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Sample records for models northern pintail

  1. Northern Pintail

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, Robert G.; Fleskes, Joseph P.; Guyn, Karla L.; Haukos, David A.; Austin, Jane E.; Miller, Michael R.

    2014-01-01

    This medium-sized dabbling duck of slender, elegant lines and conservative plumage coloration is circumpolar in distribution and abundant in North America, with core nesting habitat in Alaska and the Prairie Pothole Region of southern Canada and the northern Great Plains. Breeders favor shallow wetlands interspersed throughout prairie grasslands or arctic tundra. An early fall migrant, the species arrives on wintering areas beginning in August, after wing molt, often forming large roosting and feeding flocks on open, shallow wetlands and flooded agricultural fields. The birds consume grains, marsh plant seeds, and aquatic invertebrates throughout fall and winter.Northern Pintails are among the earliest nesting ducks in North America, beginning shortly after ice-out in many northern areas. Individuals form new pair bonds each winter but are highly promiscuous during the nesting season, with mated and unmated males often involved in vigorous, acrobatic Pursuit Flights. Annual nest success and productivity vary with water conditions, predation, and weather. Females build nests on the ground, often far from water. Only the female incubates; her mate leaves shortly after incubation begins. Ducklings hatch together in one day, follow the female to water after a day in the nest, and fledge by July or August. Adults and ducklings consume mainly aquatic invertebrates during the breeding season.Predators and farming operations destroy many thousands of Northern Pintail nests annually; farming has also greatly reduced the amount of quality nesting cover available. Winter habitats are threatened by water shortages, agricultural development, contamination, and urbanization. Periods of extended drought in prairie nesting regions have caused dramatic population declines, usually followed by periods of recovery. Over the long term, however, the continental population of Northern Pintails has declined significantly from 6 million birds in the early 1970s to less than 3 million in

  2. Northern Pintail Telemetry [ds231

    Data.gov (United States)

    California Department of Resources — Using radio-telemetry, female northern pintail (Anas acuta) survival, distribution, and movements during late August-March in Central California were determined...

  3. Northern Pintail (Anas acuta)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Austin, J.E.; Miller, M.R.; Poole, A.; Gill, F.

    1995-01-01

    The Northern Pintail is a medium-sized dabbling duck of slender, elegant lines and conservative plumage coloration. It is circumpolar in distribution and abundant in North America, with core nesting habitat in Alaska and the Prairie Pothole Region of southern Canada and the northern Great Plains. Breeders favor shallow wetlands interspersed throughout prairie grasslands or arctic tundra. An early fall migrant, the species arrives on wintering areas beginning in August, after wing molt, often forming large roosting and feeding flocks on open, shallow wetlands and flooded agricultural fields. The birds consume grains, marsh plant seeds, and aquatic invertebrates throughout the fall and winter. Northern Pintails are among the earliest nesting ducks in North America, beginning shortly after ice-out in many northern areas. Individuals form new pair bonds each winter but are highly promiscuous during the nesting season, with mated and unmated males often involved in vigorous, acrobatic Pursuit Flights. Annual nest success and productivity vary with water conditions, predation, and weather. Females build nests on the ground, often long distances from water. Only the female incubates; her mate leaves shortly after incubation begins. Ducklings hatch together in one day, follow the female to water after a day in the nest, and fledge by July or August. Adults and ducklings consume mainly aquatic invertebrates during the breeding season. Predators and farming operations destroy many thousands of Northern Pintail nests annually; farming has also greatly reduced the amount of quality nesting cover available. Winter habitats are threatened by water shortages, agricultural development, contamination, and urbanization. Periods of extended drought in prairie nesting regions have caused dramatic population declines, usually followed by periods of recovery. Over the long term, however, the continental population of Northern Pintails has declined significantly from 6 million birds in

  4. A model of northern pintail productivity and population growth rate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flint, Paul L.; Grand, James B.; Rockwell, Robert F.

    1998-01-01

    Our objective was to synthesize individual components of reproductive ecology into a single estimate of productivity and to assess the relative effects of survival and productivity on population dynamics. We used information on nesting ecology, renesting potential, and duckling survival of northern pintails (Anas acuta) collected on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta (Y-K Delta), Alaska, 1991-95, to model the number of ducklings produced under a range of nest success and duckling survival probabilities. Using average values of 25% nest success, 11% duckling survival, and 56% renesting probability from our study population, we calculated that all young in our population were produced by 13% of the breeding females, and that early-nesting females produced more young than later-nesting females. Further, we calculated, on average, that each female produced only 0.16 young females/nesting season. We combined these results with estimates of first-year and adult survival to examine the growth rate (X) of the population and the relative contributions of these demographic parameters to that growth rate. Contrary to aerial survey data, the population projection model suggests our study population is declining rapidly (X = 0.6969). The relative effects on population growth rate were 0.1175 for reproductive success, 0.1175 for first-year survival, and 0.8825 for adult survival. Adult survival had the greatest influence on X for our population, and this conclusion was robust over a range of survival and productivity estimates. Given published estimates of annual survival for adult females (61%), our model suggested nest success and duckling survival need to increase to approximately 40% to achieve population stability. We discuss reasons for the apparent discrepancy in population trends between our model and aerial surveys in terms of bias in productivity and survival estimates.

  5. Northern Pintail - Flight Path Telemetry [ds117

    Data.gov (United States)

    California Department of Resources — North-south flight paths of radio-tagged female northern pintails were monitored in a section of Highway 152 near Los Banos, California during 4 and 11 November and...

  6. A modeling framework for integrated harvest and habitat management of North American waterfowl: Case-study of northern pintail metapopulation dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mattsson, Brady J.; Runge, M.C.; Devries, J.H.; Boomer, G.S.; Eadie, J.M.; Haukos, D.A.; Fleskes, J.P.; Koons, D.N.; Thogmartin, W.E.; Clark, R.G.

    2012-01-01

    We developed and evaluated the performance of a metapopulation model enabling managers to examine, for the first time, the consequences of alternative management strategies involving habitat conditions and hunting on both harvest opportunity and carrying capacity (i.e., equilibrium population size in the absence of harvest) for migratory waterfowl at a continental scale. Our focus is on the northern pintail (Anas acuta; hereafter, pintail), which serves as a useful model species to examine the potential for integrating waterfowl harvest and habitat management in North America. We developed submodel structure capturing important processes for pintail populations during breeding, fall migration, winter, and spring migration while encompassing spatial structure representing three core breeding areas and two core nonbreeding areas. A number of continental-scale predictions from our baseline parameterization (e.g., carrying capacity of 5.5 million, equilibrium population size of 2.9 million and harvest rate of 12% at maximum sustained yield [MSY]) were within 10% of those from the pintail harvest strategy under current use by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. To begin investigating the interaction of harvest and habitat management, we examined equilibrium population conditions for pintail at the continental scale across a range of harvest rates while perturbing model parameters to represent: (1) a 10% increase in breeding habitat quality in the Prairie Pothole population (PR); and (2) a 10% increase in nonbreeding habitat quantity along in the Gulf Coast (GC). Based on our model and analysis, a greater increase in carrying capacity and sustainable harvest was seen when increasing a proxy for habitat quality in the Prairie Pothole population. This finding and underlying assumptions must be critically evaluated, however, before specific management recommendations can be made. To make such recommendations, we require (1) extended, refined submodels with additional

  7. Annual survival and site fidelity of northern pintails banded on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicolai, Christopher A.; Flint, Paul L.; Wege, Michael L.

    2005-01-01

    We banded northern pintails (Anas acuta; n = 13,645) at a single site on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta (YKD), Alaska, USA, from 1990 to 2001. We used recaptures from our site in combination with hunter recoveries to model annual survival, recovery rates, and fidelity to our capture location. Most recoveries (>90%) occurred in the Pacific Flyway with 64% reported from California's Central Valley. Our top candidate models allowed survival to vary by sex but not by age or year. Estimated annual survival was 77.6% (95% CI: 73.9-81.0%) for males and 60.2% (95% CI: 53.2-67.0%) for females. Reporting rates varied by age, sex, and year; estimates for adult males exceeded those for adult females by 3.5 times. Within sexes, reporting rates of hatch-year pintails exceeded those of adults. Estimated recovery rates were considerably lower than those estimated during the 1950s-1970s for winter banded pintails (Hestbeck 1993b), but there were no differences in survival rates. This suggests that changes in harvest regulations may not have influenced annual survival in this population. The propensity of banded pintails to return to our capture site (fidelity rate) varied between sexes and was positively correlated with water conditions in prairie Canada. Our estimates of fidelity rates varied from 77.4% to 87.2% for males and 89.8% to 94.3% for females. Our fidelity estimates suggest that some level of subpopulation structuring may exist for northern pintails. Additionally, our estimates of fidelity support previous observations of northern pintails overflying poor wetland habitat conditions on the Canadian prairies.

  8. Relative value of managed wetlands and tidal marshlands for wintering northern pintails

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coates, Peter S.; Casazza, Michael L.; Halstead, Brian J.; Fleskes, Joseph P.

    2012-01-01

    Northern pintail Anas acuta (hereafter, pintail) populations have declined substantially throughout the western US since the 1970s, largely as a result of converting wetlands to cropland. Managed wetlands have been developed throughout the San Francisco Bay estuaries to provide wildlife habitat, particularly for waterfowl. Many of these areas were historically tidal baylands and plans are underway to remove dikes and restore tidal action. The relationship between tidal baylands and waterfowl populations is poorly understood. Our objective was to provide information on selection and avoidance of managed and tidal marshland by pintails. During 1991–1993 and 1998–2000, we radio-marked and relocated 330 female pintails (relocations, n =11,574) at Suisun Marsh, the largest brackish water estuary within San Francisco Bay, to estimate resource selection functions during the nonbreeding months (winter). Using a distance-based modeling approach, we calculated selection functions for different ecological communities (e.g., tidal baylands) and investigated variation explained by time of day (day or night hours) to account for differences in pintail behavior (i.e., foraging vs. roosting). We found strong evidence for selection of managed wetlands. Pintails also avoided tidal marshes and bays and channels. We did not detect differences in selection function between day and night hours for managed wetlands but the degree of avoidance of other habitats varied by time of day. We also found that areas subjected to tidal action did not influence the selection of immediately adjacent managed wetlands. If current management goals include providing habitat for wintering waterfowl populations, particularly pintail, then we recommend wildlife managers focus tidal restoration on areas that are not currently managed wetland and/or improve conditions in areas of managed wetlands to increase local carrying capacities

  9. Recreation economics to inform migratory species conservation: Case study of the northern pintail.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mattsson, Brady J; Dubovsky, James A; Thogmartin, Wayne E; Bagstad, Kenneth J; Goldstein, Joshua H; Loomis, John B; Diffendorfer, James E; Semmens, Darius J; Wiederholt, Ruscena; López-Hoffman, Laura

    2018-01-15

    Quantification of the economic value provided by migratory species can aid in targeting management efforts and funding to locations yielding the greatest benefits to society and species conservation. Here we illustrate a key step in this process by estimating hunting and birding values of the northern pintail (Anas acuta) within primary breeding and wintering habitats used during the species' annual migratory cycle in North America. We used published information on user expenditures and net economic values (consumer surplus) for recreational viewing and hunting to determine the economic value of pintail-based recreation in three primary breeding areas and two primary wintering areas. Summed expenditures and consumer surplus for northern pintail viewing were annually valued at $70M, and annual sport hunting totaled $31M (2014 USD). Expenditures for viewing ($42M) were more than twice as high than those for hunting ($18M). Estimates of consumer surplus, defined as the amount consumers are willing to pay above their current expenditures, were $15M greater for viewing ($28M) than for hunting ($13M). We discovered substantial annual consumer surplus ($41M) available for pintail conservation from birders and hunters. We also found spatial differences in economic value among the primary regions used by pintails, with viewing generally valued more in breeding regions than in wintering regions and the reverse being true for hunting. The economic value of pintail-based recreation in the Western wintering region ($26M) exceeded that in any other region by at least a factor of three. Our approach of developing regionally explicit economic values can be extended to other taxonomic groups, and is particularly suitable for migratory game birds because of the availability of large amounts of data. When combined with habitat-linked population models, regionally explicit values could inform development of more effective conservation finance and policy mechanisms to enhance

  10. Recreation economics to inform migratory species conservation: Case study of the northern pintail

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mattsson, Brady J.; Dubovsky, James A.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Bagstad, Kenneth J.; Goldstein, Joshua H.; Loomis, John B.; Diffendorfer, James E.; Semmens, Darius J.; Wiederholt, Ruscena; Lopez-Hoffman, Laura

    2018-01-01

    Quantification of the economic value provided by migratory species can aid in targeting management efforts and funding to locations yielding the greatest benefits to society and species conservation. Here we illustrate a key step in this process by estimating hunting and birding values of the northern pintail (Anas acuta) within primary breeding and wintering habitats used during the species’ annual migratory cycle in North America. We used published information on user expenditures and net economic values (consumer surplus) for recreational viewing and hunting to determine the economic value of pintail-based recreation in three primary breeding areas and two primary wintering areas. Summed expenditures and consumer surplus for northern pintail viewing were annually valued at $70M, and annual sport hunting totaled $31M (2014 USD). Expenditures for viewing ($42M) were more than twice as high than those for hunting ($18M). Estimates of consumer surplus, defined as the amount consumers are willing to pay above their current expenditures, were $15M greater for viewing ($28M) than for hunting ($13M). We discovered substantial annual consumer surplus ($41M) available for pintail conservation from birders and hunters. We also found spatial differences in economic value among the primary regions used by pintails, with viewing generally valued more in breeding regions than in wintering regions and the reverse being true for hunting. The economic value of pintail-based recreation in the Western wintering region ($26M) exceeded that in any other region by at least a factor of three. Our approach of developing regionally explicit economic values can be extended to other taxonomic groups, and is particularly suitable for migratory game birds because of the availability of large amounts of data. When combined with habitat-linked population models, regionally explicit values could inform development of more effective conservation finance and policy mechanisms to enhance

  11. Evidence that dorsally mounted satellite transmitters affect migration chronology of Northern Pintails

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hupp, Jerry; Kharitonov, Sergei; Yamaguchi, Noriyuki M.; Ozaki, K.; Flint, Paul L.; Pearce, John M.; Tokita, Ken-ichi; Shimada, Tetsuo; Higuchi, Hiroyoshi

    2015-01-01

    We compared migration movements and chronology between Northern Pintails (Anas acuta) marked with dorsally mounted satellite transmitters and pintails marked only with tarsus rings. During weekly intervals of spring and autumn migration between their wintering area in Japan and nesting areas in Russia, the mean distance that ringed pintails had migrated was up to 1000 km farther than the mean distance radiomarked pintails migrated. Radiomarked pintails were detected at spring migration sites on average 9.9 days (90 % CI 8.0, 11.8) later than ringed pintails that were recovered within 50 km. Although ringed and radiomarked pintails departed from Japan on similar dates, the disparity in detection of radiomarked versus ringed pintails at shared sites increased 7.7 days (90 % CI 5.2, 10.2) for each 1000 km increase in distance from Japan. Thus, pintails marked with satellite transmitters arrived at nesting areas that were 2500 km from Japan on average 19 days later than ringed birds. Radiomarked pintails were detected at autumn migration stopovers on average 13.1 days (90 % CI 9.8, 16.4) later than ringed birds that were recovered within 50 km. We hypothesize that dorsal attachment of 12–20 g satellite transmitters to Northern Pintails increased the energetic cost of flight, which resulted in more rapid depletion of energetic reserves and shortened the distance pintails could fly without refueling. Radiomarked pintails may have used more stopovers or spent longer periods at stopovers. causing their migration schedule to diverge from ringed pintails. We urge further evaluation of the effects of dorsally mounted transmitters on migration chronology of waterfowl.

  12. Habitat use and movement patterns of Northern Pintails during spring in northern Japan: the importance of agricultural lands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamaguchi, Noriyuki M.; Hupp, Jerry W.; Flint, Paul L.; Pearce, John M.; Shigeta, Yusuke; Shimada, Tetsuo; Hiraoka, Emiko N.; Higuchi, Hiroyoshi

    2012-01-01

    From 2006 to 2009, we marked 198 Northern Pintails (Anas acuta) with satellite transmitters on their wintering areas in Japan to study their migration routes and habitat use in spring staging areas. We hypothesized that the distribution of pintails during spring staging was influenced by patterns of land use and expected that the most frequently used areas would have more agricultural habitat than lesser-used areas. We obtained 3031 daily locations from 163 migrant pintails marked with satellite transmitters and identified 524 stopover sites. Based on a fixed kernel home range analysis of stopover utilization distribution (UD), core staging areas (areas within the 50% UD) were identified in northern Honshu and western Hokkaido, and were used by 71% of marked pintails. Core staging areas had a greater proportion of rice fields than peripheral (51–95% UD) and rarely used (outside the 95% UD) staging areas. Stopover sites also contained more rice fields and other agricultural land than were available at regional scales, indicating that pintails selected rice and other agricultural habitats at regional and local scales. Pintails remained at spring staging areas an average of 51 d. Prolonged staging in agricultural habitats of northern Japan was likely necessary for pintails to prepare for transoceanic migration to Arctic nesting areas in eastern Russia.

  13. Comparative ability of northern pintails, gadwalls, and northern shovelers to metabolize foods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, M.R.

    1984-01-01

    Feeding trials were used to compare the ability of northern pintails (Anas acuta), gadwalls (A. strepera), and northern shovelers (A. clypeata) to metabolize energy from a turkey starter ration, alfalfa pellets, and common barnyardgrass (Echinochloa crusgalli) seeds. No differences (P > 0.05) were detected among the three species for any of the three foods (kg body weight/day basis), for dry matter intake (DMI), body weight gain (BWG), apparent metabolizable energy (AME), or metabolized energy (MEE) on any given diet consumed in quantities large enough to promote body weight gain. The AME content of alfalfa was 57% less than the value for turkey starter and 50% less than for barnyardgrass seeds. All three species metabolized more energy and gained weight faster when fed turkey starter. Energy modeling may be facilitated if additional research verifies that all species of dabbling ducks have equal ability to obtain energy from foods available to them in the wild. Behavioral and morphological factors may be more important in defining feeding niches than digestive physiology, at least for the three duck species tested, at the time of year of the experiments, and within the limits of the quality of foods used.

  14. Fall and winter foods of northern pintails in the Sacramento Valley, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Michael R.

    1987-01-01

    Food habits of northern pintails (Anas acuta) were investigated on 3 national wildlife refuges in the western portion of the Sacramento Valley, California, from August to March 1979-82. Pintails consumed 97% (aggregate % dry wt) plant food during diurnal foraging on national wildlife refuge rice, summer-irrigated, and summer-dry habitats from August through January. Invertebrate use increased to 28.9-65.6% of the diet in these habitats during February and March. Rice, swamp timothy (Heleochloa schoenoides), flatsedges (Cyperus spp.), common barnyardgrass (Echinochloa crusgalli), southern naiad (Najas guadalupensis), and smartweed (Polygonum spp.) seeds, miscellaneous vegetation, snails (Gastropoda), and midge (Diptera) and water beetle (Coleoptera) larvae were most important. These foods usually were taken proportional to or greater than availability. Rice was the most important food of pintails feeding nocturnally off the refuges in harvested rice fields from October through January (99.7%) and February and March (63%; barnyardgrass formed 31% of the diet). In August and October, some pintails consumed invertebrates or bulrush (Scirpus spp. ) seedlings in marshes soon after feeding in refuge rice (Aug) or harvested commercial rice fields (Oct), thereby increasing dietary protein. In late winter, females and males obtained similar (P > 0.05) percentages of invertebrates from refuge habitats. Important dietary seeds and invertebrates contained high protein or metabolizable energy content. Management should maintain adequate seed production in fall and mid-winter and invertebrate biomass in late winter.

  15. Renesting ecology of northern pintails on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grand, James B.; Flint, Paul L.

    1996-01-01

    We used radio telemetry to study renesting by wild, free-ranging Northern Pintails (Anas acuta) on the coastal Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta in 1994 and 1995. Fifty-six percent of females (n = 39) renested at least once. Propensity to renest declined among females that initiated later first nests. Renesting interval was not related to female weight, year, or initiation date of first nests. Mean interval between first and second nests was 11.4 ± 1.0 days, and mean interval between second and third nests was 11.3 ± 1.5 days. Median distance observed between first and second nest attempts was 276 m (range 33-6,098 m). Clutch size declined 2.3 ± 0.4 eggs between first and second nests. Weight of females captured on first nests in early incubation declined with nest initiation date. Our results suggest that food availability does not limit renesting ability of pintails in coastal tundra.

  16. Replacement cost valuation of Northern Pintail (Anas acuta) subsistence harvest in Arctic and sub-Arctic North America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldstein, Joshua H.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Bagstad, Kenneth J.; Dubovsky, James A.; Mattsson, Brady J.; Semmens, Darius J.; López-Hoffman, Laura; Diffendorfer, James E.

    2014-01-01

    Migratory species provide economically beneficial ecosystem services to people throughout their range, yet often, information is lacking about the magnitude and spatial distribution of these benefits at regional scales. We conducted a case study for Northern Pintails (hereafter pintail) in which we quantified regional and sub-regional economic values of subsistence harvest to indigenous communities in Arctic and sub-Arctic North America. As a first step, we used the replacement cost method to quantify the cost of replacing pintail subsistence harvest with the most similar commercially available protein (chicken). For an estimated annual subsistence harvest of ˜15,000 pintail, our mean estimate of the total replacement cost was ˜$63,000 yr−1 ($2010 USD), with sub-regional values ranging from \\$263 yr−1 to \\$21,930 yr−1. Our results provide an order-of-magnitude, conservative estimate of one component of the regional ecosystem-service values of pintails, providing perspective on how spatially explicit values can inform migratory species conservation.

  17. Northern pintail body condition during wet and dry winters in the Sacramento Valley, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, M.R.

    1986-01-01

    Body weights and carcass composition of male and female adult northern pintails (Anas acuta) were investigated in the Sacramento Valley, California, from August to March 1979-82. Pintails were lightweight, lean, and had reduced breast, leg, and heart muscles during August-September. Ducks steadily gained weight after arrival; and body, carcass (body wt minus feathers and gastrointestinal content), fat protein, and muscle weights peaked in October-November. Fat-free dry weight remained high but variable the rest of the winter, whereas body and carcass weight and fat content declined to lows in December or January, then increased again in February or March. Gizzard weights declined from early fall to March. Males were always heavier than females, but females were fatter (percentage) than males during mid-winter. Mid-winter body weight, carcass fat, and protein content were significantly (P weight and composition during winter are probably adaptations to mild climate, predictable food supplies, and requirements for pair formation and molt.

  18. Evidence for intercontinental parasite exchange through molecular detection and characterization of haematozoa in northern pintails (Anas acuta) sampled throughout the North Pacific Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramey, Andy M.; Schmutz, Joel A.; Reed, John A.; Fujita, Go; Scotton, Bradley D.; Casler, Bruce; Fleskes, Joseph P.; Konishi, Kan; Uchida, Kiyoshi; Yabsley, Michael J.

    2015-01-01

    Empirical evidence supports wild birds as playing a role in the interhemispheric exchange of bacteria and viruses; however, data supporting the redistribution of parasites among continents are limited. In this study, the hypothesis that migratory birds contribute to the redistribution of parasites between continents was tested by sampling northern pintails (Anas acuta) at locations throughout the North Pacific Basin in North America and East Asia for haemosporidian infections and assessing the genetic evidence for parasite exchange. Of 878 samples collected from birds in Alaska (USA), California (USA), and Hokkaido (Japan) during August 2011 - May 2012 and screened for parasitic infections using molecular techniques, Leucocytozoon, Haemoproteus, and Plasmodium parasites were detected in 555 (63%), 44 (5%), and 52 (6%) samples, respectively. Using an occupancy modeling approach, the probability of detecting parasites via replicate genetic tests was estimated to be high (p ≥ 0.95). Multi-model inference supported variation of Leucocytozoon parasite prevalence by northern pintail age class and geographic location of sampling in contrast to Haemoproteus and Plasmodium parasites for which there was only support for variation in parasite prevalence by sampling location. Thirty-one unique mitochondrial DNA haplotypes were detected among haematozoa infecting northern pintails including seven lineages shared between samples from North America and Japan. The finding of identical parasite haplotypes at widely distributed geographic locations and general lack of genetic structuring by continent in phylogenies for Leucocytozoon and Plasmodium provides evidence for intercontinental genetic exchange of haemosporidian parasites. Results suggest that migratory birds, including waterfowl, could therefore facilitate the introduction of avian malaria and other haemosporidia to novel hosts and spatially distant regions.

  19. Evidence for intercontinental parasite exchange through molecular detection and characterization of haematozoa in northern pintails (Anas acuta sampled throughout the North Pacific Basin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew M. Ramey

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Empirical evidence supports wild birds as playing a role in the interhemispheric exchange of bacteria and viruses; however, data supporting the redistribution of parasites among continents are limited. In this study, the hypothesis that migratory birds contribute to the redistribution of parasites between continents was tested by sampling northern pintails (Anas acuta at locations throughout the North Pacific Basin in North America and East Asia for haemosporidian infections and assessing the genetic evidence for parasite exchange. Of 878 samples collected from birds in Alaska (USA, California (USA, and Hokkaido (Japan during August 2011–May 2012 and screened for parasitic infections using molecular techniques, Leucocytozoon, Haemoproteus, and Plasmodium parasites were detected in 555 (63%, 44 (5%, and 52 (6% samples, respectively. Using an occupancy modeling approach, the probability of detecting parasites via replicate genetic tests was estimated to be high (ρ > 0.95. Multi-model inference supported variation of Leucocytozoon parasite prevalence by northern pintail age class and geographic location of sampling in contrast to Haemoproteus and Plasmodium parasites for which there was only support for variation in parasite prevalence by sampling location. Thirty-one unique mitochondrial DNA haplotypes were detected among haematozoa infecting northern pintails including seven lineages shared between samples from North America and Japan. The finding of identical parasite haplotypes at widely distributed geographic locations and general lack of genetic structuring by continent in phylogenies for Leucocytozoon and Plasmodium provides evidence for intercontinental genetic exchange of haemosporidian parasites. Results suggest that migratory birds, including waterfowl, could therefore facilitate the introduction of avian malaria and other haemosporidia to novel hosts and spatially distant regions.

  20. Breeding-season sympatry facilitates genetic exchange among allopatric wintering populations of Northern Pintails in Japan and California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flint, P.L.; Ozaki, K.; Pearce, J.M.; Guzzetti, B.; Higuchi, H.; Fleskes, J.P.; Shimada, T.; Derksen, D.V.

    2009-01-01

    The global redistribution of pathogens, such as highly pathogenic avian influenza, has renewed interest in the connectivity of continental populations of birds. Populations of the Northern Pintail (Anas acuta) wintering in Japan and California are considered separate from a management perspective. We used data from band recoveries and population genetics to assess the degree of biological independence of these wintering populations. Distributions of recoveries in Russia of Northern Pintails originally banded during winter in North America overlapped with distributions of Northern Pintails banded during winter in Japan. Thus these allopatric wintering populations are partially sympatric during the breeding season. The primary areas of overlap were along the Chukotka and Kamchatka peninsulas in Russia. Furthermore, band recoveries demonstrated dispersal of individuals between wintering populations both from North America to Japan and vice versa. Genetic analyses of samples from both wintering populations showed little evidence of population differentiation. The combination of banding and genetic markers demonstrates that these two continental populations are linked by low levels of dispersal as well as likely interbreeding in eastern Russia. Although the levels of dispersal are inconsequential for population dynamics, the combination of dispersal and interbreeding represents a viable pathway for exchange of genes, diseases, and/or parasites. ?? The Cooper Ornithological Society 2009.

  1. Effects of capture and handling on survival of female northern pintails

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cox, R.R.; Afton, A.D.

    1998-01-01

    Identification of capture and handling procedures that influence survival of waterfowl has important research and management implications. We captured 347 female Northern Pintails (Anas acuta) using rocket nets, fitted them with harness (backpack-type) radio transmitters, and monitored their survival during the first 10 d following release. Females were 16 times more likely to die during the first 4 d of exposure than during days 5-10. Survival of females captured with small numbers of waterfowl (n increased. Survival did not vary with age (immature or adult) or body condition (body mass adjusted for body size) of females. Survival was positively related to flight quality (scored as poor, moderate, or good) of females upon release; poor and moderate fliers were twice as likely to die as those scored in the next higher level of flight quality. Flight quality of females captured with small numbers of waterfowl was unrelated to holding time, but that of females captured with large numbers of waterfowl declined as holding time increased. In all cases where cause of mortalities could be determined (n = 12), we attributed proximate cause of death to predation. We recommend that holding time of ducks be minimized, particularly for those captured with large numbers of waterfowl in rocket nets.

  2. Intercontinental reassortment and genomic variation of low pathogenic avian influenza viruses isolated from northern pintails (Anas acuta) in Alaska: examining the evidence through space and time

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramey, Andrew M.; Pearce, John M.; Flint, Paul L.; Ip, Hon S.; Derksen, Dirk V.; Franson, J. Christian; Petrula, Michael J.; Scotton, Bradley D.; Sowl, Kristine M.; Wege, Michael L.; Trust, Kimberly A.

    2010-01-01

    Migration and population genetic data for northern pintails (Anas acuta) and phylogenetic analysis of low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) viruses from this host in Alaska suggest that northern pintails are involved in ongoing intercontinental transmission of avian influenza. Here, we further refine this conclusion through phylogenetic analyses which demonstrate that detection of foreign lineage gene segments is spatially dependent and consistent through time. Our results show detection of foreign lineage gene segments to be most likely at sample locations on the Alaska Peninsula and least likely along the Southern Alaska Coast. Asian lineages detected at four gene segments persisted across years, suggesting maintenance in avian hosts that migrate to Alaska each year from Asia or in hosts that remain in Alaska throughout the year. Alternatively, live viruses may persist in the environment and re-infect birds in subsequent seasons.

  3. Evaluation of blood and muscle tissues for molecular detection and characterization of hematozoa infections in northern pintails (Anas acuta) wintering in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramey, Andy M.; Schmutz, Joel A.; Fleskes, Joseph P.; Yabsley, Michael J.

    2013-01-01

    Information on the molecular detection of hematozoa from different tissue types and multiple years would be useful to inform sample collection efforts and interpret results of meta-analyses or investigations spanning multiple seasons. In this study, we tested blood and muscle tissue collected from northern pintails (Anas acuta) during autumn and winter of different years to evaluate prevalence and genetic diversity ofLeucocytozoon, Haemoproteus, and Plasmodium infections in this abundant waterfowl species of the Central Valley of California. We first compared results for paired blood and wing muscle samples to assess the utility of different tissue types for molecular investigations of haemosporidian parasites. Second, we explored inter-annual variability of hematozoa infection in Central Valley northern pintails and investigated possible effects of age, sex, and sub-region of sample collection on estimated parasite detection probability and prevalence. We found limited evidence for differences between tissue types in detection probability and prevalence ofLeucocytozoon, Haemoproteus, and Plasmodium parasites, which supports the utility of both sample types for obtaining information on hematozoan infections. However, we detected 11 haemosporidian mtDNA cyt bhaplotypes in blood samples vs. six in wing muscle tissue collected during the same sample year suggesting an advantage to using blood samples for investigations of genetic diversity. Estimated prevalence ofLeucocytozoon parasites was greater during 2006–2007 as compared to 2011–2012 and four unique haemosporidian mtDNA cyt b haplotypes were detected in the former sample year but not in the latter. Seven of 15 mtDNA cyt b haplotypes detected in northern pintails had 100% identity with previously reported hematozoa lineages detected in waterfowl (Haemoproteus and Leucocytozoon) or other avian taxa (Plasmodium) providing support for lack of host specificity for some parasite lineages.

  4. Pintail and mallard survival in California relative to habitat, abundance, and hunting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fleskes, J.P.; Yee, J.L.; Yarris, G.S.; Miller, M.R.; Casazza, Michael L.

    2007-01-01

    The influence of habitat, waterfowl abundance, and hunting on winter survival of waterfowl is not well understood. We studied late August-March survival of 163 after-hatch-year (AHY) and 128 hatch-year (HY) female mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) radiotagged in Sacramento Valley (SACV) and 885 AHY female northern pintails (A. acuta) radiotagged throughout the Central Valley of California, USA, relative to flooded habitat (HAB), January abundance of each species (JMAL or JPIN), hunter-days (HDY), and a hunting pressure index (HPI) that combined these variables. From EARLY (1987-1994) to LATE (1998-2000), HAB increased 39%, JPIN increased 45%, JMAL increased 53%, HDY increased 21%, duck-hunting season increased from 59 days to 100 days, and the female daily bag limit doubled to 2 for mallards but remained 1 for pintails. Survival (?? SE) was greater during LATE versus EARLY for pintails radiotagged in each region (SACV: 93.2 ?? 2.1% vs. 87.6 ?? 3.0%; Suisun Marsh: 86.6 ?? 3.2% vs. 77.0 ?? 3.7%; San Joaquin Valley: 86.6 ?? 3.1% vs. 76.9 ?? 4.1%) but not for SACV mallards (AHY: 70.6 ?? 7.2% to 74.4 ?? 7.7% vs. 80.1 ?? 7.2% to 82.8 ?? 5.6%; HY: 48.7 ?? 9.1% [1999-2000 only] vs. 63.5 ?? 8.8% to 67.6 ?? 8.0%). Most pintail (72%) and mallard (91%) deaths were from hunting, and lower HPI and higher JPIN or JMAL were associated with reduced mortality. Increased HAB was associated with reduced winter mortality for pintails but not for SACV mallards. Pintail survival rates that we measured were within the range reported for other North American wintering areas, and during LATE were higher than most, even though our study duration was 68-110 days longer. Winter survival rates of SACV mallards were also within the reported range. However, with higher bag limits and longer seasons, mallard survival during LATE was lower than in most other wintering areas, especially during 1999-2000, when high winds on opening weekend resulted in high hunting mortality. Habitat conservation and

  5. Feeding ecology of pintail hens during reproduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krapu, G.L.

    1974-01-01

    Food supply has been acknowledged as one of eight major external factors regulating the sexual cycles of birds (Marshall 1961). Several hypotheses have been advanced to explain the role of food supply as an ultimate factor regulating breeding (Marshall 1951; Lack 1954, 1968; Wynne-Edwards 1962; and others). Another potential influence of food is its being a proximate stimulus to breeding. When certain foods become available they may act as a stimulus as the female requires them to meet her dietary needs during egg formation. Lack (1966a: 24) suggested that the average date of laying by the Great Tit (Parus major) probably resulted from a correlation between spring temperatures and the time of appearance of the insect foods the adult females need to form eggs. He also cited other passerines whose breeding was affected by food supply available to the female. In waterfowl it has been suggested that laying females require invertebrate foods (Moyle 1961, Leitch 1964). If true, this implies that the timing of laying is influenced by those environmental changes that affect food supply.The Pintail (Anas acuta) lives primarily on plant foods during much of the year (Martin et al. 1951); thus a study of feeding ecology during the nesting season provided an opportunity to evaluate the significance of an invertebrate food source to females during the period of egg formation. Marshall (1951) stated that essentially vegetarian species appear compelled to switch at least partially to a heavier protein diet when feeding their developing young. Production of a clutch of eggs, like tissue growth in the young, requires a special dietary need that presumably should be reflected in the diet of vegetarian species during the period that eggs are being formed. This paper describes the diet of the female Pintail prior to, during, and after laying and discusses the impact of certain environmental and physiological changes on Pintail breeding.

  6. Foods of breeding pintails in North Dakota

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krapu, G.L.

    1974-01-01

    Food habits of breeding pintails (Anas acuta) were studied relative to sex, land use, and reproductive condition during the spring and summer of 1969, 1970, and 1971 in eastern North Dakota. Hens and drakes, respectively, consumed 79.2 percent and 30.0 percent animal matter on nontilled wetlands and consumed 16.6 percent and 1.1 percent animal matter on tilled wetlands. Aquatic dipterans (primarily larval forms), snails, fairy shrimp, and earthworms accounted for 71 percent of the diet of hens on nontilled wetlands, while barnyard grass (Echinochloa crusgalli) seeds formed 71 percent of the diet of hens on tilled wetlands. Cereal grain seeds formed 84 percent of the diet of 10 hens feeding on cropland. The diet of hens was influenced by reproductive status. Animal foods were predominant during the laying period (77.1 percent) but were less important in the postlaying diet (28.9 percent). Invertebrates formed 83.9 percent of the diet of renesting hens, 61.0 percent were dipteran larvae and snails. High consumption of animal foods during egg formation presumably is related to invertebrates being superior to plants in providing certain nutrients required for production of viable eggs. Research findings suggest that food requirements of prairie-nesting pintails can be met most effectively by providing pairs access to shallow, nontilled wetland habitat subject to periodic drawdowns.

  7. Determination of toxaphene in pintail tissues from Lake Hyoko, Japan

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Takazawa, Yoshikatsu; Kitamura, Kimiyoshi; Shibata, Yasuyuki; Morita, Masatoshi [National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba (Japan); Yoshikane, Mitsuha [Environmental Research Center, Tsukuba (Japan); Fujimori, Fumio [Yamashina Institute for Ornithology, Abiko (Japan)

    2004-09-15

    An international convention aiming to restrict persistent organic pollutants (POPs) was formally adopted in May 2001; global actions to reduce and eliminate releases of the pollutants have been recommended. As we know, the compounds as the dirty dozen have already provided strong impact for wildlife and human beings. Although a large number of studies have been made on POP contamination in Japanese environments, little is known about toxaphene levels. Probably, the situation is derived from the fact that the compound has never been used in Japan. So far as atmospheric transport of POPs is concerned, toxaphene may also distribute in Japanese biota. In January 2003, we carried out a sampling survey of pintails at Lake Hyoko, Niigata, Japan. Concentrations of toxaphene were determined by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS) based on electron capture negative ionization (ECNI). The concentration levels among fat, breast muscles, and livers were discussed from the obtained data.

  8. Modeling global change impacts on Northern Eurasia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kicklighter, D. W.; Monier, E.; Sokolov, A. P.; Zhuang, Q.; Melillo, J. M.; Reilly, J. M.

    2016-12-01

    Northern Eurasia is a major player in the global carbon budget and includes roughly 70% of the Earth's boreal forest and more than two-thirds of the Earth's permafrost. The region has experienced dramatic climate change (increase in temperature, growing season length, floods and droughts), natural disturbances (wildfires and insect outbreaks), and land-use change (timber harvest, urbanization, expansion and abandonment of agricultural lands) over the past century. These large environmental and socioeconomic impacts have major implications for the carbon cycle in the region. Northern Eurasia is made up of a diverse set of ecosystems that range from deserts to forests, with significant areas of croplands, pastures, and urban areas. As such, it represents a complex system with substantial challenges for the modeling community. We provide an overview of past, ongoing and possible future efforts of the integrated modeling of global change for Northern Eurasia. First, we review the variety of existing modeling approaches to investigate specific components of Earth system dynamics in the region. While there are a limited number of studies that try to integrate various aspects of the Earth system through scale, teleconnections or processes, there are few systematic analyses of the various feedbacks among components within the Earth system. As a result, there is a lack of knowledge of the relative importance of such feedbacks, and it is unclear how relevant current studies, which do not account for these feedbacks, may be for policymaking. Next, we review the role of Earth system models, and their advantages/limitations compared to detailed single component models. We further introduce human activity models (e.g., global trade, economic models, demographic models), and the need for Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs), a suite of models that couple human activity models to Earth System Models. Finally, we examine emerging issues that require a representation of the coupled

  9. Survival of female white-cheeked pintails during brood rearing in Puerto Rico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lopez-Flores, Marisel; Davis, J. Brian; Vilella, Francisco; Kaminski, Richard M.; Cruz-Burgos, José A.; Lancaster, Joseph D.

    2014-01-01

    Anas bahamensis (White-cheeked Pintail) is widely distributed across the Caribbean islands and South America. The species is classified as threatened in Puerto Rico and a species of least concern across most of its range. Little demographic data exist for the species, particularly during the breeding season. During 2000-2002, we radiomarked 31 incubating females at the Humacao Nature Reserve (Humacao) in southeastern Puerto Rico and estimated daily and interval survival rates of females during brood rearing. Only one of 31 birds died; the average ±95% CI daily survival rate of pintails was 0.998 ± 0.989-0.999 for all years, and interval survival was 0.913 ± 0.527-0.987 for a 60-day brood-rearing period. High survival of females suggests their mortality during brood rearing does not influence White-cheeked Pintail populations at Humacao, but further studies of reproductive and annual ecology are needed.

  10. Spatial models of Northern Bobwhite populations for conservation planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Twedt, Daniel J.; Wilson, R. Randy; Keister, Amy S.

    2007-01-01

    Since 1980, northern bobwhite (Colinus virginianus) range-wide populations declined 3.9% annually. Within the West Gulf Coastal Plain Bird Conservation Region in the south-central United States, populations of this quail species have declined 6.8% annually. These declines sparked calls for land use change and prompted implementation of various conservation practices. However, to effectively reverse these declines and restore northern bobwhite to their former population levels, habitat conservation and management efforts must target establishment and maintenance of sustainable populations. To provide guidance for conservation and restoration of habitat capable of supporting sustainable northern bobwhite populations in the West Gulf Coastal Plain, we modeled their spatial distribution using landscape characteristics derived from 1992 National Land Cover Data and bird detections, from 1990 to 1994, along 10-stop Breeding Bird Survey route segments. Four landscape metrics influenced detections of northern bobwhite: detections were greater in areas with more grassland and increased aggregation of agricultural lands, but detections were reduced in areas with increased density of land cover edge and grassland edge. Using these landscape metrics, we projected the abundance and spatial distribution of northern bobwhite populations across the entire West Gulf Coastal Plain. Predicted populations closely approximated abundance estimates from a different cadre of concurrently collected data but model predictions did not accurately reflect bobwhite detections along species-specific call-count routes in Arkansas and Louisiana. Using similar methods, we also projected northern bobwhite population distribution circa 1980 based on Land Use Land Cover data and bird survey data from 1976 to 1984. We compared our 1980 spatial projections with our spatial estimate of 1992 populations to identify areas of population change. Additionally, we used our projection of the spatial

  11. Geostatistical interpolation for modelling SPT data in northern Izmir

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    http://www.ias.ac.in/article/fulltext/sadh/038/06/1451-1468. Keywords. Kriging; SPT; site investigations; land-use planning; modelling; Northern Izmir. Abstract. In this study, it was aimed to map the corrected Standard Penetration Test(SPT) values in Karşıyaka city center by kriging approach. Six maps were prepared by this ...

  12. Progress towards a lightning ignition model for the Northern Rockies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paul Sopko; Don Latham

    2010-01-01

    We are in the process of constructing a lightning ignition model specific to the Northern Rockies using fire occurrence, lightning strike, ecoregion, and historical weather, NFDRS (National Fire Danger Rating System), lightning efficiency and lightning "possibility" data. Daily grids for each of these categories were reconstructed for the 2003 fire season (...

  13. Patronymic Models in Northern Russian Subdialects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Irina B. Kachinskaya

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available A patronymic is part of every Russian person’s name derived from the full name of its bearer’s father. In subdialects, the patronymic can be coined not only from the full father’s name, but also from its diminutive based on different word-formation models. Besides, the article considers the aforementioned parts of names formed from the bearer’s grandfather’s and mother’s names, and women’s names made on the basis of their husbands’ names. Finally, patronymics can be based on nicknames, categorized into personal nicknames, patronymical nicknames and the ones connected with close relatives.

  14. A new thermal model for Northern and Central Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stolk, Ward; Beekman, Fred; Kaban, Mikhail; Tesauro, Magdala; Cloetingh, Sierd

    2010-05-01

    Central and Northern Asia is a key natural laboratory for the study of active intra-continental deformation in response to the ongoing far-field collision of India and Eurasia. The induced tectonic processes strongly depend on the thermo-mechanical and compositional (density and thickness) structure of the lithosphere. Density heterogeneities within the crust and upper mantle are important factors in the control of the dynamics of Earth deformation at shallow and deep levels. The main aim of this research project is to construct new high-resolution 3D models of the compositional, thermal and rheological structure of the intra-continental lithosphere of the study area. The 3D models will be constructed by combining and jointly analysing satellite gravity data with terrestrial data (seismic velocity distributions, seismic tomography, GPS derived surface deformations, heat flow measurements and terrestrial gravity). Here we present a first new 3D thermal and lithospheric thickness model for Central and Northern Asia. This new thermal model is constructed using an improved version of the methodology presented by Goes et al (2000) and Tesauro et al (2009), and is based on a recent seismic tomographic model of Central Asia (Koulakov, personal communication) and a global Moho model. We also present a new estimate for the lithospheric thickness in the study area, based on the analysis of the spatial distribution of the 1100, 1200, and 1300C isotherms. The new higher resolution models show significant lateral variations in thermal structure across the study area, in particular across main structural boundaries. Central Asia is characterized by more heterogeneous thermal structure of the lithosphere compared to the adjacent cratonic areas in Northern and Western Asia. The observed thermal heterogeneity of Central Asia will result in an anomalous thermo-mechanical structure of the continental lithosphere, which in turn may control the development of the contemporary

  15. Modeling Forest Succession among Ecological Land Units in Northern Minnesota

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    George Host

    1998-12-01

    Full Text Available Field and modeling studies were used to quantify potential successional pathways among fine-scale ecological classification units within two geomorphic regions of north-central Minnesota. Soil and overstory data were collected on plots stratified across low-relief ground moraines and undulating sand dunes. Each geomorphic feature was sampled across gradients of topography or soil texture. Overstory conditions were sampled using five variable-radius point samples per plot; soil samples were analyzed for carbon and nitrogen content. Climatic, forest composition, and soil data were used to parameterize the sample plots for use with LINKAGES, a forest growth model that simulates changes in composition and soil characteristics over time. Forest composition and soil properties varied within and among geomorphic features. LINKAGES simulations were using "bare ground" and the current overstory as starting conditions. Northern hardwoods or pines dominated the late-successional communities of morainal and dune landforms, respectively. The morainal landforms were dominated by yellow birch and sugar maple; yellow birch reached its maximum abundance in intermediate landscape positions. On the dune sites, pine was most abundant in drier landscape positions, with white spruce increasing in abundance with increasing soil moisture and N content. The differences in measured soil properties and predicted late-successional composition indicate that ecological land units incorporate some of the key variables that govern forest composition and structure. They further show the value of ecological classification and modeling for developing forest management strategies that incorporate the spatial and temporal dynamics of forest ecosystems.

  16. Submarine wastewater discharges: dispersion modelling in the Northern Adriatic Sea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scroccaro, Isabella; Ostoich, Marco; Umgiesser, Georg; De Pascalis, Francesca; Colugnati, Luigi; Mattassi, Giorgio; Vazzoler, Marina; Cuomo, Marco

    2010-05-01

    Opposite interests must coexist in coastal areas: the presence of significant cities and urban centres, of touristic and recreational areas, and of extensive shellfish farming. To avoid local pollution caused by treated wastewaters along the Northern Adriatic coast (Friuli Venezia-Giulia and Veneto regions), marine outfall systems have been constructed. In this study, the application of a numerical dispersion model is used to support the traditional monitoring methods in order to link information concerning the hydrodynamic circulation and the microbiological features, to evaluate possible health risks associated with recreational and coastal shellfish farming activities. The study is a preliminary analysis of the environmental impact of wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) with submarine discharge outfalls. It also could be useful for the water profile definition according to the Directive 2006/7/EC on the quality of bathing water and for the integrated areal analysis (Ostoich et al. 2006), to define the area of influence of each submarine discharge point. Historical data on discharges of the considered WWTPs were recovered and evaluated. Data on discharges' control for Veneto region (WWTPs of Lido and Cavallino) were produced by the WWTPs' manager Veritas Laboratory service, while data for the WWTPs of Friuli Venezia-Giulia region were produced by the regional environmental protection agency in the institutional control activity following official methods. The hydrodynamic model used in this work is the three-dimensional version of the finite element model SHYFEM, developed at ISMAR-CNR (Marine Science Institute of the Italian National Research Council) in Venice (Umgiesser et al. J Mar Syst 51:123-145, 2008). Numerical simulations have been carried out with the 3D version of the finite element model SHYFEM for 3 months during autumn 2007 to evaluate the bacterial pollution dispersion along the coasts of Veneto and Friuli Venezia-Giulia regions, prescribing meteo

  17. LBA-ECO LC-01 SRTM 90-Meter Digital Elevation Model, Northern Ecuadorian Amazon

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This data set, LBA-ECO LC-01 SRTM 90-Meter Digital Elevation Model, Northern Ecuadorian Amazon, provides 90-meter resolution Digital Elevation Model data used in the...

  18. A model of trophic flows in the northern Benguela upwelling system during the 1980s

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Shannon, L.J.; Jarre, Astrid

    1999-01-01

    A model of trophic flows through the northern Benguela between 1980 and 1989 was constructed using the ECOPATH approach. The model serves to close the temporal gap between models of the system for the 1970s and 1990s. The aim is to provide a workable model, with the intention of encouraging...... in the northern Benguela during the 1980s was high, comparable to that of the Peruvian system in the 1960s and almost double that of the northern Benguela during the 1970s. Horse mackerel and hake catches were both high, with fishing on hake being ecologically more expensive. Biomass of benthic producers, meio...

  19. Modelling the Main Ionospheric Trough Across the Northern Hemisphere

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Mitchell, Cathryn

    2004-01-01

    This report results from a contract tasking University of Bath as follows: The contractor will investigate disturbances in the Northern Hemisphere ionosphere using a Multi-instrument data analysis (MIDAS) imaging algorithm...

  20. Alaska Northern Fur Seal Foraging Habitat Model Stable Isotope Data, 2006-2008

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — These data sets were used by Zeppelin et al. (2015) to model northern fur seal foraging habitats based on stable isotope values measured in plasma and red blood...

  1. Parameter sensitivity and identifiability for a biogeochemical model of hypoxia in the northern Gulf of Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Local sensitivity analyses and identifiable parameter subsets were used to describe numerical constraints of a hypoxia model for bottom waters of the northern Gulf of Mexico. The sensitivity of state variables differed considerably with parameter changes, although most variables ...

  2. Modelling Peatland Hydrology: Three cases from Northern Europe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Querner, E.P.; Mioduszewski, W.; Povilaitis, A.; Slesicka, A.

    2010-01-01

    Many of the peatlands that used to extend over large parts of Northern Europe have been reclaimed for agriculture. Human influence continues to have a major impact on the hydrology of those that remain, affecting river flow and groundwater levels. In order to understand this hydrology it is

  3. Modeling co-occurrence of northern spotted and barred owls: accounting for detection probability differences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bailey, Larissa L.; Reid, Janice A.; Forsman, Eric D.; Nichols, James D.

    2009-01-01

    Barred owls (Strix varia) have recently expanded their range and now encompass the entire range of the northern spotted owl (Strix occidentalis caurina). This expansion has led to two important issues of concern for management of northern spotted owls: (1) possible competitive interactions between the two species that could contribute to population declines of northern spotted owls, and (2) possible changes in vocalization behavior and detection probabilities of northern spotted owls induced by presence of barred owls. We used a two-species occupancy model to investigate whether there was evidence of competitive exclusion between the two species at study locations in Oregon, USA. We simultaneously estimated detection probabilities for both species and determined if the presence of one species influenced the detection of the other species. Model selection results and associated parameter estimates provided no evidence that barred owls excluded spotted owls from territories. We found strong evidence that detection probabilities differed for the two species, with higher probabilities for northern spotted owls that are the object of current surveys. Non-detection of barred owls is very common in surveys for northern spotted owls, and detection of both owl species was negatively influenced by the presence of the congeneric species. Our results suggest that analyses directed at hypotheses of barred owl effects on demographic or occupancy vital rates of northern spotted owls need to deal adequately with imperfect and variable detection probabilities for both species.

  4. The Aerosol Models in MODTRAN: Incorporating Selected Measurements From Northern Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    2005-12-01

    of atmospheric aerosol obtained around Jabiru , N.T., in June and September 2003. These measurements are used to obtain theoretical multimode size...coefficients. The attenuation coefficients are then incorporated into MODTRAN and compared with the default aerosol models. Finally the Jabiru aerosol is...centred on Jabiru in the Northern Territory, Australia. This environment is typical of a Northern Australian dry season climate. Atmospheric transmission

  5. Evaluation of long-distance dispersal of Culicoides midges into northern Australia using a migration model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eagles, D; Deveson, T; Walker, P J; Zalucki, M P; Durr, P

    2012-09-01

    The introduction of novel bluetongue serotypes and genotypes into northern Australia is considered possible via the long-distance windborne dispersal of Culicoides (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) vectors from Southeast Asia. Initial findings from simulation modelling of potential dispersal over a 15-year period revealed that the greatest risk for incursion of windborne Culicoides from the island of Timor into northern Australia occurs during December-March. The regions at greatest risk for incursion include the top end of the Northern Territory and the Kimberley region in Western Australia, but there is potential for more widespread dispersal into northern Australia based on Timor as the putative source. The establishment of a more pathogenic strain of the virus, or of a novel Culicoides vector introduced by such inter-continental dispersal events, could dramatically alter Australia's current bluetongue disease status. © 2011 CSIRO. Medical and Veterinary Entomology © 2011 The Royal Entomological Society.

  6. Developing a topographic model to predict the northern hardwood forest type within Carolina northern flying squirrel (Glaucomys sabrinus coloratus) recovery areas of the southern Appalachians

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, Andrew; Odom, Richard H.; Resler, Lynn M.; Ford, W. Mark; Prisley, Stephen

    2014-01-01

    The northern hardwood forest type is an important habitat component for the endangered Carolina northern flying squirrel (CNFS; Glaucomys sabrinus coloratus) for den sites and corridor habitats between boreo-montane conifer patches foraging areas. Our study related terrain data to presence of northern hardwood forest type in the recovery areas of CNFS in the southern Appalachian Mountains of western North Carolina, eastern Tennessee, and southwestern Virginia. We recorded overstory species composition and terrain variables at 338 points, to construct a robust, spatially predictive model. Terrain variables analyzed included elevation, aspect, slope gradient, site curvature, and topographic exposure. We used an information-theoretic approach to assess seven models based on associations noted in existing literature as well as an inclusive global model. Our results indicate that, on a regional scale, elevation, aspect, and topographic exposure index (TEI) are significant predictors of the presence of the northern hardwood forest type in the southern Appalachians. Our elevation + TEI model was the best approximating model (the lowest AICc score) for predicting northern hardwood forest type correctly classifying approximately 78% of our sample points. We then used these data to create region-wide predictive maps of the distribution of the northern hardwood forest type within CNFS recovery areas.

  7. Paleozoic petroleum systems of northern Germany and adjacent areas : a 3D modeling study

    OpenAIRE

    Uffmann, Anna Kathrin

    2013-01-01

    This thesis presents the results of a large-scale 3D petroleum system basin model of northern Germany and adjacent areas as well as a detailed 3D modeling study of the Münsterland Basin. Furthermore, the geochemical characterization of several black shale horizons present in the study area is given. In the study the burial and thermal history of sediments in northern Germany and The Netherlands using predominantly 3D forward numerical basin modeling techniques (PetroMod® suite software) has b...

  8. Present-day 3D structural model of the Po Valley basin, Northern Italy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Turrini, C.; Lacombe, O.; Roure, F.

    2014-01-01

    A 3D structural model of the Po Valley basin (Northern Italy) was built by integrating the dataset available from the public domain (DEM, wells, isobath-maps, cross-sections, outcrop-trends).The model shows the complex foredeep-foreland architecture across the basin, from the Moho level to the

  9. Biomass measurement and modeling challenges for hardwood species in the northern region

    Science.gov (United States)

    James A. Westfall; David W. MacFarlane; Aaron R. Weiskittel

    2012-01-01

    Biomass models for most commercially important hardwood species in the northern region of the U.S. are often based on data of very limited spatial extent and range of tree characteristics, suggesting uncertain accuracy when applied at regional scales. Also, the current models can have poor predictive ability for the proportions of biomass found in major tree components...

  10. Statistical Models for Sediment/Detritus and Dissolved Absorption Coefficients in Coastal Waters of the Northern Gulf of Mexico

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Green, Rebecca E; Gould, Jr., Richard W; Ko, Dong S

    2008-01-01

    ... (CDOM) absorption coefficients from physical hydrographic and atmospheric properties. The models were developed for northern Gulf of Mexico shelf waters using multi-year satellite and physical data...

  11. Changes in behaviour and faecal glucocorticoid levels in response to increased human activities during weekends in the pin-tailed sandgrouse.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casas, Fabián; Benítez-López, Ana; Tarjuelo, Rocío; Barja, Isabel; Viñuela, Javier; García, Jesús T; Morales, Manuel B; Mougeot, Francois

    2016-12-01

    Human recreational activities are becoming increasingly widespread and frequent, a fact that may potentially exacerbate their effects on wildlife. These human-related disturbances on animals may induce behavioural and physiological changes that can ultimately affect their fitness, showing a similar anti-predator response that against natural predator or other threats. Here, we combine the use of behavioural and physiological approaches to assess the potential effect of winter human activities on a threatened farmland bird in Europe, the pin-tailed sandgrouse (Pterocles alchata). We compared before, during and after weekend variations in human activity rates, pin-tailed sandgrouse behaviour (flocking and flying behaviour, interspecific association in mixed flocks and habitat use) and faecal glucocorticoid metabolite concentrations. Human disturbances, in particular those associated with hunting activities, peaked during weekends. Sandgrouse showed significant behavioural changes (increased sandgrouse-only flock sizes, increased proportion of birds flying and changes in habitat use) during weekends and higher faecal glucocorticoid metabolite concentrations after the weekends compared with during or before weekends. Therefore, physiological stress levels could be modulated by behavioural adjustments such as increased flock sizes and changes in habitat use that may allow sandgrouse to cope with increased human disturbance rates during weekends. Nevertheless, temporal and spatial organization of hunting days among groups of estates might be good strategies to buffer these potential adverse effects on wintering pin-tailed sandgrouse and other steppe species of conservation concern, while preserving a socio-economically important activity such as hunting.

  12. Analysis of subsidence in northeastern Venezuela as a discriminator of tectonic models for northern South America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erikson, Johan P.; Pindell, James L.

    1993-10-01

    Subsidence analysis of northeastern Venezuela's exposed, parautochthonous Lower Cretaceous-Miocene sedimentary section reveals an Atlantic-type passive-margin subsidence history for the entire Cretaceous-middle Eocene interval; Oligocene-Miocene subsidence was rapid and great and was caused by foredeep formation and emplacement of the fold-and-thrust belt that now exposes the passive-margin sedimentary section. Our analyses support tectonic models of South America's northern margin which propose Cenozoic eastward migration of a foredeep along northern South America's late Mesozoic passive margin. The calculated subsidence is inconsistent with tectonic models that propose middle or Late Cretaceous subduction or obduction.

  13. A model of trophic flows in the northern Benguela upwelling system during the 1980s

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Shannon, L.J.; Jarre, Astrid

    1999-01-01

    A model of trophic flows through the northern Benguela between 1980 and 1989 was constructed using the ECOPATH approach. The model serves to close the temporal gap between models of the system for the 1970s and 1990s. The aim is to provide a workable model, with the intention of encouraging...... scientists working on different components of the ecosystem to collaborate to improve and update the model for more recent years. Ultimately, this type of model may form a basis for multispecies management approaches in the region. By the 1980s, sardine Sardinops sagax and hake Merluccius spp. stocks...... in the northern Benguela had both undergone a decline, yet were still heavily fished. Horse mackerel Trachurus trachurus capensis had increased over the previous decade and was the dominant pelagic species during the 1980s, with high catches. Production by some groups, such as goby Sufflogobius bibarbatus...

  14. Models for mapping potential habitat at landscape scales: an example using northern spotted owls.

    Science.gov (United States)

    William C. McComb; Michael T. McGrath; Thomas A. Spies; David. Vesely

    2002-01-01

    We are assessing the potential for current and alternative policies in the Oregon Coast Range to affect habitat capability for a suite of forest resources. We provide an example of a spatially explicit habitat capability model for northern spotted owls (Strix occidentalis caurina)to illustrate the approach we are taking to assess potential changes...

  15. Representing northern peatland microtopography and hydrology within the Community Land Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    X. Shi; P.E. Thornton; D.M. Ricciuto; P J. Hanson; J. Mao; Stephen Sebestyen; N.A. Griffiths; G. Bisht

    2015-01-01

    Predictive understanding of northern peatland hydrology is a necessary precursor to understanding the fate of massive carbon stores in these systems under the influence of present and future climate change. Current models have begun to address microtopographic controls on peatland hydrology, but none have included a prognostic calculation of peatland water table depth...

  16. A model of trophic flows in the northern Benguela upwelling system ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Ultimately, this type of model may form a basis for multispecies management approaches in the region. By the 1980s, sardine Sardinops sagax and hake Merluccius spp. stocks in the northern Benguela had both undergone a decline, yet were still heavily fished. Horse mackerel Trachurus trachurus capensis had increased ...

  17. Modeling the Seasonal and Interannual Variability of the Northern Gulf of California Salinity

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-02-15

    Schwartzlose (1979), Masas de agua del Golfo de California , Cienc. Mar., 6, 43–63. Argote, M. L., A. Amador, M. F. Lavı’n, and J. R. Hunter (1995...Modeling the seasonal and interannual variability of the northern Gulf of California salinity Luis Zamudio,1 E. Joseph Metzger,2 and Patrick Hogan2...salinity in the northern Gulf of California (NGOC). Previous studies illustrate that the NGOC is characterized by an annual evaporation of ∼0.9 m/yr

  18. A review of and perspectives on global change modeling for Northern Eurasia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monier, Erwan; Kicklighter, David W.; Sokolov, Andrei P.; Zhuang, Qianlai; Sokolik, Irina N.; Lawford, Richard; Kappas, Martin; Paltsev, Sergey V.; Groisman, Pavel Ya

    2017-08-01

    Northern Eurasia is made up of a complex and diverse set of physical, ecological, climatic and human systems, which provide important ecosystem services including the storage of substantial stocks of carbon in its terrestrial ecosystems. At the same time, the region has experienced dramatic climate change, natural disturbances and changes in land management practices over the past century. For these reasons, Northern Eurasia is both a critical region to understand and a complex system with substantial challenges for the modeling community. This review is designed to highlight the state of past and ongoing efforts of the research community to understand and model these environmental, socioeconomic, and climatic changes. We further aim to provide perspectives on the future direction of global change modeling to improve our understanding of the role of Northern Eurasia in the coupled human–Earth system. Modeling efforts have shown that environmental and socioeconomic changes in Northern Eurasia can have major impacts on biodiversity, ecosystems services, environmental sustainability, and the carbon cycle of the region, and beyond. These impacts have the potential to feedback onto and alter the global Earth system. We find that past and ongoing studies have largely focused on specific components of Earth system dynamics and have not systematically examined their feedbacks to the global Earth system and to society. We identify the crucial role of Earth system models in advancing our understanding of feedbacks within the region and with the global system. We further argue for the need for integrated assessment models (IAMs), a suite of models that couple human activity models to Earth system models, which are key to address many emerging issues that require a representation of the coupled human–Earth system.

  19. Global change modeling for Northern Eurasia: a review and strategies to move forward

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monier, E.; Kicklighter, D. W.; Sokolov, A. P.; Zhuang, Q.; Sokolik, I. N.; Lawford, R. G.; Kappas, M.; Paltsev, S.; Groisman, P. Y.

    2017-12-01

    Northern Eurasia is made up of a complex and diverse set of physical, ecological, climatic and human systems, which provide important ecosystem services including the storage of substantial stocks of carbon in its terrestrial ecosystems. At the same time, the region has experienced dramatic climate change, natural disturbances and changes in land management practices over the past century. For these reasons, Northern Eurasia is both a critical region to understand and a complex system with substantial challenges for the modeling community. This review is designed to highlight the state of past and ongoing efforts of the research community to understand and model these environmental, socioeconomic, and climatic changes. We further aim to provide perspectives on the future direction of global change modeling to improve our understanding of the role of Northern Eurasia in the coupled human-Earth system. Modeling efforts have shown that environmental and socioeconomic changes in Northern Eurasia can have major impacts on biodiversity, ecosystems services, environmental sustainability, and the carbon cycle of the region, and beyond. These impacts have the potential to feedback onto and alter the global Earth system. We find that past and ongoing studies have largely focused on specific components of Earth system dynamics and have not systematically examined their feedbacks to the global Earth system and to society. We identify the crucial role of Earth system models in advancing our understanding of feedbacks within the region and with the global system. We further argue for the need for integrated assessment models (IAMs), a suite of models that couple human activity models to Earth system models, which are key to address many emerging issues that require a representation of the coupled human-Earth system.

  20. Geostatistical interpolation for modelling SPT data in northern Izmir

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    to the data in hand. At various depths, prepared variograms and the kriging method were used together to model the variation of corrected SPT data in the region, which enabled ... backs and application of different tests on various types of soils requires an extensive study in decision ..... It should be added that, a big amount.

  1. Modelled female sale options demonstrate improved profitability in northern beef herds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niethe, G E; Holmes, W E

    2008-12-01

    To examine the impact of improving the average value of cows sold, the risk of decreasing the number weaned, and total sales on the profitability of northern Australian cattle breeding properties. Gather, model and interpret breeder herd performances and production parameters on properties from six beef-producing regions in northern Australia. Production parameters, prices, costs and herd structure were entered into a herd simulation model for six northern Australian breeding properties that spay females to enhance their marketing options. After the data were validated by management, alternative management strategies were modelled using current market prices and most likely herd outcomes. The model predicted a close relationship between the average sale value of cows, the total herd sales and the gross margin/adult equivalent. Keeping breeders out of the herd to fatten generally improves their sale value, and this can be cost-effective, despite the lower number of progeny produced and the subsequent reduction in total herd sales. Furthermore, if the price of culled cows exceeds the price of culled heifers, provided there are sufficient replacement pregnant heifers available to maintain the breeder herd nucleus, substantial gains in profitability can be obtained by decreasing the age at which cows are culled from the herd. Generalised recommendations on improving reproductive performance are not necessarily the most cost-effective strategy to improve breeder herd profitability. Judicious use of simulation models is essential to help develop the best turnoff strategies for females and to improve station profitability.

  2. Vegetation controls on northern high latitude snow-albedo feedback: Observations and CMIP5 model simulations

    OpenAIRE

    Loranty, MM; Berner, LT; Goetz, SJ; Jin, Y; Randerson, JT

    2014-01-01

    The snow-masking effect of vegetation exerts strong control on albedo in northern high latitude ecosystems. Large-scale changes in the distribution and stature of vegetation in this region will thus have important feedbacks to climate. The snow-albedo feedback is controlled largely by the contrast between snow-covered and snow-free albedo (Δα), which influences predictions of future warming in coupled climate models, despite being poorly constrained at seasonal and century time scales. Here, ...

  3. Investigating the northern Adriatic Sea ecosystem state with a very high resolution model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mattia, Gelsomina; Zavatarelli, Marco; Lovato, Tomas

    2015-04-01

    The northern Adriatic Sea ecosystem dynamics is simulated using the coupling of the BFM (Biogeochemical Flux Model) with the NEMO (Nucleus for European Models of the Ocean) model. The modeling system is implemented at very high horizontal (~800 m) and vertical (95 z-level) resolution and is nested with a coarser scale Adriatic/Mediterranean model. Simulation in hindcast and projection mode are being executed and are aimed to evaluate the ecosystem attributes (vigor, organization, resilience), in order to understand the ecosystem state of the basin with respect to the so-called "Good Ecosystem State" (GES) as defined by the EU-MSF9 Directive. Skill of the model in replicating integrated environmental indices such as the EU-EEACS1023+ is also investigated. Finally the model is also open to an off-line coupling with an higher trophic level (HTL) model.

  4. Evaluating the robustness of conceptual rainfall-runoff models under climate variability in northern Tunisia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dakhlaoui, H.; Ruelland, D.; Tramblay, Y.; Bargaoui, Z.

    2017-07-01

    To evaluate the impact of climate change on water resources at the catchment scale, not only future projections of climate are necessary but also robust rainfall-runoff models that must be fairly reliable under changing climate conditions. The aim of this study was thus to assess the robustness of three conceptual rainfall-runoff models (GR4j, HBV and IHACRES) on five basins in northern Tunisia under long-term climate variability, in the light of available future climate scenarios for this region. The robustness of the models was evaluated using a differential split sample test based on a climate classification of the observation period that simultaneously accounted for precipitation and temperature conditions. The study catchments include the main hydrographical basins in northern Tunisia, which produce most of the surface water resources in the country. A 30-year period (1970-2000) was used to capture a wide range of hydro-climatic conditions. The calibration was based on the Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE) criterion, while model transferability was evaluated based on the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency criterion and volume error. The three hydrological models were shown to behave similarly under climate variability. The models simulated the runoff pattern better when transferred to wetter and colder conditions than to drier and warmer ones. It was shown that their robustness became unacceptable when climate conditions involved a decrease of more than 25% in annual precipitation and an increase of more than +1.75 °C in annual mean temperatures. The reduction in model robustness may be partly due to the climate dependence of some parameters. When compared to precipitation and temperature projections in the region, the limits of transferability obtained in this study are generally respected for short and middle term. For long term projections under the most pessimistic emission gas scenarios, the limits of transferability are generally not respected, which may hamper the

  5. Modelling seasonal habitat suitability for wide-ranging species: Invasive wild pigs in northern Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Froese, Jens G; Smith, Carl S; Durr, Peter A; McAlpine, Clive A; van Klinken, Rieks D

    2017-01-01

    Invasive wildlife often causes serious damage to the economy and agriculture as well as environmental, human and animal health. Habitat models can fill knowledge gaps about species distributions and assist planning to mitigate impacts. Yet, model accuracy and utility may be compromised by small study areas and limited integration of species ecology or temporal variability. Here we modelled seasonal habitat suitability for wild pigs, a widespread and harmful invader, in northern Australia. We developed a resource-based, spatially-explicit and regional-scale approach using Bayesian networks and spatial pattern suitability analysis. We integrated important ecological factors such as variability in environmental conditions, breeding requirements and home range movements. The habitat model was parameterized during a structured, iterative expert elicitation process and applied to a wet season and a dry season scenario. Model performance and uncertainty was evaluated against independent distributional data sets. Validation results showed that an expert-averaged model accurately predicted empirical wild pig presences in northern Australia for both seasonal scenarios. Model uncertainty was largely associated with different expert assumptions about wild pigs' resource-seeking home range movements. Habitat suitability varied considerably between seasons, retracting to resource-abundant rainforest, wetland and agricultural refuge areas during the dry season and expanding widely into surrounding grassland floodplains, savanna woodlands and coastal shrubs during the wet season. Overall, our model suggested that suitable wild pig habitat is less widely available in northern Australia than previously thought. Mapped results may be used to quantify impacts, assess risks, justify management investments and target control activities. Our methods are applicable to other wide-ranging species, especially in data-poor situations.

