by which infants learn from and about other people. Across three experiments, we tested infants' observational causal learning of both social and physical causal events. Experiment 1 assessed infants' learning of a physical event in the absence of visible spatial contact between the causes and effects. Experiment 2 developed a novel paradigm to assess whether infants could learn about a social causal event from third-party observation of a social interaction between two people. Experiment 3 compared learning of physical and social events when the outcomes occurred probabilistically (happening some, but not all, of the time). Infants demonstrated significant learning in all three experiments, although learning about probabilistic cause-effect relations was most difficult. These findings about infant observational causal learning have implications for children's rapid nonverbal learning about people, things, and their causal relations. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Conceptual Modeling of Events as Information Objects and Change Agents

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bækgaard, Lars

    as a totality of an information object and a change agent. When an event is modeled as an information object it is comparable to an entity that exists only at a specific point in time. It has attributes and can be used for querying and specification of constraints. When an event is modeled as a change agent...... it is comparable to an executable transaction schema. Finally, we briefly compare our approach to object-oriented approaches based on encapsulated objects....

  15. Event-Entity-Relationship Modeling in Data Warehouse Environments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bækgaard, Lars

    We use the event-entity-relationship model (EVER) to illustrate the use of entity-based modeling languages for conceptual schema design in data warehouse environments. EVER is a general-purpose information modeling language that supports the specification of both general schema structures and multi...

  16. Transient Cosmic-ray Events beyond the Heliopause: Interpreting Voyager-1 Observations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kóta, J.; Jokipii, J. R. [Lunar and Planetary Laboratory, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721-0092 (United States)

    2017-04-20

    In 2013 March and 2014 May, Voyager-1 ( V1 ) experienced small but significant increases in the flux of galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) in the hundred MeV/n range. Additionally, V1 also saw episodic depletion of GCR flux around perpendicular pitch angles. We discuss the pitch-angle distribution and the time profiles of these events. In a previous paper, we interpreted the 2013 “bump” as the GCRs remotely sensing a shock that reached the magnetic field line passing through V1 : particles gained energy as they were reflected on the approaching region of the stronger magnetic field of the disturbance. Here, we point out that energy gain is not restricted to reflected particles—GCRs passing through the disturbance also gain energy. The effect should be present in a broad range of pitch angles with the maximum increase of GCR intensity predicted to occur at the critical reflection angle. In this paper, the shock is not step-like, but a gradual increase of the magnetic field strength, B , taking a few days, in agreement with V1 measurements. This smoothens the profile of the predicted bump in the GCR flux. We also address the linear episodic decreases seen around perpendicular pitch angles. These events are interpreted in terms of adiabatic cooling behind the shock due to the slow weakening of B . We present simple numerical model calculations and find that a gradual shock followed by a slow decrease of B , as observed, may account for both the episodic increases and the anisotropic depletion of GCR fluxes.

  17. Observation of hard scattering in photoproduction events with a large rapidity gap at HERA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Derrick, M.; Krakauer, D.; Magill, S.

    1994-11-01

    Events with a large rapidity gap and total transverse energy greater than 5 GeV have been observed in quasi-real photoproduction at HERA with the ZEUS detector. The distribution of these events as a function of the γp centre of mass energy is consistent with diffractive scattering. For total transverse energies above 12 GeV, the hadronic final states show predominantly a two-jet structure with each jet having a transverse energy greater than 4 GeV. For the two-jet events, little energy flow is found outside the jets. This observation is consistent with the hard scattering of a quasi-real photon with a colourless object in the proton. (orig.)

  18. Acceleration of a Static Observer Near the Event Horizon of a Static Isolated Black Hole.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doughty, Noel A.

    1981-01-01

    Compares the magnitude of the proper acceleration of a static observer in a static, isolated, spherically symmetric space-time region with the Newtonian result including the situation in the interior of a perfect-fluid star. This provides a simple physical interpretation of surface gravity and illustrates the global nature of the event horizon.…

  19. Direct AFM observation of an opening event of a DNA cuboid constructed via a prism structure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Endo, Masayuki; Hidaka, Kumi; Sugiyama, Hiroshi

    2011-04-07

    A cuboid structure was constructed using a DNA origami design based on a square prism structure. The structure was characterized by atomic force microscopy (AFM) and dynamic light scattering. The real-time opening event of the cuboid was directly observed by high-speed AFM.

  20. Probability model for worst case solar proton event fluences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xapsos, M.A.; Summers, G.P.; Barth, J.L.; Stassinopoulos, E.G.; Burke, E.A.

    1999-01-01

    The effects that solar proton events have on microelectronics and solar arrays are important considerations for spacecraft in geostationary orbits, polar orbits and on interplanetary missions. A predictive model of worst case solar proton event fluences is presented. It allows the expected worst case event fluence to be calculated for a given confidence level and for periods of time corresponding to space missions. The proton energy range is from >1 to >300 MeV, so that the model is useful for a variety of radiation effects applications. For each proton energy threshold, the maximum entropy principle is used to select the initial distribution of solar proton event fluences. This turns out to be a truncated power law, i.e., a power law for smaller event fluences that smoothly approaches zero at a maximum fluence. The strong agreement of the distribution with satellite data for the last three solar cycles indicates this description captures the essential features of a solar proton event fluence distribution. Extreme value theory is then applied to the initial distribution of events to obtain the model of worst case fluences

  1. Gaseous elemental mercury depletion events observed at Cape Point during 2007–2008

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E.-G. Brunke

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available Gaseous mercury in the marine boundary layer has been measured with a 15 min temporal resolution at the Global Atmosphere Watch station Cape Point since March 2007. The most prominent features of the data until July 2008 are the frequent occurrences of pollution (PEs and depletion events (DEs. Both types of events originate mostly within a short transport distance (up to about 100 km, which are embedded in air masses ranging from marine background to continental. The Hg/CO emission ratios observed during the PEs are within the range reported for biomass burning and industrial/urban emissions. The depletion of gaseous mercury during the DEs is in many cases almost complete and suggests an atmospheric residence time of elemental mercury as short as a few dozens of hours, which is in contrast to the commonly used estimate of approximately 1 year. The DEs observed at Cape Point are not accompanied by simultaneous depletion of ozone which distinguishes them from the halogen driven atmospheric mercury depletion events (AMDEs observed in Polar Regions. Nonetheless, DEs similar to those observed at Cape Point have also been observed at other places in the marine boundary layer. Additional measurements of mercury speciation and of possible mercury oxidants are hence called for to reveal the chemical mechanism of the newly observed DEs and to assess its importance on larger scales.

  2. International Observe the Moon Night: Using Public Outreach Events to Tell Your Story to the Public

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsu, B. C.; International Observe the Moon Night Coordinating Committee

    2011-12-01

    From various interpretations of the lunar "face," early pictograms of the Moon's phases, or to the use of the lunar cycle for festivals or harvests, the Moon has an undeniable influence on human civilization. International Observe the Moon Night (InOMN) capitalizes on the human connection to the Moon by engaging the public in annual lunar observation campaigns that share the excitement of lunar science and exploration. In 2010 (InOMN's inaugural year), over 500,000 people attended events in 53 countries around the world. About 68% of InOMN hosts - astronomy clubs, museums, schools, or other groups - used the resources on the InOMN website (http://observethemoonnight.org). The InOMN website provided supporting materials for InOMN event hosts in the form of downloadable advertising materials, Moon maps, suggestions for hands-on educational activities, and links to lunar science content. InOMN event participants shared their experiences with the world using the Web and social media, event hosts shared their experiences with evaluation data, and amateur astronomers and photographers shared their images of the Moon through the lunar photography contest. The overwhelming response from InOMN in 2010 represents an untapped potential for infusing cutting edge lunar science and exploration into a large-scale public outreach event.

  3. STEREO/SEPT observations of upstream particle events: almost monoenergetic ion beams

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Klassen

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available We present observations of Almost Monoenergetic Ion (AMI events in the energy range of 100–1200 keV detected with the Solar Electron and Proton Telescope (SEPT onboard both STEREO spacecraft. The energy spectrum of AMI events contain 1, 2, or 3 narrow peaks with the relative width at half maximum of 0.1–0.7 and their energy maxima varies for different events from 120 to 1200 keV. These events were detected close to the bow-shock (STEREO-A&B and to the magnetopause at STEREO-B as well as unexpectedly far upstream of the bow-shock and far away from the magnetotail at distances up to 1100 RE (STEREO-B and 1900 RE (STEREO-A. We discuss the origin of AMI events, the connection to the Earth's bow-shock and to the magnetosphere, and the conditions of the interplanetary medium and magnetosphere under which these AMI bursts occur. Evidence that the detected spectral peaks were caused by quasi-monoenergetic beams of protons, helium, and heavier ions are given. Furthermore, we present the spatial distribution of all AMI events from December 2006 until August 2007.

  4. Analyses of Observed and Anticipated Changes in Extreme Climate Events in the Northwest Himalaya

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dharmaveer Singh

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available In this study, past (1970-2005 as well as future long term (2011-2099 trends in various extreme events of temperature and precipitation have been investigated over selected hydro-meteorological stations in the Sutlej river basin. The ensembles of two Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 models: third generation Canadian Coupled Global Climate Model and Hadley Centre Coupled Model have been used for simulation of future daily time series of temperature (maximum and minimum and precipitation under A2 emission scenario. Large scale atmospheric variables of both models and National Centre for Environmental Prediction/National Centre for Atmospheric Research reanalysis data sets have been downscaled using statistical downscaling technique at individual stations. A total number of 25 extreme indices of temperature (14 and precipitation (11 as specified by the Expert Team of the World Meteorological Organization and Climate Variability and Predictability are derived for the past and future periods. Trends in extreme indices are detected over time using the modified Mann-Kendall test method. The stations which have shown either decrease or no change in hot extreme events (i.e., maximum TMax, warm days, warm nights, maximum TMin, tropical nights, summer days and warm spell duration indicators for 1970–2005 and increase in cold extreme events (cool days, cool nights, frost days and cold spell duration indicators are predicted to increase and decrease respectively in the future. In addition, an increase in frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events is also predicted.

  5. Observability and synchronization of neuron models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aguirre, Luis A.; Portes, Leonardo L.; Letellier, Christophe

    2017-10-01

    Observability is the property that enables recovering the state of a dynamical system from a reduced number of measured variables. In high-dimensional systems, it is therefore important to make sure that the variable recorded to perform the analysis conveys good observability of the system dynamics. The observability of a network of neuron models depends nontrivially on the observability of the node dynamics and on the topology of the network. The aim of this paper is twofold. First, to perform a study of observability using four well-known neuron models by computing three different observability coefficients. This not only clarifies observability properties of the models but also shows the limitations of applicability of each type of coefficients in the context of such models. Second, to study the emergence of phase synchronization in networks composed of neuron models. This is done performing multivariate singular spectrum analysis which, to the best of the authors' knowledge, has not been used in the context of networks of neuron models. It is shown that it is possible to detect phase synchronization: (i) without having to measure all the state variables, but only one (that provides greatest observability) from each node and (ii) without having to estimate the phase.

  6. Energetic electron precipitation characteristics observed from Antarctica during a flux dropout event

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clilverd, Mark A.; Cobbett, Neil; Rodger, Craig J.; Brundell, James B.; Denton, Michael H.; Hartley, David P.; Rodriguez, Juan V.; Danskin, Donald; Raita, Tero; Spanswick, Emma L.

    2013-11-01

    from two autonomous VLF radio receiver systems installed in a remote region of the Antarctic in 2012 is used to take advantage of the juxtaposition of the L = 4.6 contour, and the Hawaii-Halley, Antarctica, great circle path as it passes over thick Antarctic ice shelf. The ice sheet conductivity leads to high sensitivity to changing D region conditions, and the quasi constant L shell highlights outer radiation belt processes. The ground-based instruments observed several energetic electron precipitation events over a moderately active 24 h period, during which the outer radiation belt electron flux declined at most energies and subsequently recovered. Combining the ground-based data with low and geosynchronous orbiting satellite observations on 27 February 2012, different driving mechanisms were observed for three precipitation events with clear signatures in phase space density and electron anisotropy. Comparison between flux measurements made by Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellites (POES) in low Earth orbit and by the Antarctic instrumentation provides evidence of different cases of weak and strong diffusion into the bounce loss cone, helping to understand the physical mechanisms controlling the precipitation of energetic electrons into the atmosphere. Strong diffusion events occurred as the bounce loss cone. Two events had a factor of about 3 to 10 times more >30 keV flux than was reported by POES, more consistent with strong diffusion conditions.

  7. The comparison of SRs' variation affected by solar events observed in America and in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, H.; Williams, E.

    2017-12-01

    Schumann Resonances(SRs) are the electromagnetic resonance wave propagating in the earth-ionosphere cavity. Its characteristic of propagation are modified by the variation of ionosphere. So SRs can be the tools of monitoring the ionosphere which is often perturbed by solar events, x-ray emission and some other space-weather events (Roldugin et.al., 2004, De et al., 2010; Satori et.al., 2015). In present work, the amplitude and intrinsic frequencies of SRs observed at RID station in America and YSH station in China are compared. The variation of SRs during the solar flare on Feb. 15, 2011 are analyzed. Two-Dimensional Telegraph Equation(TDTE) method is used to simulate the perturbation of ionosphere by solar proton events. From the simulation and observation, the asymmetric construction of ionoshphere which is perturbed by the solar event will affect the amplitudes and frequencies of SRs. Due to the interfere influence of forward and backward propagation of electromagnetic field, the SR amplitude on different station will present different variation. The distance among the lightning source, observer and perturbed area will produce the different variation of amplitude and frequency for different station' SR.

  8. A coupled classification - evolutionary optimization model for contamination event detection in water distribution systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oliker, Nurit; Ostfeld, Avi

    2014-03-15

    This study describes a decision support system, alerts for contamination events in water distribution systems. The developed model comprises a weighted support vector machine (SVM) for the detection of outliers, and a following sequence analysis for the classification of contamination events. The contribution of this study is an improvement of contamination events detection ability and a multi-dimensional analysis of the data, differing from the parallel one-dimensional analysis conducted so far. The multivariate analysis examines the relationships between water quality parameters and detects changes in their mutual patterns. The weights of the SVM model accomplish two goals: blurring the difference between sizes of the two classes' data sets (as there are much more normal/regular than event time measurements), and adhering the time factor attribute by a time decay coefficient, ascribing higher importance to recent observations when classifying a time step measurement. All model parameters were determined by data driven optimization so the calibration of the model was completely autonomic. The model was trained and tested on a real water distribution system (WDS) data set with randomly simulated events superimposed on the original measurements. The model is prominent in its ability to detect events that were only partly expressed in the data (i.e., affecting only some of the measured parameters). The model showed high accuracy and better detection ability as compared to previous modeling attempts of contamination event detection. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Analysis of mutual events of Galilean satellites observed from VBO during 2014-2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vasundhara, R.; Selvakumar, G.; Anbazhagan, P.

    2017-06-01

    Results of analysis of 23 events of the 2014-2015 mutual event series from the Vainu Bappu Observatory are presented. Our intensity distribution model for the eclipsed/occulted satellite is based on the criterion that it simulates a rotational light curve that matches the ground-based light curve. Dichotomy in the scattering characteristics of the leading and trailing sides explains the basic shape of the rotational light curves of Europa, Ganymede and Callisto. In the case of Io, the albedo map (courtesy United States Geological Survey) along with global values of scattering parameters works well. Mean values of residuals in (O - C) along and perpendicular to the track are found to be -3.3 and -3.4 mas, respectively, compared to 'L2' theory for the seven 2E1/2O1 events. The corresponding rms values are 8.7 and 7.8 mas, respectively. For the five 1E3/1O3 events, the along and perpendicular to the track mean residuals are 5.6 and 3.2 mas, respectively. The corresponding rms residuals are 6.8 and 10.5 mas, respectively. We compare the results using the chosen model (Model 1) with a uniform but limb-darkened disc (Model 2). The residuals with Model 2 of the 2E1/2O1 and 1E3/1O3 events indicate a bias along the satellite track. The extent and direction of bias are consistent with the shift of the light centre from the geometric centre. Results using Model 1, which intrinsically takes into account the intensity distribution, show no such bias.

  10. Observations and Modeling of Merging Galaxy Clusters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Golovich, Nathan Ryan

    Context: Galaxy clusters grow hierarchically with continuous accretion bookended by major merging events that release immense gravitational potential energy (as much as ˜1065 erg). This energy creates an environment for rich astrophysics. Precise measurements of the dark matter halo, intracluster medium, and galaxy population have resulted in a number of important results including dark matter constraints and explanations of the generation of cosmic rays. However, since the timescale of major mergers (˜several Gyr) relegates observations of individual systems to mere snapshots, these results are difficult to understand under a consistent dynamical framework. While computationally expensive simulations are vital in this regard, the vastness of parameter space has necessitated simulations of idealized mergers that are unlikely to capture the full richness. Merger speeds, geometries, and timescales each have a profound consequential effect, but even these simple dynamical properties of the mergers are often poorly understood. A method to identify and constrain the best systems for probing the rich astrophysics of merging clusters is needed. Such a method could then be utilized to prioritize observational follow up and best inform proper exploration of dynamical phase space. Task: In order to identify and model a large number of systems, in this dissertation, we compile an ensemble of major mergers each containing radio relics. We then complete a pan-chromatic study of these 29 systems including wide field optical photometry, targeted optical spectroscopy of member galaxies, radio, and X-ray observations. We use the optical observations to model the galaxy substructure and estimate line of sight motion. In conjunction with the radio and X-ray data, these substructure models helped elucidate the most likely merger scenario for each system and further constrain the dynamical properties of each system. We demonstrate the power of this technique through detailed analyses

  11. Characterizing Drought Events from a Hydrological Model Ensemble

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Katie; Parry, Simon; Prudhomme, Christel; Hannaford, Jamie; Tanguy, Maliko; Barker, Lucy; Svensson, Cecilia

    2017-04-01

    Hydrological droughts are a slow onset natural hazard that can affect large areas. Within the United Kingdom there have been eight major drought events over the last 50 years, with several events acting at the continental scale, and covering the entire nation. Many of these events have lasted several years and had significant impacts on agriculture, the environment and the economy. Generally in the UK, due to a northwest-southeast gradient in rainfall and relief, as well as varying underlying geology, droughts tend to be most severe in the southeast, which can threaten water supplies to the capital in London. With the impacts of climate change likely to increase the severity and duration of drought events worldwide, it is crucial that we gain an understanding of the characteristics of some of the longer and more extreme droughts of the 19th and 20th centuries, so we may utilize this information in planning for the future. Hydrological models are essential both for reconstructing such events that predate streamflow records, and for use in drought forecasting. However, whilst the uncertainties involved in modelling hydrological extremes on the flooding end of the flow regime have been studied in depth over the past few decades, the uncertainties in simulating droughts and low flow events have not yet received such rigorous academic attention. The "Cascade of Uncertainty" approach has been applied to explore uncertainty and coherence across simulations of notable drought events from the past 50 years using the airGR family of daily lumped catchment models. Parameter uncertainty has been addressed using a Latin Hypercube sampled experiment of 500,000 parameter sets per model (GR4J, GR5J and GR6J), over more than 200 catchments across the UK. The best performing model parameterisations, determined using a multi-objective function approach, have then been taken forward for use in the assessment of the impact of model parameters and model structure on drought event

  12. Powering stochastic reliability models by discrete event simulation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kozine, Igor; Wang, Xiaoyun

    2012-01-01

    it difficult to find a solution to the problem. The power of modern computers and recent developments in discrete-event simulation (DES) software enable to diminish some of the drawbacks of stochastic models. In this paper we describe the insights we have gained based on using both Markov and DES models...

  13. Observation of an event of pair photoproduction of charmed anti D0D0-mesons

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Adamovich, M.I.; Aleksandrov, Yu.A.; Bolta, J.M.; Bravo, L.; Cartacci, A.M.; Chernyavskii, M.M.; Conforto, B.; Conti, A.; Crosetti, G.; Dagliana, M.G.

    1981-12-01

    An event will be described which has been observed in an experiment on charmed particle production by labelled photons from the supersynchrotron of CERN. This event has been recorded simultaneously in nuclear photoemulsion and by the magnetic spectrometer Omega-prim. It has been interpreted as the first event of pair photoproduction of charmed neutral D 0 D 0 -mesons. For anti D 0 → K + π - π - π + , an intrinsic decay time of tau (anti D 0 ) = (0.14 +- 0.01) x 10 -13 sec has been obtained and for D 0 → anti K 0 tau - e + ν, two solutions have been obtained: tau 1 (D 0 ) = (3.4 +- 0.3) x 10 -13 sec and tau 2 (D 0 ) = (7.5 +- 0.3) x 10 -13 sec. (orig.)

  14. MMS Observations of the Evolution of Ion-Scale Flux Transfer Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, C.; Russell, C. T.; Strangeway, R. J.; Paterson, W.; Petrinec, S.; Zhou, M.; Anderson, B. J.; Baumjohann, W.; Bromund, K. R.; Chutter, M.; Fischer, D.; Gershman, D. J.; Giles, B. L.; Le, G.; Nakamura, R.; Plaschke, F.; Slavin, J. A.; Torbert, R. B.

    2017-12-01

    Flux transfer events are key processes in the solar wind-magnetosphere interaction. Previously, the observed flux transfer events have had scale sizes of 10,000 km radius in the cross-section and connect about 2 MWb magnetic flux from solar wind to the terrestrial magnetosphere. Recently, from the high-temporal resolution MMS magnetic field data, many ion-scale FTEs have been found. These FTEs contains only about 2 kWb magnetic flux and are believed to be in an early stage of FTE evolution. With the help of the well-calibrated MMS data, we are also able to determine the velocity profile and forces within the FTE events. We find that some ion-scale FTEs are expanding as we expect, but there are also contracting FTEs. We examine the differences between the two classes of FTEs and their differences with the larger previously studied class of FTE.

  15. A simple conceptual model of abrupt glacial climate events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Braun

    2007-11-01

    Full Text Available Here we use a very simple conceptual model in an attempt to reduce essential parts of the complex nonlinearity of abrupt glacial climate changes (the so-called Dansgaard-Oeschger events to a few simple principles, namely (i the existence of two different climate states, (ii a threshold process and (iii an overshooting in the stability of the system at the start and the end of the events, which is followed by a millennial-scale relaxation. By comparison with a so-called Earth system model of intermediate complexity (CLIMBER-2, in which the events represent oscillations between two climate states corresponding to two fundamentally different modes of deep-water formation in the North Atlantic, we demonstrate that the conceptual model captures fundamental aspects of the nonlinearity of the events in that model. We use the conceptual model in order to reproduce and reanalyse nonlinear resonance mechanisms that were already suggested in order to explain the characteristic time scale of Dansgaard-Oeschger events. In doing so we identify a new form of stochastic resonance (i.e. an overshooting stochastic resonance and provide the first explicitly reported manifestation of ghost resonance in a geosystem, i.e. of a mechanism which could be relevant for other systems with thresholds and with multiple states of operation. Our work enables us to explicitly simulate realistic probability measures of Dansgaard-Oeschger events (e.g. waiting time distributions, which are a prerequisite for statistical analyses on the regularity of the events by means of Monte-Carlo simulations. We thus think that our study is an important advance in order to develop more adequate methods to test the statistical significance and the origin of the proposed glacial 1470-year climate cycle.

  16. Dwarf novae in outburst: modelling the observations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pringle, J.E.; Verbunt, F.

    1986-01-01

    Time-dependent accretion-disc models are constructed and used to calculate theoretical spectra in order to try to fit the ultraviolet and optical observations of outbursts of the two dwarf novae VW Hydri and CN Orionis. It is found that the behaviour on the rise to outburst is the strongest discriminator between theoretical models. The mass-transfer burst model is able to fit the spectral behaviour for both objects. The disc-instability model is unable to fit the rise to outburst in VW Hydri, and gives a poor fit to the observations of CN Orionis. (author)

  17. Erectile dysfunction and cardiovascular events in diabetic men: a meta-analysis of observational studies.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tomohide Yamada

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Several studies have shown that erectile dysfunction (ED influences the risk of cardiovascular events (CV events. However, a meta-analysis of the overall risk of CV events associated with ED in patients with diabetes has not been performed. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We searched MEDLINE and the Cochrane Library for pertinent articles (including references published between 1951 and April 22, 2012. English language reports of original observational cohort studies and cross-sectional studies were included. Pooled effect estimates were obtained by random effects meta-analysis. A total of 3,791 CV events were reported in 3 cohort studies and 9 cross-sectional studies (covering 22,586 subjects. Across the cohort studies, the overall odds ratio (OR of diabetic men with ED versus those without ED was 1.74 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.34-2.27; P0.05. Moreover, meta-regression analysis found no relationship between the method used to assess ED (questionnaire or interview, mean age, mean hemoglobin A(1c, mean body mass index, or mean duration of diabetes and the risk of CV events or CHD. In the cross-sectional studies, the OR of diabetic men with ED versus those without ED was 3.39 (95% CI: 2.58-4.44; P<0.001 for CV events (N = 9, 3.43 (95% CI: 2.46-4.77; P<0.001 for CHD (N = 7, and 2.63 (95% CI: 1.41-4.91; P = 0.002 for peripheral vascular disease (N = 5. CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE: ED was associated with an increased risk of CV events in diabetic patients. Prevention and early detection of cardiovascular disease are important in the management of diabetes, especially in view of the rapid increase in its prevalence.

  18. Modelling Inland Flood Events for Hazard Maps in Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghosh, S.; Nzerem, K.; Sassi, M.; Hilberts, A.; Assteerawatt, A.; Tillmanns, S.; Mathur, P.; Mitas, C.; Rafique, F.

    2015-12-01

    Taiwan experiences significant inland flooding, driven by torrential rainfall from plum rain storms and typhoons during summer and fall. From last 13 to 16 years data, 3,000 buildings were damaged by such floods annually with a loss US$0.41 billion (Water Resources Agency). This long, narrow island nation with mostly hilly/mountainous topography is located at tropical-subtropical zone with annual average typhoon-hit-frequency of 3-4 (Central Weather Bureau) and annual average precipitation of 2502mm (WRA) - 2.5 times of the world's average. Spatial and temporal distributions of countrywide precipitation are uneven, with very high local extreme rainfall intensities. Annual average precipitation is 3000-5000mm in the mountainous regions, 78% of it falls in May-October, and the 1-hour to 3-day maximum rainfall are about 85 to 93% of the world records (WRA). Rivers in Taiwan are short with small upstream areas and high runoff coefficients of watersheds. These rivers have the steepest slopes, the shortest response time with rapid flows, and the largest peak flows as well as specific flood peak discharge (WRA) in the world. RMS has recently developed a countrywide inland flood model for Taiwan, producing hazard return period maps at 1arcsec grid resolution. These can be the basis for evaluating and managing flood risk, its economic impacts, and insured flood losses. The model is initiated with sub-daily historical meteorological forcings and calibrated to daily discharge observations at about 50 river gauges over the period 2003-2013. Simulations of hydrologic processes, via rainfall-runoff and routing models, are subsequently performed based on a 10000 year set of stochastic forcing. The rainfall-runoff model is physically based continuous, semi-distributed model for catchment hydrology. The 1-D wave propagation hydraulic model considers catchment runoff in routing and describes large-scale transport processes along the river. It also accounts for reservoir storage

  19. Multiple flux rope events at the magnetopause observations by TC-1 on 18 March 2004

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. J. Xiao

    2005-11-01

    Full Text Available From 23:10 to 23:50 UT on 18 March 2004, the Double Star TC-1 spacecraft detected eight flux ropes at the outbound crossing of the southern dawnside magnetopause. A notable guide field existed inside all ropes. In the mean time the Cluster spacecraft were staying in the magnetosheath and found that the events occurred under the condition of southward IMF Bz and dominant negative IMF By. There are six ropes that appeared quasi-periodically, with a repeated period being approximately 1-4 min. The last flux rope lasts for a longer time interval with a larger peak in the BN variations; it can thus be referred to as a typical FTE. The 18 March 2004 event is quite similar to the multiple flux rope event observed by Cluster on 26 January 2001 at the northern duskside high-latitude magnetopause. A detailed comparison of these two events is made in the paper. Preliminary studies imply that both of these multiple flux ropes events seem to be produced by component reconnection at the dayside low-latitude magnetopause.

  20. Observations and Modeling of Atmospheric Radiance Structure

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Wintersteiner, Peter

    2001-01-01

    The overall purpose of the work that we have undertaken is to provide new capabilities for observing and modeling structured radiance in the atmosphere, particularly the non-LTE regions of the atmosphere...

  1. Model for behavior observation training programs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berghausen, P.E. Jr.

    1987-01-01

    Continued behavior observation is mandated by ANSI/ANS 3.3. This paper presents a model for behavior observation training that is in accordance with this standard and the recommendations contained in US NRC publications. The model includes seventeen major topics or activities. Ten of these are discussed: Pretesting of supervisor's knowledge of behavior observation requirements, explanation of the goals of behavior observation programs, why behavior observation training programs are needed (legal and psychological issues), early indicators of emotional instability, use of videotaped interviews to demonstrate significant psychopathology, practice recording behaviors, what to do when unusual behaviors are observed, supervisor rationalizations for noncompliance, when to be especially vigilant, and prevention of emotional instability

  2. Data-Model and Inter-Model Comparisons of the GEM Outflow Events Using the Space Weather Modeling Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Welling, D. T.; Eccles, J. V.; Barakat, A. R.; Kistler, L. M.; Haaland, S.; Schunk, R. W.; Chappell, C. R.

    2015-12-01

    Two storm periods were selected by the Geospace Environment Modeling Ionospheric Outflow focus group for community collaborative study because of its high magnetospheric activity and extensive data coverage: the September 27 - October 4, 2002 corotating interaction region event and the October 22 - 29 coronal mass ejection event. During both events, the FAST, Polar, Cluster, and other missions made key observations, creating prime periods for data-model comparison. The GEM community has come together to simulate this period using many different methods in order to evaluate models, compare results, and expand our knowledge of ionospheric outflow and its effects on global dynamics. This paper presents Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) simulations of these important periods compared against observations from the Polar TIDE, Cluster CODIF and EFW instruments. Emphasis will be given to the second event. Density and velocity of oxygen and hydrogen throughout the lobes, plasma sheet, and inner magnetosphere will be the focus of these comparisons. For these simulations, the SWMF couples the multifluid version of BATS-R-US MHD to a variety of ionospheric outflow models of varying complexity. The simplest is outflow arising from constant MHD inner boundary conditions. Two first-principles-based models are also leveraged: the Polar Wind Outflow Model (PWOM), a fluid treatment of outflow dynamics, and the Generalized Polar Wind (GPW) model, which combines fluid and particle-in-cell approaches. Each model is capable of capturing a different set of energization mechanisms, yielding different outflow results. The data-model comparisons will illustrate how well each approach captures reality and which energization mechanisms are most important. Inter-model comparisons will illustrate how the different outflow specifications affect the magnetosphere. Specifically, it is found that the GPW provides increased heavy ion outflow over a broader spatial range than the alternative

  3. Derivation of Event-B Models from OWL Ontologies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alkhammash Eman H.

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The derivation of formal specifications from large and complex requirements is a key challenge in systems engineering. In this paper we present an approach that aims to address this challenge by building formal models from OWL ontologies. An ontology is used in the field of knowledge representation to capture a clear view of the domain and to produce a concise and unambiguous set of domain requirements. We harness the power of ontologies to handle inconsistency of domain requirements and produce clear, concise and unambiguous set of domain requirements for Event-B modelling. The proposed approach works by generating Attempto Controlled English (ACE from the OWL ontology and then maps the ACE requirements to develop Event-B models. ACE is a subset of English that can be unambiguously translated into first-order logic. There is an injective mapping between OWL ontology and a subset of ACE. ACE is a suitable interlingua for producing the mapping between OWL and Event-B models for many reasons. Firstly, ACE is easy to learn and understand, it hides the math of OWL and would be natural to use by everybody. Secondly ACE has a parser that converts ACE texts into Discourse Representation Structures (DRS. Finally, ACE can be extended to target a richer syntactic subset of Event-B which ultimately would facilitate the translation of ACE requirements to Event-B.

  4. Discovering block-structured process models from event logs containing infrequent behaviour

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Leemans, S.J.J.; Fahland, D.; Aalst, van der W.M.P.; Lohmann, N.; Song, M.; Wohed, P.

    2014-01-01

    Given an event log describing observed behaviour, process discovery aims to find a process model that ‘best’ describes this behaviour. A large variety of process discovery algorithms has been proposed. However, no existing algorithm returns a sound model in all cases (free of deadlocks and other

  5. Event-based model diagnosis of rainfall-runoff model structures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stanzel, P.

    2012-01-01

    The objective of this research is a comparative evaluation of different rainfall-runoff model structures. Comparative model diagnostics facilitate the assessment of strengths and weaknesses of each model. The application of multiple models allows an analysis of simulation uncertainties arising from the selection of model structure, as compared with effects of uncertain parameters and precipitation input. Four different model structures, including conceptual and physically based approaches, are compared. In addition to runoff simulations, results for soil moisture and the runoff components of overland flow, interflow and base flow are analysed. Catchment runoff is simulated satisfactorily by all four model structures and shows only minor differences. Systematic deviations from runoff observations provide insight into model structural deficiencies. While physically based model structures capture some single runoff events better, they do not generally outperform conceptual model structures. Contributions to uncertainty in runoff simulations stemming from the choice of model structure show similar dimensions to those arising from parameter selection and the representation of precipitation input. Variations in precipitation mainly affect the general level and peaks of runoff, while different model structures lead to different simulated runoff dynamics. Large differences between the four analysed models are detected for simulations of soil moisture and, even more pronounced, runoff components. Soil moisture changes are more dynamical in the physically based model structures, which is in better agreement with observations. Streamflow contributions of overland flow are considerably lower in these models than in the more conceptual approaches. Observations of runoff components are rarely made and are not available in this study, but are shown to have high potential for an effective selection of appropriate model structures (author) [de

  6. Fγ: A new observable for photon-hadron discrimination in hybrid air shower events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niechciol, M.; Risse, M.; Ruehl, P.; Settimo, M.; Younk, P. W.; Yushkov, A.

    2018-01-01

    To search for ultra-high-energy photons in primary cosmic rays, air shower observables are needed that allow a good separation between primary photons and primary hadrons. We present a new observable, Fγ, which can be extracted from ground-array data in hybrid events, where simultaneous measurements of the longitudinal and the lateral shower profile are performed. The observable is based on a template fit to the lateral distribution measured by the ground array with the template taking into account the complementary information from the measurement of the longitudinal profile, i.e. the primary energy and the geometry of the shower. Fγ shows a very good photon-hadron separation, which is even superior to the separation given by the well-known Xmax observable (the atmospheric depth of the shower maximum). At energies around 1 EeV (10 EeV), Fγ provides a background rejection better than 97.8 % (99.9 %) at a signal efficiency of 50 %. Advantages of the observable Fγ are its technical stability with respect to irregularities in the ground array (i.e. missing or temporarily non-operating stations) and that it can be applied over the full energy range accessible to the air shower detector, down to its threshold energy. Furthermore, Fγ complements nicely to Xmax such that both observables can well be combined to achieve an even better discrimination power, exploiting the rich information available in hybrid events.

  7. Observation of events with a large rapidity gap in deep inelastic scattering at HERA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Derrick, M.; Krakauer, D.; Magill, S.

    1993-07-01

    In deep inelastic, neutral current scattering of electrons and protons at √s=296 GeV, we observe in the ZEUS detector events with a large rapidity gap in the hadronic final state. They occur in the region of small Bjorken x and are observed up to Q 2 of 100 GeV 2 . They account for about 5% of the events with Q 2 ≥10 GeV 2 . Their general properties are inconsistent with the dominant mechanism of deep inelastic scattering, where color is transferred between the scattered quark and the proton remnant, and suggest that the underlying production mechanism is the diffractive dissociation of the virtual photon. (orig.)

  8. On the feasibility of using satellite gravity observations for detecting large-scale solid mass transfer events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peidou, Athina C.; Fotopoulos, Georgia; Pagiatakis, Spiros

    2017-10-01

    The main focus of this paper is to assess the feasibility of utilizing dedicated satellite gravity missions in order to detect large-scale solid mass transfer events (e.g. landslides). Specifically, a sensitivity analysis of Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) gravity field solutions in conjunction with simulated case studies is employed to predict gravity changes due to past subaerial and submarine mass transfer events, namely the Agulhas slump in southeastern Africa and the Heart Mountain Landslide in northwestern Wyoming. The detectability of these events is evaluated by taking into account the expected noise level in the GRACE gravity field solutions and simulating their impact on the gravity field through forward modelling of the mass transfer. The spectral content of the estimated gravity changes induced by a simulated large-scale landslide event is estimated for the known spatial resolution of the GRACE observations using wavelet multiresolution analysis. The results indicate that both the Agulhas slump and the Heart Mountain Landslide could have been detected by GRACE, resulting in {\\vert }0.4{\\vert } and {\\vert }0.18{\\vert } mGal change on GRACE solutions, respectively. The suggested methodology is further extended to the case studies of the submarine landslide in Tohoku, Japan, and the Grand Banks landslide in Newfoundland, Canada. The detectability of these events using GRACE solutions is assessed through their impact on the gravity field.

  9. Latitudinal extent of the January 2005 solar proton event in the Northern Hemisphere from satellite observations of hydroxyl

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. T. Verronen

    2007-11-01

    Full Text Available We utilise hydroxyl observations from the MLS/Aura satellite instrument to study the latitudinal extent of particle forcing in the northern polar region during the January 2005 solar proton event. MLS is the first satellite instrument to observe HOx changes during such an event. We also predict the hydroxyl changes with respect to the magnetic latitude by the Sodankylä Ion and Neutral Chemistry model, estimating the variable magnetic cutoff energies for protons using a parameterisation based on magnetosphere modelling and the planetary magnetic index Kp. In the middle and lower mesosphere, HOx species are good indicators of the changes in the atmosphere during solar proton events, because they respond rapidly to both increases and decreases in proton forcing. Also, atmospheric transport has a negligible effect on HOx because of its short chemical lifetime. The observations indicate the boundary of the proton forcing and a transition region, from none to the "full" effect, which ranges from about 57 to 64 degrees of magnetic latitude. When saturating the rigidity cutoff Kp at 6 in the model, as suggested by earlier studies using observations of cosmic radio noise absorption, the equatorward boundary of the transition region is offset by ≈2 degrees polewards compared with the data, thus the latitudinal extent of the proton forcing in the atmosphere is underestimated. However, the model predictions are in reasonable agreement with the MLS measurements when the Kp index is allowed to vary within its nominal range, i.e., from 1 to 9 in the cutoff calculation.

  10. Space Weather at Mars: MAVEN and MSL/RAD Observations of CME and SEP Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, C. O.; Ehresmann, B.; Lillis, R. J.; Dunn, P.; Rahmati, A.; Larson, D. E.; Guo, J.; Zeitlin, C.; Luhmann, J. G.; Halekas, J. S.; Espley, J. R.; Thiemann, E.; Hassler, D.

    2017-12-01

    While MAVEN have been observing the space weather conditions driven by ICMEs and SEPs in orbit around Mars, MSL/RAD have been measuring the surface radiation environment due to E > 150 MeV/nuc SEPs and the higher-energy galactic cosmic rays. The suite of MAVEN instruments measuring the particles (SEP), plasma (SWIA) and fields (MAG) information provides detailed local space weather information regarding the solar activity-related fluctuations in the measured surface dose rates. At the same time, the related enhancements in the RAD surface dose rates indicate the degree to which the SEPs affect the lower atmosphere and surface. We will present an overview of the MAVEN observations together with the MSL/RAD measurements and focus our discussion on a number of space weather events driven by CMEs and SEPs. During the March 2015 solar storm period, a succession of CMEs produced intense SEP proton fluxes that were detected by MAVEN/SEP in the 20 keV to 6 MeV detected energy channels. At higher energies, MAVEN/SEP record `FTO' SEP events that were triggered by > 13 MeV energetic protons passing through all three silicon detector layers (Front, Thick, and Open). Using the detector response matrix for an FTO event (incident energy vs detected energy), the minimum incident energy of the SEP protons observed in March 2015 was inferred to be > 40 MeV. The lack of any notable enhancements in the surface dose rate by MSL/RAD suggests that the highest incident energies of the SEP protons were 150 MeV SEP protons impacted the Martian atmosphere and surface. The source of the October 2015 SEP event was probably the CME that erupted near the solar west limb with respect to the Sun-Mars line. As part of the discussion, we will also show solar-heliospheric observations from near-Earth assets together with WSA-Enlil-cone results for some global heliospheric context.

  11. Modeling flood events for long-term stability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schruben, T.; Portillo, R.

    1985-01-01

    The primary objective for the disposal of uranium mill tailings in the Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project is isolation and stabilization to prevent their misuse by man and dispersal by natural forces such as wind, rain, and flood waters (40 CFR-192). Stabilization of sites that are located in or near flood plains presents unique problems in design for long-term performance. This paper discusses the process involved with the selection and hydrologic modeling of the design flood event; and hydraulic modeling with geomorphic considerations of the design flood event. The Gunnison, Colorado, and Riverton, Wyoming, sites will be used as examples in describing the process

  12. LEP Events, TLE's, and Q-bursts observed from the Antarctic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, R. C.; Kim, D.; Flint, Q. A.

    2017-12-01

    ELF/VLF measurements at Palmer Station, McMurdo Station, and South Pole Station, Antarctica are used to detect lightning-generated ELF/VLF radio atmospherics from around the globe and to remote sense ionospheric disturbances in the Southern hemisphere. The Antarctic ELF/VLF receivers complement a Northern hemisphere ELF/VLF monitoring array. In this paper, we present our latest observational results, including a full statistical analysis of conjugate observations of lightning-induced electron precipitation and radio atmospherics associated specifically with the transient luminous events known as gigantic jets and sprites.

  13. Fermi GBM Observations of LIGO Gravitational-Wave Event Gw150914

    Science.gov (United States)

    Connaughton, V.; Burns, E.; Goldstein, A.; Blackburn, L.; Briggs, M. S.; Zhang, B.-B.; Camp, J.; Christensen, N.; Hui, C. M.; Jenke, P.; hide

    2016-01-01

    With an instantaneous view of 70% of the sky, the Fermi Gamma-ray Burst Monitor (GBM) is an excellent partner in the search for electromagnetic counterparts to gravitational-wave (GW) events. GBM observations at the time of the Laser Interferometer Gravitational-wave Observatory (LIGO) event GW150914 reveal the presence of a weak transient above 50 keV, 0.4 s after the GW event, with a false-alarm probability of 0.0022 (2.9(sigma)). This weak transient lasting 1 s was not detected by any other instrument and does not appear to be connected with other previously known astrophysical, solar, terrestrial, or magnetospheric activity. Its localization is ill-constrained but consistent with the direction of GW150914. The duration and spectrum of the transient event are consistent with a weak short gamma-ray burst (GRB) arriving at a large angle to the direction in which Fermi was pointing where the GBM detector response is not optimal. If the GBM transient is associated with GW150914, then this electromagnetic signal from a stellar mass black hole binary merger is unexpected. We calculate a luminosity in hard X-ray emission between 1 keV and 10 MeV of 1.8(sup +1.5, sub -1.0) x 10(exp 49) erg/s. Future joint observations of GW events by LIGO/Virgo and Fermi GBM could reveal whether the weak transient reported here is a plausible counterpart to GW150914 or a chance coincidence, and will further probe the connection between compact binary mergers and short GRBs.

