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Sample records for models northern pintail

  1. A model of the productivity of the northern pintail

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carlson, J.D.; Clark, W.R.; Klaas, E.E.

    1993-01-01

    We adapted a stochastic computer model to simulate productivity of the northern pintail (Anas acuta). Researchers at the Northern Prairie Wildlife Research Center of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service originally developed the model to simulate productivity of the mallard (A. platyrhynchos). We obtained data and descriptive information on the breeding biology of pintails from a literature review and from discussions with waterfowl biologists. All biological parameters in the productivity component of the mallard model (e.g, initial body weights, weight loss during laying and incubation, incubation time, clutch size, nest site selection characteristics) were compared with data on pintails and adjusted accordingly. The function in the mallard model that predicts nest initiation in response to pond conditions adequately mimicked pintail behavior and did not require adjustment.Recruitment rate was most sensitive to variations in parameters that control nest success, seasonal duckling survival rate, and yearling and adult body weight. We simulated upland and wetland habitat conditions in central North Dakota and compared simulation results with observed data. Simulated numbers were not significantly different from observed numbers of successful nests during wet, average, and dry wetland conditions. The simulated effect of predator barrier fencing in a study area in central North Dakota increased recruitment rate by an average of 18.4%. This modeling synthesized existing knowledge on the breeding biology of the northern pintail, identified necessary research, and furnished a useful tool for the examination and comparison of various management options.

  2. Northern Pintail Telemetry [ds231

    Data.gov (United States)

    California Department of Resources — Using radio-telemetry, female northern pintail (Anas acuta) survival, distribution, and movements during late August-March in Central California were determined...

  3. Northern Pintail - Flight Path Telemetry [ds117

    Data.gov (United States)

    California Department of Resources — North-south flight paths of radio-tagged female northern pintails were monitored in a section of Highway 152 near Los Banos, California during 4 and 11 November and...

  4. A modeling framework for integrated harvest and habitat management of North American waterfowl: Case-study of northern pintail metapopulation dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mattsson, Brady J.; Runge, M.C.; Devries, J.H.; Boomer, G.S.; Eadie, J.M.; Haukos, D.A.; Fleskes, J.P.; Koons, D.N.; Thogmartin, W.E.; Clark, R.G.

    2012-01-01

    We developed and evaluated the performance of a metapopulation model enabling managers to examine, for the first time, the consequences of alternative management strategies involving habitat conditions and hunting on both harvest opportunity and carrying capacity (i.e., equilibrium population size in the absence of harvest) for migratory waterfowl at a continental scale. Our focus is on the northern pintail (Anas acuta; hereafter, pintail), which serves as a useful model species to examine the potential for integrating waterfowl harvest and habitat management in North America. We developed submodel structure capturing important processes for pintail populations during breeding, fall migration, winter, and spring migration while encompassing spatial structure representing three core breeding areas and two core nonbreeding areas. A number of continental-scale predictions from our baseline parameterization (e.g., carrying capacity of 5.5 million, equilibrium population size of 2.9 million and harvest rate of 12% at maximum sustained yield [MSY]) were within 10% of those from the pintail harvest strategy under current use by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. To begin investigating the interaction of harvest and habitat management, we examined equilibrium population conditions for pintail at the continental scale across a range of harvest rates while perturbing model parameters to represent: (1) a 10% increase in breeding habitat quality in the Prairie Pothole population (PR); and (2) a 10% increase in nonbreeding habitat quantity along in the Gulf Coast (GC). Based on our model and analysis, a greater increase in carrying capacity and sustainable harvest was seen when increasing a proxy for habitat quality in the Prairie Pothole population. This finding and underlying assumptions must be critically evaluated, however, before specific management recommendations can be made. To make such recommendations, we require (1) extended, refined submodels with additional

  5. Evidence that dorsally mounted satellite transmitters affect migration chronology of Northern Pintails

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hupp, Jerry; Kharitonov, Sergei; Yamaguchi, Noriyuki M.; Ozaki, K.; Flint, Paul L.; Pearce, John M.; Tokita, Ken-ichi; Shimada, Tetsuo; Higuchi, Hiroyoshi

    2015-01-01

    We compared migration movements and chronology between Northern Pintails (Anas acuta) marked with dorsally mounted satellite transmitters and pintails marked only with tarsus rings. During weekly intervals of spring and autumn migration between their wintering area in Japan and nesting areas in Russia, the mean distance that ringed pintails had migrated was up to 1000 km farther than the mean distance radiomarked pintails migrated. Radiomarked pintails were detected at spring migration sites on average 9.9 days (90 % CI 8.0, 11.8) later than ringed pintails that were recovered within 50 km. Although ringed and radiomarked pintails departed from Japan on similar dates, the disparity in detection of radiomarked versus ringed pintails at shared sites increased 7.7 days (90 % CI 5.2, 10.2) for each 1000 km increase in distance from Japan. Thus, pintails marked with satellite transmitters arrived at nesting areas that were 2500 km from Japan on average 19 days later than ringed birds. Radiomarked pintails were detected at autumn migration stopovers on average 13.1 days (90 % CI 9.8, 16.4) later than ringed birds that were recovered within 50 km. We hypothesize that dorsal attachment of 12–20 g satellite transmitters to Northern Pintails increased the energetic cost of flight, which resulted in more rapid depletion of energetic reserves and shortened the distance pintails could fly without refueling. Radiomarked pintails may have used more stopovers or spent longer periods at stopovers. causing their migration schedule to diverge from ringed pintails. We urge further evaluation of the effects of dorsally mounted transmitters on migration chronology of waterfowl.

  6. Habitat use and movement patterns of Northern Pintails during spring in northern Japan: the importance of agricultural lands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamaguchi, Noriyuki M.; Hupp, Jerry W.; Flint, Paul L.; Pearce, John M.; Shigeta, Yusuke; Shimada, Tetsuo; Hiraoka, Emiko N.; Higuchi, Hiroyoshi

    2012-01-01

    From 2006 to 2009, we marked 198 Northern Pintails (Anas acuta) with satellite transmitters on their wintering areas in Japan to study their migration routes and habitat use in spring staging areas. We hypothesized that the distribution of pintails during spring staging was influenced by patterns of land use and expected that the most frequently used areas would have more agricultural habitat than lesser-used areas. We obtained 3031 daily locations from 163 migrant pintails marked with satellite transmitters and identified 524 stopover sites. Based on a fixed kernel home range analysis of stopover utilization distribution (UD), core staging areas (areas within the 50% UD) were identified in northern Honshu and western Hokkaido, and were used by 71% of marked pintails. Core staging areas had a greater proportion of rice fields than peripheral (51–95% UD) and rarely used (outside the 95% UD) staging areas. Stopover sites also contained more rice fields and other agricultural land than were available at regional scales, indicating that pintails selected rice and other agricultural habitats at regional and local scales. Pintails remained at spring staging areas an average of 51 d. Prolonged staging in agricultural habitats of northern Japan was likely necessary for pintails to prepare for transoceanic migration to Arctic nesting areas in eastern Russia.

  7. Spring-migration ecology of Northern Pintails in south-central Nebraska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pearse, Aaron T.; Krapu, Gary L.; Cox, Robert R.; Davis, Bruce E.

    2011-01-01

    Spring-migration ecology of staging Northern Pintails, Anas acuta, was investigated in south-central Nebraska, USA. Habitat associations, local movements, settling patterns, arrival dates, residency times and survival were estimated from 71 radiomarked pintails during spring 2001, 2003 and 2004, and diet determined from 130 females collected during spring 1998 and 1999. Seventy-two percent of pintail diurnal locations were in palustrine wetlands, 7% in riverine wetlands, 3% in lacustrine wetlands, 6% in municipal sewage lagoons and irrigation reuse pits and 10.5% in croplands. Emergent wetlands with hemi-marsh conditions were used diurnally more often than wetlands with either open or closed vegetation structures. Evening foraging flights averaged 4.3 km (SE = 0.6) and 72% were to cornfields. In accord with these findings, 87% of 93 pintails collected during spring 1998 and 1999 returning to evening roosts consumed corn, which represented 84% dry mass of all foods. Pintails collected on non-cropped wetlands ingested invertebrates and seeds from wetland plants more frequently than birds returning to roost. Radiomarked pintails arrived in Nebraska on 7 March 2003 and 18 February 2004; average arrival date was six days earlier during 2004 compared to 2003. Residency time for individuals varied greatly (1–40 days) yet yearly means were similar and averaged 9.5 days within the region. No mortality was detected for 71 birds monitored over 829 exposure days. Conservation planners linking population dynamics and habitat conditions at spring-staging areas need to focus on pintail body condition during spring and its connection with reproductive success and survival during the breeding season.

  8. Fall and winter foods of northern pintails in the Sacramento Valley, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Michael R.

    1987-01-01

    Food habits of northern pintails (Anas acuta) were investigated on 3 national wildlife refuges in the western portion of the Sacramento Valley, California, from August to March 1979-82. Pintails consumed 97% (aggregate % dry wt) plant food during diurnal foraging on national wildlife refuge rice, summer-irrigated, and summer-dry habitats from August through January. Invertebrate use increased to 28.9-65.6% of the diet in these habitats during February and March. Rice, swamp timothy (Heleochloa schoenoides), flatsedges (Cyperus spp.), common barnyardgrass (Echinochloa crusgalli), southern naiad (Najas guadalupensis), and smartweed (Polygonum spp.) seeds, miscellaneous vegetation, snails (Gastropoda), and midge (Diptera) and water beetle (Coleoptera) larvae were most important. These foods usually were taken proportional to or greater than availability. Rice was the most important food of pintails feeding nocturnally off the refuges in harvested rice fields from October through January (99.7%) and February and March (63%; barnyardgrass formed 31% of the diet). In August and October, some pintails consumed invertebrates or bulrush (Scirpus spp. ) seedlings in marshes soon after feeding in refuge rice (Aug) or harvested commercial rice fields (Oct), thereby increasing dietary protein. In late winter, females and males obtained similar (P > 0.05) percentages of invertebrates from refuge habitats. Important dietary seeds and invertebrates contained high protein or metabolizable energy content. Management should maintain adequate seed production in fall and mid-winter and invertebrate biomass in late winter.

  9. Survival of northern pintails banded during winter in North America, 1950-88

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hestbeck, J.B.

    1993-01-01

    From 1950 through 1988, the continental breeding population of northern pintails (Anas acuta) varied from 2.0 million to 9.9 million. Because pintails have high fidelity to certain wintering grounds along coasts and large bodies of water, management on these wintering areas may increase population size if changes in winter survival rate are related to changes in population size. I used band-recovery data to estimate survival rates for winter-banded pintails and to test for sex-specific, temporal, and geographic variation in survival rates. Survival rate estimates varied between 0.632 and 0.806 for males, and 0.421 and 0.769 for females. Males had higher (P lt 0.0001) average annual survival rates than females. Limited geographic variation occurred in estimates of average annual survival rates for males, and no variation occurred for females. Males had lower average annual survival rates in the Imperial Valley than in central California (P = 0.007) or in the Gulf Coast (P = 0.092). Little annual variation was found within time periods. However, longer-term variation was found in survival rate estimates for males and females. Males had higher (P = 0.054) average annual survival rates in the Pacific Flyway during 1959-61, a period of drought, breeding-population decline, and restrictive hunting regulations, than during 1950-58, a period with a higher breeding population and liberal regulations. The increase in wintering population size in the Pacific Flyway during the 1970's was associated with a higher average annual survival rate for females in the Pacific Flyway than during the 1950's. Results from the Pacific Flyway suggested that an interaction may exist between population size and the effect of harvest regulations on survival of males. Changes in harvest regulations appeared to have a greater effect at lower population levels.

  10. Antibodies to H5 subtype avian influenza virus and Japanese encephalitis virus in northern pintails (Anas acuta) sampled in Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blood samples from 105 northern pintails (Anas acuta) captured on Hokkaido, Japan were tested for antibodies to avian influenza virus (AIV), Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) and West Nile virus (WNV) to assess possible involvement of this species in the transmission and spread of economically impor...

  11. Shot Ingestion by Wintering Female Northern Pintails (Anas acuta) in the Texas Coastal Plain, 2012-14.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huck, Nathaniel R; Ballard, Bart M; Fedynich, Alan M; Kraai, Kevin J; Castro, Mauro E

    2016-01-01

    Historically, lead poisoning through lead shot ingestion was one of the largest health issues affecting waterfowl in North America. Lead shot was banned for use in waterfowl hunting in the US in 1991 and was banned in Canada in 1997. However, biologists need to understand how, and if, lead shot remaining in the environment will continue to impact waterfowl. Our goal was to estimate lead and nontoxic shot consumption by female Northern Pintails (Anas acuta) wintering along the Texas coast. We found shot or metal fragments (or both) in the gizzards of 39 (17%) of 227 female Northern Pintails collected along the Texas coast. Of these, lead shot was found in seven gizzards, steel shot was found in 24 gizzards, and other metal and fragments were found in 20 gizzards. Some females consumed multiple shot types. Overall, shot (lead and nontoxic combined) ingestion rates were similar to those found prior to the lead shot ban in Texas (14%) and Louisiana (17%); however, lead shot ingestion rates were considerably lower, suggesting that it is becoming less available over time. All Northern Pintails that had lead shot in their gizzards were collected from coastal habitats. While it seems that lead shot ingestion by Northern Pintails has decreased since the ban was put in place, monitoring lead shot ingestion rates from different regions will provide insight into its availability in different habitats and under various environmental conditions.

  12. Antibodies to H5 subtype avian influenza virus and Japanese encephalitis virus in northern pintails (Anas acuta) sampled in Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramey, Andy M.; Spackman, Erica; Yeh, Jung-Yong; Fujita, Go; Konishi, Kan; Reed, John A.; Wilcox, Benjamin R.; Brown, Justin D.; Stallknecht, David E.

    2013-01-01

    Blood samples from 105 northern pintails (Anas acuta) captured on Hokkaido, Japan were tested for antibodies to avian influenza virus (AIV), Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV), and West Nile virus (WNV) to assess possible involvement of this species in the spread of economically important and potentially zoonotic pathogens. Antibodies to AIV were detected in 64 of 105 samples (61%). Of the 64 positives, 95% and 81% inhibited agglutination of two different H5 AIV antigens (H5N1 and H5N9), respectively. Antibodies to JEV and WNV were detected in five (5%) and none of the samples, respectively. Results provide evidence for prior exposure of migrating northern pintails to H5 AIV which couldhave implications for viral shedding and disease occurrence. Results also provide evidence for limited involvement of this species in the transmission and spread of flaviviruses during spring migration.

  13. Evidence for intercontinental parasite exchange through molecular detection and characterization of haematozoa in northern pintails (Anas acuta) sampled throughout the North Pacific Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramey, Andy M.; Schmutz, Joel A.; Reed, John A.; Fujita, Go; Scotton, Bradley D.; Casler, Bruce; Fleskes, Joseph P.; Konishi, Kan; Uchida, Kiyoshi; Yabsley, Michael J.

    2015-01-01

    Empirical evidence supports wild birds as playing a role in the interhemispheric exchange of bacteria and viruses; however, data supporting the redistribution of parasites among continents are limited. In this study, the hypothesis that migratory birds contribute to the redistribution of parasites between continents was tested by sampling northern pintails (Anas acuta) at locations throughout the North Pacific Basin in North America and East Asia for haemosporidian infections and assessing the genetic evidence for parasite exchange. Of 878 samples collected from birds in Alaska (USA), California (USA), and Hokkaido (Japan) during August 2011 - May 2012 and screened for parasitic infections using molecular techniques, Leucocytozoon, Haemoproteus, and Plasmodium parasites were detected in 555 (63%), 44 (5%), and 52 (6%) samples, respectively. Using an occupancy modeling approach, the probability of detecting parasites via replicate genetic tests was estimated to be high (p ≥ 0.95). Multi-model inference supported variation of Leucocytozoon parasite prevalence by northern pintail age class and geographic location of sampling in contrast to Haemoproteus and Plasmodium parasites for which there was only support for variation in parasite prevalence by sampling location. Thirty-one unique mitochondrial DNA haplotypes were detected among haematozoa infecting northern pintails including seven lineages shared between samples from North America and Japan. The finding of identical parasite haplotypes at widely distributed geographic locations and general lack of genetic structuring by continent in phylogenies for Leucocytozoon and Plasmodium provides evidence for intercontinental genetic exchange of haemosporidian parasites. Results suggest that migratory birds, including waterfowl, could therefore facilitate the introduction of avian malaria and other haemosporidia to novel hosts and spatially distant regions.

  14. Breeding-season sympatry facilitates genetic exchange among allopatric wintering populations of Northern Pintails in Japan and California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flint, P.L.; Ozaki, K.; Pearce, J.M.; Guzzetti, B.; Higuchi, H.; Fleskes, J.P.; Shimada, T.; Derksen, D.V.

    2009-01-01

    The global redistribution of pathogens, such as highly pathogenic avian influenza, has renewed interest in the connectivity of continental populations of birds. Populations of the Northern Pintail (Anas acuta) wintering in Japan and California are considered separate from a management perspective. We used data from band recoveries and population genetics to assess the degree of biological independence of these wintering populations. Distributions of recoveries in Russia of Northern Pintails originally banded during winter in North America overlapped with distributions of Northern Pintails banded during winter in Japan. Thus these allopatric wintering populations are partially sympatric during the breeding season. The primary areas of overlap were along the Chukotka and Kamchatka peninsulas in Russia. Furthermore, band recoveries demonstrated dispersal of individuals between wintering populations both from North America to Japan and vice versa. Genetic analyses of samples from both wintering populations showed little evidence of population differentiation. The combination of banding and genetic markers demonstrates that these two continental populations are linked by low levels of dispersal as well as likely interbreeding in eastern Russia. Although the levels of dispersal are inconsequential for population dynamics, the combination of dispersal and interbreeding represents a viable pathway for exchange of genes, diseases, and/or parasites. ?? The Cooper Ornithological Society 2009.

  15. Characterization of northern pintail (Anas acuta) ejaculate and the effect of sperm preservation on fertility.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Penfold, L M; Harnal, V; Lynch, W; Bird, D; Derrickson, S R; Wildt, D E

    2001-02-01

    Northern pintail duck semen and sperm traits were characterized, and the fertility of cold-stored spermatozoa was investigated using artificial insemination. Excellent quality ejaculates containing high proportions of motile spermatozoa were collected from drakes within 20 s by a massage technique. Semen was collected in Beltsville poultry semen extender, pooled and cold-stored (4 degrees C) for 0, 24, 48 or 72 h. Hens were inseminated with 100 microl twice a week, and eggs were assessed for fertilization and hatch success. Fertilization success was similar (P > 0.05) for semen cold-stored for 0 (51.6%), 24 (51.5%), 48 (41.1%) and 72 h (22.3%; P > 0.05). Similar (P > 0.05) percentages of fertilized eggs hatched to live offspring (73.1, 71.4, 87.0 and 80.0%, respectively). Fresh semen was also equilibrated with 1 or 4% dimethylsulphoxide or glycerol, and cryopreserved at the following rates: (1) approximately 60 degrees C min(-1) (in liquid nitrogen [LN(2)] vapour) for 10 min; (2) 1 degrees C min(-1) to -20 degrees C, LN(2) vapour for 10 min; and (3) 1 degrees C min(-1) to -35 degrees C, all followed by immersion in LN(2). After thawing for 30 s at 37 degrees C or 20 min at 4 degrees C, sperm motility and viability were assessed. The highest numbers of motile spermatozoa were recovered after slow-fast freezing (2) and thawing at 0 degrees C (P artificial insemination. Nonetheless, cold storage provides an effective means of short-term storage with no loss of fertility in this waterfowl species.

  16. Evaluation of blood and muscle tissues for molecular detection and characterization of hematozoa infections in northern pintails (Anas acuta) wintering in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramey, Andy M.; Schmutz, Joel A.; Fleskes, Joseph P.; Yabsley, Michael J.

    2013-01-01

    Information on the molecular detection of hematozoa from different tissue types and multiple years would be useful to inform sample collection efforts and interpret results of meta-analyses or investigations spanning multiple seasons. In this study, we tested blood and muscle tissue collected from northern pintails (Anas acuta) during autumn and winter of different years to evaluate prevalence and genetic diversity ofLeucocytozoon, Haemoproteus, and Plasmodium infections in this abundant waterfowl species of the Central Valley of California. We first compared results for paired blood and wing muscle samples to assess the utility of different tissue types for molecular investigations of haemosporidian parasites. Second, we explored inter-annual variability of hematozoa infection in Central Valley northern pintails and investigated possible effects of age, sex, and sub-region of sample collection on estimated parasite detection probability and prevalence. We found limited evidence for differences between tissue types in detection probability and prevalence ofLeucocytozoon, Haemoproteus, and Plasmodium parasites, which supports the utility of both sample types for obtaining information on hematozoan infections. However, we detected 11 haemosporidian mtDNA cyt bhaplotypes in blood samples vs. six in wing muscle tissue collected during the same sample year suggesting an advantage to using blood samples for investigations of genetic diversity. Estimated prevalence ofLeucocytozoon parasites was greater during 2006–2007 as compared to 2011–2012 and four unique haemosporidian mtDNA cyt b haplotypes were detected in the former sample year but not in the latter. Seven of 15 mtDNA cyt b haplotypes detected in northern pintails had 100% identity with previously reported hematozoa lineages detected in waterfowl (Haemoproteus and Leucocytozoon) or other avian taxa (Plasmodium) providing support for lack of host specificity for some parasite lineages.

  17. Pintail ducks tread the waters of KSC

    Science.gov (United States)

    1999-01-01

    Male (foreground) and female pintail ducks climb onto a grassy spot in the waters of the Merritt Island National Wildlife Refuge at Kennedy Space Center. The pintails can be found in the marshes, prairie ponds and tundra of Alaska, Greenland and north and western United States; in the winter they range south and east to Central America and the West Indies, sometimes in salt marshes such as the refuge offers. The open water of the refuge provides wintering areas for 23 species of migratory waterfowl, as well as a year-round home for great blue herons, great egrets, wood storks, cormorants, brown pelicans and other species of marsh and shore birds. The 92,000-acre refuge is also habitat for more than 310 species of birds, 25 mammals, 117 fishes and 65 amphibians and reptiles.

  18. Spatial modeling of the geographic distribution of wildlife populations: A case study in the lower Mississippi River region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ji, W.; Jeske, C.

    2000-01-01

    A geographic information system (GIS)-based spatial modeling approach was developed to study environmental and land use impacts on the geographic distribution of wintering northern pintails (Arias acuta) in the Lower Mississippi River region. Pintails were fitted with backpack radio transmitter packages at Catahoula Lake, LA, in October 1992-1994 and located weekly through the following March. Pintail survey data were converted into a digital database in ARC/INFO GIS format and integrated with environmental GIS data through a customized modeling interface. The study verified the relationship between pintail distributions and major environmental factors and developed a conceptual relation model. Visualization-based spatial simulations were used to display the movement patterns of specific population groups under spatial and temporal constraints. The spatial modeling helped understand the seasonal movement patterns of pintails in relation to their habitat usage in Arkansas and southwestern Louisiana for wintering and interchange situations among population groups wintering in Texas and southeastern Louisiana. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V.

  19. A pintail duck swims in the water at KSC

    Science.gov (United States)

    1999-01-01

    A pintail duck swims calmly in the waters of the Merritt Island National Wildlife Refuge, which shares a boundary with the space center. The pintail can be found in marshes, prairie ponds and tundra, and salt marshes in winter. They range from Alaska and Greenland south to Central America and the West Indies. The open waters of the Wildlife Refuge provide wintering areas for 23 species of migratory waterfowl as well as a year-round home for great blue herons, great egrets, wood storks, cormorants, brown pelicans and other species of marsh and shore birds. The refuge comprises 92,000 acres, ranging from fresh-water impoundments, salt-water estuaries and brackish marshes to hardwood hammocks and pine flatwoods. The diverse landscape provides habitat for more than 310 species of birds, 25 mammals, 117 fishes, and 65 amphibians and reptiles, including such endangered species as Southern bald eagles, wood storks, Florida scrub jays, Atlantic loggerhead and leatherback turtles, osprey, and nearly 5,000 alligators.

  20. Determination of toxaphene in pintail tissues from Lake Hyoko, Japan

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Takazawa, Yoshikatsu; Kitamura, Kimiyoshi; Shibata, Yasuyuki; Morita, Masatoshi [National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba (Japan); Yoshikane, Mitsuha [Environmental Research Center, Tsukuba (Japan); Fujimori, Fumio [Yamashina Institute for Ornithology, Abiko (Japan)

    2004-09-15

    An international convention aiming to restrict persistent organic pollutants (POPs) was formally adopted in May 2001; global actions to reduce and eliminate releases of the pollutants have been recommended. As we know, the compounds as the dirty dozen have already provided strong impact for wildlife and human beings. Although a large number of studies have been made on POP contamination in Japanese environments, little is known about toxaphene levels. Probably, the situation is derived from the fact that the compound has never been used in Japan. So far as atmospheric transport of POPs is concerned, toxaphene may also distribute in Japanese biota. In January 2003, we carried out a sampling survey of pintails at Lake Hyoko, Niigata, Japan. Concentrations of toxaphene were determined by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS) based on electron capture negative ionization (ECNI). The concentration levels among fat, breast muscles, and livers were discussed from the obtained data.

  1. First record of an aberrantly colored Pin-tailed Sandgrouse (Pterocles alchata)

    OpenAIRE

    Benítez-López, Ana; García-Egea, Iván

    2015-01-01

    The distribution and frequency of color aberrations in wild birds is relatively poorly known. Here we report, for the first time, the observation of an aberrantly colored Pin-tailed Sandgrouse (Pterocles alchata), a threatened steppe bird with cryptic plumage and behavior. The bird displayed a continuous white patch on its back that was not bilaterally symmetrical (i.e., not far from the neural crest), thus discarding leucism as an explanation. Plausible explanations are progressive graying a...

  2. Northern Ireland: post-conflict education model?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul Nolan

    2006-07-01

    Full Text Available Northern Ireland’s Good Friday Agreement of 1998 calledfor “initiatives to facilitate and encourage integratededucation” but progress has been painfully slow. Only 5%of the total school population are in integrated schools(those bringing together students and staff from boththe Protestant and Catholic traditions. Only 1.4% of theadult population has experienced integrated schooling.

  3. Northern Gulf Coast Digital Elevation Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — NOAA's National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) is building high-resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) for select U.S. coastal regions in the Gulf of Mexico....

  4. Patronymic Models in Northern Russian Subdialects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Irina B. Kachinskaya

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available A patronymic is part of every Russian person’s name derived from the full name of its bearer’s father. In subdialects, the patronymic can be coined not only from the full father’s name, but also from its diminutive based on different word-formation models. Besides, the article considers the aforementioned parts of names formed from the bearer’s grandfather’s and mother’s names, and women’s names made on the basis of their husbands’ names. Finally, patronymics can be based on nicknames, categorized into personal nicknames, patronymical nicknames and the ones connected with close relatives.

  5. Factors favouring large organic production in the northern Adriatic: towards the northern Adriatic empirical ecological model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Kraus

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Influenced by one of the largest Mediterranean rivers, Po, the northern Adriatic production is highly variable seasonally and interannually. The changes are especially pronounced between winters and seemingly reflect on total Adriatic bioproduction of certain species (anchovy. We analysed the long-term changes in the phytoplankton production at the transect in the region, as derived from monthly oceanographic cruises, in relation to concomitant geostrophic currents distribution in the area and in the Po River discharge rates in days preceding the cruises. In winter and early spring the phyto-abundances depended on existing circulation fields, in summer and autumn they were related to 1–15 days earlier Po River discharge rates and on concomitant circulation fields, while in late spring phyto-abundances increased 1–3 days after high Po River discharge rates regardless of circulation fields. During the entire year the phyto-abundances were dependant on forcing of the previous 1–12 months of surface fluxes and/or Po River rates. Large February blooms are, as well as February circulation patterns, precondited by low evaporation rates in previous November. From 1990 to 2004 a shift towards large winter bioproduction induced by circulation changes appeared. Performed investigations represent the preliminary actions in building of an empirical ecological model of the northern Adriatic which can be used in the sustainable economy of the region, however also in validation of the numerical ecological model of the region, which is currently being developed.

  6. Factors favouring large organic production in the northern Adriatic: towards the northern Adriatic empirical ecological model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kraus, R.; Supić, N.; Precali, R.

    2015-06-01

    Influenced by one of the largest Mediterranean rivers, Po, the northern Adriatic production is highly variable seasonally and interannually. The changes are especially pronounced between winters and seemingly reflect on total Adriatic bioproduction of certain species (anchovy). We analysed the long-term changes in the phytoplankton production at the transect in the region, as derived from monthly oceanographic cruises, in relation to concomitant geostrophic currents distribution in the area and in the Po River discharge rates in days preceding the cruises. In winter and early spring the phyto-abundances depended on existing circulation fields, in summer and autumn they were related to 1-15 days earlier Po River discharge rates and on concomitant circulation fields, while in late spring phyto-abundances increased 1-3 days after high Po River discharge rates regardless of circulation fields. During the entire year the phyto-abundances were dependant on forcing of the previous 1-12 months of surface fluxes and/or Po River rates. Large February blooms are, as well as February circulation patterns, precondited by low evaporation rates in previous November. From 1990 to 2004 a shift towards large winter bioproduction induced by circulation changes appeared. Performed investigations represent the preliminary actions in building of an empirical ecological model of the northern Adriatic which can be used in the sustainable economy of the region, however also in validation of the numerical ecological model of the region, which is currently being developed.

  7. Modeling annual discharge of six Mexico’s northern rivers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jose de Jesus Navar

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available The overall goal of this report was to understand river discharge variability to improve conventional water management practices of Mexico’s northern subtropical rivers. This report addresses whether: a river discharge tendencies, patterns and cycles can be detected with proxy and instrumental records; and b annual discharge can be forecasted by stochastic models. Eleven gauging stations of six major rivers; three lowland rivers discharging into the Pacific Ocean (Rios Santa Cruz, Acaponeta, and San Pedro; five upland rivers draining into the Pacific Ocean (Rio San Pedro: Peña del Aguila, Refugio Salcido, San Felipe, Vicente Guerrero and Saltito, one river flowing across the interior Basin (Rio Nazas: Salomé Acosta and two more rivers discharging into the Northern Gulf of Mexico (Rio San Juan: El Cuchillo and Rio Ramos: Pablillos were statistically analyzed. Instrumental recorded daily discharge data (1940-1999 and reconstructed time series data (1860-1940 using dendrochronological analysis delivered annual discharge data to be modeled using autoregressive integrated moving average, ARIMA models. Spectral density analysis, autocorrelation functions and the standardized annual discharge data evaluated annual discharge frequency cycles. Results showed ARIMA models with two autoregressive and one moving average coefficient adequately project river discharge for all gauging stations with four of them showing significant declining patterns since 1860. ARIMA models in combination with autocorrelation and spectral density techniques as well as standardized departures, in agreement with present (2002-2010 observations, forecast a wet episode that may last between 9 and 12 years thereafter entering again into a dry episode. Three dry-wet spell cycles with different time scales (1-2 years; 4-7 years; 9-12 years could be discerned from these analyses that are consistent for all three northern Mexico’s river clusters that emerged from a multivariate

  8. Northern Forest Ecosystem Dynamics Using Coupled Models and Remote Sensing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ranson, K. J.; Sun, G.; Knox, R. G.; Levine, E. R.; Weishampel, J. F.; Fifer, S. T.

    1999-01-01

    Forest ecosystem dynamics modeling, remote sensing data analysis, and a geographical information system (GIS) were used together to determine the possible growth and development of a northern forest in Maine, USA. Field measurements and airborne synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data were used to produce maps of forest cover type and above ground biomass. These forest attribute maps, along with a conventional soils map, were used to identify the initial conditions for forest ecosystem model simulations. Using this information along with ecosystem model results enabled the development of predictive maps of forest development. The results obtained were consistent with observed forest conditions and expected successional trajectories. The study demonstrated that ecosystem models might be used in a spatial context when parameterized and used with georeferenced data sets.

  9. Thermal numerical modeling of transmission tower foundations in northern Manitoba

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kurz, D.; Alfaro, M. [Manitoba Univ., Winnipeg, MB (Canada). Dept. of Civil Engineering; Bannister, K. [Manitoba Hydro, Winnipeg, MB (Canada). Geotechnical Engineering Dept.

    2009-07-01

    Structural foundations in cold climates must extend below depths of expected frost penetration to protect against frost heaving. The Radisson-Churchill transmission line is the most northern line constructed by Manitoba Hydro. The transmission line crosses areas of both discontinuous and continuous permafrost. This study focused on potential permafrost degradation in the foundations of the power transmission towers. The thermal effectiveness of the foundation design was investigated through numerical modeling of the thermal effects of climate on the transmission tower foundations. The study showed that changing ground cover affects the thermal regime and may cause permafrost degradation. This may lead to reduced bearing capacity for structures, lateral spreading of embankments, and large settlements. Manitoba Hydro successfully used synthetic foundations insulated with polystyrene geofoam for the towers in order to reduce permafrost degradation in the foundations in the warmer southern portions of the transmission line. The geofoam was also used to help prevent frost heaving in the colder northern portions. As part of the thermal monitoring program, ground temperatures were monitored from 1987-1990. Recent studies have improved the understanding of the performance of geofoam insulated foundations. The results from this study will be expanded in future studies to include effects of groundwater and settlements in the development of an elastic thermo-plastic model. 10 refs., 1 tab., 7 figs.

  10. Evaluation of modelled methane emissions over northern peatland sites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Yao; Burke, Eleanor; Chadburn, Sarah; Raivonen, Maarit; Susiluoto, Jouni; Vesala, Timo; Aurela, Mika; Lohila, Annalea; Aalto, Tuula

    2017-04-01

    Methane (CH4) is a powerful greenhouse gas, with approximately 34 times the global warming potential of carbon dioxide (CO2) over a century time horizon (IPCC, 2013). The strong sensitivity of methane emissions to environmental factors has led to concerns about potential positive feedbacks to climate change. Evaluation of the ability of the process-based land surface models of earth system models (ESMs) in simulating CH4 emission over peatland is needed for more precise future predictions. In this study, two peatland sites of poor and rich soil nutrient conditions, in southern and northern Finland respectively, are adopted. The measured CH4 fluxes at the two sites are used to evaluate the CH4 emissions simulated by the land surface model (JULES) of the UK Earth System model and by the Helsinki peatland methane emission model (HIMMELI), which is developed at Finnish Meteorological Institute and Helsinki University. In JULES, CH4 flux is simply related to soil temperature, wetland fraction and effective substrate availability. However, HIMMELI has detailed descriptions of microbial and transport processes for simulating CH4 flux. The seasonal dynamics of CH4 fluxes at the two sites are relatively well captured by both models, but model biases exist. Simulated CH4 flux is sensitive to water table depth (WTD) at both models. However, the simulated WTD is limited to be below ground in JULES. It is also important to have the annual cycle of LAI correct when coupling JULES with HIMMELI.

  11. Modeling Forest Succession among Ecological Land Units in Northern Minnesota

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    George Host

    1998-12-01

    Full Text Available Field and modeling studies were used to quantify potential successional pathways among fine-scale ecological classification units within two geomorphic regions of north-central Minnesota. Soil and overstory data were collected on plots stratified across low-relief ground moraines and undulating sand dunes. Each geomorphic feature was sampled across gradients of topography or soil texture. Overstory conditions were sampled using five variable-radius point samples per plot; soil samples were analyzed for carbon and nitrogen content. Climatic, forest composition, and soil data were used to parameterize the sample plots for use with LINKAGES, a forest growth model that simulates changes in composition and soil characteristics over time. Forest composition and soil properties varied within and among geomorphic features. LINKAGES simulations were using "bare ground" and the current overstory as starting conditions. Northern hardwoods or pines dominated the late-successional communities of morainal and dune landforms, respectively. The morainal landforms were dominated by yellow birch and sugar maple; yellow birch reached its maximum abundance in intermediate landscape positions. On the dune sites, pine was most abundant in drier landscape positions, with white spruce increasing in abundance with increasing soil moisture and N content. The differences in measured soil properties and predicted late-successional composition indicate that ecological land units incorporate some of the key variables that govern forest composition and structure. They further show the value of ecological classification and modeling for developing forest management strategies that incorporate the spatial and temporal dynamics of forest ecosystems.

  12. Regional groundwater flow modeling of the Geba basin, northern Ethiopia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gebreyohannes, Tesfamichael; De Smedt, Florimond; Walraevens, Kristine; Gebresilassie, Solomon; Hussien, Abdelwassie; Hagos, Miruts; Amare, Kassa; Deckers, Jozef; Gebrehiwot, Kindeya

    2017-01-01

    The Geba basin is one of the most food-insecure areas of the Tigray regional state in northern Ethiopia due to recurrent drought resulting from erratic distribution of rainfall. Since the beginning of the 1990s, rain-fed agriculture has been supported through small-scale irrigation schemes mainly by surface-water harvesting, but success has been limited. Hence, use of groundwater for irrigation purposes has gained considerable attention. The main purpose of this study is to assess groundwater resources in the Geba basin by means of a MODFLOW modeling approach. The model is calibrated using observed groundwater levels, yielding a clear insight into the groundwater flow systems and reserves. Results show that none of the hydrogeological formations can be considered as aquifers that can be exploited for large-scale groundwater exploitation. However, aquitards can be identified that can support small-scale groundwater abstraction for irrigation needs in regions that are either designated as groundwater discharge areas or where groundwater levels are shallow and can be tapped by hand-dug wells or shallow boreholes.

  13. Regional groundwater flow modeling of the Geba basin, northern Ethiopia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gebreyohannes, Tesfamichael; De Smedt, Florimond; Walraevens, Kristine; Gebresilassie, Solomon; Hussien, Abdelwassie; Hagos, Miruts; Amare, Kassa; Deckers, Jozef; Gebrehiwot, Kindeya

    2017-05-01

    The Geba basin is one of the most food-insecure areas of the Tigray regional state in northern Ethiopia due to recurrent drought resulting from erratic distribution of rainfall. Since the beginning of the 1990s, rain-fed agriculture has been supported through small-scale irrigation schemes mainly by surface-water harvesting, but success has been limited. Hence, use of groundwater for irrigation purposes has gained considerable attention. The main purpose of this study is to assess groundwater resources in the Geba basin by means of a MODFLOW modeling approach. The model is calibrated using observed groundwater levels, yielding a clear insight into the groundwater flow systems and reserves. Results show that none of the hydrogeological formations can be considered as aquifers that can be exploited for large-scale groundwater exploitation. However, aquitards can be identified that can support small-scale groundwater abstraction for irrigation needs in regions that are either designated as groundwater discharge areas or where groundwater levels are shallow and can be tapped by hand-dug wells or shallow boreholes.

  14. Numerical modelling of an oil spill in the northern Adriatic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marin Paladin

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Hypothetical cases of oil spills, caused by ship failure in the northern Adriatic, are analysed with the aim of producing three-dimensional models of sea circulation and oil contaminant transport. Sea surface elevations, sea temperature and salinity fields are applied as a forcing argument on the model's open boundaries.The Aladin-HR model with a spatial resolution of 8 km and a time interval of 3 hours is used for atmospheric forcing. River discharges along the coastline in question are introduced as point source terms and are assumed to have zero salinity at their respective locations. The results of the numerical modelling of physical oceanography parameters are validated by measurements carried out in the ‘Adriatic Sea monitoring programme’ in a series of current meter and CTD stations in the period from 1 January 2008 to 15 November 2008.The oil spill model uses the current field obtained from a circulation model.Besides the convective dispersive transport of oil pollution (Lagrangian model of discrete particles, the model takes into account a number of reactive processes such as emulsification, dissolution, evaporation and heat balance between the oil,sea and atmosphere. An actual event took place on 6 February 2008,when the ship `Und Adriyatik' caught fire in the vicinity of the town of Rovinj (Croatia en route from Istanbul (Turkey to Trieste (Italy. At the time the fire broke out, the ship was carrying around 800 tons of oil. Thanks to the rapid intervention of the firedepartment, the fire was extinguished during the following 12 hours,preventing possible catastrophic environmental consequences. Based on this occurrence, five hypothetical scenarios of ship failure with a consequent spill of 800 tons of oil over 12 hours were analysed. The main distinction between the simulated scenarios is the time of the start of the oil spill, corresponding to the times when stronger winds were blowing (>7 m s-1 with a minimum duration of 24 h

  15. Regional Fluid Flow and Basin Modeling in Northern Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelley, Karen D.

    2007-01-01

    INTRODUCTION The foothills of the Brooks Range contain an enormous accumulation of zinc (Zn) in the form of zinc sulfide and barium (Ba) in the form of barite in Carboniferous shale, chert, and mudstone. Most of the resources and reserves of Zn occur in the Red Dog deposit and others in the Red Dog district; these resources and reserves surpass those of most deposits worldwide in terms of size and grade. In addition to zinc and lead sulfides (which contain silver, Ag) and barite, correlative strata host phosphate deposits. Furthermore, prolific hydrocarbon source rocks of Carboniferous and Triassic to Early Jurassic age generated considerable amounts of petroleum that may have contributed to the world-class petroleum resources of the North Slope. Deposits of Zn-Pb-Ag or barite as large as those in the Brooks Range are very rare on a global basis and, accordingly, multiple coincident favorable factors must be invoked to explain their origins. To improve our understanding of these factors and to contribute to more effective assessments of resources in sedimentary basins of northern Alaska and throughout the world, the Mineral Resources Program and the Energy Resources Program of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) initiated a project that was aimed at understanding the petroleum maturation and mineralization history of parts of the Brooks Range that were previously poorly characterized. The project, titled ?Regional Fluid Flow and Basin Modeling in Northern Alaska,? was undertaken in collaboration with industry, academia, and other government agencies. This Circular contains papers that describe the results of the recently completed project. The studies that are highlighted in these papers have led to a better understanding of the following: *The complex sedimentary facies relationships and depositional settings and the geochemistry of the sedimentary rocks that host the deposits (sections 2 and 3). *The factors responsible for formation of the barite and zinc deposits

  16. Distribution model for Fishers in the northern US Rocky Mountains

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — The results of this proposed project would provide the first comprehensive identification of fisher distribution in the northern Rocky Mountains, which may serve as...

  17. Effects of model physics on hypoxia simulations for the northern Gulf of Mexico: A model intercomparison

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fennel, Katja; Laurent, Arnaud; Hetland, Robert; Justić, Dubravko; Ko, Dong S.; Lehrter, John; Murrell, Michael; Wang, Lixia; Yu, Liuqian; Zhang, Wenxia

    2016-08-01

    A large hypoxic zone forms every summer on the Texas-Louisiana Shelf in the northern Gulf of Mexico due to nutrient and freshwater inputs from the Mississippi/Atchafalaya River System. Efforts are underway to reduce the extent of hypoxic conditions through reductions in river nutrient inputs, but the response of hypoxia to such nutrient load reductions is difficult to predict because biological responses are confounded by variability in physical processes. The objective of this study is to identify the major physical model aspects that matter for hypoxia simulation and prediction. In order to do so, we compare three different circulation models (ROMS, FVCOM, and NCOM) implemented for the northern Gulf of Mexico, all coupled to the same simple oxygen model, with observations and against each other. By using a highly simplified oxygen model, we eliminate the potentially confounding effects of a full biogeochemical model and can isolate the effects of physical features. In a systematic assessment, we found that (1) model-to-model differences in bottom water temperatures result in differences in simulated hypoxia because temperature influences the uptake rate of oxygen by the sediments (an important oxygen sink in this system), (2) vertical stratification does not explain model-to-model differences in hypoxic conditions in a straightforward way, and (3) the thickness of the bottom boundary layer, which sets the thickness of the hypoxic layer in all three models, is key to determining the likelihood of a model to generate hypoxic conditions. These results imply that hypoxic area, the commonly used metric in the northern Gulf which ignores hypoxic layer thickness, is insufficient for assessing a model's ability to accurately simulate hypoxia, and that hypoxic volume needs to be considered as well.

  18. Alaska Northern Fur Seal Foraging Habitat Model Stable Isotope Data, 2006-2008

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — These data sets were used by Zeppelin et al. (2015) to model northern fur seal foraging habitats based on stable isotope values measured in plasma and red blood...

  19. Modelling Peatland Hydrology: Three cases from Northern Europe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Querner, E.P.; Mioduszewski, W.; Povilaitis, A.; Slesicka, A.

    2010-01-01

    Many of the peatlands that used to extend over large parts of Northern Europe have been reclaimed for agriculture. Human influence continues to have a major impact on the hydrology of those that remain, affecting river flow and groundwater levels. In order to understand this hydrology it is necessar

  20. Modeling co-occurrence of northern spotted and barred owls: accounting for detection probability differences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bailey, Larissa L.; Reid, Janice A.; Forsman, Eric D.; Nichols, James D.

    2009-01-01

    Barred owls (Strix varia) have recently expanded their range and now encompass the entire range of the northern spotted owl (Strix occidentalis caurina). This expansion has led to two important issues of concern for management of northern spotted owls: (1) possible competitive interactions between the two species that could contribute to population declines of northern spotted owls, and (2) possible changes in vocalization behavior and detection probabilities of northern spotted owls induced by presence of barred owls. We used a two-species occupancy model to investigate whether there was evidence of competitive exclusion between the two species at study locations in Oregon, USA. We simultaneously estimated detection probabilities for both species and determined if the presence of one species influenced the detection of the other species. Model selection results and associated parameter estimates provided no evidence that barred owls excluded spotted owls from territories. We found strong evidence that detection probabilities differed for the two species, with higher probabilities for northern spotted owls that are the object of current surveys. Non-detection of barred owls is very common in surveys for northern spotted owls, and detection of both owl species was negatively influenced by the presence of the congeneric species. Our results suggest that analyses directed at hypotheses of barred owl effects on demographic or occupancy vital rates of northern spotted owls need to deal adequately with imperfect and variable detection probabilities for both species.

  1. Changes in behaviour and faecal glucocorticoid levels in response to increased human activities during weekends in the pin-tailed sandgrouse

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casas, Fabián; Benítez-López, Ana; Tarjuelo, Rocío; Barja, Isabel; Viñuela, Javier; García, Jesús T.; Morales, Manuel B.; Mougeot, Francois

    2016-12-01

    Human recreational activities are becoming increasingly widespread and frequent, a fact that may potentially exacerbate their effects on wildlife. These human-related disturbances on animals may induce behavioural and physiological changes that can ultimately affect their fitness, showing a similar anti-predator response that against natural predator or other threats. Here, we combine the use of behavioural and physiological approaches to assess the potential effect of winter human activities on a threatened farmland bird in Europe, the pin-tailed sandgrouse ( Pterocles alchata). We compared before, during and after weekend variations in human activity rates, pin-tailed sandgrouse behaviour (flocking and flying behaviour, interspecific association in mixed flocks and habitat use) and faecal glucocorticoid metabolite concentrations. Human disturbances, in particular those associated with hunting activities, peaked during weekends. Sandgrouse showed significant behavioural changes (increased sandgrouse-only flock sizes, increased proportion of birds flying and changes in habitat use) during weekends and higher faecal glucocorticoid metabolite concentrations after the weekends compared with during or before weekends. Therefore, physiological stress levels could be modulated by behavioural adjustments such as increased flock sizes and changes in habitat use that may allow sandgrouse to cope with increased human disturbance rates during weekends. Nevertheless, temporal and spatial organization of hunting days among groups of estates might be good strategies to buffer these potential adverse effects on wintering pin-tailed sandgrouse and other steppe species of conservation concern, while preserving a socio-economically important activity such as hunting.

  2. Multiple Landslide-Hazard Scenarios Modeled for the Oakland-Berkeley Area, Northern California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pike, Richard J.; Graymer, Russell W.

    2008-01-01

    With the exception of Los Angeles, perhaps no urban area in the United States is more at risk from landsliding, triggered by either precipitation or earthquake, than the San Francisco Bay region of northern California. By January each year, seasonal winter storms usually bring moisture levels of San Francisco Bay region hillsides to the point of saturation, after which additional heavy rainfall may induce landslides of various types and levels of severity. In addition, movement at any time along one of several active faults in the area may generate an earthquake large enough to trigger landslides. The danger to life and property rises each year as local populations continue to expand and more hillsides are graded for development of residential housing and its supporting infrastructure. The chapters in the text consist of: *Introduction by Russell W. Graymer *Chapter 1 Rainfall Thresholds for Landslide Activity, San Francisco Bay Region, Northern California by Raymond C. Wilson *Chapter 2 Susceptibility to Deep-Seated Landsliding Modeled for the Oakland-Berkeley Area, Northern California by Richard J. Pike and Steven Sobieszczyk *Chapter 3 Susceptibility to Shallow Landsliding Modeled for the Oakland-Berkeley Area, Northern California by Kevin M. Schmidt and Steven Sobieszczyk *Chapter 4 Landslide Hazard Modeled for the Cities of Oakland, Piedmont, and Berkeley, Northern California, from a M=7.1 Scenario Earthquake on the Hayward Fault Zone by Scott B. Miles and David K. Keefer *Chapter 5 Synthesis of Landslide-Hazard Scenarios Modeled for the Oakland-Berkeley Area, Northern California by Richard J. Pike The plates consist of: *Plate 1 Susceptibility to Deep-Seated Landsliding Modeled for the Oakland-Berkeley Area, Northern California by Richard J. Pike, Russell W. Graymer, Sebastian Roberts, Naomi B. Kalman, and Steven Sobieszczyk *Plate 2 Susceptibility to Shallow Landsliding Modeled for the Oakland-Berkeley Area, Northern California by Kevin M. Schmidt and Steven

  3. Precipitation over Northern South America and Its Seasonal Variability as Simulated by the CMIP5 Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan P. Sierra

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Northern South America is identified as one of the most vulnerable regions to be affected by climate change. Furthermore, recent extreme wet seasons over the region have induced socioeconomic impacts of wide proportions. Hence, the evaluation of rainfall simulations at seasonal and interannual time scales by the CMIP5 models is urgently required. Here, we evaluated the ability of seven CMIP5 models (selected based on literature review to represent the seasonal mean precipitation and its interannual variability over northern South America. Our results suggest that it is easier for models to reproduce rainfall distribution during boreal summer and fall over both oceans and land. This is probably due to the fact that during these seasons, incoming radiation and ocean-atmosphere feedbacks over Atlantic and Pacific oceans locate the ITCZ on the Northern Hemisphere, as suggested by previous studies. Models exhibit the worse simulations during boreal winter and spring, when these processes have opposite effects locating the ITCZ. Our results suggest that the models with a better representation of the oceanic ITCZ and the local low-level jets over northern South America, such as the Choco low-level jet, are able to realistically simulate the main features of seasonal precipitation pattern over northern South America.

  4. Evaluation of precipitation variability over northern South America based on CMIP5 historical model simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vieira, S. C.; Sierra, J. P.; Arias, P. A.

    2014-12-01

    Northern South America is identified as one of the most vulnerable regions to be affected by climate change. Furthermore, recent extreme wet seasons over the region have caused diverse socio-economic consequences. Hence, the evaluation of the representation of local climate of rainfall simulations at intra-annual seasonal and inter-annual time scales by the CMIP5 models is urgently required, in order to identify and analyze projections of regional and local climate under a global climate change scenario. Here, we evaluate the ability of seven of the CMIP5 models (selected based on literature review) to represent the seasonal mean precipitation and its inter-annual variability over northern South America. Our results suggest that it is easier for models to reproduce rainfall distribution during boreal summer and fall over both oceans and land, since during these seasons, not only incoming radiation, but also ocean-atmosphere feedbacks over Atlantic and Pacific oceans, locate the ITCZ on the Northern Hemisphere. Conversely, models exhibit the worse simulations of the seasonal mean precipitation during boreal winter and spring, when these processes have opposite effects locating the ITCZ. Our results suggest that the models with a better representation of the oceanic ITCZ and the local low-level jets over northern South America, such as the Choco low-level jet, are able to realistically simulate the main features of seasonal precipitation pattern over northern South America.

  5. Present-day 3D structural model of the Po Valley basin, Northern Italy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Turrini, C.; Lacombe, O.; Roure, F.

    2014-01-01

    A 3D structural model of the Po Valley basin (Northern Italy) was built by integrating the dataset available from the public domain (DEM, wells, isobath-maps, cross-sections, outcrop-trends).The model shows the complex foredeep-foreland architecture across the basin, from the Moho level to the topog

  6. Present-day 3D structural model of the Po Valley basin, Northern Italy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Turrini, C.; Lacombe, O.; Roure, F.

    2014-01-01

    A 3D structural model of the Po Valley basin (Northern Italy) was built by integrating the dataset available from the public domain (DEM, wells, isobath-maps, cross-sections, outcrop-trends).The model shows the complex foredeep-foreland architecture across the basin, from the Moho level to the

  7. A model of trophic flows in the northern Benguela upwelling system during the 1980s

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Shannon, L.J.; Jarre, Astrid

    1999-01-01

    in the northern Benguela had both undergone a decline, yet were still heavily fished. Horse mackerel Trachurus trachurus capensis had increased over the previous decade and was the dominant pelagic species during the 1980s, with high catches. Production by some groups, such as goby Sufflogobius bibarbatus...... in the northern Benguela during the 1980s was high, comparable to that of the Peruvian system in the 1960s and almost double that of the northern Benguela during the 1970s. Horse mackerel and hake catches were both high, with fishing on hake being ecologically more expensive. Biomass of benthic producers, meio......- and macrobenthos were a quarter of the total biomass of these groups in the southern Benguela. The sensitivity of the model to parameter estimates is highlighted. Uncertainty about some of the parameters, thought to have major influences on the functioning of the model, is explored...

  8. Two chaotic global models for cereal crops cycles observed from satellite in northern Morocco.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mangiarotti, Sylvain; Drapeau, Laurent; Letellier, Christophe

    2014-06-01

    The dynamics underlying cereal crops in the northern region of Morocco is investigated using a global modelling technique applied to a vegetation index time series derived from satellite measurements, namely, the normalized difference vegetation index from 1982 to 2008. Two three-dimensional chaotic global models of reduced size (14-term and 15-term models) are obtained. The model validation is performed by comparing their horizons of predictability with those provided in previous studies. The attractors produced by the two global models have a complex foliated structure-evidenced in a Poincaré section-rending a topological characterization difficult to perform. Thus, the Kaplan-Yorke dimension is estimated from the synthetic data produced by our global models. Our results suggest that cereal crops in the northern Morocco are governed by a weakly dissipative three-dimensional chaotic dynamics.

  9. Representing northern peatland microtopography and hydrology within the Community Land Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    X. Shi; P.E. Thornton; D.M. Ricciuto; P J. Hanson; J. Mao; Stephen Sebestyen; N.A. Griffiths; G. Bisht

    2015-01-01

    Predictive understanding of northern peatland hydrology is a necessary precursor to understanding the fate of massive carbon stores in these systems under the influence of present and future climate change. Current models have begun to address microtopographic controls on peatland hydrology, but none have included a prognostic calculation of peatland water table depth...

  10. A model study of Abrahamsenbreen, a surging glacier in northern Spitsbergen

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oerlemans, J.; van Pelt, W. J. J.

    2015-01-01

    The climate sensitivity of Abrahamsenbreen, a 20 km long surge-type glacier in northern Spitsbergen, is studied with a simple glacier model. A scheme to describe the surges is included, which makes it possible to account for the effect of surges on the total mass budget of the glacier. A climate rec

  11. A review of and perspectives on global change modeling for Northern Eurasia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monier, Erwan; Kicklighter, David W.; Sokolov, Andrei P.; Zhuang, Qianlai; Sokolik, Irina N.; Lawford, Richard; Kappas, Martin; Paltsev, Sergey V.; Groisman, Pavel Ya

    2017-08-01

    Northern Eurasia is made up of a complex and diverse set of physical, ecological, climatic and human systems, which provide important ecosystem services including the storage of substantial stocks of carbon in its terrestrial ecosystems. At the same time, the region has experienced dramatic climate change, natural disturbances and changes in land management practices over the past century. For these reasons, Northern Eurasia is both a critical region to understand and a complex system with substantial challenges for the modeling community. This review is designed to highlight the state of past and ongoing efforts of the research community to understand and model these environmental, socioeconomic, and climatic changes. We further aim to provide perspectives on the future direction of global change modeling to improve our understanding of the role of Northern Eurasia in the coupled human-Earth system. Modeling efforts have shown that environmental and socioeconomic changes in Northern Eurasia can have major impacts on biodiversity, ecosystems services, environmental sustainability, and the carbon cycle of the region, and beyond. These impacts have the potential to feedback onto and alter the global Earth system. We find that past and ongoing studies have largely focused on specific components of Earth system dynamics and have not systematically examined their feedbacks to the global Earth system and to society. We identify the crucial role of Earth system models in advancing our understanding of feedbacks within the region and with the global system. We further argue for the need for integrated assessment models (IAMs), a suite of models that couple human activity models to Earth system models, which are key to address many emerging issues that require a representation of the coupled human-Earth system.

  12. Modeling the shrub encroachment in the Northern Chihuahuan desert Grasslands using a Cellular Automata model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caracciolo, Domenico; Istanbulluoglu, Erkan; Noto, Leonardo V.

    2014-05-01

    Arid grasslands of southwestern North America have changed dramatically over the last 150 years as a result of the shrub encroachment, i.e. the increase in density and biomass of indigenous shrubby plants in grasslands. Numerous studies have documented the expansion of shrublands in the southwestern America Grasslands; in particular the encroachment of shrubs in american deserts has strongly occurred in the Chihuahuan deserts from 1860. The Sevilleta National Wildlife Refuge (SNWR), located in the northern Chihuahuan desert shows a dramatic encroachment front of creosote bush (i.e., shrub) into native desert grassland. This encroachment has been here simulated using an Ecohydrological Cellular Automata Model, CATGraSS. CATGraSS is a spatially distributed model driven by spatially explicit irradiance and runs on a fine-resolution gridded domain. In the model, each cell can hold a single plant type or can represent bare soil. Plant competition is modeled by keeping track of mortality and establishment of plants, both calculated probabilistically based on soil moisture stress. For this study, the model is improved with a stochastic fire and a grazing function, and its plant establishment algorithm is modified. CATGraSS is implemented in a small area (7.3 km2) in SNWR, characterized by two vegetation types: grass savanna and creosote bush. The causes that have been considered for the encroachment in this case study are: the fire return period increase, the grazing increase, the seed dispersal caused by animals, the role of wind direction and the shrub-grass inhibition effect. The model is able to reproduce the encroachment occurred in the SNWR basin, simulating an increasing of the shrub from 2% in 1860 to 42% (i.e., current shrub percentage) in 2010 highlighting as more influent factors the reduced fire frequency and the increased grazing intensity. For the future management and encroachment control, the reduction of the fire return period and the grazing removal

  13. A dynamic continental runoff routing model applied to the last Northern Hemisphere deglaciation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Goelzer

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available We describe and evaluate a dynamical continental runoff routing model for the Northern Hemisphere that calculates the runoff pathways in response to topographic modifications due to changes in ice thickness and isostatic adjustment. The algorithm is based on the steepest gradient method and takes as simplifying assumption that depressions are filled at all times and water drains through the lowest outlet points. It also considers changes in water storage and lake drainage that become important in the presence of large ice dammed proglacial lakes. Although applicable to other scenarios as well, the model was conceived to study the routing of freshwater fluxes during the last Northern Hemisphere deglaciation. For that specific application we simulated the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets with an existing 3-D thermomechanical ice sheet model, which calculates changes in topography due to changes in ice cover and isostatic adjustment, as well as the evolution of freshwater fluxes resulting from surface ablation, iceberg calving and basal melt. The continental runoff model takes this input, calculates the drainage pathways and routes the freshwater fluxes to the surface grid points of an existing ocean model. This results in a chronology of temporally and spatially varying freshwater fluxes from the Last Glacial Maximum to the present day. We analyse the dependence of the runoff routing to grid resolution and parameters of the isostatic adjustment module of the ice sheet model.

  14. A dynamic continental runoff routing model applied to the last Northern Hemisphere deglaciation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Goelzer

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available We describe and evaluate a dynamical continental runoff routing model for the Northern Hemisphere that calculates the runoff pathways in response to topographic modifications due to changes in ice thickness and isostatic adjustment. The algorithm is based on the steepest gradient method and takes as simplifying assumption that depressions are filled at all times and water drains through the lowest outlet points. It also considers changes in water storage and lake drainage in post-processing mode that become important in the presence of large ice dammed proglacial lakes. Although applicable to other scenarios as well, the model was conceived to study the routing of freshwater fluxes during the last Northern Hemisphere deglaciation. For that specific application we simulated the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets with an existing 3-D thermomechanical ice sheet model, which calculates changes in topography due to changes in ice cover and isostatic adjustment, as well as the evolution of freshwater fluxes resulting from surface ablation, iceberg calving and basal melt. The continental runoff model takes this input, calculates the drainage pathways and routes the freshwater fluxes to the surface grid points of an existing ocean model. This results in a chronology of temporally and spatially varying freshwater fluxes from the Last Glacial Maximum to the present day. We analyse the dependence of the runoff routing to grid resolution and parameters of the isostatic adjustment module of the ice sheet model.

  15. Geostatistical interpolation for modelling SPT data in northern Izmir

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Selim Altun; A Burak Göktepe; Alper Sezer

    2013-12-01

    In this study, it was aimed to map the corrected Standard Penetration Test(SPT) values in Karşıyaka city center by kriging approach. Six maps were prepared by this geostatistical approach at depths of 3, 6, 9, 13.5, 18 and 25.5m. Borehole test results obtained from 388 boreholes in central Karşıyaka were used to model the spatial variation of $(\\text{N}_1)_{\\text{60cs}}$ values in an area of 5.5 km2. Corrections were made for depth, hammer energy, rod length, sampler, borehole diameter and fines content, to the data in hand. At various depths, prepared variograms and the kriging method were used together to model the variation of corrected SPT data in the region, which enabled the estimation of missing data in the region. The results revealed that the estimation ability of the models were acceptable, which were validated by a number of parameters as well as the comparisons of the actual and estimated data. Outcomes of this study can be used in microzonation studies, site response analyses, calculation of bearing capacity of subsoils in the region and producing a number of parameters which are empirically related to corrected SPT number as well.

  16. A biophysical model of S. aurita early life history in the northern Gulf of Guinea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koné, Vamara; Lett, Christophe; Penven, Pierrick; Bourlès, Bernard; Djakouré, Sandrine

    2017-02-01

    S. aurita is the most abundant small pelagic fish in the northern Gulf of Guinea. Its reproduction and recruitment depend crucially on environmental conditions. We developed a biophysical model of S. aurita early life history by coupling offline an individual-based model with the regional oceanic modeling system (ROMS). We used this model to investigate the main factors driving variability in eggs and larval dispersal and survival in the northern Gulf of Guinea. Precisely, individuals were released from different spawning areas along the coast and tracked for a period of 28 days corresponding to their planktonic phase. Individuals that remained in the coastal recruitment areas at an age more than 7 days, at which they can supposedly actively retain themselves in a favorable area, were considered as recruited. Simulation results show the importance of the spawning areas around Cape Palmas and Cape Three Points where cyclonic eddies trap eggs and larvae along the coast, preventing their advection offshore by the Guinea Current. The spawning period also plays a key role in the recruitment success, with highest coastal retention obtained during the major upwelling period (July-September). We find that a second retention peak can occur during the minor upwelling period (February-March) when larval mortality due to temperature is included in the model. These results are in general agreement with knowledge of S. aurita reproduction in the northern Gulf of Guinea.

  17. Representing northern peatland microtopography and hydrology within the Community Land Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    X. Shi

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Predictive understanding of northern peatland hydrology is a necessary precursor to understanding the fate of massive carbon stores in these systems under the influence of present and future climate change. Current models have begun to address microtopographic controls on peatland hydrology, but none have included a prognostic calculation of peatland water table depth for a vegetated wetland, independent of prescribed regional water tables. We introduce here a new configuration of the Community Land Model (CLM which includes a fully prognostic water table calculation for a vegetated peatland. Our structural and process changes to CLM focus on modifications needed to represent the hydrologic cycle of bogs environment with perched water tables, as well as distinct hydrologic dynamics and vegetation communities of the raised hummock and sunken hollow microtopography characteristic of peatland bogs. The modified model was parameterized and independently evaluated against observations from an ombrotrophic raised-dome bog in northern Minnesota (S1-Bog, the site for the Spruce and Peatland Responses Under Climatic and Environmental Change experiment (SPRUCE. Simulated water table levels compared well with site-level observations. The new model predicts significant hydrologic changes in response to planned warming at the SPRUCE site. At present, standing water is commonly observed in bog hollows after large rainfall events during the growing season, but simulations suggest a sharp decrease in water table levels due to increased evapotranspiration under the most extreme warming level, nearly eliminating the occurrence of standing water in the growing season. Simulated soil energy balance was strongly influenced by reduced winter snowpack under warming simulations, with the warming influence on soil temperature partly offset by the loss of insulating snowpack in early and late winter. The new model provides improved predictive capacity for seasonal

  18. Meltwater pulses in the northern North Atlantic: retrodiction and forecast by numerical modelling

    OpenAIRE

    Schäfer-Neth, Christian; Stattegger, K.

    1997-01-01

    Changes in sea surface salinity, especially by sudden meltwater pulses, are the most e§ective process to modify the circulation in the Greenland Iceland Norwegian (GIN) seas. With "Sensitivity and Circulation of the Northern North Atlantic" (SCINNA), a three-dimensional ocean general circulation model, several experiments addressing the possible effects of meltwater inputs of different intensities were carried out. The experiments used (a) the last glacial maximum (LGM) reconstruction based o...

  19. Oblique Convergence Tectonics in Northern Taiwan-Ryukyu Area:Insights from Sandbox Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Z.; Lu, C. Y.

    2015-12-01

    Taiwan located on the boundary between Eurasian Plate and Philippine Sea Plate and as a results of convergence of these two plates. The specific process of Taiwan orogeny is a hot issue for many years. Sandbox modeling is a way to simulate the mountain building process. The previous studies of 3D sandbox modeling in Taiwan are more concentrated on the effect of basement high and arc-continent collision but few noted the effect of opening of Okinawa Trough. This 3D experiment aims at the structure of northern Taiwan, adds a sandpaper machine which could move in experiment that simulate the opening of Okinawa Trough, and tries to explain the tectonic evolution in northern Taiwan. Result of experimental modeling proves that: (1) the Ryukyu Arc is pulled apart and moving southward as the opening of Okinawa Trough, (2) direction of Ryukyu Arc changed between southern part and middle-northern part due to the opening of Okinawa Trough, (3) Ilan Plain subsidence caused by the opening of Okinawa Trough.

  20. Modelling seasonal habitat suitability for wide-ranging species: Invasive wild pigs in northern Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Froese, Jens G; Smith, Carl S; Durr, Peter A; McAlpine, Clive A; van Klinken, Rieks D

    2017-01-01

    Invasive wildlife often causes serious damage to the economy and agriculture as well as environmental, human and animal health. Habitat models can fill knowledge gaps about species distributions and assist planning to mitigate impacts. Yet, model accuracy and utility may be compromised by small study areas and limited integration of species ecology or temporal variability. Here we modelled seasonal habitat suitability for wild pigs, a widespread and harmful invader, in northern Australia. We developed a resource-based, spatially-explicit and regional-scale approach using Bayesian networks and spatial pattern suitability analysis. We integrated important ecological factors such as variability in environmental conditions, breeding requirements and home range movements. The habitat model was parameterized during a structured, iterative expert elicitation process and applied to a wet season and a dry season scenario. Model performance and uncertainty was evaluated against independent distributional data sets. Validation results showed that an expert-averaged model accurately predicted empirical wild pig presences in northern Australia for both seasonal scenarios. Model uncertainty was largely associated with different expert assumptions about wild pigs' resource-seeking home range movements. Habitat suitability varied considerably between seasons, retracting to resource-abundant rainforest, wetland and agricultural refuge areas during the dry season and expanding widely into surrounding grassland floodplains, savanna woodlands and coastal shrubs during the wet season. Overall, our model suggested that suitable wild pig habitat is less widely available in northern Australia than previously thought. Mapped results may be used to quantify impacts, assess risks, justify management investments and target control activities. Our methods are applicable to other wide-ranging species, especially in data-poor situations.

  1. Evaluating the robustness of conceptual rainfall-runoff models under climate variability in northern Tunisia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dakhlaoui, H.; Ruelland, D.; Tramblay, Y.; Bargaoui, Z.

    2017-07-01

    To evaluate the impact of climate change on water resources at the catchment scale, not only future projections of climate are necessary but also robust rainfall-runoff models that must be fairly reliable under changing climate conditions. The aim of this study was thus to assess the robustness of three conceptual rainfall-runoff models (GR4j, HBV and IHACRES) on five basins in northern Tunisia under long-term climate variability, in the light of available future climate scenarios for this region. The robustness of the models was evaluated using a differential split sample test based on a climate classification of the observation period that simultaneously accounted for precipitation and temperature conditions. The study catchments include the main hydrographical basins in northern Tunisia, which produce most of the surface water resources in the country. A 30-year period (1970-2000) was used to capture a wide range of hydro-climatic conditions. The calibration was based on the Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE) criterion, while model transferability was evaluated based on the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency criterion and volume error. The three hydrological models were shown to behave similarly under climate variability. The models simulated the runoff pattern better when transferred to wetter and colder conditions than to drier and warmer ones. It was shown that their robustness became unacceptable when climate conditions involved a decrease of more than 25% in annual precipitation and an increase of more than +1.75 °C in annual mean temperatures. The reduction in model robustness may be partly due to the climate dependence of some parameters. When compared to precipitation and temperature projections in the region, the limits of transferability obtained in this study are generally respected for short and middle term. For long term projections under the most pessimistic emission gas scenarios, the limits of transferability are generally not respected, which may hamper the

  2. Comparison of phenology models for predicting the onset of growing season over the Northern Hemisphere.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fu, Yang; Zhang, Haicheng; Dong, Wenjie; Yuan, Wenping

    2014-01-01

    Vegetation phenology models are important for examining the impact of climate change on the length of the growing season and carbon cycles in terrestrial ecosystems. However, large uncertainties in present phenology models make accurate assessment of the beginning of the growing season (BGS) a challenge. In this study, based on the satellite-based phenology product (i.e. the V005 MODIS Land Cover Dynamics (MCD12Q2) product), we calibrated four phenology models, compared their relative strength to predict vegetation phenology; and assessed the spatial pattern and interannual variability of BGS in the Northern Hemisphere. The results indicated that parameter calibration significantly influences the models' accuracy. All models showed good performance in cool regions but poor performance in warm regions. On average, they explained about 67% (the Growing Degree Day model), 79% (the Biome-BGC phenology model), 73% (the Number of Growing Days model) and 68% (the Number of Chilling Days-Growing Degree Day model) of the BGS variations over the Northern Hemisphere. There were substantial differences in BGS simulations among the four phenology models. Overall, the Biome-BGC phenology model performed best in predicting the BGS, and showed low biases in most boreal and cool regions. Compared with the other three models, the two-phase phenology model (NCD-GDD) showed the lowest correlation and largest biases with the MODIS phenology product, although it could catch the interannual variations well for some vegetation types. Our study highlights the need for further improvements by integrating the effects of water availability, especially for plants growing in low latitudes, and the physiological adaptation of plants into phenology models.

