WorldWideScience

Sample records for models making results

  1. SModelS: A Tool for Making Systematic Use of Simplified Models Results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waltenberger, Wolfgang; SModelS Group.

    2016-10-01

    We present an automated software tool ”SModelS” to systematically confront theories Beyond the Standard Model (BSM) with experimental data. The tool consists of a general procedure to decompose such BSM theories into their Simplified Models Spectra (SMS). In addition, SModelS features a database containing the majority of the published SMS results of CMS and ATLAS. These results consist of the 95% confidence level upper limits on signal production cross sections. The two components together allow us to quickly confront any BSM model with LHC results. As a show-case example we will briefly discuss an application of our procedure to a specific supersymmetric model. It is one of our ongoing efforts to extend the framework to include also efficiency maps produced either by the experimental collaborations, by efforts performed within the phenomenological groups, or possibly also by ourselves. While the current implementation can handle null results only, it is our ultimate goal to build the Next Standard Model in a bottom-up fashion from both negative and positive results of several experiments. The implementation is open source, written in python, and available from http://smodels.hephy.at.

  2. Exploring the experiences of client involvement in medication decisions using a shared decision making model: results of a qualitative study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goscha, Richard; Rapp, Charles

    2015-04-01

    This qualitative study explored a newly introduced model of shared decision making (CommonGround) and how psychiatric medications were experienced by clients, prescribers, case managers and peer support staff. Of the twelve client subjects, six were highly engaged in shared decision-making and six were not. Five notable differences were found between the two groups including the presence of a goal, use of personal medicine, and the behavior of case managers and prescribers. Implications for a shared decision making model in psychiatry are discussed.

  3. Making business models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gudiksen, Sune Klok; Poulsen, Søren Bolvig; Buur, Jacob

    2014-01-01

    Well-established companies are currently struggling to secure profits due to the pressure from new players' business models as they take advantage of communication technology and new business-model configurations. Because of this, the business model research field flourishes currently; however......, the modelling approaches proposed still rely on linear, rational conceptions and causal reasoning. Through six business cases we argue that participatory design has a role to play, and indeed, can lead the way into another approach to business modelling, which we call business model making. The paper...... illustrates how the application of participatory business model design toolsets can open up discussions on alternative scenarios through improvisation, mock-up making and design game playing, before qualitative judgment on the most promising scenario is carried out....

  4. Making Inexpensive 3-D Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manos, Harry

    2016-01-01

    Visual aids are important to student learning, and they help make the teacher's job easier. Keeping with the "TPT" theme of "The Art, Craft, and Science of Physics Teaching," the purpose of this article is to show how teachers, lacking equipment and funds, can construct a durable 3-D model reference frame and a model gravity…

  5. A neural model of decision making

    OpenAIRE

    Larsen, Torben

    2008-01-01

    Background: A descriptive neuroeconomic model is aimed for relativity of the concept of economic man to empirical science.Method: A 4-level client-server-integrator model integrating the brain models of McLean and Luria is the general framework for the model of empirical findings.Results: Decision making relies on integration across brain levels of emotional intelligence (LU) and logico-matematico intelligence (RIA), respectively. The integrated decision making formula approaching zero by bot...

  6. A neural model of decision making

    OpenAIRE

    Larsen, Torben

    2008-01-01

    Background: A descriptive neuroeconomic model is aimed for relativity of the concept of economic man to empirical science.Method: A 4-level client-server-integrator model integrating the brain models of McLean and Luria is the general framework for the model of empirical findings.Results: Decision making relies on integration across brain levels of emotional intelligence (LU) and logico-matematico intelligence (RIA), respectively. The integrated decision making formula approaching zero by bot...

  7. Making Deformable Template Models Operational

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fisker, Rune

    2000-01-01

    Deformable template models are a very popular and powerful tool within the field of image processing and computer vision. This thesis treats this type of models extensively with special focus on handling their common difficulties, i.e. model parameter selection, initialization and optimization...... published during the Ph.D. project. To put these articles into the general context of deformable template models and to pass on an overview of the deformable template model literature, the thesis starts with a compact survey of the deformable template model literature with special focus on representation....... A proper handling of the common difficulties is essential for making the models operational by a non-expert user, which is a requirement for intensifying and commercializing the use of deformable template models. The thesis is organized as a collection of the most important articles, which has been...

  8. Intuitionistic preference modeling and interactive decision making

    CERN Document Server

    Xu, Zeshui

    2014-01-01

    This book offers an in-depth and comprehensive introduction to the priority methods of intuitionistic preference relations, the consistency and consensus improving procedures for intuitionistic preference relations, the approaches to group decision making based on intuitionistic preference relations, the approaches and models for interactive decision making with intuitionistic fuzzy information, and the extended results in interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy environments.

  9. [Mathematical models of decision making and learning].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ito, Makoto; Doya, Kenji

    2008-07-01

    Computational models of reinforcement learning have recently been applied to analysis of brain imaging and neural recording data to identity neural correlates of specific processes of decision making, such as valuation of action candidates and parameters of value learning. However, for such model-based analysis paradigms, selecting an appropriate model is crucial. In this study we analyze the process of choice learning in rats using stochastic rewards. We show that "Q-learning," which is a standard reinforcement learning algorithm, does not adequately reflect the features of choice behaviors. Thus, we propose a generalized reinforcement learning (GRL) algorithm that incorporates the negative reward effect of reward loss and forgetting of values of actions not chosen. Using the Bayesian estimation method for time-varying parameters, we demonstrated that the GRL algorithm can predict an animal's choice behaviors as efficiently as the best Markov model. The results suggest the usefulness of the GRL for the model-based analysis of neural processes involved in decision making.

  10. Modeling Non-Standard Financial Decision Making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R.J.D. Potter van Loon (Rogier)

    2014-01-01

    markdownabstractThere are clear theoretical predictions on how a rational person should make financial decisions. When real-life choices are made, however, people often deviate from what economic theory prescribes. This thesis investigates the modeling of non-standard financial decision making by an

  11. Human-centric decision-making models for social sciences

    CERN Document Server

    Pedrycz, Witold

    2014-01-01

    The volume delivers a wealth of effective methods to deal with various types of uncertainty inherently existing in human-centric decision problems. It elaborates on  comprehensive decision frameworks to handle different decision scenarios, which help use effectively the explicit and tacit knowledge and intuition, model perceptions and preferences in a more human-oriented style. The book presents original approaches and delivers new results on fundamentals and applications related to human-centered decision making approaches to business, economics and social systems. Individual chapters cover multi-criteria (multiattribute) decision making, decision making with prospect theory, decision making with incomplete probabilistic information, granular models of decision making and decision making realized with the use of non-additive measures. New emerging decision theories being presented as along with a wide spectrum of ongoing research make the book valuable to all interested in the field of advanced decision-mak...

  12. Simulation Models of Human Decision-Making Processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nina RIZUN

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available The main purpose of the paper is presentation of the new concept of human decision-making process modeling via using the analogy with Automatic Control Theory. From the author's point of view this concept allows to develop and improve the theory of decision-making in terms of the study and classification of specificity of the human intellectual processes in different conditions. It was proved that the main distinguishing feature between the Heuristic / Intuitive and Rational Decision-Making Models is the presence of so-called phenomenon of "enrichment" of the input information with human propensity, hobbies, tendencies, expectations, axioms and judgments, presumptions or bias and their justification. In order to obtain additional knowledge about the basic intellectual processes as well as the possibility of modeling the decision results in various parameters characterizing the decision-maker, the complex of the simulation models was developed. These models are based on the assumptions that:  basic intellectual processes of the Rational Decision-Making Model can be adequately simulated and identified by the transient processes of the proportional-integral-derivative controller; basic intellectual processes of the Bounded Rationality and Intuitive Models can be adequately simulated and identified by the transient processes of the nonlinear elements.The taxonomy of the most typical automatic control theory elements and their compliance with certain decision-making models with a point of view of decision-making process specificity and decision-maker behavior during a certain time of professional activity was obtained.

  13. Evolution of quantum-like modeling in decision making processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khrennikova, Polina

    2012-12-01

    The application of the mathematical formalism of quantum mechanics to model behavioral patterns in social science and economics is a novel and constantly emerging field. The aim of the so called 'quantum like' models is to model the decision making processes in a macroscopic setting, capturing the particular 'context' in which the decisions are taken. Several subsequent empirical findings proved that when making a decision people tend to violate the axioms of expected utility theory and Savage's Sure Thing principle, thus violating the law of total probability. A quantum probability formula was devised to describe more accurately the decision making processes. A next step in the development of QL-modeling in decision making was the application of Schrödinger equation to describe the evolution of people's mental states. A shortcoming of Schrödinger equation is its inability to capture dynamics of an open system; the brain of the decision maker can be regarded as such, actively interacting with the external environment. Recently the master equation, by which quantum physics describes the process of decoherence as the result of interaction of the mental state with the environmental 'bath', was introduced for modeling the human decision making. The external environment and memory can be referred to as a complex 'context' influencing the final decision outcomes. The master equation can be considered as a pioneering and promising apparatus for modeling the dynamics of decision making in different contexts.

  14. FUZZY DECISION MAKING MODEL FOR BYZANTINE AGREEMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. MURUGAN

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Byzantine fault tolerance is of high importance in the distributed computing environment where malicious attacks and software errors are common. A Byzantine process sends arbitrary messages to every other process. An effective fuzzy decision making approach is proposed to eliminate the Byzantine behaviour of the services in the distributed environment. It is proposed to derive a fuzzy decision set in which the alternatives are ranked with grade of membership and based on that an appropriate decision can be arrived on the messages sent by the different services. A balanced decision is to be taken from the messages received across the services. To accomplish this, Hurwicz criterion is used to balance the optimistic and pessimistic views of the decision makers on different services. Grades of membership for the services are assessed using the non-functional Quality of Service parameters and have been estimated using fuzzy entropy measure which logically ranks the participant services. This approach for decision making is tested by varying the number of processes, varying the number of faulty services, varying the message values sent to different services and considering the variation in the views of the decision makers about the services. The experimental result shows that the decision reached is an enhanced one and in case of conflict, the proposed approach provides a concrete result, whereas decision taken using the Lamport’s algorithm is an arbitrary one.

  15. Consumer decision-making with regard to organic food products: Results from the CONDOR project

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thøgersen, John

    Based on a survey in eight European countries, a model of consumer decision making and behaviour with regard to organic food is presented as well as comparative results. It is found that the reasons given and the reasoning behind choosing organic products are quite similar across countries...

  16. Consumer decision-making with regard to organic food products: Results from the CONDOR project

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thøgersen, John

    Based on a survey in eight European countries, a model of consumer decision making and behaviour with regard to organic food is presented as well as comparative results. It is found that the reasons given and the reasoning behind choosing organic products are quite similar across countries...

  17. Modeling of Mixed Decision Making Process

    OpenAIRE

    yahia, Nesrine Ben; Bellamine, Narjès; Ghezala, Henda Ben

    2012-01-01

    Decision making whenever and wherever it is happened is key to organizations success. In order to make correct decision, individuals, teams and organizations need both knowledge management (to manage content) and collaboration (to manage group processes) to make that more effective and efficient. In this paper, we explain the knowledge management and collaboration convergence. Then, we propose a formal description of mixed and multimodal decision making (MDM) process where decision may be mad...

  18. Modeling of Mixed Decision Making Process

    OpenAIRE

    Yahia, Nesrine Ben; Bellamine, Narjès; Ghezala, Henda Ben

    2012-01-01

    Decision making whenever and wherever it is happened is key to organizations success. In order to make correct decision, individuals, teams and organizations need both knowledge management (to manage content) and collaboration (to manage group processes) to make that more effective and efficient. In this paper, we explain the knowledge management and collaboration convergence. Then, we propose a formal description of mixed and multimodal decision making (MDM) process where decision may be mad...

  19. Comparative Analysis of Vehicle Make and Model Recognition Techniques

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Faiza Ayub Syed

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Vehicle Make and Model Recognition (VMMR has emerged as a significant element of vision based systems because of its application in access control systems, traffic control and monitoring systems, security systems and surveillance systems, etc. So far a number of techniques have been developed for vehicle recognition. Each technique follows different methodology and classification approaches. The evaluation results highlight the recognition technique with highest accuracy level. In this paper we have pointed out the working of various vehicle make and model recognition techniques and compare these techniques on the basis of methodology, principles, classification approach, classifier and level of recognition After comparing these factors we concluded that Locally Normalized Harris Corner Strengths (LHNS performs best as compared to other techniques. LHNS uses Bayes and K-NN classification approaches for vehicle classification. It extracts information from frontal view of vehicles for vehicle make and model recognition.

  20. Hydraulic fracture model comparison study: Complete results

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Warpinski, N.R. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Abou-Sayed, I.S. [Mobil Exploration and Production Services (United States); Moschovidis, Z. [Amoco Production Co. (US); Parker, C. [CONOCO (US)

    1993-02-01

    Large quantities of natural gas exist in low permeability reservoirs throughout the US. Characteristics of these reservoirs, however, make production difficult and often economic and stimulation is required. Because of the diversity of application, hydraulic fracture design models must be able to account for widely varying rock properties, reservoir properties, in situ stresses, fracturing fluids, and proppant loads. As a result, fracture simulation has emerged as a highly complex endeavor that must be able to describe many different physical processes. The objective of this study was to develop a comparative study of hydraulic-fracture simulators in order to provide stimulation engineers with the necessary information to make rational decisions on the type of models most suited for their needs. This report compares the fracture modeling results of twelve different simulators, some of them run in different modes for eight separate design cases. Comparisons of length, width, height, net pressure, maximum width at the wellbore, average width at the wellbore, and average width in the fracture have been made, both for the final geometry and as a function of time. For the models in this study, differences in fracture length, height and width are often greater than a factor of two. In addition, several comparisons of the same model with different options show a large variability in model output depending upon the options chosen. Two comparisons were made of the same model run by different companies; in both cases the agreement was good. 41 refs., 54 figs., 83 tabs.

  1. Landslide risk models for decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonachea, Jaime; Remondo, Juan; de Terán, José Ramón Díaz; González-Díez, Alberto; Cendrero, Antonio

    2009-11-01

    This contribution presents a quantitative procedure for landslide risk analysis and zoning considering hazard, exposure (or value of elements at risk), and vulnerability. The method provides the means to obtain landslide risk models (expressing expected damage due to landslides on material elements and economic activities in monetary terms, according to different scenarios and periods) useful to identify areas where mitigation efforts will be most cost effective. It allows identifying priority areas for the implementation of actions to reduce vulnerability (elements) or hazard (processes). The procedure proposed can also be used as a preventive tool, through its application to strategic environmental impact analysis (SEIA) of land-use plans. The underlying hypothesis is that reliable predictions about hazard and risk can be made using models based on a detailed analysis of past landslide occurrences in connection with conditioning factors and data on past damage. The results show that the approach proposed and the hypothesis formulated are essentially correct, providing estimates of the order of magnitude of expected losses for a given time period. Uncertainties, strengths, and shortcomings of the procedure and results obtained are discussed and potential lines of research to improve the models are indicated. Finally, comments and suggestions are provided to generalize this type of analysis.

  2. Consumer's Online Shopping Influence Factors and Decision-Making Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Xiangbin; Dai, Shiliang

    Previous research on online consumer behavior has mostly been confined to the perceived risk which is used to explain those barriers for purchasing online. However, perceived benefit is another important factor which influences consumers’ decision when shopping online. As a result, an integrated consumer online shopping decision-making model is developed which contains three elements—Consumer, Product, and Web Site. This model proposed relative factors which influence the consumers’ intention during the online shopping progress, and divided them into two different dimensions—mentally level and material level. We tested those factors with surveys, from both online volunteers and offline paper surveys with more than 200 samples. With the help of SEM, the experimental results show that the proposed model and method can be used to analyze consumer’s online shopping decision-making process effectively.

  3. Decision Making, Models of Mind, and the New Cognitive Science.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evers, Colin W.

    1998-01-01

    Explores implications for understanding educational decision making from a cognitive science perspective. Examines three models of mind providing the methodological framework for decision-making studies. The "absent mind" embodies the behaviorist research tradition. The "functionalist mind" underwrites traditional cognitivism…

  4. Decision Making, Models of Mind, and the New Cognitive Science.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evers, Colin W.

    1998-01-01

    Explores implications for understanding educational decision making from a cognitive science perspective. Examines three models of mind providing the methodological framework for decision-making studies. The "absent mind" embodies the behaviorist research tradition. The "functionalist mind" underwrites traditional cognitivism…

  5. Quantum-Like Bayesian Networks for Modeling Decision Making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Catarina eMoreira

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In this work, we explore an alternative quantum structure to perform quantum probabilistic inferences to accommodate the paradoxical findings of the Sure Thing Principle. We propose a Quantum-Like Bayesian Network, which consists in replacing classical probabilities by quantum probability amplitudes. However, since this approach suffers from the problem of exponential growth of quantum parameters, we also propose a similarity heuristic that automatically fits quantum parameters through vector similarities. This makes the proposed model general and predictive in contrast to the current state of the art models, which cannot be generalized for more complex decision scenarios and that only provide an explanatory nature for the observed paradoxes. In the end, the model that we propose consists in a nonparametric method for estimating inference effects from a statistical point of view. It is a statistical model that is simpler than the previous quantum dynamic and quantum-like models proposed in the literature. We tested the proposed network with several empirical data from the literature, mainly from the Prisoner's Dilemma game and the Two Stage Gambling game. The results obtained show that the proposed quantum Bayesian Network is a general method that can accommodate violations of the laws of classical probability theory and make accurate predictions regarding human decision-making in these scenarios.

  6. Quantum-Like Bayesian Networks for Modeling Decision Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moreira, Catarina; Wichert, Andreas

    2016-01-01

    In this work, we explore an alternative quantum structure to perform quantum probabilistic inferences to accommodate the paradoxical findings of the Sure Thing Principle. We propose a Quantum-Like Bayesian Network, which consists in replacing classical probabilities by quantum probability amplitudes. However, since this approach suffers from the problem of exponential growth of quantum parameters, we also propose a similarity heuristic that automatically fits quantum parameters through vector similarities. This makes the proposed model general and predictive in contrast to the current state of the art models, which cannot be generalized for more complex decision scenarios and that only provide an explanatory nature for the observed paradoxes. In the end, the model that we propose consists in a nonparametric method for estimating inference effects from a statistical point of view. It is a statistical model that is simpler than the previous quantum dynamic and quantum-like models proposed in the literature. We tested the proposed network with several empirical data from the literature, mainly from the Prisoner's Dilemma game and the Two Stage Gambling game. The results obtained show that the proposed quantum Bayesian Network is a general method that can accommodate violations of the laws of classical probability theory and make accurate predictions regarding human decision-making in these scenarios.

  7. Comparison of multiple-criteria decision-making methods - results of simulation study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michał Adamczak

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Background: Today, both researchers and practitioners have many methods for supporting the decision-making process. Due to the conditions in which supply chains function, the most interesting are multi-criteria methods. The use of sophisticated methods for supporting decisions requires the parameterization and execution of calculations that are often complex. So is it efficient to use sophisticated methods? Methods: The authors of the publication compared two popular multi-criteria decision-making methods: the  Weighted Sum Model (WSM and the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP. A simulation study reflects these two decision-making methods. Input data for this study was a set of criteria weights and the value of each in terms of each criterion. Results: The iGrafx Process for Six Sigma simulation software recreated how both multiple-criteria decision-making methods (WSM and AHP function. The result of the simulation was a numerical value defining the preference of each of the alternatives according to the WSM and AHP methods. The alternative producing a result of higher numerical value  was considered preferred, according to the selected method. In the analysis of the results, the relationship between the values of the parameters and the difference in the results presented by both methods was investigated. Statistical methods, including hypothesis testing, were used for this purpose. Conclusions: The simulation study findings prove that the results obtained with the use of two multiple-criteria decision-making methods are very similar. Differences occurred more frequently in lower-value parameters from the "value of each alternative" group and higher-value parameters from the "weight of criteria" group.

  8. A Model of Dynamic Strategy-Making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Torben Juul; Hallin, Carina Antonia; Li, Xin

    The organizational capacity to cope with unexpected changes remains a fundamental challenge in strategy as global competition and technological innovation increase environmental uncertainty. Conventional strategy-making is often conceived as a sequential linear process where we see it as a non......-linear interaction between top-down and bottom-up mechanisms dealing with multiple actions taken throughout the organization over time. It is driven by intension but with a flexible balance between centralized (planned) and decentralized (spontaneous) activities. We adopt the principles of complementary Yin...

  9. A control theory model for human decision making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levison, W. H.

    1972-01-01

    The optimal control model for pilot-vehicle systems has been extended to handle certain types of human decision tasks. The model for decision making incorporates the observation noise, optimal estimation, and prediction concepts that form the basis of the model for control behavior. Experiments are described for the following task situations: (1) single decision tasks; (2) two decision tasks; and (3) simultaneous manual control and decision tasks. Using fixed values for model parameters, single-task and two-task decision performance scores to within an accuracy of 10 percent can be predicted. The experiment on simultaneous control and decision indicates the presence of task interference in this situation, but the results are not adequate to allow a conclusive test of the predictive capability of the model.

  10. Sectioning Clay Models Makes Anatomy & Development Tangible

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howell, Carina Endres; Howell, James Endres

    2010-01-01

    Clay models have proved to be useful teaching aids for many topics in biology that depend on three-dimensional reasoning. Students studying embryonic development struggle to mentally reconstruct the three-dimensional structure of embryos and larvae by observing prepared slides of cross-sectional slices. Students who build clay models of embryos…

  11. Making the Most of Modeling Tasks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wernet, Jamie L.; Lawrence, Kevin A.; Gilbertson, Nicholas J.

    2015-01-01

    While there is disagreement among mathematics educators about some aspects of its meaning, mathematical modeling generally involves taking a real-world scenario and translating it into the mathematical world (Niss, Blum, and Galbraith 2007). The complete modeling process involves describing situations posed in problems with mathematical concepts,…

  12. Making eco logic and models work

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kuiper, Jan Jurjen

    2016-01-01

    Dynamical ecosystem models are important tools that can help ecologists understand complex systems, and turn understanding into predictions of how these systems respond to external changes. This thesis revolves around PCLake, an integrated ecosystem model of shallow lakes that is used by both

  13. Making eco logic and models work

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kuiper, Jan Jurjen

    2016-01-01

    Dynamical ecosystem models are important tools that can help ecologists understand complex systems, and turn understanding into predictions of how these systems respond to external changes. This thesis revolves around PCLake, an integrated ecosystem model of shallow lakes that is used by both scient

  14. Making eco logic and models work

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kuiper, Jan Jurjen

    2016-01-01

    Dynamical ecosystem models are important tools that can help ecologists understand complex systems, and turn understanding into predictions of how these systems respond to external changes. This thesis revolves around PCLake, an integrated ecosystem model of shallow lakes that is used by both scient

  15. Drivers' decision-making when attempting to cross an intersection results from choice between affordances.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marti, Geoffrey; Morice, Antoine H P; Montagne, Gilles

    2014-01-01

    In theory, a safe approach to an intersection implies that drivers can simultaneously manage two scenarios: they either choose to cross or to give way to an oncoming vehicle. In this article we formalize the critical time for safe crossing (CT cross ) and the critical time for safe stopping (CT stop ) to represent crossing and stopping possibilities, respectively. We describe these critical times in terms of affordances and empirically test their respective contribution to the driver's decision-making process. Using a driving simulator, three groups of participants drove cars with identical acceleration capabilities and different braking capabilities. They were asked to try to cross an intersection where there was an oncoming vehicle, if they deemed the maneuver to be safe. If not, they could decide to stop or, as a last resort, make an emergency exit. The intersections were identical among groups. Results showed that although the crossing possibilities (CT cross ) were the same for all groups, there were between-group differences in crossing frequency. This suggests that stopping possibilities (CT stop ) play a role in the driver's decision-making process, in addition to the crossing possibilities. These results can be accounted for by a behavioral model of decision making, and provide support for the hypothesis of choice between affordances.

  16. Drivers’ decision-making when attempting to cross an intersection results from choice between affordances

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Geoffrey eMARTI

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available In theory, a safe approach to an intersection implies that the driver can simultaneously manage two scenarios: they either cross or they must give way to an oncoming vehicle. In this article we formalize the critical time for safe crossing (CTcross and the critical time for safe stopping (CTstop to represent crossing and stopping possibilities, respectively. We describe these critical times in terms of affordances and empirically test their respective contribution to the driver’s decision-making process. Using a driving simulator, three groups of participants drove cars with identical acceleration capabilities and different braking capabilities. They were asked to try to cross an intersection where there was an oncoming vehicle, if they deemed the maneuver to be safe. If not, they could decide to stop or, as a last resort, make an emergency exit. The intersections were identical among groups.Results showed that although the crossing possibilities (CTcross were the same for all groups, there were between-group differences in crossing frequency. This suggests that stopping possibilities (CTstop play a role in the driver’s decision-making process, in addition to the crossing possibilities. These results can be accounted for by a behavioral model of decision making, and provide support for the hypothesis of choice between affordances.

  17. Urban drainage models - making uncertainty analysis simple

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vezzaro, Luca; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen; Deletic, Ana;

    2012-01-01

    There is increasing awareness about uncertainties in modelling of urban drainage systems and, as such, many new methods for uncertainty analyses have been developed. Despite this, all available methods have limitations which restrict their widespread application among practitioners. Here, a modif...... probability distributions (often used for sensitivity analyses) and prediction intervals. To demonstrate the new method, it is applied to a conceptual rainfall-runoff model using a dataset collected from Melbourne, Australia....

  18. A neural model of decision making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Torben

    2008-01-01

    and inhibitory processes and EEG is still useful for research as a broader and direct measure of brain activity. On this background a new interdisciplinary field linking behavioural economics and neuroscience into a neuroeconomic discipline emerges. Recent reviews of neuroeconomics represent a platform...... for further development of neuroeconomics [McLean 1992 and Luria 1973].    An overview of neuroeconomics from an economic perspective reviewing 13 studies [Kenning and Plassman, 2005]. It is concluded that the first studies are explorative research focusing concepts crucial to modern economic theory...... such as fairness, trust, altruism, memory, learning and knowledge. The goal of neuroeconomics is stated as to provide a descriptive decision-making theory, which is not restricted to economic theory and more realistic than that of economic man.    Reviewing how neuroscience can inform economics [Camerer et al...

  19. A queueing model of pilot decision making in a multi-task flight management situation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walden, R. S.; Rouse, W. B.

    1977-01-01

    Allocation of decision making responsibility between pilot and computer is considered and a flight management task, designed for the study of pilot-computer interaction, is discussed. A queueing theory model of pilot decision making in this multi-task, control and monitoring situation is presented. An experimental investigation of pilot decision making and the resulting model parameters are discussed.

  20. Urban drainage models - making uncertainty analysis simple

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vezzaro, Luca; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen; Deletic, Ana

    2012-01-01

    There is increasing awareness about uncertainties in modelling of urban drainage systems and, as such, many new methods for uncertainty analyses have been developed. Despite this, all available methods have limitations which restrict their widespread application among practitioners. Here, a modif...

  1. Does learning to reflect make better modelers?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Slinger, J.H.; Kwakkel, J.H.; Van der Niet, M.

    2008-01-01

    In this paper we address the role of reflective skills in the development and training of new System Dynamics modelers at the tertiary education level. Over the last two years students at the Delft University of Technology have written a reflective essay on their experiences with the conceptualizati

  2. The Controlling Model as Management Support in Decision- Making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Berislav Bolfek

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available business system to operate successfully and make profit, which represents the success criterion for each business system on the market. For managing the business result, the management of business systems needs different types of information on which numerous managerial decisions are based. That is why it is necessary to develop and set a Business System Controlling Model which would have the capability to transform available data into the information necessary for managerial decision-making. The above-mentioned model is prepared in such a way that the whole process of the transformation of the data into required information is carried out in two interconnected steps which have to be made in every single case and situation. However, there are a certain number of different activities within each step which do not have to be performed in every case. The forecast presented in the form of the Profit Forecast Procedure and the Liquidity Forecast Procedure represents the essence of the Business System Controlling Model. The Business System Controlling Model developed and set out in this paper should enable the business system management to evaluate future business activities, in addition to monitoring the past and present business activities. It is precisely the evaluation of the future business activities that, in today’s conditions of greater market globalization and internationalization, should help the business system management to control the business result in a better and easier way. In this way, the Business System Controlling Model represents a new tool in the sense of management support in making various business decisions.

  3. DECISION MAKING MODELING OF CONCRETE REQUIREMENTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suhartono Irawan

    2001-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the results of an experimental evaluation between predicted and practice concrete strength. The scope of the evaluation is the optimisation of the cement content for different concrete grades as a result of bringing the target mean value of tests cubes closer to the required characteristic strength value by reducing the standard deviation. Abstract in Bahasa Indonesia : concrete+mix+design%2C+acceptance+control%2C+optimisation%2C+cement+content.

  4. Dynamic Decision Making for Graphical Models Applied to Oil Exploration

    CERN Document Server

    Martinelli, Gabriele; Hauge, Ragnar

    2012-01-01

    We present a framework for sequential decision making in problems described by graphical models. The setting is given by dependent discrete random variables with associated costs or revenues. In our examples, the dependent variables are the potential outcomes (oil, gas or dry) when drilling a petroleum well. The goal is to develop an optimal selection strategy that incorporates a chosen utility function within an approximated dynamic programming scheme. We propose and compare different approximations, from simple heuristics to more complex iterative schemes, and we discuss their computational properties. We apply our strategies to oil exploration over multiple prospects modeled by a directed acyclic graph, and to a reservoir drilling decision problem modeled by a Markov random field. The results show that the suggested strategies clearly improve the simpler intuitive constructions, and this is useful when selecting exploration policies.

  5. An Evaluation of the Decision-Making Capacity Assessment Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brémault-Phillips, Suzette C.; Parmar, Jasneet; Friesen, Steven; Rogers, Laura G.; Pike, Ashley; Sluggett, Bryan

    2016-01-01

    Background The Decision-Making Capacity Assessment (DMCA) Model includes a best-practice process and tools to assess DMCA, and implementation strategies at the organizational and assessor levels to support provision of DMCAs across the care continuum. A Developmental Evaluation of the DMCA Model was conducted. Methods A mixed methods approach was used. Survey (N = 126) and focus group (N = 49) data were collected from practitioners utilizing the Model. Results Strengths of the Model include its best-practice and implementation approach, applicability to independent practitioners and inter-professional teams, focus on training/mentoring to enhance knowledge/skills, and provision of tools/processes. Post-training, participants agreed that they followed the Model’s guiding principles (90%), used problem-solving (92%), understood discipline-specific roles (87%), were confident in their knowledge of DMCAs (75%) and pertinent legislation (72%), accessed consultative services (88%), and received management support (64%). Model implementation is impeded when role clarity, physician engagement, inter-professional buy-in, accountability, dedicated resources, information sharing systems, and remuneration are lacking. Dedicated resources, job descriptions inclusive of DMCAs, ongoing education/mentoring supports, access to consultative services, and appropriate remuneration would support implementation. Conclusions The DMCA Model offers practitioners, inter-professional teams, and organizations a best-practice and implementation approach to DMCAs. Addressing barriers and further contextualizing the Model would be warranted. PMID:27729947

  6. A decision-making model for engineering designers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ahmed, S.; Hansen, Claus Thorp

    2002-01-01

    This paper describes research that combines the generic decision-making model of Hansen, together with design strategies employed by experienced engineering designers. The relationship between the six decision-making sub-activities and the eight design strategies are examined. By combining these ...... these two understandings of the design process, a model has been developed, which describes the different types of decision made during the design process together with strategies that aid the designer in making decisions.......This paper describes research that combines the generic decision-making model of Hansen, together with design strategies employed by experienced engineering designers. The relationship between the six decision-making sub-activities and the eight design strategies are examined. By combining...

  7. A decision-making model for engineering designers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ahmed, S.; Hansen, Claus Thorp

    2002-01-01

    This paper describes research that combines the generic decision-making model of Hansen, together with design strategies employed by experienced engineering designers. The relationship between the six decision-making sub-activities and the eight design strategies are examined. By combining...

  8. Optimization for decision making linear and quadratic models

    CERN Document Server

    Murty, Katta G

    2010-01-01

    While maintaining the rigorous linear programming instruction required, Murty's new book is unique in its focus on developing modeling skills to support valid decision-making for complex real world problems, and includes solutions to brand new algorithms.

  9. Reduced model-based decision-making in schizophrenia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Culbreth, Adam J; Westbrook, Andrew; Daw, Nathaniel D; Botvinick, Matthew; Barch, Deanna M

    2016-08-01

    Individuals with schizophrenia have a diminished ability to use reward history to adaptively guide behavior. However, tasks traditionally used to assess such deficits often rely on multiple cognitive and neural processes, leaving etiology unresolved. In the current study, we adopted recent computational formalisms of reinforcement learning to distinguish between model-based and model-free decision-making in hopes of specifying mechanisms associated with reinforcement-learning dysfunction in schizophrenia. Under this framework, decision-making is model-free to the extent that it relies solely on prior reward history, and model-based if it relies on prospective information such as motivational state, future consequences, and the likelihood of obtaining various outcomes. Model-based and model-free decision-making was assessed in 33 schizophrenia patients and 30 controls using a 2-stage 2-alternative forced choice task previously demonstrated to discern individual differences in reliance on the 2 forms of reinforcement-learning. We show that, compared with controls, schizophrenia patients demonstrate decreased reliance on model-based decision-making. Further, parameter estimates of model-based behavior correlate positively with IQ and working memory measures, suggesting that model-based deficits seen in schizophrenia may be partially explained by higher-order cognitive deficits. These findings demonstrate specific reinforcement-learning and decision-making deficits and thereby provide valuable insights for understanding disordered behavior in schizophrenia. (PsycINFO Database Record

  10. The Role of Mental Models in Dynamic Decision-Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-03-01

    REINE EN DROIT DU CANADA (2009) Défense Nationale Canada Humansystems® Incorporated Mental Models and DDM Page i Abstract The complex and...help to guide human decision-making. He proposes an alternative descriptive model, the Critique , Explore, Compare, Adapt (CECA) Loop. This model is...section). Humansystems® Incorporated Mental Models and DDM Page 45 The Critique phase involves questioning the conceptual model (“how you want it to

  11. A control-theory model for human decision-making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levison, W. H.; Tanner, R. B.

    1971-01-01

    A model for human decision making is an adaptation of an optimal control model for pilot/vehicle systems. The models for decision and control both contain concepts of time delay, observation noise, optimal prediction, and optimal estimation. The decision making model was intended for situations in which the human bases his decision on his estimate of the state of a linear plant. Experiments are described for the following task situations: (a) single decision tasks, (b) two-decision tasks, and (c) simultaneous manual control and decision making. Using fixed values for model parameters, single-task and two-task decision performance can be predicted to within an accuracy of 10 percent. Agreement is less good for the simultaneous decision and control situation.

  12. Synthesizing Results from an Interest and a Personality Inventory to Improve Career Decision Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Mark J.

    1992-01-01

    Illustrates how career counselors can integrate results of Myers-Briggs Type Indicator (MBTI) and Strong-Campbell Interest Inventory (SCII) to enhance client's decision-making ability. Includes detailed description of MBTI and brief explanation of SCII and discussion of how both instruments can be used jointly to promote career decision making.…

  13. Imitation Combined with a Characteristic Stimulus Duration Results in Robust Collective Decision-making in Sheep

    CERN Document Server

    Toulet, Sylvain; Bon, Richard; Peruani, Fernando

    2015-01-01

    For group-living animals, reaching consensus to stay cohesive is crucial for their fitness, particularly when collective motion starts and stops. Understanding the decision-making at individual and collective levels upon sudden disturbances is central in the study of collective animal behavior, and concerns the broader question of how information is distributed and evaluated in groups. Despite the relevance of the problem, well-controlled experimental studies that quantify the collective response of groups facing disruptive events are lacking. Here we study the behavior of groups of uninformed individuals subject to the departure and stop of a trained conspecific within small-sized groups. We find that the groups reach an effective consensus: either all uninformed individuals follow the trained one (and collective motion occurs) or none does it. Combining experiments and a simple mathematical model we show that the observed phenomena results from the interplay between simple mimetic rules and the characterist...

  14. Limitations of multimedia models for use in environmental decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Travis, C C; Obenshain, K R; Regens, J L; Whipple, C G

    2001-09-01

    The United States currently is engaged in a complex, multi-billion dollar effort to cleanup a legacy of both privately- and federally-owned hazardous waste sites. Decisions regarding the best approach for remediation of these sites often are based on the analysis of potential risks to human health and the environment. A cornerstone of such analysis is the frequent use of computerized multimedia environmental transport models, to evaluate the large quantities of information necessary to understand the present and future implications of contamination at a site. One barrier to wide-spread use of this analytical procedure is the view that results obtained using computer models are highly dependent on user input, and therefore, subject to manipulation. It is widely recognized that for decisions to be both credible and implementable, the public must have confidence in both the scientific basis for judgments involved and the decision processes employed (NRC, 1983). Our purpose in this article is to overview the difficulties associated with application of multimedia models to real world problems and the contribution these models can make to technically sound estimates of exposure and risk.

  15. A spiral model of musical decision-making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel eBangert

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes a model of how musicians make decisions about performing notated music. The model builds on psychological theories of decision-making and was developed from empirical studies of Western art music performance that aimed to identify intuitive and deliberate processes of decision-making, a distinction consistent with dual-process theories of cognition. The model proposes that the proportion of intuitive (Type 1 and deliberate (Type 2 decision-making processes changes with increasing expertise and conceptualises this change as movement along a continually narrowing upward spiral where the primary axis signifies principal decision-making type and the vertical axis marks level of expertise. The model is intended to have implications for the development of expertise as described in two main phases. The first is movement from a primarily intuitive approach in the early stages of learning towards greater deliberation as analytical techniques are applied during practice. The second phase occurs as deliberate decisions gradually become automatic (procedural, increasing the role of intuitive processes. As a performer examines more issues or reconsiders decisions, the spiral motion towards the deliberate side and back to the intuitive is repeated indefinitely. With increasing expertise, the spiral tightens to signify greater control over decision type selection. The model draws on existing theories, particularly Evans’ (2011 Intervention Model of dual-process theories, Cognitive Continuum Theory (Hammond et al., 1987; Hammond, 2007, and Baylor’s (2001 U-shaped model for the development of intuition by level of expertise. By theorising how musical decision-making operates over time and with increasing expertise, this model could be used as a framework for future research in music performance studies and performance science more generally.

  16. Decision making in the transtheoretical model of behavior change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prochaska, James O

    2008-01-01

    Decision making is an integral part of the transtheoretical model of behavior change. Stage of change represents a temporal dimension for behavior change and has been the key dimension for integrating principles and processes of change from across leading theories of psychotherapy and behavior change. The decision-making variables representing the pros and cons of changing have been found to have systematic relationships across the stages of change for 50 health-related behaviors. Implications of these patterns of relationships are discussed in the context of helping patients make more effective decisions to decrease health risk behaviors and increase health-enhancing behaviors.

  17. Qualitative modeling of the decision-making process using electrooculography.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marandi, Ramtin Zargari; Sabzpoushan, S H

    2015-12-01

    A novel method based on electrooculography (EOG) has been introduced in this work to study the decision-making process. An experiment was designed and implemented wherein subjects were asked to choose between two items from the same category that were presented within a limited time. The EOG and voice signals of the subjects were recorded during the experiment. A calibration task was performed to map the EOG signals to their corresponding gaze positions on the screen by using an artificial neural network. To analyze the data, 16 parameters were extracted from the response time and EOG signals of the subjects. Evaluation and comparison of the parameters, together with subjects' choices, revealed functional information. On the basis of this information, subjects switched their eye gazes between items about three times on average. We also found, according to statistical hypothesis testing-that is, a t test, t(10) = 71.62, SE = 1.25, p < .0001-that the correspondence rate of a subjects' gaze at the moment of selection with the selected item was significant. Ultimately, on the basis of these results, we propose a qualitative choice model for the decision-making task.

  18. Make

    CERN Document Server

    Frauenfelder, Mark

    2012-01-01

    The first magazine devoted entirely to do-it-yourself technology projects presents its 29th quarterly edition for people who like to tweak, disassemble, recreate, and invent cool new uses for technology. MAKE Volume 29 takes bio-hacking to a new level. Get introduced to DIY tracking devices before they hit the consumer electronics marketplace. Learn how to build an EKG machine to study your heartbeat, and put together a DIY bio lab to study athletic motion using consumer grade hardware.

  19. Graph-based Models for Data and Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-02-16

    hulls. ACM 11un.saction.s on Mathematical Softwan, 22( 4):469-483, 1996. [2] M. Belkin and P. Niyogi. Laplacian eigenrnaps for dimensionality...cogntive models and user interfaces, and have explored relationships between mathematical and computational models of a detection task. Additionally... software have been developed for implementing these analyses and making them widely available. 15. SUBJECT TERMS Workload capacity modeling, human

  20. Imitation Combined with a Characteristic Stimulus Duration Results in Robust Collective Decision-Making.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sylvain Toulet

    Full Text Available For group-living animals, reaching consensus to stay cohesive is crucial for their fitness, particularly when collective motion starts and stops. Understanding the decision-making at individual and collective levels upon sudden disturbances is central in the study of collective animal behavior, and concerns the broader question of how information is distributed and evaluated in groups. Despite the relevance of the problem, well-controlled experimental studies that quantify the collective response of groups facing disruptive events are lacking. Here we study the behavior of small-sized groups of uninformed individuals subject to the departure and stop of a trained conspecific. We find that the groups reach an effective consensus: either all uninformed individuals follow the trained one (and collective motion occurs or none does. Combining experiments and a simple mathematical model we show that the observed phenomena results from the interplay between simple mimetic rules and the characteristic duration of the stimulus, here, the time during which the trained individual is moving away. The proposed mechanism strongly depends on group size, as observed in the experiments, and even if group splitting can occur, the most likely outcome is always a coherent collective group response (consensus. The prevalence of a consensus is expected even if the groups of naives face conflicting information, e.g. if groups contain two subgroups of trained individuals, one trained to stay and one trained to leave. Our results indicate that collective decision-making and consensus in (small animal groups are likely to be self-organized phenomena that do not involve concertation or even communication among the group members.

  1. Imitation Combined with a Characteristic Stimulus Duration Results in Robust Collective Decision-Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toulet, Sylvain; Gautrais, Jacques; Bon, Richard; Peruani, Fernando

    2015-01-01

    For group-living animals, reaching consensus to stay cohesive is crucial for their fitness, particularly when collective motion starts and stops. Understanding the decision-making at individual and collective levels upon sudden disturbances is central in the study of collective animal behavior, and concerns the broader question of how information is distributed and evaluated in groups. Despite the relevance of the problem, well-controlled experimental studies that quantify the collective response of groups facing disruptive events are lacking. Here we study the behavior of small-sized groups of uninformed individuals subject to the departure and stop of a trained conspecific. We find that the groups reach an effective consensus: either all uninformed individuals follow the trained one (and collective motion occurs) or none does. Combining experiments and a simple mathematical model we show that the observed phenomena results from the interplay between simple mimetic rules and the characteristic duration of the stimulus, here, the time during which the trained individual is moving away. The proposed mechanism strongly depends on group size, as observed in the experiments, and even if group splitting can occur, the most likely outcome is always a coherent collective group response (consensus). The prevalence of a consensus is expected even if the groups of naives face conflicting information, e.g. if groups contain two subgroups of trained individuals, one trained to stay and one trained to leave. Our results indicate that collective decision-making and consensus in (small) animal groups are likely to be self-organized phenomena that do not involve concertation or even communication among the group members.

  2. The study of prescriptive and descriptive models of decision making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ashok A Divekar

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available The field of decision making can be loosely divided into two parts: the study of prescriptive models and the study of descriptive models. Prescriptive decision scientists are concerned with prescribing methods for making optimal decisions. Descriptive decision researchers are concerned with the bounded way in which the decisions are actually made. The statistics courses treat risk from a prescriptive, by suggesting rational methods. This paper brings out the work done by many researchers by examining the psychological factors that explain how managers deviate from rationality in responding to uncertainty.

  3. Leadership of risk decision making in a complex, technology organization: The deliberative decision making model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flaming, Susan C.

    2007-12-01

    The continuing saga of satellite technology development is as much a story of successful risk management as of innovative engineering. How do program leaders on complex, technology projects manage high stakes risks that threaten business success and satellite performance? This grounded theory study of risk decision making portrays decision leadership practices at one communication satellite company. Integrated product team (IPT) leaders of multi-million dollar programs were interviewed and observed to develop an extensive description of the leadership skills required to navigate organizational influences and drive challenging risk decisions to closure. Based on the study's findings the researcher proposes a new decision making model, Deliberative Decision Making, to describe the program leaders' cognitive and organizational leadership practices. This Deliberative Model extends the insights of prominent decision making models including the rational (or classical) and the naturalistic and qualifies claims made by bounded rationality theory. The Deliberative Model describes how leaders proactively engage resources to play a variety of decision leadership roles. The Model incorporates six distinct types of leadership decision activities, undertaken in varying sequence based on the challenges posed by specific risks. Novel features of the Deliberative Decision Model include: an inventory of leadership methods for managing task challenges, potential stakeholder bias and debates; four types of leadership meta-decisions that guide decision processes, and aligned organizational culture. Both supporting and constraining organizational influences were observed as leaders managed major risks, requiring active leadership on the most difficult decisions. Although the company's engineering culture emphasized the importance of data-based decisions, the uncertainties intrinsic to satellite risks required expert engineering judgment to be exercised throughout. An investigation into

  4. An analysis of symbolic linguistic computing models in decision making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodríguez, Rosa M.; Martínez, Luis

    2013-01-01

    It is common that experts involved in complex real-world decision problems use natural language for expressing their knowledge in uncertain frameworks. The language is inherent vague, hence probabilistic decision models are not very suitable in such cases. Therefore, other tools such as fuzzy logic and fuzzy linguistic approaches have been successfully used to model and manage such vagueness. The use of linguistic information implies to operate with such a type of information, i.e. processes of computing with words (CWW). Different schemes have been proposed to deal with those processes, and diverse symbolic linguistic computing models have been introduced to accomplish the linguistic computations. In this paper, we overview the relationship between decision making and CWW, and focus on symbolic linguistic computing models that have been widely used in linguistic decision making to analyse if all of them can be considered inside of the CWW paradigm.

  5. Modelling Human Emotions for Tactical Decision-Making Games

    Science.gov (United States)

    Visschedijk, Gillian C.; Lazonder, Ard W.; van der Hulst, Anja; Vink, Nathalie; Leemkuil, Henny

    2013-01-01

    The training of tactical decision making increasingly occurs through serious computer games. A challenging aspect of designing such games is the modelling of human emotions. Two studies were performed to investigate the relation between fidelity and human emotion recognition in virtual human characters. Study 1 compared five versions of a virtual…

  6. A Decision-Making Model Applied to Career Counseling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olson, Christine; And Others

    1990-01-01

    A four-component model for career decision-making counseling relates each component to assessment questions and appropriate intervention strategies. The components are (1) conceptualization (definition of the problem); (2) enlargement of response repertoire (generation of alternatives); (3) identification of discriminative stimuli (consequences of…

  7. A Behavioral Decision Making Modeling Approach Towards Hedging Services

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pennings, J.M.E.; Candel, M.J.J.M.; Egelkraut, T.M.

    2003-01-01

    This paper takes a behavioral approach toward the market for hedging services. A behavioral decision-making model is developed that provides insight into how and why owner-managers decide the way they do regarding hedging services. Insight into those choice processes reveals information needed by fi

  8. Modelling human emotions for tactical decision-making games

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Visschedijk, G.C.; Lazonder, A.W.; Hulst, A.H. van der; Vink, N.; Leemkuil, H.

    2013-01-01

    The training of tactical decision making increasingly occurs through serious computer games. A challenging aspect of designing such games is the modelling of human emotions. Two studieswere performed to investigate the relation between fidelity and human emotion recognition in virtual human characte

  9. Shared decision making: a model for clinical practice

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Elwyn, G.; Frosch, D.; Thomson, R.; Joseph-Williams, N.; Lloyd, A.; Kinnersley, P.; Cording, E.; Tomson, D.; Dodd, C.; Rollnick, S.; Edwards, A.; Barry, M.

    2012-01-01

    The principles of shared decision making are well documented but there is a lack of guidance about how to accomplish the approach in routine clinical practice. Our aim here is to translate existing conceptual descriptions into a three-step model that is practical, easy to remember, and can act as a

  10. Modelling human emotions for tactical decision-making games

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Visschedijk, G.C.; Lazonder, A.W.; Hulst, A.H. van der; Vink, N.; Leemkuil, H.

    2013-01-01

    The training of tactical decision making increasingly occurs through serious computer games. A challenging aspect of designing such games is the modelling of human emotions. Two studieswere performed to investigate the relation between fidelity and human emotion recognition in virtual human characte

  11. Shared decision making: a model for clinical practice

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Elwyn, G.; Frosch, D.; Thomson, R.; Joseph-Williams, N.; Lloyd, A.; Kinnersley, P.; Cording, E.; Tomson, D.; Dodd, C.; Rollnick, S.; Edwards, A.; Barry, M.

    2012-01-01

    The principles of shared decision making are well documented but there is a lack of guidance about how to accomplish the approach in routine clinical practice. Our aim here is to translate existing conceptual descriptions into a three-step model that is practical, easy to remember, and can act as a

  12. Making Connections to the "Real World": A Model Building Lesson

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horibe, Shusaku; Underwood, Bret

    2009-01-01

    Classroom activities that include the process of model building, in which students build simplified physical representations of a system, have the potential to help students make meaningful connections between physics and the real world. We describe a lesson designed with this intent for an introductory college classroom that engages students in…

  13. A decision-making process model of young online shoppers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Chin-Feng; Wang, Hui-Fang

    2008-12-01

    Based on the concepts of brand equity, means-end chain, and Web site trust, this study proposes a novel model called the consumption decision-making process of adolescents (CDMPA) to understand adolescents' Internet consumption habits and behavioral intention toward particular sporting goods. The findings of the CDMPA model can help marketers understand adolescents' consumption preferences and habits for developing effective Internet marketing strategies.

  14. Generation companies decision-making modeling by linear control theory

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gutierrez-Alcaraz, G. [Programa de Graduados e Investigacion en Ingenieria Electrica. Departamento de Ingenieria Electrica y Electronica, Instituto Tecnologico de Morelia. Av. Tecnologico 1500, Col. Lomas de Santiaguito 58120. Morelia, Mich. (Mexico); Sheble, Gerald B. [INESC Porto, Faculdade de Engenharia, Universidade do Porto, Campus da FEUP, Rua Dr. Roberto Frias, 4200-465 Porto (Portugal)

    2010-07-15

    This paper proposes four decision-making procedures to be employed by electric generating companies as part of their bidding strategies when competing in an oligopolistic market: naive, forward, adaptive, and moving average expectations. Decision-making is formulated in a dynamic framework by using linear control theory. The results reveal that interactions among all GENCOs affect market dynamics. Several numerical examples are reported, and conclusions are presented. (author)

  15. The DO ART Model: An Ethical Decision-Making Model Applicable to Art Therapy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hauck, Jessica; Ling, Thomson

    2016-01-01

    Although art therapists have discussed the importance of taking a positive stance in terms of ethical decision making (Hinz, 2011), an ethical decision-making model applicable for the field of art therapy has yet to emerge. As the field of art therapy continues to grow, an accessible, theoretically grounded, and logical decision-making model is…

  16. The DO ART Model: An Ethical Decision-Making Model Applicable to Art Therapy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hauck, Jessica; Ling, Thomson

    2016-01-01

    Although art therapists have discussed the importance of taking a positive stance in terms of ethical decision making (Hinz, 2011), an ethical decision-making model applicable for the field of art therapy has yet to emerge. As the field of art therapy continues to grow, an accessible, theoretically grounded, and logical decision-making model is…

  17. Behavioural modelling of irrigation decision making under water scarcity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foster, T.; Brozovic, N.; Butler, A. P.

    2013-12-01

    Providing effective policy solutions to aquifer depletion caused by abstraction for irrigation is a key challenge for socio-hydrology. However, most crop production functions used in hydrological models do not capture the intraseasonal nature of irrigation planning, or the importance of well yield in land and water use decisions. Here we develop a method for determining stochastic intraseasonal water use that is based on observed farmer behaviour but is also theoretically consistent with dynamically optimal decision making. We use the model to (i) analyse the joint land and water use decision by farmers; (ii) to assess changes in behaviour and production risk in response to water scarcity; and (iii) to understand the limits of applicability of current methods in policy design. We develop a biophysical model of water-limited crop yield building on the AquaCrop model. The model is calibrated and applied to case studies of irrigated corn production in Nebraska and Texas. We run the model iteratively, using long-term climate records, to define two formulations of the crop-water production function: (i) the aggregate relationship between total seasonal irrigation and yield (typical of current approaches); and (ii) the stochastic response of yield and total seasonal irrigation to the choice of an intraseasonal soil moisture target and irrigated area. Irrigated area (the extensive margin decision) and per-area irrigation intensity (the intensive margin decision) are then calculated for different seasonal water restrictions (corresponding to regulatory policies) and well yield constraints on intraseasonal abstraction rates (corresponding to aquifer system limits). Profit- and utility-maximising decisions are determined assuming risk neutrality and varying degrees of risk aversion, respectively. Our results demonstrate that the formulation of the production function has a significant impact on the response to water scarcity. For low well yields, which are the major concern

  18. Modeling the unknown: how to make a perfect whale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rossi, Michael

    2008-06-01

    Making a life-sized model of a blue whale is difficult. Making one to the exacting standards of 'scientific accuracy' is backbreaking. When, in the early 1960s, the American Museum of Natural History in New York undertook to fabricate a replica of the largest animal that ever lived, little was known about how blue whales really looked and behaved in the wild. Exhibitors like Richard Van Gelder guided themselves by old photographs, illustrations, tables of measurements and the experience of other institutions--as well as their own educated guesswork, and ideas of beauty, value and pride.

  19. Opinion:the use of natural hazard modeling for decision making under uncertainty

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    David E Calkin; Mike Mentis

    2015-01-01

    Decision making to mitigate the effects of natural hazards is a complex undertaking fraught with uncertainty. Models to describe risks associated with natural hazards have proliferated in recent years. Concurrently, there is a growing body of work focused on developing best practices for natural hazard modeling and to create structured evaluation criteria for complex environmental models. However, to our knowledge there has been less focus on the conditions where decision makers can confidently rely on results from these models. In this review we propose a preliminary set of conditions necessary for the appropriate application of modeled results to natural hazard decision making and provide relevant examples within US wildfire management programs.

  20. An Integrated Decision Making Model for Evaluation of Concept Design

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Green

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available The Conceptual design phase generates various design concepts and these are then evaluated in order to identify the 'Best’ concept. Identifying the Best concept is important because much of the product life cycle cost is decided in this phase. Various evaluation techniques are performed so as to aid decision-making. Different criteria are weighted against concepts for the comparison. This paper describes the research being carried out at the University of Glasgow on design evaluation. It presents the Application of fuzzy logic for design evaluation and proposes an integrated decision-making model for design evaluation. This is a part of research project that aims at developing a computer tool for evaluation process to aid decision-making.