  14. A survey of flux transfer events observed in the dayside magnetopause

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silveira, M. D.; Sibeck, D. G.; Lee, S. H.; Gonzalez, W.; Koga, D.

    2017-12-01

    Flux transfer events (FTE) have been interpreted to be results from transient magnetic reconnection and can be observed in the vicinity of the Earth's magnetopause, as well in other planets. FTE acts as a flux tube connecting the magnetosheath to the magnetosphere allowing the transference of particles, energy and momentum in both sides magnetopause. Their main signatures in satellite data are bipolar variation in the magnetic field component normal to the magnetopause, centered in an enhanced magnetic field strength. Other signatures such as pressure imbalance, bulk flow jets, and particle anisotropy distribution can be observed inside the those structures. We surveyed FTEs observed by MMS on the vicinity of the magnetopause (from x = 0 to 13Re and y = -12 to 12Re). Taking advantage of the MMS tetrahedron configuration we will employed timing analysis to determine the FTEs direction of motion and scale lengths. We will present information about occurrence related with IMF clock angle and other parameters, amplitude of the perturbations induced by the FTEs in the environment magnetic field and plasma; characteristic time and structure scale size. Using data from ACE, Wind and Artemis we can evaluate which is the best solar wind monitor for each FTE observed and then employ the appropriated lag time corresponding to FTE location and magnetic field orientation. The objective is to investigate the mechanisms of generation of FTEs comparing characteristics of the events observed on the dayside region and on the magnetopause flanks determining the motion and speed of FTEs.

  15. Utility of High Temporal Resolution Observations for Heat Health Event Characterization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palecki, M. A.

    2017-12-01

    Many heat health watch systems produce a binary on/off warning when conditions are predicted to exceed a given threshold during a day. Days with warnings and their mortality/morbidity statistics are analyzed relative to days not warned to determine the impacts of the event on human health, the effectiveness of warnings, and other statistics. The climate analyses of the heat waves or extreme temperature events are often performed with hourly or daily observations of air temperature, humidity, and other measured or derived variables, especially the maxima and minima of these data. However, since the beginning of the century, 5-minute observations are readily available for many weather and climate stations in the United States. NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) has been collecting 5-minute observations from the NOAA Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS) stations since 2000, and from the U.S. Climate Reference Network (USCRN) stations since 2005. This presentation will demonstrate the efficacy of utilizing 5-minute environmental observations to characterize heat waves by counting the length of time conditions exceed extreme thresholds based on individual and multiple variables and on derived variables such as the heat index. The length and depth of recovery periods between daytime heating periods will also be examined. The length of time under extreme conditions will influence health outcomes for those directly exposed. Longer periods of dangerous conditions also could increase the chances for poor health outcomes for those only exposed intermittently through cumulative impacts.

  16. Air Twitter: Mashing Crowdsourced Air Quality Event Identification with Scientific Earth Observations (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinson, E. M.

    2010-12-01

    , which allows time series of the number of tweets hourly and daily. Monitoring the time series AQ events are identified from the background chatter about air quality. As the events are identified, collaborative, EventSpaces (Robinson, 2008) are created using the ESIP wiki to collect and merge social and scientific information about the event. The EventSpaces are monitored using Google Analytics. During the August California Fires the traffic increased five-fold to the ESIP wiki. Furthermore, the increase in traffic was entirely due to views of the SoCal FireEventSpace. A top driver to the site was through tweeting the link to the EventSpace and having that link re-tweeted by others like the LA Times. An interesting an unexpected observation, was that most of the increased traffic was coming from Southern California. So the right people were finding the right information at the right time. The overall benefit of using the online community as an AQ event indicator, allows specific effort to be made for initial documentation of air quality events and the result is a catalog of events with some sparse analysis that can be followed-up.

  17. Modelling extreme climatic events in Guadalquivir Estuary ( Spain)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delgado, Juan; Moreno-Navas, Juan; Pulido, Antoine; García-Lafuente, Juan; Calero Quesada, Maria C.; García, Rodrigo

    2017-04-01

    Extreme climatic events, such as heat waves and severe storms are predicted to increase in frequency and magnitude as a consequence of global warming but their socio-ecological effects are poorly understood, particularly in estuarine ecosystems. The Guadalquivir Estuary has been anthropologically modified several times, the original salt marshes have been transformed to grow rice and cotton and approximately one-fourth of the total surface of the estuary is now part of two protected areas, one of them is a UNESCO, MAB Biosphere Reserve. The climatic events are most likely to affect Europe in forthcoming decades and a further understanding how these climatic disturbances drive abrupt changes in the Guadalquivir estuary is needed. A barotropic model has been developed to study how severe storm events affects the estuary by conducting paired control and climate-events simulations. The changes in the local wind and atmospheric pressure conditions in the estuary have been studied in detail and several scenarios are obtained by running the model under control and real storm conditions. The model output has been validated with in situ water elevation and good agreement between modelled and real measurements have been obtained. Our preliminary results show that the model demonstrated the capability describe of the tide-surge levels in the estuary, opening the possibility to study the interaction between climatic events and the port operations and food production activities. The barotropic hydrodynamic model provide spatially explicit information on the key variables governing the tide dynamics of estuarine areas under severe climatic scenarios . The numerical model will be a powerful tool in future climate change mitigation and adaptation programs in a complex socio-ecological system.

  18. Multiple-Satellite Observation of Magnetic Dip Event During the Substorm on 10 October 2013

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Zhaoguo; Chen, Lunjin; Zhu, Hui; Xia, Zhiyang; Reeves, G. D.; Xiong, Ying; Xie, Lun; Cao, Yong

    2017-09-01

    We present a multiple-satellite observation of the magnetic dip event during the substorm on 10 October 2013. The observation illustrates the temporal and spatial evolution of the magnetic dip and gives a compelling evidence that ring current ions induce the magnetic dip by enhanced plasma beta. The dip moves with the energetic ions in a comparable drift velocity and affects the dynamics of relativistic electrons in the radiation belt. In addition, the magnetic dip provides a favorable condition for the electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) wave generation based on the linear theory analysis. The calculated proton diffusion coefficients show that the observed EMIC wave can lead to the pitch angle scattering losses of the ring current ions, which in turn partially relax the magnetic dip in the observations. This study enriches our understanding of magnetic dip evolution and demonstrates the important role of the magnetic dip for the coupling of radiation belt and ring current.

  19. Challenges in the modeling of tidal disruption events lightcurves

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lodato G.

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available In this contribution, I review the recent developments on the modeling of the lightcurve of tidal disruption events. Our understanding has evolved significantly from the earlier seminal results that imply a simple power-law decay of the bolometric light curve as t−5/3. We now know that the details of the rise to the peak of the lightcurve is determined mainly by the internal structure of the disrupted star. We also have improved models for the disc thermal emission, showing that in this case the decline of the luminosity with time should be much flatter than the standard t−5/3 law, especially in optical and UV wavelengths, while the X-ray lightcurve is generally best suited to track the bolometric one. Finally, we are just starting to explore the interesting general relativistic effects that might arise for such events, for which the tidal radius lies very close to the black hole event horizon.

  20. Observations of Lake-Breeze Events During the Toronto 2015 Pan-American Games

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mariani, Zen; Dehghan, Armin; Joe, Paul; Sills, David

    2018-01-01

    Enhanced meteorological observations were made during the 2015 Pan and Parapan American Games in Toronto in order to measure the vertical and horizontal structure of lake-breeze events. Two scanning Doppler lidars (one fixed and one mobile), a C-band radar, and a network including 53 surface meteorological stations (mesonet) provided pressure, temperature, humidity, and wind speed and direction measurements over Lake Ontario and urban areas. These observations captured the full evolution (prior, during, and after) of 27 lake-breeze events (73% of observation days) in order to characterize the convective and dynamic processes driving lake breezes at the local scale and mesoscale. The dominant signal of a passing lake-breeze front (LBF) was an increase in dew-point temperature of 2.3 ± 0.3°C, coinciding with a 180° shift in wind direction and a decrease in air temperature of 2.1 ± 0.2°C. Doppler lidar observations over the lake detected lake breezes 1 hour (on average) before detection by radar and mesonet. On days with the synoptic flow in the offshore direction, the lidars observed wedge-shaped LBFs with shallow depths, which inhibited the radar's ability to detect the lake breeze. The LBF's ground speed and inland penetration distance were found to be well-correlated (r = 0.78), with larger inland penetration distances occurring on days with non-opposing (non-offshore) synoptic flow. The observed enhanced vertical motion ({>} 1 m s^{-1}) at the LBF, observed by the lidar on 54% of lake-breeze days, was greater (at times {>} 2.5 m s^{-1}) than that observed in previous studies and longer-lasting over the lake than over land. The weaker and less pronounced lake-breeze structure over land is illustrated in two case studies highlighting the lifetime of the lake-breeze circulation and the impact of propagation distance on lake-breeze intensity.

  1. Observations of the Evolution of Ion Outflow During a Sawtooth Event

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lund, E. J.; Nowrouzi, N.; Kistler, L. M.; Cai, X.; Frey, H. U.

    2015-12-01

    Sawtooth oscillations are one of several convection modes known to exist in the magnetosphere. Recent simulations have suggested that O+^+ ions transported from the high-latitude ionosphere to the magnetotail can drive sawtooth events. We present observational case studies of sawtooth events using data from FAST near the noon-midnight meridional plane, Cluster in the magnetotail, GOES and LANL energetic particle sensors at geosynchronous orbit, and ACE solar wind data to investigate the evolution of ion outflow during sawtooth events and the question of whether O+^+ outflow from one tooth helps to drive subsequent teeth. We find that oxygen enters the tail from the lobes after each tooth onset, the oxygen fraction in the magnetotail often increases after a tooth onset, and that the oxygen fraction of outflowing ions increases after a tooth event both in the cusp and on the nightside. However, a significant amount of low energy oxygen (≲1 keV) can end up in the dayside inner magnetosphere.

  2. Observations of new particle formation events in the south-eastern Baltic Sea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kristina Plauškaitė

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available New particle formation and growth were observed at a coastal site (Preila station, Lithuania during 1997 and 2000-2002. The total amountof data analysed covers 291 one-day periods, 45 (15% of which were long-term, new particle formation days. Short-term nucleationevents (from a few minutes to one hour and long-term events (from one to eight hours were identified. The mean particlegrowth rate, condensation sink and condensable vapour source rate during nucleation events were 3.9 nm h-1, 1.45 × 10-3 cm-3 s-1 and 7.5 × 104 cm-3 s-1 respectively.The average formation rate J10 was 0.4 cm-3 s-1. The nucleation events were accompaniedmainly by air masses transported from the north (43% and north-west (19%. Meteorological parameters and trace gas (O3, SO2,NO2 concentrations were also analysed. It was found that nucleation events are related to high levels of solar radiation.

  3. Two long-term slow slip events around Tokyo Bay found by GNSS observation during 1996-2011

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tanaka, Yoshiyuki; Yabe, Suguru

    2017-03-01

    Slow slip events (SSEs) with durations ranging from days to more than a decade have been observed in plate subduction zones around the world. In the Kanto district in Japan, several SSEs have been identified based on geodetic observations. However, none of these events have had durations largely exceeding a year. In this study, we show that long-term SSEs with durations longer than 3 years occurred before the year 2000 and after 2007 on the upper interface of the Philippine Sea Plate at depths of 30-40 km. The fault model determined by inversion of global navigation satellite system data is located northeast of Tokyo Bay, where a seismic gap and low seismic wave velocities were detected by seismological observations. Moreover, the acceleration periods of the fault slip corresponded well with increases in the background seismicity for shallower earthquakes. The slip history was also temporally correlated with the long-term shear stress changes governed mainly by non-tidal variations in the ocean bottom pressure. However, the predicted slip from the long-term stress change was too small to reproduce the observed slow slips. To prove the causal relationship between the SSEs and the external stress change, more advanced modeling is necessary to confirm whether such a small slip can trigger an SSE.[Figure not available: see fulltext.

  4. A model for measuring the environmental sustainability of events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boggia, Antonio; Massei, Gianluca; Paolotti, Luisa; Rocchi, Lucia; Schiavi, Federico

    2018-01-15

    Like all human activities, events can generate significant pressures on environmental resources, unless they are well-managed and monitored. Therefore, it is becoming more and more important to develop models that can measure their environmental sustainability. Although increasing attention is being paid to this sector, there is currently no standard protocol or method to assess the eco-sustainability of events. This article presents an innovative assessment procedure to measure the environmental sustainability of events. It is based on several indicators, combined by means of a multi-criteria approach and aggregated into a final index, which we called METER (Measuring Events Through Environmental Research). The METER index uses nine major operational categories, divided in sub-categories and detailed items, which cover all the main aspects concerning environmental sustainability of an event and are evaluated for all its phases, i.e. planning, organisation, implementation, post event. The index is fairly analytical, and is thus able to represent the numerous aspects to be taken into consideration in the environmental assessment of an event. At the same time, it is simple to apply and user-friendly, thanks to its graphics and effective communication of the web platform within it is implemented. Moreover, METER is based on a participatory approach using the bottom-up model and on the principle of subsidiarity. All official international documents regarding sustainable development now require subsidiarity. However, it is not being currently applied as part of any certification or with any evaluation tool. Therefore, although the index is still a prototype, it represents an innovation in the field of environmental management. A simple exemplary case is presented, about a European Spring School held at University of Perugia (Italy) in 2014, in which the application of METER showed a sustainability assessment score of 638 points out of 1000, with an excellent management

  5. A mathematical model for the occurrence of historical events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ohnishi, Teruaki

    2017-12-01

    A mathematical model was proposed for the frequency distribution of historical inter-event time τ. A basic ingredient was constructed by assuming the significance of a newly occurring historical event depending on the magnitude of a preceding event, the decrease of its significance by oblivion during the successive events, and an independent Poisson process for the occurrence of the event. The frequency distribution of τ was derived by integrating the basic ingredient with respect to all social fields and to all stake holders. The function of such a distribution was revealed as the forms of an exponential type, a power law type or an exponential-with-a-tail type depending on the values of constants appearing in the ingredient. The validity of this model was studied by applying it to the two cases of Modern China and Northern Ireland Troubles, where the τ-distribution varies depending on the different countries interacting with China and on the different stage of history of the Troubles, respectively. This indicates that history is consisted from many components with such different types of τ-distribution, which are the similar situation to the cases of other general human activities.

  6. XMM-NEWTON SLEW SURVEY OBSERVATIONS OF THE GRAVITATIONAL WAVE EVENT GW150914

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Troja, E. [NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, 8800 Greenbelt Rd, Greenbelt, MD 20771 (United States); Read, A. M. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, Leicester University, Leicester LE1 7RH (United Kingdom); Tiengo, A. [Istituto Universitario di Studi Superiori, piazza della Vittoria 15, I-27100 Pavia (Italy); Salvaterra, R. [Istituto di Astrofisica Spaziale e Fisica Cosmica Milano, INAF, via E. Bassini 15, I-20133 Milano (Italy)

    2016-05-01

    The detection of the first gravitational wave (GW) transient GW150914 prompted an extensive campaign of follow-up observations at all wavelengths. Although no dedicated XMM-Newton observations have been performed, the satellite passed through the GW150914 error region during normal operations. Here we report the analysis of the data taken during these satellite slews performed two hours and two weeks after the GW event. Our data cover 1.1 and 4.8 deg{sup 2} of the final GW localization region. No X-ray counterpart to GW150914 is found down to a sensitivity of 6 × 10{sup −13} erg cm{sup −2} s{sup −1} in the 0.2–2 keV band. Nevertheless, these observations show the great potential of XMM-Newton slew observations for searching for the electromagnetic counterparts of GW events. A series of adjacent slews performed in response to a GW trigger would take ≲1.5 days to cover most of the typical GW credible region. We discuss this scenario and its prospects for detecting the X-ray counterpart of future GW detections.

  7. Events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Igor V. Karyakin

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available The 9th ARRCN Symposium 2015 was held during 21st–25th October 2015 at the Novotel Hotel, Chumphon, Thailand, one of the most favored travel destinations in Asia. The 10th ARRCN Symposium 2017 will be held during October 2017 in the Davao, Philippines. International Symposium on the Montagu's Harrier (Circus pygargus «The Montagu's Harrier in Europe. Status. Threats. Protection», organized by the environmental organization «Landesbund für Vogelschutz in Bayern e.V.» (LBV was held on November 20-22, 2015 in Germany. The location of this event was the city of Wurzburg in Bavaria.

  8. Thin current sheets observation by MMS during a near-Earth's magnetotail reconnection event

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakamura, R.; Varsani, A.; Nakamura, T.; Genestreti, K.; Plaschke, F.; Baumjohann, W.; Nagai, T.; Burch, J.; Cohen, I. J.; Ergun, R.; Fuselier, S. A.; Giles, B. L.; Le Contel, O.; Lindqvist, P. A.; Magnes, W.; Schwartz, S. J.; Strangeway, R. J.; Torbert, R. B.

    2017-12-01

    During summer 2017, the four spacecraft of the Magnetospheric Multiscale (MMS) mission traversed the nightside magnetotail current sheet at an apogee of 25 RE. They detected a number of flow reversal events suggestive of the passage of the reconnection current sheet. Due to the mission's unprecedented high-time resolution and spatial separation well below the ion scales, structure of thin current sheets is well resolved both with plasma and field measurements. In this study we examine the detailed structure of thin current sheets during a flow reversal event from tailward flow to Earthward flow, when MMS crossed the center of the current sheet . We investigate the changes in the structure of the thin current sheet relative to the X-point based on multi-point analysis. We determine the motion and strength of the current sheet from curlometer calculations comparing these with currents obtained from the particle data. The observed structures of these current sheets are also compared with simulations.

  9. A Community Data Model for Hydrologic Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tarboton, D. G.; Horsburgh, J. S.; Zaslavsky, I.; Maidment, D. R.; Valentine, D.; Jennings, B.

    2006-12-01

    The CUAHSI Hydrologic Information System project is developing information technology infrastructure to support hydrologic science. Hydrologic information science involves the description of hydrologic environments in a consistent way, using data models for information integration. This includes a hydrologic observations data model for the storage and retrieval of hydrologic observations in a relational database designed to facilitate data retrieval for integrated analysis of information collected by multiple investigators. It is intended to provide a standard format to facilitate the effective sharing of information between investigators and to facilitate analysis of information within a single study area or hydrologic observatory, or across hydrologic observatories and regions. The observations data model is designed to store hydrologic observations and sufficient ancillary information (metadata) about the observations to allow them to be unambiguously interpreted and used and provide traceable heritage from raw measurements to usable information. The design is based on the premise that a relational database at the single observation level is most effective for providing querying capability and cross dimension data retrieval and analysis. This premise is being tested through the implementation of a prototype hydrologic observations database, and the development of web services for the retrieval of data from and ingestion of data into the database. These web services hosted by the San Diego Supercomputer center make data in the database accessible both through a Hydrologic Data Access System portal and directly from applications software such as Excel, Matlab and ArcGIS that have Standard Object Access Protocol (SOAP) capability. This paper will (1) describe the data model; (2) demonstrate the capability for representing diverse data in the same database; (3) demonstrate the use of the database from applications software for the performance of hydrologic analysis

  10. Plasma Observations During the Mars Atmospheric Plume Event of March-April 2012

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrews, D. J.; Barabash, S.; Edberg, N. J. T.; Gurnett, D. A.; Hall, B. E. S.; Holmstrom, M.; Lester, M.; Morgan, D. D.; Opgenoorth, H. J.; Ramstad, R.; hide

    2016-01-01

    We present initial analysis and conclusions from plasma observations made during the reported Mars Dust plume event of March - April 2012. During this period, multiple independent amateur observers detected a localized, high-altitude plume over the Martian dawn terminator [Sanchez-Lavega7 et al., Nature, 2015, doi:10.1038nature14162], the origin of which remains to be explained. We report on in-situ measurements of ionospheric plasma density and solar wind parameters throughout this interval made by Mars Express, obtained over the surface region, but at the opposing terminator. We tentatively conclude that the formation and/or transport of this plume to the altitudes where it was observed could be due in part the result of a large interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) encountering the Martian system. Interestingly, we note that a similar plume detection in May 1997 may also have been associated with a large ICME impact at Mars.

  11. Neutron-induced single event upsets in static RAMS observed at 10 km flight altitude

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Olsen, J.; Becher, P.E.; Fynbo, P.B.; Raaby, P. Schultz, J.

    1993-01-01

    Neutron induced single event upsets (SEUs) in static memory devices (SRAMs) have so far been seen only in laboratory environments. The authors report observations of 14 neutron induced SEUs at commercial aircraft flight altitudes as well. The observed SEU rate at 10 km flight altitude based on exposure of 160 standard 256 Kbit CMOS SRAMs is 4.8 · 10 -8 upsets/bit/day. In the laboratory 117 SRAMs of two different brands were irradiated with fast neutrons from a Pu-Be source. A total of 176 SEUs have been observed, among these are two SEU pairs. The upset rates from the laboratory tests are compared to those found in the airborne SRAMS

  12. Statistical modelling for recurrent events: an application to sports injuries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ullah, Shahid; Gabbett, Tim J; Finch, Caroline F

    2014-09-01

    Injuries are often recurrent, with subsequent injuries influenced by previous occurrences and hence correlation between events needs to be taken into account when analysing such data. This paper compares five different survival models (Cox proportional hazards (CoxPH) model and the following generalisations to recurrent event data: Andersen-Gill (A-G), frailty, Wei-Lin-Weissfeld total time (WLW-TT) marginal, Prentice-Williams-Peterson gap time (PWP-GT) conditional models) for the analysis of recurrent injury data. Empirical evaluation and comparison of different models were performed using model selection criteria and goodness-of-fit statistics. Simulation studies assessed the size and power of each model fit. The modelling approach is demonstrated through direct application to Australian National Rugby League recurrent injury data collected over the 2008 playing season. Of the 35 players analysed, 14 (40%) players had more than 1 injury and 47 contact injuries were sustained over 29 matches. The CoxPH model provided the poorest fit to the recurrent sports injury data. The fit was improved with the A-G and frailty models, compared to WLW-TT and PWP-GT models. Despite little difference in model fit between the A-G and frailty models, in the interest of fewer statistical assumptions it is recommended that, where relevant, future studies involving modelling of recurrent sports injury data use the frailty model in preference to the CoxPH model or its other generalisations. The paper provides a rationale for future statistical modelling approaches for recurrent sports injury. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  13. Methods and Model Dependency of Extreme Event Attribution: The 2015 European Drought

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hauser, Mathias; Gudmundsson, Lukas; Orth, René; Jézéquel, Aglaé; Haustein, Karsten; Vautard, Robert; van Oldenborgh, Geert J.; Wilcox, Laura; Seneviratne, Sonia I.

    2017-10-01

    Science on the role of anthropogenic influence on extreme weather events, such as heatwaves or droughts, has evolved rapidly in the past years. The approach of "event attribution" compares the occurrence-probability of an event in the present, factual climate with its probability in a hypothetical, counterfactual climate without human-induced climate change. Several methods can be used for event attribution, based on climate model simulations and observations, and usually researchers only assess a subset of methods and data sources. Here, we explore the role of methodological choices for the attribution of the 2015 meteorological summer drought in Europe. We present contradicting conclusions on the relevance of human influence as a function of the chosen data source and event attribution methodology. Assessments using the maximum number of models and counterfactual climates with pre-industrial greenhouse gas concentrations point to an enhanced drought risk in Europe. However, other evaluations show contradictory evidence. These results highlight the need for a multi-model and multi-method framework in event attribution research, especially for events with a low signal-to-noise ratio and high model dependency such as regional droughts.

  14. Interpretation of seismic section by acoustic modeling. Study of large amplitude events; Hadoba modeling ni yoru jishin tansa danmen no kaishaku. Kyoshinhaba event ni taisuru kosatsu

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tamagawa, T; Matsuoka, T; Sato, T [Japan Petroleum Exploration Corp., Tokyo (Japan); Minegishi, M; Tsuru, T [Japan National Oil Corp., Tokyo (Japan)

    1996-05-01

    A large amplitude event difficult to interpret was discovered in the overlap section in offset data beyond 10km targeting at deep structures, and the event was examined. A wave field modeling was carried out by use of a simplified synclinal structure model because it had been estimated that the large amplitude event had something to do with a synclinal structure. A pseudospectral program was used for modeling the wave field on the assumption that the synclinal structure model would be an acoustic body and that the surface would contain free boundaries and multiple reflection. It was found as the result that a discontinuous large amplitude event is mapped out in the synclinal part of the overlap section when a far trace is applied beyond the structure during a CMP overlap process. This can be attributed to the concentration of energy produced by multiple reflection in the synclinal part and by the reflection waves beyond the critical angle. Accordingly, it is possible that phenomena similar to those encountered in the modeling process are emerging during actual observation. 2 refs., 8 figs.

  15. Nuclear facility safeguards systems modeling using discrete event simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Engi, D.

    1977-01-01

    The threat of theft or dispersal of special nuclear material at a nuclear facility is treated by studying the temporal relationships between adversaries having authorized access to the facility (insiders) and safeguards system events by using a GASP IV discrete event simulation. The safeguards system events--detection, assessment, delay, communications, and neutralization--are modeled for the general insider adversary strategy which includes degradation of the safeguards system elements followed by an attempt to steal or disperse special nuclear material. The performance measure used in the analysis is the estimated probability of safeguards system success in countering the adversary based upon a predetermined set of adversary actions. An exemplary problem which includes generated results is presented for a hypothetical nuclear facility. The results illustrate representative information that could be utilized by safeguards decision-makers

  16. Self-Exciting Point Process Modeling of Conversation Event Sequences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masuda, Naoki; Takaguchi, Taro; Sato, Nobuo; Yano, Kazuo

    Self-exciting processes of Hawkes type have been used to model various phenomena including earthquakes, neural activities, and views of online videos. Studies of temporal networks have revealed that sequences of social interevent times for individuals are highly bursty. We examine some basic properties of event sequences generated by the Hawkes self-exciting process to show that it generates bursty interevent times for a wide parameter range. Then, we fit the model to the data of conversation sequences recorded in company offices in Japan. In this way, we can estimate relative magnitudes of the self excitement, its temporal decay, and the base event rate independent of the self excitation. These variables highly depend on individuals. We also point out that the Hawkes model has an important limitation that the correlation in the interevent times and the burstiness cannot be independently modulated.

  17. Event Horizon Telescope observations as probes for quantum structure of astrophysical black holes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giddings, Steven B.; Psaltis, Dimitrios

    2018-04-01

    The need for a consistent quantum evolution for black holes has led to proposals that their semiclassical description is modified not just near the singularity, but at horizon or larger scales. If such modifications extend beyond the horizon, they influence regions accessible to distant observation. Natural candidates for these modifications behave like metric fluctuations, with characteristic length scales and timescales set by the horizon radius. We investigate the possibility of using the Event Horizon Telescope to observe these effects, if they have a strength sufficient to make quantum evolution consistent with unitarity, without introducing new scales. We find that such quantum fluctuations can introduce a strong time dependence for the shape and size of the shadow that a black hole casts on its surrounding emission. For the black hole in the center of the Milky Way, detecting the rapid time variability of its shadow will require nonimaging timing techniques. However, for the much larger black hole in the center of the M87 galaxy, a variable black-hole shadow, if present with these parameters, would be readily observable in the individual snapshots that will be obtained by the Event Horizon Telescope.

  18. Observation of jets in high transverse energy events at the CERN proton antiproton collider

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arnison, G.; Astbury, A.; Grayer, G.; Haynes, W.J.; Nandi, A.K.; Roberts, C.; Scott, W.; Shah, T.P.; Bowcock, T.J.V.; Eisenhandler, E.; Gibson, W.R.; Honma, A.; Kalmus, P.I.P.; Keeler, R.; Salvi, G.; Thompson, G.; Cochet, C.; DeBeer, M.; Denegri, D.; Givernaud, A.; Laugier, J.P.; Leveque, A.; Locci, E.; Loret, M.; Malosse, J.J.; Rich, J.; Sass, J.; Saudraix, J.; Savoy-Navarro, A.; Spiro, M.; Dobrzynski, L.; Fontaine, G.; Geer, S.; Ghesquiere, C.; Giraud-Heraud, Y.; Kryn, D.; Mendiburu, J.P.; Orkin-Lecourtois, A.; Sajot, G.; Vrana, J.; Bacci, C.; Bernabei, R.; Ceradini, F.; Corden, M.; Dallman, D.; D'Angelo, S.; Dowell, J.D.; Edwards, M.; Eggert, K.; Ellis, N.; Erhard, P.; Faissner, H.; Frey, R.; Fruehwirth, R.; Garvey, J.; Giboni, K.L.; Gutierrez, P.; Hansl-Kozanecka, T.; Hodges, C.; Hoffmann, D.; Homer, R.J.; Karimaeki, V.; Kenyon, I.; Kernan, A.; Kinnunen, R.; Kozanecki, W.; Lehmann, H.; Leuchs, R.; McMahon, T.; Moricca, M.; Paoluzi, L.; Pimia, M.; Radermacher, E.; Ransdell, J.; Reithler, H.; Salvini, G.; Strauss, J.; Sumorok, K.; Szoncso, F.; Tscheslog, E.; Tuominiemi, J.; Wahl, H.D.; Watkins, P.; Wilson, J.

    1983-01-01

    With a segmented total absorption calorimeter of large acceptance, we have measured the total transverse energy spectrum for panti p collisions at ssup(1/2)=540 GeV up to μEsub(T)=130 GeV in the pseudo-rapidity range vertical strokeetavertical stroke 40 GeV, the fraction of events with two jets increases with μEsub(T); this event structure is dominant for μEsub(T)> 100 GeV. We measure the inclusive jet cross section up to Esub(T)(jet)=60 GeV and the two-jet mass distribution up to 120 GeV/c 2 . The measured cross sections are compatible with the predictions of hard scattering models based on QCD. (orig.)

  19. Onsets of Solar Proton Events in Satellite and Ground Level Observations: A Comparison

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Jing; Rodriguez, Juan V.

    2018-03-01

    The early detection of solar proton event onsets is essential for protecting humans and electronics in space, as well as passengers and crew at aviation altitudes. Two commonly compared methods for observing solar proton events that are sufficiently large and energetic to be detected on the ground through the creation of secondary radiation—known as ground level enhancements (GLEs)—are (1) a network of ground-based neutron monitors (NMs) and (2) satellite-based particle detectors. Until recently, owing to the different time resolution of the two data sets, it has not been feasible to compare these two types of observations using the same detection algorithm. This paper presents a comparison between the two observational platforms using newly processed >100 MeV 1 min count rates and fluxes from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) 8-12 satellites, and 1 min count rates from the Neutron Monitor Database. We applied the same detection algorithm to each data set (tuned to the different background noise levels of the instrument types). Seventeen SPEs with GLEs were studied: GLEs 55-70 from Solar Cycle 23 and GLE 71 from Solar Cycle 24. The median difference in the event detection times by GOES and NM data is 0 min, indicating no innate benefit in time of either system. The 10th, 25th, 75th, and 90th percentiles of the onset time differences (GOES minus NMs) are -7.2 min, -1.5 min, 2.5 min, and 4.2 min, respectively. This is in contrast to previous studies in which NM detections led GOES by 8 to 52 min without accounting for different alert protocols.

  20. Free-choice family learning experiences at informal astronomy observing events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wenger, Matthew C.

    This qualitative study is an exploratory look at family experiences at night time telescope observing events, often called star parties. Four families participated in this study which looked at their expectations, experiences and agendas as well as the roles that identity and family culture played in the negotiation of meaning. Two families who had prior experience with attending star parties were recruited ahead of time and two other families who were first time visitors were recruited on-site at the observing event. Data were collected at two star parties. At each event, one experienced family was paired with an on-site family for the purposes of facilitating conversations about expectations and prior experiences. The results of this study showed that learning is constantly occurring among families, and that star parties and family culture were mediational means for making meaning. Expectations and agendas were found to affect the families' star party experiences and differences were observed between the expectations and experiences of families based on their prior experiences with star parties. These data also showed that family members are actively negotiating their individual and family identities. These families use their cultural history together to make sense of their star party experiences; however, the meaning that families were negotiating was often focused more on developing family and individual identity rather than science content. The families in this study used the star party context as a way to connect with each other, to make sense of their prior experiences, and as raw material for making sense of future experiences.

  1. The virtual enhancements - solar proton event radiation (VESPER) model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aminalragia-Giamini, Sigiava; Sandberg, Ingmar; Papadimitriou, Constantinos; Daglis, Ioannis A.; Jiggens, Piers

    2018-02-01

    A new probabilistic model introducing a novel paradigm for the modelling of the solar proton environment at 1 AU is presented. The virtual enhancements - solar proton event radiation model (VESPER) uses the European space agency's solar energetic particle environment modelling (SEPEM) Reference Dataset and produces virtual time-series of proton differential fluxes. In this regard it fundamentally diverges from the approach of existing SPE models that are based on probabilistic descriptions of SPE macroscopic characteristics such as peak flux and cumulative fluence. It is shown that VESPER reproduces well the dataset characteristics it uses, and further comparisons with existing models are made with respect to their results. The production of time-series as the main output of the model opens a straightforward way for the calculation of solar proton radiation effects in terms of time-series and the pairing with effects caused by trapped radiation and galactic cosmic rays.

  2. Characteristics and conditions of production of transient luminous events observed over a maritime storm

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Soula, S.; van der Velde, O.; Palmiéri, J.

    2010-01-01

    On the night of 15/16 November 2007, cameras in southern France detected 30 transient luminous events (TLEs) over a storm located in the Corsican region (France). Among these TLEs, 19 were sprites, 6 were halos, and 5 were elves. For 26 of them, a positive “parent” cloud-to-ground lightning (P...... in a sequence had much lower peak currents. Several triangulated sprites were found to be shifted from their P+CG flashes by about 10 to 50 km and preferentially downstream. The observations suggest that the P+CG flashes can initiate both sprites and other CG flashes in a storm....

  3. Regression analysis of mixed recurrent-event and panel-count data with additive rate models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Liang; Zhao, Hui; Sun, Jianguo; Leisenring, Wendy; Robison, Leslie L

    2015-03-01

    Event-history studies of recurrent events are often conducted in fields such as demography, epidemiology, medicine, and social sciences (Cook and Lawless, 2007, The Statistical Analysis of Recurrent Events. New York: Springer-Verlag; Zhao et al., 2011, Test 20, 1-42). For such analysis, two types of data have been extensively investigated: recurrent-event data and panel-count data. However, in practice, one may face a third type of data, mixed recurrent-event and panel-count data or mixed event-history data. Such data occur if some study subjects are monitored or observed continuously and thus provide recurrent-event data, while the others are observed only at discrete times and hence give only panel-count data. A more general situation is that each subject is observed continuously over certain time periods but only at discrete times over other time periods. There exists little literature on the analysis of such mixed data except that published by Zhu et al. (2013, Statistics in Medicine 32, 1954-1963). In this article, we consider the regression analysis of mixed data using the additive rate model and develop some estimating equation-based approaches to estimate the regression parameters of interest. Both finite sample and asymptotic properties of the resulting estimators are established, and the numerical studies suggest that the proposed methodology works well for practical situations. The approach is applied to a Childhood Cancer Survivor Study that motivated this study. © 2014, The International Biometric Society.

  4. Stratospheric dryness: model simulations and satellite observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Lelieveld

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available The mechanisms responsible for the extreme dryness of the stratosphere have been debated for decades. A key difficulty has been the lack of comprehensive models which are able to reproduce the observations. Here we examine results from the coupled lower-middle atmosphere chemistry general circulation model ECHAM5/MESSy1 together with satellite observations. Our model results match observed temperatures in the tropical lower stratosphere and realistically represent the seasonal and inter-annual variability of water vapor. The model reproduces the very low water vapor mixing ratios (below 2 ppmv periodically observed at the tropical tropopause near 100 hPa, as well as the characteristic tape recorder signal up to about 10 hPa, providing evidence that the dehydration mechanism is well-captured. Our results confirm that the entry of tropospheric air into the tropical stratosphere is forced by large-scale wave dynamics, whereas radiative cooling regionally decelerates upwelling and can even cause downwelling. Thin cirrus forms in the cold air above cumulonimbus clouds, and the associated sedimentation of ice particles between 100 and 200 hPa reduces water mass fluxes by nearly two orders of magnitude compared to air mass fluxes. Transport into the stratosphere is supported by regional net radiative heating, to a large extent in the outer tropics. During summer very deep monsoon convection over Southeast Asia, centered over Tibet, moistens the stratosphere.

  5. Modelling the interaction between flooding events and economic growth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Grames

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Socio-hydrology describes the interaction between the socio-economy and water. Recent models analyze the interplay of community risk-coping culture, flooding damage and economic growth (Di Baldassarre et al., 2013; Viglione et al., 2014. These models descriptively explain the feedbacks between socio-economic development and natural disasters like floods. Contrary to these descriptive models, our approach develops an optimization model, where the intertemporal decision of an economic agent interacts with the hydrological system. In order to build this first economic growth model describing the interaction between the consumption and investment decisions of an economic agent and the occurrence of flooding events, we transform an existing descriptive stochastic model into an optimal deterministic model. The intermediate step is to formulate and simulate a descriptive deterministic model. We develop a periodic water function to approximate the former discrete stochastic time series of rainfall events. Due to the non-autonomous exogenous periodic rainfall function the long-term path of consumption and investment will be periodic.

  6. A semi-analytical foreshock model for energetic storm particle events inside 1 AU

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vainio Rami

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available We have constructed a semi-analytical model of the energetic-ion foreshock of a CME-driven coronal/interplanetary shock wave responsible for the acceleration of large solar energetic particle (SEP events. The model is based on the analytical model of diffusive shock acceleration of Bell (1978, appended with a temporal dependence of the cut-off momentum of the energetic particles accelerated at the shock, derived from the theory. Parameters of the model are re-calibrated using a fully time-dependent self-consistent simulation model of the coupled particle acceleration and Alfvén-wave generation upstream of the shock. Our results show that analytical estimates of the cut-off energy resulting from the simplified theory and frequently used in SEP modelling are overestimating the cut-off momentum at the shock by one order magnitude. We show also that the cut-off momentum observed remotely far upstream of the shock (e.g., at 1 AU can be used to infer the properties of the foreshock and the resulting energetic storm particle (ESP event, when the shock is still at small distances from the Sun, unaccessible to the in-situ observations. Our results can be used in ESP event modelling for future missions to the inner heliosphere, like the Solar Orbiter and Solar Probe Plus as well as in developing acceleration models for SEP events in the solar corona.

  7. Solar micro-bursts of 22. 2 GHz and their relationship to events observed at lower frequencies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Blakey, J R [Universidade Mackenzie, Sao Paulo (Brazil). Centro de Radio-Astronomia e Astrofisica

    1976-01-01

    Observations of McMath region 10433 at 22 GHz using a telescope with a 4 minutes of arc beam during July 1974 revealed the existence events or 'microbursts' with intensities below the sensitivity limit of normal solar patrol instruments. Many of these events were simply the high frequency counterpart of more intense bursts observed at lower frequencies. This note considers the small number of events which suggest that the gyro-synchrotron mechanism alone is incapable of explaining the observations and indicates that a thermal mechanism is needed to explain the high frequency event.

  8. Observations and NLTE modeling of Ellerman bombs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berlicki, A.; Heinzel, P.

    2014-07-01

    Context. Ellerman bombs (EBs) are short-lived, compact, and spatially well localized emission structures that are observed well in the wings of the hydrogen Hα line. EBs are also observed in the chromospheric CaII lines and in UV continua as bright points located within active regions. Hα line profiles of EBs show a deep absorption at the line center and enhanced emission in the line wings with maxima around ±1 Å from the line center. Similar shapes of the line profiles are observed for the CaII IR line at 8542 Å. In CaII H and K lines the emission peaks are much stronger, and EBs emission is also enhanced in the line center. Aims: It is generally accepted that EBs may be considered as compact microflares located in lower solar atmosphere that contribute to the heating of these low-lying regions, close to the temperature minimum of the atmosphere. However, it is still not clear where exactly the emission of EBs is formed in the solar atmosphere. High-resolution spectrophotometric observations of EBs were used for determining of their physical parameters and construction of semi-empirical models. Obtained models allow us to determine the position of EBs in the solar atmosphere, as well as the vertical structure of the activated EB atmosphere Methods: In our analysis we used observations of EBs obtained in the Hα and CaII H lines with the Dutch Open Telescope (DOT). These one-hour long simultaneous sequences obtained with high temporal and spatial resolution were used to determine the line emissions. To analyze them, we used NLTE numerical codes for the construction of grids of 243 semi-empirical models simulating EBs structures. In this way, the observed emission could be compared with the synthetic line spectra calculated for all such models. Results: For a specific model we found reasonable agreement between the observed and theoretical emission and thus we consider such model as a good approximation to EBs atmospheres. This model is characterized by an

  9. Modeling a Single SEP Event from Multiple Vantage Points Using the iPATH Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Junxiang; Li, Gang; Fu, Shuai; Zank, Gary; Ao, Xianzhi

    2018-02-01

    Using the recently extended 2D improved Particle Acceleration and Transport in the Heliosphere (iPATH) model, we model an example gradual solar energetic particle event as observed at multiple locations. Protons and ions that are energized via the diffusive shock acceleration mechanism are followed at a 2D coronal mass ejection-driven shock where the shock geometry varies across the shock front. The subsequent transport of energetic particles, including cross-field diffusion, is modeled by a Monte Carlo code that is based on a stochastic differential equation method. Time intensity profiles and particle spectra at multiple locations and different radial distances, separated in longitudes, are presented. The results shown here are relevant to the upcoming Parker Solar Probe mission.

  10. Cluster observations of bounday layer structure and a flux transfer event near the cusp

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. C. Fear

    2005-10-01

    Full Text Available On the 25th January 2002 between 10:00 and 12:00 UT, the four Cluster spacecraft passed through the northern high-latitude cusp, the dayside magnetosphere and into the magnetosheath in a linear formation. In the magnetosphere the PEACE electron spectrometers on the four spacecraft all observed a series of transient bursts of magnetosheath-like plasma, but without bipolar magnetic signatures in the magnetopause normal component as might be expected if the plasma had been injected by transient reconnection (flux transfer events – FTEs. Reordering the data using the magnetopause transition parameter reveals that these plasma observations, the related variations in the magnetic field and the balance of magnetic and thermal gas pressures are consistent with transient entries into a stable high-latitude boundary layer structure. However, once some of the spacecraft entered the magnetosheath, FTE signatures were observed outside the magnetopause at the same time as some of the boundary layer entries occurred at the other spacecraft inside. Thus, (a the lack of a bipolar BN signature is inconsistent with the traditional picture of a magnetospheric FTE, and (b the cause of the observed entry of the spacecraft into the boundary layer (pressure pulse or passing magnetosheath FTE can only be determined by spacecraft observations in the magnetosheath. Keywords. Magnetospheric physics (Magnetopause, cusp and bondary layers; Solar wind- magnetosphere interactions; Magnetosheath

  11. Cluster observations of bounday layer structure and a flux transfer event near the cusp

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. C. Fear

    2005-10-01

    Full Text Available On the 25th January 2002 between 10:00 and 12:00 UT, the four Cluster spacecraft passed through the northern high-latitude cusp, the dayside magnetosphere and into the magnetosheath in a linear formation. In the magnetosphere the PEACE electron spectrometers on the four spacecraft all observed a series of transient bursts of magnetosheath-like plasma, but without bipolar magnetic signatures in the magnetopause normal component as might be expected if the plasma had been injected by transient reconnection (flux transfer events – FTEs. Reordering the data using the magnetopause transition parameter reveals that these plasma observations, the related variations in the magnetic field and the balance of magnetic and thermal gas pressures are consistent with transient entries into a stable high-latitude boundary layer structure. However, once some of the spacecraft entered the magnetosheath, FTE signatures were observed outside the magnetopause at the same time as some of the boundary layer entries occurred at the other spacecraft inside. Thus, (a the lack of a bipolar BN signature is inconsistent with the traditional picture of a magnetospheric FTE, and (b the cause of the observed entry of the spacecraft into the boundary layer (pressure pulse or passing magnetosheath FTE can only be determined by spacecraft observations in the magnetosheath.

