WorldWideScience

Sample records for models making results

  1. Model : making

    OpenAIRE

    Bottle, Neil

    2013-01-01

    The Model : making exhibition was curated by Brian Kennedy in collaboration with Allies & Morrison in September 2013. For the London Design Festival, the Model : making exhibition looked at the increased use of new technologies by both craft-makers and architectural model makers. In both practices traditional ways of making by hand are increasingly being combined with the latest technologies of digital imaging, laser cutting, CNC machining and 3D printing. This exhibition focussed on ...

  2. SModelS: A Tool for Making Systematic Use of Simplified Models Results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waltenberger, Wolfgang; SModelS Group

    2016-10-01

    We present an automated software tool ”SModelS” to systematically confront theories Beyond the Standard Model (BSM) with experimental data. The tool consists of a general procedure to decompose such BSM theories into their Simplified Models Spectra (SMS). In addition, SModelS features a database containing the majority of the published SMS results of CMS and ATLAS. These results consist of the 95% confidence level upper limits on signal production cross sections. The two components together allow us to quickly confront any BSM model with LHC results. As a show-case example we will briefly discuss an application of our procedure to a specific supersymmetric model. It is one of our ongoing efforts to extend the framework to include also efficiency maps produced either by the experimental collaborations, by efforts performed within the phenomenological groups, or possibly also by ourselves. While the current implementation can handle null results only, it is our ultimate goal to build the Next Standard Model in a bottom-up fashion from both negative and positive results of several experiments. The implementation is open source, written in python, and available from http://smodels.hephy.at.

  3. Making business models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gudiksen, Sune Klok; Poulsen, Søren Bolvig; Buur, Jacob

    2014-01-01

    Well-established companies are currently struggling to secure profits due to the pressure from new players' business models as they take advantage of communication technology and new business-model configurations. Because of this, the business model research field flourishes currently; however, t...... illustrates how the application of participatory business model design toolsets can open up discussions on alternative scenarios through improvisation, mock-up making and design game playing, before qualitative judgment on the most promising scenario is carried out....

  4. Making ecological models adequate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Getz, Wayne M.; Marshall, Charles R.; Carlson, Colin J.; Giuggioli, Luca; Ryan, Sadie J.; Romañach, Stephanie; Boettiger, Carl; Chamberlain, Samuel D.; Larsen, Laurel; D'Odorico, Paolo; O'Sullivan, David

    2018-01-01

    Critical evaluation of the adequacy of ecological models is urgently needed to enhance their utility in developing theory and enabling environmental managers and policymakers to make informed decisions. Poorly supported management can have detrimental, costly or irreversible impacts on the environment and society. Here, we examine common issues in ecological modelling and suggest criteria for improving modelling frameworks. An appropriate level of process description is crucial to constructing the best possible model, given the available data and understanding of ecological structures. Model details unsupported by data typically lead to over parameterisation and poor model performance. Conversely, a lack of mechanistic details may limit a model's ability to predict ecological systems’ responses to management. Ecological studies that employ models should follow a set of model adequacy assessment protocols that include: asking a series of critical questions regarding state and control variable selection, the determinacy of data, and the sensitivity and validity of analyses. We also need to improve model elaboration, refinement and coarse graining procedures to better understand the relevancy and adequacy of our models and the role they play in advancing theory, improving hind and forecasting, and enabling problem solving and management.

  5. Make-up of injector test stand (ITS-1) and preliminary results with Model-I ion source

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matsuda, S.; Ito, T.; Kondo, U.; Ohara, Y.; Oga, T.; Shibata, T.; Shirakata, H.; Sugawara, T.; Tanaka, S.

    Constitution of the 1-st injector test stand (ITS-1) in the Thermonuclear Division, JAERI, and the performance of the Model-I ion source are described. Heating a plasma by neutral beam injection is one of the promising means in the thermonuclear fusion devices. Purpose of the test stand is to develop the ion sources used in such injection systems. The test stand was completed in February 1975, which is capable of testing the ion sources up to 12 amps at 30 kV. A hydrogen ion beam of 5.5 amps at 25 kV was obtained in the Model-I ion source

  6. A neural model of decision making

    OpenAIRE

    Larsen, Torben

    2008-01-01

    Background: A descriptive neuroeconomic model is aimed for relativity of the concept of economic man to empirical science.Method: A 4-level client-server-integrator model integrating the brain models of McLean and Luria is the general framework for the model of empirical findings.Results: Decision making relies on integration across brain levels of emotional intelligence (LU) and logico-matematico intelligence (RIA), respectively. The integrated decision making formula approaching zero by bot...

  7. Making Deformable Template Models Operational

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fisker, Rune

    2000-01-01

    for estimation of the model parameters, which applies a combination of a maximum likelihood and minimum distance criterion. Another contribution is a very fast search based initialization algorithm using a filter interpretation of the likelihood model. These two methods can be applied to most deformable template......Deformable template models are a very popular and powerful tool within the field of image processing and computer vision. This thesis treats this type of models extensively with special focus on handling their common difficulties, i.e. model parameter selection, initialization and optimization....... A proper handling of the common difficulties is essential for making the models operational by a non-expert user, which is a requirement for intensifying and commercializing the use of deformable template models. The thesis is organized as a collection of the most important articles, which has been...

  8. Computer modeling of human decision making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gevarter, William B.

    1991-01-01

    Models of human decision making are reviewed. Models which treat just the cognitive aspects of human behavior are included as well as models which include motivation. Both models which have associated computer programs, and those that do not, are considered. Since flow diagrams, that assist in constructing computer simulation of such models, were not generally available, such diagrams were constructed and are presented. The result provides a rich source of information, which can aid in construction of more realistic future simulations of human decision making.

  9. Modeling prioritized multicriteria decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yager, Ronald R

    2004-12-01

    We consider the problem of multicriteria decision making (MCDM) in the situation in which there exists a prioritization of criteria. A good example of prioritization among criteria occurs in the case of air travel, where concerns about passenger safety have a higher priority then economic concerns. Tradeoffs between saving on gasoline usage and jeopardizing passenger safety are unacceptable. We show how this prioritization of criteria can be modeled by using importance weights in which the weights associated with the lower priority criteria are related to the satisfaction of the higher priority criteria. We provide some models that allow for the formalization of these prioritized MCDM problems using both the Bellman-Zadeh paradigm for MCDM and the ordered weighted averaging (OWA) operator method.

  10. Atmospheric Deposition Modeling Results

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — This asset provides data on model results for dry and total deposition of sulfur, nitrogen and base cation species. Components include deposition velocities, dry...

  11. Participatory modeling and structured decision making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinson, Kelly F.; Fuller, Angela K.

    2016-01-01

    Structured decision making (SDM) provides a framework for making sound decisions even when faced with uncertainty, and is a transparent, defensible, and replicable method used to understand complex problems. A hallmark of SDM is the explicit incorporation of values and science, which often includes participation from multiple stakeholders, helping to garner trust and ultimately result in a decision that is more likely to be implemented. The core steps in the SDM process are used to structure thinking about natural resources management choices, and include: (1) properly defining the problem and the decision context, (2) determining the objectives that help describe the aspirations of the decision maker, (3) devising management actions or alternatives that can achieve those objectives, (4) evaluating the outcomes or consequences of each alternative on each of the objectives, (5) evaluating trade-offs, and (6) implementing the decision. Participatory modeling for SDM includes engaging stakeholders in some or all of the steps of the SDM process listed above. In addition, participatory modeling often is crucial for creating qualitative and quantitative models of how the system works, providing data for these models, and eliciting expert opinion when data are unavailable. In these ways, SDM provides a framework for decision making in natural resources management that includes participation from stakeholder groups throughout the process, including the modeling phase.

  12. Rule-based decision making model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sirola, Miki

    1998-01-01

    A rule-based decision making model is designed in G2 environment. A theoretical and methodological frame for the model is composed and motivated. The rule-based decision making model is based on object-oriented modelling, knowledge engineering and decision theory. The idea of safety objective tree is utilized. Advanced rule-based methodologies are applied. A general decision making model 'decision element' is constructed. The strategy planning of the decision element is based on e.g. value theory and utility theory. A hypothetical process model is built to give input data for the decision element. The basic principle of the object model in decision making is division in tasks. Probability models are used in characterizing component availabilities. Bayes' theorem is used to recalculate the probability figures when new information is got. The model includes simple learning features to save the solution path. A decision analytic interpretation is given to the decision making process. (author)

  13. Optimal Decision Making in Neural Inhibition Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Ravenzwaaij, Don; van der Maas, Han L. J.; Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan

    2012-01-01

    In their influential "Psychological Review" article, Bogacz, Brown, Moehlis, Holmes, and Cohen (2006) discussed optimal decision making as accomplished by the drift diffusion model (DDM). The authors showed that neural inhibition models, such as the leaky competing accumulator model (LCA) and the feedforward inhibition model (FFI), can mimic the…

  14. Optimal decision making in neural inhibition models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Ravenzwaaij, D.; van der Maas, H.L.J.; Wagenmakers, E.-J.

    2012-01-01

    In their influential Psychological Review article, Bogacz, Brown, Moehlis, Holmes, and Cohen (2006) discussed optimal decision making as accomplished by the drift diffusion model (DDM). The authors showed that neural inhibition models, such as the leaky competing accumulator model (LCA) and the

  15. The morals of model-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sterrett, S G

    2014-06-01

    I address questions about values in model-making in engineering, specifically: Might the role of values be attributable solely to interests involved in specifying and using the model? Selected examples illustrate the surprisingly wide variety of things one must take into account in the model-making itself. The notions of system (as used in engineering thermodynamics), and physically similar systems (as used in the physical sciences) are important and powerful in determining what is relevant to an engineering model. Another example (windfarms) illustrates how an idea to completely re-characterize, or reframe, an engineering problem arose during model-making. I employ a qualitative analogue of the notion of physically similar systems. Historical cases can thus be drawn upon; I illustrate with a comparison between a geoengineering proposal to inject, or spray, sulfate aerosols, and two different historical cases involving the spraying of DDT (fire ant eradication; malaria eradication). The current geoengineering proposal is seen to be like the disastrous and counterproductive case, and unlike the successful case, of the spraying of DDT. I conclude by explaining my view that model-making in science is analogous to moral perception in action, drawing on a view in moral theory that has come to be called moral particularism.

  16. Shared Problem Models and Crew Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orasanu, Judith; Statler, Irving C. (Technical Monitor)

    1994-01-01

    The importance of crew decision making to aviation safety has been well established through NTSB accident analyses: Crew judgment and decision making have been cited as causes or contributing factors in over half of all accidents in commercial air transport, general aviation, and military aviation. Yet the bulk of research on decision making has not proven helpful in improving the quality of decisions in the cockpit. One reason is that traditional analytic decision models are inappropriate to the dynamic complex nature of cockpit decision making and do not accurately describe what expert human decision makers do when they make decisions. A new model of dynamic naturalistic decision making is offered that may prove more useful for training or aiding cockpit decision making. Based on analyses of crew performance in full-mission simulation and National Transportation Safety Board accident reports, features that define effective decision strategies in abnormal or emergency situations have been identified. These include accurate situation assessment (including time and risk assessment), appreciation of the complexity of the problem, sensitivity to constraints on the decision, timeliness of the response, and use of adequate information. More effective crews also manage their workload to provide themselves with time and resources to make good decisions. In brief, good decisions are appropriate to the demands of the situation and reflect the crew's metacognitive skill. Effective crew decision making and overall performance are mediated by crew communication. Communication contributes to performance because it assures that all crew members have essential information, but it also regulates and coordinates crew actions and is the medium of collective thinking in response to a problem. This presentation will examine the relation between communication that serves to build performance. Implications of these findings for crew training will be discussed.

  17. Modeling as a Decision-Making Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bleiler-Baxter, Sarah K.; Stephens, D. Christopher; Baxter, Wesley A.; Barlow, Angela T.

    2017-01-01

    The goal in this article is to support teachers in better understanding what it means to model with mathematics by focusing on three key decision-making processes: Simplification, Relationship Mapping, and Situation Analysis. The authors use the Theme Park task to help teachers develop a vision of how students engage in these three decision-making…

  18. Human-centric decision-making models for social sciences

    CERN Document Server

    Pedrycz, Witold

    2014-01-01

    The volume delivers a wealth of effective methods to deal with various types of uncertainty inherently existing in human-centric decision problems. It elaborates on  comprehensive decision frameworks to handle different decision scenarios, which help use effectively the explicit and tacit knowledge and intuition, model perceptions and preferences in a more human-oriented style. The book presents original approaches and delivers new results on fundamentals and applications related to human-centered decision making approaches to business, economics and social systems. Individual chapters cover multi-criteria (multiattribute) decision making, decision making with prospect theory, decision making with incomplete probabilistic information, granular models of decision making and decision making realized with the use of non-additive measures. New emerging decision theories being presented as along with a wide spectrum of ongoing research make the book valuable to all interested in the field of advanced decision-mak...

  19. Evolution of quantum-like modeling in decision making processes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khrennikova, Polina

    2012-01-01

    The application of the mathematical formalism of quantum mechanics to model behavioral patterns in social science and economics is a novel and constantly emerging field. The aim of the so called 'quantum like' models is to model the decision making processes in a macroscopic setting, capturing the particular 'context' in which the decisions are taken. Several subsequent empirical findings proved that when making a decision people tend to violate the axioms of expected utility theory and Savage's Sure Thing principle, thus violating the law of total probability. A quantum probability formula was devised to describe more accurately the decision making processes. A next step in the development of QL-modeling in decision making was the application of Schrödinger equation to describe the evolution of people's mental states. A shortcoming of Schrödinger equation is its inability to capture dynamics of an open system; the brain of the decision maker can be regarded as such, actively interacting with the external environment. Recently the master equation, by which quantum physics describes the process of decoherence as the result of interaction of the mental state with the environmental 'bath', was introduced for modeling the human decision making. The external environment and memory can be referred to as a complex 'context' influencing the final decision outcomes. The master equation can be considered as a pioneering and promising apparatus for modeling the dynamics of decision making in different contexts.

  20. Evolution of quantum-like modeling in decision making processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khrennikova, Polina

    2012-12-01

    The application of the mathematical formalism of quantum mechanics to model behavioral patterns in social science and economics is a novel and constantly emerging field. The aim of the so called 'quantum like' models is to model the decision making processes in a macroscopic setting, capturing the particular 'context' in which the decisions are taken. Several subsequent empirical findings proved that when making a decision people tend to violate the axioms of expected utility theory and Savage's Sure Thing principle, thus violating the law of total probability. A quantum probability formula was devised to describe more accurately the decision making processes. A next step in the development of QL-modeling in decision making was the application of Schrödinger equation to describe the evolution of people's mental states. A shortcoming of Schrödinger equation is its inability to capture dynamics of an open system; the brain of the decision maker can be regarded as such, actively interacting with the external environment. Recently the master equation, by which quantum physics describes the process of decoherence as the result of interaction of the mental state with the environmental 'bath', was introduced for modeling the human decision making. The external environment and memory can be referred to as a complex 'context' influencing the final decision outcomes. The master equation can be considered as a pioneering and promising apparatus for modeling the dynamics of decision making in different contexts.

  1. FUZZY DECISION MAKING MODEL FOR BYZANTINE AGREEMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. MURUGAN

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Byzantine fault tolerance is of high importance in the distributed computing environment where malicious attacks and software errors are common. A Byzantine process sends arbitrary messages to every other process. An effective fuzzy decision making approach is proposed to eliminate the Byzantine behaviour of the services in the distributed environment. It is proposed to derive a fuzzy decision set in which the alternatives are ranked with grade of membership and based on that an appropriate decision can be arrived on the messages sent by the different services. A balanced decision is to be taken from the messages received across the services. To accomplish this, Hurwicz criterion is used to balance the optimistic and pessimistic views of the decision makers on different services. Grades of membership for the services are assessed using the non-functional Quality of Service parameters and have been estimated using fuzzy entropy measure which logically ranks the participant services. This approach for decision making is tested by varying the number of processes, varying the number of faulty services, varying the message values sent to different services and considering the variation in the views of the decision makers about the services. The experimental result shows that the decision reached is an enhanced one and in case of conflict, the proposed approach provides a concrete result, whereas decision taken using the Lamport’s algorithm is an arbitrary one.

  2. Models in environmental regulatory decision making

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Committee on Models in the Regulatory Decision Process; National Research Council; Division on Earth and Life Studies; National Research Council

    2007-01-01

    .... The centerpiece of the book's recommended vision is a life-cycle approach to model evaluation which includes peer review, corroboration of results, and other activities. This will enhance the agency's ability to respond to requirements from a 2001 law on information quality and improve policy development and implementation.

  3. Modeling decision making as a support tool for policy making on renewable energy development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cannemi, Marco; García-Melón, Mónica; Aragonés-Beltrán, Pablo; Gómez-Navarro, Tomás

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents the findings of a study on decision making models for the analysis of capital-risk investors’ preferences on biomass power plants projects. The aim of the work is to improve the support tools for policy makers in the field of renewable energy development. Analytic Network Process (ANP) helps to better understand capital-risk investors preferences towards different kinds of biomass fueled power plants. The results of the research allow public administration to better foresee the investors’ reaction to the incentive system, or to modify the incentive system to better drive investors’ decisions. Changing the incentive system is seen as major risk by investors. Therefore, public administration must design better and longer-term incentive systems, forecasting market reactions. For that, two scenarios have been designed, one showing a typical decision making process and another proposing an improved decision making scenario. A case study conducted in Italy has revealed that ANP allows understanding how capital-risk investors interpret the situation and make decisions when investing on biomass power plants; the differences between the interests of public administrations’s and promoters’, how decision making could be influenced by adding new decision criteria, and which case would be ranked best according to the decision models. - Highlights: • We applied ANP to the investors’ preferences on biomass power plants projects. • The aim is to improve the advising tools for renewable energy policy making. • A case study has been carried out with the help of two experts. • We designed two scenarios: decision making as it is and how could it be improved. • Results prove ANP is a fruitful tool enhancing participation and transparency

  4. Consumer decision-making with regard to organic food products: Results from the CONDOR project

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thøgersen, John

    Based on a survey in eight European countries, a model of consumer decision making and behaviour with regard to organic food is presented as well as comparative results. It is found that the reasons given and the reasoning behind choosing organic products are quite similar across countries...

  5. A Model Career Decision-Making Course

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dwight, Alice Heasley

    1975-01-01

    Essex Community College (Maryland) has instituted a one-credit course in career decision-making. The course is designed to aid the college student and the older adult in making a career-oriented assessment of personality needs, capacities, interests, and values with additional emphasis on local and national manpower needs. (Author/DC)

  6. Landslide risk models for decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonachea, Jaime; Remondo, Juan; de Terán, José Ramón Díaz; González-Díez, Alberto; Cendrero, Antonio

    2009-11-01

    This contribution presents a quantitative procedure for landslide risk analysis and zoning considering hazard, exposure (or value of elements at risk), and vulnerability. The method provides the means to obtain landslide risk models (expressing expected damage due to landslides on material elements and economic activities in monetary terms, according to different scenarios and periods) useful to identify areas where mitigation efforts will be most cost effective. It allows identifying priority areas for the implementation of actions to reduce vulnerability (elements) or hazard (processes). The procedure proposed can also be used as a preventive tool, through its application to strategic environmental impact analysis (SEIA) of land-use plans. The underlying hypothesis is that reliable predictions about hazard and risk can be made using models based on a detailed analysis of past landslide occurrences in connection with conditioning factors and data on past damage. The results show that the approach proposed and the hypothesis formulated are essentially correct, providing estimates of the order of magnitude of expected losses for a given time period. Uncertainties, strengths, and shortcomings of the procedure and results obtained are discussed and potential lines of research to improve the models are indicated. Finally, comments and suggestions are provided to generalize this type of analysis.

  7. Dissolving decision making? : Models and their roles in decision-making processes and policy at large

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zeiss, Ragna; van Egmond, S.

    2014-01-01

    This article studies the roles three science-based models play in Dutch policy and decision making processes. Key is the interaction between model construction and environment. Their political and scientific environments form contexts that shape the roles of models in policy decision making.

  8. Consumer's Online Shopping Influence Factors and Decision-Making Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Xiangbin; Dai, Shiliang

    Previous research on online consumer behavior has mostly been confined to the perceived risk which is used to explain those barriers for purchasing online. However, perceived benefit is another important factor which influences consumers’ decision when shopping online. As a result, an integrated consumer online shopping decision-making model is developed which contains three elements—Consumer, Product, and Web Site. This model proposed relative factors which influence the consumers’ intention during the online shopping progress, and divided them into two different dimensions—mentally level and material level. We tested those factors with surveys, from both online volunteers and offline paper surveys with more than 200 samples. With the help of SEM, the experimental results show that the proposed model and method can be used to analyze consumer’s online shopping decision-making process effectively.

  9. Clinical models of decision making in addiction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koffarnus, Mikhail N; Kaplan, Brent A

    2018-01-01

    As research on decision making in addiction accumulates, it is increasingly clear that decision-making processes are dysfunctional in addiction and that this dysfunction may be fundamental to the initiation and maintenance of addictive behavior. How drug-dependent individuals value and choose among drug and nondrug rewards is consistently different from non-dependent individuals. The present review focuses on the assessment of decision-making in addiction. We cover the common behavioral tasks that have shown to be fruitful in decision-making research and highlight analytical and graphical considerations, when available, to facilitate comparisons within and among studies. Delay discounting tasks, drug demand tasks, drug choice tasks, the Iowa Gambling Task, and the Balloon Analogue Risk Task are included. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. A Model of Dynamic Strategy-Making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Torben Juul; Hallin, Carina Antonia; Li, Xin

    The organizational capacity to cope with unexpected changes remains a fundamental challenge in strategy as global competition and technological innovation increase environmental uncertainty. Conventional strategy-making is often conceived as a sequential linear process where we see it as a non......-Yang elements and Zhong Yong balance to explain the time bound interaction between these opposing yet complementary strategy-making mechanisms where tradeoffs and synergies are balanced across hierarchical levels....

  11. Making ethical choices: a comprehensive decision-making model for Canadian psychologists.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hadjistavropoulos, T; Malloy, D C

    2000-05-01

    This paper proposes a theoretical augmentation of the seven-step decision-making model outlined in the Canadian Code of Ethics for Psychologists. We propose that teleological, deontological, and existential ethical perspectives should be taken into account in the decision-making process. We also consider the influence of individual, issue-specific, significant-other, situational, and external factors on ethical decision-making. This theoretical analysis demonstrates the richness and complexity of ethical decision-making.

  12. Expected Utility and Sequential Elimination Models of Career Decision Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaffer, Michal; Lichtenberg, James W.

    Decision-making strategies have traditionally been classified as either prescriptive/normative or descriptive/behavioral in nature. Proponents of prescriptive/normative decision-making models attempt to develop procedures for making optimal decisions while proponents of the descriptive/behavioral models look for a choice that meets a minimal set…

  13. Dissolving decision making? Models and their roles in decision-making processes and policy at large.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeiss, Ragna; van Egmond, Stans

    2014-12-01

    This article studies the roles three science-based models play in Dutch policy and decision making processes. Key is the interaction between model construction and environment. Their political and scientific environments form contexts that shape the roles of models in policy decision making. Attention is paid to three aspects of the wider context of the models: a) the history of the construction process; b) (changes in) the political and scientific environments; and c) the use in policy processes over longer periods of time. Models are more successfully used when they are constructed in a stable political and scientific environment. Stability and certainty within a scientific field seems to be a key predictor for the usefulness of models for policy making. The economic model is more disputed than the ecology-based model and the model that has its theoretical foundation in physics and chemistry. The roles models play in policy processes are too complex to be considered as straightforward technocratic powers.

  14. The making of the standard model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hooft, G. 't

    2007-01-01

    The standard model of particle physics is more than a model. It is a detailed theory that encompasses nearly all that is known about the subatomic particles and forces in a concise set of principles and equations. The extensive research that culminated in this model includes numerous small and

  15. Quantum-Like Bayesian Networks for Modeling Decision Making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Catarina eMoreira

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In this work, we explore an alternative quantum structure to perform quantum probabilistic inferences to accommodate the paradoxical findings of the Sure Thing Principle. We propose a Quantum-Like Bayesian Network, which consists in replacing classical probabilities by quantum probability amplitudes. However, since this approach suffers from the problem of exponential growth of quantum parameters, we also propose a similarity heuristic that automatically fits quantum parameters through vector similarities. This makes the proposed model general and predictive in contrast to the current state of the art models, which cannot be generalized for more complex decision scenarios and that only provide an explanatory nature for the observed paradoxes. In the end, the model that we propose consists in a nonparametric method for estimating inference effects from a statistical point of view. It is a statistical model that is simpler than the previous quantum dynamic and quantum-like models proposed in the literature. We tested the proposed network with several empirical data from the literature, mainly from the Prisoner's Dilemma game and the Two Stage Gambling game. The results obtained show that the proposed quantum Bayesian Network is a general method that can accommodate violations of the laws of classical probability theory and make accurate predictions regarding human decision-making in these scenarios.

  16. A control theory model for human decision making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levison, W. H.

    1972-01-01

    The optimal control model for pilot-vehicle systems has been extended to handle certain types of human decision tasks. The model for decision making incorporates the observation noise, optimal estimation, and prediction concepts that form the basis of the model for control behavior. Experiments are described for the following task situations: (1) single decision tasks; (2) two decision tasks; and (3) simultaneous manual control and decision tasks. Using fixed values for model parameters, single-task and two-task decision performance scores to within an accuracy of 10 percent can be predicted. The experiment on simultaneous control and decision indicates the presence of task interference in this situation, but the results are not adequate to allow a conclusive test of the predictive capability of the model.

  17. Making the Most of Modeling Tasks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wernet, Jamie L.; Lawrence, Kevin A.; Gilbertson, Nicholas J.

    2015-01-01

    While there is disagreement among mathematics educators about some aspects of its meaning, mathematical modeling generally involves taking a real-world scenario and translating it into the mathematical world (Niss, Blum, and Galbraith 2007). The complete modeling process involves describing situations posed in problems with mathematical concepts,…

  18. Making eco logic and models work

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kuiper, Jan Jurjen

    2016-01-01

    Dynamical ecosystem models are important tools that can help ecologists understand complex systems, and turn understanding into predictions of how these systems respond to external changes. This thesis revolves around PCLake, an integrated ecosystem model of shallow lakes that is used by both

  19. Sectioning Clay Models Makes Anatomy & Development Tangible

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howell, Carina Endres; Howell, James Endres

    2010-01-01

    Clay models have proved to be useful teaching aids for many topics in biology that depend on three-dimensional reasoning. Students studying embryonic development struggle to mentally reconstruct the three-dimensional structure of embryos and larvae by observing prepared slides of cross-sectional slices. Students who build clay models of embryos…

  20. Making eco logic and models work

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kuiper, Jan Jurjen

    2016-01-01

    Dynamical ecosystem models are important tools that can help ecologists understand complex systems, and turn understanding into predictions of how these systems respond to external changes. This thesis revolves around PCLake, an integrated ecosystem model of shallow lakes that is used by both

  1. Dual processing model of medical decision-making

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Background Dual processing theory of human cognition postulates that reasoning and decision-making can be described as a function of both an intuitive, experiential, affective system (system I) and/or an analytical, deliberative (system II) processing system. To date no formal descriptive model of medical decision-making based on dual processing theory has been developed. Here we postulate such a model and apply it to a common clinical situation: whether treatment should be administered to the patient who may or may not have a disease. Methods We developed a mathematical model in which we linked a recently proposed descriptive psychological model of cognition with the threshold model of medical decision-making and show how this approach can be used to better understand decision-making at the bedside and explain the widespread variation in treatments observed in clinical practice. Results We show that physician’s beliefs about whether to treat at higher (lower) probability levels compared to the prescriptive therapeutic thresholds obtained via system II processing is moderated by system I and the ratio of benefit and harms as evaluated by both system I and II. Under some conditions, the system I decision maker’s threshold may dramatically drop below the expected utility threshold derived by system II. This can explain the overtreatment often seen in the contemporary practice. The opposite can also occur as in the situations where empirical evidence is considered unreliable, or when cognitive processes of decision-makers are biased through recent experience: the threshold will increase relative to the normative threshold value derived via system II using expected utility threshold. This inclination for the higher diagnostic certainty may, in turn, explain undertreatment that is also documented in the current medical practice. Conclusions We have developed the first dual processing model of medical decision-making that has potential to enrich the current medical

  2. Models in environmental regulatory decision making

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Committee on Models in the Regulatory Decision Process; National Research Council; Division on Earth and Life Studies; National Research Council

    2007-01-01

    .... Models help EPA explain environmental phenomena in settings where direct observations are limited or unavailable, and anticipate the effects of agency policies on the environment, human health and the economy...

  3. Hybrid Models for Sequential Decision Making

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Sun, Ron

    2000-01-01

    To study hybrid architectures of complex learning, especially as applied to a simulated minefield navigation task, we developed a hybrid connectionist model CLARION as a demonstration of the approach...

  4. A neural model of decision making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Torben

    2008-01-01

    derivative with respect to RAS:   (S1)     L = d(PC*D)/dRAS   3.1.3 Cognition (L3) Semantic memory recall in superior temporal sulcus (R) The Semantic Recollection (R) as associated with activity in the primary auditory cortex (Superior Temporal Sulcus, STS) is measured by theta-activity (Φ) in the EEG (in...... such as fairness, trust, altruism, memory, learning and knowledge. The goal of neuroeconomics is stated as to provide a descriptive decision-making theory, which is not restricted to economic theory and more realistic than that of economic man.    Reviewing how neuroscience can inform economics [Camerer et al....... The role of Hippocampus in the formation of episodic or autobiographical memories is unquestioned (M). A newer line of Hippocampal research focuses the branching between ‘familiar' and ‘novel' sensory input. ‘Novel'-perceptions arising from mismatch with existing memories mobilizes the basal flight...

  5. Comparison of multiple-criteria decision-making methods - results of simulation study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michał Adamczak

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Background: Today, both researchers and practitioners have many methods for supporting the decision-making process. Due to the conditions in which supply chains function, the most interesting are multi-criteria methods. The use of sophisticated methods for supporting decisions requires the parameterization and execution of calculations that are often complex. So is it efficient to use sophisticated methods? Methods: The authors of the publication compared two popular multi-criteria decision-making methods: the  Weighted Sum Model (WSM and the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP. A simulation study reflects these two decision-making methods. Input data for this study was a set of criteria weights and the value of each in terms of each criterion. Results: The iGrafx Process for Six Sigma simulation software recreated how both multiple-criteria decision-making methods (WSM and AHP function. The result of the simulation was a numerical value defining the preference of each of the alternatives according to the WSM and AHP methods. The alternative producing a result of higher numerical value  was considered preferred, according to the selected method. In the analysis of the results, the relationship between the values of the parameters and the difference in the results presented by both methods was investigated. Statistical methods, including hypothesis testing, were used for this purpose. Conclusions: The simulation study findings prove that the results obtained with the use of two multiple-criteria decision-making methods are very similar. Differences occurred more frequently in lower-value parameters from the "value of each alternative" group and higher-value parameters from the "weight of criteria" group.

  6. A Model of Career Decision Making for College Students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harren, Vincent A.

    1979-01-01

    Presents a model of career decision-making which includes: a delineation of the internal psychological process of decision-making; identification of important developmental and personality characteristics of the decision maker; and specification of immediate or anticipated environmental factors influencing decision-making. (Author)

  7. Data driven mathematical models for policy making

    OpenAIRE

    Nannyonga, Betty

    2011-01-01

    This thesis consists of two papers. 1. Betty Nannyonga, D.J.T. Sumpter, J.Y.T. Mugisha and L.S. Luboobi: The Dynamics,causes and possible prevention of Hepaititis E outbreaks. 2. Betty Nannyonga, D.J.T. Sumpter, andStam Nicolis: A dynamical systems approach tosocial and economic development. The first paper deals with a deterministic approach of modelling a Hepatitis E outbreak whenmalaria is endemic in a population. We design three models based on the epidemiology ofHepatitis E, malaria, and...