  1. Cognitive modeling and multi criteria decision making in macroeconomic analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leonova Nina

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Decision making in macroeconomics belongs to the class of ill-structured tasks with strong external factors interdependence, a limited number of management tools and experts groups' subjectivity. This paper suggests a technique of macroeconomic analysis which includes methods of cognitive modeling for formalizing a problem situation and scenario generation as a basis of the typical multicriteria decision making task. In turn, for solving this task is suggested a method based on measuring the distance to the 'ideal' solution with determining importance of criteria by finding objective, common component of all values measured by experts groups. For extracting this 'commonality' means of factor analysis are used. Such an approach allows separating of the objective part in experts' value from a subjective one, while the technique at whole provides formalization of macroeconomic problems and substantiation of decision-making in macroeconomics.

  2. Unicriterion Model: A Qualitative Decision Making Method That Promotes Ethics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fernando Guilherme Silvano Lobo Pimentel

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Management decision making methods frequently adopt quantitativemodels of several criteria that bypass the question of whysome criteria are considered more important than others, whichmakes more difficult the task of delivering a transparent viewof preference structure priorities that might promote ethics andlearning and serve as a basis for future decisions. To tackle thisparticular shortcoming of usual methods, an alternative qualitativemethodology of aggregating preferences based on the rankingof criteria is proposed. Such an approach delivers a simpleand transparent model for the solution of each preference conflictfaced during the management decision making process. Themethod proceeds by breaking the decision problem into ‘two criteria– two alternatives’ scenarios, and translating the problem ofchoice between alternatives to a problem of choice between criteriawhenever appropriate. The unicriterion model method is illustratedby its application in a car purchase and a house purchasedecision problem.

  3. A Costing Analysis for Decision Making Grid Model in Failure-Based Maintenance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Burhanuddin M. A.

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. In current economic downturn, industries have to set good control on production cost, to maintain their profit margin. Maintenance department as an imperative unit in industries should attain all maintenance data, process information instantaneously, and subsequently transform it into a useful decision. Then act on the alternative to reduce production cost. Decision Making Grid model is used to identify strategies for maintenance decision. However, the model has limitation as it consider two factors only, that is, downtime and frequency of failures. We consider third factor, cost, in this study for failure-based maintenance. The objective of this paper is to introduce the formulae to estimate maintenance cost. Methods. Fish bone analysis conducted with Ishikawa model and Decision Making Grid methods are used in this study to reveal some underlying risk factors that delay failure-based maintenance. The goal of the study is to estimate the risk factor that is, repair cost to fit in the Decision Making Grid model. Decision Making grid model consider two variables, frequency of failure and downtime in the analysis. This paper introduces third variable, repair cost for Decision Making Grid model. This approaches give better result to categorize the machines, reduce cost, and boost the earning for the manufacturing plant. Results. We collected data from one of the food processing factories in Malaysia. From our empirical result, Machine C, Machine D, Machine F, and Machine I must be in the Decision Making Grid model even though their frequency of failures and downtime are less than Machine B and Machine N, based on the costing analysis. The case study and experimental results show that the cost analysis in Decision Making Grid model gives more promising strategies in failure-based maintenance. Conclusions. The improvement of Decision Making Grid model for decision analysis with costing analysis is our contribution in this paper for

  4. Results from a new Cocks-Ashby style porosity model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barton, Nathan

    2017-01-01

    A new porosity evolution model is described, along with preliminary results. The formulation makes use of a Cocks-Ashby style treatment of porosity kinetics that includes rate dependent flow in the mechanics of porosity growth. The porosity model is implemented in a framework that allows for a variety of strength models to be used for the matrix material, including ones with significant changes in rate sensitivity as a function of strain rate. Results of the effect of changing strain rate sensitivity on porosity evolution are shown. The overall constitutive model update involves the coupled solution of a system of nonlinear equations.

  5. Simple model for multiple-choice collective decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Ching Hua; Lucas, Andrew

    2014-11-01

    We describe a simple model of heterogeneous, interacting agents making decisions between n≥2 discrete choices. For a special class of interactions, our model is the mean field description of random field Potts-like models and is effectively solved by finding the extrema of the average energy E per agent. In these cases, by studying the propagation of decision changes via avalanches, we argue that macroscopic dynamics is well captured by a gradient flow along E. We focus on the permutation symmetric case, where all n choices are (on average) the same, and spontaneous symmetry breaking (SSB) arises purely from cooperative social interactions. As examples, we show that bimodal heterogeneity naturally provides a mechanism for the spontaneous formation of hierarchies between decisions and that SSB is a preferred instability to discontinuous phase transitions between two symmetric points. Beyond the mean field limit, exponentially many stable equilibria emerge when we place this model on a graph of finite mean degree. We conclude with speculation on decision making with persistent collective oscillations. Throughout the paper, we emphasize analogies between methods of solution to our model and common intuition from diverse areas of physics, including statistical physics and electromagnetism.

  6. A quantum dynamic belief model to explain the interference effects of categorization on decision making

    OpenAIRE

    He, Zichang; Jiang, Wen

    2017-01-01

    Categorization is necessary for many decision making tasks. However, the categorization process may interfere the decision making result and the law of total probability can be violated in some situations. To predict the interference effect of categorization, some model based on quantum probability has been proposed. In this paper, a new quantum dynamic belief (QDB) model is proposed. Considering the precise decision may not be made during the process, the concept of uncertainty is introduced...

  7. Keefektifan Model Kooperatif Tipe Make A Match dan Model CPS Terhadap Kemampuan Pemecahan Masalah dan Motivasi Belajar

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nur Fitri Amalia

    2013-12-01

    proportion test and t test. The results of the study were (1 the implementation of cooperative model Make a Match effective against problem solving abilities; (2 the implementation of the CPS model effective against problem solving abilities; (3 the implementation of the cooperative model Make a Match was better than the model CPS to issue fractional capability; (4 the implementation of the cooperative model Make a Match was better than the model CPS on motivation to learn.Keywords:          Make A Match; CPS; Poblem Solving; Motivation

  8. [Direct method of temporary restoration making with the help of 3D-modeling].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riakhovskiĭ, A N; Kalacheva, Ia A

    2010-01-01

    Use of temporary restorations in the process of prosthetic rehabilitation is generally accepted practice. Direct method of temporary restoration making as the results of computer modeling is offered. The method essence is in translation of the results of 3D computer modeling of the dentition into stereolithographic model from which later on silicone print (key) is taken; further on it is used for making temporary restoration by the direct method. Such method let in advance work off form and size of the future permanent restorations with taking into account peculiarities of the face and the smile of each patient and receive predictable aesthetic result and increase patient's motivation to the treatment.

  9. Interpreting Results from the Multinomial Logit Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wulff, Jesper

    2015-01-01

    This article provides guidelines and illustrates practical steps necessary for an analysis of results from the multinomial logit model (MLM). The MLM is a popular model in the strategy literature because it allows researchers to examine strategic choices with multiple outcomes. However, there see...

  10. Risk-based decision making in water management using probabilistic forecasts: results from a game experiment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crochemore, Louise; Ramos, Maria-Helena; Pappenberger, Florian; van Andel, Schalk-Jan; Wood, Andy

    2014-05-01

    Probabilistic streamflow forecasts have been increasingly used or requested by practitioners in the operation of multipurpose water reservoirs. They usually integrate hydrologic inflow forecasts to their operational management rules to optimize water allocation or its economic value, to mitigate droughts, for flood and ecological control, among others. In this paper, we present an experiment conducted to investigate the use of probabilistic forecasts to make decisions on water reservoir outflows. The experiment was set up as a risk-based decision-making game. In the game, each participant acted as a water manager. A sequence of probabilistic inflow forecasts was presented to be used to make a reservoir release decision at a monthly time step, subject to a few constraints. After each decision, the actual inflow was presented and the consequences of the decisions made were discussed. Results from the application of the game to different groups of scientists and operational managers during conferences and meetings in 2013 (a total of about 150 participants) illustrate the different strategies adopted by the players. This game experiment allowed participants to experience first hand the challenges of probabilistic, quantitative decision-making.

  11. Multi-level decision making models, methods and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Zhang, Guangquan; Gao, Ya

    2015-01-01

    This monograph presents new developments in multi-level decision-making theory, technique and method in both modeling and solution issues. It especially presents how a decision support system can support managers in reaching a solution to a multi-level decision problem in practice. This monograph combines decision theories, methods, algorithms and applications effectively. It discusses in detail the models and solution algorithms of each issue of bi-level and tri-level decision-making, such as multi-leaders, multi-followers, multi-objectives, rule-set-based, and fuzzy parameters. Potential readers include organizational managers and practicing professionals, who can use the methods and software provided to solve their real decision problems; PhD students and researchers in the areas of bi-level and multi-level decision-making and decision support systems; students at an advanced undergraduate, master’s level in information systems, business administration, or the application of computer science.  

  12. Beyond pain: modeling decision-making deficits in chronic pain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hess, Leonardo Emanuel; Haimovici, Ariel; Muñoz, Miguel Angel; Montoya, Pedro

    2014-01-01

    Risky decision-making seems to be markedly disrupted in patients with chronic pain, probably due to the high cost that impose pain and negative mood on executive control functions. Patients’ behavioral performance on decision-making tasks such as the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) is characterized by selecting cards more frequently from disadvantageous than from advantageous decks, and by switching often between competing responses in comparison with healthy controls (HCs). In the present study, we developed a simple heuristic model to simulate individuals’ choice behavior by varying the level of decision randomness and the importance given to gains and losses. The findings revealed that the model was able to differentiate the behavioral performance of patients with chronic pain and HCs at the group, as well as at the individual level. The best fit of the model in patients with chronic pain was yielded when decisions were not based on previous choices and when gains were considered more relevant than losses. By contrast, the best account of the available data in HCs was obtained when decisions were based on previous experiences and losses loomed larger than gains. In conclusion, our model seems to provide useful information to measure each individual participant extensively, and to deal with the data on a participant-by-participant basis. PMID:25136301

  13. Beyond pain: modeling decision-making deficits in chronic pain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leonardo Emanuel Hess

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Risky decision-making seems to be markedly disrupted in patients with chronic pain, probably due to the high cost that impose pain and negative mood on executive control functions. Patients’ behavioral performance on decision-making tasks such as the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT is characterized by selecting cards more frequently from disadvantageous than from advantageous decks, and by switching often between competing responses in comparison with healthy controls. In the present study, we developed a simple heuristic model to simulate individuals’ choice behavior by varying the level of decision randomness and the importance given to gains and losses. The findings revealed that the model was able to differentiate the behavioral performance of patients with chronic pain and healthy controls at the group, as well as at the individual level. The best fit of the model in patients with chronic pain was yielded when decisions were not based on previous choices and when gains were considered more relevant than losses. By contrast, the best account of the available data in healthy controls was obtained when decisions were based on previous experiences and losses loomed larger than gains. In conclusion, our model seems to provide useful information to measure each individual participant extensively, and to deal with the data on a participant-by-participant basis.

  14. The two-model problem in rational decision making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boumans, Marcel

    2011-01-01

    A model of a decision problem frames that problem in three dimensions: sample space, target probability and information structure. Each specific model imposes a specific rational decision. As a result, different models may impose different, even contradictory, rational decisions, creating choice ‘an

  15. Treatment decision-making and the form of risk communication: results of a factorial survey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Holmes-Rovner Margaret

    2004-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Prospective users of preventive therapies often must evaluate complex information about therapeutic risks and benefits. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effect of relative and absolute risk information on patient decision-making in scenarios typical of health information for patients. Methods Factorial experiments within a telephone survey of the Michigan adult, non-institutionalized, English-speaking population. Average interview lasted 23 minutes. Subjects and sample design: 952 randomly selected adults within a random-digit dial sample of Michigan households. Completion rate was 54.3%. Results When presented hypothetical information regarding additional risks of breast cancer from a medication to prevent a bone disease, respondents reduced their willingness to recommend a female friend take the medication compared to the baseline rate (66.8% = yes. The decrease was significantly greater with relative risk information. Additional benefit information regarding preventing heart disease from the medication increased willingness to recommend the medication to a female friend relative to the baseline scenario, but did not differ between absolute and relative risk formats. When information about both increased risk of breast cancer and reduced risk of heart disease were provided, typical respondents appeared to make rational decisions consistent with Expected Utility Theory, but the information presentation format affected choices. Those 11% – 33% making decisions contrary to the medical indications were more likely to be Hispanic, older, more educated, smokers, and to have children in the home. Conclusions In scenarios typical of health risk information, relative risk information led respondents to make non-normative decisions that were "corrected" when the frame used absolute risk information. This population sample made generally rational decisions when presented with absolute risk information, even in the

  16. What Factors Moderate Self-Other Discrepancies in Decision Making? Results from a Vaccination Scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petrova, Dafina; Garcia-Retamero, Rocio; van der Pligt, Joop

    2016-09-20

    When we make risky decisions for others, we tend to follow social norms about risks. This often results in making different decisions for others than we would make for ourselves in a similar situation (i.e., self-other discrepancies). In an experiment, we investigated self-other discrepancies in young adults' decisions to purchase a vaccine against a sexually-transmitted virus for themselves or for another person (i.e., the target of the decision). When the target's preferences were in line with social norms, surrogates showed large self-other discrepancies in line with these norms. When the target's preferences were contrary to social norms, surrogates did not show self-other discrepancies in line with these preferences; instead they still followed social norms, F(1, 140) = 21.45, p other discrepancies more in line with the target's preferences, even when these were contrary to the norm. Surrogates whose own risk attitudes were contrary to social norms showed larger self-other discrepancies, F(1, 128) = 5.38, p = .022, η p 2 = .04. These results demonstrate that perceived social norms about risk can predict self-other discrepancies in risky decisions, even when the target's preferences are known and at odds with the social norm. Further, the surrogates' numeracy, empathy, and propensity to take risks influence the extent to which risky decisions for others resemble risky decisions for oneself.

  17. IMPORTANCE OF DIFFERENT MODELS IN DECISION MAKING, EXPLAINING THE STRATEGIC BEHAVIOR IN ORGANIZATIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristiano de Oliveira Maciel

    2006-11-01

    Full Text Available This study is about the different models of decision process analyzing the organizational strategy. The article presents the strategy according to a cognitive approach. The discussion about that approach has three models of decision process: rational actor model, organizational behavior, and political model. These models, respectively, present some improvement in the decision making results, search for a good decision facing the cognitive restrictions of the administrator, and lots of talks for making a decision. According to the emphasis of each model, the possibilities for analyzing the strategy are presented. The article also shows that it is necessary to take into account the three different ways of analysis. That statement is justified once the analysis as well as the decision making become more complex, mainly those which are more important for the organizations.

  18. Modelling Framework to Support Decision-Making in Manufacturing Enterprises

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tariq Masood

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Systematic model-driven decision-making is crucial to design, engineer, and transform manufacturing enterprises (MEs. Choosing and applying the best philosophies and techniques is challenging as most MEs deploy complex and unique configurations of process-resource systems and seek economies of scope and scale in respect of changing and distinctive product flows. This paper presents a novel systematic enhanced integrated modelling framework to facilitate transformation of MEs, which is centred on CIMOSA. Application of the new framework in an automotive industrial case study is also presented. The following new contributions to knowledge are made: (1 an innovative structured framework that can support various decisions in design, optimisation, and control to reconfigure MEs; (2 an enriched and generic process modelling approach with capability to represent both static and dynamic aspects of MEs; and (3 an automotive industrial case application showing benefits in terms of reduced lead time and cost with improved responsiveness of process-resource system with a special focus on PPC. It is anticipated that the new framework is not limited to only automotive industry but has a wider scope of application. Therefore, it would be interesting to extend its testing with different configurations and decision-making levels.

  19. Decision Making Model for Business Process Outsourcing of Enterprise Content Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhuojun Yi

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Business process outsourcing (BPO in enterprise content management (ECM is a growing though immature market. BPO in ECM focuses on pursuing market transactions in the process of managing all types of content being used in organizations. However, inadequate sourcing decisions lead to organizational sensitive content exposure, high transaction cost, poor outsourcer performance, low flexibility. ECM BPO in general is rarely discussed in the literature and no discussion was found on decision making strategies in ECM BPO. In this paper, we present a decision making model for ECM BPO that will fill the literature gap and guide industry practitioners with ECM sourcing decision making strategies. Our proposed decision making model includes two parts. Part one is an ECM functional framework that shows what functionality component or functionality combinations can be outsourced. Part two is a decision making model that provides guidance for decision making in ECM BPO. We apply the model in two case studies, and the results indicate that the model can guide the sourcing decision making process for organizations, and determine the factors when considering sourcing alternatives in ECM.

  20. Meaning-Making, Adult Learning and Development: A Model with Implications for Practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merriam, Sharan B.; Heuer, Barbara

    1996-01-01

    Reviews concepts of meaning making in classical and contemporary writing. Examines models of cognitive and ego development linked with meaning making and draws a model of the relationship of meaning making to adult learning and development. (SK)

  1. Individual Decision-Making to Commit a Crime: A Survey of Early Models

    OpenAIRE

    Roman Horváth; Eva Kolomazníková

    2003-01-01

    The authors provide a survey of the most important findings of the early models of the economics of crime, namely the models of Becker, Ehrlich and Heineke. These models study rational individual decision-making about entering into illegal activities. Probability and size of punishment, attitudes towards risk, gains from crime and income are the main variables influencing the results of individual behavior. The authors also discuss weaknesses of these models such as their static nature or the...

  2. Decision making with consonant belief functions: Discrepancy resulting with the probability transformation method used

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cinicioglu Esma Nur

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Dempster−Shafer belief function theory can address a wider class of uncertainty than the standard probability theory does, and this fact appeals the researchers in operations research society for potential application areas. However, the lack of a decision theory of belief functions gives rise to the need to use the probability transformation methods for decision making. For representation of statistical evidence, the class of consonant belief functions is used which is not closed under Dempster’s rule of combination but is closed under Walley’s rule of combination. In this research, it is shown that the outcomes obtained using both Dempster’s and Walley’s rules do result in different probability distributions when pignistic transformation is used. However, when plausibility transformation is used, they do result in the same probability distribution. This result shows that the choice of the combination rule and probability transformation method may have a significant effect on decision making since it may change the choice of the decision alternative selected. This result is illustrated via an example of missile type identification.

  3. Performance results of HESP physical model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chanumolu, Anantha; Thirupathi, Sivarani; Jones, Damien; Giridhar, Sunetra; Grobler, Deon; Jakobsson, Robert

    2017-02-01

    As a continuation to the published work on model based calibration technique with HESP(Hanle Echelle Spectrograph) as a case study, in this paper we present the performance results of the technique. We also describe how the open parameters were chosen in the model for optimization, the glass data accuracy and handling the discrepancies. It is observed through simulations that the discrepancies in glass data can be identified but not quantifiable. So having an accurate glass data is important which is possible to obtain from the glass manufacturers. The model's performance in various aspects is presented using the ThAr calibration frames from HESP during its pre-shipment tests. Accuracy of model predictions and its wave length calibration comparison with conventional empirical fitting, the behaviour of open parameters in optimization, model's ability to track instrumental drifts in the spectrum and the double fibres performance were discussed. It is observed that the optimized model is able to predict to a high accuracy the drifts in the spectrum from environmental fluctuations. It is also observed that the pattern in the spectral drifts across the 2D spectrum which vary from image to image is predictable with the optimized model. We will also discuss the possible science cases where the model can contribute.

  4. The role of doing and making models with materials

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Kirsten Bonde; Evers, Winie

    2015-01-01

    This paper seeks to demonstrate the central role of making and creating models in what we call “designerly and human-centred entrepreneurship”. We refer to empirics from studies of Danish entrepreneurs working on how to develop their businesses. In Drucker´s (2001) “Management Challenges for the 21...... Design Management, since, if it stays within the current Functionalist paradigm, it is difficult or even impossible to embrace the ambiguous aspects of praxis-based design knowledge (Johansson & Woodilla, 2011). We believe this paper contributes to the more humanist and interpretive paradigm, by bringing...... and identity. Thus we highlight, and suggest the current design management discourse to promote, the strong role design processes with materials can play in business modelling and entrepreneurship....

  5. The ethical decision making model in obstetrics and gynaecology practice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nazimah Idris

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper attempts to utilise clinical scenarios where ethical issues are embedded and requires appropriate application of the steps of the framework mentioned. A step by step sequential approach is adopted to illustrate how the ‘ethical decision model ‘can be used to resolve ethical problems to arrive at a reasonable conclusion. The UNESCO ethical method of reasoning is used as the framework for decision making. Physicianeducators should be competent to use ethical decision models as well as best available scientific evidence to be able to arrive at the best decision for patient care as well as teach health professional trainees how reasonable treatment decisions can be made within the perimeter of medical law and social justice.

  6. A Hybrid Multiple Criteria Decision Making Model for Supplier Selection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chung-Min Wu

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The sustainable supplier selection would be the vital part in the management of a sustainable supply chain. In this study, a hybrid multiple criteria decision making (MCDM model is applied to select optimal supplier. The fuzzy Delphi method, which can lead to better criteria selection, is used to modify criteria. Considering the interdependence among the selection criteria, analytic network process (ANP is then used to obtain their weights. To avoid calculation and additional pairwise comparisons of ANP, a technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS is used to rank the alternatives. The use of a combination of the fuzzy Delphi method, ANP, and TOPSIS, proposing an MCDM model for supplier selection, and applying these to a real case are the unique features of this study.

  7. Modeling Malaysia's Energy System: Some Preliminary Results

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmad M. Yusof

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Problem statement: The current dynamic and fragile world energy environment necessitates the development of new energy model that solely caters to analyze Malaysia’s energy scenarios. Approach: The model is a network flow model that traces the flow of energy carriers from its sources (import and mining through some conversion and transformation processes for the production of energy products to final destinations (energy demand sectors. The integration to the economic sectors is done exogeneously by specifying the annual sectoral energy demand levels. The model in turn optimizes the energy variables for a specified objective function to meet those demands. Results: By minimizing the inter temporal petroleum product imports for the crude oil system the annual extraction level of Tapis blend is projected at 579600 barrels per day. The aggregate demand for petroleum products is projected to grow at 2.1% year-1 while motor gasoline and diesel constitute 42 and 38% of the petroleum products demands mix respectively over the 5 year planning period. Petroleum products import is expected to grow at 6.0% year-1. Conclusion: The preliminary results indicate that the model performs as expected. Thus other types of energy carriers such as natural gas, coal and biomass will be added to the energy system for the overall development of Malaysia energy model.

  8. Automatically updating predictive modeling workflows support decision-making in drug design.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muegge, Ingo; Bentzien, Jörg; Mukherjee, Prasenjit; Hughes, Robert O

    2016-09-01

    Using predictive models for early decision-making in drug discovery has become standard practice. We suggest that model building needs to be automated with minimum input and low technical maintenance requirements. Models perform best when tailored to answering specific compound optimization related questions. If qualitative answers are required, 2-bin classification models are preferred. Integrating predictive modeling results with structural information stimulates better decision making. For in silico models supporting rapid structure-activity relationship cycles the performance deteriorates within weeks. Frequent automated updates of predictive models ensure best predictions. Consensus between multiple modeling approaches increases the prediction confidence. Combining qualified and nonqualified data optimally uses all available information. Dose predictions provide a holistic alternative to multiple individual property predictions for reaching complex decisions.

  9. A physiological production model for cacao : results of model simulations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zuidema, P.A.; Leffelaar, P.A.

    2002-01-01

    CASE2 is a physiological model for cocoa (Theobroma cacao L.) growth and yield. This report introduces the CAcao Simulation Engine for water-limited production in a non-technical way and presents simulation results obtained with the model.

  10. A physiological production model for cacao : results of model simulations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zuidema, P.A.; Leffelaar, P.A.

    2002-01-01

    CASE2 is a physiological model for cocoa (Theobroma cacao L.) growth and yield. This report introduces the CAcao Simulation Engine for water-limited production in a non-technical way and presents simulation results obtained with the model.

  11. Modelling rainfall erosion resulting from climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kinnell, Peter

    2016-04-01

    It is well known that soil erosion leads to agricultural productivity decline and contributes to water quality decline. The current widely used models for determining soil erosion for management purposes in agriculture focus on long term (~20 years) average annual soil loss and are not well suited to determining variations that occur over short timespans and as a result of climate change. Soil loss resulting from rainfall erosion is directly dependent on the product of runoff and sediment concentration both of which are likely to be influenced by climate change. This presentation demonstrates the capacity of models like the USLE, USLE-M and WEPP to predict variations in runoff and erosion associated with rainfall events eroding bare fallow plots in the USA with a view to modelling rainfall erosion in areas subject to climate change.

  12. Simulation Modeling of Radio Direction Finding Results

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Pelikan

    1994-12-01

    Full Text Available It is sometimes difficult to determine analytically error probabilities of direction finding results for evaluating algorithms of practical interest. Probalistic simulation models are described in this paper that can be to study error performance of new direction finding systems or to geographical modifications of existing configurations.

  13. Evidence accumulation in decision making: unifying the "take the best" and the "rational" models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Michael D; Cummins, Tarrant D R

    2004-04-01

    An evidence accumulation model of forced-choice decision making is proposed to unify the fast and frugal take the best (TTB) model and the alternative rational (RAT) model with which it is usually contrasted. The basic idea is to treat the TTB model as a sequential-sampling process that terminates as soon as any evidence in favor of a decision is found and the rational approach as a sequential-sampling process that terminates only when all available information has been assessed. The unified TTB and RAT models were tested in an experiment in which participants learned to make correct judgments for a set of real-world stimuli on the basis of feedback, and were then asked to make additional judgments without feedback for cases in which the TTB and the rational models made different predictions. The results show that, in both experiments, there was strong intraparticipant consistency in the use of either the TTB or the rational model but large interparticipant differences in which model was used. The unified model is shown to be able to capture the differences in decision making across participants in an interpretable way and is preferred by the minimum description length model selection criterion.

  14. A decision-making model of gear process for green manufacturing

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2003-01-01

    A decision-making model of gear process for green manufacturing is presented, which integrates the five objectives including the time, quality, cost, resource consumption and environmental impact of gear process together into the development of a strategy. Mathematical description is provided for the multi-objectives decision-making model. The expert judgment and the multi-fuzzy assessment theory are introduced to do sensible comparisons and give quantitative results. A case study on practical cutting tool selection in gear machining demonstrates that the proposed model is applicable.

  15. UTILIZATION OF EVALUATION RESULTS IN LEGAL POLICY-MAKING AND ADMINISTRATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hellmut Wollmann

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The article is devoted to the analysis of evaluation method and its impact on legal policy development in governance, including in the area of law enforcement.The author outlines the importance of question whether, when and how the evaluation results of public policies, programs and measures has been utilized (or not utilized in policy making and policy implementation.In the pursuit of this guiding question the article will come in five steps.First, major variants of evaluation will be briefly presented particularly with an eye on their respective “utilization potential”.Second, different concepts will be sketched that have been forwarded to capture the utilization of social science generated knowledge by political, administrative and social actors. The author outlines a detailed description of types of evaluations: a retrospective, prelimi-nary, ongoing, interactive, – as well as existing concepts of application of its results.Third, looking at Germany, Switzerland and the European Union as “cases in point” perti-ent research findings will be discussed. The article also subjected to a detailed analysis of the experience of Germany, Switzerland and the European Union in the field of utilization of evaluation results.Fourth, a summary and conclusion will be given.Fifth, some remarks on pertinent research needs will be made.The author comes to the conclusion that that the rate of the utilization of evaluation-generated knowledge has so far turned out be, by and large, scarce. The author says that re-garding the politically crucial decisions the political rationality and its underlying political will of the decision-makers prevail while concerning less important decisions evaluation-generated evidence does show some effect and, hence, a dose of scientific rationality comes to the fore.There is also a need for further research on the subject of how should (and should not use assessment results when making legal and political decisions.

  16. Model approach to starch functionality in bread making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goesaert, Hans; Leman, Pedro; Delcour, Jan A

    2008-08-13

    We used modified wheat starches in gluten-starch flour models to study the role of starch in bread making. Incorporation of hydroxypropylated starch in the recipe reduced loaf volume and initial crumb firmness and increased crumb gas cell size. Firming rate and firmness after storage increased for loaves containing the least hydroxypropylated starch. Inclusion of cross-linked starch had little effect on loaf volume or crumb structure but increased crumb firmness. The firming rate was mostly similar to that of control samples. Presumably, the moment and extent of starch gelatinization and the concomitant water migration influence the structure formation during baking. Initial bread firmness seems determined by the rigidity of the gelatinized granules and leached amylose. Amylopectin retrogradation and strengthening of a long-range network by intensifying the inter- and intramolecular starch-starch and possibly also starch-gluten interactions (presumably because of water incorporation in retrograded amylopectin crystallites) play an important role in firming.

  17. Management decision making for fisher populations informed by occupancy modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuller, Angela K.; Linden, Daniel W.; Royle, J. Andrew

    2016-01-01

    Harvest data are often used by wildlife managers when setting harvest regulations for species because the data are regularly collected and do not require implementation of logistically and financially challenging studies to obtain the data. However, when harvest data are not available because an area had not previously supported a harvest season, alternative approaches are required to help inform management decision making. When distribution or density data are required across large areas, occupancy modeling is a useful approach, and under certain conditions, can be used as a surrogate for density. We collaborated with the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation (NYSDEC) to conduct a camera trapping study across a 70,096-km2 region of southern New York in areas that were currently open to fisher (Pekania [Martes] pennanti) harvest and those that had been closed to harvest for approximately 65 years. We used detection–nondetection data at 826 sites to model occupancy as a function of site-level landscape characteristics while accounting for sampling variation. Fisher occupancy was influenced positively by the proportion of conifer and mixed-wood forest within a 15-km2 grid cell and negatively associated with road density and the proportion of agriculture. Model-averaged predictions indicated high occupancy probabilities (>0.90) when road densities were low (0.50). Predicted occupancy ranged 0.41–0.67 in wildlife management units (WMUs) currently open to trapping, which could be used to guide a minimum occupancy threshold for opening new areas to trapping seasons. There were 5 WMUs that had been closed to trapping but had an average predicted occupancy of 0.52 (0.07 SE), and above the threshold of 0.41. These areas are currently under consideration by NYSDEC for opening a conservative harvest season. We demonstrate the use of occupancy modeling as an aid to management decision making when harvest-related data are unavailable and when budgetary

  18. Do the physiotherapy results make us happy in a case with 'happy puppet' (Angelman) syndrome?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kara, Ozgun Kaya; Mutlu, Akmer; Gunel, Mintaze Kerem; Haliloglu, Goknur

    2010-12-29

    This study aimed to investigate the benefits of physiotherapy programme in a patient with Angelman syndrome (AS) during a follow-up of 3 years. Assessments included: disability level with gross motor function classification systems, gross motor function with gross motor function measurement (GMFM), balance with Berg Balance Scale, motor performance with gross motor performance measurement (GMPM) and tonus assessment with Modified Ashworth Scale. Physiotherapy programme was performed during 36 months, 3 days per week by physical therapist according to Neurodevelopmental Treatment approach. During the 36 months, GMFM increased from 11.46% to 70.82% and GMPM increased from 1.25% to 70.25%. This case report is the first study about the effectiveness of physiotherapy with medium-term follow-up in a child with AS. Physiotherapy results make us happy in this particular patient with 'happy puppet' syndrome.

  19. Opinion: the use of natural hazard modeling for decision making under uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David E Calkin

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Decision making to mitigate the effects of natural hazards is a complex undertaking fraught with uncertainty. Models to describe risks associated with natural hazards have proliferated in recent years. Concurrently, there is a growing body of work focused on developing best practices for natural hazard modeling and to create structured evaluation criteria for complex environmental models. However, to our knowledge there has been less focus on the conditions where decision makers can confidently rely on results from these models. In this review we propose a preliminary set of conditions necessary for the appropriate application of modeled results to natural hazard decision making and provide relevant examples within US wildfire management programs.

  20. Training Inference Making Skills Using a Situation Model Approach Improves Reading Comprehension

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lisanne eBos

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available This study aimed to enhance third and fourth graders’ text comprehension at the situation model level. Therefore, we tested a reading strategy training developed to target inference making skills, which are widely considered to be pivotal to situation model construction. The training was grounded in contemporary literature on situation model-based inference making and addressed the source (text-based versus knowledge-based, type (necessary versus unnecessary for (re-establishing coherence, and depth of an inference (making single lexical inferences versus combining multiple lexical inferences, as well as the type of searching strategy (forward versus backward. Results indicated that, compared to a control group (n = 51, children who followed the experimental training (n = 67 improved their inference making skills supportive to situation model construction. Importantly, our training also resulted in increased levels of general reading comprehension and motivation. In sum, this study showed that a ‘level of text representation’-approach can provide a useful framework to teach inference making skills to third and fourth graders.

  1. Training Inference Making Skills Using a Situation Model Approach Improves Reading Comprehension.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bos, Lisanne T; De Koning, Bjorn B; Wassenburg, Stephanie I; van der Schoot, Menno

    2016-01-01

    This study aimed to enhance third and fourth graders' text comprehension at the situation model level. Therefore, we tested a reading strategy training developed to target inference making skills, which are widely considered to be pivotal to situation model construction. The training was grounded in contemporary literature on situation model-based inference making and addressed the source (text-based versus knowledge-based), type (necessary versus unnecessary for (re-)establishing coherence), and depth of an inference (making single lexical inferences versus combining multiple lexical inferences), as well as the type of searching strategy (forward versus backward). Results indicated that, compared to a control group (n = 51), children who followed the experimental training (n = 67) improved their inference making skills supportive to situation model construction. Importantly, our training also resulted in increased levels of general reading comprehension and motivation. In sum, this study showed that a 'level of text representation'-approach can provide a useful framework to teach inference making skills to third and fourth graders.

  2. Summary of FY15 results of benchmark modeling activities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Arguello, J. Guadalupe [Sandia National Laboratories (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2015-08-01

    Sandia is participating in the third phase of an is a contributing partner to a U.S.-German "Joint Project" entitled "Comparison of current constitutive models and simulation procedures on the basis of model calculations of the thermo-mechanical behavior and healing of rock salt." The first goal of the project is to check the ability of numerical modeling tools to correctly describe the relevant deformation phenomena in rock salt under various influences. Achieving this goal will lead to increased confidence in the results of numerical simulations related to the secure storage of radioactive wastes in rock salt, thereby enhancing the acceptance of the results. These results may ultimately be used to make various assertions regarding both the stability analysis of an underground repository in salt, during the operating phase, and the long-term integrity of the geological barrier against the release of harmful substances into the biosphere, in the post-operating phase.

  3. Regulator Loss Functions and Hierarchical Modeling for Safety Decision Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hatfield, Laura A; Baugh, Christine M; Azzone, Vanessa; Normand, Sharon-Lise T

    2017-07-01

    Regulators must act to protect the public when evidence indicates safety problems with medical devices. This requires complex tradeoffs among risks and benefits, which conventional safety surveillance methods do not incorporate. To combine explicit regulator loss functions with statistical evidence on medical device safety signals to improve decision making. In the Hospital Cost and Utilization Project National Inpatient Sample, we select pediatric inpatient admissions and identify adverse medical device events (AMDEs). We fit hierarchical Bayesian models to the annual hospital-level AMDE rates, accounting for patient and hospital characteristics. These models produce expected AMDE rates (a safety target), against which we compare the observed rates in a test year to compute a safety signal. We specify a set of loss functions that quantify the costs and benefits of each action as a function of the safety signal. We integrate the loss functions over the posterior distribution of the safety signal to obtain the posterior (Bayes) risk; the preferred action has the smallest Bayes risk. Using simulation and an analysis of AMDE data, we compare our minimum-risk decisions to a conventional Z score approach for classifying safety signals. The 2 rules produced different actions for nearly half of hospitals (45%). In the simulation, decisions that minimize Bayes risk outperform Z score-based decisions, even when the loss functions or hierarchical models are misspecified. Our method is sensitive to the choice of loss functions; eliciting quantitative inputs to the loss functions from regulators is challenging. A decision-theoretic approach to acting on safety signals is potentially promising but requires careful specification of loss functions in consultation with subject matter experts.

  4. MODELING OF ACCOUNTING ASPECTS OF FINANCIAL RESULTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hrayr HANISYAN

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Modern trends in world economy require expanding functional informational capabilities of financial statements. Market-oriented users of financial statements are interested in information necessary when making decisions of financial character.

  5. MODELING OF ACCOUNTING ASPECTS OF FINANCIAL RESULTS

    OpenAIRE

    Hrayr HANISYAN; Hasmik HANISYAN

    2014-01-01

    Modern trends in world economy require expanding functional informational capabilities of financial statements. Market-oriented users of financial statements are interested in information necessary when making decisions of financial character.

  6. The Effects of Model Making on Design and Learning in Landscape Architecture Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duzenli, Tugba; Yilmaz, Serap; Alpak, Elif Merve

    2017-01-01

    Purpose: One of the modeling methods used in the training of all design disciplines is physical model making. This study investigates the model-making technique and emphasizes the positive effects of model-making and its utility in the academic setting in order to understand its effects on design and learning. The "Equipment Design"…

  7. Knowledge Co-production Strategies for Water Resources Modeling and Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gober, P.

    2016-12-01

    The limited impact of scientific information on policy making and climate adaptation in North America has raised awareness of the need for new modeling strategies and knowledge transfer processes. This paper outlines the rationale for a new paradigm in water resources modeling and management, using examples from the USA and Canada. Principles include anticipatory modeling, complex system dynamics, decision making under uncertainty, visualization, capacity to represent and manipulate critical trade-offs, stakeholder engagement, local knowledge, context-specific activities, social learning, vulnerability analysis, iterative and collaborative modeling, and the concept of a boundary organization. In this framework, scientists and stakeholders are partners in the production and dissemination of knowledge for decision making, and local knowledge is fused with scientific observation and methodology. Discussion draws from experience in building long-term collaborative boundary organizations in Phoenix, Arizona in the USA and the Saskatchewan River Basin (SRB) in Canada. Examples of boundary spanning activities include the use of visualization, the concept of a decision theater, infrastructure to support social learning, social networks, and reciprocity, simulation modeling to explore "what if" scenarios of the future, surveys to elicit how water problems are framed by scientists and stakeholders, and humanistic activities (theatrical performances, art exhibitions, etc.) to draw attention to local water issues. The social processes surrounding model development and dissemination are at least as important as modeling assumptions, procedures, and results in determining whether scientific knowledge will be used effectively for water resources decision making.

  8. The Danish national passenger modelModel specification and results

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rich, Jeppe; Hansen, Christian Overgaard

    2016-01-01

    The paper describes the structure of the new Danish National Passenger model and provides on this basis a general discussion of large-scale model design, cost-damping and model validation. The paper aims at providing three main contributions to the existing literature. Firstly, at the general level......, the paper provides a description of a large-scale forecast model with a discussion of the linkage between population synthesis, demand and assignment. Secondly, the paper gives specific attention to model specification and in particular choice of functional form and cost-damping. Specifically we suggest...... a family of logarithmic spline functions and illustrate how it is applied in the model. Thirdly and finally, we evaluate model sensitivity and performance by evaluating the distance distribution and elasticities. In the paper we present results where the spline-function is compared with more traditional...

  9. RESEARCH OF MULTICRITERIAL DECISION-MAKING MODEL FOR EDUCATIONAL INFORMATION SYSTEMS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. V. Serbin

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Subject of Research. Decision-making model is offered for informational and educational systems. The study of multi-criteria model is carried out taking into account knowledge, reaction and doubt. Method. The model of material proficiency by the user is based on identification of the personal characteristics when operating with the system. As a result of personal characteristics tracking in the system, an image is formed for each user that can be used for identifying his state: knowledge level, proportion of error, handwriting information, etc. During registration the user is passing an input test. Multi-criteria test results are automatically stored in the user's personal database (agent matrix and accounted for psychological comfort, formation of the next system content, management of knowledge levels, decision-making when working with the system. The proposed method gives a more clear and "transparent situational picture" for objective decision-making. Main Results. Implementation of multi-criteria decision-making model contributes to the quality of distance education. Also, the method makes it possible to reduce the probability of guessing the correct answer, thus increases the objectivity of knowledge level evaluation in diagnostic systems for management of learning process based on remote technologies. Practical Relevance. Obtained theoretical results of the work are used in training systems on the basis of multi-criteria decision models. Thus, the proposed model leads to an increase in the average score of about 0.3-0.4 points and reduces the training time in 1.5 to 2.0 times.

  10. Modelling human decision-making in coupled human and natural systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feola, G.

    2012-12-01

    A solid understanding of human decision-making is essential to analyze the complexity of coupled human and natural systems (CHANS) and inform policies to promote resilience in the face of environmental change. Human decisions drive and/or mediate the interactions and feedbacks, and contribute to the heterogeneity and non-linearity that characterize CHANS. However, human decision-making is usually over-simplistically modeled, whereby human agents are represented deterministically either as dumb or clairvoyant decision-makers. Decision-making models fall short in the integration of both environmental and human behavioral drivers, and concerning the latter, tend to focus on only one category, e.g. economic, cultural, or psychological. Furthermore, these models render a linear decision-making process and therefore fail to account for the recursive co-evolutionary dynamics in CHANS. As a result, these models constitute only a weak basis for policy-making. There is therefore scope and an urgent need for better approaches to human decision-making, to produce the knowledge that can inform vulnerability reduction policies in the face of environmental change. This presentation synthesizes the current state-of-the-art of modelling human decision-making in CHANS, with particular reference to agricultural systems, and delineates how the above mentioned shortcomings can be overcome. Through examples from research on pesticide use and adaptation to climate change, both based on the integrative agent-centered framework (Feola and Binder, 2010), the approach for an improved understanding of human agents in CHANS are illustrated. This entails: integrative approach, focus on behavioral dynamics more than states, feedbacks between individual and system levels, and openness to heterogeneity.

  11. Reward optimization in the primate brain: a probabilistic model of decision making under uncertainty.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yanping Huang

    Full Text Available A key problem in neuroscience is understanding how the brain makes decisions under uncertainty. Important insights have been gained using tasks such as the random dots motion discrimination task in which the subject makes decisions based on noisy stimuli. A descriptive model known as the drift diffusion model has previously been used to explain psychometric and reaction time data from such tasks but to fully explain the data, one is forced to make ad-hoc assumptions such as a time-dependent collapsing decision boundary. We show that such assumptions are unnecessary when decision making is viewed within the framework of partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs. We propose an alternative model for decision making based on POMDPs. We show that the motion discrimination task reduces to the problems of (1 computing beliefs (posterior distributions over the unknown direction and motion strength from noisy observations in a bayesian manner, and (2 selecting actions based on these beliefs to maximize the expected sum of future rewards. The resulting optimal policy (belief-to-action mapping is shown to be equivalent to a collapsing decision threshold that governs the switch from evidence accumulation to a discrimination decision. We show that the model accounts for both accuracy and reaction time as a function of stimulus strength as well as different speed-accuracy conditions in the random dots task.

  12. Bayesian network modeling method based on case reasoning for emergency decision-making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    XU Lei

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Bayesian network has the abilities of probability expression, uncertainty management and multi-information fusion.It can support emergency decision-making, which can improve the efficiency of decision-making.Emergency decision-making is highly time sensitive, which requires shortening the Bayesian Network modeling time as far as possible.Traditional Bayesian network modeling methods are clearly unable to meet that requirement.Thus, a Bayesian network modeling method based on case reasoning for emergency decision-making is proposed.The method can obtain optional cases through case matching by the functions of similarity degree and deviation degree.Then,new Bayesian network can be built through case adjustment by case merging and pruning.An example is presented to illustrate and test the proposed method.The result shows that the method does not have a huge search space or need sample data.The only requirement is the collection of expert knowledge and historical case models.Compared with traditional methods, the proposed method can reuse historical case models, which can reduce the modeling time and improve the efficiency.

  13. CMS standard model Higgs boson results

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Garcia-Abia Pablo

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available In July 2012 CMS announced the discovery of a new boson with properties resembling those of the long-sought Higgs boson. The analysis of the proton-proton collision data recorded by the CMS detector at the LHC, corresponding to integrated luminosities of 5.1 fb−1 at √s = 7 TeV and 19.6 fb−1 at √s = 8 TeV, confirm the Higgs-like nature of the new boson, with a signal strength associated with vector bosons and fermions consistent with the expectations for a standard model (SM Higgs boson, and spin-parity clearly favouring the scalar nature of the new boson. In this note I review the updated results of the CMS experiment.

  14. Application of an Optimized Entropy-TOPSIS Multicriteria Decision Making Model to Facilities Management

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Zhao-hong; ZHAN Wei; QIU Wan-hua

    2006-01-01

    Performance evaluation of facilities management plays a key role in the facilities management process. This paper proposes an optimized multicriteria decision making model to evaluate the performance of facilities management in schools in Hong Kong. In this model, entropy weights acted as weight coefficients for evaluated criteria in order to avoid uncertainty and randomicity of subjective judgments. Besides, the TOPSIS method was incorporated in this model. Then this model was employed to evaluate the performance of facilities management in classrooms, offices and laboratories and satisfying results were obtained. Moreover, findings indicated that one of the schools could be rehabilitated rather than removed.

  15. Aspect Oriented Decision Making Model for Byzantine Agreement

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Ramachandran

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Problem statement: The main aim of this research study is to develop an enhanced strategy for decision making whether to commit or rollback a request to a Web service in the presence of Byzantine faults using aspects. The proposed study extends the Lamport’s algorithm for Byzantine agreement to have an effective decision while handling the service request. When the service is initiated based on the request, its execution behaviour is being monitored before, after and at the time of execution and being handled with aspect concerns to provide the corresponding responses as input to the Lamport’s Byzantine agreement algorithm. The decision on the client requests is based on the outcome of the aspect advices before, after and around the execution of the services. Approach: This approach identifies the inception of the process which starts to exhibit abnormal behaviour before, after or during the execution of the service and instigates that helps in resolving the faulty service and identifies the root cause of the problem to rectify it. Aspect oriented advices do not require any external invocation as it executes with the service and hence no additional overhead involved in processing the service request. Results: In the existing methodology only the around advice decision is considered for reaching an agreement in the presence of Byzantine faults. An enhancement in the decision making process is proposed by including the state of the services: before, after and around advices of the aspects. Conclusion: The obtained experimental results based on the proposed methodology depict that the performance measure, Round Trip Time is slightly increased when compared with the existing Lamport’s algorithm for Byzantine Agreement and this performance overhead is not a major concern as the proposed approach produces an enhanced decision by considering aspect concerns and also determines the origin of the fault. The change in execution behaviour of Byzantine

  16. Model of human collective decision-making in complex environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carbone, Giuseppe; Giannoccaro, Ilaria

    2015-12-01

    A continuous-time Markov process is proposed to analyze how a group of humans solves a complex task, consisting in the search of the optimal set of decisions on a fitness landscape. Individuals change their opinions driven by two different forces: (i) the self-interest, which pushes them to increase their own fitness values, and (ii) the social interactions, which push individuals to reduce the diversity of their opinions in order to reach consensus. Results show that the performance of the group is strongly affected by the strength of social interactions and by the level of knowledge of the individuals. Increasing the strength of social interactions improves the performance of the team. However, too strong social interactions slow down the search of the optimal solution and worsen the performance of the group. In particular, we find that the threshold value of the social interaction strength, which leads to the emergence of a superior intelligence of the group, is just the critical threshold at which the consensus among the members sets in. We also prove that a moderate level of knowledge is already enough to guarantee high performance of the group in making decisions.

  17. How to Make Our Models More Physically-based

    Science.gov (United States)

    Savenije, H. H. G.

    2016-12-01

    Models that are generally called "physically-based" unfortunately only have a partial view of the physical processes at play in hydrology. Although the coupled partial differential equations in these models reflect the water balance equations and the flow descriptors at laboratory scale, they miss essential characteristics of what determines the functioning of catchments. The most important active agent in catchments is the ecosystem (and sometimes people). What these agents do is manipulate the substrate in a way that it supports the essential functions of survival and productivity: infiltration of water, retention of moisture, mobilization and retention of nutrients, and drainage. Ecosystems do this in the most efficient way, in agreement with the landscape, and in response to climatic drivers. In brief, our hydrological system is alive and has a strong capacity to adjust to prevailing and changing circumstances. Although most physically based models take Newtonian theory at heart, as best they can, what they generally miss is Darwinian thinking on how an ecosystem evolves and adjusts its environment to maintain crucial hydrological functions. If this active agent is not reflected in our models, then they miss essential physics. Through a Darwinian approach, we can determine the root zone storage capacity of ecosystems, as a crucial component of hydrological models, determining the partitioning of fluxes and the conservation of moisture to bridge periods of drought. Another crucial element of physical systems is the evolution of drainage patterns, both on and below the surface. On the surface, such patterns facilitate infiltration or surface drainage with minimal erosion; in the unsaturated zone, patterns facilitate efficient replenishment of moisture deficits and preferential drainage when there is excess moisture; in the groundwater, patterns facilitate the efficient and gradual drainage of groundwater, resulting in linear reservoir recession. Models that do

  18. Intelligent decision-making models for production and retail operations

    CERN Document Server

    Guo, Zhaoxia

    2016-01-01

    This book provides an overview of intelligent decision-making techniques and discusses their application in production and retail operations. Manufacturing and retail enterprises have stringent standards for using advanced and reliable techniques to improve decision-making processes, since these processes have significant effects on the performance of relevant operations and the entire supply chain. In recent years, researchers have been increasingly focusing attention on using intelligent techniques to solve various decision-making problems. The opening chapters provide an introduction to several commonly used intelligent techniques, such as genetic algorithm, harmony search, neural network and extreme learning machine. The book then explores the use of these techniques for handling various production and retail decision-making problems, such as production planning and scheduling, assembly line balancing, and sales forecasting.

  19. Making refractive error services sustainable: the International Eye Foundation model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Victoria M Sheffield

    2007-09-01

    Full Text Available The International Eye Foundation (IEF believes that the most effective strategy for making spectacles affordable and accessible is to integrate refractive error services into ophthalmic services and to run the refractive error service as a business – thereby making it sustainable. An optical service should be able to deal with high volumes of patients and generate enough revenue – not just to cover its own costs, but also to contribute to ophthalmic clinical services.

  20. Model Driven Integrated Decision-Making in Manufacturing Enterprises

    OpenAIRE

    Weston, Richard H.

    2012-01-01

    Decision making requirements and solutions are observed in four world class Manufacturing Enterprises (MEs). Observations made focus on deployed methods of complexity handling that facilitate multi-purpose, distributed decision making. Also observed are examples of partially deficient “integrated decision making” which stem from lack of understanding about how ME structural relations enable and/or constrain reachable ME behaviours. To begin to address this deficiency the paper outlines the us...

  1. Revisiting Runoff Model Calibration: Airborne Snow Observatory Results Allow Improved Modeling Results

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGurk, B. J.; Painter, T. H.

    2014-12-01

    Deterministic snow accumulation and ablation simulation models are widely used by runoff managers throughout the world to predict runoff quantities and timing. Model fitting is typically based on matching modeled runoff volumes and timing with observed flow time series at a few points in the basin. In recent decades, sparse networks of point measurements of the mountain snowpacks have been available to compare with modeled snowpack, but the comparability of results from a snow sensor or course to model polygons of 5 to 50 sq. km is suspect. However, snowpack extent, depth, and derived snow water equivalent have been produced by the NASA/JPL Airborne Snow Observatory (ASO) mission for spring of 20013 and 2014 in the Tuolumne River basin above Hetch Hetchy Reservoir. These high-resolution snowpack data have exposed the weakness in a model calibration based on runoff alone. The U.S. Geological Survey's Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) calibration that was based on 30-years of inflow to Hetch Hetchy produces reasonable inflow results, but modeled spatial snowpack location and water quantity diverged significantly from the weekly measurements made by ASO during the two ablation seasons. The reason is that the PRMS model has many flow paths, storages, and water transfer equations, and a calibrated outflow time series can be right for many wrong reasons. The addition of a detailed knowledge of snow extent and water content constrains the model so that it is a better representation of the actual watershed hydrology. The mechanics of recalibrating PRMS to the ASO measurements will be described, and comparisons in observed versus modeled flow for both a small subbasin and the entire Hetch Hetchy basin will be shown. The recalibrated model provided a bitter fit to the snowmelt recession, a key factor for water managers as they balance declining inflows with demand for power generation and ecosystem releases during the final months of snow melt runoff.

  2. What makes age diverse teams effective? Results from a six-year research program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wegge, J; Jungmann, F; Liebermann, S; Shemla, M; Ries, B C; Diestel, S; Schmidt, K-H

    2012-01-01

    Based on a new model of productivity in age diverse tams, findings from a six-year research program are reported in which data from more than 745 natural teams with 8,848 employees in three different fields (car production, administrative work, financial services) were collected. Moreover, central assumptions of this model were tested with a representative survey of the German workforce (N = 2,000). Results support both significant advantages and disadvantages for age-mixed teams. Based on the findings, the following preconditions for the effectiveness of age diverse teams are identified: high task complexity, low salience and high appreciation of age diversity, a positive team climate, low age-discrimination, ergonomic design of work places, and the use of age differentiated leadership. Based on these insights, we developed a new training for supervisors, which addresses the aforementioned aspects and seeks to improve team performance and health of team members. It was found that the training reduces age stereotypes, team conflicts and enhances innovation. Thus, we can conclude that effective interventions for a successful integration of elderly employees in work groups are available and that combinations of measures that address ergonomic design issues, team composition and leadership are to be strongly recommended for practice.

  3. Developing model-making and model-breaking skills using direct measurement video-based activities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthew Vonk

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available This study focuses on student development of two important laboratory skills in the context of introductory college-level physics. The first skill, which we call model making, is the ability to analyze a phenomenon in a way that produces a quantitative multimodal model. The second skill, which we call model breaking, is the ability to critically evaluate if the behavior of a system is consistent with a given model. This study involved 116 introductory physics students in four different sections, each taught by a different instructor. All of the students within a given class section participated in the same instruction (including labs with the exception of five activities performed throughout the semester. For those five activities, each class section was split into two groups; one group was scaffolded to focus on model-making skills and the other was scaffolded to focus on model-breaking skills. Both conditions involved direct measurement videos. In some cases, students could vary important experimental parameters within the video like mass, frequency, and tension. Data collected at the end of the semester indicate that students in the model-making treatment group significantly outperformed the other group on the model-making skill despite the fact that both groups shared a common physical lab experience. Likewise, the model-breaking treatment group significantly outperformed the other group on the model-breaking skill. This is important because it shows that direct measurement video-based instruction can help students acquire science-process skills, which are critical for scientists, and which are a key part of current science education approaches such as the Next Generation Science Standards and the Advanced Placement Physics 1 course.

  4. Modeling Malaysia's Energy System: Some Preliminary Results

    OpenAIRE

    Ahmad M. Yusof

    2011-01-01

    Problem statement: The current dynamic and fragile world energy environment necessitates the development of new energy model that solely caters to analyze Malaysias energy scenarios. Approach: The model is a network flow model that traces the flow of energy carriers from its sources (import and mining) through some conversion and transformation processes for the production of energy products to final destinations (energy demand sectors). The integration to the economic sectors is done exogene...

