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Sample records for models northern pintail

  1. A model of the productivity of the northern pintail

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carlson, J.D.; Clark, W.R.; Klaas, E.E.

    1993-01-01

    We adapted a stochastic computer model to simulate productivity of the northern pintail (Anas acuta). Researchers at the Northern Prairie Wildlife Research Center of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service originally developed the model to simulate productivity of the mallard (A. platyrhynchos). We obtained data and descriptive information on the breeding biology of pintails from a literature review and from discussions with waterfowl biologists. All biological parameters in the productivity component of the mallard model (e.g, initial body weights, weight loss during laying and incubation, incubation time, clutch size, nest site selection characteristics) were compared with data on pintails and adjusted accordingly. The function in the mallard model that predicts nest initiation in response to pond conditions adequately mimicked pintail behavior and did not require adjustment.Recruitment rate was most sensitive to variations in parameters that control nest success, seasonal duckling survival rate, and yearling and adult body weight. We simulated upland and wetland habitat conditions in central North Dakota and compared simulation results with observed data. Simulated numbers were not significantly different from observed numbers of successful nests during wet, average, and dry wetland conditions. The simulated effect of predator barrier fencing in a study area in central North Dakota increased recruitment rate by an average of 18.4%. This modeling synthesized existing knowledge on the breeding biology of the northern pintail, identified necessary research, and furnished a useful tool for the examination and comparison of various management options.

  2. Northern Pintail Telemetry [ds231

    Data.gov (United States)

    California Natural Resource Agency — Using radio-telemetry, female northern pintail (Anas acuta) survival, distribution, and movements during late August-March in Central California were determined...

  3. Northern Pintail - Flight Path Telemetry [ds117

    Data.gov (United States)

    California Natural Resource Agency — North-south flight paths of radio-tagged female northern pintails were monitored in a section of Highway 152 near Los Banos, California during 4 and 11 November and...

  4. A modeling framework for integrated harvest and habitat management of North American waterfowl: Case-study of northern pintail metapopulation dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mattsson, Brady J.; Runge, M.C.; Devries, J.H.; Boomer, G.S.; Eadie, J.M.; Haukos, D.A.; Fleskes, J.P.; Koons, D.N.; Thogmartin, W.E.; Clark, R.G.

    2012-01-01

    We developed and evaluated the performance of a metapopulation model enabling managers to examine, for the first time, the consequences of alternative management strategies involving habitat conditions and hunting on both harvest opportunity and carrying capacity (i.e., equilibrium population size in the absence of harvest) for migratory waterfowl at a continental scale. Our focus is on the northern pintail (Anas acuta; hereafter, pintail), which serves as a useful model species to examine the potential for integrating waterfowl harvest and habitat management in North America. We developed submodel structure capturing important processes for pintail populations during breeding, fall migration, winter, and spring migration while encompassing spatial structure representing three core breeding areas and two core nonbreeding areas. A number of continental-scale predictions from our baseline parameterization (e.g., carrying capacity of 5.5 million, equilibrium population size of 2.9 million and harvest rate of 12% at maximum sustained yield [MSY]) were within 10% of those from the pintail harvest strategy under current use by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. To begin investigating the interaction of harvest and habitat management, we examined equilibrium population conditions for pintail at the continental scale across a range of harvest rates while perturbing model parameters to represent: (1) a 10% increase in breeding habitat quality in the Prairie Pothole population (PR); and (2) a 10% increase in nonbreeding habitat quantity along in the Gulf Coast (GC). Based on our model and analysis, a greater increase in carrying capacity and sustainable harvest was seen when increasing a proxy for habitat quality in the Prairie Pothole population. This finding and underlying assumptions must be critically evaluated, however, before specific management recommendations can be made. To make such recommendations, we require (1) extended, refined submodels with additional

  5. Foraging dives by post-breeding northern pintails

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Michael R.

    1983-01-01

    Dabbling ducks (Anatini), including Northern Pintails (Anas acuta), typically feed by “tipping-up” (Bellrose, Ducks, Geese, and Swans of North America, Stackpole Books, Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, 1976) in shallow water. Pintails are not as adapted for diving as members of Aythyini or Oxyurini (Catlett and Johnston, Comp. Biochem. Physiol. 47A:925-931, 1974); however, incidents of foraging dives by small numbers of pintails have been reported (Chapman et al., Br. Birds 52:60, 1959; Bourget and Chapdelaine, Wildfowl 26:55-57, 1975). This paper reports on forage diving by a flock of several hundred pintails. Ecological explanations are suggested to account for the behavior and comparisons with tip-up feeding are presented.

  6. September-March survival of female northern pintails radiotagged in San Joaquin Valley, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fleskes, J.P.; Jarvis, R.L.; Gilmer, D.S.

    2002-01-01

    To improve understanding of pintail ecology, we radiotagged 191 hatch-year (HY) and 228 after-hatch-year (AHY) female northern pintails (Anas acuta) in the San Joaquin Valley (SJV), and studied their survival throughout central California, USA, during September-March, 1991-1994. We used adjusted Akaike Information Criterion (AICc) values to contrast known-fate models and examine variation in survival rates relative to year, interval, wintering region (AJV, other central California), pintail age, body mass at capture, capture date, capture area, and radio type. The best-fitting model included only interval x year and age x body mass; the next 2 best-fitting models also included wintering region and capture date. Hunting caused 83% of the mortalities we observed, and survival was consistently lower during hunting than nonhunting intervals. Nonhunting and hunting mortality during early winter was highest during the 1991-1992 drought year. Early-winter survival improved during the study along with habitat conditions in the Grassland Ecological Area (EA), where most radiotagged pintails spent early winter. Survival was more closely related to body mass at capture for HY than AHY pintails, even after accounting for the later arrival (based on capture date) of HY pintails, suggesting HY pintails are less adept at improving their condition. Thus, productivity estimates based on harvest age ratios may be biased if relative vulnerability of HY and AHY pintails is assumed to be constant because fall body condition of pintails may vary greatly among years. Cumulative winter survival was 75.6% (95% CI = 68.3% to 81.7%) for AHY and 65.4% (56.7% to 73.1%) for HY female pintails. Daily odds of survival in the cotton-agriculture landscape of the SJV were -21.3% (-40.3% to +3.7%) lower than in the rice-agriculture landscape of the Sacramento Valley (SACV) and other central California areas. Higher hunting mortality may be 1 reason pintails have declined more in SJV than in SACV.

  7. Annual survival and site fidelity of northern pintails banded on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicolai, Christopher A.; Flint, Paul L.; Wege, Michael L.

    2005-01-01

    We banded northern pintails (Anas acuta; n = 13,645) at a single site on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta (YKD), Alaska, USA, from 1990 to 2001. We used recaptures from our site in combination with hunter recoveries to model annual survival, recovery rates, and fidelity to our capture location. Most recoveries (>90%) occurred in the Pacific Flyway with 64% reported from California's Central Valley. Our top candidate models allowed survival to vary by sex but not by age or year. Estimated annual survival was 77.6% (95% CI: 73.9-81.0%) for males and 60.2% (95% CI: 53.2-67.0%) for females. Reporting rates varied by age, sex, and year; estimates for adult males exceeded those for adult females by 3.5 times. Within sexes, reporting rates of hatch-year pintails exceeded those of adults. Estimated recovery rates were considerably lower than those estimated during the 1950s-1970s for winter banded pintails (Hestbeck 1993b), but there were no differences in survival rates. This suggests that changes in harvest regulations may not have influenced annual survival in this population. The propensity of banded pintails to return to our capture site (fidelity rate) varied between sexes and was positively correlated with water conditions in prairie Canada. Our estimates of fidelity rates varied from 77.4% to 87.2% for males and 89.8% to 94.3% for females. Our fidelity estimates suggest that some level of subpopulation structuring may exist for northern pintails. Additionally, our estimates of fidelity support previous observations of northern pintails overflying poor wetland habitat conditions on the Canadian prairies.

  8. Recreation economics to inform migratory species conservation: Case study of the northern pintail

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mattsson, Brady J.; Dubovsky, James A.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Bagstad, Kenneth J.; Goldstein, Joshua H.; Loomis, John B.; Diffendorfer, James E.; Semmens, Darius J.; Wiederholt, Ruscena; Lopez-Hoffman, Laura

    2018-01-01

    Quantification of the economic value provided by migratory species can aid in targeting management efforts and funding to locations yielding the greatest benefits to society and species conservation. Here we illustrate a key step in this process by estimating hunting and birding values of the northern pintail (Anas acuta) within primary breeding and wintering habitats used during the species’ annual migratory cycle in North America. We used published information on user expenditures and net economic values (consumer surplus) for recreational viewing and hunting to determine the economic value of pintail-based recreation in three primary breeding areas and two primary wintering areas. Summed expenditures and consumer surplus for northern pintail viewing were annually valued at $70M, and annual sport hunting totaled $31M (2014 USD). Expenditures for viewing ($42M) were more than twice as high than those for hunting ($18M). Estimates of consumer surplus, defined as the amount consumers are willing to pay above their current expenditures, were $15M greater for viewing ($28M) than for hunting ($13M). We discovered substantial annual consumer surplus ($41M) available for pintail conservation from birders and hunters. We also found spatial differences in economic value among the primary regions used by pintails, with viewing generally valued more in breeding regions than in wintering regions and the reverse being true for hunting. The economic value of pintail-based recreation in the Western wintering region ($26M) exceeded that in any other region by at least a factor of three. Our approach of developing regionally explicit economic values can be extended to other taxonomic groups, and is particularly suitable for migratory game birds because of the availability of large amounts of data. When combined with habitat-linked population models, regionally explicit values could inform development of more effective conservation finance and policy mechanisms to enhance

  9. Recreation economics to inform migratory species conservation: Case study of the northern pintail.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mattsson, Brady J; Dubovsky, James A; Thogmartin, Wayne E; Bagstad, Kenneth J; Goldstein, Joshua H; Loomis, John B; Diffendorfer, James E; Semmens, Darius J; Wiederholt, Ruscena; López-Hoffman, Laura

    2018-01-15

    Quantification of the economic value provided by migratory species can aid in targeting management efforts and funding to locations yielding the greatest benefits to society and species conservation. Here we illustrate a key step in this process by estimating hunting and birding values of the northern pintail (Anas acuta) within primary breeding and wintering habitats used during the species' annual migratory cycle in North America. We used published information on user expenditures and net economic values (consumer surplus) for recreational viewing and hunting to determine the economic value of pintail-based recreation in three primary breeding areas and two primary wintering areas. Summed expenditures and consumer surplus for northern pintail viewing were annually valued at $70M, and annual sport hunting totaled $31M (2014 USD). Expenditures for viewing ($42M) were more than twice as high than those for hunting ($18M). Estimates of consumer surplus, defined as the amount consumers are willing to pay above their current expenditures, were $15M greater for viewing ($28M) than for hunting ($13M). We discovered substantial annual consumer surplus ($41M) available for pintail conservation from birders and hunters. We also found spatial differences in economic value among the primary regions used by pintails, with viewing generally valued more in breeding regions than in wintering regions and the reverse being true for hunting. The economic value of pintail-based recreation in the Western wintering region ($26M) exceeded that in any other region by at least a factor of three. Our approach of developing regionally explicit economic values can be extended to other taxonomic groups, and is particularly suitable for migratory game birds because of the availability of large amounts of data. When combined with habitat-linked population models, regionally explicit values could inform development of more effective conservation finance and policy mechanisms to enhance

  10. Spring migration of Northern Pintails from Texas and New Mexico, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haukos, D.A.; Miller, M.R.; Orthmeyer, D.L.; Takekawa, John Y.; Fleskes, J.P.; Casazza, Michael L.; Perry, W.M.; Moon, J.A.

    2006-01-01

    We used satellite transmitters (platform transmitting terminals or PTTs) during 2002 and 2003 to document spring migration timing, routes, stopover sites, and nesting sites of adult female Northern Pintails (Anas acuta) from major wintering areas of the Gulf Coast (N = 20) and Playa Lakes Regions (PLR, N = 20) in Texas, and the Middle Rio Grande Valley, New Mexico (MRGV, N = 15). Some Pintails tagged in the MRGV continued movements into Mexico. Poor winter survival or PTT failure reduced sample size to 15 for PLR Pintails, 5 for Gulf Coast Pintails, and 11 for MRGV Pintails. Apparent winter survival was 66% lower for Texas Gulf Coast PTT-tagged Pintails than for those from the PLR and MRGV. Pintails from each area used different routes to their respective breeding grounds. PTT-tagged Pintails from the MRGV followed the Rio Grande Valley north to southern Colorado, before traveling on to the Dakotas and Canada or traveled northeast and joined the migration of PLR Pintails in Texas or Kansas. The latter made initial stops in Kansas, Nebraska, Colorado, or the Dakotas. Gulf Coast Pintails traveled through north-central Oklahoma or central Kansas. Pintails that had stopped first in Kansas or Nebraska tended to settle to nest in the United States. Wetland availability in the Prairie Pothole Region of the Northern Great Plains influenced nesting destinations of PTT-tagged Pintails, but individuals settled across a wide swath of northern North America. We did not detect any consistently-used spring staging areas. Therefore, negative impacts to any of the marked populations, or their wetland habitats, may have continental implications.

  11. Habitat selection by female northern pintails wintering in the Grassland Ecological Area, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fleskes, Joseph P.; Gilmer, David S.; Jarvis, Robert L.

    2004-01-01

    To determine relative importance of habitats available in the Grassland Ecological Area (GEA) to wintering female northern pintails, Anas acuta, we studied habitat use relative to availability (i.e., habitat selection) in the GEA during September through March, 1991-94 for 196 Hatch-Year (HY) and 221 After-Hatch-Year (AHY) female pintails that were radio tagged during August-early October in the GEA (n = 239), other San Joaquin Valley areas (n = 132), or other Central Valley areas (n = 46). Habitat availability and use varied among seasons and years, but pintails always selected shallow and, except on hunting days, open habitats. Swamp timothy, Heleochloa schoenoides, marsh was the most available, used, and selected habitat. Watergrass, Echinochloa crusgalli, marsh in the GEA was used less than available at night in contrast to previous studies in other SJV areas. Preferred late-winter habitats were apparently lacking in the GEA, at least relative to in the Sacramento Valley and Delta where most pintails moved to in December each year. Impacts on pintails of the increasing practice of managing marshes for increased emergent vegetation to attract other species should be monitored. Shallow, open habitats that produce seeds and invertebrates available to pintails in late winter would help maintain pintail abundance in the GEA.

  12. Distribution and movements of female northern pintails radiotagged in San Joaquin Valley, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fleskes, Joseph P.; Jarvis, Robert L.; Gilmer, David S.

    2002-01-01

    To improve understanding of northern pintail (Anas acuta) distribution in central California (CCA), we radiotagged 191 Hatch-Year (HY) and 228 After-Hatch-Year (AHY) female northern pintails during late August-early October, 1991-1993, in the San Joaquin Valley (SJV) and studied their movements through March each year. Nearly all (94.3%) wintered in CCA, but 5.7% went to southern California, Mexico, or unknown areas; all that went south left before hunting season. Of the 395 radiotagged pintails that wintered in CCA, 83% flew from the SJV north to other CCA areas (i.e., Sacramento Valley [SACV], Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta [Delta], Suisun Marsh, San Francisco Bay) during September-January; most went during December. Movements coincid- ed with start of hunting seasons and were related to pintail age, mass, capture location, study year, and weather. Among pintails with less than average mass, AHY individuals tended to leave the SJV earlier than HY individuals. Weekly distribution was similar among capture locations and years but a greater percentage of pintails radiotagged in Tulare Basin (south part of SJV) were known to have (10.3% vs. 0.9%) or probably (13.8% vs. 4.6%) wintered south of CCA than pintails radiotagged in northern SJV areas (i.e., Grassland Ecological Area [EA] and Mendota Wildlife Area [WA]). Also, a greater percentage of SJV pintails went to other CCA areas before hunting season in the drought year of 1991-1992 than later years (10% vs. 3-5%). The percent of radiotagged pintails from Grass- land EA known to have gone south of CCA also was greater during 1991-1992 than later years (2% vs. 0%), but both the known (19% vs. 4%) and probable (23% vs. 12%) percent from Tulare Basin that went south was greatest during 1993-1994, when availability of flooded fields there was lowest. The probability of pintails leaving the SJV was 57% (95% CI = 8-127%) greater on days with than without rain, and more movements per bird out of SJV occurred in years

  13. Comparative ability of northern pintails, gadwalls, and northern shovelers to metabolize foods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, M.R.

    1984-01-01

    Feeding trials were used to compare the ability of northern pintails (Anas acuta), gadwalls (A. strepera), and northern shovelers (A. clypeata) to metabolize energy from a turkey starter ration, alfalfa pellets, and common barnyardgrass (Echinochloa crusgalli) seeds. No differences (P > 0.05) were detected among the three species for any of the three foods (kg body weight/day basis), for dry matter intake (DMI), body weight gain (BWG), apparent metabolizable energy (AME), or metabolized energy (MEE) on any given diet consumed in quantities large enough to promote body weight gain. The AME content of alfalfa was 57% less than the value for turkey starter and 50% less than for barnyardgrass seeds. All three species metabolized more energy and gained weight faster when fed turkey starter. Energy modeling may be facilitated if additional research verifies that all species of dabbling ducks have equal ability to obtain energy from foods available to them in the wild. Behavioral and morphological factors may be more important in defining feeding niches than digestive physiology, at least for the three duck species tested, at the time of year of the experiments, and within the limits of the quality of foods used.

  14. Renesting ecology of northern pintails on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grand, James B.; Flint, Paul L.

    1996-01-01

    We used radio telemetry to study renesting by wild, free-ranging Northern Pintails (Anas acuta) on the coastal Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta in 1994 and 1995. Fifty-six percent of females (n = 39) renested at least once. Propensity to renest declined among females that initiated later first nests. Renesting interval was not related to female weight, year, or initiation date of first nests. Mean interval between first and second nests was 11.4 ± 1.0 days, and mean interval between second and third nests was 11.3 ± 1.5 days. Median distance observed between first and second nest attempts was 276 m (range 33-6,098 m). Clutch size declined 2.3 ± 0.4 eggs between first and second nests. Weight of females captured on first nests in early incubation declined with nest initiation date. Our results suggest that food availability does not limit renesting ability of pintails in coastal tundra.

  15. Feeding ecology of northern pintails and green-winged teal wintering in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Euliss, Ned H.; Harris, Stanley W.

    1987-01-01

    The feeding ecology of northern pintails (Anas acuta) and green-winged teal (A. crecca) was examined from October through February 1979-81 in 4 major seasonal marsh types in the Central Valley, California. The esophagi of 262 pintails contained 72.3% plant seeds and 27.7% animal matter. The esophagi of 173 green-winged teal contained 62.3% plant seeds and 37.6% animal matter. Swamp timothy (Heleochloa schoenoides) caryopses, chironomid midge larvae, and common barnyardgrass (Echinochloa crusgalli) caryopses formed >50% of the diet of both species. Both species were highly opportunistic and generally shifted their food habits seasonally to the most available foods. Animal matter increased seasonally in the diets of both and formed about 60% of the foods eaten during January and February compared to only about 8% in October and 17% in December. Both species used open water marsh habitats almost exclusively in daytime but they used densely vegetated marshes almost exclusively at night. Management recommendations based on the food habits and habitat use patterns of pintails and green-winged teal are offered.

  16. Replacement cost valuation of Northern Pintail (Anas acuta) subsistence harvest in Arctic and sub-Arctic North America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldstein, Joshua H.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Bagstad, Kenneth J.; Dubovsky, James A.; Mattsson, Brady J.; Semmens, Darius J.; López-Hoffman, Laura; Diffendorfer, James E.

    2014-01-01

    Migratory species provide economically beneficial ecosystem services to people throughout their range, yet often, information is lacking about the magnitude and spatial distribution of these benefits at regional scales. We conducted a case study for Northern Pintails (hereafter pintail) in which we quantified regional and sub-regional economic values of subsistence harvest to indigenous communities in Arctic and sub-Arctic North America. As a first step, we used the replacement cost method to quantify the cost of replacing pintail subsistence harvest with the most similar commercially available protein (chicken). For an estimated annual subsistence harvest of ˜15,000 pintail, our mean estimate of the total replacement cost was ˜$63,000 yr−1 ($2010 USD), with sub-regional values ranging from \\$263 yr−1 to \\$21,930 yr−1. Our results provide an order-of-magnitude, conservative estimate of one component of the regional ecosystem-service values of pintails, providing perspective on how spatially explicit values can inform migratory species conservation.

  17. Antibodies to H5 subtype avian influenza virus and Japanese encephalitis virus in northern pintails (Anas acuta) sampled in Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramey, Andy M.; Spackman, Erica; Yeh, Jung-Yong; Fujita, Go; Konishi, Kan; Reed, John A.; Wilcox, Benjamin R.; Brown, Justin D.; Stallknecht, David E.

    2013-01-01

    Blood samples from 105 northern pintails (Anas acuta) captured on Hokkaido, Japan were tested for antibodies to avian influenza virus (AIV), Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV), and West Nile virus (WNV) to assess possible involvement of this species in the spread of economically important and potentially zoonotic pathogens. Antibodies to AIV were detected in 64 of 105 samples (61%). Of the 64 positives, 95% and 81% inhibited agglutination of two different H5 AIV antigens (H5N1 and H5N9), respectively. Antibodies to JEV and WNV were detected in five (5%) and none of the samples, respectively. Results provide evidence for prior exposure of migrating northern pintails to H5 AIV which couldhave implications for viral shedding and disease occurrence. Results also provide evidence for limited involvement of this species in the transmission and spread of flaviviruses during spring migration.

  18. Breeding-season sympatry facilitates genetic exchange among allopatric wintering populations of Northern Pintails in Japan and California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flint, Paul L.; Ozaki, Kiyoaki; Pearce, John M.; Guzzetti, Brian; Higuchi, Hiroyoshi; Fleskes, Joseph P.; Shimada, Tetsuo; Derksen, Dirk V.

    2009-01-01

    The global redistribution of pathogens, such as highly pathogenic avian influenza, has renewed interest in the connectivity of continental populations of birds. Populations of the Northern Pintail (Anas acuta) wintering in Japan and California are considered separate from a management perspective. We used data from band recoveries and population genetics to assess the degree of biological independence of these wintering populations. Distributions of recoveries in Russia of Northern Pintails originally banded during winter in North America overlapped with distributions of Northern Pintails banded during winter in Japan. Thus these allopatric wintering populations are partially sympatric during the breeding season. The primary areas of overlap were along the Chukotka and Kamchatka peninsulas in Russia. Furthermore, band recoveries demonstrated dispersal of individuals between wintering populations both from North America to Japan and vice versa. Genetic analyses of samples from both wintering populations showed little evidence of population differentiation. The combination of banding and genetic markers demonstrates that these two continental populations are linked by low levels of dispersal as well as likely interbreeding in eastern Russia. Although the levels of dispersal are inconsequential for population dynamics, the combination of dispersal and interbreeding represents a viable pathway for exchange of genes, diseases, and/or parasites.

  19. Selection of flooded agricultural fields and other landscapes by female northern pintails wintering in Tulare Basin, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fleskes, Joseph P.; Jarvis, Robert L.; Gilmer, David S.

    2003-01-01

    Habitat selection and use are measures of relative importance of habitats to wildlife and necessary information for effective wildlife conservation. To measure the relative importance of flooded agricultural fields and other landscapes to northern pintails (Anas acuta) wintering in Tulare Basin (TB), California, we radiotagged female pintails during late August-early October, 1991-1993 in TB and other San Joaquin Valley areas and determined use and selection of these TB landscapes through March each year. Availability of landscape and field types in TB changed within and among years. Pintail use and selection (based upon use-to-availability log ratios) of landscape and field types differed among seasons, years, and diel periods. Fields flooded after harvest and before planting (i.e., pre-irrigated) were the most available, used, and selected landscape type before the hunting season (Prehunt). Safflower was the most available, used, and-except in 1993, when pre-irrigated fallow was available-selected pre-irrigated field type during Prehunt. Pre-irrigated barley-wheat received 19-22% of use before hunting season, but selection varied greatly among years and diel periods. During and after hunting season, managed marsh was the most available, used, and, along with floodwater areas, selected landscape type; pre-irrigated cotton and alfalfa were the least selected field types and accounted for <13% of pintail use. Agricultural drainwater evaporation ponds, sewage treatment ponds, and reservoirs accounted for 42-48% of flooded landscape available but were little used and least selected. Exodus of pintails from TB coincided with drying of pre-irrigated fallow, safflower, and barley-wheat fields early in winter, indicating that preferred habitats were lacking in TB during late winter. Agriculture conservation programs could improve TB for pintails by increasing flooding of fallow and harvested safflower and grain fields. Conservation of remaining wetlands should concentrate

  20. Northern Pintail (Anas acuta survival, recovery, and harvest rates derived from 55 years of banding in Prairie Canada, 1960-2014

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Blake A. Bartzen

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Northern Pintail (Anas acuta; hereafter pintail experienced a significant population decline in North America in the 1980s but did not rebound to the previous population level the way that other prairie dabbling duck species (Anas spp. did once habitat conditions improved. Although the population decline occurred throughout the breeding range of pintails, the decline was most pronounced and sustained in Prairie Canada, i.e., southern Alberta and Saskatchewan. Thus, we estimated and examined annual survival, recovery, and harvest rates of pintails banded in Prairie Canada from 1960-2014. Annual survival rates varied by sex but were relatively high compared to those of other dabbling duck species and increased slightly over the study period to end at 0.64 ± 0.13 (SE and 0.74 ± 0.10 for females and males, respectively. Recovery and harvest rates varied over time but generally declined in the 1980s and increased from the early 1990s until the end of the study period. There was no clear evidence that hunting bag limit restrictions affected annual survival, recovery, or harvest rates. In addition, we could find no compelling evidence that harvest mortality was substantially additive to nonharvest mortality for pintails. However, we could not definitively ascertain the effects of the restrictions, and we suggest that a trial basis of liberalized hunting bag limits would do much to improve the understanding of harvest and population dynamics of pintails and pose little risk to the population. Based on our results, we believe that measures other than harvest restrictions will likely have to be taken to elevate the pintail population to the North American Waterfowl Management Plan objective.

  1. Evaluation of blood and muscle tissues for molecular detection and characterization of hematozoa infections in northern pintails (Anas acuta) wintering in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramey, Andy M.; Schmutz, Joel A.; Fleskes, Joseph P.; Yabsley, Michael J.

    2013-01-01

    Information on the molecular detection of hematozoa from different tissue types and multiple years would be useful to inform sample collection efforts and interpret results of meta-analyses or investigations spanning multiple seasons. In this study, we tested blood and muscle tissue collected from northern pintails (Anas acuta) during autumn and winter of different years to evaluate prevalence and genetic diversity ofLeucocytozoon, Haemoproteus, and Plasmodium infections in this abundant waterfowl species of the Central Valley of California. We first compared results for paired blood and wing muscle samples to assess the utility of different tissue types for molecular investigations of haemosporidian parasites. Second, we explored inter-annual variability of hematozoa infection in Central Valley northern pintails and investigated possible effects of age, sex, and sub-region of sample collection on estimated parasite detection probability and prevalence. We found limited evidence for differences between tissue types in detection probability and prevalence ofLeucocytozoon, Haemoproteus, and Plasmodium parasites, which supports the utility of both sample types for obtaining information on hematozoan infections. However, we detected 11 haemosporidian mtDNA cyt bhaplotypes in blood samples vs. six in wing muscle tissue collected during the same sample year suggesting an advantage to using blood samples for investigations of genetic diversity. Estimated prevalence ofLeucocytozoon parasites was greater during 2006–2007 as compared to 2011–2012 and four unique haemosporidian mtDNA cyt b haplotypes were detected in the former sample year but not in the latter. Seven of 15 mtDNA cyt b haplotypes detected in northern pintails had 100% identity with previously reported hematozoa lineages detected in waterfowl (Haemoproteus and Leucocytozoon) or other avian taxa (Plasmodium) providing support for lack of host specificity for some parasite lineages.

  2. Feeding ecology of pintail hens during reproduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krapu, G.L.

    1974-01-01

    Food supply has been acknowledged as one of eight major external factors regulating the sexual cycles of birds (Marshall 1961). Several hypotheses have been advanced to explain the role of food supply as an ultimate factor regulating breeding (Marshall 1951; Lack 1954, 1968; Wynne-Edwards 1962; and others). Another potential influence of food is its being a proximate stimulus to breeding. When certain foods become available they may act as a stimulus as the female requires them to meet her dietary needs during egg formation. Lack (1966a: 24) suggested that the average date of laying by the Great Tit (Parus major) probably resulted from a correlation between spring temperatures and the time of appearance of the insect foods the adult females need to form eggs. He also cited other passerines whose breeding was affected by food supply available to the female. In waterfowl it has been suggested that laying females require invertebrate foods (Moyle 1961, Leitch 1964). If true, this implies that the timing of laying is influenced by those environmental changes that affect food supply.The Pintail (Anas acuta) lives primarily on plant foods during much of the year (Martin et al. 1951); thus a study of feeding ecology during the nesting season provided an opportunity to evaluate the significance of an invertebrate food source to females during the period of egg formation. Marshall (1951) stated that essentially vegetarian species appear compelled to switch at least partially to a heavier protein diet when feeding their developing young. Production of a clutch of eggs, like tissue growth in the young, requires a special dietary need that presumably should be reflected in the diet of vegetarian species during the period that eggs are being formed. This paper describes the diet of the female Pintail prior to, during, and after laying and discusses the impact of certain environmental and physiological changes on Pintail breeding.

  3. Foods of breeding pintails in North Dakota

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krapu, G.L.

    1974-01-01

    Food habits of breeding pintails (Anas acuta) were studied relative to sex, land use, and reproductive condition during the spring and summer of 1969, 1970, and 1971 in eastern North Dakota. Hens and drakes, respectively, consumed 79.2 percent and 30.0 percent animal matter on nontilled wetlands and consumed 16.6 percent and 1.1 percent animal matter on tilled wetlands. Aquatic dipterans (primarily larval forms), snails, fairy shrimp, and earthworms accounted for 71 percent of the diet of hens on nontilled wetlands, while barnyard grass (Echinochloa crusgalli) seeds formed 71 percent of the diet of hens on tilled wetlands. Cereal grain seeds formed 84 percent of the diet of 10 hens feeding on cropland. The diet of hens was influenced by reproductive status. Animal foods were predominant during the laying period (77.1 percent) but were less important in the postlaying diet (28.9 percent). Invertebrates formed 83.9 percent of the diet of renesting hens, 61.0 percent were dipteran larvae and snails. High consumption of animal foods during egg formation presumably is related to invertebrates being superior to plants in providing certain nutrients required for production of viable eggs. Research findings suggest that food requirements of prairie-nesting pintails can be met most effectively by providing pairs access to shallow, nontilled wetland habitat subject to periodic drawdowns.

  4. Survival of female white-cheeked pintails during brood rearing in Puerto Rico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lopez-Flores, Marisel; Davis, J. Brian; Vilella, Francisco; Kaminski, Richard M.; Cruz-Burgos, José A.; Lancaster, Joseph D.

    2014-01-01

    Anas bahamensis (White-cheeked Pintail) is widely distributed across the Caribbean islands and South America. The species is classified as threatened in Puerto Rico and a species of least concern across most of its range. Little demographic data exist for the species, particularly during the breeding season. During 2000-2002, we radiomarked 31 incubating females at the Humacao Nature Reserve (Humacao) in southeastern Puerto Rico and estimated daily and interval survival rates of females during brood rearing. Only one of 31 birds died; the average ±95% CI daily survival rate of pintails was 0.998 ± 0.989-0.999 for all years, and interval survival was 0.913 ± 0.527-0.987 for a 60-day brood-rearing period. High survival of females suggests their mortality during brood rearing does not influence White-cheeked Pintail populations at Humacao, but further studies of reproductive and annual ecology are needed.

  5. Progress towards a lightning ignition model for the Northern Rockies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paul Sopko; Don Latham

    2010-01-01

    We are in the process of constructing a lightning ignition model specific to the Northern Rockies using fire occurrence, lightning strike, ecoregion, and historical weather, NFDRS (National Fire Danger Rating System), lightning efficiency and lightning "possibility" data. Daily grids for each of these categories were reconstructed for the 2003 fire season (...

  6. Representation of Northern Hemisphere winter storm tracks in climate models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Greeves, C.Z.; Pope, V.D.; Stratton, R.A.; Martin, G.M. [Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Exeter (United Kingdom)

    2007-06-15

    Northern Hemisphere winter storm tracks are a key element of the winter weather and climate at mid-latitudes. Before projections of climate change are made for these regions, it is necessary to be sure that climate models are able to reproduce the main features of observed storm tracks. The simulated storm tracks are assessed for a variety of Hadley Centre models and are shown to be well modelled on the whole. The atmosphere-only model with the semi-Lagrangian dynamical core produces generally more realistic storm tracks than the model with the Eulerian dynamical core, provided the horizontal resolution is high enough. The two models respond in different ways to changes in horizontal resolution: the model with the semi-Lagrangian dynamical core has much reduced frequency and strength of cyclonic features at lower resolution due to reduced transient eddy kinetic energy. The model with Eulerian dynamical core displays much smaller changes in frequency and strength of features with changes in horizontal resolution, but the location of the storm tracks as well as secondary development are sensitive to resolution. Coupling the atmosphere-only model (with semi-Lagrangian dynamical core) to an ocean model seems to affect the storm tracks largely via errors in the tropical representation. For instance a cold SST bias in the Pacific and a lack of ENSO variability lead to large changes in the Pacific storm track. Extratropical SST biases appear to have a more localised effect on the storm tracks. (orig.)

  7. Modeling Forest Succession among Ecological Land Units in Northern Minnesota

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    George Host

    1998-12-01

    Full Text Available Field and modeling studies were used to quantify potential successional pathways among fine-scale ecological classification units within two geomorphic regions of north-central Minnesota. Soil and overstory data were collected on plots stratified across low-relief ground moraines and undulating sand dunes. Each geomorphic feature was sampled across gradients of topography or soil texture. Overstory conditions were sampled using five variable-radius point samples per plot; soil samples were analyzed for carbon and nitrogen content. Climatic, forest composition, and soil data were used to parameterize the sample plots for use with LINKAGES, a forest growth model that simulates changes in composition and soil characteristics over time. Forest composition and soil properties varied within and among geomorphic features. LINKAGES simulations were using "bare ground" and the current overstory as starting conditions. Northern hardwoods or pines dominated the late-successional communities of morainal and dune landforms, respectively. The morainal landforms were dominated by yellow birch and sugar maple; yellow birch reached its maximum abundance in intermediate landscape positions. On the dune sites, pine was most abundant in drier landscape positions, with white spruce increasing in abundance with increasing soil moisture and N content. The differences in measured soil properties and predicted late-successional composition indicate that ecological land units incorporate some of the key variables that govern forest composition and structure. They further show the value of ecological classification and modeling for developing forest management strategies that incorporate the spatial and temporal dynamics of forest ecosystems.

  8. Numerical modelling of an oil spill in the northern Adriatic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marin Paladin

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Hypothetical cases of oil spills, caused by ship failure in the northern Adriatic, are analysed with the aim of producing three-dimensional models of sea circulation and oil contaminant transport. Sea surface elevations, sea temperature and salinity fields are applied as a forcing argument on the model's open boundaries.The Aladin-HR model with a spatial resolution of 8 km and a time interval of 3 hours is used for atmospheric forcing. River discharges along the coastline in question are introduced as point source terms and are assumed to have zero salinity at their respective locations. The results of the numerical modelling of physical oceanography parameters are validated by measurements carried out in the ‘Adriatic Sea monitoring programme’ in a series of current meter and CTD stations in the period from 1 January 2008 to 15 November 2008.The oil spill model uses the current field obtained from a circulation model.Besides the convective dispersive transport of oil pollution (Lagrangian model of discrete particles, the model takes into account a number of reactive processes such as emulsification, dissolution, evaporation and heat balance between the oil,sea and atmosphere. An actual event took place on 6 February 2008,when the ship `Und Adriyatik' caught fire in the vicinity of the town of Rovinj (Croatia en route from Istanbul (Turkey to Trieste (Italy. At the time the fire broke out, the ship was carrying around 800 tons of oil. Thanks to the rapid intervention of the firedepartment, the fire was extinguished during the following 12 hours,preventing possible catastrophic environmental consequences. Based on this occurrence, five hypothetical scenarios of ship failure with a consequent spill of 800 tons of oil over 12 hours were analysed. The main distinction between the simulated scenarios is the time of the start of the oil spill, corresponding to the times when stronger winds were blowing (>7 m s-1 with a minimum duration of 24 h

  9. LBA-ECO LC-01 SRTM 90-Meter Digital Elevation Model, Northern Ecuadorian Amazon

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This data set, LBA-ECO LC-01 SRTM 90-Meter Digital Elevation Model, Northern Ecuadorian Amazon, provides 90-meter resolution Digital Elevation Model data used in the...

  10. Modeling Fuel Choice among Households in Northern Cameroon

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jean Hugues Nlom

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available The present study aims to explore economic and socio-demographic factors that influence a household’s probability to switch from firewood to cleaner fuels (kerosene and LPG in northern Cameroon. The paper employs an ordered probit model to construct cooking patterns and fuel choices. Three main cooking sources are considered: firewood, kerosene, and liquefied petroleum gas. Utilized data are derived from a national survey conducted in 2004 by the Cameroonian National Institute of Statistics. The study analyzes the data related to the Sudano-Sahelian agro-ecological zone, which is one of the most affected by land degradation and decertification. While results indicate that there is a potential for a transition from traditional to cleaner fuels in the studied region, this transition is still in its earlier stage. The research demonstrates that firewood and kerosene prices, age of household heads, educational level of household heads and willingness to have a gas cylinder, as well as type of dwelling have a statistically significant impact on fuel-switching decisions.

  11. A model of trophic flows in the northern Benguela upwelling system during the 1980s

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Shannon, L.J.; Jarre, Astrid

    1999-01-01

    A model of trophic flows through the northern Benguela between 1980 and 1989 was constructed using the ECOPATH approach. The model serves to close the temporal gap between models of the system for the 1970s and 1990s. The aim is to provide a workable model, with the intention of encouraging...... in the northern Benguela during the 1980s was high, comparable to that of the Peruvian system in the 1960s and almost double that of the northern Benguela during the 1970s. Horse mackerel and hake catches were both high, with fishing on hake being ecologically more expensive. Biomass of benthic producers, meio...

  12. Modelling the Main Ionospheric Trough Across the Northern Hemisphere

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Mitchell, Cathryn

    2004-01-01

    This report results from a contract tasking University of Bath as follows: The contractor will investigate disturbances in the Northern Hemisphere ionosphere using a Multi-instrument data analysis (MIDAS) imaging algorithm...

  13. Parameter sensitivity and identifiability for a biogeochemical model of hypoxia in the northern Gulf of Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Local sensitivity analyses and identifiable parameter subsets were used to describe numerical constraints of a hypoxia model for bottom waters of the northern Gulf of Mexico. The sensitivity of state variables differed considerably with parameter changes, although most variables ...

  14. Alaska Northern Fur Seal Foraging Habitat Model Stable Isotope Data, 2006-2008

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — These data sets were used by Zeppelin et al. (2015) to model northern fur seal foraging habitats based on stable isotope values measured in plasma and red blood...

  15. Modelling Peatland Hydrology: Three cases from Northern Europe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Querner, E.P.; Mioduszewski, W.; Povilaitis, A.; Slesicka, A.

    2010-01-01

    Many of the peatlands that used to extend over large parts of Northern Europe have been reclaimed for agriculture. Human influence continues to have a major impact on the hydrology of those that remain, affecting river flow and groundwater levels. In order to understand this hydrology it is

  16. Modeling co-occurrence of northern spotted and barred owls: accounting for detection probability differences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bailey, Larissa L.; Reid, Janice A.; Forsman, Eric D.; Nichols, James D.

    2009-01-01

    Barred owls (Strix varia) have recently expanded their range and now encompass the entire range of the northern spotted owl (Strix occidentalis caurina). This expansion has led to two important issues of concern for management of northern spotted owls: (1) possible competitive interactions between the two species that could contribute to population declines of northern spotted owls, and (2) possible changes in vocalization behavior and detection probabilities of northern spotted owls induced by presence of barred owls. We used a two-species occupancy model to investigate whether there was evidence of competitive exclusion between the two species at study locations in Oregon, USA. We simultaneously estimated detection probabilities for both species and determined if the presence of one species influenced the detection of the other species. Model selection results and associated parameter estimates provided no evidence that barred owls excluded spotted owls from territories. We found strong evidence that detection probabilities differed for the two species, with higher probabilities for northern spotted owls that are the object of current surveys. Non-detection of barred owls is very common in surveys for northern spotted owls, and detection of both owl species was negatively influenced by the presence of the congeneric species. Our results suggest that analyses directed at hypotheses of barred owl effects on demographic or occupancy vital rates of northern spotted owls need to deal adequately with imperfect and variable detection probabilities for both species.

  17. Multiple Landslide-Hazard Scenarios Modeled for the Oakland-Berkeley Area, Northern California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pike, Richard J.; Graymer, Russell W.

    2008-01-01

    With the exception of Los Angeles, perhaps no urban area in the United States is more at risk from landsliding, triggered by either precipitation or earthquake, than the San Francisco Bay region of northern California. By January each year, seasonal winter storms usually bring moisture levels of San Francisco Bay region hillsides to the point of saturation, after which additional heavy rainfall may induce landslides of various types and levels of severity. In addition, movement at any time along one of several active faults in the area may generate an earthquake large enough to trigger landslides. The danger to life and property rises each year as local populations continue to expand and more hillsides are graded for development of residential housing and its supporting infrastructure. The chapters in the text consist of: *Introduction by Russell W. Graymer *Chapter 1 Rainfall Thresholds for Landslide Activity, San Francisco Bay Region, Northern California by Raymond C. Wilson *Chapter 2 Susceptibility to Deep-Seated Landsliding Modeled for the Oakland-Berkeley Area, Northern California by Richard J. Pike and Steven Sobieszczyk *Chapter 3 Susceptibility to Shallow Landsliding Modeled for the Oakland-Berkeley Area, Northern California by Kevin M. Schmidt and Steven Sobieszczyk *Chapter 4 Landslide Hazard Modeled for the Cities of Oakland, Piedmont, and Berkeley, Northern California, from a M=7.1 Scenario Earthquake on the Hayward Fault Zone by Scott B. Miles and David K. Keefer *Chapter 5 Synthesis of Landslide-Hazard Scenarios Modeled for the Oakland-Berkeley Area, Northern California by Richard J. Pike The plates consist of: *Plate 1 Susceptibility to Deep-Seated Landsliding Modeled for the Oakland-Berkeley Area, Northern California by Richard J. Pike, Russell W. Graymer, Sebastian Roberts, Naomi B. Kalman, and Steven Sobieszczyk *Plate 2 Susceptibility to Shallow Landsliding Modeled for the Oakland-Berkeley Area, Northern California by Kevin M. Schmidt and Steven

  18. Developing a Topographic Model to Predict the Northern Hardwood Forest Type within Carolina Northern Flying Squirrel (Glaucomys sabrinus coloratus Recovery Areas of the Southern Appalachians

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew Evans

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The northern hardwood forest type is an important habitat component for the endangered Carolina northern flying squirrel (CNFS; Glaucomys sabrinus coloratus for den sites and corridor habitats between boreo-montane conifer patches foraging areas. Our study related terrain data to presence of northern hardwood forest type in the recovery areas of CNFS in the southern Appalachian Mountains of western North Carolina, eastern Tennessee, and southwestern Virginia. We recorded overstory species composition and terrain variables at 338 points, to construct a robust, spatially predictive model. Terrain variables analyzed included elevation, aspect, slope gradient, site curvature, and topographic exposure. We used an information-theoretic approach to assess seven models based on associations noted in existing literature as well as an inclusive global model. Our results indicate that, on a regional scale, elevation, aspect, and topographic exposure index (TEI are significant predictors of the presence of the northern hardwood forest type in the southern Appalachians. Our elevation + TEI model was the best approximating model (the lowest AICc score for predicting northern hardwood forest type correctly classifying approximately 78% of our sample points. We then used these data to create region-wide predictive maps of the distribution of the northern hardwood forest type within CNFS recovery areas.

  19. Statistical Models for Sediment/Detritus and Dissolved Absorption Coefficients in Coastal Waters of the Northern Gulf of Mexico

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Green, Rebecca E; Gould, Jr., Richard W; Ko, Dong S

    2008-01-01

    ... (CDOM) absorption coefficients from physical hydrographic and atmospheric properties. The models were developed for northern Gulf of Mexico shelf waters using multi-year satellite and physical data...

  20. Changes in behaviour and faecal glucocorticoid levels in response to increased human activities during weekends in the pin-tailed sandgrouse.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casas, Fabián; Benítez-López, Ana; Tarjuelo, Rocío; Barja, Isabel; Viñuela, Javier; García, Jesús T; Morales, Manuel B; Mougeot, Francois

    2016-12-01

    Human recreational activities are becoming increasingly widespread and frequent, a fact that may potentially exacerbate their effects on wildlife. These human-related disturbances on animals may induce behavioural and physiological changes that can ultimately affect their fitness, showing a similar anti-predator response that against natural predator or other threats. Here, we combine the use of behavioural and physiological approaches to assess the potential effect of winter human activities on a threatened farmland bird in Europe, the pin-tailed sandgrouse (Pterocles alchata). We compared before, during and after weekend variations in human activity rates, pin-tailed sandgrouse behaviour (flocking and flying behaviour, interspecific association in mixed flocks and habitat use) and faecal glucocorticoid metabolite concentrations. Human disturbances, in particular those associated with hunting activities, peaked during weekends. Sandgrouse showed significant behavioural changes (increased sandgrouse-only flock sizes, increased proportion of birds flying and changes in habitat use) during weekends and higher faecal glucocorticoid metabolite concentrations after the weekends compared with during or before weekends. Therefore, physiological stress levels could be modulated by behavioural adjustments such as increased flock sizes and changes in habitat use that may allow sandgrouse to cope with increased human disturbance rates during weekends. Nevertheless, temporal and spatial organization of hunting days among groups of estates might be good strategies to buffer these potential adverse effects on wintering pin-tailed sandgrouse and other steppe species of conservation concern, while preserving a socio-economically important activity such as hunting.

  1. Changes in behaviour and faecal glucocorticoid levels in response to increased human activities during weekends in the pin-tailed sandgrouse

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casas, Fabián; Benítez-López, Ana; Tarjuelo, Rocío; Barja, Isabel; Viñuela, Javier; García, Jesús T.; Morales, Manuel B.; Mougeot, Francois

    2016-12-01

    Human recreational activities are becoming increasingly widespread and frequent, a fact that may potentially exacerbate their effects on wildlife. These human-related disturbances on animals may induce behavioural and physiological changes that can ultimately affect their fitness, showing a similar anti-predator response that against natural predator or other threats. Here, we combine the use of behavioural and physiological approaches to assess the potential effect of winter human activities on a threatened farmland bird in Europe, the pin-tailed sandgrouse ( Pterocles alchata). We compared before, during and after weekend variations in human activity rates, pin-tailed sandgrouse behaviour (flocking and flying behaviour, interspecific association in mixed flocks and habitat use) and faecal glucocorticoid metabolite concentrations. Human disturbances, in particular those associated with hunting activities, peaked during weekends. Sandgrouse showed significant behavioural changes (increased sandgrouse-only flock sizes, increased proportion of birds flying and changes in habitat use) during weekends and higher faecal glucocorticoid metabolite concentrations after the weekends compared with during or before weekends. Therefore, physiological stress levels could be modulated by behavioural adjustments such as increased flock sizes and changes in habitat use that may allow sandgrouse to cope with increased human disturbance rates during weekends. Nevertheless, temporal and spatial organization of hunting days among groups of estates might be good strategies to buffer these potential adverse effects on wintering pin-tailed sandgrouse and other steppe species of conservation concern, while preserving a socio-economically important activity such as hunting.

  2. A conceptual model to facilitate amphibian conservation in the northern Great Plains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mushnet, David M.; Euliss, Ned H.; Stockwell, Craig A.

    2012-01-01

    As pressures on agricultural landscapes to meet worldwide resource needs increase, amphibian populations face numerous threats including habitat destruction, chemical contaminants, disease outbreaks, wetland sedimentation, and synergistic effects of these perturbations. To facilitate conservation planning, we developed a conceptual model depicting elements critical for amphibian conservation in the northern Great Plains. First, we linked upland, wetland, and landscape features to specific ecological attributes. Ecological attributes included adult survival; reproduction and survival to metamorphosis; and successful dispersal and recolonization. Second, we linked ecosystem drivers, ecosystem stressors, and ecological effects of the region to each ecological attribute. Lastly, we summarized information on these ecological attributes and the drivers, stressors, and effects that work in concert to influence the maintenance of viable and genetically diverse amphibian populations in the northern Great Plains. While our focus was on the northern Great Plains, our conceptual model can be tailored to other geographic regions and taxa.

  3. A model of trophic flows in the northern Benguela upwelling system ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Ultimately, this type of model may form a basis for multispecies management approaches in the region. By the 1980s, sardine Sardinops sagax and hake Merluccius spp. stocks in the northern Benguela had both undergone a decline, yet were still heavily fished. Horse mackerel Trachurus trachurus capensis had increased ...

  4. Mapping sources, sinks, and connectivity using a simulation model of Northern Spotted Owls

    Science.gov (United States)

    This is a study of source-sink dynamics at a landscape scale. In conducting the study, we make use of a mature simulation model for the northern spotted owl (Strix occidentalis caurina) that was developed as part of the US Fish and Wildlife Service’s most recent recovery plannin...

  5. Growth models for ponderosa pine: I. Yield of unthinned plantations in northern California.

    Science.gov (United States)

    William W. Oliver; Robert F. Powers

    1978-01-01

    Yields for high-survival, unthinned ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa Laws.) plantations in northern California are estimated. Stems of 367 trees in 12 plantations were analyzed to produce a growth model simulating stand yields. Diameter, basal area, and net cubic volume yields by Site Indices50 40 through 120 are tabulated for...

  6. Models for mapping potential habitat at landscape scales: an example using northern spotted owls.

    Science.gov (United States)

    William C. McComb; Michael T. McGrath; Thomas A. Spies; David. Vesely

    2002-01-01

    We are assessing the potential for current and alternative policies in the Oregon Coast Range to affect habitat capability for a suite of forest resources. We provide an example of a spatially explicit habitat capability model for northern spotted owls (Strix occidentalis caurina)to illustrate the approach we are taking to assess potential changes...

  7. Representing northern peatland microtopography and hydrology within the Community Land Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    X. Shi; P.E. Thornton; D.M. Ricciuto; P J. Hanson; J. Mao; Stephen Sebestyen; N.A. Griffiths; G. Bisht

    2015-01-01

    Predictive understanding of northern peatland hydrology is a necessary precursor to understanding the fate of massive carbon stores in these systems under the influence of present and future climate change. Current models have begun to address microtopographic controls on peatland hydrology, but none have included a prognostic calculation of peatland water table depth...

  8. A new model for cork weight estimation in Northern Portugal with methodology for construction of confidence intervals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teresa J.F. Fonseca; Bernard R. Parresol

    2001-01-01

    Cork, a unique biological material, is a highly valued non-timber forest product. Portugal is the leading producer of cork with 52 percent of the world production. Tree cork weight models have been developed for Southern Portugal, but there are no representative published models for Northern Portugal. Because cork trees may have a different form between Northern and...

  9. Global change modeling for Northern Eurasia: a review and strategies to move forward

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monier, E.; Kicklighter, D. W.; Sokolov, A. P.; Zhuang, Q.; Sokolik, I. N.; Lawford, R. G.; Kappas, M.; Paltsev, S.; Groisman, P. Y.

    2017-12-01

    Northern Eurasia is made up of a complex and diverse set of physical, ecological, climatic and human systems, which provide important ecosystem services including the storage of substantial stocks of carbon in its terrestrial ecosystems. At the same time, the region has experienced dramatic climate change, natural disturbances and changes in land management practices over the past century. For these reasons, Northern Eurasia is both a critical region to understand and a complex system with substantial challenges for the modeling community. This review is designed to highlight the state of past and ongoing efforts of the research community to understand and model these environmental, socioeconomic, and climatic changes. We further aim to provide perspectives on the future direction of global change modeling to improve our understanding of the role of Northern Eurasia in the coupled human-Earth system. Modeling efforts have shown that environmental and socioeconomic changes in Northern Eurasia can have major impacts on biodiversity, ecosystems services, environmental sustainability, and the carbon cycle of the region, and beyond. These impacts have the potential to feedback onto and alter the global Earth system. We find that past and ongoing studies have largely focused on specific components of Earth system dynamics and have not systematically examined their feedbacks to the global Earth system and to society. We identify the crucial role of Earth system models in advancing our understanding of feedbacks within the region and with the global system. We further argue for the need for integrated assessment models (IAMs), a suite of models that couple human activity models to Earth system models, which are key to address many emerging issues that require a representation of the coupled human-Earth system.

  10. A review of and perspectives on global change modeling for Northern Eurasia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monier, Erwan; Kicklighter, David W.; Sokolov, Andrei P.; Zhuang, Qianlai; Sokolik, Irina N.; Lawford, Richard; Kappas, Martin; Paltsev, Sergey V.; Groisman, Pavel Ya

    2017-08-01

    Northern Eurasia is made up of a complex and diverse set of physical, ecological, climatic and human systems, which provide important ecosystem services including the storage of substantial stocks of carbon in its terrestrial ecosystems. At the same time, the region has experienced dramatic climate change, natural disturbances and changes in land management practices over the past century. For these reasons, Northern Eurasia is both a critical region to understand and a complex system with substantial challenges for the modeling community. This review is designed to highlight the state of past and ongoing efforts of the research community to understand and model these environmental, socioeconomic, and climatic changes. We further aim to provide perspectives on the future direction of global change modeling to improve our understanding of the role of Northern Eurasia in the coupled human-Earth system. Modeling efforts have shown that environmental and socioeconomic changes in Northern Eurasia can have major impacts on biodiversity, ecosystems services, environmental sustainability, and the carbon cycle of the region, and beyond. These impacts have the potential to feedback onto and alter the global Earth system. We find that past and ongoing studies have largely focused on specific components of Earth system dynamics and have not systematically examined their feedbacks to the global Earth system and to society. We identify the crucial role of Earth system models in advancing our understanding of feedbacks within the region and with the global system. We further argue for the need for integrated assessment models (IAMs), a suite of models that couple human activity models to Earth system models, which are key to address many emerging issues that require a representation of the coupled human-Earth system.

  11. A dynamic continental runoff routing model applied to the last Northern Hemisphere deglaciation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Goelzer

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available We describe and evaluate a dynamical continental runoff routing model for the Northern Hemisphere that calculates the runoff pathways in response to topographic modifications due to changes in ice thickness and isostatic adjustment. The algorithm is based on the steepest gradient method and takes as simplifying assumption that depressions are filled at all times and water drains through the lowest outlet points. It also considers changes in water storage and lake drainage in post-processing mode that become important in the presence of large ice dammed proglacial lakes. Although applicable to other scenarios as well, the model was conceived to study the routing of freshwater fluxes during the last Northern Hemisphere deglaciation. For that specific application we simulated the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets with an existing 3-D thermomechanical ice sheet model, which calculates changes in topography due to changes in ice cover and isostatic adjustment, as well as the evolution of freshwater fluxes resulting from surface ablation, iceberg calving and basal melt. The continental runoff model takes this input, calculates the drainage pathways and routes the freshwater fluxes to the surface grid points of an existing ocean model. This results in a chronology of temporally and spatially varying freshwater fluxes from the Last Glacial Maximum to the present day. We analyse the dependence of the runoff routing to grid resolution and parameters of the isostatic adjustment module of the ice sheet model.

  12. Modelled female sale options demonstrate improved profitability in northern beef herds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niethe, G E; Holmes, W E

    2008-12-01

    To examine the impact of improving the average value of cows sold, the risk of decreasing the number weaned, and total sales on the profitability of northern Australian cattle breeding properties. Gather, model and interpret breeder herd performances and production parameters on properties from six beef-producing regions in northern Australia. Production parameters, prices, costs and herd structure were entered into a herd simulation model for six northern Australian breeding properties that spay females to enhance their marketing options. After the data were validated by management, alternative management strategies were modelled using current market prices and most likely herd outcomes. The model predicted a close relationship between the average sale value of cows, the total herd sales and the gross margin/adult equivalent. Keeping breeders out of the herd to fatten generally improves their sale value, and this can be cost-effective, despite the lower number of progeny produced and the subsequent reduction in total herd sales. Furthermore, if the price of culled cows exceeds the price of culled heifers, provided there are sufficient replacement pregnant heifers available to maintain the breeder herd nucleus, substantial gains in profitability can be obtained by decreasing the age at which cows are culled from the herd. Generalised recommendations on improving reproductive performance are not necessarily the most cost-effective strategy to improve breeder herd profitability. Judicious use of simulation models is essential to help develop the best turnoff strategies for females and to improve station profitability.

  13. Intraplate Crustal Deformation Within the Northern Sinai Microplate: Evidence from Paleomagnetic Directions and Mechanical Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dembo, N.; Granot, R.; Hamiel, Y.

    2017-12-01

    The intraplate crustal deformation found in the northern part of the Sinai Microplate, located near the northern Dead Sea Fault plate boundary, is examined. Previous studies have suggested that distributed deformation in Lebanon is accommodated by regional uniform counterclockwise rigid block rotations. However, remanent magnetization directions observed near the Lebanese restraining bend are not entirely homogeneous suggesting that an unexplained and complex internal deformation pattern exists. In order to explain the variations in the amount of vertical-axis rotations we construct a mechanical model of the major active faults in the region that simulates the rotational deformation induced by motion along these faults. The rotational pattern calculated by the mechanical modeling predicts heterogeneous distribution of rotations around the faults. The combined rotation field that considers both the fault induced rotations and the already suggested regional block rotations stands in general agreement with the observed magnetization directions. Overall, the modeling results provide a more detailed and complete picture of the deformation pattern in this region and show that rotations induced by motion along the Dead Sea Fault act in parallel to rigid block rotations. Finally, the new modeling results unravel important insights as to the fashion in which crustal deformation is distributed within the northern part of the Sinai Microplate and propose an improved deformational mechanism that might be appropriate for other plate margins as well.

  14. The northern tidal dynamic of Aceh waters: A 3D numerical model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Irham, M.; Miswar, E.; Ilhamsyah, Y.; Setiawan, I.

    2018-05-01

    The northern tidal dynamic of Aceh waters studied by employing three-dimensional (3D) numerical hydrodynamic model. The purpose of this study is to understand the phenomena and the characteristic of the northern tidal dynamic of Aceh waters. The research used the explicit-splitting scheme numerical model of Navier-Stokes formulation. The result displays that the vertical rotation of flow movement (vertical eddy) at a depth of 15 to 25 meter eastern part of the study area. Hence, the result also informs that the current circulation identically to the upwelling in the western region of Aceh during the wet season and vice versa. However, during the transitional season, the flow circulation depends on how the tidal dynamic occurs in the area.

  15. Developments in regional scale simulation: modelling ecologically sustainable development in the Northern Territory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moffatt, I.

    1992-01-01

    This paper outlines one way in which researchers can make a positive methodological contribution to the debate on ecologically sustainable development (ESD) by integrating dynamic modelling and geographical information systems to form the basis for regional scale simulations. Some of the orthodox uses of Geographic Information System (GIS) are described and it is argued that most applications do not incorporate process based causal models. A description of a pilot study into developing a processed base model of ESD in the Northern Territory is given. This dynamic process based simulation model consists of two regions namely the 'Top End' and the 'Central' district. Each region consists of ten sub-sectors and the pattern of land use represents a common sector to both regions. The role of environmental defence expenditure, including environmental rehabilitation of uranium mines, in the model is noted. Similarly, it is hypothesized that the impact of exogenous changes such as the greenhouse effect and global economic fluctuations can have a differential impact on the behaviour of several sectors of the model. Some of the problems associated with calibrating and testing the model are reviewed. Finally, it is suggested that further refinement of this model can be achieved with the pooling of data sets and the development of PC based transputers for more detailed and accurate regional scale simulations. When fully developed it is anticipated that this pilot model can be of service to environmental managers and other groups involved in promoting ESD in the Northern Territory. 54 refs., 6 figs

  16. Modelling seasonal habitat suitability for wide-ranging species: Invasive wild pigs in northern Australia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jens G Froese

    Full Text Available Invasive wildlife often causes serious damage to the economy and agriculture as well as environmental, human and animal health. Habitat models can fill knowledge gaps about species distributions and assist planning to mitigate impacts. Yet, model accuracy and utility may be compromised by small study areas and limited integration of species ecology or temporal variability. Here we modelled seasonal habitat suitability for wild pigs, a widespread and harmful invader, in northern Australia. We developed a resource-based, spatially-explicit and regional-scale approach using Bayesian networks and spatial pattern suitability analysis. We integrated important ecological factors such as variability in environmental conditions, breeding requirements and home range movements. The habitat model was parameterized during a structured, iterative expert elicitation process and applied to a wet season and a dry season scenario. Model performance and uncertainty was evaluated against independent distributional data sets. Validation results showed that an expert-averaged model accurately predicted empirical wild pig presences in northern Australia for both seasonal scenarios. Model uncertainty was largely associated with different expert assumptions about wild pigs' resource-seeking home range movements. Habitat suitability varied considerably between seasons, retracting to resource-abundant rainforest, wetland and agricultural refuge areas during the dry season and expanding widely into surrounding grassland floodplains, savanna woodlands and coastal shrubs during the wet season. Overall, our model suggested that suitable wild pig habitat is less widely available in northern Australia than previously thought. Mapped results may be used to quantify impacts, assess risks, justify management investments and target control activities. Our methods are applicable to other wide-ranging species, especially in data-poor situations.

  17. Comparison of phenology models for predicting the onset of growing season over the Northern Hemisphere.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yang Fu

    Full Text Available Vegetation phenology models are important for examining the impact of climate change on the length of the growing season and carbon cycles in terrestrial ecosystems. However, large uncertainties in present phenology models make accurate assessment of the beginning of the growing season (BGS a challenge. In this study, based on the satellite-based phenology product (i.e. the V005 MODIS Land Cover Dynamics (MCD12Q2 product, we calibrated four phenology models, compared their relative strength to predict vegetation phenology; and assessed the spatial pattern and interannual variability of BGS in the Northern Hemisphere. The results indicated that parameter calibration significantly influences the models' accuracy. All models showed good performance in cool regions but poor performance in warm regions. On average, they explained about 67% (the Growing Degree Day model, 79% (the Biome-BGC phenology model, 73% (the Number of Growing Days model and 68% (the Number of Chilling Days-Growing Degree Day model of the BGS variations over the Northern Hemisphere. There were substantial differences in BGS simulations among the four phenology models. Overall, the Biome-BGC phenology model performed best in predicting the BGS, and showed low biases in most boreal and cool regions. Compared with the other three models, the two-phase phenology model (NCD-GDD showed the lowest correlation and largest biases with the MODIS phenology product, although it could catch the interannual variations well for some vegetation types. Our study highlights the need for further improvements by integrating the effects of water availability, especially for plants growing in low latitudes, and the physiological adaptation of plants into phenology models.

  18. Comparison of phenology models for predicting the onset of growing season over the Northern Hemisphere.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fu, Yang; Zhang, Haicheng; Dong, Wenjie; Yuan, Wenping

    2014-01-01

    Vegetation phenology models are important for examining the impact of climate change on the length of the growing season and carbon cycles in terrestrial ecosystems. However, large uncertainties in present phenology models make accurate assessment of the beginning of the growing season (BGS) a challenge. In this study, based on the satellite-based phenology product (i.e. the V005 MODIS Land Cover Dynamics (MCD12Q2) product), we calibrated four phenology models, compared their relative strength to predict vegetation phenology; and assessed the spatial pattern and interannual variability of BGS in the Northern Hemisphere. The results indicated that parameter calibration significantly influences the models' accuracy. All models showed good performance in cool regions but poor performance in warm regions. On average, they explained about 67% (the Growing Degree Day model), 79% (the Biome-BGC phenology model), 73% (the Number of Growing Days model) and 68% (the Number of Chilling Days-Growing Degree Day model) of the BGS variations over the Northern Hemisphere. There were substantial differences in BGS simulations among the four phenology models. Overall, the Biome-BGC phenology model performed best in predicting the BGS, and showed low biases in most boreal and cool regions. Compared with the other three models, the two-phase phenology model (NCD-GDD) showed the lowest correlation and largest biases with the MODIS phenology product, although it could catch the interannual variations well for some vegetation types. Our study highlights the need for further improvements by integrating the effects of water availability, especially for plants growing in low latitudes, and the physiological adaptation of plants into phenology models.

  19. Representing Northern Peatland Hydrology and Biogeochemistry with ALM Land Surface Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, X.; Ricciuto, D. M.; Thornton, P. E.; Hanson, P. J.; Xu, X.; Mao, J.; Warren, J.; Yuan, F.; Norby, R. J.; Sebestyen, S.; Griffiths, N.; Weston, D. J.; Walker, A.

    2017-12-01

    Northern peatlands are likely to be important in future carbon cycle-climate feedbacks due to their large carbon pool and vulnerability to hydrological change. Predictive understanding of northern peatland hydrology is a necessary precursor to understanding the fate of massive carbon stores in these systems under the influence of present and future climate change. Current models have begun to address microtopographic controls on peatland hydrology, but none have included a prognostic calculation of peatland water table depth for a vegetated wetland, independent of prescribed regional water tables. Firstly, we introduce a new configuration of the land model (ALM) of Accelerated Climate model for Energy (ACME), which includes a fully prognostic water table calculation for a vegetated peatland. Secondly, we couple our new hydrology treatment with vertically structured soil organic matter pool, and the addition of components from methane biogeochemistry. Thirdly, we introduce a new PFT for mosses and implement the water content dynamics and physiology of mosses. We inform and test our model based on SPRUCE experiment to get the reasonable results for the seasonal dynamics water table depths, water content dynamics and physiology of mosses, and correct soil carbon profiles. Then, we use our new model structure to test the how the water table depth and CH4 emission will respond to elevated CO2 and different warming scenarios.

  20. Forecasting the northern African dust outbreak towards Europe in April 2011: a model intercomparison

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Huneeus

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available In the framework of the World Meteorological Organisation's Sand and Dust Storm Warning Advisory and Assessment System, we evaluated the predictions of five state-of-the-art dust forecast models during an intense Saharan dust outbreak affecting western and northern Europe in April 2011. We assessed the capacity of the models to predict the evolution of the dust cloud with lead times of up to 72 h using observations of aerosol optical depth (AOD from the AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS and dust surface concentrations from a ground-based measurement network. In addition, the predicted vertical dust distribution was evaluated with vertical extinction profiles from the Cloud and Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP. To assess the diversity in forecast capability among the models, the analysis was extended to wind field (both surface and profile, synoptic conditions, emissions and deposition fluxes. Models predict the onset and evolution of the AOD for all analysed lead times. On average, differences among the models are larger than differences among lead times for each individual model. In spite of large differences in emission and deposition, the models present comparable skill for AOD. In general, models are better in predicting AOD than near-surface dust concentration over the Iberian Peninsula. Models tend to underestimate the long-range transport towards northern Europe. Our analysis suggests that this is partly due to difficulties in simulating the vertical distribution dust and horizontal wind. Differences in the size distribution and wet scavenging efficiency may also account for model diversity in long-range transport.

  1. Forecasting the northern African dust outbreak towards Europe in April 2011: a model intercomparison

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huneeus, N.; Basart, S.; Fiedler, S.; Morcrette, J.-J.; Benedetti, A.; Mulcahy, J.; Terradellas, E.; Pérez García-Pando, C.; Pejanovic, G.; Nickovic, S.; Arsenovic, P.; Schulz, M.; Cuevas, E.; Baldasano, J. M.; Pey, J.; Remy, S.; Cvetkovic, B.

    2016-04-01

    In the framework of the World Meteorological Organisation's Sand and Dust Storm Warning Advisory and Assessment System, we evaluated the predictions of five state-of-the-art dust forecast models during an intense Saharan dust outbreak affecting western and northern Europe in April 2011. We assessed the capacity of the models to predict the evolution of the dust cloud with lead times of up to 72 h using observations of aerosol optical depth (AOD) from the AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and dust surface concentrations from a ground-based measurement network. In addition, the predicted vertical dust distribution was evaluated with vertical extinction profiles from the Cloud and Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP). To assess the diversity in forecast capability among the models, the analysis was extended to wind field (both surface and profile), synoptic conditions, emissions and deposition fluxes. Models predict the onset and evolution of the AOD for all analysed lead times. On average, differences among the models are larger than differences among lead times for each individual model. In spite of large differences in emission and deposition, the models present comparable skill for AOD. In general, models are better in predicting AOD than near-surface dust concentration over the Iberian Peninsula. Models tend to underestimate the long-range transport towards northern Europe. Our analysis suggests that this is partly due to difficulties in simulating the vertical distribution dust and horizontal wind. Differences in the size distribution and wet scavenging efficiency may also account for model diversity in long-range transport.

  2. Estimation of antecedent wetness conditions for flood modelling in northern Morocco

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Tramblay

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available In northern Morocco are located most of the dams and reservoirs of the country, while this region is affected by severe rainfall events causing floods. To improve the management of the water regulation structures, there is a need to develop rainfall–runoff models to both maximize the storage capacity and reduce the risks caused by floods. In this study, a model is developed to reproduce the flood events for a 655 km2 catchment located upstream of the 6th largest dam in Morocco. Constrained by data availability, a standard event-based model combining a SCS-CN (Soil Conservation Service Curve Number loss model and a Clark unit hydrograph was developed for hourly discharge simulation using 16 flood events that occurred between 1984 and 2008. The model was found satisfactory to reproduce the runoff and the temporal evolution of floods, even with limited rainfall data. Several antecedent wetness conditions estimators for the catchment were compared with the initial condition of the model. Theses estimators include an antecedent discharge index, an antecedent precipitation index and a continuous daily soil moisture accounting model (SMA, based on precipitation and evapotranspiration. The SMA model performed the best to estimate the initial conditions of the event-based hydrological model (R2 = 0.9. Its daily output has been compared with ASCAT and AMSR-E remote sensing data products, which were both able to reproduce with accuracy the daily simulated soil moisture dynamics at the catchment scale. This same approach could be implemented in other catchments of this region for operational purposes. The results of this study suggest that remote sensing data are potentially useful to estimate the soil moisture conditions in the case of ungauged catchments in Northern Africa.