  6. Comparison of phenology models for predicting the onset of growing season over the Northern Hemisphere.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yang Fu

    Full Text Available Vegetation phenology models are important for examining the impact of climate change on the length of the growing season and carbon cycles in terrestrial ecosystems. However, large uncertainties in present phenology models make accurate assessment of the beginning of the growing season (BGS a challenge. In this study, based on the satellite-based phenology product (i.e. the V005 MODIS Land Cover Dynamics (MCD12Q2 product, we calibrated four phenology models, compared their relative strength to predict vegetation phenology; and assessed the spatial pattern and interannual variability of BGS in the Northern Hemisphere. The results indicated that parameter calibration significantly influences the models' accuracy. All models showed good performance in cool regions but poor performance in warm regions. On average, they explained about 67% (the Growing Degree Day model, 79% (the Biome-BGC phenology model, 73% (the Number of Growing Days model and 68% (the Number of Chilling Days-Growing Degree Day model of the BGS variations over the Northern Hemisphere. There were substantial differences in BGS simulations among the four phenology models. Overall, the Biome-BGC phenology model performed best in predicting the BGS, and showed low biases in most boreal and cool regions. Compared with the other three models, the two-phase phenology model (NCD-GDD showed the lowest correlation and largest biases with the MODIS phenology product, although it could catch the interannual variations well for some vegetation types. Our study highlights the need for further improvements by integrating the effects of water availability, especially for plants growing in low latitudes, and the physiological adaptation of plants into phenology models.

  7. Comparison of phenology models for predicting the onset of growing season over the Northern Hemisphere.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fu, Yang; Zhang, Haicheng; Dong, Wenjie; Yuan, Wenping

    2014-01-01

    Vegetation phenology models are important for examining the impact of climate change on the length of the growing season and carbon cycles in terrestrial ecosystems. However, large uncertainties in present phenology models make accurate assessment of the beginning of the growing season (BGS) a challenge. In this study, based on the satellite-based phenology product (i.e. the V005 MODIS Land Cover Dynamics (MCD12Q2) product), we calibrated four phenology models, compared their relative strength to predict vegetation phenology; and assessed the spatial pattern and interannual variability of BGS in the Northern Hemisphere. The results indicated that parameter calibration significantly influences the models' accuracy. All models showed good performance in cool regions but poor performance in warm regions. On average, they explained about 67% (the Growing Degree Day model), 79% (the Biome-BGC phenology model), 73% (the Number of Growing Days model) and 68% (the Number of Chilling Days-Growing Degree Day model) of the BGS variations over the Northern Hemisphere. There were substantial differences in BGS simulations among the four phenology models. Overall, the Biome-BGC phenology model performed best in predicting the BGS, and showed low biases in most boreal and cool regions. Compared with the other three models, the two-phase phenology model (NCD-GDD) showed the lowest correlation and largest biases with the MODIS phenology product, although it could catch the interannual variations well for some vegetation types. Our study highlights the need for further improvements by integrating the effects of water availability, especially for plants growing in low latitudes, and the physiological adaptation of plants into phenology models.

  8. Forecasting the northern African dust outbreak towards Europe in April 2011: a model intercomparison

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Huneeus

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available In the framework of the World Meteorological Organisation's Sand and Dust Storm Warning Advisory and Assessment System, we evaluated the predictions of five state-of-the-art dust forecast models during an intense Saharan dust outbreak affecting western and northern Europe in April 2011. We assessed the capacity of the models to predict the evolution of the dust cloud with lead times of up to 72 h using observations of aerosol optical depth (AOD from the AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS and dust surface concentrations from a ground-based measurement network. In addition, the predicted vertical dust distribution was evaluated with vertical extinction profiles from the Cloud and Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP. To assess the diversity in forecast capability among the models, the analysis was extended to wind field (both surface and profile, synoptic conditions, emissions and deposition fluxes. Models predict the onset and evolution of the AOD for all analysed lead times. On average, differences among the models are larger than differences among lead times for each individual model. In spite of large differences in emission and deposition, the models present comparable skill for AOD. In general, models are better in predicting AOD than near-surface dust concentration over the Iberian Peninsula. Models tend to underestimate the long-range transport towards northern Europe. Our analysis suggests that this is partly due to difficulties in simulating the vertical distribution dust and horizontal wind. Differences in the size distribution and wet scavenging efficiency may also account for model diversity in long-range transport.

  9. Northern Korean Peninsula 1-D velocity model from surface wave dispersion and full-waveform data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, S. J.; Rhie, J.; Kim, S.; Kang, T. S.; Cho, C.

    2016-12-01

    Monitoring seismic activities in the northern Korean Peninsula is important not only for understanding the characteristics of earthquakes but also for watching nuclear tests. To better monitor those natural and man-made seismic activities, reliable seismic velocity models are required. However, the seismic velocity structure of the region is not known well due to the lack of available seismic data directly measured in the region. This study presents 1-D velocity models of the region using two different datasets comprised of two-year-long continuous waveform and the 2013 North Korea nuclear test event waveform recorded at stations surrounding the region. Two reference 1-D models for the inland and offshore areas (Western East Sea) were estimated by 1-D inversion of surface wave dispersion measurements from ambient noise cross-correlations of the continuous waveform. To investigate the variations in the velocity models, many 1-D models for the paths between the 2013 nuclear test site and stations in China and South Korea were constructed by forward waveform modeling. The velocity variations are not significant for both models representing the inland and offshore paths, respectively. The 1-D models for the inland paths are similar to the models constructed for the southern Korean Peninsula. Interestingly, waveforms sampling through the offshore paths are not well explained by simple 1-D isotropic models. The preliminary result indicates that there exists radial anisotropy with SH being faster than SV by 3-5% in the upper mantle beneath the offshore northern Korean Peninsula, although further studies are necessary to explain the origin of anisotropy. A proper characterization of propagation effects along the offshore paths would be useful for monitoring future nuclear tests because many seismic stations in the eastern South Korea record waveforms sampling the offshore region from the nuclear test site to those stations.

  10. Forecasting the northern African dust outbreak towards Europe in April 2011: a model intercomparison

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huneeus, N.; Basart, S.; Fiedler, S.; Morcrette, J.-J.; Benedetti, A.; Mulcahy, J.; Terradellas, E.; Pérez García-Pando, C.; Pejanovic, G.; Nickovic, S.; Arsenovic, P.; Schulz, M.; Cuevas, E.; Baldasano, J. M.; Pey, J.; Remy, S.; Cvetkovic, B.

    2016-04-01

    In the framework of the World Meteorological Organisation's Sand and Dust Storm Warning Advisory and Assessment System, we evaluated the predictions of five state-of-the-art dust forecast models during an intense Saharan dust outbreak affecting western and northern Europe in April 2011. We assessed the capacity of the models to predict the evolution of the dust cloud with lead times of up to 72 h using observations of aerosol optical depth (AOD) from the AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and dust surface concentrations from a ground-based measurement network. In addition, the predicted vertical dust distribution was evaluated with vertical extinction profiles from the Cloud and Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP). To assess the diversity in forecast capability among the models, the analysis was extended to wind field (both surface and profile), synoptic conditions, emissions and deposition fluxes. Models predict the onset and evolution of the AOD for all analysed lead times. On average, differences among the models are larger than differences among lead times for each individual model. In spite of large differences in emission and deposition, the models present comparable skill for AOD. In general, models are better in predicting AOD than near-surface dust concentration over the Iberian Peninsula. Models tend to underestimate the long-range transport towards northern Europe. Our analysis suggests that this is partly due to difficulties in simulating the vertical distribution dust and horizontal wind. Differences in the size distribution and wet scavenging efficiency may also account for model diversity in long-range transport.

  11. Estimation of antecedent wetness conditions for flood modelling in northern Morocco

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Tramblay

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available In northern Morocco are located most of the dams and reservoirs of the country, while this region is affected by severe rainfall events causing floods. To improve the management of the water regulation structures, there is a need to develop rainfall–runoff models to both maximize the storage capacity and reduce the risks caused by floods. In this study, a model is developed to reproduce the flood events for a 655 km2 catchment located upstream of the 6th largest dam in Morocco. Constrained by data availability, a standard event-based model combining a SCS-CN (Soil Conservation Service Curve Number loss model and a Clark unit hydrograph was developed for hourly discharge simulation using 16 flood events that occurred between 1984 and 2008. The model was found satisfactory to reproduce the runoff and the temporal evolution of floods, even with limited rainfall data. Several antecedent wetness conditions estimators for the catchment were compared with the initial condition of the model. Theses estimators include an antecedent discharge index, an antecedent precipitation index and a continuous daily soil moisture accounting model (SMA, based on precipitation and evapotranspiration. The SMA model performed the best to estimate the initial conditions of the event-based hydrological model (R2 = 0.9. Its daily output has been compared with ASCAT and AMSR-E remote sensing data products, which were both able to reproduce with accuracy the daily simulated soil moisture dynamics at the catchment scale. This same approach could be implemented in other catchments of this region for operational purposes. The results of this study suggest that remote sensing data are potentially useful to estimate the soil moisture conditions in the case of ungauged catchments in Northern Africa.

  12. Modeling of bud break of Scots pine in northern Finland in 1908-2014.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salminen, Hannu; Jalkanen, Risto

    2015-01-01

    Bud break and height-growth of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) in the northern boreal zone in Lapland, Finland, was followed through the entire growing seasons in the periods 2001-2003 and 2008-2010 in sapling stands in two different locations in northern Finland set some 250 km apart along a latitudinal transect. Field measurements continued at the southern site also in 2011-2013. Air temperature was recorded hourly at the sites. A simple optimization algorithm (GA) was used to adjust parameters of the models predicting the timing of bud break of Scots pine in order to minimize the difference between observed and predicted dates. The models giving the best performance and century-long daily temperatures were used to reconstruct bud-break time series. The temperature observations were recorded for the period 1908-2014 in Sodankylä, which is located in-between the sapling stands in the north-south direction and for the period 1877-2014 in Karasjok, which is in Norway about 145 km north-west from the northernmost stand of this study. On average buds began to extend in the beginning of May in the southernmost stand and in mid-May in the northernmost stands, and the variation between years was in the range of 3 weeks. A simple day-length-triggered (fixed date) model predicted most accurately the date of bud break; root mean square error (RMSE) was 2 and 4 days in the northern and southern site, respectively. The reconstructed bud-break series indicated that based on temperature observations from Sodankylä, growth onset of Scots pine has clearly advanced since the 1960s, though it currently matches that of the early 1920s and early 1950s. The temperature record from Karasjok indicated a similar variation, though there was a weak linear trend advancing bud break by about 3-4 days over a 100-year period.

  13. Modeling of bud break of Scots pine in northern Finland in 1908–2014

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salminen, Hannu; Jalkanen, Risto

    2015-01-01

    Bud break and height-growth of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) in the northern boreal zone in Lapland, Finland, was followed through the entire growing seasons in the periods 2001–2003 and 2008–2010 in sapling stands in two different locations in northern Finland set some 250 km apart along a latitudinal transect. Field measurements continued at the southern site also in 2011–2013. Air temperature was recorded hourly at the sites. A simple optimization algorithm (GA) was used to adjust parameters of the models predicting the timing of bud break of Scots pine in order to minimize the difference between observed and predicted dates. The models giving the best performance and century-long daily temperatures were used to reconstruct bud-break time series. The temperature observations were recorded for the period 1908–2014 in Sodankylä, which is located in-between the sapling stands in the north–south direction and for the period 1877–2014 in Karasjok, which is in Norway about 145 km north–west from the northernmost stand of this study. On average buds began to extend in the beginning of May in the southernmost stand and in mid-May in the northernmost stands, and the variation between years was in the range of 3 weeks. A simple day-length-triggered (fixed date) model predicted most accurately the date of bud break; root mean square error (RMSE) was 2 and 4 days in the northern and southern site, respectively. The reconstructed bud-break series indicated that based on temperature observations from Sodankylä, growth onset of Scots pine has clearly advanced since the 1960s, though it currently matches that of the early 1920s and early 1950s. The temperature record from Karasjok indicated a similar variation, though there was a weak linear trend advancing bud break by about 3–4 days over a 100-year period. PMID:25798141

  14. Artificial Neural Network Modelling of the Energy Content of Municipal Solid Wastes in Northern Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. B. Oumarou

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The study presents an application of the artificial neural network model using the back propagation learning algorithm to predict the actual calorific value of the municipal solid waste in major cities of the northern part of Nigeria, with high population densities and intense industrial activities. These cities are: Kano, Damaturu, Dutse, Bauchi, Birnin Kebbi, Gusau, Maiduguri, Katsina and Sokoto. Experimental data of the energy content and the physical characterization of the municipal solid waste serve as the input parameter in nature of wood, grass, metal, plastic, food remnants, leaves, glass and paper. Comparative studies were made by using the developed model, the experimental results and a correlation which was earlier developed by the authors to predict the energy content. While predicting the actual calorific value, the maximum error was 0.94% for the artificial neural network model and 5.20% by the statistical correlation. The network with eight neurons and an R2 = 0.96881 in the hidden layer results in a stable and optimum network. This study showed that the artificial neural network approach could successfully be used for energy content predictions from the municipal solid wastes in Northern Nigeria and other areas of similar waste stream and composition.

  15. Hydrogeological flow in gypsum karst areas: some examples from northern Italy and main circulation models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bartolomeo Vigna

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available A Messinian succession containing gypsum beds crops out in northern Italy, mainly in Piedmont and along the northern flank of the Apennine mountains in Emilia-Romagna. These gypsum bodies have been extensively quarried at the surface, in outcrops, and through underground quarries. In Emilia-Romagna these gypsum outcrops can be rather extensive, several km long and up to 1 km wide, while in Piedmont they are mostly covered by silty-marly deposits of Upper Messinian and Pliocene age and show only sparse and small outcrops. The underground quarrying of these evaporite bodies in Piedmont has allowed studying in detail their hydrogeology, and the ways in which water flows through these karst rocks. In contrast, in Emilia-Romagna the hydrogeology of these aquifers has been studied with traditional spring water monitoring and speleological methods. On the basis of the results it has been possible to define three conceptual models regarding the water circulation in these evaporites, similar to the models existing for carbonate aquifers. The models represent aquifers with decreasing vulnerability to pollution, from the more vulnerable system with dominant conduit drainage, characterizing most of the known gypsum aquifers, to those with interconnected conduit drainage and with dispersive circulation.

  16. Modelling catchment management impact on in-stream phosphorus loads in northern Victoria.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vigiak, O; Rattray, D; McInnes, J; Newham, L T H; Roberts, A M

    2012-11-15

    Phosphorus pollution severely impairs the water quality of rivers in Australia and worldwide. Conceptual models have proved useful to assess management impact on phosphorus loads, particularly in data-sparse environments. This paper develops and evaluates the coupling of a point-scale model (HowLeaky2008) to a catchment scale model (CatchMODS) to enhance modelling of farm management impacts on in-stream phosphorus loads. The model was tested in two adjacent catchments in northern Victoria (Avon-Richardson and Avoca), Australia. After calibration of the in-stream attenuation parameter against measurements at gauging stations, the model simulated specific annual phosphorus loads across the catchments well (Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency of 0.52 in the Avon-Richardson and 0.83 for the Avoca catchment). Phosphorus loads at both catchment outlets under current conditions were estimated at 7 t y(-1) and were dominated by field exports. Changes to farm management practices, i.e. the use of perennial pastures in grazing systems and zero-tillage in cropping systems were estimated to reduce phosphorus load by 31% in the Avon-Richardson catchment and 19% in the Avoca catchment, relative to current practices (annual pasture and minimum tillage). The model afforded a major improvement in conceptual modelling by explicit simulation of the impacts of soil and climatic conditions on field-scale exports and by placing them in the context of landscape processes. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Reducing Hypoxia in the Northern Gulf of Mexico: Lessons from Simple and Complex Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Justic, D.; Fertitta, D. A.; Wang, L.

    2016-02-01

    Gulf hypoxia has received considerable scientific and policy attention because of its large size (up to 22,000 square km), potential ecological and economic effects, and the need to understand the implications of various nutrient management strategies in the large Mississippi River watershed. Over the past 20 years, a number of different models have been developed to simulate the severity and areal extent of hypoxia in the northern Gulf of Mexico, and to predict the consequences of management actions. The models range from simple statistical models to complex three-dimensional fully coupled hydrodynamic-biogeochemical models. The size and the complexity of these models have been steadily increasing due to developments in computer technology and computational techniques, and also in response to new scientific paradigms that have emerged over time forcing modelers to broaden the scope of their original models. We presentan overview of hypoxia models developed for the Gulf of Mexico hypoxic zone and discuss the lessons learned, and some fundamental differences between simple and complex models in evaluating the effectiveness of nutrient management strategies for reducing hypoxia.

  18. A GIS-based time-dependent seismic source modeling of Northern Iran

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hashemi, Mahdi; Alesheikh, Ali Asghar; Zolfaghari, Mohammad Reza

    2017-01-01

    The first step in any seismic hazard study is the definition of seismogenic sources and the estimation of magnitude-frequency relationships for each source. There is as yet no standard methodology for source modeling and many researchers have worked on this topic. This study is an effort to define linear and area seismic sources for Northern Iran. The linear or fault sources are developed based on tectonic features and characteristic earthquakes while the area sources are developed based on spatial distribution of small to moderate earthquakes. Time-dependent recurrence relationships are developed for fault sources using renewal approach while time-independent frequency-magnitude relationships are proposed for area sources based on Poisson process. GIS functionalities are used in this study to introduce and incorporate spatial-temporal and geostatistical indices in delineating area seismic sources. The proposed methodology is used to model seismic sources for an area of about 500 by 400 square kilometers around Tehran. Previous researches and reports are studied to compile an earthquake/fault catalog that is as complete as possible. All events are transformed to uniform magnitude scale; duplicate events and dependent shocks are removed. Completeness and time distribution of the compiled catalog is taken into account. The proposed area and linear seismic sources in conjunction with defined recurrence relationships can be used to develop time-dependent probabilistic seismic hazard analysis of Northern Iran.

  19. Dynamic rupture models of earthquakes on the Bartlett Springs Fault, Northern California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lozos, Julian C.; Harris, Ruth A.; Murray, Jessica R.; Lienkaemper, James J.

    2015-01-01

    The Bartlett Springs Fault (BSF), the easternmost branch of the northern San Andreas Fault system, creeps along much of its length. Geodetic data for the BSF are sparse, and surface creep rates are generally poorly constrained. The two existing geodetic slip rate inversions resolve at least one locked patch within the creeping zones. We use the 3-D finite element code FaultMod to conduct dynamic rupture models based on both geodetic inversions, in order to determine the ability of rupture to propagate into the creeping regions, as well as to assess possible magnitudes for BSF ruptures. For both sets of models, we find that the distribution of aseismic creep limits the extent of coseismic rupture, due to the contrast in frictional properties between the locked and creeping regions.

  20. Tectonoestratigraphic and Thermal Models of the Tiburon and Wagner Basins, northern Gulf of California Rift System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Contreras, J.; Ramirez Zerpa, N. A.; Negrete-Aranda, R.

    2014-12-01

    The northern Gulf of California Rift System consist sofa series faults that accommodate both normal and strike-slip motion. The faults formed a series of half-greens filled with more than 7 km of siliciclastic suc­cessions. Here, we present tectonostratigraphic and heat flow models for the Tiburón basin, in the southern part of the system, and the Wag­ner basin in the north. The models are constrained by two-dimensional seis­mic lines and by two deep boreholes drilled by PEMEX­-PEP. Analysis of the seismic lines and models' results show that: (i) subsidence of the basins is controlled by high-angle normal faults and by flow of the lower crust, (ii) basins share a common history, and (iii) there are significant differences in the way brittle strain was partitioned in the basins, a feature frequently observed in rift basins. On one hand, the bounding faults of the Tiburón basin have a nested geometry and became active following a west-to-east sequence of activation. The Tiburon half-graben was formed by two pulses of fault activity. One took place during the protogulf extensional phase in the Miocene and the other during the opening of Gulf of California in the Pleistocene. On the other hand, the Wagner basin is the result of two fault generations. During the late-to middle Miocene, the west-dipping Cerro Prieto and San Felipe faults formed a domino array. Then, during the Pleistocene the Consag and Wagner faults dissected the hanging-wall of the Cerro Prieto fault forming the modern Wagner basin. Thermal modeling of the deep borehole temperatures suggests that the heat flow in these basins in the order of 110 mW/m2 which is in agreement with superficial heat flow measurements in the northern Gulf of California Rift System.

  1. A regression modeling approach for studying carbonate system variability in the northern Gulf of Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, Wiley; Mathis, Jeremy T.; Winsor, Peter; Statscewich, Hank; Whitledge, Terry E.

    2013-01-01

    northern Gulf of Alaska (GOA) shelf experiences carbonate system variability on seasonal and annual time scales, but little information exists to resolve higher frequency variability in this region. To resolve this variability using platforms-of-opportunity, we present multiple linear regression (MLR) models constructed from hydrographic data collected along the Northeast Pacific Global Ocean Ecosystems Dynamics (GLOBEC) Seward Line. The empirical algorithms predict dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and total alkalinity (TA) using observations of nitrate (NO3-), temperature, salinity and pressure from the surface to 500 m, with R2s > 0.97 and RMSE values of 11 µmol kg-1 for DIC and 9 µmol kg-1 for TA. We applied these relationships to high-resolution NO3- data sets collected during a novel 20 h glider flight and a GLOBEC mesoscale SeaSoar survey. Results from the glider flight demonstrated time/space along-isopycnal variability of aragonite saturations (Ωarag) associated with a dicothermal layer (a cold near-surface layer found in high latitude oceans) that rivaled changes seen vertically through the thermocline. The SeaSoar survey captured the uplift to aragonite saturation horizon (depth where Ωarag = 1) shoaled to a previously unseen depth in the northern GOA. This work is similar to recent studies aimed at predicting the carbonate system in continental margin settings, albeit demonstrates that a NO3--based approach can be applied to high-latitude data collected from platforms capable of high-frequency measurements.

  2. A proterozoic tectonic model for northern Australia and its economic implications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rossiter, A.G.; Ferguson, J.

    1980-01-01

    It is argued that at the end of Archaean time the Australian continent was confined to the area now occupied by the Yilgarn, Pilbara, Gawler, and Musgrave Blocks, and the southern part of the Arunta Block. During the Early Proterozoic, sedimentary and volcanic rocks were laid down in an extensive depositional zone trending roughly east-west along the northern margin of the Archaean continent. Copper and gold mineralization, commonly showing stratigraphic control, is widespread in this belt. Following deformation and metamorphism of the Early Proterozoic rocks, felsic and mafic igneous activity, and accumulation of platform sediments on the newly stabilized crust, a predominantly north-south depositional zone developed along the eastern margin of the continent during the Middle Proterozoic. Lead and zinc assume much more importance in the mineral deposits of this belt. It is postulated that the present positions of rocks of the Pine Creek and Georgetown regions are due to horizontal displacements of several hundred kilometres along major fault zones. Apparent rifting of these blocks away from palaeo-continental margins may be related to the occurrence of uraniferous granitic rocks and uranium mineralization within them via a mantle plume mechanism. Although current data are limited, tectonic environments suggested for Proterozoic mafic igneous rocks of northern Australia by their geochemistry are compatible with the geological settings of these rocks and with the tectonic model put forward. (author)

  3. PEATBOG: a biogeochemical model for analyzing coupled carbon and nitrogen dynamics in northern peatlands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Y.; Blodau, C.

    2013-08-01

    Elevated nitrogen deposition and climate change alter the vegetation communities and carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) cycling in peatlands. To address this issue we developed a new process-oriented biogeochemical model (PEATBOG) for analyzing coupled carbon and nitrogen dynamics in northern peatlands. The model consists of four submodels, which simulate: (1) daily water table depth and depth profiles of soil moisture, temperature and oxygen levels; (2) competition among three plants functional types (PFTs), production and litter production of plants; (3) decomposition of peat; and (4) production, consumption, diffusion and export of dissolved C and N species in soil water. The model is novel in the integration of the C and N cycles, the explicit spatial resolution belowground, the consistent conceptualization of movement of water and solutes, the incorporation of stoichiometric controls on elemental fluxes and a consistent conceptualization of C and N reactivity in vegetation and soil organic matter. The model was evaluated for the Mer Bleue Bog, near Ottawa, Ontario, with regards to simulation of soil moisture and temperature and the most important processes in the C and N cycles. Model sensitivity was tested for nitrogen input, precipitation, and temperature, and the choices of the most uncertain parameters were justified. A simulation of nitrogen deposition over 40 yr demonstrates the advantages of the PEATBOG model in tracking biogeochemical effects and vegetation change in the ecosystem.

  4. Vegetation controls on northern high latitude snow-albedo feedback: observations and CMIP5 model simulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loranty, Michael M; Berner, Logan T; Goetz, Scott J; Jin, Yufang; Randerson, James T

    2014-02-01

    The snow-masking effect of vegetation exerts strong control on albedo in northern high latitude ecosystems. Large-scale changes in the distribution and stature of vegetation in this region will thus have important feedbacks to climate. The snow-albedo feedback is controlled largely by the contrast between snow-covered and snow-free albedo (Δα), which influences predictions of future warming in coupled climate models, despite being poorly constrained at seasonal and century time scales. Here, we compare satellite observations and coupled climate model representations of albedo and tree cover for the boreal and Arctic region. Our analyses reveal consistent declines in albedo with increasing tree cover, occurring south of latitudinal tree line, that are poorly represented in coupled climate models. Observed relationships between albedo and tree cover differ substantially between snow-covered and snow-free periods, and among plant functional type. Tree cover in models varies widely but surprisingly does not correlate well with model albedo. Furthermore, our results demonstrate a relationship between tree cover and snow-albedo feedback that may be used to accurately constrain high latitude albedo feedbacks in coupled climate models under current and future vegetation distributions. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  5. Assessing the Performance of a Northern Gulf of Mexico Tidal Model Using Satellite Imagery

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephen C. Medeiros

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Tidal harmonic analysis simulations along with simulations spanning four specific historical time periods in 2003 and 2004 were conducted to test the performance of a northern Gulf of Mexico tidal model. A recently developed method for detecting inundated areas based on integrated remotely sensed data (i.e., Radarsat-1, aerial imagery, LiDAR, Landsat 7 ETM+ was applied to assess the performance of the tidal model. The analysis demonstrates the applicability of the method and its agreement with traditional performance assessment techniques such as harmonic resynthesis and water level time series analysis. Based on the flooded/non-flooded coastal areas estimated by the integrated remotely sensed data, the model is able to adequately reproduce the extent of inundation within four sample areas from the coast along the Florida panhandle, correctly identifying areas as wet or dry over 85% of the time. Comparisons of the tidal model inundation to synoptic (point-in-time inundation areas generated from the remotely sensed data generally agree with the results of the traditional performance assessment techniques. Moreover, this approach is able to illustrate the spatial distribution of model inundation accuracy allowing for targeted refinement of model parameters.

  6. Representing Farmer Irrigation Decisions in Northern India: Model Development from the Bottom Up.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Keeffe, J.; Buytaert, W.; Brozovic, N.; Mijic, A.

    2017-12-01

    The plains of northern India are among the most intensely populated and irrigated regions of the world. Sustaining water demand has been made possible by exploiting the vast and hugely productive aquifers underlying the Indo-Gangetic basin. However, an increasing demand from a growing population and highly variable socio-economic and environmental variables mean present resources may not be sustainable, resulting in water security becoming one of India's biggest challenges. Unless solutions which take into consideration the regions evolving anthropogenic and environmental conditions are found, the sustainability of India's water resources looks bleak. Understanding water user decisions and their potential outcome is important for development of suitable water resource management options. Computational models are commonly used to assist water use decision making, typically representing natural processes well. The inclusion of human decision making however, one of the dominant drivers of change, has lagged behind. Improved representation of irrigation water user behaviour within models provides more accurate, relevant information for irrigation management. This research conceptualizes and proceduralizes observed farmer irrigation practices, highlighting feedbacks between the environment and livelihood. It is developed using a bottom up approach, informed through field experience and stakeholder interaction in Uttar Pradesh, northern India. Real world insights are incorporated through collected information creating a realistic representation of field conditions, providing a useful tool for policy analysis and water management. The modelling framework is applied to four districts. Results suggest predicted future climate will have little direct impact on water resources, crop yields or farmer income. In addition, increased abstraction may be sustainable in some areas under carefully managed conditions. By simulating dynamic decision making, feedbacks and interactions

  7. A Sensitivity Study on Modeling Black Carbon in Snow and its Radiative Forcing over the Arctic and Northern China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Qian, Yun; Wang, Hailong; Zhang, Rudong; Flanner, M. G.; Rasch, Philip J.

    2014-06-02

    Black carbon in snow (BCS) simulated in the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM5) is evaluated against measurements over Northern China and the Arctic, and its sensitivity to atmospheric deposition and two parameters that affect post-depositional enrichment is explored. The BCS concentration is overestimated (underestimated) by a factor of two in Northern China (Arctic) in the default model, but agreement with observations is good over both regions in the simulation with improvements in BC transport and deposition. Sensitivity studies indicate that uncertainty in the melt-water scavenging efficiency (MSE) parameter substantially affects BCS and its radiative forcing (by a factor of 2-7) in the Arctic through post-depositional enrichment. The MSE parameter has a relatively small effect on the magnitude of BCS seasonal cycle but can alter its phase in Northern China. The impact of the snow aging scaling factor (SAF) on BCS, partly through the post-depositional enrichment effect, shows more complex latitudinal and seasonal dependence. Similar to MSE, SAF affects more significantly the magnitude (phase) of BCS season cycle over the Arctic (Northern China). While uncertainty associated with the representation of BC transport and deposition processes in CAM5 is more important than that associated with the two snow model parameters in Northern China, the two uncertainties have comparable effect in the Arctic.

  8. Regional integrated solid waste management: an optimization model for northern Lebanon

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abou Najm, M.; El Fadel, M.; El-Taha, M.; Ayoub, G.; Al-Awar

    2000-01-01

    Full text.Increased environmental concerns and the emphasis on material and energy recovery are gradually changing the orientation of municipal solid waste (MSW) management and planning. In this context, the application of optimization techniques have been introduced to design the least cost solid waste management systems, considering the variety of management processes (recycling, composting, anaerobic digestion, incineration and land filling) and the existence of uncertainties associated with the number of system components and their interrelations. This study presents a model that was developed and applied to serve as a solid socio-economic and environmental considerations. The model accounts for solid waste generation rates, composition, collection, treatment, disposal as well as potential environmental impacts of various MSW management techniques. The model follows a linear programming formulation with the framework of dynamic optimization. The model can serve as a tool to evaluate various MSW management alternatives and obtain the optimal combination of technologies for the handling, treatment and disposal of MSW in an economic and environmentally sustainable way. The sensitivity of various waste management policies is also addressed. Finally, the region of Northern Lebanon was considered as a case study with data collected for the year 2000, to demonstrate the applicability of the model

  9. Estimating future dental services' demand and supply: a model for Northern Germany.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jäger, Ralf; van den Berg, Neeltje; Hoffmann, Wolfgang; Jordan, Rainer A; Schwendicke, Falk

    2016-04-01

    To plan dental services, a spatial estimation of future demands and supply is required. We aimed at estimating demand and supply in 2030 in Northern Germany based on the expected local socio-demography and oral-health-related morbidity, and the predicted number of dentists and their working time. All analyses were performed on zip-code level. Register data were used to determine the number of retiring dentists and to construct regression models for estimating the number of dentists moving into each zip-code area until 2030. Demand was modelled using projected demography and morbidities. Demand-supply ratios were evaluated and spatial analyses applied. Sensitivity analyses were employed to assess robustness of our findings. Compared with 2011, the population decreased (-7% to -11%) and aged (from mean 46 to 51 years) until 2030. Oral-health-related morbidity changed, leading to more periodontal and fewer prosthetic treatments needs, with the overall demand decreasing in all scenarios (-25% to -33%). In contrast, the overall number of dentists did only limitedly change, resulting in moderate decrease in the supplied service quantities (max. -22%). Thus, the demand-supply ratio increased in all but the worst case scenario, but was unequally distributed between spatial units, with several areas being over- and some being under- or none-serviced in 2030. Within the limitations of the underlying data and the required assumptions, this study expects an increasingly polarized ratio of dental services demand and supply in Northern Germany. Our estimation allows to assess the impact of different influence factors on demand or supply and to specifically identify potential challenges for workforce planning and regulation in different spatial units. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  10. Generation of a mixture model ground-motion prediction equation for Northern Chile

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haendel, A.; Kuehn, N. M.; Scherbaum, F.

    2012-12-01

    observed ground motion data in the region of interest) is then transferring information from other regions to the region where the observations have been produced in a data driven way. The backbone model is learned by comparing the model predictions to observations of the target region. For each observation and each model, the likelihood of an observation given a certain GMPE is calculated. Mixture weights can then be assigned using the expectation maximization (EM) algorithm or Bayesian inference. The new method is used to generate a backbone reference model for Northern Chile, an area for which no dedicated GMPE exists. Strong motion recordings from the target area are used to learn the backbone model from a set of 10 GMPEs developed for different subduction zones of the world. The formation of mixture models is done individually for interface and intraslab type events. The ability of the resulting backbone models to describe ground motions in Northern Chile is then compared to the predictive performance of their constituent models.

  11. A mesoscale model study of atmospheric circulations for the northern hemisphere summer on Mars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tyler, Daniel, Jr.

    The Penn-State/NCAR MM5 mesoscale model was adapted for mesoscale simulations of the Martian atmosphere (the OSU MMM5). The NASA Ames Mars GCM provides initial and boundary conditions. High-resolution maps for albedo, thermal inertia and topography were developed from Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) data; these baseline maps are processed to appropriate resolutions for use in the GCM and the mesoscale model. The OSU MMM5 is validated in Chapter 2 by comparing with surface meteorology observed at the Viking Lander 1 (VL1) and Mars Pathfinder (MPF) landing sites. How the diurnal cycle of surface pressure (the surface pressure tide) is affected by boundaries, domain/nest choices and the resolution of surface properties (topography, albedo and thermal inertia) is examined. Chapter 2 additionally shows the influence of regional slope flows in the diurnal surface pressure cycle for certain locations on Mars. Building on the methods of Chapter 2, Chapter 3 describes the northern midsummer polar circulation and the circulations (both large and small scale) that influence it. Improvements to the model for these studies include: the topographical gradient is now considered when computing surface insolation, and the thermal inertia maps and model initialization are improved for high latitudes; this yields a realistic simulation of surface temperatures for the North Pole Residual Cap (NPRC) and the surrounding region. The midsummer polar circulation is vigorous, with abundant and dynamically important transient eddies. The preferred locations of transients varies significantly during this study, between L s = 120 and L s = 150. At L s = 120 transient circulations are seen primarily along the NPRC margin, consistently producing strong flow over the residual cap (~15 m/s). By L s = 135, transient eddies form a "storm track" between the northern slopes of Tharsis and the NPRC. By L s = 150, the circulation is becoming strong and winter-like. These transient eddies may be important in

  12. PM10 modeling in the Oviedo urban area (Northern Spain) by using multivariate adaptive regression splines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nieto, Paulino José García; Antón, Juan Carlos Álvarez; Vilán, José Antonio Vilán; García-Gonzalo, Esperanza

    2014-10-01

    The aim of this research work is to build a regression model of the particulate matter up to 10 micrometers in size (PM10) by using the multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) technique in the Oviedo urban area (Northern Spain) at local scale. This research work explores the use of a nonparametric regression algorithm known as multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) which has the ability to approximate the relationship between the inputs and outputs, and express the relationship mathematically. In this sense, hazardous air pollutants or toxic air contaminants refer to any substance that may cause or contribute to an increase in mortality or serious illness, or that may pose a present or potential hazard to human health. To accomplish the objective of this study, the experimental dataset of nitrogen oxides (NOx), carbon monoxide (CO), sulfur dioxide (SO2), ozone (O3) and dust (PM10) were collected over 3 years (2006-2008) and they are used to create a highly nonlinear model of the PM10 in the Oviedo urban nucleus (Northern Spain) based on the MARS technique. One main objective of this model is to obtain a preliminary estimate of the dependence between PM10 pollutant in the Oviedo urban area at local scale. A second aim is to determine the factors with the greatest bearing on air quality with a view to proposing health and lifestyle improvements. The United States National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) establishes the limit values of the main pollutants in the atmosphere in order to ensure the health of healthy people. Firstly, this MARS regression model captures the main perception of statistical learning theory in order to obtain a good prediction of the dependence among the main pollutants in the Oviedo urban area. Secondly, the main advantages of MARS are its capacity to produce simple, easy-to-interpret models, its ability to estimate the contributions of the input variables, and its computational efficiency. Finally, on the basis of

  13. Analyzing Source Apportioned Methane in Northern California During DISCOVER-AQ-CA Using Airborne Measurements and Model Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Matthew S.

    2014-01-01

    This study analyzes source apportioned methane (CH4) emissions and atmospheric concentrations in northern California during the Discover-AQ-CA field campaign using airborne measurement data and model simulations. Source apportioned CH4 emissions from the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR) version 4.2 were applied in the 3-D chemical transport model GEOS-Chem and analyzed using airborne measurements taken as part of the Alpha Jet Atmospheric eXperiment over the San Francisco Bay Area (SFBA) and northern San Joaquin Valley (SJV). During the time period of the Discover-AQ-CA field campaign EDGAR inventory CH4 emissions were 5.30 Gg/day (Gg 1.0 109 grams) (equating to 1.9 103 Gg/yr) for all of California. According to EDGAR, the SFBA and northern SJV region contributes 30 of total emissions from California. Source apportionment analysis during this study shows that CH4 concentrations over this area of northern California are largely influenced by global emissions from wetlands and local/global emissions from gas and oil production and distribution, waste treatment processes, and livestock management. Model simulations, using EDGAR emissions, suggest that the model under-estimates CH4 concentrations in northern California (average normalized mean bias (NMB) -5 and linear regression slope 0.25). The largest negative biases in the model were calculated on days when hot spots of local emission sources were measured and atmospheric CH4 concentrations reached values 3.0 parts per million (model NMB -10). Sensitivity emission studies conducted during this research suggest that local emissions of CH4 from livestock management processes are likely the primary source of the negative model bias. These results indicate that a variety, and larger quantity, of measurement data needs to be obtained and additional research is necessary to better quantify source apportioned CH4 emissions in California and further the understanding of the physical processes

  14. A New Model of the Early Paleozoic Tectonics and Evolutionary History in the Northern Qinling, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Yunpeng; Zhang, Guowei; Yang, Zhao; Qu, Hongjun; Liu, Xiaoming

    2010-05-01

    Qinling Island-arc Terrane and the Northern China Block caused by closing of the Early Paleozoic back-arc basin. Additionally, the studies of the metamorphism show that there are two zones of high / ultra-high pressure metamorphic rocks outcropping along the both side of the Northern Qingling island-arc terrane. On the north, it is characterized by eclogite and coesite outcropping in the Guanpo area, and the metamorphic zircon U-Pb age of 507±38 Ma and 509±12 Ma by means of SHRIM (Yang et al., 2002). Meanwhile, there also exist some high pressure basic granulite (Liu et al., 1995) and felsic granulite (Liu et al., 1996) distributing in the Xigou fault on the south margin of the Northern Qingling island-arc terrane. Zircon U-Pb ages of 485±3.3 Ma by means of LA-ICP-MS method (Chen et al., 2004) and 518±12 Ma by means of SHRIM (Liu et al., 2003) constrain the time of the metamorphism. All these metamorphic data suggest the Northern Qingling island-arc terrane had been evolved into a deep subduction event during 485-518 Ma. Based on all above evidences, we infer a new model about the tectonics and evolutionary history of the Norhtern Qinling Terrane. It is emphasized that the Early Paleozoic tectonics between the North China and Southern China Blocks had existed an ocean, island-arc and back-arc basin, and evolved into four stages of evolutionary stages: 1) initial spreading along the Shangdan zone during 516-523 Ma; 2) maturated ocean along the Shangdan zone during 516-471 Ma; 3) subduction along the south side of the Northern Qinling Terrane and formation of the Back-arc basin along the north side of the Northern Qinling Terrane during518-514; 4) closing of the back-arc basin, collision between the Northern Qingling island-arc terrane and the Northern China Block, and deep subduction of the Northern Qingling island-arc terrane during 518-485Ma. This work was supported by NSFC (40772140 & 40972140)

  15. Developing and testing a landscape habitat suitability model for fisher (Martes pennanti) in forests of interior northern California

    Science.gov (United States)

    W.J. Zielinski; J. R. Dunk; J. S. Yaeger; D. W. LaPlante

    2010-01-01

    The fisher is warranted for protection under the Endangered Species Act in the western United States and, as such, it is especially important that conservation and management actions are based on sound scientific information. We developed a landscape-scale suitability model for interior northern California to predict the probability of detecting fishers and to identify...

  16. Modelling Growth of Juvenile Crown-of-Thorns Starfish on the Northern Great Barrier Reef

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jennifer Wilmes

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The corallivorous crown-of-thorns starfish (Acanthaster spp. is a major cause of coral mortality on Indo-Pacific reefs. Despite considerable research into the biology of crown-of-thorns starfish, our understanding of the early post-settlement life stage has been hindered by the small size and cryptic nature of recently settled individuals. Most growth rates are derived from either laboratory studies or field studies conducted in Fiji and Japan. The Great Barrier Reef (GBR is currently experiencing its fourth recorded outbreak and population models to inform the progression of outbreaks lack critical growth rates of early life history stages. High numbers of 0+ year juveniles (n = 3532 were measured during extensive surveys of 64 reefs on the northern GBR between May and December 2015. An exponential growth model was fitted to the size measurement data to estimate monthly ranges of growth rates for 0+ year juveniles. Estimated growth rates varied considerably and increased with age (e.g., 0.028–0.041 mm·day−1 for one-month-old juveniles versus 0.108–0.216 mm·day−1 for twelve-month-old juveniles. This pioneering study of 0+ year juveniles on the GBR will inform population models and form the basis for more rigorous ongoing research to understand the fate of newly settled Acanthaster spp.

  17. Gap Models as Tools for Sustainable Development under Environmental Changes in Northern Eurasia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shugart, H. H., Jr.; Wang, B.; Brazhnik, K.; Armstrong, A. H.; Foster, A.

    2017-12-01

    Agent-based models of complex systems or as used in this review, Individual-based Models (IBMs), emerged in the 1960s and early 1970s, across diverse disciplines from astronomy to zoology. IBMs arose from a deeply embedded ecological tradition of understanding the dynamics of ecosystems from a "bottom-up" accounting of the interactions of the parts. In this case, individual trees are principal among the parts. Because they are computationally demanding, these models have prospered as the power of digital computers has increased exponentially over the decades following the 1970s. Forest IBMs are no longer computationally bound from developing continental- or global-scale simulations of responses of forests to climate and other changes. Gap models simulate the changes in forests by simulating the birth, growth and death of each individual tree on small plots of land that in summation comprise a forest (or set of sample plots on a forested landscape or region). Currently, gap models have grown from continental-scale and even global-scale applications to assess the potential consequences of climate change on natural forests. These predictions are valuable in the planning and anticipatory decision-making needed to sustainably manage a vast region such as Northern Eurasia. Modifications to the models have enabled simulation of disturbances including fire, insect outbreak and harvest. These disturbances have significant exogenous drivers, notably weather variables, but their effects are also a function of the endogenous conditions involving the structure of forest itself. This feedback between the forest and its environment can in some cases produce hysteresis and multiple-stable operating-regimes for forests. Such responses, often characterized as "tipping points" could play a significant role in increasing risk under environmental change, notably global warming. Such dynamics in a management context imply regional systems that could be "unforgiving" of management

  18. Application of Bayesian methods to habitat selection modeling of the northern spotted owl in California: new statistical methods for wildlife research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howard B. Stauffer; Cynthia J. Zabel; Jeffrey R. Dunk

    2005-01-01

    We compared a set of competing logistic regression habitat selection models for Northern Spotted Owls (Strix occidentalis caurina) in California. The habitat selection models were estimated, compared, evaluated, and tested using multiple sample datasets collected on federal forestlands in northern California. We used Bayesian methods in interpreting...

  19. Modeling co-occurrence of northern spotted and barred owls: accounting for detection probability differences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larissa L. Bailey; Janice A. Reid; Eric D. Forsman; James D. Nichols

    2009-01-01

    Barred owls (Strix valia) have recently expanded their range and now encompass the entire range of the northern spotted owl (Strix ocddentalis caulina). This expansion has led to two important issues of concern for management of northern spotted owls: (1) possible competitive interactions between the two species that could...

  20. Assessment of model estimates of land-atmosphere CO2 exchange across Northern Eurasia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rawlins, M. A.; McGuire, A. D.; Kimball, J. S.; Dass, P.; Lawrence, D.; Burke, E.; Chen, X.; Delire, C.; Koven, C.; MacDougall, A.; Peng, S.; Rinke, A.; Saito, K.; Zhang, W.; Alkama, R.; Bohn, T. J.; Ciais, P.; Decharme, B.; Gouttevin, I.; Hajima, T.; Ji, D.; Krinner, G.; Lettenmaier, D. P.; Miller, P.; Moore, J. C.; Smith, B.; Sueyoshi, T.

    2015-07-01

    A warming climate is altering land-atmosphere exchanges of carbon, with a potential for increased vegetation productivity as well as the mobilization of permafrost soil carbon stores. Here we investigate land-atmosphere carbon dioxide (CO2) cycling through analysis of net ecosystem productivity (NEP) and its component fluxes of gross primary productivity (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (ER) and soil carbon residence time, simulated by a set of land surface models (LSMs) over a region spanning the drainage basin of Northern Eurasia. The retrospective simulations cover the period 1960-2009 at 0.5° resolution, which is a scale common among many global carbon and climate model simulations. Model performance benchmarks were drawn from comparisons against both observed CO2 fluxes derived from site-based eddy covariance measurements as well as regional-scale GPP estimates based on satellite remote-sensing data. The site-based comparisons depict a tendency for overestimates in GPP and ER for several of the models, particularly at the two sites to the south. For several models the spatial pattern in GPP explains less than half the variance in the MODIS MOD17 GPP product. Across the models NEP increases by as little as 0.01 to as much as 0.79 g C m-2 yr-2, equivalent to 3 to 340 % of the respective model means, over the analysis period. For the multimodel average the increase is 135 % of the mean from the first to last 10 years of record (1960-1969 vs. 2000-2009), with a weakening CO2 sink over the latter decades. Vegetation net primary productivity increased by 8 to 30 % from the first to last 10 years, contributing to soil carbon storage gains. The range in regional mean NEP among the group is twice the multimodel mean, indicative of the uncertainty in CO2 sink strength. The models simulate that inputs to the soil carbon pool exceeded losses, resulting in a net soil carbon gain amid a decrease in residence time. Our analysis points to improvements in model elements

  1. Water Budget Model for a Remnant of the Historic Northern Everglades

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arceneaux, J. C.; Meselhe, E. A.; Habib, E.; Waldon, M. G.

    2006-12-01

    The Arthur R. Marshall Loxahatchee National Wildlife Refuge overlays an area termed Water Conservation Area 1 (WCA-1, a 143,000 acre (58,000 ha) freshwater wetland. It is a remnant of the northern Everglades in Palm Beach County, Florida, USA. Sheetflow that naturally would flow across the Refuge wetlands was disrupted in the 1950s and early 1960s by construction of stormwater pumps, and levees with associated borrow canals which hydraulically isolated the Refuge from its watershed. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Services (USFWS) concludes that changes in the water quantity, timing, and quality have caused negative impacts to the Refuge ecosystem. It is a top priority of the Refuge to ensure appropriate management that will produce maximum benefits for fish and wildlife, while meeting flood control and water supply needs. Models can improve our understanding and support improvement in these management decisions. The development of a water budget for the Loxahatchee Refuge will provide one useful modeling tool in support of Refuge water management decisions. The water budget model reported here was developed as a double- box (2-compartment) model with a daily time step that predicts temporal variations of water level in the Refuge rim canal and interior marsh based on observed inflows, outflows, precipitation, and evapotranspiration. The water budget model was implemented using Microsoft EXCEL. The model calibration period was from January 1, 1995 to December 31, 1999; the validation period extended from January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2004. Statistical analyses demonstrate the utility of this simple water budget model to predict the temporal variation of water levels in both the Refuge marsh and rim canal. The Refuge water budget model is currently being applied to evaluate various water management scenarios for the Refuge. Preliminary results modeling the mass balance of water quality constituents, including chloride, total phosphorus are encouraging. Success of this

  2. Statistical Modelling of the Energy Content of Municipal Solid Wastes in Northern Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. B. Oumarou

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available The ability to predict the quantity of energy to be produced is of paramount importance in every country. It would assist in setting up a waste management plan which will lead to a sustainable energy policy. This paper presents the development of a statistical linear regression mathematical model to predict the amount of energy contained in municipal solid wastes from the knowledge of such characteristics of the wastes as physical composition and/or moisture content. Major cities of Kano, Katsina, Dutse, Damaturu, Maiduguri, Bauchi, Birnin Kebbi, Gusau and Sokoto in Northern Nigeria, with high population densities and intense industrial activities constituted the area of study. Ten kilogram each, of the municipal solid waste was collected from the government designated refuse dumping sites in both highly dense populated low income areas and government residential areas, during the hottest months of February, March and April and during the rainy season in the month of August for three years. The waste material was prepared for the determination of its physical characteristics by sifting through. Proximate, ultimate analyses and calorific values were determined using ASTM analytical techniques and formulas from the literature. An empirical linear regression based mathematical model was developed using statistical methods and experimental data. Comparison between experimental and predicted values of the calorific values showed an agreement of about 70% with an average deviation of 5.03% while the standard deviation was found to be 5.29%.

  3. Testing a social ecological model for relations between political violence and child adjustment in Northern Ireland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cummings, E Mark; Merrilees, Christine E; Schermerhorn, Alice C; Goeke-Morey, Marcie C; Shirlow, Peter; Cairns, Ed

    2010-05-01

    Relations between political violence and child adjustment are matters of international concern. Past research demonstrates the significance of community, family, and child psychological processes in child adjustment, supporting study of interrelations between multiple social ecological factors and child adjustment in contexts of political violence. Testing a social ecological model, 300 mothers and their children (M = 12.28 years, SD = 1.77) from Catholic and Protestant working class neighborhoods in Belfast, Northern Ireland, completed measures of community discord, family relations, and children's regulatory processes (i.e., emotional security) and outcomes. Historical political violence in neighborhoods based on objective records (i.e., politically motivated deaths) were related to family members' reports of current sectarian antisocial behavior and nonsectarian antisocial behavior. Interparental conflict and parental monitoring and children's emotional security about both the community and family contributed to explanatory pathways for relations between sectarian antisocial behavior in communities and children's adjustment problems. The discussion evaluates support for social ecological models for relations between political violence and child adjustment and its implications for understanding relations in other parts of the world.

  4. WRF-model data assimilation studies of landfalling atmospheric rivers and orographic precipitation over Northern California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eiserloh, Arthur J., Jr.

    In this study, data assimilation methods of 3-D variational analysis (3DVAR), observation nudging, and analysis (grid) nudging were evaluated in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model for a high-impact, multi-episode landfalling atmospheric river (AR) event for Northern California from 28 November to 3 December, 2012. Eight experiments were designed to explore various combinations of the data assimilation methods and different initial conditions. The short-to-medium range quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) performances were tested for each experiment. Surface observations from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Hydrometeorology Network (HMT), National Weather Service (NWS) radiosondes, and GPS Radio Occultation (RO) vertical profiles from the Constellation Observing System for Meteorology Ionosphere and Climate (COSMIC) satellites were used for assimilation. Model results 2.5 days into the forecast showed slower timing of the 2nd AR episode by a few hours and an underestimation in AR strength. For the entire event forecasts, the non-grid-nudging experiments showed the lowest mean absolute error (MAE) for rainfall accumulations, especially those with 3DVAR. Higher-resolution initial conditions showed more realistic coastal QPFs. Also, a 3-h nudging time interval and time window for observation nudging and 3DVAR, respectively, may be too large for this type of event, and it did not show skill until 60-66 h into the forecast.

  5. A Next Model of Northern Hemisphere Glaciation History: ICE-6G (VM5a)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peltier, W. R.; Argus, D.; Gyllencreutz, R.; Mangerud, J.; Lohne, O. S.; Svendsen, J.

    2009-12-01

    Models of the evolving paleo-topography of the continents and paleo-bathymetry of the oceans, together with the evolving “masks” of the land-sea and surface albedo distributions, are required inputs for the application of modern coupled climate models in the reconstruction of past climate conditions. Previous reconstructions in the ICE-NG (VMX) sequence have relied almost exclusively upon ice-margin data sets to control the time dependence of the regions covered by glacial ice and the availability of radio-carbon dated relative sea level histories to control the evolution of continental ice-sheet thickness. In the past several years new space-geodetically derived data sets have become available that are allowing a further improvement in the accuracy of these reconstructions of environmental conditions over the period from Last Glacial Maximum to the beginning of the Holocene interglacial. These geodetic measurements include the time dependent gravitational field data being provided by the GRACE satellite system, as well as Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI), Global Positioning System (GPS), Satellite Laser Ranging (SLR), and DORIS measurements of the present day rates of surface crustal displacement in both the vertical and horizontal directions.Furthermore, and in connection with our ability to understand the details of Eurasian deglaciation, a new model of ice-margin positions in this region has been produced that similarly impacts our understanding of glacial history throughout northwestern Europe. In this paper we will describe the revised model of northern hemisphere deglaciation that has enabled us to significantly improve upon the most recent ICE-5G (VM2) model that has continued to serve as the standard in this area since it was first published in 2004. The misfits if this model to the new space-geodetic data sets have recently been tabulated in Argus and Peltier (2009, GJI, submitted). Specific improvements to the previous model that will be the

  6. Modelling the fate of pesticides in paddy rice-fish pond farming system in Northern Vietnam

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lamers, M.; Nguyen, N.; Streck, T.

    2012-04-01

    During the last decade rice production in Vietnam has tremendously increased due to the introduction of new high yield, short duration rice varieties and an increased application of pesticides. Since pesticides are toxic by design, there is a natural concern on the possible impacts of their presence in the environment on human health and environment quality. In North Vietnam, lowland and upland rice fields were identified to be a major non-point source of agrochemical pollution to surface and ground water, which are often directly used for domestic purposes. Field measurements, however, are time consuming, costly and logistical demanding. Hence, quantification, forecast and risk assessment studies are hampered by a limited amount of field data. One potential way to cope with this shortcoming is the use of process-based models. In the present study we developed a model for simulating short-term pesticide dynamics in combined paddy rice field - fish pond farming systems under the specific environmental conditions of south-east Asia. Basic approaches and algorithms to describe the key underlying biogeochemical processes were mainly adopted from the literature to assure that the model reflects the current standard of scientific knowledge and commonly accepted theoretical background. The model was calibrated by means of the Gauss-Marquardt-Levenberg algorithm and validated against measured pesticide concentrations (dimethoate and fenitrothion) during spring and summer rice crop season 2008, respectively, of a paddy field - fish pond system typical for northern Vietnam. First simulation results indicate that our model is capable to simulate the fate of pesticides in such paddy - fish pond farming systems. The model efficiency for the period of calibration, for example, was 0.97 and 0.95 for dimethoate and fenitrothion, respectively. For the period of validation, however, the modeling efficiency slightly decreased to 0.96 and 0.81 for dimethoate and fenitrothion

  7. Performance analysis of coupled and uncoupled hydrodynamic and wave models in the northern Adriatic Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Busca, Claudia; Coluccelli, Alessandro; Valentini, Andrea; Benetazzo, Alvise; Bonaldo, Davide; Bortoluzzi, Giovanni; Carniel, Sandro; Falcieri, Francesco; Paccagnella, Tiziana; Ravaioli, Mariangela; Riminucci, Francesco; Sclavo, Mauro; Russo, Aniello

    2014-05-01

    The complex dynamics of the Adriatic Sea are the result of geographical position, orography and bathymetry, as well as rivers discharge and meteorological conditions that influence, more strongly, the shallow northern part. Such complexity requires a constant monitoring of marine conditions in order to support several activities (marine resources management, naval operations, emergency management, shipping, tourism, as well as scientific ones). Platforms, buoys and mooring located in Adriatic Sea supply almost continuously real time punctual information, which can be spatially extended, with some limitations, by drifters and remote sensing. Operational forecasting systems represent valid tools to provide a complete tridimensional coverage of the area, with a high spatial and temporal resolution. The Hydro-Meteo-Clima Service of the Emilia-Romagna Environmental Agency (ARPA-SIMC, Bologna, Italy) and the Dept. of Life and Environmental Sciences of Università Politecnica delle Marche (DISVA-UNIVPM, Ancona, Italy), in collaboration with the Institute of Marine Science of the National Research Council (ISMAR-CNR, Italy) operationally run several wave and hydrodynamic models on the Adriatic Sea. The main implementations are based on the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS), the wave model Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN), and the coupling of the former two models in the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport (COAWST) system. Horizontal resolutions of the different systems range from the 2 km of AdriaROMS to the 0.5 km of the recently implemented northern Adriatic COAWST. Forecasts are produced every day for the subsequent 72 hour with hourly resolution. All the systems compute the fluxes exchanged through the interface with the atmosphere from the numerical weather prediction system named COSMO-I7, an implementation for Italy of the Consortium for Small-scale Modeling (COSMO) model, at 7 km horizontal resolution. Considering the several operational

  8. Impact of an improved WRF urban canopy model on diurnal air temperature simulation over northern Taiwan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C.-Y. Lin

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available This study evaluates the impact of urbanization over northern Taiwan using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF Model coupled with the Noah land-surface model and a modified urban canopy model (WRF–UCM2D. In the original UCM coupled to WRF (WRF–UCM, when the land use in the model grid is identified as "urban", the urban fraction value is fixed. Similarly, the UCM assumes the distribution of anthropogenic heat (AH to be constant. This may not only lead to over- or underestimation of urban fraction and AH in urban and non-urban areas, but spatial variation also affects the model-estimated temperature. To overcome the abovementioned limitations and to improve the performance of the original UCM model, WRF–UCM is modified to consider the 2-D urban fraction and AH (WRF–UCM2D.The two models were found to have comparable temperature simulation performance for urban areas, but large differences in simulated results were observed for non-urban areas, especially at nighttime. WRF–UCM2D yielded a higher correlation coefficient (R2 than WRF–UCM (0.72 vs. 0.48, respectively, while bias and RMSE achieved by WRF–UCM2D were both significantly smaller than those attained by WRF–UCM (0.27 and 1.27 vs. 1.12 and 1.89, respectively. In other words, the improved model not only enhanced correlation but also reduced bias and RMSE for the nighttime data of non-urban areas. WRF–UCM2D performed much better than WRF–UCM at non-urban stations with a low urban fraction during nighttime. The improved simulation performance of WRF–UCM2D in non-urban areas is attributed to the energy exchange which enables efficient turbulence mixing at a low urban fraction. The result of this study has a crucial implication for assessing the impacts of urbanization on air quality and regional climate.

  9. Assessing data assimilation and model boundary error strategies for high resolution ocean model downscaling in the Northern North Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sandvig Mariegaard, Jesper; Huiban, Méven Robin; Tornfeldt Sørensen, Jacob; Andersson, Henrik

    2017-04-01

    . The success of the downscaling is to a large degree determined by the ability to realistically describe and dynamically model the errors on the open boundaries. Three different sizes of downscaling model domains in the Northern North Sea have been examined and two different strategies for modelling the uncertainties on the open Flather boundaries are investigated. The combined downscaling and local data assimilation skill is assessed and the impact on recommended domain size is compared to pure downscaling.

  10. Analysis of overdeepened valleys using the digital elevation model of the bedrock surface of Northern Switzerland

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jordan, P.

    2010-11-15

    Based on surface and borehole information, together with pre-existing regional and local interpretations, a 7,150 square kilometre Raster Digital Elevation Model (DEM) of the bedrock surface of northern Switzerland was constructed using a 25 m cell size. This model represents a further important step in the understanding of Quaternary sediment distribution and is open to a broad field of application and analysis, including hydrogeological, geotechnical and geophysical studies as well as research in the field of Pleistocene landscape evolution. An analysis of the overdeepened valleys in the whole model area and, more specifically in the Reuss area, shows that, in most cases, overdeepening is restricted to the areas covered by the Last Glaciation Maximum (LGM). However, at various locations relatively narrow overdeepened valleys outreach the tongue basins and the LGM ice shield limits. Therefore, an earlier and further-reaching glacial event has probably contributed significantly to the overdeepening of these valleys. No significant overdeepening has been identified downstream of Boettstein (Aare) and Kaiserstuhl (Rhine), although the ice extended considerably further downstream, at least during the most extensive glaciation. Except for the bedrock between Brugg and Boettstein, no overdeepened valleys are found significantly north of the outcrop of Mesozoic limestone of the Folded and Tabular Jura. A detailed analysis of the Reuss area shows that the Lake and Suhre valleys are separated from the Emmen-Gisikon Reuss valley basin by a significant bedrock barrier. The individual bedrock valleys are divided into several sub-basins, indicating a multiphase evolution of the valleys. Some of the swells or barriers separating the sub-basins coincide with known late LGM retreat stages. In the Suhre valley, an old fluvial valley floor with restricted overdeepened sections is documented. (author)

  11. Analysis of longitudinal data of beef cattle raised on pasture from northern Brazil using nonlinear models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lopes, Fernando B; da Silva, Marcelo C; Marques, Ednira G; McManus, Concepta M

    2012-12-01

    This study was undertaken to aim of estimating the genetic parameters and trends for asymptotic weight (A) and maturity rate (k) of Nellore cattle from northern Brazil. The data set was made available by the Brazilian Association of Zebu Breeders and collected between the years of 1997 and 2007. The Von Bertalanffy, Brody, Gompertz, and logistic nonlinear models were fitted by the Gauss-Newton method to weight-age data of 45,895 animals collected quarterly of the birth to 750 days old. The curve parameters were analyzed using the procedures GLM and CORR. The estimation of (co)variance components and genetic parameters was obtained using the MTDFREML software. The estimated heritability coefficients were 0.21 ± 0.013 and 0.25 ± 0.014 for asymptotic weight and maturity rate, respectively. This indicates that selection for any trait shall results in genetic progress in the herd. The genetic correlation between A and k was negative (-0.57 ± 0.03) and indicated that animals selected for high maturity rate shall result in low asymptotic weight. The Von Bertalanffy function is adequate to establish the mean growth patterns and to predict the adult weight of Nellore cattle. This model is more accurate in predicting the birth weight of these animals and has better overall fit. The prediction of adult weight using nonlinear functions can be accurate when growth curve parameters and their (co)variance components are estimated jointly. The model used in this study can be applied to the prediction of mature weight in herds where a portion of the animals are culled before they reach the adult age.

  12. NMMB/BSC-DUST: model validation at regional scale in Northern Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haustein, Karsten; Pérez, Carlos; Jorba, Oriol; María Baldasano, José; Janjic, Zavisa; Black, Tom; Slobodan, Nickovic; Prigent, Catherine; Laurent, Benoit

    2010-05-01

    While mineral dust distribution and effects are important at global scales, they strongly depend on dust emissions that are controlled on small spatial and temporal scales. Indeed, the accuracy of surface wind speed used in dust models is crucial. Due to the cubic higher-order power dependency on wind friction velocity and the threshold behaviour of dust emissions, small errors on surface wind speed lead to large dust emission errors. Most global dust models use prescribed wind fields provided by meteorological centres (e.g., NCEP and ECMWF) and their spatial resolution is currently never better than about 1°×1°. Such wind speeds tend to be strongly underestimated over large arid and semi-arid areas and do not account for reflect mesoscale character of systems responsible for a significant fraction of dust emissions regionally and globally. Other Another strong uncertainties in dust emissions from such approaches are related to the missrepresentation originates from of coarse representation of high subgrid-scale spatial heterogeneity in soil and vegetation boundary conditions, mainly in semi-arid areas. With the development of the new model NMMB-BSC/DUST [Pérez et al., 2008], we are now focusing on the evalution of the model sensitivity to several processes related to dust emissions. The results presented here are an intermediate step to provide global dust forecasts up to 7 days at sub-synoptic resolutions in the near future. NMMB-BSC/DUST is coupled online with the NOAA/NCEP/EMC global/regional NMMB atmospheric model [Janjic, 2005] extending from meso to global scales an being fully embedded into the Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF). We performed regional simulations for the Northern African domain, including the Arabian peninsula and southern/central Europe (0 to 65°N and 25°W to 55°E) at 1/3°x1/3° and 1/6x1/6° horizontal resolution with 64 vertical layers. The model is initialized with 6-hourly updated NCEP 1x1° analysis data with a dust spin

  13. Hydrological Modeling in Northern Tunisia with Regional Climate Model Outputs: Performance Evaluation and Bias-Correction in Present Climate Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Asma Foughali

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available This work aims to evaluate the performance of a hydrological balance model in a watershed located in northern Tunisia (wadi Sejnane, 378 km2 in present climate conditions using input variables provided by four regional climate models. A modified version (MBBH of the lumped and single layer surface model BBH (Bucket with Bottom Hole model, in which pedo-transfer parameters estimated using watershed physiographic characteristics are introduced is adopted to simulate the water balance components. Only two parameters representing respectively the water retention capacity of the soil and the vegetation resistance to evapotranspiration are calibrated using rainfall-runoff data. The evaluation criterions for the MBBH model calibration are: relative bias, mean square error and the ratio of mean actual evapotranspiration to mean potential evapotranspiration. Daily air temperature, rainfall and runoff observations are available from 1960 to 1984. The period 1960–1971 is selected for calibration while the period 1972–1984 is chosen for validation. Air temperature and precipitation series are provided by four regional climate models (DMI, ARP, SMH and ICT from the European program ENSEMBLES, forced by two global climate models (GCM: ECHAM and ARPEGE. The regional climate model outputs (precipitation and air temperature are compared to the observations in terms of statistical distribution. The analysis was performed at the seasonal scale for precipitation. We found out that RCM precipitation must be corrected before being introduced as MBBH inputs. Thus, a non-parametric quantile-quantile bias correction method together with a dry day correction is employed. Finally, simulated runoff generated using corrected precipitation from the regional climate model SMH is found the most acceptable by comparison with runoff simulated using observed precipitation data, to reproduce the temporal variability of mean monthly runoff. The SMH model is the most accurate to

  14. Modelling regional variability of irrigation requirements due to climate change in Northern Germany.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riediger, Jan; Breckling, Broder; Svoboda, Nikolai; Schröder, Winfried

    2016-01-15

    The question whether global climate change invalidates the efficiency of established land use practice cannot be answered without systemic considerations on a region specific basis. In this context plant water availability and irrigation requirements, respectively, were investigated in Northern Germany. The regions under investigation--Diepholz, Uelzen, Fläming and Oder-Spree--represent a climatic gradient with increasing continentality from West to East. Besides regional climatic variation and climate change, soil conditions and crop management differ on the regional scale. In the model regions, temporal seasonal droughts influence crop success already today, but on different levels of intensity depending mainly on climate conditions. By linking soil water holding capacities, crop management data and calculations of evapotranspiration and precipitation from the climate change scenario RCP 8.5 irrigation requirements for maintaining crop productivity were estimated for the years 1991 to 2070. Results suggest that water requirement for crop irrigation is likely to increase with considerable regional variation. For some of the regions, irrigation requirements might increase to such an extent that the established regional agricultural practice might be hard to retain. Where water availability is limited, agricultural practice, like management and cultivated crop spectrum, has to be changed to deal with the new challenges. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. Estimation model of soil freeze-thaw erosion in Silingco watershed wetland of Northern Tibet.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kong, Bo; Yu, Huan

    2013-01-01

    The freeze-thaw (FT) erosion is a type of soil erosion like water erosion and wind erosion. Limited by many factors, the grading evaluation of soil FT erosion quantities is not well studied. Based on the comprehensive analysis of the evaluation indices of soil FT erosion, we for the first time utilized the sensitivity of microwave remote sensing technology to soil moisture for identification of FT state. We established an estimation model suitable to evaluate the soil FT erosion quantity in Silingco watershed wetland of Northern Tibet using weighted summation method of six impact factors including the annual FT cycle days, average diurnal FT phase-changed water content, average annual precipitation, slope, aspect, and vegetation coverage. Finally, with the support of GIS, we classified soil FT erosion quantity in Silingco watershed wetland. The results showed that soil FT erosion are distributed in broad areas of Silingco watershed wetland. Different soil FT erosions with different intensities have evidently different spatial and geographical distributions.

  16. Numerical modeling of an intense precipitation event and its associated lightning activity over northern Greece

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pytharoulis, I.; Kotsopoulos, S.; Tegoulias, I.; Kartsios, S.; Bampzelis, D.; Karacostas, T.

    2016-03-01

    This study investigates an intense precipitation event and its lightning activity that affected northern Greece and primarily Thessaloniki on 15 July 2014. The precipitation measurement of 98.5 mm in 15 h at the Aristotle University of Thessaloniki set a new absolute record maximum. The thermodynamic analysis indicated that the event took place in an environment that could support deep thunderstorm activity. The development of this intense event was associated with significant low-level convergence and upper-level divergence even before its triggering and a positive vertical gradient of relative vorticity advection. The high resolution (1.667 km × 1.667 km) non-hydrostatic WRF-ARW numerical weather prediction model was used to simulate this intense precipitation event, while the Lightning Potential Index was utilized to calculate the potential for lightning activity. Sensitivity experiments suggested that although the strong synoptic forcing assumed primary role in the occurrence of intense precipitation and lightning activity, their spatiotemporal variability was affected by topography. The application of the very fine resolution topography of NASA Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission improved the simulated precipitation and the calculated lightning potential.