  5. Engineering Glass Passivation Layers -Model Results

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Skorski, Daniel C.; Ryan, Joseph V.; Strachan, Denis M.; Lepry, William C.

    2011-08-08

    The immobilization of radioactive waste into glass waste forms is a baseline process of nuclear waste management not only in the United States, but worldwide. The rate of radionuclide release from these glasses is a critical measure of the quality of the waste form. Over long-term tests and using extrapolations of ancient analogues, it has been shown that well designed glasses exhibit a dissolution rate that quickly decreases to a slow residual rate for the lifetime of the glass. The mechanistic cause of this decreased corrosion rate is a subject of debate, with one of the major theories suggesting that the decrease is caused by the formation of corrosion products in such a manner as to present a diffusion barrier on the surface of the glass. Although there is much evidence of this type of mechanism, there has been no attempt to engineer the effect to maximize the passivating qualities of the corrosion products. This study represents the first attempt to engineer the creation of passivating phases on the surface of glasses. Our approach utilizes interactions between the dissolving glass and elements from the disposal environment to create impermeable capping layers. By drawing from other corrosion studies in areas where passivation layers have been successfully engineered to protect the bulk material, we present here a report on mineral phases that are likely have a morphological tendency to encrust the surface of the glass. Our modeling has focused on using the AFCI glass system in a carbonate, sulfate, and phosphate rich environment. We evaluate the minerals predicted to form to determine the likelihood of the formation of a protective layer on the surface of the glass. We have also modeled individual ions in solutions vs. pH and the addition of aluminum and silicon. These results allow us to understand the pH and ion concentration dependence of mineral formation. We have determined that iron minerals are likely to form a complete incrustation layer and we plan

  6. Does training general practitioners result in more shared decision making during consultations?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sanders, A.R.J.; Bensing, J.M.; Essed, M.A.L.U.; Magnée, T.; Wit, N.J. de; Verhaak, P.F.M.

    2016-01-01

    Objective: We conducted a clustered randomised controlled trial to study the effects of shared decision making (SDM) on patient recovery. This study aims to determine whether GPs trained in SDM and reinforcing patients’ treatment expectations showed more trained behaviour during their consultations

  7. A Bayesian Reformulation of the Extended Drift-Diffusion Model in Perceptual Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fard, Pouyan R.; Park, Hame; Warkentin, Andrej; Kiebel, Stefan J.; Bitzer, Sebastian

    2017-01-01

    Perceptual decision making can be described as a process of accumulating evidence to a bound which has been formalized within drift-diffusion models (DDMs). Recently, an equivalent Bayesian model has been proposed. In contrast to standard DDMs, this Bayesian model directly links information in the stimulus to the decision process. Here, we extend this Bayesian model further and allow inter-trial variability of two parameters following the extended version of the DDM. We derive parameter distributions for the Bayesian model and show that they lead to predictions that are qualitatively equivalent to those made by the extended drift-diffusion model (eDDM). Further, we demonstrate the usefulness of the extended Bayesian model (eBM) for the analysis of concrete behavioral data. Specifically, using Bayesian model selection, we find evidence that including additional inter-trial parameter variability provides for a better model, when the model is constrained by trial-wise stimulus features. This result is remarkable because it was derived using just 200 trials per condition, which is typically thought to be insufficient for identifying variability parameters in DDMs. In sum, we present a Bayesian analysis, which provides for a novel and promising analysis of perceptual decision making experiments. PMID:28553219

  8. A Bayesian Reformulation of the Extended Drift-Diffusion Model in Perceptual Decision Making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pouyan R. Fard

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Perceptual decision making can be described as a process of accumulating evidence to a bound which has been formalized within drift-diffusion models (DDMs. Recently, an equivalent Bayesian model has been proposed. In contrast to standard DDMs, this Bayesian model directly links information in the stimulus to the decision process. Here, we extend this Bayesian model further and allow inter-trial variability of two parameters following the extended version of the DDM. We derive parameter distributions for the Bayesian model and show that they lead to predictions that are qualitatively equivalent to those made by the extended drift-diffusion model (eDDM. Further, we demonstrate the usefulness of the extended Bayesian model (eBM for the analysis of concrete behavioral data. Specifically, using Bayesian model selection, we find evidence that including additional inter-trial parameter variability provides for a better model, when the model is constrained by trial-wise stimulus features. This result is remarkable because it was derived using just 200 trials per condition, which is typically thought to be insufficient for identifying variability parameters in DDMs. In sum, we present a Bayesian analysis, which provides for a novel and promising analysis of perceptual decision making experiments.

  9. Decision-making in Colorectal Cancer Tumor Board meetings: results of a prospective observational assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shah, S; Arora, S; Atkin, G; Glynne-Jones, R; Mathur, P; Darzi, A; Sevdalis, N

    2014-10-01

    The management of colorectal cancer increasingly involves multidisciplinary tumor boards. In cases where these occur, the quality can be variable. Despite this, there are no uniform measures to evaluate them. The aim of this study was to evaluate the performance of colorectal cancer tumor boards, via real-time prospective observation. An observational tool, termed Colorectal Multidisciplinary Team Metric for Observation of Decision-Making (cMDT-MODe), was used to assess decision-making in 267 cases. The presentation of case history, radiological and pathological information, as well as contributions to decision making of the various team members were analyzed using descriptive statistics and t-tests. Interobserver agreement was assessed using intraclasscorrelation coefficients. Tumor board meetings lasted 76 min, were attended by approximately 16 specialists each, and reviewed an average of 24 cancer cases (3 min per case review). Regarding the quality of presented information to the team, case history information was rated the highest (mean 4.57), followed by radiological information (mean 4.22) and pathological information (mean 3.81). Regarding each team-member's contribution to discussion, surgeons were scored the highest (mean 4.81), followed by radiologists (mean 4.41) and meeting chairs (mean 4.13)--all team members except the board coordinators were scored highly. Overall scoring reliability was good (0.79). The cMDT-MODe instrument can be reliably used to prospectively assess decision making in the multidisciplinary management of colorectal patients. By systematically quantifying the quality of a colorectal cancer tumor board, we can identify areas for improving practice so as to optimize decision making for cancer care.

  10. Mass casualty modelling: a spatial tool to support triage decision making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hameed Syed M

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background During a mass casualty incident, evacuation of patients to the appropriate health care facility is critical to survival. Despite this, no existing system provides the evidence required to make informed evacuation decisions from the scene of the incident. To mitigate this absence and enable more informed decision making, a web based spatial decision support system (SDSS was developed. This system supports decision making by providing data regarding hospital proximity, capacity, and treatment specializations to decision makers at the scene of the incident. Methods This web-based SDSS utilizes pre-calculated driving times to estimate the actual driving time to each hospital within the inclusive trauma system of the large metropolitan region within which it is situated. In calculating and displaying its results, the model incorporates both road network and hospital data (e.g. capacity, treatment specialties, etc., and produces results in a matter of seconds, as is required in a MCI situation. In addition, its application interface allows the user to map the incident location and assists in the execution of triage decisions. Results Upon running the model, driving time from the MCI location to the surrounding hospitals is quickly displayed alongside information regarding hospital capacity and capability, thereby assisting the user in the decision-making process. Conclusions The use of SDSS in the prioritization of MCI evacuation decision making is potentially valuable in cases of mass casualty. The key to this model is the utilization of pre-calculated driving times from each hospital in the region to each point on the road network. The incorporation of real-time traffic and hospital capacity data would further improve this model.

  11. Application of Two Decision Making Methods in Analyzing Experts’ Ranking of Change Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maryam Nakhoda

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Using consensus method and analyzing the ranked viewpoints, this paper aimed to select an appropriate change model to the Iranian academic libraries. Therefore, these libraries can apply the mentioned model in order to overcome challenges resulted of change and improve change management. The research questionnaire including three selected change models from literature with criteria for ranking them, submitted to a group of experts in Library and Information Science and Management. The analysis of experts’ viewpoints and choosing the preferred option were done by using methods in Multiple Attribute Decision Making (MADM. The findings suggested the selection of “Information Services Framework for Managing Change” by Penfold

  12. Perceptual decision making: Drift-diffusion model is equivalent to a Bayesian model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sebastian eBitzer

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Behavioural data obtained with perceptual decision making experiments are typically analysed with the drift-diffusion model. This parsimonious model accumulates noisy pieces of evidence towards a decision bound to explain the accuracy and reaction times of subjects. Recently, Bayesian models have been proposed to explain how the brain extracts information from noisy input as typically presented in perceptual decision making tasks. It has long been known that the drift-diffusion model is tightly linked with such functional Bayesian models but the precise relationship of the two mechanisms was never made explicit. Using a Bayesian model, we derived the equations which relate parameter values between these models. In practice we show that this equivalence is useful when fitting multi-subject data. We further show that the Bayesian model suggests different decision variables which all predict equal responses and discuss how these may be discriminated based on neural correlates of accumulated evidence. In addition, we discuss extensions to the Bayesian model which would be difficult to derive for the drift-diffusion model. We suggest that these and other extensions may be highly useful for deriving new experiments which test novel hypotheses.

  13. Video Sense-Making with Scale-Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Buur, Jacob; Caglio, Agnese

    2015-01-01

    Video recording has proven immensely successful for acquiring field data for design work: data about technology in use and about future contexts for innovative products and services. While new, small camera types make recording almost unproblematic, the task of making sense of video for design...... is still a challenge. This paper discusses a method of re-enacting the actions observed on video, with objects in a scale environment. The case we work with concerns the activities of forklift truck drivers, and in particular, how they build skills of manoeuvring trucks in a ‘social environment’ of many...

  14. Quantitative magnetospheric models: results and perspectives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuznetsova, M.; Hesse, M.; Gombosi, T.; Csem Team

    Global magnetospheric models are indispensable tool that allow multi-point measurements to be put into global context Significant progress is achieved in global MHD modeling of magnetosphere structure and dynamics Medium resolution simulations confirm general topological pictures suggested by Dungey State of the art global models with adaptive grids allow performing simulations with highly resolved magnetopause and magnetotail current sheet Advanced high-resolution models are capable to reproduced transient phenomena such as FTEs associated with formation of flux ropes or plasma bubbles embedded into magnetopause and demonstrate generation of vortices at magnetospheric flanks On the other hand there is still controversy about the global state of the magnetosphere predicted by MHD models to the point of questioning the length of the magnetotail and the location of the reconnection sites within it For example for steady southwards IMF driving condition resistive MHD simulations produce steady configuration with almost stationary near-earth neutral line While there are plenty of observational evidences of periodic loading unloading cycle during long periods of southward IMF Successes and challenges in global modeling of magnetispheric dynamics will be addessed One of the major challenges is to quantify the interaction between large-scale global magnetospheric dynamics and microphysical processes in diffusion regions near reconnection sites Possible solutions to controversies will be discussed

  15. Does training general practitioners result in more shared decision making during consultations?

    OpenAIRE

    Sanders, A.R.J.; Bensing, J.M.; Essed, M.A.L.U.; Magnée, T.; de Wit, N.J.; Verhaak, P.F.M.

    2016-01-01

    Objective: We conducted a clustered randomised controlled trial to study the effects of shared decision making (SDM) on patient recovery. This study aims to determine whether GPs trained in SDM and reinforcing patients’ treatment expectations showed more trained behaviour during their consultations than untrained GPs. Methods: We compared 86 consultations conducted by 23 trained GPs with 89 consultations completed by 19 untrained GPs. The primary outcomes were SDM, as measured by the OPTION s...

  16. Computational EEG modelling of decision making under ambiguity reveals spatio-temporal dynamics of outcome evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jollans, Lee; Whelan, Robert; Venables, Louise; Turnbull, Oliver H; Cella, Matteo; Dymond, Simon

    2017-03-15

    Complex human cognition, such as decision-making under ambiguity, is reflected in dynamic spatio-temporal activity in the brain. Here, we combined event-related potentials with computational modelling of the time course of decision-making and outcome evaluation during the Iowa Gambling Task. Measures of choice probability generated using the Prospect Valence Learning Delta (PVL-Delta) model, in addition to objective trial outcomes (outcome magnitude and valence), were applied as regressors in a general linear model of the EEG signal. The resulting three-dimensional spatio-temporal characterization of task-related neural dynamics demonstrated that outcome valence, outcome magnitude, and PVL-Delta choice probability were expressed in distinctly separate event related potentials. Our findings showed that the P3 component was associated with an experience-based measure of outcome expectancy. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  17. A classification of the multiple criteria decision making models

    OpenAIRE

    Guerras Martín, Luis Angel

    1987-01-01

    In this work we have tried to present a classification of multiobjective techniques based in the relationship between the main subJects of decision process: analyst and decision maker. These relation, in terms of information flows, have important consequences for decision making processes in business organizations.

  18. Modeling Hospital Discharge and Placement Decision Making: Whither the Elderly.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, William F.; Pelham, Anabel O.

    This paper examines the hospital discharge decision making process for elderly patients, based on observations of the operations of a long term care agency, the California Multipurpose Senior Services Project. The analysis is divided into four components: actors, factors, processes, and strategy critique. The first section discusses the major…

  19. Make Your Own Working Models of Heart Valves!

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hudson, Margaret L.

    2014-01-01

    Heart valves play a vital role in efficient circulation of the blood, and the details of their physical structure are related crucially to their function. However, it can be challenging for the learner to make the mental connection between anatomical structures of valves and the changing pressure gradients that the valves experience and come to an…

  20. Decision making model and behavior of Iranian top managers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aliakbar Farhangi

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Aesthetics relates to felt meaning generated from sensory perceptions, and involves subjective,tacit knowledge rooted in feeling and emotion. We believe the aesthetics of management isimportant, but little understood, aspect of organizational life. We propose that followers use theiraesthetic senses in making these assessments.In this article we try to discover the role of aesthetic in management and then try to find out thestyle of about 130 industrial and governmental top managers in Iran using some technique such asquestionnaire and interview. The personality and character of them will be recognized by some testsuch as KAI, MBIT, CPS, Cooper-Smith self-esteem, management style, machiavellism, internaland external control, behavior, attitude and their methods in problem solving and decision making,and the effect of this ability in productivity of their organization.At the end of this study we find out that they are strongly thinking, judging and intuition but half ofthem are extraversion. their personality & character, attitude, skills, professions, perception are soimportant for management and in making a decision more than Two-thirds:-If they make a decision never change it.-Use their aesthetic to judge others and events or found out the right way if it is rational and there isenough evidence.-Uses his experience and knowledge for decision but asks others to suggest a solution or solve theproblem.

  1. Aiding human reliance decision making using computational models of trust

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Maanen, P.P. van; Klos, T.; Dongen, C.J. van

    2007-01-01

    This paper involves a human-agent system in which there is an operator charged with a pattern recognition task, using an automated decision aid. The objective is to make this human-agent system operate as effectively as possible. Effectiveness is gained by an increase of appropriate reliance on the

  2. Hybrid multiple attribute decision making model based on entropy

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Wang Wei; Cui Mingming

    2007-01-01

    From the viewpoint of entropy, this paper investigates a hybrid multiple attribute decision making problem with precision number, interval number and fuzzy number. It defines a new concept: project entropy and the decision is taken according to the values. The validity and scientific nature of the given is proven.

  3. Architectural considerations for modeling cognitive-emotional decision making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lotens, W.A.; Cain, B.

    2013-01-01

    There are numerous conceptual similarities between affective and rational decision making functions despite the differences between the emotional and cognitive systems. Aspects of emotion may be considered as a concurrent stream of information processing that is coupled with explicit, rational infor

  4. Modeling Results For the ITER Cryogenic Fore Pump. Final Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pfotenhauer, John M. [University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI (United States); Zhang, Dongsheng [University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI (United States)

    2014-03-31

    A numerical model characterizing the operation of a cryogenic fore-pump (CFP) for ITER has been developed at the University of Wisconsin – Madison during the period from March 15, 2011 through June 30, 2014. The purpose of the ITER-CFP is to separate hydrogen isotopes from helium gas, both making up the exhaust components from the ITER reactor. The model explicitly determines the amount of hydrogen that is captured by the supercritical-helium-cooled pump as a function of the inlet temperature of the supercritical helium, its flow rate, and the inlet conditions of the hydrogen gas flow. Furthermore the model computes the location and amount of hydrogen captured in the pump as a function of time. Throughout the model’s development, and as a calibration check for its results, it has been extensively compared with the measurements of a CFP prototype tested at Oak Ridge National Lab. The results of the model demonstrate that the quantity of captured hydrogen is very sensitive to the inlet temperature of the helium coolant on the outside of the cryopump. Furthermore, the model can be utilized to refine those tests, and suggests methods that could be incorporated in the testing to enhance the usefulness of the measured data.

  5. Parents' decision-making about the human papillomavirus vaccine for their daughters: I. Quantitative results.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krawczyk, Andrea; Knäuper, Bärbel; Gilca, Vladimir; Dubé, Eve; Perez, Samara; Joyal-Desmarais, Keven; Rosberger, Zeev

    2015-01-01

    Vaccination against the human papillomavirus (HPV) is an effective primary prevention measure for HPV-related diseases. For children and young adolescents, the uptake of the vaccine is contingent on parental consent. This study sought to identify key differences between parents who obtain (acceptors) and parents who refuse (non-acceptors) the HPV vaccine for their daughters. In the context of a free, universal, school-based HPV vaccination program in Québec, 774 parents of 9-10 year-old girls completed and returned a questionnaire by mail. The questionnaire was based on the theoretical constructs of the Health Belief Model (HBM), along with constructs from other theoretical frameworks. Of the 774 parents, 88.2% reported their daughter having received the HPV vaccine. Perceived susceptibility of daughters to HPV infection, perceived benefits of the vaccine, perceived barriers (including safety of the vaccine), and cues to action significantly distinguished between parents whose daughters had received the HPV vaccine and those whose daughters had not. Other significant factors associated with daughter vaccine uptake were parents' general vaccination attitudes, anticipated regret, adherence to other routinely recommended vaccines, social norms, and positive media influence. The results of this study identify a number of important correlates related to parents' decisions to accept or refuse the HPV vaccine uptake for their daughters. Future work may benefit from targeting such factors and incorporating other health behavior theories in the design of effective HPV vaccine uptake interventions.

  6. Learning to Make Predictions In Partially Observable Environments Without a Generative Model

    OpenAIRE

    Talvitie, Erik; Singh, Satinder

    2014-01-01

    When faced with the problem of learning a model of a high-dimensional environment, a common approach is to limit the model to make only a restricted set of predictions, thereby simplifying the learning problem. These partial models may be directly useful for making decisions or may be combined together to form a more complete, structured model. However, in partially observable (non-Markov) environments, standard model-learning methods learn generative models, i.e. models that provide a probab...

  7. Robust Decision-making Applied to Model Selection

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hemez, Francois M. [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2012-08-06

    The scientific and engineering communities are relying more and more on numerical models to simulate ever-increasingly complex phenomena. Selecting a model, from among a family of models that meets the simulation requirements, presents a challenge to modern-day analysts. To address this concern, a framework is adopted anchored in info-gap decision theory. The framework proposes to select models by examining the trade-offs between prediction accuracy and sensitivity to epistemic uncertainty. The framework is demonstrated on two structural engineering applications by asking the following question: Which model, of several numerical models, approximates the behavior of a structure when parameters that define each of those models are unknown? One observation is that models that are nominally more accurate are not necessarily more robust, and their accuracy can deteriorate greatly depending upon the assumptions made. It is posited that, as reliance on numerical models increases, establishing robustness will become as important as demonstrating accuracy.

  8. Computer models used to support cleanup decision-making at hazardous and radioactive waste sites

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moskowitz, P.D.; Pardi, R.; DePhillips, M.P.; Meinhold, A.F.

    1992-07-01

    Massive efforts are underway to cleanup hazardous and radioactive waste sites located throughout the US To help determine cleanup priorities, computer models are being used to characterize the source, transport, fate and effects of hazardous chemicals and radioactive materials found at these sites. Although, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the US Department of Energy (DOE), and the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) have provided preliminary guidance to promote the use of computer models for remediation purposes, no Agency has produced directed guidance on models that must be used in these efforts. To identify what models are actually being used to support decision-making at hazardous and radioactive waste sites, a project jointly funded by EPA, DOE and NRC was initiated. The purpose of this project was to: (1) Identify models being used for hazardous and radioactive waste site assessment purposes; and (2) describe and classify these models. This report presents the results of this study.

  9. Computer models used to support cleanup decision-making at hazardous and radioactive waste sites

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moskowitz, P.D.; Pardi, R.; DePhillips, M.P.; Meinhold, A.F.

    1992-07-01

    Massive efforts are underway to cleanup hazardous and radioactive waste sites located throughout the US To help determine cleanup priorities, computer models are being used to characterize the source, transport, fate and effects of hazardous chemicals and radioactive materials found at these sites. Although, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the US Department of Energy (DOE), and the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) have provided preliminary guidance to promote the use of computer models for remediation purposes, no Agency has produced directed guidance on models that must be used in these efforts. To identify what models are actually being used to support decision-making at hazardous and radioactive waste sites, a project jointly funded by EPA, DOE and NRC was initiated. The purpose of this project was to: (1) Identify models being used for hazardous and radioactive waste site assessment purposes; and (2) describe and classify these models. This report presents the results of this study.

  10. Models in animal collective decision-making: information uncertainty and conflicting preferences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conradt, Larissa

    2012-04-01

    Collective decision-making plays a central part in the lives of many social animals. Two important factors that influence collective decision-making are information uncertainty and conflicting preferences. Here, I bring together, and briefly review, basic models relating to animal collective decision-making in situations with information uncertainty and in situations with conflicting preferences between group members. The intention is to give an overview about the different types of modelling approaches that have been employed and the questions that they address and raise. Despite the use of a wide range of different modelling techniques, results show a coherent picture, as follows. Relatively simple cognitive mechanisms can lead to effective information pooling. Groups often face a trade-off between decision accuracy and speed, but appropriate fine-tuning of behavioural parameters could achieve high accuracy while maintaining reasonable speed. The right balance of interdependence and independence between animals is crucial for maintaining group cohesion and achieving high decision accuracy. In conflict situations, a high degree of decision-sharing between individuals is predicted, as well as transient leadership and leadership according to needs and physiological status. Animals often face crucial trade-offs between maintaining group cohesion and influencing the decision outcome in their own favour. Despite the great progress that has been made, there remains one big gap in our knowledge: how do animals make collective decisions in situations when information uncertainty and conflict of interest operate simultaneously?

  11. A cortical network model of cognitive and emotional influences in human decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nazir, Azadeh Hassannejad; Liljenström, Hans

    2015-10-01

    Decision making (DM)(2) is a complex process that appears to involve several brain structures. In particular, amygdala, orbitofrontal cortex (OFC) and lateral prefrontal cortex (LPFC) seem to be essential in human decision making, where both emotional and cognitive aspects are taken into account. In this paper, we present a computational network model representing the neural information processing of DM, from perception to behavior. We model the population dynamics of the three neural structures (amygdala, OFC and LPFC), as well as their interaction. In our model, the neurodynamic activity of amygdala and OFC represents the neural correlates of secondary emotion, while the activity of certain neural populations in OFC alone represents the outcome expectancy of different options. The cognitive/rational aspect of DM is associated with LPFC. Our model is intended to give insights on the emotional and cognitive processes involved in DM under various internal and external contexts. Different options for actions are represented by the oscillatory activity of cell assemblies, which may change due to experience and learning. Knowledge and experience of the outcome of our decisions and actions can eventually result in changes in our neural structures, attitudes and behaviors. Simulation results may have implications for how we make decisions for our individual actions, as well as for societal choices, where we take examples from transport and its impact on CO2 emissions and climate change.

  12. Modeling of Glass Making Processes for Improved Efficiency

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Thomas P. Seward III

    2003-03-31

    The overall goal of this project was to develop a high-temperature melt properties database with sufficient reliability to allow mathematical modeling of glass melting and forming processes for improved product quality, improved efficiency and lessened environmental impact. It was initiated by the United States glass industry through the NSF Industry/University Center for Glass Research (CGR) at Alfred University [1]. Because of their important commercial value, six different types/families of glass were studied: container, float, fiberglass (E- and wool-types), low-expansion borosilicate, and color TV panel glasses. CGR member companies supplied production-quality glass from all six families upon which we measured, as a function of temperature in the molten state, density, surface tension, viscosity, electrical resistivity, infrared transmittance (to determine high temperature radiative conductivity), non-Newtonian flow behavior, and oxygen partial pres sure. With CGR cost sharing, we also studied gas solubility and diffusivity in each of these glasses. Because knowledge of the compositional dependencies of melt viscosity and electrical resistivity are extremely important for glass melting furnace design and operation, these properties were studied more fully. Composition variations were statistically designed for all six types/families of glass. About 140 different glasses were then melted on a laboratory scale and their viscosity and electrical resistivity measured as a function of temperature. The measurements were completed in February 2003 and are reported on here. The next steps will be (1) to statistically analyze the compositional dependencies of viscosity and electrical resistivity and develop composition-property response surfaces, (2) submit all the data to CGR member companies to evaluate the usefulness in their models, and (3) publish the results in technical journals and most likely in book form.

  13. Understanding Elementary Astronomy by Making Drawing-Based Models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Joolingen, W. R.; Aukes, Annika V A; Gijlers, H.; Bollen, L.

    2015-01-01

    Modeling is an important approach in the teaching and learning of science. In this study, we attempt to bring modeling within the reach of young children by creating the SimSketch modeling system, which is based on freehand drawings that can be turned into simulations. This system was used by 247 ch

  14. Making It Visual: Creating a Model of the Atom

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pringle, Rose M.

    2004-01-01

    This article describes a lesson in which students construct Bohr's planetary model of the atom. Niels Bohr's atomic model provides a framework for discussing with middle and high school students the historical development of our understanding of the structure of the atom. The model constructed in this activity will enable students to visualize the…

  15. Understanding Elementary Astronomy by Making Drawing-Based Models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Joolingen, W. R.; Aukes, Annika V A; Gijlers, H.; Bollen, L.

    2015-01-01

    Modeling is an important approach in the teaching and learning of science. In this study, we attempt to bring modeling within the reach of young children by creating the SimSketch modeling system, which is based on freehand drawings that can be turned into simulations. This system was used by 247 ch

  16. Development of a fuzzy optimization model, supporting global warming decision-making

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Leimbach, M. [Potsdam Inst. for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam (Germany)

    1996-03-01

    An increasing number of models have been developed to support global warming response policies. The model constructors are facing a lot of uncertainties which limit the evidence of these models. The support of climate policy decision-making is only possible in a semi-quantitative way, as presented by a Fuzzy model. The model design is based on an optimization approach, integrated in a bounded risk decision-making framework. Given some regional emission-related and impact-related restrictions, optimal emission paths can be calculated. The focus is not only on carbon dioxide but on other greenhouse gases too. In the paper, the components of the model will be described. Cost coefficients, emission boundaries and impact boundaries are represented as Fuzzy parameters. The Fuzzy model will be transformed into a computational one by using an approach of Rommelfanger. In the second part, some problems of applying the model to computations will be discussed. This includes discussions on the data situation and the presentation, as well as interpretation of results of sensitivity analyses. The advantage of the Fuzzy approach is that the requirements regarding data precision are not so strong. Hence, the effort for data acquisition can be reduced and computations can be started earlier. 9 figs., 3 tabs., 17 refs., 1 appendix

  17. Teachers making sense of result-oriented teams : A cognitive anthropological approach to educational change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wierenga, Sijko J.; Kamsteeg, Frans H.; Simons, P. Robert Jan; Veenswijk, Marcel

    Studies on educational change efforts abound but generally limit themselves to post hoc explanations of failure and success. Such explanations are rarely turned into attempts at providing models for predicting change outcomes. The present study tries to develop such a model based on the teachers’

  18. Modeling collective & intelligent decision making of multi-cellular populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shin, Yong-Jun; Mahrou, Bahareh

    2014-01-01

    In the presence of unpredictable disturbances and uncertainties, cells intelligently achieve their goals by sharing information via cell-cell communication and making collective decisions, which are more reliable compared to individual decisions. Inspired by adaptive sensor network algorithms studied in communication engineering, we propose that a multi-cellular adaptive network can convert unreliable decisions by individual cells into a more reliable cell-population decision. It is demonstrated using the effector T helper (a type of immune cell) population, which plays a critical role in initiating immune reactions in response to invading foreign agents (e.g., viruses, bacteria, etc.). While each individual cell follows a simple adaptation rule, it is the combined coordination among multiple cells that leads to the manifestation of "self-organizing" decision making via cell-cell communication.

  19. Formal Models of Dilemmas in Social Decision-Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    1974-12-01

    iiapj ■ I" ’""i Unclassified i ■ > v. u ). Ant5-Group Decision Commons Dilemma Competition Cooperation Social Decision-making (PAGE...proposed a simple algebraic structure for the commons dilemma as expounded by Hardin (1960). (This dilemma is based on a somewhat minor point made by...the total wealth has bMlk reduced by 100 lbs., as he., -he wealth of each of the other individuals. This commons dilemma , gain to self with loss

  20. Projective Market Model Approach to AHP Decision-Making

    CERN Document Server

    Szczypinska, Anna

    2007-01-01

    In this paper we describe market in projective geometry language and give definition of a matrix of market rate, which is related to the matrix rate of return and the matrix of judgements in the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). We use these observations to extend the AHP model to projective geometry formalism and generalise it to intransitive case. We give financial interpretations of such generalised model in the Projective Model of Market (PMM) and propose its simplification. The unification of the AHP model and projective aspect of portfolio theory suggests a wide spectrum of new applications such extended model.

  1. Modeling clicks beyond the first result page

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chuklin, A.; Serdyukov, P.; de Rijke, M.

    2013-01-01

    Most modern web search engines yield a list of documents of a fixed length (usually 10) in response to a user query. The next ten search results are usually available in one click. These documents either replace the current result page or are appended to the end. Hence, in order to examine more

  2. Modeling clicks beyond the first result page

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chuklin, A.; Serdyukov, P.; de Rijke, M.

    2013-01-01

    Most modern web search engines yield a list of documents of a fixed length (usually 10) in response to a user query. The next ten search results are usually available in one click. These documents either replace the current result page or are appended to the end. Hence, in order to examine more docu

  3. Tinamit: Making coupled system dynamics models accessible to stakeholders

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malard, Julien; Inam Baig, Azhar; Rojas Díaz, Marcela; Hassanzadeh, Elmira; Adamowski, Jan; Tuy, Héctor; Melgar-Quiñonez, Hugo

    2017-04-01

    Model coupling is increasingly used as a method of combining the best of two models when representing socio-environmental systems, though barriers to successful model adoption by stakeholders are particularly present with the use of coupled models, due to their high complexity and typically low implementation flexibility. Coupled system dynamics - physically-based modelling is a promising method to improve stakeholder participation in environmental modelling while retaining a high level of complexity for physical process representation, as the system dynamics components are readily understandable and can be built by stakeholders themselves. However, this method is not without limitations in practice, including 1) inflexible and complicated coupling methods, 2) difficult model maintenance after the end of the project, and 3) a wide variety of end-user cultures and languages. We have developed the open-source Python-language software tool Tinamit to overcome some of these limitations to the adoption of stakeholder-based coupled system dynamics - physically-based modelling. The software is unique in 1) its inclusion of both a graphical user interface (GUI) and a library of available commands (API) that allow users with little or no coding abilities to rapidly, effectively, and flexibly couple models, 2) its multilingual support for the GUI, allowing users to couple models in their preferred language (and to add new languages as necessary for their community work), and 3) its modular structure allowing for very easy model coupling and modification without the direct use of code, and to which programming-savvy users can easily add support for new types of physically-based models. We discuss how the use of Tinamit for model coupling can greatly increase the accessibility of coupled models to stakeholders, using an example of a stakeholder-built system dynamics model of soil salinity issues in Pakistan coupled with the physically-based soil salinity and water flow model

  4. Making sense of implementation theories, models and frameworks

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Nilsen, Per

    2015-01-01

    .... The aim of this article is to propose a taxonomy that distinguishes between different categories of theories, models and frameworks in implementation science, to facilitate appropriate selection...

  5. Engineering model development and test results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wellman, John A.

    1993-08-01

    The correctability of the primary mirror spherical error in the Wide Field/Planetary Camera (WF/PC) is sensitive to the precise alignment of the incoming aberrated beam onto the corrective elements. Articulating fold mirrors that provide +/- 1 milliradian of tilt in 2 axes are required to allow for alignment corrections in orbit as part of the fix for the Hubble space telescope. An engineering study was made by Itek Optical Systems and the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) to investigate replacement of fixed fold mirrors within the existing WF/PC optical bench with articulating mirrors. The study contract developed the base line requirements, established the suitability of lead magnesium niobate (PMN) actuators and evaluated several tilt mechanism concepts. Two engineering model articulating mirrors were produced to demonstrate the function of the tilt mechanism to provide +/- 1 milliradian of tilt, packaging within the space constraints and manufacturing techniques including the machining of the invar tilt mechanism and lightweight glass mirrors. The success of the engineering models led to the follow on design and fabrication of 3 flight mirrors that have been incorporated into the WF/PC to be placed into the Hubble Space Telescope as part of the servicing mission scheduled for late 1993.

  6. A Dynamic Model for Decision Making During Memory Retrieval

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-10-26

    attention and perception, the dynamics of short-term recognition memory, and quantum probability decision making. 15. SUBJECT TERMS...search.  Journal  of   Experimental  Psychology:  Learning,   Memory  and  Cognition,  40(6),  1524-­‐1539".         The...Rather,  selective  storage  is  guided  by  several   factors:   attention  is  given  to  pairings  on  the

  7. A linear programming model to optimize the decision-making to managing cogeneration system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tibi, Naser A. [United Arab Emirates University, P.O. Box 93330, Dubai (United Arab Emirates); Arman, Husam [University of Nottingham, Nottingham (United Kingdom)

    2007-08-15

    A mathematical linear programming (LP) model was developed to optimize the decision-making for managing a cogeneration facility as a potential clean-development mechanism project in a hospital in Palestine. The model was developed to optimize the cost of energy and the cost of installation of a small cogeneration plant under constraints on electricity-and-heat supply and demand balances. In the model, the sources of electricity are either from cogeneration or public utilities and it was calculated the least cost to supply electricity and heat to the hospital. The hospital is using heat for their operation and that made the application for the cogeneration to be attractive and feasible. In this study, we will develop the LP model and will show the results and the time schedule for the cogeneration. This developed LP model can be used and run to any cogeneration application with little modification. (orig.)

  8. Modeling Conflict And Exchange In Collective Decision Making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stokman, Frans N.

    1995-01-01

    Two dynamic models of collecuve decision maklng are Introduced and lllustrated wlth a simple example. A more extensive presentation and appllcauon concerning the European Community can be found In Bueno de Mesqulta and Stokman (19941. The two dynamlc models reflect two alternative views of collectiv

  9. Integrative Models in Environmental Planning and Policy Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kyler, David Clinton

    1984-01-01

    Discusses conceptual models of thought that have recently emerged to confront the conventional approaches to analysis and solution to complex environmental problems. In addition to a critical attack on the tradition of specialization and reductionism, several models are summarized that originated from ecology, cybernetics, and system theory. (BC)

  10. A normative model of hospital marketing decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hammond, K L; Brown, G; Humphreys, N

    1993-01-01

    A hospital marketing model is proposed for use as a framework for applying marketing strategy and concepts to hospitals. The cells of the model, primarily summarizing the many decisions of the marketing management process as can be applied to hospitals, are justified by the health care marketing literature.

  11. Making Assessment Easier with the Organizational Effectiveness Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heilman, Savannah C.; Kennedy-Phillips, Lance

    2011-01-01

    The Organizational Effectiveness Model was originally developed by Lance Kennedy-Phillips and Ellen Meents-DeCaigny at DePaul University and has been adapted to address the needs of The Ohio State University. The model's purpose is to help organizations measure progress toward mission fulfillment and goal achievement. It cascades, with each step…

  12. Making Assessment Easier with the Organizational Effectiveness Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heilman, Savannah C.; Kennedy-Phillips, Lance

    2011-01-01

    The Organizational Effectiveness Model was originally developed by Lance Kennedy-Phillips and Ellen Meents-DeCaigny at DePaul University and has been adapted to address the needs of The Ohio State University. The model's purpose is to help organizations measure progress toward mission fulfillment and goal achievement. It cascades, with each step…

  13. Microplasticity of MMC. Experimental results and modelling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maire, E. (Groupe d' Etude de Metallurgie Physique et de Physique des Materiaux, INSA, 69 Villeurbanne (France)); Lormand, G. (Groupe d' Etude de Metallurgie Physique et de Physique des Materiaux, INSA, 69 Villeurbanne (France)); Gobin, P.F. (Groupe d' Etude de Metallurgie Physique et de Physique des Materiaux, INSA, 69 Villeurbanne (France)); Fougeres, R. (Groupe d' Etude de Metallurgie Physique et de Physique des Materiaux, INSA, 69 Villeurbanne (France))

    1993-11-01

    The microplastic behavior of several MMC is investigated by means of tension and compression tests. This behavior is assymetric : the proportional limit is higher in tension than in compression but the work hardening rate is higher in compression. These differences are analysed in terms of maxium of the Tresca's shear stress at the interface (proportional limit) and of the emission of dislocation loops during the cooling (work hardening rate). On another hand, a model is proposed to calculate the value of the yield stress, describing the composite as a material composed of three phases : inclusion, unaffected matrix and matrix surrounding the inclusion having a gradient in the density of the thermally induced dilocations. (orig.).

  14. Design and Implementation of a General Decision-Making Model in RoboCup Simulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Changda Wang

    2004-09-01

    Full Text Available The study of the collaboration, coordination and negotiation among different agents in a multi-agent system (MAS has always been the most challenging yet popular in the research of distributed artificial intelligence. In this paper, we will suggest for RoboCup simulation, a typical MAS, a general decision-making model, rather than define a different algorithm for each tactic (e.g. ball handling, pass, shoot and interception, etc. in soccer games as most RoboCup simulation teams did. The general decision-making model is based on two critical factors in soccer games: the vertical distance to the goal line and the visual angle for the goalpost. We have used these two parameters to formalize the defensive and offensive decisions in RoboCup simulation and the results mentioned above had been applied in NOVAURO®, original name is UJDB, a RoboCup simulation team of Jiangsu University, whose decision-making model, compared with that of Tsinghua University, the world champion team in 2001, is a universal model and easier to be implemented.

  15. Modelling the learning of biomechanics and visual planning for decision-making of motor actions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cos, Ignasi; Khamassi, Mehdi; Girard, Benoît

    2013-11-01

    Recent experiments showed that the bio-mechanical ease and end-point stability associated to reaching movements are predicted prior to movement onset, and that these factors exert a significant influence on the choice of movement. As an extension of these results, here we investigate whether the knowledge about biomechanical costs and their influence on decision-making are the result of an adaptation process taking place during each experimental session or whether this knowledge was learned at an earlier stage of development. Specifically, we analysed both the pattern of decision-making and its fluctuations during each session, of several human subjects making free choices between two reaching movements that varied in path distance (target relative distance), biomechanical cost, aiming accuracy and stopping requirement. Our main result shows that the effect of biomechanics is well established at the start of the session, and that, consequently, the learning of biomechanical costs in decision-making occurred at an earlier stage of development. As a means to characterise the dynamics of this learning process, we also developed a model-based reinforcement learning model, which generates a possible account of how biomechanics may be incorporated into the motor plan to select between reaching movements. Results obtained in simulation showed that, after some pre-training corresponding to a motor babbling phase, the model can reproduce the subjects' overall movement preferences. Although preliminary, this supports that the knowledge about biomechanical costs may have been learned in this manner, and supports the hypothesis that the fluctuations observed in the subjects' behaviour may adapt in a similar fashion. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Making Supersymmetric Quivers from N =(0,2) Sigma Models

    CERN Document Server

    Shifman, Mikhail; Yung, Alexei

    2014-01-01

    We show how to construct quiver-like (0,2) sigma models starting from n copies of (2,2) CP(N-1) models (or similar more generic models). These "quivers" present a natural generalization of the non-minimally deformed (2,2) model with an extra (0,2) fermion superfield on tangle bundle T[CP(N-1)xC^1] considered previously. A remarkable feature observed is elimination of the spontaneous supersymmetry breaking. We study supersymmetric vacua and determine the particle spectrum in the large-N limit. We then examine the \\beta -functions of our quiver-like (0,2) sigma models and show that under certain conditions they develop an infrared fixed point in the perturbative domain.

  17. Extended warranties, maintenance service and lease contracts modeling and analysis for decision-making

    CERN Document Server

    Murthy, D N Prabhakar

    2014-01-01

    Serving to unify the existing literature on extended warranties, maintenance service contracts and lease contracts, this book also presents a unique perspective on the topic focussed on cost analysis and decision-making from the perspectives of the parties involved. Using a game theoretic approach together with mathematical modelling, results are presented in an integrated manner with key topics that require further research highlighted in order to serve as a starting point for researchers (engineers and statisticians) who are interested in doing further work in these areas. Designed to assist practitioners (managers, engineers, applied statisticians) who are involved with extended warranties, maintenance service contracts and lease contracts, the book provides them with the models and techniques needed for proper cost analysis and effective decision-making. The book is also suitable for use as a reference text in industrial engineering, applied statistics, operations research and management.

  18. Effect of Pedagogical Model on Indian and Malaysian Junior Hockey Players’ Decision Making and Skill Execution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sanmuga Nathan

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Background: This paper reports comparison of two studies investigated across Malaysia and India using merged pedagogical model (combination Teaching Games for Understanding (TGfU with Tactical Game model (TGM termed as Tactical Model (TM was compared to a semi traditional model termed as Skill Drill Technical (SDT. Objective: The objectives of these two studies were to investigate the effect of these two pedagogical models across two countries using mini-games of 5 versus 5, examining: decision-making and skill execution game situations among junior hockey players in coaching context. Methodology: These two quasi experimental studies comprised of Indian and Malaysian junior elite hockey players age 14±3 years old whereby n =30 players in each country was randomly selected and assigned equally to an quasi experimental group (TM, n= 15, and to SDT group (n=15 players. Result: Results for decision-making on whether to dribble, pass, tackle and score  significant improvement using TM (6.93±6.58 compared to SDT (2.42±3.01, among Indian junior hockey players, F(2,28 =5.84, p<0.05 after intervention. Similar results observed among the Malaysian players too whereby posttest score revealed TM (3.28±.311 while SDT (2.96±4.61. Whereas skill execution result for dribbling, passing, tackling and scoring indicated a significant improvement among Indian hockey players, F (1,28 = 10.00, p <0.05 via  TM (4.62±2.16; compared to with SDT (1.70±1.43. In contrast indicated, TM recorded no significant improvement compared to SDT after intervention F(1,28 = 1.64, p>0.05 among Malaysian players. Conclusion: TM seems to be suitable pedagogical model, however further research should address other parameter of game play in particular the relationship between agility and decision making of hockey game play, and coaches perception, understanding and usage of TM across other Asian countriesKeywords: Tactical model, Teaching Game for Understanding, Tactical Game

  19. New models for decision making in moral theology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lauer, E F

    1986-01-01

    The way that the Christian tradition faces moral issues is being reshaped. Rather than focusing solely on Scripture and tradition as the basis for resolving ethical issues, decision makers should investigate human experience as well, some contemporary theologians recommend. In contrast to a traditional notion of natural law, which analyzes "human nature," the revisionist approach analyzes human experiences to discover what is authentic in them. This process looks not only at the physical structure of an act but also at its intentionality and its effect on the parties involved. Absolute material norms do not exist, according to the revisionist school. Instead one must examine an act's effects on a person's relationship to God, to others, to the physical world, and to oneself to determine whether it is morally right or wrong. Although this theological trend could be disconcerting to those who serve on ethics committees--since it does not rely on clear-cut rules--and may make decision making more difficult, its value lies in its potential to bring Christians closer to a divine understanding of reality.

  20. A decision-making framework to model environmental flow requirements in oasis areas using Bayesian networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xue, Jie; Gui, Dongwei; Zhao, Ying; Lei, Jiaqiang; Zeng, Fanjiang; Feng, Xinlong; Mao, Donglei; Shareef, Muhammad

    2016-09-01

    The competition for water resources between agricultural and natural oasis ecosystems has become an increasingly serious problem in oasis areas worldwide. Recently, the intensive extension of oasis farmland has led to excessive exploitation of water discharge, and consequently has resulted in a lack of water supply in natural oasis. To coordinate the conflicts, this paper provides a decision-making framework for modeling environmental flows in oasis areas using Bayesian networks (BNs). Three components are included in the framework: (1) assessment of agricultural economic loss due to meeting environmental flow requirements; (2) decision-making analysis using BNs; and (3) environmental flow decision-making under different water management scenarios. The decision-making criterion is determined based on intersection point analysis between the probability of large-level total agro-economic loss and the ratio of total to maximum agro-economic output by satisfying environmental flows. An application in the Qira oasis area of the Tarim Basin, Northwest China indicates that BNs can model environmental flow decision-making associated with agricultural economic loss effectively, as a powerful tool to coordinate water-use conflicts. In the case study, the environmental flow requirement is determined as 50.24%, 49.71% and 48.73% of the natural river flow in wet, normal and dry years, respectively. Without further agricultural economic loss, 1.93%, 0.66% and 0.43% of more river discharge can be allocated to eco-environmental water demands under the combined strategy in wet, normal and dry years, respectively. This work provides a valuable reference for environmental flow decision-making in any oasis area worldwide.

  1. Deductive Nomological Model and Mathematics: Making Dissatisfaction more Satisfactory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniele Molinini

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The discussion on mathematical explanation has inherited the same sense of dissatisfaction that philosophers of science expressed, in the context of scientific explanation, towards the deductive-nomological model. This model is regarded as unable to cover cases of bona fide mathematical explanations and, furthermore, it is largely ignored in the relevant literature. Surprisingly, the reasons for this ostracism are not sufficiently manifest. In this paper I explore a possible extension of the model to the case of mathematical explanations and I claim that there are at least two reasons to judge the deductive-nomological picture of explanation as inadequate in that context.

  2. Adaptive network models of collective decision making in swarming systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Li; Huepe, Cristián; Gross, Thilo

    2016-08-01

    We consider a class of adaptive network models where links can only be created or deleted between nodes in different states. These models provide an approximate description of a set of systems where nodes represent agents moving in physical or abstract space, the state of each node represents the agent's heading direction, and links indicate mutual awareness. We show analytically that the adaptive network description captures a phase transition to collective motion in some swarming systems, such as the Vicsek model, and that the properties of this transition are determined by the number of states (discrete heading directions) that can be accessed by each agent.

  3. A facility location model for socio-environmentally responsible decision-making

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Ansbro, Dominic; Wang, Qing

    2013-01-01

    .... The model presented considers a network of suppliers, manufacturing facilities, customers, scrap recyclers, general recycling facilities and landfill sites and makes facility location and allocation...

  4. A Model of Supervisor Decision-Making in the Accommodation of Workers with Low Back Pain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams-Whitt, Kelly; Kristman, Vicki; Shaw, William S; Soklaridis, Sophie; Reguly, Paula

    2016-09-01

    Purpose To explore supervisors' perspectives and decision-making processes in the accommodation of back injured workers. Methods Twenty-three semi-structured, in-depth interviews were conducted with supervisors from eleven Canadian organizations about their role in providing job accommodations. Supervisors were identified through an on-line survey and interviews were recorded, transcribed and entered into NVivo software. The initial analyses identified common units of meaning, which were used to develop a coding guide. Interviews were coded, and a model of supervisor decision-making was developed based on the themes, categories and connecting ideas identified in the data. Results The decision-making model includes a process element that is described as iterative "trial and error" decision-making. Medical restrictions are compared to job demands, employee abilities and available alternatives. A feasible modification is identified through brainstorming and then implemented by the supervisor. Resources used for brainstorming include information, supervisor experience and autonomy, and organizational supports. The model also incorporates the experience of accommodation as a job demand that causes strain for the supervisor. Accommodation demands affect the supervisor's attitude, brainstorming and monitoring effort, and communication with returning employees. Resources and demands have a combined effect on accommodation decision complexity, which in turn affects the quality of the accommodation option selected. If the employee is unable to complete the tasks or is reinjured during the accommodation, the decision cycle repeats. More frequent iteration through the trial and error process reduces the likelihood of return to work success. Conclusion A series of propositions is developed to illustrate the relationships among categories in the model. The model and propositions show: (a) the iterative, problem solving nature of the RTW process; (b) decision resources necessary

  5. A model of supervisor decision-making in the accommodation of workers with low back pain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams-Whitt, Kelly; Kristman, Vicki; Shaw, William S.; Soklaridis, Sophie; Reguly, Paula

    2016-01-01

    PURPOSE To explore supervisors’ perspectives and decision-making processes in the accommodation of back injured workers. METHODS Twenty-three semi-structured, in-depth interviews were conducted with supervisors from eleven Canadian organizations about their role in providing job accommodations. Supervisors were identified through an on-line survey and interviews were recorded, transcribed and entered into NVivo software. The initial analyses identified common units of meaning, which were used to develop a coding guide. Interviews were coded, and a model of supervisor decision-making was developed based on the themes, categories and connecting ideas identified in the data. RESULTS The decision-making model includes a process element that is described as iterative “trial and error” decision-making. Medical restrictions are compared to job demands, employee abilities and available alternatives. A feasible modification is identified through brainstorming and then implemented by the supervisor. Resources used for brainstorming include information, supervisor experience and autonomy, and organizational supports. The model also incorporates the experience of accommodation as a job demand that causes strain for the supervisor. Accommodation demands affect the supervisor’s attitude, brainstorming and monitoring effort and communication with returning employees. Resources and demands have a combined effect on accommodation decision complexity, which in turn affects the quality of the accommodation option selected. If the employee is unable to complete the tasks or is reinjured during the accommodation, the decision cycle repeats. More frequent iteration through the trial and error process reduces the likelihood of return to work success. CONCLUSIONS A series of propositions is developed to illustrate the relationships among categories in the model. The model and propositions show: a) the iterative, problem solving nature of the RTW process; b) decision resources

  6. New Business Models In-the-making in Extant MNCs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dasi, Angels; Elter, Frank; Gooderham, Paul N.

    2017-01-01

    In recent years, we can observe the emergence of firms, born both digital and global, that have disrupted existing industries. Deploying digital technologies, they have developed innovative value chains and business models that threaten established multinational companies (MNCs). In this chapter......, we examine how MNCs can and do respond to the challenge digital technologies represent. We describe the main facets of digital technologies and discus the potential these have to undermine the value chains and business models of established MNCs. In order to illustrate this, we employ longitudinal...... data from Telenor, a leading multinational mobile telecom company. Telenor perceives digitalization as a critical threat that in turn is causing a radical rethink about the viability of its decentralized, locally responsive value chain and business model. Our data provides insights into business models...

  7. A consensus model for group decision making under interval type-2 fuzzy environment

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Xiao-xiong ZHANG; Bing-feng GE; Yue-jin TAN

    2016-01-01

    We propose a new consensus model for group decision making (GDM) problems, using an interval type-2 fuzzy environment. In our model, experts are asked to express their preferences using linguistic terms characterized by interval type-2 fuzzy sets (IT2 FSs), because these can provide decision makers with greater freedom to express the vagueness in real-life situa-tions. Consensus and proximity measures based on the arithmetic operations of IT2 FSs are used simultaneously to guide the decision-making process. The majority of previous studies have taken into account only the importance of the experts in the aggregation process, which may give unreasonable results. Thus, we propose a new feedback mechanism that generates different advice strategies for experts according to their levels of importance. In general, experts with a lower level of importance require a larger number of suggestions to change their initial preferences. Finally, we investigate a numerical example and execute com-parable models and ours, to demonstrate the performance of our proposed model. The results indicate that the proposed model provides greater insight into the GDM process.

  8. Characteristic times in the English Channel from numerical modelling: supporting decision-making

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Perianez, R [Departamento de Fisica Aplicada 1, Universidad de Sevilla, EUITA, Carretera Utrera km 1, 41013 Sevilla (Spain); Miro, C [Departamento de Fisica Aplicada, Facultad de Veterinaria, Universidad de Extremadura, Avenida de la Universidad s/n, 10071 Caceres (Spain)], E-mail: rperianez@us.es, E-mail: cmiro@unex.es

    2009-06-15

    A numerical model that simulates the dispersion of radionuclides in the English Channel has been applied to study the dispersion of conservative and non-conservative radionuclides released from the La Hague nuclear fuel reprocessing plant. The model is based upon previous work and now is able to simulate dispersion over long timescales (decades), explicitly including transport by instantaneous tidal currents and variable wind conditions. Wind conditions are obtained from meteorological statistics using a stochastic method. Outputs from the model are treated using time-series analysis techniques. These techniques allow the determination of characteristic times of the system, transport velocities and dispersion factors. This information may be very useful to support the decision-making process after an emergency situation. Thus, we are proposing that time-series analysis can be integrated with numerical modelling for helping decision-making in response to an accident. The model is first validated through its application to actual releases of {sup 99}Tc and {sup 125}Sb, comparing measured and computed concentrations, and characteristic times for three radionuclides are given next: a perfectly conservative one, a very reactive one ({sup 239,240}Pu) and {sup 137}Cs, which has an intermediate behaviour. Characteristic transport velocities and dispersion factors have been calculated as well. Model results are supported by experimental evidence.

  9. How can we make Fickian dispersion models useful in practice?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, J. H.; Rolle, M.; Kitanidis, P. K.

    2016-12-01

    Dispersion in porous media originates from the variability of fluid velocity jointly with concentration at scales smaller than the ones resolved in the continuum description of solute transport. The unresolved scales are thus associated with the pore-grain geometry and the larger-scale heterogeneity that are ignored when the composite pore-grain medium is replaced by a homogenous continuum. This applies whether the formation is modelled as homogeneous or discretized into homogeneous blocks. The process of dispersion is typically described through the Fickian model, i.e., dispersive flux is proportional to the gradient of the resolved concentration, commonly with the Scheidegger parameterization, i.e., a particular way to compute the dispersion coefficients utilizing dispersivity coefficients. Although the Fick-Scheidegger parameterization is by far the most commonly used in solute transport applications, its validity has been questioned. In this presentation, we will list conditions under which the Fickian dispersion model is justified, then present how the practical Fickian model can approximate what is often thought as "non-Fickian" behavior. Specifically, we will show with several examples that the Fickian dispersion model performs adequately using appropriate dispersion coefficients in a domain that is discretized finely enough for the local equilibrium conditions that the Fickian model requires to be satisfied. Over the last thirty years, advances in numerical linear algebra, adaptive mesh refinement, and high performance computing environments, in combination with a dramatic drop in computational cost, have made it possible to perform fine-resolution simulation. We will also present how upscaled hydraulic conductivity and macrodispersion coefficients change with respect to different grid size and heterogeneity scale and discuss the role of diffusion and mean velocity. From these illustrations, we argue that the predictive ability of transport modeling can be

  10. Economic decision making and the application of nonparametric prediction models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Attanasi, E.D.; Coburn, T.C.; Freeman, P.A.