  3. A model for simulating harvest strategies to evaluate the effects of changes in assessment frequency: an application to northern shrimp

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Bourdages, H; Desgagnés, M

    2014-01-01

    An operational model was used to test new decision rules to evaluate the effects of changes in the assessment frequency on management advice for the Northern Shrimp fishery in the Gulf of St. Lawrence...

  4. Rethinking prenatal care within a social model of health: an exploratory study in Northern Ireland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McNeill, Jenny A; Reiger, Kerreen M

    2015-01-01

    Implementation of maternity reform agendas remains limited by the dominance of a medical rather than social model of health. This article considers group prenatal care as a complex health intervention and explores its potential in the socially divided, postconflict communities of Northern Ireland. Using qualitative inquiry strategies, we sought key informants' views on existing prenatal care provision and on an innovative group care model (CenteringPregnancy®) as a social health initiative. We argue that taking account of the locally specific context is critical to introducing maternity care interventions to improve the health of women and their families and to contribute to community development.

  5. Modelling the formation of dense water in the northern Adriatic: Sensitivity studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vilibić, Ivica; Mihanović, Hrvoje; Janeković, Ivica; Šepić, Jadranka

    2016-05-01

    This study aims to document the effects of imposing different river runoff forcing and tidal forcing to the dense water formation (DWF) rates and dynamics in a semi-enclosed sea. An extreme DWF episode that occurred in the winter of 2012 in the shallow northern Adriatic Sea during a prolonged cold bora wind outbreak event has been reproduced using a one-way coupled atmosphere-ocean modelling system comprised of the atmospheric Aladin/HR mesoscale model and ocean ROMS model. Three different river runoff forcing and tides/no tides scenarios were imposed on the model. The introduction of tides and river climatology instead of real rivers did not substantially change the modelled DWF transports and volumes, whereas the simulation using the old Raicich climatology resulted in a substantial freshening of the entire Adriatic that reduced or prevented the DWF at sites in the northern and northeastern Adriatic. The necessity of using an up-to-date river runoff climatology to properly reproduce the DWF in semi-enclosed seas is emphasised.

  6. Three-dimensional Numerical Models of the Cocos-northern Nazca Slab Gap

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jadamec, M.; Fischer, K. M.

    2012-12-01

    In contrast to anisotropy beneath the middle of oceanic plates, seismic observations in subduction zones often indicate mantle flow patterns that are not easily explained by simple coupling of the subducting and overriding plates to the mantle. For example, in the Costa Rica-Nicaragua subduction zone local S shear wave splitting measurements combined with geochemical data indicate trench parallel flow in the mantle wedge with flow rates of 6.3-19 cm/yr, which is on order of or may be up to twice the subducting plate velocity. We construct geographically referenced high-resolution three-dimensional (3D) geodynamic models of the Cocos-northern Nazca subduction system to investigate what is driving the northwest directed, and apparently rapid, trench-parallel flow in the mantle wedge beneath Costa Rica-Nicaragua. We use the SlabGenerator code to construct a 3D plate configuration that is used as input to the community mantle convection code, CitcomCU. Models are run on over 400 CPUs on XSEDE, with a mesh resolution of up to 3 km at the plate boundary. Seismicity and seismic tomography delineate the shape and depth of the Cocos and northern Nazca slabs. The subducting plate thermal structure is based on a plate cooling model and ages from the seafloor age grid. Overriding plate thickness is constrained by the ages from the sea floor age grid where available and the depth to the lithosphere-asthenosphere boundary from the greatest negative gradient in absolute shear wave velocity. The geodynamic models test the relative controls of the change in the dip of the Cocos plate and the slab gap between the Cocos and northern Nazca plates in driving the mantle flow beneath Central America. The models also investigate the effect of a non-Newtonian rheology in dynamically generating a low viscosity mantle wedge and how this controls mantle flow rates. To what extent the Cocos-northern Nazca slab gap channelizes mantle flow between Central and South America has direct application

  7. Forecasting the northern African dust outbreak towards Europe in April 2011: a model intercomparison

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huneeus, N.; Basart, S.; Fiedler, S.; Morcrette, J.-J.; Benedetti, A.; Mulcahy, J.; Terradellas, E.; Pérez García-Pando, C.; Pejanovic, G.; Nickovic, S.; Arsenovic, P.; Schulz, M.; Cuevas, E.; Baldasano, J. M.; Pey, J.; Remy, S.; Cvetkovic, B.

    2016-04-01

    In the framework of the World Meteorological Organisation's Sand and Dust Storm Warning Advisory and Assessment System, we evaluated the predictions of five state-of-the-art dust forecast models during an intense Saharan dust outbreak affecting western and northern Europe in April 2011. We assessed the capacity of the models to predict the evolution of the dust cloud with lead times of up to 72 h using observations of aerosol optical depth (AOD) from the AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and dust surface concentrations from a ground-based measurement network. In addition, the predicted vertical dust distribution was evaluated with vertical extinction profiles from the Cloud and Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP). To assess the diversity in forecast capability among the models, the analysis was extended to wind field (both surface and profile), synoptic conditions, emissions and deposition fluxes. Models predict the onset and evolution of the AOD for all analysed lead times. On average, differences among the models are larger than differences among lead times for each individual model. In spite of large differences in emission and deposition, the models present comparable skill for AOD. In general, models are better in predicting AOD than near-surface dust concentration over the Iberian Peninsula. Models tend to underestimate the long-range transport towards northern Europe. Our analysis suggests that this is partly due to difficulties in simulating the vertical distribution dust and horizontal wind. Differences in the size distribution and wet scavenging efficiency may also account for model diversity in long-range transport.

  8. Forecasting the Northern African Dust Outbreak Towards Europe in April 2011: A Model Intercomparison

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huneeus, N.; Basart, S.; Fiedler, S.; Morcrette, J.-J.; Benedetti, A.; Mulcahy, J.; Terradellas, E.; Pérez García-Pando, C.; Pejanovic, G.; Nickovic, S.

    2016-01-01

    In the framework of the World Meteorological Organisation's Sand and Dust Storm Warning Advisory and Assessment System, we evaluated the predictions of five state-of-the-art dust forecast models during an intense Saharan dust outbreak affecting western and northern Europe in April 2011. We assessed the capacity of the models to predict the evolution of the dust cloud with lead times of up to 72 hours using observations of aerosol optical depth (AOD) from the AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and dust surface concentrations from a ground-based measurement network. In addition, the predicted vertical dust distribution was evaluated with vertical extinction profiles from the Cloud and Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP). To assess the diversity in forecast capability among the models, the analysis was extended to wind field (both surface and profile), synoptic conditions, emissions and deposition fluxes. Models predict the onset and evolution of the AOD for all analysed lead times. On average, differences among the models are larger than differences among lead times for each individual model. In spite of large differences in emission and deposition, the models present comparable skill for AOD. In general, models are better in predicting AOD than near-surface dust concentration over the Iberian Peninsula. Models tend to underestimate the long-range transport towards northern Europe. Our analysis suggests that this is partly due to difficulties in simulating the vertical distribution dust and horizontal wind. Differences in the size distribution and wet scavenging efficiency may also account for model diversity in long-range transport.

  9. Modelling scenarios of land use change in northern China in the next 50 years

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    HEChunyang; LIJinggang; SHIPeijun; CHENJin; PANYaozhong; LIXiaobing

    2005-01-01

    Modelling scenarios of land use change and their impacts in typical regions are helpful to investigate the mechanism between land use and ecological systems and process the land use allocation under the ecological security. A system dynamics (SD) model with the aim to modelling scenarios of land use change and assessing ecological impact in northern China in the next 50 years is developed here. The accuracy assessment with the historic data from 1990 to 2001 indicated the SD model is robust. After the different """"what-if' scenarios controlled by GDP, population, market, and technology advancement were built, the different scenarios of land use change in northern China from 2000 to 2050 were simulated with their ecological impact assessed. The result suggested that such factors as GDP, population, market and technology have a strong relationship with land use structural change innorthern China. It also indicated that such measures as strict controlling of population increase,importing some food to keep the supply-demand balance in the region, and improving agricultural technology will be the guarantee of regional sustainable development with fast economic growth and the obvious land use structural improvement at the same time.

  10. Northern high-latitude climate change between the mid and late Holocene – Part 2: Model-data comparisons

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Nilsson

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available The solar orbital forcing induced changes in insolation at the mid-Holocene compared to the late Holocene, which causes an amplification of the seasonal cycle in the Northern Hemisphere in the earlier period. The climate response over northern high latitudes, to this change in forcing has been investigated in three types of PMIP (Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project simulations with different complexity of the climate system. The model results have also been compared with available reconstructions from temperature proxy data. Both the reconstructions and the PMIP2 models show a warm response in annual mean temperature, as well as in summer and winter temperature. The model-model comparisons indicate the importance of including the different physical feedbacks (ocean, sea-ice, vegetation in the climate model. An objective selection method is applied in the model-data comparison to evaluate the capability of the climate model in reproducing the spatial response pattern. The comparisons between the reconstructions and the best-fit selected simulations show that over the northern high latitudes, summer temperature change follows closely to the insolation and shows a common feature with strong warming over land and relatively weak warming over ocean. A pronounced warming centre is found over Barents Sea in winter in model simulations, which is also supported by the nearby northern Eurasian continental reconstructions. The warming over Barents Sea corresponds to a positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO. The strengthened sea level pressure gradient may have caused a northward shift of the Atlantic storm track. It results in enhanced westerlies towards the northern Eurasia, which may be responsible for the winter warming over northern Fennoscandia and northern Siberia.

  11. Modeling of bud break of Scots pine in northern Finland in 1908–2014

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hannu eSalminen

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Bud break and height-growth of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L. in the northern boreal zone in Lapland, Finland, was followed through the entire growing seasons in 2001–2003 and 2008–2010 in sapling stands representing two different locations in northern Finland about 250 kilometers apart along latitudinal transect. The field measurements continued at the southern site also through 2011–2013. Air temperature was recorded hourly at the sites. A simple optimization algorithm (GA was used to adjust parameters of the models predicting the timing of bud break of Scots pine in order to minimize the difference between observed and predicted dates. The models giving the best performance and century-long daily temperatures were used to reconstruct bud-break time series. The temperature observations were recorded during 1908–2014 in Sodankylä that locates in-between the sapling stands in north–south direction and during 1877–2014 in Karasjok that is in Norway about 145 kilometers north-west from the northernmost stand of this study.On average buds began to extend on the beginning of May in the southernmost stand and in mid-May in the northernmost stands, and the variation between years was in the range of three weeks. Simple day-length-triggered (fixed date model predicted most accurately the date of bud break; RMSE was 2 and 4 days in the northern and southern site, respectively. The reconstructed bud-break series indicate that based on temperature observations from Sodankylä, growth onset of Scots pine clearly has advanced since 1960s but was as currently early in the 1920s and 1950s. Temperature record from Karasjok indicated similar variation but there was a weak linear trend advancing bud break by about 3–4 days during a 100 years period.

  12. Towards improved storm surge models in the northern Bay of Bengal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krien, Y.; Testut, L.; Islam, A. K. M. S.; Bertin, X.; Durand, F.; Mayet, C.; Tazkia, A. R.; Becker, M.; Calmant, S.; Papa, F.; Ballu, V.; Shum, C. K.; Khan, Z. H.

    2017-03-01

    The northern Bay of Bengal is home to some of the deadliest cyclones recorded during the last decades. Storm surge models developed for this region significantly improved in recent years, but they still fail to predict patterns of coastal flooding with sufficient accuracy. In the present paper, we make use of a state-of-the art numerical modeling system with improved bathymetric and topographic data to identify the strengths, weaknesses, and to suggest areas for improvement of current storm surge models in this area. The new model is found to perform relatively well in reproducing waves characteristics and maximum water levels for the two extreme cyclones studied here: Phailin (2013) and Sidr (2007). The wave setup turns out to be small compared to the wind-driven surge, although it still plays a significant role for inland flooding. Relatively large tide-surge interactions mainly due to shallow water effects are also evidenced by the model. These findings plead in favor of further efforts to improve the representation of the bathymetry, especially in the nearshore area, and the implementation of models including tides and radiation stresses explicitly. The main limit of the model is its inability to predict the detailed patterns of coastal flooding satisfactorily. The reason lies mainly in the fact that topographic data also need to be further improved. In particular, a good knowledge of embankments characteristics (crest elevation and their condition) is found to be of primary importance to represent inland flooding correctly. Public authorities should take urgent action to ensure that better data are available to the scientific community, so that state-of-the-art storm surge models reaching a sufficiently high level of confidence can be used for emergency preparedness and to implement mitigation strategies in the northern Bay of Bengal.

  13. Twenty-first century changes in snowfall climate in Northern Europe in ENSEMBLES regional climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Räisänen, Jouni

    2016-01-01

    Changes in snowfall in northern Europe (55-71°N, 5-35°E) are analysed from 12 regional model simulations of twenty-first century climate under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios A1B scenario. As an ensemble mean, the models suggest a decrease in the winter total snowfall in nearly all of northern Europe. In the middle of the winter, however, snowfall generally increases in the coldest areas. The borderline between increasing and decreasing snowfall broadly coincides with the -11 °C isotherm in baseline (1980-2010) monthly mean temperature, although with variation between models and grid boxes. High extremes of daily snowfall remain nearly unchanged, except for decreases in the mildest areas, where snowfall as a whole becomes much less common. A smaller fraction of the snow in the simulated late twenty-first century climate falls on severely cold days and a larger fraction on days with near-zero temperatures. Not only do days with low temperatures become less common, but they also typically have more positive anomalies of sea level pressure and less snowfall for the same temperature than in the present-day climate.

  14. Oxygen cycling in the northern Benguela Upwelling System: Modelling oxygen sources and sinks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmidt, Martin; Eggert, Anja

    2016-12-01

    This paper elucidates the oxygen dynamics in the northern Benguela Upwelling System by means of process oriented, numerical modelling. Owing to the complex physical-biological interaction in this system, a coupled hydrodynamic-biogeochemical model is required to grasp the various aspects of the oxygen dynamics. We used high-resolution atmospheric fields derived from observations to force our model, available since 1999. The model results represent a 15 years, consistent data set of realistic hydrographic and ecosystem variables, including oxygen distribution patterns. After a concise description of the main aspects of the model, we use the model data to analyse the components contributing to the oxygen dynamics, namely, the ocean circulation, the exchange between ocean and atmosphere as well as the local biogeochemical oxygen cycling in the system. We thoroughly validate the model with available field observations and remote sensing data. The strengths of coastal upwelling, which controls the nutrient supply to the euphotic zone, as well as the poleward undercurrent that carries oxygen and nutrients to the shelf in the northern Benguela Upwelling System are well reproduced in the model. Among the biological oxygen sinks, mineralisation in the sediment, respiration of zooplankton and nitrification in the water column are important. We also found that vertical migration of zooplankton in response to the oxygen conditions provides a regulating feedback, which may prevent a complete deoxygenation of suboxic waters. As long as oxygen or nitrate are available in the bottom waters, the activities of chemolithoautotrophic sulphur bacteria on the sediment surface keep the redoxcline within the sediment and prevent the release of hydrogen sulphide into the water column. By horizontal integration of the simulated ocean-atmosphere oxygen flux, it can be shown that the Kunene upwelling cell between 16 ° S and 18 ° S is a boundary between the equatorial ocean, characterise by

  15. A northern hemisphere geomagnetic field model for the last 14ka

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pavon-Carrasco, Fco Javier; Osete, Maria Luisa; Miquel Torta, Joan; de Santis, Angelo

    2013-04-01

    In this work, we propose a first regional geomagnetic field model for the Northern Hemisphere based on archaeomagnetic and lava flow data. The regional model, called scha.dif.14k, allows us to analyse the low degree of the geomagnetic field secular variation for the last 14000 years: from 12000 BC to 1900 AD. The inversion process of the declination, inclination and intensity palaeomagnetic data was carried out iteratively, using the spherical cap harmonic analysis (SCHA) up to degree K = 4 in space and penalized cubic B-spline in time with a knot point of 100 years for the whole time interval. Three starting models have been tested: a) A constant axial dipole field, b) a time-dependent axial dipole field and c) a time-dependent inclined dipole field. The last two starting models were estimated by using directly the archaeomagnetic data. These starting models have been perturbed in order to obtain a regional model with a higher spatial and temporal variability. We have compared the model with the recent published palaeosecular variation curves and with the global model for the Holocene: CALS10K.1b. Our model fits reasonably well the different palaeosecular variation curves and improves the prediction of the CALS10K.1b global model.

  16. Modelling runoff in the northern boreal forest using SLURP with snow ripening and frozen ground

    Science.gov (United States)

    St. Laurent, M. E.; Valeo, C.

    2003-04-01

    Northern Manitoba is rich in water resources and the management of this water resource is affected by the hydrological processes taking place in the primarily Boreal forested, flat landscape of the region. This work provides insight into large-scale hydrological modelling in this area using the SLURP hydrological model while incorporating the effects of ripening snow and frozen ground. SLURP was applied to two large watersheds in northern Manitoba. The Taylor River watershed (800 square-km) and the Burntwood River watershed (7000 square-km) were used as study boundaries for the calibration and validation of the original SLURP model (version 12.2) and a modified version that incorporated frozen ground and ripening snow. Digital Elevation Models were derived with ARC/INFO's TOPOGRID function, and in conjunction with digital land cover data, ASAs and their associated physiographic data were derived using SLURPView. A thorough literature review of boreal forest hydrology provided initial parameter estimates. Daily data from 1984 to 1998 were used to calibrate and verify the original model under a variety of meteorological conditions. Calibration on the Taylor River watershed produced respectable results, and model verification efficiencies over the 15 year period were quite good. Verification performance of the Taylor parameter set on the Burntwood River watershed was not acceptable, but only modifications to the evapotranspiration parameters were required to bring model performance up to acceptable levels. Comparisons between observed and computed hydrographs identified problems with spring snowmelt timing, peak and volume prediction. This may be attributed to a lack of consideration for frozen ground in the model, and the use of the temperature index method for snowmelt. Simulations that incorporated a widely used frozen ground infiltration model into SLURP did not improve model performance. However, when SLURP's snowmelt routine was modified to consider the effects

  17. Numerical modeling of the winter circulation of the Gulf of Trieste (northern Adriatic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Boris PETELIN

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available Numerical simulations of the winter circulation in and around the Gulf of Trieste are presented. The model, based on the architecture of the Princeton Ocean Model, gave reasonable results for circulation in the Gulf during the winter period, when the dominant bora wind is blowing. Three model runs with different initial and surface boundary conditions show that there is an outflow along the shallow northern coastline of the Gulf and over the surface of the major part of the area, and an inflow at depth in the central and southern parts of the Gulf. However, the variability of the temperature and salinity fields when vertical fluxes of heat and salinity are present cause a weak outflow in an area near the southern part of the Gulf, and make the general circulation pattern more complex.

  18. High Resolution Modelling of Aerosols-Meteorology Interactions over Northern Europe and Arctic regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahura, Alexander; Nuterman, Roman; Baklanov, Alexander

    2017-04-01

    Aerosols have influence on weather, air quality and climate. Multi-scale modelling, and especially long-range atmospheric transport, dispersion, and deposition of aerosols from remote sources is especially challenging in northern latitudes. It is due to complexity of meteorological, chemical and biological processes, their interactions and especially within and above the surface layer, linking to climate change, and influence on ecosystems. The online integrated meteorology-chemistry-aerosols model Enviro-HIRLAM (Environment - High Resolution Limited Area Model) was employed for evaluating spatio-temporal variability of atmospheric aerosols and their interactions and effects on meteorology with a focus on the Northern Europe and Arctic regions. The model setup covers domain having 510 x 568 grids of latitude vs. longitude, horizontal resolution of 0.15 deg, 40 vertical hybrid levels, time step of 360 sec, 6 h meteorological surface data assimilation. The model was run for January and July-August 2010 at DMI's CRAY-XC30 supercomputer. Emissions used are anthropogenic (ECLIPSE v5), shipping (combined AU_RCP and FMI), wildfires (IS4FIRES), and interactive sea salt, dust and DMS. The boundary conditions were obtained from ECMWF: for meteorology (from IFS at 0.15 and 0.25 deg. for summer and winter, respectively) and atmospheric composition (from MACC Reanalysis at 1.125 deg. resolution). The Enviro-HIRLAM model was employed in 4 modes: the reference run (e.g. without aerosols influence on meteorology) and 3 modified runs (direct aerosol effect (DAE), indirect aerosol effect (IDAE), and both effects DAE and IDAE included). The differences between the reference run and the runs with mentioned aerosol effects were estimated on a day-by-day, monthly and diurnal cycle bases over the domain, Arctic areas, European and Nordic countries. The results of statistical analyses are summarized and presented.

  19. Regional three-dimensional seismic velocity model of the crust and uppermost mantle of northern California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thurber, C.; Zhang, H.; Brocher, T.; Langenheim, V.

    2009-01-01

    We present a three-dimensional (3D) tomographic model of the P wave velocity (Vp) structure of northern California. We employed a regional-scale double-difference tomography algorithm that incorporates a finite-difference travel time calculator and spatial smoothing constraints. Arrival times from earthquakes and travel times from controlled-source explosions, recorded at network and/or temporary stations, were inverted for Vp on a 3D grid with horizontal node spacing of 10 to 20 km and vertical node spacing of 3 to 8 km. Our model provides an unprecedented, comprehensive view of the regional-scale structure of northern California, putting many previously identified features into a broader regional context and improving the resolution of a number of them and revealing a number of new features, especially in the middle and lower crust, that have never before been reported. Examples of the former include the complex subducting Gorda slab, a steep, deeply penetrating fault beneath the Sacramento River Delta, crustal low-velocity zones beneath Geysers-Clear Lake and Long Valley, and the high-velocity ophiolite body underlying the Great Valley. Examples of the latter include mid-crustal low-velocity zones beneath Mount Shasta and north of Lake Tahoe. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

  20. A GIS-based time-dependent seismic source modeling of Northern Iran

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hashemi, Mahdi; Alesheikh, Ali Asghar; Zolfaghari, Mohammad Reza

    2017-01-01

    The first step in any seismic hazard study is the definition of seismogenic sources and the estimation of magnitude-frequency relationships for each source. There is as yet no standard methodology for source modeling and many researchers have worked on this topic. This study is an effort to define linear and area seismic sources for Northern Iran. The linear or fault sources are developed based on tectonic features and characteristic earthquakes while the area sources are developed based on spatial distribution of small to moderate earthquakes. Time-dependent recurrence relationships are developed for fault sources using renewal approach while time-independent frequency-magnitude relationships are proposed for area sources based on Poisson process. GIS functionalities are used in this study to introduce and incorporate spatial-temporal and geostatistical indices in delineating area seismic sources. The proposed methodology is used to model seismic sources for an area of about 500 by 400 square kilometers around Tehran. Previous researches and reports are studied to compile an earthquake/fault catalog that is as complete as possible. All events are transformed to uniform magnitude scale; duplicate events and dependent shocks are removed. Completeness and time distribution of the compiled catalog is taken into account. The proposed area and linear seismic sources in conjunction with defined recurrence relationships can be used to develop time-dependent probabilistic seismic hazard analysis of Northern Iran.

  1. A flood episode in northern Italy: multi-model and single-model mesoscale meteorological ensembles for hydrological predictions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Davolio

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Numerical weather prediction models can be coupled with hydrological models to generate streamflow forecasts. Several ensemble approaches have been recently developed in order to take into account the different sources of errors and provide probabilistic forecasts feeding a flood forecasting system. Within this framework, the present study aims at comparing two high-resolution limited-area meteorological ensembles, covering short and medium range, obtained via different methodologies, but implemented with similar number of members, horizontal resolution (about 7 km, and driving global ensemble prediction system. The former is a multi-model ensemble, based on three mesoscale models (BOLAM, COSMO, and WRF, while the latter, following a single-model approach, is the operational ensemble forecasting system developed within the COSMO consortium, COSMO-LEPS (limited-area ensemble prediction system. The meteorological models are coupled with a distributed rainfall-runoff model (TOPKAPI to simulate the discharge of the Reno River (northern Italy, for a recent severe weather episode affecting northern Apennines. The evaluation of the ensemble systems is performed both from a meteorological perspective over northern Italy and in terms of discharge prediction over the Reno River basin during two periods of heavy precipitation between 29 November and 2 December 2008. For each period, ensemble performance has been compared at two different forecast ranges. It is found that, for the intercomparison undertaken in this specific study, both mesoscale model ensembles outperform the global ensemble for application at basin scale. Horizontal resolution is found to play a relevant role in modulating the precipitation distribution. Moreover, the multi-model ensemble provides a better indication concerning the occurrence, intensity and timing of the two observed discharge peaks, with respect to COSMO-LEPS. This seems to be ascribable to the different behaviour of the

  2. Reproducibility of summertime diurnal precipitation over northern Eurasia simulated by CMIP5 climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirota, N.; Takayabu, Y. N.

    2015-12-01

    Reproducibility of diurnal precipitation over northern Eurasia simulated by CMIP5 climate models in their historical runs were evaluated, in comparison with station data (NCDC-9813) and satellite data (GSMaP-V5). We first calculated diurnal cycles by averaging precipitation at each local solar time (LST) in June-July-August during 1981-2000 over the continent of northern Eurasia (0-180E, 45-90N). Then we examined occurrence time of maximum precipitation and a contribution of diurnally varying precipitation to the total precipitation.The contribution of diurnal precipitation was about 21% in both NCDC-9813 and GSMaP-V5. The maximum precipitation occurred at 18LST in NCDC-9813 but 16LST in GSMaP-V5, indicating some uncertainties even in the observational datasets. The diurnal contribution of the CMIP5 models varied largely from 11% to 62%, and their timing of the precipitation maximum ranged from 11LST to 20LST. Interestingly, the contribution and the timing had strong negative correlation of -0.65. The models with larger diurnal precipitation showed precipitation maximum earlier around noon. Next, we compared sensitivity of precipitation to surface temperature and tropospheric humidity between 5 models with large diurnal precipitation (LDMs) and 5 models with small diurnal precipitation (SDMs). Precipitation in LDMs showed high sensitivity to surface temperature, indicating its close relationship with local instability. On the other hand, synoptic disturbances were more active in SDMs with a dominant role of the large scale condensation, and precipitation in SDMs was more related with tropospheric moisture. Therefore, the relative importance of the local instability and the synoptic disturbances was suggested to be an important factor in determining the contribution and timing of the diurnal precipitation. Acknowledgment: This study is supported by Green Network of Excellence (GRENE) Program by the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology

  3. Episodic slow slip events in a non-planar subduction fault model for northern Cascadia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, D.; Liu, Y.; Matsuzawa, T.; Shibazaki, B.

    2014-12-01

    Episodic tremor and slow slip (ETS) events have been detected along the Cascadia margin, as well as many other subduction zones, by increasingly dense seismic and geodetic networks over the past decade. In northern Cascadia, ETS events arise on the thrust fault interface of 30~50 km depth, coincident with metamorphic dehydration of the subducting oceanic slab around temperatures of 350. Previous numerical simulations (e.g., Liu and Rice 2007) suggested that near-lithostatic pore pressure in the rate-state friction stability transition zone could give rise to slow slip events (SSE) down-dip of the seismogenic zone, which provides a plausible physical mechanism for these phenomena. Here we present a 3-D numerical simulation of inter-seismic SSEs based on the rate- and state- friction law, incorporating a non-planar, realistic northern Cascadia slab geometry compiled by McCrory et al. (2012) using triangular dislocation elements. Preliminary results show that the width and pore pressure level of the transition zone can remarkably affect the recurrence of SSEs. With effective normal stress of ~1-2 MPa and characteristic slip distance of ~1.4 mm, inter-seismic SSEs can arise about every year. The duration of each event is about 2~3 weeks, with the propagating speed along strike in the range of km/day. Furthermore, the slab bending beneath southern Vancouver Island and northern Washington State appears to accelerate the along-strike propagation of SSEs. Our next step is to constrain the rate-state frictional properties using geodetic inversion of SSE slip and inter-SSE plate coupling from the Plate Boundary Observatory (PBO) GPS measurements. Incorporating the realistic fault geometry into a physics model constrained by geodetic data will enable us to transition from a conceptual towards a quantitative and predictive understanding of SSEs mechanism.

  4. Tectonoestratigraphic and Thermal Models of the Tiburon and Wagner Basins, northern Gulf of California Rift System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Contreras, J.; Ramirez Zerpa, N. A.; Negrete-Aranda, R.

    2014-12-01

    The northern Gulf of California Rift System consist sofa series faults that accommodate both normal and strike-slip motion. The faults formed a series of half-greens filled with more than 7 km of siliciclastic suc­cessions. Here, we present tectonostratigraphic and heat flow models for the Tiburón basin, in the southern part of the system, and the Wag­ner basin in the north. The models are constrained by two-dimensional seis­mic lines and by two deep boreholes drilled by PEMEX­-PEP. Analysis of the seismic lines and models' results show that: (i) subsidence of the basins is controlled by high-angle normal faults and by flow of the lower crust, (ii) basins share a common history, and (iii) there are significant differences in the way brittle strain was partitioned in the basins, a feature frequently observed in rift basins. On one hand, the bounding faults of the Tiburón basin have a nested geometry and became active following a west-to-east sequence of activation. The Tiburon half-graben was formed by two pulses of fault activity. One took place during the protogulf extensional phase in the Miocene and the other during the opening of Gulf of California in the Pleistocene. On the other hand, the Wagner basin is the result of two fault generations. During the late-to middle Miocene, the west-dipping Cerro Prieto and San Felipe faults formed a domino array. Then, during the Pleistocene the Consag and Wagner faults dissected the hanging-wall of the Cerro Prieto fault forming the modern Wagner basin. Thermal modeling of the deep borehole temperatures suggests that the heat flow in these basins in the order of 110 mW/m2 which is in agreement with superficial heat flow measurements in the northern Gulf of California Rift System.

  5. Assessment of model estimates of land–atmosphere CO2 exchange across Northern Eurasia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. A. Rawlins

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available A warming climate is altering land–atmosphere exchanges of carbon, with a potential for increased vegetation productivity as well as the mobilization of permafrost soil carbon stores. Here we investigate land–atmosphere carbon dioxide (CO2 dynamics through analysis of net ecosystem productivity (NEP and its component fluxes of gross primary productivity (GPP and ecosystem respiration (ER and soil carbon residence time, simulated by a set of land surface models (LSMs over a region spanning the drainage basin of northern Eurasia. The retrospective simulations were conducted over the 1960–2009 record and at 0.5° resolution, which is a scale common among many global carbon and climate model simulations. Model performance benchmarks were drawn from comparisons against both observed CO2 fluxes derived from site-based eddy covariance measurements as well as regional-scale GPP estimates based on satellite remote sensing data. The site-based comparisons show the timing of peak GPP to be well simulated. Modest overestimates in model GPP and ER are also found, which are relatively higher for two boreal forest validation sites than the two tundra sites. Across the suite of model simulations, NEP increases by as little as 0.01 to as much as 0.79 g C m−2 yr−2, equivalent to 3 to 340% of the respective model means, over the analysis period. For the multimodel average the increase is 135% of the mean from the first to last ten years of record (1960–1969 vs 2000–2009, with a weakening CO2 sink over the latter decades. Vegetation net primary productivity increased by 8 to 30% from the first to last ten years, contributing to soil carbon storage gains, while model mean residence time for soil organic carbon decreased by 10% (−5 to −16%. This suggests that inputs to the soil carbon pool exceeded losses, resulting in a net gain amid a decrease in residence time. Our analysis points to improvements in model elements controlling vegetation

  6. Multiscale Modeling of Multi-decadal Trends in Ozone and Precursor Species Across the Northern Hemisphere and the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Multi-decadal model calculations for the 1990-2010 period are performed with the coupled WRF-CMAQ modeling system over a domain encompassing the northern hemisphere and a nested domain over the continental U.S. Simulated trends in ozone and precursor species concentrations acros...

  7. Quantifying the role of biosphere-atmosphere feedbacks in climate change: coupled model simulations for 6000 years BP and comparison with palaeodata for northern Eurasia and northern Africa

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Texier, D.; de Noblet, N. [CEA Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette (France). Lab. de Modelisation du Climat et de l`Environnement; Harrison, S.P.; Laarif, F. [Dynamic Palaeoclimatology, Lund University, Box 117, S-221 00 Lund (Sweden); Haxeltine, A. [Physical Geography, Lund University, S-22100 Lund (Sweden); Jolly, D.; Prentice, I.C. [Global Systems Group, Department of Ecology, Ecology Building, S-223 b2 Lund (Sweden); Joussaume, S. [CEA Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette (France). Lab. de Modelisation du Climat et de l`Environnement]|[Laboratoire d`Oceanographie Dynamique et de Climatologie, CNRS/ORSTOM/UPCM, Paris (France); Tarasov, P. [Dynamic Palaeoclimatology, Lund University, Box 117, S-221 00 Lund (Sweden)]|[Department of Geography, Moscow State University, 119 899 Moscow (Russian Federation)

    1997-12-01

    The LMD AGCM was iteratively coupled to the global BIOME1 model in order to explore the role of vegetation-climate interactions in response to mid-Holocene (6000 y BP) orbital forcing. The sea-surface temperature and sea-ice distribution used were present-day and CO{sub 2} concentration was preindustrial. The land surface was initially prescribed with present-day vegetation. Initial climate ``anomalies`` (differences between AGCM results for 6000 y BP and control) were used to drive BIOME1; the simulated vegetation was provided to a further AGCM run, and so on. Results after five iterations were compared to the initial results in order to identify vegetation feedbacks. These were centred on regions showing strong initial responses. The orbitally induced high-latitude summer warming, and the intensification and extension of Northern Hemisphere tropical monsoons, were both amplified by vegetation feedbacks. Vegetation feedbacks were smaller than the initial orbital effects for most regions and seasons, but in West Africa the summer precipitation increase more than doubled in response to changes in vegetation. In the last iteration, global tundra area was reduced by 25% and the southern limit of the Sahara desert was shifted 2.5 N north (to 18 N) relative to today. These results were compared with 6000 y BP observational data recording forest-tundra boundary changes in northern Eurasia and savana-desert boundary changes in northern Africa. Although the inclusion of vegetation feedbacks improved the qualitative agreement between the model results and the data, the simulated changes were still insufficient, perhaps due to the lack of ocean-surface feedbacks. (orig.) With 8 figs., 4 tabs., 80 refs.

  8. Modeling the behavior of the northern anchovy, Engraulis mordax, as a schooling predator exploiting patchy prey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nonacs, Peter; Smith, Paul E.; Bouskila, Amos; Luttbeg, Barney

    Extensive data sets on the bioenergetics of the northern anchovy, Engraulis mordax, and the patchy food distribution in its natural habitat allow its foraging dynamics to be inferred by modeling using techniques from population biology and behavioral ecology. The behavioral model consistently predicts that E. mordax grows much more slowly than would be expected with a pure, net-energy intake rate maximization strategy. The reduced growth rates could result from the fish avoiding zooplankton patches, where they are under increased predation risk, by swimming slowly in the waters between zooplankton patches. The combinations of growth rates and daily instantaneous mortality rates generated by the behavioral model are internally consistent with a Lefkovitch matrix population model, which includes an early juvenile stage of a stable and stationary population. Several novel and testable predictions are made by the behavioral model, including: (1) anchovies swim very slowly between zooplankton patch encounters; (2) within a patch fish swim very rapidly while searching for prey; and (3) fish often leave zooplankton patches before totally filling their stomachs. Given these encouraging initial results, the behavioral modeling approach appears to be a valuable technique for examining how potential habitat changes due to global warming may affect fish behavior and populations. Several such scenarios are proposed and discussed.

  9. PEATBOG: a biogeochemical model for analyzing coupled carbon and nitrogen dynamics in northern peatlands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Wu

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Elevated nitrogen deposition and climate change alter the vegetation communities and carbon (C and nitrogen (N cycling in peatlands. To address this issue we developed a new process-oriented biogeochemical model (PEATBOG for analyzing coupled carbon and nitrogen dynamics in northern peatlands. The model consists of four submodels, which simulate: (1 daily water table depth and depth profiles of soil moisture, temperature and oxygen levels; (2 competition among three plants functional types (PFTs, production and litter production of plants; (3 decomposition of peat; and (4 production, consumption, diffusion and export of dissolved C and N species in soil water. The model is novel in the integration of the C and N cycles, the explicit spatial resolution belowground, the consistent conceptualization of movement of water and solutes, the incorporation of stoichiometric controls on elemental fluxes and a consistent conceptualization of C and N reactivity in vegetation and soil organic matter. The model was evaluated for the Mer Bleue Bog, near Ottawa, Ontario, with regards to simulation of soil moisture and temperature and the most important processes in the C and N cycles. Model sensitivity was tested for nitrogen input, precipitation, and temperature, and the choices of the most uncertain parameters were justified. A simulation of nitrogen deposition over 40 yr demonstrates the advantages of the PEATBOG model in tracking biogeochemical effects and vegetation change in the ecosystem.

  10. PEATBOG: a biogeochemical model for analyzing coupled carbon and nitrogen dynamics in northern peatlands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Y.; Blodau, C.

    2013-08-01

    Elevated nitrogen deposition and climate change alter the vegetation communities and carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) cycling in peatlands. To address this issue we developed a new process-oriented biogeochemical model (PEATBOG) for analyzing coupled carbon and nitrogen dynamics in northern peatlands. The model consists of four submodels, which simulate: (1) daily water table depth and depth profiles of soil moisture, temperature and oxygen levels; (2) competition among three plants functional types (PFTs), production and litter production of plants; (3) decomposition of peat; and (4) production, consumption, diffusion and export of dissolved C and N species in soil water. The model is novel in the integration of the C and N cycles, the explicit spatial resolution belowground, the consistent conceptualization of movement of water and solutes, the incorporation of stoichiometric controls on elemental fluxes and a consistent conceptualization of C and N reactivity in vegetation and soil organic matter. The model was evaluated for the Mer Bleue Bog, near Ottawa, Ontario, with regards to simulation of soil moisture and temperature and the most important processes in the C and N cycles. Model sensitivity was tested for nitrogen input, precipitation, and temperature, and the choices of the most uncertain parameters were justified. A simulation of nitrogen deposition over 40 yr demonstrates the advantages of the PEATBOG model in tracking biogeochemical effects and vegetation change in the ecosystem.

  11. Assessing the Performance of a Northern Gulf of Mexico Tidal Model Using Satellite Imagery

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephen C. Medeiros

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Tidal harmonic analysis simulations along with simulations spanning four specific historical time periods in 2003 and 2004 were conducted to test the performance of a northern Gulf of Mexico tidal model. A recently developed method for detecting inundated areas based on integrated remotely sensed data (i.e., Radarsat-1, aerial imagery, LiDAR, Landsat 7 ETM+ was applied to assess the performance of the tidal model. The analysis demonstrates the applicability of the method and its agreement with traditional performance assessment techniques such as harmonic resynthesis and water level time series analysis. Based on the flooded/non-flooded coastal areas estimated by the integrated remotely sensed data, the model is able to adequately reproduce the extent of inundation within four sample areas from the coast along the Florida panhandle, correctly identifying areas as wet or dry over 85% of the time. Comparisons of the tidal model inundation to synoptic (point-in-time inundation areas generated from the remotely sensed data generally agree with the results of the traditional performance assessment techniques. Moreover, this approach is able to illustrate the spatial distribution of model inundation accuracy allowing for targeted refinement of model parameters.

  12. Modelling of Black and Organic Carbon Variability in the Northern Hemisphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kurganskiy, Alexander; Nuterman, Roman; Mahura, Alexander; Kaas, Eigil; Baklanov, Alexander; Hansen Sass, Bent

    2016-04-01

    Black and organic carbon as short-lived climate forcers have influence on air quality and climate in Northern Europe and Arctic. Atmospheric dispersion, deposition and transport of these climate forcers from remote sources is especially difficult to model in Arctic regions due to complexity of meteorological and chemical processes and uncertainties of emissions. In our study, the online integrated meteorology-chemistry/aerosols model Enviro-HIRLAM (Environment - High Resolution Limited Area Model) was employed for evaluating spatio-temporal variability of black and organic carbon aerosols in atmospheric composition in the Northern Hemisphere regions. The model setup included horizontal resolution of 0.72 deg, time step of 450 sec, 6 h meteorological surface data assimilation, 1 month spin-up; and model was run for the full year of 2010. Emissions included anthropogenic (ECLIPSE), shipping (AU_RCP&FMI), wildfires (IS4FIRES), and interactive sea salt, dust and DMS. Meteorological (from IFS at 0.75 deg) and chemical (from MACC Reanalysis at 1.125 deg) boundary conditions were obtained from ECMWF. Annual and month-to-month variability of mean concentration, accumulated dry/wet and total deposition fluxes is analyzed for the model domain and selected European and Arctic observation sites. Modelled and observed BC daily mean concentrations during January and July showed fair-good correlation (0.31-0.64) for stations in Germany, UK and Italy; however, for Arctic stations (Tiksi, Russia and Zeppelin, Norway) the correlations were negative in January, but higher correlations and positive (0.2-0.7) in July. For OC, it varied 0.45-0.67 in January and 0.19-0.57 in July. On seasonal scale, during both summer and winter seasons the BC and OC correlations are positive and higher for European stations compared with Arctic. On annual scale, both BC and OC correlations are positive and vary between 0.4-0.6 for European stations, and these are smoothed to negligible values for Arctic

  13. A global climate model based, Bayesian climate projection for northern extra-tropical land areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arzhanov, Maxim M.; Eliseev, Alexey V.; Mokhov, Igor I.

    2012-04-01

    Projections with contemporary global climate models (GCMs) still markedly deviate from each other on magnitude of climate changes, in particular, in middle to subpolar latitudes. In this work, a climate projection based on the ensemble of 18 CMIP3 GCM models forced by SRES A1B scenario is performed for the northern extra-tropical land. To assess the change of soil state, off-line simulations are performed with the Deep Soil Simulator (DSS) developed at the A.M.Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences (IAP RAS). This model is forced by output of the above-mentioned GCM simulations. Ensemble mean and ensemble standard deviation for any variable are calculated by using Bayesian averaging which allows to enhance a contribution from more realistic models and diminish that from less realistic models. As a result, uncertainty for soil and permafrost variables become substantially narrower. The Bayesian weights for each model are calculated based on their performance for the present-day surface air temperature (SAT) and permafrost distributions, and for SAT trend during the 20th century. The results, except for intra-ensemble standard deviations, are not very sensitive to particular choice of Bayesian traits. Averaged over the northern extra-tropical land, annual mean surface air temperature in the ensemble increases by 3.1 ± 1.4 K (ensemble mean±intra-ensemble standard deviation) during the 21st century. Precipitation robustly increases in the pan-Arctic and decreases in the Mediterranean/Black Sea region. The models agree on near-surface permafrost degradation during the 21st century. The area underlain by near-surface permafrost decreases from the contemporary value 20 ± 3 mln sq. km to 14 ± 3 mln sq. km in the late 21st century. This leads to risk for geocryological hazard due to soil subsidence. This risk is classified as moderate to high in the southern and western parts of Siberia and Tibet in Eurasia, and in the region from Alaska

  14. Northern Watershed Change, Modeled Permafrost Temperatures in the Yukon River Watershed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bryan, R.; Hinzman, L. D.

    2009-12-01

    Changes in the terrestrial hydrologic cycle in northern watersheds can be seen through permafrost warming. Furthermore, vegetation shifts occur with climate changes coupled with permafrost degradation. Permafrost warming is resultant from warming air temperatures and the collection of buffers between the atmosphere and the cryosphere: the active layer, snow, and vegetation. Our modeling methods combine a meteorological model with a permafrost temperature model in 1 km2 resolution in the 847,642 km2 Yukon River Watershed. The MicroMet model is a quasi-physically based model developed in 2006 by Liston & Elder to spatially interpolate irregularly spaced point meteorological data using known temperature-elevation, wind-topography, humidity-cloudiness, and radiation-cloud-topography relationships. We call on 1997-2007 data from 104 Integrated Surface Data meteorological stations and 100 grid points in a 5 best models ensemble A1B 2090-2100 projection. The Temperature at the Top of the Permafrost (TTOP) model is a numerical model for estimating the thermal state of permafrost. This model is attributed to Smith & Riseborough, 1996. TTOP relates more readily available near surface temperatures to temperatures at the depth of seasonal variation using user-defined landcover n-factors (to relate air temperature to soil surface temperature) and soil thermal conductivities (to simulate the propagation of heat through the active layer). TTOP simulates warm top of the permafrost temperatures for high soil thermal conductivity, land cover with high n-factor, and a high number of thawing degree-days/ year. Here we compare the present and future thermal stability of permafrost in the Yukon River Watershed.

  15. Gas transport in firn: multiple-tracer characterisation and model intercomparison for NEEM, Northern Greenland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Buizert

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Compacted snow (firn preserves a continuous record of atmospheric composition up to a century back in time. Firn air transport modeling is essential for interpretation of firn gas records. Each site needs to be characterised individually through a tuning procedure, in which the effective diffusivity at each depth is adjusted to optimise the agreement between modeled and measured mixing ratios of a selected reference gas (usually CO2. We present the characterisation of the NEEM site, Northern Greenland (77.45° N 51.06° W, where an ensemble of ten reference tracers is used to constrain the diffusivity reconstruction. By analysing uncertainties in both data and the reference gas atmospheric histories, we can objectively assign weights to each of the gases used for the model tuning, and define a root mean square criterion that is minimised in the tuning. Each tracer constrains the firn profile differently through its unique atmospheric history and free air diffusivity, making our multiple-tracer characterisation method a clear improvement over the commonly used single-tracer tuning. Six firn air transport models are tuned to the NEEM site; all models successfully reproduce the data within a 1σ Gaussian distribution. The modern day Δage, i.e. the difference between gas age and ice age, is calculated to be 182 ± 8 yr. We find evidence that diffusivity does not vanish completely in the firn lock-in zone, as is commonly assumed. We further present the first intercomparison study of firn air models, where we introduce diagnostic scenarios designed to probe specific aspects of the model physics. Our results show that there are major differences in the way the models handle advective transport. Furthermore diffusive fractionation of isotopes in the firn is poorly constrained by the models, which has consequences for attempts to reconstruct the isotopic composition of trace gases back in time using firn air and ice core records.

  16. Minimizing the wintertime low bias of Northern Hemisphere carbon monoxide in global model simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stein, Olaf; Schultz, Martin G.; Bouarar, Idir; Clark, Hannah; Huijnen, Vincent; Gaudel, Audrey; George, Maya; Clerbaux, Cathy

    2015-04-01

    Carbon monoxide (CO) is a product of incomplete combustion and is also produced from oxidation of volatile organic compounds (VOC) in the atmosphere. It is of interest as an indirect greenhouse gas and an air pollutant causing health effects and is thus subject to emission restrictions. CO acts as a major sink for the OH radical and as a precursor for tropospheric ozone and affects the oxidizing capacity of the atmosphere as well as regional air quality. Despite the developments in the global modelling of chemistry and of the parameterization of the physical processes, CO concentrations remain underestimated during NH winter by most state-of-the-art chemical transport models. The resulting model bias can in principle originate from either an underestimation of CO sources or an overestimation of its sinks. We address both the role of sources and sinks with a series of MOZART chemistry transport model sensitivity simulations for the year 2008 and compare our results to observational data from ground-based stations, satellite observations, and from MOZAIC tropospheric profile measurements on passenger aircraft. Our base case simulation using the MACCity emission inventory (Granier et al. 2011) underestimates the near-surface Northern Hemispheric CO mixing ratios by more than 20 ppb from December to April with a maximal bias of 40 ppb in January. The bias is strongest for the European region (up to 75 ppb in January). From our sensitivity studies the mismatch between observed and modelled atmospheric CO concentrations can be explained by a combination of the following emission inventory shortcuts: (i) missing anthropogenic wintertime CO emissions from traffic or other combustion processes, (ii) missing anthropogenic VOC emissions, (iii) an exaggerated downward trend in the RCP8.5 scenario underlying the MACCity inventory, (iv) a lack of knowledge about the seasonality of emissions. Deficiencies in the parameterization of the dry deposition velocities can also lead to

  17. On the wintertime low bias of Northern Hemisphere carbon monoxide in global model studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stein, O.; Schultz, M. G.; Bouarar, I.; Clark, H.; Huijnen, V.; Gaudel, A.; George, M.; Clerbaux, C.

    2014-01-01

    The uncertainties in the global budget of carbon monoxide (CO) are assessed to explain causes for the long-standing issue of Northern Hemispheric wintertime underestimation of CO concentrations in global models. With a series of MOZART sensitivity simulations for the year 2008, the impacts from changing a variety of surface sources and sinks were analyzed. The model results were evaluated with monthly averages of surface station observations from the global CO monitoring network as well as with total columns observed from satellites and with vertical profiles from measurements on passenger aircraft. Our basic simulation using MACCity anthropogenic emissions underestimated Northern Hemispheric near-surface CO concentrations on average by more than 20 ppb from December to April with the largest bias over Europe of up to 75 ppb in January. An increase in global biomass burning or biogenic emissions of CO or volatile organic compounds (VOC) is not able to reduce the annual course of the model bias and yields too high concentrations over the Southern Hemisphere. Raising global annual anthropogenic emissions results in overestimations of surface concentrations in most regions all-year-round. Instead, our results indicate that anthropogenic emissions in the MACCity inventory are too low for the industrialized countries during winter and spring. Thus we found it necessary to adjust emissions seasonally with regionally varying scaling factors. Moreover, exchanging the original resistance-type dry deposition scheme with a parameterization for CO uptake by oxidation from soil bacteria and microbes reduced the boreal winter dry deposition fluxes and could partly correct for the model bias. When combining the modified dry deposition scheme with increased wintertime road traffic emissions over Europe and North America (factors up to 4.5 and 2, respectively) we were able to optimize the match to surface observations and to reduce the model bias significantly with respect to the

  18. On the wintertime low bias of Northern Hemisphere carbon monoxide in global model studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. Stein

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The uncertainties in the global budget of carbon monoxide (CO are assessed to explain causes for the long-standing issue of Northern Hemispheric wintertime underestimation of CO concentrations in global models. With a series of MOZART sensitivity simulations for the year 2008, the impacts from changing a variety of surface sources and sinks were analyzed. The model results were evaluated with monthly averages of surface station observations from the global CO monitoring network as well as with total columns observed from satellites and with vertical profiles from measurements on passenger aircraft. Our basic simulation using MACCity anthropogenic emissions underestimated Northern Hemispheric near-surface CO concentrations on average by more than 20 ppb from December to April with the largest bias over Europe of up to 75 ppb in January. An increase in global biomass burning or biogenic emissions of CO or volatile organic compounds (VOC is not able to reduce the annual course of the model bias and yields too high concentrations over the Southern Hemisphere. Raising global annual anthropogenic emissions results in overestimations of surface concentrations in most regions all-year-round. Instead, our results indicate that anthropogenic emissions in the MACCity inventory are too low for the industrialized countries during winter and spring. Thus we found it necessary to adjust emissions seasonally with regionally varying scaling factors. Moreover, exchanging the original resistance-type dry deposition scheme with a parameterization for CO uptake by oxidation from soil bacteria and microbes reduced the boreal winter dry deposition fluxes and could partly correct for the model bias. When combining the modified dry deposition scheme with increased wintertime road traffic emissions over Europe and North America (factors up to 4.5 and 2, respectively we were able to optimize the match to surface observations and to reduce the model bias significantly with

  19. Multiyear predictability of Northern Hemisphere surface air temperature in the Kiel Climate Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Y.; Latif, M.; Park, W.

    2016-08-01

    The multiyear predictability of Northern Hemisphere surface air temperature (SAT) is examined in a multi-millennial control integration of the Kiel Climate Model, a coupled ocean-atmosphere-sea ice general circulation model. A statistical method maximizing average predictability time (APT) is used to identify the most predictable SAT patterns in the model. The two leading APT modes are much localized and the physics are discussed that give rise to the enhanced predictability of SAT in these limited regions. Multiyear SAT predictability exists near the sea ice margin in the North Atlantic and mid-latitude North Pacific sector. Enhanced predictability in the North Atlantic is linked to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and to the sea ice changes. In the North Pacific, the most predictable SAT pattern is characterized by a zonal band in the western and central mid-latitude Pacific. This pattern is linked to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, which drives sea surface temperature anomalies. The temperature anomalies subduct into deeper ocean layers and re-emerge at the sea surface during the following winters, providing multiyear memory. Results obtained from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 ensemble yield similar APT modes. Overall, the results stress the importance of ocean dynamics in enhancing predictability in the atmosphere.

  20. Generation of a mixture model ground-motion prediction equation for Northern Chile

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haendel, A.; Kuehn, N. M.; Scherbaum, F.

    2012-12-01

    observed ground motion data in the region of interest) is then transferring information from other regions to the region where the observations have been produced in a data driven way. The backbone model is learned by comparing the model predictions to observations of the target region. For each observation and each model, the likelihood of an observation given a certain GMPE is calculated. Mixture weights can then be assigned using the expectation maximization (EM) algorithm or Bayesian inference. The new method is used to generate a backbone reference model for Northern Chile, an area for which no dedicated GMPE exists. Strong motion recordings from the target area are used to learn the backbone model from a set of 10 GMPEs developed for different subduction zones of the world. The formation of mixture models is done individually for interface and intraslab type events. The ability of the resulting backbone models to describe ground motions in Northern Chile is then compared to the predictive performance of their constituent models.

  1. PM10 modeling in the Oviedo urban area (Northern Spain) by using multivariate adaptive regression splines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nieto, Paulino José García; Antón, Juan Carlos Álvarez; Vilán, José Antonio Vilán; García-Gonzalo, Esperanza

    2014-10-01

    The aim of this research work is to build a regression model of the particulate matter up to 10 micrometers in size (PM10) by using the multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) technique in the Oviedo urban area (Northern Spain) at local scale. This research work explores the use of a nonparametric regression algorithm known as multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) which has the ability to approximate the relationship between the inputs and outputs, and express the relationship mathematically. In this sense, hazardous air pollutants or toxic air contaminants refer to any substance that may cause or contribute to an increase in mortality or serious illness, or that may pose a present or potential hazard to human health. To accomplish the objective of this study, the experimental dataset of nitrogen oxides (NOx), carbon monoxide (CO), sulfur dioxide (SO2), ozone (O3) and dust (PM10) were collected over 3 years (2006-2008) and they are used to create a highly nonlinear model of the PM10 in the Oviedo urban nucleus (Northern Spain) based on the MARS technique. One main objective of this model is to obtain a preliminary estimate of the dependence between PM10 pollutant in the Oviedo urban area at local scale. A second aim is to determine the factors with the greatest bearing on air quality with a view to proposing health and lifestyle improvements. The United States National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) establishes the limit values of the main pollutants in the atmosphere in order to ensure the health of healthy people. Firstly, this MARS regression model captures the main perception of statistical learning theory in order to obtain a good prediction of the dependence among the main pollutants in the Oviedo urban area. Secondly, the main advantages of MARS are its capacity to produce simple, easy-to-interpret models, its ability to estimate the contributions of the input variables, and its computational efficiency. Finally, on the basis of

  2. Analyzing Source Apportioned Methane in Northern California During DISCOVER-AQ-CA Using Airborne Measurements and Model Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Matthew S.

    2014-01-01

    This study analyzes source apportioned methane (CH4) emissions and atmospheric concentrations in northern California during the Discover-AQ-CA field campaign using airborne measurement data and model simulations. Source apportioned CH4 emissions from the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR) version 4.2 were applied in the 3-D chemical transport model GEOS-Chem and analyzed using airborne measurements taken as part of the Alpha Jet Atmospheric eXperiment over the San Francisco Bay Area (SFBA) and northern San Joaquin Valley (SJV). During the time period of the Discover-AQ-CA field campaign EDGAR inventory CH4 emissions were 5.30 Gg/day (Gg 1.0 109 grams) (equating to 1.9 103 Gg/yr) for all of California. According to EDGAR, the SFBA and northern SJV region contributes 30 of total emissions from California. Source apportionment analysis during this study shows that CH4 concentrations over this area of northern California are largely influenced by global emissions from wetlands and local/global emissions from gas and oil production and distribution, waste treatment processes, and livestock management. Model simulations, using EDGAR emissions, suggest that the model under-estimates CH4 concentrations in northern California (average normalized mean bias (NMB) -5 and linear regression slope 0.25). The largest negative biases in the model were calculated on days when hot spots of local emission sources were measured and atmospheric CH4 concentrations reached values 3.0 parts per million (model NMB -10). Sensitivity emission studies conducted during this research suggest that local emissions of CH4 from livestock management processes are likely the primary source of the negative model bias. These results indicate that a variety, and larger quantity, of measurement data needs to be obtained and additional research is necessary to better quantify source apportioned CH4 emissions in California and further the understanding of the physical processes

  3. Gas transport in firn: multiple-tracer characterisation and model intercomparison for NEEM, Northern Greenland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Buizert

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Air was sampled from the porous firn layer at the NEEM site in Northern Greenland. We use an ensemble of ten reference tracers of known atmospheric history to characterise the transport properties of the site. By analysing uncertainties in both data and the reference gas atmospheric histories, we can objectively assign weights to each of the gases used for the depth-diffusivity reconstruction. We define an objective root mean square criterion that is minimised in the model tuning procedure. Each tracer constrains the firn profile differently through its unique atmospheric history and free air diffusivity, making our multiple-tracer characterisation method a clear improvement over the commonly used single-tracer tuning. Six firn air transport models are tuned to the NEEM site; all models successfully reproduce the data within a 1σ Gaussian distribution. A comparison between two replicate boreholes drilled 64 m apart shows differences in measured mixing ratio profiles that exceed the experimental error. We find evidence that diffusivity does not vanish completely in the lock-in zone, as is commonly assumed. The ice age- gas age difference (Δage at the firn-ice transition is calculated to be 182+3−9 yr. We further present the first intercomparison study of firn air models, where we introduce diagnostic scenarios designed to probe specific aspects of the model physics. Our results show that there are major differences in the way the models handle advective transport. Furthermore, diffusive fractionation of isotopes in the firn is poorly constrained by the models, which has consequences for attempts to reconstruct the isotopic composition of trace gases back in time using firn air and ice core records.

  4. A propagation model for the internal solitary waves in the northern South China Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cai, Shuqun; Xie, Jieshuo

    2010-12-01

    A two-dimensional, regularized long-wave equation model is developed to study the dynamic mechanisms of the propagation and evolution of the internal solitary waves (ISWs) in the northern South China Sea (SCS). It is shown that the bottom topography would cause the polarity reversal of ISWs, the change of the local wave crestline shape, and some diminution in wave amplitude; even if the ISWs are induced at the small sill channel along the Luzon Strait, they could propagate westward with their crestlines covering a large area in the latitudinal direction in the northern SCS. When there are two trains of ISWs propagating from the same source site with a time lag but different amplitudes of initial solitons, the latter train of ISWs with a larger amplitude may catch then swallow the former one with a smaller amplitude, and the wave amplitude of the merged ISW train decreases while the wave number increases. When there are two trains of ISWs propagating from the different source sites at the same time with the same amplitude of initial solitons, the crestlines of the two ISW trains may meet and a new leading soliton is induced at the connection point. Once the ISW trains collide with the island, before the island, a weak ISW train is reflected; behind the island, the former crestlines of the ISW train are torn by the island into two new trains, which may reconnect after passing around the island. The propagation direction, the wave amplitude, and the reconnection point of the new merged ISW train behind the island depend on the relative orientation of the original soliton source site to the island.

  5. Can a coupled meteorology–chemistry model reproduce the historical trend in aerosol direct radiative effects over the Northern Hemisphere?

    Science.gov (United States)

    The ability of a coupled meteorology–chemistry model, i.e., Weather Research and Forecast and Community Multiscale Air Quality (WRF-CMAQ), to reproduce the historical trend in aerosol optical depth (AOD) and clear-sky shortwave radiation (SWR) over the Northern Hemisphere h...

  6. Can a coupled meteorology–chemistry model reproduce the historical trend in aerosol direct radiative effects over the Northern Hemisphere?

    Science.gov (United States)

    The ability of a coupled meteorology–chemistry model, i.e., Weather Research and Forecast and Community Multiscale Air Quality (WRF-CMAQ), to reproduce the historical trend in aerosol optical depth (AOD) and clear-sky shortwave radiation (SWR) over the Northern Hemisphere h...

  7. Mean Climatic Characteristics in High Northern Latitudes in an Ocean-Sea Ice-Atmosphere Coupled Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    刘喜迎; 张学洪; 俞永强; 宇如聪

    2004-01-01

    Emphasizing the model's ability in mean climate reproduction in high northern latitudes, results from an ocean-sea ice-atmosphere coupled model are analyzed. It is shown that the coupled model can simulate the main characteristics of annual mean global sea surface temperature and sea level pressure well, but the extent of ice coverage produced in the Southern Hemisphere is not large enough. The main distribution characteristics of simulated sea level pressure and temperature at 850 hPa in high northern latitudes agree well with their counterparts in the NCEP reanalysis dataset, and the model can reproduce the Arctic Oscillation (AO) mode successfully. The simulated seasonal variation of sea ice in the Northern Hemisphere is rational and its main distribution features in winter agree well with those from observations.But the ice concentration in the sea ice edge area close to the Eurasian continent in the inner Arctic Ocean is much larger than the observation. There are significant interannual variation signals in the simulated sea ice concentration in winter in high northern latitudes and the most significant area lies in the Greenland Sea, followed by the Barents Sea. All of these features agree well with the results from observations.

  8. A community-based thalassemia prevention and control model in northern Thailand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pansatiankul, Boonchian; Saisorn, Supachai

    2003-08-01

    To describe a community-based model for prevention and control of thalassemias and haemoglobinopathies in northern Thailand. Operational research composed of two components. First, a model to test whether thalassemic cases and carriers could be retrospectively detected from school children. Second, a model for prevention of prospective cases of thalassemic babies among pregnant women. Phan District of Chiang Rai Province in northern Thailand. Component one: 5,617 preschool children and 21,123 school children were screened during May and July 1997. Component two: 256 pregnant women, 16 weeks or less gestation were screened during January and December 1997. Component one: Sub-district public health officers and school teachers were trained to use pictures and simple clinical examination to detect suspected thalassemics among preschool and school children. Suspected cases were then referred for further clinical examination and blood testing. Blood smear examination was done at the Phan Community Hospital but Hb typing lusing on electrophoresis was done at the provincial hospital. The cellulose acetate was sent for re-reading at the Department of Medical Sciences. Component two: Osmotic fragility (OF) and dichlorophenol-indolephenol (DCIP) tests were abol in pregnant women (thalassemia diseases. Their parents were counseled. Forty couples were determined to need some form of family planning and 39 (97.5%) accepted. In Component two: 256 pregnant women were screened and 56 were found to be carriers. Only 45 husbands could be located and Hb typed. Five couples were determined to require prenatal diagnosis (PND). One happened to undergo therapeutic abortion because of HIV infection in the mother without PND. Of the four who underwent PND, one was found to have a fetus with major thalassemia. However, this couple refused therapeutic abortion because of religious reasons. This study combined both prospective and retrospective approaches and can be considered successful

  9. Quantitative model of trophic interactions in Beibu Gulf ecosystem in the northern South China Sea

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    CHEN Zuozhi; QIU Yongsong; JIA Xiaoping

    2006-01-01

    A mass-balanced model was constructed to determine the flow-energy in a community of fishes and invertebrates in the Beibu Gulf,northern South China Sea using Ecopath and Ecosim software. Input parameters were taken from the literature, except for the biomass of fish groups which was obtained from trawl surveys during October 1997 to May 1999 in the study area. The model consisted of 16 functional groups (boxes), including one marine mammal and seabirds, each representing organisms with a similar role in the food web, and only covered the main trophic flow in the Beibu Gulf ecosystem. The results showed that the food web of Beibu Gulf was dominated by the detrital path and benthic invertebrates played a significant role in transferring energy from the detritus to higher trophic levels; phytoplankton was a primary producer and most utilized as a food source. Fractional trophic levels ranged from 1.0 to 4.08 with marine mammals occupying the highest trophic level. Using network analysis, the system network was mapped into a linear food chain and six discrete trophic levels were found with a mean transfer efficiency of 16.7% from the detritus, 16.2% from the primary producer within the ecosystem. The biomass density of the commercially utilized species estimated by the model is 8.46 t/km2, only 0.48% of the net primary production.

  10. Modelling Growth of Juvenile Crown-of-Thorns Starfish on the Northern Great Barrier Reef

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jennifer Wilmes

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The corallivorous crown-of-thorns starfish (Acanthaster spp. is a major cause of coral mortality on Indo-Pacific reefs. Despite considerable research into the biology of crown-of-thorns starfish, our understanding of the early post-settlement life stage has been hindered by the small size and cryptic nature of recently settled individuals. Most growth rates are derived from either laboratory studies or field studies conducted in Fiji and Japan. The Great Barrier Reef (GBR is currently experiencing its fourth recorded outbreak and population models to inform the progression of outbreaks lack critical growth rates of early life history stages. High numbers of 0+ year juveniles (n = 3532 were measured during extensive surveys of 64 reefs on the northern GBR between May and December 2015. An exponential growth model was fitted to the size measurement data to estimate monthly ranges of growth rates for 0+ year juveniles. Estimated growth rates varied considerably and increased with age (e.g., 0.028–0.041 mm·day−1 for one-month-old juveniles versus 0.108–0.216 mm·day−1 for twelve-month-old juveniles. This pioneering study of 0+ year juveniles on the GBR will inform population models and form the basis for more rigorous ongoing research to understand the fate of newly settled Acanthaster spp.

  11. Using Remote Sensing Data to Parameterize Ice Jam Modeling for a Northern Inland Delta

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fan Zhang

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available The Slave River is a northern river in Canada, with ice being an important component of its flow regime for at least half of the year. During the spring breakup period, ice jams and ice-jam flooding can occur in the Slave River Delta, which is of benefit for the replenishment of moisture and sediment required to maintain the ecological integrity of the delta. To better understand the ice jam processes that lead to flooding, as well as the replenishment of the delta, the one-dimensional hydraulic river ice model RIVICE was implemented to simulate and explore ice jam formation in the Slave River Delta. Incoming ice volume, a crucial input parameter for RIVICE, was determined by the novel approach of using MODIS space-born remote sensing imagery. Space-borne and air-borne remote sensing data were used to parameterize the upstream ice volume available for ice jamming. Gauged data was used to complement modeling calibration and validation. HEC-RAS, another one-dimensional hydrodynamic model, was used to determine ice volumes required for equilibrium jams and the upper limit of ice volume that a jam can sustain, as well as being used as a threshold for the volumes estimated by the dynamic ice jam simulations using RIVICE. Parameter sensitivity analysis shows that morphological and hydraulic properties have great impacts on the ice jam length and water depth in the Slave River Delta.

  12. Improving the dynamics of northern vegetation in the ORCHIDEE ecosystem model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Zhu

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Processes that describe the distribution of vegetation and ecosystem succession after disturbance are an important component of dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs. The vegetation dynamics module (ORC-VD within the process-based ecosystem model ORCHIDEE (Organizing Carbon and Hydrology in Dynamic Ecosystems has not been updated and evaluated since many years and does not match the progress in modeling the rest of the physical and biogeochemical processes. Therefore, ORC-VD is known to produce unrealistic results. This study presents a new parameterization of ORC-VD for mid-to-high latitude regions in the Northern Hemisphere, including processes that influence the existence, mortality and competition between tree functional types. A new set of metrics is also proposed to quantify the performance of ORC-VD, using up to five different datasets of satellite land cover, forest biomass from remote sensing and inventories, a data-driven estimate of gross primary productivity (GPP and two gridded datasets of soil organic carbon content. The scoring of ORC-VD derived from these metrics integrates uncertainties in the observational datasets. This multi-dataset evaluation framework is a generic method that could be applied to the evaluation of other DGVM models. The results of the original ORC-VD published in 2005 for mid-to-high latitudes and of the new parameterization are evaluated against the above-described datasets. Significant improvements were found in the modeling of the distribution of tree functional types north of 40° N. Three additional sensitivity runs were carried out to separate the impact of different processes or drivers on simulated vegetation distribution, including soil freezing which limits net primary production through soil moisture availability in the root zone, elevated CO2 concentration since 1850, and the return frequency of cold climate extremes causing tree mortality during the spin-up phase of the model.

  13. Modeling co-occurrence of northern spotted and barred owls: accounting for detection probability differences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larissa L. Bailey; Janice A. Reid; Eric D. Forsman; James D. Nichols

    2009-01-01

    Barred owls (Strix valia) have recently expanded their range and now encompass the entire range of the northern spotted owl (Strix ocddentalis caulina). This expansion has led to two important issues of concern for management of northern spotted owls: (1) possible competitive interactions between the two species that could...

  14. On the wintertime low bias of Northern Hemisphere carbon monoxide found in global model simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stein, O.; Schultz, M. G.; Bouarar, I.; Clark, H.; Huijnen, V.; Gaudel, A.; George, M.; Clerbaux, C.

    2014-09-01

    Despite the developments in the global modelling of chemistry and of the parameterization of the physical processes, carbon monoxide (CO) concentrations remain underestimated during Northern Hemisphere (NH) winter by most state-of-the-art chemistry transport models. The consequential model bias can in principle originate from either an underestimation of CO sources or an overestimation of its sinks. We address both the role of surface sources and sinks with a series of MOZART (Model for Ozone And Related Tracers) model sensitivity studies for the year 2008 and compare our results to observational data from ground-based stations, satellite observations, and vertical profiles from measurements on passenger aircraft. In our base case simulation using MACCity (Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate project) anthropogenic emissions, the near-surface CO mixing ratios are underestimated in the Northern Hemisphere by more than 20 ppb from December to April, with the largest bias of up to 75 ppb over Europe in January. An increase in global biomass burning or biogenic emissions of CO or volatile organic compounds (VOCs) is not able to reduce the annual course of the model bias and yields concentrations over the Southern Hemisphere which are too high. Raising global annual anthropogenic emissions with a simple scaling factor results in overestimations of surface mixing ratios in most regions all year round. Instead, our results indicate that anthropogenic CO and, possibly, VOC emissions in the MACCity inventory are too low for the industrialized countries only during winter and spring. Reasonable agreement with observations can only be achieved if the CO emissions are adjusted seasonally with regionally varying scaling factors. A part of the model bias could also be eliminated by exchanging the original resistance-type dry deposition scheme with a parameterization for CO uptake by oxidation from soil bacteria and microbes, which reduces the boreal winter dry

  15. Intercomparison of the northern hemisphere winter mid-latitude atmospheric variability of the IPCC models

    CERN Document Server

    Lucarini, V; Dell'Aquila, A; Ruti, P M; Speranza, A; Aquila, Alessandro Dell'; Calmanti, Sandro; Lucarini, Valerio; Ruti, Paolo M.; Speranza, Antonio

    2006-01-01

    We compare, for the overlapping time frame 1962-2000, the estimate of the northern hemisphere (NH) mid-latitude winter atmospheric variability within the XX century simulations of 17 global climate models (GCMs) included in the IPCC-4AR with the NCEP and ECMWF reanalyses. We compute the Hayashi spectra of the 500hPa geopotential height fields and introduce an integral measure of the variability observed in the NH on different spectral sub-domains. Only two high-resolution GCMs have a good agreement with reanalyses. Large biases, in most cases larger than 20%, are found between the wave climatologies of most GCMs and the reanalyses, with a relative span of around 50%. The travelling baroclinic waves are usually overestimated, while the planetary waves are usually underestimated, in agreement with previous studies performed on global weather forecasting models. When comparing the results of various versions of similar GCMs, it is clear that in some cases the vertical resolution of the atmosphere and, somewhat u...