  3. Artificial Neural Network Modelling of the Energy Content of Municipal Solid Wastes in Northern Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. B. Oumarou

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The study presents an application of the artificial neural network model using the back propagation learning algorithm to predict the actual calorific value of the municipal solid waste in major cities of the northern part of Nigeria, with high population densities and intense industrial activities. These cities are: Kano, Damaturu, Dutse, Bauchi, Birnin Kebbi, Gusau, Maiduguri, Katsina and Sokoto. Experimental data of the energy content and the physical characterization of the municipal solid waste serve as the input parameter in nature of wood, grass, metal, plastic, food remnants, leaves, glass and paper. Comparative studies were made by using the developed model, the experimental results and a correlation which was earlier developed by the authors to predict the energy content. While predicting the actual calorific value, the maximum error was 0.94% for the artificial neural network model and 5.20% by the statistical correlation. The network with eight neurons and an R2 = 0.96881 in the hidden layer results in a stable and optimum network. This study showed that the artificial neural network approach could successfully be used for energy content predictions from the municipal solid wastes in Northern Nigeria and other areas of similar waste stream and composition.

  4. Climate model diversity in the Northern Hemisphere Polar vortex response to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simpson, I.; Seager, R.; Hitchcock, P.; Cohen, N.

    2017-12-01

    Global climate models vary widely in their predictions of the future of the Northern Hemisphere stratospheric polar vortex, with some showing a significant strengthening of the vortex, some showing a significant weakening and others displaying a response that is not outside of the range expected from internal variability alone. This inter-model spread in stratospheric predictions may account for some inter-model spread in tropospheric predictions with important implications for the storm tracks and regional climate change, particularly for the North Atlantic sector. Here, our current state of understanding of this model spread and its tropospheric impacts will be reviewed. Previous studies have proposed relationships between a models polar vortex response to climate change and its present day vortex climatology while others have demonstrated links between a models polar vortex response and changing wave activity coming up from the troposphere below under a warming climate. The extent to which these mechanisms can account for the spread in polar vortex changes exhibited by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5 models will be assessed. In addition, preliminary results from a series of idealized experiments with the Community Atmosphere Model will be presented. In these experiments, nudging of the stratospheric zonal mean state has been imposed to mimic the inter-model spread in the polar vortex response to climate change so that the downward influence of the spread in zonal mean stratospheric responses on the tropospheric circulation can be assessed within one model.

  5. LGM permafrost thickness and extent in the Northern Hemisphere derived from the earth system model iLOVECLIM

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kitover, D.C.; van Balen, R.T.; Vandenberghe, J.F.; Roche, D.M.V.A.P.; Renssen, H.

    2016-01-01

    An estimate of permafrost extent and thickness in the northern hemisphere during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ~ 21 ka) has been produced using the VU University Amsterdam Permafrost Snow (VAMPERS) model, forced by iLOVECLIM, an Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity. We present model

  6. Assessment of CMIP5 climate models and projected temperature changes over Northern Eurasia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miao, Chiyuan; Duan, Qingyun; Sun, Qiaohong; Kong, Dongxian; Ye, Aizhong; Di, Zhenhua; Gong, Wei; Huang, Yong; Yang, Tiantian

    2014-01-01

    Assessing the performance of climate models in surface air temperature (SAT) simulation and projection have received increasing attention during the recent decades. This paper assesses the performance of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) in simulating intra-annual, annual and decadal temperature over Northern Eurasia from 1901 to 2005. We evaluate the skill of different multi-model ensemble techniques and use the best technique to project the future SAT changes under different emission scenarios. The results show that most of the general circulation models (GCMs) overestimate the annual mean SAT in Northern Eurasia and the difference between the observation and the simulations primarily comes from the winter season. Most of the GCMs can approximately capture the decadal SAT trend; however, the accuracy of annual SAT simulation is relatively low. The correlation coefficient R between each GCM simulation and the annual observation is in the range of 0.20 to 0.56. The Taylor diagram shows that the ensemble results generated by the simple model averaging (SMA), reliability ensemble averaging (REA) and Bayesian model averaging (BMA) methods are superior to any single GCM output; and the decadal SAT change generated by SMA, REA and BMA are almost identical during 1901–2005. Heuristically, the uncertainty of BMA simulation is the smallest among the three multi-model ensemble simulations. The future SAT projection generated by the BMA shows that the SAT in Northern Eurasia will increase in the 21st century by around 1.03 °C/100 yr, 3.11 °C/100 yr and 7.14 °C/100 yr under the RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, respectively; and the warming accelerates with the increasing latitude. In addition, the spring season contributes most to the decadal warming occurring under the RCP 2.6 and RCP 4.5 scenarios, while the winter season contributes most to the decadal warming occurring under the RCP 8.5 scenario. Generally, the uncertainty of the SAT

  7. A model to assess exposure from releases of radioactivity into the seas of northern Europe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clark, M.J.; Webb, G.A.M.

    1981-01-01

    A regional marine model is described which can be used to estimate the exposure of populations as a result of the discharge of radioactive effluents into the coastal waters of northern Europe. The model simulates the dispersion of radionuclides in marine waters, their interaction with marine sediments and the concentration mechanisms occurring in seafoods. A local/regional interface is included whereby releases are assumed to first enter a local marine compartment before widespread dispersion in coastal waters. Depletion mechanisms operate within both the local and regional environments influencing the fraction of radionuclide release which contributes to collective exposure. In general, results of the regional model are expressed as collective intakes of activity from ingestion of marine seafoods. These quantities can be converted into collective doses per unit discharge, given a knowledge of local depletion factors and the dose per unit intake of radionuclides. Results for caesium-137 and plutonium-239 released into United Kingdom coastal waters are discussed. (author)

  8. On interception modelling of a lowland coastal rainforest in northern Queensland, Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wallace, Jim; McJannet, Dave

    2006-10-01

    SummaryRecent studies of the water balance of tropical rainforests in northern Queensland have revealed that large fractions of rainfall, up to 30%, are intercepted by the canopy and lost as evaporation. These loss rates are much higher than those reported for continental rainforests, for example, in the Amazon basin, where interception is around 9% of rainfall. Higher interception losses have been found in coastal and mountain rainforests and substantial advection of energy during rainfall is proposed to account for these results. This paper uses a process based model of interception to analyse the interception losses at Oliver Creek, a lowland coastal rainforest site in northern Queensland with a mean annual rainfall of 3952 mm. The observed interception loss of 25% of rainfall for the period August 2001 to January 2004 can be reproduced by the model with a suitable choice of the three key controlling variables, the canopy storage capacity, mean rainfall rate and mean wet canopy evaporation rate. Our analyses suggest that the canopy storage capacity of the Oliver Creek rainforest is between 3.0 and 3.5 mm, higher than reported for most other rainforests. Despite the high canopy capacity at our site, the interception losses can only be accounted for with energy advection during rainfall in the range 40-70% of the incident energy.

  9. Regional three-dimensional seismic velocity model of the crust and uppermost mantle of northern California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thurber, C.; Zhang, H.; Brocher, T.; Langenheim, V.

    2009-01-01

    We present a three-dimensional (3D) tomographic model of the P wave velocity (Vp) structure of northern California. We employed a regional-scale double-difference tomography algorithm that incorporates a finite-difference travel time calculator and spatial smoothing constraints. Arrival times from earthquakes and travel times from controlled-source explosions, recorded at network and/or temporary stations, were inverted for Vp on a 3D grid with horizontal node spacing of 10 to 20 km and vertical node spacing of 3 to 8 km. Our model provides an unprecedented, comprehensive view of the regional-scale structure of northern California, putting many previously identified features into a broader regional context and improving the resolution of a number of them and revealing a number of new features, especially in the middle and lower crust, that have never before been reported. Examples of the former include the complex subducting Gorda slab, a steep, deeply penetrating fault beneath the Sacramento River Delta, crustal low-velocity zones beneath Geysers-Clear Lake and Long Valley, and the high-velocity ophiolite body underlying the Great Valley. Examples of the latter include mid-crustal low-velocity zones beneath Mount Shasta and north of Lake Tahoe. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

  10. A GIS-based time-dependent seismic source modeling of Northern Iran

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hashemi, Mahdi; Alesheikh, Ali Asghar; Zolfaghari, Mohammad Reza

    2017-01-01

    The first step in any seismic hazard study is the definition of seismogenic sources and the estimation of magnitude-frequency relationships for each source. There is as yet no standard methodology for source modeling and many researchers have worked on this topic. This study is an effort to define linear and area seismic sources for Northern Iran. The linear or fault sources are developed based on tectonic features and characteristic earthquakes while the area sources are developed based on spatial distribution of small to moderate earthquakes. Time-dependent recurrence relationships are developed for fault sources using renewal approach while time-independent frequency-magnitude relationships are proposed for area sources based on Poisson process. GIS functionalities are used in this study to introduce and incorporate spatial-temporal and geostatistical indices in delineating area seismic sources. The proposed methodology is used to model seismic sources for an area of about 500 by 400 square kilometers around Tehran. Previous researches and reports are studied to compile an earthquake/fault catalog that is as complete as possible. All events are transformed to uniform magnitude scale; duplicate events and dependent shocks are removed. Completeness and time distribution of the compiled catalog is taken into account. The proposed area and linear seismic sources in conjunction with defined recurrence relationships can be used to develop time-dependent probabilistic seismic hazard analysis of Northern Iran.

  11. Access to Orthopaedic Surgical Care in Northern Tanzania: A Modelling Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Premkumar, Ajay; Ying, Xiaohan; Mack Hardaker, W; Massawe, Honest H; Mshahaba, David J; Mandari, Faiton; Pallangyo, Anthony; Temu, Rogers; Masenga, Gileard; Spiegel, David A; Sheth, Neil P

    2018-04-25

    The global burden of musculoskeletal disease and resulting disability is enormous and is expected to increase over the next few decades. In the world's poorest regions, the paucity of information defining and quantifying the current state of access to orthopaedic surgical care is a major problem in developing effective solutions. This study estimates the number of individuals in Northern Tanzania without adequate access to orthopaedic surgical services. A chance tree was created to model the probability of access to orthopaedic surgical services in the Northern Tanzanian regions of Arusha, Kilimanjaro, Tanga, Singida, and Manyara, with respect to four dimensions: timeliness, surgical capacity, safety, and affordability. Timeliness was estimated by the proportion of people living within a 4-h driving distance from a hospital with an orthopaedic surgeon, capacity by comparing number of surgeries performed to the number of surgeries indicated, safety by applying WHO Emergency and Essential Surgical Care infrastructure and equipment checklists, and affordability by approximating the proportion of the population protected from catastrophic out-of-pocket healthcare expenditure. We accounted for uncertainty in our model with one-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses. Data sources included the Tanzanian National Bureau of Statistics and Ministry of Finance, World Bank, World Health Organization, New Zealand Ministry of Health, Google Corporation, NASA population estimator, and 2015 hospital records from Kilimanjaro Christian Medical Center, Machame Hospital, Nkoroanga Hospital, Mt. Meru Hospital, and Arusha Lutheran Medical Center. Under the most conservative assumptions, more than 90% of the Northern Tanzanian population does not have access to orthopaedic surgical services. There is a near absence of access to orthopaedic surgical care in Northern Tanzania. These findings utilize more precise country and region-specific data and are consistent with prior published

  12. Landslide inventory and susceptibility modelling using geospatial tools, in Hunza-Nagar valley, northern Pakistan

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bacha, Alam Sher; Shafique, Muhammad; van der Werff, H.M.A.

    2018-01-01

    A comprehensive landslide inventory and susceptibility maps are prerequisite for developing and implementing landslide mitigation strategies. Landslide susceptibility maps for the landslides prone regions in northern Pakistan are rarely available. The Hunza-Nagar valley in northern Pakistan is known

  13. Reproducibility of summertime diurnal precipitation over northern Eurasia simulated by CMIP5 climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirota, N.; Takayabu, Y. N.

    2015-12-01

    Reproducibility of diurnal precipitation over northern Eurasia simulated by CMIP5 climate models in their historical runs were evaluated, in comparison with station data (NCDC-9813) and satellite data (GSMaP-V5). We first calculated diurnal cycles by averaging precipitation at each local solar time (LST) in June-July-August during 1981-2000 over the continent of northern Eurasia (0-180E, 45-90N). Then we examined occurrence time of maximum precipitation and a contribution of diurnally varying precipitation to the total precipitation.The contribution of diurnal precipitation was about 21% in both NCDC-9813 and GSMaP-V5. The maximum precipitation occurred at 18LST in NCDC-9813 but 16LST in GSMaP-V5, indicating some uncertainties even in the observational datasets. The diurnal contribution of the CMIP5 models varied largely from 11% to 62%, and their timing of the precipitation maximum ranged from 11LST to 20LST. Interestingly, the contribution and the timing had strong negative correlation of -0.65. The models with larger diurnal precipitation showed precipitation maximum earlier around noon. Next, we compared sensitivity of precipitation to surface temperature and tropospheric humidity between 5 models with large diurnal precipitation (LDMs) and 5 models with small diurnal precipitation (SDMs). Precipitation in LDMs showed high sensitivity to surface temperature, indicating its close relationship with local instability. On the other hand, synoptic disturbances were more active in SDMs with a dominant role of the large scale condensation, and precipitation in SDMs was more related with tropospheric moisture. Therefore, the relative importance of the local instability and the synoptic disturbances was suggested to be an important factor in determining the contribution and timing of the diurnal precipitation. Acknowledgment: This study is supported by Green Network of Excellence (GRENE) Program by the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology

  14. Dynamic rupture models of earthquakes on the Bartlett Springs Fault, Northern California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lozos, Julian C.; Harris, Ruth A.; Murray, Jessica R.; Lienkaemper, James J.

    2015-01-01

    The Bartlett Springs Fault (BSF), the easternmost branch of the northern San Andreas Fault system, creeps along much of its length. Geodetic data for the BSF are sparse, and surface creep rates are generally poorly constrained. The two existing geodetic slip rate inversions resolve at least one locked patch within the creeping zones. We use the 3-D finite element code FaultMod to conduct dynamic rupture models based on both geodetic inversions, in order to determine the ability of rupture to propagate into the creeping regions, as well as to assess possible magnitudes for BSF ruptures. For both sets of models, we find that the distribution of aseismic creep limits the extent of coseismic rupture, due to the contrast in frictional properties between the locked and creeping regions.

  15. Tectonoestratigraphic and Thermal Models of the Tiburon and Wagner Basins, northern Gulf of California Rift System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Contreras, J.; Ramirez Zerpa, N. A.; Negrete-Aranda, R.

    2014-12-01

    The northern Gulf of California Rift System consist sofa series faults that accommodate both normal and strike-slip motion. The faults formed a series of half-greens filled with more than 7 km of siliciclastic suc­cessions. Here, we present tectonostratigraphic and heat flow models for the Tiburón basin, in the southern part of the system, and the Wag­ner basin in the north. The models are constrained by two-dimensional seis­mic lines and by two deep boreholes drilled by PEMEX­-PEP. Analysis of the seismic lines and models' results show that: (i) subsidence of the basins is controlled by high-angle normal faults and by flow of the lower crust, (ii) basins share a common history, and (iii) there are significant differences in the way brittle strain was partitioned in the basins, a feature frequently observed in rift basins. On one hand, the bounding faults of the Tiburón basin have a nested geometry and became active following a west-to-east sequence of activation. The Tiburon half-graben was formed by two pulses of fault activity. One took place during the protogulf extensional phase in the Miocene and the other during the opening of Gulf of California in the Pleistocene. On the other hand, the Wagner basin is the result of two fault generations. During the late-to middle Miocene, the west-dipping Cerro Prieto and San Felipe faults formed a domino array. Then, during the Pleistocene the Consag and Wagner faults dissected the hanging-wall of the Cerro Prieto fault forming the modern Wagner basin. Thermal modeling of the deep borehole temperatures suggests that the heat flow in these basins in the order of 110 mW/m2 which is in agreement with superficial heat flow measurements in the northern Gulf of California Rift System.

  16. Cost savings from a telemedicine model of care in northern Queensland, Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thaker, Darshit A; Monypenny, Richard; Olver, Ian; Sabesan, Sabe

    2013-09-16

    To conduct a cost analysis of a telemedicine model for cancer care (teleoncology) in northern Queensland, Australia, compared with the usual model of care from the perspective of the Townsville and other participating hospital and health services. Retrospective cost-savings analysis; and a one-way sensitivity analysis performed to test the robustness of findings in net savings. Records of all patients managed by means of teleoncology at the Townsville Cancer Centre (TCC) and its six rural satellite centres in northern Queensland, Australia between 1 March 2007 and 30 November 2011. Costs for set-up and staffing to manage the service, and savings from avoidance of travel expenses for specialist oncologists, patients and their escorts, and for aeromedical retrievals. There were 605 teleoncology consultations with 147 patients over 56 months, at a total cost of $442 276. The cost for project establishment was $36 000, equipment/maintenance was $143 271, and staff was $261 520. The estimated travel expense avoided was $762 394; this figure included the costs of travel for patients and escorts of $658 760, aeromedical retrievals of $52 400 and travel for specialists of $47 634, as well as an estimate of accommodation costs for a proportion of patients of $3600. This resulted in a net saving of $320 118. Costs would have to increase by 72% to negate the savings. The teleoncology model of care at the TCC resulted in net savings, mainly due to avoidance of travel costs. Such savings could be redirected to enhancing rural resources and service capabilities. This teleoncology model is applicable to geographically distant areas requiring lengthy travel.

  17. Domestic dog roaming patterns in remote northern Australian indigenous communities and implications for disease modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hudson, Emily G; Brookes, Victoria J; Dürr, Salome; Ward, Michael P

    2017-10-01

    Although Australia is canine rabies free, the Northern Peninsula Area (NPA), Queensland and other northern Australian communities are at risk of an incursion due to proximity to rabies infected islands of Indonesia and existing disease spread pathways. Northern Australia also has large populations of free-roaming domestic dogs, presenting a risk of rabies establishment and maintenance should an incursion occur. Agent-based rabies spread models are being used to predict potential outbreak size and identify effective control strategies to aid incursion preparedness. A key component of these models is knowledge of dog roaming patterns to inform contact rates. However, a comprehensive understanding of how dogs utilise their environment and the heterogeneity of their movements to estimate contact rates is lacking. Using a novel simulation approach - and GPS data collected from 21 free-roaming domestic dogs in the NPA in 2014 and 2016 - we characterised the roaming patterns within this dog population. Multiple subsets from each individual dog's GPS dataset were selected representing different monitoring durations and a utilisation distribution (UD) and derived core (50%) and extended (95%) home ranges (HR) were estimated for each duration. Three roaming patterns were identified, based on changes in mean HR over increased monitoring durations, supported by assessment of maps of daily UDs of each dog. Stay-at-home dogs consolidated their HR around their owner's residence, resulting in a decrease in mean HR (both core and extended) as monitoring duration increased (median peak core and extended HR 0.336 and 3.696ha, respectively). Roamer dogs consolidated their core HR but their extended HR increased with longer monitoring durations, suggesting that their roaming patterns based on place of residence were more variable (median peak core and extended HR 0.391 and 6.049ha, respectively). Explorer dogs demonstrated large variability in their roaming patterns, with both core and

  18. A model to calculate exposure from radioactive discharges into the coastal waters of Northern Europe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clark, M.J.; Grimwood, P.D.; Camplin, W.C.

    1980-11-01

    A regional marine model is described which can be used to estimate the exposure of populations as a result of the discharge of radioactive effluents into the coastal waters of Northern Europe. The model simulates the dispersion of radionuclides in marine waters, Their interaction with marine sediments and the concentration mechanisms occurring in seafoods. There is a local/regional interface defined in the modelling approach whereby releases are assumed to first enter a local marine compartment prior to widespread dispersion in coastal waters. Depletion mechanisms operate within both the local and regional environments influencing the fraction of radionuclide release which contributes to collective exposure. General results of the regional marine model are presented in a form which can be combined with independent local marine models; collective intakes per unit release of various radionuclides into coastal waters are given for a series of integration times. For caesium-137 and plutonium-239 collective effective dose equivalent commitments have been calculated using a defined local marine model. Some general conclusions have been drawn from the results and there is some discussion of the various features of the modelling approach. (author)

  19. A proterozoic tectonic model for northern Australia and its economic implications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rossiter, A.G.; Ferguson, J.

    1980-01-01

    It is argued that at the end of Archaean time the Australian continent was confined to the area now occupied by the Yilgarn, Pilbara, Gawler, and Musgrave Blocks, and the southern part of the Arunta Block. During the Early Proterozoic, sedimentary and volcanic rocks were laid down in an extensive depositional zone trending roughly east-west along the northern margin of the Archaean continent. Copper and gold mineralization, commonly showing stratigraphic control, is widespread in this belt. Following deformation and metamorphism of the Early Proterozoic rocks, felsic and mafic igneous activity, and accumulation of platform sediments on the newly stabilized crust, a predominantly north-south depositional zone developed along the eastern margin of the continent during the Middle Proterozoic. Lead and zinc assume much more importance in the mineral deposits of this belt. It is postulated that the present positions of rocks of the Pine Creek and Georgetown regions are due to horizontal displacements of several hundred kilometres along major fault zones. Apparent rifting of these blocks away from palaeo-continental margins may be related to the occurrence of uraniferous granitic rocks and uranium mineralization within them via a mantle plume mechanism. Although current data are limited, tectonic environments suggested for Proterozoic mafic igneous rocks of northern Australia by their geochemistry are compatible with the geological settings of these rocks and with the tectonic model put forward. (author)

  20. A regression modeling approach for studying carbonate system variability in the northern Gulf of Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, Wiley; Mathis, Jeremy T.; Winsor, Peter; Statscewich, Hank; Whitledge, Terry E.

    2013-01-01

    northern Gulf of Alaska (GOA) shelf experiences carbonate system variability on seasonal and annual time scales, but little information exists to resolve higher frequency variability in this region. To resolve this variability using platforms-of-opportunity, we present multiple linear regression (MLR) models constructed from hydrographic data collected along the Northeast Pacific Global Ocean Ecosystems Dynamics (GLOBEC) Seward Line. The empirical algorithms predict dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and total alkalinity (TA) using observations of nitrate (NO3-), temperature, salinity and pressure from the surface to 500 m, with R2s > 0.97 and RMSE values of 11 µmol kg-1 for DIC and 9 µmol kg-1 for TA. We applied these relationships to high-resolution NO3- data sets collected during a novel 20 h glider flight and a GLOBEC mesoscale SeaSoar survey. Results from the glider flight demonstrated time/space along-isopycnal variability of aragonite saturations (Ωarag) associated with a dicothermal layer (a cold near-surface layer found in high latitude oceans) that rivaled changes seen vertically through the thermocline. The SeaSoar survey captured the uplift to aragonite saturation horizon (depth where Ωarag = 1) shoaled to a previously unseen depth in the northern GOA. This work is similar to recent studies aimed at predicting the carbonate system in continental margin settings, albeit demonstrates that a NO3--based approach can be applied to high-latitude data collected from platforms capable of high-frequency measurements.

  1. Measuring and modeling carbon balance in mountainous Northern Rocky mixed conifer forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hudiburg, T. W.; Berardi, D.; Stenzel, J.

    2016-12-01

    Drought and wildfire caused by changing precipitation patterns, increased temperatures, increased fuel loads, and decades of fire suppression are reducing forest carbon uptake from local to continental scales. This trend is especially widespread in Idaho and the intermountain west and has important implications for climate change and forest management options. Given the key role of forests in climate regulation, understanding forest response to drought and the feedbacks to the atmosphere is a key research and policy-relevant priority globally. As temperature, fire, and precipitation regimes continue to change and there is increased risk of forest mortality, measurements and modeling at temporal and spatial scales that are conducive to understanding the impacts and underlying mechanisms of carbon and nutrient cycling become critically important. Until recently, sub-daily measurements of ecosystem carbon balance have been limited in remote, mountainous terrain (e.g Northern Rocky mountain forests). Here, we combine new measurement technology and state-of-the-art ecosystem modeling to determine the impact of drought on the total carbon balance of a mature, mixed-conifer forest in Northern Idaho. Our findings indicate that drought had no impact on aboveground NPP, despite early growing season reductions in soil moisture and fine root biomass compared to non-drought years in the past. Modeled estimates of net ecosystem production (NEP) suggest that a simultaneous reduction in heterotrophic respiration increased the carbon sink for this forest. This has important implications for forest management, such as thinning where the objectives are to increase forest resilience to fire and drought, but may decrease NEP.

  2. Representing Farmer Irrigation Decisions in Northern India: Model Development from the Bottom Up.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Keeffe, J.; Buytaert, W.; Brozovic, N.; Mijic, A.

    2017-12-01

    The plains of northern India are among the most intensely populated and irrigated regions of the world. Sustaining water demand has been made possible by exploiting the vast and hugely productive aquifers underlying the Indo-Gangetic basin. However, an increasing demand from a growing population and highly variable socio-economic and environmental variables mean present resources may not be sustainable, resulting in water security becoming one of India's biggest challenges. Unless solutions which take into consideration the regions evolving anthropogenic and environmental conditions are found, the sustainability of India's water resources looks bleak. Understanding water user decisions and their potential outcome is important for development of suitable water resource management options. Computational models are commonly used to assist water use decision making, typically representing natural processes well. The inclusion of human decision making however, one of the dominant drivers of change, has lagged behind. Improved representation of irrigation water user behaviour within models provides more accurate, relevant information for irrigation management. This research conceptualizes and proceduralizes observed farmer irrigation practices, highlighting feedbacks between the environment and livelihood. It is developed using a bottom up approach, informed through field experience and stakeholder interaction in Uttar Pradesh, northern India. Real world insights are incorporated through collected information creating a realistic representation of field conditions, providing a useful tool for policy analysis and water management. The modelling framework is applied to four districts. Results suggest predicted future climate will have little direct impact on water resources, crop yields or farmer income. In addition, increased abstraction may be sustainable in some areas under carefully managed conditions. By simulating dynamic decision making, feedbacks and interactions

  3. The northern annular mode in summer and its relation to solar activity variations in the GISS ModelE

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Jae N.; Hameed, Sultan; Shindell, Drew T.

    2008-03-01

    The northern annular mode (NAM) has been successfully used in several studies to understand the variability of the winter atmosphere and its modulation by solar activity. The variability of summer circulation can also be described by the leading empirical orthogonal function (EOF) of geopotential heights. We compare the annular modes of the summer geopotential heights in the northern hemisphere stratosphere and troposphere in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) ModelE with those in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis. In the stratosphere, the summer NAM obtained from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis as well as from the ModelE simulations has the same sign throughout the northern hemisphere, but shows greater variability at low latitudes. The patterns in both analyses are consistent with the interpretation that low NAM conditions represent an enhancement of the seasonal difference between the summer and the annual averages of geopotential height, temperature and velocity distributions, while the reverse holds for high NAM conditions. Composite analysis of high and low NAM cases in both model and observation suggests that the summer stratosphere is more "summer-like" when the solar activity is near a maximum. This means that the zonal easterly wind flow is stronger and the temperature is higher than normal. Thus increased irradiance favors a low summer NAM. A quantitative comparison of the anti-correlation between the NAM and the solar forcing is presented in the model and in the observation, both of which show lower/higher NAM index in solar maximum/minimum conditions. The temperature fluctuations in simulated solar minimum conditions are greater than in solar maximum throughout the summer stratosphere. The summer NAM in the troposphere obtained from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis has a dipolar zonal structure with maximum variability over the Asian monsoon region. The corresponding EOF in ModelE has

  4. A Sensitivity Study on Modeling Black Carbon in Snow and its Radiative Forcing over the Arctic and Northern China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Qian, Yun; Wang, Hailong; Zhang, Rudong; Flanner, M. G.; Rasch, Philip J.

    2014-06-02

    Black carbon in snow (BCS) simulated in the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM5) is evaluated against measurements over Northern China and the Arctic, and its sensitivity to atmospheric deposition and two parameters that affect post-depositional enrichment is explored. The BCS concentration is overestimated (underestimated) by a factor of two in Northern China (Arctic) in the default model, but agreement with observations is good over both regions in the simulation with improvements in BC transport and deposition. Sensitivity studies indicate that uncertainty in the melt-water scavenging efficiency (MSE) parameter substantially affects BCS and its radiative forcing (by a factor of 2-7) in the Arctic through post-depositional enrichment. The MSE parameter has a relatively small effect on the magnitude of BCS seasonal cycle but can alter its phase in Northern China. The impact of the snow aging scaling factor (SAF) on BCS, partly through the post-depositional enrichment effect, shows more complex latitudinal and seasonal dependence. Similar to MSE, SAF affects more significantly the magnitude (phase) of BCS season cycle over the Arctic (Northern China). While uncertainty associated with the representation of BC transport and deposition processes in CAM5 is more important than that associated with the two snow model parameters in Northern China, the two uncertainties have comparable effect in the Arctic.

  5. Regional integrated solid waste management: an optimization model for northern Lebanon

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abou Najm, M.; El Fadel, M.; El-Taha, M.; Ayoub, G.; Al-Awar

    2000-01-01

    Full text.Increased environmental concerns and the emphasis on material and energy recovery are gradually changing the orientation of municipal solid waste (MSW) management and planning. In this context, the application of optimization techniques have been introduced to design the least cost solid waste management systems, considering the variety of management processes (recycling, composting, anaerobic digestion, incineration and land filling) and the existence of uncertainties associated with the number of system components and their interrelations. This study presents a model that was developed and applied to serve as a solid socio-economic and environmental considerations. The model accounts for solid waste generation rates, composition, collection, treatment, disposal as well as potential environmental impacts of various MSW management techniques. The model follows a linear programming formulation with the framework of dynamic optimization. The model can serve as a tool to evaluate various MSW management alternatives and obtain the optimal combination of technologies for the handling, treatment and disposal of MSW in an economic and environmentally sustainable way. The sensitivity of various waste management policies is also addressed. Finally, the region of Northern Lebanon was considered as a case study with data collected for the year 2000, to demonstrate the applicability of the model

  6. A model of analysis for the euroregion Galicia-Northern Portugal as a single tourism destination

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xulio X.Pardellas de Blas

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available The new configuration of the territory in the Euroregion Galicia-Northern Portugal is in neeed of a debate on the problems related to its development,such as organization and planning of common tourist destinations.In this paper important and value cientific literature on this topic and data from a study carried out by the authors for the Eixo Atlántico in 2001 are used to implement some instruments for their application to this territory.The model presented here is a systemic design construct of this Euroregion as a common tourist destination and provides a formal structure of its elements that may be useful to administrators and planners in their analyses and decision-taking process.

  7. Modeling demographic performance of northern spotted owls relative to forest habitat in Oregon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olson, Gail S.; Glenn, Elizabeth M.; Anthony, Robert G.; Forsman, Eric D.; Reid, Janice A.; Loschl, Peter J.; Ripple, William J.

    2004-01-01

    Northern spotted owls (Strix occidentalis caurina) are known to be associated with late-successional forests in the Pacific Northwest of the United States, but the effects of habitat on their demographic performance are relatively unknown. We developed statistical models relating owl survival and productivity to forest cover types within the Roseburg Study Area in the Oregon Coast Range of Oregon, USA. We further combined these demographic parameters using a Leslie-type matrix to obtain an estimate of habitat fitness potential for each owl territory (n = 94). We used mark–recapture methods to develop models for survival and linear mixed models for productivity. We measured forest composition and landscape patterns at 3 landscape scales centered on nest and activity sites within owl territories using an aerial photo-based map and a Geographic Information System (GIS). We also considered additional covariates such as age, sex, and presence of barred owls (Strix varia), and seasonal climate variables (temperature and precipitation) in our models. We used Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC) to rank and compare models. Survival had a quadratic relationship with the amount of late- and mid-seral forests within 1,500 m of nesting centers. Survival also was influenced by the amount of precipitation during the nesting season. Only 16% of the variability in survival was accounted for by our best model, but 85% of this was due to the habitat variable. Reproductive rates fluctuated biennially and were positively related to the amount of edge between late- and mid-seral forests and other habitat classes. Reproductive rates also were influenced by parent age, amount of precipitation during nesting season, and presence of barred owls. Our best model accounted for 84% of the variability in productivity, but only 3% of that was due to the habitat variable. Estimates of habitat fitness potential (which may range from 0 to infinity) for the 94 territories ranged from 0.74 to 1

  8. Estimating future dental services' demand and supply: a model for Northern Germany.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jäger, Ralf; van den Berg, Neeltje; Hoffmann, Wolfgang; Jordan, Rainer A; Schwendicke, Falk

    2016-04-01

    To plan dental services, a spatial estimation of future demands and supply is required. We aimed at estimating demand and supply in 2030 in Northern Germany based on the expected local socio-demography and oral-health-related morbidity, and the predicted number of dentists and their working time. All analyses were performed on zip-code level. Register data were used to determine the number of retiring dentists and to construct regression models for estimating the number of dentists moving into each zip-code area until 2030. Demand was modelled using projected demography and morbidities. Demand-supply ratios were evaluated and spatial analyses applied. Sensitivity analyses were employed to assess robustness of our findings. Compared with 2011, the population decreased (-7% to -11%) and aged (from mean 46 to 51 years) until 2030. Oral-health-related morbidity changed, leading to more periodontal and fewer prosthetic treatments needs, with the overall demand decreasing in all scenarios (-25% to -33%). In contrast, the overall number of dentists did only limitedly change, resulting in moderate decrease in the supplied service quantities (max. -22%). Thus, the demand-supply ratio increased in all but the worst case scenario, but was unequally distributed between spatial units, with several areas being over- and some being under- or none-serviced in 2030. Within the limitations of the underlying data and the required assumptions, this study expects an increasingly polarized ratio of dental services demand and supply in Northern Germany. Our estimation allows to assess the impact of different influence factors on demand or supply and to specifically identify potential challenges for workforce planning and regulation in different spatial units. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  9. Minimizing the wintertime low bias of Northern Hemisphere carbon monoxide in global model simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stein, Olaf; Schultz, Martin G.; Bouarar, Idir; Clark, Hannah; Huijnen, Vincent; Gaudel, Audrey; George, Maya; Clerbaux, Cathy

    2015-04-01

    Carbon monoxide (CO) is a product of incomplete combustion and is also produced from oxidation of volatile organic compounds (VOC) in the atmosphere. It is of interest as an indirect greenhouse gas and an air pollutant causing health effects and is thus subject to emission restrictions. CO acts as a major sink for the OH radical and as a precursor for tropospheric ozone and affects the oxidizing capacity of the atmosphere as well as regional air quality. Despite the developments in the global modelling of chemistry and of the parameterization of the physical processes, CO concentrations remain underestimated during NH winter by most state-of-the-art chemical transport models. The resulting model bias can in principle originate from either an underestimation of CO sources or an overestimation of its sinks. We address both the role of sources and sinks with a series of MOZART chemistry transport model sensitivity simulations for the year 2008 and compare our results to observational data from ground-based stations, satellite observations, and from MOZAIC tropospheric profile measurements on passenger aircraft. Our base case simulation using the MACCity emission inventory (Granier et al. 2011) underestimates the near-surface Northern Hemispheric CO mixing ratios by more than 20 ppb from December to April with a maximal bias of 40 ppb in January. The bias is strongest for the European region (up to 75 ppb in January). From our sensitivity studies the mismatch between observed and modelled atmospheric CO concentrations can be explained by a combination of the following emission inventory shortcuts: (i) missing anthropogenic wintertime CO emissions from traffic or other combustion processes, (ii) missing anthropogenic VOC emissions, (iii) an exaggerated downward trend in the RCP8.5 scenario underlying the MACCity inventory, (iv) a lack of knowledge about the seasonality of emissions. Deficiencies in the parameterization of the dry deposition velocities can also lead to

  10. Influence of blocking on Northern European and Western Russian heatwaves in large climate model ensembles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaller, N.; Sillmann, J.; Anstey, J.; Fischer, E. M.; Grams, C. M.; Russo, S.

    2018-05-01

    Better preparedness for summer heatwaves could mitigate their adverse effects on society. This can potentially be attained through an increased understanding of the relationship between heatwaves and one of their main dynamical drivers, atmospheric blocking. In the 1979–2015 period, we find that there is a significant correlation between summer heatwave magnitudes and the number of days influenced by atmospheric blocking in Northern Europe and Western Russia. Using three large global climate model ensembles, we find similar correlations, indicating that these three models are able to represent the relationship between extreme temperature and atmospheric blocking, despite having biases in their simulation of individual climate variables such as temperature or geopotential height. Our results emphasize the need to use large ensembles of different global climate models as single realizations do not always capture this relationship. The three large ensembles further suggest that the relationship between summer heatwaves and atmospheric blocking will not change in the future. This could be used to statistically model heatwaves with atmospheric blocking as a covariate and aid decision-makers in planning disaster risk reduction and adaptation to climate change.

  11. Ductile bookshelf faulting: A new kinematic model for Cenozoic deformation in northern Tibet

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zuza, A. V.; Yin, A.

    2013-12-01

    It has been long recognized that the most dominant features on the northern Tibetan Plateau are the >1000 km left-slip strike-slip faults (e.g., the Atyn Tagh, Kunlun, and Haiyuan faults). Early workers used the presence of these faults, especially the Kunlun and Haiyuan faults, as evidence for eastward lateral extrusion of the plateau, but their low documented offsets--100s of km or less--can not account for the 2500 km of convergence between India and Asia. Instead, these faults may result from north-south right-lateral simple shear due to the northward indentation of India, which leads to the clockwise rotation of the strike-slip faults and left-lateral slip (i.e., bookshelf faulting). With this idea, deformation is still localized on discrete fault planes, and 'microplates' or blocks rotate and/or translate with little internal deformation. As significant internal deformation occurs across northern Tibet within strike-slip-bounded domains, there is need for a coherent model to describe all of the deformational features. We also note the following: (1) geologic offsets and Quaternary slip rates of both the Kunlun and Haiyuan faults vary along strike and appear to diminish to the east, (2) the faults appear to kinematically link with thrust belts (e.g., Qilian Shan, Liupan Shan, Longmen Shan, and Qimen Tagh) and extensional zones (e.g., Shanxi, Yinchuan, and Qinling grabens), and (3) temporal relationships between the major deformation zones and the strike-slip faults (e.g., simultaneous enhanced deformation and offset in the Qilian Shan and Liupan Shan, and the Haiyuan fault, at 8 Ma). We propose a new kinematic model to describe the active deformation in northern Tibet: a ductile-bookshelf-faulting model. With this model, right-lateral simple shear leads to clockwise vertical axis rotation of the Qaidam and Qilian blocks, and left-slip faulting. This motion creates regions of compression and extension, dependent on the local boundary conditions (e.g., rigid

  12. Analyzing Source Apportioned Methane in Northern California During DISCOVER-AQ-CA Using Airborne Measurements and Model Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Matthew S.

    2014-01-01

    This study analyzes source apportioned methane (CH4) emissions and atmospheric concentrations in northern California during the Discover-AQ-CA field campaign using airborne measurement data and model simulations. Source apportioned CH4 emissions from the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR) version 4.2 were applied in the 3-D chemical transport model GEOS-Chem and analyzed using airborne measurements taken as part of the Alpha Jet Atmospheric eXperiment over the San Francisco Bay Area (SFBA) and northern San Joaquin Valley (SJV). During the time period of the Discover-AQ-CA field campaign EDGAR inventory CH4 emissions were 5.30 Gg/day (Gg 1.0 109 grams) (equating to 1.9 103 Gg/yr) for all of California. According to EDGAR, the SFBA and northern SJV region contributes 30 of total emissions from California. Source apportionment analysis during this study shows that CH4 concentrations over this area of northern California are largely influenced by global emissions from wetlands and local/global emissions from gas and oil production and distribution, waste treatment processes, and livestock management. Model simulations, using EDGAR emissions, suggest that the model under-estimates CH4 concentrations in northern California (average normalized mean bias (NMB) -5 and linear regression slope 0.25). The largest negative biases in the model were calculated on days when hot spots of local emission sources were measured and atmospheric CH4 concentrations reached values 3.0 parts per million (model NMB -10). Sensitivity emission studies conducted during this research suggest that local emissions of CH4 from livestock management processes are likely the primary source of the negative model bias. These results indicate that a variety, and larger quantity, of measurement data needs to be obtained and additional research is necessary to better quantify source apportioned CH4 emissions in California and further the understanding of the physical processes

  13. PM10 modeling in the Oviedo urban area (Northern Spain) by using multivariate adaptive regression splines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nieto, Paulino José García; Antón, Juan Carlos Álvarez; Vilán, José Antonio Vilán; García-Gonzalo, Esperanza

    2014-10-01

    The aim of this research work is to build a regression model of the particulate matter up to 10 micrometers in size (PM10) by using the multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) technique in the Oviedo urban area (Northern Spain) at local scale. This research work explores the use of a nonparametric regression algorithm known as multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) which has the ability to approximate the relationship between the inputs and outputs, and express the relationship mathematically. In this sense, hazardous air pollutants or toxic air contaminants refer to any substance that may cause or contribute to an increase in mortality or serious illness, or that may pose a present or potential hazard to human health. To accomplish the objective of this study, the experimental dataset of nitrogen oxides (NOx), carbon monoxide (CO), sulfur dioxide (SO2), ozone (O3) and dust (PM10) were collected over 3 years (2006-2008) and they are used to create a highly nonlinear model of the PM10 in the Oviedo urban nucleus (Northern Spain) based on the MARS technique. One main objective of this model is to obtain a preliminary estimate of the dependence between PM10 pollutant in the Oviedo urban area at local scale. A second aim is to determine the factors with the greatest bearing on air quality with a view to proposing health and lifestyle improvements. The United States National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) establishes the limit values of the main pollutants in the atmosphere in order to ensure the health of healthy people. Firstly, this MARS regression model captures the main perception of statistical learning theory in order to obtain a good prediction of the dependence among the main pollutants in the Oviedo urban area. Secondly, the main advantages of MARS are its capacity to produce simple, easy-to-interpret models, its ability to estimate the contributions of the input variables, and its computational efficiency. Finally, on the basis of

  14. A New Model of the Early Paleozoic Tectonics and Evolutionary History in the Northern Qinling, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Yunpeng; Zhang, Guowei; Yang, Zhao; Qu, Hongjun; Liu, Xiaoming

    2010-05-01

    Qinling Island-arc Terrane and the Northern China Block caused by closing of the Early Paleozoic back-arc basin. Additionally, the studies of the metamorphism show that there are two zones of high / ultra-high pressure metamorphic rocks outcropping along the both side of the Northern Qingling island-arc terrane. On the north, it is characterized by eclogite and coesite outcropping in the Guanpo area, and the metamorphic zircon U-Pb age of 507±38 Ma and 509±12 Ma by means of SHRIM (Yang et al., 2002). Meanwhile, there also exist some high pressure basic granulite (Liu et al., 1995) and felsic granulite (Liu et al., 1996) distributing in the Xigou fault on the south margin of the Northern Qingling island-arc terrane. Zircon U-Pb ages of 485±3.3 Ma by means of LA-ICP-MS method (Chen et al., 2004) and 518±12 Ma by means of SHRIM (Liu et al., 2003) constrain the time of the metamorphism. All these metamorphic data suggest the Northern Qingling island-arc terrane had been evolved into a deep subduction event during 485-518 Ma. Based on all above evidences, we infer a new model about the tectonics and evolutionary history of the Norhtern Qinling Terrane. It is emphasized that the Early Paleozoic tectonics between the North China and Southern China Blocks had existed an ocean, island-arc and back-arc basin, and evolved into four stages of evolutionary stages: 1) initial spreading along the Shangdan zone during 516-523 Ma; 2) maturated ocean along the Shangdan zone during 516-471 Ma; 3) subduction along the south side of the Northern Qinling Terrane and formation of the Back-arc basin along the north side of the Northern Qinling Terrane during518-514; 4) closing of the back-arc basin, collision between the Northern Qingling island-arc terrane and the Northern China Block, and deep subduction of the Northern Qingling island-arc terrane during 518-485Ma. This work was supported by NSFC (40772140 & 40972140)

  15. Developing and testing a landscape habitat suitability model for fisher (Martes pennanti) in forests of interior northern California

    Science.gov (United States)

    W.J. Zielinski; J. R. Dunk; J. S. Yaeger; D. W. LaPlante

    2010-01-01

    The fisher is warranted for protection under the Endangered Species Act in the western United States and, as such, it is especially important that conservation and management actions are based on sound scientific information. We developed a landscape-scale suitability model for interior northern California to predict the probability of detecting fishers and to identify...

  16. Simulating the Holocene climate evolution at northern high latitudes using a coupled atmosphere-sea ice-ocean-vegetation model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Renssen, H.; Goosse, H.; Fichefet, T.; Brovkin, V.; Driesschaert, E.; Wolk, F.

    2005-01-01

    The response of the climate at high northern latitudes to slowly changing external forcings was studied in a 9,000-year long simulation with the coupled atmosphere-sea ice-ocean-vegetation model ECBilt-CLIO-VECODE. Only long-term changes in insolation and atmospheric CO

  17. Can a coupled meteorology–chemistry model reproduce the historical trend in aerosol direct radiative effects over the Northern Hemisphere?

    Science.gov (United States)

    The ability of a coupled meteorology–chemistry model, i.e., Weather Research and Forecast and Community Multiscale Air Quality (WRF-CMAQ), to reproduce the historical trend in aerosol optical depth (AOD) and clear-sky shortwave radiation (SWR) over the Northern Hemisphere h...

  18. Analyzing source apportioned methane in northern California during Discover-AQ-CA using airborne measurements and model simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Matthew S.; Yates, Emma L.; Iraci, Laura T.; Loewenstein, Max; Tadić, Jovan M.; Wecht, Kevin J.; Jeong, Seongeun; Fischer, Marc L.

    2014-12-01

    This study analyzes source apportioned methane (CH4) emissions and atmospheric mixing ratios in northern California during the Discover-AQ-CA field campaign using airborne measurement data and model simulations. Source apportioned CH4 emissions from the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR) version 4.2 were applied in the 3-D chemical transport model GEOS-Chem and analyzed using airborne measurements taken as part of the Alpha Jet Atmospheric eXperiment over the San Francisco Bay Area (SFBA) and northern San Joaquin Valley (SJV). During the time period of the Discover-AQ-CA field campaign EDGAR inventory CH4 emissions were ∼5.30 Gg day-1 (Gg = 1.0 × 109 g) (equating to ∼1.90 × 103 Gg yr-1) for all of California. According to EDGAR, the SFBA and northern SJV region contributes ∼30% of total CH4 emissions from California. Source apportionment analysis during this study shows that CH4 mixing ratios over this area of northern California are largely influenced by global emissions from wetlands and local/global emissions from gas and oil production and distribution, waste treatment processes, and livestock management. Model simulations, using EDGAR emissions, suggest that the model under-estimates CH4 mixing ratios in northern California (average normalized mean bias (NMB) = -5.2% and linear regression slope = 0.20). The largest negative biases in the model were calculated on days when large amounts of CH4 were measured over local emission sources and atmospheric CH4 mixing ratios reached values >2.5 parts per million. Sensitivity emission studies conducted during this research suggest that local emissions of CH4 from livestock management processes are likely the primary source of the negative model bias. These results indicate that a variety, and larger quantity, of measurement data needs to be obtained and additional research is necessary to better quantify source apportioned CH4 emissions in California.

  19. Geodetic measurements and models of rifting in Northern Iceland for 1993-1998 (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ali, T.; Feigl, K.; Thurber, C. H.; Masterlark, T.; Carr, B.; Sigmundsson, F.

    2010-12-01

    Rifting occurs as episodes of active deformation in individual rift segments of the Northern Volcanic Zone (NVZ) in Iceland. Here we simulate deformation around the Krafla central volcano and rift system in NVZ in order to explain InSAR data acquired between 1993 and 1998. The General Inversion for Phase Technique (GIPhT) is used to model the InSAR phase data directly, without unwrapping [Feigl and Thurber, Geophys. J. Int., 2009]. Using a parallel simulated annealing algorithm, GIPhT minimizes the non-linear cost function that quantifies the misfit between observed and modeled values of the phase. We test the hypothesis that the observed deformation can be explained by a combination of at least three processes including: (i) secular plate spreading, (ii) post rifting relaxation following the Krafla rifting episode (1975-1984), and (iii) deflation of a shallow magma chamber beneath the central volcano. The calibration parameters include material properties of upper/lower crust and mantle as well as flux rates for the elements of the plumbing system. The best fitting Maxwell model favors a stronger lower crust (~1.0E+20 Pa.s) and a mantle viscosity of ~1.0E+18 Pa.s as well as a shallow deflating magma chamber. The deformation appears to be linear in time over the observed interval.

  20. Using Remote Sensing Data to Parameterize Ice Jam Modeling for a Northern Inland Delta

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fan Zhang

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available The Slave River is a northern river in Canada, with ice being an important component of its flow regime for at least half of the year. During the spring breakup period, ice jams and ice-jam flooding can occur in the Slave River Delta, which is of benefit for the replenishment of moisture and sediment required to maintain the ecological integrity of the delta. To better understand the ice jam processes that lead to flooding, as well as the replenishment of the delta, the one-dimensional hydraulic river ice model RIVICE was implemented to simulate and explore ice jam formation in the Slave River Delta. Incoming ice volume, a crucial input parameter for RIVICE, was determined by the novel approach of using MODIS space-born remote sensing imagery. Space-borne and air-borne remote sensing data were used to parameterize the upstream ice volume available for ice jamming. Gauged data was used to complement modeling calibration and validation. HEC-RAS, another one-dimensional hydrodynamic model, was used to determine ice volumes required for equilibrium jams and the upper limit of ice volume that a jam can sustain, as well as being used as a threshold for the volumes estimated by the dynamic ice jam simulations using RIVICE. Parameter sensitivity analysis shows that morphological and hydraulic properties have great impacts on the ice jam length and water depth in the Slave River Delta.

  1. Application of Bayesian methods to habitat selection modeling of the northern spotted owl in California: new statistical methods for wildlife research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howard B. Stauffer; Cynthia J. Zabel; Jeffrey R. Dunk

    2005-01-01

    We compared a set of competing logistic regression habitat selection models for Northern Spotted Owls (Strix occidentalis caurina) in California. The habitat selection models were estimated, compared, evaluated, and tested using multiple sample datasets collected on federal forestlands in northern California. We used Bayesian methods in interpreting...

  2. Constraints on High Northern Photosynthesis Increase Using Earth System Models and a Set of Independent Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winkler, A. J.; Brovkin, V.; Myneni, R.; Alexandrov, G.

    2017-12-01

    Plant growth in the northern high latitudes benefits from increasing temperature (radiative effect) and CO2 fertilization as a consequence of rising atmospheric CO2 concentration. This enhanced gross primary production (GPP) is evident in large scale increase in summer time greening over the 36-year record of satellite observations. In this time period also various global ecosystem models simulate a greening trend in terms of increasing leaf area index (LAI). We also found a persistent greening trend analyzing historical simulations of Earth system models (ESM) participating in Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). However, these models span a large range in strength of the LAI trend, expressed as sensitivity to both key environmental factors, temperature and CO2 concentration. There is also a wide spread in magnitude of the associated increase of terrestrial GPP among the ESMs, which contributes to pronounced uncertainties in projections of future climate change. Here we demonstrate that there is a linear relationship across the CMIP5 model ensemble between projected GPP changes and historical LAI sensitivity, which allows using the observed LAI sensitivity as an "emerging constraint" on GPP estimation at future CO2 concentration. This constrained estimate of future GPP is substantially higher than the traditional multi-model mean suggesting that the majority of current ESMs may be significantly underestimating carbon fixation by vegetation in NHL. We provide three independent lines of evidence in analyzing observed and simulated CO2 amplitude as well as atmospheric CO2 inversion products to arrive at the same conclusion.

  3. Use of generalized linear models and digital data in a forest inventory of Northern Utah

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moisen, Gretchen G.; Edwards, Thomas C.

    1999-01-01

    Forest inventories, like those conducted by the Forest Service's Forest Inventory and Analysis Program (FIA) in the Rocky Mountain Region, are under increased pressure to produce better information at reduced costs. Here we describe our efforts in Utah to merge satellite-based information with forest inventory data for the purposes of reducing the costs of estimates of forest population totals and providing spatial depiction of forest resources. We illustrate how generalized linear models can be used to construct approximately unbiased and efficient estimates of population totals while providing a mechanism for prediction in space for mapping of forest structure. We model forest type and timber volume of five tree species groups as functions of a variety of predictor variables in the northern Utah mountains. Predictor variables include elevation, aspect, slope, geographic coordinates, as well as vegetation cover types based on satellite data from both the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) and Thematic Mapper (TM) platforms. We examine the relative precision of estimates of area by forest type and mean cubic-foot volumes under six different models, including the traditional double sampling for stratification strategy. Only very small gains in precision were realized through the use of expensive photointerpreted or TM-based data for stratification, while models based on topography and spatial coordinates alone were competitive. We also compare the predictive capability of the models through various map accuracy measures. The models including the TM-based vegetation performed best overall, while topography and spatial coordinates alone provided substantial information at very low cost.

  4. Gap Models as Tools for Sustainable Development under Environmental Changes in Northern Eurasia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shugart, H. H., Jr.; Wang, B.; Brazhnik, K.; Armstrong, A. H.; Foster, A.

    2017-12-01

    Agent-based models of complex systems or as used in this review, Individual-based Models (IBMs), emerged in the 1960s and early 1970s, across diverse disciplines from astronomy to zoology. IBMs arose from a deeply embedded ecological tradition of understanding the dynamics of ecosystems from a "bottom-up" accounting of the interactions of the parts. In this case, individual trees are principal among the parts. Because they are computationally demanding, these models have prospered as the power of digital computers has increased exponentially over the decades following the 1970s. Forest IBMs are no longer computationally bound from developing continental- or global-scale simulations of responses of forests to climate and other changes. Gap models simulate the changes in forests by simulating the birth, growth and death of each individual tree on small plots of land that in summation comprise a forest (or set of sample plots on a forested landscape or region). Currently, gap models have grown from continental-scale and even global-scale applications to assess the potential consequences of climate change on natural forests. These predictions are valuable in the planning and anticipatory decision-making needed to sustainably manage a vast region such as Northern Eurasia. Modifications to the models have enabled simulation of disturbances including fire, insect outbreak and harvest. These disturbances have significant exogenous drivers, notably weather variables, but their effects are also a function of the endogenous conditions involving the structure of forest itself. This feedback between the forest and its environment can in some cases produce hysteresis and multiple-stable operating-regimes for forests. Such responses, often characterized as "tipping points" could play a significant role in increasing risk under environmental change, notably global warming. Such dynamics in a management context imply regional systems that could be "unforgiving" of management

  5. Testing a social ecological model for relations between political violence and child adjustment in Northern Ireland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cummings, E Mark; Merrilees, Christine E; Schermerhorn, Alice C; Goeke-Morey, Marcie C; Shirlow, Peter; Cairns, Ed

    2010-05-01

    Relations between political violence and child adjustment are matters of international concern. Past research demonstrates the significance of community, family, and child psychological processes in child adjustment, supporting study of interrelations between multiple social ecological factors and child adjustment in contexts of political violence. Testing a social ecological model, 300 mothers and their children (M = 12.28 years, SD = 1.77) from Catholic and Protestant working class neighborhoods in Belfast, Northern Ireland, completed measures of community discord, family relations, and children's regulatory processes (i.e., emotional security) and outcomes. Historical political violence in neighborhoods based on objective records (i.e., politically motivated deaths) were related to family members' reports of current sectarian antisocial behavior and nonsectarian antisocial behavior. Interparental conflict and parental monitoring and children's emotional security about both the community and family contributed to explanatory pathways for relations between sectarian antisocial behavior in communities and children's adjustment problems. The discussion evaluates support for social ecological models for relations between political violence and child adjustment and its implications for understanding relations in other parts of the world.

  6. Water Budget Model for a Remnant of the Historic Northern Everglades

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arceneaux, J. C.; Meselhe, E. A.; Habib, E.; Waldon, M. G.

    2006-12-01

    The Arthur R. Marshall Loxahatchee National Wildlife Refuge overlays an area termed Water Conservation Area 1 (WCA-1, a 143,000 acre (58,000 ha) freshwater wetland. It is a remnant of the northern Everglades in Palm Beach County, Florida, USA. Sheetflow that naturally would flow across the Refuge wetlands was disrupted in the 1950s and early 1960s by construction of stormwater pumps, and levees with associated borrow canals which hydraulically isolated the Refuge from its watershed. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Services (USFWS) concludes that changes in the water quantity, timing, and quality have caused negative impacts to the Refuge ecosystem. It is a top priority of the Refuge to ensure appropriate management that will produce maximum benefits for fish and wildlife, while meeting flood control and water supply needs. Models can improve our understanding and support improvement in these management decisions. The development of a water budget for the Loxahatchee Refuge will provide one useful modeling tool in support of Refuge water management decisions. The water budget model reported here was developed as a double- box (2-compartment) model with a daily time step that predicts temporal variations of water level in the Refuge rim canal and interior marsh based on observed inflows, outflows, precipitation, and evapotranspiration. The water budget model was implemented using Microsoft EXCEL. The model calibration period was from January 1, 1995 to December 31, 1999; the validation period extended from January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2004. Statistical analyses demonstrate the utility of this simple water budget model to predict the temporal variation of water levels in both the Refuge marsh and rim canal. The Refuge water budget model is currently being applied to evaluate various water management scenarios for the Refuge. Preliminary results modeling the mass balance of water quality constituents, including chloride, total phosphorus are encouraging. Success of this

  7. Assessment of model estimates of land-atmosphere CO2 exchange across northern Eurasia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rawlins, M.A.; McGuire, A.D.; Kimball, J.S.; Dass, P.; Lawrence, D.; Burke, E.; Chen, X.; Delire, C.; Koven, C.; MacDougall, A.; Peng, S.; Rinke, A.; Saito, K.; Zhang, W.; Alkama, R.; Bohn, T. J.; Ciais, P.; Decharme, B.; Gouttevin, I.; Hajima, T.; Ji, D.; Krinner, G.; Lettenmaier, D.P.; Miller, P.; Moore, J.C.; Smith, B.; Sueyoshi, T.

    2015-01-01

    A warming climate is altering land-atmosphere exchanges of carbon, with a potential for increased vegetation productivity as well as the mobilization of permafrost soil carbon stores. Here we investigate land-atmosphere carbon dioxide (CO2) cycling through analysis of net ecosystem productivity (NEP) and its component fluxes of gross primary productivity (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (ER) and soil carbon residence time, simulated by a set of land surface models (LSMs) over a region spanning the drainage basin of Northern Eurasia. The retrospective simulations cover the period 1960–2009 at 0.5° resolution, which is a scale common among many global carbon and climate model simulations. Model performance benchmarks were drawn from comparisons against both observed CO2 fluxes derived from site-based eddy covariance measurements as well as regional-scale GPP estimates based on satellite remote-sensing data. The site-based comparisons depict a tendency for overestimates in GPP and ER for several of the models, particularly at the two sites to the south. For several models the spatial pattern in GPP explains less than half the variance in the MODIS MOD17 GPP product. Across the models NEP increases by as little as 0.01 to as much as 0.79 g C m−2 yr−2, equivalent to 3 to 340 % of the respective model means, over the analysis period. For the multimodel average the increase is 135 % of the mean from the first to last 10 years of record (1960–1969 vs. 2000–2009), with a weakening CO2 sink over the latter decades. Vegetation net primary productivity increased by 8 to 30 % from the first to last 10 years, contributing to soil carbon storage gains. The range in regional mean NEP among the group is twice the multimodel mean, indicative of the uncertainty in CO2 sink strength. The models simulate that inputs to the soil carbon pool exceeded losses, resulting in a net soil carbon gain amid a decrease in residence time. Our analysis points to improvements in model

  8. Performances of the snow accumulation melting model SAMM: results in the Northern Apennines test area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lagomarsino, Daniela; Martelloni, Gianluca; Segoni, Samuele; Catani, Filippo; Fanti, Riccardo

    2013-04-01

    In this work we propose a snow accumulation-melting model (SAMM) to forecast the snowpack height and we compare the results with a simple temperature index model and an improved version of the latter.For this purpose we used rainfall, temperature and snowpack thickness 5-years data series from 7 weather stations in the Northern Apennines (Emilia Romagna Region, Italy). SAMM is based on two modules modelling the snow accumulation and the snowmelt processes. Each module is composed by two equations: a mass conservation equation is solved to model snowpack thickness and an empirical equation is used for the snow density. The processes linked to the accumulation/depletion of the snowpack (e.g. compression of the snowpack due to newly fallen snow and effects of rainfall) are modelled identifying limiting and inhibitory factors according to a kinetic approach. The model depends on 13 empirical parameters, whose optimal values were defined with an optimization algorithm (simplex flexible) using calibration measures of snowpack thickness. From an operational point of view, SAMM uses as input data only temperature and rainfall measurements, bringing the additional advantage of a relatively easy implementation. In order to verify the improvement of SAMM with respect to a temperature-index model, the latter was applied considering, for the amount of snow melt, the following equation: M = fm(T-T0), where M is hourly melt, fm is the melting factor and T0 is a threshold temperature. In this case the calculation of the depth of the snowpack requires the use of 3 parameters: fm, T0 and ?0 (the mean density of the snowpack). We also performed a simulation by replacing the SAMM melting module with the above equation and leaving unchanged the accumulation module: in this way we obtained a model with 9 parameters. The simulations results suggest that any further extension of the simple temperature index model brings some improvements with a consequent decrease of the mean error

  9. Modeling the impacts of dryland agricultural reclamation on groundwater resources in Northern Egypt using sparse data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Switzman, Harris; Coulibaly, Paulin; Adeel, Zafar

    2015-01-01

    Demand for freshwater in many dryland environments is exerting negative impacts on the quality and availability of groundwater resources, particularly in areas where demand is high due to irrigation or industrial water requirements to support dryland agricultural reclamation. Often however, information available to diagnose the drivers of groundwater degradation and assess management options through modeling is sparse, particularly in low and middle-income countries. This study presents an approach for generating transient groundwater model inputs to assess the long-term impacts of dryland agricultural land reclamation on groundwater resources in a highly data-sparse context. The approach was applied to the area of Wadi El Natrun in Northern Egypt, where dryland reclamation and the associated water use has been aggressive since the 1960s. Statistical distributions of water use information were constructed from a variety of sparse field and literature estimates and then combined with remote sensing data in spatio-temporal infilling model to produce the groundwater model inputs of well-pumping and surface recharge. An ensemble of groundwater model inputs were generated and used in a 3D groundwater flow (MODFLOW) of Wadi El Natrun's multi-layer aquifer system to analyze trends in water levels and water budgets over time. Validation of results against monitoring records, and model performance statistics demonstrated that despite the extremely sparse data, the approach used in this study was capable of simulating the cumulative impacts of agricultural land reclamation reasonably well. The uncertainty associated with the groundwater model itself was greater than that associated with the ensemble of well-pumping and surface recharge estimates. Water budget analysis of the groundwater model output revealed that groundwater recharge has not changed significantly over time, while pumping has. As a result of these trends, groundwater was estimated to be in a deficit of

  10. Performance analysis of coupled and uncoupled hydrodynamic and wave models in the northern Adriatic Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Busca, Claudia; Coluccelli, Alessandro; Valentini, Andrea; Benetazzo, Alvise; Bonaldo, Davide; Bortoluzzi, Giovanni; Carniel, Sandro; Falcieri, Francesco; Paccagnella, Tiziana; Ravaioli, Mariangela; Riminucci, Francesco; Sclavo, Mauro; Russo, Aniello

    2014-05-01

    The complex dynamics of the Adriatic Sea are the result of geographical position, orography and bathymetry, as well as rivers discharge and meteorological conditions that influence, more strongly, the shallow northern part. Such complexity requires a constant monitoring of marine conditions in order to support several activities (marine resources management, naval operations, emergency management, shipping, tourism, as well as scientific ones). Platforms, buoys and mooring located in Adriatic Sea supply almost continuously real time punctual information, which can be spatially extended, with some limitations, by drifters and remote sensing. Operational forecasting systems represent valid tools to provide a complete tridimensional coverage of the area, with a high spatial and temporal resolution. The Hydro-Meteo-Clima Service of the Emilia-Romagna Environmental Agency (ARPA-SIMC, Bologna, Italy) and the Dept. of Life and Environmental Sciences of Università Politecnica delle Marche (DISVA-UNIVPM, Ancona, Italy), in collaboration with the Institute of Marine Science of the National Research Council (ISMAR-CNR, Italy) operationally run several wave and hydrodynamic models on the Adriatic Sea. The main implementations are based on the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS), the wave model Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN), and the coupling of the former two models in the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport (COAWST) system. Horizontal resolutions of the different systems range from the 2 km of AdriaROMS to the 0.5 km of the recently implemented northern Adriatic COAWST. Forecasts are produced every day for the subsequent 72 hour with hourly resolution. All the systems compute the fluxes exchanged through the interface with the atmosphere from the numerical weather prediction system named COSMO-I7, an implementation for Italy of the Consortium for Small-scale Modeling (COSMO) model, at 7 km horizontal resolution. Considering the several operational

  11. Analysis of overdeepened valleys using the digital elevation model of the bedrock surface of Northern Switzerland

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jordan, P.

    2010-11-15

    Based on surface and borehole information, together with pre-existing regional and local interpretations, a 7,150 square kilometre Raster Digital Elevation Model (DEM) of the bedrock surface of northern Switzerland was constructed using a 25 m cell size. This model represents a further important step in the understanding of Quaternary sediment distribution and is open to a broad field of application and analysis, including hydrogeological, geotechnical and geophysical studies as well as research in the field of Pleistocene landscape evolution. An analysis of the overdeepened valleys in the whole model area and, more specifically in the Reuss area, shows that, in most cases, overdeepening is restricted to the areas covered by the Last Glaciation Maximum (LGM). However, at various locations relatively narrow overdeepened valleys outreach the tongue basins and the LGM ice shield limits. Therefore, an earlier and further-reaching glacial event has probably contributed significantly to the overdeepening of these valleys. No significant overdeepening has been identified downstream of Boettstein (Aare) and Kaiserstuhl (Rhine), although the ice extended considerably further downstream, at least during the most extensive glaciation. Except for the bedrock between Brugg and Boettstein, no overdeepened valleys are found significantly north of the outcrop of Mesozoic limestone of the Folded and Tabular Jura. A detailed analysis of the Reuss area shows that the Lake and Suhre valleys are separated from the Emmen-Gisikon Reuss valley basin by a significant bedrock barrier. The individual bedrock valleys are divided into several sub-basins, indicating a multiphase evolution of the valleys. Some of the swells or barriers separating the sub-basins coincide with known late LGM retreat stages. In the Suhre valley, an old fluvial valley floor with restricted overdeepened sections is documented. (author)

  12. Predictive model for disinfection by-product in Alexandria drinking water, northern west of Egypt.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdullah, Ali M; Hussona, Salah El-dien

    2013-10-01

    Chlorine has been utilized in the early stages of water treatment processes as disinfectant. Disinfection for drinking water reduces the risk of pathogenic infection but may pose a chemical threat to human health due to disinfection residues and their by-products (DBP) when the organic and inorganic precursors are present in water. In the last two decades, many modeling attempts have been made to predict the occurrence of DBP in drinking water. Models have been developed based on data generated in laboratory-scale and field-scale investigations. The objective of this paper is to develop a predictive model for DBP formation in the Alexandria governorate located at the northern west of Egypt based on field-scale investigations as well as laboratory-controlled experimentations. The present study showed that the correlation coefficient between trihalomethanes (THM) predicted and THM measured was R (2)=0.88 and the minimum deviation percentage between THM predicted and THM measured was 0.8 %, the maximum deviation percentage was 89.3 %, and the average deviation was 17.8 %, while the correlation coefficient between dichloroacetic acid (DCAA) predicted and DCAA measured was R (2)=0.98 and the minimum deviation percentage between DCAA predicted and DCAA measured was 1.3 %, the maximum deviation percentage was 47.2 %, and the average deviation was 16.6 %. In addition, the correlation coefficient between trichloroacetic acid (TCAA) predicted and TCAA measured was R (2)=0.98 and the minimum deviation percentage between TCAA predicted and TCAA measured was 4.9 %, the maximum deviation percentage was 43.0 %, and the average deviation was 16.0 %.

  13. Analysis of longitudinal data of beef cattle raised on pasture from northern Brazil using nonlinear models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lopes, Fernando B; da Silva, Marcelo C; Marques, Ednira G; McManus, Concepta M

    2012-12-01

    This study was undertaken to aim of estimating the genetic parameters and trends for asymptotic weight (A) and maturity rate (k) of Nellore cattle from northern Brazil. The data set was made available by the Brazilian Association of Zebu Breeders and collected between the years of 1997 and 2007. The Von Bertalanffy, Brody, Gompertz, and logistic nonlinear models were fitted by the Gauss-Newton method to weight-age data of 45,895 animals collected quarterly of the birth to 750 days old. The curve parameters were analyzed using the procedures GLM and CORR. The estimation of (co)variance components and genetic parameters was obtained using the MTDFREML software. The estimated heritability coefficients were 0.21 ± 0.013 and 0.25 ± 0.014 for asymptotic weight and maturity rate, respectively. This indicates that selection for any trait shall results in genetic progress in the herd. The genetic correlation between A and k was negative (-0.57 ± 0.03) and indicated that animals selected for high maturity rate shall result in low asymptotic weight. The Von Bertalanffy function is adequate to establish the mean growth patterns and to predict the adult weight of Nellore cattle. This model is more accurate in predicting the birth weight of these animals and has better overall fit. The prediction of adult weight using nonlinear functions can be accurate when growth curve parameters and their (co)variance components are estimated jointly. The model used in this study can be applied to the prediction of mature weight in herds where a portion of the animals are culled before they reach the adult age.