    2008-01-01

    Sustained increases in energy prices have focused attention on gas resources in low-permeability shale or in coals that were previously considered economically marginal. Daily well deliverability is often relatively small, although the estimates of the total volumes of recoverable resources in these settings are often large. Planning and development decisions for extraction of such resources must be areawide because profitable extraction requires optimization of scale economies to minimize costs and reduce risk. For an individual firm, the decision to enter such plays depends on reconnaissance-level estimates of regional recoverable resources and on cost estimates to develop untested areas. This paper shows how simple nonparametric local regression models, used to predict technically recoverable resources at untested sites, can be combined with economic models to compute regional-scale cost functions. The context of the worked example is the Devonian Antrim-shale gas play in the Michigan basin. One finding relates to selection of the resource prediction model to be used with economic models. Models chosen because they can best predict aggregate volume over larger areas (many hundreds of sites) smooth out granularity in the distribution of predicted volumes at individual sites. This loss of detail affects the representation of economic cost functions and may affect economic decisions. Second, because some analysts consider unconventional resources to be ubiquitous, the selection and order of specific drilling sites may, in practice, be determined arbitrarily by extraneous factors. The analysis shows a 15-20% gain in gas volume when these simple models are applied to order drilling prospects strategically rather than to choose drilling locations randomly. Copyright ?? 2008 Society of Petroleum Engineers.

  11. Adaptive network models of collective decision making in swarming systems

    CERN Document Server

    Chen, Li; Gross, Thilo

    2015-01-01

    We consider a class of adaptive network models where links can only be created or deleted between nodes in different states. These models provide an approximate description of a set of systems where nodes represent agents moving in physical or abstract space, the state of each node represents the agent's heading direction, and links indicate mutual awareness. We show analytically that the adaptive network description captures the phase transition to collective motion in swarming systems and that the properties of this transition are determined by the number of states (discrete heading directions) that can be accessed by each agent.

  12. Modeling human decision making behavior in supervisory control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tulga, M. K.; Sheridan, T. B.

    1977-01-01

    An optimal decision control model was developed, which is based primarily on a dynamic programming algorithm which looks at all the available task possibilities, charts an optimal trajectory, and commits itself to do the first step (i.e., follow the optimal trajectory during the next time period), and then iterates the calculation. A Bayesian estimator was included which estimates the tasks which might occur in the immediate future and provides this information to the dynamic programming routine. Preliminary trials comparing the human subject's performance to that of the optimal model show a great similarity, but indicate that the human skips certain movements which require quick change in strategy.

  13. Altered risk-based decision making following adolescent alcohol use results from an imbalance in reinforcement learning in rats.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeremy J Clark

    Full Text Available Alcohol use during adolescence has profound and enduring consequences on decision-making under risk. However, the fundamental psychological processes underlying these changes are unknown. Here, we show that alcohol use produces over-fast learning for better-than-expected, but not worse-than-expected, outcomes without altering subjective reward valuation. We constructed a simple reinforcement learning model to simulate altered decision making using behavioral parameters extracted from rats with a history of adolescent alcohol use. Remarkably, the learning imbalance alone was sufficient to simulate the divergence in choice behavior observed between these groups of animals. These findings identify a selective alteration in reinforcement learning following adolescent alcohol use that can account for a robust change in risk-based decision making persisting into later life.

  14. Fuzzy Multiple Criteria Decision Making Model with Fuzzy Time Weight Scheme

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chin-Yao Low

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available In this study, we purpose a common fuzzy multiple criteria decision making model. A brand new concept - fuzzy time weighted scheme is adopted for considering in the model to establish a fuzzy multiple criteria decision making with time weight (FMCDMTW model. A real case of fuzzy multiple criteria decision making (FMCDM problems to be considering in this study. The performance evaluation of auction websites based on all criteria proposed in related literature. Obviously, the problem under investigated is a FMCDM problem with historic data and recent data. Since the evaluated criteria proposed in the literature cannot be defined precisely and numerically, fuzzy linguistic terms can be used to aggregate them numerically.  It not only conforms to human cognition but also benefits interpretation. Furthermore, notice that the literature considered contains certain amount of historic data. Equally weighted historic data is usually considered in FMCDM problems, and this approach would introduce bias owing to the collected data for a certain long time period.  As a result, fuzzy time weighted technique is adopted to resolve this issue.  

  15. Event Prediction for Modeling Mental Simulation in Naturalistic Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    2005-12-01

    batter to batter, or knows his history from videos of former games, he may have a mental model of what the next pitch is likely to be, given his own...21-22-23 April, Bruges , Belgium, pp 405- 410. Manning, Christopher D. & Schütze, Hinrich. (1999). Foundations of Statistical Natural Language

  16. Selecting crop models for decision making in wheat insurance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Castaneda Vera, A.; Leffelaar, P.A.; Alvaro-Fuentes, J.; Cantero-Martinez, C.; Minguez, M.I.

    2015-01-01

    In crop insurance, the accuracy with which the insurer quantifies the actual risk is highly dependent on the availability on actual yield data. Crop models might be valuable tools to generate data on expected yields for risk assessment when no historical records are available. However, selecting a c

  17. Selecting crop models for decision making in wheat insurance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Castaneda Vera, A.; Leffelaar, P.A.; Alvaro-Fuentes, J.; Cantero-Martinez, C.; Minguez, M.I.

    2015-01-01

    In crop insurance, the accuracy with which the insurer quantifies the actual risk is highly dependent on the availability on actual yield data. Crop models might be valuable tools to generate data on expected yields for risk assessment when no historical records are available. However, selecting a

  18. Models of governance in multihospital systems. Implications for hospital and system-level decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morlock, L L; Alexander, J A

    1986-12-01

    This study utilizes data from a national survey of 159 multihospital systems in order to describe the types of governance structures currently being utilized, and to compare the policy making process for various types of decisions in systems with different approaches to governance. Survey results indicate that multihospital systems most often use one of three governance models. Forty-one percent of the systems (including 33% of system hospitals) use a parent holding company model in which there is a system-wide corporate governing board and separate governing boards for each member hospital. Twenty-two percent of systems in the sample (but 47% of all system hospitals) utilize what we have termed a modified parent holding company model in which there is one system-wide governing board, but advisory boards are substituted for governing boards at the local hospital level. Twenty-three percent of the sampled systems (including 11% of system hospitals) use a corporate model in which there is one system-wide governing board but no other governing or advisory boards at either the divisional, regional or local hospital levels. A comparison of systems using these three governance approaches found significant variation in terms of system size, ownership and the geographic proximity of member hospitals. In order to examine the relationship between alternative approaches to governance and patterns of decision-making, the three model types were compared with respect to the percentages of systems reporting that local boards, corporate management and/or system-wide corporate boards have responsibility for decision-making in a number of specific issue areas. Study results indicate that, regardless of model type, corporate boards are most likely to have responsibility for decisions regarding the transfer, pledging and sale of assets; the formation of new companies; purchase of assets greater than $100,000; changes in hospital bylaws; and the appointment of local board members. In

  19. Koizumi carried the day: Did the Japanese election results make people happy and unhappy?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsutsui, Yoshiro; Kimball, Miles; Ohtake, Fumio

    2011-01-01

    This paper investigates whether the Japanese people were happy and unhappy with the general election conducted on September 11, 2005, in which the Prime Minister, Koizumi, won a landslide victory. We conducted a large survey just after the election to ask people how happy they were and which party they had supported. Although there are consistent tendencies that supporters of ruling parties were happier and supporters of opposition parties were unhappier, the effect was not significant. Considering the results of previous studies that showed that Americans demonstrated significant responses to the result of a presidential election, this study suggests that the Japanese people are indifferent to politics. PMID:21572922

  20. Science of Decision Making: A Data-Modeling Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-10-01

    product mass that is derived from the protein sequences in a given proteome database. The resulting peptide-spectrum match ( PSM ) score is computed...identified TP peptides. Keller, et al. developed the PSM -scoring algorithm on the basis of machine learning methods such as linear discriminant...analyze PSM results from the SEQUEST and OMSSA algorithms, and it has the potential to analyze results from other PMF algorithms as well. The

  1. What Makes Professional Development Effective? Results from a National Sample of Teachers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garet, Michael S.; Porter, Andrew C.; Desimone, Laura; Birman, Beatrice F.; Yoon, Kwang Suk

    2001-01-01

    Used a national probability sample of 1,027 mathematics and science teachers to provide a large-scale empirical comparison of effects of different characteristics of professional development on teachers' learning. Results identify three core features of professional development that have significant positive effects on teachers' self-reported…

  2. Modeling and Simulation for Enterprise Decision-Making: Successful Projects and Approaches

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ramadan, Noha; Ajami, Racha; Mohamed, Nader

    2015-01-01

    Decision-making in enterprises holds different possibilities for profits and risks. Due to the complexity of decision making processes, modeling and simulation tools are being used to facilitate them and minimize the risk of making wrong decisions in the various business process phases....... In this paper, we highlight the role of modeling and simulation in enhancing decision-making processes in enterprises. In addition, we show some techniques that helped enterprises in reaching effective and efficient decisions by adopting modeling and simulation tools....

  3. Modeling and Simulation for Enterprise Decision-Making: Successful Projects and Approaches

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ramadan, Noha; Ajami, Racha; Mohamed, Nader

    Decision-making in enterprises holds different possibilities for profits and risks. Due to the complexity of decision making processes, modeling and simulation tools are being used to facilitate them and minimize the risk of making wrong decisions in the various business process phases....... In this paper, we highlight the role of modeling and simulation in enhancing decision-making processes in enterprises. In addition, we show some techniques that helped enterprises in reaching effective and efficient decisions by adopting modeling and simulation tools....

  4. A Reinforcement Learning Model of Precommitment in Decision Making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zeb eKurth-Nelson

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Addiction and many other disorders are linked to impulsivity, where a suboptimal choice is preferred when it is immediately available. One solution to impulsivity is precommitment: constraining one's future to avoid being offered a suboptimal choice. A form of impulsivity can be measured experimentally by offering a choice between a smaller reward delivered sooner and a larger reward delivered later. Impulsive subjects are more likely to select the smaller-sooner choice; however, when offered an option to precommit, even impulsive subjects can precommit to the larger-later choice. To precommit or not is a decision between two conditions: (A the original choice (smaller-sooner vs. larger-later, and (B a new condition with only larger-later available. It has been observed that precommitment appears as a consequence of the preference reversal inherent in non-exponential delay-discounting. Here we show that most models of hyperbolic discounting cannot precommit, but a distributed model of hyperbolic discounting does precommit. Using this model, we find (1 faster discounters may be more or less likely than slow discounters to precommit, depending on the precommitment delay, (2 for a constant smaller-sooner versus larger-later preference, a higher ratio of larger reward to smaller reward increases the probability of precommitment, and (3 precommitment is highly sensitive to the shape of the discount curve. These predictions imply that manipulations that alter the discount curve, such as diet or context, may qualitatively affect precommitment.

  5. Multi-criteria model to support decision-making for the remediation of urban areas

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    De Luca, Christiano; Lopes, Ricardo T., E-mail: christiano_luca@hotmail.com, E-mail: ricardo@lin.ufrj.br [Coordenacao dos Programas de Pos-Graduacao em Engenharia (COPPE/UFRJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Programa de Engenharia Nuclear; Rochedo, Elaine R.R., E-mail: elainerochedo@gmail.com [Instituto de Radioprotecao e Dosimetria (IRD/CNEN-RJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Silva, Diogo N.G.; Guimaraes, Jean R.D., E-mail: diogons@gmail.com, E-mail: jeanrdg@biof.ufrj.br [Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ), RJ (Brazil). Instituto de Biofisica Carlos Chagas Filho; Rochedo, Pedro R.R., E-mail: rochedopedro@gmail.com [Coordenacao dos Programas de Pos-Graduacao em Engenharia (COPPE/UFRJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Programa de de Planejamento Energetico; Wasserman, Maria Angelica V., E-mail: mwasserman@ien.gov.br [Instituto de Engenharia Nuclear (IEN/CNEN-RJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2015-07-01

    Under the environmental modeling Project of radioecology research area of IRD (CNEN), several tools have been developed to support post-emergency activities. Currently, a multi-criteria model is in development with the aim of supporting decision-making processes under the radiological protection point of view. At this stage, we are focusing on the decontamination of urban areas. The model includes five calculation modules: (1) averted doses to the public due to remediation procedures; (2) occupational exposure of remediation workers; (3) properties of the wastes generated by a remediation procedure; (4) classification of each procedure for a specific urban scenario based on previously calculated quantities; and, (5) multi-criteria rank calculation. The classification of procedures is based on two types of criteria previously defined, both also included as input data of the model. The first type, called Subjective Criteria, is based on experts' opinions collected through questionnaires. The second type, called Technical Criteria, is calculated according to the outputs of the three first modules of the program. The output of the model is a rank order list indicating the priority of procedures to use for each different type of urban environment. The use of results based on criteria and methods developed previously to the occurrence of a contamination event intends not only to provide an input to decision-making processes but also to improve public confidence on authorities responsible for the remediation decisions. (author)

  6. How do People Make Sense of Unfamiliar Visualizations?: A Grounded Model of Novice's Information Visualization Sensemaking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Sukwon; Kim, Sung-Hee; Hung, Ya-Hsin; Lam, Heidi; Kang, Youn-ah; Yi, Ji Soo

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, we would like to investigate how people make sense of unfamiliar information visualizations. In order to achieve the research goal, we conducted a qualitative study by observing 13 participants when they endeavored to make sense of three unfamiliar visualizations (i.e., a parallel-coordinates plot, a chord diagram, and a treemap) that they encountered for the first time. We collected data including audio/video record of think-aloud sessions and semi-structured interview; and analyzed the data using the grounded theory method. The primary result of this study is a grounded model of NOvice's information Vlsualization Sensemaking (NOVIS model), which consists of the five major cognitive activities: 1 encountering visualization, 2 constructing a frame, 3 exploring visualization, 4 questioning the frame, and 5 floundering on visualization. We introduce the NOVIS model by explaining the five activities with representative quotes from our participants. We also explore the dynamics in the model. Lastly, we compare with other existing models and share further research directions that arose from our observations.

  7. Enabling Integrated Decision Making for Electronic-Commerce by Modelling an Enterprise's Sharable Knowledge.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Henry M.

    2000-01-01

    An enterprise model, a computational model of knowledge about an enterprise, is a useful tool for integrated decision-making by e-commerce suppliers and customers. Sharable knowledge, once represented in an enterprise model, can be integrated by the modeled enterprise's e-commerce partners. Presents background on enterprise modeling, followed by…

  8. Enabling Integrated Decision Making for Electronic-Commerce by Modelling an Enterprise's Sharable Knowledge.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Henry M.

    2000-01-01

    An enterprise model, a computational model of knowledge about an enterprise, is a useful tool for integrated decision-making by e-commerce suppliers and customers. Sharable knowledge, once represented in an enterprise model, can be integrated by the modeled enterprise's e-commerce partners. Presents background on enterprise modeling, followed by…

  9. Designs that make a difference: the Cardiac Universal Bed model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Jackie; Brown, Katherine Kay; Neal, Kelly

    2003-01-01

    Information contained in this article includes some of the findings from a joint research project conducted by Corazon Consulting and Ohio State University Medical Center on national trends in Cardiac Universal Bed (CUB) utilization. This article outlines current findings and "best practice" standards related to the benefits of developing care delivery models to differentiate an organization with a competitive advantage in the highly dynamic marketplace of cardiovascular care. (OSUMC, a Corazon client, is incorporating the CUB into their Ross Heart Hospital slated to open this spring.)

  10. Neoatherosclerosis:Coronary stents seal atherosclerotic lesions but result in making a new problem of atherosclerosis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Hidenori; Komiyama; Masamichi; Takano; Noritake; Hata; Yoshihiko; Seino; Wataru; Shimizu; Kyoichi; Mizuno

    2015-01-01

    Chronic inflammation of the native vessel wall with infiltration of lipid-laden foamy macrophages through impaired endothelium results in atherosclerosis. Percutaneous coronary intervention, including metallic stent implantation, is now widely utilized for the treatment of atherosclerotic lesions of the coronary artery. Baremetal stents and the subsequently developed drugeluting stents seal the atherosclerosis and resolve lumen stenosis or obstruction of the epicardial coronary artery and myocardial ischemia. After stent implantation, neointima proliferates within the stented segment. Chronic inflammation caused by a foreign body reaction to the implanted stent and subsequent neovascularization, which is characterized by the continuous recruitment of macrophages into the vessel, result in the transformation of the usual neointima into an atheromatous neointima. Neointima with an atherosclerotic appearance, such as that caused by thin-cap fibroatheromas, is now recognized as neoatherosclerosis, which can sometimes cause in-stent restenosis and acute thrombotic occlusion originating from the stent segment following disruption of the atheroma. Neoatherosclerosis is emerging as a new coronary stent-associated problem that has not yet been resolved. In this review article, we will discuss possible mechanisms, clinical challenges, and the future outlook of neoatherosclerosis.

  11. Ensemble modelling and structured decision-making to support Emergency Disease Management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Webb, Colleen T; Ferrari, Matthew; Lindström, Tom; Carpenter, Tim; Dürr, Salome; Garner, Graeme; Jewell, Chris; Stevenson, Mark; Ward, Michael P; Werkman, Marleen; Backer, Jantien; Tildesley, Michael

    2017-03-01

    Epidemiological models in animal health are commonly used as decision-support tools to understand the impact of various control actions on infection spread in susceptible populations. Different models contain different assumptions and parameterizations, and policy decisions might be improved by considering outputs from multiple models. However, a transparent decision-support framework to integrate outputs from multiple models is nascent in epidemiology. Ensemble modelling and structured decision-making integrate the outputs of multiple models, compare policy actions and support policy decision-making. We briefly review the epidemiological application of ensemble modelling and structured decision-making and illustrate the potential of these methods using foot and mouth disease (FMD) models. In case study one, we apply structured decision-making to compare five possible control actions across three FMD models and show which control actions and outbreak costs are robustly supported and which are impacted by model uncertainty. In case study two, we develop a methodology for weighting the outputs of different models and show how different weighting schemes may impact the choice of control action. Using these case studies, we broadly illustrate the potential of ensemble modelling and structured decision-making in epidemiology to provide better information for decision-making and outline necessary development of these methods for their further application. Crown Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  12. Making animals alcoholic: shifting laboratory models of addiction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramsden, Edmund

    2015-01-01

    The use of animals as experimental organisms has been critical to the development of addiction research from the nineteenth century. They have been used as a means of generating reliable data regarding the processes of addiction that was not available from the study of human subjects. Their use, however, has been far from straightforward. Through focusing on the study of alcoholism, where the nonhuman animal proved a most reluctant collaborator, this paper will analyze the ways in which scientists attempted to deal with its determined sobriety and account for their consistent failure to replicate the volitional consumption of ethanol to the point of physical dependency. In doing so, we will see how the animal model not only served as a means of interrogating a complex pathology, but also came to embody competing definitions of alcoholism as a disease process, and alternative visions for the very structure and purpose of a research field.

  13. Using PICO to align medical evidence with MDs decision making models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Sullivan, Dympna; Wilk, Szymon; Michalowski, Wojtek; Farion, Ken

    2013-01-01

    Modern medicine is characterized by an "explosion" in clinical research information making practical application of Evidence-Based Medicine (EBM), problematic for many clinicians. We have developed a PICO-(evidence based search strategy focusing on Patient/Population, Intervention, Comparison and Outcome)-based framework for (indexing and retrieving medical evidence and we posit that the use of PICO allows for organizing evidence that is aligned with an MD's decision making model. We describe a study where medical students evaluated our PICO-based approach and results show that students are eager to apply EBM but are hindered by a lack of specialist skills. Students reported that the PICO-based framework for organizing evidence provided an intuitive way of accessing and evaluating evidence and would be useful for their clinical tasks.

  14. A Cognitive Modeling Approach to Strategy Formation in Dynamic Decision Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prezenski, Sabine; Brechmann, André; Wolff, Susann; Russwinkel, Nele

    2017-01-01

    Decision-making is a high-level cognitive process based on cognitive processes like perception, attention, and memory. Real-life situations require series of decisions to be made, with each decision depending on previous feedback from a potentially changing environment. To gain a better understanding of the underlying processes of dynamic decision-making, we applied the method of cognitive modeling on a complex rule-based category learning task. Here, participants first needed to identify the conjunction of two rules that defined a target category and later adapt to a reversal of feedback contingencies. We developed an ACT-R model for the core aspects of this dynamic decision-making task. An important aim of our model was that it provides a general account of how such tasks are solved and, with minor changes, is applicable to other stimulus materials. The model was implemented as a mixture of an exemplar-based and a rule-based approach which incorporates perceptual-motor and metacognitive aspects as well. The model solves the categorization task by first trying out one-feature strategies and then, as a result of repeated negative feedback, switching to two-feature strategies. Overall, this model solves the task in a similar way as participants do, including generally successful initial learning as well as reversal learning after the change of feedback contingencies. Moreover, the fact that not all participants were successful in the two learning phases is also reflected in the modeling data. However, we found a larger variance and a lower overall performance of the modeling data as compared to the human data which may relate to perceptual preferences or additional knowledge and rules applied by the participants. In a next step, these aspects could be implemented in the model for a better overall fit. In view of the large interindividual differences in decision performance between participants, additional information about the underlying cognitive processes from

  15. A Cognitive Modeling Approach to Strategy Formation in Dynamic Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prezenski, Sabine; Brechmann, André; Wolff, Susann; Russwinkel, Nele

    2017-01-01

    Decision-making is a high-level cognitive process based on cognitive processes like perception, attention, and memory. Real-life situations require series of decisions to be made, with each decision depending on previous feedback from a potentially changing environment. To gain a better understanding of the underlying processes of dynamic decision-making, we applied the method of cognitive modeling on a complex rule-based category learning task. Here, participants first needed to identify the conjunction of two rules that defined a target category and later adapt to a reversal of feedback contingencies. We developed an ACT-R model for the core aspects of this dynamic decision-making task. An important aim of our model was that it provides a general account of how such tasks are solved and, with minor changes, is applicable to other stimulus materials. The model was implemented as a mixture of an exemplar-based and a rule-based approach which incorporates perceptual-motor and metacognitive aspects as well. The model solves the categorization task by first trying out one-feature strategies and then, as a result of repeated negative feedback, switching to two-feature strategies. Overall, this model solves the task in a similar way as participants do, including generally successful initial learning as well as reversal learning after the change of feedback contingencies. Moreover, the fact that not all participants were successful in the two learning phases is also reflected in the modeling data. However, we found a larger variance and a lower overall performance of the modeling data as compared to the human data which may relate to perceptual preferences or additional knowledge and rules applied by the participants. In a next step, these aspects could be implemented in the model for a better overall fit. In view of the large interindividual differences in decision performance between participants, additional information about the underlying cognitive processes from

  16. A Cognitive Modeling Approach to Strategy Formation in Dynamic Decision Making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sabine Prezenski

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Decision-making is a high-level cognitive process based on cognitive processes like perception, attention, and memory. Real-life situations require series of decisions to be made, with each decision depending on previous feedback from a potentially changing environment. To gain a better understanding of the underlying processes of dynamic decision-making, we applied the method of cognitive modeling on a complex rule-based category learning task. Here, participants first needed to identify the conjunction of two rules that defined a target category and later adapt to a reversal of feedback contingencies. We developed an ACT-R model for the core aspects of this dynamic decision-making task. An important aim of our model was that it provides a general account of how such tasks are solved and, with minor changes, is applicable to other stimulus materials. The model was implemented as a mixture of an exemplar-based and a rule-based approach which incorporates perceptual-motor and metacognitive aspects as well. The model solves the categorization task by first trying out one-feature strategies and then, as a result of repeated negative feedback, switching to two-feature strategies. Overall, this model solves the task in a similar way as participants do, including generally successful initial learning as well as reversal learning after the change of feedback contingencies. Moreover, the fact that not all participants were successful in the two learning phases is also reflected in the modeling data. However, we found a larger variance and a lower overall performance of the modeling data as compared to the human data which may relate to perceptual preferences or additional knowledge and rules applied by the participants. In a next step, these aspects could be implemented in the model for a better overall fit. In view of the large interindividual differences in decision performance between participants, additional information about the underlying

  17. Modeling and Analyzing Operational Decision-Making Synchronization of C2 Organization in Complex Environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zou Zhigang

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available In order to improve capability of operational decision-making synchronization (ODMS in command and control (C2 organization, the paper puts forward that ODMS is the negotiation process of situation cognition with three phases about “situation cognition, situation interaction and decision-making synchronization” in complex environment, and then the model and strategies of ODMS are given in quantity. Firstly, measure indexes of three steps above are given in the paper based on the time consumed in negotiation, and three patterns are proposed for negotiating timely in high quality during situation interaction. Secondly, the ODMS model with two stages in continuous changing situation is put forward in the paper, and ODMS strategies are analyzed within environment influence and time restriction. Thirdly, simulation cases are given to validate the process of ODMS under different continuous changing situations the results of this model are better than the other previous models to fulfill the actual restrictions, and the process of ODMS can be adjusted more reasonable for improving the capability of ODMS. Then we discuss the case and summarize the influence factors of ODMS in the C2 organization as organization structure, shared information resources, negotiation patterns, and allocation of decision rights.

  18. A vague-set-based fuzzy multi-objective decision making model for bidding purchase

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Zhou-jing; QIAN Edward Y.

    2007-01-01

    A vague-set-based fuzzy multi-objective decision making model is developed for evaluating bidding plans in a bidding purchase process. A group of decision-makers (DMs) first independently assess bidding plans according to their experience and preferences, and these assessments may be expressed as linguistic terms, which are then converted to fuzzy numbers. The resulting decision matrices are then transformed to objective membership grade matrices. The lower bound of satisfaction and upper bound of dissatisfaction are used to determine each bidding plan's supporting, opposing, and neutral objective sets, which together determine the vague value of a bidding plan. Finally, a score function is employed to rank all bidding plans. A new score function based on vague sets is introduced in the model and a novel method is presented for calculating the lower bound of satisfaction and upper bound of dissatisfaction. In a vague-set-based fuzzy multi-objective decision making model, different valuations for upper and lower bounds of satisfaction usually lead to distinct ranking results. Therefore, it is crucial to effectively contain DMs' arbitrariness and subjectivity when these values are determined.

  19. Fuzzy Decision-Making Approach in Geometric Programming for a Single Item EOQ Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Monalisha Pattnaik

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Background and methods: Fuzzy decision-making approach is allowed in geometric programming for a single item EOQ model with dynamic ordering cost and demand-dependent unit cost. The setup cost varies with the quantity produced/purchased and the modification of objective function with storage area in the presence of imprecisely estimated parameters are investigated.  It incorporates all concepts of a fuzzy arithmetic approach, the quantity ordered, and demand per unit compares both fuzzy geometric programming technique and other models for linear membership functions.  Results and conclusions: Investigation of the properties of an optimal solution allows developing an algorithm whose validity is illustrated through an example problem and the results discu ssed. Sensitivity analysis of the optimal solution is also studied with respect to changes in different parameter values.  

  20. Modeling Search Behaviors during the Acquisition of Expertise in a Sequential Decision-Making Task

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moënne-Loccoz, Cristóbal; Vergara, Rodrigo C.; López, Vladimir; Mery, Domingo; Cosmelli, Diego

    2017-01-01

    Our daily interaction with the world is plagued of situations in which we develop expertise through self-motivated repetition of the same task. In many of these interactions, and especially when dealing with computer and machine interfaces, we must deal with sequences of decisions and actions. For instance, when drawing cash from an ATM machine, choices are presented in a step-by-step fashion and a specific sequence of choices must be performed in order to produce the expected outcome. But, as we become experts in the use of such interfaces, is it possible to identify specific search and learning strategies? And if so, can we use this information to predict future actions? In addition to better understanding the cognitive processes underlying sequential decision making, this could allow building adaptive interfaces that can facilitate interaction at different moments of the learning curve. Here we tackle the question of modeling sequential decision-making behavior in a simple human-computer interface that instantiates a 4-level binary decision tree (BDT) task. We record behavioral data from voluntary participants while they attempt to solve the task. Using a Hidden Markov Model-based approach that capitalizes on the hierarchical structure of behavior, we then model their performance during the interaction. Our results show that partitioning the problem space into a small set of hierarchically related stereotyped strategies can potentially capture a host of individual decision making policies. This allows us to follow how participants learn and develop expertise in the use of the interface. Moreover, using a Mixture of Experts based on these stereotyped strategies, the model is able to predict the behavior of participants that master the task. PMID:28943847

  1. An interval number-based multiple attribute bid-decision making model for substation equipments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhu Lili

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available By analyzing the characteristics of public bidding for substation equipments and combining with the research methods of multiple attribute decision-making problems, a multiple attribute bid-decision making model is presented. Firstly, the weight of interval numbers is specified by using the interval numbers theory and entropy theory. Secondly, the deviation degree of decision-making scheme is proposed. Then the schemes are sorted. A typical case is analyzed based on the above-mentioned.

  2. RESULTS OF INTERBANK EXCHANGE RATES FORECASTING USING STATE SPACE MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammad Kashif

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available This study evaluates the performance of three alternative models for forecasting daily interbank exchange rate of U.S. dollar measured in Pak rupees. The simple ARIMA models and complex models such as GARCH-type models and a state space model are discussed and compared. Four different measures are used to evaluate the forecasting accuracy. The main result is the state space model provides the best performance among all the models.

  3. A Survey of Enterprise Architecture Analysis Using Multi Criteria Decision Making Models (MCDM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zia, Mehmooda Jabeen; Azam, Farooque; Allauddin, Maria

    System design becomes really important for software production due to continuous increase in size and complexity of software systems. It is a complex design activity to build architecture for the systems like large enterprises. Thus it is a critical issue to select the correct architecture in software engineering domain. Moreover, in enterprise architecture selection different goals and objectives must be taken into consideration as it is a multi-criteria decision making problem. Generally this field of enterprise architecture analysis has progressed from the application of linear weighting, through integer programming and linear programming to multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) models. In this paper we survey two multi-criteria decision making models (AHP, ANP) to determine that to what extent they have been used in making powerful decisions in complex enterprise architecture analysis. We have found that by using ANP model, decision makers of an enterprise can make more precise and suitable decisions in selection of enterprise architecture styles.

  4. A neurocognitive model of the ethical decision-making process: implications for study and practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reynolds, Scott J

    2006-07-01

    The field of business ethics is entrenched in a cognitive approach that portrays the ethical decision-making process as a completely deliberate and reasoned exercise. In light of growing concerns about the veracity of this approach, I build upon current knowledge of how the brain functions to present a neurocognitive model of ethical decision making. The model suggests that ethical decision making involves 2 interrelated yet functionally distinct cycles, a reflexive pattern matching cycle and a higher order conscious reasoning cycle, and thereby describes not only reasoned analysis, but also the intuitive and retrospective aspects of ethical decision making. The model sparks research in new areas, holds significant implications for the study of ethical decision making, and provides suggestions for improving ethical behavior in organizations.

  5. The Role of Model Making as a Constructivist Learning Tool to Enhance Deep Learning in a Building Technology Module

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Una Beagon

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper explores how the use of model making assignments in a Building Technology module encourages deeper learning of a particular topic compared to traditional lecture style teaching using 2D drawings or 3D models. It also investigates how student engagement can be improved as a result of creating a ‘constructivist environment’. The assessment tool, which involved students building a model of a window jamb and cill, was designed to encourage creativity and included elements of best practice such as reflection and development of written communication skills which are important graduate attributes for employability. Quantitative analyses based on surveys carried out amongst the students indicated that, students generally enjoyed making the model and felt, as an activity improved their attention levels. Furthermore, results showed that students felt more confident about recalling the specific detail as a result of the model making exercise compared to creating 2D drawings or merely observing a 3D model. Student feedback confirmed that model making goes some way to bridge the gap between lecture material and an understanding of how buildings are constructed on site.

  6. Assisting scientists to make their research results world wide freely available: an experience begun in the 90s

    OpenAIRE

    Biagioni, Stefania

    2005-01-01

    The aim of the ERCIM 'Digital Library Initiative' was to promote the development of digital library technology in Europe. Towards the end of 1997, ERCIM decided to set its own digital library up to provide open access to grey literature: the ERCIM Technical Reference Digital Library (ETRDL). The aim of ETRDL was to assist ERCIM scientists to make their research results world wide immediately available, and provide them with appropriate on-line facilities in order to access the technical docum...

  7. [Criteria of ineffectiveness of treatment with first-line therapy: how to use MRI results in decision making?].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khachanova, N V; Davydovskaia, M V

    2015-01-01

    The importance of MRI stuides in the control over treatment efficacy in multiple sclerosis and appropriate recommendations on drug substitution during treatment are discussed. We suggest low, middle or high risk in respect to the efficacy of current treatment. Accordingly, drug substitution can be related with the low level of fears for all three criteria or the moderate level for any two criteria or the high level for any one criterion. Since MRI criteria are important, this model appears to be the most rational because the physician can make a decision about treatment escalation if the patient has ≥3 new T2-lesions or ≥3 contrast-enhanced T1-lesions.

  8. Combined Economic and Hydrologic Modeling to Support Collaborative Decision Making Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheer, D. P.

    2008-12-01

    For more than a decade, the core concept of the author's efforts in support of collaborative decision making has been a combination of hydrologic simulation and multi-objective optimization. The modeling has generally been used to support collaborative decision making processes. The OASIS model developed by HydroLogics Inc. solves a multi-objective optimization at each time step using a mixed integer linear program (MILP). The MILP can be configured to include any user defined objective, including but not limited too economic objectives. For example, an estimated marginal value for water for crops and M&I use were included in the objective function to drive trades in a model of the lower Rio Grande. The formulation of the MILP, constraints and objectives, in any time step is conditional: it changes based on the value of state variables and dynamic external forcing functions, such as rainfall, hydrology, market prices, arrival of migratory fish, water temperature, etc. It therefore acts as a dynamic short term multi-objective economic optimization for each time step. MILP is capable of solving a general problem that includes a very realistic representation of the physical system characteristics in addition to the normal multi-objective optimization objectives and constraints included in economic models. In all of these models, the short term objective function is a surrogate for achieving long term multi-objective results. The long term performance for any alternative (especially including operating strategies) is evaluated by simulation. An operating rule is the combination of conditions, parameters, constraints and objectives used to determine the formulation of the short term optimization in each time step. Heuristic wrappers for the simulation program have been developed improve the parameters of an operating rule, and are initiating research on a wrapper that will allow us to employ a genetic algorithm to improve the form of the rule (conditions, constraints

  9. Modeling and Analysis in Support of Decision Making for Technological Investment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lenhart, S

    2003-06-11

    Engineering design, resource allocation, military operations, and investment strategies share a major common trait, which is, to a large extent, independent of their different origins, specific features, and intended goals. The unifying trait is the fact that, in any of these endeavors, one has to make reasonable choices, at multiple levels of decision making, among various possible and sometimes competing prospective solutions to an important and consequential practical problem. While the specifics of the problem depend on application, context, additional constraints, etc., the ultimate--albeit imprecise--goal in all these activities is to ''optimize performance,'' which is to have maximal success/profit/return with minimal time/effort/investment. In general, the underlying system is ruled by complex and often unknown dynamics, and affected by various uncertainties, which are unknown as well; on the other hand, there are numerous levels of decision making, which result in a hierarchical structure in the decision process (tree) that is both asynchronous and non-deterministic. Usually, indifferent of the specific application, as one lowers the level of decision making, alternatives depend on fewer independent variables and models become more detailed and physics/engineering based. On the contrary, at higher levels, various components aggregate and decision making is based more on fuzzier criteria instead of readily quantifiable physics/engineering details. Moreover, decisions are strongly influenced by the educational and personal biases of the people who take them. In some instances, this may blur, if not totally obfuscate objective comparisons between various options. Therefore, a crucial point in decision-making is properly understanding and quantifying the tradeoffs, including all their future relevant consequences. Since the interaction between various choices is an intricate nonlinear process, the focus shifts from the dynamics itself to

  10. Investigation of Effectiveness of Order Review and Release Models in Make to Order Supply Chain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kundu Kaustav

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Nowadays customisation becomes more common due to vast requirement from the customers for which industries are trying to use make-to-order (MTO strategy. Due to high variation in the process, workload control models are extensively used for jobshop companies which usually adapt MTO strategy. Some authors tried to implement workload control models, order review and release systems, in non-repetitive manufacturing companies, where there is a dominant flow in production. Those models are better in shop floor but their performances are never been investigated in high variation situations like MTO supply chain. This paper starts with the introduction of particular issues in MTO companies and a general overview of order review and release systems widely used in the industries. Two order review and release systems, the Limited and Balanced models, particularly suitable for flow shop system are applied to MTO supply chain, where the processing times are difficult to estimate due to high variation. Simulation results show that the Balanced model performs much better than the Limited model if the processing times can be estimated preciously.

  11. Agent-Based Modeling of Consumer Decision making Process Based on Power Distance and Personality

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Roozmand, O.; Ghasem-Aghaee, N.; Hofstede, G.J.; Nematbakhsh, M.A.; Baraani, A.; Verwaart, T.

    2011-01-01

    Simulating consumer decision making processes involves different disciplines such as: sociology, social psychology, marketing, and computer science. In this paper, we propose an agent-based conceptual and computational model of consumer decision-making based on culture, personality and human needs.

  12. Agent-Based Modeling of Consumer Decision making Process Based on Power Distance and Personality

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Roozmand, O.; Ghasem-Aghaee, N.; Hofstede, G.J.; Nematbakhsh, M.A.; Baraani, A.; Verwaart, T.

    2011-01-01

    Simulating consumer decision making processes involves different disciplines such as: sociology, social psychology, marketing, and computer science. In this paper, we propose an agent-based conceptual and computational model of consumer decision-making based on culture, personality and human needs.

  13. A Multilevel Model of Minority Opinion Expression and Team Decision-Making Effectiveness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Guihyun; DeShon, Richard P.

    2010-01-01

    The consideration of minority opinions when making team decisions is an important factor that contributes to team effectiveness. A multilevel model of minority opinion influence in decision-making teams is developed to address the conditions that relate to adequate consideration of minority opinions. Using a sample of 57 teams working on a…

  14. Diffusion Modelling Reveals the Decision Making Processes Underlying Negative Judgement Bias in Rats.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claire A Hales

    Full Text Available Human decision making is modified by emotional state. Rodents exhibit similar biases during interpretation of ambiguous cues that can be altered by affective state manipulations. In this study, the impact of negative affective state on judgement bias in rats was measured using an ambiguous-cue interpretation task. Acute treatment with an anxiogenic drug (FG7142, and chronic restraint stress and social isolation both induced a bias towards more negative interpretation of the ambiguous cue. The diffusion model was fit to behavioural data to allow further analysis of the underlying decision making processes. To uncover the way in which parameters vary together in relation to affective state manipulations, independent component analysis was conducted on rate of information accumulation and distances to decision threshold parameters for control data. Results from this analysis were applied to parameters from negative affective state manipulations. These projected components were compared to control components to reveal the changes in decision making processes that are due to affective state manipulations. Negative affective bias in rodents induced by either FG7142 or chronic stress is due to a combination of more negative interpretation of the ambiguous cue, reduced anticipation of the high reward and increased anticipation of the low reward.

  15. Diffusion Modelling Reveals the Decision Making Processes Underlying Negative Judgement Bias in Rats.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hales, Claire A; Robinson, Emma S J; Houghton, Conor J

    2016-01-01

    Human decision making is modified by emotional state. Rodents exhibit similar biases during interpretation of ambiguous cues that can be altered by affective state manipulations. In this study, the impact of negative affective state on judgement bias in rats was measured using an ambiguous-cue interpretation task. Acute treatment with an anxiogenic drug (FG7142), and chronic restraint stress and social isolation both induced a bias towards more negative interpretation of the ambiguous cue. The diffusion model was fit to behavioural data to allow further analysis of the underlying decision making processes. To uncover the way in which parameters vary together in relation to affective state manipulations, independent component analysis was conducted on rate of information accumulation and distances to decision threshold parameters for control data. Results from this analysis were applied to parameters from negative affective state manipulations. These projected components were compared to control components to reveal the changes in decision making processes that are due to affective state manipulations. Negative affective bias in rodents induced by either FG7142 or chronic stress is due to a combination of more negative interpretation of the ambiguous cue, reduced anticipation of the high reward and increased anticipation of the low reward.

  16. Models for Rational Decision Making. Analysis of Literature and Selected Bibliography. Analysis and Bibliography Series, No. 6.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hall, John S.

    This review analyzes the trend in educational decision making to replace hierarchical authority structures with more rational models for decision making drawn from management science. Emphasis is also placed on alternatives to a hierarchical decision-making model, including governing models, union models, and influence models. A 54-item…

  17. Decision-making in stimulant and opiate addicts in protracted abstinence: evidence from computational modeling with pure users

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahn, Woo-Young; Vasilev, Georgi; Lee, Sung-Ha; Busemeyer, Jerome R.; Kruschke, John K.; Bechara, Antoine; Vassileva, Jasmin

    2014-01-01

    Substance dependent individuals (SDI) often exhibit decision-making deficits; however, it remains unclear whether the nature of the underlying decision-making processes is the same in users of different classes of drugs and whether these deficits persist after discontinuation of drug use. We used computational modeling to address these questions in a unique sample of relatively “pure” amphetamine-dependent (N = 38) and heroin-dependent individuals (N = 43) who were currently in protracted abstinence, and in 48 healthy controls (HC). A Bayesian model comparison technique, a simulation method, and parameter recovery tests were used to compare three cognitive models: (1) Prospect Valence Learning with decay reinforcement learning rule (PVL-DecayRI), (2) PVL with delta learning rule (PVL-Delta), and (3) Value-Plus-Perseverance (VPP) model based on Win-Stay-Lose-Switch (WSLS) strategy. The model comparison results indicated that the VPP model, a hybrid model of reinforcement learning (RL) and a heuristic strategy of perseverance had the best post-hoc model fit, but the two PVL models showed better simulation and parameter recovery performance. Computational modeling results suggested that overall all three groups relied more on RL than on a WSLS strategy. Heroin users displayed reduced loss aversion relative to HC across all three models, which suggests that their decision-making deficits are longstanding (or pre-existing) and may be driven by reduced sensitivity to loss. In contrast, amphetamine users showed comparable cognitive functions to HC with the VPP model, whereas the second best-fitting model with relatively good simulation performance (PVL-DecayRI) revealed increased reward sensitivity relative to HC. These results suggest that some decision-making deficits persist in protracted abstinence and may be mediated by different mechanisms in opiate and stimulant users. PMID:25161631

  18. Decision-making in stimulant and opiate addicts in protracted abstinence: evidence from computational modeling with pure users

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Woo-Young eAhn

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Substance dependent individuals (SDI often exhibit decision-making deficits; however, it remains unclear whether the nature of the underlying decision-making processes is the same in users of different classes of drugs and whether these deficits persist after discontinuation of drug use. We used computational modeling to address these questions in a unique sample of relatively pure amphetamine-dependent (N=38 and heroin-dependent individuals (N=43 who were currently in protracted abstinence, and in 48 healthy controls. A Bayesian model comparison technique, a simulation method, and parameter recovery tests were used to compare three cognitive models: (1 Prospect Valence Learning with decay reinforcement learning rule (PVL-DecayRI, (2 PVL with delta learning rule (PVL-Delta, and (3 Value-Plus-Perseverance (VPP models based on Win-Stay-Lose-Switch (WSLS strategy. The model comparison results indicated that the VPP model, a hybrid model of reinforcement learning (RL and a heuristic strategy of perseverance had the best post hoc model fit, but the two PVL models showed better simulation performance. Computational modeling results suggested that overall all three groups relied more on RL than on a WSLS strategy. Heroin users displayed reduced loss aversion relative to healthy controls across all three models, which suggests that their decision-making deficits are longstanding (or pre-existing and may be driven by reduced sensitivity to loss. In contrast, amphetamine users showed comparable cognitive functions to healthy controls with the VPP model, whereas the second best-fitting model with relatively good simulation performance (PVL-DecayRI revealed increased reward sensitivity relative to healthy controls. These results suggest that some decision-making deficits persist in protracted abstinence and may be mediated by different mechanisms in opiate and stimulant users.

  19. Model Simultan Penentuan Toleransi Komponen Produk Rakitan dan Pabrik dalam Kolaborasi Manufaktur Make-to-Order

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Imron Mustajib

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper discusses the development of simultaneous optimization model to determine component tolerance of assembly product and plant for manufacturing processes by considering quality tolerance limits, and delivery time constraint to minimize total cost in collaboration environment of make-to-order manufacturing systems. Total cost of the system consists of manufacturing costs and quality loss costs as the tolerance function, operational costs for multi-plant manufacturing collaboration which includes: setup costs, material handling costs, operating costs of assembly, manual operations costs, and transportation costs. Formulation of the model developed uses mixed integer non linear programming as a method of solution search. In the numerical examples presented, the optimization process results an optimal solution. Optimal solution is not sensitive if the changes in quality tolerance constraint and delivery time constraint is not large. While the addition of an alternative plant for producing a component can changes the alternative plant selected

  20. A Survey of Game Theoretic Approaches to Modelling Decision-Making in Information Warfare Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kathryn Merrick

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Our increasing dependence on information technologies and autonomous systems has escalated international concern for information- and cyber-security in the face of politically, socially and religiously motivated cyber-attacks. Information warfare tactics that interfere with the flow of information can challenge the survival of individuals and groups. It is increasingly important that both humans and machines can make decisions that ensure the trustworthiness of information, communication and autonomous systems. Subsequently, an important research direction is concerned with modelling decision-making processes. One approach to this involves modelling decision-making scenarios as games using game theory. This paper presents a survey of information warfare literature, with the purpose of identifying games that model different types of information warfare operations. Our contribution is a systematic identification and classification of information warfare games, as a basis for modelling decision-making by humans and machines in such scenarios. We also present a taxonomy of games that map to information warfare and cyber crime problems as a precursor to future research on decision-making in such scenarios. We identify and discuss open research questions including the role of behavioural game theory in modelling human decision making and the role of machine decision-making in information warfare scenarios.

  1. ADDING SUPPLY-DRIVEN CONSUMPTION MAKES THE GHOSH MODEL EVEN MORE IMPLAUSIBLE

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oosterhaven, Jan

    2012-01-01

    Guerra and Sancho (2011) argue that adding a supply-driven consumption function to the Ghosh model diminishes its implausibility in the case of centrally planned economies. Extending the Leontief model with a demand-driven consumption function does make that model more realistic. Extending the Ghosh

  2. Development of a model to guide decision making in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis multidisciplinary care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hogden, Anne; Greenfield, David; Nugus, Peter; Kiernan, Matthew C

    2015-10-01

    Patients with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) face numerous decisions for symptom management and quality of life. Models of decision making in chronic disease and cancer care are insufficient for the complex and changing needs of patients with ALS . The aim was to examine the question: how can decision making that is both effective and patient-centred be enacted in ALS multidisciplinary care? Fifty-four respondents (32 health professionals, 14 patients and eight carers) from two specialized ALS multidisciplinary clinics participated in semi-structured interviews. Interviews were transcribed, coded and analysed thematically. Comparison of stakeholder perspectives revealed six key themes of ALS decision making. These were the decision-making process; patient-centred focus; timing and planning; information sources; engagement with specialized ALS services; and access to non-specialized services. A model, embedded in the specialized ALS multidisciplinary clinic, was derived to guide patient decision making. The model is cyclic, with four stages: 'Participant Engagement'; 'Option Information'; 'Option Deliberation'; and 'Decision Implementation'. Effective and patient-centred decision making is enhanced by the structure of the specialized ALS clinic, which promotes patients' symptom management and quality of life goals. However, patient and carer engagement in ALS decision making is tested by the dynamic nature of ALS, and patient and family distress. Our model optimizes patient-centred decision making, by incorporating patients' cyclic decision-making patterns and facilitating carer inclusion in decision processes. The model captures the complexities of patient-centred decision making in ALS. The framework can assist patients and carers, health professionals, researchers and policymakers in this challenging disease environment. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  3. Decision making under uncertainty in a spiking neural network model of the basal ganglia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Héricé, Charlotte; Khalil, Radwa; Moftah, Marie; Boraud, Thomas; Guthrie, Martin; Garenne, André

    2016-12-01

    The mechanisms of decision-making and action selection are generally thought to be under the control of parallel cortico-subcortical loops connecting back to distinct areas of cortex through the basal ganglia and processing motor, cognitive and limbic modalities of decision-making. We have used these properties to develop and extend a connectionist model at a spiking neuron level based on a previous rate model approach. This model is demonstrated on decision-making tasks that have been studied in primates and the electrophysiology interpreted to show that the decision is made in two steps. To model this, we have used two parallel loops, each of which performs decision-making based on interactions between positive and negative feedback pathways. This model is able to perform two-level decision-making as in primates. We show here that, before learning, synaptic noise is sufficient to drive the decision-making process and that, after learning, the decision is based on the choice that has proven most likely to be rewarded. The model is then submitted to lesion tests, reversal learning and extinction protocols. We show that, under these conditions, it behaves in a consistent manner and provides predictions in accordance with observed experimental data.

  4. A Production Planning Model for Make-to-Order Foundry Flow Shop with Capacity Constraint

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xixing Li

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The mode of production in the modern manufacturing enterprise mainly prefers to MTO (Make-to-Order; how to reasonably arrange the production plan has become a very common and urgent problem for enterprises’ managers to improve inner production reformation in the competitive market environment. In this paper, a mathematical model of production planning is proposed to maximize the profit with capacity constraint. Four kinds of cost factors (material cost, process cost, delay cost, and facility occupy cost are considered in the proposed model. Different factors not only result in different profit but also result in different satisfaction degrees of customers. Particularly, the delay cost and facility occupy cost cannot reach the minimum at the same time; the two objectives are interactional. This paper presents a mathematical model based on the actual production process of a foundry flow shop. An improved genetic algorithm (IGA is proposed to solve the biobjective problem of the model. Also, the gene encoding and decoding, the definition of fitness function, and genetic operators have been illustrated. In addition, the proposed algorithm is used to solve the production planning problem of a foundry flow shop in a casting enterprise. And comparisons with other recently published algorithms show the efficiency and effectiveness of the proposed algorithm.

  5. Effective decision-making model for hi-tech new product development

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王哲; 于渤; 徐殿国

    2003-01-01

    In order to identify the effective decision-making factors at the individual NPD project manager level,a new effective decision-making model has been established by introducing the concept of decision-making effectiveness, analyzing the role of expertise, and identifying the major role of expertise and insight with respect to the interfaces between a new product, an organization, customers, technologies and regulations, for the study of the effective decision-making facilitators and inhibitors for a NPD project. The analysis of the unique task conditions for individual decision-makers shows that perceived complexity, uncertainty and time pressure have their negative effect on the effective decision-making process. It is concluded that the flexible, balanced and appropriate use of rational analysis, common sense and intuition is a key effective decision-making factor, and the task conditions.

  6. Product Form Design Model Based on Multiobjective Optimization and Multicriteria Decision-Making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meng-Dar Shieh

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Affective responses concern customers’ affective needs and have received increasing attention in consumer-focused research. To design a product that appeals to consumers, designers should consider multiple affective responses (MARs. Designing products capable of satisfying MARs falls into the category of multiobjective optimization (MOO. However, when exploring optimal product form design, most relevant studies have transformed multiple objectives into a single objective, which limits their usefulness to designers and consumers. To optimize product form design for MARs, this paper proposes an integrated model based on MOO and multicriteria decision-making (MCDM. First, design analysis is applied to identify design variables and MARs; quantification theory type I is then employed to build the relationship models between them; on the basis of these models, an MOO model for optimization of product form design is constructed. Next, we use nondominated sorting genetic algorithm-II (NSGA-II as a multiobjective evolutionary algorithm (MOEA to solve the MOO model and thereby derive Pareto optimal solutions. Finally, we adopt the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP to obtain the optimal design from the Pareto solutions. A case study of car form design is conducted to demonstrate the proposed approach. The results suggest that this approach is feasible and effective in obtaining optimal designs and can provide great insight for product form design.

  7. Does electronic clinical microbiology results reporting influence medical decision making: a pre- and post-interview study of medical specialists

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bloembergen Peter

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Clinicians view the accuracy of test results and the turnaround time as the two most important service aspects of the clinical microbiology laboratory. Because of the time needed for the culturing of infectious agents, final hardcopy culture results will often be available too late to have a significant impact on early antimicrobial therapy decisions, vital in infectious disease management. The clinical microbiologist therefore reports to the clinician clinically relevant preliminary results at any moment during the diagnostic process, mostly by telephone. Telephone reporting is error prone, however. Electronic reporting of culture results instead of reporting on paper may shorten the turnaround time and may ensure correct communication of results. The purpose of this study was to assess the impact of the implementation of electronic reporting of final microbiology results on medical decision making. Methods In a pre- and post-interview study using a semi-structured design we asked medical specialists in our hospital about their use and appreciation of clinical microbiology results reporting before and after the implementation of an electronic reporting system. Results Electronic reporting was highly appreciated by all interviewed clinicians. Major advantages were reduction of hardcopy handling and the possibility to review results in relation to other patient data. Use and meaning of microbiology reports differ significantly between medical specialties. Most clinicians need preliminary results for therapy decisions quickly. Therefore, after the implementation of electronic reporting, telephone consultation between clinician and microbiologist remained the key means of communication. Conclusions Overall, electronic reporting increased the workflow efficiency of the medical specialists, but did not have an impact on their decision-making.

  8. [Medical decision making in hospital--results of an exploratory study on the value of shared decision making from the physicians point of view].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ernst, J; Holze, S; Sonnefeld, C; Götze, H; Schwarz, R

    2007-04-01

    The changes in the relationship between doctors and patients and the transfer of shared decision making into medical treatment has often been discussed. The role and the perspective of the patients are primarily described. The aim of our study is to examine the attitudes of physicians regarding the shared decision making concept, based on 15 interviews with clinical doctors. Our findings show that most doctors know the content of the concept and mostly agree with it. Practical barriers for the realisation of shared decision making are often stressed. The meaning of the concept of shared decision making for the physicians is in some respects different from the meaning of this concept for the patients. It is important to examine this concept more particularly with standardised instruments. It will be necessary to explore not only the role of patients and physicians in the medical decision making process but also the position of other relevant persons like the relatives of the patients or the nursing staff.

  9. A tuning algorithm for model predictive controllers based on genetic algorithms and fuzzy decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Lee, J H; Svrcek, W Y; Young, B R

    2008-01-01

    Model Predictive Control is a valuable tool for the process control engineer in a wide variety of applications. Because of this the structure of an MPC can vary dramatically from application to application. There have been a number of works dedicated to MPC tuning for specific cases. Since MPCs can differ significantly, this means that these tuning methods become inapplicable and a trial and error tuning approach must be used. This can be quite time consuming and can result in non-optimum tuning. In an attempt to resolve this, a generalized automated tuning algorithm for MPCs was developed. This approach is numerically based and combines a genetic algorithm with multi-objective fuzzy decision-making. The key advantages to this approach are that genetic algorithms are not problem specific and only need to be adapted to account for the number and ranges of tuning parameters for a given MPC. As well, multi-objective fuzzy decision-making can handle qualitative statements of what optimum control is, in addition to being able to use multiple inputs to determine tuning parameters that best match the desired results. This is particularly useful for multi-input, multi-output (MIMO) cases where the definition of "optimum" control is subject to the opinion of the control engineer tuning the system. A case study will be presented in order to illustrate the use of the tuning algorithm. This will include how different definitions of "optimum" control can arise, and how they are accounted for in the multi-objective decision making algorithm. The resulting tuning parameters from each of the definition sets will be compared, and in doing so show that the tuning parameters vary in order to meet each definition of optimum control, thus showing the generalized automated tuning algorithm approach for tuning MPCs is feasible.