  8. Urban drainage models - making uncertainty analysis simple

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vezzaro, Luca; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen; Deletic, Ana

    2012-01-01

    There is increasing awareness about uncertainties in modelling of urban drainage systems and, as such, many new methods for uncertainty analyses have been developed. Despite this, all available methods have limitations which restrict their widespread application among practitioners. Here, a modif...

  9. Does learning to reflect make better modelers?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Slinger, J.H.; Kwakkel, J.H.; Van der Niet, M.

    2008-01-01

    In this paper we address the role of reflective skills in the development and training of new System Dynamics modelers at the tertiary education level. Over the last two years students at the Delft University of Technology have written a reflective essay on their experiences with the

  10. A queueing model of pilot decision making in a multi-task flight management situation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walden, R. S.; Rouse, W. B.

    1977-01-01

    Allocation of decision making responsibility between pilot and computer is considered and a flight management task, designed for the study of pilot-computer interaction, is discussed. A queueing theory model of pilot decision making in this multi-task, control and monitoring situation is presented. An experimental investigation of pilot decision making and the resulting model parameters are discussed.

  11. VEMAP 1: Selected Model Results

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Vegetation/Ecosystem Modeling and Analysis Project (VEMAP) was a multi-institutional, international effort addressing the response of biogeography and...

  12. VEMAP 1: Selected Model Results

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — ABSTRACT: The Vegetation/Ecosystem Modeling and Analysis Project (VEMAP) was a multi-institutional, international effort addressing the response of biogeography and...

  13. Drivers’ decision-making when attempting to cross an intersection results from choice between affordances

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Geoffrey eMARTI

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available In theory, a safe approach to an intersection implies that the driver can simultaneously manage two scenarios: they either cross or they must give way to an oncoming vehicle. In this article we formalize the critical time for safe crossing (CTcross and the critical time for safe stopping (CTstop to represent crossing and stopping possibilities, respectively. We describe these critical times in terms of affordances and empirically test their respective contribution to the driver’s decision-making process. Using a driving simulator, three groups of participants drove cars with identical acceleration capabilities and different braking capabilities. They were asked to try to cross an intersection where there was an oncoming vehicle, if they deemed the maneuver to be safe. If not, they could decide to stop or, as a last resort, make an emergency exit. The intersections were identical among groups.Results showed that although the crossing possibilities (CTcross were the same for all groups, there were between-group differences in crossing frequency. This suggests that stopping possibilities (CTstop play a role in the driver’s decision-making process, in addition to the crossing possibilities. These results can be accounted for by a behavioral model of decision making, and provide support for the hypothesis of choice between affordances.

  14. Models of Affective Decision Making: How Do Feelings Predict Choice?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charpentier, Caroline J; De Neve, Jan-Emmanuel; Li, Xinyi; Roiser, Jonathan P; Sharot, Tali

    2016-06-01

    Intuitively, how you feel about potential outcomes will determine your decisions. Indeed, an implicit assumption in one of the most influential theories in psychology, prospect theory, is that feelings govern choice. Surprisingly, however, very little is known about the rules by which feelings are transformed into decisions. Here, we specified a computational model that used feelings to predict choices. We found that this model predicted choice better than existing value-based models, showing a unique contribution of feelings to decisions, over and above value. Similar to the value function in prospect theory, our feeling function showed diminished sensitivity to outcomes as value increased. However, loss aversion in choice was explained by an asymmetry in how feelings about losses and gains were weighted when making a decision, not by an asymmetry in the feelings themselves. The results provide new insights into how feelings are utilized to reach a decision. © The Author(s) 2016.

  15. Data-driven Modelling for decision making under uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Angria S, Layla; Dwi Sari, Yunita; Zarlis, Muhammad; Tulus

    2018-01-01

    The rise of the issues with the uncertainty of decision making has become a very warm conversation in operation research. Many models have been presented, one of which is with data-driven modelling (DDM). The purpose of this paper is to extract and recognize patterns in data, and find the best model in decision-making problem under uncertainty by using data-driven modeling approach with linear programming, linear and nonlinear differential equation, bayesian approach. Model criteria tested to determine the smallest error, and it will be the best model that can be used.

  16. A decision-making model for engineering designers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ahmed, S.; Hansen, Claus Thorp

    2002-01-01

    This paper describes research that combines the generic decision-making model of Hansen, together with design strategies employed by experienced engineering designers. The relationship between the six decision-making sub-activities and the eight design strategies are examined. By combining...

  17. A Descriptive Model of Decision Making: Review of Idiographic Influences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacPhail-Wilcox, Bettye; Bryant, H. David

    1988-01-01

    This article provides an overview of decision-making literature, describes individual and organizational decision stages, and reviews selected idiographic influences on decision-making. Also presented is a model for predicting and explaining variations in decision outcomes. These outcomes include affective, cognitive, and behavioral conditions.…

  18. Modelling the Role of Cognitive Metaphors in Joint Decision Making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Ments, L.; Thilakarathne, D.J.; Treur, J.

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, a social agent model is presented for the influence of cognitive metaphors on joint decision making processes. The social agent model is based on mechanisms known from cognitive and social neuroscience and cognitive metaphor theory. The model was illustrated in particular for two

  19. Optimization for decision making linear and quadratic models

    CERN Document Server

    Murty, Katta G

    2010-01-01

    While maintaining the rigorous linear programming instruction required, Murty's new book is unique in its focus on developing modeling skills to support valid decision-making for complex real world problems, and includes solutions to brand new algorithms.

  20. The study of prescriptive and descriptive models of decision making

    OpenAIRE

    Ashok A Divekar; Sunita Bangal; Sumangala D.

    2012-01-01

    The field of decision making can be loosely divided into two parts: the study of prescriptive models and the study of descriptive models. Prescriptive decision scientists are concerned with prescribing methods for making optimal decisions. Descriptive decision researchers are concerned with the bounded way in which the decisions are actually made. The statistics courses treat risk from a prescriptive, by suggesting rational methods. This paper brings out the work done by many researchers by e...

  1. Ising model for collective decision making during group motion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pinkoviezky, Itai; Gov, Nir; Couzin, Iain

    Collective decision making is a key feature during natural motion of animal groups and is also crucial for human groups. This phenomenon can be exemplified by the scenario of two subgroups that hold conflicting preferred directions of motion. The constraint of group cohesion drives the motion either towards a compromise or towards one of the preferred targets. The transition between compromise and decision has been found in simulations of flock models, but the nature of this transition is not well understood. We present a minimal spin model for this system where we interpret the spin-spin interaction as a social force. This model exhibits both first and second order transitions. The group motion changes from size-dependent diffusion at high temperatures to run-and-tumble motion below the critical temperature. In the presence of minority and majority subgroups, we find that there is a trade-off between the speed of reaching a target and the accuracy. We then compare the results of the spin model to detailed simulations of a flock model, and find overall very similar dynamics, with the role of the temperature taken by the inverse of the number of uninformed individuals.

  2. A control-theory model for human decision-making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levison, W. H.; Tanner, R. B.

    1971-01-01

    A model for human decision making is an adaptation of an optimal control model for pilot/vehicle systems. The models for decision and control both contain concepts of time delay, observation noise, optimal prediction, and optimal estimation. The decision making model was intended for situations in which the human bases his decision on his estimate of the state of a linear plant. Experiments are described for the following task situations: (a) single decision tasks, (b) two-decision tasks, and (c) simultaneous manual control and decision making. Using fixed values for model parameters, single-task and two-task decision performance can be predicted to within an accuracy of 10 percent. Agreement is less good for the simultaneous decision and control situation.

  3. A decision-making model based on a spiking neural circuit and synaptic plasticity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Hui; Bu, Yijie; Dai, Dawei

    2017-10-01

    To adapt to the environment and survive, most animals can control their behaviors by making decisions. The process of decision-making and responding according to cues in the environment is stable, sustainable, and learnable. Understanding how behaviors are regulated by neural circuits and the encoding and decoding mechanisms from stimuli to responses are important goals in neuroscience. From results observed in Drosophila experiments, the underlying decision-making process is discussed, and a neural circuit that implements a two-choice decision-making model is proposed to explain and reproduce the observations. Compared with previous two-choice decision making models, our model uses synaptic plasticity to explain changes in decision output given the same environment. Moreover, biological meanings of parameters of our decision-making model are discussed. In this paper, we explain at the micro-level (i.e., neurons and synapses) how observable decision-making behavior at the macro-level is acquired and achieved.

  4. Reviewing model application to support animal health decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singer, Alexander; Salman, Mo; Thulke, Hans-Hermann

    2011-04-01

    Animal health is of societal importance as it affects human welfare, and anthropogenic interests shape decision making to assure animal health. Scientific advice to support decision making is manifold. Modelling, as one piece of the scientific toolbox, is appreciated for its ability to describe and structure data, to give insight in complex processes and to predict future outcome. In this paper we study the application of scientific modelling to support practical animal health decisions. We reviewed the 35 animal health related scientific opinions adopted by the Animal Health and Animal Welfare Panel of the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA). Thirteen of these documents were based on the application of models. The review took two viewpoints, the decision maker's need and the modeller's approach. In the reviewed material three types of modelling questions were addressed by four specific model types. The correspondence between tasks and models underpinned the importance of the modelling question in triggering the modelling approach. End point quantifications were the dominating request from decision makers, implying that prediction of risk is a major need. However, due to knowledge gaps corresponding modelling studies often shed away from providing exact numbers. Instead, comparative scenario analyses were performed, furthering the understanding of the decision problem and effects of alternative management options. In conclusion, the most adequate scientific support for decision making - including available modelling capacity - might be expected if the required advice is clearly stated. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  5. Crisis Decision Making Through a Shared Integrative Negotiation Mental Model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van Santen, W.; Jonker, C.M.; Wijngaards, N.

    2009-01-01

    Decision making during crises takes place in (multi-agency) teams, in a bureaucratic political context. As a result, the common notion that during crises decision making should be done in line with a Command & Control structure is invalid. This paper shows that the best way for crisis decision

  6. A spiral model of musical decision-making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel eBangert

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes a model of how musicians make decisions about performing notated music. The model builds on psychological theories of decision-making and was developed from empirical studies of Western art music performance that aimed to identify intuitive and deliberate processes of decision-making, a distinction consistent with dual-process theories of cognition. The model proposes that the proportion of intuitive (Type 1 and deliberate (Type 2 decision-making processes changes with increasing expertise and conceptualises this change as movement along a continually narrowing upward spiral where the primary axis signifies principal decision-making type and the vertical axis marks level of expertise. The model is intended to have implications for the development of expertise as described in two main phases. The first is movement from a primarily intuitive approach in the early stages of learning towards greater deliberation as analytical techniques are applied during practice. The second phase occurs as deliberate decisions gradually become automatic (procedural, increasing the role of intuitive processes. As a performer examines more issues or reconsiders decisions, the spiral motion towards the deliberate side and back to the intuitive is repeated indefinitely. With increasing expertise, the spiral tightens to signify greater control over decision type selection. The model draws on existing theories, particularly Evans’ (2011 Intervention Model of dual-process theories, Cognitive Continuum Theory (Hammond et al., 1987; Hammond, 2007, and Baylor’s (2001 U-shaped model for the development of intuition by level of expertise. By theorising how musical decision-making operates over time and with increasing expertise, this model could be used as a framework for future research in music performance studies and performance science more generally.

  7. Qualitative modeling of the decision-making process using electrooculography.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zargari Marandi, Ramtin; Sabzpoushan, S H

    2015-12-01

    A novel method based on electrooculography (EOG) has been introduced in this work to study the decision-making process. An experiment was designed and implemented wherein subjects were asked to choose between two items from the same category that were presented within a limited time. The EOG and voice signals of the subjects were recorded during the experiment. A calibration task was performed to map the EOG signals to their corresponding gaze positions on the screen by using an artificial neural network. To analyze the data, 16 parameters were extracted from the response time and EOG signals of the subjects. Evaluation and comparison of the parameters, together with subjects' choices, revealed functional information. On the basis of this information, subjects switched their eye gazes between items about three times on average. We also found, according to statistical hypothesis testing-that is, a t test, t(10) = 71.62, SE = 1.25, p < .0001-that the correspondence rate of a subjects' gaze at the moment of selection with the selected item was significant. Ultimately, on the basis of these results, we propose a qualitative choice model for the decision-making task.

  8. Synthesizing Results from an Interest and a Personality Inventory to Improve Career Decision Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Mark J.

    1992-01-01

    Illustrates how career counselors can integrate results of Myers-Briggs Type Indicator (MBTI) and Strong-Campbell Interest Inventory (SCII) to enhance client's decision-making ability. Includes detailed description of MBTI and brief explanation of SCII and discussion of how both instruments can be used jointly to promote career decision making.…

  9. A Bayesian Attractor Model for Perceptual Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bitzer, Sebastian; Bruineberg, Jelle; Kiebel, Stefan J.

    2015-01-01

    Even for simple perceptual decisions, the mechanisms that the brain employs are still under debate. Although current consensus states that the brain accumulates evidence extracted from noisy sensory information, open questions remain about how this simple model relates to other perceptual phenomena such as flexibility in decisions, decision-dependent modulation of sensory gain, or confidence about a decision. We propose a novel approach of how perceptual decisions are made by combining two influential formalisms into a new model. Specifically, we embed an attractor model of decision making into a probabilistic framework that models decision making as Bayesian inference. We show that the new model can explain decision making behaviour by fitting it to experimental data. In addition, the new model combines for the first time three important features: First, the model can update decisions in response to switches in the underlying stimulus. Second, the probabilistic formulation accounts for top-down effects that may explain recent experimental findings of decision-related gain modulation of sensory neurons. Finally, the model computes an explicit measure of confidence which we relate to recent experimental evidence for confidence computations in perceptual decision tasks. PMID:26267143

  10. Incorporating affective bias in models of human decision making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nygren, Thomas E.

    1991-01-01

    Research on human decision making has traditionally focused on how people actually make decisions, how good their decisions are, and how their decisions can be improved. Recent research suggests that this model is inadequate. Affective as well as cognitive components drive the way information about relevant outcomes and events is perceived, integrated, and used in the decision making process. The affective components include how the individual frames outcomes as good or bad, whether the individual anticipates regret in a decision situation, the affective mood state of the individual, and the psychological stress level anticipated or experienced in the decision situation. A focus of the current work has been to propose empirical studies that will attempt to examine in more detail the relationships between the latter two critical affective influences (mood state and stress) on decision making behavior.

  11. Translational Models of Gambling-Related Decision-Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winstanley, Catharine A; Clark, Luke

    Gambling is a harmless, recreational pastime that is ubiquitous across cultures. However, for some, gambling becomes a maladaptive and compulsive, and this syndrome is conceptualized as a behavioural addiction. Laboratory models that capture the key cognitive processes involved in gambling behaviour, and that can be translated across species, have the potential to make an important contribution to both decision neuroscience and the study of addictive disorders. The Iowa gambling task has been widely used to assess human decision-making under uncertainty, and this paradigm can be successfully modelled in rodents. Similar neurobiological processes underpin choice behaviour in humans and rats, and thus, a preference for the disadvantageous "high-risk, high-reward" options may reflect meaningful vulnerability for mental health problems. However, the choice behaviour operationalized by these tasks does not necessarily approximate the vulnerability to gambling disorder (GD) per se. We consider a number of psychological challenges that apply to modelling gambling in a translational way, and evaluate the success of the existing models. Heterogeneity in the structure of gambling games, as well as in the motivations of individuals with GD, is highlighted. The potential issues with extrapolating too directly from established animal models of drug dependency are discussed, as are the inherent difficulties in validating animal models of GD in the absence of any approved treatments for GD. Further advances in modelling the cognitive biases endemic in human decision-making, which appear to be exacerbated in GD, may be a promising line of research.

  12. Make

    CERN Document Server

    Frauenfelder, Mark

    2012-01-01

    The first magazine devoted entirely to do-it-yourself technology projects presents its 29th quarterly edition for people who like to tweak, disassemble, recreate, and invent cool new uses for technology. MAKE Volume 29 takes bio-hacking to a new level. Get introduced to DIY tracking devices before they hit the consumer electronics marketplace. Learn how to build an EKG machine to study your heartbeat, and put together a DIY bio lab to study athletic motion using consumer grade hardware.

  13. Revisiting the Relationship Between Data, Models, and Decision-Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferré, Ty P A

    2017-09-01

    We hydrologists can do a better job of supporting water-resources decision-making. I will argue that we can do this by recognizing that decision makers use qualitative, multiple-narrative approaches. So, rather than providing single-model predictions with quantitative uncertainties, we should develop teams of rival models that inform decision makers about what is known, what is possible, and what is unknown. This requires that we build ensembles of models that include biased, advocacy models that directly represent stakeholders' interests or concerns. From this inclusive platform, we can speak objectively and clearly about the risks that drive stakeholders' decisions. Furthermore, we will be promoting more appropriate use of the scientific method in making informed water-resources decisions. © 2017, National Ground Water Association.

  14. Leadership of risk decision making in a complex, technology organization: The deliberative decision making model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flaming, Susan C.

    2007-12-01

    The continuing saga of satellite technology development is as much a story of successful risk management as of innovative engineering. How do program leaders on complex, technology projects manage high stakes risks that threaten business success and satellite performance? This grounded theory study of risk decision making portrays decision leadership practices at one communication satellite company. Integrated product team (IPT) leaders of multi-million dollar programs were interviewed and observed to develop an extensive description of the leadership skills required to navigate organizational influences and drive challenging risk decisions to closure. Based on the study's findings the researcher proposes a new decision making model, Deliberative Decision Making, to describe the program leaders' cognitive and organizational leadership practices. This Deliberative Model extends the insights of prominent decision making models including the rational (or classical) and the naturalistic and qualifies claims made by bounded rationality theory. The Deliberative Model describes how leaders proactively engage resources to play a variety of decision leadership roles. The Model incorporates six distinct types of leadership decision activities, undertaken in varying sequence based on the challenges posed by specific risks. Novel features of the Deliberative Decision Model include: an inventory of leadership methods for managing task challenges, potential stakeholder bias and debates; four types of leadership meta-decisions that guide decision processes, and aligned organizational culture. Both supporting and constraining organizational influences were observed as leaders managed major risks, requiring active leadership on the most difficult decisions. Although the company's engineering culture emphasized the importance of data-based decisions, the uncertainties intrinsic to satellite risks required expert engineering judgment to be exercised throughout. An investigation into

  15. A decision-making process model of young online shoppers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Chin-Feng; Wang, Hui-Fang

    2008-12-01

    Based on the concepts of brand equity, means-end chain, and Web site trust, this study proposes a novel model called the consumption decision-making process of adolescents (CDMPA) to understand adolescents' Internet consumption habits and behavioral intention toward particular sporting goods. The findings of the CDMPA model can help marketers understand adolescents' consumption preferences and habits for developing effective Internet marketing strategies.

  16. A Behavioral Decision Making Modeling Approach Towards Hedging Services

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pennings, J.M.E.; Candel, M.J.J.M.; Egelkraut, T.M.

    2003-01-01

    This paper takes a behavioral approach toward the market for hedging services. A behavioral decision-making model is developed that provides insight into how and why owner-managers decide the way they do regarding hedging services. Insight into those choice processes reveals information needed by

  17. An Integrative Model of Dynamic Strategy-Making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Torben Juul; Hallin, Carina Antonia; Li, Xin

    . We adopt the frame of complementary Yin-Yang elements and Zhong Yong balance to explain the time bound interaction between these opposing yet complementary strategy-making mechanisms where tradeoffs and synergies are balanced across hierarchical levels. The model outlines how the interaction between...

  18. Making Connections to the "Real World": A Model Building Lesson

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horibe, Shusaku; Underwood, Bret

    2009-01-01

    Classroom activities that include the process of model building, in which students build simplified physical representations of a system, have the potential to help students make meaningful connections between physics and the real world. We describe a lesson designed with this intent for an introductory college classroom that engages students in…

  19. The limitations of applying rational decision-making models to ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The aim of this paper is to show the limitations of rational decision-making models as applied to child spacing and more specifically to the use of modern methods of contraception. In the light of factors known to influence low uptake of child spacing services in other African countries, suggestions are made to explain the ...

  20. A quantitative risk model for early lifecycle decision making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feather, M. S.; Cornford, S. L.; Dunphy, J.; Hicks, K.

    2002-01-01

    Decisions made in the earliest phases of system development have the most leverage to influence the success of the entire development effort, and yet must be made when information is incomplete and uncertain. We have developed a scalable cost-benefit model to support this critical phase of early-lifecycle decision-making.

  1. Generation companies decision-making modeling by linear control theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gutierrez-Alcaraz, G.; Sheble, Gerald B.

    2010-01-01

    This paper proposes four decision-making procedures to be employed by electric generating companies as part of their bidding strategies when competing in an oligopolistic market: naive, forward, adaptive, and moving average expectations. Decision-making is formulated in a dynamic framework by using linear control theory. The results reveal that interactions among all GENCOs affect market dynamics. Several numerical examples are reported, and conclusions are presented. (author)

  2. A statistical model for predicting the retrieval rate of separated instruments and clinical decision-making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chen Lin

    2015-12-01

    Conclusion: A statistical model relating to root canal curvature and depth of separated instruments was established to evaluate the retrieval rate of separated instruments, and the result of this formulation may provide clues for clinical decision-making.

  3. The DO ART Model: An Ethical Decision-Making Model Applicable to Art Therapy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hauck, Jessica; Ling, Thomson

    2016-01-01

    Although art therapists have discussed the importance of taking a positive stance in terms of ethical decision making (Hinz, 2011), an ethical decision-making model applicable for the field of art therapy has yet to emerge. As the field of art therapy continues to grow, an accessible, theoretically grounded, and logical decision-making model is…

  4. Behavioural modelling of irrigation decision making under water scarcity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foster, T.; Brozovic, N.; Butler, A. P.

    2013-12-01

    Providing effective policy solutions to aquifer depletion caused by abstraction for irrigation is a key challenge for socio-hydrology. However, most crop production functions used in hydrological models do not capture the intraseasonal nature of irrigation planning, or the importance of well yield in land and water use decisions. Here we develop a method for determining stochastic intraseasonal water use that is based on observed farmer behaviour but is also theoretically consistent with dynamically optimal decision making. We use the model to (i) analyse the joint land and water use decision by farmers; (ii) to assess changes in behaviour and production risk in response to water scarcity; and (iii) to understand the limits of applicability of current methods in policy design. We develop a biophysical model of water-limited crop yield building on the AquaCrop model. The model is calibrated and applied to case studies of irrigated corn production in Nebraska and Texas. We run the model iteratively, using long-term climate records, to define two formulations of the crop-water production function: (i) the aggregate relationship between total seasonal irrigation and yield (typical of current approaches); and (ii) the stochastic response of yield and total seasonal irrigation to the choice of an intraseasonal soil moisture target and irrigated area. Irrigated area (the extensive margin decision) and per-area irrigation intensity (the intensive margin decision) are then calculated for different seasonal water restrictions (corresponding to regulatory policies) and well yield constraints on intraseasonal abstraction rates (corresponding to aquifer system limits). Profit- and utility-maximising decisions are determined assuming risk neutrality and varying degrees of risk aversion, respectively. Our results demonstrate that the formulation of the production function has a significant impact on the response to water scarcity. For low well yields, which are the major concern

  5. Sex differences in animal models of decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orsini, Caitlin A; Setlow, Barry

    2017-01-02

    The ability to weigh the costs and benefits of various options to make an adaptive decision is critical to an organism's survival and wellbeing. Many psychiatric diseases are characterized by maladaptive decision making, indicating a need for better understanding of the mechanisms underlying this process and the ways in which it is altered under pathological conditions. Great strides have been made in uncovering these mechanisms, but the majority of what is known comes from studies conducted solely in male subjects. In recent years, decision-making research has begun to include female subjects to determine whether sex differences exist and to identify the mechanisms that contribute to such differences. This Mini-Review begins by describing studies that have examined sex differences in animal (largely rodent) models of decision making. Possible explanations, both theoretical and biological, for such differences in decision making are then considered. The Mini-Review concludes with a discussion of the implications of sex differences in decision making for understanding psychiatric conditions. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  6. Sex Differences in Animal Models of Decision-Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orsini, Caitlin A.; Setlow, Barry

    2016-01-01

    The ability to weigh the costs and benefits of various options in order to make an adaptive decision is critical to an organism’s survival and well-being. Many psychiatric diseases are characterized by maladaptive decision-making, indicating the need to better understand the mechanisms underlying this process and the ways in which it is altered in pathological conditions. Great strides have been made in uncovering these mechanisms, but the majority of what is known comes from studies conducted solely in male subjects. In recent years, decision-making research has begun to include females to determine whether sex differences exist and to identify the mechanisms that contribute to such differences. This review will begin by describing studies that have examined sex differences in animal (largely rodent) models of decision-making. Possible explanations, both theoretical and biological, for such differences in decision- making will then be considered. The review will conclude with a discussion of the implications of sex differences in decision-making for understanding psychiatric conditions. PMID:27870448

  7. Design of nuclear emergency decision-making support system based on the results of radiation monitoring

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zheng Qiyan; Zhang Lijun; Huang Weiqi; Chen Lin

    2010-01-01

    For nuclear emergency decision-making support system based on the results of radiation monitoring, its main assignment is receiving radiation monitoring data and analyzing them, to accomplish some works such as environment influence evaluation, dose assessment for emergency responder, decision-making analyzing and effectiveness evaluation for emergency actions, etc.. This system is made up of server, communication terminal, data-analyzing terminal, GPRS modules, printer, and so on. The whole system make of a LAN. The system's software is made up of six subsystems: data-analyzing subsystem, reporting subsystem, GIS subsystem, communication subsystem, user-managing subsystem and data-base. (authors)

  8. Climate change decision-making: Model & parameter uncertainties explored

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dowlatabadi, H.; Kandlikar, M.; Linville, C.

    1995-12-31

    A critical aspect of climate change decision-making is uncertainties in current understanding of the socioeconomic, climatic and biogeochemical processes involved. Decision-making processes are much better informed if these uncertainties are characterized and their implications understood. Quantitative analysis of these uncertainties serve to inform decision makers about the likely outcome of policy initiatives, and help set priorities for research so that outcome ambiguities faced by the decision-makers are reduced. A family of integrated assessment models of climate change have been developed at Carnegie Mellon. These models are distinguished from other integrated assessment efforts in that they were designed from the outset to characterize and propagate parameter, model, value, and decision-rule uncertainties. The most recent of these models is ICAM 2.1. This model includes representation of the processes of demographics, economic activity, emissions, atmospheric chemistry, climate and sea level change and impacts from these changes and policies for emissions mitigation, and adaptation to change. The model has over 800 objects of which about one half are used to represent uncertainty. In this paper we show, that when considering parameter uncertainties, the relative contribution of climatic uncertainties are most important, followed by uncertainties in damage calculations, economic uncertainties and direct aerosol forcing uncertainties. When considering model structure uncertainties we find that the choice of policy is often dominated by model structure choice, rather than parameter uncertainties.

  9. Dual processing model of medical decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Djulbegovic, Benjamin; Hozo, Iztok; Beckstead, Jason; Tsalatsanis, Athanasios; Pauker, Stephen G

    2012-09-03

    Dual processing theory of human cognition postulates that reasoning and decision-making can be described as a function of both an intuitive, experiential, affective system (system I) and/or an analytical, deliberative (system II) processing system. To date no formal descriptive model of medical decision-making based on dual processing theory has been developed. Here we postulate such a model and apply it to a common clinical situation: whether treatment should be administered to the patient who may or may not have a disease. We developed a mathematical model in which we linked a recently proposed descriptive psychological model of cognition with the threshold model of medical decision-making and show how this approach can be used to better understand decision-making at the bedside and explain the widespread variation in treatments observed in clinical practice. We show that physician's beliefs about whether to treat at higher (lower) probability levels compared to the prescriptive therapeutic thresholds obtained via system II processing is moderated by system I and the ratio of benefit and harms as evaluated by both system I and II. Under some conditions, the system I decision maker's threshold may dramatically drop below the expected utility threshold derived by system II. This can explain the overtreatment often seen in the contemporary practice. The opposite can also occur as in the situations where empirical evidence is considered unreliable, or when cognitive processes of decision-makers are biased through recent experience: the threshold will increase relative to the normative threshold value derived via system II using expected utility threshold. This inclination for the higher diagnostic certainty may, in turn, explain undertreatment that is also documented in the current medical practice. We have developed the first dual processing model of medical decision-making that has potential to enrich the current medical decision-making field, which is still to the

  10. Stochastic Watershed Models for Risk Based Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vogel, R. M.

    2017-12-01

    Over half a century ago, the Harvard Water Program introduced the field of operational or synthetic hydrology providing stochastic streamflow models (SSMs), which could generate ensembles of synthetic streamflow traces useful for hydrologic risk management. The application of SSMs, based on streamflow observations alone, revolutionized water resources planning activities, yet has fallen out of favor due, in part, to their inability to account for the now nearly ubiquitous anthropogenic influences on streamflow. This commentary advances the modern equivalent of SSMs, termed `stochastic watershed models' (SWMs) useful as input to nearly all modern risk based water resource decision making approaches. SWMs are deterministic watershed models implemented using stochastic meteorological series, model parameters and model errors, to generate ensembles of streamflow traces that represent the variability in possible future streamflows. SWMs combine deterministic watershed models, which are ideally suited to accounting for anthropogenic influences, with recent developments in uncertainty analysis and principles of stochastic simulation

  11. VALIDATION OF THEORETICAL MODEL FOR DECISION MAKING ABOUT E-LEARNING IMPLEMENTATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nina Begičević

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available In the paper the possibility to use mathematical models and statistical techniques in strategic planning and decision making about e-learning is presented. Strategic planning and decision making has been covered as consisting of four phases: (1 intelligence, (2 design, (3 choice and (4 implementation. Each of the phases will be described in this paper, but the accent will be put on the statistical evaluation of the results of the questionnaire which was based on the developed theoretical model for decision making about e-learning implementation in the higher education sector. In general, the main objectives of this paper are: (1 validation of the first theoretical model for decision making about e-learning implementation in the higher education sector, by means of factor analysis and (2 reduction of a large number of variables to a smaller number of factors, i.e. designing the improved theoretical model, for modelling purposes (developing AHP & ANP models.

  12. Risk Decision Making Model for Reservoir Floodwater resources Utilization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, X.

    2017-12-01

    Floodwater resources utilization(FRU) can alleviate the shortage of water resources, but there are risks. In order to safely and efficiently utilize the floodwater resources, it is necessary to study the risk of reservoir FRU. In this paper, the risk rate of exceeding the design flood water level and the risk rate of exceeding safety discharge are estimated. Based on the principle of the minimum risk and the maximum benefit of FRU, a multi-objective risk decision making model for FRU is constructed. Probability theory and mathematical statistics method is selected to calculate the risk rate; C-D production function method and emergy analysis method is selected to calculate the risk benefit; the risk loss is related to flood inundation area and unit area loss; the multi-objective decision making problem of the model is solved by the constraint method. Taking the Shilianghe reservoir in Jiangsu Province as an example, the optimal equilibrium solution of FRU of the Shilianghe reservoir is found by using the risk decision making model, and the validity and applicability of the model are verified.

  13. Anticipatory network models of multicriteria decision-making processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skulimowski, Andrzej M. J.

    2014-01-01

    In this article, we will investigate the properties of a compromise solution selection method based on modelling the consequences of a decision as factors influencing the decision making in subsequent problems. Specifically, we assume that the constraints and preference structures in the (k + 1)st multicriteria optimisation problem depend on the values of criteria in the k-th problem. To make a decision in the initial problem, the decision maker should take into account the anticipated outcomes of each linked future decision problem. This model can be extended to a network of linked decision problems, such that causal relations are defined between the time-ordered nodes. Multiple edges starting from a decision node correspond to different future scenarios of consequences at this node. In addition, we will define the relation of anticipatory feedback, assuming that some decision makers take into account the anticipated future consequences of their decisions described by a network of optimisers - a class of information processing units introduced in this article. Both relations (causal and anticipatory) form a feedback information model, which makes possible a selection of compromise solutions taking into account the anticipated consequences. We provide constructive algorithms to solve discrete multicriteria decision problems that admit the above preference information structure. An illustrative example is presented in Section 4. Various applications of the above model, including the construction of technology foresight scenarios, are discussed in the final section of this article.