  17. Analysing and combining atmospheric general circulation model simulations forced by prescribed SST: northern extratropical response

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Maynard

    2001-06-01

    Full Text Available The ECHAM 3.2 (T21, ECHAM 4 (T30 and LMD (version 6, grid-point resolution with 96 longitudes × 72 latitudes atmospheric general circulation models were integrated through the period 1961 to 1993 forced with the same observed Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs as compiled at the Hadley Centre. Three runs were made for each model starting from different initial conditions. The mid-latitude circulation pattern which maximises the covariance between the simulation and the observations, i.e. the most skilful mode, and the one which maximises the covariance amongst the runs, i.e. the most reproducible mode, is calculated as the leading mode of a Singular Value Decomposition (SVD analysis of observed and simulated Sea Level Pressure (SLP and geopotential height at 500 hPa (Z500 seasonal anomalies. A common response amongst the different models, having different resolution and parametrization should be considered as a more robust atmospheric response to SST than the same response obtained with only one model. A robust skilful mode is found mainly in December-February (DJF, and in June-August (JJA. In DJF, this mode is close to the SST-forced pattern found by Straus and Shukla (2000 over the North Pacific and North America with a wavy out-of-phase between the NE Pacific and the SE US on the one hand and the NE North America on the other. This pattern evolves in a NAO-like pattern over the North Atlantic and Europe (SLP and in a more N-S tripole on the Atlantic and European sector with an out-of-phase between the middle Europe on the one hand and the northern and southern parts on the other (Z500. There are almost no spatial shifts between either field around North America (just a slight eastward shift of the highest absolute heterogeneous correlations for SLP relative to the Z500 ones. The time evolution of the SST-forced mode is moderatly to strongly related to the ENSO/LNSO events but the spread amongst the ensemble of runs is not systematically related

  18. Topobathymetric Model of the Northern Gulf of Mexico, 1888 to 2013

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Accurate, high-resolution elevation information is vital to understanding the highly dynamic Northern Gulf Coast, with Louisiana being the location of North...

  19. Estimating inbreeding rates in Northern Spotted Owls: insights from pedigrees and spatio-demographic models

    Science.gov (United States)

    The federally-threatened Northern Spotted Owl (Strix occidentalis caurina) has a substantial influence on management of federal lands. Despite decades of investigation, important details about its status and habits remain unknown. In particular, determining the frequency of inbre...

  20. Observed and modeled tsunami current velocities in Humboldt Bay and Crescent City Harbor, northern California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Admire, A. R.; Dengler, L.; Crawford, G. B.; uslu, B. U.; Montoya, J.

    2012-12-01

    A pilot project was initiated in 2009 in Humboldt Bay, about 370 kilometers (km) north of San Francisco, California, to measure the currents produced by tsunamis. Northern California is susceptible to both near- and far-field tsunamis and has a historic record of damaging events. Crescent City Harbor, located approximately 100 km north of Humboldt Bay, suffered US 20 million in damages from strong currents produced by the 2006 Kuril Islands tsunami and an additional US 20 million from the 2011 Japan tsunami. In order to better evaluate these currents in northern California, we deployed a Nortek Aquadopp 600kHz 2D Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler (ADCP) with a one-minute sampling interval in Humboldt Bay, near the existing National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Ocean Service (NOS) tide gauge station. The instrument recorded the tsunamis produced by the Mw 8.8 Chile earthquake on February 27, 2010 and the Mw 9.0 Japan earthquake on March 11, 2011. Currents from the 2010 tsunami persisted in Humboldt Bay for at least 30 hours with peak amplitudes of about 0.3 meters per second (m/s). The 2011 tsunami signal lasted for over 86 hours with peak amplitude of 0.95 m/s. Strongest currents corresponded to the maximum change in water level as recorded on the NOAA NOS tide gauge, and occurred 90 minutes after the initial wave arrival. No damage was observed in Humboldt Bay for either event. In Crescent City, currents for the first three and a half hours of the 2011 Japan tsunami were estimated using security camera video footage from the Harbor Master building across from the entrance to the small boat basin, approximately 70 meters away from the NOAA NOS tide gauge station. The largest amplitude tide gauge water-level oscillations and most of the damage occurred within this time window. The currents reached a velocity of approximately 4.5 m/s and six cycles exceeded 3 m/s during this period. Measured current velocities both in Humboldt Bay and in

  1. Ensemble modeling informs hypoxia management in the northern Gulf of Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scavia, Donald; Bertani, Isabella; Obenour, Daniel R; Turner, R Eugene; Forrest, David R; Katin, Alexey

    2017-08-15

    A large region of low-dissolved-oxygen bottom waters (hypoxia) forms nearly every summer in the northern Gulf of Mexico because of nutrient inputs from the Mississippi River Basin and water column stratification. Policymakers developed goals to reduce the area of hypoxic extent because of its ecological, economic, and commercial fisheries impacts. However, the goals remain elusive after 30 y of research and monitoring and 15 y of goal-setting and assessment because there has been little change in river nitrogen concentrations. An intergovernmental Task Force recently extended to 2035 the deadline for achieving the goal of a 5,000-km 2 5-y average hypoxic zone and set an interim load target of a 20% reduction of the spring nitrogen loading from the Mississippi River by 2025 as part of their adaptive management process. The Task Force has asked modelers to reassess the loading reduction required to achieve the 2035 goal and to determine the effect of the 20% interim load reduction. Here, we address both questions using a probabilistic ensemble of four substantially different hypoxia models. Our results indicate that, under typical weather conditions, a 59% reduction in Mississippi River nitrogen load is required to reduce hypoxic area to 5,000 km 2 The interim goal of a 20% load reduction is expected to produce an 18% reduction in hypoxic area over the long term. However, due to substantial interannual variability, a 25% load reduction is required before there is 95% certainty of observing any hypoxic area reduction between consecutive 5-y assessment periods.

  2. Composition of uppermost mantle beneath the Northern Fennoscandia - numerical modeling and petrological interpretation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Virshylo, Ivan; Kozlovskaya, Elena; Prodaivoda, George; Silvennoinen, Hanna

    2013-04-01

    Studying of the uppermost mantle beneath the northern Fennoscandia is based on the data of the POLENET/LAPNET passive seismic array. Firstly, arrivals of P-waves of teleseismic events were inverted into P-wave velocity model using non-linear tomography (Silvennoinen et al., in preparation). The second stage was numerical petrological interpretation of referred above velocity model. This study presents estimation of mineralogical composition of the uppermost mantle as a result of numerical modeling. There are many studies concerning calculation of seismic velocities for polymineral media under high pressure and temperature conditions (Afonso, Fernàndez, Ranalli, Griffin, & Connolly, 2008; Fullea et al., 2009; Hacker, 2004; Xu, Lithgow-Bertelloni, Stixrude, & Ritsema, 2008). The elastic properties under high pressure and temperature (PT) conditions were modelled using the expanded Hook's law - Duhamel-Neumann equation, which allows computation of thermoelastic strains. Furthermore, we used a matrix model with multi-component inclusions that has no any restrictions on shape, orientation or concentration of inclusions. Stochastic method of conditional moment with computation scheme of Mori-Tanaka (Prodaivoda, Khoroshun, Nazarenko, & Vyzhva, 2000) is applied instead of traditional Voigt-Reuss-Hill and Hashin-Shtrikman equations. We developed software for both forward and inverse problem calculation. Inverse algorithm uses methods of global non-linear optimization. We prefer a "model-based" approach for ill-posed problem, which means that the problem is solved using geological and geophysical constraints for each parameter of a priori and final models. Additionally, we are checking at least several different hypothesis explaining how it is possible to get the solution with good fit to the observed data. If the a priori model is close to the real medium, the nearest solution would be found by the inversion. Otherwise, the global optimization is searching inside the

  3. Overview of past, ongoing and future efforts of the integrated modeling of global change for Northern Eurasia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monier, Erwan; Kicklighter, David; Sokolov, Andrei; Zhuang, Qianlai; Melillo, Jerry; Reilly, John

    2016-04-01

    Northern Eurasia is both a major player in the global carbon budget (it includes roughly 70% of the Earth's boreal forest and more than two-thirds of the Earth's permafrost) and a region that has experienced dramatic climate change (increase in temperature, growing season length, floods and droughts) over the past century. Northern Eurasia has also undergone significant land-use change, both driven by human activity (including deforestation, expansion of agricultural lands and urbanization) and natural disturbances (such as wildfires and insect outbreaks). These large environmental and socioeconomic impacts have major implications for the carbon cycle in the region. Northern Eurasia is made up of a diverse set of ecosystems that range from tundra to forests, with significant areas of croplands and pastures as well as deserts, with major urban areas. As such, it represents a complex system with substantial challenges for the modeling community. In this presentation, we provide an overview of past, ongoing and possible future efforts of the integrated modeling of global change for Northern Eurasia. We review the variety of existing modeling approaches to investigate specific components of Earth system dynamics in the region. While there are a limited number of studies that try to integrate various aspects of the Earth system (through scale, teleconnections or processes), we point out that there are few systematic analyses of the various feedbacks within the Earth system (between components, regions or scale). As a result, there is a lack of knowledge of the relative importance of such feedbacks, and it is unclear how policy relevant current studies are that fail to account for these feedbacks. We review the role of Earth system models, and their advantages/limitations compared to detailed single component models. We further introduce the human activity system (global trade, economic models, demographic model and so on), the need for coupled human/earth system models

  4. Climate change between the mid and late Holocene in northern high latitudes – Part 2: Model-data comparisons

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Holmgren

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available The climate response over northern high latitudes to the mid-Holocene orbital forcing has been investigated in three types of PMIP (Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project simulations with different complexity of the modelled climate system. By first undertaking model-data comparison, an objective selection method has been applied to evaluate the capability of the climate models to reproduce the spatial response pattern seen in proxy data. The possible feedback mechanisms behind the climate response have been explored based on the selected model simulations. Subsequent model-model comparisons indicate the importance of including the different physical feedbacks in the climate models. The comparisons between the proxy-based reconstructions and the best fit selected simulations show that over the northern high latitudes, summer temperature change follows closely the insolation change and shows a common feature with strong warming over land and relatively weak warming over ocean at 6 ka compared to 0 ka. Furthermore, the sea-ice-albedo positive feedback enhances this response. The reconstructions of temperature show a stronger response to enhanced insolation in the annual mean temperature than winter and summer temperature. This is verified in the model simulations and the behaviour is attributed to the larger contribution from the large response in autumn. Despite a smaller insolation during winter at 6 ka, a pronounced warming centre is found over Barents Sea in winter in the simulations, which is also supported by the nearby northern Eurasian continental and Fennoscandian reconstructions. This indicates that in the Arctic region, the response of the ocean and the sea ice to the enhanced summer insolation is more important for the winter temperature than the synchronous decrease of the insolation.

  5. A stochastic model with a low-frequency amplification feedback for the stratospheric northern annular mode

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Yueyue; Cai, Ming; Ren, Rongcai

    2017-08-01

    We consider three indices to measure the polar stratospheric mass and stratospheric meridional mass circulation variability: anomalies of (1) total mass in the polar stratospheric cap (60-90°N, above the isentropic surface 400 K, PSM), (2) total adiabatic mass transport across 60°N into the polar stratosphere cap (AMT), (3) and total diabetic mass transport across 400 K from the polar stratosphere into the troposphere below (DMT). It is confirmed that the negative stratospheric Northern Annular Mode (NAM) and PSM indices have a nearly indistinguishable temporal evolution and a similar red-noise-like spectrum with a de-correlation timescale of 4 weeks. This enables us to examine the low-frequency nature of the NAM in the framework of mass circulation, namely, d/{dt}{PSM}={AMT} - {DMT} . The DMT index tends to be positively correlated with the PSM with a red-noise-like spectrum, representing slow radiative cooling processes giving rise to a de-correlation timescale of 3-4 weeks. The AMT is nearly perfectly correlated with the day-to-day tendency of PSM, reflecting a robust quasi 90° out-of-phase relation between the AMT and PSM at all frequency bands. Variations of vertically westward tilting of planetary waves contribute mainly to the high-frequency portion of AMT. It is the wave amplitude's slow vacillation that plays the leading role in the quasi 90° out-of-phase relation between the AMT and PSM. Based on this, we put forward a linear stochastic model with a low-frequency amplification feedback from low-frequency amplitude vacillations of planetary waves to explain the amplified low-frequency response of PSM/NAM to a stochastic forcing from the westward tilting variability.

  6. Measurement and modeling of wind waves at the northern coast of Santa Catarina, Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Henrique G. M. Alves

    2001-01-01

    Full Text Available Directional measurements of wind-wave spectra made during the year of 1996 are used in a preliminary investigation of the wind-wave climate and its transformation at the São Francisco do Sul island, northern coast of the Santa Catarina state. Four major sea states and associated meteorological conditions are identified through analyses of joint distributions of observed wave parameters. Transformations of these main sea-state patterns due to refraction and shoaling are investigated through a numerical modeling approach that allows the reconstruction of the wave field within extensive coastal areas, using single point measurements of the wave spectrum in shallow waters. Cross-validation of measured and reconstructed spectra at the study site yield consistent results, suggesting that the proposed methodology works well for the São Francisco do Sul coast.Medições do espectro direcional de ondas geradas pelo vento realizadas em 1996 são utilizadas em uma investigação preliminar do clima de ondas no litoral norte de Santa Catarina, Brasil. Quatro estados de mar predominantes são identificados, em conjunto com os padrões meteorológicos associados a sua ocorrência, através de análises estatísticas. As transformações desses quatro estados de mar devido a refraçâo e empinamento são investigadas através de modelos numéricos, que permitem obter estimativas do campo de ondas em áreas extensas a partir de medições pontuais feitas em águas rasas. Comparações entre espectros medidos e modelados produzem resultados consistentes, sugerindo que a metodologia proposta é válida para a costa de São Francisco do Sul.

  7. Spatiotemporal evolution of slow slip events in a nonplanar fault model for northern Cascadia subduction zone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Duo; Liu, Yajing

    2016-09-01

    Slow slip events (SSEs) are identified as the quasi-stable fault deformation in the deep transition zone from locked to continuous sliding in many subduction zones. In the well-instrumented Cascadia margin, a class of Mw6.0 slow slip events arise beneath Port Angeles every ˜14 months, as inferred from two decades of continuous geodetic monitoring. The along-strike bending of the incoming oceanic plate beneath north Washington is a unique geometric feature whose influence on slow slip processes is still unknown. Here we incorporate a realistic fault geometry of northern Cascadia in the framework of rate- and state-dependent friction law, to simulate the spatiotemporal evolution of slow slip events on a nonplanar subduction fault. The modeled SSEs capture the major characteristics revealed by GPS observations. The central 150 km long fault segment beneath Port Angeles acts as a repetitive slip patch, where SSEs appear every ˜1.5 years with a maximum slip of ˜2.5 cm. Two minor slip patches with smaller areas and cumulative slips straddle this central slip patch. The along-strike segmentation of slow slip is inversely related to the local fault dip and strike angles of the slow slip zone, suggesting strong geometrical control on the slow slip process. This correlation holds even after removing the effect of W/h∗, ratio between velocity-weakening SSE fault width and characteristic nucleation size. Besides the GPS-detectable fast-spreading phase, we find that each SSE cycle consists of deep pre-SSE preparation and post-SSE relaxation phases, which may be the driving mechanism for the deep tremor activity between major SSE episodes discovered in Cascadia.

  8. Simulation by a mathematical model of the groundwater flow between the Alps and the Black Forest; Part A: regional model; Part B: local model (Northern Switzerland)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kimmeier, F.; Perrochet, P.; Kiraly, L.

    1985-01-01

    The purpose of this report is to present the development of two hydrogeologic models of the groundwater flow regime in the crystalline of northern Switzerland. These models are constructed at two scales. The regional model (23000 km 2 ) accounts for all recharge to and discharge from the crystalline within the model boundaries. The local model (900 km 2 ) allows for greater structural, stratigraphic and topographic complexity in a more restricted area including some of the areas of interest to CEDRA. The regional model provides the hydrologic boundary conditions for the local model. All steps followed in constructing and testing the models are presented. This includes defining the areal and vertical geometry of the principal aquifers and aquitards. In addition, the hydrogeologic properties of these layers are defined; including their permeability, homogeneity, anisotropy and continuity. Discontinuities (e.g. faults) are modeled as discrete features. Hydrologic boundary conditions are specified based on observed or inferred potentiometric or flow (infiltration/exfiltration) data. The developed conceptual models are tested with program FEM 301. The results of this application consist of heads at every noidal point and recharge/discharge rates at every constant head node. These results are utilized to define the general groundwater flow regimes in the crystalline. In addition, the results are compared to observed heads and discharges in an attempt to validate the conceptual models. Representative hydraulic gradients at potential areas of interest to CEDRA are presented. Sensitivity analyses have been conducted to define the groundwater flow systems response to uncertain parameters and boundary conditions

  9. A sensitivity study on modeling black carbon in snow and its radiative forcing over the Arctic and Northern China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Qian, Yun; Wang, Hailong; Rasch, Philip J; Zhang, Rudong; Flanner, Mark G

    2014-01-01

    Black carbon in snow (BCS) simulated in the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM5) is evaluated against measurements over Northern China and the Arctic, and its sensitivity to atmospheric deposition and two parameters that affect post-depositional enrichment is explored. Improvements in atmospheric BC transport and deposition significantly reduce the biases (by a factor of two) in the estimation of BCS concentration over both Northern China and the Arctic. Further sensitivity simulations using the improved CAM5 indicate that the melt-water scavenging efficiency (MSE) parameter plays an important role in regulating BC concentrations in the Arctic through the post-depositional enrichment, which not only drastically changes the amplitude but also shifts the seasonal cycle of the BCS concentration and its radiative forcing in the Arctic. The impact of the snow aging scaling factor (SAF) on BCS shows more complex latitudinal and seasonal dependence, and overall impact of SAF is much smaller than that of MSE. The improvements of BC transport and deposition in CAM5 have a stronger influence on BCS than perturbations of the two snow model parameters in Northern China. (letters)

  10. Using computer models to design gully erosion control structures for humid northern Ethiopia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Classic gully erosion control measures such as check dams have been unsuccessful in halting gully formation and growth in the humid northern Ethiopian highlands. Gullies are typically formed in vertisols and flow often bypasses the check dams as elevated groundwater tables make gully banks unstable....

  11. Molecular Indicators of Chronic Stress in a Model Pinniped - The Northern Elephant Seal

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-09-30

    Hassrick J, Robinson P, Simmons S, Costa D (2011). Long term foraging success impacts cortisol levels and natality in northern elephant seals. 19th...Sapolsky RM, Romero LM, Munck AU (2000). How do glucocorticoids influence stress responses? Integrating permissive, suppressive, stimulatory, and

  12. Modelling nutrient losses by wind and water erosion in northern Burkina Faso

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Visser, S.M.

    2004-01-01

    In the semi-arid environment of northern Burkina Faso the processes of wind and water erosion occur almost simultaneously and may cause severe soil degradation. Especially in the early rainy season when soils are bare and unprotected, violent winds preceding intense rainfall events result in intense

  13. Developing a Coffee Yield Prediction and Integrated Soil Fertility Management Recommendation Model for Northern Tanzania

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Maro, G.P.; Mrema, J.P.; Msanya, B.M.; Janssen, B.H.; Teri, J.M.

    2014-01-01

    The aim of this study was to develop a simple and quantitative system for coffee yield estimation and nutrient input advice, so as to address the problem of declining annual coffee production in Tanzania (particularly in its Northern coffee zone), which is related to declining soil fertility. The

  14. Modelling soil nutrient dynamics under alternative farm management practices in the Northern Highlands of Ethiopia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Abegaz Yimer, A.; Keulen, van H.

    2009-01-01

    Agricultural production in the Northern Highlands of Ethiopia is low, stagnant or unsustainable. The objectives of this study were to explore long-term dynamics of soil organic carbon (C), nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) and the consequences for crop-available N and P to support the design of

  15. Summary of Northern Europe as a role model : Successful enterprise in a globalising economy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Herman Blom; A.G.M. Hovens; F.J. de Graaf

    2014-01-01

    Does Northern Europe possess unique characteristics that cannot disappear and do not need to disappear, or will globalisation inevitably result in uniformity, divested businesses, lower wages and huge pressure on social security provisions? This is one of the main questions addressed by the

  16. Water balance model for a no release mining operation in the Northern Territory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burgess, P.J.

    1983-01-01

    The uranium mining region of the Northern Territory of Australia is characterised by extremes in rainfall. This must be considered in planning mining operations in the area. Plans must include provision of water during the dry season, control of water during the wet season, provision of access throughout all seasons and management of water to minimise environmental pollution

  17. Watershed modeling for fire management planning in the northern Rocky Mountains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donald F. Potts; David L. Peterson; Hans R. Zurring

    1985-01-01

    Water yield and sediment production almost always increase after wildfire has destroyed vegetative cover. The value of water generally is not as much appreciated in the water-rich northern Rocky Mountains as it is elsewhere. Increased water yield becomes economically beneficial, however, when its potential for consumptive and nonconsumptive uses is realized. Whether...

  18. THE MODEL OF MOTOR ACTIVITY OPTIMIZATION OF YOUNGER SCHOOL AGE CHILDREN LIVING IN THE CONDITIONS OF THE NORTHERN CITY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhanna Ildarovna Busheva

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Extreme conditions of the North, computerization, Internet and a gadget dependence, high physical and intellectual loads of children activities living in the north negatively affect younger generation health state. It is difficult to overestimate a role of motor activity in expansion of functionality of the developing organism as the lack of locomotion can lead to pathological shifts in an organism. Based on the study of the concept of a ‘motor activity’ and features North of the city the article suggests a model of motor activity optimization of younger school age children living in the conditions of the northern city. It consisted of 6 units related to goal-setting, diagnostic-analytical, concept, process-activity, reflexive-evaluative and effective. The research was conducted on the basis of Surgut city schools and the Surgut region of Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Region-Yugra. During the research we revealed the most priority organization forms of motor activity of younger school age children living in conditions of the northern city. The model of motor activity optimization of younger school age children allows to create necessary optimum volume and to control of motor activity of children of younger school age. Purpose. The purpose of our research was to create model of motor activity optimization of younger school age children living in the conditions of the northern city. Methodology. Analysis and synthesis of the materials as well as the method of simulation are used as the main instruments. Results. A model of motor activity optimization of younger school age children has been elaborated in the course of study and its characteristics have been specified. Practical implications. The results can be of use for teachers at professional educational institutions.

  19. Spring flood pH decline in northern Sweden: Towards an operational model separating natural acidity from anthropogenic acidification

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Laudon, H.

    1999-10-01

    The spring flood is a defining feature of the ecosystem in northern Sweden. In this region, spring flood is an occasion for dramatic hydrochemical changes that profoundly effect the biodiversity of the aquatic ecosystem. Spring flood is also the period most susceptible to anthropogenic acidification. A belief in the anthropogenic component to pH decline during spring flood has been an important factor in spending over half a billion crowns to lime surface waters in Northern Sweden during the last decade. The natural component of episodic pH decline during spring flood, however, has received less attention. The main objective of this work is to present an operational model for separating and quantifying the anthropogenic and natural contributions of episodic acidification during high flow events in Northern Sweden. The key assumptions in this model are that baseflow ANC has not been affected by anthropogenic acidification, that DOC has not changed due to modern land-use practice and that natural dilution during hydrological episodes can be quantified. The limited data requirements of 10-15 stream water samples before and during spring flood make the model suitable for widespread use in environmental monitoring programs. This makes it possible to distinguish trends of human impact as well as natural pH decline in space and time. Modeling results from northern Sweden demonstrate that the natural driving mechanisms of dilution and organic acidity were the dominant factors in the episodic acidification of spring flood in the region. The anthropogenic contribution to spring pH decline was similar in size to the natural contribution in only two of the more than 30 events where this model was applied. Natural factors alone were found to cause pH values below 4.5 in some streams. Anthropogenic sources of acidity can be superimposed on this natural dynamics. In the sites studied, the magnitude of the anthropogenic ANC decline was correlated to the winter deposition of

  20. Modelling study of boundary-layer ozone over northern China - Part II: Responses to emission reductions during the Beijing Olympics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Guiqian; Zhu, Xiaowan; Xin, Jinyuan; Hu, Bo; Song, Tao; Sun, Yang; Wang, Lili; Wu, Fangkun; Sun, Jie; Cheng, Mengtian; Chao, Na; Li, Xin; Wang, Yuesi

    2017-09-01

    The implementation of emission reduction measures during the Olympics provided a valuable opportunity to study regional photochemical pollution over northern China. In this study, the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University/National Centre for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model and Community Multiscale Air Quality model system was applied to conduct two sets of modelling analyses of the period from July 20 to September 20, 2008, to illustrate the influences of emission reduction measures on regional photochemical pollution over northern China during the Beijing Olympics. The results indicated that the implementation of emission control measures decreased the concentrations of ozone (O3) precursors, namely nitrogen oxide (NOx) and volatile organic compounds (VOCs), throughout the boundary layer. The concentrations of these compounds were reduced by 45% in the central urban area of Beijing at the ground level. Although the average O3 concentration in the central urban area increased by more than 8 ppbv, the total oxidant concentration decreased significantly by more than 5 ppbv. Greater O3 concentrations mainly occurred during periods with weak photochemical reactions. During periods of strong photochemical production, the O3 concentration decreased significantly due to a weakening vertical circulation between the lower and upper boundary layer. Consequently, the number of days when the O3 concentration exceeded 100 ppbv decreased by 25% in Beijing. The emission control measures altered the sensitivity of the regional O3 production. The coordinated control region of NOx and VOCs expanded, and the control region of VOCs decreased in size. The reduction of non-point-source emissions, such as fugitive VOCs and vehicles, was more useful for controlling regional photochemical pollution over northern China.

  1. Petroleum potential of the northern Sinu-San Jacinto Basin, Colombia: an integrated petroleum system and basin modeling approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nino, Christian H.; Goncalves, Felix T.T.; Bedregal, Ricardo P. [Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ), RJ (Brazil). Coordenacao dos Programas de Pos-graduacao de Engenharia (COPPE). Lab. de Modelagem de Bacias (LAB2M); Azevedo, Debora A. [Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ), RJ (Brazil). Inst. de Quimica; Landau, Luis [Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ), RJ (Brazil). Coordenacao dos Programas de Pos-graduacao de Engenharia (COPPE). Lab. de Metodos Computacionais em Engenharia (LAMCE)

    2004-07-01

    The northern Sinu-San Jacinto basin, located in the northwestern corner of South America (Colombia), belongs to the accretionary prism that resulted from the collision and subduction of the Caribbean plate under the South America plate. Despite all the previous exploratory efforts, solely a few small sub-commercial oil and gas accumulation have been found up to now. The geological and geochemical information acquired by different companies during the lasts decades was integrated with new geochemical analysis and basin modeling to characterize the petroleum systems, to reconstruct the hydrocarbon charge history in the study area and to better assess the exploratory risk. (author)

  2. Performance assessment and parameterization of the SWAP-WOFOST model for peat soil under agricultural use in northern Europe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertram, Sascha; Bechtold, Michel; Hendriks, Rob; Piayda, Arndt; Regina, Kristiina; Myllys, Merja; Tiemeyer, Bärbel

    2017-04-01

    Peat soils form a major share of soil suitable for agriculture in northern Europe. Successful agricultural production depends on hydrological and pedological conditions, local climate and agricultural management. Climate change impact assessment on food production and development of mitigation and adaptation strategies require reliable yield forecasts under given emission scenarios. Coupled soil hydrology - crop growth models, driven by regionalized future climate scenarios are a valuable tool and widely used for this purpose. Parameterization on local peat soil conditions and crop breed or grassland specie performance, however, remains a major challenge. The subject of this study is to evaluate the performance and sensitivity of the SWAP-WOFOST coupled soil hydrology and plant growth model with respect to the application on peat soils under different regional conditions across northern Europe. Further, the parameterization of region-specific crop and grass species is discussed. First results of the model application and parameterization at deep peat sites in southern Finland are presented. The model performed very well in reproducing two years of observed, daily ground water level data on four hydrologically contrasting sites. Naturally dry and wet sites could be modelled with the same performance as sites with active water table management by regulated drains in order to improve peat conservation. A simultaneous multi-site calibration scheme was used to estimate plant growth parameters of the local oat breed. Cross-site validation of the modelled yields against two years of observations proved the robustness of the chosen parameter set and gave no indication of possible overparameterization. This study proves the suitability of the coupled SWAP-WOFOST model for the prediction of crop yields and water table dynamics of peat soils in agricultural use under given climate conditions.

  3. The initial dispersal and radiative forcing of a Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude super volcano: a model study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Timmreck

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available The chemistry climate model MAECHAM4/ CHEM with interactive and prognostic volcanic aerosol and ozone was used to study the initial dispersal and radiative forcing of a possible Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude super eruption. Tropospheric climate anomalies are not analysed since sea surface temperatures are kept fixed. Our experiments show that the global dispersal of a super eruption located at Yellowstone, Wy. is strongly dependent on the season of the eruption. In Northern Hemisphere summer the volcanic cloud is transported westward and preferentially southward, while in Northern Hemisphere winter the cloud is transported eastward and more northward compared to the summer case. Aerosol induced heating leads to a more global spreading with a pronounced cross equatorial transport. For a summer eruption aerosol is transported much further to the Southern Hemisphere than for a winter eruption. In contrast to Pinatubo case studies, strong cooling tendencies appear with maximum peak values of less than −1.6 K/day three months after the eruption in the upper tropical stratosphere. This strong cooling effect weakens with decreasing aerosol density over time and initially prevents the aerosol laden air from further active rising. All-sky net radiative flux changes of less than −32 W/m2 at the surface are about a factor of 6 larger than for the Pinatubo eruption. Large positive flux anomalies of more than 16 W/m2 are found in the first months in the tropics and sub tropics. These strong forcings call for a fully coupled ocean/atmosphere/chemistry model to study climate sensitivity to such a super-eruption.

  4. Terrestrial ecosystem model performance in simulating productivity and its vulnerability to climate change in the northern permafrost region

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Xia, Jianyang; McGuire, A. David; Lawrence, David

    2017-01-01

    and the maximum rate of carboxylation by the enzyme Rubisco at 25°C (Vcmax_25), respectively. The models also varied in their sensitivities of NPP, GPP, and CUE to historical changes in climate and atmospheric CO2 concentration. These results indicate that model predictive ability of the C cycle in permafrost...... productivity (NPP) and responses to historical climate change in permafrost regions in the Northern Hemisphere. In comparison with the satellite estimate from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS; 246 ± 6 g C m−2 yr−1), most models produced higher NPP (309 ± 12 g C m−2 yr−1) over...... regions can be improved by better representation of the processes controlling CUE and GPPmax as well as their sensitivity to climate change....

  5. Dynamic modeling of organophosphate pesticide load in surface water in the northern San Joaquin Valley watershed of California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Y.; Zhang, X.; Liu, X.; Ficklin, D. L.; Zhang, M.

    2008-12-01

    The hydrology, sediment, and pesticide transport components of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) were evaluated on the northern San Joaquin Valley watershed of California. The Nash Sutcliffe coefficients for monthly stream flow and sediment load ranged from 0.49 to 0.99 over the watershed during the study period of 1992 to 2005. The calibrated SWAT model was applied to simulate fate and transport processes of two organophosphate pesticides of diazinon and chlorpyrifos at watershed scale. The model generated satisfactory predictions of dissolved pesticide loads relative to the monitoring data. The model also showed great success in capturing spatial patterns of dissolved diazinon and chlorpyrifos loads according to the soil properties and landscape morphology over the large agricultural watershed. This study indicated that curve number was the major factor influencing the hydrology while pesticide fate and transport were mainly affected by surface runoff and pesticide application timing in the study area.

  6. Modeling the Crust and Upper Mantle in Northern Beata Ridge (CARIBE NORTE Project)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Núñez, Diana; Córdoba, Diego; Cotilla, Mario Octavio; Pazos, Antonio

    2016-05-01

    The complex tectonic region of NE Caribbean, where Hispaniola and Puerto Rico are located, is bordered by subduction zone with oblique convergence in the north and by incipient subduction zone associated to Muertos Trough in the south. Central Caribbean basin is characterized by the presence of a prominent topographic structure known as Beata Ridge, whose oceanic crustal thickness is unusual. The northern part of Beata Ridge is colliding with the central part of Hispaniola along a transverse NE alignment, which constitutes a morphostructural limit, thus producing the interruption of the Cibao Valley and the divergence of the rivers and basins in opposite directions. The direction of this alignment coincides with the discontinuity that could explain the extreme difference between west and east seismicity of the island. Different studies have provided information about Beata Ridge, mainly about the shallow structure from MCS data. In this work, CARIBE NORTE (2009) wide-angle seismic data are analyzed along a WNW-ESE trending line in the northern flank of Beata Ridge, providing a complete tectonic view about shallow, middle and deep structures. The results show clear tectonic differences between west and east separated by Beata Island. In the Haiti Basin area, sedimentary cover is strongly influenced by the bathymetry and its thickness decreases toward to the island. In this area, the Upper Mantle reaches 20 km deep increasing up to 24 km below the island where the sedimentary cover disappears. To the east, the three seamounts of Beata Ridge provoke the appearance of a structure completely different where sedimentary cover reaches thicknesses of 4 km between seamounts and Moho rises up to 13 km deep. This study has allowed to determine the Moho topography and to characterize seismically the first upper mantle layers along the northern Beata Ridge, which had not been possible with previous MCS data.

  7. Rumination in posttraumatic stress and growth after a natural disaster: a model from northern Chile 2014 earthquakes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leal-Soto, Francisco; Carmona-Halty, Marcos; Ferrer-Urbina, Rodrigo

    2016-01-01

    Traumatic experiences, such as natural disasters, produce multiple and serious impacts on people. Despite the traditional focus on negative consequences, in many cases there are also positive consequences, such as posttraumatic growth. Tedeschi and Calhoun proposed a model of posttraumatic growth that emphasizes the role of rumination after the basic beliefs breakdown due to the occurrence of a traumatic experience. A total of 238 volunteers affected by two major earthquakes and tsunami alerts in northern Chile on April 1 and 2, 2014, responded to an online survey measuring subjective severity, basic beliefs change, social share of emotion, rumination, posttraumatic stress, and posttraumatic growth. Path analyses reveal that posttraumatic stress goes through a negative change in basic beliefs, intrusive rumination, and deliberated rumination, meanwhile posttraumatic growth is only achieved directly from a positive change in basic beliefs and deliberated rumination. The model is consistent with the empirical model obtained in Chilean people affected by the earthquake and tsunami that occurred on 27 February, 2010, but it is slightly different and in a form that is more consistent with Tedeschi and Calhoun's theoretical model. Both models remark on the role of deliberated rumination in posttraumatic growth and failure to progress from intrusive to deliberated rumination in posttraumatic stress, but the proposed one is more parsimonious and assumes subjective severity as an antecedent to basic belief changes. These conclusions must be considered in light of limitations that a cross-sectional design and the correlational nature of the statistical analysis carried out impose. Role of subjective severity, change of basic beliefs, social sharing of emotion, and rumination on posttraumatic stress and growth were modeled from responses of people affected by the April 1-2, 2014, northern Chilean earthquakes. Posttraumatic stress goes through negative changes in basic beliefs

  8. Dispersion of sulphur in the northern hemisphere. A study with a 3-dimensional time-resolved model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tarrason, L.

    1995-12-31

    This thesis on atmospheric dispersion of sulphur presents a calculation of intercontinental transport of oxidized sulphur and allocates different contributions to sulphur background levels over Europe. It is found that a significant fraction of anthropogenic sulphur (AS) is transported out of continental boundaries thus affecting the background levels over major parts of the northern hemisphere. Over Europe, the contribution of AS from North America is similar in amount to that of Asian AS and natural sources from the North Atlantic Ocean. Although the yearly contribution of intercontinental transport to deposition of sulphur over Europe is quite small, it can be much more important over certain areas and seasons and is comparable to the contributions from individual European countries. The calculations are based on a three-dimensional Eulerian time-resolved model that describes sulphur dispersion in the atmosphere in connection with large-scale synoptic flows and agree well with observations. The thesis emphasizes the role of synoptic scale atmospheric motions in determining intercontinental transport of sulphur. It indicates the need to resolve individual cyclones and anticyclones in order to describe the dispersion and distribution of atmospheric sulphur in the northern hemisphere and stresses the value of comparing model calculations with observations, both in atmospheric chemistry studies and in climate applications. 260 refs., 50 figs., 17 tabs.

  9. Storm-driven delivery of sediment to the continental slope: Numerical modeling for the northern Gulf of Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harris, C. K.; Kniskern, T. A.; Arango, H.

    2016-02-01

    The supply of sediment from the continental shelf to deeper waters is of critical importance for building continental margin repositories of sediment, and may also factor into episodic events on the continental slope such as turbidity currents and slope failures. While numerical sediment transport models have been developed for coastal and continental shelf areas, they have not often been used to infer sediment delivery to deeper waters. A three-dimensional coupled hydrodynamic - suspended sediment transport model for the northern Gulf of Mexico has been developed and run to evaluate the types of conditions that are associated with delivery of suspended sediment to the continental slope. Accounting for sediment delivery by riverine plumes and for sediment resuspension by energetic waves and currents, the sediment transport calculations were implemented within the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS). The model domain represents the northern Gulf of Mexico shelf and slope including the Mississippi birdfoot delta and the Mississippi and DeSoto Canyons. To investigate the role of storms in driving down-slope sediment fluxes, model runs that encompassed fall, 2007 through late summer, 2008 the summer and fall of 2008 were analyzed. This time period included several winter storms, and the passage of two hurricanes (Ike and Gustav) over the study area. Preliminary results indicated that sediment delivery to the continental slope was triggered by the passage of these storm events, and focused at certain locations, such as submarine canyons. Additionally, a climatological analysis indicates that storm track influences both the wind-driven currents and wave energy on the shelf, and as such plays an important role in determining which storms trigger delivery of suspended continental shelf sediment to the adjacent slope.

  10. Modelling Ecosystem Dynamics of the Oxygen Minimum Zones in the Angola Gyre and the Northern Benguela Upwelling System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmidt, M.; Eggert, A.

    2016-02-01

    The Angola Gyre and the Northern Benguela Upwelling System are two major oxygen minimum zones (OMZ) of different kind connected by the system of African Eastern Boundary Currents. We discuss results from a 3-dimensional coupled biogeochemical model covering both oxygen-deficient systems. The biogeochemical model component comprises trophic levels up to zooplankton. Physiological properties of organisms are parameterized from field data gained mainly in the course of the project "Geochemistry and Ecology of the Namibian Upwelling System" (GENUS). The challenge of the modelling effort is the different nature of both systems. The Angola Gyre, located in a "shadow zone" of the tropical Atlantic, has a low productivity and little ventilation, hence a long residence time of water masses. In the northern Benguela Upwelling System, trade winds drive an intermittent, but permanent nutrient supply into the euphotic zone which fuels a high coastal productivity, large particle export and high oxygen consumption from dissimilatory processes. In addition to the local processes, oxygen-deficient water formed in the Angola Gyre is one of the source water masses of the poleward undercurrent, which feeds oxygen depleted water into the Benguela system. In order to simulate the oxygen distribution in the Benguela system, both physical transport as well as local biological processes need to be carefully adjusted in the model. The focus of the analysis is on the time scale and the relative contribution of the different oxygen related processes to the oxygen budgets in both the oxygen minimum zones. Although these are very different in both the OMZ, the model is found as suitable to produce oxygen minimum zones comparable with observations in the Benguela and the Angola Gyre as well. Variability of the oxygen concentration in the Angola Gyre depends strongly on organismic oxygen consumption, whereas the variability of the oxygen concentration on the Namibian shelf is governed mostly by

  11. Landslide early warning based on failure forecast models: the example of Mt. de La Saxe rockslide, northern Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manconi, A.; Giordan, D.

    2015-02-01

    We investigate the use of landslide failure forecast models by exploiting near-real-time monitoring data. Starting from the inverse velocity theory, we analyze landslide surface displacements on different temporal windows, and apply straightforward statistical methods to obtain confidence intervals on the estimated time of failure. Here we describe the main concepts of our method, and show an example of application to a real emergency scenario, the La Saxe rockslide, Aosta Valley region, northern Italy. Based on the herein presented case study, we identify operational thresholds based on the reliability of the forecast models, in order to support the management of early warning systems in the most critical phases of the landslide emergency.

  12. Comparison between different approaches to modeling shallow landslide susceptibility: a case history in Oltrepo Pavese, Northern Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zizioli, D.; Meisina, C.; Valentino, R.; Montrasio, L.

    2013-03-01

    On the 27 and 28 April 2009, the area of Oltrepo Pavese in northern Italy was affected by a very intense rainfall event that caused a great number of shallow landslides. These instabilities occurred on slopes covered by vineyards or recently formed woodlands and caused damage to many roads and one human loss. Based on aerial photographs taken immediately after the event and field surveys, more than 1600 landslides were detected. After acquiring topographical data, geotechnical properties of the soils and land use, susceptibility analysis on a territorial scale was carried out. In particular, different physically based models were applied to two contiguous sites with the same geological context but different typologies and sizes of shallow landslides. This paper presents the comparison between the ex-post results obtained from the different approaches. On the basis of the observed landslide localizations, the accuracy of the different models was evaluated, and the significant results are highlighted.

  13. Soil Erosion Prediction Using Morgan-Morgan-Finney Model in a GIS Environment in Northern Ethiopia Catchment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gebreyesus Brhane Tesfahunegn

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Even though scientific information on spatial distribution of hydrophysical parameters is critical for understanding erosion processes and designing suitable technologies, little is known in Geographical Information System (GIS application in developing spatial hydrophysical data inputs and their application in Morgan-Morgan-Finney (MMF erosion model. This study was aimed to derive spatial distribution of hydrophysical parameters and apply them in the Morgan-Morgan-Finney (MMF model for estimating soil erosion in the Mai-Negus catchment, northern Ethiopia. Major data input for the model include climate, topography, land use, and soil data. This study demonstrated using MMF model that the rate of soil detachment varied from 170 t ha−1 y−1, whereas the soil transport capacity of overland flow (TC ranged from 5 t ha−1 y−1 to >42 t ha−1 y−1. The average soil loss estimated by TC using MMF model at catchment level was 26 t ha−1 y−1. In most parts of the catchment (>80%, the model predicted soil loss rates higher than the maximum tolerable rate (18 t ha−1 y−1 estimated for Ethiopia. Hence, introducing appropriate interventions based on the erosion severity predicted by MMF model in the catchment is crucial for sustainable natural resources management.

  14. A glacial isostatic adjustment model for the central and northern Laurentide ice sheet based on relative sea level and GPS measurements

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Simon, K.M.; James, T. S.; Henton, J. A.; Dyke, A. S.

    2016-01-01

    The thickness and equivalent global sea level contribution of an improved model of the central and northern Laurentide Ice Sheet is constrained by 24 relative sea level histories and 18 present-day GPS-measured vertical land motion rates. The final model, termed Laur16, is derived from the ICE-5G

  15. Modeling strategies to increase population immunity and prevent poliovirus transmission in 2 high-risk areas in northern India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalkowska, Dominika A; Duintjer Tebbens, Radboud J; Thompson, Kimberly M

    2014-11-01

    India presented many challenges to the global effort to eliminate the transmission of wild polioviruses (WPVs) and poliomyelitis, with the last case of WPV type 2 in the world reported in northern India in 1999 and WPV types 1 and 3 circulating until early 2011. We used a differential equation-based model to characterize the dynamics of poliovirus transmission and various opportunities to increase and maintain high population immunity to poliovirus transmission for 2 high-risk areas in northern India. We explored options that India probably considered before 2011, to demonstrate the impact of strategies to accelerate WPV elimination and sustain high population immunity. We also characterized the impact of current and potential future vaccination strategies and explored the potential trade-offs associated with the various strategies. National immunization policy choices impact population immunity, which leads to different numbers of expected paralytic cases and risks of circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus outbreaks. Assuming that India maintains high vaccination intensity everywhere, we do not anticipate issues with outbreaks of circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus type 2 infection following globally coordinated cessation of type 2-containting oral poliovirus vaccine use. We find a relatively modest potential role for inactivated poliovirus vaccine. National policy makers should consider the impacts of their vaccine choices on population immunity to poliovirus transmission. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  16. Uncertainties in modelling CH4 emissions from northern wetlands in glacial climates: the role of vegetation parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. van Huissteden

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS 3 interstadials are marked by a sharp increase in the atmospheric methane (CH4 concentration, as recorded in ice cores. Wetlands are assumed to be the major source of this CH4, although several other hypotheses have been advanced. Modelling of CH4 emissions is crucial to quantify CH4 sources for past climates. Vegetation effects are generally highly generalized in modelling past and present-day CH4 fluxes, but should not be neglected. Plants strongly affect the soil-atmosphere exchange of CH4 and the net primary production of the vegetation supplies organic matter as substrate for methanogens. For modelling past CH4 fluxes from northern wetlands, assumptions on vegetation are highly relevant since paleobotanical data indicate large differences in Last Glacial (LG wetland vegetation composition as compared to modern wetland vegetation. Besides more cold-adapted vegetation, Sphagnum mosses appear to be much less dominant during large parts of the LG than at present, which particularly affects CH4 oxidation and transport. To evaluate the effect of vegetation parameters, we used the PEATLAND-VU wetland CO2/CH4 model to simulate emissions from wetlands in continental Europe during LG and modern climates. We tested the effect of parameters influencing oxidation during plant transport (fox, vegetation net primary production (NPP, parameter symbol Pmax, plant transport rate (Vtransp, maximum rooting depth (Zroot and root exudation rate (fex. Our model results show that modelled CH4 fluxes are sensitive to fox and Zroot in particular. The effects of Pmax, Vtransp and fex are of lesser relevance. Interactions with water table modelling are significant for Vtransp. We conducted experiments with different wetland vegetation types for Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS 3 stadial and interstadial climates and the present-day climate, by coupling PEATLAND-VU to high resolution climate model simulations for Europe. Experiments assuming

  17. Application of a new hydraulic conductivity model to simulate rapid groundwater fluctuations in the Eel River watershed in Northern California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vrettas, M. D.; Fung, I. Y.

    2015-12-01

    High-frequency multi-year observations of the water table at several wells in the Angelo Coast Range Reserve in the Eel River Watershed in northern California show rapid fluctuations, where the water table, some 10-15 meters below the surface, rises by as much as 1 meter in a day or two after the first storms of the rain season. The observations highlight preferential flow through weathered bedrock, which can store as much as 30% of the moisture in the column ("rock moisture"). This rapid transfer of moisture and storage at depth could have a significant impact on ecosystem dynamics and the water and energy budgets of the atmosphere on various time scales. Despite its high importance, preferential flow through weather bedrock is not routinely captured in most climate models. This work presents a new hydraulic conductivity parameterization that captures the preferential flow, with straightforward implementation into current global climate models. The hydraulic conductivity is represented as a product of the effective saturation (normalized water content) and a background hydraulic conductivity Kbkg, drawn from a depth dependent lognormal distribution. A unique feature of the parameterization is that the variance of hydraulic conductivity is large when there is little rock moisture, and decreases with increasing saturation, mimicking flow through fractures. The new method is applied to seven wells locations on a steep (35 degrees) hill-slope in the Eel River watershed in Northern California, for the duration of six years and estimates of the model parameters are provided by assimilating, into Richards' equation, measurements of precipitation [mm] and water table depths [m] at 30-minute time intervals. The simulation results show that the new approach yields a good agreement of the rapid rise of the observed water table at the tested well locations. Furthermore, the water stored in the weathered bedrock is estimated to be in the range between 32% and 41%, which could

  18. Deriving habitat models for northern long-eared bats from historical detection data: A case study using the Fernow Experimental Forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ford, W. Mark; Silvis, Alexander; Rodrigue, Jane L.; Kniowski, Andrew B.; Johnson, Joshua B.

    2016-01-01

    The listing of the northern long-eared bat (Myotis septentrionalis) as federally threatened under the Endangered Species Act following severe population declines from white-nose syndrome presents considerable challenges to natural resource managers. Because the northern long-eared bat is a forest habitat generalist, development of effective conservation measures will depend on appropriate understanding of its habitat relationships at individual locations. However, severely reduced population sizes make gathering data for such models difficult. As a result, historical data may be essential in development of habitat models. To date, there has been little evaluation of how effective historical bat presence data, such as data derived from mist-net captures, acoustic detection, and day-roost locations, may be in developing habitat models, nor is it clear how models created using different data sources may differ. We explored this issue by creating presence probability models for the northern long-eared bat on the Fernow Experimental Forest in the central Appalachian Mountains of West Virginia using a historical, presence-only data set. Each presence data type produced outputs that were dissimilar but that still corresponded with known traits of the northern long-eared bat or are easily explained in the context of the particular data collection protocol. However, our results also highlight potential limitations of individual data types. For example, models from mist-net capture data only showed high probability of presence along the dendritic network of riparian areas, an obvious artifact of sampling methodology. Development of ecological niche and presence models for northern long-eared bat populations could be highly valuable for resource managers going forward with this species. We caution, however, that efforts to create such models should consider the substantial limitations of models derived from historical data, and address model assumptions.

  19. An Evaluation of the CHIMERE Chemistry Transport Model to Simulate Dust Outbreaks across the Northern Hemisphere in March 2014

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bertrand Bessagnet

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Mineral dust is one of the most important aerosols over the world, affecting health and climate. These mineral particles are mainly emitted over arid areas but may be long-range transported, impacting the local budget of air quality in urban areas. While models were extensively used to study a single specific event, or make a global analysis at coarse resolution, the goal of our study is to simultaneously focus on several affected areas—Europe, North America, Central Asia, east China and the Caribbean area—for a one-month period, March 2014, avoiding any parameter fitting to better simulate a single dust outbreak. The simulation is performed for the first time with the hemispheric version of the CHIMERE model, with a high horizontal resolution (about 10 km. In this study, an overview of several simultaneous dust outbreaks over the Northern Hemisphere is proposed to assess the capability of such modeling tools to predict dust pollution events. A quantitative and qualitative evaluation of the most striking episodes is presented with comparisons to satellite data, ground based particulate matter and calcium measurements. Despite some overestimation of dust concentrations far from emission source areas, the model can simulate the timing of the arrival of dust outbreaks on observational sites. For instance, several spectacular dust storms in the US and China are rather well captured by the models. The high resolution provides a better description and understanding of the orographic effects and the long-range transport of dust plumes.

  20. [Application of the China-PAR risk prediction model for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease in a rural northern Chinese population].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, X; Zhang, D D; He, L; Cao, Y; Wang, J W; Li, N; Huang, S P; Dou, H D; Gao, P; Hu, Y H

    2017-06-18

    To validate five-year risk prediction models for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) in a contemporary rural Northern Chinese population. Totally 6 489 rural adults aged 40 to 79 years without clinical ASCVD were enrolled at baseline between June and August 2010, and followed up through January 2017. Expected prediction risk using the China-PAR (prediction for ASCVD risk in China) model was compared with the pooled cohort equations (PCE) reported in the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association guideline. Kaplan-Meier analysis was used to obtain the observed ASCVD event (including nonfatal myocardial infarction, coronary heart disease death, nonfatal or fatal stroke) rate at 5 years, and the expected-observed ratios were calculated to eva-luate overestimation or underestimation in the cohort. The participants in the cohort were divided into 4 categories (China-PAR model overestimated ASCVD events by 22.2% in men and 33.1% in women, while the overestimations were much higher for recalibrated PCE as 67.3% in men and 53.1% in women. Gender-specific China-PAR model had C statistics of 0.696 (95%CI, 0.669-0.723) for men and 0.709 (95%CI, 0.690-0.728) for women, which were similar to those of 0.702 (95%CI, 0.675-0.730) for men and 0.714 (95%CI, 0.695-0.733) for women in the PCE. Calibration χ 2 values in China-PAR were 17.2 and 54.2 for men and women, respectively; however, the PCE showed poorer ca-libration (χ 2 =192.0 for men and χ 2 =181.2 for women). In addition, the calibration charts and plots illustrated good agreement between the observations and the predictions only in the China-PAR model, especially for men. In this validation cohort of rural Northern Chinese adults, the China-PAR model had better performance of five-year ASCVD risk prediction than the PCE, indicating that recalibrated China-PAR model might be an appropriate tool for risk assessment and primary prevention of ASCVD in China.

  1. A Poisson regression approach to model monthly hail occurrence in Northern Switzerland using large-scale environmental variables

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madonna, Erica; Ginsbourger, David; Martius, Olivia

    2018-05-01

    In Switzerland, hail regularly causes substantial damage to agriculture, cars and infrastructure, however, little is known about its long-term variability. To study the variability, the monthly number of days with hail in northern Switzerland is modeled in a regression framework using large-scale predictors derived from ERA-Interim reanalysis. The model is developed and verified using radar-based hail observations for the extended summer season (April-September) in the period 2002-2014. The seasonality of hail is explicitly modeled with a categorical predictor (month) and monthly anomalies of several large-scale predictors are used to capture the year-to-year variability. Several regression models are applied and their performance tested with respect to standard scores and cross-validation. The chosen model includes four predictors: the monthly anomaly of the two meter temperature, the monthly anomaly of the logarithm of the convective available potential energy (CAPE), the monthly anomaly of the wind shear and the month. This model well captures the intra-annual variability and slightly underestimates its inter-annual variability. The regression model is applied to the reanalysis data back in time to 1980. The resulting hail day time series shows an increase of the number of hail days per month, which is (in the model) related to an increase in temperature and CAPE. The trend corresponds to approximately 0.5 days per month per decade. The results of the regression model have been compared to two independent data sets. All data sets agree on the sign of the trend, but the trend is weaker in the other data sets.

  2. Terrestrial ecosystem model performance in simulating productivity and its vulnerability to climate change in the northern permafrost region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xia, Jianyang; McGuire, A. David; Lawrence, David; Burke, Eleanor J.; Chen, Guangsheng; Chen, Xiaodong; Delire, Christine; Koven, Charles; MacDougall, Andrew; Peng, Shushi; Rinke, Annette; Saito, Kazuyuki; Zhang, Wenxin; Alkama, Ramdane; Bohn, Theodore J.; Ciais, Philippe; Decharme, Bertrand; Gouttevin, Isabelle; Hajima, Tomohiro; Hayes, Daniel J.; Huang, Kun; Ji, Duoying; Krinner, Gerhard; Lettenmaier, Dennis P.; Miller, Paul A.; Moore, John C.; Smith, Benjamin; Sueyoshi, Tetsuo; Shi, Zheng; Yan, Liming; Liang, Junyi; Jiang, Lifen; Zhang, Qian; Luo, Yiqi

    2017-01-01

    Realistic projection of future climate-carbon (C) cycle feedbacks requires better understanding and an improved representation of the C cycle in permafrost regions in the current generation of Earth system models. Here we evaluated 10 terrestrial ecosystem models for their estimates of net primary productivity (NPP) and responses to historical climate change in permafrost regions in the Northern Hemisphere. In comparison with the satellite estimate from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS; 246 ± 6 g C m−2 yr−1), most models produced higher NPP (309 ± 12 g C m−2 yr−1) over the permafrost region during 2000–2009. By comparing the simulated gross primary productivity (GPP) with a flux tower-based database, we found that although mean GPP among the models was only overestimated by 10% over 1982–2009, there was a twofold discrepancy among models (380 to 800 g C m−2 yr−1), which mainly resulted from differences in simulated maximum monthly GPP (GPPmax). Most models overestimated C use efficiency (CUE) as compared to observations at both regional and site levels. Further analysis shows that model variability of GPP and CUE are nonlinearly correlated to variability in specific leaf area and the maximum rate of carboxylation by the enzyme Rubisco at 25°C (Vcmax_25), respectively. The models also varied in their sensitivities of NPP, GPP, and CUE to historical changes in climate and atmospheric CO2 concentration. These results indicate that model predictive ability of the C cycle in permafrost regions can be improved by better representation of the processes controlling CUE and GPPmax as well as their sensitivity to climate change.

  3. Analysis of the spatial variation in the parameters of the SWAT model with application in Flanders, Northern Belgium

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Heuvelmans

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available Operational applications of a hydrological model often require the prediction of stream flow in (future time periods without stream flow observations or in ungauged catchments. Data for a case-specific optimisation of model parameters are not available for such applications, so parameters have to be derived from other catchments or time periods. It has been demonstrated that for applications of the SWAT in Northern Belgium, temporal transfers of the parameters have less influence than spatial transfers on the performance of the model. This study examines the spatial variation in parameter optima in more detail. The aim was to delineate zones wherein model parameters can be transferred without a significant loss of model performance. SWAT was calibrated for 25 catchments that are part of eight larger sub-basins of the Scheldt river basin. Two approaches are discussed for grouping these units in zones with a uniform set of parameters: a single parameter approach considering each parameter separately and a parameter set approach evaluating the parameterisation as a whole. For every catchment, the SWAT model was run with the local parameter optima, with the average parameter values for the entire study region (Flanders, with the zones delineated with the single parameter approach and with the zones obtained by the parameter set approach. Comparison of the model performances of these four parameterisation strategies indicates that both the single parameter and the parameter set zones lead to stream flow predictions that are more accurate than if the entire study region were treated as one single zone. On the other hand, the use of zonal average parameter values results in a considerably worse model fit compared to local parameter optima. Clustering of parameter sets gives a more accurate result than the single parameter approach and is, therefore, the preferred technique for use in the parameterisation of ungauged sub-catchments as part of the

  4. Rumination in posttraumatic stress and growth after a natural disaster: a model from northern Chile 2014 earthquakes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francisco Leal-Soto

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Background: Traumatic experiences, such as natural disasters, produce multiple and serious impacts on people. Despite the traditional focus on negative consequences, in many cases there are also positive consequences, such as posttraumatic growth. Tedeschi and Calhoun proposed a model of posttraumatic growth that emphasizes the role of rumination after the basic beliefs breakdown due to the occurrence of a traumatic experience. Method: A total of 238 volunteers affected by two major earthquakes and tsunami alerts in northern Chile on April 1 and 2, 2014, responded to an online survey measuring subjective severity, basic beliefs change, social share of emotion, rumination, posttraumatic stress, and posttraumatic growth. Results: Path analyses reveal that posttraumatic stress goes through a negative change in basic beliefs, intrusive rumination, and deliberated rumination, meanwhile posttraumatic growth is only achieved directly from a positive change in basic beliefs and deliberated rumination. Discussion: The model is consistent with the empirical model obtained in Chilean people affected by the earthquake and tsunami that occurred on 27 February, 2010, but it is slightly different and in a form that is more consistent with Tedeschi and Calhoun’s theoretical model. Both models remark on the role of deliberated rumination in posttraumatic growth and failure to progress from intrusive to deliberated rumination in posttraumatic stress, but the proposed one is more parsimonious and assumes subjective severity as an antecedent to basic belief changes. These conclusions must be considered in light of limitations that a cross-sectional design and the correlational nature of the statistical analysis carried out impose. Highlights of the article: Role of subjective severity, change of basic beliefs, social sharing of emotion, and rumination on posttraumatic stress and growth were modeled from responses of people affected by the April 1–2, 2014

  5. Home automation for a sustainable living:modelling a detached house in Northern Finland

    OpenAIRE

    Louis, J.-N. (Jean-Nicolas); Caló, A. (Antonio); Leiviskä, K. (Kauko); Pongrácz, E. (Eva)

    2014-01-01

    Abstract This paper presents a model of a detached house in which home automation has been progressively introduced into the building. The model integrates different factors related to end-user behaviour and decision-making regarding the management of electrical energy consumption, and integrates a gradual end-user response to home automation measures. The presented model aims to show the potential economic benefits obtained by the modelled changes of end-users’ behaviours within a smart e...

  6. Multi-site calibration, validation, and sensitivity analysis of the MIKE SHE Model for a large watershed in northern China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Wang

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Model calibration is essential for hydrologic modeling of large watersheds in a heterogeneous mountain environment. Little guidance is available for model calibration protocols for distributed models that aim at capturing the spatial variability of hydrologic processes. This study used the physically-based distributed hydrologic model, MIKE SHE, to contrast a lumped calibration protocol that used streamflow measured at one single watershed outlet to a multi-site calibration method which employed streamflow measurements at three stations within the large Chaohe River basin in northern China. Simulation results showed that the single-site calibrated model was able to sufficiently simulate the hydrographs for two of the three stations (Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of 0.65–0.75, and correlation coefficient 0.81–0.87 during the testing period, but the model performed poorly for the third station (Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient only 0.44. Sensitivity analysis suggested that streamflow of upstream area of the watershed was dominated by slow groundwater, whilst streamflow of middle- and down- stream areas by relatively quick interflow. Therefore, a multi-site calibration protocol was deemed necessary. Due to the potential errors and uncertainties with respect to the representation of spatial variability, performance measures from the multi-site calibration protocol slightly decreased for two of the three stations, whereas it was improved greatly for the third station. We concluded that multi-site calibration protocol reached a compromise in term of model performance for the three stations, reasonably representing the hydrographs of all three stations with Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient ranging from 0.59–072. The multi-site calibration protocol applied in the analysis generally has advantages to the single site calibration protocol.

  7. Hydrological application of the INCA model with varying spatial resolution and nitrogen dynamics in a northern river basin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Rankinen

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available As a first step in applying the Integrated Nitrogen model for CAtchments (INCA to the Simojoki river basin (3160 km2, this paper focuses on calibration of the hydrological part of the model and nitrogen (N dynamics in the river during the 1980s and 1990s. The model application utilised the GIS land-use and forest classification of Finland together with a recent forest inventory based on remote sensing. In the INCA model, the Hydrologically Effective Rainfall (HER is used to drive the water flow and N fluxes through the catchment system. HER was derived from the Watershed Simulation and Forecast System (WSFS. The basic component of the WSFS is a conceptual hydrological model which simulates runoff using precipitation, potential evapotranspiration and temperature data as inputs. Spatially uniform, lumped input data were calculated for the whole river basin and spatially semi-distributed input data were calculated for each of the nine sub-basins. When comparing discharges simulated by the INCA model with observed values, a better fit was obtained with the semi-distributed data than with the spatially uniform data (R2 0.78 v. 0.70 at Hosionkoski and 0.88 v. 0.78 at the river outlet. The timing of flow peaks was simulated rather well with both approaches, although the semi-distributed input data gave a more realistic simulation of low flow periods and the magnitude of spring flow peaks. The river basin has a relatively closed N cycle with low input and output fluxes of inorganic N. During 1982-2000, the average total N flux to the sea was 715 tonnes yr–1, of which 6% was NH4-N, 14% NO3-N, and 80% organic N. Annual variation in river flow and the concentrations of major N fractions in river water, and factors affecting this variation are discussed. Keywords: northern river basin, nitrogen, forest management, hydrology, dynamic modelling, semi-distributed modelling

  8. Amplified warming projections for high altitude regions of the northern hemisphere mid-latitudes from CMIP5 models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rangwala, Imtiaz; Sinsky, Eric; Miller, James R

    2013-01-01

    We use output from global climate models available from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) for three different greenhouse gas emission scenarios to investigate whether the projected warming in mountains by the end of the 21st century is significantly different from that in low elevation regions. To remove the effects of latitudinal variation in warming rates, we focus on seasonal changes in the mid-latitude band of the northern hemisphere between 27.5° N and 40° N, where the two major mountain systems are the Tibetan Plateau/Himalayas in Asia and the Rocky Mountains in the United States. Results from the multi-model ensemble indicate that warming rates in mountains will be enhanced relative to non-mountain regions at the same latitude, particularly during the cold season. The strongest correlations of enhanced warming with elevation are obtained for the daily minimum temperature during winter, with the largest increases found for the Tibetan Plateau/Himalayas. The model projections indicate that this occurs, in part, because of proportionally greater increases in downward longwave radiation at higher elevations in response to increases in water vapor. The mechanisms for enhanced increases in winter and spring maximum temperatures in the Rockies appear to be influenced more by increases in surface absorption of solar radiation owing to a reduced snow cover. Furthermore, the amplification of warming with elevation is greater for a higher greenhouse gas emission scenario. (letter)

  9. Hydrogeological modeling constraints provided by geophysical and geochemical mapping of a chlorinated ethenes plume in northern France

    Science.gov (United States)

    Razafindratsima, Stephen; Guérin, Roger; Bendjoudi, Hocine; de Marsily, Ghislain

    2014-09-01

    A methodological approach is described which combines geophysical and geochemical data to delineate the extent of a chlorinated ethenes plume in northern France; the methodology was used to calibrate a hydrogeological model of the contaminants' migration and degradation. The existence of strong reducing conditions in some parts of the aquifer is first determined by measuring in situ the redox potential and dissolved oxygen, dissolved ferrous iron and chloride concentrations. Electrical resistivity imaging and electromagnetic mapping, using the Slingram method, are then used to determine the shape of the pollutant plume. A decreasing empirical exponential relation between measured chloride concentrations in the water and aquifer electrical resistivity is observed; the resistivity formation factor calculated at a few points also shows a major contribution of chloride concentration in the resistivity of the saturated porous medium. MODFLOW software and MT3D99 first-order parent-daughter chain reaction and the RT3D aerobic-anaerobic model for tetrachloroethene (PCE)/trichloroethene (TCE) dechlorination are finally used for a first attempt at modeling the degradation of the chlorinated ethenes. After calibration, the distribution of the chlorinated ethenes and their degradation products simulated with the model approximately reflects the mean measured values in the observation wells, confirming the data-derived image of the plume.

  10. A comparative assessment of decision trees algorithms for flash flood susceptibility modeling at Haraz watershed, northern Iran.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khosravi, Khabat; Pham, Binh Thai; Chapi, Kamran; Shirzadi, Ataollah; Shahabi, Himan; Revhaug, Inge; Prakash, Indra; Tien Bui, Dieu

    2018-02-01

    Floods are one of the most damaging natural hazards causing huge loss of property, infrastructure and lives. Prediction of occurrence of flash flood locations is very difficult due to sudden change in climatic condition and manmade factors. However, prior identification of flood susceptible areas can be done with the help of machine learning techniques for proper timely management of flood hazards. In this study, we tested four decision trees based machine learning models namely Logistic Model Trees (LMT), Reduced Error Pruning Trees (REPT), Naïve Bayes Trees (NBT), and Alternating Decision Trees (ADT) for flash flood susceptibility mapping at the Haraz Watershed in the northern part of Iran. For this, a spatial database was constructed with 201 present and past flood locations and eleven flood-influencing factors namely ground slope, altitude, curvature, Stream Power Index (SPI), Topographic Wetness Index (TWI), land use, rainfall, river density, distance from river, lithology, and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). Statistical evaluation measures, the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve, and Freidman and Wilcoxon signed-rank tests were used to validate and compare the prediction capability of the models. Results show that the ADT model has the highest prediction capability for flash flood susceptibility assessment, followed by the NBT, the LMT, and the REPT, respectively. These techniques have proven successful in quickly determining flood susceptible areas. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  11. HYDROGEOLOGY AND CONCEPTUAL MODEL OF THE KARSTIC COASTAL AQUIFER IN NORTHERN YUCATAN STATE, MEXICO

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miguel J Villasuso-Pino

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available The coastal zone of northern Yucatan Peninsula (YP is mainly constituted by Tertiary limestones, covered by Pleistocen limestones, where there exist swamps and estuary systems, locally called “rías”, with mouths connecting them to the sea and hence being a way for an important amount of groundwater to discharge, like in Ría Lagartos and Celestún. These limestones have karstic layers located at depths from 8 to 16 meters below terrain surface.  It is in these layers where groundwater mainly flows toward coast, passing below the sand dune and discharging in the sea in the form of submarine springs which in many cases manifest themselves on the marine surface depending on the hydraulic or piezometric fresh water head. The width of the superficial limestone within this coastal fringe, called “caliche”, varies from 5 to 10 kilometers in the study zone (Chuburna-Progreso-Chicxulub.  Its permeability is extremely low, so it constitutes a confining layer that impedes superficial waters to percolate toward groundwater.  The hydraulic head of the groundwater below this confining layer is over the mean sea level and also over the swamp water level, coastal lagoons and estuaries. There are two important hydrological phenomena that occur in this coastal fringe: 1 There is no recharge to the aquifer (groundwater due to limestone rock outcrops is impermeable or semipermeable; and 2 groundwater pressure is not lost, nor saline interfase is rised if the superficial layer is broken.  The groundwater pollution vulnerability within this coastal fringe is less than that for the superficial saline waters of swamps and estuaries, because of caliche’s low intrinsic permeability that impedes percolation.

  12. Stone tools and foraging in northern Madagascar challenge Holocene extinction models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dewar, Robert E; Radimilahy, Chantal; Wright, Henry T; Jacobs, Zenobia; Kelly, Gwendolyn O; Berna, Francesco

    2013-07-30

    Past research on Madagascar indicates that village communities were established about AD 500 by people of both Indonesian and East African heritage. Evidence of earlier visits is scattered and contentious. Recent archaeological excavations in northern Madagascar provide evidence of occupational sites with microlithic stone technologies related to foraging for forest and coastal resources. A forager occupation of one site dates to earlier than 2000 B.C., doubling the length of Madagascar's known occupational history, and thus the time during which people exploited Madagascar's environments. We detail stratigraphy, chronology, and artifacts from two rock shelters. Ambohiposa near Iharana (Vohémar) on the northeast coast, yielded a stratified assemblage with small flakes, microblades, and retouched crescentic and trapezoidal tools, probably projectile elements, made on cherts and obsidian, some brought more that 200 km. (14)C dates are contemporary with the earliest villages. No food remains are preserved. Lakaton'i Anja near Antsiranana in the north yielded several stratified assemblages. The latest assemblage is well dated to A.D. 1050-1350, by (14)C and optically stimulated luminescence dating and pottery imported from the Near East and China. Below is a series of stratified assemblages similar to Ambohiposa. (14)C and optically stimulated luminescence dates indicate occupation from at least 2000 B.C. Faunal remains indicate a foraging pattern. Our evidence shows that foragers with a microlithic technology were active in Madagascar long before the arrival of farmers and herders and before many Late Holocene faunal extinctions. The differing effects of historically distinct economies must be identified and understood to reconstruct Holocene histories of human environmental impact.