  10. Using Coupled Simulation Models to Link Pastoral Decision Making and Ecosystem Services

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Randall B. Boone

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Historically, pastoral people were able to more freely use the services their semi-arid and arid ecosystems provide, and they adapted to changes in ways that improved their well-being. More recently, their ability to adapt has been constrained due to changes from within and from outside their communities. To compare possible responses by pastoral communities, we modeled ecosystem services and tied those services to decisions that people make at the household level. We created an agent-based household model called DECUMA, joined that model with the ecosystem model SAVANNA, and applied the linked models to southeastern Kajiado District, Kenya. The structure of the new agent-based model and linkages between the models are described, and then we demonstrate the model results using a scenario that shows changes in Maasai well-being in response to drought. We then explore two additional but related scenarios, quantifying household well-being if access to a grazing reserve is lost and if access is lost but those most affected are compensated. In the second scenario, households in group ranches abutting the grazing reserve that lost access had large declines in livestock populations, less food energy from animal sources, increased livestock sales and grain purchases, and increased need for supplemental foods. Households in more distant areas showed no changes or had increases in livestock populations because their herds had fewer animals with which to compete for forage. When households neighboring the grazing reserve were compensated for the lease of the lands they had used, they prospered. We describe some benefits and limitations of the agent-based approach.

  11. Encapsulation of a Decision-Making Model to Optimize Supplier Selection via Structural Equation Modeling (SEM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sahul Hameed, Ruzanna; Thiruchelvam, Sivadass; Nasharuddin Mustapha, Kamal; Che Muda, Zakaria; Mat Husin, Norhayati; Ezanee Rusli, Mohd; Yong, Lee Choon; Ghazali, Azrul; Itam, Zarina; Hakimie, Hazlinda; Beddu, Salmia; Liyana Mohd Kamal, Nur

    2016-03-01

    This paper proposes a conceptual framework to compare criteria/factor that influence the supplier selection. A mixed methods approach comprising qualitative and quantitative survey will be used. The study intend to identify and define the metrics that key stakeholders at Public Works Department (PWD) believed should be used for supplier. The outcomes would foresee the possible initiatives to bring procurement in PWD to a strategic level. The results will provide a deeper understanding of drivers for supplier’s selection in the construction industry. The obtained output will benefit many parties involved in the supplier selection decision-making. The findings provides useful information and greater understanding of the perceptions that PWD executives hold regarding supplier selection and the extent to which these perceptions are consistent with findings from prior studies. The findings from this paper can be utilized as input for policy makers to outline any changes in the current procurement code of practice in order to enhance the degree of transparency and integrity in decision-making.

  12. A critical meta-analysis of lens model studies in human judgment and decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaufmann, Esther; Reips, Ulf-Dietrich; Wittmann, Werner W

    2013-01-01

    Achieving accurate judgment ('judgmental achievement') is of utmost importance in daily life across multiple domains. The lens model and the lens model equation provide useful frameworks for modeling components of judgmental achievement and for creating tools to help decision makers (e.g., physicians, teachers) reach better judgments (e.g., a correct diagnosis, an accurate estimation of intelligence). Previous meta-analyses of judgment and decision-making studies have attempted to evaluate overall judgmental achievement and have provided the basis for evaluating the success of bootstrapping (i.e., replacing judges by linear models that guide decision making). However, previous meta-analyses have failed to appropriately correct for a number of study design artifacts (e.g., measurement error, dichotomization), which may have potentially biased estimations (e.g., of the variability between studies) and led to erroneous interpretations (e.g., with regards to moderator variables). In the current study we therefore conduct the first psychometric meta-analysis of judgmental achievement studies that corrects for a number of study design artifacts. We identified 31 lens model studies (N = 1,151, k = 49) that met our inclusion criteria. We evaluated overall judgmental achievement as well as whether judgmental achievement depended on decision domain (e.g., medicine, education) and/or the level of expertise (expert vs. novice). We also evaluated whether using corrected estimates affected conclusions with regards to the success of bootstrapping with psychometrically-corrected models. Further, we introduce a new psychometric trim-and-fill method to estimate the effect sizes of potentially missing studies correct psychometric meta-analyses for effects of publication bias. Comparison of the results of the psychometric meta-analysis with the results of a traditional meta-analysis (which only corrected for sampling error) indicated that artifact correction leads to a) an

  13. Application and evaluation research on group decision-making model in English teaching

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dong Wei

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper researches the issues of English teaching by the use of the group decision-making hierarchical structural assessment model, which aims at clearly resolving the problems in the examination of the current English teaching, and quickly provides effective solutions. The group decision-making hierarchical structural assessment model can ultimately construct a quantitative index assessment system based on the weight analysis and combined with the multi-index quantification mode, thus flexibly and effectively solving fuzzy and complex problems. This paper will build a group decision-making hierarchical structural assessment model for English teaching in China, establish factors affecting level and measures scheme level, make a detailed quantita-tive weight evaluation analysis and find out an educational method that can effectively enhance the practicability of English in China.

  14. Making interdisciplinary solid Earth modeling and analysis tools accessible in a diverse undergraduate and graduate classroom

    Science.gov (United States)

    Becker, T. W.

    2011-12-01

    I present results from ongoing, NSF-CAREER funded educational and research efforts that center around making numerical tools in seismology and geodynamics more accessible to a broader audience. The goal is not only to train students in quantitative, interdisciplinary research, but also to make methods more easily accessible to practitioners across disciplines. I describe the two main efforts that were funded, the Solid Earth Research and Teaching Environment (SEATREE, geosys.usc.edu/projects/seatree/), and a new Numerical Methods class. SEATREE is a modular and user-friendly software framework to facilitate using solid Earth research tools in the undergraduate and graduate classroom and for interdisciplinary, scientific collaboration. We use only open-source software, and most programming is done in the Python computer language. We strive to make use of modern software design and development concepts while remaining compatible with traditional scientific coding and existing, legacy software. Our goals are to provide a fully contained, yet transparent package that lets users operate in an easy, graphically supported "black box" mode, while also allowing to look under the hood, for example to conduct numerous forward models to explore parameter space. SEATREE currently has several implemented modules, including on global mantle flow, 2D phase velocity tomography, and 2D mantle convection and was used at the University of Southern California, Los Angeles, and at a 2010 CIDER summer school tutorial. SEATREE was developed in collaboration with engineering and computer science undergraduate students, some of which have gone on to work in Earth Science projects. In the long run, we envision SEATREE to contribute to new ways of sharing scientific research, and making (numerical) experiments truly reproducible again. The other project is a set of lecture notes and Matlab exercises on Numerical Methods in solid Earth, focusing on finite difference and element methods. The

  15. Hub and spoke model: making rural healthcare in India affordable, available and accessible.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Devarakonda, Srichand

    2016-01-01

    Quality health care should be within everyone's reach, especially in a developing country. While India has the largest private health sector in the world, only one-fifth of healthcare expenditure is publically financed; it is mostly an out-of-pocket expense. About 70% of Indians live in rural areas making about $3 per day, and a major portion of that goes towards food and shelter and, thus, not towards health care. Transportation facilities in rural India are poor, making access to medical facilities difficult, and infrastructure facilities are minimal, making the available medical care insufficient. The challenge presented to India was to provide health care that was accessible, available and affordable to people in rural areas and the low-income bracket. The intent of this article is to determine whether the hub and spoke model (HSM), when implemented in the healthcare industry, can expand the market reach and increase profits while reducing costs of operations for organizations and, thereby, cost to customers. This article also discusses the importance of information and communications technologies (ICT) in the HSM approach, which the handful of published articles in this topic have failed to discuss. This article opts for an exploratory study, including review of published literature, web articles, viewpoints of industry experts, published journals, and in-depth interviews. This article will discuss how and why the HSM works in India's healthcare industry while isolating its strengths and weaknesses, and analyzing the impact of India's success. India's HSM implementation has become a paramount example of an acceptable model that, while exceeding the needs and expectations of its patients, is cost-effective and has obtained operational and health-driven results. Despite being an emerging nation, India takes the top spot in terms of affordability of ICT as well as for having the highest number of computer-literate graduates and healthcare workers in the world

  16. Some vaccination strategies for the SEIR epidemic model. Preliminary results

    CERN Document Server

    De la Sen, M; Alonso-Quesada, S

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents a vaccination-based control strategy for a SEIR (susceptible plus infected plus infectious plus removed populations) propagation disease model. The model takes into account the total population amounts as a refrain for the illness transmission since its increase makes more difficult contacts among susceptible and infected. The control objective is the asymptotically tracking of the removed-by-immunity population to the total population while achieving simultaneously the remaining population (i.e. susceptible plus infected plus infectious) to asymptotically tend to zero.

  17. COLLISION AVOIDANCE DECISION- MAKING MODEL OF MULTI-AGENTS IN VIRTUAL DRIVING ENVIRONMENT WITH ANALYTIC HIERARCHY PROCESS

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LU Hong; YI Guodong; TAN Jianrong; LIU Zhenyu

    2008-01-01

    Collision avoidance decision-making models of multiple agents in virtual driving environ- ment are studied. Based on the behavioral characteristics and hierarchical structure of the collision avoidance decision-making in real life driving, delphi approach and mathematical statistics method are introduced to construct pair-wise comparison judgment matrix of collision avoidance decision choices to each collision situation. Analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is adopted to establish the agents' collision avoidance decision-making model. To simulate drivers' characteristics, driver factors are added to categorize driving modes into impatient mode, normal mode, and the cautious mode. The results show that this model can simulate human's thinking process, and the agents in the virtual environment can deal with collision situations and make decisions to avoid collisions without intervention. The model can also reflect diversity and uncertainty of real life driving behaviors, and solves the multi-objective, multi-choice ranking priority problem in multi-vehicle collision scenarios. This collision avoidance model of multi-agents model is feasible and effective, and can provide richer and closer-to-life virtual scene for driving simulator, reflecting real-life traffic environment more truly, this model can also promote the practicality of driving simulator.

  18. Models and methods of decision-making in the management of industrial enterprises’ balanced development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S.V. Коvеrhа

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the article. The main aim of this article is objectivation of scientific and methodical approach for solutions in the sphere of industrial enterprises functioning and development which allows to find out the compromise between the necessity to increase financial equilibrium of the enterprise as the economic system and the necessity to increase the major financial and business indicators. The results of the analysis. A scientific and methodical approach to decision-making in the field of balanced functioning and development of the industry based on the use of optimized models with the objective function of maximizing the integral index of the balance, which allows you to choose an optimal set and create a schedule of activities associated with emergency response to imbalances, taking into account the balance factors in decision-making and systematic increase in the enterprises balanced functioning and development. Three areas of decision-making in the field of industrial enterprises balanced functioning and development are specified: the planned activities related to the increase in the balance of the enterprise as an economic system; emergency response to the identified imbalances; accounting of balance factors in decision-making, the goals of which are not associated with the increase in the balance. It is rationalizes that since for the balanced state increase it is necessary to spend certain resources (time, financial, material, labor, etc., the decision usually comes down to the choice of available alternatives as to solutions that will maximize the system balance in resource-limited settings. Using the tools of mathematical programming optimization models to select the optimal set of activities and the arrangement of schedule for their implementation were developed. It is suggested two variants for functioning models: to maximize the average balance indicator during the arranged period at the assigned level of basic financial and

  19. Emotion, Decision-Making and Substance Dependence: A Somatic-Marker Model of Addiction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verdejo-García, A; Pérez-García, M; Bechara, A

    2006-01-01

    Similar to patients with orbitofrontal cortex lesions, substance dependent individuals (SDI) show signs of impairments in decision-making, characterised by a tendency to choose the immediate reward at the expense of severe negative future consequences. The somatic-marker hypothesis proposes that decision-making depends in many important ways on neural substrates that regulate homeostasis, emotion and feeling. According to this model, there should be a link between abnormalities in experiencing emotions in SDI, and their severe impairments in decision-making in real-life. Growing evidence from neuroscientific studies suggests that core aspects of substance addiction may be explained in terms of abnormal emotional guidance of decision-making. Behavioural studies have revealed emotional processing and decision-making deficits in SDI. Combined neuropsychological and physiological assessment has demonstrated that the poorer decision-making of SDI is associated with altered reactions to reward and punishing events. Imaging studies have shown that impaired decision-making in addiction is associated with abnormal functioning of a distributed neural network critical for the processing of emotional information, including the ventromedial cortex, the amygdala, the striatum, the anterior cingulate cortex, and the insular/somato-sensory cortices, as well as non-specific neurotransmitter systems that modulate activities of neural processes involved in decision-making. The aim of this paper is to review this growing evidence, and to examine the extent of which these studies support a somatic-marker model of addiction. PMID:18615136

  20. Youth Activity Involvement, Neighborhood Adult Support, Individual Decision Making Skills, and Early Adolescent Delinquent Behaviors: Testing a Conceptual Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crean, Hugh F.

    2012-01-01

    This study examines a cross-sectional structural equation model of participation in youth activities, neighborhood adult support, individual decision making skills, and delinquent behavior in urban middle school youths (n = 2611). Results indicate extracurricular activity participation had both direct and indirect associations with delinquent…

  1. Ranking environmental projects model based on multicriteria decision-making and the weight sensitivity analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    With the fast growth of Chinese economic,more and more capital will be invested in environmental projects.How to select the environmental investment projects(alternatives)for obtaining the best environmental quality and economic benefits is an important problem for the decision makers.The purpose of this paper is to develop a decision-making model to rank a finite number of alternatives with several and sometimes conflicting criteria.A model for ranking the projects of municipal sewage treatment plants is proposed by using exports' information and the data of the real projects.And,the ranking result is given based on the PROMETHEE method. Furthermore,by means of the concept of the weight stability intervals(WSI),the sensitivity of the ranking results to the size of criteria values and the change of weights value of criteria are discussed.The result shows that some criteria,such as"proportion of benefit to projoct cost",will influence the ranking result of alternatives very strong while others not.The influence are not only from the value of criterion but also from the changing the weight of criterion.So,some criteria such as"proportion of benefit to projoct cost" are key critera for ranking the projects. Decision makers must be cautious to them.

  2. Modeling the Occupational/Career Decision-Making Processes of Intellectually Gifted Adolescents: A Competing Models Strategy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jung, Jae Yup

    2014-01-01

    This study developed and empirically tested two related models of the occupational/career decision-making processes of gifted adolescents using a competing models strategy. The two models that guided the study, which acknowledged cultural orientations, social influences from the family, occupational/career values, and characteristics of…

  3. Decision-Making Processes among Prostate Cancer Survivors with Rising PSA Levels: Results from a Qualitative Analysis1

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Megan Johnson; Nelson, Christian J.; Peters, Ellen; Slovin, Susan F.; Hall, Simon J.; Hall, Matt; Herrera, Phapichaya Chaoprang; Leventhal, Elaine A.; Leventhal, Howard; Diefenbach, Michael A.

    2014-01-01

    Background Prostate cancer survivors with a rising prostate specific antigen (PSA) level have few treatment options, experience a heightened state of uncertainty about their disease trajectory that might include the possibility of cancer metastasis and death, and often experience elevated levels of distress as they have to deal with a disease they thought they had conquered. Guided by self-regulation theory, the present study examined the cognitive and affective processes involved in shared decision making between physician and patients who experience a rising PSA after definitive treatment for prostate cancer. Methods In-depth interviews were conducted with 34 prostate cancer survivors who had been diagnosed with a rising PSA (i.e., biochemical failure) within the past 12 months. Survivors were asked about their experiences and affective responses after being diagnosed with a rising PSA and while weighing potential treatment options. In addition, patients were asked about their decision-making process for the initial prostate cancer treatment. Results Compared to the initial diagnosis, survivors with a rising PSA reported increased negative affect following their diagnosis, concern about the treatability of their disease, increased planning and health behavior change, heightened levels of worry preceding doctor’s appointments (especially prior to the discussion of PSA testing results), and a strong reliance on physicians’ treatment recommendations. Conclusions Prostate cancer survivors’ decision-making processes for the treatment of a rising PSA are markedly different from those of the initial diagnosis of prostate cancer. Because patients experience heightened distress and rely more heavily on their physicians’ recommendations with a rising PSA, interactions with the health care provider provide an excellent opportunity to address and assist patients with managing the uncertainty and distress inherent with rising PSA levels. PMID:25385751

  4. Observing the observer (I): meta-bayesian models of learning and decision-making.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Daunizeau, J.; Ouden, H.E.M. den; Pessiglione, M.; Kiebel, S.J.; Stephan, K.E.; Friston, K.J.

    2010-01-01

    In this paper, we present a generic approach that can be used to infer how subjects make optimal decisions under uncertainty. This approach induces a distinction between a subject's perceptual model, which underlies the representation of a hidden "state of affairs" and a response model, which predic

  5. Licensing method for new nuclear power plant: A study on decision making modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ramli, N; Ohaga, E. O.; Jung, J. C. [KEPCO International Nuclear Graduate School, Ulsan (Korea, Republic of)

    2012-10-15

    This work provides a study on decision making modeling for a licensing method of a new nuclear power plant. SWOT analysis provides the licensing alternatives attributes, then the expectation from either COL or two step licensing method is decided by inputting the output from the Hurwitz mathematical model. From the analysis, COL shows the best candidate for both optimistic and pessimistic conditions.

  6. Business model change : Managerial roles and tactics in decision-making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van den Oever, Koen; Martin, Xavier; Baden-Fuller, Charles; Mangematin, Vincent

    2015-01-01

    We study the decision-making process behind business model change, focusing specifically on the tactics managers employ to gain support for such changes. We first argue for the prominent role of middle management in business model change, and second, we revisit the literature on issue selling and

  7. Beyond dual-process models: A categorisation of processes underlying intuitive judgement and decision making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Glöckner, A.; Witteman, C.L.M.

    2010-01-01

    Intuitive-automatic processes are crucial for making judgements and decisions. The fascinating complexity of these processes has attracted many decision researchers, prompting them to start investigating intuition empirically and to develop numerous models. Dual-process models assume a clear distinc

  8. Business model change : Managerial roles and tactics in decision-making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van den Oever, Koen; Martin, Xavier; Baden-Fuller, Charles; Mangematin, Vincent

    2015-01-01

    We study the decision-making process behind business model change, focusing specifically on the tactics managers employ to gain support for such changes. We first argue for the prominent role of middle management in business model change, and second, we revisit the literature on issue selling and ch

  9. PRESCRIPTIVE MODEL FOR THE STRATEGIC DECISION-MAKING PROCESSES FROM THE ROMANIAN ENTERPRISES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Razvan STEFANESCU

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a prescriptive model for the strategic decision-making from the Romanianenterprises. Within the paper there will be described the phases implied in solving a strategicproblem. Finally, there will be presented a strategic decision from a Romanian enterprise, elaboratedon the base of the model.

  10. A Review of Contemporary Ethical Decision-Making Models for Mental Health Professionals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Francis, Perry C.

    2015-01-01

    Mental health professionals are faced with increasingly complex ethical decisions that are impacted by culture, personal and professional values, and the contexts in which they and their clients inhabit. This article presents the reasons for developing and implementing multiple ethical decision making models and reviews four models that address…

  11. Multi-attribute decision making model based on optimal membership and relative entropy

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Rao Congjun; Zhao Yong

    2009-01-01

    To study the problems of multi-attribute decision making in which the attribute values are given in the form of linguistic fuzzy numbers and the information of attribute weights are incomplete, a new multi-attribute decision making model is presented based on the optimal membership and the relative entropy. Firstly, the definitions of the optimal membership and the relative entropy are given. Secondly, for all alternatives, a set of preference weight vectors are obtained by solving a set of linear programming models whose goals are all to maximize the optimal membership. Thirdly, a relative entropy model is established to aggregate the preference weight vectors, thus an optimal weight vector is determined. Based on this optimal weight vector, the algorithm of deviation degree minimization is proposed to rank all the alternatives. Finally, a decision making example is given to demonstrate the feasibility and rationality of this new model.

  12. A conceptual and computational model of moral decision making in human and artificial agents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wallach, Wendell; Franklin, Stan; Allen, Colin

    2010-07-01

    Recently, there has been a resurgence of interest in general, comprehensive models of human cognition. Such models aim to explain higher-order cognitive faculties, such as deliberation and planning. Given a computational representation, the validity of these models can be tested in computer simulations such as software agents or embodied robots. The push to implement computational models of this kind has created the field of artificial general intelligence (AGI). Moral decision making is arguably one of the most challenging tasks for computational approaches to higher-order cognition. The need for increasingly autonomous artificial agents to factor moral considerations into their choices and actions has given rise to another new field of inquiry variously known as Machine Morality, Machine Ethics, Roboethics, or Friendly AI. In this study, we discuss how LIDA, an AGI model of human cognition, can be adapted to model both affective and rational features of moral decision making. Using the LIDA model, we will demonstrate how moral decisions can be made in many domains using the same mechanisms that enable general decision making. Comprehensive models of human cognition typically aim for compatibility with recent research in the cognitive and neural sciences. Global workspace theory, proposed by the neuropsychologist Bernard Baars (1988), is a highly regarded model of human cognition that is currently being computationally instantiated in several software implementations. LIDA (Franklin, Baars, Ramamurthy, & Ventura, 2005) is one such computational implementation. LIDA is both a set of computational tools and an underlying model of human cognition, which provides mechanisms that are capable of explaining how an agent's selection of its next action arises from bottom-up collection of sensory data and top-down processes for making sense of its current situation. We will describe how the LIDA model helps integrate emotions into the human decision-making process, and we

  13. Effects of 3-D Visualization of Groundwater Modeling for Water Resource Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Block, J. L.; Arrowsmith, R.

    2006-12-01

    The rise of 3-D visualization hardware and software technology provides important opportunities to advance scientific and policy research. Although the petroleum industry has used immersive 3-D technology since the early 1990's for the visualization of geologic data among experts, there has been little use of this technology for decision making. The Decision Theater at ASU is a new facility using immersive visualization technology designed to combine scientific research at the university with policy decision making in the community. I document a case study in the use of 3-D immersive technology for water resource management in Arizona. Since the turn of the 20th century, natural hydrologic processes in the greater Phoenix region (Salt River Valley) have been shut down via the construction of dams, canals, wells, water treatment plants, and recharge facilities. Water from rivers that once naturally recharged the groundwater aquifer have thus been diverted while continuing groundwater outflow from wells has drawn the aquifer down hundreds of feet. MODFLOW is used to simulate groundwater response to the different water management decisions which impact the artificial and natural inflow and outflow. The East Valley Water Forum, a partnership of water providers east of Phoenix, used the 3-D capabilities of the Decision Theater to build visualizations of the East Salt River Valley groundwater system based on MODFLOW outputs to aid the design of a regional groundwater management plan. The resulting visualizations are now being integrated into policy decisions about long term water management. I address challenges in visualizing scientific information for policy making and highlight the roles of policy actors, specifically geologists, computer scientists, and political decision makers, involved in designing the visualizations. The results show that policy actors respond differently to the 3-D visualization techniques based on their experience, background, and objectives

  14. A new computational account of cognitive control over reinforcement-based decision-making: Modeling of a probabilistic learning task.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zendehrouh, Sareh

    2015-11-01

    Recent work on decision-making field offers an account of dual-system theory for decision-making process. This theory holds that this process is conducted by two main controllers: a goal-directed system and a habitual system. In the reinforcement learning (RL) domain, the habitual behaviors are connected with model-free methods, in which appropriate actions are learned through trial-and-error experiences. However, goal-directed behaviors are associated with model-based methods of RL, in which actions are selected using a model of the environment. Studies on cognitive control also suggest that during processes like decision-making, some cortical and subcortical structures work in concert to monitor the consequences of decisions and to adjust control according to current task demands. Here a computational model is presented based on dual system theory and cognitive control perspective of decision-making. The proposed model is used to simulate human performance on a variant of probabilistic learning task. The basic proposal is that the brain implements a dual controller, while an accompanying monitoring system detects some kinds of conflict including a hypothetical cost-conflict one. The simulation results address existing theories about two event-related potentials, namely error related negativity (ERN) and feedback related negativity (FRN), and explore the best account of them. Based on the results, some testable predictions are also presented. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Research on Multiple Attributes Classification Decision-making Model and Its Application

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    JianqingWang

    2004-01-01

    On the basis of analyzing the flaws of present some multiple attributes classification decision-making methods,to the question of characteristics of the multiple at-tributes classification decision-making and particular emphasis of respective attributes in the decision-making process,as well as its relevance to the decision making environment,the paper firstly formulates an optimal attributes system,then uses the Multiplicative Analytic Hierarchy Process(MAHP)to determine subjective weight coefficients,estimate the objective weight coefficients,establishes the optimal model of the weight coefficients of the whole optimal attributes system,and obtain the weights on attributes.Furthermore,the paper presents a decision-making method and gives its detail implementation procedure.Finally,an example is given to show the feasibility and effectiveness of this method.

  16. A Framework for Simplified Residential Energy Consumption Assessment towards Developing Performance Prediction Models for Retrofit Decision-Making

    OpenAIRE

    Durak, Tolga

    2011-01-01

    This research proposes to simplify the energy consumption assessment for residential homes while building the foundation towards the development of prediction tools that can achieve a credible level of accuracy for confident decision making. The energy consumption assessment is based on simplified energy consumption models. The energy consumption analysis uses a reduced number of energy model equations utilizing a critical, limited set of parameters. The results of the analysis are used to de...

  17. Optimising Transport Decision Making using Customised Decision Models and Decision Conferences

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barfod, Michael Bruhn

    The subject of this Ph.D. thesis entitled “Optimising Transport Decision Making using Customised Decision Models and Decision Conferences” is multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) and decision support in the context of transport infrastructure assessments. Despite the fact that large amounts...... is concerned with the insufficiency of conventional cost-benefit analysis (CBA), and proposes the use of MCDA as a supplementing tool in order to also capture impacts of a more strategic character in the appraisals and hence make more use of the often large efforts put in the preliminary examinations. MCDA...... identification to the possible decision making. The process makes use of a preliminary problem structuring phase, and an intervention phase featuring the concept of a decision conference where decision-makers and multiple stakeholders have the possibility of interacting with the decision support model...

  18. Some results regarding the comparison of the Earth's atmospheric models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Šegan S.

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we examine air densities derived from our realization of aeronomic atmosphere models based on accelerometer measurements from satellites in a low Earth's orbit (LEO. Using the adapted algorithms we derive comparison parameters. The first results concerning the adjustment of the aeronomic models to the total-density model are given.

  19. PREMISES FOR A MODEL OF DECISION – MAKING ON THE FINANCING OF A PROJECT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Popovici Ioana

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available The classical theory of finance is based on the premises of rationality and maximizing profits that accompany economic decision-making. Complementarily, the modern theory of behavioral finance studies the effect of emotional and psychological factors of decision- maker on the choice of financing sources for economic activities. In opposition with the classical perspective, the contemporary theory of finance brings up to the stage various aspects of decision making, including elements of strategic behavior towards risk. All these contradictory elements are used as premises for modeling the decision making process of financing a project.

  20. Using the ACT-R architecture to specify 39 quantitative process models of decision making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Julian N. Marewski

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available Hypotheses about decision processes are often formulated qualitatively and remain silent about the interplay of decision, memorial, and other cognitive processes. At the same time, existing decision models are specified at varying levels of detail, making it difficult to compare them. We provide a methodological primer on how detailed cognitive architectures such as ACT-R allow remedying these problems. To make our point, we address a controversy, namely, whether noncompensatory or compensatory processes better describe how people make decisions from the accessibility of memories. We specify 39 models of accessibility-based decision processes in ACT-R, including the noncompensatory recognition heuristic and various other popular noncompensatory and compensatory decision models. Additionally, to illustrate how such models can be tested, we conduct a model comparison, fitting the models to one experiment and letting them generalize to another. Behavioral data are best accounted for by race models. These race models embody the noncompensatory recognition heuristic and compensatory models as a race between competing processes, dissolving the dichotomy between existing decision models.

  1. How modeling and simulation have enhanced decision making in new drug development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Raymond; Ewy, Wayne; Corrigan, Brian W; Ouellet, Daniele; Hermann, David; Kowalski, Kenneth G; Lockwood, Peter; Koup, Jeffrey R; Donevan, Sean; El-Kattan, Ayman; Li, Cheryl S W; Werth, John L; Feltner, Douglas E; Lalonde, Richard L

    2005-04-01

    The idea of model-based drug development championed by Lewis Sheiner, in which pharmacostatistical models of drug efficacy and safety are developed from preclinical and available clinical data, offers a quantitative approach to improving drug development and development decision-making. Examples are presented that support this paradigm. The first example describes a preclinical model of behavioral activity to predict potency and time-course of response in humans and assess the potential for differentiation between compounds. This example illustrates how modeling procedures expounded by Lewis Sheiner provided the means to differentiate potency and the lag time between drug exposure and response and allow for rapid decision making and dose selection. The second example involves planning a Phase 2a dose-ranging and proof of concept trial in Alzheimer's disease (AD). The issue was how to proceed with the study and what criteria to use for a go/no go decision. The combined knowledge of AD disease progression, and preclinical and clinical information about the drug were used to simulate various clinical trial scenarios to identify an efficient and effective Phase 2 study. A design was selected and carried out resulting in a number of important learning experiences as well as extensive financial savings. The motivation for this case in point was the "Learn-Confirm" paradigm described by Lewis Sheiner. The final example describes the use of Pharmacokinetic and Pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) modeling and simulation to confirm efficacy across doses. In the New Drug Application for gabapentin, data from two adequate and well-controlled clinical trials was submitted to the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) in support of the approval of the indication for the treatment of post-herpetic neuralgia. The clinical trial data was not replicated for each of the sought dose levels in the drug application presenting a regulatory dilemma. Exposure response analysis submitted in the New Drug

  2. Driver's Behavior and Decision-Making Optimization Model in Mixed Traffic Environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaoyuan Wang

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Driving process is an information treating procedure going on unceasingly. It is very important for the research of traffic flow theory, to study on drivers' information processing pattern in mixed traffic environment. In this paper, bicycle is regarded as a kind of information source to vehicle drivers; the “conflict point method” is brought forward to analyze the influence of bicycles on driving behavior. The “conflict” is studied to be translated into a special kind of car-following or lane-changing process. Furthermore, the computer clocked scan step length is dropped to 0.1 s, in order to scan and analyze the dynamic (static information which influences driving behavior in a more exact way. The driver's decision-making process is described through information fusion based on duality contrast and fuzzy optimization theory. The model test and verification show that the simulation results with the “conflict point method” and the field data are consistent basically. It is feasible to imitate driving behavior and the driver information fusion process with the proposed methods. Decision-making optimized process can be described more accurately through computer precision clocked scan strategy. The study in this paper can provide the foundation for further research of multiresource information fusion process of driving behavior.

  3. The Effect of Bathymetric Filtering on Nearshore Process Model Results

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-01-01

    Filtering on Nearshore Process Model Results 6. AUTHOR(S) Nathaniel Plant, Kacey L. Edwards, James M. Kaihatu, Jayaram Veeramony, Yuan-Huang L. Hsu...filtering on nearshore process model results Nathaniel G. Plant **, Kacey L Edwardsb, James M. Kaihatuc, Jayaram Veeramony b, Larry Hsu’’, K. Todd Holland...assimilation efforts that require this information. Published by Elsevier B.V. 1. Introduction Nearshore process models are capable of predicting

  4. Integrated Bayesian models of learning and decision making for saccadic eye movements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brodersen, Kay H; Penny, Will D; Harrison, Lee M; Daunizeau, Jean; Ruff, Christian C; Duzel, Emrah; Friston, Karl J; Stephan, Klaas E

    2008-11-01

    The neurophysiology of eye movements has been studied extensively, and several computational models have been proposed for decision-making processes that underlie the generation of eye movements towards a visual stimulus in a situation of uncertainty. One class of models, known as linear rise-to-threshold models, provides an economical, yet broadly applicable, explanation for the observed variability in the latency between the onset of a peripheral visual target and the saccade towards it. So far, however, these models do not account for the dynamics of learning across a sequence of stimuli, and they do not apply to situations in which subjects are exposed to events with conditional probabilities. In this methodological paper, we extend the class of linear rise-to-threshold models to address these limitations. Specifically, we reformulate previous models in terms of a generative, hierarchical model, by combining two separate sub-models that account for the interplay between learning of target locations across trials and the decision-making process within trials. We derive a maximum-likelihood scheme for parameter estimation as well as model comparison on the basis of log likelihood ratios. The utility of the integrated model is demonstrated by applying it to empirical saccade data acquired from three healthy subjects. Model comparison is used (i) to show that eye movements do not only reflect marginal but also conditional probabilities of target locations, and (ii) to reveal subject-specific learning profiles over trials. These individual learning profiles are sufficiently distinct that test samples can be successfully mapped onto the correct subject by a naïve Bayes classifier. Altogether, our approach extends the class of linear rise-to-threshold models of saccadic decision making, overcomes some of their previous limitations, and enables statistical inference both about learning of target locations across trials and the decision-making process within trials.

  5. Results from modeling and simulation of chemical downstream etch systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Meeks, E.; Vosen, S.R.; Shon, J.W.; Larson, R.S.; Fox, C.A.; Buchenauer

    1996-05-01

    This report summarizes modeling work performed at Sandia in support of Chemical Downstream Etch (CDE) benchmark and tool development programs under a Cooperative Research and Development Agreement (CRADA) with SEMATECH. The Chemical Downstream Etch (CDE) Modeling Project supports SEMATECH Joint Development Projects (JDPs) with Matrix Integrated Systems, Applied Materials, and Astex Corporation in the development of new CDE reactors for wafer cleaning and stripping processes. These dry-etch reactors replace wet-etch steps in microelectronics fabrication, enabling compatibility with other process steps and reducing the use of hazardous chemicals. Models were developed at Sandia to simulate the gas flow, chemistry and transport in CDE reactors. These models address the essential components of the CDE system: a microwave source, a transport tube, a showerhead/gas inlet, and a downstream etch chamber. The models have been used in tandem to determine the evolution of reactive species throughout the system, and to make recommendations for process and tool optimization. A significant part of this task has been in the assembly of a reasonable set of chemical rate constants and species data necessary for successful use of the models. Often the kinetic parameters were uncertain or unknown. For this reason, a significant effort was placed on model validation to obtain industry confidence in the model predictions. Data for model validation were obtained from the Sandia Molecular Beam Mass Spectrometry (MBMS) experiments, from the literature, from the CDE Benchmark Project (also part of the Sandia/SEMATECH CRADA), and from the JDP partners. The validated models were used to evaluate process behavior as a function of microwave-source operating parameters, transport-tube geometry, system pressure, and downstream chamber geometry. In addition, quantitative correlations were developed between CDE tool performance and operation set points.

  6. Impact of methodology on the results of economic evaluations of varicella vaccination programs: is it important for decision-making?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patrícia Coelho de Soárez

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available This study aims to review the literature on economic evaluation of childhood varicella vaccination programs and to discuss how heterogeneity in methodological aspects and estimation of parameters can affect the studies' results. After applying the inclusion criteria, 27 studies published from 1980 to 2008 were analyzed in relation to methodological differences. There was great heterogeneity in the perspective adopted, evaluation of indirect costs, type of model used, modeling of the effect on herpes zoster, and estimation of vaccine price and efficacy parameters. The factor with the greatest impact on results was the inclusion of indirect costs, followed by the perspective adopted and vaccine price. The choice of a particular methodological aspect or parameter affected the studies' results and conclusions. It is essential that authors present these choices transparently so that users of economic evaluations understand the implications of such choices and the direction in which the results of the analysis were conducted.

  7. Water Quality and Quantity Modeling for Hydrologic and Policy Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rubiano, J.; Giron, E.; Quintero, M.; O'Brien, R.

    2004-12-01

    This paper presents the results of a research project that elucidate the excesses of nitrogen and phosphorous using a spatial-temporal modeling approach. The project uses the approach of integrating biophysical and socio-economic knowledge to offer sound solution to multiple stakeholders within a watershed context. The aim is to promote rural development and solve environmental conflicts by focusing on the internalization of externalities derived from watershed management, triggering the transference of funding from urban to rural populations, making the city invest in environmental goods or services offered by rural environments. The integrated modeling is focused towards identifying causal relationships between land use and management on the one hand, and water quantity/quality and sedimentation downstream on the other. Estimation of the amount of contaminated sediments transported in the study area and its impact is also studied here. The soil runoff information within the study area is obtained considering the characteristics of erosion using a MUSLE model as a sub-model of SWAT model. Using regression analysis, mathematical relationships between rainfall and surface runoff and between land use or management practices and the measured nitrate and phosphate load are established. The methodology first integrates most of the key spatial information available for the site to facilitate envisioning different land use scenarios and their impacts upon water resources. Subsequently, selected alternatives scenarios regarding the identified externalities are analyzed using optimization models. Opportunities for and constraints to promoting co-operation among users are exposed with the aid of economic games in which more sustainable land use or management alternatives are suggested. Strategic alliances and collective action are promoted in order to implement those alternatives that are environmentally sound and economically feasible. Such options are supported by co

  8. Monitoring And Modeling Environmental Water Quality To Support Environmental Water Purchase Decision-making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Null, S. E.; Elmore, L.; Mouzon, N. R.; Wood, J. R.

    2016-12-01

    More than 25 million cubic meters (20,000 acre feet) of water has been purchased from willing agricultural sellers for environmental flows in Nevada's Walker River to improve riverine habitat and connectivity with downstream Walker Lake. Reduced instream flows limit native fish populations, like Lahontan cutthroat trout, through warm daily stream temperatures and low dissolved oxygen concentrations. Environmental water purchases maintain instream flows, although effects on water quality are more varied. We use multi-year water quality monitoring and physically-based hydrodynamic and water quality modeling to estimate streamflow, water temperature, and dissolved oxygen concentrations with alternative environmental water purchases. We simulate water temperature and dissolved oxygen changes from increased streamflow to prioritize the time periods and locations that environmental water purchases most enhance trout habitat as a function of water quality. Monitoring results indicate stream temperature and dissolved oxygen limitations generally exist in the 115 kilometers upstream of Walker Lake (about 37% of the study area) from approximately May through September, and this reach acts as a water quality barrier for fish passage. Model results indicate that low streamflows generally coincide with critically warm stream temperatures, water quality refugia exist on a tributary of the Walker River, and environmental water purchases may improve stream temperature and dissolved oxygen conditions for some reaches and seasons, especially in dry years and prolonged droughts. This research supports environmental water purchase decision-making and allows water purchase decisions to be prioritized with other river restoration alternatives.

  9. Steel Containment Vessel Model Test: Results and Evaluation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Costello, J.F.; Hashimote, T.; Hessheimer, M.F.; Luk, V.K.

    1999-03-01

    A high pressure test of the steel containment vessel (SCV) model was conducted on December 11-12, 1996 at Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM, USA. The test model is a mixed-scaled model (1:10 in geometry and 1:4 in shell thickness) of an improved Mark II boiling water reactor (BWR) containment. A concentric steel contact structure (CS), installed over the SCV model and separated at a nominally uniform distance from it, provided a simplified representation of a reactor shield building in the actual plant. The SCV model and contact structure were instrumented with strain gages and displacement transducers to record the deformation behavior of the SCV model during the high pressure test. This paper summarizes the conduct and the results of the high pressure test and discusses the posttest metallurgical evaluation results on specimens removed from the SCV model.

  10. Validation of decision-making models and analysis of decision variables in the rat basal ganglia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ito, Makoto; Doya, Kenji

    2009-08-05

    Reinforcement learning theory plays a key role in understanding the behavioral and neural mechanisms of choice behavior in animals and humans. Especially, intermediate variables of learning models estimated from behavioral data, such as the expectation of reward for each candidate choice (action value), have been used in searches for the neural correlates of computational elements in learning and decision making. The aims of the present study are as follows: (1) to test which computational model best captures the choice learning process in animals and (2) to elucidate how action values are represented in different parts of the corticobasal ganglia circuit. We compared different behavioral learning algorithms to predict the choice sequences generated by rats during a free-choice task and analyzed associated neural activity in the nucleus accumbens (NAc) and ventral pallidum (VP). The major findings of this study were as follows: (1) modified versions of an action-value learning model captured a variety of choice strategies of rats, including win-stay-lose-switch and persevering behavior, and predicted rats' choice sequences better than the best multistep Markov model; and (2) information about action values and future actions was coded in both the NAc and VP, but was less dominant than information about trial types, selected actions, and reward outcome. The results of our model-based analysis suggest that the primary role of the NAc and VP is to monitor information important for updating choice behaviors. Information represented in the NAc and VP might contribute to a choice mechanism that is situated elsewhere.

  11. An Integrated Model for Optimization Oriented Decision Aiding and Rule Based Decision Making in Fuzzy Environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Yousefli

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper a fuzzy decision aid system is developed base on new concepts that presented in the field of fuzzy decision making in fuzzy environment (FDMFE. This framework aids decision makers to understand different circumstances of an uncertain problem that may occur in the future. Also, to keep decision maker from the optimization problem complexities, a decision support system, which can be replaced by optimization problem, is presented to make optimum or near optimum decisions without solving optimization problem directly. An application of the developed decision aid model and the decision support system is presented in the field of inventory models.

  12. Scenario analysis in business model choosing for instrument-making enterprise

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ye.V. Krykavskyi

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the article. The aim of this study is to develop the selection technology of the enterprise business model in conditions of market dynamism and uncertainty, as well as testing of this technology at a specific enterprise according to the method of situational analysis. The results of the analysis. Economic development of modern markets is characterized by the fact that almost all the enterprises experience significant dynamics and a high degree of entropy, which complicates the decision-making process. As the basic unit of the economy, the enterprise should respond correctly to new objective challenges, including: instability of global financial markets, business intellectualization and acceleration of scientific-technological progress with simultaneous strengthening of environmental demands to economic systems, increasing of competition and its transition to a global level, rapid change of consumer demands and individualization of consumer proposal, increased attention to corporate responsibility towards society and so on. Obviously, the important task of modern enterprises becomes a justification of business organization model, which is selected in accordance with the established potential and the aforementioned challenges. The authors have developed a selection technology of the enterprise business model, which involves the combination of scenarios use, strategic alternatives matrix, SWOT-analysis and the method of «decisions tree» during the implementation of the following steps: - generating of alternative scenarios of enterprise business models with the help of strategic alternatives matrix. Previously prepared analytical materials are used in the preparation of scenarios. Creating a scenario involves the following steps: determining a time interval formulation of the events, verbal interpretation of their essence, their quantitative assessment; - choosing the type of scenarios and scenarios selection criteria for business

  13. Results of the Marine Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project, MISMIP

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Pattyn

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Predictions of marine ice-sheet behaviour require models that are able to robustly simulate grounding line migration. We present results of an intercomparison exercise for marine ice-sheet models. Verification is effected by comparison with approximate analytical solutions for flux across the grounding line using simplified geometrical configurations (no lateral variations, no effects of lateral buttressing. Unique steady state grounding line positions exist for ice sheets on a downward sloping bed, while hysteresis occurs across an overdeepened bed, and stable steady state grounding line positions only occur on the downward-sloping sections. Models based on the shallow ice approximation, which does not resolve extensional stresses, do not reproduce the approximate analytical results unless appropriate parameterizations for ice flux are imposed at the grounding line. For extensional-stress resolving "shelfy stream" models, differences between model results were mainly due to the choice of spatial discretization. Moving grid methods were found to be the most accurate at capturing grounding line evolution, since they track the grounding line explicitly. Adaptive mesh refinement can further improve accuracy, including fixed grid models that generally perform poorly at coarse resolution. Fixed grid models, with nested grid representations of the grounding line, are able to generate accurate steady state positions, but can be inaccurate over transients. Only one full-Stokes model was included in the intercomparison, and consequently the accuracy of shelfy stream models as approximations of full-Stokes models remains to be determined in detail, especially during transients.

  14. A system-of-systems modeling methodology for strategic general aviation design decision-making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Won, Henry Thome

    General aviation has long been studied as a means of providing an on-demand "personal air vehicle" that bypasses the traffic at major commercial hubs. This thesis continues this research through development of a system of systems modeling methodology applicable to the selection of synergistic product concepts, market segments, and business models. From the perspective of the conceptual design engineer, the design and selection of future general aviation aircraft is complicated by the definition of constraints and requirements, and the tradeoffs among performance and cost aspects. Qualitative problem definition methods have been utilized, although their accuracy in determining specific requirement and metric values is uncertain. In industry, customers are surveyed, and business plans are created through a lengthy, iterative process. In recent years, techniques have developed for predicting the characteristics of US travel demand based on travel mode attributes, such as door-to-door time and ticket price. As of yet, these models treat the contributing systems---aircraft manufacturers and service providers---as independently variable assumptions. In this research, a methodology is developed which seeks to build a strategic design decision making environment through the construction of a system of systems model. The demonstrated implementation brings together models of the aircraft and manufacturer, the service provider, and most importantly the travel demand. Thus represented is the behavior of the consumers and the reactive behavior of the suppliers---the manufacturers and transportation service providers---in a common modeling framework. The results indicate an ability to guide the design process---specifically the selection of design requirements---through the optimization of "capability" metrics. Additionally, results indicate the ability to find synergetic solutions, that is solutions in which two systems might collaborate to achieve a better result than acting

  15. A model of quantum-like decision-making with applications to psychology and cognitive science

    CERN Document Server

    Khrennikov, Andrei

    2007-01-01

    We consider the following model of decision-making by cognitive systems. We present an algorithm -- quantum-like representation algorithm (QLRA) -- which provides a possibility to represent probabilistic data of any origin by complex probability amplitudes. Our conjecture is that cognitive systems developed the ability to use QLRA. They operate with complex probability amplitudes, mental wave functions. Since the mathematical formalism of QM describes as well (under some generalization) processing of such quantum-like (QL) mental states, the conventional quantum decision-making scheme can be used by the brain. We consider a modification of this scheme to describe decision-making in the presence of two ``incompatible'' mental variables. Such a QL decision-making can be used in situations like Prisoners Dilemma (PD) as well as others corresponding to so called disjunction effect in psychology and cognitive science.

  16. Updated Results for the Wake Vortex Inverse Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robins, Robert E.; Lai, David Y.; Delisi, Donald P.; Mellman, George R.

    2008-01-01

    NorthWest Research Associates (NWRA) has developed an Inverse Model for inverting aircraft wake vortex data. The objective of the inverse modeling is to obtain estimates of the vortex circulation decay and crosswind vertical profiles, using time history measurements of the lateral and vertical position of aircraft vortices. The Inverse Model performs iterative forward model runs using estimates of vortex parameters, vertical crosswind profiles, and vortex circulation as a function of wake age. Iterations are performed until a user-defined criterion is satisfied. Outputs from an Inverse Model run are the best estimates of the time history of the vortex circulation derived from the observed data, the vertical crosswind profile, and several vortex parameters. The forward model, named SHRAPA, used in this inverse modeling is a modified version of the Shear-APA model, and it is described in Section 2 of this document. Details of the Inverse Model are presented in Section 3. The Inverse Model was applied to lidar-observed vortex data at three airports: FAA acquired data from San Francisco International Airport (SFO) and Denver International Airport (DEN), and NASA acquired data from Memphis International Airport (MEM). The results are compared with observed data. This Inverse Model validation is documented in Section 4. A summary is given in Section 5. A user's guide for the inverse wake vortex model is presented in a separate NorthWest Research Associates technical report (Lai and Delisi, 2007a).

  17. Ecological models supporting environmental decision making: a strategy for the future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmolke, Amelie; Thorbek, Pernille; DeAngelis, Donald L; Grimm, Volker

    2010-08-01

    Ecological models are important for environmental decision support because they allow the consequences of alternative policies and management scenarios to be explored. However, current modeling practice is unsatisfactory. A literature review shows that the elements of good modeling practice have long been identified but are widely ignored. The reasons for this might include lack of involvement of decision makers, lack of incentives for modelers to follow good practice, and the use of inconsistent terminologies. As a strategy for the future, we propose a standard format for documenting models and their analyses: transparent and comprehensive ecological modeling (TRACE) documentation. This standard format will disclose all parts of the modeling process to scrutiny and make modeling itself more efficient and coherent. Copyright (c) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Ecological models supporting environmental decision making: a strategy for the future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmolke, Amelie; Thorbek, Pernille; DeAngelis, Donald L.; Grimm, Volker

    2010-01-01

    Ecological models are important for environmental decision support because they allow the consequences of alternative policies and management scenarios to be explored. However, current modeling practice is unsatisfactory. A literature review shows that the elements of good modeling practice have long been identified but are widely ignored. The reasons for this might include lack of involvement of decision makers, lack of incentives for modelers to follow good practice, and the use of inconsistent terminologies. As a strategy for the future, we propose a standard format for documenting models and their analyses: transparent and comprehensive ecological modeling (TRACE) documentation. This standard format will disclose all parts of the modeling process to scrutiny and make modeling itself more efficient and coherent.

  19. Simulation and Modeling Efforts to Support Decision Making in Healthcare Supply Chain Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eman AbuKhousa

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Recently, most healthcare organizations focus their attention on reducing the cost of their supply chain management (SCM by improving the decision making pertaining processes’ efficiencies. The availability of products through healthcare SCM is often a matter of life or death to the patient; therefore, trial and error approaches are not an option in this environment. Simulation and modeling (SM has been presented as an alternative approach for supply chain managers in healthcare organizations to test solutions and to support decision making processes associated with various SCM problems. This paper presents and analyzes past SM efforts to support decision making in healthcare SCM and identifies the key challenges associated with healthcare SCM modeling. We also present and discuss emerging technologies to meet these challenges.

  20. Simulation and modeling efforts to support decision making in healthcare supply chain management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    AbuKhousa, Eman; Al-Jaroodi, Jameela; Lazarova-Molnar, Sanja; Mohamed, Nader

    2014-01-01

    Recently, most healthcare organizations focus their attention on reducing the cost of their supply chain management (SCM) by improving the decision making pertaining processes' efficiencies. The availability of products through healthcare SCM is often a matter of life or death to the patient; therefore, trial and error approaches are not an option in this environment. Simulation and modeling (SM) has been presented as an alternative approach for supply chain managers in healthcare organizations to test solutions and to support decision making processes associated with various SCM problems. This paper presents and analyzes past SM efforts to support decision making in healthcare SCM and identifies the key challenges associated with healthcare SCM modeling. We also present and discuss emerging technologies to meet these challenges.

  1. Issues in Developing a Normative Descriptive Model for Dyadic Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serfaty, D.; Kleinman, D. L.

    1984-01-01

    Most research in modelling human information processing and decision making has been devoted to the case of the single human operator. In the present effort, concepts from the fields of organizational behavior, engineering psychology, team theory and mathematical modelling are merged in an attempt to consider first the case of two cooperating decisionmakers (the Dyad) in a multi-task environment. Rooted in the well-known Dynamic Decision Model (DDM), the normative descriptive approach brings basic cognitive and psychophysical characteristics inherent to human behavior into a team theoretic analytic framework. An experimental paradigm, involving teams in dynamic decision making tasks, is designed to produce the data with which to build the theoretical model.

  2. Dynamics of Entropy in Quantum-like Model of Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Basieva, Irina; Khrennikov, Andrei; Asano, Masanari; Ohya, Masanori; Tanaka, Yoshiharu

    2011-03-01

    We present a quantum-like model of decision making in games of the Prisoner's Dilemma type. By this model the brain processes information by using representation of mental states in complex Hilbert space. Driven by the master equation the mental state of a player, say Alice, approaches an equilibrium point in the space of density matrices. By using this equilibrium point Alice determines her mixed (i.e., probabilistic) strategy with respect to Bob. Thus our model is a model of thinking through decoherence of initially pure mental state. Decoherence is induced by interaction with memory and external environment. In this paper we study (numerically) dynamics of quantum entropy of Alice's state in the process of decision making. Our analysis demonstrates that this dynamics depends nontrivially on the initial state of Alice's mind on her own actions and her prediction state (for possible actions of Bob.)

  3. Decision-Making in Agent-Based Models of Migration: State of the Art and Challenges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klabunde, Anna; Willekens, Frans

    We review agent-based models (ABM) of human migration with respect to their decision-making rules. The most prominent behavioural theories used as decision rules are the random utility theory, as implemented in the discrete choice model, and the theory of planned behaviour. We identify the critical choices that must be made in developing an ABM, namely the modelling of decision processes and social networks. We also discuss two challenges that hamper the widespread use of ABM in the study of migration and, more broadly, demography and the social sciences: (a) the choice and the operationalisation of a behavioural theory (decision-making and social interaction) and (b) the selection of empirical evidence to validate the model. We offer advice on how these challenges might be overcome.

  4. Evaluating the role of behavioral factors and practical constraints in the performance of an agent-based model of farmer decision making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Malawska, Anna Katarzyna; Topping, Christopher John

    2016-01-01

    Farmer decision making models often focus on the behavioral assumptions in the representation of the decision making, applying bounded rationality theory to shift away from the generally criticized profit maximizer approach. Although complex on the behavioral side, such representations are usuall...... of the practical constraints improved the model performance more than the modifications in the behavioral assumptions.......Farmer decision making models often focus on the behavioral assumptions in the representation of the decision making, applying bounded rationality theory to shift away from the generally criticized profit maximizer approach. Although complex on the behavioral side, such representations are usually...... to the real world data and to the results of the previous model stages, and included two model versions differing with assumptions on the farmers' rationality. Thus, we assessed the sensitivity of the model to its behavioral assumptions. The results indicated that contrary to expectations, implementation...

  5. Active learning to understand infectious disease models and improve policy making.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lander Willem

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Modeling plays a major role in policy making, especially for infectious disease interventions but such models can be complex and computationally intensive. A more systematic exploration is needed to gain a thorough systems understanding. We present an active learning approach based on machine learning techniques as iterative surrogate modeling and model-guided experimentation to systematically analyze both common and edge manifestations of complex model runs. Symbolic regression is used for nonlinear response surface modeling with automatic feature selection. First, we illustrate our approach using an individual-based model for influenza vaccination. After optimizing the parameter space, we observe an inverse relationship between vaccination coverage and cumulative attack rate reinforced by herd immunity. Second, we demonstrate the use of surrogate modeling techniques on input-response data from a deterministic dynamic model, which was designed to explore the cost-effectiveness of varicella-zoster virus vaccination. We use symbolic regression to handle high dimensionality and correlated inputs and to identify the most influential variables. Provided insight is used to focus research, reduce dimensionality and decrease decision uncertainty. We conclude that active learning is needed to fully understand complex systems behavior. Surrogate models can be readily explored at no computational expense, and can also be used as emulator to improve rapid policy making in various settings.