  14. [A model of shared decision-making in medical rehabilitation].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Körner, M

    2009-06-01

    In this article, an adjusted model of shared decision-making is presented for the sector of medical rehabilitation. This model of interaction describes shared decision-making as a process between physician and patient on the basis of shared information and with both parties equally and actively involved. The typical elements of this interaction model can be transferred to other professionals in the health care sector (i. e. therapists, nurses, social workers, etc.) as well as to the interaction between these different groups of health professionals working as a team. The idea of patient orientation is supplemented with the aspect of relations between the different groups of health professionals, hence establishing patient-oriented interaction inside the organization. In order to strengthen internal patient orientation through a process of shared decision-making between different health professionals (providers), a co-operative leadership style is required in the rehabilitation clinic. Creating the internal conditions for shared decision-making (internal patient orientation) is a prerequisite for considering needs and expectations of the patient within the treatment process (external patient orientation). Health professionals need to display the ability to create these internal conditions to allow for improvement of patient orientated treatment in terms of an integrated patient orientation. Training of the providers is a prerequisite for implementation of an integrated patient orientation in medical rehabilitation. Once a higher level of patient orientation is achieved, through participation in the provider-patient-relationship and communication between the providers within the team, an improved quality of decision-making, a higher level of patient and employee satisfaction and more positive treatment outcomes can be assumed.

  15. Environmental indicators and international models for making decision

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Polanco, Camilo

    2006-01-01

    The last international features proposed by the Organization for Economic Cooperation Development (OECD) and United Nations (UN) are analyzed in the use of the environmental indicators, in typology, selection criteria, and models, for organizing the information for management, environmental performance, and decision making. The advantages and disadvantages of each model are analyzed, as well as their environmental index characteristics. The analyzed models are Pressure - State - Response (PSR) and its conceptual developments: Driving Force - State Response (DSR), Driving Force - Pressure - State - Impact - Response (DPSIR), Model- Flow-Quality (MFQ), Pressure - State - Impact - Effect - Response (PSIER), and, finally, Pressure-State - Impact - Effect - Response - Management (PSIERM). The use of one or another model will depend on the quality of the available information, as well as on the proposed objectives

  16. A Hybrid Learning Model of Tactical Decision Making

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Johnson, Todd

    2000-01-01

    ...), and how experience affects order effects. The experimental results were modeled using a hybrid symbolic-connectionist cognitive model that used Soar as the symbolic component and a modified version of Echo as the connectionist component...

  17. Social influence and perceptual decision making: a diffusion model analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Germar, Markus; Schlemmer, Alexander; Krug, Kristine; Voss, Andreas; Mojzisch, Andreas

    2014-02-01

    Classic studies on social influence used simple perceptual decision-making tasks to examine how the opinions of others change individuals' judgments. Since then, one of the most fundamental questions in social psychology has been whether social influence can alter basic perceptual processes. To address this issue, we used a diffusion model analysis. Diffusion models provide a stochastic approach for separating the cognitive processes underlying speeded binary decisions. Following this approach, our study is the first to disentangle whether social influence on decision making is due to altering the uptake of available sensory information or due to shifting the decision criteria. In two experiments, we found consistent evidence for the idea that social influence alters the uptake of available sensory evidence. By contrast, participants did not adjust their decision criteria.

  18. Models of sequential decision making in consumer lending

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kanshukan Rajaratnam

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract In this paper, we introduce models of sequential decision making in consumer lending. From the definition of adverse selection in static lending models, we show that homogenous borrowers take-up offers at different instances of time when faced with a sequence of loan offers. We postulate that bounded rationality and diverse decision heuristics used by consumers drive the decisions they make about credit offers. Under that postulate, we show how observation of early decisions in a sequence can be informative about later decisions and can, when coupled with a type of adverse selection, also inform credit risk. We show through two examples how lenders may use such information in setting their offer rates.

  19. Unicriterion Model: A Qualitative Decision Making Method That Promotes Ethics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fernando Guilherme Silvano Lobo Pimentel

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Management decision making methods frequently adopt quantitativemodels of several criteria that bypass the question of whysome criteria are considered more important than others, whichmakes more difficult the task of delivering a transparent viewof preference structure priorities that might promote ethics andlearning and serve as a basis for future decisions. To tackle thisparticular shortcoming of usual methods, an alternative qualitativemethodology of aggregating preferences based on the rankingof criteria is proposed. Such an approach delivers a simpleand transparent model for the solution of each preference conflictfaced during the management decision making process. Themethod proceeds by breaking the decision problem into ‘two criteria– two alternatives’ scenarios, and translating the problem ofchoice between alternatives to a problem of choice between criteriawhenever appropriate. The unicriterion model method is illustratedby its application in a car purchase and a house purchasedecision problem.

  20. Pharmaceutical expenditure forecast model to support health policy decision making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rémuzat, Cécile; Urbinati, Duccio; Kornfeld, Åsa; Vataire, Anne-Lise; Cetinsoy, Laurent; Aballéa, Samuel; Mzoughi, Olfa; Toumi, Mondher

    2014-01-01

    Background and objective With constant incentives for healthcare payers to contain their pharmaceutical budgets, modelling policy decision impact became critical. The objective of this project was to test the impact of various policy decisions on pharmaceutical budget (developed for the European Commission for the project ‘European Union (EU) Pharmaceutical expenditure forecast’ – http://ec.europa.eu/health/healthcare/key_documents/index_en.htm). Methods A model was built to assess policy scenarios’ impact on the pharmaceutical budgets of seven member states of the EU, namely France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Poland, Portugal, and the United Kingdom. The following scenarios were tested: expanding the UK policies to EU, changing time to market access, modifying generic price and penetration, shifting the distribution chain of biosimilars (retail/hospital). Results Applying the UK policy resulted in dramatic savings for Germany (10 times the base case forecast) and substantial additional savings for France and Portugal (2 and 4 times the base case forecast, respectively). Delaying time to market was found be to a very powerful tool to reduce pharmaceutical expenditure. Applying the EU transparency directive (6-month process for pricing and reimbursement) increased pharmaceutical expenditure for all countries (from 1.1 to 4 times the base case forecast), except in Germany (additional savings). Decreasing the price of generics and boosting the penetration rate, as well as shifting distribution of biosimilars through hospital chain were also key methods to reduce pharmaceutical expenditure. Change in the level of reimbursement rate to 100% in all countries led to an important increase in the pharmaceutical budget. Conclusions Forecasting pharmaceutical expenditure is a critical exercise to inform policy decision makers. The most important leverages identified by the model on pharmaceutical budget were driven by generic and biosimilar prices, penetration rate

  1. The Madrid Train Bombings: A Decision-Making Model Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-12-11

    4 Since 9/11 virtually all elements of national power have been used to strategically react to terrorism. 2 This study will analyze a terrorist...election.4 While this caused much controversy within Spain, it also makes an analysis using the Organizational Process Model virtually impossible...Cuerpo Nacional de Polic´ıa or CNP and the Guardia Civil), its counterterrorist agency (Spanish security forces--Fuerzas y Cuerpos de Seguridad del

  2. A Hybrid Multiple Criteria Decision Making Model for Supplier Selection

    OpenAIRE

    Wu, Chung-Min; Hsieh, Ching-Lin; Chang, Kuei-Lun

    2013-01-01

    The sustainable supplier selection would be the vital part in the management of a sustainable supply chain. In this study, a hybrid multiple criteria decision making (MCDM) model is applied to select optimal supplier. The fuzzy Delphi method, which can lead to better criteria selection, is used to modify criteria. Considering the interdependence among the selection criteria, analytic network process (ANP) is then used to obtain their weights. To avoid calculation and additional pairwise compa...

  3. Decision-Making Theories and Models: A Discussion of Rational and Psychological Decision-Making Theories and Models: The Search for a Cultural-Ethical Decision-Making Model

    OpenAIRE

    Oliveira, Arnaldo

    2007-01-01

    This paper examines rational and psychological decision-making models. Descriptive and normative methodologies such as attribution theory, schema theory, prospect theory, ambiguity model, game theory, and expected utility theory are discussed. The definition of culture is reviewed, and the relationship between culture and decision making is also highlighted as many organizations use a cultural-ethical decision-making model.

  4. Keefektifan Model Kooperatif Tipe Make A Match dan Model CPS Terhadap Kemampuan Pemecahan Masalah dan Motivasi Belajar

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nur Fitri Amalia

    2013-12-01

    proportion test and t test. The results of the study were (1 the implementation of cooperative model Make a Match effective against problem solving abilities; (2 the implementation of the CPS model effective against problem solving abilities; (3 the implementation of the cooperative model Make a Match was better than the model CPS to issue fractional capability; (4 the implementation of the cooperative model Make a Match was better than the model CPS on motivation to learn.Keywords:          Make A Match; CPS; Poblem Solving; Motivation

  5. Simple model for multiple-choice collective decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Ching Hua; Lucas, Andrew

    2014-11-01

    We describe a simple model of heterogeneous, interacting agents making decisions between n≥2 discrete choices. For a special class of interactions, our model is the mean field description of random field Potts-like models and is effectively solved by finding the extrema of the average energy E per agent. In these cases, by studying the propagation of decision changes via avalanches, we argue that macroscopic dynamics is well captured by a gradient flow along E. We focus on the permutation symmetric case, where all n choices are (on average) the same, and spontaneous symmetry breaking (SSB) arises purely from cooperative social interactions. As examples, we show that bimodal heterogeneity naturally provides a mechanism for the spontaneous formation of hierarchies between decisions and that SSB is a preferred instability to discontinuous phase transitions between two symmetric points. Beyond the mean field limit, exponentially many stable equilibria emerge when we place this model on a graph of finite mean degree. We conclude with speculation on decision making with persistent collective oscillations. Throughout the paper, we emphasize analogies between methods of solution to our model and common intuition from diverse areas of physics, including statistical physics and electromagnetism.

  6. A naturalistic decision making model for simulated human combatants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    HUNTER, KEITH O.; HART, WILLIAM E.; FORSYTHE, JAMES C.

    2000-01-01

    The authors describe a naturalistic behavioral model for the simulation of small unit combat. This model, Klein's recognition-primed decision making (RPD) model, is driven by situational awareness rather than a rational process of selecting from a set of action options. They argue that simulated combatants modeled with RPD will have more flexible and realistic responses to a broad range of small-scale combat scenarios. Furthermore, they note that the predictability of a simulation using an RPD framework can be easily controlled to provide multiple evaluations of a given combat scenario. Finally, they discuss computational issues for building an RPD-based behavior engine for fully automated combatants in small conflict scenarios, which are being investigated within Sandia's Next Generation Site Security project

  7. Comprehensible knowledge model creation for cancer treatment decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Afzal, Muhammad; Hussain, Maqbool; Ali Khan, Wajahat; Ali, Taqdir; Lee, Sungyoung; Huh, Eui-Nam; Farooq Ahmad, Hafiz; Jamshed, Arif; Iqbal, Hassan; Irfan, Muhammad; Abbas Hydari, Manzar

    2017-03-01

    A wealth of clinical data exists in clinical documents in the form of electronic health records (EHRs). This data can be used for developing knowledge-based recommendation systems that can assist clinicians in clinical decision making and education. One of the big hurdles in developing such systems is the lack of automated mechanisms for knowledge acquisition to enable and educate clinicians in informed decision making. An automated knowledge acquisition methodology with a comprehensible knowledge model for cancer treatment (CKM-CT) is proposed. With the CKM-CT, clinical data are acquired automatically from documents. Quality of data is ensured by correcting errors and transforming various formats into a standard data format. Data preprocessing involves dimensionality reduction and missing value imputation. Predictive algorithm selection is performed on the basis of the ranking score of the weighted sum model. The knowledge builder prepares knowledge for knowledge-based services: clinical decisions and education support. Data is acquired from 13,788 head and neck cancer (HNC) documents for 3447 patients, including 1526 patients of the oral cavity site. In the data quality task, 160 staging values are corrected. In the preprocessing task, 20 attributes and 106 records are eliminated from the dataset. The Classification and Regression Trees (CRT) algorithm is selected and provides 69.0% classification accuracy in predicting HNC treatment plans, consisting of 11 decision paths that yield 11 decision rules. Our proposed methodology, CKM-CT, is helpful to find hidden knowledge in clinical documents. In CKM-CT, the prediction models are developed to assist and educate clinicians for informed decision making. The proposed methodology is generalizable to apply to data of other domains such as breast cancer with a similar objective to assist clinicians in decision making and education. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Multi-level decision making models, methods and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Zhang, Guangquan; Gao, Ya

    2015-01-01

    This monograph presents new developments in multi-level decision-making theory, technique and method in both modeling and solution issues. It especially presents how a decision support system can support managers in reaching a solution to a multi-level decision problem in practice. This monograph combines decision theories, methods, algorithms and applications effectively. It discusses in detail the models and solution algorithms of each issue of bi-level and tri-level decision-making, such as multi-leaders, multi-followers, multi-objectives, rule-set-based, and fuzzy parameters. Potential readers include organizational managers and practicing professionals, who can use the methods and software provided to solve their real decision problems; PhD students and researchers in the areas of bi-level and multi-level decision-making and decision support systems; students at an advanced undergraduate, master’s level in information systems, business administration, or the application of computer science.  

  9. Beyond pain: modeling decision-making deficits in chronic pain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leonardo Emanuel Hess

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Risky decision-making seems to be markedly disrupted in patients with chronic pain, probably due to the high cost that impose pain and negative mood on executive control functions. Patients’ behavioral performance on decision-making tasks such as the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT is characterized by selecting cards more frequently from disadvantageous than from advantageous decks, and by switching often between competing responses in comparison with healthy controls. In the present study, we developed a simple heuristic model to simulate individuals’ choice behavior by varying the level of decision randomness and the importance given to gains and losses. The findings revealed that the model was able to differentiate the behavioral performance of patients with chronic pain and healthy controls at the group, as well as at the individual level. The best fit of the model in patients with chronic pain was yielded when decisions were not based on previous choices and when gains were considered more relevant than losses. By contrast, the best account of the available data in healthy controls was obtained when decisions were based on previous experiences and losses loomed larger than gains. In conclusion, our model seems to provide useful information to measure each individual participant extensively, and to deal with the data on a participant-by-participant basis.

  10. Beyond pain: modeling decision-making deficits in chronic pain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hess, Leonardo Emanuel; Haimovici, Ariel; Muñoz, Miguel Angel; Montoya, Pedro

    2014-01-01

    Risky decision-making seems to be markedly disrupted in patients with chronic pain, probably due to the high cost that impose pain and negative mood on executive control functions. Patients’ behavioral performance on decision-making tasks such as the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) is characterized by selecting cards more frequently from disadvantageous than from advantageous decks, and by switching often between competing responses in comparison with healthy controls (HCs). In the present study, we developed a simple heuristic model to simulate individuals’ choice behavior by varying the level of decision randomness and the importance given to gains and losses. The findings revealed that the model was able to differentiate the behavioral performance of patients with chronic pain and HCs at the group, as well as at the individual level. The best fit of the model in patients with chronic pain was yielded when decisions were not based on previous choices and when gains were considered more relevant than losses. By contrast, the best account of the available data in HCs was obtained when decisions were based on previous experiences and losses loomed larger than gains. In conclusion, our model seems to provide useful information to measure each individual participant extensively, and to deal with the data on a participant-by-participant basis. PMID:25136301

  11. An Integrative Model of Dynamic Strategy-Making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Torben Juul; Hallin, Carina Antonia; Li, Xin

    The organizational capacity to cope with unexpected changes remains a fundamental challenge in strategy as global competition and technological innovation increase environmental uncertainty. Whereas conventional strategy-making often is conceived as a sequential linear process, we see it as a non....... We adopt the frame of complementary Yin-Yang elements and Zhong Yong balance to explain the time bound interaction between these opposing yet complementary strategy-making mechanisms where tradeoffs and synergies are balanced across hierarchical levels. The model outlines how the interaction between......-linear interaction between top-down and bottom-up mechanisms dealing with multiple actions taken throughout the organization over time. It is driven by intension but with a flexible balance between centralized (planned) and decentralized (spontaneous) activities where strategy formulation and implementation interact...

  12. IMPORTANCE OF DIFFERENT MODELS IN DECISION MAKING, EXPLAINING THE STRATEGIC BEHAVIOR IN ORGANIZATIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristiano de Oliveira Maciel

    2006-11-01

    Full Text Available This study is about the different models of decision process analyzing the organizational strategy. The article presents the strategy according to a cognitive approach. The discussion about that approach has three models of decision process: rational actor model, organizational behavior, and political model. These models, respectively, present some improvement in the decision making results, search for a good decision facing the cognitive restrictions of the administrator, and lots of talks for making a decision. According to the emphasis of each model, the possibilities for analyzing the strategy are presented. The article also shows that it is necessary to take into account the three different ways of analysis. That statement is justified once the analysis as well as the decision making become more complex, mainly those which are more important for the organizations.

  13. Make or buy decision model with multi-stage manufacturing process and supplier imperfect quality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pratama, Mega Aria; Rosyidi, Cucuk Nur

    2017-11-01

    This research develops an make or buy decision model considering supplier imperfect quality. This model can be used to help companies make the right decision in case of make or buy component with the best quality and the least cost in multistage manufacturing process. The imperfect quality is one of the cost component that must be minimizing in this model. Component with imperfect quality, not necessarily defective. It still can be rework and used for assembly. This research also provide a numerical example and sensitivity analysis to show how the model work. We use simulation and help by crystal ball to solve the numerical problem. The sensitivity analysis result show that percentage of imperfect generally not affect to the model significantly, and the model is not sensitive to changes in these parameters. This is because the imperfect cost are smaller than overall total cost components.

  14. Time-varying boundaries for diffusion models of decision making and response time

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zhang, S.; Lee, M.D.; Vandekerckhove, J.; Maris, G.; Wagenmakers, E.-J.

    2014-01-01

    Diffusion models are widely-used and successful accounts of the time course of two-choice decision making. Most diffusion models assume constant boundaries, which are the threshold levels of evidence that must be sampled from a stimulus to reach a decision. We summarize theoretical results from

  15. Results of steel containment vessel model test

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Luk, V.K.; Ludwigsen, J.S.; Hessheimer, M.F.; Komine, Kuniaki; Matsumoto, Tomoyuki; Costello, J.F.

    1998-05-01

    A series of static overpressurization tests of scale models of nuclear containment structures is being conducted by Sandia National Laboratories for the Nuclear Power Engineering Corporation of Japan and the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission. Two tests are being conducted: (1) a test of a model of a steel containment vessel (SCV) and (2) a test of a model of a prestressed concrete containment vessel (PCCV). This paper summarizes the conduct of the high pressure pneumatic test of the SCV model and the results of that test. Results of this test are summarized and are compared with pretest predictions performed by the sponsoring organizations and others who participated in a blind pretest prediction effort. Questions raised by this comparison are identified and plans for posttest analysis are discussed

  16. The role of doing and making models with materials

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Kirsten Bonde; Evers, Winie

    2015-01-01

    This paper seeks to demonstrate the central role of making and creating models in what we call “designerly and human-centred entrepreneurship”. We refer to empirics from studies of Danish entrepreneurs working on how to develop their businesses. In Drucker´s (2001) “Management Challenges for the 21......, 2011) about personal values in life and in business. Thus, our outline of ‘designerly and human-centred entrepreneursip’ builds on designerly ways of knowing (Cross,1982), Drucker’s idea about value clarification and self-management (2000), as well as Sheldon’s idea about ‘motivation’ (2012). We frame...... and identity. Thus we highlight, and suggest the current design management discourse to promote, the strong role design processes with materials can play in business modelling and entrepreneurship....

  17. A Hybrid Multiple Criteria Decision Making Model for Supplier Selection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chung-Min Wu

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The sustainable supplier selection would be the vital part in the management of a sustainable supply chain. In this study, a hybrid multiple criteria decision making (MCDM model is applied to select optimal supplier. The fuzzy Delphi method, which can lead to better criteria selection, is used to modify criteria. Considering the interdependence among the selection criteria, analytic network process (ANP is then used to obtain their weights. To avoid calculation and additional pairwise comparisons of ANP, a technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS is used to rank the alternatives. The use of a combination of the fuzzy Delphi method, ANP, and TOPSIS, proposing an MCDM model for supplier selection, and applying these to a real case are the unique features of this study.

  18. A physiological production model for cacao : results of model simulations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zuidema, P.A.; Leffelaar, P.A.

    2002-01-01

    CASE2 is a physiological model for cocoa (Theobroma cacao L.) growth and yield. This report introduces the CAcao Simulation Engine for water-limited production in a non-technical way and presents simulation results obtained with the model.

  19. Automatically updating predictive modeling workflows support decision-making in drug design.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muegge, Ingo; Bentzien, Jörg; Mukherjee, Prasenjit; Hughes, Robert O

    2016-09-01

    Using predictive models for early decision-making in drug discovery has become standard practice. We suggest that model building needs to be automated with minimum input and low technical maintenance requirements. Models perform best when tailored to answering specific compound optimization related questions. If qualitative answers are required, 2-bin classification models are preferred. Integrating predictive modeling results with structural information stimulates better decision making. For in silico models supporting rapid structure-activity relationship cycles the performance deteriorates within weeks. Frequent automated updates of predictive models ensure best predictions. Consensus between multiple modeling approaches increases the prediction confidence. Combining qualified and nonqualified data optimally uses all available information. Dose predictions provide a holistic alternative to multiple individual property predictions for reaching complex decisions.

  20. The professional medical ethics model of decision making under conditions of clinical uncertainty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCullough, Laurence B

    2013-02-01

    The professional medical ethics model of decision making may be applied to decisions clinicians and patients make under the conditions of clinical uncertainty that exist when evidence is low or very low. This model uses the ethical concepts of medicine as a profession, the professional virtues of integrity and candor and the patient's virtue of prudence, the moral management of medical uncertainty, and trial of intervention. These features combine to justifiably constrain clinicians' and patients' autonomy with the goal of preventing nondeliberative decisions of patients and clinicians. To prevent biased recommendations by the clinician that promote such nondeliberative decisions, medically reasonable alternatives supported by low or very low evidence should be offered but not recommended. The professional medical ethics model of decision making aims to improve the quality of decisions by reducing the unacceptable variation that can result from nondeliberative decision making by patients and clinicians when evidence is low or very low.

  1. Interpreting Results from the Multinomial Logit Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wulff, Jesper

    2015-01-01

    This article provides guidelines and illustrates practical steps necessary for an analysis of results from the multinomial logit model (MLM). The MLM is a popular model in the strategy literature because it allows researchers to examine strategic choices with multiple outcomes. However, there seem...... to be systematic issues with regard to how researchers interpret their results when using the MLM. In this study, I present a set of guidelines critical to analyzing and interpreting results from the MLM. The procedure involves intuitive graphical representations of predicted probabilities and marginal effects...... suitable for both interpretation and communication of results. The pratical steps are illustrated through an application of the MLM to the choice of foreign market entry mode....

  2. Treatment decision-making and the form of risk communication: results of a factorial survey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Holmes-Rovner Margaret

    2004-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Prospective users of preventive therapies often must evaluate complex information about therapeutic risks and benefits. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effect of relative and absolute risk information on patient decision-making in scenarios typical of health information for patients. Methods Factorial experiments within a telephone survey of the Michigan adult, non-institutionalized, English-speaking population. Average interview lasted 23 minutes. Subjects and sample design: 952 randomly selected adults within a random-digit dial sample of Michigan households. Completion rate was 54.3%. Results When presented hypothetical information regarding additional risks of breast cancer from a medication to prevent a bone disease, respondents reduced their willingness to recommend a female friend take the medication compared to the baseline rate (66.8% = yes. The decrease was significantly greater with relative risk information. Additional benefit information regarding preventing heart disease from the medication increased willingness to recommend the medication to a female friend relative to the baseline scenario, but did not differ between absolute and relative risk formats. When information about both increased risk of breast cancer and reduced risk of heart disease were provided, typical respondents appeared to make rational decisions consistent with Expected Utility Theory, but the information presentation format affected choices. Those 11% – 33% making decisions contrary to the medical indications were more likely to be Hispanic, older, more educated, smokers, and to have children in the home. Conclusions In scenarios typical of health risk information, relative risk information led respondents to make non-normative decisions that were "corrected" when the frame used absolute risk information. This population sample made generally rational decisions when presented with absolute risk information, even in the

  3. A Conceptual Model of the Role of Communication in Surrogate Decision Making for Hospitalized Adults

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torke, Alexia M.; Petronio, Sandra; Sachs, Greg A.; Helft, Paul R.; Purnell, Christianna

    2011-01-01

    Objective To build a conceptual model of the role of communication in decision making, based on literature from medicine, communication studies and medical ethics. Methods We propose a model and describe each construct in detail. We review what is known about interpersonal and patient-physician communication, describe literature about surrogate-clinician communication, and discuss implications for our developing model. Results The communication literature proposes two major elements of interpersonal communication: information processing and relationship building. These elements are composed of constructs such as information disclosure and emotional support that are likely to be relevant to decision making. We propose these elements of communication impact decision making, which in turn affects outcomes for both patients and surrogates. Decision making quality may also mediate the relationship between communication and outcomes. Conclusion Although many elements of the model have been studied in relation to patient-clinician communication, there is limited data about surrogate decision making. There is evidence of high surrogate distress associated with decision making that may be alleviated by communication–focused interventions. More research is needed to test the relationships proposed in the model. Practice Implications Good communication with surrogates may improve both the quality of medical decisions and outcomes for the patient and surrogate. PMID:21889865

  4. Model approach to starch functionality in bread making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goesaert, Hans; Leman, Pedro; Delcour, Jan A

    2008-08-13

    We used modified wheat starches in gluten-starch flour models to study the role of starch in bread making. Incorporation of hydroxypropylated starch in the recipe reduced loaf volume and initial crumb firmness and increased crumb gas cell size. Firming rate and firmness after storage increased for loaves containing the least hydroxypropylated starch. Inclusion of cross-linked starch had little effect on loaf volume or crumb structure but increased crumb firmness. The firming rate was mostly similar to that of control samples. Presumably, the moment and extent of starch gelatinization and the concomitant water migration influence the structure formation during baking. Initial bread firmness seems determined by the rigidity of the gelatinized granules and leached amylose. Amylopectin retrogradation and strengthening of a long-range network by intensifying the inter- and intramolecular starch-starch and possibly also starch-gluten interactions (presumably because of water incorporation in retrograded amylopectin crystallites) play an important role in firming.

  5. Decision making with consonant belief functions: Discrepancy resulting with the probability transformation method used

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cinicioglu Esma Nur

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Dempster−Shafer belief function theory can address a wider class of uncertainty than the standard probability theory does, and this fact appeals the researchers in operations research society for potential application areas. However, the lack of a decision theory of belief functions gives rise to the need to use the probability transformation methods for decision making. For representation of statistical evidence, the class of consonant belief functions is used which is not closed under Dempster’s rule of combination but is closed under Walley’s rule of combination. In this research, it is shown that the outcomes obtained using both Dempster’s and Walley’s rules do result in different probability distributions when pignistic transformation is used. However, when plausibility transformation is used, they do result in the same probability distribution. This result shows that the choice of the combination rule and probability transformation method may have a significant effect on decision making since it may change the choice of the decision alternative selected. This result is illustrated via an example of missile type identification.

  6. Information and Decision-Making Needs Among People with Anxiety Disorders: Results of an Online Survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liebherz, Sarah; Härter, Martin; Dirmaier, Jörg; Tlach, Lisa

    2015-12-01

    People with anxiety disorders are faced with treatment decisions considerably affecting their life. Patient decision aids are aimed at enabling patients to deliberate treatment options based on individual values and to participate in medical decisions. This is the first study to determine patients' information and decision-making needs as a pre-requisite for the development of patient decision aids for anxiety disorders. An online cross-sectional survey was conducted between January and April 2013 on the e-health portal http://www.psychenet.de by using a self-administered questionnaire with items on internet use, online health information needs, role in decision making and important treatment decisions. Descriptive and inferential statistical as well as qualitative data analyses were performed. A total of 60 people with anxiety disorders with a mean age of 33.3 years (SD 10.5) participated in the survey. The most prevalent reasons for online health information search were the need for general information on anxiety disorders, the search for a physician or psychiatrist and the insufficiency of information given by the healthcare provider. Respondents experienced less shared and more autonomous decisions than they preferred. They assessed decisions on psychotherapy, medication, and treatment setting (inpatient or outpatient) as the most difficult decisions. Our results confirm the importance of offering patient decision aids for people with anxiety disorders that encourage patients to participate in decision making by providing information about the pros and cons of evidence-based treatment options.

  7. Management decision making for fisher populations informed by occupancy modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuller, Angela K.; Linden, Daniel W.; Royle, J. Andrew

    2016-01-01

    Harvest data are often used by wildlife managers when setting harvest regulations for species because the data are regularly collected and do not require implementation of logistically and financially challenging studies to obtain the data. However, when harvest data are not available because an area had not previously supported a harvest season, alternative approaches are required to help inform management decision making. When distribution or density data are required across large areas, occupancy modeling is a useful approach, and under certain conditions, can be used as a surrogate for density. We collaborated with the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation (NYSDEC) to conduct a camera trapping study across a 70,096-km2 region of southern New York in areas that were currently open to fisher (Pekania [Martes] pennanti) harvest and those that had been closed to harvest for approximately 65 years. We used detection–nondetection data at 826 sites to model occupancy as a function of site-level landscape characteristics while accounting for sampling variation. Fisher occupancy was influenced positively by the proportion of conifer and mixed-wood forest within a 15-km2 grid cell and negatively associated with road density and the proportion of agriculture. Model-averaged predictions indicated high occupancy probabilities (>0.90) when road densities were low (0.50). Predicted occupancy ranged 0.41–0.67 in wildlife management units (WMUs) currently open to trapping, which could be used to guide a minimum occupancy threshold for opening new areas to trapping seasons. There were 5 WMUs that had been closed to trapping but had an average predicted occupancy of 0.52 (0.07 SE), and above the threshold of 0.41. These areas are currently under consideration by NYSDEC for opening a conservative harvest season. We demonstrate the use of occupancy modeling as an aid to management decision making when harvest-related data are unavailable and when budgetary

  8. Decision-making model of generation technology under uncertainty based on real option theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ming, Zeng; Ping, Zhang; Shunkun, Yu; Ge, Zhang

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • A decision-making model of generation technology investment is proposed. • The irreversible investment concept and real option theory is introduced. • Practical data was used to prove the validity of the model. • Impact of electricity and fuel price fluctuation on investment was analyzed. - Abstract: The introduction of market competition and the increased uncertainty factors makes the generators have to decide not only on whether to invest generation capacity or not but also on what kind of generation technology to choose. In this paper, a decision-making model of generation technology investment is proposed. The irreversible investment concept and real option theory is introduced as the fundamental of the model. In order to explain the decision-making process of generator’s investment, the decision-making optimization model was built considering two generation technologies, i.e., the heat-only system and the combined heat and power generation. Also, we discussed the theory deducing process, which explained how to eliminate the overrated economic potential caused by risk hazard, based on economic evaluation of both generation technologies. Finally, practical data from electricity market of Inner Mongolia was used to prove the validity of the model and the impact of uncertainties of electricity and fuel price fluctuation on investment was analyzed according to the simulated results.