  14. [Prediction model of human-caused fire occurrence in the boreal forest of northern China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Fu-tao; Su, Zhang-wen; Wang, Guang-yu; Wang, Qiang; Sun, Long; Yang, Ting-ting

    2015-07-01

    The Chinese boreal forest is an important forest resource in China. However, it has been suffering serious disturbances of forest fires, which were caused equally by natural disasters (e.g., lightning) and human activities. The literature on human-caused fires indicates that climate, topography, vegetation, and human infrastructure are significant factors that impact the occurrence and spread of human-caused fires. But the studies on human-caused fires in the boreal forest of northern China are limited and less comprehensive. This paper applied the spatial analysis tools in ArcGIS 10.0 and Logistic regression model to investigate the driving factors of human-caused fires. Our data included the geographic coordinates of human-caused fires, climate factors during year 1974-2009, topographic information, and forest map. The results indicated that distance to railway (x1) and average relative humidity (x2) significantly impacted the occurrence of human-caused fire in the study area. The logistic model for predicting the fire occurrence probability was formulated as P= 1/[11+e-(3.026-0.00011x1-0.047x2)] with an accuracy rate of 80%. The above model was used to predict the monthly fire occurrence during the fire season of 2015 based on the HADCM2 future weather data. The prediction results showed that the high risk of human-caused fire occurrence concentrated in the months of April, May, June and August, while April and May had higher risk of fire occurrence than other months. According to the spatial distribution of possibility of fire occurrence, the high fire risk zones were mainly in the west and southwest of Tahe, where the major railways were located.

  15. Geodetic Measurements and Numerical Models of Rifting in Northern Iceland for 1993-1999

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ali, T.; Feigl, K.; Masterlark, T.; Carr, B. B.; Sigmundsson, F.; Thurber, C. H.

    2009-12-01

    Rifting occurs as episodes of active deformation in individual rift segments of the Northern Volcanic Zone (NVZ) of Iceland. To measure the deformation, we use interferometric analysis of synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) data acquired between 1993 and 1999. Preliminary results suggest that a complex interplay of multiple inflating and deflating sources at depth is required to account for the observed deformation. In an effort to integrate heterogeneous constraining information (kinematic plate spreading, seismic tomography and anisotropy, and thermal and rheologic structures), we develop finite element models that simulate the underlying sources and processes associated with rifting events to quantitatively understand the magmatic plumbing system beneath Krafla central volcano and rift segment, the site of the most recent rifting episode in the NVZ. Calibration parameters include the positions, geometries, and flux rates for elements of the plumbing system, as well as material properties. The General Inversion for Phase Technique (GIPhT) [Feigl and Thurber, Geophys. J. Int., 2009] is used to model the InSAR phase data directly, without unwrapping parameters. It operates on wrapped phase values ranging from -1/2 to +1/2 cycles. By defining a cost function that quantifies the misfit between observed and modeled values in terms of wrapped phase, GIPhT can estimate parameters in a geophysical model by minimizing the cost function. Since this approach can handle noisy, wrapped phase data, it avoids the pitfalls of phase-unwrapping approaches. Consequently, GIPhT allows the analysis, interpretation and modeling of more interferometric pairs than approaches that require unwrapping. GIPhT also allows statistical testing of hypotheses because the wrapped phase residuals follow a Von Mises distribution. As a result, the model parameters estimated by GIPhT include formal uncertainties. We test the hypothesis that deformation in the rift zone occurred at a constant (secular

  16. Microclimate and Modeled Fire Behavior Differ Between Adjacent Forest Types in Northern Portugal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anita Pinto

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Fire severity varies with forest composition and structure, reflecting micrometeorology and the fuel complex, but their respective influences are difficult to untangle from observation alone. We quantify the differences in fire weather between different forest types and the resulting differences in modeled fire behavior. Collection of in-stand weather data proceeded during two summer periods in three adjacent stands in northern Portugal, respectively Pinus pinaster (PP, Betula alba (BA, and Chamaecyparis lawsoniana (CL. Air temperature, relative humidity and wind speed varied respectively as CL < PP < BA, PP < CL < BA, and CL < BA < PP. Differences between PP and the other types were greatest during the warmest and driest hours of the day in a sequence of 10 days with high fire danger. Estimates of daytime moisture content of fine dead fuels and fire behavior characteristics for this period, respectively, from Behave and BehavePlus, indicate a CL < BA < PP gradient in fire potential. High stand density in CL and BA ensured lower wind speed and higher fuel moisture content than in PP, limiting the likelihood of an extreme fire environment. However, regression tree analysis revealed that the fire behavior distinction between the three forest types was primarily a function of the surface fuel complex, and more so during extreme fire weather conditions.

  17. Estimation model of soil freeze-thaw erosion in Silingco watershed wetland of Northern Tibet.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kong, Bo; Yu, Huan

    2013-01-01

    The freeze-thaw (FT) erosion is a type of soil erosion like water erosion and wind erosion. Limited by many factors, the grading evaluation of soil FT erosion quantities is not well studied. Based on the comprehensive analysis of the evaluation indices of soil FT erosion, we for the first time utilized the sensitivity of microwave remote sensing technology to soil moisture for identification of FT state. We established an estimation model suitable to evaluate the soil FT erosion quantity in Silingco watershed wetland of Northern Tibet using weighted summation method of six impact factors including the annual FT cycle days, average diurnal FT phase-changed water content, average annual precipitation, slope, aspect, and vegetation coverage. Finally, with the support of GIS, we classified soil FT erosion quantity in Silingco watershed wetland. The results showed that soil FT erosion are distributed in broad areas of Silingco watershed wetland. Different soil FT erosions with different intensities have evidently different spatial and geographical distributions.

  18. TEC variability near northern EIA crest and comparison with IRI model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aggarwal, Malini

    2011-10-01

    Monthly median values of hourly total electron content (TEC) is obtained with GPS at a station near northern anomaly crest, Rajkot (geog. 22.29°N, 70.74°E; geomag. 14.21°N, 144.9°E) to study the variability of low latitude ionospheric behavior during low solar activity period (April 2005 to March 2006). The TEC exhibit characteristic features like day-to-day variability, semiannual anomaly and noon bite out. The observed TEC is compared with latest International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) - 2007 model using options of topside electron density, NeQuick, IRI01-corr and IRI-2001 by using both URSI and CCIR coefficients. A good agreement of observed and predicted TEC is found during the daytime with underestimation at other times. The predicted TEC by NeQuick and IRI01-corr is closer to the observed TEC during the daytime whereas during nighttime and morning hours, IRI-2001 shows lesser discrepancy in all seasons by both URSI and CCIR coefficients.

  19. Estimating inbreeding rates in Northern Spotted Owls: insights from pedigrees and spatio-demographic models

    Science.gov (United States)

    The federally-threatened Northern Spotted Owl (Strix occidentalis caurina) has a substantial influence on management of federal lands. Despite decades of investigation, important details about its status and habits remain unknown. In particular, determining the frequency of inbre...

  20. Topobathymetric Model of the Northern Gulf of Mexico, 1888 to 2013

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Accurate, high-resolution elevation information is vital to understanding the highly dynamic Northern Gulf Coast, with Louisiana being the location of North...

  1. Modelling Pseudocalanus elongatus stage-structured population dynamics embedded in a water column ecosystem model for the northern North Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moll, Andreas; Stegert, Christoph

    2007-01-01

    This paper outlines an approach to couple a structured zooplankton population model with state variables for eggs, nauplii, two copepodites stages and adults adapted to Pseudocalanus elongatus into the complex marine ecosystem model ECOHAM2 with 13 state variables resolving the carbon and nitrogen cycle. Different temperature and food scenarios derived from laboratory culture studies were examined to improve the process parameterisation for copepod stage dependent development processes. To study annual cycles under realistic weather and hydrographic conditions, the coupled ecosystem-zooplankton model is applied to a water column in the northern North Sea. The main ecosystem state variables were validated against observed monthly mean values. Then vertical profiles of selected state variables were compared to the physical forcing to study differences between zooplankton as one biomass state variable or partitioned into five population state variables. Simulated generation times are more affected by temperature than food conditions except during the spring phytoplankton bloom. Up to six generations within the annual cycle can be discerned in the simulation.

  2. Hydrological Modeling in Northern Tunisia with Regional Climate Model Outputs: Performance Evaluation and Bias-Correction in Present Climate Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Asma Foughali

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available This work aims to evaluate the performance of a hydrological balance model in a watershed located in northern Tunisia (wadi Sejnane, 378 km2 in present climate conditions using input variables provided by four regional climate models. A modified version (MBBH of the lumped and single layer surface model BBH (Bucket with Bottom Hole model, in which pedo-transfer parameters estimated using watershed physiographic characteristics are introduced is adopted to simulate the water balance components. Only two parameters representing respectively the water retention capacity of the soil and the vegetation resistance to evapotranspiration are calibrated using rainfall-runoff data. The evaluation criterions for the MBBH model calibration are: relative bias, mean square error and the ratio of mean actual evapotranspiration to mean potential evapotranspiration. Daily air temperature, rainfall and runoff observations are available from 1960 to 1984. The period 1960–1971 is selected for calibration while the period 1972–1984 is chosen for validation. Air temperature and precipitation series are provided by four regional climate models (DMI, ARP, SMH and ICT from the European program ENSEMBLES, forced by two global climate models (GCM: ECHAM and ARPEGE. The regional climate model outputs (precipitation and air temperature are compared to the observations in terms of statistical distribution. The analysis was performed at the seasonal scale for precipitation. We found out that RCM precipitation must be corrected before being introduced as MBBH inputs. Thus, a non-parametric quantile-quantile bias correction method together with a dry day correction is employed. Finally, simulated runoff generated using corrected precipitation from the regional climate model SMH is found the most acceptable by comparison with runoff simulated using observed precipitation data, to reproduce the temporal variability of mean monthly runoff. The SMH model is the most accurate to

  3. Modelling wetland-groundwater interactions in the boreal Kälväsvaara esker, Northern Finland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaros, Anna; Rossi, Pekka; Ronkanen, Anna-Kaisa; Kløve, Bjørn

    2016-04-01

    Many types of boreal peatland ecosystems such as alkaline fens, aapa mires and Fennoscandia spring fens rely on the presence of groundwater. In these ecosystems groundwater creates unique conditions for flora and fauna by providing water, nutrients and constant water temperature enriching local biodiversity. The groundwater-peatland interactions and their dynamics are not, however, in many cases fully understood and their measurement and quantification is difficult due to highly heterogeneous structure of peatlands and large spatial extend of these ecosystems. Understanding of these interactions and their changes due to anthropogenic impact on groundwater resources would benefit the protection of the groundwater dependent peatlands. The groundwater-peatland interactions were investigated using the fully-integrated physically-based groundwater-surface water code HydroGeoSphere in a case study of the Kälväsvaara esker aquifer, Northern Finland. The Kälväsvaara is a geologically complex esker and it is surrounded by vast aapa mire system including alkaline and springs fens. In addition, numerous small springs occur in the discharge zone of the esker. In order to quantify groundwater-peatland interactions a simple steady-state model was built and results were evaluated using expected trends and field measurements. The employed model reproduced relatively well spatially distributed hydrological variables such as soil water content, water depths and groundwater-surface water exchange fluxes within the wetland and esker areas. The wetlands emerged in simulations as a result of geological and topographical conditions. They could be identified by high saturation levels at ground surface and by presence of shallow ponded water over some areas. The model outputs exhibited also strong surface water-groundwater interactions in some parts of the aapa system. These areas were noted to be regions of substantial diffusive groundwater discharge by the earlier studies. In

  4. Composition of uppermost mantle beneath the Northern Fennoscandia - numerical modeling and petrological interpretation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Virshylo, Ivan; Kozlovskaya, Elena; Prodaivoda, George; Silvennoinen, Hanna

    2013-04-01

    Studying of the uppermost mantle beneath the northern Fennoscandia is based on the data of the POLENET/LAPNET passive seismic array. Firstly, arrivals of P-waves of teleseismic events were inverted into P-wave velocity model using non-linear tomography (Silvennoinen et al., in preparation). The second stage was numerical petrological interpretation of referred above velocity model. This study presents estimation of mineralogical composition of the uppermost mantle as a result of numerical modeling. There are many studies concerning calculation of seismic velocities for polymineral media under high pressure and temperature conditions (Afonso, Fernàndez, Ranalli, Griffin, & Connolly, 2008; Fullea et al., 2009; Hacker, 2004; Xu, Lithgow-Bertelloni, Stixrude, & Ritsema, 2008). The elastic properties under high pressure and temperature (PT) conditions were modelled using the expanded Hook's law - Duhamel-Neumann equation, which allows computation of thermoelastic strains. Furthermore, we used a matrix model with multi-component inclusions that has no any restrictions on shape, orientation or concentration of inclusions. Stochastic method of conditional moment with computation scheme of Mori-Tanaka (Prodaivoda, Khoroshun, Nazarenko, & Vyzhva, 2000) is applied instead of traditional Voigt-Reuss-Hill and Hashin-Shtrikman equations. We developed software for both forward and inverse problem calculation. Inverse algorithm uses methods of global non-linear optimization. We prefer a "model-based" approach for ill-posed problem, which means that the problem is solved using geological and geophysical constraints for each parameter of a priori and final models. Additionally, we are checking at least several different hypothesis explaining how it is possible to get the solution with good fit to the observed data. If the a priori model is close to the real medium, the nearest solution would be found by the inversion. Otherwise, the global optimization is searching inside the

  5. Overview of past, ongoing and future efforts of the integrated modeling of global change for Northern Eurasia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monier, Erwan; Kicklighter, David; Sokolov, Andrei; Zhuang, Qianlai; Melillo, Jerry; Reilly, John

    2016-04-01

    Northern Eurasia is both a major player in the global carbon budget (it includes roughly 70% of the Earth's boreal forest and more than two-thirds of the Earth's permafrost) and a region that has experienced dramatic climate change (increase in temperature, growing season length, floods and droughts) over the past century. Northern Eurasia has also undergone significant land-use change, both driven by human activity (including deforestation, expansion of agricultural lands and urbanization) and natural disturbances (such as wildfires and insect outbreaks). These large environmental and socioeconomic impacts have major implications for the carbon cycle in the region. Northern Eurasia is made up of a diverse set of ecosystems that range from tundra to forests, with significant areas of croplands and pastures as well as deserts, with major urban areas. As such, it represents a complex system with substantial challenges for the modeling community. In this presentation, we provide an overview of past, ongoing and possible future efforts of the integrated modeling of global change for Northern Eurasia. We review the variety of existing modeling approaches to investigate specific components of Earth system dynamics in the region. While there are a limited number of studies that try to integrate various aspects of the Earth system (through scale, teleconnections or processes), we point out that there are few systematic analyses of the various feedbacks within the Earth system (between components, regions or scale). As a result, there is a lack of knowledge of the relative importance of such feedbacks, and it is unclear how policy relevant current studies are that fail to account for these feedbacks. We review the role of Earth system models, and their advantages/limitations compared to detailed single component models. We further introduce the human activity system (global trade, economic models, demographic model and so on), the need for coupled human/earth system models

  6. Climate change between the mid and late Holocene in northern high latitudes – Part 2: Model-data comparisons

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Holmgren

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available The climate response over northern high latitudes to the mid-Holocene orbital forcing has been investigated in three types of PMIP (Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project simulations with different complexity of the modelled climate system. By first undertaking model-data comparison, an objective selection method has been applied to evaluate the capability of the climate models to reproduce the spatial response pattern seen in proxy data. The possible feedback mechanisms behind the climate response have been explored based on the selected model simulations. Subsequent model-model comparisons indicate the importance of including the different physical feedbacks in the climate models. The comparisons between the proxy-based reconstructions and the best fit selected simulations show that over the northern high latitudes, summer temperature change follows closely the insolation change and shows a common feature with strong warming over land and relatively weak warming over ocean at 6 ka compared to 0 ka. Furthermore, the sea-ice-albedo positive feedback enhances this response. The reconstructions of temperature show a stronger response to enhanced insolation in the annual mean temperature than winter and summer temperature. This is verified in the model simulations and the behaviour is attributed to the larger contribution from the large response in autumn. Despite a smaller insolation during winter at 6 ka, a pronounced warming centre is found over Barents Sea in winter in the simulations, which is also supported by the nearby northern Eurasian continental and Fennoscandian reconstructions. This indicates that in the Arctic region, the response of the ocean and the sea ice to the enhanced summer insolation is more important for the winter temperature than the synchronous decrease of the insolation.

  7. Accounting for Taste Heterogeneity in Purchase Channel Intention Modeling: An Example from Northern California for Book Purchases

    OpenAIRE

    Tang, Wei; Mokhtarian, Patricia L

    2009-01-01

    This study uses latent class modeling (LCM) to explore the effects of channel-specific perceptions, along with other variables, on purchase channel intention. Using data on book purchases collected from an Internet-based survey of two university towns in Northern California, we develop a latent class model with two segments (final N=373). Age turns out to be the only observed determinant of class membership, and in the intention model, the mostly-younger segment is more cost-sensitive and the...

  8. A stochastic model with a low-frequency amplification feedback for the stratospheric northern annular mode

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Yueyue; Cai, Ming; Ren, Rongcai

    2017-08-01

    We consider three indices to measure the polar stratospheric mass and stratospheric meridional mass circulation variability: anomalies of (1) total mass in the polar stratospheric cap (60-90°N, above the isentropic surface 400 K, PSM), (2) total adiabatic mass transport across 60°N into the polar stratosphere cap (AMT), (3) and total diabetic mass transport across 400 K from the polar stratosphere into the troposphere below (DMT). It is confirmed that the negative stratospheric Northern Annular Mode (NAM) and PSM indices have a nearly indistinguishable temporal evolution and a similar red-noise-like spectrum with a de-correlation timescale of 4 weeks. This enables us to examine the low-frequency nature of the NAM in the framework of mass circulation, namely, d/{dt}{PSM}={AMT} - {DMT} . The DMT index tends to be positively correlated with the PSM with a red-noise-like spectrum, representing slow radiative cooling processes giving rise to a de-correlation timescale of 3-4 weeks. The AMT is nearly perfectly correlated with the day-to-day tendency of PSM, reflecting a robust quasi 90° out-of-phase relation between the AMT and PSM at all frequency bands. Variations of vertically westward tilting of planetary waves contribute mainly to the high-frequency portion of AMT. It is the wave amplitude's slow vacillation that plays the leading role in the quasi 90° out-of-phase relation between the AMT and PSM. Based on this, we put forward a linear stochastic model with a low-frequency amplification feedback from low-frequency amplitude vacillations of planetary waves to explain the amplified low-frequency response of PSM/NAM to a stochastic forcing from the westward tilting variability.

  9. Measurement and modeling of wind waves at the northern coast of Santa Catarina, Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Henrique G. M. Alves

    2001-01-01

    Full Text Available Directional measurements of wind-wave spectra made during the year of 1996 are used in a preliminary investigation of the wind-wave climate and its transformation at the São Francisco do Sul island, northern coast of the Santa Catarina state. Four major sea states and associated meteorological conditions are identified through analyses of joint distributions of observed wave parameters. Transformations of these main sea-state patterns due to refraction and shoaling are investigated through a numerical modeling approach that allows the reconstruction of the wave field within extensive coastal areas, using single point measurements of the wave spectrum in shallow waters. Cross-validation of measured and reconstructed spectra at the study site yield consistent results, suggesting that the proposed methodology works well for the São Francisco do Sul coast.Medições do espectro direcional de ondas geradas pelo vento realizadas em 1996 são utilizadas em uma investigação preliminar do clima de ondas no litoral norte de Santa Catarina, Brasil. Quatro estados de mar predominantes são identificados, em conjunto com os padrões meteorológicos associados a sua ocorrência, através de análises estatísticas. As transformações desses quatro estados de mar devido a refraçâo e empinamento são investigadas através de modelos numéricos, que permitem obter estimativas do campo de ondas em áreas extensas a partir de medições pontuais feitas em águas rasas. Comparações entre espectros medidos e modelados produzem resultados consistentes, sugerindo que a metodologia proposta é válida para a costa de São Francisco do Sul.

  10. Crustal Structure of the Andean Foreland in Northern Argentina: Results From Data-Integrative Three-Dimensional Density Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meeßen, C.; Sippel, J.; Scheck-Wenderoth, M.; Heine, C.; Strecker, M. R.

    2018-02-01

    Previous thermomechanical modeling studies indicated that variations in the temperature and strength of the crystalline crust might be responsible for the juxtaposition of domains with thin-skinned and thick-skinned crustal deformation along strike the foreland of the central Andes. However, there is no evidence supporting this hypothesis from data-integrative models. We aim to derive the density structure of the lithosphere by means of integrated 3-D density modeling, in order to provide a new basis for discussions of compositional variations within the crust and for future thermal and rheological modeling studies. Therefore, we utilize available geological and geophysical data to obtain a structural and density model of the uppermost 200 km of the Earth. The derived model is consistent with the observed Bouguer gravity field. Our results indicate that the crystalline crust in northern Argentina can be represented by a lighter upper crust (2,800 kg/m3) and a denser lower crust (3,100 kg/m3). We find new evidence for high bulk crustal densities >3,000 kg/m3 in the northern Pampia terrane. These could originate from subducted Puncoviscana wackes or pelites that ponded to the base of the crystalline crust in the late Proterozoic or indicate increasing bulk content of mafic material. The precise composition of the northern foreland crust, whether mafic or felsic, has significant implications for further thermomechanical models and the rheological behavior of the lithosphere. A detailed sensitivity analysis of the input parameters indicates that the model results are robust with respect to the given uncertainties of the input data.

  11. Uncertainties in modelling CH4 emissions from northern wetlands in glacial climates: effect of hydrological model and CH4 model structure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. van Huissteden

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available Methane (CH4 fluxes from northern wetlands may have influenced atmospheric CH4 concentrations at climate warming phases during the last 800 000 years and during the present global warming. Including these CH4 fluxes in earth system models is essential to understand feedbacks between climate and atmospheric composition. Attempts to model CH4 fluxes from wetlands have previously been undertaken using various approaches. Here, we test a process-based wetland CH4 flux model (PEATLAND-VU which includes details of soil-atmosphere CH4 transport. The model has been used to simulate CH4 emissions from continental Europe in previous glacial climates and the current climate. This paper presents results regarding the sensitivity of modeling glacial terrestrial CH4 fluxes to (a basic tuning parameters of the model, (b different approaches in modeling of the water table, and (c model structure. In order to test the model structure, PEATLAND-VU was compared to a simpler modeling approach based on wetland primary production estimated from a vegetation model (BIOME 3.5. The tuning parameters are the CH4 production rate from labile organic carbon and its temperature sensitivity. The modelled fluxes prove comparatively insensitive to hydrology representation, while sensitive to microbial parameters and model structure. Glacial climate emissions are also highly sensitive to assumptions about the extent of ice cover and exposed seafloor. Wetland expansion over low relief exposed seafloor areas have compensated for a decrease of wetland area due to continental ice cover.

  12. WMO SDS-WAS NAMEE Regional Center: Towards continuous evaluation of dust models in Northern Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Basart, Sara; García-Castillo, Gerardo; Cuevas, Emilio; Terradellas, Enric

    2016-04-01

    One of the most important activities of the Regional Center for Northern Africa, Middle East and Europe of the World Meteorological Organization's Sand and Dust Storm Warning Advisory and Assessment System (WMO SDS-WAS, http://sds-was.aemet.es) is the dust model intercomparison and forecast evaluation, which is deemed an indispensable service to the users and an invaluable tool to assess model skills. Currently, the Regional Center collects daily dust forecasts from models run by nine partners (BSC, ECMWF, NASA, NCEP, SEEVCCC, EMA, CNR-ISAC, NOA and UK Met Office). A multi-model ensemble has also been set up in an effort to provide added-value products to the users. The first problem to address the dust model evaluation is the scarcity of suitable routine observations near the Sahara, the world's largest source of mineral dust. The present contribution presents preliminary results of dust model evaluation using new observational datasets. The current routine evaluation of dust predictions is focused on total-column dust optical depth (DOD) and uses remote-sensing retrievals from sun-photometric (AERONET) and satellite (MODIS) measurements. However, most users of dust forecasts are interested in the concentration near the surface (in the air we breathe) rather than in the total column content. Therefore, evaluation of the predicted surface concentration is also necessary. In this context, the initiative of the African Monsoon Interdisciplinary Analysis (AMMA) International Program to establish permanent measuring stations in the Sahel is extremely important. Tapered Element Oscillating Microbalance (TEOM) monitors continuously record PM10 in M'Bour (Senegal); Cinzana (Mali) and Banizoumbou (Niger). This surface model evaluation is complemented with the PM10 observation from the Air Quality Control and Monitoring Network (AQCMN) of the Canary Islands (Spain). The region, located in the sub-tropical Eastern Atlantic (roughly 100 km west of the Moroccan coast), is

  13. Modeling nonbreeding distributions of shorebirds and waterfowl in response to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reese, Gordon; Skagen, Susan K.

    2017-01-01

    To identify areas on the landscape that may contribute to a robust network of conservation areas, we modeled the probabilities of occurrence of several en route migratory shorebirds and wintering waterfowl in the southern Great Plains of North America, including responses to changing climate. We predominantly used data from the eBird citizen-science project to model probabilities of occurrence relative to land-use patterns, spatial distribution of wetlands, and climate. We projected models to potential future climate conditions using five representative general circulation models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5). We used Random Forests to model probabilities of occurrence and compared the time periods 1981–2010 (hindcast) and 2041–2070 (forecast) in “model space.” Projected changes in shorebird probabilities of occurrence varied with species-specific general distribution pattern, migration distance, and spatial extent. Species using the western and northern portion of the study area exhibited the greatest likelihoods of decline, whereas species with more easterly occurrences, mostly long-distance migrants, had the greatest projected increases in probability of occurrence. At an ecoregional extent, differences in probabilities of shorebird occurrence ranged from −0.015 to 0.045 when averaged across climate models, with the largest increases occurring early in migration. Spatial shifts are predicted for several shorebird species. Probabilities of occurrence of wintering Mallards and Northern Pintail are predicted to increase by 0.046 and 0.061, respectively, with northward shifts projected for both species. When incorporated into partner land management decision tools, results at ecoregional extents can be used to identify wetland complexes with the greatest potential to support birds in the nonbreeding season under a wide range of future climate scenarios.

  14. A sensitivity study on modeling black carbon in snow and its radiative forcing over the Arctic and Northern China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Qian, Yun; Wang, Hailong; Rasch, Philip J; Zhang, Rudong; Flanner, Mark G

    2014-01-01

    Black carbon in snow (BCS) simulated in the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM5) is evaluated against measurements over Northern China and the Arctic, and its sensitivity to atmospheric deposition and two parameters that affect post-depositional enrichment is explored. Improvements in atmospheric BC transport and deposition significantly reduce the biases (by a factor of two) in the estimation of BCS concentration over both Northern China and the Arctic. Further sensitivity simulations using the improved CAM5 indicate that the melt-water scavenging efficiency (MSE) parameter plays an important role in regulating BC concentrations in the Arctic through the post-depositional enrichment, which not only drastically changes the amplitude but also shifts the seasonal cycle of the BCS concentration and its radiative forcing in the Arctic. The impact of the snow aging scaling factor (SAF) on BCS shows more complex latitudinal and seasonal dependence, and overall impact of SAF is much smaller than that of MSE. The improvements of BC transport and deposition in CAM5 have a stronger influence on BCS than perturbations of the two snow model parameters in Northern China. (letters)

  15. Simulation by a mathematical model of the groundwater flow between the Alps and the Black Forest; Part A: regional model; Part B: local model (Northern Switzerland)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kimmeier, F.; Perrochet, P.; Kiraly, L.

    1985-01-01

    The purpose of this report is to present the development of two hydrogeologic models of the groundwater flow regime in the crystalline of northern Switzerland. These models are constructed at two scales. The regional model (23000 km 2 ) accounts for all recharge to and discharge from the crystalline within the model boundaries. The local model (900 km 2 ) allows for greater structural, stratigraphic and topographic complexity in a more restricted area including some of the areas of interest to CEDRA. The regional model provides the hydrologic boundary conditions for the local model. All steps followed in constructing and testing the models are presented. This includes defining the areal and vertical geometry of the principal aquifers and aquitards. In addition, the hydrogeologic properties of these layers are defined; including their permeability, homogeneity, anisotropy and continuity. Discontinuities (e.g. faults) are modeled as discrete features. Hydrologic boundary conditions are specified based on observed or inferred potentiometric or flow (infiltration/exfiltration) data. The developed conceptual models are tested with program FEM 301. The results of this application consist of heads at every noidal point and recharge/discharge rates at every constant head node. These results are utilized to define the general groundwater flow regimes in the crystalline. In addition, the results are compared to observed heads and discharges in an attempt to validate the conceptual models. Representative hydraulic gradients at potential areas of interest to CEDRA are presented. Sensitivity analyses have been conducted to define the groundwater flow systems response to uncertain parameters and boundary conditions

  16. Developing a Coffee Yield Prediction and Integrated Soil Fertility Management Recommendation Model for Northern Tanzania

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Maro, G.P.; Mrema, J.P.; Msanya, B.M.; Janssen, B.H.; Teri, J.M.

    2014-01-01

    The aim of this study was to develop a simple and quantitative system for coffee yield estimation and nutrient input advice, so as to address the problem of declining annual coffee production in Tanzania (particularly in its Northern coffee zone), which is related to declining soil fertility. The

  17. Sampling forest regeneration across northern U.S. forests: filling a void in regeneration model input

    Science.gov (United States)

    William H. McWilliams; Charles D. Canham; Randall S. Morin; Katherine Johnson; Paul Roth; James A. Westfall

    2012-01-01

    The Forest Inventory and Analysis Program of the Northern Research Station (NRS-FIA) has implemented new Advance Tree Seedling Regeneration (ATSR) protocols that include measurements of seedlings down to 2 inches in height. The addition of ATSR protocols is part of an evaluation of NRS-FIA Phase 3 indicator variables to increase sampling intensity from 1/96,000 acres...

  18. Water balance model for a no release mining operation in the Northern Territory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burgess, P.J.

    1983-01-01

    The uranium mining region of the Northern Territory of Australia is characterised by extremes in rainfall. This must be considered in planning mining operations in the area. Plans must include provision of water during the dry season, control of water during the wet season, provision of access throughout all seasons and management of water to minimise environmental pollution

  19. How to model the stability of terraced slopes? The case study of Tresenda (northern Italy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Camera, Corrado; Apuani, Tiziana; Masetti, Marco

    2015-04-01

    Terraces are very common morphological features all around the Mediterranean Basin. They have been built to adapt the natural morphology of the territory to the development of anthropogenic activities, particularly agriculture. However, the increasing land abandonment during the last century is leading to soil degradation and stability issues, mainly due to lack of maintenance of these peculiar environments. The objective of this study was to develop a coupled hydrologic-stability model to identify possible triggering areas of superficial landslides during intense rainfall events. The model was tested on a slope uphill of the village of Tresenda, in Northern Italy, which experienced several superficial landslides in the last 35 years. Distributed stability analyses are usually carried out using an infinite slope approach, but in the case of terraces some basic assumptions of this method fail: the parallelism between topographical surface and potential sliding surface and the high ratio between slope length and failure surface depth are the most important examples. In addition, the interest is more on the stability of the terrace system (dry stone retaining wall and backfill soil) and not on soil alone. For these reasons, a stability analysis based on the global method of equilibrium is applied and soft coupled to a well know hydrological model (STARWARS). Sections of terrace, one cell wide, are recognized from the base of a wall to the top of the closest downstream one, and each cell (1 x 1 m2) is considered as a slice. The method of Sarma for circular and non-circular failure is applied. The very fine horizontal resolution (1 m) is crucial to take into consideration the hydrogeological and mechanical properties of dry stone walls (0.6-1.0 m wide). A sensitivity analysis was conducted for saturated water content, initial volumetric water content, the cohesion and friction angle of soil and walls and soil depth. The results of the sensitivity analysis showed that

  20. THE MODEL OF MOTOR ACTIVITY OPTIMIZATION OF YOUNGER SCHOOL AGE CHILDREN LIVING IN THE CONDITIONS OF THE NORTHERN CITY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhanna Ildarovna Busheva

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Extreme conditions of the North, computerization, Internet and a gadget dependence, high physical and intellectual loads of children activities living in the north negatively affect younger generation health state. It is difficult to overestimate a role of motor activity in expansion of functionality of the developing organism as the lack of locomotion can lead to pathological shifts in an organism. Based on the study of the concept of a ‘motor activity’ and features North of the city the article suggests a model of motor activity optimization of younger school age children living in the conditions of the northern city. It consisted of 6 units related to goal-setting, diagnostic-analytical, concept, process-activity, reflexive-evaluative and effective. The research was conducted on the basis of Surgut city schools and the Surgut region of Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Region-Yugra. During the research we revealed the most priority organization forms of motor activity of younger school age children living in conditions of the northern city. The model of motor activity optimization of younger school age children allows to create necessary optimum volume and to control of motor activity of children of younger school age. Purpose. The purpose of our research was to create model of motor activity optimization of younger school age children living in the conditions of the northern city. Methodology. Analysis and synthesis of the materials as well as the method of simulation are used as the main instruments. Results. A model of motor activity optimization of younger school age children has been elaborated in the course of study and its characteristics have been specified. Practical implications. The results can be of use for teachers at professional educational institutions.

  1. Molecular Indicators of Chronic Stress in a Model Pinniped - The Northern Elephant Seal

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-09-30

    Pinniped - The Northern Elephant Seal Cory Champagne , Jane Kyudyakov, & Dorian Houser National Marine Mammal Foundation 2240 Shelter Island Dr, Suite...in studies of stress and its impacts ( Champagne et al, 2012). Measurements will be conducted in juvenile elephant seals that reliably haul out each...their large adipose stores) and a reduced amino acid release (potentially resulting from a protein sparing adaptation during fasting; Champagne et

  2. Spring flood pH decline in northern Sweden: Towards an operational model separating natural acidity from anthropogenic acidification

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Laudon, H.

    1999-10-01

    The spring flood is a defining feature of the ecosystem in northern Sweden. In this region, spring flood is an occasion for dramatic hydrochemical changes that profoundly effect the biodiversity of the aquatic ecosystem. Spring flood is also the period most susceptible to anthropogenic acidification. A belief in the anthropogenic component to pH decline during spring flood has been an important factor in spending over half a billion crowns to lime surface waters in Northern Sweden during the last decade. The natural component of episodic pH decline during spring flood, however, has received less attention. The main objective of this work is to present an operational model for separating and quantifying the anthropogenic and natural contributions of episodic acidification during high flow events in Northern Sweden. The key assumptions in this model are that baseflow ANC has not been affected by anthropogenic acidification, that DOC has not changed due to modern land-use practice and that natural dilution during hydrological episodes can be quantified. The limited data requirements of 10-15 stream water samples before and during spring flood make the model suitable for widespread use in environmental monitoring programs. This makes it possible to distinguish trends of human impact as well as natural pH decline in space and time. Modeling results from northern Sweden demonstrate that the natural driving mechanisms of dilution and organic acidity were the dominant factors in the episodic acidification of spring flood in the region. The anthropogenic contribution to spring pH decline was similar in size to the natural contribution in only two of the more than 30 events where this model was applied. Natural factors alone were found to cause pH values below 4.5 in some streams. Anthropogenic sources of acidity can be superimposed on this natural dynamics. In the sites studied, the magnitude of the anthropogenic ANC decline was correlated to the winter deposition of

  3. Derivation of a northern-hemispheric biomass map for use in global carbon cycle models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thurner, Martin; Beer, Christian; Santoro, Maurizio; Carvalhais, Nuno; Wutzler, Thomas; Schepaschenko, Dmitry; Shvidenko, Anatoly; Kompter, Elisabeth; Levick, Shaun; Schmullius, Christiane

    2013-04-01

    (C)/ha(Forest)) and broadleaf/mixed forests (58.0 ± 22.1 Mg(C)/ha(Forest)), whereas boreal forests have a carbon density of only 40.0 ± 15.4 Mg(C)/ha(Forest). While European forest carbon stocks are relatively small, the carbon density is higher compared to the other continents. The derived biomass map substantially improves the knowledge on the current carbon stocks of the northern-hemispheric boreal and temperate forests, serving as a new benchmark for spatially explicit and consistent biomass mapping with moderate spatial resolution. This product can be of great value for global carbon cycle models as well as national carbon monitoring systems. Further investigations concentrate on improving biomass parameterizations and representations in such kind of models. The presented map will help to improve the simulation of biomass spatial patterns and variability and enables identifying the dominant influential factors like climatic conditions and disturbances.

  4. Modelling study of boundary-layer ozone over northern China - Part II: Responses to emission reductions during the Beijing Olympics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Guiqian; Zhu, Xiaowan; Xin, Jinyuan; Hu, Bo; Song, Tao; Sun, Yang; Wang, Lili; Wu, Fangkun; Sun, Jie; Cheng, Mengtian; Chao, Na; Li, Xin; Wang, Yuesi

    2017-09-01

    The implementation of emission reduction measures during the Olympics provided a valuable opportunity to study regional photochemical pollution over northern China. In this study, the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University/National Centre for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model and Community Multiscale Air Quality model system was applied to conduct two sets of modelling analyses of the period from July 20 to September 20, 2008, to illustrate the influences of emission reduction measures on regional photochemical pollution over northern China during the Beijing Olympics. The results indicated that the implementation of emission control measures decreased the concentrations of ozone (O3) precursors, namely nitrogen oxide (NOx) and volatile organic compounds (VOCs), throughout the boundary layer. The concentrations of these compounds were reduced by 45% in the central urban area of Beijing at the ground level. Although the average O3 concentration in the central urban area increased by more than 8 ppbv, the total oxidant concentration decreased significantly by more than 5 ppbv. Greater O3 concentrations mainly occurred during periods with weak photochemical reactions. During periods of strong photochemical production, the O3 concentration decreased significantly due to a weakening vertical circulation between the lower and upper boundary layer. Consequently, the number of days when the O3 concentration exceeded 100 ppbv decreased by 25% in Beijing. The emission control measures altered the sensitivity of the regional O3 production. The coordinated control region of NOx and VOCs expanded, and the control region of VOCs decreased in size. The reduction of non-point-source emissions, such as fugitive VOCs and vehicles, was more useful for controlling regional photochemical pollution over northern China.

  5. Petroleum potential of the northern Sinu-San Jacinto Basin, Colombia: an integrated petroleum system and basin modeling approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nino, Christian H.; Goncalves, Felix T.T.; Bedregal, Ricardo P. [Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ), RJ (Brazil). Coordenacao dos Programas de Pos-graduacao de Engenharia (COPPE). Lab. de Modelagem de Bacias (LAB2M); Azevedo, Debora A. [Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ), RJ (Brazil). Inst. de Quimica; Landau, Luis [Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ), RJ (Brazil). Coordenacao dos Programas de Pos-graduacao de Engenharia (COPPE). Lab. de Metodos Computacionais em Engenharia (LAMCE)

    2004-07-01

    The northern Sinu-San Jacinto basin, located in the northwestern corner of South America (Colombia), belongs to the accretionary prism that resulted from the collision and subduction of the Caribbean plate under the South America plate. Despite all the previous exploratory efforts, solely a few small sub-commercial oil and gas accumulation have been found up to now. The geological and geochemical information acquired by different companies during the lasts decades was integrated with new geochemical analysis and basin modeling to characterize the petroleum systems, to reconstruct the hydrocarbon charge history in the study area and to better assess the exploratory risk. (author)

  6. Terrestrial ecosystem model performance in simulating productivity and its vulnerability to climate change in the northern permafrost region

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Xia, Jianyang; McGuire, A. David; Lawrence, David

    2017-01-01

    productivity (NPP) and responses to historical climate change in permafrost regions in the Northern Hemisphere. In comparison with the satellite estimate from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS; 246 ± 6 g C m−2 yr−1), most models produced higher NPP (309 ± 12 g C m−2 yr−1) over...... and the maximum rate of carboxylation by the enzyme Rubisco at 25°C (Vcmax_25), respectively. The models also varied in their sensitivities of NPP, GPP, and CUE to historical changes in climate and atmospheric CO2 concentration. These results indicate that model predictive ability of the C cycle in permafrost...... regions can be improved by better representation of the processes controlling CUE and GPPmax as well as their sensitivity to climate change....

  7. Conceptualisation of Snowpack Isotope Dynamics in Spatially Distributed Tracer-Aided Runoff Models in Snow Influenced Northern Cathments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ala-aho, P. O. A.; Tetzlaff, D.; Laudon, H.; McNamara, J. P.; Soulsby, C.

    2016-12-01

    We use the Spatially distributed Tracer-Aided Rainfall-Runoff (STARR) modelling framework to explore non-stationary flow and isotope response in three northern headwater catchments. The model simulates dynamic, spatially variable tracer concentration in different water stores and fluxes within a catchment, which can constrain internal catchment mixing processes, flow paths and associated water ages. To date, a major limitation in using such models in snow-dominated catchments has been the difficulties in paramaterising the isotopic transformations in snowpack accumulation and melt. We use high quality long term datasets for hydrometrics and stable water isotopes collected in three northern study catchments for model calibration and testing. The three catchments exhibit different hydroclimatic conditions, soil and vegetation types, and topographic relief, which brings about variable degree of snow dominance across the catchments. To account for the snow influence we develop novel formulations to estimate the isotope evolution in the snowpack and melt. Algorithms for the isotopic evolution parameterize an isotopic offset between snow evaporation and melt fluxes and the remaining snow storage. The model for each catchment is calibrated to match both streamflow and tracer concentration at the stream outlet to ensure internal consistency of the system behaviour. The model is able to reproduce the streamflow along with the spatio-temporal differences in tracer concentrations across the three studies catchments reasonably well. Incorporating the spatially distributed snowmelt processes and associated isotope transformations proved essential in capturing the stream tracer reponse for strongly snow-influenced cathments. This provides a transferrable tool which can be used to understand spatio-temporal variability of mixing and water ages for different storages and flow paths in other snow influenced, environments.

  8. Dispersion of sulphur in the northern hemisphere. A study with a 3-dimensional time-resolved model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tarrason, L

    1996-12-31

    This thesis on atmospheric dispersion of sulphur presents a calculation of intercontinental transport of oxidized sulphur and allocates different contributions to sulphur background levels over Europe. It is found that a significant fraction of anthropogenic sulphur (AS) is transported out of continental boundaries thus affecting the background levels over major parts of the northern hemisphere. Over Europe, the contribution of AS from North America is similar in amount to that of Asian AS and natural sources from the North Atlantic Ocean. Although the yearly contribution of intercontinental transport to deposition of sulphur over Europe is quite small, it can be much more important over certain areas and seasons and is comparable to the contributions from individual European countries. The calculations are based on a three-dimensional Eulerian time-resolved model that describes sulphur dispersion in the atmosphere in connection with large-scale synoptic flows and agree well with observations. The thesis emphasizes the role of synoptic scale atmospheric motions in determining intercontinental transport of sulphur. It indicates the need to resolve individual cyclones and anticyclones in order to describe the dispersion and distribution of atmospheric sulphur in the northern hemisphere and stresses the value of comparing model calculations with observations, both in atmospheric chemistry studies and in climate applications. 260 refs., 50 figs., 17 tabs.

  9. Dispersion of sulphur in the northern hemisphere. A study with a 3-dimensional time-resolved model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tarrason, L.

    1995-12-31

    This thesis on atmospheric dispersion of sulphur presents a calculation of intercontinental transport of oxidized sulphur and allocates different contributions to sulphur background levels over Europe. It is found that a significant fraction of anthropogenic sulphur (AS) is transported out of continental boundaries thus affecting the background levels over major parts of the northern hemisphere. Over Europe, the contribution of AS from North America is similar in amount to that of Asian AS and natural sources from the North Atlantic Ocean. Although the yearly contribution of intercontinental transport to deposition of sulphur over Europe is quite small, it can be much more important over certain areas and seasons and is comparable to the contributions from individual European countries. The calculations are based on a three-dimensional Eulerian time-resolved model that describes sulphur dispersion in the atmosphere in connection with large-scale synoptic flows and agree well with observations. The thesis emphasizes the role of synoptic scale atmospheric motions in determining intercontinental transport of sulphur. It indicates the need to resolve individual cyclones and anticyclones in order to describe the dispersion and distribution of atmospheric sulphur in the northern hemisphere and stresses the value of comparing model calculations with observations, both in atmospheric chemistry studies and in climate applications. 260 refs., 50 figs., 17 tabs.

  10. Storm-driven delivery of sediment to the continental slope: Numerical modeling for the northern Gulf of Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harris, C. K.; Kniskern, T. A.; Arango, H.

    2016-02-01

    The supply of sediment from the continental shelf to deeper waters is of critical importance for building continental margin repositories of sediment, and may also factor into episodic events on the continental slope such as turbidity currents and slope failures. While numerical sediment transport models have been developed for coastal and continental shelf areas, they have not often been used to infer sediment delivery to deeper waters. A three-dimensional coupled hydrodynamic - suspended sediment transport model for the northern Gulf of Mexico has been developed and run to evaluate the types of conditions that are associated with delivery of suspended sediment to the continental slope. Accounting for sediment delivery by riverine plumes and for sediment resuspension by energetic waves and currents, the sediment transport calculations were implemented within the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS). The model domain represents the northern Gulf of Mexico shelf and slope including the Mississippi birdfoot delta and the Mississippi and DeSoto Canyons. To investigate the role of storms in driving down-slope sediment fluxes, model runs that encompassed fall, 2007 through late summer, 2008 the summer and fall of 2008 were analyzed. This time period included several winter storms, and the passage of two hurricanes (Ike and Gustav) over the study area. Preliminary results indicated that sediment delivery to the continental slope was triggered by the passage of these storm events, and focused at certain locations, such as submarine canyons. Additionally, a climatological analysis indicates that storm track influences both the wind-driven currents and wave energy on the shelf, and as such plays an important role in determining which storms trigger delivery of suspended continental shelf sediment to the adjacent slope.

  11. Modelling Ecosystem Dynamics of the Oxygen Minimum Zones in the Angola Gyre and the Northern Benguela Upwelling System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmidt, M.; Eggert, A.

    2016-02-01

    The Angola Gyre and the Northern Benguela Upwelling System are two major oxygen minimum zones (OMZ) of different kind connected by the system of African Eastern Boundary Currents. We discuss results from a 3-dimensional coupled biogeochemical model covering both oxygen-deficient systems. The biogeochemical model component comprises trophic levels up to zooplankton. Physiological properties of organisms are parameterized from field data gained mainly in the course of the project "Geochemistry and Ecology of the Namibian Upwelling System" (GENUS). The challenge of the modelling effort is the different nature of both systems. The Angola Gyre, located in a "shadow zone" of the tropical Atlantic, has a low productivity and little ventilation, hence a long residence time of water masses. In the northern Benguela Upwelling System, trade winds drive an intermittent, but permanent nutrient supply into the euphotic zone which fuels a high coastal productivity, large particle export and high oxygen consumption from dissimilatory processes. In addition to the local processes, oxygen-deficient water formed in the Angola Gyre is one of the source water masses of the poleward undercurrent, which feeds oxygen depleted water into the Benguela system. In order to simulate the oxygen distribution in the Benguela system, both physical transport as well as local biological processes need to be carefully adjusted in the model. The focus of the analysis is on the time scale and the relative contribution of the different oxygen related processes to the oxygen budgets in both the oxygen minimum zones. Although these are very different in both the OMZ, the model is found as suitable to produce oxygen minimum zones comparable with observations in the Benguela and the Angola Gyre as well. Variability of the oxygen concentration in the Angola Gyre depends strongly on organismic oxygen consumption, whereas the variability of the oxygen concentration on the Namibian shelf is governed mostly by

  12. Modeling of atmospheric circulation at mid- and high latitudes of the northern hemisphere - evaluation studies using ARPEGE

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Song, Yongjia

    2007-03-15

    In the present thesis the author evaluate experiments with the atmospheric part of BCM (Bergen climate model), named ARPEGE, performed for present day climate during the last 50 years. The objectives have been to evaluate the ability of ARPEGE to simulate the general circulation at mid- and high northern latitudes in winter. Particular emphasis is put on the dependence of systematic errors on the horizontal resolution in the model, the climatology and variability of storm tracks, the poleward energy transport and the North Atlantic winter circulation expressed by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO; e.g. Hurrell 1995). In addition, use of ARPEGE for downscaling purposes has been evaluated. The work on storm tracks, poleward energy transport and the variability of the NAO include pure observational studies, mainly based on reanalyses, bringing forward new knowledge on extratropical storm tracks, heat transport variations and links between Eurasian snow cover and wintertime NAO

  13. Soil Erosion Prediction Using Morgan-Morgan-Finney Model in a GIS Environment in Northern Ethiopia Catchment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gebreyesus Brhane Tesfahunegn

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Even though scientific information on spatial distribution of hydrophysical parameters is critical for understanding erosion processes and designing suitable technologies, little is known in Geographical Information System (GIS application in developing spatial hydrophysical data inputs and their application in Morgan-Morgan-Finney (MMF erosion model. This study was aimed to derive spatial distribution of hydrophysical parameters and apply them in the Morgan-Morgan-Finney (MMF model for estimating soil erosion in the Mai-Negus catchment, northern Ethiopia. Major data input for the model include climate, topography, land use, and soil data. This study demonstrated using MMF model that the rate of soil detachment varied from 170 t ha−1 y−1, whereas the soil transport capacity of overland flow (TC ranged from 5 t ha−1 y−1 to >42 t ha−1 y−1. The average soil loss estimated by TC using MMF model at catchment level was 26 t ha−1 y−1. In most parts of the catchment (>80%, the model predicted soil loss rates higher than the maximum tolerable rate (18 t ha−1 y−1 estimated for Ethiopia. Hence, introducing appropriate interventions based on the erosion severity predicted by MMF model in the catchment is crucial for sustainable natural resources management.

  14. Northern employment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zavitz, J.

    1997-01-01

    Hiring practices and policies and employment opportunities that were available in the Beaufort Sea and MacKenzie Delta project for local residents and for people from southern Canada were dealt with in this chapter. Depending on the source, Northern hiring was a mere token, or a genuine and successful effort on the part of the companies to involve the native population and to share with them the benefits of the project. The fact remains that opening up job opportunities for Northerners was not easily attained, and would never have been realized without the involvement of government and community organizations. Government also played a major role in developing policies and training regimes. By the end of exploration operations, the hiring of Northern residents in the oil and gas industry had become a requirement of drilling applications. Training programs were also created to ensure that Northern residents received the means necessary to take advantage of Northern employment opportunities

  15. Application of the coastal generalized ecosystem model (CGEM) to assess the impacts of a potential future climate scenario on northern Gulf of Mexico hypoxia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mechanistic hypoxia models for the northern Gulf of Mexico are being used to guide policy goals for Mississippi River nutrient loading reductions. However, to date, these models have not examined the effects of both nutrient loads and future climate. Here, we simulate a future c...

  16. Uncertainties in modelling CH4 emissions from northern wetlands in glacial climates: the role of vegetation parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. van Huissteden

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS 3 interstadials are marked by a sharp increase in the atmospheric methane (CH4 concentration, as recorded in ice cores. Wetlands are assumed to be the major source of this CH4, although several other hypotheses have been advanced. Modelling of CH4 emissions is crucial to quantify CH4 sources for past climates. Vegetation effects are generally highly generalized in modelling past and present-day CH4 fluxes, but should not be neglected. Plants strongly affect the soil-atmosphere exchange of CH4 and the net primary production of the vegetation supplies organic matter as substrate for methanogens. For modelling past CH4 fluxes from northern wetlands, assumptions on vegetation are highly relevant since paleobotanical data indicate large differences in Last Glacial (LG wetland vegetation composition as compared to modern wetland vegetation. Besides more cold-adapted vegetation, Sphagnum mosses appear to be much less dominant during large parts of the LG than at present, which particularly affects CH4 oxidation and transport. To evaluate the effect of vegetation parameters, we used the PEATLAND-VU wetland CO2/CH4 model to simulate emissions from wetlands in continental Europe during LG and modern climates. We tested the effect of parameters influencing oxidation during plant transport (fox, vegetation net primary production (NPP, parameter symbol Pmax, plant transport rate (Vtransp, maximum rooting depth (Zroot and root exudation rate (fex. Our model results show that modelled CH4 fluxes are sensitive to fox and Zroot in particular. The effects of Pmax, Vtransp and fex are of lesser relevance. Interactions with water table modelling are significant for Vtransp. We conducted experiments with different wetland vegetation types for Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS 3 stadial and interstadial climates and the present-day climate, by coupling PEATLAND-VU to high resolution climate model simulations for Europe. Experiments assuming

  17. Uncertainties in modelling CH4 emissions from northern wetlands in glacial climates: the role of vegetation parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berrittella, C.; van Huissteden, J.

    2011-10-01

    Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS 3) interstadials are marked by a sharp increase in the atmospheric methane (CH4) concentration, as recorded in ice cores. Wetlands are assumed to be the major source of this CH4, although several other hypotheses have been advanced. Modelling of CH4 emissions is crucial to quantify CH4 sources for past climates. Vegetation effects are generally highly generalized in modelling past and present-day CH4 fluxes, but should not be neglected. Plants strongly affect the soil-atmosphere exchange of CH4 and the net primary production of the vegetation supplies organic matter as substrate for methanogens. For modelling past CH4 fluxes from northern wetlands, assumptions on vegetation are highly relevant since paleobotanical data indicate large differences in Last Glacial (LG) wetland vegetation composition as compared to modern wetland vegetation. Besides more cold-adapted vegetation, Sphagnum mosses appear to be much less dominant during large parts of the LG than at present, which particularly affects CH4 oxidation and transport. To evaluate the effect of vegetation parameters, we used the PEATLAND-VU wetland CO2/CH4 model to simulate emissions from wetlands in continental Europe during LG and modern climates. We tested the effect of parameters influencing oxidation during plant transport (fox), vegetation net primary production (NPP, parameter symbol Pmax), plant transport rate (Vtransp), maximum rooting depth (Zroot) and root exudation rate (fex). Our model results show that modelled CH4 fluxes are sensitive to fox and Zroot in particular. The effects of Pmax, Vtransp and fex are of lesser relevance. Interactions with water table modelling are significant for Vtransp. We conducted experiments with different wetland vegetation types for Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS 3) stadial and interstadial climates and the present-day climate, by coupling PEATLAND-VU to high resolution climate model simulations for Europe. Experiments assuming dominance of

  18. Flash Flood Prediction by Coupling KINEROS2 and HEC-RAS Models for Tropical Regions of Northern Vietnam

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hong Quang Nguyen

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Northern Vietnam is a region prone to heavy flash flooding events. These often have devastating effects on the environment, cause economic damage and, in the worst case scenario, cost human lives. As their frequency and severity are likely to increase in the future, procedures have to be established to cope with this threat. As the prediction of potential flash floods represents one crucial element in this circumstance, we will present an approach that combines the two models KINEROS2 and HEC-RAS in order to accurately predict their occurrence. We used a documented event on 23 June 2011 in the Nam Khat and the larger adjacent Nam Kim watershed to calibrate the coupled model approach. Afterward, we evaluated the performance of the coupled models in predicting flow velocity (FV, water levels (WL, discharge (Q and streamflow power (P during the 3–5 days following the event, using two different precipitation datasets from the global spectral model (GSM and the high resolution model (HRM. Our results show that the estimated Q and WL closely matched observed data with a Nash–Sutcliffe simulation efficiency coefficient (NSE of around 0.93 and a coefficient of determination (R2 at above 0.96. The resulting analyses reveal strong relationships between river geometry and FV, WL and P. Although there were some minor errors in forecast results, the model-predicted Q and WL corresponded well to the gauged data.

  19. Modeling of site occupancy dynamics for northern spotted owls, with emphasis on the effects of barred owls

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olson, Gail S.; Anthony, Robert G.; Forsman, Eric D.; Ackers, Steven H.; Loschl, Peter J.; Reid, Janice A.; Dugger, Katie M.; Glenn, Elizabeth M.; Ripple, William J.

    2005-01-01

    Northern spotted owls (Strix occidentalis caurina) have been studied intensively since their listing as a threatened species by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service in 1990. Studies of spotted owl site occupancy have used various binary response measures, but most of these studies have made the assumption that detectability is perfect, or at least high and not variable. Further, previous studies did not consider temporal variation in site occupancy. We used relatively new methods for open population modeling of site occupancy that incorporated imperfect and variable detectability of spotted owls and allowed modeling of temporal variation in site occupancy, extinction, and colonization probabilities. We also examined the effects of barred owl (S. varia) presence on these parameters. We used spotted owl survey data from 1990 to 2002 for 3 study areas in Oregon, USA, and we used program MARK to develop and analyze site occupancy models. We found per visit detection probabilities averaged variable among study years and study areas. Site occupancy probabilities for owl pairs declined greatly on 1 study area and slightly on the other 2 areas. For all owls, including singles and pairs, site occupancy was mostly stable through time. Barred owl presence had a negative effect on spotted owl detection probabilities, and it had either a positive effect on local-extinction probabilities or a negative effect on colonization probabilities. We conclude that further analyses of spotted owls must account for imperfect and variable detectability and barred owl presence to properly interpret results. Further, because barred owl presence is increasing within the range of northern spotted owls, we expect to see further declines in the proportion of sites occupied by spotted owls.

  20. Increasing organic C and N fluxes from a northern Boreal river basin - monitoring and modelling suggest climate related controls

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lepistö, A.; Futter, M.; Kortelainen, P.

    2012-04-01

    Increasing trends in total organic carbon (TOC) concentrations in lakes and streams across northern Europe and North America have been reported. Various hypotheses including enhanced decomposition of organic soils, changes in hydrology and flow paths, decreased acid deposition and land use changes have been put forward to explain the widespread occurrence of this phenomenon. Both observational and modelling studies are needed to identify the most important drivers and relevant processes controlling observed trends in TOC concentrations. Typically, TOC concentrations in Finnish rivers and lakes are high. The Simojoki river basin (3160 km2) is located in the northern Boreal zone of Finland and experiences low, declining sulphate deposition and limited other human impacts. Forest harvest, land drainage and ditch maintenance are the main land management activities in the catchment. Long-term changes (30-40 years) and seasonal trends of total organic nitrogen (TON) and carbon (TOC) concentrations and fluxes in the Simojoki river system were studied. Concentrations of TOC and TON increased particularly during high flows. TOC concentrations are slowly but continuously increasing, fluctuating between droughts and wet periods. The highest concentrations were detected in 1998-2000 during a period of very high flows, after the drought period 1994-1997. Trends in concentrations of TOC and TON in Simojoki were not linked to declines in sulphate deposition but were more related to trends in climate and hydrology. The autumn season is particularly sensitive to climate change impacts. The INCA-C model was applied to simulate TOC dynamics in the catchment. Model results showed that climate change driven patterns in runoff and soil moisture and soil temperature were more important than temporal patterns of sulphate deposition and land management in controlling surface water TOC concentrations. The possible factors behind changes of TOC and TON concentrations and increasing fluxes to

  1. Deriving habitat models for northern long-eared bats from historical detection data: A case study using the Fernow Experimental Forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ford, W. Mark; Silvis, Alexander; Rodrigue, Jane L.; Kniowski, Andrew B.; Johnson, Joshua B.

    2016-01-01

    The listing of the northern long-eared bat (Myotis septentrionalis) as federally threatened under the Endangered Species Act following severe population declines from white-nose syndrome presents considerable challenges to natural resource managers. Because the northern long-eared bat is a forest habitat generalist, development of effective conservation measures will depend on appropriate understanding of its habitat relationships at individual locations. However, severely reduced population sizes make gathering data for such models difficult. As a result, historical data may be essential in development of habitat models. To date, there has been little evaluation of how effective historical bat presence data, such as data derived from mist-net captures, acoustic detection, and day-roost locations, may be in developing habitat models, nor is it clear how models created using different data sources may differ. We explored this issue by creating presence probability models for the northern long-eared bat on the Fernow Experimental Forest in the central Appalachian Mountains of West Virginia using a historical, presence-only data set. Each presence data type produced outputs that were dissimilar but that still corresponded with known traits of the northern long-eared bat or are easily explained in the context of the particular data collection protocol. However, our results also highlight potential limitations of individual data types. For example, models from mist-net capture data only showed high probability of presence along the dendritic network of riparian areas, an obvious artifact of sampling methodology. Development of ecological niche and presence models for northern long-eared bat populations could be highly valuable for resource managers going forward with this species. We caution, however, that efforts to create such models should consider the substantial limitations of models derived from historical data, and address model assumptions.

  2. Long-term changes in lower tropospheric baseline ozone concentrations: Comparing chemistry-climate models and observations at northern midlatitudes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parrish, D. D.; Lamarque, J.-F.; Naik, V.; Horowitz, L.; Shindell, D. T.; Staehelin, J.; Derwent, R.; Cooper, O. R.; Tanimoto, H.; Volz-Thomas, A.; Gilge, S.; Scheel, H.-E.; Steinbacher, M.; Fröhlich, M.

    2014-05-01

    Two recent papers have quantified long-term ozone (O3) changes observed at northern midlatitude sites that are believed to represent baseline (here understood as representative of continental to hemispheric scales) conditions. Three chemistry-climate models (NCAR CAM-chem, GFDL-CM3, and GISS-E2-R) have calculated retrospective tropospheric O3 concentrations as part of the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 model intercomparisons. We present an approach for quantitative comparisons of model results with measurements for seasonally averaged O3 concentrations. There is considerable qualitative agreement between the measurements and the models, but there are also substantial and consistent quantitative disagreements. Most notably, models (1) overestimate absolute O3 mixing ratios, on average by 5 to 17 ppbv in the year 2000, (2) capture only 50% of O3 changes observed over the past five to six decades, and little of observed seasonal differences, and (3) capture 25 to 45% of the rate of change of the long-term changes. These disagreements are significant enough to indicate that only limited confidence can be placed on estimates of present-day radiative forcing of tropospheric O3 derived from modeled historic concentration changes and on predicted future O3 concentrations. Evidently our understanding of tropospheric O3, or the incorporation of chemistry and transport processes into current chemical climate models, is incomplete. Modeled O3 trends approximately parallel estimated trends in anthropogenic emissions of NOx, an important O3 precursor, while measured O3 changes increase more rapidly than these emission estimates.

  3. A Poisson regression approach to model monthly hail occurrence in Northern Switzerland using large-scale environmental variables

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madonna, Erica; Ginsbourger, David; Martius, Olivia

    2018-05-01

    In Switzerland, hail regularly causes substantial damage to agriculture, cars and infrastructure, however, little is known about its long-term variability. To study the variability, the monthly number of days with hail in northern Switzerland is modeled in a regression framework using large-scale predictors derived from ERA-Interim reanalysis. The model is developed and verified using radar-based hail observations for the extended summer season (April-September) in the period 2002-2014. The seasonality of hail is explicitly modeled with a categorical predictor (month) and monthly anomalies of several large-scale predictors are used to capture the year-to-year variability. Several regression models are applied and their performance tested with respect to standard scores and cross-validation. The chosen model includes four predictors: the monthly anomaly of the two meter temperature, the monthly anomaly of the logarithm of the convective available potential energy (CAPE), the monthly anomaly of the wind shear and the month. This model well captures the intra-annual variability and slightly underestimates its inter-annual variability. The regression model is applied to the reanalysis data back in time to 1980. The resulting hail day time series shows an increase of the number of hail days per month, which is (in the model) related to an increase in temperature and CAPE. The trend corresponds to approximately 0.5 days per month per decade. The results of the regression model have been compared to two independent data sets. All data sets agree on the sign of the trend, but the trend is weaker in the other data sets.

  4. Analysis of the spatial variation in the parameters of the SWAT model with application in Flanders, Northern Belgium

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Heuvelmans

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available Operational applications of a hydrological model often require the prediction of stream flow in (future time periods without stream flow observations or in ungauged catchments. Data for a case-specific optimisation of model parameters are not available for such applications, so parameters have to be derived from other catchments or time periods. It has been demonstrated that for applications of the SWAT in Northern Belgium, temporal transfers of the parameters have less influence than spatial transfers on the performance of the model. This study examines the spatial variation in parameter optima in more detail. The aim was to delineate zones wherein model parameters can be transferred without a significant loss of model performance. SWAT was calibrated for 25 catchments that are part of eight larger sub-basins of the Scheldt river basin. Two approaches are discussed for grouping these units in zones with a uniform set of parameters: a single parameter approach considering each parameter separately and a parameter set approach evaluating the parameterisation as a whole. For every catchment, the SWAT model was run with the local parameter optima, with the average parameter values for the entire study region (Flanders, with the zones delineated with the single parameter approach and with the zones obtained by the parameter set approach. Comparison of the model performances of these four parameterisation strategies indicates that both the single parameter and the parameter set zones lead to stream flow predictions that are more accurate than if the entire study region were treated as one single zone. On the other hand, the use of zonal average parameter values results in a considerably worse model fit compared to local parameter optima. Clustering of parameter sets gives a more accurate result than the single parameter approach and is, therefore, the preferred technique for use in the parameterisation of ungauged sub-catchments as part of the

  5. A comparative assessment of decision trees algorithms for flash flood susceptibility modeling at Haraz watershed, northern Iran.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khosravi, Khabat; Pham, Binh Thai; Chapi, Kamran; Shirzadi, Ataollah; Shahabi, Himan; Revhaug, Inge; Prakash, Indra; Tien Bui, Dieu

    2018-06-15

    Floods are one of the most damaging natural hazards causing huge loss of property, infrastructure and lives. Prediction of occurrence of flash flood locations is very difficult due to sudden change in climatic condition and manmade factors. However, prior identification of flood susceptible areas can be done with the help of machine learning techniques for proper timely management of flood hazards. In this study, we tested four decision trees based machine learning models namely Logistic Model Trees (LMT), Reduced Error Pruning Trees (REPT), Naïve Bayes Trees (NBT), and Alternating Decision Trees (ADT) for flash flood susceptibility mapping at the Haraz Watershed in the northern part of Iran. For this, a spatial database was constructed with 201 present and past flood locations and eleven flood-influencing factors namely ground slope, altitude, curvature, Stream Power Index (SPI), Topographic Wetness Index (TWI), land use, rainfall, river density, distance from river, lithology, and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). Statistical evaluation measures, the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve, and Freidman and Wilcoxon signed-rank tests were used to validate and compare the prediction capability of the models. Results show that the ADT model has the highest prediction capability for flash flood susceptibility assessment, followed by the NBT, the LMT, and the REPT, respectively. These techniques have proven successful in quickly determining flood susceptible areas. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. Hydrogeological modeling constraints provided by geophysical and geochemical mapping of a chlorinated ethenes plume in northern France

    Science.gov (United States)

    Razafindratsima, Stephen; Guérin, Roger; Bendjoudi, Hocine; de Marsily, Ghislain

    2014-09-01

    A methodological approach is described which combines geophysical and geochemical data to delineate the extent of a chlorinated ethenes plume in northern France; the methodology was used to calibrate a hydrogeological model of the contaminants' migration and degradation. The existence of strong reducing conditions in some parts of the aquifer is first determined by measuring in situ the redox potential and dissolved oxygen, dissolved ferrous iron and chloride concentrations. Electrical resistivity imaging and electromagnetic mapping, using the Slingram method, are then used to determine the shape of the pollutant plume. A decreasing empirical exponential relation between measured chloride concentrations in the water and aquifer electrical resistivity is observed; the resistivity formation factor calculated at a few points also shows a major contribution of chloride concentration in the resistivity of the saturated porous medium. MODFLOW software and MT3D99 first-order parent-daughter chain reaction and the RT3D aerobic-anaerobic model for tetrachloroethene (PCE)/trichloroethene (TCE) dechlorination are finally used for a first attempt at modeling the degradation of the chlorinated ethenes. After calibration, the distribution of the chlorinated ethenes and their degradation products simulated with the model approximately reflects the mean measured values in the observation wells, confirming the data-derived image of the plume.

  7. Amplified warming projections for high altitude regions of the northern hemisphere mid-latitudes from CMIP5 models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rangwala, Imtiaz; Sinsky, Eric; Miller, James R

    2013-01-01

    We use output from global climate models available from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) for three different greenhouse gas emission scenarios to investigate whether the projected warming in mountains by the end of the 21st century is significantly different from that in low elevation regions. To remove the effects of latitudinal variation in warming rates, we focus on seasonal changes in the mid-latitude band of the northern hemisphere between 27.5° N and 40° N, where the two major mountain systems are the Tibetan Plateau/Himalayas in Asia and the Rocky Mountains in the United States. Results from the multi-model ensemble indicate that warming rates in mountains will be enhanced relative to non-mountain regions at the same latitude, particularly during the cold season. The strongest correlations of enhanced warming with elevation are obtained for the daily minimum temperature during winter, with the largest increases found for the Tibetan Plateau/Himalayas. The model projections indicate that this occurs, in part, because of proportionally greater increases in downward longwave radiation at higher elevations in response to increases in water vapor. The mechanisms for enhanced increases in winter and spring maximum temperatures in the Rockies appear to be influenced more by increases in surface absorption of solar radiation owing to a reduced snow cover. Furthermore, the amplification of warming with elevation is greater for a higher greenhouse gas emission scenario. (letter)

  8. Multi-site calibration, validation, and sensitivity analysis of the MIKE SHE Model for a large watershed in northern China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Wang

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Model calibration is essential for hydrologic modeling of large watersheds in a heterogeneous mountain environment. Little guidance is available for model calibration protocols for distributed models that aim at capturing the spatial variability of hydrologic processes. This study used the physically-based distributed hydrologic model, MIKE SHE, to contrast a lumped calibration protocol that used streamflow measured at one single watershed outlet to a multi-site calibration method which employed streamflow measurements at three stations within the large Chaohe River basin in northern China. Simulation results showed that the single-site calibrated model was able to sufficiently simulate the hydrographs for two of the three stations (Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of 0.65–0.75, and correlation coefficient 0.81–0.87 during the testing period, but the model performed poorly for the third station (Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient only 0.44. Sensitivity analysis suggested that streamflow of upstream area of the watershed was dominated by slow groundwater, whilst streamflow of middle- and down- stream areas by relatively quick interflow. Therefore, a multi-site calibration protocol was deemed necessary. Due to the potential errors and uncertainties with respect to the representation of spatial variability, performance measures from the multi-site calibration protocol slightly decreased for two of the three stations, whereas it was improved greatly for the third station. We concluded that multi-site calibration protocol reached a compromise in term of model performance for the three stations, reasonably representing the hydrographs of all three stations with Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient ranging from 0.59–072. The multi-site calibration protocol applied in the analysis generally has advantages to the single site calibration protocol.