    Keywords. Magnetospheric physics (Magnetopause, cusp and bondary layers; Solar wind- magnetosphere interactions; Magnetosheath

  12. Modeling associations between latent event processes governing time series of pulsing hormones.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Huayu; Carlson, Nichole E; Grunwald, Gary K; Polotsky, Alex J

    2017-10-31

    This work is motivated by a desire to quantify relationships between two time series of pulsing hormone concentrations. The locations of pulses are not directly observed and may be considered latent event processes. The latent event processes of pulsing hormones are often associated. It is this joint relationship we model. Current approaches to jointly modeling pulsing hormone data generally assume that a pulse in one hormone is coupled with a pulse in another hormone (one-to-one association). However, pulse coupling is often imperfect. Existing joint models are not flexible enough for imperfect systems. In this article, we develop a more flexible class of pulse association models that incorporate parameters quantifying imperfect pulse associations. We propose a novel use of the Cox process model as a model of how pulse events co-occur in time. We embed the Cox process model into a hormone concentration model. Hormone concentration is the observed data. Spatial birth and death Markov chain Monte Carlo is used for estimation. Simulations show the joint model works well for quantifying both perfect and imperfect associations and offers estimation improvements over single hormone analyses. We apply this model to luteinizing hormone (LH) and follicle stimulating hormone (FSH), two reproductive hormones. Use of our joint model results in an ability to investigate novel hypotheses regarding associations between LH and FSH secretion in obese and non-obese women. © 2017, The International Biometric Society.

  13. Observations of Blue Discharges Associated With Negative Narrow Bipolar Events in Active Deep Convection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Feifan; Zhu, Baoyou; Lu, Gaopeng; Qin, Zilong; Lei, Jiuhou; Peng, Kang-Ming; Chen, Alfred B.; Huang, Anjing; Cummer, Steven A.; Chen, Mingli; Ma, Ming; Lyu, Fanchao; Zhou, Helin

    2018-03-01

    On 19 August 2012, the Imager of Sprites and Upper Atmospheric Lightning on board the FORMOSAT-2 satellite captured a sequence of seven blue discharges within 1 min that emanated from a parent thunderstorm over Lake Taihu in East China. The analysis of lightning activity produced in the thunderstorm indicates that at least six of these events occurred in association with negative narrow bipolar events (NBEs) that were concurrent with the blue discharge by less than 1 ms, and negative cloud-to-ground occurred within 6 s before each blue discharge, which is in agreement with the modeling presented by Krehbiel et al. (2008). Therefore, the frequent occurrence of negative cloud-to-ground could provide the favorable condition for the production of blue discharges, and negative NBEs are probably the initial event of blue discharges. The detection of negative NBEs might provide a convenient approach to detect the occurrence of blue discharges as lightning bolt shooting upward from the top of energetic thunderstorms.

  14. Observations of neutral winds, wind shears, and wave structure during a sporadic-E/QP event

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. F. Larsen

    2005-10-01

    Full Text Available The second Sporadic E Experiment over Kyushu (SEEK-2 was carried out on 3 August 2002, during an active sporadic-E event that also showed quasi-periodic (QP echoes. Two rockets were launched into the event from Kagoshima Space Center in southern Japan 15 min apart. Both carried a suite of instruments, but the second rocket also released a trimethyl aluminum (TMA trail to measure the neutral winds and turbulence structure. In a number of earlier measurements in similar conditions, large winds and shears that were either unstable or close to instability were observed in the altitude range where the ionization layer occurred. The SEEK-2 wind measurements showed similar vertical structure, but unlike earlier experiments, there was a significant difference between the up-leg and down-leg wind profiles. In addition, wave or billow-like fluctuations were evident in the up-leg portion of the trail, while the lower portion of the down-leg trail was found to have extremely strong turbulence that led to a rapid break-up of the trail. The large east-west gradient in the winds and the strong turbulence have not been observed before. The wind profiles and shears, as well as the qualitative characteristics of the strong turbulence are presented, along with a discussion of the implications of the dynamical features. Keywords. Ionosphere (Mid-latitude ionosphere; Ionospheric irregularities; Electric field and currents

  15. 3D Evolution of a Filament Disappearance Event Observed by STEREO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gosain, S.; Schmieder, B.; Venkatakrishnan, P.; Chandra, R.; Artzner, G.

    2009-10-01

    A filament disappearance event was observed on 22 May 2008 during our recent campaign JOP 178. The filament, situated in the Southern Hemisphere, showed sinistral chirality consistent with the hemispheric rule. The event was well observed by several observatories, in particular by THEMIS. One day, before the disappearance, Hα observations showed up- and down-flows in adjacent locations along the filament, which suggest plasma motions along twisted flux rope. THEMIS and GONG observations show shearing photospheric motions leading to magnetic flux canceling around barbs. STEREO A, B spacecraft with separation angle 52.4°, showed quite different views of this untwisting flux rope in He ii 304 Å images. Here, we reconstruct the three-dimensional geometry of the filament during its eruption phase using STEREO EUV He ii 304 Å images and find that the filament was highly inclined to the solar normal. The He ii 304 Å movies show individual threads, which oscillate and rise to an altitude of about 120 Mm with apparent velocities of about 100 km s-1 during the rapid evolution phase. Finally, as the flux rope expands into the corona, the filament disappears by becoming optically thin to undetectable levels. No CME was detected by STEREO, only a faint CME was recorded by LASCO at the beginning of the disappearance phase at 02:00 UT, which could be due to partial filament eruption. Further, STEREO Fe xii 195 Å images showed bright loops beneath the filament prior to the disappearance phase, suggesting magnetic reconnection below the flux rope.

  16. Optimization of Operations Resources via Discrete Event Simulation Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joshi, B.; Morris, D.; White, N.; Unal, R.

    1996-01-01

    The resource levels required for operation and support of reusable launch vehicles are typically defined through discrete event simulation modeling. Minimizing these resources constitutes an optimization problem involving discrete variables and simulation. Conventional approaches to solve such optimization problems involving integer valued decision variables are the pattern search and statistical methods. However, in a simulation environment that is characterized by search spaces of unknown topology and stochastic measures, these optimization approaches often prove inadequate. In this paper, we have explored the applicability of genetic algorithms to the simulation domain. Genetic algorithms provide a robust search strategy that does not require continuity and differentiability of the problem domain. The genetic algorithm successfully minimized the operation and support activities for a space vehicle, through a discrete event simulation model. The practical issues associated with simulation optimization, such as stochastic variables and constraints, were also taken into consideration.

  17. An Event Observed as a Terrestrial Gamma-ray Flash (TGF) and a Terrestrial Electron Beam (TEB) by Fermi GBM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stanbro, M.; Briggs, M. S.; Cramer, E.; Dwyer, J. R.; Roberts, O.

    2017-12-01

    Terrestrial Gamma-ray Flashes (TGFs) are sub-ms, intense flashes of gamma-rays. They are due to the acceleration of electrons with relativistic energies in thunderstorms that emit gamma-rays via bremsstrahlung. When these photons reach the upper atmosphere, they can produce secondary electrons and positrons that escape the atmosphere and propagate along the Earth's magnetic field line. Space instruments can detect these charged particles, known as Terrestrial Electron Beams (TEBs), after traveling thousands of kilometers from the thunderstorm. We present an event that was observed by the Fermi Gamma-ray Burst Monitor (GBM) as both a TGF and a TEB. To our knowledge this is the first such event that has ever been observed. We interpret the first pulse as a TGF with a duration of 0.2 ms. After 0.5 ms a second pulse is seen with a duration of 2 ms that we interpret as a TEB. Confirming this interpretation, a third pulse is seen 90 ms later, which is understood as a TEB magnetic mirror pulse. The World Wide Lightning Location Network (WWLLN) and the Earth Networks Total Lightning Network (ENTLN) detected a sferic, under the spacecraft footprint and within the southern magnetic footprint that is simultaneous with the first pulse. Along with the sferic, this unique observation allows us for the first time to test TGF and TEB models for the same event. We present Monte Carlo simulations of the first two pulses, including pitch angles for electrons and positrons, to see if the models can consistently describe the TGF/TEB spectra and time profiles originating from the same source.

  18. Motion of flux transfer events: a test of the Cooling model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. C. Fear

    2007-07-01

    Full Text Available The simple model of reconnected field line motion developed by Cooling et al. (2001 has been used in several recent case studies to explain the motion of flux transfer events across the magnetopause. We examine 213 FTEs observed by all four Cluster spacecraft under a variety of IMF conditions between November 2002 and June 2003, when the spacecraft tetrahedron separation was ~5000 km. Observed velocities were calculated from multi-spacecraft timing analysis, and compared with the velocities predicted by the Cooling model in order to check the validity of the model. After excluding three categories of FTEs (events with poorly defined velocities, a significant velocity component out of the magnetopause surface, or a scale size of less than 5000 km, we were left with a sample of 118 events. 78% of these events were consistent in both direction of motion and speed with one of the two model de Hoffmann-Teller (dHT velocities calculated from the Cooling model (to within 30° and a factor of two in the speed. We also examined the plasma signatures of several magnetosheath FTEs; the electron signatures confirm the hemisphere of connection indicated by the model in most cases. This indicates that although the model is a simple one, it is a useful tool for identifying the source regions of FTEs.

  19. Model Based Verification of Cyber Range Event Environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-11-13

    that may include users, applications, operating systems, servers, hosts, routers, switches, control planes , and instrumentation planes , many of...which lack models for their configuration. Our main contributions in this paper are the following. First, we have developed a configuration ontology...configuration errors in environment designs for several cyber range events. The rest of the paper is organized as follows. Section 2 provides an overview of

  20. Observational tests of FRW world models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lahav, Ofer

    2002-01-01

    Observational tests for the cosmological principle are reviewed. Assuming the FRW metric we then summarize estimates of cosmological parameters from various datasets, in particular the cosmic microwave background and the 2dF galaxy redshift survey. These and other analyses suggest a best-fit Λ-cold dark matter model with Ω m = 1 - Ω l ∼ 0.3 and H 0 ∼ 70 km s -1 Mpc -1 . It is remarkable that different measurements converge to this 'concordance model', although it remains to be seen if the two main components of this model, the dark matter and the dark energy, are real entities or just 'epicycles'. We point out some open questions related to this fashionable model

  1. A model of spreading of sudden events on social networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Jiao; Zheng, Muhua; Zhang, Zi-Ke; Wang, Wei; Gu, Changgui; Liu, Zonghua

    2018-03-01

    Information spreading has been studied for decades, but its underlying mechanism is still under debate, especially for those ones spreading extremely fast through the Internet. By focusing on the information spreading data of six typical events on Sina Weibo, we surprisingly find that the spreading of modern information shows some new features, i.e., either extremely fast or slow, depending on the individual events. To understand its mechanism, we present a susceptible-accepted-recovered model with both information sensitivity and social reinforcement. Numerical simulations show that the model can reproduce the main spreading patterns of the six typical events. By this model, we further reveal that the spreading can be speeded up by increasing either the strength of information sensitivity or social reinforcement. Depending on the transmission probability and information sensitivity, the final accepted size can change from continuous to discontinuous transition when the strength of the social reinforcement is large. Moreover, an edge-based compartmental theory is presented to explain the numerical results. These findings may be of significance on the control of information spreading in modern society.

  2. Concurrency Models with Causality and Events as Psi-calculi

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Håkon Normann

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Psi-calculi are a parametric framework for nominal calculi, where standard calculi are found as instances, like the pi-calculus, or the cryptographic spi-calculus and applied-pi. Psi-calculi have an interleaving operational semantics, with a strong foundation on the theory of nominal sets and process algebras. Much of the expressive power of psi-calculi comes from their logical part, i.e., assertions, conditions, and entailment, which are left quite open thus accommodating a wide range of logics. We are interested in how this expressiveness can deal with event-based models of concurrency. We thus take the popular prime event structures model and give an encoding into an instance of psi-calculi. We also take the recent and expressive model of Dynamic Condition Response Graphs (in which event structures are strictly included and give an encoding into another corresponding instance of psi-calculi. The encodings that we achieve look rather natural and intuitive. Additional results about these encodings give us more confidence in their correctness.

  3. Dynamic vegetation modeling of tropical biomes during Heinrich events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Handiani, Dian Noor; Paul, André; Dupont, Lydie M.

    2010-05-01

    Heinrich events are thought to be associated with a slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), which in turn would lead to a cooling of the North Atlantic Ocean and a warming of the South Atlantic Ocean (the "bipolar seesaw" hypothesis). The accompanying abrupt climate changes occurred not only in the ocean but also on the continents. Changes were strongest in the Northern Hemisphere but were registered in the tropics as well. Pollen data from Angola and Brazil showed that climate changes during Heinrich events affected vegetation patterns very differently in eastern South America and western Africa. To understand the differential response in the terrestrial tropics, we studied the vegetation changes during Heinrich events by using a dynamic global vegetation model (TRIFFID) as part of the University of Victoria (UVic) Earth System-Climate Model (ESCM). The model results show a bipolar seesaw pattern in temperature and precipitation during a near-collapse of the AMOC. The succession in plant-functional types (PFTs) showed changes from forest to shrubs to desert, including spreading desert in northwest Africa, retreating broadleaf trees in West Africa and northern South America, but advancing broadleaf trees in Brazil. The pattern is explained by a southward shift of the tropical rainbelt resulting in a strong decrease in precipitation over northwest and West Africa as well as in northern South America, but an increase in precipitation in eastern Brazil. To facilitate the comparison between modeled vegetation results with pollen data, we diagnosed the distribution of biomes from the PFT coverage and the simulated model climate. The biome distribution was computed for Heinrich event 1 and the Last Glacial Maximum as well as for pre-industrial conditions. We used a classification of biomes in terms of "mega-biomes", which were defined following a scheme originally proposed by BIOME 6000 (v 4.2). The biome distribution of the Sahel region

  4. The Event Coordination Notation: Behaviour Modelling Beyond Mickey Mouse

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jepsen, Jesper; Kindler, Ekkart

    2015-01-01

    The Event Coordination Notation (ECNO) allows modelling the desired behaviour of a software system on top of any object-oriented software. Together with existing technologies from Model-based Software Engineering (MBSE) for automatically generating the software for the structural parts, ECNO allows...... special aspect of ECNO or another; and it would be fair to call them “Mickey Mouse examples”. In this paper, we give a concise overview of the motivation, ideas, and concepts of ECNO. More importantly, we discuss a larger system, which was completely generated from the underlying models: a workflow...... management system. This way, we demonstrate that ECNO can be used for modelling software beyond the typical Mickey Mouse examples. This example demonstrates that the essence of workflow management – including its behaviour – can be captured in ECNO: in a sense, it is a domain model of workflow management...

  5. Sensitivity of a Simulated Derecho Event to Model Initial Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Wei

    2014-05-01

    Since 2003, the MMM division at NCAR has been experimenting cloud-permitting scale weather forecasting using Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Over the years, we've tested different model physics, and tried different initial and boundary conditions. Not surprisingly, we found that the model's forecasts are more sensitive to the initial conditions than model physics. In 2012 real-time experiment, WRF-DART (Data Assimilation Research Testbed) at 15 km was employed to produce initial conditions for twice-a-day forecast at 3 km. On June 29, this forecast system captured one of the most destructive derecho event on record. In this presentation, we will examine forecast sensitivity to different model initial conditions, and try to understand the important features that may contribute to the success of the forecast.

  6. Observational Constraints for Modeling Diffuse Molecular Clouds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Federman, S. R.

    2014-02-01

    Ground-based and space-borne observations of diffuse molecular clouds suggest a number of areas where further improvements to modeling efforts is warranted. I will highlight those that have the widest applicability. The range in CO fractionation caused by selective isotope photodissociation, in particular the large 12C16O/13C16O ratios observed toward stars in Ophiuchus, is not reproduced well by current models. Our ongoing laboratory measurements of oscillator strengths and predissociation rates for Rydberg transitions in CO isotopologues may help clarify the situtation. The CH+ abundance continues to draw attention. Small scale structure seen toward ζ Per may provide additional constraints on the possible synthesis routes. The connection between results from optical transitions and those from radio and sub-millimeter wave transitions requires further effort. A study of OH+ and OH toward background stars reveals that these species favor different environments. This brings to focus the need to model each cloud along the line of sight separately, and to allow the physical conditions to vary within an individual cloud, in order to gain further insight into the chemistry. Now that an extensive set of data on molecular excitation is available, the models should seek to reproduce these data to place further constraints on the modeling results.

  7. ENERGETIC PARTICLE OBSERVATIONS AND PROPAGATION IN THE THREE-DIMENSIONAL HELIOSPHERE DURING THE 2006 DECEMBER EVENTS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Malandraki, O. E.; Marsden, R. G.; Tranquille, C.; Lario, D.; Heber, B.; Mewaldt, R. A.; Cohen, C. M. S.; Lanzerotti, L. J.; Forsyth, R. J.; Elliott, H. A.; Vogiatzis, I. I.; Geranios, A.

    2009-01-01

    We report observations of solar energetic particles obtained by the HI-SCALE and COSPIN/LET instruments onboard Ulysses during the period of isolated but intense solar activity in 2006 December, in the declining phase of the solar activity cycle. We present measurements of particle intensities and also discuss observations of particle anisotropies and composition in selected energy ranges. Active Region 10930 produced a series of major solar flares with the strongest one (X9.0) recorded on December 5 after it rotated into view on the solar east limb. Located over the South Pole of the Sun, at >72 0 S heliographic latitude and 2.8 AU radial distance, Ulysses provided unique measurements for assessing the nature of particle propagation to high latitudes under near-minimum solar activity conditions, in a relatively undisturbed heliosphere. The observations seem to exclude the possibility that magnetic field lines originating at low latitudes reached Ulysses, suggesting either that the energetic particles observed as large solar energetic particle (SEP) events over the South Pole of the Sun in 2006 December were released when propagating coronal waves reached high-latitude field lines connected to Ulysses, or underwent perpendicular diffusion. We also discuss comparisons with energetic particle data acquired by the STEREO and Advanced Composition Explorer in the ecliptic plane near 1 AU during this period.

  8. Evaluation of CNN as anthropomorphic model observer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Massanes, Francesc; Brankov, Jovan G.

    2017-03-01

    Model observers (MO) are widely used in medical imaging to act as surrogates of human observers in task-based image quality evaluation, frequently towards optimization of reconstruction algorithms. In this paper, we explore the use of convolutional neural networks (CNN) to be used as MO. We will compare CNN MO to alternative MO currently being proposed and used such as the relevance vector machine based MO and channelized Hotelling observer (CHO). As the success of the CNN, and other deep learning approaches, is rooted in large data sets availability, which is rarely the case in medical imaging systems task-performance evaluation, we will evaluate CNN performance on both large and small training data sets.

  9. Modeling extreme (Carrington-type) space weather events using three-dimensional MHD code simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ngwira, C. M.; Pulkkinen, A. A.; Kuznetsova, M. M.; Glocer, A.

    2013-12-01

    There is growing concern over possible severe societal consequences related to adverse space weather impacts on man-made technological infrastructure and systems. In the last two decades, significant progress has been made towards the modeling of space weather events. Three-dimensional (3-D) global magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) models have been at the forefront of this transition, and have played a critical role in advancing our understanding of space weather. However, the modeling of extreme space weather events is still a major challenge even for existing global MHD models. In this study, we introduce a specially adapted University of Michigan 3-D global MHD model for simulating extreme space weather events that have a ground footprint comparable (or larger) to the Carrington superstorm. Results are presented for an initial simulation run with ``very extreme'' constructed/idealized solar wind boundary conditions driving the magnetosphere. In particular, we describe the reaction of the magnetosphere-ionosphere system and the associated ground induced geoelectric field to such extreme driving conditions. We also discuss the results and what they might mean for the accuracy of the simulations. The model is further tested using input data for an observed space weather event to verify the MHD model consistence and to draw guidance for future work. This extreme space weather MHD model is designed specifically for practical application to the modeling of extreme geomagnetically induced electric fields, which can drive large currents in earth conductors such as power transmission grids.

  10. Chemical event chain model of coupled genetic oscillators.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jörg, David J; Morelli, Luis G; Jülicher, Frank

    2018-03-01

    We introduce a stochastic model of coupled genetic oscillators in which chains of chemical events involved in gene regulation and expression are represented as sequences of Poisson processes. We characterize steady states by their frequency, their quality factor, and their synchrony by the oscillator cross correlation. The steady state is determined by coupling and exhibits stochastic transitions between different modes. The interplay of stochasticity and nonlinearity leads to isolated regions in parameter space in which the coupled system works best as a biological pacemaker. Key features of the stochastic oscillations can be captured by an effective model for phase oscillators that are coupled by signals with distributed delays.

  11. Chemical event chain model of coupled genetic oscillators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jörg, David J.; Morelli, Luis G.; Jülicher, Frank

    2018-03-01

    We introduce a stochastic model of coupled genetic oscillators in which chains of chemical events involved in gene regulation and expression are represented as sequences of Poisson processes. We characterize steady states by their frequency, their quality factor, and their synchrony by the oscillator cross correlation. The steady state is determined by coupling and exhibits stochastic transitions between different modes. The interplay of stochasticity and nonlinearity leads to isolated regions in parameter space in which the coupled system works best as a biological pacemaker. Key features of the stochastic oscillations can be captured by an effective model for phase oscillators that are coupled by signals with distributed delays.

  12. Linking Geomechanical Models with Observations of Microseismicity during CCS Operations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verdon, J.; Kendall, J.; White, D.

    2012-12-01

    During CO2 injection for the purposes of carbon capture and storage (CCS), injection-induced fracturing of the overburden represents a key risk to storage integrity. Fractures in a caprock provide a pathway along which buoyant CO2 can rise and escape the storage zone. Therefore the ability to link field-scale geomechanical models with field geophysical observations is of paramount importance to guarantee secure CO2 storage. Accurate location of microseismic events identifies where brittle failure has occurred on fracture planes. This is a manifestation of the deformation induced by CO2 injection. As the pore pressure is increased during injection, effective stress is decreased, leading to inflation of the reservoir and deformation of surrounding rocks, which creates microseismicity. The deformation induced by injection can be simulated using finite-element mechanical models. Such a model can be used to predict when and where microseismicity is expected to occur. However, typical elements in a field scale mechanical models have decameter scales, while the rupture size for microseismic events are typically of the order of 1 square meter. This means that mapping modeled stress changes to predictions of microseismic activity can be challenging. Where larger scale faults have been identified, they can be included explicitly in the geomechanical model. Where movement is simulated along these discrete features, it can be assumed that microseismicity will occur. However, microseismic events typically occur on fracture networks that are too small to be simulated explicitly in a field-scale model. Therefore, the likelihood of microseismicity occurring must be estimated within a finite element that does not contain explicitly modeled discontinuities. This can be done in a number of ways, including the utilization of measures such as closeness on the stress state to predetermined failure criteria, either for planes with a defined orientation (the Mohr-Coulomb criteria) for

  13. Modeling and interpretation of line observations*

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kamp Inga

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Models for the interpretation of line observations from protoplanetary disks are summarized. The spectrum ranges from 1D LTE slab models to 2D thermo-chemical radiative transfer models and their use depends largely on the type/nature of observational data that is analyzed. I discuss the various types of observational data and their interpretation in the context of disk physical and chemical properties. The most simple spatially and spectral unresolved data are line fluxes, which can be interpreted using so-called Boltzmann diagrams. The interpretation is often tricky due to optical depth and non-LTE effects and requires care. Line profiles contain kinematic information and thus indirectly the spatial origin of the emission. Using series of line profiles, we can for example deduce radial temperature gradients in disks (CO pure rotational ladder. Spectro-astrometry of e.g. CO ro-vibrational line profiles probes the disk structure in the 1–30 AU region, where planet formation through core accretion should be most efficient. Spatially and spectrally resolved line images from (submm interferometers are the richest datasets we have to date and they enable us to unravel exciting details of the radial and vertical disk structure such as winds and asymmetries.

  14. Observation of the Higgs particle in gamma-gamma events and search for the Higgs particle in Z-gamma events at ATLAS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu, K.

    2014-01-01

    This thesis focuses on the searches for the Higgs boson in events with photons in the final states, using the full proton-proton collision data collected by ATLAS at √(s)=7 and 8 TeV in 2011 and 2012. Higgs boson decays to photon pairs or to a photon and a Z boson decaying to di-electrons or di-muons are investigated. The event selection, the main backgrounds, the signal properties, and the statistical discrimination between the signal and background in data and the interpretation of the results in terms of a Standard Model Higgs boson are discussed. In the H → γγ channel a clear excess over the background is seen at a mass of m H =[126.8±0.2(stat)±0.7(syst)] GeV, with a local significance of 7.4 σ. In the rare decay channel H → Zγ no evidence of excess over the background is observed in the mass range 120-150 GeV, and, for a Higgs boson mass near the one obtained from the combined mass measurement in the γγ and 4-lepton final states, m H =125.5 GeV, an upper limit of 11 times the Standard Model prediction, at 95% confidence level, is set on the production cross section times the H → Zγ cross section. One of the most important ingredient for these measurements is the efficient reconstruction and identification of photons, and a precise knowledge of the trigger and identification performance. A significant part of the document is thus devoted to the photon performance optimisation and measurement activities that I carried on in the past three years. (author)

  15. Event-based soil loss models for construction sites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trenouth, William R.; Gharabaghi, Bahram

    2015-05-01

    The elevated rates of soil erosion stemming from land clearing and grading activities during urban development, can result in excessive amounts of eroded sediments entering waterways and causing harm to the biota living therein. However, construction site event-based soil loss simulations - required for reliable design of erosion and sediment controls - are one of the most uncertain types of hydrologic models. This study presents models with improved degree of accuracy to advance the design of erosion and sediment controls for construction sites. The new models are developed using multiple linear regression (MLR) on event-based permutations of the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) and artificial neural networks (ANN). These models were developed using surface runoff monitoring datasets obtained from three sites - Greensborough, Cookstown, and Alcona - in Ontario and datasets mined from the literature for three additional sites - Treynor, Iowa, Coshocton, Ohio and Cordoba, Spain. The predictive MLR and ANN models can serve as both diagnostic and design tools for the effective sizing of erosion and sediment controls on active construction sites, and can be used for dynamic scenario forecasting when considering rapidly changing land use conditions during various phases of construction.

  16. Type I supernova models vs observations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weaver, T.A.; Axelrod, T.S.; Woosley, S.E.

    1980-01-01

    This paper explores tHe observational consequences of models for Type I supernovae based on the detonation (or deflagration) of the degenerate cores of white dwarfs or intermediate mass (approx. = 9 M/sub sun/) stars. Such nuclear burning can be initiated either at the center of the core or near its edge. The model examined in most detail is that of a 0.5M/sub sun/ C/O white dwarf which undergoes an edge-lit He/C/O detonation after accreting 0.62 M/sub sun/ of he at 10 -8 M/sub sun//yr. The light curve resulting from this model is found to be in excellent agreement with those observed for Type I supernovae, particularly those in the fast subclass. The physical processes involved in the detailed numerical calculations which lead to this conclusion are quantitatively elucidated by simple analytic models, and effects of uncertainties in the input physics are explored

  17. INTERVAL OBSERVER FOR A BIOLOGICAL REACTOR MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. A. Kharkovskaia

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available The method of an interval observer design for nonlinear systems with parametric uncertainties is considered. The interval observer synthesis problem for systems with varying parameters consists in the following. If there is the uncertainty restraint for the state values of the system, limiting the initial conditions of the system and the set of admissible values for the vector of unknown parameters and inputs, the interval existence condition for the estimations of the system state variables, containing the actual state at a given time, needs to be held valid over the whole considered time segment as well. Conditions of the interval observers design for the considered class of systems are shown. They are: limitation of the input and state, the existence of a majorizing function defining the uncertainty vector for the system, Lipschitz continuity or finiteness of this function, the existence of an observer gain with the suitable Lyapunov matrix. The main condition for design of such a device is cooperativity of the interval estimation error dynamics. An individual observer gain matrix selection problem is considered. In order to ensure the property of cooperativity for interval estimation error dynamics, a static transformation of coordinates is proposed. The proposed algorithm is demonstrated by computer modeling of the biological reactor. Possible applications of these interval estimation systems are the spheres of robust control, where the presence of various types of uncertainties in the system dynamics is assumed, biotechnology and environmental systems and processes, mechatronics and robotics, etc.

  18. Grid Frequency Extreme Event Analysis and Modeling: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Florita, Anthony R [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Clark, Kara [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Gevorgian, Vahan [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Folgueras, Maria [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Wenger, Erin [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2017-11-01

    Sudden losses of generation or load can lead to instantaneous changes in electric grid frequency and voltage. Extreme frequency events pose a major threat to grid stability. As renewable energy sources supply power to grids in increasing proportions, it becomes increasingly important to examine when and why extreme events occur to prevent destabilization of the grid. To better understand frequency events, including extrema, historic data were analyzed to fit probability distribution functions to various frequency metrics. Results showed that a standard Cauchy distribution fit the difference between the frequency nadir and prefault frequency (f_(C-A)) metric well, a standard Cauchy distribution fit the settling frequency (f_B) metric well, and a standard normal distribution fit the difference between the settling frequency and frequency nadir (f_(B-C)) metric very well. Results were inconclusive for the frequency nadir (f_C) metric, meaning it likely has a more complex distribution than those tested. This probabilistic modeling should facilitate more realistic modeling of grid faults.

  19. A universe model confronted to observations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Souriau, J.M.

    1982-09-01

    Present work is a detailed study of a Universe model elaborated in several steps, and some of its consequences. Absence zone in quasar spatial distribution is first described; demonstration is made it is sufficient to determine a cosmological model. Each following paragraph is concerned with a type of observation, which is confronted with the model. Universe age and density, redshift-luminosity relation for galaxies and quasars, diameter-redshift relation for radiosources, radiation isotropy at 3 0 K, matter-antimatter contact zone physics. An eventual stratification of universe parallel to this zone is more peculiarly studied; absorption lines in quasar spectra are in way interpreted, just as local super-cluster and local group of galaxies, galaxy HI region orientation, and at last neighbouring galaxy kinematics [fr

  20. Dark energy observational evidence and theoretical models

    CERN Document Server

    Novosyadlyj, B; Shtanov, Yu; Zhuk, A

    2013-01-01

    The book elucidates the current state of the dark energy problem and presents the results of the authors, who work in this area. It describes the observational evidence for the existence of dark energy, the methods and results of constraining of its parameters, modeling of dark energy by scalar fields, the space-times with extra spatial dimensions, especially Kaluza---Klein models, the braneworld models with a single extra dimension as well as the problems of positive definition of gravitational energy in General Relativity, energy conditions and consequences of their violation in the presence of dark energy. This monograph is intended for science professionals, educators and graduate students, specializing in general relativity, cosmology, field theory and particle physics.

  1. Formal Analysis of BPMN Models Using Event-B

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bryans, Jeremy W.; Wei, Wei

    The use of business process models has gone far beyond documentation purposes. In the development of business applications, they can play the role of an artifact on which high level properties can be verified and design errors can be revealed in an effort to reduce overhead at later software development and diagnosis stages. This paper demonstrates how formal verification may add value to the specification, design and development of business process models in an industrial setting. The analysis of these models is achieved via an algorithmic translation from the de-facto standard business process modeling language BPMN to Event-B, a widely used formal language supported by the Rodin platform which offers a range of simulation and verification technologies.

  2. Dynamic sensing model for accurate delectability of environmental phenomena using event wireless sensor network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Missif, Lial Raja; Kadhum, Mohammad M.

    2017-09-01

    Wireless Sensor Network (WSN) has been widely used for monitoring where sensors are deployed to operate independently to sense abnormal phenomena. Most of the proposed environmental monitoring systems are designed based on a predetermined sensing range which does not reflect the sensor reliability, event characteristics, and the environment conditions. Measuring of the capability of a sensor node to accurately detect an event within a sensing field is of great important for monitoring applications. This paper presents an efficient mechanism for even detection based on probabilistic sensing model. Different models have been presented theoretically in this paper to examine their adaptability and applicability to the real environment applications. The numerical results of the experimental evaluation have showed that the probabilistic sensing model provides accurate observation and delectability of an event, and it can be utilized for different environment scenarios.

  3. Comprehensive Assessment of Models and Events based on Library tools (CAMEL)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rastaetter, L.; Boblitt, J. M.; DeZeeuw, D.; Mays, M. L.; Kuznetsova, M. M.; Wiegand, C.

    2017-12-01

    At the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC), the assessment of modeling skill using a library of model-data comparison metrics is taken to the next level by fully integrating the ability to request a series of runs with the same model parameters for a list of events. The CAMEL framework initiates and runs a series of selected, pre-defined simulation settings for participating models (e.g., WSA-ENLIL, SWMF-SC+IH for the heliosphere, SWMF-GM, OpenGGCM, LFM, GUMICS for the magnetosphere) and performs post-processing using existing tools for a host of different output parameters. The framework compares the resulting time series data with respective observational data and computes a suite of metrics such as Prediction Efficiency, Root Mean Square Error, Probability of Detection, Probability of False Detection, Heidke Skill Score for each model-data pair. The system then plots scores by event and aggregated over all events for all participating models and run settings. We are building on past experiences with model-data comparisons of magnetosphere and ionosphere model outputs in GEM2008, GEM-CEDAR CETI2010 and Operational Space Weather Model challenges (2010-2013). We can apply the framework also to solar-heliosphere as well as radiation belt models. The CAMEL framework takes advantage of model simulations described with Space Physics Archive Search and Extract (SPASE) metadata and a database backend design developed for a next-generation Run-on-Request system at the CCMC.

  4. Energetic atomic and molecular ions of ionospheric origin observed in distant magnetotail flow-reversal events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christon, S. P.; Gloeckler, G.; Williams, D. J.; Mukai, T.; Mcentire, R. W.; Jacquey, C.; Angelopoulos, V.; Lui, A. T. Y.; Kokubun, S.; Fairfield, D. H.

    1994-01-01

    Energetic atomic (O(+1) and N(+1)) and molecular (O2(+1), NO(+1), and N2(+1)) ions of ionospheric origin were observed in Earth's magnetotail at X approximately -146 R(sub E) during two plasma sheet sunward/tailward flow-reversal events measured by instruments on the GEOTAIL spacecraft. These events were associated with concurrent ground-measured geomagnetic disturbance intensification at auroral-and mid-latitudes (Kp = 7(-)). Energetic ions in the sunward-component and tailward flows were from both the solar wind and ionosphere. Plasma and energetic ions participated in the flows. During tailward flow, ionospheric origin ion abundance ratios at approximately 200-900 km/s in the rest frame were N(+1)/O(+1) = approximately 25-30% and ((O2(+1), NO(+1), and N2(+1))/O(+1) = approximately 1-2%. We argue that tailward flow most likely initiated approximately 80-100 R(sub E) tailward of Earth and molecular ions were in the plasma sheet prior to geomagnetic intensification onset.

  5. Observing a fictitious stressful event: haematological changes, including circulating leukocyte activation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mian, Rubina; Shelton-Rayner, Graham; Harkin, Brendan; Williams, Paul

    2003-03-01

    The aim of this study was to assess the effect of watching a psychological stressful event on the activation of leukocytes in healthy human volunteers. Blood samples were obtained from 32 healthy male and female subjects aged between 20 and 26 years before, during and after either watching an 83-minute horror film that none of the subjects had previously seen (The Texas Chainsaw Massacre, 1974) or by sitting quietly in a room (control group). Total differential cell counts, leukocyte activation as measured by the nitroblue tetrazolium (NBT) test, heart rate and blood pressure (BP) measurements were taken at defined time points. There were significant increases in peripheral circulating leukocytes, the number of activated circulating leukocytes, haemoglobin (Hb) concentration and haematocrit (Hct) in response to the stressor. These were accompanied by significant increases in heart rate, systolic and diastolic BP (P<0.05 from baseline). This is the first reported study on the effects of observing a psychologically stressful, albeit fictitious event on circulating leukocyte numbers and the state of leukocyte activation as determined by the nitrotetrazolium test.

  6. Assessing distractors and teamwork during surgery: developing an event-based method for direct observation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seelandt, Julia C; Tschan, Franziska; Keller, Sandra; Beldi, Guido; Jenni, Nadja; Kurmann, Anita; Candinas, Daniel; Semmer, Norbert K

    2014-11-01

    To develop a behavioural observation method to simultaneously assess distractors and communication/teamwork during surgical procedures through direct, on-site observations; to establish the reliability of the method for long (>3 h) procedures. Observational categories for an event-based coding system were developed based on expert interviews, observations and a literature review. Using Cohen's κ and the intraclass correlation coefficient, interobserver agreement was assessed for 29 procedures. Agreement was calculated for the entire surgery, and for the 1st hour. In addition, interobserver agreement was assessed between two tired observers and between a tired and a non-tired observer after 3 h of surgery. The observational system has five codes for distractors (door openings, noise distractors, technical distractors, side conversations and interruptions), eight codes for communication/teamwork (case-relevant communication, teaching, leadership, problem solving, case-irrelevant communication, laughter, tension and communication with external visitors) and five contextual codes (incision, last stitch, personnel changes in the sterile team, location changes around the table and incidents). Based on 5-min intervals, Cohen's κ was good to excellent for distractors (0.74-0.98) and for communication/teamwork (0.70-1). Based on frequency counts, intraclass correlation coefficient was excellent for distractors (0.86-0.99) and good to excellent for communication/teamwork (0.45-0.99). After 3 h of surgery, Cohen's κ was 0.78-0.93 for distractors, and 0.79-1 for communication/teamwork. The observational method developed allows a single observer to simultaneously assess distractors and communication/teamwork. Even for long procedures, high interobserver agreement can be achieved. Data collected with this method allow for investigating separate or combined effects of distractions and communication/teamwork on surgical performance and patient outcomes. Published by the

  7. Fault diagnosis for discrete event systems: Modelling and verification

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Simeu-Abazi, Zineb; Di Mascolo, Maria; Knotek, Michal

    2010-01-01

    This paper proposes an effective way for diagnosis of discrete-event systems using a timed-automaton. It is based on the model-checking technique, thanks to time analysis of the timed model. The paper proposes a method to construct all the timed models and details the different steps used to obtain the diagnosis path. A dynamic model with temporal transitions is proposed in order to model the system. By 'dynamical model', we mean an extension of timed automata for which the faulty states are identified. The model of the studied system contains the faultless functioning states and all the faulty states. Our method is based on the backward exploitation of the dynamic model, where all possible reverse paths are searched. The reverse path is the connection of the faulty state to the initial state. The diagnosis method is based on the coherence between the faulty occurrence time and the reverse path length. A real-world batch process is used to demonstrate the modelling steps and the proposed backward time analysis method to reach the diagnosis results.

  8. Joint Models of Longitudinal and Time-to-Event Data with More Than One Event Time Outcome: A Review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hickey, Graeme L; Philipson, Pete; Jorgensen, Andrea; Kolamunnage-Dona, Ruwanthi

    2018-01-31

    Methodological development and clinical application of joint models of longitudinal and time-to-event outcomes have grown substantially over the past two decades. However, much of this research has concentrated on a single longitudinal outcome and a single event time outcome. In clinical and public health research, patients who are followed up over time may often experience multiple, recurrent, or a succession of clinical events. Models that utilise such multivariate event time outcomes are quite valuable in clinical decision-making. We comprehensively review the literature for implementation of joint models involving more than a single event time per subject. We consider the distributional and modelling assumptions, including the association structure, estimation approaches, software implementations, and clinical applications. Research into this area is proving highly promising, but to-date remains in its infancy.

  9. ONSETS AND SPECTRA OF IMPULSIVE SOLAR ENERGETIC ELECTRON EVENTS OBSERVED NEAR THE EARTH

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kontar, Eduard P.; Reid, Hamish A. S.

    2009-01-01

    Impulsive solar energetic electrons are often observed in the interplanetary space near the Earth and have an attractive diagnostic potential for poorly understood solar flare acceleration processes. We investigate the transport of solar flare energetic electrons in the heliospheric plasma to understand the role of transport to the observed onset and spectral properties of the impulsive solar electron events. The propagation of energetic electrons in solar wind plasma is simulated from the acceleration region at the Sun to the Earth, taking into account self-consistent generation and absorption of electrostatic electron plasma (Langmuir) waves, effects of nonuniform plasma, collisions, and Landau damping. The simulations suggest that the beam-driven plasma turbulence and the effects of solar wind density inhomogeneity play a crucial role and lead to the appearance of (1) a spectral break for a single power-law injected electron spectrum, with the spectrum flatter below the break, (2) apparent early onset of low-energy electron injection, and (3) the apparent late maximum of low-energy electron injection. We show that the observed onsets, spectral flattening at low energies, and formation of a break energy at tens of keV is the direct manifestation of wave-particle interactions in nonuniform plasma of a single accelerated electron population with an initial power-law spectrum.

  10. SDSS-IV MaNGA: A Serendipitous Observation of a Potential Gas Accretion Event

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheung, Edmond; Stark, David V.; Huang, Song; Rubin, Kate H. R.; Lin, Lihwai; Tremonti, Christy; Zhang, Kai; Yan, Renbin; Bizyaev, Dmitry; Boquien, Médéric; Brownstein, Joel R.; Drory, Niv; Gelfand, Joseph D.; Knapen, Johan H.; Maiolino, Roberto; Malanushenko, Olena; Masters, Karen L.; Merrifield, Michael R.; Pace, Zach; Pan, Kaike; Riffel, Rogemar A.; Roman-Lopes, Alexandre; Rujopakarn, Wiphu; Schneider, Donald P.; Stott, John P.; Thomas, Daniel; Weijmans, Anne-Marie

    2016-12-01

    The nature of warm, ionized gas outside of galaxies may illuminate several key galaxy evolutionary processes. A serendipitous observation by the MaNGA survey has revealed a large, asymmetric Hα complex with no optical counterpart that extends ≈8″ (≈6.3 kpc) beyond the effective radius of a dusty, starbursting galaxy. This Hα extension is approximately three times the effective radius of the host galaxy and displays a tail-like morphology. We analyze its gas-phase metallicities, gaseous kinematics, and emission-line ratios and discuss whether this Hα extension could be diffuse ionized gas, a gas accretion event, or something else. We find that this warm, ionized gas structure is most consistent with gas accretion through recycled wind material, which could be an important process that regulates the low-mass end of the galaxy stellar mass function.