  16. WRF-model data assimilation studies of landfalling atmospheric rivers and orographic precipitation over Northern California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eiserloh, Arthur J., Jr.

    In this study, data assimilation methods of 3-D variational analysis (3DVAR), observation nudging, and analysis (grid) nudging were evaluated in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model for a high-impact, multi-episode landfalling atmospheric river (AR) event for Northern California from 28 November to 3 December, 2012. Eight experiments were designed to explore various combinations of the data assimilation methods and different initial conditions. The short-to-medium range quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) performances were tested for each experiment. Surface observations from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Hydrometeorology Network (HMT), National Weather Service (NWS) radiosondes, and GPS Radio Occultation (RO) vertical profiles from the Constellation Observing System for Meteorology Ionosphere and Climate (COSMIC) satellites were used for assimilation. Model results 2.5 days into the forecast showed slower timing of the 2nd AR episode by a few hours and an underestimation in AR strength. For the entire event forecasts, the non-grid-nudging experiments showed the lowest mean absolute error (MAE) for rainfall accumulations, especially those with 3DVAR. Higher-resolution initial conditions showed more realistic coastal QPFs. Also, a 3-h nudging time interval and time window for observation nudging and 3DVAR, respectively, may be too large for this type of event, and it did not show skill until 60-66 h into the forecast.

  17. Coupling on the northern Cascadia subduction zone from geodetic measurements and physics-based models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bruhat, Lucile; Segall, Paul

    2016-11-01

    Kinematic inversions of GPS and tide gauge/leveling data display an unresolved "gap" between the downdip limit of the locked megathrust and the top of the episodic tremor and slip (ETS) zone in northern Cascadia. This work combines physics-based models of slow-slip events with both mean ETS displacements and decadal-averaged deformation rates to explain the gap and determine how interseismic stress accumulates on the megathrust. While physics-based predictions match the average ETS displacements, they significantly misfit long-term rates, implying faster slip rates within both the gap and the ETS region. Heterogeneous Green's functions or velocity-strengthening friction within the gap cannot explain the decadal rates. The observed uplift rates require steeper gradients in slip rate at the base of the locked zone. We invert for the smallest possible shear stress rate on the creeping megathrust below a locked zone that satisfactorily fits the data. A nonzero shear stress rate within the ETS zone, reaching -2.5 kPa/yr at a depth of 25-30 km, is required. Finally, of all the models that adequately fit both horizontal and vertical data, only those with deep locking depths, around 21 km, significantly improve the fit to the uplift rates.

  18. Assessment of model estimates of land-atmosphere CO2 exchange across Northern Eurasia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rawlins, M. A.; McGuire, A. D.; Kimball, J. S.; Dass, P.; Lawrence, D.; Burke, E.; Chen, X.; Delire, C.; Koven, C.; MacDougall, A.; Peng, S.; Rinke, A.; Saito, K.; Zhang, W.; Alkama, R.; Bohn, T. J.; Ciais, P.; Decharme, B.; Gouttevin, I.; Hajima, T.; Ji, D.; Krinner, G.; Lettenmaier, D. P.; Miller, P.; Moore, J. C.; Smith, B.; Sueyoshi, T.

    2015-07-01

    A warming climate is altering land-atmosphere exchanges of carbon, with a potential for increased vegetation productivity as well as the mobilization of permafrost soil carbon stores. Here we investigate land-atmosphere carbon dioxide (CO2) cycling through analysis of net ecosystem productivity (NEP) and its component fluxes of gross primary productivity (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (ER) and soil carbon residence time, simulated by a set of land surface models (LSMs) over a region spanning the drainage basin of Northern Eurasia. The retrospective simulations cover the period 1960-2009 at 0.5° resolution, which is a scale common among many global carbon and climate model simulations. Model performance benchmarks were drawn from comparisons against both observed CO2 fluxes derived from site-based eddy covariance measurements as well as regional-scale GPP estimates based on satellite remote-sensing data. The site-based comparisons depict a tendency for overestimates in GPP and ER for several of the models, particularly at the two sites to the south. For several models the spatial pattern in GPP explains less than half the variance in the MODIS MOD17 GPP product. Across the models NEP increases by as little as 0.01 to as much as 0.79 g C m-2 yr-2, equivalent to 3 to 340 % of the respective model means, over the analysis period. For the multimodel average the increase is 135 % of the mean from the first to last 10 years of record (1960-1969 vs. 2000-2009), with a weakening CO2 sink over the latter decades. Vegetation net primary productivity increased by 8 to 30 % from the first to last 10 years, contributing to soil carbon storage gains. The range in regional mean NEP among the group is twice the multimodel mean, indicative of the uncertainty in CO2 sink strength. The models simulate that inputs to the soil carbon pool exceeded losses, resulting in a net soil carbon gain amid a decrease in residence time. Our analysis points to improvements in model elements

  19. Assessment of model estimates of land-atmosphere CO2 exchange across northern Eurasia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rawlins, M.A.; McGuire, A.D.; Kimball, J.S.; Dass, P.; Lawrence, D.; Burke, E.; Chen, X.; Delire, C.; Koven, C.; MacDougall, A.; Peng, S.; Rinke, A.; Saito, K.; Zhang, W.; Alkama, R.; Bohn, T. J.; Ciais, P.; Decharme, B.; Gouttevin, I.; Hajima, T.; Ji, D.; Krinner, G.; Lettenmaier, D.P.; Miller, P.; Moore, J.C.; Smith, B.; Sueyoshi, T.

    2015-01-01

    A warming climate is altering land-atmosphere exchanges of carbon, with a potential for increased vegetation productivity as well as the mobilization of permafrost soil carbon stores. Here we investigate land-atmosphere carbon dioxide (CO2) cycling through analysis of net ecosystem productivity (NEP) and its component fluxes of gross primary productivity (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (ER) and soil carbon residence time, simulated by a set of land surface models (LSMs) over a region spanning the drainage basin of Northern Eurasia. The retrospective simulations cover the period 1960–2009 at 0.5° resolution, which is a scale common among many global carbon and climate model simulations. Model performance benchmarks were drawn from comparisons against both observed CO2 fluxes derived from site-based eddy covariance measurements as well as regional-scale GPP estimates based on satellite remote-sensing data. The site-based comparisons depict a tendency for overestimates in GPP and ER for several of the models, particularly at the two sites to the south. For several models the spatial pattern in GPP explains less than half the variance in the MODIS MOD17 GPP product. Across the models NEP increases by as little as 0.01 to as much as 0.79 g C m−2 yr−2, equivalent to 3 to 340 % of the respective model means, over the analysis period. For the multimodel average the increase is 135 % of the mean from the first to last 10 years of record (1960–1969 vs. 2000–2009), with a weakening CO2 sink over the latter decades. Vegetation net primary productivity increased by 8 to 30 % from the first to last 10 years, contributing to soil carbon storage gains. The range in regional mean NEP among the group is twice the multimodel mean, indicative of the uncertainty in CO2 sink strength. The models simulate that inputs to the soil carbon pool exceeded losses, resulting in a net soil carbon gain amid a decrease in residence time. Our analysis points to improvements in model

  20. Modelling the fate of pesticides in paddy rice-fish pond farming system in Northern Vietnam

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lamers, M.; Nguyen, N.; Streck, T.

    2012-04-01

    During the last decade rice production in Vietnam has tremendously increased due to the introduction of new high yield, short duration rice varieties and an increased application of pesticides. Since pesticides are toxic by design, there is a natural concern on the possible impacts of their presence in the environment on human health and environment quality. In North Vietnam, lowland and upland rice fields were identified to be a major non-point source of agrochemical pollution to surface and ground water, which are often directly used for domestic purposes. Field measurements, however, are time consuming, costly and logistical demanding. Hence, quantification, forecast and risk assessment studies are hampered by a limited amount of field data. One potential way to cope with this shortcoming is the use of process-based models. In the present study we developed a model for simulating short-term pesticide dynamics in combined paddy rice field - fish pond farming systems under the specific environmental conditions of south-east Asia. Basic approaches and algorithms to describe the key underlying biogeochemical processes were mainly adopted from the literature to assure that the model reflects the current standard of scientific knowledge and commonly accepted theoretical background. The model was calibrated by means of the Gauss-Marquardt-Levenberg algorithm and validated against measured pesticide concentrations (dimethoate and fenitrothion) during spring and summer rice crop season 2008, respectively, of a paddy field - fish pond system typical for northern Vietnam. First simulation results indicate that our model is capable to simulate the fate of pesticides in such paddy - fish pond farming systems. The model efficiency for the period of calibration, for example, was 0.97 and 0.95 for dimethoate and fenitrothion, respectively. For the period of validation, however, the modeling efficiency slightly decreased to 0.96 and 0.81 for dimethoate and fenitrothion

  1. Northern Hemisphere storminess in the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM1-M

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. M. Knudsen

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Metrics of storm activity in Northern Hemisphere high- and midlatitudes are evaluated from historical output and future projections by the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM1-M coupled global climate model. The European Re-Analysis Interim (ERA-Interim and the Community Climate System Model (CCSM4, a global climate model of the same vintage as NorESM1-M, provide benchmarks for comparison. The focus is on the autumn and early winter (September through December, the period when the ongoing and projected Arctic sea ice retreat is greatest. Storm tracks derived from a vorticity-based algorithm for storm identification are reproduced well by NorESM1-M, although the tracks are somewhat better resolved in the higher-resolution ERA-Interim and CCSM4. The tracks are projected to shift polewards in the future as climate changes under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP forcing scenarios. Cyclones are projected to become generally more intense in the high-latitudes, especially over the Alaskan region, although in some other areas the intensity is projected to decrease. While projected changes in track density are less coherent, there is a general tendency towards less frequent storms in midlatitudes and more frequent storms in high-latitudes, especially the Baffin Bay/Davis Strait region. Autumn precipitation is projected to increase significantly across the entire high-latitudes. Together with the projected increases in storm intensity and sea level and the loss of sea ice, this increase in precipitation implies a greater vulnerability to coastal flooding and erosion, especially in the Alaskan region. The projected changes in storm intensity and precipitation (as well as sea ice and sea level pressure scale generally linearly with the RCP value of the forcing and with time through the 21st century.

  2. Northern Hemisphere storminess in the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM1-M)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knudsen, Erlend M.; Walsh, John E.

    2016-07-01

    Metrics of storm activity in Northern Hemisphere high and midlatitudes are evaluated from historical output and future projections by the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM1-M) coupled global climate model. The European Re-Analysis Interim (ERA-Interim) and the Community Climate System Model (CCSM4), a global climate model of the same vintage as NorESM1-M, provide benchmarks for comparison. The focus is on the autumn and early winter (September through December) - the period when the ongoing and projected Arctic sea ice retreat is the greatest. Storm tracks derived from a vorticity-based algorithm for storm identification are reproduced well by NorESM1-M, although the tracks are somewhat better resolved in the higher-resolution ERA-Interim and CCSM4. The tracks show indications of shifting polewards in the future as climate changes under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) forcing scenarios. Cyclones are projected to become generally more intense in the high latitudes, especially over the Alaskan region, although in some other areas the intensity is projected to decrease. While projected changes in track density are less coherent, there is a general tendency towards less frequent storms in midlatitudes and more frequent storms in high latitudes, especially the Baffin Bay/Davis Strait region in September. Autumn precipitation is projected to increase significantly across the entire high latitudes. Together with the projected loss of sea ice and increases in storm intensity and sea level, this increase in precipitation implies a greater vulnerability to coastal flooding and erosion, especially in the Alaskan region. The projected changes in storm intensity and precipitation (as well as sea ice and sea level pressure) scale generally linearly with the RCP value of the forcing and with time through the 21st century.

  3. Holocene temperature evolution in the Northern Hemisphere high latitudes - Model-data comparisons

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yurui; Renssen, Hans; Seppä, Heikki; Valdes, Paul J.

    2017-10-01

    Heterogeneous Holocene climate evolutions in the Northern Hemisphere high latitudes are primarily determined by orbital-scale insolation variations and melting ice sheets. Previous inter-model comparisons have revealed that multi-simulation consistencies vary spatially. We, therefore, compared multiple model results with proxy-based reconstructions in Fennoscandia, Greenland, north Canada, Alaska and Siberia. Our model-data comparisons reveal that data and models generally agree in Fennoscandia, Greenland and Canada, with the early-Holocene warming and subsequent gradual decrease to 0 ka BP (hereinafter referred as ka). In Fennoscandia, simulations and pollen data suggest a 2 °C warming by 8 ka, but this is less expressed in chironomid data. In Canada, a strong early-Holocene warming is suggested by both the simulations and pollen results. In Greenland, the magnitude of early-Holocene warming ranges from 6 °C in simulations to 8 °C in δ18O-based temperatures. Simulated and reconstructed temperatures are mismatched in Alaska. Pollen data suggest strong early-Holocene warming, while the simulations indicate constant Holocene cooling, and chironomid data show a stable trend. Meanwhile, a high frequency of Alaskan peatland initiation before 9 ka can reflect a either high temperature, high soil moisture or large seasonality. In high-latitude Siberia, although simulations and proxy data depict high Holocene temperatures, these signals are noisy owing to a large spread in the simulations and between pollen and chironomid results. On the whole, the Holocene climate evolutions in most regions (Fennoscandia, Greenland and Canada) are well established and understood, but important questions regarding the Holocene temperature trend and mechanisms remain for Alaska and Siberia.

  4. Performance analysis of coupled and uncoupled hydrodynamic and wave models in the northern Adriatic Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Busca, Claudia; Coluccelli, Alessandro; Valentini, Andrea; Benetazzo, Alvise; Bonaldo, Davide; Bortoluzzi, Giovanni; Carniel, Sandro; Falcieri, Francesco; Paccagnella, Tiziana; Ravaioli, Mariangela; Riminucci, Francesco; Sclavo, Mauro; Russo, Aniello

    2014-05-01

    The complex dynamics of the Adriatic Sea are the result of geographical position, orography and bathymetry, as well as rivers discharge and meteorological conditions that influence, more strongly, the shallow northern part. Such complexity requires a constant monitoring of marine conditions in order to support several activities (marine resources management, naval operations, emergency management, shipping, tourism, as well as scientific ones). Platforms, buoys and mooring located in Adriatic Sea supply almost continuously real time punctual information, which can be spatially extended, with some limitations, by drifters and remote sensing. Operational forecasting systems represent valid tools to provide a complete tridimensional coverage of the area, with a high spatial and temporal resolution. The Hydro-Meteo-Clima Service of the Emilia-Romagna Environmental Agency (ARPA-SIMC, Bologna, Italy) and the Dept. of Life and Environmental Sciences of Università Politecnica delle Marche (DISVA-UNIVPM, Ancona, Italy), in collaboration with the Institute of Marine Science of the National Research Council (ISMAR-CNR, Italy) operationally run several wave and hydrodynamic models on the Adriatic Sea. The main implementations are based on the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS), the wave model Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN), and the coupling of the former two models in the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport (COAWST) system. Horizontal resolutions of the different systems range from the 2 km of AdriaROMS to the 0.5 km of the recently implemented northern Adriatic COAWST. Forecasts are produced every day for the subsequent 72 hour with hourly resolution. All the systems compute the fluxes exchanged through the interface with the atmosphere from the numerical weather prediction system named COSMO-I7, an implementation for Italy of the Consortium for Small-scale Modeling (COSMO) model, at 7 km horizontal resolution. Considering the several operational

  5. A-Priori Rupture Models for Northern California Type-A Faults

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wills, Chris J.; Weldon, Ray J.; Field, Edward H.

    2008-01-01

    This appendix describes how a-priori rupture models were developed for the northern California Type-A faults. As described in the main body of this report, and in Appendix G, ?a-priori? models represent an initial estimate of the rate of single and multi-segment surface ruptures on each fault. Whether or not a given model is moment balanced (i.e., satisfies section slip-rate data) depends on assumptions made regarding the average slip on each segment in each rupture (which in turn depends on the chosen magnitude-area relationship). Therefore, for a given set of assumptions, or branch on the logic tree, the methodology of the present Working Group (WGCEP-2007) is to find a final model that is as close as possible to the a-priori model, in the least squares sense, but that also satisfies slip rate and perhaps other data. This is analogous the WGCEP- 2002 approach of effectively voting on the relative rate of each possible rupture, and then finding the closest moment-balance model (under a more limiting set of assumptions than adopted by the present WGCEP, as described in detail in Appendix G). The 2002 Working Group Report (WCCEP, 2003, referred to here as WGCEP-2002), created segmented earthquake rupture forecast models for all faults in the region, including some that had been designated as Type B faults in the NSHMP, 1996, and one that had not previously been considered. The 2002 National Seismic Hazard Maps used the values from WGCEP-2002 for all the faults in the region, essentially treating all the listed faults as Type A faults. As discussed in Appendix A, the current WGCEP found that there are a number of faults with little or no data on slip-per-event, or dates of previous earthquakes. As a result, the WGCEP recommends that faults with minimal available earthquake recurrence data: the Greenville, Mount Diablo, San Gregorio, Monte Vista-Shannon and Concord-Green Valley be modeled as Type B faults to be consistent with similarly poorly-known faults statewide

  6. A model study of Abrahamsenbreen, a surging glacier in northern Spitsbergen

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Oerlemans

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available The climate sensitivity of Abrahamsenbreen, a 20 km long surge-type glacier in northern Spitsbergen, is studied with a simple glacier model. A scheme to describe the surges is included, which makes it possible to account for the effect of surges on the total mass budget of the glacier. A climate reconstruction back to AD 1300, based on ice-core data from Lomonosovfonna and climate records from Longyearbyen, is used to drive the model. The model is calibrated by requesting that it produces the correct Little Ice Age maximum glacier length and simulates the observed magnitude of the 1978-surge. Abrahamsenbreen is strongly out of balance with the current climate. If climatic conditions will remain as they were for the period 1989–2010, the glacier will ultimately shrink to a length of about 4 km (but this will take hundreds of years. For a climate change scenario involving a 2 m yr−1 rise of the equilibrium line from now onwards, we predict that in the year 2100 Abrahamsenbreen will be about 12 km long. The main effect of a surge is to lower the mean surface elevation and to increase the ablation area, thereby causing a negative perturbation of the mass budget. We found that the occurrence of surges leads to a somewhat stronger retreat of the glacier in a warming climate. Because of the very small bed slope, Abrahamsenbreen is sensitive to small perturbations in the equilibrium-line altitude E. For a decrease of E of only 160 m, the glacier would steadily grow into the Woodfjorddalen until after 2000 years it would reach the Woodfjord and calving could slow down the advance.

  7. Assessment of Satellite-based Precipitation Products (TRMM) in Hydrologic Modeling: Case Studies from Northern Morocco

    Science.gov (United States)

    EL kadiri, R.; Milewski, A.; Durham, M.

    2012-12-01

    Precipitation is the most important forcing parameter in hydrological modeling, yet it is largely unknown in the arid Middle East. We assessed the magnitude, probability of detection, and false alarm rates of various rainfall satellite products (e.g., TRMM, RFE2.0) compared to in situ gauge data (~79 stations) across the Our Er Rbia, Sebou, and Melouya Watersheds in Northern Morocco. Precipitation over the area is relatively high with an average of ~400mm/year according to TRMM (1998-2008). The existing gauges indicate that the average annual precipitation across the Tadla and Coastal Plains region is 260mm/year and 390mm/year across the Atlas Mountains. Following the assessment of satellite products against in situ gauge data, we evaluated the effects (e.g., runoff and recharge amounts) of using satellite driven hydrologic models using SWAT. Specifically, we performed a four-fold exercise: (1) The first stage focused on the analysis of the rainfall products; (2) the second stage involved the construction of a rainfall-runoff model using gauge data; (3) the third stage entailed the calibration of the model against flow gauges and/or dams storage variability, and (4) model simulation using satellite based rainfall products using the calibrated parameters from the initial simulation. Results suggest the TRMM V7 has a much better correlation with the field data over the Oum Er Rbia watershed. The Correlation E (Nash-Suncliffe coefficient) has a positive value of 0.5, while the correlation coefficient of TRMM V6 vs. gauges data is a negative value of -0.25. This first order evaluation of the TRMM V7 shows the new algorithm has partially overcame the underestimation effect in the semi-arid environments. However, more research needs to be done to increase the usability of TRMM V7 in hydrologic models. Low correlations are most likely a result of the following: (1) snow at the high elevations in the Oum Er Rbia watershed, (2) the ocean effect on TRMM measurements along

  8. Measurements and modeling of the volume scattering function in the coastal northern Adriatic Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berthon, Jean-François; Shybanov, Eugeny; Lee, Michael E.-G.; Zibordi, Giuseppe

    2007-08-01

    We performed measurements of the volume scattering function (VSF) between 0.5° and 179° with an angular resolution of 0.3° in the northern Adriatic Sea onboard an oceanographic platform during three different seasons, using the multispectral volume scattering meter (MVSM) instrument. We observed important differences with respect to Petzold's commonly used functions, whereas the Fournier-Forand's analytical formulation provided a rather good description of the measured VSF. The comparison of the derived scattering, bp(λ) and backscattering, bbp(λ) coefficients for particles with the measurements performed with the classical AC-9 and Hydroscat-6 showed agreement to within 20%. The use of an empirical relationship for the derivation of bb(λ) from β(ψ,λ) at ψ=140° was validated for this coastal site although ψ=118° was confirmed to be the most appropriate angle. The low value of the factor used to convert β(ψ,λ) into bb(λ) within the Hydroscat-6 processing partially contributed to the underestimation of bb(λ) with respect to the MVSM. Finally, use of the Kopelevich model together with a measurement of bp(λ) at λ=555 nm allowed us to reconstruct the VSF with average rms percent differences between 8 and 15%.

  9. Estimation model of soil freeze-thaw erosion in Silingco watershed wetland of Northern Tibet.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kong, Bo; Yu, Huan

    2013-01-01

    The freeze-thaw (FT) erosion is a type of soil erosion like water erosion and wind erosion. Limited by many factors, the grading evaluation of soil FT erosion quantities is not well studied. Based on the comprehensive analysis of the evaluation indices of soil FT erosion, we for the first time utilized the sensitivity of microwave remote sensing technology to soil moisture for identification of FT state. We established an estimation model suitable to evaluate the soil FT erosion quantity in Silingco watershed wetland of Northern Tibet using weighted summation method of six impact factors including the annual FT cycle days, average diurnal FT phase-changed water content, average annual precipitation, slope, aspect, and vegetation coverage. Finally, with the support of GIS, we classified soil FT erosion quantity in Silingco watershed wetland. The results showed that soil FT erosion are distributed in broad areas of Silingco watershed wetland. Different soil FT erosions with different intensities have evidently different spatial and geographical distributions.

  10. Modelling Political Support among Women with Political Actors in Northern States

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zaherawati Zakaria

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Problem statement: Women in Asia are making their mark with distinct styles of leadership, but have a long way to go to reach the critical mass needed to level a political playing field that remains much easier for men to take part. Yet far from being included in the decision-making process, women find themselves under-represented in political institutions. Approach: Numerous challenges confront women entering politics. Many feel that Malaysian society is still male dominated and men are threatened by the idea of women holding senior posts. Thus the objective of this study tries to identify the model of political support of women by looking at relationship with political parties in the northern states. The result of findings shows that there is a significant relationship between them. Results: The recommendations were proposed such as women should be more participate in political parties activities from the women wings from the grass-root and women representatives should be given more opportunities in voice their idea as men in political arena. Conclusion: In future research, political parties and government should open widely the platform for women active in politics and give them an opportunity to exercise the political power as men earned in decision-making process.

  11. Modelling regional variability of irrigation requirements due to climate change in Northern Germany.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riediger, Jan; Breckling, Broder; Svoboda, Nikolai; Schröder, Winfried

    2016-01-15

    The question whether global climate change invalidates the efficiency of established land use practice cannot be answered without systemic considerations on a region specific basis. In this context plant water availability and irrigation requirements, respectively, were investigated in Northern Germany. The regions under investigation--Diepholz, Uelzen, Fläming and Oder-Spree--represent a climatic gradient with increasing continentality from West to East. Besides regional climatic variation and climate change, soil conditions and crop management differ on the regional scale. In the model regions, temporal seasonal droughts influence crop success already today, but on different levels of intensity depending mainly on climate conditions. By linking soil water holding capacities, crop management data and calculations of evapotranspiration and precipitation from the climate change scenario RCP 8.5 irrigation requirements for maintaining crop productivity were estimated for the years 1991 to 2070. Results suggest that water requirement for crop irrigation is likely to increase with considerable regional variation. For some of the regions, irrigation requirements might increase to such an extent that the established regional agricultural practice might be hard to retain. Where water availability is limited, agricultural practice, like management and cultivated crop spectrum, has to be changed to deal with the new challenges.

  12. Assessing data assimilation and model boundary error strategies for high resolution ocean model downscaling in the Northern North Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sandvig Mariegaard, Jesper; Huiban, Méven Robin; Tornfeldt Sørensen, Jacob; Andersson, Henrik

    2017-04-01

    . The success of the downscaling is to a large degree determined by the ability to realistically describe and dynamically model the errors on the open boundaries. Three different sizes of downscaling model domains in the Northern North Sea have been examined and two different strategies for modelling the uncertainties on the open Flather boundaries are investigated. The combined downscaling and local data assimilation skill is assessed and the impact on recommended domain size is compared to pure downscaling.

  13. Topobathymetric Model of the Northern Gulf of Mexico, 1888 to 2013

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Accurate, high-resolution elevation information is vital to understanding the highly dynamic Northern Gulf Coast, with Louisiana being the location of North...

  14. Analysing and combining atmospheric general circulation model simulations forced by prescribed SST: northern extratropical response

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Maynard

    2001-06-01

    Full Text Available The ECHAM 3.2 (T21, ECHAM 4 (T30 and LMD (version 6, grid-point resolution with 96 longitudes × 72 latitudes atmospheric general circulation models were integrated through the period 1961 to 1993 forced with the same observed Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs as compiled at the Hadley Centre. Three runs were made for each model starting from different initial conditions. The mid-latitude circulation pattern which maximises the covariance between the simulation and the observations, i.e. the most skilful mode, and the one which maximises the covariance amongst the runs, i.e. the most reproducible mode, is calculated as the leading mode of a Singular Value Decomposition (SVD analysis of observed and simulated Sea Level Pressure (SLP and geopotential height at 500 hPa (Z500 seasonal anomalies. A common response amongst the different models, having different resolution and parametrization should be considered as a more robust atmospheric response to SST than the same response obtained with only one model. A robust skilful mode is found mainly in December-February (DJF, and in June-August (JJA. In DJF, this mode is close to the SST-forced pattern found by Straus and Shukla (2000 over the North Pacific and North America with a wavy out-of-phase between the NE Pacific and the SE US on the one hand and the NE North America on the other. This pattern evolves in a NAO-like pattern over the North Atlantic and Europe (SLP and in a more N-S tripole on the Atlantic and European sector with an out-of-phase between the middle Europe on the one hand and the northern and southern parts on the other (Z500. There are almost no spatial shifts between either field around North America (just a slight eastward shift of the highest absolute heterogeneous correlations for SLP relative to the Z500 ones. The time evolution of the SST-forced mode is moderatly to strongly related to the ENSO/LNSO events but the spread amongst the ensemble of runs is not systematically related

  15. Analysing and combining atmospheric general circulation model simulations forced by prescribed SST. Northern extra tropical response

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moron, V. [Universite' de Provence, UFR des sciences geographiques et de l' amenagement, Aix-en-Provence (France); Navarra, A. [Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Bologna (Italy); Ward, M. N. [University of Oklahoma, Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies, Norman OK (United States); Foland, C. K. [Hadley Center for Climate Prediction and Research, Meteorological Office, Bracknell (United Kingdom); Friederichs, P. [Meteorologisches Institute des Universitaet Bonn, Bonn (Germany); Maynard, K.; Polcher, J. [Paris Universite' Pierre et Marie Curie, Paris (France). Centre Nationale de la Recherche Scientifique, Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique, Paris

    2001-08-01

    The ECHAM 3.2 (T21), ECHAM 4 (T30) and LMD (version 6, grid-point resolution with 96 longitudes x 72 latitudes) atmospheric general circulation models were integrated through the period 1961 to 1993 forced with the same observed Sa Surface Temperatures (SSTs) as compiled at the Hadley Centre. Three runs were made for each model starting from different initial conditions. The mid-latitude circulation pattern which maximises the covariance between the simulation and the observations, i.e. the most skilful mode, and the one which maximises the covariance amongst the runs, i.e. the most reproducible mode, is calculated as the leading mode of a Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) analysis of observed and simulated Sea Level Pressure (SLP) and geo potential height at 500 hPa (Z500) seasonal anomalies. A common response amongst the different models, having different resolution and parametrization should be considered as a more robust atmospheric response to SST than the sam response obtained with only one model A robust skilful mode is found mainly in December-February (DJF), and in June-August (JJA). In DJF, this mode is close to the SST-forced pattern found by Straus nd Shukla (2000) over the North Pacific and North America with a wavy out-of-phase between the NE Pacific and the SE US on the one hand and the NE North America on the other. This pattern evolves in a NAO-like pattern over the North Atlantic and Europe (SLP) and in a more N-S tripote on the Atlantic and European sector with an out-of-phase between the middle Europe on the one hand and the northern and southern parts on the other (Z500). There are almost no spatial shifts between either field around North America (just a slight eastward shift of the highest absolute heterogenous correlations for SLP relative to the Z500 ones). The time evolution of the SST-forced mode is moderately to strongly related to the ENSO/LNSO events but the spread amongst the ensemble of runs is not systematically related at all to

  16. A multi-scale comparison of modeled and observed seasonal methane emissions in northern wetlands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Xiyan; Riley, William J.; Koven, Charles D.; Billesbach, Dave P.; Chang, Rachel Y.-W.; Commane, Róisín; Euskirchen, Eugénie S.; Hartery, Sean; Harazono, Yoshinobu; Iwata, Hiroki; McDonald, Kyle C.; Miller, Charles E.; Oechel, Walter C.; Poulter, Benjamin; Raz-Yaseef, Naama; Sweeney, Colm; Torn, Margaret; Wofsy, Steven C.; Zhang, Zhen; Zona, Donatella

    2016-09-01

    Wetlands are the largest global natural methane (CH4) source, and emissions between 50 and 70° N latitude contribute 10-30 % to this source. Predictive capability of land models for northern wetland CH4 emissions is still low due to limited site measurements, strong spatial and temporal variability in emissions, and complex hydrological and biogeochemical dynamics. To explore this issue, we compare wetland CH4 emission predictions from the Community Land Model 4.5 (CLM4.5-BGC) with site- to regional-scale observations. A comparison of the CH4 fluxes with eddy flux data highlighted needed changes to the model's estimate of aerenchyma area, which we implemented and tested. The model modification substantially reduced biases in CH4 emissions when compared with CarbonTracker CH4 predictions. CLM4.5 CH4 emission predictions agree well with growing season (May-September) CarbonTracker Alaskan regional-level CH4 predictions and site-level observations. However, CLM4.5 underestimated CH4 emissions in the cold season (October-April). The monthly atmospheric CH4 mole fraction enhancements due to wetland emissions are also assessed using the Weather Research and Forecasting-Stochastic Time-Inverted Lagrangian Transport (WRF-STILT) model coupled with daily emissions from CLM4.5 and compared with aircraft CH4 mole fraction measurements from the Carbon in Arctic Reservoirs Vulnerability Experiment (CARVE) campaign. Both the tower and aircraft analyses confirm the underestimate of cold-season CH4 emissions by CLM4.5. The greatest uncertainties in predicting the seasonal CH4 cycle are from the wetland extent, cold-season CH4 production and CH4 transport processes. We recommend more cold-season experimental studies in high-latitude systems, which could improve the understanding and parameterization of ecosystem structure and function during this period. Predicted CH4 emissions remain uncertain, but we show here that benchmarking against observations across spatial scales can

  17. Hydrological Modeling in Northern Tunisia with Regional Climate Model Outputs: Performance Evaluation and Bias-Correction in Present Climate Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Asma Foughali

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available This work aims to evaluate the performance of a hydrological balance model in a watershed located in northern Tunisia (wadi Sejnane, 378 km2 in present climate conditions using input variables provided by four regional climate models. A modified version (MBBH of the lumped and single layer surface model BBH (Bucket with Bottom Hole model, in which pedo-transfer parameters estimated using watershed physiographic characteristics are introduced is adopted to simulate the water balance components. Only two parameters representing respectively the water retention capacity of the soil and the vegetation resistance to evapotranspiration are calibrated using rainfall-runoff data. The evaluation criterions for the MBBH model calibration are: relative bias, mean square error and the ratio of mean actual evapotranspiration to mean potential evapotranspiration. Daily air temperature, rainfall and runoff observations are available from 1960 to 1984. The period 1960–1971 is selected for calibration while the period 1972–1984 is chosen for validation. Air temperature and precipitation series are provided by four regional climate models (DMI, ARP, SMH and ICT from the European program ENSEMBLES, forced by two global climate models (GCM: ECHAM and ARPEGE. The regional climate model outputs (precipitation and air temperature are compared to the observations in terms of statistical distribution. The analysis was performed at the seasonal scale for precipitation. We found out that RCM precipitation must be corrected before being introduced as MBBH inputs. Thus, a non-parametric quantile-quantile bias correction method together with a dry day correction is employed. Finally, simulated runoff generated using corrected precipitation from the regional climate model SMH is found the most acceptable by comparison with runoff simulated using observed precipitation data, to reproduce the temporal variability of mean monthly runoff. The SMH model is the most accurate to

  18. Northern glacial refugia and altitudinal niche divergence shape genome-wide differentiation in the emerging plant model Arabidopsis arenosa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kolář, Filip; Fuxová, Gabriela; Záveská, Eliška; Nagano, Atsushi J; Hyklová, Lucie; Lučanová, Magdalena; Kudoh, Hiroshi; Marhold, Karol

    2016-08-01

    Quaternary climatic oscillations profoundly impacted temperate biodiversity. For many diverse yet undersampled areas, however, the consequences of this impact are still poorly known. In Europe, particular uncertainty surrounds the role of Balkans, a major hotspot of European diversity, in postglacial recolonization of more northerly areas, and the Carpathians, a debatable candidate for a northern 'cryptic' glacial refugium. Using genome-wide SNPs and microsatellites, we examined how the interplay of historical processes and niche shifts structured genetic diversity of diploid Arabidopsis arenosa, a little-known member of the plant model genus that occupies a wide niche range from sea level to alpine peaks across eastern temperate Europe. While the northern Balkans hosted one isolated endemic lineage, most of the genetic diversity was concentrated further north in the Pannonian Basin and the Carpathians, where it likely survived the last glaciation in northern refugia. Finally, a distinct postglacial environment in northern Europe was colonized by populations of admixed origin from the two Carpathian lineages. Niche differentiation along altitude-related bioclimatic gradients was the main trend in the phylogeny of A. arenosa. The most prominent niche shifts, however, characterized genetically only slightly divergent populations that expanded into narrowly defined alpine and northern coastal postglacial environments. Our study highlights the role of eastern central European mountains not only as refugia for unique temperate diversity but also sources for postglacial expansion into novel high-altitude and high-latitude niches. Knowledge of distinct genetic substructure of diploid A. arenosa also opens new opportunities for follow-up studies of this emerging model of evolutionary biology.

  19. Comprehensive Model of Jumbo Squid Dosidicus gigas Trophic Ecology in the Northern Humboldt Current System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alegre, Ana; Ménard, Frédéric; Tafur, Ricardo; Espinoza, Pepe; Argüelles, Juan; Maehara, Víctor; Flores, Oswaldo; Simier, Monique; Bertrand, Arnaud

    2014-01-01

    The jumbo squid Dosidicus gigas plays an important role in marine food webs both as predator and prey. We investigated the ontogenetic and spatiotemporal variability of the diet composition of jumbo squid in the northern Humboldt Current system. For that purpose we applied several statistical methods to an extensive dataset of 3,618 jumbo squid non empty stomachs collected off Peru from 2004 to 2011. A total of 55 prey taxa was identified that we aggregated into eleven groups. Our results evidenced a large variability in prey composition as already observed in other systems. However, our data do not support the hypothesis that jumbo squids select the most abundant or energetic taxon in a prey assemblage, neglecting the other available prey. Indeed, multinomial model predictions showed that stomach fullness increased with the number of prey taxa, while most stomachs with low contents contained one or two prey taxa only. Our results therefore question the common hypothesis that predators seek locally dense aggregations of monospecific prey. In addition D. gigas consumes very few anchovy Engraulis ringens in Peru, whereas a tremendous biomass of anchovy is potentially available. It seems that D. gigas cannot reach the oxygen unsaturated waters very close to the coast, where the bulk of anchovy occurs. Indeed, even if jumbo squid can forage in hypoxic deep waters during the day, surface normoxic waters are then required to recover its maintenance respiration (or energy?). Oxygen concentration could thus limit the co-occurrence of both species and then preclude predator-prey interactions. Finally we propose a conceptual model illustrating the opportunistic foraging behaviour of jumbo squid impacted by ontogenetic migration and potentially constrained by oxygen saturation in surface waters. PMID:24465788

  20. Quantification of Modeled Streamflow under Climate Change over the Flint River Watershed in Northern Alabama

    Science.gov (United States)

    Acharya, A.; Tadesse, W.; Lemke, D.; Subedi, S.

    2015-12-01

    This study is carried out to quantify the impacts of climate change and land use change on water availability over the Flint River watershed (FRW) located in the wheeler lake watershed in Northern Alabama. The FRW directly drains into the Tennessee River, which is a major source of water supply for the Southern States. The observed precipitation and temperature data are obtained from the Alabama Mesonet Stations which are also a part of National Resources Conservation Service (USDA NRCS) Soil Climate Analysis Network (SCAN). The GCM simulated climate data are obtained from the WCRP CMIP5 ensemble that consists of 234 downscaled climate projections from four emission scenarios and 37 GCMs. The hydrologic model SWAT is calibrated and validated for a period of 2004 to 2014, based on daily meteorological forcing and monthly streamflow data for the FRW. A total of 15 parameters that directly influences the surface/base flow and basin response are selected and calibrated. The anticipated change in future climate (2030s, 2050s, 2070s, 2090s) with respect to baseline period (2004-2014/2010s) for each emission scenario are introduced into baseline climate to perturb it to future climate pattern. Various climate scenarios based on future climate are forced into the calibrated SWAT model to quantify future water availability over the basin and compared with the baseline period. This is a part of the Geospatial Education and Research Center (GERC) project and the major research findings from this project will help decision makers in evaluating the combined impacts of climate change and land use change on water availability, and developing strategies to sustain available natural resources.

  1. Remote Sensing of Open Water in Northern High Latitudes for use in Hydrologic Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Podest, E.; McDonald, K. C.; Kimball, J.; Maumenee, N.; Bohn, T.; Lettenmaier, D.; Bowling, L.

    2007-12-01

    In the northern high latitudes open water bodies are common landscape features, having a large influence on hydrologic processes as well as surface-atmosphere carbon exchange and associated impacts on global climate. It is therefore of great importance to assess their spatial extent and temporal character in order to improve hydrologic and ecosystem process modeling. Spaceborne synthetic aperture radar (SAR) is an effective tool for this purpose since it is particularly sensitive to surface water and it can monitor large inaccessible areas on a temporal basis regardless of atmospheric conditions or solar illumination. We employ multi-temporal L-band SAR data from the Japanese Earth Remote Sensing Satellite (JERS-1) and ALOS PALSAR to map open water bodies across Alaska and Eurasia. A supervised decision tree-based classification approach was used to generate open water maps. For Alaska, we assembled regional-scale monthly JERS-1 SAR mosaics from data acquired during 1998. Digital elevation model (DEM) terrain and slope information were also employed in the decision tree classifier. These supplementary data aided significantly in improving classification performance in topographically complex regions where radar shadowing was prevalent. For study regions in Eurasia, PALSAR data was used in conjunction with JERS-1 imagery to map spatial patterns and seasonal variability in open water characteristics over selected study basins. These results were examined in relation to regional topographic and land cover characteristics. Classification results were also evaluated relative to other open water and land cover classification maps derived from Landsat, AVHRR, MODIS and SRTM. This work was carried out at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology; at the University of Montana; at the University of Washington; and at Purdue University under contract with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration.

  2. Comprehensive model of Jumbo squid Dosidicus gigas trophic ecology in the Northern Humboldt current system.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana Alegre

    Full Text Available The jumbo squid Dosidicus gigas plays an important role in marine food webs both as predator and prey. We investigated the ontogenetic and spatiotemporal variability of the diet composition of jumbo squid in the northern Humboldt Current system. For that purpose we applied several statistical methods to an extensive dataset of 3,618 jumbo squid non empty stomachs collected off Peru from 2004 to 2011. A total of 55 prey taxa was identified that we aggregated into eleven groups. Our results evidenced a large variability in prey composition as already observed in other systems. However, our data do not support the hypothesis that jumbo squids select the most abundant or energetic taxon in a prey assemblage, neglecting the other available prey. Indeed, multinomial model predictions showed that stomach fullness increased with the number of prey taxa, while most stomachs with low contents contained one or two prey taxa only. Our results therefore question the common hypothesis that predators seek locally dense aggregations of monospecific prey. In addition D. gigas consumes very few anchovy Engraulis ringens in Peru, whereas a tremendous biomass of anchovy is potentially available. It seems that D. gigas cannot reach the oxygen unsaturated waters very close to the coast, where the bulk of anchovy occurs. Indeed, even if jumbo squid can forage in hypoxic deep waters during the day, surface normoxic waters are then required to recover its maintenance respiration (or energy?. Oxygen concentration could thus limit the co-occurrence of both species and then preclude predator-prey interactions. Finally we propose a conceptual model illustrating the opportunistic foraging behaviour of jumbo squid impacted by ontogenetic migration and potentially constrained by oxygen saturation in surface waters.

  3. Comprehensive model of Jumbo squid Dosidicus gigas trophic ecology in the Northern Humboldt current system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alegre, Ana; Ménard, Frédéric; Tafur, Ricardo; Espinoza, Pepe; Argüelles, Juan; Maehara, Víctor; Flores, Oswaldo; Simier, Monique; Bertrand, Arnaud

    2014-01-01

    The jumbo squid Dosidicus gigas plays an important role in marine food webs both as predator and prey. We investigated the ontogenetic and spatiotemporal variability of the diet composition of jumbo squid in the northern Humboldt Current system. For that purpose we applied several statistical methods to an extensive dataset of 3,618 jumbo squid non empty stomachs collected off Peru from 2004 to 2011. A total of 55 prey taxa was identified that we aggregated into eleven groups. Our results evidenced a large variability in prey composition as already observed in other systems. However, our data do not support the hypothesis that jumbo squids select the most abundant or energetic taxon in a prey assemblage, neglecting the other available prey. Indeed, multinomial model predictions showed that stomach fullness increased with the number of prey taxa, while most stomachs with low contents contained one or two prey taxa only. Our results therefore question the common hypothesis that predators seek locally dense aggregations of monospecific prey. In addition D. gigas consumes very few anchovy Engraulis ringens in Peru, whereas a tremendous biomass of anchovy is potentially available. It seems that D. gigas cannot reach the oxygen unsaturated waters very close to the coast, where the bulk of anchovy occurs. Indeed, even if jumbo squid can forage in hypoxic deep waters during the day, surface normoxic waters are then required to recover its maintenance respiration (or energy?). Oxygen concentration could thus limit the co-occurrence of both species and then preclude predator-prey interactions. Finally we propose a conceptual model illustrating the opportunistic foraging behaviour of jumbo squid impacted by ontogenetic migration and potentially constrained by oxygen saturation in surface waters.

  4. Modelling interception in coastal and montane rainforests in northern Queensland, Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wallace, Jim; McJannet, Dave

    2008-01-01

    SummaryThis paper reports a comparison of measured and modelled interception for three different forest types at six rainforest locations in northern Queensland. The Gash interception model was able to reproduce cumulative interception at the sites accurately, provided an appropriate value of canopy storage capacity ( S) was used, 2.0-3.6 mm. These values are significantly higher than S values generally reported in other rainforest studies (˜1 mm) and the reason may be that Australian rainforests contain many epiphytes and mosses, which can trap significant quantities of water within the canopy. There is also some evidence of a seasonal variation in S and wet canopy evaporation rate ( E), both being lower in the dry season than the wet season. However, although the rainfall rate ( R), S and E all affect the seasonal value of interception, the changes in these three parameters tend to compensate and so the biggest factor affecting seasonal variations in interception is the number of small storms. The consequence of this is that it is still possible to get good estimates of seasonal and annual interception using R, S and E values that are fixed for the entire year. Values of E fell in the range 0.35-0.81 mm h -1, which are 1.4-9 times the concurrent rates estimated using the Penman-Monteith equation. This implies that either our rainforests received very large amounts of advected energy during rain storms, or the Penman-Monteith E values are too low. Some advection of energy to our sites is quite feasible given their proximity to the ocean and generally well exposed locations. However, most of the above discrepancy is probably due to underestimation of the Penman-Monteith values of E, because of errors in the estimation of the above canopy relative humidity, due to the use of weather data adjacent to rather than above the forests and inherent difficulties of measuring the very high humidity's that occur during rainfall.

  5. Modelling wetland-groundwater interactions in the boreal Kälväsvaara esker, Northern Finland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaros, Anna; Rossi, Pekka; Ronkanen, Anna-Kaisa; Kløve, Bjørn

    2016-04-01

    Many types of boreal peatland ecosystems such as alkaline fens, aapa mires and Fennoscandia spring fens rely on the presence of groundwater. In these ecosystems groundwater creates unique conditions for flora and fauna by providing water, nutrients and constant water temperature enriching local biodiversity. The groundwater-peatland interactions and their dynamics are not, however, in many cases fully understood and their measurement and quantification is difficult due to highly heterogeneous structure of peatlands and large spatial extend of these ecosystems. Understanding of these interactions and their changes due to anthropogenic impact on groundwater resources would benefit the protection of the groundwater dependent peatlands. The groundwater-peatland interactions were investigated using the fully-integrated physically-based groundwater-surface water code HydroGeoSphere in a case study of the Kälväsvaara esker aquifer, Northern Finland. The Kälväsvaara is a geologically complex esker and it is surrounded by vast aapa mire system including alkaline and springs fens. In addition, numerous small springs occur in the discharge zone of the esker. In order to quantify groundwater-peatland interactions a simple steady-state model was built and results were evaluated using expected trends and field measurements. The employed model reproduced relatively well spatially distributed hydrological variables such as soil water content, water depths and groundwater-surface water exchange fluxes within the wetland and esker areas. The wetlands emerged in simulations as a result of geological and topographical conditions. They could be identified by high saturation levels at ground surface and by presence of shallow ponded water over some areas. The model outputs exhibited also strong surface water-groundwater interactions in some parts of the aapa system. These areas were noted to be regions of substantial diffusive groundwater discharge by the earlier studies. In

  6. Modeling nonbreeding distributions of shorebirds and waterfowl in response to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reese, Gordon; Skagen, Susan

    2017-01-01

    To identify areas on the landscape that may contribute to a robust network of conservation areas, we modeled the probabilities of occurrence of several en route migratory shorebirds and wintering waterfowl in the southern Great Plains of North America, including responses to changing climate. We predominantly used data from the eBird citizen-science project to model probabilities of occurrence relative to land-use patterns, spatial distribution of wetlands, and climate. We projected models to potential future climate conditions using five representative general circulation models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5). We used Random Forests to model probabilities of occurrence and compared the time periods 1981–2010 (hindcast) and 2041–2070 (forecast) in “model space.” Projected changes in shorebird probabilities of occurrence varied with species-specific general distribution pattern, migration distance, and spatial extent. Species using the western and northern portion of the study area exhibited the greatest likelihoods of decline, whereas species with more easterly occurrences, mostly long-distance migrants, had the greatest projected increases in probability of occurrence. At an ecoregional extent, differences in probabilities of shorebird occurrence ranged from −0.015 to 0.045 when averaged across climate models, with the largest increases occurring early in migration. Spatial shifts are predicted for several shorebird species. Probabilities of occurrence of wintering Mallards and Northern Pintail are predicted to increase by 0.046 and 0.061, respectively, with northward shifts projected for both species. When incorporated into partner land management decision tools, results at ecoregional extents can be used to identify wetland complexes with the greatest potential to support birds in the nonbreeding season under a wide range of future climate scenarios.

  7. Composition of uppermost mantle beneath the Northern Fennoscandia - numerical modeling and petrological interpretation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Virshylo, Ivan; Kozlovskaya, Elena; Prodaivoda, George; Silvennoinen, Hanna

    2013-04-01

    Studying of the uppermost mantle beneath the northern Fennoscandia is based on the data of the POLENET/LAPNET passive seismic array. Firstly, arrivals of P-waves of teleseismic events were inverted into P-wave velocity model using non-linear tomography (Silvennoinen et al., in preparation). The second stage was numerical petrological interpretation of referred above velocity model. This study presents estimation of mineralogical composition of the uppermost mantle as a result of numerical modeling. There are many studies concerning calculation of seismic velocities for polymineral media under high pressure and temperature conditions (Afonso, Fernàndez, Ranalli, Griffin, & Connolly, 2008; Fullea et al., 2009; Hacker, 2004; Xu, Lithgow-Bertelloni, Stixrude, & Ritsema, 2008). The elastic properties under high pressure and temperature (PT) conditions were modelled using the expanded Hook's law - Duhamel-Neumann equation, which allows computation of thermoelastic strains. Furthermore, we used a matrix model with multi-component inclusions that has no any restrictions on shape, orientation or concentration of inclusions. Stochastic method of conditional moment with computation scheme of Mori-Tanaka (Prodaivoda, Khoroshun, Nazarenko, & Vyzhva, 2000) is applied instead of traditional Voigt-Reuss-Hill and Hashin-Shtrikman equations. We developed software for both forward and inverse problem calculation. Inverse algorithm uses methods of global non-linear optimization. We prefer a "model-based" approach for ill-posed problem, which means that the problem is solved using geological and geophysical constraints for each parameter of a priori and final models. Additionally, we are checking at least several different hypothesis explaining how it is possible to get the solution with good fit to the observed data. If the a priori model is close to the real medium, the nearest solution would be found by the inversion. Otherwise, the global optimization is searching inside the

  8. Overview of past, ongoing and future efforts of the integrated modeling of global change for Northern Eurasia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monier, Erwan; Kicklighter, David; Sokolov, Andrei; Zhuang, Qianlai; Melillo, Jerry; Reilly, John

    2016-04-01

    Northern Eurasia is both a major player in the global carbon budget (it includes roughly 70% of the Earth's boreal forest and more than two-thirds of the Earth's permafrost) and a region that has experienced dramatic climate change (increase in temperature, growing season length, floods and droughts) over the past century. Northern Eurasia has also undergone significant land-use change, both driven by human activity (including deforestation, expansion of agricultural lands and urbanization) and natural disturbances (such as wildfires and insect outbreaks). These large environmental and socioeconomic impacts have major implications for the carbon cycle in the region. Northern Eurasia is made up of a diverse set of ecosystems that range from tundra to forests, with significant areas of croplands and pastures as well as deserts, with major urban areas. As such, it represents a complex system with substantial challenges for the modeling community. In this presentation, we provide an overview of past, ongoing and possible future efforts of the integrated modeling of global change for Northern Eurasia. We review the variety of existing modeling approaches to investigate specific components of Earth system dynamics in the region. While there are a limited number of studies that try to integrate various aspects of the Earth system (through scale, teleconnections or processes), we point out that there are few systematic analyses of the various feedbacks within the Earth system (between components, regions or scale). As a result, there is a lack of knowledge of the relative importance of such feedbacks, and it is unclear how policy relevant current studies are that fail to account for these feedbacks. We review the role of Earth system models, and their advantages/limitations compared to detailed single component models. We further introduce the human activity system (global trade, economic models, demographic model and so on), the need for coupled human/earth system models

  9. Climate change between the mid and late Holocene in northern high latitudes – Part 2: Model-data comparisons

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Holmgren

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available The climate response over northern high latitudes to the mid-Holocene orbital forcing has been investigated in three types of PMIP (Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project simulations with different complexity of the modelled climate system. By first undertaking model-data comparison, an objective selection method has been applied to evaluate the capability of the climate models to reproduce the spatial response pattern seen in proxy data. The possible feedback mechanisms behind the climate response have been explored based on the selected model simulations. Subsequent model-model comparisons indicate the importance of including the different physical feedbacks in the climate models. The comparisons between the proxy-based reconstructions and the best fit selected simulations show that over the northern high latitudes, summer temperature change follows closely the insolation change and shows a common feature with strong warming over land and relatively weak warming over ocean at 6 ka compared to 0 ka. Furthermore, the sea-ice-albedo positive feedback enhances this response. The reconstructions of temperature show a stronger response to enhanced insolation in the annual mean temperature than winter and summer temperature. This is verified in the model simulations and the behaviour is attributed to the larger contribution from the large response in autumn. Despite a smaller insolation during winter at 6 ka, a pronounced warming centre is found over Barents Sea in winter in the simulations, which is also supported by the nearby northern Eurasian continental and Fennoscandian reconstructions. This indicates that in the Arctic region, the response of the ocean and the sea ice to the enhanced summer insolation is more important for the winter temperature than the synchronous decrease of the insolation.

  10. Measurement and modeling of wind waves at the northern coast of Santa Catarina, Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Henrique G. M. Alves

    2001-01-01

    Full Text Available Directional measurements of wind-wave spectra made during the year of 1996 are used in a preliminary investigation of the wind-wave climate and its transformation at the São Francisco do Sul island, northern coast of the Santa Catarina state. Four major sea states and associated meteorological conditions are identified through analyses of joint distributions of observed wave parameters. Transformations of these main sea-state patterns due to refraction and shoaling are investigated through a numerical modeling approach that allows the reconstruction of the wave field within extensive coastal areas, using single point measurements of the wave spectrum in shallow waters. Cross-validation of measured and reconstructed spectra at the study site yield consistent results, suggesting that the proposed methodology works well for the São Francisco do Sul coast.Medições do espectro direcional de ondas geradas pelo vento realizadas em 1996 são utilizadas em uma investigação preliminar do clima de ondas no litoral norte de Santa Catarina, Brasil. Quatro estados de mar predominantes são identificados, em conjunto com os padrões meteorológicos associados a sua ocorrência, através de análises estatísticas. As transformações desses quatro estados de mar devido a refraçâo e empinamento são investigadas através de modelos numéricos, que permitem obter estimativas do campo de ondas em áreas extensas a partir de medições pontuais feitas em águas rasas. Comparações entre espectros medidos e modelados produzem resultados consistentes, sugerindo que a metodologia proposta é válida para a costa de São Francisco do Sul.

  11. A model study of Abrahamsenbreen, a surging glacier in northern Spitsbergen

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oerlemans, J.; van Pelt, W. J. J.

    2015-04-01

    The climate sensitivity of Abrahamsenbreen, a 20 km long surge-type glacier in northern Spitsbergen, is studied with a simple glacier model. A scheme to describe the surges is included, which makes it possible to account for the effect of surges on the total mass budget of the glacier. A climate reconstruction back to AD 1300, based on ice-core data from Lomonosovfonna and climate records from Longyearbyen, is used to drive the model. The model is calibrated by requesting that it produce the correct Little Ice Age maximum glacier length and simulate the observed magnitude of the 1978 surge. Abrahamsenbreen is strongly out of balance with the current climate. If climatic conditions remain as they were for the period 1989-2010, the glacier will ultimately shrink to a length of about 4 km (but this will take hundreds of years). For a climate change scenario involving a 2 m year-1 rise of the equilibrium line from now onwards, we predict that in the year 2100 Abrahamsenbreen will be about 12 km long. The main effect of a surge is to lower the mean surface elevation and thereby to increase the ablation area, causing a negative perturbation of the mass budget. We found that the occurrence of surges leads to a faster retreat of the glacier in a warming climate. Because of the very small bed slope, Abrahamsenbreen is sensitive to small perturbations in the equilibrium-line altitude. If the equilibrium line were lowered by only 160 m, the glacier would steadily grow into Woodfjorddalen until, after 2000 years, it would reach Woodfjord and calving would slow down the advance. The bed topography of Abrahamsenbreen is not known and was therefore inferred from the slope and length of the glacier. The value of the plasticity parameter needed to do this was varied by +20 and -20%. After recalibration the same climate change experiments were performed, showing that a thinner glacier (higher bedrock in this case) in a warming climate retreats somewhat faster.

  12. WMO SDS-WAS NAMEE Regional Center: Towards continuous evaluation of dust models in Northern Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Basart, Sara; García-Castillo, Gerardo; Cuevas, Emilio; Terradellas, Enric

    2016-04-01

    One of the most important activities of the Regional Center for Northern Africa, Middle East and Europe of the World Meteorological Organization's Sand and Dust Storm Warning Advisory and Assessment System (WMO SDS-WAS, http://sds-was.aemet.es) is the dust model intercomparison and forecast evaluation, which is deemed an indispensable service to the users and an invaluable tool to assess model skills. Currently, the Regional Center collects daily dust forecasts from models run by nine partners (BSC, ECMWF, NASA, NCEP, SEEVCCC, EMA, CNR-ISAC, NOA and UK Met Office). A multi-model ensemble has also been set up in an effort to provide added-value products to the users. The first problem to address the dust model evaluation is the scarcity of suitable routine observations near the Sahara, the world's largest source of mineral dust. The present contribution presents preliminary results of dust model evaluation using new observational datasets. The current routine evaluation of dust predictions is focused on total-column dust optical depth (DOD) and uses remote-sensing retrievals from sun-photometric (AERONET) and satellite (MODIS) measurements. However, most users of dust forecasts are interested in the concentration near the surface (in the air we breathe) rather than in the total column content. Therefore, evaluation of the predicted surface concentration is also necessary. In this context, the initiative of the African Monsoon Interdisciplinary Analysis (AMMA) International Program to establish permanent measuring stations in the Sahel is extremely important. Tapered Element Oscillating Microbalance (TEOM) monitors continuously record PM10 in M'Bour (Senegal); Cinzana (Mali) and Banizoumbou (Niger). This surface model evaluation is complemented with the PM10 observation from the Air Quality Control and Monitoring Network (AQCMN) of the Canary Islands (Spain). The region, located in the sub-tropical Eastern Atlantic (roughly 100 km west of the Moroccan coast), is

  13. Uncertainties in modelling CH4 emissions from northern wetlands in glacial climates: effect of hydrological model and CH4 model structure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. van Huissteden

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available Methane (CH4 fluxes from northern wetlands may have influenced atmospheric CH4 concentrations at climate warming phases during the last 800 000 years and during the present global warming. Including these CH4 fluxes in earth system models is essential to understand feedbacks between climate and atmospheric composition. Attempts to model CH4 fluxes from wetlands have previously been undertaken using various approaches. Here, we test a process-based wetland CH4 flux model (PEATLAND-VU which includes details of soil-atmosphere CH4 transport. The model has been used to simulate CH4 emissions from continental Europe in previous glacial climates and the current climate. This paper presents results regarding the sensitivity of modeling glacial terrestrial CH4 fluxes to (a basic tuning parameters of the model, (b different approaches in modeling of the water table, and (c model structure. In order to test the model structure, PEATLAND-VU was compared to a simpler modeling approach based on wetland primary production estimated from a vegetation model (BIOME 3.5. The tuning parameters are the CH4 production rate from labile organic carbon and its temperature sensitivity. The modelled fluxes prove comparatively insensitive to hydrology representation, while sensitive to microbial parameters and model structure. Glacial climate emissions are also highly sensitive to assumptions about the extent of ice cover and exposed seafloor. Wetland expansion over low relief exposed seafloor areas have compensated for a decrease of wetland area due to continental ice cover.

  14. Uncertainties in modeling CH4 emissions from northern wetlands in glacial climates: effect of hydrological model and CH4 model structure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. van Huissteden

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available Methane (CH4 fluxes from northern wetlands may have influenced atmospheric CH4 concentrations at climate warming phases during the 800 000 years and at present global warming. Including these CH4 fluxes in earth system models is essential to understand feedbacks between climate and atmospheric composition. Attempts to model CH4 fluxes from wetlands have been undertaken previously using various approaches. Here, we test a process-based wetland CH4 flux model (PEATLAND-VU which includes details of soil-atmosphere CH4 transport. The model has been used to simulate CH4 emissions from continental Europe in different glacial climates and the present climate. This paper displays results on the sensitivity of modeling glacial terrestrial CH4 fluxes to basic tuning parameters of the model, to different approaches in modeling of the water table, and to model structure. For testing the model structure, PEATLAND-VU has been compared to a simpler modeling approach based on wetland primary production estimated from a vegetation model (BIOME. The tuning parameters are the CH4 production rate from labile organic carbon and its temperature sensitivity. The modelled fluxes prove comparatively insensitive to hydrology representation, and sensitive to microbial parameters and model structure. Glacial climate emissions are also highly sensitive to assumptions on the extent of ice cover and exposed seafloors. Wetland expansion on low relief exposed seafloor areas, may have compensated for a decrease of wetland area due to continental ice cover.

  15. Coastal ocean forecasting with an unstructured grid model in the southern Adriatic and northern Ionian seas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Federico, Ivan; Pinardi, Nadia; Coppini, Giovanni; Oddo, Paolo; Lecci, Rita; Mossa, Michele

    2017-01-01

    SANIFS (Southern Adriatic Northern Ionian coastal Forecasting System) is a coastal-ocean operational system based on the unstructured grid finite-element three-dimensional hydrodynamic SHYFEM model, providing short-term forecasts. The operational chain is based on a downscaling approach starting from the large-scale system for the entire Mediterranean Basin (MFS, Mediterranean Forecasting System), which provides initial and boundary condition fields to the nested system. The model is configured to provide hydrodynamics and active tracer forecasts both in open ocean and coastal waters of southeastern Italy using a variable horizontal resolution from the open sea (3-4 km) to coastal areas (50-500 m). Given that the coastal fields are driven by a combination of both local (also known as coastal) and deep-ocean forcings propagating along the shelf, the performance of SANIFS was verified both in forecast and simulation mode, first (i) on the large and shelf-coastal scales by comparing with a large-scale survey CTD (conductivity-temperature-depth) in the Gulf of Taranto and then (ii) on the coastal-harbour scale (Mar Grande of Taranto) by comparison with CTD, ADCP (acoustic doppler current profiler) and tide gauge data. Sensitivity tests were performed on initialization conditions (mainly focused on spin-up procedures) and on surface boundary conditions by assessing the reliability of two alternative datasets at different horizontal resolution (12.5 and 6.5 km). The SANIFS forecasts at a lead time of 1 day were compared with the MFS forecasts, highlighting that SANIFS is able to retain the large-scale dynamics of MFS. The large-scale dynamics of MFS are correctly propagated to the shelf-coastal scale, improving the forecast accuracy (+17 % for temperature and +6 % for salinity compared to MFS). Moreover, the added value of SANIFS was assessed on the coastal-harbour scale, which is not covered by the coarse resolution of MFS, where the fields forecasted by SANIFS

  16. Impact of burned areas on the northern African seasonal climate from the perspective of regional modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Sales, Fernando; Xue, Yongkang; Okin, Gregory S.

    2016-12-01

    This study investigates the impact of burned areas on the surface energy balance and monthly precipitation in northern Africa as simulated by a state-of-the-art regional model. Mean burned area fraction derived from MODIS date of burning product was implemented in a set of 1-year long WRF-NMM/SSiB2 model simulations. Vegetation cover fraction and LAI were degraded daily based on mean burned area fraction and on the survival rate for each vegetation land cover type. Additionally, ground darkening associated with wildfire-induced ash and charcoal deposition was imposed through lower ground albedo for a period after burning. In general, wildfire-induced vegetation and ground condition deterioration increased mean surface albedo by exposing the brighter bare ground, which in turn caused a decrease in monthly surface net radiation. On average, the wildfire-season albedo increase was approximately 6.3 % over the Sahel. The associated decrease in surface available energy caused a drop in surface sensible heat flux to the atmosphere during the dry months of winter and early spring, which gradually transitioned to a more substantial decrease in surface evapotranspiration in April and May that lessened throughout the rainy season. Overall, post-fire land condition deterioration resulted in a decrease in precipitation over sub-Saharan Africa, associated with the weakening of the West African monsoon progression through the region. A decrease in atmospheric moisture flux convergence was observed in the burned area simulations, which played a dominant role in reducing precipitation in the area, especially in the months preceding the monsoon onset. The areas with the largest precipitation impact were those covered by savannas and rainforests, where annual precipitation decreased by 3.8 and 3.3 %, respectively. The resulting precipitation decrease and vegetation deterioration caused a drop in gross primary productivity in the region, which was strongest in late winter and early

  17. Developing a Coffee Yield Prediction and Integrated Soil Fertility Management Recommendation Model for Northern Tanzania

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Maro, G.P.; Mrema, J.P.; Msanya, B.M.; Janssen, B.H.; Teri, J.M.

    2014-01-01

    The aim of this study was to develop a simple and quantitative system for coffee yield estimation and nutrient input advice, so as to address the problem of declining annual coffee production in Tanzania (particularly in its Northern coffee zone), which is related to declining soil fertility. The st

  18. Using computer models to design gully erosion control structures for humid northern Ethiopia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Classic gully erosion control measures such as check dams have been unsuccessful in halting gully formation and growth in the humid northern Ethiopian highlands. Gullies are typically formed in vertisols and flow often bypasses the check dams as elevated groundwater tables make gully banks unstable....

  19. Crustal structure of the northern Perth Basin, southwest margin of Australia: insights from three-dimensional density models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holzrichter, Nils; Hackney, Ron; Johnston, Stephen

    2014-01-01

    The northern Perth Basin formed from the Palaeozoic to Mesozoic within an obliquely oriented extensional rift system on the southwest continental margin of Australia. Knowledge of the basin in onshore and inboard areas reflects better accessibility and the existence of proven hydrocarbon resources. In contrast, outboard parts of the basin have poorer data coverage and hydrocarbon potential remains to be proven. In order to better constrain sediment thickness and crustal structure in the northern Perth Basin, particularly in offshore areas where coverage of seismic data is less extensive, we adopted a 3-D density modelling approach whereby simple models were initially constructed as a means to highlight the level of agreement between measured and calculated gravity. These initial models are based only on available constraints, automated extrapolation of interpreted horizons into areas without constraints, and different interpretations of Moho depth. The initial models show that the processes leading to formation of sediment depocentres in the northern Perth Basin are not governed by simple local isostasy. We show instead that a model incorporating an existing Moho model for the Australian region leads to a better fit. In this model, the Moho is deeper under the thick sediments of the onshore Dandaragan Trough. As a result, the crystalline crust between the Beagle Ridge and basin-bounding Darling Fault has a relatively constant thickness that is consistent with crustal-scale tilting and normal displacement on a steeply west-dipping Darling Fault. In the outboard parts of the basin, our modelling suggests that the deep water Zeewyck Sub-basin is a deep and steep-sided depocentre, but this area lacks constraints and uncertainty in its interpretation cannot be resolved without additional data. Despite this, the steep edges, thick sediments and the large lateral variations in Moho depth are consistent with the geometry expected of a transtensional basin. We also present

  20. Can a coupled meteorology-chemistry model reproduce the historical trend in aerosol direct radiative effects over the Northern Hemisphere?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Xing

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available The ability of a coupled meteorology-chemistry model, i.e., WRF-CMAQ, in reproducing the historical trend in AOD and clear-sky short-wave radiation (SWR over the Northern Hemisphere has been evaluated through a comparison of 21 year simulated results with observation-derived records from 1990–2010. Six satellite retrieved AOD products including AVHRR, TOMS, SeaWiFS, MISR, MODIS-terra and -aqua as well as long-term historical records from 11 AERONET sites were used for the comparison of AOD trends. Clear-sky SWR products derived by CERES at both TOA and surface as well as surface SWR data derived from seven SURFRAD sites were used for the comparison of trends in SWR. The model successfully captured increasing AOD trends along with the corresponding increased TOA SWR (upwelling and decreased surface SWR (downwelling in both eastern China and the northern Pacific. The model also captured declining AOD trends along with the corresponding decreased TOA SWR (upwelling and increased surface SWR (downwelling in eastern US, Europe and northern Atlantic for the period of 2000–2010. However, the model underestimated the AOD over regions with substantial natural dust aerosol contributions, such as the Sahara Desert, Arabian Desert, central Atlantic and north Indian Ocean. Estimates of aerosol direct radiative effect (DRE at TOA are comparable with those derived by measurements. Compared to GCMs, the model exhibits better estimates of surface- aerosol direct radiative efficiency (Eτ. However, surface-DRE tends to be underestimated due to the underestimated AOD in land and dust regions. Further investigation of TOA-Eτ estimations as well as the dust module used for estimates of windblown-dust emissions is needed.

  1. Integration of Volterra model with artificial neural networks for rainfall-runoff simulation in forested catchment of northern Iran

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kashani, Mahsa H.; Ghorbani, Mohammad Ali; Dinpashoh, Yagob; Shahmorad, Sedaghat

    2016-09-01

    Rainfall-runoff simulation is an important task in water resources management. In this study, an integrated Volterra model with artificial neural networks (IVANN) was presented to simulate the rainfall-runoff process. The proposed integrated model includes the semi-distributed forms of the Volterra and ANN models which can explore spatial variation in rainfall-runoff process without requiring physical characteristic parameters of the catchments, while taking advantage of the potential of Volterra and ANNs models in nonlinear mapping. The IVANN model was developed using hourly rainfall and runoff data pertaining to thirteen storms to study short-term responses of a forest catchment in northern Iran; and its performance was compared with that of semi-distributed integrated ANN (IANN) model and lumped Volterra model. The Volterra model was applied as a nonlinear model (second-order Volterra (SOV) model) and solved using the ordinary least square (OLS) method. The models performance were evaluated and compared using five performance criteria namely coefficient of efficiency, root mean square error, error of total volume, relative error of peak discharge and error of time for peak to arrive. Results showed that the IVANN model performs well than the other semi-distributed and lumped models to simulate the rainfall-runoff process. Comparing to the integrated models, the lumped SOV model has lower precision to simulate the rainfall-runoff process.

  2. Holocene Northern Hemisphere sea-ice distribution - proxy data reconstruction and modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seidenkrantz, Marit-Solveig; de Vernal, Anne; Goosse, Hugues; Klein, François; Solignac, Sandrine; Van Nieuwenhove, Nicolas; Pearce, Christof; Caissie, Beth; Belt, Simon; Sha, Longbin; Cronin, Thomas M.; Stein, Rüdiger; Macias-Fauria, Marc; DeNinno, Lauren H.

    2016-04-01

    resolution, our data indicate that sea ice was present in the Arctic throughout the Holocene and that no longer periods of absence of sea ice occurred. Our proxy data interpretations have been used to constrain model output using data assimilation in the LOVECLIM model, focusing on the period 6±0.5 ka. This period of warmer than present summer conditions can help to understand the dynamics of the system in a warmer world. As expected, data assimilation leads to an overall better agreement with the reconstructions, mainly because of changes in the simulated wind patterns. Overall, the model simulation suggests that during the Holocene Thermal Maximum sea ice distribution was controlled by a strong positive Northern Annular Mode.