  9. Prognostic risk models for transplant decision-making in myelofibrosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hernández-Boluda, Juan-Carlos; Pereira, Arturo; Correa, Juan-Gonzalo; Alvarez-Larrán, Alberto; Ferrer-Marín, Francisca; Raya, José-María; Martínez-López, Joaquín; Velez, Patricia; Pérez-Encinas, Manuel; Estrada, Natalia; García-Gutiérrez, Valentín; Fox, María-Laura; Payer, Angel; Kerguelen, Ana; Cuevas, Beatriz; Durán, María-Antonia; Ramírez, María-José; Gómez-Casares, María-Teresa; Mata-Vázquez, María-Isabel; Mora, Elvira; Gómez, Montse; Cervantes, Francisco

    2018-05-01

    Prognostic models are widely used in clinical practice for transplant decision-making in myelofibrosis (MF). We have compared the performance of the International Prognostic Scoring System (IPSS), dynamic IPSS (DIPSS), and DIPSS-plus in a series of 544 patients with primary or secondary MF aged ≤ 70 years at the time of diagnosis. The median projected survival of the overall series was 9.46 years (95% confidence interval 7.44-10.59). Median survival for the highest risk groups was less than 4 years in the three prognostic models. By contrast, the projected survival for patients in the intermediate-2 categories by the IPSS, DIPSS, and DIPSS-plus was 6.6, 5.6, and 6.5 years, respectively. The number of patients in the intermediate-2 and high-risk categories was smaller in the DIPSS than in the IPSS or the DIPSS-plus. The IPSS and DIPSS-plus were the best models to discriminate between the intermediate-1 and intermediate-2 risk categories, which is a critical cut-off point for patient selection to transplant. Among patients assigned at diagnosis to the intermediate-2 or high-risk groups by the IPSS, DIPSS, and DIPSS-plus, only 17, 21, and 20%, respectively, were subsequently transplanted. In conclusion, in our contemporary series of younger MF patients only the highest risk categories of the current prognostication systems have a median survival below the 5-year threshold recommended for considering transplantation. Patient selection for transplantation can significantly differ depending on which prognostication model is used for disease risk stratification.

  10. Training Inference Making Skills Using a Situation Model Approach Improves Reading Comprehension

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lisanne eBos

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available This study aimed to enhance third and fourth graders’ text comprehension at the situation model level. Therefore, we tested a reading strategy training developed to target inference making skills, which are widely considered to be pivotal to situation model construction. The training was grounded in contemporary literature on situation model-based inference making and addressed the source (text-based versus knowledge-based, type (necessary versus unnecessary for (re-establishing coherence, and depth of an inference (making single lexical inferences versus combining multiple lexical inferences, as well as the type of searching strategy (forward versus backward. Results indicated that, compared to a control group (n = 51, children who followed the experimental training (n = 67 improved their inference making skills supportive to situation model construction. Importantly, our training also resulted in increased levels of general reading comprehension and motivation. In sum, this study showed that a ‘level of text representation’-approach can provide a useful framework to teach inference making skills to third and fourth graders.

  11. UTILIZATION OF EVALUATION RESULTS IN LEGAL POLICY-MAKING AND ADMINISTRATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hellmut Wollmann

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The article is devoted to the analysis of evaluation method and its impact on legal policy development in governance, including in the area of law enforcement.The author outlines the importance of question whether, when and how the evaluation results of public policies, programs and measures has been utilized (or not utilized in policy making and policy implementation.In the pursuit of this guiding question the article will come in five steps.First, major variants of evaluation will be briefly presented particularly with an eye on their respective “utilization potential”.Second, different concepts will be sketched that have been forwarded to capture the utilization of social science generated knowledge by political, administrative and social actors. The author outlines a detailed description of types of evaluations: a retrospective, prelimi-nary, ongoing, interactive, – as well as existing concepts of application of its results.Third, looking at Germany, Switzerland and the European Union as “cases in point” perti-ent research findings will be discussed. The article also subjected to a detailed analysis of the experience of Germany, Switzerland and the European Union in the field of utilization of evaluation results.Fourth, a summary and conclusion will be given.Fifth, some remarks on pertinent research needs will be made.The author comes to the conclusion that that the rate of the utilization of evaluation-generated knowledge has so far turned out be, by and large, scarce. The author says that re-garding the politically crucial decisions the political rationality and its underlying political will of the decision-makers prevail while concerning less important decisions evaluation-generated evidence does show some effect and, hence, a dose of scientific rationality comes to the fore.There is also a need for further research on the subject of how should (and should not use assessment results when making legal and political decisions.

  12. Knowledge Co-production Strategies for Water Resources Modeling and Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gober, P.

    2016-12-01

    The limited impact of scientific information on policy making and climate adaptation in North America has raised awareness of the need for new modeling strategies and knowledge transfer processes. This paper outlines the rationale for a new paradigm in water resources modeling and management, using examples from the USA and Canada. Principles include anticipatory modeling, complex system dynamics, decision making under uncertainty, visualization, capacity to represent and manipulate critical trade-offs, stakeholder engagement, local knowledge, context-specific activities, social learning, vulnerability analysis, iterative and collaborative modeling, and the concept of a boundary organization. In this framework, scientists and stakeholders are partners in the production and dissemination of knowledge for decision making, and local knowledge is fused with scientific observation and methodology. Discussion draws from experience in building long-term collaborative boundary organizations in Phoenix, Arizona in the USA and the Saskatchewan River Basin (SRB) in Canada. Examples of boundary spanning activities include the use of visualization, the concept of a decision theater, infrastructure to support social learning, social networks, and reciprocity, simulation modeling to explore "what if" scenarios of the future, surveys to elicit how water problems are framed by scientists and stakeholders, and humanistic activities (theatrical performances, art exhibitions, etc.) to draw attention to local water issues. The social processes surrounding model development and dissemination are at least as important as modeling assumptions, procedures, and results in determining whether scientific knowledge will be used effectively for water resources decision making.

  13. Summary of FY15 results of benchmark modeling activities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Arguello, J. Guadalupe [Sandia National Laboratories (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2015-08-01

    Sandia is participating in the third phase of an is a contributing partner to a U.S.-German "Joint Project" entitled "Comparison of current constitutive models and simulation procedures on the basis of model calculations of the thermo-mechanical behavior and healing of rock salt." The first goal of the project is to check the ability of numerical modeling tools to correctly describe the relevant deformation phenomena in rock salt under various influences. Achieving this goal will lead to increased confidence in the results of numerical simulations related to the secure storage of radioactive wastes in rock salt, thereby enhancing the acceptance of the results. These results may ultimately be used to make various assertions regarding both the stability analysis of an underground repository in salt, during the operating phase, and the long-term integrity of the geological barrier against the release of harmful substances into the biosphere, in the post-operating phase.

  14. The Effects of Model Making on Design and Learning in Landscape Architecture Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duzenli, Tugba; Yilmaz, Serap; Alpak, Elif Merve

    2017-01-01

    Purpose: One of the modeling methods used in the training of all design disciplines is physical model making. This study investigates the model-making technique and emphasizes the positive effects of model-making and its utility in the academic setting in order to understand its effects on design and learning. The "Equipment Design"…

  15. A case study of high school teachers' decision making models for planning and teaching science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duschl, Richard A.; Wright, Emmett

    The focus of this study was to investigate the manner and the degree to which science teachers consider the nature of the subject matter in their decision making addressing the planning and the delivery of instructional tasks. An assumption of the study is that considerations for the nature of the subject matter should be a factor in a teacher's decision making about what to teach and how to teach. Relevant research literature reviewed includes (1) human decision making and the development of cognitive models of reality, (2) modern philosophies of science, and (3) philosophy of science and science education. Methods of data collection and of data analysis followed Spradley's Developmental Research Sequence guidelines for conducting ethnographic research. Validity of research findings was established from the triangulation of observations, interviews, and documents and surveys. The goal of the research was the development of grounded hypotheses about science TEACHERS' pedagogical decision making. Based on the results of this study it is hypothesized that science TEACHERS' decision-making models of reality for the selection, implementation, and development of instructional tasks are dominated by considerations for (a) student development, (b) curriculum guide objectives, and (c) pressures of accountability. Little, if any, consideration is given to the nature of the subject matter by the science teachers in decision making. Implications exist for the disenfranchisement of teachers from the task of making decisions concerning what to teach.

  16. Make-up wells drilling cost in financial model for a geothermal project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oktaviani Purwaningsih, Fitri; Husnie, Ruly; Afuar, Waldy; Abdurrahman, Gugun

    2017-12-01

    After commissioning of a power plant, geothermal reservoir will encounter pressure decline, which will affect wells productivity. Therefore, further drilling is carried out to enhance steam production. Make-up wells are production wells drilled inside an already confirmed reservoir to maintain steam production in a certain level. Based on Sanyal (2004), geothermal power cost consists of three components, those are capital cost, O&M cost and make-up drilling cost. The make-up drilling cost component is a major part of power cost which will give big influence in a whole economical value of the project. The objective of this paper it to analyse the make-up wells drilling cost component in financial model of a geothermal power project. The research will calculate make-up wells requirements, drilling costs as a function of time and how they influence the financial model and affect the power cost. The best scenario in determining make-up wells strategy in relation with the project financial model would be the result of this research.

  17. MODELING OF ACCOUNTING ASPECTS OF FINANCIAL RESULTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hrayr HANISYAN

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Modern trends in world economy require expanding functional informational capabilities of financial statements. Market-oriented users of financial statements are interested in information necessary when making decisions of financial character.

  18. RESEARCH OF MULTICRITERIAL DECISION-MAKING MODEL FOR EDUCATIONAL INFORMATION SYSTEMS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. V. Serbin

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Subject of Research. Decision-making model is offered for informational and educational systems. The study of multi-criteria model is carried out taking into account knowledge, reaction and doubt. Method. The model of material proficiency by the user is based on identification of the personal characteristics when operating with the system. As a result of personal characteristics tracking in the system, an image is formed for each user that can be used for identifying his state: knowledge level, proportion of error, handwriting information, etc. During registration the user is passing an input test. Multi-criteria test results are automatically stored in the user's personal database (agent matrix and accounted for psychological comfort, formation of the next system content, management of knowledge levels, decision-making when working with the system. The proposed method gives a more clear and "transparent situational picture" for objective decision-making. Main Results. Implementation of multi-criteria decision-making model contributes to the quality of distance education. Also, the method makes it possible to reduce the probability of guessing the correct answer, thus increases the objectivity of knowledge level evaluation in diagnostic systems for management of learning process based on remote technologies. Practical Relevance. Obtained theoretical results of the work are used in training systems on the basis of multi-criteria decision models. Thus, the proposed model leads to an increase in the average score of about 0.3-0.4 points and reduces the training time in 1.5 to 2.0 times.

  19. The Danish national passenger modelModel specification and results

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rich, Jeppe; Hansen, Christian Overgaard

    2016-01-01

    , the paper provides a description of a large-scale forecast model with a discussion of the linkage between population synthesis, demand and assignment. Secondly, the paper gives specific attention to model specification and in particular choice of functional form and cost-damping. Specifically we suggest...... a family of logarithmic spline functions and illustrate how it is applied in the model. Thirdly and finally, we evaluate model sensitivity and performance by evaluating the distance distribution and elasticities. In the paper we present results where the spline-function is compared with more traditional...... function types and it is indicated that the spline-function provides a better description of the data. Results are also provided in the form of a back-casting exercise where the model is tested in a back-casting scenario to 2002....

  20. ICADS: A cooperative decision making model with CLIPS experts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pohl, Jens; Myers, Leonard

    1991-01-01

    A cooperative decision making model is described which is comprised of six concurrently executing domain experts coordinated by a blackboard control expert. The focus application field is architectural design, and the domain experts represent consultants in the area of daylighting, noise control, structural support, cost estimating, space planning, and climate responsiveness. Both the domain experts and the blackboard were implemented as production systems, using an enhanced version of the basic CLIPS package. Acting in unison as an Expert Design Advisor, the domain and control experts react to the evolving design solution progressively developed by the user in a 2-D CAD drawing environment. A Geometry Interpreter maps each drawing action taken by the user to real world objects, such as spaces, walls, windows, and doors. These objects, endowed with geometric and nongeometric attributes, are stored as frames in a semantic network. Object descriptions are derived partly from the geometry of the drawing environment and partly from knowledge bases containing prototypical, generalized information about the building type and site conditions under consideration.

  1. Simulation and Optimization Models in a Business Game for Decision-Making in Logistics Processes

    OpenAIRE

    Butzke, Marco,; Alberton, Anete; Visentainer, Jeancarlo; Garcia, Solimar; Alencar Nääs, Irenilza,

    2016-01-01

    Part 7: Large-Scale Supply Chains; International audience; Business games using simulation and optimization models can help users to find out solutions to complex management problems and develop critical and strategic thinking skills. The main goal of this paper is to present the application of a business game provided with a simulation and optimization model for decision-making in logistics processes, including total cost, calculated results of costs and trade-offs involved in the logistics ...

  2. A cultural-psychological model of musical learning by making music

    OpenAIRE

    Hultberg, Cecilia K.

    2009-01-01

    This article presents a cultural-psychological model of musical learning, based on results from several longitudinal case studies consisting of many-sided data collected in different contexts of making music. Here the discussion is limited to learning by playing instruments. Starting out from the learning triangle as presented in cultural history, cultural tools are seen as mediators establishing the connection between the learner and the learning object. The model describes musical learni...

  3. A fuzzy multi-criteria decision-making model for trigeneration system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Jiangjiang; Jing Youyin; Zhang Chunfa; Shi Guohua; Zhang Xutao

    2008-01-01

    The decision making for trigeneration systems is a compositive project and it should be evaluated and compared in a multi-criteria analysis method. This paper presents a fuzzy multi-criteria decision-making model (FMCDM) for trigeneration systems selection and evaluation. The multi-criteria decision-making methods are briefly reviewed combining the general decision-making process. Then the fuzzy set theory, weighting method and the FMCDM model are presented. Finally, several kinds of trigeneration systems, whose dynamical sources are, respectively stirling engine, gas turbine, gas engine and solid oxide fuel cell, are compared and evaluated with a separate generation system. The case for selecting the optimal trigeneration system applied to a residential building is assessed from the technical, economical, environmental and social aspects, and the FMCDM model combining analytic hierarchical process is applied to the trigeneration case to demonstrate the decision-making process and effectiveness of proposed model. The results show that the gas engine plus lithium bromide absorption water heater/chiller unit for the residential building is the best scheme in the five options

  4. Reward optimization in the primate brain: a probabilistic model of decision making under uncertainty.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yanping Huang

    Full Text Available A key problem in neuroscience is understanding how the brain makes decisions under uncertainty. Important insights have been gained using tasks such as the random dots motion discrimination task in which the subject makes decisions based on noisy stimuli. A descriptive model known as the drift diffusion model has previously been used to explain psychometric and reaction time data from such tasks but to fully explain the data, one is forced to make ad-hoc assumptions such as a time-dependent collapsing decision boundary. We show that such assumptions are unnecessary when decision making is viewed within the framework of partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs. We propose an alternative model for decision making based on POMDPs. We show that the motion discrimination task reduces to the problems of (1 computing beliefs (posterior distributions over the unknown direction and motion strength from noisy observations in a bayesian manner, and (2 selecting actions based on these beliefs to maximize the expected sum of future rewards. The resulting optimal policy (belief-to-action mapping is shown to be equivalent to a collapsing decision threshold that governs the switch from evidence accumulation to a discrimination decision. We show that the model accounts for both accuracy and reaction time as a function of stimulus strength as well as different speed-accuracy conditions in the random dots task.

  5. Reward optimization in the primate brain: a probabilistic model of decision making under uncertainty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Yanping; Rao, Rajesh P N

    2013-01-01

    A key problem in neuroscience is understanding how the brain makes decisions under uncertainty. Important insights have been gained using tasks such as the random dots motion discrimination task in which the subject makes decisions based on noisy stimuli. A descriptive model known as the drift diffusion model has previously been used to explain psychometric and reaction time data from such tasks but to fully explain the data, one is forced to make ad-hoc assumptions such as a time-dependent collapsing decision boundary. We show that such assumptions are unnecessary when decision making is viewed within the framework of partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs). We propose an alternative model for decision making based on POMDPs. We show that the motion discrimination task reduces to the problems of (1) computing beliefs (posterior distributions) over the unknown direction and motion strength from noisy observations in a bayesian manner, and (2) selecting actions based on these beliefs to maximize the expected sum of future rewards. The resulting optimal policy (belief-to-action mapping) is shown to be equivalent to a collapsing decision threshold that governs the switch from evidence accumulation to a discrimination decision. We show that the model accounts for both accuracy and reaction time as a function of stimulus strength as well as different speed-accuracy conditions in the random dots task.

  6. Service Level Decision-making in Rural Physiotherapy: Development of Conceptual Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adams, Robyn; Jones, Anne; Lefmann, Sophie; Sheppard, Lorraine

    2016-06-01

    Understanding decision-making about health service provision is increasingly important in an environment of increasing demand and constrained resources. Multiple factors are likely to influence decisions about which services will be provided, yet workforce is the most noted factor in the rural physiotherapy literature. This paper draws together results obtained from exploration of service level decision-making (SLDM) to propose 'conceptual' models of rural physiotherapy SLDM. A prioritized qualitative approach enabled exploration of participant perspectives about rural physiotherapy decision-making. Stakeholder perspectives were obtained through surveys and in-depth interviews. Interviews were transcribed verbatim and reviewed by participants. Participant confidentiality was maintained by coding both participants and sites. A system theory-case study heuristic provided a framework for exploration across sites within the investigation area: a large area of one Australian state with a mix of regional, rural and remote communities. Thirty-nine surveys were received from participants in 11 communities. Nineteen in-depth interviews were conducted with physiotherapists and key decision-makers. Results reveal the complexity of factors influencing rural physiotherapy service provision and the value of a systems approach when exploring decision-making about rural physiotherapy service provision. Six key features were identified that formed the rural physiotherapy SLDM system: capacity and capability; contextual influences; layered decision-making; access issues; value and beliefs; and tensions and conflict. Rural physiotherapy SLDM is not a one-dimensional process but results from the complex interaction of clusters of systems issues. Decision-making about physiotherapy service provision is influenced by both internal and external factors. Similarities in influencing factors and the iterative nature of decision-making emerged, which enabled linking physiotherapy SLDM with

  7. The analysis of the capacity of the selected measures of decision-making models in companies

    OpenAIRE

    Helena Kościelniak; Beata Skowron-Grabowska; Sylwia Łęgowik-Świącik; Małgorzata Łęgowik-Małolepsza

    2015-01-01

    The paper aims at the analysis of the information capacity of selected instruments of the assessment of decision-making models in the analyzed companies. In the paper there are presented the idea and concepts of decision-making models. There have been discussed the selected instruments of the assessment of decision-making models in enterprises. In the final part of the paper there has been held the quantification of decision- making models in the investigated cement industry companies. To mee...

  8. Scale Model Thruster Acoustic Measurement Results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vargas, Magda; Kenny, R. Jeremy

    2013-01-01

    The Space Launch System (SLS) Scale Model Acoustic Test (SMAT) is a 5% scale representation of the SLS vehicle, mobile launcher, tower, and launch pad trench. The SLS launch propulsion system will be comprised of the Rocket Assisted Take-Off (RATO) motors representing the solid boosters and 4 Gas Hydrogen (GH2) thrusters representing the core engines. The GH2 thrusters were tested in a horizontal configuration in order to characterize their performance. In Phase 1, a single thruster was fired to determine the engine performance parameters necessary for scaling a single engine. A cluster configuration, consisting of the 4 thrusters, was tested in Phase 2 to integrate the system and determine their combined performance. Acoustic and overpressure data was collected during both test phases in order to characterize the system's acoustic performance. The results from the single thruster and 4- thuster system are discussed and compared.

  9. CMS standard model Higgs boson results

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Garcia-Abia Pablo

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available In July 2012 CMS announced the discovery of a new boson with properties resembling those of the long-sought Higgs boson. The analysis of the proton-proton collision data recorded by the CMS detector at the LHC, corresponding to integrated luminosities of 5.1 fb−1 at √s = 7 TeV and 19.6 fb−1 at √s = 8 TeV, confirm the Higgs-like nature of the new boson, with a signal strength associated with vector bosons and fermions consistent with the expectations for a standard model (SM Higgs boson, and spin-parity clearly favouring the scalar nature of the new boson. In this note I review the updated results of the CMS experiment.

  10. A System Dynamics Model for Integrated Decision Making ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA’s Sustainable and Healthy Communities Research Program (SHC) is conducting transdisciplinary research to inform and empower decision-makers. EPA tools and approaches are being developed to enable communities to effectively weigh and integrate human health, socioeconomic, environmental, and ecological factors into their decisions to promote community sustainability. To help achieve this goal, EPA researchers have developed systems approaches to account for the linkages among resources, assets, and outcomes managed by a community. System dynamics (SD) is a member of the family of systems approaches and provides a framework for dynamic modeling that can assist with assessing and understanding complex issues across multiple dimensions. To test the utility of such tools when applied to a real-world situation, the EPA has developed a prototype SD model for community sustainability using the proposed Durham-Orange Light Rail Project (D-O LRP) as a case study.The EPA D-O LRP SD modeling team chose the proposed D-O LRP to demonstrate that an integrated modeling approach could represent the multitude of related cross-sectoral decisions that would be made and the cascading impacts that could result from a light rail transit system connecting Durham and Chapel Hill, NC. In keeping with the SHC vision described above, the proposal for the light rail is a starting point solution for the more intractable problems of population growth, unsustainable land use, environmenta

  11. Decision-making under uncertainty: results from an experiment conducted at EGU 2012

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramos, Maria-Helena; van Andel, Schalk Jan; Pappenberger, Florian

    2013-04-01

    Do probabilistic forecasts lead to better decisions? At the EGU General Assembly 2012, we conducted a laboratory-style experiment to address this question. Several cases of flood forecasts and a choice of actions to take were presented as part of a game to participants, who acted as decision makers. Participants were prompted to make decisions when forecasts were provided with and without uncertainty information. They had to decide whether to open or not a gate which was the inlet of a retention basin designed to protect a town. The rules were such that: if they decided to open the gate, the retention basin was flooded and the farmers in this basin demanded a compensation for flooding their land; if they decided not to open the gate and a flood occurred on the river, the town was flooded and they had to pay a fine to the town. Participants were encouraged to keep note of their individual decisions in a worksheet. About 100 worksheets were collected at the end of the game and the results of their evaluation are presented here. In general, they show that decisions are based on a combination of what is displayed by the expected (forecast) value and what is given by the uncertainty information. In the absence of uncertainty information, decision makers are compelled towards a more risk-averse attitude. Besides, more money was lost by a large majority of participants when they had to make decisions without uncertainty information. Limitations of the experiment setting are discussed, as well as the importance of the development of training tools to increase effectiveness in the use of probabilistic predictions to support decisions under uncertainty.

  12. Model of human collective decision-making in complex environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carbone, Giuseppe; Giannoccaro, Ilaria

    2015-12-01

    A continuous-time Markov process is proposed to analyze how a group of humans solves a complex task, consisting in the search of the optimal set of decisions on a fitness landscape. Individuals change their opinions driven by two different forces: (i) the self-interest, which pushes them to increase their own fitness values, and (ii) the social interactions, which push individuals to reduce the diversity of their opinions in order to reach consensus. Results show that the performance of the group is strongly affected by the strength of social interactions and by the level of knowledge of the individuals. Increasing the strength of social interactions improves the performance of the team. However, too strong social interactions slow down the search of the optimal solution and worsen the performance of the group. In particular, we find that the threshold value of the social interaction strength, which leads to the emergence of a superior intelligence of the group, is just the critical threshold at which the consensus among the members sets in. We also prove that a moderate level of knowledge is already enough to guarantee high performance of the group in making decisions.

  13. A collaborative video sketching model in the making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gundersen, Peter; Ørngreen, Rikke; Henningsen, Birgitte

    2018-01-01

    The literature on design research emphasizes working in iterative cycles that investigate and explore many ideas and alternative designs. However, these cycles are seldom applied or documented in educational research papers. In this paper, we illustrate the development process of a video sketching...... model, where we explore the relation between the educational research design team, their sketching and video sketching activities. The results show how sketching can be done in different modes and how it supports thinking, communication, reflection and distributed cognition in design teams when...

  14. Developing model-making and model-breaking skills using direct measurement video-based activities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vonk, Matthew; Bohacek, Peter; Militello, Cheryl; Iverson, Ellen

    2017-12-01

    This study focuses on student development of two important laboratory skills in the context of introductory college-level physics. The first skill, which we call model making, is the ability to analyze a phenomenon in a way that produces a quantitative multimodal model. The second skill, which we call model breaking, is the ability to critically evaluate if the behavior of a system is consistent with a given model. This study involved 116 introductory physics students in four different sections, each taught by a different instructor. All of the students within a given class section participated in the same instruction (including labs) with the exception of five activities performed throughout the semester. For those five activities, each class section was split into two groups; one group was scaffolded to focus on model-making skills and the other was scaffolded to focus on model-breaking skills. Both conditions involved direct measurement videos. In some cases, students could vary important experimental parameters within the video like mass, frequency, and tension. Data collected at the end of the semester indicate that students in the model-making treatment group significantly outperformed the other group on the model-making skill despite the fact that both groups shared a common physical lab experience. Likewise, the model-breaking treatment group significantly outperformed the other group on the model-breaking skill. This is important because it shows that direct measurement video-based instruction can help students acquire science-process skills, which are critical for scientists, and which are a key part of current science education approaches such as the Next Generation Science Standards and the Advanced Placement Physics 1 course.

  15. Developing model-making and model-breaking skills using direct measurement video-based activities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthew Vonk

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available This study focuses on student development of two important laboratory skills in the context of introductory college-level physics. The first skill, which we call model making, is the ability to analyze a phenomenon in a way that produces a quantitative multimodal model. The second skill, which we call model breaking, is the ability to critically evaluate if the behavior of a system is consistent with a given model. This study involved 116 introductory physics students in four different sections, each taught by a different instructor. All of the students within a given class section participated in the same instruction (including labs with the exception of five activities performed throughout the semester. For those five activities, each class section was split into two groups; one group was scaffolded to focus on model-making skills and the other was scaffolded to focus on model-breaking skills. Both conditions involved direct measurement videos. In some cases, students could vary important experimental parameters within the video like mass, frequency, and tension. Data collected at the end of the semester indicate that students in the model-making treatment group significantly outperformed the other group on the model-making skill despite the fact that both groups shared a common physical lab experience. Likewise, the model-breaking treatment group significantly outperformed the other group on the model-breaking skill. This is important because it shows that direct measurement video-based instruction can help students acquire science-process skills, which are critical for scientists, and which are a key part of current science education approaches such as the Next Generation Science Standards and the Advanced Placement Physics 1 course.

  16. Improved decision making about suspected child maltreatment : Results of structuring the decision process

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Kwaadsteniet, Leontien; Bartelink, Cora; Witteman, Cilia; ten Berge, Ingrid; van Yperen, Tom

    ORBA is a method that aims to improve decision making about suspected child maltreatment in Advice and Reporting Centres of Child Abuse and Neglect (ARCCAN). It structures the process of judging and deciding and makes it explicit by distinguishing separate steps, and by identifying the necessary

  17. An optimal decision making model for supporting week hospital management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conforti, Domenico; Guerriero, Francesca; Guido, Rosita; Cerinic, Marco Matucci; Conforti, Maria Letizia

    2011-03-01

    Week Hospital is an innovative inpatient health care organization and management, by which hospital stay services are planned in advance and delivered on week-time basis to elective patients. In this context, a strategic decision is the optimal clinical management of patients, and, in particular, devising efficient and effective admission and scheduling procedures, by tackling different requirements such as beds' availability, diagnostic resources, and treatment capabilities. The main aim is to maximize the patient flow, by ensuring the delivery of all clinical services during the week. In this paper, the optimal management of Week Hospital patients is considered. We have developed and validated an innovative integer programming model, based on clinical resources allocation and beds utilization. In particular, the model aims at scheduling Week Hospital patients' admission/discharge, possibly reducing the length of stay on the basis of an available timetable of clinical services. The performance of the model has been evaluated, in terms of efficiency and robustness, by considering real data coming from a Week Hospital Rheumatology Division. The experimental results have been satisfactory and demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

  18. Interactive use of simulation models for collaborative knowledge construction: the case of flood policy decision-making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Leskens, Anne

    2015-01-01

    There is an increasing use of interactive flood simulation models in work sessions with practitioners, which is supposed to be more effective than feeding static model results from conventional simulation models into the decision-making process. These interactive simulation models rely on fast and

  19. Intelligent decision-making models for production and retail operations

    CERN Document Server

    Guo, Zhaoxia

    2016-01-01

    This book provides an overview of intelligent decision-making techniques and discusses their application in production and retail operations. Manufacturing and retail enterprises have stringent standards for using advanced and reliable techniques to improve decision-making processes, since these processes have significant effects on the performance of relevant operations and the entire supply chain. In recent years, researchers have been increasingly focusing attention on using intelligent techniques to solve various decision-making problems. The opening chapters provide an introduction to several commonly used intelligent techniques, such as genetic algorithm, harmony search, neural network and extreme learning machine. The book then explores the use of these techniques for handling various production and retail decision-making problems, such as production planning and scheduling, assembly line balancing, and sales forecasting.

  20. Making three-dimensional Monson's sphere using virtual dental models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nam, Shin-Eun; Park, Young-Seok; Lee, WooCheol; Ahn, Sug-Joon; Lee, Seung-Pyo

    2013-04-01

    The Monson's sphere and curve of Wilson can be used as reference for prosthetic reconstructions or orthodontic treatments. This study aimed to generate and measure the three-dimensional (3-D) Monson's sphere and curve of Wilson using virtual dental models and custom software. Mandibular dental casts from 79 young adults of Korean descent were scanned and rendered as virtual dental models using a 3-D digitizing scanner. 26 landmarks were digitized on the virtual dental models using a custom made software program. The Monson's sphere was estimated by fitting a sphere to the cusp tips using a least-squares method. Two curves of Wilson were generated by finding the intersecting circle between the Monson's sphere and two vertical planes orthogonal to a virtual occlusal plane. Non-parametric Mann-Whitney and Kruskal-Wallis tests were performed to test for difference between sex and in cusp number within tooth position. The mean radius of Monson's sphere was 110.89 ± 25.75 mm. There were significant differences between males and females in all measurements taken (pocclusal curvature (p>0.05). This study describes a best-fit algorithm for generating 3-D Monson's sphere using occlusal curves quantified from virtual dental models. The radius of Monson's sphere in Korean subjects was greater than the original four-inch value suggested by Monson. The Monson's sphere and curve of Wilson can be used as a reference for prosthetic reconstruction and orthodontic treatment. The data found in this study may be applied to improve dental treatment results. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Models for Editorial Decision Making: The Benefits of Semi-Formality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meyer, Philip

    1978-01-01

    Examines two common informal models for editorial decision making-- the referendum model and the target group model--and suggests a prioritization model that offers greater precision at the price of a modest increase in formality. (GW)

  2. Revisiting Runoff Model Calibration: Airborne Snow Observatory Results Allow Improved Modeling Results

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGurk, B. J.; Painter, T. H.

    2014-12-01

    Deterministic snow accumulation and ablation simulation models are widely used by runoff managers throughout the world to predict runoff quantities and timing. Model fitting is typically based on matching modeled runoff volumes and timing with observed flow time series at a few points in the basin. In recent decades, sparse networks of point measurements of the mountain snowpacks have been available to compare with modeled snowpack, but the comparability of results from a snow sensor or course to model polygons of 5 to 50 sq. km is suspect. However, snowpack extent, depth, and derived snow water equivalent have been produced by the NASA/JPL Airborne Snow Observatory (ASO) mission for spring of 20013 and 2014 in the Tuolumne River basin above Hetch Hetchy Reservoir. These high-resolution snowpack data have exposed the weakness in a model calibration based on runoff alone. The U.S. Geological Survey's Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) calibration that was based on 30-years of inflow to Hetch Hetchy produces reasonable inflow results, but modeled spatial snowpack location and water quantity diverged significantly from the weekly measurements made by ASO during the two ablation seasons. The reason is that the PRMS model has many flow paths, storages, and water transfer equations, and a calibrated outflow time series can be right for many wrong reasons. The addition of a detailed knowledge of snow extent and water content constrains the model so that it is a better representation of the actual watershed hydrology. The mechanics of recalibrating PRMS to the ASO measurements will be described, and comparisons in observed versus modeled flow for both a small subbasin and the entire Hetch Hetchy basin will be shown. The recalibrated model provided a bitter fit to the snowmelt recession, a key factor for water managers as they balance declining inflows with demand for power generation and ecosystem releases during the final months of snow melt runoff.