  11. SDSS-IV MaNGA: A SERENDIPITOUS OBSERVATION OF A POTENTIAL GAS ACCRETION EVENT

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cheung, Edmond; Stark, David V.; Huang, Song; Rubin, Kate H. R.; Lin, Lihwai; Tremonti, Christy; Zhang, Kai; Yan, Renbin; Bizyaev, Dmitry; Malanushenko, Olena; Boquien, Médéric; Brownstein, Joel R.; Drory, Niv; Gelfand, Joseph D.; Knapen, Johan H.; Maiolino, Roberto; Masters, Karen L.

    2016-01-01

    The nature of warm, ionized gas outside of galaxies may illuminate several key galaxy evolutionary processes. A serendipitous observation by the MaNGA survey has revealed a large, asymmetric H α complex with no optical counterpart that extends ≈8″ (≈6.3 kpc) beyond the effective radius of a dusty, starbursting galaxy. This H α extension is approximately three times the effective radius of the host galaxy and displays a tail-like morphology. We analyze its gas-phase metallicities, gaseous kinematics, and emission-line ratios and discuss whether this H α extension could be diffuse ionized gas, a gas accretion event, or something else. We find that this warm, ionized gas structure is most consistent with gas accretion through recycled wind material, which could be an important process that regulates the low-mass end of the galaxy stellar mass function.

  12. The Substructure of a Flux Transfer Event Observed by the MMS Spacecraft

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hwang, K.-J.; Sibeck, D. G.; Giles, B. L.; Pollock, C. J.; Gershman, D.; Avanov, L.; Paterson, W. R.; Dorelli, J. C.; Ergun, R. E.; Russel, C. T.; hide

    2016-01-01

    On 15 August 2015, MMS (Magnetospheric Multiscale mission), skimming the dusk magnetopause, detected an isolated region of an increased magnetic strength and bipolar Bn, indicating a flux transfer event (FTE). The four spacecraft in a tetrahedron allowed for investigations of the shape and motion of the FTE. In particular, high-resolution particle data facilitated our exploration of FTE substructures and their magnetic connectivity inside and surrounding the FTE. Combined field and plasma observations suggest that the core fields are open, magnetically connected to the northern magnetosphere from which high-energy particles leak; ion "D" distributions characterize the axis of flux ropes that carry old-opened field lines; counter streaming electrons superposed by parallel-heated components populate the periphery surrounding the FTE; and the interface between the core and draped regions contains a separatrix of newlyopened magnetic field lines that emanate from the X line above the FTE.

  13. Magnetospheric Multiscale (MMS) Observations of Energetic Ion Response to Magnetotail Dipolarization Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohen, I. J.; Mauk, B.; Anderson, B. J.; Sitnov, M. I.; Motoba, T.; Ohtani, S.; Gkioulidou, M.; Fuselier, S. A.; Giles, B. L.; Strangeway, R. J.; Torbert, R. B.; Burch, J. L.

    2017-12-01

    Observations from the Energetic Ion Spectrometer (EIS) instruments aboard MMS have shown angular (pitch, elevation, azimuthal) asymmetries of energetic (>10s of keV) ions corresponding to dipolarization events in the near-Earth and distant magnetotail. In particular, EIS distinguishes the species composition of these ions (protons, helium, oxygen) and reveals apparent species-based differences in their response. This study presents analysis of the dynamic injection and mass-dependent response of energetic ions that likely result from the kinetic response of the ions to the time-varying electric and magnetic fields associated with injection process. Analysis is focused on discriminating between truly kinetic responses to the dynamics and the features that arise from large gyro-radii particles in the vicinity of strong spatial gradients. The study will focus on EIS measurements and include supplementary data from the FIELDS, FPI, and HPCA instruments.

  14. A twenty-first century California observing network for monitoring extreme weather events

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, A.B.; Anderson, M.L.; Dettinger, M.D.; Ralph, F.M.; Hinojosa, A.; Cayan, D.R.; Hartman, R.K.; Reynolds, D.W.; Johnson, L.E.; Schneider, T.L.; Cifelli, R.; Toth, Z.; Gutman, S.I.; King, C.W.; Gehrke, F.; Johnston, P.E.; Walls, C.; Mann, Dorte; Gottas, D.J.; Coleman, T.

    2013-01-01

    During Northern Hemisphere winters, the West Coast of North America is battered by extratropical storms. The impact of these storms is of paramount concern to California, where aging water supply and flood protection infrastructures are challenged by increased standards for urban flood protection, an unusually variable weather regime, and projections of climate change. Additionally, there are inherent conflicts between releasing water to provide flood protection and storing water to meet requirements for water supply, water quality, hydropower generation, water temperature and flow for at-risk species, and recreation. In order to improve reservoir management and meet the increasing demands on water, improved forecasts of precipitation, especially during extreme events, is required. Here we describe how California is addressing their most important and costliest environmental issue – water management – in part, by installing a state-of-the-art observing system to better track the area’s most severe wintertime storms.

  15. SDSS-IV MaNGA: A SERENDIPITOUS OBSERVATION OF A POTENTIAL GAS ACCRETION EVENT

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cheung, Edmond; Stark, David V.; Huang, Song [Kavli Institute for the Physics and Mathematics of the Universe (WPI), The University of Tokyo Institutes for Advanced Study, The University of Tokyo, Kashiwa, Chiba 277-8583 (Japan); Rubin, Kate H. R. [Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, 60 Garden Street, Cambridge, MA 02138 (United States); Lin, Lihwai [Institute of Astronomy and Astrophysics, Academia Sinica, Taipei 106, Taiwan (China); Tremonti, Christy [Department of Astronomy, University of Wisconsin–Madison, 475 North Charter Street, Madison, WI 53706 (United States); Zhang, Kai; Yan, Renbin [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Kentucky, 505 Rose Street, Lexington, KY 40506-0055 (United States); Bizyaev, Dmitry; Malanushenko, Olena [Apache Point Observatory and New Mexico State University, P.O. Box 59, Sunspot, NM, 88349-0059 (United States); Boquien, Médéric [Unidad de Astronomía, Universidad de Antofagasta, Avenida Angamos 601, Antofagasta 1270300 (Chile); Brownstein, Joel R. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Utah, 115 S. 1400 E., Salt Lake City, UT 84112 (United States); Drory, Niv [McDonald Observatory, Department of Astronomy, University of Texas at Austin, 1 University Station, Austin, TX 78712-0259 (United States); Gelfand, Joseph D. [NYU Abu Dhabi, P.O. Box 129188, Abu Dhabi (United Arab Emirates); Knapen, Johan H. [Instituto de Astrofísica de Canarias, E-38205 La Laguna, Tenerife (Spain); Maiolino, Roberto [Cavendish Laboratory, University of Cambridge, 19 J. J. Thomson Avenue, Cambridge CB3 0HE (United Kingdom); Masters, Karen L., E-mail: ec2250@gmail.com [Institute for Cosmology and Gravitation, University of Portsmouth, Dennis Sciama Building, Burnaby Road, Portsmouth PO1 3FX (United Kingdom); and others

    2016-12-01

    The nature of warm, ionized gas outside of galaxies may illuminate several key galaxy evolutionary processes. A serendipitous observation by the MaNGA survey has revealed a large, asymmetric H α complex with no optical counterpart that extends ≈8″ (≈6.3 kpc) beyond the effective radius of a dusty, starbursting galaxy. This H α extension is approximately three times the effective radius of the host galaxy and displays a tail-like morphology. We analyze its gas-phase metallicities, gaseous kinematics, and emission-line ratios and discuss whether this H α extension could be diffuse ionized gas, a gas accretion event, or something else. We find that this warm, ionized gas structure is most consistent with gas accretion through recycled wind material, which could be an important process that regulates the low-mass end of the galaxy stellar mass function.

  16. Ionospheric Data Assimilation and Targeted Observation Strategies: Proof of Concept Analysis in a Geomagnetic Storm Event

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kostelich, Eric; Durazo, Juan; Mahalov, Alex

    2017-11-01

    The dynamics of the ionosphere involve complex interactions between the atmosphere, solar wind, cosmic radiation, and Earth's magnetic field. Geomagnetic storms arising from solar activity can perturb these dynamics sufficiently to disrupt radio and satellite communications. Efforts to predict ``space weather,'' including ionospheric dynamics, require the development of a data assimilation system that combines observing systems with appropriate forecast models. This talk will outline a proof-of-concept targeted observation strategy, consisting of the Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter, coupled with the Thermosphere Ionosphere Electrodynamics Global Circulation Model, to select optimal locations where additional observations can be made to improve short-term ionospheric forecasts. Initial results using data and forecasts from the geomagnetic storm of 26-27 September 2011 will be described. Work supported by the Air Force Office of Scientific Research (Grant Number FA9550-15-1-0096) and by the National Science Foundation (Grant Number DMS-0940314).

  17. Observations and Modelling of the Zodiacal Light

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelsall, T.

    1994-12-01

    The DIRBE instrument on the COBE satellite performed a full-sky survey in ten bands covering the spectral range from 1.25 to 240 microns, and made measurements of the polarization from 1.25 to 3.5 microns. These observations provide a wealth of data on the radiations from the interplanetary dust cloud (IPD). The presentation covers the observations, the model-independent findings, and the results from the extensive efforts of the DIRBE team to model the IPD. Emphasis is placed on describing the importance of correctly accounting for the IPD contribution to the observed-sky signal for the purpose of detecting the cosmic infrared background. (*) The NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) is responsible for the design, development, and operation of the COBE mission. GSFC is also responsible for the development of the analysis software and for the production of the mission data sets. Scientific guidance is provided by the COBE Science Working Group. The COBE program is supported by the Astrophysics Division of NASA's Office of Space Science.

  18. High-cadence observations of spicular-type events on the Sun

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shetye, J.; Doyle, J. G.; Scullion, E.; Nelson, C. J.; Kuridze, D.; Henriques, V.; Woeger, F.; Ray, T.

    2016-05-01

    Context. Chromospheric observations taken at high-cadence and high-spatial resolution show a range of spicule-like features, including Type-I, Type-II (as well as rapid blue-shifted excursions (RBEs) and rapid red-shifted excursions (RREs) which are thought to be on-disk counterparts of Type-II spicules) and those which seem to appear within a few seconds, which if interpreted as flows would imply mass flow velocities in excess of 1000 km s-1. Aims: This article seeks to quantify and study rapidly appearing spicular-type events. We also compare the multi-object multi-frame blind deconvolution (MOMFBD) and speckle reconstruction techniques to understand if these spicules are more favourably observed using a particular technique. Methods: We use spectral imaging observations taken with the CRisp Imaging SpectroPolarimeter (CRISP) on the Swedish 1-m Solar Telescope. Data was sampled at multiple positions within the Hα line profile for both an on-disk and limb location. Results: The data is host to numerous rapidly appearing features which are observed at different locations within the Hα line profile. The feature's durations vary between 10-20 s and lengths around 3500 km. Sometimes, a time delay in their appearance between the blue and red wings of 3-5 s is evident, whereas, sometimes they are near simultaneous. In some instances, features are observed to fade and then re-emerge at the same location several tens of seconds later. Conclusions: We provide the first statistical analysis of these spicules and suggest that these observations can be interpreted as the line-of-sight (LOS) movement of highly dynamic spicules moving in and out of the narrow 60 mÅ transmission filter that is used to observe in different parts of the Hα line profile. The LOS velocity component of the observed fast chromospheric features, manifested as Doppler shifts, are responsible for their appearance in the red and blue wings of Hα line. Additional work involving data at other

  19. Probabilistic delay differential equation modeling of event-related potentials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ostwald, Dirk; Starke, Ludger

    2016-08-01

    "Dynamic causal models" (DCMs) are a promising approach in the analysis of functional neuroimaging data due to their biophysical interpretability and their consolidation of functional-segregative and functional-integrative propositions. In this theoretical note we are concerned with the DCM framework for electroencephalographically recorded event-related potentials (ERP-DCM). Intuitively, ERP-DCM combines deterministic dynamical neural mass models with dipole-based EEG forward models to describe the event-related scalp potential time-series over the entire electrode space. Since its inception, ERP-DCM has been successfully employed to capture the neural underpinnings of a wide range of neurocognitive phenomena. However, in spite of its empirical popularity, the technical literature on ERP-DCM remains somewhat patchy. A number of previous communications have detailed certain aspects of the approach, but no unified and coherent documentation exists. With this technical note, we aim to close this gap and to increase the technical accessibility of ERP-DCM. Specifically, this note makes the following novel contributions: firstly, we provide a unified and coherent review of the mathematical machinery of the latent and forward models constituting ERP-DCM by formulating the approach as a probabilistic latent delay differential equation model. Secondly, we emphasize the probabilistic nature of the model and its variational Bayesian inversion scheme by explicitly deriving the variational free energy function in terms of both the likelihood expectation and variance parameters. Thirdly, we detail and validate the estimation of the model with a special focus on the explicit form of the variational free energy function and introduce a conventional nonlinear optimization scheme for its maximization. Finally, we identify and discuss a number of computational issues which may be addressed in the future development of the approach. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. High resolution modelling of extreme precipitation events in urban areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siemerink, Martijn; Volp, Nicolette; Schuurmans, Wytze; Deckers, Dave

    2015-04-01

    The present day society needs to adjust to the effects of climate change. More extreme weather conditions are expected, which can lead to longer periods of drought, but also to more extreme precipitation events. Urban water systems are not designed for such extreme events. Most sewer systems are not able to drain the excessive storm water, causing urban flooding. This leads to high economic damage. In order to take appropriate measures against extreme urban storms, detailed knowledge about the behaviour of the urban water system above and below the streets is required. To investigate the behaviour of urban water systems during extreme precipitation events new assessment tools are necessary. These tools should provide a detailed and integral description of the flow in the full domain of overland runoff, sewer flow, surface water flow and groundwater flow. We developed a new assessment tool, called 3Di, which provides detailed insight in the urban water system. This tool is based on a new numerical methodology that can accurately deal with the interaction between overland runoff, sewer flow and surface water flow. A one-dimensional model for the sewer system and open channel flow is fully coupled to a two-dimensional depth-averaged model that simulates the overland flow. The tool uses a subgrid-based approach in order to take high resolution information of the sewer system and of the terrain into account [1, 2]. The combination of using the high resolution information and the subgrid based approach results in an accurate and efficient modelling tool. It is now possible to simulate entire urban water systems using extreme high resolution (0.5m x 0.5m) terrain data in combination with a detailed sewer and surface water network representation. The new tool has been tested in several Dutch cities, such as Rotterdam, Amsterdam and The Hague. We will present the results of an extreme precipitation event in the city of Schiedam (The Netherlands). This city deals with

  1. A systematic comparison of recurrent event models for application to composite endpoints.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ozga, Ann-Kathrin; Kieser, Meinhard; Rauch, Geraldine

    2018-01-04

    Many clinical trials focus on the comparison of the treatment effect between two or more groups concerning a rarely occurring event. In this situation, showing a relevant effect with an acceptable power requires the observation of a large number of patients over a long period of time. For feasibility issues, it is therefore often considered to include several event types of interest, non-fatal or fatal, and to combine them within a composite endpoint. Commonly, a composite endpoint is analyzed with standard survival analysis techniques by assessing the time to the first occurring event. This approach neglects that an individual may experience more than one event which leads to a loss of information. As an alternative, composite endpoints could be analyzed by models for recurrent events. There exists a number of such models, e.g. regression models based on count data or Cox-based models such as the approaches of Andersen and Gill, Prentice, Williams and Peterson or, Wei, Lin and Weissfeld. Although some of the methods were already compared within the literature there exists no systematic investigation for the special requirements regarding composite endpoints. Within this work a simulation-based comparison of recurrent event models applied to composite endpoints is provided for different realistic clinical trial scenarios. We demonstrate that the Andersen-Gill model and the Prentice- Williams-Petersen models show similar results under various data scenarios whereas the Wei-Lin-Weissfeld model delivers effect estimators which can considerably deviate under commonly met data scenarios. Based on the conducted simulation study, this paper helps to understand the pros and cons of the investigated methods in the context of composite endpoints and provides therefore recommendations for an adequate statistical analysis strategy and a meaningful interpretation of results.

  2. Modelling magnetic forces during asymmetric vertical displacement events at JET

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Riccardo, V.; Walker, S.; Noll, P.

    2000-01-01

    Asymmetric vertical disruption events (AVDEs) are fortunately rare, but can induce large lateral forces which can cause significant mechanical damage to tokamaks. In this paper we present a simple model which allows the lateral forces generated during such a disruption to be estimated as a function of relatively easily obtained electromagnetic parameters: the asymmetries in the vertical current moment. This model is validated by using it to predict the displacement history of the JET tokamak caused by a number of major AVDEs. It is shown that the predicted forces and displacements agree well with quantities measured during these disruptions. One conclusion from the model is that the maximum sideways displacement scales with the product of the plasma current and the toroidal field, and this recipe is now used at JET to assess a priori the hazards of performing high current and high field pulses when they are known to be likely to disrupt. (author)

  3. Real-time observations of stressful events in the operating room

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    AlNassar Sami

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Aim: To identify and quantify factors causing stress in the operating room (OR and evaluate the relationship between these factors and surgeons′ stress level. Methods: This is a prospective observational study from 32 elective surgical procedures conducted in the OR of King Khalid University Hospital, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. Before each operation, each surgeon was asked of stressors. Two interns observed 16 surgeries each, separately. The interns watched and took notes during the entire surgical procedure. During each operation, the observer recorded anxiety-inducing activities and events that occurred in real time by means of a checklist of 8 potential stressors: technical, patient problems, teamwork problems, time and management issues, distractions and interruptions, equipment problems, personal problems, and teaching. After each operation, surgeons were asked to answer the validated State-Trait Anxiety Inventory questionnaire and self-report on their stress level from the 8 sources using a scale of 1-8 (1: stress free, 8: extremely stressful. The observer also recorded perceived stress levels experienced by the surgeons during the operation. Results: One hundred ten stressors were identified. Technical problems most frequently caused stress (16.4% and personal issues the least often (6.4%. Frequently encountered stressors (teaching and distractions/interruptions caused less stress to the surgeons. Technical factors, teamwork, and equipment problems occurred frequently and were also a major contributor to OR stress. All patients were discharged in good health and within 1 week of surgery. Conclusion: Certain stressful factors do occur among surgeons in the OR and can increase the potential for errors. Further research is required to determine the impact of stress on performance and the outcome of surgery.

  4. Automated identification and modeling aseismic slip events on Kilauea Volcano, Hawaii

    Science.gov (United States)

    Desmarais, E. K.; Segall, P.; Miklius, A.

    2006-12-01

    .5 - 8.5 km, thus constrain the depth of the slow earthquakes to comparable depths. The triggering of microearthquakes implies that there is finite probability that a larger earthquake could be triggered, given appropriate stress conditions. In order to better constrain the locations of the slow slip events based solely on geodetic observations, we expand on the simple uniform slip models by adding the effects of distributed slip, layered elastic structure, and topography. There are many difficulties in observing slow slip events on Kilauea volcano. The GPS network only provides displacements on land, which is primarily to the north of the largest slip. The vertical displacement field is essential to understanding the northward extent of the slip, however, the GPS observations of slow slip events are primarily observed in the horizontal component, which have smaller noise levels (~ 3 mm). The maximum vertical deformation from the largest event (2005) was very small (± 9 mm), about the same size as the typical vertical noise. We are exploring the possibility that tiltmeters will allow sufficiently accurate measurements to help identify the northern extent of the slip surface.

  5. Modelling the interaction between flooding events and economic growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grames, Johanna; Fürnkranz-Prskawetz, Alexia; Grass, Dieter; Viglione, Alberto; Blöschl, Günter

    2016-04-01

    Recently socio-hydrology models have been proposed to analyze the interplay of community risk-coping culture, flooding damage and economic growth. These models descriptively explain the feedbacks between socio-economic development and natural disasters such as floods. Complementary to these descriptive models, we develop a dynamic optimization model, where the inter-temporal decision of an economic agent interacts with the hydrological system. This interdisciplinary approach matches with the goals of Panta Rhei i.e. to understand feedbacks between hydrology and society. It enables new perspectives but also shows limitations of each discipline. Young scientists need mentors from various scientific backgrounds to learn their different research approaches and how to best combine them such that interdisciplinary scientific work is also accepted by different science communities. In our socio-hydrology model we apply a macro-economic decision framework to a long-term flood-scenario. We assume a standard macro-economic growth model where agents derive utility from consumption and output depends on physical capital that can be accumulated through investment. To this framework we add the occurrence of flooding events which will destroy part of the capital. We identify two specific periodic long term solutions and denote them rich and poor economies. Whereas rich economies can afford to invest in flood defense and therefore avoid flood damage and develop high living standards, poor economies prefer consumption instead of investing in flood defense capital and end up facing flood damages every time the water level rises. Nevertheless, they manage to sustain at least a low level of physical capital. We identify optimal investment strategies and compare simulations with more frequent and more intense high water level events.

  6. ALADDIN: a neural model for event classification in dynamic processes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roverso, Davide

    1998-02-01

    ALADDIN is a prototype system which combines fuzzy clustering techniques and artificial neural network (ANN) models in a novel approach to the problem of classifying events in dynamic processes. The main motivation for the development of such a system derived originally from the problem of finding new principled methods to perform alarm structuring/suppression in a nuclear power plant (NPP) alarm system. One such method consists in basing the alarm structuring/suppression on a fast recognition of the event generating the alarms, so that a subset of alarms sufficient to efficiently handle the current fault can be selected to be presented to the operator, minimizing in this way the operator's workload in a potentially stressful situation. The scope of application of a system like ALADDIN goes however beyond alarm handling, to include diagnostic tasks in general. The eventual application of the system to domains other than NPPs was also taken into special consideration during the design phase. In this document we report on the first phase of the ALADDIN project which consisted mainly in a comparative study of a series of ANN-based approaches to event classification, and on the proposal of a first system prototype which is to undergo further tests and, eventually, be integrated in existing alarm, diagnosis, and accident management systems such as CASH, IDS, and CAMS. (author)

  7. A Dynamic Approach to Modeling Dependence Between Human Failure Events

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boring, Ronald Laurids [Idaho National Laboratory

    2015-09-01

    In practice, most HRA methods use direct dependence from THERP—the notion that error be- gets error, and one human failure event (HFE) may increase the likelihood of subsequent HFEs. In this paper, we approach dependence from a simulation perspective in which the effects of human errors are dynamically modeled. There are three key concepts that play into this modeling: (1) Errors are driven by performance shaping factors (PSFs). In this context, the error propagation is not a result of the presence of an HFE yielding overall increases in subsequent HFEs. Rather, it is shared PSFs that cause dependence. (2) PSFs have qualities of lag and latency. These two qualities are not currently considered in HRA methods that use PSFs. Yet, to model the effects of PSFs, it is not simply a matter of identifying the discrete effects of a particular PSF on performance. The effects of PSFs must be considered temporally, as the PSFs will have a range of effects across the event sequence. (3) Finally, there is the concept of error spilling. When PSFs are activated, they not only have temporal effects but also lateral effects on other PSFs, leading to emergent errors. This paper presents the framework for tying together these dynamic dependence concepts.

  8. Control of discrete event systems modeled as hierarchical state machines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brave, Y.; Heymann, M.

    1991-01-01

    The authors examine a class of discrete event systems (DESs) modeled as asynchronous hierarchical state machines (AHSMs). For this class of DESs, they provide an efficient method for testing reachability, which is an essential step in many control synthesis procedures. This method utilizes the asynchronous nature and hierarchical structure of AHSMs, thereby illustrating the advantage of the AHSM representation as compared with its equivalent (flat) state machine representation. An application of the method is presented where an online minimally restrictive solution is proposed for the problem of maintaining a controlled AHSM within prescribed legal bounds.

  9. Detecting Seismic Events Using a Supervised Hidden Markov Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burks, L.; Forrest, R.; Ray, J.; Young, C.

    2017-12-01

    We explore the use of supervised hidden Markov models (HMMs) to detect seismic events in streaming seismogram data. Current methods for seismic event detection include simple triggering algorithms, such as STA/LTA and the Z-statistic, which can lead to large numbers of false positives that must be investigated by an analyst. The hypothesis of this study is that more advanced detection methods, such as HMMs, may decreases false positives while maintaining accuracy similar to current methods. We train a binary HMM classifier using 2 weeks of 3-component waveform data from the International Monitoring System (IMS) that was carefully reviewed by an expert analyst to pick all seismic events. Using an ensemble of simple and discrete features, such as the triggering of STA/LTA, the HMM predicts the time at which transition occurs from noise to signal. Compared to the STA/LTA detection algorithm, the HMM detects more true events, but the false positive rate remains unacceptably high. Future work to potentially decrease the false positive rate may include using continuous features, a Gaussian HMM, and multi-class HMMs to distinguish between types of seismic waves (e.g., P-waves and S-waves). Acknowledgement: Sandia National Laboratories is a multi-mission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology and Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC., a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International, Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA-0003525.SAND No: SAND2017-8154 A

  10. A Method to Quantify Plant Availability and Initiating Event Frequency Using a Large Event Tree, Small Fault Tree Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kee, Ernest J.; Sun, Alice; Rodgers, Shawn; Popova, ElmiraV; Nelson, Paul; Moiseytseva, Vera; Wang, Eric

    2006-01-01

    South Texas Project uses a large fault tree to produce scenarios (minimal cut sets) used in quantification of plant availability and event frequency predictions. On the other hand, the South Texas Project probabilistic risk assessment model uses a large event tree, small fault tree for quantifying core damage and radioactive release frequency predictions. The South Texas Project is converting its availability and event frequency model to use a large event tree, small fault in an effort to streamline application support and to provide additional detail in results. The availability and event frequency model as well as the applications it supports (maintenance and operational risk management, system engineering health assessment, preventive maintenance optimization, and RIAM) are briefly described. A methodology to perform availability modeling in a large event tree, small fault tree framework is described in detail. How the methodology can be used to support South Texas Project maintenance and operations risk management is described in detail. Differences with other fault tree methods and other recently proposed methods are discussed in detail. While the methods described are novel to the South Texas Project Risk Management program and to large event tree, small fault tree models, concepts in the area of application support and availability modeling have wider applicability to the industry. (authors)

  11. Building entity models through observation and learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia, Richard; Kania, Robert; Fields, MaryAnne; Barnes, Laura

    2011-05-01

    To support the missions and tasks of mixed robotic/human teams, future robotic systems will need to adapt to the dynamic behavior of both teammates and opponents. One of the basic elements of this adaptation is the ability to exploit both long and short-term temporal data. This adaptation allows robotic systems to predict/anticipate, as well as influence, future behavior for both opponents and teammates and will afford the system the ability to adjust its own behavior in order to optimize its ability to achieve the mission goals. This work is a preliminary step in the effort to develop online entity behavior models through a combination of learning techniques and observations. As knowledge is extracted from the system through sensor and temporal feedback, agents within the multi-agent system attempt to develop and exploit a basic movement model of an opponent. For the purpose of this work, extraction and exploitation is performed through the use of a discretized two-dimensional game. The game consists of a predetermined number of sentries attempting to keep an unknown intruder agent from penetrating their territory. The sentries utilize temporal data coupled with past opponent observations to hypothesize the probable locations of the opponent and thus optimize their guarding locations.

  12. How to model mutually exclusive events based on independent causal pathways in Bayesian network models

    OpenAIRE

    Fenton, N.; Neil, M.; Lagnado, D.; Marsh, W.; Yet, B.; Constantinou, A.

    2016-01-01

    We show that existing Bayesian network (BN) modelling techniques cannot capture the correct intuitive reasoning in the important case when a set of mutually exclusive events need to be modelled as separate nodes instead of states of a single node. A previously proposed ‘solution’, which introduces a simple constraint node that enforces mutual exclusivity, fails to preserve the prior probabilities of the events, while other proposed solutions involve major changes to the original model. We pro...

  13. Utilizing NASA Earth Observations to detect factors contributing to hypoxic events in the southern Gulf of Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chapman, R.; Johansen, A.; Mitchell, Å. R.; Caraballo Álvarez, I. O.; Taggart, M.; Smith, B.

    2015-12-01

    Monitoring and analyzing harmful algal blooms (HABs) and hypoxic events in the southern coastal areas of the Gulf of Mexico (GoM) is important for watershed management and mitigation of environmental degradation. This study uncovered trends and dynamic characteristics of chlorophyll-a (Chl) concentration, sea surface temperature (SST), colored dissolved organic matter index (CDOM), and photosynthetically available radiation (PAR); as evident in 8-day standard mapped image (SMI) products from the MODIS instrument on the Aqua platform from 2002-2015 using Clark Labs TerrSet Earth Trends Modeler (ETM). Predicted dissolved oxygen images were classified using a Multi-Layer Perceptron regression approach with in-situ data from the northern GoM. Additionally, sediment and nutrient loading values of the Grijalva-Usumacinta watershed were modeled using the ArcGIS Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Lastly, A Turbidity Index was generated using Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) scenes for 2014-2015. Results, tools, and products will assist local environmental and health authorities in revising water quality standards and mitigating the impacts of future HABs and hypoxic events in the region. This project uses NASA's earth observations as a viable alternative to studying a region with no in-situ data.

  14. A Holoinformational Model of the Physical Observer

    Science.gov (United States)

    di Biase, Francisco

    2013-09-01

    The author proposes a holoinformational view of the observer based, on the holonomic theory of brain/mind function and quantum brain dynamics developed by Karl Pribram, Sir John Eccles, R.L. Amoroso, Hameroff, Jibu and Yasue, and in the quantumholographic and holomovement theory of David Bohm. This conceptual framework is integrated with nonlocal information properties of the Quantum Field Theory of Umesawa, with the concept of negentropy, order, and organization developed by Shannon, Wiener, Szilard and Brillouin, and to the theories of self-organization and complexity of Prigogine, Atlan, Jantsch and Kauffman. Wheeler's "it from bit" concept of a participatory universe, and the developments of the physics of information made by Zureck and others with the concepts of statistical entropy and algorithmic entropy, related to the number of bits being processed in the mind of the observer are also considered. This new synthesis gives a self-organizing quantum nonlocal informational basis for a new model of awareness in a participatory universe. In this synthesis, awareness is conceived as meaningful quantum nonlocal information interconnecting the brain and the cosmos, by a holoinformational unified field (integrating nonlocal holistic (quantum) and local (Newtonian). We propose that the cosmology of the physical observer is this unified nonlocal quantum-holographic cosmos manifesting itself through awareness, interconnected in a participatory holistic and indivisible way the human mind-brain to all levels of the self-organizing holographic anthropic multiverse.

  15. Use of satellite and modeled soil moisture data for predicting event soil loss at plot scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Todisco, F.; Brocca, L.; Termite, L. F.; Wagner, W.

    2015-09-01

    The potential of coupling soil moisture and a Universal Soil Loss Equation-based (USLE-based) model for event soil loss estimation at plot scale is carefully investigated at the Masse area, in central Italy. The derived model, named Soil Moisture for Erosion (SM4E), is applied by considering the unavailability of in situ soil moisture measurements, by using the data predicted by a soil water balance model (SWBM) and derived from satellite sensors, i.e., the Advanced SCATterometer (ASCAT). The soil loss estimation accuracy is validated using in situ measurements in which event observations at plot scale are available for the period 2008-2013. The results showed that including soil moisture observations in the event rainfall-runoff erosivity factor of the USLE enhances the capability of the model to account for variations in event soil losses, the soil moisture being an effective alternative to the estimated runoff, in the prediction of the event soil loss at Masse. The agreement between observed and estimated soil losses (through SM4E) is fairly satisfactory with a determination coefficient (log-scale) equal to ~ 0.35 and a root mean square error (RMSE) of ~ 2.8 Mg ha-1. These results are particularly significant for the operational estimation of soil losses. Indeed, currently, soil moisture is a relatively simple measurement at the field scale and remote sensing data are also widely available on a global scale. Through satellite data, there is the potential of applying the SM4E model for large-scale monitoring and quantification of the soil erosion process.

  16. Use of satellite and modelled soil moisture data for predicting event soil loss at plot scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Todisco, F.; Brocca, L.; Termite, L. F.; Wagner, W.

    2015-03-01

    The potential of coupling soil moisture and a~USLE-based model for event soil loss estimation at plot scale is carefully investigated at the Masse area, in Central Italy. The derived model, named Soil Moisture for Erosion (SM4E), is applied by considering the unavailability of in situ soil moisture measurements, by using the data predicted by a soil water balance model (SWBM) and derived from satellite sensors, i.e. the Advanced SCATterometer (ASCAT). The soil loss estimation accuracy is validated using in situ measurements in which event observations at plot scale are available for the period 2008-2013. The results showed that including soil moisture observations in the event rainfall-runoff erosivity factor of the RUSLE/USLE, enhances the capability of the model to account for variations in event soil losses, being the soil moisture an effective alternative to the estimated runoff, in the prediction of the event soil loss at Masse. The agreement between observed and estimated soil losses (through SM4E) is fairly satisfactory with a determination coefficient (log-scale) equal to of ~ 0.35 and a root-mean-square error (RMSE) of ~ 2.8 Mg ha-1. These results are particularly significant for the operational estimation of soil losses. Indeed, currently, soil moisture is a relatively simple measurement at the field scale and remote sensing data are also widely available on a global scale. Through satellite data, there is the potential of applying the SM4E model for large-scale monitoring and quantification of the soil erosion process.

  17. Lagrangian Observations and Modeling of Marine Larvae

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paris, Claire B.; Irisson, Jean-Olivier

    2017-04-01

    Just within the past two decades, studies on the early-life history stages of marine organisms have led to new paradigms in population dynamics. Unlike passive plant seeds that are transported by the wind or by animals, marine larvae have motor and sensory capabilities. As a result, marine larvae have a tremendous capacity to actively influence their dispersal. This is continuously revealed as we develop new techniques to observe larvae in their natural environment and begin to understand their ability to detect cues throughout ontogeny, process the information, and use it to ride ocean currents and navigate their way back home, or to a place like home. We present innovative in situ and numerical modeling approaches developed to understand the underlying mechanisms of larval transport in the ocean. We describe a novel concept of a Lagrangian platform, the Drifting In Situ Chamber (DISC), designed to observe and quantify complex larval behaviors and their interactions with the pelagic environment. We give a brief history of larval ecology research with the DISC, showing that swimming is directional in most species, guided by cues as diverse as the position of the sun or the underwater soundscape, and even that (unlike humans!) larvae orient better and swim faster when moving as a group. The observed Lagrangian behavior of individual larvae are directly implemented in the Connectivity Modeling System (CMS), an open source Lagrangian tracking application. Simulations help demonstrate the impact that larval behavior has compared to passive Lagrangian trajectories. These methodologies are already the base of exciting findings and are promising tools for documenting and simulating the behavior of other small pelagic organisms, forecasting their migration in a changing ocean.

  18. Observational analyses of dramatic developments of a severe air pollution event in the Beijing area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Ju; Sun, Jielun; Zhou, Mingyu; Cheng, Zhigang; Li, Qingchun; Cao, Xiaoyan; Zhang, Jingjiang

    2018-03-01

    A rapid development of a severe air pollution event in Beijing, China, at the end of November 2015 was investigated with unprecedented observations collected during the field campaign of the Study of Urban Rainfall and Fog/Haze (SURF-15). Different from previous statistical analyses of air pollution events and their correlations with meteorological environmental conditions in the area, the role of turbulent mixing in the pollutant transfer was investigated in detail. The analyses indicate that the major pollution source associated with high particulate matter of diameter 2.5 µm (PM2.5) was from south of Beijing. Before the day of the dramatic PM2.5 increase, the nighttime downslope flow from the mountains to the west and north of Beijing reduced the surface PM2.5 concentration northwest of Beijing. The nighttime surface stable boundary layer (SBL) not only kept the relatively less-polluted air near the surface, it also shielded the rough surface from the pollutant transfer by southwesterly winds above the SBL, leading to the fast transport of pollutants over the Beijing area at night. As the daytime convective turbulent mixing developed in the morning, turbulent mixing transported the elevated polluted air downward even though the weak surface wind was from northeast, leading to the dramatic increase of the surface PM2.5 concentration in the urban area. As a result of both turbulent mixing and advection processes with possible aerosol growth from secondary aerosol formation under the low-wind and high-humidity conditions, the PM2.5 concentration reached over 700 µg m-3 in the Beijing area by the end of the day. Contributions of the two transporting processes to the PM2.5 oscillations prior to this dramatic event were also analyzed. The study demonstrates the important role of large-eddy convective turbulent mixing in vertical transfer of pollutants and the role of the SBL in not only decoupling vertical transport of trace gases and aerosols but also in

  19. Radio observations of the γ-ray quasar 0528+134. Superluminal motion and an extreme scattering event.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pohl, M.; Reich, W.; Krichbaum, T. P.; Standke, K.; Britzen, S.; Reuter, H. P.; Reich, P.; Schlickeiser, R.; Fiedler, R. L.; Waltman, E. B.; Ghigo, F. D.; Johnston, K. J.

    1995-11-01

    in the Orion complex and that we note frequent fluctuations of the order of 25% at 2.3GHz/2.695GHz, our lowest monitoring frequencies, while the variations at higher frequencies are more smooth. It is shown that the appearance of the extreme scattering event in the light curves of 0528+134 depends strongly on its VLBI structure and on the observed spectral appearance in our two frequency VLBI data. Due to these strong constraints our successful modelling provides the best available evidence that unusual variability behaviour of AGN may be caused by extreme scattering events and that localised (r<1AU) and dense (n_e_=100-1000cm^-3^) plasma structures do exist in the interstellar medium of our Galaxy.

  20. Coordinated Cluster/Double Star observations of dayside flux transfer events on 6 April 2004

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jue; Pu, ZuYin; Zhou, XuZhi; Zhang, XianGuo; Dunlop, Malcolm; Fu, SuiYan; Xie, Lun; Zong, QiuGang; Xiao, ChiJie; Wang, XiaoGang; Liu, ZhenXing

    2008-10-01

    With the Double Star Program TC1 in the equatorial orbit and Cluster tetrahedron in the high latitude polar orbit, a conjunct observation of FTEs on the dayside magnetopause (MP) on April 6, 2004 is presented in this study. The FTEs observed by TC1 at low latitudes are characterized to be generated in the subsolar region and the obtained flux tube axes orientate along the predicted low latitude component magnetic reconnection X-line, indicating that these FTEs were more likely to be generated through multiple X-line reconnection or single X-line bursty reconnection. During the same period, Cluster also encountered a series of magnetosheath FTEs with their axes pointing roughly along the interplanetary magnetic field. At last, the global FTE configuration is obtained from observations in different locations, which is in good agreement with the "elbow shape" model.

  1. Ancient Chinese Observations and Modern Cometary Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yeomans, D. K.

    1995-12-01

    Ancient astronomical observations by Chinese, Japanese, and Korean observers represent the only data source for discerning the long-term behavior of comets. The primary source material is derived from Chinese astrologers who kept a vigilant celestial watch in an effort to issue up-to-date astrological forecasts for the reigning emperors. Surprisingly accurate records were kept on cometary apparitions with careful notes being made of an object's position, motion, size, color, and tail length. For comets Halley, Swift-Tuttle, and Tempel-Tuttle, Chinese observations have been used to model their motions over two millennia and to infer their photometric histories. One general result is that active comets must achieve an apparent magnitude of 3.5 or brighter before they become obvious naked-eye objects. For both comets Halley and Swift-Tuttle, their absolute magnitudes and hence their outgassing rates, have remained relatively constant for two millennia. Comet Halley's rocket-like outgassing has consistently delayed the comet's return to perihelion by 4 days so that the comet's spin axis must have remained stable for at least two millennia. Although its outgassing is at nearly the same rate as Halley's, comet Swift-Tuttle's motion has been unaffected by outgassing forces; this comet is likely to be ten times more massive than Halley and hence far more difficult for rocket-like forces to push it around. Although the earliest definite observations of comet Tempel-Tuttle were in 1366, the associated Leonid meteor showers have been identified as early as A.D. 902. The circumstance for each historical meteor shower and storm have been used to guide predictions for the upcoming 1998-1999 Leonid meteor displays.

  2. Models and observations of Arctic melt ponds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Golden, K. M.

    2016-12-01

    During the Arctic melt season, the sea ice surface undergoes a striking transformation from vast expanses of snow covered ice to complex mosaics of ice and melt ponds. Sea ice albedo, a key parameter in climate modeling, is largely determined by the complex evolution of melt pond configurations. In fact, ice-albedo feedback has played a significant role in the recent declines of the summer Arctic sea ice pack. However, understanding melt pond evolution remains a challenge to improving climate projections. It has been found that as the ponds grow and coalesce, the fractal dimension of their boundaries undergoes a transition from 1 to about 2, around a critical length scale of 100 square meters in area. As the ponds evolve they take complex, self-similar shapes with boundaries resembling space-filling curves. I will outline how mathematical models of composite materials and statistical physics, such as percolation and Ising models, are being used to describe this evolution and predict key geometrical parameters that agree very closely with observations.

  3. Observational constraints on Visser's cosmological model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alves, M. E. S.; Araujo, J. C. N. de; Miranda, O. D.; Wuensche, C. A.; Carvalho, F. C.; Santos, E. M.

    2010-01-01

    Theories of gravity for which gravitons can be treated as massive particles have presently been studied as realistic modifications of general relativity, and can be tested with cosmological observations. In this work, we study the ability of a recently proposed theory with massive gravitons, the so-called Visser theory, to explain the measurements of luminosity distance from the Union2 compilation, the most recent Type-Ia Supernovae (SNe Ia) data set, adopting the current ratio of the total density of nonrelativistic matter to the critical density (Ω m ) as a free parameter. We also combine the SNe Ia data with constraints from baryon acoustic oscillations (BAO) and cosmic microwave background (CMB) measurements. We find that, for the allowed interval of values for Ω m , a model based on Visser's theory can produce an accelerated expansion period without any dark energy component, but the combined analysis (SNe Ia+BAO+CMB) shows that the model is disfavored when compared with the ΛCDM model.

  4. Discrete Event Simulation for Decision Modeling in Health Care: Lessons from Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Screening

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Edmund; Masconi, Katya L.; Sweeting, Michael J.; Thompson, Simon G.; Powell, Janet T.

    2018-01-01

    Markov models are often used to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of new healthcare interventions but they are sometimes not flexible enough to allow accurate modeling or investigation of alternative scenarios and policies. A Markov model previously demonstrated that a one-off invitation to screening for abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) for men aged 65 y in the UK and subsequent follow-up of identified AAAs was likely to be highly cost-effective at thresholds commonly adopted in the UK (£20,000 to £30,000 per quality adjusted life-year). However, new evidence has emerged and the decision problem has evolved to include exploration of the circumstances under which AAA screening may be cost-effective, which the Markov model is not easily able to address. A new model to handle this more complex decision problem was needed, and the case of AAA screening thus provides an illustration of the relative merits of Markov models and discrete event simulation (DES) models. An individual-level DES model was built using the R programming language to reflect possible events and pathways of individuals invited to screening v. those not invited. The model was validated against key events and cost-effectiveness, as observed in a large, randomized trial. Different screening protocol scenarios were investigated to demonstrate the flexibility of the DES. The case of AAA screening highlights the benefits of DES, particularly in the context of screening studies.

  5. Mechanistic modelling of genetic and epigenetic events in radiation carcinogenesis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andreev, S. G.; Eidelman, Y. A.; Salnikov, I. V.; Khvostunov, I. K.