  3. Molecular Indicators of Chronic Stress in a Model Pinniped - The Northern Elephant Seal

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-09-30

    experienced recent acute stress, and chronically stressed animals can offer substantial information relevant to management and conservation of marine...Overview of Experimental Design The proposed work will be conducted in northern elephant seals (Mirounga angustirostris), a tractable marine mammal system...fall. This life- history stage represents a baseline state in this species with no additional confounding features such as breeding or molting. In

  4. Spring flood pH decline in northern Sweden: Towards an operational model separating natural acidity from anthropogenic acidification

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Laudon, H.

    1999-10-01

    The spring flood is a defining feature of the ecosystem in northern Sweden. In this region, spring flood is an occasion for dramatic hydrochemical changes that profoundly effect the biodiversity of the aquatic ecosystem. Spring flood is also the period most susceptible to anthropogenic acidification. A belief in the anthropogenic component to pH decline during spring flood has been an important factor in spending over half a billion crowns to lime surface waters in Northern Sweden during the last decade. The natural component of episodic pH decline during spring flood, however, has received less attention. The main objective of this work is to present an operational model for separating and quantifying the anthropogenic and natural contributions of episodic acidification during high flow events in Northern Sweden. The key assumptions in this model are that baseflow ANC has not been affected by anthropogenic acidification, that DOC has not changed due to modern land-use practice and that natural dilution during hydrological episodes can be quantified. The limited data requirements of 10-15 stream water samples before and during spring flood make the model suitable for widespread use in environmental monitoring programs. This makes it possible to distinguish trends of human impact as well as natural pH decline in space and time. Modeling results from northern Sweden demonstrate that the natural driving mechanisms of dilution and organic acidity were the dominant factors in the episodic acidification of spring flood in the region. The anthropogenic contribution to spring pH decline was similar in size to the natural contribution in only two of the more than 30 events where this model was applied. Natural factors alone were found to cause pH values below 4.5 in some streams. Anthropogenic sources of acidity can be superimposed on this natural dynamics. In the sites studied, the magnitude of the anthropogenic ANC decline was correlated to the winter deposition of

  5. Impacts of snow and organic soils parameterization on northern Eurasian soil temperature profiles simulated by the ISBA land surface model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Decharme, Bertrand; Brun, Eric; Boone, Aaron; Delire, Christine; Le Moigne, Patrick; Morin, Samuel

    2016-04-01

    In this study we analyzed how an improved representation of snowpack processes and soil properties in the multilayer snow and soil schemes of the Interaction Soil-Biosphere-Atmosphere (ISBA) land surface model impacts the simulation of soil temperature profiles over northern Eurasian regions. For this purpose, we refine ISBA's snow layering algorithm and propose a parameterization of snow albedo and snow compaction/densification adapted from the detailed Crocus snowpack model. We also include a dependency on soil organic carbon content for ISBA's hydraulic and thermal soil properties. First, changes in the snowpack parameterization are evaluated against snow depth, snow water equivalent, surface albedo, and soil temperature at a 10 cm depth observed at the Col de Porte field site in the French Alps. Next, the new model version including all of the changes is used over northern Eurasia to evaluate the model's ability to simulate the snow depth, the soil temperature profile, and the permafrost characteristics. The results confirm that an adequate simulation of snow layering and snow compaction/densification significantly impacts the snowpack characteristics and the soil temperature profile during winter, while the impact of the more accurate snow albedo computation is dominant during the spring. In summer, the accounting for the effect of soil organic carbon on hydraulic and thermal soil properties improves the simulation of the soil temperature profile. Finally, the results confirm that this last process strongly influences the simulation of the permafrost active layer thickness and its spatial distribution.

  6. Modelling study of boundary-layer ozone over northern China - Part II: Responses to emission reductions during the Beijing Olympics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Guiqian; Zhu, Xiaowan; Xin, Jinyuan; Hu, Bo; Song, Tao; Sun, Yang; Wang, Lili; Wu, Fangkun; Sun, Jie; Cheng, Mengtian; Chao, Na; Li, Xin; Wang, Yuesi

    2017-09-01

    The implementation of emission reduction measures during the Olympics provided a valuable opportunity to study regional photochemical pollution over northern China. In this study, the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University/National Centre for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model and Community Multiscale Air Quality model system was applied to conduct two sets of modelling analyses of the period from July 20 to September 20, 2008, to illustrate the influences of emission reduction measures on regional photochemical pollution over northern China during the Beijing Olympics. The results indicated that the implementation of emission control measures decreased the concentrations of ozone (O3) precursors, namely nitrogen oxide (NOx) and volatile organic compounds (VOCs), throughout the boundary layer. The concentrations of these compounds were reduced by 45% in the central urban area of Beijing at the ground level. Although the average O3 concentration in the central urban area increased by more than 8 ppbv, the total oxidant concentration decreased significantly by more than 5 ppbv. Greater O3 concentrations mainly occurred during periods with weak photochemical reactions. During periods of strong photochemical production, the O3 concentration decreased significantly due to a weakening vertical circulation between the lower and upper boundary layer. Consequently, the number of days when the O3 concentration exceeded 100 ppbv decreased by 25% in Beijing. The emission control measures altered the sensitivity of the regional O3 production. The coordinated control region of NOx and VOCs expanded, and the control region of VOCs decreased in size. The reduction of non-point-source emissions, such as fugitive VOCs and vehicles, was more useful for controlling regional photochemical pollution over northern China.

  7. Petroleum potential of the northern Sinu-San Jacinto Basin, Colombia: an integrated petroleum system and basin modeling approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nino, Christian H.; Goncalves, Felix T.T.; Bedregal, Ricardo P. [Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ), RJ (Brazil). Coordenacao dos Programas de Pos-graduacao de Engenharia (COPPE). Lab. de Modelagem de Bacias (LAB2M); Azevedo, Debora A. [Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ), RJ (Brazil). Inst. de Quimica; Landau, Luis [Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ), RJ (Brazil). Coordenacao dos Programas de Pos-graduacao de Engenharia (COPPE). Lab. de Metodos Computacionais em Engenharia (LAMCE)

    2004-07-01

    The northern Sinu-San Jacinto basin, located in the northwestern corner of South America (Colombia), belongs to the accretionary prism that resulted from the collision and subduction of the Caribbean plate under the South America plate. Despite all the previous exploratory efforts, solely a few small sub-commercial oil and gas accumulation have been found up to now. The geological and geochemical information acquired by different companies during the lasts decades was integrated with new geochemical analysis and basin modeling to characterize the petroleum systems, to reconstruct the hydrocarbon charge history in the study area and to better assess the exploratory risk. (author)

  8. Petroleum potential of the northern Sinu-San Jacinto Basin, Colombia: an integrated petroleum system and basin modeling approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nino, Christian H.; Goncalves, Felix T.T.; Bedregal, Ricardo P. [Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ), RJ (Brazil). Coordenacao dos Programas de Pos-graduacao de Engenharia (COPPE). Lab. de Modelagem de Bacias (LAB2M); Azevedo, Debora A. [Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ), RJ (Brazil). Inst. de Quimica; Landau, Luis [Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ), RJ (Brazil). Coordenacao dos Programas de Pos-graduacao de Engenharia (COPPE). Lab. de Metodos Computacionais em Engenharia (LAMCE)

    2004-07-01

    The northern Sinu-San Jacinto basin, located in the northwestern corner of South America (Colombia), belongs to the accretionary prism that resulted from the collision and subduction of the Caribbean plate under the South America plate. Despite all the previous exploratory efforts, solely a few small sub-commercial oil and gas accumulation have been found up to now. The geological and geochemical information acquired by different companies during the lasts decades was integrated with new geochemical analysis and basin modeling to characterize the petroleum systems, to reconstruct the hydrocarbon charge history in the study area and to better assess the exploratory risk. (author)

  9. The impact of the Arctic Sea Ice retreat on extratropical cyclones and anticyclones over Northern Eurasia: atmospheric model simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akperov, Mirseid; Semenov, Vladimir; Mokhov, Igor; Lupo, Antony

    2015-04-01

    The Arctic region has been warming more than twice as fast as the other parts of the world during the last few decades. The rapid Arctic warming is accompanied with the dramatic change of Arctic sea ice cover. Recently, it has been suggested that such climatic changes might have led to the increase of anomalous weather events in winter over Northern Eurasia. One example is anomalous cold winters over Northern Eurasia associated with atmospheric blocking events. However, a large uncertainty remains concerning robustness of the observed relationship and associated mechanisms of impact. The main goal of this research is to explore the connection between the declining Arctic sea ice (most strongly expressed in the Barents-Kara Seas region) in the cold season and the change of cyclonic and anti-cyclonic activity over Northern Eurasia using simulations with atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM). The simulations were performed with the ECHAM5 AGCM using identical sea surface temperature climatology but different sea ice concentrations (SIC) for the periods corresponding to the high (1966-1969), low (1990-1995) and very low (2005-2012) SIC regimes in the Arctic as well as for the mean climatological SIC for 1971-2000. The duration of each simulation was 50 years. For the regimes with high and very low SIC, a statistically significant increase in the number of long-living anticyclones (with lifetime of more than 5 days) over Northern Eurasia was found. Long-living cyclones exhibited different changes in their number depending on their intensity. The analysis of the spatial patterns of cyclonic and anti-cyclonic activity over Eurasia was performed. We found an increase of the frequency of cyclones over the central region of the European part of Russia (EPR) and anticyclones over the northern region of the EPR for the regimes with a high sea ice concentration in the Arctic. For the regime with very low SIC the shift of the frequency of cyclones and anticyclones towards

  10. 21st Century changes in snow climate in Northern Europe: a high-resolution view from ENSEMBLES regional climate models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Raeisaenen, Jouni [Department of Physics, P.O. Box 48 (Erik Palmenin aukio 1), University of Helsinki (Finland); Eklund, Joonas [Department of Physics, P.O. Box 48 (Erik Palmenin aukio 1), University of Helsinki (Finland); Finnish Meteorological Institute, P.O. Box 503 (Erik Palmenin aukio 1), Helsinki (Finland)

    2012-06-15

    Changes in snow amount in northern Europe are analysed from 11 regional model simulations of 21st century climate under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios A1B scenario. These high-resolution models collectively indicate a future decrease in the water equivalent of the snow pack (SWE). Although winter precipitation increases, this is insufficient to compensate for the increased fraction of liquid precipitation and increased snowmelt caused by higher temperatures. The multi-model mean results suggest a slight increase in March mean SWE only locally in mountains of northern Sweden, and even there, snow is reduced earlier in winter and later in spring. The nature of the changes remains the same throughout the 21st century, but their magnitude increases with time as the greenhouse gas forcing grows larger. The geographical patterns of the change support the physically intuitive view that snow is most vulnerable to warming in areas with relatively mild winter climate. A similar relationship emerges when comparing the 11 simulations with each other: the ratio between the relative SWE decrease and winter mean temperature change is larger (smaller) for simulations with higher (lower) late 20th century winter temperatures. Despite the decrease in long-term mean SWE, individual snow-rich winters do occur in the simulations, but they become increasingly uncommon towards the end of the 21st century. (orig.)

  11. Performance assessment and parameterization of the SWAP-WOFOST model for peat soil under agricultural use in northern Europe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertram, Sascha; Bechtold, Michel; Hendriks, Rob; Piayda, Arndt; Regina, Kristiina; Myllys, Merja; Tiemeyer, Bärbel

    2017-04-01

    Peat soils form a major share of soil suitable for agriculture in northern Europe. Successful agricultural production depends on hydrological and pedological conditions, local climate and agricultural management. Climate change impact assessment on food production and development of mitigation and adaptation strategies require reliable yield forecasts under given emission scenarios. Coupled soil hydrology - crop growth models, driven by regionalized future climate scenarios are a valuable tool and widely used for this purpose. Parameterization on local peat soil conditions and crop breed or grassland specie performance, however, remains a major challenge. The subject of this study is to evaluate the performance and sensitivity of the SWAP-WOFOST coupled soil hydrology and plant growth model with respect to the application on peat soils under different regional conditions across northern Europe. Further, the parameterization of region-specific crop and grass species is discussed. First results of the model application and parameterization at deep peat sites in southern Finland are presented. The model performed very well in reproducing two years of observed, daily ground water level data on four hydrologically contrasting sites. Naturally dry and wet sites could be modelled with the same performance as sites with active water table management by regulated drains in order to improve peat conservation. A simultaneous multi-site calibration scheme was used to estimate plant growth parameters of the local oat breed. Cross-site validation of the modelled yields against two years of observations proved the robustness of the chosen parameter set and gave no indication of possible overparameterization. This study proves the suitability of the coupled SWAP-WOFOST model for the prediction of crop yields and water table dynamics of peat soils in agricultural use under given climate conditions.

  12. The initial dispersal and radiative forcing of a Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude super volcano: a model study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Timmreck

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available The chemistry climate model MAECHAM4/ CHEM with interactive and prognostic volcanic aerosol and ozone was used to study the initial dispersal and radiative forcing of a possible Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude super eruption. Tropospheric climate anomalies are not analysed since sea surface temperatures are kept fixed. Our experiments show that the global dispersal of a super eruption located at Yellowstone, Wy. is strongly dependent on the season of the eruption. In Northern Hemisphere summer the volcanic cloud is transported westward and preferentially southward, while in Northern Hemisphere winter the cloud is transported eastward and more northward compared to the summer case. Aerosol induced heating leads to a more global spreading with a pronounced cross equatorial transport. For a summer eruption aerosol is transported much further to the Southern Hemisphere than for a winter eruption. In contrast to Pinatubo case studies, strong cooling tendencies appear with maximum peak values of less than −1.6 K/day three months after the eruption in the upper tropical stratosphere. This strong cooling effect weakens with decreasing aerosol density over time and initially prevents the aerosol laden air from further active rising. All-sky net radiative flux changes of less than −32 W/m2 at the surface are about a factor of 6 larger than for the Pinatubo eruption. Large positive flux anomalies of more than 16 W/m2 are found in the first months in the tropics and sub tropics. These strong forcings call for a fully coupled ocean/atmosphere/chemistry model to study climate sensitivity to such a super-eruption.

  13. Integrating distributional, spatial prioritization, and individual-based models to evaluate potential critical habitat networks: A case study using the Northern Spotted Owl

    Science.gov (United States)

    As part of the northern spotted owl recovery planning effort, we evaluated a series of alternative critical habitat scenarios using a species-distribution model (MaxEnt), a conservation-planning model (Zonation), and an individual-based population model (HexSim). With this suite ...

  14. Terrestrial ecosystem model performance in simulating productivity and its vulnerability to climate change in the northern permafrost region

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Xia, Jianyang; McGuire, A. David; Lawrence, David

    2017-01-01

    productivity (NPP) and responses to historical climate change in permafrost regions in the Northern Hemisphere. In comparison with the satellite estimate from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS; 246 ± 6 g C m−2 yr−1), most models produced higher NPP (309 ± 12 g C m−2 yr−1) over...... and the maximum rate of carboxylation by the enzyme Rubisco at 25°C (Vcmax_25), respectively. The models also varied in their sensitivities of NPP, GPP, and CUE to historical changes in climate and atmospheric CO2 concentration. These results indicate that model predictive ability of the C cycle in permafrost...... regions can be improved by better representation of the processes controlling CUE and GPPmax as well as their sensitivity to climate change....

  15. Dispersion of sulphur in the northern hemisphere. A study with a 3-dimensional time-resolved model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tarrason, L.

    1995-12-31

    This thesis on atmospheric dispersion of sulphur presents a calculation of intercontinental transport of oxidized sulphur and allocates different contributions to sulphur background levels over Europe. It is found that a significant fraction of anthropogenic sulphur (AS) is transported out of continental boundaries thus affecting the background levels over major parts of the northern hemisphere. Over Europe, the contribution of AS from North America is similar in amount to that of Asian AS and natural sources from the North Atlantic Ocean. Although the yearly contribution of intercontinental transport to deposition of sulphur over Europe is quite small, it can be much more important over certain areas and seasons and is comparable to the contributions from individual European countries. The calculations are based on a three-dimensional Eulerian time-resolved model that describes sulphur dispersion in the atmosphere in connection with large-scale synoptic flows and agree well with observations. The thesis emphasizes the role of synoptic scale atmospheric motions in determining intercontinental transport of sulphur. It indicates the need to resolve individual cyclones and anticyclones in order to describe the dispersion and distribution of atmospheric sulphur in the northern hemisphere and stresses the value of comparing model calculations with observations, both in atmospheric chemistry studies and in climate applications. 260 refs., 50 figs., 17 tabs.

  16. How well do CMIP5 climate models reproduce explosive cyclones in the extratropics of the Northern Hemisphere?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seiler, C.; Zwiers, F. W.

    2016-02-01

    Extratropical explosive cyclones are rapidly intensifying low pressure systems with severe wind speeds and heavy precipitation, affecting livelihoods and infrastructure primarily in coastal and marine environments. This study evaluates how well the most recent generation of climate models reproduces extratropical explosive cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere for the period 1980-2005. An objective-feature tracking algorithm is used to identify and track cyclones from 25 climate models and three reanalysis products. Model biases are compared to biases in the sea surface temperature (SST) gradient, the polar jet stream, the Eady growth rate, and model resolution. Most models accurately reproduce the spatial distribution of explosive cyclones when compared to reanalysis data ( R = 0.94), with high frequencies along the Kuroshio Current and the Gulf Stream. Three quarters of the models however significantly underpredict explosive cyclone frequencies, by a third on average and by two thirds in the worst case. This frequency bias is significantly correlated with jet stream speed in the inter-model spread ( R ≥ 0.51), which in the Atlantic is correlated with a negative meridional SST gradient ( R = -0.56). The importance of the jet stream versus other variables considered in this study also applies to the interannual variability of explosive cyclone frequency. Furthermore, models with fewer explosive cyclones tend to underpredict the corresponding deepening rates ( R ≥ 0.88). A follow-up study will assess the impacts of climate change on explosive cyclones, and evaluate how model biases presented in this study affect the projections.

  17. Three-Dimensional Geologic Framework Model for a Karst Aquifer System, Hasty and Western Grove Quadrangles, Northern Arkansas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turner, Kenzie J.; Hudson, Mark R.; Murray, Kyle E.; Mott, David N.

    2007-01-01

    Understanding ground-water flow in a karst aquifer benefits from a detailed conception of the three-dimensional (3D) geologic framework. Traditional two-dimensional products, such as geologic maps, cross-sections, and structure contour maps, convey a mental picture of the area but a stronger conceptualization can be achieved by constructing a digital 3D representation of the stratigraphic and structural geologic features. In this study, a 3D geologic model was created to better understand a karst aquifer system in the Buffalo National River watershed in northern Arkansas. The model was constructed based on data obtained from recent, detailed geologic mapping for the Hasty and Western Grove 7.5-minute quadrangles. The resulting model represents 11 stratigraphic zones of Ordovician, Mississippian, and Pennsylvanian age. As a result of the highly dissected topography, stratigraphic and structural control from geologic contacts and interpreted structure contours were sufficient for effectively modeling the faults and folds in the model area. Combined with recent dye-tracing studies, the 3D framework model is useful for visualizing the various geologic features and for analyzing the potential control they exert on the ground-water flow regime. Evaluation of the model, by comparison to published maps and cross-sections, indicates that the model accurately reproduces both the surface geology and subsurface geologic features of the area.

  18. Long-term mesoscale variability of modelled sea-ice primary production in the northern Baltic Sea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Letizia Tedesco

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available We describe a new ocean-sea ice-biogeochemical model, apply it to the Bothnian Bay in the northern Baltic Sea for the time period 1991–2007 and provide the first long-term mesoscale estimates of modelled sea-ice primary production in the northern Baltic Sea. After comparing the available physical and biogeochemical observations within the study area and the time period investigated with the model results, we show the modelled spatial, intra- and interannual variability in sea-ice physical and biogeochemical properties and consider the main factors limiting ice algal primary production. Sea-ice permeability in the studied area was low compared with the polar oceans, which appeared to be a major reason for the generally low primary production rates. Although the sea ice was less saline in the northernmost parts of the basin, these parts were characterized by sea ice with a larger amount of habitable space, higher levels of photosynthetically active radiation and increased macronutrient availability near the coast, which favoured higher algal growth rates. Other parts of the southern central basin were mostly co-limited by less favourable light conditions (i.e., earlier ice breakups associated with fewer sunlight hours and lower seawater macronutrient concentrations than in the coastal zones. Although a change towards milder winters (i.e., reduced ice cover, thickness and length of the ice season was previously detected on a half-century timescale and could partly be seen here, analysis of the temporal evolution of sea-ice biogeochemical properties showed no significant trends over time, though these properties were characterized by large interannual variability.

  19. Modeling Pareto efficient PM10 control policies in Northern Italy to reduce health effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pisoni, Enrico; Volta, Marialuisa

    High PM10 concentrations can cause human health problems, both related to short-term and long-term exposure to particles. In this work the impact of efficient PM10 control problems in Northern Italy is assessed by means of a two-stage methodology. In the first stage a multi-objective optimization approach is applied. The multi-objective problem defines two control objectives (the emission reduction costs and the air quality index) to be minimized varying the decision variables (precursor emission reductions). The solution of the multi-objective problem is the Pareto efficient PM10 control policies. In the second stage, the ExternE methodology is applied to estimate health impacts and external costs for the efficient emission reduction scenarios computed in the first stage. The methodology has been applied over Lombardia region, one of the most polluted areas in Europe.

  20. Soil Erosion Prediction Using Morgan-Morgan-Finney Model in a GIS Environment in Northern Ethiopia Catchment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gebreyesus Brhane Tesfahunegn

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Even though scientific information on spatial distribution of hydrophysical parameters is critical for understanding erosion processes and designing suitable technologies, little is known in Geographical Information System (GIS application in developing spatial hydrophysical data inputs and their application in Morgan-Morgan-Finney (MMF erosion model. This study was aimed to derive spatial distribution of hydrophysical parameters and apply them in the Morgan-Morgan-Finney (MMF model for estimating soil erosion in the Mai-Negus catchment, northern Ethiopia. Major data input for the model include climate, topography, land use, and soil data. This study demonstrated using MMF model that the rate of soil detachment varied from 170 t ha−1 y−1, whereas the soil transport capacity of overland flow (TC ranged from 5 t ha−1 y−1 to >42 t ha−1 y−1. The average soil loss estimated by TC using MMF model at catchment level was 26 t ha−1 y−1. In most parts of the catchment (>80%, the model predicted soil loss rates higher than the maximum tolerable rate (18 t ha−1 y−1 estimated for Ethiopia. Hence, introducing appropriate interventions based on the erosion severity predicted by MMF model in the catchment is crucial for sustainable natural resources management.

  1. Simulation of Rainfed Wheat Yield using AquaCrop Model, Case Study: Sisab Rainfed Researches Station, Northern Khorasan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Khalili

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Modeling of crop growth plays an important role in evaluation of drought impacts on rainfed yield, choosing an optimum sowing date, and managerial decision-makings. Aquacrop model is a new crop model that developed by Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO, that is a model for simulation of crop yield based on “yield response to water“ with meteorological, crop, soli and management practices data as inputs. This model has to be calibrated and validated for each crop species and each location. In this paper, the Aquacrop has been calibrated and evaluated for rainfed wheat in Sisab station (Northern Khorasan. For this purpose, daily meteorological data and historical yield data from two cropping season (2007-2008 and 2008-2009 in the Sisab station have been used to calibrate this model. Next, meteorological data and historical yield data of five cropping season (2002-2003 to 2006-2007 are used to validate the model. The result shows that the Aqucrop can accurately predict crop yield as R2, RMSE, NRMSE, ME, and D-Index are achieved 0.86, 0.062, 5.235, 0.917 and 0.877, respectively.

  2. Integrating species distributional, conservation planning, and individual based population models: A case study in critical habitat evaluation for the Northern Spotted Owl

    Science.gov (United States)

    Background / Question / Methods As part of the ongoing northern spotted owl recovery planning effort, we evaluated a series of alternative potential critical habitat scenarios using a species-distribution model (MaxEnt), a conservation-planning model (Zonation), and an individua...

  3. Uncertainties in modelling CH4 emissions from northern wetlands in glacial climates: the role of vegetation parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. van Huissteden

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS 3 interstadials are marked by a sharp increase in the atmospheric methane (CH4 concentration, as recorded in ice cores. Wetlands are assumed to be the major source of this CH4, although several other hypotheses have been advanced. Modelling of CH4 emissions is crucial to quantify CH4 sources for past climates. Vegetation effects are generally highly generalized in modelling past and present-day CH4 fluxes, but should not be neglected. Plants strongly affect the soil-atmosphere exchange of CH4 and the net primary production of the vegetation supplies organic matter as substrate for methanogens. For modelling past CH4 fluxes from northern wetlands, assumptions on vegetation are highly relevant since paleobotanical data indicate large differences in Last Glacial (LG wetland vegetation composition as compared to modern wetland vegetation. Besides more cold-adapted vegetation, Sphagnum mosses appear to be much less dominant during large parts of the LG than at present, which particularly affects CH4 oxidation and transport. To evaluate the effect of vegetation parameters, we used the PEATLAND-VU wetland CO2/CH4 model to simulate emissions from wetlands in continental Europe during LG and modern climates. We tested the effect of parameters influencing oxidation during plant transport (fox, vegetation net primary production (NPP, parameter symbol Pmax, plant transport rate (Vtransp, maximum rooting depth (Zroot and root exudation rate (fex. Our model results show that modelled CH4 fluxes are sensitive to fox and Zroot in particular. The effects of Pmax, Vtransp and fex are of lesser relevance. Interactions with water table modelling are significant for Vtransp. We conducted experiments with different wetland vegetation types for Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS 3 stadial and interstadial climates and the present-day climate, by coupling PEATLAND-VU to high resolution climate model simulations for Europe. Experiments assuming

  4. Processes affecting Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) infestation and abundance: inference through statistical modeling and risk maps in northern Argentina.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garelli, F M; Espinosa, M O; Gürtler, R E

    2012-05-01

    Understanding the processes that affect Aedes aegypti (L.) (Diptera: Culicidae) may serve as a starting point to create and/or improve vector control strategies. For this purpose, we performed statistical modeling of three entomological surveys conducted in Clorinda City, northern Argentina. Previous 'basic' models of presence or absence of larvae and/or pupae (infestation) and the number of pupae in infested containers (productivity), mainly based on physical characteristics of containers, were expanded to include variables selected a priori reflecting water use practices, vector-related context factors, the history of chemical control, and climate. Model selection was performed using Akaike's Information Criterion. In total, 5,431 water-holding containers were inspected and 12,369 Ae. aegypti pupae collected from 963 positive containers. Large tanks were the most productive container type. Variables reflecting every putative process considered, except for history of chemical control, were selected in the best models obtained for infestation and productivity. The associations found were very strong, particularly in the case of infestation. Water use practices and vector-related context factors were the most important ones, as evidenced by their impact on Akaike's Information Criterion scores of the infestation model. Risk maps based on empirical data and model predictions showed a heterogeneous distribution of entomological risk. An integrated vector control strategy is recommended, aiming at community participation for healthier water use practices and targeting large tanks for key elements such as lid status, water addition frequency and water use.

  5. Flash Flood Prediction by Coupling KINEROS2 and HEC-RAS Models for Tropical Regions of Northern Vietnam

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hong Quang Nguyen

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Northern Vietnam is a region prone to heavy flash flooding events. These often have devastating effects on the environment, cause economic damage and, in the worst case scenario, cost human lives. As their frequency and severity are likely to increase in the future, procedures have to be established to cope with this threat. As the prediction of potential flash floods represents one crucial element in this circumstance, we will present an approach that combines the two models KINEROS2 and HEC-RAS in order to accurately predict their occurrence. We used a documented event on 23 June 2011 in the Nam Khat and the larger adjacent Nam Kim watershed to calibrate the coupled model approach. Afterward, we evaluated the performance of the coupled models in predicting flow velocity (FV, water levels (WL, discharge (Q and streamflow power (P during the 3–5 days following the event, using two different precipitation datasets from the global spectral model (GSM and the high resolution model (HRM. Our results show that the estimated Q and WL closely matched observed data with a Nash–Sutcliffe simulation efficiency coefficient (NSE of around 0.93 and a coefficient of determination (R2 at above 0.96. The resulting analyses reveal strong relationships between river geometry and FV, WL and P. Although there were some minor errors in forecast results, the model-predicted Q and WL corresponded well to the gauged data.

  6. Using bioenergetics modeling to estimate consumption of native juvenile salmonids by nonnative northern pike in the Upper Flathead River System, Montana

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muhlfeld, C.C.; Bennett, D.H.; Kirk, Steinhorst R.; Marotz, B.; Boyer, M.

    2008-01-01

    Introductions of nonnative northern pike Esox lucius have created recreational fisheries in many waters in the United States and Canada, yet many studies have shown that introduced northern pike may alter the composition and structure of fish communities through predation. We estimated the abundance of nonnative northern pike (2002-2003) and applied food habits data (1999-2003) to estimate their annual consumption of native bull trout Salvelinus confluentus and westslope cutthroat trout Oncorhynchus clarkii lewisi juveniles in the upper Flathead River system, Montana. Population estimates were generally consistent among years and ranged from 1,200 to 1,300 individuals. Westslope cutthroat trout were present in the diet of younger (???600 mm) and older (>600 mm) northern pike during all seasons and bull trout were found only in larger northern pike during all seasons but summer. Bioenergetics modeling estimated that the northern pike population annually consumed a total of 8.0 metric tons (mt) of fish flesh; the highest biomass was composed of cyprinids (4.95 mt) followed by whitefishes Prosopium spp. (1.02 mt), bull trout (0.80 mt), westslope cutthroat trout (0.68 mt), yellow perch Perca flavescens (0.41 mt),1 and other fishes (centrarchids and cottids; 0.14 mt). Numerically, the northern pike population consumed more than 342,000 fish; cyprinids and catostomids comprised approximately 82% of prey fish (278,925), whereas over 13,000 westslope cutthroat trout and nearly 3,500 bull trout were eaten, comprising about 5% of the prey consumed. Our results suggest that predation by introduced northern pike is contributing to the lower abundance of native salmonids in the system and that a possible benefit might accrue to native salmonids by reducing these predatory interactions. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2008.

  7. A world without Greenland: impacts on the Northern Hemisphere winter circulation in low- and high-resolution models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Junge, M. M.; Blender, R.; Fraedrich, K.; Gayler, V.; Luksch, U.; Lunkeit, F.

    2005-02-01

    To investigate the effect of Greenland’s orography on the northern hemisphere winter circulation experiments with an atmospheric GCM are conducted: a perturbed integration where standard orography is reduced to sea level in the Greenland area is compared to a standard orography control integration. The outcome of these experiments suggests that the existence of high mountains at Greenland causes a reinforcement of the stationary wave field in the Atlantic sector, colder temperatures to the west of Greenland and warmer temperatures to the east and south, over the North Atlantic. The impact on the flow field cannot be understood in the framework of standing Rossby waves, but it indicates a resonance between remotely forced stationary waves and local (thermo-) dynamics. The pattern of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), in particular the northern centre, lies further to the east in the flat-Greenland experiment compared to the control run and the observations. Together with the fact that the climatological low-pressure system around Iceland hardly shifts, this suggests that the location of the NAO is not necessarily tied to the time mean pressure distributions. Considering the model resolution as a parameter, experiments with a high resolution (T106) suggest that the near-field changes are represented sufficiently by a T42 resolution, a standard resolution used in state-of-the-art coupled climate models. In contrast, far-field changes depend critically on model resolution. Hemispheric circulation and temperature changes differ substantially from low to high resolution, and generalized statements about the impact of Greenland’s orography cannot be made.

  8. Application of a new hydraulic conductivity model to simulate rapid groundwater fluctuations in the Eel River watershed in Northern California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vrettas, M. D.; Fung, I. Y.

    2015-12-01

    High-frequency multi-year observations of the water table at several wells in the Angelo Coast Range Reserve in the Eel River Watershed in northern California show rapid fluctuations, where the water table, some 10-15 meters below the surface, rises by as much as 1 meter in a day or two after the first storms of the rain season. The observations highlight preferential flow through weathered bedrock, which can store as much as 30% of the moisture in the column ("rock moisture"). This rapid transfer of moisture and storage at depth could have a significant impact on ecosystem dynamics and the water and energy budgets of the atmosphere on various time scales. Despite its high importance, preferential flow through weather bedrock is not routinely captured in most climate models. This work presents a new hydraulic conductivity parameterization that captures the preferential flow, with straightforward implementation into current global climate models. The hydraulic conductivity is represented as a product of the effective saturation (normalized water content) and a background hydraulic conductivity Kbkg, drawn from a depth dependent lognormal distribution. A unique feature of the parameterization is that the variance of hydraulic conductivity is large when there is little rock moisture, and decreases with increasing saturation, mimicking flow through fractures. The new method is applied to seven wells locations on a steep (35 degrees) hill-slope in the Eel River watershed in Northern California, for the duration of six years and estimates of the model parameters are provided by assimilating, into Richards' equation, measurements of precipitation [mm] and water table depths [m] at 30-minute time intervals. The simulation results show that the new approach yields a good agreement of the rapid rise of the observed water table at the tested well locations. Furthermore, the water stored in the weathered bedrock is estimated to be in the range between 32% and 41%, which could

  9. Simulation modeling and preliminary analysis of TIMS data from the Carlin area and the northern Grapevine Mountains, Nevada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watson, Ken; Hummer-Miller, Susanne; Kruse, Fred A.

    1986-01-01

    A theoretical radiance model was employed together with laboratory data on a suite of igneous rock to evaluate various algorithms for processing Thermal Infrared Multispectral Scanner (TIMS) data. Two aspects of the general problem were examined: extraction of emissivity information from the observed TIMS radiance data, and how to use emissivity data in a way that is geologically meaningful. The four algorithms were evaluated for appropriate band combinations of TIMS data acquired on both day and night overflights of the Tuscarora Mountains, including the Carlin gold deposit, in north-central Nevada. Analysis of a color composited PC decorrelated image (Bands 3, 4, 5--blue/green/red) of the Northern Grapevine Mountains, Nevada, area showed some useful correlation with the regional geology. The thermal infrared region provides fundamental spectral information that can be used to discriminate the major rock types occurring on the Earth's surface.

  10. NORTHERN TANZANIA

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    inertia, water balance, physiological strength, and susceptibility to predation between adults .... Judd PW and Rose FL 1977 Aspects of the thermal biology of the Texas tortoise ... pctrdolis lmheoeki) and their conservation in northern Tanzania.

  11. Rumination in posttraumatic stress and growth after a natural disaster: a model from northern Chile 2014 earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leal-Soto, Francisco; Carmona-Halty, Marcos; Ferrer-Urbina, Rodrigo

    2016-01-01

    Background Traumatic experiences, such as natural disasters, produce multiple and serious impacts on people. Despite the traditional focus on negative consequences, in many cases there are also positive consequences, such as posttraumatic growth. Tedeschi and Calhoun proposed a model of posttraumatic growth that emphasizes the role of rumination after the basic beliefs breakdown due to the occurrence of a traumatic experience. Method A total of 238 volunteers affected by two major earthquakes and tsunami alerts in northern Chile on April 1 and 2, 2014, responded to an online survey measuring subjective severity, basic beliefs change, social share of emotion, rumination, posttraumatic stress, and posttraumatic growth. Results Path analyses reveal that posttraumatic stress goes through a negative change in basic beliefs, intrusive rumination, and deliberated rumination, meanwhile posttraumatic growth is only achieved directly from a positive change in basic beliefs and deliberated rumination. Discussion The model is consistent with the empirical model obtained in Chilean people affected by the earthquake and tsunami that occurred on 27 February, 2010, but it is slightly different and in a form that is more consistent with Tedeschi and Calhoun’s theoretical model. Both models remark on the role of deliberated rumination in posttraumatic growth and failure to progress from intrusive to deliberated rumination in posttraumatic stress, but the proposed one is more parsimonious and assumes subjective severity as an antecedent to basic belief changes. These conclusions must be considered in light of limitations that a cross-sectional design and the correlational nature of the statistical analysis carried out impose. Highlights of the article Role of subjective severity, change of basic beliefs, social sharing of emotion, and rumination on posttraumatic stress and growth were modeled from responses of people affected by the April 1–2, 2014, northern Chilean earthquakes

  12. Multi-site calibration, validation, and sensitivity analysis of the MIKE SHE Model for a large watershed in northern China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Wang

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Model calibration is essential for hydrologic modeling of large watersheds in a heterogeneous mountain environment. Little guidance is available for model calibration protocols for distributed models that aim at capturing the spatial variability of hydrologic processes. This study used the physically-based distributed hydrologic model, MIKE SHE, to contrast a lumped calibration protocol that used streamflow measured at one single watershed outlet to a multi-site calibration method which employed streamflow measurements at three stations within the large Chaohe River basin in northern China. Simulation results showed that the single-site calibrated model was able to sufficiently simulate the hydrographs for two of the three stations (Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of 0.65–0.75, and correlation coefficient 0.81–0.87 during the testing period, but the model performed poorly for the third station (Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient only 0.44. Sensitivity analysis suggested that streamflow of upstream area of the watershed was dominated by slow groundwater, whilst streamflow of middle- and down- stream areas by relatively quick interflow. Therefore, a multi-site calibration protocol was deemed necessary. Due to the potential errors and uncertainties with respect to the representation of spatial variability, performance measures from the multi-site calibration protocol slightly decreased for two of the three stations, whereas it was improved greatly for the third station. We concluded that multi-site calibration protocol reached a compromise in term of model performance for the three stations, reasonably representing the hydrographs of all three stations with Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient ranging from 0.59–072. The multi-site calibration protocol applied in the analysis generally has advantages to the single site calibration protocol.

  13. Soil erosion and nitrogen leaching in northern Vietnam: expression and modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Trinh Van Mai,

    2007-01-01

    Keywords:   Soil degradation, remote sensing, watershed, soil erosion model, paddy fields, terraces, water balance model, nitrogen balance model, geostatistics, rice-based systems,

  14. Soil erosion and nitrogen leaching in northern Vietnam: expression and modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Trinh Van Mai,

    2007-01-01

    Keywords:   Soil degradation, remote sensing, watershed, soil erosion model, paddy fields, terraces, water balance model, nitrogen balance model, geostatistics, rice-based systems, spatia

  15. Model suitability to assess regional potato yield patterns in northern Ecuador

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Soltani Largani, A.; Stoorvogel, J.J.; Veldkamp, A.

    2013-01-01

    A wide range of scenario studies aiming at rural development require regional patterns of crop yield. This study aims to evaluate three different modeling approaches for their suitability to assess regional potato yield patterns. The three model approaches include (1) an empirical model; (2) a proce

  16. Stone tools and foraging in northern Madagascar challenge Holocene extinction models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dewar, Robert E; Radimilahy, Chantal; Wright, Henry T; Jacobs, Zenobia; Kelly, Gwendolyn O; Berna, Francesco

    2013-07-30

    Past research on Madagascar indicates that village communities were established about AD 500 by people of both Indonesian and East African heritage. Evidence of earlier visits is scattered and contentious. Recent archaeological excavations in northern Madagascar provide evidence of occupational sites with microlithic stone technologies related to foraging for forest and coastal resources. A forager occupation of one site dates to earlier than 2000 B.C., doubling the length of Madagascar's known occupational history, and thus the time during which people exploited Madagascar's environments. We detail stratigraphy, chronology, and artifacts from two rock shelters. Ambohiposa near Iharana (Vohémar) on the northeast coast, yielded a stratified assemblage with small flakes, microblades, and retouched crescentic and trapezoidal tools, probably projectile elements, made on cherts and obsidian, some brought more that 200 km. (14)C dates are contemporary with the earliest villages. No food remains are preserved. Lakaton'i Anja near Antsiranana in the north yielded several stratified assemblages. The latest assemblage is well dated to A.D. 1050-1350, by (14)C and optically stimulated luminescence dating and pottery imported from the Near East and China. Below is a series of stratified assemblages similar to Ambohiposa. (14)C and optically stimulated luminescence dates indicate occupation from at least 2000 B.C. Faunal remains indicate a foraging pattern. Our evidence shows that foragers with a microlithic technology were active in Madagascar long before the arrival of farmers and herders and before many Late Holocene faunal extinctions. The differing effects of historically distinct economies must be identified and understood to reconstruct Holocene histories of human environmental impact.

  17. Stone tools and foraging in northern Madagascar challenge Holocene extinction models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dewar, Robert E.; Radimilahy, Chantal; Wright, Henry T.; Jacobs, Zenobia; Kelly, Gwendolyn O.; Berna, Francesco

    2013-01-01

    Past research on Madagascar indicates that village communities were established about AD 500 by people of both Indonesian and East African heritage. Evidence of earlier visits is scattered and contentious. Recent archaeological excavations in northern Madagascar provide evidence of occupational sites with microlithic stone technologies related to foraging for forest and coastal resources. A forager occupation of one site dates to earlier than 2000 B.C., doubling the length of Madagascar’s known occupational history, and thus the time during which people exploited Madagascar’s environments. We detail stratigraphy, chronology, and artifacts from two rock shelters. Ambohiposa near Iharana (Vohémar) on the northeast coast, yielded a stratified assemblage with small flakes, microblades, and retouched crescentic and trapezoidal tools, probably projectile elements, made on cherts and obsidian, some brought more that 200 km. 14C dates are contemporary with the earliest villages. No food remains are preserved. Lakaton’i Anja near Antsiranana in the north yielded several stratified assemblages. The latest assemblage is well dated to A.D. 1050–1350, by 14C and optically stimulated luminescence dating and pottery imported from the Near East and China. Below is a series of stratified assemblages similar to Ambohiposa. 14C and optically stimulated luminescence dates indicate occupation from at least 2000 B.C. Faunal remains indicate a foraging pattern. Our evidence shows that foragers with a microlithic technology were active in Madagascar long before the arrival of farmers and herders and before many Late Holocene faunal extinctions. The differing effects of historically distinct economies must be identified and understood to reconstruct Holocene histories of human environmental impact. PMID:23858456

  18. Constraining age and rate of deformation in the northern Bolivian Andes from cross sections, cooling ages, and thermokinematic modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    McQuarrie, N.; Ehlers, T. A.; Rak, A. J.

    2015-12-01

    A critical component in assessing the viability of proposed plate tectonic or geodynamic processes in regions of convergence is the expected or predicted age and rate of deformation in the overriding plate. Commonly, age of deformation is inferred through geochronology of foreland basin and wedge-top sedimentary rocks and bedrock thermochronometer cooling signals. In Bolivia the original pulse of deformation of the fold-thrust belt is argue to be as young as 38-25 Ma based on the age of synorogenic strata or as old as 65-45 Ma due to proposed foreland basin rocks deposited in the Bolivian Altiplano. The large discrepancies in proposed age, rate and magnitude of deformation through the Bolivian Andes limit our ability to relate age and rate of shortening to internal geodynamic or external plate tectonic processes. We evaluate permissible ranges in age of initiation and rate of deformation through a forward kinematic model of the northern Bolivian fold-thrust belt. Each step of deformation accounts for isostatic loading from thrust faults and subsequent erosional of structural highs. The kinematic model predicts an evolution of flexural basins into which synorogenic sediments are deposited allowing us to fully integrate age of exhumation and deposition to age and magnitude of deformation. By assigning an age to each deformation step, we create a range of velocity vectors that are input into the thermokinematic model Pecube, which predicts thermochronometer cooling histories based on kinematics, topography, thermal parameters and shortening rates. We match the pattern of predicted ages with the across strike pattern of measured zircon fission track, apatite fission track and apatite (U-Th)/ He cooling ages. The sensitivity of modeled thermochronologic data to the age at which deformation initiates indicate that northern Bolivian EC started deforming at 50 Ma and may have begun as early as 55 Ma. The acceptable velocity envelope for the modeled section permits either a

  19. Sources of high PM2.5 concentrations in Milan, Northern Italy: molecular marker data and CMB modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perrone, M G; Larsen, B R; Ferrero, L; Sangiorgi, G; De Gennaro, G; Udisti, R; Zangrando, R; Gambaro, A; Bolzacchini, E

    2012-01-01

    In Milan (MI), the largest city in Northern Italy, the annually average PM2.5 concentration is above 25 μg m(-3), the value that the EU established as a target for 2010, and the upper limit from 2015 onwards (2008/30/CE). Over a three-year period (2006-2009) PM concentrations and chemical compositions were measured in an urban site (MI), a rural site (OB) and a remote site (ASC) in Northern Italy. Chemical characterization (EC/OC, inorganic ions, elements, C20-C32 n-alkanes, C2-C5 mono and dicarboxylic acids, levoglucosan and PAHs) was carried out on PM2.5 samples from the three sites, and PM10 from MI. Molecular markers were used in Chemical Mass Balance (CMB) modelling to estimate the contributions of primary sources to OC, and then PM mass from each source was reconstructed in MI, OB and ASC for different seasons. Estimates of the traffic (TR) source contribution to PM2.5 mass ranged from 4.1 (± 2.0) μg m(-3) during the summer, to 13.3 (± 6.7) μg m(-3) during the winter in MI. TR was the main primary source for PM2.5 concentrations in MI (17-24%). Its contribution was lower at the OB site (7-9%) and at the remote ASC site (3-4%). TR is a local source, while biomass burning (BB) is a diffuse regional source in Northern Italy: during fall and winter, BB was 25-30% and 27-31% of PM2.5 at MI and OB respectively. Other primary sources accounted for a small amount of the PM2.5, i.e. natural gas combustion (0-1%), plant debris (0-4%), road dust (RD=0-4%; but 15% at ASC during winter and 10% of PM10 at MI during summer) and sea salt (0-1%). Secondary inorganic+organic aerosol constituted the major part of the PM2.5 mass during spring and summer (50-65%) at the three sites.

  20. Groundwater-flow model of the northern High Plains aquifer in Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, South Dakota, and Wyoming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peterson, Steven M.; Flynn, Amanda T.; Traylor, Jonathan P.

    2016-12-13

    The High Plains aquifer is a nationally important water resource underlying about 175,000 square miles in parts of eight states: Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma, Nebraska, New Mexico, South Dakota, Texas, and Wyoming. Droughts across much of the Northern High Plains from 2001 to 2007 have combined with recent (2004) legislative mandates to elevate concerns regarding future availability of groundwater and the need for additional information to support science-based water-resource management. To address these needs, the U.S. Geological Survey began the High Plains Groundwater Availability Study to provide a tool for water-resource managers and other stakeholders to assess the status and availability of groundwater resources.A transient groundwater-flow model was constructed using the U.S. Geological Survey modular three-dimensional finite-difference groundwater-flow model with Newton-Rhapson solver (MODFLOW–NWT). The model uses an orthogonal grid of 565 rows and 795 columns, and each grid cell measures 3,281 feet per side, with one variably thick vertical layer, simulated as unconfined. Groundwater flow was simulated for two distinct periods: (1) the period before substantial groundwater withdrawals, or before about 1940, and (2) the period of increasing groundwater withdrawals from May 1940 through April 2009. A soil-water-balance model was used to estimate recharge from precipitation and groundwater withdrawals for irrigation. The soil-water-balance model uses spatially distributed soil and landscape properties with daily weather data and estimated historical land-cover maps to calculate spatial and temporal variations in potential recharge. Mean annual recharge estimated for 1940–49, early in the history of groundwater development, and 2000–2009, late in the history of groundwater development, was 3.3 and 3.5 inches per year, respectively.Primary model calibration was completed using statistical techniques through parameter estimation using the parameter

  1. Short-term Influences on Suspended Particulate Matter Distribution in the Northern Gulf of Mexico: Satellite and Model Observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dong S. Ko

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available Energetic meteorological events such as frontal passages and hurricanes often impact coastal regions in the northern Gulf of Mexico that influence geochemical processes in the region. Satellite remote sensing data such as winds from QuikSCAT, suspended particulate matter (SPM concentrations derived from SeaWiFS and the outputs (sea level and surface ocean currents of a nested navy coastal ocean model (NCOM were combined to assess the effects of frontal passages between 23-28 March 2005 on the physical properties and the SPM characteristics in the northern Gulf of Mexico. Typical changes in wind speed and direction associated with frontal passages were observed in the latest 12.5 km wind product from QuikSCAT with easterly winds before the frontal passage undergoing systematic shifts in direction and speed and turning northerly, northwesterly during a weak and a strong front on 23 and 27 March, respectively. A quantitative comparison of model sea level results with tide gauge observations suggest better correlations near the delta than in the western part of the Gulf with elevated sea levels along the coast before the frontal passage and a large drop in sea level following the frontal passage on 27 March. Model results of surface currents suggested strong response to wind forcing with westward and onshore currents before the frontal passage reversing into eastward, southeastward direction over a six day period from 23 to 28 March 2005. Surface SPM distribution derived from SeaWiFS ocean color data for two clear days on 23 and 28 March 2005 indicated SPM plumes to be oriented with the current field with increasing concentrations in nearshore waters due to resuspension and discharge from the rivers and bays and its seaward transport following the frontal passage. The backscattering spectral slope γ, a parameter sensitive to particle size distribution also indicated lower γ values (larger particles in nearshore waters that decreased

  2. Precipitation and Air Pollution at Mountain and Plain Stations in Northern China: Insights Gained from Observations and Modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Guo, Jianping; Deng, Minjun; Fan, Jiwen; Li, Zhanqing; Chen, Qian; Zhai, Panmao; Dai, Zhijian; Li, Xiaowen

    2014-04-27

    We analyzed 40 year data sets of daily average visibility (a proxy for surface aerosol concentration) and hourly precipitation at seven weather stations, including three stations located on the Taihang Mountains, during the summertime in northern China. There was no significant trend in summertime total precipitation at almost all stations. However, light rain decreased, whereas heavy rain increased as visibility decreased over the period studied. The decrease in light rain was seen in both orographic-forced shallow clouds and mesoscale stratiform clouds. The consistent trends in observed changes in visibility, precipitation, and orographic factor appear to be a testimony to the effects of aerosols. The potential impact of large-scale environmental factors, such as precipitable water, convective available potential energy, and vertical wind shear, on precipitation was investigated. No direct links were found. To validate our observational hypothesis about aerosol effects, Weather Research and Forecasting model simulations with spectral-bin microphysics at the cloud-resolving scale were conducted. Model results confirmed the role of aerosol indirect effects in reducing the light rain amount and frequency in the mountainous area for both orographic-forced shallow clouds and mesoscale stratiform clouds and in eliciting a different response in the neighboring plains. The opposite response of light rain to the increase in pollution when there is no terrain included in the model suggests that orography is likely a significant factor contributing to the opposite trends in light rain seen in mountainous and plain areas.

  3. Potential Risk of Dengue and Chikungunya Outbreaks in Northern Italy Based on a Population Model of Aedes albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giorgio Guzzetta

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The rapid invasion and spread of Aedes albopictus (Skuse, 1894 within new continents and climatic ranges has created favorable conditions for the emergence of tropical arboviral diseases in the invaded areas. We used mosquito abundance data from 2014 collected across ten sites in northern Italy to calibrate a population model for Aedes albopictus and estimate the potential of imported human cases of chikungunya or dengue to generate the condition for their autochthonous transmission in the absence of control interventions. The model captured intra-year seasonality and heterogeneity across sites in mosquito abundance, based on local temperature patterns and the estimated site-specific mosquito habitat suitability. A robust negative correlation was found between the latter and local late spring precipitations, indicating a possible washout effect on larval breeding sites. The model predicts a significant risk of chikungunya outbreaks in most sites if a case is imported between the beginning of summer and up to mid-November, with an average outbreak probability between 4.9% and 25%, depending on the site. A lower risk is predicted for dengue, with an average probability between 4.2% and 10.8% for cases imported between mid-July and mid-September. This study shows the importance of an integrated entomological and medical surveillance for the evaluation of arboviral disease risk, which is a precondition for designing cost-effective vector control programs.

  4. Predictive habitat models derived from nest-box occupancy for the endangered Carolina northern flying squirrel in the southern Appalachians

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ford, W. Mark; Evans, A.M.; Odom, Richard H.; Rodrigue, Jane L.; Kelly, C.A.; Abaid, Nicole; Diggins, Corinne A.; Newcomb, Doug

    2016-01-01

    In the southern Appalachians, artificial nest-boxes are used to survey for the endangered Carolina northern flying squirrel (CNFS; Glaucomys sabrinus coloratus), a disjunct subspecies associated with high elevation (>1385 m) forests. Using environmental parameters diagnostic of squirrel habitat, we created 35 a priori occupancy models in the program PRESENCE for boxes surveyed in western North Carolina, 1996-2011. Our best approximating model showed CNFS denning associated with sheltered landforms and montane conifers, primarily red spruce Picea rubens. As sheltering decreased, decreasing distance to conifers was important. Area with a high probability (>0.5) of occupancy was distributed over 18662 ha of habitat, mostly across 10 mountain ranges. Because nest-box surveys underrepresented areas >1750 m and CNFS forage in conifers, we combined areas of high occupancy with conifer GIS coverages to create an additional distribution model of likely habitat. Regionally, above 1385 m, we determined that 31795 ha could be occupied by CNFS. Known occupied patches ranged from

  5. Calcareous Bio-Concretions in the Northern Adriatic Sea: Habitat Types, Environmental Factors that Influence Habitat Distributions, and Predictive Modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Falace, Annalisa; Kaleb, Sara; Curiel, Daniele; Miotti, Chiara; Galli, Giovanni; Querin, Stefano; Ballesteros, Enric; Solidoro, Cosimo; Bandelj, Vinko

    2015-01-01

    Habitat classifications provide guidelines for mapping and comparing marine resources across geographic regions. Calcareous bio-concretions and their associated biota have not been exhaustively categorized. Furthermore, for management and conservation purposes, species and habitat mapping is critical. Recently, several developments have occurred in the field of predictive habitat modeling, and multiple methods are available. In this study, we defined the habitats constituting northern Adriatic biogenic reefs and created a predictive habitat distribution model. We used an updated dataset of the epibenthic assemblages to define the habitats, which we verified using the fuzzy k-means (FKM) clustering method. Redundancy analysis was employed to model the relationships between the environmental descriptors and the FKM membership grades. Predictive modelling was carried out to map habitats across the basin. Habitat A (opportunistic macroalgae, encrusting Porifera, bioeroders) characterizes reefs closest to the coastline, which are affected by coastal currents and river inputs. Habitat B is distinguished by massive Porifera, erect Tunicata, and non-calcareous encrusting algae (Peyssonnelia spp.). Habitat C (non-articulated coralline, Polycitor adriaticus) is predicted in deeper areas. The onshore-offshore gradient explains the variability of the assemblages because of the influence of coastal freshwater, which is the main driver of nutrient dynamics. This model supports the interpretation of Habitat A and C as the extremes of a gradient that characterizes the epibenthic assemblages, while Habitat B demonstrates intermediate characteristics. Areas of transition are a natural feature of the marine environment and may include a mixture of habitats and species. The habitats proposed are easy to identify in the field, are related to different environmental features, and may be suitable for application in studies focused on other geographic areas. The habitat model outputs

  6. Calcareous Bio-Concretions in the Northern Adriatic Sea: Habitat Types, Environmental Factors that Influence Habitat Distributions, and Predictive Modeling.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Annalisa Falace

    Full Text Available Habitat classifications provide guidelines for mapping and comparing marine resources across geographic regions. Calcareous bio-concretions and their associated biota have not been exhaustively categorized. Furthermore, for management and conservation purposes, species and habitat mapping is critical. Recently, several developments have occurred in the field of predictive habitat modeling, and multiple methods are available. In this study, we defined the habitats constituting northern Adriatic biogenic reefs and created a predictive habitat distribution model. We used an updated dataset of the epibenthic assemblages to define the habitats, which we verified using the fuzzy k-means (FKM clustering method. Redundancy analysis was employed to model the relationships between the environmental descriptors and the FKM membership grades. Predictive modelling was carried out to map habitats across the basin. Habitat A (opportunistic macroalgae, encrusting Porifera, bioeroders characterizes reefs closest to the coastline, which are affected by coastal currents and river inputs. Habitat B is distinguished by massive Porifera, erect Tunicata, and non-calcareous encrusting algae (Peyssonnelia spp.. Habitat C (non-articulated coralline, Polycitor adriaticus is predicted in deeper areas. The onshore-offshore gradient explains the variability of the assemblages because of the influence of coastal freshwater, which is the main driver of nutrient dynamics. This model supports the interpretation of Habitat A and C as the extremes of a gradient that characterizes the epibenthic assemblages, while Habitat B demonstrates intermediate characteristics. Areas of transition are a natural feature of the marine environment and may include a mixture of habitats and species. The habitats proposed are easy to identify in the field, are related to different environmental features, and may be suitable for application in studies focused on other geographic areas. The habitat

  7. Development of allometric models for above and belowground biomass in swidden cultivation fallows of Northern Laos

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    McNicol, Iain M.; Berry, Nicholas J.; Bruun, Thilde Bech

    2015-01-01

    in this region, which we hypothesised would be a major carbon pool given that resprouting, and associated high root biomass, is a common physiological/morphological trait in regularly disturbed ecosystems. We found that a general model including tree diameter (DBH, cm) and height (H, m) was best for estimating...... models for the prediction of both above- and below-ground woody biomass in swidden systems based on a destructive harvest of 150 trees in Luang Prabang Province, Laos People's Democratic Republic (PDR). This study is the first to develop allometric models of root biomass for swidden landscapes...... height was less important for estimating root biomass, with models including only DBH performing best. Re-sprouting trees exhibited greater root biomass (BGB=0.355DBH1.732) compared to those growing from seed (0.016DBH2.597) meaning different root allometric models were developed...

  8. Atmospheric dust modeling from meso to global scales with the online NMMB/BSC-Dust model – Part 2: Experimental campaigns in Northern Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Haustein

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available The new NMMB/BSC-Dust model is intended to provide short to medium-range weather and dust forecasts from regional to global scales. It is an online model in which the dust aerosol dynamics and physics are solved at each model time step. The companion paper (Pérez et al., 2011 develops the dust model parameterizations and provides daily to annual evaluations of the model for its global and regional configurations. Modeled aerosol optical depth (AOD was evaluated against AERONET Sun photometers over Northern Africa, Middle East and Europe with correlations around 0.6–0.7 on average without dust data assimilation. In this paper we analyze in detail the behavior of the model using data from the Saharan Mineral dUst experiment (SAMUM-1 in 2006 and the Bodélé Dust Experiment (BoDEx in 2005. AOD from satellites and Sun photometers, vertically resolved extinction coefficients from lidars and particle size distributions at the ground and in the troposphere are used, complemented by wind profile data and surface meteorological measurements. All simulations were performed at the regional scale for the Northern African domain at the expected operational horizontal resolution of 25 km. Model results for SAMUM-1 generally show good agreement with satellite data over the most active Saharan dust sources. The model reproduces the AOD from Sun photometers close to sources and after long-range transport, and the dust size spectra at different height levels. At this resolution, the model is not able to reproduce a large haboob that occurred during the campaign. Some deficiencies are found concerning the vertical dust distribution related to the representation of the mixing height in the atmospheric part of the model. For the BoDEx episode, we found the diurnal temperature cycle to be strongly dependant on the soil moisture, which is underestimated in the NCEP analysis used for model initialization. The low level jet (LLJ and the dust AOD over the Bodélé are

  9. Atmospheric dust modeling from meso to global scales with the online NMMB/BSC-Dust model – Part 2: Experimental campaigns in Northern Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Haustein

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available The new online NMMB/BSC-Dust model is intended to provide short to medium-range weather and dust forecasts from regional to global scales. The companion paper Pérez et al., 2011 develops the dust model parameterizations and provides daily to annual evaluations of the model for its global and regional configurations. Modeled aerosol optical depth (AOD was evaluated against AERONET Sun photometers over Northern Africa, Middle East and Europe with correlations around 0.6–0.7 on average without dust data assimilation. In this paper we analyze in detail the behavior of the model using data from the Saharan Mineral dUst experiment (SAMUM-1 in 2006 and the Bodélé Dust Experiment (BoDEx in 2005. AOD from satellites and Sun photometers, vertically resolved extinction coefficients from lidars and particle size distributions at the ground and in the troposphere are used, complemented by wind profile data and surface meteorological measurements.

    All simulations were performed at the regional scale for the Northern African domain at the expected operational resolution of 25 km. Model results for SAMUM-1 generally show good agreement with satellite data over the most active Saharan dust sources. The model reproduces the AOD from Sun photometers close to sources and after long-range transport, and the dust size spectra at different height levels. At this resolution, the model is not able to reproduce a large haboob occurred during the campaign. Some deficiencies are found concerning the vertical distribution. The mixing height is underestimated which may be attributed to poor soil initial conditions. For the BoDEx period, particular attention is paid to understand the dust model behavior in relation with the low level jet (LLJ in the Bodélé. The diurnal temperature cycle depends strongly on the soil moisture, which is underestimated in the NCEP analysis used for model initialization. The daily maximum surface wind speeds are underestimated up

  10. Atmospheric Dust Modeling from Meso to Global Scales with the Online NMMB/BSC-Dust Model Part 2: Experimental Campaigns in Northern Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haustein, K.; Perez, C.; Baldasano, J. M.; Jorba, O.; Basart, S.; Miller, R. L.; Janjic, Z.; Black, T.; Nickovic, S.; Todd, M. C.; Washington, R.; Muller, D.; Tesche, M.; Weinzierl, B.; Esselborn, M.; Schladitz, A.

    2012-01-01

    The new NMMB/BSC-Dust model is intended to provide short to medium-range weather and dust forecasts from regional to global scales. It is an online model in which the dust aerosol dynamics and physics are solved at each model time step. The companion paper (Perez et al., 2011) develops the dust model parameterizations and provides daily to annual evaluations of the model for its global and regional configurations. Modeled aerosol optical depth (AOD) was evaluated against AERONET Sun photometers over Northern Africa, Middle East and Europe with correlations around 0.6-0.7 on average without dust data assimilation. In this paper we analyze in detail the behavior of the model using data from the Saharan Mineral dUst experiment (SAMUM-1) in 2006 and the Bodele Dust Experiment (BoDEx) in 2005. AOD from satellites and Sun photometers, vertically resolved extinction coefficients from lidars and particle size distributions at the ground and in the troposphere are used, complemented by wind profile data and surface meteorological measurements. All simulations were performed at the regional scale for the Northern African domain at the expected operational horizontal resolution of 25 km. Model results for SAMUM-1 generally show good agreement with satellite data over the most active Saharan dust sources. The model reproduces the AOD from Sun photometers close to sources and after long-range transport, and the dust size spectra at different height levels. At this resolution, the model is not able to reproduce a large haboob that occurred during the campaign. Some deficiencies are found concerning the vertical dust distribution related to the representation of the mixing height in the atmospheric part of the model. For the BoDEx episode, we found the diurnal temperature cycle to be strongly dependant on the soil moisture, which is underestimated in the NCEP analysis used for model initialization. The low level jet (LLJ) and the dust AOD over the Bodélé are well reproduced

  11. Back to the Future: Do Lessons from Finland Point the Way to a Return to Model Schools for Northern Ireland?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moran, Anne; Clarke, Linda

    2012-01-01

    The paper examines the school-based element of initial teacher education (ITE) and the ways in which it contributes to the professional learning of student teachers in Finland (University of Helsinki) and Northern Ireland (University of Ulster). In particular it seeks to assess the potential of Training Schools for Northern Ireland. Universities…

  12. A weeding-duration model for Abies sachalinensis plantations in Hokkaido, northern Japan

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Masahiko Nakagawa

    2013-01-01

    I developed a weeding-duration model for Sakhalin fir (Abies sachalinensis (Fr.Schmidt) Masters) plantations that employs a generalized linear model.The number of years following planting that weeding is necessary is the response variable,and elevation,slope steepness,maximum snow depth,annual precipitation,geology,soil,site index,slope aspect,and vegetation type are explanatory variables.Among the explanatory variables,geology,soil,slope aspect,and vegetation type are categorical data.A Poisson distribution is assumed for the response variable,with a log-link function.Elevation,slope steepness,maximum snow depth,annual precipitation,site index,and vegetation type had a significant effect on weeding duration.Among the eight models with the smallest Akaike information criterion (AIC),I chose the model with no multicollinearity among the explanatory variables.The weeding-duration model includes site index,maximum snow depth,slope steepness (angle)and vegetation type as explanatory variables; elevation and annual precipitation were not included in the selected model because of multicollinearity with maximum snow depth.This model is useful for cost-benefit analyses of afforestation or reforestation with Abies sachalinensis.

  13. Applying surrogate species presences to correct sample bias in species distribution models: a case study using the Pilbara population of the Northern Quoll

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shaun W. Molloy

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available The management of populations of threatened species requires the capacity to identify areas of high habitat value. We developed a high resolution species distribution model (SDM for the endangered Pilbara northern quoll Dasyurus hallucatus, population using MaxEnt software and a combined suite of bioclimatic and landscape variables. Once common throughout much of northern Australia, this marsupial carnivore has recently declined throughout much of its former range and is listed as endangered by the IUCN. Other than the potential threats presented by climate change, and the invasive cane toad Rhinella marina (which has not yet arrived in the Pilbara. The Pilbara population is also impacted by introduced predators, pastoral and mining activities. To account for sample bias resulting from targeted surveys unevenly spread through the region, a pseudo-absence bias layer was developed from presence records of other critical weight-range non-volant mammals. The resulting model was then tested using the biomod2 package which produces ensemble models from individual models created with different algorithms. This ensemble model supported the distribution determined by the bias compensated MaxEnt model with a covariance of of 86% between models with both models largely identifying the same areas as high priority habitat. The primary product of this exercise is a high resolution SDM which corroborates and elaborates on our understanding of the ecology and habitat preferences of the Pilbara Northern Quoll population thereby improving our capacity to manage this population in the face of future threats.

  14. Modelling impacts of climate and deposition changes on nitrogen fluxes in northern catchments of Norway and Finland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ø. Kaste

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available The Integrated Nitrogen model for Catchments (INCA was applied to three upland catchments in Norway and Finland to assess the possible impacts of climate change and nitrogen (N deposition on concentrations and fluxes of N in streamwater in cold regions of Europe. The study sites cover gradients in climate and N deposition from the southern boreal Øygard Brook (2.6 km2 in SW Norway, via the southern/middle boreal Simojoki River (3610 km2 in northern Finland to the sub-arctic Dalelva Brook (3.2 km2 in northern Norway. The INCA scenario simulations included future N deposition scenarios (current legislation and maximum feasible reduction and climate scenarios for 2050 (ECHAM4/OPYC3; HadCM3 treated separately and in combination. As a result of climate change, the INCA model predicted markedly reduced duration and amounts of snow cover in all catchments. The occurrence of winter rainfall and melting periods was predicted to become more frequent so that more frequent floods in winter will to a large extent replace the regular snowmelt flood in spring. At the northernmost catchment, Dalelva, the predicted temperature increase might result in a doubling of the net mineralisation rate, thereby greatly increasing the amount of available inorganic N. At all catchments, the increased N supply was predicted to be largely balanced by a corresponding increase in N retention, and relatively small increases in NO3- leaching rates were predicted. This dynamic relationship is, however, strongly dependent on the temperature responses of the key N transformation processes modelled. A future reduction in N emissions and deposition, as agreed under current legislation, would have pronounced effects on concentrations of NO3- in streamwater at the southernmost catchment, Øygard, even following a climate change around 2050. At the more remote Dalelva and Simojoki catchments, the N emission reductions will be small compared to the internal N recycling processes, and

  15. Multiscale Modeling of Multi-decadal Trends in Ozone across the Northern Hemisphere & United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Both observational and modeling studies have demonstrated that pollutants near the Earth’s surface can be convectively lofted to higher altitudes where strong winds can efficiently transport them from one continent to another, thereby impacting air quality on intercontinent...

  16. A plastic rheology phenomenological 201 . model that explains the Andes evolution in northern Argentina

    OpenAIRE

    Introcaso, Antonio; Giménez, Mario; Martínez, María Patricia; Ruiz, Francisco

    2012-01-01

    A plastic rheology, partially phenomenological model is presented to explain the isostatically compensated Andean relief formation. This model considers a combination of lithospheric heating with long period relaxation and successive crustal shortenings on a north section of Argentina located at 24°S latitude. The present size of the Andean root –related to the Andes construction– was obtained by inverting regionalized Bouguer anomalies, also consistent with geoi...

  17. High LMD GCM Resolution Modeling of the Seasonal Evolution of the Martian Northern Permanent Cap: Comparison with Mars Express OMEGA Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levrard, B.; Forget, F.; Montmessin, F.; Schmitt, B.; Doute, S.; Langevin, Y.; Poulet, F.; Bibring, J. P.; Gondet, B.

    2005-01-01

    Analyses of imaging data from Mariner, Viking and MGS have shown that surface properties (albedo, temperature) of the northern cap present significant differences within the summer season and between Mars years. These observations include differential brightening and/or darkening between polar areas from the end of the spring to midsummer. These differences are attributed to changes in grain size or dust content of surface ice. To better understand the summer behavior of the permanent northern polar cap, we perfomed a high resolution modeling (approximately 1 deg x 1 deg.) of northern cap in the Martian Climate/water cycle as simulated by the Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique (LMD) global climate model. We compare the predicted properties of the surface ice (ice thickness, temperature) with the Mars Express Omega summer observations of the northern cap. albedo and thermal inertia svariations model. In particular, albedo variations could be constrained by OMEGA data. Meteorological predictions of the LMD GCM wil be presented at the conference to interpret the unprecedently resolved OMEGA observations. The specific evolution of regions of interest (cap center, Chasma Boreal...) and the possibility of late summer global cap brightening will be discussed.

  18. 2.5D S-wave velocity model of the TESZ area in northern Poland from receiver function analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilde-Piorko, Monika; Polkowski, Marcin; Grad, Marek

    2016-04-01

    Receiver function (RF) locally provides the signature of sharp seismic discontinuities and information about the shear wave (S-wave) velocity distribution beneath the seismic station. The data recorded by "13 BB Star" broadband seismic stations (Grad et al., 2015) and by few PASSEQ broadband seismic stations (Wilde-Piórko et al., 2008) are analysed to investigate the crustal and upper mantle structure in the Trans-European Suture Zone (TESZ) in northern Poland. The TESZ is one of the most prominent suture zones in Europe separating the young Palaeozoic platform from the much older Precambrian East European craton. Compilation of over thirty deep seismic refraction and wide angle reflection profiles, vertical seismic profiling in over one hundred thousand boreholes and magnetic, gravity, magnetotelluric and thermal methods allowed for creation a high-resolution 3D P-wave velocity model down to 60 km depth in the area of Poland (Grad et al. 2016). On the other hand the receiver function methods give an opportunity for creation the S-wave velocity model. Modified ray-tracing method (Langston, 1977) are used to calculate the response of the structure with dipping interfaces to the incoming plane wave with fixed slowness and back-azimuth. 3D P-wave velocity model are interpolated to 2.5D P-wave velocity model beneath each seismic station and synthetic back-azimuthal sections of receiver function are calculated for different Vp/Vs ratio. Densities are calculated with combined formulas of Berteussen (1977) and Gardner et al. (1974). Next, the synthetic back-azimuthal sections of RF are compared with observed back-azimuthal sections of RF for "13 BB Star" and PASSEQ seismic stations to find the best 2.5D S-wave models down to 60 km depth. National Science Centre Poland provided financial support for this work by NCN grant DEC-2011/02/A/ST10/00284.