  3. A Bayesian Reformulation of the Extended Drift-Diffusion Model in Perceptual Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fard, Pouyan R.; Park, Hame; Warkentin, Andrej; Kiebel, Stefan J.; Bitzer, Sebastian

    2017-01-01

    Perceptual decision making can be described as a process of accumulating evidence to a bound which has been formalized within drift-diffusion models (DDMs). Recently, an equivalent Bayesian model has been proposed. In contrast to standard DDMs, this Bayesian model directly links information in the stimulus to the decision process. Here, we extend this Bayesian model further and allow inter-trial variability of two parameters following the extended version of the DDM. We derive parameter distributions for the Bayesian model and show that they lead to predictions that are qualitatively equivalent to those made by the extended drift-diffusion model (eDDM). Further, we demonstrate the usefulness of the extended Bayesian model (eBM) for the analysis of concrete behavioral data. Specifically, using Bayesian model selection, we find evidence that including additional inter-trial parameter variability provides for a better model, when the model is constrained by trial-wise stimulus features. This result is remarkable because it was derived using just 200 trials per condition, which is typically thought to be insufficient for identifying variability parameters in DDMs. In sum, we present a Bayesian analysis, which provides for a novel and promising analysis of perceptual decision making experiments. PMID:28553219

  4. A Bayesian Reformulation of the Extended Drift-Diffusion Model in Perceptual Decision Making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pouyan R. Fard

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Perceptual decision making can be described as a process of accumulating evidence to a bound which has been formalized within drift-diffusion models (DDMs. Recently, an equivalent Bayesian model has been proposed. In contrast to standard DDMs, this Bayesian model directly links information in the stimulus to the decision process. Here, we extend this Bayesian model further and allow inter-trial variability of two parameters following the extended version of the DDM. We derive parameter distributions for the Bayesian model and show that they lead to predictions that are qualitatively equivalent to those made by the extended drift-diffusion model (eDDM. Further, we demonstrate the usefulness of the extended Bayesian model (eBM for the analysis of concrete behavioral data. Specifically, using Bayesian model selection, we find evidence that including additional inter-trial parameter variability provides for a better model, when the model is constrained by trial-wise stimulus features. This result is remarkable because it was derived using just 200 trials per condition, which is typically thought to be insufficient for identifying variability parameters in DDMs. In sum, we present a Bayesian analysis, which provides for a novel and promising analysis of perceptual decision making experiments.

  5. GPM Microwave Imager Engineering Model Results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newell, David; Krimchansky, Sergey

    2010-01-01

    The Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Microwave Imager (GMI) Instrument is being developed by Ball Aerospace and Technology Corporation (BATC) for the GPM program at NASA Goddard. The Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission is an international effort managed by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) to improve climate, weather, and hydro-meteorological predictions through more accurate and more frequent precipitation measurements. The GPM Microwave Imager (GMI) will be used to make calibrated, radiometric measurements from space at multiple microwave frequencies and polarizations. GMI will be placed on the GPM Core Spacecraft together with the Dualfrequency Precipitation Radar (DPR). The DPR is two-frequency precipitation measurement radar, which will operate in the Ku-band and Ka-band of the microwave spectrum. The Core Spacecraft will make radiometric and radar measurements of clouds and precipitation and will be the central element ofGPM's space segment. The data products from GPM will provide information concerning global precipitation on a frequent, near-global basis to meteorologists and scientists making weather forecasts and performing research on the global energy and water cycle, precipitation, hydrology, and related disciplines. In addition, radiometric measurements from GMI and radar measurements from the DPR will be used together to develop a retrieval transfer standard for the purpose of calibrating precipitation retrieval algorithms. This calibration standard will establish a reference against which other retrieval algorithms using only microwave radiometers (and without the benefit of the DPR) on other satellites in the GPM constellation will be compared.

  6. Immersive visualization of dynamic CFD model results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Comparato, J.R.; Ringel, K.L.; Heath, D.J.

    2004-01-01

    With immersive visualization the engineer has the means for vividly understanding problem causes and discovering opportunities to improve design. Software can generate an interactive world in which collaborators experience the results of complex mathematical simulations such as computational fluid dynamic (CFD) modeling. Such software, while providing unique benefits over traditional visualization techniques, presents special development challenges. The visualization of large quantities of data interactively requires both significant computational power and shrewd data management. On the computational front, commodity hardware is outperforming large workstations in graphical quality and frame rates. Also, 64-bit commodity computing shows promise in enabling interactive visualization of large datasets. Initial interactive transient visualization methods and examples are presented, as well as development trends in commodity hardware and clustering. Interactive, immersive visualization relies on relevant data being stored in active memory for fast response to user requests. For large or transient datasets, data management becomes a key issue. Techniques for dynamic data loading and data reduction are presented as means to increase visualization performance. (author)

  7. Making Invasion models useful for decision makers; incorporating uncertainty, knowledge gaps, and decision-making preferences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Denys Yemshanov; Frank H Koch; Mark Ducey

    2015-01-01

    Uncertainty is inherent in model-based forecasts of ecological invasions. In this chapter, we explore how the perceptions of that uncertainty can be incorporated into the pest risk assessment process. Uncertainty changes a decision maker’s perceptions of risk; therefore, the direct incorporation of uncertainty may provide a more appropriate depiction of risk. Our...

  8. Linkage of PRA models. Phase 1, Results

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, C.L.; Knudsen, J.K.; Kelly, D.L.

    1995-12-01

    The goal of the Phase I work of the ``Linkage of PRA Models`` project was to postulate methods of providing guidance for US Nuclear Regulator Commission (NRC) personnel on the selection and usage of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) models that are best suited to the analysis they are performing. In particular, methods and associated features are provided for (a) the selection of an appropriate PRA model for a particular analysis, (b) complementary evaluation tools for the analysis, and (c) a PRA model cross-referencing method. As part of this work, three areas adjoining ``linking`` analyses to PRA models were investigated: (a) the PRA models that are currently available, (b) the various types of analyses that are performed within the NRC, and (c) the difficulty in trying to provide a ``generic`` classification scheme to groups plants based upon a particular plant attribute.

  9. Engineering Glass Passivation Layers -Model Results

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Skorski, Daniel C.; Ryan, Joseph V.; Strachan, Denis M.; Lepry, William C.

    2011-08-08

    The immobilization of radioactive waste into glass waste forms is a baseline process of nuclear waste management not only in the United States, but worldwide. The rate of radionuclide release from these glasses is a critical measure of the quality of the waste form. Over long-term tests and using extrapolations of ancient analogues, it has been shown that well designed glasses exhibit a dissolution rate that quickly decreases to a slow residual rate for the lifetime of the glass. The mechanistic cause of this decreased corrosion rate is a subject of debate, with one of the major theories suggesting that the decrease is caused by the formation of corrosion products in such a manner as to present a diffusion barrier on the surface of the glass. Although there is much evidence of this type of mechanism, there has been no attempt to engineer the effect to maximize the passivating qualities of the corrosion products. This study represents the first attempt to engineer the creation of passivating phases on the surface of glasses. Our approach utilizes interactions between the dissolving glass and elements from the disposal environment to create impermeable capping layers. By drawing from other corrosion studies in areas where passivation layers have been successfully engineered to protect the bulk material, we present here a report on mineral phases that are likely have a morphological tendency to encrust the surface of the glass. Our modeling has focused on using the AFCI glass system in a carbonate, sulfate, and phosphate rich environment. We evaluate the minerals predicted to form to determine the likelihood of the formation of a protective layer on the surface of the glass. We have also modeled individual ions in solutions vs. pH and the addition of aluminum and silicon. These results allow us to understand the pH and ion concentration dependence of mineral formation. We have determined that iron minerals are likely to form a complete incrustation layer and we plan

  10. Multi criteria decision making model to increase railway timetable robustness

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jovanović Predrag

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Railway system is one of the most expensive systems of each country, from aspect of construction and of maintenance, as well. On the other hand, it is a necessity, especially in cities and densely populated areas. Accuracy of the railway system is directly related to the stability and robustness of all technological processes in it, including timetable, as one of the most important among them. The aims of this paper is to define the mode of implementation of time reserves in the timetable in order to increase its robustness, as well as the dimensioning the size of those reserves, given the constraints arising from the utilization of railway line capacity. The developed model take into account the various limitations resulting from the technology of railway traffic itself. The model is of algorithmic type step-by-step, and on the basis of that, the place of application of time reserves at observed section of the railway line can be reached, in order to increase the robustness of the timetable.

  11. Modeling and Field Results from Seismic Stimulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Majer, E.; Pride, S.; Lo, W.; Daley, T.; Nakagawa, Seiji; Sposito, Garrison; Roberts, P.

    2006-01-01

    Modeling the effect of seismic stimulation employing Maxwell-Boltzmann theory shows that the important component of stimulation is mechanical rather than fluid pressure effects. Modeling using Biot theory (two phases) shows that the pressure effects diffuse too quickly to be of practical significance. Field data from actual stimulation will be shown to compare to theory

  12. Integrating Open Innovation Platforms in Public Sector Decision Making : Empirical Results from Smart City Research

    OpenAIRE

    Ojasalo, Jukka; Tähtinen, Lassi

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to increase knowledge of integrating an open innovation platform into public sector decision-making processes. Many of the distinctive characteristics of public sector decision-making processes pose a challenge for innovation collaboration with external actors. Often, external actors are not aware of these distinctive characteristics, or they find it very difficult to adapt to them. Particularly SMEs and startups find it difficult to adjust their operation to pu...

  13. Quantification of a decision-making failure probability of the accident management using cognitive analysis model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yoshida, Yoshitaka; Ohtani, Masanori; Fujita, Yushi

    2002-01-01

    In the nuclear power plant, much knowledge is acquired through probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) of a severe accident, and accident management (AM) is prepared. It is necessary to evaluate the effectiveness of AM using the decision-making failure probability of an emergency organization, operation failure probability of operators, success criteria of AM and reliability of AM equipments in PSA. However, there has been no suitable qualification method for PSA so far to obtain the decision-making failure probability, because the decision-making failure of an emergency organization treats the knowledge based error. In this work, we developed a new method for quantification of the decision-making failure probability of an emergency organization using cognitive analysis model, which decided an AM strategy, in a nuclear power plant at the severe accident, and tried to apply it to a typical pressurized water reactor (PWR) plant. As a result: (1) It could quantify the decision-making failure probability adjusted to PSA for general analysts, who do not necessarily possess professional human factors knowledge, by choosing the suitable value of a basic failure probability and an error-factor. (2) The decision-making failure probabilities of six AMs were in the range of 0.23 to 0.41 using the screening evaluation method and in the range of 0.10 to 0.19 using the detailed evaluation method as the result of trial evaluation based on severe accident analysis of a typical PWR plant, and a result of sensitivity analysis of the conservative assumption, failure probability decreased about 50%. (3) The failure probability using the screening evaluation method exceeded that using detailed evaluation method by 99% of probability theoretically, and the failure probability of AM in this study exceeded 100%. From this result, it was shown that the decision-making failure probability was more conservative than the detailed evaluation method, and the screening evaluation method satisfied

  14. Personnel Recovery: Using Game Theory to Model Strategic Decision Making in the Contemporary Operating Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    2005-06-17

    PERSONNEL RECOVERY: USING GAME THEORY TO MODEL STRATEGIC DECISION MAKING IN THE CONTEMPORARY OPERATING ENVIRONMENT A thesis...Personnel Recovery: Using Game Theory to Model Strategic Decision Making in the Contemporary Operating Environment 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER...As a flexible and adaptive strategic decision-making tool, game theory offers a logical way to graphically represent and compare all strategy

  15. Robust Decision-making Applied to Model Selection

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hemez, Francois M. [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2012-08-06

    The scientific and engineering communities are relying more and more on numerical models to simulate ever-increasingly complex phenomena. Selecting a model, from among a family of models that meets the simulation requirements, presents a challenge to modern-day analysts. To address this concern, a framework is adopted anchored in info-gap decision theory. The framework proposes to select models by examining the trade-offs between prediction accuracy and sensitivity to epistemic uncertainty. The framework is demonstrated on two structural engineering applications by asking the following question: Which model, of several numerical models, approximates the behavior of a structure when parameters that define each of those models are unknown? One observation is that models that are nominally more accurate are not necessarily more robust, and their accuracy can deteriorate greatly depending upon the assumptions made. It is posited that, as reliance on numerical models increases, establishing robustness will become as important as demonstrating accuracy.

  16. Accelerated bridge construction (ABC) decision making and economic modeling tool.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-12-01

    In this FHWA-sponsored pool funded study, a set of decision making tools, based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) was developed. This tool set is prepared for transportation specialists and decision-makers to determine if ABC is more effective ...

  17. Decision making model and behavior of Iranian top managers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aliakbar Farhangi

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Aesthetics relates to felt meaning generated from sensory perceptions, and involves subjective,tacit knowledge rooted in feeling and emotion. We believe the aesthetics of management isimportant, but little understood, aspect of organizational life. We propose that followers use theiraesthetic senses in making these assessments.In this article we try to discover the role of aesthetic in management and then try to find out thestyle of about 130 industrial and governmental top managers in Iran using some technique such asquestionnaire and interview. The personality and character of them will be recognized by some testsuch as KAI, MBIT, CPS, Cooper-Smith self-esteem, management style, machiavellism, internaland external control, behavior, attitude and their methods in problem solving and decision making,and the effect of this ability in productivity of their organization.At the end of this study we find out that they are strongly thinking, judging and intuition but half ofthem are extraversion. their personality & character, attitude, skills, professions, perception are soimportant for management and in making a decision more than Two-thirds:-If they make a decision never change it.-Use their aesthetic to judge others and events or found out the right way if it is rational and there isenough evidence.-Uses his experience and knowledge for decision but asks others to suggest a solution or solve theproblem.

  18. Aiding human reliance decision making using computational models of trust

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Maanen, P.P. van; Klos, T.; Dongen, C.J. van

    2007-01-01

    This paper involves a human-agent system in which there is an operator charged with a pattern recognition task, using an automated decision aid. The objective is to make this human-agent system operate as effectively as possible. Effectiveness is gained by an increase of appropriate reliance on the

  19. Computer models used to support cleanup decision-making at hazardous and radioactive waste sites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moskowitz, P.D.; Pardi, R.; DePhillips, M.P.; Meinhold, A.F.

    1992-07-01

    Massive efforts are underway to cleanup hazardous and radioactive waste sites located throughout the US To help determine cleanup priorities, computer models are being used to characterize the source, transport, fate and effects of hazardous chemicals and radioactive materials found at these sites. Although, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the US Department of Energy (DOE), and the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) have provided preliminary guidance to promote the use of computer models for remediation purposes, no Agency has produced directed guidance on models that must be used in these efforts. To identify what models are actually being used to support decision-making at hazardous and radioactive waste sites, a project jointly funded by EPA, DOE and NRC was initiated. The purpose of this project was to: (1) Identify models being used for hazardous and radioactive waste site assessment purposes; and (2) describe and classify these models. This report presents the results of this study

  20. Computer models used to support cleanup decision-making at hazardous and radioactive waste sites

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moskowitz, P.D.; Pardi, R.; DePhillips, M.P.; Meinhold, A.F.

    1992-07-01

    Massive efforts are underway to cleanup hazardous and radioactive waste sites located throughout the US To help determine cleanup priorities, computer models are being used to characterize the source, transport, fate and effects of hazardous chemicals and radioactive materials found at these sites. Although, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the US Department of Energy (DOE), and the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) have provided preliminary guidance to promote the use of computer models for remediation purposes, no Agency has produced directed guidance on models that must be used in these efforts. To identify what models are actually being used to support decision-making at hazardous and radioactive waste sites, a project jointly funded by EPA, DOE and NRC was initiated. The purpose of this project was to: (1) Identify models being used for hazardous and radioactive waste site assessment purposes; and (2) describe and classify these models. This report presents the results of this study.

  1. Modeling Results For the ITER Cryogenic Fore Pump. Final Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pfotenhauer, John M. [University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI (United States); Zhang, Dongsheng [University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI (United States)

    2014-03-31

    A numerical model characterizing the operation of a cryogenic fore-pump (CFP) for ITER has been developed at the University of Wisconsin – Madison during the period from March 15, 2011 through June 30, 2014. The purpose of the ITER-CFP is to separate hydrogen isotopes from helium gas, both making up the exhaust components from the ITER reactor. The model explicitly determines the amount of hydrogen that is captured by the supercritical-helium-cooled pump as a function of the inlet temperature of the supercritical helium, its flow rate, and the inlet conditions of the hydrogen gas flow. Furthermore the model computes the location and amount of hydrogen captured in the pump as a function of time. Throughout the model’s development, and as a calibration check for its results, it has been extensively compared with the measurements of a CFP prototype tested at Oak Ridge National Lab. The results of the model demonstrate that the quantity of captured hydrogen is very sensitive to the inlet temperature of the helium coolant on the outside of the cryopump. Furthermore, the model can be utilized to refine those tests, and suggests methods that could be incorporated in the testing to enhance the usefulness of the measured data.

  2. Modeling of Glass Making Processes for Improved Efficiency

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Thomas P. Seward III

    2003-03-31

    The overall goal of this project was to develop a high-temperature melt properties database with sufficient reliability to allow mathematical modeling of glass melting and forming processes for improved product quality, improved efficiency and lessened environmental impact. It was initiated by the United States glass industry through the NSF Industry/University Center for Glass Research (CGR) at Alfred University [1]. Because of their important commercial value, six different types/families of glass were studied: container, float, fiberglass (E- and wool-types), low-expansion borosilicate, and color TV panel glasses. CGR member companies supplied production-quality glass from all six families upon which we measured, as a function of temperature in the molten state, density, surface tension, viscosity, electrical resistivity, infrared transmittance (to determine high temperature radiative conductivity), non-Newtonian flow behavior, and oxygen partial pres sure. With CGR cost sharing, we also studied gas solubility and diffusivity in each of these glasses. Because knowledge of the compositional dependencies of melt viscosity and electrical resistivity are extremely important for glass melting furnace design and operation, these properties were studied more fully. Composition variations were statistically designed for all six types/families of glass. About 140 different glasses were then melted on a laboratory scale and their viscosity and electrical resistivity measured as a function of temperature. The measurements were completed in February 2003 and are reported on here. The next steps will be (1) to statistically analyze the compositional dependencies of viscosity and electrical resistivity and develop composition-property response surfaces, (2) submit all the data to CGR member companies to evaluate the usefulness in their models, and (3) publish the results in technical journals and most likely in book form.

  3. What makes age diverse teams effective? Results from a six-year research program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wegge, J; Jungmann, F; Liebermann, S; Shemla, M; Ries, B C; Diestel, S; Schmidt, K-H

    2012-01-01

    Based on a new model of productivity in age diverse tams, findings from a six-year research program are reported in which data from more than 745 natural teams with 8,848 employees in three different fields (car production, administrative work, financial services) were collected. Moreover, central assumptions of this model were tested with a representative survey of the German workforce (N = 2,000). Results support both significant advantages and disadvantages for age-mixed teams. Based on the findings, the following preconditions for the effectiveness of age diverse teams are identified: high task complexity, low salience and high appreciation of age diversity, a positive team climate, low age-discrimination, ergonomic design of work places, and the use of age differentiated leadership. Based on these insights, we developed a new training for supervisors, which addresses the aforementioned aspects and seeks to improve team performance and health of team members. It was found that the training reduces age stereotypes, team conflicts and enhances innovation. Thus, we can conclude that effective interventions for a successful integration of elderly employees in work groups are available and that combinations of measures that address ergonomic design issues, team composition and leadership are to be strongly recommended for practice.

  4. Fuzziness and fuzzy modelling in Bulgaria's energy policy decision-making dilemma

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Xingquan

    2006-01-01

    The decision complexity resulting from imprecision in decision variables and parameters, a major difficulty for conventional decision analysis methods, can be relevantly analysed and modelled by fuzzy logic. Bulgaria's nuclear policy decision-making process implicates such complexity of imprecise nature: stakeholders, criteria, measurement, etc. Given the suitable applicability of fuzzy logic in this case, this article tries to offer a concrete fuzzy paradigm including delimitation of decision space, quantification of imprecise variables, and, of course, parameterisation. (author)

  5. Fuzziness and fuzzy modelling in Bulgaria's energy policy decision-making dilemma

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang Xingquan [GREGOR, University Paris I, Pantheon-Sorbonne, Paris (France)]. E-mail: wangxingquan@gmail.com

    2006-07-01

    The decision complexity resulting from imprecision in decision variables and parameters, a major difficulty for conventional decision analysis methods, can be relevantly analysed and modelled by fuzzy logic. Bulgaria's nuclear policy decision-making process implicates such complexity of imprecise nature: stakeholders, criteria, measurement, etc. Given the suitable applicability of fuzzy logic in this case, this article tries to offer a concrete fuzzy paradigm including delimitation of decision space, quantification of imprecise variables, and, of course, parameterisation. (author)

  6. Models in animal collective decision-making: information uncertainty and conflicting preferences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conradt, Larissa

    2012-04-06

    Collective decision-making plays a central part in the lives of many social animals. Two important factors that influence collective decision-making are information uncertainty and conflicting preferences. Here, I bring together, and briefly review, basic models relating to animal collective decision-making in situations with information uncertainty and in situations with conflicting preferences between group members. The intention is to give an overview about the different types of modelling approaches that have been employed and the questions that they address and raise. Despite the use of a wide range of different modelling techniques, results show a coherent picture, as follows. Relatively simple cognitive mechanisms can lead to effective information pooling. Groups often face a trade-off between decision accuracy and speed, but appropriate fine-tuning of behavioural parameters could achieve high accuracy while maintaining reasonable speed. The right balance of interdependence and independence between animals is crucial for maintaining group cohesion and achieving high decision accuracy. In conflict situations, a high degree of decision-sharing between individuals is predicted, as well as transient leadership and leadership according to needs and physiological status. Animals often face crucial trade-offs between maintaining group cohesion and influencing the decision outcome in their own favour. Despite the great progress that has been made, there remains one big gap in our knowledge: how do animals make collective decisions in situations when information uncertainty and conflict of interest operate simultaneously?

  7. Coupled Michigan MHD - Rice Convection Model Results

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Zeeuw, D.; Sazykin, S.; Wolf, D.; Gombosi, T.; Powell, K.

    2002-12-01

    A new high performance Rice Convection Model (RCM) has been coupled to the adaptive-grid Michigan MHD model (BATSRUS). This fully coupled code allows us to self-consistently simulate the physics in the inner and middle magnetosphere. A study will be presented of the basic characteristics of the inner and middle magnetosphere in the context of a single coupled-code run for idealized storm inputs. The analysis will include region-2 currents, shielding of the inner magnetosphere, partial ring currents, pressure distribution, magnetic field inflation, and distribution of pV^gamma.

  8. The Role of Mental Models in Dynamic Decision-Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-03-01

    wholesaler, and the factory to brews and supplies beer to distributor. The object of the game is to minimize inventory and avoid backorder while...dynamic decision-making situations. Fu and Gonzalez (2006) used a simplified supply chain system in a microworld platform called The Beer Game. In...this game, a single retailer supplies beer to the consumer, a single wholesaler supplies beer to the retailer, the distributor supplies beer to the

  9. Evaluating and modelling constructs for e-government decision making

    OpenAIRE

    Sharif, AM; Irani, Z; Weerakkody, V

    2010-01-01

    It is now becoming increasingly well understood that the investment and evaluation of electronic government projects is determinant on a number of organisational, policymaking and decision-making factors, which are determining the success or failure of such endeavours. Given the increasing interest in the manner and methods by which public sector projects are implemented as well as evaluated, this paper attempts to synergise contemporary e-government project management (PM) components and syn...

  10. Graphical interpretation of numerical model results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Drewes, D.R.

    1979-01-01

    Computer software has been developed to produce high quality graphical displays of data from a numerical grid model. The code uses an existing graphical display package (DISSPLA) and overcomes some of the problems of both line-printer output and traditional graphics. The software has been designed to be flexible enough to handle arbitrarily placed computation grids and a variety of display requirements

  11. Does training general practitioners result in more shared decision making during consultations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sanders, A. R. J.; Bensing, J. M.; Essed, M. A. L. U.; Magnee, T.; de Wit, N. J.; Verhaak, P. F. M.

    Objective: We conducted a clustered randomised controlled trial to study the effects of shared decision making (SDM) on patient recovery. This study aims to determine whether GPs trained in SDM and reinforcing patients' treatment expectations showed more trained behaviour during their consultations

  12. Does training general practitioners result in more shared decision making during consultations?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sanders, A R J; Bensing, J M; Essed, M A L U; Magnée, T; de Wit, N J|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/100525393; Verhaak, P F M

    OBJECTIVE: We conducted a clustered randomised controlled trial to study the effects of shared decision making (SDM) on patient recovery. This study aims to determine whether GPs trained in SDM and reinforcing patients' treatment expectations showed more trained behaviour during their consultations

  13. Tinamit: Making coupled system dynamics models accessible to stakeholders

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malard, Julien; Inam Baig, Azhar; Rojas Díaz, Marcela; Hassanzadeh, Elmira; Adamowski, Jan; Tuy, Héctor; Melgar-Quiñonez, Hugo

    2017-04-01

    Model coupling is increasingly used as a method of combining the best of two models when representing socio-environmental systems, though barriers to successful model adoption by stakeholders are particularly present with the use of coupled models, due to their high complexity and typically low implementation flexibility. Coupled system dynamics - physically-based modelling is a promising method to improve stakeholder participation in environmental modelling while retaining a high level of complexity for physical process representation, as the system dynamics components are readily understandable and can be built by stakeholders themselves. However, this method is not without limitations in practice, including 1) inflexible and complicated coupling methods, 2) difficult model maintenance after the end of the project, and 3) a wide variety of end-user cultures and languages. We have developed the open-source Python-language software tool Tinamit to overcome some of these limitations to the adoption of stakeholder-based coupled system dynamics - physically-based modelling. The software is unique in 1) its inclusion of both a graphical user interface (GUI) and a library of available commands (API) that allow users with little or no coding abilities to rapidly, effectively, and flexibly couple models, 2) its multilingual support for the GUI, allowing users to couple models in their preferred language (and to add new languages as necessary for their community work), and 3) its modular structure allowing for very easy model coupling and modification without the direct use of code, and to which programming-savvy users can easily add support for new types of physically-based models. We discuss how the use of Tinamit for model coupling can greatly increase the accessibility of coupled models to stakeholders, using an example of a stakeholder-built system dynamics model of soil salinity issues in Pakistan coupled with the physically-based soil salinity and water flow model

  14. Analysis of traversable pits model to make intelligent wheeled vehicles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Abbasi

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, the issue of passing wheeled vehicles from pits is discussed. The issue is modeled by defining the limits of passing wheeled vehicles. The proposed model has been studied based on changes in the effective parameters. Finally, in order to describe the problem, the proposed model has been solved for wheeled vehicles based on the effective parameters by using one of the numerical methods.

  15. A three-talk model for shared decision making: multistage consultation process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elwyn, Glyn; Durand, Marie Anne; Song, Julia; Aarts, Johanna; Barr, Paul J; Berger, Zackary; Cochran, Nan; Frosch, Dominick; Galasiński, Dariusz; Gulbrandsen, Pål; Han, Paul K J; Härter, Martin; Kinnersley, Paul; Lloyd, Amy; Mishra, Manish; Perestelo-Perez, Lilisbeth; Scholl, Isabelle; Tomori, Kounosuke; Trevena, Lyndal; Witteman, Holly O; Van der Weijden, Trudy

    2017-11-06

    Objectives  To revise an existing three-talk model for learning how to achieve shared decision making, and to consult with relevant stakeholders to update and obtain wider engagement. Design  Multistage consultation process. Setting  Key informant group, communities of interest, and survey of clinical specialties. Participants  19 key informants, 153 member responses from multiple communities of interest, and 316 responses to an online survey from medically qualified clinicians from six specialties. Results  After extended consultation over three iterations, we revised the three-talk model by making changes to one talk category, adding the need to elicit patient goals, providing a clear set of tasks for each talk category, and adding suggested scripts to illustrate each step. A new three-talk model of shared decision making is proposed, based on "team talk," "option talk," and "decision talk," to depict a process of collaboration and deliberation. Team talk places emphasis on the need to provide support to patients when they are made aware of choices, and to elicit their goals as a means of guiding decision making processes. Option talk refers to the task of comparing alternatives, using risk communication principles. Decision talk refers to the task of arriving at decisions that reflect the informed preferences of patients, guided by the experience and expertise of health professionals. Conclusions  The revised three-talk model of shared decision making depicts conversational steps, initiated by providing support when introducing options, followed by strategies to compare and discuss trade-offs, before deliberation based on informed preferences. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  16. Ignalina NPP Safety Analysis: Models and Results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Uspuras, E.

    1999-01-01

    Research directions, linked to safety assessment of the Ignalina NPP, of the scientific safety analysis group are presented: Thermal-hydraulic analysis of accidents and operational transients; Thermal-hydraulic assessment of Ignalina NPP Accident Localization System and other compartments; Structural analysis of plant components, piping and other parts of Main Circulation Circuit; Assessment of RBMK-1500 reactor core and other. Models and main works carried out last year are described. (author)

  17. Modeling clicks beyond the first result page

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chuklin, A.; Serdyukov, P.; de Rijke, M.

    2013-01-01

    Most modern web search engines yield a list of documents of a fixed length (usually 10) in response to a user query. The next ten search results are usually available in one click. These documents either replace the current result page or are appended to the end. Hence, in order to examine more

  18. Integrating modeling, monitoring, and management to reduce critical uncertainties in water resource decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peterson, James T; Freeman, Mary C

    2016-12-01

    Stream ecosystems provide multiple, valued services to society, including water supply, waste assimilation, recreation, and habitat for diverse and productive biological communities. Managers striving to sustain these services in the face of changing climate, land uses, and water demands need tools to assess the potential effectiveness of alternative management actions, and often, the resulting tradeoffs between competing objectives. Integrating predictive modeling with monitoring data in an adaptive management framework provides a process by which managers can reduce model uncertainties and thus improve the scientific bases for subsequent decisions. We demonstrate an integration of monitoring data with a dynamic, metapopulation model developed to assess effects of streamflow alteration on fish occupancy in a southeastern US stream system. Although not extensive (collected over three years at nine sites), the monitoring data allowed us to assess and update support for alternative population dynamic models using model probabilities and Bayes rule. We then use the updated model weights to estimate the effects of water withdrawal on stream fish communities and demonstrate how feedback in the form of monitoring data can be used to improve water resource decision making. We conclude that investment in more strategic monitoring, guided by a priori model predictions under alternative hypotheses and an adaptive sampling design, could substantially improve the information available to guide decision-making and management for ecosystem services from lotic systems. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  19. Multi-Criteria Decision Making For Determining A Simple Model of Supplier Selection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harwati

    2017-06-01

    Supplier selection is a decision with many criteria. Supplier selection model usually involves more than five main criteria and more than 10 sub-criteria. In fact many model includes more than 20 criteria. Too many criteria involved in supplier selection models sometimes make it difficult to apply in many companies. This research focuses on designing supplier selection that easy and simple to be applied in the company. Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) is used to weighting criteria. The analysis results there are four criteria that are easy and simple can be used to select suppliers: Price (weight 0.4) shipment (weight 0.3), quality (weight 0.2) and services (weight 0.1). A real case simulation shows that simple model provides the same decision with a more complex model.

  20. Consumer decision-making models within the discipline of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    models provide the possibility to understand different consumer decision processes and marketing strate- gies and that models play an important part in the es- tablishment of theory (Engel et al, ..... ated by meaning, deliberation of consequences of various alternatives and formation of intentions (Du. Plessis et al, 1991:21; ...

  1. Modeling Conflict And Exchange In Collective Decision Making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stokman, Frans N.