    2006-01-01

    Methodological problems arise on the way of radiation carcinogenesis modelling with the incorporation of radiobiological and cancer biology mechanistic data. The results of biophysical modelling of different endpoints [DNA DSB induction, repair, chromosome aberrations (CA) and cell proliferation] are presented and applied to the analysis of RBE-LET relationships for radiation-induced neoplastic transformation (RINT) of C3H/10T1/2 cells in culture. Predicted values for some endpoints correlate well with the data. It is concluded that slowly repaired DSB clusters, as well as some kind of CA, may be initiating events for RINT. As an alternative interpretation, it is possible that DNA damage can induce RINT indirectly via epigenetic process. A hypothetical epigenetic pathway for RINT is discussed. (authors)

  6. Modelling shear wave splitting observations from Wellington, New Zealand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marson-Pidgeon, Katrina; Savage, Martha K.

    2004-05-01

    Frequency-dependent anisotropy was previously observed at the permanent broad-band station SNZO, South Karori, Wellington, New Zealand. This has important implications for the interpretation of measurements in other subduction zones and hence for our understanding of mantle flow. This motivated us to make further splitting measurements using events recorded since the previous study and to develop a new modelling technique. Thus, in this study we have made 67 high-quality shear wave splitting measurements using events recorded at the SNZO station spanning a 10-yr period. This station is the only one operating in New Zealand for longer than 2 yr. Using a combination of teleseismic SKS and S phases and regional ScS phases provides good azimuthal coverage, allowing us to undertake detailed modelling. The splitting measurements indicate that in addition to the frequency dependence observed previously at this station, there are also variations with propagation and initial polarization directions. The fast polarization directions range between 2° and 103°, and the delay times range between 0.75 s and 3.05 s. These ranges are much larger than observed previously at SNZO or elsewhere in New Zealand. Because of the observed frequency dependence we measure the dominant frequency of the phase used to make the splitting measurement, and take this into account in the modelling. We fit the fast polarization directions fairly well with a two-layer anisotropic model with horizontal axes of symmetry. However, such a model does not fit the delay times or explain the frequency dependence. We have developed a new inversion method which allows for an inclined axis of symmetry in each of the two layers. However, applying this method to SNZO does not significantly improve the fit over a two-layer model with horizontal symmetry axes. We are therefore unable to explain the frequency dependence or large variation in delay time values with multiple horizontal layers of anisotropy, even

  7. Modeling the Magnetopause Shadowing and Drift Orbit Bifurcation Loss during the June 2015 Dropout Event

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tu, W.; Cunningham, G.

    2017-12-01

    The relativistic electron flux in Earth's radiation belt are observed to drop by orders of magnitude on timescale of a few hours. Where do the electrons go during the dropout? This is one of the most important outstanding questions in radiation belt studies. Here we will study the 22 June 2015 dropout event which occurred during one of the largest geomagnetic storms in the last decade. A sudden and nearly complete loss of all the outer zone relativistic and ultra-relativistic electrons were observed after a strong interplanetary shock. The Last Closed Drift Shell (LCDS) calculated using the TS04 model reached as low as L*=3.7 during the shock and stay below L*=4 for 1 hour. The unusually low LCDS values suggest that magnetopause shadowing and the associated outward radial diffusion can contribute significantly to the observed dropout. In addition, Drift Orbit Bifurcation (DOB) has been suggested as an important loss mechanism for radiation belt electrons, especially when the solar wind dynamic pressure is high, but its relative importance has not been quantified. Here, we will model the June 2015 dropout event using a radial diffusion model that includes physical and event-specific inputs. First, we will trace electron drift shells based on TS04 model to identify the LCDS and bifurcation regions as a function of the 2nd adiabatic invariant (K) and time. To model magnetopause shadowing, electron lifetimes in our model will be set to electron drift periods at L*>LCDS. Electron lifetimes inside the bifurcation region have been estimated by Ukhorskiy et al. [JGR 2011, doi:10.1029/2011JA016623] as a function of L* and K, which will also be implemented in the model. This will be the first effort to include the DOB loss in a comprehensive radiation belt model. Furthermore, to realistically simulate outward radial diffusion, the new radial diffusion coefficients that are calculated based on the realistic TS04 model and include physical K dependence [Cunningham, JGR 2016

  8. Hydrodynamic modelling of extreme flood events in the Kashmir valley in India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jain, Manoj; Parvaze, Sabah

    2017-04-01

    extreme flood events showed good agreement (within ±15%) with corresponding observed peak discharge. The model could simulated the most severe flood event of 2014 reasonably well with simulated peak discharge of 2055 m3/s which is just 3% more than the observed discharge. The developed hydrodynamic model may be useful in simulating extreme flood events in the Kashmir Valley with reasonably good reproduction of extreme flood events.

  9. Analysis of hypoglycemic events using negative binomial models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Junxiang; Qu, Yongming

    2013-01-01

    Negative binomial regression is a standard model to analyze hypoglycemic events in diabetes clinical trials. Adjusting for baseline covariates could potentially increase the estimation efficiency of negative binomial regression. However, adjusting for covariates raises concerns about model misspecification, in which the negative binomial regression is not robust because of its requirement for strong model assumptions. In some literature, it was suggested to correct the standard error of the maximum likelihood estimator through introducing overdispersion, which can be estimated by the Deviance or Pearson Chi-square. We proposed to conduct the negative binomial regression using Sandwich estimation to calculate the covariance matrix of the parameter estimates together with Pearson overdispersion correction (denoted by NBSP). In this research, we compared several commonly used negative binomial model options with our proposed NBSP. Simulations and real data analyses showed that NBSP is the most robust to model misspecification, and the estimation efficiency will be improved by adjusting for baseline hypoglycemia. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  10. Analytic expressions for the construction of a fire event PSA model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kang, Dae Il; Kim, Kil Yoo; Kim, Dong San; Hwang, Mee Jeong; Yang, Joon Eon

    2016-01-01

    In this study, the changing process of an internal event PSA model to a fire event PSA model is analytically presented and discussed. Many fire PSA models have fire induced initiating event fault trees not shown in an internal event PSA model. Fire-induced initiating fault tree models are developed for addressing multiple initiating event issues. A single fire event within a fire compartment or fire scenario can cause multiple initiating events. As an example, a fire in a turbine building area can cause a loss of the main feed-water and loss of off-site power initiating events. Up to now, there has been no analytic study on the construction of a fire event PSA model using an internal event PSA model with fault trees of initiating events. In this paper, the changing process of an internal event PSA model to a fire event PSA model was analytically presented and discussed. This study results show that additional cutsets can be obtained if the fault trees of initiating events for a fire event PSA model are not exactly developed.

  11. Analytic expressions for the construction of a fire event PSA model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kang, Dae Il; Kim, Kil Yoo; Kim, Dong San; Hwang, Mee Jeong; Yang, Joon Eon [KAERI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-05-15

    In this study, the changing process of an internal event PSA model to a fire event PSA model is analytically presented and discussed. Many fire PSA models have fire induced initiating event fault trees not shown in an internal event PSA model. Fire-induced initiating fault tree models are developed for addressing multiple initiating event issues. A single fire event within a fire compartment or fire scenario can cause multiple initiating events. As an example, a fire in a turbine building area can cause a loss of the main feed-water and loss of off-site power initiating events. Up to now, there has been no analytic study on the construction of a fire event PSA model using an internal event PSA model with fault trees of initiating events. In this paper, the changing process of an internal event PSA model to a fire event PSA model was analytically presented and discussed. This study results show that additional cutsets can be obtained if the fault trees of initiating events for a fire event PSA model are not exactly developed.

  12. Modeling the Magnetopause Shadowing Loss during the October 2012 Dropout Event

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tu, Weichao; Cunningham, Gregory

    2017-04-01

    The relativistic electron flux in Earth's outer radiation belt are observed to drop by orders of magnitude on timescales of a few hours, which is called radiation belt dropouts. Where do the electrons go during the dropouts? This is one of the most important outstanding questions in radiation belt studies. Radiation belt electrons can be lost either by precipitation into the atmosphere or by transport across the magnetopause into interplanetary space. The latter mechanism is called magnetopause shadowing, usually combined with outward radial diffusion of electrons due to the sharp radial gradient it creates. In order to quantify the relative contribution of these two mechanisms to radiation belt dropout, we performed an event study on the October 2012 dropout event observed by Van Allen Probes. First, the precipitating MeV electrons observed by multiple NOAA POES satellites at low altitude did not show evidence of enhanced precipitation during the dropout, which suggested that precipitation was not the dominant loss mechanism for the event. Then, in order to simulate the magnetopause shadowing loss and outward radial diffusion during the dropout, we applied a radial diffusion model with electron lifetimes on the order of electron drift periods outside the last closed drift shell. In addition, realistic and event-specific inputs of radial diffusion coefficients (DLL) and last closed drift shell (LCDS) were implemented in the model. Specifically, we used the new DLL developed by Cunningham [JGR 2016] which were estimated in realistic TS04 [Tsyganenko and Sitnov, JGR 2005] storm time magnetic field model and included physical K (2nd adiabatic invariant) or pitch angle dependence. Event-specific LCDS traced in TS04 model with realistic K dependence was also implemented. Our simulation results showed that these event-specific inputs are critical to explain the electron dropout during the event. The new DLL greatly improved the model performance at low L* regions (L

  13. Coronal Fine Structure in Dynamic Events Observed by Hi-C

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winebarger, Amy; Schuler, Timothy

    2013-01-01

    The High-Resolution Coronal Imager (Hi-C) flew aboard a NASA sounding rocket on 2012 July 11 and captured roughly 345 s of high spatial and temporal resolution images of the solar corona in a narrowband 193 Angstrom channel. We have analyzed the fluctuations in intensity of Active Region 11520. We selected events based on a lifetime greater than 11 s (two Hi-C frames) and intensities greater than a threshold determined from the photon and readout noise. We compare the Hi-C events with those determined from AIA. We find that HI-C detects shorter and smaller events than AIA. We also find that the intensity increase in the Hi-C events is approx. 3 times greater than the intensity increase in the AIA events we conclude the events are related to linear sub-structure that is unresolved by AIA

  14. A High-Speed Spectroscopy System for Observing Lightning and Transient Luminous Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boggs, L.; Liu, N.; Austin, M.; Aguirre, F.; Tilles, J.; Nag, A.; Lazarus, S. M.; Rassoul, H.

    2017-12-01

    Here we present a high-speed spectroscopy system that can be used to record atmospheric electrical discharges, including lightning and transient luminous events. The system consists of a Phantom V1210 high-speed camera, a Volume Phase Holographic (VPH) grism, an optional optical slit, and lenses. The spectrograph has the capability to record videos at speeds of 200,000 frames per second and has an effective wavelength band of 550-775 nm for the first order spectra. When the slit is used, the system has a spectral resolution of about 0.25 nm per pixel. We have constructed a durable enclosure made of heavy duty aluminum to house the high-speed spectrograph. It has two fans for continuous air flow and a removable tray to mount the spectrograph components. In addition, a Watec video camera (30 frames per second) is attached to the top of the enclosure to provide a scene view. A heavy duty Pelco pan/tilt motor is used to position the enclosure and can be controlled remotely through a Rasperry Pi computer. An observation campaign has been conducted during the summer and fall of 2017 at the Florida Institute of Technology. Several close cloud-to-ground discharges were recorded at 57,000 frames per second. The spectrum of a downward stepped negative leader and a positive cloud-to-ground return stroke will be reported on.

  15. Geographic distribution of lightning-induced electron pricipitation observed as VLF/LF perturbation events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Inan, U.S.; Wolf, T.G.; Carpenter, D.L.

    1988-01-01

    Expected occurrence characteristics of lightning-induced electron precipitation (LEP) events at longitudes of the western (110 0 W) versus eastern (71 0 W) Unted States are considered from the point of view of available trapped particle flux at the edge of the loss cone. Considered from the point of view of available trapped particle flux at the edge of the loss cone. Considering published data on nighttime fluxes of >68 keV electrons observed at L≅2.5, and for ''direct'' precipitation into the northern hemisphere induced by northern hemisphere lightning, the occurrence rate and flux levels are expected to a factor of 20--200 higher in the west than in the east, assuming no significant variation in lightning source activity with longitude. Again assuming lightning sources in the north, it is predicted that at 71 0 W, ''mirrored'' precipitation into the southern hemisphere would involve precipitation fluxes 30--300 times higher than ''direct'' precipitation into the noerthern hemisphere. However, at 110 0 W and again assuming lightning in the north, southern hemisphere precipitation would tend to be limited to that small fraction of particles that were initially scattered into the northern loss cone and that were then backscattered from the northern atmosphere so as to reach the south

  16. Ground-based solar radio observations of the August 1972 events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bhonsle, R.V.; Degaonkar, S.S.; Alurkar, S.K.

    1976-01-01

    Ground-based observations of the variable solar radio emission ranging from few millimetres to decametres have been used here as a diagnostic tool to gain coherent phenomenological understanding of the great 2, 4 and 7 August, 1972 solar events in terms of dominant physical processes like generation and propagation of shock waves in the solar atmosphere, particle acceleration and trapping. Four major flares are selected for detailed analysis on the basis of their ability to produce energetic protons, shock waves, polar cap absorptions (PCA) and sudden commencement (SC) geomagnetic storms. A comparative study of their radio characteristics is made. Evidence is seen for the pulsations during microwave bursts by the mechanism similar to that proposed by McLean et al. (1971), to explain the pulsations in the metre wavelength continuum radiation. It is suggested that the multiple peaks observed in some microwave bursts may be attributable to individual flares occurring sequentially due to a single initiating flare. Attempts have been made to establish identification of Type II bursts with the interplanetary shock waves and SC geomagnetic storms. Furthermore, it is suggested that it is the mass behind the shock front which is the deciding factor for the detection of shock waves in the interplantary space. It appears that more work is necessary in order to identify which of the three moving Type IV bursts (Wild and Smerd, 1972), namely, advancing shock front, expanding magnetic arch and ejected plasma blob serves as the piston-driver behind the interplanetary shocks. The existing criteria for proton flare prediction have been summarized and two new criteria have been proposed. (Auth.)

  17. Effects of solar proton events on dayglow observed by the TIMED/SABER satellite

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Hong; Xu, Jiyao; Smith, Anne K.; Chen, Guang-Ming

    2017-07-01

    The effect of solar proton events on the daytime O2 and OH airglows and ozone and atomic oxygen concentrations in the mesosphere is studied using data from the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER). Five events occurred in September 2005, December 2006, March 2012, May 2013, and June 2015 that satisfy two criteria: the maximum proton fluxes are larger than 1000 pfu, and daytime data in the high latitude region are available from SABER. The event in December 2006 is studied in detail, and the effects of all five events are compared in brief. The results indicate that all four parameters in the mesosphere decrease during the events. During the event in 2006, the maximum depletions of O2 and OH dayglow emission rates and ozone and atomic oxygen volume mixing ratios at 70 km are respectively 31.6%, 37.0%, 42.4%, and 38.9%. The effect of the solar proton event changes with latitude, longitude, and altitude. The depletions due to the stronger events are larger on average than those due to the weaker events. The depletions of both dayglow emission rates are weaker than those of ozone and atomic oxygen. The responses of O2 and OH nightglow emissions around their peak altitudes to the SPEs are not as strong and regular as those for dayglow in the mesosphere.

  18. Aggressive Event Incidence using the Staff Observation of Aggression Scale-Revised (SOAS-R): A Longitudinal Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iennaco, Joanne DeSanto; Whittemore, Robin; Dixon, Jane

    2017-09-01

    The aim of this study was to identify aggressive event incidence rates in the inpatient psychiatric setting, describe characteristics of events and differences based on aggression target and type (verbal vs. physical). A longitudinal study was carried out of aggressive events identified by workers in four inpatient psychiatric units using the Staff Observation of Aggression Scale-Revised (SOAS-R) over 6 weeks. A total of 113 aggressive events were recorded resulting in a rate of 13.27 events per bed per year. Verbal aggression was demonstrated in 86 % and physical aggression in 57 % of events. Most events (70.8 %, n = 81) targeted a worker. Compared to other targets, workers were 3.4 times more likely to feel threatened (95 % CI 1.2-9.6, χ 2  = 5.08, p = 0.0242), and less likely to have a visible injury (OR 0.15, 95 % CI 0.04-0.6; χ 2  = 7.1, p = 0.0078). Event severity ranged from 0 to 21 with a mean of 9.5(SD = 5.1), with 20 % considered severe. Verbal events had lower mean severity of 6.5(SD = 3.8) versus physical events with a severity of 11.8(SD = 4.8; t = 6.5, df = 111, p Aggression incidence was similar to incidence found in other studies. Workers were the target of most aggressive events and many were identified as having no understandable provocation. Further understanding of event characteristics will promote more effective prevention and management of aggressive events.

  19. Global observations of electromagnetic and particle energy flux for an event during northern winter with southward interplanetary magnetic field

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Korth

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available The response of the polar ionosphere–thermosphere (I-T system to electromagnetic (EM energy input is fundamentally different to that from particle precipitation. To understand the I-T response to polar energy input one must know the intensities and spatial distributions of both EM and precipitation energy deposition. Moreover, since individual events typically display behavior different from statistical models, it is important to observe the global system state for specific events. We present an analysis of an event in Northern Hemisphere winter for sustained southward interplanetary magnetic field (IMF, 10 January 2002, 10:00–12:00 UT, for which excellent observations are available from the constellation of Iridium satellites, the SuperDARN radar network, and the Far-Ultraviolet (FUV instrument on the IMAGE satellite. Using data from these assets we determine the EM and particle precipitation energy fluxes to the Northern Hemisphere poleward of 60° MLAT and examine their spatial distributions and intensities. The accuracy of the global estimates are assessed quantitatively using comparisons with in-situ observations by DMSP along two orbit planes. While the location of EM power input evaluated from Iridium and SuperDARN data is in good agreement with DMSP, the magnitude estimated from DMSP observations is approximately four times larger. Corrected for this underestimate, the total EM power input to the Northern Hemisphere is 188 GW. Comparison of IMAGE FUV-derived distributions of the particle energy flux with DMSP plasma data indicates that the IMAGE FUV results similarly locate the precipitation accurately while underestimating the precipitation input somewhat. The total particle input is estimated to be 20 GW, nearly a factor of ten lower than the EM input. We therefore expect the thermosphere response to be determined primarily by the EM input even under winter conditions, and accurate assessment of the EM energy input is therefore key

  20. A Probabilistic and Observation Based Methodology to Estimate Small Craft Harbor Vulnerability to Tsunami Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keen, A. S.; Lynett, P. J.; Ayca, A.

    2016-12-01

    calibrated, the model was able to hindcast the damage produced in Santa Cruz Harbor during the 2010 Chile and 2011 Japan events. Results of the Santa Cruz analysis will be presented and discussed.

  1. Statistical survey of widely spread out solar electron events observed with STEREO and ACE with special attention to anisotropies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dresing, N.; Gómez-Herrero, R.; Heber, B.; Klassen, A.; Malandraki, O.; Dröge, W.; Kartavykh, Y.

    2014-07-01

    Context. In February 2011, the two STEREO spacecrafts reached a separation of 180 degrees in longitude, offering a complete view of the Sun for the first time ever. When the full Sun surface is visible, source active regions of solar energetic particle (SEP) events can be identified unambiguously. STEREO, in combination with near-Earth observatories such as ACE or SOHO, provides three well separated viewpoints, which build an unprecedented platform from which to investigate the longitudinal variations of SEP events. Aims: We show an ensemble of SEP events that were observed between 2009 and mid-2013 by at least two spacecrafts and show a remarkably wide particle spread in longitude (wide-spread events). The main selection criterion for these events was a longitudinal separation of at least 80 degrees between active region and spacecraft magnetic footpoint for the widest separated spacecraft. We investigate the events statistically in terms of peak intensities, onset delays, and rise times, and determine the spread of the longitudinal events, which is the range filled by SEPs during the events. Energetic electron anisotropies are investigated to distinguish the source and transport mechanisms that lead to the observed wide particle spreads. Methods: According to the anisotropy distributions, we divided the events into three classes depending on different source and transport scenarios. One potential mechanism for wide-spread events is efficient perpendicular transport in the interplanetary medium that competes with another scenario, which is a wide particle spread that occurs close to the Sun. In the latter case, the observations at 1 AU during the early phase of the events are expected to show significant anisotropies because of the wide injection range at the Sun and particle-focusing during the outward propagation, while in the first case only low anisotropies are anticipated. Results: We find events for both of these scenarios in our sample that match the

  2. Modelling of aircrew radiation exposure during solar particle events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al Anid, Hani Khaled

    show a very different response during anisotropic events, leading to variations in aircrew radiation doses that may be significant for dose assessment. To estimate the additional exposure due to solar flares, a model was developed using a Monte-Carlo radiation transport code, MCNPX. The model transports an extrapolated particle spectrum based on satellite measurements through the atmosphere using the MCNPX analysis. This code produces the estimated flux at a specific altitude where radiation dose conversion coefficients are applied to convert the particle flux into effective and ambient dose-equivalent rates. A cut-off rigidity model accounts for the shielding effects of the Earth's magnetic field. Comparisons were made between the model predictions and actual flight measurements taken with various types of instruments used to measure the mixed radiation field during Ground Level Enhancements 60 and 65. An anisotropy analysis that uses neutron monitor responses and the pitch angle distribution of energetic solar particles was used to identify particle anisotropy for a solar event in December 2006. In anticipation of future commercial use, a computer code has been developed to implement the radiation dose assessment model for routine analysis. Keywords: Radiation Dosimetry, Radiation Protection, Space Physics.

  3. Predicting extreme rainfall events over Jeddah, Saudi Arabia: Impact of data assimilation with conventional and satellite observations

    KAUST Repository

    Viswanadhapalli, Yesubabu; Srinivas, C.V.; Langodan, Sabique; Hoteit, Ibrahim

    2015-01-01

    The impact of variational data assimilation for predicting two heavy rainfall events that caused devastating floods in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia is studied using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. On 25 November 2009 and 26 January 2011

  4. Numerical Modeling of the Severe Cold Weather Event over Central Europe (January 2006

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Hari Prasad

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Cold waves commonly occur in higher latitudes under prevailing high pressure systems especially during winter season which cause serious economical loss and cold related death. Accurate prediction of such severe weather events is important for decision making by administrators and for mitigation planning. An Advanced high resolution Weather Research and Forecasting mesoscale model is used to simulate a severe cold wave event occurred during January 2006 over Europe. The model is integrated for 31 days starting from 00UTC of 1 January 2006 with 30 km horizontal resolution. Comparison of the model derived area averaged daily mean temperatures at 2m height from different zones over the central Europe with observations indicates that the model is able to simulate the occurrence of the cold wave with the observed time lag of 1 to 3days but with lesser intensity. The temperature, winds, surface pressure and the geopential heights at 500 hPa reveal that the cold wave development associates with the southward progression of a high pressure system and cold air advection. The results have good agreement with the analysis fields indicates that the model has the ability to reproduce the time evolution of the cold wave event.

  5. Understanding the ballistic event : Methodology and observations relevant to ceramic armour

    Science.gov (United States)

    Healey, Adam

    The only widely-accepted method of gauging the ballistic performance of a material is to carry out ballistic testing; due to the large volume of material required for a statistically robust test, this process is very expensive. Therefore a new test, or suite of tests, that employ widely-available and economically viable characterisation methods to screen candidate armour materials is highly desirable; in order to design such a test, more information on the armour/projectile interaction is required. This work presents the design process and results of using an adapted specimen configuration to increase the amount of information obtained from a ballistic test. By using a block of ballistic gel attached to the ceramic, the fragmentation generated during the ballistic event was captured and analysed. In parallel, quasi-static tests were carried out using ring-on-ring biaxial disc testing to investigate relationships between quasi-static and ballistic fragment fracture surfaces. Three contemporary ceramic armour materials were used to design the test and to act as a baseline; Sintox FA alumina, Hexoloy SA silicon carbide and 3M boron carbide. Attempts to analyse the post-test ballistic sample non-destructively using X-ray computed tomography (XCT) were unsuccessful due to the difference in the density of the materials and the compaction of fragments. However, the results of qualitative and quantitative fracture surface analysis using scanning electron microscopy showed similarities between the fracture surfaces of ballistic fragments at the edges of the tile and biaxial fragments; this suggests a relationship between quasi-static and ballistic fragments created away from the centre of impact, although additional research will be required to determine the reason for this. Ballistic event-induced porosity was observed and quantified on the fracture surfaces of silicon carbide samples, which decreased as distance from centre of impact increased; upon further analysis this

  6. Accurate Mass Measurements for Planetary Microlensing Events Using High Angular Resolution Observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jean-Philippe Beaulieu

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available The microlensing technique is a unique method to hunt for cold planets over a range of mass and separation, orbiting all varieties of host stars in the disk of our galaxy. It provides precise mass-ratio and projected separations in units of the Einstein ring radius. In order to obtain the physical parameters (mass, distance, orbital separation of the system, it is necessary to combine the result of light curve modeling with lens mass-distance relations and/or perform a Bayesian analysis with a galactic model. A first mass-distance relation could be obtained from a constraint on the Einstein ring radius if the crossing time of the source over the caustic is measured. It could then be supplemented by secondary constraints such as parallax measurements, ideally by using coinciding ground and space-born observations. These are still subject to degeneracies, like the orbital motion of the lens. A third mass-distance relation can be obtained thanks to constraints on the lens luminosity using high angular resolution observations with 8 m class telescopes or the Hubble Space Telescope. The latter route, although quite inexpensive in telescope time is very effective. If we have to rely heavily on Bayesian analysis and limited constraints on mass-distance relations, the physical parameters are determined to 30–40% typically. In a handful of cases, ground-space parallax is a powerful route to get stronger constraint on masses. High angular resolution observations will be able to constrain the luminosity of the lenses in the majority of the cases, and in favorable circumstances it is possible to derive physical parameters to 10% or better. Moreover, these constraints will be obtained in most of the planets to be discovered by the Euclid and WFIRST satellites. We describe here the state-of-the-art approaches to measure lens masses and distances with an emphasis on high angular resolution observations. We will discuss the challenges, recent results and

  7. Energy time dispersion of a new class of magnetospheric ion events observed near the Earth's bow shock

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. C. Anagnostopoulos

    2000-01-01

    Full Text Available We have analyzed high time resolution (\\geq6 s data during the onset and the decay phase of several energetic (\\geq35 keV ion events observed near the Earth's bow shock by the CCE/AMPTE and IMP-7/8 spacecraft, during times of intense substorm/geomagnetic activity. We found that forward energy dispersion at the onset of events (earlier increase of middle energy ions and/or a delayed fall of the middle energy ion fluxes at the end of events are often evident in high time resolution data. The energy spectra at the onset and the decay of this kind of events show a characteristic hump at middle (50-120 keV energies and the angular distributions display either anisotropic or broad forms. The time scale of energy dispersion in the ion events examined was found to range from several seconds to \\sim1 h depending on the ion energies compared and on the rate of variation of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF direction. Several canditate processes are discussed to explain the observations and it is suggested that a rigidity dependent transport process of magnetospheric particles within the magnetosheath is most probably responsible for the detection of this new type of near bow shock magnetospheric ion events. The new class of ion events was observed within both the magnetosheath and the upstream region.Key words. Interplanetary physics (energetic particles; planetary bow shocks

  8. Tensile twin nucleation events coupled to neighboring slip observed in three dimensions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lind, J.; Li, S.F.; Pokharel, R.; Lienert, U.; Rollett, A.D.; Suter, R.M.

    2014-01-01

    Low-symmetry crystals and polycrystals have anisotropic mechanical properties which, given better understanding of their deformation modes, could lead to development of next generation materials. Understanding how grains in a bulk polycrystal interact will guide and improve material modeling. Here, we show that tensile twins, in hexagonal close-packed metals, form where the macroscopic stress does not generate appropriate shear stress and vice versa. We use non-destructive high-energy X-ray diffraction microscopy to map local crystal orientations in three dimensions in a series of tensile strain states in a zirconium polycrystal. Twins and intragranular orientation variations are observed and it is found that deformation-induced rotations in neighboring grains are spatially correlated with many twins. We conclude that deformation twinning involves complex multigrain interactions which must be included in polycrystal plasticity models

  9. WAITING TIME DISTRIBUTION OF SOLAR ENERGETIC PARTICLE EVENTS MODELED WITH A NON-STATIONARY POISSON PROCESS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, C.; Su, W.; Fang, C.; Zhong, S. J.; Wang, L.

    2014-01-01

    We present a study of the waiting time distributions (WTDs) of solar energetic particle (SEP) events observed with the spacecraft WIND and GOES. The WTDs of both solar electron events (SEEs) and solar proton events (SPEs) display a power-law tail of ∼Δt –γ . The SEEs display a broken power-law WTD. The power-law index is γ 1 = 0.99 for the short waiting times (<70 hr) and γ 2 = 1.92 for large waiting times (>100 hr). The break of the WTD of SEEs is probably due to the modulation of the corotating interaction regions. The power-law index, γ ∼ 1.82, is derived for the WTD of the SPEs which is consistent with the WTD of type II radio bursts, indicating a close relationship between the shock wave and the production of energetic protons. The WTDs of SEP events can be modeled with a non-stationary Poisson process, which was proposed to understand the waiting time statistics of solar flares. We generalize the method and find that, if the SEP event rate λ = 1/Δt varies as the time distribution of event rate f(λ) = Aλ –α exp (– βλ), the time-dependent Poisson distribution can produce a power-law tail WTD of ∼Δt α –3 , where 0 ≤ α < 2

  10. Vertical velocity and turbulence aspects during Mistral events as observed by UHF wind profilers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Caccia, J.L.; Guenard, V. [LSEET, CNRS/Univ. de Toulon, La Garde (France); Benech, B.; Campistron, B. [CRA/LA, CNRS/Obs. Midi-Pyrenees, Campistrous (France); Drobinski, P. [IPSL/SA, CNRS/Univ. de Paris VI, Paris (France)

    2004-07-01

    The general purpose of this paper is to experimentally study mesoscale dynamical aspects of the Mistral in the coastal area located at the exit of the Rhone-valley. The Mistral is a northerly low-level flow blowing in southern France along the Rhone-valley axis, located between the French Alps and the Massif Central, towards the Mediterranean Sea. The experimental data are obtained by UHF wind profilers deployed during two major field campaigns, MAP (mesoscale alpine program) in autumn 1999, and ESCOMPTE (Experience sur Site pour COntraindre les Modeles de Pollution atmospheriques et de Transports d'Emission) in summer 2001. Thanks to the use of the time evolution of the vertical profile of the horizontal wind vector, recent works have shown that the dynamics of the Mistral is highly dependent on the season because of the occurrence of specific synoptic patterns. In addition, during summer, thermal forcing leads to a combination of sea breeze with Mistral and weaker Mistral due to the enhanced friction while, during autumn, absence of convective turbulence leads to substantial acceleration as low-level jets are generated in the stably stratified planetary boundary layer. At the exit of the Rhone valley, the gap flow dynamics dominates, whereas at the lee of the Alps, the dynamics is driven by the relative contribution of ''flow around'' and ''flow over'' mechanisms, upstream of the Alps. This paper analyses vertical velocity and turbulence, i.e. turbulent dissipation rate, with data obtained by the same UHF wind profilers during the same Mistral events. In autumn, the motions are found to be globally and significantly subsident, which is coherent for a dry, cold and stable flow approaching the sea, and the turbulence is found to be of pure dynamical origin (wind shears and mountain/lee wave breaking), which is coherent with non-convective situations. In summer, due to the ground heating and to the interactions with

  11. Characterizing low-mass binaries from observation of long-timescale caustic-crossing gravitational microlensing events

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Shin, I.-G; Han, C.; Choi, J.-Y

    2012-01-01

    solution by follow-up radial-velocity observation. For both events, the caustic-crossing parts of the light curves, which are critical for determining the physical lens parameters, were resolved by high-cadence survey observations and thus it is expected that the number of microlensing binaries...

  12. Impact of agricultural management on pluvial flash floods - Case study of an extreme event observed in Austria in 2016

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lumassegger, Simon; Achleitner, Stefan; Kohl, Bernhard

    2017-04-01

    Central Europe was affected by extreme flash floods in summer 2016 triggered by short, high-intensity storm cells. Besides fluvial runoff, local pluvial floods appear to increase recently. In frame of the research project SAFFER-CC (sensitivity assessment of critical condition for local flash floods - evaluating the recurrence under climate change) surface runoff and pluvial flooding is assessed using a coupled hydrological/2D hydrodynamic model for the severely affected municipality of Schwertberg, Upper Austria. In this small catchment several flooding events occurred in the last years, where the most severe event occurred during summer 2016. Several areas could only be reached after the flood wave subsided with observed flood marks up to one meter. The modeled catchment is intensively cultivated with maize, sugar beets, winter wheat and soy on the hillside and hence highly vulnerable to water erosion. The average inclination is relatively steep with 15 % leading to high flow velocities of surface runoff associated with large amounts of transported sediments. To assess the influence of land use and soil conservation on flash floods, field experiments with a portable irrigation spray installation were carried out at different locations. The test plots were subjected to rainfall with constant intensity of 100 mm/h for one hour. Consecutively a super intense, one hour lasting, rainfall hydrograph was applied after 30 minutes at the same plots, ranging from 50 mm/h to 200 mm/h. Surface runoff was collected and measured in a tank and water samples were taken to determine the suspended material load. Large differences of runoff coefficients were determined depending on the agricultural management. The largest discharge was measured in a maize field, where surface runoff occurred immediately after start of irrigation. The determined runoff coefficients ranged from 0.22 for soy up to 0.65 for maize for the same soil type and inclination. The conclusion that runoff is

  13. Investigating the impact of climate change on crop phenological events in Europe with a phenology model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Shaoxiu; Churkina, Galina; Trusilova, Kristina

    2012-07-01

    Predicting regional and global carbon and water dynamics requires a realistic representation of vegetation phenology. Vegetation models including cropland models exist (e.g. LPJmL, Daycent, SIBcrop, ORCHIDEE-STICS, PIXGRO) but they have various limitations in predicting cropland phenological events and their responses to climate change. Here, we investigate how leaf onset and offset days of major European croplands responded to changes in climate from 1971 to 2000 using a newly developed phenological model, which solely relies on climate data. Net ecosystem exchange (NEE) data measured with eddy covariance technique at seven sites in Europe were used to adjust model parameters for wheat, barley, and rapeseed. Observational data from the International Phenology Gardens were used to corroborate modeled phenological responses to changes in climate. Enhanced vegetation index (EVI) and a crop calendar were explored as alternative predictors of leaf onset and harvest days, respectively, over a large spatial scale. In each spatial model simulation, we assumed that all European croplands were covered by only one crop type. Given this assumption, the model estimated that the leaf onset days for wheat, barley, and rapeseed in Germany advanced by 1.6, 3.4, and 3.4 days per decade, respectively, during 1961-2000. The majority of European croplands (71.4%) had an advanced mean leaf onset day for wheat, barley, and rapeseed (7.0% significant), whereas 28.6% of European croplands had a delayed leaf onset day (0.9% significant) during 1971-2000. The trend of advanced onset days estimated by the model is similar to observations from the International Phenology Gardens in Europe. The developed phenological model can be integrated into a large-scale ecosystem model to simulate the dynamics of phenological events at different temporal and spatial scales. Crop calendars and enhanced vegetation index have substantial uncertainties in predicting phenological events of croplands. Caution

  14. Implementation of PSA models to estimate the probabilities associated with external event combination

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burgazzi, Luciano

    2014-01-01

    This note endeavors to address some significant issues revealed by the Fukushima accident in Japan in 2011, such as the analysis of various dependency aspects arisen in the light of the external event PSA framework, as the treatment of the correlated hazards. To this aim some foundational notions to implement the PSA models related to specific aspects, like the external hazard combination, e.g., earthquake and tsunami as at the Fukushima accident, and the external hazard-caused internal events, e.g., seismic induced fire, are proposed and discussed to be incorporated within the risk assessment structure. Risk assessment of external hazards is required and utilized as an integrated part of PRA for operating and new reactor units. In the light of the Fukushima accident, of special interest are correlated events, whose modelling is proposed in the present study, in the form of some theoretical concepts, which lay the foundations for the PSA framework implementation. An applicative example is presented for illustrative purposes, since the analysis is carried out on the basis of generic numerical values assigned to an oversimplified model and results are achieved without any baseline comparison. Obviously the first step aimed at the process endorsement is the analysis of all available information in order to determine the level of applicability of the observed specific plant site events to the envisaged model and the statistical correlation analysis for event occurrence data that can be used as part of this process. Despite these drawbacks that actually do not qualify the achieved results, the present work represents an exploratory study aimed at resolving current open issues to be resolved in the PSA, like topics related to unanticipated scenarios: the combined external hazards of the earthquake and tsunami in Fukushima, external hazards causing internal events, such as seismic induced fire. These topics are to be resolved among the other ones as emerging from the

  15. Observation of seasonal variation of atmospheric multiple-muon events in the MINOS near and far detectors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Adamson, P. [Fermi National Accelerator Lab. (FNAL), Batavia, IL (United States). et al.

    2015-06-09

    We report the first observation of seasonal modulations in the rates of cosmic ray multiple-muon events at two underground sites, the MINOS Near Detector with an overburden of 225 mwe, and the MINOS Far Detector site at 2100 mwe. Thus, at the deeper site, multiple-muon events with muons separated by more than 8 m exhibit a seasonal rate that peaks during the summer, similar to that of single-muon events. In contrast and unexpectedly, the rate of multiple-muon events with muons separated by less than 5–8 m, and the rate of multiple-muon events in the smaller, shallower Near Detector, exhibit a seasonal rate modulation that peaks in the winter.

  16. THE ELECTRON DENSITY IN EXPLOSIVE TRANSITION REGION EVENTS OBSERVED BY IRIS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Doschek, G. A.; Warren, H. P. [Space Science Division, Naval Research Laboratory, 4555 Overlook Avenue, SW, Washington, DC 20375 (United States); Young, P. R. [College of Science, George Mason University, 4400 University Drive, Fairfax, VA 22030 (United States)

    2016-11-20

    We discuss the intensity ratio of the O iv line at 1401.16 Å to the Si iv line at 1402.77 Å in Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph ( IRIS ) spectra. This intensity ratio is important if it can be used to measure high electron densities that cannot be measured using line intensity ratios of two different O iv lines from the multiplet within the IRIS wavelength range. Our discussion is in terms of considerably earlier observations made from the Skylab manned space station and other spectrometers on orbiting spacecraft. The earlier data on the O iv and Si iv ratio and other intersystem line ratios not available to IRIS are complementary to IRIS data. In this paper, we adopt a simple interpretation based on electron density. We adopt a set of assumptions and calculate the electron density as a function of velocity in the Si iv line profiles of two explosive events. At zero velocity the densities are about 2–3 × 10{sup 11} cm{sup -3}, and near 200 km s{sup -1} outflow speed the densities are about 10{sup 12} cm{sup -3}. The densities increase with outflow speed up to about 150 km s{sup -1} after which they level off. Because of the difference in the temperature of formation of the two lines and other possible effects such as non-ionization equilibrium, these density measurements do not have the precision that would be available if there were some additional lines near the formation temperature of O iv.

  17. Modeling extreme "Carrington-type" space weather events using three-dimensional global MHD simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ngwira, Chigomezyo M.; Pulkkinen, Antti; Kuznetsova, Maria M.; Glocer, Alex

    2014-06-01

    There is a growing concern over possible severe societal consequences related to adverse space weather impacts on man-made technological infrastructure. In the last two decades, significant progress has been made toward the first-principles modeling of space weather events, and three-dimensional (3-D) global magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) models have been at the forefront of this transition, thereby playing a critical role in advancing our understanding of space weather. However, the modeling of extreme space weather events is still a major challenge even for the modern global MHD models. In this study, we introduce a specially adapted University of Michigan 3-D global MHD model for simulating extreme space weather events with a Dst footprint comparable to the Carrington superstorm of September 1859 based on the estimate by Tsurutani et. al. (2003). Results are presented for a simulation run with "very extreme" constructed/idealized solar wind boundary conditions driving the magnetosphere. In particular, we describe the reaction of the magnetosphere-ionosphere system and the associated induced geoelectric field on the ground to such extreme driving conditions. The model setup is further tested using input data for an observed space weather event of Halloween storm October 2003 to verify the MHD model consistence and to draw additional guidance for future work. This extreme space weather MHD model setup is designed specifically for practical application to the modeling of extreme geomagnetically induced electric fields, which can drive large currents in ground-based conductor systems such as power transmission grids. Therefore, our ultimate goal is to explore the level of geoelectric fields that can be induced from an assumed storm of the reported magnitude, i.e., Dst˜=-1600 nT.

  18. Forecasting rain events - Meteorological models or collective intelligence?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arazy, Ofer; Halfon, Noam; Malkinson, Dan

    2015-04-01

    Collective intelligence is shared (or group) intelligence that emerges from the collective efforts of many individuals. Collective intelligence is the aggregate of individual contributions: from simple collective decision making to more sophisticated aggregations such as in crowdsourcing and peer-production systems. In particular, collective intelligence could be used in making predictions about future events, for example by using prediction markets to forecast election results, stock prices, or the outcomes of sport events. To date, there is little research regarding the use of collective intelligence for prediction of weather forecasting. The objective of this study is to investigate the extent to which collective intelligence could be utilized to accurately predict weather events, and in particular rainfall. Our analyses employ metrics of group intelligence, as well as compare the accuracy of groups' predictions against the predictions of the standard model used by the National Meteorological Services. We report on preliminary results from a study conducted over the 2013-2014 and 2014-2015 winters. We have built a web site that allows people to make predictions on precipitation levels on certain locations. During each competition participants were allowed to enter their precipitation forecasts (i.e. 'bets') at three locations and these locations changed between competitions. A precipitation competition was defined as a 48-96 hour period (depending on the expected weather conditions), bets were open 24-48 hours prior to the competition, and during betting period participants were allowed to change their bets with no limitation. In order to explore the effect of transparency, betting mechanisms varied across study's sites: full transparency (participants able to see each other's bets); partial transparency (participants see the group's average bet); and no transparency (no information of others' bets is made available). Several interesting findings emerged from

  19. Multiple daytime nucleation events in semi-clean savannah and industrial environments in South Africa: analysis based on observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Hirsikko

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Recent studies have shown very high frequencies of atmospheric new particle formation in different environments in South Africa. Our aim here was to investigate the causes for two or three consecutive daytime nucleation events, followed by subsequent particle growth during the same day. We analysed 108 and 31 such days observed in a polluted industrial and moderately polluted rural environments, respectively, in South Africa. The analysis was based on two years of measurements at each site. After rejecting the days having notable changes in the air mass origin or local wind direction, i.e. two major reasons for observed multiple nucleation events, we were able to investigate other factors causing this phenomenon. Clouds were present during, or in between most of the analysed multiple particle formation events. Therefore, some of these events may have been single events, interrupted somehow by the presence of clouds. From further analysis, we propose that the first nucleation and growth event of the day was often associated with the mixing of a residual air layer rich in SO2 (oxidized to sulphuric acid into the shallow surface-coupled layer. The second nucleation and growth event of the day usually started before midday and was sometimes associated with renewed SO2 emissions from industrial origin. However, it was also evident that vapours other than sulphuric acid were required for the particle growth during both events. This was especially the case when two simultaneously growing particle modes were observed. Based on our analysis, we conclude that the relative contributions of estimated H2SO4 and other vapours on the first and second nucleation and growth events of the day varied from day to day, depending on anthropogenic and natural emissions, as well as atmospheric conditions.