  19. Extracting a common high frequency signal from Northern Quebec black spruce tree-rings with a Bayesian hierarchical model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J.-J. Boreux

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available One basic premise of dendroclimatology is that tree rings can be viewed as climate proxies, i.e. rings are assumed to contain some hidden information about past climate. From a statistical perspective, this extraction problem can be understood as the search of a hidden variable which represents the common signal within a collection of tree-ring width series. Classical average-based techniques used in dendrochronology have been applied to estimate the mean behavior of this latent variable. Still, depending on tree species, regional factors and statistical methods, a precise quantification of uncertainties associated to the hidden variable distribution is difficult to assess. To model the error propagation throughout the extraction procedure, we propose and study a Bayesian hierarchical model that focuses on extracting an inter-annual high frequency signal. Our method is applied to black spruce (Picea mariana tree-rings recorded in Northern Quebec and compared to a classical average-based techniques used by dendrochronologists (Cook and Kairiukstis, 1992.

  20. Modelling and Analysis of Hydrodynamics and Water Quality for Rivers in the Northern Cold Region of China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gula Tang

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available In this study, the Mudan River, which is the most typical river in the northern cold region of China was selected as the research object; Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code (EFDC was adopted to construct a new two-dimensional water quality model for the urban sections of the Mudan River, and concentrations of CODCr and NH3N during ice-covered and open-water periods were simulated and analyzed. Results indicated that roughness coefficient and comprehensive pollutant decay rate were significantly different in those periods. To be specific, the roughness coefficient in the ice-covered period was larger than that of the open-water period, while the decay rate within the former period was smaller than that in the latter. In addition, according to the analysis of the simulated results, the main reasons for the decay rate reduction during the ice-covered period are temperature drop, upstream inflow decrease and ice layer cover; among them, ice sheet is the major contributor of roughness increase. These aspects were discussed in more detail in this work. The model could be generalized to hydrodynamic water quality process simulation researches on rivers in other cold regions as well.

  1. The Application of Remotely Sensed Data and Models to Benefit Conservation and Restoration Along the Northern Gulf of Mexico Coast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quattrochi, D. A.; Estes, M. G., Jr.; Al-Hamdan, M. Z.; Thom, R.; Woodruff, D.; Judd, C.; Ellis, J. T.; Swann, R.; Johnson, H., III

    2010-12-01

    New data, tools, and capabilities for decision making are significant needs in the northern Gulf of Mexico and other coastal areas. The goal of this project is to support NASA’s Earth Science Mission Directorate and its Applied Science Program and the Gulf of Mexico Alliance by producing and providing NASA data and products that will benefit decision making by coastal resource managers and other end users in the Gulf region. Data and research products are being developed to assist coastal resource managers adapt and plan for changing conditions by evaluating how climate changes and urban expansion will impact land cover/land use (LCLU), hydrodynamics, water properties, and shallow water habitats; to identify priority areas for conservation and restoration; and to distribute datasets to end-users and facilitating user interaction with models. The proposed host sites for data products are NOAA’s National Coastal Data Development Center Regional Ecosystem Data Management, and Mississippi-Alabama Habitat Database. Tools will be available on the Gulf of Mexico Regional Collaborative website with links to data portals to enable end users to employ models and datasets to develop and evaluate LCLU and climate scenarios of particular interest. These data will benefit the Mobile Bay National Estuary Program in ongoing efforts to protect and restore the Fish River watershed and around Weeks Bay National Estuarine Research Reserve. The usefulness of data products and tools will be demonstrated at an end-user workshop.

  2. Examining Social Adaptations in a Volatile Landscape in Northern Mongolia via the Agent-Based Model Ger Grouper

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Julia K. Clark

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The environment of the mountain-steppe-taiga of northern Mongolia is often characterized as marginal because of the high altitude, highly variable precipitation levels, low winter temperatures, and periodic droughts coupled with severe winter storms (known as dzuds. Despite these conditions, herders have inhabited this landscape for thousands of years, and hunter-gatherer-fishers before that. One way in which the risks associated with such a challenging and variable landscape are mitigated is through social networks and inter-family cooperation. We present an agent-based simulation, Ger Grouper, to examine how households have mitigated these risks through cooperation. The Ger Grouper simulation takes into account locational decisions of households, looks at fission/fusion dynamics of households and how those relate to environmental pressures, and assesses how degrees of relatedness can influence sharing of resources during harsh winters. This model, coupled with the traditional archaeological and ethnographic methods, helps shed light on the links between early Mongolian pastoralist adaptations and the environment. While preliminary results are promising, it is hoped that further development of this model will be able to characterize changing land-use patterns as social and political networks developed.

  3. The Application of Remotely Sensed Data and Models to Benefit Conservation and Restoration Along the Northern Gulf of Mexico Coast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quattrochi, Dale; Estes, Maurice, Jr.; Al-Hamdan, Mohammad; Thom, Ron; Woodruff, Dana; Judd, Chaeli; Ellis, Jean; Swann, Roberta; Johnson, Hoyt, III

    2010-01-01

    New data, tools, and capabilities for decision making are significant needs in the northern Gulf of Mexico and other coastal areas. The goal of this project is to support NASA s Earth Science Mission Directorate and its Applied Science Program and the Gulf of Mexico Alliance by producing and providing NASA data and products that will benefit decision making by coastal resource managers and other end users in the Gulf region. Data and research products are being developed to assist coastal resource managers adapt and plan for changing conditions by evaluating how climate changes and urban expansion will impact land cover/land use (LCLU), hydrodynamics, water properties, and shallow water habitats; to identify priority areas for conservation and restoration; and to distribute datasets to end-users and facilitating user interaction with models. The proposed host sites for data products are NOAA s National Coastal Data Development Center Regional Ecosystem Data Management, and Mississippi-Alabama Habitat Database. Tools will be available on the Gulf of Mexico Regional Collaborative website with links to data portals to enable end users to employ models and datasets to develop and evaluate LCLU and climate scenarios of particular interest. These data will benefit the Mobile Bay National Estuary Program in ongoing efforts to protect and restore the Fish River watershed and around Weeks Bay National Estuarine Research Reserve. The usefulness of data products and tools will be demonstrated at an end-user workshop.

  4. Modelling and Analysis of Hydrodynamics and Water Quality for Rivers in the Northern Cold Region of China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Gula; Zhu, Yunqiang; Wu, Guozheng; Li, Jing; Li, Zhao-Liang; Sun, Jiulin

    2016-01-01

    In this study, the Mudan River, which is the most typical river in the northern cold region of China was selected as the research object; Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code (EFDC) was adopted to construct a new two-dimensional water quality model for the urban sections of the Mudan River, and concentrations of CODCr and NH3N during ice-covered and open-water periods were simulated and analyzed. Results indicated that roughness coefficient and comprehensive pollutant decay rate were significantly different in those periods. To be specific, the roughness coefficient in the ice-covered period was larger than that of the open-water period, while the decay rate within the former period was smaller than that in the latter. In addition, according to the analysis of the simulated results, the main reasons for the decay rate reduction during the ice-covered period are temperature drop, upstream inflow decrease and ice layer cover; among them, ice sheet is the major contributor of roughness increase. These aspects were discussed in more detail in this work. The model could be generalized to hydrodynamic water quality process simulation researches on rivers in other cold regions as well. PMID:27070631

  5. Extracting a common high frequency signal from northern Quebec black spruce tree-rings with a Bayesian hierarchical model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J.-J. Boreux

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available Dendrochronology, the scientific dating method based on the analysis of tree-ring growth patterns, has been frequently applied in climatology. The basic premise of dendroclimatology is that tree rings can be viewed as climate proxies, i.e. rings are assumed to contain some hidden information about past climate. From a statistical perspective, this extraction problem can be understood as the search of a hidden variable which represents the common signal within a collection of tree-ring width series. Classical average-based techniques used in dendrochronology have been, with different degrees of success (depending on tree species, regional factors and statistical methods, applied to estimate the mean behavior of this latent variable. Still, a precise quantification of uncertainties associated to the hidden variable distribution is difficult to assess. To model the error propagation throughout the extraction procedure, we propose and study a Bayesian hierarchical model that focuses on extracting an inter-annual high frequency signal. Our method is applied to black spruce (Picea mariana tree-rings recorded in northern Quebec and compared to a classical average-based techniques used by dendrochronologists.

  6. The variability, structure and energy conversion of the northern hemisphere traveling waves simulated in a Mars general circulation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Huiqun; Toigo, Anthony D.

    2016-06-01

    Investigations of the variability, structure and energetics of the m = 1-3 traveling waves in the northern hemisphere of Mars are conducted with the MarsWRF general circulation model. Using a simple, annually repeatable dust scenario, the model reproduces many general characteristics of the observed traveling waves. The simulated m = 1 and m = 3 traveling waves show large differences in terms of their structures and energetics. For each representative wave mode, the geopotential signature maximizes at a higher altitude than the temperature signature, and the wave energetics suggests a mixed baroclinic-barotropic nature. There is a large contrast in wave energetics between the near-surface and higher altitudes, as well as between the lower latitudes and higher latitudes at high altitudes. Both barotropic and baroclinic conversions can act as either sources or sinks of eddy kinetic energy. Band-pass filtered transient eddies exhibit strong zonal variations in eddy kinetic energy and various energy transfer terms. Transient eddies are mainly interacting with the time mean flow. However, there appear to be non-negligible wave-wave interactions associated with wave mode transitions. These interactions include those between traveling waves and thermal tides and those among traveling waves.

  7. Incipient mantle delamination, active tectonics and crustal thickening in Northern Morocco: Insights from gravity data and numerical modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baratin, Laura-May; Mazzotti, Stéphane; Chéry, Jean; Vernant, Philippe; Tahayt, Abdelilah; Mourabit, Taoufik

    2016-11-01

    The Betic-Rif orocline surrounding the Alboran Sea, the westernmost tip of the Mediterranean Sea, accommodates the NW-SE convergence between the Nubia and Eurasia plates. Recent GPS observations indicate a ∼4 mm/yr SW motion of the Rif Mountains, relative to stable Nubia, incompatible with a simple two-plate model. New gravity data acquired in this study define a pronounced negative Bouguer anomaly south of the Rif, interpreted as a ∼40 km-thick crust in a state of non-isostatic equilibrium. We study the correlation between these present-day kinematic and geodynamic processes using a finite-element code to model in 2-D the first-order behavior of a lithosphere affected by a downward normal traction (representing the pull of a high-density body in the upper mantle). We show that intermediate viscosities for the lower crust and uppermost mantle (1021-1022Pas) allow an efficient coupling between the mantle and the base of the brittle crust, thus enabling (1) the conversion of vertical movement, resulting from the downward traction, to horizontal movement and (2) shortening in the brittle upper crust. Our results show that incipient delamination of the Nubian continental lithosphere, linked to slab pull, can explain the present-day abnormal tectonics, contribute to the gravity anomaly observed in northern Morocco, and give insight into recent tectonics in the Western Mediterranean region.

  8. Looking Forward: Using Scenario Modeling to Support Regional Land Use Planning in Northern Yukon, Canada

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeff Hamm

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Regional land use planning provides opportunities for governments, land users, and stakeholders to consider multiple land and resource interests over large geographic areas and meaningful time periods. The broad and integrative nature of regional planning is therefore well suited to assessing the potential cumulative effects of current and future land use activity. For this reason, cumulative effects assessment models and management concepts are playing an increasingly important role in regional planning. We describe how the ALCES® landscape cumulative effects simulation model was used to explore possible outcomes of an oil and gas scenario in the Eagle Plain basin of the North Yukon Planning Region of Yukon Territory, Canada. Scenario modeling was conducted to facilitate informed discussion about key land use issues and practices, potential levels of landscape change, and possible socioeconomic benefits and environmental impacts. Modeling results supported the sustainable development and cumulative effects management recommendations of the North Yukon Regional Land Use Plan. Land use scenario modeling, as applied in this project, was found to be an effective approach for establishing sustainable development guidelines through a regional planning process.

  9. Modelling the ocean circulation on the West Greenland shelf with special emphasis on northern shrimp recruitment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hvid Ribergaard, Mads; Anker Pedersen, Søren; Ådlandsvik, Bjørn; Kliem, Nicolai

    2004-08-01

    The ocean circulation on the West Greenland shelf are modelled using a 3D finite element circulation model forced by wind data from the Danish Meteorological Institute-High-Resolution Limited Area Model operational atmospheric model for the Greenland area and tides at the open boundary. Residual anticyclonic eddies are generated around the shelf banks north of 64∘N and areas of permanent upwelling are located west of the shelf banks. The potential distances of shrimp larvae transport from larval release to settling at the bottom were studied, using a particle-tracking model. Particles released (hatched shrimp larvae) south of 62∘N had a probability of about 2% of being lost to the Canadian Shelf, whereas for particles released north of 64∘N almost none were lost from the West Greenland Shelf. The particles tended to have long retention times at the shelf banks caused by the residual anticyclonic eddies. The retention times increased slightly for particles tracked at depths from 80 to 30 m with minor implications for potential transport distances of larval shrimp and plankton.

  10. Morphodynamics video monitoring and modelling of storm events at Jesolo, Northern Adriatic Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Archetti, Renata; Bonaldo, Davide; Carniel, Sandro; Parlagreco, Luca

    2014-05-01

    Near-shore zone morphodynamic assessment is crucial for beach management and hinterland protection against flooding. To this aim, high resolution coastal models are a useful tool, as they allow to couple waves, currents and sediment transport processes for simulating short term morphodynamics and coastal flooding due to extreme storm events. Calibration and validation of high resolution modelling needs coastal in-situ observations. The collection of data representative of the state of the coastal environment, essential for proper set up and calibration of the numerical models, is nonetheless a challenging and expensive task. In the framework of the Italian Flagship Project RITMARE—the Italian Research for the Sea, Subproject 3 (Coastal Waters), Workpackage 4 (Coastal Oceanographic Modeling), the North Adriatic littoral zone has been identified as one Strategic Test Area for the study of coastal dynamics and for the collection of a time series of integrated of integrated measurements to support comprehensive, detailed insight on coastal circulation, wave dynamics, sediment transport and coastal erosion. More specifically, this activity proposes and validates a system for the monitoring and modelling of hydrodynamics and morphodynamics at the beach of Jesolo, about 30 km NE Venice. The system combines a video installation and a 2DH numerical model to simultaneously provide shoreline changes and maps of nearshore waves and currents and sediment transport. In this way the system can cope with issues such as beach flooding, shoreline evolution and morphodynamic nearshore changes. The proposed poster will present first results of wave - currents - sediment simulations with the software Mike21, during selected storm events, and validation of results with in situ observation (shoreline, bar position) collected by the new video monitoring station.

  11. Thermodynamic and dynamic linkage between the inter-model spread of Arctic sea ice concentrations and Northern Hemisphere atmospheric and oceanic circulations in CMIP5 models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheung, Ho Nam; Keenlyside, Noel; Omrani, Nour-Eddine

    2017-04-01

    While all CMIP5 models simulate the decline of Arctic sea ice concentrations (SIC) in a warming climate, the magnitude of such changes has a large inter-model spread that contributes to the uncertainty of projected climate change. It is thus important to understand the underlying thermodynamic and dynamic causes of the inter-model spread. In this presentation, we will use the budget analysis to quantify how much the large-scale thermodynamic and dynamic factors contributes to the inter-model spread of SIC over the Arctic in the historical run of CMIP5 models. Our preliminary results show that the primary factor is the thermodynamic processes related to the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, and the secondary factor is the wind-driven circulations related to the NAO and the Aleutian low. The dominant spatial patterns linking the inter-model spread of SIC and these factors could be obtained from the SVD analysis. We will also discuss the linkage between the inter-model spread of SIC and the large-scale circulation features over the Northern Hemisphere.

  12. Modeling spatial patterns of limits to production of deposit-feeders and ectothermic predators in the northern Bering Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lovvorn, James R.; Jacob, Ute; North, Christopher A.; Kolts, Jason M.; Grebmeier, Jacqueline M.; Cooper, Lee W.; Cui, Xuehua

    2015-03-01

    Network models can help generate testable predictions and more accurate projections of food web responses to environmental change. Such models depend on predator-prey interactions throughout the network. When a predator currently consumes all of its prey's production, the prey's biomass may change substantially with loss of the predator or invasion by others. Conversely, if production of deposit-feeding prey is limited by organic matter inputs, system response may be predictable from models of primary production. For sea floor communities of shallow Arctic seas, increased temperature could lead to invasion or loss of predators, while reduced sea ice or change in wind-driven currents could alter organic matter inputs. Based on field data and models for three different sectors of the northern Bering Sea, we found a number of cases where all of a prey's production was consumed but the taxa involved varied among sectors. These differences appeared not to result from numerical responses of predators to abundance of preferred prey. Rather, they appeared driven by stochastic variations in relative biomass among taxa, due largely to abiotic conditions that affect colonization and early post-larval survival. Oscillatory tendencies of top-down versus bottom-up interactions may augment these variations. Required inputs of settling microalgae exceeded existing estimates of annual primary production by 50%; thus, assessing limits to bottom-up control depends on better corrections of satellite estimates to account for production throughout the water column. Our results suggest that in this Arctic system, stochastic abiotic conditions outweigh deterministic species interactions in food web responses to a varying environment.

  13. Developing Model Constraints on Northern Extra-Tropical Carbon Cycling Based on measurements of the Abundance and Isotopic Composition of Atmospheric CO2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Keeling, Ralph [UCSD-SIO

    2014-12-12

    The objective of this project was to perform CO2 data syntheses and modeling activities to address two central questions: 1) how much has the seasonal cycle in atmospheric CO2 at northern high latitudes changed since the 1960s, and 2) how well do prognostic biospheric models represent these changes. This project also supported the continuation of the Scripps time series of CO2 isotopes and concentration at ten baseline stations distributed globally.

  14. Investigating the Role of Biogeochemical Processes in the Northern High Latitudes on Global Climate Feedbacks Using an Efficient Scalable Earth System Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jain, Atul K. [Univ. of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign, IL (United States)

    2016-09-14

    The overall objectives of this DOE funded project is to combine scientific and computational challenges in climate modeling by expanding our understanding of the biogeophysical-biogeochemical processes and their interactions in the northern high latitudes (NHLs) using an earth system modeling (ESM) approach, and by adopting an adaptive parallel runtime system in an ESM to achieve efficient and scalable climate simulations through improved load balancing algorithms.

  15. Comparisons of measured and modelled ozone deposition to forests in northern Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Touvinen, J. P.; Simpson, D.; Mikkelsen, Teis Nørgaard

    2001-01-01

    The performance of a new dry deposition module, developedfor the European-scale mapping and modelling of ozone flux to vegetation, was tested against micrometeorological ozone and water vapour flux measurements. The measurement data are for twoconiferous (Scots pine in Finland, Norway spruce in D...

  16. Acid mine drainage risks - A modeling approach to siting mine facilities in Northern Minnesota USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Myers, Tom

    2016-02-01

    Most watershed-scale planning for mine-caused contamination concerns remediation of past problems while future planning relies heavily on engineering controls. As an alternative, a watershed scale groundwater fate and transport model for the Rainy Headwaters, a northeastern Minnesota watershed, has been developed to examine the risks of leaks or spills to a pristine downstream watershed. The model shows that the risk depends on the location and whether the source of the leak is on the surface or from deeper underground facilities. Underground sources cause loads that last longer but arrive at rivers after a longer travel time and have lower concentrations due to dilution and attenuation. Surface contaminant sources could cause much more short-term damage to the resource. Because groundwater dominates baseflow, mine contaminant seepage would cause the most damage during low flow periods. Groundwater flow and transport modeling is a useful tool for decreasing the risk to downgradient sources by aiding in the placement of mine facilities. Although mines are located based on the minerals, advance planning and analysis could avoid siting mine facilities where failure or leaks would cause too much natural resource damage. Watershed scale transport modeling could help locate the facilities or decide in advance that the mine should not be constructed due to the risk to downstream resources.

  17. Modeling snag dynamics in northern Arizona mixed-conifer and ponderosa pine forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joseph L. Ganey; Scott C. Vojta

    2007-01-01

    Snags (standing dead trees) are important components of forested habitats that contribute to ecological decay and recycling processes as well as providing habitat for many life forms. As such, snags are of special interest to land managers, but information on dynamics of snag populations is lacking. We modeled trends in snag populations in mixed-conifer and ponderosa...

  18. Fuel load modeling from mensuration attributes in temperate forests in northern Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maricela Morales-Soto; Marín Pompa-Garcia

    2013-01-01

    The study of fuels is an important factor in defining the vulnerability of ecosystems to forest fires. The aim of this study was to model a dead fuel load based on forest mensuration attributes from forest management inventories. A scatter plot analysis was performed and, from explanatory trends between the variables considered, correlation analysis was carried out...

  19. Fuel treatment effects on modeled landscape level fire behavior in the northern Sierra Nevada

    Science.gov (United States)

    J.J. Moghaddas; B.M. Collins; K. Menning; E.E.Y. Moghaddas; S.L. Stephens

    2010-01-01

    Across the western United States, decades of fire exclusion combined with past management history have contributed to the current condition of extensive areas of high-density, shade-tolerant coniferous stands that are increasingly prone to high-severity fires. Here, we report the modeled effects of constructed defensible fuel profile zones and group selection...

  20. Gravity and Magnetotelluric Modeling of the Santo Domingo Basin, Northern New Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zamudio, K. D.; Keithline, N.; Blum, C.; Cunningham, E.; Fromont, A.; Jorgensen, M.; Lee, R.; McBride, K.; Saez Berrios, P.; Harper, C.; Pellerin, L.; McPhee, D.; Ferguson, J. F.

    2015-12-01

    The Santo Domingo Basin, one of a series of basins within the Rio Grande Rift, is located between Santa Fe and Albuquerque, NM, and has been the focus of research by the Summer of Geophysical Experience (SAGE) program since 2000. Gravity, magnetotelluric (MT), and seismic data have been collected throughout the region, although we are concentrating on gravity and MT data collected during SAGE 2014 and 2015. The study area is located in the center of the Santo Domingo basin, an extensional, Miocene age, rift basin, in an area that was minimally involved in the preceding local Laramide orogenic activity. Rift sediments (~3.5 km thick) are underlain by Eocene age sediments that were shed from adjacent uplifts. Up to 3 km of Mesozoic and Paleozoic sediments are preserved above the Precambrian basement. Geologic outcrop, borehole and seismic reflection data, and known density values were used in the construction of a ~100 km-long, generalized geologic cross section from which a gravity response was calculated. The modeled gravity response makes fairly definitive predictions about the geometry of the basin as well as the stratigraphy and faulting within and bounding the basin. MT data was collected at ten stations within the basin. The MT sounding curves exhibit one-dimensional behavior at short periods (1000 ohm-m) at ~ 3.5-4 km. Conductivities of the major stratigraphic units have been determined from well logs and previous MT modeling. Forward and inverse MT models constrained by the gravity-modeled geologic cross section are used to develop a conductivity model consistent with the geology, and are a step towards a better unified treatment of MT, seismic and gravity data.

  1. Modelling the development of rocky shoreline profiles along the northern coast of Ireland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thébaudeau, Benjamin; Trenhaile, Alan S.; Edwards, Robin J.

    2013-12-01

    A mathematical wave-erosion model is used to simulate postglacial shoreline profiles along the rocky, high energy coast of the north of Ireland. The wave erosion model is driven by a suite of relative sea-level (RSL) curves for the last 16,000 years produced from four glacial rebound models. Multiple runs are performed with different initial shore profiles and rock resistances to investigate shoreline evolution and the significance of inherited morphology on the resultant profile shape. The simulated profiles are then compared with mapped profiles from three areas of the north of Ireland with different lithological and hydrographic properties. Modelled profiles generally replicate the overall mean shoreline gradients observed across the region when rock resistance is relatively high and erosion rates correspondingly low. In these profiles, breaks in mean slope are observed at depths comparable to the RSL minima in several of the RSL scenarios (at c. - 10 m, - 15 m and - 20 m for North Antrim, Derry and Donegal respectively). At Portrush and Portballintrae (Derry), profiles may be influenced by structural controls relating to the underlying basalt surface and the removal of overlying glaciogenic sediments. All RSL scenarios replicate the observed eastward increase in cliff-platform junction height, reflecting the differential glacioisostatic rebound experienced along the coast. However, the precise elevation at which the simulated cliff base occurs is sensitive to the choice of RSL scenario, suggesting that this parameter may prove useful in evaluating glacial rebound model performance. Several of the RSL scenarios generate raised shore platforms or terraces in North Antrim and Derry at heights comparable to raised shoreline features reported in the literature. However, no single curve or combination of parameters is capable of generating the range of platform and terrace features observed in the bathymetric and topographic data. These misfits are consistent with

  2. Predictive modeling of slope deposits and comparisons of two small areas in Northern Germany

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shary, Peter A.; Sharaya, Larisa S.; Mitusov, Andrew V.

    2017-08-01

    Methods for correct quantitative comparison of several terrains are important in the development and use of quantitative landscape evolution models, and they need to introduce specific modeling parameters. We introduce such parameters and compare two small terrains with respect to the link slope-valley for the description of slope deposits (colluvium) in them. We show that colluvium accumulation in small areas cannot be described by linear models and thus introduce non-linear models. Two small areas, Perdoel (0.29 ha) and Bornhöved (3.2 ha), are studied. Slope deposits in the both are mainly in dry valleys, with a total thickness Mtotal up to 2.0 m in Perdoel and up to 1.2 m in Bornhöved. Parent materials are mainly Pleistocene sands aged 30 kyr BP. Exponential models of multiple regression that use a 1-m LiDAR DEM (digital elevation model) explained 70-93% of spatial variability in Mtotal. Parameters DH12 and DV12 of horizontal and vertical distances are introduced that permit to characterize and compare conditions of colluvium formation for various terrains. The study areas differ 3.7 times by the parameter DH12 that describes a horizontal distance from thalwegs at which Mtotal diminishes 2.72 times. DH12 is greater in Bornhöved (29.7 m) than in Perdoel (8.12 m). We relate this difference in DH12 to the distinction between types of the link slope-valley: a regional type if catchment area of a region outside a given small area plays an important role, and a local type when accumulation of colluvium from valley banks within a small area is of more importance. We argue that the link slope-valley is regional in Perdoel and local in Bornhöved. Peaks of colluvium thickness were found on thalwegs of three studied valleys by both direct measurements in a trench, and model surfaces of Mtotal. A hypothesis on the formation mechanism of such peaks is discussed. The parameter DV12 describes a vertical distance from a peak of colluvium thickness along valley bottom at

  3. Structural model of the Northern Latium volcanic area constrained by MT, gravity and aeromagnetic data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Gasparini

    1997-06-01

    Full Text Available The results of about 120 magnetotelluric soundings carried out in the Vulsini, Vico and Sabatini volcanic areas were modeled along with Bouguer and aeromagnetic anomalies to reconstruct a model of the structure of the shallow (less than 5 km of depth crust. The interpretations were constrained by the information gathered from the deep boreholes drilled for geothermal exploration. MT and aeromagnetic anomalies allow the depth to the top of the sedimentary basement and the thickness of the volcanic layer to be inferred. Gravity anomalies are strongly affected by the variations of morphology of the top of the sedimentary basement, consisting of a Tertiary flysch, and of the interface with the underlying Mesozoic carbonates. Gravity data have also been used to extrapolate the thickness of the neogenic unit indicated by some boreholes. There is no evidence for other important density and susceptibility heterogeneities and deeper sources of magnetic and/or gravity anomalies in all the surveyed area.

  4. Northern emporia and maritime networks. Modelling past communication using archaeological network analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sindbæk, Søren Michael

    2015-01-01

    Long-distance communication has emerged as a particular focus for archaeologicalexploration using network theory, analysis, and modelling. The promise is apparentlyobvious: communication in the past doubtlessly had properties of complex, dynamicnetworks, and archaeological datasets almost certainly...... preserve patterns of thisinteraction. Formal network analysis and modelling holds the potential to identify anddemonstrate such patterns, where traditional methods often prove inadequate. Thearchaeological study of communication networks in the past, however, calls for radically different analytical...... this is not a problem of network analysis, but network synthesis: theclassic problem of cracking codes or reconstructing black-box circuits. It is proposedthat archaeological approaches to network synthesis must involve a contextualreading of network data: observations arising from individual contexts, morphologies...

  5. Qualitative mathematical models to support ecosystem-based management of Australia's Northern Prawn Fishery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dambacher, Jeffrey M; Rothlisberg, Peter C; Loneragan, Neil R

    2015-01-01

    A major decline in the catch of the banana prawn [shrimp], Penaeus (Fenneropenaeus) merguiensis, occurred over a six-year period in the Weipa region of the northeastern Gulf of Carpentaria, Australia. Three main hypotheses have been developed to explain this decline: (1) prawn recruitment collapsed due to overfishing; (2) recruitment collapsed due to a change in the prawn's environment; and (3) adult banana prawns were still present, but fishers could no longer effectively find or catch them. Qualitative mathematical models were used to link population biology, environmental factors, and fishery dynamics to evaluate the alternative hypotheses. This modeling approach provides the means to rapidly integrate knowledge across disciplines and consider alternative hypotheses about how the structure and function of an ecosystem affects its dynamics. Alternative models were constructed to address the different hypotheses and also to encompass a diversity of opinion about the underlying dynamics of the system. Key findings from these analyses are that: instability in the system can arise when discarded fishery bycatch supports relatively high predation pressure; system stability can be enhanced by management of fishing effort or stock catchability; catch per unit effort is not necessarily a reliable indicator of stock abundance; a change in early-season rainfall should affect all stages in the banana prawn's life cycle; and a reduced catch in the Weipa region can create and reinforce a shift in fishing effort away from Weipa. Results from the models informed an approach to test the hypotheses (i.e., an experimental fishing program), and promoted understanding of the system among researchers, management agencies, and industry. The analytical tools developed in this work to address stages of a prawn life cycle and fishery dynamics are generally applicable to any exploited natural. resource.

  6. Model estimation of land-use effects on water levels of northern prairie wetlands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voldseth, Richard A; Johnson, W Carter; Gilmanov, Tagir; Guntenspergen, Glenn R; Millett, Bruce V

    2007-03-01

    Wetlands of the Prairie Pothole Region exist in a matrix of grassland dominated by intensive pastoral and cultivation agriculture. Recent conservation management has emphasized the conversion of cultivated farmland and degraded pastures to intact grassland to improve upland nesting habitat. The consequences of changes in land-use cover that alter watershed processes have not been evaluated relative to their effect on the water budgets and vegetation dynamics of associated wetlands. We simulated the effect of upland agricultural practices on the water budget and vegetation of a semipermanent prairie wetland by modifying a previously published mathematical model (WETSIM). Watershed cover/land-use practices were categorized as unmanaged grassland (native grass, smooth brome), managed grassland (moderately heavily grazed, prescribed burned), cultivated crops (row crop, small grain), and alfalfa hayland. Model simulations showed that differing rates of evapotranspiration and runoff associated with different upland plant-cover categories in the surrounding catchment produced differences in wetland water budgets and linked ecological dynamics. Wetland water levels were highest and vegetation the most dynamic under the managed-grassland simulations, while water levels were the lowest and vegetation the least dynamic under the unmanaged-grassland simulations. The modeling results suggest that unmanaged grassland, often planted for waterfowl nesting, may produce the least favorable wetland conditions for birds, especially in drier regions of the Prairie Pothole Region. These results stand as hypotheses that urgently need to be verified with empirical data.

  7. Investigation of Channel Modeling and Simulation of OFDM Based Communication Near Northern Regions of Arabian Sea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rehan Khan

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Wideband nature of oceanic channel when dealing with multicarrier acoustic subcarriers introduces severe Doppler shifts, little variations may cause overlapping of subcarriers such that entire signal can get completely distorted. Therefore, one of the major problems in OFDM based underwater acoustic communication is the sensitive nature of wideband acoustic subcarriers. In this study, Bellhop beam tracing is used to model two regions in the north of Arabian Sea and the two-step receiver algorithm is used over these channel models. Multipath with delay channel model is obtained using the Bellhop ray tracing algorithm while random Doppler shift is induced in MATLAB on each block and also in the complete OFDM packet. In the first step, resembling converts a wideband problem in to narrowband problem and in the second step; high resolution Carrier Offset Frequency (CFO tracking compensates the residual Doppler. Cyclic Prefix (CP OFDM scheme based on block-by-block processing is deliberated here for fast varying channel. In the proposed algorithm, null subcarriers are facilitated for Doppler removal while pilot bits are used for Least Square (LS channel estimation. Simulation on MATLAB is carried out on both channels, i.e., near Gawadar Coast and Karachi Harbor; satisfactory results are achieved in terms Low Bit Error Rates (BER even in high relative speed between transmitter and receiver. These results further suggested and make convinced for the experimental test/ trials, specifically in the region of north Arabian Sea.

  8. Mesoscale Modeling of Smoke Particles Distribution and Their Radiative Feedback over Northern Sub-Saharan African Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yue, Y.; Wang, J.; Ichoku, C. M.; Ellison, L.

    2015-12-01

    Stretching from southern boundary of Sahara to the equator and expanding west to east from Atlantic Ocean coasts to the India Ocean coasts, the northern sub-Saharan African (NSSA) region has been subject to intense biomass burning. Comprised of savanna, shrub, tropical forest and a number of agricultural crops, the extensive fires burn belt covers central and south of NSSA during dry season (from October to March) contributes to one of the highest biomass burning rate per km2 in the world. Due to smoke particles' absorption effects of solar radiation, they can modify the surface and atmosphere temperature and thus change atmospheric stability, height of the boundary layer, regional atmospheric circulation, evaporation rate, cloud formation, and precipitation. Hence, smoke particles emitted from biomass burning over NSSA region has a significant influence to the air quality, weather and climate variability. In this study, the first version of this Fire Energetics and Emissions Research (FEER.v1) emissions of several smoke constituents including light-absorbing organic carbon (OC) and black carbon (BC) are applied to a state-of-science meteorology-chemistry model as NOAA Weather Research and Forecasting Model with Chemistry (WRF-Chem). We analyzed WRF-Chem simulations of surface and vertical distribution of various pollutants and their direct radiative effects in conjunction with satellite observation data from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Cloud-Aerosol Lidar data with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIPSO) to strengthen the importance of combining space measured emission products like FEER.v1 emission inventory with mesoscale model over intense biomass burning region, especially in area where ground-based air-quality and radiation-related observations are limited or absent.

  9. Geophysical constraints on Rio Grande rift structure and stratigraphy from magnetotelluric models and borehole resistivity logs, northern New Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriguez, Brian D.; Sawyer, David A.; Hudson, Mark R.; Grauch, V.J.S.

    2013-01-01

    Two- and three-dimensional electrical resistivity models derived from the magnetotelluric method were interpreted to provide more accurate hydrogeologic parameters for the Albuquerque and Española Basins. Analysis and interpretation of the resistivity models are aided by regional borehole resistivity data. Examination of the magnetotelluric response of hypothetical stratigraphic cases using resistivity characterizations from the borehole data elucidates two scenarios where the magnetotelluric method provides the strongest constraints. In the first scenario, the magnetotelluric method constrains the thickness of extensive volcanic cover, the underlying thickness of coarser-grained facies of buried Santa Fe Group sediments, and the depth to Precambrian basement or overlying Pennsylvanian limestones. In the second scenario, in the absence of volcanic cover, the magnetotelluric method constrains the thickness of coarser-grained facies of buried Santa Fe Group sediments and the depth to Precambrian basement or overlying Pennsylvanian limestones. Magnetotelluric surveys provide additional constraints on the relative positions of basement rocks and the thicknesses of Paleozoic, Mesozoic, and Tertiary sedimentary rocks in the region of the Albuquerque and Española Basins. The northern extent of a basement high beneath the Cerros del Rio volcanic field is delineated. Our results also reveal that the largest offset of the Hubbell Spring fault zone is located 5 km west of the exposed scarp. By correlating our resistivity models with surface geology and the deeper stratigraphic horizons using deep well log data, we are able to identify which of the resistivity variations in the upper 2 km belong to the upper Santa Fe Group sediment

  10. Observations and regional modeling of aerosol optical properties, speciation and size distribution over Northern Africa and western Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Menut, Laurent; Siour, Guillaume; Mailler, Sylvain; Couvidat, Florian; Bessagnet, Bertrand

    2016-10-01

    The aerosol speciation and size distribution is modeled during the summer 2013 and over a large area encompassing Africa, Mediterranean and western Europe. The modeled aerosol is compared to available measurements such as the AERONET aerosol optical depth (AOD) and aerosol size distribution (ASD) and the EMEP network for surface concentrations of particulate matter PM2.5, PM10 and inorganic species (nitrate, sulfate and ammonium). The main goal of this study is to quantify the model ability to realistically model the speciation and size distribution of the aerosol. Results first showed that the long-range transport pathways are well reproduced and mainly constituted by mineral dust: spatial correlation is ≈ 0.9 for AOD and Ångström exponent, when temporal correlations show that the day-to-day variability is more difficult to reproduce. Over Europe, PM2.5 and PM10 have a mean temporal correlation of ≈ 0.4 but the lowest spatial correlation ( ≈ 0.25 and 0.62, respectively), showing that the fine particles are not well localized or transported. Being short-lived species, the uncertainties on meteorology and emissions induce these lowest scores. However, time series of PM2.5 with the speciation show a good agreement between model and measurements and are useful for discriminating the aerosol composition. Using a classification from the south (Africa) to the north (northern Europe), it is shown that mineral dust relative mass contribution decreases from 50 to 10 % when nitrate increases from 0 to 20 % and all other species, sulfate, sea salt, ammonium, elemental carbon, primary organic matter, are constant. The secondary organic aerosol contribution is between 10 and 20 % with a maximum at the latitude of the Mediterranean Sea (Spanish stations). For inorganic species, it is shown that nitrate, sulfate and ammonium have a mean temporal correlation of 0.25, 0.37 and 0.17, respectively. The spatial correlation is better (0.25, 0.5 and 0.87), showing that the mean

  11. Space-time model for migration of weak earthquakes along the northern boundary of the Amurian microplate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trofimenko, S. V.; Bykov, V. G.; Merkulova, T. V.

    2016-07-01

    In this paper, we aimed to investigate the statistical distributions of shallow earthquakes with 2 ≤ M ≤ 4, located in 13 rectangular areas (clusters) bounded by 120°E and 144°E along the northern boundary of the Amurian microplate. As a result of our study, the displacement of seismicity maxima has been determined and three recurrent spatial cycles have been observed. The clusters with similar distribution of earthquakes are suggested to alternate being equally spaced at 7.26° (360-420 km). A comparison of investigation results on the structure of seismicity in various segments of the Amurian microplate reveals the identity between the alternation pattern observed for meridional zones of large earthquakes and a distinguished spatial period. The displacement vector for seismicity in the annual cycles is determined, and the correspondence between its E-W direction and the displacement of the fronts of large earthquakes is established. The elaborated model of seismic and deformation processes is considered, in which subsequent activation of clusters of weak earthquakes (2 ≤ M ≤ 4), tending to extend from the Japanese-Sakhalin island arc to the eastern closure of the Baikal rift zone, is initiated by the displacement of the strain wave front.

  12. Decentralized nursing education in Northern Norway: towards a sustainable recruitment and retention model in rural Arctic healthcare services

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bente Norbye

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Introduction. Decentralized nursing education (DNE was established at Tromsø University College in 1990 and has since become a part of the bachelor programme in nursing at UiT The Arctic University of Norway. The objective of the study was to investigate whether and to what degree the first DNE programme established in Norway has contributed to recruitment and retention of registered nurses (RNs in rural healthcare services. Methods. The quantitative survey took place in 2012. A questionnaire was distributed to 315 former students who had graduated from the DNE programme from 1994 to 2011. Results. The primary finding of this study is that the DNE successfully recruits students from rural areas of Northern Norway. Nearly, 87.5% have their first employment in community healthcare services. They continued to work in the rural areas and 85% still worked as nurses in 2012. The DNE programme has been successful regarding recruitment and retention of RNs to community healthcare services. Fifty-six percent have attended a variety of postgraduate programmes. Conclusion. The DNE programme demonstrates itself as a successful study model regarding recruitment and retention of RNs to rural and remote areas.

  13. Modelling strategies for the management of the critically endangered Carpentarian rock-rat (Zyzomys palatalis) of northern Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brook, Barry W; Griffiths, Anthony D; Puckey, Helen L

    2002-08-01

    The Carpentarian rock-rat (Zyzomys palatalis) is a critically endangered endemic rodent known from only four sandstone gorges in the southeast Gulf of Carpentaria, Northern Territory, Australia. These gorges harbour thickets of monsoon rainforest and broadleaf woodland, surrounded by a Eucalypt savanna matrix. The long-term persistence of Z. palatalis is threatened by altered fire regimes, grazing by feral animals and stock, weed intrusion, and the stochastic hazards associated with small, fragmented populations. To assess the relative importance of these threats and develop practical management options, a population and habitat simulation model was developed, based on the best existing data. Population viability was predicted to be highly sensitive to the frequency of hot, late dry-season fires. Progressive habitat degradation (due predominantly to intense late dry-season fires) is likely to substantially reduce population size and lead to the probable extinction of the species within the next 100 years. The most effective management strategy to counteract this threat would be regular, controlled, fuel reduction burns in the vegetation around the gorge entrances during the early dry season. Establishing a new population (through translocation of captive-bred individuals) would not appreciably reduce extinction risk, but could provide valuable additional data on the impact of threats, if conducted as an adaptive management experiment.

  14. Anomalous surface heave induced by enhanced oil recovery in northern Alberta: InSAR observations and numerical modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pearse, Jill; Singhroy, Vern; Samsonov, Sergey; Li, Junhua

    2014-08-01

    Recent interferometric synthetic aperture radar observations over northern Alberta, Canada, show persistent surface heave occurring at rates of 1-4 cm/yr, localized at sites where the steam-assisted gravity drainage technique is currently used to extract bitumen from the Athabasca oil sands. We find that uplift rates above the horizontal injector wells are strongly correlated with rates of steam injection, even though there is a net fluid loss from the reservoir pore space as oil and water are withdrawn through the production wells. In combination with available steam injection and bitumen production data at four sites, we use reservoir flow models to explain how the thermal and geomechanical effects of steam injection on an oil sand reservoir can generate uplift at the surface. Results of our numerical experiments show that persistent surface heave consistent with observed rates can be driven by stress changes in the reservoir due to porous flow and thermal expansion. We also observe an unexpected localized uplift, of magnitude equal to or greater than the heave above the sites of steaming but located at clusters of wellheads which are outside the region of influence of the steam chambers. We show that this "wellhead" deformation can be explained by thermal expansion of rock near the injector wells.

  15. Distributed modelling of climate change impacts on snow sublimation in Northern Mongolia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Menzel

    2009-08-01

    Full Text Available Sublimation of snow is an important factor of the hydrological cycle in Mongolia and is likely to increase according to future climate projections. In this study the hydrological model TRAIN was used to assess spatially distributed current and future sublimation rates based on interpolated daily data of precipitation, air temperature, air humidity, wind speed and solar radiation. An automated procedure for the interpolation of the input data is provided. Depending on the meteorological parameter and the data availability for the individual days, the most appropriate interpolation method is chosen automatically from inverse distance weighting, Ordinary Least Squares interpolation, Ordinary or Universal Kriging. Depending on elevation simulated annual sublimation in the period 1986–2006 was 23 to 35 mm, i.e. approximately 80% of total snowfall. Moreover, future climate projections for 2071–2100 of ECHAM5 and HadCM3, based on the A1B emission scenario of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, were analysed with TRAIN. In the case of ECHAM5 simulated sublimation increases by up to 17% (26...41 mm while it remains at the same level for HadCM3 (24...34 mm. The differences are mainly due to a distinct increase in winter precipitation for ECHAM5. Simulated changes of the all-season hydrological conditions, e.g. the sublimation-to-precipitation ratio, were ambiguous due to diverse precipitation patterns derived by the global circulation models.

  16. Stochastic landslide vulnerability modeling in space and time in a part of the northern Himalayas, India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Das, Iswar; Kumar, Gaurav; Stein, Alfred; Bagchi, Arunabha; Dadhwal, Vinay K

    2011-07-01

    Little is known about the quantitative vulnerability analysis to landslides as not many attempts have been made to assess it comprehensively. This study assesses the spatio-temporal vulnerability of elements at risk to landslides in a stochastic framework. The study includes buildings, persons inside buildings, and traffic as elements at risk to landslides. Building vulnerability is the expected damage and depends on the position of a building with respect to the landslide hazard at a given time. Population and vehicle vulnerability are the expected death toll in a building and vehicle damage in space and time respectively. The study was carried out in a road corridor in the Indian Himalayas that is highly susceptible to landslides. Results showed that 26% of the buildings fall in the high and very high vulnerability categories. Population vulnerability inside buildings showed a value >0.75 during 0800 to 1000 hours and 1600 to 1800 hours in more buildings that other times of the day. It was also observed in the study region that the vulnerability of vehicle is above 0.6 in half of the road stretches during 0800 hours to 1000 hours and 1600 to 1800 hours due to high traffic density on the road section. From this study, we conclude that the vulnerability of an element at risk to landslide is a space and time event, and can be quantified using stochastic modeling. Therefore, the stochastic vulnerability modeling forms the basis for a quantitative landslide risk analysis and assessment.

  17. Evaluation of evapotranspiration methods for model validation in a semi-arid watershed in northern China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Schneider

    2007-05-01

    Full Text Available This study evaluates the performance of four evapotranspiration methods (Priestley-Taylor, Penman-Monteith, Hargreaves and Makkink of differing complexity in a semi-arid environment in north China. The results are compared to observed water vapour fluxes derived from eddy flux measurements. The analysis became necessary after discharge simulations using an automatically calibrated version of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT failed to reproduce runoff measurements. Although the study area receives most of the annual rainfall during the vegetation period, high temperatures can cause water scarcity. We investigate which evapotranspiration method is most suitable for this environment and whether the model performance of SWAT can be improved with the most adequate evapotranspiration method.

    The evapotranspiration models were tested in two consecutive years with different rainfall amounts. In general, the simple Hargreaves and Makkink equations outmatch the more complex Priestley-Taylor and Penman-Monteith methods, although their performance depended on water availability. Effects on the quality of SWAT runoff simulations, however, remained minor. Although evapotranspiration is an important process in the hydrology of this steppe environment, our analysis indicates that other driving factors still need to be identified to improve SWAT simulations.

  18. Reconstruction of the 500-year ground surface temperature history of northern Awaji Island, southwest Japan, using a layered thermal property model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goto, Shusaku; Yamano, Makoto

    2010-12-01

    Changes in the ground surface temperature (GST), propagating underground, can be recorded as thermal perturbations to the background thermal field. This paper presents a forward model of conductive propagation of GST in a layered material model with uniform thermal properties in each layer and a series of step functions as GST history. This model, which is expressed using the same mathematical form of that for a uniform thermal property model with a series of step functions as GST history, calculates subsurface temperature perturbations that originate from the GST change by superimposing numerically solved solutions of the model with surface boundary condition of a unit function. Using this model, we reconstruct the recent 500-year GST history from borehole temperature data in northern Awaji Island, southwest Japan, by Bayesian inversion. The reconstructed GST history shows the onset of warming in the mid-18th century to the early 19th century and an increase of 1.1-1.3 K up to the mid-20th century. From the middle to late 20th century, the GST decreased by about 0.2 K. The GST change in the 20th century fits the trend of mean annual surface air temperature records in Kobe, opposite the coast of northern Awaji Island. The GST history in northern Awaji Island differs from that in Ulsan, in the southeastern Republic of Korea, which is located at the same latitude as northern Awaji Island. Differences of the GST histories of these regions most likely reflect differences in sea surface temperatures in these regions.

  19. Exploring Northern Hemisphere Ice Sheet Variability in the Pliocene using Ice Rafted Debris Records and Iceberg Trajectory Modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Y.; Haywood, A. M.; Hill, D. J.; Dolan, A. M.; Dowsett, H. J.; Robinson, M. M.

    2015-12-01

    The Greenland Ice Sheet (GRIS) contains approximately 7.36m of sea level equivalent that could melt over the next 1000 years. Therefore understanding the response of the GRIS during past warm periods is fundamentally important. The Late Pliocene (LP) has similarities to the projected 21st Century climate, and there is enough available data to constrain ice sheet and iceberg modelling studies, thus it make the LP a useful palaeoclimate modelling target. Within the LP, the mid Piacenzian Warm Period (mPWP) is particularly well documented. The USGS PRISM (Pliocene Research, Interpretation & Synoptic Mapping) project focuses on the mPWP (3.26 -3.025Ma) and was chosen for the similarities to modern in paleogeography, CO2 levels and because fossil assemblages of LP foraminifera are largely composed of extant species. Data sets of PRISM are used as boundary conditions in climate models which simulate ice sheet and iceberg scenarios in warm conditions of the mid/high latitudes. In the mPWP, temperatures were 2-3°C warmer than present and CO2 level was about 405ppmv. Multi-climate and multi-ice sheet modelling studies show retreat in the GRIS to higher elevation. However, immediately prior to the mPWP, Marine Isotope Stage M2 (3.3Ma) is a cold period in the warmer LP background. Localized evidence of ice during the M2 exists but if a larger northern hemisphere (NH) glaciation occurred, evidence has been erased. Evidence shows a drop in sea level up to 60m and CO2 at 220ppmv. Climate models show a medium/large NH ice cover is plausible at the M2. The exact extent during both warm and cold periods in the LP remains unclear. Evidence of this extent can be seen in marine sediment cores as ice rafted debris (IRD) which helps decipher the state of the ice sheet. The distribution of mPWP North Atlantic IRD in space and time tells us about the location of iceberg-producing glaciers of the NH. Using the M2 and mPWP climate scenarios, we have modelled iceberg trajectories to see

  20. Sources of spatial variation in methane emission from mires in northern Sweden: A mechanistic approach in statistical modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Granberg, Gunnar; Mikkelä, Catharina; Sundh, Ingvar; Svensson, Bo H.; Nilsson, Mats

    1997-06-01

    Methane emissions from six mires in northern Sweden were measured using a closed chamber technique during the frost free season in 1992. The average methane flux over the measurement period, calculated either for each mire or for different plant communities within one mire, ranged from 9 to 83 mg CH4 m-2 d-1. The emission rate on each occasion was related to physical and chemical environmental variables, both in a general data set for all mires (n = 836) and in subdata sets for individual mires, using multiple linear regression. The variables with significant contributions to the models were water table, standing water above the vegetation surface, peat temperatures, and principal components of the near infrared reflectance spectra of peat samples reflecting variations in organic chemical composition. To account for the actual contribution of methane production and methane oxidation, variables describing the active parts of the vertically distributed potentials of methane production or oxidation were constructed. The interaction terms between these variables, respectively, describing the active proportion of methanogens and methanotrophs, and the temperature values representing the anoxic and oxic parts of the profile were significantly correlated to the methane emission rate; positively for the production zone and negatively for the consumption zone. By using this mechanistic approach, a significant temperature effect in both the methane production and consumption zone was detected. These constructed temperature variables explain 21% of the variance in the logarithmically transformed methane fluxes using the entire data set (n = 836) but only 5% of the variance using peat temperatures from fixed depths. Adding variables describing the organic chemical composition of the peat to the models improved the predictability in 10 of the 11 model sets tested, decreasing the unexplained variance by maximally 50% for a poor fen community model and increasing R2 from 0.40 to

  1. Family history of the cancer on the survival of the patients with gastrointestinal cancer in northern Iran, using frailty models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rasouli Mahboobeh

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Gastrointestinal (GI tract cancer is one of the common causes of the mortality due to cancer in most developing countries such as Iran. The digestive tract is the major organ involved in the cancer. The northern part of the country, surrounded the Caspian Sea coast, is well known and the region with highest regional incidence of the GI tract cancer. In this paper our aim is to study the most common risk factors affecting the survival of the patients suffering from GI tract cancer using parametric models with frailty. Methods This research was a prospective study. Information of 484 cases with GI cancer was collected from Babol Cancer Registration Center during 1990-1991. The risk factors we studied are age, sex, family history of cancer, marital status, smoking status, occupation, race, medication status, education, residence (urban, rural, type of cancer, migration status (indigenous, non-native. The studied cases were followed up until 2006 for 15 years. Hazard ratio was used to interpret the death risk. The effect of the factors in the study on the patients survival are studied under a family of parametric models including Weibull, Exponential, Log-normal, and the Log-logistic model. The models are fitted using with and without frailty. The Akaike information criterion (AIC was considered to compare between competing models. Results Out of 484 patients in the study, 321 (66.3% were males and 163 (33.7% were females. The average age of the patient at the time of the diagnosis was 59 yr and 55 yr for the males and females respectively. Furthermore, 359 (74.2% patients suffered from esophageal, 110 (22.7% patients recognized with gastric, and 15 (3.1% patients with colon cancer. Survival rates after 1, 3, and 5 years of the diagnosis were 24%, 16%, and 15%, respectively. We found that the family history of the cancer is a significant factor on the death risk under all statistical models in the study. The comparison of AIC

  2. Comprehensive observation and modeling of earthquake and temperature-related seismic velocity changes in northern Chile with passive image interferometry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richter, Tom; Sens-Schönfelder, Christoph; Kind, Rainer; Asch, Günter

    2014-06-01

    We report on earthquake and temperature-related velocity changes in high-frequency autocorrelations of ambient noise data from seismic stations of the Integrated Plate Boundary Observatory Chile project in northern Chile. Daily autocorrelation functions are analyzed over a period of 5 years with passive image interferometry. A short-term velocity drop recovering after several days to weeks is observed for the Mw 7.7 Tocopilla earthquake at most stations. At the two stations PB05 and PATCX, we observe a long-term velocity decrease recovering over the course of around 2 years. While station PB05 is located in the rupture area of the Tocopilla earthquake, this is not the case for station PATCX. Station PATCX is situated in an area influenced by salt sediment in the vicinity of Salar Grande and presents a superior sensitivity to ground acceleration and periodic surface-induced changes. Due to this high sensitivity, we observe a velocity response of several regional earthquakes at PATCX, and we can show for the first time a linear relationship between the amplitude of velocity drops and peak ground acceleration for data from a single station. This relationship does not hold true when comparing different stations due to the different sensitivity of the station environments. Furthermore, we observe periodic annual velocity changes at PATCX. Analyzing data at a temporal resolution below 1 day, we are able to identify changes with a period of 24 h, too. The characteristics of the seismic velocity with annual and daily periods indicate an atmospheric origin of the velocity changes that we confirm with a model based on thermally induced stress. This comprehensive model explains the lag time dependence of the temperature-related seismic velocity changes involving the distribution of temperature fluctuations, the relationship between temperature, stress and velocity change, plus autocorrelation sensitivity kernels.

  3. Snowpack and snowmelt modeling of a subarctic catchment in northern Quebec, Canada, using an energy and mass balance approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oreiller, M.; Rousseau, A. N.; Minville, M.

    2012-12-01

    There is a growing interest in modeling snowpack evolution and spring runoff in northern Quebec, Canada, where there are several large-scale hydropower complexes. This region (49th to 55th degree north), characterized by boreal forest, lakes and wetlands, is highly remote and snowpack observations are very sparse. The objective of this study is to improve the snow module of HYDROTEL, a distributed continuous hydrological model currently used to predict inflows to large hydropower reservoirs of the region, with the help of continuous in-situ measurements of snow water equivalent. Up to now HYDROTEL has relied on a mixed degree-day/energy balance method to simulate accumulation and depletion of the snow cover. This approach has the advantage of requiring a small number of input data, but under changing climate conditions such as those recently experienced unusually high temperature in late winter or rain-on-snow events it has a tendency to generate unreliable results. We thus implemented a completely physically-based snow module, CROCUS, and try to determine whether HYDROTEL could benefit from an energy and mass balance approach. CROCUS, originally developed for snowpack simulations in the French Alps, has been adapted to the specific environmental characteristics of the boreal region. The simulation can now be validated with snow water equivalent collected by a GMON sensor, which evaluates absorption of the natural ground gamma radiation by the snowpack. The number of input data required by CROCUS is more important (seven meteorological variables on an hourly basis instead of two on a daily basis for the current version of HYDROTEL's snow module) which makes it more complex to use and at this points too complex to be implemented directly as a subroutine in HYDROTEL. However, this study shows that HYDROTEL is much more effective at predicting winter and spring runoff when using CROCUS as the snow module.

  4. Emplacement model of obsidian-rhyolite magma deduced from complete internal section of the Akaishiyama lava, Shirataki, northern Hokkaido, Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wada, K.; Sano, K.

    2016-12-01

    Simultaneously explosive and effusive eruptions of silicic magmas has shed light on the vesiculation and outgassing history of ascending magmas in the conduit and emplacement model of obsidian-rhyolite lavas (Castro et al., 2014; Shipper et al, 2013). As well as the knowledge of newly erupted products such as 2008-2009 Chaitén and 2011-2012 Cordón Caule eruptions, field and micro-textural evidences of well-exposed internal structure of obsidian-rhyolite lava leads to reveal eruption processes of silicic magmas. The Shirataki monogenetic volcano field, 2.2 million year age, northern Hokkaido, Japan, contains many outcrops of obsidian and vesiculated rhyolite zones (SiO2=76.7-77.4 wt.%). Among their outcrops, Akaishiyama lava shows good exposures of internal sections from the top to the bottom along the Kyukasawa valley with thickness of about 190 meters, showing the symmetrical structure comprising a upper clastic zone (UCZ; 5m thick), an upper dense obsidian zone (UDO; 15m), an upper banded obsidian zone (UBO; 70-80m), a central rhyolite zone (CR; 65m), a lower banded obsidian zone (LBO; 15m), a lower dense obsidian zone (LDO; 20m), and a lower clastic zone (LCZ; 3m). The upper banded obsidian zone is characterized by existence of spherulite concentration layers with tuffisite veins and rhyolite enclaves. Spherulites consisting of albite, cristobalaite and obsidian glass, are clustered in the dense obsidian. Tuffisite veins show brecciated obsidians in tuffaceous matrix, showing an outgassing path during the emplacement of obsidian lava. Perpendicular dip of spherulite parallel rows indicates the banded zone itself was the domain of vent area. From the observation of these occurrences in the internal section and rock texture, we show the qualitative formation model of Shirataki obsidian-rhyolite lava.

  5. Modeling Soil Carbon Dynamics in Northern Forests: Effects of Spatial and Temporal Aggregation of Climatic Input Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dalsgaard, Lise; Astrup, Rasmus; Antón-Fernández, Clara; Borgen, Signe Kynding; Breidenbach, Johannes; Lange, Holger; Lehtonen, Aleksi; Liski, Jari

    2016-01-01

    Boreal forests contain 30% of the global forest carbon with the majority residing in soils. While challenging to quantify, soil carbon changes comprise a significant, and potentially increasing, part of the terrestrial carbon cycle. Thus, their estimation is important when designing forest-based climate change mitigation strategies and soil carbon change estimates are required for the reporting of greenhouse gas emissions. Organic matter decomposition varies with climate in complex nonlinear ways, rendering data aggregation nontrivial. Here, we explored the effects of temporal and spatial aggregation of climatic and litter input data on regional estimates of soil organic carbon stocks and changes for upland forests. We used the soil carbon and decomposition model Yasso07 with input from the Norwegian National Forest Inventory (11275 plots, 1960-2012). Estimates were produced at three spatial and three temporal scales. Results showed that a national level average soil carbon stock estimate varied by 10% depending on the applied spatial and temporal scale of aggregation. Higher stocks were found when applying plot-level input compared to country-level input and when long-term climate was used as compared to annual or 5-year mean values. A national level estimate for soil carbon change was similar across spatial scales, but was considerably (60-70%) lower when applying annual or 5-year mean climate compared to long-term mean climate reflecting the recent climatic changes in Norway. This was particularly evident for the forest-dominated districts in the southeastern and central parts of Norway and in the far north. We concluded that the sensitivity of model estimates to spatial aggregation will depend on the region of interest. Further, that using long-term climate averages during periods with strong climatic trends results in large differences in soil carbon estimates. The largest differences in this study were observed in central and northern regions with strongly

  6. Oil geochemistry of the northern Llanos Basin, Colombia. A model for migration

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ramon, J.C. (Colorado School of Mines, Golden, CO (United States)); Dzou, L. (Baseline Resolution, Dallas, TX (United States))

    1996-01-01

    The chemical composition of 23 crude oils and one oil seep from Llanos Basin, Colombia were studied in detail by geochemical methods in order to understand their genetic relationship. A filling history model is proposed to explain the observed composition variations in Llanos Basin oils. Geochemical fingerprinting indicates that there are six families of crude oils. The biomarker compositions have been used to identify characteristics of the source rocks. The Llanos oils contain marine algal- derived [open quotes]C30 steranes[close quotes] (i.e., 24-n-propylcholestanes), which are diagnostic for oils generated from marine Cretaceous source rocks. A significant HC-contribution from a Tertiary source is also indicated by the presence of high concentration of the [open quotes]flowering plant[close quotes]-markers oleanane, bicadinanes and oleanoids. Low DBT/Phen, %sulfur values and high diasteranes concentration indicate that the source rock is clay-rich. Biomarker maturity parameters indicate a wide range of source-rock thermal maturities from early to late oil window. Heavy biodegradation has been particularly common among the first oils to fill reservoirs in central Llanos oil fields. The older altered heavy oils were mixed with a second pulse of oil explaining the wide range of oil gravities measured in the central Llanos Basin.

  7. Oil geochemistry of the northern Llanos Basin, Colombia. A model for migration

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ramon, J.C. [Colorado School of Mines, Golden, CO (United States); Dzou, L. [Baseline Resolution, Dallas, TX (United States)

    1996-12-31

    The chemical composition of 23 crude oils and one oil seep from Llanos Basin, Colombia were studied in detail by geochemical methods in order to understand their genetic relationship. A filling history model is proposed to explain the observed composition variations in Llanos Basin oils. Geochemical fingerprinting indicates that there are six families of crude oils. The biomarker compositions have been used to identify characteristics of the source rocks. The Llanos oils contain marine algal- derived {open_quotes}C30 steranes{close_quotes} (i.e., 24-n-propylcholestanes), which are diagnostic for oils generated from marine Cretaceous source rocks. A significant HC-contribution from a Tertiary source is also indicated by the presence of high concentration of the {open_quotes}flowering plant{close_quotes}-markers oleanane, bicadinanes and oleanoids. Low DBT/Phen, %sulfur values and high diasteranes concentration indicate that the source rock is clay-rich. Biomarker maturity parameters indicate a wide range of source-rock thermal maturities from early to late oil window. Heavy biodegradation has been particularly common among the first oils to fill reservoirs in central Llanos oil fields. The older altered heavy oils were mixed with a second pulse of oil explaining the wide range of oil gravities measured in the central Llanos Basin.

  8. Simulating wind energy resources with mesoscale models: Intercomparison of state-of-the-art models over Northern Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hahmann, A. N.

    2015-12-01

    Mesoscale models are increasingly being used to estimate wind conditions to identify perspective areas and sites where to develop wind farm projects. Mesoscale models are useful because they give information over extensive areas with various terrain complexities where measurements are scarce and measurement campaigns costly. Various mesoscale models and families of mesoscale models are being used, with thousands of setup options. Since long-term integrations are expensive and tedious to carry out, only limited comparisons exist. We have carried out a blind benchmarking study to evaluate the capabilities of mesoscale models used in wind energy to estimate site wind conditions: to highlight common issues on mesoscale modeling of wind conditions on sites with different characteristics, and to identify gaps and strengths of models and understand the root conditions for further evaluating uncertainties. Three experimental sites with tall mast measurements were selected: FINO3 (offshore), Høvsøre (coastal), and Cabauw (land-based). The participants were asked to provide hourly time series of wind speed and direction, temperature, etc., at various heights for 2011. The methods used were left to the choice of the participants, but they were asked for a detailed description of their model and many other parameters (e.g., horizontal and vertical resolution, model parameterizations, surface roughness length) that could be used to group the models and interpret the results of the intercomparison. The analysis of the time series includes comparison to observations, summarized with well-known measures such as biases, RMSE, correlations, and of sector-wise statistics, and the temporal spectra. The statistics were grouped by the models, their spatial resolution, forcing data, various integration methods, etc. The results show high fidelity of the various entries in simulating the wind climate at the offshore and coastal site. Over land and the statistics of other derived fields

  9. Tall Tower Wind Energy Monitoring and Numerical Model Validation in Northern Nevada

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Koracin, D. [Desert Research Inst. (DRI), Las Vegas, NV (United States); Kaplan, M. [Desert Research Inst. (DRI), Las Vegas, NV (United States); Smith, C. [Desert Research Inst. (DRI), Las Vegas, NV (United States); McCurdy, G. [Desert Research Inst. (DRI), Las Vegas, NV (United States); Wolf, A. [Desert Research Inst. (DRI), Las Vegas, NV (United States); McCord, T. [Desert Research Inst. (DRI), Las Vegas, NV (United States); King, K. [Desert Research Inst. (DRI), Las Vegas, NV (United States); Belu, R. [Drexel Univ., Philadelphia, PA (United States); Horvath, K. [Croatian Meteorological and Hydrological Service, Zagreb (Croatia)

    2015-10-01

    The main objectives of this project were to conduct a tall-tower and sodar field campaign in complex terrain, investigate wind properties relevant to wind energy assessment, and evaluate high-resolution models with fixed and adaptive grid structures. Two 60-m towers at Virginia Peak ridges near Washoe Valley, Nevada, were instrumented with cup and vane anemometers as well as sonic anemometers, and an acoustic sounder (hereafter sodar) was installed near one of the towers. The towers were located 2,700 m apart with a vertical distance of 140 m elevation between their bases. Each tower had a downhill exposure of rolling complex terrain, with the nearby valley floor 3,200 m to the west and 800 m below the summit. Cup anemometers were installed at both towers at 20, 40, and 60 m, wind vanes at 20 and 60 m, and sonic anemometers at 20 and 60 m. The sodar measurements were nominally provided every 10 m in vertical distance from 40 to 200 m with the quality of the data generally decreasing with height. Surface air temperature, atmospheric pressure, and radiation measurements were conducted at 1.5 m AGL at both of the towers. Although the plan was to conduct a 1-year period of data collection, we extended the period (October 5, 2012 through February 24, 2014) to cover for possible data loss from instrument or communication problems. We also present a preliminary analysis of the towers and sodar data, including a detailed inventory of available and missing data as well as outliers. The analysis additionally includes calculation of the Weibull parameters, turbulence intensity, and initial computation of wind power density at various heights.

  10. Modeling downward particulate organic nitrogen flux from zooplankton ammonium regeneration in the northern Benguela

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernández-Urruzola, I.; Osma, N.; Gómez, M.; Pollehne, F.; Postel, L.; Packard, T. T.

    2016-12-01

    The vertical fluxes of particulate organic matter play a crucial role in the distribution of nutrients throughout the oceans. Although they have been the focus of intensive research, little effort has been made to explore alternative approaches that quantify the particle export at a high spatial resolution. In this study, we assess the minimum nitrogen flux (FN) required to sustain the heterotrophic metabolism in the water column from ocean depth profiles of zooplankton NH4+ excretion (RNH4+). The reduction of RNH4+ as a function of depth was described by a power law fit, RNH4+ = (RNH4+)m (z /zm)b , whereby the b-value determines the net particulate nitrogen loss with increasing depth. Integrating these excretory functions from the base of the euphotic zone to the ocean bottom, we calculated FN at two stations located over the Namibian outer shelf. Estimates of FN (ranging between 0.52 and 1.14 mmol N m-2 d-1) were compared with the sinking fluxes of particles collected in sediment traps (0.15-1.01 mmol N m-2 d-1) 50 m over the seafloor. We found a reasonable agreement between the two approaches when fast-sinking particles dominated the ecosystem, but the FN was somewhat at odds with the measured gravitational flux during a low-sedimentation regime. Applying our conceptual model to the mesozooplankton RNH4+ we further constructed a section of FN along a cross-shelf transect at 20° S, and estimated the efficiency of the epipelagic ecosystem to retain nutrients. Finally, we address the impact of the active flux driven by the migrant mesozooplankton to the total nitrogen export. Depending on the sedimentation regime, the downward active flux (0.86 mmol N m-2 d-1 at 150 m) accounted for between 50 and 307% of the gravitational flux.

  11. Pan-Arctic TV Series on Inuit wellness: a northern model of communication for social change?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Rhonda; Morales, Robin; Leavitt, Doreen; Carry, Catherine; Kinnon, Dianne; Rideout, Denise; Clarida, Kath

    2011-06-01

    This paper provides highlights of a utilization-focused evaluation of a collaborative Pan-Arctic Inuit Wellness TV Series that was broadcast live in Alaska and Canada in May 2009. This International Polar Year (IPY) communication and outreach project intended to (1) share information on International Polar Year research progress, disseminate findings and explore questions with Inuit in Alaska, Canada and Greenland; (2) provide a forum for Inuit in Alaska, Canada and Greenland to showcase innovative health and wellness projects; (3) ensure Inuit youth and adult engagement throughout; and (4) document and reflect on the overall experience for the purposes of developing and "testing" a participatory communication model. Utilization-focused formative evaluation of the project, with a focus on overall objectives, key messages and lessons learned to facilitate program improvement. Participant observation, surveys, key informant interviews, document review and website tracking. Promising community programs related to 3 themes - men's wellness, maternity care and youth resilience - in diverse circumpolar regions were highlighted, as were current and stillevolving findings from ongoing Arctic research. Multiple media methods were used to effectively deliver and receive key messages determined by both community and academic experts. Local capacity and new regional networks were strengthened. Evidence-based resources for health education and community action were archived in digital formats (websites and DVDs), increasing accessibility to otherwise isolated individuals and remote communities. The Pan-Arctic Inuit Wellness TV Series was an innovative, multi-dimensional communication project that raised both interest and awareness about complex health conditions in the North and stimulated community dialogue and potential for increased collaborative action. Consistent with a communication for social change approach, the project created new networks, increased motivation to act

  12. Rainfall model investigation and scenario analyses of the effect of government reforestation policy on seasonal rainfalls: A case study from Northern Thailand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duangdai, Eakkapong; Likasiri, Chulin

    2017-03-01

    In this work, 4 models for predicting rainfall amounts are investigated and compared using Northern Thailand's seasonal rainfall data for 1973-2008. Two models, global temperature, forest area and seasonal rainfall (TFR) and modified TFR based on a system of differential equations, give the relationships between global temperature, Northern Thailand's forest cover and seasonal rainfalls in the region. The other two models studied are time series and Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) models. All models are validated using the k-fold cross validation method with the resulting errors being 0.971233, 0.740891, 2.376415 and 2.430891 for time series, ARMA, TFR and modified TFR models, respectively. Under Business as Usual (BaU) scenario, seasonal rainfalls in Northern Thailand are projected through the year 2020 using all 4 models. TFR and modified TFR models are also used to further analyze how global temperature rise and government reforestation policy affect seasonal rainfalls in the region. Rainfall projections obtained via the two models are also compared with those from the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) under IS92a scenario. Results obtained through a mathematical model for global temperature, forest area and seasonal rainfall show that the higher the forest cover, the less fluctuation there is between rainy-season and summer rainfalls. Moreover, growth in forest cover also correlates with an increase in summer rainfalls. An investigation into the relationship between main crop productions and rainfalls in dry and rainy seasons indicates that if the rainy-season rainfall is high, that year's main-crop rice production will decrease but the second-crop rice, maize, sugarcane and soybean productions will increase in the following year.