    1995-01-01

    Two dynamic models of collecuve decision maklng are Introduced and lllustrated wlth a simple example. A more extensive presentation and appllcauon concerning the European Community can be found In Bueno de Mesqulta and Stokman (19941. The two dynamlc models reflect two alternative views of

  2. Design and Implementation of a General Decision-Making Model in RoboCup Simulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Changda Wang

    2004-09-01

    Full Text Available The study of the collaboration, coordination and negotiation among different agents in a multi-agent system (MAS has always been the most challenging yet popular in the research of distributed artificial intelligence. In this paper, we will suggest for RoboCup simulation, a typical MAS, a general decision-making model, rather than define a different algorithm for each tactic (e.g. ball handling, pass, shoot and interception, etc. in soccer games as most RoboCup simulation teams did. The general decision-making model is based on two critical factors in soccer games: the vertical distance to the goal line and the visual angle for the goalpost. We have used these two parameters to formalize the defensive and offensive decisions in RoboCup simulation and the results mentioned above had been applied in NOVAURO®, original name is UJDB, a RoboCup simulation team of Jiangsu University, whose decision-making model, compared with that of Tsinghua University, the world champion team in 2001, is a universal model and easier to be implemented.

  3. Extended warranties, maintenance service and lease contracts modeling and analysis for decision-making

    CERN Document Server

    Murthy, D N Prabhakar

    2014-01-01

    Serving to unify the existing literature on extended warranties, maintenance service contracts and lease contracts, this book also presents a unique perspective on the topic focussed on cost analysis and decision-making from the perspectives of the parties involved. Using a game theoretic approach together with mathematical modelling, results are presented in an integrated manner with key topics that require further research highlighted in order to serve as a starting point for researchers (engineers and statisticians) who are interested in doing further work in these areas. Designed to assist practitioners (managers, engineers, applied statisticians) who are involved with extended warranties, maintenance service contracts and lease contracts, the book provides them with the models and techniques needed for proper cost analysis and effective decision-making. The book is also suitable for use as a reference text in industrial engineering, applied statistics, operations research and management.

  4. DEVELOPMENT OF AHP BASED MODEL FOR DECISION MAKING ON E-LEARNING IMPLEMENTATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nina Begičević

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available Strategic planning of e-learning implementation includes decision making about the most suitable form of implementing e-learning on different levels. Decision making about e-learning implementation has been covered as consisting of four phases: (1 intelligence, (2 design, (3 choice and (4 implementation. During the Intelligence phase we have precisely identified our central decision problem and have conducted situation analysis. In the Design phase we have developed alternatives and established criteria and subcriteria. Then, we have created the questionnaire about the importance of the advantages and goals of e-learning implementation and about criteria and subcriteria essential for decision making. The survey has been conducted on the sample of 90 elearning experts in Croatia. Further, we connected these findings with the results of the factor analysis which was performed on the complete survey. The results of the factor analysis have served as input in the multicriteria decision model (AHP that we have developed in the Choice phase. The AHP model will be presented in the article and qualitative and quantitative evaluation of the model will be indicated.

  5. New models for decision making in moral theology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lauer, E F

    1986-01-01

    The way that the Christian tradition faces moral issues is being reshaped. Rather than focusing solely on Scripture and tradition as the basis for resolving ethical issues, decision makers should investigate human experience as well, some contemporary theologians recommend. In contrast to a traditional notion of natural law, which analyzes "human nature," the revisionist approach analyzes human experiences to discover what is authentic in them. This process looks not only at the physical structure of an act but also at its intentionality and its effect on the parties involved. Absolute material norms do not exist, according to the revisionist school. Instead one must examine an act's effects on a person's relationship to God, to others, to the physical world, and to oneself to determine whether it is morally right or wrong. Although this theological trend could be disconcerting to those who serve on ethics committees--since it does not rely on clear-cut rules--and may make decision making more difficult, its value lies in its potential to bring Christians closer to a divine understanding of reality.

  6. Fuzzy Multiple Criteria Decision Making Model with Fuzzy Time Weight Scheme

    OpenAIRE

    Chin-Yao Low; Sung-Nung Lin

    2013-01-01

    In this study, we purpose a common fuzzy multiple criteria decision making model. A brand new concept - fuzzy time weighted scheme is adopted for considering in the model to establish a fuzzy multiple criteria decision making with time weight (FMCDMTW) model. A real case of fuzzy multiple criteria decision making (FMCDM) problems to be considering in this study. The performance evaluation of auction websites based on all criteria proposed in related literature. Obviously, the problem under in...

  7. Neural mechanisms regulating different forms of risk-related decision-making: Insights from animal models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orsini, Caitlin A; Moorman, David E; Young, Jared W; Setlow, Barry; Floresco, Stan B

    2015-11-01

    Over the past 20 years there has been a growing interest in the neural underpinnings of cost/benefit decision-making. Recent studies with animal models have made considerable advances in our understanding of how different prefrontal, striatal, limbic and monoaminergic circuits interact to promote efficient risk/reward decision-making, and how dysfunction in these circuits underlies aberrant decision-making observed in numerous psychiatric disorders. This review will highlight recent findings from studies exploring these questions using a variety of behavioral assays, as well as molecular, pharmacological, neurophysiological, and translational approaches. We begin with a discussion of how neural systems related to decision subcomponents may interact to generate more complex decisions involving risk and uncertainty. This is followed by an overview of interactions between prefrontal-amygdala-dopamine and habenular circuits in regulating choice between certain and uncertain rewards and how different modes of dopamine transmission may contribute to these processes. These data will be compared with results from other studies investigating the contribution of some of these systems to guiding decision-making related to rewards vs. punishment. Lastly, we provide a brief summary of impairments in risk-related decision-making associated with psychiatric disorders, highlighting recent translational studies in laboratory animals. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. A Model of Supervisor Decision-Making in the Accommodation of Workers with Low Back Pain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams-Whitt, Kelly; Kristman, Vicki; Shaw, William S; Soklaridis, Sophie; Reguly, Paula

    2016-09-01

    Purpose To explore supervisors' perspectives and decision-making processes in the accommodation of back injured workers. Methods Twenty-three semi-structured, in-depth interviews were conducted with supervisors from eleven Canadian organizations about their role in providing job accommodations. Supervisors were identified through an on-line survey and interviews were recorded, transcribed and entered into NVivo software. The initial analyses identified common units of meaning, which were used to develop a coding guide. Interviews were coded, and a model of supervisor decision-making was developed based on the themes, categories and connecting ideas identified in the data. Results The decision-making model includes a process element that is described as iterative "trial and error" decision-making. Medical restrictions are compared to job demands, employee abilities and available alternatives. A feasible modification is identified through brainstorming and then implemented by the supervisor. Resources used for brainstorming include information, supervisor experience and autonomy, and organizational supports. The model also incorporates the experience of accommodation as a job demand that causes strain for the supervisor. Accommodation demands affect the supervisor's attitude, brainstorming and monitoring effort, and communication with returning employees. Resources and demands have a combined effect on accommodation decision complexity, which in turn affects the quality of the accommodation option selected. If the employee is unable to complete the tasks or is reinjured during the accommodation, the decision cycle repeats. More frequent iteration through the trial and error process reduces the likelihood of return to work success. Conclusion A series of propositions is developed to illustrate the relationships among categories in the model. The model and propositions show: (a) the iterative, problem solving nature of the RTW process; (b) decision resources necessary

  9. Microplasticity of MMC. Experimental results and modelling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maire, E. (Groupe d' Etude de Metallurgie Physique et de Physique des Materiaux, INSA, 69 Villeurbanne (France)); Lormand, G. (Groupe d' Etude de Metallurgie Physique et de Physique des Materiaux, INSA, 69 Villeurbanne (France)); Gobin, P.F. (Groupe d' Etude de Metallurgie Physique et de Physique des Materiaux, INSA, 69 Villeurbanne (France)); Fougeres, R. (Groupe d' Etude de Metallurgie Physique et de Physique des Materiaux, INSA, 69 Villeurbanne (France))

    1993-11-01

    The microplastic behavior of several MMC is investigated by means of tension and compression tests. This behavior is assymetric : the proportional limit is higher in tension than in compression but the work hardening rate is higher in compression. These differences are analysed in terms of maxium of the Tresca's shear stress at the interface (proportional limit) and of the emission of dislocation loops during the cooling (work hardening rate). On another hand, a model is proposed to calculate the value of the yield stress, describing the composite as a material composed of three phases : inclusion, unaffected matrix and matrix surrounding the inclusion having a gradient in the density of the thermally induced dilocations. (orig.).

  10. Consensual decision-making model based on game theory for LNG processes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Castillo, Luis; Dorao, Carlos A.

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► A Decision Making (DM) approach for LNG projects based on game theory is presented. ► DM framework was tested with two different cases, using analytical models and a simple LNG process. ► The problems were solved by using a Genetic Algorithm (GA) binary coding and Nash-GA. ► Integrated models from the design and optimization of the process could result in more realistic outcome. ► The major challenge in such a framework is related to the uncertainties in the market models. - Abstract: Decision-Making (DM) in LNG projects is a quite complex process due to the number of actors, approval phases, large investments and capital return in the long time. Furthermore, due to the very high investment of a LNG project, a detailed and efficient DM process is required in order to minimize risks. In this work a Decision-Making (DM) approach for LNG projects is presented. The approach is based on a consensus algorithm to address the consensus output over a common value using cost functions within a framework based on game theory. The DM framework was tested with two different cases. The first case was used for evaluating the performance of the framework with analytical models, while the second case corresponds to a simple LNG process. The problems were solved by using a Genetic Algorithm (GA) binary coding and Nash-GA. The results of the DM framework in the LNG project indicate that considering an integrated DM model and including the markets role from the design and optimization of the process more realistic outcome could be obtained. However, the major challenge in such a framework is related to the uncertainties in the market models.

  11. Characteristic times in the English Channel from numerical modelling: supporting decision-making

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Perianez, R [Departamento de Fisica Aplicada 1, Universidad de Sevilla, EUITA, Carretera Utrera km 1, 41013 Sevilla (Spain); Miro, C [Departamento de Fisica Aplicada, Facultad de Veterinaria, Universidad de Extremadura, Avenida de la Universidad s/n, 10071 Caceres (Spain)], E-mail: rperianez@us.es, E-mail: cmiro@unex.es

    2009-06-15

    A numerical model that simulates the dispersion of radionuclides in the English Channel has been applied to study the dispersion of conservative and non-conservative radionuclides released from the La Hague nuclear fuel reprocessing plant. The model is based upon previous work and now is able to simulate dispersion over long timescales (decades), explicitly including transport by instantaneous tidal currents and variable wind conditions. Wind conditions are obtained from meteorological statistics using a stochastic method. Outputs from the model are treated using time-series analysis techniques. These techniques allow the determination of characteristic times of the system, transport velocities and dispersion factors. This information may be very useful to support the decision-making process after an emergency situation. Thus, we are proposing that time-series analysis can be integrated with numerical modelling for helping decision-making in response to an accident. The model is first validated through its application to actual releases of {sup 99}Tc and {sup 125}Sb, comparing measured and computed concentrations, and characteristic times for three radionuclides are given next: a perfectly conservative one, a very reactive one ({sup 239,240}Pu) and {sup 137}Cs, which has an intermediate behaviour. Characteristic transport velocities and dispersion factors have been calculated as well. Model results are supported by experimental evidence.

  12. Global analysis of dynamical decision-making models through local computation around the hidden saddle.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laura Trotta

    Full Text Available Bistable dynamical switches are frequently encountered in mathematical modeling of biological systems because binary decisions are at the core of many cellular processes. Bistable switches present two stable steady-states, each of them corresponding to a distinct decision. In response to a transient signal, the system can flip back and forth between these two stable steady-states, switching between both decisions. Understanding which parameters and states affect this switch between stable states may shed light on the mechanisms underlying the decision-making process. Yet, answering such a question involves analyzing the global dynamical (i.e., transient behavior of a nonlinear, possibly high dimensional model. In this paper, we show how a local analysis at a particular equilibrium point of bistable systems is highly relevant to understand the global properties of the switching system. The local analysis is performed at the saddle point, an often disregarded equilibrium point of bistable models but which is shown to be a key ruler of the decision-making process. Results are illustrated on three previously published models of biological switches: two models of apoptosis, the programmed cell death and one model of long-term potentiation, a phenomenon underlying synaptic plasticity.

  13. Teachers Making Sense of Result-Oriented Teams: A Cognitive Anthropological Approach to Educational Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wierenga, Sijko J.; Kamsteeg, Frans H.; Simons, P. Robert Jan; Veenswijk, Marcel

    2015-01-01

    Studies on educational change efforts abound but generally limit themselves to post hoc explanations of failure and success. Such explanations are rarely turned into attempts at providing models for predicting change outcomes. The present study tries to develop such a model based on the teachers' impact analysis of a management-driven…

  14. Lack of shared decision making in cancer screening discussions: results from a national survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoffman, Richard M; Elmore, Joann G; Fairfield, Kathleen M; Gerstein, Bethany S; Levin, Carrie A; Pignone, Michael P

    2014-09-01

    Clinicians are encouraged to support patients in achieving shared decision making (SDM) for cancer screening. To describe decision making processes and outcomes for cancer screening discussions. A 2011 national Internet survey of adults aged ≥50 years who made cancer screening decisions (breast, BrCa; colorectal, CRC; prostate, PCa) within the previous 2 years was conducted. Participants were asked about their perceived cancer risk; how informed they felt about cancer tests; whether their healthcare provider addressed pros/cons of testing, presented the option of no testing, and elicited their input; whether they were tested; and their confidence in the screening decision. Data were analyzed in 2013-2014 with descriptive statistics and logistic regression. Overall, 1,134 participants (477 men, 657 women) aged ≥50 years made cancer screening decisions, and 1,098 (354, BrCa; 598, CRC; 146, PCa) decisions were discussed with a healthcare provider. Most discussions (51%-67%) addressed pros of screening some or a lot, but few (7%-14%) similarly addressed cons. For all cancer screening decisions, providers usually (63%-71%) explained that testing was optional, but less often asked women (43%-57%) than men (70%-71%) whether they wanted testing. Only 27%-38% of participants reported SDM, 69%-93% underwent screening, and 55%-76% would definitely make the same decision again. Perceived high/average cancer risk and feeling highly informed were associated with confidence in the screening decision. Discussions often failed to provide balanced information and meet SDM criteria. Supporting SDM could potentially improve the quality of cancer screening decisions. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  15. Meaning-making and psychological adjustment to cancer: development of an intervention and pilot results.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Virgina; Cohen, S Robin; Edgar, Linda; Laizner, Andrea M; Gagnon, Anita J

    2006-11-03

    To develop an intervention that uniquely addresses the existential impact of cancer through meaning-making coping strategies and to explore the intervention's impact on psychological adjustment. Descriptive, qualitative approach to develop the intervention; one-group pre- and post-test design to pilot test the intervention. Patients' homes or ambulatory oncology clinics affiliated with a university health center in eastern Canada. 18 participants who were newly diagnosed in the past three months (n = 14), had completed treatment (n = 1), or were facing recurrence (n = 3) of breast (n = 10) or colorectal (n = 8) cancer. Data were collected during interviews using a prototype intervention for trauma patients, and content was analyzed on an ongoing basis to fit the needs of the cancer population. Pretest and post-test questionnaires were administered to determine the intervention's effect. Meaning-making intervention (MMI), patients' background variables, disease- or treatment-related symptoms, and psychological adjustment. The MMI for patients with cancer consisted of as many as four two-hour, individualized sessions and involved the acknowledgment of losses and life threat, the examination of critical past challenges, and plans to stay committed to life goals. At post-test, participants significantly improved in self-esteem and reported a greater sense of security in facing the uncertainty of cancer. Findings suggest that meaning-making coping can be facilitated and lead to positive psychological outcomes following a cancer diagnosis. The MMI offers a potentially effective and structured approach to address and monitor cancer-related existential issues. Findings are useful for designing future randomized, controlled trials.

  16. Economic decision making and the application of nonparametric prediction models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Attanasi, E.D.; Coburn, T.C.; Freeman, P.A.

    2008-01-01

    Sustained increases in energy prices have focused attention on gas resources in low-permeability shale or in coals that were previously considered economically marginal. Daily well deliverability is often relatively small, although the estimates of the total volumes of recoverable resources in these settings are often large. Planning and development decisions for extraction of such resources must be areawide because profitable extraction requires optimization of scale economies to minimize costs and reduce risk. For an individual firm, the decision to enter such plays depends on reconnaissance-level estimates of regional recoverable resources and on cost estimates to develop untested areas. This paper shows how simple nonparametric local regression models, used to predict technically recoverable resources at untested sites, can be combined with economic models to compute regional-scale cost functions. The context of the worked example is the Devonian Antrim-shale gas play in the Michigan basin. One finding relates to selection of the resource prediction model to be used with economic models. Models chosen because they can best predict aggregate volume over larger areas (many hundreds of sites) smooth out granularity in the distribution of predicted volumes at individual sites. This loss of detail affects the representation of economic cost functions and may affect economic decisions. Second, because some analysts consider unconventional resources to be ubiquitous, the selection and order of specific drilling sites may, in practice, be determined arbitrarily by extraneous factors. The analysis shows a 15-20% gain in gas volume when these simple models are applied to order drilling prospects strategically rather than to choose drilling locations randomly. Copyright ?? 2008 Society of Petroleum Engineers.

  17. Modeling and Simulation for Enterprise Decision-Making: Successful Projects and Approaches

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ramadan, Noha; Ajami, Racha; Mohamed, Nader

    2015-01-01

    Decision-making in enterprises holds different possibilities for profits and risks. Due to the complexity of decision making processes, modeling and simulation tools are being used to facilitate them and minimize the risk of making wrong decisions in the various business process phases. In this p...

  18. Judgment and Decision Making in Outdoor Adventure Leadership: A Dual-Process Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Culp, Clinton A.

    2016-01-01

    From an examination of the current textbooks and literature concerning judgment and decision-making models used in outdoor adventure leadership, it is easy to see that they are still deeply rooted in the classical decision-making theory. In this article, I will (a) outline the importance of good judgment and decision making in an outdoor adventure…

  19. Modeling and Simulation for Enterprise Decision-Making: Successful Projects and Approaches

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ramadan, Noha; Ajami, Racha; Mohamed, Nader

    Decision-making in enterprises holds different possibilities for profits and risks. Due to the complexity of decision making processes, modeling and simulation tools are being used to facilitate them and minimize the risk of making wrong decisions in the various business process phases. In this p...

  20. Modeling human decision making behavior in supervisory control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tulga, M. K.; Sheridan, T. B.

    1977-01-01

    An optimal decision control model was developed, which is based primarily on a dynamic programming algorithm which looks at all the available task possibilities, charts an optimal trajectory, and commits itself to do the first step (i.e., follow the optimal trajectory during the next time period), and then iterates the calculation. A Bayesian estimator was included which estimates the tasks which might occur in the immediate future and provides this information to the dynamic programming routine. Preliminary trials comparing the human subject's performance to that of the optimal model show a great similarity, but indicate that the human skips certain movements which require quick change in strategy.

  1. Making Risk Models Operational for Situational Awareness and Decision Support

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paulson, P.R.; Coles, G.; Shoemaker, S.

    2012-01-01

    We present CARIM, a decision support tool to aid in the evaluation of plans for converting control systems to digital instruments. The model provides the capability to optimize planning and resource allocation to reduce risk from multiple safety and economic perspectives. (author)

  2. Modeling decision making and control in manufacturing simulation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Zee, D.J.

    A significant shortcoming of traditional simulation languages is the lack of attention paid to the modeling of control structures, i.e., the humans or systems responsible for manufacturing planning and control, their activities and the mutual tuning of their activities. Mostly they are hard coded

  3. Mathematical Modeling, Sense Making, and the Common Core State Standards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schoenfeld, Alan H.

    2013-01-01

    On October 14, 2013 the Mathematics Education Department at Teachers College hosted a full-day conference focused on the Common Core Standards Mathematical Modeling requirements to be implemented in September 2014 and in honor of Professor Henry Pollak's 25 years of service to the school. This article is adapted from my talk at this conference…

  4. Models of governance in multihospital systems. Implications for hospital and system-level decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morlock, L L; Alexander, J A

    1986-12-01

    This study utilizes data from a national survey of 159 multihospital systems in order to describe the types of governance structures currently being utilized, and to compare the policy making process for various types of decisions in systems with different approaches to governance. Survey results indicate that multihospital systems most often use one of three governance models. Forty-one percent of the systems (including 33% of system hospitals) use a parent holding company model in which there is a system-wide corporate governing board and separate governing boards for each member hospital. Twenty-two percent of systems in the sample (but 47% of all system hospitals) utilize what we have termed a modified parent holding company model in which there is one system-wide governing board, but advisory boards are substituted for governing boards at the local hospital level. Twenty-three percent of the sampled systems (including 11% of system hospitals) use a corporate model in which there is one system-wide governing board but no other governing or advisory boards at either the divisional, regional or local hospital levels. A comparison of systems using these three governance approaches found significant variation in terms of system size, ownership and the geographic proximity of member hospitals. In order to examine the relationship between alternative approaches to governance and patterns of decision-making, the three model types were compared with respect to the percentages of systems reporting that local boards, corporate management and/or system-wide corporate boards have responsibility for decision-making in a number of specific issue areas. Study results indicate that, regardless of model type, corporate boards are most likely to have responsibility for decisions regarding the transfer, pledging and sale of assets; the formation of new companies; purchase of assets greater than $100,000; changes in hospital bylaws; and the appointment of local board members. In

  5. A Dynamic Bayesian Model for Characterizing Cross-Neuronal Interactions During Decision-Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Bo; Moorman, David E; Behseta, Sam; Ombao, Hernando; Shahbaba, Babak

    2016-01-01

    The goal of this paper is to develop a novel statistical model for studying cross-neuronal spike train interactions during decision making. For an individual to successfully complete the task of decision-making, a number of temporally-organized events must occur: stimuli must be detected, potential outcomes must be evaluated, behaviors must be executed or inhibited, and outcomes (such as reward or no-reward) must be experienced. Due to the complexity of this process, it is likely the case that decision-making is encoded by the temporally-precise interactions between large populations of neurons. Most existing statistical models, however, are inadequate for analyzing such a phenomenon because they provide only an aggregated measure of interactions over time. To address this considerable limitation, we propose a dynamic Bayesian model which captures the time-varying nature of neuronal activity (such as the time-varying strength of the interactions between neurons). The proposed method yielded results that reveal new insight into the dynamic nature of population coding in the prefrontal cortex during decision making. In our analysis, we note that while some neurons in the prefrontal cortex do not synchronize their firing activity until the presence of a reward, a different set of neurons synchronize their activity shortly after stimulus onset. These differentially synchronizing sub-populations of neurons suggests a continuum of population representation of the reward-seeking task. Secondly, our analyses also suggest that the degree of synchronization differs between the rewarded and non-rewarded conditions. Moreover, the proposed model is scalable to handle data on many simultaneously-recorded neurons and is applicable to analyzing other types of multivariate time series data with latent structure. Supplementary materials (including computer codes) for our paper are available online.

  6. How to: understanding SWAT model uncertainty relative to measured results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watershed models are being relied upon to contribute to most policy-making decisions of watershed management, and the demand for an accurate accounting of complete model uncertainty is rising. Generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) is a widely used method for quantifying uncertainty i...

  7. MODELING WITH DEAF STUDENTS: HANDS THAT MAKE, HANDS THAT SPEAK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristiane Figueredo

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available This article aims to describe the activities developed during the extension project of the Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina (UFSC, entitled "Modeling for Deaf Students', carried out from July to December 2006. The project has the support of Pró-Reitoria de Pesquisa e Extensão da UFSC (PRPE-UFSC and was executed with the intent to conduct free workshops for deaf students from various institutions of the region of Florianópolis (SC, covering techniques of modeling (on paper and clay to instigate and develop the creativity, manual skills and concentration of the students. Moreover, it was also sought explore these activities as a form of recreation and also of providing a new source of income for the students.

  8. Utility Function for modeling Group Multicriteria Decision Making problems as games

    OpenAIRE

    Alexandre Bevilacqua Leoneti

    2016-01-01

    To assist in the decision making process, several multicriteria methods have been proposed. However, the existing methods assume a single decision-maker and do not consider decision under risk, which is better addressed by Game Theory. Hence, the aim of this research is to propose a Utility Function that makes it possible to model Group Multicriteria Decision Making problems as games. The advantage of using Game Theory for solving Group Multicriteria Decision Making problems is to evaluate th...

  9. A model for amalgamation in group decision making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cutello, Vincenzo; Montero, Javier

    1992-01-01

    In this paper we present a generalization of the model proposed by Montero, by allowing non-complete fuzzy binary relations for individuals. A degree of unsatisfaction can be defined in this case, suggesting that any democratic aggregation rule should take into account not only ethical conditions or some degree of rationality in the amalgamating procedure, but also a minimum support for the set of alternatives subject to the group analysis.

  10. Early diagnosis model for meningitis supports public health decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Close, Rebecca M; Ejidokun, Oluwatoyin O; Verlander, Neville Q; Fraser, Graham; Meltzer, Margie; Rehman, Yasmin; Muir, Peter; Ninis, Nelly; Stuart, James M

    2011-07-01

    To develop a predictive model for rapid differential diagnosis of meningitis and meningococcal septicaemia to support public health decisions on chemoprophylaxis for contacts. Prospective study of suspected cases of acute meningitis and meningococcal septicaemia admitted to hospitals in the South West, West Midlands and London Regions of England from July 2008 to June 2009. Epidemiological, clinical and laboratory variables on admission were recorded. Logistic regression was used to derive a predictive model. Of the 719 suspect cases reported, 385 confirmed cases were included in analysis. Peripheral blood polymorphonuclear count of >16 × 10(9)/l, serum C-reactive protein of >100 mg/l and haemorrhagic rash were strongly and independently associated with diagnosis of bacterial meningitis and meningococcal septicaemia. Using a simple scoring system, the presence of any one of these factors gave a probability of >95% in predicting the final diagnosis. We have developed a model using laboratory and clinical factors, but not dependent on availability of CSF, for differentiating acute bacterial from viral meningitis within a few hours of admission to hospital. This scoring system is recommended in public health management of suspected cases of meningitis and meningococcal septicaemia to inform decisions on chemoprophylaxis. Copyright © 2011 The British Infection Association. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. A novel sustainable decision making model for municipal solid waste management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hung, M.-L.; Ma Hwongwen; Yang, W.-F.

    2007-01-01

    This paper reviews several models developed to support decision making in municipal solid waste management (MSWM). The concepts underlying sustainable MSWM models can be divided into two categories: one incorporates social factors into decision making methods, and the other includes public participation in the decision-making process. The public is only apprised or takes part in discussion, and has little effect on decision making in most research efforts. Few studies have considered public participation in the decision-making process, and the methods have sought to strike a compromise between concerned criteria, not between stakeholders. However, the source of the conflict arises from the stakeholders' complex web of value. Such conflict affects the feasibility of implementing any decision. The purpose of this study is to develop a sustainable decision making model for MSWM to overcome these shortcomings. The proposed model combines multicriteria decision making (MCDM) and a consensus analysis model (CAM). The CAM is built up to aid in decision-making when MCDM methods are utilized and, subsequently, a novel sustainable decision making model for MSWM is developed. The main feature of CAM is the assessment of the degree of consensus between stakeholders for particular alternatives. A case study for food waste management in Taiwan is presented to demonstrate the practicality of this model

  12. How do People Make Sense of Unfamiliar Visualizations?: A Grounded Model of Novice's Information Visualization Sensemaking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Sukwon; Kim, Sung-Hee; Hung, Ya-Hsin; Lam, Heidi; Kang, Youn-ah; Yi, Ji Soo

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, we would like to investigate how people make sense of unfamiliar information visualizations. In order to achieve the research goal, we conducted a qualitative study by observing 13 participants when they endeavored to make sense of three unfamiliar visualizations (i.e., a parallel-coordinates plot, a chord diagram, and a treemap) that they encountered for the first time. We collected data including audio/video record of think-aloud sessions and semi-structured interview; and analyzed the data using the grounded theory method. The primary result of this study is a grounded model of NOvice's information Vlsualization Sensemaking (NOVIS model), which consists of the five major cognitive activities: 1 encountering visualization, 2 constructing a frame, 3 exploring visualization, 4 questioning the frame, and 5 floundering on visualization. We introduce the NOVIS model by explaining the five activities with representative quotes from our participants. We also explore the dynamics in the model. Lastly, we compare with other existing models and share further research directions that arose from our observations.

  13. Multi-criteria model to support decision-making for the remediation of urban areas

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    De Luca, Christiano; Lopes, Ricardo T., E-mail: christiano_luca@hotmail.com, E-mail: ricardo@lin.ufrj.br [Coordenacao dos Programas de Pos-Graduacao em Engenharia (COPPE/UFRJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Programa de Engenharia Nuclear; Rochedo, Elaine R.R., E-mail: elainerochedo@gmail.com [Instituto de Radioprotecao e Dosimetria (IRD/CNEN-RJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Silva, Diogo N.G.; Guimaraes, Jean R.D., E-mail: diogons@gmail.com, E-mail: jeanrdg@biof.ufrj.br [Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ), RJ (Brazil). Instituto de Biofisica Carlos Chagas Filho; Rochedo, Pedro R.R., E-mail: rochedopedro@gmail.com [Coordenacao dos Programas de Pos-Graduacao em Engenharia (COPPE/UFRJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Programa de de Planejamento Energetico; Wasserman, Maria Angelica V., E-mail: mwasserman@ien.gov.br [Instituto de Engenharia Nuclear (IEN/CNEN-RJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2015-07-01

    Under the environmental modeling Project of radioecology research area of IRD (CNEN), several tools have been developed to support post-emergency activities. Currently, a multi-criteria model is in development with the aim of supporting decision-making processes under the radiological protection point of view. At this stage, we are focusing on the decontamination of urban areas. The model includes five calculation modules: (1) averted doses to the public due to remediation procedures; (2) occupational exposure of remediation workers; (3) properties of the wastes generated by a remediation procedure; (4) classification of each procedure for a specific urban scenario based on previously calculated quantities; and, (5) multi-criteria rank calculation. The classification of procedures is based on two types of criteria previously defined, both also included as input data of the model. The first type, called Subjective Criteria, is based on experts' opinions collected through questionnaires. The second type, called Technical Criteria, is calculated according to the outputs of the three first modules of the program. The output of the model is a rank order list indicating the priority of procedures to use for each different type of urban environment. The use of results based on criteria and methods developed previously to the occurrence of a contamination event intends not only to provide an input to decision-making processes but also to improve public confidence on authorities responsible for the remediation decisions. (author)

  14. Multi-criteria model to support decision-making for the remediation of urban areas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Luca, Christiano; Lopes, Ricardo T.; Silva, Diogo N.G.; Guimaraes, Jean R.D.

    2015-01-01

    Under the environmental modeling Project of radioecology research area of IRD (CNEN), several tools have been developed to support post-emergency activities. Currently, a multi-criteria model is in development with the aim of supporting decision-making processes under the radiological protection point of view. At this stage, we are focusing on the decontamination of urban areas. The model includes five calculation modules: (1) averted doses to the public due to remediation procedures; (2) occupational exposure of remediation workers; (3) properties of the wastes generated by a remediation procedure; (4) classification of each procedure for a specific urban scenario based on previously calculated quantities; and, (5) multi-criteria rank calculation. The classification of procedures is based on two types of criteria previously defined, both also included as input data of the model. The first type, called Subjective Criteria, is based on experts' opinions collected through questionnaires. The second type, called Technical Criteria, is calculated according to the outputs of the three first modules of the program. The output of the model is a rank order list indicating the priority of procedures to use for each different type of urban environment. The use of results based on criteria and methods developed previously to the occurrence of a contamination event intends not only to provide an input to decision-making processes but also to improve public confidence on authorities responsible for the remediation decisions. (author)

  15. Enabling Integrated Decision Making for Electronic-Commerce by Modelling an Enterprise's Sharable Knowledge.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Henry M.