  20. International Observe the Moon Night: A Worldwide Public Observing Event that Annually Engages Scientists, Educators, and Citizen Enthusiasts in NASA Science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buxner, S.; Jones, A. P.; Bleacher, L.; Wasser, M. L.; Day, B. H.; Shaner, A. J.; Bakerman, M. N.; Joseph, E.

    2017-12-01

    International Observe the Moon Night (InOMN) is an annual worldwide event, held in the fall, that celebrates lunar and planetary science and exploration. InOMN is sponsored by NASA's Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) in collaboration with NASA's Solar System Exploration Research Virtual Institute (SSERVI), the NASA's Heliophysics Education Consortium, CosmoQuest, Night Sky Network, and Science Festival Alliance. Other key partners include the NASA Museum Alliance, Night Sky Network, and NASA Solar System Ambassadors. In 2017, InOMN will bring together thousands of people across the globe to observe and learn about the Moon and its connection to planetary science. We are partnering with the NASA Science Mission Directorate total solar eclipse team to highlight InOMN as an opportunity to harness and sustain the interest and momentum in space science and observation following the August 21st eclipse. This is part of a new partnership with the Sun-Earth Day team, through the Heliophysics Education Consortium, to better connect the two largest NASA-sponsored public engagement events, increase participation in both events, and share best practices in implementation and evaluation between the teams. Over 3,800 InOMN events have been registered between 2010 and 2016, engaging over 550,000 visitors worldwide. Most InOMN events are held in the United States, with strong representation from many other countries. InOMN events are evaluated to determine the value of the events and to allow us to improve the experience for event hosts and visitors. Our results show that InOMN events are hosted by scientists, educators, and citizen enthusiasts around the world who leverage InOMN to bring communities together, get visitors excited and learn about the Moon - and beyond, and share resources to extend engagement in lunar and planetary science and observation. Through InOMN, we annually provide resources such as event-specific Moon maps, presentations, advertising materials, and

  1. Modelling the interaction between flooding events and economic growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grames, Johanna; Grass, Dieter; Prskawetz, Alexia; Blöschl, Günther

    2015-04-01

    Socio-hydrology describes the interaction between the socio-economy, water and population dynamics. Recent models analyze the interplay of community risk-coping culture, flooding damage and economic growth (Di Baldassarre, 2013, Viglione, 2014). These models descriptively explain the feedbacks between socio-economic development and natural disasters like floods. Contrary to these descriptive models, our approach develops an optimization model, where the intertemporal decision of an economic agent interacts with the hydrological system. This is the first economic growth model describing the interaction between the consumption and investment decisions of an economic agent and the occurrence of flooding events: Investments in defense capital can avoid floods even when the water level is high, but on the other hand such investment competes with investment in productive capital and hence may reduce the level of consumption. When floods occur, the flood damage therefore depends on the existing defense capital. The aim is to find an optimal tradeoff between investments in productive versus defense capital such as to optimize the stream of consumption in the long-term. We assume a non-autonomous exogenous periodic rainfall function (Yevjevich et.al. 1990, Zakaria 2001) which implies that the long-term equilibrium will be periodic . With our model we aim to derive mechanisms that allow consumption smoothing in the long term, and at the same time allow for optimal investment in flood defense to maximize economic output. We choose an aggregate welfare function that depends on the consumption level of the society as the objective function. I.e. we assume a social planer with perfect foresight that maximizes the aggregate welfare function. Within our model framework we can also study whether the path and level of defense capital (that protects people from floods) is related to the time preference rate of the social planner. Our model also allows to investigate how the frequency

  2. Atypical energetic particle events observed prior energetic particle enhancements associated with corotating interaction regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khabarova, Olga; Malandraki, Olga; Zank, Gary; Jackson, Bernard; Bisi, Mario; Desai, Mihir; Li, Gang; le Roux, Jakobus; Yu, Hsiu-Shan

    2017-04-01

    Recent studies of mechanisms of particle acceleration in the heliosphere have revealed the importance of the comprehensive analysis of stream-stream interactions as well as the heliospheric current sheet (HCS) - stream interactions that often occur in the solar wind, producing huge magnetic cavities bounded by strong current sheets. Such cavities are usually filled with small-scale magnetic islands that trap and re-accelerate energetic particles (Zank et al. ApJ, 2014, 2015; le Roux et al. ApJ, 2015, 2016; Khabarova et al. ApJ, 2015, 2016). Crossings of these regions are associated with unusual variations in the energetic particle flux up to several MeV/nuc near the Earth's orbit. These energetic particle flux enhancements called "atypical energetic particle events" (AEPEs) are not associated with standard mechanisms of particle acceleration. The analysis of multi-spacecraft measurements of energetic particle flux, plasma and the interplanetary magnetic field shows that AEPEs have a local origin as they are observed by different spacecraft with a time delay corresponding to the solar wind propagation from one spacecraft to another, which is a signature of local particle acceleration in the region embedded in expanding and rotating background solar wind. AEPEs are often observed before the arrival of corotating interaction regions (CIRs) or stream interaction regions (SIRs) to the Earth's orbit. When fast solar wind streams catch up with slow solar wind, SIRs of compressed heated plasma or more regular CIRs are created at the leading edge of the high-speed stream. Since coronal holes are often long-lived structures, the same CIR re-appears often for several consecutive solar rotations. At low heliographic latitudes, such CIRs are typically bounded by forward and reverse waves on their leading and trailing edges, respectively, that steepen into shocks at heliocentric distances beyond 1 AU. Energetic ion increases have been frequently observed in association with CIR

  3. Observed versus predicted cardiovascular events and all-cause death in HIV infection: a longitudinal cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Socio, Giuseppe Vittorio; Pucci, Giacomo; Baldelli, Franco; Schillaci, Giuseppe

    2017-06-12

    The aim of the study was to assess the applicability of an algorithm predicting 10-year cardiovascular disease (CVD) generated in the setting of the Framingham Heart Study to a real-life, contemporary Italian cohort of HIV-positive subjects. The study was an observational longitudinal cohort study. The probability for 10-year CVD events according to the Framingham algorithm was assessed in 369 consecutive HIV-positive participants free from overt CVD enrolled in 2004, who were followed for a median of 10.0 years (interquartile range, 9.1-10.1). Cardiovascular events included myocardial infarction, hospitalized heart failure, revascularized angina, sudden cardiac death, stroke, peripheral arterial disease. Over 3097 person-years of observation, we observed a total of 34 CVD events, whereas Framingham algorithm predicted the occurrence of 34.3 CVD events. CVD event rate was 11.0/1000 person-years of follow-up. In a receiver operating characteristics curve analysis, Framingham risk equation showed an excellent predictive value for incident CVD events (c-statistics, 0.83; 95% confidence interval, 0.76-0.90). In a multivariable Cox analysis, age, smoking and diabetes were independent predictors of CVD events. All-cause death rate was 20.0/1000 person-years of follow-up (n = 62 deaths). Causes of death included liver diseases (18), malignancies (14), AIDS-related (11); cardiovascular (9) and others (10). In a Cox analysis, age, AIDS diagnosis and chronic hepatitis were independent predictors of death. Observed CVD events in HIV-infected patients were well predicted by Framingham algorithm. Established major CVD risk factors are the strongest determinants of CVD morbidity in an Italian contemporary cohort of HIV-positive subjects. Interventions to modify traditional risk factors are urgently needed in HIV people.

  4. Hidden Markov event sequence models: toward unsupervised functional MRI brain mapping.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faisan, Sylvain; Thoraval, Laurent; Armspach, Jean-Paul; Foucher, Jack R; Metz-Lutz, Marie-Noëlle; Heitz, Fabrice

    2005-01-01

    Most methods used in functional MRI (fMRI) brain mapping require restrictive assumptions about the shape and timing of the fMRI signal in activated voxels. Consequently, fMRI data may be partially and misleadingly characterized, leading to suboptimal or invalid inference. To limit these assumptions and to capture the broad range of possible activation patterns, a novel statistical fMRI brain mapping method is proposed. It relies on hidden semi-Markov event sequence models (HSMESMs), a special class of hidden Markov models (HMMs) dedicated to the modeling and analysis of event-based random processes. Activation detection is formulated in terms of time coupling between (1) the observed sequence of hemodynamic response onset (HRO) events detected in the voxel's fMRI signal and (2) the "hidden" sequence of task-induced neural activation onset (NAO) events underlying the HROs. Both event sequences are modeled within a single HSMESM. The resulting brain activation model is trained to automatically detect neural activity embedded in the input fMRI data set under analysis. The data sets considered in this article are threefold: synthetic epoch-related, real epoch-related (auditory lexical processing task), and real event-related (oddball detection task) fMRI data sets. Synthetic data: Activation detection results demonstrate the superiority of the HSMESM mapping method with respect to a standard implementation of the statistical parametric mapping (SPM) approach. They are also very close, sometimes equivalent, to those obtained with an "ideal" implementation of SPM in which the activation patterns synthesized are reused for analysis. The HSMESM method appears clearly insensitive to timing variations of the hemodynamic response and exhibits low sensitivity to fluctuations of its shape (unsustained activation during task). Real epoch-related data: HSMESM activation detection results compete with those obtained with SPM, without requiring any prior definition of the expected

  5. Numerical Simulation of a Breaking Gravity Wave Event Over Greenland Observed During Fastex

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Doyle, James

    1997-01-01

    Measurements from the NOAA G4 research aircraft and high-resolution numerical simulations are used to study the evolution and dynamics of a large-amplitude gravity wave event over Greenland that took...

  6. Sensitive observables for color connections in three-jet events at Z0 pole

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shao Fenglan; Xie Qubing; Li Shiyuan

    2003-01-01

    By substituting the color separate singlet connections for the color neutral flow connections into JETSET7.4, authors select the three-jet events according to DURHAM algorithm in e + e - annihilation at Z 0 pole. It was found that the ratio of the special three-jet events defined by constraining the angles between different jets is sensitive to different kinds of color connections. For these special events, different connections lead to significant differences for the charged particle multiplicity of events and properties of the gluon jet. The differences become larger as y cut getting smaller. By taking appropriate y cut , as 0.0005 in this paper, the differences between these two kinds of color connections should be discriminated by experiments

  7. A Halo Event observed by the Hybrid Experiment at Mt. Chacaltaya

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aoki, H.; Hashimoto, K.; Honda, K.; Inoue, N.; Kawasumi, N.; Martinic, N.; Navia O, C.; Ochi, N.; Ohmori, N.; Ohsawa, A.; Oliveira, C.; Shinozaki, K.; Tamada, M.; Ticona, R.; Tsushima, I.

    2006-01-01

    An experiment using an air shower array, a hadron calorimeter and an emulsion chamber is under way at Mt. Chacaltaya (5200 m, Bolivia). One of the highest energy events, having a halo (∼ 1 cm) in the centre of the family together with many γ-ray and hadron showers, is analyzed in detail. Available data for the event are on the halo (E halo =750 TeV) and on the high energy particles of electron/photon components by the emulsion chamber, and on the characteristics of the accompanied air shower (Ne=7.0x10 7 , s=0.59) by the air shower array. The diagram of the air shower size and the total energy of electron/photon components in the family, which shows discrepancy between the experimental data and simulated events (QGSJET code for nuclear collisions) in our previous reports, is discussed including the present event

  8. A case for multi-model and multi-approach based event attribution: The 2015 European drought

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hauser, Mathias; Gudmundsson, Lukas; Orth, René; Jézéquel, Aglaé; Haustein, Karsten; Seneviratne, Sonia Isabelle

    2017-04-01

    Science on the role of anthropogenic influence on extreme weather events such as heat waves or droughts has evolved rapidly over the past years. The approach of "event attribution" compares the occurrence probability of an event in the present, factual world with the probability of the same event in a hypothetical, counterfactual world without human-induced climate change. Every such analysis necessarily faces multiple methodological choices including, but not limited to: the event definition, climate model configuration, and the design of the counterfactual world. Here, we explore the role of such choices for an attribution analysis of the 2015 European summer drought (Hauser et al., in preparation). While some GCMs suggest that anthropogenic forcing made the 2015 drought more likely, others suggest no impact, or even a decrease in the event probability. These results additionally differ for single GCMs, depending on the reference used for the counterfactual world. Observational results do not suggest a historical tendency towards more drying, but the record may be too short to provide robust assessments because of the large interannual variability of drought occurrence. These results highlight the need for a multi-model and multi-approach framework in event attribution research. This is especially important for events with low signal to noise ratio and high model dependency such as regional droughts. Hauser, M., L. Gudmundsson, R. Orth, A. Jézéquel, K. Haustein, S.I. Seneviratne, in preparation. A case for multi-model and multi-approach based event attribution: The 2015 European drought.

  9. Implementation of the ATLAS Run 2 event data model

    CERN Document Server

    Buckley, Andrew; Elsing, Markus; Gillberg, Dag Ingemar; Koeneke, Karsten; Krasznahorkay, Attila; Moyse, Edward; Nowak, Marcin; Snyder, Scott; van Gemmeren, Peter

    2015-01-01

    During the 2013--2014 shutdown of the Large Hadron Collider, ATLAS switched to a new event data model for analysis, called the xAOD. A key feature of this model is the separation of the object data from the objects themselves (the `auxiliary store'). Rather being stored as member variables of the analysis classes, all object data are stored separately, as vectors of simple values. Thus, the data are stored in a `structure of arrays' format, while the user still can access it as an `array of structures'. This organization allows for on-demand partial reading of objects, the selective removal of object properties, and the addition of arbitrary user-defined properties in a uniform manner. It also improves performance by increasing the locality of memory references in typical analysis code. The resulting data structures can be written to ROOT files with data properties represented as simple ROOT tree branches. This talk will focus on the design and implementation of the auxiliary store and its interaction with RO...

  10. The Run 2 ATLAS Analysis Event Data Model

    CERN Document Server

    SNYDER, S; The ATLAS collaboration; NOWAK, M; EIFERT, T; BUCKLEY, A; ELSING, M; GILLBERG, D; MOYSE, E; KOENEKE, K; KRASZNAHORKAY, A

    2014-01-01

    During the LHC's first Long Shutdown (LS1) ATLAS set out to establish a new analysis model, based on the experience gained during Run 1. A key component of this is a new Event Data Model (EDM), called the xAOD. This format, which is now in production, provides the following features: A separation of the EDM into interface classes that the user code directly interacts with, and data storage classes that hold the payload data. The user sees an Array of Structs (AoS) interface, while the data is stored in a Struct of Arrays (SoA) format in memory, thus making it possible to efficiently auto-vectorise reconstruction code. A simple way of augmenting and reducing the information saved for different data objects. This makes it possible to easily decorate objects with new properties during data analysis, and to remove properties that the analysis does not need. A persistent file format that can be explored directly with ROOT, either with or without loading any additional libraries. This allows fast interactive naviga...

  11. Implementation of the ATLAS Run 2 event data model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buckley, A.; Eifert, T.; Elsing, M.; Gillberg, D.; Koeneke, K.; Krasznahorkay, A.; Moyse, E.; Nowak, M.; Snyder, S.; van Gemmeren, P.

    2015-12-01

    During the 2013-2014 shutdown of the Large Hadron Collider, ATLAS switched to a new event data model for analysis, called the xAOD. A key feature of this model is the separation of the object data from the objects themselves (the ‘auxiliary store’). Rather than being stored as member variables of the analysis classes, all object data are stored separately, as vectors of simple values. Thus, the data are stored in a ‘structure of arrays’ format, while the user still can access it as an ‘array of structures’. This organization allows for on-demand partial reading of objects, the selective removal of object properties, and the addition of arbitrary user- defined properties in a uniform manner. It also improves performance by increasing the locality of memory references in typical analysis code. The resulting data structures can be written to ROOT files with data properties represented as simple ROOT tree branches. This paper focuses on the design and implementation of the auxiliary store and its interaction with ROOT.

  12. Simultaneous Modeling of Gradual SEP Events at the Earth and the Mars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, J.; Li, G.

    2017-12-01

    Solar Energetic Particles (SEP) event is the number one space hazard for spacecraft instruments and astronauts' safety. Recent studies have shown that both longitudinal and radial extent of SEP events can be very significant. In this work, we use the improved Particle Acceleration and Transport in the Heliosphere (iPATH) model to simulate gradual SEP events that have impacts upon both the Earth and the Mars. We follow the propagation of a 2D CME-driven shock. Particles are accelerated at the shock via the diffusive shock acceleration (DSA) mechanism. Transport of the escaped particles to the Earth and the Mars is then followed using a backward stochastic differential equation method. Perpendicular diffusion is considered in both the DSA and the transport process. Model results such as time intensity profile and energetic particle spectrum at the two locations are compared to understand the spatial extent of an SEP event. Observational data at the Earth and the Mars are also studied to validate the model.

  13. A Climatology of Dust-Emission Events over North Africa Based on 27 Years of Surface Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cowie, S.; Knippertz, P.; Schepanski, K.

    2012-04-01

    The huge quantity of mineral dust emitted annually from North Africa makes this area crucial to the global dust cycle. Once in the atmosphere, dust aerosols have a significant impact on the global radiation budget, clouds, the carbon cycle and can even act as a fertilizer to rain forests in South America. Current model estimates of dust production from North Africa are uncertain. At the heart of this problem is insufficient understanding of key dust emitting processes such as haboobs (cold pools generated through evaporation of convective precipitation), low-level jets (LLJs), and dry convection (dust devils and dust plumes). Scarce observations in this region, in particular in the Sahara, make model evaluation difficult. This work uses long-term surface observations from the MIDAS data set (~120 stations in the arid part of North Africa) to explore the diurnal, seasonal, decadal and geographical variations in dust emission events and their associated wind thresholds. The threshold values are determined from probability density functions of observed 10-minute anemomenter wind speeds. Emission events are defined using the present weather codes (WW) of SYNOP reports. These codes represent events of smaller intensity such as "Dust or sand raised by wind" to severe dust storms. During the 27-year study period (1984-2011) stations are required to have a minimum of 1000 dust observations to be included in the analysis. Dust emission frequency (DEF) is calculated for different time intervals (e.g. monthly, 3-hourly) taking into account the different number of measurements available at each station. North of 25°N a maximum during March-May is evident and relatively consistent over the whole North African region. Wind-speed thresholds for dust emission north of 25°N are higher than south of 25°N in the Sahel, where station-to-station variability is larger, and enhanced DEF activity during February-March is observed. The variability in this region is closely linked to the

  14. Prediction skill of rainstorm events over India in the TIGGE weather prediction models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karuna Sagar, S.; Rajeevan, M.; Vijaya Bhaskara Rao, S.; Mitra, A. K.

    2017-12-01

    Extreme rainfall events pose a serious threat of leading to severe floods in many countries worldwide. Therefore, advance prediction of its occurrence and spatial distribution is very essential. In this paper, an analysis has been made to assess the skill of numerical weather prediction models in predicting rainstorms over India. Using gridded daily rainfall data set and objective criteria, 15 rainstorms were identified during the monsoon season (June to September). The analysis was made using three TIGGE (THe Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) Interactive Grand Global Ensemble) models. The models considered are the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and the UK Met Office (UKMO). Verification of the TIGGE models for 43 observed rainstorm days from 15 rainstorm events has been made for the period 2007-2015. The comparison reveals that rainstorm events are predictable up to 5 days in advance, however with a bias in spatial distribution and intensity. The statistical parameters like mean error (ME) or Bias, root mean square error (RMSE) and correlation coefficient (CC) have been computed over the rainstorm region using the multi-model ensemble (MME) mean. The study reveals that the spread is large in ECMWF and UKMO followed by the NCEP model. Though the ensemble spread is quite small in NCEP, the ensemble member averages are not well predicted. The rank histograms suggest that the forecasts are under prediction. The modified Contiguous Rain Area (CRA) technique was used to verify the spatial as well as the quantitative skill of the TIGGE models. Overall, the contribution from the displacement and pattern errors to the total RMSE is found to be more in magnitude. The volume error increases from 24 hr forecast to 48 hr forecast in all the three models.

  15. Should we trust models or observations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ellsaesser, H.W.

    1982-01-01

    Scientists and laymen alike already trust observational data more than theories-this is made explicit in all formalizations of the scientific method. It was demonstrated again during the Supersonic Transport (SST) controversy by the continued efforts to reconcile the computed effect of the 1961-62 nuclear test series on the ozone layer with the observational record. Scientists, caught in the focus of the political limelight, sometimes, demonstrated their faith in the primacy of observations by studiously ignoring or dismissing as erroneous data at variance with the prevailing theoretical consensus-thereby stalling the theoretical modifications required to accommodate the observations. (author)

  16. Reconstructing Methane Emission Events in the Arctic Ocean: Observations from the Past to Present

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panieri, G.; Mienert, J.; Fornari, D. J.; Torres, M. E.; Lepland, A.

    2015-12-01

    Methane hydrates are ice-like crystals that are present along continental margins, occurring in the pore space of deep sediments or as massive blocks near the seafloor. They form in high pressure and low temperature environments constrained by thermodynamic stability, and supply of methane. In the Arctic, gas hydrates are abundant, and the methane released by their destabilization can affect local to global carbon budgets and cycles, ocean acidification, and benthic community survival. With the aim to locate in space and time the periodicity of methane venting, CAGE is engaged in a vast research program in the Arctic, a component of which comprises the analyses of numerous sediment cores and correlative geophysical and geochemical data from different areas. Here we present results from combined analyses of biogenic carbonate archives along the western Svalbard Margin, which reveal past methane venting events in this region. The reconstruction of paleo-methane discharge is complicated by precipitation of secondary carbonate on foraminifera shells, driven by an increase in alkalinity during anaerobic oxidation of methane (AOM). The biogeochemical processes involved in methane cycling and processes that drive methane migration affect the depth where AOM occurs, with relevance to secondary carbonate formation. Our results show the value and complexity of separating primary vs. secondary signals in bioarchives with relevance to understanding fluid-burial history in methane seep provinces. Results from our core analyses are integrated with observations made during the CAGE15-2 cruise in May 2015, when we deployed a towed vehicle equipped with camera, multicore and water sampling capabilities. The instrument design was based on the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI) MISO TowCam sled equipped with a deep-sea digital camera and CTD real-time system. Sediment sampling was visually-guided using this system. In one of the pockmarks along the Vestnesa Ridge where high

  17. ELF whistler events with a reduced intensity observed by the DEMETER spacecraft

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zahlava, J.; Nemec, F.; Santolik, O.; Kolmasova, I.; Parrot, M.

    2017-12-01

    A survey of VLF frequency-time spectrograms obtained by the DEMETER spacecraft (2004-2010, altitude about 700 km) revealed that the intensity of fractional hop whistlers is sometimes significantly reduced at specific frequencies. These frequencies are typically above about 3.4 kHz (second cutoff frequency of the Earth-ionosphere waveguide), and they vary smoothly in time. The events were explained by the wave propagation in the Earth-ionosphere waveguide, and a resulting interference of the first few waveguide modes. We analyze the events whose frequency-time structure is rather similar, but at frequencies below 1 kHz. Altogether, 284 events are identified during the periods with active Burst mode, when high resolution data are measured by DEMETER. The vast majority of events (93%) occurs during the nighttime. All six electromagnetic field components are available, which allows us to perform a detailed wave analysis. An overview of the properties of these events is presented, and their possible origin is discussed.

  18. Observed differences in event structures of high-p/sub T/ π0 and single photon events produced in pp collisions at the CERN ISR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rahm, D.C.

    1980-01-01

    The direct photon production in pp collisions for c.m. energies 31 less than or equal to 63 GeV and transverse momenta of up to 9 GeV/c were measured at the ISR by use of a segmented lead/liquid argon calorimeter. The observed γ/π 0 ratio was found to be a significantly larger than zero at 4 GeV/c in p/sub T/, increasing to 0.4 at 9 GeV/c. The average multiplicity on the trigger side for the single-photon events was found to be significantly lower than for π 0 events. The correlations in Δy and Δphi between the trigger particle and an additional particle were found to differe mainly at small Δy and Δphi. 3 figures

  19. Energies of precipitating electrons during pulsating aurora events derived from ionosonde observations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    MacDougall, J.W.; Hofstee, J.; Koehler, J.A.

    1981-01-01

    The time-history of particle energies and fluxes associated with pulsating auroras in the morning sector is derived from ionosonde measurements. All the pulsating auroras studied showed a similar history with the pulsations occurring during a time interval of the order of an hour during which the average auroral Maxwellian characteristic energy stays relatively constant but the energy flux decreases progressively during the event. A possible explanation for this behaviour in terms of an injection of particles into a magnetospheric 'bottle' near the midnight meridian and the progressive precipitation out of the bottle during the pulsating event is suggested. (auth)

  20. Modeling of ELM events and their effect on impurity enrichment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hogan, J.; Colchin, R.; Coster, D.; Baylor, L.; Fenstermacher, M.; Groth, M.; Wade, M.

    2003-01-01

    Modeling of transient impurity transport during large ELMs is used to explore basic processes which may determine ELM-averaged enrichment. The b2-Eirene code (solps4), used for DIII-D geometry, suggests that a complex sequence can occur during an ELM cycle in which a transiently detached phase, with relatively low enrichment, can occur even under nominally attached conditions. A slower recovery phase then follows, in which the effect of induced scrape-off layer flows can increase in importance. The model results are compared with available fast time-scale measurements. The observed increased enrichment with higher Z is similar to trends in basic particle reflection properties. Neon recycling processes may thus introduce a significant history effect, as illustrated by analysis of continuous, unforced neon accumulation in a DIII-D discharge with a well-characterized operational history

  1. Spatially explicit modelling of extreme weather and climate events ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The reality of climate change continues to influence the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events such as heat waves, droughts, floods, and landslides. The impacts of the cumulative interplay of these extreme weather and climate events variation continue to perturb governments causing a scramble into formation ...

  2. A formal modeling approach for supply chain event management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Liu, R.; Kumar, Akhil; Aalst, van der W.M.P.

    2007-01-01

    As supply chains become more dynamic, there is a need for a sense-and-respond capability to react to events in a real-time manner. In this paper, we propose Petri nets extended with time and color (to represent case data) as a formalism for managing events. We designed seven basic patterns to

  3. The ins and outs of modelling vertical displacement events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pfefferle, David

    2017-10-01

    Of the many reasons a plasma discharge disrupts, Vertical Displacement Events (VDEs) lead to the most severe forces and stresses on the vacuum vessel and Plasma Facing Components (PFCs). After loss of positional control, the plasma column drifts across the vacuum vessel and comes in contact with the first wall, at which point the stored magnetic and thermal energy is abruptly released. The vessel forces have been extensively modelled in 2D but, with the constraint of axisymmetry, the fundamental 3D effects that lead to toroidal peaking, sideways forces, field-line stochastisation and halo current rotation have been vastly overlooked. In this work, we present the main results of an intense VDE modelling activity using the implicit 3D extended MHD code M3D-C1 and share our experience with the multi-domain and highly non-linear physics encountered. At the culmination of code development by the M3D-C1 group over the last decade, highlighted by the inclusion of a finite-thickness resistive vacuum vessel within the computational domain, a series of fully 3D non-linear simulations are performed using realistic transport coefficients based on the reconstruction of so-called NSTX frozen VDEs, where the feedback control was purposely switched off to trigger a vertical instability. The vertical drift phase, the evolution of the current quench and the onset of 3D halo/eddy currents are diagnosed and investigated in detail. The sensitivity of the current quench to parameter changes is assessed via 2D non-linear runs. The growth of individual toroidal modes is monitored via linear-complex runs. The intricate evolution of the plasma, which is decaying to large extent in force-balance with induced halo/wall currents, is carefully resolved via 3D non-linear runs. The location, amplitude and rotation of normal currents and wall forces are analysed and compared with experimental traces.

  4. The Rates of Type I X-ray Bursts from Transients Observed with RXTE: Evidence for Black Hole Event Horizons

    Science.gov (United States)

    Remillard, R. A.; Lin, D.; Cooper, R. L.; Narayan, R.

    2005-12-01

    We measure the rates of type I X-ray bursts from a likely complete sample of 37 non-pulsing Galactic X-ray transients observed with the RXTE ASM during 1996-2004. Our strategy is to test the prevailing paradigms for these sources, which are well-categorized in the literature as either neutron-star systems or black hole candidates. Burst rates are measured as a function of the bolometric luminosity, and the results are compared with burst models for neutron stars and for heavy compact objects with a solid surface. We use augmented versions of the models developed by Narayan & Heyl (2002; 2003). For a given mass, we consider a range of conditions in both the radius and the temperature at the boundary below the accretion layer. We find 135 type I bursts in 3.7 Ms of PCA light curves for the neutron-star group, and the burst rate function is generally consistent with the model predictions for bursts from accreting neutron stars. On the other hand, none of the (20) bursts candidates passed spectral criteria for type I bursts in 6.5 Ms of PCA light curves for black-hole binaries and candidates. The burst function upper limits are inconsistent with the predictions of the burst model for heavy compact objects with a solid surface. The consistency probability is found to be below 10-7 for dynamical black-hole binaries, falling to below 10-13 for the additional exposures of black-hole candidates. These results provide indirect evidence that black holes do have event horizons. This research was supported, in part, by NASA science programs.

  5. Near Source 2007 Peru Tsunami Runup Observations and Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borrero, J. C.; Fritz, H. M.; Kalligeris, N.; Broncano, P.; Ortega, E.

    2008-12-01

    On 15 August 2007 an earthquake with moment magnitude (Mw) of 8.0 centered off the coast of central Peru, generated a tsunami with locally focused runup heights of up to 10 m. A reconnaissance team was deployed two weeks after the event and investigated the tsunami effects at 51 sites. Three tsunami fatalities were reported south of the Paracas Peninsula in a sparsely populated desert area where the largest tsunami runup heights and massive inundation distances up to 2 km were measured. Numerical modeling of the earthquake source and tsunami suggest that a region of high slip near the coastline was primarily responsible for the extreme runup heights. The town of Pisco was spared by the Paracas Peninsula, which blocked tsunami waves from propagating northward from the high slip region. As with all near field tsunamis, the waves struck within minutes of the massive ground shaking. Spontaneous evacuations coordinated by the Peruvian Coast Guard minimized the fatalities and illustrate the importance of community-based education and awareness programs. The residents of the fishing village Lagunilla were unaware of the tsunami hazard after an earthquake and did not evacuate, which resulted in 3 fatalities. Despite the relatively benign tsunami effects at Pisco from this event, the tsunami hazard for this city (and its liquefied natural gas terminal) cannot be underestimated. Between 1687 and 1868, the city of Pisco was destroyed 4 times by tsunami waves. Since then, two events (1974 and 2007) have resulted in partial inundation and moderate damage. The fact that potentially devastating tsunami runup heights were observed immediately south of the peninsula only serves to underscore this point.

  6. A model-based approach to operational event groups ranking

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Simic, Zdenko [European Commission Joint Research Centre, Petten (Netherlands). Inst. for Energy and Transport; Maqua, Michael [Gesellschaft fuer Anlagen- und Reaktorsicherheit mbH (GRS), Koeln (Germany); Wattrelos, Didier [Institut de Radioprotection et de Surete Nucleaire (IRSN), Fontenay-aux-Roses (France)

    2014-04-15

    The operational experience (OE) feedback provides improvements in all industrial activities. Identification of the most important and valuable groups of events within accumulated experience is important in order to focus on a detailed investigation of events. The paper describes the new ranking method and compares it with three others. Methods have been described and applied to OE events utilised by nuclear power plants in France and Germany for twenty years. The results show that different ranking methods only roughly agree on which of the event groups are the most important ones. In the new ranking method the analytical hierarchy process is applied in order to assure consistent and comprehensive weighting determination for ranking indexes. The proposed method allows a transparent and flexible event groups ranking and identification of the most important OE for further more detailed investigation in order to complete the feedback. (orig.)

  7. Analysis of operational events by ATHEANA framework for human factor modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bedreaga, Luminita; Constntinescu, Cristina; Doca, Cezar; Guzun, Basarab

    2007-01-01

    In the area of human reliability assessment, the experts recognise the fact that the current methods have not represented correctly the role of human in prevention, initiating and mitigating the accidents in nuclear power plants. The nature of this deficiency appears because the current methods used in modelling of human factor have not taken into account the human performance and reliability such as it has been observed in the operational events. ATHEANA - A Technique for Human Error ANAlysis - is a new methodology for human analysis that has included the specific data of operational events and also psychological models for human behaviour. This method has included new elements such as the unsafe action and error mechanisms. In this paper we present the application of ATHEANA framework in the analysis of operational events that appeared in different nuclear power plants during 1979-2002. The analysis of operational events has consisted of: - identification of the unsafe actions; - including the unsafe actions into a category, omission ar commission; - establishing the type of error corresponding to the unsafe action: slip, lapse, mistake and circumvention; - establishing the influence of performance by shaping the factors and some corrective actions. (authors)

  8. Cytogenetics observation and radiation influence evaluation of exposed persons in a discontinuous radiation exposure event

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen Ying; Liu Xiulin; Yang Guoshan; Ge Shili; Jin Cuizhen; Yao Bo

    2003-01-01

    The cytogenetics results and dose estimation of exposed and related persons in an discontinuous radiation exposure event were reported in this paper. According to dicentrics + ring and micronucleus results combined with clinical data, slight (middle) degree of subacute radiation symptom of the victim was diagnosed. A part of 52 examined persons were exposed to radiation in a certain degree

  9. Observation of rotational component in digital data of mining induced seismic events

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Kaláb, Zdeněk; Knejzlík, Jaromír; Lednická, Markéta

    2012-01-01

    Roč. 7, č. 1 (2012), s. 75-85 ISSN 1896-3145. [Ochrona środowiska w górnictwie podziemnym, odkrywkowym i otworowym. Wieliczka - Zakrzow, 16.05.2012-18.05.2012] Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z30860518 Keywords : rotational component * mining induced seismic event * field measurement Subject RIV: DC - Siesmology, Volcanology, Earth Structure

  10. OGLE-2016-BLG-0168 Binary Microlensing Event: Prediction and Confirmation of the Microlens Parallax Effect from Space-based Observations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shin, I.-G.; Yee, J. C.; Jung, Y. K. [Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory, 60 Garden Street, Cambridge, MA 02138 (United States); Udalski, A.; Skowron, J.; Mróz, P.; Soszyński, I.; Poleski, R.; Szymański, M. K.; Kozłowski, S.; Pietrukowicz, P.; Ulaczyk, K.; Pawlak, M. [Warsaw University Observatory, Al. Ujazdowskie 4,00-478 Warszawa (Poland); Novati, S. Calchi [IPAC, Mail Code 100-22, California Institute of Technology, 1200 E. California Boulevard, Pasadena, CA 91125 (United States); Han, C. [Department of Physics, Chungbuk National University, Cheongju 371-763 (Korea, Republic of); Albrow, M. D. [University of Canterbury, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Private Bag 4800, Christchurch 8020 (New Zealand); Gould, A. [Department of Astronomy, Ohio State University, 140 W. 18th Avenue, Columbus, OH 43210 (United States); Chung, S.-J.; Hwang, K.-H.; Ryu, Y.-H. [Korea Astronomy and Space Science Institute, 776 Daedeokdae-ro, Yuseong-Gu, Daejeon 34055 (Korea, Republic of); Collaboration: OGLE Collaboration; KMTNet Group; Spitzer Team; and others

    2017-11-01

    The microlens parallax is a crucial observable for conclusively identifying the nature of lens systems in microlensing events containing or composed of faint (even dark) astronomical objects such as planets, neutron stars, brown dwarfs, and black holes. With the commencement of a new era of microlensing in collaboration with space-based observations, the microlens parallax can be routinely measured. In addition, space-based observations can provide opportunities to verify the microlens parallax measured from ground-only observations and to find a unique solution to the lensing light-curve analysis. Furthermore, since most space-based observations cannot cover the full light curves of lensing events, it is also necessary to verify the reliability of the information extracted from fragmentary space-based light curves. We conduct a test based on the microlensing event OGLE-2016-BLG-0168, created by a binary lens system consisting of almost equal mass M-dwarf stars, to demonstrate that it is possible to verify the microlens parallax and to resolve degeneracies using the space-based light curve even though the observations are fragmentary. Since space-based observatories will frequently produce fragmentary light curves due to their short observing windows, the methodology of this test will be useful for next-generation microlensing experiments that combine space-based and ground-based collaboration.

  11. Solar Coronal Jets: Observations, Theory, and Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raouafi, N. E.; Patsourakos, S.; Pariat, E.; Young, P. R.; Sterling, A.; Savcheva, A.; Shimojo, M.; Moreno-Insertis, F.; Devore, C. R.; Archontis, V.; hide

    2016-01-01

    Chromospheric and coronal jets represent important manifestations of ubiquitous solar transients, which may be the source of signicant mass and energy input to the upper solar atmosphere and the solar wind. While the energy involved in a jet-like event is smaller than that of nominal solar ares and Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs), jets share many common properties with these major phenomena, in particular, the explosive magnetically driven dynamics. Studies of jets could, therefore, provide critical insight for understanding the larger, more complex drivers of the solar activity. On the other side of the size-spectrum, the study of jets could also supply important clues on the physics of transients closeor at the limit of the current spatial resolution such as spicules. Furthermore, jet phenomena may hint to basic process for heating the corona and accelerating the solar wind; consequently their study gives us the opportunity to attack a broadrange of solar-heliospheric problems.

  12. Catalogue of {>} 55 MeV Wide-longitude Solar Proton Events Observed by SOHO, ACE, and the STEREOs at {≈} 1 AU During 2009 - 2016

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paassilta, Miikka; Papaioannou, Athanasios; Dresing, Nina; Vainio, Rami; Valtonen, Eino; Heber, Bernd

    2018-04-01

    Based on energetic particle observations made at {≈} 1 AU, we present a catalogue of 46 wide-longitude ({>} 45°) solar energetic particle (SEP) events detected at multiple locations during 2009 - 2016. The particle kinetic energies of interest were chosen as {>} 55 MeV for protons and 0.18 - 0.31 MeV for electrons. We make use of proton data from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory/Energetic and Relativistic Nuclei and Electron Experiment (SOHO/ERNE) and the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory/High Energy Telescopes (STEREO/HET), together with electron data from the Advanced Composition Explorer/Electron, Proton, and Alpha Monitor (ACE/EPAM) and the STEREO/ Solar Electron and Proton Telescopes (SEPT). We consider soft X-ray data from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) and coronal mass ejection (CME) observations made with the SOHO/ Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO) and STEREO/ Coronagraphs 1 and 2 (COR1, COR2) to establish the probable associations between SEP events and the related solar phenomena. Event onset times and peak intensities are determined; velocity dispersion analysis (VDA) and time-shifting analysis (TSA) are performed for protons; TSA is performed for electrons. In our event sample, there is a tendency for the highest peak intensities to occur when the observer is magnetically connected to solar regions west of the flare. Our estimates for the mean event width, derived as the standard deviation of a Gaussian curve modelling the SEP intensities (protons {≈} 44°, electrons {≈} 50°), largely agree with previous results for lower-energy SEPs. SEP release times with respect to event flares, as well as the event rise times, show no simple dependence on the observer's connection angle, suggesting that the source region extent and dominant particle acceleration and transport mechanisms are important in defining these characteristics of an event. There is no marked difference between the speed

  13. Diet Activity Characteristic of Large-scale Sports Events Based on HACCP Management Model

    OpenAIRE

    Xiao-Feng Su; Li Guo; Li-Hua Gao; Chang-Zhuan Shao

    2015-01-01

    The study proposed major sports events dietary management based on "HACCP" management model. According to the characteristic of major sports events catering activities. Major sports events are not just showcase level of competitive sports activities which have become comprehensive special events including social, political, economic, cultural and other factors, complex. Sporting events conferred reach more diverse goals and objectives of economic, political, cultural, technological and other ...

  14. Water quantity and quality response of a green roof to storm events: Experimental and monitoring observations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carpenter, Corey M G; Todorov, Dimitar; Driscoll, Charles T; Montesdeoca, Mario

    2016-11-01

    Syracuse, New York is working under a court-ordered agreement to limit combined sewer overflows (CSO) to local surface waters. Green infrastructure technologies, including green roofs, are being implemented as part of a CSO abatement strategy and to develop co-benefits of diminished stormwater runoff, including decreased loading of contaminants to the wastewater system and surface waters. The objective of this study was to examine the quantity and quality of discharge associated with precipitation events over an annual cycle from a green roof in Syracuse, NY and to compare measurements from this monitoring program with results from a roof irrigation experiment. Wet deposition, roof drainage, and water quality were measured for 87 storm events during an approximately 12 month period over 2011-2012. Water and nutrient (total phosphorus, total nitrogen, and dissolved organic carbon) mass balances were conducted on an event basis to evaluate retention annually and during the growing and non-growing seasons. These results are compared with a hydrological manipulation experiment, which comprised of artificially watering of the roof. Loadings of nutrients were calculated for experimental and actual storms using the concentration of nutrients and the flow data of water discharging the roof. The green roof was effective in retaining precipitation quantity from storm events (mean percent retention 96.8%, SD = 2.7%, n = 87), although the relative fraction of water retained decreased with increases in the size of the event. There was no difference in water retention of the green roof for the growing and non-growing seasons. Drainage waters exhibited high concentration of nutrients during the warm temperature growing season, particularly total nitrogen and dissolved organic carbon. Overall, nutrient losses were low because of the strong retention of water. However, there was marked variation in the retention of nutrients by season due to variations in concentrations in roof

  15. Strategies to Automatically Derive a Process Model from a Configurable Process Model Based on Event Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mauricio Arriagada-Benítez

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Configurable process models are frequently used to represent business workflows and other discrete event systems among different branches of large organizations: they unify commonalities shared by all branches and describe their differences, at the same time. The configuration of such models is usually done manually, which is challenging. On the one hand, when the number of configurable nodes in the configurable process model grows, the size of the search space increases exponentially. On the other hand, the person performing the configuration may lack the holistic perspective to make the right choice for all configurable nodes at the same time, since choices influence each other. Nowadays, information systems that support the execution of business processes create event data reflecting how processes are performed. In this article, we propose three strategies (based on exhaustive search, genetic algorithms and a greedy heuristic that use event data to automatically derive a process model from a configurable process model that better represents the characteristics of the process in a specific branch. These strategies have been implemented in our proposed framework and tested in both business-like event logs as recorded in a higher educational enterprise resource planning system and a real case scenario involving a set of Dutch municipalities.

  16. Odessa Tsunami of 27 June 2014: Observations and Numerical Modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Šepić, Jadranka; Rabinovich, Alexander B.; Sytov, Victor N.