  13. Dynamics and conceptual model of the Rossena castle landslide (Northern Apennines, Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Chelli

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available In the Northern Apennines there are many historical villages and castles, which are of great value and represent a cultural heritage of great importance. Their presence within a territory greatly affected by landslide hazards creates, in many circumstances, the need to solve problems of land management and to act for the preservation of historical monuments. This paper describe an interesting landslide, failed during the night of 28 February 2004, that involved the village of Rossena: the failure damaged the village (Fig. 1, the road and the fields down to the stream but, fortunately, the castle just upslope the village was not involved at all. The 10th century massive castle of Rossena stands on the top of a cliff at about 500 m a.s.l., on the border between the provinces of Parma and Reggio Emilia, and it is surrounded by a small ancient village. The castle of Rossena is the best preserved stronghold of the Longobard times, enlarged and reinforced in the tenth century and partially rebuilt by Bonifacio, the father of Matilda of Canossa (the Vice-Queen of Italy and probably the most important woman in the Middle Ages as a defensive structure guarding the Enza Valley. In addition, at Conossa, very close to Rossena, there was the meeting between Pope Gregory VII and the Emperor of Germany Henry IV, during the historical event known as 'fight for the investitures'. For these reasons, the area of Rossena is one of the most relevant from a historical point of view in the entire western part of the Emilia Romagna Region and it also has a high value as a geosite (Coratza et al., 2004.  

  14. Dynamics and conceptual model of the Rossena castle landslide (Northern Apennines, Italy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chelli, A.; Mandrone, G.; Ruffini, A.; Truffelli, G.

    2005-11-01

    In the Northern Apennines there are many historical villages and castles, which are of great value and represent a cultural heritage of great importance. Their presence within a territory greatly affected by landslide hazards creates, in many circumstances, the need to solve problems of land management and to act for the preservation of historical monuments. This paper describe an interesting landslide, failed during the night of 28 February 2004, that involved the village of Rossena: the failure damaged the village (Fig. 1), the road and the fields down to the stream but, fortunately, the castle just upslope the village was not involved at all. The 10th century massive castle of Rossena stands on the top of a cliff at about 500 m a.s.l., on the border between the provinces of Parma and Reggio Emilia, and it is surrounded by a small ancient village. The castle of Rossena is the best preserved stronghold of the Longobard times, enlarged and reinforced in the tenth century and partially rebuilt by Bonifacio, the father of Matilda of Canossa (the Vice-Queen of Italy and probably the most important woman in the Middle Ages) as a defensive structure guarding the Enza Valley. In addition, at Conossa, very close to Rossena, there was the meeting between Pope Gregory VII and the Emperor of Germany Henry IV, during the historical event known as "fight for the investitures". For these reasons, the area of Rossena is one of the most relevant from a historical point of view in the entire western part of the Emilia Romagna Region and it also has a high value as a geosite (Coratza et al., 2004).

  15. Vertical mixing in the marginal ice zone of the northern Barents Sea—Results from numerical model experiments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sundfjord, Arild; Ellingsen, Ingrid; Slagstad, Dag; Svendsen, Harald

    2008-10-01

    Numerical ocean model simulations of the marginal ice zone (MIZ) of the Barents Sea have been made for the years 2003-2005. As part of a project studying carbon cycling in the northern Barents Sea MIZ, the model simulations provide a pre-history and context for interpretation of physical, biological and chemical field data collected during the annual project cruises in this period. Large-scale features as well as the temporal evolution of stratification and vertical mixing, from well-mixed winter conditions to the end of the ice-free season, are described. Modelled ice concentration at the times of the annual project cruises is in agreement with that inferred from satellite data. The simulated seasonal development of mixing and stratification in the MIZ, from winter via the melting period and through the productive summer season, is described. Turbulent mixing forced by tidal currents and wind episodes is examined, and resulting hydrographical conditions and diffusivities are compared with previously published measurements from the project cruises. The vertical and temporal extent to which such variable mixing influences the water column is realistically modelled, but the strength of mixing appears to be inaccurately distributed. Most importantly, differences in modelled and observed water-column stratification are identified. Enhanced near-surface mixing appears to protrude too deeply in the model, and the water column is excessively homogenized below the pycnocline. Experiments with the Mellor-Yamada Level 2.5 turbulence scheme are compared with those from the Richardson number scheme routinely used in the model. Some important differences between the schemes are identified, but both have similar problems with respect to resulting hydrography. Simulations with horizontal grid resolution increased from 4×4 km to 800×800 m allows for processes inducing significantly more energetic frontal mixing at the MIZ edge to be resolved.

  16. Looking Forward: Using Scenario Modeling to Support Regional Land Use Planning in Northern Yukon, Canada

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shawn R. Francis

    2011-12-01

    We describe how the ALCES® landscape cumulative effects simulation model was used to explore possible outcomes of an oil and gas scenario in the Eagle Plain basin of the North Yukon Planning Region of Yukon Territory, Canada. Scenario modeling was conducted to facilitate informed discussion about key land use issues and practices, potential levels of landscape change, and possible socioeconomic benefits and environmental impacts. Modeling results supported the sustainable development and cumulative effects management recommendations of the North Yukon Regional Land Use Plan. Land use scenario modeling, as applied in this project, was found to be an effective approach for establishing sustainable development guidelines through a regional planning process.

  17. Ecosystem responses to recent climate change and fire disturbance at northern high latitudes: observations and model results contrasting northern Eurasia and North America

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goetz, S J; Mack, M C; Gurney, K R; Randerson, J T; Houghton, R A

    2007-01-01

    Vegetation composition at high latitudes plays a critical role in the climate and, in turn, is strongly affected by the climate. The increased frequency of fires expected as a result of climate warming at high latitudes will feedback positively to further warming by releasing carbon to the atmosphere, but will also feedback negatively by increasing the surface albedo. The net effect is complex because the severity of fire affects the trajectory of both carbon stocks and albedo change following a fire, and these are likely to differ between high latitude ecosystems in North America and northern Eurasia. Here we use growth trajectories, productivity trends and regional carbon fluxes to characterize these fire- and climate-driven changes

  18. Perceptions of the Impact of Online Learning as a Distance-Based Learning Model on the Professional Practices of Working Nurses in Northern Ontario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carter, Lorraine; Hanna, Mary; Warry, Wayne

    2016-01-01

    Nurses in Canada face diverse challenges to their ongoing educational pursuits. As a result, they have been early adopters of courses and programs based on distance education principles and, in particular, online learning models. In the study described in this paper, nurses studying at two northern universities, in programs involving online…

  19. Predictive habitat models derived from nest-box occupancy for the endangered Carolina northern flying squirrel in the southern Appalachians

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ford, W. Mark; Evans, A.M.; Odom, Richard H.; Rodrigue, Jane L.; Kelly, C.A.; Abaid, Nicole; Diggins, Corinne A.; Newcomb, Doug

    2016-01-01

    In the southern Appalachians, artificial nest-boxes are used to survey for the endangered Carolina northern flying squirrel (CNFS; Glaucomys sabrinus coloratus), a disjunct subspecies associated with high elevation (>1385 m) forests. Using environmental parameters diagnostic of squirrel habitat, we created 35 a priori occupancy models in the program PRESENCE for boxes surveyed in western North Carolina, 1996-2011. Our best approximating model showed CNFS denning associated with sheltered landforms and montane conifers, primarily red spruce Picea rubens. As sheltering decreased, decreasing distance to conifers was important. Area with a high probability (>0.5) of occupancy was distributed over 18662 ha of habitat, mostly across 10 mountain ranges. Because nest-box surveys underrepresented areas >1750 m and CNFS forage in conifers, we combined areas of high occupancy with conifer GIS coverages to create an additional distribution model of likely habitat. Regionally, above 1385 m, we determined that 31795 ha could be occupied by CNFS. Known occupied patches ranged from

  20. Dynamic modeling of organophosphate pesticide load in surface water in the northern San Joaquin Valley watershed of California

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Luo Yuzhou; Zhang Xuyang; Liu Xingmei; Ficklin, Darren; Zhang Minghua

    2008-01-01

    The hydrology, sediment, and pesticide transport components of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) were evaluated on the northern San Joaquin Valley watershed of California. The Nash-Sutcliffe coefficients for monthly stream flow and sediment load ranged from 0.49 to 0.99 over the watershed during the study period of 1992-2005. The calibrated SWAT model was applied to simulate fate and transport processes of two organophosphate pesticides of diazinon and chlorpyrifos at watershed scale. The model generated satisfactory predictions of dissolved pesticide loads relative to the monitoring data. The model also showed great success in capturing spatial patterns of dissolved diazinon and chlorpyrifos loads according to the soil properties and landscape morphology over the large agricultural watershed. This study indicated that curve number was the major factor influencing the hydrology while pesticide fate and transport were mainly affected by surface runoff and pesticide application and in the study area. - Major factors governing the instream loads of organophosphate pesticides are magnitude and timing of surface runoff and pesticide application

  1. Dynamic modeling of organophosphate pesticide load in surface water in the northern San Joaquin Valley watershed of California

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Luo Yuzhou [Department of Land, Air and Water Resources, University of California, Davis, CA 95616 (United States); Institute of Watershed Science and Environmental Ecology, Wenzhou Medical College, Wenzhou, 325000 (China); Zhang Xuyang [Department of Land, Air and Water Resources, University of California, Davis, CA 95616 (United States); Liu Xingmei [Department of Land, Air and Water Resources, University of California, Davis, CA 95616 (United States); Institute of Soil, Water and Environmental Science, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310029 (China); Ficklin, Darren [Department of Land, Air and Water Resources, University of California, Davis, CA 95616 (United States); Zhang Minghua [Department of Land, Air and Water Resources, University of California, Davis, CA 95616 (United States); Institute of Watershed Science and Environmental Ecology, Wenzhou Medical College, Wenzhou, 325000 (China)], E-mail: mhzhang@ucdavis.edu

    2008-12-15

    The hydrology, sediment, and pesticide transport components of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) were evaluated on the northern San Joaquin Valley watershed of California. The Nash-Sutcliffe coefficients for monthly stream flow and sediment load ranged from 0.49 to 0.99 over the watershed during the study period of 1992-2005. The calibrated SWAT model was applied to simulate fate and transport processes of two organophosphate pesticides of diazinon and chlorpyrifos at watershed scale. The model generated satisfactory predictions of dissolved pesticide loads relative to the monitoring data. The model also showed great success in capturing spatial patterns of dissolved diazinon and chlorpyrifos loads according to the soil properties and landscape morphology over the large agricultural watershed. This study indicated that curve number was the major factor influencing the hydrology while pesticide fate and transport were mainly affected by surface runoff and pesticide application and in the study area. - Major factors governing the instream loads of organophosphate pesticides are magnitude and timing of surface runoff and pesticide application.

  2. An ecological model of the artificial ecosystem (northern Hangzhou Bay, China): analysis of ecosystem structure and fishing impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Zuozhi; Xu, Shannan; He, Peimin

    2011-06-01

    The artificial ecosystem is a large-scale enclosure in northern Hangzhou Bay, China. Using the Ecopath with Ecosim software, a trophic structure model is constructed for 2006-2007 to characterize the food web structure, functioning, and describing the ecosystem impacts of fishing. Input information for the model were gathered from published and unpublished reports and from our own estimates during the period 2006-2007. Pedigree work and simple sensitivity analysis were carried out to evaluate the quality and the uncertainty of the model. Results show that the food web in the enclosed sea area was dominated by a detritus pathway. The trophic levels of the groups varied from 1.00 for primary producers and detritus to 3.90 for piscivorous fish in the artificial system. Using network analysis, the system network was mapped into a linear food chain, and five discrete trophic levels were found with a mean transfer efficiency of 9.8% from detritus, 9.4% from primary producer within the ecosystem. The geometric mean of the trophic transfer efficiencies was 9.5%. Detritus contributed 57% of the total energy flux, and the other 43% came from primary producers. The ecosystem maturity indices-TPP/TR (total primary production/total respiration), FCI (Finn cycling index), A (ascendancy) and TB/TDET were 2.672, 25%, 31.5%, and 0.013, respectively, showing that the artificial system is at developmental stage according to Odum's theory of ecosystem development. The `Keystoneness' result indicates that herbivorous zooplankton was identified as keystone species in this system. Furthermore, a simple dynamical simulation was preformed for varying fishing mortality over 10 years. The biomass of most fish groups has a small increase when the fishing mortality at current level. Increasing fishing mortality by twofold resulted in a marked decrease in biomass of piscivorous fish accompanied by an increase in that of other fish groups, notable zooplanktivorous fish. Generally, this study

  3. Atmospheric dust modeling from meso to global scales with the online NMMB/BSC-Dust model – Part 2: Experimental campaigns in Northern Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Haustein

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available The new NMMB/BSC-Dust model is intended to provide short to medium-range weather and dust forecasts from regional to global scales. It is an online model in which the dust aerosol dynamics and physics are solved at each model time step. The companion paper (Pérez et al., 2011 develops the dust model parameterizations and provides daily to annual evaluations of the model for its global and regional configurations. Modeled aerosol optical depth (AOD was evaluated against AERONET Sun photometers over Northern Africa, Middle East and Europe with correlations around 0.6–0.7 on average without dust data assimilation. In this paper we analyze in detail the behavior of the model using data from the Saharan Mineral dUst experiment (SAMUM-1 in 2006 and the Bodélé Dust Experiment (BoDEx in 2005. AOD from satellites and Sun photometers, vertically resolved extinction coefficients from lidars and particle size distributions at the ground and in the troposphere are used, complemented by wind profile data and surface meteorological measurements. All simulations were performed at the regional scale for the Northern African domain at the expected operational horizontal resolution of 25 km. Model results for SAMUM-1 generally show good agreement with satellite data over the most active Saharan dust sources. The model reproduces the AOD from Sun photometers close to sources and after long-range transport, and the dust size spectra at different height levels. At this resolution, the model is not able to reproduce a large haboob that occurred during the campaign. Some deficiencies are found concerning the vertical dust distribution related to the representation of the mixing height in the atmospheric part of the model. For the BoDEx episode, we found the diurnal temperature cycle to be strongly dependant on the soil moisture, which is underestimated in the NCEP analysis used for model initialization. The low level jet (LLJ and the dust AOD over the Bodélé are

  4. Atmospheric Dust Modeling from Meso to Global Scales with the Online NMMB/BSC-Dust Model Part 2: Experimental Campaigns in Northern Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haustein, K.; Perez, C.; Baldasano, J. M.; Jorba, O.; Basart, S.; Miller, R. L.; Janjic, Z.; Black, T.; Nickovic, S.; Todd, M. C.; hide

    2012-01-01

    The new NMMB/BSC-Dust model is intended to provide short to medium-range weather and dust forecasts from regional to global scales. It is an online model in which the dust aerosol dynamics and physics are solved at each model time step. The companion paper (Perez et al., 2011) develops the dust model parameterizations and provides daily to annual evaluations of the model for its global and regional configurations. Modeled aerosol optical depth (AOD) was evaluated against AERONET Sun photometers over Northern Africa, Middle East and Europe with correlations around 0.6-0.7 on average without dust data assimilation. In this paper we analyze in detail the behavior of the model using data from the Saharan Mineral dUst experiment (SAMUM-1) in 2006 and the Bodele Dust Experiment (BoDEx) in 2005. AOD from satellites and Sun photometers, vertically resolved extinction coefficients from lidars and particle size distributions at the ground and in the troposphere are used, complemented by wind profile data and surface meteorological measurements. All simulations were performed at the regional scale for the Northern African domain at the expected operational horizontal resolution of 25 km. Model results for SAMUM-1 generally show good agreement with satellite data over the most active Saharan dust sources. The model reproduces the AOD from Sun photometers close to sources and after long-range transport, and the dust size spectra at different height levels. At this resolution, the model is not able to reproduce a large haboob that occurred during the campaign. Some deficiencies are found concerning the vertical dust distribution related to the representation of the mixing height in the atmospheric part of the model. For the BoDEx episode, we found the diurnal temperature cycle to be strongly dependant on the soil moisture, which is underestimated in the NCEP analysis used for model initialization. The low level jet (LLJ) and the dust AOD over the Bodélé are well reproduced

  5. A modelling framework for reclamation planning of oil sands mines in northern Alberta

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shaw, R.D.; Hamilton, H.R.; MacKinnon, M.D.; Gulley, J.R.

    1995-01-01

    The Reclamation Landscape Model Development Project was initiated in 1991 to develop a modelling framework to assist in oil sands mine reclamation planning. The initial year focused on developing a suite of computer simulation models suitable for evaluating hydrodynamic, water quality and biological conditions of fine-tails bottom lakes that would be capped with a layer of fresh water. That modelling framework was further refined in 1992--93 by incorporating probabilistic capabilities, developing of secondary production and food-chain components, and implementing of a model to simulate contaminant concentrations in the Athabasca River. In 1993--94 the emphasis expanded from a focus solely on developing tools for evaluating wet landscape options to developing an integrated modelling framework capable of evaluating both wet and dry landscape reclamation options. Major components completed in 1993--94 included development of a dry landscape module that includes surface runoff, groundwater seepage, air vapor and bioaccumulation components, a wetlands module to assist in evaluating treatment potential and for optimizing design of wetlands units, and a risk analysis module for quantifying risks to human health and ecological receptors. The Reclamation Landscape Model is a compartment modelling system that consists of a number of stand-alone computer programs that can be run in conjunction with one another or separately. The computer programs that simulate contaminant-fate processes range from simple empirical models to complex, mechanistic, three-dimensional, dynamic models, which are capable of predicting contaminant concentrations in water, soil, air and biota for a wide range of reclamation landscape units. Most of the component models have probabilistic capabilities

  6. Modeling land subsidence due to shallow-water hydrocarbon production: A case study in the northern Adriatic Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gambolati, G.; Castelletto, N.; Ferronato, M.; Janna, C.; Teatini, P.

    2012-12-01

    One major environmental concern of subsurface fluid withdrawal is land subsidence. The issue of a reliable estimate and prediction of the expected anthropogenic land subsidence is particularly important whenever the production of hydrocarbon (oil and gas) occurs from large reservoirs located close to deltaic zones (e.g., Mississippi, Po, Nile, Niger, Yellow rivers) or shallow-water with low-lying coastlands (e.g., Northern Caspian sea, Dutch Wadden Sea). In such cases even a small reduction of the ground elevation relative to the mean sea level may impact seriously on human settlements and natural environment. The monitoring of the ongoing land subsidence has been significantly improved over the last decade by SAR-based interferometry. These measurements can be quite effectively used to map the process and calibrate geomechanical models for predicting the future event. However, this powerful methodology cannot be implemented off-shore. Although permanent GPS stations can be established to monitor the movement of the production facilities usually installed above the gravity center of a reservoir, an accurate characterization of the settlement bowl affecting the sea bottom, with a possible migration toward the shore, is a challenge still today. In the present communication the case study of the Riccione gas reservoir is discussed. The field is located in the near-shore northern Adriatic Sea, approximately 15 km far from the coastline, where the seawater height is about 20 m. The gas-bearing strata are 1100 m deep and are hydraulically connected to a relatively weak aquifer. Production of 70% of the cumulative reserves as of 2006 yielded a pore pressure decrease of 60 bars. Reliable geometry and geomechanical properties of the depleted formations were detected with the aid of a 3D seismic survey and a borehole equipped with radioactive markers, respectively. The latter pointed out that the Riccione formations are characterized by an unusually high oedometer

  7. Calcareous Bio-Concretions in the Northern Adriatic Sea: Habitat Types, Environmental Factors that Influence Habitat Distributions, and Predictive Modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Falace, Annalisa; Kaleb, Sara; Curiel, Daniele; Miotti, Chiara; Galli, Giovanni; Querin, Stefano; Ballesteros, Enric; Solidoro, Cosimo; Bandelj, Vinko

    2015-01-01

    Habitat classifications provide guidelines for mapping and comparing marine resources across geographic regions. Calcareous bio-concretions and their associated biota have not been exhaustively categorized. Furthermore, for management and conservation purposes, species and habitat mapping is critical. Recently, several developments have occurred in the field of predictive habitat modeling, and multiple methods are available. In this study, we defined the habitats constituting northern Adriatic biogenic reefs and created a predictive habitat distribution model. We used an updated dataset of the epibenthic assemblages to define the habitats, which we verified using the fuzzy k-means (FKM) clustering method. Redundancy analysis was employed to model the relationships between the environmental descriptors and the FKM membership grades. Predictive modelling was carried out to map habitats across the basin. Habitat A (opportunistic macroalgae, encrusting Porifera, bioeroders) characterizes reefs closest to the coastline, which are affected by coastal currents and river inputs. Habitat B is distinguished by massive Porifera, erect Tunicata, and non-calcareous encrusting algae (Peyssonnelia spp.). Habitat C (non-articulated coralline, Polycitor adriaticus) is predicted in deeper areas. The onshore-offshore gradient explains the variability of the assemblages because of the influence of coastal freshwater, which is the main driver of nutrient dynamics. This model supports the interpretation of Habitat A and C as the extremes of a gradient that characterizes the epibenthic assemblages, while Habitat B demonstrates intermediate characteristics. Areas of transition are a natural feature of the marine environment and may include a mixture of habitats and species. The habitats proposed are easy to identify in the field, are related to different environmental features, and may be suitable for application in studies focused on other geographic areas. The habitat model outputs

  8. Calcareous Bio-Concretions in the Northern Adriatic Sea: Habitat Types, Environmental Factors that Influence Habitat Distributions, and Predictive Modeling.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Annalisa Falace

    Full Text Available Habitat classifications provide guidelines for mapping and comparing marine resources across geographic regions. Calcareous bio-concretions and their associated biota have not been exhaustively categorized. Furthermore, for management and conservation purposes, species and habitat mapping is critical. Recently, several developments have occurred in the field of predictive habitat modeling, and multiple methods are available. In this study, we defined the habitats constituting northern Adriatic biogenic reefs and created a predictive habitat distribution model. We used an updated dataset of the epibenthic assemblages to define the habitats, which we verified using the fuzzy k-means (FKM clustering method. Redundancy analysis was employed to model the relationships between the environmental descriptors and the FKM membership grades. Predictive modelling was carried out to map habitats across the basin. Habitat A (opportunistic macroalgae, encrusting Porifera, bioeroders characterizes reefs closest to the coastline, which are affected by coastal currents and river inputs. Habitat B is distinguished by massive Porifera, erect Tunicata, and non-calcareous encrusting algae (Peyssonnelia spp.. Habitat C (non-articulated coralline, Polycitor adriaticus is predicted in deeper areas. The onshore-offshore gradient explains the variability of the assemblages because of the influence of coastal freshwater, which is the main driver of nutrient dynamics. This model supports the interpretation of Habitat A and C as the extremes of a gradient that characterizes the epibenthic assemblages, while Habitat B demonstrates intermediate characteristics. Areas of transition are a natural feature of the marine environment and may include a mixture of habitats and species. The habitats proposed are easy to identify in the field, are related to different environmental features, and may be suitable for application in studies focused on other geographic areas. The habitat

  9. Applying surrogate species presences to correct sample bias in species distribution models: a case study using the Pilbara population of the Northern Quoll

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shaun W. Molloy

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available The management of populations of threatened species requires the capacity to identify areas of high habitat value. We developed a high resolution species distribution model (SDM for the endangered Pilbara northern quoll Dasyurus hallucatus, population using MaxEnt software and a combined suite of bioclimatic and landscape variables. Once common throughout much of northern Australia, this marsupial carnivore has recently declined throughout much of its former range and is listed as endangered by the IUCN. Other than the potential threats presented by climate change, and the invasive cane toad Rhinella marina (which has not yet arrived in the Pilbara. The Pilbara population is also impacted by introduced predators, pastoral and mining activities. To account for sample bias resulting from targeted surveys unevenly spread through the region, a pseudo-absence bias layer was developed from presence records of other critical weight-range non-volant mammals. The resulting model was then tested using the biomod2 package which produces ensemble models from individual models created with different algorithms. This ensemble model supported the distribution determined by the bias compensated MaxEnt model with a covariance of of 86% between models with both models largely identifying the same areas as high priority habitat. The primary product of this exercise is a high resolution SDM which corroborates and elaborates on our understanding of the ecology and habitat preferences of the Pilbara Northern Quoll population thereby improving our capacity to manage this population in the face of future threats.

  10. PnET-BGC: Modeling Biogeochemical Processes in a Northern Hardwood Forest Ecosystem

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This archived model product contains the directions, executables, and procedures for running PnET-BGC to recreate the results of: Gbondo-Tugbawa, S.S., C.T. Driscoll...

  11. PnET-BGC: Modeling Biogeochemical Processes in a Northern Hardwood Forest Ecosystem

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — ABSTRACT: This archived model product contains the directions, executables, and procedures for running PnET-BGC to recreate the results of: Gbondo-Tugbawa, S.S.,...

  12. Northern Gulf 1 Arc-second NAVD 88 Coast Digital Elevation Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — NOAA's National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) is building high-resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) for select U.S. coastal regions in the Gulf of Mexico....

  13. Northern Gulf 1 Arc-second MHW Coast Digital Elevation Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — NOAA's National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) is building high-resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) for select U.S. coastal regions in the Gulf of Mexico....

  14. LBA-ECO LC-01 SRTM 90-Meter Digital Elevation Model, Northern Ecuadorian Amazon

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — ABSTRACT: This data set provides 90-meter resolution Digital Elevation Model data used in the University of North Carolina's Carolina Population Center (CPC) Ecuador...

  15. LBA-ECO LC-01 SRTM 90-Meter Digital Elevation Model, Northern Ecuadorian Amazon

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This data set provides 90-meter resolution Digital Elevation Model data used in the University of North Carolina's Carolina Population Center (CPC) Ecuador Projects....

  16. Using a transient GCM simulation of the last deglaciation to model the evolution of Northern Hemisphere ice sheets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gregoire, Lauren; Valdes, Paul; Payne, Tony; Kahana, Ron

    2010-05-01

    Climate-ice sheet interactions played an important role during the last deglaciation. To better understand these interactions, coupling between a 3D ice sheet model and an intermediate complexity model has been used to simulate the transient evolution of climate and ice sheets over the deglaciation (Charbit et al. 2005; Bonelli et al. 2009). As pointed out by these studies the geographical distribution of ice sheets obtained could be improved by having a better spatial distribution of precipitation. This could be achieved by using a General circulation model. It is only recently, however, that fully coupled GCM's can provide us with a continuous simulation of the climate during the last deglaciation and made it possible to simulate the transient evolution of climate and ice sheets. We use a transient climate simulation of the last deglaciation (21000 to 9000 years ago) realised with FAMOUS (a low resolution version of HadCM3) to force the 3D ice sheet model Glimmer, set up to simulate the Laurentide and Fennoscandian ice sheets. The climate model was forced with continuous changes in insolation, greenhouse gases concentration and realistic freshwater fluxes. The land sea mask, bathymetry, orography and ice sheets extent were updated every 1000 years following Ice-5G reconstruction. Evolving temperature and precipitation fields from this climate simulation were then used to force Glimmer using a standard PDD mass balance scheme. The simulated evolution of Northern hemisphere ice sheets through the deglaciation is presented. We investigate the causes of change in the ice sheet geometry by comparing the role of internal ice dynamic against climate forcing.

  17. Analysis and modeling of soil slips in the Emilia Romagna Apennine (Northern Italy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montrasio, L.; Valentino, R.; Losi, G.

    2009-04-01

    On 10-11 April 2005 the Emilia Romagna Apennine was affected by an intense rainfall event that triggered dozens of soil slips in the Province of Reggio Emilia. These phenomena have been widely described in the scientific literature, referring to historical events occurred in many parts of the world. The particular danger of these phenomena is related to their speed of development, with the difficulty of foreseeing their location, but also with the high density of distribution of individual phenomena, whose downhill trajectories have a substantial probability of interfering with urbanized areas. During the event of April 2005 in the Emilia Romagna Apennine, these shallow landslides mainly occurred on slopes of cultivated lands, often provoking the interruption of roads, heavy damages to the farming activities and economic losses. On the basis of an inventory by aerial photograph interpretation, it was possible to locate 45 sites where soil slips occurred. In the present work the study area is described, considering both geological and climatic aspects. The inducing factors, which are relative to the territory morphology, and the outbreak factors of the triggering mechanism, which are relative to the rainfall conditions, are deeply analyzed. Once known geometrical features and soil characteristics of the slopes, for each site a physically based triggering model, that has recently developed by the Authors, has been applied by considering the local scale of the phenomenon. The model allows to take into account dynamically, in a simplified way, the connection between the stability condition of a slope, the characteristics of the soil and rainfall amounts, including also antecedent rainfalls. The model, in fact, is aimed to give an answer to the recent challenge represented by the dynamic use of real-time landslides early warning systems, the basis of which have to be the coupling between rainfall amounts, hydrological model and stability slope models. The triggering

  18. Methodology for deriving hydrogeological input parameters for safety-analysis models - application to fractured crystalline rocks of Northern Switzerland

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vomvoris, S.; Andrews, R.W.; Lanyon, G.W.; Voborny, O.; Wilson, W.

    1996-04-01

    Switzerland is one of many nations with nuclear power that is seeking to identify rock types and locations that would be suitable for the underground disposal of nuclear waste. A common challenge among these programs is to provide engineering designers and safety analysts with a reasonably representative hydrogeological input dataset that synthesizes the relevant information from direct field observations as well as inferences and model results derived from those observations. Needed are estimates of the volumetric flux through a volume of rock and the distribution of that flux into discrete pathways between the repository zones and the biosphere. These fluxes are not directly measurable but must be derived based on understandings of the range of plausible hydrogeologic conditions expected at the location investigated. The methodology described in this report utilizes conceptual and numerical models at various scales to derive the input dataset. The methodology incorporates an innovative approach, called the geometric approach, in which field observations and their associated uncertainty, together with a conceptual representation of those features that most significantly affect the groundwater flow regime, were rigorously applied to generate alternative possible realizations of hydrogeologic features in the geosphere. In this approach, the ranges in the output values directly reflect uncertainties in the input values. As a demonstration, the methodology is applied to the derivation of the hydrogeological dataset for the crystalline basement of Northern Switzerland. (author) figs., tabs., refs

  19. Modelling and Analysis of Hydrodynamics and Water Quality for Rivers in the Northern Cold Region of China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Gula; Zhu, Yunqiang; Wu, Guozheng; Li, Jing; Li, Zhao-Liang; Sun, Jiulin

    2016-04-08

    In this study, the Mudan River, which is the most typical river in the northern cold region of China was selected as the research object; Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code (EFDC) was adopted to construct a new two-dimensional water quality model for the urban sections of the Mudan River, and concentrations of COD(Cr) and NH₃N during ice-covered and open-water periods were simulated and analyzed. Results indicated that roughness coefficient and comprehensive pollutant decay rate were significantly different in those periods. To be specific, the roughness coefficient in the ice-covered period was larger than that of the open-water period, while the decay rate within the former period was smaller than that in the latter. In addition, according to the analysis of the simulated results, the main reasons for the decay rate reduction during the ice-covered period are temperature drop, upstream inflow decrease and ice layer cover; among them, ice sheet is the major contributor of roughness increase. These aspects were discussed in more detail in this work. The model could be generalized to hydrodynamic water quality process simulation researches on rivers in other cold regions as well.

  20. Modelling and Analysis of Hydrodynamics and Water Quality for Rivers in the Northern Cold Region of China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gula Tang

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available In this study, the Mudan River, which is the most typical river in the northern cold region of China was selected as the research object; Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code (EFDC was adopted to construct a new two-dimensional water quality model for the urban sections of the Mudan River, and concentrations of CODCr and NH3N during ice-covered and open-water periods were simulated and analyzed. Results indicated that roughness coefficient and comprehensive pollutant decay rate were significantly different in those periods. To be specific, the roughness coefficient in the ice-covered period was larger than that of the open-water period, while the decay rate within the former period was smaller than that in the latter. In addition, according to the analysis of the simulated results, the main reasons for the decay rate reduction during the ice-covered period are temperature drop, upstream inflow decrease and ice layer cover; among them, ice sheet is the major contributor of roughness increase. These aspects were discussed in more detail in this work. The model could be generalized to hydrodynamic water quality process simulation researches on rivers in other cold regions as well.

  1. The Application of Remotely Sensed Data and Models to Benefit Conservation and Restoration Along the Northern Gulf of Mexico Coast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quattrochi, Dale; Estes, Maurice, Jr.; Al-Hamdan, Mohammad; Thom, Ron; Woodruff, Dana; Judd, Chaeli; Ellis, Jean; Swann, Roberta; Johnson, Hoyt, III

    2010-01-01

    New data, tools, and capabilities for decision making are significant needs in the northern Gulf of Mexico and other coastal areas. The goal of this project is to support NASA s Earth Science Mission Directorate and its Applied Science Program and the Gulf of Mexico Alliance by producing and providing NASA data and products that will benefit decision making by coastal resource managers and other end users in the Gulf region. Data and research products are being developed to assist coastal resource managers adapt and plan for changing conditions by evaluating how climate changes and urban expansion will impact land cover/land use (LCLU), hydrodynamics, water properties, and shallow water habitats; to identify priority areas for conservation and restoration; and to distribute datasets to end-users and facilitating user interaction with models. The proposed host sites for data products are NOAA s National Coastal Data Development Center Regional Ecosystem Data Management, and Mississippi-Alabama Habitat Database. Tools will be available on the Gulf of Mexico Regional Collaborative website with links to data portals to enable end users to employ models and datasets to develop and evaluate LCLU and climate scenarios of particular interest. These data will benefit the Mobile Bay National Estuary Program in ongoing efforts to protect and restore the Fish River watershed and around Weeks Bay National Estuarine Research Reserve. The usefulness of data products and tools will be demonstrated at an end-user workshop.

  2. The Application of Remotely Sensed Data and Models to Benefit Conservation and Restoration Along the Northern Gulf of Mexico Coast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quattrochi, D. A.; Estes, M. G., Jr.; Al-Hamdan, M. Z.; Thom, R.; Woodruff, D.; Judd, C.; Ellis, J. T.; Swann, R.; Johnson, H., III

    2010-12-01

    New data, tools, and capabilities for decision making are significant needs in the northern Gulf of Mexico and other coastal areas. The goal of this project is to support NASA’s Earth Science Mission Directorate and its Applied Science Program and the Gulf of Mexico Alliance by producing and providing NASA data and products that will benefit decision making by coastal resource managers and other end users in the Gulf region. Data and research products are being developed to assist coastal resource managers adapt and plan for changing conditions by evaluating how climate changes and urban expansion will impact land cover/land use (LCLU), hydrodynamics, water properties, and shallow water habitats; to identify priority areas for conservation and restoration; and to distribute datasets to end-users and facilitating user interaction with models. The proposed host sites for data products are NOAA’s National Coastal Data Development Center Regional Ecosystem Data Management, and Mississippi-Alabama Habitat Database. Tools will be available on the Gulf of Mexico Regional Collaborative website with links to data portals to enable end users to employ models and datasets to develop and evaluate LCLU and climate scenarios of particular interest. These data will benefit the Mobile Bay National Estuary Program in ongoing efforts to protect and restore the Fish River watershed and around Weeks Bay National Estuarine Research Reserve. The usefulness of data products and tools will be demonstrated at an end-user workshop.

  3. Investigating the Role of Biogeochemical Processes in the Northern High Latitudes on Global Climate Feedbacks Using an Efficient Scalable Earth System Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jain, Atul K. [Univ. of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign, IL (United States)

    2016-09-14

    The overall objectives of this DOE funded project is to combine scientific and computational challenges in climate modeling by expanding our understanding of the biogeophysical-biogeochemical processes and their interactions in the northern high latitudes (NHLs) using an earth system modeling (ESM) approach, and by adopting an adaptive parallel runtime system in an ESM to achieve efficient and scalable climate simulations through improved load balancing algorithms.

  4. Evapotranspiration estimates from eddy covariance towers and hydrologic modeling in managed forests in Northern Wisconsin, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ge Sun; A. Noormets; J. Chen; S.G. McNulty

    2008-01-01

    Direct measurement of ecosystem evapotranspiration by the eddy covariance method and simulation modeling were employed to quantify the growing season (May–October) evapotranspiration (ET) of eight forest ecosystems representing a management gradient in dominant forest types and age classes in the Upper Great Lakes Region from 2002 to 2003. We measured net exchange of...

  5. Citizen Science and Open Data: a Model for Invasive Alien Plant Species in Kenya's Northern Rangelands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amirazodi, S.; Griffin, R.; Flores Cordova, A. I.; Ouko, E.; Omondi, S.; Mugo, R. M.; Farah, H.; Flores Cordova, A. I.; Adams, E. C.

    2017-12-01

    Invasive species in African savannas pose great threat to the native biodiversity and changes ecosystem functioning. In the forest sector, for instance Acacia species are important sources of fuel-wood, yet at the same time they have increased strain on water resources and shrunken forage spaces for both livestock and wildlife. In recently infested regions, invasive species can progress through the stages of introduction, establishment and dispersal to a full range. Currently there is much worldwide interest in predicting distributions of invasive species, and several organizations are faced with questions of whether and how to tackle such environmental challenges, or how to interpret predictions from the science community. Conservation practioners require mapped estimates of where species could persist in a given region, and this is associated to information about the biotope - i.e. the geographic location of the species' niche. The process of collecting species distribution data for identifying the potential distribution of the invasive species in the invaded ranges has become a challenge both in terms of resource and time allocation. This study highlights innovative approaches in crowdsourcing validation data in mapping and modelling invasive species (Acacia reficiens and Cactus) through involvement of the local communities. The general approach was to model the distribution of A. reficiens and Cactus (Opuntia Spp) using occurrence records from native range, then project the model into new regions to assess susceptibility to invasion using climatic and topographic environmental variables. The models performed better than random prediction (P 0.75.

  6. Comparisons of measured and modelled ozone deposition to forests in northern Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Touvinen, J. P.; Simpson, D.; Mikkelsen, Teis Nørgaard

    2001-01-01

    The performance of a new dry deposition module, developedfor the European-scale mapping and modelling of ozone flux to vegetation, was tested against micrometeorological ozone and water vapour flux measurements. The measurement data are for twoconiferous (Scots pine in Finland, Norway spruce...

  7. Fuel load modeling from mensuration attributes in temperate forests in northern Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maricela Morales-Soto; Marín Pompa-Garcia

    2013-01-01

    The study of fuels is an important factor in defining the vulnerability of ecosystems to forest fires. The aim of this study was to model a dead fuel load based on forest mensuration attributes from forest management inventories. A scatter plot analysis was performed and, from explanatory trends between the variables considered, correlation analysis was carried out...

  8. Development of allometric models for above and belowground biomass in swidden cultivation fallows of Northern Laos

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    McNicol, Iain M.; Berry, Nicholas J.; Bruun, Thilde Bech

    2015-01-01

    -transforming the data. Our models were subsequently applied to 12 nearby plots spanning a chronosequence of fallows to examine the impact of re-sprouting allometry on biomass estimation. Root biomass stocks were on average 58% higher after accounting for the allometry of resprouting trees, resulting in an average 9...

  9. Compartment-based hydrodynamics and water quality modeling of a northern Everglades wetland, Florida, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Hongqing; Meselhe, Ehab A.; Waldon, Michael G.; Harwell, Matthew C.; Chen, Chunfang

    2012-01-01

    The last remaining large remnant of softwater wetlands in the US Florida Everglades lies within the Arthur R. Marshall Loxahatchee National Wildlife Refuge. However, Refuge water quality today is impacted by pumped stormwater inflows to the eutrophic and mineral-enriched 100-km canal, which circumscribes the wetland. Optimal management is a challenge and requires scientifically based predictive tools to assess and forecast the impacts of water management on Refuge water quality. In this research, we developed a compartment-based numerical model of hydrodynamics and water quality for the Refuge. Using the numerical model, we examined the dynamics in stage, water depth, discharge from hydraulic structures along the canal, and exchange flow among canal and marsh compartments. We also investigated the transport of chloride, sulfate and total phosphorus from the canal to the marsh interior driven by hydraulic gradients as well as biological removal of sulfate and total phosphorus. The model was calibrated and validated using long-term stage and water quality data (1995-2007). Statistical analysis indicates that the model is capable of capturing the spatial (from canal to interior marsh) gradients of constituents across the Refuge. Simulations demonstrate that flow from the eutrophic and mineral-enriched canal impacts chloride and sulfate in the interior marsh. In contrast, total phosphorus in the interior marsh shows low sensitivity to intrusion and dispersive transport. We conducted a rainfall-driven scenario test in which the pumped inflow concentrations of chloride, sulfate and total phosphorus were equal to rainfall concentrations (wet deposition). This test shows that pumped inflow is the dominant factor responsible for the substantially increased chloride and sulfate concentrations in the interior marsh. Therefore, the present day Refuge should not be classified as solely a rainfall-driven or ombrotrophic wetland. The model provides an effective screening tool for

  10. Three-dimensional geologic framework modeling of faulted hydrostratigraphic units within the Edwards Aquifer, Northern Bexar County, Texas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pantea, Michael P.; Cole, James C.

    2004-01-01

    This report describes a digital, three-dimensional faulted hydrostratigraphic model constructed to represent the geologic framework of the Edwards aquifer system in the area of San Antonio, northern Bexar County, Texas. The model is based on mapped geologic relationships that reflect the complex structures of the Balcones fault zone, detailed lithologic descriptions and interpretations of about 40 principal wells (and qualified data from numerous other wells), and a conceptual model of the gross geometry of the Edwards Group units derived from prior interpretations of depositional environments and paleogeography. The digital model depicts the complicated intersections of numerous major and minor faults in the subsurface, as well as their individual and collective impacts on the continuity of the aquifer-forming units of the Edwards Group and the Georgetown Formation. The model allows for detailed examination of the extent of fault dislocation from place to place, and thus the extent to which the effective cross-sectional area of the aquifer is reduced by faulting. The model also depicts the internal hydrostratigraphic subdivisions of the Edwards aquifer, consisting of three major and eight subsidiary hydrogeologic units. This geologic framework model is useful for visualizing the geologic structures within the Balcones fault zone and the interactions of en-echelon fault strands and flexed connecting fault-relay ramps. The model also aids in visualizing the lateral connections between hydrostratigraphic units of relatively high and low permeability across the fault strands. Introduction The Edwards aquifer is the principal source of water for municipal, agricultural, industrial, and military uses by nearly 1.5 million inhabitants of the greater San Antonio, Texas, region (Hovorka and others, 1996; Sharp and Banner, 1997). Discharges from the Edwards aquifer also support local recreation and tourism industries at Barton, Comal, and San Marcos Springs located

  11. Modeling Culex tarsalis abundance on the northern Colorado front range using a landscape-level approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schurich, Jessica A; Kumar, Sunil; Eisen, Lars; Moore, Chester G

    2014-03-01

    Remote sensing and Geographic Information System (GIS) data can be used to identify larval mosquito habitats and predict species distribution and abundance across a landscape. An understanding of the landscape features that impact abundance and dispersal can then be applied operationally in mosquito control efforts to reduce the transmission of mosquito-borne pathogens. In an effort to better understand the effects of landscape heterogeneity on the abundance of the West Nile virus (WNV) vector Culex tarsalis, we determined associations between GIS-based environmental data at multiple spatial extents and monthly abundance of adult Cx. tarsalis in Larimer County and Weld County, CO. Mosquito data were collected from Centers for Disease Control and Prevention miniature light traps operated as part of local WNV surveillance efforts. Multiple regression models were developed for prediction of monthly Cx. tarsalis abundance for June, July, and August using 4 years of data collected over 2007-10. The models explained monthly adult mosquito abundance with accuracies ranging from 51-61% in Fort Collins and 57-88% in Loveland-Johnstown. Models derived using landscape-level predictors indicated that adult Cx. tarsalis abundance is negatively correlated with elevation. In this case, low-elevation areas likely more abundantly include habitats for Cx. tarsalis. Model output indicated that the perimeter of larval sites is a significant predictor of Cx. tarsalis abundance at a spatial extent of 500 m in Loveland-Johnstown in all months examined. The contribution of irrigated crops at a spatial extent of 500 m improved model fit in August in both Fort Collins and Loveland-Johnstown. These results emphasize the significance of irrigation and the manual control of water across the landscape to provide viable larval habitats for Cx. tarsalis in the study area. Results from multiple regression models can be applied operationally to identify areas of larval Cx. tarsalis production

  12. Modelling approach for the rainfall erosivity index in sub-humid urban areas in northern Algeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. Touaibia

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available This work presents an approach for storm water erosivity index modelling in the absence of measurement in an urban area, in a sub-humid climate. In torrential storms, floods, loaded with sediments, obstruct storm water drainage. With the aim of estimating the amount of sediment that can be deposited on a stretch of road, adjacent to the study area, the erosivity index is determined from a count of 744 rain showers recorded over a period of 19 years. The Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE of Wischmeier and Smith is applied, where only the index of erosivity is calculated; it is based on the intensity of the rain starting the process of erosion in the basin. Functional relations are required between this factor and the explanatory variables. A power type regression model is reached, making it possible to bring a decision-making aid in absences of measurements.

  13. Structural model of the Northern Latium volcanic area constrained by MT, gravity and aeromagnetic data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Gasparini

    1997-06-01

    Full Text Available The results of about 120 magnetotelluric soundings carried out in the Vulsini, Vico and Sabatini volcanic areas were modeled along with Bouguer and aeromagnetic anomalies to reconstruct a model of the structure of the shallow (less than 5 km of depth crust. The interpretations were constrained by the information gathered from the deep boreholes drilled for geothermal exploration. MT and aeromagnetic anomalies allow the depth to the top of the sedimentary basement and the thickness of the volcanic layer to be inferred. Gravity anomalies are strongly affected by the variations of morphology of the top of the sedimentary basement, consisting of a Tertiary flysch, and of the interface with the underlying Mesozoic carbonates. Gravity data have also been used to extrapolate the thickness of the neogenic unit indicated by some boreholes. There is no evidence for other important density and susceptibility heterogeneities and deeper sources of magnetic and/or gravity anomalies in all the surveyed area.

  14. Predictive modeling of slope deposits and comparisons of two small areas in Northern Germany

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shary, Peter A.; Sharaya, Larisa S.; Mitusov, Andrew V.

    2017-08-01

    Methods for correct quantitative comparison of several terrains are important in the development and use of quantitative landscape evolution models, and they need to introduce specific modeling parameters. We introduce such parameters and compare two small terrains with respect to the link slope-valley for the description of slope deposits (colluvium) in them. We show that colluvium accumulation in small areas cannot be described by linear models and thus introduce non-linear models. Two small areas, Perdoel (0.29 ha) and Bornhöved (3.2 ha), are studied. Slope deposits in the both are mainly in dry valleys, with a total thickness Mtotal up to 2.0 m in Perdoel and up to 1.2 m in Bornhöved. Parent materials are mainly Pleistocene sands aged 30 kyr BP. Exponential models of multiple regression that use a 1-m LiDAR DEM (digital elevation model) explained 70-93% of spatial variability in Mtotal. Parameters DH12 and DV12 of horizontal and vertical distances are introduced that permit to characterize and compare conditions of colluvium formation for various terrains. The study areas differ 3.7 times by the parameter DH12 that describes a horizontal distance from thalwegs at which Mtotal diminishes 2.72 times. DH12 is greater in Bornhöved (29.7 m) than in Perdoel (8.12 m). We relate this difference in DH12 to the distinction between types of the link slope-valley: a regional type if catchment area of a region outside a given small area plays an important role, and a local type when accumulation of colluvium from valley banks within a small area is of more importance. We argue that the link slope-valley is regional in Perdoel and local in Bornhöved. Peaks of colluvium thickness were found on thalwegs of three studied valleys by both direct measurements in a trench, and model surfaces of Mtotal. A hypothesis on the formation mechanism of such peaks is discussed. The parameter DV12 describes a vertical distance from a peak of colluvium thickness along valley bottom at

  15. Assessing sediment yield in Kalaya gauged watershed (Northern Morocco using GIS and SWAT model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hamza Briak

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available An efficient design for erosion-control structures of any watershed in the world is entrusted with the delicate forecasting of sediment yields. These outlook yields are usually inferred by extrapolations from past observations. Because runoff, as the transporting vehicle, is more closely correlated with sediment yields than any other variable. So, calibration as well as validation of process-based hydrological models are two major processes while estimating the sediment yield in watershed. The actual survey is fulfilled with the aim of developing a trustworthy hydrologic model simulating stream flow discharge and sediment concentration with least uncertainty among the parameters picked out for calibration so as to verify the effect of the scenarios on the spatial distribution of sediment yield (sediments transported from sub-basins to the main channel during the step of time. Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT, version 2012 model integrated with Geographic Information System (GIS, version 10.1 was used to simulate the stream flow and sediment concentration of Kalaya catchment situated in north of Morocco for the period from 1971 to 1993. Model calibration and validation were performed for monthly time periods using Sequential Uncertainty Fitting 2 (SUFI-2, version 2 within SWAT-CUP using 16 parameters. Our calibration outputs for monthly simulation for the period from 1976 to 1984 showed a good model performance for flow rates with NSE and PBIAS values of 0.76 and −11.80, respectively; also a good model performance for sediment concentration with NSE and PBIAS values of 0.69 and 7.12, respectively. Nonetheless, during validation period (1985–1993 for monthly time step, the NSE and PBIAS values were 0.67 and −14.44, respectively for flow rates and these statistical values were 0.70 and 15.51, respectively for sediment concentration; which also means a good model performance for both. Following calibration, the inclusive effect of each

  16. Reaction modeling of drainage quality in the Duluth Complex, northern Minnesota, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seal, Robert; Lapakko, Kim; Piatak, Nadine; Woodruff, Laurel G.

    2015-01-01

    Reaction modeling can be a valuable tool in predicting the long-term behavior of waste material if representative rate constants can be derived from long-term leaching tests or other approaches. Reaction modeling using the REACT program of the Geochemist’s Workbench was conducted to evaluate long-term drainage quality affected by disseminated Cu-Ni-(Co-)-PGM sulfide mineralization in the basal zone of the Duluth Complex where significant resources have been identified. Disseminated sulfide minerals, mostly pyrrhotite and Cu-Fe sulfides, are hosted by clinopyroxene-bearing troctolites. Carbonate minerals are scarce to non-existent. Long-term simulations of up to 20 years of weathering of tailings used two different sets of rate constants: one based on published laboratory single-mineral dissolution experiments, and one based on leaching experiments using bulk material from the Duluth Complex conducted by the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources (MNDNR). The simulations included only plagioclase, olivine, clinopyroxene, pyrrhotite, and water as starting phases. Dissolved oxygen concentrations were assumed to be in equilibrium with atmospheric oxygen. The simulations based on the published single-mineral rate constants predicted that pyrrhotite would be effectively exhausted in less than two years and pH would rise accordingly. In contrast, only 20 percent of the pyrrhotite was depleted after two years using the MNDNR rate constants. Predicted pyrrhotite depletion by the simulation based on the MNDNR rate constant matched well with published results of laboratory tests on tailings. Modeling long-term weathering of mine wastes also can provide important insights into secondary reactions that may influence the permeability of tailings and thereby affect weathering behavior. Both models predicted the precipitation of a variety of secondary phases including goethite, gibbsite, and clay (nontronite).

  17. Amplitude Analysis and Modeling of Regional Phases in PNE Profiles in Northern Eurasia and Seismic Regionalization

    Science.gov (United States)

    2006-06-30

    of these models is unrealistic because the Earth’s crust appears to be the most structurally and compositionally heterogeneous part of the planet ...segment is extracted (heavy dash) and scaled to fill the gap ( heav arrows). Scaling is performed in the g(p) domain, using a factor that varies linearly...Phys. Earth Planet . Interiors, 113, 11-24. Bonddr, I., and V. Ryaboy (1997). Regional travel-time tables for the Baltic Shield region, Technical

  18. Simulation modelling of the effects of oil spills on population dynamics of northern fur seals

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Reed, M.; French, D.P.; Calambokidis, J.; Cubbage, J.C. (Applied Science Associates, Inc., Narragansett, RI (USA) Cascadia Research Collective, Olympia, WA (USA))

    1989-12-01

    Models of population dynamics and migration were developed and combined with an oil spill simulation model to determine the effects of potential oil spills on the Pribilof Island fur seal (Callorhinus ursinus) population. In the population dynamics model, mortality of pups on land and juveniles up to 2 years of age is density-dependent, while that of older seals is age- and sex-specific and constant at all population sizes. Movement patterns of seals within the Bering Sea are functions of date, sexual status and age, conforming to probability distributions based on field observations of their movements and timing. Two simulations of hypothetical 10,000-barrel oil spills were performed. One occurs near Unimak Pass during the peak migration of pregnant females to the Pribilof rookeries, oiling 3% of the total female population. The other occurs near St. Paul Island during the pupping season, and oils 2-4% of the female population. By comparison, about 16% of females die from natural causes each year. Depending on the assumed oil-induced mortality rate in the range 25-100%, 'effective' recovery of the population from these spills (i.e. the number of years before the oil-affected population numbers were within 1% of the non-affected population numbers) took 0-25 years. 10 figs., 24 refs., 2 tabs.

  19. Model estimation of land-use effects on water levels of northern Prairie wetlands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voldseth, R.A.; Johnson, W.C.; Gilmanov, T.; Guntenspergen, G.R.; Millett, B.V.

    2007-01-01

    Wetlands of the Prairie Pothole Region exist in a matrix of grassland dominated by intensive pastoral and cultivation agriculture. Recent conservation management has emphasized the conversion of cultivated farmland and degraded pastures to intact grassland to improve upland nesting habitat. The consequences of changes in land-use cover that alter watershed processes have not been evaluated relative to their effect on the water budgets and vegetation dynamics of associated wetlands. We simulated the effect of upland agricultural practices on the water budget and vegetation of a semipermanent prairie wetland by modifying a previously published mathematical model (WETSIM). Watershed cover/land-use practices were categorized as unmanaged grassland (native grass, smooth brome), managed grassland (moderately heavily grazed, prescribed burned), cultivated crops (row crop, small grain), and alfalfa hayland. Model simulations showed that differing rates of evapotranspiration and runoff associated with different upland plant-cover categories in the surrounding catchment produced differences in wetland water budgets and linked ecological dynamics. Wetland water levels were highest and vegetation the most dynamic under the managed-grassland simulations, while water levels were the lowest and vegetation the least dynamic under the unmanaged-grassland simulations. The modeling results suggest that unmanaged grassland, often planted for waterfowl nesting, may produce the least favorable wetland conditions for birds, especially in drier regions of the Prairie Pothole Region. These results stand as hypotheses that urgently need to be verified with empirical data.

  20. Shallow Crustal Structure in the Northern Salton Trough, California: Insights from a Detailed 3-D Velocity Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ajala, R.; Persaud, P.; Stock, J. M.; Fuis, G. S.; Hole, J. A.; Goldman, M.; Scheirer, D. S.

    2017-12-01

    The Coachella Valley is the northern extent of the Gulf of California-Salton Trough. It contains the southernmost segment of the San Andreas Fault (SAF) for which a magnitude 7.8 earthquake rupture was modeled to help produce earthquake planning scenarios. However, discrepancies in ground motion and travel-time estimates from the current Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) velocity model of the Salton Trough highlight inaccuracies in its shallow velocity structure. An improved 3-D velocity model that better defines the shallow basin structure and enables the more accurate location of earthquakes and identification of faults is therefore essential for seismic hazard studies in this area. We used recordings of 126 explosive shots from the 2011 Salton Seismic Imaging Project (SSIP) to SSIP receivers and Southern California Seismic Network (SCSN) stations. A set of 48,105 P-wave travel time picks constituted the highest-quality input to a 3-D tomographic velocity inversion. To improve the ray coverage, we added network-determined first arrivals at SCSN stations from 39,998 recently relocated local earthquakes, selected to a maximum focal depth of 10 km, to develop a detailed 3-D P-wave velocity model for the Coachella Valley with 1-km grid spacing. Our velocity model shows good resolution ( 50 rays/cubic km) down to a minimum depth of 7 km. Depth slices from the velocity model reveal several interesting features. At shallow depths ( 3 km), we observe an elongated trough of low velocity, attributed to sediments, located subparallel to and a few km SW of the SAF, and a general velocity structure that mimics the surface geology of the area. The persistence of the low-velocity sediments to 5-km depth just north of the Salton Sea suggests that the underlying basement surface, shallower to the NW, dips SE, consistent with interpretation from gravity studies (Langenheim et al., 2005). On the western side of the Coachella Valley, we detect depth-restricted regions of

  1. Observations and regional modeling of aerosol optical properties, speciation and size distribution over Northern Africa and western Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Menut

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The aerosol speciation and size distribution is modeled during the summer 2013 and over a large area encompassing Africa, Mediterranean and western Europe. The modeled aerosol is compared to available measurements such as the AERONET aerosol optical depth (AOD and aerosol size distribution (ASD and the EMEP network for surface concentrations of particulate matter PM2.5, PM10 and inorganic species (nitrate, sulfate and ammonium. The main goal of this study is to quantify the model ability to realistically model the speciation and size distribution of the aerosol. Results first showed that the long-range transport pathways are well reproduced and mainly constituted by mineral dust: spatial correlation is  ≈  0.9 for AOD and Ångström exponent, when temporal correlations show that the day-to-day variability is more difficult to reproduce. Over Europe, PM2.5 and PM10 have a mean temporal correlation of  ≈  0.4 but the lowest spatial correlation ( ≈  0.25 and 0.62, respectively, showing that the fine particles are not well localized or transported. Being short-lived species, the uncertainties on meteorology and emissions induce these lowest scores. However, time series of PM2.5 with the speciation show a good agreement between model and measurements and are useful for discriminating the aerosol composition. Using a classification from the south (Africa to the north (northern Europe, it is shown that mineral dust relative mass contribution decreases from 50 to 10 % when nitrate increases from 0 to 20 % and all other species, sulfate, sea salt, ammonium, elemental carbon, primary organic matter, are constant. The secondary organic aerosol contribution is between 10 and 20 % with a maximum at the latitude of the Mediterranean Sea (Spanish stations. For inorganic species, it is shown that nitrate, sulfate and ammonium have a mean temporal correlation of 0.25, 0.37 and 0.17, respectively. The spatial correlation is better (0

  2. Geophysical constraints on Rio Grande rift structure and stratigraphy from magnetotelluric models and borehole resistivity logs, northern New Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriguez, Brian D.; Sawyer, David A.; Hudson, Mark R.; Grauch, V.J.S.

    2013-01-01

    Two- and three-dimensional electrical resistivity models derived from the magnetotelluric method were interpreted to provide more accurate hydrogeologic parameters for the Albuquerque and Española Basins. Analysis and interpretation of the resistivity models are aided by regional borehole resistivity data. Examination of the magnetotelluric response of hypothetical stratigraphic cases using resistivity characterizations from the borehole data elucidates two scenarios where the magnetotelluric method provides the strongest constraints. In the first scenario, the magnetotelluric method constrains the thickness of extensive volcanic cover, the underlying thickness of coarser-grained facies of buried Santa Fe Group sediments, and the depth to Precambrian basement or overlying Pennsylvanian limestones. In the second scenario, in the absence of volcanic cover, the magnetotelluric method constrains the thickness of coarser-grained facies of buried Santa Fe Group sediments and the depth to Precambrian basement or overlying Pennsylvanian limestones. Magnetotelluric surveys provide additional constraints on the relative positions of basement rocks and the thicknesses of Paleozoic, Mesozoic, and Tertiary sedimentary rocks in the region of the Albuquerque and Española Basins. The northern extent of a basement high beneath the Cerros del Rio volcanic field is delineated. Our results also reveal that the largest offset of the Hubbell Spring fault zone is located 5 km west of the exposed scarp. By correlating our resistivity models with surface geology and the deeper stratigraphic horizons using deep well log data, we are able to identify which of the resistivity variations in the upper 2 km belong to the upper Santa Fe Group sediment

  3. Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) and Streamflow Response to Spatially Distributed Precipitation in Two Large Watersheds in Northern California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dhakal, A. S.; Adera, S.; Niswonger, R. G.; Gardner, M.

    2016-12-01

    The ability of the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) to predict peak intensity, peak timing, base flow, and volume of streamflow was examined in Arroyo Hondo (180 km2) and Upper Alameda Creek (85 km2), two sub-watersheds of the Alameda Creek watershed in Northern California. Rainfall-runoff volume ratios vary widely, and can exceed 0.85 during mid-winter flashy rainstorm events. Due to dry antecedent soil moisture conditions, the first storms of the hydrologic year often produce smaller rainfall-runoff volume ratios. Runoff response in this watershed is highly hysteretic; large precipitation events are required to generate runoff following a 4-week period without precipitation. After about 150 mm of cumulative rainfall, streamflow responds quickly to subsequent storms, with variations depending on rainstorm intensity. Inputs to PRMS included precipitation, temperature, topography, vegetation, soils, and land cover data. The data was prepared for input into PRMS using a suite of data processing Python scripts written by the Desert Research Institute and U.S. Geological Survey. PRMS was calibrated by comparing simulated streamflow to measured streamflow at a daily time step during the period 1995 - 2014. The PRMS model is being used to better understand the different patterns of streamflow observed in the Alameda Creek watershed. Although Arroyo Hondo receives more rainfall than Upper Alameda Creek, it is not clear whether the differences in streamflow patterns are a result of differences in rainfall or other variables, such as geology, slope and aspect. We investigate the ability of PRMS to simulate daily streamflow in the two sub-watersheds for a variety of antecedent soil moisture conditions and rainfall intensities. After successful simulation of watershed runoff processes, the model will be expanded using GSFLOW to simulate integrated surface water and groundwater to support water resources planning and management in the Alameda Creek watershed.

  4. A regional climate model for northern Europe: model description and results from the downscaling of two GCM control simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rummukainen, M.; Räisänen, J.; Bringfelt, B.; Ullerstig, A.; Omstedt, A.; Willén, U.; Hansson, U.; Jones, C.

    This work presents a regional climate model, the Rossby Centre regional Atmospheric model (RCA1), recently developed from the High Resolution Limited Area Model (HIRLAM). The changes in the HIRLAM parametrizations, necessary for climate-length integrations, are described. A regional Baltic Sea ocean model and a modeling system for the Nordic inland lake systems have been coupled with RCA1. The coupled system has been used to downscale 10-year time slices from two different general circulation model (GCM) simulations to provide high-resolution regional interpretation of large-scale modeling. A selection of the results from the control runs, i.e. the present-day climate simulations, are presented: large-scale free atmospheric fields, the surface temperature and precipitation results and results for the on-line simulated regional ocean and lake surface climates. The regional model modifies the surface climate description compared to the GCM simulations, but it is also substantially affected by the biases in the GCM simulations. The regional model also improves the representation of the regional ocean and the inland lakes, compared to the GCM results.

  5. A regional climate model for northern Europe: model description and results from the downscaling of two GCM control simulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rummukainen, M.; Raeisaenen, J.; Bringfelt, B.; Ullerstig, A.; Omstedt, A.; Willen, U.; Hansson, U.; Jones, C. [Rossby Centre, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Inst., Norrkoeping (Sweden)

    2001-03-01

    This work presents a regional climate model, the Rossby Centre regional Atmospheric model (RCA1), recently developed from the High Resolution Limited Area Model (HIRLAM). The changes in the HIRLAM parametrizations, necessary for climate-length integrations, are described. A regional Baltic Sea ocean model and a modeling system for the Nordic inland lake systems have been coupled with RCA1. The coupled system has been used to downscale 10-year time slices from two different general circulation model (GCM) simulations to provide high-resolution regional interpretation of large-scale modeling. A selection of the results from the control runs, i.e. the present-day climate simulations, are presented: large-scale free atmospheric fields, the surface temperature and precipitation results and results for the on-line simulated regional ocean and lake surface climates. The regional model modifies the surface climate description compared to the GCM simulations, but it is also substantially affected by the biases in the GCM simulations. The regional model also improves the representation of the regional ocean and the inland lakes, compared to the GCM results. (orig.)

  6. Population parameters and dynamic pool models of commercial fishes in the Beibu Gulf, northern South China Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xuehui; Qiu, Yongsong; Du, Feiyan; Lin, Zhaojin; Sun, Dianrong; Huang, Shuolin

    2012-01-01

    Length-frequency data of eight commercial fish species in the Beibu Gulf (Golf of Tonkin), northern South China Sea, were collected during 2006-2007. Length-weight relationships and growth and mortality parameters were analyzed using FiSAT II software. Five species had isometric growth, two species had negative allometric growth, and one species had positive allometric growth. Overall, the exploitation rates of the eight species were lower in 2006-2007 than in 1997-1999: for four species ( Saurida tumbil, Saurida undosquamis, Argyrosomus macrocephalus, and Nemipterus virgatus) it was lower in 2006-2007 than in 1997-1999, for two species ( Parargyrops edita and Trichiurus haumela) it remained the same, and for the other two species ( Trachurus japonicus and Decapterus maruadsi) it was higher in 2006-2007 than in 1997-1999. The exploitation rates might have declined because of the decline in fishing intensity caused by high crude oil prices. The optimum exploitation rate, estimated using Beverton-Holt dynamic pool models, indicated that although fishes in the Beibu Gulf could sustain high exploitation rates, the under-size fishes at first capture resulted in low yields. To increase the yield per recruitment, it is more effective to increase the size at first capture than to control fishing effort.

  7. Challenges in Modeling Debris-Flow Initiation during the Exceptional September 2013 Northern Colorado Front Range Rainstorm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baum, R. L.; Coe, J. A.; Godt, J.; Kean, J. W.

    2014-12-01

    Heavy rainfall during 9 - 13 September 2013 induced about 1100 debris flows in the foothills and mountains of the northern Colorado Front Range. Eye-witness accounts and fire-department records put the times of greatest landslide activity during the times of heaviest rainfall on September 12 - 13. Antecedent soil moisture was relatively low, particularly at elevations below 2250 m where many of the debris flows occurred, based on 45 - 125 mm of summer precipitation and absence of rainfall for about 2 weeks before the storm. Mapping from post-event imagery and field observations indicated that most debris flows initiated as small, shallow landslides. These landslides typically formed in colluvium that consisted of angular clasts in a sandy or silty matrix, depending on the nature of the parent bedrock. Weathered bedrock was partially exposed in the basal surfaces of many of the shallow source areas at depths ranging from 0.2 to 5 m, and source areas commonly occupied less than 500 m2. Although 49% of the source areas occurred in swales and 3 % in channels, where convergent flow might have contributed to pore-pressure build up during the rainfall, 48% of the source areas occurred on open slopes. Upslope contributing areas of most landslides (58%) were small (physical-properties variability. The low-moisture initial conditions require consideration of unsaturated zone effects. Ongoing fieldwork and computational modeling are aimed at addressing these challenges related to initiation of the September 2013 debris flows.

  8. Modeled connectivity between northern rock sole (Lepidopsetta polyxystra) spawning and nursery areas in the eastern Bering Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooper, D. W.; Duffy-Anderson, J. T.; Stockhausen, W. T.; Cheng, W.

    2013-11-01

    Connectivity between spawning and potential nursery areas of northern rock sole, Lepidopsetta polyxystra, in the eastern Bering Sea was examined using an individual-based biophysical-coupled model. Presumed spawning areas were identified using historical field-collected ichthyoplankton data, and nursery habitats were characterized based on previously described settlement areas. Simulated larvae were released from spawning areas near the Pribilof Islands, south of the Pribilof Islands along the outer continental shelf, on the north side of the Alaska Peninsula, and in the Gulf of Alaska south of Unimak Island. Simulated larvae were transported along two general pathways: 1) northwards along the outer continental shelf from Unimak Island towards the Pribilof Islands and further north offshore of mainland Alaska, and 2) eastward along the Alaska Peninsula. At the end of the 2-month simulation, drift pathways placed pre-settlement stage larvae offshore of known nursery areas of older juveniles near mainland Alaska, consistent with a hypothesis that initial settlement may be followed by substantial post-settlement redistribution.

  9. Stochastic landslide vulnerability modeling in space and time in a part of the northern Himalayas, India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Das, Iswar; Kumar, Gaurav; Stein, Alfred; Bagchi, Arunabha; Dadhwal, Vinay K

    2011-07-01

    Little is known about the quantitative vulnerability analysis to landslides as not many attempts have been made to assess it comprehensively. This study assesses the spatio-temporal vulnerability of elements at risk to landslides in a stochastic framework. The study includes buildings, persons inside buildings, and traffic as elements at risk to landslides. Building vulnerability is the expected damage and depends on the position of a building with respect to the landslide hazard at a given time. Population and vehicle vulnerability are the expected death toll in a building and vehicle damage in space and time respectively. The study was carried out in a road corridor in the Indian Himalayas that is highly susceptible to landslides. Results showed that 26% of the buildings fall in the high and very high vulnerability categories. Population vulnerability inside buildings showed a value >0.75 during 0800 to 1000 hours and 1600 to 1800 hours in more buildings that other times of the day. It was also observed in the study region that the vulnerability of vehicle is above 0.6 in half of the road stretches during 0800 hours to 1000 hours and 1600 to 1800 hours due to high traffic density on the road section. From this study, we conclude that the vulnerability of an element at risk to landslide is a space and time event, and can be quantified using stochastic modeling. Therefore, the stochastic vulnerability modeling forms the basis for a quantitative landslide risk analysis and assessment.

  10. Distributed modelling of climate change impacts on snow sublimation in Northern Mongolia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Menzel

    2009-08-01

    Full Text Available Sublimation of snow is an important factor of the hydrological cycle in Mongolia and is likely to increase according to future climate projections. In this study the hydrological model TRAIN was used to assess spatially distributed current and future sublimation rates based on interpolated daily data of precipitation, air temperature, air humidity, wind speed and solar radiation. An automated procedure for the interpolation of the input data is provided. Depending on the meteorological parameter and the data availability for the individual days, the most appropriate interpolation method is chosen automatically from inverse distance weighting, Ordinary Least Squares interpolation, Ordinary or Universal Kriging. Depending on elevation simulated annual sublimation in the period 1986–2006 was 23 to 35 mm, i.e. approximately 80% of total snowfall. Moreover, future climate projections for 2071–2100 of ECHAM5 and HadCM3, based on the A1B emission scenario of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, were analysed with TRAIN. In the case of ECHAM5 simulated sublimation increases by up to 17% (26...41 mm while it remains at the same level for HadCM3 (24...34 mm. The differences are mainly due to a distinct increase in winter precipitation for ECHAM5. Simulated changes of the all-season hydrological conditions, e.g. the sublimation-to-precipitation ratio, were ambiguous due to diverse precipitation patterns derived by the global circulation models.