  9. Hydrological application of the INCA model with varying spatial resolution and nitrogen dynamics in a northern river basin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Rankinen

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available As a first step in applying the Integrated Nitrogen model for CAtchments (INCA to the Simojoki river basin (3160 km2, this paper focuses on calibration of the hydrological part of the model and nitrogen (N dynamics in the river during the 1980s and 1990s. The model application utilised the GIS land-use and forest classification of Finland together with a recent forest inventory based on remote sensing. In the INCA model, the Hydrologically Effective Rainfall (HER is used to drive the water flow and N fluxes through the catchment system. HER was derived from the Watershed Simulation and Forecast System (WSFS. The basic component of the WSFS is a conceptual hydrological model which simulates runoff using precipitation, potential evapotranspiration and temperature data as inputs. Spatially uniform, lumped input data were calculated for the whole river basin and spatially semi-distributed input data were calculated for each of the nine sub-basins. When comparing discharges simulated by the INCA model with observed values, a better fit was obtained with the semi-distributed data than with the spatially uniform data (R2 0.78 v. 0.70 at Hosionkoski and 0.88 v. 0.78 at the river outlet. The timing of flow peaks was simulated rather well with both approaches, although the semi-distributed input data gave a more realistic simulation of low flow periods and the magnitude of spring flow peaks. The river basin has a relatively closed N cycle with low input and output fluxes of inorganic N. During 1982-2000, the average total N flux to the sea was 715 tonnes yr–1, of which 6% was NH4-N, 14% NO3-N, and 80% organic N. Annual variation in river flow and the concentrations of major N fractions in river water, and factors affecting this variation are discussed. Keywords: northern river basin, nitrogen, forest management, hydrology, dynamic modelling, semi-distributed modelling

  10. HYDROGEOLOGY AND CONCEPTUAL MODEL OF THE KARSTIC COASTAL AQUIFER IN NORTHERN YUCATAN STATE, MEXICO

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miguel J Villasuso-Pino

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available The coastal zone of northern Yucatan Peninsula (YP is mainly constituted by Tertiary limestones, covered by Pleistocen limestones, where there exist swamps and estuary systems, locally called “rías”, with mouths connecting them to the sea and hence being a way for an important amount of groundwater to discharge, like in Ría Lagartos and Celestún. These limestones have karstic layers located at depths from 8 to 16 meters below terrain surface.  It is in these layers where groundwater mainly flows toward coast, passing below the sand dune and discharging in the sea in the form of submarine springs which in many cases manifest themselves on the marine surface depending on the hydraulic or piezometric fresh water head. The width of the superficial limestone within this coastal fringe, called “caliche”, varies from 5 to 10 kilometers in the study zone (Chuburna-Progreso-Chicxulub.  Its permeability is extremely low, so it constitutes a confining layer that impedes superficial waters to percolate toward groundwater.  The hydraulic head of the groundwater below this confining layer is over the mean sea level and also over the swamp water level, coastal lagoons and estuaries. There are two important hydrological phenomena that occur in this coastal fringe: 1 There is no recharge to the aquifer (groundwater due to limestone rock outcrops is impermeable or semipermeable; and 2 groundwater pressure is not lost, nor saline interfase is rised if the superficial layer is broken.  The groundwater pollution vulnerability within this coastal fringe is less than that for the superficial saline waters of swamps and estuaries, because of caliche’s low intrinsic permeability that impedes percolation.

  11. Dynamics and conceptual model of the Rossena castle landslide (Northern Apennines, Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Chelli

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available In the Northern Apennines there are many historical villages and castles, which are of great value and represent a cultural heritage of great importance. Their presence within a territory greatly affected by landslide hazards creates, in many circumstances, the need to solve problems of land management and to act for the preservation of historical monuments. This paper describe an interesting landslide, failed during the night of 28 February 2004, that involved the village of Rossena: the failure damaged the village (Fig. 1, the road and the fields down to the stream but, fortunately, the castle just upslope the village was not involved at all. The 10th century massive castle of Rossena stands on the top of a cliff at about 500 m a.s.l., on the border between the provinces of Parma and Reggio Emilia, and it is surrounded by a small ancient village. The castle of Rossena is the best preserved stronghold of the Longobard times, enlarged and reinforced in the tenth century and partially rebuilt by Bonifacio, the father of Matilda of Canossa (the Vice-Queen of Italy and probably the most important woman in the Middle Ages as a defensive structure guarding the Enza Valley. In addition, at Conossa, very close to Rossena, there was the meeting between Pope Gregory VII and the Emperor of Germany Henry IV, during the historical event known as 'fight for the investitures'. For these reasons, the area of Rossena is one of the most relevant from a historical point of view in the entire western part of the Emilia Romagna Region and it also has a high value as a geosite (Coratza et al., 2004.  

  12. Dynamics and conceptual model of the Rossena castle landslide (Northern Apennines, Italy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chelli, A.; Mandrone, G.; Ruffini, A.; Truffelli, G.

    2005-11-01

    In the Northern Apennines there are many historical villages and castles, which are of great value and represent a cultural heritage of great importance. Their presence within a territory greatly affected by landslide hazards creates, in many circumstances, the need to solve problems of land management and to act for the preservation of historical monuments. This paper describe an interesting landslide, failed during the night of 28 February 2004, that involved the village of Rossena: the failure damaged the village (Fig. 1), the road and the fields down to the stream but, fortunately, the castle just upslope the village was not involved at all. The 10th century massive castle of Rossena stands on the top of a cliff at about 500 m a.s.l., on the border between the provinces of Parma and Reggio Emilia, and it is surrounded by a small ancient village. The castle of Rossena is the best preserved stronghold of the Longobard times, enlarged and reinforced in the tenth century and partially rebuilt by Bonifacio, the father of Matilda of Canossa (the Vice-Queen of Italy and probably the most important woman in the Middle Ages) as a defensive structure guarding the Enza Valley. In addition, at Conossa, very close to Rossena, there was the meeting between Pope Gregory VII and the Emperor of Germany Henry IV, during the historical event known as "fight for the investitures". For these reasons, the area of Rossena is one of the most relevant from a historical point of view in the entire western part of the Emilia Romagna Region and it also has a high value as a geosite (Coratza et al., 2004).

  13. Groundwater-flow model of the northern High Plains aquifer in Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, South Dakota, and Wyoming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peterson, Steven M.; Flynn, Amanda T.; Traylor, Jonathan P.

    2016-12-13

    The High Plains aquifer is a nationally important water resource underlying about 175,000 square miles in parts of eight states: Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma, Nebraska, New Mexico, South Dakota, Texas, and Wyoming. Droughts across much of the Northern High Plains from 2001 to 2007 have combined with recent (2004) legislative mandates to elevate concerns regarding future availability of groundwater and the need for additional information to support science-based water-resource management. To address these needs, the U.S. Geological Survey began the High Plains Groundwater Availability Study to provide a tool for water-resource managers and other stakeholders to assess the status and availability of groundwater resources.A transient groundwater-flow model was constructed using the U.S. Geological Survey modular three-dimensional finite-difference groundwater-flow model with Newton-Rhapson solver (MODFLOW–NWT). The model uses an orthogonal grid of 565 rows and 795 columns, and each grid cell measures 3,281 feet per side, with one variably thick vertical layer, simulated as unconfined. Groundwater flow was simulated for two distinct periods: (1) the period before substantial groundwater withdrawals, or before about 1940, and (2) the period of increasing groundwater withdrawals from May 1940 through April 2009. A soil-water-balance model was used to estimate recharge from precipitation and groundwater withdrawals for irrigation. The soil-water-balance model uses spatially distributed soil and landscape properties with daily weather data and estimated historical land-cover maps to calculate spatial and temporal variations in potential recharge. Mean annual recharge estimated for 1940–49, early in the history of groundwater development, and 2000–2009, late in the history of groundwater development, was 3.3 and 3.5 inches per year, respectively.Primary model calibration was completed using statistical techniques through parameter estimation using the parameter

  14. Perceptions of the Impact of Online Learning as a Distance-Based Learning Model on the Professional Practices of Working Nurses in Northern Ontario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carter, Lorraine; Hanna, Mary; Warry, Wayne

    2016-01-01

    Nurses in Canada face diverse challenges to their ongoing educational pursuits. As a result, they have been early adopters of courses and programs based on distance education principles and, in particular, online learning models. In the study described in this paper, nurses studying at two northern universities, in programs involving online…

  15. Dynamic modeling of organophosphate pesticide load in surface water in the northern San Joaquin Valley watershed of California

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Luo Yuzhou [Department of Land, Air and Water Resources, University of California, Davis, CA 95616 (United States); Institute of Watershed Science and Environmental Ecology, Wenzhou Medical College, Wenzhou, 325000 (China); Zhang Xuyang [Department of Land, Air and Water Resources, University of California, Davis, CA 95616 (United States); Liu Xingmei [Department of Land, Air and Water Resources, University of California, Davis, CA 95616 (United States); Institute of Soil, Water and Environmental Science, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310029 (China); Ficklin, Darren [Department of Land, Air and Water Resources, University of California, Davis, CA 95616 (United States); Zhang Minghua [Department of Land, Air and Water Resources, University of California, Davis, CA 95616 (United States); Institute of Watershed Science and Environmental Ecology, Wenzhou Medical College, Wenzhou, 325000 (China)], E-mail: mhzhang@ucdavis.edu

    2008-12-15

    The hydrology, sediment, and pesticide transport components of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) were evaluated on the northern San Joaquin Valley watershed of California. The Nash-Sutcliffe coefficients for monthly stream flow and sediment load ranged from 0.49 to 0.99 over the watershed during the study period of 1992-2005. The calibrated SWAT model was applied to simulate fate and transport processes of two organophosphate pesticides of diazinon and chlorpyrifos at watershed scale. The model generated satisfactory predictions of dissolved pesticide loads relative to the monitoring data. The model also showed great success in capturing spatial patterns of dissolved diazinon and chlorpyrifos loads according to the soil properties and landscape morphology over the large agricultural watershed. This study indicated that curve number was the major factor influencing the hydrology while pesticide fate and transport were mainly affected by surface runoff and pesticide application and in the study area. - Major factors governing the instream loads of organophosphate pesticides are magnitude and timing of surface runoff and pesticide application.

  16. Dynamic modeling of organophosphate pesticide load in surface water in the northern San Joaquin Valley watershed of California

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Luo Yuzhou; Zhang Xuyang; Liu Xingmei; Ficklin, Darren; Zhang Minghua

    2008-01-01

    The hydrology, sediment, and pesticide transport components of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) were evaluated on the northern San Joaquin Valley watershed of California. The Nash-Sutcliffe coefficients for monthly stream flow and sediment load ranged from 0.49 to 0.99 over the watershed during the study period of 1992-2005. The calibrated SWAT model was applied to simulate fate and transport processes of two organophosphate pesticides of diazinon and chlorpyrifos at watershed scale. The model generated satisfactory predictions of dissolved pesticide loads relative to the monitoring data. The model also showed great success in capturing spatial patterns of dissolved diazinon and chlorpyrifos loads according to the soil properties and landscape morphology over the large agricultural watershed. This study indicated that curve number was the major factor influencing the hydrology while pesticide fate and transport were mainly affected by surface runoff and pesticide application and in the study area. - Major factors governing the instream loads of organophosphate pesticides are magnitude and timing of surface runoff and pesticide application

  17. Validation of groundwater modelling for DDT and petroleum hydrocarbons at Border Pump Station and Rainy Hollow, northern British Columbia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dodd, M.; Bright, D.; Hartshorne, B.

    2001-01-01

    Border Station and Rainy Hollow are inactive booster pumping stations along the Haines-Fairbanks Pipeline in northern British Columbia. An emergency site cleanup was conducted in 1994 after canisters containing DDT [1,1,1-trichloro-2,2-bis(p-chloro phenyl)ethane] were discovered buried in a dump. A detailed site investigation showed that hydrocarbons and DDT were present in soil and groundwater. The major contaminants of concern were DDTs in surface soil, DDTs in subsurface soils and groundwater, and light hydrocarbons in subsurface soils and groundwater. Remedial action took place in the summer of 1997. The canisters, along with soils and other contaminated materials, were excavated and shipped off-site for disposal. A conceptual groundwater model was developed to predict future contaminant releases to the nearby Klehini River. A monitoring program was initiated to validate the groundwater model. From 1997 to 2000, the groundwater was sampled analyzed annually for DDT, metals and hydrocarbons. Results indicated a striking overall consistency in the concentrations of DDT and hydrocarbons in both groundwater and surface water samples, confirming the validity of the 1996 model predictions. 12 refs., 1 tab., 4 figs

  18. Predictive habitat models derived from nest-box occupancy for the endangered Carolina northern flying squirrel in the southern Appalachians

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ford, W. Mark; Evans, A.M.; Odom, Richard H.; Rodrigue, Jane L.; Kelly, C.A.; Abaid, Nicole; Diggins, Corinne A.; Newcomb, Doug

    2016-01-01

    In the southern Appalachians, artificial nest-boxes are used to survey for the endangered Carolina northern flying squirrel (CNFS; Glaucomys sabrinus coloratus), a disjunct subspecies associated with high elevation (>1385 m) forests. Using environmental parameters diagnostic of squirrel habitat, we created 35 a priori occupancy models in the program PRESENCE for boxes surveyed in western North Carolina, 1996-2011. Our best approximating model showed CNFS denning associated with sheltered landforms and montane conifers, primarily red spruce Picea rubens. As sheltering decreased, decreasing distance to conifers was important. Area with a high probability (>0.5) of occupancy was distributed over 18662 ha of habitat, mostly across 10 mountain ranges. Because nest-box surveys underrepresented areas >1750 m and CNFS forage in conifers, we combined areas of high occupancy with conifer GIS coverages to create an additional distribution model of likely habitat. Regionally, above 1385 m, we determined that 31795 ha could be occupied by CNFS. Known occupied patches ranged from

  19. Modeling land subsidence due to shallow-water hydrocarbon production: A case study in the northern Adriatic Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gambolati, G.; Castelletto, N.; Ferronato, M.; Janna, C.; Teatini, P.

    2012-12-01

    One major environmental concern of subsurface fluid withdrawal is land subsidence. The issue of a reliable estimate and prediction of the expected anthropogenic land subsidence is particularly important whenever the production of hydrocarbon (oil and gas) occurs from large reservoirs located close to deltaic zones (e.g., Mississippi, Po, Nile, Niger, Yellow rivers) or shallow-water with low-lying coastlands (e.g., Northern Caspian sea, Dutch Wadden Sea). In such cases even a small reduction of the ground elevation relative to the mean sea level may impact seriously on human settlements and natural environment. The monitoring of the ongoing land subsidence has been significantly improved over the last decade by SAR-based interferometry. These measurements can be quite effectively used to map the process and calibrate geomechanical models for predicting the future event. However, this powerful methodology cannot be implemented off-shore. Although permanent GPS stations can be established to monitor the movement of the production facilities usually installed above the gravity center of a reservoir, an accurate characterization of the settlement bowl affecting the sea bottom, with a possible migration toward the shore, is a challenge still today. In the present communication the case study of the Riccione gas reservoir is discussed. The field is located in the near-shore northern Adriatic Sea, approximately 15 km far from the coastline, where the seawater height is about 20 m. The gas-bearing strata are 1100 m deep and are hydraulically connected to a relatively weak aquifer. Production of 70% of the cumulative reserves as of 2006 yielded a pore pressure decrease of 60 bars. Reliable geometry and geomechanical properties of the depleted formations were detected with the aid of a 3D seismic survey and a borehole equipped with radioactive markers, respectively. The latter pointed out that the Riccione formations are characterized by an unusually high oedometer

  20. Looking Forward: Using Scenario Modeling to Support Regional Land Use Planning in Northern Yukon, Canada

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shawn R. Francis

    2011-12-01

    We describe how the ALCES® landscape cumulative effects simulation model was used to explore possible outcomes of an oil and gas scenario in the Eagle Plain basin of the North Yukon Planning Region of Yukon Territory, Canada. Scenario modeling was conducted to facilitate informed discussion about key land use issues and practices, potential levels of landscape change, and possible socioeconomic benefits and environmental impacts. Modeling results supported the sustainable development and cumulative effects management recommendations of the North Yukon Regional Land Use Plan. Land use scenario modeling, as applied in this project, was found to be an effective approach for establishing sustainable development guidelines through a regional planning process.

  1. A modelling framework for reclamation planning of oil sands mines in northern Alberta

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shaw, R.D.; Hamilton, H.R.; MacKinnon, M.D.; Gulley, J.R.

    1995-01-01

    The Reclamation Landscape Model Development Project was initiated in 1991 to develop a modelling framework to assist in oil sands mine reclamation planning. The initial year focused on developing a suite of computer simulation models suitable for evaluating hydrodynamic, water quality and biological conditions of fine-tails bottom lakes that would be capped with a layer of fresh water. That modelling framework was further refined in 1992--93 by incorporating probabilistic capabilities, developing of secondary production and food-chain components, and implementing of a model to simulate contaminant concentrations in the Athabasca River. In 1993--94 the emphasis expanded from a focus solely on developing tools for evaluating wet landscape options to developing an integrated modelling framework capable of evaluating both wet and dry landscape reclamation options. Major components completed in 1993--94 included development of a dry landscape module that includes surface runoff, groundwater seepage, air vapor and bioaccumulation components, a wetlands module to assist in evaluating treatment potential and for optimizing design of wetlands units, and a risk analysis module for quantifying risks to human health and ecological receptors. The Reclamation Landscape Model is a compartment modelling system that consists of a number of stand-alone computer programs that can be run in conjunction with one another or separately. The computer programs that simulate contaminant-fate processes range from simple empirical models to complex, mechanistic, three-dimensional, dynamic models, which are capable of predicting contaminant concentrations in water, soil, air and biota for a wide range of reclamation landscape units. Most of the component models have probabilistic capabilities

  2. Back to the Future: Do Lessons from Finland Point the Way to a Return to Model Schools for Northern Ireland?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moran, Anne; Clarke, Linda

    2012-01-01

    The paper examines the school-based element of initial teacher education (ITE) and the ways in which it contributes to the professional learning of student teachers in Finland (University of Helsinki) and Northern Ireland (University of Ulster). In particular it seeks to assess the potential of Training Schools for Northern Ireland. Universities…

  3. Atmospheric Dust Modeling from Meso to Global Scales with the Online NMMB/BSC-Dust Model Part 2: Experimental Campaigns in Northern Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haustein, K.; Perez, C.; Baldasano, J. M.; Jorba, O.; Basart, S.; Miller, R. L.; Janjic, Z.; Black, T.; Nickovic, S.; Todd, M. C.; hide

    2012-01-01

    The new NMMB/BSC-Dust model is intended to provide short to medium-range weather and dust forecasts from regional to global scales. It is an online model in which the dust aerosol dynamics and physics are solved at each model time step. The companion paper (Perez et al., 2011) develops the dust model parameterizations and provides daily to annual evaluations of the model for its global and regional configurations. Modeled aerosol optical depth (AOD) was evaluated against AERONET Sun photometers over Northern Africa, Middle East and Europe with correlations around 0.6-0.7 on average without dust data assimilation. In this paper we analyze in detail the behavior of the model using data from the Saharan Mineral dUst experiment (SAMUM-1) in 2006 and the Bodele Dust Experiment (BoDEx) in 2005. AOD from satellites and Sun photometers, vertically resolved extinction coefficients from lidars and particle size distributions at the ground and in the troposphere are used, complemented by wind profile data and surface meteorological measurements. All simulations were performed at the regional scale for the Northern African domain at the expected operational horizontal resolution of 25 km. Model results for SAMUM-1 generally show good agreement with satellite data over the most active Saharan dust sources. The model reproduces the AOD from Sun photometers close to sources and after long-range transport, and the dust size spectra at different height levels. At this resolution, the model is not able to reproduce a large haboob that occurred during the campaign. Some deficiencies are found concerning the vertical dust distribution related to the representation of the mixing height in the atmospheric part of the model. For the BoDEx episode, we found the diurnal temperature cycle to be strongly dependant on the soil moisture, which is underestimated in the NCEP analysis used for model initialization. The low level jet (LLJ) and the dust AOD over the Bodélé are well reproduced

  4. Atmospheric dust modeling from meso to global scales with the online NMMB/BSC-Dust model – Part 2: Experimental campaigns in Northern Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Haustein

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available The new NMMB/BSC-Dust model is intended to provide short to medium-range weather and dust forecasts from regional to global scales. It is an online model in which the dust aerosol dynamics and physics are solved at each model time step. The companion paper (Pérez et al., 2011 develops the dust model parameterizations and provides daily to annual evaluations of the model for its global and regional configurations. Modeled aerosol optical depth (AOD was evaluated against AERONET Sun photometers over Northern Africa, Middle East and Europe with correlations around 0.6–0.7 on average without dust data assimilation. In this paper we analyze in detail the behavior of the model using data from the Saharan Mineral dUst experiment (SAMUM-1 in 2006 and the Bodélé Dust Experiment (BoDEx in 2005. AOD from satellites and Sun photometers, vertically resolved extinction coefficients from lidars and particle size distributions at the ground and in the troposphere are used, complemented by wind profile data and surface meteorological measurements. All simulations were performed at the regional scale for the Northern African domain at the expected operational horizontal resolution of 25 km. Model results for SAMUM-1 generally show good agreement with satellite data over the most active Saharan dust sources. The model reproduces the AOD from Sun photometers close to sources and after long-range transport, and the dust size spectra at different height levels. At this resolution, the model is not able to reproduce a large haboob that occurred during the campaign. Some deficiencies are found concerning the vertical dust distribution related to the representation of the mixing height in the atmospheric part of the model. For the BoDEx episode, we found the diurnal temperature cycle to be strongly dependant on the soil moisture, which is underestimated in the NCEP analysis used for model initialization. The low level jet (LLJ and the dust AOD over the Bodélé are

  5. Calibration and Validation of A One-dimensional Complex Marine Biogeochemicalfluxes Model In Different Areas of The Northern Adriatic Shelf.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vichi, M.; Oddo, P.; Zavatarelli, M.; Coluccelli, A.; Coppini, G.; Celio, M.; Fonda Umani, S.; Pinardi, N.

    In this contribution we show results from numerical simulations carried out with a complex biogeochemical fluxes model coupled with a one-dimensional high-resol ution hydrodynamical model and implemented at three different locations of the north- ern Adriatic shelf . One location is directly affected by Po river influence, one has more open-sea characteristics and one is located in the Gulf of Trieste with an in- termediate behavior; emphasis is put on the comparison with observations and on the functioning of the northern Adriatic ecosystem in the three areas. The work has been performed in a climatological context and has to be considered as preliminary to the development of three-dimensional numerical simulations. Biogeochemical model parameterizations have been ameliorated with a detailed description of bacterial sub- strate utilization associated to the quality of the dissolved organic matter (DOM) in order to improve model skill in capturing the observed DOM dynamics in the basin. The coupled model has been calibrated and validated at the three locations by means of climatological datasets. Results show satisfactory model behavior in simulating local seasonal dynamics in the limit of the available boundary conditions and the one-dimensional implementation. Comparisons with available in situ measurements of primary and bacterial production and bacterial abundances have been performed in all locations. Model simulated rates and bacterial dynamics are in the same order of magnitude of observations and show a qualitatively correct time evolution. The importance of temperature as a factor controlling bacteria efficiency is investigated with sensitivity experiments on the model parameterizations. The different model be- havior and pelagic ecosystem structure developed by the model at the three location can be attributed to the local hydrodynamical features and interactions with external inputs of nutrients. The onset of the winter/spring bloom in the climatological

  6. LBA-ECO LC-01 SRTM 90-Meter Digital Elevation Model, Northern Ecuadorian Amazon

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — ABSTRACT: This data set provides 90-meter resolution Digital Elevation Model data used in the University of North Carolina's Carolina Population Center (CPC) Ecuador...

  7. LBA-ECO LC-01 SRTM 90-Meter Digital Elevation Model, Northern Ecuadorian Amazon

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This data set provides 90-meter resolution Digital Elevation Model data used in the University of North Carolina's Carolina Population Center (CPC) Ecuador Projects....

  8. Northern Gulf 1 Arc-second MHW Coast Digital Elevation Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — NOAA's National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) is building high-resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) for select U.S. coastal regions in the Gulf of Mexico....

  9. PnET-BGC: Modeling Biogeochemical Processes in a Northern Hardwood Forest Ecosystem

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This archived model product contains the directions, executables, and procedures for running PnET-BGC to recreate the results of: Gbondo-Tugbawa, S.S., C.T. Driscoll...

  10. PnET-BGC: Modeling Biogeochemical Processes in a Northern Hardwood Forest Ecosystem

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — ABSTRACT: This archived model product contains the directions, executables, and procedures for running PnET-BGC to recreate the results of: Gbondo-Tugbawa, S.S.,...

  11. Northern Gulf 1 Arc-second NAVD 88 Coast Digital Elevation Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — NOAA's National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) is building high-resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) for select U.S. coastal regions in the Gulf of Mexico....

  12. 2.5D S-wave velocity model of the TESZ area in northern Poland from receiver function analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilde-Piorko, Monika; Polkowski, Marcin; Grad, Marek

    2016-04-01

    Receiver function (RF) locally provides the signature of sharp seismic discontinuities and information about the shear wave (S-wave) velocity distribution beneath the seismic station. The data recorded by "13 BB Star" broadband seismic stations (Grad et al., 2015) and by few PASSEQ broadband seismic stations (Wilde-Piórko et al., 2008) are analysed to investigate the crustal and upper mantle structure in the Trans-European Suture Zone (TESZ) in northern Poland. The TESZ is one of the most prominent suture zones in Europe separating the young Palaeozoic platform from the much older Precambrian East European craton. Compilation of over thirty deep seismic refraction and wide angle reflection profiles, vertical seismic profiling in over one hundred thousand boreholes and magnetic, gravity, magnetotelluric and thermal methods allowed for creation a high-resolution 3D P-wave velocity model down to 60 km depth in the area of Poland (Grad et al. 2016). On the other hand the receiver function methods give an opportunity for creation the S-wave velocity model. Modified ray-tracing method (Langston, 1977) are used to calculate the response of the structure with dipping interfaces to the incoming plane wave with fixed slowness and back-azimuth. 3D P-wave velocity model are interpolated to 2.5D P-wave velocity model beneath each seismic station and synthetic back-azimuthal sections of receiver function are calculated for different Vp/Vs ratio. Densities are calculated with combined formulas of Berteussen (1977) and Gardner et al. (1974). Next, the synthetic back-azimuthal sections of RF are compared with observed back-azimuthal sections of RF for "13 BB Star" and PASSEQ seismic stations to find the best 2.5D S-wave models down to 60 km depth. National Science Centre Poland provided financial support for this work by NCN grant DEC-2011/02/A/ST10/00284.

  13. Assessment and modelling of general practice and community setting capacity for medical trainees in northern New Zealand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goodyear-Smith, Felicity; Al-Murrani, Abbas

    2017-09-22

    To estimate the capacity of general practice to accommodate undergraduate and postgraduate medical trainees, and model efficient ways to utilise identified capacity and increase capacity. We conducted an online survey, with phone follow-up to non-responders, of all general practices in the northern half of New Zealand. The main outcome measures were current placements and future intentions for taking medical trainees; factors influencing decisions and possible incentives to take trainees. Sixty percent of existing practices take no medical trainees. On average, practices take trainees for 50% of available cycles per year. Postgraduate trainees displace undergraduate student placements due to space limitations. Only 1.9% practices demonstrate current capacity for full vertical training by taking all three types of trainee (undergraduate, PGY, registrar). Modelling on current use means 69 additional practices will be needed to be recruited by 2020. A number of strategies are presented aimed at increasing short-term undergraduate teaching practice capacity in New Zealand, but also relevant to Australia and elsewhere. In the long-term, establishment of the proposed School of Rural Health would enable integrated vertical teaching and address the GP training capacity issues.

  14. Modelling and Analysis of Hydrodynamics and Water Quality for Rivers in the Northern Cold Region of China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Gula; Zhu, Yunqiang; Wu, Guozheng; Li, Jing; Li, Zhao-Liang; Sun, Jiulin

    2016-04-08

    In this study, the Mudan River, which is the most typical river in the northern cold region of China was selected as the research object; Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code (EFDC) was adopted to construct a new two-dimensional water quality model for the urban sections of the Mudan River, and concentrations of COD(Cr) and NH₃N during ice-covered and open-water periods were simulated and analyzed. Results indicated that roughness coefficient and comprehensive pollutant decay rate were significantly different in those periods. To be specific, the roughness coefficient in the ice-covered period was larger than that of the open-water period, while the decay rate within the former period was smaller than that in the latter. In addition, according to the analysis of the simulated results, the main reasons for the decay rate reduction during the ice-covered period are temperature drop, upstream inflow decrease and ice layer cover; among them, ice sheet is the major contributor of roughness increase. These aspects were discussed in more detail in this work. The model could be generalized to hydrodynamic water quality process simulation researches on rivers in other cold regions as well.

  15. Modelling and Analysis of Hydrodynamics and Water Quality for Rivers in the Northern Cold Region of China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gula Tang

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available In this study, the Mudan River, which is the most typical river in the northern cold region of China was selected as the research object; Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code (EFDC was adopted to construct a new two-dimensional water quality model for the urban sections of the Mudan River, and concentrations of CODCr and NH3N during ice-covered and open-water periods were simulated and analyzed. Results indicated that roughness coefficient and comprehensive pollutant decay rate were significantly different in those periods. To be specific, the roughness coefficient in the ice-covered period was larger than that of the open-water period, while the decay rate within the former period was smaller than that in the latter. In addition, according to the analysis of the simulated results, the main reasons for the decay rate reduction during the ice-covered period are temperature drop, upstream inflow decrease and ice layer cover; among them, ice sheet is the major contributor of roughness increase. These aspects were discussed in more detail in this work. The model could be generalized to hydrodynamic water quality process simulation researches on rivers in other cold regions as well.

  16. The Application of Remotely Sensed Data and Models to Benefit Conservation and Restoration Along the Northern Gulf of Mexico Coast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quattrochi, Dale; Estes, Maurice, Jr.; Al-Hamdan, Mohammad; Thom, Ron; Woodruff, Dana; Judd, Chaeli; Ellis, Jean; Swann, Roberta; Johnson, Hoyt, III

    2010-01-01

    New data, tools, and capabilities for decision making are significant needs in the northern Gulf of Mexico and other coastal areas. The goal of this project is to support NASA s Earth Science Mission Directorate and its Applied Science Program and the Gulf of Mexico Alliance by producing and providing NASA data and products that will benefit decision making by coastal resource managers and other end users in the Gulf region. Data and research products are being developed to assist coastal resource managers adapt and plan for changing conditions by evaluating how climate changes and urban expansion will impact land cover/land use (LCLU), hydrodynamics, water properties, and shallow water habitats; to identify priority areas for conservation and restoration; and to distribute datasets to end-users and facilitating user interaction with models. The proposed host sites for data products are NOAA s National Coastal Data Development Center Regional Ecosystem Data Management, and Mississippi-Alabama Habitat Database. Tools will be available on the Gulf of Mexico Regional Collaborative website with links to data portals to enable end users to employ models and datasets to develop and evaluate LCLU and climate scenarios of particular interest. These data will benefit the Mobile Bay National Estuary Program in ongoing efforts to protect and restore the Fish River watershed and around Weeks Bay National Estuarine Research Reserve. The usefulness of data products and tools will be demonstrated at an end-user workshop.

  17. Methodology for deriving hydrogeological input parameters for safety-analysis models - application to fractured crystalline rocks of Northern Switzerland

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vomvoris, S.; Andrews, R.W.; Lanyon, G.W.; Voborny, O.; Wilson, W.

    1996-04-01

    Switzerland is one of many nations with nuclear power that is seeking to identify rock types and locations that would be suitable for the underground disposal of nuclear waste. A common challenge among these programs is to provide engineering designers and safety analysts with a reasonably representative hydrogeological input dataset that synthesizes the relevant information from direct field observations as well as inferences and model results derived from those observations. Needed are estimates of the volumetric flux through a volume of rock and the distribution of that flux into discrete pathways between the repository zones and the biosphere. These fluxes are not directly measurable but must be derived based on understandings of the range of plausible hydrogeologic conditions expected at the location investigated. The methodology described in this report utilizes conceptual and numerical models at various scales to derive the input dataset. The methodology incorporates an innovative approach, called the geometric approach, in which field observations and their associated uncertainty, together with a conceptual representation of those features that most significantly affect the groundwater flow regime, were rigorously applied to generate alternative possible realizations of hydrogeologic features in the geosphere. In this approach, the ranges in the output values directly reflect uncertainties in the input values. As a demonstration, the methodology is applied to the derivation of the hydrogeological dataset for the crystalline basement of Northern Switzerland. (author) figs., tabs., refs

  18. Dynamic modelling of atmospherically-deposited Ni, Cu, Zn, Cd and Pb in Pennine catchments (northern England)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tipping, E.; Rothwell, J.J.; Shotbolt, L.; Lawlor, A.J.

    2010-01-01

    Simulation modelling with CHUM-AM was carried out to investigate the accumulation and release of atmospherically-deposited heavy metals (Ni, Cu, Zn, Cd and Pb) in six moorland catchments, five with organic-rich soils, one with calcareous brown earths, in the Pennine chain of northern England. The model considers two soil layers and a third layer of weathering mineral matter, and operates on a yearly timestep, driven by deposition scenarios covering the period 1400-2010. The principal processes controlling heavy metals are competitive solid-solution partitioning of solutes, chemical interactions in solution, and chemical weathering. Agreement between observed and simulated soil metal pools and surface water concentrations for recent years was generally satisfactory, the results confirming that most contemporary soil metal is from atmospheric pollution. Metals in catchments with organic-rich soils show some mobility, especially under more acid conditions, but the calcareous mineral soils have retained nearly all anthropogenic metal inputs. Complexation by dissolved organic matter and co-transport accounts for up to 80% of the Cu in surface waters. - CHUM-AM is applied to six differing moorland catchments to account for the accumulation and leaching of atmospherically-deposited trace metals over the past several centuries.

  19. The Application of Remotely Sensed Data and Models to Benefit Conservation and Restoration Along the Northern Gulf of Mexico Coast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quattrochi, D. A.; Estes, M. G., Jr.; Al-Hamdan, M. Z.; Thom, R.; Woodruff, D.; Judd, C.; Ellis, J. T.; Swann, R.; Johnson, H., III

    2010-12-01

    New data, tools, and capabilities for decision making are significant needs in the northern Gulf of Mexico and other coastal areas. The goal of this project is to support NASA’s Earth Science Mission Directorate and its Applied Science Program and the Gulf of Mexico Alliance by producing and providing NASA data and products that will benefit decision making by coastal resource managers and other end users in the Gulf region. Data and research products are being developed to assist coastal resource managers adapt and plan for changing conditions by evaluating how climate changes and urban expansion will impact land cover/land use (LCLU), hydrodynamics, water properties, and shallow water habitats; to identify priority areas for conservation and restoration; and to distribute datasets to end-users and facilitating user interaction with models. The proposed host sites for data products are NOAA’s National Coastal Data Development Center Regional Ecosystem Data Management, and Mississippi-Alabama Habitat Database. Tools will be available on the Gulf of Mexico Regional Collaborative website with links to data portals to enable end users to employ models and datasets to develop and evaluate LCLU and climate scenarios of particular interest. These data will benefit the Mobile Bay National Estuary Program in ongoing efforts to protect and restore the Fish River watershed and around Weeks Bay National Estuarine Research Reserve. The usefulness of data products and tools will be demonstrated at an end-user workshop.

  20. Dynamic modelling of atmospherically-deposited Ni, Cu, Zn, Cd and Pb in Pennine catchments (northern England)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tipping, E., E-mail: et@ceh.ac.u [Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Lancaster Environment Centre, Library Avenue, Bailrigg, Lancaster LA1 4AP (United Kingdom); Rothwell, J.J. [Upland Environments Research Unit, School of Environment and Development, University of Manchester, Manchester M13 9PL (United Kingdom); Shotbolt, L. [Geography Department, Queen Mary, University of London, Mile End Road, London E1 4NS (United Kingdom); Lawlor, A.J. [Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Lancaster Environment Centre, Library Avenue, Bailrigg, Lancaster LA1 4AP (United Kingdom)

    2010-05-15

    Simulation modelling with CHUM-AM was carried out to investigate the accumulation and release of atmospherically-deposited heavy metals (Ni, Cu, Zn, Cd and Pb) in six moorland catchments, five with organic-rich soils, one with calcareous brown earths, in the Pennine chain of northern England. The model considers two soil layers and a third layer of weathering mineral matter, and operates on a yearly timestep, driven by deposition scenarios covering the period 1400-2010. The principal processes controlling heavy metals are competitive solid-solution partitioning of solutes, chemical interactions in solution, and chemical weathering. Agreement between observed and simulated soil metal pools and surface water concentrations for recent years was generally satisfactory, the results confirming that most contemporary soil metal is from atmospheric pollution. Metals in catchments with organic-rich soils show some mobility, especially under more acid conditions, but the calcareous mineral soils have retained nearly all anthropogenic metal inputs. Complexation by dissolved organic matter and co-transport accounts for up to 80% of the Cu in surface waters. - CHUM-AM is applied to six differing moorland catchments to account for the accumulation and leaching of atmospherically-deposited trace metals over the past several centuries.

  1. Examining Social Adaptations in a Volatile Landscape in Northern Mongolia via the Agent-Based Model Ger Grouper

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Julia K. Clark

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The environment of the mountain-steppe-taiga of northern Mongolia is often characterized as marginal because of the high altitude, highly variable precipitation levels, low winter temperatures, and periodic droughts coupled with severe winter storms (known as dzuds. Despite these conditions, herders have inhabited this landscape for thousands of years, and hunter-gatherer-fishers before that. One way in which the risks associated with such a challenging and variable landscape are mitigated is through social networks and inter-family cooperation. We present an agent-based simulation, Ger Grouper, to examine how households have mitigated these risks through cooperation. The Ger Grouper simulation takes into account locational decisions of households, looks at fission/fusion dynamics of households and how those relate to environmental pressures, and assesses how degrees of relatedness can influence sharing of resources during harsh winters. This model, coupled with the traditional archaeological and ethnographic methods, helps shed light on the links between early Mongolian pastoralist adaptations and the environment. While preliminary results are promising, it is hoped that further development of this model will be able to characterize changing land-use patterns as social and political networks developed.

  2. Analysis and modeling of soil slips in the Emilia Romagna Apennine (Northern Italy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montrasio, L.; Valentino, R.; Losi, G.

    2009-04-01

    On 10-11 April 2005 the Emilia Romagna Apennine was affected by an intense rainfall event that triggered dozens of soil slips in the Province of Reggio Emilia. These phenomena have been widely described in the scientific literature, referring to historical events occurred in many parts of the world. The particular danger of these phenomena is related to their speed of development, with the difficulty of foreseeing their location, but also with the high density of distribution of individual phenomena, whose downhill trajectories have a substantial probability of interfering with urbanized areas. During the event of April 2005 in the Emilia Romagna Apennine, these shallow landslides mainly occurred on slopes of cultivated lands, often provoking the interruption of roads, heavy damages to the farming activities and economic losses. On the basis of an inventory by aerial photograph interpretation, it was possible to locate 45 sites where soil slips occurred. In the present work the study area is described, considering both geological and climatic aspects. The inducing factors, which are relative to the territory morphology, and the outbreak factors of the triggering mechanism, which are relative to the rainfall conditions, are deeply analyzed. Once known geometrical features and soil characteristics of the slopes, for each site a physically based triggering model, that has recently developed by the Authors, has been applied by considering the local scale of the phenomenon. The model allows to take into account dynamically, in a simplified way, the connection between the stability condition of a slope, the characteristics of the soil and rainfall amounts, including also antecedent rainfalls. The model, in fact, is aimed to give an answer to the recent challenge represented by the dynamic use of real-time landslides early warning systems, the basis of which have to be the coupling between rainfall amounts, hydrological model and stability slope models. The triggering

  3. Development of allometric models for above and belowground biomass in swidden cultivation fallows of Northern Laos

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    McNicol, Iain M.; Berry, Nicholas J.; Bruun, Thilde Bech

    2015-01-01

    fields and patches of mature forest. Quantifying tree biomass in these landscapes is limited by the availability of reliable allometric models, hindering accurate carbon stock estimation and thus quantification of GHG emission associated with land use transitions. We therefore developed new allometric...... for each tree type. Thus, we suggest that field efforts should be directed towards checking resprouting status over the estimation of tree height. We also found that models fit using non-linear regression provided equally good fits to the data compared to the traditional approach of log......-transforming the data. Our models were subsequently applied to 12 nearby plots spanning a chronosequence of fallows to examine the impact of re-sprouting allometry on biomass estimation. Root biomass stocks were on average 58% higher after accounting for the allometry of resprouting trees, resulting in an average 9...

  4. Multistate Models Reveal Long-Term Trends of Northern Spotted Owls in the Absence of a Novel Competitor.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew J Kroll

    Full Text Available Quantifying spatial and temporal variability in population trends is a critical aspect of successful management of imperiled species. We evaluated territory occupancy dynamics of northern spotted owls (Strix occidentalis caurina, California, USA, 1990-2014. The study area possessed two unique aspects. First, timber management has occurred for over 100 years, resulting in dramatically different forest successional and structural conditions compared to other areas. Second, the barred owl (Strix varia, an exotic congener known to exert significant negative effects on spotted owls, has not colonized the study area. We used a Bayesian dynamic multistate model to evaluate if territory occupancy of reproductive spotted owls has declined as in other study areas. The state-space approach for dynamic multistate modeling imputes the number of territories for each nesting state and allows for the estimation of longer-term trends in occupied or reproductive territories from longitudinal studies. The multistate approach accounts for different detection probabilities by nesting state (to account for either inherent differences in detection or for the use of different survey methods for different occupancy states and reduces bias in state assignment. Estimated linear trends in the number of reproductive territories suggested an average loss of approximately one half territory per year (-0.55, 90% CRI: -0.76, -0.33, in one management block and a loss of 0.15 per year (-0.15, 90% CRI: -0.24, -0.07, in another management block during the 25 year observation period. Estimated trends in the third management block were also negative, but substantial uncertainty existed in the estimate (-0.09, 90% CRI: -0.35, 0.17. Our results indicate that the number of territories occupied by northern spotted owl pairs remained relatively constant over a 25 year period (-0.07, 90% CRI: -0.20, 0.05; -0.01, 90% CRI: -0.19, 0.16; -0.16, 90% CRI: -0.40, 0.06. However, we cannot exclude

  5. Multistate Models Reveal Long-Term Trends of Northern Spotted Owls in the Absence of a Novel Competitor.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kroll, Andrew J; Jones, Jay E; Stringer, Angela B; Meekins, Douglas J

    2016-01-01

    Quantifying spatial and temporal variability in population trends is a critical aspect of successful management of imperiled species. We evaluated territory occupancy dynamics of northern spotted owls (Strix occidentalis caurina), California, USA, 1990-2014. The study area possessed two unique aspects. First, timber management has occurred for over 100 years, resulting in dramatically different forest successional and structural conditions compared to other areas. Second, the barred owl (Strix varia), an exotic congener known to exert significant negative effects on spotted owls, has not colonized the study area. We used a Bayesian dynamic multistate model to evaluate if territory occupancy of reproductive spotted owls has declined as in other study areas. The state-space approach for dynamic multistate modeling imputes the number of territories for each nesting state and allows for the estimation of longer-term trends in occupied or reproductive territories from longitudinal studies. The multistate approach accounts for different detection probabilities by nesting state (to account for either inherent differences in detection or for the use of different survey methods for different occupancy states) and reduces bias in state assignment. Estimated linear trends in the number of reproductive territories suggested an average loss of approximately one half territory per year (-0.55, 90% CRI: -0.76, -0.33), in one management block and a loss of 0.15 per year (-0.15, 90% CRI: -0.24, -0.07), in another management block during the 25 year observation period. Estimated trends in the third management block were also negative, but substantial uncertainty existed in the estimate (-0.09, 90% CRI: -0.35, 0.17). Our results indicate that the number of territories occupied by northern spotted owl pairs remained relatively constant over a 25 year period (-0.07, 90% CRI: -0.20, 0.05; -0.01, 90% CRI: -0.19, 0.16; -0.16, 90% CRI: -0.40, 0.06). However, we cannot exclude small

  6. Investigating the Role of Biogeochemical Processes in the Northern High Latitudes on Global Climate Feedbacks Using an Efficient Scalable Earth System Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jain, Atul K. [Univ. of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign, IL (United States)

    2016-09-14

    The overall objectives of this DOE funded project is to combine scientific and computational challenges in climate modeling by expanding our understanding of the biogeophysical-biogeochemical processes and their interactions in the northern high latitudes (NHLs) using an earth system modeling (ESM) approach, and by adopting an adaptive parallel runtime system in an ESM to achieve efficient and scalable climate simulations through improved load balancing algorithms.

  7. Comparison of the results of different scale hydrogeological models on a terraced slope of Valtellina (Northern Italy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Camera, C.; Apuani, T.; Masetti, M.; Mele, M.

    2012-04-01

    The aim of this work was to understand and reproduce the hydrological dynamics of a slope that is terraced by dry-stone retaining walls. At first, the processes of interest were analyzed with a classical 2D unsaturated-saturated finite elements analysis, reproducing the geometry of a single terrace. In a second moment, a raster analysis at the slope scale was performed. The studied slope is located in Valtellina (Northern Italy), near the village of Tresenda, and in the last 30 years it experienced several soil slip/debris flow events that in 1983 caused 18 victims. Direct observation of the events of 1983 permitted to recognize the principal triggering cause of these events in the formation of an overpressure at the base of a dry-stone wall, that caused its failure. Using field tests and monitoring activity as input and calibration data respectively, the 2D model is able to explain the mechanisms of rainfall infiltration that can lead to the formation and evolution of a perched groundwater table at the contact between the bedrock and the walls backfill soil. Once calibrated and validated the model has been used to investigate the influence of different parameters on the studied processes, such as walls height, bedrock slope angle, and changes of both isotropic and anisotropic saturated hydraulic conductivity of soil and wall. From this sensitivity analysis, one of the most interesting results is the ability of the model to well differentiate the behaviour of a well maintained wall with an higher hydraulic conductivity than soil, from a poorly maintained wall that has lost part of its drainage capacity. In fact, only in this latter circumstance significant pore-water pressures can form at the base of the retaining structure. Moving the problem to the slope scale, although the used raster-model takes into account both the unsaturated and saturated components of flux as the 2D model, it is less precise in the description of the processes involved in the formation of

  8. Fuel load modeling from mensuration attributes in temperate forests in northern Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maricela Morales-Soto; Marín Pompa-Garcia

    2013-01-01

    The study of fuels is an important factor in defining the vulnerability of ecosystems to forest fires. The aim of this study was to model a dead fuel load based on forest mensuration attributes from forest management inventories. A scatter plot analysis was performed and, from explanatory trends between the variables considered, correlation analysis was carried out...

  9. Fuel treatment effects on modeled landscape level fire behavior in the northern Sierra Nevada

    Science.gov (United States)

    J.J. Moghaddas; B.M. Collins; K. Menning; E.E.Y. Moghaddas; S.L. Stephens

    2010-01-01

    Across the western United States, decades of fire exclusion combined with past management history have contributed to the current condition of extensive areas of high-density, shade-tolerant coniferous stands that are increasingly prone to high-severity fires. Here, we report the modeled effects of constructed defensible fuel profile zones and group selection...

  10. Citizen Science and Open Data: a Model for Invasive Alien Plant Species in Kenya's Northern Rangelands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amirazodi, S.; Griffin, R.; Flores Cordova, A. I.; Ouko, E.; Omondi, S.; Mugo, R. M.; Farah, H.; Flores Cordova, A. I.; Adams, E. C.

    2017-12-01

    Invasive species in African savannas pose great threat to the native biodiversity and changes ecosystem functioning. In the forest sector, for instance Acacia species are important sources of fuel-wood, yet at the same time they have increased strain on water resources and shrunken forage spaces for both livestock and wildlife. In recently infested regions, invasive species can progress through the stages of introduction, establishment and dispersal to a full range. Currently there is much worldwide interest in predicting distributions of invasive species, and several organizations are faced with questions of whether and how to tackle such environmental challenges, or how to interpret predictions from the science community. Conservation practioners require mapped estimates of where species could persist in a given region, and this is associated to information about the biotope - i.e. the geographic location of the species' niche. The process of collecting species distribution data for identifying the potential distribution of the invasive species in the invaded ranges has become a challenge both in terms of resource and time allocation. This study highlights innovative approaches in crowdsourcing validation data in mapping and modelling invasive species (Acacia reficiens and Cactus) through involvement of the local communities. The general approach was to model the distribution of A. reficiens and Cactus (Opuntia Spp) using occurrence records from native range, then project the model into new regions to assess susceptibility to invasion using climatic and topographic environmental variables. The models performed better than random prediction (P 0.75.

  11. Comparisons of measured and modelled ozone deposition to forests in northern Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Touvinen, J. P.; Simpson, D.; Mikkelsen, Teis Nørgaard

    2001-01-01

    The performance of a new dry deposition module, developedfor the European-scale mapping and modelling of ozone flux to vegetation, was tested against micrometeorological ozone and water vapour flux measurements. The measurement data are for twoconiferous (Scots pine in Finland, Norway spruce...

  12. Modeling Culex tarsalis abundance on the northern Colorado front range using a landscape-level approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schurich, Jessica A; Kumar, Sunil; Eisen, Lars; Moore, Chester G

    2014-03-01

    Remote sensing and Geographic Information System (GIS) data can be used to identify larval mosquito habitats and predict species distribution and abundance across a landscape. An understanding of the landscape features that impact abundance and dispersal can then be applied operationally in mosquito control efforts to reduce the transmission of mosquito-borne pathogens. In an effort to better understand the effects of landscape heterogeneity on the abundance of the West Nile virus (WNV) vector Culex tarsalis, we determined associations between GIS-based environmental data at multiple spatial extents and monthly abundance of adult Cx. tarsalis in Larimer County and Weld County, CO. Mosquito data were collected from Centers for Disease Control and Prevention miniature light traps operated as part of local WNV surveillance efforts. Multiple regression models were developed for prediction of monthly Cx. tarsalis abundance for June, July, and August using 4 years of data collected over 2007-10. The models explained monthly adult mosquito abundance with accuracies ranging from 51-61% in Fort Collins and 57-88% in Loveland-Johnstown. Models derived using landscape-level predictors indicated that adult Cx. tarsalis abundance is negatively correlated with elevation. In this case, low-elevation areas likely more abundantly include habitats for Cx. tarsalis. Model output indicated that the perimeter of larval sites is a significant predictor of Cx. tarsalis abundance at a spatial extent of 500 m in Loveland-Johnstown in all months examined. The contribution of irrigated crops at a spatial extent of 500 m improved model fit in August in both Fort Collins and Loveland-Johnstown. These results emphasize the significance of irrigation and the manual control of water across the landscape to provide viable larval habitats for Cx. tarsalis in the study area. Results from multiple regression models can be applied operationally to identify areas of larval Cx. tarsalis production

  13. Structural model of the Northern Latium volcanic area constrained by MT, gravity and aeromagnetic data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Gasparini

    1997-06-01

    Full Text Available The results of about 120 magnetotelluric soundings carried out in the Vulsini, Vico and Sabatini volcanic areas were modeled along with Bouguer and aeromagnetic anomalies to reconstruct a model of the structure of the shallow (less than 5 km of depth crust. The interpretations were constrained by the information gathered from the deep boreholes drilled for geothermal exploration. MT and aeromagnetic anomalies allow the depth to the top of the sedimentary basement and the thickness of the volcanic layer to be inferred. Gravity anomalies are strongly affected by the variations of morphology of the top of the sedimentary basement, consisting of a Tertiary flysch, and of the interface with the underlying Mesozoic carbonates. Gravity data have also been used to extrapolate the thickness of the neogenic unit indicated by some boreholes. There is no evidence for other important density and susceptibility heterogeneities and deeper sources of magnetic and/or gravity anomalies in all the surveyed area.

  14. Modelling approach for the rainfall erosivity index in sub-humid urban areas in northern Algeria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Touaibia, I.; Abderrahmane Guenim, N.; Touaibia, B.

    2014-09-01

    This work presents an approach for storm water erosivity index modelling in the absence of measurement in an urban area, in a sub-humid climate. In torrential storms, floods, loaded with sediments, obstruct storm water drainage. With the aim of estimating the amount of sediment that can be deposited on a stretch of road, adjacent to the study area, the erosivity index is determined from a count of 744 rain showers recorded over a period of 19 years. The Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) of Wischmeier and Smith is applied, where only the index of erosivity is calculated; it is based on the intensity of the rain starting the process of erosion in the basin. Functional relations are required between this factor and the explanatory variables. A power type regression model is reached, making it possible to bring a decision-making aid in absences of measurements.

  15. Modelling approach for the rainfall erosivity index in sub-humid urban areas in northern Algeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. Touaibia

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available This work presents an approach for storm water erosivity index modelling in the absence of measurement in an urban area, in a sub-humid climate. In torrential storms, floods, loaded with sediments, obstruct storm water drainage. With the aim of estimating the amount of sediment that can be deposited on a stretch of road, adjacent to the study area, the erosivity index is determined from a count of 744 rain showers recorded over a period of 19 years. The Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE of Wischmeier and Smith is applied, where only the index of erosivity is calculated; it is based on the intensity of the rain starting the process of erosion in the basin. Functional relations are required between this factor and the explanatory variables. A power type regression model is reached, making it possible to bring a decision-making aid in absences of measurements.

  16. Estimation Model of Soil Freeze-Thaw Erosion in Silingco Watershed Wetland of Northern Tibet

    OpenAIRE

    Kong, Bo; Yu, Huan

    2013-01-01

    The freeze-thaw (FT) erosion is a type of soil erosion like water erosion and wind erosion. Limited by many factors, the grading evaluation of soil FT erosion quantities is not well studied. Based on the comprehensive analysis of the evaluation indices of soil FT erosion, we for the first time utilized the sensitivity of microwave remote sensing technology to soil moisture for identification of FT state. We established an estimation model suitable to evaluate the soil FT erosion quantity in S...

  17. Northern emporia and maritime networks. Modelling past communication using archaeological network analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sindbæk, Søren Michael

    2015-01-01

    preserve patterns of thisinteraction. Formal network analysis and modelling holds the potential to identify anddemonstrate such patterns, where traditional methods often prove inadequate. Thearchaeological study of communication networks in the past, however, calls for radically different analytical...... this is not a problem of network analysis, but network synthesis: theclassic problem of cracking codes or reconstructing black-box circuits. It is proposedthat archaeological approaches to network synthesis must involve a contextualreading of network data: observations arising from individual contexts, morphologies...

  18. Model estimation of land-use effects on water levels of northern Prairie wetlands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voldseth, R.A.; Johnson, W.C.; Gilmanov, T.; Guntenspergen, G.R.; Millett, B.V.

    2007-01-01

    Wetlands of the Prairie Pothole Region exist in a matrix of grassland dominated by intensive pastoral and cultivation agriculture. Recent conservation management has emphasized the conversion of cultivated farmland and degraded pastures to intact grassland to improve upland nesting habitat. The consequences of changes in land-use cover that alter watershed processes have not been evaluated relative to their effect on the water budgets and vegetation dynamics of associated wetlands. We simulated the effect of upland agricultural practices on the water budget and vegetation of a semipermanent prairie wetland by modifying a previously published mathematical model (WETSIM). Watershed cover/land-use practices were categorized as unmanaged grassland (native grass, smooth brome), managed grassland (moderately heavily grazed, prescribed burned), cultivated crops (row crop, small grain), and alfalfa hayland. Model simulations showed that differing rates of evapotranspiration and runoff associated with different upland plant-cover categories in the surrounding catchment produced differences in wetland water budgets and linked ecological dynamics. Wetland water levels were highest and vegetation the most dynamic under the managed-grassland simulations, while water levels were the lowest and vegetation the least dynamic under the unmanaged-grassland simulations. The modeling results suggest that unmanaged grassland, often planted for waterfowl nesting, may produce the least favorable wetland conditions for birds, especially in drier regions of the Prairie Pothole Region. These results stand as hypotheses that urgently need to be verified with empirical data.

  19. Geophysical constraints on Rio Grande rift structure and stratigraphy from magnetotelluric models and borehole resistivity logs, northern New Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriguez, Brian D.; Sawyer, David A.; Hudson, Mark R.; Grauch, V.J.S.

    2013-01-01

    Two- and three-dimensional electrical resistivity models derived from the magnetotelluric method were interpreted to provide more accurate hydrogeologic parameters for the Albuquerque and Española Basins. Analysis and interpretation of the resistivity models are aided by regional borehole resistivity data. Examination of the magnetotelluric response of hypothetical stratigraphic cases using resistivity characterizations from the borehole data elucidates two scenarios where the magnetotelluric method provides the strongest constraints. In the first scenario, the magnetotelluric method constrains the thickness of extensive volcanic cover, the underlying thickness of coarser-grained facies of buried Santa Fe Group sediments, and the depth to Precambrian basement or overlying Pennsylvanian limestones. In the second scenario, in the absence of volcanic cover, the magnetotelluric method constrains the thickness of coarser-grained facies of buried Santa Fe Group sediments and the depth to Precambrian basement or overlying Pennsylvanian limestones. Magnetotelluric surveys provide additional constraints on the relative positions of basement rocks and the thicknesses of Paleozoic, Mesozoic, and Tertiary sedimentary rocks in the region of the Albuquerque and Española Basins. The northern extent of a basement high beneath the Cerros del Rio volcanic field is delineated. Our results also reveal that the largest offset of the Hubbell Spring fault zone is located 5 km west of the exposed scarp. By correlating our resistivity models with surface geology and the deeper stratigraphic horizons using deep well log data, we are able to identify which of the resistivity variations in the upper 2 km belong to the upper Santa Fe Group sediment

  20. Mesoscale Modeling of Smoke Particles Distribution and Their Radiative Feedback over Northern Sub-Saharan African Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yue, Y.; Wang, J.; Ichoku, C. M.; Ellison, L.

    2015-12-01

    Stretching from southern boundary of Sahara to the equator and expanding west to east from Atlantic Ocean coasts to the India Ocean coasts, the northern sub-Saharan African (NSSA) region has been subject to intense biomass burning. Comprised of savanna, shrub, tropical forest and a number of agricultural crops, the extensive fires burn belt covers central and south of NSSA during dry season (from October to March) contributes to one of the highest biomass burning rate per km2 in the world. Due to smoke particles' absorption effects of solar radiation, they can modify the surface and atmosphere temperature and thus change atmospheric stability, height of the boundary layer, regional atmospheric circulation, evaporation rate, cloud formation, and precipitation. Hence, smoke particles emitted from biomass burning over NSSA region has a significant influence to the air quality, weather and climate variability. In this study, the first version of this Fire Energetics and Emissions Research (FEER.v1) emissions of several smoke constituents including light-absorbing organic carbon (OC) and black carbon (BC) are applied to a state-of-science meteorology-chemistry model as NOAA Weather Research and Forecasting Model with Chemistry (WRF-Chem). We analyzed WRF-Chem simulations of surface and vertical distribution of various pollutants and their direct radiative effects in conjunction with satellite observation data from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Cloud-Aerosol Lidar data with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIPSO) to strengthen the importance of combining space measured emission products like FEER.v1 emission inventory with mesoscale model over intense biomass burning region, especially in area where ground-based air-quality and radiation-related observations are limited or absent.

  1. Shallow Crustal Structure in the Northern Salton Trough, California: Insights from a Detailed 3-D Velocity Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ajala, R.; Persaud, P.; Stock, J. M.; Fuis, G. S.; Hole, J. A.; Goldman, M.; Scheirer, D. S.

    2017-12-01

    The Coachella Valley is the northern extent of the Gulf of California-Salton Trough. It contains the southernmost segment of the San Andreas Fault (SAF) for which a magnitude 7.8 earthquake rupture was modeled to help produce earthquake planning scenarios. However, discrepancies in ground motion and travel-time estimates from the current Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) velocity model of the Salton Trough highlight inaccuracies in its shallow velocity structure. An improved 3-D velocity model that better defines the shallow basin structure and enables the more accurate location of earthquakes and identification of faults is therefore essential for seismic hazard studies in this area. We used recordings of 126 explosive shots from the 2011 Salton Seismic Imaging Project (SSIP) to SSIP receivers and Southern California Seismic Network (SCSN) stations. A set of 48,105 P-wave travel time picks constituted the highest-quality input to a 3-D tomographic velocity inversion. To improve the ray coverage, we added network-determined first arrivals at SCSN stations from 39,998 recently relocated local earthquakes, selected to a maximum focal depth of 10 km, to develop a detailed 3-D P-wave velocity model for the Coachella Valley with 1-km grid spacing. Our velocity model shows good resolution ( 50 rays/cubic km) down to a minimum depth of 7 km. Depth slices from the velocity model reveal several interesting features. At shallow depths ( 3 km), we observe an elongated trough of low velocity, attributed to sediments, located subparallel to and a few km SW of the SAF, and a general velocity structure that mimics the surface geology of the area. The persistence of the low-velocity sediments to 5-km depth just north of the Salton Sea suggests that the underlying basement surface, shallower to the NW, dips SE, consistent with interpretation from gravity studies (Langenheim et al., 2005). On the western side of the Coachella Valley, we detect depth-restricted regions of

  2. Population parameters and dynamic pool models of commercial fishes in the Beibu Gulf, northern South China Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xuehui; Qiu, Yongsong; Du, Feiyan; Lin, Zhaojin; Sun, Dianrong; Huang, Shuolin

    2012-01-01

    Length-frequency data of eight commercial fish species in the Beibu Gulf (Golf of Tonkin), northern South China Sea, were collected during 2006-2007. Length-weight relationships and growth and mortality parameters were analyzed using FiSAT II software. Five species had isometric growth, two species had negative allometric growth, and one species had positive allometric growth. Overall, the exploitation rates of the eight species were lower in 2006-2007 than in 1997-1999: for four species ( Saurida tumbil, Saurida undosquamis, Argyrosomus macrocephalus, and Nemipterus virgatus) it was lower in 2006-2007 than in 1997-1999, for two species ( Parargyrops edita and Trichiurus haumela) it remained the same, and for the other two species ( Trachurus japonicus and Decapterus maruadsi) it was higher in 2006-2007 than in 1997-1999. The exploitation rates might have declined because of the decline in fishing intensity caused by high crude oil prices. The optimum exploitation rate, estimated using Beverton-Holt dynamic pool models, indicated that although fishes in the Beibu Gulf could sustain high exploitation rates, the under-size fishes at first capture resulted in low yields. To increase the yield per recruitment, it is more effective to increase the size at first capture than to control fishing effort.

  3. Rifting in heterogeneous lithosphere inferences from numerical modeling of the northern North Sea and the Oslo Graben.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pascal Candas, C.; Cloetingh, S.A.P.L.

    2002-01-01

    Permian rifting and magmatism are widely documented across NW Europe. The different Permian basins often display contrasting structural styles and evolved in lithospheric domains with contrasting past evolution and contrasting thermotectonic ages. In particular, the Oslo Graben and the northern

  4. A GPS and modelling study of deformation in northern Central America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriguez, M.; DeMets, C.; Rogers, R.; Tenorio, C.; Hernandez, D.

    2009-09-01

    We use GPS measurements at 37 stations in Honduras and El Salvador to describe active deformation of the western end of the Caribbean Plate between the Motagua fault and Central American volcanic arc. All GPS sites located in eastern Honduras move with the Caribbean Plate, in accord with geologic evidence for an absence of neotectonic deformation in this region. Relative to the Caribbean Plate, the other stations in the study area move west to west-northwest at rates that increase gradually from 3.3 +/- 0.6 mm yr-1 in central Honduras to 4.1 +/- 0.6 mm yr-1 in western Honduras to as high as 11-12 mm yr-1 in southern Guatemala. The site motions are consistent with slow westward extension that has been inferred by previous authors from the north-striking grabens and earthquake focal mechanisms in this region. We examine the factors that influence the regional deformation by comparing the new GPS velocity field to velocity fields predicted by finite element models (FEMs) that incorporate the regional plate boundary faults and known plate motions. Our modelling suggests that the obliquely convergent (~20°) direction of Caribbean-North American Plate motion relative to the Motagua fault west of 90°W impedes the ENE-directed motion of the Caribbean Plate in southern Guatemala, giving rise to extension in southern Guatemala and western Honduras. The FEM predictions agree even better with the measured velocities if the plate motion west of the Central American volcanic arc is forced to occur over a broad zone rather than along a single throughgoing plate boundary fault. Our analysis confirms key predictions of a previous numerical model for deformation in this region, and also indicates that the curvature of the Motagua fault causes significant along-strike changes in the orientations of the principal strain-rate axes in the fault borderlands, in accord with earthquake focal mechanisms and conclusions reached in a recent synthesis of the structural and morphologic data

  5. Thermal processes of thermokarst lakes in the continuous permafrost zone of northern Siberia - observations and modeling (Lena River Delta, Siberia)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boike, J.; Georgi, C.; Kirilin, G.; Muster, S.; Abramova, K.; Fedorova, I.; Chetverova, A.; Grigoriev, M.; Bornemann, N.; Langer, M.

    2015-10-01

    Thermokarst lakes are typical features of the northern permafrost ecosystems, and play an important role in the thermal exchange between atmosphere and subsurface. The objective of this study is to describe the main thermal processes of the lakes and to quantify the heat exchange with the underlying sediments. The thermal regimes of five lakes located within the continuous permafrost zone of northern Siberia (Lena River Delta) were investigated using hourly water temperature and water level records covering a 3-year period (2009-2012), together with bathymetric survey data. The lakes included thermokarst lakes located on Holocene river terraces that may be connected to Lena River water during spring flooding, and a thermokarst lake located on deposits of the Pleistocene Ice Complex. Lakes were covered by ice up to 2 m thick that persisted for more than 7 months of the year, from October until about mid-June. Lake-bottom temperatures increased at the start of the ice-covered period due to upward-directed heat flux from the underlying thawed sediment. Prior to ice break-up, solar radiation effectively warmed the water beneath the ice cover and induced convective mixing. Ice break-up started at the beginning of June and lasted until the middle or end of June. Mixing occurred within the entire water column from the start of ice break-up and continued during the ice-free periods, as confirmed by the Wedderburn numbers, a quantitative measure of the balance between wind mixing and stratification that is important for describing the biogeochemical cycles of lakes. The lake thermal regime was modeled numerically using the FLake model. The model demonstrated good agreement with observations with regard to the mean lake temperature, with a good reproduction of the summer stratification during the ice-free period, but poor agreement during the ice-covered period. Modeled sensitivity to lake depth demonstrated that lakes in this climatic zone with mean depths > 5 m develop

  6. MAPPING OF THE RUSSIAN NORTHERN SEAS BOTTOM RELIEF USING DIGITAL ELEVATION MODELS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. M. Koshel

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The task of the project is the design of the digital elevation models (DEM of the bottoms of Barents Sea, Pechora Sea, and the White Sea. Accuracy (resolution of DEMs allows for adequate delineation of morphological structures and peculiarities of the sea bottoms and the design of bathymetrical and derivative maps. DEMs of the sea bottom were compiled using data from navigation charts of different scales, where additional isobaths were drawn manually taking into account the classification features of the bottom topography forms. Next procedures were carried out: scanning of these charts, processing of scanned images, isobaths vectorization and creation of attribute tables, vector layers transformation to geographical coordinates as well editing, merging and joining of the map sheets, correction of geometry and attributes. For generation of digital model of bottom topography it is important to choose algorithm which allows for representation all of the sea bottom features expressed by isobaths in most details. The original algorithm based on fast calculation of distances to the two different nearest isobaths was used. Interpretation of isolines as vector linear objects is the main peculiarity of this algorithm. The resulted DEMs were used to design bathymetrical maps of Barents Sea of 1:2 500 000 scale, Pechora Sea of 1:1 000 000 scale, and White Sea of 1:750 000 scale. Different derivative maps were compiled based on DEM of the White Sea.

  7. Evaluation of evapotranspiration methods for model validation in a semi-arid watershed in northern China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Schneider

    2007-05-01

    Full Text Available This study evaluates the performance of four evapotranspiration methods (Priestley-Taylor, Penman-Monteith, Hargreaves and Makkink of differing complexity in a semi-arid environment in north China. The results are compared to observed water vapour fluxes derived from eddy flux measurements. The analysis became necessary after discharge simulations using an automatically calibrated version of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT failed to reproduce runoff measurements. Although the study area receives most of the annual rainfall during the vegetation period, high temperatures can cause water scarcity. We investigate which evapotranspiration method is most suitable for this environment and whether the model performance of SWAT can be improved with the most adequate evapotranspiration method.

    The evapotranspiration models were tested in two consecutive years with different rainfall amounts. In general, the simple Hargreaves and Makkink equations outmatch the more complex Priestley-Taylor and Penman-Monteith methods, although their performance depended on water availability. Effects on the quality of SWAT runoff simulations, however, remained minor. Although evapotranspiration is an important process in the hydrology of this steppe environment, our analysis indicates that other driving factors still need to be identified to improve SWAT simulations.

  8. Distributed modelling of climate change impacts on snow sublimation in Northern Mongolia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Menzel

    2009-08-01

    Full Text Available Sublimation of snow is an important factor of the hydrological cycle in Mongolia and is likely to increase according to future climate projections. In this study the hydrological model TRAIN was used to assess spatially distributed current and future sublimation rates based on interpolated daily data of precipitation, air temperature, air humidity, wind speed and solar radiation. An automated procedure for the interpolation of the input data is provided. Depending on the meteorological parameter and the data availability for the individual days, the most appropriate interpolation method is chosen automatically from inverse distance weighting, Ordinary Least Squares interpolation, Ordinary or Universal Kriging. Depending on elevation simulated annual sublimation in the period 1986–2006 was 23 to 35 mm, i.e. approximately 80% of total snowfall. Moreover, future climate projections for 2071–2100 of ECHAM5 and HadCM3, based on the A1B emission scenario of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, were analysed with TRAIN. In the case of ECHAM5 simulated sublimation increases by up to 17% (26...41 mm while it remains at the same level for HadCM3 (24...34 mm. The differences are mainly due to a distinct increase in winter precipitation for ECHAM5. Simulated changes of the all-season hydrological conditions, e.g. the sublimation-to-precipitation ratio, were ambiguous due to diverse precipitation patterns derived by the global circulation models.

  9. Numerical modelling of the M2 tide on the northern Patagonian Shelf

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glorioso, P. D.; Simpson, J. H.

    1994-02-01

    The previously reported occurrence of tidal fronts on the Patagonian Shelf ( CARRETOet al., 1986 , Journal of Plankton Research, 8, 15-28; GLORIOSO, 1987 , Continental Shelf Research, 7, 27-34), motivated the application of a numerical model to solve the shallow-water equations with external forcing by the principal-lunar semidiurnal tide (M2) prescribed along the open boundary. The mean width of the Patagonian Shelf is comparable with a quarter wavelength of the semidiurnal tide, giving the conditions for standing wave resonance at that frequency ( WEBB, 1975 , Deep-Sea Research, 23, 1-15). The region is well recognized by its large tidal elevations and by the speed of the tidal wave changing phase very rapidly. Some of the results obtained from the modelling exercise include the mapping of the M2 tidal constants, the Simpson-Hunter stratification parameter, the mean sea surface elevation, and the distribution of tidal energy dissipation by bottom friction. These results agree qualitatively with the ship data available and with satellite infrared imagery.