    2000-01-01

    An enterprise model, a computational model of knowledge about an enterprise, is a useful tool for integrated decision-making by e-commerce suppliers and customers. Sharable knowledge, once represented in an enterprise model, can be integrated by the modeled enterprise's e-commerce partners. Presents background on enterprise modeling, followed by…

  16. What Makes Hydrologic Models Differ? Using SUMMA to Systematically Explore Model Uncertainty and Error

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bennett, A.; Nijssen, B.; Chegwidden, O.; Wood, A.; Clark, M. P.

    2017-12-01

    Model intercomparison experiments have been conducted to quantify the variability introduced during the model development process, but have had limited success in identifying the sources of this model variability. The Structure for Unifying Multiple Modeling Alternatives (SUMMA) has been developed as a framework which defines a general set of conservation equations for mass and energy as well as a common core of numerical solvers along with the ability to set options for choosing between different spatial discretizations and flux parameterizations. SUMMA can be thought of as a framework for implementing meta-models which allows for the investigation of the impacts of decisions made during the model development process. Through this flexibility we develop a hierarchy of definitions which allows for models to be compared to one another. This vocabulary allows us to define the notion of weak equivalence between model instantiations. Through this weak equivalence we develop the concept of model mimicry, which can be used to investigate the introduction of uncertainty and error during the modeling process as well as provide a framework for identifying modeling decisions which may complement or negate one another. We instantiate SUMMA instances that mimic the behaviors of the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model and the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) by choosing modeling decisions which are implemented in each model. We compare runs from these models and their corresponding mimics across the Columbia River Basin located in the Pacific Northwest of the United States and Canada. From these comparisons, we are able to determine the extent to which model implementation has an effect on the results, as well as determine the changes in sensitivity of parameters due to these implementation differences. By examining these changes in results and sensitivities we can attempt to postulate changes in the modeling decisions which may provide better estimation of

  17. James Webb Telescope's Near Infrared Camera: Making Models, Building Understanding

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lebofsky, Larry A.; McCarthy, D. W.; Higgins, M. L.; Lebofsky, N. R.

    2010-10-01

    The Astronomy Camp for Girl Scout Leaders is a science education program sponsored by NASA's next large space telescope: The James Webb Space Telescope (JWST). The E/PO team for JWST's Near Infrared Camera (NIRCam), in collaboration with the Sahuaro Girl Scout Council, has developed a long-term relationship with adult leaders from all GSUSA Councils that directly benefits troops of all ages, not only in general science education but also specifically in the astronomical and technology concepts relating to JWST. We have been training and equipping these leaders so they can in turn teach young women essential concepts in astronomy, i.e., the night sky environment. We model what astronomers do by engaging trainers in the process of scientific inquiry, and we equip them to host troop-level astronomy-related activities. It is GSUSA's goal to foster girls’ interest and creativity in Science, Technology, Engineering, and Math, creating an environment that encourages their interests early in their lives while creating a safe place for girls to try and fail, and then try again and succeed. To date, we have trained over 158 leaders in 13 camps. These leaders have come from 24 states, DC, Guam, and Japan. While many of the camp activities are related to the "First Light” theme, many of the background activities relate to two of the other JWST and NIRCam themes: "Birth of Stars and Protoplanetary Systems” and "Planetary Systems and the Origin of Life.” The latter includes our own Solar System. Our poster will highlight the Planetary Systems theme: 1. Earth and Moon: Day and Night; Rotation and Revolution. 2. Earth/Moon Comparisons. 3. Size Model: The Diameters of the Planets. 4. Macramé Planetary (Solar) Distance Model. 5.What is a Planet? 6. Planet Sorting Cards. 7. Human Orrery 8. Lookback Time in Our Daily Lives NIRCam E/PO website: http://zeus.as.arizona.edu/ dmccarthy/GSUSA

  18. Design of Graph Analysis Model to support Decision Making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    An, Sang Ha; Lee, Sung Jin; Chang, Soon Heung; Kim, Sung Ho; Kim, Tae Woon

    2005-01-01

    Korea is meeting the growing electric power needs by using nuclear, fissile, hydro energy and so on. But we can not use fissile energy forever, and the people's consideration about nature has been changed. So we have to prepare appropriate energy by the conditions before people need more energy. And we should prepare dynamic response because people's need would be changed as the time goes on. So we designed graphic analysis model (GAM) for the dynamic analysis of decision on the energy sources. It can support Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) analysis based on Graphic User Interface

  19. Multiple attribute decision making model and application to food safety risk evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Lihua; Chen, Hong; Yan, Huizhe; Yang, Lifeng; Wu, Lifeng

    2017-01-01

    Decision making for supermarket food purchase decisions are characterized by network relationships. This paper analyzed factors that influence supermarket food selection and proposes a supplier evaluation index system based on the whole process of food production. The author established the intuitive interval value fuzzy set evaluation model based on characteristics of the network relationship among decision makers, and validated for a multiple attribute decision making case study. Thus, the proposed model provides a reliable, accurate method for multiple attribute decision making.

  20. Do E-Learning Tools Make a Difference? Results from a Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Desplaces, David; Blair, Carrie A.; Salvaggio, Trent

    2015-01-01

    Even as academics continue to debate whether distance education techniques are successful, the market demands increased distance education programs and a growing number of corporations are using e-learning to train their employees. We propose and examine a model comparing outcomes in 3 different pedagogical classroom settings: traditional,…

  1. Modelling Joint Decision Making Processes Involving Emotion-Related Valuing and Mutual Empathic Understanding

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Treur, J.

    2011-01-01

    In this paper a social agent model for joint decision making is presented addressing the role of mutually acknowledged empathic understanding in the decision making. The model is based on principles from recent neurological theories on mirror neurons, internal simulation, and emotion-related

  2. Model for the integrated network? Rehabilitation makes a good candidate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fowler, F J; Baum, C S

    1995-01-01

    Rehabilitation is a good model for an integrated delivery network (IDN). Because it is an integral part of the treatment plans of a diverse group of medical specialties, rehab often plays a pivotal role in patients' recovery. Since its focus is on functional outcomes, rehab is compatible with a capitated payment system. In addition, rehab entered the managed care arena before other "product lines," so rehab providers have experience with diverse reimbursement conditions. And although rehab encompasses all levels of care, it is not too large to function as a model for a full-scale IDN. There are four key stages in the development of a rehab IDN: A strong leader with a clear vision organizes a working committee composed of the key leaders of each entity involved in rehab: hospitals, nursing homes, home health, and others. The committee begins to design the proposed network. Though the committee may study other IDNs, its focus is on its own organization's needs and objectives. A master plan addressing systems gaps and opportunities throughout the IDN is drawn up. Integral to the plan is a schedule according to which each of the network's components will be integrated. The master plan is implemented. The working committee determines the IDN's final structure and names the members of the management team.

  3. European banks in Ukraine: Modelling risks, rewards and making forecasts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Helen Kostyuk

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The new model for banking control and regulation, suggested by Basel III, together with high dividend expectations of shareholders have fostered the transformation of the business model in European banking. The scale of market shares no longer plays an important role in banking business. The emphasis is now laid on its efficiency. It is determined by ROE indicators, the positive dynamics of which serves as: a good indicator for ensuring a proper level of capital adequacy of the bank and reducing systemic risks; a precondition for meeting the dividend expectations of shareholders; evidence of effective management of capital assets and bank costs. Thus, assessing and preventing the outflow of foreign capital from the national banking sector, the national market regulators should clearly understand the motivation behind it and take into account the business strategies of parent European banks, which include the following points: low liquidity of the stock market of the Eurozone, which significantly complicates the process of capitalization of European banking institutions, and inability to attract capital in sufficient amounts; potential opportunity for capitalization of banks (to meet the requirements of Basel III in the context of bank management and shareholders relations (improvement of profit management policy and dividend policy; optimization of asset management policy in order to reduce RWA assets in the assets of both parent and subsidiary banks

  4. Ensemble modelling and structured decision-making to support Emergency Disease Management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Webb, Colleen T; Ferrari, Matthew; Lindström, Tom; Carpenter, Tim; Dürr, Salome; Garner, Graeme; Jewell, Chris; Stevenson, Mark; Ward, Michael P; Werkman, Marleen; Backer, Jantien; Tildesley, Michael

    2017-03-01

    Epidemiological models in animal health are commonly used as decision-support tools to understand the impact of various control actions on infection spread in susceptible populations. Different models contain different assumptions and parameterizations, and policy decisions might be improved by considering outputs from multiple models. However, a transparent decision-support framework to integrate outputs from multiple models is nascent in epidemiology. Ensemble modelling and structured decision-making integrate the outputs of multiple models, compare policy actions and support policy decision-making. We briefly review the epidemiological application of ensemble modelling and structured decision-making and illustrate the potential of these methods using foot and mouth disease (FMD) models. In case study one, we apply structured decision-making to compare five possible control actions across three FMD models and show which control actions and outbreak costs are robustly supported and which are impacted by model uncertainty. In case study two, we develop a methodology for weighting the outputs of different models and show how different weighting schemes may impact the choice of control action. Using these case studies, we broadly illustrate the potential of ensemble modelling and structured decision-making in epidemiology to provide better information for decision-making and outline necessary development of these methods for their further application. Crown Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  5. Optimising Transport Decision Making using Customised Decision Models and Decision Conferences

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barfod, Michael Bruhn

    The subject of this Ph.D. thesis entitled “Optimising Transport Decision Making using Customised Decision Models and Decision Conferences” is multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) and decision support in the context of transport infrastructure assessments. Despite the fact that large amounts...... depends to a high degree on subjective preferences stated by the decision-makers as the methodology deals with impacts (or criteria) that are difficult to quantify or assign with a monetary value. As a result of this an examination process is proposed that can guide the decision-makers through...... and rail to bike transport projects. Two major concerns have been to propose an examination process that can be used in situations where complex decision problems need to be addressed by experts as well as non-experts in decision making, and to identify appropriate assessment techniques to be used...

  6. Exploring a Laboratory Model of Pharmacogenetics as Applied to Clinical Decision Making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David F. Kisor

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective: To evaluate a pilot of a laboratory model for relating pharmacogenetics to clinical decision making. Case Study: This pilot was undertaken and evaluated to help determine if a pharmacogenetics laboratory should be included in the core Doctor of Pharmacy curriculum. The placement of the laboratory exercise in the curriculum was determined by identifying the point in the curriculum where the students had been introduced to the chemistry of deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA as well as instructed on the chemistry of genetic variation. The laboratory included cytochrome P450 2C19 genotyping relative to the *2 variant. Twenty-four students served as the pilot group. Students provided buccal swabs as the source of DNA. Students stabilized the samples and were then provided instructions related to sample preparation, polymerase chain reaction, and gel electrophoresis. The results were reported as images of gels. Students used a reference gel image to compare their results to. Students then applied a dosing algorithm to make a "clinical decision" relative to clopidogrel use. Students were offered a post laboratory survey regarding attitudes toward the laboratory. Twenty-four students completed the laboratory with genotyping results being provided for 22 students (91.7%. Sixteen students were wild-type (*1/*1, while six students were heterozygous (*1/*2. Twenty-three students (96% completed the post laboratory survey. All 23 agreed (6, 26.1% or strongly agreed (17, 73.9% that the laboratory "had relevance and value in the pharmacy curriculum" Conclusion: The post pilot study survey exploring a laboratory model for pharmacogenetics related to clinical decision making indicated that such a laboratory would be viewed positively by students. This model may be adopted by colleges to expand pharmacogenetics education.   Type: Case Study

  7. Making Risk Models Operational for Situational Awareness and Decision Support

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Paulson, Patrick R.; Coles, Garill A.; Shoemaker, Steven V.

    2012-06-12

    Modernization of nuclear power operations control systems, in particular the move to digital control systems, creates an opportunity to modernize existing legacy infrastructure and extend plant life. We describe here decision support tools that allow the assessment of different facets of risk and support the optimization of available resources to reduce risk as plants are upgraded and maintained. This methodology could become an integrated part of the design review process and a part of the operations management systems. The methodology can be applied to the design of new reactors such as small nuclear reactors (SMR), and be helpful in assessing the risks of different configurations of the reactors. Our tool provides a low cost evaluation of alternative configurations and provides an expanded safety analysis by considering scenarios while early in the implementation cycle where cost impacts can be minimized. The effects of failures can be modeled and thoroughly vetted to understand their potential impact on risk. The process and tools presented here allow for an integrated assessment of risk by supporting traditional defense in depth approaches while taking into consideration the insertion of new digital instrument and control systems.

  8. Modeling and Analyzing Operational Decision-Making Synchronization of C2 Organization in Complex Environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zou Zhigang

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available In order to improve capability of operational decision-making synchronization (ODMS in command and control (C2 organization, the paper puts forward that ODMS is the negotiation process of situation cognition with three phases about “situation cognition, situation interaction and decision-making synchronization” in complex environment, and then the model and strategies of ODMS are given in quantity. Firstly, measure indexes of three steps above are given in the paper based on the time consumed in negotiation, and three patterns are proposed for negotiating timely in high quality during situation interaction. Secondly, the ODMS model with two stages in continuous changing situation is put forward in the paper, and ODMS strategies are analyzed within environment influence and time restriction. Thirdly, simulation cases are given to validate the process of ODMS under different continuous changing situations the results of this model are better than the other previous models to fulfill the actual restrictions, and the process of ODMS can be adjusted more reasonable for improving the capability of ODMS. Then we discuss the case and summarize the influence factors of ODMS in the C2 organization as organization structure, shared information resources, negotiation patterns, and allocation of decision rights.

  9. The Web-Surf Task: A translational model of human decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abram, Samantha V; Breton, Yannick-André; Schmidt, Brandy; Redish, A David; MacDonald, Angus W

    2016-02-01

    Animal models of decision-making are some of the most highly regarded psychological process models; however, there remains a disconnection between how these models are used for pre-clinical applications and the resulting treatment outcomes. This may be due to untested assumptions that different species recruit the same neural or psychological mechanisms. We propose a novel human foraging paradigm (Web-Surf Task) that we translated from a rat foraging paradigm (Restaurant Row) to evaluate cross-species decision-making similarities. We examined behavioral parallels in human and non-human animals using the respective tasks. We also compared two variants of the human task, one using videos and the other using photos as rewards, by correlating revealed and stated preferences. We demonstrate similarities in choice behaviors and decision reaction times in human and rat subjects. Findings also indicate that videos yielded more reliable and valid results. The joint use of the Web-Surf Task and Restaurant Row is therefore a promising approach for functional translational research, aiming to bridge pre-clinical and clinical lines of research using analogous tasks.

  10. Fuzzy Decision-Making Approach in Geometric Programming for a Single Item EOQ Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Monalisha Pattnaik

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Background and methods: Fuzzy decision-making approach is allowed in geometric programming for a single item EOQ model with dynamic ordering cost and demand-dependent unit cost. The setup cost varies with the quantity produced/purchased and the modification of objective function with storage area in the presence of imprecisely estimated parameters are investigated.  It incorporates all concepts of a fuzzy arithmetic approach, the quantity ordered, and demand per unit compares both fuzzy geometric programming technique and other models for linear membership functions.  Results and conclusions: Investigation of the properties of an optimal solution allows developing an algorithm whose validity is illustrated through an example problem and the results discu ssed. Sensitivity analysis of the optimal solution is also studied with respect to changes in different parameter values.  

  11. An Extension of the Meaning Making Model Using Data From Chinese Cancer Patients: The Moderating Effect of Resilience.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gan, Yiqun; Zheng, Lei; Wang, Yu; Li, Wenju

    2017-10-05

    Meaning making refers to the process of integrating the appraised meaning of a traumatic event into one's global belief system to reduce cognitive discrepancy. Park and Folkman (1997) proposed the renowned "meaning-making model," which was a major contribution to trauma research from a positive psychology viewpoint. This concept is important for understanding the trauma of cancer patients, as searching for meaning is fairly common after a cancer diagnosis. However, the original model did not incorporate individual differences in resilience, which might account for the fact that research on this model has produced contradictory results. This study recruited 146 Chinese cancer patients and used different scales to measure each stage of the meaning-making process, resilience, posttraumatic growth (PTG), and anxiety/depression symptoms. A follow-up study was conducted after 6 months. A structural equation model was constructed; meaning discrepancy triggered meaning making, predicted changes in situational and global beliefs, and ultimately resulted in better mental health outcomes. The moderating effect of resilience was noteworthy; the indirect effect of meaning making on the relationship between meaning discrepancy (Time 1 [T1]) and mental health outcomes (Time 2 [T2]) was significant in the low resilience group, but nonsignificant in the high resilience group. These results suggest that the effects of meaning-making processes may differ based on individual factors, such as resilience. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  12. NRG Oncology/National Surgical Adjuvant Breast and Bowel Project Decision-Making Project-1 Results: Decision Making in Breast Cancer Risk Reduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holmberg, Christine; Bandos, Hanna; Fagerlin, Angela; Bevers, Therese B; Battaglia, Tracy A; Wickerham, D Lawrence; McCaskill-Stevens, Worta J

    2017-11-01

    Selective estrogen receptor modulators (SERMs) reduce breast cancer risk. Adoption of SERMs as prevention medication remains low. This is the first study to quantify social, cultural, and psychologic factors driving decision making regarding SERM use in women counseled on breast cancer prevention options. A survey study was conducted with women counseled by a health care provider (HCP) about SERMs. A statistical comparison of responses was performed between those who decided to use and those who decided not to use SERMs. Independent factors associated with the decision were determined using logistic regression. Of 1,023 participants, 726 made a decision: 324 (44.6%) decided to take a SERM and 402 (55.4%) decided not to. The most important factor for deciding on SERM use was the HCP recommendation. Other characteristics associated with the decision included attitudes and perceptions regarding medication intake, breast cancer worry, trust in HCP, family members with blood clots, and others' experiences with SERMs. The odds of SERM intake when HCP recommended were higher for participants with a positive attitude toward taking medications than for those with a negative attitude ( P interaction = 0.01). This study highlights the importance of social and cultural aspects for SERM decision making, most importantly personal beliefs and experiences. HCPs' recommendations play a statistically significant role in decision making and are more likely to be followed if in line with patients' attitudes. Results indicate the need for developing interventions for HCPs that not only focus on the presentation of medical information but, equally as important, on addressing patients' beliefs and experiences. Cancer Prev Res; 10(11); 625-34. ©2017 AACR See related editorial by Crew, p. 609 . ©2017 American Association for Cancer Research.

  13. Modeling Search Behaviors during the Acquisition of Expertise in a Sequential Decision-Making Task

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristóbal Moënne-Loccoz

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Our daily interaction with the world is plagued of situations in which we develop expertise through self-motivated repetition of the same task. In many of these interactions, and especially when dealing with computer and machine interfaces, we must deal with sequences of decisions and actions. For instance, when drawing cash from an ATM machine, choices are presented in a step-by-step fashion and a specific sequence of choices must be performed in order to produce the expected outcome. But, as we become experts in the use of such interfaces, is it possible to identify specific search and learning strategies? And if so, can we use this information to predict future actions? In addition to better understanding the cognitive processes underlying sequential decision making, this could allow building adaptive interfaces that can facilitate interaction at different moments of the learning curve. Here we tackle the question of modeling sequential decision-making behavior in a simple human-computer interface that instantiates a 4-level binary decision tree (BDT task. We record behavioral data from voluntary participants while they attempt to solve the task. Using a Hidden Markov Model-based approach that capitalizes on the hierarchical structure of behavior, we then model their performance during the interaction. Our results show that partitioning the problem space into a small set of hierarchically related stereotyped strategies can potentially capture a host of individual decision making policies. This allows us to follow how participants learn and develop expertise in the use of the interface. Moreover, using a Mixture of Experts based on these stereotyped strategies, the model is able to predict the behavior of participants that master the task.

  14. Wavelet Network Model Based on Multiple Criteria Decision Making for Forecasting Temperature Time Series

    OpenAIRE

    Zhang, Jian; Yang, Xiao-hua; Chen, Xiao-juan

    2015-01-01

    Due to nonlinear and multiscale characteristics of temperature time series, a new model called wavelet network model based on multiple criteria decision making (WNMCDM) has been proposed, which combines the advantage of wavelet analysis, multiple criteria decision making, and artificial neural network. One case for forecasting extreme monthly maximum temperature of Miyun Reservoir has been conducted to examine the performance of WNMCDM model. Compared with nearest neighbor bootstrapping regr...

  15. Postscript: Making Important Distinctions--Diagnostic Models, Theoretical Models, and the Mnemonic Model of PTSD

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monroe, Scott M.; Mineka, Susan

    2008-01-01

    Our commentary was intended to stimulate discussion about what we perceive to be shortcomings of the mnemonic model and its research base, in the hope of shedding some light on key questions for understanding posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). In our view, Berntsen, Rubin, and Bohni have responded only to what they perceive to be shortcomings…

  16. [Test your decision-making. When to do endodontic retreatment? Results of a study].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aryanpour, S; D'Hoore, W; Van Nieuwenhuysen, J P

    2000-01-01

    The goals of this survey were to determine the most frequent therapeutic option and to evaluate the consensus among a sample of Belgian practitioners managing the same simulated cases of root treated teeth. On average, conservative options (nonsurgical retreatment 35.27% and no retreatment 29.61%) are the most selected alternatives. Surgical options and extraction respectively constitute 21.18% and 13% of the treatment propositions. As expected, the presence of radiographic and/or clinical signs resulted in a more aggressive attitude, but the presence of symptoms does not seem to be a valid reason for reintervention. The results of the study demonstrate considerable interindividual variations in clinical management of root treated teeth, regardless of personal factors, such as gender, years of experience and graduation institution. Even if a consensus appears within a group of professionals, it is not necessarily applied by a majority of practitioners; this contributes certainly to the explanation of the geographical or institutional variations noted in the medical practices.

  17. Neoatherosclerosis: Coronary stents seal atherosclerotic lesions but result in making a new problem of atherosclerosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Komiyama, Hidenori; Takano, Masamichi; Hata, Noritake; Seino, Yoshihiko; Shimizu, Wataru; Mizuno, Kyoichi

    2015-11-26

    Chronic inflammation of the native vessel wall with infiltration of lipid-laden foamy macrophages through impaired endothelium results in atherosclerosis. Percutaneous coronary intervention, including metallic stent implantation, is now widely utilized for the treatment of atherosclerotic lesions of the coronary artery. Bare-metal stents and the subsequently developed drug-eluting stents seal the atherosclerosis and resolve lumen stenosis or obstruction of the epicardial coronary artery and myocardial ischemia. After stent implantation, neointima proliferates within the stented segment. Chronic inflammation caused by a foreign body reaction to the implanted stent and subsequent neovascularization, which is characterized by the continuous recruitment of macrophages into the vessel, result in the transformation of the usual neointima into an atheromatous neointima. Neointima with an atherosclerotic appearance, such as that caused by thin-cap fibroatheromas, is now recognized as neoatherosclerosis, which can sometimes cause in-stent restenosis and acute thrombotic occlusion originating from the stent segment following disruption of the atheroma. Neoatherosclerosis is emerging as a new coronary stent-associated problem that has not yet been resolved. In this review article, we will discuss possible mechanisms, clinical challenges, and the future outlook of neoatherosclerosis.

  18. Violations of war: testing the meaning-making model among Vietnam veterans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steger, Michael F; Owens, Gina P; Park, Crystal L

    2015-01-01

    Posttrauma adjustment theories postulate that intense stressors violate people's beliefs about the world and perceived ability to achieve valued goals. Failure to make meaning from traumatic events exacerbates negative adjustment (e.g., PTSD), whereas success facilitates positive adjustment (e.g., stress-related growth). The current study aimed to test this model of direct and indirect effects among a sample of veterans. Vietnam veterans (N = 130) completed assessment measures in an online survey format. Participants were largely male (91%) and Caucasian (93%) with a mean age of 61 years. Results supported basic model tenets, linking military stress severity to violations of beliefs and goals. In the final model, only goal violations carried indirect effects of severity on PTSD symptoms. Presence of and search for meaning carried a portion of the indirect effects between goal violations and both PTSD and stress-related growth. Findings suggest that traumatic stress may disrupt people's goals and meaning-making may center on these disruptions. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  19. A DECISION MAKING MODEL FOR SELECTION OF WIND ENERGY PRODUCTION FARMS BASED ON FUZZY ANALYTIC HIERARCHY PROCESS

    OpenAIRE

    SAGBAS, Aysun; MAZMANOGLU, Adnan; ALP, Reyhan

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to present an evaluation model for the prioritization of wind energy production sites, namely, Mersin, Silifke and Anamur, located in Mediterranean Sea region of Turkey. For this purpose, a fuzzy analytical hierarchy decision making approach based on multi-criteria decision making framework including economic, technical, and environmental criteria was performed. It is found that the results obtained from fuzzy analytical hierarchy process (FAHP) approach, Anamur d...

  20. The Role of Model Making as a Constructivist Learning Tool to Enhance Deep Learning in a Building Technology Module

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Una Beagon

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper explores how the use of model making assignments in a Building Technology module encourages deeper learning of a particular topic compared to traditional lecture style teaching using 2D drawings or 3D models. It also investigates how student engagement can be improved as a result of creating a ‘constructivist environment’. The assessment tool, which involved students building a model of a window jamb and cill, was designed to encourage creativity and included elements of best practice such as reflection and development of written communication skills which are important graduate attributes for employability. Quantitative analyses based on surveys carried out amongst the students indicated that, students generally enjoyed making the model and felt, as an activity improved their attention levels. Furthermore, results showed that students felt more confident about recalling the specific detail as a result of the model making exercise compared to creating 2D drawings or merely observing a 3D model. Student feedback confirmed that model making goes some way to bridge the gap between lecture material and an understanding of how buildings are constructed on site.

  1. Investigation of Effectiveness of Order Review and Release Models in Make to Order Supply Chain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kundu Kaustav

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Nowadays customisation becomes more common due to vast requirement from the customers for which industries are trying to use make-to-order (MTO strategy. Due to high variation in the process, workload control models are extensively used for jobshop companies which usually adapt MTO strategy. Some authors tried to implement workload control models, order review and release systems, in non-repetitive manufacturing companies, where there is a dominant flow in production. Those models are better in shop floor but their performances are never been investigated in high variation situations like MTO supply chain. This paper starts with the introduction of particular issues in MTO companies and a general overview of order review and release systems widely used in the industries. Two order review and release systems, the Limited and Balanced models, particularly suitable for flow shop system are applied to MTO supply chain, where the processing times are difficult to estimate due to high variation. Simulation results show that the Balanced model performs much better than the Limited model if the processing times can be estimated preciously.

  2. Combined Economic and Hydrologic Modeling to Support Collaborative Decision Making Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheer, D. P.

    2008-12-01

    For more than a decade, the core concept of the author's efforts in support of collaborative decision making has been a combination of hydrologic simulation and multi-objective optimization. The modeling has generally been used to support collaborative decision making processes. The OASIS model developed by HydroLogics Inc. solves a multi-objective optimization at each time step using a mixed integer linear program (MILP). The MILP can be configured to include any user defined objective, including but not limited too economic objectives. For example, an estimated marginal value for water for crops and M&I use were included in the objective function to drive trades in a model of the lower Rio Grande. The formulation of the MILP, constraints and objectives, in any time step is conditional: it changes based on the value of state variables and dynamic external forcing functions, such as rainfall, hydrology, market prices, arrival of migratory fish, water temperature, etc. It therefore acts as a dynamic short term multi-objective economic optimization for each time step. MILP is capable of solving a general problem that includes a very realistic representation of the physical system characteristics in addition to the normal multi-objective optimization objectives and constraints included in economic models. In all of these models, the short term objective function is a surrogate for achieving long term multi-objective results. The long term performance for any alternative (especially including operating strategies) is evaluated by simulation. An operating rule is the combination of conditions, parameters, constraints and objectives used to determine the formulation of the short term optimization in each time step. Heuristic wrappers for the simulation program have been developed improve the parameters of an operating rule, and are initiating research on a wrapper that will allow us to employ a genetic algorithm to improve the form of the rule (conditions, constraints

  3. A Survey of Enterprise Architecture Analysis Using Multi Criteria Decision Making Models (MCDM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zia, Mehmooda Jabeen; Azam, Farooque; Allauddin, Maria

    System design becomes really important for software production due to continuous increase in size and complexity of software systems. It is a complex design activity to build architecture for the systems like large enterprises. Thus it is a critical issue to select the correct architecture in software engineering domain. Moreover, in enterprise architecture selection different goals and objectives must be taken into consideration as it is a multi-criteria decision making problem. Generally this field of enterprise architecture analysis has progressed from the application of linear weighting, through integer programming and linear programming to multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) models. In this paper we survey two multi-criteria decision making models (AHP, ANP) to determine that to what extent they have been used in making powerful decisions in complex enterprise architecture analysis. We have found that by using ANP model, decision makers of an enterprise can make more precise and suitable decisions in selection of enterprise architecture styles.

  4. Practice makes perfect: progressive improvement of laparoscopic pyloromyotomy results, with experience.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vegunta, Ravindra K; Woodland, Jay H; Rawlings, Arthur L; Wallace, Lizabeth J; Pearl, Richard H

    2008-02-01

    Pyloric stenosis can now be treated effectively with laparoscopic pyloromyotomy (LP). Few large outcome studies have been published regarding the laparoscopic technique. In this paper, we describe our experience with the first 185 consecutive LPs. An institutional review board-approved retrospective outcomes analysis was performed on our first 185 consecutive LPs. Previous publications comparing open pyloromyotomy (OP) and LP are reviewed. Our hypothesis is that, with experience, the outcome of LP will equal or surpass that of OP. A total 185 infants underwent LPs during the study period. The infants had median values of age: 33 days; body weight: 4 kg; surgery duration: 25 minutes; postoperative length of stay (LOS): 25.5 hours; and total LOS: 45 hours. There were 7 complications (3.78%): 4 incomplete pyloromyotomies (2.2%), 1 pyloric mucosal perforation (0.5%), 1 delayed duodenal perforation (0.5%), and 1 wound infection (0.5%). There has been a progressive reduction in the time required for surgery, from a median of 29 minutes in the first 60 cases to 21.5 in the last 65. Postoperative LOS has fallen from a median of 26 hours in the first half to 24.5 in the later half. Complications occurred primarily in the first third of our cases. We are able to demonstrate that, with experience, one can expect progressive improvement in the outcomes following LP in infants. Our surgery duration and complications in the last 65 cases are better than most published results for OP or LP.

  5. Model Simultan Penentuan Toleransi Komponen Produk Rakitan dan Pabrik dalam Kolaborasi Manufaktur Make-to-Order

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Imron Mustajib

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper discusses the development of simultaneous optimization model to determine component tolerance of assembly product and plant for manufacturing processes by considering quality tolerance limits, and delivery time constraint to minimize total cost in collaboration environment of make-to-order manufacturing systems. Total cost of the system consists of manufacturing costs and quality loss costs as the tolerance function, operational costs for multi-plant manufacturing collaboration which includes: setup costs, material handling costs, operating costs of assembly, manual operations costs, and transportation costs. Formulation of the model developed uses mixed integer non linear programming as a method of solution search. In the numerical examples presented, the optimization process results an optimal solution. Optimal solution is not sensitive if the changes in quality tolerance constraint and delivery time constraint is not large. While the addition of an alternative plant for producing a component can changes the alternative plant selected

  6. Social media monitoring model to guide decision making of destination management organization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guilherme Mendes Thomaz

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available The widespread adoption of social media by users and organizations has generated an exponential increase in data and content that offer opportunities to be processed into information and knowledge. However, dealing with such data is considered a challenge and requires the use of adequate resources. Considering this scenario, the aim of this study was to present a social media monitoring model to support decision making by DMOs. The model proposed has been tested before and during the 2014 FIFA World Cup, using Curitiba and Foz do Iguaçu (Paraná State as destinations, having a structured of seven stages. The results of the period were composed of about 50,000 messages, tours and associated ontology application. A large part of the frequency relations, between attractions or between host cities, have been com-patible with their reality in the tourist trade.

  7. A Multilevel Model of Minority Opinion Expression and Team Decision-Making Effectiveness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Guihyun; DeShon, Richard P.