  11. Evaluation of evapotranspiration methods for model validation in a semi-arid watershed in northern China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Schneider

    2007-05-01

    Full Text Available This study evaluates the performance of four evapotranspiration methods (Priestley-Taylor, Penman-Monteith, Hargreaves and Makkink of differing complexity in a semi-arid environment in north China. The results are compared to observed water vapour fluxes derived from eddy flux measurements. The analysis became necessary after discharge simulations using an automatically calibrated version of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT failed to reproduce runoff measurements. Although the study area receives most of the annual rainfall during the vegetation period, high temperatures can cause water scarcity. We investigate which evapotranspiration method is most suitable for this environment and whether the model performance of SWAT can be improved with the most adequate evapotranspiration method.

    The evapotranspiration models were tested in two consecutive years with different rainfall amounts. In general, the simple Hargreaves and Makkink equations outmatch the more complex Priestley-Taylor and Penman-Monteith methods, although their performance depended on water availability. Effects on the quality of SWAT runoff simulations, however, remained minor. Although evapotranspiration is an important process in the hydrology of this steppe environment, our analysis indicates that other driving factors still need to be identified to improve SWAT simulations.

  12. Rifting in heterogeneous lithosphere inferences from numerical modeling of the northern North Sea and the Oslo Graben.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pascal Candas, C.; Cloetingh, S.A.P.L.

    2002-01-01

    Permian rifting and magmatism are widely documented across NW Europe. The different Permian basins often display contrasting structural styles and evolved in lithospheric domains with contrasting past evolution and contrasting thermotectonic ages. In particular, the Oslo Graben and the northern

  13. Modelling atmospheric transport of α-hexachlorocyclohexane in the Northern Hemispherewith a 3-D dynamical model: DEHM-POP

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. M. Hansen

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available The Danish Eulerian Hemispheric Model (DEHM is a 3-D dynamical atmospheric transport model originally developed to describe the atmospheric transport of sulphur into the Arctic. A new version of the model, DEHM-POP, developed to study the atmospheric transport and environmental fate of persistent organic pollutants (POPs is presented. During environmental cycling, POPs can be deposited and re-emitted several times before reaching a final destination. A description of the exchange processes between the land/ocean surfaces and the atmosphere is included in the model to account for this multi-hop transport. The α-isomer of the pesticide hexachlorocyclohexane (α-HCH is used as tracer in the model development. The structure of the model and processes included are described in detail. The results from a model simulation showing the atmospheric transport for the years 1991 to 1998 are presented and evaluated against measurements. The annual averaged atmospheric concentration of α-HCH for the 1990s is well described by the model; however, the shorter-term average concentration for most of the stations is not well captured. This indicates that the present simple surface description needs to be refined to get a better description of the air-surface exchange processes of POPs.

  14. Evaluation of a regional mineral dust model over Northern Africa, Southern Europe and Middle East with AERONET data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Basart, S.; Pérez, C.; Cuevas, E.; Baldasano, J. M.

    2009-04-01

    A variety of regional and global models of the dust aerosol cycle have been developed since early 1990s. Dust models are essential to complement dust-related observations, understand the dust processes and predict the impact of dust on surface level PM concentrations. Dust generation and the parameterization of its deposition processes shows a high variability on spatial and temporal scales. It responds, in a non-linear way, to a variety of environmental factors, such as soil moisture content, the type of surface cover or surface atmospheric turbulence. Thus the modelling of this very complex process is a challenge. DREAM (Dust Regional Atmospheric Model; Nickovic et al., 2001) provides operational dust forecasts for Northern Africa, Europe and Middle East, as well as for the East-Asia regions. DREAM is operated and further developed in the Barcelona Supercomputing Center. DREAM is fully inserted as one of the governing equations in the NCEP/Eta atmospheric model and simulates all major processes of the atmospheric dust cycle. In order to implement new model versions for operational applications there is a need for extensive checking and validation against real observations. The present study focuses on the evaluation of forecasting capacity of the new version of DREAM by means of a model-to-observation comparison of the Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) over Northern Africa, Southern Europe and Middle East for one year. The model provides 72h forecasts initialized at 12UTC of each day with outputs every 1 hour at horizontal resolution of about 1/3° and 24 z-vertical layers in the troposphere. Comparisons against 47 selected AERONET sites are used. Eight size bins between 0.1 and 10 µm are considered, and dust-radiation interactions are included (Pérez et al., 2006). Wet deposition scheme has been also improved. The simulation has been performed over one year (2004); statistics and time series for the model outputs and AERONET data are used to evaluate the ability of

  15. Estimating surface pCO2 in the northern Gulf of Mexico: Which remote sensing model to use?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Shuangling; Hu, Chuanmin; Cai, Wei-Jun; Yang, Bo

    2017-12-01

    Various approaches and models have been proposed to remotely estimate surface pCO2 in the ocean, with variable performance as they were designed for different environments. Among these, a recently developed mechanistic semi-analytical approach (MeSAA) has shown its advantage for its explicit inclusion of physical and biological forcing in the model, yet its general applicability is unknown. Here, with extensive in situ measurements of surface pCO2, the MeSAA, originally developed for the summertime East China Sea, was tested in the northern Gulf of Mexico (GOM) where river plumes dominate water's biogeochemical properties during summer. Specifically, the MeSAA-predicted surface pCO2 was estimated by combining the dominating effects of thermodynamics, river-ocean mixing and biological activities on surface pCO2. Firstly, effects of thermodynamics and river-ocean mixing (pCO2@Hmixing) were estimated with a two-endmember mixing model, assuming conservative mixing. Secondly, pCO2 variations caused by biological activities (ΔpCO2@bio) was determined through an empirical relationship between sea surface temperature (SST)-normalized pCO2 and MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) 8-day composite chlorophyll concentration (CHL). The MeSAA-modeled pCO2 (sum of pCO2@Hmixing and ΔpCO2@bio) was compared with the field-measured pCO2. The Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) was 22.94 μatm (5.91%), with coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.25, mean bias (MB) of - 0.23 μatm and mean ratio (MR) of 1.001, for pCO2 ranging between 316 and 452 μatm. To improve the model performance, a locally tuned MeSAA was developed through the use of a locally tuned ΔpCO2@bio term. A multi-variate empirical regression model was also developed using the same dataset. Both the locally tuned MeSAA and the regression models showed improved performance comparing to the original MeSAA, with R2 of 0.78 and 0.84, RMSE of 12.36 μatm (3.14%) and 10.66 μatm (2.68%), MB of 0.00 μatm and - 0

  16. northern Tanzania

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Department of Zoology and Marine Biology, University of Dar es Salaam,. P O Box 35064, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania ... National Parks and neighbouring villages in northern Tanzania between 1993 and l996 (Kabigumila 1998a). Most of ..... International Congress ofChelonian Conservation. SOPTOM,. Gonfaron France. pp: ...

  17. Crustal Deformation in the Northern Andes - New GPS Velocity Field and "Broken Indentor" Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kellogg, J. N.; Mora-Páez, H.; Freymueller, J. T.

    2017-12-01

    We present a new precise velocity field for northwestern South America and the southwest Caribbean based on GPS CORS (Continuously Operating Reference Stations) in Panama (ACP and COCONet) and Colombia (GeoRED) with a minimum of 2.5 years of observations. This paper presents the first comprehensive model of North Andean block (NAB) motion. We estimate that the NAB is moving to the northeast at a rate of 8.6 mm/yr. The NAB vector can be resolved into a margin-parallel (035°) component of 8.1 mm/yr rigid "escape" and a margin-normal (125°) component of 4.3 mm/yr. The margin-normal shortening of only 4.3 mm/yr in the Eastern Cordillera of Colombia is surprising in view of paleobotanical, fission-track, and seismic reflection data that suggest rapid uplift (7 km) and shortening (120 km) in the last 10 Ma. We present a "broken indenter" model for the Panama-Choco arc, in which the Choco arc has been recently accreted to the NAB, resulting in a rapid decrease in shortening in the Eastern Cordillera. The Panama arc is colliding eastward with the NAB at approximately 16-17 mm/yr, and the Panama-Choco collision may have been responsible for much of the uplift of the Eastern Cordillera. The present on-going collision poses a major earthquake hazard from the Panama-Colombia border to Medellin, Colombia. Since the northeastward margin-parallel "escape" rate is now greater than the rate of shortening in the Eastern Cordillera, northeast trending right-lateral strike-slip faulting is the primary seismic hazard for the 8 million inhabitants of the city of Bogota. There continues to be a high risk of a great mega-subduction zone earthquake in southern Colombia from the Ecuador-Colombia trench. Trench earthquakes have only released a fraction of the energy accumulated in the trench since the great 1906 earthquake, and interseismic strain is accumulating rapidly as far north as Tumaco.

  18. Geomagnetic activity at Northern Hemisphere's mid-latitude ground stations: How much can be explained using TS05 model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castillo, Yvelice; Pais, Maria Alexandra; Fernandes, João; Ribeiro, Paulo; Morozova, Anna L.; Pinheiro, Fernando J. G.

    2017-12-01

    For the 2007 to 2014 period, we use a statistical approach to evaluate the performance of Tsyganenko and Sitnov [2005] semi-empirical model (TS05) in estimating the magnetospheric transient signal observed at four Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude ground stations: Coimbra, Portugal; Panagyurishte, Bulgary; Novosibirsk, Russia and Boulder, USA. Using hourly mean data, we find that the TS05 performance is clearly better for the X (North-South) than for the Y (East-West) field components and for more geomagnetically active days as determined by local K-indices. In ∼ 50% (X) and ∼ 30% (Y) of the total number of geomagnetically active days, correlation values yield r ≥ 0.7. During more quiet conditions, only ∼ 30% (X) and ∼ 15% (Y) of the number of analyzed days yield r ≥ 0.7. We compute separate contributions from different magnetospheric currents to data time variability and to signal magnitude. During more active days, all tail, symmetric ring and partial ring currents contribute to the time variability of X while the partial ring and field aligned currents contribute most to the time variability of Y. The tail and symmetric ring currents are main contributors to the magnitude of X. In the best case estimations when r ≥ 0.7, remaining differences between observations and TS05 predictions could be explained by global induction in the Earth's upper layers and crustal magnetization. The closing of field aligned currents through the Earth's center in the TS05 model seems to be mainly affecting the Y magnetospheric field predictions.

  19. GPS horizontal deformation model in the southern region of the Iberian Peninsula and northern Africa (SPINA)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rosado Moscoso, B.; Fernández-Ros, A.; Jiménez Jiménez, A.; Berrocoso Domínguez, M.

    2017-01-01

    Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS), and in particular Global Positioning System (GPS) technology provides a powerful tool for studying geodynamic processes. As a consequence of GPS studies, it is now possible to analyze the interaction between tectonic plates in order to evaluate and establish the characteristics of their boundaries. In this study, our main interest is to focus on the time series analysis obtained from observations of GNSS-GPS satellites. Each GPS observation session provides topocentric geodetic coordinates (east, north, elevation) of the permanent stations that constitute the geodetic network established for this purpose. This paper shows a detailed topocentric coordinate time-series study for sites belonging to what we call the SPINA network, which stands for south of the Iberian Peninsula, north of Africa region. The series under study are processed by techniques of relative positioning with respect to the IGS (International GNSS Service) reference station located in Villafranca. These times series have been analyzed using filter processes, harmonic adjustments and wavelets. A surface velocity field is derived from the time series of daily solutions for each station, whose observations span 8 years or longer. This allows us to obtain a horizontal displacement model to show the regional geodynamic main characteristics. [es

  20. Tall Tower Wind Energy Monitoring and Numerical Model Validation in Northern Nevada

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Koracin, D. [Desert Research Inst. (DRI), Las Vegas, NV (United States); Kaplan, M. [Desert Research Inst. (DRI), Las Vegas, NV (United States); Smith, C. [Desert Research Inst. (DRI), Las Vegas, NV (United States); McCurdy, G. [Desert Research Inst. (DRI), Las Vegas, NV (United States); Wolf, A. [Desert Research Inst. (DRI), Las Vegas, NV (United States); McCord, T. [Desert Research Inst. (DRI), Las Vegas, NV (United States); King, K. [Desert Research Inst. (DRI), Las Vegas, NV (United States); Belu, R. [Drexel Univ., Philadelphia, PA (United States); Horvath, K. [Croatian Meteorological and Hydrological Service, Zagreb (Croatia)

    2015-10-01

    The main objectives of this project were to conduct a tall-tower and sodar field campaign in complex terrain, investigate wind properties relevant to wind energy assessment, and evaluate high-resolution models with fixed and adaptive grid structures. Two 60-m towers at Virginia Peak ridges near Washoe Valley, Nevada, were instrumented with cup and vane anemometers as well as sonic anemometers, and an acoustic sounder (hereafter sodar) was installed near one of the towers. The towers were located 2,700 m apart with a vertical distance of 140 m elevation between their bases. Each tower had a downhill exposure of rolling complex terrain, with the nearby valley floor 3,200 m to the west and 800 m below the summit. Cup anemometers were installed at both towers at 20, 40, and 60 m, wind vanes at 20 and 60 m, and sonic anemometers at 20 and 60 m. The sodar measurements were nominally provided every 10 m in vertical distance from 40 to 200 m with the quality of the data generally decreasing with height. Surface air temperature, atmospheric pressure, and radiation measurements were conducted at 1.5 m AGL at both of the towers. Although the plan was to conduct a 1-year period of data collection, we extended the period (October 5, 2012 through February 24, 2014) to cover for possible data loss from instrument or communication problems. We also present a preliminary analysis of the towers and sodar data, including a detailed inventory of available and missing data as well as outliers. The analysis additionally includes calculation of the Weibull parameters, turbulence intensity, and initial computation of wind power density at various heights.

  1. Pan-Arctic TV Series on Inuit wellness: a northern model of communication for social change?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Rhonda; Morales, Robin; Leavitt, Doreen; Carry, Catherine; Kinnon, Dianne; Rideout, Denise; Clarida, Kath

    2011-06-01

    This paper provides highlights of a utilization-focused evaluation of a collaborative Pan-Arctic Inuit Wellness TV Series that was broadcast live in Alaska and Canada in May 2009. This International Polar Year (IPY) communication and outreach project intended to (1) share information on International Polar Year research progress, disseminate findings and explore questions with Inuit in Alaska, Canada and Greenland; (2) provide a forum for Inuit in Alaska, Canada and Greenland to showcase innovative health and wellness projects; (3) ensure Inuit youth and adult engagement throughout; and (4) document and reflect on the overall experience for the purposes of developing and "testing" a participatory communication model. Utilization-focused formative evaluation of the project, with a focus on overall objectives, key messages and lessons learned to facilitate program improvement. Participant observation, surveys, key informant interviews, document review and website tracking. Promising community programs related to 3 themes - men's wellness, maternity care and youth resilience - in diverse circumpolar regions were highlighted, as were current and stillevolving findings from ongoing Arctic research. Multiple media methods were used to effectively deliver and receive key messages determined by both community and academic experts. Local capacity and new regional networks were strengthened. Evidence-based resources for health education and community action were archived in digital formats (websites and DVDs), increasing accessibility to otherwise isolated individuals and remote communities. The Pan-Arctic Inuit Wellness TV Series was an innovative, multi-dimensional communication project that raised both interest and awareness about complex health conditions in the North and stimulated community dialogue and potential for increased collaborative action. Consistent with a communication for social change approach, the project created new networks, increased motivation to act

  2. Rainfall model investigation and scenario analyses of the effect of government reforestation policy on seasonal rainfalls: A case study from Northern Thailand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duangdai, Eakkapong; Likasiri, Chulin

    2017-03-01

    In this work, 4 models for predicting rainfall amounts are investigated and compared using Northern Thailand's seasonal rainfall data for 1973-2008. Two models, global temperature, forest area and seasonal rainfall (TFR) and modified TFR based on a system of differential equations, give the relationships between global temperature, Northern Thailand's forest cover and seasonal rainfalls in the region. The other two models studied are time series and Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) models. All models are validated using the k-fold cross validation method with the resulting errors being 0.971233, 0.740891, 2.376415 and 2.430891 for time series, ARMA, TFR and modified TFR models, respectively. Under Business as Usual (BaU) scenario, seasonal rainfalls in Northern Thailand are projected through the year 2020 using all 4 models. TFR and modified TFR models are also used to further analyze how global temperature rise and government reforestation policy affect seasonal rainfalls in the region. Rainfall projections obtained via the two models are also compared with those from the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) under IS92a scenario. Results obtained through a mathematical model for global temperature, forest area and seasonal rainfall show that the higher the forest cover, the less fluctuation there is between rainy-season and summer rainfalls. Moreover, growth in forest cover also correlates with an increase in summer rainfalls. An investigation into the relationship between main crop productions and rainfalls in dry and rainy seasons indicates that if the rainy-season rainfall is high, that year's main-crop rice production will decrease but the second-crop rice, maize, sugarcane and soybean productions will increase in the following year.

  3. A model study of the Copper River plume and its effect on the northern Gulf of Alaska (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xue, H.; Wang, Y.; Chai, F.; Chao, Y.

    2013-12-01

    Using a three-level nested Regional Ocean Modeling System coupled with the Carbon, Silicate, Nitrogen Ecosystem model, this study illustrated the seasonal evolution of the Copper River (CR) plume and how it influences the along- and across-shore transport in the northern Gulf of Alaska (NGoA). A passive tracer was introduced in the model to delineate the growth and decay of the plume and to diagnose the spread of the CR discharge in the shelf, into Prince William Sound (PWS) and offshore. Furthermore, a model experiment with doubled discharge was conducted to investigate potential impacts of accelerated glacier melt in future climate scenarios. The 2010 and 2011 simulation revealed that the upstream (eastward) transport in the NGoA is almost nil. About 60% of the passive tracer released in the CR discharge is transported southwestward on the shelf, while another one third goes into PWS with close to 60% of which exiting PWS to the shelf from Montague Strait. The rest few percent is transported across the shelf break and exported to the GoA basin. The downstream transport and the transport into PWS are regulated by the downwelling favorable wind, while the offshore transport is related to the accumulation of plume water in the shelf, frontal instability and the Alaskan Stream. The CR plume appears to decay much faster than its formation. It takes weeks for the buoyancy to accumulate so that a bulge forms outside of the CR estuary. If the wind remains calm as in the summer of 2010, the bulge continues growing to trigger frontal instability. These frontal features can interact with the Alaskan Stream to send intense transport pulses across the shelf break. Alternatively as in 2011, a downwelling favorable wind event in early August (near the peak discharge) accelerates the southwestward coastal current and produces an enormous downstream transport event. Both processes result in fast drains of the buoyancy and the plume content, thereby rapid disintegration of the

  4. The post-opium scenario and rubber in northern Laos: Alternative Western and Chinese models of development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohen, Paul T

    2009-09-01

    In the past few years rubber planting has spread rapidly throughout northern Laos, especially in Luang Namtha province that borders China. The impetus for this boom has come partly from the spiralling demand for rubber in China (now the world's largest rubber consumer), the high world prices for rubber, and China's promotion of overseas investment through its opium-replacement policy. These economic factors have converged with the desperate need of impoverished highlanders in northern Laos to replace opium as a cash crop as a consequence of a recent opium-eradication campaign and inadequate alternative development. This paper draws upon ethnographic and agro-economic research in northern Laos and neighbouring regions and reports of international development organisations operating in Laos. The rubber boom in northern Laos represents a fundamental clash between Western drug-oriented alternative development, on the one hand, and China's national economic strategies abroad and investment-led narcotics policy, on the other. China's opium-replacement policy has contributed to a type of unregulated frontier capitalism with socio-economic and environmental effects that threaten the principles and goals of alternative development and even to marginalise the role international development organisations in northern Laos.

  5. Evaluation of trail-cameras for analyzing the diet of nesting raptors using the Northern Goshawk as a model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gonzalo García-Salgado

    Full Text Available Diet studies present numerous methodological challenges. We evaluated the usefulness of commercially available trail-cameras for analyzing the diet of Northern Goshawks (Accipiter gentilis as a model for nesting raptors during the period 2007-2011. We compared diet estimates obtained by direct camera monitoring of 80 nests with four indirect analyses of prey remains collected from the nests and surroundings (pellets, bones, feather-and-hair remains, and feather-hair-and-bone remains combined. In addition, we evaluated the performance of the trail-cameras and whether camera monitoring affected Goshawk behavior. The sensitivity of each diet-analysis method depended on prey size and taxonomic group, with no method providing unbiased estimates for all prey sizes and types. The cameras registered the greatest number of prey items and were probably the least biased method for estimating diet composition. Nevertheless this direct method yielded the largest proportion of prey unidentified to species level, and it underestimated small prey. Our trail-camera system was able to operate without maintenance for longer periods than what has been reported in previous studies with other types of cameras. Initially Goshawks showed distrust toward the cameras but they usually became habituated to its presence within 1-2 days. The habituation period was shorter for breeding pairs that had previous experience with cameras. Using trail-cameras to monitor prey provisioning to nests is an effective tool for studying the diet of nesting raptors. However, the technique is limited by technical failures and difficulties in identifying certain prey types. Our study also shows that cameras can alter adult Goshawk behavior, an aspect that must be controlled to minimize potential negative impacts.

  6. On the Trail of Missing Heat: Forward Gravity Modeling of the San Francisco Volcanic Field, Northern Arizona

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fry, B. N.; Morgan, P.

    2003-12-01

    The San Francisco volcanic field is a Quaternary field in northern Arizona, the age and size of which suggests there is a high possibility for an associated exploitable high temperature geothermal resource. Sunset Crater, the youngest dated feature in the field, erupted less than 1000 years ago. The youngest felsic volcanism in the area, located near Strawberry Crater, has been dated at about 51,000 years b.p. Felsic magmas are viscous, and therefore felsic magmatism is generally associated with upper crustal plutons, whereas mafic magmas commonly form surface flows. Heat from felsic magmatism tends to remain near subsurface ponds of the magma. Felsic magmatic systems can sustain substantial geothermal heat for tens to hundreds of thousands of years after emplacement. Knowledge of the quantity and distribution of felsic magmatism is therefore paramount to understanding the geothermal potential of the field. Surface heat flow in the study area ranges from ˜20 to ˜50 mW/m2, anomalously low for the region. Hydrological characteristics of the San Francisco volcanic field are thought to mask increased surface heat flow from the magmatic system. The deep water table (>300m) and a 2-level hydraulic system prevent characteristic surface manifestations of hydrothermal potential, such as hot springs and elevated surface heat flow. Lack of these thermal features at the surface precludes analysis of the resource based solely on surficial mapping and measurements. Forward modeling of the gravity field of a 50 km x 45 km area covering the eastern San Francisco volcanic field has been completed. Results suggest that a large felsic body ( ˜-0.15 g/cc contrast) trends northeastward under the Sugarloaf Mountain-O'Leary Peak-Strawberry Crater magmatic trend. This trend parallels a regional basement fabric, likely of early- to middle-Proterozoic origin. These results are being correlated with new surface geologic mapping and radiometric dating of young felsic volcanic rocks to

  7. On the effects of ENSO on ocean biogeochemistry in the Northern Humboldt Current System (NHCS): A modeling study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mogollón, Rodrigo; Calil, Paulo H. R.

    2017-08-01

    The response of the ocean biogeochemistry to intense El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events in the Northern Humboldt Current System (NHCS) is assessed with an eddy-resolving coupled physical-biogeochemical model. El Niño (EN) 1997-1998 and La Niña (LN) 1999-2000 are well reproduced, inducing large spatial and temporal variability of biogeochemical properties at three coastal upwelling centers along the Peruvian coast (Chimbote 9.4°S, Callao 12.1°S, and Pisco 14°S). During EN, the upper limit of the Oxygen Minimum Zone (OMZ) experiences an offshore displacement of, approximately, 60 km and a deepening of, approximately, 150 m when compared to neutral-ENSO conditions, thus ventilating the upper 100 m of the water column. In contrast, during LN, the OMZ tongue outcrops over the continental shelf deoxygenating the water column at all locations. During LN, at the southernmost location, enhanced Eddy Kinetic Energy (EKE) induces a leaking of the coastal nutrient inventory by horizontally advecting nitrogen from the nearshore region into the oligotrophic ocean. This leads to a reduction of biological production in the coastal zone. During EN, nitrification is an order of magnitude larger than denitrification in supplying the nitrite coastal pool. During LN peak, nitrification is reduced by 80%, while denitrification becomes equally important, evidencing a coupling between these two oxygen-dependent processes. The nitrogen removal due to suboxic activity is mostly controlled by the Anaerobic Ammonium Oxidation (Anammox) in the southern domain during neutral-ENSO conditions. Our results show that during EN, denitrification contributes with 60% of the total nitrogen removal. In contrast, Anammox contributes with 70% during LN. The outgassing of nitrous oxide (N2O), an intermediate product of denitrification, is reduced and enhanced during EN and LN, respectively, and it is strongly modulated by the spatiotemporal variability of oxygen in the environment.

  8. Attribution of modeled atmospheric sulfate and SO2 in the Northern Hemisphere for June–July 1997

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. M. Benkovitz

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Anthropogenic sulfate aerosol is a major contributor to shortwave radiative forcing of climate change by direct light scattering and by perturbing cloud properties and to local concentrations of atmospheric particulate matter. Here we analyze results from previously published calculations with an Eulerian transport model for atmospheric sulfur species in the Northern Hemisphere in June–July, 1997 to quantify the absolute and relative contributions of specific source regions (North America, Europe, and Asia and SO2-to-sulfate conversion mechanisms (gas-phase, aqueous-phase and primary sulfate to sulfate and SO2 column burdens as a function of location and time. Although material emitted within a given region dominates the sulfate and SO2 column burden in that region, examination of time series at specific locations shows that material imported from outside can make a substantial and occasionally dominant contribution. Frequently the major fraction of these exogenous contributions to the sulfate column burden was present aloft, thus minimally impacting air quality at the surface, but contributing substantially to the burden and, by implication, to radiative forcing and diminution of surface irradiance. Although the dominant sulfate formation pathway in the domain as a whole is aqueous-phase reaction in clouds (62%, in regions with minimum opportunity for aqueous-phase reaction gas-phase oxidation is dominant, albeit with considerable temporal variability depending on meteorological conditions. These calculations highlight the importance of transoceanic transport of sulfate, especially at the western margins of continents under the influence of predominantly westerly transport winds.

  9. Model-based scenario planning to inform climate change adaptation in the Northern Great Plains—Final report

    Science.gov (United States)

    Symstad, Amy J.; Miller, Brian W.; Friedman, Jonathan M.; Fisichelli, Nicholas A.; Ray, Andrea J.; Rowland, Erika; Schuurman, Gregor W.

    2017-12-18

    Public SummaryWe worked with managers in two focal areas to plan for the uncertain future by integrating quantitative climate change scenarios and simulation modeling into scenario planning exercises.In our central North Dakota focal area, centered on Knife River Indian Villages National Historic Site, managers are concerned about how changes in flood severity and growing conditions for native and invasive plants may affect archaeological resources and cultural landscapes associated with the Knife and Missouri Rivers. Climate projections and hydrological modeling based on those projections indicate plausible changes in spring and summer soil moisture ranging from a 7 percent decrease to a 13 percent increase and maximum winter snowpack (important for spring flooding) changes ranging from a 13 percent decrease to a 47 percent increase. Facilitated discussions among managers and scientists exploring the implications of these different climate scenarios for resource management revealed potential conflicts between protecting archeological sites and fostering riparian cottonwood forests. The discussions also indicated the need to prioritize archeological sites for excavation or protection and culturally important plant species for intensive management attention.In our southwestern South Dakota focal area, centered on Badlands National Park, managers are concerned about how changing climate will affect vegetation production, wildlife populations, and erosion of fossils, archeological artifacts, and roads. Climate scenarios explored by managers and scientists in this focal area ranged from a 13 percent decrease to a 33 percent increase in spring precipitation, which is critical to plant growth in the northern Great Plains region, and a slight decrease to a near doubling of intense rain events. Facilitated discussions in this focal area concluded that greater effort should be put into preparing for emergency protection, excavation, and preservation of exposed fossils or

  10. A model study of the Copper River plume and its effects on the northern Gulf of Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yuan; Xue, Huijie; Chai, Fei; Chao, Yi; Farrara, John

    2014-01-01

    A three-level nested Regional Ocean Modeling System was used to examine the seasonal evolution of the Copper River (CR) plume and how it influences the along- and across-shore transport in the northern Gulf of Alaska (NGoA). A passive tracer was introduced in the model to delineate the growth and decay of the plume and to diagnose the spread of the CR discharge in the shelf, into Prince William Sound (PWS) and offshore. Furthermore, a model experiment with doubled discharge was conducted to investigate potential impacts of accelerated glacier melt in future climate scenarios. The 2010 and 2011 simulation revealed that the upstream (eastward) transport in the NGoA is negligible. About 60 % of the passive tracer released in the CR discharge is transported southwestward on the shelf, while another one third goes into PWS with close to 60 % of which exiting PWS to the shelf from Montague Strait. The rest few percent is transported across the shelf break and exported to the GoA basin. The downstream transport and the transport into PWS are strongly regulated by the downwelling-favorable wind, while the offshore transport is related to the accumulation of plume water in the shelf, frontal instability, and the Alaskan Stream. It takes weeks in spring for the buoyancy to accumulate so that a bulge forms outside of the CR estuary. The absence of strong storms as in the summer of 2010 allows the bulge continue growing to trigger frontal instability. These frontal features can interact with the Alaskan Stream to induce transport pulses across the shelf break. Alternatively as in 2011, a downwelling-favorable wind event in early August (near the peak discharge) accelerates the southwestward coastal current and produces an intense downstream transport event. Both processes result in fast drains of the buoyancy and the plume content, thereby rapid disintegration of the plume in the shelf. The plume in the doubled discharge case can be two to three times in size, which affects

  11. Comparison between different approaches of modeling shallow landslide susceptibility: a case history in the area of Oltrepo Pavese, Northern Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zizioli, D.; Meisina, C.; Valentino, R.; Montrasio, L.

    2012-04-01

    Shallow landslides are triggered by intense rainfalls of short duration. Even though they involve only small portions of hilly and mountainous terrains, they are the cause of heavy damages to people and infrastructures. The identification of shallow landslide prone-areas is, therefore, a necessity to plan mitigation measures. On the 27th and 28th of April 2009, the area of Oltrepo Pavese, northern Italy, was affected by a very intense rainfall event, which caused a great number of shallow landslides. These instability phenomena meanly occurred on slopes taken up by vineyards and caused damages to many roads and one human loss. On the basis of aerial photographs taken immediately after the event and field surveys, it was possible to detect more than 1,600 landslides. After acquiring all the information dealing with topography, geotechnical properties of the involved soils and land use, a susceptibility analysis on territorial scale has been carried out. The paper deals with the application and the comparison, on the study area, of different methods for the susceptibility assessment: a) the physically-based stability models TRIGRS (Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-Based Regional Slope-Stability Model, Baum et al., 2008), which is designed for modelling the potential occurrences of shallow landslides by incorporating the transient pressure response to rainfall and downward infiltration processes and SLIP (Shallow Landslides Instability Prediction; Montrasio, 2000; Montrasio and Valentino, 2008), which allows to dynamically take into account the connection between the stability condition of a slope, the characteristics of the soil, and the rainfall amounts, including also previous rainfalls; b) the logistic regression and the Neural Artificial Network (ANN) that take into account some important predisposing factors in the study area (slope angle, landform classification, the potential solar radiation, soil thickness, permeability, topographic ruggedness index

  12. Dynamical Downscaling of Global Circulation Models With the Weather Research and Forecast Model in the Northern Great Plains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burtch, D.; Mullendore, G. L.; Kennedy, A. D.; Simms, M.; Kirilenko, A.; Coburn, J.

    2015-12-01

    Understanding the impacts of global climate change on regional scales is crucial for accurate decision-making by state and local governments. This is especially true in North Dakota, where climate change can have significant consequences on agriculture, its traditionally strongest economic sector. This region of the country shows a high variability in precipitation, especially in the summer months and so the focus of this study is on warm season processes over decadal time scales. The Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model is used to dynamically downscale two Global Circulation Models (GCMs) from the CMIP5 ensemble in order to determine the microphysical parameterization and nudging techniques (spectral or analysis) best suited for this region. The downscaled domain includes the entirety of North Dakota at a horizontal resolution of 5 km. In addition, smaller domains of 1 km horizontal resolution are centered over regions of focused hydrological importance. The dynamically downscaled simulations are compared with both gridded observational data and statistically downscaled data to evaluate the performance of the simulations. Preliminary results have shown a marked difference between the two downscaled GCMs in terms of temperature and precipitation bias. Choice of microphysical parameterization has not shown to create any significant differences in the temperature fields. However, the precipitation fields do appear to be most affected by the microphysical parameterization, regardless of the choice of GCM. Implications on the unique water resource challenges faced in this region will also be discussed.

  13. Natural radionuclides tracing in marine surface waters along the northern coast of Oman Sea by combining the radioactivity analysis, oceanic currents and the SWAN model results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zare, Mohammad Reza; Mostajaboddavati, Mojtaba; Kamali, Mahdi; Tari, Marziyeh; Mosayebi, Sanaz; Mortazavi, Mohammad Seddigh

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • This study estimates radioactive pollution diffusion in coastline of the Oman Sea. • 36 high volume surface water samples were analyzed using a portable HPGe detector. • Oceanic currents in the northern coast of Oman Sea were investigated. • The spectral wave model SWAN was used for wave parameters simulation. • Currents and preferable wave directions were coupled with higher radioactivity. - Abstract: This study aims to establish a managed sampling plan for rapid estimate of natural radio-nuclides diffusion in the northern coast of the Oman Sea. First, the natural radioactivity analysis in 36 high volume surface water samples was carried out using a portable high-resolution gamma-ray spectrometry. Second, the oceanic currents in the northern coast were investigated. Then, the third generation spectral SWAN model was utilized to simulate wave parameters. Direction of natural radioactivity propagation was coupled with the preferable wave vectors and oceanic currents direction that face to any marine pollution, these last two factors will contribute to increase or decrease of pollution in each grid. The results were indicated that the natural radioactivity concentration between the grids 8600 and 8604 is gathered in the grid 8600 and between the grids 8605 and 8608 is propagated toward middle part of Oman Sea

  14. A coupled physical-biological model of the Northern Gulf of Mexico shelf: model description, validation and analysis of phytoplankton variability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Fennel

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available The Texas-Louisiana shelf in the Northern Gulf of Mexico receives large inputs of nutrients and freshwater from the Mississippi/Atchafalaya River system. The nutrients stimulate high rates of primary production in the river plume, which contributes to the development of a large and recurring hypoxic area in summer, but the mechanistic links between hypoxia and river discharge of freshwater and nutrients are complex as the accumulation and vertical export of organic matter, the establishment and maintenance of vertical stratification, and the microbial degradation of organic matter are controlled by a non-linear interplay of factors. Unraveling these interactions will have to rely on a combination of observations and models. Here we present results from a realistic, 3-dimensional, physical-biological model with focus on a quantification of nutrient-stimulated phytoplankton growth, its variability and the fate of this organic matter. We demonstrate that the model realistically reproduces many features of observed nitrate and phytoplankton dynamics including observed property distributions and rates. We then contrast the environmental factors and phytoplankton source and sink terms characteristic of three model subregions that represent an ecological gradient from eutrophic to oligotrophic conditions. We analyze specifically the reasons behind the counterintuitive observation that primary production in the light-limited plume region near the Mississippi River delta is positively correlated with river nutrient input, and find that, while primary production and phytoplankton biomass are positively correlated with nutrient load, phytoplankton growth rate is not. This suggests that accumulation of biomass in this region is not primarily controlled bottom up by nutrient-stimulation, but top down by systematic differences in the loss processes.

  15. A conceptual hydrogeological model of ophiolitic aquifers (serpentinised peridotite): The test example of Mt. Prinzera (Northern Italy)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Segadelli, Stefano; Vescovi, Paolo; Ogata, Kei; Chelli, Alessandro; Zanini, Andrea; Boschetti, Tiziano; Petrella, Emma; Toscani, Lorenzo; Gargini, Alessandro; Celico, Fulvio

    2017-01-01

    © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.The main aim of this study is the experimental analysis of the hydrogeological behaviour of the Mt. Prinzera ultramafic massif in the northern Apennines, Italy. The analysed multidisciplinary database has been acquired through (a) geologic and structural survey; (b)

  16. The scientific basis for modeling Northern Spotted Owl habitat: A response to Loehle, Irwin, Manly, and Merrill

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeffrey R. Dunk; Brian Woodbridge; Elizabeth M. Glenn; Raymond J. Davis; Katherine Fitzgerald; Paul Henson; David W. LaPlante; Bruce G. Marcot; Barry R. Noon; Martin G. Raphael; Nathan H. Schumaker; Brendan. White

    2015-01-01

    The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service recently revised the recovery plan (USFWS, 2011) and designated Critical Habitat (USFWS, 2012a) for the Northern Spotted Owl (Strix occidentalis caurina). The Critical Habitat designation was based in part on a map of relative habitat suitability that was developed by USFWS (2011, 2012b) for this purpose. Loehle...

  17. Numerical Simulation of Inter-basin Groundwater Flow into Northern Yucca Flat, Nevada National Security Site, Using the Death Valley Regional Flow System Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pohlmann Karl,Ye Ming

    2012-03-01

    Models of groundwater flow for the Yucca Flat area of the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS) are under development by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) for corrective action investigations of the Yucca Flat-Climax Mine Corrective Action Unit (CAU). One important aspect of these models is the quantity of inter-basin groundwater flow from regional systems to the north. This component of flow, together with its uncertainty, must be properly accounted for in the CAU flow models to provide a defensible regional framework for calculations of radionuclide transport that will support determinations of the Yucca Flat-Climax Mine contaminant boundary. Because characterizing flow boundary conditions in northern Yucca Flat requires evaluation to a higher level of detail than the scale of the Yucca Flat-Climax Mine CAU model can efficiently provide, a study more focused on this aspect of the model was required.

  18. Observed and Modeled Currents from the Tohoku-oki, Japan and other Recent Tsunamis in Northern California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Admire, Amanda R.; Dengler, Lori A.; Crawford, Gregory B.; Uslu, Burak U.; Borrero, Jose C.; Greer, S. Dougal; Wilson, Rick I.

    2014-12-01

    We investigate the currents produced by recent tsunamis in Humboldt Bay and Crescent City, California. The region is susceptible to both near-field and far-field tsunamis and has a historic record of damaging events. Crescent City Harbor, located approximately 100 kms north of Humboldt Bay, suffered US 28 million in damages from strong currents produced by the 2006 Kuril Islands tsunami and an additional US 26 million from the 2011 Japan tsunami. In order to better evaluate these currents in northern California, we deployed a Nortek Aquadopp 600 kHz 2D acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP) with a 1-min sampling interval in Humboldt Bay, near the existing National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Ocean Service (NOS) tide gauge station. The instrument recorded the tsunamis produced by the Mw 8.8 Chile earthquake on February 27, 2010 and the Mw 9.0 Japan earthquake on March 11, 2011. One other tsunami was recorded on the Humboldt Bay tide gauge during the period of ADCP operation, but was not visible on the ADCP, suggesting a threshold water level value of about 0.2 m to produce an observable ADCP record. The 2010 tsunami currents persisted in Humboldt Bay for approximately 30 h with peak amplitudes of about 0.35 m/s. The 2011 tsunami signal lasted for over 40 h with peak amplitude of 0.84 m/s. The strongest currents corresponded to the maximum change in water level approximately 67 min after the initial wave arrival. No damage was observed in Humboldt Bay for either event. In Crescent City, currents for the first three and one-half hours of the 2011 Japan tsunami were estimated using security camera video footage from the Harbor Master, approximately 70 m away from the NOAA-NOS tide gauge station. The largest amplitude tide gauge water-level oscillations and most of the damage occurred within this time window. The currents reached a velocity of approximately 4.5 m/s and six cycles exceeded 3 m/s during this period. Measured current velocities

  19. The computerized semi-quantitative comprehensive identification-evaluation model for the large-sized in-situ leachable sandstone type uranium deposits in Northern Xinjiang, China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Zhengbang; Qin Mingkuan; Zhao Ruiquan; Tang Shenghuang; Wang Baoqun; Lin Shuangxing

    2001-01-01

    The process of establishment of the model includes following steps: (1) Systematically studying a known typical in-situ leachable sandstone type uranium deposit--Deposit No. 512 in Yili basin, analyzing its controlling factors and establishing its metallogenetic model; (2) Establishing the metallogenetic models of this type of uranium deposit and uranium-bearing area on the basis of comparison study on the deposit No. 512 with the same type uranium deposits in the world; (3) Creating the computerized semi-quantitative comprehensive identification-evaluation model for the large-sized in-situ leachable sandstone type uranium deposits in northern Xinjiang; (4) Determining the standards of giving a evaluation-mark for each controlling factor of in-situ leachable sandstone type uranium deposit and uranium-bearing area; (5) Evaluating uranium potential and prospect of the unknown objective target

  20. USE OF THE “ROTHC” MODEL TO SIMULATE SOIL ORGANIC CARBON DYNAMICS ON A SILTY-LOAM INCEPTISOL IN NORTHERN ITALY UNDER DIFFERENT FERTILIZATION PRACTICES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rosa Francaviglia

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available We evaluated the efficiency of the RothC model to simulate Soil Organic Carbon (SOC dynamics after 12 years of organic and mineral fertilization practices in a study area located in northern Italy, on a silty-loam Inceptisol with a rotation including tomato, maize and alfalfa. The model performance was assessed by RMSE and EF coefficients. RothC simulated well observed SOC decreases in 71 samples (RMSE=7.42; EF=0.79, while performed with less accuracy when considering all samples (96 samples; RMSE=12.37; EF=0.58, due to the fact that the model failed in case of measured SOC increases (25 samples; RMSE=20.77; EF=-0.038. The model was used to forecast the SOC dynamics over a 50 year period under the same pedoclimatic conditions. Only clay contents >15% allowed to predict increasing levels of SOC respect to the starting values.

  1. Sedimentary facies and gas accumulation model of Lower Shihezi Formation in Shenguhao area, northern Ordos basin, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Weibing; Chen, Lin; Lu, Yongchao; Zhao, Shuai

    2017-04-01

    The Lower Shihezi formation of lower Permian series in Shenguhao develops the highest gas abundance of upper Paleozoic in China, which has already commercially produced on a large scale. The structural location of Shenguhao belongs to the transition zone of Yimeng uplift and Yishan slope of northern Ordos basin, China. Based on the data of core, well logging and seismic, the sedimentary facies and gas accumulation model have been studied in this paper. Sedimentary facies analysis shows that the braided delta is the major facies type developed in this area during the period of Lower Shihezi formation. The braided delta can be further divided into two microfacies, distributary channel and flood plain. The distributary channel sandbody develops the characteristics of scour surface, trough cross beddings and normal grading sequences. Its seismic reflection structure is with the shape of flat top and concave bottom. Its gamma-ray logging curve is mainly in a box or bell shape. The flood plain is mainly composed of thick mudstones. Its seismic reflection structure is with the shape of parallel or sub-parallel sheet. Its gamma-ray logging curve is mainly in a linear tooth shape. On the whole, the distribution of sandbody is characterized by large thickness, wide area and good continuity. Based on the analysis of the sea level change and the restoration of the ancient landform in the period of Lower Shihezi formation, the sea level relative change and morphology of ancient landform have been considered as the main controlling factors for the development and distribution of sedimentary facies. The topography was with big topographic relief, and the sea level was relatively low in the early stage of Low Shihezi formation. The sandbody distributed chiefly along the landform depressions. The sandbody mainly developed in the pattern of multiple vertical superpositions with thick layer. In the later stage, landform gradually converted to be flat, and strata tended to be gentle

  2. Three-dimensional water quality model based on FVCOM for total load control management in Guan River Estuary, Northern Jiangsu Province

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Li; Lin, Weibo; Li, Keqiang; Sheng, Jianming; Wei, Aihong; Luo, Feng; Wang, Yan; Wang, Xiulin; Zhang, Longjun

    2016-04-01

    Guan River Estuary and adjacent coastal area (GREC) suffer from serious pollution and eutrophicational problems over the recent years. Thus, reducing the land-based load through the national pollutant total load control program and developing hydrodynamic and water quality models that can simulate the complex circulation and water quality kinetics within the system, including longitudinal and lateral variations in nutrient and COD concentrations, is a matter of urgency. In this study, a three-dimensional, hydrodynamic, water quality model was developed in GREC, Northern Jiangsu Province. The complex three-dimensional hydrodynamics of GREC were modeled using the unstructured-grid, finite-volume, free-surface, primitive equation coastal ocean circulation model (FVCOM). The water quality model was adapted from the mesocosm nutrients dynamic model in the south Yellow Sea and considers eight compartments: dissolved inorganic nitrogen, soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP), phytoplankton, zooplankton, detritus, dissolved organic nitrogen (DON), dissolved organic phosphorus (DOP), and chemical oxygen demand. The hydrodynamic and water quality models were calibrated and confirmed for 2012 and 2013. A comparison of the model simulations with extensive dataset shows that the models accurately simulate the longitudinal distribution of the hydrodynamics and water quality. The model can be used for total load control management to improve water quality in this area.

  3. Geophysical modelling of the central Skellefte district, Northern Sweden; an integrated model based on the electrical, potential field and petrophysical data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tavakoli, Saman; Elming, Sten-Åke; Thunehed, Hans

    2012-07-01

    The central Skellefte district (CSD) is a part of a major ore-bearing district in northern Sweden. Studying the depth and patterns of the contact relationship between the two major stratigraphic units of the CSD, the Skellefte Group and the Vargfors Group, is a key issue to understand the geometry and structure of the area and to guide exploration of base metals. In this study, we interpret geoelectrical data collected along two profiles and magnetic and gravity data obtained from the database of the Swedish Geological Survey (SGU) and Boliden Mineral, to reveal contact relationship and depth extension of the major geological structures. Petrophysical analyses of the different lithologies were conducted on samples from the database of the SGU. Electric resistivity, induced polarisation (IP), magnetic susceptibility and density were determined on 154 core samples representing the different lithologies of the area. The resistivity/IP data were acquired to define structural relations down to a maximum depth of ~ 430 m. The major contact between sediments of the Vargfors basin and volcanic rocks of the Skellefte Group were outlined from the inversion of the resistivity/IP sections, suggesting a synform boundary between the Vargfors Group and Skellefte Group. The contact relationship between the felsic and mafic volcanic rocks of the Skellefte Group is also understood with the help of the resistivity/IP data. The resistivity models were tested using the magnetic data and magnetic susceptibility inferred on the resistivity bodies. The result suggests a good correlation between the initial resistivity model and the magnetic and gravity field calculated from that model. The integration and interpretation of geological and geophysical data improved the basic understanding of the geometry of CSD. Based on previous geological investigations, the potential ore deposits are believed to be found along the volcano-sedimentary contact. The result from this study can thus be used

  4. A project optimization for small watercourses restoration in the northern part of the Volga-Akhtuba floodplain by the geoinformation and hydrodynamic modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voronin, Alexander; Vasilchenko, Ann; Khoperskov, Alexander

    2018-03-01

    The project of small watercourses restoration in the northern part of the Volga-Akhtuba floodplain is considered together with the aim of increasing the watering of the territory during small and medium floods. The topography irregularity, the complex structure of the floodplain valley consisting of large number of small watercourses, the presence of urbanized and agricultural areas require careful preliminary analysis of the hydrological safety and efficiency of geographically distributed project activities. Using the digital terrain and watercourses structure models of the floodplain, the hydrodynamic flood model, the analysis of the hydrological safety and efficiency of several project implementation strategies has been conducted. The objective function values have been obtained from the hydrodynamic calculations of the floodplain territory flooding for virtual digital terrain models simulating alternatives for the geographically distributed project activities. The comparative efficiency of several empirical strategies for the geographically distributed project activities, as well as a two-stage exact solution method for the optimization problem has been studied.

  5. Evaluation of Land Surface Models in Reproducing Satellite-Derived LAI over the High-Latitude Northern Hemisphere. Part I: Uncoupled DGVMs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ning Zeng

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Leaf Area Index (LAI represents the total surface area of leaves above a unit area of ground and is a key variable in any vegetation model, as well as in climate models. New high resolution LAI satellite data is now available covering a period of several decades. This provides a unique opportunity to validate LAI estimates from multiple vegetation models. The objective of this paper is to compare new, satellite-derived LAI measurements with modeled output for the Northern Hemisphere. We compare monthly LAI output from eight land surface models from the TRENDY compendium with satellite data from an Artificial Neural Network (ANN from the latest version (third generation of GIMMS AVHRR NDVI data over the period 1986–2005. Our results show that all the models overestimate the mean LAI, particularly over the boreal forest. We also find that seven out of the eight models overestimate the length of the active vegetation-growing season, mostly due to a late dormancy as a result of a late summer phenology. Finally, we find that the models report a much larger positive trend in LAI over this period than the satellite observations suggest, which translates into a higher trend in the growing season length. These results highlight the need to incorporate a larger number of more accurate plant functional types in all models and, in particular, to improve the phenology of deciduous trees.

  6. Three-dimensional hydrogeologic framework model of the Rio Grande transboundary region of New Mexico and Texas, USA, and northern Chihuahua, Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sweetkind, Donald S.

    2017-09-08

    As part of a U.S. Geological Survey study in cooperation with the Bureau of Reclamation, a digital three-dimensional hydrogeologic framework model was constructed for the Rio Grande transboundary region of New Mexico and Texas, USA, and northern Chihuahua, Mexico. This model was constructed to define the aquifer system geometry and subsurface lithologic characteristics and distribution for use in a regional numerical hydrologic model. The model includes five hydrostratigraphic units: river channel alluvium, three informal subdivisions of Santa Fe Group basin fill, and an undivided pre-Santa Fe Group bedrock unit. Model input data were compiled from published cross sections, well data, structure contour maps, selected geophysical data, and contiguous compilations of surficial geology and structural features in the study area. These data were used to construct faulted surfaces that represent the upper and lower subsurface hydrostratigraphic unit boundaries. The digital three-dimensional hydrogeologic framework model is constructed through combining faults, the elevation of the tops of each hydrostratigraphic unit, and boundary lines depicting the subsurface extent of each hydrostratigraphic unit. The framework also compiles a digital representation of the distribution of sedimentary facies within each hydrostratigraphic unit. The digital three-dimensional hydrogeologic model reproduces with reasonable accuracy the previously published subsurface hydrogeologic conceptualization of the aquifer system and represents the large-scale geometry of the subsurface aquifers. The model is at a scale and resolution appropriate for use as the foundation for a numerical hydrologic model of the study area.

  7. A new space-time characterization of Northern Hemisphere drought in model simulations of the past and future as compared to the paleoclimate record

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coats, S.; Smerdon, J. E.; Stevenson, S.; Fasullo, J.; Otto-Bliesner, B. L.

    2017-12-01

    The observational record, which provides only limited sampling of past climate variability, has made it difficult to quantitatively analyze the complex spatio-temporal character of drought. To provide a more complete characterization of drought, machine learning based methods that identify drought in three-dimensional space-time are applied to climate model simulations of the last millennium and future, as well as tree-ring based reconstructions of hydroclimate over the Northern Hemisphere extratropics. A focus is given to the most persistent and severe droughts of the past 1000 years. Analyzing reconstructions and simulations in this context allows for a validation of the spatio-temporal character of persistent and severe drought in climate model simulations. Furthermore, the long records provided by the reconstructions and simulations, allows for sufficient sampling to constrain projected changes to the spatio-temporal character of these features using the reconstructions. Along these lines, climate models suggest that there will be large increases in the persistence and severity of droughts over the coming century, but little change in their spatial extent. These models, however, exhibit biases in the spatio-temporal character of persistent and severe drought over parts of the Northern Hemisphere, which may undermine their usefulness for future projections. Despite these limitations, and in contrast to previous claims, there are no systematic changes in the character of persistent and severe droughts in simulations of the historical interval. This suggests that climate models are not systematically overestimating the hydroclimate response to anthropogenic forcing over this period, with critical implications for confidence in hydroclimate projections.

  8. Changes in the Intensity and Frequency of Atmospheric Blocking and Associated Heat Waves During Northern Summer Over Eurasia in the CMIP5 Model Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Kyu-Myong; Lau, K. M.; Wu, H. T.; Kim, Maeng-Ki; Cho, Chunho

    2012-01-01

    The Russia heat wave and wild fires of the summer of 2010 was the most extreme weather event in the history of the country. Studies show that the root cause of the 2010 Russia heat wave/wild fires was an atmospheric blocking event which started to develop at the end of June and peaked around late July and early August. Atmospheric blocking in the summer of 2010 was anomalous in terms of the size, duration, and the location, which shifted to the east from the normal location. This and other similar continental scale severe summertime heat waves and blocking events in recent years have raised the question of whether such events are occurring more frequently and with higher intensity in a warmer climate induced by greenhouse gases. We studied the spatial and temporal distributions of the occurrence and intensity of atmospheric blocking and associated heat waves for northern summer over Eurasia based on CMIPS model simulations. To examine the global warming induced change of atmospheric blocking and heat waves, experiments for a high emissions scenario (RCP8.S) and a medium mitigation scenario (RCP4.S) are compared to the 20th century simulations (historical). Most models simulate the mean distributions of blockings reasonably well, including major blocking centers over Eurasia, northern Pacific, and northern Atlantic. However, the models tend to underestimate the number of blockings compared to MERRA and NCEPIDOE reanalysis, especially in western Siberia. Models also reproduced associated heat waves in terms of the shifting in the probability distribution function of near surface temperature. Seven out of eight models used in this study show that the frequency of atmospheric blocking over the Europe will likely decrease in a warmer climate, but slightly increase over the western Siberia. This spatial pattern resembles the blocking in the summer of 2010, indicating the possibility of more frequent occurrences of heat waves in western Siberia. In this talk, we will also

  9. Multivariate matrix model for source identification of inrush water: A case study from Renlou and Tongting coal mine in northern Anhui province, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Jun; Yao, Duoxi; Su, Yue

    2018-02-01

    Under the current situation of energy demand, coal is still one of the major energy sources in China for a certain period of time, so the task of coal mine safety production remains arduous. In order to identify the water source of the mine accurately, this article takes the example from Renlou and Tongting coal mines in the northern Anhui mining area. A total of 7 conventional water chemical indexes were selected, including Ca2+, Mg2+, Na++K+, Cl-, SO4 2-, HCO3 - and TDS, to establish a multivariate matrix model for the source identifying inrush water. The results show that the model is simple and is rarely limited by the quantity of water samples, and the recognition effect is ideal, which can be applied to the control and treatment for water inrush.

  10. Concentration and dispersion characteristics of U, Au and Si in the granite area of northern Guangdong and Southern Jiangxi and their model experiments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu Zhengyi; Li Yongli; Chen Jinrong; Shen Chaiqing; Li Jun; Guo Xiuying

    1995-05-01

    On the basis of studying the concentration and dispersion characteristics of U, Au and Si in the granite area of Northern Guangdong and Southern Jiangxi in combination with the model experiments of magmatic and hydrothermal systems, the spatial distribution of U, Au and Si, the environment of the formation for U-productive and auriferous granitic bodies and migration characteristics of U, Au and Si during magmatic and hydrothermal stages, the relationship between uranium, gold and pyrite, are briefly described. The metallogenic prediction is also given. The research achievements provided important reference for the second-round U-prospecting in the South China and Au-prospecting in the U-productive areas. This approach of research method of self-proposing hypotheses combined with model experiments is first used in the research domain of uranium geology. (1 fig., 2 tabs.)

  11. Comparison of Spheroidal Carbonaceous Particle Data with Modelled Atmospheric Black Carbon Concentration and Deposition and Air Mass Sources in Northern Europe, 1850–2010

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meri Ruppel

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Spheroidal carbonaceous particles (SCP are a well-defined fraction of black carbon (BC, produced only by the incomplete combustion of fossil fuels such as coal and oil. Their past concentrations have been studied using environmental archives, but, additionally, historical trends of BC concentration and deposition can be estimated by modelling. These models are based on BC emission inventories, but actual measurements of BC concentration and deposition play an essential role in their evaluation and validation. We use the chemistry transport model OsloCTM2 to model historical time series of BC concentration and deposition from energy and industrial sources and compare these to sedimentary measurements of SCPs obtained from lake sediments in Northern Europe from 1850 to 2010. To determine the origin of SCPs we generated back trajectories of air masses to the study sites. Generally, trends of SCP deposition and modelled results agree reasonably well, showing rapidly increasing values from 1950, to a peak in 1980, and a decrease towards the present. Empirical SCP data show differences in deposition magnitude between the sites that are not captured by the model but which may be explained by different air mass transport patterns. The results highlight the need for numerous observational records to reliably validate model results.

  12. Modes of interannual variability in northern hemisphere winter atmospheric circulation in CMIP5 models: evaluation, projection and role of external forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frederiksen, Carsten S.; Ying, Kairan; Grainger, Simon; Zheng, Xiaogu

    2018-04-01

    Models from the coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 (CMIP5) dataset are evaluated for their ability to simulate the dominant slow modes of interannual variability in the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation 500 hPa geopotential height in the twentieth century. A multi-model ensemble of the best 13 models has then been used to identify the leading modes of interannual variability in components related to (1) intraseasonal processes; (2) slowly-varying internal dynamics; and (3) the slowly-varying response to external changes in radiative forcing. Modes in the intraseasonal component are related to intraseasonal variability in the North Atlantic, North Pacific and North American, and Eurasian regions and are little affected by the larger radiative forcing of the Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario. The leading modes in the slow-internal component are related to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, Pacific North American or Tropical Northern Hemisphere teleconnection, the North Atlantic Oscillation, and the Western Pacific teleconnection pattern. While the structure of these slow-internal modes is little affected by the larger radiative forcing of the RCP8.5 scenario, their explained variance increases in the warmer climate. The leading mode in the slow-external component has a significant trend and is shown to be related predominantly to the climate change trend in the well mixed greenhouse gas concentration during the historical period. This mode is associated with increasing height in the 500 hPa pressure level. A secondary influence on this mode is the radiative forcing due to stratospheric aerosols associated with volcanic eruptions. The second slow-external mode is shown to be also related to radiative forcing due to stratospheric aerosols. Under RCP8.5 there is only one slow-external mode related to greenhouse gas forcing with a trend over four times the historical trend.

  13. Survival of brown trout during spring flood in DOC-rich streams in northern Sweden: the effect of present acid deposition and modelled pre-industrial water quality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laudon, Hjalmar; Poléo, Antonio B S; Vøllestad, Leif Asbjørn; Bishop, Kevin

    2005-05-01

    Mortality and physiological responses in brown trout (Salmo trutta) were studied during spring snow melt in six streams in northern Sweden that differed in concentrations of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and pH declines. Data from these streams were used to create an empirical model for predicting fish responses (mortality and physiological disturbances) in DOC-rich streams using readily accessible water chemistry parameters. The results suggest that fish in these systems can tolerate higher acidity and inorganic aluminium levels than fish in low DOC streams. But even with the relatively low contemporary deposition load, anthropogenic deposition can cause fish mortality in the most acid-sensitive surface waters in northern Sweden during spring flood. However, the results suggests that it is only in streams with high levels of organically complexed aluminium in combination with a natural pH decline to below 5.0 during the spring where current sulphur deposition can cause irreversible damage to brown trout in the region. This study support earlier studies suggesting that DOC has an ameliorating effect on physiological disturbances in humic waters but the study also shows that surviving fish recover physiologically when the water quality returns to less toxic conditions following a toxic high flow period. The physiological response under natural, pre-industrial conditions was also estimated.

  14. Modeling interactions of soil hydrological dynamics and soil thermal and permafrost dynamics and their effects on carbon cycling in northern high latitudes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhuang, Q.; Tang, J.

    2008-12-01

    Large areas of northern high latitude ecosystems are underlain with permafrost. The warming temperature and fires deteriorate the stability of those permafrost, altering hydrological cycle, and consequently soil temperature and active layer depth. These changes will determine the fate of large carbon pools in soils and permafrost over the region. We developed a modeling framework of hydrology, permafrost, and biogeochemical dynamics based on our existing modules of these components. The framework was incorporated with a new snow dynamics module and the effects of soil moisture on soil thermal properties. The framework was tested for tundra and boreal forest ecosystems at field sites with respect to soil thermal and hydrological regimes in Alaska and was then applied to the whole Alaskan ecosystems for the period of 1923-2000 at a daily time step. Our two sets of simulations with and without considering soil moisture effects indicated that the soil temperature profile and active layer depth between two simulations are significant different. The differences of soil thermal regime would expect to result in different carbon dynamics. Next, we will verify the framework with the observed data of soil moisture and soil temperature at poor-drain, moderate-drain, and well-drain boreal forest sites in Alaska. With the verified framework, we will evaluate the effects of interactions of soil thermal and hydrological dynamics on carbon dynamics for the whole northern high latitudes.

  15. ENSO-Modulation of Plankton Production in the Northern Gulf of Mexico: A High-Resolution Ocean-Biogeochemical Model Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gomez, F. A.; Lee, S. K.; Liu, Y.; Hernandez, F., Jr.; Lamkin, J. T.

    2017-12-01

    Previous studies have suggested that El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) plays a role in modulating phytoplankton biomass and the reproductive success of marine species in the Gulf of Mexico (GoM). However, characterizations of ENSO-related ecosystem responses such as plankton production have not been fully addressed for the region. Here we examine ENSO impacts on biogeochemical processes within coastal and open ocean domains in the GoM, using a three dimensional high-resolution ocean-biogeochemical model, forced with historical surface fluxes and river run-off for 1979 - 2014. Enhanced precipitation across southern US during El Nino winter increases freshwater discharge and nutrient load into the GoM mainly via the Mississippi-Atchafalaya River. Those anomalies lead to reduced salinity and greater concentration of dissolved inorganic nitrogen and plankton production in the northern shelf especially during winter. In addition, the frequency of northerly wind anomalies that cool the upper ocean increases during El Nino. The negative surface heat flux anomalies further decrease vertical thermal stratification and thus increase phytoplankton production during early spring in the northern deep GoM.

  16. Multi-site calibration, validation, and sensitivity analysis of the MIKE SHE Model for a large watershed in northern China

    Science.gov (United States)

    S. Wang; Z. Zhang; G. Sun; P. Strauss; J. Guo; Y. Tang; A. Yao

    2012-01-01

    Model calibration is essential for hydrologic modeling of large watersheds in a heterogeneous mountain environment. Little guidance is available for model calibration protocols for distributed models that aim at capturing the spatial variability of hydrologic processes. This study used the physically-based distributed hydrologic model, MIKE SHE, to contrast a lumped...

  17. Implications of climate change on winter road networks in Ontario's Far North and northern Manitoba, Canada, based on climate model projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hori, Y.; Cheng, V. Y. S.; Gough, W. A.

    2017-12-01

    A network of winter roads in northern Canada connects a number of remote First Nations communities to all-season roads and rails. The extent of the winter road networks depends on the geographic features, socio-economic activities, and the numbers of remote First Nations so that it differs among the provinces. The most extensive winter road networks below the 60th parallel south are located in Ontario and Manitoba, serving 32 and 18 communities respectively. In recent years, a warmer climate has resulted in a shorter winter road season and an increase in unreliable road conditions; thus, limiting access among remote communities. This study focused on examining the future freezing degree-days (FDDs) accumulations during the winter road season at selected locations throughout Ontario's Far North and northern Manitoba using recent climate model projections from the multi-model ensembles of General Circulation Models (GCMs) under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. First, the non-parametric Mann-Kendall correlation test and the Theil-Sen method were used to identify any statistically significant trends between FDDs and time for the base period (1981-2010). Second, future climate scenarios are developed for the study areas using statistical downscaling methods. This study also examined the lowest threshold of FDDs during the winter road construction in a future period. Our previous study established the lowest threshold of 380 FDDs, which derived from the relationship between the FDDs and the opening dates of James Bay Winter Road near the Hudson-James Bay coast. Thus, this study applied the threshold measure as a conservative estimate of the minimum threshold of FDDs to examine the effects of climate change on the winter road construction period.

  18. Ancient DNA from hunter-gatherer and farmer groups from Northern Spain supports a random dispersion model for the Neolithic expansion into Europe.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Montserrat Hervella

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The phenomenon of Neolithisation refers to the transition of prehistoric populations from a hunter-gatherer to an agro-pastoralist lifestyle. Traditionally, the spread of an agro-pastoralist economy into Europe has been framed within a dichotomy based either on an acculturation phenomenon or on a demic diffusion. However, the nature and speed of this transition is a matter of continuing scientific debate in archaeology, anthropology, and human population genetics. In the present study, we have analyzed the mitochondrial DNA diversity in hunter-gatherers and first farmers from Northern Spain, in relation to the debate surrounding the phenomenon of Neolithisation in Europe. METHODOLOGY/SIGNIFICANCE: Analysis of mitochondrial DNA was carried out on 54 individuals from Upper Paleolithic and Early Neolithic, which were recovered from nine archaeological sites from Northern Spain (Basque Country, Navarre and Cantabria. In addition, to take all necessary precautions to avoid contamination, different authentication criteria were applied in this study, including: DNA quantification, cloning, duplication (51% of the samples and replication of the results (43% of the samples by two independent laboratories. Statistical and multivariate analyses of the mitochondrial variability suggest that the genetic influence of Neolithisation did not spread uniformly throughout Europe, producing heterogeneous genetic consequences in different geographical regions, rejecting the traditional models that explain the Neolithisation in Europe. CONCLUSION: The differences detected in the mitochondrial DNA lineages of Neolithic groups studied so far (including these ones of this study suggest different genetic impact of Neolithic in Central Europe, Mediterranean Europe and the Cantabrian fringe. The genetic data obtained in this study provide support for a random dispersion model for Neolithic farmers. This random dispersion had a different

  19. Vertical and horizontal resolution dependency in the model representation of tracer dispersion along the continental slope in the northern Gulf of Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bracco, Annalisa; Choi, Jun; Kurian, Jaison; Chang, Ping

    2018-02-01

    A set of nine regional ocean model simulations at various horizontal (from 1 to 9 km) and vertical (from 25 to 150 layers) resolutions with different vertical mixing parameterizations is carried out to examine the transport and mixing of a passive tracer released near the ocean bottom over the continental slope in the northern Gulf of Mexico. The release location is in proximity to the Deepwater Horizon oil well that ruptured in April 2010. Horizontal and diapycnal diffusivities are calculated and their dependence on the model set-up and on the representation of mesoscale and submesoscale circulations is discussed. Horizontal and vertical resolutions play a comparable role in determining the modeled horizontal diffusivities. Vertical resolution is key to a proper representation of passive tracer propagation and - in the case of the Gulf of Mexico - contributes to both confining the tracer along the continental slope and limiting its vertical spreading. The choice of the tracer advection scheme is also important, with positive definiteness in the tracer concentration being achieved at the price of spurious mixing across density surfaces. In all cases, however, the diapycnal mixing coefficient derived from the model simulations overestimates the observed value, indicating an area where model improvement is needed.

  20. Progressive Subduction-Accretion Growth of the Late Paleozoic-Cretaceous Izmir-Ankara Suture Zone Melange in Northern Anatolia, Turkey, and a New Tectonic Model for the Evolution of Northern Neotethys

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dilek, Y.; Sarifakioglu, E.; Sevin, M.

    2011-12-01

    of the MORB-like suites. Based on the biostratigraphic and radiometric age relations and data we infer that the MORB-type oceanic lithosphere formed in the early Triassic (or earlier) through late Cretaceous between Pontides (north) and Anatolide-Tauride (south) continental blocks. The SSZ-type oceanic crust and seamounts/oceanic plateaus evolved in and across this pre-existing MORB-like oceanic lithosphere throughout the Liassic and Cretaecous. Accretion of seamounts and oceanic plateaus throughout the Mesozoic played a significant role in the tectonic evolution of the Eurasian active continental margin and its progressive southward migration and growth through time. We present a new geodynamic model here for the Mesozoic tectonics and paleogeography of the Northern Neotethys.

  1. Northern Exposure

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Adamo, Silvia

    2008-01-01

    to the theoretical model of multiculturalism developed by Will Kymlicka. The conclusion is provisional and takes into consideration the fact that the citizenship test is a relatively new introduction in Denmark, which makes its impact difficult to measure in empirical terms. There is, however, some evidence...

  2. Incorporating microbial dormancy dynamics into soil decomposition models to improve quantification of soil carbon dynamics of northern temperate forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Yujie; Yang, Jinyan; Zhuang, Qianlai; Harden, Jennifer W.; McGuire, A. David; Liu, Yaling; Wang, Gangsheng; Gu, Lianhong

    2015-01-01

    Soil carbon dynamics of terrestrial ecosystems play a significant role in the global carbon cycle. Microbial-based decomposition models have seen much growth recently for quantifying this role, yet dormancy as a common strategy used by microorganisms has not usually been represented and tested in these models against field observations. Here we developed an explicit microbial-enzyme decomposition model and examined model performance with and without representation of microbial dormancy at six temperate forest sites of different forest types. We then extrapolated the model to global temperate forest ecosystems to investigate biogeochemical controls on soil heterotrophic respiration and microbial dormancy dynamics at different temporal-spatial scales. The dormancy model consistently produced better match with field-observed heterotrophic soil CO2 efflux (RH) than the no dormancy model. Our regional modeling results further indicated that models with dormancy were able to produce more realistic magnitude of microbial biomass (dormancy, our modeling results showed that soil carbon-to-nitrogen ratio (C:N) was a major regulating factor at regional scales (correlation coefficient = −0.43 to −0.58), indicating scale-dependent biogeochemical controls on microbial dynamics. Our findings suggest that incorporating microbial dormancy could improve the realism of microbial-based decomposition models and enhance the integration of soil experiments and mechanistically based modeling.

  3. Structural and sedimentary evidence from the northern margin of the Tauride platform in south central Turkey used to test alternative models of Tethys during Early Mesozoic time

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mackintosh, Peter W.; Robertson, Alastair H. F.