  10. A model for the design and evaluation of energy efficient northern housing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Semple, B. [Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp., Ottawa, ON (Canada); Dragnea, M. [Nunavut Housing Corp., Iqaluit, NU (Canada)

    2007-07-01

    The Nunavut Housing Corporation (NHC) is responsible for improving the housing and living conditions in communities throughout Nunavut. In response to the current housing shortage, NHC recently initiated a joint project with Canada Mortgage and Housing (CMHC) to develop a sustainable solution to housing in the Arctic. The result was a new energy efficient row house design called the NHC 5-Plex which has become a model for a culturally responsible housing design that meets the needs of Inuit families. This paper presented the design and development process undertaken for this project. It also described how the integration of new construction materials and products designed for cold climates, strategic project management, and cooperation between the NHC and CMHC were used to address the goals of energy efficiency and affordability for Arctic housing. Energy conservation calculations were presented along with the comparative and cost analysis used for the project. The energy modelling of the building performance was undertaken through a technical and design review of windows and insulating materials for energy efficiency, flame ratings, combustibility, sound transmission and water permeability. The heating and ventilation strategies were also evaluated in an effort to address issues of indoor air quality. It was concluded that in order to address the challenge of rising energy costs, the R value in the NHC 5-plex should be increased and the energy savings should be monitored. 3 refs., 6 figs.

  11. Evaluation of a regional mineral dust model over Northern Africa, Southern Europe and Middle East with AERONET data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Basart, S.; Pérez, C.; Cuevas, E.; Baldasano, J. M.

    2009-04-01

    A variety of regional and global models of the dust aerosol cycle have been developed since early 1990s. Dust models are essential to complement dust-related observations, understand the dust processes and predict the impact of dust on surface level PM concentrations. Dust generation and the parameterization of its deposition processes shows a high variability on spatial and temporal scales. It responds, in a non-linear way, to a variety of environmental factors, such as soil moisture content, the type of surface cover or surface atmospheric turbulence. Thus the modelling of this very complex process is a challenge. DREAM (Dust Regional Atmospheric Model; Nickovic et al., 2001) provides operational dust forecasts for Northern Africa, Europe and Middle East, as well as for the East-Asia regions. DREAM is operated and further developed in the Barcelona Supercomputing Center. DREAM is fully inserted as one of the governing equations in the NCEP/Eta atmospheric model and simulates all major processes of the atmospheric dust cycle. In order to implement new model versions for operational applications there is a need for extensive checking and validation against real observations. The present study focuses on the evaluation of forecasting capacity of the new version of DREAM by means of a model-to-observation comparison of the Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) over Northern Africa, Southern Europe and Middle East for one year. The model provides 72h forecasts initialized at 12UTC of each day with outputs every 1 hour at horizontal resolution of about 1/3° and 24 z-vertical layers in the troposphere. Comparisons against 47 selected AERONET sites are used. Eight size bins between 0.1 and 10 µm are considered, and dust-radiation interactions are included (Pérez et al., 2006). Wet deposition scheme has been also improved. The simulation has been performed over one year (2004); statistics and time series for the model outputs and AERONET data are used to evaluate the ability of

  12. Modelling atmospheric transport of persistent organic pollutants in the Northern Hemisphere with a 3-D dynamical model: DEHM-POP

    OpenAIRE

    Hansen , K. M.; Christensen , J. H.; Brandt , J.; Frohn , L. M.; Geels , C.

    2004-01-01

    International audience; The Danish Eulerian Hemispheric Model (DEHM) is a 3-D dynamical atmospheric transport model originally developed to describe the atmospheric transport of sulphur into the Arctic. A new version of the model, DEHM-POP, developed to study the atmospheric transport and environmental fate of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) is presented. During environmental cycling, POPs can be deposited and re-emitted several times before reaching a final destination. A description of...

  13. A regional climate model for northern Europe: model description and results from the downscaling of two GCM control simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rummukainen, M.; Räisänen, J.; Bringfelt, B.; Ullerstig, A.; Omstedt, A.; Willén, U.; Hansson, U.; Jones, C.

    This work presents a regional climate model, the Rossby Centre regional Atmospheric model (RCA1), recently developed from the High Resolution Limited Area Model (HIRLAM). The changes in the HIRLAM parametrizations, necessary for climate-length integrations, are described. A regional Baltic Sea ocean model and a modeling system for the Nordic inland lake systems have been coupled with RCA1. The coupled system has been used to downscale 10-year time slices from two different general circulation model (GCM) simulations to provide high-resolution regional interpretation of large-scale modeling. A selection of the results from the control runs, i.e. the present-day climate simulations, are presented: large-scale free atmospheric fields, the surface temperature and precipitation results and results for the on-line simulated regional ocean and lake surface climates. The regional model modifies the surface climate description compared to the GCM simulations, but it is also substantially affected by the biases in the GCM simulations. The regional model also improves the representation of the regional ocean and the inland lakes, compared to the GCM results.

  14. A regional climate model for northern Europe: model description and results from the downscaling of two GCM control simulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rummukainen, M.; Raeisaenen, J.; Bringfelt, B.; Ullerstig, A.; Omstedt, A.; Willen, U.; Hansson, U.; Jones, C. [Rossby Centre, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Inst., Norrkoeping (Sweden)

    2001-03-01

    This work presents a regional climate model, the Rossby Centre regional Atmospheric model (RCA1), recently developed from the High Resolution Limited Area Model (HIRLAM). The changes in the HIRLAM parametrizations, necessary for climate-length integrations, are described. A regional Baltic Sea ocean model and a modeling system for the Nordic inland lake systems have been coupled with RCA1. The coupled system has been used to downscale 10-year time slices from two different general circulation model (GCM) simulations to provide high-resolution regional interpretation of large-scale modeling. A selection of the results from the control runs, i.e. the present-day climate simulations, are presented: large-scale free atmospheric fields, the surface temperature and precipitation results and results for the on-line simulated regional ocean and lake surface climates. The regional model modifies the surface climate description compared to the GCM simulations, but it is also substantially affected by the biases in the GCM simulations. The regional model also improves the representation of the regional ocean and the inland lakes, compared to the GCM results. (orig.)

  15. Estimating surface pCO2 in the northern Gulf of Mexico: Which remote sensing model to use?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Shuangling; Hu, Chuanmin; Cai, Wei-Jun; Yang, Bo

    2017-12-01

    Various approaches and models have been proposed to remotely estimate surface pCO2 in the ocean, with variable performance as they were designed for different environments. Among these, a recently developed mechanistic semi-analytical approach (MeSAA) has shown its advantage for its explicit inclusion of physical and biological forcing in the model, yet its general applicability is unknown. Here, with extensive in situ measurements of surface pCO2, the MeSAA, originally developed for the summertime East China Sea, was tested in the northern Gulf of Mexico (GOM) where river plumes dominate water's biogeochemical properties during summer. Specifically, the MeSAA-predicted surface pCO2 was estimated by combining the dominating effects of thermodynamics, river-ocean mixing and biological activities on surface pCO2. Firstly, effects of thermodynamics and river-ocean mixing (pCO2@Hmixing) were estimated with a two-endmember mixing model, assuming conservative mixing. Secondly, pCO2 variations caused by biological activities (ΔpCO2@bio) was determined through an empirical relationship between sea surface temperature (SST)-normalized pCO2 and MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) 8-day composite chlorophyll concentration (CHL). The MeSAA-modeled pCO2 (sum of pCO2@Hmixing and ΔpCO2@bio) was compared with the field-measured pCO2. The Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) was 22.94 μatm (5.91%), with coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.25, mean bias (MB) of - 0.23 μatm and mean ratio (MR) of 1.001, for pCO2 ranging between 316 and 452 μatm. To improve the model performance, a locally tuned MeSAA was developed through the use of a locally tuned ΔpCO2@bio term. A multi-variate empirical regression model was also developed using the same dataset. Both the locally tuned MeSAA and the regression models showed improved performance comparing to the original MeSAA, with R2 of 0.78 and 0.84, RMSE of 12.36 μatm (3.14%) and 10.66 μatm (2.68%), MB of 0.00 μatm and - 0

  16. Modelling atmospheric transport of α-hexachlorocyclohexane in the Northern Hemispherewith a 3-D dynamical model: DEHM-POP

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. M. Hansen

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available The Danish Eulerian Hemispheric Model (DEHM is a 3-D dynamical atmospheric transport model originally developed to describe the atmospheric transport of sulphur into the Arctic. A new version of the model, DEHM-POP, developed to study the atmospheric transport and environmental fate of persistent organic pollutants (POPs is presented. During environmental cycling, POPs can be deposited and re-emitted several times before reaching a final destination. A description of the exchange processes between the land/ocean surfaces and the atmosphere is included in the model to account for this multi-hop transport. The α-isomer of the pesticide hexachlorocyclohexane (α-HCH is used as tracer in the model development. The structure of the model and processes included are described in detail. The results from a model simulation showing the atmospheric transport for the years 1991 to 1998 are presented and evaluated against measurements. The annual averaged atmospheric concentration of α-HCH for the 1990s is well described by the model; however, the shorter-term average concentration for most of the stations is not well captured. This indicates that the present simple surface description needs to be refined to get a better description of the air-surface exchange processes of POPs.

  17. Modelling atmospheric transport of α-hexachlorocyclohexane in the Northern Hemispherewith a 3-D dynamical model: DEHM-POP

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, K. M.; Christensen, J. H.; Brandt, J.; Frohn, L. M.; Geels, C.

    2004-07-01

    The Danish Eulerian Hemispheric Model (DEHM) is a 3-D dynamical atmospheric transport model originally developed to describe the atmospheric transport of sulphur into the Arctic. A new version of the model, DEHM-POP, developed to study the atmospheric transport and environmental fate of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) is presented. During environmental cycling, POPs can be deposited and re-emitted several times before reaching a final destination. A description of the exchange processes between the land/ocean surfaces and the atmosphere is included in the model to account for this multi-hop transport. The α-isomer of the pesticide hexachlorocyclohexane (α-HCH) is used as tracer in the model development. The structure of the model and processes included are described in detail. The results from a model simulation showing the atmospheric transport for the years 1991 to 1998 are presented and evaluated against measurements. The annual averaged atmospheric concentration of α-HCH for the 1990s is well described by the model; however, the shorter-term average concentration for most of the stations is not well captured. This indicates that the present simple surface description needs to be refined to get a better description of the air-surface exchange processes of POPs.

  18. Modelling atmospheric transport of persistent organic pollutants in the Northern Hemisphere with a 3-D dynamical model: DEHM-POP

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, K. M.; Christensen, J. H.; Brandt, J.; Frohn, L. M.; Geels, C.

    2004-03-01

    The Danish Eulerian Hemispheric Model (DEHM) is a 3-D dynamical atmospheric transport model originally developed to describe the atmospheric transport of sulphur into the Arctic. A new version of the model, DEHM-POP, developed to study the atmospheric transport and environmental fate of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) is presented. During environmental cycling, POPs can be deposited and re-emitted several times before reaching a final destination. A description of the exchange processes between the land/ocean surfaces and the atmosphere is included in the model to account for this multi-hop transport. The α-isomer of the pesticide hexachlorocyclohexane (α-HCH) is used as tracer in the model development. The structure of the model and processes included are described in detail. The results from a model simulation showing the atmospheric transport for the years 1991 to 1998 are presented and evaluated against measurements. The annual averaged atmospheric concentration of α-HCH for the 1990s is well described by the model; however, the shorter-term average concentration for most of the stations is not well captured. This indicates that the present simple surface description needs to be refined to get a better description of the air-surface exchange proceses of POPs.

  19. Emplacement model of obsidian-rhyolite magma deduced from complete internal section of the Akaishiyama lava, Shirataki, northern Hokkaido, Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wada, K.; Sano, K.

    2016-12-01

    Simultaneously explosive and effusive eruptions of silicic magmas has shed light on the vesiculation and outgassing history of ascending magmas in the conduit and emplacement model of obsidian-rhyolite lavas (Castro et al., 2014; Shipper et al, 2013). As well as the knowledge of newly erupted products such as 2008-2009 Chaitén and 2011-2012 Cordón Caule eruptions, field and micro-textural evidences of well-exposed internal structure of obsidian-rhyolite lava leads to reveal eruption processes of silicic magmas. The Shirataki monogenetic volcano field, 2.2 million year age, northern Hokkaido, Japan, contains many outcrops of obsidian and vesiculated rhyolite zones (SiO2=76.7-77.4 wt.%). Among their outcrops, Akaishiyama lava shows good exposures of internal sections from the top to the bottom along the Kyukasawa valley with thickness of about 190 meters, showing the symmetrical structure comprising a upper clastic zone (UCZ; 5m thick), an upper dense obsidian zone (UDO; 15m), an upper banded obsidian zone (UBO; 70-80m), a central rhyolite zone (CR; 65m), a lower banded obsidian zone (LBO; 15m), a lower dense obsidian zone (LDO; 20m), and a lower clastic zone (LCZ; 3m). The upper banded obsidian zone is characterized by existence of spherulite concentration layers with tuffisite veins and rhyolite enclaves. Spherulites consisting of albite, cristobalaite and obsidian glass, are clustered in the dense obsidian. Tuffisite veins show brecciated obsidians in tuffaceous matrix, showing an outgassing path during the emplacement of obsidian lava. Perpendicular dip of spherulite parallel rows indicates the banded zone itself was the domain of vent area. From the observation of these occurrences in the internal section and rock texture, we show the qualitative formation model of Shirataki obsidian-rhyolite lava.

  20. Modeling Soil Carbon Dynamics in Northern Forests: Effects of Spatial and Temporal Aggregation of Climatic Input Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dalsgaard, Lise; Astrup, Rasmus; Antón-Fernández, Clara; Borgen, Signe Kynding; Breidenbach, Johannes; Lange, Holger; Lehtonen, Aleksi; Liski, Jari

    2016-01-01

    Boreal forests contain 30% of the global forest carbon with the majority residing in soils. While challenging to quantify, soil carbon changes comprise a significant, and potentially increasing, part of the terrestrial carbon cycle. Thus, their estimation is important when designing forest-based climate change mitigation strategies and soil carbon change estimates are required for the reporting of greenhouse gas emissions. Organic matter decomposition varies with climate in complex nonlinear ways, rendering data aggregation nontrivial. Here, we explored the effects of temporal and spatial aggregation of climatic and litter input data on regional estimates of soil organic carbon stocks and changes for upland forests. We used the soil carbon and decomposition model Yasso07 with input from the Norwegian National Forest Inventory (11275 plots, 1960-2012). Estimates were produced at three spatial and three temporal scales. Results showed that a national level average soil carbon stock estimate varied by 10% depending on the applied spatial and temporal scale of aggregation. Higher stocks were found when applying plot-level input compared to country-level input and when long-term climate was used as compared to annual or 5-year mean values. A national level estimate for soil carbon change was similar across spatial scales, but was considerably (60-70%) lower when applying annual or 5-year mean climate compared to long-term mean climate reflecting the recent climatic changes in Norway. This was particularly evident for the forest-dominated districts in the southeastern and central parts of Norway and in the far north. We concluded that the sensitivity of model estimates to spatial aggregation will depend on the region of interest. Further, that using long-term climate averages during periods with strong climatic trends results in large differences in soil carbon estimates. The largest differences in this study were observed in central and northern regions with strongly

  1. Snow cover monitoring model and change over both time and space in pastoral area of northern China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cui, Yan; Li, Suju; Wang, Ping; Zhang, Wei; Nie, Juan; Wen, Qi

    2014-11-01

    Snow disaster is a natural phenomenon owning to widespread snowfall for a long time and usually affect people's life, property and economic. During the whole disaster management circle, snow disaster in pastoral area of northern china which including Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, Tibet has been paid more attention. Thus do a good job in snow cover monitoring then found snow disaster in time can help the people in disaster area to take effective rescue measures, which always been the central and local government great important work. Remote sensing has been used widely in snow cover monitoring for its wide range, high efficiency, less conditions, more methods and large information. NOAA/AVHRR data has been used for wide range, plenty bands information and timely acquired and act as an import data of Snow Cover Monitoring Model (SCMM). SCMM including functions list below: First after NOAA/AVHRR data has been acquired, geometric calibration, radiometric calibration and other pre-processing work has been operated. Second after band operation, four threshold conditions are used to extract snow spectrum information among water, cloud and other features in NOAA/AVHRR image. Third snow cover information has been analyzed one by one and the maximum snow cover from about twenty images in a week has been selected. Then selected image has been mosaic which covered the pastoral area of China. At last both time and space analysis has been carried out through this operational model ,such as analysis on the difference between this week and the same period of last year , this week and last week in three level regional. SCMM have been run successfully for three years, and the results have been take into account as one of the three factors which led to risk warning of snow disaster and analysis results from it always play an important role in disaster reduction and relief.

  2. Geomagnetic activity at Northern Hemisphere's mid-latitude ground stations: How much can be explained using TS05 model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castillo, Yvelice; Pais, Maria Alexandra; Fernandes, João; Ribeiro, Paulo; Morozova, Anna L.; Pinheiro, Fernando J. G.

    2017-12-01

    For the 2007 to 2014 period, we use a statistical approach to evaluate the performance of Tsyganenko and Sitnov [2005] semi-empirical model (TS05) in estimating the magnetospheric transient signal observed at four Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude ground stations: Coimbra, Portugal; Panagyurishte, Bulgary; Novosibirsk, Russia and Boulder, USA. Using hourly mean data, we find that the TS05 performance is clearly better for the X (North-South) than for the Y (East-West) field components and for more geomagnetically active days as determined by local K-indices. In ∼ 50% (X) and ∼ 30% (Y) of the total number of geomagnetically active days, correlation values yield r ≥ 0.7. During more quiet conditions, only ∼ 30% (X) and ∼ 15% (Y) of the number of analyzed days yield r ≥ 0.7. We compute separate contributions from different magnetospheric currents to data time variability and to signal magnitude. During more active days, all tail, symmetric ring and partial ring currents contribute to the time variability of X while the partial ring and field aligned currents contribute most to the time variability of Y. The tail and symmetric ring currents are main contributors to the magnitude of X. In the best case estimations when r ≥ 0.7, remaining differences between observations and TS05 predictions could be explained by global induction in the Earth's upper layers and crustal magnetization. The closing of field aligned currents through the Earth's center in the TS05 model seems to be mainly affecting the Y magnetospheric field predictions.

  3. GPS horizontal deformation model in the southern region of the Iberian Peninsula and northern Africa (SPINA)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rosado Moscoso, B.; Fernández-Ros, A.; Jiménez Jiménez, A.; Berrocoso Domínguez, M.

    2017-01-01

    Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS), and in particular Global Positioning System (GPS) technology provides a powerful tool for studying geodynamic processes. As a consequence of GPS studies, it is now possible to analyze the interaction between tectonic plates in order to evaluate and establish the characteristics of their boundaries. In this study, our main interest is to focus on the time series analysis obtained from observations of GNSS-GPS satellites. Each GPS observation session provides topocentric geodetic coordinates (east, north, elevation) of the permanent stations that constitute the geodetic network established for this purpose. This paper shows a detailed topocentric coordinate time-series study for sites belonging to what we call the SPINA network, which stands for south of the Iberian Peninsula, north of Africa region. The series under study are processed by techniques of relative positioning with respect to the IGS (International GNSS Service) reference station located in Villafranca. These times series have been analyzed using filter processes, harmonic adjustments and wavelets. A surface velocity field is derived from the time series of daily solutions for each station, whose observations span 8 years or longer. This allows us to obtain a horizontal displacement model to show the regional geodynamic main characteristics. [es

  4. Pan-Arctic TV Series on Inuit wellness: a northern model of communication for social change?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Rhonda; Morales, Robin; Leavitt, Doreen; Carry, Catherine; Kinnon, Dianne; Rideout, Denise; Clarida, Kath

    2011-06-01

    This paper provides highlights of a utilization-focused evaluation of a collaborative Pan-Arctic Inuit Wellness TV Series that was broadcast live in Alaska and Canada in May 2009. This International Polar Year (IPY) communication and outreach project intended to (1) share information on International Polar Year research progress, disseminate findings and explore questions with Inuit in Alaska, Canada and Greenland; (2) provide a forum for Inuit in Alaska, Canada and Greenland to showcase innovative health and wellness projects; (3) ensure Inuit youth and adult engagement throughout; and (4) document and reflect on the overall experience for the purposes of developing and "testing" a participatory communication model. Utilization-focused formative evaluation of the project, with a focus on overall objectives, key messages and lessons learned to facilitate program improvement. Participant observation, surveys, key informant interviews, document review and website tracking. Promising community programs related to 3 themes - men's wellness, maternity care and youth resilience - in diverse circumpolar regions were highlighted, as were current and stillevolving findings from ongoing Arctic research. Multiple media methods were used to effectively deliver and receive key messages determined by both community and academic experts. Local capacity and new regional networks were strengthened. Evidence-based resources for health education and community action were archived in digital formats (websites and DVDs), increasing accessibility to otherwise isolated individuals and remote communities. The Pan-Arctic Inuit Wellness TV Series was an innovative, multi-dimensional communication project that raised both interest and awareness about complex health conditions in the North and stimulated community dialogue and potential for increased collaborative action. Consistent with a communication for social change approach, the project created new networks, increased motivation to act

  5. Tall Tower Wind Energy Monitoring and Numerical Model Validation in Northern Nevada

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Koracin, D. [Desert Research Inst. (DRI), Las Vegas, NV (United States); Kaplan, M. [Desert Research Inst. (DRI), Las Vegas, NV (United States); Smith, C. [Desert Research Inst. (DRI), Las Vegas, NV (United States); McCurdy, G. [Desert Research Inst. (DRI), Las Vegas, NV (United States); Wolf, A. [Desert Research Inst. (DRI), Las Vegas, NV (United States); McCord, T. [Desert Research Inst. (DRI), Las Vegas, NV (United States); King, K. [Desert Research Inst. (DRI), Las Vegas, NV (United States); Belu, R. [Drexel Univ., Philadelphia, PA (United States); Horvath, K. [Croatian Meteorological and Hydrological Service, Zagreb (Croatia)

    2015-10-01

    The main objectives of this project were to conduct a tall-tower and sodar field campaign in complex terrain, investigate wind properties relevant to wind energy assessment, and evaluate high-resolution models with fixed and adaptive grid structures. Two 60-m towers at Virginia Peak ridges near Washoe Valley, Nevada, were instrumented with cup and vane anemometers as well as sonic anemometers, and an acoustic sounder (hereafter sodar) was installed near one of the towers. The towers were located 2,700 m apart with a vertical distance of 140 m elevation between their bases. Each tower had a downhill exposure of rolling complex terrain, with the nearby valley floor 3,200 m to the west and 800 m below the summit. Cup anemometers were installed at both towers at 20, 40, and 60 m, wind vanes at 20 and 60 m, and sonic anemometers at 20 and 60 m. The sodar measurements were nominally provided every 10 m in vertical distance from 40 to 200 m with the quality of the data generally decreasing with height. Surface air temperature, atmospheric pressure, and radiation measurements were conducted at 1.5 m AGL at both of the towers. Although the plan was to conduct a 1-year period of data collection, we extended the period (October 5, 2012 through February 24, 2014) to cover for possible data loss from instrument or communication problems. We also present a preliminary analysis of the towers and sodar data, including a detailed inventory of available and missing data as well as outliers. The analysis additionally includes calculation of the Weibull parameters, turbulence intensity, and initial computation of wind power density at various heights.

  6. Rainfall model investigation and scenario analyses of the effect of government reforestation policy on seasonal rainfalls: A case study from Northern Thailand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duangdai, Eakkapong; Likasiri, Chulin

    2017-03-01

    In this work, 4 models for predicting rainfall amounts are investigated and compared using Northern Thailand's seasonal rainfall data for 1973-2008. Two models, global temperature, forest area and seasonal rainfall (TFR) and modified TFR based on a system of differential equations, give the relationships between global temperature, Northern Thailand's forest cover and seasonal rainfalls in the region. The other two models studied are time series and Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) models. All models are validated using the k-fold cross validation method with the resulting errors being 0.971233, 0.740891, 2.376415 and 2.430891 for time series, ARMA, TFR and modified TFR models, respectively. Under Business as Usual (BaU) scenario, seasonal rainfalls in Northern Thailand are projected through the year 2020 using all 4 models. TFR and modified TFR models are also used to further analyze how global temperature rise and government reforestation policy affect seasonal rainfalls in the region. Rainfall projections obtained via the two models are also compared with those from the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) under IS92a scenario. Results obtained through a mathematical model for global temperature, forest area and seasonal rainfall show that the higher the forest cover, the less fluctuation there is between rainy-season and summer rainfalls. Moreover, growth in forest cover also correlates with an increase in summer rainfalls. An investigation into the relationship between main crop productions and rainfalls in dry and rainy seasons indicates that if the rainy-season rainfall is high, that year's main-crop rice production will decrease but the second-crop rice, maize, sugarcane and soybean productions will increase in the following year.

  7. Ducks and passerines nesting in northern mixed-grass prairie treated with fire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grant, Todd A.; Shaffer, Terry L.; Madden, Elizabeth M.; Berkey, Gordon B.

    2011-01-01

    Prescribed fire is an important, ecology-driven tool for restoration of grassland systems. However, prescribed fire remains controversial for some grassland managers because of reported reductions in bird use of recently burned grasslands. Few studies have evaluated effects of fire on grassland bird populations in the northern mixed-grass prairie region. Fewer studies yet have examined the influence of fire on nest density or survival. In our review, we found no studies that simultaneously examined effects of fire on duck and passerine nesting. During 1998—2003, we examined effects of prescribed fire on the density of upland-nesting ducks and passerines nesting in north-central North Dakota, USA. Apparent nest densities of gadwall (Anas strepera), mallard (A. platyrhynchos), and all duck species combined, were influenced by fire history of study units, although the degree of influence was not compelling. Fire history was not related to nest densities of blue-winged teal (A. discors), northern shoveler (A. clypeata), or northern pintail (A. acuta); however, apparent nest densities in relation to the number of postfire growing seasons exhibited a strikingly similar pattern among all duck species. When compared to ducks, fire history strongly influenced apparent nest densities of clay-colored sparrow (Spizella pallida), Savannah sparrow (Passerculus sandwichensis), and bobolink (Dolichonyx oryzivorus). For most species examined, apparent nest densities were lowest in recently burned units, increased during the second postfire growing season, and stabilized or, in some cases, decreased thereafter. Prescribed fire is critical for restoring the ecology of northern mixed-grass prairies and our findings indicate that reductions in nest densities are limited mostly to the first growing season after fire. Our results support the premise that upland-nesting ducks and several grassland passerine species are adapted to periodic fires occurring at a frequency similar to that

  8. The post-opium scenario and rubber in northern Laos: Alternative Western and Chinese models of development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohen, Paul T

    2009-09-01

    In the past few years rubber planting has spread rapidly throughout northern Laos, especially in Luang Namtha province that borders China. The impetus for this boom has come partly from the spiralling demand for rubber in China (now the world's largest rubber consumer), the high world prices for rubber, and China's promotion of overseas investment through its opium-replacement policy. These economic factors have converged with the desperate need of impoverished highlanders in northern Laos to replace opium as a cash crop as a consequence of a recent opium-eradication campaign and inadequate alternative development. This paper draws upon ethnographic and agro-economic research in northern Laos and neighbouring regions and reports of international development organisations operating in Laos. The rubber boom in northern Laos represents a fundamental clash between Western drug-oriented alternative development, on the one hand, and China's national economic strategies abroad and investment-led narcotics policy, on the other. China's opium-replacement policy has contributed to a type of unregulated frontier capitalism with socio-economic and environmental effects that threaten the principles and goals of alternative development and even to marginalise the role international development organisations in northern Laos.

  9. Three-dimensional dust aerosol distribution and extinction climatology over northern Africa simulated with the ALADIN numerical prediction model from 2006 to 2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mokhtari, M.; Tulet, P.; Fischer, C.; Bouteloup, Y.; Bouyssel, F.; Brachemi, O.

    2015-08-01

    The seasonal cycle and optical properties of mineral dust aerosols in northern Africa were simulated for the period from 2006 to 2010 using the numerical atmospheric model ALADIN (Aire Limitée Adaptation dynamique Développement InterNational) coupled to the surface scheme SURFEX (SURFace EXternalisée). The particularity of the simulations is that the major physical processes responsible for dust emission and transport, as well as radiative effects, are taken into account on short timescales and at mesoscale resolution. The aim of these simulations is to quantify the dust emission and deposition, locate the major areas of dust emission and establish a climatology of aerosol optical properties in northern Africa. The mean monthly aerosol optical thickness (AOT) simulated by ALADIN is compared with the AOTs derived from the standard Dark Target (DT) and Deep Blue (DB) algorithms of the Aqua-MODIS (MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) products over northern Africa and with a set of sun photometer measurements located at Banizoumbou, Cinzana, Soroa, Mbour and Cape Verde. The vertical distribution of dust aerosol represented by extinction profiles is also analysed using CALIOP (Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization) observations. The annual dust emission simulated by ALADIN over northern Africa is 878 Tg year-1. The Bodélé Depression appears to be the main area of dust emission in northern Africa, with an average estimate of about 21.6 Tg year-1. The simulated AOTs are in good agreement with satellite and sun photometer observations. The positions of the maxima of the modelled AOTs over northern Africa match the observed positions, and the ALADIN simulations satisfactorily reproduce the various dust events over the 2006-2010 period. The AOT climatology proposed in this paper provides a solid database of optical properties and consolidates the existing climatology over this region derived from satellites, the AERONET network and regional climate

  10. Attribution of modeled atmospheric sulfate and SO2 in the Northern Hemisphere for June–July 1997

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. M. Benkovitz

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Anthropogenic sulfate aerosol is a major contributor to shortwave radiative forcing of climate change by direct light scattering and by perturbing cloud properties and to local concentrations of atmospheric particulate matter. Here we analyze results from previously published calculations with an Eulerian transport model for atmospheric sulfur species in the Northern Hemisphere in June–July, 1997 to quantify the absolute and relative contributions of specific source regions (North America, Europe, and Asia and SO2-to-sulfate conversion mechanisms (gas-phase, aqueous-phase and primary sulfate to sulfate and SO2 column burdens as a function of location and time. Although material emitted within a given region dominates the sulfate and SO2 column burden in that region, examination of time series at specific locations shows that material imported from outside can make a substantial and occasionally dominant contribution. Frequently the major fraction of these exogenous contributions to the sulfate column burden was present aloft, thus minimally impacting air quality at the surface, but contributing substantially to the burden and, by implication, to radiative forcing and diminution of surface irradiance. Although the dominant sulfate formation pathway in the domain as a whole is aqueous-phase reaction in clouds (62%, in regions with minimum opportunity for aqueous-phase reaction gas-phase oxidation is dominant, albeit with considerable temporal variability depending on meteorological conditions. These calculations highlight the importance of transoceanic transport of sulfate, especially at the western margins of continents under the influence of predominantly westerly transport winds.

  11. Evaluation of trail-cameras for analyzing the diet of nesting raptors using the Northern Goshawk as a model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    García-Salgado, Gonzalo; Rebollo, Salvador; Pérez-Camacho, Lorenzo; Martínez-Hesterkamp, Sara; Navarro, Alberto; Fernández-Pereira, José-Manuel

    2015-01-01

    Diet studies present numerous methodological challenges. We evaluated the usefulness of commercially available trail-cameras for analyzing the diet of Northern Goshawks (Accipiter gentilis) as a model for nesting raptors during the period 2007-2011. We compared diet estimates obtained by direct camera monitoring of 80 nests with four indirect analyses of prey remains collected from the nests and surroundings (pellets, bones, feather-and-hair remains, and feather-hair-and-bone remains combined). In addition, we evaluated the performance of the trail-cameras and whether camera monitoring affected Goshawk behavior. The sensitivity of each diet-analysis method depended on prey size and taxonomic group, with no method providing unbiased estimates for all prey sizes and types. The cameras registered the greatest number of prey items and were probably the least biased method for estimating diet composition. Nevertheless this direct method yielded the largest proportion of prey unidentified to species level, and it underestimated small prey. Our trail-camera system was able to operate without maintenance for longer periods than what has been reported in previous studies with other types of cameras. Initially Goshawks showed distrust toward the cameras but they usually became habituated to its presence within 1-2 days. The habituation period was shorter for breeding pairs that had previous experience with cameras. Using trail-cameras to monitor prey provisioning to nests is an effective tool for studying the diet of nesting raptors. However, the technique is limited by technical failures and difficulties in identifying certain prey types. Our study also shows that cameras can alter adult Goshawk behavior, an aspect that must be controlled to minimize potential negative impacts.

  12. Evaluation of trail-cameras for analyzing the diet of nesting raptors using the Northern Goshawk as a model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gonzalo García-Salgado

    Full Text Available Diet studies present numerous methodological challenges. We evaluated the usefulness of commercially available trail-cameras for analyzing the diet of Northern Goshawks (Accipiter gentilis as a model for nesting raptors during the period 2007-2011. We compared diet estimates obtained by direct camera monitoring of 80 nests with four indirect analyses of prey remains collected from the nests and surroundings (pellets, bones, feather-and-hair remains, and feather-hair-and-bone remains combined. In addition, we evaluated the performance of the trail-cameras and whether camera monitoring affected Goshawk behavior. The sensitivity of each diet-analysis method depended on prey size and taxonomic group, with no method providing unbiased estimates for all prey sizes and types. The cameras registered the greatest number of prey items and were probably the least biased method for estimating diet composition. Nevertheless this direct method yielded the largest proportion of prey unidentified to species level, and it underestimated small prey. Our trail-camera system was able to operate without maintenance for longer periods than what has been reported in previous studies with other types of cameras. Initially Goshawks showed distrust toward the cameras but they usually became habituated to its presence within 1-2 days. The habituation period was shorter for breeding pairs that had previous experience with cameras. Using trail-cameras to monitor prey provisioning to nests is an effective tool for studying the diet of nesting raptors. However, the technique is limited by technical failures and difficulties in identifying certain prey types. Our study also shows that cameras can alter adult Goshawk behavior, an aspect that must be controlled to minimize potential negative impacts.

  13. Toward Improving Predictability of Extreme Hydrometeorological Events: the Use of Multi-scale Climate Modeling in the Northern High Plains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munoz-Arriola, F.; Torres-Alavez, J.; Mohamad Abadi, A.; Walko, R. L.

    2014-12-01

    Our goal is to investigate possible sources of predictability of hydrometeorological extreme events in the Northern High Plains. Hydrometeorological extreme events are considered the most costly natural phenomena. Water deficits and surpluses highlight how the water-climate interdependence becomes crucial in areas where single activities drive economies such as Agriculture in the NHP. Nonetheless we recognize the Water-Climate interdependence and the regulatory role that human activities play, we still grapple to identify what sources of predictability could be added to flood and drought forecasts. To identify the benefit of multi-scale climate modeling and the role of initial conditions on flood and drought predictability on the NHP, we use the Ocean Land Atmospheric Model (OLAM). OLAM is characterized by a dynamic core with a global geodesic grid with hexagonal (and variably refined) mesh cells and a finite volume discretization of the full compressible Navier Stokes equations, a cut-grid cell method for topography (that reduces error in computational gradient computation and anomalous vertical dispersion). Our hypothesis is that wet conditions will drive OLAM's simulations of precipitation to wetter conditions affecting both flood forecast and drought forecast. To test this hypothesis we simulate precipitation during identified historical flood events followed by drought events in the NHP (i.e. 2011-2012 years). We initialized OLAM with CFS-data 1-10 days previous to a flooding event (as initial conditions) to explore (1) short-term and high-resolution and (2) long-term and coarse-resolution simulations of flood and drought events, respectively. While floods are assessed during a maximum of 15-days refined-mesh simulations, drought is evaluated during the following 15 months. Simulated precipitation will be compared with the Sub-continental Observation Dataset, a gridded 1/16th degree resolution data obtained from climatological stations in Canada, US, and

  14. Model-based scenario planning to inform climate change adaptation in the Northern Great Plains—Final report

    Science.gov (United States)

    Symstad, Amy J.; Miller, Brian W.; Friedman, Jonathan M.; Fisichelli, Nicholas A.; Ray, Andrea J.; Rowland, Erika; Schuurman, Gregor W.

    2017-12-18

    Public SummaryWe worked with managers in two focal areas to plan for the uncertain future by integrating quantitative climate change scenarios and simulation modeling into scenario planning exercises.In our central North Dakota focal area, centered on Knife River Indian Villages National Historic Site, managers are concerned about how changes in flood severity and growing conditions for native and invasive plants may affect archaeological resources and cultural landscapes associated with the Knife and Missouri Rivers. Climate projections and hydrological modeling based on those projections indicate plausible changes in spring and summer soil moisture ranging from a 7 percent decrease to a 13 percent increase and maximum winter snowpack (important for spring flooding) changes ranging from a 13 percent decrease to a 47 percent increase. Facilitated discussions among managers and scientists exploring the implications of these different climate scenarios for resource management revealed potential conflicts between protecting archeological sites and fostering riparian cottonwood forests. The discussions also indicated the need to prioritize archeological sites for excavation or protection and culturally important plant species for intensive management attention.In our southwestern South Dakota focal area, centered on Badlands National Park, managers are concerned about how changing climate will affect vegetation production, wildlife populations, and erosion of fossils, archeological artifacts, and roads. Climate scenarios explored by managers and scientists in this focal area ranged from a 13 percent decrease to a 33 percent increase in spring precipitation, which is critical to plant growth in the northern Great Plains region, and a slight decrease to a near doubling of intense rain events. Facilitated discussions in this focal area concluded that greater effort should be put into preparing for emergency protection, excavation, and preservation of exposed fossils or

  15. Natural radionuclides tracing in marine surface waters along the northern coast of Oman Sea by combining the radioactivity analysis, oceanic currents and the SWAN model results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zare, Mohammad Reza; Mostajaboddavati, Mojtaba; Kamali, Mahdi; Tari, Marziyeh; Mosayebi, Sanaz; Mortazavi, Mohammad Seddigh

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • This study estimates radioactive pollution diffusion in coastline of the Oman Sea. • 36 high volume surface water samples were analyzed using a portable HPGe detector. • Oceanic currents in the northern coast of Oman Sea were investigated. • The spectral wave model SWAN was used for wave parameters simulation. • Currents and preferable wave directions were coupled with higher radioactivity. - Abstract: This study aims to establish a managed sampling plan for rapid estimate of natural radio-nuclides diffusion in the northern coast of the Oman Sea. First, the natural radioactivity analysis in 36 high volume surface water samples was carried out using a portable high-resolution gamma-ray spectrometry. Second, the oceanic currents in the northern coast were investigated. Then, the third generation spectral SWAN model was utilized to simulate wave parameters. Direction of natural radioactivity propagation was coupled with the preferable wave vectors and oceanic currents direction that face to any marine pollution, these last two factors will contribute to increase or decrease of pollution in each grid. The results were indicated that the natural radioactivity concentration between the grids 8600 and 8604 is gathered in the grid 8600 and between the grids 8605 and 8608 is propagated toward middle part of Oman Sea

  16. A conceptual hydrogeological model of ophiolitic aquifers (serpentinised peridotite): The test example of Mt. Prinzera (Northern Italy)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Segadelli, Stefano; Vescovi, Paolo; Ogata, Kei; Chelli, Alessandro; Zanini, Andrea; Boschetti, Tiziano; Petrella, Emma; Toscani, Lorenzo; Gargini, Alessandro; Celico, Fulvio

    2017-01-01

    © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.The main aim of this study is the experimental analysis of the hydrogeological behaviour of the Mt. Prinzera ultramafic massif in the northern Apennines, Italy. The analysed multidisciplinary database has been acquired through (a) geologic and structural survey; (b)

  17. The scientific basis for modeling Northern Spotted Owl habitat: A response to Loehle, Irwin, Manly, and Merrill

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeffrey R. Dunk; Brian Woodbridge; Elizabeth M. Glenn; Raymond J. Davis; Katherine Fitzgerald; Paul Henson; David W. LaPlante; Bruce G. Marcot; Barry R. Noon; Martin G. Raphael; Nathan H. Schumaker; Brendan. White

    2015-01-01

    The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service recently revised the recovery plan (USFWS, 2011) and designated Critical Habitat (USFWS, 2012a) for the Northern Spotted Owl (Strix occidentalis caurina). The Critical Habitat designation was based in part on a map of relative habitat suitability that was developed by USFWS (2011, 2012b) for this purpose. Loehle...

  18. Predictive habitat models derived from nest-box occupancy for the endangered Carolina northern flying squirrel in the southern Appalachians

    Science.gov (United States)

    W. Mark Ford; Andrew M. Evans; Richard H. Odom; Jane L. Rodrigue; Christine A. Kelly; Nicole Abaid; Corinne A. Diggins; Douglas Newcomb

    2015-01-01

    In the southern Appalachians, artificial nest-boxes are used to survey for the endangered Carolina northern flying squirrel (CNFS; Glaucomys sabrinus coloratus), a disjunct subspecies associated with high elevation (>1385 m) forests. Using environmental parameters diagnostic of squirrel habitat, we created 35 a priori occupancy...

  19. A coupled physical-biological model of the Northern Gulf of Mexico shelf: model description, validation and analysis of phytoplankton variability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Fennel

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available The Texas-Louisiana shelf in the Northern Gulf of Mexico receives large inputs of nutrients and freshwater from the Mississippi/Atchafalaya River system. The nutrients stimulate high rates of primary production in the river plume, which contributes to the development of a large and recurring hypoxic area in summer, but the mechanistic links between hypoxia and river discharge of freshwater and nutrients are complex as the accumulation and vertical export of organic matter, the establishment and maintenance of vertical stratification, and the microbial degradation of organic matter are controlled by a non-linear interplay of factors. Unraveling these interactions will have to rely on a combination of observations and models. Here we present results from a realistic, 3-dimensional, physical-biological model with focus on a quantification of nutrient-stimulated phytoplankton growth, its variability and the fate of this organic matter. We demonstrate that the model realistically reproduces many features of observed nitrate and phytoplankton dynamics including observed property distributions and rates. We then contrast the environmental factors and phytoplankton source and sink terms characteristic of three model subregions that represent an ecological gradient from eutrophic to oligotrophic conditions. We analyze specifically the reasons behind the counterintuitive observation that primary production in the light-limited plume region near the Mississippi River delta is positively correlated with river nutrient input, and find that, while primary production and phytoplankton biomass are positively correlated with nutrient load, phytoplankton growth rate is not. This suggests that accumulation of biomass in this region is not primarily controlled bottom up by nutrient-stimulation, but top down by systematic differences in the loss processes.

  20. Hydrogeology of northern Sierra de Chiapas, Mexico: a conceptual model based on a geochemical characterization of sulfide-rich karst brackish springs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosales Lagarde, Laura; Boston, Penelope J.; Campbell, Andrew R.; Hose, Louise D.; Axen, Gary; Stafford, Kevin W.

    2014-09-01

    Conspicuous sulfide-rich karst springs flow from Cretaceous carbonates in northern Sierra de Chiapas, Mexico. This is a geologically complex, tropical karst area. The physical, geologic, hydrologic and chemical attributes of these springs were determined and integrated into a conceptual hydrogeologic model. A meteoric source and a recharge elevation below 1,500 m are estimated from the spring-water isotopic signature regardless of their chemical composition. Brackish spring water flows at a maximum depth of 2,000 m, as inferred from similar chemical attributes to the produced water from a nearby oil well. Oil reservoirs may be found at depths below 2,000 m. Three subsurface environments or aquifers are identified based on the B, Li+, K+ and SiO2 concentrations, spring water temperatures, and CO2 pressures. There is mixing between these aquifers. The aquifer designated Local is shallow and contains potable water vulnerable to pollution. The aquifer named Northern receives some brackish produced water. The composition of the Southern aquifer is influenced by halite dissolution enhanced at fault detachment surfaces. Epigenic speleogenesis is associated with the Local springs. In contrast, hypogenic speleogenesis is associated with the brackish sulfidic springs from the Northern and the Southern environments.

  1. The computerized semi-quantitative comprehensive identification-evaluation model for the large-sized in-situ leachable sandstone type uranium deposits in Northern Xinjiang, China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhengbang, Wang; Mingkuan, Qin; Ruiquan, Zhao; Shenghuang, Tang [Beijing Research Inst. of Uranium Geology, CNNC (China); Baoqun, Wang; Shuangxing, Lin [Geo-prospecting Team No. 216, CNNC (China)

    2001-08-01

    The process of establishment of the model includes following steps: (1) Systematically studying a known typical in-situ leachable sandstone type uranium deposit--Deposit No. 512 in Yili basin, analyzing its controlling factors and establishing its metallogenetic model; (2) Establishing the metallogenetic models of this type of uranium deposit and uranium-bearing area on the basis of comparison study on the deposit No. 512 with the same type uranium deposits in the world; (3) Creating the computerized semi-quantitative comprehensive identification-evaluation model for the large-sized in-situ leachable sandstone type uranium deposits in northern Xinjiang; (4) Determining the standards of giving a evaluation-mark for each controlling factor of in-situ leachable sandstone type uranium deposit and uranium-bearing area; (5) Evaluating uranium potential and prospect of the unknown objective target.

  2. The computerized semi-quantitative comprehensive identification-evaluation model for the large-sized in-situ leachable sandstone type uranium deposits in Northern Xinjiang, China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Zhengbang; Qin Mingkuan; Zhao Ruiquan; Tang Shenghuang; Wang Baoqun; Lin Shuangxing

    2001-01-01

    The process of establishment of the model includes following steps: (1) Systematically studying a known typical in-situ leachable sandstone type uranium deposit--Deposit No. 512 in Yili basin, analyzing its controlling factors and establishing its metallogenetic model; (2) Establishing the metallogenetic models of this type of uranium deposit and uranium-bearing area on the basis of comparison study on the deposit No. 512 with the same type uranium deposits in the world; (3) Creating the computerized semi-quantitative comprehensive identification-evaluation model for the large-sized in-situ leachable sandstone type uranium deposits in northern Xinjiang; (4) Determining the standards of giving a evaluation-mark for each controlling factor of in-situ leachable sandstone type uranium deposit and uranium-bearing area; (5) Evaluating uranium potential and prospect of the unknown objective target

  3. USE OF THE “ROTHC” MODEL TO SIMULATE SOIL ORGANIC CARBON DYNAMICS ON A SILTY-LOAM INCEPTISOL IN NORTHERN ITALY UNDER DIFFERENT FERTILIZATION PRACTICES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rosa Francaviglia

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available We evaluated the efficiency of the RothC model to simulate Soil Organic Carbon (SOC dynamics after 12 years of organic and mineral fertilization practices in a study area located in northern Italy, on a silty-loam Inceptisol with a rotation including tomato, maize and alfalfa. The model performance was assessed by RMSE and EF coefficients. RothC simulated well observed SOC decreases in 71 samples (RMSE=7.42; EF=0.79, while performed with less accuracy when considering all samples (96 samples; RMSE=12.37; EF=0.58, due to the fact that the model failed in case of measured SOC increases (25 samples; RMSE=20.77; EF=-0.038. The model was used to forecast the SOC dynamics over a 50 year period under the same pedoclimatic conditions. Only clay contents >15% allowed to predict increasing levels of SOC respect to the starting values.

  4. Application of Weather Research and Forecasting Model with Chemistry (WRF/Chem) over northern China: Sensitivity study, comparative evaluation, and policy implications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Litao; Zhang, Yang; Wang, Kai; Zheng, Bo; Zhang, Qiang; Wei, Wei

    2016-01-01

    An extremely severe and persistent haze event occurred over the middle and eastern China in January 2013, with the record-breaking high concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM2.5). In this study, an online-coupled meteorology-air quality model, the Weather Research and Forecasting Model with Chemistry (WRF/Chem), is applied to simulate this pollution episode over East Asia and northern China at 36- and 12-km grid resolutions. A number of simulations are conducted to examine the sensitivities of the model predictions to various physical schemes. The results show that all simulations give similar predictions for temperature, wind speed, wind direction, and humidity, but large variations exist in the prediction for precipitation. The concentrations of PM2.5, particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter of 10 μm or less (PM10), sulfur dioxide (SO2), and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) are overpredicted partially due to the lack of wet scavenging by the chemistry-aerosol option with the 1999 version of the Statewide Air Pollution Research Center (SAPRC-99) mechanism with the Model for Simulating Aerosol Interactions and Chemistry (MOSAIC) and the Volatility Basis Set (VBS) for secondary organic aerosol formation. The optimal set of configurations with the best performance is the simulation with the Gorddard shortwave and RRTM longwave radiation schemes, the Purdue Lin microphysics scheme, the Kain-Fritsch cumulus scheme, and a nudging coefficient of 1 × 10-5 for water vapor mixing ratio. The emission sensitivity simulations show that the PM2.5 concentrations are most sensitive to nitrogen oxide (NOx) and SO2 emissions in northern China, but to NOx and ammonia (NH3) emissions in southern China. 30% NOx emission reductions may result in an increase in PM2.5 concentrations in northern China because of the NH3-rich and volatile organic compound (VOC) limited conditions over this area. VOC emission reductions will lead to a decrease in PM2.5 concentrations in eastern China

  5. Future Temperatures and Precipitations in the Arid Northern-Central Chile: A Multi-Model Downscaling Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Souvignet, M.; Heinrich, J.

    2010-03-01

    Downscaling of global climate outputs is necessary to transfer projections of potential climate change scenarios to local levels. This is of special interest to dry mountainous areas, which are particularly vulnerable to climate change due to risks of reduced freshwater availability. These areas play a key role for hydrology since they usually receive the highest local precipitation rates stored in form of snow and glaciers. In the central-northern Chile (Norte Chico, 26-33ºS), where agriculture still serves as a backbone of the economy as well as ensures the well being of people, the knowledge of water resources availability is essential. The region is characterised by a semiarid climate with a mean annual precipitation inferior to 100mm. Moreover, the local climate is also highly influenced by the ENSO phenomenon, which accounts for the strong inter-annual variability in precipitation patterns. Although historical and spatially extensive precipitation data in the headwaters of the basins in this region are not readily available, records at coastal stations show worrisome trends. For instance, the average precipitation in La Serena, the most important city located in the Coquimbo Region, has decreased dramatically in the past 100 years. The 30-year monthly average has decreased from 170 mm in the early 20th century to values less than 80 mm nowadays. Climate Change is expected to strengthen this pattern in the region, and therefore strongly influence local hydrological patterns. The objectives of this study are i) to develop climate change scenarios (2046-2099) for the Norte Chico using multi-model predictions in terms of temperatures and precipitations, and ii) to compare the efficiency of two downscaling techniques in arid mountainous regions. In addition, this study aims at iii) providing decision makers with sound analysis of potential impact of Climate Change on streamflow in the region. For the present study, future local climate scenarios were developed

  6. A project optimization for small watercourses restoration in the northern part of the Volga-Akhtuba floodplain by the geoinformation and hydrodynamic modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voronin, Alexander; Vasilchenko, Ann; Khoperskov, Alexander

    2018-03-01

    The project of small watercourses restoration in the northern part of the Volga-Akhtuba floodplain is considered together with the aim of increasing the watering of the territory during small and medium floods. The topography irregularity, the complex structure of the floodplain valley consisting of large number of small watercourses, the presence of urbanized and agricultural areas require careful preliminary analysis of the hydrological safety and efficiency of geographically distributed project activities. Using the digital terrain and watercourses structure models of the floodplain, the hydrodynamic flood model, the analysis of the hydrological safety and efficiency of several project implementation strategies has been conducted. The objective function values have been obtained from the hydrodynamic calculations of the floodplain territory flooding for virtual digital terrain models simulating alternatives for the geographically distributed project activities. The comparative efficiency of several empirical strategies for the geographically distributed project activities, as well as a two-stage exact solution method for the optimization problem has been studied.

  7. Evaluation of Land Surface Models in Reproducing Satellite-Derived LAI over the High-Latitude Northern Hemisphere. Part I: Uncoupled DGVMs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ning Zeng

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Leaf Area Index (LAI represents the total surface area of leaves above a unit area of ground and is a key variable in any vegetation model, as well as in climate models. New high resolution LAI satellite data is now available covering a period of several decades. This provides a unique opportunity to validate LAI estimates from multiple vegetation models. The objective of this paper is to compare new, satellite-derived LAI measurements with modeled output for the Northern Hemisphere. We compare monthly LAI output from eight land surface models from the TRENDY compendium with satellite data from an Artificial Neural Network (ANN from the latest version (third generation of GIMMS AVHRR NDVI data over the period 1986–2005. Our results show that all the models overestimate the mean LAI, particularly over the boreal forest. We also find that seven out of the eight models overestimate the length of the active vegetation-growing season, mostly due to a late dormancy as a result of a late summer phenology. Finally, we find that the models report a much larger positive trend in LAI over this period than the satellite observations suggest, which translates into a higher trend in the growing season length. These results highlight the need to incorporate a larger number of more accurate plant functional types in all models and, in particular, to improve the phenology of deciduous trees.

  8. Three-dimensional hydrogeologic framework model of the Rio Grande transboundary region of New Mexico and Texas, USA, and northern Chihuahua, Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sweetkind, Donald S.

    2017-09-08

    As part of a U.S. Geological Survey study in cooperation with the Bureau of Reclamation, a digital three-dimensional hydrogeologic framework model was constructed for the Rio Grande transboundary region of New Mexico and Texas, USA, and northern Chihuahua, Mexico. This model was constructed to define the aquifer system geometry and subsurface lithologic characteristics and distribution for use in a regional numerical hydrologic model. The model includes five hydrostratigraphic units: river channel alluvium, three informal subdivisions of Santa Fe Group basin fill, and an undivided pre-Santa Fe Group bedrock unit. Model input data were compiled from published cross sections, well data, structure contour maps, selected geophysical data, and contiguous compilations of surficial geology and structural features in the study area. These data were used to construct faulted surfaces that represent the upper and lower subsurface hydrostratigraphic unit boundaries. The digital three-dimensional hydrogeologic framework model is constructed through combining faults, the elevation of the tops of each hydrostratigraphic unit, and boundary lines depicting the subsurface extent of each hydrostratigraphic unit. The framework also compiles a digital representation of the distribution of sedimentary facies within each hydrostratigraphic unit. The digital three-dimensional hydrogeologic model reproduces with reasonable accuracy the previously published subsurface hydrogeologic conceptualization of the aquifer system and represents the large-scale geometry of the subsurface aquifers. The model is at a scale and resolution appropriate for use as the foundation for a numerical hydrologic model of the study area.

  9. A new space-time characterization of Northern Hemisphere drought in model simulations of the past and future as compared to the paleoclimate record

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coats, S.; Smerdon, J. E.; Stevenson, S.; Fasullo, J.; Otto-Bliesner, B. L.

    2017-12-01

    The observational record, which provides only limited sampling of past climate variability, has made it difficult to quantitatively analyze the complex spatio-temporal character of drought. To provide a more complete characterization of drought, machine learning based methods that identify drought in three-dimensional space-time are applied to climate model simulations of the last millennium and future, as well as tree-ring based reconstructions of hydroclimate over the Northern Hemisphere extratropics. A focus is given to the most persistent and severe droughts of the past 1000 years. Analyzing reconstructions and simulations in this context allows for a validation of the spatio-temporal character of persistent and severe drought in climate model simulations. Furthermore, the long records provided by the reconstructions and simulations, allows for sufficient sampling to constrain projected changes to the spatio-temporal character of these features using the reconstructions. Along these lines, climate models suggest that there will be large increases in the persistence and severity of droughts over the coming century, but little change in their spatial extent. These models, however, exhibit biases in the spatio-temporal character of persistent and severe drought over parts of the Northern Hemisphere, which may undermine their usefulness for future projections. Despite these limitations, and in contrast to previous claims, there are no systematic changes in the character of persistent and severe droughts in simulations of the historical interval. This suggests that climate models are not systematically overestimating the hydroclimate response to anthropogenic forcing over this period, with critical implications for confidence in hydroclimate projections.

  10. Changes in the Intensity and Frequency of Atmospheric Blocking and Associated Heat Waves During Northern Summer Over Eurasia in the CMIP5 Model Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Kyu-Myong; Lau, K. M.; Wu, H. T.; Kim, Maeng-Ki; Cho, Chunho

    2012-01-01

    The Russia heat wave and wild fires of the summer of 2010 was the most extreme weather event in the history of the country. Studies show that the root cause of the 2010 Russia heat wave/wild fires was an atmospheric blocking event which started to develop at the end of June and peaked around late July and early August. Atmospheric blocking in the summer of 2010 was anomalous in terms of the size, duration, and the location, which shifted to the east from the normal location. This and other similar continental scale severe summertime heat waves and blocking events in recent years have raised the question of whether such events are occurring more frequently and with higher intensity in a warmer climate induced by greenhouse gases. We studied the spatial and temporal distributions of the occurrence and intensity of atmospheric blocking and associated heat waves for northern summer over Eurasia based on CMIPS model simulations. To examine the global warming induced change of atmospheric blocking and heat waves, experiments for a high emissions scenario (RCP8.S) and a medium mitigation scenario (RCP4.S) are compared to the 20th century simulations (historical). Most models simulate the mean distributions of blockings reasonably well, including major blocking centers over Eurasia, northern Pacific, and northern Atlantic. However, the models tend to underestimate the number of blockings compared to MERRA and NCEPIDOE reanalysis, especially in western Siberia. Models also reproduced associated heat waves in terms of the shifting in the probability distribution function of near surface temperature. Seven out of eight models used in this study show that the frequency of atmospheric blocking over the Europe will likely decrease in a warmer climate, but slightly increase over the western Siberia. This spatial pattern resembles the blocking in the summer of 2010, indicating the possibility of more frequent occurrences of heat waves in western Siberia. In this talk, we will also

  11. Using dynamic N-mixture models to test cavity limitation on northern flying squirrel demographic parameters using experimental nest box supplementation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Priol, Pauline; Mazerolle, Marc J; Imbeau, Louis; Drapeau, Pierre; Trudeau, Caroline; Ramière, Jessica

    2014-06-01

    Dynamic N-mixture models have been recently developed to estimate demographic parameters of unmarked individuals while accounting for imperfect detection. We propose an application of the Dail and Madsen (2011: Biometrics, 67, 577-587) dynamic N-mixture model in a manipulative experiment using a before-after control-impact design (BACI). Specifically, we tested the hypothesis of cavity limitation of a cavity specialist species, the northern flying squirrel, using nest box supplementation on half of 56 trapping sites. Our main purpose was to evaluate the impact of an increase in cavity availability on flying squirrel population dynamics in deciduous stands in northwestern Québec with the dynamic N-mixture model. We compared abundance estimates from this recent approach with those from classic capture-mark-recapture models and generalized linear models. We compared apparent survival estimates with those from Cormack-Jolly-Seber (CJS) models. Average recruitment rate was 6 individuals per site after 4 years. Nevertheless, we found no effect of cavity supplementation on apparent survival and recruitment rates of flying squirrels. Contrary to our expectations, initial abundance was not affected by conifer basal area (food availability) and was negatively affected by snag basal area (cavity availability). Northern flying squirrel population dynamics are not influenced by cavity availability at our deciduous sites. Consequently, we suggest that this species should not be considered an indicator of old forest attributes in our study area, especially in view of apparent wide population fluctuations across years. Abundance estimates from N-mixture models were similar to those from capture-mark-recapture models, although the latter had greater precision. Generalized linear mixed models produced lower abundance estimates, but revealed the same relationship between abundance and snag basal area. Apparent survival estimates from N-mixture models were higher and less precise

  12. Concentration and dispersion characteristics of U, Au and Si in the granite area of northern Guangdong and Southern Jiangxi and their model experiments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu Zhengyi; Li Yongli; Chen Jinrong; Shen Chaiqing; Li Jun; Guo Xiuying

    1995-05-01

    On the basis of studying the concentration and dispersion characteristics of U, Au and Si in the granite area of Northern Guangdong and Southern Jiangxi in combination with the model experiments of magmatic and hydrothermal systems, the spatial distribution of U, Au and Si, the environment of the formation for U-productive and auriferous granitic bodies and migration characteristics of U, Au and Si during magmatic and hydrothermal stages, the relationship between uranium, gold and pyrite, are briefly described. The metallogenic prediction is also given. The research achievements provided important reference for the second-round U-prospecting in the South China and Au-prospecting in the U-productive areas. This approach of research method of self-proposing hypotheses combined with model experiments is first used in the research domain of uranium geology. (1 fig., 2 tabs.)

  13. Multivariate matrix model for source identification of inrush water: A case study from Renlou and Tongting coal mine in northern Anhui province, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Jun; Yao, Duoxi; Su, Yue

    2018-02-01

    Under the current situation of energy demand, coal is still one of the major energy sources in China for a certain period of time, so the task of coal mine safety production remains arduous. In order to identify the water source of the mine accurately, this article takes the example from Renlou and Tongting coal mines in the northern Anhui mining area. A total of 7 conventional water chemical indexes were selected, including Ca2+, Mg2+, Na++K+, Cl-, SO4 2-, HCO3 - and TDS, to establish a multivariate matrix model for the source identifying inrush water. The results show that the model is simple and is rarely limited by the quantity of water samples, and the recognition effect is ideal, which can be applied to the control and treatment for water inrush.

  14. Modes of interannual variability in northern hemisphere winter atmospheric circulation in CMIP5 models: evaluation, projection and role of external forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frederiksen, Carsten S.; Ying, Kairan; Grainger, Simon; Zheng, Xiaogu

    2018-04-01

    Models from the coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 (CMIP5) dataset are evaluated for their ability to simulate the dominant slow modes of interannual variability in the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation 500 hPa geopotential height in the twentieth century. A multi-model ensemble of the best 13 models has then been used to identify the leading modes of interannual variability in components related to (1) intraseasonal processes; (2) slowly-varying internal dynamics; and (3) the slowly-varying response to external changes in radiative forcing. Modes in the intraseasonal component are related to intraseasonal variability in the North Atlantic, North Pacific and North American, and Eurasian regions and are little affected by the larger radiative forcing of the Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario. The leading modes in the slow-internal component are related to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, Pacific North American or Tropical Northern Hemisphere teleconnection, the North Atlantic Oscillation, and the Western Pacific teleconnection pattern. While the structure of these slow-internal modes is little affected by the larger radiative forcing of the RCP8.5 scenario, their explained variance increases in the warmer climate. The leading mode in the slow-external component has a significant trend and is shown to be related predominantly to the climate change trend in the well mixed greenhouse gas concentration during the historical period. This mode is associated with increasing height in the 500 hPa pressure level. A secondary influence on this mode is the radiative forcing due to stratospheric aerosols associated with volcanic eruptions. The second slow-external mode is shown to be also related to radiative forcing due to stratospheric aerosols. Under RCP8.5 there is only one slow-external mode related to greenhouse gas forcing with a trend over four times the historical trend.

  15. Geomorphological analysis, monitoring and modeling of large rock avalanches in northern Chile (Iquique area) for regional hazard assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yugsi Molina, F. X.; Hermanns, R. L.; Crosta, G. B.; Dehls, J.; Sosio, R.; Sepúlveda, S. A.

    2012-04-01

    mapped characterized by well defined lateral levees and clear internal morphological features (ridges and furrows, hummocks). Rock avalanche run out simulations have been carried out to back analyze the sites using DAN 3D and a 3 m pixel resolution digital elevation model (DEM) obtained from stereoscopic Geoeye-1 images to assess parameters that controlled propagation mechanism and impact area extent of the events. The older lobes were dated by radiocarbon methods. Results indicate ages higher than 40,000 yr BP for the northern site. The second site could only be dated relatively with an underlying terrace that resulted older than the age limit of radiocarbon dating (43.500 yr BP). All the deposits are positioned well above (40-70 m) the present sea level rise, and at the reported uplift rates for the area, they could be associated to events older than some hundreds of thousand years. A more complete record of the failure history of the sites will be obtained when results of cosmogenic nuclides (CN) and luminescence dating will become available later this year. Several other smaller rock avalanches have been mapped in the study area. Satellite-based radar interferometry (InSAR) was performed using ERS-1 and ERS-2 scenes from 1995-2000 as well as ENVISAT ASAR scenes from 2004-2010. Both datasets show only small deformation in the area. This deformation includes sliding of small surficial slope deposits and subsidence apparently due to local groundwater withdrawal. No deformation of bedrock along the escarpment edge is observed. Results show that only major rock avalanches could reach the main access roads to Iquique and currently no large slope segments show signs of large displacement rates. Moreover, there is no strong correlation between M > 8 earthquakes return periods and age of the dated deposits, which implies that large rock avalanches could have been triggered by other factors. Hence, from a hazard and risk perspective, it is unlikely that large rock avalanches

  16. Comparison of Spheroidal Carbonaceous Particle Data with Modelled Atmospheric Black Carbon Concentration and Deposition and Air Mass Sources in Northern Europe, 1850–2010

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meri Ruppel

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Spheroidal carbonaceous particles (SCP are a well-defined fraction of black carbon (BC, produced only by the incomplete combustion of fossil fuels such as coal and oil. Their past concentrations have been studied using environmental archives, but, additionally, historical trends of BC concentration and deposition can be estimated by modelling. These models are based on BC emission inventories, but actual measurements of BC concentration and deposition play an essential role in their evaluation and validation. We use the chemistry transport model OsloCTM2 to model historical time series of BC concentration and deposition from energy and industrial sources and compare these to sedimentary measurements of SCPs obtained from lake sediments in Northern Europe from 1850 to 2010. To determine the origin of SCPs we generated back trajectories of air masses to the study sites. Generally, trends of SCP deposition and modelled results agree reasonably well, showing rapidly increasing values from 1950, to a peak in 1980, and a decrease towards the present. Empirical SCP data show differences in deposition magnitude between the sites that are not captured by the model but which may be explained by different air mass transport patterns. The results highlight the need for numerous observational records to reliably validate model results.

  17. Survival of brown trout during spring flood in DOC-rich streams in northern Sweden: the effect of present acid deposition and modelled pre-industrial water quality

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Laudon, Hjalmar; Poleo, Antonio B.S.; Voellestad, Leif Asbjoern; Bishop, Kevin

    2005-01-01

    Mortality and physiological responses in brown trout (Salmo trutta) were studied during spring snow melt in six streams in northern Sweden that differed in concentrations of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and pH declines. Data from these streams were used to create an empirical model for predicting fish responses (mortality and physiological disturbances) in DOC-rich streams using readily accessible water chemistry parameters. The results suggest that fish in these systems can tolerate higher acidity and inorganic aluminium levels than fish in low DOC streams. But even with the relatively low contemporary deposition load, anthropogenic deposition can cause fish mortality in the most acid-sensitive surface waters in northern Sweden during spring flood. However, the results suggests that it is only in streams with high levels of organically complexed aluminium in combination with a natural pH decline to below 5.0 during the spring where current sulphur deposition can cause irreversible damage to brown trout in the region. This study support earlier studies suggesting that DOC has an ameliorating effect on physiological disturbances in humic waters but the study also shows that surviving fish recover physiologically when the water quality returns to less toxic conditions following a toxic high flow period. The physiological response under natural, pre-industrial conditions was also estimated. - High levels of complexed aluminum, at pH levels below 5.0, predisposes brown trout to sulfur-caused damage in the spring

  18. Survival of brown trout during spring flood in DOC-rich streams in northern Sweden: the effect of present acid deposition and modelled pre-industrial water quality

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Laudon, Hjalmar [Department of Forest Ecology, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, SE-901 83 Umeaa (Sweden)]. E-mail: hjalmar.laudon@sek.slu.se; Poleo, Antonio B.S. [Department of Biology, University of Oslo, P.O. Box 1066 Blindern, N-0316 Oslo (Norway); Voellestad, Leif Asbjoern [Department of Biology, University of Oslo, P.O. Box 1066 Blindern, N-0316 Oslo (Norway); Bishop, Kevin [Department of Environmental Assessment, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, SE-750 07 Uppsala (Sweden)

    2005-05-01

    Mortality and physiological responses in brown trout (Salmo trutta) were studied during spring snow melt in six streams in northern Sweden that differed in concentrations of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and pH declines. Data from these streams were used to create an empirical model for predicting fish responses (mortality and physiological disturbances) in DOC-rich streams using readily accessible water chemistry parameters. The results suggest that fish in these systems can tolerate higher acidity and inorganic aluminium levels than fish in low DOC streams. But even with the relatively low contemporary deposition load, anthropogenic deposition can cause fish mortality in the most acid-sensitive surface waters in northern Sweden during spring flood. However, the results suggests that it is only in streams with high levels of organically complexed aluminium in combination with a natural pH decline to below 5.0 during the spring where current sulphur deposition can cause irreversible damage to brown trout in the region. This study support earlier studies suggesting that DOC has an ameliorating effect on physiological disturbances in humic waters but the study also shows that surviving fish recover physiologically when the water quality returns to less toxic conditions following a toxic high flow period. The physiological response under natural, pre-industrial conditions was also estimated. - High levels of complexed aluminum, at pH levels below 5.0, predisposes brown trout to sulfur-caused damage in the spring.

  19. Modeling interactions of soil hydrological dynamics and soil thermal and permafrost dynamics and their effects on carbon cycling in northern high latitudes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhuang, Q.; Tang, J.

    2008-12-01

    Large areas of northern high latitude ecosystems are underlain with permafrost. The warming temperature and fires deteriorate the stability of those permafrost, altering hydrological cycle, and consequently soil temperature and active layer depth. These changes will determine the fate of large carbon pools in soils and permafrost over the region. We developed a modeling framework of hydrology, permafrost, and biogeochemical dynamics based on our existing modules of these components. The framework was incorporated with a new snow dynamics module and the effects of soil moisture on soil thermal properties. The framework was tested for tundra and boreal forest ecosystems at field sites with respect to soil thermal and hydrological regimes in Alaska and was then applied to the whole Alaskan ecosystems for the period of 1923-2000 at a daily time step. Our two sets of simulations with and without considering soil moisture effects indicated that the soil temperature profile and active layer depth between two simulations are significant different. The differences of soil thermal regime would expect to result in different carbon dynamics. Next, we will verify the framework with the observed data of soil moisture and soil temperature at poor-drain, moderate-drain, and well-drain boreal forest sites in Alaska. With the verified framework, we will evaluate the effects of interactions of soil thermal and hydrological dynamics on carbon dynamics for the whole northern high latitudes.