  6. Shared Decision-Making Models Acknowledging an Interprofessional Approach: A Theory Analysis to Inform Nursing Practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewis, Krystina B; Stacey, Dawn; Squires, Janet E; Carroll, Sandra

    2016-01-01

    Patient engagement in collaboration with health professionals is essential to deliver quality health care. A shared decision-making (SDM) approach requires that patients are involved in decisions regarding their health. SDM is expanding from the patient-physician dyad to incorporate an interprofessional perspective. Conceptual models can be used to better understand theoretical underpinnings for application in clinical practice. The aim of this article was to conduct a theory analysis of conceptual models using an interprofessional approach to SDM and discuss each model's relevance to nursing practice. Walker and Avant's theory analysis approach was used. Three conceptual models were eligible. For all models, the decision-making process was considered iterative. The development process was described for 1 model. All models were logical, parsimonious, and generalizable. One was supported by empirical testing. No model described how partnerships are enacted to achieve interprofessional SDM. Also, there was limited articulation as to how nurses' roles and contributions differ from other team members. This theory analysis highlights the need for a model that explains how partnerships among interprofessional team members are enacted to better understand the operationalization of interprofessional SDM. Implications for nursing practice at all system levels are offered and supported by the 3 models.

  7. Making the most of what we have: application of extrapolation approaches in wildlife transfer models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Beresford, Nicholas A.; Barnett, Catherine L.; Wells, Claire [NERC Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Lancaster Environment Center, Library Av., Bailrigg, Lancaster, LA1 4AP (United Kingdom); School of Environment and Life Sciences, University of Salford, Manchester, M4 4WT (United Kingdom); Wood, Michael D. [School of Environment and Life Sciences, University of Salford, Manchester, M4 4WT (United Kingdom); Vives i Batlle, Jordi [Belgian Nuclear Research Centre, Boeretang 200, 2400 Mol (Belgium); Brown, Justin E.; Hosseini, Ali [Norwegian Radiation Protection Authority, P.O. Box 55, N-1332 Oesteraas (Norway); Yankovich, Tamara L. [International Atomic Energy Agency, Vienna International Centre, 1400, Vienna (Austria); Bradshaw, Clare [Department of Ecology, Environment and Plant Sciences, Stockholm University, SE-10691 (Sweden); Willey, Neil [Centre for Research in Biosciences, University of the West of England, Coldharbour Lane, Frenchay, Bristol BS16 1QY (United Kingdom)

    2014-07-01

    Radiological environmental protection models need to predict the transfer of many radionuclides to a large number of organisms. There has been considerable development of transfer (predominantly concentration ratio) databases over the last decade. However, in reality it is unlikely we will ever have empirical data for all the species-radionuclide combinations which may need to be included in assessments. To provide default values for a number of existing models/frameworks various extrapolation approaches have been suggested (e.g. using data for a similar organism or element). This paper presents recent developments in two such extrapolation approaches, namely phylogeny and allometry. An evaluation of how extrapolation approaches have performed and the potential application of Bayesian statistics to make best use of available data will also be given. Using a Residual Maximum Likelihood (REML) mixed-model regression we initially analysed a dataset comprising 597 entries for 53 freshwater fish species from 67 sites to investigate if phylogenetic variation in transfer could be identified. The REML analysis generated an estimated mean value for each species on a common scale after taking account of the effect of the inter-site variation. Using an independent dataset, we tested the hypothesis that the REML model outputs could be used to predict radionuclide activity concentrations in other species from the results of a species which had been sampled at a specific site. The outputs of the REML analysis accurately predicted {sup 137}Cs activity concentrations in different species of fish from 27 lakes. Although initially investigated as an extrapolation approach the output of this work is a potential alternative to the highly site dependent concentration ratio model. We are currently applying this approach to a wider range of organism types and different ecosystems. An initial analysis of these results will be presented. The application of allometric, or mass

  8. Generalised Chou-Yang model and recent results

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fazal-e-Aleem [International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Trieste (Italy); Rashid, H. [Punjab Univ., Lahore (Pakistan). Centre for High Energy Physics

    1996-12-31

    It is shown that most recent results of E710 and UA4/2 collaboration for the total cross section and {rho} together with earlier measurements give good agreement with measurements for the differential cross section at 546 and 1800 GeV within the framework of Generalised Chou-Yang model. These results are also compared with the predictions of other models. (author) 16 refs.

  9. Using the ACT-R architecture to specify 39 quantitative process models of decision making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marewski, Julian N.; Mehlhorn, Katja

    Hypotheses about decision processes are often formulated qualitatively and remain silent about the interplay of decision, memorial, and other cognitive processes. At the same time, existing decision models are specified at varying levels of detail, making it difficult to compare them. We provide a

  10. Using the ACT-R architecture to specify 39 quantitative process models of decision making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marewski, Julian N.; Mehlhorn, Katja

    2011-01-01

    Hypotheses about decision processes are often formulated qualitatively and remain silent about the interplay of decision, memorial, and other cognitive processes. At the same time, existing decision models are specified at varying levels of detail, making it difficult to compare them. We provide a m

  11. Evaluation of prediction models for decision-making: beyond calibration and discrimination.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lars Holmberg

    Full Text Available Lars Holmberg and Andrew Vickers discuss the importance of ensuring prediction models lead to better decision making in light of new research into breast, endometrial, and ovarian cancer risk by Ruth Pfeiffer and colleagues. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

  12. Conflict measures in cooperative exchange models of collective decision-making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Assen, Marcel; Stokman, Frans; van Oosten, Reinier

    2003-01-01

    This study focuses on externalities of exchanges of voting positions in collective decision-making. Exchanges are represented by nonconstant two-person cooperative games. It is assumed that the rate of exchange is specified by the Raiffa-Kalai-Smorodinsky solution, and a model is specified to identi

  13. The Use of Touch in Counseling: An Ethical Decision-Making Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calmes, Stephanie A.; Piazza, Nick J.; Laux, John M.

    2013-01-01

    Although some counselors have advocated for the limited use of touch in counseling, others have argued that touch has no place within the counseling relationship. Despite the controversy, the use of touch has been shown to have a number of therapeutic benefits; however, there are few ethical decision-making models that are appropriate for…

  14. A Model for Making Decisions about Ethical Dilemmas in Student Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Robert L.; Liu, Jin; Burgess, Yin

    2017-01-01

    In this mixed-methods study we investigated the development of a generalized ethics decision-making model that can be applied in considering ethical dilemmas related to student assessment. For the study, we developed five scenarios that describe ethical dilemmas associated with student assessment. Survey participants (i.e., educators) completed an…

  15. Reason, Intuition, and Social Justice: Elaborating on Parson's Career Decision-Making Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartung, Paul J.; Blustein, David L.

    2002-01-01

    Nearly a century ago, Frank Parsons established the Vocation Bureau in Boston and spawned the development of the counseling profession. Elaborating on Parsons's socially responsible vision for counseling, the authors examine contemporary perspectives on career decision making that include both rational and alternative models and propose that these…

  16. A Modeling Framework for Supply Chain Simulation: Opportunities for Improved Decision Making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zee, van der D.J.; Vorst, van der J.G.A.J.

    2005-01-01

    Owing to its inherent modeling flexibility, simulation is often regarded as the proper means for supporting decision making on supply chain design. The ultimate success of supply chain simulation, however, is determined by a combination of the analyst's skills, the chain members' involvement, and th

  17. A modeling framework for supply chain simulation : opportunities for improved decision-making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Zee, D.J.; van der Vorst, J.G.A.J.

    2005-01-01

    Owing to its inherent modeling flexibility, simulation is often regarded as the proper means for supporting decision making on supply chain design. The ultimate success of supply chain simulation, however, is determined by a combination of the analyst's skills, the chain members' involvement, and th

  18. Sense-Making, Grief, and the Experience of Violent Loss: Toward a Mediational Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Currier, Joseph M.; Holland, Jason M.; Neimeyer, Robert A.

    2006-01-01

    Bereavement following violent loss by accident, homicide or suicide increases the risk for complications in grieving. This is the first study to examine a constructivist model of grief that proposes that sense-making, or the capacity to construct an understanding of the loss experience, mediates the association between violent death and…

  19. Making Schools the Model for Healthier Environments Toolkit: What It Is

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robert Wood Johnson Foundation, 2012

    2012-01-01

    Healthy students perform better. Poor nutrition and inadequate physical activity can affect not only academic achievement, but also other factors such as absenteeism, classroom behavior, ability to concentrate, self-esteem, cognitive performance, and test scores. This toolkit provides information to help make schools the model for healthier…

  20. Multi-crew Model Analytic Assessment of Landing Performance and Decision-making Demands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milgram, P.; Vanderwijngaart, R.; Veerbeek, H.; Bleeker, O. F.

    1984-01-01

    Some of the relative merits of the PROCRU approach to modelling multi-crew flight deck activity during approach to landing are discussed. On the basis of two realistic flight scenarios, the ability of the model to simulate different vectored approaches is demonstrated. A secondary exemplary analysis of a nominal and an accelerated final approach is performed, illustrating the potential of the expected net gain (ENGP) functions as a measure of decision-making load.

  1. What a Difference a Tag Cloud Makes: Effects of Tasks and Cognitive Abilities on Search Results Interface Use

    CERN Document Server

    Gwizdka, Jacek

    2010-01-01

    The goal of this study is to expand our understanding of the relationships between selected tasks, cognitive abilities and search result interfaces. The underlying objective is to understand how to select search results presentation for tasks and user contexts. Twenty three participants conducted four search tasks of two types and used two interfaces (List and Overview) to refine and examine search results. Clickthrough data were recorded. This controlled study employed a mixed model design with two within-subject factors (task and interface) and two between-subject factors (two cognitive abilities: memory span and verbal closure). Quantitative analyses were carried out by means of the statistical package SPSS. Specifically, multivariate analysis of variance with repeated measures and non-parametric tests were performed on the collected data. The overview of search results appeared to have benefited searchers in several ways. It made them faster; it facilitated formulation of more effective queries and helped...

  2. What Defines "Enough" Information? How Policy Workers Make Judgements and Decisions during Information Seeking: Preliminary Results from an Exploratory Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berryman, Jennifer

    2006-01-01

    Introduction: Reports findings from research in progress investigating judgment and decision making during information seeking in the workplace, in particular, the assessment of enough information. Characteristics of this judgment and the role of context in shaping it are framed against theories of human judgment and decision making. Method:…

  3. Life cycle Prognostic Model Development and Initial Application Results

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jeffries, Brien; Hines, Wesley; Nam, Alan; Sharp, Michael; Upadhyaya, Belle [The University of Tennessee, Knoxville (United States)

    2014-08-15

    In order to obtain more accurate Remaining Useful Life (RUL) estimates based on empirical modeling, a Lifecycle Prognostics algorithm was developed that integrates various prognostic models. These models can be categorized into three types based on the type of data they process. The application of multiple models takes advantage of the most useful information available as the system or component operates through its lifecycle. The Lifecycle Prognostics is applied to an impeller test bed, and the initial results serve as a proof of concept.

  4. Relevance of behavioral and social models to the study of consumer energy decision making and behavior

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Burns, B.A.

    1980-11-01

    This report reviews social and behavioral science models and techniques for their possible use in understanding and predicting consumer energy decision making and behaviors. A number of models and techniques have been developed that address different aspects of the decision process, use different theoretical bases and approaches, and have been aimed at different audiences. Three major areas of discussion were selected: (1) models of adaptation to social change, (2) decision making and choice, and (3) diffusion of innovation. Within these three areas, the contributions of psychologists, sociologists, economists, marketing researchers, and others were reviewed. Five primary components of the models were identified and compared. The components are: (1) situational characteristics, (2) product characteristics, (3) individual characteristics, (4) social influences, and (5) the interaction or decision rules. The explicit use of behavioral and social science models in energy decision-making and behavior studies has been limited. Examples are given of a small number of energy studies which applied and tested existing models in studying the adoption of energy conservation behaviors and technologies, and solar technology.

  5. An Agent-Based Model of Farmer Decision Making in Jordan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Selby, Philip; Medellin-Azuara, Josue; Harou, Julien; Klassert, Christian; Yoon, Jim

    2016-04-01

    We describe an agent based hydro-economic model of groundwater irrigated agriculture in the Jordan Highlands. The model employs a Multi-Agent-Simulation (MAS) framework and is designed to evaluate direct and indirect outcomes of climate change scenarios and policy interventions on farmer decision making, including annual land use, groundwater use for irrigation, and water sales to a water tanker market. Land use and water use decisions are simulated for groups of farms grouped by location and their behavioural and economic similarities. Decreasing groundwater levels, and the associated increase in pumping costs, are important drivers for change within Jordan'S agricultural sector. We describe how this is considered by coupling of agricultural and groundwater models. The agricultural production model employs Positive Mathematical Programming (PMP), a method for calibrating agricultural production functions to observed planted areas. PMP has successfully been used with disaggregate models for policy analysis. We adapt the PMP approach to allow explicit evaluation of the impact of pumping costs, groundwater purchase fees and a water tanker market. The work demonstrates the applicability of agent-based agricultural decision making assessment in the Jordan Highlands and its integration with agricultural model calibration methods. The proposed approach is designed and implemented with software such that it could be used to evaluate a variety of physical and human influences on decision making in agricultural water management.

  6. Decision-Making Models with Sets of Strategies for Applications to Individuals and Groups in Higher Education.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gill, Wanda E.

    Three decision-making models that have applications for college presidents and administrators are reviewed. While both individual and group decision-making are addressed, emphasis is placed on the importance of group decisions on institutional policy planning. The model of Edmund M. Burke (1979) presents specific decision-making strategies in…

  7. Effects of Methadone Maintenance Treatment on Decision-Making Processes in Heroin-Abusers: A Cognitive Modeling Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arash Khodadadi

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available A B S T R A C TIntroduction: Although decision-making processes have become a principal target of study among addiction researchers, few researches are published according to effects of different treatment methods on the cognitive processes underlying decision making up to now. Utilizing cognitive modeling method, in this paper we examine the effects of Methadone maintenance treatment (MMT on cognitive processes underlying decision-making disorders in heroin-abusers. Methods: For this purpose, for the first time, we use the balloon analog risk task (BART to assess the decision-making ability of heroin-abusers before and after treatment and compare it to the non heroin-dependent subjects. Results: Results demonstrate that heroin-abusers show more risky behavior than other groups. But, there is no difference between the performance of heroin-abusers after 6 months of MMT and control group. Modeling subjects’ behavior in BART reveals that poor performance in heroin-abusers is due to reward-dependency and insensitivity to evaluation. Discussion: Results show that 6 months of MMT decreases reward-dependency and increases sensitivity to evaluation.

  8. Seeking for the rational basis of the Median Model: the optimal combination of multi-model ensemble results

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Riccio

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we present an approach for the statistical analysis of multi-model ensemble results. The models considered here are operational long-range transport and dispersion models, also used for the real-time simulation of pollutant dispersion or the accidental release of radioactive nuclides.

    We first introduce the theoretical basis (with its roots sinking into the Bayes theorem and then apply this approach to the analysis of model results obtained during the ETEX-1 exercise. We recover some interesting results, supporting the heuristic approach called "median model", originally introduced in Galmarini et al. (2004a, b.

    This approach also provides a way to systematically reduce (and quantify model uncertainties, thus supporting the decision-making process and/or regulatory-purpose activities in a very effective manner.

  9. Seeking for the rational basis of the median model: the optimal combination of multi-model ensemble results

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Riccio

    2007-04-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we present an approach for the statistical analysis of multi-model ensemble results. The models considered here are operational long-range transport and dispersion models, also used for the real-time simulation of pollutant dispersion or the accidental release of radioactive nuclides.

    We first introduce the theoretical basis (with its roots sinking into the Bayes theorem and then apply this approach to the analysis of model results obtained during the ETEX-1 exercise. We recover some interesting results, supporting the heuristic approach called "median model", originally introduced in Galmarini et al. (2004a, b.

    This approach also provides a way to systematically reduce (and quantify model uncertainties, thus supporting the decision-making process and/or regulatory-purpose activities in a very effective manner.

  10. Decision Making in Reference to Model of Marketing Predictive Analytics – Theory and Practice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Piotr Tarka

    2014-03-01

    understand the inner working of the model. Originality: Authors describe the importance of analytics which enhance the decisions that the company makes as it executes strategies and plans, so that the company can be more effective and achieve better results. The key factor that enables to execute marketing strategies accurately and build competitive advantage in the future includes predictive modeling. The ability to predict probable futures allows us to shape the future, rather than merely survive whatever it brings.

  11. First results from the International Urban Energy Balance Model Comparison: Model Complexity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blackett, M.; Grimmond, S.; Best, M.

    2009-04-01

    A great variety of urban energy balance models has been developed. These vary in complexity from simple schemes that represent the city as a slab, through those which model various facets (i.e. road, walls and roof) to more complex urban forms (including street canyons with intersections) and features (such as vegetation cover and anthropogenic heat fluxes). Some schemes also incorporate detailed representations of momentum and energy fluxes distributed throughout various layers of the urban canopy layer. The models each differ in the parameters they require to describe the site and the in demands they make on computational processing power. Many of these models have been evaluated using observational datasets but to date, no controlled comparisons have been conducted. Urban surface energy balance models provide a means to predict the energy exchange processes which influence factors such as urban temperature, humidity, atmospheric stability and winds. These all need to be modelled accurately to capture features such as the urban heat island effect and to provide key information for dispersion and air quality modelling. A comparison of the various models available will assist in improving current and future models and will assist in formulating research priorities for future observational campaigns within urban areas. In this presentation we will summarise the initial results of this international urban energy balance model comparison. In particular, the relative performance of the models involved will be compared based on their degree of complexity. These results will inform us on ways in which we can improve the modelling of air quality within, and climate impacts of, global megacities. The methodology employed in conducting this comparison followed that used in PILPS (the Project for Intercomparison of Land-Surface Parameterization Schemes) which is also endorsed by the GEWEX Global Land Atmosphere System Study (GLASS) panel. In all cases, models were run

  12. Extending the team component of the Latimer ethical decision-making model for palliative care

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Purkis ME

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Mary Ellen Purkis1, Elizabeth Borycki1,2, Craig Kuziemsky3, Fraser Black4, Denise Cloutier-Fisher5, Lee Ann Fox6, Patricia MacKenzie7, Ann Syme1,8, Coby Tschanz1,41School of Nursing, 2School of Health Information Science, University of Victoria, Victoria, British Columbia; 3Telfer School of Management, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Ontario; 4Victoria Hospice Society, Victoria, British Columbia; 5Department of Geography, University of Victoria, Victoria, British Columbia; 6Kingston General Hospital, Kingston, Ontario; 7School of Social Work, University of Victoria, Victoria, British Columbia; 8British Columbia Cancer Agency, Vancouver Island Centre, Victoria, British Columbia, CanadaBackground: Each year more than 240,000 Canadians die from terminal and chronic illnesses. It is estimated that 62% of those deaths require palliative care. Palliative care is a specialized domain of health professional team practice that requires discipline-specific knowledge, skills, judgment, and expertise in order to address patient hopes, wishes, symptoms, and suffering. With the emergence of palliative care as a specialized area of interdisciplinary practice, new practice models have also emerged, eg, the Latimer ethical decision-making model for palliative care. The purpose of this research was to undertake a descriptive ethnographic field study of palliative care team practices to understand better the interdisciplinary team communication and the issues that arise when members of different health professions work together as a team.Methods: Study data were collected by observing and videotaping palliative care team meetings. Data were then analyzed using direct content analysis.Results: The study findings substantiated many of the team practice concepts outlined in Latimer's model. Palliative care teams engage in a number of processes that address patient symptoms, suffering, hopes, and plans. However, several new findings also emerged from the data that were

  13. How to introduce medical ethics at the bedside - Factors influencing the implementation of an ethical decision-making model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meyer-Zehnder, Barbara; Albisser Schleger, Heidi; Tanner, Sabine; Schnurrer, Valentin; Vogt, Deborah R; Reiter-Theil, Stella; Pargger, Hans

    2017-02-23

    As the implementation of new approaches and procedures of medical ethics is as complex and resource-consuming as in other fields, strategies and activities must be carefully planned to use the available means and funds responsibly. Which facilitators and barriers influence the implementation of a medical ethics decision-making model in daily routine? Up to now, there has been little examination of these factors in this field. A medical ethics decision-making model called METAP was introduced on three intensive care units and two geriatric wards. An evaluation study was performed from 7 months after deployment of the project until two and a half years. Quantitative and qualitative methods including a questionnaire, semi-structured face-to-face and group-interviews were used. Sixty-three participants from different professional groups took part in 33 face-to-face and 9 group interviews, and 122 questionnaires could be analysed. The facilitating factors most frequently mentioned were: acceptance and presence of the model, support given by the medical and nursing management, an existing or developing (explicit) ethics culture, perception of a need for a medical ethics decision-making model, and engaged staff members. Lack of presence and acceptance, insufficient time resources and staff, poor inter-professional collaboration, absence of ethical competence, and not recognizing ethical problems were identified as inhibiting the implementation of the METAP model. However, the results of the questionnaire as well as of explicit inquiry showed that the respondents stated to have had enough time and staff available to use METAP if necessary. Facilitators and barriers of the implementation of a medical ethics decision-making model are quite similar to that of medical guidelines. The planning for implementing an ethics model or guideline can, therefore, benefit from the extensive literature and experience concerning the implementation of medical guidelines. Lack of time and

  14. The Role of Hybrid Make-to-Stock (MTS) - Make-to-Order (MTO) and Economic Order Quantity (EOQ) Inventory Control Models in Food and Beverage Processing Industry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Najhan Mohd Nagib, Ahmad; Naufal Adnan, Ahmad; Ismail, Azianti; Halim, Nurul Hayati Abdul; Syuhadah Khusaini, Nurul

    2016-11-01

    The inventory model had been utilized since the early 1900s. The implementation of the inventory management model is generally to ensure that an organisation is able to fulfil customer's demand at the lowest possible cost to improve profitability. This paper focuses on reviewing previous published papers regarding inventory control model mainly in the food and beverage processing industry. The author discusses four inventory models, which are the make-to-stock (MTS), make-to-order (MTO), economic order quantity (EOQ), and hybrid of MTS-MTO models. The issues raised by the researchers on the above techniques as well as the elements need to be considered upon selection have been discussed in this paper. The main objective of the study is to highlight the important role played by these inventory control models in the food and beverage processing industry.

  15. A novel computer based expert decision making model for prostate cancer disease management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richman, Martin B; Forman, Ernest H; Bayazit, Yildirim; Einstein, Douglas B; Resnick, Martin I; Stovsky, Mark D

    2005-12-01

    We propose a strategic, computer based, prostate cancer decision making model based on the analytic hierarchy process. We developed a model that improves physician-patient joint decision making and enhances the treatment selection process by making this critical decision rational and evidence based. Two groups (patient and physician-expert) completed a clinical study comparing an initial disease management choice with the highest ranked option generated by the computer model. Participants made pairwise comparisons to derive priorities for the objectives and subobjectives related to the disease management decision. The weighted comparisons were then applied to treatment options to yield prioritized rank lists that reflect the likelihood that a given alternative will achieve the participant treatment goal. Aggregate data were evaluated by inconsistency ratio analysis and sensitivity analysis, which assessed the influence of individual objectives and subobjectives on the final rank list of treatment options. Inconsistency ratios less than 0.05 were reliably generated, indicating that judgments made within the model were mathematically rational. The aggregate prioritized list of treatment options was tabulated for the patient and physician groups with similar outcomes for the 2 groups. Analysis of the major defining objectives in the treatment selection decision demonstrated the same rank order for the patient and physician groups with cure, survival and quality of life being more important than controlling cancer, preventing major complications of treatment, preventing blood transfusion complications and limiting treatment cost. Analysis of subobjectives, including quality of life and sexual dysfunction, produced similar priority rankings for the patient and physician groups. Concordance between initial treatment choice and the highest weighted model option differed between the groups with the patient group having 59% concordance and the physician group having only 42

  16. Customer Decision Making in Web Services with an Integrated P6 Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Zhaohao; Sun, Junqing; Meredith, Grant

    Customer decision making (CDM) is an indispensable factor for web services. This article examines CDM in web services with a novel P6 model, which consists of the 6 Ps: privacy, perception, propensity, preference, personalization and promised experience. This model integrates the existing 6 P elements of marketing mix as the system environment of CDM in web services. The new integrated P6 model deals with the inner world of the customer and incorporates what the customer think during the DM process. The proposed approach will facilitate the research and development of web services and decision support systems.

  17. Reconceptualizing the Model of Multiple Dimensions of Identity: The Role of Meaning-Making Capacity in the Construction of Multiple Identities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abes, Elisa S.; Jones, Susan R.; McEwen, Marylu K.

    2007-01-01

    We reconceptualize Jones and McEwen's (2000) model of multiple dimensions of identity by incorporating meaning making, based on the results of Abes and Jones's (2004) study of lesbian college students. Narratives of three students who utilize different orders of Kegan's (1994) meaning making (formulaic, transitional, and foundational, as described…

  18. Modeling, control and optimization of water systems systems engineering methods for control and decision making tasks

    CERN Document Server

    2016-01-01

    This book provides essential background knowledge on the development of model-based real-world solutions in the field of control and decision making for water systems. It presents system engineering methods for modelling surface water and groundwater resources as well as water transportation systems (rivers, channels and pipelines). The models in turn provide information on both the water quantity (flow rates, water levels) of surface water and groundwater and on water quality. In addition, methods for modelling and predicting water demand are described. Sample applications of the models are presented, such as a water allocation decision support system for semi-arid regions, a multiple-criteria control model for run-of-river hydropower plants, and a supply network simulation for public services.

  19. Meteorological Uncertainty of atmospheric Dispersion model results (MUD)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Havskov Sørensen, Jens; Amstrup, Bjarne; Feddersen, Henrik

    The MUD project addresses assessment of uncertainties of atmospheric dispersion model predictions, as well as optimum presentation to decision makers. Previously, it has not been possible to estimate such uncertainties quantitatively, but merely to calculate the 'most likely' dispersion scenario...... of the meteorological model results. These uncertainties stem from e.g. limits in meteorological obser-vations used to initialise meteorological forecast series. By perturbing the initial state of an NWP model run in agreement with the available observa-tional data, an ensemble of meteorological forecasts is produced....... However, recent developments in numerical weather prediction (NWP) include probabilistic forecasting techniques, which can be utilised also for atmospheric dispersion models. The ensemble statistical methods developed and applied to NWP models aim at describing the inherent uncertainties...

  20. Meteorological Uncertainty of atmospheric Dispersion model results (MUD)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Havskov Sørensen, Jens; Amstrup, Bjarne; Feddersen, Henrik

    The MUD project addresses assessment of uncertainties of atmospheric dispersion model predictions, as well as possibilities for optimum presentation to decision makers. Previously, it has not been possible to estimate such uncertainties quantitatively, but merely to calculate the ‘most likely...... uncertainties of the meteorological model results. These uncertainties stem from e.g. limits in meteorological observations used to initialise meteorological forecast series. By perturbing e.g. the initial state of an NWP model run in agreement with the available observational data, an ensemble......’ dispersion scenario. However, recent developments in numerical weather prediction (NWP) include probabilistic forecasting techniques, which can be utilised also for long-range atmospheric dispersion models. The ensemble statistical methods developed and applied to NWP models aim at describing the inherent...

  1. Mathematical Existence Results for the Doi-Edwards Polymer Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chupin, Laurent

    2017-01-01

    In this paper, we present some mathematical results on the Doi-Edwards model describing the dynamics of flexible polymers in melts and concentrated solutions. This model, developed in the late 1970s, has been used and extensively tested in modeling and simulation of polymer flows. From a mathematical point of view, the Doi-Edwards model consists in a strong coupling between the Navier-Stokes equations and a highly nonlinear constitutive law. The aim of this article is to provide a rigorous proof of the well-posedness of the Doi-Edwards model, namely that it has a unique regular solution. We also prove, which is generally much more difficult for flows of viscoelastic type, that the solution is global in time in the two dimensional case, without any restriction on the smallness of the data.

  2. An Intuitionistic Fuzzy Logic Models for Multicriteria Decision Making Under Uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jana, Biswajit; Mohanty, Sachi Nandan

    2016-06-01

    The purpose of this paper is to enhance the applicability of the fuzzy sets for developing mathematical models for decision making under uncertainty, In general a decision making process consist of four stages, namely collection of information from various sources, compile the information, execute the information and finally take the decision/action. Only fuzzy sets theory is capable to quantifying the linguistic expression to mathematical form in complex situation. Intuitionistic fuzzy set (IFSs) which reflects the fact that the degree of non membership is not always equal to one minus degree of membership. There may be some degree of hesitation. Thus, there are some situations where IFS theory provides a more meaningful and applicable to cope with imprecise information present for solving multiple criteria decision making problem. This paper emphasis on IFSs, which is help for solving real world problem in uncertainty situation.

  3. An Intuitionistic Fuzzy Logic Models for Multicriteria Decision Making Under Uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jana, Biswajit; Mohanty, Sachi Nandan

    2017-04-01

    The purpose of this paper is to enhance the applicability of the fuzzy sets for developing mathematical models for decision making under uncertainty, In general a decision making process consist of four stages, namely collection of information from various sources, compile the information, execute the information and finally take the decision/action. Only fuzzy sets theory is capable to quantifying the linguistic expression to mathematical form in complex situation. Intuitionistic fuzzy set (IFSs) which reflects the fact that the degree of non membership is not always equal to one minus degree of membership. There may be some degree of hesitation. Thus, there are some situations where IFS theory provides a more meaningful and applicable to cope with imprecise information present for solving multiple criteria decision making problem. This paper emphasis on IFSs, which is help for solving real world problem in uncertainty situation.

  4. Modeling Results for the ITER Cryogenic Fore Pump

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Dongsheng

    The work presented here is the analysis and modeling of the ITER-Cryogenic Fore Pump (CFP), also called Cryogenic Viscous Compressor (CVC). Unlike common cryopumps that are usually used to create and maintain vacuum, the cryogenic fore pump is designed for ITER to collect and compress hydrogen isotopes during the regeneration process of the torus cryopumps. Different from common cryopumps, the ITER-CFP works in the viscous flow regime. As a result, both adsorption boundary conditions and transport phenomena contribute unique features to the pump performance. In this report, the physical mechanisms of cryopumping are studied, especially the diffusion-adsorption process and these are coupled with the standard equations of species, momentum and energy balance, as well as the equation of state. Numerical models are developed, which include highly coupled non-linear conservation equations of species, momentum, and energy and equation of state. Thermal and kinetic properties are treated as functions of temperature, pressure, and composition of the gas fluid mixture. To solve such a set of equations, a novel numerical technique, identified as the Group-Member numerical technique is proposed. This document presents three numerical models: a transient model, a steady state model, and a hemisphere (or molecular flow) model. The first two models are developed based on analysis of the raw experimental data while the third model is developed as a preliminary study. The modeling results are compared with available experiment data for verification. The models can be used for cryopump design, and can also benefit problems, such as loss of vacuum in a cryomodule or cryogenic desublimation. The scientific and engineering investigation being done here builds connections between Mechanical Engineering and other disciplines, such as Chemical Engineering, Physics, and Chemistry.

  5. Making sense to modelers: Presenting UML class model differences in prose

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Störrle, Harald

    2013-01-01

    Understanding the difference between two models, such as different versions of a design, can be difficult. It is a commonly held belief in the model differencing community that the best way of presenting a model difference is by using graph or tree-based visualizations. We disagree and present an...

  6. Modelling in Primary School: Constructing Conceptual Models and Making Sense of Fractions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shahbari, Juhaina Awawdeh; Peled, Irit

    2017-01-01

    This article describes sixth-grade students' engagement in two model-eliciting activities offering students the opportunity to construct mathematical models. The findings show that students utilized their knowledge of fractions including conceptual and procedural knowledge in constructing mathematical models for the given situations. Some students…

  7. Comparison of NASCAP modelling results with lumped circuit analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stang, D. B.; Purvis, C. K.

    1980-01-01

    Engineering design tools that can be used to predict the development of absolute and differential potentials by realistic spacecraft under geomagnetic substorm conditions are described. Two types of analyses are in use: (1) the NASCAP code, which computes quasistatic charging of geometrically complex objects with multiple surface materials in three dimensions; (2) lumped element equivalent circuit models that are used for analyses of particular spacecraft. The equivalent circuit models require very little computation time, however, they cannot account for effects, such as the formation of potential barriers, that are inherently multidimensional. Steady state potentials of structure and insulation are compared with those resulting from the equivalent circuit model.

  8. The East model: recent results and new progresses

    CERN Document Server

    Faggionato, Alessandra; Roberto, Cyril; Toninelli, Cristina

    2012-01-01

    The East model is a particular one dimensional interacting particle system in which certain transitions are forbidden according to some constraints depending on the configuration of the system. As such it has received particular attention in the physics literature as a special case of a more general class of systems referred to as kinetically constrained models, which play a key role in explaining some features of the dynamics of glasses. In this paper we give an extensive overview of recent rigorous results concerning the equilibrium and non-equilibrium dynamics of the East model together with some new improvements.

  9. Constraining hybrid inflation models with WMAP three-year results

    CERN Document Server

    Cardoso, A

    2006-01-01

    We reconsider the original model of quadratic hybrid inflation in light of the WMAP three-year results and study the possibility of obtaining a spectral index of primordial density perturbations, $n_s$, smaller than one from this model. The original hybrid inflation model naturally predicts $n_s\\geq1$ in the false vacuum dominated regime but it is also possible to have $n_s<1$ when the quadratic term dominates. We therefore investigate whether there is also an intermediate regime compatible with the latest constraints, where the scalar field value during the last 50 e-folds of inflation is less than the Planck scale.

  10. Particle Decision Making Processes in Fractured Media: The Battle Between Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sund, N. L.; Parashar, R.; Pham, H. V.

    2016-12-01

    During a random walk through a discrete fracture network, a particle moves at a constant velocity through a fracture segment and when it arrives at a fracture intersection it chooses a path, changes velocity, and repeats the process. The set of possible velocities the particle may choose depends on which intersection it is at, inducing a correlation between its current and next velocity. This process of traveling at a constant velocity then choosing a new velocity is also a good approximation to transport in (non-fractured) porous media.For times greater than the Taylor time scale (L^2/D, where L is the length scale over which a particle must travel to sample the full range of velocities in the system and D is the diffusion coefficient), the particle's decision making process can be neglected. In fractured and highly heterogeneous porous media, however, this length scale (and time scale consequently) can be prohibitively long. Even for field scale applications, it's possible that this decision making process may not be neglected. Several upscaled models have been developed that either explicitly or implicitly model this decision making process, including continuous time random walk with a coupled space and time step distribution, multi-rate mass transfer models, the spatial Markov model, and a hybrid approach based on the Boltzmann transport equation. We ask: how do these models perform in predicting transport at scales of interest? To answer this question, we upscale transport using a variety of models in simple 2D discrete fracture networks, where transport through each fracture is purely advective (no longitudinal diffusion), yet fully mixed (infinite transverse diffusion) and there is no mass exchange between the fracture network and the rock matrix it is embedded in. This simplified testing ground reveals whether the question of "how" to model the decision process is as important as "whether" to model it.

  11. Recent MEG Results and Predictive SO(10) Models

    CERN Document Server

    Fukuyama, Takeshi

    2011-01-01

    Recent MEG results of a search for the lepton flavor violating (LFV) muon decay, $\\mu \\to e \\gamma$, show 3 events as the best value for the number of signals in the maximally likelihood fit. Although this result is still far from the evidence/discovery in statistical point of view, it might be a sign of a certain new physics beyond the Standard Model. As has been well-known, supersymmetric (SUSY) models can generate the $\\mu \\to e \\gamma$ decay rate within the search reach of the MEG experiment. A certain class of SUSY grand unified theory (GUT) models such as the minimal SUSY SO(10) model (we call this class of models "predictive SO(10) models") can unambiguously determine fermion Yukawa coupling matrices, in particular, the neutrino Dirac Yukawa matrix. Based on the universal boundary conditions for soft SUSY breaking parameters at the GUT scale, we calculate the rate of the $\\mu \\to e \\gamma$ process by using the completely determined Dirac Yukawa matrix in two examples of predictive SO(10) models. If we ...

  12. Standard Model physics results from ATLAS and CMS

    CERN Document Server

    Dordevic, Milos

    2015-01-01

    The most recent results of Standard Model physics studies in proton-proton collisions at 7 TeV and 8 TeV center-of-mass energy based on data recorded by ATLAS and CMS detectors during the LHC Run I are reviewed. This overview includes studies of vector boson production cross section and properties, results on V+jets production with light and heavy flavours, latest VBS and VBF results, measurement of diboson production with an emphasis on ATGC and QTGC searches, as well as results on inclusive jet cross sections with strong coupling constant measurement and PDF constraints. The outlined results are compared to the prediction of the Standard Model.

  13. Consumer Decision-Making Styles Extension to Trust-Based Product Comparison Site Usage Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Radoslaw Macik

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The paper describes an implementation of extended consumer decision-making styles concept in explaining consumer choices made in product comparison site environment in the context of trust-based information technology acceptance model. Previous research proved that trust-based acceptance model is useful in explaining purchase intention and anticipated satisfaction in product comparison site environment, as an example of online decision shopping aids. Trust to such aids is important in explaining their usage by consumers. The connections between consumer decision-making styles, product and sellers opinions usage, cognitive and affective trust toward online product comparison site, as well as choice outcomes (purchase intention and brand choice are explored trough structural equation models using PLS-SEM approach, using a sample of 461 young consumers. Research confirmed the validity of research model in explaining product comparison usage, and some consumer decision-making styles influenced consumers’ choices and purchase intention. Product and sellers reviews usage were partially mediating mentioned relationships.

  14. Consistency and consensus models for group decision-making with uncertain 2-tuple linguistic preference relations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Zhen; Guo, Chonghui

    2016-08-01

    Due to the uncertainty of the decision environment and the lack of knowledge, decision-makers may use uncertain linguistic preference relations to express their preferences over alternatives and criteria. For group decision-making problems with preference relations, it is important to consider the individual consistency and the group consensus before aggregating the preference information. In this paper, consistency and consensus models for group decision-making with uncertain 2-tuple linguistic preference relations (U2TLPRs) are investigated. First of all, a formula which can construct a consistent U2TLPR from the original preference relation is presented. Based on the consistent preference relation, the individual consistency index for a U2TLPR is defined. An iterative algorithm is then developed to improve the individual consistency of a U2TLPR. To help decision-makers reach consensus in group decision-making under uncertain linguistic environment, the individual consensus and group consensus indices for group decision-making with U2TLPRs are defined. Based on the two indices, an algorithm for consensus reaching in group decision-making with U2TLPRs is also developed. Finally, two examples are provided to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithms.

  15. Musicians and music making as a model for the study of brain plasticity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schlaug, Gottfried

    2015-01-01

    Playing a musical instrument is an intense, multisensory, and motor experience that usually commences at an early age and requires the acquisition and maintenance of a range of sensory and motor skills over the course of a musician's lifetime. Thus, musicians offer an excellent human model for studying behavioral-cognitive as well as brain effects of acquiring, practicing, and maintaining these specialized skills. Research has shown that repeatedly practicing the association of motor actions with specific sound and visual patterns (musical notation), while receiving continuous multisensory feedback will strengthen connections between auditory and motor regions (e.g., arcuate fasciculus) as well as multimodal integration regions. Plasticity in this network may explain some of the sensorimotor and cognitive enhancements that have been associated with music training. Furthermore, the plasticity of this system as a result of long term and intense interventions suggest the potential for music making activities (e.g., forms of singing) as an intervention for neurological and developmental disorders to learn and relearn associations between auditory and motor functions such as vocal motor functions.

  16. Local Tiled Deep Networks for Recognition of Vehicle Make and Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yongbin Gao

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Vehicle analysis involves license-plate recognition (LPR, vehicle-type classification (VTC, and vehicle make and model recognition (MMR. Among these tasks, MMR plays an important complementary role in respect to LPR. In this paper, we propose a novel framework for MMR using local tiled deep networks. The frontal views of vehicle images are first extracted and fed into the local tiled deep networks for training and testing. A local tiled convolutional neural network (LTCNN is proposed to alter the weight sharing scheme of CNN with local tiled structure. The LTCNN unties the weights of adjacent units and then ties the units k steps from each other within a local map. This architecture provides the translational, rotational, and scale invariance as well as locality. In addition, to further deal with the colour and illumination variation, we applied the histogram oriented gradient (HOG to the frontal view of images prior to the LTCNN. The experimental results show that our LTCNN framework achieved a 98% accuracy rate in terms of vehicle MMR.

  17. Musicians and music making as a model for the study of brain plasticity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schlaug, Gottfried

    2015-01-01

    Playing a musical instrument is an intense, multisensory, and motor experience that usually commences at an early age and requires the acquisition and maintenance of a range of sensory and motor skills over the course of a musician’s lifetime. Thus, musicians offer an excellent human model for studying behavioral-cognitive as well as brain effects of acquiring, practicing, and maintaining these specialized skills. Research has shown that repeatedly practicing the association of motor actions with specific sound and visual patterns (musical notation), while receiving continuous multisensory feedback will strengthen connections between auditory and motor regions (e.g., arcuate fasciculus) as well as multimodal integration regions. Plasticity in this network may explain some of the sensorimotor and cognitive enhancements that have been associated with music training. Furthermore, the plasticity of this system as a result of long term and intense interventions suggest the potential for music making activities (e.g., forms of singing) as an intervention for neurological and developmental disorders to learn and relearn associations between auditory and motor functions such as vocal motor functions. PMID:25725909

  18. Toward understanding Malaysian fishermen's decision making on the use of fishing technology: a mental model approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamzah, Azimi; Krauss, Steven E; Shaffril, Hayrol A M; Suandi, Turiman; Ismail, Ismi A; Abu Samah, Bahaman

    2014-10-01

    The vast majority of Malaysia's fishermen are located in rural areas, specifically in the Western and Eastern coastal regions of Peninsular Malaysia and the Sabah and Sarawak central zones. In these areas, the fishing industry is relied upon as a major economic contributor to the region's residents. Despite the widespread application of various modern technologies into the fishing industry (i.e., GPS, sonar, echo sounder, remote sensing), and the Malaysian government's efforts to encourage their adoption, many small-scale fishermen in the country's rural areas continue to rely on traditional fishing methods. This refusal to embrace new technologies has resulted in significant losses in fish yields and needed income, and has raised many questions regarding the inputs to decision making of the fishermen. Drawing on multiple literatures, in this article we argue for the use of a mental model approach to gain an in-depth understanding of rural Malaysian fishermen's choices of technology adoption according to four main constructs--prior experience, knowledge, expertise and beliefs or values. To provide needed inputs to agricultural specialists and related policy makers for the development of relevant plans of action, this article aims to provide a way forward for others to understand dispositional barriers to technology adoption among fishermen who use traditional methods in non-Western contexts. © 2013 International Union of Psychological Science.

  19. Toward an operational model of decision making, emotional regulation, and mental health impact.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collura, Thomas Francis; Zalaquett, Ronald P; Bonnstetter, Carlos Joyce; Chatters, Seria J

    2014-01-01

    Current brain research increasingly reveals the underlying mechanisms and processes of human behavior, cognition, and emotion. In addition to being of interest to a wide range of scientists, educators, and professionals, as well as laypeople, brain-based models are of particular value in a clinical setting. Psychiatrists, psychologists, counselors, and other mental health professionals are in need of operational models that integrate recent findings in the physical, cognitive, and emotional domains, and offer a common language for interdisciplinary understanding and communication. Based on individual traits, predispositions, and responses to stimuli, we can begin to identify emotional and behavioral pathways and mental processing patterns. The purpose of this article is to present a brain-path activation model to understand individual differences in decision making and psychopathology. The first section discusses the role of frontal lobe electroencephalography (EEG) asymmetry, summarizes state- and trait-based models of decision making, and provides a more complex analysis that supplements the traditional simple left-right brain model. Key components of the new model are the introduction of right hemisphere parallel and left hemisphere serial scanning in rendering decisions, and the proposition of pathways that incorporate both past experiences as well as future implications into the decision process. Main attributes of each decision-making mechanism are provided. The second section applies the model within the realm of clinical mental health as a tool to understand specific human behavior and pathology. Applications include general and chronic anxiety, depression, paranoia, risk taking, and the pathways employed when well-functioning operational integration is observed. Finally, specific applications such as meditation and mindfulness are offered to facilitate positive functioning.

  20. Relationship Marketing results: proposition of a cognitive mapping model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iná Futino Barreto

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Objective - This research sought to develop a cognitive model that expresses how marketing professionals understand the relationship between the constructs that define relationship marketing (RM. It also tried to understand, using the obtained model, how objectives in this field are achieved. Design/methodology/approach – Through cognitive mapping, we traced 35 individual mental maps, highlighting how each respondent understands the interactions between RM elements. Based on the views of these individuals, we established an aggregate mental map. Theoretical foundation – The topic is based on a literature review that explores the RM concept and its main elements. Based on this review, we listed eleven main constructs. Findings – We established an aggregate mental map that represents the RM structural model. Model analysis identified that CLV is understood as the final result of RM. We also observed that the impact of most of the RM elements on CLV is brokered by loyalty. Personalization and quality, on the other hand, proved to be process input elements, and are the ones that most strongly impact others. Finally, we highlight that elements that punish customers are much less effective than elements that benefit them. Contributions - The model was able to insert core elements of RM, but absent from most formal models: CLV and customization. The analysis allowed us to understand the interactions between the RM elements and how the end result of RM (CLV is formed. This understanding improves knowledge on the subject and helps guide, assess and correct actions.

  1. Interactive Web service choice-making based on extended QoS model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2006-01-01

    Quality of Service (QoS) is a key factor in Web service advertising, choosing and runtime monitoring. Web service QoS is multi-faceted, fuzzy and dynamic. Current researches focus on implementation level performance assurance, ignoring domain specific or application level metrics which are also very important to service users. Industry Web service standards lack QoS expression. The support for QoS based service choice-making is very limited. We proposed an extended Web service QoS model based on configurable fuzzy synthetic evaluation system. Web service QoS is evaluated dynamically according to the service context. A QoS requirement description model is also given for service QoS requirement definition. An interactive Web service choice-making process is described, which takes QoS as a key factor when choosing from functionally equivalent services.

  2. Decision-making method for railway emergency based on combination weighting and cloud model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Xiaoqin; Wang, Fuzhang; Wang, Pu

    2017-01-01

    Aiming at the problems of randomness and fuzziness of railway emergency, this paper introduces a decision-making method of railway emergency based on combination weighting and cloud model. Firstly, In order to enhance the subjective and objective consistency of combined weights, the adjustment equations of weight coefficient are established with the Euclidean distance, then combined weights are calculated by means of improved analytic hierarchy process(IAHP) and entropy weight method. Secondly, the decision-making information of experts is converted into the cloud parameters of indexes with cloud model, and the cloud parameters of alternatives are obtained by integrating the combined weights and cloud parameters of indexes. Thirdly, the best alternative is obtained by analyzing and comparing the cloud parameters or cloud images of alternatives. Finally, the effectiveness and feasibility of the method are verified by a case.

  3. From Genes to Morphogenetic Movements: How Cell-level Modeling Makes such Connections Possible

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brodland, G. Wayne

    2006-03-01

    New understanding provided by computational modeling makes it possible to identify, in detail, the sequence of events by which gene expression gives rise to specific morphogenetic movements. Convergent extension (CE), an important developmental process in which embryonic tissues undergo self-driven narrowing in one in-plane direction and expansion in the other, is one such example. CE is triggered by gene expression and, in amphibian gastrulae, involves cephalocaudal (CC) gradients of the morphogens Xbra and Chordin and signalling molecules that include planar cell polarity (PCP) and Wnt/Ca2+ (Nature 2004, 430: 305-306). When these pathways have established suitable biochemical conditions, cellular protrusions called lamellipodia, which previously arose with random orientations, form preferentially in the mediolateral (ML) direction. To investigate whether lamellipodium action has the mechanical capacity to drive cell intercalation and its attendant cell reshaping, the cell-level finite element model of Chen and Brodland (ASME J. Biomech. Eng., 2000, 122: 394-401) was modified so that lamellipodia could originate from randomly selected cells, connect to next-neighboring cells in the ML direction and then contract. The simulations show that lamellipodia with these characteristics can, indeed, drive CE and that adjacent tissue must resist ML narrowing in order for characteristically elongated cells to result, predictions that have been confirmed experimentally. When these meso-scale findings are integrated with tissue- and whole-embryo mechanics, multi-scale ``mechanical pathways'' become evident. These pathways, in turn, interface directly with known biochemical pathways to produce an unbroken causal sequence from gene expression to specific morphogentic movements.

  4. Residents values in a rational decision-making model: an interest in academics in emergency medicine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burkhardt, John Christian; Smith-Coggins, Rebecca; Santen, Sally

    2016-10-01

    Academic physicians train the next generation of doctors. It is important to understand the factors that lead residents to choose an academic career to continue to effectively recruit residents who will join the national medical faculty. A decision-making theory-driven, large scale assessment of this process has not been previously undertaken. To examine the factors that predict an Emergency resident's interest in pursuing an academic career at the conclusion of training. This study employs the ABEM Longitudinal Survey (n = 365). A logistic regression model was estimated using an interest in an academic career in residency as the dependent variable. Independent variables include gender, under-represented minority status, survey cohort, number of dependent children, possession of an advanced degree, ongoing research, publications, and the appeal of science, independence, and clinical work in choosing EM. Logistic regression resulted in a statistically significant model (p < 0.001). Residents who chose EM due to the appeal of science, had peer-reviewed publications and ongoing research were more likely to be interested in an academic career at the end of residency (p < 0.05). An increased number of children (p < 0.05) was negatively associated with an interest in academics. Individual resident career interests, research productivity, and lifestyle can help predict an interest in pursuing an academic career. Recruitment and enrichment of residents who have similar values and behaviors should be considered in programs interested in generating more graduates who enter an academic career.

  5. 77 FR 20648 - Certain Digital Models, Digital Data, and Treatment Plans for Use in Making Incremental Dental...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-04-05

    ... COMMISSION Certain Digital Models, Digital Data, and Treatment Plans for Use in Making Incremental Dental... of certain digital models, digital data, and treatment plans for use in making incremental dental... importation, or the sale within the United States after importation of certain digital models, digital...

  6. A response-time approach to comparing generalized rational and take-the-best models of decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bergert, F Bryan; Nosofsky, Robert M

    2007-01-01

    The authors develop and test generalized versions of take-the-best (TTB) and rational (RAT) models of multiattribute paired-comparison inference. The generalized models make allowances for subjective attribute weighting, probabilistic orders of attribute inspection, and noisy decision making. A key new test involves a response-time (RT) approach. TTB predicts that RT is determined solely by the expected time required to locate the 1st discriminating attribute, whereas RAT predicts that RT is determined by the difference in summed evidence between the 2 alternatives. Critical test pairs are used that partially decouple these 2 factors. Under conditions in which ideal observer TTB and RAT strategies yield equivalent decisions, both the RT results and the estimated attribute weights suggest that the vast majority of subjects adopted the generalized TTB strategy. The RT approach is also validated in an experimental condition in which use of a RAT strategy is essentially forced upon subjects.

  7. Value of the distant future: Model-independent results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katz, Yuri A.

    2017-01-01

    This paper shows that the model-independent account of correlations in an interest rate process or a log-consumption growth process leads to declining long-term tails of discount curves. Under the assumption of an exponentially decaying memory in fluctuations of risk-free real interest rates, I derive the analytical expression for an apt value of the long run discount factor and provide a detailed comparison of the obtained result with the outcome of the benchmark risk-free interest rate models. Utilizing the standard consumption-based model with an isoelastic power utility of the representative economic agent, I derive the non-Markovian generalization of the Ramsey discounting formula. Obtained analytical results allowing simple calibration, may augment the rigorous cost-benefit and regulatory impact analysis of long-term environmental and infrastructure projects.

  8. Marginal production in the Gulf of Mexico - II. Model results

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kaiser, Mark J.; Yu, Yunke [Center for Energy Studies, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA 70803 (United States)

    2010-08-15

    In the second part of this two-part article on marginal production in the Gulf of Mexico, we estimate the number of committed assets in water depth less than 1000 ft that are expected to be marginal over a 60-year time horizon. We compute the expected quantity and value of the production and gross revenue streams of the gulf's committed asset inventory circa. January 2007 using a probabilistic model framework. Cumulative hydrocarbon production from the producing inventory is estimated to be 1056 MMbbl oil and 13.3 Tcf gas. Marginal production from the committed asset inventory is expected to contribute 4.1% of total oil production and 5.4% of gas production. A meta-evaluation procedure is adapted to present the results of sensitivity analysis. Model results are discussed along with a description of the model framework and limitations of the analysis. (author)

  9. Exact results for car accidents in a traffic model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Ding-wei

    1998-07-01

    Within the framework of a recent model for car accidents on single-lane highway traffic, we study analytically the probability of the occurrence of car accidents. Exact results are obtained. Various scaling behaviours are observed. The linear dependence of the occurrence of car accidents on density is understood as the dominance of a single velocity in the distribution.

  10. Making eco logic and models work : An integrative approach to lake ecosystem modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kuiper, Jan Jurjen

    2016-01-01

    Dynamical ecosystem models are important tools that can help ecologists understand complex systems, and turn understanding into predictions of how these systems respond to external changes. This thesis revolves around PCLake, an integrated ecosystem model of shallow lakes that is used by both

  11. Making eco logic and models work : An integrative approach to lake ecosystem modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kuiper, Jan Jurjen

    2016-01-01

    Dynamical ecosystem models are important tools that can help ecologists understand complex systems, and turn understanding into predictions of how these systems respond to external changes. This thesis revolves around PCLake, an integrated ecosystem model of shallow lakes that is used by both scient

  12. Making eco logic and models work : An integrative approach to lake ecosystem modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kuiper, Jan Jurjen

    2016-01-01

    Dynamical ecosystem models are important tools that can help ecologists understand complex systems, and turn understanding into predictions of how these systems respond to external changes. This thesis revolves around PCLake, an integrated ecosystem model of shallow lakes that is used by both scient

  13. Using multi-species occupancy models in structured decision making on managed lands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sauer, John R.; Blank, Peter J.; Zipkin, Elise F.; Fallon, Jane E.; Fallon, Frederick W.

    2013-01-01

    Land managers must balance the needs of a variety of species when manipulating habitats. Structured decision making provides a systematic means of defining choices and choosing among alternative management options; implementation of a structured decision requires quantitative approaches to predicting consequences of management on the relevant species. Multi-species occupancy models provide a convenient framework for making structured decisions when the management objective is focused on a collection of species. These models use replicate survey data that are often collected on managed lands. Occupancy can be modeled for each species as a function of habitat and other environmental features, and Bayesian methods allow for estimation and prediction of collective responses of groups of species to alternative scenarios of habitat management. We provide an example of this approach using data from breeding bird surveys conducted in 2008 at the Patuxent Research Refuge in Laurel, Maryland, evaluating the effects of eliminating meadow and wetland habitats on scrub-successional and woodland-breeding bird species using summed total occupancy of species as an objective function. Removal of meadows and wetlands decreased value of an objective function based on scrub-successional species by 23.3% (95% CI: 20.3–26.5), but caused only a 2% (0.5, 3.5) increase in value of an objective function based on woodland species, documenting differential effects of elimination of meadows and wetlands on these groups of breeding birds. This approach provides a useful quantitative tool for managers interested in structured decision making.