    2009-07-01

    Critical to reconstruction of the Tethys ocean is the nature and significance of a reported latest Triassic "Cimmerian" tectonic event in the Tauride Mountains of south central Turkey. In one published model, a "Cimmerian" continental fragment, including the Tauride platform rifted from the northern margin of Gondwana and collided with a Eurasian-derived "Anatolide" continental fragment during Late Triassic time, causing orogenic deformation of the Tauride continental platform. In a second published model, southward subduction of a Palaeotethyan ocean opened a back-arc basin associated with rift-related uplift of the Tauride platform during Early Triassic time. The Tauride platform remained as a north-facing passive margin from the Mid-Late Triassic to Late Cretaceous without further deformation. In a third published model, a continental fragment rifted from a Tauride-Anatolide platform in the south, opening a small ocean basin (Ankara-İzmir ocean) to the north by Mid-Late Triassic time. Late Triassic deformation and uplift of the Tauride platform possibly resulted from far-field stress transmission from the Cimmerian orogeny that affected the Eurasian margin. In an additional model, a Tauride-Anatolide continent experienced a rift-related evolution, culminating in a pulse of extension-related uplift during the latest Triassic, followed by seafloor spreading to the north. The models are tested using evidence from relatively autochthonous Tauride units (Geyik Dağ; Sultan Dağ) and over-riding thrust sheets (Hadim (Aladağ) nappe; Bolkar nappe). Geological mapping of critical areas and related structural evidence show that most of the deformation in the area can be related to Late Cretaceous and Early Cenozoic (Alpine) emplacement of the Tauride nappes, although Late Triassic compressional deformation is likely at one locality. Sedimentary evidence from the Çayır Formation, a widespread ~ latest Triassic-earliest Jurassic clastic sequence shows that it

  4. Assessing the Effect of Natural and Induced Fractures on Long-Term CO2 Storage in the Northern Appalachian Basin Using Thermo-Hydro-Mechanical Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raziperchikolaee, S.; Kelley, M. E.; Main, J.

    2017-12-01

    Natural and induced fractures in a caprock could allow CO2 to migrate out of the intended storage reservoirs in the CO2 sequestration process. We evaluate, through the use of coupled hydro-mechanical numerical modeling, the effectiveness of the Cambrian-Ordovician caprock system in the northern Appalachian Basin for providing long-term containment of CO2 in the presence of existing and induced fractures. Resistivity image and acoustic image logs from wells in the study area were used characterize natural fractures in the caprock zone. The logs showed no compelling evidence of pervasive natural fracturing of the caprock; however, limited natural fractures occur in small isolated patches. Therefore, we modeled natural fractures as isolated features of limited size using the dual-porosity method. The modeling results show that the caprock is effective at preventing CO2 breakthrough in the presence of a natural fracture that partially penetrates the caprock; however, the caprock would be ineffective for containing CO2 if the fracture fully penetrates caprock. To assess induced fractures, coupled fluid-flow, geomechanical, and fracture mechanics modeling was conducted to model the effect of an induced fracture on the sealing integrity of the caprock. First, a fracture mechanics model was used to generate the injection-induced hydraulic fracture and calculate its dimensions (height, length, width). Then, a fluid-flow model was used to evaluate the impacts of the fracture on caprock sealing effectiveness. A significant observation is that the hydraulic fracture was confined to the reservoir (Rose Run sandstone) and did not extend upward into the caprock because the reservoir has the lower minimum horizontal stress. Our study shows that both natural and induced fractures can affect long term CO2 storage depending on size of natural fracture zone, geological and geomechanical properties of reservoir and caprock formations as well as injection parameters.

  5. Incorporating microbial dormancy dynamics into soil decomposition models to improve quantification of soil carbon dynamics of northern temperate forests

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    He, Yujie [Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN (United States). Dept. of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences; Yang, Jinyan [Univ. of Georgia, Athens, GA (United States). Warnell School of Forestry and Natural Resources; Northeast Forestry Univ., Harbin (China). Center for Ecological Research; Zhuang, Qianlai [Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN (United States). Dept. of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences; Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN (United States). Dept. of Agronomy; Harden, Jennifer W. [U.S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA (United States); McGuire, Anthony D. [Alaska Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, U.S. Geological Survey, Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK (United States). U.S. Geological Survey, Alaska Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit; Liu, Yaling [Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN (United States). Dept. of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences; Wang, Gangsheng [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Climate Change Science Inst. and Environmental Sciences Division; Gu, Lianhong [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Environmental Sciences Division

    2015-11-20

    Soil carbon dynamics of terrestrial ecosystems play a significant role in the global carbon cycle. Microbial-based decomposition models have seen much growth recently for quantifying this role, yet dormancy as a common strategy used by microorganisms has not usually been represented and tested in these models against field observations. Here in this study we developed an explicit microbial-enzyme decomposition model and examined model performance with and without representation of microbial dormancy at six temperate forest sites of different forest types. We then extrapolated the model to global temperate forest ecosystems to investigate biogeochemical controls on soil heterotrophic respiration and microbial dormancy dynamics at different temporal-spatial scales. The dormancy model consistently produced better match with field-observed heterotrophic soil CO2 efflux (RH) than the no dormancy model. Our regional modeling results further indicated that models with dormancy were able to produce more realistic magnitude of microbial biomass (<2% of soil organic carbon) and soil RH (7.5 ± 2.4 PgCyr-1). Spatial correlation analysis showed that soil organic carbon content was the dominating factor (correlation coefficient = 0.4-0.6) in the simulated spatial pattern of soil RH with both models. In contrast to strong temporal and local controls of soil temperature and moisture on microbial dormancy, our modeling results showed that soil carbon-to-nitrogen ratio (C:N) was a major regulating factor at regional scales (correlation coefficient = -0.43 to -0.58), indicating scale-dependent biogeochemical controls on microbial dynamics. Our findings suggest that incorporating microbial dormancy could improve the realism of microbial-based decomposition models and enhance the integration of soil experiments and mechanistically based modeling.

  6. Northern forests, Chapter 7

    Science.gov (United States)

    L.H. Pardo; C.L. Goodale; E.A. Lilleskov; L.H. Geiser

    2011-01-01

    The Northern Forests ecological region spans much of Canada, from Saskatchewan to Newfoundland; its southern portion extends into the northern United States (CEC 1997). The U.S. component includes the northern hardwood and spruce-fir forest types and encompasses parts of the Northeast (mountainous regions in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut,...

  7. Application of a bioeconomic model for supporting the management process of the small pelagic fishery in the Veneto Region, northern Adriatic Sea, Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Silvia Silvestri

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available We explore the sustainability of the small pelagics fishery in the northern Adriatic sea, northeastern Italy, by means of a bioeconomic simulation model. This model reproduces the biological and economic conditions in which the fisheries occur. Starting from an initial condition (2004, the simulation model incorporates the biological and economic processes of the resources and the fishing fleet and computes the most probable future trajectory of the system under different management conditions. We analysed the projection of selected indicators (biomass, recruitment, catches, profits under four different management scenarios based on effort control, and we assessed the performance of these management measures against the current situation. The four scenarios were: i increase in fuel price, ii reduction in fuel price, iii limiting the number of days at sea, and iv extending the fishing period. Each management event was introduced in the third year of the simulation. For each scenario a stochastic simulation was carried out. Our results show that the impact of each management measure tested was not homogeneous across the fleet. In particular, comparatively smaller vessels generally display narrower profit margins and tend to be more sensitive to negative shocks, reinforcing the idea that management measures should be calibrated by stratifying the fleet before implementation.

  8. Using Coupled Models to Study the Effects of River Discharge on Biogeochemical Cycling and Hypoxia in the Northern Gulf of Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Penta, Bradley; Ko, D.; Gould, Richard W.; Arnone, Robert A.; Greene, R.; Lehrter, J.; Hagy, James; Schaeffer, B.; Murrell, M.; Kurtz, J.; hide

    2009-01-01

    We describe emerging capabilities to understand physical processes and biogeoehemical cycles in coastal waters through the use of satellites, numerical models, and ship observations. Emerging capabilities provide significantly improved ability to model ecological systems and the impact of environmental management actions on them. The complex interaction of physical and biogeoehemical processes responsible for hypoxic events requires an integrated approach to research, monitoring, and modeling in order to fully define the processes leading to hypoxia. Our efforts characterizes the carbon cycle associated with river plumes and the export of organic matter and nutrients form coastal Louisiana wetlands and embayments in a spatially and temporally intensive manner previously not possible. Riverine nutrients clearly affect ecosystems in the northern Gulf of Mexico as evidenced in the occurrence of regional hypoxia events. Less known and largely unqualified is the export of organic matter and nutrients from the large areas of disappearing coastal wetlands and large embayments adjacent to the Louisiana Continental Shelf. This project provides new methods to track the river plume along the shelf and to estimate the rate of export of suspended inorganic and organic paniculate matter and dissolved organic matter form coastal habitats of south Louisiana.

  9. Construction, calibration, and validation of the RBM10 water temperature model for the Trinity River, northern California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Edward C.; Perry, Russell W.; Risley, John C.; Som, Nicholas A.; Hetrick, Nicholas J.

    2016-03-31

    We constructed a one-dimensional daily averaged water-temperature model to simulate Trinity River temperatures for 1980–2013. The purpose of this model is to assess effects of water-management actions on water temperature and to provide water temperature inputs for a salmon population dynamics model. Simulated meteorological data, observed streamflow data, and observed water temperatures were used as model inputs to simulate a continuous 34-year time series of historical daily mean water temperature at eight locations along 112.2 river miles from Lewiston Dam near Weaverville, California, downstream to the Klamath River confluence. To demonstrate the utility of the model to inform management actions, we simulated three management alternatives to assess the effects of bypass flow augmentation in a drought year, 1994, and compared those results to the simulated historical baseline, referred to as the “No Action” alternative scenario. Augmentation flows from the Lewiston Dam bypass consist of temperature-controlled releases capable of cooling downstream water temperatures in hot times of the year, which can reduce the probability of disease outbreaks in fish populations. Outputs from the Trinity River water-temperature model were then used as inputs to an existing water-temperature model of the Klamath River to evaluate the effect of augmentation flow releases on water temperatures in the lower Klamath River. 

  10. Non-chemistry coupled PM10 modeling in Chiang Mai City, Northern Thailand: A fast operational approach for aerosol forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macatangay, Ronald; Bagtasa, Gerry; Sonkaew, Thiranan

    2017-09-01

    The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF v. 3.7) model was applied to model PM10 data in Chiang Mai city for 10-days during a high haze event utilizing updated land use categories from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). A higher resolution meteorological lateral boundary condition (from 1 degree to 0.25 degree) was also used from the NCEP GDAS/FNL Global Tropospheric Analyses and Forecast Grid system. A 3-category urban canopy model was also added and the Thompson aerosol-aware microphysics parameterization scheme was used to model the aerosol number concentrations that were later converted to PM10 concentrations. Aerosol number concentration monthly climatology was firstly used as initial and lateral boundary conditions to model PM10 concentrations. These were compared to surface data obtained from two stations of the Pollution Control Department (PCD) of Thailand. The results from the modeled PM10 concentrations could not capture the variability (r = 0.29; 0.27 for each site) and underestimated a high PM10 spike during the period studied. The authors then added satellite data to the aerosol climatology that improved the comparison with observations (r = 0.45; 43). However, both model runs still were not able to capture the high PM10 concentration event. This requires further investigation.

  11. Simulating anchovy's full life cycle in the northern Aegean Sea (eastern Mediterranean): A coupled hydro-biogeochemical-IBM model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Politikos, D.; Somarakis, S.; Tsiaras, K. P.; Giannoulaki, M.; Petihakis, G.; Machias, A.; Triantafyllou, G.

    2015-11-01

    A 3-D full life cycle population model for the North Aegean Sea (NAS) anchovy stock is presented. The model is two-way coupled with a hydrodynamic-biogeochemical model (POM-ERSEM). The anchovy life span is divided into seven life stages/age classes. Embryos and early larvae are passive particles, but subsequent stages exhibit active horizontal movements based on specific rules. A bioenergetics model simulates the growth in both the larval and juvenile/adult stages, while the microzooplankton and mesozooplankton fields of the biogeochemical model provide the food for fish consumption. The super-individual approach is adopted for the representation of the anchovy population. A dynamic egg production module, with an energy allocation algorithm, is embedded in the bioenergetics equation and produces eggs based on a new conceptual model for anchovy vitellogenesis. A model simulation for the period 2003-2006 with realistic initial conditions reproduced well the magnitude of population biomass and daily egg production estimated from acoustic and daily egg production method (DEPM) surveys, carried out in the NAS during June 2003-2006. Model simulated adult and egg habitats were also in good agreement with observed spatial distributions of acoustic biomass and egg abundance in June. Sensitivity simulations were performed to investigate the effect of different formulations adopted for key processes, such as reproduction and movement. The effect of the anchovy population on plankton dynamics was also investigated, by comparing simulations adopting a two-way or a one-way coupling of the fish with the biogeochemical model.

  12. Estimation of malaria incidence in northern Namibia in 2009 using Bayesian conditional-autoregressive spatial-temporal models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alegana, Victor A; Atkinson, Peter M; Wright, Jim A; Kamwi, Richard; Uusiku, Petrina; Katokele, Stark; Snow, Robert W; Noor, Abdisalan M

    2013-12-01

    As malaria transmission declines, it becomes increasingly important to monitor changes in malaria incidence rather than prevalence. Here, a spatio-temporal model was used to identify constituencies with high malaria incidence to guide malaria control. Malaria cases were assembled across all age groups along with several environmental covariates. A Bayesian conditional-autoregressive model was used to model the spatial and temporal variation of incidence after adjusting for test positivity rates and health facility utilisation. Of the 144,744 malaria cases recorded in Namibia in 2009, 134,851 were suspected and 9893 were parasitologically confirmed. The mean annual incidence based on the Bayesian model predictions was 13 cases per 1000 population with the highest incidence predicted for constituencies bordering Angola and Zambia. The smoothed maps of incidence highlight trends in disease incidence. For Namibia, the 2009 maps provide a baseline for monitoring the targets of pre-elimination. Copyright © 2013 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  13. Application of a modeling approach to designate soil and soil organic carbon loss to wind erosion on long-term monitoring sites (BDF) in Northern Germany

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nerger, Rainer; Funk, Roger; Cordsen, Eckhard; Fohrer, Nicola

    2017-04-01

    Soil organic carbon (SOC) loss is a serious problem in maize monoculture areas of Northern Germany. Sites of the soil monitoring network (SMN) "Boden-Dauerbeobachtung" show long-term soil and SOC losses, which cannot be explained by conventional SOC balances nor by other non-Aeolian causes. Using a process-based model, the main objective was to determine whether these losses can be explained by wind erosion. In the long-term context of 10 years, wind erosion was not measured directly but often observed. A suitable estimation approach linked high-quality soil/farming monitoring data with wind erosion modeling results. The model SWEEP, validated for German sandy soils, was selected using 10-minute wind speed data. Two similar local SMN study sites were compared, however, site A was characterized by high SOC loss and often affected by wind erosion, while the reference site B was not. At site A soil mass and SOC stock decreased by 49.4 and 2.44 kg m-2 from 1999 to 2009. Using SWEEP, a total soil loss of 48.9 kg m-2 resulted for 16 erosion events (max. single event 12.6 kg m-2). A share of 78% was transported by suspension with a SOC enrichment ratio (ER) of 2.96 (saltation ER 0.98), comparable to the literature. At the reference site measured and modeled topsoil losses were minimal. The good agreement between monitoring and modeling results suggested that wind erosion caused significant long-term soil and SOC losses. The approach uses results of prior studies and is applicable to similar well-studied sites without other noteworthy SOC losses.

  14. Chemical evolution of groundwater near a sinkhole lake, northern Florida: 2. Chemical patterns, mass-transfer modeling, and rates of chemical reactions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katz, Brian G.; Plummer, Niel; Busenberg, Eurybiades; Revesz, Kinga M.; Jones, Blair F.; Lee, Terrie M.

    1995-01-01

    Chemical patterns along evolutionary groundwater flow paths in silicate and carbonate aquifers were interpreted using solute tracers, carbon and sulfur isotopes, and mass balance reaction modeling for a complex hydrologic system involving groundwater inflow to and outflow from a sinkhole lake in northern Florida. Rates of dominant reactions along defined flow paths were estimated from modeled mass transfer and ages obtained from CFC-modeled recharge dates. Groundwater upgradient from Lake Barco remains oxic as it moves downward, reacting with silicate minerals in a system open to carbon dioxide (CO2), producing only small increases in dissolved species. Beneath and downgradient of Lake Barco the oxic groundwater mixes with lake water leakage in a highly reducing, silicate-carbonate mineral environment. A mixing model, developed for anoxic groundwater downgradient from the lake, accounted for the observed chemical and isotopic composition by combining different proportions of lake water leakage and infiltrating meteoric water. The evolution of major ion chemistry and the 13C isotopic composition of dissolved carbon species in groundwater downgradient from the lake can be explained by the aerobic oxidation of organic matter in the lake, anaerobic microbial oxidation of organic carbon, and incongruent dissolution of smectite minerals to kaolinite. The dominant process for the generation of methane was by the CO2 reduction pathway based on the isotopic composition of hydrogen (δ2H(CH4) = −186 to −234‰) and carbon (δ13C(CH4) = −65.7 to −72.3‰). Rates of microbial metabolism of organic matter, estimated from the mass transfer reaction models, ranged from 0.0047 to 0.039 mmol L−1 yr−1 for groundwater downgradient from the lake.

  15. A hydrological-economic model for sustainable groundwater use in sparse-data drylands: Application to the Amtoudi Oasis in southern Morocco, northern Sahara.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alcalá, Francisco J; Martínez-Valderrama, Jaime; Robles-Marín, Pedro; Guerrera, Francesco; Martín-Martín, Manuel; Raffaelli, Giuliana; de León, Julián Tejera; Asebriy, Lahcen

    2015-12-15

    A hydrological-economic model is introduced to describe the dynamics of groundwater-dependent economics (agriculture and tourism) for sustainable use in sparse-data drylands. The Amtoudi Oasis, a remote area in southern Morocco, in the northern Sahara attractive for tourism and with evidence of groundwater degradation, was chosen to show the model operation. Governing system variables were identified and put into action through System Dynamics (SD) modeling causal diagrams to program basic formulations into a model having two modules coupled by the nexus 'pumping': (1) the hydrological module represents the net groundwater balance (G) dynamics; and (2) the economic module reproduces the variation in the consumers of water, both the population and tourists. The model was operated under similar influx of tourists and different scenarios of water availability, such as the wet 2009-2010 and the average 2010-2011 hydrological years. The rise in international tourism is identified as the main driving force reducing emigration and introducing new social habits in the population, in particular concerning water consumption. Urban water allotment (PU) was doubled for less than a 100-inhabitant net increase in recent decades. The water allocation for agriculture (PI), the largest consumer of water, had remained constant for decades. Despite that the 2-year monitoring period is not long enough to draw long-term conclusions, groundwater imbalance was reflected by net aquifer recharge (R) less than PI+PU (G<0) in the average year 2010-2011, with net lateral inflow from adjacent Cambrian formations being the largest recharge component. R is expected to be much less than PI+PU in recurrent dry spells. Some low-technology actions are tentatively proposed to mitigate groundwater degradation, such as: wastewater capture, treatment, and reuse for irrigation; storm-water harvesting for irrigation; and active maintenance of the irrigation system to improve its efficiency. Copyright

  16. Integrating the effects of salinity on the physiology of the eastern oyster, Crassostrea virginica, in the northern Gulf of Mexico through a Dynamic Energy Budget model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lavaud, Romain; LaPeyre, Megan K.; Casas, Sandra M.; Bacher, C.; La Peyre, Jerome F.

    2017-01-01

    We present a Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) model for the eastern oyster, Crassostrea virginica, which enables the inclusion of salinity as a third environmental variable, on top of the standard foodr and temperature variables. Salinity changes have various effects on the physiology of oysters, potentially altering filtration and respiration rates, and ultimately impacting growth, reproduction and mortality. We tested different hypotheses as to how to include these effects in a DEB model for C. virginica. Specifically, we tested two potential mechanisms to explain changes in oyster shell growth (cm), tissue dry weight (g) and gonad dry weight (g) when salinity moves away from the ideal range: 1) a negative effect on filtration rate and 2) an additional somatic maintenance cost. Comparative simulations of shell growth, dry tissue biomass and dry gonad weight in two monitored sites in coastal Louisiana experiencing salinity from 0 to 28 were statistically analyzed to determine the best hypothesis. Model parameters were estimated through the covariation method, using literature data and a set of specifically designed ecophysiological experiments. The model was validated through independent field studies in estuaries along the northern Gulf of Mexico. Our results suggest that salinity impacts C. virginica’s energy budget predominantly through effects on filtration rate. With an overwhelming number of environmental factors impacting organisms, and increasing exposure to novel and extreme conditions, the mechanistic nature of the DEB model with its ability to incorporate more than the standard food and temperature variables provides a powerful tool to verify hypotheses and predict individual organism performance across a range of conditions.

  17. Using a coupled groundwater/surfacewater model to predict climate-change impacts to lakes in the Trout Lake watershed, Northern Wisconsin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walker, John F.; Hunt, Randall J.; Markstrom, Steven L.; Hay, Lauren E.; Doherty, John

    2009-01-01

    A major focus of the U.S. Geological Survey’s Trout Lake Water, Energy, and Biogeochemical Budgets (WEBB) project is the development of a watershed model to allow predictions of hydrologic response to future conditions including land-use and climate change. The coupled groundwater/surface-water model GSFLOW was chosen for this purpose because it could easily incorporate an existing groundwater flow model and it provides for simulation of surface-water processes. The Trout Lake watershed in northern Wisconsin is underlain by a highly conductive outwash sand aquifer. In this area, streamflow is dominated by groundwater contributions; however, surface runoff occurs during intense rainfall periods and spring snowmelt. Surface runoff also occurs locally near stream/lake areas where the unsaturated zone is thin. A diverse data set, collected from 1992 to 2007 for the Trout Lake WEBB project and the co-located and NSF-funded North Temperate Lakes LTER project, includes snowpack, solar radiation, potential evapotranspiration, lake levels, groundwater levels, and streamflow. The timeseries processing software TSPROC (Doherty 2003) was used to distill the large time series data set to a smaller set of observations and summary statistics that captured the salient hydrologic information. The timeseries processing reduced hundreds of thousands of observations to less than 5,000. Model calibration included specific predictions for several lakes in the study area using the PEST parameter estimation suite of software (Doherty 2007). The calibrated model was used to simulate the hydrologic response in the study lakes to a variety of climate change scenarios culled from the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Solomon et al. 2007). Results from the simulations indicate climate change could result in substantial changes to the lake levels and components of the hydrologic budget of a seepage lake in the flow system. For a drainage lake

  18. Modelling nitrogen in the Yeşilirmak River catchment in Northern Turkey: impacts of future climate and environmental change and implications for nutrient management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hadjikakou, Michalis; Whitehead, Paul G; Jin, Li; Futter, Martyn; Hadjinicolaou, Panos; Shahgedanova, Maria

    2011-05-15

    Recent research in catchments of rapidly developing countries such as Brazil and China suggests that many catchments of the developing world are already showing signs of nitrogen pollution reminiscent of past experiences in developed countries. This paper looks at both the individual and combined effects of future climate change and other likely environmental changes on in-stream nitrate concentrations in a catchment in Northern Turkey. A model chain comprised of simulated future temperature and precipitation from a Regional Circulation Model (RCM), a conceptual hydrological model (HBV) and a widely tested integrated catchment nitrogen model (INCA-N) is used to model future changes in nitrate concentrations. Two future periods (2021-2050 and 2069-2098) are compared to the 1961-1990 baseline period in order to assess the effectiveness of several possible interventions available to catchment authorities. The simulations show that in the urbanised part of the catchment, the effects of climate change and other environmental changes act in the same direction, leading to peak nitrate concentrations of 7.5 mg N/l for the 2069-2098 period, which corresponds to a doubling of the baseline values. Testing different available policy options reveals that the installation of wastewater treatment works (WWTWs) in all major settlements of the catchment could ensure nitrate levels are kept at near their baseline values for the 2021-2050 period. Nevertheless, a combination of measures including WWTWs, meadow creation, international agreements to reduce atmospheric N concentrations and controls on agricultural practises will be required for 2069-2098. The approach presented in this article could be employed in order to anticipate future pollution problems and to test appropriate solutions, some of which will necessitate international co-operation, in other catchments around the world. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  19. Evaluation of CMIP5 models over the northern North Atlantic in the context of forthcoming paleoclimatic reconstructions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pyrina, Maria; Wagner, Sebastian; Zorita, Eduardo

    2017-12-01

    We evaluated 11 coupled climate model simulations regarding the spatial structures of sea-surface temperature (SST) variability in the North Atlantic, during the second half of the twentieth century. The subset of models includes CCSM4, CSIRO, CanESM and MPI-ESM, participating in the fifth phase of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project. The evaluation was performed to determine the potential of these models to be used at a later stage as test beds for the evaluation of climate field reconstruction methods that will use the extremely long-lived bivalve mollusk Arctica islandica, an outstanding paleoclimate archive for the boreal and temperate North Atlantic (Schöne, Glob Planet Change 111:199-225, 2013). Several validation metrics such as the mean bias, variance, spatial and temporal co-variability and trends of the North Atlantic summer SSTs showed that some of the models can be used to test paleoclimatic reconstructions. However, most models showed shortcomings in simulating the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Concerning the co-variability of summer SSTs between proxy sites and the whole North Atlantic SST field, we found that these proxy locations contain a SST signal that might represent a (basin-wide) signal for the north-eastern North Atlantic basin.

  20. Investigation of climate change impact on water resources for an Alpine basin in northern Italy: implications for evapotranspiration modeling complexity.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giovanni Ravazzani

    Full Text Available Assessing the future effects of climate change on water availability requires an understanding of how precipitation and evapotranspiration rates will respond to changes in atmospheric forcing. Use of simplified hydrological models is required because of lack of meteorological forcings with the high space and time resolutions required to model hydrological processes in mountains river basins, and the necessity of reducing the computational costs. The main objective of this study was to quantify the differences between a simplified hydrological model, which uses only precipitation and temperature to compute the hydrological balance when simulating the impact of climate change, and an enhanced version of the model, which solves the energy balance to compute the actual evapotranspiration. For the meteorological forcing of future scenario, at-site bias-corrected time series based on two regional climate models were used. A quantile-based error-correction approach was used to downscale the regional climate model simulations to a point scale and to reduce its error characteristics. The study shows that a simple temperature-based approach for computing the evapotranspiration is sufficiently accurate for performing hydrological impact investigations of climate change for the Alpine river basin which was studied.

  1. A Semi-Analytic Model for Estimating Total Suspended Sediment Concentration in Turbid Coastal Waters of Northern Western Australia Using MODIS-Aqua 250 m Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Passang Dorji

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Knowledge of the concentration of total suspended sediment (TSS in coastal waters is of significance to marine environmental monitoring agencies to determine the turbidity of water that serve as a proxy to estimate the availability of light at depth for benthic habitats. TSS models applicable to data collected by satellite sensors can be used to determine TSS with reasonable accuracy and of adequate spatial and temporal resolution to be of use for coastal water quality monitoring. Thus, a study is presented here where we develop a semi-analytic sediment model (SASM applicable to any sensor with red and near infrared (NIR bands. The calibration and validation of the SASM using bootstrap and cross-validation methods showed that the SASM applied to Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS-Aqua band 1 data retrieved TSS with a root mean square error (RMSE and mean averaged relative error (MARE of 5.75 mg/L and 33.33% respectively. The application of the SASM over our study region using MODIS-Aqua band 1 data showed that the SASM can be used to monitor the on-going, post and pre-dredging activities and identify daily TSS anomalies that are caused by natural and anthropogenic processes in coastal waters of northern Western Australia.

  2. An upper-mantle S-wave velocity model for Northern Europe from Love and Rayleigh group velocities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weidle, Christian; Maupin, Valérie

    2008-12-01

    A model of upper-mantle S-wave velocity and transverse anisotropy beneath northwestern Europe is presented, based on regional surface wave observations. Group velocities for both Love and Rayleigh surface waves are measured on waveform data from international and regional data archives (including temporary deployments) and then inverted for group velocity maps, using a method accounting for Fresnel zone sensitivity. The group velocity variations are larger than in global reference maps, and we are able to resolve unprecedented details. We then apply a linear inversion scheme to invert for local 1-D shear wave velocity profiles which are consequently assembled to a 3-D model. By choosing conservative regularization parameters in the 2-D inversion, we ensure the smoothness of the group velocity maps and hence of the resulting 3-D shear wave speed model. To account for the different tectonic regimes in the study region and investigate the sensitivity of the 1-D inversions to inaccuracies in crustal parameters, we analyse inversions with different reference models of increasing complexity (pure 1-D, 3-D crust/1-D mantle and pure 3-D). We find that all inverted models are very consistent at depths below 70 km. At shallower depths, the constraints put by the reference models, primarily Moho depth which we do not invert for, remain the main cause for uncertainty in our inversion. The final 3-D model shows large variations in S-wave velocity of up to +/-12 per cent. We image an intriguing low-velocity anomaly in the depth range 70-150 km that extends from the Iceland plume beneath the North Atlantic and in a more than 400 km wide channel under Southern Scandinavia. Beneath Southern Norway, the negative perturbations are around 10 per cent with respect to ak135, and a shallowing of the anomaly is indicated which could be related to the sustained uplift of Southern Scandinavia in Neogene times. Furthermore, our upper-mantle model reveals good alignment to ancient plate

  3. Advancing the climate data driven crop-modeling studies in the dry areas of Northern Syria and Lebanon: An important first step for assessing impact of future climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dixit, Prakash N., E-mail: p.dixit@cgiar.org; Telleria, Roberto

    2015-04-01

    Inter-annual and seasonal variability in climatic parameters, most importantly rainfall, have potential to cause climate-induced risk in long-term crop production. Short-term field studies do not capture the full nature of such risk and the extent to which modifications to crop, soil and water management recommendations may be made to mitigate the extent of such risk. Crop modeling studies driven by long-term daily weather data can predict the impact of climate-induced risk on crop growth and yield however, the availability of long-term daily weather data can present serious constraints to the use of crop models. To tackle this constraint, two weather generators namely, LARS-WG and MarkSim, were evaluated in order to assess their capabilities of reproducing frequency distributions, means, variances, dry spell and wet chains of observed daily precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature, and solar radiation for the eight locations across cropping areas of Northern Syria and Lebanon. Further, the application of generated long-term daily weather data, with both weather generators, in simulating barley growth and yield was also evaluated. We found that overall LARS-WG performed better than MarkSim in generating daily weather parameters and in 50 years continuous simulation of barley growth and yield. Our findings suggest that LARS-WG does not necessarily require long-term e.g., > 30 years observed weather data for calibration as generated results proved to be satisfactory with > 10 years of observed data except in area with higher altitude. Evaluating these weather generators and the ability of generated weather data to perform long-term simulation of crop growth and yield is an important first step to assess the impact of future climate on yields, and to identify promising technologies to make agricultural systems more resilient in the given region. - Highlights: • LARS-WG performed better than MarkSim in generating daily weather parameters. • LARS-WG can serve

  4. Coupling ground and airborne geophysical data with upscaling techniques for regional groundwater modeling of heterogeneous aquifers: Case study of a sedimentary aquifer intruded by volcanic dykes in Northern Ireland

    OpenAIRE

    Dickson, Neil Edwin Matthew; Comte, Jean-Christophe; McKinley, Jennifer; Ofterdinger, Ulrich

    2014-01-01

    In highly heterogeneous aquifer systems, conceptualization of regional groundwater flow models frequently results in the generalization or negligence of aquifer heterogeneities, both of which may result in erroneous model outputs. The calculation of equivalence related to hydrogeological parameters and applied to upscaling provides a means of accounting for measurement scale information but at regional scale. In this study, the Permo-Triassic Lagan Valley strategic aquifer in Northern Ireland...

  5. Simulation of spring barley yield in different climatic zones of Northern and Central Europe. A comparison of nine crop models

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Rötter, R.P.; Palosuo, T.; Kersebaum, K. C.; Angulo, C.; Bindi, M.; Ewert, F.; Ferrise, R.; Hlavinka, P.; Moriondo, M.; Nendel, C.; Olesen, J. E.; Patil, R. H.; Ruget, F.; Takáč, J.; Trnka, Miroslav

    2012-01-01

    Roč. 133, July 2012 (2012), s. 23-36 ISSN 0378-4290 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) ED1.1.00/02.0073 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z60870520 Keywords : Climate * Crop growth simulation * Model comparison * Spring barley * Yield variability * Uncertainty Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 2.474, year: 2012

  6. Physically based dynamic run-out modelling for quantitative debris flow risk assessment: a case study in Tresenda, northern Italy

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Quan Luna, B.; Blahůt, Jan; Camera, C.; Van Westen, C.; Apuani, T.; Jetten, V.; Sterlacchini, S.

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 72, č. 3 (2014), s. 645-661 ISSN 1866-6280 Institutional support: RVO:67985891 Keywords : debris flow * FLO-2D * run-out * quantitative hazard and risk assessment * vulnerability * numerical modelling Subject RIV: DB - Geology ; Mineralogy Impact factor: 1.765, year: 2014

  7. Role of erosion and isostasy in the Cordillera Blanca uplift: Insights from landscape evolution modeling (northern Peru, Andes)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Margirier, Audrey; Braun, Jean; Robert, Xavier; Audin, Laurence

    2018-03-01

    The processes driving uplift and exhumation of the highest Peruvian peaks (the Cordillera Blanca) are not well understood. Uplift and exhumation seem closely linked to the formation and movement on the Cordillera Blanca normal fault (CBNF) that delimits and shapes the western flank of the Cordillera Blanca. Several models have been proposed to explain the presence of this major normal fault in a compressional setting, but the CBNF and the Cordillera Blanca recent rapid uplift remain enigmatic. Whereas the Cordillera Blanca morphology demonstrates important erosion and thus a significant mass of rocks removal, the impact of erosion and isostasy on the evolution of the Cordillera Blanca uplift rates has never been explored. We address the role of erosion and associated flexural rebound in the uplift and exhumation of the Cordillera Blanca with numerical modeling of landscape evolution. We perform inversions of the broad features of the present-day topography, total exhumation and thermochronological data using a landscape evolution model (FastScape) to provide constraints on the erosion efficiency factor, the uplift rate and the temperature gradient. Our results evidence the not negligible contribution of erosion and associated flexural rebound to the uplift of the Cordillera Blanca and allow us to question the models previously proposed for the formation of the CBNF.

  8. High resolution niche models of malaria vectors in northern Tanzania: a new capacity to predict malaria risk?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manisha A Kulkarni

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Malaria transmission rates in Africa can vary dramatically over the space of a few kilometres. This spatial heterogeneity reflects variation in vector mosquito habitat and presents an important obstacle to the efficient allocation of malaria control resources. Malaria control is further complicated by combinations of vector species that respond differently to control interventions. Recent modelling innovations make it possible to predict vector distributions and extrapolate malaria risk continentally, but these risk mapping efforts have not yet bridged the spatial gap to guide on-the-ground control efforts. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We used Maximum Entropy with purpose-built, high resolution land cover data and other environmental factors to model the spatial distributions of the three dominant malaria vector species in a 94,000 km(2 region of east Africa. Remotely sensed land cover was necessary in each vector's niche model. Seasonality of precipitation and maximum annual temperature also contributed to niche models for Anopheles arabiensis and An. funestus s.l. (AUC 0.989 and 0.991, respectively, but cold season precipitation and elevation were important for An. gambiae s.s. (AUC 0.997. Although these niche models appear highly accurate, the critical test is whether they improve predictions of malaria prevalence in human populations. Vector habitat within 1.5 km of community-based malaria prevalence measurements interacts with elevation to substantially improve predictions of Plasmodium falciparum prevalence in children. The inclusion of the mechanistic link between malaria prevalence and vector habitat greatly improves the precision and accuracy of prevalence predictions (r(2 = 0.83 including vector habitat, or r(2 = 0.50 without vector habitat. Predictions including vector habitat are unbiased (observations vs. model predictions of prevalence: slope = 1.02. Using this model, we generate a high resolution map of predicted

  9. Anticipating the severity of the fire season in Northern Portugal using statistical models based on meteorological indices of fire danger

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nunes, Sílvia A.; DaCamara, Carlos C.; Turkman, Kamil F.; Ermida, Sofia L.; Calado, Teresa J.

    2017-04-01

    Like in other regions of Mediterranean Europe, climate and weather are major drivers of fire activity in Portugal. The aim of the present study is to assess the role played by meteorological factors on inter-annual variability of burned area over a region of Portugal characterized by large fire activity. Monthly cumulated values of burned area in August are obtained from the fire database of ICNF, the Portuguese authority for forests. The role of meteorological factors is characterized by means of Daily Severity Rating, DSR, an index of meteorological fire danger, which is derived from meteorological fields as obtained from ECMWF Interim Reanalysis. The study area is characterized by the predominance of forest, with high percentages of maritime pine and eucalyptus, two species with high flammability in summer. The time series of recorded burned area in August during 1980-2011 is highly correlated (correlation coefficient of 0.93) with the one for whole Portugal. First, a normal distribution model is fitted to the 32-year sample of decimal logarithms of monthly burned area. The model is improved by introducing two covariates:(1) the top-down meteorological factor (DSRtd) which consists of daily cumulated values of DSR since April 1 to July 31 and may be viewed as the cumulated stress on vegetation due to meteorological conditions during the pre-fire season; (2) the bottom-up factor (DSRbu) which consists of the square root of the mean of the squared daily deviations (restricted to days with positive departures of DSR from the corresponding long term mean) and may be viewed as the contribution of days characterized by extreme weather conditions favoring the onset and spreading of wildfires. Three different statistical models are then developed: the "climate anomaly" model, using DSRtd as covariate, the "weather anomaly", using DSRbu as covariate, and the "combined" model using both variables as covariates. These models are used to define background fire danger, fire

  10. Performance model to assist solar thermal power plant siting in northern Chile based on backup fuel consumption

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Larrain, Teresita; Escobar, Rodrigo; Vergara, Julio [Departamento de Ingenieria Mecanica y Metalurgica, Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile, Vicuna Mackenna 4860, Macul, Santiago (Chile)

    2010-08-15

    In response to environmental awareness, Chile introduced sustainability goals in its electricity law. Power producers must deliver 5% from renewable sources by 2010 and 10% by 2024. The Chilean desert has a large available surface with one of the highest radiation levels and clearest skies in the World. These factors imply that solar power is an option for this task. However, a commercial plant requires a fossil fuel system to backup the sunlight intermittency. The authors developed a thermodynamical model to estimate the backup fraction needed in a 100 MW hybrid -solar-fossil- parabolic trough power plant. This paper presents the model aiming to predicting the performance and exploring its usefulness in assisting site selection among four locations. Since solar radiation data are only available in a monthly average, we introduced two approaches to feed the model. One data set provided an average month with identical days throughout and the other one considered an artificial month of different daylight profiles on an hourly basis for the same monthly average. We recommend a best plant location based on minimum fossil fuel backup, contributing to optimal siting from the energy perspective. Utilities will refine their policy goals more closely when a precise solar energy data set becomes available. (author)

  11. Trophic modeling of the Northern Humboldt Current Ecosystem, Part I: Comparing trophic linkages under La Niña and El Niño conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tam, Jorge; Taylor, Marc H.; Blaskovic, Verónica; Espinoza, Pepe; Michael Ballón, R.; Díaz, Erich; Wosnitza-Mendo, Claudia; Argüelles, Juan; Purca, Sara; Ayón, Patricia; Quipuzcoa, Luis; Gutiérrez, Dimitri; Goya, Elisa; Ochoa, Noemí; Wolff, Matthias

    2008-10-01

    The El Niño of 1997-98 was one of the strongest warming events of the past century; among many other effects, it impacted phytoplankton along the Peruvian coast by changing species composition and reducing biomass. While responses of the main fish resources to this natural perturbation are relatively well known, understanding the ecosystem response as a whole requires an ecotrophic multispecies approach. In this work, we construct trophic models of the Northern Humboldt Current Ecosystem (NHCE) and compare the La Niña (LN) years in 1995-96 with the El Niño (EN) years in 1997-98. The model area extends from 4°S-16°S and to 60 nm from the coast. The model consists of 32 functional groups of organisms and differs from previous trophic models of the Peruvian system through: (i) division of plankton into size classes to account for EN-associated changes and feeding preferences of small pelagic fish, (ii) increased division of demersal groups and separation of life history stages of hake, (iii) inclusion of mesopelagic fish, and (iv) incorporation of the jumbo squid ( Dosidicus gigas), which became abundant following EN. Results show that EN reduced the size and organization of energy flows of the NHCE, but the overall functioning (proportion of energy flows used for respiration, consumption by predators, detritus and export) of the ecosystem was maintained. The reduction of diatom biomass during EN forced omnivorous planktivorous fish to switch to a more zooplankton-dominated diet, raising their trophic level. Consequently, in the EN model the trophic level increased for several predatory groups (mackerel, other large pelagics, sea birds, pinnipeds) and for fishery catch. A high modeled biomass of macrozooplankton was needed to balance the consumption by planktivores, especially during EN condition when observed diatoms biomass diminished dramatically. Despite overall lower planktivorous fish catches, the higher primary production required-to-catch ratio implied a

  12. Sensitivity of mesoscale modeling of smoke direct radiative effect to the emission inventory: a case study in northern sub-Saharan African region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Feng; Wang, Jun; Yang, Zhifeng; Ge, Cui; Ichoku, Charles; Hyer, Edward J; Da Silva, Arlindo; Su, Shenjian; Zhang, Xiaoyang; Kondragunta, Shobha; Kaiser, Johannes W; Wiedinmyer, Christine

    2014-01-01

    An ensemble approach is used to examine the sensitivity of smoke loading and smoke direct radiative effect in the atmosphere to uncertainties in smoke emission estimates. Seven different fire emission inventories are applied independently to WRF-Chem model (v3.5) with the same model configuration (excluding dust and other emission sources) over the northern sub-Saharan African (NSSA) biomass-burning region. Results for November and February 2010 are analyzed, respectively representing the start and end of the biomass burning season in the study region. For February 2010, estimates of total smoke emission vary by a factor of 12, but only differences by factors of 7 or less are found in the simulated regional (15°W–42°E, 13°S–17°N) and monthly averages of column PM 2.5 loading, surface PM 2.5 concentration, aerosol optical depth (AOD), smoke radiative forcing at the top-of-atmosphere and at the surface, and air temperature at 2 m and at 700 hPa. The smaller differences in these simulated variables may reflect the atmospheric diffusion and deposition effects to dampen the large difference in smoke emissions that are highly concentrated in areas much smaller than the regional domain of the study. Indeed, at the local scale, large differences (up to a factor of 33) persist in simulated smoke-related variables and radiative effects including semi-direct effect. Similar results are also found for November 2010, despite differences in meteorology and fire activity. Hence, biomass burning emission uncertainties have a large influence on the reliability of model simulations of atmospheric aerosol loading, transport, and radiative impacts, and this influence is largest at local and hourly-to-daily scales. Accurate quantification of smoke effects on regional climate and air quality requires further reduction of emission uncertainties, particularly for regions of high fire concentrations such as NSSA. (paper)

  13. Composition and Dynamics of Migratory and Resident Avian Population in Wintering Wetlands from Northern India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kaushalendra Kumar JHA

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Twelve wetlands occurring in four different ecozones in Uttar Pradesh (UP, India, were selected for studying the winter composition and dynamics of avian populations. Wetland information was collected from office records of the UP Forest department. Bird populations were estimated by transect method and block-in-flock-in-sector method for woodland and aquatic birds, respectively. Across the twelve selected wetlands a total of 486,182 individuals belonging to 161 species of birds on 15,592 ha were recorded during the winter of 2010-11. The data were analyzed to assess the relationship between wetland characteristics and avian populations. Aquatic vegetation, surrounding vegetation, water availability and climate were found as important factors related to avian populations. January was found to be the peak of bird assemblage, while winter times before and after January were the waxing and waning period, respectively. Species richness and species diversity of aquatic birds varied between 18-58 and 1.90-3.20, respectively, and of all bird species between 23-109, and 1.73-3.81, respectively. The density of aquatic birds ranged between 17-384 ha-1. The most common migratory birds in wetlands were Northern Pintail, Common Teal and Greylag Goose. Common resident birds included Asian Openbill, Darter, Little Egret, Common Coot, Little Cormorant, Grey Heron, Purple Heron, Indian Pond Heron, Common Moorhen, Purple Swamphen, Cattle Egret, Indian Sarus Crane and White-throated Kingfisher. For improved conservation of aquatic avian fauna, management prescriptions are suggested for wetlands under current management which could also be extended to other wetlands, whereas conservation of avian fauna to be the emphasis.

  14. Long Term Subsidence Analysis and Soil Fracturing Zonation Based on InSAR Time Series Modelling in Northern Zona Metropolitana del Valle de Mexico

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriela Llanet Siles

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available In this study deformation processes in northern Zona Metropolitana del Valle de Mexico (ZMVM are evaluated by means of advanced multi-temporal interferometry. ERS and ENVISAT time series, covering approximately an 11-year period (between 1999 and 2010, were produced showing mainly linear subsidence behaviour for almost the entire area under study, but increasing rates that reach up to 285 mm/yr. Important non-linear deformation was identified in certain areas, presumably suggesting interaction between subsidence and other processes. Thus, a methodology for identification of probable fracturing zones based on discrimination and modelling of the non-linear (quadratic function component is presented. This component was mapped and temporal subsidence evolution profiles were constructed across areas where notable acceleration (maximum of 8 mm/yr2 or deceleration (maximum of −9 mm/yr2 is found. This methodology enables location of potential soil fractures that could impact relevant infrastructure such as the Tunel Emisor Oriente (TEO (along the structure rates exceed 200 mm/yr. Additionally, subsidence behaviour during wet and dry seasons is tackled in partially urbanized areas. This paper provides useful information for geological risk assessment in the area.

  15. Extensional Volcanism of the Taos Plateau Volcanic Field, Northern Rio Grande Rift, USA: New Insights from Geologic Mapping, 40Ar/39Ar Geochronology, Geochemistry and Geophysical Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, R. A.; Turner, K. J.; Cosca, M. A.; Drenth, B.; Grauch, V. J. S.

    2016-12-01

    The Pliocene Taos Plateau Volcanic Field (TPVF) is the largest volcanic field of the Rio Grande rift. Deposits of the TPVF are distributed across 4500 km2 in the southern part of the 11,500 km2 San Luis Valley in southern Colorado and northern New Mexico constituting a major component of the structural San Luis Basin (SLB) fill. Exposed deposit thicknesses range from a few meters near the distal termini of basaltic lava flows to 240 m in the Rio Grande gorge near Taos, NM. New geologic mapping and 100 high-resolution 40Ar/39Ar age determinations help identify a complex distribution of >50 exposed eruptive centers ranging in composition from basalt to rhyolite. Total eruptive volume, estimated from geologic map relations, geophysical modeling of basin geometry and subsurface distribution of basaltic deposits, are approximately 300 km3; comprising 66% Servilleta Basalt (tholeiite), 3% mildly alkaline trachybasalt & trachyandesite, 12% olivine andesite, 17% dacite, and Guadalupe Mountain/Cerro Negro, 3.9 Ma Ute Mountain, and 3 Ma San Antonio Mountain) reach elevations of 3300 m, 770 m above the valley floor each spatially and temporally associated with fault-bounded sub-basins superposed on the broader structural SLB. Locally, coeval Pliocene fault-slip rates are 2.5 times the long-term rates determined for the SLB confirming the temporal association of local intrabasin extensional faulting and eruptive centers.

  16. Political violence and child adjustment in Northern Ireland: Testing pathways in a social-ecological model including single-and two-parent families.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cummings, E Mark; Schermerhorn, Alice C; Merrilees, Christine E; Goeke-Morey, Marcie C; Shirlow, Peter; Cairns, Ed

    2010-07-01

    Moving beyond simply documenting that political violence negatively impacts children, we tested a social-ecological hypothesis for relations between political violence and child outcomes. Participants were 700 mother-child (M = 12.1 years, SD = 1.8) dyads from 18 working-class, socially deprived areas in Belfast, Northern Ireland, including single- and two-parent families. Sectarian community violence was associated with elevated family conflict and children's reduced security about multiple aspects of their social environment (i.e., family, parent-child relations, and community), with links to child adjustment problems and reductions in prosocial behavior. By comparison, and consistent with expectations, links with negative family processes, child regulatory problems, and child outcomes were less consistent for nonsectarian community violence. Support was found for a social-ecological model for relations between political violence and child outcomes among both single- and two-parent families, with evidence that emotional security and adjustment problems were more negatively affected in single-parent families. The implications for understanding social ecologies of political violence and children's functioning are discussed.

  17. Political violence and child adjustment in Northern Ireland: Testing pathways in a social ecological model including single and two-parent families

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cummings, E. Mark; Schermerhorn, Alice C.; Merrilees, Christine E.; Goeke-Morey, Marcie C.; Shirlow, Peter; Cairns, Ed

    2013-01-01

    Moving beyond simply documenting that political violence negatively impacts children, a social ecological hypothesis for relations between political violence and child outcomes was tested. Participants were 700 mother-child (M=12.1years, SD=1.8) dyads from 18 working class, socially deprived areas in Belfast, Northern Ireland, including single- and two-parent families. Sectarian community violence was associated with elevated family conflict and children’s reduced security about multiple aspects of their social environment (i.e., family, parent-child relations, and community), with links to child adjustment problems and reductions in prosocial behavior. By comparison, and consistent with expectations, links with negative family processes, child regulatory problems and child outcomes were less consistent for nonsectarian community violence. Support was found for a social ecological model for relations between political violence and child outcomes among both single and two parent families, with evidence that emotional security and adjustment problems were more negatively affected in single-parent families. The implications for understanding social ecologies of political violence and children’s functioning are discussed. PMID:20604605

  18. A joint stock assessment for the anchovy stock of the northern and central Adriatic Sea: comparison of two catch-at-age models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Piera Carpi

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus, L. is one of the most important commercial species of the northern and central Adriatic Sea, as well as one of the most productive fisheries in the whole Mediterranean. In the Adriatic Sea the stock of anchovy is shared between Italy, Croatia and Slovenia. A joint stock assessment was carried out using catch data from all the fleets for the time interval 1975-2009. Analyses were performed using estimates of natural mortality at age obtained by means of two different methods and two population dynamics methods based on the analysis of catch-at-age data: Laurec-Sheperd virtual population analysis (VPA and integrated catch-at-age (ICA, both tuned to acoustic estimates of abundance. Gislason’s estimates for natural mortality appeared to be more realistic and were thus preferred for short-lived species. The general trend of biomass and fishing mortality is similar for the two models, highlighting the major collapse of the stock in 1987. Nevertheless, ICA has enough flexibility to combine all the data available without adding too much complexity in comparison with a VPA approach and seems to perform better in terms of the spawning stock biomass/recruitment relationship and diagnostics (i.e. the retrospective pattern. For the stock status, the exploitation rate from ICA is higher than the suggested threshold of 0.4 proposed by Patterson for small pelagic species.

  19. Orthothermographies and 3D modeling as potential tools in ice caves studies: the Peña Castil Ice Cave (Picos de Europa, Northern Spain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fernando Berenguer-Sempere

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Currently there are many studies focused on the investigation of climatic and glaciological condition of ice caves. Here we present another way to address these studies, applying some methods already used in fields other than geomorphology. The versatility and accuracy provided by the use of modern topography and thermography techniques, using Terrestrial Laser Scanner and current thermographic cameras- and the creation of 3D thermographic models and orthothermographies derived from them - is shown to be a useful tool as it is difficult to obtain data from fieldwork and traditional methods used in caves. This paper presents the potential uses of combined TLS and thermographic techniques for monitoring some important climatological parameters in the sensitive periglacial environment of the Iberian Atlantic high mountains: Peña Castil Ice Cave (Picos de Europa, Northern Spain. A systematic application of such combined technologies to these kind of caves, is expected to contribute to a quantitative and concise characterization of the evolution of the ice as shown by the results of this study.

  20. Effects of agriculture crop residue burning on aerosol properties and long-range transport over northern India: A study using satellite data and model simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vijayakumar, K.; Safai, P. D.; Devara, P. C. S.; Rao, S. Vijaya Bhaskara; Jayasankar, C. K.

    2016-09-01

    Agriculture crop residue burning in the tropics is a major source of the global atmospheric aerosols and monitoring their long-range transport is an important element in climate change studies. In this paper, we study the effects of agriculture crop residue burning on aerosol properties and long-range transport over northern India during a smoke event that occurred between 09 and 17 November 2013, with the help of satellite measurements and model simulation data. Satellite data observations on aerosol properties suggested transport of particles from agriculture crop residue burning in Indo-Gangetic Plains (IGP) over large regions. Additionally, ECMWF winds at 850 hPa have been used to trace the source, path and spatial extent of smoke events. Most of the smoke aerosols, during the study period, travel from a west-to-east pathway from the source-to-sink region. Furthermore, aerosol vertical profiles from CALIPSO show a layer of thick smoke extending from surface to an altitude of about 3 km. Smoke aerosols emitted from biomass burning activity from Punjab have been found to be a major contributor to the deterioration of local air quality over the NE Indian region due to their long range transport.

  1. Resolving the deep electrical resistivity structure at Central Pontides, Northern Turkey by three-dimensional magnetotelluric modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Özaydın, Sinan; Bülent Tank, Sabri; Karaş, Mustafa; Sandvol, Eric

    2017-04-01

    Wide-band magnetotelluric (MT) (360 Hz - 1860 sec) data were acquired at 25 sites along a north - south aligned profile cutting across the Central Pontides, which are made up of highly metamorphosed formations and their tectonic boundaries including: a Lower Cretaceous-aged turbidite sequence, Central Pontides Metamorphic Supercomplex (CPMS), North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ) and Izmir-Ankara-Erzincan Suture Zone (IAESZ). Dimensionality analyses over all observation points demonstrated high electrical anisotropy, which indicates complex geological and tectonic structures. This dimensional complexity and presence of the electrically conductive Black Sea augmented the requirement for a three-dimensional analysis. Inverse modeling routines, ModEM (Egbert and Kelbert, 2012) and WSINV3DMT (Siripunvaraporn et al., 2005) were utilized to reveal the geo-electrical implications over this unusually complicated region. Interpretations of the resultant models are summarized as follows: (i) Çangaldaǧ and Domuzdaǧ complexes appear as highly resistive bodies bounded by north dipping faults. (ii) Highly conductive Tosya Basin sediments overlain the ophiolitic materials as a thin cover located at the south of the NAFZ. (iii) North Anatolian Fault and some auxiliary faults within the system exhibit conductive-resistive interfaces that reach to lower crustal levels. (iv) IAESZ is a clear feature marked by the resistivity contrast between NAFZ-related sedimentary basins and Neo-Tethyan ophiolites.

  2. The Investigate Factors on Screening of the Breast Cancer Based on PEN-3 Model in Iranian Northern Women

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seyed Abolhassan Naghibi

    2015-09-01

    Materials and Methods: The present study was cross-sectional. The samples studied were women above 20 years and the sample size was 1416 people. The method of sampling was a random cluster. The tools of data collection questionnaire with 70 questions which approved its content validity and reliability. Data were analyzed by using software of SPSS Ver. 20. Results: The average age of samples was 35.71±6.1. Only 14.3% of samples are regularly conducted to the self-examination. Also, 38.5% of women had a history of the clinical examination. The difference of observed in performance the breast self-examination and clinical breast examination were the statistical significant by variables of rural or urban (P= 0.005, the marital status (P = 0.013 and a background of having breast cancer (P <0.001. The results of the study based on PEN-3 model were showed that there were a statistical significant relationship between the structure of perceptual factors and reinforcing factors (P=0.002 and between the perceptual factors and enabling factors (P=0.006. Conclusion: According to the results of presented, the women`s performance in using the screening was low. Also, the components status of the PEN-3 Model (factors of perceptual, enabling, and reinforcing for the breast cancer screening in women studied were not suitable.

  3. A feasible methodology for groundwater resource modelling for sustainable use in sparse-data drylands: Application to the Amtoudi Oasis in the northern Sahara.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alcalá, Francisco J; Martín-Martín, Manuel; Guerrera, Francesco; Martínez-Valderrama, Jaime; Robles-Marín, Pedro

    2018-03-02

    In a previous paper, the Amtoudi Oasis, a remote area in the northern Sahara in southern Morocco, was chosen to model the dynamics of groundwater-dependent economics under different scenarios of water availability, both the wet 2009-2010 and the average 2010-2011 hydrological years. Groundwater imbalance was reflected by net aquifer recharge (R) less than groundwater allotment for agriculture and urban uses in the average year 2010-2011. Three key groundwater sustainability issues from the hydrologic perspective were raised for future research, which are addressed in this paper. Introducing a feasible methodology for groundwater resource modelling for sustainable use in sparse-data drylands, this paper updates available databases, compiles new databases, and introduces new formulations to: (1) refine the net groundwater balance (W) modelling for years 2009-2010 and 2010-2011, providing the magnitude of net lateral inflow from adjacent formations (R L ), the largest R component contributing to the oasis; (2) evaluate the non-evaporative fraction of precipitation (P) (B) from 1973 onward as a proxy of the potential renewable water resource available for use; and (3) define the critical balance period for variables to reach a comparable stationary condition, as prerequisite for long-term modelling of W. R L was about 0.07-fold P and 0.85-fold R. Historical yearly B-to-P ratios were 0.02 for dry, 0.04 for average, and 0.07 for wet hydrological years; the average yearly P being 124mm. A critical 17-year balance period with stable relative error below 0.1 was defined from the 44-year P and B time-series statistical study. This is the monitoring period proposed for the stationary evaluation of the variables involved in the long-term modelling of W. This paper seeks to offer a feasible methodology for groundwater modelling addressed for planning sustainable water policies in sparse-data drylands. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. Monitoring and modelling for landslide risk mitigation and reduction. The case study of San Benedetto Ullano (Northern Calabria - Italy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Terranova, Oreste G.; Greco, Venanzio R.; Gariano, Stefano L.; Pascale, Stefania; Rago, Valeria; Caloiero, Paola; Iovine, Giulio G. R.

    2016-04-01

    movements caused severe damage to roads and infrastructure. The second crisis ended up in late June: the hydrological model FLaIR was then successfully tested against the known dates of activation of the slope movement, by using a local rain series [3]. Meanwhile, technical support was being assured to the Municipality to optimize geological prospections, monitoring, and design of remedial works of a master plan. A third activation occurred during the night of 15 March 2013, when planned remedial works had not been completed yet. By applying the hydrological model SAKe [4, 5], this activation could be predicted, again permitting the prompt adoption of mitigation measures. Such activation was triggered by rains smaller and shorter than those that caused previous activations, perhaps indicating an apparent increasing fragility of the slope. Changes in slope stability conditions before and after the construction of the remedial works are being investigated. Critical rain conditions and groundwater levels for landslide activation are in fact expected to change, depending on combined effects of natural weakening vs. artificial strengthening. Monitoring will allow to quantitatively verify the new relationships between rainfall, groundwater and slope stability. References [1] Iovine G., Iaquinta P. & Terranova O. (2009). In Anderssen, Braddock & Newham (Eds.), Proc. 18th World IMACS Congr. and MODSIM09 Int. Congr. on Modelling and Simulation, pp. 2686-2693. [2] Iovine G., Lollino P., Gariano S.L. & Terranova O.G. (2010). NHESS, 10, 2341-2354. [3] Capparelli G., Iaquinta P., Iovine G., Terranova O.G. & Versace P. (2012). Natural Hazards, 61(1), pp.247-256. [4] Terranova O.G., Iaquinta P., Gariano S.L., Greco R. & Iovine G. (2013) In: Landslide Science and Practice, Margottini, Canuti, Sassa (Eds.), Vol. 3, pp.73-79. [5] Terranova O.G., Gariano S.L., Iaquinta P. & Iovine G.G.R. (2015). Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 1955-1978.

  5. Reorienting health services in the Northern Territory of Australia: a conceptual model for building health promotion capacity in the workforce.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Judd, Jenni; Keleher, Helen

    2013-06-01

    Reorienting work practices to include health promotion and prevention is complex and requires specific strategies and interventions. This paper presents original research that used 'real-world' practice to demonstrate that knowledge gathered from practice is relevant for the development of practice-based evidence. The paper shows how practitioners can inform and influence improvements in health promotion practice. Practitioner-informed evidence necessarily incorporates qualitative research to capture the richness of their reflective experiences. Using a participatory action research (PAR) approach, the research question asked 'what are the core dimensions of building health promotion capacity in a primary health care workforce in a real-world setting?' PAR is a method in which the researcher operates in full collaboration with members of the organisation being studied for the purposes of achieving some kind of change, in this case to increase the amount of health promotion and prevention practice within this community health setting. The PAR process involved six reflection and action cycles over two years. Data collection processes included: survey; in-depth interviews; a training intervention; observations of practice; workplace diaries; and two nominal groups. The listen/reflect/act process enabled lessons from practice to inform future capacity-building processes. This research strengthened and supported the development of health promotion to inform 'better health' practices through respectful change processes based on research, practitioner-informed evidence, and capacity-building strategies. A conceptual model for building health promotion capacity in the primary health care workforce was informed by the PAR processes and recognised the importance of the determinants approach. Practitioner-informed evidence is the missing link in the evidence debate and provides the links between evidence and its translation to practice. New models of health promotion service

  6. Application of the Perceptual Factors, Enabling and Reinforcing Model on Pap Smaear Screening in Iranian Northern Woman

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    Abolhassan Naghibi

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Background and Purpose: Cervical cancer is the most prevalent cancer among women in the world. Cervical cancer is no symptoms and can be treated if diagnosed in the first stage of the disease. The aim of this study was to survey the affecting factors of the Pap smears test on perceptual factors, enabling and reinforcing (PEN-3 model constructs in women. Materials and Methods: This study was a descriptive cross-sectional study. The sample size was 416 married women with random sampling. The questionnaire had 50 questions based on PEN-3 model structures. Data were analyzed by descriptive statistics and logistic regression method in software SPSS 20. Results: The mean age of women was 32.70 ± 21.00 years. The knowledge of risk factors and screening methods for cervical cancer was 37.2. About 40% of women had a history of Pap smears. The most important of perception factors were effective, family history of the disease, encourage people to Pap smear, and fear of detecting of cervical cancer. The most important enabling factors were the presence of expert health personnel to provide training and Pap smear test (50.3%, lack of time and too busy to do Pap smear test (23.2%. The reinforcing factors were the media advice (41.3%, doctor’s advice (32.5% and neglect and forgetfulness (36.2%. Conclusion: This study has shown the Pap smear screening behavior affected by personal factors, family, cultural and economic. Application of PEN-3 can effective in planning and designing intervention programs for cervical cancer screening.

  7. Empirical and model-based estimates of spatial and temporal variations in net primary productivity in semi-arid grasslands of Northern China.

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    Shengwei Zhang

    Full Text Available Spatiotemporal variations in net primary productivity (NPP reflect the dynamics of water and carbon in the biosphere, and are often closely related to temperature and precipitation. We used the ecosystem model known as the Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach (CASA to estimate NPP of semiarid grassland in northern China counties between 2001 and 2013. Model estimates were strongly linearly correlated with observed values from different counties (slope = 0.76 (p < 0.001, intercept = 34.7 (p < 0.01, R2 = 0.67, RMSE = 35 g C·m-2·year-1, bias = -0.11 g C·m-2·year-1. We also quantified inter-annual changes in NPP over the 13-year study period. NPP varied between 141 and 313 g C·m-2·year-1, with a mean of 240 g C·m-2·year-1. NPP increased from west to east each year, and mean precipitation in each county was significantly positively correlated with NPP-annually, and in summer and autumn. Mean precipitation was positively related to NPP in spring, but not significantly so. Annual and summer temperatures were mostly negatively correlated with NPP, but temperature was positively correlated with spring and autumn NPP. Spatial correlation and partial correlation analyses at the pixel scale confirmed precipitation is a major driver of NPP. Temperature was negatively correlated with NPP in 99% of the regions at the annual scale, but after removing the effect of precipitation, temperature was positively correlated with the NPP in 77% of the regions. Our data show that temperature effects on production depend heavily on recent precipitation. Results reported here have significant and far-reaching implications for natural resource management, given the enormous size of these grasslands and the numbers of people dependent on them.

  8. In search for evidence: combining ad hoc survey, monitoring, and modeling to estimate the potential and actual impact of ground level ozone on forests in Trentino (Northern Italy).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gottardini, Elena; Cristofolini, Fabiana; Cristofori, Antonella; Ferretti, Marco

    2017-09-27

    A 5-year project was carried out over the period 2007-2011 to estimate the potential and actual ozone effect on forests in Trentino, Northern Italy (6207 km 2 ) (Ozone EFFORT). The objective was to provide explicit answers to three main questions: (i) is there a potential risk placed by ozone to vegetation? (ii) are there specific ozone symptoms on vegetation, and are they related to ozone levels? (iii) are there ozone-related effects on forest health and growth? Different methods and techniques were adopted as follows: monitoring ozone levels, ad hoc field survey for symptoms on vegetation and chlorophyll-related measurements, modeling to upscale ozone measurements, ozone flux estimation, statistical analysis, and modeling to detect whether a significant effect attributable to ozone exists. Ozone effects were assessed on an ad hoc-introduced bioindicator, on spontaneous woody species, and on forest trees. As for question (i), the different ozone-risk critical levels for both exposure and stomatal flux were largely exceeded in Trentino, evidencing a potentially critical situation for vegetation. As for question (ii), specific ozone foliar symptoms related to ozone exposure levels were observed on the introduced supersensitive Nicotiana tabacum L. cv Bel-W3 and on the spontaneous, ozone-sensitive Viburnum lantana L., but not on other 33 species surveyed in the field studies. Regarding question (iii), statistical analyses on forest health (in terms of defoliation) and growth (in terms of basal area increment) measured at 15 forest monitoring plots and tree rings (at one site) revealed no significant relationship with ozone exposure and flux. Instead, a set of factors related to biotic and abiotic causes, foliar nutrients, age, and site were identified as the main drivers of forest health and growth. In conclusion, while ozone levels and fluxes in the investigated region were much higher than current critical levels, evidence of impact on vegetation-and on forest

  9. ORCHIDEE-PEAT (revision 4596, a model for northern peatland CO2, water, and energy fluxes on daily to annual scales

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Qiu

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Peatlands store substantial amounts of carbon and are vulnerable to climate change. We present a modified version of the Organising Carbon and Hydrology In Dynamic Ecosystems (ORCHIDEE land surface model for simulating the hydrology, surface energy, and CO2 fluxes of peatlands on daily to annual timescales. The model includes a separate soil tile in each 0.5° grid cell, defined from a global peatland map and identified with peat-specific soil hydraulic properties. Runoff from non-peat vegetation within a grid cell containing a fraction of peat is routed to this peat soil tile, which maintains shallow water tables. The water table position separates oxic from anoxic decomposition. The model was evaluated against eddy-covariance (EC observations from 30 northern peatland sites, with the maximum rate of carboxylation (Vcmax being optimized at each site. Regarding short-term day-to-day variations, the model performance was good for gross primary production (GPP (r2 =  0.76; Nash–Sutcliffe modeling efficiency, MEF  =  0.76 and ecosystem respiration (ER, r2 =  0.78, MEF  =  0.75, with lesser accuracy for latent heat fluxes (LE, r2 =  0.42, MEF  =  0.14 and and net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE, r2 =  0.38, MEF  =  0.26. Seasonal variations in GPP, ER, NEE, and energy fluxes on monthly scales showed moderate to high r2 values (0.57–0.86. For spatial across-site gradients of annual mean GPP, ER, NEE, and LE, r2 values of 0.93, 0.89, 0.27, and 0.71 were achieved, respectively. Water table (WT variation was not well predicted (r2 < 0.1, likely due to the uncertain water input to the peat from surrounding areas. However, the poor performance of WT simulation did not greatly affect predictions of ER and NEE. We found a significant relationship between optimized Vcmax and latitude (temperature, which better reflects the spatial gradients of annual NEE than using an average Vcmax value.

  10. ORCHIDEE-PEAT (revision 4596), a model for northern peatland CO2, water, and energy fluxes on daily to annual scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qiu, Chunjing; Zhu, Dan; Ciais, Philippe; Guenet, Bertrand; Krinner, Gerhard; Peng, Shushi; Aurela, Mika; Bernhofer, Christian; Brümmer, Christian; Bret-Harte, Syndonia; Chu, Housen; Chen, Jiquan; Desai, Ankur R.; Dušek, Jiří; Euskirchen, Eugénie S.; Fortuniak, Krzysztof; Flanagan, Lawrence B.; Friborg, Thomas; Grygoruk, Mateusz; Gogo, Sébastien; Grünwald, Thomas; Hansen, Birger U.; Holl, David; Humphreys, Elyn; Hurkuck, Miriam; Kiely, Gerard; Klatt, Janina; Kutzbach, Lars; Largeron, Chloé; Laggoun-Défarge, Fatima; Lund, Magnus; Lafleur, Peter M.; Li, Xuefei; Mammarella, Ivan; Merbold, Lutz; Nilsson, Mats B.; Olejnik, Janusz; Ottosson-Löfvenius, Mikaell; Oechel, Walter; Parmentier, Frans-Jan W.; Peichl, Matthias; Pirk, Norbert; Peltola, Olli; Pawlak, Włodzimierz; Rasse, Daniel; Rinne, Janne; Shaver, Gaius; Schmid, Hans Peter; Sottocornola, Matteo; Steinbrecher, Rainer; Sachs, Torsten; Urbaniak, Marek; Zona, Donatella; Ziemblinska, Klaudia

    2018-02-01

    Peatlands store substantial amounts of carbon and are vulnerable to climate change. We present a modified version of the Organising Carbon and Hydrology In Dynamic Ecosystems (ORCHIDEE) land surface model for simulating the hydrology, surface energy, and CO2 fluxes of peatlands on daily to annual timescales. The model includes a separate soil tile in each 0.5° grid cell, defined from a global peatland map and identified with peat-specific soil hydraulic properties. Runoff from non-peat vegetation within a grid cell containing a fraction of peat is routed to this peat soil tile, which maintains shallow water tables. The water table position separates oxic from anoxic decomposition. The model was evaluated against eddy-covariance (EC) observations from 30 northern peatland sites, with the maximum rate of carboxylation (Vcmax) being optimized at each site. Regarding short-term day-to-day variations, the model performance was good for gross primary production (GPP) (r2 = 0.76; Nash-Sutcliffe modeling efficiency, MEF = 0.76) and ecosystem respiration (ER, r2 = 0.78, MEF = 0.75), with lesser accuracy for latent heat fluxes (LE, r2 = 0.42, MEF = 0.14) and and net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE, r2 = 0.38, MEF = 0.26). Seasonal variations in GPP, ER, NEE, and energy fluxes on monthly scales showed moderate to high r2 values (0.57-0.86). For spatial across-site gradients of annual mean GPP, ER, NEE, and LE, r2 values of 0.93, 0.89, 0.27, and 0.71 were achieved, respectively. Water table (WT) variation was not well predicted (r2 < 0.1), likely due to the uncertain water input to the peat from surrounding areas. However, the poor performance of WT simulation did not greatly affect predictions of ER and NEE. We found a significant relationship between optimized Vcmax and latitude (temperature), which better reflects the spatial gradients of annual NEE than using an average Vcmax value.