  20. Unexpected spatial impact of treatment plant discharges induced by episodic hydrodynamic events: Modelling Lagrangian transport of fine particles by Northern Current intrusions in the bays of Marseille (France).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Millet, Bertrand; Pinazo, Christel; Banaru, Daniela; Pagès, Rémi; Guiart, Pierre; Pairaud, Ivane

    2018-01-01

    Our study highlights the Lagrangian transport of solid particles discharged at the Marseille Wastewater Treatment Plant (WWTP), located at Cortiou on the southern coastline. We focused on episodic situations characterized by a coastal circulation pattern induced by intrusion events of the Northern Current (NC) on the continental shelf, associated with SE wind regimes. We computed, using MARS3D-RHOMA and ICHTHYOP models, the particle trajectories from a patch of 5.104 passive and conservative fine particles released at the WWTP outlet, during 2 chosen representative periods of intrusion of the NC in June 2008 and in October 2011, associated with S-SE and E-SE winds, respectively. Unexpected results highlighted that the amount of particles reaching the vulnerable shorelines of both northern and southern bays accounted for 21.2% and 46.3% of the WWTP initial patch, in June 2008 and October 2011, respectively. Finally, a conceptual diagram is proposed to highlight the mechanisms of dispersion within the bays of Marseille of the fine particles released at the WWTP outlet that have long been underestimated.

  1. Multi-site calibration, validation, and sensitivity analysis of the MIKE SHE Model for a large watershed in northern China

    Science.gov (United States)

    S. Wang; Z. Zhang; G. Sun; P. Strauss; J. Guo; Y. Tang; A. Yao

    2012-01-01

    Model calibration is essential for hydrologic modeling of large watersheds in a heterogeneous mountain environment. Little guidance is available for model calibration protocols for distributed models that aim at capturing the spatial variability of hydrologic processes. This study used the physically-based distributed hydrologic model, MIKE SHE, to contrast a lumped...

  2. Ancient DNA from hunter-gatherer and farmer groups from Northern Spain supports a random dispersion model for the Neolithic expansion into Europe.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Montserrat Hervella

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The phenomenon of Neolithisation refers to the transition of prehistoric populations from a hunter-gatherer to an agro-pastoralist lifestyle. Traditionally, the spread of an agro-pastoralist economy into Europe has been framed within a dichotomy based either on an acculturation phenomenon or on a demic diffusion. However, the nature and speed of this transition is a matter of continuing scientific debate in archaeology, anthropology, and human population genetics. In the present study, we have analyzed the mitochondrial DNA diversity in hunter-gatherers and first farmers from Northern Spain, in relation to the debate surrounding the phenomenon of Neolithisation in Europe. METHODOLOGY/SIGNIFICANCE: Analysis of mitochondrial DNA was carried out on 54 individuals from Upper Paleolithic and Early Neolithic, which were recovered from nine archaeological sites from Northern Spain (Basque Country, Navarre and Cantabria. In addition, to take all necessary precautions to avoid contamination, different authentication criteria were applied in this study, including: DNA quantification, cloning, duplication (51% of the samples and replication of the results (43% of the samples by two independent laboratories. Statistical and multivariate analyses of the mitochondrial variability suggest that the genetic influence of Neolithisation did not spread uniformly throughout Europe, producing heterogeneous genetic consequences in different geographical regions, rejecting the traditional models that explain the Neolithisation in Europe. CONCLUSION: The differences detected in the mitochondrial DNA lineages of Neolithic groups studied so far (including these ones of this study suggest different genetic impact of Neolithic in Central Europe, Mediterranean Europe and the Cantabrian fringe. The genetic data obtained in this study provide support for a random dispersion model for Neolithic farmers. This random dispersion had a different

  3. Implications of climate change on winter road networks in Ontario's Far North and northern Manitoba, Canada, based on climate model projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hori, Y.; Cheng, V. Y. S.; Gough, W. A.

    2017-12-01

    A network of winter roads in northern Canada connects a number of remote First Nations communities to all-season roads and rails. The extent of the winter road networks depends on the geographic features, socio-economic activities, and the numbers of remote First Nations so that it differs among the provinces. The most extensive winter road networks below the 60th parallel south are located in Ontario and Manitoba, serving 32 and 18 communities respectively. In recent years, a warmer climate has resulted in a shorter winter road season and an increase in unreliable road conditions; thus, limiting access among remote communities. This study focused on examining the future freezing degree-days (FDDs) accumulations during the winter road season at selected locations throughout Ontario's Far North and northern Manitoba using recent climate model projections from the multi-model ensembles of General Circulation Models (GCMs) under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. First, the non-parametric Mann-Kendall correlation test and the Theil-Sen method were used to identify any statistically significant trends between FDDs and time for the base period (1981-2010). Second, future climate scenarios are developed for the study areas using statistical downscaling methods. This study also examined the lowest threshold of FDDs during the winter road construction in a future period. Our previous study established the lowest threshold of 380 FDDs, which derived from the relationship between the FDDs and the opening dates of James Bay Winter Road near the Hudson-James Bay coast. Thus, this study applied the threshold measure as a conservative estimate of the minimum threshold of FDDs to examine the effects of climate change on the winter road construction period.

  4. Vertical and horizontal resolution dependency in the model representation of tracer dispersion along the continental slope in the northern Gulf of Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bracco, Annalisa; Choi, Jun; Kurian, Jaison; Chang, Ping

    2018-02-01

    A set of nine regional ocean model simulations at various horizontal (from 1 to 9 km) and vertical (from 25 to 150 layers) resolutions with different vertical mixing parameterizations is carried out to examine the transport and mixing of a passive tracer released near the ocean bottom over the continental slope in the northern Gulf of Mexico. The release location is in proximity to the Deepwater Horizon oil well that ruptured in April 2010. Horizontal and diapycnal diffusivities are calculated and their dependence on the model set-up and on the representation of mesoscale and submesoscale circulations is discussed. Horizontal and vertical resolutions play a comparable role in determining the modeled horizontal diffusivities. Vertical resolution is key to a proper representation of passive tracer propagation and - in the case of the Gulf of Mexico - contributes to both confining the tracer along the continental slope and limiting its vertical spreading. The choice of the tracer advection scheme is also important, with positive definiteness in the tracer concentration being achieved at the price of spurious mixing across density surfaces. In all cases, however, the diapycnal mixing coefficient derived from the model simulations overestimates the observed value, indicating an area where model improvement is needed.

  5. GPS observations of coseismic deformation following the May 20 and 29, 2012, Emilia seismic events (northern Italy: data, analysis and preliminary models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Enrico Serpelloni

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available In May-July 2012, a seismic sequence struck a broad area of the Po Plain Region in northern Italy. The sequence included two Ml >5.5 mainshocks. The first one (Ml 5.9 occurred near the city of Finale Emilia (ca. 30 km west of Ferrara on May 20 at 02:03:53 (UTC, and the second (Ml 5.8 occurred on May 29 at 7:00:03 (UTC, about 12 km southwest of the May 20 mainshock (Figure 1, near the city of Mirandola. The seismic sequence involved an area that extended in an E-W direction for more than 50 km, and included seven Ml ≥5.0 events and more than 2,300 Ml >1.5 events (http://iside.rm.ingv.it. The focal mechanisms of the main events [Pondrelli et al. 2012, Scognamiglio et al. 2012, this volume] consistently showed compressional kinematics with E-W oriented reverse nodal planes. This sector of the Po Plain is known as a region characterized by slow deformation rates due to the northwards motion of the northern Apennines fold-and-thrust belt, which is buried beneath the sedimentary cover of the Po Plain [Picotti and Pazzaglia 2008, Toscani et al. 2009]. Early global positioning system (GPS measurements [Serpelloni et al. 2006] and the most recent updates [Devoti et al. 2011, Bennett et al. 2012] recognized that less than 2 mm/yr of SW-NE shortening are accommodated across this sector of the Po Plain, in agreement with other present-day stress indicators [Montone et al. 2012] and known active faults [Basili et al. 2008]. In the present study, we describe the GPS data used to study the coseismic deformation related to the May 20 and 29 mainshocks, and provide preliminary models of the two seismic sources, as inverted from consensus GPS coseismic deformation fields. […

  6. Atmospheric transport of persistent organic pollutants - development of a 3-d dynamical transport model covering the northern hemisphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, K. M.; Christensen, J. H.; Geels, C.; Frohn, L. M.; Brandt, J.

    2003-04-01

    The Danish Eulerian Hemispheric Model (DEHM) is a 3-D dynamical atmospheric transport model originally developed to describe the atmospheric transport of sulphur, lead, and mercury to the Arctic. The model has been validated carefully for these compounds. A new version of DEHM is currently being developed to describe the atmospheric transport of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) which are toxic, lipophilic and bio-accumulating compounds showing great persistence in the environment. The model has a horizontal resolution of 150 km x 150 km and 18 vertical layers, and it is driven by meteorological data from the numerical weather prediction model MM5V2. During environmental cycling POPs can be deposited and re-emitted several times before reaching a final destination. A description of the exchange processes between the land/ocean surfaces and the atmosphere is included in the model to account for this multi-hop transport. The present model version describes the atmospheric transport of the pesticide alpha-hexachlorocyclohexane (alpha-HCH). Other POPs may be included when proper data on emissions and physical-chemical parameters becomes available. The model-processes and the first model results are presented. The atmospheric transport of alpha-HCH for the 1990s is well described by the model.

  7. Incorporating microbial dormancy dynamics into soil decomposition models to improve quantification of soil carbon dynamics of northern temperate forests

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    He, Yujie [Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN (United States). Dept. of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences; Yang, Jinyan [Univ. of Georgia, Athens, GA (United States). Warnell School of Forestry and Natural Resources; Northeast Forestry Univ., Harbin (China). Center for Ecological Research; Zhuang, Qianlai [Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN (United States). Dept. of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences; Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN (United States). Dept. of Agronomy; Harden, Jennifer W. [U.S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA (United States); McGuire, Anthony D. [Alaska Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, U.S. Geological Survey, Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK (United States). U.S. Geological Survey, Alaska Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit; Liu, Yaling [Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN (United States). Dept. of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences; Wang, Gangsheng [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Climate Change Science Inst. and Environmental Sciences Division; Gu, Lianhong [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Environmental Sciences Division

    2015-11-20

    Soil carbon dynamics of terrestrial ecosystems play a significant role in the global carbon cycle. Microbial-based decomposition models have seen much growth recently for quantifying this role, yet dormancy as a common strategy used by microorganisms has not usually been represented and tested in these models against field observations. Here in this study we developed an explicit microbial-enzyme decomposition model and examined model performance with and without representation of microbial dormancy at six temperate forest sites of different forest types. We then extrapolated the model to global temperate forest ecosystems to investigate biogeochemical controls on soil heterotrophic respiration and microbial dormancy dynamics at different temporal-spatial scales. The dormancy model consistently produced better match with field-observed heterotrophic soil CO2 efflux (RH) than the no dormancy model. Our regional modeling results further indicated that models with dormancy were able to produce more realistic magnitude of microbial biomass (<2% of soil organic carbon) and soil RH (7.5 ± 2.4 PgCyr-1). Spatial correlation analysis showed that soil organic carbon content was the dominating factor (correlation coefficient = 0.4-0.6) in the simulated spatial pattern of soil RH with both models. In contrast to strong temporal and local controls of soil temperature and moisture on microbial dormancy, our modeling results showed that soil carbon-to-nitrogen ratio (C:N) was a major regulating factor at regional scales (correlation coefficient = -0.43 to -0.58), indicating scale-dependent biogeochemical controls on microbial dynamics. Our findings suggest that incorporating microbial dormancy could improve the realism of microbial-based decomposition models and enhance the integration of soil experiments and mechanistically based modeling.

  8. Incorporating microbial dormancy dynamics into soil decomposition models to improve quantification of soil carbon dynamics of northern temperate forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Yujie; Yang, Jinyan; Zhuang, Qianlai; Harden, Jennifer W.; McGuire, A. David; Liu, Yaling; Wang, Gangsheng; Gu, Lianhong

    2015-01-01

    Soil carbon dynamics of terrestrial ecosystems play a significant role in the global carbon cycle. Microbial-based decomposition models have seen much growth recently for quantifying this role, yet dormancy as a common strategy used by microorganisms has not usually been represented and tested in these models against field observations. Here we developed an explicit microbial-enzyme decomposition model and examined model performance with and without representation of microbial dormancy at six temperate forest sites of different forest types. We then extrapolated the model to global temperate forest ecosystems to investigate biogeochemical controls on soil heterotrophic respiration and microbial dormancy dynamics at different temporal-spatial scales. The dormancy model consistently produced better match with field-observed heterotrophic soil CO2 efflux (RH) than the no dormancy model. Our regional modeling results further indicated that models with dormancy were able to produce more realistic magnitude of microbial biomass (analysis showed that soil organic carbon content was the dominating factor (correlation coefficient = 0.4–0.6) in the simulated spatial pattern of soil RHwith both models. In contrast to strong temporal and local controls of soil temperature and moisture on microbial dormancy, our modeling results showed that soil carbon-to-nitrogen ratio (C:N) was a major regulating factor at regional scales (correlation coefficient = −0.43 to −0.58), indicating scale-dependent biogeochemical controls on microbial dynamics. Our findings suggest that incorporating microbial dormancy could improve the realism of microbial-based decomposition models and enhance the integration of soil experiments and mechanistically based modeling.

  9. Digital model of the seabed geomorphology of southern-central Espirito Santo basin and northern Campos basin; Modelo digital da geomorfologia do fundo oceanico do centro-sul da bacia do Espirito Santo e norte da bacia de Campos

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schreiner, Simone; Souza, Mariana Beatriz Ferraz Mendonca de; Migliorelli, Joana Paiva Robalo [Petroleo Brasileiro S. A. (PETROBRAS), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Unidade de Servicos de Exploracao e Producao], Emails: schreiner@petrobras.com.br, mbfms.fototerra@petrobras.com.br, joanamigli.fototerra@petrobras.com.br

    2009-05-15

    That communication brings the result of a bathymetric mosaic of converted in a digital model of the ocean topography, consisting of 17 seismic projects 3D, besides 17 multibeam bathymetry surveys of South-Central Espirito Santo Basin and Northern Campos Basin.

  10. Application of a bioeconomic model for supporting the management process of the small pelagic fishery in the Veneto Region, northern Adriatic Sea, Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Silvia Silvestri

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available We explore the sustainability of the small pelagics fishery in the northern Adriatic sea, northeastern Italy, by means of a bioeconomic simulation model. This model reproduces the biological and economic conditions in which the fisheries occur. Starting from an initial condition (2004, the simulation model incorporates the biological and economic processes of the resources and the fishing fleet and computes the most probable future trajectory of the system under different management conditions. We analysed the projection of selected indicators (biomass, recruitment, catches, profits under four different management scenarios based on effort control, and we assessed the performance of these management measures against the current situation. The four scenarios were: i increase in fuel price, ii reduction in fuel price, iii limiting the number of days at sea, and iv extending the fishing period. Each management event was introduced in the third year of the simulation. For each scenario a stochastic simulation was carried out. Our results show that the impact of each management measure tested was not homogeneous across the fleet. In particular, comparatively smaller vessels generally display narrower profit margins and tend to be more sensitive to negative shocks, reinforcing the idea that management measures should be calibrated by stratifying the fleet before implementation.

  11. Using Coupled Models to Study the Effects of River Discharge on Biogeochemical Cycling and Hypoxia in the Northern Gulf of Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Penta, Bradley; Ko, D.; Gould, Richard W.; Arnone, Robert A.; Greene, R.; Lehrter, J.; Hagy, James; Schaeffer, B.; Murrell, M.; Kurtz, J.; hide

    2009-01-01

    We describe emerging capabilities to understand physical processes and biogeoehemical cycles in coastal waters through the use of satellites, numerical models, and ship observations. Emerging capabilities provide significantly improved ability to model ecological systems and the impact of environmental management actions on them. The complex interaction of physical and biogeoehemical processes responsible for hypoxic events requires an integrated approach to research, monitoring, and modeling in order to fully define the processes leading to hypoxia. Our efforts characterizes the carbon cycle associated with river plumes and the export of organic matter and nutrients form coastal Louisiana wetlands and embayments in a spatially and temporally intensive manner previously not possible. Riverine nutrients clearly affect ecosystems in the northern Gulf of Mexico as evidenced in the occurrence of regional hypoxia events. Less known and largely unqualified is the export of organic matter and nutrients from the large areas of disappearing coastal wetlands and large embayments adjacent to the Louisiana Continental Shelf. This project provides new methods to track the river plume along the shelf and to estimate the rate of export of suspended inorganic and organic paniculate matter and dissolved organic matter form coastal habitats of south Louisiana.

  12. Mitigating Satellite-Based Fire Sampling Limitations in Deriving Biomass Burning Emission Rates: Application to WRF-Chem Model Over the Northern sub-Saharan African Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jun; Yue, Yun; Wang, Yi; Ichoku, Charles; Ellison, Luke; Zeng, Jing

    2018-01-01

    Largely used in several independent estimates of fire emissions, fire products based on MODIS sensors aboard the Terra and Aqua polar-orbiting satellites have a number of inherent limitations, including (a) inability to detect fires below clouds, (b) significant decrease of detection sensitivity at the edge of scan where pixel sizes are much larger than at nadir, and (c) gaps between adjacent swaths in tropical regions. To remedy these limitations, an empirical method is developed here and applied to correct fire emission estimates based on MODIS pixel level fire radiative power measurements and emission coefficients from the Fire Energetics and Emissions Research (FEER) biomass burning emission inventory. The analysis was performed for January 2010 over the northern sub-Saharan African region. Simulations from WRF-Chem model using original and adjusted emissions are compared with the aerosol optical depth (AOD) products from MODIS and AERONET as well as aerosol vertical profile from CALIOP data. The comparison confirmed an 30-50% improvement in the model simulation performance (in terms of correlation, bias, and spatial pattern of AOD with respect to observations) by the adjusted emissions that not only increases the original emission amount by a factor of two but also results in the spatially continuous estimates of instantaneous fire emissions at daily time scales. Such improvement cannot be achieved by simply scaling the original emission across the study domain. Even with this improvement, a factor of two underestimations still exists in the modeled AOD, which is within the current global fire emissions uncertainty envelope.

  13. Construction, calibration, and validation of the RBM10 water temperature model for the Trinity River, northern California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Edward C.; Perry, Russell W.; Risley, John C.; Som, Nicholas A.; Hetrick, Nicholas J.

    2016-03-31

    We constructed a one-dimensional daily averaged water-temperature model to simulate Trinity River temperatures for 1980–2013. The purpose of this model is to assess effects of water-management actions on water temperature and to provide water temperature inputs for a salmon population dynamics model. Simulated meteorological data, observed streamflow data, and observed water temperatures were used as model inputs to simulate a continuous 34-year time series of historical daily mean water temperature at eight locations along 112.2 river miles from Lewiston Dam near Weaverville, California, downstream to the Klamath River confluence. To demonstrate the utility of the model to inform management actions, we simulated three management alternatives to assess the effects of bypass flow augmentation in a drought year, 1994, and compared those results to the simulated historical baseline, referred to as the “No Action” alternative scenario. Augmentation flows from the Lewiston Dam bypass consist of temperature-controlled releases capable of cooling downstream water temperatures in hot times of the year, which can reduce the probability of disease outbreaks in fish populations. Outputs from the Trinity River water-temperature model were then used as inputs to an existing water-temperature model of the Klamath River to evaluate the effect of augmentation flow releases on water temperatures in the lower Klamath River. 

  14. Non-chemistry coupled PM10 modeling in Chiang Mai City, Northern Thailand: A fast operational approach for aerosol forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macatangay, Ronald; Bagtasa, Gerry; Sonkaew, Thiranan

    2017-09-01

    The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF v. 3.7) model was applied to model PM10 data in Chiang Mai city for 10-days during a high haze event utilizing updated land use categories from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). A higher resolution meteorological lateral boundary condition (from 1 degree to 0.25 degree) was also used from the NCEP GDAS/FNL Global Tropospheric Analyses and Forecast Grid system. A 3-category urban canopy model was also added and the Thompson aerosol-aware microphysics parameterization scheme was used to model the aerosol number concentrations that were later converted to PM10 concentrations. Aerosol number concentration monthly climatology was firstly used as initial and lateral boundary conditions to model PM10 concentrations. These were compared to surface data obtained from two stations of the Pollution Control Department (PCD) of Thailand. The results from the modeled PM10 concentrations could not capture the variability (r = 0.29; 0.27 for each site) and underestimated a high PM10 spike during the period studied. The authors then added satellite data to the aerosol climatology that improved the comparison with observations (r = 0.45; 43). However, both model runs still were not able to capture the high PM10 concentration event. This requires further investigation.

  15. Revenue Based Budgeting at VA Northern California Health Care System: A Model for Financially Aligning Organizational Incentives and Operations

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Stockwell, David

    1999-01-01

    .... In 1996 the Veterans Equitable Resource Allocation (VERA) model began to disperse the annual congressional appropriation based upon numbers of veterans seen within each of the integrated service networks (VISNs...

  16. Chemical Evolution of Groundwater Near a Sinkhole Lake, Northern Florida: 2. Chemical Patterns, Mass Transfer Modeling, and Rates of Mass Transfer Reactions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katz, Brian G.; Plummer, L. Niel; Busenberg, Eurybiades; Revesz, Kinga M.; Jones, Blair F.; Lee, Terrie M.

    1995-06-01

    Chemical patterns along evolutionary groundwater flow paths in silicate and carbonate aquifers were interpreted using solute tracers, carbon and sulfur isotopes, and mass balance reaction modeling for a complex hydrologic system involving groundwater inflow to and outflow from a sinkhole lake in northern Florida. Rates of dominant reactions along defined flow paths were estimated from modeled mass transfer and ages obtained from CFC-modeled recharge dates. Groundwater upgradient from Lake Barco remains oxic as it moves downward, reacting with silicate minerals in a system open to carbon dioxide (CO2), producing only small increases in dissolved species. Beneath and downgradient of Lake Barco the oxic groundwater mixes with lake water leakage in a highly reducing, silicate-carbonate mineral environment. A mixing model, developed for anoxic groundwater downgradient from the lake, accounted for the observed chemical and isotopic composition by combining different proportions of lake water leakage and infiltrating meteoric water. The evolution of major ion chemistry and the 13C isotopic composition of dissolved carbon species in groundwater downgradient from the lake can be explained by the aerobic oxidation of organic matter in the lake, anaerobic microbial oxidation of organic carbon, and incongruent dissolution of smectite minerals to kaolinite. The dominant process for the generation of methane was by the CO2 reduction pathway based on the isotopic composition of hydrogen (δ2H(CH4) = -186 to -234‰) and carbon (δ13C(CH4) = -65.7 to -72.3‰). Rates of microbial metabolism of organic matter, estimated from the mass transfer reaction models, ranged from 0.0047 to 0.039 mmol L-1 yr-1 for groundwater downgradient from the lake.

  17. Integrating the effects of salinity on the physiology of the eastern oyster, Crassostrea virginica, in the northern Gulf of Mexico through a Dynamic Energy Budget model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lavaud, Romain; LaPeyre, Megan K.; Casas, Sandra M.; Bacher, C.; La Peyre, Jerome F.

    2017-01-01

    We present a Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) model for the eastern oyster, Crassostrea virginica, which enables the inclusion of salinity as a third environmental variable, on top of the standard foodr and temperature variables. Salinity changes have various effects on the physiology of oysters, potentially altering filtration and respiration rates, and ultimately impacting growth, reproduction and mortality. We tested different hypotheses as to how to include these effects in a DEB model for C. virginica. Specifically, we tested two potential mechanisms to explain changes in oyster shell growth (cm), tissue dry weight (g) and gonad dry weight (g) when salinity moves away from the ideal range: 1) a negative effect on filtration rate and 2) an additional somatic maintenance cost. Comparative simulations of shell growth, dry tissue biomass and dry gonad weight in two monitored sites in coastal Louisiana experiencing salinity from 0 to 28 were statistically analyzed to determine the best hypothesis. Model parameters were estimated through the covariation method, using literature data and a set of specifically designed ecophysiological experiments. The model was validated through independent field studies in estuaries along the northern Gulf of Mexico. Our results suggest that salinity impacts C. virginica’s energy budget predominantly through effects on filtration rate. With an overwhelming number of environmental factors impacting organisms, and increasing exposure to novel and extreme conditions, the mechanistic nature of the DEB model with its ability to incorporate more than the standard food and temperature variables provides a powerful tool to verify hypotheses and predict individual organism performance across a range of conditions.

  18. Spatio-temporal variability of internal waves in the northern Gulf of Mexico studied with the Navy Coastal Ocean Model, NCOM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cambazoglu, M. K.; Jacobs, G. A.; Howden, S. D.; Book, J. W.; Arnone, R.; Soto Ramos, I. M.; Vandermeulen, R. A.; Greer, A. T.; Miles, T. N.

    2016-02-01

    Internal waves enhance mixing in the upper ocean, transport nutrients and plankton over the water column and across the shelf from deeper waters to shallower coastal areas, and could also transport pollutants such as hydrocarbons onshore during an oil spill event. This study aims to characterize internal waves in the northern Gulf of Mexico (nGoM) and investigate the possible generation and dissipation mechanisms using a high-resolution (1-km) application of the Navy Coastal Ocean Model (NCOM). Three dimensional model products are used to detect the propagation patterns of internal waves. The vertical structure of internal waves is studied and the role of stratification is analyzed by looking at the temperature, salinity and velocity variations along the water column. The model predictions suggest the generation of internal waves on the continental shelf, therefore the role of ocean bottom topography interacting with tides and general circulation features such as the Loop Current Eddy front, on the internal wave generation will be discussed. The time periods of internal wave occurrences are identified from model predictions and compared to satellite ocean color imagery. Further data analysis, e.g. Fourier analysis, is implemented to determine internal wavelengths and frequencies and to determine if the response of internal waves are at tidal periods or at different frequencies. The atmospheric forcing provided to NCOM and meteorological data records are analyzed to define the interaction between wind forcing and internal wave generation. Wavelet analysis characterizes the ocean response to atmospheric events with periodic frequencies. Ocean color satellite imagery was used to visualize the location of the Mississippi river plume (and other oceanic features) and compared to the model predictions because the enhanced stratification from freshwater plumes which propagate across the Mississippi Bight can provide favorable conditions in coastal waters for internal wave

  19. Investigation of climate change impact on water resources for an Alpine basin in northern Italy: implications for evapotranspiration modeling complexity.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giovanni Ravazzani

    Full Text Available Assessing the future effects of climate change on water availability requires an understanding of how precipitation and evapotranspiration rates will respond to changes in atmospheric forcing. Use of simplified hydrological models is required because of lack of meteorological forcings with the high space and time resolutions required to model hydrological processes in mountains river basins, and the necessity of reducing the computational costs. The main objective of this study was to quantify the differences between a simplified hydrological model, which uses only precipitation and temperature to compute the hydrological balance when simulating the impact of climate change, and an enhanced version of the model, which solves the energy balance to compute the actual evapotranspiration. For the meteorological forcing of future scenario, at-site bias-corrected time series based on two regional climate models were used. A quantile-based error-correction approach was used to downscale the regional climate model simulations to a point scale and to reduce its error characteristics. The study shows that a simple temperature-based approach for computing the evapotranspiration is sufficiently accurate for performing hydrological impact investigations of climate change for the Alpine river basin which was studied.

  20. Investigation of climate change impact on water resources for an Alpine basin in northern Italy: implications for evapotranspiration modeling complexity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ravazzani, Giovanni; Ghilardi, Matteo; Mendlik, Thomas; Gobiet, Andreas; Corbari, Chiara; Mancini, Marco

    2014-01-01

    Assessing the future effects of climate change on water availability requires an understanding of how precipitation and evapotranspiration rates will respond to changes in atmospheric forcing. Use of simplified hydrological models is required because of lack of meteorological forcings with the high space and time resolutions required to model hydrological processes in mountains river basins, and the necessity of reducing the computational costs. The main objective of this study was to quantify the differences between a simplified hydrological model, which uses only precipitation and temperature to compute the hydrological balance when simulating the impact of climate change, and an enhanced version of the model, which solves the energy balance to compute the actual evapotranspiration. For the meteorological forcing of future scenario, at-site bias-corrected time series based on two regional climate models were used. A quantile-based error-correction approach was used to downscale the regional climate model simulations to a point scale and to reduce its error characteristics. The study shows that a simple temperature-based approach for computing the evapotranspiration is sufficiently accurate for performing hydrological impact investigations of climate change for the Alpine river basin which was studied.

  1. A Semi-Analytic Model for Estimating Total Suspended Sediment Concentration in Turbid Coastal Waters of Northern Western Australia Using MODIS-Aqua 250 m Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Passang Dorji

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Knowledge of the concentration of total suspended sediment (TSS in coastal waters is of significance to marine environmental monitoring agencies to determine the turbidity of water that serve as a proxy to estimate the availability of light at depth for benthic habitats. TSS models applicable to data collected by satellite sensors can be used to determine TSS with reasonable accuracy and of adequate spatial and temporal resolution to be of use for coastal water quality monitoring. Thus, a study is presented here where we develop a semi-analytic sediment model (SASM applicable to any sensor with red and near infrared (NIR bands. The calibration and validation of the SASM using bootstrap and cross-validation methods showed that the SASM applied to Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS-Aqua band 1 data retrieved TSS with a root mean square error (RMSE and mean averaged relative error (MARE of 5.75 mg/L and 33.33% respectively. The application of the SASM over our study region using MODIS-Aqua band 1 data showed that the SASM can be used to monitor the on-going, post and pre-dredging activities and identify daily TSS anomalies that are caused by natural and anthropogenic processes in coastal waters of northern Western Australia.

  2. Direct observations of reactive atmospheric gases at ZOTTO station in the middle of Siberia as a base for large-scale modeling of atmospheric chemistry over Northern Eurasia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skorokhod, Andrey; Belikov, Igor; Shtabkin, Yury; Moiseenko, Konstantin; Pankratova, Natalia; Vasileva, Anastasia; Rakitin, Vadim; Heimann, Martin

    2015-04-01

    Direct observations of atmospheric air composition are very important for a comprehensive understanding of atmospheric chemistry over Northern Eurasia and its variability and trends driven by abrupt climatic and ecosystem changes and anthropogenic pressure. Atmospheric air composition (including greenhouse gases and aerosols), its trends and variability is still insufficiently known for most of the nearly uninhabited areas of Northern Eurasia. This limits the accuracy of both global and regional models, which simulate climatological and ecosystem changes in this highly important region. From that point of view, the Zotino Tall Tower Observatory (ZOTTO) in the middle of Siberia (near 60N, 90E), launched in 2006 and governed by a scientific international consortium plays an important role providing unique information about concentrations of greenhouse and reactive trace gases, as well as aerosols. Simulations of surface concentrations of O3, NOx and CO performed by global chemical-transport model GEOS-Chem using up-to-date anthropogenic and biogenic emissions databases show very good agreement with values observed at ZOTTO in 2007-2012. Observed concentration of ozone has a pronounced seasonal variation with a clear peak in spring (40-45 ppbv in average and up to 80 ppbv in extreme cases) and minimum in winter. Average ozone level is about 20 ppbv that corresponds to the background conditions. Enhanced concentration in March-July is due to increased stratospheric-tropospheric exchange. In autumn and winter distribution of ozone is close to uniform. NOx concentration does not exceed 1 ppb that is typical for background areas but may vary by order and some more in few hours. Higher surface NOx(=NO+NO2) concentrations during day time generally correspond to higher ozone when NO/NO2 ratio indicates on clean or slightly polluted conditions. CO surface concentration has a vivid seasonal course and varies from about 100 ppb in summer till 150 ppb in winter. But during

  3. Marine radionuclide transport in the northern North Atlantic estimated with an eddy-permitting ocean model - Marine radionuclide transport in the Northern North Atlantic estimated with an Eddy-resolving ocean model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Simonsen, Magne [Norwegian Meteorological institute, P.O. Box 43 Blindern, N-0313 Oslo (Norway); Norwegian University of Life Sciences, P.O. Box 5003, N-1432 Aas (Norway); Isachsen, Paal E.; Saetra, Oeyvind; Klein, Heiko; Bartnicki, Jerzy [Norwegian Meteorological institute, P.O. Box 43 Blindern, N-0313 Oslo (Norway); Salbu, Brit; Lind, Ole C. [Norwegian University of Life Sciences, P.O. Box 5003, N-1432 Aas (Norway)

    2014-07-01

    As a part of the Norwegian Centre for Environmental Radioactivity (CERAD), we have studied transport of radionuclides in the Nordic Seas using an eddy-resolving ocean model. Transport and dispersion is estimated by both Lagrangian (particle) and Eulerian (tracer) methods using currents generated by the Regional Ocean Model System (ROMS) at 4 km horizontal resolution. This relatively high resolution gives a more accurate description of the impact of macro-turbulent advection on transport paths and transport times than achieved in previous studies. The experiments cover historical discharges from the Sellafield reprocessing plant as well as hypothetical accident scenarios from power plants in Great Britain. For the historical Sellafield discharges, model calculations are compared to isotope concentrations observed along the Norwegian Coast and in the Barents Sea. For the accident scenarios, the likely impact on the Norwegian coastal zone is studied considering three different sources for the ocean: direct local discharge, far-field deposition from the atmosphere, and discharge via Norwegian rivers (via atmospheric deposition over land). (authors)

  4. A Stand-Class Growth and Yield Model for Mexico’s Northern Temperate, Mixed and Multiaged Forests

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Návar

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this research was to develop a stand-class growth and yield model based on the diameter growth dynamics of Pinus spp. and Quercus spp. of Mexico’s mixed temperate forests. Using a total of 2663 temporary, circular-sampling plots of 1000 m2 each, nine Weibull distribution techniques of parameter estimation were fitted to the diameter structures of pines and oaks. Statistical equations using stand attributes and the first three moments of the diameter distribution predicted and recovered the Weibull parameters. Using nearly 1200 and 100 harvested trees for pines and oaks, respectively, I developed the total height versus diameter at breast height relationship by fitting three non-linear functions. The Newnham model predicted stem taper and numerical integration was done to estimate merchantable timber volume for all trees in the stand for each diameter class. The independence of the diameter structures of pines and oaks was tested by regressing the Weibull parameters and projecting diameter structures. The model predicts diameter distributions transition from exponential (J inverse, logarithmic to well-balanced distributions with increasing mean stand diameter at breast height. Pine diameter distributions transition faster and the model predicts independent growth rates between pines and oaks. The stand-class growth and yield model must be completed with the diameter-age relationship for oaks in order to carry a full optimization procedure to find stand density and genera composition to maximize forest growth.

  5. A GPS Modeling Study of Earthquakes and Deformation in Northern Central America and along the Middle America Trench: 1999 to 2017

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellis, Andria P.

    Northern Central America is a tectonically complicated region prone to hazardous earthquakes due to the confluence of the Motagua-Polochic fault zone with the Middle America trench and strike-slip faults in the Central America volcanic arc. These three major fault zones converge at the western end of the Caribbean plate where the Cocos plate subducts under the North America and Caribbean plates. Literature from the 1970s and 1980s focused on whether a discrete North America-Caribbean-Cocos plate triple junction existed, and how the relative motions of the upper North America and Caribbean plates were accommodated. The discovery of a fourth major crustal block, the Central America forearc sliver, from seismic and geodetic observations made a three-plate triple junction geometrically impossible and introduced a new set of questions related to how deformation of the upper plate accommodates relative movements between the Caribbean plate, North America plate, and Central America forearc sliver where they intersect in the upper plate. My dissertation uses GPS and numerical modeling to measure and quantify earthquake transients and crustal deformation related to fault interactions in northern Central America and consists of three related chapters. The first chapter of my dissertation is a geodetic study of a M w = 7.4 subduction zone earthquake that occurred in 2012 offshore from our Guatemala GPS (Global Positioning System) network. For this study, I inverted coseismic site offsets and postseismic amplitudes to determine best-fitting coseismic and afterslip rupture distributions on the Middle America trench. I also determined the maximum likely viscoelastic deformation for the earthquake to test whether the transient postseismic deformation was dominated by fault afterslip or viscoelastic flow. This work was published in Geophysical Journal International in January 2015. The second chapter of my dissertation derives a new 200+ site GPS velocity field for northern

  6. Advancing the climate data driven crop-modeling studies in the dry areas of Northern Syria and Lebanon: An important first step for assessing impact of future climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dixit, Prakash N., E-mail: p.dixit@cgiar.org; Telleria, Roberto

    2015-04-01

    Inter-annual and seasonal variability in climatic parameters, most importantly rainfall, have potential to cause climate-induced risk in long-term crop production. Short-term field studies do not capture the full nature of such risk and the extent to which modifications to crop, soil and water management recommendations may be made to mitigate the extent of such risk. Crop modeling studies driven by long-term daily weather data can predict the impact of climate-induced risk on crop growth and yield however, the availability of long-term daily weather data can present serious constraints to the use of crop models. To tackle this constraint, two weather generators namely, LARS-WG and MarkSim, were evaluated in order to assess their capabilities of reproducing frequency distributions, means, variances, dry spell and wet chains of observed daily precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature, and solar radiation for the eight locations across cropping areas of Northern Syria and Lebanon. Further, the application of generated long-term daily weather data, with both weather generators, in simulating barley growth and yield was also evaluated. We found that overall LARS-WG performed better than MarkSim in generating daily weather parameters and in 50 years continuous simulation of barley growth and yield. Our findings suggest that LARS-WG does not necessarily require long-term e.g., > 30 years observed weather data for calibration as generated results proved to be satisfactory with > 10 years of observed data except in area with higher altitude. Evaluating these weather generators and the ability of generated weather data to perform long-term simulation of crop growth and yield is an important first step to assess the impact of future climate on yields, and to identify promising technologies to make agricultural systems more resilient in the given region. - Highlights: • LARS-WG performed better than MarkSim in generating daily weather parameters. • LARS-WG can serve

  7. Advancing the climate data driven crop-modeling studies in the dry areas of Northern Syria and Lebanon: An important first step for assessing impact of future climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dixit, Prakash N.; Telleria, Roberto

    2015-01-01

    Inter-annual and seasonal variability in climatic parameters, most importantly rainfall, have potential to cause climate-induced risk in long-term crop production. Short-term field studies do not capture the full nature of such risk and the extent to which modifications to crop, soil and water management recommendations may be made to mitigate the extent of such risk. Crop modeling studies driven by long-term daily weather data can predict the impact of climate-induced risk on crop growth and yield however, the availability of long-term daily weather data can present serious constraints to the use of crop models. To tackle this constraint, two weather generators namely, LARS-WG and MarkSim, were evaluated in order to assess their capabilities of reproducing frequency distributions, means, variances, dry spell and wet chains of observed daily precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature, and solar radiation for the eight locations across cropping areas of Northern Syria and Lebanon. Further, the application of generated long-term daily weather data, with both weather generators, in simulating barley growth and yield was also evaluated. We found that overall LARS-WG performed better than MarkSim in generating daily weather parameters and in 50 years continuous simulation of barley growth and yield. Our findings suggest that LARS-WG does not necessarily require long-term e.g., > 30 years observed weather data for calibration as generated results proved to be satisfactory with > 10 years of observed data except in area with higher altitude. Evaluating these weather generators and the ability of generated weather data to perform long-term simulation of crop growth and yield is an important first step to assess the impact of future climate on yields, and to identify promising technologies to make agricultural systems more resilient in the given region. - Highlights: • LARS-WG performed better than MarkSim in generating daily weather parameters. • LARS-WG can serve

  8. Role of erosion and isostasy in the Cordillera Blanca uplift: Insights from landscape evolution modeling (northern Peru, Andes)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Margirier, Audrey; Braun, Jean; Robert, Xavier; Audin, Laurence

    2018-03-01

    The processes driving uplift and exhumation of the highest Peruvian peaks (the Cordillera Blanca) are not well understood. Uplift and exhumation seem closely linked to the formation and movement on the Cordillera Blanca normal fault (CBNF) that delimits and shapes the western flank of the Cordillera Blanca. Several models have been proposed to explain the presence of this major normal fault in a compressional setting, but the CBNF and the Cordillera Blanca recent rapid uplift remain enigmatic. Whereas the Cordillera Blanca morphology demonstrates important erosion and thus a significant mass of rocks removal, the impact of erosion and isostasy on the evolution of the Cordillera Blanca uplift rates has never been explored. We address the role of erosion and associated flexural rebound in the uplift and exhumation of the Cordillera Blanca with numerical modeling of landscape evolution. We perform inversions of the broad features of the present-day topography, total exhumation and thermochronological data using a landscape evolution model (FastScape) to provide constraints on the erosion efficiency factor, the uplift rate and the temperature gradient. Our results evidence the not negligible contribution of erosion and associated flexural rebound to the uplift of the Cordillera Blanca and allow us to question the models previously proposed for the formation of the CBNF.

  9. Physically based dynamic run-out modelling for quantitative debris flow risk assessment: a case study in Tresenda, northern Italy

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Quan Luna, B.; Blahůt, Jan; Camera, C.; Van Westen, C.; Apuani, T.; Jetten, V.; Sterlacchini, S.

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 72, č. 3 (2014), s. 645-661 ISSN 1866-6280 Institutional support: RVO:67985891 Keywords : debris flow * FLO-2D * run-out * quantitative hazard and risk assessment * vulnerability * numerical modelling Subject RIV: DB - Geology ; Mineralogy Impact factor: 1.765, year: 2014

  10. Simulation of spring barley yield in different climatic zones of Northern and Central Europe. A comparison of nine crop models

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Rötter, R.P.; Palosuo, T.; Kersebaum, K. C.; Angulo, C.; Bindi, M.; Ewert, F.; Ferrise, R.; Hlavinka, P.; Moriondo, M.; Nendel, C.; Olesen, J. E.; Patil, R. H.; Ruget, F.; Takáč, J.; Trnka, Miroslav

    2012-01-01

    Roč. 133, July 2012 (2012), s. 23-36 ISSN 0378-4290 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) ED1.1.00/02.0073 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z60870520 Keywords : Climate * Crop growth simulation * Model comparison * Spring barley * Yield variability * Uncertainty Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 2.474, year: 2012

  11. Composition and Dynamics of Migratory and Resident Avian Population in Wintering Wetlands from Northern India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kaushalendra Kumar JHA

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Twelve wetlands occurring in four different ecozones in Uttar Pradesh (UP, India, were selected for studying the winter composition and dynamics of avian populations. Wetland information was collected from office records of the UP Forest department. Bird populations were estimated by transect method and block-in-flock-in-sector method for woodland and aquatic birds, respectively. Across the twelve selected wetlands a total of 486,182 individuals belonging to 161 species of birds on 15,592 ha were recorded during the winter of 2010-11. The data were analyzed to assess the relationship between wetland characteristics and avian populations. Aquatic vegetation, surrounding vegetation, water availability and climate were found as important factors related to avian populations. January was found to be the peak of bird assemblage, while winter times before and after January were the waxing and waning period, respectively. Species richness and species diversity of aquatic birds varied between 18-58 and 1.90-3.20, respectively, and of all bird species between 23-109, and 1.73-3.81, respectively. The density of aquatic birds ranged between 17-384 ha-1. The most common migratory birds in wetlands were Northern Pintail, Common Teal and Greylag Goose. Common resident birds included Asian Openbill, Darter, Little Egret, Common Coot, Little Cormorant, Grey Heron, Purple Heron, Indian Pond Heron, Common Moorhen, Purple Swamphen, Cattle Egret, Indian Sarus Crane and White-throated Kingfisher. For improved conservation of aquatic avian fauna, management prescriptions are suggested for wetlands under current management which could also be extended to other wetlands, whereas conservation of avian fauna to be the emphasis.

  12. Modelling runoff and glacier melt in the Hunza basin in northern Pakistan using satellite remote sensing techniques

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shafiq, M.

    2011-01-01

    The glaciers in western Karakoram are important for freshwater supply in the rivers of Pakistan. Global warming influences the future water supply from glaciers. In order to study the hydrological conditions and possible impacts of climate change, runoff simulations are performed for the Hunza basin. The hydrological modelling system SRM (Snowmelt Runoff Model) is customized and applied to the Hunza basin. Various data obtained from satellite remote sensing imagery and meteorological stations in the study area are processed, prepared and used as input to SRM. For runoff simulations the basin is divided into five sub-basins. The (sub-) basins are defined by the hydrological response units (HRU) based on the elevation zones and land-cover types. The spatially distributed data are aggregated HRU-wise as input for the model simulations. The energy available for snow and glacier melt is parameterized in SRM by degree day factors which are defined separately for seasonal snow, ice and debris covered glaciers. The model is calibrated for the Hunza basin using the meteorological and remote sensing data from years 2002 and 2003. The daily runoff is simulated and compared with the measured discharge data obtained from the power company. The Nash-Sutcliffe correlation coefficient of simulated versus measured runoff data is 0.87 for year 2002 and 0.96 for year 2003 which indicates a good agreement. An estimation of mass balance of Baltoro glacier is made using the meteorological data from Shigar station applying the hydrological method to estimate accumulation and melt. Based on these data is found that Baltoro glacier has slightly negative mass balance. The ablation rates of debris covered parts of Baltoro glacier at 4150 m elevation are estimated to be between 3 and 4 cm per day. However, the uncertainty in mass balance modelling is high due to poor knowledge of accumulation inferred by spatial extrapolation from station data.Keeping the glacier area unchanged, for the 2002

  13. Performance model to assist solar thermal power plant siting in northern Chile based on backup fuel consumption

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Larrain, Teresita; Escobar, Rodrigo; Vergara, Julio [Departamento de Ingenieria Mecanica y Metalurgica, Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile, Vicuna Mackenna 4860, Macul, Santiago (Chile)

    2010-08-15

    In response to environmental awareness, Chile introduced sustainability goals in its electricity law. Power producers must deliver 5% from renewable sources by 2010 and 10% by 2024. The Chilean desert has a large available surface with one of the highest radiation levels and clearest skies in the World. These factors imply that solar power is an option for this task. However, a commercial plant requires a fossil fuel system to backup the sunlight intermittency. The authors developed a thermodynamical model to estimate the backup fraction needed in a 100 MW hybrid -solar-fossil- parabolic trough power plant. This paper presents the model aiming to predicting the performance and exploring its usefulness in assisting site selection among four locations. Since solar radiation data are only available in a monthly average, we introduced two approaches to feed the model. One data set provided an average month with identical days throughout and the other one considered an artificial month of different daylight profiles on an hourly basis for the same monthly average. We recommend a best plant location based on minimum fossil fuel backup, contributing to optimal siting from the energy perspective. Utilities will refine their policy goals more closely when a precise solar energy data set becomes available. (author)

  14. Geospatial distribution modeling and determining suitability of groundwater quality for irrigation purpose using geospatial methods and water quality index (WQI) in Northern Ethiopia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gidey, Amanuel

    2018-06-01

    Determining suitability and vulnerability of groundwater quality for irrigation use is a key alarm and first aid for careful management of groundwater resources to diminish the impacts on irrigation. This study was conducted to determine the overall suitability of groundwater quality for irrigation use and to generate their spatial distribution maps in Elala catchment, Northern Ethiopia. Thirty-nine groundwater samples were collected to analyze and map the water quality variables. Atomic absorption spectrophotometer, ultraviolet spectrophotometer, titration and calculation methods were used for laboratory groundwater quality analysis. Arc GIS, geospatial analysis tools, semivariogram model types and interpolation methods were used to generate geospatial distribution maps. Twelve and eight water quality variables were used to produce weighted overlay and irrigation water quality index models, respectively. Root-mean-square error, mean square error, absolute square error, mean error, root-mean-square standardized error, measured values versus predicted values were used for cross-validation. The overall weighted overlay model result showed that 146 km2 areas are highly suitable, 135 km2 moderately suitable and 60 km2 area unsuitable for irrigation use. The result of irrigation water quality index confirms 10.26% with no restriction, 23.08% with low restriction, 20.51% with moderate restriction, 15.38% with high restriction and 30.76% with the severe restriction for irrigation use. GIS and irrigation water quality index are better methods for irrigation water resources management to achieve a full yield irrigation production to improve food security and to sustain it for a long period, to avoid the possibility of increasing environmental problems for the future generation.

  15. Sensitivity of mesoscale modeling of smoke direct radiative effect to the emission inventory: a case study in northern sub-Saharan African region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Feng; Wang, Jun; Yang, Zhifeng; Ge, Cui; Ichoku, Charles; Hyer, Edward J; Da Silva, Arlindo; Su, Shenjian; Zhang, Xiaoyang; Kondragunta, Shobha; Kaiser, Johannes W; Wiedinmyer, Christine

    2014-01-01

    An ensemble approach is used to examine the sensitivity of smoke loading and smoke direct radiative effect in the atmosphere to uncertainties in smoke emission estimates. Seven different fire emission inventories are applied independently to WRF-Chem model (v3.5) with the same model configuration (excluding dust and other emission sources) over the northern sub-Saharan African (NSSA) biomass-burning region. Results for November and February 2010 are analyzed, respectively representing the start and end of the biomass burning season in the study region. For February 2010, estimates of total smoke emission vary by a factor of 12, but only differences by factors of 7 or less are found in the simulated regional (15°W–42°E, 13°S–17°N) and monthly averages of column PM 2.5 loading, surface PM 2.5 concentration, aerosol optical depth (AOD), smoke radiative forcing at the top-of-atmosphere and at the surface, and air temperature at 2 m and at 700 hPa. The smaller differences in these simulated variables may reflect the atmospheric diffusion and deposition effects to dampen the large difference in smoke emissions that are highly concentrated in areas much smaller than the regional domain of the study. Indeed, at the local scale, large differences (up to a factor of 33) persist in simulated smoke-related variables and radiative effects including semi-direct effect. Similar results are also found for November 2010, despite differences in meteorology and fire activity. Hence, biomass burning emission uncertainties have a large influence on the reliability of model simulations of atmospheric aerosol loading, transport, and radiative impacts, and this influence is largest at local and hourly-to-daily scales. Accurate quantification of smoke effects on regional climate and air quality requires further reduction of emission uncertainties, particularly for regions of high fire concentrations such as NSSA. (paper)

  16. Trophic modeling of the Northern Humboldt Current Ecosystem, Part I: Comparing trophic linkages under La Niña and El Niño conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tam, Jorge; Taylor, Marc H.; Blaskovic, Verónica; Espinoza, Pepe; Michael Ballón, R.; Díaz, Erich; Wosnitza-Mendo, Claudia; Argüelles, Juan; Purca, Sara; Ayón, Patricia; Quipuzcoa, Luis; Gutiérrez, Dimitri; Goya, Elisa; Ochoa, Noemí; Wolff, Matthias

    2008-10-01

    The El Niño of 1997-98 was one of the strongest warming events of the past century; among many other effects, it impacted phytoplankton along the Peruvian coast by changing species composition and reducing biomass. While responses of the main fish resources to this natural perturbation are relatively well known, understanding the ecosystem response as a whole requires an ecotrophic multispecies approach. In this work, we construct trophic models of the Northern Humboldt Current Ecosystem (NHCE) and compare the La Niña (LN) years in 1995-96 with the El Niño (EN) years in 1997-98. The model area extends from 4°S-16°S and to 60 nm from the coast. The model consists of 32 functional groups of organisms and differs from previous trophic models of the Peruvian system through: (i) division of plankton into size classes to account for EN-associated changes and feeding preferences of small pelagic fish, (ii) increased division of demersal groups and separation of life history stages of hake, (iii) inclusion of mesopelagic fish, and (iv) incorporation of the jumbo squid ( Dosidicus gigas), which became abundant following EN. Results show that EN reduced the size and organization of energy flows of the NHCE, but the overall functioning (proportion of energy flows used for respiration, consumption by predators, detritus and export) of the ecosystem was maintained. The reduction of diatom biomass during EN forced omnivorous planktivorous fish to switch to a more zooplankton-dominated diet, raising their trophic level. Consequently, in the EN model the trophic level increased for several predatory groups (mackerel, other large pelagics, sea birds, pinnipeds) and for fishery catch. A high modeled biomass of macrozooplankton was needed to balance the consumption by planktivores, especially during EN condition when observed diatoms biomass diminished dramatically. Despite overall lower planktivorous fish catches, the higher primary production required-to-catch ratio implied a

  17. Long Term Subsidence Analysis and Soil Fracturing Zonation Based on InSAR Time Series Modelling in Northern Zona Metropolitana del Valle de Mexico

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriela Llanet Siles

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available In this study deformation processes in northern Zona Metropolitana del Valle de Mexico (ZMVM are evaluated by means of advanced multi-temporal interferometry. ERS and ENVISAT time series, covering approximately an 11-year period (between 1999 and 2010, were produced showing mainly linear subsidence behaviour for almost the entire area under study, but increasing rates that reach up to 285 mm/yr. Important non-linear deformation was identified in certain areas, presumably suggesting interaction between subsidence and other processes. Thus, a methodology for identification of probable fracturing zones based on discrimination and modelling of the non-linear (quadratic function component is presented. This component was mapped and temporal subsidence evolution profiles were constructed across areas where notable acceleration (maximum of 8 mm/yr2 or deceleration (maximum of −9 mm/yr2 is found. This methodology enables location of potential soil fractures that could impact relevant infrastructure such as the Tunel Emisor Oriente (TEO (along the structure rates exceed 200 mm/yr. Additionally, subsidence behaviour during wet and dry seasons is tackled in partially urbanized areas. This paper provides useful information for geological risk assessment in the area.

  18. Orthothermographies and 3D modeling as potential tools in ice caves studies: the Peña Castil Ice Cave (Picos de Europa, Northern Spain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fernando Berenguer-Sempere

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Currently there are many studies focused on the investigation of climatic and glaciological condition of ice caves. Here we present another way to address these studies, applying some methods already used in fields other than geomorphology. The versatility and accuracy provided by the use of modern topography and thermography techniques, using Terrestrial Laser Scanner and current thermographic cameras- and the creation of 3D thermographic models and orthothermographies derived from them - is shown to be a useful tool as it is difficult to obtain data from fieldwork and traditional methods used in caves. This paper presents the potential uses of combined TLS and thermographic techniques for monitoring some important climatological parameters in the sensitive periglacial environment of the Iberian Atlantic high mountains: Peña Castil Ice Cave (Picos de Europa, Northern Spain. A systematic application of such combined technologies to these kind of caves, is expected to contribute to a quantitative and concise characterization of the evolution of the ice as shown by the results of this study.

  19. Political violence and child adjustment in Northern Ireland: Testing pathways in a social-ecological model including single-and two-parent families.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cummings, E Mark; Schermerhorn, Alice C; Merrilees, Christine E; Goeke-Morey, Marcie C; Shirlow, Peter; Cairns, Ed

    2010-07-01

    Moving beyond simply documenting that political violence negatively impacts children, we tested a social-ecological hypothesis for relations between political violence and child outcomes. Participants were 700 mother-child (M = 12.1 years, SD = 1.8) dyads from 18 working-class, socially deprived areas in Belfast, Northern Ireland, including single- and two-parent families. Sectarian community violence was associated with elevated family conflict and children's reduced security about multiple aspects of their social environment (i.e., family, parent-child relations, and community), with links to child adjustment problems and reductions in prosocial behavior. By comparison, and consistent with expectations, links with negative family processes, child regulatory problems, and child outcomes were less consistent for nonsectarian community violence. Support was found for a social-ecological model for relations between political violence and child outcomes among both single- and two-parent families, with evidence that emotional security and adjustment problems were more negatively affected in single-parent families. The implications for understanding social ecologies of political violence and children's functioning are discussed.

  20. Effects of agriculture crop residue burning on aerosol properties and long-range transport over northern India: A study using satellite data and model simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vijayakumar, K.; Safai, P. D.; Devara, P. C. S.; Rao, S. Vijaya Bhaskara; Jayasankar, C. K.

    2016-09-01

    Agriculture crop residue burning in the tropics is a major source of the global atmospheric aerosols and monitoring their long-range transport is an important element in climate change studies. In this paper, we study the effects of agriculture crop residue burning on aerosol properties and long-range transport over northern India during a smoke event that occurred between 09 and 17 November 2013, with the help of satellite measurements and model simulation data. Satellite data observations on aerosol properties suggested transport of particles from agriculture crop residue burning in Indo-Gangetic Plains (IGP) over large regions. Additionally, ECMWF winds at 850 hPa have been used to trace the source, path and spatial extent of smoke events. Most of the smoke aerosols, during the study period, travel from a west-to-east pathway from the source-to-sink region. Furthermore, aerosol vertical profiles from CALIPSO show a layer of thick smoke extending from surface to an altitude of about 3 km. Smoke aerosols emitted from biomass burning activity from Punjab have been found to be a major contributor to the deterioration of local air quality over the NE Indian region due to their long range transport.

  1. Political violence and child adjustment in Northern Ireland: Testing pathways in a social ecological model including single and two-parent families

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cummings, E. Mark; Schermerhorn, Alice C.; Merrilees, Christine E.; Goeke-Morey, Marcie C.; Shirlow, Peter; Cairns, Ed

    2013-01-01

    Moving beyond simply documenting that political violence negatively impacts children, a social ecological hypothesis for relations between political violence and child outcomes was tested. Participants were 700 mother-child (M=12.1years, SD=1.8) dyads from 18 working class, socially deprived areas in Belfast, Northern Ireland, including single- and two-parent families. Sectarian community violence was associated with elevated family conflict and children’s reduced security about multiple aspects of their social environment (i.e., family, parent-child relations, and community), with links to child adjustment problems and reductions in prosocial behavior. By comparison, and consistent with expectations, links with negative family processes, child regulatory problems and child outcomes were less consistent for nonsectarian community violence. Support was found for a social ecological model for relations between political violence and child outcomes among both single and two parent families, with evidence that emotional security and adjustment problems were more negatively affected in single-parent families. The implications for understanding social ecologies of political violence and children’s functioning are discussed. PMID:20604605

  2. Numerical groundwater flow modeling of the northern river catchment of the Lake Tana, Upper Blue Basin, Ethiopia

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    Nigussie Ayehu Asrie

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The study area is found North Western plateau in the North Gondar zone, Amhara regional state, Ethiopia. Its total surface coverage is 1887km2.The study area boundary was delineated from 90m Shutter Radar Terrain Mapping (SRTM digital elevation model (DEM using Global Mapper 8 software. Based on geologic information of the study area, unconfined subsurface flow condition was considered and simulated using MODFLOW 2000. The model calibration accounts the matching of the 58 observation point with simulated head with a permissible residual head of ±10m. 75% of the difference the observed and measured water level head in the study area is 5m. . The model was calibrated with mean error 0.506, absolute mean error 4.431m and standard deviation 6.083m. Based on the calibration process, the model is very sensitive in decreasing order change in recharge, hydraulic conductivity, and stream bed conductance. The simulated out flow of the model is 205.7Mm3/year which is nearly equal to simulated inflow with difference 2,887.45m3/yr. The base flow simulated discharge Megech River holds 35.8% of the out flow. The river contributed as recharge in to the aquifer that accounts to 15.3% of the inflow. Steady state withdrawal rates were increased by 15%, 35%, 55%, 75% and 100% to study the response of the system in this scenario. From the simulation results, one can observe that the development of a new groundwater sources would not pose appreciable impact in case of 15% and 35% withdrawal the head declines in this case is insignificant relative to the steady state withdrawal rate and the natural discharges were not altered highly. The simulation result indicated that the stream leakage decreased by 7.9% relative to the whole steady state value, but showed 14.9% decrease for Angereb, Keha, and Shinta river segments near the well field area. The water tables decline by 3.6m to18.8m in head observation in the well field area. The steady state simulated recharge was

  3. Evaluation of the Performance of ClimGen and LARS-WG models in generating rainfall and temperature time series in rainfed research station of Sisab, Northern Khorasan

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    najmeh khalili

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Introduction:Many existing results on water and agriculture researches require long-term statistical climate data, while practically; the available collected data in synoptic stations are quite short. Therefore, the required daily climate data should be generated based on the limited available data. For this purpose, weather generators can be used to enlarge the data length. Among the common weather generators, two models are more common: LARS-WG and ClimGen. Different studies have shown that these two models have different results in different regions and climates. Therefore, the output results of these two methods should be validated based on the climate and weather conditions of the study region. Materials and Methods:The Sisab station is 35 KM away from Bojnord city in Northern Khorasan. This station was established in 1366 and afterwards, the meteorological data including precipitation data are regularly collected. Geographical coordination of this station is 37º 25׳ N and 57º 38׳ E, and the elevation is 1359 meter. The climate in this region is dry and cold under Emberge and semi-dry under Demarton Methods. In this research, LARG-WG model, version 5.5, and ClimGen model, version 4.4, were used to generate 500 data sample for precipitation and temperature time series. The performance of these two models, were evaluated using RMSE, MAE, and CD over the 30 years collected data and their corresponding generated data. Also, to compare the statistical similarity of the generated data with the collected data, t-student, F, and X2 tests were used. With these tests, the similarity of 16 statistical characteristics of the generated data and the collected data has been investigated in the level of confidence 95%. Results and Discussion:This study showed that LARS-WG model can better generate precipitation data in terms of statistical error criteria. RMSE and MAE for the generated data by LAR-WG were less than ClimGen model while the CD value of

  4. Documentation of a groundwater flow model developed to assess groundwater availability in the Northern Atlantic Coastal Plain aquifer system from Long Island, New York, to North Carolina

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    Masterson, John P.; Pope, Jason P.; Fienen, Michael N.; Monti, Jr., Jack; Nardi, Mark R.; Finkelstein, Jason S.

    2016-08-31

    The U.S. Geological Survey developed a groundwater flow model for the Northern Atlantic Coastal Plain aquifer system from Long Island, New York, to northeastern North Carolina as part of a detailed assessment of the groundwater availability of the area and included an evaluation of how these resources have changed over time from stresses related to human uses and climate trends. The assessment was necessary because of the substantial dependency on groundwater for agricultural, industrial, and municipal needs in this area.The three-dimensional, groundwater flow model developed for this investigation used the numerical code MODFLOW–NWT to represent changes in groundwater pumping and aquifer recharge from predevelopment (before 1900) to future conditions, from 1900 to 2058. The model was constructed using existing hydrogeologic and geospatial information to represent the aquifer system geometry, boundaries, and hydraulic properties of the 19 separate regional aquifers and confining units within the Northern Atlantic Coastal Plain aquifer system and was calibrated using an inverse modeling parameter-estimation (PEST) technique.The parameter estimation process was achieved through history matching, using observations of heads and flows for both steady-state and transient conditions. A total of 8,868 annual water-level observations from 644 wells from 1986 to 2008 were combined into 29 water-level observation groups that were chosen to focus the history matching on specific hydrogeologic units in geographic areas in which distinct geologic and hydrologic conditions were observed. In addition to absolute water-level elevations, the water-level differences between individual measurements were also included in the parameter estimation process to remove the systematic bias caused by missing hydrologic stresses prior to 1986. The total average residual of –1.7 feet was normally distributed for all head groups, indicating minimal bias. The average absolute residual value

  5. The Investigate Factors on Screening of the Breast Cancer Based on PEN-3 Model in Iranian Northern Women

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    Seyed Abolhassan Naghibi

    2015-09-01

    Materials and Methods: The present study was cross-sectional. The samples studied were women above 20 years and the sample size was 1416 people. The method of sampling was a random cluster. The tools of data collection questionnaire with 70 questions which approved its content validity and reliability. Data were analyzed by using software of SPSS Ver. 20. Results: The average age of samples was 35.71±6.1. Only 14.3% of samples are regularly conducted to the self-examination. Also, 38.5% of women had a history of the clinical examination. The difference of observed in performance the breast self-examination and clinical breast examination were the statistical significant by variables of rural or urban (P= 0.005, the marital status (P = 0.013 and a background of having breast cancer (P <0.001. The results of the study based on PEN-3 model were showed that there were a statistical significant relationship between the structure of perceptual factors and reinforcing factors (P=0.002 and between the perceptual factors and enabling factors (P=0.006. Conclusion: According to the results of presented, the women`s performance in using the screening was low. Also, the components status of the PEN-3 Model (factors of perceptual, enabling, and reinforcing for the breast cancer screening in women studied were not suitable.

  6. Intercomparison of Meteorological Forcing Data from Empirical and Mesoscale Model Sources in the N.F. American River Basin in northern California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wayand, N. E.; Hamlet, A. F.; Hughes, M. R.; Feld, S.; Lundquist, J. D.

    2012-12-01

    The data required to drive distributed hydrological models is significantly limited within mountainous terrain due to a scarcity of observations. This study evaluated three common configurations of forcing data: a) one low-elevation station, combined with empirical techniques, b) gridded output from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, and c) a combination of the two. Each configuration was evaluated within the heavily-instrumented North Fork American River Basin in northern California, during October-June 2000-2010. Simulations of streamflow and snowpack using the Distributed Hydrology Soil and Vegetation Model (DHSVM) highlighted precipitation and radiation as variables whose sources resulted in significant differences. The best source of precipitation data varied between years. On average, the performance of WRF and the single station distributed using the Parameter Regression on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM), were not significantly different. The average percent biases in simulated streamflow were 3.4% and 0.9%, for configurations a) and b) respectively, even though precipitation compared directly with gauge measurements was biased high by 6% and 17%, suggesting that gauge undercatch may explain part of the bias. Simulations of snowpack using empirically-estimated long-wave irradiance resulted in melt rates lower than those observed at high-elevation sites, while at lower-elevations the same forcing caused significant mid-winter melt that was not observed (Figure 1). These results highlight the complexity of how forcing data sources impact hydrology over different areas (high vs. low elevation snow) and different time-periods. Overall, results support the use of output from the WRF model over empirical techniques in regions with limited station data. FIG. 1. (a,b) Simulated SWE from DHSVM compared to observations at the Sierra Snow Lab (2100m) and Blue Canyon (1609m) during 2008 - 2009. Modeled (c,d) internal pack temperature, (e,f) downward

  7. Monitoring and modelling for landslide risk mitigation and reduction. The case study of San Benedetto Ullano (Northern Calabria - Italy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Terranova, Oreste G.; Greco, Venanzio R.; Gariano, Stefano L.; Pascale, Stefania; Rago, Valeria; Caloiero, Paola; Iovine, Giulio G. R.

    2016-04-01

    movements caused severe damage to roads and infrastructure. The second crisis ended up in late June: the hydrological model FLaIR was then successfully tested against the known dates of activation of the slope movement, by using a local rain series [3]. Meanwhile, technical support was being assured to the Municipality to optimize geological prospections, monitoring, and design of remedial works of a master plan. A third activation occurred during the night of 15 March 2013, when planned remedial works had not been completed yet. By applying the hydrological model SAKe [4, 5], this activation could be predicted, again permitting the prompt adoption of mitigation measures. Such activation was triggered by rains smaller and shorter than those that caused previous activations, perhaps indicating an apparent increasing fragility of the slope. Changes in slope stability conditions before and after the construction of the remedial works are being investigated. Critical rain conditions and groundwater levels for landslide activation are in fact expected to change, depending on combined effects of natural weakening vs. artificial strengthening. Monitoring will allow to quantitatively verify the new relationships between rainfall, groundwater and slope stability. References [1] Iovine G., Iaquinta P. & Terranova O. (2009). In Anderssen, Braddock & Newham (Eds.), Proc. 18th World IMACS Congr. and MODSIM09 Int. Congr. on Modelling and Simulation, pp. 2686-2693. [2] Iovine G., Lollino P., Gariano S.L. & Terranova O.G. (2010). NHESS, 10, 2341-2354. [3] Capparelli G., Iaquinta P., Iovine G., Terranova O.G. & Versace P. (2012). Natural Hazards, 61(1), pp.247-256. [4] Terranova O.G., Iaquinta P., Gariano S.L., Greco R. & Iovine G. (2013) In: Landslide Science and Practice, Margottini, Canuti, Sassa (Eds.), Vol. 3, pp.73-79. [5] Terranova O.G., Gariano S.L., Iaquinta P. & Iovine G.G.R. (2015). Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 1955-1978.

  8. Application of the Perceptual Factors, Enabling and Reinforcing Model on Pap Smaear Screening in Iranian Northern Woman

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    Abolhassan Naghibi

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Background and Purpose: Cervical cancer is the most prevalent cancer among women in the world. Cervical cancer is no symptoms and can be treated if diagnosed in the first stage of the disease. The aim of this study was to survey the affecting factors of the Pap smears test on perceptual factors, enabling and reinforcing (PEN-3 model constructs in women. Materials and Methods: This study was a descriptive cross-sectional study. The sample size was 416 married women with random sampling. The questionnaire had 50 questions based on PEN-3 model structures. Data were analyzed by descriptive statistics and logistic regression method in software SPSS 20. Results: The mean age of women was 32.70 ± 21.00 years. The knowledge of risk factors and screening methods for cervical cancer was 37.2. About 40% of women had a history of Pap smears. The most important of perception factors were effective, family history of the disease, encourage people to Pap smear, and fear of detecting of cervical cancer. The most important enabling factors were the presence of expert health personnel to provide training and Pap smear test (50.3%, lack of time and too busy to do Pap smear test (23.2%. The reinforcing factors were the media advice (41.3%, doctor’s advice (32.5% and neglect and forgetfulness (36.2%. Conclusion: This study has shown the Pap smear screening behavior affected by personal factors, family, cultural and economic. Application of PEN-3 can effective in planning and designing intervention programs for cervical cancer screening.

  9. Large Scale Earth's Bow Shock with Northern IMF as Simulated by PIC Code in Parallel with MHD Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baraka, Suleiman

    2016-06-01

    In this paper, we propose a 3D kinetic model (particle-in-cell, PIC) for the description of the large scale Earth's bow shock. The proposed version is stable and does not require huge or extensive computer resources. Because PIC simulations work with scaled plasma and field parameters, we also propose to validate our code by comparing its results with the available MHD simulations under same scaled solar wind (SW) and (IMF) conditions. We report new results from the two models. In both codes the Earth's bow shock position is found to be ≈14.8 R E along the Sun-Earth line, and ≈29 R E on the dusk side. Those findings are consistent with past in situ observations. Both simulations reproduce the theoretical jump conditions at the shock. However, the PIC code density and temperature distributions are inflated and slightly shifted sunward when compared to the MHD results. Kinetic electron motions and reflected ions upstream may cause this sunward shift. Species distributions in the foreshock region are depicted within the transition of the shock (measured ≈2 c/ ω pi for Θ Bn = 90° and M MS = 4.7) and in the downstream. The size of the foot jump in the magnetic field at the shock is measured to be (1.7 c/ ω pi ). In the foreshocked region, the thermal velocity is found equal to 213 km s-1 at 15 R E and is equal to 63 km s -1 at 12 R E (magnetosheath region). Despite the large cell size of the current version of the PIC code, it is powerful to retain macrostructure of planets magnetospheres in very short time, thus it can be used for pedagogical test purposes. It is also likely complementary with MHD to deepen our understanding of the large scale magnetosphere.