  13. KEY ELEMENTS OF A SIMULATION MODEL OF HYDROLOGICAL FACTORSOF THE NORTHERN CASPIAN AS ENVIRONMENT HABITAT OF THE СTENOPHORA POPULATION MNEMIOPSIS LEIDY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. M. Kamakin

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Analysis of environmental situation in the Caspian and other basins (the Azov and Black Sea ones showed that the development of an adequate simulation model of hydrological factors in the Northern Caspian as Mnemiopsis leidyi habitat was impossible without an up-to-date special data base. The main environmental factors that predetermine the annual invasion of the Northern Caspian byMnemiopsis leidyi subpopulation and its development are considered. At the present stage of monitoring investigations in the Caspian basin it is impossible to develop successful forecasts and a package of correct measures to reduce the negative impact of such an undesirable invader as Mnemiopsis leidyi on the Azov-Black Sea and Caspian basins without such a simulation model.

  14. Eutrophication-induced acidification of coastal waters in the northern Gulf of Mexico: Insights into origin and processes from a coupled physical-biogeochemical model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laurent, Arnaud; Fennel, Katja; Cai, Wei-Jun; Huang, Wei-Jen; Barbero, Leticia; Wanninkhof, Rik

    2017-01-01

    Nutrient inputs from the Mississippi/Atchafalaya River system into the northern Gulf of Mexico promote high phytoplankton production and lead to high respiration rates. Respiration coupled with water column stratification results in seasonal summer hypoxia in bottom waters on the shelf. In addition to consuming oxygen, respiration produces carbon dioxide (CO2), thus lowering the pH and acidifying bottom waters. Here we present a high-resolution biogeochemical model simulating this eutrophication-driven acidification and investigate the dominant underlying processes. The model shows the recurring development of an extended area of acidified bottom waters in summer on the northern Gulf of Mexico shelf that coincides with hypoxic waters. Not reported before, acidified waters are confined to a thin bottom boundary layer where the production of CO2 by benthic metabolic processes is dominant. Despite a reduced saturation state, acidified waters remain supersaturated with respect to aragonite.

  15. The Spectral Ocean Wave Model (SOWM), a Northern Hemisphere Computer Model for Specifying and Forecasting Ocean Wave Spectra

    Science.gov (United States)

    1982-07-01

    and incorporates them into the interpretation of the accuracy of the model specifications. In addition, rapid spatial and temporal variations of...rapid spatial and temporal variations of actual waves that are not reproduced by the model are documented; and possible errors in the specification of...wave clima - tology without incurring prohibitive costs. "The indexing algorithm, which is the heart of the retrival system, uses sub- projection

  16. Documentation of a groundwater flow model developed to assess groundwater availability in the Northern Atlantic Coastal Plain aquifer system from Long Island, New York, to North Carolina

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masterson, John P.; Pope, Jason P.; Fienen, Michael N.; Monti, Jr., Jack; Nardi, Mark R.; Finkelstein, Jason S.

    2016-08-31

    The U.S. Geological Survey developed a groundwater flow model for the Northern Atlantic Coastal Plain aquifer system from Long Island, New York, to northeastern North Carolina as part of a detailed assessment of the groundwater availability of the area and included an evaluation of how these resources have changed over time from stresses related to human uses and climate trends. The assessment was necessary because of the substantial dependency on groundwater for agricultural, industrial, and municipal needs in this area.

  17. The post-opium scenario and rubber in northern Laos: Alternative Western and Chinese models of development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohen, Paul T

    2009-09-01

    In the past few years rubber planting has spread rapidly throughout northern Laos, especially in Luang Namtha province that borders China. The impetus for this boom has come partly from the spiralling demand for rubber in China (now the world's largest rubber consumer), the high world prices for rubber, and China's promotion of overseas investment through its opium-replacement policy. These economic factors have converged with the desperate need of impoverished highlanders in northern Laos to replace opium as a cash crop as a consequence of a recent opium-eradication campaign and inadequate alternative development. This paper draws upon ethnographic and agro-economic research in northern Laos and neighbouring regions and reports of international development organisations operating in Laos. The rubber boom in northern Laos represents a fundamental clash between Western drug-oriented alternative development, on the one hand, and China's national economic strategies abroad and investment-led narcotics policy, on the other. China's opium-replacement policy has contributed to a type of unregulated frontier capitalism with socio-economic and environmental effects that threaten the principles and goals of alternative development and even to marginalise the role international development organisations in northern Laos.

  18. Vorticity Budget Study on the Seasonal Upper Circulation in the Northern South China Sea from Altimetry Data and a Numerical Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    CAI Shuqun; ZHENG Shu; HE Yinghui

    2012-01-01

    Based on the EOF analyses of Absolute Dynamic Topography satellite data,it is found that,in summer,the northern South China Sea (SCS) is dominated by an anticyclonic gyre whilst by a cyclonic one in winter.A connected single-layer and two-layer model is employed here to investigate the dynamic mechanism of the circulation in the northern SCS.Numerical experiments show that the nonlinear term,the pressure torque and the planetary vorticity advection play important roles in the circulation of the northern SCS,whilst the contribution by seasonal wind stress curl is local and limited.Only a small part of the Kuroshio water intrudes into the SCS,it then induces a positive vorticity band extending southwestward from the west of the Luzon Strait (LS) and a negative vorticity band along the 200 m isobath of the northern basin.The positive vorticity field induced by the local summer wind stress curl is weaker than that induced in winter in the northern SCS.Besides the Kuroshio intrusion and monsoon,the water transports via the Sunda Shelf and the Sibutu Passage are also important to the circulation in the northern SCS,and the induced vorticity field in summer is almost contrary to that in winter.The strength variations of these three key factors (Kuroshio,monsoon and the water transports via the Sunda Shelf and the Sibutu Passage) determine the seasonal variations of the vorticity and eddy fields in the northern SCS.As for the water exchange via the LS,the Kuroshio intrusion brings about a net inflow into the SCS,and the monsoon has a less effect,whilst the water transports via the Snnda Shelf and the Sibutu Passage are the most important influencing factors,thus,the water exchange of the SCS with the Pacific via the LS changes dramatically from an outflow of the SCS in summer to an inflow into the SCS in winter.

  19. Modeling petroleum generation and geochemistry of crude oils in Ras Budran field, northern gulf of Suez, Egypt: implications for prospectivity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Younes, M.A. [Geology Dept., Alexandria Univ. (Egypt)

    2005-12-01

    Petroleum generation modeling of the pre-rift succession in Ras Budran Field, which is located in the northern Gulf of Suez province in Egypt, showed that the best oil prone source rocks identified are the carbonate dominated one in the Upper Cretaceous and the Middle Eocene. These source rocks contain type-II kerogen (liptinitic materials) and progressively increase in their peak of oil generation from 0.63 and 0.83 vitrinite reflectance at a depth of about 3000 meters during the early of middle Miocene age and could have charged traps during the intra Rudeis tectonic phase. Crude oil and source rock extract interrelationships display a great similarity in their geologic occurrences and biological marker distributions. The biomarker characteristics indicate a low relative abundance of oleanane index around 5% pristane/phytane ratio<1, higher C{sub 35}/C{sub 34} homohopanes>1 and higher gammacerane indices >30%, suggesting a typical marine organic matter with source rock deposition under reducing conditions, Marginally mature stage of oil generation is indicated by the relatively low sterane isomerization of C{sub 29} {alpha}{alpha}{alpha} 20S/(S+R) and C{sub 29}{alpha}{beta}{beta}/({alpha}{beta}{beta}+{alpha}{alpha}{alpha}) of about 06 and relatively low aromatic sulfur compound rations. Crude oil geochemistry and related source rock potential define genetically related oils which ware generated from marginally mature and organic-rich carbonate source rocks, most probably from the pre-rift Duwi and Thebes formations. The best oil prone for future prospectivity would be oriented west of Ras Budran Field toward the deep marine of the Gulf, where the undiscovered reserves are expected to be accumulated within the pre-rift reservoirs in the footwalls of the normal faulted blocks. (orig.)

  20. Challenges in Modeling Debris-Flow Initiation during the Exceptional September 2013 Northern Colorado Front Range Rainstorm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baum, R. L.; Coe, J. A.; Godt, J.; Kean, J. W.

    2014-12-01

    Heavy rainfall during 9 - 13 September 2013 induced about 1100 debris flows in the foothills and mountains of the northern Colorado Front Range. Eye-witness accounts and fire-department records put the times of greatest landslide activity during the times of heaviest rainfall on September 12 - 13. Antecedent soil moisture was relatively low, particularly at elevations below 2250 m where many of the debris flows occurred, based on 45 - 125 mm of summer precipitation and absence of rainfall for about 2 weeks before the storm. Mapping from post-event imagery and field observations indicated that most debris flows initiated as small, shallow landslides. These landslides typically formed in colluvium that consisted of angular clasts in a sandy or silty matrix, depending on the nature of the parent bedrock. Weathered bedrock was partially exposed in the basal surfaces of many of the shallow source areas at depths ranging from 0.2 to 5 m, and source areas commonly occupied less than 500 m2. Although 49% of the source areas occurred in swales and 3 % in channels, where convergent flow might have contributed to pore-pressure build up during the rainfall, 48% of the source areas occurred on open slopes. Upslope contributing areas of most landslides (58%) were small (debris flows. Effects of variable soil depth and properties, vegetation, and rainfall must be examined to explain the dominance of debris flows on south-facing slopes. Accounting for the small sizes and mixed swale and open-slope settings of source areas demands new approaches for resolving soil-depth and physical-properties variability. The low-moisture initial conditions require consideration of unsaturated zone effects. Ongoing fieldwork and computational modeling are aimed at addressing these challenges related to initiation of the September 2013 debris flows.

  1. Characterization of the northern Red Sea's oceanic features with remote sensing data and outputs from a global circulation model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmed Eladawy

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Sea surface temperature (SST and surface wind (SW are considered the most important components in air–sea interactions. This study examines the relationships between SST, SW and various oceanic variables in the northern Red Sea (NRS during the period of 2000–2014. The current study is the first attempt to identify the SST fronts and their relationship with the dominant circulation patterns. SST fronts are mapped using the Cayula and Cornillon algorithms. The analysis is performed with available remote sensing and reanalyzed data together with 1/12° HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM outputs. Seasonal-trend decomposition procedure based on loess (STL is applied for trend analysis, and Principal Component Analysis (PCA is run for the atmospheric parameters. The SST, SW speed and Chlorophyll-a (Chl-a changes show insignificant trends during the period of 2000–2014. Meridional SST fronts are more significant during the month of January, and fronts that are perpendicular to the sea's axis occur from February to May. Distinct monthly and spatial variations are present in all the examined parameters, although these variations are less pronounced for the wind direction. The SST is mainly controlled by the air temperature and sea level pressure. Significant correlations exist between the SST and the studied parameters (alongshore wind stress rather than the cross-shore wind stress, surface circulation, MLD, and Chl-a. Surface winds generally flow southeastward parallel to the Red Sea's axis explaining that alongshore wind stress is highly correlated with the studied parameters.

  2. Evaluation of trail-cameras for analyzing the diet of nesting raptors using the Northern Goshawk as a model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    García-Salgado, Gonzalo; Rebollo, Salvador; Pérez-Camacho, Lorenzo; Martínez-Hesterkamp, Sara; Navarro, Alberto; Fernández-Pereira, José-Manuel

    2015-01-01

    Diet studies present numerous methodological challenges. We evaluated the usefulness of commercially available trail-cameras for analyzing the diet of Northern Goshawks (Accipiter gentilis) as a model for nesting raptors during the period 2007-2011. We compared diet estimates obtained by direct camera monitoring of 80 nests with four indirect analyses of prey remains collected from the nests and surroundings (pellets, bones, feather-and-hair remains, and feather-hair-and-bone remains combined). In addition, we evaluated the performance of the trail-cameras and whether camera monitoring affected Goshawk behavior. The sensitivity of each diet-analysis method depended on prey size and taxonomic group, with no method providing unbiased estimates for all prey sizes and types. The cameras registered the greatest number of prey items and were probably the least biased method for estimating diet composition. Nevertheless this direct method yielded the largest proportion of prey unidentified to species level, and it underestimated small prey. Our trail-camera system was able to operate without maintenance for longer periods than what has been reported in previous studies with other types of cameras. Initially Goshawks showed distrust toward the cameras but they usually became habituated to its presence within 1-2 days. The habituation period was shorter for breeding pairs that had previous experience with cameras. Using trail-cameras to monitor prey provisioning to nests is an effective tool for studying the diet of nesting raptors. However, the technique is limited by technical failures and difficulties in identifying certain prey types. Our study also shows that cameras can alter adult Goshawk behavior, an aspect that must be controlled to minimize potential negative impacts.

  3. Evaluation of trail-cameras for analyzing the diet of nesting raptors using the Northern Goshawk as a model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gonzalo García-Salgado

    Full Text Available Diet studies present numerous methodological challenges. We evaluated the usefulness of commercially available trail-cameras for analyzing the diet of Northern Goshawks (Accipiter gentilis as a model for nesting raptors during the period 2007-2011. We compared diet estimates obtained by direct camera monitoring of 80 nests with four indirect analyses of prey remains collected from the nests and surroundings (pellets, bones, feather-and-hair remains, and feather-hair-and-bone remains combined. In addition, we evaluated the performance of the trail-cameras and whether camera monitoring affected Goshawk behavior. The sensitivity of each diet-analysis method depended on prey size and taxonomic group, with no method providing unbiased estimates for all prey sizes and types. The cameras registered the greatest number of prey items and were probably the least biased method for estimating diet composition. Nevertheless this direct method yielded the largest proportion of prey unidentified to species level, and it underestimated small prey. Our trail-camera system was able to operate without maintenance for longer periods than what has been reported in previous studies with other types of cameras. Initially Goshawks showed distrust toward the cameras but they usually became habituated to its presence within 1-2 days. The habituation period was shorter for breeding pairs that had previous experience with cameras. Using trail-cameras to monitor prey provisioning to nests is an effective tool for studying the diet of nesting raptors. However, the technique is limited by technical failures and difficulties in identifying certain prey types. Our study also shows that cameras can alter adult Goshawk behavior, an aspect that must be controlled to minimize potential negative impacts.

  4. On the effects of ENSO on ocean biogeochemistry in the Northern Humboldt Current System (NHCS): A modeling study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mogollón, Rodrigo; Calil, Paulo H. R.

    2017-08-01

    The response of the ocean biogeochemistry to intense El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events in the Northern Humboldt Current System (NHCS) is assessed with an eddy-resolving coupled physical-biogeochemical model. El Niño (EN) 1997-1998 and La Niña (LN) 1999-2000 are well reproduced, inducing large spatial and temporal variability of biogeochemical properties at three coastal upwelling centers along the Peruvian coast (Chimbote 9.4°S, Callao 12.1°S, and Pisco 14°S). During EN, the upper limit of the Oxygen Minimum Zone (OMZ) experiences an offshore displacement of, approximately, 60 km and a deepening of, approximately, 150 m when compared to neutral-ENSO conditions, thus ventilating the upper 100 m of the water column. In contrast, during LN, the OMZ tongue outcrops over the continental shelf deoxygenating the water column at all locations. During LN, at the southernmost location, enhanced Eddy Kinetic Energy (EKE) induces a leaking of the coastal nutrient inventory by horizontally advecting nitrogen from the nearshore region into the oligotrophic ocean. This leads to a reduction of biological production in the coastal zone. During EN, nitrification is an order of magnitude larger than denitrification in supplying the nitrite coastal pool. During LN peak, nitrification is reduced by 80%, while denitrification becomes equally important, evidencing a coupling between these two oxygen-dependent processes. The nitrogen removal due to suboxic activity is mostly controlled by the Anaerobic Ammonium Oxidation (Anammox) in the southern domain during neutral-ENSO conditions. Our results show that during EN, denitrification contributes with 60% of the total nitrogen removal. In contrast, Anammox contributes with 70% during LN. The outgassing of nitrous oxide (N2O), an intermediate product of denitrification, is reduced and enhanced during EN and LN, respectively, and it is strongly modulated by the spatiotemporal variability of oxygen in the environment.

  5. An ecological model of the Northern and Central Adriatic Sea: Analysis of ecosystem structure and fishing impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coll, Marta; Santojanni, Alberto; Palomera, Isabel; Tudela, Sergi; Arneri, Enrico

    2007-08-01

    A trophic mass-balance model was developed to characterise the food web structure and functioning of the Northern and Central Adriatic Sea and to quantify the ecosystem impacts of fishing during the 1990s. Forty functional groups were described, including target and non-target fish and invertebrate groups, and three detritus groups (natural detritus, discards and by-catch of cetaceans and marine turtles). Results highlighted that there was an important coupling between pelagic-benthic production of plankton, benthic invertebrates and detritus. Organisms located at low and medium trophic levels, (i.e. benthic invertebrates, zooplankton and anchovy), as well as dolphins, were identified as keystone groups of the ecosystem. Jellyfish were an important element in terms of consumption and production of trophic flows within the ecosystem. The analysis of trophic flows of zooplankton and detritus groups indirectly underlined the importance of the microbial food web in the Adriatic Sea. Fishing activities inflicted notable impacts on the ecosystem during the 1990s, with a high gross efficiency of the fishery, a high consumption of fishable production, high exploitation rates for various target and non target species, a low trophic level of the catch and medium values of primary production required to sustain the fishery. Moreover, the analysis of Odum's ecological indicators highlighted that the ecosystem was in a low-medium developmental stage. Bottom trawling ( Strascico), mid-water trawling ( Volante) and beam trawling ( Rapido) fleets had the highest impacts on both target and non target ecological groups. On the contrary, purse seining ( Lampara) showed medium to low impacts on the ecosystem; cetaceans, marine turtles and sea birds were not significantly involved in competition with fishing activity.

  6. Forests, Water, and the Atmosphere in Northern California: Insights from Sap-Flow Data Analysis and Numerical Atmospheric Model Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Link, Percy Anne

    Evapotranspiration cools the land surface by consuming a large fraction of the net radiative energy at the surface. In forested regions, trees actively control the rate of transpiration by modulating stomatal conductance in response to environmental conditions, and species with different stomatal dynamics can affect the atmosphere in distinct ways. Using principal component analysis (PCA) and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) parameter estimation with direct, tree-level measurements of water use, we show that Douglas-firs ( Pseudotsuga menziesii), a common evergreen needleleaf tree species in the Northern California Coast Range, decrease their transpiration sharply in the summer dry season in response to a dry root zone; and in contrast, broadleaf evergreen tree species, especially Pacific madrones (Arbutus menziesii), transpire maximally in the summer dry season because their transpiration is much less sensitive to a dry root zone and increases continually in response to increasing atmospheric evaporative demand. We scale up these tree-level observations to construct a bottom-up estimate of regional transpiration, and we use these regional estimates along with atmospheric models, one simple and one comprehensive, to quantify the potential impact of species transpiration differences on regional summertime climate. The atmospheric models suggest that these species differences in transpiration could affect the well-mixed atmospheric boundary layer temperature and humidity by 1-1.5 degrees C and 1 g/kg, respectively, and near-surface temperature and humidity by 1.5-2.5 degrees C and 2-3 g/kg, respectively. We further investigate the sensitivity of California climate to evapotranspiration by estimating the sensitivity of wind energy forecasts at a California wind farm to regional-scale perturbations in soil moisture using a regional atmospheric model. These tests show that forecasts at this particular farm are most sensitive to soil moisture in the Central Valley, and

  7. Regional based modeling approach for rainfall-induced debris flows in the continental-climatic Northern Tien Shan (SE Kazakhstan)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischer, Thomas; Küfmann, Carola; Haas, Florian; Baume, Otfried; Becht, Michael

    2013-04-01

    The high mountain systems of Central Asia (Hindukush, Pamir and Tien Shan) are dominated by continental-climatic conditions. Nevertheless, westerly maritime air circulation and convective rainfalls during the summer season result in high rainfall intensities. In combination with a high availability of unconsolidated material rainfall triggered debris flows are prominent and intensive geomorphologic processes in these mountain areas. The presented study aims to figure out a regional based modeling approach for rainfall-induced debris flow processes based on combination of a disposition model for debris flow starting zones with process-flow models. The investigation area has a size of about 700 square kilometers and is situated in the Northern Tien Shan mountains in SE Kazakhstan (investigation areas: valleys of Prochadnaja, Big Almatinka, Little Almatinka and Left Talgar). The area is characterized by mountain forest zone, alpine meadows and high-alpine glaciated areas with the highest peaks at 4500m. In a first step the disposition (point of process triggering) of actual debris flows was analyzed. Due to different triggering mechanisms, the processes were divided into channel-type and slope-type debris flows. Detailed mapping of actual debris flows initiation areas and a GIS-based geostatistical disposition analysis are used to identify the main geofactor-variables and geofactor combinations which enhance the triggering of rainfall-induced debris flows. It can be shown that both, longtime variable geofactors (such as local geomorphology and hydrology) plays a significant role for triggering debris flows, as well as mid- and short time variable geofactors. Especially actual permafrost distribution and degradation plus glacier retreat comes into the focus of interest. This is most notably for rainfall induced slope-type debris flows which primarily are triggered in the discontinuous and continuous permafrost areas eroding younger unconsolidated material from actual

  8. The Scientific Basis for Modeling Northern Spotted Owl Habitat: A Response to Loehle, Irwin, Manly, and Merrill

    Science.gov (United States)

    The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service recently revised the recovery plan (USFWS 2011) and designated Critical Habitat (USFWS 2012a) for the Northern Spotted Owl (Strix occidentalis caurina). The Critical Habitat designation was based in part on a map of relative habitat suitability...

  9. The scientific basis for modeling Northern Spotted Owl habitat: A response to Loehle, Irwin, Manly, and Merrill

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeffrey R. Dunk; Brian Woodbridge; Elizabeth M. Glenn; Raymond J. Davis; Katherine Fitzgerald; Paul Henson; David W. LaPlante; Bruce G. Marcot; Barry R. Noon; Martin G. Raphael; Nathan H. Schumaker; Brendan. White

    2015-01-01

    The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service recently revised the recovery plan (USFWS, 2011) and designated Critical Habitat (USFWS, 2012a) for the Northern Spotted Owl (Strix occidentalis caurina). The Critical Habitat designation was based in part on a map of relative habitat suitability that was developed by USFWS (2011, 2012b) for this purpose. Loehle...

  10. MODELING FLOW PATTERNS IN A SMALL VEGETATED AREA IN THE NORTHERN CHICHUAHUAN DESERT USING QUIC ( QUIC URBAN AND INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX )

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sandstorms are frequent in the northern Chihuahuan Desert in New Mexico, an area characterized by open areas lacking vegetation, individual mesquite bushes, and mesquite coppice dunes. Field measurements of sand fluxes and wind velocities over a two year period provided a descri...

  11. Multi-scale approach for 3D hydrostratigraphic and groundwater flow modelling of Milan (Northern Italy) urban aquifers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Caro, Mattia; Crosta, Giovanni; Frattini, Paolo; Perico, Roberta

    2017-04-01

    During the last century, urban groundwater was heavily exploited for public and industrial supply. As the water demands of industry have fallen, many cities are now experiencing rising groundwater levels with consequent concerns about localized flooding of basements, reduction of soil bearing capacities under foundations, soil internal erosion and the mobilization of contaminants. The city of Milan (Northern Italy) draws water for domestic and industrial purposes from aquifers beneath the urban area. The rate of abstraction has been varying during the last century, depending upon the number of inhabitants and the development of industrial activities. The groundwater abstraction raised to a maximum of about 350x106 m3/yr in the middle 1970s and has successively decreased to a value of about 230x106 m3/yr at present days. This caused a water table raise at an average rate of about 1 m/yr inducing infiltrations and flooding of deep constructions (e.g. building foundations and basements, underground subway excavations). Starting from a large hydrostratigraphic database (8628 borehole logs), a multi-scale approach for the reconstruction of the aquifers geometry (unconfined and semi-confined) at regional-scale has been used. First, a three-level hierarchical classification of the lithologies (lithofacies, hydrofacies, aquifer groups) has been adopted. Then, the interpretation of several 2D cross-sections was attained with Target for ArcGIS exploration software. The interpretation of cross-sections was based on the characteristics of depositional environments of the analysed aquifers (from meandering plain to proximal outwash deposits), on the position of quaternary deposits, and on the distribution of geochemical parameters (i.e. indicator contaminants and major ions). Finally, the aquifer boundary surfaces were interpolated with standard algorithms. The hydraulic properties of analysed aquifers were estimated through the analyses of available step-drawdown tests (Theis

  12. A coupled physical-biological model of the Northern Gulf of Mexico shelf: model description, validation and analysis of phytoplankton variability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Fennel

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available The Texas-Louisiana shelf in the Northern Gulf of Mexico receives large inputs of nutrients and freshwater from the Mississippi/Atchafalaya River system. The nutrients stimulate high rates of primary production in the river plume, which contributes to the development of a large and recurring hypoxic area in summer, but the mechanistic links between hypoxia and river discharge of freshwater and nutrients are complex as the accumulation and vertical export of organic matter, the establishment and maintenance of vertical stratification, and the microbial degradation of organic matter are controlled by a non-linear interplay of factors. Unraveling these interactions will have to rely on a combination of observations and models. Here we present results from a realistic, 3-dimensional, physical-biological model with focus on a quantification of nutrient-stimulated phytoplankton growth, its variability and the fate of this organic matter. We demonstrate that the model realistically reproduces many features of observed nitrate and phytoplankton dynamics including observed property distributions and rates. We then contrast the environmental factors and phytoplankton source and sink terms characteristic of three model subregions that represent an ecological gradient from eutrophic to oligotrophic conditions. We analyze specifically the reasons behind the counterintuitive observation that primary production in the light-limited plume region near the Mississippi River delta is positively correlated with river nutrient input, and find that, while primary production and phytoplankton biomass are positively correlated with nutrient load, phytoplankton growth rate is not. This suggests that accumulation of biomass in this region is not primarily controlled bottom up by nutrient-stimulation, but top down by systematic differences in the loss processes.

  13. Testing the steady-state water chemistry model predictions of pre-industrial lake pH with paleolimnological data from northern Sweden.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bishop, K; Rapp, L; Köhler, S; Korsman, T

    2008-12-15

    Criteria are needed for distinguishing naturally acid water from that acidified by air pollution, especially in the organic-rich waters of northern Sweden. The Steady-State Water Chemistry Model (SSWC) was augmented to include organic acidity so that it could predict pre-industrial pH in organic-rich waters. The resulting model predictions of pre-industrial ANC and pH were then tested against diatom predictions of pre-industrial pH and alkalinity in 58 lakes from N. Sweden (after alkalinity was converted to ANC using the CBALK method). The SSWC Model's predictions of pre-industrial lake pH in N. Sweden did not correspond well with the diatom predictions, even when accounting for the uncertainty in the diatom model. This was due to the SSWC's sensitivity to short-term fluctuations in contemporary water chemistry. Thus the SSWC Model is not suitable for judging the acidification of individual lakes in areas such as northern Sweden where the degree of chronic acidification is small, or without a good average value of contemporary water chemistry. These results should be considered when assessing the accuracy of critical loads calculated using SSWC.

  14. A coupled physical-biological model of the Northern Gulf of Mexico shelf: model description, validation and analysis of phytoplankton variability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Fennel

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The Texas-Louisiana shelf in the Northern Gulf of Mexico receives large inputs of nutrients and freshwater from the Mississippi/Atchafalaya River system. The nutrients stimulate high rates of primary production in the river plume, which contributes to the development of a large and recurring hypoxic area in summer. The mechanistic links between hypoxia and river discharge of freshwater and nutrients are complex as the accumulation and vertical export of organic matter, the establishment and maintenance of vertical stratification, and the microbial degradation of organic matter are controlled by a non-linear interplay of factors. We present results from a realistic, 3-dimensional, physical-biological model that includes the processes thought to be of first order importance to hypoxia formation and demonstrate that the model realistically reproduces many features of observed nitrate and phytoplankton dynamics including observed property distributions and rates. We then contrast the environmental factors and phytoplankton source and sink terms characteristic of three model subregions that represent an ecological gradient from eutrophic to oligotrophic conditions. We analyze specifically the reasons behind the counterintuitive observation that primary production in the light-limited plume region near the Mississippi River delta is positively correlated with river nutrient input. We find that, while primary production and phytoplankton biomass are positively correlated with nutrient load, phytoplankton growth rate is not. This suggests that accumulation of biomass in this region is not primarily controlled bottom up by nutrient-stimulation, but top down by systematic differences in the loss processes. We hypothesize that increased retention of river water in high discharge years explains this phenomenon.

  15. Emissions and behaviour of selected persistent organic pollutants (POPs) in the Northern environment. Part I: Development of the cycling model and emission and environmental data bases

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pacyna, J.M.; Wania, F. [Norsk Inst. for Luftforskning, Kjeller (Norway); Brorstroem-Lunden, E. [Swedish Environmental Research Inst., Goeteborg (Sweden); Paasivirta, J. [Jyvaeskylae Univ. (Finland); Runge, E.

    1996-03-01

    The overall goal of the reported project was to improve the knowledge on the inputs, transport, and migration of selected POPs (Persistent Organic Pollutants) in the Northern environments. A comprehensive steady-state mass balance model, so-called B-POP model, has been developed within the project. This model is based on the fugacity approach and comprises a number of compartments which are assumed to have homogeneous environmental conditions and chemical concentrations. Mass balance equations for all compartments were formulated and solved for the chemical fugacity in each compartment. The B-POP model was then tested to describe the migration of PCBs (Polychlorinated Biphenyls). It was concluded that the model succeeds in outlining the general picture of PCB behaviour in the Baltic Sea by identifying the major environmental pathways and reservoirs within the system. 36 refs., 6 figs., 10 tabs.

  16. Numerical Simulation of Inter-basin Groundwater Flow into Northern Yucca Flat, Nevada National Security Site, Using the Death Valley Regional Flow System Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pohlmann Karl,Ye Ming

    2012-03-01

    Models of groundwater flow for the Yucca Flat area of the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS) are under development by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) for corrective action investigations of the Yucca Flat-Climax Mine Corrective Action Unit (CAU). One important aspect of these models is the quantity of inter-basin groundwater flow from regional systems to the north. This component of flow, together with its uncertainty, must be properly accounted for in the CAU flow models to provide a defensible regional framework for calculations of radionuclide transport that will support determinations of the Yucca Flat-Climax Mine contaminant boundary. Because characterizing flow boundary conditions in northern Yucca Flat requires evaluation to a higher level of detail than the scale of the Yucca Flat-Climax Mine CAU model can efficiently provide, a study more focused on this aspect of the model was required.

  17. Double seismic zone of the Nazca plate in northern Chile: High-resolution velocity structure, petrological implications, and thermomechanical modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dorbath, Catherine; Gerbault, Muriel; Carlier, Gabriel; Guiraud, Michel

    2008-07-01

    This paper presents an interdisciplinary study of the northern Chile double seismic zone. First, a high-resolution velocity structure of the subducting Nazca plate has been obtained by the tomoDD double-difference tomography method. The double seismic zone (DSZ) is observed between 80 and 140 km depth, and the two seismic planes is 20 km apart. Then, the chemical and petrologic characteristics of the oceanic lithosphere associated with this DSZ are deduced by using current thermal-petrological-seismological models and are compared to pressure-temperature conditions provided by a numerical thermomechanical model. Our results agree with the common hypothesis that seismicity in both upper and lower planes is related to fluid releases associated with metamorphic dehydration reactions. In the seismic upper plane located within the upper crust, these reactions would affect material of basaltic (MORB) composition and document different metamorphic reactions occurring within high-P (>2.4 GPa) and low-T (130 km), lawsonite-amphibole eclogite conditions. The lower plane lying in the oceanic mantle can be associated with serpentinite dehydration reactions. The Vp and Vs characteristics of the region in between both planes are consistent with a partially (˜25-30 vol % antigorite, ˜0-10% vol % brucite, and ˜4-10 vol % chlorite) hydrated harzburgitic material. Discrepancies persist that we attribute to complexities inherent to heterogeneous structural compositions. While various geophysical indicators evidence particularly cold conditions in both the descending Nazca plate and the continental fore arc, thermomechanical models indicate that both seismic planes delimit the inner slab compressional zone around the 400°C (±50°C) isotherm. Lower plane earthquakes are predicted to occur in the slab's flexural neutral plane, where fluids released from surrounding metamorphic reactions could accumulate and trigger seismicity. Fluids migrating upward from the tensile zone below

  18. Developing a panarchy model of landscape conservation and management of alpine-mountain grassland in Northern Italy.

    OpenAIRE

    Ian David Soane; Rocco Scolozzi; Beatrice Marelli; Cristina Orsatti; Klaus Hubacek; Alessandro Gretter

    2011-01-01

    This paper explores methods of applying resilience theory to a case study of natural resource management and the cultural landscape of upland and alpine pasture in northern Italy. We identify that the close interaction between alpine pastures and its managers offers a strong fit with the concept of a social-ecological system that maintains the cultural landscape. We first considered a descriptive approach looking historically at socio-economic development in the study area. We explored whethe...

  19. Monitoring and comparison of terrestrial water storage changes in the northern high plains using GRACE and in-situ based integrated hydrologic model estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seyoum, Wondwosen M.; Milewski, Adam M.

    2016-08-01

    Enhanced measurement of the variation of the terrestrial water cycle are imperative to better understand the dynamics, water availability, and evaluate impacts of global changes on the water cycle. This study quantified storage in the various terrestrial water compartments using an integrated hydrologic model (IHM) - MIKE SHE that simulates the entire terrestrial water cycle and the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite data in the intensively irrigated Northern High Plains (area ∼ 250,000 km2). The IHM, mainly constructed using in-situ data, was evaluated using field measured groundwater level, stream flow, and soil moisture data. The model was first used to calculate the incremental water storage for each water balance component (e.g. storage in the saturated zone) and then the GRACE equivalent terrestrial water storage anomaly. In the study area, storage in the saturated zone is the major component of the terrestrial water storage (TWS) anomaly. The GRACE-derived TWS anomaly and the anomaly simulated from the model are generally in agreement on a monthly scale with few discrepancies. Generally, both GRACE and the IHM results displayed a statistically significant increasing trend in the total TWS and groundwater storage anomalies from 2002-2013 over the Northern High Plains. This study demonstrates the applicability of an integrated hydrologic model to monitor TWS variations in a large area, and GRACE data and IHMs are capable of reproducing observed trends in TWS.

  20. ENSO forcing of the Northern Hemisphere climate in a large ensemble of model simulations based on a very long SST record

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Herceg Bulic, Ivana [University of Zagreb, Andrija Mohorovicic Geophysical Institute, Faculty of Science, Zagreb (Croatia); Brankovic, Cedo [Croatian Meteorological and Hydrological Service, Zagreb (Croatia)

    2007-02-15

    The January-March (JFM) climate response of the Northern Hemisphere atmosphere to observed sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies for the period 1855-2002 is analysed from a 35-member ensemble made with SPEEDY, an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) of intermediate complexity. The model was run at the T30-L8 resolution, and initial conditions and the early stage of model runs differ among ensemble members in the definition of tropical diabatic heating. SST anomalies in the Nino3.4 region were categorised into five classes extending from strong cold to strong warm. Composites based on such a categorisation enabled an analysis of the influence of the tropical Pacific SST on the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation with an emphasis on the Pacific-North America (PNA) and the North Atlantic-Europe (NAE) regions. As expected, the strongest signal was detected over the PNA region. An ''asymmetry'' in the model response was found for the opposite polarity of the Nino3.4 index; however, this asymmetry stems mainly from the difference in the amplitude of model response rather than from the phase shift between responses to warm and cold El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. The extratropical signal associated with warm ENSO events was found to be stronger than that related to cold events. The results also reveal that, for the PNA region, the amplitude of the response is positively correlated with the strength of ENSO, irrespective of the sign of ENSO. With almost no phase shift between model responses to El Nino and La Nina, the linear component of the response is much stronger than the non-linear component. Although the model climate response over the NAE region is much weaker than that over the PNA region, some striking similarities with the PNA are found. Both sea level pressure and precipitation responses are positively correlated with the strength of ENSO. This is not true for the 200-hPa geopotential heights, and no plausible

  1. USE OF THE “ROTHC” MODEL TO SIMULATE SOIL ORGANIC CARBON DYNAMICS ON A SILTY-LOAM INCEPTISOL IN NORTHERN ITALY UNDER DIFFERENT FERTILIZATION PRACTICES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rosa Francaviglia

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available We evaluated the efficiency of the RothC model to simulate Soil Organic Carbon (SOC dynamics after 12 years of organic and mineral fertilization practices in a study area located in northern Italy, on a silty-loam Inceptisol with a rotation including tomato, maize and alfalfa. The model performance was assessed by RMSE and EF coefficients. RothC simulated well observed SOC decreases in 71 samples (RMSE=7.42; EF=0.79, while performed with less accuracy when considering all samples (96 samples; RMSE=12.37; EF=0.58, due to the fact that the model failed in case of measured SOC increases (25 samples; RMSE=20.77; EF=-0.038. The model was used to forecast the SOC dynamics over a 50 year period under the same pedoclimatic conditions. Only clay contents >15% allowed to predict increasing levels of SOC respect to the starting values.

  2. Sedimentary facies and gas accumulation model of Lower Shihezi Formation in Shenguhao area, northern Ordos basin, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Weibing; Chen, Lin; Lu, Yongchao; Zhao, Shuai

    2017-04-01

    The Lower Shihezi formation of lower Permian series in Shenguhao develops the highest gas abundance of upper Paleozoic in China, which has already commercially produced on a large scale. The structural location of Shenguhao belongs to the transition zone of Yimeng uplift and Yishan slope of northern Ordos basin, China. Based on the data of core, well logging and seismic, the sedimentary facies and gas accumulation model have been studied in this paper. Sedimentary facies analysis shows that the braided delta is the major facies type developed in this area during the period of Lower Shihezi formation. The braided delta can be further divided into two microfacies, distributary channel and flood plain. The distributary channel sandbody develops the characteristics of scour surface, trough cross beddings and normal grading sequences. Its seismic reflection structure is with the shape of flat top and concave bottom. Its gamma-ray logging curve is mainly in a box or bell shape. The flood plain is mainly composed of thick mudstones. Its seismic reflection structure is with the shape of parallel or sub-parallel sheet. Its gamma-ray logging curve is mainly in a linear tooth shape. On the whole, the distribution of sandbody is characterized by large thickness, wide area and good continuity. Based on the analysis of the sea level change and the restoration of the ancient landform in the period of Lower Shihezi formation, the sea level relative change and morphology of ancient landform have been considered as the main controlling factors for the development and distribution of sedimentary facies. The topography was with big topographic relief, and the sea level was relatively low in the early stage of Low Shihezi formation. The sandbody distributed chiefly along the landform depressions. The sandbody mainly developed in the pattern of multiple vertical superpositions with thick layer. In the later stage, landform gradually converted to be flat, and strata tended to be gentle

  3. Moving from pixels to parcels: Modeling agricultural scenarios in the northern Great Plains using a hybrid raster- and vector-based approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sohl, T.; Wika, S.; Dornbierer, J.; Sayler, K. L.; Quenzer, R.

    2015-12-01

    Policy and economic driving forces have resulted in a higher demand for biofuel feedstocks in recent years, resulting in substantial increases in cultivated cropland in the northern Great Plains. A cellulosic-based biofuel industry could potentially further impact the region, with grassland and marginal agricultural land converted to perennial grasses or other feedstocks. Scenarios of projected land-use change are needed to enable regional stakeholders to plan for the potential consequences of expanded agricultural activity. Land-use models used to produce spatially explicit scenarios are typically raster-based and are poor at representing ownership units on which land-use change is based. This work describes a hybrid raster/vector-based modeling approach for modeling scenarios of agricultural change in the northern Great Plains. Regional scenarios of agricultural change from 2012 to 2050 were constructed, based partly on the U.S. Department of Energy's Billion Ton Update. Land-use data built from the 2012 Cropland Data Layer and the 2011 National Land Cover Database was used to establish initial conditions. Field boundaries from the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Common Land Unit dataset were used to establish ownership units. A modified version of the U.S. Geological Survey's Forecasting Scenarios of land-use (FORE-SCE) model was used to ingest vector-based field boundaries to facilitate the modeling of a farmer's choice of land use for a given year, while patch-based raster methodologies were used to represent expansion of urban/developed lands and other land use conversions. All modeled data were merged to a common raster dataset representing annual land use from 2012 to 2050. The hybrid modeling approach enabled the use of traditional, raster-based methods while integrating vector-based data to represent agricultural fields and other ownership-based units upon which land-use decisions are typically made.

  4. Three-dimensional water quality model based on FVCOM for total load control management in Guan River Estuary, Northern Jiangsu Province

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Li; Lin, Weibo; Li, Keqiang; Sheng, Jianming; Wei, Aihong; Luo, Feng; Wang, Yan; Wang, Xiulin; Zhang, Longjun

    2016-04-01

    Guan River Estuary and adjacent coastal area (GREC) suffer from serious pollution and eutrophicational problems over the recent years. Thus, reducing the land-based load through the national pollutant total load control program and developing hydrodynamic and water quality models that can simulate the complex circulation and water quality kinetics within the system, including longitudinal and lateral variations in nutrient and COD concentrations, is a matter of urgency. In this study, a three-dimensional, hydrodynamic, water quality model was developed in GREC, Northern Jiangsu Province. The complex three-dimensional hydrodynamics of GREC were modeled using the unstructured-grid, finite-volume, free-surface, primitive equation coastal ocean circulation model (FVCOM). The water quality model was adapted from the mesocosm nutrients dynamic model in the south Yellow Sea and considers eight compartments: dissolved inorganic nitrogen, soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP), phytoplankton, zooplankton, detritus, dissolved organic nitrogen (DON), dissolved organic phosphorus (DOP), and chemical oxygen demand. The hydrodynamic and water quality models were calibrated and confirmed for 2012 and 2013. A comparison of the model simulations with extensive dataset shows that the models accurately simulate the longitudinal distribution of the hydrodynamics and water quality. The model can be used for total load control management to improve water quality in this area.

  5. The impact of winter 2012 cold outbreak over the Northern Adriatic Sea dynamics: preliminary comparison among data and high resolution operational atmospheric models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davolio, Silvio; Miglietta, Mario M.; Carniel, Sandro; Benetazzo, Alvise; Buzzi, Andrea; Drofa, Oxana; Falco, Pierpaolo; Fantini, Maurizio; Malguzzi, Piero; Ricchi, Antonio; Russo, Aniello; Paccagnella, Tiziana; Sclavo, Mauro

    2013-04-01

    Shelf dense water formation (DWF) events may be taking place during winter time on the broad, shallow shelf in the northern region of the Adriatic basin exposed to the Bora winds, bringing cold, dry air from the north-east down the Dinaric Alps. Indeed, the resulting intense evaporation and cooling of the shelf waters may produce North Adriatic Dense Water (NAdDW), which then tends to sink and ''cascade'' all the way to the southern basin. During these rather episodic formation processes, more frequent during winter time, the main controlling factors are intense cold wind out- breaks, the ambient water density, preconditioned during late autumn, and also other factors, e.g. river discharges. When such processes of buoyancy extraction happen, several isopycnic surfaces outcrop and very often the whole water column (20-25 m deep) may be ventilated. However, the general process of northern water masses flowing to the southern part of the Adriatic basin is complex and far from being completely understood. In order to understand and model these processes, it is mandatory to utilize high resolution meteorological forcing fields and circulation models, at least to model particular events in Adriatic marine circulation, if not its longer term (e.g., seasonal) characteristics. The use of low resolution winds in fact necessarily implies a calibration factor to better match surface fluxes and to reproduce wind-driven circulation. This is particularly evident in the case of the cross-basin Bora pattern, because the complexity and small scale of Adriatic orography is often poorly reproduced in atmospheric models, while Bora flow is composed of an alternation of high and low wind speed 'strips' crossing the Adriatic in correspondence of the fine scale (10-100 km) Balkanic orographic gaps. Within the framework of activities of the Italian flagship Project "RITMARE" and of the FIRB "DECALOGO", we focused on the current meteorological modeling capabilities to describe an event of

  6. Improved regional groundwater flow modeling using drainage features: a case study of the central northern karst aquifer system of Puerto Rico (USA)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghasemizadeh, Reza; Yu, Xue; Butscher, Christoph; Padilla, Ingrid Y.; Alshawabkeh, Akram

    2016-09-01

    In northern Puerto Rico (USA), subsurface conduit networks with unknown characteristics, and surface features such as springs, rivers, lagoons and wetlands, drain the coastal karst aquifers. In this study, drain lines connecting sinkholes and springs are used to improve the developed regional model by simulating the drainage effects of conduit networks. Implemented in an equivalent porous media (EPM) approach, the model with drains is able to roughly reproduce the spring discharge hydrographs in response to rainfall. Hydraulic conductivities are found to be scale dependent and significantly increase with higher test radius, indicating scale dependency of the EPM approach. Similar to other karst regions in the world, hydraulic gradients are steeper where the transmissivity is lower approaching the coastline. This study enhances current understanding of the complex flow patterns in karst aquifers and suggests that using a drainage feature improves modeling results where available data on conduit characteristics are minimal.

  7. Northern African climate at the end of the twenty-first century: an integrated application of regional and global climate models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Patricola, Christina M. [Cornell University, Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Ithaca, NY (United States); Cook, Kerry H. [The University of Texas at Austin, Jackson School of Geosciences, Austin, TX (United States)

    2010-07-15

    A method for simulating future climate on regional space scales is developed and applied to northern Africa. Simulation with a regional model allows for the horizontal resolution needed to resolve the region's strong meridional gradients and the optimization of parameterizations and land-surface model. The control simulation is constrained by reanalysis data, and realistically represents the present day climate. Atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) output provides SST and lateral boundary condition anomalies for 2081-2100 under a business-as-usual emissions scenario, and the atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentration is increased to 757 ppmv. A nine-member ensemble of future climate projections is generated by using output from nine AOGCMs. The consistency of precipitation projections for the end of the twenty-first century is much greater for the regional model ensemble than among the AOGCMs. More than 77% of ensemble members produce the same sign rainfall anomaly over much of northern Africa. For West Africa, the regional model projects wetter conditions in spring, but a mid-summer drought develops during June and July, and the heat stoke risk increases across the Sahel. Wetter conditions resume in late summer, and the likelihood of flooding increases. The regional model generally projects wetter conditions over eastern Central Africa in June and drying during August through September. Severe drought impacts parts of East Africa in late summer. Conditions become wetter in October, but the enhanced rainfall does not compensate for the summertime deficit. The risk of heat stroke increases over this region, although the threat is not projected to be as great as in the Sahel. (orig.)

  8. Modelling the location of shallow landslides and their effects on landscape dynamics in large watersheds: An application for Northern New Zealand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Claessens, L.; Schoorl, J. M.; Veldkamp, A.

    2007-06-01

    In this study we propose a model to assess the location of shallow landslides and their impact on landscape development within a timeframe of years to decades. Processes that need to be incorporated in the model are reviewed then followed by the proposed modelling framework. The capabilities of the model are explored through an application for a forested 17 km 2 study catchment in Northern New Zealand for which digital elevation data are available with a grid resolution of 25 × 25 m. The model predicts the spatial pattern of landslide susceptibility within the simulated catchment and subsequently applies a spatial algorithm for the redistribution of failed material by effectively changing the corresponding digital elevation data after each timestep on the basis of a scenario of triggering rainfall events, relative landslide hazard and trajectories with runout criteria for failed slope material. The resulting model will form a landslide module within the dynamic landscape evolution model LAPSUS. The model forms a spatially explicit method to address the effects of shallow landslide erosion and sedimentation because digital elevation data are adapted between timesteps and on- and off-site effects over the years can be simulated in this way. By visualization of the modelling results in a GIS environment, the shifting pattern of upslope and downslope (in) stability, triggering of new landslides and the resulting slope retreat by soil material redistribution due to former mass movements can be simulated and assessed.

  9. Three-dimensional hydrogeologic framework model of the Rio Grande transboundary region of New Mexico and Texas, USA, and northern Chihuahua, Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sweetkind, Donald S.

    2017-09-08

    As part of a U.S. Geological Survey study in cooperation with the Bureau of Reclamation, a digital three-dimensional hydrogeologic framework model was constructed for the Rio Grande transboundary region of New Mexico and Texas, USA, and northern Chihuahua, Mexico. This model was constructed to define the aquifer system geometry and subsurface lithologic characteristics and distribution for use in a regional numerical hydrologic model. The model includes five hydrostratigraphic units: river channel alluvium, three informal subdivisions of Santa Fe Group basin fill, and an undivided pre-Santa Fe Group bedrock unit. Model input data were compiled from published cross sections, well data, structure contour maps, selected geophysical data, and contiguous compilations of surficial geology and structural features in the study area. These data were used to construct faulted surfaces that represent the upper and lower subsurface hydrostratigraphic unit boundaries. The digital three-dimensional hydrogeologic framework model is constructed through combining faults, the elevation of the tops of each hydrostratigraphic unit, and boundary lines depicting the subsurface extent of each hydrostratigraphic unit. The framework also compiles a digital representation of the distribution of sedimentary facies within each hydrostratigraphic unit. The digital three-dimensional hydrogeologic model reproduces with reasonable accuracy the previously published subsurface hydrogeologic conceptualization of the aquifer system and represents the large-scale geometry of the subsurface aquifers. The model is at a scale and resolution appropriate for use as the foundation for a numerical hydrologic model of the study area.

  10. A new hydrogeological model of charging shallow and deep aquifers in the Lake Neusiedl - Seewinkel region (Northern Burgenland, Austria)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Häusler, Hermann; Müllegger, Christian; Körner, Wilfried; Ottner, Franz; Prohaska, Thomas; Irrgeher, Johanna; Tchaikovsky, Anastassiya; Dober, Gregor; Gritzmann, Romana; Mykhaylyuk, Ivanna

    2014-05-01

    The hypothesis of ascending thermal groundwater in the Seewinkel was introduced by Tauber (1965), favoured by Schmid (1970), and followed up by Wurm (2000). The main idea of this hypothesis was up welling of saline waters from a deep aquifer along faults, which in the 1950s have been identified as such in seismic sections. An aquifer of marine deposits of Badenian to Sarmatian age was postulated as source, and hydrochemical composition of water should have changed during migration due to high contents of sodium carbonate and sulphate instead of potassium chloride in the shallow groundwater bodies of the Seewinkel. Häusler (2010) argued, however, that fault aquifers discharging saline waters nowhere have been identified in this region. Supposed that according to the ascendance hypothesis ion composition of up welling formation water could have undergone a change, the primary isotope signal of marine water should have not. In order to get a better insight to the groundwater cycle we compare results from geochemical analyses, clay mineralogical analyses, and leachates of source rocks of potential recharge areas with respective analyses of shallow and deep aquifers, and apply the method of stable hydroisotopes such as oxygen, deuterium, strontium and chloride for distinguishing origin of groundwaters. We evaluate the hypothesis of up welling connate waters, and eventually come up with a new conceptual hydrogeological model for the Neusiedl-Seewinkel region regarding composition, origin, flow direction and residence time of groundwater in shallow and deeper aquifers. The very low value of -12.26‰ for oxygen isotope ratio of thermal groundwater from the deepest aquifer drilled to a depth of about 1000 metres at Frauenkirchen in northern Seewinkel, which is not highly mineralised, excludes connate water as major source, which basically is characterized by high oxygen isotope ratio values. Taking into account that oxygen isotope ratio-values ranging from -12.0‰ to -10

  11. Changes in the Intensity and Frequency of Atmospheric Blocking and Associated Heat Waves During Northern Summer Over Eurasia in the CMIP5 Model Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Kyu-Myong; Lau, K. M.; Wu, H. T.; Kim, Maeng-Ki; Cho, Chunho

    2012-01-01

    The Russia heat wave and wild fires of the summer of 2010 was the most extreme weather event in the history of the country. Studies show that the root cause of the 2010 Russia heat wave/wild fires was an atmospheric blocking event which started to develop at the end of June and peaked around late July and early August. Atmospheric blocking in the summer of 2010 was anomalous in terms of the size, duration, and the location, which shifted to the east from the normal location. This and other similar continental scale severe summertime heat waves and blocking events in recent years have raised the question of whether such events are occurring more frequently and with higher intensity in a warmer climate induced by greenhouse gases. We studied the spatial and temporal distributions of the occurrence and intensity of atmospheric blocking and associated heat waves for northern summer over Eurasia based on CMIPS model simulations. To examine the global warming induced change of atmospheric blocking and heat waves, experiments for a high emissions scenario (RCP8.S) and a medium mitigation scenario (RCP4.S) are compared to the 20th century simulations (historical). Most models simulate the mean distributions of blockings reasonably well, including major blocking centers over Eurasia, northern Pacific, and northern Atlantic. However, the models tend to underestimate the number of blockings compared to MERRA and NCEPIDOE reanalysis, especially in western Siberia. Models also reproduced associated heat waves in terms of the shifting in the probability distribution function of near surface temperature. Seven out of eight models used in this study show that the frequency of atmospheric blocking over the Europe will likely decrease in a warmer climate, but slightly increase over the western Siberia. This spatial pattern resembles the blocking in the summer of 2010, indicating the possibility of more frequent occurrences of heat waves in western Siberia. In this talk, we will also

  12. Geomorphological analysis, monitoring and modeling of large rock avalanches in northern Chile (Iquique area) for regional hazard assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yugsi Molina, F. X.; Hermanns, R. L.; Crosta, G. B.; Dehls, J.; Sosio, R.; Sepúlveda, S. A.

    2012-04-01

    mapped characterized by well defined lateral levees and clear internal morphological features (ridges and furrows, hummocks). Rock avalanche run out simulations have been carried out to back analyze the sites using DAN 3D and a 3 m pixel resolution digital elevation model (DEM) obtained from stereoscopic Geoeye-1 images to assess parameters that controlled propagation mechanism and impact area extent of the events. The older lobes were dated by radiocarbon methods. Results indicate ages higher than 40,000 yr BP for the northern site. The second site could only be dated relatively with an underlying terrace that resulted older than the age limit of radiocarbon dating (43.500 yr BP). All the deposits are positioned well above (40-70 m) the present sea level rise, and at the reported uplift rates for the area, they could be associated to events older than some hundreds of thousand years. A more complete record of the failure history of the sites will be obtained when results of cosmogenic nuclides (CN) and luminescence dating will become available later this year. Several other smaller rock avalanches have been mapped in the study area. Satellite-based radar interferometry (InSAR) was performed using ERS-1 and ERS-2 scenes from 1995-2000 as well as ENVISAT ASAR scenes from 2004-2010. Both datasets show only small deformation in the area. This deformation includes sliding of small surficial slope deposits and subsidence apparently due to local groundwater withdrawal. No deformation of bedrock along the escarpment edge is observed. Results show that only major rock avalanches could reach the main access roads to Iquique and currently no large slope segments show signs of large displacement rates. Moreover, there is no strong correlation between M > 8 earthquakes return periods and age of the dated deposits, which implies that large rock avalanches could have been triggered by other factors. Hence, from a hazard and risk perspective, it is unlikely that large rock avalanches

  13. Observations and modeling of northern mid-latitude recurring slope lineae (RSL) suggest recharge by a present-day martian briny aquifer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stillman, David E.; Michaels, Timothy I.; Grimm, Robert E.; Hanley, Jennifer

    2016-02-01

    Recurring slope lineae (RSL) are narrow (0.5-5 m) dark features on Mars that incrementally lengthen down steep slopes, fade in colder seasons, and recur annually. These features have been identified from the northern to southern mid-latitudes. Here, we describe how observations of northern mid-latitude RSL in northern Chryse Planitia and southwestern Acidalia Planitia (CAP) suggest that brines start flowing before northern spring equinox and continue for more than half a Mars-year (490 ± 40 sols, spanning solar longitude 337° ± 11°-224° ± 20°). All CAP RSL are found on the steep slopes of craters and their source zones are at or below the elevation of the surrounding plains. Spacecraft-derived surface temperature observations cannot resolve individual RSL, so thermal modeling was used to determine that CAP RSL have a freezing temperature of 238-252 K, freeze and melt diurnally, and flow only occurs within the top ∼8 cm of the regolith. Furthermore, we calculate that a typical CAP RSL has a water budget of 1.5-5.6 m3/m of headwall. Therefore, such a large water budget makes annual recharge via atmospheric or subsurface diffusion sources unlikely. Alternatively, we hypothesize that the most plausible RSL source is a briny aquifer with a freezing temperature less than or equal to the mean annual CAP surface temperature (220-225 K). The annual cycle is as follows: in late autumn, the shallowest part of the brine feeding the source zone freezes, forming an ice dam. As spring approaches, temperatures rise and the dam is breached. Brine is discharged and the RSL initially lengthens rapidly (>1.86 m/sol), the lengthening rate then slows considerably, to ∼0.25 m/sol. Eventually, the losses equal the discharge rate and the RSL reaches its equilibrium phase. As brine flows in the RSL some of the water is lost to the atmosphere, therefore the freezing temperature of the brine within the RSL is higher (238-252 K) as the brine transitions to a super-eutectic salt

  14. LiDAR-derived spatial models of hydrological and biogeochemical source areas to improve estimates of terrestrial-aquatic mercury export in northern forested landscapes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richardson, M. C.; Mitchell, C. P.; Branfireun, B. A.; Kolka, R. K.; Fortin, M.

    2010-12-01

    Recent research on watershed mercury (Hg) and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) cycling in headwater research catchments in south-central Ontario, northwestern Ontario and northern Minnesota points to the critical role of discrete landscape elements in dictating rainfall-runoff response and the mobilization of DOC, Hg and methyl-mercury (MeHg) to downstream surface-waters. An overview of this research will be presented, emphasising two newly developed techniques used to extract hydrological and biogeochemical sources areas from airborne Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) surveys. First, hydrogeomorphic edge-detection was used to partition the landscape into discrete functional units based on local drainage conditions. From this initial landscape segmentation, forested wetlands and non-wetland saturation prone depressional areas were classified and extracted using classification and regression tree models based on LiDAR-derived geomorphic indices aggregated to the scale of individual landscape elements. Following this procedure, a characteristic morphology analysis was conducted from LiDAR bare-earth returns to quantitatively define the upland-peatland interfaces within all peatlands greater than 0.2 ha. These two terrain analysis techniques produced a number of functionally different landscape element classes that were subsequently used in the south-central Ontario study sites to test statistical models of terrestrial-aquatic fluxes of DOC, total Hg and MeHg over different time-scales. The regression models indicate that functional differences exist among landscape element classes with respect to their solute source-strengths and runoff generating potentials, and showed marked improvements over previous landscape models of hydrological and biogeochemical source areas in northern forested regions. LiDAR remote sensing can therefore be used to refine estimates of biogeochemical transformations and solute transport at the landscape scale, thus improving our

  15. Comparison of Spheroidal Carbonaceous Particle Data with Modelled Atmospheric Black Carbon Concentration and Deposition and Air Mass Sources in Northern Europe, 1850–2010

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meri Ruppel

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Spheroidal carbonaceous particles (SCP are a well-defined fraction of black carbon (BC, produced only by the incomplete combustion of fossil fuels such as coal and oil. Their past concentrations have been studied using environmental archives, but, additionally, historical trends of BC concentration and deposition can be estimated by modelling. These models are based on BC emission inventories, but actual measurements of BC concentration and deposition play an essential role in their evaluation and validation. We use the chemistry transport model OsloCTM2 to model historical time series of BC concentration and deposition from energy and industrial sources and compare these to sedimentary measurements of SCPs obtained from lake sediments in Northern Europe from 1850 to 2010. To determine the origin of SCPs we generated back trajectories of air masses to the study sites. Generally, trends of SCP deposition and modelled results agree reasonably well, showing rapidly increasing values from 1950, to a peak in 1980, and a decrease towards the present. Empirical SCP data show differences in deposition magnitude between the sites that are not captured by the model but which may be explained by different air mass transport patterns. The results highlight the need for numerous observational records to reliably validate model results.

  16. Using dual temperature difference two source energy balance model and MODIS data to estimate surface energy fluxes at regional scales in northern latitudes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guzinski, R.; Anderson, M.; Kustas, W.; Nieto, H.; Sandholt, I.

    2012-04-01

    A Two Source Energy Balance (TSEB) thermal-based modeling scheme has previously been used to successfully estimate surface latent and sensible heat fluxes at regional to continental scales with the help of satellite surface radiometric temperature observations. The Dual Temperature Difference (DTD) model introduced a simple methodology to address the sensitivity of the thermal-based energy balance models to the absolute measurement of land surface temperature (LST), which when derived with the help of satellites can have errors of several degrees. The original DTD model formulation required an early morning LST observation (1 hour after local sunrise) when fluxes were minimal followed by another LST observations later in the morning or afternoon and so was limited in use to data provided by geostationary satellites having high temporal resolution. This, however, made it unsuitable for areas at higher latitudes, such as northern Eurasia and northern North America. In this poster we present a number of modifications to the DTD model which allows it to exploit the day and night LST observations by the MODIS sensor aboard the Terra and Aqua polar orbiting satellites. Firstly, we look at whether taking the first LST observation around the time of Aqua's night overpass, when fluxes are small but not insignificant, would greatly affect the accuracy of the model. Secondly, we consider the issues directly related to using the MODIS sensor to measure the LST. This includes different view zenith angles of the day and night LST observations, the two observations possibly coming from the two different satellites and the accuracy of the instrument itself. We also evaluate two approaches for estimating αPT, the Priestley-Taylor parameter used in the TSEB modeling scheme to estimate heat fluxes of the vegetation canopy, to improve the performance of the model in coniferous and deciduous forests. The first approach estimates αPT based on tree height, while the second uses

  17. Northern Exposure

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Adamo, Silvia

    2008-01-01

    to the theoretical model of multiculturalism developed by Will Kymlicka. The conclusion is provisional and takes into consideration the fact that the citizenship test is a relatively new introduction in Denmark, which makes its impact difficult to measure in empirical terms. There is, however, some evidence...

  18. Ancient DNA from hunter-gatherer and farmer groups from Northern Spain supports a random dispersion model for the Neolithic expansion into Europe.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Montserrat Hervella

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The phenomenon of Neolithisation refers to the transition of prehistoric populations from a hunter-gatherer to an agro-pastoralist lifestyle. Traditionally, the spread of an agro-pastoralist economy into Europe has been framed within a dichotomy based either on an acculturation phenomenon or on a demic diffusion. However, the nature and speed of this transition is a matter of continuing scientific debate in archaeology, anthropology, and human population genetics. In the present study, we have analyzed the mitochondrial DNA diversity in hunter-gatherers and first farmers from Northern Spain, in relation to the debate surrounding the phenomenon of Neolithisation in Europe. METHODOLOGY/SIGNIFICANCE: Analysis of mitochondrial DNA was carried out on 54 individuals from Upper Paleolithic and Early Neolithic, which were recovered from nine archaeological sites from Northern Spain (Basque Country, Navarre and Cantabria. In addition, to take all necessary precautions to avoid contamination, different authentication criteria were applied in this study, including: DNA quantification, cloning, duplication (51% of the samples and replication of the results (43% of the samples by two independent laboratories. Statistical and multivariate analyses of the mitochondrial variability suggest that the genetic influence of Neolithisation did not spread uniformly throughout Europe, producing heterogeneous genetic consequences in different geographical regions, rejecting the traditional models that explain the Neolithisation in Europe. CONCLUSION: The differences detected in the mitochondrial DNA lineages of Neolithic groups studied so far (including these ones of this study suggest different genetic impact of Neolithic in Central Europe, Mediterranean Europe and the Cantabrian fringe. The genetic data obtained in this study provide support for a random dispersion model for Neolithic farmers. This random dispersion had a different

  19. Variation of atmospheric CO, δ13C, and δ18O at high northern latitude during 2004-2009: Observations and model simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Keyhong; Wang, Zhihui; Emmons, Louisa K.; Mak, John E.

    2015-10-01

    Atmospheric CO mixing ratios and stable isotope ratios (δ13C and δ18O) were measured at a high northern latitude site (Westman Islands, Iceland) from January 2004 to March 2010 in order to investigate recent multiyear trends of the sources of atmospheric carbon monoxide in the extratropical Northern Hemisphere. During this period, we observed a decrease of about 2% per year in CO mixing ratios with little significant interannual variability. The seasonal cycles for δ13C and δ18O in CO are similar to that in the CO mixing ratio, and there is a pronounced interannual variation in their seasonal extremes occurring in summer and fall, which is driven by changes in the relative contribution of different sources. Some of the sources of CO are anthropogenic in character (e.g., fossil fuel and biofuel combustion and agricultural waste burning), and some are primarily natural (e.g., oxidation atmospheric methane and other hydrocarbons and wildfires), and distinction among the various major sources can, more or less, be distinguished by the stable isotopic composition of CO. We compare our observations with simulations from a 3-D global chemical transport model (MOZART-4, Model for Ozone and Related Chemical Tracers, version 4). Our results indicate the observed trend of anthropogenic CO emissions is mostly responsible for the observed variation in δ13C and δ18O of CO during 2004-2009. Especially, the δ18O enriched sources such as fossil fuel and biofuel sources are controlling the variation. The modeling results indicate decreasing trends in the fossil fuel and biofuel source contributions at Iceland of -0.61 ± 0.26 ppbv/yr and -0.38 ± 0.10 ppbv/yr, respectively, during the observation period.

  20. Modeling seawater intrusion in overexploited aquifers in the absence of sufficient data: application to the aquifer of Nea Moudania, northern Greece

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siarkos, Ilias; Latinopoulos, Pericles

    2016-08-01

    In many coastal areas, overexploitation of groundwater resources has led both to the quantitative degradation of local aquifers and the deterioration of groundwater quality due to seawater intrusion. To investigate the behavior of coastal aquifers under these conditions, numerical modeling is usually implemented; however, the proper implementation of numerical models requires a large amount of data, which are often not available due to the time-consuming and costly process of obtaining them. In the present study, the investigation of the behavior of coastal aquifers under the lack of adequate data is attempted by developing a methodological framework consisting of a series of numerical simulations: a steady-state, a false-transient and a transient simulation. The sequence and the connection between these simulations constitute the backbone of the whole procedure aimed at adjusting the various model parameters, as well as obtaining the initial conditions for the transient simulation. The validity of the proposed methodology is tested through evaluation of the model calibration procedure and the estimation of the simulation errors (mean error, mean absolute error, root mean square error, mean relative error) using the case of Nea Moudania basin, northern Greece. Furthermore, a sensitivity analysis is performed in order to minimize the error estimates and thus to maximize the reliability of the models. The results of the whole procedure affirm the proper implementation of the developed methodology under specific conditions and assumptions due to the lack of sufficient data, while they give a clear picture of the aquifer's quantitative and qualitative status.

  1. Changes in atmospheric blocking characteristics within Euro-Atlantic region and Northern Hemisphere as a whole in the 21st century from model simulations using RCP anthropogenic scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mokhov, Igor I.; Timazhev, Alexander V.; Lupo, Anthony R.

    2014-11-01

    An analysis of simulations using the IPSL-CM5 climate model of general circulation shows the ability of this model to reproduce the current climate of the main blocking characteristics obtained from reanalysis data, including number of blocking events and their duration, intensity and frequency. Possible changes of blocking characteristics in the Euro-Atlantic region (EA) and for the Northern Hemisphere (NH) as a whole are estimated from model simulations with the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios for the 21st century. Results of the model simulations show a general increase in the blocking frequency for the EA in winter, summer and for the entire year during the 21st century for both analyzed RCP scenarios, while changes of the opposite sign are characteristic for NH as a whole. It is also noted that there is a tendency for an increase in the blocking intensity in the EA during the winter from model simulations with both analyzed RCP scenarios for the 21st century. A significant increase is obtained in the EA for the likelihood of extreme winter with the total blocking duration longer than seven weeks. Also, a similar tendency is characteristic for the EA summer.

  2. Sensitivity Analysis and Investigation of the Behaviour of the UTOPIA Land-Surface Process Model: A Case Study for Vineyards in Northern Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Francone, C.; Cassardo, C.; Richiardone, R.; Confalonieri, R.

    2012-09-01

    We used sensitivity-analysis techniques to investigate the behaviour of the land-surface model UTOPIA while simulating the micrometeorology of a typical northern Italy vineyard ( Vitis vinifera L.) under average climatic conditions. Sensitivity-analysis experiments were performed by sampling the vegetation parameter hyperspace using the Morris method and quantifying the parameter relevance across a wide range of soil conditions. This method was used since it proved its suitability for models with high computational time or with a large number of parameters, in a variety of studies performed on different types of biophysical models. The impact of input variability was estimated on reference model variables selected among energy (e.g. net radiation, sensible and latent heat fluxes) and hydrological (e.g. soil moisture, surface runoff, drainage) budget components. Maximum vegetation cover and maximum leaf area index were ranked as the most relevant parameters, with sensitivity indices exceeding the remaining parameters by about one order of magnitude. Soil variability had a high impact on the relevance of most of the vegetation parameters: coefficients of variation calculated on the sensitivity indices estimated for the different soils often exceeded 100 %. The only exceptions were represented by maximum vegetation cover and maximum leaf area index, which showed a low variability in sensitivity indices while changing soil type, and confirmed their key role in affecting model results.

  3. Modeling seawater intrusion in overexploited aquifers in the absence of sufficient data: application to the aquifer of Nea Moudania, northern Greece

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siarkos, Ilias; Latinopoulos, Pericles

    2016-12-01

    In many coastal areas, overexploitation of groundwater resources has led both to the quantitative degradation of local aquifers and the deterioration of groundwater quality due to seawater intrusion. To investigate the behavior of coastal aquifers under these conditions, numerical modeling is usually implemented; however, the proper implementation of numerical models requires a large amount of data, which are often not available due to the time-consuming and costly process of obtaining them. In the present study, the investigation of the behavior of coastal aquifers under the lack of adequate data is attempted by developing a methodological framework consisting of a series of numerical simulations: a steady-state, a false-transient and a transient simulation. The sequence and the connection between these simulations constitute the backbone of the whole procedure aimed at adjusting the various model parameters, as well as obtaining the initial conditions for the transient simulation. The validity of the proposed methodology is tested through evaluation of the model calibration procedure and the estimation of the simulation errors (mean error, mean absolute error, root mean square error, mean relative error) using the case of Nea Moudania basin, northern Greece. Furthermore, a sensitivity analysis is performed in order to minimize the error estimates and thus to maximize the reliability of the models. The results of the whole procedure affirm the proper implementation of the developed methodology under specific conditions and assumptions due to the lack of sufficient data, while they give a clear picture of the aquifer's quantitative and qualitative status.

  4. The December 26, 2004, off the west coast of northern Sumatra, Indonesia, MW=9.0, earthquake and the critical-point-like model of earthquake preparation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    JIANG Chang-sheng; WU Zhong-liang

    2005-01-01

    Long-term seismic activity prior to the December 26, 2004, off the west coast of northern Sumatra, Indonesia, MW=9.0 earthquake was investigated using the Harvard CMT catalogue. It is observed that before this great earthquake, there exists an accelerating moment release (AMR) process with the temporal scale of a quarter century and the spatial scale of 1 500 km. Within this spatial range, the MW=9.0 event falls into the piece-wise power-law-like frequency-magnitude distribution. Therefore, in the perspective of the critical-point-like model of earthquake preparation, the failure to forecast/predict the approaching and/or the size of this earthquake is not due to the physically intrinsic unpredictability of earthquakes.