  11. Daily Streamflow Predictions in an Ungauged Watershed in Northern California Using the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS): Calibration Challenges when nearby Gauged Watersheds are Hydrologically Dissimilar

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dhakal, A. S.; Adera, S.

    2017-12-01

    Accurate daily streamflow prediction in ungauged watersheds with sparse information is challenging. The ability of a hydrologic model calibrated using nearby gauged watersheds to predict streamflow accurately depends on hydrologic similarities between the gauged and ungauged watersheds. This study examines daily streamflow predictions using the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) for the largely ungauged San Antonio Creek watershed, a 96 km2 sub-watershed of the Alameda Creek watershed in Northern California. The process-based PRMS model is being used to improve the accuracy of recent San Antonio Creek streamflow predictions generated by two empirical methods. Although San Antonio Creek watershed is largely ungauged, daily streamflow data exists for hydrologic years (HY) 1913 - 1930. PRMS was calibrated for HY 1913 - 1930 using streamflow data, modern-day land use and PRISM precipitation distribution, and gauged precipitation and temperature data from a nearby watershed. The PRMS model was then used to generate daily streamflows for HY 1996-2013, during which the watershed was ungauged, and hydrologic responses were compared to two nearby gauged sub-watersheds of Alameda Creek. Finally, the PRMS-predicted daily flows between HY 1996-2013 were compared to the two empirically-predicted streamflow time series: (1) the reservoir mass balance method and (2) correlation of historical streamflows from 80 - 100 years ago between San Antonio Creek and a nearby sub-watershed located in Alameda Creek. While the mass balance approach using reservoir storage and transfers is helpful for estimating inflows to the reservoir, large discrepancies in daily streamflow estimation can arise. Similarly, correlation-based predicted daily flows which rely on a relationship from flows collected 80-100 years ago may not represent current watershed hydrologic conditions. This study aims to develop a method of streamflow prediction in the San Antonio Creek watershed by examining PRMS

  12. Geophysical modeling of the northern Appalachian Brompton-Cameron, Central Maine, and Avalon terranes under the New Jersey Coastal Plain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maguire, T.J.; Sheridan, R.E.; Volkert, R.A.

    2004-01-01

    Falls and Chester domes and Chain Lakes-Pelham dome-Bronson Hill structural trends, and the synformal Connecticut Valley-Gaspe structural trend can be traced southwest into the New Jersey Coastal Plain basement. A Mesozoic rift basin, the "Sandy Hook basin", and associated eastern boundary fault is identified, based upon gravity modeling, in the vicinity of Sandy Hook, New Jersey. The thickness of the rift-basin sedimentary rocks contained within the "Sandy Hook basin" is approximately 4.7 km, with the basin extending offshore to the east of the New Jersey coast. Gravity modeling indicates a deep rift basin and the magnetic data indicates a shallow magnetic basement caused by magnetic diabase sills and/or basalt flows contained within the rift-basin sedimentary rocks. The igneous sills and/or flows may be the eastward continuation of the Watchung and Palisades bodies. ?? 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Satellite-based model detection of recent climate-driven changes in northern high-latitude vegetation productivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Ke; Kimball, John S.; Hogg, E. H.; Zhao, Maosheng; Oechel, Walter C.; Cassano, John J.; Running, Steven W.

    2008-09-01

    We applied a satellite remote sensing based production efficiency model (PEM) using an integrated AVHRR and MODIS FPAR/LAI time series with a regionally corrected NCEP/NCAR reanalysis daily surface meteorology and NASA/GEWEX Surface Radiation Budget shortwave solar radiation inputs to assess annual terrestrial net primary productivity (NPP) for the pan-Arctic basin and Alaska from 1983 to 2005. Our results show that low temperature constraints on Boreal-Arctic NPP are decreasing by 0.43% per year (P vegetation moisture constraints of 0.49% per year (P = 0.04) are offsetting the potential benefits of longer growing seasons and contributing to recent disturbances in NPP. The PEM simulations of NPP seasonality, annual anomalies and trends are similar to stand inventory network measurements of boreal aspen stem growth (r = 0.56; P = 0.007) and atmospheric CO2 measurement based estimates of the timing of growing season onset (r = 0.78; P forest region after the late-1990s. However, seasonal low temperatures are still a dominant limitation on regional NPP. Despite recent drought events, mean annual NPP for the pan-Arctic region showed a positive growth trend of 0.34% per year (20.27 TgC/a; P = 0.002) from 1983 to 2005. Drought induced NPP decreases may become more frequent and widespread as regional ecosystems adjust to a warmer, drier atmosphere, though the occurrence and severity of drought events will depend on future patterns of plant-available moisture.

  14. Regional Equivalent Water Thickness Modeling from Remote Sensing across a Tree Cover/LAI Gradient in Mediterranean Forests of Northern Tunisia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hedia Chakroun

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available The performance of vegetation indexes derived from moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS sensors is explored for drought monitoring in the forests of Northern Tunisia; representing a transition zone between the Mediterranean Sea and the Sahara Desert. We investigated the suitability of biomass and moisture vegetation indexes for vegetation water content expressed by the equivalent water thickness (EWT in a Mediterranean forest ecosystem with contrasted water budgets and desiccation rates. We proposed a revised EWT at canopy level (EWTCAN based on weekly field measurements of fuel moisture in seven species during the 2010 dry period; considering the mixture of plant functional types for water use (trees; shrubs and herbaceous layers and a varying vegetation cover. MODIS vegetation indexes computed and smoothed over the dry season were highly correlated with the EWTCAN. The performances of moisture indexes (Normalized Difference Infrared Index (NDII6 and NDII7; and Global Moisture Vegetation Index (GVMI6 and GVMI7 were comparable; whereas; for biomass vegetation indexes; Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI; Modified Soil Adjusted Vegetation Index (MSAVI and Adjusted Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (ANDVI performed better than Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI and Soil Adjusted Vegetation Index (SAVI. We also identified the effect of Leaf Area Index (LAI on EWTCAN monitoring at the regional scale under the tree cover/LAI gradient of the region from relatively dense to open forest. Statistical analysis revealed a significant decreasing linear relationship; indicating that for LAI less than two; the greater the LAI; the less responsive are the vegetation indexes to changes in EWTCAN; whereas for higher LAI; its influence becomes less significant and was not considered in the inversion models based on vegetation indexes. The EWTCAN time-course from LAI-adapted inversion models; based on significantly-related vegetation

  15. Is the Kaiser Permanente model superior in terms of clinical integration?: a comparative study of Kaiser Permanente, Northern California and the Danish healthcare system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strandberg-Larsen, Martin; Schiøtz, Michaela L; Silver, Jeremy D; Frølich, Anne; Andersen, John S; Graetz, Ilana; Reed, Mary; Bellows, Jim; Krasnik, Allan; Rundall, Thomas; Hsu, John

    2010-04-08

    Integration of medical care across clinicians and settings could enhance the quality of care for patients. To date, there is limited data on the levels of integration in practice. Our objective was to compare primary care clinicians' perceptions of clinical integration and three sub-aspects in two healthcare systems: Kaiser Permanente, Northern California (KPNC) and the Danish healthcare system (DHS). Further, we examined the associations between specific organizational factors and clinical integration within each system. Comparable questionnaires were sent to a random sample of primary care clinicians in KPNC (n = 1103) and general practitioners in DHS (n = 700). Data were analysed using multiple logistic regression models. More clinicians in KPNC perceived to be part of a clinical integrated environment than did general practitioners in the DHS (OR = 3.06, 95% CI: 2.28, 4.12). Further, more KPNC clinicians reported timeliness of information transfer (OR = 2.25, 95% CI: 1.62, 3.13), agreement on roles and responsibilities (OR = 1.79, 95% CI: 1.30, 2.47) and established coordination mechanisms in place to ensure effective handoffs (OR = 6.80, 95% CI: 4.60, 10.06). None of the considered organizational factors in the sub-country analysis explained a substantial proportion of the variation in clinical integration. More primary care clinicians in KPNC reported clinical integration than did general practitioners in the DHS. Focused measures of clinical integration are needed to develop the field of clinical integration and to create the scientific foundation to guide managers searching for evidence based approaches.

  16. Towards understanding of the spatio-temporal composition of Terrestrial Water Storage variations in Northern Latitudes using a model-data fusion approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trautmann, Tina; Koirala, Sujan; Carvalhais, Nuno; Niemann, Christoph; Fink, Manfred; Jung, Martin

    2017-04-01

    Understanding variations in the terrestrial water storage (TWS) and its components is essential to gain insights into the dynamics of the hydrological cycle, and to assess temporal and spatial variations of water availability under global changes. We investigated spatio-temporal patterns of TWS variations and their composition in the humid regions of northern mid-to-high latitudes during 2001-2014 by using a simple hydrological model with few effective parameters. Compared to traditional modelling studies, our simple model was informed and constrained by multiple state-of-the-art earth observation products including TWS from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites (Wiese 2015), Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) from GlobSnow project (Loujous et al. 2014), evapotranspiration fluxes from eddy covariance measurements (Tramontana et al. 2016), and gridded runoff estimates for Europe (Gudmundsson & Seneviratne 2016). Thorough evaluation of model demonstrates that the model reproduces the observed patterns of hydrological fluxes and states well. The validated model results are then used to assess the contributions of snow pack, soil moisture and groundwater on the integrated TWS across spatial (local grid scale, spatially integrated) and temporal (seasonal, inter-annual) scales. Interestingly, our results show that TWS variations on different scales are dominated by different components. On both, seasonal and inter-annual time scales, the spatially integrated TWS signal mainly originates from dynamics of snow pack. On the local grid scale, mean seasonal TWS variations are driven by snow dynamics as well, whereas inter-annual variations are found to originate from soil moisture availability. Thus, we show that the determinants of TWS variations are scale-dependent, while coincidently underline the potential of model-data fusion techniques to gain insights into the complex hydrological system. References: Gudmundsson, L. and S. I. Seneviratne (2016

  17. Describing and analysing primary health care system support for chronic illness care in Indigenous communities in Australia's Northern Territory – use of the Chronic Care Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stewart Allison

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Indigenous Australians experience disproportionately high prevalence of, and morbidity and mortality from chronic illness such as diabetes, renal disease and cardiovascular disease. Improving the understanding of how Indigenous primary care systems are organised to deliver chronic illness care will inform efforts to improve the quality of care for Indigenous people. Methods This cross-sectional study was conducted in 12 Indigenous communities in Australia's Northern Territory. Using the Chronic Care Model as a framework, we carried out a mail-out survey to collect information on material, financial and human resources relating to chronic illness care in participating health centres. Follow up face-to-face interviews with health centre staff were conducted to identify successes and difficulties in the systems in relation to providing chronic illness care to community members. Results Participating health centres had distinct areas of strength and weakness in each component of systems: 1 organisational influence – strengthened by inclusion of chronic illness goals in business plans, appointment of designated chronic disease coordinators and introduction of external clinical audits, but weakened by lack of training in disease prevention and health promotion and limited access to Medicare funding; 2 community linkages – facilitated by working together with community organisations (e.g. local stores and running community-based programs (e.g. "health week", but detracted by a shortage of staff especially of Aboriginal health workers working in the community; 3 self management – promoted through patient education and goal setting with clients, but impeded by limited focus on family and community-based activities due to understaffing; 4 decision support – facilitated by distribution of clinical guidelines and their integration with daily care, but limited by inadequate access to and support from specialists; 5 delivery system

  18. Describing and analysing primary health care system support for chronic illness care in Indigenous communities in Australia's Northern Territory – use of the Chronic Care Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Si, Damin; Bailie, Ross; Cunningham, Joan; Robinson, Gary; Dowden, Michelle; Stewart, Allison; Connors, Christine; Weeramanthri, Tarun

    2008-01-01

    Background Indigenous Australians experience disproportionately high prevalence of, and morbidity and mortality from chronic illness such as diabetes, renal disease and cardiovascular disease. Improving the understanding of how Indigenous primary care systems are organised to deliver chronic illness care will inform efforts to improve the quality of care for Indigenous people. Methods This cross-sectional study was conducted in 12 Indigenous communities in Australia's Northern Territory. Using the Chronic Care Model as a framework, we carried out a mail-out survey to collect information on material, financial and human resources relating to chronic illness care in participating health centres. Follow up face-to-face interviews with health centre staff were conducted to identify successes and difficulties in the systems in relation to providing chronic illness care to community members. Results Participating health centres had distinct areas of strength and weakness in each component of systems: 1) organisational influence – strengthened by inclusion of chronic illness goals in business plans, appointment of designated chronic disease coordinators and introduction of external clinical audits, but weakened by lack of training in disease prevention and health promotion and limited access to Medicare funding; 2) community linkages – facilitated by working together with community organisations (e.g. local stores) and running community-based programs (e.g. "health week"), but detracted by a shortage of staff especially of Aboriginal health workers working in the community; 3) self management – promoted through patient education and goal setting with clients, but impeded by limited focus on family and community-based activities due to understaffing; 4) decision support – facilitated by distribution of clinical guidelines and their integration with daily care, but limited by inadequate access to and support from specialists; 5) delivery system design

  19. Describing and analysing primary health care system support for chronic illness care in Indigenous communities in Australia's Northern Territory - use of the Chronic Care Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Si, Damin; Bailie, Ross; Cunningham, Joan; Robinson, Gary; Dowden, Michelle; Stewart, Allison; Connors, Christine; Weeramanthri, Tarun

    2008-05-28

    Indigenous Australians experience disproportionately high prevalence of, and morbidity and mortality from chronic illness such as diabetes, renal disease and cardiovascular disease. Improving the understanding of how Indigenous primary care systems are organised to deliver chronic illness care will inform efforts to improve the quality of care for Indigenous people. This cross-sectional study was conducted in 12 Indigenous communities in Australia's Northern Territory. Using the Chronic Care Model as a framework, we carried out a mail-out survey to collect information on material, financial and human resources relating to chronic illness care in participating health centres. Follow up face-to-face interviews with health centre staff were conducted to identify successes and difficulties in the systems in relation to providing chronic illness care to community members. Participating health centres had distinct areas of strength and weakness in each component of systems: 1) organisational influence - strengthened by inclusion of chronic illness goals in business plans, appointment of designated chronic disease coordinators and introduction of external clinical audits, but weakened by lack of training in disease prevention and health promotion and limited access to Medicare funding; 2) community linkages - facilitated by working together with community organisations (e.g. local stores) and running community-based programs (e.g. "health week"), but detracted by a shortage of staff especially of Aboriginal health workers working in the community; 3) self management - promoted through patient education and goal setting with clients, but impeded by limited focus on family and community-based activities due to understaffing; 4) decision support - facilitated by distribution of clinical guidelines and their integration with daily care, but limited by inadequate access to and support from specialists; 5) delivery system design - strengthened by provision of transport for

  20. Tree survey and allometric models for tiger bush in northern Senegal and comparison with tree parameters derived from high resolution satellite data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Mads Olander; Goettsche, Frank-M.; Diop, Doudou

    2011-01-01

    A tree survey and an analysis of high resolution satellite data were performed to characterise the woody vegetation within a 10 x 10 km(2) area around a site located close to the town of Dahra in the semiarid northern part of Senegal. The surveyed parameters were tree species, height, tree crown...

  1. Regional groundwater-flow model of the Redwall-Muav, Coconino, and alluvial basin aquifer systems of northern and central Arizona

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pool, D.R.; Blasch, Kyle W.; Callegary, James B.; Leake, Stanley A.; Graser, Leslie F.

    2011-01-01

    A numerical flow model (MODFLOW) of the groundwater flow system in the primary aquifers in northern Arizona was developed to simulate interactions between the aquifers, perennial streams, and springs for predevelopment and transient conditions during 1910 through 2005. Simulated aquifers include the Redwall-Muav, Coconino, and basin-fill aquifers. Perennial stream reaches and springs that derive base flow from the aquifers were simulated, including the Colorado River, Little Colorado River, Salt River, Verde River, and perennial reaches of tributary streams. Simulated major springs include Blue Spring, Del Rio Springs, Havasu Springs, Verde River headwater springs, several springs that discharge adjacent to major Verde River tributaries, and many springs that discharge to the Colorado River. Estimates of aquifer hydraulic properties and groundwater budgets were developed from published reports and groundwater-flow models. Spatial extents of aquifers and confining units were developed from geologic data, geophysical models, a groundwater-flow model for the Prescott Active Management Area, drill logs, geologic logs, and geophysical logs. Spatial and temporal distributions of natural recharge were developed by using a water-balance model that estimates recharge from direct infiltration. Additional natural recharge from ephemeral channel infiltration was simulated in alluvial basins. Recharge at wastewater treatment facilities and incidental recharge at agricultural fields and golf courses were also simulated. Estimates of predevelopment rates of groundwater discharge to streams, springs, and evapotranspiration by phreatophytes were derived from previous reports and on the basis of streamflow records at gages. Annual estimates of groundwater withdrawals for agriculture, municipal, industrial, and domestic uses were developed from several sources, including reported withdrawals for nonexempt wells, estimated crop requirements for agricultural wells, and estimated per

  2. Northern star js plaskett

    CERN Document Server

    Broughton, R Peter

    2018-01-01

    Northern Star explores Plaskett's unorthodox and fascinating life from his rural roots near Woodstock through his days as a technician at the University of Toronto to his initiation in astronomy at the Dominion Observatory in Ottawa.

  3. Northern Lights Chase Tours : Experiences from Northern Norway

    OpenAIRE

    Bertella, Giovanna

    2013-01-01

    This study is focused on the development of northern lights chase tourism, a particular type of northern lights tourism consisting in guided tours that have the goal to find good views of the northern lights. The theoretical approach is based on the understanding of the northern lights experience as a visual experience, and on the recognition of the tourism practitioners as the driving force to new product development. The empirical case concerns the recent development of northern lights chas...

  4. Northern Dimension: Participant Strategies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Busygina Irina

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available This article is devoted to the “Northern Dimension” initiative of the EU which also includes North-West Russia, Norway and Iceland. It is noted that the “Northern Dimension” in the theoretical perspective can be considered as part of strategic multi-level interactions between member-states of the EU and Russia. On this basis, the authors analyze implications and effects of the strategic interdependence of all the EU-Russia relation levels.

  5. Northern Ireland: an anomaly.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simpson, A

    1989-01-01

    The British Abortion Act of 1967, which makes abortion legal up to 28 weeks, does not extend to Northern Ireland, where abortion is still regulated by the 1861 Offences Against the Person Act, which makes abortion a felony, and the 1929 Infant Life Preservation Act, which prohibits abortion after the 28th week of pregnancy. The Bourne Judgment of 1928, in which a court held in favor of one Dr. Alex Bourne, who performed an early abortion, may be cited as precedent, but not as law. A woman in Northern Ireland may have an abortion only on the National Health Service and only if pregnancy is life-threatening, if she is mentally retarded, or if the child is likely to be abnormal. How many abortions are actually performed in Northern Ireland each year is not known. Essentially, women with unwanted pregnancies have only 3 options: to have the baby, to risk a back street abortion, and to go to England. Since 1967, 20,000 Northern Irish women have had abortions in England, but it is a privilege reserved for the wealthy because the woman must bear the expenses of traveling to England, establishing residency there, and paying hospital fees. All of this takes time and results in many women having late abortions. The women also must bear the stigma of having done something of which neither church in Northern Ireland approves. Northern Irish women, quite simply, do not have the same rights as women in England, Scotland, and Wales.

  6. New insights into the Middle Pleistocene paleoecology and paleoenvironment of the Northern Iberian Peninsula (Punta Lucero Quarry site, Biscay): A combined approach using mammalian stable isotope analysis and trophic resource availability modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Domingo, Laura; Rodríguez-Gómez, Guillermo; Libano, Iñaki; Gómez-Olivencia, Asier

    2017-08-01

    The northern coastal area of the Iberian Peninsula shows an excellent archaeo-paleontological record with a unique representation of Pleistocene mammalian fossils. While the Late Pleistocene is better recorded, the Middle Pleistocene record remains more fragmentary. The Punta Lucero site (Biscay) has yielded the most important fossil assemblage of the middle Middle Pleistocene for the northern Iberian Peninsula in both, number of identified specimens and taxonomic diversity. Punta Lucero constitutes a unique opportunity to evaluate Middle Pleistocene mammalian resource and habitat use, and trophic dynamics employing a combined approach: biogeochemical analysis and mathematical modeling. Stable isotope analysis points to resource partitioning between Punta Lucero cervids and bovids. Stable isotope analysis and trophic modeling evidence resource overlap and interspecific competition among predators, especially between the scimitar-toothed cat Homotherium latidens and the European jaguar Panthera gombaszoegensis. The trophic resource availability modeling assumes that Canis mosbachensis consumed a 20% of preys of more than 10 kg, mainly as carrion. Thus, while there would be a taxonomic overlap with those preys consumed by the large felids, the different strategy would have facilitated the coexistence of these canids with larger carnivores. Trophic modeling indicates a high competition among the predator guild. The potential presence of hominins in the area would have reached to an unsustainable situation. However, the potential presence of other prey species, such as Equus sp., would have made the ecosystem more sustainable. The methodology followed in this study highlights the potential of multidisciplinary approaches in the assessment of Pleistocene faunal dynamics.

  7. Potential soil organic carbon stocks in semi arid areas under climate change scenarios: an application of CarboSOIL model in northern Egypt

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muñoz-Rojas, Miriam; Abd-Elmabod, Sameh K.; Jordán, Antonio; Zavala, Lorena M.; Anaya-Romero, Maria; De la Rosa, Diego

    2014-05-01

    1. INTRODUCTION Climate change is predicted to have a large impact on semi arid areas which are often degraded and vulnerable to environmental changes (Muñoz-Rojas et al., 2012a; 2012b; 2013). However, these areas might play a key role in mitigation of climate change effects through sequestration of carbon in soils (United Nations, 2011). At the same time, increasing organic carbon in these environments could be beneficial for soil erosion control, soil fertility and, ultimately, food production (Lal, 2004). Several approaches have been carried out to evaluate climate change impacts on soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks, but soil carbon models are amongst the most effective tools to assess C stocks, dynamics and distribution and to predict trends under climate change scenarios (Jones et al., 2005 ). CarboSOIL is an empirical model based on regression techniques and developed to predict SOC contents at standard soil depths of 0 to 25, 25 to 50 and 50-75 cm (Muñoz-Rojas et al., 2013). CarboSOIL model has been designed as a GIS-integrated tool and is a new component of the agroecological decision support system for land evaluation MicroLEIS DSS (De la Rosa et al., 2004). 2. GENERAL METHODS In this research, CarboSOIL was applied in El-Fayoum depression, a semi arid region located in northern Egypt with a large potential for agriculture (Abd-Elmabod et al, 2012). The model was applied in a total of six soil-units classified according the USDA Soil Taxonomy system within the orders Entisols and Aridisols under different climate climate change scenarios. Global climate models based on the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (Agrawala at al., 2004) and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007) were applied to predict short-, medium- and long-term trends (2030, 2050 and 2100) of SOC dynamics and sequestration at different soil depths (0-25, 25-50 and 50-75) and land use types (irrigated areas, olive groves, wheat, cotton and other annual

  8. Petrology and geochemistry of the orbicular granitoid of Caldera, northern Chile. Models and hypotheses on the formation of radial orbicular textures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Díaz-Alvarado, Juan; Rodríguez, Natalia; Rodríguez, Carmen; Fernández, Carlos; Constanzo, Ítalo

    2017-07-01

    The orbicular granitoid of Caldera, located at the northern part of the Chilean Coastal Range, is a spectacular example of radial textures in orbicular structures. The orbicular body crops out as a 375 m2 tabular to lensoidal intrusive sheet emplaced in the Lower Jurassic Relincho pluton. The orbicular structures are 3-7 cm in diameter ellipsoids hosted in a porphyritic matrix. The orbicules are comprised by a Qtz-dioritic core (3-5 cm in diameter) composed by Pl + Hbl + Qtz + Bt ± Kfs with equiaxial textures and a gabbroic shell (2-3 cm in diameter) characterized by feathery and radiate textures with a plagioclase + hornblende paragenesis. The radial shell crystals are rooted and orthogonally disposed in the irregular contact with the core. The radial shell, called here inner shell, is in contact with the granodioritic equiaxial interorbicular matrix through a 2-3 mm wide poikilitic band around the orbicule (outer shell). The outer shell and the matrix surrounding the orbicules are characterized by the presence of large hornblende and biotite oikocrystals that include fine-grained rounded plagioclase and magnetite. The oikocrystals of both the outer shell and the matrix have a circumferential arrangement around the orbicule, i.e. orthogonal to the radial inner shell. The coarse-grained granodioritic interorbicular matrix present pegmatitic domains with large acicular hornblende and K-feldspar megacrysts. This work presents a review of the textural characteristics of the orbicules and a complete new mineral and whole-rock geochemical study of the different parts of the orbicular granitoid, together with thermobarometric and crystallographic data, and theoretical modeling of the crystallization and element partitioning processes. We propose a model for the formation of the orbicular radial textures consisting of several processes that are suggested to occur fast and consecutively: superheating, volatile exsolution, undercooling, geochemical fractionation and

  9. The Maritime Cultural Landscape of Northern Patagonia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lira, Nicolás

    2017-12-01

    This article is a contribution to the study of the indigenous navigation and its boats in the region of northern Patagonia. This article also aims to contribute to the understanding of indigenous navigation practices and technologies and their origins from prehistoric times to the mid-twentieth century. It presents and discusses the concept of Westerdahl's Maritime Cultural Landscape in relation to other landscape concepts. This model is applied to northern Patagonia in order to discuss if it is possible to speak of a true maritime culture in the region. For this purpose, archaeological, historical and ethnographic data are presented in an integrative and innovative methodology for the discipline. Finally, the Maritime Cultural Landscape model will allow the integration of aquatic and terrestrial landscapes as routes traveled by native inhabitants of northern Patagonia and southern Chile, and propose an important and diversified maritime, river and lake tradition.

  10. Northern Plains 'Crater'

    Science.gov (United States)

    2004-01-01

    10 December 2004 The lower left (southwest) corner of this Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) Mars Orbiter Camera (MOC) image shows the location of a somewhat filled and buried meteor impact crater on the northern plains of Mars. The dark dots are boulders. A portion of a similar feature is seen in the upper right (northeast) corner of the image. This picture, showing landforms (including the odd mound north/northeast of the crater) that are typical of the martian northern lowland plains, was obtained as part of the MGS MOC effort to support the search for a landing site for the Phoenix Mars Scout lander. Phoenix will launch in 2007 and land on the northern plains in 2008. This image is located near 68.0oN, 227.4oW, and covers an area approximately 3 km (1.9 mi) wide. The scene is illuminated by sunlight from the lower left.

  11. Northern Plains Buried Craters

    Science.gov (United States)

    2004-01-01

    22 December 2003This Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) Mars Orbiter Camera (MOC) image shows three circular features on the martian northern plains near 70.7oN, 311.7oW. These circular features are the locations of meteor impact craters that have been buried beneath the plains. Much of the northern plains shares this story, in which thousands of old craters have been filled or partially filled and then thinly buried beneath textured plains. The picture covers an area 3 km (1.9 mi) wide. Sunlight illuminates the scene from the lower left.

  12. The Lemmatisation of adverbs in northern Sotho | Prinsloo | Lexikos

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The aim of this article is to offer solutions to the lemmatisation problems regarding adverbs in Northern Sotho and to propose guiding entries for paper and electronic dictionaries which could serve as models for future dictionaries. The treatment of adverbs in Northern Sotho dictionaries will also be criti-cally evaluated, ...

  13. Northern blotting analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Josefsen, Knud; Nielsen, Henrik

    2011-01-01

    Northern blotting analysis is a classical method for analysis of the size and steady-state level of a specific RNA in a complex sample. In short, the RNA is size-fractionated by gel electrophoresis and transferred by blotting onto a membrane to which the RNA is covalently bound. Then, the membrane...... the gap to the more laborious nuclease protection experiments....

  14. insurgencies in northern Uganda

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    insurgency, the RUF would attack villages, hacking civilians to death, while those who would be abducted would have their arms and limbs hacked off. The LRA uses similar tactics on civilians (Apuuli 2004). The question that arises then is: In view of the LRA's continued atrocities against the people of northern Uganda, ...

  15. Northern blotting analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Josefsen, Knud; Nielsen, Henrik

    2011-01-01

    is analysed by hybridization to one or more specific probes that are labelled for subsequent detection. Northern blotting is relatively simple to perform, inexpensive, and not plagued by artefacts. Recent developments of hybridization membranes and buffers have resulted in increased sensitivity closing...

  16. NORTHERN REGION OF GHANA

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2004-12-02

    Dec 2, 2004 ... It is recommended that deforestation and bush burning that will reduce vegetation cover and enhance evaporation from the soils should be checked through education of the citizens. Northern Region has vast areas of arable land which prospective farmers take advantage off. Such people cultivate the land ...

  17. Northern blotting analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Josefsen, Knud; Nielsen, Henrik

    2011-01-01

    Northern blotting analysis is a classical method for analysis of the size and steady-state level of a specific RNA in a complex sample. In short, the RNA is size-fractionated by gel electrophoresis and transferred by blotting onto a membrane to which the RNA is covalently bound. Then, the membran...

  18. The visual arts in Northern Ireland hospitals.

    OpenAIRE

    Cromie, H.

    1995-01-01

    Since 1989 there has been a burgeoning of the visual arts in Northern Ireland hospitals. This paper compares the three organisational models for hospital arts currently operating within the Province and in an overview discusses ways to coordinate working practice for future development of the visual arts in local hospitals. Images Fig 1 Fig 2 Fig 3

  19. The visual arts in Northern Ireland hospitals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cromie, H

    1995-10-01

    Since 1989 there has been a burgeoning of the visual arts in Northern Ireland hospitals. This paper compares the three organisational models for hospital arts currently operating within the Province and in an overview discusses ways to coordinate working practice for future development of the visual arts in local hospitals.

  20. The visual arts in Northern Ireland hospitals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cromie, H.

    1995-01-01

    Since 1989 there has been a burgeoning of the visual arts in Northern Ireland hospitals. This paper compares the three organisational models for hospital arts currently operating within the Province and in an overview discusses ways to coordinate working practice for future development of the visual arts in local hospitals. Images Fig 1 Fig 2 Fig 3 PMID:8533183

  1. Climatic variability, plant phenology, and northern ungulates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Post, E.; Stenseth, N.C. [Univ. of Oslo (Norway)

    1999-06-01

    Models of climate change predict that global temperatures and precipitation will increase within the next century, with the most pronounced changes occurring in northern latitudes and during winter. A large-scale atmospheric phenomenon, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), is a strong determinant of both interannual variation and decadal trends in temperatures and precipitation during winter in northern latitudes, and its recent persistence in one extreme phase may be a substantial component of increases in global temperatures. Hence, the authors investigated the influences of large-scale climatic variability on plant phenology and ungulate population ecology by incorporating the NAO in statistical analyses of previously published data on: (1) the timing of flowering by plants in Norway, and (2) phenotypic and demographic variation in populations of northern ungulates. The authors analyzed 137 time series on plant phenology for 13 species of plants in Norway spanning up to 50 yr and 39 time series on phenotypic and demographic traits of 7 species of northern ungulates from 16 populations in North America and northern Europe spanning up to 30 yr.

  2. A geochemical and geophysical approach to derive a conceptual circulation model of CO2-rich mineral waters: A case study of Vilarelho da Raia, northern Portugal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marques, J. M.; Santos, Monteiro; Graça, R. C.; Castro, R.; Aires-Barros, L.; Mendes Victor, L. A.

    2001-11-01

    The Vilarelho da Raia-Chaves region, located in northern Portugal adjacent to the Spanish border, is characterized by both hot and cold CO2-rich mineral waters issuing from springs and drilled wells. The present paper updates the conceptual circulation model of the Vilarelho da Raia cold CO2-rich mineral waters. Vilarelho da Raia mineral waters, dominated by Na and HCO3 ions, have formed mainly by interaction with CO2 of deep-seated mantle origin. The δ18O, δ2H and 3H values indicate that these waters are the result of meteoric waters infiltrating into Larouco Mountain, NW of Vilarelho da Raia, circulating at shallow depths in granitic rocks and moving into Vilarelho da Raia area. The conceptual geochemical and geophysical circulation model indicates that the hot and cold CO2-rich mineral waters of Chaves (76 °C) and Vilarelho da Raia (17 °C) should be considered manifestations of similar but not the same geohydrological systems. Résumé. La région de Vilarelho da Raia - Chaves, située au Portugal près de la frontière Espagnole, est caractérisée par des eaux carbogazeuses, chaudes et froides, émergeant à des sources et dans des puits. Ce travail constitue une mise au point du modèle conceptuel de circulation des eaux minérales carbogazeuses froides de Vilarelho da Raia. Les eaux minérales de Vilarelho da Raia, dans lesquelles les ions Na and HCO3 sont dominants, résultent principalement d'interactions avec du CO2 d'origine mantellique. Les δ18O, les δ2H, et les teneurs en 3H indiquent que ces eaux proviennent de l'infiltration d'eaux météoriques dans le Mont Larouco au NW de Vilarelho da Raia, circulant à faible profondeur dans les granites en direction de la région de Vilarelho da Raia. Le modèle de circulation géochimique et géophysique conduit à penser que les eaux minérales carbogazeuses chaudes et froides de Chaves (76 °C) et de Vilarelho da Raia (17 °C) doivent être considérées comme des manifestations de systèmes hydrog

  3. Quantifying the role of land-use and land-cover changes in Northern Eurasia in global greenhouse gas emissions and biomass supply during the 21st century using an earth system modeling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhuang, Q.; Kicklighter, D. W.; Cai, Y.; Tchebakova, N. M.; Melillo, J. M.; Reilly, J. M.; Sokolov, A. P.; Sirin, A.; Maksyutov, S. S.; Shvidenko, A.

    2016-12-01

    The largest increase of surface air temperature and related climate extremes have occurred in Northern Eurasia in recent decades, and are projected to continue during the 21st century. The changing climate will affect biogeography, land cover, and carbon sink and source activities in the region, which in turn, will affect how global land use evolves in the future as humans attempt to mitigate and adapt to climate change. Regional land-use changes, however, also depend on pressures imposed by the global economy and environmental changes. Feedbacks from future land-use change will further modify regional and global biogeochemistry and climate. This study uses a suite of linked biogeography, biogeochemical, economic, and climate models to explore how climate-induced vegetation shifts in Northern Eurasia will influence land-use change, carbon cycling and biomass supply across the globe during the 21st century. We find that, at the global scale, more land will be allocated towards food and biofuel crops (from current 22 to 37 million km2 at the end of the 21st century) due to land-use change associated with increasing population and economic development, and vegetation shifts in Northern Eurasia under a no-policy scenario. A global cumulative carbon sink of 52 Pg C occurs under the no-policy scenario where CO2 equivalent greenhouse gas concentrations reach 870 ppmv by the end of 21st century. However, under a policy scenario, which limits CO2 equivalent greenhouse gas concentrations to 480 ppmv by the end of the 21st century, a global cumulative carbon sink of 63 Pg C occurs. The global biomass supply will decrease by 36 and 14 Pg C under the no-policy and policy scenarios, respectively. In the presentation, we will also discuss our analysis on N2O and CH4 exchanges between the biosphere and the atmosphere in response to the changes of land cover and climate during this century.

  4. Northern pipelines : backgrounder

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2002-04-01

    Most analysts agree that demand for natural gas in North America will continue to grow. Favourable market conditions created by rising demand and declining production have sparked renewed interest in northern natural gas development. The 2002 Annual Energy Outlook forecasted U.S. consumption to increase at an annual average rate of 2 per cent from 22.8 trillion cubic feet to 33.8 TCF by 2020, mostly due to rapid growth in demand for electric power generation. Natural gas prices are also expected to increase at an annual average rate of 1.6 per cent, reaching $3.26 per thousand cubic feet in 2020. There are currently 3 proposals for pipelines to move northern gas to US markets. They include a stand-alone Mackenzie Delta Project, the Alaska Highway Pipeline Project, and an offshore route that would combine Alaskan and Canadian gas in a pipeline across the floor of the Beaufort Sea. Current market conditions and demand suggest that the projects are not mutually exclusive, but complimentary. The factors that differentiate northern pipeline proposals are reserves, preparedness for market, costs, engineering, and environmental differences. Canada has affirmed its role to provide the regulatory and fiscal certainty needed by industry to make investment decisions. The Government of the Yukon does not believe that the Alaska Highway Project will shut in Mackenzie Delta gas, but will instead pave the way for development of a new northern natural gas industry. The Alaska Highway Pipeline Project will bring significant benefits for the Yukon, the Northwest Territories and the rest of Canada. Unresolved land claims are one of the challenges that has to be addressed for both Yukon and the Northwest Territories, as the proposed Alaska Highway Pipeline will travel through traditional territories of several Yukon first Nations. 1 tab., 4 figs

  5. TSUNAMI HAZARD IN NORTHERN VENEZUELA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Theilen-Willige

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Based on LANDSAT ETM and Digital Elevation Model (DEM data derived by the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM, 2000 of the coastal areas of Northern Venezuela were investigated in order to detect traces of earlier tsunami events. Digital image processing methods used to enhance LANDSAT ETM imageries and to produce morphometric maps (such as hillshade, slope, minimum and maximum curvature maps based on the SRTM DEM data contribute to the detection of morphologic traces that might be related to catastrophic tsunami events. These maps combined with various geodata such as seismotectonic data in a GIS environment allow the delineation of coastal regions with potential tsunami risk. The LANDSAT ETM imageries merged with digitally processed and enhanced SRTM data clearly indicate areas that might be prone by flooding in case of catastrophic tsunami events.

  6. Increasing Northern Hemisphere water deficit

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCabe, Gregory J.; Wolock, David M.

    2015-01-01

    A monthly water-balance model is used with CRUTS3.1 gridded monthly precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (PET) data to examine changes in global water deficit (PET minus actual evapotranspiration) for the Northern Hemisphere (NH) for the years 1905 through 2009. Results show that NH deficit increased dramatically near the year 2000 during both the cool (October through March) and warm (April through September) seasons. The increase in water deficit near 2000 coincides with a substantial increase in NH temperature and PET. The most pronounced increases in deficit occurred for the latitudinal band from 0 to 40°N. These results indicate that global warming has increased the water deficit in the NH and that the increase since 2000 is unprecedented for the 1905 through 2009 period. Additionally, coincident with the increase in deficit near 2000, mean NH runoff also increased due to increases in P. We explain the apparent contradiction of concurrent increases in deficit and increases in runoff.

  7. A revised subduction inception model to explain the Late Cretaceous, doubly vergent orogen in the pre-collisional western Tethys: evidences from the Northern Apennine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meneghini, Francesca; Marroni, Michele; Pandolfi, Luca

    2017-04-01

    Orogenic processes are widely demonstrated to be strongly controlled by inherited structures. The paleogeography of the converging margins, and the tectonic processes responsible for their configuration, will influence the location of subduction initiation, the distribution of deformation between upper and lower plate, the shape of the accretionary prism and of the subsequent orogeny, through controlling the development of single or doubly-vergent orogens, and, as a corollary, the modality of exhumation of metamorphosed units. The "alpine age" collisional belts of the Mediterranean area are characterized by tangled architectures derived from the overlapping of several deformation events related to a multiphase, long history that comprises not only the collision of continental margins, but that can be regarded as an heritage of both the rifting-related configuration of the continental margins, and the subduction-related structures. The Northern Apennines is a segment of these collisional belts that originated by the Late Cretaceous-Middle Eocene closure of the northern branch of the western Tethys, and the subsequent Late Eocene-Early Oligocene continental collision between the Europe and Adria plates. Due to a different configuration of the paired Adria and Europe continental margins, inherited from a rifting phase dominated by asymmetric, simple-shear kinematics, the Northern Apennines expose a complex groups of units, referred to as Ligurian Units, that record the incorporation into the subduction factory of either fragments of the Ligure-Piemontese oceanic domain (i.e. Internal Ligurian Units), and various portions of the thinned Adria margin (i.e. External Ligurian Units), describable as an Ocean-Continent Transition Zone (OCTZ). The structural relationships between these groups of Units are crucial for the definition of the pre-collisional evolution of the belt and have been the subject of big debates in the literature, together with the location and

  8. Target-oriented obstacle analysis by PESTEL modeling of energy efficiency retrofit for existing residential buildings in China's northern heating region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shilei, Lv; Wu Yong

    2009-01-01

    According to the 'Comprehensive Work Program of Energy Efficiency and Emission Reduction' of the Chinese government, during the period of the '11th Five-Year Plan', 1.5x10 8 m 2 of existing residential buildings in China's northern heating region are to be retrofitted for energy efficiency. However, at present, this 'Energy Efficiency Retrofit for Existing Residential Buildings' (EERFERB) faces many obstacles. Under the current working and market system, both the central and local governments and the energy supply companies can not push on this work smoothly. Using both the results of the annual national special inspection of building energy efficiency and some case analyses, this paper examines the necessity for energy efficiency retrofit, along with the relationships among the various Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Environmental and Legal (PESTEL) factors affecting it. Furthermore, organizational, financial and technical support systems are explored to promote the development of retrofit. Finally, some primary principles to be followed toward the implementation of EERFERB are suggested.

  9. Target-oriented obstacle analysis by PESTEL modeling of energy efficiency retrofit for existing residential buildings in China's northern heating region

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shilei, Lv [School of Environment Science and Technology, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072 (China); Yong, Wu [Department of Science and Technology, Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development of the People' s Republic of China, Beijing 100835 (China)

    2009-06-15

    According to the 'Comprehensive Work Program of Energy Efficiency and Emission Reduction' of the Chinese government, during the period of the '11th Five-Year Plan', 1.5 x 10{sup 8} m{sup 2} of existing residential buildings in China's northern heating region are to be retrofitted for energy efficiency. However, at present, this 'Energy Efficiency Retrofit for Existing Residential Buildings' (EERFERB) faces many obstacles. Under the current working and market system, both the central and local governments and the energy supply companies can not push on this work smoothly. Using both the results of the annual national special inspection of building energy efficiency and some case analyses, this paper examines the necessity for energy efficiency retrofit, along with the relationships among the various Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Environmental and Legal (PESTEL) factors affecting it. Furthermore, organizational, financial and technical support systems are explored to promote the development of retrofit. Finally, some primary principles to be followed toward the implementation of EERFERB are suggested. (author)

  10. [Border effect and physiological characteristics of broomcorn millet under film mulching on ridge-furrow for harvesting rainwater model in the semi-arid region of Northern Shaanxi, China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qu, Yang; Su, Wang; Li, Cui; Gao, Jin-Feng; Gao, Xiao-Li; Wang, Peng-Ke; Feng, Bai-Li; Chai, Yan

    2014-03-01

    To explore the border effect and physiological characteristic of broomcorn millet growing under different film mulching on ridge-furrow for harvesting rainwater models in the semi-arid region of Northern Shaanxi, China, a three-year field experiment was conducted with four different widths of ridge and furrow, and the bare land flat sowing as the control (NM). The width of ridge and furrow varied as ridge: furrow = 40 cm: 40 cm (P40), 60 cm: 60 cm (P60), 80 cm: 80 cm (P80), and 100 cm:100 cm (P100). The results showed that the wider the width of furrow and ridge was, the stronger the border advantage and the border effect index of the yield were. With the increase in width of furrow and ridge, the yield increasing effect of side rows increased with the maximum of 207.7%, and the yield increasing effect of middle rows decreased with the minimum of 10.3%. P60 reached the highest yield within three years. The yield contribution rate of side rows was higher than that of middle rows (P < 0.05). The chlorophyll contents, Ch1 a/Ch1 b, and photosynthetic rate of side rows were higher than those of middle rows among the different harvesting rainwater models. The wider the width of furrow and ridge was, the stronger the photosynthetic capacity of side rows was, and the weaker the photosynthetic capacity of middle rows was. The optimal type of ridge and furrow was P60 in the semi-arid region of Northern Shaanxi.

  11. Modelling the location of shallow landslides and their effects on landscape dynamics in large watersheds: An application for Northern New Zealand

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Claessens, L.; Schoorl, J.M.; Veldkamp, A.

    2007-01-01

    In this study we propose a model to assess the location of shallow landslides and their impact on landscape development within a timeframe of years to decades. Processes that need to be incorporated in the model are reviewed then followed by the proposed modelling framework. The capabilities of the

  12. Uncoupled vs. coupled thrust belt-foreland deformation: a model for northern Patagonia inferred from U-Th/He and apatite fission track dating

    Science.gov (United States)

    Savignano, Elisa; Mazzoli, Stefano; Zattin, Massimiliano; Gautheron, Cécile; Franchini, Marta

    2017-04-01

    The study of the Cretaceous - Cenozoic evolution of the Patagonian Andes represents a great opportunity to investigate the effects of coupling between deep lithospheric processes and near-surface deformation. Low-temperature thermochronological systems are ideally suited for detecting events involving rocks in the uppermost part of the crust because they record time and rates of cooling related to exhumation of the top few kilometers of the crust. The Patagonia region, although characterized by a general continuity of the Andean orogen along its strike, shows an appreciable internal tectonic segmentation (marked by a variable position of the magmatic arc and of the deformation front in the retroarc area) at various latitudes. This complex structural architecture has been interpreted as the result of different processes acting since the Late Cretaceous. The present-day configuration of the southern Andes is interpreted to have been controlled by alternating stages of flat- and steep-slab subduction, which produced shortening and upper plate extension episodes,, respectively. Furthermore, the deformation in this whole retroarc sector varied not only in time (i.e. with major 'cycles' of mountain building and orogenic collapse), but also in space, due to the variable transmission of horizontal compressive stress away from the orogen, that produced an irregular unroofing pattern. In this study, we have integrated field structural observations with new apatite (U-Th)/He data (AHe) and apatite fission-track (AFT) ages in the north Patagonia region (at latitudes between 40° and 44°S) in order to analyse and compare the exhumation patterns from the frontal part of the orogen and from the adjacent foreland sector, as well as to gain new insights into the timing and modes of coupling vs. uncoupling of the deformation between the northern Patagonian fold and thrust belt and its foreland. The obtained data indicate a markedly different unroofing pattern between the 'broken

  13. A Revised Subduction Inception Model to Explain the Late Cretaceous, Double-Vergent Orogen in the Precollisional Western Tethys: Evidence From the Northern Apennines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marroni, Michele; Meneghini, Francesca; Pandolfi, Luca

    2017-10-01

    The Meso-Cenozoic alpine belts of the Mediterranean area are characterized by complex architectures, result of a complex subduction and collision evolution that preserve also a legacy of the rifting-related configuration of the continental margins. The Northern Apennines is a segment of these belts originated during closure of the Ligure-Piemontese ocean and collision between the Europe and Adria plates. The different configuration of the Adria and Europe margins, inherited from asymmetric rifting, is recorded in the Ligurian Units that preserve incorporation into the subduction factory of fragments of the oceanic domain (Internal Ligurian Units) and portions of the Ocean-Continent Transition Zone (OCTZ) toward Adria (External Ligurian Units). We provide here unpublished data on the stratigraphy and sedimentology of these units, together with a review of what is already established in literature. Both data sets combined testify that at 80 Ma, an accretionary prism was growing between the deposition basins of the two groups of units and fed both basins with clasts from the ocean realm, the continental crust, and the subcontinental mantle. We propose that closure of the Ligure-Piemontese ocean occurred through subduction that nucleated at the transition from the oceanic plate and the thinned Adria margin and developed a double-vergent prism by accreting oceanic material and continental extensional allochthons from the OCTZ. We believe the revised site of subduction initiation, and the precollisional architecture, inherited from the rifting and spreading phases, allows reconciling most of the discrepancies between the various interpretations proposed in literature for the precollisional evolution of the Apennines.

  14. Making 3D movies of Northern Lights

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hivon, Eric; Mouette, Jean; Legault, Thierry

    2017-10-01

    We describe the steps necessary to create three-dimensional (3D) movies of Northern Lights or Aurorae Borealis out of real-time images taken with two distant high-resolution fish-eye cameras. Astrometric reconstruction of the visible stars is used to model the optical mapping of each camera and correct for it in order to properly align the two sets of images. Examples of the resulting movies can be seen at http://www.iap.fr/aurora3d

  15. Using a coupled groundwater/surface-water model to predict climate-change impacts to lakes in the Trout Lake Watershed, northern Wisconsin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunt, Randall; Walker, John F.; Markstrom, Steven L.; Hay, Lauren E.; Doherty, John; Webb, Richard M.T.; Semmens, Darius J.

    2009-01-01

    A major focus of the U.S. Geological Survey’s Trout Lake Water, Energy, and Biogeochemical Budgets (WEBB) project is the development of a watershed model to allow predictions of hydrologic response to future conditions including land-use and climate change. The coupled groundwater/surface-water model GSFLOW was chosen for this purpose because it could easily incorporate an existing groundwater flow model and it provides for simulation of surface-water processes.

  16. Use of participatory modeling workshops in a water-stressed basin of northern Mexico to assess sustainable water resources management and conduct community outreach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vivoni, E. R.; Mayer, A. S.; Halvorsen, K. E.; Robles-Morua, A.; Kossak, D.

    2016-12-01

    A series of iterative participatory modeling workshops were held in Sonora, México with the goal of developing water resources management strategies in a water-stressed basin subject to hydro-climatic variability and change. A model of the water resources system, consisting of watershed hydrology, water resources infrastructure, and groundwater models, was developed deliberatively in the workshops, along with scenarios of future climate and development. Participants used the final version of the water resources systems model to select from supply-side and demand-side water resources management strategies. The performance of the strategies was based on the reliability of meeting current and future demands at a daily time scale over a year's period. Pre- and post-workshop surveys were developed and administered. The survey questions focused on evaluation of participants' modeling capacity and the utility and accuracy of the models. The selected water resources strategies and the associated, expected reliability varied widely among participants. Most participants could be clustered into three groups with roughly equal numbers of participants that varied in terms of reliance on expanding infrastructure vs. demand modification; expectations of reliability; and perceptions of social, environmental, and economic impacts. The wide range of strategies chosen and associated reliabilities indicate that there is a substantial degree of uncertainty in how future water resources decisions could be made in the region. The pre- and post-survey results indicate that participants believed their modeling abilities increased and beliefs in the utility of models increased as a result of the workshops

  17. Joint influence of the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool and Northern Arabian Sea Temperatures on the Indian Summer Monsoon in a Global Climate Model Simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Befort, Daniel J.; Leckebusch, Gregor C.; Cubasch, Ulrich

    2016-04-01

    Proxy-based studies confirmed that the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) shows large variations during the Holocene. These changes might be explained by changes in orbital conditions and solar insolation but are also thought to be associated to changes in oceanic conditions, e.g. over the Indo-Pacific-Warm-Pool region. However, due to the nature of these (proxy-based) analyses no conclusion about atmospheric circulation changes during dry and wet epochs are possible. Here, a fully-coupled global climate simulation (AOGCM) covering the past 6000 years is analysed regarding ISM variability. Several dry and wet epochs are found, the most striking around 2ka BP (dry) and 1.7ka BP (wet). As only orbital parameters change during integration, we expect these "shorter-term" changes to be associated with changes in oceanic conditions. During 1.7ka BP the sea surface temperatures (SST) over the Northern Arabian Sea (NARAB) are significantly warmer compared to 2ka BP, whereas cooler conditions are found over the western Pacific Ocean. Additionally, significant differences are found over large parts of the North Atlantic. To explain in how far these different ocean basins are responsible for anomalous conditions during 1.7ka BP, several sensitivity experiments with changed SST/SIC conditions are carried out. It is found that neither the SST's in the Pacific nor in the Indian Ocean are able to reproduce the anomalous rainfall and atmospheric circulation patterns during 1.7ka on its own. Instead, anomalous dry conditions during 2ka BP and wet conditions during 1.7ka BP are associated with a shift of the Indo-Pacific-Warm-Pool (IPWP) and simultaneous anomalous sea-surface temperatures over the NARAB region. Eventually, it is tested in how far this hypothesis holds true for other dry and wet events in the AOGCM data during the whole 6000 years. In general, a shift of the IPWP without anomalous SST conditions over the NARAB region (and vice versa) is not sufficient to cause long

  18. Cervical Cancer Screening Service Uptake and Associated Factors among Age Eligible Women in Mekelle Zone, Northern Ethiopia, 2015: A Community Based Study Using Health Belief Model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hinsermu Bayu

    Full Text Available Cervical cancer is the third most common cancer among women worldwide, with about 500,000 new patients diagnosed and over 250,000 deaths every year. Cervical cancer screening offers protective benefits and is associated with a reduction in the incidence of invasive cervical cancer and cervical cancer mortality. But there is very low participation rate in screening for cervical cancer among low and middle-income countries.This study aimed to determine cervical cancer screening service uptake and its associated factor among age eligible women in Mekelle zone, northern Ethiopia, 2015.A community based cross-sectional study was conducted in Mekelle zone among age eligible women from February to June 2015. Systematic sampling technique was used to select 1286 women in to the study. A pre-tested structured questionnaire was used to collect relevant data. Data was entered and cleaned using EPINFO and analyzed using SPSS version 20 software package. Bivariate and Multivariate logistic regression was performed to assess association between dependent and independent variables with 95% CI and p-value less than 0.05 was set for association.The study revealed that among 1186 age eligible women, only 235(19.8% have been screened for cervical cancer. Age (AOR = 1.799, 95%CI = 1.182-2.739, history of multiple sexual partners (AOR = 1.635, 95%CI = 1.094-2.443, history of sexually transmitted disease (AOR = 1.635,95%CI = 1.094-2.443, HIV sero status (AOR = 5.614, 95%CI = 2.595-12.144, perceived susceptibility to cervical cancer (AOR = 2.225, 95%CI = 1.308-3.783, perceived barriers to premalignant cervical lesions screening (AOR = 2.256, 95%CI = 1.447-3.517 and knowledge on cervical cancer and screening (AOR = 2.355, 95%CI = 1.155-4.802 were significant predictors of cervical cancer screening service uptake.Magnitude of cervical cancer screening service uptake among age eligible women is still unacceptably low. Age of the women, history of multiple sexual partners

  19. Virginia Tech To Showcase Northern Virginia Research

    OpenAIRE

    Cunningham, Deborah

    2003-01-01

    Virginia Tech graduate students and faculty members in Northern Virginia will display and explain their most current research at the first Virginia Tech at Northern Virginia Research Exposition April 17 at the Northern Virginia Center in Fairfax.

  20. From the Northern Eurasia Earth Science Partnership Initiative to the Northern Eurasia Future Initiative

    Science.gov (United States)

    Streletskiy, D. A.; Groisman, P. Y.; Shugart, H. H., Jr.; Gulev, S.; Maksyutov, S. S.; Qi, J.

    2017-12-01

    Since 2004, the Northern Eurasia Earth Science Partnership Initiative (NEESPI) - an interdisciplinary program of internationally-supported Earth systems and science research - has addressed large-scale and long-term manifestations of climate and environmental changes over Northern Eurasia and their impact on the Global Earth system. With 40 books and more than 1500 peer-reviewed journal publications to its credit, NEESPI's output can now be used to directly support decision-making for societal needs. Specifically, it was decided to shift gradually the foci of regional studies in Northern Eurasia towards applications with the following major Science Question: "What dynamic and interactive change(s) will affect societal well-being, activities, and health, and what might be the mitigation and adaptation strategies that could support sustainable development and decision-making activities in Northern Eurasia?" To answer this question requires a stronger socio-economic component in the ongoing and future regional studies focused on sustainable societal development under changing climatic and environmental conditions. The NEESPI Research Team has reorganized itself into "Northern Eurasia Future Initiative" (NEFI) and developed a new Science Plan released in June 2016. The Plan underwent a 6-month-long public review and was finalized at the end of 2016. Its description was thereafter split between two review papers: Groisman et al. (2017) and Monier et al. (2017). The first paper describes the Plan rationale and a new set of topical questions. The second paper describes a major modeling approach that will be employed in addressing the "what to do" questions of the NEFI Research (cf., presentation by Monier et al. at this Session). In the current presentation, we outline the new NEFI research foci and present latest NEFI findings including international projects in the Eurasian Arctic, boreal zone, and the Dry Land Belt of Northern Eurasia (cf., also presentations at sister

  1. Fracture-network analysis of the Latemar Platform (northern Italy): integrating outcrop studies to constrain the hydraulic properties of fractures in reservoir models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boro, H.; Rosero, E.; Bertotti, G.V.

    2014-01-01

    Fractures in subsurface reservoirs are known to have significant impacts on reservoir productivity. Quantifying their importance, however, is challenged by limited subsurface observations, and intense computations for modelling and upscaling. In this paper, we present a workflow to construct and

  2. Geologic-seismic models, prediction of shallow-water lacustrine delta sandbody and hydrocarbon potential in the Late Miocene, Huanghekou Sag, Bohai Bay Basin, northern China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hao Liu

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The Huanghekou Sag is located at the southeast part of the Bohai Bay Basin, northern China. Large-scale shallow lake delta developed in the Neogene provided suitable geological conditions for the formation of a subtle oil-gas reservoir in this area. The key for analyzing sandstone reservoir and sedimentary facies is by using seismic attributes (amplitude to establish the relationship between lithology combination and seismic attributes. The lower unit of Late Miocene Minghuazhen Formation at the BZ34 block in the Huanghekou Sag was subdivided into 10 parasequence sets (PSS. Thicker sandstones mainly occurred in PSS1 and PSS10, whereas thin sandstones are mostly observed within other parasequence sets. This study presents statistics and analyses of lithology, i.e., statistics of root-mean-square (RMS amplitude and lithology of well locations in different parasequence sets of the study area, as well as 1-D forward seismic models of 7 types of lithology combinations, the establishment of a spatial distribution of 2-D sandbody, forward seismic models etc. Our study indicates that high amplitude peaks correspond to thicker sandbodies, while low amplitude indicates non-development of sandbodies (generally less than 2 m, and medium amplitude agrees well with large sets of mudstones interbedded with medium and thinner sandstones. Different sand–mudstone combinations genetically reflect a combination of multiple micro-facies, therefore, amplitude features can predict sandbodies as well as facies characteristics.

  3. Offshore Wind Atlas for Northern European Seas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hasager, Charlotte Bay; Karagali, Ioanna; Astrup, Poul; Badger, Merete; Mouche, Alexis; Stoffelen, Ad

    2010-12-01

    Offshore winds are investigated in detail in the EU- Norsewind project - short for Northern Seas Wind Index Database - that aims to produce an offshore wind atlas for the Northern European Seas including the Baltic Sea, the North Sea and the Irish Sea. The results are preliminary as they are from mid-term in the project (2008-2012). The results include mean wind speeds from Envisat ASAR, QuikSCAT and SSM/I compared to masts. The spatial variability across the area is clearly identified with major coastal effects in the enclosed seas. The long-term trend analysis does not indicate any trend in the different wind speed bins investigated during 23 years. The next step is further comparison to ground-based lidar data and atmospheric model results.

  4. Dependency on aquaculture in northern Vietnam

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Le Minh, Hanh; Phan, Van Thi; Nghia, Nguyen Huu

    2017-01-01

    Whilst a range of studies address the aquaculture livelihoods in southern Vietnam’s Mekong Delta, the role of aquaculture in northern Vietnam remains less described. We, therefore, conducted interviews with 199 households in the two northern provinces Quang Ninh and Nghe An in 2014 to analyse...... the dependence on aquaculture in these two provinces and amongst farmers specializing in shrimp and freshwater fish production, respectively. Further, we tested the ability of different socio-economic variables to explain the observed reliance on aquaculture using an ANCOVA model. The study identifies...... a substantial reliance on aquaculture of farmers in the study area with at least half of their income generated by aquaculture. Our analyses highlight that the educational background of farmers explain their engagement in aquaculture better than how long they have worked as aquaculture farmers. Freshwater fish...

  5. The Milankovitch theory and climate sensitivity. I - Equilibrium climate model solutions for the present surface conditions. II - Interaction between the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets and the climate system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neeman, Binyamin U.; Ohring, George; Joseph, Joachim H.

    1988-01-01

    A seasonal climate model was developed to test the climate sensitivity and, in particular, the Milankovitch (1941) theory. Four climate model versions were implemented to investigate the range of uncertainty in the parameterizations of three basic feedback mechanisms: the ice albedo-temperature, the outgoing long-wave radiation-temperature, and the eddy transport-meridional temperature gradient. It was found that the differences between the simulation of the present climate by the four versions were generally small, especially for annually averaged results. The climate model was also used to study the effect of growing/shrinking of a continental ice sheet, bedrock sinking/uplifting, and sea level changes on the climate system, taking also into account the feedback effects on the climate of the building of the ice caps.

  6. Simulation of surface temperature and ice cover of large northern lakes with 1-D models: a comparison with MODIS satellite data and in situ measurements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Kheyrollah Pour

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Lake surface temperature (LST and ice phenology were simulated for various points differing in depth on Great Slave Lake and Great Bear Lake, two large lakes located in the Mackenzie River Basin in Canada's Northwest Territories, using the 1-D Freshwater Lake model (FLake and the Canadian Lake Ice Model (CLIMo over the 2002–2010 period, forced with data from three weather stations (Yellowknife, Hay River and Deline. LST model results were compared to those derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS aboard the Earth Observing System Terra and Aqua satellite platforms. Simulated ice thickness and freeze-up/break-up dates were also compared to in situ observations. Both models showed a good agreement with daily average MODIS LSTs on an annual basis (0.935  ≤  relative index of agreement  ≤  0.984 and 0.94  ≤  mean bias error  ≤  4.83. The absence of consideration of snow on lake ice in FLake was found to have a large impact on estimated ice thicknesses (25 cm thicker on average by the end of winter compared to in situ measurements; 9 cm thicker for CLIMo and break-up dates (6 d earlier in comparison with in situ measurements; 3 d later for CLIMo. The overall agreement between the two models and MODIS LST products during both the open water and ice seasons was good. Remotely sensed data are a promising data source for assimilation into numerical weather prediction models, as they provide the spatial coverage that is not captured by in situ data.

  7. Application of PestLCI model to site-specific soil and climate conditions: the case of maize production in Northern Italy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fantin, Valentina; Righi, Serena; Buscaroli, Alessandro

    2016-01-01

    The calculation of emissions from the use of pesticides is a critical issue in LCA studies of agrifood products and only occasionally discussed in details in literature studies. The objective of this study is to assess the results of the application of PestLCI 2.0 model to the production of maize...... in the surrounding areas. Results show that soil variation scarcely affects the emissions to air and surface water are whereas it affects significantly the emissions to groundwater. Finally, some features of PestLCI were highlighted and comments for a further improvement of the model were provided....

  8. Geomorphology and landscape organization of a northern peatland complex

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richardson, M. C.

    2012-12-01

    The geomorphic evolution of northern peatlands is governed by complex ecohydrological feedback mechanisms and associated hydro-climatic drivers. For example, prevailing models of bog development (i.e. Ingram's groundwater mounding hypothesis and variants) attempt to explicitly link bog dome characteristics to the regional climate based on analytical and numerical models of lateral groundwater flow and the first-order control of water table position on rates of peat accumulation. In this talk I will present new results from quantitative geomorphic analyses of a northern peatland complex at the De Beers Victor diamond mine site in the Hudson Bay Lowlands of northern Ontario. This work capitalizes on spatially-extensive, high-resolution topographic (LiDAR) data to rigorously test analytical and numerical models of bog dome development in this landscape. The analysis and discussion are then expanded beyond individual bog formations to more broadly consider ecohydrological drivers of landscape organization, with implications for understanding and modeling catchment-scale runoff response. Results show that in this landscape, drainage patterns exhibit relatively well-organized characteristics consistent with observed runoff responses in six gauged research catchments. Interpreted together, the results of these geomorphic and hydrologic analyses help refine our understanding of water balance partitioning among different landcover types within northern peatland complexes. These findings can be used to help guide the development of appropriate numerical model structures for hydrologic prediction in ungauged peatland basins of northern Canada.

  9. Shaken but not stirred: Multiscale habitat suitability modeling of sympatric marten species (Martes martes and Martes foina) in the northern Iberian Peninsula

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maria Vergara; Samuel A. Cushman; Fermin Urra; Aritz Ruiz-Gonzalez

    2016-01-01

    Multispecies and multiscale habitat suitability models (HSM) are important to identify the environmental variables and scales influencing habitat selection and facilitate the comparison of closely related species with different ecological requirements. Objectives This study explores the multiscale relationships of habitat suitability for the pine (Martes...

  10. Role of erosion and isostasy in the Cordillera Blanca uplift: insights from Low-T thermochronology and landscape evolution modeling (northern Peru, Andes)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Margirier, A.; Robert, X.; Braun, J.; Laurence, A.

    2017-12-01

    The uplift and exhumation of the highest Peruvian peaks seems closely linked to the Cordillera Blanca normal fault that delimits and shape the western flank of the Cordillera Blanca. Two models have been previously proposed to explain the occurrence of extension and the presence of this active normal fault in a compression setting but the Cordillera Blanca normal fault and the uplift and exhumation of the Cordillera Blanca remain enigmatic. Recent studies suggested an increase of exhumation rates during the Quaternary in the Cordillera Blanca and related this increase to a change in climate and erosion process (glacial erosion vs. fluvial erosion). The Cordillera Blanca granite has been significantly eroded since its emplacement (12-5 Ma) indicating a significant mass of rocks removal. Whereas it has been demonstrated recently that the effect of eroding denser rocks can contribute to an increase of uplift rate, the impact of erosion and isostasy on the increase of the Cordillera Blanca uplift rates has never been explored. Based on numerical modeling of landscape evolution we address the role of erosion and isostasy in the uplift and exhumation of the Cordillera Blanca. We performed inversions of the present-day topography, total exhumation and thermochronological data using a landscape evolution model (FastScape). Our results evidence the contribution of erosion and associated flexural rebound to the uplift of the Cordillera Blanca. Our models suggest that the erosion of the Cordillera Blanca dense intrusion since 3 Ma could also explain the Quaternary exhumation rate increase in this area. Finally, our results allow to question the previous models proposed for the formation of the Cordillera Blanca normal fault.

  11. Changes in the structure and function of northern Alaskan ecosystems when considering variable leaf-out times across groupings of species in a dynamic vegetation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Euskirchen, E.S.; Carman, T.B.; McGuire, Anthony David

    2013-01-01

    The phenology of arctic ecosystems is driven primarily by abiotic forces, with temperature acting as the main determinant of growing season onset and leaf budburst in the spring. However, while the plant species in arctic ecosystems require differing amounts of accumulated heat for leaf-out, dynamic vegetation models simulated over regional to global scales typically assume some average leaf-out for all of the species within an ecosystem. Here, we make use of air temperature records and observations of spring leaf phenology collected across dominant groupings of species (dwarf birch shrubs, willow shrubs, other deciduous shrubs, grasses, sedges, and forbs) in arctic and boreal ecosystems in Alaska. We then parameterize a dynamic vegetation model based on these data for four types of tundra ecosystems (heath tundra, shrub tundra, wet sedge tundra, and tussock tundra), as well as ecotonal boreal white spruce forest, and perform model simulations for the years 1970 -2100. Over the course of the model simulations, we found changes in ecosystem composition under this new phenology algorithm compared to simulations with the previous phenology algorithm. These changes were the result of the differential timing of leaf-out, as well as the ability for the groupings of species to compete for nitrogen and light availability. Regionally, there were differences in the trends of the carbon pools and fluxes between the new phenology algorithm and the previous phenology algorithm, although these differences depended on the future climate scenario. These findings indicate the importance of leaf phenology data collection by species and across the various ecosystem types within the highly heterogeneous Arctic landscape, and that dynamic vegetation models should consider variation in leaf-out by groupings of species within these ecosystems to make more accurate projections of future plant distributions and carbon cycling in Arctic regions.

  12. High-Resolution Ecological Niche Modeling of Ixodes scapularis Ticks Based on Passive Surveillance Data at the Northern Frontier of Lyme Disease Emergence in North America.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soucy, Jean-Paul R; Slatculescu, Andreea M; Nyiraneza, Christine; Ogden, Nicholas H; Leighton, Patrick A; Kerr, Jeremy T; Kulkarni, Manisha A

    2018-03-22

    Lyme disease (LD) is a bacterial infection transmitted by the black-legged tick (Ixodes scapularis) in eastern North America. It is an emerging disease in Canada due to the expanding range of its tick vector. Environmental risk maps for LD, based on the distribution of the black-legged tick, have focused on coarse determinants such as climate. However, climatic factors vary little within individual health units, the level at which local public health decision-making takes place. We hypothesize that high-resolution environmental data and routinely collected passive surveillance data can be used to develop valid models for tick occurrence and provide insight into ecological processes affecting tick presence at fine scales. We used a maximum entropy algorithm (MaxEnt) to build a habitat suitability model for I. scapularis in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada using georeferenced occurrence points from passive surveillance data collected between 2013 and 2016 and high-resolution land cover and elevation data. We evaluated our model using an independent tick presence/absence dataset collected through active surveillance at 17 field sites during the summer of 2017. Our model showed a good ability to discriminate positive sites from negative sites for tick presence (AUC = 0.878 ± 0.019, classification accuracy = 0.835 ± 0.020). Heavily forested suburban and rural areas in the west and southwest of Ottawa had higher predicted suitability than the more agricultural eastern areas. This study demonstrates the value of passive surveillance data to model local-scale environmental risk for the tick vector of LD at sites of interest to public health. Given the rising incidence of LD and other emerging vector-borne diseases in Canada, our findings support the ongoing collection of these data and collaboration with researchers to provide a timely and accurate portrait of evolving public health risk.