  10. Reorienting health services in the Northern Territory of Australia: a conceptual model for building health promotion capacity in the workforce.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Judd, Jenni; Keleher, Helen

    2013-06-01

    Reorienting work practices to include health promotion and prevention is complex and requires specific strategies and interventions. This paper presents original research that used 'real-world' practice to demonstrate that knowledge gathered from practice is relevant for the development of practice-based evidence. The paper shows how practitioners can inform and influence improvements in health promotion practice. Practitioner-informed evidence necessarily incorporates qualitative research to capture the richness of their reflective experiences. Using a participatory action research (PAR) approach, the research question asked 'what are the core dimensions of building health promotion capacity in a primary health care workforce in a real-world setting?' PAR is a method in which the researcher operates in full collaboration with members of the organisation being studied for the purposes of achieving some kind of change, in this case to increase the amount of health promotion and prevention practice within this community health setting. The PAR process involved six reflection and action cycles over two years. Data collection processes included: survey; in-depth interviews; a training intervention; observations of practice; workplace diaries; and two nominal groups. The listen/reflect/act process enabled lessons from practice to inform future capacity-building processes. This research strengthened and supported the development of health promotion to inform 'better health' practices through respectful change processes based on research, practitioner-informed evidence, and capacity-building strategies. A conceptual model for building health promotion capacity in the primary health care workforce was informed by the PAR processes and recognised the importance of the determinants approach. Practitioner-informed evidence is the missing link in the evidence debate and provides the links between evidence and its translation to practice. New models of health promotion service

  11. Advancing the climate data driven crop-modeling studies in the dry areas of Northern Syria and Lebanon: an important first step for assessing impact of future climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dixit, Prakash N; Telleria, Roberto

    2015-04-01

    Inter-annual and seasonal variability in climatic parameters, most importantly rainfall, have potential to cause climate-induced risk in long-term crop production. Short-term field studies do not capture the full nature of such risk and the extent to which modifications to crop, soil and water management recommendations may be made to mitigate the extent of such risk. Crop modeling studies driven by long-term daily weather data can predict the impact of climate-induced risk on crop growth and yield however, the availability of long-term daily weather data can present serious constraints to the use of crop models. To tackle this constraint, two weather generators namely, LARS-WG and MarkSim, were evaluated in order to assess their capabilities of reproducing frequency distributions, means, variances, dry spell and wet chains of observed daily precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature, and solar radiation for the eight locations across cropping areas of Northern Syria and Lebanon. Further, the application of generated long-term daily weather data, with both weather generators, in simulating barley growth and yield was also evaluated. We found that overall LARS-WG performed better than MarkSim in generating daily weather parameters and in 50 years continuous simulation of barley growth and yield. Our findings suggest that LARS-WG does not necessarily require long-term e.g., >30 years observed weather data for calibration as generated results proved to be satisfactory with >10 years of observed data except in area with higher altitude. Evaluating these weather generators and the ability of generated weather data to perform long-term simulation of crop growth and yield is an important first step to assess the impact of future climate on yields, and to identify promising technologies to make agricultural systems more resilient in the given region. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  12. Empirical and model-based estimates of spatial and temporal variations in net primary productivity in semi-arid grasslands of Northern China.

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    Shengwei Zhang

    Full Text Available Spatiotemporal variations in net primary productivity (NPP reflect the dynamics of water and carbon in the biosphere, and are often closely related to temperature and precipitation. We used the ecosystem model known as the Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach (CASA to estimate NPP of semiarid grassland in northern China counties between 2001 and 2013. Model estimates were strongly linearly correlated with observed values from different counties (slope = 0.76 (p < 0.001, intercept = 34.7 (p < 0.01, R2 = 0.67, RMSE = 35 g C·m-2·year-1, bias = -0.11 g C·m-2·year-1. We also quantified inter-annual changes in NPP over the 13-year study period. NPP varied between 141 and 313 g C·m-2·year-1, with a mean of 240 g C·m-2·year-1. NPP increased from west to east each year, and mean precipitation in each county was significantly positively correlated with NPP-annually, and in summer and autumn. Mean precipitation was positively related to NPP in spring, but not significantly so. Annual and summer temperatures were mostly negatively correlated with NPP, but temperature was positively correlated with spring and autumn NPP. Spatial correlation and partial correlation analyses at the pixel scale confirmed precipitation is a major driver of NPP. Temperature was negatively correlated with NPP in 99% of the regions at the annual scale, but after removing the effect of precipitation, temperature was positively correlated with the NPP in 77% of the regions. Our data show that temperature effects on production depend heavily on recent precipitation. Results reported here have significant and far-reaching implications for natural resource management, given the enormous size of these grasslands and the numbers of people dependent on them.

  13. High-Resolution Modeling of the Predictability of Convective Systems, and Influences by Absorbing Aerosols Over Northern India and the Himalayas Foothills During Boreal Summer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Kyu-Myong; Lau, William K.-M.; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Shi, Jainn; Tan, Qian; Chin, Mian; Matsui, Toshihisa; Bian, Huisheng

    2011-01-01

    The Himalayas foothills region (HFR) is an important component of the South Asian monsoon. To the south, the HFR borders the fertile, populous, and heavily polluted Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP). To the north, it rises to great height (approx. 4-5 km) to the Tibetan Plateau over a distance of less than 100 km. The HFR itself consists of complex mountainous terrain, with strong orographic forcing for precipitation. During the late spring and early summer, dust aerosol from the Thar and Middle East deserts , as well as moisture from the Arabian Sea were transported to the western part of the western part of the IGP and foothills spurs pre-monsoon severe thunderstorm over the region. During the monsoon season (mid June -August) convection from the Bay of Bengal, spread along the foothills northwestward to northern Pakistan. Recent climate model studies and preliminary observations have indicted not only the importance of dynamical forcing of precipitation in the HFR, but also possible strong impacts by the dense aerosols, from both local sources, and remote transport, that blanket the IGP from late spring up to the onset of the monsoon in June, and during monsoon breaks in July. In this work, we use the NASA Unified Weather Research and Forecasting (Nu-WRF) model to study the predictability ( 1-7 days) South Asian monsoon rainfall system. Results of 7 -day forecast experiments using an embedded domain of 27 km and 9 km resolution were conducted for the period June 11- July 15, 2008, with and without aerosol forcing are carried out to assess the intrinsic predictability of rainfall over the HFR, and possible impacts by aerosol direct effect, and possible connection of large-scale South Asian monsoon system.

  14. Rock- and Paleomagnetic Properties and Modeling of a Deep Crustal Volcanic System, the Reinfjord Ultramafic Complex, Seiland Igneous Province, Northern Norway

    Science.gov (United States)

    ter Maat, G. W.; Pastore, Z.; Michels, A.; Church, N. S.; McEnroe, S. A.; Larsen, R. B.

    2017-12-01

    The Reinfjord Ultramafic Complex is part of the 5000 km2 Seiland Igneous Province (SIP) in Northern Norway. The SIP is argued to be the deep-seated conduit system of a Large Igneous Province and was emplaced at 25-35 km depth in less than 10 Ma (570-560 Ma). The Reinfjord Ultramafic Complex was emplaced during three major successive events at 22-28km depth at pressures of 6-8kb, with associated temperatures 1450-1500°C (Roberts, 2006). The rocks are divided into three formations: the central series (CS) consisting of mainly dunites, upper layered series (ULS) consisting of dunites and wehrlites, a lower layered series (LLS) containing most pyroxene-rich rocks and a marginal zone (MZ) which formed where the ultramafic melts intruded the gabbro-norite and metasedimentary gneisses. Deep exposures such as the Reinfjord Ultramafic Complex are rare, therefore this study gives a unique insight in the rock magnetic properties of a deep ultramafic system. Localised serpentinised zones provide an opportunity to observe the effect of this alteration process on the magnetic properties of deep-seated rocks. Here, we present the results from the rock magnetic properties, a paleomagnetic study and combined potential-fields modeling. The study of the rock magnetic properties provides insight in primary processes associated with the intrusion, and later serpentinization. The paleomagnetic data yields two distinct directions. One direction corresponds to a Laurentia pole at ≈ 532 Ma while the other, though younger, is not yet fully understood. Rock magnetic properties were measured on > 700 specimens and used to constrain the modelling of gravity, high-resolution helicopter, and ground magnetic data. The intrusion is modelled as a cylindrically shaped complex with a dunite core surrounded by wehrlite and gabbro. The ultramafic part of the complex dips to the NE and its maximum vertical extent is modelled to 1400m. Furthermore, modelling allows estimation of relative volumes of

  15. ORCHIDEE-PEAT (revision 4596, a model for northern peatland CO2, water, and energy fluxes on daily to annual scales

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Qiu

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Peatlands store substantial amounts of carbon and are vulnerable to climate change. We present a modified version of the Organising Carbon and Hydrology In Dynamic Ecosystems (ORCHIDEE land surface model for simulating the hydrology, surface energy, and CO2 fluxes of peatlands on daily to annual timescales. The model includes a separate soil tile in each 0.5° grid cell, defined from a global peatland map and identified with peat-specific soil hydraulic properties. Runoff from non-peat vegetation within a grid cell containing a fraction of peat is routed to this peat soil tile, which maintains shallow water tables. The water table position separates oxic from anoxic decomposition. The model was evaluated against eddy-covariance (EC observations from 30 northern peatland sites, with the maximum rate of carboxylation (Vcmax being optimized at each site. Regarding short-term day-to-day variations, the model performance was good for gross primary production (GPP (r2 =  0.76; Nash–Sutcliffe modeling efficiency, MEF  =  0.76 and ecosystem respiration (ER, r2 =  0.78, MEF  =  0.75, with lesser accuracy for latent heat fluxes (LE, r2 =  0.42, MEF  =  0.14 and and net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE, r2 =  0.38, MEF  =  0.26. Seasonal variations in GPP, ER, NEE, and energy fluxes on monthly scales showed moderate to high r2 values (0.57–0.86. For spatial across-site gradients of annual mean GPP, ER, NEE, and LE, r2 values of 0.93, 0.89, 0.27, and 0.71 were achieved, respectively. Water table (WT variation was not well predicted (r2 < 0.1, likely due to the uncertain water input to the peat from surrounding areas. However, the poor performance of WT simulation did not greatly affect predictions of ER and NEE. We found a significant relationship between optimized Vcmax and latitude (temperature, which better reflects the spatial gradients of annual NEE than using an average Vcmax value.

  16. Daily Streamflow Predictions in an Ungauged Watershed in Northern California Using the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS): Calibration Challenges when nearby Gauged Watersheds are Hydrologically Dissimilar

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dhakal, A. S.; Adera, S.

    2017-12-01

    Accurate daily streamflow prediction in ungauged watersheds with sparse information is challenging. The ability of a hydrologic model calibrated using nearby gauged watersheds to predict streamflow accurately depends on hydrologic similarities between the gauged and ungauged watersheds. This study examines daily streamflow predictions using the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) for the largely ungauged San Antonio Creek watershed, a 96 km2 sub-watershed of the Alameda Creek watershed in Northern California. The process-based PRMS model is being used to improve the accuracy of recent San Antonio Creek streamflow predictions generated by two empirical methods. Although San Antonio Creek watershed is largely ungauged, daily streamflow data exists for hydrologic years (HY) 1913 - 1930. PRMS was calibrated for HY 1913 - 1930 using streamflow data, modern-day land use and PRISM precipitation distribution, and gauged precipitation and temperature data from a nearby watershed. The PRMS model was then used to generate daily streamflows for HY 1996-2013, during which the watershed was ungauged, and hydrologic responses were compared to two nearby gauged sub-watersheds of Alameda Creek. Finally, the PRMS-predicted daily flows between HY 1996-2013 were compared to the two empirically-predicted streamflow time series: (1) the reservoir mass balance method and (2) correlation of historical streamflows from 80 - 100 years ago between San Antonio Creek and a nearby sub-watershed located in Alameda Creek. While the mass balance approach using reservoir storage and transfers is helpful for estimating inflows to the reservoir, large discrepancies in daily streamflow estimation can arise. Similarly, correlation-based predicted daily flows which rely on a relationship from flows collected 80-100 years ago may not represent current watershed hydrologic conditions. This study aims to develop a method of streamflow prediction in the San Antonio Creek watershed by examining PRMS

  17. ORCHIDEE-PEAT (revision 4596), a model for northern peatland CO2, water, and energy fluxes on daily to annual scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qiu, Chunjing; Zhu, Dan; Ciais, Philippe; Guenet, Bertrand; Krinner, Gerhard; Peng, Shushi; Aurela, Mika; Bernhofer, Christian; Brümmer, Christian; Bret-Harte, Syndonia; Chu, Housen; Chen, Jiquan; Desai, Ankur R.; Dušek, Jiří; Euskirchen, Eugénie S.; Fortuniak, Krzysztof; Flanagan, Lawrence B.; Friborg, Thomas; Grygoruk, Mateusz; Gogo, Sébastien; Grünwald, Thomas; Hansen, Birger U.; Holl, David; Humphreys, Elyn; Hurkuck, Miriam; Kiely, Gerard; Klatt, Janina; Kutzbach, Lars; Largeron, Chloé; Laggoun-Défarge, Fatima; Lund, Magnus; Lafleur, Peter M.; Li, Xuefei; Mammarella, Ivan; Merbold, Lutz; Nilsson, Mats B.; Olejnik, Janusz; Ottosson-Löfvenius, Mikaell; Oechel, Walter; Parmentier, Frans-Jan W.; Peichl, Matthias; Pirk, Norbert; Peltola, Olli; Pawlak, Włodzimierz; Rasse, Daniel; Rinne, Janne; Shaver, Gaius; Schmid, Hans Peter; Sottocornola, Matteo; Steinbrecher, Rainer; Sachs, Torsten; Urbaniak, Marek; Zona, Donatella; Ziemblinska, Klaudia

    2018-02-01

    Peatlands store substantial amounts of carbon and are vulnerable to climate change. We present a modified version of the Organising Carbon and Hydrology In Dynamic Ecosystems (ORCHIDEE) land surface model for simulating the hydrology, surface energy, and CO2 fluxes of peatlands on daily to annual timescales. The model includes a separate soil tile in each 0.5° grid cell, defined from a global peatland map and identified with peat-specific soil hydraulic properties. Runoff from non-peat vegetation within a grid cell containing a fraction of peat is routed to this peat soil tile, which maintains shallow water tables. The water table position separates oxic from anoxic decomposition. The model was evaluated against eddy-covariance (EC) observations from 30 northern peatland sites, with the maximum rate of carboxylation (Vcmax) being optimized at each site. Regarding short-term day-to-day variations, the model performance was good for gross primary production (GPP) (r2 = 0.76; Nash-Sutcliffe modeling efficiency, MEF = 0.76) and ecosystem respiration (ER, r2 = 0.78, MEF = 0.75), with lesser accuracy for latent heat fluxes (LE, r2 = 0.42, MEF = 0.14) and and net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE, r2 = 0.38, MEF = 0.26). Seasonal variations in GPP, ER, NEE, and energy fluxes on monthly scales showed moderate to high r2 values (0.57-0.86). For spatial across-site gradients of annual mean GPP, ER, NEE, and LE, r2 values of 0.93, 0.89, 0.27, and 0.71 were achieved, respectively. Water table (WT) variation was not well predicted (r2 < 0.1), likely due to the uncertain water input to the peat from surrounding areas. However, the poor performance of WT simulation did not greatly affect predictions of ER and NEE. We found a significant relationship between optimized Vcmax and latitude (temperature), which better reflects the spatial gradients of annual NEE than using an average Vcmax value.

  18. Geophysical modeling of the northern Appalachian Brompton-Cameron, Central Maine, and Avalon terranes under the New Jersey Coastal Plain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maguire, T.J.; Sheridan, R.E.; Volkert, R.A.

    2004-01-01

    Falls and Chester domes and Chain Lakes-Pelham dome-Bronson Hill structural trends, and the synformal Connecticut Valley-Gaspe structural trend can be traced southwest into the New Jersey Coastal Plain basement. A Mesozoic rift basin, the "Sandy Hook basin", and associated eastern boundary fault is identified, based upon gravity modeling, in the vicinity of Sandy Hook, New Jersey. The thickness of the rift-basin sedimentary rocks contained within the "Sandy Hook basin" is approximately 4.7 km, with the basin extending offshore to the east of the New Jersey coast. Gravity modeling indicates a deep rift basin and the magnetic data indicates a shallow magnetic basement caused by magnetic diabase sills and/or basalt flows contained within the rift-basin sedimentary rocks. The igneous sills and/or flows may be the eastward continuation of the Watchung and Palisades bodies. ?? 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Application of individual behavioral models to predict willingness to use modern contraceptives among pastoralist women in Afar region, Northern Ethiopia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Znabu Hadush Kahsay

    Full Text Available Use of modern contraceptive methods reduces the risk of unwanted pregnancy, and is influenced by individual-level factors. Willingness to use modern contraceptive methods maybe a useful metric when considering health outcomes as it could predict health behaviors. Therefore, the current study aimed to assess the willingness of women to use modern contraceptives in Afar pastoralist communities.A community-based cross-sectional study was conducted from May 1 to 30, 2016. Three hundred forty-five women of childbearing age (15-49 years were systematically sampled with proportionate allocation from seven randomly selected kebeles (neighborhoods in Aballa District of Afar Region, Ethiopia. All women meeting the inclusion criteria in each selected household were interviewed at home using a semi-structured questionnaire. Construct validity was assured using factor analysis. A combination of individual behavioral models were applied in order to measure willingness to use modern contraceptive methods. Multiple logistic regressions were utilized to identify factors associated with willingness to use contraceptive at P-value of less than 0.05.Three hundred twenty-two women participated in the study, for a response rate of 93.3%. The mean age of respondents was 27 (±6 years. About one-third (N = 106, 32.9% of the participants reported that they were willing to use modern contraceptives. Orthodox Christians (AOR = 4.22, 95% CI 1.94-8.92, women aged 19 or older at first marriage (AOR = 2.89, 95% CI 1.16-7.23, and women who had never experienced a stillbirth (AOR = 3.85, 95%CI 1.37-10.78 were more likely to report being willing to use modern contraceptives. Additionally, perceived severity of an unwanted pregnancy (AOR = 1.71, 95% CI 1.57-1.93 and perceived self-efficacy to use contraceptives (AOR = 1.26, 95% CI 1.17-1.65 were positively associated with the willingness. Women who had never had an abortion were less likely to express willingness to use modern

  20. Application of individual behavioral models to predict willingness to use modern contraceptives among pastoralist women in Afar region, Northern Ethiopia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kahsay, Znabu Hadush; Tegegne, Dessie; Mohammed, Ebrahim; Kiros, Getachew

    2018-01-01

    Use of modern contraceptive methods reduces the risk of unwanted pregnancy, and is influenced by individual-level factors. Willingness to use modern contraceptive methods maybe a useful metric when considering health outcomes as it could predict health behaviors. Therefore, the current study aimed to assess the willingness of women to use modern contraceptives in Afar pastoralist communities. A community-based cross-sectional study was conducted from May 1 to 30, 2016. Three hundred forty-five women of childbearing age (15-49 years) were systematically sampled with proportionate allocation from seven randomly selected kebeles (neighborhoods) in Aballa District of Afar Region, Ethiopia. All women meeting the inclusion criteria in each selected household were interviewed at home using a semi-structured questionnaire. Construct validity was assured using factor analysis. A combination of individual behavioral models were applied in order to measure willingness to use modern contraceptive methods. Multiple logistic regressions were utilized to identify factors associated with willingness to use contraceptive at P-value of less than 0.05. Three hundred twenty-two women participated in the study, for a response rate of 93.3%. The mean age of respondents was 27 (±6) years. About one-third (N = 106, 32.9%) of the participants reported that they were willing to use modern contraceptives. Orthodox Christians (AOR = 4.22, 95% CI 1.94-8.92), women aged 19 or older at first marriage (AOR = 2.89, 95% CI 1.16-7.23), and women who had never experienced a stillbirth (AOR = 3.85, 95%CI 1.37-10.78) were more likely to report being willing to use modern contraceptives. Additionally, perceived severity of an unwanted pregnancy (AOR = 1.71, 95% CI 1.57-1.93) and perceived self-efficacy to use contraceptives (AOR = 1.26, 95% CI 1.17-1.65) were positively associated with the willingness. Women who had never had an abortion were less likely to express willingness to use modern

  1. Northern hemisphere storm tracks during the last glacial maximum in the PMIP2 ocean-atmosphere coupled models: energetic study, seasonal cycle, precipitation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Laine, A.; Kageyama, M.; Ramstein, G.; Peterschmitt, J.Y. [LSCE/IPSL, UMR CEA-CNRS-UVSQ 1572, CE Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette Cedex (France); Salas-Melia, D.; Voldoire, A.; Riviere, G.; Planton, S.; Tyteca, S. [CNRM-GAME, URA CNRS-Meteo-France 1357, Toulouse Cedex 01 (France)

    2009-04-15

    Mid-latitude eddies are an important component of the climatic system due to their role in transporting heat, moisture and momentum from the tropics to the poles, and also for the precipitation associated with their fronts, especially in winter. We study northern hemisphere storm-tracks at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and their influence on precipitation using ocean-atmosphere general circulation model (OAGCM) simulations from the second phase of the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP2). The difference with PMIP1 results in terms of sea-surface temperature forcing, fundamental for storm-track dynamics, is large, especially in the eastern North Atlantic where sea-ice extends less to the south in OAGCMs compared to atmospheric-only GCMs. Our analyses of the physics of the eddies are based on the equations of eddy energetics. All models simulate a consistent southeastward shift of the North Pacific storm-track in winter, related to a similar displacement of the jet stream, partly forced by the eddies themselves. Precipitation anomalies are consistent with storm-track changes, with a southeastward displacement of the North Pacific precipitation pattern. The common features of North Atlantic changes in the LGM simulations consist of a thinning of the storm-track in its western part and an amplification of synoptic activity to the southeast, in the region between the Azores Islands and the Iberian Peninsula, which reflects on precipitation. This southeastward extension is related to a similar displacement of the jet, partly forced by the eddies. In the western North Atlantic, the synoptic activity anomalies are at first order related to baroclinic generation term anomalies, but the mean-flow baroclinicity increase due to the presence of the Laurentide ice-sheet is partly balanced by a loss of eddy efficiency to convert energy from the mean flow. Moisture availability in this region is greatly reduced due to more advection of dry polar air by

  2. Conversion and comparison of the mathematical, three-dimensional, finite-difference, ground-water flow model to the modular, three-dimensional, finite-difference, ground-water flow model for the Tesuque aquifer system in northern New Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Umari, A.M.; Szeliga, T.L.

    1989-01-01

    The three-dimensional finite-difference groundwater model (using a mathematical groundwater flow code) of the Tesuque aquifer system in northern New Mexico was converted to run using the U.S. Geological Survey 's modular groundwater flow code. Results from the final versions of the predevelopment and 1947 to 2080 transient simulations of the two models are compared. A correlation coefficient of 0.9905 was obtained for the match in block-by-block head-dependent fluxes for predevelopment conditions. There are, however, significant differences in at least two specific cases. In the first case, a difference is associated with the net loss from the Pojoaque River and its tributaries to the aquifer. The net loss by the river is given as 1.134 cu ft/sec using the original groundwater model, which is 38.1% less than the net loss by the river of 1.8319 cu ft/sec computed in this study. In the second case, the large difference is computed for the transient decline in the hydraulic head of a model block near Tesuque Pueblo. The hydraulic-head decline by 2080 is, using the original model, 249 ft, which is 14.7% less than the hydraulic head of 292 ft computed by this study. In general, the differences between the two sets of results are not large enough to lead to different conclusions regarding the behavior of the system at steady state or when pumped. (USGS)

  3. Observations and modeling of air quality trends over 1990-2010 across the Northern Hemisphere: China, the United States and Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xing, J.; Mathur, R.; Pleim, J.; Hogrefe, C.; Gan, C.-M.; Wong, D. C.; Wei, C.; Gilliam, R.; Pouliot, G.

    2015-03-01

    Trends in air quality across the Northern Hemisphere over a 21-year period (1990-2010) were simulated using the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) multiscale chemical transport model driven by meteorology from Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) simulations and internally consistent historical emission inventories obtained from EDGAR. Thorough comparison with several ground observation networks mostly over Europe and North America was conducted to evaluate the model performance as well as the ability of CMAQ to reproduce the observed trends in air quality over the past 2 decades in three regions: eastern China, the continental United States and Europe. The model successfully reproduced the observed decreasing trends in SO2, NO2, 8 h O3 maxima, SO42- and elemental carbon (EC) in the US and Europe. However, the model fails to reproduce the decreasing trends in NO3- in the US, potentially pointing to uncertainties of NH3 emissions. The model failed to capture the 6-year trends of SO2 and NO2 in CN-API (China - Air Pollution Index) from 2005 to 2010, but reproduced the observed pattern of O3 trends shown in three World Data Centre for Greenhouse Gases (WDCGG) sites over eastern Asia. Due to the coarse spatial resolution employed in these calculations, predicted SO2 and NO2 concentrations are underestimated relative to all urban networks, i.e., US-AQS (US - Air Quality System; normalized mean bias (NMB) = -38% and -48%), EU-AIRBASE (European Air quality data Base; NMB = -18 and -54%) and CN-API (NMB = -36 and -68%). Conversely, at the rural network EU-EMEP (European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme), SO2 is overestimated (NMB from 4 to 150%) while NO2 is simulated well (NMB within ±15%) in all seasons. Correlations between simulated and observed O3 wintertime daily 8 h maxima (DM8) are poor compared to other seasons for all networks. Better correlation between simulated and observed SO42- was found compared to that for SO2. Underestimation of summer SO42- in

  4. Eutrophication study at the Panjiakou-Daheiting Reservoir system, northern Hebei Province, People's Republic of China: Chlorophyll-a model and sources of phosphorus and nitrogen

    Science.gov (United States)

    Domagalski, Joseph L.; Lin, Chao; Luo, Yang; Kang, Jie; Wang, Shaoming; Brown, Larry R.; Munn, Mark D.

    2007-01-01

    Concentrations, loads, and sources of nitrate and total phosphorus were investigated at the Panjiakou and Daheiting Reservoir system in northern Hebei Province, People's Republic of China. The Luan He River is the primary source of water to these reservoirs, and the upstream watershed has a mix of land uses including agriculture, forest, and one large urban center. The reservoirs have a primary use for storage of drinking water and partially supply Tianjin City with its annual needs. Secondary uses include flood control and aqua culture (fish cages). The response of the reservoir system from phosphorus input, with respect to chlorophyll-a production from algae, was fitted to a model of normalized phosphorus loading that regresses the average summer-time chlorophyll-a concentration to the average annual phosphorus concentration of the reservoir. Comparison of the normalized phosphorus loading and chlorophyll-a response of this system to other reservoirs throughout the world indicate a level of eutrophication that will require up to an approximate 5–10-fold decrease in annual phosphorus load to bring the system to a more acceptable level of algal productivity. Isotopes of nitrogen and oxygen in dissolved nitrate were measured from the headwater streams and at various locations along the major rivers that provide the majority of water to these reservoirs. Those isotopic measurements indicate that the sources of nitrate change from natural background in the rivers to animal manure and septic waste upstream of the reservoir. Although the isotopic measurements suggest that animal and septic wastes are a primary source of nutrients, measurements of the molar ratio of nitrogen to phosphorus are more indicative of row-cropping practices. Options for reduction of nutrient loads include changing the management practices of the aqua culture, installation of new sewage treatment systems in the large urbanized area of the upper watershed, and agricultural management practices

  5. Is the Kaiser Permanente model superior in terms of clinical integration?: a comparative study of Kaiser Permanente, Northern California and the Danish healthcare system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strandberg-Larsen, Martin; Schiøtz, Michaela L; Silver, Jeremy D; Frølich, Anne; Andersen, John S; Graetz, Ilana; Reed, Mary; Bellows, Jim; Krasnik, Allan; Rundall, Thomas; Hsu, John

    2010-04-08

    Integration of medical care across clinicians and settings could enhance the quality of care for patients. To date, there is limited data on the levels of integration in practice. Our objective was to compare primary care clinicians' perceptions of clinical integration and three sub-aspects in two healthcare systems: Kaiser Permanente, Northern California (KPNC) and the Danish healthcare system (DHS). Further, we examined the associations between specific organizational factors and clinical integration within each system. Comparable questionnaires were sent to a random sample of primary care clinicians in KPNC (n = 1103) and general practitioners in DHS (n = 700). Data were analysed using multiple logistic regression models. More clinicians in KPNC perceived to be part of a clinical integrated environment than did general practitioners in the DHS (OR = 3.06, 95% CI: 2.28, 4.12). Further, more KPNC clinicians reported timeliness of information transfer (OR = 2.25, 95% CI: 1.62, 3.13), agreement on roles and responsibilities (OR = 1.79, 95% CI: 1.30, 2.47) and established coordination mechanisms in place to ensure effective handoffs (OR = 6.80, 95% CI: 4.60, 10.06). None of the considered organizational factors in the sub-country analysis explained a substantial proportion of the variation in clinical integration. More primary care clinicians in KPNC reported clinical integration than did general practitioners in the DHS. Focused measures of clinical integration are needed to develop the field of clinical integration and to create the scientific foundation to guide managers searching for evidence based approaches.

  6. Towards understanding of the spatio-temporal composition of Terrestrial Water Storage variations in Northern Latitudes using a model-data fusion approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trautmann, Tina; Koirala, Sujan; Carvalhais, Nuno; Niemann, Christoph; Fink, Manfred; Jung, Martin

    2017-04-01

    Understanding variations in the terrestrial water storage (TWS) and its components is essential to gain insights into the dynamics of the hydrological cycle, and to assess temporal and spatial variations of water availability under global changes. We investigated spatio-temporal patterns of TWS variations and their composition in the humid regions of northern mid-to-high latitudes during 2001-2014 by using a simple hydrological model with few effective parameters. Compared to traditional modelling studies, our simple model was informed and constrained by multiple state-of-the-art earth observation products including TWS from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites (Wiese 2015), Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) from GlobSnow project (Loujous et al. 2014), evapotranspiration fluxes from eddy covariance measurements (Tramontana et al. 2016), and gridded runoff estimates for Europe (Gudmundsson & Seneviratne 2016). Thorough evaluation of model demonstrates that the model reproduces the observed patterns of hydrological fluxes and states well. The validated model results are then used to assess the contributions of snow pack, soil moisture and groundwater on the integrated TWS across spatial (local grid scale, spatially integrated) and temporal (seasonal, inter-annual) scales. Interestingly, our results show that TWS variations on different scales are dominated by different components. On both, seasonal and inter-annual time scales, the spatially integrated TWS signal mainly originates from dynamics of snow pack. On the local grid scale, mean seasonal TWS variations are driven by snow dynamics as well, whereas inter-annual variations are found to originate from soil moisture availability. Thus, we show that the determinants of TWS variations are scale-dependent, while coincidently underline the potential of model-data fusion techniques to gain insights into the complex hydrological system. References: Gudmundsson, L. and S. I. Seneviratne (2016

  7. Northern Dimension: Participant Strategies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Busygina Irina

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available This article is devoted to the “Northern Dimension” initiative of the EU which also includes North-West Russia, Norway and Iceland. It is noted that the “Northern Dimension” in the theoretical perspective can be considered as part of strategic multi-level interactions between member-states of the EU and Russia. On this basis, the authors analyze implications and effects of the strategic interdependence of all the EU-Russia relation levels.

  8. Northern Dimension: Participant Strategies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Busygina I.

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available his article is devoted to the “Northern Dimension” initiative of the EU which also includes North-West Russia, Norway and Iceland. It is noted that the “Northern Dimension” in the theoretical perspective can be considered as part of strategic multi-level interactions between member-states of the EU and Russia. On this basis, the authors analyze implications and effects of the strategic interdependence of all the EU-Russia relation levels.

  9. Describing and analysing primary health care system support for chronic illness care in Indigenous communities in Australia's Northern Territory – use of the Chronic Care Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stewart Allison

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Indigenous Australians experience disproportionately high prevalence of, and morbidity and mortality from chronic illness such as diabetes, renal disease and cardiovascular disease. Improving the understanding of how Indigenous primary care systems are organised to deliver chronic illness care will inform efforts to improve the quality of care for Indigenous people. Methods This cross-sectional study was conducted in 12 Indigenous communities in Australia's Northern Territory. Using the Chronic Care Model as a framework, we carried out a mail-out survey to collect information on material, financial and human resources relating to chronic illness care in participating health centres. Follow up face-to-face interviews with health centre staff were conducted to identify successes and difficulties in the systems in relation to providing chronic illness care to community members. Results Participating health centres had distinct areas of strength and weakness in each component of systems: 1 organisational influence – strengthened by inclusion of chronic illness goals in business plans, appointment of designated chronic disease coordinators and introduction of external clinical audits, but weakened by lack of training in disease prevention and health promotion and limited access to Medicare funding; 2 community linkages – facilitated by working together with community organisations (e.g. local stores and running community-based programs (e.g. "health week", but detracted by a shortage of staff especially of Aboriginal health workers working in the community; 3 self management – promoted through patient education and goal setting with clients, but impeded by limited focus on family and community-based activities due to understaffing; 4 decision support – facilitated by distribution of clinical guidelines and their integration with daily care, but limited by inadequate access to and support from specialists; 5 delivery system

  10. Comparison of bio-physical marine products from SeaWiFS, MODIS and a bio-optical model with in situ measurements from Northern European waters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blondeau-Patissier, D.; Tilstone, G. H.; Martinez-Vicente, V.; Moore, G. F.

    2004-09-01

    In this paper, we compare bio-physical marine products from SeaWiFS, MODIS and a novel bio-optical absorption model with in situ measurements of chlorophyll-a (Chla) concentrations, total suspended material (TSM) concentrations, normalized water-leaving radiances (nLw) and absorption coefficients of coloured dissolved organic matter (aCDOM), total particulate (atotal) and phytoplankton (aphy) for 26 satellite match-ups in three Northern European seas. Cruises were undertaken in 2002 and 2003 in phytoplankton dominated open ocean waters of the Celtic Sea and optically complex waters of the Western English Channel (WEC) and North Sea. For all environments, Chla concentrations varied from 0.4 to 7.8 mg m-3, TSM from 0.2 to 6.0 mg l-1 and aCDOM at 440 nm from 0.02 to 0.30 m-1. SeaWiFS OC4v4, with the Remote Sensing Data Analysis Service (RSDAS) atmospheric correction for turbid waters, showed the most accurate retrieval of in situ Chla (RMS = 0.24; n = 26), followed by MODIS chlor_a_3 (RMS = 0.40; n = 26). This suggested that improving the atmospheric correction over optically complex waters results in more accurate Chla concentrations compared to those obtained using more complicated Chla algorithms. We found that the SeaWiFS OC4v4 and the MODIS chlor_a_2 switching band ratio algorithms, which mainly use longer wavebands than 443 nm, were less affected by CDOM. They were both more accurate than chlor_MODIS in the higher CDOM waters of the North Sea. Compared to MODIS the absorption model was better at retrieving atotal (RMS = 0.39; n = 78) and aCDOM (RMS = 0.79; n = 12) in all study areas and TSM in the WEC (RMS = 0.04; n = 10) but it underestimated Chla concentrations (RMS = 0.45; n = 26). The results are discussed in terms of atmospheric correction, sensor characteristics and the functioning and performance of Chla algorithms. This paper was presented at the Institute of Physics Meeting on Underwater Optics held during Photonex 03 at Warwick, UK, in October 2003

  11. Tree survey and allometric models for tiger bush in northern Senegal and comparison with tree parameters derived from high resolution satellite data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Mads Olander; Goettsche, Frank-M.; Diop, Doudou

    2011-01-01

    A tree survey and an analysis of high resolution satellite data were performed to characterise the woody vegetation within a 10 x 10 km(2) area around a site located close to the town of Dahra in the semiarid northern part of Senegal. The surveyed parameters were tree species, height, tree crown...

  12. Political Violence and Child Adjustment in Northern Ireland: Testing Pathways in a Social-Ecological Model Including Single- and Two-Parent Families

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cummings, E. Mark; Schermerhorn, Alice C.; Merrilees, Christine E.; Goeke-Morey, Marcie C.; Shirlow, Peter; Cairns, Ed

    2010-01-01

    Moving beyond simply documenting that political violence negatively impacts children, we tested a social-ecological hypothesis for relations between political violence and child outcomes. Participants were 700 mother-child (M = 12.1 years, SD = 1.8) dyads from 18 working-class, socially deprived areas in Belfast, Northern Ireland, including…

  13. Rio Grande transboundary integrated hydrologic model and water-availability analysis, New Mexico and Texas, United States, and Northern Chihuahua, Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanson, Randall T.; Ritchie, Andre; Boyce, Scott E.; Ferguson, Ian; Galanter, Amy; Flint, Lorraine E.; Henson, Wesley

    2018-05-31

    , and northern part of the Conejos-Médanos Basin, with the entire region referred to as the “Transboundary Rio Grande” or TRG. These tools provide a means to understand hydrologic system response to the evolution of water use in the region, its availability, and potential operational constraints of the RGP.The conceptual model identified surface-water and groundwater inflows and outflows that included the movement and use of water both in natural and in anthropogenic systems. The groundwater-flow system is characterized by a layered geologic sedimentary sequence combined with the effects of groundwater pumping, operation of the RGP, natural runoff and recharge, and the application of irrigation water at the land surface that is captured and reused in an extensive network of canals and drains as part of the conjunctive use of water in the region.Historical groundwater-level fluctuations followed a cyclic pattern that were aligned with climate cycles, which collectively resulted in alternating periods of wet or dry years. Periods of drought that persisted for one or more years are associated with low surface-water availability that resulted in higher rates of groundwater-level decline. Rates of groundwater-level decline also increased during periods of agricultural intensification, which necessitated increasing use of groundwater as a source of irrigation water. Agriculture in the area was initially dominated by alfalfa and cotton, but since 1970 more water-intensive pecan orchards and vegetable production have become more common. Groundwater levels substantially declined in subregions where drier climate combined with increased demand, resulting in periods of reduced streamflows.Most of the groundwater was recharged in the Rio Grande Valley floor, and most of the pumpage and aquifer storage depletion was in Mesilla Basin agricultural subregions. A cyclic imbalance between inflows and outflows resulted in the modeled cyclic depletion (groundwater withdrawals in

  14. Regional groundwater-flow model of the Redwall-Muav, Coconino, and alluvial basin aquifer systems of northern and central Arizona

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pool, D.R.; Blasch, Kyle W.; Callegary, James B.; Leake, Stanley A.; Graser, Leslie F.

    2011-01-01

    A numerical flow model (MODFLOW) of the groundwater flow system in the primary aquifers in northern Arizona was developed to simulate interactions between the aquifers, perennial streams, and springs for predevelopment and transient conditions during 1910 through 2005. Simulated aquifers include the Redwall-Muav, Coconino, and basin-fill aquifers. Perennial stream reaches and springs that derive base flow from the aquifers were simulated, including the Colorado River, Little Colorado River, Salt River, Verde River, and perennial reaches of tributary streams. Simulated major springs include Blue Spring, Del Rio Springs, Havasu Springs, Verde River headwater springs, several springs that discharge adjacent to major Verde River tributaries, and many springs that discharge to the Colorado River. Estimates of aquifer hydraulic properties and groundwater budgets were developed from published reports and groundwater-flow models. Spatial extents of aquifers and confining units were developed from geologic data, geophysical models, a groundwater-flow model for the Prescott Active Management Area, drill logs, geologic logs, and geophysical logs. Spatial and temporal distributions of natural recharge were developed by using a water-balance model that estimates recharge from direct infiltration. Additional natural recharge from ephemeral channel infiltration was simulated in alluvial basins. Recharge at wastewater treatment facilities and incidental recharge at agricultural fields and golf courses were also simulated. Estimates of predevelopment rates of groundwater discharge to streams, springs, and evapotranspiration by phreatophytes were derived from previous reports and on the basis of streamflow records at gages. Annual estimates of groundwater withdrawals for agriculture, municipal, industrial, and domestic uses were developed from several sources, including reported withdrawals for nonexempt wells, estimated crop requirements for agricultural wells, and estimated per

  15. Geothermal conditions in Northern Switzerland

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rybach, L.; Eugster, W.; Griesser, J.C.

    1987-01-01

    The geothermal field in northern Switzerland, derived from a great number of borehole temperature measurements, is characterized by a strongly positive temperature gradient and heat flow anomaly (>150 mW/m 2 ) in the lower Aare valley. The anomaly is centered above the recently discovered Permocarboniferous trough. Several possibilities to explain the anomaly (thermal disturbance in the mantle, cooling shallow intrusion, locally strong uplift/erosion, local contrasts in petrophysical properties) can be ruled out on the basis of model calculations. Uprising deep groundwater is favoured as the mechanism creating the observed anomaly. Deep groundwater circulation was investigated in detail, especially to clarify the hydraulic role of the Permocarboniferous trough, by coupled thermo-hydraulic modelling, using the integrated finite difference technique. The model was carefully validated by field data. The results reveal the draining effect of the Permocarboniferous trough and indicate that vertical permeability is present in the vicinity of the trough even at depths of several kilometers. They further imply that large parts of the crystalline basement in northern Switzerland have average hydraulic conductivities >10 -9 m/sec and that Darcy velocities in the order of 10 mm/year must be expected. (author) 24 refs., 4 figs., 1 tab

  16. The Maritime Cultural Landscape of Northern Patagonia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lira, Nicolás

    2017-12-01

    This article is a contribution to the study of the indigenous navigation and its boats in the region of northern Patagonia. This article also aims to contribute to the understanding of indigenous navigation practices and technologies and their origins from prehistoric times to the mid-twentieth century. It presents and discusses the concept of Westerdahl's Maritime Cultural Landscape in relation to other landscape concepts. This model is applied to northern Patagonia in order to discuss if it is possible to speak of a true maritime culture in the region. For this purpose, archaeological, historical and ethnographic data are presented in an integrative and innovative methodology for the discipline. Finally, the Maritime Cultural Landscape model will allow the integration of aquatic and terrestrial landscapes as routes traveled by native inhabitants of northern Patagonia and southern Chile, and propose an important and diversified maritime, river and lake tradition.

  17. Northern Ireland gas industry

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anderson, R S [Belfast City Council Gas Dept.; Asquith, R S; Brown, J M; McKay, G

    1977-07-01

    Throughout Northern Ireland the production of town gas is derived from hydrocarbon feedstocks. In the larger undertakings in Northern Ireland the feedstock is light distillate; a light petroleum feedstock which is a crude gasoline comprised mainly of pentanes, reformed in catalytic plants. The remaining gas undertakings produce a liquefied petroleum gas (LPG)/air mixture using a mixture of either butane or propane and air. The individual gas units and the type of reforming feedstock are shown. A review of the oil-dependence of town gas and electricity production in Northern Ireland has been considered and is mainly responsible for the high fuel prices experienced in the community. A detailed description of the reforming process has been described, and considerable efforts have been made to optimize the process. In spite of substantial economic savings being made on the processing unit, the gas industry is very susceptible to the changes in oil prices which have escalated rapidly in recent years. The difference in gas prices between the United Kingdom and Northern Ireland indicates that North Sea gas would offer major economic benefits to the gas industry in Northern Ireland, which is operating at a substantial loss at the moment. The industrial concerns, which are dependent on gas and therefore paying high fuel costs, suffer in competition with outside companies. The injection of a moderately cheap natural gas supply to the community may encourage industrial expansion and provide work in a high unemployment area. Although substantial costs must be incurred in distribution pipelines and burner conversions if Northern Ireland changes to natural gas, there appears to be a strong case to introduce North Sea gas in the near future.

  18. Potential soil organic carbon stocks in semi arid areas under climate change scenarios: an application of CarboSOIL model in northern Egypt

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muñoz-Rojas, Miriam; Abd-Elmabod, Sameh K.; Jordán, Antonio; Zavala, Lorena M.; Anaya-Romero, Maria; De la Rosa, Diego

    2014-05-01

    1. INTRODUCTION Climate change is predicted to have a large impact on semi arid areas which are often degraded and vulnerable to environmental changes (Muñoz-Rojas et al., 2012a; 2012b; 2013). However, these areas might play a key role in mitigation of climate change effects through sequestration of carbon in soils (United Nations, 2011). At the same time, increasing organic carbon in these environments could be beneficial for soil erosion control, soil fertility and, ultimately, food production (Lal, 2004). Several approaches have been carried out to evaluate climate change impacts on soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks, but soil carbon models are amongst the most effective tools to assess C stocks, dynamics and distribution and to predict trends under climate change scenarios (Jones et al., 2005 ). CarboSOIL is an empirical model based on regression techniques and developed to predict SOC contents at standard soil depths of 0 to 25, 25 to 50 and 50-75 cm (Muñoz-Rojas et al., 2013). CarboSOIL model has been designed as a GIS-integrated tool and is a new component of the agroecological decision support system for land evaluation MicroLEIS DSS (De la Rosa et al., 2004). 2. GENERAL METHODS In this research, CarboSOIL was applied in El-Fayoum depression, a semi arid region located in northern Egypt with a large potential for agriculture (Abd-Elmabod et al, 2012). The model was applied in a total of six soil-units classified according the USDA Soil Taxonomy system within the orders Entisols and Aridisols under different climate climate change scenarios. Global climate models based on the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (Agrawala at al., 2004) and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007) were applied to predict short-, medium- and long-term trends (2030, 2050 and 2100) of SOC dynamics and sequestration at different soil depths (0-25, 25-50 and 50-75) and land use types (irrigated areas, olive groves, wheat, cotton and other annual

  19. Northern blotting analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Josefsen, Knud; Nielsen, Henrik

    2011-01-01

    Northern blotting analysis is a classical method for analysis of the size and steady-state level of a specific RNA in a complex sample. In short, the RNA is size-fractionated by gel electrophoresis and transferred by blotting onto a membrane to which the RNA is covalently bound. Then, the membrane...... is analysed by hybridization to one or more specific probes that are labelled for subsequent detection. Northern blotting is relatively simple to perform, inexpensive, and not plagued by artefacts. Recent developments of hybridization membranes and buffers have resulted in increased sensitivity closing...

  20. Petrology and geochemistry of the orbicular granitoid of Caldera, northern Chile. Models and hypotheses on the formation of radial orbicular textures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Díaz-Alvarado, Juan; Rodríguez, Natalia; Rodríguez, Carmen; Fernández, Carlos; Constanzo, Ítalo

    2017-07-01

    The orbicular granitoid of Caldera, located at the northern part of the Chilean Coastal Range, is a spectacular example of radial textures in orbicular structures. The orbicular body crops out as a 375 m2 tabular to lensoidal intrusive sheet emplaced in the Lower Jurassic Relincho pluton. The orbicular structures are 3-7 cm in diameter ellipsoids hosted in a porphyritic matrix. The orbicules are comprised by a Qtz-dioritic core (3-5 cm in diameter) composed by Pl + Hbl + Qtz + Bt ± Kfs with equiaxial textures and a gabbroic shell (2-3 cm in diameter) characterized by feathery and radiate textures with a plagioclase + hornblende paragenesis. The radial shell crystals are rooted and orthogonally disposed in the irregular contact with the core. The radial shell, called here inner shell, is in contact with the granodioritic equiaxial interorbicular matrix through a 2-3 mm wide poikilitic band around the orbicule (outer shell). The outer shell and the matrix surrounding the orbicules are characterized by the presence of large hornblende and biotite oikocrystals that include fine-grained rounded plagioclase and magnetite. The oikocrystals of both the outer shell and the matrix have a circumferential arrangement around the orbicule, i.e. orthogonal to the radial inner shell. The coarse-grained granodioritic interorbicular matrix present pegmatitic domains with large acicular hornblende and K-feldspar megacrysts. This work presents a review of the textural characteristics of the orbicules and a complete new mineral and whole-rock geochemical study of the different parts of the orbicular granitoid, together with thermobarometric and crystallographic data, and theoretical modeling of the crystallization and element partitioning processes. We propose a model for the formation of the orbicular radial textures consisting of several processes that are suggested to occur fast and consecutively: superheating, volatile exsolution, undercooling, geochemical fractionation and

  1. The Lemmatisation of adverbs in northern Sotho | Prinsloo | Lexikos

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The aim of this article is to offer solutions to the lemmatisation problems regarding adverbs in Northern Sotho and to propose guiding entries for paper and electronic dictionaries which could serve as models for future dictionaries. The treatment of adverbs in Northern Sotho dictionaries will also be criti-cally evaluated, ...

  2. Northern blotting analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Josefsen, Knud; Nielsen, Henrik

    2011-01-01

    is analysed by hybridization to one or more specific probes that are labelled for subsequent detection. Northern blotting is relatively simple to perform, inexpensive, and not plagued by artefacts. Recent developments of hybridization membranes and buffers have resulted in increased sensitivity closing...

  3. insurgencies in northern Uganda

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    International Criminal Court (ICC) investigations into the LRA activities. ... and the rebel movements in northern Uganda, see Human Rights Watch 2003, and ... the ICC, Luis Moreno Ocampo, met at Hotel Intercontinental, Hyde Park, London, ..... expunge criminal liability for war crimes and crimes against humanity, appear.

  4. The visual arts in Northern Ireland hospitals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cromie, H

    1995-10-01

    Since 1989 there has been a burgeoning of the visual arts in Northern Ireland hospitals. This paper compares the three organisational models for hospital arts currently operating within the Province and in an overview discusses ways to coordinate working practice for future development of the visual arts in local hospitals.

  5. The visual arts in Northern Ireland hospitals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cromie, H.

    1995-01-01

    Since 1989 there has been a burgeoning of the visual arts in Northern Ireland hospitals. This paper compares the three organisational models for hospital arts currently operating within the Province and in an overview discusses ways to coordinate working practice for future development of the visual arts in local hospitals. Images Fig 1 Fig 2 Fig 3 PMID:8533183

  6. 'No more strangers': Investigating the experiences of women, midwives and others during the establishment of a new model of maternity care for remote dwelling aboriginal women in northern Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Josif, Cathryn M; Barclay, Lesley; Kruske, Sue; Kildea, Sue

    2014-03-01

    to describe the experiences of women, midwives and others during the establishment of a new model of maternity care for remote dwelling Aboriginal women transferred to a regional centre in northern Australia for maternity care and birth. a mixed method design within a Participatory Action Research approach was used. Qualitative findings are presented here. Data for this paper were collected from semi-structured interviews, field notes and observations and analysed thematically. the 'top end' of the Northern Territory of Australia. a total of 66 participants included six MGP midwives, two Aboriginal Health Workers and one Senior Aboriginal Woman working in the new model; eight hospital midwives; 34 Department of Health staff, three staff from other agencies; and 12 remote dwelling Aboriginal women who used the service. the study generated one overarching theme, it's not a perfect system but it's changing. This encompassed improvements to the services evident to all participants. Core themes related to the previous maternity service which was described as the arduous journey, the new model was seen as a new way of working and a resultant very different journey occurred for Aboriginal women using the service. there was a dissonance between the previous culture of maternity services and the woman centred focus of the new model. Over 12 months initial resistance to the new model diminished and it became highly valued. The transfer of information between the regional service and remote community health centres improved as did the safety and quality of care. Aboriginal women can access continuity of carer in the regional centre for the first time and reported a more positive experience with maternity services. The new model appears to have changed the cultural responsiveness of the regional maternity service; and care provided for remote dwelling women within this service. The qualitative findings inform others seeking to implement a similar model of care for remote

  7. Northern pipelines : backgrounder

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2002-04-01

    Most analysts agree that demand for natural gas in North America will continue to grow. Favourable market conditions created by rising demand and declining production have sparked renewed interest in northern natural gas development. The 2002 Annual Energy Outlook forecasted U.S. consumption to increase at an annual average rate of 2 per cent from 22.8 trillion cubic feet to 33.8 TCF by 2020, mostly due to rapid growth in demand for electric power generation. Natural gas prices are also expected to increase at an annual average rate of 1.6 per cent, reaching $3.26 per thousand cubic feet in 2020. There are currently 3 proposals for pipelines to move northern gas to US markets. They include a stand-alone Mackenzie Delta Project, the Alaska Highway Pipeline Project, and an offshore route that would combine Alaskan and Canadian gas in a pipeline across the floor of the Beaufort Sea. Current market conditions and demand suggest that the projects are not mutually exclusive, but complimentary. The factors that differentiate northern pipeline proposals are reserves, preparedness for market, costs, engineering, and environmental differences. Canada has affirmed its role to provide the regulatory and fiscal certainty needed by industry to make investment decisions. The Government of the Yukon does not believe that the Alaska Highway Project will shut in Mackenzie Delta gas, but will instead pave the way for development of a new northern natural gas industry. The Alaska Highway Pipeline Project will bring significant benefits for the Yukon, the Northwest Territories and the rest of Canada. Unresolved land claims are one of the challenges that has to be addressed for both Yukon and the Northwest Territories, as the proposed Alaska Highway Pipeline will travel through traditional territories of several Yukon first Nations. 1 tab., 4 figs

  8. TSUNAMI HAZARD IN NORTHERN VENEZUELA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Theilen-Willige

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Based on LANDSAT ETM and Digital Elevation Model (DEM data derived by the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM, 2000 of the coastal areas of Northern Venezuela were investigated in order to detect traces of earlier tsunami events. Digital image processing methods used to enhance LANDSAT ETM imageries and to produce morphometric maps (such as hillshade, slope, minimum and maximum curvature maps based on the SRTM DEM data contribute to the detection of morphologic traces that might be related to catastrophic tsunami events. These maps combined with various geodata such as seismotectonic data in a GIS environment allow the delineation of coastal regions with potential tsunami risk. The LANDSAT ETM imageries merged with digitally processed and enhanced SRTM data clearly indicate areas that might be prone by flooding in case of catastrophic tsunami events.

  9. Increasing Northern Hemisphere water deficit

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCabe, Gregory J.; Wolock, David M.

    2015-01-01

    A monthly water-balance model is used with CRUTS3.1 gridded monthly precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (PET) data to examine changes in global water deficit (PET minus actual evapotranspiration) for the Northern Hemisphere (NH) for the years 1905 through 2009. Results show that NH deficit increased dramatically near the year 2000 during both the cool (October through March) and warm (April through September) seasons. The increase in water deficit near 2000 coincides with a substantial increase in NH temperature and PET. The most pronounced increases in deficit occurred for the latitudinal band from 0 to 40°N. These results indicate that global warming has increased the water deficit in the NH and that the increase since 2000 is unprecedented for the 1905 through 2009 period. Additionally, coincident with the increase in deficit near 2000, mean NH runoff also increased due to increases in P. We explain the apparent contradiction of concurrent increases in deficit and increases in runoff.

  10. Seasonally asymmetric enhancement of northern vegetation productivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, T.; Myneni, R.

    2017-12-01

    Multiple evidences of widespread greening and increasing terrestrial carbon uptake have been documented. In particular, enhanced gross productivity of northern vegetation has been a critical role leading to observed carbon uptake trend. However, seasonal photosynthetic activity and its contribution to observed annual carbon uptake trend and interannual variability are not well understood. Here, we introduce a multiple-source of datasets including ground, atmospheric and satellite observations, and multiple process-based global vegetation models to understand how seasonal variation of land surface vegetation controls a large-scale carbon exchange. Our analysis clearly shows a seasonally asymmetric enhancement of northern vegetation productivity in growing season during last decades. Particularly, increasing gross productivity in late spring and early summer is obvious and dominant driver explaining observed trend and variability. We observe more asymmetric productivity enhancement in warmer region and this spatially varying asymmetricity in northern vegetation are likely explained by canopy development rate, thermal and light availability. These results imply that continued warming may facilitate amplifying asymmetric vegetation activity and cause these trends to become more pervasive, in turn warming induced regime shift in northern land.

  11. Target-oriented obstacle analysis by PESTEL modeling of energy efficiency retrofit for existing residential buildings in China's northern heating region

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shilei, Lv [School of Environment Science and Technology, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072 (China); Yong, Wu [Department of Science and Technology, Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development of the People' s Republic of China, Beijing 100835 (China)

    2009-06-15

    According to the 'Comprehensive Work Program of Energy Efficiency and Emission Reduction' of the Chinese government, during the period of the '11th Five-Year Plan', 1.5 x 10{sup 8} m{sup 2} of existing residential buildings in China's northern heating region are to be retrofitted for energy efficiency. However, at present, this 'Energy Efficiency Retrofit for Existing Residential Buildings' (EERFERB) faces many obstacles. Under the current working and market system, both the central and local governments and the energy supply companies can not push on this work smoothly. Using both the results of the annual national special inspection of building energy efficiency and some case analyses, this paper examines the necessity for energy efficiency retrofit, along with the relationships among the various Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Environmental and Legal (PESTEL) factors affecting it. Furthermore, organizational, financial and technical support systems are explored to promote the development of retrofit. Finally, some primary principles to be followed toward the implementation of EERFERB are suggested. (author)

  12. Target-oriented obstacle analysis by PESTEL modeling of energy efficiency retrofit for existing residential buildings in China's northern heating region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shilei, Lv; Wu Yong

    2009-01-01

    According to the 'Comprehensive Work Program of Energy Efficiency and Emission Reduction' of the Chinese government, during the period of the '11th Five-Year Plan', 1.5x10 8 m 2 of existing residential buildings in China's northern heating region are to be retrofitted for energy efficiency. However, at present, this 'Energy Efficiency Retrofit for Existing Residential Buildings' (EERFERB) faces many obstacles. Under the current working and market system, both the central and local governments and the energy supply companies can not push on this work smoothly. Using both the results of the annual national special inspection of building energy efficiency and some case analyses, this paper examines the necessity for energy efficiency retrofit, along with the relationships among the various Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Environmental and Legal (PESTEL) factors affecting it. Furthermore, organizational, financial and technical support systems are explored to promote the development of retrofit. Finally, some primary principles to be followed toward the implementation of EERFERB are suggested.

  13. Ultraviolet resources over Northern Eurasia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chubarova, Natalia; Zhdanova, Yekaterina

    2013-10-05

    We propose a new climatology of UV resources over Northern Eurasia, which includes the assessments of both detrimental (erythema) and positive (vitamin D synthesis) effects of ultraviolet radiation on human health. The UV resources are defined by using several classes and subclasses - UV deficiency, UV optimum, and UV excess - for 6 different skin types. To better quantifying the vitamin D irradiance threshold we accounted for an open body fraction S as a function of effective air temperature. The spatial and temporal distribution of UV resources was estimated by radiative transfer (RT) modeling (8 stream DISORT RT code) with 1×1° grid and monthly resolution. For this purpose special datasets of main input geophysical parameters (total ozone content, aerosol characteristics, surface UV albedo, UV cloud modification factor) have been created over the territory of Northern Eurasia. The new approaches were used to retrieve aerosol parameters and cloud modification factor in the UV spectral region. As a result, the UV resources were obtained for clear-sky and mean cloudy conditions for different skin types. We show that the distribution of UV deficiency, UV optimum and UV excess is regulated by various geophysical parameters (mainly, total ozone, cloudiness and open body fraction) and can significantly deviate from latitudinal dependence. We also show that the UV optimum conditions can be simultaneously observed for people with different skin types (for example, for 4-5 skin types at the same time in spring over Western Europe). These UV optimum conditions for different skin types occupy a much larger territory over Europe than that over Asia. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. Making 3D movies of Northern Lights

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hivon, Eric; Mouette, Jean; Legault, Thierry

    2017-10-01

    We describe the steps necessary to create three-dimensional (3D) movies of Northern Lights or Aurorae Borealis out of real-time images taken with two distant high-resolution fish-eye cameras. Astrometric reconstruction of the visible stars is used to model the optical mapping of each camera and correct for it in order to properly align the two sets of images. Examples of the resulting movies can be seen at http://www.iap.fr/aurora3d

  15. Evaluation of groundwater-surface water interaction through groundwater modelling: simulation of the effects of removal of a dam along a river at a contaminated site in Northern France

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michele Remonti

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available A numerical groundwater flow model has been developed for an industrial site bounded by a river in in Basse Normandie, Northern France. The scope of the work was the optimisation of the existing groundwater pump and treat system and the prediction of possible effects on groundwater circulation after the future removal of a dam located along the river. The model has been implemented with the finite difference code MODFLOW 2005 and represents an area with an extension of approximately 800 x 500 m. It has been calibrated using static conditions groundwater head data (wells deactivated and verified with 1 abstracting conditions (wells abstracting head data, 2 simulating pumping tests with transient simulations and 3 comparing measured average river baseflow with modelled river drainage. The model indicates that the hydraulic barrier in the present abstraction scenario has some problematic areas and needs some improvements, as confirmed by the hydrochemical data of the river water. A first predictive scenario has been developed to optimise the barrier, indicating that a flow rate of 0.5 m3/h each at three new barrier wells, in addition to the present abstraction scenario, should ensure the hydraulic containment of the site. A second predictive scenario simulates the optimised groundwater abstractions without the presence of the dam along the neighbouring river. In these conditions, the river will increase the drainage effect on the aquifer, requiring a further increase in the rate of abstraction from the existing and new wells to ensure the hydraulic containment. With this paper we would like to present an example of what we think is a correct professional approach, with the design of the simplest model as possible depending on the hydrogeological conceptual model complexity, the abundance of data and the model objectives, and where multiple confirmations of the correctness of groundwater model results have been searched for.

  16. Northern Eurasia Future Initiative (NEFI)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Groisman, Pavel; Shugart, Herman; Kicklighter, David

    2017-01-01

    . The Northern Eurasia Future Initiative (NEFI) has been designed as an essential continuation of the Northern Eurasia Earth Science Partnership Initiative (NEESPI), which was launched in 2004. NEESPI sought to elucidate all aspects of ongoing environmental change, to inform societies and, thus, to better...

  17. Application of a one-dimensional model to explore the drivers and lability of carbon in the northern Gulf of Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    A one-dimensional water quality model, Gulf of Mexico Dissolved Oxygen Model (GoMDOM-1D), was developed to simulate phytoplankton, carbon, nutrients, and dissolved oxygen in Gulf of Mexico. The model was calibrated and corroborated against a comprehensive set of field observation...

  18. Modelling the location of shallow landslides and their effects on landscape dynamics in large watersheds: An application for Northern New Zealand

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Claessens, L.; Schoorl, J.M.; Veldkamp, A.

    2007-01-01

    In this study we propose a model to assess the location of shallow landslides and their impact on landscape development within a timeframe of years to decades. Processes that need to be incorporated in the model are reviewed then followed by the proposed modelling framework. The capabilities of the

  19. Random Forest population modelling of striped and common-bottlenose dolphins in the Gulf of Taranto (Northern Ionian Sea, Central-eastern Mediterranean Sea)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carlucci, Roberto; Cipriano, Giulia; Paoli, Chiara; Ricci, Pasquale; Fanizza, Carmelo; Capezzuto, Francesca; Vassallo, Paolo

    2018-05-01

    This study provides the first estimates of density and abundance of the striped dolphin Stenella coeruleoalba and common bottlenose dolphin Tursiops truncatus in the Gulf of Taranto (Northern Ionian Sea, Central Mediterranean Sea) and identifies the predictive variables mainly influencing their occurrence and concentration in the study area. Conventional Distance Sampling (CDS) and the Delta approach on Random Forest (DaRF) methods have been applied to sightings data collected between 2009 and 2016 during standardized vessel-based surveys, providing similar outcomes. The mean value of density over the entire study area was 0.72 ± 0.26 specimens/km2 for the striped dolphin and 0.47 ± 0.09 specimens/km2 for the common bottlenose dolphin. The abundance estimated by DaRF in the Gulf of Taranto was 10080 ± 3584 specimens of S. coeruleoalba and 6580 ± 1270 specimens of T. truncatus, respectively. Eight predictive variables were selected, considering both the local physiographic features and human activities existing in the investigated area. The explanatory variables depth, distance from the coast, distance from industrial areas and distance from areas exploited by fishery seem to play a key role in influencing the spatial distribution of both species, whereas the geomorphological variables proved to be the most significant factors shaping the concentration of both dolphins. The establishment of a Specially Protected Area of Mediterranean Importance (SPAMI) according the SPA/BD Protocol in the Gulf of Taranto is indicated as an effective management tool for the conservation of both dolphin populations in the Central-eastern Mediterranean Sea.

  20. The Coastal Observing System for Northern and Arctic Seas (COSYNA)

    OpenAIRE

    Baschek, Burkard; Schroeder, Friedhelm; Brix, Holger; Riethmüller, Rolf; Badewien, Thomas H.; Breitbach, Gisbert; Brügge, Bernd; Colijn, Franciscus; Doerffer, Roland; Eschenbach, Christiane; Friedrich, Jana; Fischer, Philipp; Garthe, Stefan; Horstmann, Jochen; Krasemann, Hajo

    2017-01-01

    The Coastal Observing System for Northern and Arctic Seas (COSYNA) was established in order to better understand the complex interdisciplinary processes of northern seas and the Arctic coasts in a changing environment. Particular focus is given to the German Bight in the North Sea as a prime example of a heavily used coastal area, and Svalbard as an example of an Arctic coast that is under strong pressure due to global change. The COSYNA automated observing and modelling system is designed...

  1. From the Northern Eurasia Earth Science Partnership Initiative to the Northern Eurasia Future Initiative

    Science.gov (United States)

    Streletskiy, D. A.; Groisman, P. Y.; Shugart, H. H., Jr.; Gulev, S.; Maksyutov, S. S.; Qi, J.

    2017-12-01

    Since 2004, the Northern Eurasia Earth Science Partnership Initiative (NEESPI) - an interdisciplinary program of internationally-supported Earth systems and science research - has addressed large-scale and long-term manifestations of climate and environmental changes over Northern Eurasia and their impact on the Global Earth system. With 40 books and more than 1500 peer-reviewed journal publications to its credit, NEESPI's output can now be used to directly support decision-making for societal needs. Specifically, it was decided to shift gradually the foci of regional studies in Northern Eurasia towards applications with the following major Science Question: "What dynamic and interactive change(s) will affect societal well-being, activities, and health, and what might be the mitigation and adaptation strategies that could support sustainable development and decision-making activities in Northern Eurasia?" To answer this question requires a stronger socio-economic component in the ongoing and future regional studies focused on sustainable societal development under changing climatic and environmental conditions. The NEESPI Research Team has reorganized itself into "Northern Eurasia Future Initiative" (NEFI) and developed a new Science Plan released in June 2016. The Plan underwent a 6-month-long public review and was finalized at the end of 2016. Its description was thereafter split between two review papers: Groisman et al. (2017) and Monier et al. (2017). The first paper describes the Plan rationale and a new set of topical questions. The second paper describes a major modeling approach that will be employed in addressing the "what to do" questions of the NEFI Research (cf., presentation by Monier et al. at this Session). In the current presentation, we outline the new NEFI research foci and present latest NEFI findings including international projects in the Eurasian Arctic, boreal zone, and the Dry Land Belt of Northern Eurasia (cf., also presentations at sister

  2. A WRF/Chem sensitivity study using ensemble modelling for a high ozone episode in Slovenia and the Northern Adriatic area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Žabkar, Rahela; Koračin, Darko; Rakovec, Jože

    2013-10-01

    A high ozone (O3) concentrations episode during a heat wave event in the Northeastern Mediterranean was investigated using the WRF/Chem model. To understand the major model uncertainties and errors as well as the impacts of model inputs on the model accuracy, an ensemble modelling experiment was conducted. The 51-member ensemble was designed by varying model physics parameterization options (PBL schemes with different surface layer and land-surface modules, and radiation schemes); chemical initial and boundary conditions; anthropogenic and biogenic emission inputs; and model domain setup and resolution. The main impacts of the geographical and emission characteristics of three distinct regions (suburban Mediterranean, continental urban, and continental rural) on the model accuracy and O3 predictions were investigated. In spite of the large ensemble set size, the model generally failed to simulate the extremes; however, as expected from probabilistic forecasting the ensemble spread improved results with respect to extremes compared to the reference run. Noticeable model nighttime overestimations at the Mediterranean and some urban and rural sites can be explained by too strong simulated winds, which reduce the impact of dry deposition and O3 titration in the near surface layers during the nighttime. Another possible explanation could be inaccuracies in the chemical mechanisms, which are suggested also by model insensitivity to variations in the nitrogen oxides (NOx) and volatile organic compounds (VOC) emissions. Major impact factors for underestimations of the daytime O3 maxima at the Mediterranean and some rural sites include overestimation of the PBL depths, a lack of information on forest fires, too strong surface winds, and also possible inaccuracies in biogenic emissions. This numerical experiment with the ensemble runs also provided guidance on an optimum model setup and input data.