    2018-04-01

    On 27 June, a 1-2-m high wave struck the beaches of Odessa, the third largest Ukrainian city, and the neighbouring port-town Illichevsk (northwestern Black Sea). Throughout the day, prominent seiche oscillations were observed in several other ports of the Black Sea. Tsunamigenic synoptic conditions were found over the Black Sea, stretching from Romania in the west to the Crimean Peninsula in the east. Intense air pressure disturbances and convective thunderstorm clouds were associated with these conditions; right at the time of the event, a 1.5-hPa air pressure jump was recorded at Odessa and a few hours earlier in Romania. We have utilized a barotropic ocean numerical model to test two hypotheses: (1) a tsunami-like wave was generated by an air pressure disturbance propagating directly over Odessa ("Experiment 1"); (2) a tsunami-like wave was generated by an air pressure disturbance propagating offshore, approximately 200 km to the south of Odessa, and along the shelf break ("Experiment 2"). Both experiments decisively confirm the meteorological origin of the tsunami-like waves on the coast of Odessa and imply that intensified long ocean waves in this region were generated via the Proudman resonance mechanism while propagating over the northwestern Black Sea shelf. The "Odessa tsunami" of 27 June 2014 was identified as a "beach meteotsunami", similar to events regularly observed on the beaches of Florida, USA, but different from the "harbour meteotsunamis", which occurred 1-3 days earlier in Ciutadella (Baleares, Spain), Mazara del Vallo (Sicily, Italy) and Vela Luka (Croatia) in the Mediterranean Sea, despite that they were associated with the same atmospheric system moving over the Mediterranean/Black Sea region on 23-27 June 2014.

  17. A statistical analysis of angular distribution of neutrino events observed in Kamiokande II and IMB detectors from supernova SN 1987 A

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krivoruchenko, M.I.

    1989-01-01

    A detailed statistical analysis of angular distribution of neutrino events observed in Kamiokande II and IMB detectors on UT 07:35, 2/23'87 is carried out. Distribution functions of the mean scattering angles in the reaction anti υ e p→e + n and υe→υe are constructed with account taken of the multiple Coulomb scattering and the experimental angular errors. The Smirnov and Wald-Wolfowitz run tests are used to test the hypothesis that the angular distributions of events from the two detectors agree with each other. We test with the use of the Kolmogorov and Mises statistical criterions the hypothesis that the recorded events all represent anti υ e p→e + n inelastic scatterings. Then the Neyman-Pearson test is applied to each event in testing the hypothesis anti υ e p→e + n against the alternative υe→υe. The hypotheses that the number of elastic events equals s=0, 1, 2, ... against the alternatives s≠0, 1, 2, ... are tested on the basis of the generalized likelihood ratio criterion. The confidence intervals for the number of elastic events are also constructed. The current supernova models fail to give a satisfactory account of the angular distribution data. (orig.)

  18. STEREO/SEPT particle observations during the CIR event on 2011 August 9

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dresing, N.; Heber, B.; Klassen, A.; Kühl, P.; Boettcher, S. I.; Gomez-Herrero, R.; Wraase, S.

    2017-12-01

    Among others, shocks are known to be accelerators of energetic charged particles. However, many questions regarding the acceleration efficiency and the required conditions are not fully understood. In particular, the acceleration of electrons by shocks is often questioned. Recurrent energetic particle events are caused by the passage of Corotating Interaction Regions (CIRs) that have been extensively analysed by different instrumentation close to Earth. Measurements of the Solar Electron and Proton Telescope aboard the Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory are utilized in the solar heliospheric community to investigate electron events. Due to its measurement principle, the magnet foil technique, ions can contribute to the electron channel. This effect is well known. During recurrent energetic particle events the averaged helium to proton ration is enhanced to more than 10%. The energy per nucleon spectra are nearly the same for protons and helium. Although the electron intensity profile is influenced by an ion contamination during the shock crossings it is not obvious that electrons are not enhanced during such periods. Computation using a GEANT4 simulation of the SEPT instrument resulted in response function for ions and electrons. These response functions have been utilzed to analyze the recurrent energetic particle event that was was measured by STEREO B on August 9, 2011. Assuming a constant helium to proton ratio and energy spectra described by a Band function we found that electron and ion measurement can be explained by the contribution of helium and protons with an helium to proton ratio of about 16%. Thus no electron enhancements are needed to explain the SEPT measurements.

  19. Multi-wavelength Observations of Two Explosive Events and Their Effects on the Solar Atmosphere

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Agustinus G. Admiranto

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available We investigated two flares in the solar atmosphere that occurred on June 3, 2012 and July 6, 2012 and caused propagation of Moreton and EIT waves. In the June 3 event, we noticed a filament winking which presumably was caused by the wave propagation from the flare. An interesting feature of this event is that there was a reflection of this wave by a coronal hole located alongside the wave propagation, but not all of this wave was transmitted by the coronal hole. Using the running difference method, we calculated the speed of Moreton and EIT waves and we found values of 926 km/s before the reflection and 276 km/s after the reflection (Moreton wave and 1,127 km/s before the reflection and 46 km/s after the reflection (EIT wave. In the July 6 event, this phenomenon was accompanied by type II and type III solar radio bursts, and we also performed a running difference analysis to find the speed of the Moreton wave, obtaining a value of 988 km/s. The speed derived from the analysis of the solar radio burst was 1,200 km/s, and we assume that this difference was caused by the different nature of the motions in these phenomena, where the solar radio burst was caused by the propagating particles, not waves.

  20. Observation of galactic cosmic ray spallation events from the SoHO mission 20-Year operation of LASCO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koutchmy, S.; Tavabi, E.; Urtado, O.

    2018-05-01

    A shower of secondary Cosmic Ray (CR) particles is produced at high altitudes in the Earth's atmosphere, so the primordial Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCRs) are never directly measured outside the Earth magnetosphere and atmosphere. They approach the Earth and other planets in the complex pattern of rigidity's dependence, generally excluded by the magnetosphere. GCRs revealed by images of single nuclear reactions also called spallation events are described here. Such an event was seen on Nov. 29, 2015 using a unique LASCO C3 space coronagraph routine image taken during the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SoHO) mission observing uninterruptedly at the Lagrangian L1 point. The spallation signature of a GCR identified well outside the Earth's magnetosphere is obtained for the 1st time. The resulting image includes different diverging linear "tracks" of varying intensity, leading to a single pixel; this frame identifies the site on the silicon CCD chip of the coronagraph camera. There was no solar flare reported at that time, nor Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) and no evidence of optical debris around the spacecraft. More examples of smaller CR events have been discovered through the 20 years of continuous observations from SoHO. This is the first spallation event from a CR, recorded outside the Earth's magnetosphere. We evaluate the probable energy of these events suggesting a plausible galactic source.

  1. Discrete Event Simulation Model of the Polaris 2.1 Gamma Ray Imaging Radiation Detection Device

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-06-01

    release; distribution is unlimited DISCRETE EVENT SIMULATION MODEL OF THE POLARIS 2.1 GAMMA RAY IMAGING RADIATION DETECTION DEVICE by Andres T...ONLY (Leave blank) 2. REPORT DATE June 2016 3. REPORT TYPE AND DATES COVERED Master’s thesis 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE DISCRETE EVENT SIMULATION MODEL...modeled. The platform, Simkit, was utilized to create a discrete event simulation (DES) model of the Polaris. After carefully constructing the DES

  2. Economics of extreme weather events: Terminology and regional impact models

    OpenAIRE

    Jahn, Malte

    2015-01-01

    Impacts of extreme weather events are relevant for regional (in the sense of subnational) economies and in particular cities in many aspects. Cities are the cores of economic activity and the amount of people and assets endangered by extreme weather events is large, even under the current climate. A changing climate with changing extreme weather patterns and the process of urbanization will make the whole issue even more relevant in the future. In this paper, definitions and terminology in th...

  3. Modelling the descent of nitric oxide during the elevated stratopause event of January 2013

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orsolini, Yvan J.; Limpasuvan, Varavut; Pérot, Kristell; Espy, Patrick; Hibbins, Robert; Lossow, Stefan; Raaholt Larsson, Katarina; Murtagh, Donal

    2017-03-01

    Using simulations with a whole-atmosphere chemistry-climate model nudged by meteorological analyses, global satellite observations of nitrogen oxide (NO) and water vapour by the Sub-Millimetre Radiometer instrument (SMR), of temperature by the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS), as well as local radar observations, this study examines the recent major stratospheric sudden warming accompanied by an elevated stratopause event (ESE) that occurred in January 2013. We examine dynamical processes during the ESE, including the role of planetary wave, gravity wave and tidal forcing on the initiation of the descent in the mesosphere-lower thermosphere (MLT) and its continuation throughout the mesosphere and stratosphere, as well as the impact of model eddy diffusion. We analyse the transport of NO and find the model underestimates the large descent of NO compared to SMR observations. We demonstrate that the discrepancy arises abruptly in the MLT region at a time when the resolved wave forcing and the planetary wave activity increase, just before the elevated stratopause reforms. The discrepancy persists despite doubling the model eddy diffusion. While the simulations reproduce an enhancement of the semi-diurnal tide following the onset of the 2013 SSW, corroborating new meteor radar observations at high northern latitudes over Trondheim (63.4°N), the modelled tidal contribution to the forcing of the mean meridional circulation and to the descent is a small portion of the resolved wave forcing, and lags it by about ten days.

  4. Television Advertising and Children's Observational Modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atkin, Charles K.

    This paper assesses advertising effects on children and adolescents from a social learning theory perspective, emphasizing imitative performance of vicariously reinforced consumption stimuli. The basic elements of social psychologist Albert Bandura's modeling theory are outlined. Then specific derivations from the theory are applied to the problem…

  5. A Note on the Observational Evidence for the Existence of Event Horizons in Astrophysical Black Hole Candidates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cosimo Bambi

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Black holes have the peculiar and intriguing property of having an event horizon, a one-way membrane causally separating their internal region from the rest of the Universe. Today, astrophysical observations provide some evidence for the existence of event horizons in astrophysical black hole candidates. In this short paper, I compare the constraint we can infer from the nonobservation of electromagnetic radiation from the putative surface of these objects with the bound coming from the ergoregion instability, pointing out the respective assumptions and limitations.

  6. A note on the observational evidence for the existence of event horizons in astrophysical black hole candidates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bambi, Cosimo

    2013-01-01

    Black holes have the peculiar and intriguing property of having an event horizon, a one-way membrane causally separating their internal region from the rest of the Universe. Today, astrophysical observations provide some evidence for the existence of event horizons in astrophysical black hole candidates. In this short paper, I compare the constraint we can infer from the nonobservation of electromagnetic radiation from the putative surface of these objects with the bound coming from the ergoregion instability, pointing out the respective assumptions and limitations.

  7. A simple ideal magnetohydrodynamical model of vertical disruption events in tokamaks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fitzpatrick, R.

    2009-01-01

    A simple model of axisymmetric vertical disruption events (VDEs) in tokamaks is presented in which the halo current force exerted on the vacuum vessel is calculated directly from linear, marginally stable, ideal-magnetohydrodynamical (MHD) stability analysis. The basic premise of the model is that the halo current force modifies pressure balance at the edge of the plasma, and therefore also modifies ideal-MHD plasma stability. In order to prevent the ideal vertical instability, responsible for the VDE, from growing on the very short Alfven time scale, the halo current force must adjust itself such that the instability is rendered marginally stable. The model predicts halo currents which are similar in magnitude to those observed experimentally. An approximate nonaxisymmetric version of the model is developed in order to calculate the toroidal peaking factor for the halo current force.

  8. Multiwavelength follow-up observations of the tidal disruption event candidate 2XMMi J184725.1-631724

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Dacheng; Strader, Jay; Carrasco, Eleazar R.; Godet, Olivier; Grupe, Dirk; Webb, Natalie A.; Barret, Didier; Irwin, Jimmy A.

    2018-03-01

    The ultrasoft X-ray flare 2XMMi J184725.1-631724 was serendipitously detected in two XMM-Newton observations in 2006 and 2007, with a peak luminosity of 6 × 1043 erg s-1. It was suggested to be a tidal disruption event (TDE) because its position is consistent with the centre of an inactive galaxy. It is the only known X-ray TDE candidate whose X-ray spectra showed evidence of a weak steep power-law component besides a dominant supersoft thermal disc. We have carried out multiwavelength follow-up observations of the event. Multiple X-ray monitorings show that the X-ray luminosity has decayed significantly after 2011. Especially, in our deep Chandra observation in 2013, we detected a very faint counterpart that supports the nuclear origin of 2XMMi J184725.1-631724 but had an X-ray flux a factor of ˜1000 lower than in the peak of the event. Compared with follow-up ultraviolet (UV) observations, we found that there might be some enhanced UV emission associated with the TDE in the first XMM-Newton observation. We also obtained a high-quality UV-optical spectrum with the Southern Astrophysical Research (SOAR) Telescope and put a very tight constraint on the persistent nuclear activity, with a persistent X-ray luminosity expected to be lower than the peak of the flare by a factor of >2700. Therefore, our multiwavelength follow-up observations strongly support the TDE explanation of the event.

  9. Observations of hydrotectonic stress/strain events at a basement high at the Nicoya outer rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tryon, M. D.; Brown, K. M.

    2005-12-01

    There is substantial and growing evidence from heat flow and coring investigations that the oceanic plate off Costa Rica is highly hydrologically active and that this activity is responsible for one of the most anomalously cold thermal environments encountered in the oceanic environment. Recent work by Fisher, et al. has identified limited regions above certain topographic highs with extremely high heat flows. Pore water profiles from cores above these thinly sedimented basement highs suggest upward flow on the order of ~1 cm/yr. These highs may be the principal regions of out-flow from the basement in this region and, thus, can potentially be used to constrain the general level of hydrologic activity. The nine Chemical and Aqueous Transport (CAT) meters we deployed at one of the highest heatflow sites provide a temporal record of both in-flow and out-flow of aqueous fluids at rates as low as 0.1 mm/yr. Our objective was to provide a direct measurement of long term flow rates to address the following questions: (1) What are the characteristic fluid fluxes at basement highs of the low heat flow region of the northern Costa Rican incoming plate, and (2) is this flow temporally variable? The results of the instrument deployments agree quite closely in general with the coring results in that the background rates are on the order of 1 cm/yr or less. There is, however, considerable detail in the temporal records which suggest small scale tectonic stress transients causing temporary increases in flow rate. While this is certainly not an area of major tectonic activity, the site is located at the top of the outer rise where one would expect bending-related stress and fault reactivation to occur. The CAT meters are capable of detecting minute strain events in the underlying sediments and therefore may be detecting small localized strain events. Two periods of increased flow lasting a few weeks each occur during the 5 month deployment and are indicated on all of the

  10. Bayesian modeling of recombination events in bacterial populations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dowson Chris

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background We consider the discovery of recombinant segments jointly with their origins within multilocus DNA sequences from bacteria representing heterogeneous populations of fairly closely related species. The currently available methods for recombination detection capable of probabilistic characterization of uncertainty have a limited applicability in practice as the number of strains in a data set increases. Results We introduce a Bayesian spatial structural model representing the continuum of origins over sites within the observed sequences, including a probabilistic characterization of uncertainty related to the origin of any particular site. To enable a statistically accurate and practically feasible approach to the analysis of large-scale data sets representing a single genus, we have developed a novel software tool (BRAT, Bayesian Recombination Tracker implementing the model and the corresponding learning algorithm, which is capable of identifying the posterior optimal structure and to estimate the marginal posterior probabilities of putative origins over the sites. Conclusion A multitude of challenging simulation scenarios and an analysis of real data from seven housekeeping genes of 120 strains of genus Burkholderia are used to illustrate the possibilities offered by our approach. The software is freely available for download at URL http://web.abo.fi/fak/mnf//mate/jc/software/brat.html.

  11. Analysis of the big halo event observed by Pamir emulsion chamber -P3B-90-

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yamashita, Seibun

    1986-01-01

    There is observed a big air family (named as 'P3B-90') with a large halo by Pamir carbon chamber, called P3B, in USSR-Japan joint experiment at Pamir plateau (4370 m above sea level). Total observed energy of this halo is estimated to be 19000 TeV. It penetrates through both the upper and the lower chamber without decreasing its size. Such strong penetrative power is due to the existence of many hadrons in the halo region which are produced through the atmospheric successive interactions. The energy ratio of hadronic part to electromagnetic part is 1/3 and it is nearly equal to the case of 'Andromeda' observed in Chacaltaya experiment. On the other hand, 298 shower spots (>1 TeV) with total observed energy 1163 TeV are found within about 30 cm of radius from the center of the family. Among the observed shower spots, 45 spots are identified as hadronic ones, whose total observed energy is 345 TeV and 253 spots are electromagnetic ones with total observed energy 818 TeV. There exists a large difference in the power index of the energy spectrum between the electromagnetic and the hadronic components. That is, the hadronic component has a harder spectrum than the electromagnetic component. It shows that there exist a lot of hadrons in high energy region among the observed shower spots. This seems to be a general tendency of the super-high energy families. (author)

  12. Event timing in associative learning: from biochemical reaction dynamics to behavioural observations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ayse Yarali

    Full Text Available Associative learning relies on event timing. Fruit flies for example, once trained with an odour that precedes electric shock, subsequently avoid this odour (punishment learning; if, on the other hand the odour follows the shock during training, it is approached later on (relief learning. During training, an odour-induced Ca(++ signal and a shock-induced dopaminergic signal converge in the Kenyon cells, synergistically activating a Ca(++-calmodulin-sensitive adenylate cyclase, which likely leads to the synaptic plasticity underlying the conditioned avoidance of the odour. In Aplysia, the effect of serotonin on the corresponding adenylate cyclase is bi-directionally modulated by Ca(++, depending on the relative timing of the two inputs. Using a computational approach, we quantitatively explore this biochemical property of the adenylate cyclase and show that it can generate the effect of event timing on associative learning. We overcome the shortage of behavioural data in Aplysia and biochemical data in Drosophila by combining findings from both systems.

  13. Meteor head echoes - observations and models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Pellinen-Wannberg

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Meteor head echoes - instantaneous echoes moving with the velocities of the meteors - have been recorded since 1947. Despite many attempts, this phenomenon did not receive a comprehensive theory for over 4 decades. The High Power and Large Aperture (HPLA features, combined with present signal processing and data storage capabilities of incoherent scatter radars, may give an explanation for the old riddle. The meteoroid passage through the radar beam can be followed with simultaneous spatial-time resolution of about 100m-ms class. The current views of the meteor head echo process will be presented and discussed. These will be related to various EISCAT observations, such as dual-frequency target sizes, altitude distributions and vector velocities.

  14. Spectrophotometric Modeling of MAHLI Goniometer Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, W.; Johnson, J. R.; Hayes, A.; Lemmon, M. T.; Bell, J. F., III; Grundy, W. M.; Deen, R. G.

    2017-12-01

    The Mars Hand Lends Imager (MAHLI) on the Curiosity rover's robotic arm was used as a goniometer to acquire a multiple-viewpoint data set on sol 544 [1]. Images were acquired at 20 arm positions, all centered at the same location and from a near-constant distance of 1.0 m from the surface. Although this sequence was acquired at only one time of day ( 13:30 LTST), it provided phase angle coverage from 0-110°. Images were converted to radiance from calibrated PDS files (DRXX) using radiance scaling factors and MAHLI focus position counts in an algorithm that rescaled the data to match the Mastcam M-34 calibration via comparison of sky images acquired during the mission. Converted MAHLI radiance values from an image of the Mastcam calibration target compared favorably in the red, green, and blue Bayer filters to M-34 radiance values from an image of the same target taken minutes afterwards. The 20 MAHLI images allowed construction of a digital terrain model (DTM), although images with shadows cast by the rover arm were more challenging to include. Their current absence restricts the lowest phase angles available to about 17°. The DTM enables calculation of surface normals that can be used with sky models to correct for diffuse reflectance on surface facets prior to Hapke modeling [cf. 2-6]. Regions of interest (ROIs) were extracted using one of the low emission-angle images as a template. ROI unit types included soils, light-toned surfaces (5 cm felsic rock "Nita"), dark-toned rocks with variable textures and dust cover, and larger areas representative of the average surface (see attached figure). These ROIs were translated from the template image to the other images through a matching of DTM three-dimensional coordinates. Preliminary phase curves (prior to atmospheric correction) show that soil-dominated surfaces are most backscattering, whereas rocks are least backscattering, and light-toned surfaces exhibit wavelength-dependent scattering. Future work will

  15. Delectability of low contrast in CT. Comparison between human observes and observer model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hernandez-Giron, I.; Geleijins, J.; Calzado, A.; Joemai, R. M. S.; Veldkamp, W. J. H.

    2013-01-01

    The objective of this work is to study the real images of TC and other simulated LCD with white noise through a model of observer. The results are compared with those obtained in a similar experiment by human observers. (Author)

  16. Reliability of P mode event classification using contemporaneous BiSON and GOLF observations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Simoniello, R; Chaplin, W J; Elsworth, Y P; Garcia, R A

    2008-01-01

    We carried out a comparison of the signals seen in contemporaneous BiSON and GOLF data sets. Both instruments perform Doppler shift velocity measurements in integrated sunlight, although BiSON perform measurements from the two wings of potassium absorption line and GOLF from one wing of the NaD1 line. Discrepancies between the two datasets have been observed. We show,in fact, that the relative power depends on the wing in which GOLF data observes. During the blue wing period, the relative power is mugh higher than in BiSON datasets, while a good agreement has been observed during the red period.

  17. New Physical Insights about Tidal Disruption Events from a Comprehensive Observational Inventory at X-Ray Wavelengths

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Auchettl, Katie [Center for Cosmology and Astro-Particle Physics, The Ohio State University, 191 West Woodruff Avenue, Columbus, OH 43210 (United States); Guillochon, James [Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, 60 Garden St., Cambridge, MA 02138 (United States); Ramirez-Ruiz, Enrico [Department of Astronomy and Astrophysics, University of California, Santa Cruz, CA 95064 (United States)

    2017-04-01

    We perform a comprehensive study of the X-ray emission from 70 transient sources that have been classified as tidal disruption events (TDEs) in the literature. We explore the properties of these candidates, using nearly three decades of X-ray observations to quantify their properties and characteristics. We find that the emission from X-ray TDEs increase by two to three orders of magnitude, compared to pre-flare constraints. These emissions evolve significantly with time, and decay with power-law indices that are typically shallower than the canonical t {sup −5/3} decay law, implying that X-ray TDEs are viscously delayed. These events exhibit enhanced (relative to galactic) column densities and are quite soft in nature, with no strong correlation between the amount of detected soft and hard emission. At their peak, jetted events have an X-ray to optical ratio ≫1, whereas non-jetted events have a ratio ∼1, which suggests that these events undergo reprocessing at different rates. X-ray TDEs have long T {sub 90} values, consistent with what would be expected from a viscously driven accretion disk formed by the disruption of a main-sequence star by a black hole with a mass <10{sup 7} M {sub ⊙}. The isotropic luminosities of X-ray TDEs are bimodal, such that jetted and non-jetted events are separated by a “reprocessing valley” that we suggest is naturally populated by optical/UV TDEs that most likely produce X-rays, but this emission is “veiled” from observations due to reprocessing. Our results suggest that non-jetted X-ray TDEs likely originate from partial disruptions and/or disruptions of low-mass stars.

  18. Micromechanics and statistics of slipping events in a granular seismic fault model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Arcangelis, L de [Department of Information Engineering and CNISM, Second University of Naples, Aversa (Italy); Ciamarra, M Pica [CNR-SPIN, Dipartimento di Scienze Fisiche, Universita di Napoli Federico II (Italy); Lippiello, E; Godano, C, E-mail: dearcangelis@na.infn.it [Department of Environmental Sciences and CNISM, Second University of Naples, Caserta (Italy)

    2011-09-15

    The stick-slip is investigated in a seismic fault model made of a confined granular system under shear stress via three dimensional Molecular Dynamics simulations. We study the statistics of slipping events and, in particular, the dependence of the distribution on model parameters. The distribution consistently exhibits two regimes: an initial power law and a bump at large slips. The initial power law decay is in agreement with the the Gutenberg-Richter law characterizing real seismic occurrence. The exponent of the initial regime is quite independent of model parameters and its value is in agreement with experimental results. Conversely, the position of the bump is solely controlled by the ratio of the drive elastic constant and the system size. Large slips also become less probable in absence of fault gouge and tend to disappear for stiff drives. A two-time force-force correlation function, and a susceptibility related to the system response to pressure changes, characterize the micromechanics of slipping events. The correlation function unveils the micromechanical changes occurring both during microslips and slips. The mechanical susceptibility encodes the magnitude of the incoming microslip. Numerical results for the cellular-automaton version of the spring block model confirm the parameter dependence observed for size distribution in the granular model.

  19. Stressful life events and social health factors in women using anxiolytics and antidepressants: an Italian observational study in community pharmacies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    D'Incau, Paola; Barbui, Corrado; Tubini, Jacopo; Conforti, Anita

    2011-04-01

    /or antidepressants use was observed. Further efforts are needed to increase our knowledge of the use of anxiolytics or antidepressants in relation to the occurrence of life events. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier HS Journals, Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Observations of rapid-fire event tremor at Lascar volcano, Chile

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Rademacher

    1996-06-01

    Full Text Available During the Proyecto de Investigaciòn Sismològica de la Cordillera Occidental (PISCO '94 in the Atacama desert of Northern Chile, a continuously recording broadband seismic station was installed to the NW of the currently active volcano, Lascar. For the month of April, 1994, an additional network of three, short period, three-component stations was deployed around the volcano to help discriminate its seismic signals from other local seismicity. During the deployment, the volcanic activity at Lascar appeared to be limited mainly to the emission of steam and SO2. Tremor from Lascar is a random, «rapid-fire» series of events with a wide range of amplitudes and a quasi-fractal structure. The tremor is generated by an ensemble of independent elementary sources clustered in the volcanic edifice. In the short-term, the excitation of the sources fluctuates strongly, while the long-term power spectrum is very stationary.

  1. Measurement of αs(MZ2) from hadronic event observables at the Z0 resonance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abe, K.; Abt, I.; Ahn, C.J.; Akagi, T.; Ash, W.W.; Aston, D.; Bacchetta, N.; Baird, K.G.; Baltay, C.; Band, H.R.; Barakat, M.B.; Baranko, G.; Bardon, O.; Barklow, T.; Bazarko, A.O.; Ben-David, R.; Benvenuti, A.C.; Bienz, T.; Bilei, G.M.; Bisello, D.; Blaylock, G.; Bogart, J.R.; Bolton, T.; Bower, G.R.; Brau, J.E.; Breidenbach, M.; Bugg, W.M.; Burke, D.; Burnett, T.H.; Burrows, P.N.; Busza, W.; Calcaterra, A.; Caldwell, D.O.; Calloway, D.; Camanzi, B.; Carpinelli, M.; Cassell, R.; Castaldi, R.; Castro, A.; Cavalli-Sforza, M.; Church, E.; Cohn, H.O.; Coller, J.A.; Cook, V.; Cotton, R.; Cowan, R.F.; Coyne, D.G.; D'Oliveira, A.; Damerell, C.J.S.; Dasu, S.; De Sangro, R.; De Simone, P.; Dell'Orso, R.; Dima, M.; Du, P.Y.C.; Dubois, R.; Eisenstein, B.I.; Elia, R.; Falciai, D.; Fan, C.; Fero, M.J.; Frey, R.; Furuno, K.; Gillman, T.; Gladding, G.; Gonzalez, S.; Hallewell, G.D.; Hart, E.L.; Hasegawa, Y.; Hedges, S.; Hertzbach, S.S.; Hildreth, M.D.; Huber, J.; Huffer, M.E.; Hughes, E.W.; Hwang, H.; Iwasaki, Y.; Jacques, P.; Jaros, J.; Johnson, A.S.; Johnson, J.R.; Johnson, R.A.; Junk, T.; Kajikawa, R.; Kalelkar, M.; Karliner, I.; Kawahara, H.; Kendall, H.W.; Kim, Y.; King, M.E.; King, R.; Kofler, R.R.; Krishna, N.M.; Kroeger, R.S.; Labs, J.F.; Langston, M.; Lath, A.; Lauber, J.A.; Leith, D.W.G.; Liu, X.; Loreti, M.; Lu, A.; Lynch, H.L.; Ma, J.; Mancinelli, G.; Manly, S.; Mantovani, G.; Markiewicz, T.W.; Maruyama, T.; Massetti, R.; Masuda, H.; Mazzucato, E.; McKemey, A.K.; Meadows, B.T.; Messner, R.; Mockett, P.M.; Moffeit, K.C.; Mours, B.; Mueller, G.; Muller, D.; Nagamine, T.; Nauenberg, U.; Neal, H.; Nussbaum, M.; Ohnishi, Y.; Osborne, L.S.; Panvini, R.S.; Park, H.; Pavel, T.J.; Peruzzi, I.; Pescara, L.; Piccolo, M.; Piemontese, L.; Pieroni, E.; Pitts, K.T.; Plano, R.J.; Prepost, R.; Prescott, C.Y.; Punkar, G.D.; Quigley, J.; Ratcliff, B.N.; Reeves, T.W.; Rensing, P.E.; Rochester, L.S.; Rothberg, J.E.; Rowson, P.C.; Russell, J.J.; Saxton, O.H.; Schalk, T.

    1995-01-01

    The strong coupling α s (M Z 2 ) has been measured using hadronic decays of Z 0 bosons collected by the SLD experiment at SLAC. The data were compared with QCD predictions both at fixed order O(α s 2 ) and including resummed analytic formulas based on the next-to-leading logarithm approximation. In this comprehensive analysis we studied event shapes, jet rates, particle correlations, and angular energy flow, and checked the consistency between α s (M Z 2 ) values extracted from these different measures. Combining all results we obtain α s (M Z 2 )= 0.1200±0.0025 (expt) ±0.0078 (theor), where the dominant uncertainty is from uncalculated higher order contributions

  2. Hybrid modelling in discrete-event control system design

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beek, van D.A.; Rooda, J.E.; Gordijn, S.H.F.; Borne, P.

    1996-01-01

    Simulation-based testing of discrete-event control systems can be advantageous. There is, however, a considerable difference between languages for real-time control and simulation languages. The Chi language, presented in this paper, is suited to specification and simulation of real-time control

  3. Observing painful events in others leads to a temporally extended general response facilitation in the self.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galang, Carl Michael; Naish, Katherine R; Arbabi, Keon; Obhi, Sukhvinder S

    2017-11-01

    Excitability in the motor cortex is modulated when we observe other people receiving a painful stimulus (Avenanti et al., Nat Neurosci 8(7):955-960, 2005). However, the task dependency of this modulation is not well understood, as different paradigms have yielded seemingly different results. Previous neurophysiological work employing transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS) suggests that watching another person's hand being pierced by a needle leads to a muscle specific inhibition, assessed via motor evoked potentials. Results from previous behavioural studies suggest that overt behavioural responses are facilitated due to pain observation (Morrison et al., Cereb Cortex 17:2214-2222, 2007b; Morrison et al., Cognition 104:407-416, 2007a). There are several paradigmatic differences both between typical TMS studies and behavioural studies, and within behavioural studies themselves, that limit our overall understanding of how pain observation affects the motor system. In the current study, we combine elements of typical TMS experimental designs in a behavioural assessment of how pain observation affects overt behavioural responding. Specifically, we examined the muscle specificity, timing, and direction of modulation of motor responses due to pain observation. To assess muscle specificity, we employed pain and non-pain videos from previous TMS studies in a Go/No-Go task in which participants responded by either pressing a key with their index finger or with their foot. To assess timing, we examined response times for Go signals presented at 0 or 500 ms after the video. Results indicate that observation of another individual receiving a painful stimulus leads to a non-effector specific, temporally extended response facilitation (e.g., finger and foot facilitation present at 0 and 500 ms delays), compared to observation of non-pain videos. This behavioural facilitation effect differs from the typical motor inhibition seen in TMS studies, and we argue that the effects of

  4. Peru 2007 tsunami runup observations and modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fritz, H. M.; Kalligeris, N.; Borrero, J. C.

    2008-05-01

    On 15 August 2007 an earthquake with moment magnitude (Mw) of 8.0 centered off the coast of central Peru, generated a tsunami with locally focused runup heights of up to 10 m. A reconnaissance team was deployed in the immediate aftermath and investigated the tsunami effects at 51 sites. The largest runup heights were measured in a sparsely populated desert area south of the Paracas Peninsula resulting in only 3 tsunami fatalities. Numerical modeling of the earthquake source and tsunami suggest that a region of high slip near the coastline was primarily responsible for the extreme runup heights. The town of Pisco was spared by the presence of the Paracas Peninsula, which blocked tsunami waves from propagating northward from the high slip region. The coast of Peru has experienced numerous deadly and destructive tsunamis throughout history, which highlights the importance of ongoing tsunami awareness and education efforts in the region. The Peru tsunami is compared against recent mega-disasters such as the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami and Hurricane Katrina.

  5. Modeling active region transient brightenings observed with X-ray telescope as multi-stranded loops

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kobelski, Adam R.; McKenzie, David E. [Department of Physics, P.O. Box 173840, Montana State University, Bozeman, MT 59717-3840 (United States); Donachie, Martin, E-mail: kobelski@solar.physics.montana.edu [University of Glasgow, Glasgow, G128QQ, Scotland (United Kingdom)

    2014-05-10

    Strong evidence exists that coronal loops as observed in extreme ultraviolet and soft X-rays may not be monolithic isotropic structures, but can often be more accurately modeled as bundles of independent strands. Modeling the observed active region transient brightenings (ARTBs) within this framework allows for the exploration of the energetic ramifications and characteristics of these stratified structures. Here we present a simple method of detecting and modeling ARTBs observed with the Hinode X-Ray Telescope (XRT) as groups of zero-dimensional strands, which allows us to probe parameter space to better understand the spatial and temporal dependence of strand heating in impulsively heated loops. This partially automated method can be used to analyze a large number of observations to gain a statistical insight into the parameters of coronal structures, including the number of heating events required in a given model to fit the observations. In this article, we present the methodology and demonstrate its use in detecting and modeling ARTBs in a sample data set from Hinode/XRT. These initial results show that, in general, multiple heating events are necessary to reproduce observed ARTBs, but the spatial dependence of these heating events cannot yet be established.

  6. Modeling active region transient brightenings observed with X-ray telescope as multi-stranded loops

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kobelski, Adam R.; McKenzie, David E.; Donachie, Martin

    2014-01-01

    Strong evidence exists that coronal loops as observed in extreme ultraviolet and soft X-rays may not be monolithic isotropic structures, but can often be more accurately modeled as bundles of independent strands. Modeling the observed active region transient brightenings (ARTBs) within this framework allows for the exploration of the energetic ramifications and characteristics of these stratified structures. Here we present a simple method of detecting and modeling ARTBs observed with the Hinode X-Ray Telescope (XRT) as groups of zero-dimensional strands, which allows us to probe parameter space to better understand the spatial and temporal dependence of strand heating in impulsively heated loops. This partially automated method can be used to analyze a large number of observations to gain a statistical insight into the parameters of coronal structures, including the number of heating events required in a given model to fit the observations. In this article, we present the methodology and demonstrate its use in detecting and modeling ARTBs in a sample data set from Hinode/XRT. These initial results show that, in general, multiple heating events are necessary to reproduce observed ARTBs, but the spatial dependence of these heating events cannot yet be established.

  7. Satellite-Observed Black Water Events off Southwest Florida: Implications for Coral Reef Health in the Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary

    OpenAIRE

    Zhao, Jun; Hu, Chuanmin; Lapointe, Brian; Melo, Nelson; Johns, Elizabeth; Smith, Ryan

    2013-01-01

    A “black water” event, as observed from satellites, occurred off southwest Florida in 2012. Satellite observations suggested that the event started in early January and ended in mid-April 2012. The black water patch formed off central west Florida and advected southward towards Florida Bay and the Florida Keys with the shelf circulation, which was confirmed by satellite-tracked surface drifter trajectories. Compared with a previous black water event in 2002, the 2012 event was weaker in terms...

  8. Pancam and Microscopic Imager observations of dust on the Spirit Rover: Cleaning events, spectral properties, and aggregates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vaughan, Alicia F.; Johnson, Jeffrey R.; Herkenhoff, Kenneth E.; Sullivan, Robert; Landis, Geoffrey A.; Goetz, Walter; Madsen, Morten B.

    2010-01-01

    This work describes dust deposits on the Spirit Rover over 2000 sols through examination of Pancam and Microscopic Imager observations of specific locations on the rover body, including portions of the solar array, Pancam and Mini-TES calibration targets, and the magnets. This data set reveals the three "cleaning events" experienced by Spirit to date, the spectral properties of dust, and the tendency of dust particles to form aggregates 100 um and larger.

  9. A prediction and damage assessment model for snowmelt flood events in middle and high latitudes Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qiao, C.; Huang, Q.; Chen, T.; Zhang, X.

    2017-12-01

    In the context of global warming, the snowmelt flood events in the mountainous area of the middle and high latitudes are increasingly frequent and create severe casualties and property damages. Carrying out the prediction and risk assessment of the snowmelt flood is of great importance in the water resources management, the flood warning and prevention. Based on the remote sensing and GIS techniques, the relationships of the variables influencing the snowmelt flood such as the snow area, the snow depth, the air temperature, the precipitation, the land topography and land covers are analyzed and a prediction and damage assessment model for snowmelt floods is developed. This model analyzes and predicts the flood submerging area, flood depth, flood grade, and the damages of different underlying surfaces in the study area in a given time period based on the estimation of snowmelt amount, the snowmelt runoff, the direction and velocity of the flood. Then it was used to predict a snowmelt flood event in the Ertis River Basin in northern Xinjiang, China, during March and June, 2005 and to assess its damages including the damages of roads, transmission lines, settlements caused by the floods and the possible landslides using the hydrological and meteorological data, snow parameter data, DEM data and land use data. A comparison was made between the prediction results from this model and observation data including the flood measurement and its disaster loss data, which suggests that this model performs well in predicting the strength and impact area of snowmelt flood and its damage assessment. This model will be helpful for the prediction and damage assessment of snowmelt flood events in the mountainous area in the middle and high latitudes in spring, which has great social and economic significance because it provides a relatively reliable method for snowmelt flood prediction and reduces the possible damages caused by snowmelt floods.

  10. Developing a forecast model of solar proton flux profiles for well-connected events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ji, E. Y.; Moon, Y. J.; Park, J.

    2014-12-01

    We have developed a forecast model of solar proton flux profile (> 10 MeV channel) for well-connected events. Among 136 solar proton events (SPEs) from 1986 to 2006, we select 49 well-connected ones that are all associated with single X-ray flares stronger than M1 class and start to increase within four hours after their X-ray peak times. These events show rapid increments in proton flux. By comparing several empirical functions, we select a modified Weibull curve function to approximate a SPE flux profile, which is similar to the particle injection rate. The parameters (peak value, rise time and decay time) of this function are determined by the relationship between X-ray flare parameters (peak flux, impulsive time, and emission measure) and SPE parameters. For 49 well-connected SPEs, the linear correlation between the predicted proton peak flux and the observed proton peak fluxes is 0.65 with the RMS error of 0.55 pfu in the log10. In addition, we have developed another forecast model based on flare and CME parameters using 22 SPEs. The used CME parameters are linear speed and angular width. As a result, we find that the linear correlation between the predicted proton peak flux and the observed proton peak fluxes is 0.83 with the RMS error of 0.35 pfu in the log10. From the relationship between the model error and CME acceleration, we find that CME acceleration is also an important factor for predicting proton flux profiles.

  11. Vertical velocity and turbulence aspects during Mistral events as observed by UHF wind profilers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J.-L. Caccia

    2004-11-01

    Full Text Available The general purpose of this paper is to experimentally study mesoscale dynamical aspects of the Mistral in the coastal area located at the exit of the Rhône-valley. The Mistral is a northerly low-level flow blowing in southern France along the Rhône-valley axis, located between the French Alps and the Massif Central, towards the Mediterranean Sea. The experimental data are obtained by UHF wind profilers deployed during two major field campaigns, MAP (Mesoscale Alpine Program in autumn 1999, and ESCOMPTE (Expérience sur Site pour COntraindre les Modèles de Pollution atmosphériques et de Transports d'Emission in summer 2001. Thanks to the use of the time evolution of the vertical profile of the horizontal wind vector, recent works have shown that the dynamics of the Mistral is highly dependent on the season because of the occurrence of specific synoptic patterns. In addition, during summer, thermal forcing leads to a combination of sea breeze with Mistral and weaker Mistral due to the enhanced friction while, during autumn, absence of convective turbulence leads to substantial acceleration as low-level jets are generated in the stably stratified planetary boundary layer. At the exit of the Rhône valley, the gap flow dynamics dominates, whereas at the lee of the Alps, the dynamics is driven by the relative contribution of "flow around" and "flow over" mechanisms, upstream of the Alps. This paper analyses vertical velocity and turbulence, i.e. turbulent dissipation rate, with data obtained by the same UHF wind profilers during the same Mistral events. In autumn, the motions are found to be globally and significantly subsident, which is coherent for a dry, cold and stable flow approaching the sea, and the turbulence is found to be of pure dynamical origin (wind shears and mountain/lee wave breaking, which is coherent with non-convective situations. In summer, due to the ground heating and to the interactions with thermal circulation, the

  12. Vertical velocity and turbulence aspects during Mistral events as observed by UHF wind profilers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caccia, J.; Guénard, V.; Benech, B.; Campistron, B.; Drobinski, P.

    2004-11-01

    The general purpose of this paper is to experimentally study mesoscale dynamical aspects of the Mistral in the coastal area located at the exit of the Rhône-valley. The Mistral is a northerly low-level flow blowing in southern France along the Rhône-valley axis, located between the French Alps and the Massif Central, towards the Mediterranean Sea. The experimental data are obtained by UHF wind profilers deployed during two major field campaigns, MAP (Mesoscale Alpine Program) in autumn 1999, and ESCOMPTE (Expérience sur Site pour COntraindre les Modèles de Pollution atmosphériques et de Transports d'Emission) in summer 2001. Thanks to the use of the time evolution of the vertical profile of the horizontal wind vector, recent works have shown that the dynamics of the Mistral is highly dependent on the season because of the occurrence of specific synoptic patterns. In addition, during summer, thermal forcing leads to a combination of sea breeze with Mistral and weaker Mistral due to the enhanced friction while, during autumn, absence of convective turbulence leads to substantial acceleration as low-level jets are generated in the stably stratified planetary boundary layer. At the exit of the Rhône valley, the gap flow dynamics dominates, whereas at the lee of the Alps, the dynamics is driven by the relative contribution of "flow around" and "flow over" mechanisms, upstream of the Alps. This paper analyses vertical velocity and turbulence, i.e. turbulent dissipation rate, with data obtained by the same UHF wind profilers during the same Mistral events. In autumn, the motions are found to be globally and significantly subsident, which is coherent for a dry, cold and stable flow approaching the sea, and the turbulence is found to be of pure dynamical origin (wind shears and mountain/lee wave breaking), which is coherent with non-convective situations. In summer, due to the ground heating and to the interactions with thermal circulation, the vertical motions are

  13. The role of extreme drought events in modelling the distribution of beech at its xeric limit

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rasztovits, Ervin; Berki, Imre; Eredics, Attila; Móricz, Norbert

    2014-05-01

    Context: Projections of species distribution models (SDMs) for future climate conditions are based on long term mean climate data. For management and conservation issues SDMs have been extensively used, but it is not tested whether models that are successful in predicting current distributions are equally powerful in predicting distributions under future climates. Methods: Observations after 2003 confirms that extreme drought events played an important role in driving beech mortality at low-elevation xeric limits. The objective of this study was (1) to set up a simple extreme drought event based vitality model (EDM) using sanitary logging information as a proxy of vitality response of beech and (2) to compare the spatial pattern of the predicted vitality loss provided by the EDM with the distribution limits of the SDMs for three terms (2025, 2050 and 2100) in Hungary to assess model performance. Results: Prediction for vitality loss for 2025 obtained from the EDM was in agreement with those of the SDM, but for the end of the century the EDM predicted a more serious decline in almost all regions of Hungary. Conclusion: The result of the comparison suggests that the increasing frequency and severity of extremes might play a more important role in limiting the distribution of beech in the future near to the xeric limit than long-term means.