  13. Comparison of SWAT and GeoWEPP model in predicting the impact of stone bunds on runoff and erosion processes in the Northern Ethiopian Highlands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Demelash, Nigus; Flagler, Jared; Renschler, Chris; Strohmeier, Stefan; Holzmann, Hubert; Feras, Ziadat; Addis, Hailu; Zucca, Claudio; Bayu, Wondimu; Klik, Andreas

    2017-04-01

    Soil degradation is a major issue in the Ethiopian highlands which are most suitable for agriculture and, therefore, support a major part of human population and livestock. Heavy rainstorms during the rainy season in summer create soil erosion and runoff processes which affect soil fertility and food security. In the last years programs for soil conservation and afforestation were initiated by the Ethiopian government to reduce erosion risk, retain water in the landscape and improve crop yields. The study was done in two adjacent watersheds in the Northwestern highlands of Ethiopia. One of the watersheds is developed by soil and water conservation structures (stone bunds) in 2011 and the other one is without soil and water conservation structures. Spatial distribution of soil textures and other soil properties were determined in the field and in the laboratory and a soil map was derived. A land use map was evaluated based on satellite images and ground truth data. A Digital Elevation Model of the watershed was developed based on conventional terrestrial surveying using a total station. At the outlet of the watersheds weirs with cameras were installed to measure surface runoff. During each event runoff samples were collected and sediment concentration was analyzed. The objective of this study is 1) to assess the impact of stone bunds on runoff and erosion processes by using simulation models, and 2) to compare the performance of two soil erosion models in predicting the measurements. The selected erosion models were the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and the Geospatial Interface to the Water Erosion Prediction Project (GeoWEPP). The simulation models were calibrated/verified for the 2011-2013 periods and validated with 2014-2015 data. Results of this comparison will be presented.

  14. Synthesis of Remote Sensing and Field Observations to Model and Understand Disturbance and Climate Effects on the Carbon Balance of Oregon & Northern California

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Beverly Law; David Turner; Warren Cohen; Mathias Goeckede

    2008-05-22

    The goal is to quantify and explain the carbon (C) budget for Oregon and N. California. The research compares "bottom -up" and "top-down" methods, and develops prototype analytical systems for regional analysis of the carbon balance that are potentially applicable to other continental regions, and that can be used to explore climate, disturbance and land-use effects on the carbon cycle. Objectives are: 1) Improve, test and apply a bottom up approach that synthesizes a spatially nested hierarchy of observations (multispectral remote sensing, inventories, flux and extensive sites), and the Biome-BGC model to quantify the C balance across the region; 2) Improve, test and apply a top down approach for regional and global C flux modeling that uses a model-data fusion scheme (MODIS products, AmeriFlux, atmospheric CO2 concentration network), and a boundary layer model to estimate net ecosystem production (NEP) across the region and partition it among GPP, R(a) and R(h). 3) Provide critical understanding of the controls on regional C balance (how NEP and carbon stocks are influenced by disturbance from fire and management, land use, and interannual climate variation). The key science questions are, "What are the magnitudes and distributions of C sources and sinks on seasonal to decadal time scales, and what processes are controlling their dynamics? What are regional spatial and temporal variations of C sources and sinks? What are the errors and uncertainties in the data products and results (i.e., in situ observations, remote sensing, models)?

  15. Impacts of Northern Pike on stocked Rainbow Trout in Pactola Reservoir, South Dakota

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scheibel, Natalie C.; Dembkowski, Daniel J.; Davis, Jacob L.; Chipps, Steven R.

    2016-01-01

    Establishment of nonnative Northern Pike Esox lucius in Pactola Reservoir, South Dakota, has prompted concern among biologists about the influence of this species on the lake’s intensively managed salmonid fisheries. Ancedotal information suggests that catch rates of Rainbow Trout Oncorhynchus mykiss have declined while mean size and abundance of Northern Pike has increased, although quantitative information on diet and growth of the Northern Pike population is lacking. To address potential interactions between Northern Pike and Rainbow Trout, we assessed size-dependent predation by Northern Pike on Rainbow Trout and determined the relative energetic contribution of stocked Rainbow Trout to Northern Pike growth using bioenergetics modeling. Stable isotopes combined with traditional diet analyses revealed that smaller Northern Pike (accounted for 56% of their annual energy consumption. Combining estimates of Northern Pike predation with production costs of catchable-size Rainbow Trout revealed that annual economic losses ranged from US$15,259 to $24,801 per year. Over its lifespan, an age-10 Northern Pike was estimated to consume ~117 Rainbow Trout worth approximately $340. Thus, Northern Pike predation substantially influences salmonid management initiatives and is likely a primary factor contributing to reduced Rainbow Trout abundance and return to anglers in Pactola Reservoir. Strategies for reducing Northern Pike predation on Rainbow Trout include increasing the size of stocked fish or altering the timing and spatial distribution of stocking events.

  16. Fishery stock assessment of Kiddi shrimp ( Parapenaeopsis stylifera) in the Northern Arabian Sea Coast of Pakistan by using surplus production models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohsin, Muhammad; Mu, Yongtong; Memon, Aamir Mahmood; Kalhoro, Muhammad Talib; Shah, Syed Baber Hussain

    2017-07-01

    Pakistani marine waters are under an open access regime. Due to poor management and policy implications, blind fishing is continued which may result in ecological as well as economic losses. Thus, it is of utmost importance to estimate fishery resources before harvesting. In this study, catch and effort data, 1996-2009, of Kiddi shrimp Parapenaeopsis stylifera fishery from Pakistani marine waters was analyzed by using specialized fishery software in order to know fishery stock status of this commercially important shrimp. Maximum, minimum and average capture production of P. stylifera was observed as 15 912 metric tons (mt) (1997), 9 438 mt (2009) and 11 667 mt/a. Two stock assessment tools viz. CEDA (catch and effort data analysis) and ASPIC (a stock production model incorporating covariates) were used to compute MSY (maximum sustainable yield) of this organism. In CEDA, three surplus production models, Fox, Schaefer and Pella-Tomlinson, along with three error assumptions, log, log normal and gamma, were used. For initial proportion (IP) 0.8, the Fox model computed MSY as 6 858 mt (CV=0.204, R 2 =0.709) and 7 384 mt (CV=0.149, R 2 =0.72) for log and log normal error assumption respectively. Here, gamma error produced minimization failure. Estimated MSY by using Schaefer and Pella-Tomlinson models remained the same for log, log normal and gamma error assumptions i.e. 7 083 mt, 8 209 mt and 7 242 mt correspondingly. The Schafer results showed highest goodness of fit R 2 (0.712) values. ASPIC computed MSY, CV, R 2, F MSY and B MSY parameters for the Fox model as 7 219 mt, 0.142, 0.872, 0.111 and 65 280, while for the Logistic model the computed values remained 7 720 mt, 0.148, 0.868, 0.107 and 72 110 correspondingly. Results obtained have shown that P. stylifera has been overexploited. Immediate steps are needed to conserve this fishery resource for the future and research on other species of commercial importance is urgently needed.

  17. Flight tracks, Northern California TRACON

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This dataset contains the records of all the flights in the Northern California TRACON. The data was provided by the aircraft noise abatement office...

  18. Northern Fur Seal Food Habits

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This data set contains food habits samples, usually scats, collected opportunistically on northern fur seal rookeries and haulouts in Alaska from 1987 to present....

  19. Derivation of avian dermal LD50 values for dermal exposure models using in vitro percutaneous absorption of [14C]-atrazine through rat, mallard, and northern bobwhite full thickness skin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maul, Jonathan D; Blackstock, Craig; Brain, Richard A

    2018-02-24

    Understanding dermal exposure is important for higher-tier avian ecological risk assessments. However, dermal exposure and toxicity are often unknown for avifauna. The US EPA's Terrestrial Investigation Model (TIM) uses a method to estimate avian dermal LD50 values (and ultimately dermal exposure) that frequently results in unusually high dermal exposure and low dermal LD50 estimates. This is primarily a result of using organophosphate and carbamate toxicity data to develop the oral-dermal relationship. An estimated dermal LD50 is necessary to generate a dermal route equivalency factor that normalizes potency relative to oral toxicity within the dermal pathway dose equation. In this study, atrazine dermal absorption experiments were conducted with mallard, northern bobwhite, and rat skin. These data were used to derive an avian-mammal dermal route equivalency factor for atrazine and introduce a new approach for estimating dermal LD50 values and ultimately predicting exposure via the TIM dermal pathway. Compared to the default TIM method, this new approach yielded TIM output with lower mean total dose, lower dermal fraction of total dose, greater oral fraction of total dose, and reduced model predicted mortality for atrazine. In addition, the new approach was compared with other methods for estimating avian dermal LD50 values such as those proposed for use with mammalian data and physico-chemical properties and a triazine-specific oral-dermal equation using mammalian LD50 data. The three alternative approaches resulted in output similar to one another and different from the default TIM methods. These results indicate that a dermal route equivalency factor derived from empirical data provides a higher avian dermal LD50 estimate that is consistent with other methods. In addition, the use of this dermal route equivalency factor results in greatly reduced modeled atrazine risk to birds than previously reported in US EPA risk assessments using TIM. Copyright © 2018

  20. Digital Geology from field to 3D modelling and Google Earth virtual environment: methods and goals from the Furlo Gorge (Northern Apennines - Italy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Donatis, Mauro; Susini, Sara

    2014-05-01

    A new map of the Furlo Gorge was surveyed and elaborated in a digital way. In every step of work we used digital tools as mobile GIS and 3D modelling software. Phase 1st Starting in the lab, planning the field project development, base cartography, forms and data base were designed in the way we thought was the best for collecting and store data in order of producing a digital n­-dimensional map. Bedding attitudes, outcrops sketches and description, stratigraphic logs, structural features and other informations were collected and organised in a structured database using rugged tablet PC, GPS receiver, digital cameras and later also an Android smartphone with some survey apps in-­house developed. A new mobile GIS (BeeGIS) was developed starting from an open source GIS (uDig): a number of tools like GPS connection, pen drawing annotations, geonotes, fieldbook, photo synchronization and geotagging were originally designed. Phase 2nd After some month of digital field work, all the informations were elaborated for drawing a geologic map in GIS environment. For that we use both commercial (ArcGIS) and open source (gvSig, QGIS, uDig) without big technical problems. Phase 3rd When we get to the step of building a 3D model (using 3DMove), passing trough the assisted drawing of cross-­sections (2DMove), we discovered a number of problems in the interpretation of geological structures (thrusts, normal faults) and more in the interpretation of stratigraphic thickness and boundaries and their relationships with topography. Phase 4th Before an "on­-armchair" redrawing of map, we decide to go back to the field and check directly what was wrong. Two main vantages came from this: (1) the mistakes we found could be reinterpreted and corrected directly in the field having all digital tools we need; (2) previous interpretations could be stored in GIS layers keeping memory of the previous work (also mistakes). Phase 5th A 3D model built with 3D Move is already almost self

  1. A model of seasonal foliage dynamics of the subtropical mangrove species Rhizophora stylosa Griff. growing at the northern limit of its distribution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sahadev Sharma

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Background Progress of forest production in response to the environment requires a quantitative understanding of leaf area development. Therefore, it is necessary to investigate the dynamics of seasonal crown foliage in order to understand the productivity of mangroves, which play an important role in the subtropical and tropical coastlines of the world. Method Crown foliage dynamics of the mangrove Rhizophora stylosa were studies to reveal patterns of leaf recruitment, survival and seasonal leaf area growth. Results Flushing of leaves occurred throughout the year, but both flushing and leaf area growth pattern of leaves varied with season. Maximum flushing occurred in summer, but leaf areas did not differ significantly with season. The half-expansion period is longer, and the intrinsic rate of increase was lower in winter. Summer flushed leaves grew faster at their initial stage and reached their maximum area over a shorter period of time. The difference in temperature and air vapor pressure deficit (VPD between summer and winter contributed to the present dynamics of foliage patterns. The mean leaf longevity was estimated to be 13.1 month. The crown foliage area was almost stable throughout the year. Conclusions Homeostatic control of the crown foliage area may be accompanied by the existence of ecophysiological mechanisms in R. stylosa. Integrating crown foliage dynamics into forest models represents an important step towards incorporating physiological mechanisms into the models for predicting growth responses to environmental changes and for understanding the complex responses of tree growth and litter production.

  2. Application of a hydrodynamic and sediment transport model for guidance of response efforts related to the Deepwater Horizon oil spill in the Northern Gulf of Mexico along the coast of Alabama and Florida

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plant, Nathaniel G.; Long, Joseph W.; Dalyander, P. Soupy; Thompson, David M.; Raabe, Ellen A.

    2013-01-01

    U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) scientists have provided a model-based assessment of transport and deposition of residual Deepwater Horizon oil along the shoreline within the northern Gulf of Mexico in the form of mixtures of sand and weathered oil, known as surface residual balls (SRBs). The results of this USGS research, in combination with results from other components of the overall study, will inform operational decisionmaking. The results will provide guidance for response activities and data collection needs during future oil spills. In May 2012 the U.S. Coast Guard, acting as the Deepwater Horizon Federal on-scene coordinator, chartered an operational science advisory team to provide a science-based review of data collected and to conduct additional directed studies and sampling. The goal was to characterize typical shoreline profiles and morphology in the northern Gulf of Mexico to identify likely sources of residual oil and to evaluate mechanisms whereby reoiling phenomena may be occurring (for example, burial and exhumation and alongshore transport). A steering committee cochaired by British Petroleum Corporation (BP) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is overseeing the project and includes State on-scene coordinators from four States (Alabama, Florida, Louisiana, and Mississippi), trustees of the U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI), and representatives from the U.S. Coast Guard. This report presents the results of hydrodynamic and sediment transport models and developed techniques for analyzing potential SRB movement and burial and exhumation along the coastline of Alabama and Florida. Results from these modeling efforts are being used to explain the complexity of reoiling in the nearshore environment and to broaden consideration of the different scenarios and difficulties that are being faced in identifying and removing residual oil. For instance, modeling results suggest that larger SRBs are not, under the most commonly

  3. Tornadoes Strike Northern Wisconsin

    Science.gov (United States)

    2007-01-01

    A series of tornadoes ripped through the Upper Midwest region of the United States in the evening of June 7, 2007. At least five different tornadoes touched down in Wisconsin, according to the Associated Press, one of which tore through the Bear Paw Resort in northern Wisconsin. Despite dropping as much as fifteen centimeters (six inches) of rain in some places and baseball-size hail in others, authorities were reporting no deaths attributable to the storm system, and only a smattering of injuries, but considerable property damage in some areas. When the MODIS instrument on NASA's Terra satellite observed the area on June 9, 2007, the track torn through the woods by one of the tornadoes stands out quite clearly. This photo-like image uses data collected by MODIS in the normal human vision range to give a familiar natural-looking appearance. The landscape is largely a checkerboard of farms, towns, roads, and cities. The pale land is predominantly farmland where crops have not fully grown in yet. Dark blue shows the winding path of rivers and lakes dotting the landscape. The large blue lake on the east (right) side of the image is Lake Michigan. Towns and cities, including the city of Green Bay, are gray. To the north side, farmland gives way to dark green as land use shifts from agriculture to the Menominee Indian Reservation and Nicolet National Forest. The diagonal slash through the dark green forested land shows the tornado track. Bare land was revealed where the tornado tore down trees or stripped vegetation off the branches. The high-resolution image provided above is at MODIS' full spatial resolution (level of detail) of 250 meters per pixel. The MODIS Rapid Response System provides this image at additional resolutions.

  4. The application of agricultural land rating and crop models to CO2 and climate change issues in Northern regions: the Mackenzie Basin case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. BRKLACICH

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available The Mackenzie Basin in northwestern Canada covers approximately 1.8 million km2 and extends from 52°N to 70°N. Much of the Basin is currently too cool and remote from markets to support a viable agricultural sector, but the southern portion of the Basin has the physical potential to support commercial agriculture. This case study employed agricultural land rating and crop models to estimate the degree to which a CO2-induced global warming might alter the physical potential for commercial agriculture throughout the Basin. The two climate change scenarios considered in this analysis would relax the current constraints imposed by a short and cool frost-free season, but without adaptive measures, drier conditions and accelerated crop development rates were estimated to offset potential gains stemming from elevated CO2 levels and warmer temperatures. In addition to striving for a better understanding of the extent to which physical constraints on agriculture might be modified by climate change, there is a need to expand the research context and to consider the capacity of agriculture to adapt to altered climates.;

  5. Analysis of spatial distribution characteristics of dissolved organic matter in typical greenhouse soil of northern China using three dimensional fluorescence spectra technique and parallel factor analysis model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pan, Hong-wei; Lei, Hong-jun; Han, Yu-ping; Xi, Bei-dou; He, Xiao-song; Xu, Qi-gong; Li, Dan

    2014-06-01

    The aim of the present work is to study the soil DOM characteristics in the vegetable greenhouse with a long-term of cultivation. Results showed that the soil DOM mainly consisted of three components, fulvic acid-like (C1), humic acid-like (C2) and protein-like (C3), with C1 as the majority one. The distribution of DOM in space was also studied. In vertical direction, C1 and C2 decreased significantly with the increase in soil depth, while C3 component decreased after increased. The humification coefficient decreased fast from 0-20 to 30-40 cm, and then increased from 30-40 to 40-50 cm. In the horizontal direction, the level of C2 component varied greatly in space, while that of C1 component changed little, and that of C3 component fell in between the above two. The change in the humification degree of each soil layer significantly varied spatially. Humification process of soil organic matter mainly occurred in the surface soil layer. In addition, the humification degree in space also changed significantly. The new ideas of this study are: (1) Analyze the composition and spatial heterogeneity of soil DOM in the vegetable greenhouse; (2) Use three dimensional fluorescence spectra technology and parallel factor analysis model successfully to quantify the components of soil DOM, which provides a new method for the soil DOM analysis.

  6. Forecasting the evolution in the mixing regime of a deep subalpine lake under climate change scenarios through numerical modelling (Lake Maggiore, Northern Italy/Southern Switzerland)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fenocchi, Andrea; Rogora, Michela; Sibilla, Stefano; Ciampittiello, Marzia; Dresti, Claudia

    2018-01-01

    The impact of air temperature rise is eminent for the large deep lakes in the Italian subalpine district, climate change being caused there by both natural phenomena and anthropogenic greenhouse-gases (GHG) emissions. These oligomictic lakes are experiencing a decrease in the frequency of winter full turnover and an intensification of stability. As a result, hypolimnetic oxygen concentrations are decreasing and nutrients are accumulating in bottom water, with effects on the whole ecosystem functioning. Forecasting the future evolution of the mixing pattern is relevant to assess if a reduction in GHG releases would be able to revert such processes. The study focuses on Lake Maggiore, for which the thermal structure evolution under climate change in the 2016-2085 period was assessed through numerical simulations, performed with the General Lake Model (GLM). Different prospects of regional air temperature rise were considered, given by the Swiss Climate Change Scenarios CH2011. Multiple realisations were performed for each scenario to obtain robust statistical predictions, adopting random series of meteorological data produced with the Vector-Autoregressive Weather Generator (VG). Results show that a reversion in the increasing thermal stability would be possible only if global GHG emissions started to be reduced by 2020, allowing an equilibrium mixing regime to be restored by the end of the twenty-first century. Otherwise, persistent lack of complete-mixing, severe water warming and extensive effects on water quality are to be expected for the centuries to come. These projections can be extended to the other lakes in the subalpine district.

  7. Simulated seasonal and interannual variability of mixed layer heat budget in the northern Indian Ocean

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    DeBoyer Montegut, C.; Vialard, J.; Shenoi, S.S.C.; Shankar, D.; Durand, F.; Ethe, C.; Madec, G.

    A global Ocean General Circulation Model (OGCM) is used to investigate the mixed layer heat budget of the Northern Indian Ocean (NIO). The model is validated against observations and shows a fairly good agreement with mixed layer depth data...

  8. Making 3D movies of Northern Lights

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hivon Eric

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available We describe the steps necessary to create three-dimensional (3D movies of Northern Lights or Aurorae Borealis out of real-time images taken with two distant high-resolution fish-eye cameras. Astrometric reconstruction of the visible stars is used to model the optical mapping of each camera and correct for it in order to properly align the two sets of images. Examples of the resulting movies can be seen at http://www.iap.fr/aurora3d.

  9. Northern Eurasia Future Initiative (NEFI)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Groisman, Pavel; Shugart, Herman; Kicklighter, David

    2017-01-01

    prepare societies for future developments. A key principle of NEFI is that these developments must now be secured through science-based strategies codesigned with regional decision-makers to lead their societies to prosperity in the face of environmental and institutional challenges. NEESPI scientific......During the past several decades, the Earth system has changed significantly, especially across Northern Eurasia. Changes in the socio-economic conditions of the larger countries in the region have also resulted in a variety of regional environmental changes that can have global consequences....... The Northern Eurasia Future Initiative (NEFI) has been designed as an essential continuation of the Northern Eurasia Earth Science Partnership Initiative (NEESPI), which was launched in 2004. NEESPI sought to elucidate all aspects of ongoing environmental change, to inform societies and, thus, to better...

  10. Coupling between the environment and the pelagic resources exploited off northern Chile: ecosystem indicators and a conceptual model Acoplamiento entre el ambiente y los recursos pelágicos explotados en el norte de Chile: un modelo conceptual

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eleuterio Yáñez

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available The eastern boundary of the Chile-Peru Current System constitutes one of the most biologically productive ecosystems in the world, due largely to coastal upwelling and the horizontal advection of nutrients. In this ecosystem, El Niño events are of great importance in the interannual variability of the environment. A change was observed in the environmental regime at the beginning of the 1970s with the onset of the 1972-1973 El Niño, marking an important decrease in the anchovy fishery (Engraulis ringens. After the mid-1970s, sardine (Sardinops sagax landings increased noticeably. A second regime shift at the end of the 1980s was seen mostly in the noticeable recovery of anchovy and the decline of sardine. Herein, we present an integrated conceptual model of the different local and large-scale phenomena that affect the marine environment off northern Chile and the distribution and abundance of pelagic resources. The model considers an analysis of environmental and bio-fishery data on different scales and describes how the interdecadal (associated with re-gime shifts and interannual (associated with El Niño events fluctuations in the Equatorial Pacific are mani-fested in the eastern South Pacific and, therefore, in the northern zone off Chile, affecting the annual eyele, the dynamic of the coastal trapped waves, and coastal upwelling. In this framework, interdecadal fluctuations play an important role in the anchovy-sardine-anchovy replacement sequence.El borde oriental del Sistema de Corrientes de Chile-Perú constituye uno de los ecosistemas de mayor productividad biológica del mundo, debido principalmente a la surgencia costera y advección horizontal de nutrientes. En este ecosistema, los eventos El Niño son de mayor importancia en la variabilidad interanual del ambiente. No obstante, un cambio de régimen ambiental es observado a inicio de los 70's el que hubiera comenzado con El Niño 1972-73 y que marca la gran disminución de la

  11. Risk assessment of precipitation extremes in northern Xinjiang, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Jun; Pei, Ying; Zhang, Yanwei; Ge, Quansheng

    2017-04-01

    This study was conducted using daily precipitation records gathered at 37 meteorological stations in northern Xinjiang, China, from 1961 to 2010. We used the extreme value theory model, generalized extreme value (GEV) and generalized Pareto distribution (GPD), statistical distribution function to fit outputs of precipitation extremes with different return periods to estimate risks of precipitation extremes and diagnose aridity-humidity environmental variation and corresponding spatial patterns in northern Xinjiang. Spatiotemporal patterns of daily maximum precipitation showed that aridity-humidity conditions of northern Xinjiang could be well represented by the return periods of the precipitation data. Indices of daily maximum precipitation were effective in the prediction of floods in the study area. By analyzing future projections of daily maximum precipitation (2, 5, 10, 30, 50, and 100 years), we conclude that the flood risk will gradually increase in northern Xinjiang. GEV extreme value modeling yielded the best results, proving to be extremely valuable. Through example analysis for extreme precipitation models, the GEV statistical model was superior in terms of favorable analog extreme precipitation. The GPD model calculation results reflect annual precipitation. For most of the estimated sites' 2 and 5-year T for precipitation levels, GPD results were slightly greater than GEV results. The study found that extreme precipitation reaching a certain limit value level will cause a flood disaster. Therefore, predicting future extreme precipitation may aid warnings of flood disaster. A suitable policy concerning effective water resource management is thus urgently required.

  12. Risk assessment of precipitation extremes in northern Xinjiang, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Jun; Pei, Ying; Zhang, Yanwei; Ge, Quansheng

    2018-05-01

    This study was conducted using daily precipitation records gathered at 37 meteorological stations in northern Xinjiang, China, from 1961 to 2010. We used the extreme value theory model, generalized extreme value (GEV) and generalized Pareto distribution (GPD), statistical distribution function to fit outputs of precipitation extremes with different return periods to estimate risks of precipitation extremes and diagnose aridity-humidity environmental variation and corresponding spatial patterns in northern Xinjiang. Spatiotemporal patterns of daily maximum precipitation showed that aridity-humidity conditions of northern Xinjiang could be well represented by the return periods of the precipitation data. Indices of daily maximum precipitation were effective in the prediction of floods in the study area. By analyzing future projections of daily maximum precipitation (2, 5, 10, 30, 50, and 100 years), we conclude that the flood risk will gradually increase in northern Xinjiang. GEV extreme value modeling yielded the best results, proving to be extremely valuable. Through example analysis for extreme precipitation models, the GEV statistical model was superior in terms of favorable analog extreme precipitation. The GPD model calculation results reflect annual precipitation. For most of the estimated sites' 2 and 5-year T for precipitation levels, GPD results were slightly greater than GEV results. The study found that extreme precipitation reaching a certain limit value level will cause a flood disaster. Therefore, predicting future extreme precipitation may aid warnings of flood disaster. A suitable policy concerning effective water resource management is thus urgently required.

  13. Participatory Simulation of Land-Use Changes in the Northern Mountains of Vietnam: the Combined Use of an Agent-Based Model, a Role-Playing Game, and a Geographic Information System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jean-Christophe Castella

    2005-06-01

    Full Text Available In Vietnam, the remarkable economic growth that resulted from the doi moi (renovation reforms was based largely on the rural households that had become the new basic unit of agricultural production in the early 1990s. The technical, economic, and social changes that accompanied the decollectivization process transformed agricultural production, resource management, land use, and the institutions that defined access to resources and their distribution. Combined with the extreme biophysical, technical, and social heterogeneity encountered in the northern mountains, these rapid changes led to the extreme complexity of the agrarian dynamics that today challenges traditional diagnostic approaches. Since 1999, a participatory simulation method has been developed to disentangle the cause-and-effect relationships between the different driving forces and changes in land use observed at different scales. Several tools were combined to understand the interactions between human and natural systems, including a narrative conceptual model, an agent-based spatial computational model (ABM, a role-playing game, and a multiscale geographic information system (GIS. We synthesized into an ABM named SAMBA-GIS the knowledge generated from the above tools applied to a representative sample of research sites. The model takes explicitly into account the dynamic interactions among: (1 farmers' strategies, i.e., the individual decision-making process as a function of the farm's resource profile; (2 the institutions that define resource access and usage; and (3 changes in the biophysical and socioeconomic environment. The next step consisted of coupling the ABM with the GIS to extrapolate the application of local management rules to a whole landscape. Simulations are initialized using the layers of the GIS, e.g., land use in 1990, accessibility, soil characteristics, etc., and statistics available at the village level, e.g., population, ethnicity, livestock, etc. At each

  14. Price transmission in the trans-atlantic northern shrimp value chain

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Max; Ankamah-Yeboah, Isaac; Staahl, Lisa

    2018-01-01

    affect northern shrimp fisheries. In this paper, price transmission in the trans-Atlantic northern shrimp value chain is analysed using a Vector Auto Regressive model in Error Correction form. Cointegration, the Law of One Price (LOP) and weak exogeneity are tested. The results reveal linkages from...

  15. Three-dimensional seismo-tectonics in the Po Valley basin, Northern Italy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Turrini, Claudio; Angeloni, Pamela; Lacombe, Olivier; Ponton, Maurizio; Roure, François

    2015-01-01

    The Po Valley (Northern Italy) is a composite foreland-foredeep basin caught in between the Southern Alps and Northern Apennine mountain belts. By integrating the 3D structural model of the region with the public earthquake dataset, the seismo-tectonics of the basin is shown at different scales of

  16. Titan's Stratospheric Condensibles at High Northern Latitudes During Northern Winter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, Carrie; Samuelson, R.; Achterberg, R.

    2012-01-01

    The Infrared Interferometer Spectrometer (IRIS) instrument on board Voyager 1 caught the first glimpse of an unidentified particulate feature in Titan's stratosphere that spectrally peaks at 221 per centimeter. Until recently, this feature that we have termed 'the haystack,' has been seen persistently at high northern latitudes with the Composite Infrared Spectrometer (CIRS) instrument onboard Cassini, The strength of the haystack emission feature diminishes rapidly with season, becoming drastically reduced at high northern latitudes, as Titan transitions from northern winter into spring, In contrast to IRIS whose shortest wavenumber was 200 per centimeter, CIRS extends down to 10 per centimeter, thus revealing an entirely unexplored spectral region in which nitrile ices have numerous broad lattice vibration features, Unlike the haystack, which is only found at high northern latitudes during northern winter/early northern spring, this geometrically thin nitrile cloud pervades Titan's lower stratosphere, spectrally peaking at 160 per centimeter, and is almost global in extent spanning latitudes 85 N to 600 S, The inference of nitrile ices are consistent with the highly restricted altitude ranges over which these features are observed, and appear to be dominated by a mixture of HCN and HC3N, The narrow range in altitude over which the nitrile ices extend is unlike the haystack, whose vertical distribution is significantly broader, spanning roughly 70 kilometers in altitude in Titan's lower stratosphere, The nitrile clouds that CIRS observes are located in a dynamically stable region of Titan's atmosphere, whereas CH4 clouds, which ordinarily form in the troposphere, form in a more dynamically unstable region, where convective cloud systems tend to occur. In the unusual situation where Titan's tropopause cools significantly from the HASI 70.5K temperature minimum, CH4 should condense in Titan's lower stratosphere, just like the aforementioned nitrile clouds, although

  17. Imaging Lithospheric-scale Structure Beneath Northern Altiplano in Southern Peru and Northern Bolivia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, A.; Wagner, L. S.; Beck, S. L.; Zandt, G.; Long, M. D.

    2014-12-01

    The northern Altiplano plateau of southern Peru and northern Bolivia is one of the highest topographic features on the Earth, flanked by Western and Eastern Cordillera along its margin. It has strongly influenced the local and far field lithospheric deformation since the early Miocene (Masek et al., 1994). Previous studies have emphasized the importance of both the crust and upper mantle in the evolution of Altiplano plateau (McQuarrie et al., 2005). Early tomographic and receiver function studies, south of 16° S, show significant variations in the crust and upper mantle properties in both perpendicular and along strike direction of the Altiplano plateau (Dorbath et. al., 1993; Myers et al., 1998; Beck and Zandt, 2002). In order to investigate the nature of subsurface lithospheric structure below the northern Altiplano, between 15-18° S, we have determined three-dimensional seismic tomography models for Vp and Vs using P and S-wave travel time data from two recently deployed local seismic networks of CAUGHT and PULSE. We also used data from 8 stations from the PERUSE network (PERU Subduction Experiment). Our preliminary tomographic models show a complex variation in the upper mantle velocity structure with depth, northwest and southeast of lake Titicaca. We see the following trend, at ~85 km depth, northwest of lake Titicaca: low Vp and Vs beneath the Western Cordillera, high Vs beneath the Altiplano and low Vp and Vs beneath the Eastern Cordillera. This low velocity anomaly, beneath Eastern Cordillera, seems to coincide with Kimsachata, a Holocene volcano in southern Peru. At depth greater than ~85 km: we find high velocity anomaly beneath the Western Cordillera and low Vs beneath the Altiplano. This high velocity anomaly, beneath Western Cordillera, coincides with the well-located Wadati-Benioff zone seismicity and perhaps represents the subducting Nazca slab. On the southeast of lake Titicaca, in northern Bolivia, we see a consistently high velocity anomaly

  18. PREFACE: Northern Eurasia Earth Science Partnership Initiative

    Science.gov (United States)

    Groisman, Pavel; Soja, Amber J.

    2009-12-01

    The Northern Eurasia Earth Science Partnership Initiative (NEESPI) was launched five years ago with the release of its Science Plan (http://neespi.org). Gradually, the Initiative was joined by numerous international projects and launched in the European Union, Russia, United States, Canada, Japan, and China. Currently, serving as an umbrella for more than 130 individual research projects (always with international participation) and with a 15M annual budget, this highly diverse initiative is in full swing. Since the first NEESPI focus issue (Pavel Groisman et al 2007 Environ. Res. Lett. 2 045008 (1pp)) in December 2007, several NEESPI Workshops and Sessions at International Meetings have been held that strengthen the NEESPI grasp on biogeochemical cycle and cryosphere studies, climatic and hydrological modeling, and regional NEESPI components in the Arctic, non- boreal Eastern Europe, Central Asia, northern Siberia, and mountainous regions of the NEESPI domain. In May 2009, an overview NEESPI paper was published in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (BAMS) (Pavel Groisman et al 2009 Bull. Am. Met. Soc. 90 671). This paper also formulated a requirement to the next generation of NEESPI studies to work towards attaining a higher level of integration of observation programs, process studies, and modeling, across disciplines. Three books devoted to studies in different regions of Northern Eurasia prepared by the members of the NEESPI team have appeared and/or are scheduled to appear in 2009. This (second) ERL focus issue dedicated to climatic and environmental studies in Northern Eurasia is composed mostly from the papers that were presented at two NEESPI Open Science Sessions at the Annual Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union (December 2008, San Francisco, CA) and at the General Assembly of the European Geosciences Union (April 2009, Vienna, Austria), as well as at the specialty NEESPI Workshops convened in Jena, Helsinki, Odessa, Urumqi

  19. The outlook for northern forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stephen R. Shifley; W. Keith Moser; Sherri Wormstead; Francisco X. Aguilar

    2016-01-01

    The forests of the Northern United States have been remarkably resilient to nearly four centuries of immigration and settlement with associated anthropogenic disturbances caused by farming, logging, burning, urbanization, trade, and many other factors. Although resilient, forests conditions have been significantly impacted by humans as is illustrated by the extent of...

  20. NUMA: A Northern Paiute History.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Inter-Tribal Council of Nevada, Reno.

    One in a series of four histories of native Nevadans, this volume presents the story of the Northern Paiute people, or Numa, who lived, hunted, and travelled in the Great Basin area which occupies one-third of present day Nevada and parts of Oregon, Idaho, and California. Based on interviews with tribal elders and research conducted at numerous…

  1. Mitigating Radicalism in Northern Nigeria

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-08-01

    protectorates through indigenous rulers—merely institutionalized existing divisions. With the building of infrastructure—such as new railway lines— immigrant ...laborers and traders from the south settled into can- tonments in most major northern cities. The effect of these sabon gari (“ strangers ’ quarters” in

  2. June 1990 Northern, Iran Images

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A magnitude 7.7 earthquake occurred in the Gilan Province between the towns of Rudbar and Manjil in northern Iran on Thursday, June 21, 1990 (June 20 at 21:00 GMT)....

  3. Neuropsychiatric perspectives on nodding syndrome in northern ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    trauma and the emergence of epidemic NS in Northern Uganda. ... NS could present as an association of childhood complex PTSD, (called Developmental Trauma Disorder), occurring in the chronically war-traumatised children of Northern Uganda, ...

  4. Weather Effects on Maize Yields in Northern China

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sun, Baojing; Kooten, van G.C.

    2014-01-01

    In the present study, the effect of weather on maize yields in northern China was examined using data from 10 districts in Inner Mongolia and two in Shaanxi province. A regression model with a flexible functional form was specified on the basis of agronomic considerations. Explanatory variables

  5. Rainfall response to Dam/Irrigation projects in Northern Nigeria ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In this paper, we examine the possibility that the increasing number and size of dam/irrigation projects in northern Nigeria are having a corresponding increase in rainfall in spite of the threat of climate change. We modeled the rainfall trends over 11 meteorological stations over a period of 34 years (1971 - 2004). The trends ...

  6. Temperature variations as evidence of climate change in northern ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The paper seeks to investigate whether evolving temperature patterns over northern Nigeria agree with the projections made by global warming and climate change models. The data used are screen air temperature on a monthly time scale. These data were obtained from the database of the Nigerian Meteorological ...

  7. Rainfall response to dam/irrigation projects in northern Nigeria ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In this paper, we examine the possibility that the increasing number and size of dam/irrigation projects in northern Nigeria are having a corresponding increase in rainfall in spite of the threat of climate change. We modeled the rainfall trends over 11 meteorological stations over a period of 34 years (1971 - 2004). The trends ...

  8. Changes in the trophic structure of the northern Benguela before ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Exploitation of marine resources has been occurring in the northern Benguela ecosystem for centuries. Understanding the cumulative long-term effects of this exploitation is important toward effective management of the modern system. Retrospective mass-balanced models of the ecosystem have been constructed, using ...

  9. The lemmatization of copulatives in northern Sotho | Prinsloo | Lexikos

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The aim of this article is to offer solutions to the lemmatization problems regarding copulatives in Northern Sotho and to propose guiding entries for paper and electronic dictionaries which could serve as models for future dictionaries. It will be illustrated that the maximum utilisation of macrostructural and microstructural ...

  10. Conservation reserve program: benefit for grassland birds in the northern plains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reynolds, R.E.; Shaffer, T.L.; Sauer, J.R.; Peterjohn, B.G.

    1994-01-01

    During the past few decades numbers of some species of upland-nesting birds in North America have declined. Duck species such as mallard (Anas platyrhynchos), northern pintail (A. acuta) and blue-winged teal (A. discors) have declined since the early 1970s and have remained low since 1985 (Caithamer et al. 1993). Some grassland-dependent nonwaterfowl species also have declined since 1966, as indicated by the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) (Robbins et al. 1986). For prairie-nesting ducks, population declines can be attributed mostly to low recruitment, partially as a result of low nest success. Klett et al. (1988) concluded that nest success (probability of ≥1 egg of clutch hatches) in much of the U.S. Prairie Pothole Region was inadequate to maintain populations of the five most common upland-nesting duck species studied, and that predators were the most important cause of nest failure. Over the years, as grassland areas have been converted to cropland, ducks have concentrated their nesting in the remaining areas of available habitat, where predators such as red fox (Vulpes vulpes), striped skunk (Mephitis mephitis) and badger (Taxidea taxus) forage (Cowardin et al. 1983). The reasons for declining populations of grassland nonwaterfowl birds are not clear but the loss of suitable grassland-nesting habitat probably is an important factor. Currently, approximately 95 percent of the land in North Dakota is used for agricultural purposes, of which over 60 percent is used for annual crop production (Haugse 1990). Of the grassland that remains, 95 percent is used for livestock production. This probably had a severe impact on grassland bird species that seek idle grass cover for nesting. The 1985 and 1990 U.S. Farm Bills include provisions under the Food Security Act to fund a cropland-idling program called the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP). Over 36 million acres have been enrolled nationwide in the CRP since 1985 (Osborn 1993), and up to 25 percent of

  11. The Northern Lights Experience - Negotiation strategies

    OpenAIRE

    Smedseng, Nina

    2014-01-01

    With rapidly increasing tourist numbers, the potential in commercialising the Northern Lights has grown immensely over the last few years, and one can only imagine what possibilities the future holds for professional Northern Lights experience providers. One of the biggest challenges of the Northern Lights experiences is how to deal with the natural conditions and constraints of this ever shifting phenomenon. The experience providers cannot guarantee sightings of the Northern Lights eve...

  12. Seismic and Geophysical Characterization of Northern Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-09-01

    SEISMIC AND GEOPHYSICAL CHARACTERIZATION OF NORTHERN ASIA Kevin Mackey1, Hans Hartse2, Kazuya Fujita1, Michael Pasyanos3, and Michael Begnaud2...improve the calibration of northern Asia for nuclear explosion monitoring purposes. This project builds off previous work, and is a cooperative...propagation characteristics in northern Asia . Our work will further improve location and detection and discrimination capabilities, crustal and upper

  13. Impacts of Northern Pike on stocked Rainbow Trout in Pactola Reservoir, South Dakota

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scheibel, Natalie C.; Dembkowski, Daniel J.; Davis, Jacob L.; Chipps, Steven R.

    2016-01-01

    Establishment of nonnative Northern Pike Esox lucius in Pactola Reservoir, South Dakota, has prompted concern among biologists about the influence of this species on the lake’s intensively managed salmonid fisheries. Ancedotal information suggests that catch rates of Rainbow Trout Oncorhynchus mykiss have declined while mean size and abundance of Northern Pike has increased, although quantitative information on diet and growth of the Northern Pike population is lacking. To address potential interactions between Northern Pike and Rainbow Trout, we assessed size-dependent predation by Northern Pike on Rainbow Trout and determined the relative energetic contribution of stocked Rainbow Trout to Northern Pike growth using bioenergetics modeling. Stable isotopes combined with traditional diet analyses revealed that smaller Northern Pike (Trout contributed less than 10% to their annual energy consumption. In contrast, larger Northern Pike (≥600 mm TL) consumed primarily Rainbow Trout, which accounted for 56% of their annual energy consumption. Combining estimates of Northern Pike predation with production costs of catchable-size Rainbow Trout revealed that annual economic losses ranged from US$15,259 to $24,801 per year. Over its lifespan, an age-10 Northern Pike was estimated to consume ~117 Rainbow Trout worth approximately $340. Thus, Northern Pike predation substantially influences salmonid management initiatives and is likely a primary factor contributing to reduced Rainbow Trout abundance and return to anglers in Pactola Reservoir. Strategies for reducing Northern Pike predation on Rainbow Trout include increasing the size of stocked fish or altering the timing and spatial distribution of stocking events.

  14. Offshore northern Europe, the challenges

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bergseth, S.

    1996-01-01

    This paper relates to challenges of the offshore activity in the North Sea. It is appropriate to address these challenges in the context of generating values through efficient management of resources, markets, safety and technology, as the challenges lie therein. The petroleum industry is built to turn natural resources into market value, assuring broad benefits to stake holders and shareholders. In the following, the challenges facing the industry the industry offshore Northern Europe is examined on this background

  15. Royal villas in Northern Europe

    OpenAIRE

    Iversen, Frode

    2009-01-01

    This paper concerns land use and peasant society relating to settlements, power, and state formation in Northern Europe in the period 500–1200 AD, combining archaeological and written evidence in spatial landscape studies. In the mainly rural society in the Middle Ages, political and economic power seems to have been based on control over land, including people, land, and estates. The king and his followers travelled between a limited numbers of royal villas, located in the coastal areas ...

  16. Northern Security and Global Politics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    -unipolar", indicating a period of flux and of declining US unipolar hegemony. Drawing together contributions from key thinkers in the field, Northern Security and Global Politics explores how this situation has affected the Nordic-Baltic area by addressing two broad sets of questions. First, it examines what impact....... This book will be of much interest to students of Nordic and Baltic politics, international security, foreign policy and IR....

  17. Adapting consociation to Northern Ireland

    OpenAIRE

    Coakley, John

    2010-01-01

    This paper looks at the concept of consociational government (or the principle of fully-fledged power sharing) as it has evolved in recent comparative studies of the politics of divided societies. It describes the stages through which this concept moved to the centre of the political agenda in Northern Ireland, based on contributions by policy makers, academics, journalists and others. It reviews the difficult history of efforts to translate this principle into practice, noting the challenge ...

  18. Asset dynamics in Northern Nigeria:

    OpenAIRE

    Dillon, Andrew; Quiñones, Esteban J.

    2010-01-01

    This paper examines household asset dynamics and gender-differentiated asset inequality over a 20-year period (1988–2008) in northern Nigeria. We show that the initial endowments of both household capital and livestock holdings are inconsistent with the poverty trap hypothesis but that tracking rules for households in panel surveys may lead to differences in empirical results on poverty traps. We also investigate whether initial household endowments contributed to gender-differentiated future...

  19. Applying the mental models framework to carbon monoxide risk in northern Mexico Aplicación del enfoque de los modelos mentales al riesgo por monóxido de carbono en el norte de México

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Heather C. Galada

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVES: Low-income residents of northern Mexico rely on unvented heaters during the winter, a practice that puts them at elevated risk for carbon monoxide intoxication. The goal of this study is to develop a communication protocol for carbon monoxide intoxication risks among the primarily low socioeconomic status population of Ciudad Juárez, Chihuahua, Mexico. METHODS: The mental models risk communication approach was used to identify important gaps in public understanding. This approach consists of step-by-step assessment of information needs and effectiveness of risk communication efforts by using interviews and surveys. RESULTS: The mental models process uncovered a key technical misunderstanding, the subject population's belief that carbon monoxide can be seen or smelled, which may result in a risk-prone behavior: failure to use a carbon monoxide detector. A communication protocol was designed to address this and other knowledge gaps, and it produced significant improvements in subjects' knowledge in a pretest/posttest evaluation. CONCLUSIONS: The mental models process was successful in developing a communication instrument capable of improving knowledge in the subject population. Future research needs include assessing the extent to which this instrument succeeds in changing behavior and reducing the risk of carbon monoxide intoxication. Future interventional efforts may focus on encouraging people to use carbon monoxide detectors.OBJETIVOS: Los residentes de bajos ingresos del norte de México dependen durante el invierno de calefactores no ventilados, una práctica que los pone en mayor riesgo de intoxicación por monóxido de carbono. Se elaboró un protocolo de comunicación sobre los riesgos de intoxicación por monóxido de carbono en la población fundamentalmente de bajo nivel socioeconómico de Ciudad Juárez, Chihuahua, México. MÉTODOS: Se utilizó el enfoque de comunicación de riesgos de los modelos mentales para

  20. Chemical pollution of northern seas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Savinova, T.N.

    1991-01-01

    An extensive review is presented on petroleum and chlorinated hydrocarbon pollution in waters and marine organisms of the North Atlantic and of the North, Baltic, Norwegian, and Barents Seas. Data are presented on the bioaccumulation of those pollutants in the organs and tissues of sea birds and of marine biota at various trophic levels. The effects of pollutants on plankton in northern seas are discussed. Factors affecting the bioaccumulation of toxic substances in fish are also examined. It has been discovered that residual quantities of polychlorinated biphenyls, chlorinated pesticides and their metabolites, and petroleum hydrocarbons are present everywhere at all water levels in northern seas. Of particular concern is the fact that maximum concentrations of contaminants have been recorded in the most productive regions, including shelf and estuary zones, the euphotic zone, and areas of upwelling. Both individual toxic substances and their combinations disrupt normal functioning of ecosystems in northern seas, causing a change in the level of primary production and a decline in fish productivity. Pollutant accumulation in commercially valuable organisms represents a serious threat to human health. 424 refs., 13 figs., 15 tabs

  1. Stigma, disclosure, coping, and medication adherence among people living with HIV/AIDS in Northern Tanzania

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lyimo, R.A.; Stutterheim, S.E.; Hospers, H.J.; de Glee, T.; van der Ven, A.; de Bruin, M.

    2014-01-01

    This study examines a proposed theoretical model examining the interrelationships between stigma, disclosure, coping, and medication adherence among 158 HIV-infected patients on antiretroviral therapy (ART) in northern Tanzania. Perceived and self-stigma, voluntary and involuntary disclosure,

  2. Responses of northern forest plants to atmospheric changes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Laine, K.; Huttunen, S.; Kauppi, M.; Ohtonen, R.; Laehdesmaeki, P. [Oulu Univ. (Finland). Dept. of Biology

    1996-12-31

    This research programme has been under way since 1990 to study the long-term synergistic effects of air pollutants and changing climatic conditions on the northern forest ecosystem and to increase the knowledge of climatic change and its consequences for the fragile northern nature. Ecological, physiological, morphological and biochemical methods have been used to study the responses of forest trees, dwarf shrubs, lichens and soil biology to environmental changes. The research programme is divided into four subprojects concentrating on different ecosystem levels. The subprojects are: (1) life, growth and survival strategies of northern dwarf shrubs under the pressure of a changing environment, (2) forest trees under the impact of air pollutants, increasing CO{sub 2} and UV-B, (3) susceptibility of lichens to air pollution and climatic change and (4) impact of elevated atmospheric CO{sub 2} and O{sub 3} on soil biology with special reference to carbon allocation and N fixation in symbiotic systems. This report summarizes the results of short-term experiments which showed many ecological and physiological changes in almost all elements of the northern boreal forests. These species-level measurements focused on the key species of the northern boreal forest, which have been thought to be useful in large-scale ecosystem experiments and modelling. The results will also facilitate the further studies on the patterns of plant species distribution and northern ecosystem function with respect to the environmental parameters that are expected to change along with global change (e.g. temperature, airchemistry, UV-B, snow condition)

  3. The distribution and abundance of chironomids in high-latitude Eurasian lakes with respect to temperature and continentality: development and application of new chironomid-based climate-inference models in northern Russia

    OpenAIRE

    Nazarova, Larisa; Self, A.; Brooks, S.; Birks, H. J. B.; Porinchu, D.; Odland, A.; Yang, H.; Jones, V. J.

    2011-01-01

    The large landmass of northern Russia has the potential to influence global climate through amplification of climate change. Reconstructing the climate in this region over millennial timescales is crucial for understanding the processes that affect the climate system. Chironomids, preserved in lake sediments, have the potential to produce high resolution, low error, quantitative summer air temperature reconstructions. Canonical correspondence analysis (CCA) of modern surface sediments from 10...

  4. Seismic activity prediction using computational intelligence techniques in northern Pakistan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asim, Khawaja M.; Awais, Muhammad; Martínez-Álvarez, F.; Iqbal, Talat

    2017-10-01

    Earthquake prediction study is carried out for the region of northern Pakistan. The prediction methodology includes interdisciplinary interaction of seismology and computational intelligence. Eight seismic parameters are computed based upon the past earthquakes. Predictive ability of these eight seismic parameters is evaluated in terms of information gain, which leads to the selection of six parameters to be used in prediction. Multiple computationally intelligent models have been developed for earthquake prediction using selected seismic parameters. These models include feed-forward neural network, recurrent neural network, random forest, multi layer perceptron, radial basis neural network, and support vector machine. The performance of every prediction model is evaluated and McNemar's statistical test is applied to observe the statistical significance of computational methodologies. Feed-forward neural network shows statistically significant predictions along with accuracy of 75% and positive predictive value of 78% in context of northern Pakistan.

  5. Pteridophyta collected in Northern Nigeria and Northern Cameroon

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jan kornaś

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available 25 species of Pteridophyta were collected in Northern Nigeria (mainly the Lake Chad Basin and the Mandara Mts. and in the neighbouring parts of Cameroon. 11 of them have not been recorded previously from this area: Isoetes schweinfurthii A. Br. in Bak., Selaginella tenerrima A. Br. ex Kuhn, Ophioglossum gomenzianum Welw. ex A. Br., Marsilea coromandeliana Willd., M. distorta A. Br., M. nubica A. Br., M. subterranea Lepr. ex A. Br., Azolla africana Desv., Ceratopteris richardii Brogn., Adiantum capillus-veneris Linn., and Actiniopleris semiflabellata Pic. Ser.

  6. The Northern Manitoba Mining Academy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexandre, Paul

    2017-04-01

    The Northern Manitoba Mining Academy (NMMA, miningacademy.ca) is a new educational institution located in Flin Flon, Manitoba. It is associated with the University College of the North and is specifically intended to serve the needs of the Northern Manitoban communities with regards to job creation by providing training in a variety of mining, construction, and exploration related areas. NMMA's mission is to provide innovative and responsible solutions for the creation of a knowledgeable, skilled, and sustainable workforce within a vibrant, mineral-rich resource industry. It facilitates strategic training initiatives and research activities in order to strengthen the social, economic, and environmental benefits of a robust mining and resources sector. In terms of education, NMMA offers its own programs, mostly short courses in health and safety, courses organized by the University College of the North (wilderness safety, prospecting, and exploration), and courses organized in association with provincial Industries-Based Safety Programs and Associations (a variety of construction-related trades). However, the programming is not limited to those courses already on the syllabus: the Academy operates on open-doors policy and welcomes people with their unique and diverse needs; it prides itself in its ability to tailor or create specific on-demand courses and deliver them locally in the North. The Northern Manitoba Mining Academy also provides access to its world-class facilities for field-based undergraduate courses, as well as graduate students and researchers doing field work. Full sample preparation facilities are offered to students and scientists in all natural and environmental sciences.

  7. Earliest Urbanism in Northern Mesopotamia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Skuldbøl, Tim Boaz Bruun

    fieldwork on the mound of Tell Brak and in its immediate surroundings, as well as the author’s own new comparative ceramic studies, which provide the basis for improvements in chronology of the Late Chalcolithic period in northern Mesopotamia. This extensive empirical material is presented as archaeological...... reports, which are integrated to form Part 1 of the dissertation. In Part 2, a set of theoretical approaches to the rise of cities is considered, in light of the new information from Tell Brak, with a view to suggesting future approaches towards the urbanization process. Total printed: 470 pages incl...

  8. Calculating competition in thinned northern hardwoods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharon A. Winsauer; James A. Mattson

    1992-01-01

    Describes four methods of calculating competition to individual trees and compares their effectiveness in explaining the 3-year growth response of northern hardwoods after various mechanized thinning practices.

  9. Giant Reed Distribution - Northern California [ds333

    Data.gov (United States)

    California Department of Resources — The Arundo Distribution layer is a compilation of Arundo donax observations in northern and central California, obtained from several sources, including Arundo...

  10. The Lemmatization of Copulatives in Northern Sotho *

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D.J. Prinsloo

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available

    Abstract: For learners of Northern Sotho as a second or even foreign language, the copulative system is probably the most complicated grammatical system to master. The encoding needs of such learners, i.e. to find enough information in dictionaries in order to actively use copulatives in speech and writing, are poorly served in currently available dictionaries. The aim of this article is to offer solutions to the lemmatization problems regarding copulatives in Northern Sotho and to propose guiding entries for paper and electronic dictionaries which could serve as models for future dictionaries. It will be illustrated that the maximum utilisation of macrostructural and microstructural strategies as well as the mediostructure is called for in order to reach this objective. Prerequisites will be to reconstruct the entire copulative system in a user-friendly way, to abstract the rules governing the use of copulatives and to isolate the appropriate lemmas. The treatment of copulatives in Northern Sotho dictionaries will also be critically evaluated, especially in terms of frequency of use and target users' needs.

    Keywords: LEXICOGRAPHY, LEMMATIZATION, COPULATIVES, INFORMATION RETRIEVAL, ACCESS STRUCTURE, ELECTRONIC DICTIONARY, MACROSTRUCTURE, MICROSTRUCTURE, CROSS-REFERENCING, MEDIOSTRUCTURE, DICTIONARY, AFRICAN LANGUAGES

    Opsomming: Die lemmatisering van kopulatiewe in Noord-Sotho. Vir aanleerders van Noord-Sotho as tweede of vreemde taal is die kopulatief waarskynlik die mees komplekse grammatiese sisteem om te bemeester. Die enkoderende behoeftes van sulke aanleerders, dit is om genoegsame inligting in woordeboeke te verkry ten einde kopulatiewe in spraak en skrif aktief te kan gebruik, word nie bevredig in beskikbare woordeboeke nie. Die doel van hierdie artikel is om oplossings aan die hand te doen vir die lemmatiseringsprobleme ten opsigte van kopulatiewe in Noord-Sotho en om gidsinskrywings voor te hou wat as modelle kan dien vir

  11. Groundwater management in northern Iraq

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stevanovic, Zoran; Iurkiewicz, Adrian

    2009-03-01

    Groundwater is vital and the sole resource in most of the studied region of northern Iraq. It has a significant role in agriculture, water supply and health, and the elimination of poverty in rural areas. Although Iraq is currently dramatically disturbed by complex political and socio-economic problems, in its northern part, i.e. the Kurdish-inhabited region, fast urbanization and economic expansion are visible everywhere. Monitoring and water management schemes are necessary to prevent aquifer over-exploitation in the region. Artificial recharge with temporary runoff water, construction of subsurface dams and several other aquifer management and regulation measures have been designed, and some implemented, in order to improve the water situation. Recommendations, presented to the local professionals and decision-makers in water management, include creation of Water Master Plans and Water User Associations, synchronization of drilling programmes, rehabilitation of the existing well fields, opening of new well fields, and the incorporation of new spring intakes in some areas with large groundwater reserves, as well as construction of numerous small-scale schemes for initial in situ water treatment where saline groundwater is present.

  12. Changes in active eolian sand at northern Coachella Valley, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katra, Itzhak; Scheidt, Stephen; Lancaster, Nicholas

    2009-04-01

    Climate variability and rapid urbanization have influenced the sand environments in the northern Coachella Valley throughout the late 20th century. This paper addresses changes in the spatial relationships among different sand deposits at northern Coachella Valley between two recent time periods by using satellite data acquired from the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER). The approach employed here, involving multispectral thermal infrared (TIR) data and spectral mixture analysis, has shown that the major sand deposits can be spatially modeled at northern Coachella Valley. The "coarse-grained (quartz-rich) sand" deposit is associated with active eolian sand, and the "mixed sandy soil" and "fine-grained (quartz-rich) sand" deposits are associated with inactive eolian sand. The fractional abundance images showed a significant decrease between 2000 and 2006 in the percentage of active sand in the major depositional area for fluvial sediment, the Whitewater River, but also in two downwind areas: the Whitewater and Willow Hole Reserves. The pattern of the active sand appears to be related to variations in annual precipitation (wet and dry years) and river discharge in the northern Coachella Valley. We suggest here that recent human modifications to the major watercourses that supply sand affect the capability of fluvial deposition areas to restore sediments over time and consequently the responses of the sand transport system to climate change, becoming more sensitive to dry years where areas of active sand may shrink, degrade, and/or stabilize faster. The approach utilized in this study can be advantageous for future monitoring of sand in the northern Coachella Valley for management of these and similar environments.

  13. Environmental overview of geothermal development: northern Nevada

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Slemmons, D.B.; Stroh, J.M.; Whitney, R.A. (eds.)

    1980-08-01

    Regional environmental problems and issues associated with geothermal development in northern Nevada are studied to facilitate environmental assessment of potential geothermal resources. The various issues discussed are: environmental geology, seismicity of northern Nevada, hydrology and water quality, air quality, Nevada ecosystems, noise effects, socio-economic impacts, and cultural resources and archeological values. (MHR)

  14. African Journals Online: Northern Mariana Islands

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    African Journals Online: Northern Mariana Islands. Home > African Journals Online: Northern Mariana Islands. Log in or Register to get access to full text downloads. Username, Password, Remember me, or Register · Browse By Category · Browse Alphabetically · Browse By Country · List All Titles · Free to read Titles This ...

  15. Sowing pregerminated northern red oak acorns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richard M. Godman; Gilbert A. Mattson

    1992-01-01

    Northern red oak is extremely difficult to regenerate, although it has produced good acorn crops nearly half of the last 32 years in northern Wisconsin. Field trials have shown that for successful seeding, you must protect acorns from predation by wildlife and sow them when temperatures are most favorable for germination.

  16. The Alcoholism Situation in a Northern City

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martynov, M. Iu.; Martynova, D. Iu.

    2012-01-01

    Alcohol abuse in Russia has been increasing in recent years, especially in northern regions, as has the incidence of alcohol-related disease rates. A survey was conducted in Surgut (the Khanty-Mansi autonomous okrug) that determined the factors lending to the prevalence of alcohol abuse among the population of the northern city and assessed the…

  17. Commedia dell'arte in northern Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Holm, Bent

    2015-01-01

    a contextulized introduction to commedia dell'arte in Northern European countries in the 17. to 19. centuries: from charlatans to satirical comedians and pantomimes......a contextulized introduction to commedia dell'arte in Northern European countries in the 17. to 19. centuries: from charlatans to satirical comedians and pantomimes...

  18. Northern Security and Global Politics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    -unipolar", indicating a period of flux and of declining US unipolar hegemony. Drawing together contributions from key thinkers in the field, Northern Security and Global Politics explores how this situation has affected the Nordic-Baltic area by addressing two broad sets of questions. First, it examines what impact...... declining unipolarity - with a geopolitical shift to Asia, a reduced role for Europe in United States policy, and a more assertive Russia - will have on regional Nordic-Baltic security. Second, it takes a closer look at how the regional actors respond to these changes in their strategic environment....... This book will be of much interest to students of Nordic and Baltic politics, international security, foreign policy and IR....

  19. Stratospheric influence on Northern Hemisphere winter climate variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ouzeau, Gaelle; Douville, Herve; Saint Martin, David

    2010-05-01

    Despite significant improvements in observing and data assimilation systems, long-range dynamical forecasting remains a difficult challenge for the climate modelling community. The skill of operational seasonal forecasting systems is particularly poor in the northern extratropics where seas surface temperature (SST) has a weaker influence than in the Tropics. It is therefore relevant to look for additional potential sources of long-range climate predictability in the stratosphere using ensembles of global atmospheric simulations. Besides a control experiment where the ARPEGE-Climat model is only driven by SST, parallel simulations have been performed in which an additional control on climate variability has been accounted for through the nudging of the northern extratropical stratosphere towards the ERA40 reanalysis. Though idealized, this original experiment design allows us to compare the relative contribution of the lower and upper boundary forcings on the simulated tropospheric variability. Results show that the stratospheric nudging improves the climatology and interannual variability of the mid-latitude troposphere, especially in winter in the Northern Hemisphere. Major impacts are found in particular on the simulation of the Arctic and North Atlantic oscillations (AO and NAO). Case studies were carried out for the 1976-1977 and 1988-1989 winters, corresponding to extreme phases of the AO. Results confirm the robustness of the positive impact of the nudging, especially for winter 1976-1977 corresponding to relatively weak SST anomalies in the tropical Pacific. A sensitivity study to the model resolution shows that a well-resolved stratosphere is not necessary for the nudging to be efficient. Besides seasonal mean results, analysis of the day-to-day variability in winter allowed us to better understand the stratospheric polar vortex influence on the tropospheric circulation in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes.

  20. Possible future changes in extreme events over Northern Eurasia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monier, Erwan; Sokolov, Andrei; Scott, Jeffery

    2013-04-01

    In this study, we investigate possible future climate change over Northern Eurasia and its impact on extreme events. Northern Eurasia is a major player in the global carbon budget because of boreal forests and peatlands. Circumpolar boreal forests alone contain more than five times the amount of carbon of temperate forests and almost double the amount of carbon of the world's tropical forests. Furthermore, severe permafrost degradation associated with climate change could result in peatlands releasing large amounts of carbon dioxide and methane. Meanwhile, changes in the frequency and magnitude of extreme events, such as extreme precipitation, heat waves or frost days are likely to have substantial impacts on Northern Eurasia ecosystems. For this reason, it is very important to quantify the possible climate change over Northern Eurasia under different emissions scenarios, while accounting for the uncertainty in the climate response and changes in extreme events. For several decades, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change has been investigating uncertainty in climate change using the MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) framework, an integrated assessment model that couples an earth system model of intermediate complexity (with a 2D zonal-mean atmosphere) to a human activity model. In this study, regional change is investigated using the MIT IGSM-CAM framework that links the IGSM to the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Atmosphere Model (CAM). New modules were developed and implemented in CAM to allow climate parameters to be changed to match those of the IGSM. The simulations presented in this paper were carried out for two emission scenarios, a "business as usual" scenario and a 660 ppm of CO2-equivalent stabilization, which are similar to, respectively, the Representative Concentration Pathways RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios. Values of climate sensitivity and net aerosol

  1. Modeling of the pressure propagation due to CO2 injection and the effect of fault permeability in a case study of the Vedsted structure, Northern Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mbia, Ernest Ncha; Frykman, Peter; Nielsen, Carsten M.

    2014-01-01

    Assessing the pressure buildup in CO2 storage sites and especially the vertical propagation is vital for evaluation of site behavior and security. Vedsted structure in the Northern part of Jylland in Denmark consists of 290m thick Gassum Formation at 2100m depth forming the primary reservoir...... and is sealed by the 530m thick Fjerritslev Formation which is mainly shale lithology with very low permeability. Overlying the caprock is a number of formations forming secondary reservoirs and seals including a 420m thick Chalk Group which is overlain by 20–50m Quaternary deposits. Seismic profiling...... of the structure shows the presence of northwest-southeast trending faults of which some originate in the upper layer of the Gassum reservoir and some reach the base Chalk Group layer. Two faults in the upper Gassum reservoir have been interpreted to be connected to the base Chalk Group. In order to evaluate...

  2. Geological evolution of the Neoproterozoic Bemarivo Belt, northern Madagascar

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, Ronald J.; De Waele, B.; Schofield, D.I.; Goodenough, K.M.; Horstwood, M.; Tucker, R.; Bauer, W.; Annells, R.; Howard, K. J.; Walsh, G.; Rabarimanana, M.; Rafahatelo, J.-M.; Ralison, A.V.; Randriamananjara, T.

    2009-01-01

    The broadly east-west trending, Late Neoproterozoic Bemarivo Belt in northern Madagascar has been re-surveyed at 1:100 000 scale as part of a large multi-disciplinary World Bank-sponsored project. The work included acquisition of 14 U-Pb zircon dates and whole-rock major and trace element geochemical data of representative rocks. The belt has previously been modelled as a juvenile Neoproterozoic arc and our findings broadly support that model. The integrated datasets indicate that the Bemarivo Belt is separated by a major ductile shear zone into northern and southern "terranes", each with different lithostratigraphy and ages. However, both formed as Neoproterozoic arc/marginal basin assemblages that were translated southwards over the north-south trending domains of "cratonic" Madagascar, during the main collisional phase of the East African Orogeny at ca. 540 Ma. The older, southern terrane consists of a sequence of high-grade paragneisses (Sahantaha Group), which were derived from a Palaeoproterozoic source and formed a marginal sequence to the Archaean cratons to the south. These rocks are intruded by an extensive suite of arc-generated metamorphosed plutonic rocks, known as the Antsirabe Nord Suite. Four samples from this suite yielded U-Pb SHRIMP ages at ca. 750 Ma. The northern terrane consists of three groups of metamorphosed supracrustal rocks, including a possible Archaean sequence (Betsiaka Group: maximum depositional age approximately 2477 Ma) and two volcano-sedimentary sequences (high-grade Milanoa Group: maximum depositional age approximately 750 Ma; low grade Daraina Group: extrusive age = 720-740 Ma). These supracrustal rocks are intruded by another suite of arc-generated metamorphosed plutonic rocks, known as the Manambato Suite, 4 samples of which gave U-Pb SHRIMP ages between 705 and 718 Ma. Whole-rock geochemical data confirm the calc-alkaline, arc-related nature of the plutonic rocks. The volcanic rocks of the Daraina and Milanoa groups also

  3. Prediction Equations for Spirometry for Children from Northern India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chhabra, Sunil K; Kumar, Rajeev; Mittal, Vikas

    2016-09-08

    To develop prediction equations for spirometry for children from northern India using current international guidelines for standardization. Re-analysis of cross-sectional data from a single school. 670 normal children (age 6-17 y; 365 boys) of northern Indian parentage. After screening for normal health, we carried out spirometry with recommended quality assurance according to current guidelines. We developed linear and nonlinear prediction equations using multiple regression analysis. We selected the final models on the basis of the highest coefficient of multiple determination (R2) and statistical validity. Spirometry parameters: FVC, FEV1, PEFR, FEF50, FEF75 and FEF25-75. The equations for the main parameters were as follows: Boys, Ln FVC = -1.687+0.016*height +0.022*age; Ln FEV1 = -1.748+0.015*height+0.031*age. Girls, Ln FVC = -9.989 +(2.018*Ln(height)) + (0.324*Ln(age)); Ln FEV1 = -10.055 +(1.990*Ln(height))+(0.358*Ln(age)). Nonlinear regression yielded substantially greater R2 values compared to linear models except for FEF50 for girls. Height and age were found to be the significant explanatory variables for all parameters on multiple regression with weight making no significant contribution. We developed prediction equations for spirometry for children from northern India. Nonlinear equations were superior to linear equations.

  4. Correlation of Crustal Structures and Seismicity Patterns in Northern Appalachians

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, X.; Gao, H.

    2017-12-01

    The earthquake distributions in northern Appalachians are bounded by major geologically-defined terrane boundaries. There is a distinct seismic gap within Taconic Belt between the Western Quebec Seismic Zone (WQSZ) to the west and the seismically active Ganderia terrane to the east. It is not clear, however, what crustal structures control the characteristics of earthquake clustering in this region. Here we present a newly constructed crustal shear velocity model for the northern Appalachians using Rayleigh wave data extracted from ambient noises. Our tomographic model reveals strongly heterogeneous seismic structures in the crust. We observe multiple NW-dipping patches of high-velocity anomalies in the upper crust beneath the southeastern WQSZ. The upper crust shear velocities in the Ganderia and Avalonia region are generally lower than those beneath the WQSZ. The middle crust has relatively lower velocities in the study area. The earthquakes in the study area are constrained within the upper crust. Most of the earthquake hypocenters within the WQSZ are concentrated along the NW-dipping boundaries separating the high-velocity anomalies. In contrast, most of the earthquake hypocenters in the Ganderia and Avalonia region are diffusely distributed without clear vertical lineaments. The orientations of maximum compressive stresses change from W-E in the Ganderia and Avalonia region to SW-NE in the WQSZ. The contrasts in seismicity, velocity, and stress field across the Taconic Belt indicate that the Taconic Belt terrane may act as a seismically inactive buffer zone in northern Appalachians.

  5. Future distribution of tundra refugia in northern Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hope, Andrew G.; Waltari, Eric; Payer, David C.; Cook, Joseph A.; Talbot, Sandra L.

    2013-01-01

    Climate change in the Arctic is a growing concern for natural resource conservation and management as a result of accelerated warming and associated shifts in the distribution and abundance of northern species. We introduce a predictive framework for assessing the future extent of Arctic tundra and boreal biomes in northern Alaska. We use geo-referenced museum specimens to predict the velocity of distributional change into the next century and compare predicted tundra refugial areas with current land-use. The reliability of predicted distributions, including differences between fundamental and realized niches, for two groups of species is strengthened by fossils and genetic signatures of demographic shifts. Evolutionary responses to environmental change through the late Quaternary are generally consistent with past distribution models. Predicted future refugia overlap managed areas and indicate potential hotspots for tundra diversity. To effectively assess future refugia, variable responses among closely related species to climate change warrants careful consideration of both evolutionary and ecological histories.

  6. Northern Ireland in Transition: The Role of Justice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christian Mailhes

    2005-03-01

    Full Text Available All post-conflict societies switching to constitutional liberal democracies have to deal with their past through transitional justice mechanisms that offer to hear the victims, try the perpetrators of all types of abuses, introduce peace and reconciliation schemes. It is time for state and non-state organs to account for past crimes. Several countries have successfully tested such mechanisms. Northern Ireland is the ideal ground for transitional justice to operate but it dispels foreign tailor-made models. Howe