  14. Sensorimotor learning biases choice behavior: a learning neural field model for decision making.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christian Klaes

    Full Text Available According to a prominent view of sensorimotor processing in primates, selection and specification of possible actions are not sequential operations. Rather, a decision for an action emerges from competition between different movement plans, which are specified and selected in parallel. For action choices which are based on ambiguous sensory input, the frontoparietal sensorimotor areas are considered part of the common underlying neural substrate for selection and specification of action. These areas have been shown capable of encoding alternative spatial motor goals in parallel during movement planning, and show signatures of competitive value-based selection among these goals. Since the same network is also involved in learning sensorimotor associations, competitive action selection (decision making should not only be driven by the sensory evidence and expected reward in favor of either action, but also by the subject's learning history of different sensorimotor associations. Previous computational models of competitive neural decision making used predefined associations between sensory input and corresponding motor output. Such hard-wiring does not allow modeling of how decisions are influenced by sensorimotor learning or by changing reward contingencies. We present a dynamic neural field model which learns arbitrary sensorimotor associations with a reward-driven Hebbian learning algorithm. We show that the model accurately simulates the dynamics of action selection with different reward contingencies, as observed in monkey cortical recordings, and that it correctly predicted the pattern of choice errors in a control experiment. With our adaptive model we demonstrate how network plasticity, which is required for association learning and adaptation to new reward contingencies, can influence choice behavior. The field model provides an integrated and dynamic account for the operations of sensorimotor integration, working memory and action

  15. Investigating whether it is optimal to make replenishments simultaneously in dual source model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Abginehchi, Soheil; Larsen, Christian

    be relaxed. We study a dual source system with non-identical suppliers and model the problem as a semi-Markov decision model, allowing the decision maker the choice whether he will simultaneously issue two orders to both suppliers or he will issue the orders to suppliers at two different times.......In multiple sourcing, when supplier lead times are stochastic it makes sense to split any replenishment order into several smaller orders to pool lead time risks. In literature it is always assumed these orders are issued simultaneously to the suppliers. Here we let this simultaneousness assumption...

  16. What defines 'enough' information? How policy workers make judgements and decisions during information seeking: preliminary results from an exploratory study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J.M. Berryman

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction. Reports findings from research in progress investigating judgment and decision making during information seeking in the workplace, in particular, the assessment of enough information. Characteristics of this judgment and the role of context in shaping it are framed against theories of human judgment and decision making. Method. Thirty-three semi-structured interviews were conducted with public sector policy workers in Australia. Two interviews were carried out, the first with individual participants and the second, a joint interview with two participants. Interviews were taped and transcribed and inductive data analysis carried out. Findings. Findings discussed in this paper focus on contextual factors that frame policy workers' judgment and decision making while information seeking, factors including ill-structured problems, shifting goals, time stress and action-feedback loops. Also revealed was the importance of developing a framework, against which the judgment of enough information can be made, and the fluid and iterative nature of these judgments. Conclusion. The contextual factors reported show similarities with those identified by naturalistic decision making researchers, suggesting this new field of decision theory has much to offer researchers into information seeking in context.

  17. Assessment of Galileo modal test results for mathematical model verification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trubert, M.

    1984-01-01

    The modal test program for the Galileo Spacecraft was completed at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in the summer of 1983. The multiple sine dwell method was used for the baseline test. The Galileo Spacecraft is a rather complex 2433 kg structure made of a central core on which seven major appendages representing 30 percent of the total mass are attached, resulting in a high modal density structure. The test revealed a strong nonlinearity in several major modes. This nonlinearity discovered in the course of the test necessitated running additional tests at the unusually high response levels of up to about 21 g. The high levels of response were required to obtain a model verification valid at the level of loads for which the spacecraft was designed. Because of the high modal density and the nonlinearity, correlation between the dynamic mathematical model and the test results becomes a difficult task. Significant changes in the pre-test analytical model are necessary to establish confidence in the upgraded analytical model used for the final load verification. This verification, using a test verified model, is required by NASA to fly the Galileo Spacecraft on the Shuttle/Centaur launch vehicle in 1986.

  18. Optimal decision-making model of spatial sampling for survey of China's land with remotely sensed data

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LI Lianfa; WANG Jinfeng; LIU Jiyuan

    2005-01-01

    Abstract In the remote sensing survey of the country land, cost and accuracy are a pair of conflicts, for which spatial sampling is a preferable solution with the aim of an optimal balance between economic input and accuracy of results, or in other words, acquirement of higher accuracy at less cost. Counter to drawbacks of previous application models, e.g. lack of comprehensive and quantitative-comparison, the optimal decision-making model of spatial sampling is proposed. This model first acquires the possible accuracy-cost diagrams of multiple schemes through initial spatial exploration, then regresses them and standardizes them into a unified reference frame, and finally produces the relatively optimal sampling scheme by using the discrete decision-making function (built by this paper) and comparing them in combination with the diagrams. According to the test result in the survey of the arable land using remotely sensed data, the Sandwich model, while applied in the survey of the thin-feature and cultivated land areas with aerial photos, can better realize the goal of the best balance between investment and accuracy. With this case and other cases, it is shown that the optimal decision-making model of spatial sampling is a good choice in the survey of the farm areas using remote sensing, with its distinguished benefit of higher precision at less cost or vice versa. In order to extensively apply the model in the surveys of natural resources, including arable farm areas, this paper proposes the prototype of development using the component technology, that could considerably improve the analysis efficiency by insetting program components within the software environment of GIS and RS.

  19. Modelling ADHD: A review of ADHD theories through their predictions for computational models of decision-making and reinforcement learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ziegler, Sigurd; Pedersen, Mads L; Mowinckel, Athanasia M; Biele, Guido

    2016-12-01

    Attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is characterized by altered decision-making (DM) and reinforcement learning (RL), for which competing theories propose alternative explanations. Computational modelling contributes to understanding DM and RL by integrating behavioural and neurobiological findings, and could elucidate pathogenic mechanisms behind ADHD. This review of neurobiological theories of ADHD describes predictions for the effect of ADHD on DM and RL as described by the drift-diffusion model of DM (DDM) and a basic RL model. Empirical studies employing these models are also reviewed. While theories often agree on how ADHD should be reflected in model parameters, each theory implies a unique combination of predictions. Empirical studies agree with the theories' assumptions of a lowered DDM drift rate in ADHD, while findings are less conclusive for boundary separation. The few studies employing RL models support a lower choice sensitivity in ADHD, but not an altered learning rate. The discussion outlines research areas for further theoretical refinement in the ADHD field.

  20. Modeling vertical loads in pools resulting from fluid injection. [BWR

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lai, W.; McCauley, E.W.

    1978-06-15

    Table-top model experiments were performed to investigate pressure suppression pool dynamics effects due to a postulated loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA) for the Peachbottom Mark I boiling water reactor containment system. The results guided subsequent conduct of experiments in the /sup 1///sub 5/-scale facility and provided new insight into the vertical load function (VLF). Model experiments show an oscillatory VLF with the download typically double-spiked followed by a more gradual sinusoidal upload. The load function contains a high frequency oscillation superimposed on a low frequency one; evidence from measurements indicates that the oscillations are initiated by fluid dynamics phenomena.

  1. Supply Chain Network Optimization Based on Fuzzy Multiobjective Centralized Decision-Making Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xinyi Fu

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Supply chain cooperation strategy believes that the integration of the operation process can produce value for customers, optimize the supply chain of the connection between the vertical nodes, and constantly strengthen the performance of the advantages, so as to achieve mutual benefit and win-win results. Under fuzzy uncertain environment and centralized decision-making mode, we study multiobjective decision-making optimization, which focuses on equilibrium and compensation of multiobjective problems; that is to say, the proper adjustment of the individual goal satisfaction level will make other goals’ satisfaction levels change greatly. Through coordination among the multiobjectives, supply chain system will achieve global optimum. Finally, a simulation experiment from Shaoxing textile case is used to verify its efficiency and effectiveness.

  2. Initial CGE Model Results Summary Exogenous and Endogenous Variables Tests

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Edwards, Brian Keith [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Boero, Riccardo [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Rivera, Michael Kelly [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2017-08-07

    The following discussion presents initial results of tests of the most recent version of the National Infrastructure Simulation and Analysis Center Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model developed by Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). The intent of this is to test and assess the model’s behavioral properties. The test evaluated whether the predicted impacts are reasonable from a qualitative perspective. This issue is whether the predicted change, be it an increase or decrease in other model variables, is consistent with prior economic intuition and expectations about the predicted change. One of the purposes of this effort is to determine whether model changes are needed in order to improve its behavior qualitatively and quantitatively.

  3. Modeling mercury biomagnification (South River, Virginia, USA) to inform river management decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tom, Kyle R; Newman, Michael C; Schmerfeld, John

    2010-04-01

    Mercury trophic transfer in the South River (VA, USA) was modeled to guide river remediation decision making. Sixteen different biota types were collected at six sites within 23 river miles. Mercury biomagnification was modeled using a general biomagnification model based on delta(15)N and distance from the historic mercury release. Methylmercury trophic transfer was clearer than that for total Hg and, therefore, was used to build the predictive model (r(2) (prediction) = 0.76). The methylmercury biomagnification factors were similar among sites, but model intercept did increase with distance down river. Minimum Akaike's Information Criterion Estimation (MAICE) justified the incorporation of distance in the model. A model with a very similar biomagnification factor to the South River (95% confidence intervals [CI] = 0.38-0.52) was produced for a second contaminated Virginia river, the North Fork Holston River (95% CI = 0.41-0.55). Percent of total Hg that was methylmercury increased monotonically with trophic position. Trophic models based on delta(15)N were adequate for predicting changes in mercury concentrations in edible fish under different remediation scenarios.

  4. Clinical decision-making to facilitate appropriate patient management in chiropractic practice: 'the 3-questions model'

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amorin-Woods Lyndon G

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background A definitive diagnosis in chiropractic clinical practice is frequently elusive, yet decisions around management are still necessary. Often, a clinical impression is made after the exclusion of serious illness or injury, and care provided within the context of diagnostic uncertainty. Rather than focussing on labelling the condition, the clinician may choose to develop a defendable management plan since the response to treatment often clarifies the diagnosis. Discussion This paper explores the concept and elements of defensive problem-solving practice, with a view to developing a model of agile, pragmatic decision-making amenable to real-world application. A theoretical framework that reflects the elements of this approach will be offered in order to validate the potential of a so called '3-Questions Model'; Summary Clinical decision-making is considered to be a key characteristic of any modern healthcare practitioner. It is, thus, prudent for chiropractors to re-visit the concept of defensible practice with a view to facilitate capable clinical decision-making and competent patient examination skills. In turn, the perception of competence and trustworthiness of chiropractors within the wider healthcare community helps integration of chiropractic services into broader healthcare settings.

  5. Clinical decision-making to facilitate appropriate patient management in chiropractic practice: 'the 3-questions model'.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amorin-Woods, Lyndon G; Parkin-Smith, Gregory F

    2012-03-14

    A definitive diagnosis in chiropractic clinical practice is frequently elusive, yet decisions around management are still necessary. Often, a clinical impression is made after the exclusion of serious illness or injury, and care provided within the context of diagnostic uncertainty. Rather than focussing on labelling the condition, the clinician may choose to develop a defendable management plan since the response to treatment often clarifies the diagnosis. This paper explores the concept and elements of defensive problem-solving practice, with a view to developing a model of agile, pragmatic decision-making amenable to real-world application. A theoretical framework that reflects the elements of this approach will be offered in order to validate the potential of a so called '3-Questions Model'; Clinical decision-making is considered to be a key characteristic of any modern healthcare practitioner. It is, thus, prudent for chiropractors to re-visit the concept of defensible practice with a view to facilitate capable clinical decision-making and competent patient examination skills. In turn, the perception of competence and trustworthiness of chiropractors within the wider healthcare community helps integration of chiropractic services into broader healthcare settings.

  6. [Patient participation in medical decision making within an integrated health care system in Germany: results of a controlled cohort study].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hölzel, L P; Vollmer, M; Kriston, L; Siegel, A; Härter, M

    2012-11-01

    An integrated health care project called "Gesundes Kinzigtal" was conducted in a rural area in Germany. As part of the project, physicians were trained and other measures were taken to enhance patient involvement in medical decision making. As part of the external evaluation, various effects regarding patient involvement in medical decision making, patient involvement and information preference, decision confidence, patient satisfaction with ambulatory care and patient quality of life were examined. The data were gathered by means of a questionnaire on an annual basis between 2007 and 2009. Effects were compared between patients who were participating in the integrated care project and two control groups. Analyses are based on the data of 1,205 patients. Over time all outcomes decreased slightly, except for information preference and physical quality of life. No statistically significant intervention effects on patient involvement in medical decision making or any other outcome variable could be found. The intensity of the training was presumably too low to establish an enduring change in the physician-patient interaction.

  7. Simulating lightning into the RAMS model: implementation and preliminary results

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Federico

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper shows the results of a tailored version of a previously published methodology, designed to simulate lightning activity, implemented into the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS. The method gives the flash density at the resolution of the RAMS grid-scale allowing for a detailed analysis of the evolution of simulated lightning activity. The system is applied in detail to two case studies occurred over the Lazio Region, in Central Italy. Simulations are compared with the lightning activity detected by the LINET network. The cases refer to two thunderstorms of different intensity. Results show that the model predicts reasonably well both cases and that the lightning activity is well reproduced especially for the most intense case. However, there are errors in timing and positioning of the convection, whose magnitude depends on the case study, which mirrors in timing and positioning errors of the lightning distribution. To assess objectively the performance of the methodology, standard scores are presented for four additional case studies. Scores show the ability of the methodology to simulate the daily lightning activity for different spatial scales and for two different minimum thresholds of flash number density. The performance decreases at finer spatial scales and for higher thresholds. The comparison of simulated and observed lighting activity is an immediate and powerful tool to assess the model ability to reproduce the intensity and the evolution of the convection. This shows the importance of the use of computationally efficient lightning schemes, such as the one described in this paper, in forecast models.

  8. Using multiple criteria decision making models for ranking customers of bank network based on loyalty properties in weighted RFM model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fayegh Zaheri

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available One of the most basic requirements of financial institutes, governmental and private banks in the present age is to have a good understanding on customers' behaviors of bank network. It helps banks determine customer loyalty, which yields profit making for bank. On the other hand, it is important to know about credit risk of customers with the goal of decreasing loss and better allocation of bank resources to applicants of receiving loan. According to nature of customer loyalty discussion and credit risk, these two issues are separately studied. The present article deals with studying customer loyalty and prioritizing based one private bank in Kurdistan province. The proposed model of this paper studies customer loyalty by using Recency Frequency Monetary (RFM factor for prioritizing customer based on loyalty properties and Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS. In addition, in order to calculate the relative importance coefficient or weight of loyalty properties in RFM method, the pair wise comparison matrix based on analytical hierarchy process (AHP is used. Results show that in the present study, necessarily customers having higher average monetary value during a specified time period does not have much higher priority compared with other customers.

  9. Modeling air quality over China: Results from the Panda project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katinka Petersen, Anna; Bouarar, Idir; Brasseur, Guy; Granier, Claire; Xie, Ying; Wang, Lili; Wang, Xuemei

    2015-04-01

    China faces strong air pollution problems related to rapid economic development in the past decade and increasing demand for energy. Air quality monitoring stations often report high levels of particle matter and ozone all over the country. Knowing its long-term health impacts, air pollution became then a pressing problem not only in China but also in other Asian countries. The PANDA project is a result of cooperation between scientists from Europe and China who joined their efforts for a better understanding of the processes controlling air pollution in China, improve methods for monitoring air quality and elaborate indicators in support of European and Chinese policies. A modeling system of air pollution is being setup within the PANDA project and include advanced global (MACC, EMEP) and regional (WRF-Chem, EMEP) meteorological and chemical models to analyze and monitor air quality in China. The poster describes the accomplishments obtained within the first year of the project. Model simulations for January and July 2010 are evaluated with satellite measurements (SCIAMACHY NO2 and MOPITT CO) and in-situ data (O3, CO, NOx, PM10 and PM2.5) observed at several surface stations in China. Using the WRF-Chem model, we investigate the sensitivity of the model performance to emissions (MACCity, HTAPv2), horizontal resolution (60km, 20km) and choice of initial and boundary conditions.

  10. Cross layers decision making and fusion model in layered sensing systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khoshnaw, Abdulqadir; Zein-Sabatto, Saleh; Malkani, Mohan

    2012-06-01

    Layered sensing systems involve operation of several layers of sensing with different capabilities integrated into one whole system. The integrated layers of sensing must share information and local decisions across layers for better situation awareness. This research focused on the development of a model for decision making and fusion at the information level in layered sensing systems using the cloud model for uncertainty processing. In this research, the addition of a new processing level to the Joint Directors of Laboratories (JDL) processing model is proposed. The new processing level is called "Information Assessment, Fusion, and Control (IAFC)". Through this level, the different layers of a layered sensing system evaluate information about a given situation in terms of threat level and make a decision. The information assessment and control processing module were able to assess the threat level of a situation accurately and exchange assessments in order to determine the overall situation's threat level among all layers. The uncertain decisions were fused together to a unified decision using the cloud model of uncertainty processing methodology. Using this methodology, a cognitive element was added to the process of information assessment module leading to more accurate situation awareness.

  11. Exact results for the one dimensional asymmetric exclusion model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Derrida, B.; Evans, M. R.; Hakim, V.; Pasquier, V.

    1993-11-01

    The asymmetric exclusion model describes a system of particles hopping in a preferred direction with hard core repulsion. These particles can be thought of as charged particles in a field, as steps of an interface, as cars in a queue. Several exact results concerning the steady state of this system have been obtained recently. The solution consists of representing the weights of the configurations in the steady state as products of non-commuting matrices.

  12. Exact results for the one dimensional asymmetric exclusion model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Derrida, B.; Evans, M.R.; Pasquier, V. [CEA Centre d`Etudes de Saclay, 91 - Gif-sur-Yvette (France). Service de Physique Theorique; Hakim, V. [Ecole Normale Superieure, 75 - Paris (France)

    1993-12-31

    The asymmetric exclusion model describes a system of particles hopping in a preferred direction with hard core repulsion. These particles can be thought of as charged particles in a field, as steps of an interface, as cars in a queue. Several exact results concerning the steady state of this system have been obtained recently. The solution consists of representing the weights of the configurations in the steady state as products of non-commuting matrices. (author).

  13. APPLYING LOGISTIC REGRESSION MODEL TO THE EXAMINATION RESULTS DATA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Goutam Saha

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The binary logistic regression model is used to analyze the school examination results(scores of 1002 students. The analysis is performed on the basis of the independent variables viz.gender, medium of instruction, type of schools, category of schools, board of examinations andlocation of schools, where scores or marks are assumed to be dependent variables. The odds ratioanalysis compares the scores obtained in two examinations viz. matriculation and highersecondary.

  14. Analytical results for a three-phase traffic model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Ding-wei

    2003-10-01

    We study analytically a cellular automaton model, which is able to present three different traffic phases on a homogeneous highway. The characteristics displayed in the fundamental diagram can be well discerned by analyzing the evolution of density configurations. Analytical expressions for the traffic flow and shock speed are obtained. The synchronized flow in the intermediate-density region is the result of aggressive driving scheme and determined mainly by the stochastic noise.

  15. Robust Decision Making: The Cognitive and Computational Modeling of Team Problem Solving for Decision Making under Complex and Dynamic Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-07-14

    these   experimental  and  computational  studies  demonstrate  a   sizable  impact  of  team  communication  structure  and...43) was conducted to examine the effects of examples on design processes, an issue that has been the focus of a good bit of attention . The analysis...computational modelling and human experimental investigations, have provided some converging findings about factors that determine the efficacy of team

  16. Second decision-making method of the fuzzy optimal model and its application

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    刘金禄; 陈守煜

    2004-01-01

    In the process of concept design offshore platforms, it is necessary to select the best from feasible alternatives through comparison and filtering. Fuzzy optimal selection in multiple stages is an useful method in engineering decisionmaking, but in some cases, it is difficult to make a distinction between the first alternative and the second. Therefore it is necessary to improve the fuzzy optimal selection method with multiple stages. In this paper, using fuzzy cross iteration optimal modeling, the weight sensitivity analysis is made firstly. Then a second decision-making method to solve fuzzy optimal problems is proposed. Its basic principle is the inverse reasoning in mathematics. This method expands the applied range of fuzzy optimal selection. Finally this method is used in the concept design of offshore platform. A case study shows that this method is scientific, reasonable and easy to use in practice.

  17. Risk factor selection in rate making: EM adaptive LASSO for zero-inflated poisson regression models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Yanlin; Xiang, Liya; Zhu, Zhongyi

    2014-06-01

    Risk factor selection is very important in the insurance industry, which helps precise rate making and studying the features of high-quality insureds. Zero-inflated data are common in insurance, such as the claim frequency data, and zero-inflation makes the selection of risk factors quite difficult. In this article, we propose a new risk factor selection approach, EM adaptive LASSO, for a zero-inflated Poisson regression model, which combines the EM algorithm and adaptive LASSO penalty. Under some regularity conditions, we show that, with probability approaching 1, important factors are selected and the redundant factors are excluded. We investigate the finite sample performance of the proposed method through a simulation study and the analysis of car insurance data from SAS Enterprise Miner database.

  18. Dual Processes in Decision Making and Developmental Neuroscience: A Fuzzy-Trace Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reyna, Valerie F; Brainerd, Charles J

    2011-09-01

    From Piaget to the present, traditional and dual-process theories have predicted improvement in reasoning from childhood to adulthood, and improvement has been observed. However, developmental reversals-that reasoning biases emerge with development -have also been observed in a growing list of paradigms. We explain how fuzzy-trace theory predicts both improvement and developmental reversals in reasoning and decision making. Drawing on research on logical and quantitative reasoning, as well as on risky decision making in the laboratory and in life, we illustrate how the same small set of theoretical principles apply to typical neurodevelopment, encompassing childhood, adolescence, and adulthood, and to neurological conditions such as autism and Alzheimer's disease. For example, framing effects-that risk preferences shift when the same decisions are phrases in terms of gains versus losses-emerge in early adolescence as gist-based intuition develops. In autistic individuals, who rely less on gist-based intuition and more on verbatim-based analysis, framing biases are attenuated (i.e., they outperform typically developing control subjects). In adults, simple manipulations based on fuzzy-trace theory can make framing effects appear and disappear depending on whether gist-based intuition or verbatim-based analysis is induced. These theoretical principles are summarized and integrated in a new mathematical model that specifies how dual modes of reasoning combine to produce predictable variability in performance. In particular, we show how the most popular and extensively studied model of decision making-prospect theory-can be derived from fuzzy-trace theory by combining analytical (verbatim-based) and intuitive (gist-based) processes.

  19. Challenges in validating model results for first year ice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melsom, Arne; Eastwood, Steinar; Xie, Jiping; Aaboe, Signe; Bertino, Laurent

    2017-04-01

    In order to assess the quality of model results for the distribution of first year ice, a comparison with a product based on observations from satellite-borne instruments has been performed. Such a comparison is not straightforward due to the contrasting algorithms that are used in the model product and the remote sensing product. The implementation of the validation is discussed in light of the differences between this set of products, and validation results are presented. The model product is the daily updated 10-day forecast from the Arctic Monitoring and Forecasting Centre in CMEMS. The forecasts are produced with the assimilative ocean prediction system TOPAZ. Presently, observations of sea ice concentration and sea ice drift are introduced in the assimilation step, but data for sea ice thickness and ice age (or roughness) are not included. The model computes the age of the ice by recording and updating the time passed after ice formation as sea ice grows and deteriorates as it is advected inside the model domain. Ice that is younger than 365 days is classified as first year ice. The fraction of first-year ice is recorded as a tracer in each grid cell. The Ocean and Sea Ice Thematic Assembly Centre in CMEMS redistributes a daily product from the EUMETSAT OSI SAF of gridded sea ice conditions which include "ice type", a representation of the separation of regions between those infested by first year ice, and those infested by multi-year ice. The ice type is parameterized based on data for the gradient ratio GR(19,37) from SSMIS observations, and from the ASCAT backscatter parameter. This product also includes information on ambiguity in the processing of the remote sensing data, and the product's confidence level, which have a strong seasonal dependency.

  20. A real-time interactive simulation framework for watershed decision making using numerical models and virtual environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, ShangHong; Xia, ZhongXi; Wang, TaiWei

    2013-06-01

    Decision support systems based on a virtual environment (VE) are becoming a popular platform in watershed simulation and management. Simulation speed and data visualization is of great significance to decision making, especially in urgent events. Real-time interaction during the simulation process is also very important for dealing with different conditions and for making timely decisions. In this study, a VE-based real-time interactive simulation framework (VERTISF) is developed and applied to simulation and management of the Dujiangyan Project in China. In VERTISF development, a virtual reality platform and numerical models were hosted on different computers and connected by a network to improve simulation speed. Different types of numerical models were generalized in a unified architecture based on time step, and interactive control was realized by modifying model boundary conditions at each time step. The "instruction-response" method and data interpolation were used to synchronize virtual environment visualization and numerical model calculation. Implementation of the framework was based on modular software design; various computer languages can be used to develop the appropriate module. Since only slight modification was needed for current numerical model integration in the framework, VERTISF was easy to extend. Results showed that VERTISF could take full advantage of hardware development, and it was a simple and effective solution for complex watershed simulation.

  1. Helping Italian science teachers to make earth and climate active lessons. Results of 3 years support with the ICLEEN project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cattadori, M.

    2013-12-01

    It has been demonstrated that in Italy Earth and Climate System Sciences Education (ESS) is one of the scientific disciplines where science teachers show a greatest need in terms of professional support. Among the causes that have been reported we should mention: the predominance of science teachers with a degree in biological disciplines rather then geo-logical or physical topics, and the high interdisciplinarity of certain topics, in particular those related to the climate system. Furthermore, it was found that ESS topics are predominant in the science curricula of those grades in which have been reported the major students dropout rates during the whole italian school cycle . In this context, in 2010, the MUSE, the Museum of Science of Trento (Italy), created a web-based service named I-Cleen (Inquring on Climate and Energy www.icleen.muse.it). This is a tool aimed at promoting the collaboration among science teachers in order to share resources and enhance the professional collaboration by means of participatory methods and models belonging to the world of open source and open content. The main instrument of the I-CLEEN project is an online repository (with metadata compliant with the DCMI and LOM international standards) of teaching resources focused on Earth and Climate Sciences all published under the Creative Commons license Attribution 3.0 and therefore, belonging to the model of OER (Open Educational Resources). The service has been designed, developed and managed by a team consisting of very experiencing science teachers and scientists from the Museum and other partners research institutions. The editorial work is carried out online utilizing a specific platform made with LifeRay, a CMS (Content Management System) software that is open source and manageable in a single Java-frameworked environment using the dbase, the website, the editorial process and several web 2.0 services. The project has been subjected to two distinct testing activities in

  2. Integrated model for pricing, delivery time setting, and scheduling in make-to-order environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garmdare, Hamid Sattari; Lotfi, M. M.; Honarvar, Mahboobeh

    2017-05-01

    Usually, in make-to-order environments which work only in response to the customer's orders, manufacturers for maximizing the profits should offer the best price and delivery time for an order considering the existing capacity and the customer's sensitivity to both the factors. In this paper, an integrated approach for pricing, delivery time setting and scheduling of new arrival orders are proposed based on the existing capacity and accepted orders in system. In the problem, the acquired market demands dependent on the price and delivery time of both the manufacturer and its competitors. A mixed-integer non-linear programming model is presented for the problem. After converting to a pure non-linear model, it is validated through a case study. The efficiency of proposed model is confirmed by comparing it to both the literature and the current practice. Finally, sensitivity analysis for the key parameters is carried out.

  3. Time-Series Modeling and Prediction of Global Monthly Absolute Temperature for Environmental Decision Making

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YE Liming; YANG Guixia; Eric VAN RANST; TANG Huajun

    2013-01-01

    A generalized,structural,time series modeling framework was developed to analyze the monthly records of absolute surface temperature,one of the most important environmental parameters,using a deterministicstochastic combined (DSC) approach.Although the development of the framework was based on the characterization of the variation patterns of a global dataset,the methodology could be applied to any monthly absolute temperature record.Deterministic processes were used to characterize the variation patterns of the global trend and the cyclic oscillations of the temperature signal,involving polynomial functions and the Fourier method,respectively,while stochastic processes were employed to account for any remaining patterns in the temperature signal,involving seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) models.A prediction of the monthly global surface temperature during the second decade of the 21st century using the DSC model shows that the global temperature will likely continue to rise at twice the average rate of the past 150 years.The evaluation of prediction accuracy shows that DSC models perform systematically well against selected models of other authors,suggesting that DSC models,when coupled with other ecoenvironmental models,can be used as a supplemental tool for short-term (~10-year) environmental planning and decision making.

  4. 78 FR 46610 - Certain Digital Models, Digital Data, and Treatment Plans for Use in Making Incremental Dental...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-08-01

    ... From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office INTERNATIONAL TRADE COMMISSION Certain Digital Models, Digital Data, and Treatment Plans for Use in Making Incremental Dental... models, digital data, and treatment plans for use in making incremental dental appliances, the...

  5. 78 FR 46611 - Certain Digital Models, Digital Data, and Treatment Plans for Use in Making Incremental Dental...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-08-01

    ... From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office INTERNATIONAL TRADE COMMISSION Certain Digital Models, Digital Data, and Treatment Plans for Use in Making Incremental Dental... models, digital data, and treatment plans for use in making incremental dental appliances, the...

  6. A Response-Time Approach to Comparing Generalized Rational and Take-the-Best Models of Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bergert, F. Bryan; Nosofsky, Robert M.

    2007-01-01

    The authors develop and test generalized versions of take-the-best (TTB) and rational (RAT) models of multiattribute paired-comparison inference. The generalized models make allowances for subjective attribute weighting, probabilistic orders of attribute inspection, and noisy decision making. A key new test involves a response-time (RT)…

  7. Results of Satellite Brightness Modeling Using Kringing Optimized Interpolation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weeden, C.; Hejduk, M.

    At the 2005 AMOS conference, Kriging Optimized Interpolation (KOI) was presented as a tool to model satellite brightness as a function of phase angle and solar declination angle (J.M Okada and M.D. Hejduk). Since November 2005, this method has been used to support the tasking algorithm for all optical sensors in the Space Surveillance Network (SSN). The satellite brightness maps generated by the KOI program are compared to each sensor's ability to detect an object as a function of the brightness of the background sky and angular rate of the object. This will determine if the sensor can technically detect an object based on an explicit calculation of the object's probability of detection. In addition, recent upgrades at Ground-Based Electro Optical Deep Space Surveillance Sites (GEODSS) sites have increased the amount and quality of brightness data collected and therefore available for analysis. This in turn has provided enough data to study the modeling process in more detail in order to obtain the most accurate brightness prediction of satellites. Analysis of two years of brightness data gathered from optical sensors and modeled via KOI solutions are outlined in this paper. By comparison, geo-stationary objects (GEO) were tracked less than non-GEO objects but had higher density tracking in phase angle due to artifices of scheduling. A statistically-significant fit to a deterministic model was possible less than half the time in both GEO and non-GEO tracks, showing that a stochastic model must often be used alone to produce brightness results, but such results are nonetheless serviceable. Within the Kriging solution, the exponential variogram model was the most frequently employed in both GEO and non-GEO tracks, indicating that monotonic brightness variation with both phase and solar declination angle is common and testifying to the suitability to the application of regionalized variable theory to this particular problem. Finally, the average nugget value, or

  8. Titan Chemistry: Results From A Global Climate Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Eric; West, R. A.; Friedson, A. J.; Oyafuso, F.

    2008-09-01

    We present results from a 3-dimesional global climate model of Titan's atmosphere and surface. This model, a modified version of NCAR's CAM-3 (Community Atmosphere Model), has been optimized for analysis of Titan's lower atmosphere and surface. With the inclusion of forcing from Saturn's gravitational tides, interaction from the surface, transfer of longwave and shortwave radiation, and parameterization of haze properties, constrained by Cassini observations, a dynamical field is generated, which serves to advect 14 long-lived species. The concentrations of these chemical tracers are also affected by 82 chemical reactions and the photolysis of 21 species, based on the Wilson and Atreya (2004) model, that provide sources and sinks for the advected species along with 23 additional non-advected radicals. In addition, the chemical contribution to haze conversion is parameterized along with the microphysical processes that serve to distribute haze opacity throughout the atmosphere. References Wilson, E.H. and S.K. Atreya, J. Geophys. Res., 109, E06002, 2004.

  9. Why Does a Kronecker Model Result in Misleading Capacity Estimates?

    CERN Document Server

    Raghavan, Vasanthan; Sayeed, Akbar M

    2008-01-01

    Many recent works that study the performance of multi-input multi-output (MIMO) systems in practice assume a Kronecker model where the variances of the channel entries, upon decomposition on to the transmit and the receive eigen-bases, admit a separable form. Measurement campaigns, however, show that the Kronecker model results in poor estimates for capacity. Motivated by these observations, a channel model that does not impose a separable structure has been recently proposed and shown to fit the capacity of measured channels better. In this work, we show that this recently proposed modeling framework can be viewed as a natural consequence of channel decomposition on to its canonical coordinates, the transmit and/or the receive eigen-bases. Using tools from random matrix theory, we then establish the theoretical basis behind the Kronecker mismatch at the low- and the high-SNR extremes: 1) Sparsity of the dominant statistical degrees of freedom (DoF) in the true channel at the low-SNR extreme, and 2) Non-regul...

  10. New DNS and modeling results for turbulent pipe flow

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johansson, Arne; El Khoury, George; Grundestam, Olof; Schlatter, Philipp; Brethouwer, Geert; Linne Flow Centre Team

    2013-11-01

    The near-wall region of turbulent pipe and channel flows (as well as zero-pressure gradient boundary layers) have been shown to exhibit a very high degree of similarity in terms of all statistical moments and many other features, while even the mean velocity profile in the two cases exhibits significant differences between in the outer region. The wake part of the profile, i.e. the deviation from the log-law, in the outer region is of substantially larger amplitude in pipe flow as compared to channel flow (although weaker than in boundary layer flow). This intriguing feature has been well known but has no simple explanation. Model predictions typically give identical results for the two flows. We have analyzed a new set of DNS for pipe and channel flows (el Khoury et al. 2013, Flow, Turbulence and Combustion) for friction Reynolds numbers up to 1000 and made comparing calculations with differential Reynolds stress models (DRSM). We have strong indications that the key factor behind the difference in mean velocity in the outer region can be coupled to differences in the turbulent diffusion in this region. This is also supported by DRSM results, where interesting differences are seen depending on the sophistication of modeling the turbulent diffusion coefficient.

  11. Some Results on Optimal Dividend Problem in Two Risk Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shuaiqi Zhang

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available The compound Poisson risk model and the compound Poisson risk model perturbed by diffusion are considered in the presence of a dividend barrier with solvency constraints. Moreover, it extends the known result due to [1]. Ref. [1] finds the optimal dividend policy is of a barrier type for a jump-diffusion model with exponentially distributed jumps. In this paper, it turns out that there can be two different solutions depending on the model’s parameters. Furthermore, an interesting result is given: the proportional transaction cost has no effect on the dividend barrier. The objective of the corporation is to maximize the cumulative expected discounted dividends payout with solvency constraints before the time of ruin. It is well known that under some reasonable assumptions, optimal dividend strategy is a barrier strategy, i.e., there is a level b_{1}(b_{2} so that whenever surplus goes above the level b_{1}(b_{2}, the excess is paid out as dividends. However, the optimal level b_{1}(b_{2} may be unacceptably low from a solvency point of view. Therefore, some constraints should imposed on an insurance company such as to pay out dividends unless the surplus has reached a level b^{1}_{c}>b_{1}(b^2_{c}>b_{2} . We show that in this case a barrier strategy at b^{1}_{c}(b^2_{c} is optimal.

  12. Modeling results for the ITER cryogenic fore pump

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, D. S.; Miller, F. K.; Pfotenhauer, J. M.

    2014-01-01

    The cryogenic fore pump (CFP) is designed for ITER to collect and compress hydrogen isotopes during the regeneration process of torus cryopumps. Different from common cryopumps, the ITER-CFP works in the viscous flow regime. As a result, both adsorption boundary conditions and transport phenomena contribute unique features to the pump performance. In this report, the physical mechanisms of cryopumping are studied, especially the diffusion-adsorption process and these are coupled with standard equations of species, momentum and energy balance, as well as the equation of state. Numerical models are developed, which include highly coupled non-linear conservation equations of species, momentum and energy and equation of state. Thermal and kinetic properties are treated as functions of temperature, pressure, and composition. To solve such a set of equations, a novel numerical technique, identified as the Group-Member numerical technique is proposed. It is presented here a 1D numerical model. The results include comparison with the experimental data of pure hydrogen flow and a prediction for hydrogen flow with trace helium. An advanced 2D model and detailed explanation of the Group-Member technique are to be presented in following papers.

  13. Decision-making deficits in patients with chronic schizophrenia: Iowa Gambling Task and Prospect Valence Learning model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kim MS

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Myung-Sun Kim,1 Bit-Na Kang,1 Jae Young Lim2 1Department of Psychology, Sungshin Women’s University, Seoul, Republic of Korea; 2Department of Psychiatry, Keyo Medical Foundation, Keyo Hospital, Uiwang, Republic of Korea Purpose: Decision-making is the process of forming preferences for possible options, selecting and executing actions, and evaluating the outcome. This study used the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT and the Prospect Valence Learning (PVL model to investigate deficits in risk-reward related decision-making in patients with chronic schizophrenia, and to identify decision-making processes that contribute to poor IGT performance in these patients. Materials and methods: Thirty-nine patients with schizophrenia and 31 healthy controls participated. Decision-making was measured by total net score, block net scores, and the total number of cards selected from each deck of the IGT. PVL parameters were estimated with the Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling scheme in OpenBugs and BRugs, its interface to R, and the estimated parameters were analyzed with the Mann–Whitney U-test.Results: The schizophrenia group received significantly lower total net scores compared to the control group. In terms of block net scores, an interaction effect of group × block was observed. The block net scores of the schizophrenia group did not differ across the five blocks, whereas those of the control group increased as the blocks progressed. The schizophrenia group obtained significantly lower block net scores in the fourth and fifth blocks of the IGT and selected cards from deck D (advantageous less frequently than the control group. Additionally, the schizophrenia group had significantly lower values on the utility-shape, loss-aversion, recency, and consistency parameters of the PVL model. Conclusion: These results indicate that patients with schizophrenia experience deficits in decision-making, possibly due to failure in learning the expected value of each deck

  14. Multi-Criteria Decision-Making Model for the Material Flow of Resonant Wood Production

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patrik Aláč

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a multi-criteria decision-making model, for the selection and evaluation of the most valuable wooden input—resonant wood. Application of a given model can improve the process of input valuation as well as impact and improve particular economic indicators for the resonant wood manufacturer. We have tried to describe and evaluate the supply chain of resonant wood manufacturing and production of musical instruments. Particular value-added and non-value-added activities have been chosen according to the logical sequence of technology. Then, concrete criteria were specified and their significance weightings. Another important part of our paper is the description of resonant wood, specifications, and demands on log and wood species. There are some important physical and mechanical properties which should be taken into account and evaluated during the production of musical instruments. By the application of this model, a particular enterprise can reach an enhanced tool for the continuous evaluation of the product flowing through the supply chain. Visibility of particular operations and their logical sequence, presented by Petri nets, can lead to easier detection of possible defects in these operations and their origin. So, the main purpose of the paper lies in the suggestion of an objective and quantified managerial tool for the decision making.

  15. A strategic decision-making model considering the social costs of carbon dioxide emissions for sustainable supply chain management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tseng, Shih-Chang; Hung, Shiu-Wan

    2014-01-15

    Incorporating sustainability into supply chain management has become a critical issue driven by pressures from governments, customers, and various stakeholder groups over the past decade. This study proposes a strategic decision-making model considering both the operational costs and social costs caused by the carbon dioxide emissions from operating such a supply chain network for sustainable supply chain management. This model was used to evaluate carbon dioxide emissions and operational costs under different scenarios in an apparel manufacturing supply chain network. The results showed that the higher the social cost rate of carbon dioxide emissions, the lower the amount of the emission of carbon dioxide. The results also suggested that a legislation that forces the enterprises to bear the social costs of carbon dioxide emissions resulting from their economic activities is an effective approach to reducing carbon dioxide emissions.

  16. A multi-criteria decision-making model for evaluating priorities for foreign direct investment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Korhan K. Gokmenoglu

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study is to evaluate the relative priority of nine developed countries as a home country for foreign direct investment (FDI from the vantage point of the United States during three time periods: pre-crisis (2004-2006, crisis (2007-2009, and post-crisis (2010-2012. Our study suggests a methodology based on a combination of the analytic hierarchy process (AHP, the technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS, and the multi-period multi-attribute decision-making (MP-MADM technique. To investigate our research question, we selected fifteen robust FDI determinants from recent studies. The results for all three time periods show that productivity, market potential, market size, GDP growth and development have the highest priority in the decision-making process. On the other hand, we found that the 2007 global financial crisis significantly affected each variable in the decision-making process. During the crisis, two variables in particular - corruption and GDP growth - significantly increased in importance. These findings have far-reaching policy implications and can assist policymakers and investors in their strategic decision-making process.

  17. Decision-making process of Kala Azar care: results from a qualitative study carried out in disease endemic areas of Nepal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adhikari, Shiva Raj; Supakankunti, Siripen; Khan, M Mahmud

    2013-07-12

    Analysis of consumer decision making in the health sector is a complex process of comparing feasible alternatives and evaluating the levels of satisfaction associated with the relevant options. This paper makes an attempt to understand how and why consumers make specific decisions, what motivates them to adopt a specific health intervention, and what features they find attractive in each of the options. The study used a descriptive-explanatory design to analyze the factors determining the choices of healthcare providers. Information was collected through focus group discussions and in-depth interviews. The results suggest that the decision making related to seeking healthcare for Kala Azar (KA) treatment is a complex, interactive process. Patients and family members follow a well-defined road map for decision making. The process of decision making starts from the recognition of healthcare needs and is then modified by a number of other factors, such as indigenous knowledge, healthcare alternatives, and available resources. Household and individual characteristics also play important roles in facilitating the process of decision making. The results from the group discussions and in-depth interviews are consistent with the idea that KA patients and family members follow the rational approach of weighing the costs against the benefits of using specific types of medical care. The process of decision making related to seeking healthcare follows a complex set of steps and many of the potential factors affect the decision making in a non-linear fashion. Our analysis suggests that it is possible to derive a generalized road map of the decision-making process starting from the recognition of healthcare needs, and then modifying it to show the influences of indigenous knowledge, healthcare alternatives, and available resources.

  18. Fiscal 1996 project on the modeling for effective energy consumption in developing countries under a consignment from NEDO. Recent on the results of the demonstrative study on scrap preheater of electric furnace in the iron making process (for public); 1996 nendo hatten tojokoku energy shohi koritsuka model jigyo Shin Energy Sangyo Gijutsu Sogo Kaihatsu Kiko itaku. Seitetsu katei ni okeru denkiro no genryo yonetsu sochi ni kakawaru jissho kenkyu seika hokokusho (kokaiyo)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1997-03-01

    Indonesia is the biggest iron steel producing country in the ASEAN countries. Most of the production is produced by the electric furnace method in which iron steel scrap is used as a material. However, an energy saving measure in this method, the electric furnace scrap preheater using flue gas, has not yet been spread on a full scale. This R and D is aimed at developing jointly with Indonesia an electric furnace scrap preheater for medium/small size electric furnaces which are adoptable to the present iron making situation in Indonesia and installing it to the electric furnace of the iron making plant in Indonesia for a demonstrative study on energy saving, etc. Spread/expansion of the electric furnace scrap preheater which is an excellent energy saving system targeted expansion of energy saving technology not only of Indonesia, but of ASEAN countries and Japan. In this fiscal year, remodeling of part of the system was made by change of flue gas flow for increasing the energy saving effect, and at the same time, a research study was made of a scrap reheater effective as a total system. Moreover, the paper investigated technical data/information in Japan and overseas. 3 figs., 9 tabs.

  19. A methodology for eliciting, representing, and analysing stakeholder knowledge for decision making on complex socio-ecological systems: from cognitive maps to agent-based models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elsawah, Sondoss; Guillaume, Joseph H A; Filatova, Tatiana; Rook, Josefine; Jakeman, Anthony J

    2015-03-15

    This paper aims to contribute to developing better ways for incorporating essential human elements in decision making processes for modelling of complex socio-ecological systems. It presents a step-wise methodology for integrating perceptions of stakeholders (qualitative) into formal simulation models (quantitative) with the ultimate goal of improving understanding and communication about decision making in complex socio-ecological systems. The methodology integrates cognitive mapping and agent based modelling. It cascades through a sequence of qualitative/soft and numerical methods comprising: (1) Interviews to elicit mental models; (2) Cognitive maps to represent and analyse individual and group mental models; (3) Time-sequence diagrams to chronologically structure the decision making process; (4) All-encompassing conceptual model of decision making, and (5) computational (in this case agent-based) Model. We apply the proposed methodology (labelled ICTAM) in a case study of viticulture irrigation in South Australia. Finally, we use strengths-weakness-opportunities-threats (SWOT) analysis to reflect on the methodology. Results show that the methodology leverages the use of cognitive mapping to capture the richness of decision making and mental models, and provides a combination of divergent and convergent analysis methods leading to the construction of an Agent Based Model.

  20. SR-Site groundwater flow modelling methodology, setup and results

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Selroos, Jan-Olof (Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co., Stockholm (Sweden)); Follin, Sven (SF GeoLogic AB, Taeby (Sweden))

    2010-12-15

    As a part of the license application for a final repository for spent nuclear fuel at Forsmark, the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB) has undertaken three groundwater flow modelling studies. These are performed within the SR-Site project and represent time periods with different climate conditions. The simulations carried out contribute to the overall evaluation of the repository design and long-term radiological safety. Three time periods are addressed; the Excavation and operational phases, the Initial period of temperate climate after closure, and the Remaining part of the reference glacial cycle. The present report is a synthesis of the background reports describing the modelling methodology, setup, and results. It is the primary reference for the conclusions drawn in a SR-Site specific context concerning groundwater flow during the three climate periods. These conclusions are not necessarily provided explicitly in the background reports, but are based on the results provided in these reports. The main results and comparisons presented in the present report are summarised in the SR-Site Main report.

  1. Geochemical controls on shale groundwaters: Results of reaction path modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Von Damm, K.L.; VandenBrook, A.J.

    1989-03-01

    The EQ3NR/EQ6 geochemical modeling code was used to simulate the reaction of several shale mineralogies with different groundwater compositions in order to elucidate changes that may occur in both the groundwater compositions, and rock mineralogies and compositions under conditions which may be encountered in a high-level radioactive waste repository. Shales with primarily illitic or smectitic compositions were the focus of this study. The reactions were run at the ambient temperatures of the groundwaters and to temperatures as high as 250/degree/C, the approximate temperature maximum expected in a repository. All modeling assumed that equilibrium was achieved and treated the rock and water assemblage as a closed system. Graphite was used as a proxy mineral for organic matter in the shales. The results show that the presence of even a very small amount of reducing mineral has a large influence on the redox state of the groundwaters, and that either pyrite or graphite provides essentially the same results, with slight differences in dissolved C, Fe and S concentrations. The thermodynamic data base is inadequate at the present time to fully evaluate the speciation of dissolved carbon, due to the paucity of thermodynamic data for organic compounds. In the illitic cases the groundwaters resulting from interaction at elevated temperatures are acid, while the smectitic cases remain alkaline, although the final equilibrium mineral assemblages are quite similar. 10 refs., 8 figs., 15 tabs.

  2. Multi-Model Combination techniques for Hydrological Forecasting: Application to Distributed Model Intercomparison Project Results

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ajami, N K; Duan, Q; Gao, X; Sorooshian, S

    2005-04-11

    This paper examines several multi-model combination techniques: the Simple Multi-model Average (SMA), the Multi-Model Super Ensemble (MMSE), Modified Multi-Model Super Ensemble (M3SE) and the Weighted Average Method (WAM). These model combination techniques were evaluated using the results from the Distributed Model Intercomparison Project (DMIP), an international project sponsored by the National Weather Service (NWS) Office of Hydrologic Development (OHD). All of the multi-model combination results were obtained using uncalibrated DMIP model outputs and were compared against the best uncalibrated as well as the best calibrated individual model results. The purpose of this study is to understand how different combination techniques affect the skill levels of the multi-model predictions. This study revealed that the multi-model predictions obtained from uncalibrated single model predictions are generally better than any single member model predictions, even the best calibrated single model predictions. Furthermore, more sophisticated multi-model combination techniques that incorporated bias correction steps work better than simple multi-model average predictions or multi-model predictions without bias correction.

  3. VNIR spectral modeling of Mars analogue rocks: first results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pompilio, L.; Roush, T.; Pedrazzi, G.; Sgavetti, M.

    Knowledge regarding the surface composition of Mars and other bodies of the inner solar system is fundamental to understanding of their origin, evolution, and internal structures. Technological improvements of remote sensors and associated implications for planetary studies have encouraged increased laboratory and field spectroscopy research to model the spectral behavior of terrestrial analogues for planetary surfaces. This approach has proven useful during Martian surface and orbital missions, and petrologic studies of Martian SNC meteorites. Thermal emission data were used to suggest two lithologies occurring on Mars surface: basalt with abundant plagioclase and clinopyroxene and andesite, dominated by plagioclase and volcanic glass [1,2]. Weathered basalt has been suggested as an alternative to the andesite interpretation [3,4]. Orbital VNIR spectral imaging data also suggest the crust is dominantly basaltic, chiefly feldspar and pyroxene [5,6]. A few outcrops of ancient crust have higher concentrations of olivine and low-Ca pyroxene, and have been interpreted as cumulates [6]. Based upon these orbital observations future lander/rover missions can be expected to encounter particulate soils, rocks, and rock outcrops. Approaches to qualitative and quantitative analysis of remotely-acquired spectra have been successfully used to infer the presence and abundance of minerals and to discover compositionally associated spectral trends [7-9]. Both empirical [10] and mathematical [e.g. 11-13] methods have been applied, typically with full compositional knowledge, to chiefly particulate samples and as a result cannot be considered as objective techniques for predicting the compositional information, especially for understanding the spectral behavior of rocks. Extending the compositional modeling efforts to include more rocks and developing objective criteria in the modeling are the next required steps. This is the focus of the present investigation. We present results of

  4. Integrating human and robot decision-making dynamics with feedback : Models and convergence analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cao, Ming; Stewart, Andrew; Leonard, Naomi Ehrich

    2008-01-01

    Leveraging research by psychologists on human decision-making, we present a human-robot decision-making problem associated with a complex task and study the corresponding joint decision-making dynamics. The collaborative task is designed so that the human makes decisions just as human subjects make

  5. ITER CS Model Coil and CS Insert Test Results

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Martovetsky, N; Michael, P; Minervina, J; Radovinsky, A; Takayasu, M; Thome, R; Ando, T; Isono, T; Kato, T; Nakajima, H; Nishijima, G; Nunoya, Y; Sugimoto, M; Takahashi, Y; Tsuji, H; Bessette, D; Okuno, K; Ricci, M

    2000-09-07

    The Inner and Outer modules of the Central Solenoid Model Coil (CSMC) were built by US and Japanese home teams in collaboration with European and Russian teams to demonstrate the feasibility of a superconducting Central Solenoid for ITER and other large tokamak reactors. The CSMC mass is about 120 t, OD is about 3.6 m and the stored energy is 640 MJ at 46 kA and peak field of 13 T. Testing of the CSMC and the CS Insert took place at Japan Atomic Energy Research Institute (JAERI) from mid March until mid August 2000. This paper presents the main results of the tests performed.

  6. Results of the benchmark for blade structural models, part A

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lekou, D.J.; Chortis, D.; Belen Fariñas, A.;

    2013-01-01

    Task 2.2 of the InnWind.Eu project. The benchmark is based on the reference wind turbine and the reference blade provided by DTU [1]. "Structural Concept developers/modelers" of WP2 were provided with the necessary input for a comparison numerical simulation run, upon definition of the reference blade......A benchmark on structural design methods for blades was performed within the InnWind.Eu project under WP2 “Lightweight Rotor” Task 2.2 “Lightweight structural design”. The present document is describes the results of the comparison simulation runs that were performed by the partners involved within...

  7. Model independent analysis of dark energy I: Supernova fitting result

    CERN Document Server

    Gong, Y

    2004-01-01

    The nature of dark energy is a mystery to us. This paper uses the supernova data to explore the property of dark energy by some model independent methods. We first Talyor expanded the scale factor $a(t)$ to find out the deceleration parameter $q_0<0$. This result just invokes the Robertson-Walker metric. Then we discuss several different parameterizations used in the literature. We find that $\\Omega_{\\rm DE0}$ is almost less than -1 at $1\\sigma$ level. We also find that the transition redshift from deceleration phase to acceleration phase is $z_{\\rm T}\\sim 0.3$.

  8. Preliminary results of steel containment vessel model test

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Luk, V.K.; Hessheimer, M.F. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Matsumoto, T.; Komine, K.; Arai, S. [Nuclear Power Engineering Corp., Tokyo (Japan); Costello, J.F. [Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington, DC (United States)

    1998-04-01

    A high pressure test of a mixed-scaled model (1:10 in geometry and 1:4 in shell thickness) of a steel containment vessel (SCV), representing an improved boiling water reactor (BWR) Mark II containment, was conducted on December 11--12, 1996 at Sandia National Laboratories. This paper describes the preliminary results of the high pressure test. In addition, the preliminary post-test measurement data and the preliminary comparison of test data with pretest analysis predictions are also presented.

  9. Multi-Model Combination Techniques for Hydrological Forecasting: Application to Distributed Model Intercomparison Project Results

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ajami, N; Duan, Q; Gao, X; Sorooshian, S

    2006-05-08

    This paper examines several multi-model combination techniques: the Simple Multimodel Average (SMA), the Multi-Model Super Ensemble (MMSE), Modified Multi-Model Super Ensemble (M3SE) and the Weighted Average Method (WAM). These model combination techniques were evaluated using the results from the Distributed Model Intercomparison Project (DMIP), an international project sponsored by the National Weather Service (NWS) Office of Hydrologic Development (OHD). All of the multi-model combination results were obtained using uncalibrated DMIP model outputs and were compared against the best uncalibrated as well as the best calibrated individual model results. The purpose of this study is to understand how different combination techniques affect the skill levels of the multi-model predictions. This study revealed that the multi-model predictions obtained from uncalibrated single model predictions are generally better than any single member model predictions, even the best calibrated single model predictions. Furthermore, more sophisticated multi-model combination techniques that incorporated bias correction steps work better than simple multi-model average predictions or multi-model predictions without bias correction.

  10. Impact Flash Physics: Modeling and Comparisons With Experimental Results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rainey, E.; Stickle, A. M.; Ernst, C. M.; Schultz, P. H.; Mehta, N. L.; Brown, R. C.; Swaminathan, P. K.; Michaelis, C. H.; Erlandson, R. E.

    2015-12-01

    horizontal. High-speed radiometer measurements were made of the time-dependent impact flash at wavelengths of 350-1100 nm. We will present comparisons between these measurements and the output of APL's model. The results of this validation allow us to determine basic relationships between observed optical signatures and impact conditions.