  3. Cervical Cancer Screening Service Uptake and Associated Factors among Age Eligible Women in Mekelle Zone, Northern Ethiopia, 2015: A Community Based Study Using Health Belief Model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hinsermu Bayu

    Full Text Available Cervical cancer is the third most common cancer among women worldwide, with about 500,000 new patients diagnosed and over 250,000 deaths every year. Cervical cancer screening offers protective benefits and is associated with a reduction in the incidence of invasive cervical cancer and cervical cancer mortality. But there is very low participation rate in screening for cervical cancer among low and middle-income countries.This study aimed to determine cervical cancer screening service uptake and its associated factor among age eligible women in Mekelle zone, northern Ethiopia, 2015.A community based cross-sectional study was conducted in Mekelle zone among age eligible women from February to June 2015. Systematic sampling technique was used to select 1286 women in to the study. A pre-tested structured questionnaire was used to collect relevant data. Data was entered and cleaned using EPINFO and analyzed using SPSS version 20 software package. Bivariate and Multivariate logistic regression was performed to assess association between dependent and independent variables with 95% CI and p-value less than 0.05 was set for association.The study revealed that among 1186 age eligible women, only 235(19.8% have been screened for cervical cancer. Age (AOR = 1.799, 95%CI = 1.182-2.739, history of multiple sexual partners (AOR = 1.635, 95%CI = 1.094-2.443, history of sexually transmitted disease (AOR = 1.635,95%CI = 1.094-2.443, HIV sero status (AOR = 5.614, 95%CI = 2.595-12.144, perceived susceptibility to cervical cancer (AOR = 2.225, 95%CI = 1.308-3.783, perceived barriers to premalignant cervical lesions screening (AOR = 2.256, 95%CI = 1.447-3.517 and knowledge on cervical cancer and screening (AOR = 2.355, 95%CI = 1.155-4.802 were significant predictors of cervical cancer screening service uptake.Magnitude of cervical cancer screening service uptake among age eligible women is still unacceptably low. Age of the women, history of multiple sexual partners

  4. Joint influence of the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool and Northern Arabian Sea Temperatures on the Indian Summer Monsoon in a Global Climate Model Simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Befort, Daniel J.; Leckebusch, Gregor C.; Cubasch, Ulrich

    2016-04-01

    Proxy-based studies confirmed that the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) shows large variations during the Holocene. These changes might be explained by changes in orbital conditions and solar insolation but are also thought to be associated to changes in oceanic conditions, e.g. over the Indo-Pacific-Warm-Pool region. However, due to the nature of these (proxy-based) analyses no conclusion about atmospheric circulation changes during dry and wet epochs are possible. Here, a fully-coupled global climate simulation (AOGCM) covering the past 6000 years is analysed regarding ISM variability. Several dry and wet epochs are found, the most striking around 2ka BP (dry) and 1.7ka BP (wet). As only orbital parameters change during integration, we expect these "shorter-term" changes to be associated with changes in oceanic conditions. During 1.7ka BP the sea surface temperatures (SST) over the Northern Arabian Sea (NARAB) are significantly warmer compared to 2ka BP, whereas cooler conditions are found over the western Pacific Ocean. Additionally, significant differences are found over large parts of the North Atlantic. To explain in how far these different ocean basins are responsible for anomalous conditions during 1.7ka BP, several sensitivity experiments with changed SST/SIC conditions are carried out. It is found that neither the SST's in the Pacific nor in the Indian Ocean are able to reproduce the anomalous rainfall and atmospheric circulation patterns during 1.7ka on its own. Instead, anomalous dry conditions during 2ka BP and wet conditions during 1.7ka BP are associated with a shift of the Indo-Pacific-Warm-Pool (IPWP) and simultaneous anomalous sea-surface temperatures over the NARAB region. Eventually, it is tested in how far this hypothesis holds true for other dry and wet events in the AOGCM data during the whole 6000 years. In general, a shift of the IPWP without anomalous SST conditions over the NARAB region (and vice versa) is not sufficient to cause long

  5. Using Pop-II models to predict effects of wolf predation and hunter harvests on elk, mule deer, and moose on the northern range

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mack, John A.; Singer, Francis J.

    1993-01-01

    The effects of establishing a gray wolf (Canis lupus) population in Yellowstone National Park were predicted for three ungulate species—elk (Cervus elaphus), mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus), and moose (Alces alces)—using previously developed POP-II population models. We developed models for 78 and 100 wolves. For each wolf population, we ran scenarios using wolf predation rates of 9, 12, and 15 ungulates/wolf/year. With 78 wolves and the antlerless elk harvest reduced 27%, our modeled elk population estimated were 5-18% smaller than the model estimate without wolves. With 100 wolves and the antlerless elk harvest reduced 27%, our elk population estimated were 11-30% smaller than the population estimates without wolves. Wolf predation effects were greater on the modeled mule deer population than on elk. With 78 wolves and no antlerless deer harvest, we predicted the mule deer population could be 13-44% larger than without wolves. With 100 wolves and no antlerless deer harvest, the mule deer population was 0-36% larger than without wolves. After wolf recovery, our POP-II models suggested moose harvests would have to be reduced at least 50% to maintain moose numbers at the levels predicted when wolves were not present. Mule deer and moose population data are limited, and these wolf predation effects may be overestimated if population sizes or male-female ratios were underestimated in our population models. We recommend additional mule deer and moose population data be obtained.

  6. Fracture-network analysis of the Latemar Platform (northern Italy): integrating outcrop studies to constrain the hydraulic properties of fractures in reservoir models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boro, H.; Rosero, E.; Bertotti, G.V.

    2014-01-01

    Fractures in subsurface reservoirs are known to have significant impacts on reservoir productivity. Quantifying their importance, however, is challenged by limited subsurface observations, and intense computations for modelling and upscaling. In this paper, we present a workflow to construct and

  7. Ground-Water Flow Model of the Sierra Vista Subwatershed and Sonoran Portions of the Upper San Pedro Basin, Southeastern Arizona, United States, and Northern Sonora, Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pool, D.R.; Dickinson, Jesse

    2007-01-01

    A numerical ground-water model was developed to simulate seasonal and long-term variations in ground-water flow in the Sierra Vista subwatershed, Arizona, United States, and Sonora, Mexico, portions of the Upper San Pedro Basin. This model includes the simulation of details of the groundwater flow system that were not simulated by previous models, such as ground-water flow in the sedimentary rocks that surround and underlie the alluvial basin deposits, withdrawals for dewatering purposes at the Tombstone mine, discharge to springs in the Huachuca Mountains, thick low-permeability intervals of silt and clay that separate the ground-water flow system into deep-confined and shallow-unconfined systems, ephemeral-channel recharge, and seasonal variations in ground-water discharge by wells and evapotranspiration. Steady-state and transient conditions during 1902-2003 were simulated by using a five-layer numerical ground- water flow model representing multiple hydrogeologic units. Hydraulic properties of model layers, streamflow, and evapotranspiration rates were estimated as part of the calibration process by using observed water levels, vertical hydraulic gradients, streamflow, and estimated evapotranspiration rates as constraints. Simulations approximate observed water-level trends throughout most of the model area and streamflow trends at the Charleston streamflow-gaging station on the San Pedro River. Differences in observed and simulated water levels, streamflow, and evapotranspiration could be reduced through simulation of climate-related variations in recharge rates and recharge from flood-flow infiltration.

  8. Geomorphology and landscape organization of a northern peatland complex

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richardson, M. C.

    2012-12-01

    The geomorphic evolution of northern peatlands is governed by complex ecohydrological feedback mechanisms and associated hydro-climatic drivers. For example, prevailing models of bog development (i.e. Ingram's groundwater mounding hypothesis and variants) attempt to explicitly link bog dome characteristics to the regional climate based on analytical and numerical models of lateral groundwater flow and the first-order control of water table position on rates of peat accumulation. In this talk I will present new results from quantitative geomorphic analyses of a northern peatland complex at the De Beers Victor diamond mine site in the Hudson Bay Lowlands of northern Ontario. This work capitalizes on spatially-extensive, high-resolution topographic (LiDAR) data to rigorously test analytical and numerical models of bog dome development in this landscape. The analysis and discussion are then expanded beyond individual bog formations to more broadly consider ecohydrological drivers of landscape organization, with implications for understanding and modeling catchment-scale runoff response. Results show that in this landscape, drainage patterns exhibit relatively well-organized characteristics consistent with observed runoff responses in six gauged research catchments. Interpreted together, the results of these geomorphic and hydrologic analyses help refine our understanding of water balance partitioning among different landcover types within northern peatland complexes. These findings can be used to help guide the development of appropriate numerical model structures for hydrologic prediction in ungauged peatland basins of northern Canada.

  9. Geologic-seismic models, prediction of shallow-water lacustrine delta sandbody and hydrocarbon potential in the Late Miocene, Huanghekou Sag, Bohai Bay Basin, northern China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hao Liu

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The Huanghekou Sag is located at the southeast part of the Bohai Bay Basin, northern China. Large-scale shallow lake delta developed in the Neogene provided suitable geological conditions for the formation of a subtle oil-gas reservoir in this area. The key for analyzing sandstone reservoir and sedimentary facies is by using seismic attributes (amplitude to establish the relationship between lithology combination and seismic attributes. The lower unit of Late Miocene Minghuazhen Formation at the BZ34 block in the Huanghekou Sag was subdivided into 10 parasequence sets (PSS. Thicker sandstones mainly occurred in PSS1 and PSS10, whereas thin sandstones are mostly observed within other parasequence sets. This study presents statistics and analyses of lithology, i.e., statistics of root-mean-square (RMS amplitude and lithology of well locations in different parasequence sets of the study area, as well as 1-D forward seismic models of 7 types of lithology combinations, the establishment of a spatial distribution of 2-D sandbody, forward seismic models etc. Our study indicates that high amplitude peaks correspond to thicker sandbodies, while low amplitude indicates non-development of sandbodies (generally less than 2 m, and medium amplitude agrees well with large sets of mudstones interbedded with medium and thinner sandstones. Different sand–mudstone combinations genetically reflect a combination of multiple micro-facies, therefore, amplitude features can predict sandbodies as well as facies characteristics.

  10. Water in northern Alberta

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1987-01-01

    This report contains background information, including historical aspects, roles of government agencies, and relevant technical information, for use as a resource document at a conference on water resources in northern Alberta. An overview is presented of the three river basins which are the geographic focus of this report (Peace River, Athabasca, and Beaver River), describing their characteristics, the types of human activity occurring in them, and the relevant issues pertaining to water. The roles and responsibilities of government departments and agencies in water management are then introduced. A section on water resource issues defines ten topic areas, and for each issue, a summary of the issue, background of the issue, and key concerns and suggested actions are given. These issue areas concern groundwater management (including protection from contamination by oil field produced water), community water supply, farmland drainage and erosion, protection of surface water quality, watershed and wetlands management, farm and rural water supply, tourism/recreation and fisheries, industrial water use (particularly by the oil sand, forestry, and hydroelectric power industries), native peoples' concerns, and water diversion. The final section discusses a number of common themes which arose from the public consultation process, including integrated planning and program coordination, monitoring and enforcement, public information, and research requirements. 22 refs., 8 figs., 3 tabs.

  11. Northern Fur Seal Food Habits

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This data set contains food habits samples, usually scats, collected opportunistically on northern fur seal rookeries and haulouts in Alaska from 1987 to present....

  12. The Milankovitch theory and climate sensitivity. I - Equilibrium climate model solutions for the present surface conditions. II - Interaction between the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets and the climate system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neeman, Binyamin U.; Ohring, George; Joseph, Joachim H.

    1988-01-01

    A seasonal climate model was developed to test the climate sensitivity and, in particular, the Milankovitch (1941) theory. Four climate model versions were implemented to investigate the range of uncertainty in the parameterizations of three basic feedback mechanisms: the ice albedo-temperature, the outgoing long-wave radiation-temperature, and the eddy transport-meridional temperature gradient. It was found that the differences between the simulation of the present climate by the four versions were generally small, especially for annually averaged results. The climate model was also used to study the effect of growing/shrinking of a continental ice sheet, bedrock sinking/uplifting, and sea level changes on the climate system, taking also into account the feedback effects on the climate of the building of the ice caps.

  13. Simulation of surface temperature and ice cover of large northern lakes with 1-D models: a comparison with MODIS satellite data and in situ measurements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Kheyrollah Pour

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Lake surface temperature (LST and ice phenology were simulated for various points differing in depth on Great Slave Lake and Great Bear Lake, two large lakes located in the Mackenzie River Basin in Canada's Northwest Territories, using the 1-D Freshwater Lake model (FLake and the Canadian Lake Ice Model (CLIMo over the 2002–2010 period, forced with data from three weather stations (Yellowknife, Hay River and Deline. LST model results were compared to those derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS aboard the Earth Observing System Terra and Aqua satellite platforms. Simulated ice thickness and freeze-up/break-up dates were also compared to in situ observations. Both models showed a good agreement with daily average MODIS LSTs on an annual basis (0.935  ≤  relative index of agreement  ≤  0.984 and 0.94  ≤  mean bias error  ≤  4.83. The absence of consideration of snow on lake ice in FLake was found to have a large impact on estimated ice thicknesses (25 cm thicker on average by the end of winter compared to in situ measurements; 9 cm thicker for CLIMo and break-up dates (6 d earlier in comparison with in situ measurements; 3 d later for CLIMo. The overall agreement between the two models and MODIS LST products during both the open water and ice seasons was good. Remotely sensed data are a promising data source for assimilation into numerical weather prediction models, as they provide the spatial coverage that is not captured by in situ data.

  14. Radiological monitoring of northern slopes of Mogoltau

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Murtazaev, Kh.; Boboev, B.D.; Bolibekov, Sh.; Akhmedov, M.Z.

    2010-01-01

    Present article is devoted to radiological monitoring of northern slopes of Mogoltau. The physicochemical properties of water of northern slopes of Mogoltau were studied. The radiation monitoring of northern slopes of Mogoltau was carried out during several years under various weather conditions. The exposure rate of human settlements of northern part of Mogoltau was defined.

  15. Grid-scale Indirect Radiative Forcing of Climate due to aerosols over the northern hemisphere simulated by the integrated WRF-CMAQ model: Preliminary results

    Science.gov (United States)

    In this study, indirect aerosol effects on grid-scale clouds were implemented in the integrated WRF3.3-CMAQ5.0 modeling system by including parameterizations for both cloud droplet and ice number concentrations calculated from the CMAQ-predicted aerosol particles. The resulting c...

  16. Application of PestLCI model to site-specific soil and climate conditions: the case of maize production in Northern Italy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fantin, Valentina; Righi, Serena; Buscaroli, Alessandro

    2016-01-01

    The calculation of emissions from the use of pesticides is a critical issue in LCA studies of agrifood products and only occasionally discussed in details in literature studies. The objective of this study is to assess the results of the application of PestLCI 2.0 model to the production of maize...

  17. Application of the Coastal and Marine Ecological Classification Standard using Satellite-derived and Modeled Data Products for Pelagic Habitats in the Northern Gulf of Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Satellite-derived data for sea surface temperature, salinity, chlorophyll; euphotic depth; and modeled bottom to surface temperature differences (Delta t) were evaluated to assess the utility of these products as proxies for in situ measurements. The data were used to classify su...

  18. Shaken but not stirred: Multiscale habitat suitability modeling of sympatric marten species (Martes martes and Martes foina) in the northern Iberian Peninsula

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maria Vergara; Samuel A. Cushman; Fermin Urra; Aritz Ruiz-Gonzalez

    2016-01-01

    Multispecies and multiscale habitat suitability models (HSM) are important to identify the environmental variables and scales influencing habitat selection and facilitate the comparison of closely related species with different ecological requirements. Objectives This study explores the multiscale relationships of habitat suitability for the pine (Martes...

  19. Synthesis of Remote Sensing and Field Observations to Model and Understand Disturbance and Climate Effects on the Carbon Balance of Oregon & Northern California

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Beverly Law; David Turner; Warren Cohen; Mathias Goeckede

    2008-05-22

    The goal is to quantify and explain the carbon (C) budget for Oregon and N. California. The research compares "bottom -up" and "top-down" methods, and develops prototype analytical systems for regional analysis of the carbon balance that are potentially applicable to other continental regions, and that can be used to explore climate, disturbance and land-use effects on the carbon cycle. Objectives are: 1) Improve, test and apply a bottom up approach that synthesizes a spatially nested hierarchy of observations (multispectral remote sensing, inventories, flux and extensive sites), and the Biome-BGC model to quantify the C balance across the region; 2) Improve, test and apply a top down approach for regional and global C flux modeling that uses a model-data fusion scheme (MODIS products, AmeriFlux, atmospheric CO2 concentration network), and a boundary layer model to estimate net ecosystem production (NEP) across the region and partition it among GPP, R(a) and R(h). 3) Provide critical understanding of the controls on regional C balance (how NEP and carbon stocks are influenced by disturbance from fire and management, land use, and interannual climate variation). The key science questions are, "What are the magnitudes and distributions of C sources and sinks on seasonal to decadal time scales, and what processes are controlling their dynamics? What are regional spatial and temporal variations of C sources and sinks? What are the errors and uncertainties in the data products and results (i.e., in situ observations, remote sensing, models)?

  20. Changes in the structure and function of northern Alaskan ecosystems when considering variable leaf-out times across groupings of species in a dynamic vegetation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Euskirchen, E.S.; Carman, T.B.; McGuire, Anthony David

    2013-01-01

    The phenology of arctic ecosystems is driven primarily by abiotic forces, with temperature acting as the main determinant of growing season onset and leaf budburst in the spring. However, while the plant species in arctic ecosystems require differing amounts of accumulated heat for leaf-out, dynamic vegetation models simulated over regional to global scales typically assume some average leaf-out for all of the species within an ecosystem. Here, we make use of air temperature records and observations of spring leaf phenology collected across dominant groupings of species (dwarf birch shrubs, willow shrubs, other deciduous shrubs, grasses, sedges, and forbs) in arctic and boreal ecosystems in Alaska. We then parameterize a dynamic vegetation model based on these data for four types of tundra ecosystems (heath tundra, shrub tundra, wet sedge tundra, and tussock tundra), as well as ecotonal boreal white spruce forest, and perform model simulations for the years 1970 -2100. Over the course of the model simulations, we found changes in ecosystem composition under this new phenology algorithm compared to simulations with the previous phenology algorithm. These changes were the result of the differential timing of leaf-out, as well as the ability for the groupings of species to compete for nitrogen and light availability. Regionally, there were differences in the trends of the carbon pools and fluxes between the new phenology algorithm and the previous phenology algorithm, although these differences depended on the future climate scenario. These findings indicate the importance of leaf phenology data collection by species and across the various ecosystem types within the highly heterogeneous Arctic landscape, and that dynamic vegetation models should consider variation in leaf-out by groupings of species within these ecosystems to make more accurate projections of future plant distributions and carbon cycling in Arctic regions.

  1. Predictive modelling of eutrophication in the Pozón de la Dolores lake (Northern Spain) by using an evolutionary support vector machines approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    García-Nieto, P J; García-Gonzalo, E; Alonso Fernández, J R; Díaz Muñiz, C

    2018-03-01

    Eutrophication is a water enrichment in nutrients (mainly phosphorus) that generally leads to symptomatic changes and deterioration of water quality and all its uses in general, when the production of algae and other aquatic vegetations are increased. In this sense, eutrophication has caused a variety of impacts, such as high levels of Chlorophyll a (Chl-a). Consequently, anticipate its presence is a matter of importance to prevent future risks. The aim of this study was to obtain a predictive model able to perform an early detection of the eutrophication in water bodies such as lakes. This study presents a novel hybrid algorithm, based on support vector machines (SVM) approach in combination with the particle swarm optimization (PSO) technique, for predicting the eutrophication from biological and physical-chemical input parameters determined experimentally through sampling and subsequent analysis in a certificate laboratory. This optimization technique involves hyperparameter setting in the SVM training procedure, which significantly influences the regression accuracy. The results of the present study are twofold. In the first place, the significance of each biological and physical-chemical variables on the eutrophication is presented through the model. Secondly, a model for forecasting eutrophication is obtained with success. Indeed, regression with optimal hyperparameters was performed and coefficients of determination equal to 0.90 for the Total phosphorus estimation and 0.92 for the Chlorophyll concentration were obtained when this hybrid PSO-SVM-based model was applied to the experimental dataset, respectively. The agreement between experimental data and the model confirmed the good performance of the latter.

  2. Role of erosion and isostasy in the Cordillera Blanca uplift: insights from Low-T thermochronology and landscape evolution modeling (northern Peru, Andes)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Margirier, A.; Robert, X.; Braun, J.; Laurence, A.

    2017-12-01

    The uplift and exhumation of the highest Peruvian peaks seems closely linked to the Cordillera Blanca normal fault that delimits and shape the western flank of the Cordillera Blanca. Two models have been previously proposed to explain the occurrence of extension and the presence of this active normal fault in a compression setting but the Cordillera Blanca normal fault and the uplift and exhumation of the Cordillera Blanca remain enigmatic. Recent studies suggested an increase of exhumation rates during the Quaternary in the Cordillera Blanca and related this increase to a change in climate and erosion process (glacial erosion vs. fluvial erosion). The Cordillera Blanca granite has been significantly eroded since its emplacement (12-5 Ma) indicating a significant mass of rocks removal. Whereas it has been demonstrated recently that the effect of eroding denser rocks can contribute to an increase of uplift rate, the impact of erosion and isostasy on the increase of the Cordillera Blanca uplift rates has never been explored. Based on numerical modeling of landscape evolution we address the role of erosion and isostasy in the uplift and exhumation of the Cordillera Blanca. We performed inversions of the present-day topography, total exhumation and thermochronological data using a landscape evolution model (FastScape). Our results evidence the contribution of erosion and associated flexural rebound to the uplift of the Cordillera Blanca. Our models suggest that the erosion of the Cordillera Blanca dense intrusion since 3 Ma could also explain the Quaternary exhumation rate increase in this area. Finally, our results allow to question the previous models proposed for the formation of the Cordillera Blanca normal fault.

  3. Tornadoes Strike Northern Wisconsin

    Science.gov (United States)

    2007-01-01

    A series of tornadoes ripped through the Upper Midwest region of the United States in the evening of June 7, 2007. At least five different tornadoes touched down in Wisconsin, according to the Associated Press, one of which tore through the Bear Paw Resort in northern Wisconsin. Despite dropping as much as fifteen centimeters (six inches) of rain in some places and baseball-size hail in others, authorities were reporting no deaths attributable to the storm system, and only a smattering of injuries, but considerable property damage in some areas. When the MODIS instrument on NASA's Terra satellite observed the area on June 9, 2007, the track torn through the woods by one of the tornadoes stands out quite clearly. This photo-like image uses data collected by MODIS in the normal human vision range to give a familiar natural-looking appearance. The landscape is largely a checkerboard of farms, towns, roads, and cities. The pale land is predominantly farmland where crops have not fully grown in yet. Dark blue shows the winding path of rivers and lakes dotting the landscape. The large blue lake on the east (right) side of the image is Lake Michigan. Towns and cities, including the city of Green Bay, are gray. To the north side, farmland gives way to dark green as land use shifts from agriculture to the Menominee Indian Reservation and Nicolet National Forest. The diagonal slash through the dark green forested land shows the tornado track. Bare land was revealed where the tornado tore down trees or stripped vegetation off the branches. The high-resolution image provided above is at MODIS' full spatial resolution (level of detail) of 250 meters per pixel. The MODIS Rapid Response System provides this image at additional resolutions.

  4. Fishery stock assessment of Kiddi shrimp ( Parapenaeopsis stylifera) in the Northern Arabian Sea Coast of Pakistan by using surplus production models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohsin, Muhammad; Mu, Yongtong; Memon, Aamir Mahmood; Kalhoro, Muhammad Talib; Shah, Syed Baber Hussain

    2017-07-01

    Pakistani marine waters are under an open access regime. Due to poor management and policy implications, blind fishing is continued which may result in ecological as well as economic losses. Thus, it is of utmost importance to estimate fishery resources before harvesting. In this study, catch and effort data, 1996-2009, of Kiddi shrimp Parapenaeopsis stylifera fishery from Pakistani marine waters was analyzed by using specialized fishery software in order to know fishery stock status of this commercially important shrimp. Maximum, minimum and average capture production of P. stylifera was observed as 15 912 metric tons (mt) (1997), 9 438 mt (2009) and 11 667 mt/a. Two stock assessment tools viz. CEDA (catch and effort data analysis) and ASPIC (a stock production model incorporating covariates) were used to compute MSY (maximum sustainable yield) of this organism. In CEDA, three surplus production models, Fox, Schaefer and Pella-Tomlinson, along with three error assumptions, log, log normal and gamma, were used. For initial proportion (IP) 0.8, the Fox model computed MSY as 6 858 mt (CV=0.204, R 2 =0.709) and 7 384 mt (CV=0.149, R 2 =0.72) for log and log normal error assumption respectively. Here, gamma error produced minimization failure. Estimated MSY by using Schaefer and Pella-Tomlinson models remained the same for log, log normal and gamma error assumptions i.e. 7 083 mt, 8 209 mt and 7 242 mt correspondingly. The Schafer results showed highest goodness of fit R 2 (0.712) values. ASPIC computed MSY, CV, R 2, F MSY and B MSY parameters for the Fox model as 7 219 mt, 0.142, 0.872, 0.111 and 65 280, while for the Logistic model the computed values remained 7 720 mt, 0.148, 0.868, 0.107 and 72 110 correspondingly. Results obtained have shown that P. stylifera has been overexploited. Immediate steps are needed to conserve this fishery resource for the future and research on other species of commercial importance is urgently needed.

  5. Climate change impacts in Northern Canada: Assessing our current knowledge

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gill, M.J.; Eamer, J. [Environment Canada, Environmental Conservation Branch, Whitehorse, YT (Canada); Munier, A.; Ogden, A. [Yukon College, Northern Climate ExChange, Whitehorse, YT (Canada); Duerden, F. [Ryerson University, School of Applied Geography, Toronto, ON (Canada); Hik, D. [Alberta Univ., Dept. of Biological Sciences, Edmonton, AB (Canada); Fox, S.; Riedlinger, D.; Thorpe, N. [GeoNorth Limited, Whitehorse, YT (Canada); Johnson, I.; Jensen, M. [Legend Seekers Anthropological Research, Whitehorse, YT (Canada)

    2001-07-01

    A research project by the Northern Climate ExChange at Yukon College, undertaken to bring together into one document all relevant information that will help facilitate the identification of priorities for climate change research, monitoring, technological development and policy development in Canada's North, is described. In addition to the report, project deliverables also include a database of climate change information sources and a database of northern climate change contacts. The review includes scientific, local and Traditional Knowledge sources relating to climate change about each of seventeen natural and human systems (e.g. boreal forests, community health, mining, etc.), synthesized into a table for each system, with projected environmental changes crossed in matrix format with system components. Each cross-relationship was given a ranking; supporting information was included, based on the current state of knowledge of that relationship. In general, current information concerning northern systems, predicted climate changes and the impacts of those changes on northern systems is poor. However, much information does exist and the gap analysis revealed a number of general patterns relating to this information. Clearly, more research is required throughout northern Canada, but in particular, in the eastern Arctic, to provide a greater understanding of the implications of climate changes across the North, and to aid in the development of finer-scale, regional circulation models resulting in better predictive capacity of climate change and its impacts on northern areas.

  6. Relationship between waterfowl nutrition and condition on agricultural drainwater ponds in the Tulare Basin, California: waterfowl body composition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Euliss, N.H.; Jarvis, R.L.; Gilmer, D.S.

    1997-01-01

    We examined carcass composition and proximate food composition of ruddy ducks (Oxyura jamaicensis), northern shovelers (Anas clypeata), and northern pintails (Anas acuta) wintering on agricultural drainwater ponds in California during 1983-84. Lipids varied seasonally in northern shovelers and northern pintails. Protein did not fluctuate except in ruddy ducks whose protein mass increased over winter, suggesting that some protein was catabolized prior to arrival on wintering areas or that a buildup of protein occurred prior to spring migration. Waterfowl diets varied among species and time, but the nutritional composition of the diets was relatively stable. Ruddy ducks and shovelers consumed mostly animal foods rich in protein (53-60%) and low in Nitrogen Free Extract (NFE)(1-7%). Pintail diets contained more NFE (23-38%) and less protein (14-38%) because of greater consumption of plant foods. Nutritional composition of pintail diets varied with lower protein consumption occurring from November through January.

  7. An integrated study of spatial multicriteria analysis and mathematical modelling for managed aquifer recharge site suitability mapping and site ranking at Northern Gaza coastal aquifer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahman, Mohammad Azizur; Rusteberg, Bernd; Uddin, Mohammad Salah; Lutz, Annegret; Saada, Muath Abu; Sauter, Martin

    2013-07-30

    This paper describes an integrated approach of site suitability mapping and ranking of the most suitable sites, for the implementation of Managed Aquifer Recharge (MAR) projects, using spatial multicriteria decision analysis (SMCDA) techniques and mathematical modelling. The SMCDA procedure contains constraint mapping, site suitability analysis with criteria standardization and weighting, criteria overlay by analytical hierarchy process (AHP) combined with weighted linear combination (WLC) and ordered weighted averaging (OWA), and sensitivity analysis. The hydrogeological impacts of the selected most suitable sites were quantified by using groundwater flow and transport modelling techniques. Finally, ranking of the selected sites was done with the WLC method. The integrated approach is demonstrated by a case study in the coastal aquifer of North Gaza. Constraint mapping shows that 50% of the total study area is suitable for MAR implementation. About 25% of the total area is "very good" and 25% percent is "good" for MAR, according to the site suitability analysis. Six locations were selected and ranked against six representative decision criteria. Long term (year 2003 to year 2040) groundwater flow and transport simulations were performed to quantify the selected criteria under MAR project operation conditions at the selected sites. Finally, the suitability mapping and hydrogeological investigation recommends that the location of the existing infiltration ponds, constructed near the planned North Gaza Wastewater Treatment Plant (NGWWTP) is most suitable for MAR project implementation. This paper concludes that mathematical modelling should be combined with the SMCDA technique in order to select the best location for MAR project implementation. Besides MAR project implementation, the generalised approach can be applicable for any other water resources development project that deals with site selection and implementation. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights

  8. Digital Geology from field to 3D modelling and Google Earth virtual environment: methods and goals from the Furlo Gorge (Northern Apennines - Italy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Donatis, Mauro; Susini, Sara

    2014-05-01

    A new map of the Furlo Gorge was surveyed and elaborated in a digital way. In every step of work we used digital tools as mobile GIS and 3D modelling software. Phase 1st Starting in the lab, planning the field project development, base cartography, forms and data base were designed in the way we thought was the best for collecting and store data in order of producing a digital n­-dimensional map. Bedding attitudes, outcrops sketches and description, stratigraphic logs, structural features and other informations were collected and organised in a structured database using rugged tablet PC, GPS receiver, digital cameras and later also an Android smartphone with some survey apps in-­house developed. A new mobile GIS (BeeGIS) was developed starting from an open source GIS (uDig): a number of tools like GPS connection, pen drawing annotations, geonotes, fieldbook, photo synchronization and geotagging were originally designed. Phase 2nd After some month of digital field work, all the informations were elaborated for drawing a geologic map in GIS environment. For that we use both commercial (ArcGIS) and open source (gvSig, QGIS, uDig) without big technical problems. Phase 3rd When we get to the step of building a 3D model (using 3DMove), passing trough the assisted drawing of cross-­sections (2DMove), we discovered a number of problems in the interpretation of geological structures (thrusts, normal faults) and more in the interpretation of stratigraphic thickness and boundaries and their relationships with topography. Phase 4th Before an "on­-armchair" redrawing of map, we decide to go back to the field and check directly what was wrong. Two main vantages came from this: (1) the mistakes we found could be reinterpreted and corrected directly in the field having all digital tools we need; (2) previous interpretations could be stored in GIS layers keeping memory of the previous work (also mistakes). Phase 5th A 3D model built with 3D Move is already almost self

  9. Application of a hydrodynamic and sediment transport model for guidance of response efforts related to the Deepwater Horizon oil spill in the Northern Gulf of Mexico along the coast of Alabama and Florida

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plant, Nathaniel G.; Long, Joseph W.; Dalyander, P. Soupy; Thompson, David M.; Raabe, Ellen A.

    2013-01-01

    U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) scientists have provided a model-based assessment of transport and deposition of residual Deepwater Horizon oil along the shoreline within the northern Gulf of Mexico in the form of mixtures of sand and weathered oil, known as surface residual balls (SRBs). The results of this USGS research, in combination with results from other components of the overall study, will inform operational decisionmaking. The results will provide guidance for response activities and data collection needs during future oil spills. In May 2012 the U.S. Coast Guard, acting as the Deepwater Horizon Federal on-scene coordinator, chartered an operational science advisory team to provide a science-based review of data collected and to conduct additional directed studies and sampling. The goal was to characterize typical shoreline profiles and morphology in the northern Gulf of Mexico to identify likely sources of residual oil and to evaluate mechanisms whereby reoiling phenomena may be occurring (for example, burial and exhumation and alongshore transport). A steering committee cochaired by British Petroleum Corporation (BP) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is overseeing the project and includes State on-scene coordinators from four States (Alabama, Florida, Louisiana, and Mississippi), trustees of the U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI), and representatives from the U.S. Coast Guard. This report presents the results of hydrodynamic and sediment transport models and developed techniques for analyzing potential SRB movement and burial and exhumation along the coastline of Alabama and Florida. Results from these modeling efforts are being used to explain the complexity of reoiling in the nearshore environment and to broaden consideration of the different scenarios and difficulties that are being faced in identifying and removing residual oil. For instance, modeling results suggest that larger SRBs are not, under the most commonly

  10. A model of seasonal foliage dynamics of the subtropical mangrove species Rhizophora stylosa Griff. growing at the northern limit of its distribution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sahadev Sharma

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Background Progress of forest production in response to the environment requires a quantitative understanding of leaf area development. Therefore, it is necessary to investigate the dynamics of seasonal crown foliage in order to understand the productivity of mangroves, which play an important role in the subtropical and tropical coastlines of the world. Method Crown foliage dynamics of the mangrove Rhizophora stylosa were studies to reveal patterns of leaf recruitment, survival and seasonal leaf area growth. Results Flushing of leaves occurred throughout the year, but both flushing and leaf area growth pattern of leaves varied with season. Maximum flushing occurred in summer, but leaf areas did not differ significantly with season. The half-expansion period is longer, and the intrinsic rate of increase was lower in winter. Summer flushed leaves grew faster at their initial stage and reached their maximum area over a shorter period of time. The difference in temperature and air vapor pressure deficit (VPD between summer and winter contributed to the present dynamics of foliage patterns. The mean leaf longevity was estimated to be 13.1 month. The crown foliage area was almost stable throughout the year. Conclusions Homeostatic control of the crown foliage area may be accompanied by the existence of ecophysiological mechanisms in R. stylosa. Integrating crown foliage dynamics into forest models represents an important step towards incorporating physiological mechanisms into the models for predicting growth responses to environmental changes and for understanding the complex responses of tree growth and litter production.

  11. Impacts of mean annual air temperature change on a regional permafrost probability model for the southern Yukon and northern British Columbia, Canada

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. P. Bonnaventure

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Air temperature changes were applied to a regional model of permafrost probability under equilibrium conditions for an area of nearly 0.5 × 106 km2 in the southern Yukon and northwestern British Columbia, Canada. Associated environmental changes, including snow cover and vegetation, were not considered in the modelling. Permafrost extent increases from 58% of the area (present day: 1971–2000 to 76% under a −1 K cooling scenario, whereas warming scenarios decrease the percentage of permafrost area exponentially to 38% (+ 1 K, 24% (+ 2 K, 17% (+ 3 K, 12% (+ 4 K and 9% (+ 5 K of the area. The morphology of permafrost gain/loss under these scenarios is controlled by the surface lapse rate (SLR, i.e. air temperature elevation gradient, which varies across the region below treeline. Areas that are maritime exhibit SLRs characteristically similar above and below treeline resulting in low probabilities of permafrost in valley bottoms. When warming scenarios are applied, a loss front moves to upper elevations (simple unidirectional spatial loss. Areas where SLRs are gently negative below treeline and normal above treeline exhibit a loss front moving up-mountain at different rates according to two separate SLRs (complex unidirectional spatial loss. Areas that display high continentally exhibit bidirectional spatial loss in which the loss front moves up-mountain above treeline and down-mountain below treeline. The parts of the region most affected by changes in MAAT (mean annual air temperature have SLRs close to 0 K km−1 and extensive discontinuous permafrost, whereas the least sensitive in terms of areal loss are sites above the treeline where permafrost presence is strongly elevation dependent.

  12. Simulated seasonal and interannual variability of mixed layer heat budget in the northern Indian Ocean

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    DeBoyer Montegut, C.; Vialard, J.; Shenoi, S.S.C.; Shankar, D.; Durand, F.; Ethe, C.; Madec, G.

    A global Ocean General Circulation Model (OGCM) is used to investigate the mixed layer heat budget of the Northern Indian Ocean (NIO). The model is validated against observations and shows a fairly good agreement with mixed layer depth data...

  13. Comparison of the ocean surface vector winds from atmospheric reanalysis and scatterometer-based wind products over the Nordic Seas and the northern North Atlantic and their application for ocean modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dukhovskoy, Dmitry S.; Bourassa, Mark A.; Petersen, Gudrún Nína; Steffen, John

    2017-03-01

    Ocean surface vector wind fields from reanalysis data sets and scatterometer-derived gridded products are analyzed over the Nordic Seas and the northern North Atlantic for the time period from 2000 to 2009. The data sets include the National Center for Environmental Prediction Reanalysis 2 (NCEPR2), Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), Arctic System Reanalysis (ASR), Cross-Calibrated Multiplatform (CCMP) wind product version 1.1 and recently released version 2.0, and QuikSCAT. The goal of the study is to assess discrepancies across the wind vector fields in the data sets and demonstrate possible implications of these differences for ocean modeling. Large-scale and mesoscale characteristics of winds are compared at interannual, seasonal, and synoptic timescales. A cyclone tracking methodology is developed and applied to the wind fields to compare cyclone characteristics in the data sets. Additionally, the winds are evaluated against observations collected from meteorological buoys deployed in the Iceland and Irminger Seas. The agreement among the wind fields is better for longer time and larger spatial scales. The discrepancies are clearly apparent for synoptic timescales and mesoscales. CCMP, ASR, and CFSR show the closest overall agreement with each other. Substantial biases are found in the NCEPR2 winds. Numerical sensitivity experiments are conducted with a coupled ice-ocean model forced by different wind fields. The experiments demonstrate differences in the net surface heat fluxes during storms. In the experiment forced by NCEPR2 winds, there are discrepancies in the large-scale wind-driven ocean dynamics compared to the other experiments.

  14. Price transmission in the trans-atlantic northern shrimp value chain

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Max; Ankamah-Yeboah, Isaac; Staahl, Lisa

    2018-01-01

    affect northern shrimp fisheries. In this paper, price transmission in the trans-Atlantic northern shrimp value chain is analysed using a Vector Auto Regressive model in Error Correction form. Cointegration, the Law of One Price (LOP) and weak exogeneity are tested. The results reveal linkages from......Recent research has found that markets for farmed shrimp and wild-caught northern shrimp in Europe are integrated, indicating that northern shrimp prices are affected by total supply and demand of shrimp. Thus, the continued growth of global aquaculture production and associated price decline...

  15. Forecasting the evolution in the mixing regime of a deep subalpine lake under climate change scenarios through numerical modelling (Lake Maggiore, Northern Italy/Southern Switzerland)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fenocchi, Andrea; Rogora, Michela; Sibilla, Stefano; Ciampittiello, Marzia; Dresti, Claudia

    2018-01-01

    The impact of air temperature rise is eminent for the large deep lakes in the Italian subalpine district, climate change being caused there by both natural phenomena and anthropogenic greenhouse-gases (GHG) emissions. These oligomictic lakes are experiencing a decrease in the frequency of winter full turnover and an intensification of stability. As a result, hypolimnetic oxygen concentrations are decreasing and nutrients are accumulating in bottom water, with effects on the whole ecosystem functioning. Forecasting the future evolution of the mixing pattern is relevant to assess if a reduction in GHG releases would be able to revert such processes. The study focuses on Lake Maggiore, for which the thermal structure evolution under climate change in the 2016-2085 period was assessed through numerical simulations, performed with the General Lake Model (GLM). Different prospects of regional air temperature rise were considered, given by the Swiss Climate Change Scenarios CH2011. Multiple realisations were performed for each scenario to obtain robust statistical predictions, adopting random series of meteorological data produced with the Vector-Autoregressive Weather Generator (VG). Results show that a reversion in the increasing thermal stability would be possible only if global GHG emissions started to be reduced by 2020, allowing an equilibrium mixing regime to be restored by the end of the twenty-first century. Otherwise, persistent lack of complete-mixing, severe water warming and extensive effects on water quality are to be expected for the centuries to come. These projections can be extended to the other lakes in the subalpine district.

  16. Northern micro-grid project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Curtis, David; Singh, Bob

    2010-09-15

    The electrical distribution system for the Kasabonika Lake First Nation in northern Ontario (Canada) consumed 1.2 million liters of diesel fuel in 2008, amounting to 3,434 tones of CO2 emissions. The Northern Micro-Grid Project, supported by seven partners, involves integrating renewable generation & storage into the Kasabonika Lake distribution system. Through R&D and demonstration, the objectives are to reduce the amount of diesel consumed, support the distribution system exclusively on renewable resources during light loads, engage and impart knowledge/training to better position the community for future opportunities. The paper will discuss challenges, opportunities and future plans associated with the project.

  17. Titan's Stratospheric Condensibles at High Northern Latitudes During Northern Winter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, Carrie; Samuelson, R.; Achterberg, R.

    2012-01-01

    The Infrared Interferometer Spectrometer (IRIS) instrument on board Voyager 1 caught the first glimpse of an unidentified particulate feature in Titan's stratosphere that spectrally peaks at 221 per centimeter. Until recently, this feature that we have termed 'the haystack,' has been seen persistently at high northern latitudes with the Composite Infrared Spectrometer (CIRS) instrument onboard Cassini, The strength of the haystack emission feature diminishes rapidly with season, becoming drastically reduced at high northern latitudes, as Titan transitions from northern winter into spring, In contrast to IRIS whose shortest wavenumber was 200 per centimeter, CIRS extends down to 10 per centimeter, thus revealing an entirely unexplored spectral region in which nitrile ices have numerous broad lattice vibration features, Unlike the haystack, which is only found at high northern latitudes during northern winter/early northern spring, this geometrically thin nitrile cloud pervades Titan's lower stratosphere, spectrally peaking at 160 per centimeter, and is almost global in extent spanning latitudes 85 N to 600 S, The inference of nitrile ices are consistent with the highly restricted altitude ranges over which these features are observed, and appear to be dominated by a mixture of HCN and HC3N, The narrow range in altitude over which the nitrile ices extend is unlike the haystack, whose vertical distribution is significantly broader, spanning roughly 70 kilometers in altitude in Titan's lower stratosphere, The nitrile clouds that CIRS observes are located in a dynamically stable region of Titan's atmosphere, whereas CH4 clouds, which ordinarily form in the troposphere, form in a more dynamically unstable region, where convective cloud systems tend to occur. In the unusual situation where Titan's tropopause cools significantly from the HASI 70.5K temperature minimum, CH4 should condense in Titan's lower stratosphere, just like the aforementioned nitrile clouds, although

  18. Risk assessment of precipitation extremes in northern Xinjiang, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Jun; Pei, Ying; Zhang, Yanwei; Ge, Quansheng

    2018-05-01

    This study was conducted using daily precipitation records gathered at 37 meteorological stations in northern Xinjiang, China, from 1961 to 2010. We used the extreme value theory model, generalized extreme value (GEV) and generalized Pareto distribution (GPD), statistical distribution function to fit outputs of precipitation extremes with different return periods to estimate risks of precipitation extremes and diagnose aridity-humidity environmental variation and corresponding spatial patterns in northern Xinjiang. Spatiotemporal patterns of daily maximum precipitation showed that aridity-humidity conditions of northern Xinjiang could be well represented by the return periods of the precipitation data. Indices of daily maximum precipitation were effective in the prediction of floods in the study area. By analyzing future projections of daily maximum precipitation (2, 5, 10, 30, 50, and 100 years), we conclude that the flood risk will gradually increase in northern Xinjiang. GEV extreme value modeling yielded the best results, proving to be extremely valuable. Through example analysis for extreme precipitation models, the GEV statistical model was superior in terms of favorable analog extreme precipitation. The GPD model calculation results reflect annual precipitation. For most of the estimated sites' 2 and 5-year T for precipitation levels, GPD results were slightly greater than GEV results. The study found that extreme precipitation reaching a certain limit value level will cause a flood disaster. Therefore, predicting future extreme precipitation may aid warnings of flood disaster. A suitable policy concerning effective water resource management is thus urgently required.

  19. Imaging Lithospheric-scale Structure Beneath Northern Altiplano in Southern Peru and Northern Bolivia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, A.; Wagner, L. S.; Beck, S. L.; Zandt, G.; Long, M. D.

    2014-12-01

    The northern Altiplano plateau of southern Peru and northern Bolivia is one of the highest topographic features on the Earth, flanked by Western and Eastern Cordillera along its margin. It has strongly influenced the local and far field lithospheric deformation since the early Miocene (Masek et al., 1994). Previous studies have emphasized the importance of both the crust and upper mantle in the evolution of Altiplano plateau (McQuarrie et al., 2005). Early tomographic and receiver function studies, south of 16° S, show significant variations in the crust and upper mantle properties in both perpendicular and along strike direction of the Altiplano plateau (Dorbath et. al., 1993; Myers et al., 1998; Beck and Zandt, 2002). In order to investigate the nature of subsurface lithospheric structure below the northern Altiplano, between 15-18° S, we have determined three-dimensional seismic tomography models for Vp and Vs using P and S-wave travel time data from two recently deployed local seismic networks of CAUGHT and PULSE. We also used data from 8 stations from the PERUSE network (PERU Subduction Experiment). Our preliminary tomographic models show a complex variation in the upper mantle velocity structure with depth, northwest and southeast of lake Titicaca. We see the following trend, at ~85 km depth, northwest of lake Titicaca: low Vp and Vs beneath the Western Cordillera, high Vs beneath the Altiplano and low Vp and Vs beneath the Eastern Cordillera. This low velocity anomaly, beneath Eastern Cordillera, seems to coincide with Kimsachata, a Holocene volcano in southern Peru. At depth greater than ~85 km: we find high velocity anomaly beneath the Western Cordillera and low Vs beneath the Altiplano. This high velocity anomaly, beneath Western Cordillera, coincides with the well-located Wadati-Benioff zone seismicity and perhaps represents the subducting Nazca slab. On the southeast of lake Titicaca, in northern Bolivia, we see a consistently high velocity anomaly

  20. Coupling between the environment and the pelagic resources exploited off northern Chile: ecosystem indicators and a conceptual model Acoplamiento entre el ambiente y los recursos pelágicos explotados en el norte de Chile: un modelo conceptual

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eleuterio Yáñez

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available The eastern boundary of the Chile-Peru Current System constitutes one of the most biologically productive ecosystems in the world, due largely to coastal upwelling and the horizontal advection of nutrients. In this ecosystem, El Niño events are of great importance in the interannual variability of the environment. A change was observed in the environmental regime at the beginning of the 1970s with the onset of the 1972-1973 El Niño, marking an important decrease in the anchovy fishery (Engraulis ringens. After the mid-1970s, sardine (Sardinops sagax landings increased noticeably. A second regime shift at the end of the 1980s was seen mostly in the noticeable recovery of anchovy and the decline of sardine. Herein, we present an integrated conceptual model of the different local and large-scale phenomena that affect the marine environment off northern Chile and the distribution and abundance of pelagic resources. The model considers an analysis of environmental and bio-fishery data on different scales and describes how the interdecadal (associated with re-gime shifts and interannual (associated with El Niño events fluctuations in the Equatorial Pacific are mani-fested in the eastern South Pacific and, therefore, in the northern zone off Chile, affecting the annual eyele, the dynamic of the coastal trapped waves, and coastal upwelling. In this framework, interdecadal fluctuations play an important role in the anchovy-sardine-anchovy replacement sequence.El borde oriental del Sistema de Corrientes de Chile-Perú constituye uno de los ecosistemas de mayor productividad biológica del mundo, debido principalmente a la surgencia costera y advección horizontal de nutrientes. En este ecosistema, los eventos El Niño son de mayor importancia en la variabilidad interanual del ambiente. No obstante, un cambio de régimen ambiental es observado a inicio de los 70's el que hubiera comenzado con El Niño 1972-73 y que marca la gran disminución de la

  1. Continental margin evolution of the northern Arabian platform in Syria

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Best, J.A.; Barazangi, M. (Cornell Univ., Ithaca, NY (United States)); Al-Saad, D.; Sawaf, T.; Gebran, A. (Syrian Petroleum Company, Damascus (Syrian Arab Republic))

    1993-02-01

    Synthesis of available geological and geophysical data in the Syrian Arab Republic permits a descriptive account of the pre-Cenozoic geologic history of the northern Arabian platform. The northern Arabian platform appears to be a composite plate similar up to that interpreted in the rocks of the Arabian shield. The structural and stratigraphic relationships of the Paleozoic and Mesozoic sedimentary sections in Syria record the transformation of an eastward-facing Gondwana passive margin in the early Paleozoic into a westward-facing Levantine margin in the Mesozoic, at which time the northern platform was closely associated with the creation of the eastern Mediterranean basin. Timing of the margin transformation is inferred from the orientation and thickness variations of Lower Triassic rocks, but the transformation may have initiated as early as the Permian. The diversity and timing of geological features in Syria suggest that the northern Arabian platform did not behave as a rigid plate throughout its geological history. The present-day Palmyride mountain belt, located within the northern Arabian platform in Syria and initiated in the early Mesozoic as a northeast-trending rift nearly perpendicular to the Levantine margin, subsequently was inverted in the Cenozoic by transpression. The location of the rift may be associated with the reactivation of a zone of crustal weakness, i.e., a Proterozoic suture zone previously proposed from modeling of Bouguer gravity data. Thus, the northern and southern parts of the Arabian platform are similar in their respective geologic histories during the Proterozoic and Paleozoic; however, the northern Arabian platform was greatly affected by Mesozoic rifting and the creation of the eastern Mediterranean basin during the Mesozoic. 13 figs.

  2. June 1990 Northern, Iran Images

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A magnitude 7.7 earthquake occurred in the Gilan Province between the towns of Rudbar and Manjil in northern Iran on Thursday, June 21, 1990 (June 20 at 21:00 GMT)....

  3. Participatory Simulation of Land-Use Changes in the Northern Mountains of Vietnam: the Combined Use of an Agent-Based Model, a Role-Playing Game, and a Geographic Information System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jean-Christophe Castella

    2005-06-01

    Full Text Available In Vietnam, the remarkable economic growth that resulted from the doi moi (renovation reforms was based largely on the rural households that had become the new basic unit of agricultural production in the early 1990s. The technical, economic, and social changes that accompanied the decollectivization process transformed agricultural production, resource management, land use, and the institutions that defined access to resources and their distribution. Combined with the extreme biophysical, technical, and social heterogeneity encountered in the northern mountains, these rapid changes led to the extreme complexity of the agrarian dynamics that today challenges traditional diagnostic approaches. Since 1999, a participatory simulation method has been developed to disentangle the cause-and-effect relationships between the different driving forces and changes in land use observed at different scales. Several tools were combined to understand the interactions between human and natural systems, including a narrative conceptual model, an agent-based spatial computational model (ABM, a role-playing game, and a multiscale geographic information system (GIS. We synthesized into an ABM named SAMBA-GIS the knowledge generated from the above tools applied to a representative sample of research sites. The model takes explicitly into account the dynamic interactions among: (1 farmers' strategies, i.e., the individual decision-making process as a function of the farm's resource profile; (2 the institutions that define resource access and usage; and (3 changes in the biophysical and socioeconomic environment. The next step consisted of coupling the ABM with the GIS to extrapolate the application of local management rules to a whole landscape. Simulations are initialized using the layers of the GIS, e.g., land use in 1990, accessibility, soil characteristics, etc., and statistics available at the village level, e.g., population, ethnicity, livestock, etc. At each

  4. Identifying water mass depletion in northern Iraq observed by GRACE

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mulder, G.; Olsthoorn, T.N.; Al-manmi, D.A.M.A.; Schrama, E.J.O.; Smidt, E.H.

    2015-01-01

    Observations acquired by Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission indicate a mass loss of 146 ± 6 mm equivalent water height (EWH) in northern Iraq between 2007 and 2009. These data are used as an independent validation of lake mass variations and a rainfall-runoff model, which is

  5. Rainfall response to dam/irrigation projects in northern Nigeria ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In this paper, we examine the possibility that the increasing number and size of dam/irrigation projects in northern Nigeria are having a corresponding increase in rainfall in spite of the threat of climate change. We modeled the rainfall trends over 11 meteorological stations over a period of 34 years (1971 - 2004). The trends ...

  6. The lemmatization of copulatives in northern Sotho | Prinsloo | Lexikos

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The aim of this article is to offer solutions to the lemmatization problems regarding copulatives in Northern Sotho and to propose guiding entries for paper and electronic dictionaries which could serve as models for future dictionaries. It will be illustrated that the maximum utilisation of macrostructural and microstructural ...

  7. Temperature variations as evidence of climate change in northern ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The paper seeks to investigate whether evolving temperature patterns over northern Nigeria agree with the projections made by global warming and climate change models. The data used are screen air temperature on a monthly time scale. These data were obtained from the database of the Nigerian Meteorological ...

  8. Conservation reserve program: benefit for grassland birds in the northern plains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reynolds, R.E.; Shaffer, T.L.; Sauer, J.R.; Peterjohn, B.G.

    1994-01-01

    During the past few decades numbers of some species of upland-nesting birds in North America have declined. Duck species such as mallard (Anas platyrhynchos), northern pintail (A. acuta) and blue-winged teal (A. discors) have declined since the early 1970s and have remained low since 1985 (Caithamer et al. 1993). Some grassland-dependent nonwaterfowl species also have declined since 1966, as indicated by the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) (Robbins et al. 1986). For prairie-nesting ducks, population declines can be attributed mostly to low recruitment, partially as a result of low nest success. Klett et al. (1988) concluded that nest success (probability of ≥1 egg of clutch hatches) in much of the U.S. Prairie Pothole Region was inadequate to maintain populations of the five most common upland-nesting duck species studied, and that predators were the most important cause of nest failure. Over the years, as grassland areas have been converted to cropland, ducks have concentrated their nesting in the remaining areas of available habitat, where predators such as red fox (Vulpes vulpes), striped skunk (Mephitis mephitis) and badger (Taxidea taxus) forage (Cowardin et al. 1983). The reasons for declining populations of grassland nonwaterfowl birds are not clear but the loss of suitable grassland-nesting habitat probably is an important factor. Currently, approximately 95 percent of the land in North Dakota is used for agricultural purposes, of which over 60 percent is used for annual crop production (Haugse 1990). Of the grassland that remains, 95 percent is used for livestock production. This probably had a severe impact on grassland bird species that seek idle grass cover for nesting. The 1985 and 1990 U.S. Farm Bills include provisions under the Food Security Act to fund a cropland-idling program called the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP). Over 36 million acres have been enrolled nationwide in the CRP since 1985 (Osborn 1993), and up to 25 percent of

  9. Impacts of Northern Pike on stocked Rainbow Trout in Pactola Reservoir, South Dakota

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scheibel, Natalie C.; Dembkowski, Daniel J.; Davis, Jacob L.; Chipps, Steven R.

    2016-01-01

    Establishment of nonnative Northern Pike Esox lucius in Pactola Reservoir, South Dakota, has prompted concern among biologists about the influence of this species on the lake’s intensively managed salmonid fisheries. Ancedotal information suggests that catch rates of Rainbow Trout Oncorhynchus mykiss have declined while mean size and abundance of Northern Pike has increased, although quantitative information on diet and growth of the Northern Pike population is lacking. To address potential interactions between Northern Pike and Rainbow Trout, we assessed size-dependent predation by Northern Pike on Rainbow Trout and determined the relative energetic contribution of stocked Rainbow Trout to Northern Pike growth using bioenergetics modeling. Stable isotopes combined with traditional diet analyses revealed that smaller Northern Pike (Trout contributed less than 10% to their annual energy consumption. In contrast, larger Northern Pike (≥600 mm TL) consumed primarily Rainbow Trout, which accounted for 56% of their annual energy consumption. Combining estimates of Northern Pike predation with production costs of catchable-size Rainbow Trout revealed that annual economic losses ranged from US$15,259 to $24,801 per year. Over its lifespan, an age-10 Northern Pike was estimated to consume ~117 Rainbow Trout worth approximately $340. Thus, Northern Pike predation substantially influences salmonid management initiatives and is likely a primary factor contributing to reduced Rainbow Trout abundance and return to anglers in Pactola Reservoir. Strategies for reducing Northern Pike predation on Rainbow Trout include increasing the size of stocked fish or altering the timing and spatial distribution of stocking events.

  10. Study of the pollution exchange between Bulgaria and Northern Greece

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zerefos, C.; Vasaras, A.; Syrakov, D.; Ganev, K.

    2000-01-01

    The present work aims at a detailed study and explanation of the pollution transport in the air basin over South-Western Bulgaria and Northern Greece and assessment of the air pollution exchange between Bulgaria and Greece. Some well known specific climatic air pollution effects were studied and explained. Calculations were made of the S0 2 pollution of the Balkan peninsula from both Greek and Bulgarian sources for 1995 and the country to country pollution budget diagrams were build. Days with extreme mean concentration for Bulgaria and Northern Greece were picked out and some further specification of the contribution of the different sources in both the countries to these cases of extreme pollution was made. Some preliminary studies of possible mesoscale effects on the pollution exchange between Bulgaria and northern Greece were carried out. A three-layer pollution transport model with more complex chemistry block was introduced and some preliminary simulations of Sulfur and Nitrogen compounds transport were performed. (author)

  11. Offshore northern Europe, the challenges

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bergseth, S.

    1996-01-01

    This paper relates to challenges of the offshore activity in the North Sea. It is appropriate to address these challenges in the context of generating values through efficient management of resources, markets, safety and technology, as the challenges lie therein. The petroleum industry is built to turn natural resources into market value, assuring broad benefits to stake holders and shareholders. In the following, the challenges facing the industry the industry offshore Northern Europe is examined on this background

  12. Edible insects of Northern Angola

    OpenAIRE

    Lautenschläger,Thea; Neinhuis,Christoph; Monizi,Mawunu; Mandombe,José Lau; Förster,Anke; Henle,Thomas; Nuss,Matthias

    2017-01-01

    From 2013–2017, we accompanied and interviewed local people harvesting edible insects in the Northern Angolan province of Uíge. Insect and host plant samples were collected for species identification and nutritive analyses. Additionally, live caterpillars were taken to feed and keep until pupation and eclosion of the imago, necessary for morphological species identification. Altogether, 18 insect species eaten by humans were recorded. Twenty four edible insect species were formerly known from...

  13. Exfoliation syndrome in Northern Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Idakwo U

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Ugbede Idakwo,1 Olusola Olawoye,2 Benedictus GK Ajayi,1 Robert Ritch3 1Eleta Eye Institute, Ibadan, Nigeria; 2Department of Ophthalmology, College of Medicine, University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria; 3Einhorn Clinical Research Center, Department of Ophthalmology, New York Eye and Ear Infirmary of Mount Sinai, New York, NY, USA Purpose: To estimate the frequency of exfoliation syndrome (XFS and its association with ocular diseases in Northern Nigeria.Materials and methods: Consecutive patients who presented to the outpatient department of ECWA Eye Hospital Kano from February 2015 to May 2015 were included in the study. Each patient had a complete ophthalmic examination. The anterior segment examination included tonometry, gonioscopy, and detailed slit-lamp examination to assess for the presence or absence of exfoliation material, inflammatory cells, and other abnormal findings. Patients with exfoliation material on the anterior lens surface and/or pupillary margin in either or both eyes were considered to have XFS. Statistical analysis was performed using the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences version 16.0.Results: A total of 620 patients living in Northern Nigeria from the 6 geopolitical zones were examined. The majority of them (34.5% were indigenous Hausas. There was a male preponderance of 56.6%, while the mean age at presentation for examination in all age groups was 55.7±13.7 years. There were 9 patients with XFS; the frequency was 1.5%, with most of the patients being 70–80 years old. In patients who were ≥50 years, the frequency was 2.5%. Patients with XFS had a higher mean age of 68±4.9 years. The frequency of XFS among glaucoma patients was 4.4%, while among cataract patients it was 3.7%. No other associated ocular disease was found in the patients with XFS.Conclusion: This study shows that XFS does exist in Northern Nigeria, as was found in the South. The prevalence of XFS was, however, not reported in the Nigerian

  14. Stigma, disclosure, coping, and medication adherence among people living with HIV/AIDS in Northern Tanzania

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lyimo, R.A.; Stutterheim, S.E.; Hospers, H.J.; de Glee, T.; van der Ven, A.; de Bruin, M.

    2014-01-01

    This study examines a proposed theoretical model examining the interrelationships between stigma, disclosure, coping, and medication adherence among 158 HIV-infected patients on antiretroviral therapy (ART) in northern Tanzania. Perceived and self-stigma, voluntary and involuntary disclosure,

  15. Responses of northern forest plants to atmospheric changes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Laine, K.; Huttunen, S.; Kauppi, M.; Ohtonen, R.; Laehdesmaeki, P. [Oulu Univ. (Finland). Dept. of Biology

    1996-12-31

    This research programme has been under way since 1990 to study the long-term synergistic effects of air pollutants and changing climatic conditions on the northern forest ecosystem and to increase the knowledge of climatic change and its consequences for the fragile northern nature. Ecological, physiological, morphological and biochemical methods have been used to study the responses of forest trees, dwarf shrubs, lichens and soil biology to environmental changes. The research programme is divided into four subprojects concentrating on different ecosystem levels. The subprojects are: (1) life, growth and survival strategies of northern dwarf shrubs under the pressure of a changing environment, (2) forest trees under the impact of air pollutants, increasing CO{sub 2} and UV-B, (3) susceptibility of lichens to air pollution and climatic change and (4) impact of elevated atmospheric CO{sub 2} and O{sub 3} on soil biology with special reference to carbon allocation and N fixation in symbiotic systems. This report summarizes the results of short-term experiments which showed many ecological and physiological changes in almost all elements of the northern boreal forests. These species-level measurements focused on the key species of the northern boreal forest, which have been thought to be useful in large-scale ecosystem experiments and modelling. The results will also facilitate the further studies on the patterns of plant species distribution and northern ecosystem function with respect to the environmental parameters that are expected to change along with global change (e.g. temperature, airchemistry, UV-B, snow condition)

  16. Responses of northern forest plants to atmospheric changes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Laine, K; Huttunen, S; Kauppi, M; Ohtonen, R; Laehdesmaeki, P [Oulu Univ. (Finland). Dept. of Biology

    1997-12-31

    This research programme has been under way since 1990 to study the long-term synergistic effects of air pollutants and changing climatic conditions on the northern forest ecosystem and to increase the knowledge of climatic change and its consequences for the fragile northern nature. Ecological, physiological, morphological and biochemical methods have been used to study the responses of forest trees, dwarf shrubs, lichens and soil biology to environmental changes. The research programme is divided into four subprojects concentrating on different ecosystem levels. The subprojects are: (1) life, growth and survival strategies of northern dwarf shrubs under the pressure of a changing environment, (2) forest trees under the impact of air pollutants, increasing CO{sub 2} and UV-B, (3) susceptibility of lichens to air pollution and climatic change and (4) impact of elevated atmospheric CO{sub 2} and O{sub 3} on soil biology with special reference to carbon allocation and N fixation in symbiotic systems. This report summarizes the results of short-term experiments which showed many ecological and physiological changes in almost all elements of the northern boreal forests. These species-level measurements focused on the key species of the northern boreal forest, which have been thought to be useful in large-scale ecosystem experiments and modelling. The results will also facilitate the further studies on the patterns of plant species distribution and northern ecosystem function with respect to the environmental parameters that are expected to change along with global change (e.g. temperature, airchemistry, UV-B, snow condition)

  17. Livestock Farming Systems in the Northern Tablelands of NSW: An Economic Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Alford, Andrew R.; Griffith, Garry R.; Davies, Lloyd

    2003-01-01

    The Northern Tablelands region of New South Wales covers an area of approximately 3.12 million hectares including 2.11 million hectares occupied by some 2300 agricultural establishments producing agricultural commodities valued at more than $220 million. Sheep and wool production and cattle production are the dominant agricultural enterprises. In this Report, a whole-farm model of a representative livestock farming system in the Northern Tablelands is developed. Whole-farm economic models of ...

  18. Pteridophyta collected in Northern Nigeria and Northern Cameroon

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jan kornaś

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available 25 species of Pteridophyta were collected in Northern Nigeria (mainly the Lake Chad Basin and the Mandara Mts. and in the neighbouring parts of Cameroon. 11 of them have not been recorded previously from this area: Isoetes schweinfurthii A. Br. in Bak., Selaginella tenerrima A. Br. ex Kuhn, Ophioglossum gomenzianum Welw. ex A. Br., Marsilea coromandeliana Willd., M. distorta A. Br., M. nubica A. Br., M. subterranea Lepr. ex A. Br., Azolla africana Desv., Ceratopteris richardii Brogn., Adiantum capillus-veneris Linn., and Actiniopleris semiflabellata Pic. Ser.

  19. Carbon monoxide budget in the northern hemisphere

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bakwin, P.S.; Tans, P.P. (Climate Monitoring and Diagnostics Lab., Boulder, CO (United States)); Novelli, P.C. (Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States))

    1994-03-15

    To improve urban air quality the major industrialized nations of the West took steps during the 1970s and 1980s to reduce carbon monoxide (CO) emissions from automobiles and other industrial sources. Overall, CO/CO[sub 2] emission ratios from the mix of fossil fuel combustion sources have been reduced by about half during 1976-1990. Also, the tropospheric abundance of hydroxyl radical (OH), which is the main sink for CO, is proposed to have increased globally by about 1.0 [+-] 0.8% yr[sup [minus]1]. The authors use a simple two-box model to examine the impact of shrinking emissions and increasing OH on the global abundance of CO. They find that these factors contribute about equally in reducing CO levels in the Northern Hemisphere troposphere by about 1.8 [+-] 0.8 ppb yr[sup [minus]1] on average. 19 refs., 1 fig.

  20. Seismic activity prediction using computational intelligence techniques in northern Pakistan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asim, Khawaja M.; Awais, Muhammad; Martínez-Álvarez, F.; Iqbal, Talat

    2017-10-01

    Earthquake prediction study is carried out for the region of northern Pakistan. The prediction methodology includes interdisciplinary interaction of seismology and computational intelligence. Eight seismic parameters are computed based upon the past earthquakes. Predictive ability of these eight seismic parameters is evaluated in terms of information gain, which leads to the selection of six parameters to be used in prediction. Multiple computationally intelligent models have been developed for earthquake prediction using selected seismic parameters. These models include feed-forward neural network, recurrent neural network, random forest, multi layer perceptron, radial basis neural network, and support vector machine. The performance of every prediction model is evaluated and McNemar's statistical test is applied to observe the statistical significance of computational methodologies. Feed-forward neural network shows statistically significant predictions along with accuracy of 75% and positive predictive value of 78% in context of northern Pakistan.

  1. Fishing for Northern Pike in Minnesota: A comparison of anglers and dark house spearers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schroeder, Susan A.; Fulton, David C.

    2014-01-01

    In order to project fishing effort and demand of individuals targeting Northern Pike Esox lucius in Minnesota, it is important to understand the catch orientations, management preferences, and site choice preferences of those individuals. Northern Pike are specifically targeted by about 35% of the approximately 1.5 million licensed anglers in Minnesota and by approximately 14,000–15,000 dark house spearers. Dark house spearing is a traditional method of harvesting fish through the ice in winter. Mail surveys were distributed to three research strata: anglers targeting Northern Pike, dark house spearing license holders spearing Northern Pike, and dark house spearing license holders angling for Northern Pike. Dark house spearers, whether spearing or angling, reported a stronger orientation toward keeping Northern Pike than did anglers. Anglers reported a stronger orientation toward catching large Northern Pike than did dark house spearers when spearing or angling. Northern Pike regulations were the most important attribute affecting site choice for respondents in all three strata. Models for all strata indicated a preference for lakes without protected slot limits. However, protected slot limits had a stronger negative influence on lake preference for dark house spearing licensees (whether spearing or angling) than for anglers.

  2. The Northern Manitoba Mining Academy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexandre, Paul

    2017-04-01

    The Northern Manitoba Mining Academy (NMMA, miningacademy.ca) is a new educational institution located in Flin Flon, Manitoba. It is associated with the University College of the North and is specifically intended to serve the needs of the Northern Manitoban communities with regards to job creation by providing training in a variety of mining, construction, and exploration related areas. NMMA's mission is to provide innovative and responsible solutions for the creation of a knowledgeable, skilled, and sustainable workforce within a vibrant, mineral-rich resource industry. It facilitates strategic training initiatives and research activities in order to strengthen the social, economic, and environmental benefits of a robust mining and resources sector. In terms of education, NMMA offers its own programs, mostly short courses in health and safety, courses organized by the University College of the North (wilderness safety, prospecting, and exploration), and courses organized in association with provincial Industries-Based Safety Programs and Associations (a variety of construction-related trades). However, the programming is not limited to those courses already on the syllabus: the Academy operates on open-doors policy and welcomes people with their unique and diverse needs; it prides itself in its ability to tailor or create specific on-demand courses and deliver them locally in the North. The Northern Manitoba Mining Academy also provides access to its world-class facilities for field-based undergraduate courses, as well as graduate students and researchers doing field work. Full sample preparation facilities are offered to students and scientists in all natural and environmental sciences.

  3. Northern communities sustainable energy initiative

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oltman, Ursula; Widmeyer, Scott; Moen, Harlan

    2010-09-15

    The Circumpolar North may provide the solution to the world's most urgent problems. Combining new technologies with the resources, opportunities and needs of the north, the Arctic region may become instrumental in promoting nature's ability to sequester natural carbons while supplying future energy demands to the world. With the technologies for efficiencies and CCS, the abundant supply of natural gas exists for an efficient northern network of electrical generating facilities in the circumpolar region. A symbiotic relationship between facilities can ensure dependable clean electricity and support East-West distribution of power across international time zones strategically connected to southern grids.

  4. Nature: a colour comparison between Northern South Africa and Northern Australia

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Baumbach, J

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available During 1983 DSTO in Australia measured the reflectances of grass, trees and soil in northern Australia, using a custom-build spectroradiometer. During 2002 CSIR in South Africa performed similar measurements in northern South Africa, using a...

  5. Giant Reed Distribution - Northern California [ds333

    Data.gov (United States)

    California Natural Resource Agency — The Arundo Distribution layer is a compilation of Arundo donax observations in northern and central California, obtained from several sources, including Arundo...

  6. Herpetofauna Surveys, Northern California - 2010 [ds694

    Data.gov (United States)

    California Natural Resource Agency — We recorded all incidental herpetofauna encountered during visual encounter and dipnet surveys in northern California. Surveys took place from April 2, 2010 to...

  7. The Lemmatization of Copulatives in Northern Sotho *

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D.J. Prinsloo

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available

    Abstract: For learners of Northern Sotho as a second or even foreign language, the copulative system is probably the most complicated grammatical system to master. The encoding needs of such learners, i.e. to find enough information in dictionaries in order to actively use copulatives in speech and writing, are poorly served in currently available dictionaries. The aim of this article is to offer solutions to the lemmatization problems regarding copulatives in Northern Sotho and to propose guiding entries for paper and electronic dictionaries which could serve as models for future dictionaries. It will be illustrated that the maximum utilisation of macrostructural and microstructural strategies as well as the mediostructure is called for in order to reach this objective. Prere