  14. Observations and modeling of seismic background noise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peterson, Jon R.

    1993-01-01

    The preparation of this report had two purposes. One was to present a catalog of seismic background noise spectra obtained from a worldwide network of seismograph stations. The other purpose was to refine and document models of seismic background noise that have been in use for several years. The second objective was, in fact, the principal reason that this study was initiated and influenced the procedures used in collecting and processing the data.With a single exception, all of the data used in this study were extracted from the digital data archive at the U.S. Geological Survey's Albuquerque Seismological Laboratory (ASL). This archive dates from 1972 when ASL first began deploying digital seismograph systems and collecting and distributing digital data under the sponsorship of the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA). There have been many changes and additions to the global seismograph networks during the past twenty years, but perhaps none as significant as the current deployment of very broadband seismographs by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the University of California San Diego (UCSD) under the scientific direction of the IRIS consortium. The new data acquisition systems have extended the bandwidth and resolution of seismic recording, and they utilize high-density recording media that permit the continuous recording of broadband data. The data improvements and continuous recording greatly benefit and simplify surveys of seismic background noise.Although there are many other sources of digital data, the ASL archive data were used almost exclusively because of accessibility and because the data systems and their calibration are well documented for the most part. Fortunately, the ASL archive contains high-quality data from other stations in addition to those deployed by the USGS. Included are data from UCSD IRIS/IDA stations, the Regional Seismic Test Network (RSTN) deployed by Sandia National Laboratories (SNL), and the TERRAscope network

  15. Space geodetic observations of repeating slow slip events beneath the Bonin Islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arisa, Deasy; Heki, Kosuke

    2017-09-01

    The Pacific Plate subducts beneath the Philippine Sea Plate along the Izu-Bonin Trench. We investigated crustal movements at the Bonin Islands, using Global Navigation Satellite System and geodetic Very Long Baseline Interferometry data to reveal how the two plates converge in this subduction zone. These islands are located ∼100 km from the trench, just at the middle between the volcanic arc and the trench, making these islands suitable for detecting signatures of episodic deformation such as slow slip events (SSEs). During 2007-2016, we found five SSEs repeating quasi-periodically with similar displacement patterns. In estimating their fault parameters, we assumed that the fault lies on the prescribed plate boundary, and optimized the size, shape and position of the fault and dislocation vectors. Average fault slip was ∼5 cm, and the average moment magnitude was ∼6.9. We also found one SSE occurred in 2008 updip of the repeating SSE in response to an M6 class interplate earthquake. In spite of the frequent occurrence of SSEs, there is no evidence for long-term strain accumulation in the Bonin Islands that may lead to future megathrust earthquakes. Plate convergence in Mariana-type subduction zones may occur, to a large extent, episodically as repeating SSEs.

  16. Disaster Response Modeling Through Discrete-Event Simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jeffrey; Gilmer, Graham

    2012-01-01

    Organizations today are required to plan against a rapidly changing, high-cost environment. This is especially true for first responders to disasters and other incidents, where critical decisions must be made in a timely manner to save lives and resources. Discrete-event simulations enable organizations to make better decisions by visualizing complex processes and the impact of proposed changes before they are implemented. A discrete-event simulation using Simio software has been developed to effectively analyze and quantify the imagery capabilities of domestic aviation resources conducting relief missions. This approach has helped synthesize large amounts of data to better visualize process flows, manage resources, and pinpoint capability gaps and shortfalls in disaster response scenarios. Simulation outputs and results have supported decision makers in the understanding of high risk locations, key resource placement, and the effectiveness of proposed improvements.

  17. Detection of a Type IIn Supernova in Optical Follow-up Observations of IceCube Neutrino Events

    OpenAIRE

    Aartsen, M. G.; Abraham, K.; Ackermann, M.; Adams, J.; Aguilar, J. A.; Ahlers, M.; Ahrens, M.; Altmann, D.; Anderson, T.; Archinger, M.; Arguelles, C.; Arlen, T. C.; Auffenberg, J.; Bai, X.; Barwick, S. W.

    2015-01-01

    The IceCube neutrino observatory pursues a follow-up program selecting interesting neutrino events in real-time and issuing alerts for electromagnetic follow-up observations. In 2012 March, the most significant neutrino alert during the first three years of operation was issued by IceCube. In the follow-up observations performed by the Palomar Transient Factory (PTF), a Type IIn supernova (SN IIn) PTF12csy was found 0.degrees 2 away from the neutrino alert direction, with an error radius of 0...

  18. Modeling sediment yield in small catchments at event scale: Model comparison, development and evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, Z.; Leung, L. R.; Li, H. Y.; Tesfa, T. K.

    2017-12-01

    Sediment yield (SY) has significant impacts on river biogeochemistry and aquatic ecosystems but it is rarely represented in Earth System Models (ESMs). Existing SY models focus on estimating SY from large river basins or individual catchments so it is not clear how well they simulate SY in ESMs at larger spatial scales and globally. In this study, we compare the strengths and weaknesses of eight well-known SY models in simulating annual mean SY at about 400 small catchments ranging in size from 0.22 to 200 km2 in the US, Canada and Puerto Rico. In addition, we also investigate the performance of these models in simulating event-scale SY at six catchments in the US using high-quality hydrological inputs. The model comparison shows that none of the models can reproduce the SY at large spatial scales but the Morgan model performs the better than others despite its simplicity. In all model simulations, large underestimates occur in catchments with very high SY. A possible pathway to reduce the discrepancies is to incorporate sediment detachment by landsliding, which is currently not included in the models being evaluated. We propose a new SY model that is based on the Morgan model but including a landsliding soil detachment scheme that is being developed. Along with the results of the model comparison and evaluation, preliminary findings from the revised Morgan model will be presented.

  19. Possible effect of extreme solar energetic particle event of 20 January 2005 on polar stratospheric aerosols: direct observational evidence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. A. Mironova

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Energetic cosmic rays are the main source of ionization of the low-middle atmosphere, leading to associated changes in atmospheric properties. Via the hypothetical influence of ionization on aerosol growth and facilitated formation of clouds, this may be an important indirect link relating solar variability to climate. This effect is highly debated, however, since the proposed theoretical mechanisms still remain illusive and qualitative, and observational evidence is inconclusive and controversial. Therefore, important questions regarding the existence and magnitude of the effect, and particularly the fraction of aerosol particles that can form and grow, are still open. Here we present empirical evidence of the possible effect caused by cosmic rays upon polar stratospheric aerosols, based on a case study of an extreme solar energetic particle (SEP event of 20 January 2005. Using aerosol data obtained over polar regions from different satellites with optical instruments that were operating during January 2005, such as the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment III (SAGE III, and Optical Spectrograph and Infrared Imaging System (OSIRIS, we found a significant simultaneous change in aerosol properties in both the Southern and Northern Polar regions in temporal association with the SEP event. We speculate that ionization of the atmosphere, which was abnormally high in the lower stratosphere during the extreme SEP event, might have led to formation of new particles and/or growth of preexisting ultrafine particles in the polar stratospheric region. However, a detailed interpretation of the effect is left for subsequent studies. This is the first time high vertical resolution measurements have been used to discuss possible production of stratospheric aerosols under the influence of cosmic ray induced ionization. The observed effect is marginally detectable for the analyzed severe SEP event and can be undetectable for the majority of weak

  20. Tethered to the EHR: Primary Care Physician Workload Assessment Using EHR Event Log Data and Time-Motion Observations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arndt, Brian G; Beasley, John W; Watkinson, Michelle D; Temte, Jonathan L; Tuan, Wen-Jan; Sinsky, Christine A; Gilchrist, Valerie J

    2017-09-01

    Primary care physicians spend nearly 2 hours on electronic health record (EHR) tasks per hour of direct patient care. Demand for non-face-to-face care, such as communication through a patient portal and administrative tasks, is increasing and contributing to burnout. The goal of this study was to assess time allocated by primary care physicians within the EHR as indicated by EHR user-event log data, both during clinic hours (defined as 8:00 am to 6:00 pm Monday through Friday) and outside clinic hours. We conducted a retrospective cohort study of 142 family medicine physicians in a single system in southern Wisconsin. All Epic (Epic Systems Corporation) EHR interactions were captured from "event logging" records over a 3-year period for both direct patient care and non-face-to-face activities, and were validated by direct observation. EHR events were assigned to 1 of 15 EHR task categories and allocated to either during or after clinic hours. Clinicians spent 355 minutes (5.9 hours) of an 11.4-hour workday in the EHR per weekday per 1.0 clinical full-time equivalent: 269 minutes (4.5 hours) during clinic hours and 86 minutes (1.4 hours) after clinic hours. Clerical and administrative tasks including documentation, order entry, billing and coding, and system security accounted for nearly one-half of the total EHR time (157 minutes, 44.2%). Inbox management accounted for another 85 minutes (23.7%). Primary care physicians spend more than one-half of their workday, nearly 6 hours, interacting with the EHR during and after clinic hours. EHR event logs can identify areas of EHR-related work that could be delegated, thus reducing workload, improving professional satisfaction, and decreasing burnout. Direct time-motion observations validated EHR-event log data as a reliable source of information regarding clinician time allocation. © 2017 Annals of Family Medicine, Inc.

  1. Possible effect of extreme solar energetic particle event of 20 January 2005 on polar stratospheric aerosols: direct observational evidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mironova, I. A.; Usoskin, I. G.; Kovaltsov, G. A.; Petelina, S. V.

    2012-01-01

    Energetic cosmic rays are the main source of ionization of the low-middle atmosphere, leading to associated changes in atmospheric properties. Via the hypothetical influence of ionization on aerosol growth and facilitated formation of clouds, this may be an important indirect link relating solar variability to climate. This effect is highly debated, however, since the proposed theoretical mechanisms still remain illusive and qualitative, and observational evidence is inconclusive and controversial. Therefore, important questions regarding the existence and magnitude of the effect, and particularly the fraction of aerosol particles that can form and grow, are still open. Here we present empirical evidence of the possible effect caused by cosmic rays upon polar stratospheric aerosols, based on a case study of an extreme solar energetic particle (SEP) event of 20 January 2005. Using aerosol data obtained over polar regions from different satellites with optical instruments that were operating during January 2005, such as the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment III (SAGE III), and Optical Spectrograph and Infrared Imaging System (OSIRIS), we found a significant simultaneous change in aerosol properties in both the Southern and Northern Polar regions in temporal association with the SEP event. We speculate that ionization of the atmosphere, which was abnormally high in the lower stratosphere during the extreme SEP event, might have led to formation of new particles and/or growth of preexisting ultrafine particles in the polar stratospheric region. However, a detailed interpretation of the effect is left for subsequent studies. This is the first time high vertical resolution measurements have been used to discuss possible production of stratospheric aerosols under the influence of cosmic ray induced ionization. The observed effect is marginally detectable for the analyzed severe SEP event and can be undetectable for the majority of weak-moderate events. The present

  2. Forward modeling transient brightenings and microflares around an active region observed with Hi-C

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kobelski, Adam R. [Now at National Radio Astronomy Observatory, P.O. Box 2, Green Bank, WV 24944 (United States); McKenzie, David E., E-mail: kobelski@solar.physics.montana.edu [Department of Physics, P.O. Box 173840, Montana State University, Bozeman, MT 59717-3840 (United States)

    2014-10-20

    Small-scale flare-like brightenings around active regions are among the smallest and most fundamental of energetic transient events in the corona, providing a testbed for models of heating and active region dynamics. In a previous study, we modeled a large collection of these microflares observed with Hinode/X-Ray Telescope (XRT) using EBTEL and found that they required multiple heating events, but could not distinguish between multiple heating events on a single strand, or multiple strands each experiencing a single heating event. We present here a similar study, but with extreme-ultraviolet data of Active Region 11520 from the High Resolution Coronal Imager (Hi-C) sounding rocket. Hi-C provides an order of magnitude improvement to the spatial resolution of XRT, and a cooler temperature sensitivity, which combine to provide significant improvements to our ability to detect and model microflare activity around active regions. We have found that at the spatial resolution of Hi-C (≈0.''3), the events occur much more frequently than expected (57 events detected, only 1 or 2 expected), and are most likely made from strands of the order of 100 km wide, each of which is impulsively heated with multiple heating events. These findings tend to support bursty reconnection as the cause of the energy release responsible for the brightenings.

  3. Recurrence models of volcanic events: Applications to volcanic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Crowe, B.M.; Picard, R.; Valentine, G.; Perry, F.V.

    1992-01-01

    An assessment of the risk of future volcanism has been conducted for isolation of high-level radioactive waste at the potential Yucca Mountain site in southern Nevada. Risk used in this context refers to a combined assessment of the probability and consequences of future volcanic activity. Past studies established bounds on the probability of magmatic disruption of a repository. These bounds were revised as additional data were gathered from site characterization studies. The probability of direct intersection of a potential repository located in an eight km 2 area of Yucca Mountain by ascending basalt magma was bounded by the range of 10 -8 to 10 -10 yr -1 2 . The consequences of magmatic disruption of a repository were estimated in previous studies to be limited. The exact releases from such an event are dependent on the strike of an intruding basalt dike relative to the repository geometry, the timing of the basaltic event relative to the age of the radioactive waste and the mechanisms of release and dispersal of the waste radionuclides in the accessible environment. The combined low probability of repository disruption and the limited releases associated with this event established the basis for the judgement that the risk of future volcanism was relatively low. It was reasoned that that risk of future volcanism was not likely to result in disqualification of the potential Yucca Mountain site

  4. NUMERICAL MODELING OF THE 2009 IMPACT EVENT ON JUPITER

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pond, Jarrad W. T.; Palotai, Csaba; Gabriel, Travis; Harrington, Joseph; Rebeli, Noemi [Planetary Sciences Group, Department of Physics, University of Central Florida, Orlando, FL 32816-2385 (United States); Korycansky, Donald G., E-mail: jarradpond@gmail.com [Department of Earth and Planetary Science, University of California, Santa Cruz, CA 95064 (United States)

    2012-02-01

    We have investigated the 2009 July impact event on Jupiter using the ZEUS-MP 2 three-dimensional hydrodynamics code. We studied the impact itself and the following plume development. Eight impactors were considered: 0.5 km and 1 km porous ({rho} = 1.760 g cm{sup -3}) and non-porous ({rho} = 2.700 g cm{sup -3}) basalt impactors, and 0.5 km and 1 km porous ({rho} = 0.600 g cm{sup -3}) and non-porous ({rho} = 0.917 g cm{sup -3}) ice impactors. The simulations consisted of these bolides colliding with Jupiter at an incident angle of {theta} = 69 Degree-Sign from the vertical and with an impact velocity of v = 61.4 km s{sup -1}. Our simulations show the development of relatively larger, faster plumes created after impacts involving 1 km diameter bodies. Comparing simulations of the 2009 event with simulations of the Shoemaker-Levy 9 (SL9) events reveals a difference in plume development, with the higher incident angle of the 2009 impact leading to a shallower terminal depth and a smaller and slower plume. We also studied the amount of dynamical chaos present in the simulations conducted at the 2009 incident angle. Compared to the chaos of the SL9 simulations, where {theta} Almost-Equal-To 45 Degree-Sign , we find no significant difference in chaos at the higher 2009 incident angle.

  5. Aligning observed and modelled behaviour based on workflow decomposition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Lu; Du, YuYue; Liu, Wei

    2017-09-01

    When business processes are mostly supported by information systems, the availability of event logs generated from these systems, as well as the requirement of appropriate process models are increasing. Business processes can be discovered, monitored and enhanced by extracting process-related information. However, some events cannot be correctly identified because of the explosion of the amount of event logs. Therefore, a new process mining technique is proposed based on a workflow decomposition method in this paper. Petri nets (PNs) are used to describe business processes, and then conformance checking of event logs and process models is investigated. A decomposition approach is proposed to divide large process models and event logs into several separate parts that can be analysed independently; while an alignment approach based on a state equation method in PN theory enhances the performance of conformance checking. Both approaches are implemented in programmable read-only memory (ProM). The correctness and effectiveness of the proposed methods are illustrated through experiments.

  6. Hydraulic description of a flood event with optical remote sensors: a constructive constraint on modelling uncertainties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Battiston, Stéphanie; Allenbach, Bernard

    2010-05-01

    compartments; high resolution optical imagery allow the exhaustive inventory of breaches and overflows; turbidity variations and draw-off give information on stream directions. These facts are of primary interest to help in deriving a firm understanding of the flooding processes, but also comprise a powerful source for the necessary parameterization and/or calibration of hydraulic models. Thus the accuracy of flood extents derived from remote sensing data could, on the one hand, be valuable inputs to historical flood info-bases within overall risk-linked databases, and on the other hand, test the validity of hydrological modelling, while helping to lift equifinality uncertainties. These first investigations highlight that space imagery of events constitutes an unrivalled tool for flood disaster observation. This 2D record is complementary to all field measurements and the integration of "space derived flood products" is valuable for all stages of risk management. This potential of EO optical sensors for flood monitoring is also confirmed in a detailed analysis making a qualitative and quantitative evaluation of the results, confronting ten optical and radar remote sensing platforms with field observations.

  7. Vertical velocity and turbulence aspects during Mistral events as observed by UHF wind profilers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J.-L. Caccia

    2004-11-01

    Full Text Available The general purpose of this paper is to experimentally study mesoscale dynamical aspects of the Mistral in the coastal area located at the exit of the Rhône-valley. The Mistral is a northerly low-level flow blowing in southern France along the Rhône-valley axis, located between the French Alps and the Massif Central, towards the Mediterranean Sea. The experimental data are obtained by UHF wind profilers deployed during two major field campaigns, MAP (Mesoscale Alpine Program in autumn 1999, and ESCOMPTE (Expérience sur Site pour COntraindre les Modèles de Pollution atmosphériques et de Transports d'Emission in summer 2001.

    Thanks to the use of the time evolution of the vertical profile of the horizontal wind vector, recent works have shown that the dynamics of the Mistral is highly dependent on the season because of the occurrence of specific synoptic patterns. In addition, during summer, thermal forcing leads to a combination of sea breeze with Mistral and weaker Mistral due to the enhanced friction while, during autumn, absence of convective turbulence leads to substantial acceleration as low-level jets are generated in the stably stratified planetary boundary layer. At the exit of the Rhône valley, the gap flow dynamics dominates, whereas at the lee of the Alps, the dynamics is driven by the relative contribution of "flow around" and "flow over" mechanisms, upstream of the Alps. This paper analyses vertical velocity and turbulence, i.e. turbulent dissipation rate, with data obtained by the same UHF wind profilers during the same Mistral events.

    In autumn, the motions are found to be globally and significantly subsident, which is coherent for a dry, cold and stable flow approaching the sea, and the turbulence is found to be of pure dynamical origin (wind shears and mountain/lee wave breaking, which is coherent with non-convective situations.

    Predicting Individual Action Switching in Passively Experienced and Continuous Interactive Tasks Using the Fluid Events Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriel A. Radvansky

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The Fluid Events Model is aimed at predicting changes in the actions people take on a moment-by-moment basis. In contrast with other research on action selection, this work does not investigate why some course of action was selected, but rather the likelihood of discontinuing the current course of action and selecting another in the near future. This is done using both task-based and experience-based factors. Prior work evaluated this model in the context of trial-by-trial, independent, interactive events, such as choosing how to copy a figure of a line drawing. In this paper, we extend this model to more covert event experiences, such as reading narratives, as well as to continuous interactive events, such as playing a video game. To this end, the model was applied to existing data sets of reading time and event segmentation for written and picture stories. It was also applied to existing data sets of performance in a strategy board game, an aerial combat game, and a first person shooter game in which a participant’s current state was dependent on prior events. The results revealed that the model predicted behavior changes well, taking into account both the theoretically defined structure of the described events, as well as a person’s prior experience. Thus, theories of event cognition can benefit from efforts that take into account not only how events in the world are structured, but also how people experience those events.

  8. Predicting Individual Action Switching in Covert and Continuous Interactive Tasks Using the Fluid Events Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Radvansky, Gabriel A; D'Mello, Sidney K; Abbott, Robert G; Bixler, Robert E

    2016-01-01

    The Fluid Events Model is aimed at predicting changes in the actions people take on a moment-by-moment basis. In contrast with other research on action selection, this work does not investigate why some course of action was selected, but rather the likelihood of discontinuing the current course of action and selecting another in the near future. This is done using both task-based and experience-based factors. Prior work evaluated this model in the context of trial-by-trial, independent, interactive events, such as choosing how to copy a figure of a line drawing. In this paper, we extend this model to more covert event experiences, such as reading narratives, as well as to continuous interactive events, such as playing a video game. To this end, the model was applied to existing data sets of reading time and event segmentation for written and picture stories. It was also applied to existing data sets of performance in a strategy board game, an aerial combat game, and a first person shooter game in which a participant's current state was dependent on prior events. The results revealed that the model predicted behavior changes well, taking into account both the theoretically defined structure of the described events, as well as a person's prior experience. Thus, theories of event cognition can benefit from efforts that take into account not only how events in the world are structured, but also how people experience those events.

  9. The sequentially discounting autoregressive (SDAR) method for on-line automatic seismic event detecting on long term observation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, L.; Toshioka, T.; Nakajima, T.; Narita, A.; Xue, Z.

    2017-12-01

    In recent years, more and more Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) studies focus on seismicity monitoring. For the safety management of geological CO2 storage at Tomakomai, Hokkaido, Japan, an Advanced Traffic Light System (ATLS) combined different seismic messages (magnitudes, phases, distributions et al.) is proposed for injection controlling. The primary task for ATLS is the seismic events detection in a long-term sustained time series record. Considering the time-varying characteristics of Signal to Noise Ratio (SNR) of a long-term record and the uneven energy distributions of seismic event waveforms will increase the difficulty in automatic seismic detecting, in this work, an improved probability autoregressive (AR) method for automatic seismic event detecting is applied. This algorithm, called sequentially discounting AR learning (SDAR), can identify the effective seismic event in the time series through the Change Point detection (CPD) of the seismic record. In this method, an anomaly signal (seismic event) can be designed as a change point on the time series (seismic record). The statistical model of the signal in the neighborhood of event point will change, because of the seismic event occurrence. This means the SDAR aims to find the statistical irregularities of the record thought CPD. There are 3 advantages of SDAR. 1. Anti-noise ability. The SDAR does not use waveform messages (such as amplitude, energy, polarization) for signal detecting. Therefore, it is an appropriate technique for low SNR data. 2. Real-time estimation. When new data appears in the record, the probability distribution models can be automatic updated by SDAR for on-line processing. 3. Discounting property. the SDAR introduces a discounting parameter to decrease the influence of present statistic value on future data. It makes SDAR as a robust algorithm for non-stationary signal processing. Within these 3 advantages, the SDAR method can handle the non-stationary time-varying long

  10. Human megakaryoblastic proliferation and differentiation events observed by phase-contrast cinematography.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boll, I T; Domeyer, C; Bührer, C

    1997-01-01

    Microcinematographic documentation of mitoses, amitoses, endomitoses, or cytoplasmic fusion shortly after completion of mitoses was done in bone marrow specimens of patients with quantitative platelet disorders and controls. In patients with platelet disorders, most mitoses with cell duplication occurred in large promegakaryocytes after 4-fold nuclear and cytoplasmic enhancement. Normal specimens showed polyploidization happening in small megakaryoblasts, while mitoses with cell duplication were seen only after cultivation in freeze-thawed sera of patients with platelet disorders. Frequently, lymphocytes were observed to contact megakaryoblastic cells undergoing mitoses, amitoses and endomitoses and to enter the cytoplasm of megakaryocytes (emperipolesis), leaving it again after several hours.

  11. Multiband Lightcurve of Tabby’s Star: Observations and Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yin, Yao; Wilcox, Alejandro; Boyajian, Tabetha S.

    2018-06-01

    Since March 2017, The Thacher Observatory in California has been monitoring changes in brightness of KIC 8462852 (Tabby's Star), an F-type main sequence star whose irregular dimming behavior was first discovered by Tabetha Boyajian by examining Kepler data. We obtained over 20k observations over 135 nights in 2017 in 4 photometric bands, and detected 4 dip events greater than 1%. The relative magnitude of each dip compared across our 4 different photometric bands provides critical information regarding the nature of the obscuring material, and we present a preliminary analysis of these events. The Thacher Observatory is continuing its monitoring of Tabby’s Star in 2018.

  12. Correlation between human observer performance and model observer performance in differential phase contrast CT

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, Ke; Garrett, John; Chen, Guang-Hong

    2013-01-01

    Purpose: With the recently expanding interest and developments in x-ray differential phase contrast CT (DPC-CT), the evaluation of its task-specific detection performance and comparison with the corresponding absorption CT under a given radiation dose constraint become increasingly important. Mathematical model observers are often used to quantify the performance of imaging systems, but their correlations with actual human observers need to be confirmed for each new imaging method. This work is an investigation of the effects of stochastic DPC-CT noise on the correlation of detection performance between model and human observers with signal-known-exactly (SKE) detection tasks.Methods: The detectabilities of different objects (five disks with different diameters and two breast lesion masses) embedded in an experimental DPC-CT noise background were assessed using both model and human observers. The detectability of the disk and lesion signals was then measured using five types of model observers including the prewhitening ideal observer, the nonprewhitening (NPW) observer, the nonprewhitening observer with eye filter and internal noise (NPWEi), the prewhitening observer with eye filter and internal noise (PWEi), and the channelized Hotelling observer (CHO). The same objects were also evaluated by four human observers using the two-alternative forced choice method. The results from the model observer experiment were quantitatively compared to the human observer results to assess the correlation between the two techniques.Results: The contrast-to-detail (CD) curve generated by the human observers for the disk-detection experiments shows that the required contrast to detect a disk is inversely proportional to the square root of the disk size. Based on the CD curves, the ideal and NPW observers tend to systematically overestimate the performance of the human observers. The NPWEi and PWEi observers did not predict human performance well either, as the slopes of their CD

  13. A diffusive model for halo width growth during vertical displacement events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eidietis, N.W.; Humphreys, D.A.

    2011-01-01

    The electromagnetic loads produced by halo currents during vertical displacement events (VDEs) impose stringent requirements on the strength of ITER in-vessel components. A predictive understanding of halo current evolution is essential for ensuring the robust design of these components. A significant factor determining that evolution is the plasma resistance, which is a function of three quantities: the resistivities of the core and halo regions, and the halo region width. A diffusive model of halo width growth during VDEs has been developed, which provides one part of a physics basis for predictive halo current simulations. The diffusive model was motivated by DIII-D observations that VDEs with cold post-thermal quench plasma and a current decay time much faster than the vertical motion (type I VDE) possess much wider halo region widths than warmer plasma VDEs, where the current decay is much slower than the vertical motion (type II). A 2D finite element code is used to model the diffusion of toroidal halo current during selected type I and type II DIII-D VDEs. The model assumes a core plasma region within the last closed flux surface (LCFS) diffusing current into a halo plasma filling the vessel outside the LCFS. LCFS motion and plasma temperature are prescribed from experimental observations. The halo width evolution produced by this model compares favourably with experimental measurements of type I and type II toroidal halo current width evolution.

  14. A Bayesian Model for Event-based Trust

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Mogens; Krukow, Karl; Sassone, Vladimiro

    2007-01-01

    The application scenarios envisioned for ‘global ubiquitous computing’ have unique requirements that are often incompatible with traditional security paradigms. One alternative currently being investigated is to support security decision-making by explicit representation of principals' trusting...... of the systems from the computational trust literature; the comparison is derived formally, rather than obtained via experimental simulation as traditionally done. With this foundation in place, we formalise a general notion of information about past behaviour, based on event structures. This yields a flexible...

  15. Integrating Continuous-Time and Discrete-Event Concepts in Process Modelling, Simulation and Control

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beek, van D.A.; Gordijn, S.H.F.; Rooda, J.E.; Ertas, A.

    1995-01-01

    Currently, modelling of systems in the process industry requires the use of different specification languages for the specification of the discrete-event and continuous-time subsystems. In this way, models are restricted to individual subsystems of either a continuous-time or discrete-event nature.

  16. Boosting joint models for longitudinal and time-to-event data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Waldmann, Elisabeth; Taylor-Robinson, David; Klein, Nadja

    2017-01-01

    Joint models for longitudinal and time-to-event data have gained a lot of attention in the last few years as they are a helpful technique clinical studies where longitudinal outcomes are recorded alongside event times. Those two processes are often linked and the two outcomes should thus be model...

  17. Irregularities in Early Seismic Rupture Propagation for Large Events in a Crustal Earthquake Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lapusta, N.; Rice, J. R.; Rice, J. R.

    2001-12-01

    We study early seismic propagation of model earthquakes in a 2-D model of a vertical strike-slip fault with depth-variable rate and state friction properties. Our model earthquakes are obtained in fully dynamic simulations of sequences of instabilities on a fault subjected to realistically slow tectonic loading (Lapusta et al., JGR, 2000). This work is motivated by results of Ellsworth and Beroza (Science, 1995), who observe that for many earthquakes, far-field velocity seismograms during initial stages of dynamic rupture propagation have irregular fluctuations which constitute a "seismic nucleation phase". In our simulations, we find that such irregularities in velocity seismograms can be caused by two factors: (1) rupture propagation over regions of stress concentrations and (2) partial arrest of rupture in neighboring creeping regions. As rupture approaches a region of stress concentration, it sees increasing background stress and its moment acceleration (to which velocity seismographs in the far field are proportional) increases. After the peak in stress concentration, the rupture sees decreasing background stress and moment acceleration decreases. Hence a fluctuation in moment acceleration is created. If rupture starts sufficiently far from a creeping region, then partial arrest of rupture in the creeping region causes a decrease in moment acceleration. As the other parts of rupture continue to develop, moment acceleration then starts to grow again, and a fluctuation again results. Other factors may cause the irregularities in moment acceleration, e.g., phenomena such as branching and/or intermittent rupture propagation (Poliakov et al., submitted to JGR, 2001) which we have not studied here. Regions of stress concentration are created in our model by arrest of previous smaller events as well as by interactions with creeping regions. One such region is deep in the fault zone, and is caused by the temperature-induced transition from seismogenic to creeping

  18. A Study on Modeling Approaches in Discrete Event Simulation Using Design Patterns

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Kim, Leng Koh

    2007-01-01

    .... This modeling paradigm encompasses several modeling approaches active role of events, entities as independent components, and chaining components to enable interactivity that are excellent ways of building a DES system...

  19. Spatio-Temporal Modeling of the Earth Events and Moving of Celestial Bodies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bulatova, Natalia P.

    2011-09-01

    It is well known that periodical and cyclical movements of cosmic sources of gravitation considerably affect Earth's geospheres (atmosphere, hydrosphere, crust, etc.) by producing tides and related phenomena, as well as the state of tectonic blocks, lithosphere plates and deep crust fractures. The result of such influence may be earthquakes and other catastrophes. Nowadays, the question modeling of geophysical processes is considerably actual. Thus studies in area of Earth' sciences have been moved from practice of observation of separate phenomena to the systematic quantitative investigation in interdisciplinary areas. A system of two modules is proposed by the author each using its own system of coordinates: (1) the model of three-dimensional spherical body of the Earth with the system of coordinates (III) including the time of events that happened on the Earth and (2) a compact model of the relative motion of celestial bodies in space and time as vectors that are changing their directions. Note the data bases of the Earth sciences have been used to construct the module (1), while the module (2) has been built using astronomic parameters of celestial bodies. The module (2) is known as "Method of moving source" (MDS) [1, 2]. As a result, on the basis of systematization, joint analysis and complexity of cosmic data and databases of Earth sciences the cause-and-effect relations between events on Earth and space bodies are established.

  1. A review on earthquake and tsunami hazards of the Sumatran plate boundary: Observing expected and unexpected events after the Aceh-Andaman Mw 9.15 event

    Science.gov (United States)

    Natawidjaja, D.

    2013-12-01

    The 600-km Mentawai megathrust had produced two giant historical earthquakes generating big tsunamies in 1797 and 1833. The SuGAr (Sumatran GPS continuous Array) network, first deployed in 2002, shows that the subduction interface underlying Mentawai Islands and the neighboring Nias section in the north are fully locked, thus confirming their potential hazards. Outreach activities to warn people about earthquake and tsunamies had been started since 4 months prior to the 26 December 2004 in Aceh-Andaman earthquake (Mw 9.15). Later in March 2005, the expected megathrust earthquake (Mw 8.7) hit Nias-Simelue area and killed about 2000 people, releasing the accumulated strain since the previous 1861 event (~Mw 8.5). After then many Mw 7s and smaller events occured in Sumatra, filling areas between and around two giant ruptures and heighten seismicities in neighboring areas. In March 2007, the twin earthquake disaster (Mw 6.3 and Mw 6.4) broke two consecutive segments of the transcurrent Sumatran fault in the Singkarak lake area. Only six month later, in September 2007, the rapid-fire-failures of three consecutive megathrust patches (Mw 8.5, Mw 7.9 and Mw 7.0) ruptured a 250-km-section of the southern part of the Mentawai. It was a big surprise since this particular section is predicted as a very-low coupled section from modelling the SuGAr data, and hence, bypassing the more potential fully coupled section of the Mentawai in between the 2005 and 2007 ruptures. In September 2009, a rare unexpected event (Mw 7.6) suddenly ruptured an intracrustal fault in the subducted slab down under Padang City and killed about 500 people. Padang had been in preparation for the next tsunami but not for strong shakes from near by major earthquake. This event seems to have remotely triggered another Mw 6.7 on the Sumatran fault near kerinci Lake, a few hundred kilometers south of Padang, in less than a day. Just a year later, in November 2010, again an unexpected large slow-slip event of

  2. Hypertension control after an initial cardiac event among Medicare patients with diabetes mellitus: A multidisciplinary group practice observational study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaddha, Ashish; Smith, Maureen A; Palta, Mari; Johnson, Heather M

    2018-04-23

    Patients with diabetes mellitus and cardiovascular disease have a high risk of mortality and/or recurrent cardiovascular events. Hypertension control is critical for secondary prevention of cardiovascular events. The objective was to determine rates and predictors of achieving hypertension control among Medicare patients with diabetes and uncontrolled hypertension after hospital discharge for an initial cardiac event. A retrospective analysis of linked electronic health record and Medicare data was performed. The primary outcome was hypertension control within 1 year after hospital discharge for an initial cardiac event. Cox proportional hazard models assessed sociodemographics, medications, utilization, and comorbidities as predictors of control. Medicare patients with diabetes were more likely to achieve hypertension control when prescribed beta-blockers at discharge or with a history of more specialty visits. Adults ≥ 80 were more likely to achieve control with diuretics. These findings demonstrate the importance of implementing guideline-directed multidisciplinary care in this complex and high-risk population. ©2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  3. Five-quark model with flavour-changing neutral current and dimuon events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, J.E.; Kang, K.

    1976-01-01

    The recent dimuon data seem to suggest either the necessity of flavor-changing hadronic neutral current or proliferation of quarks beyond charm or both. It is shown how a five-quark model based on simple gauge group SU(2) x U(1) x U(1)' can generate the flavor-changing, in particular the needed charm-changing, neutral current in a natural fashion. A substantial D 0 --D -0 mixing can be obtained to account for the ''wrong-sign'' dimuons observed in ν/sub μ/-induced reactions. Because of the role of the extra neutral boson in this model, the flavor-changing neutral current is decoupled from leptonic sectors, thus suppressing the trimuon events as experiments indicate thus far

  4. Modeling Psychological Contract Violation using Dual Regime Models: An Event-based Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hofmans, Joeri

    2017-01-01

    A good understanding of the dynamics of psychological contract violation requires theories, research methods and statistical models that explicitly recognize that violation feelings follow from an event that violates one's acceptance limits, after which interpretative processes are set into motion, determining the intensity of these violation feelings. Whereas theories-in the form of the dynamic model of the psychological contract-and research methods-in the form of daily diary research and experience sampling research-are available by now, the statistical tools to model such a two-stage process are still lacking. The aim of the present paper is to fill this gap in the literature by introducing two statistical models-the Zero-Inflated model and the Hurdle model-that closely mimic the theoretical process underlying the elicitation violation feelings via two model components: a binary distribution that models whether violation has occurred or not, and a count distribution that models how severe the negative impact is. Moreover, covariates can be included for both model components separately, which yields insight into their unique and shared antecedents. By doing this, the present paper offers a methodological-substantive synergy, showing how sophisticated methodology can be used to examine an important substantive issue.

  5. Evaluation of Multiclass Model Observers in PET LROC Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gifford, H. C.; Kinahan, P. E.; Lartizien, C.; King, M. A.

    2007-02-01

    A localization ROC (LROC) study was conducted to evaluate nonprewhitening matched-filter (NPW) and channelized NPW (CNPW) versions of a multiclass model observer as predictors of human tumor-detection performance with PET images. Target localization is explicitly performed by these model observers. Tumors were placed in the liver, lungs, and background soft tissue of a mathematical phantom, and the data simulation modeled a full-3D acquisition mode. Reconstructions were performed with the FORE+AWOSEM algorithm. The LROC study measured observer performance with 2D images consisting of either coronal, sagittal, or transverse views of the same set of cases. Versions of the CNPW observer based on two previously published difference-of-Gaussian channel models demonstrated good quantitative agreement with human observers. One interpretation of these results treats the CNPW observer as a channelized Hotelling observer with implicit internal noise

  6. Sparse Event Modeling with Hierarchical Bayesian Kernel Methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-01-05

    SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF: The research objective of this proposal was to develop a predictive Bayesian kernel approach to model count data based on...several predictive variables. Such an approach, which we refer to as the Poisson Bayesian kernel model, is able to model the rate of occurrence of... kernel methods made use of: (i) the Bayesian property of improving predictive accuracy as data are dynamically obtained, and (ii) the kernel function

  7. Observation-Based Modeling for Model-Based Testing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kanstrén, T.; Piel, E.; Gross, H.G.

    2009-01-01

    One of the single most important reasons that modeling and modelbased testing are not yet common practice in industry is the perceived difficulty of making the models up to the level of detail and quality required for their automated processing. Models unleash their full potential only through

  8. Spatial clustering and repeating of seismic events observed along the 1976 Tangshan fault, north China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Le; Chen, Qi-Fu; Cheng, Xin; Niu, Fenglin

    2007-12-01

    Spatial and temporal features of the seismicity occurring along the Tangshan fault in 2001-2006 were investigated with data recorded by the Beijing metropolitan digital Seismic Network. The relocated seismicity with the double difference method clearly exhibits a dextral bend in the middle of the fault. More than 85% of the earthquakes were found in the two clusters forming the northern segment where relatively small coseismic slips were observed during the 1976 M7.8 earthquake. The b values calculated from the seismicity occurring in the northern and southern segment are 1.03 +/- 0.02 and 0.85 +/- 0.03, respectively. The distinct seismicity and b values are probably the collective effect of the fault geometry and the regional stress field that has an ENE-WSW oriented compression. Using cross-correlation and fine relocation analyses, we also identified a total of 21 doublets and 25 multiplets that make up >50% of the total seismicity. Most of the sequences are aperiodic with recurrence intervals varying from a few minutes to hundreds of days. Based on a quasi-periodic sequence, we obtained a fault slip rate of <=2.6 mm/yr at ~15 km, which is consistent with surface GPS measurements.

  9. What sea-ice biogeochemical modellers need from observers

    OpenAIRE

    Steiner, Nadja; Deal, Clara; Lannuzel, Delphine; Lavoie, Diane; Massonnet, François; Miller, Lisa A.; Moreau, Sebastien; Popova, Ekaterina; Stefels, Jacqueline; Tedesco, Letizia

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Numerical models can be a powerful tool helping to understand the role biogeochemical processes play in local and global systems and how this role may be altered in a changing climate. With respect to sea-ice biogeochemical models, our knowledge is severely limited by our poor confidence in numerical model parameterisations representing those processes. Improving model parameterisations requires communication between observers and modellers to guide model development and improve the ...

  10. Predictive modeling of structured electronic health records for adverse drug event detection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Jing; Henriksson, Aron; Asker, Lars; Boström, Henrik

    2015-01-01

    The digitization of healthcare data, resulting from the increasingly widespread adoption of electronic health records, has greatly facilitated its analysis by computational methods and thereby enabled large-scale secondary use thereof. This can be exploited to support public health activities such as pharmacovigilance, wherein the safety of drugs is monitored to inform regulatory decisions about sustained use. To that end, electronic health records have emerged as a potentially valuable data source, providing access to longitudinal observations of patient treatment and drug use. A nascent line of research concerns predictive modeling of healthcare data for the automatic detection of adverse drug events, which presents its own set of challenges: it is not yet clear how to represent the heterogeneous data types in a manner conducive to learning high-performing machine learning models. Datasets from an electronic health record database are used for learning predictive models with the purpose of detecting adverse drug events. The use and representation of two data types, as well as their combination, are studied: clinical codes, describing prescribed drugs and assigned diagnoses, and measurements. Feature selection is conducted on the various types of data to reduce dimensionality and sparsity, while allowing for an in-depth feature analysis of the usefulness of each data type and representation. Within each data type, combining multiple representations yields better predictive performance compared to using any single representation. The use of clinical codes for adverse drug event detection significantly outperforms the use of measurements; however, there is no significant difference over datasets between using only clinical codes and their combination with measurements. For certain adverse drug events, the combination does, however, outperform using only clinical codes. Feature selection leads to increased predictive performance for both data types, in isolation and

  11. Safety Discrete Event Models for Holonic Cyclic Manufacturing Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ciufudean, Calin; Filote, Constantin

    In this paper the expression “holonic cyclic manufacturing systems” refers to complex assembly/disassembly systems or fork/join systems, kanban systems, and in general, to any discrete event system that transforms raw material and/or components into products. Such a system is said to be cyclic if it provides the same sequence of products indefinitely. This paper considers the scheduling of holonic cyclic manufacturing systems and describes a new approach using Petri nets formalism. We propose an approach to frame the optimum schedule of holonic cyclic manufacturing systems in order to maximize the throughput while minimize the work in process. We also propose an algorithm to verify the optimum schedule.

  12. A viscoplastic shear-zone model for episodic slow slip events in oceanic subduction zones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yin, A.; Meng, L.

    2016-12-01

    Episodic slow slip events occur widely along oceanic subduction zones at the brittle-ductile transition depths ( 20-50 km). Although efforts have been devoted to unravel their mechanical origins, it remains unclear about the physical controls on the wide range of their recurrence intervals and slip durations. In this study we present a simple mechanical model that attempts to account for the observed temporal evolution of slow slip events. In our model we assume that slow slip events occur in a viscoplastic shear zone (i.e., Bingham material), which has an upper static and a lower dynamic plastic yield strength. We further assume that the hanging wall deformation is approximated as an elastic spring. We envision the shear zone to be initially locked during forward/landward motion but is subsequently unlocked when the elastic and gravity-induced stress exceeds the static yield strength of the shear zone. This leads to backward/trenchward motion damped by viscous shear-zone deformation. As the elastic spring progressively loosens, the hanging wall velocity evolves with time and the viscous shear stress eventually reaches the dynamic yield strength. This is followed by the termination of the trenchward motion when the elastic stress is balanced by the dynamic yield strength of the shear zone and the gravity. In order to account for the zig-saw slip-history pattern of typical repeated slow slip events, we assume that the shear zone progre