  11. Subsea Permafrost Climate Modeling - Challenges and First Results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodehacke, C. B.; Stendel, M.; Marchenko, S. S.; Christensen, J. H.; Romanovsky, V. E.; Nicolsky, D.

    2015-12-01

    Recent observations indicate that the East Siberian Arctic Shelf (ESAS) releases methane, which stems from shallow hydrate seabed reservoirs. The total amount of carbon within the ESAS is so large that release of only a small fraction, for example via taliks, which are columns of unfrozen sediment within the permafrost, could impact distinctly the global climate. Therefore it is crucial to simulate the future fate of ESAS' subsea permafrost with regard to changing atmospheric and oceanic conditions. However only very few attempts to address the vulnerability of subsea permafrost have been made, instead most studies have focused on the evolution of permafrost since the Late Pleistocene ocean transgression, approximately 14000 years ago.In contrast to land permafrost modeling, any attempt to model the future fate of subsea permafrost needs to consider several additional factors, in particular the dependence of freezing temperature on water depth and salt content and the differences in ground heat flux depending on the seabed properties. Also the amount of unfrozen water in the sediment needs to be taken into account. Using a system of coupled ocean, atmosphere and permafrost models will allow us to capture the complexity of the different parts of the system and evaluate the relative importance of different processes. Here we present the first results of a novel approach by means of dedicated permafrost model simulations. These have been driven by conditions of the Laptev Sea region in East Siberia. By exploiting the ensemble approach, we will show how uncertainties in boundary conditions and applied forcing scenarios control the future fate of the sub sea permafrost.

  12. DARK STARS: IMPROVED MODELS AND FIRST PULSATION RESULTS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rindler-Daller, T.; Freese, K. [Department of Physics and Michigan Center for Theoretical Physics, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109 (United States); Montgomery, M. H.; Winget, D. E. [Department of Astronomy, McDonald Observatory and Texas Cosmology Center, University of Texas, Austin, TX 78712 (United States); Paxton, B. [Kavli Insitute for Theoretical Physics, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA 93106 (United States)

    2015-02-01

    We use the stellar evolution code MESA to study dark stars (DSs). DSs, which are powered by dark matter (DM) self-annihilation rather than by nuclear fusion, may be the first stars to form in the universe. We compute stellar models for accreting DSs with masses up to 10{sup 6} M {sub ☉}. The heating due to DM annihilation is self-consistently included, assuming extended adiabatic contraction of DM within the minihalos in which DSs form. We find remarkably good overall agreement with previous models, which assumed polytropic interiors. There are some differences in the details, with positive implications for observability. We found that, in the mass range of 10{sup 4}-10{sup 5} M {sub ☉}, our DSs are hotter by a factor of 1.5 than those in Freese et al., are smaller in radius by a factor of 0.6, denser by a factor of three to four, and more luminous by a factor of two. Our models also confirm previous results, according to which supermassive DSs are very well approximated by (n = 3)-polytropes. We also perform a first study of DS pulsations. Our DS models have pulsation modes with timescales ranging from less than a day to more than two years in their rest frames, at z ∼ 15, depending on DM particle mass and overtone number. Such pulsations may someday be used to identify bright, cool objects uniquely as DSs; if properly calibrated, they might, in principle, also supply novel standard candles for cosmological studies.

  13. Planning a Stigmatized Nonvisible Illness Disclosure: Applying the Disclosure Decision-Making Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Soe Yoon; Venetis, Maria K; Greene, Kathryn; Magsamen-Conrad, Kate; Checton, Maria G; Banerjee, Smita C

    2016-11-16

    This study applied the disclosure decision-making model (DD-MM) to explore how individuals plan to disclose nonvisible illness (Study 1), compared to planning to disclose personal information (Study 2). Study 1 showed that perceived stigma from the illness negatively predicted disclosure efficacy; closeness predicted anticipated response (i.e., provision of support) although it did not influence disclosure efficacy; disclosure efficacy led to reduced planning, with planning leading to scheduling. Study 2 demonstrated that when information was considered to be intimate, it negatively influenced disclosure efficacy. Unlike the model with stigma (Study 1), closeness positively predicted both anticipated response and disclosure efficacy. The rest of the hypothesized relationships showed a similar pattern to Study 1: disclosure efficacy reduced planning, which then positively influenced scheduling. Implications of understanding stages of planning for stigmatized information are discussed.

  14. Making Energy-Efficiency and Productivity Investments in Commercial Buildings: Choice of Investment Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jones, D.W.

    2002-05-16

    This study examines the decision to invest in buildings and the types of investment decision rules that may be employed to inform the ''go--no go'' decision. There is a range of decision making tools available to help in investment choices, which range from simple rules of thumb such as payback periods, to life-cycle analysis, to decision theoretic approaches. Payback period analysis tends to point toward lower first costs, whereas life-cycle analysis tends to minimize uncertainties over future events that can affect profitability. We conclude that investment models that integrate uncertainty offer better explanations for the behavior that is observed, i.e., people tend to delay investments in technologies that life-cycle analysis finds cost-effective, and these models also lead to an alternative set of policies targeted at reducing of managing uncertainty.

  15. Designing a Operational Evaluation Model for Outsourcing Decision Making by Effective Outsourcing Factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmad Jafarnejad

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Organizations around the world are looking for new approaches to maintain or develop competitive advantage. Outsourcing can be such an approach and one of the strategies that can lead to greater competitiveness. Maintaining and developing core competences as a way of providing barriers to protect against present and future competitors; make full use of external capabilities, innovation and investment; and finally, provide better service, quality and cost to the customer. In this study we determined variables and factors involved in maintenance outsourcing process and developed a generic model for the maintenance outsourcing process by three main factors such as characteristics of organization, characteristics of Environment/Industry and characteristics of Contractors. Then the proposed model has been tested in an electric company by the use of gray theory in order to determine that the organization do complete outsourcing or outsourcing with non-decisions.

  16. Convergence results for a coarsening model using global linearization

    CERN Document Server

    Gallay, T; Gallay, Th.

    2002-01-01

    We study a coarsening model describing the dynamics of interfaces in the one-dimensional Allen-Cahn equation. Given a partition of the real line into intervals of length greater than one, the model consists in constantly eliminating the shortest interval of the partition by merging it with its two neighbors. We show that the mean-field equation for the time-dependent distribution of interval lengths can be explicitly solved using a global linearization transformation. This allows us to derive rigorous results on the long-time asymptotics of the solutions. If the average length of the intervals is finite, we prove that all distributions approach a uniquely determined self-similar solution. We also obtain global stability results for the family of self-similar profiles which correspond to distributions with infinite expectation. eliminating the shortest interval of the partition by merging it with its two neighbors. We show that the mean-field equation for the time-dependent distribution of interval lengths can...

  17. Compressible Turbulent Channel Flows: DNS Results and Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, P. G.; Coleman, G. N.; Bradshaw, P.; Rai, Man Mohan (Technical Monitor)

    1994-01-01

    The present paper addresses some topical issues in modeling compressible turbulent shear flows. The work is based on direct numerical simulation of two supersonic fully developed channel flows between very cold isothermal walls. Detailed decomposition and analysis of terms appearing in the momentum and energy equations are presented. The simulation results are used to provide insights into differences between conventional time-and Favre-averaging of the mean-flow and turbulent quantities. Study of the turbulence energy budget for the two cases shows that the compressibility effects due to turbulent density and pressure fluctuations are insignificant. In particular, the dilatational dissipation and the mean product of the pressure and dilatation fluctuations are very small, contrary to the results of simulations for sheared homogeneous compressible turbulence and to recent proposals for models for general compressible turbulent flows. This provides a possible explanation of why the Van Driest density-weighted transformation is so successful in correlating compressible boundary layer data. Finally, it is found that the DNS data do not support the strong Reynolds analogy. A more general representation of the analogy is analysed and shown to match the DNS data very well.

  18. Modelling in support of decision-making for South African extensive beef farmers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D.H. Meyer

    2003-12-01

    Full Text Available In this study it is shown that it is possible to build a decision support system for the use of South African extensive beef farmers. Initially models for the key variables which affect extensive beef farmers are developed. These key variables include rainfall, beef, veal and weaner prices and the condition of the veld. This last key variable is monitored using the voluntary lick intake of the cattle and is modelled in terms of rainfall and stocking intensity. Particular attention is paid to the interrelationships between the key variables and to the distribution of modelling errors. The next stage of the study concerns the use of these models as a decision-support tool for extensive beef farmers. It is shown that Monte Carlo simulations and dynamic programming analyses can use these models to suggest how gross margins can be increased. At the same time these methods can be used to monitor the effect of management decisions on mean lick intake and, hence, the effect of these decisions on the condition of the veld. In particular the decisions of "what stocking intensity", "what cattle system", "when to sell" and "when to make a change" are addressed.

  19. Law machines: scale models, forensic materiality and the making of modern patent law.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pottage, Alain

    2011-10-01

    Early US patent law was machine made. Before the Patent Office took on the function of examining patent applications in 1836, questions of novelty and priority were determined in court, within the forum of the infringement action. And at all levels of litigation, from the circuit courts up to the Supreme Court, working models were the media through which doctrine, evidence and argument were made legible, communicated and interpreted. A model could be set on a table, pointed at, picked up, rotated or upended so as to display a point of interest to a particular audience within the courtroom, and, crucially, set in motion to reveal the 'mode of operation' of a machine. The immediate object of demonstration was to distinguish the intangible invention from its tangible embodiment, but models also'machined' patent law itself. Demonstrations of patent claims with models articulated and resolved a set of conceptual tensions that still make the definition and apprehension of the invention difficult, even today, but they resolved these tensions in the register of materiality, performativity and visibility, rather than the register of conceptuality. The story of models tells us something about how inventions emerge and subsist within the context of patent litigation and patent doctrine, and it offers a starting point for renewed reflection on the question of how technology becomes property.

  20. Observing the observer (I): meta-bayesian models of learning and decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daunizeau, Jean; den Ouden, Hanneke E M; Pessiglione, Matthias; Kiebel, Stefan J; Stephan, Klaas E; Friston, Karl J

    2010-12-14

    In this paper, we present a generic approach that can be used to infer how subjects make optimal decisions under uncertainty. This approach induces a distinction between a subject's perceptual model, which underlies the representation of a hidden "state of affairs" and a response model, which predicts the ensuing behavioural (or neurophysiological) responses to those inputs. We start with the premise that subjects continuously update a probabilistic representation of the causes of their sensory inputs to optimise their behaviour. In addition, subjects have preferences or goals that guide decisions about actions given the above uncertain representation of these hidden causes or state of affairs. From a Bayesian decision theoretic perspective, uncertain representations are so-called "posterior" beliefs, which are influenced by subjective "prior" beliefs. Preferences and goals are encoded through a "loss" (or "utility") function, which measures the cost incurred by making any admissible decision for any given (hidden) state of affair. By assuming that subjects make optimal decisions on the basis of updated (posterior) beliefs and utility (loss) functions, one can evaluate the likelihood of observed behaviour. Critically, this enables one to "observe the observer", i.e. identify (context- or subject-dependent) prior beliefs and utility-functions using psychophysical or neurophysiological measures. In this paper, we describe the main theoretical components of this meta-Bayesian approach (i.e. a Bayesian treatment of Bayesian decision theoretic predictions). In a companion paper ('Observing the observer (II): deciding when to decide'), we describe a concrete implementation of it and demonstrate its utility by applying it to simulated and real reaction time data from an associative learning task.

  1. Observing the observer (I: meta-bayesian models of learning and decision-making.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jean Daunizeau

    Full Text Available In this paper, we present a generic approach that can be used to infer how subjects make optimal decisions under uncertainty. This approach induces a distinction between a subject's perceptual model, which underlies the representation of a hidden "state of affairs" and a response model, which predicts the ensuing behavioural (or neurophysiological responses to those inputs. We start with the premise that subjects continuously update a probabilistic representation of the causes of their sensory inputs to optimise their behaviour. In addition, subjects have preferences or goals that guide decisions about actions given the above uncertain representation of these hidden causes or state of affairs. From a Bayesian decision theoretic perspective, uncertain representations are so-called "posterior" beliefs, which are influenced by subjective "prior" beliefs. Preferences and goals are encoded through a "loss" (or "utility" function, which measures the cost incurred by making any admissible decision for any given (hidden state of affair. By assuming that subjects make optimal decisions on the basis of updated (posterior beliefs and utility (loss functions, one can evaluate the likelihood of observed behaviour. Critically, this enables one to "observe the observer", i.e. identify (context- or subject-dependent prior beliefs and utility-functions using psychophysical or neurophysiological measures. In this paper, we describe the main theoretical components of this meta-Bayesian approach (i.e. a Bayesian treatment of Bayesian decision theoretic predictions. In a companion paper ('Observing the observer (II: deciding when to decide', we describe a concrete implementation of it and demonstrate its utility by applying it to simulated and real reaction time data from an associative learning task.

  2. Decision Making in Rangelands: An Integrated Modeling Approach to Resilience and Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galvin, K. A.; Ojima, D. S.; Boone, R. B.

    2007-12-01

    Rangelands comprise approximately 25% of the earth's surface and these landscapes support more than 20 million people and most of the world's charismatic megafauna. Most of the people who live in these regions of the world herd domestic livestock and some do limited cultivation so they are dependent directly on the environment for their livelihoods. But change is rapidly changing the environments upon which these people depend through such factors as population pressures, land use and land tenure changes, climate variability, and policy changes which fragment their resources and thus their ability to earn a living. How can we understand change in this linked human-environment system? The study of complex biophysical and human systems can be greatly assisted by appropriate simulation models that integrate what is known about ecological and human decision-making processes. We have developed an integrated modeling system for Kajiado, Kenya where land use management decisions have implications for economics and the ecosystem. In this paper we look at how land use decisions, that is, livestock movement patterns have implications for societal economics and ecosystem services. Research that focuses on local behavior is important because it is at that level where fundamental decisions are made regarding events like extreme climate and changes such as land tenure policy and it is here where resilience is manifested. The notion that broad recommendation domains can be identified for a broad set of people and large regions coping with change is becoming increasingly hard to trust given the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of the systems we are looking at, and the complexity of the world we now live in. Why is this important? The only way the research community is going to make great progress in attaining objectives that do confer resilience (on social and ecological systems) is through much better targeting ability, a large part of which seem to be intimately entwined with

  3. The Internationalisation Cube. A Tentative Model for the Study of Organisational Designs and the Results of Internationalisation in Higher Education.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Dijk, Hans; Meijer, Kees

    1997-01-01

    Based on results of a Dutch study concerning internationalization of higher education, a model for analyzing the internal institutional process of decision making for, organization of, and implementation of international activities is described. The model positions institutions according to three dimensions: policy (importance attached to…

  4. Applying an agent-based model of agricultural terraces coupled with a landscape evolution model to explore the impact of human decision-making on terraced terrain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glaubius, Jennifer

    2016-04-01

    Agricultural terraces impact landscape evolution as a result of long-term human-landscape interactions, including decisions regarding terrace maintenance and abandonment. Modeling simulations are often employed to examine the sensitivity of landscapes to various factors, such as rainfall and land cover. Landscape evolution models, erosion models, and hydrological models have all previously been used to simulate the impact of agricultural terrace construction on terrain evolution, soil erosion, and hydrological connectivity. Human choices regarding individual terraces have not been included in these models to this point, despite recent recognition that maintenance and abandonment decisions alter transport and storage patterns of soil and water in terraced terrain. An agent-based model of human decisions related to agricultural terraces is implemented based on a conceptual model of agricultural terrace life cycle stages created from a literature review of terracing impacts. The agricultural terracing agent-based model is then coupled with a landscape evolution model to explore the role of human decisions in the evolution of terraced landscapes. To fully explore this type of co-evolved landscape, human decision-making and its feedbacks must be included in landscape evolution models. Project results may also have implications for management of terraced terrain based on how human choices in these environments affect soil loss and land degradation.

  5. A QFD-based decision making model for computer-aided design software selection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kanika Prasad

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available With the progress in technology and innovation in product development, the contribution of computer- aided design (CAD software in the design and manufacture of parts/products is growing on significantly. Selection of an appropriate CAD software is not a trifling task as it involves analyzing the appositeness of the available software packages to the unique requirements of the organization. Existence of a large number of CAD software vendors, presence of discordance among different hardware and software systems, and dearth of technical knowledge and experience of the decision makers further complicate the selection procedure. Moreover, there are very few published research papers related to CAD software selection, and majority of them have either employed criteria weights computed utilizing subjective judgements of the end users or floundered to incorporate the voice of customers in the decision making process. Quality function deployment (QFD is a well-known technique for determining the relative importance of customers’ defined criteria for selection of any product or service. Therefore, this paper deals with design and development of a QFD-based decision making model in Visual BASIC 6.0 for selection of CAD software for manufacturing organizations. In order to demonstrate the applicability and potentiality of the developed model in the form of a software prototype, two illustrative examples are also provided.

  6. Quantum-Like Model for Decision Making Process in Two Players Game. A Non-Kolmogorovian Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asano, Masanari; Ohya, Masanori; Khrennikov, Andrei

    2011-03-01

    In experiments of games, players frequently make choices which are regarded as irrational in game theory. In papers of Khrennikov (Information Dynamics in Cognitive, Psychological and Anomalous Phenomena. Fundamental Theories of Physics, Kluwer Academic, Norwell, 2004; Fuzzy Sets Syst. 155:4-17, 2005; Biosystems 84:225-241, 2006; Found. Phys. 35(10):1655-1693, 2005; in QP-PQ Quantum Probability and White Noise Analysis, vol. XXIV, pp. 105-117, 2009), it was pointed out that statistics collected in such the experiments have "quantum-like" properties, which can not be explained in classical probability theory. In this paper, we design a simple quantum-like model describing a decision-making process in a two-players game and try to explain a mechanism of the irrational behavior of players. Finally we discuss a mathematical frame of non-Kolmogorovian system in terms of liftings (Accardi and Ohya, in Appl. Math. Optim. 39:33-59, 1999).

  7. The necessary burden of involving stakeholders in agent-based modelling for education and decision-making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bommel, P.; Bautista Solís, P.; Leclerc, G.

    2016-12-01

    We implemented a participatory process with water stakeholders for improving resilience to drought at watershed scale, and for reducing water pollution disputes in drought prone Northwestern Costa Rica. The purpose is to facilitate co-management in a rural watershed impacted by recurrent droughts related to ENSO. The process involved designing "ContaMiCuenca", a hybrid agent-based model where users can specify the decisions of their agents. We followed a Companion Modeling approach (www.commod.org) and organized 10 workshops that included research techniques such as participatory diagnostics, actor-resources-interaction and UML diagrams, multi-agents model design, and interactive simulation sessions. We collectively assessed the main water issues in the watershed, prioritized their importance, defined the objectives of the process, and pilot-tested ContaMiCuenca for environmental education with adults and children. Simulation sessions resulted in debates about the need to improve the model accuracy, arguably more relevant for decision-making. This helped identify sensible knowledge gaps in the groundwater pollution and aquifer dynamics that need to be addressed in order to improve our collective learning. Significant mismatches among participants expectations, objectives, and agendas considerably slowed down the participatory process. The main issue may originate in participants expecting technical solutions from a positivist science, as constantly promoted in the region by dole-out initiatives, which is incompatible with the constructivist stance of participatory modellers. This requires much closer interaction of community members with modellers, which may be hard to attain in the current research practice and institutional context. Nevertheless, overcoming these constraints is necessary for a true involvement of water stakeholders to achieve community-based decisions that facilitate integrated water management. Our findings provide significant guidance for

  8. Numerical Results of 3-D Modeling of Moon Accumulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khachay, Yurie; Anfilogov, Vsevolod; Antipin, Alexandr

    2014-05-01

    For the last time for the model of the Moon usually had been used the model of mega impact in which the forming of the Earth and its sputnik had been the consequence of the Earth's collision with the body of Mercurial mass. But all dynamical models of the Earth's accumulation and the estimations after the Pb-Pb system, lead to the conclusion that the duration of the planet accumulation was about 1 milliard years. But isotopic results after the W-Hf system testify about a very early (5-10) million years, dividing of the geochemical reservoirs of the core and mantle. In [1,2] it is shown, that the account of energy dissipating by the decay of short living radioactive elements and first of all Al26,it is sufficient for heating even small bodies with dimensions about (50-100) km up to the iron melting temperature and can be realized a principal new differentiation mechanism. The inner parts of the melted preplanets can join and they are mainly of iron content, but the cold silicate fragments return to the supply zone and additionally change the content of Moon forming to silicates. Only after the increasing of the gravitational radius of the Earth, the growing area of the future Earth's core can save also the silicate envelope fragments [3]. For understanding the further system Earth-Moon evolution it is significant to trace the origin and evolution of heterogeneities, which occur on its accumulation stage.In that paper we are modeling the changing of temperature,pressure,velocity of matter flowing in a block of 3d spherical body with a growing radius. The boundary problem is solved by the finite-difference method for the system of equations, which include equations which describe the process of accumulation, the Safronov equation, the equation of impulse balance, equation Navier-Stocks, equation for above litho static pressure and heat conductivity in velocity-pressure variables using the Businesque approach.The numerical algorithm of the problem solution in velocity

  9. An interdisciplinary framework for participatory modeling design and evaluation—What makes models effective participatory decision tools?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Falconi, Stefanie M.; Palmer, Richard N.

    2017-02-01

    Increased requirements for public involvement in water resources management (WRM) over the past century have stimulated the development of more collaborative decision-making methods. Participatory modeling (PM) uses computer models to inform and engage stakeholders in the planning process in order to influence collaborative decisions in WRM. Past evaluations of participatory models focused on process and final outcomes, yet, were hindered by diversity of purpose and inconsistent documentation. This paper presents a two-stage framework for evaluating PM based on mechanisms for improving model effectiveness as participatory tools. The five dimensions characterize the "who, when, how, and why" of each participatory effort (stage 1). Models are evaluated as "boundary objects," a concept used to describe tools that bridge understanding and translate different bodies of knowledge to improve credibility, salience, and legitimacy (stage 2). This evaluation framework is applied to five existing case studies from the literature. Though the goals of participation can be diverse, the novel contribution of the two-stage proposed framework is the flexibility it has to evaluate a wide range of cases that differ in scope, modeling approach, and participatory context. Also, the evaluation criteria provide a structured vocabulary based on clear mechanisms that extend beyond previous process-based and outcome-based evaluations. Effective models are those that take advantage of mechanisms that facilitate dialogue and resolution and improve the accessibility and applicability of technical knowledge. Furthermore, the framework can help build more complete records and systematic documentation of evidence to help standardize the field of PM.

  10. Practice Makes Perfect? The Role of Participant Modeling in Sexual Abuse Prevention Programs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wurtele, Sandy K.; And Others

    1987-01-01

    Assigned 26 kindergarten children to either a sexual abuse prevention program which taught self-protective skills through modeling and active rehearsal (PM) or a program which taught the same skills by having children watch skills modeled by experimenter (SM). Results provide support for greater efficacy of PM relative to SM for learning of…

  11. Reservoir Operations and Flow Modeling to Support Decision Making in the Delaware River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quinodoz, H. A.

    2006-12-01

    About five percent of the US population depends on the waters from the Delaware River Basin for its water supply, including New York City and Philadelphia. Water management in the basin is governed by a compact signed in 1961 by the four basin states and the federal government. The compact created the Delaware River Basin Commission (DRBC) and gave it broad powers to plan, regulate, and manage the development of the basin water resources. The compact also recognized a pre-existing (1954) U.S. Supreme Court Decree that grants the City of New York the right to export up to 800 million gallons per day out of the basin, provided that a prescribed minimum flow is met at Montague, New Jersey for the use of the lower-basin states. The Delaware River Basin Compact also allows the DRBC to adjust the releases and diversions under the Decree, subject to the unanimous consent of the decree parties. This mechanism has been used several times over the last 30 years, to implement and modify rules governing drought operations, instream flows, minimum flow targets, and control of salinity intrusion. In every case, decision makers have relied upon extensive modeling of alternative proposals, using a basin-wide daily flow model. Often, stakeholders have modified and used the same model to test and refine their proposals prior to consideration by the decision makers. The flow model has been modified over the years, to simulate new features and processes in a river system partially controlled by more than ten reservoirs. The flow model has proved to be an adaptable tool, able to simulate the dynamics of a complex system driven by conflicting objectives. This presentation reviews the characteristics of the daily flow model in its current form, discuss how model simulations are used to inform the decision-making process, and provide a case study of a recent modification of the system-wide drought operating plan.

  12. Uncertainties in future-proof decision-making: the Dutch Delta Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    IJmker, Janneke; Snippen, Edwin; Ruijgh, Erik

    2013-04-01

    In 1953, a number of European countries experienced flooding after a major storm event coming from the northwest. Over 2100 people died of the resulting floods, 1800 of them being Dutch. This gave rise to the development of the so-called Delta Works and Zuiderzee Works that strongly reduced the flood risk in the Netherlands. These measures were a response to a large flooding event. As boundary conditions have changed (increasing population, increasing urban development, etc.) , the flood risk should be evaluated continuously, and measures should be taken if necessary. The Delta Programme was designed to be prepared for future changes and to limit the flood risk, taking into account economics, nature, landscape, residence and recreation . To support decisions in the Delta Programme, the Delta Model was developed. By using four different input scenarios (extremes in climate and economics) and variations in system setup, the outcomes of the Delta Model represent a range of possible outcomes for the hydrological situation in 2050 and 2100. These results flow into effect models that give insight in the integrated effects on freshwater supply (including navigation, industry and ecology) and flood risk. As the long-term water management policy of the Netherlands for the next decades will be based on these results, they have to be reliable. Therefore, a study was carried out to investigate the impact of uncertainties on the model outcomes. The study focused on "known unknowns": uncertainties in the boundary conditions, in the parameterization and in the model itself. This showed that for different parts of the Netherlands, the total uncertainty is in the order of meters! Nevertheless, (1) the total uncertainty is dominated by uncertainties in boundary conditions. Internal model uncertainties are subordinate to that. Furthermore, (2) the model responses develop in a logical way, such that the exact model outcomes might be uncertain, but the outcomes of different model runs

  13. Comparison of blade-strike modeling results with empirical data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ploskey, Gene R. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Carlson, Thomas J. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2004-03-01

    This study is the initial stage of further investigation into the dynamics of injury to fish during passage through a turbine runner. As part of the study, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) estimated the probability of blade strike, and associated injury, as a function of fish length and turbine operating geometry at two adjacent turbines in Powerhouse 1 of Bonneville Dam. Units 5 and 6 had identical intakes, stay vanes, wicket gates, and draft tubes, but Unit 6 had a new runner and curved discharge ring to minimize gaps between the runner hub and blades and between the blade tips and discharge ring. We used a mathematical model to predict blade strike associated with two Kaplan turbines and compared results with empirical data from biological tests conducted in 1999 and 2000. Blade-strike models take into consideration the geometry of the turbine blades and discharges as well as fish length, orientation, and distribution along the runner. The first phase of this study included a sensitivity analysis to consider the effects of difference in geometry and operations between families of turbines on the strike probability response surface. The analysis revealed that the orientation of fish relative to the leading edge of a runner blade and the location that fish pass along the blade between the hub and blade tip are critical uncertainties in blade-strike models. Over a range of discharges, the average prediction of injury from blade strike was two to five times higher than average empirical estimates of visible injury from shear and mechanical devices. Empirical estimates of mortality may be better metrics for comparison to predicted injury rates than other injury measures for fish passing at mid-blade and blade-tip locations.

  14. Position-sensitive transition edge sensor modeling and results

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hammock, Christina E-mail: chammock@milkyway.gsfc.nasa.gov; Figueroa-Feliciano, Enectali; Apodaca, Emmanuel; Bandler, Simon; Boyce, Kevin; Chervenak, Jay; Finkbeiner, Fred; Kelley, Richard; Lindeman, Mark; Porter, Scott; Saab, Tarek; Stahle, Caroline

    2004-03-11

    We report the latest design and experimental results for a Position-Sensitive Transition-Edge Sensor (PoST). The PoST is motivated by the desire to achieve a larger field-of-view without increasing the number of readout channels. A PoST consists of a one-dimensional array of X-ray absorbers connected on each end to a Transition Edge Sensor (TES). Position differentiation is achieved through a comparison of pulses between the two TESs and X-ray energy is inferred from a sum of the two signals. Optimizing such a device involves studying the available parameter space which includes device properties such as heat capacity and thermal conductivity as well as TES read-out circuitry parameters. We present results for different regimes of operation and the effects on energy resolution, throughput, and position differentiation. Results and implications from a non-linear model developed to study the saturation effects unique to PoSTs are also presented.

  15. Does electronic clinical microbiology results reporting influence medical decision making: A pre- and post-interview study of medical specialists

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M.J. Bruins (Marjan); G. Ruijs (G.); M.J.H.M. Wolfhagen; P. Bloembergen (Peter); J.E.C.M. Aarts (Jos)

    2011-01-01

    textabstractBackground: Clinicians view the accuracy of test results and the turnaround time as the two most important service aspects of the clinical microbiology laboratory. Because of the time needed for the culturing of infectious agents, final hardcopy culture results will often be available to

  16. Dark Stars: Improved Models and First Pulsation Results

    CERN Document Server

    Rindler-Daller, Tanja; Freese, Katherine; Winget, Donald E; Paxton, Bill

    2014-01-01

    (Abridged) We use the stellar evolution code MESA to study dark stars. Dark stars (DSs), which are powered by dark matter (DM) self-annihilation rather than by nuclear fusion, may be the first stars to form in the Universe. We compute stellar models for accreting DSs with masses up to 10^6 M_sun. While previous calculations were limited to polytropic interiors, our current calculations use MESA, a modern stellar evolution code to solve the equations of stellar structure. The heating due to DM annihilation is self-consistently included, assuming extended adiabatic contraction of DM within the minihalos in which DSs form. We find remarkably good overall agreement with the basic results of previous models. There are some differences, however, in the details, with positive implications for observability of DSs. We found that, in the mass range of 10^4 - 10^5 M_sun, using MESA, our DSs are hotter by a factor of 1.5 than those in Freese et al.(2010), are smaller in radius by a factor of 0.6, denser by a factor of 3...

  17. MODELING RESULTS FROM CESIUM ION EXCHANGE PROCESSING WITH SPHERICAL RESINS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nash, C.; Hang, T.; Aleman, S.

    2011-01-03

    Ion exchange modeling was conducted at the Savannah River National Laboratory to compare the performance of two organic resins in support of Small Column Ion Exchange (SCIX). In-tank ion exchange (IX) columns are being considered for cesium removal at Hanford and the Savannah River Site (SRS). The spherical forms of resorcinol formaldehyde ion exchange resin (sRF) as well as a hypothetical spherical SuperLig{reg_sign} 644 (SL644) are evaluated for decontamination of dissolved saltcake wastes (supernates). Both SuperLig{reg_sign} and resorcinol formaldehyde resin beds can exhibit hydraulic problems in their granular (nonspherical) forms. SRS waste is generally lower in potassium and organic components than Hanford waste. Using VERSE-LC Version 7.8 along with the cesium Freundlich/Langmuir isotherms to simulate the waste decontamination in ion exchange columns, spherical SL644 was found to reduce column cycling by 50% for high-potassium supernates, but sRF performed equally well for the lowest-potassium feeds. Reduced cycling results in reduction of nitric acid (resin elution) and sodium addition (resin regeneration), therefore, significantly reducing life-cycle operational costs. These findings motivate the development of a spherical form of SL644. This work demonstrates the versatility of the ion exchange modeling to study the effects of resin characteristics on processing cycles, rates, and cold chemical consumption. The value of a resin with increased selectivity for cesium over potassium can be assessed for further development.

  18. Dipole model test with one superconducting coil; results analysed

    CERN Document Server

    Durante, M; Ferracin, P; Fessia, P; Gauthier, R; Giloux, C; Guinchard, M; Kircher, F; Manil, P; Milanese, A; Millot, J-F; Muñoz Garcia, J-E; Oberli, L; Perez, J-C; Pietrowicz, S; Rifflet, J-M; de Rijk, G; Rondeaux, F; Todesco, E; Viret, P; Ziemianski, D

    2013-01-01

    This report is the deliverable report 7.3.1 “Dipole model test with one superconducting coil; results analysed “. The report has four parts: “Design report for the dipole magnet”, “Dipole magnet structure tested in LN2”, “Nb3Sn strand procured for one dipole magnet” and “One test double pancake copper coil made”. The 4 report parts show that, although the magnet construction will be only completed by end 2014, all elements are present for a successful completion. Due to the importance of the project for the future of the participants and given the significant investments done by the participants, there is a full commitment to finish the project.

  19. Dipole model test with one superconducting coil: results analysed

    CERN Document Server

    Bajas, H; Benda, V; Berriaud, C; Bajko, M; Bottura, L; Caspi, S; Charrondiere, M; Clément, S; Datskov, V; Devaux, M; Durante, M; Fazilleau, P; Ferracin, P; Fessia, P; Gauthier, R; Giloux, C; Guinchard, M; Kircher, F; Manil, P; Milanese, A; Millot, J-F; Muñoz Garcia, J-E; Oberli, L; Perez, J-C; Pietrowicz, S; Rifflet, J-M; de Rijk, G; Rondeaux, F; Todesco, E; Viret, P; Ziemianski, D

    2013-01-01

    This report is the deliverable report 7.3.1 “Dipole model test with one superconducting coil; results analysed “. The report has four parts: “Design report for the dipole magnet”, “Dipole magnet structure tested in LN2”, “Nb3Sn strand procured for one dipole magnet” and “One test double pancake copper coil made”. The 4 report parts show that, although the magnet construction will be only completed by end 2014, all elements are present for a successful completion. Due to the importance of the project for the future of the participants and given the significant investments done by the participants, there is a full commitment to finish the project.

  20. Evidence for the credibility of health economic models for health policy decision-making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Søgaard, Rikke; Lindholt, Jes S.

    2012-01-01

    extracted and the models were assessed for quality against guidelines for best practice by a multidisciplinary team. RESULTS: Seven models were identified and found to provide divergent guidance. Only three reports met 10 of the 15 quality criteria. CONCLUSIONS: Researchers in the field seem to have...... benefited from general advances in health economic modelling and some improvements in reporting were noted. However, the low level of agreement between studies in model structures and assumptions, and difficulty in justifying these (convergent validity), remain a threat to the credibility of health economic...

  1. Further Results on Dynamic Additive Hazard Rate Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhengcheng Zhang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In the past, the proportional and additive hazard rate models have been investigated in the works. Nanda and Das (2011 introduced and studied the dynamic proportional (reversed hazard rate model. In this paper we study the dynamic additive hazard rate model, and investigate its aging properties for different aging classes. The closure of the model under some stochastic orders has also been investigated. Some examples are also given to illustrate different aging properties and stochastic comparisons of the model.

  2. Single-process versus multiple-strategy models of decision making: evidence from an information intrusion paradigm.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Söllner, Anke; Bröder, Arndt; Glöckner, Andreas; Betsch, Tilmann

    2014-02-01

    When decision makers are confronted with different problems and situations, do they use a uniform mechanism as assumed by single-process models (SPMs) or do they choose adaptively from a set of available decision strategies as multiple-strategy models (MSMs) imply? Both frameworks of decision making have gathered a lot of support, but only rarely have they been contrasted with each other. Employing an information intrusion paradigm for multi-attribute decisions from givens, SPM and MSM predictions on information search, decision outcomes, attention, and confidence judgments were derived and tested against each other in two experiments. The results consistently support the SPM view: Participants seemingly using a "take-the-best" (TTB) strategy do not ignore TTB-irrelevant information as MSMs would predict, but adapt the amount of information searched, choose alternative choice options, and show varying confidence judgments contingent on the quality of the "irrelevant" information. The uniformity of these findings underlines the adequacy of the novel information intrusion paradigm and comprehensively promotes the notion of a uniform decision making mechanism as assumed by single-process models. Copyright © 2013 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. Evaluation of automated decision making methodologies and development of an integrated robotic system simulation. Volume 1. Study results

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lowrie, J.W.; Fermelia, A.J.; Haley, D.C.; Gremban, K.D.; Vanbaalen, J.

    1982-09-01

    A variety of artificial intelligence techniques which could be used with regard to NASA space applications and robotics were evaluated. The techniques studied were decision tree manipulators, problem solvers, rule based systems, logic programming languages, representation language languages, and expert systems. The overall structure of a robotic simulation tool was defined and a framework for that tool developed. Nonlinear and linearized dynamics equations were formulated for n link manipulator configurations. A framework for the robotic simulation was established which uses validated manipulator component models connected according to a user defined configuration.

  4. Method for evaluating prediction models that apply the results of randomized trials to individual patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kattan Michael W

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Introduction The clinical significance of a treatment effect demonstrated in a randomized trial is typically assessed by reference to differences in event rates at the group level. An alternative is to make individualized predictions for each patient based on a prediction model. This approach is growing in popularity, particularly for cancer. Despite its intuitive advantages, it remains plausible that some prediction models may do more harm than good. Here we present a novel method for determining whether predictions from a model should be used to apply the results of a randomized trial to individual patients, as opposed to using group level results. Methods We propose applying the prediction model to a data set from a randomized trial and examining the results of patients for whom the treatment arm recommended by a prediction model is congruent with allocation. These results are compared with the strategy of treating all patients through use of a net benefit function that incorporates both the number of patients treated and the outcome. We examined models developed using data sets regarding adjuvant chemotherapy for colorectal cancer and Dutasteride for benign prostatic hypertrophy. Results For adjuvant chemotherapy, we found that patients who would opt for chemotherapy even for small risk reductions, and, conversely, those who would require a very large risk reduction, would on average be harmed by using a prediction model; those with intermediate preferences would on average benefit by allowing such information to help their decision making. Use of prediction could, at worst, lead to the equivalent of an additional death or recurrence per 143 patients; at best it could lead to the equivalent of a reduction in the number of treatments of 25% without an increase in event rates. In the Dutasteride case, where the average benefit of treatment is more modest, there is a small benefit of prediction modelling, equivalent to a reduction of

  5. Elaboration of the definition of genetic counseling into a model for counselee decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bringle, R G; Antley, R M

    1980-01-01

    Genetic counselors are generally trained in genetics only and often have no basis for determining when a counselee has made an informed decision and the counselor's function is complete. A theory of genetic counseling (GC) is offered which interrelates genetic information, psychological responses, learning theory, and decision making, reflecting a shift from a eugenic orientation to an orientation concerned with the physical and mental well-being of counselees. GC is 1st defined as enabling the counselee to comprehend the medical facts of genetic disorders, heredity, risks, and alternatives, as well as to make a healthy adjustment to a family member's disorder and risk of recurrence. The process of learning is broken down into a hierarchical relationship between acquisition, understanding, and personalization of facts, and applied to the GC situation; e.g. "the options are as follows;" "they can be exercised by couples in certain ways;" and "we have the following choices to make." Personalization of knowledge means integration into one's own value system where it will affect decisions made, a process affected by factors such as stress. Often, the information provided by GC is not the only information the counselee possesses, and it will be integrated with other conceptions. Normative social influences (e.g. a family's attitude towards abortion) affect the behavioral intention. And finally, the behavioral intention is not always equivalent to the actual behavior. These process are all related to the way in which a family deals with the stress caused by a genetic disorder. GC outcomes are easier to measure than those of psychological counseling. Extending the model to clinical application implies 1) assessment; 2) setting objectives; 3) counseling; and 4) evaluation.

  6. Risk, reward, and decision-making in a rodent model of cognitive aging.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilbert, Ryan J; Mitchell, Marci R; Simon, Nicholas W; Bañuelos, Cristina; Setlow, Barry; Bizon, Jennifer L

    2011-01-01

    Impaired decision-making in aging can directly impact factors (financial security, health care) that are critical to maintaining quality of life and independence at advanced ages. Naturalistic rodent models mimic human aging in other cognitive domains, and afford the opportunity to parse the effects of age on discrete aspects of decision-making in a manner relatively uncontaminated by experiential factors. Young adult (5-7 months) and aged (23-25 months) male F344 rats were trained on a probability discounting task in which they made discrete-trial choices between a small certain reward (one food pellet) and a large but uncertain reward (two food pellets with varying probabilities of delivery ranging from 100 to 0%). Young rats chose the large reward when it was associated with a high probability of delivery and shifted to the small but certain reward as probability of the large reward decreased. As a group, aged rats performed comparably to young, but there was significantly greater variance among aged rats. One subgroup of aged rats showed strong preference for the small certain reward. This preference was maintained under conditions in which large reward delivery was also certain, suggesting decreased sensitivity to reward magnitude. In contrast, another subgroup of aged rats showed strong preference for the large reward at low probabilities of delivery. Interestingly, this subgroup also showed elevated preference for probabilistic rewards when reward magnitudes were equalized. Previous findings using this same aged study population described strongly attenuated discounting of delayed rewards with age, together suggesting that a subgroup of aged rats may have deficits associated with accounting for reward costs (i.e., delay or probability). These deficits in cost-accounting were dissociable from the age-related differences in sensitivity to reward magnitude, suggesting that aging influences multiple, distinct mechanisms that can impact cost-benefit decision-making.

  7. Risk, reward, and decision-making in a rodent model of cognitive aging

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ryan J Gilbert

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Impaired decision-making in aging can directly impact factors (financial security, quality of healthcare that are critical to maintaining quality of life and independence at advanced ages. Naturalistic rodent models mimic human aging in other cognitive domains, and afford the opportunity to parse the effects of age on discrete aspects of decision-making in a manner relatively uncontaminated by experiential factors. Young adult (5-7 mo. and aged (23-25 mo. male F344 rats were trained on a probability discounting task in which they made discrete-trial choices between a small certain reward (1 food pellet and a large but uncertain reward (2 food pellets with varying probabilities of delivery ranging from 100% to 0%. Young rats chose the large reward when it was associated with a high probability of delivery and shifted to the smaller but certain reward as probability of the large reward decreased. As a group, aged rats performed comparably to young, but there was significantly greater variance among aged rats. One subgroup of aged rats showed strong preference for the small certain reward. This preference was maintained under conditions in which large reward delivery was certain, suggesting decreased sensitivity to reward magnitude. In contrast, another subgroup of aged rats showed strong preference for the large reward at low probabilities of delivery. Interestingly, this subgroup also showed elevated preference for probabilistic rewards when reward magnitudes were equalized. Previous findings using this same aged study population described strongly attenuated discounting of delayed rewards with age, together suggesting that a subgroup of aged rats may have deficits associated with accounting for costs (i.e., delay, probability. These deficits in cost-accounting were dissociable from the age-related differences in sensitivity to reward magnitude, suggesting that aging influences multiple, distinct neural mechanisms that can impact cost

  8. 78 FR 29157 - Certain Digital Models, Digital Data, and Treatment Plans for Use, in Making Incremental Dental...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-05-17

    ... From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office INTERNATIONAL TRADE COMMISSION Certain Digital Models, Digital Data, and Treatment Plans for Use, in Making Incremental Dental Positioning Adjustment Appliances Made Therefrom, and Methods of Making the Same Investigation No. 337-...

  9. The effects of juvenile stress on anxiety, cognitive bias and decision making in adulthood: a rat model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nichola M Brydges

    Full Text Available Stress experienced in childhood is associated with an increased risk of developing psychiatric disorders in adulthood. These disorders are particularly characterized by disturbances to emotional and cognitive processes, which are not currently fully modeled in animals. Assays of cognitive bias have recently been used with animals to give an indication of their emotional/cognitive state. We used a cognitive bias test, alongside a traditional measure of anxiety (elevated plus maze, to investigate the effects of juvenile stress (JS on adulthood behaviour using a rodent model. During the cognitive bias test, animals were trained to discriminate between two reward bowls based on a stimulus (rough/smooth sandpaper encountered before they reached the bowls. One stimulus (e.g. rough was associated with a lower value reward than the other (e.g. smooth. Once rats were trained, their cognitive bias was explored through the presentation of an ambiguous stimulus (intermediate grade sandpaper: a rat was classed as optimistic if it chose the bowl ordinarily associated with the high value reward. JS animals were lighter than controls, exhibited increased anxiety-like behaviour in the elevated plus maze and were more optimistic in the cognitive bias test. This increased optimism may represent an optimal foraging strategy for these underweight animals. JS animals were also faster than controls to make a decision when presented with an ambiguous stimulus, suggesting altered decision making. These results demonstrate that stress in the juvenile phase can increase anxiety-like behaviour and alter cognitive bias and decision making in adulthood in a rat model.

  10. Election turnout statistics in many countries: similarities, differences, and a diffusive field model for decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borghesi, Christian; Raynal, Jean-Claude; Bouchaud, Jean-Philippe

    2012-01-01

    We study in details the turnout rate statistics for 77 elections in 11 different countries. We show that the empirical results established in a previous paper for French elections appear to hold much more generally. We find in particular that the spatial correlation of turnout rates decay logarithmically with distance in all cases. This result is quantitatively reproduced by a decision model that assumes that each voter makes his mind as a result of three influence terms: one totally idiosyncratic component, one city-specific term with short-ranged fluctuations in space, and one long-ranged correlated field which propagates diffusively in space. A detailed analysis reveals several interesting features: for example, different countries have different degrees of local heterogeneities and seem to be characterized by a different propensity for individuals to conform to the cultural norm. We furthermore find clear signs of herding (i.e., strongly correlated decisions at the individual level) in some countries, but not in others.

  11. Election turnout statistics in many countries: similarities, differences, and a diffusive field model for decision-making

    CERN Document Server

    Borghesi, Christian; Bouchaud, Jean-Philippe

    2012-01-01

    We study in details the turnout rate statistics for 77 elections in 11 different countries. We show that the empirical results established in a previous paper for French elections appear to hold much more generally. We find in particular that the spatial correlation of turnout rates decay logarithmically with distance in all cases. This result is quantitatively reproduced by a decision model that assumes that each voter makes his mind as a result of three influence terms: one totally idiosyncratic component, one city-specific term with short-ranged fluctuations in space, and one long-ranged correlated field which propagates diffusively in space. A detailed analysis reveals several interesting features: for example, different countries have different degrees of local heterogeneities and seem to be characterized by a different propensity for individuals to conform to the cultural norm. We furthermore find clear signs of herding (i.e. strongly correlated decisions at the individual level) in some countries, but ...

  12. Can plasticity make spatial structure irrelevant in individual-tree models?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oscar García

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Background Distance-dependent individual-tree models have commonly been found to add little predictive power to that of distance-independent ones. One possible reason is plasticity, the ability of trees to lean and to alter crown and root development to better occupy available growing space. Being able to redeploy foliage (and roots into canopy gaps and less contested areas can diminish the importance of stem ground locations. Methods Plasticity was simulated for 3 intensively measured forest stands, to see to what extent and under what conditions the allocation of resources (e.g., light to the individual trees depended on their ground coordinates. The data came from 50 × 60 m stem-mapped plots in natural monospecific stands of jack pine, trembling aspen and black spruce from central Canada. Explicit perfect-plasticity equations were derived for tessellation-type models. Results Qualitatively similar simulation results were obtained under a variety of modelling assumptions. The effects of plasticity varied somewhat with stand uniformity and with assumed plasticity limits and other factors. Stand-level implications for canopy depth, distribution modelling and total productivity were examined. Conclusions Generally, under what seem like conservative maximum plasticity constraints, spatial structure accounted for less than 10% of the variance in resource allocation. The perfect-plasticity equations approximated well the simulation results from tessellation models, but not those from models with less extreme competition asymmetry. Whole-stand perfect plasticity approximations seem an attractive alternative to individual-tree models.

  13. Mouse Model of Neurological Complications Resulting from Encephalitic Alphavirus Infection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ronca, Shannon E.; Smith, Jeanon; Koma, Takaaki; Miller, Magda M.; Yun, Nadezhda; Dineley, Kelly T.; Paessler, Slobodan

    2017-01-01

    Long-term neurological complications, termed sequelae, can result from viral encephalitis, which are not well understood. In human survivors, alphavirus encephalitis can cause severe neurobehavioral changes, in the most extreme cases, a schizophrenic-like syndrome. In the present study, we aimed to adapt an animal model of alphavirus infection survival to study the development of these long-term neurological complications. Upon low-dose infection of wild-type C57B/6 mice, asymptomatic and symptomatic groups were established and compared to mock-infected mice to measure general health and baseline neurological function, including the acoustic startle response and prepulse inhibition paradigm. Prepulse inhibition is a robust operational measure of sensorimotor gating, a fundamental form of information processing. Deficits in prepulse inhibition manifest as the inability to filter out extraneous sensory stimuli. Sensory gating is disrupted in schizophrenia and other mental disorders, as well as neurodegenerative diseases. Symptomatic mice developed deficits in prepulse inhibition that lasted through 6 months post infection; these deficits were absent in asymptomatic or mock-infected groups. Accompanying prepulse inhibition deficits, symptomatic animals exhibited thalamus damage as visualized with H&E staining, as well as increased GFAP expression in the posterior complex of the thalamus and dentate gyrus of the hippocampus. These histological changes and increased GFAP expression were absent in the asymptomatic and mock-infected animals, indicating that glial scarring could have contributed to the prepulse inhibition phenotype observed in the symptomatic animals. This model provides a tool to test mechanisms of and treatments for the neurological sequelae of viral encephalitis and begins to delineate potential explanations for the development of such sequelae post infection.

  14. Multiscale modelling and analysis of collective decision making in swarm robotics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vigelius, Matthias; Meyer, Bernd; Pascoe, Geoffrey

    2014-01-01

    We present a unified approach to describing certain types of collective decision making in swarm robotics that bridges from a microscopic individual-based description to aggregate properties. Our approach encompasses robot swarm experiments, microscopic and probabilistic macroscopic-discrete simulations as well as an analytic mathematical model. Following up on previous work, we identify the symmetry parameter, a measure of the progress of the swarm towards a decision, as a fundamental integrated swarm property and formulate its time evolution as a continuous-time Markov process. Contrary to previous work, which justified this approach only empirically and a posteriori, we justify it from first principles and derive hard limits on the parameter regime in which it is applicable.

  15. Multiscale modelling and analysis of collective decision making in swarm robotics.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthias Vigelius

    Full Text Available We present a unified approach to describing certain types of collective decision making in swarm robotics that bridges from a microscopic individual-based description to aggregate properties. Our approach encompasses robot swarm experiments, microscopic and probabilistic macroscopic-discrete simulations as well as an analytic mathematical model. Following up on previous work, we identify the symmetry parameter, a measure of the progress of the swarm towards a decision, as a fundamental integrated swarm property and formulate its time evolution as a continuous-time Markov process. Contrary to previous work, which justified this approach only empirically and a posteriori, we justify it from first principles and derive hard limits on the parameter regime in which it is applicable.

  16. Using an ethical decision-making model to determine consequences for student plagiarism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiehl, Ermalynn M

    2006-06-01

    The incidence of plagiarism, intentional or unintentional, in the professional nursing arena has increased in recent years, as has the occurrence of plagiarism among nursing students. Strategies for cheating have become very sophisticated with the use of aids such as personal digital assistants, camera phones, and instant messaging. Cheating on written papers has also increased. The Internet provides students with ready-made research and academic papers, and access to Web sites on a plethora of topics. In this article, I describe my experience with plagiarism of ethics papers during students' final semester before graduation. How I discovered the plagiarized work and used the A-B-C-D-E ethical decision-making model in determining the student consequences for the event are presented.

  17. Challenges in Computational Social Modeling and Simulation for National Security Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-06-01

    need to be addressed before computational social models are ready for “ prime time” application in national security decision-making environments...in http://defense- update.com/newscast/0308/news/news0703_iednetworks.htm) and an Erdos -Renyi random graph ith the same number of nodes and density...SAS 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 P roportion per B ar 0 10 20 30 40 D E G R E E 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 ERDOS 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 P roportion per B ar 0

  18. Optimizing Negotiation Conflict in the Cloud Service Negotiation Framework Using Probabilistic Decision Making Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rajavel, Rajkumar; Thangarathinam, Mala

    2015-01-01

    Optimization of negotiation conflict in the cloud service negotiation framework is identified as one of the major challenging issues. This negotiation conflict occurs during the bilateral negotiation process between the participants due to the misperception, aggressive behavior, and uncertain preferences and goals about their opponents. Existing research work focuses on the prerequest context of negotiation conflict optimization by grouping similar negotiation pairs using distance, binary, context-dependent, and fuzzy similarity approaches. For some extent, these approaches can maximize the success rate and minimize the communication overhead among the participants. To further optimize the success rate and communication overhead, the proposed research work introduces a novel probabilistic decision making model for optimizing the negotiation conflict in the long-term negotiation context. This decision model formulates the problem of managing different types of negotiation conflict that occurs during negotiation process as a multistage Markov decision problem. At each stage of negotiation process, the proposed decision model generates the heuristic decision based on the past negotiation state information without causing any break-off among the participants. In addition, this heuristic decision using the stochastic decision tree scenario can maximize the revenue among the participants available in the cloud service negotiation framework. PMID:26543899

  19. Optimizing Negotiation Conflict in the Cloud Service Negotiation Framework Using Probabilistic Decision Making Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rajavel, Rajkumar; Thangarathinam, Mala

    2015-01-01

    Optimization of negotiation conflict in the cloud service negotiation framework is identified as one of the major challenging issues. This negotiation conflict occurs during the bilateral negotiation process between the participants due to the misperception, aggressive behavior, and uncertain preferences and goals about their opponents. Existing research work focuses on the prerequest context of negotiation conflict optimization by grouping similar negotiation pairs using distance, binary, context-dependent, and fuzzy similarity approaches. For some extent, these approaches can maximize the success rate and minimize the communication overhead among the participants. To further optimize the success rate and communication overhead, the proposed research work introduces a novel probabilistic decision making model for optimizing the negotiation conflict in the long-term negotiation context. This decision model formulates the problem of managing different types of negotiation conflict that occurs during negotiation process as a multistage Markov decision problem. At each stage of negotiation process, the proposed decision model generates the heuristic decision based on the past negotiation state information without causing any break-off among the participants. In addition, this heuristic decision using the stochastic decision tree scenario can maximize the revenue among the participants available in the cloud service negotiation framework.

  20. Optimizing Negotiation Conflict in the Cloud Service Negotiation Framework Using Probabilistic Decision Making Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rajkumar Rajavel

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Optimization of negotiation conflict in the cloud service negotiation framework is identified as one of the major challenging issues. This negotiation conflict occurs during the bilateral negotiation process between the participants due to the misperception, aggressive behavior, and uncertain preferences and goals about their opponents. Existing research work focuses on the prerequest context of negotiation conflict optimization by grouping similar negotiation pairs using distance, binary, context-dependent, and fuzzy similarity approaches. For some extent, these approaches can maximize the success rate and minimize the communication overhead among the participants. To further optimize the success rate and communication overhead, the proposed research work introduces a novel probabilistic decision making model for optimizing the negotiation conflict in the long-term negotiation context. This decision model formulates the problem of managing different types of negotiation conflict that occurs during negotiation process as a multistage Markov decision problem. At each stage of negotiation process, the proposed decision model generates the heuristic decision based on the past negotiation state information without causing any break-off among the participants. In addition, this heuristic decision using the stochastic decision tree scenario can maximize the revenue among the participants available in the cloud service negotiation framework.