  5. A Petrogenetic Model of Basalts from the Northern Central Indian Ridge: 3-11°S

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Dwijesh RAY; Sridhar D.IYER; Ranadip BANERJEE; Saumitra MISRA; M. WIDDOWSON

    2007-01-01

    Mid-Ocean Ridge Basalts (MORB) from the Northern Central Indian Ridge (NCIR) were recovered between latitudes 3° and 11°S and are olivine tholeiite with higher abundances of K and Rb.They are of typical transitional MORB (T-MORB) variety and appear to have been generated from an enriched-mantle peridotite source. The primitive NCIR MORBs having Mg# > 0.68 are the product of partial melting at an estimated pressure of ~ 1 GPa. It is inferred that the magma was subsequently modified at a pressure > 1 GPa by crystal fractionation and spinel was the first mineral to crystallize followed by separation of relatively Fe-rich olivine with subsequent decrease in pressure. During progressive fractionation at lower pressure (between 1-0.5 GPa), the bulk composition of the magma became systematically depleted in MgO, and enriched in ∑FeO, TiO2, P2O5 and Na2O. There was,however, limited gradual depletion in Al2O3 and CaO and concomitant enrichment in K2O. With the progressive fractionation these basalts became gradually enriched in V, Co, Y, Zr and to some extent in Sr, and depleted in Ni and Cr. In addition, the ∑REE of the magma also increased with fractionation,without any change in (La/Yb)n value.

  6. Climatological features of blocking anticyclones: a study of Northern Hemisphere CCM1 model blocking events in present-day and double CO{sub 2} concentration atmospheres

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lupo, A.R. [Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN (United States). Dept. of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences; Oglesby, R.J. [Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN (United States). Dept. of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences; Mokhov, I.I. [Russian Acad. of Sci., Moscow (Russian Federation). Inst. of Atmospheric Phys.

    1997-03-01

    Using output made with the national center for atmospheric research (NCAR) community climate model version 1 (CCM1), the characteristics of blocking events over the Northern Hemisphere in a ten-year present day control simulation with a CO{sub 2} concentration of 330 ppm were compared to those in a previously analyzed observational three-year climatology. The characteristics of blocking events in a double present-day CO{sub 2} concentration simulation were then compared to those in the control simulation in order to evaluate how these characteristics might change in an increased CO{sub 2} atmosphere. The results demonstrated that in the Northern Hemisphere the CCM1 correctly simulated many characteristics of blocking events such as average annual number of occurrences, annual variations is size and intensity, and preferred formation regions. A more detailed analysis (i.e., by region and season) revealed some differences between the CCM1 and observed blocking events for characteristics such as mean frequency of occurrence, intensity, size and duration. In addition, the model failed to capture adequately the occurrence of blocking events over the western Asian continent. A comparison of the double CO{sub 2} concentration run to the control showed that, in general, blocking events were more persistent and weaker, but of similar size in the increased CO{sub 2} atmosphere. Also, some statistically significant regional and seasonally dependent changes were found in the frequency of occurrence, duration, and intensity. Finally, a correlation between block size and intensity, significant at the 99% confidence level, was found in each climatology. This result is similar to a correlation found in the analysis of observations. (orig.). With 9 figs., 5 tabs.

  7. Modeling slope failure by the 3D discrete element method: A case study of the dip slope at the Huafan University campus in northern Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tseng, C. H.; Chan, Y. C.; Jeng, C. J.; Hsieh, Y. C.

    2015-12-01

    Slope failure is a widely observed phenomenon in hill and mountainous areas in Taiwan, which is characterized by high erosion rates (up to 60 mm/yr) due to its climatic and geographical conditions. Slope failure events easily occur after intense rainfall, especially resulting from typhoons and accordingly cause a great loss of human lives and property. At the northern end of the Western Foothill belt in northern Taiwan, Huafan University campus (121.692448˚ E, 24.980724˚ N ) is founded on a dip slope, ~20˚ toward southwest, being composed of early Miocene alternations of sandstone and shale. Data from continuous monitoring over the years by means of inclinometers and groundwater gauges reveal that creep of 6-10 mm of the slope occurred when precipitation exceeded 300 mm during typhoons' striking. In addition, extension cracks on the ground are also found within and on the edge of the campus. Furthermore, potential slip surfaces are detected shown by rock cores to exist 10 and 30 m in depth as well. To understand the kinematic behaviors of the rock slope failure beneath the university campus, a 3D discrete element mothed is applied in this study. Results of the modeling indicate that creeping is the primary behavior pattern when the friction coefficient reduces owing to rise of groundwater during rainstorms. However, rapid slip may take place under influences of earthquake with large magnitude. Suggestions for preventing the slope creep are to construct catchpits to drainage runoff and lower the groundwater table and ground anchors through the slip surfaces to stabilize the slide blocks.

  8. GPS observations of coseismic deformation following the May 20 and 29, 2012, Emilia seismic events (northern Italy: data, analysis and preliminary models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Enrico Serpelloni

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available In May-July 2012, a seismic sequence struck a broad area of the Po Plain Region in northern Italy. The sequence included two Ml >5.5 mainshocks. The first one (Ml 5.9 occurred near the city of Finale Emilia (ca. 30 km west of Ferrara on May 20 at 02:03:53 (UTC, and the second (Ml 5.8 occurred on May 29 at 7:00:03 (UTC, about 12 km southwest of the May 20 mainshock (Figure 1, near the city of Mirandola. The seismic sequence involved an area that extended in an E-W direction for more than 50 km, and included seven Ml ≥5.0 events and more than 2,300 Ml >1.5 events (http://iside.rm.ingv.it. The focal mechanisms of the main events [Pondrelli et al. 2012, Scognamiglio et al. 2012, this volume] consistently showed compressional kinematics with E-W oriented reverse nodal planes. This sector of the Po Plain is known as a region characterized by slow deformation rates due to the northwards motion of the northern Apennines fold-and-thrust belt, which is buried beneath the sedimentary cover of the Po Plain [Picotti and Pazzaglia 2008, Toscani et al. 2009]. Early global positioning system (GPS measurements [Serpelloni et al. 2006] and the most recent updates [Devoti et al. 2011, Bennett et al. 2012] recognized that less than 2 mm/yr of SW-NE shortening are accommodated across this sector of the Po Plain, in agreement with other present-day stress indicators [Montone et al. 2012] and known active faults [Basili et al. 2008]. In the present study, we describe the GPS data used to study the coseismic deformation related to the May 20 and 29 mainshocks, and provide preliminary models of the two seismic sources, as inverted from consensus GPS coseismic deformation fields. […

  9. Digital model of the seabed geomorphology of southern-central Espirito Santo basin and northern Campos basin; Modelo digital da geomorfologia do fundo oceanico do centro-sul da bacia do Espirito Santo e norte da bacia de Campos

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schreiner, Simone; Souza, Mariana Beatriz Ferraz Mendonca de; Migliorelli, Joana Paiva Robalo [Petroleo Brasileiro S. A. (PETROBRAS), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Unidade de Servicos de Exploracao e Producao], Emails: schreiner@petrobras.com.br, mbfms.fototerra@petrobras.com.br, joanamigli.fototerra@petrobras.com.br

    2009-05-15

    That communication brings the result of a bathymetric mosaic of converted in a digital model of the ocean topography, consisting of 17 seismic projects 3D, besides 17 multibeam bathymetry surveys of South-Central Espirito Santo Basin and Northern Campos Basin.

  10. Impacts of climate change on river discharge in the northern Tien Shan: Results from the long-term observations and modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shahgedanova, Maria; Afzal, Muhammad; Usmanova, Zamira; Kapitsa, Vasilii; Mayr, Elisabeth; Hagg, Wilfried; Severskiy, Igor; Zhumabayev, Dauren

    2017-04-01

    The study presents results of investigation of the observed and projected changes in discharge of seven snow- and glacier-nourished rivers of the northern Tien Shan (south-eastern Kazakhstan). The observed trends were assessed using the long-term (40-60 years) homogeneous daily records of discharge from the gauging stations located in the mountains and unaffected by human activities including water abstraction. Positive trends in discharge were registered at most sites between the 1950s and 2010s with the strongest increase in summer and autumn particularly in 2000-2010s in line with the positive temperature trends. The observed increase was most prominent in the catchments with a higher proportion of glacierized area. At the Ulken Almatinka and Kishi Almatinka rivers, where 16% and 12% of the catchment areas are glacierized, positive trends in summer and autumn discharge exceeded 1% per year. The strongest increase was observed in September indicating that melting period extends in the early autumn. In September-November, the number of days with extreme discharge values, defined as daily values exceeding 95th percentile (calculated for each meteorological season), increased at all rivers. Future changes in discharge were modelled using HBV-ETH hydrological model and four climate change scenarios derived using regional climate model PRECIS with 25 km spatial resolution driven by HadGEM GCM for RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 scenarios and HadCM3Q0 and ECHAM5 GCM for A1B scenario. A range of glacier change scenarios was considered. All climate experiments project increase in temperature with the strongest warming projected by the HadGEM-driven simulation for RCP 8.5 scenario and HadCM3Q0-driven simulation for A1B scenario. The projected changes in precipitation varied between models and seasons, however, most experiments did not show significant trends in precipitation within the studied catchments. The exception is a simulation driven by HadGEM GCM for 8.5 RCP scenario which

  11. Spatial distribution of hydrocarbon reservoirs in the West Korea Bay Basin in the northern part of the Yellow Sea, estimated by 3-D gravity forward modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Sungchan; Ryu, In-Chang; Götze, H.-J.; Chae, Y.

    2017-01-01

    Although an amount of hydrocarbon has been discovered in the West Korea Bay Basin (WKBB), located in the North Korean offshore area, geophysical investigations associated with these hydrocarbon reservoirs are not permitted because of the current geopolitical situation. Interpretation of satellite-derived potential field data can be alternatively used to image the 3-D density distribution in the sedimentary basin associated with hydrocarbon deposits. We interpreted the TRIDENT satellite-derived gravity field data to provide detailed insights into the spatial distribution of sedimentary density structures in the WKBB. We used 3-D forward density modelling for the interpretation that incorporated constraints from existing geological and geophysical information. The gravity data interpretation and the 3-D forward modelling showed that there are two modelled areas in the central subbasin that are characterized by very low density structures, with a maximum density of about 2000 kg m-3, indicating some type of hydrocarbon reservoir. One of the anticipated hydrocarbon reservoirs is located in the southern part of the central subbasin with a volume of about 250 km3 at a depth of about 3000 m in the Cretaceous/Jurassic layer. The other hydrocarbon reservoir should exist in the northern part of the central subbasin, with an average volume of about 300 km3 at a depth of about 2500 m.

  12. Mesoscale modeling and satellite observation of transport and mixing of smoke and dust particles over northern sub-Saharan African region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Zhifeng; Wang, Jun; Ichoku, Charles; Hyer, Edward; Zeng, Jing

    2013-11-01

    transport and vertical distribution of smoke and dust aerosols over the northern sub-Saharan African region are simulated in the Weather Research and Forecasting model with Chemistry (WRF-Chem), which uses hourly dynamic smoke emissions from the Fire Locating and Modeling of Burning Emissions database derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) fire products. Model performance for February 2008 is evaluated using MODIS true color images, aerosol optical depth (AOD) measurements from the Aerosol Robotic Network, MODIS AOD retrievals, and the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar data with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) atmospheric backscattering and extinction products. Specification of smoke injection height of 650 m in WRF-Chem yields aerosol vertical profiles that are most consistent with CALIOP observations of aerosol layer height. Between the equator and 10°N, Saharan dust is often mixed with smoke near the surface, and their transport patterns manifest the interplay of trade winds, subtropical highs, precipitation associated with the Intertropical Convergence Zone, and the high mountains located near the Great Rift Valley region. At the 700 hPa level and above, smoke layers spread farther to the north and south and are often above the dust layers over the Sahel region. In some cases, transported smoke can also be mixed with dust over the Saharan region. Statistically, 5% of the CALIOP valid measurements in February 2007-2011 show aerosol layers either above or between the clouds, reinforcing the importance of the aerosol vertical distribution for quantifying aerosol impact on climate in the Sahel region.

  13. Application of MM5-CAMx-PSAT Modeling Approach for Investigating Emission Source Contribution to Atmospheric SO2 Pollution in Tangshan, Northern China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li Li

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The MM5-CMAx-PSAT modeling approach was presented to identify the variation of emission contribution from each modeling grid to regional and urban air quality per unit emission rate change. The method was applied to a case study in Tangshan Municipality, a typical industrial region in northern China. The variation of emission contribution to the monthly atmospheric SO2 concentrations in Tangshan from each modeling grid of 9 × 9 km per 1000 t/yr of emission rate change was simulated for four representative months in 2006. It was found that the northwestern part of Tangshan region had the maximum contribution variation ratio (i.e., greater than 0.36% to regional air quality, while the lowest contribution variation ratio (i.e., less than 0.3% occurred in the coastal areas. Principal component analysis (PCA, canonical correlation analysis (CCA, and Pearson correlation analysis indicated that there was an obvious negative correlation between the grid-based variation of emission contribution to regional air quality and planetary boundary layer height (PBLH as well as wind speed, while terrain data presented insignificant impacts on emission contribution variation. The proposed method was also applied to analyze the variation of emission contribution to the urban air quality of Tangshan (i.e., a smaller scale.

  14. Application of a bioeconomic model for supporting the management process of the small pelagic fishery in the Veneto Region, northern Adriatic Sea, Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Silvia Silvestri

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available We explore the sustainability of the small pelagics fishery in the northern Adriatic sea, northeastern Italy, by means of a bioeconomic simulation model. This model reproduces the biological and economic conditions in which the fisheries occur. Starting from an initial condition (2004, the simulation model incorporates the biological and economic processes of the resources and the fishing fleet and computes the most probable future trajectory of the system under different management conditions. We analysed the projection of selected indicators (biomass, recruitment, catches, profits under four different management scenarios based on effort control, and we assessed the performance of these management measures against the current situation. The four scenarios were: i increase in fuel price, ii reduction in fuel price, iii limiting the number of days at sea, and iv extending the fishing period. Each management event was introduced in the third year of the simulation. For each scenario a stochastic simulation was carried out. Our results show that the impact of each management measure tested was not homogeneous across the fleet. In particular, comparatively smaller vessels generally display narrower profit margins and tend to be more sensitive to negative shocks, reinforcing the idea that management measures should be calibrated by stratifying the fleet before implementation.

  15. Using Coupled Models to Study the Effects of River Discharge on Biogeochemical Cycling and Hypoxia in the Northern Gulf of Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Penta, Bradley; Ko, D.; Gould, Richard W.; Arnone, Robert A.; Greene, R.; Lehrter, J.; Hagy, James; Schaeffer, B.; Murrell, M.; Kurtz, J.; Herchenroder, B.; Green, R.; Eldridge, P.

    2009-01-01

    We describe emerging capabilities to understand physical processes and biogeoehemical cycles in coastal waters through the use of satellites, numerical models, and ship observations. Emerging capabilities provide significantly improved ability to model ecological systems and the impact of environmental management actions on them. The complex interaction of physical and biogeoehemical processes responsible for hypoxic events requires an integrated approach to research, monitoring, and modeling in order to fully define the processes leading to hypoxia. Our efforts characterizes the carbon cycle associated with river plumes and the export of organic matter and nutrients form coastal Louisiana wetlands and embayments in a spatially and temporally intensive manner previously not possible. Riverine nutrients clearly affect ecosystems in the northern Gulf of Mexico as evidenced in the occurrence of regional hypoxia events. Less known and largely unqualified is the export of organic matter and nutrients from the large areas of disappearing coastal wetlands and large embayments adjacent to the Louisiana Continental Shelf. This project provides new methods to track the river plume along the shelf and to estimate the rate of export of suspended inorganic and organic paniculate matter and dissolved organic matter form coastal habitats of south Louisiana.

  16. Calibration and validation of a one-dimensional complex marine biogeochemical flux model in different areas of the northern Adriatic shelf

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Vichi

    Full Text Available In this paper we show results from numerical simulations carried out with a complex biogeochemical fluxes model coupled with a one-dimensional high-resolution hydrodynamical model and implemented at three different locations of the northern Adriatic shelf. One location is directly affected by the Po River influence, one has more open-sea characteristics and one is located in the Gulf of Trieste with an intermediate behavior; emphasis is put on the comparison with observations and on the functioning of the northern Adriatic ecosystem in the three areas. The work has been performed in a climatological context and has to be considered as preliminary to the development of three-dimensional numerical simulations. Biogeochemical model parameterizations have been ameliorated with a detailed description of bacterial substrate utilization associated with the quality of the dissolved organic matter (DOM, in order to improve the models capability in capturing the observed DOM dynamics in the basin. The coupled model has been calibrated and validated at the three locations by means of climatological data sets. Results show satisfactory model behavior in simulating local seasonal dynamics in the limit of the available boundary conditions and the one-dimensional implementation. Comparisons with available measurements of primary and bacterial production and bacterial abundances have been performed in all locations. Model simulated rates and bacterial dynamics are in the same order of magnitude of observations and show a qualitatively correct time evolution. The importance of temperature as a factor controlling bacteria efficiency is investigated with sensitivity experiments on the model parameterizations.

    The different model behavior and pelagic ecosystem structure developed by the model at the three locations can be attributed to the local hydrodynamical features and interactions with external inputs of nutrients. The onset

  17. Lumped surface and sub- surface runoff for erosion modeling within a small hilly watershed in northern Vietnam

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bui, Y.T.; Orange, D.; Visser, S.M.; Hoanh, C.T.; Laissus, M.; Poortinga, A.; Tran, D.T.; Stroosnijder, L.

    2014-01-01

    Developing models to predict on-site soil erosion and off-site sediment transport at the agricultural watershed scale represent an on-going challenge in research today. This study attempts to simulate the daily discharge and sediment loss using a distributed model that combines surface and sub-surfa

  18. Composition and Dynamics of Migratory and Resident Avian Population in Wintering Wetlands from Northern India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kaushalendra Kumar JHA

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Twelve wetlands occurring in four different ecozones in Uttar Pradesh (UP, India, were selected for studying the winter composition and dynamics of avian populations. Wetland information was collected from office records of the UP Forest department. Bird populations were estimated by transect method and block-in-flock-in-sector method for woodland and aquatic birds, respectively. Across the twelve selected wetlands a total of 486,182 individuals belonging to 161 species of birds on 15,592 ha were recorded during the winter of 2010-11. The data were analyzed to assess the relationship between wetland characteristics and avian populations. Aquatic vegetation, surrounding vegetation, water availability and climate were found as important factors related to avian populations. January was found to be the peak of bird assemblage, while winter times before and after January were the waxing and waning period, respectively. Species richness and species diversity of aquatic birds varied between 18-58 and 1.90-3.20, respectively, and of all bird species between 23-109, and 1.73-3.81, respectively. The density of aquatic birds ranged between 17-384 ha-1. The most common migratory birds in wetlands were Northern Pintail, Common Teal and Greylag Goose. Common resident birds included Asian Openbill, Darter, Little Egret, Common Coot, Little Cormorant, Grey Heron, Purple Heron, Indian Pond Heron, Common Moorhen, Purple Swamphen, Cattle Egret, Indian Sarus Crane and White-throated Kingfisher. For improved conservation of aquatic avian fauna, management prescriptions are suggested for wetlands under current management which could also be extended to other wetlands, whereas conservation of avian fauna to be the emphasis.

  19. Construction, calibration, and validation of the RBM10 water temperature model for the Trinity River, northern California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Edward C.; Perry, Russell W.; Risley, John C.; Som, Nicholas A.; Hetrick, Nicholas J.

    2016-03-31

    We constructed a one-dimensional daily averaged water-temperature model to simulate Trinity River temperatures for 1980–2013. The purpose of this model is to assess effects of water-management actions on water temperature and to provide water temperature inputs for a salmon population dynamics model. Simulated meteorological data, observed streamflow data, and observed water temperatures were used as model inputs to simulate a continuous 34-year time series of historical daily mean water temperature at eight locations along 112.2 river miles from Lewiston Dam near Weaverville, California, downstream to the Klamath River confluence. To demonstrate the utility of the model to inform management actions, we simulated three management alternatives to assess the effects of bypass flow augmentation in a drought year, 1994, and compared those results to the simulated historical baseline, referred to as the “No Action” alternative scenario. Augmentation flows from the Lewiston Dam bypass consist of temperature-controlled releases capable of cooling downstream water temperatures in hot times of the year, which can reduce the probability of disease outbreaks in fish populations. Outputs from the Trinity River water-temperature model were then used as inputs to an existing water-temperature model of the Klamath River to evaluate the effect of augmentation flow releases on water temperatures in the lower Klamath River. 

  20. Simulating anchovy's full life cycle in the northern Aegean Sea (eastern Mediterranean): A coupled hydro-biogeochemical-IBM model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Politikos, D.; Somarakis, S.; Tsiaras, K. P.; Giannoulaki, M.; Petihakis, G.; Machias, A.; Triantafyllou, G.

    2015-11-01

    A 3-D full life cycle population model for the North Aegean Sea (NAS) anchovy stock is presented. The model is two-way coupled with a hydrodynamic-biogeochemical model (POM-ERSEM). The anchovy life span is divided into seven life stages/age classes. Embryos and early larvae are passive particles, but subsequent stages exhibit active horizontal movements based on specific rules. A bioenergetics model simulates the growth in both the larval and juvenile/adult stages, while the microzooplankton and mesozooplankton fields of the biogeochemical model provide the food for fish consumption. The super-individual approach is adopted for the representation of the anchovy population. A dynamic egg production module, with an energy allocation algorithm, is embedded in the bioenergetics equation and produces eggs based on a new conceptual model for anchovy vitellogenesis. A model simulation for the period 2003-2006 with realistic initial conditions reproduced well the magnitude of population biomass and daily egg production estimated from acoustic and daily egg production method (DEPM) surveys, carried out in the NAS during June 2003-2006. Model simulated adult and egg habitats were also in good agreement with observed spatial distributions of acoustic biomass and egg abundance in June. Sensitivity simulations were performed to investigate the effect of different formulations adopted for key processes, such as reproduction and movement. The effect of the anchovy population on plankton dynamics was also investigated, by comparing simulations adopting a two-way or a one-way coupling of the fish with the biogeochemical model.

  1. Flash Flood Prediction by Coupling KINEROS2 and HEC-RAS Models for Tropical Regions of Northern Vietnam

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Nguyen, Hong; Degener, Jan; Kappas, Martin

    2015-01-01

    .... As the prediction of potential flash floods represents one crucial element in this circumstance, we will present an approach that combines the two models KINEROS2 and HEC-RAS in order to accurately...

  2. Evaluation of CMIP5 models over the northern North Atlantic in the context of forthcoming paleoclimatic reconstructions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pyrina, Maria; Wagner, Sebastian; Zorita, Eduardo

    2017-02-01

    We evaluated 11 coupled climate model simulations regarding the spatial structures of sea-surface temperature (SST) variability in the North Atlantic, during the second half of the twentieth century. The subset of models includes CCSM4, CSIRO, CanESM and MPI-ESM, participating in the fifth phase of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project. The evaluation was performed to determine the potential of these models to be used at a later stage as test beds for the evaluation of climate field reconstruction methods that will use the extremely long-lived bivalve mollusk Arctica islandica, an outstanding paleoclimate archive for the boreal and temperate North Atlantic (Schöne, Glob Planet Change 111:199-225, 2013). Several validation metrics such as the mean bias, variance, spatial and temporal co-variability and trends of the North Atlantic summer SSTs showed that some of the models can be used to test paleoclimatic reconstructions. However, most models showed shortcomings in simulating the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Concerning the co-variability of summer SSTs between proxy sites and the whole North Atlantic SST field, we found that these proxy locations contain a SST signal that might represent a (basin-wide) signal for the north-eastern North Atlantic basin.

  3. Investigation of climate change impact on water resources for an Alpine basin in northern Italy: implications for evapotranspiration modeling complexity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ravazzani, Giovanni; Ghilardi, Matteo; Mendlik, Thomas; Gobiet, Andreas; Corbari, Chiara; Mancini, Marco

    2014-01-01

    Assessing the future effects of climate change on water availability requires an understanding of how precipitation and evapotranspiration rates will respond to changes in atmospheric forcing. Use of simplified hydrological models is required because of lack of meteorological forcings with the high space and time resolutions required to model hydrological processes in mountains river basins, and the necessity of reducing the computational costs. The main objective of this study was to quantify the differences between a simplified hydrological model, which uses only precipitation and temperature to compute the hydrological balance when simulating the impact of climate change, and an enhanced version of the model, which solves the energy balance to compute the actual evapotranspiration. For the meteorological forcing of future scenario, at-site bias-corrected time series based on two regional climate models were used. A quantile-based error-correction approach was used to downscale the regional climate model simulations to a point scale and to reduce its error characteristics. The study shows that a simple temperature-based approach for computing the evapotranspiration is sufficiently accurate for performing hydrological impact investigations of climate change for the Alpine river basin which was studied.

  4. Using a coupled groundwater/surfacewater model to predict climate-change impacts to lakes in the Trout Lake watershed, Northern Wisconsin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walker, John F.; Hunt, Randall J.; Markstrom, Steven L.; Hay, Lauren E.; Doherty, John

    2009-01-01

    A major focus of the U.S. Geological Survey’s Trout Lake Water, Energy, and Biogeochemical Budgets (WEBB) project is the development of a watershed model to allow predictions of hydrologic response to future conditions including land-use and climate change. The coupled groundwater/surface-water model GSFLOW was chosen for this purpose because it could easily incorporate an existing groundwater flow model and it provides for simulation of surface-water processes. The Trout Lake watershed in northern Wisconsin is underlain by a highly conductive outwash sand aquifer. In this area, streamflow is dominated by groundwater contributions; however, surface runoff occurs during intense rainfall periods and spring snowmelt. Surface runoff also occurs locally near stream/lake areas where the unsaturated zone is thin. A diverse data set, collected from 1992 to 2007 for the Trout Lake WEBB project and the co-located and NSF-funded North Temperate Lakes LTER project, includes snowpack, solar radiation, potential evapotranspiration, lake levels, groundwater levels, and streamflow. The timeseries processing software TSPROC (Doherty 2003) was used to distill the large time series data set to a smaller set of observations and summary statistics that captured the salient hydrologic information. The timeseries processing reduced hundreds of thousands of observations to less than 5,000. Model calibration included specific predictions for several lakes in the study area using the PEST parameter estimation suite of software (Doherty 2007). The calibrated model was used to simulate the hydrologic response in the study lakes to a variety of climate change scenarios culled from the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Solomon et al. 2007). Results from the simulations indicate climate change could result in substantial changes to the lake levels and components of the hydrologic budget of a seepage lake in the flow system. For a drainage lake

  5. A hydrological-economic model for sustainable groundwater use in sparse-data drylands: Application to the Amtoudi Oasis in southern Morocco, northern Sahara.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alcalá, Francisco J; Martínez-Valderrama, Jaime; Robles-Marín, Pedro; Guerrera, Francesco; Martín-Martín, Manuel; Raffaelli, Giuliana; de León, Julián Tejera; Asebriy, Lahcen

    2015-12-15

    A hydrological-economic model is introduced to describe the dynamics of groundwater-dependent economics (agriculture and tourism) for sustainable use in sparse-data drylands. The Amtoudi Oasis, a remote area in southern Morocco, in the northern Sahara attractive for tourism and with evidence of groundwater degradation, was chosen to show the model operation. Governing system variables were identified and put into action through System Dynamics (SD) modeling causal diagrams to program basic formulations into a model having two modules coupled by the nexus 'pumping': (1) the hydrological module represents the net groundwater balance (G) dynamics; and (2) the economic module reproduces the variation in the consumers of water, both the population and tourists. The model was operated under similar influx of tourists and different scenarios of water availability, such as the wet 2009-2010 and the average 2010-2011 hydrological years. The rise in international tourism is identified as the main driving force reducing emigration and introducing new social habits in the population, in particular concerning water consumption. Urban water allotment (PU) was doubled for less than a 100-inhabitant net increase in recent decades. The water allocation for agriculture (PI), the largest consumer of water, had remained constant for decades. Despite that the 2-year monitoring period is not long enough to draw long-term conclusions, groundwater imbalance was reflected by net aquifer recharge (R) less than PI+PU (Gtechnology actions are tentatively proposed to mitigate groundwater degradation, such as: wastewater capture, treatment, and reuse for irrigation; storm-water harvesting for irrigation; and active maintenance of the irrigation system to improve its efficiency.

  6. A Semi-Analytic Model for Estimating Total Suspended Sediment Concentration in Turbid Coastal Waters of Northern Western Australia Using MODIS-Aqua 250 m Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Passang Dorji

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Knowledge of the concentration of total suspended sediment (TSS in coastal waters is of significance to marine environmental monitoring agencies to determine the turbidity of water that serve as a proxy to estimate the availability of light at depth for benthic habitats. TSS models applicable to data collected by satellite sensors can be used to determine TSS with reasonable accuracy and of adequate spatial and temporal resolution to be of use for coastal water quality monitoring. Thus, a study is presented here where we develop a semi-analytic sediment model (SASM applicable to any sensor with red and near infrared (NIR bands. The calibration and validation of the SASM using bootstrap and cross-validation methods showed that the SASM applied to Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS-Aqua band 1 data retrieved TSS with a root mean square error (RMSE and mean averaged relative error (MARE of 5.75 mg/L and 33.33% respectively. The application of the SASM over our study region using MODIS-Aqua band 1 data showed that the SASM can be used to monitor the on-going, post and pre-dredging activities and identify daily TSS anomalies that are caused by natural and anthropogenic processes in coastal waters of northern Western Australia.

  7. Establishment of water source discrimination model in coal mine by using hydrogeochemistry and statistical analysis: a case study from Renlou Coal Mine in northern Anhui Province, China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SUN Lin-hua; GUI He-rong

    2012-01-01

    The demand for energy consumption promotes to find more coal in deep underground up to 1000 m and brings more serious situation of water disaster.As one of the major methods for water disaster control,hydrogeochemistry attracts a series of studies related to water source discrimination.In this paper,a simple method for constructing the water source discrimination model based on major ions and multivariate statistical analysis was reported using the following procedures:① collection of data and interpretation,② analysis of controlling factors based on the chemical composition of groundwater,③ "pure" sample chosen,and ④ discrimination model establishment.After the processes,two functions and a diagram were established for three aquifers (the Quaternary,Coal bearing,and Taiyuan Fm.) from the Renlou Coal Mine in northern Anhui Province,China.The method can be applied in almost all coal mines and can be used for evaluating the contribution ratios if the water is collected from a mixing source.

  8. Food-Chain Model of Grassland Degradation and Its Restoration Process in Northern Tibet Plateau: A Case Study in Nierong County

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHOU Wei; ZENG Yunying; LIU Shuzhen

    2006-01-01

    Based on the model of grassland climate ecological productivity, the process of grassland degradation and its restoration mechanism in northern Tibetan Plateau were discussed by the model of food-chain in which the environmental and human factors were corrected. The results of case study in Nierong County showed that:① the climate trend of becoming warmer, more droughts and gales were conflicted with the restoration of grassland degradation, even under level of perfect management the climate ecological productivity was declined from 89.3 kg/m2 of 1983 to 71.8 kg/m2 of 2003; ② from 1983 to 2003, the population increased fast, while the variation of livestock on hand was little, and the cost of its maintaining is rapid grassland degradation; ③ on the present condition of overgrazing, the livestock on hand can be maintained on the level of theoretical carrying capacity in 2033 by applying the mechanism of food-chain in grassland ecological system controlled with expected coefficients, so that to realize the policy of determining the quantity of livestock according to grass growth.

  9. A 3-D velocity model for earthquake location from combined geological and geophysical data: a case study from the TABOO near fault observatory (Northern Apennines, Italy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Latorre, Diana; Lupattelli, Andrea; Mirabella, Francesco; Trippetta, Fabio; Valoroso, Luisa; Lomax, Anthony; Di Stefano, Raffaele; Collettini, Cristiano; Chiaraluce, Lauro

    2014-05-01

    Accurate hypocenter location at the crustal scale strongly depends on our knowledge of the 3D velocity structure. The integration of geological and geophysical data, when available, should contribute to a reliable seismic velocity model in order to guarantee high quality earthquake locations as well as their consistency with the geological structure. Here we present a 3D, P- and S-wave velocity model of the Upper Tiber valley region (Northern Apennines) retrieved by combining an extremely robust dataset of surface and sub-surface geological data (seismic reflection profiles and boreholes), in situ and laboratory velocity measurements, and earthquake data. The study area is a portion of the Apennine belt undergoing active extension where a set of high-angle normal faults is detached on the Altotiberina low-angle normal fault (ATF). From 2010, this area hosts a scientific infrastructure (the Alto Tiberina Near Fault Observatory, TABOO; http://taboo.rm.ingv.it/), consisting of a dense array of multi-sensor stations, devoted to studying the earthquakes preparatory phase and the deformation processes along the ATF fault system. The proposed 3D velocity model is a layered model in which irregular shaped surfaces limit the boundaries between main lithological units. The model has been constructed by interpolating depth converted seismic horizons interpreted along 40 seismic reflection profiles (down to 4s two way travel times) that have been calibrated with 6 deep boreholes (down to 5 km depth) and constrained by detailed geological maps and structural surveys data. The layers of the model are characterized by similar rock types and seismic velocity properties. The P- and S-waves velocities for each layer have been derived from velocity measurements coming from both boreholes (sonic logs) and laboratory, where measurements have been performed on analogue natural samples increasing confining pressure in order to simulate crustal conditions. In order to test the 3D velocity

  10. Marine radionuclide transport in the northern North Atlantic estimated with an eddy-permitting ocean model - Marine radionuclide transport in the Northern North Atlantic estimated with an Eddy-resolving ocean model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Simonsen, Magne [Norwegian Meteorological institute, P.O. Box 43 Blindern, N-0313 Oslo (Norway); Norwegian University of Life Sciences, P.O. Box 5003, N-1432 Aas (Norway); Isachsen, Paal E.; Saetra, Oeyvind; Klein, Heiko; Bartnicki, Jerzy [Norwegian Meteorological institute, P.O. Box 43 Blindern, N-0313 Oslo (Norway); Salbu, Brit; Lind, Ole C. [Norwegian University of Life Sciences, P.O. Box 5003, N-1432 Aas (Norway)

    2014-07-01

    As a part of the Norwegian Centre for Environmental Radioactivity (CERAD), we have studied transport of radionuclides in the Nordic Seas using an eddy-resolving ocean model. Transport and dispersion is estimated by both Lagrangian (particle) and Eulerian (tracer) methods using currents generated by the Regional Ocean Model System (ROMS) at 4 km horizontal resolution. This relatively high resolution gives a more accurate description of the impact of macro-turbulent advection on transport paths and transport times than achieved in previous studies. The experiments cover historical discharges from the Sellafield reprocessing plant as well as hypothetical accident scenarios from power plants in Great Britain. For the historical Sellafield discharges, model calculations are compared to isotope concentrations observed along the Norwegian Coast and in the Barents Sea. For the accident scenarios, the likely impact on the Norwegian coastal zone is studied considering three different sources for the ocean: direct local discharge, far-field deposition from the atmosphere, and discharge via Norwegian rivers (via atmospheric deposition over land). (authors)

  11. Analysis of model sensitivity and predictive uncertainty of capture zones in the Espanola Basin regional aquifer, Northern New Mexico

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vesselinov, V. V. (Velimir V.); Keating, E. H. (Elizabeth H.); Zyvoloski, G. A. (George Anthony)

    2002-01-01

    Predictions and their uncertainty are key aspects of any modeling effort. The prediction uncertainty can be significant when the predictions depend on uncertain system parameters. We analyze prediction uncertainties through constrained nonlinear second-order optimization of an inverse model. The optimized objective function is the weighted squared-difference between observed and simulated system quantities (flux and time-dependent head data). The constraints are defined by the maximization/minimization of the prediction within a given objective-function range. The method is applied in capture-zone analyses of groundwater-supply systems using a three-dimensional numerical model of the Espanola Basin aquifer. We use the finite-element simulator FEHM coupled with parameter-estimation/predictive-analysis code PEST. The model is run in parallel on a multi-processor supercomputer. We estimate sensitivity and uncertainty of model predictions such as capture-zone identification and travel times. While the methodology is extremely powerful, it is numerically intensive.

  12. Diffusivity Models and Greenhouse Gases Fluxes from a Forest, Pasture, Grassland and Corn Field in Northern Hokkaido, Japan

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    N.V.NKONGOLO; R.HATANO; V.KAKEMBO

    2010-01-01

    Information on the most influential factors determining gas flux from soils is needed in predictive models for greenhouse gases emissions.We conducted an intensive soil and air sampling along a 2 000 m transect extending from a forest,pasture,grassland and corn field in Shizunai,Hokkaido (Japan),measured CO2,CH4,N2O and NO fluxes and calculated soil bulk density (ρb),air-filled porosity (fa) and total porosity (φ).Using diffusivity models based on either fa alone or on a combination of fa and φ,we predicted two pore space indices:the relative gas diffusion coefficient (Ds/Do) and the pore tortuosity factor (τ).The relationships between pore space indices (Dg/Do and τ) and CO2,CH4,N2O and NO fluxes were also studied.Results showed that the grassland had the highest ρb while fa and φ were the highest in the forest.CO2,CH4,N2O and NO fluxes were the highest in the grassland while N2O dominated in the corn field.Few correlations existed between fa,φ,ρb and gases fluxes while all models predicted that Ds/Do and τ significantly correlated with CO2 and CH4 with correlation coefficient (τ) ranging from 0.20 to 0.80.Overall,diffusivity models based on fa alone gave higher Ds/Do,lower τ and higher R2 and better explained the relationship between pore space indices (Ds/Do and τ) and gases fluxes.Inclusion of Ds/Do and τ in predictive models will improve our understanding of the dynamics of greenhouse gas fluxes from soils.Ds/Do and τ can be easily obtained by measurements of soil air and water and existing diffusivity models.

  13. Long-term variability of UV irradiance over Northern Eurasia according to satellite measurements, ERA-INTERIM dataset and INM-RSHU chemical climate model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chubarova, Nataly; Pastukhova, Anna; Zhdanova, Ekaterina; Khlestova, Julia; Poliukhov, Alexei; Smyshlyaev, Sergei; Galin, Vener

    2017-04-01

    We present the results of long-term erythemal UV irradiance (ERY) changes over the territory of Northern Eurasia according to the ERA-INTERIM reanalysis dataset, INM-RSHU chemical climate model (CCM), and TOMS and OMI satellite data with the correction on absorbing aerosol based on the new Macv2 climatology updated from Kinne et al. (2013) over the 1979-2015 period. We show the existence of the pronounced positive ERY trend due to ozone in spring and summer over Europe and over the central areas of Siberia (up 3% over the decade). The changes in cloud cover provide even more significant ERY increase (up to 6-8% per decade). However, over Arctic region there is a pronounced negative ERY trend probably due to the effects of melting ice on global circulation processes. The combination of ozone and cloud effects provides the enhanced increase of the overall ERY trend: up to 6-9% in spring and summer over Eastern Europe, some regions of Siberia and the Far East. In addition, based on the method described in (Chubarova, Zhdanova, 2013) we estimated changes in UV resources over Northern Eurasia since 1979. We show that for the first skin type there is a significant geographical shift of UV categories: the increase in the UV optimum area in winter, where the vitamin D generation is possible without risk of getting sunburn, and its reducing in other months due to decrease in ozone and clouds. We also analyze the long-term UV changes simulated according to different scenarios using the INM-RSHU CCM. There is a general agreement between CCM and observational datasets, however, ERY trends due to cloudiness do not correspond sometimes in space and are smaller. We show that the positive ERY trend due to ozone is determined by the anthropogenic emissions of halogens. The variations in natural factors (solar activity and ocean surface temperature, stratospheric aerosol) only provide the increase in ERY dispersion. References: Kinne, S., O'Donnel D., Stier P., et al., J. Adv. Model

  14. Advancing the climate data driven crop-modeling studies in the dry areas of Northern Syria and Lebanon: An important first step for assessing impact of future climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dixit, Prakash N., E-mail: p.dixit@cgiar.org; Telleria, Roberto

    2015-04-01

    Inter-annual and seasonal variability in climatic parameters, most importantly rainfall, have potential to cause climate-induced risk in long-term crop production. Short-term field studies do not capture the full nature of such risk and the extent to which modifications to crop, soil and water management recommendations may be made to mitigate the extent of such risk. Crop modeling studies driven by long-term daily weather data can predict the impact of climate-induced risk on crop growth and yield however, the availability of long-term daily weather data can present serious constraints to the use of crop models. To tackle this constraint, two weather generators namely, LARS-WG and MarkSim, were evaluated in order to assess their capabilities of reproducing frequency distributions, means, variances, dry spell and wet chains of observed daily precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature, and solar radiation for the eight locations across cropping areas of Northern Syria and Lebanon. Further, the application of generated long-term daily weather data, with both weather generators, in simulating barley growth and yield was also evaluated. We found that overall LARS-WG performed better than MarkSim in generating daily weather parameters and in 50 years continuous simulation of barley growth and yield. Our findings suggest that LARS-WG does not necessarily require long-term e.g., > 30 years observed weather data for calibration as generated results proved to be satisfactory with > 10 years of observed data except in area with higher altitude. Evaluating these weather generators and the ability of generated weather data to perform long-term simulation of crop growth and yield is an important first step to assess the impact of future climate on yields, and to identify promising technologies to make agricultural systems more resilient in the given region. - Highlights: • LARS-WG performed better than MarkSim in generating daily weather parameters. • LARS-WG can serve

  15. Modelling Effects of Cover Material and Cover Depth on Hydrological Regime and Salt Redistribution in Reclaimed Oil Sand Landscapes in Northern Alberta

    Science.gov (United States)

    Welegedara, N.; Grant, R. F.; Quideau, S.; Lloret, E.

    2014-12-01

    Large-Scale surface mining is continuing in the Athabasca oil sands region in northern Alberta, Canada, causing significant ecosystem disturbances and changes in hydrology. Reclamation efforts in this region require understanding processes that control water, nutrient and salt fluxes through reclaimed landscapes which is critical to restoring their productivity. These processes were tested in a comprehensive mathematical model, ecosys, which was used to determine the effect of different cover thicknesses on water balance, water buffering capacity, salinity and the productivity in the South Bison Hills reclamation site of Syncrude Canada (SCL). This site was constructed in 1999 by capping peat mineral mix and secondary (glacial till) soil over saline sodic overburden. The site was constructed with three different soil cover thicknesses: 35 cm (thin), 50 cm (intermediate) and 100 cm (thick) along a 20% north facing slope. Model outputs were validated with field measured volumetric water content, runoff, snow data, electrical conductivity (EC) and plant productivity data recorded from 1999 to 2013. Model and field results show differences in horizontal and vertical water transport among the three reclaimed prototype covers. Lower water retention capacity in the 35 cm cover compared to the 50 cm and 100 cm covers caused greater soil moisture variation so that permanent wilting point was reached during dry years, decreasing plant growth due to water stress. In addition, the modeled and field-measured EC values indicated some upward salt movement from overburden to cover material over the time. This movement caused higher EC values (6 - 8 dS m-1) to be reached in the shallow rooting zone of the 35 cm and 50 cm covers than of the 100 cm cover several years after the covers were established. The determination of cost effective but ecologically sustainable cover depth is a challenge and will be a focus in future simulations.

  16. Physical analog (centrifuge) model investigation of contrasting structural styles in the Salt Range and Potwar Plateau, northern Pakistan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faisal, Shah; Dixon, John M.

    2015-08-01

    We use scaled physical analog (centrifuge) modeling to investigate along- and across-strike structural variations in the Salt Range and Potwar Plateau of the Himalayan foreland fold-thrust belt of Pakistan. The models, composed of interlayered plasticine and silicone putty laminae, comprise four mechanical units representing the Neoproterozoic Salt Range Formation (basal detachment), Cambrian-Eocene carapace sequence, and Rawalpindi and Siwalik Groups (Neogene molasse), on a rigid base representing the Indian craton. Pre-cut ramps simulate basement faults with various structural geometries. A pre-existing north-dipping basement normal fault under the model foreland induces a frontal ramp and a prominent fault-bend-fold culmination, simulating the Salt Range. The ramp localizes displacement on a frontal thrust that occurs out-of-sequence with respect to other foreland folds and thrusts. With a frontal basement fault terminating to the east against a right-stepping, east-dipping lateral ramp, deformation propagates further south in the east; strata to the east of the lateral ramp are telescoped in ENE-trending detachment folds, fault-propagation folds and pop-up structures above a thick basal detachment (Salt Range Formation), in contrast to translated but less-deformed strata with E-W-trending Salt-Range structures to the west. The models are consistent with Salt Range-Potwar Plateau structural style contrasts being due to basement fault geometry and variation in detachment thickness.

  17. Mechanisms of shrub encroachment into Northern Chihuahuan Desert grasslands and impacts of climate change investigated using a cellular automata model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caracciolo, Domenico; Istanbulluoglu, Erkan; Noto, Leonardo Valerio; Collins, Scott L.

    2016-05-01

    Arid and semiarid grasslands of southwestern North America have changed dramatically over the last 150 years as a result of woody plant encroachment. Overgrazing, reduced fire frequency, and climate change are known drivers of woody plant encroachment into grasslands. In this study, relatively simple algorithms for encroachment factors (i.e., grazing, grassland fires, and seed dispersal by grazers) are proposed and implemented in the ecohydrological Cellular-Automata Tree Grass Shrub Simulator (CATGraSS). CATGraSS is used in a 7.3 km2 rectangular domain located in central New Mexico along a zone of grassland to shrubland transition, where shrub encroachment is currently active. CATGraSS is calibrated and used to investigate the relative contributions of grazing, fire frequency, seed dispersal by herbivores and climate change on shrub abundance over a 150-year period of historical shrub encroachment. The impact of future climate change is examined using a model output that realistically represents current vegetation cover as initial condition, in a series of stochastic CATGraSS future climate simulations. Model simulations are found to be highly sensitive to the initial distribution of shrub cover. Encroachment factors more actively lead to shrub propagation within the domain when the model starts with randomly distributed individual shrubs. However, when shrubs are naturally evolved into clusters, the model response to encroachment factors is muted unless the effect of seed dispersal by herbivores is amplified. The relative contribution of different drivers on modeled shrub encroachment varied based on the initial shrub cover condition used in the model. When historical weather data is used, CATGraSS predicted loss of shrub and grass cover during the 1950 s drought. While future climate change is found to amplify shrub encroachment (∼13% more shrub cover by 2100), grazing remains the dominant factor promoting shrub encroachment. When we modeled future climate

  18. High resolution niche models of malaria vectors in northern Tanzania: a new capacity to predict malaria risk?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manisha A Kulkarni

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Malaria transmission rates in Africa can vary dramatically over the space of a few kilometres. This spatial heterogeneity reflects variation in vector mosquito habitat and presents an important obstacle to the efficient allocation of malaria control resources. Malaria control is further complicated by combinations of vector species that respond differently to control interventions. Recent modelling innovations make it possible to predict vector distributions and extrapolate malaria risk continentally, but these risk mapping efforts have not yet bridged the spatial gap to guide on-the-ground control efforts. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We used Maximum Entropy with purpose-built, high resolution land cover data and other environmental factors to model the spatial distributions of the three dominant malaria vector species in a 94,000 km(2 region of east Africa. Remotely sensed land cover was necessary in each vector's niche model. Seasonality of precipitation and maximum annual temperature also contributed to niche models for Anopheles arabiensis and An. funestus s.l. (AUC 0.989 and 0.991, respectively, but cold season precipitation and elevation were important for An. gambiae s.s. (AUC 0.997. Although these niche models appear highly accurate, the critical test is whether they improve predictions of malaria prevalence in human populations. Vector habitat within 1.5 km of community-based malaria prevalence measurements interacts with elevation to substantially improve predictions of Plasmodium falciparum prevalence in children. The inclusion of the mechanistic link between malaria prevalence and vector habitat greatly improves the precision and accuracy of prevalence predictions (r(2 = 0.83 including vector habitat, or r(2 = 0.50 without vector habitat. Predictions including vector habitat are unbiased (observations vs. model predictions of prevalence: slope = 1.02. Using this model, we generate a high resolution map of predicted

  19. Examining the Evolution of the Peninsula Segment of the San Andreas Fault, Northern California, Using a 4-D Geologic Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horsman, E.; Graymer, R. W.; McLaughlin, R. J.; Jachens, R. C.; Scheirer, D. S.

    2008-12-01

    Retrodeformation of a three-dimensional geologic model allows us to explore the tectonic evolution of the Peninsula segment of the San Andreas Fault and adjacent rock bodies in the San Francisco Bay area. By using geological constraints to quantitatively retrodeform specific surfaces (e.g. unfolding paleohorizontal horizons, removing fault slip), we evaluate the geometric evolution of rock bodies and faults in the study volume and effectively create a four-dimensional model of the geology. The three-dimensional map is divided into fault-bounded blocks and subdivided into lithologic units. Surface geologic mapping provides the foundation for the model. Structural analysis and well data allow extrapolation to a few kilometers depth. Geometries of active faults are inferred from double-difference relocated earthquake hypocenters. Gravity and magnetic data provide constraints on the geometries of low density Cenozoic deposits on denser basement, highly magnetic marker units, and adjacent faults. Existing seismic refraction profiles constrain the geometries of rock bodies with different seismic velocities. Together these datasets and others allow us to construct a model of first-order geologic features in the upper ~15 km of the crust. Major features in the model include the active San Andreas Fault surface; the Pilarcitos Fault, an abandoned strand of the San Andreas; an active NE-vergent fold and thrust belt located E of the San Andreas Fault; regional relief on the basement surface; and several Cenozoic syntectonic basins. Retrodeformation of these features requires constraints from all available datasets (structure, geochronology, paleontology, etc.). Construction of the three-dimensional model and retrodeformation scenarios are non-unique, but significant insights follow from restricting the range of possible geologic histories. For example, we use the model to investigate how the crust responded to migration of the principal slip surface from the Pilarcitos Fault

  20. Canopy Light Absorption and Application of the Light-Use Efficiency Model of Photosynthesis in a Northern Great Plains Grassland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flanagan, L. B.; Sharp, E. J.; Gamon, J. A.

    2014-12-01

    The fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (fAPAR) is fundamentally important for model calculations of ecosystem productivity across large areas. The main objective of this study was to better understand factors influencing fAPAR, its relationship with seasonal variation in canopy greenness (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI)), and the consequences of potential seasonal changes in the NDVI- fAPAR relationship for light-use efficiency model calculations of ecosystem photosynthesis in a semi-arid grassland. We used two approaches to determine fAPAR, (i) incoming and outgoing radiance measurements above and below the canopy, and (ii) an inversion approach based on incident photosynthetically active radiation and the light response curve of net ecosystem productivity (NEP) measured by eddy covariance at low light levels. The two approaches resulted in fAPAR values that were very strongly correlated during the initial development of the canopy until peak leaf area index (LAI) was reached. A strong linear relationship also occurred between fAPAR and NDVI, based on reflectance measurements made along a tram system above the grassland canopy during initial LAI development. After peak LAI, there was hysteresis in the NDVI- fAPAR relationship. Light-use efficiency model calculations of ecosystem photosynthesis made using fAPAR values were strongly correlated with chamber CO2 exchange measurements during the initial development of the canopy leaf area. After peak LAI, a relative stress function, based on either soil moisture or vapour pressure deficit (VPD) measurements, was necessary to reduce quantum yield and model calculations of ecosystem photosynthesis during periods of relatively low soil moisture and higher VPD later in the growing season. Both stress functions were similarly effective in improving the correlation between modeled and measured ecosystem photosynthesis values.

  1. Anticipating the severity of the fire season in Northern Portugal using statistical models based on meteorological indices of fire danger

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nunes, Sílvia A.; DaCamara, Carlos C.; Turkman, Kamil F.; Ermida, Sofia L.; Calado, Teresa J.

    2017-04-01

    Like in other regions of Mediterranean Europe, climate and weather are major drivers of fire activity in Portugal. The aim of the present study is to assess the role played by meteorological factors on inter-annual variability of burned area over a region of Portugal characterized by large fire activity. Monthly cumulated values of burned area in August are obtained from the fire database of ICNF, the Portuguese authority for forests. The role of meteorological factors is characterized by means of Daily Severity Rating, DSR, an index of meteorological fire danger, which is derived from meteorological fields as obtained from ECMWF Interim Reanalysis. The study area is characterized by the predominance of forest, with high percentages of maritime pine and eucalyptus, two species with high flammability in summer. The time series of recorded burned area in August during 1980-2011 is highly correlated (correlation coefficient of 0.93) with the one for whole Portugal. First, a normal distribution model is fitted to the 32-year sample of decimal logarithms of monthly burned area. The model is improved by introducing two covariates:(1) the top-down meteorological factor (DSRtd) which consists of daily cumulated values of DSR since April 1 to July 31 and may be viewed as the cumulated stress on vegetation due to meteorological conditions during the pre-fire season; (2) the bottom-up factor (DSRbu) which consists of the square root of the mean of the squared daily deviations (restricted to days with positive departures of DSR from the corresponding long term mean) and may be viewed as the contribution of days characterized by extreme weather conditions favoring the onset and spreading of wildfires. Three different statistical models are then developed: the "climate anomaly" model, using DSRtd as covariate, the "weather anomaly", using DSRbu as covariate, and the "combined" model using both variables as covariates. These models are used to define background fire danger, fire

  2. Summertime stratospheric processes at northern mid-latitudes: comparisons between MANTRA balloon measurements and the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. M. L. Melo

    2007-08-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we report on a study conducted using the Middle Atmospheric Nitrogen TRend Assessment (MANTRA balloon measurements of stratospheric constituents and temperature and the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model (CMAM in order to evaluate the ability of the model to reproduce the measured fields and to thereby test our ability to describe mid-latitude summertime stratospheric processes. The MANTRA measurements used here are vertical profiles of ozone, temperature, N2O, CH4, HNO3, and HCl obtained during four campaigns, involving the launch of both ozonesondes and large balloons from Vanscoy, Saskatchewan, Canada (52° N, 107° W. The campaigns were conducted in August and September 1998, 2000, 2002 and 2004. During late summer at mid-latitudes, the stratosphere is close to photochemical control, providing an ideal scenario for the study reported here. From this analysis we found that: (1 reducing the value for the vertical diffusion coefficient in CMAM to a more physically reasonable value results in the model better reproducing the measured profiles of long-lived species; (2 the existence of compact correlations among the constituents, as expected from independent measurements in the literature and from models, confirms the self-consistency of the MANTRA measurements; and (3 the 1998 ozone measurements show a narrow layer of low ozone centered near 25 km that is consistent with fossil debris from the polar vortex, suggesting that localized springtime ozone anomalies can persist through summer, affecting ozone levels at mid-latitudes.

  3. High Resolution Niche Models of Malaria Vectors in Northern Tanzania: A New Capacity to Predict Malaria Risk?

    OpenAIRE

    Kulkarni, Manisha A; Desrochers, Rachelle E; Kerr, Jeremy T.

    2010-01-01

    Background Malaria transmission rates in Africa can vary dramatically over the space of a few kilometres. This spatial heterogeneity reflects variation in vector mosquito habitat and presents an important obstacle to the efficient allocation of malaria control resources. Malaria control is further complicated by combinations of vector species that respond differently to control interventions. Recent modelling innovations make it possible to predict vector distributions and extrapolate malaria...

  4. Modeling the Impacts of El Nino Events on Nutrients and Productivity in the Northern Humboldt Current System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Espinoza Morriberon, D.; Echevin, V.; Colas, F.; Tam, J.; Ledesma, J. A.; Vasquez, L.

    2016-12-01

    The Humboldt Current System is one of the most important coastal upwelling system with an intense oxygen minimum zone, a high productivity and an important fishery activity. Every 2 to 7 years, ENSO events profoundly alter the environmental landscape of the system for several months. The ENSO warm phase, El Nino, is characterized by high sea surface temperature and low nutrient and chlorophyll concentration. A regional coupled physical-biogeochemical model is used to describe and understand the physical-biogeochemical coupled processes involved in the decrease of phytoplankton during El Nino, with a particular focus on the strong events. Comparison between observational data from surveys and satellites with model outputs show that our model configuration is able to reproduce the inter-annual dynamic variability off the Peruvian coast and the impacts of El Niño events. Temperature and sea level anomalies increase, while chlorophyll and nutrients concentration decrease. Passages of strong coastal-trapped waves during El Niño deepen both the thermocline and the nutricline and chlorophyll concentrations decrease. The upwelling intensity weakens because of a zonal geostrophic current flowing toward the coast. We show that the depth of upwelled waters does not change considerably, however their nitrate concentration decreases dramatically limiting the phytoplankton growth. We also illustrate that eddies also play an important role in nitrate loss during El Nino by increasing the offshore subduction.

  5. Performance model to assist solar thermal power plant siting in northern Chile based on backup fuel consumption

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Larrain, Teresita; Escobar, Rodrigo; Vergara, Julio [Departamento de Ingenieria Mecanica y Metalurgica, Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile, Vicuna Mackenna 4860, Macul, Santiago (Chile)

    2010-08-15

    In response to environmental awareness, Chile introduced sustainability goals in its electricity law. Power producers must deliver 5% from renewable sources by 2010 and 10% by 2024. The Chilean desert has a large available surface with one of the highest radiation levels and clearest skies in the World. These factors imply that solar power is an option for this task. However, a commercial plant requires a fossil fuel system to backup the sunlight intermittency. The authors developed a thermodynamical model to estimate the backup fraction needed in a 100 MW hybrid -solar-fossil- parabolic trough power plant. This paper presents the model aiming to predicting the performance and exploring its usefulness in assisting site selection among four locations. Since solar radiation data are only available in a monthly average, we introduced two approaches to feed the model. One data set provided an average month with identical days throughout and the other one considered an artificial month of different daylight profiles on an hourly basis for the same monthly average. We recommend a best plant location based on minimum fossil fuel backup, contributing to optimal siting from the energy perspective. Utilities will refine their policy goals more closely when a precise solar energy data set becomes available. (author)

  6. 21st century changes in snow water equivalent over Northern Hemisphere landmasses due to increasing temperature, projected with the CMIP5 models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. X. Shi

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Changes in snow water equivalent (SWE over Northern Hemisphere (NH landmasses are investigated for the early (2016–2035, middle (2046–2065 and late (2080–2099 21st century using twenty global climate models, which are from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5. The results show that, relative to the 1986–2005 mean, the multi-model ensemble projects a significant decrease in SWE for most regions, particularly over the Tibetan Plateau and western North America, but an increase in eastern Siberia. Seasonal SWE projections show an overall decreasing trend, with the greatest reduction in spring, which is linked to the stronger inverse partial correlation between the SWE and increasing temperature. Moreover, zonal mean annual SWE exhibits significant reductions in three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP, a stronger linear relationship between SWE and temperature at mid–high latitudes suggests the reduction in SWE there is related to rising temperature. However, the rate of reduction in SWE declines gradually during the 21st century, indicating that the temperature may reach a threshold value that decreases the rate of SWE reduction. A large reduction in zonal maximum SWE (ZMSWE between 30° and 40° N is evident in all 21st century for the three RCPs, while RCP8.5 alone indicates a further reduction at high latitudes in the late period of the century. This pattern implies that ZMSWE is affected not only by a terrain factor but also by the increasing temperature. In summary, our results show both a decreasing trend in SWE in the 21st century and a decline in the rate of SWE reduction over the 21st century despite rising temperatures.

  7. Trophic modeling of the Northern Humboldt Current Ecosystem, Part I: Comparing trophic linkages under La Niña and El Niño conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tam, Jorge; Taylor, Marc H.; Blaskovic, Verónica; Espinoza, Pepe; Michael Ballón, R.; Díaz, Erich; Wosnitza-Mendo, Claudia; Argüelles, Juan; Purca, Sara; Ayón, Patricia; Quipuzcoa, Luis; Gutiérrez, Dimitri; Goya, Elisa; Ochoa, Noemí; Wolff, Matthias

    2008-10-01

    The El Niño of 1997-98 was one of the strongest warming events of the past century; among many other effects, it impacted phytoplankton along the Peruvian coast by changing species composition and reducing biomass. While responses of the main fish resources to this natural perturbation are relatively well known, understanding the ecosystem response as a whole requires an ecotrophic multispecies approach. In this work, we construct trophic models of the Northern Humboldt Current Ecosystem (NHCE) and compare the La Niña (LN) years in 1995-96 with the El Niño (EN) years in 1997-98. The model area extends from 4°S-16°S and to 60 nm from the coast. The model consists of 32 functional groups of organisms and differs from previous trophic models of the Peruvian system through: (i) division of plankton into size classes to account for EN-associated changes and feeding preferences of small pelagic fish, (ii) increased division of demersal groups and separation of life history stages of hake, (iii) inclusion of mesopelagic fish, and (iv) incorporation of the jumbo squid ( Dosidicus gigas), which became abundant following EN. Results show that EN reduced the size and organization of energy flows of the NHCE, but the overall functioning (proportion of energy flows used for respiration, consumption by predators, detritus and export) of the ecosystem was maintained. The reduction of diatom biomass during EN forced omnivorous planktivorous fish to switch to a more zooplankton-dominated diet, raising their trophic level. Consequently, in the EN model the trophic level increased for several predatory groups (mackerel, other large pelagics, sea birds, pinnipeds) and for fishery catch. A high modeled biomass of macrozooplankton was needed to balance the consumption by planktivores, especially during EN condition when observed diatoms biomass diminished dramatically. Despite overall lower planktivorous fish catches, the higher primary production required-to-catch ratio implied a

  8. Numerical groundwater flow modeling of the northern river catchment of the Lake Tana, Upper Blue Basin, Ethiopia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nigussie Ayehu Asrie

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The study area is found North Western plateau in the North Gondar zone, Amhara regional state, Ethiopia. Its total surface coverage is 1887km2.The study area boundary was delineated from 90m Shutter Radar Terrain Mapping (SRTM digital elevation model (DEM using Global Mapper 8 software. Based on geologic information of the study area, unconfined subsurface flow condition was considered and simulated using MODFLOW 2000. The model calibration accounts the matching of the 58 observation point with simulated head with a permissible residual head of ±10m. 75% of the difference the observed and measured water level head in the study area is 5m. . The model was calibrated with mean error 0.506, absolute mean error 4.431m and standard deviation 6.083m. Based on the calibration process, the model is very sensitive in decreasing order change in recharge, hydraulic conductivity, and stream bed conductance. The simulated out flow of the model is 205.7Mm3/year which is nearly equal to simulated inflow with difference 2,887.45m3/yr. The base flow simulated discharge Megech River holds 35.8% of the out flow. The river contributed as recharge in to the aquifer that accounts to 15.3% of the inflow. Steady state withdrawal rates were increased by 15%, 35%, 55%, 75% and 100% to study the response of the system in this scenario. From the simulation results, one can observe that the development of a new groundwater sources would not pose appreciable impact in case of 15% and 35% withdrawal the head declines in this case is insignificant relative to the steady state withdrawal rate and the natural discharges were not altered highly. The simulation result indicated that the stream leakage decreased by 7.9% relative to the whole steady state value, but showed 14.9% decrease for Angereb, Keha, and Shinta river segments near the well field area. The water tables decline by 3.6m to18.8m in head observation in the well field area. The steady state simulated recharge was

  9. Conveying Flood Hazard Risk Through Spatial Modeling: A Case Study for Hurricane Sandy-Affected Communities in Northern New Jersey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Artigas, Francisco; Bosits, Stephanie; Kojak, Saleh; Elefante, Dominador; Pechmann, Ildiko

    2016-10-01

    The accurate forecast from Hurricane Sandy sea surge was the result of integrating the most sophisticated environmental monitoring technology available. This stands in contrast to the limited information and technology that exists at the community level to translate these forecasts into flood hazard levels on the ground at scales that are meaningful to property owners. Appropriately scaled maps with high levels of certainty can be effectively used to convey exposure to flood hazard at the community level. This paper explores the most basic analysis and data required to generate a relatively accurate flood hazard map to convey inundation risk due to sea surge. A Boolean overlay analysis of four input layers: elevation and slope derived from LiDAR data and distances from streams and catch basins derived from aerial photography and field reconnaissance were used to create a spatial model that explained 55 % of the extent and depth of the flood during Hurricane Sandy. When a ponding layer was added to the previous model to account for depressions that would fill and spill over to nearby areas, the new model explained almost 70 % of the extent and depth of the flood. The study concludes that fairly accurate maps can be created with readily available information and that it is possible to infer a great deal about risk of inundation at the property level, from flood hazard maps. The study goes on to conclude that local communities are encouraged to prepare for disasters, but in reality because of the existing Federal emergency management framework there is very little incentive to do so.

  10. Conveying Flood Hazard Risk Through Spatial Modeling: A Case Study for Hurricane Sandy-Affected Communities in Northern New Jersey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Artigas, Francisco; Bosits, Stephanie; Kojak, Saleh; Elefante, Dominador; Pechmann, Ildiko

    2016-10-01

    The accurate forecast from Hurricane Sandy sea surge was the result of integrating the most sophisticated environmental monitoring technology available. This stands in contrast to the limited information and technology that exists at the community level to translate these forecasts into flood hazard levels on the ground at scales that are meaningful to property owners. Appropriately scaled maps with high levels of certainty can be effectively used to convey exposure to flood hazard at the community level. This paper explores the most basic analysis and data required to generate a relatively accurate flood hazard map to convey inundation risk due to sea surge. A Boolean overlay analysis of four input layers: elevation and slope derived from LiDAR data and distances from streams and catch basins derived from aerial photography and field reconnaissance were used to create a spatial model that explained 55 % of the extent and depth of the flood during Hurricane Sandy. When a ponding layer was added to the previous model to account for depressions that would fill and spill over to nearby areas, the new model explained almost 70 % of the extent and depth of the flood. The study concludes that fairly accurate maps can be created with readily available information and that it is possible to infer a great deal about risk of inundation at the property level, from flood hazard maps. The study goes on to conclude that local communities are encouraged to prepare for disasters, but in reality because of the existing Federal emergency management framework there is very little incentive to do so.

  11. Stakeholder discourse and water management – implementation of the participatory model CATCH in a Northern Italian alpine sub-catchment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Collentine

    2008-03-01

    Full Text Available The Water Framework Directive (WFD, directive 2000/60/EC was created to ensure the sustainable use of water resources in the European Union. A central guideline included throughout the directive is a call for the participation of stakeholders in the management of these resources. Involving stakeholders is an important step to ensure that catchment management plans take into consideration local experience in the development of these plans and the impact of the plans on local interests. This paper describes and analyses the results of a series of workshops to facilitate implementation of the WFD at a catchment level based on the stakeholder participation model, CATCH. To test the usefulness of the CATCH model, developed for water management in a catchment area, a sub-catchment in an alpine valley in the north-east of Italy, the Alta Valsugana in the Province of Trento, was chosen as the setting for a series of workshops. In this valley water is fundamental for activities associated with agriculture, domestic use, energy production, sports and recreation. In the recent past the valley has had serious problems related to water quality and quantity. Implementation of water management plans under the WFD may lead to conflicts within the catchment between different stakeholder interest groups. Including stakeholders in the development of management plans not only follows the guidelines of the WFD but also could result in a more locally adapted and acceptable plan for the catchment. A new stakeholder analysis methodology was developed and implemented in order to identify the relevant stakeholders of the area and then two sets of workshops involving the key stakeholders identified were conducted in Spring 2006. The CATCH meetings were a new experience for the participants, who had to deal with both the principles of the WFD in general and the participation requirement in particular. During the meetings, the CATCH model played a very important role in

  12. Long Term Subsidence Analysis and Soil Fracturing Zonation Based on InSAR Time Series Modelling in Northern Zona Metropolitana del Valle de Mexico

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriela Llanet Siles

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available In this study deformation processes in northern Zona Metropolitana del Valle de Mexico (ZMVM are evaluated by means of advanced multi-temporal interferometry. ERS and ENVISAT time series, covering approximately an 11-year period (between 1999 and 2010, were produced showing mainly linear subsidence behaviour for almost the entire area under study, but increasing rates that reach up to 285 mm/yr. Important non-linear deformation was identified in certain areas, presumably suggesting interaction between subsidence and other processes. Thus, a methodology for identification of probable fracturing zones based on discrimination and modelling of the non-linear (quadratic function component is presented. This component was mapped and temporal subsidence evolution profiles were constructed across areas where notable acceleration (maximum of 8 mm/yr2 or deceleration (maximum of −9 mm/yr2 is found. This methodology enables location of potential soil fractures that could impact relevant infrastructure such as the Tunel Emisor Oriente (TEO (along the structure rates exceed 200 mm/yr. Additionally, subsidence behaviour during wet and dry seasons is tackled in partially urbanized areas. This paper provides useful information for geological risk assessment in the area.

  13. Orthothermographies and 3D modeling as potential tools in ice caves studies: the Peña Castil Ice Cave (Picos de Europa, Northern Spain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fernando Berenguer-Sempere

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Currently there are many studies focused on the investigation of climatic and glaciological condition of ice caves. Here we present another way to address these studies, applying some methods already used in fields other than geomorphology. The versatility and accuracy provided by the use of modern topography and thermography techniques, using Terrestrial Laser Scanner and current thermographic cameras- and the creation of 3D thermographic models and orthothermographies derived from them - is shown to be a useful tool as it is difficult to obtain data from fieldwork and traditional methods used in caves. This paper presents the potential uses of combined TLS and thermographic techniques for monitoring some important climatological parameters in the sensitive periglacial environment of the Iberian Atlantic high mountains: Peña Castil Ice Cave (Picos de Europa, Northern Spain. A systematic application of such combined technologies to these kind of caves, is expected to contribute to a quantitative and concise characterization of the evolution of the ice as shown by the results of this study.

  14. Effects of agriculture crop residue burning on aerosol properties and long-range transport over northern India: A study using satellite data and model simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vijayakumar, K.; Safai, P. D.; Devara, P. C. S.; Rao, S. Vijaya Bhaskara; Jayasankar, C. K.

    2016-09-01

    Agriculture crop residue burning in the tropics is a major source of the global atmospheric aerosols and monitoring their long-range transport is an important element in climate change studies. In this paper, we study the effects of agriculture crop residue burning on aerosol properties and long-range transport over northern India during a smoke event that occurred between 09 and 17 November 2013, with the help of satellite measurements and model simulation data. Satellite data observations on aerosol properties suggested transport of particles from agriculture crop residue burning in Indo-Gangetic Plains (IGP) over large regions. Additionally, ECMWF winds at 850 hPa have been used to trace the source, path and spatial extent of smoke events. Most of the smoke aerosols, during the study period, travel from a west-to-east pathway from the source-to-sink region. Furthermore, aerosol vertical profiles from CALIPSO show a layer of thick smoke extending from surface to an altitude of about 3 km. Smoke aerosols emitted from biomass burning activity from Punjab have been found to be a major contributor to the deterioration of local air quality over the NE Indian region due to their long range transport.

  15. Autogenic versus allogenic controls on the evolution of a coupled fluvial megafan-mountainous catchment system: numerical modelling and comparison with the Lannemezan megafan system (northern Pyrenees, France)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mouchené, Margaux; van der Beek, Peter; Carretier, Sébastien; Mouthereau, Frédéric

    2017-02-01

    Alluvial megafans are sensitive recorders of landscape evolution, controlled by both autogenic processes and allogenic forcing, and they are influenced by the coupled dynamics of the fan with its mountainous catchment. The Lannemezan megafan in the northern Pyrenean foreland was abandoned by its mountainous feeder stream during the Quaternary and subsequently incised, leaving a flight of alluvial terraces along the stream network. We use numerical models to explore the relative roles of autogenic processes and external forcing in the building, abandonment and incision of a foreland megafan, and we compare the results with the inferred evolution of the Lannemezan megafan. Autogenic processes are sufficient to explain the building of a megafan and the long-term entrenchment of its feeding river on time and space scales that match the Lannemezan setting. Climate, through temporal variations in precipitation rate, may have played a role in the episodic pattern of incision on a shorter timescale. In contrast, base-level changes, tectonic activity in the mountain range or tilting of the foreland through flexural isostatic rebound do not appear to have played a role in the abandonment of the megafan.

  16. Seasonal and Inter-annual Variability in Modeled Larval Dispersal and Population Connectivity of Blue Crabs (Callinectes sapidus) in the Northern Gulf of Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gyory, J.; Jones, B.; Ko, D. S.; Taylor, C.

    2016-02-01

    Larval dispersal trajectories and their resulting population connectivity patterns are known to be key drivers of population dynamics for many marine organisms. However, few studies to date have examined the temporal variability in population connectivity. Here, we model the larval dispersal and population connectivity of blue crabs in the northern Gulf of Mexico from 2003-2012 and use network analyses to understand how they vary over seasonal and inter-annual scales. We found that in all years, the Mississippi River Delta is a barrier to dispersal. Few larvae cross it and settle successfully. In some years (2004, 2007, 2008, and 2009), 1-2 locations (Adams Bay and Chandeleur Sound) had high (> 0.3) betweenness centrality. These locations are likely to be important for maintaining population connectivity in the region, since more than 30% of larval pathways are predicted to pass through them. Connectivity matrices suggest that some estuaries have consistently high larval retention rates. These include West Cote Blanche Bay, Chandeleur Sound, and, in some years, Pensacola Bay and Atchafalaya Bay. Within the spawning season, we observe a decline in average vertex degree and average source strength in every year. This suggests that seasonal declines in the strength of along-shore currents produce consistent reductions in population connectivity through the spawning season.

  17. Political violence and child adjustment in Northern Ireland: Testing pathways in a social ecological model including single and two-parent families

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cummings, E. Mark; Schermerhorn, Alice C.; Merrilees, Christine E.; Goeke-Morey, Marcie C.; Shirlow, Peter; Cairns, Ed

    2013-01-01

    Moving beyond simply documenting that political violence negatively impacts children, a social ecological hypothesis for relations between political violence and child outcomes was tested. Participants were 700 mother-child (M=12.1years, SD=1.8) dyads from 18 working class, socially deprived areas in Belfast, Northern Ireland, including single- and two-parent families. Sectarian community violence was associated with elevated family conflict and children’s reduced security about multiple aspects of their social environment (i.e., family, parent-child relations, and community), with links to child adjustment problems and reductions in prosocial behavior. By comparison, and consistent with expectations, links with negative family processes, child regulatory problems and child outcomes were less consistent for nonsectarian community violence. Support was found for a social ecological model for relations between political violence and child outcomes among both single and two parent families, with evidence that emotional security and adjustment problems were more negatively affected in single-parent families. The implications for understanding social ecologies of political violence and children’s functioning are discussed. PMID:20604605

  18. Estimate of soil organic carbon and greenhouse gas emissions in para rubber (Hevea brasiliensis Mull. Arg plantation by DNDC model in Upland Area Northern, Thailand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Podong

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The process-oriented model DNDC describing biogeochemical cycling of C and N and greenhouse gases (GHGs fluxes carbon dioxide (CO2, nitrous oxide (N2O, nitric oxide (NO in para rubber plantation was applied to simulate carbon sequestration and GHGs emissions in a para rubber plantation of small watershed in the lower part of northern Thailand. The results indicated that the simulated gross primary production (GPP and soil organic carbon (SOC of the para rubber plantation was strongly affected by temperature. The annual total GPP was 2,765.8 kg C /ha/yr, and net primary production (NPP was 2,032.4. The SOC in 0-10 cm. were 4,983 kg C /ha/yr for 2011.The simulated seasonal variation in CO2 emissions generally followed the seasonal variations in temperature and precipitation. The annual total CO2 emission was 976.53 kg C /ha/yr for 2011, the simulated annual total N2O emissions from the plantation's soil was 10.51 kg N ha-1yr-1 for 2011, the annual total NO emissions were 0.87 kg N /ha/yr for 2011, and the annual Dissolved Organic Matter (DOM leaching was 0.23 kg C /ha/yr.

  19. Evaluation of the Performance of ClimGen and LARS-WG models in generating rainfall and temperature time series in rainfed research station of Sisab, Northern Khorasan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    najmeh khalili

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Introduction:Many existing results on water and agriculture researches require long-term statistical climate data, while practically; the available collected data in synoptic stations are quite short. Therefore, the required daily climate data should be generated based on the limited available data. For this purpose, weather generators can be used to enlarge the data length. Among the common weather generators, two models are more common: LARS-WG and ClimGen. Different studies have shown that these two models have different results in different regions and climates. Therefore, the output results of these two methods should be validated based on the climate and weather conditions of the study region. Materials and Methods:The Sisab station is 35 KM away from Bojnord city in Northern Khorasan. This station was established in 1366 and afterwards, the meteorological data including precipitation data are regularly collected. Geographical coordination of this station is 37º 25׳ N and 57º 38׳ E, and the elevation is 1359 meter. The climate in this region is dry and cold under Emberge and semi-dry under Demarton Methods. In this research, LARG-WG model, version 5.5, and ClimGen model, version 4.4, were used to generate 500 data sample for precipitation and temperature time series. The performance of these two models, were evaluated using RMSE, MAE, and CD over the 30 years collected data and their corresponding generated data. Also, to compare the statistical similarity of the generated data with the collected data, t-student, F, and X2 tests were used. With these tests, the similarity of 16 statistical characteristics of the generated data and the collected data has been investigated in the level of confidence 95%. Results and Discussion:This study showed that LARS-WG model can better generate precipitation data in terms of statistical error criteria. RMSE and MAE for the generated data by LAR-WG were less than ClimGen model while the CD value of

  20. Large Scale Earth's Bow Shock with Northern IMF as simulated by PIC code in parallel with MHD model

    CERN Document Server

    Baraka, Suleiman M

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, we propose a 3D kinetic model (Particle-in-Cell PIC ) for the description of the large scale Earth's bow shock. The proposed version is stable and does not require huge or extensive computer resources. Because PIC simulations work with scaled plasma and field parameters, we also propose to validate our code by comparing its results with the available MHD simulations under same scaled Solar wind ( SW ) and ( IMF ) conditions. We report new results from the two models. In both codes the Earth's bow shock position is found to be ~14.8 RE along the Sun-Earth line, and ~ 29 RE on the dusk side. Those findings are consistent with past in situ observations. Both simulations reproduce the theoretical jump conditions at the shock. However, the PIC code density and temperature distributions are inflated and slightly shifted sunward when compared to the MHD results. Kinetic electron motions and reflected ions upstream may cause this sunward shift. Species distributions in the foreshock region are depicted...

  1. Documentation of a groundwater flow model developed to assess groundwater availability in the Northern Atlantic Coastal Plain aquifer system from Long Island, New York, to North Carolina

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masterson, John P.; Pope, Jason P.; Fienen, Michael N.; Monti, Jr., Jack; Nardi, Mark R.; Finkelstein, Jason S.

    2016-08-31

    The U.S. Geological Survey developed a groundwater flow model for the Northern Atlantic Coastal Plain aquifer system from Long Island, New York, to northeastern North Carolina as part of a detailed assessment of the groundwater availability of the area and included an evaluation of how these resources have changed over time from stresses related to human uses and climate trends. The assessment was necessary because of the substantial dependency on groundwater for agricultural, industrial, and municipal needs in this area.The three-dimensional, groundwater flow model developed for this investigation used the numerical code MODFLOW–NWT to represent changes in groundwater pumping and aquifer recharge from predevelopment (before 1900) to future conditions, from 1900 to 2058. The model was constructed using existing hydrogeologic and geospatial information to represent the aquifer system geometry, boundaries, and hydraulic properties of the 19 separate regional aquifers and confining units within the Northern Atlantic Coastal Plain aquifer system and was calibrated using an inverse modeling parameter-estimation (PEST) technique.The parameter estimation process was achieved through history matching, using observations of heads and flows for both steady-state and transient conditions. A total of 8,868 annual water-level observations from 644 wells from 1986 to 2008 were combined into 29 water-level observation groups that were chosen to focus the history matching on specific hydrogeologic units in geographic areas in which distinct geologic and hydrologic conditions were observed. In addition to absolute water-level elevations, the water-level differences between individual measurements were also included in the parameter estimation process to remove the systematic bias caused by missing hydrologic stresses prior to 1986. The total average residual of –1.7 feet was normally distributed for all head groups, indicating minimal bias. The average absolute residual value

  2. Fertilization of Northern Hardwoods

    Science.gov (United States)

    R. Lea; D.G. Brockway

    1986-01-01

    Northern hardwoods grow over a considerable range of climatic and edaphic conditions and exhibit a wide range in productivity.Many northern hardwood forests are capable of high production relative to other forest types, but are often slow to reach maximum productivity because of low nutrient availability.Altering the patterns of biomass accumulation so that managers...

  3. Monitoring and modelling for landslide risk mitigation and reduction. The case study of San Benedetto Ullano (Northern Calabria - Italy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Terranova, Oreste G.; Greco, Venanzio R.; Gariano, Stefano L.; Pascale, Stefania; Rago, Valeria; Caloiero, Paola; Iovine, Giulio G. R.

    2016-04-01

    movements caused severe damage to roads and infrastructure. The second crisis ended up in late June: the hydrological model FLaIR was then successfully tested against the known dates of activation of the slope movement, by using a local rain series [3]. Meanwhile, technical support was being assured to the Municipality to optimize geological prospections, monitoring, and design of remedial works of a master plan. A third activation occurred during the night of 15 March 2013, when planned remedial works had not been completed yet. By applying the hydrological model SAKe [4, 5], this activation could be predicted, again permitting the prompt adoption of mitigation measures. Such activation was triggered by rains smaller and shorter than those that caused previous activations, perhaps indicating an apparent increasing fragility of the slope. Changes in slope stability conditions before and after the construction of the remedial works are being investigated. Critical rain conditions and groundwater levels for landslide activation are in fact expected to change, depending on combined effects of natural weakening vs. artificial strengthening. Monitoring will allow to quantitatively verify the new relationships between rainfall, groundwater and slope stability. References [1] Iovine G., Iaquinta P. & Terranova O. (2009). In Anderssen, Braddock & Newham (Eds.), Proc. 18th World IMACS Congr. and MODSIM09 Int. Congr. on Modelling and Simulation, pp. 2686-2693. [2] Iovine G., Lollino P., Gariano S.L. & Terranova O.G. (2010). NHESS, 10, 2341-2354. [3] Capparelli G., Iaquinta P., Iovine G., Terranova O.G. & Versace P. (2012). Natural Hazards, 61(1), pp.247-256. [4] Terranova O.G., Iaquinta P., Gariano S.L., Greco R. & Iovine G. (2013) In: Landslide Science and Practice, Margottini, Canuti, Sassa (Eds.), Vol. 3, pp.73-79. [5] Terranova O.G., Gariano S.L., Iaquinta P. & Iovine G.G.R. (2015). Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 1955-1978.

  4. Reorienting health services in the Northern Territory of Australia: a conceptual model for building health promotion capacity in the workforce.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Judd, Jenni; Keleher, Helen

    2013-06-01

    Reorienting work practices to include health promotion and prevention is complex and requires specific strategies and interventions. This paper presents original research that used 'real-world' practice to demonstrate that knowledge gathered from practice is relevant for the development of practice-based evidence. The paper shows how practitioners can inform and influence improvements in health promotion practice. Practitioner-informed evidence necessarily incorporates qualitative research to capture the richness of their reflective experiences. Using a participatory action research (PAR) approach, the research question asked 'what are the core dimensions of building health promotion capacity in a primary health care workforce in a real-world setting?' PAR is a method in which the researcher operates in full collaboration with members of the organisation being studied for the purposes of achieving some kind of change, in this case to increase the amount of health promotion and prevention practice within this community health setting. The PAR process involved six reflection and action cycles over two years. Data collection processes included: survey; in-depth interviews; a training intervention; observations of practice; workplace diaries; and two nominal groups. The listen/reflect/act process enabled lessons from practice to inform future capacity-building processes. This research strengthened and supported the development of health promotion to inform 'better health' practices through respectful change processes based on research, practitioner-informed evidence, and capacity-building strategies. A conceptual model for building health promotion capacity in the primary health care workforce was informed by the PAR processes and recognised the importance of the determinants approach. Practitioner-informed evidence is the missing link in the evidence debate and provides the links between evidence and its translation to practice. New models of health promotion service

  5. A high-resolution model of the external and induced magnetic field at the Earth's surface in the Northern Hemisphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shore, R. M.; Freeman, M. P.; Wild, J. A.; Gjerloev, J. W.

    2017-02-01

    We describe a method of producing high-resolution models of the Earth's combined external and induced magnetic field using the method of empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) applied to the SuperMAG archive of ground-based magnetometer data. EOFs partition the variance of a system into independent modes, allowing us to extract the spatiotemporal patterns of greatest dynamical importance without applying the a priori assumptions of other methods (such as spherical harmonic analysis, parameterized averaging, or multivariate regression). We develop an approach based on that of Beckers and Rixen (2003) and use the EOF modes to infill missing data in a self-consistent manner. Applying our method to a north polar case study spanning February 2001 (chosen for its proximity to solar maximum and good data coverage), we demonstrate that 41.7% and 9.4% of variance is explained by the leading two modes, respectively, describing the temporal variations of the disturbance polar types 2 and 1 (DP2 and DP1) patterns. A further 14.1% of variance is explained by four modes that describe separate aspects of the motion of the DP1 and DP2 systems. Thus, collectively over 65% of variance is described by the leading six modes and is attributable to DP1 and DP2. This attribution is based on inspection of the spatial morphology of the modes and analysis of the temporal variation of the mode amplitudes with respect to solar wind measures and substorm occurrence. This study is primarily a demonstration of the technique and a prelude to a model spanning the full solar cycle.

  6. Large Scale Earth’s Bow Shock with Northern IMF as Simulated by PIC Code in Parallel with MHD Model

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Suleiman Baraka

    2016-06-01

    In this paper, we propose a 3D kinetic model (particle-in-cell, PIC) for the description of the large scale Earth’s bow shock. The proposed version is stable and does not require huge or extensive computer resources. Because PIC simulations work with scaled plasma and field parameters, we also propose to validate our code by comparing its results with the available MHD simulations under same scaled solar wind (SW) and (IMF) conditions. We report new results from the two models. In both codes the Earth’s bow shock position is found to be $\\approx 14.8 R_{{\\rm E}}$ along the Sun–Earth line, and $\\approx 29 R_{{\\rm E}}$ on the dusk side. Those findings are consistent with past in situ observations. Both simulations reproduce the theoretical jump conditions at the shock. However, the PIC code density and temperature distributions are inflated and slightly shifted sunward when compared to the MHD results. Kinetic electron motions and reflected ions upstream may cause this sunward shift. Species distributions in the foreshock region are depicted within the transition of the shock (measured $\\approx$2$c/\\omega_{pi}$ for $ \\Theta_{Bn}=90^{\\circ}$ and $M_{{\\rm MS}} = 4.7 $) and in the downstream. The size of the foot jump in the magnetic field at the shock is measured to be ($1.7 c/ \\omega_{pi} $). In the foreshocked region, the thermal velocity is found equal to 213 km $s^{−1}$ at $15R_{{\\rm E}}$ and is equal to $63 km s^{-1}$ at $12 R_{{\\rm E}}$ (magnetosheath region). Despite the large cell size of the current version of the PIC code, it is powerful to retain macrostructure of planets magnetospheres in very short time, thus it can be used for pedagogical test purposes. It is also likely complementary with MHD to deepen our understanding of the large scale magnetosphere.

  7. A Groundwater flow Model of the Colorado River Delta to Support Riparian Habitat Restoration in Northern Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maddock, T.; Feirstein, E.; Baird, K. J.; Ajami, H.

    2007-05-01

    Quantification of groundwater flow dynamics and of the interactions among groundwater, surface water, and riparian vegetation, represent key components in the development of a balanced restoration plan for functional riparian ecosystems. A groundwater model was developed using MODFLOW 2000 to support of riparian restoration along the Colorado River Delta (Mexico: Baja California, Sonora). The Colorado River is widely recognized as one of the most modified and allocated rivers in the United States. For over 50 years flows into the Delta were severely reduced by the requirements of an emergent American West. However, subsequent to discharge pulses associated with the filling of Lake Powell, and the increased precipitation that accompanied ENSO cycles, a semblance of a native riparian habitat has been observed in the Delta since the 1980's (Zamora- Arroyo et al. 2001). The Delta and the riparian ecosystems of the region have since become the focus of a substantial body of multidisciplinary research. The research goal is to understand water table dynamics with particular attention to stream-aquifer interactions and groundwater behavior in the root zone. Groundwater reliant transpiration requirements were quantified for a set of dominant native riparian species using the Riparian ET (RIP-ET) package, an improved MODFLOW evapotranspiration (ET) module. RIP-ET simulates ET using a set of eco-physiologically based curves that more accurately represents individual plant species, reflects habitat complexity, and deals spatially with plant and water table distribution. When used in conjunction with a GIS based postprocessor (RIP-GIS.net), RIP-ET provides the basis for mapping groundwater conditions as they relate to user-specified plant groups. This explicit link between groundwater and plant sustainability is a driver to restoration design and allows for scenario modeling of various hydrologic conditions. Groundwater requirements determined in this research will be used by

  8. Fish community modeling agents on an artificial reef on the northern coast of Rio de Janeiro - Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Shimada Brotto

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available Stationary visual census surveys were performed on an experimental artificial reef (21º29'S, 41º00'W to clarify the role of structural complexity and benthic community as fish community modeling agents. Concrete modules of four types were grouped according to the combination of structural complexity through the presence/absence of holes and favourable/unfavourable surface for benthic colonization by anti-fouling painting. The survey (December 2002 to March 2003 showed higher abundance, richness and diversity in the complex modules. The same habitat usage pattern was observed according to vertical position and bottom type categories: demersal, hard-bottom and habitat generalist fishes preferred the complex ones. A higher number of juveniles occurred at those modules. It is assumed that trophic relationships and different habitat selection related to ontogenetic stages are also important modeling agents to the fish community structure since juvenile fish seem to actively seek the experimental complex modules.Censos visuais estacionários foram realizados em um recife artificial (21º29'S, 41º00'W para determinar o papel da complexidade estrutural e da comunidade bêntica como agentes modeladores da comunidade íctica. Módulos de concreto foram agrupados de acordo com a combinação do fator complexidade estrutural através da presença/ausência de cavidades internas nos módulos e de superfícies favoráveis/desfavoráveis à colonização da comunidade bêntica através de tinta anti-incrustante. De dezembro de 2002 a março de 2003, foram registrados maiores valores de abundância, riqueza e diversidade nos módulos complexos. Padrões de uso de habitat similares foram observados de acordo com a posição vertical na coluna de água e tipo de fundo: peixes demersais, de fundo consolidado e habitat generalista preferiram módulos complexos. Os resultados indicam que relações tróficas e seleção de habitat relacionada ao estágio ontogen

  9. High-Resolution Modeling of the Predictability of Convective Systems, and Influences by Absorbing Aerosols Over Northern India and the Himalayas Foothills During Boreal Summer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Kyu-Myong; Lau, William K.-M.; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Shi, Jainn; Tan, Qian; Chin, Mian; Matsui, Toshihisa; Bian, Huisheng

    2011-01-01

    The Himalayas foothills region (HFR) is an important component of the South Asian monsoon. To the south, the HFR borders the fertile, populous, and heavily polluted Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP). To the north, it rises to great height (approx. 4-5 km) to the Tibetan Plateau over a distance of less than 100 km. The HFR itself consists of complex mountainous terrain, with strong orographic forcing for precipitation. During the late spring and early summer, dust aerosol from the Thar and Middle East deserts , as well as moisture from the Arabian Sea were transported to the western part of the western part of the IGP and foothills spurs pre-monsoon severe thunderstorm over the region. During the monsoon season (mid June -August) convection from the Bay of Bengal, spread along the foothills northwestward to northern Pakistan. Recent climate model studies and preliminary observations have indicted not only the importance of dynamical forcing of precipitation in the HFR, but also possible strong impacts by the dense aerosols, from both local sources, and remote transport, that blanket the IGP from late spring up to the onset of the monsoon in June, and during monsoon breaks in July. In this work, we use the NASA Unified Weather Research and Forecasting (Nu-WRF) model to study the predictability ( 1-7 days) South Asian monsoon rainfall system. Results of 7 -day forecast experiments using an embedded domain of 27 km and 9 km resolution were conducted for the period June 11- July 15, 2008, with and without aerosol forcing are carried out to assess the intrinsic predictability of rainfall over the HFR, and possible impacts by aerosol direct effect, and possible connection of large-scale South Asian monsoon system.

  10. Advancing the climate data driven crop-modeling studies in the dry areas of Northern Syria and Lebanon: an important first step for assessing impact of future climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dixit, Prakash N; Telleria, Roberto

    2015-04-01

    Inter-annual and seasonal variability in climatic parameters, most importantly rainfall, have potential to cause climate-induced risk in long-term crop production. Short-term field studies do not capture the full nature of such risk and the extent to which modifications to crop, soil and water management recommendations may be made to mitigate the extent of such risk. Crop modeling studies driven by long-term daily weather data can predict the impact of climate-induced risk on crop growth and yield however, the availability of long-term daily weather data can present serious constraints to the use of crop models. To tackle this constraint, two weather generators namely, LARS-WG and MarkSim, were evaluated in order to assess their capabilities of reproducing frequency distributions, means, variances, dry spell and wet chains of observed daily precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature, and solar radiation for the eight locations across cropping areas of Northern Syria and Lebanon. Further, the application of generated long-term daily weather data, with both weather generators, in simulating barley growth and yield was also evaluated. We found that overall LARS-WG performed better than MarkSim in generating daily weather parameters and in 50 years continuous simulation of barley growth and yield. Our findings suggest that LARS-WG does not necessarily require long-term e.g., >30 years observed weather data for calibration as generated results proved to be satisfactory with >10 years of observed data except in area with higher altitude. Evaluating these weather generators and the ability of generated weather data to perform long-term simulation of crop growth and yield is an important first step to assess the impact of future climate on yields, and to identify promising technologies to make agricultural systems more resilient in the given region. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  11. 中国北方未来50年土地利用变化模拟%Modelling scenarios of land use change in northern China in the next 50 years

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    何春阳; 李景刚; 史培军

    2005-01-01

    Modelling scenarios of land use change and their impacts in typical regions are helpful to investigate the mechanism between land use and ecological systems and process the land use allocation under the ecological security. A system dynamics (SD) model with the aim to modelling scenarios of land use change and assessing ecological impact in northern China in the next 50 years is developed here. The accuracy assessment with the historic data from 1990 to 2001 indicated the SD model is robust. After the different "what-if' scenarios controlled by GDP, population, market, and technology advancement were built, the different scenarios of land use change in northern China from 2000 to 2050 were simulated with their ecological impact assessed. The result suggested that such factors as GDP, population, market and technology have a strong relationship with land use structural change in northern China. It also indicated that such measures as strict controlling of population increase, importing some food to keep the supply-demand balance in the region, and improving agricultural technology will be the guarantee of regional sustainable development with fast economic growth and the obvious land use structural improvement at the same time.

  12. Modeling Effects of Climate Change and Fire Management on Western White Pine (Pinus monticola in the Northern Rocky Mountains, USA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert E. Keane

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is projected to profoundly influence vegetation patterns and community compositions, either directly through increased species mortality and shifts in species distributions or indirectly through disturbance dynamics such as increased wildfire activity and extent, shifting fire regimes, and pathogenesis. Mountainous landscapes have been shown to be particularly sensitive to climate changes and are likely to experience significant impacts under predicted future climate regimes. Western white pine (Pinus monticola, a five-needle pine species that forms the most diverse of the white pine forest cover types in the western United States, is vulnerable to an interacting suite of threats that includes climate change, fire suppression, white pine blister rust (Cronartium ribicola, and mountain pine beetles (Dendroctonus ponderosae that have already caused major changes in species distribution and abundance. We used the mechanistic simulation model FireBGCv2 to simulate effects of climate change and fire management on western white pines in a mountainous watershed in Glacier National Park, Montana, USA. Our results suggest that warming temperatures favor increased abundance of western white pine over existing climax and shade tolerant species in the study area, mainly because warmer conditions potentiate fire dynamics, including increased wildfire frequency and extent, which facilitates regeneration. Suppression of wildfires reduced the area dominated by western white pine, but fire suppression was less effective at limiting burned area extent and fire frequency in a warmer and drier climate. Wildfires created canopy gaps that allowed for western white pine regeneration at a high enough rate to escape local extirpation from white pine blister rust. Western white pine appears to be a resilient species even under fairly extreme warming trajectories and shifting fire regimes, and may provide a hedge against vegetation community shifts away

  13. Kinematic analysis of recent and active faults of the southern Umbria-Marche domain, Northern Apennines, Italy: geological constraints to geodynamic models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pasqui, Valeria; Viti, Marcello; Mantovani, Enzo

    2013-04-01

    The recent and active deformation that affects the crest zone of the Umbria-Marche belt (Northern Apennines, Italy) displays a remarkable extensional character, outlined by development of normal fault sets that overprint pre-existing folds and thrusts of Late Miocene-Early Pliocene age. The main extensional fault systems often bound intermontane depressions hosting recent, mainly continental, i.e. fluvial or lacustrine deposits, separating the latter from Triassic-Miocene, mainly carbonatic and siliciclastic marine rocks that belong to the Romagna-Umbria-Marche stratigraphic succession. Stratigraphic data indicate that the extensional strain responsible for the development of normal fault-bounded continental basins in the outer zones of the Northern Apennines was active until Middle Pleistocene time. Since Middle Pleistocene time onwards a major geodynamic change has affected the Central Mediterranean region, with local reorganization of the kinematics in the Adria domain and adjacent Apennine belt. A wide literature illustrates that the overall deformation field of the Central Mediterranean area is presently governed by the relative movements between the Eurasia and Africa plates. The complex interaction of the Africa-Adria and the Anatolian-Aegean-Balkan domains has led the Adria microplate to migrate NW-ward and to collide against Eurasia along the Eastern Southern Alps. As a consequence Adria is presently moving with a general left-lateral displacement with respect to the Apennine mountain belt. The sinistral component of active deformations is also supported by analysis of earthquake focal mechanisms. A comparison between geophysical and geological evidence outlines an apparent discrepancy: most recognized recent and active faults display a remarkable extensional character, as shown by the geometry of continental basin-bounding structutes, whereas geodetic and seismologic evidence indicates the persistency of an active strike-slip, left-lateral dominated

  14. Regional Equivalent Water Thickness Modeling from Remote Sensing across a Tree Cover/LAI Gradient in Mediterranean Forests of Northern Tunisia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hedia Chakroun

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available The performance of vegetation indexes derived from moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS sensors is explored for drought monitoring in the forests of Northern Tunisia; representing a transition zone between the Mediterranean Sea and the Sahara Desert. We investigated the suitability of biomass and moisture vegetation indexes for vegetation water content expressed by the equivalent water thickness (EWT in a Mediterranean forest ecosystem with contrasted water budgets and desiccation rates. We proposed a revised EWT at canopy level (EWTCAN based on weekly field measurements of fuel moisture in seven species during the 2010 dry period; considering the mixture of plant functional types for water use (trees; shrubs and herbaceous layers and a varying vegetation cover. MODIS vegetation indexes computed and smoothed over the dry season were highly correlated with the EWTCAN. The performances of moisture indexes (Normalized Difference Infrared Index (NDII6 and NDII7; and Global Moisture Vegetation Index (GVMI6 and GVMI7 were comparable; whereas; for biomass vegetation indexes; Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI; Modified Soil Adjusted Vegetation Index (MSAVI and Adjusted Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (ANDVI performed better than Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI and Soil Adjusted Vegetation Index (SAVI. We also identified the effect of Leaf Area Index (LAI on EWTCAN monitoring at the regional scale under the tree cover/LAI gradient of the region from relatively dense to open forest. Statistical analysis revealed a significant decreasing linear relationship; indicating that for LAI less than two; the greater the LAI; the less responsive are the vegetation indexes to changes in EWTCAN; whereas for higher LAI; its influence becomes less significant and was not considered in the inversion models based on vegetation indexes. The EWTCAN time-course from LAI-adapted inversion models; based on significantly-related vegetation

  15. Observations and modeling of air quality trends over 1990-2010 across the Northern Hemisphere: China, the United States and Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xing, J.; Mathur, R.; Pleim, J.; Hogrefe, C.; Gan, C.-M.; Wong, D. C.; Wei, C.; Gilliam, R.; Pouliot, G.

    2015-03-01

    Trends in air quality across the Northern Hemisphere over a 21-year period (1990-2010) were simulated using the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) multiscale chemical transport model driven by meteorology from Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) simulations and internally consistent historical emission inventories obtained from EDGAR. Thorough comparison with several ground observation networks mostly over Europe and North America was conducted to evaluate the model performance as well as the ability of CMAQ to reproduce the observed trends in air quality over the past 2 decades in three regions: eastern China, the continental United States and Europe. The model successfully reproduced the observed decreasing trends in SO2, NO2, 8 h O3 maxima, SO42- and elemental carbon (EC) in the US and Europe. However, the model fails to reproduce the decreasing trends in NO3- in the US, potentially pointing to uncertainties of NH3 emissions. The model failed to capture the 6-year trends of SO2 and NO2 in CN-API (China - Air Pollution Index) from 2005 to 2010, but reproduced the observed pattern of O3 trends shown in three World Data Centre for Greenhouse Gases (WDCGG) sites over eastern Asia. Due to the coarse spatial resolution employed in these calculations, predicted SO2 and NO2 concentrations are underestimated relative to all urban networks, i.e., US-AQS (US - Air Quality System; normalized mean bias (NMB) = -38% and -48%), EU-AIRBASE (European Air quality data Base; NMB = -18 and -54%) and CN-API (NMB = -36 and -68%). Conversely, at the rural network EU-EMEP (European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme), SO2 is overestimated (NMB from 4 to 150%) while NO2 is simulated well (NMB within ±15%) in all seasons. Correlations between simulated and observed O3 wintertime daily 8 h maxima (DM8) are poor compared to other seasons for all networks. Better correlation between simulated and observed SO42- was found compared to that for SO2. Underestimation of summer SO42- in

  16. Patterns and Dynamics of Rifting on Passive Continental Margin from Shelf to Slope of the Northern South China Sea:Evidence from 3D Analogue Modeling

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Sun Zhen; Zhou Di; Wu Shimin; Zhong Zhihong; Myra Keep; Jiang Jianqun; Fan Hao

    2009-01-01

    Affected by thermal perturbation due to mantle uprising,the rheological structure of the lithosphere could be modified,which could lead to different rifting patterns from shelf to slope in a passive continental margin.From the observed deformation style on the northern South China Sea and analogue modeling experiments,we find that the rift zone located on the shelf is characterized by half grabens or simple grabens controlled mainly by long faults with large vertical offset,supposed to be formed with normal lithasphere extension.On the slope,where the lithosphere is very hot due to mantle upwelling and heating,composite grabens composed of symmetric grabens developed.The boundary and inner faults are all short with small vertical offset.Between the zones with very hot and normal lithosphere,composite half grnbens composed of half grabens or asymmetric grabens formed,whose boundary faults are long with large vertical offset,while the inner faults are relatively short.Along with the thickness decrease of the brittle upper crust due to high temperature,the deformation becomes more sensitive to the shape of a pre-existing weakness zone and shows orientation variation along strike.When there was a bend in the pre-existing weakness zone,and the basal plate was pulled by a clockwise rotating stress,the strongest deformation always occurs along the middle segment and at the transition area from the middle to the eastern segments,which contributes to a hotter lithosphere in the middle segment,where the Baiyun (白云) sag formed.

  17. Impact of the Kuroshio intrusion on the nutrient inventory in the upper northern South China Sea: insights from an isopycnal mixing model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Du

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Based on four cruises covering a seasonal cycle in 2009–2011, we examined the impact of the Kuroshio intrusion, featured by extremely oligotrophic waters, on the nutrient inventory in the central northern South China Sea (NSCS. The nutrient inventory in the upper 100 m of the water column in the study area ranged from ∼200 to ∼290 mmol m−2 for N + N (nitrate plus nitrite, from ∼13 to ∼24 mmol m−2 for soluble reactive phosphate and from ∼210 to ∼430 mmol m−2 for silicic acid. The nutrient inventory showed a clear seasonal pattern with the highest value appearing in summer, while the N + N inventory in spring and winter had a reduction of ∼13 and ∼30%, respectively, relative to that in summer. To quantify the extent of the Kuroshio intrusion, an isopycnal mixing model was adopted to derive the proportional contribution of water masses from the SCS proper and the Kuroshio along individual isopycnal surfaces. The derived mixing ratio along the isopycnal plane was then employed to predict the genuine gradients of nutrients under the assumption of no biogeochemical alteration. These predicted nutrient concentrations, denoted as Nm, are solely determined by water mass mixing. Results showed that the nutrient inventory in the upper 100 m of the NSCS was overall negatively correlated to the Kuroshio water fraction, suggesting that the Kuroshio intrusion significantly influenced the nutrient distribution in the SCS and its seasonal variation. The difference between the observed nutrient concentrations and their corresponding Nm allowed us to further quantify the nutrient removal/addition associated with the biogeochemical processes on top of the water mass mixing. We revealed that the nutrients in the upper 100 m of the water column had a net consumption in both winter and spring but a net addition in fall.

  18. Impact of the Kuroshio intrusion on the nutrient inventory in the upper northern South China Sea: insights from an isopycnal mixing model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Du

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Based on four cruises covering a seasonal cycle in 2009–2011, we examined the impact of the Kuroshio intrusion, featured by extremely oligotrophic waters, on the nutrient inventory in the central northern South China Sea (NSCS. The nutrient inventory in the upper 100 m of the water column in the study area ranged from ∼200 to ∼290 mmol m−2 for N + N (nitrate plus nitrite, from ~ 13 to ∼24 mmol m−2 for soluble reactive phosphate and from ∼210 to ∼430 mmol m−2 for silicic acid. The nutrient inventory showed a clear seasonal pattern with the highest value appearing in summer, while the N + N inventory in spring and winter had a reduction of ∼13% and ∼30%, respectively, relative to that in summer. To quantify the extent of the Kuroshio intrusion, an isopycnal mixing model was adopted to derive the proportional contribution of water masses from the SCS proper and the Kuroshio along individual isopycnal surfaces. The derived mixing ratio along the isopycnal plane was then employed to predict the genuine gradients of nutrients under the assumption of no biogeochemical alteration. These predicted nutrient concentrations, denoted as Nm, are solely determined by water mass mixing. Results showed that the nutrient inventory in the upper 100 m of the NSCS was overall negatively correlated to the Kuroshio water fraction, suggesting that the Kuroshio intrusion significantly influenced the nutrient distribution in the SCS and its seasonal variation. The difference between the observed nutrient concentrations and their corresponding Nm allowed us to further quantify the nutrient removal/addition associated with the biogeochemical processes on top of the water mass mixing. We revealed that the nutrients in the upper 100 m of the water column had a net consumption in both winter and spring but a net addition in fall.

  19. Northern Dimension: Participant Strategies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Busygina Irina

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available This article is devoted to the “Northern Dimension” initiative of the EU which also includes North-West Russia, Norway and Iceland. It is noted that the “Northern Dimension” in the theoretical perspective can be considered as part of strategic multi-level interactions between member-states of the EU and Russia. On this basis, the authors analyze implications and effects of the strategic interdependence of all the EU-Russia relation levels.

  20. Towards understanding of the spatio-temporal composition of Terrestrial Water Storage variations in Northern Latitudes using a model-data fusion approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trautmann, Tina; Koirala, Sujan; Carvalhais, Nuno; Niemann, Christoph; Fink, Manfred; Jung, Martin

    2017-04-01

    Understanding variations in the terrestrial water storage (TWS) and its components is essential to gain insights into the dynamics of the hydrological cycle, and to assess temporal and spatial variations of water availability under global changes. We investigated spatio-temporal patterns of TWS variations and their composition in the humid regions of northern mid-to-high latitudes during 2001-2014 by using a simple hydrological model with few effective parameters. Compared to traditional modelling studies, our simple model was informed and constrained by multiple state-of-the-art earth observation products including TWS from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites (Wiese 2015), Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) from GlobSnow project (Loujous et al. 2014), evapotranspiration fluxes from eddy covariance measurements (Tramontana et al. 2016), and gridded runoff estimates for Europe (Gudmundsson & Seneviratne 2016). Thorough evaluation of model demonstrates that the model reproduces the observed patterns of hydrological fluxes and states well. The validated model results are then used to assess the contributions of snow pack, soil moisture and groundwater on the integrated TWS across spatial (local grid scale, spatially integrated) and temporal (seasonal, inter-annual) scales. Interestingly, our results show that TWS variations on different scales are dominated by different components. On both, seasonal and inter-annual time scales, the spatially integrated TWS signal mainly originates from dynamics of snow pack. On the local grid scale, mean seasonal TWS variations are driven by snow dynamics as well, whereas inter-annual variations are found to originate from soil moisture availability. Thus, we show that the determinants of TWS variations are scale-dependent, while coincidently underline the potential of model-data fusion techniques to gain insights into the complex hydrological system. References: Gudmundsson, L. and S. I. Seneviratne (2016

  1. Physical processes of thermokarst lakes in the continuous permafrost zone of northern Siberia – observations and modeling (Lena River Delta, Siberia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Boike

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available The thermal regimes of five lakes located within the continuous permafrost zone of northern Siberia (Lena River Delta have been investigated using hourly water temperature and water level records covering a three year period (2009–2012, together with bathymetric survey data. The lakes included thermokarst lakes located on Holocene river terraces that may be connected to Lena River water during spring flooding, and a thermokarst lake located on deposits of the Pleistocene Ice Complex. The data were used for numerical modeling with FLake software, and also to determine the physical indices of the lakes. The lakes vary in area, depths and volumes. The winter thermal regime is characterized by an ice cover up to 2 m thick that survives for more than 7 months of the year, from October until about mid-June. Lake-bottom temperatures increase at the start of the ice-covered period due to upward-directed heat flux from the underlying thawed sediment. The effects of solar radiation return prior to ice break-up, effectively warming the water beneath the ice cover and inducing convective mixing. Ice break-up starts the beginning of June and takes until the middle or end of June for completion. Mixing occurs within the entire water column from the start of ice break-up and continues during the ice-free periods, as confirmed by the Wedderburn numbers. Some of the lakes located closest to the Lena River are subjected to varying levels of spring flooding with river water, on an annual basis. Numerical modeling using FLake software indicates that the vertical heat flux across the bottom sediment tends towards an annual mean of zero, with maximum downward fluxes of about 5 W m−2 in summer and with heat released back into the water column at a~rate of less than 1 W m−2 during the ice-covered period. The lakes are shown to be efficient heat absorbers and effectively distribute the heat through mixing. Monthly bottom water temperatures during the ice

  2. Describing and analysing primary health care system support for chronic illness care in Indigenous communities in Australia's Northern Territory – use of the Chronic Care Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stewart Allison

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Indigenous Australians experience disproportionately high prevalence of, and morbidity and mortality from chronic illness such as diabetes, renal disease and cardiovascular disease. Improving the understanding of how Indigenous primary care systems are organised to deliver chronic illness care will inform efforts to improve the quality of care for Indigenous people. Methods This cross-sectional study was conducted in 12 Indigenous communities in Australia's Northern Territory. Using the Chronic Care Model as a framework, we carried out a mail-out survey to collect information on material, financial and human resources relating to chronic illness care in participating health centres. Follow up face-to-face interviews with health centre staff were conducted to identify successes and difficulties in the systems in relation to providing chronic illness care to community members. Results Participating health centres had distinct areas of strength and weakness in each component of systems: 1 organisational influence – strengthened by inclusion of chronic illness goals in business plans, appointment of designated chronic disease coordinators and introduction of external clinical audits, but weakened by lack of training in disease prevention and health promotion and limited access to Medicare funding; 2 community linkages – facilitated by working together with community organisations (e.g. local stores and running community-based programs (e.g. "health week", but detracted by a shortage of staff especially of Aboriginal health workers working in the community; 3 self management – promoted through patient education and goal setting with clients, but impeded by limited focus on family and community-based activities due to understaffing; 4 decision support – facilitated by distribution of clinical guidelines and their integration with daily care, but limited by inadequate access to and support from specialists; 5 delivery system

  3. Three-dimensional conductivity model of crust and uppermost mantle at the northern Trans North China Orogen: Evidence for a mantle source of Datong volcanoes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Huiqian; Huang, Qinghua; Zhao, Guoze; Guo, Zhen; Chen, Y. John

    2016-11-01

    While the Eastern Block of North China Craton (NCC) had experienced significant lithospheric destruction in the Mesozoic, the Western Block of NCC and the Trans North China Orogen (TNCO) have undergone localized lithospheric modification since the Cenozoic. The northern TNCO is highlighted by the Cenozoic magmatic activities including Hannuoba basalts and Datong volcanoes and is a seismically active region. In this study 3-D electrical conductivity model of the crust and uppermost mantle is derived by the 3-D inversion technique using data from 72 broadband magnetotelluric (MT) stations. The final model shows that a 15 km thick resistive layer of about 3000 Ω m dominates the upper crust, which may represent the intact Archean and Paleoproterozoic terrains. Whereas in the mid-crust there are marked high conductivity anomalies of about 10 Ω m beneath Shanxi rifting basin, which may result from the interconnected saline fluid of 0.2% to 6% volume fraction. The most important finding is that one significant conductor extended into the mantle is located between Hannuoba field and Datong volcanoes and it connects with the mid-crust conductor beneath the Datong volcanoes. We suggest that this could be the mantle source (partial melting region) for the Quaternary volcanic activities of Datong volcanoes and the melt fraction is estimated as 6.6%. Its location inside the Western Block suggests that the volcanic activities at Datong volcanoes are irrelevant to the tectonic process to the east of TNCO. It is likely to be related to the mantle flows from the Tibetan Plateau around the Ordos block which converges at the northeastern corner of the Ordos block and local upward flow along the slope of the thinning lithosphere resulted in decompression partial melting and the melt percolated upward through the crust to feed the lava eruptions at the Datong volcanoes to the east. Finally, large crustal earthquakes in this region are generally located in resistive zones with high

  4. Political Violence and Child Adjustment in Northern Ireland: Testing Pathways in a Social-Ecological Model Including Single- and Two-Parent Families

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cummings, E. Mark; Schermerhorn, Alice C.; Merrilees, Christine E.; Goeke-Morey, Marcie C.; Shirlow, Peter; Cairns, Ed

    2010-01-01

    Moving beyond simply documenting that political violence negatively impacts children, we tested a social-ecological hypothesis for relations between political violence and child outcomes. Participants were 700 mother-child (M = 12.1 years, SD = 1.8) dyads from 18 working-class, socially deprived areas in Belfast, Northern Ireland, including…

  5. Northern Hemisphere millennial-scale ice discharges as a response to oceanic forcing simulated with a hybrid ice-sheet/ice-shelf model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alvarez-Solas, J.; Montoya, M.; Robinson, A. J.; Banderas-Carreño, R.; Ritz, C.; Ganopolski, A.

    2012-04-01

    Marine and continental records and ice core data have revealed the existence of pronounced millennial time-scale climate variability during the last glacial cycle. Greenland ice core records show abrupt transitions known as Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events within decades from cold (stadial) to relatively warm (interstadial) conditions, followed by slow cooling that lasts several centuries and more rapid cooling through stadial conditions. Two types of explanation have been suggested: periodic external forcing and internal oscillations in the climate system, for which ocean circulation is the main candidate. On the other hand, six periods of extreme cooling registered in the Northern Hemisphere, known as Heinrich events, have been found to be coeval with increased deposition of ice-rafted debris, which is interpreted as enhanced discharge of icebergs into the North Atlantic Ocean. Recently, the coupled effects between ocean circulation and ice-sheets dynamics have been suggested to play a major role in triggering Heinrich events. This interpretation of Heinrich events responding to changes in the oceanic patterns (or at least not being purely internal and spontaneous manifestations of ice sheets), allows the possibility to provide an explicit relationship between DO events and the periodic iceberg surges. Here this hypothesis is reassessed within a more realistic modeling framework by forcing a 3D state-of-the-art ice-sheet model with the output of abrupt climate change simulations carried out with a coupled climate model of intermediate complexity. These show the main expected characteristics of such events: an abrupt warming of the North Atlantic and Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) intensification followed by a progressive cooling and AMOC reduction, as well as a more drastic fall into a stadial condition. Interestingly, stadial periods are characterized by the occurrence of subsurface oceanic warming of up to 3 K in regions where deep water

  6. Scenario-based climate change modelling for a regional permafrost probability model of the southern Yukon and northern British Columbia, Canada

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. P. Bonnaventure

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Scenario-based climate change modelling for equilibrium conditions was applied to a Regional Model of permafrost probability for the southern Yukon and northwestern British Columbia. Under a −1 K cooling scenario, permafrost area expands from 58% (present day of the 490 000 km2 to 76%, whereas warming scenarios of +1 K, +2 K and +5 K decrease the terrain underlain by permafrost to 38%, 24% and 9% respectively. The morphology of permafrost gain/loss under these scenarios is controlled by the Surface Lapse Rate (SLR, which varies across the region below and above treeline. The SLR is an air temperature elevation gradient that that is noticeably different across the study region. As a result of this attribute three distinct patterns of loss morphology can be identified. Areas that are more maritime exhibit SLRs characteristically similar above and below treeline resulting in low probabilities of permafrost in valley bottoms. Consequently, a loss front moves to upper elevations when warming scenarios are applied (Simple Unidirectional Spatial Loss. Areas where SLRs are gentle below treeline (but normal/negative and normal above treeline show lower permafrost probabilities with a loss front moving up mountain according to two separate SLRs (Complex Unidirectional Spatial Loss. Finally areas that display high continentally exhibit Bidirectional Spatial Loss where the loss front of lower permafrost probabilities moves up mountain above treeline and down mountain below treeline. Areas that are most affected by permafrost loss are zones with SLRs close to 0 K km−1 where permafrost is extensive, whereas the least susceptible areas to changes in MAAT are above treeline and are highly elevation dependent.

  7. Political violence and child adjustment in Northern Ireland: Testing pathways in a social ecological model including single and two-parent families

    OpenAIRE

    Cummings, E. Mark; Schermerhorn, Alice C.; Merrilees, Christine E.; Goeke-Morey, Marcie C.; Shirlow, Peter; Cairns, Ed

    2010-01-01

    Moving beyond simply documenting that political violence negatively impacts children, a social ecological hypothesis for relations between political violence and child outcomes was tested. Participants were 700 mother-child (M=12.1years, SD=1.8) dyads from 18 working class, socially deprived areas in Belfast, Northern Ireland, including single- and two-parent families. Sectarian community violence was associated with elevated family conflict and children’s reduced security about multiple aspe...

  8. New insights into the Middle Pleistocene paleoecology and paleoenvironment of the Northern Iberian Peninsula (Punta Lucero Quarry site, Biscay): A combined approach using mammalian stable isotope analysis and trophic resource availability modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Domingo, Laura; Rodríguez-Gómez, Guillermo; Libano, Iñaki; Gómez-Olivencia, Asier

    2017-08-01

    The northern coastal area of the Iberian Peninsula shows an excellent archaeo-paleontological record with a unique representation of Pleistocene mammalian fossils. While the Late Pleistocene is better recorded, the Middle Pleistocene record remains more fragmentary. The Punta Lucero site (Biscay) has yielded the most important fossil assemblage of the middle Middle Pleistocene for the northern Iberian Peninsula in both, number of identified specimens and taxonomic diversity. Punta Lucero constitutes a unique opportunity to evaluate Middle Pleistocene mammalian resource and habitat use, and trophic dynamics employing a combined approach: biogeochemical analysis and mathematical modeling. Stable isotope analysis points to resource partitioning between Punta Lucero cervids and bovids. Stable isotope analysis and trophic modeling evidence resource overlap and interspecific competition among predators, especially between the scimitar-toothed cat Homotherium latidens and the European jaguar Panthera gombaszoegensis. The trophic resource availability modeling assumes that Canis mosbachensis consumed a 20% of preys of more than 10 kg, mainly as carrion. Thus, while there would be a taxonomic overlap with those preys consumed by the large felids, the different strategy would have facilitated the coexistence of these canids with larger carnivores. Trophic modeling indicates a high competition among the predator guild. The potential presence of hominins in the area would have reached to an unsustainable situation. However, the potential presence of other prey species, such as Equus sp., would have made the ecosystem more sustainable. The methodology followed in this study highlights the potential of multidisciplinary approaches in the assessment of Pleistocene faunal dynamics.

  9. Potential soil organic carbon stocks in semi arid areas under climate change scenarios: an application of CarboSOIL model in northern Egypt

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muñoz-Rojas, Miriam; Abd-Elmabod, Sameh K.; Jordán, Antonio; Zavala, Lorena M.; Anaya-Romero, Maria; De la Rosa, Diego

    2014-05-01

    1. INTRODUCTION Climate change is predicted to have a large impact on semi arid areas which are often degraded and vulnerable to environmental changes (Muñoz-Rojas et al., 2012a; 2012b; 2013). However, these areas might play a key role in mitigation of climate change effects through sequestration of carbon in soils (United Nations, 2011). At the same time, increasing organic carbon in these environments could be beneficial for soil erosion control, soil fertility and, ultimately, food production (Lal, 2004). Several approaches have been carried out to evaluate climate change impacts on soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks, but soil carbon models are amongst the most effective tools to assess C stocks, dynamics and distribution and to predict trends under climate change scenarios (Jones et al., 2005 ). CarboSOIL is an empirical model based on regression techniques and developed to predict SOC contents at standard soil depths of 0 to 25, 25 to 50 and 50-75 cm (Muñoz-Rojas et al., 2013). CarboSOIL model has been designed as a GIS-integrated tool and is a new component of the agroecological decision support system for land evaluation MicroLEIS DSS (De la Rosa et al., 2004). 2. GENERAL METHODS In this research, CarboSOIL was applied in El-Fayoum depression, a semi arid region located in northern Egypt with a large potential for agriculture (Abd-Elmabod et al, 2012). The model was applied in a total of six soil-units classified according the USDA Soil Taxonomy system within the orders Entisols and Aridisols under different climate climate change scenarios. Global climate models based on the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (Agrawala at al., 2004) and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007) were applied to predict short-, medium- and long-term trends (2030, 2050 and 2100) of SOC dynamics and sequestration at different soil depths (0-25, 25-50 and 50-75) and land use types (irrigated areas, olive groves, wheat, cotton and other annual

  10. Petrology and geochemistry of the orbicular granitoid of Caldera, northern Chile. Models and hypotheses on the formation of radial orbicular textures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Díaz-Alvarado, Juan; Rodríguez, Natalia; Rodríguez, Carmen; Fernández, Carlos; Constanzo, Ítalo

    2017-07-01

    The orbicular granitoid of Caldera, located at the northern part of the Chilean Coastal Range, is a spectacular example of radial textures in orbicular structures. The orbicular body crops out as a 375 m2 tabular to lensoidal intrusive sheet emplaced in the Lower Jurassic Relincho pluton. The orbicular structures are 3-7 cm in diameter ellipsoids hosted in a porphyritic matrix. The orbicules are comprised by a Qtz-dioritic core (3-5 cm in diameter) composed by Pl + Hbl + Qtz + Bt ± Kfs with equiaxial textures and a gabbroic shell (2-3 cm in diameter) characterized by feathery and radiate textures with a plagioclase + hornblende paragenesis. The radial shell crystals are rooted and orthogonally disposed in the irregular contact with the core. The radial shell, called here inner shell, is in contact with the granodioritic equiaxial interorbicular matrix through a 2-3 mm wide poikilitic band around the orbicule (outer shell). The outer shell and the matrix surrounding the orbicules are characterized by the presence of large hornblende and biotite oikocrystals that include fine-grained rounded plagioclase and magnetite. The oikocrystals of both the outer shell and the matrix have a circumferential arrangement around the orbicule, i.e. orthogonal to the radial inner shell. The coarse-grained granodioritic interorbicular matrix present pegmatitic domains with large acicular hornblende and K-feldspar megacrysts. This work presents a review of the textural characteristics of the orbicules and a complete new mineral and whole-rock geochemical study of the different parts of the orbicular granitoid, together with thermobarometric and crystallographic data, and theoretical modeling of the crystallization and element partitioning processes. We propose a model for the formation of the orbicular radial textures consisting of several processes that are suggested to occur fast and consecutively: superheating, volatile exsolution, undercooling, geochemical fractionation and

  11. insurgents in Northern Uganda

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    and the rebel movements in northern Uganda, see Human Rights Watch 2003, and ... of Uganda enacted an Amnesty Act in 2000, and to date more than ten thousand ..... Amnesty Certificate, and then in theory, a package.20 In the case of former .... [H]uman rights obligations are contracted on an international level.

  12. Northern blotting analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Josefsen, Knud; Nielsen, Henrik

    2011-01-01

    Northern blotting analysis is a classical method for analysis of the size and steady-state level of a specific RNA in a complex sample. In short, the RNA is size-fractionated by gel electrophoresis and transferred by blotting onto a membrane to which the RNA is covalently bound. Then, the membran...

  13. Northern blotting analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Josefsen, Knud; Nielsen, Henrik

    2011-01-01

    is analysed by hybridization to one or more specific probes that are labelled for subsequent detection. Northern blotting is relatively simple to perform, inexpensive, and not plagued by artefacts. Recent developments of hybridization membranes and buffers have resulted in increased sensitivity closing...

  14. 1990 Northern, Iran Images

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A magnitude 7.7 earthquake occurred in the Gilan Province between the towns of Rudbar and Manjil in northern Iran on Thursday, June 21, 1990 (June 20 at 21:00 GMT)....

  15. 75 FR 32872 - Migratory Bird Hunting; Supplemental Proposals for Migratory Game Bird Hunting Regulations for...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-06-10

    ... alternatives for duck hunting seasons remain the same as those used in 2009. Service Response: As we stated in... Council Recommendations: The Atlantic Flyway Council recommended adoption of a derived Northern Pintail... usefulness of sex-specific regulations for pintails as a way to increase hunting opportunity on male...

  16. DS-777 Spatial Location of the Active and Inactive areas of the Model Boundary for the Northern High Plains Groundwater-Flow Model in Parts of Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, South Dakota, and Wyoming

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — This data set defines the boundary of the northern High Plains aquifer. It is one of many developed in support of The High Plains Groundwater Availability Project...

  17. Climatic variability, plant phenology, and northern ungulates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Post, E.; Stenseth, N.C. [Univ. of Oslo (Norway)

    1999-06-01

    Models of climate change predict that global temperatures and precipitation will increase within the next century, with the most pronounced changes occurring in northern latitudes and during winter. A large-scale atmospheric phenomenon, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), is a strong determinant of both interannual variation and decadal trends in temperatures and precipitation during winter in northern latitudes, and its recent persistence in one extreme phase may be a substantial component of increases in global temperatures. Hence, the authors investigated the influences of large-scale climatic variability on plant phenology and ungulate population ecology by incorporating the NAO in statistical analyses of previously published data on: (1) the timing of flowering by plants in Norway, and (2) phenotypic and demographic variation in populations of northern ungulates. The authors analyzed 137 time series on plant phenology for 13 species of plants in Norway spanning up to 50 yr and 39 time series on phenotypic and demographic traits of 7 species of northern ungulates from 16 populations in North America and northern Europe spanning up to 30 yr.

  18. Comparison of Northern Ireland radon maps based on indoor radon measurements and geology with maps derived by predictive modelling of airborne radiometric and ground permeability data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Appleton, J D; Miles, J C H; Young, M

    2011-03-15

    Publicly available information about radon potential in Northern Ireland is currently based on indoor radon results averaged over 1-km grid squares, an approach that does not take into account the geological origin of the radon. This study describes a spatially more accurate estimate of the radon potential of Northern Ireland using an integrated radon potential mapping method based on indoor radon measurements and geology that was originally developed for mapping radon potential in England and Wales. A refinement of this method was also investigated using linear regression analysis of a selection of relevant airborne and soil geochemical parameters from the Tellus Project. The most significant independent variables were found to be eU, a parameter derived from airborne gamma spectrometry measurements of radon decay products in the top layer of soil and exposed bedrock, and the permeability of the ground. The radon potential map generated from the Tellus data agrees in many respects with the map based on indoor radon data and geology but there are several areas where radon potential predicted from the airborne radiometric and permeability data is substantially lower. This under-prediction could be caused by the radon concentration being lower in the top 30 cm of the soil than at greater depth, because of the loss of radon from the surface rocks and soils to air. Copyright © 2011. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  19. A geochemical and geophysical approach to derive a conceptual circulation model of CO2-rich mineral waters: A case study of Vilarelho da Raia, northern Portugal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marques, J. M.; Santos, Monteiro; Graça, R. C.; Castro, R.; Aires-Barros, L.; Mendes Victor, L. A.

    2001-11-01

    The Vilarelho da Raia-Chaves region, located in northern Portugal adjacent to the Spanish border, is characterized by both hot and cold CO2-rich mineral waters issuing from springs and drilled wells. The present paper updates the conceptual circulation model of the Vilarelho da Raia cold CO2-rich mineral waters. Vilarelho da Raia mineral waters, dominated by Na and HCO3 ions, have formed mainly by interaction with CO2 of deep-seated mantle origin. The δ18O, δ2H and 3H values indicate that these waters are the result of meteoric waters infiltrating into Larouco Mountain, NW of Vilarelho da Raia, circulating at shallow depths in granitic rocks and moving into Vilarelho da Raia area. The conceptual geochemical and geophysical circulation model indicates that the hot and cold CO2-rich mineral waters of Chaves (76 °C) and Vilarelho da Raia (17 °C) should be considered manifestations of similar but not the same geohydrological systems. Résumé. La région de Vilarelho da Raia - Chaves, située au Portugal près de la frontière Espagnole, est caractérisée par des eaux carbogazeuses, chaudes et froides, émergeant à des sources et dans des puits. Ce travail constitue une mise au point du modèle conceptuel de circulation des eaux minérales carbogazeuses froides de Vilarelho da Raia. Les eaux minérales de Vilarelho da Raia, dans lesquelles les ions Na and HCO3 sont dominants, résultent principalement d'interactions avec du CO2 d'origine mantellique. Les δ18O, les δ2H, et les teneurs en 3H indiquent que ces eaux proviennent de l'infiltration d'eaux météoriques dans le Mont Larouco au NW de Vilarelho da Raia, circulant à faible profondeur dans les granites en direction de la région de Vilarelho da Raia. Le modèle de circulation géochimique et géophysique conduit à penser que les eaux minérales carbogazeuses chaudes et froides de Chaves (76 °C) et de Vilarelho da Raia (17 °C) doivent être considérées comme des manifestations de systèmes hydrog

  20. EAARL Coastal Topography - Northern Gulf of Mexico, 2007: First surface

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — A first surface elevation map (also known as a Digital Elevation Model, or DEM) of the northern Gulf of Mexico barrier islands and Naval Live Oaks was produced from...

  1. MAXIMUM RUNOFF OF THE FLOOD ON WADIS OF NORTHERN ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    lanez

    wadis in Northern Algeria, based on standard hydrometeorological data. ... Volume and reduction formulas in their base depend on single-mode floods, at that the .... The authors of present article realized operator model for calculation of the ...

  2. EAARL Coastal Topography - Northern Gulf of Mexico, 2007: Bare earth

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — A bare earth elevation map (also known as a Digital Elevation Model, or DEM) of the northern Gulf of Mexico barrier islands and Naval Live Oaks was produced from...

  3. EAARL Coastal Topography - Northern Gulf of Mexico, 2007: First surface

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — A first surface elevation map (also known as a Digital Elevation Model, or DEM) of the northern Gulf of Mexico barrier islands and Naval Live Oaks was produced from...

  4. EAARL Coastal Topography - Northern Gulf of Mexico, 2007: Bare earth

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — A bare earth elevation map (also known as a Digital Elevation Model, or DEM) of the northern Gulf of Mexico barrier islands and Naval Live Oaks was produced from...

  5. TSUNAMI HAZARD IN NORTHERN VENEZUELA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Theilen-Willige

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Based on LANDSAT ETM and Digital Elevation Model (DEM data derived by the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM, 2000 of the coastal areas of Northern Venezuela were investigated in order to detect traces of earlier tsunami events. Digital image processing methods used to enhance LANDSAT ETM imageries and to produce morphometric maps (such as hillshade, slope, minimum and maximum curvature maps based on the SRTM DEM data contribute to the detection of morphologic traces that might be related to catastrophic tsunami events. These maps combined with various geodata such as seismotectonic data in a GIS environment allow the delineation of coastal regions with potential tsunami risk. The LANDSAT ETM imageries merged with digitally processed and enhanced SRTM data clearly indicate areas that might be prone by flooding in case of catastrophic tsunami events.

  6. 华北地区棉铃虫对转Bt基因抗虫棉抗性适应的模拟模型%A simulation model for adaptation of cotton bollworm to transgenic Bt cotton in northern China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    茹李军; 赵建周; 芮昌辉

    2002-01-01

    通过对华北地区耕作制度和生态系统的了解,在充分考虑种群遗传学、生物学和人为操纵因子等三大因素的基础上,建立了一个预测棉铃虫对转Bt基因抗虫棉抗性适应的模拟模型.在华北地区典型的耕作制度下,如果所有棉田均为Bt棉,则Bt棉的预期寿命为7年;如果只有春播棉为Bt棉(约占棉田总面积的70%),则其寿命为10年.模型的灵敏度分析表明,Bt棉的使用寿命随抗性基因的显性度、初始抗性频率、Bt棉所占比例等因素的增长而迅速缩短.当Bt棉表达的杀虫蛋白量恰好全部杀死敏感基因型(GsGs)个体时,Bt棉的预期寿命最短.由于国外采用的"高剂量/庇护所"抗性治理策略不适用于棉铃虫及华北棉区的耕作制度,我国需要加强对其它抗性治理措施(如转双基因抗虫棉)的研究与应用.%The commercial use of transgenic cotton expressing an insecticidal protein gene from Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) began in 1998 in northern China. Resistance management is a major concern for the sustainable use of Bt cotton. With our understanding of the cropping and ecological system in northern China,we developed a simulation model to forecast adaptation of the cotton bollworm,Helicoverpa armigera ables of reproductive fitness on different host plants,dominance of resistance alleles,expression level of Bt toxin in cotton and use of insecticides in Bt cotton fields were included in the model. In the typical cropping system of northern China,the expected life of Bt cotton are seven years if all cotton is Bt cotton,and ten years if only spring planted cotton (about 70% total cotton area) is Bt cotton in northern China besed on the model. The life expectancy decreases quickly with increases in initial frequency of resistance allele,dominance of the resistance gene,and the percent area of Bt cotton planted. The results also showed that supplemental control is essential on Bt cotton when the expression of Bt

  7. Seismicity in Northern Germany

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bischoff, Monika; Gestermann, Nicolai; Plenefisch, Thomas; Bönnemann, Christian

    2013-04-01

    Northern Germany is a region of low tectonic activity, where only few and low-magnitude earthquakes occur. The driving tectonic processes are not well-understood up to now. In addition, seismic events during the last decade concentrated at the borders of the natural gas fields. The source depths of these events are shallow and in the depth range of the gas reservoirs. Based on these observations a causal relationship between seismicity near gas fields and the gas production is likely. The strongest of these earthquake had a magnitude of 4.5 and occurred near Rotenburg in 2004. Also smaller seismic events were considerably felt by the public and stimulated the discussion on the underlying processes. The latest seismic event occurred near Langwedel on 22nd November 2012 and had a magnitude of 2.8. Understanding the causes of the seismicity in Northern Germany is crucial for a thorough evaluation. Therefore the Seismological Service of Lower Saxony (NED) was established at the State Office for Mining, Energy and Geology (LBEG) of Lower Saxony in January 2013. Its main task is the monitoring and evaluation of the seismicity in Lower Saxony and adjacent areas. Scientific and technical questions are addressed in close cooperation with the Seismological Central Observatory (SZO) at the Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources (BGR). The seismological situation of Northern Germany will be presented. Possible causes of seismicity are introduced. Rare seismic events at greater depths are distributed over the whole region and probably are purely tectonic whereas events in the vicinity of natural gas fields are probably related to gas production. Improving the detection threshold of seismic events in Northern Germany is necessary for providing a better statistical basis for further analyses answering these questions. As a first step the existing seismic network will be densified over the next few years. The first borehole station was installed near Rethem by BGR

  8. The Northern Ontario School of Medicine: responding to the needs of the people and communities of Northern Ontario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strasser, Roger; Lanphear, Joel

    2008-12-01

    Northern Ontario, like many rural and remote regions around the world, has a chronic shortage of health professionals. Recognizing that medical graduates who have grown up in rural areas are more likely to practice in rural settings, the Government of Ontario, Canada established a new medical school with a social accountability mandate to contribute to improving the health of the peoples and communities of Northern Ontario. The Northern Ontario School of Medicine (NOSM) is a joint initiative of Laurentian University in Sudbury and Lakehead University in Thunder Bay, cities one thousand kilometers apart. The NOSM model of medical education is built on several recent educational developments including rural-based medical education, social accountability of medical education and electronic distance education. This paper describes these developments as background to presenting the Northern Ontario School of Medicine as a socially accountable, geographically distributed rural-based medical school. NOSM MD PROGRAM: The school actively seeks to recruit students for the MD program from Northern Ontario or similar northern, rural, remote, Aboriginal, and Francophone backgrounds. The holistic, cohesive curriculum is grounded in Northern Ontario and relies heavily on broadband electronic communications to support distributed, community engaged learning. Students, both in classroom and clinical settings, explore cases as if they were physicians in Northern Ontario communities. Clinical education takes place in a wide range of community and health service settings so that students can experience the diversity of communities and cultures in Northern Ontario. Although NOSM is still in the early stages of development, there are encouraging signs that the school's evidence-based model of medical education will be successful in developing a sustainable, community responsive health workforce for Northern Ontario.

  9. A revised subduction inception model to explain the Late Cretaceous, doubly vergent orogen in the pre-collisional western Tethys: evidences from the Northern Apennine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meneghini, Francesca; Marroni, Michele; Pandolfi, Luca

    2017-04-01

    Orogenic processes are widely demonstrated to be strongly controlled by inherited structures. The paleogeography of the converging margins, and the tectonic processes responsible for their configuration, will influence the location of subduction initiation, the distribution of deformation between upper and lower plate, the shape of the accretionary prism and of the subsequent orogeny, through controlling the development of single or doubly-vergent orogens, and, as a corollary, the modality of exhumation of metamorphosed units. The "alpine age" collisional belts of the Mediterranean area are characterized by tangled architectures derived from the overlapping of several deformation events related to a multiphase, long history that comprises not only the collision of continental margins, but that can be regarded as an heritage of both the rifting-related configuration of the continental margins, and the subduction-related structures. The Northern Apennines is a segment of these collisional belts that originated by the Late Cretaceous-Middle Eocene closure of the northern branch of the western Tethys, and the subsequent Late Eocene-Early Oligocene continental collision between the Europe and Adria plates. Due to a different configuration of the paired Adria and Europe continental margins, inherited from a rifting phase dominated by asymmetric, simple-shear kinematics, the Northern Apennines expose a complex groups of units, referred to as Ligurian Units, that record the incorporation into the subduction factory of either fragments of the Ligure-Piemontese oceanic domain (i.e. Internal Ligurian Units), and various portions of the thinned Adria margin (i.e. External Ligurian Units), describable as an Ocean-Continent Transition Zone (OCTZ). The structural relationships between these groups of Units are crucial for the definition of the pre-collisional evolution of the belt and have been the subject of big debates in the literature, together with the location and

  10. United Kingdom (Northern Ireland): Health system review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Neill, Ciaran; McGregor, Pat; Merkur, Sherry

    2012-01-01

    The political context within which Northern Irelands integrated health and social care system operates has changed since the establishment of a devolved administration (the Northern Ireland Assembly, set up in 1998 but suspended between 2002 and 2007). A locally elected Health Minister now leads the publicly financed system and has considerable power to set policy and, in principle, to determine the operation of other health and social care bodies. The system underwent major reform following the passing of the Health and Social Care (Reform) Act (Northern Ireland) in 2009. The reform maintained the quasi purchaser provider split already in place but reduced the number and increased the size of many of the bodies involved in purchasing (known locally as commissioning) and delivering services. Government policy has generally placed greater emphasis on consultation and cooperation among health and social care bodies (including the department, commissioners and care providers) than on competition. The small size of the population (1.8 million) and Northern Irelands geographical isolation from the rest of the United Kingdom provide a rationale for eschewing a more competitive model. Without competition, effective control over the system requires information and transparency to ensure provider challenge, and a body outside the system to hold it to account. The restoration of the locally elected Assembly in 2007 has created such a body, but it remains to be seen how effectively it will exercise accountability.

  11. 兰州南北两山生态环境建设决策支持模式初探%A New Decision Support Model Applied to Ecological Environment Construction in the Southern and Northern Mountains of Lanzhou City

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    尹振良; 肖洪浪; 邹松兵; 陆志翔; 许宝荣; 王万鹏; 钟芳

    2013-01-01

    Artificially ecological environment construction is the necessary approach to greening Lanzhou Cit-y due to fragile natural environment. This paper proposed a decision support model which was comprised of "decision support system" and "expert's knowledge". Based on introduction of the decision support model, we developed a decision support system for ecological environment construction in the southern and northern mountains of Lanzhou City. Through discussing the experimental results of the decision support system, a water conservancy scheme for ecological environment construction in the southern and northern mountains of Lanzhou City was presented as below: (1) Collecting rainwater for environmental construction in the area where the average annual rainfall exceeds 400 mm; (2) Operating irrigation in the area where the average annual rainfall is below 400 mm, and the irrigation amount equals to 200 mm rainfall. Furthermore, a planning map for ecological environment construction in the southern and northern mountains of Lanzhou City is demonstrated to assist decision makers.%兰州南北两山生态环境脆弱,自然状态下无法达到城市发展的绿化要求,必须进行生态环境建设.针对生态环境建设的决策困境,提出构建“决策支持系统+专家知识”的决策支持模式.在详细阐述此决策支持模式的基础上,以兰州南北两山作为研究案例,建立了兰州南北两山生态环境建设决策支持系统,通过该系统的试验结果讨论,最终给出兰州南北两山生态环境建设的两项用水措施建议,即:①在多年平均降雨量大于400 mm的区域进行人工集雨;②在多年平均降雨量小于400 mm的区域进行人工灌溉(灌溉量相当于200 mm降雨).最后