    2010-01-01

    The consideration of minority opinions when making team decisions is an important factor that contributes to team effectiveness. A multilevel model of minority opinion influence in decision-making teams is developed to address the conditions that relate to adequate consideration of minority opinions. Using a sample of 57 teams working on a…

  8. Agent-Based Modeling of Consumer Decision making Process Based on Power Distance and Personality

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Roozmand, O.; Ghasem-Aghaee, N.; Hofstede, G.J.; Nematbakhsh, M.A.; Baraani, A.; Verwaart, T.

    2011-01-01

    Simulating consumer decision making processes involves different disciplines such as: sociology, social psychology, marketing, and computer science. In this paper, we propose an agent-based conceptual and computational model of consumer decision-making based on culture, personality and human needs.

  9. Examination of a Group Counseling Model of Career Decision Making with College Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rowell, P. Clay; Mobley, A. Keith; Kemer, Gulsah; Giordano, Amanda

    2014-01-01

    The authors examined the effectiveness of a group career counseling model (Pyle, K. R., 2007) on college students' career decision-making abilities. They used a Solomon 4-group design and found that students who participated in the career counseling groups had significantly greater increases in career decision-making abilities than those who…

  10. A Need to Know: An Ethical Decision-Making Model for Research Administrators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lincoln, Sarah Hope; Holmes, Elizabeth K.

    2008-01-01

    When faced with a morally charged situation, individuals engage in an ethical decision-making process to resolve the ethical dilemma. This paper outlines a model that describes the steps in the ethical decision-making process and identifies situational factors, collectively termed moral intensity, which may influence this process. The use of a…

  11. Decision-Making Models in a Tunisian University: Towards a Framework for Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khefacha, I.; Belkacem, L.

    2014-01-01

    This study investigates how decisions are made in Tunisian public higher education establishments. Some factors are identified as having a potentially significant impact on the odds that the decision-making process follows the characteristics of one of the most well known decision-making models: collegial, political, bureaucratic or anarchical…

  12. Principles of Classroom Management: A Professional Decision-Making Model, 7th Edition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levin, James; Nolan, James F.

    2014-01-01

    This text takes a decision-making model approach to classroom management. It provides teachers with a very practical system to influence students to choose to behave productively and to strive for academic success. This widely used text presents an array of decision-making options that guide teachers in developing positive, pro-social classroom…

  13. A Decision-Making Model For Managing or Regenerating Southern Upland Hardwoods

    Science.gov (United States)

    K. Kyle Cunningham; Andrew W. Ezell; Keith L. Belli; John D. Hodges

    2004-01-01

    A decision-making model for managing or regenerating southern upland hardwoods is being created for three physiographic provinces including the Cumberland Plateau, Western Highland Rim, and Upper Coastal Plain. The model performs a stand evaluation, from a silvicultural standpoint, and declares a stand as being either manageable or in need of regeneration. Model...

  14. A Survey of Game Theoretic Approaches to Modelling Decision-Making in Information Warfare Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kathryn Merrick

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Our increasing dependence on information technologies and autonomous systems has escalated international concern for information- and cyber-security in the face of politically, socially and religiously motivated cyber-attacks. Information warfare tactics that interfere with the flow of information can challenge the survival of individuals and groups. It is increasingly important that both humans and machines can make decisions that ensure the trustworthiness of information, communication and autonomous systems. Subsequently, an important research direction is concerned with modelling decision-making processes. One approach to this involves modelling decision-making scenarios as games using game theory. This paper presents a survey of information warfare literature, with the purpose of identifying games that model different types of information warfare operations. Our contribution is a systematic identification and classification of information warfare games, as a basis for modelling decision-making by humans and machines in such scenarios. We also present a taxonomy of games that map to information warfare and cyber crime problems as a precursor to future research on decision-making in such scenarios. We identify and discuss open research questions including the role of behavioural game theory in modelling human decision making and the role of machine decision-making in information warfare scenarios.

  15. A Decision-Making Model to Remove Discrepancies: Application to a Reading Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Gigch, John P.

    1974-01-01

    Author believes that the application of the Decision-Making Model to the removal of "discrepancies" allows the teachers and other school agents to proceed with changes in an orderly and rational manner. (Author)

  16. Personnel Recovery: Using Game Theory to Model Strategic Decision Making in the Contemporary Operating Environment

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Ecklund, Marshall V

    2005-01-01

    .... Thus, the central research question is as follows: Given a report of the physical location of an evader, is the military using the most rational decision-making model to offset the predictable nature of traditional recovery activities...

  17. An outcome-based learning model to identify emerging threats : experimental and simulation results.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Martinez-Moyano, I. J.; Conrad, S. H.; Andersen, D. F.; Decision and Information Sciences; SNL; Univ. at Albany

    2007-01-01

    The authors present experimental and simulation results of an outcome-based learning model as it applies to the identification of emerging threats. This model integrates judgment, decision making, and learning theories to provide an integrated framework for the behavioral study of emerging threats.

  18. A Production Planning Model for Make-to-Order Foundry Flow Shop with Capacity Constraint

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xixing Li

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The mode of production in the modern manufacturing enterprise mainly prefers to MTO (Make-to-Order; how to reasonably arrange the production plan has become a very common and urgent problem for enterprises’ managers to improve inner production reformation in the competitive market environment. In this paper, a mathematical model of production planning is proposed to maximize the profit with capacity constraint. Four kinds of cost factors (material cost, process cost, delay cost, and facility occupy cost are considered in the proposed model. Different factors not only result in different profit but also result in different satisfaction degrees of customers. Particularly, the delay cost and facility occupy cost cannot reach the minimum at the same time; the two objectives are interactional. This paper presents a mathematical model based on the actual production process of a foundry flow shop. An improved genetic algorithm (IGA is proposed to solve the biobjective problem of the model. Also, the gene encoding and decoding, the definition of fitness function, and genetic operators have been illustrated. In addition, the proposed algorithm is used to solve the production planning problem of a foundry flow shop in a casting enterprise. And comparisons with other recently published algorithms show the efficiency and effectiveness of the proposed algorithm.

  19. Decision making under uncertainty in a spiking neural network model of the basal ganglia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Héricé, Charlotte; Khalil, Radwa; Moftah, Marie; Boraud, Thomas; Guthrie, Martin; Garenne, André

    2016-12-01

    The mechanisms of decision-making and action selection are generally thought to be under the control of parallel cortico-subcortical loops connecting back to distinct areas of cortex through the basal ganglia and processing motor, cognitive and limbic modalities of decision-making. We have used these properties to develop and extend a connectionist model at a spiking neuron level based on a previous rate model approach. This model is demonstrated on decision-making tasks that have been studied in primates and the electrophysiology interpreted to show that the decision is made in two steps. To model this, we have used two parallel loops, each of which performs decision-making based on interactions between positive and negative feedback pathways. This model is able to perform two-level decision-making as in primates. We show here that, before learning, synaptic noise is sufficient to drive the decision-making process and that, after learning, the decision is based on the choice that has proven most likely to be rewarded. The model is then submitted to lesion tests, reversal learning and extinction protocols. We show that, under these conditions, it behaves in a consistent manner and provides predictions in accordance with observed experimental data.

  20. Encapsulation of a Decision-Making Model to Optimize Supplier Selection via Structural Equation Modeling (SEM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sahul Hameed, Ruzanna; Thiruchelvam, Sivadass; Nasharuddin Mustapha, Kamal; Che Muda, Zakaria; Mat Husin, Norhayati; Ezanee Rusli, Mohd; Yong, Lee Choon; Ghazali, Azrul; Itam, Zarina; Hakimie, Hazlinda; Beddu, Salmia; Liyana Mohd Kamal, Nur

    2016-03-01

    This paper proposes a conceptual framework to compare criteria/factor that influence the supplier selection. A mixed methods approach comprising qualitative and quantitative survey will be used. The study intend to identify and define the metrics that key stakeholders at Public Works Department (PWD) believed should be used for supplier. The outcomes would foresee the possible initiatives to bring procurement in PWD to a strategic level. The results will provide a deeper understanding of drivers for supplier’s selection in the construction industry. The obtained output will benefit many parties involved in the supplier selection decision-making. The findings provides useful information and greater understanding of the perceptions that PWD executives hold regarding supplier selection and the extent to which these perceptions are consistent with findings from prior studies. The findings from this paper can be utilized as input for policy makers to outline any changes in the current procurement code of practice in order to enhance the degree of transparency and integrity in decision-making.

  1. Multiple attribute decision making model and application to food safety risk evaluation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lihua Ma

    Full Text Available Decision making for supermarket food purchase decisions are characterized by network relationships. This paper analyzed factors that influence supermarket food selection and proposes a supplier evaluation index system based on the whole process of food production. The author established the intuitive interval value fuzzy set evaluation model based on characteristics of the network relationship among decision makers, and validated for a multiple attribute decision making case study. Thus, the proposed model provides a reliable, accurate method for multiple attribute decision making.

  2. Using Coupled Simulation Models to Link Pastoral Decision Making and Ecosystem Services

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Randall B. Boone

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Historically, pastoral people were able to more freely use the services their semi-arid and arid ecosystems provide, and they adapted to changes in ways that improved their well-being. More recently, their ability to adapt has been constrained due to changes from within and from outside their communities. To compare possible responses by pastoral communities, we modeled ecosystem services and tied those services to decisions that people make at the household level. We created an agent-based household model called DECUMA, joined that model with the ecosystem model SAVANNA, and applied the linked models to southeastern Kajiado District, Kenya. The structure of the new agent-based model and linkages between the models are described, and then we demonstrate the model results using a scenario that shows changes in Maasai well-being in response to drought. We then explore two additional but related scenarios, quantifying household well-being if access to a grazing reserve is lost and if access is lost but those most affected are compensated. In the second scenario, households in group ranches abutting the grazing reserve that lost access had large declines in livestock populations, less food energy from animal sources, increased livestock sales and grain purchases, and increased need for supplemental foods. Households in more distant areas showed no changes or had increases in livestock populations because their herds had fewer animals with which to compete for forage. When households neighboring the grazing reserve were compensated for the lease of the lands they had used, they prospered. We describe some benefits and limitations of the agent-based approach.

  3. A tuning algorithm for model predictive controllers based on genetic algorithms and fuzzy decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Lee, J H; Svrcek, W Y; Young, B R

    2008-01-01

    Model Predictive Control is a valuable tool for the process control engineer in a wide variety of applications. Because of this the structure of an MPC can vary dramatically from application to application. There have been a number of works dedicated to MPC tuning for specific cases. Since MPCs can differ significantly, this means that these tuning methods become inapplicable and a trial and error tuning approach must be used. This can be quite time consuming and can result in non-optimum tuning. In an attempt to resolve this, a generalized automated tuning algorithm for MPCs was developed. This approach is numerically based and combines a genetic algorithm with multi-objective fuzzy decision-making. The key advantages to this approach are that genetic algorithms are not problem specific and only need to be adapted to account for the number and ranges of tuning parameters for a given MPC. As well, multi-objective fuzzy decision-making can handle qualitative statements of what optimum control is, in addition to being able to use multiple inputs to determine tuning parameters that best match the desired results. This is particularly useful for multi-input, multi-output (MIMO) cases where the definition of "optimum" control is subject to the opinion of the control engineer tuning the system. A case study will be presented in order to illustrate the use of the tuning algorithm. This will include how different definitions of "optimum" control can arise, and how they are accounted for in the multi-objective decision making algorithm. The resulting tuning parameters from each of the definition sets will be compared, and in doing so show that the tuning parameters vary in order to meet each definition of optimum control, thus showing the generalized automated tuning algorithm approach for tuning MPCs is feasible.

  4. Hub and spoke model: making rural healthcare in India affordable, available and accessible.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Devarakonda, Srichand

    2016-01-01

    Quality health care should be within everyone's reach, especially in a developing country. While India has the largest private health sector in the world, only one-fifth of healthcare expenditure is publically financed; it is mostly an out-of-pocket expense. About 70% of Indians live in rural areas making about $3 per day, and a major portion of that goes towards food and shelter and, thus, not towards health care. Transportation facilities in rural India are poor, making access to medical facilities difficult, and infrastructure facilities are minimal, making the available medical care insufficient. The challenge presented to India was to provide health care that was accessible, available and affordable to people in rural areas and the low-income bracket. The intent of this article is to determine whether the hub and spoke model (HSM), when implemented in the healthcare industry, can expand the market reach and increase profits while reducing costs of operations for organizations and, thereby, cost to customers. This article also discusses the importance of information and communications technologies (ICT) in the HSM approach, which the handful of published articles in this topic have failed to discuss. This article opts for an exploratory study, including review of published literature, web articles, viewpoints of industry experts, published journals, and in-depth interviews. This article will discuss how and why the HSM works in India's healthcare industry while isolating its strengths and weaknesses, and analyzing the impact of India's success. India's HSM implementation has become a paramount example of an acceptable model that, while exceeding the needs and expectations of its patients, is cost-effective and has obtained operational and health-driven results. Despite being an emerging nation, India takes the top spot in terms of affordability of ICT as well as for having the highest number of computer-literate graduates and healthcare workers in the world

  5. Making interdisciplinary solid Earth modeling and analysis tools accessible in a diverse undergraduate and graduate classroom

    Science.gov (United States)

    Becker, T. W.

    2011-12-01

    I present results from ongoing, NSF-CAREER funded educational and research efforts that center around making numerical tools in seismology and geodynamics more accessible to a broader audience. The goal is not only to train students in quantitative, interdisciplinary research, but also to make methods more easily accessible to practitioners across disciplines. I describe the two main efforts that were funded, the Solid Earth Research and Teaching Environment (SEATREE, geosys.usc.edu/projects/seatree/), and a new Numerical Methods class. SEATREE is a modular and user-friendly software framework to facilitate using solid Earth research tools in the undergraduate and graduate classroom and for interdisciplinary, scientific collaboration. We use only open-source software, and most programming is done in the Python computer language. We strive to make use of modern software design and development concepts while remaining compatible with traditional scientific coding and existing, legacy software. Our goals are to provide a fully contained, yet transparent package that lets users operate in an easy, graphically supported "black box" mode, while also allowing to look under the hood, for example to conduct numerous forward models to explore parameter space. SEATREE currently has several implemented modules, including on global mantle flow, 2D phase velocity tomography, and 2D mantle convection and was used at the University of Southern California, Los Angeles, and at a 2010 CIDER summer school tutorial. SEATREE was developed in collaboration with engineering and computer science undergraduate students, some of which have gone on to work in Earth Science projects. In the long run, we envision SEATREE to contribute to new ways of sharing scientific research, and making (numerical) experiments truly reproducible again. The other project is a set of lecture notes and Matlab exercises on Numerical Methods in solid Earth, focusing on finite difference and element methods. The

  6. Hospital networks: how to make them work in Belgium? Facilitators and barriers of different governance models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Pourcq, Kaat; De Regge, Melissa; Van den Heede, Koen; Van de Voorde, Carine; Gemmel, Paul; Eeckloo, Kristof

    2018-03-29

    Objectives This study aims to identify the facilitators and barriers to governance models of hospital collaborations. The country-specific characteristics of the Belgian healthcare system and legislation are taken into account. Methods A case study was carried out in six Belgian hospital collaborations. Different types of governance models were selected: two health systems, two participant-governed networks, and two lead-organization-governed networks. Within these collaborations, 43 people were interviewed. Results All structures have both advantages and disadvantages. It is important that the governance model fits the network. However, structural, procedural, and especially contextual factors also affect the collaborations, such as alignment of hospitals' and professionals' goals, competition, distance, level of integrated care, time needed for decision-making, and legal and financial incentives. Conclusion The fit between the governance model and the collaboration can facilitate the functioning of a collaboration. The main barriers we identified are contextual factors. The Belgian government needs to play a major role in facilitating collaboration.

  7. Monoscopic photogrammetry to obtain 3D models by a mobile device: a method for making facial prostheses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salazar-Gamarra, Rodrigo; Seelaus, Rosemary; da Silva, Jorge Vicente Lopes; da Silva, Airton Moreira; Dib, Luciano Lauria

    2016-05-25

    The aim of this study is to present the development of a new technique to obtain 3D models using photogrammetry by a mobile device and free software, as a method for making digital facial impressions of patients with maxillofacial defects for the final purpose of 3D printing of facial prostheses. With the use of a mobile device, free software and a photo capture protocol, 2D captures of the anatomy of a patient with a facial defect were transformed into a 3D model. The resultant digital models were evaluated for visual and technical integrity. The technical process and resultant models were described and analyzed for technical and clinical usability. Generating 3D models to make digital face impressions was possible by the use of photogrammetry with photos taken by a mobile device. The facial anatomy of the patient was reproduced by a *.3dp and a *.stl file with no major irregularities. 3D printing was possible. An alternative method for capturing facial anatomy is possible using a mobile device for the purpose of obtaining and designing 3D models for facial rehabilitation. Further studies must be realized to compare 3D modeling among different techniques and systems. Free software and low cost equipment could be a feasible solution to obtain 3D models for making digital face impressions for maxillofacial prostheses, improving access for clinical centers that do not have high cost technology considered as a prior acquisition.

  8. Emotion, Decision-Making and Substance Dependence: A Somatic-Marker Model of Addiction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verdejo-García, A; Pérez-García, M; Bechara, A

    2006-01-01

    Similar to patients with orbitofrontal cortex lesions, substance dependent individuals (SDI) show signs of impairments in decision-making, characterised by a tendency to choose the immediate reward at the expense of severe negative future consequences. The somatic-marker hypothesis proposes that decision-making depends in many important ways on neural substrates that regulate homeostasis, emotion and feeling. According to this model, there should be a link between abnormalities in experiencing emotions in SDI, and their severe impairments in decision-making in real-life. Growing evidence from neuroscientific studies suggests that core aspects of substance addiction may be explained in terms of abnormal emotional guidance of decision-making. Behavioural studies have revealed emotional processing and decision-making deficits in SDI. Combined neuropsychological and physiological assessment has demonstrated that the poorer decision-making of SDI is associated with altered reactions to reward and punishing events. Imaging studies have shown that impaired decision-making in addiction is associated with abnormal functioning of a distributed neural network critical for the processing of emotional information, including the ventromedial cortex, the amygdala, the striatum, the anterior cingulate cortex, and the insular/somato-sensory cortices, as well as non-specific neurotransmitter systems that modulate activities of neural processes involved in decision-making. The aim of this paper is to review this growing evidence, and to examine the extent of which these studies support a somatic-marker model of addiction. PMID:18615136

  9. Effects of 3-D Visualization of Groundwater Modeling for Water Resource Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Block, J. L.; Arrowsmith, R.

    2006-12-01

    The rise of 3-D visualization hardware and software technology provides important opportunities to advance scientific and policy research. Although the petroleum industry has used immersive 3-D technology since the early 1990's for the visualization of geologic data among experts, there has been little use of this technology for decision making. The Decision Theater at ASU is a new facility using immersive visualization technology designed to combine scientific research at the university with policy decision making in the community. I document a case study in the use of 3-D immersive technology for water resource management in Arizona. Since the turn of the 20th century, natural hydrologic processes in the greater Phoenix region (Salt River Valley) have been shut down via the construction of dams, canals, wells, water treatment plants, and recharge facilities. Water from rivers that once naturally recharged the groundwater aquifer have thus been diverted while continuing groundwater outflow from wells has drawn the aquifer down hundreds of feet. MODFLOW is used to simulate groundwater response to the different water management decisions which impact the artificial and natural inflow and outflow. The East Valley Water Forum, a partnership of water providers east of Phoenix, used the 3-D capabilities of the Decision Theater to build visualizations of the East Salt River Valley groundwater system based on MODFLOW outputs to aid the design of a regional groundwater management plan. The resulting visualizations are now being integrated into policy decisions about long term water management. I address challenges in visualizing scientific information for policy making and highlight the roles of policy actors, specifically geologists, computer scientists, and political decision makers, involved in designing the visualizations. The results show that policy actors respond differently to the 3-D visualization techniques based on their experience, background, and objectives

  10. Business model change : Managerial roles and tactics in decision-making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van den Oever, Koen; Martin, Xavier; Baden-Fuller, Charles; Mangematin, Vincent

    2015-01-01

    We study the decision-making process behind business model change, focusing specifically on the tactics managers employ to gain support for such changes. We first argue for the prominent role of middle management in business model change, and second, we revisit the literature on issue selling and

  11. Licensing method for new nuclear power plant: A study on decision making modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ramli, N; Ohaga, E. O.; Jung, J. C. [KEPCO International Nuclear Graduate School, Ulsan (Korea, Republic of)

    2012-10-15

    This work provides a study on decision making modeling for a licensing method of a new nuclear power plant. SWOT analysis provides the licensing alternatives attributes, then the expectation from either COL or two step licensing method is decided by inputting the output from the Hurwitz mathematical model. From the analysis, COL shows the best candidate for both optimistic and pessimistic conditions.

  12. Decision-Making in Agent-Based Models of Migration: State of the Art and Challenges

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Klabunde, A.; Willekens, F.J.

    2016-01-01

    We review agent-based models (ABM) of human migration with respect to their decision-making rules. The most prominent behavioural theories used as decision rules are the random utility theory, as implemented in the discrete choice model, and the theory of planned behaviour. We identify the critical

  13. Practical Steps for Informing Literacy Instruction: A Diagnostic Decision-Making Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kibby, Michael W.

    This monograph presents a diagnostic decision-making model for reading, elementary, and special education teachers to use as a guide in assessing and evaluating students' reading abilities to design and provide more appropriate reading instruction. The model in the monograph gives an overall perspective or gestalt of the components and strategies…

  14. A Review of Contemporary Ethical Decision-Making Models for Mental Health Professionals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Francis, Perry C.

    2015-01-01

    Mental health professionals are faced with increasingly complex ethical decisions that are impacted by culture, personal and professional values, and the contexts in which they and their clients inhabit. This article presents the reasons for developing and implementing multiple ethical decision making models and reviews four models that address…

  15. Beyond dual-process models: A categorisation of processes underlying intuitive judgement and decision making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Glöckner, A.; Witteman, C.L.M.

    2010-01-01

    Intuitive-automatic processes are crucial for making judgements and decisions. The fascinating complexity of these processes has attracted many decision researchers, prompting them to start investigating intuition empirically and to develop numerous models. Dual-process models assume a clear

  16. A Dual-Process Approach to Health Risk Decision Making: The Prototype Willingness Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerrard, Meg; Gibbons, Frederick X.; Houlihan, Amy E.; Stock, Michelle L.; Pomery, Elizabeth A.

    2008-01-01

    Although dual-process models in cognitive, personality, and social psychology have stimulated a large body of research about analytic and heuristic modes of decision making, these models have seldom been applied to the study of adolescent risk behaviors. In addition, the developmental course of these two kinds of information processing, and their…

  17. Opinion: The use of natural hazard modeling for decision making under uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    David E. Calkin; Mike Mentis

    2015-01-01

    Decision making to mitigate the effects of natural hazards is a complex undertaking fraught with uncertainty. Models to describe risks associated with natural hazards have proliferated in recent years. Concurrently, there is a growing body of work focused on developing best practices for natural hazard modeling and to create structured evaluation criteria for complex...

  18. Licensing method for new nuclear power plant: A study on decision making modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ramli, N; Ohaga, E. O.; Jung, J. C.

    2012-01-01

    This work provides a study on decision making modeling for a licensing method of a new nuclear power plant. SWOT analysis provides the licensing alternatives attributes, then the expectation from either COL or two step licensing method is decided by inputting the output from the Hurwitz mathematical model. From the analysis, COL shows the best candidate for both optimistic and pessimistic conditions

  19. A new computational account of cognitive control over reinforcement-based decision-making: Modeling of a probabilistic learning task.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zendehrouh, Sareh

    2015-11-01

    Recent work on decision-making field offers an account of dual-system theory for decision-making process. This theory holds that this process is conducted by two main controllers: a goal-directed system and a habitual system. In the reinforcement learning (RL) domain, the habitual behaviors are connected with model-free methods, in which appropriate actions are learned through trial-and-error experiences. However, goal-directed behaviors are associated with model-based methods of RL, in which actions are selected using a model of the environment. Studies on cognitive control also suggest that during processes like decision-making, some cortical and subcortical structures work in concert to monitor the consequences of decisions and to adjust control according to current task demands. Here a computational model is presented based on dual system theory and cognitive control perspective of decision-making. The proposed model is used to simulate human performance on a variant of probabilistic learning task. The basic proposal is that the brain implements a dual controller, while an accompanying monitoring system detects some kinds of conflict including a hypothetical cost-conflict one. The simulation results address existing theories about two event-related potentials, namely error related negativity (ERN) and feedback related negativity (FRN), and explore the best account of them. Based on the results, some testable predictions are also presented. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Does electronic clinical microbiology results reporting influence medical decision making: a pre- and post-interview study of medical specialists

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bloembergen Peter

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Clinicians view the accuracy of test results and the turnaround time as the two most important service aspects of the clinical microbiology laboratory. Because of the time needed for the culturing of infectious agents, final hardcopy culture results will often be available too late to have a significant impact on early antimicrobial therapy decisions, vital in infectious disease management. The clinical microbiologist therefore reports to the clinician clinically relevant preliminary results at any moment during the diagnostic process, mostly by telephone. Telephone reporting is error prone, however. Electronic reporting of culture results instead of reporting on paper may shorten the turnaround time and may ensure correct communication of results. The purpose of this study was to assess the impact of the implementation of electronic reporting of final microbiology results on medical decision making. Methods In a pre- and post-interview study using a semi-structured design we asked medical specialists in our hospital about their use and appreciation of clinical microbiology results reporting before and after the implementation of an electronic reporting system. Results Electronic reporting was highly appreciated by all interviewed clinicians. Major advantages were reduction of hardcopy handling and the possibility to review results in relation to other patient data. Use and meaning of microbiology reports differ significantly between medical specialties. Most clinicians need preliminary results for therapy decisions quickly. Therefore, after the implementation of electronic reporting, telephone consultation between clinician and microbiologist remained the key means of communication. Conclusions Overall, electronic reporting increased the workflow efficiency of the medical specialists, but did not have an impact on their decision-making.

  1. MODELLING OF DECISION MAKING OF UNMANNED AERIAL VEHICLE'S OPERATOR IN EMERGENCY SITUATIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Volodymyr Kharchenko

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: lack of recommendation action algorithm of UAV operator in emergency situations; decomposition of the process of decision making (DM by UAV’s Operator in emergency situations; development of the structure of distributed decision support system (DDSS for remotely piloted aircraft; development of a database of local decision support system (DSS operators Remotely Piloted Aircraft Systems (RPAS; working-out of models DM by UAV’s Operator. Methods: Algoritm of actions of UAV operator by Wald criterion, Laplace criterion, Hurwitz criterion. Results: The program "UAV_AS" that gives to UAV operator recommendations on how to act in case of emergency. Discussion: The article deals with the problem of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV flights for decision of different tasks in emergency situation. Based on statistical data it was analyzing the types of emergencies for unmanned aircraft. Defined sequence of actions UAV operator and in case of emergencies.

  2. Research on efficiency evaluation model of integrated energy system based on hybrid multi-attribute decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yan

    2017-05-25

    The efficiency evaluation model of integrated energy system, involving many influencing factors, and the attribute values are heterogeneous and non-deterministic, usually cannot give specific numerical or accurate probability distribution characteristics, making the final evaluation result deviation. According to the characteristics of the integrated energy system, a hybrid multi-attribute decision-making model is constructed. The evaluation model considers the decision maker's risk preference. In the evaluation of the efficiency of the integrated energy system, the evaluation value of some evaluation indexes is linguistic value, or the evaluation value of the evaluation experts is not consistent. These reasons lead to ambiguity in the decision information, usually in the form of uncertain linguistic values and numerical interval values. In this paper, the risk preference of decision maker is considered when constructing the evaluation model. Interval-valued multiple-attribute decision-making method and fuzzy linguistic multiple-attribute decision-making model are proposed. Finally, the mathematical model of efficiency evaluation of integrated energy system is constructed.

  3. Does electronic clinical microbiology results reporting influence medical decision making: a pre- and post-interview study of medical specialists.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bruins, Marjan J; Ruijs, Gijs J H M; Wolfhagen, Maurice J H M; Bloembergen, Peter; Aarts, Jos E C M

    2011-03-30

    Clinicians view the accuracy of test results and the turnaround time as the two most important service aspects of the clinical microbiology laboratory. Because of the time needed for the culturing of infectious agents, final hardcopy culture results will often be available too late to have a significant impact on early antimicrobial therapy decisions, vital in infectious disease management. The clinical microbiologist therefore reports to the clinician clinically relevant preliminary results at any moment during the diagnostic process, mostly by telephone. Telephone reporting is error prone, however. Electronic reporting of culture results instead of reporting on paper may shorten the turnaround time and may ensure correct communication of results. The purpose of this study was to assess the impact of the implementation of electronic reporting of final microbiology results on medical decision making. In a pre- and post-interview study using a semi-structured design we asked medical specialists in our hospital about their use and appreciation of clinical microbiology results reporting before and after the implementation of an electronic reporting system. Electronic reporting was highly appreciated by all interviewed clinicians. Major advantages were reduction of hardcopy handling and the possibility to review results in relation to other patient data. Use and meaning of microbiology reports differ significantly between medical specialties. Most clinicians need preliminary results for therapy decisions quickly. Therefore, after the implementation of electronic reporting, telephone consultation between clinician and microbiologist remained the key means of communication. Overall, electronic reporting increased the workflow efficiency of the medical specialists, but did not have an impact on their decision-making. © 2011 Bruins et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.

  4. Some results regarding the comparison of the Earth's atmospheric models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Šegan S.

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we examine air densities derived from our realization of aeronomic atmosphere models based on accelerometer measurements from satellites in a low Earth's orbit (LEO. Using the adapted algorithms we derive comparison parameters. The first results concerning the adjustment of the aeronomic models to the total-density model are given.

  5. Using interactive modeling tools to engage with, inform and empower decision making in local communities of landscape managers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Andreas Aagaard

    are now to an increasing extent used outside academic offices by consultants and officials engaged in direct dialogue or debate with local stakeholders. Models are entering the decision making space of local communities, challenging and informing local experience and expertise regarding the short......During the last decade digital modelling tools for environmental impact assessment have become increasingly interactive, agile and user-oriented. This has made it possible to implement models in situ, using them in live scenario situations with local stakeholders. As a result modelling tools...

  6. Driver's Behavior and Decision-Making Optimization Model in Mixed Traffic Environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaoyuan Wang

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Driving process is an information treating procedure going on unceasingly. It is very important for the research of traffic flow theory, to study on drivers' information processing pattern in mixed traffic environment. In this paper, bicycle is regarded as a kind of information source to vehicle drivers; the “conflict point method” is brought forward to analyze the influence of bicycles on driving behavior. The “conflict” is studied to be translated into a special kind of car-following or lane-changing process. Furthermore, the computer clocked scan step length is dropped to 0.1 s, in order to scan and analyze the dynamic (static information which influences driving behavior in a more exact way. The driver's decision-making process is described through information fusion based on duality contrast and fuzzy optimization theory. The model test and verification show that the simulation results with the “conflict point method” and the field data are consistent basically. It is feasible to imitate driving behavior and the driver information fusion process with the proposed methods. Decision-making optimized process can be described more accurately through computer precision clocked scan strategy. The study in this paper can provide the foundation for further research of multiresource information fusion process of driving behavior.

  7. Formal Process Modeling to Improve Human Decision-Making in Test and Evaluation Acoustic Range Control

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-09-01

    MODELING TO IMPROVE HUMAN DECISION-MAKING DURING TEST AND EVALUATION RANGE CONTROL by William Carlson September 2017 Thesis Advisor...MAKING DURING TEST AND EVALUATION RANGE CONTROL 5. FUNDING NUMBERS 6. AUTHOR(S) William Carlson 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES...evaluation (T&E) managers often control testing via heuristics (i.e., using experience and lessons learned from previous testing to modify existing

  8. Feasibility and acceptability of shared decision-making to promote alcohol behavior change among women Veterans: Results from focus groups.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abraham, Traci H; Wright, Patricia; White, Penny; Booth, Brenda M; Cucciare, Michael A

    2017-01-01

    Although rates of unhealthy drinking are high among women Veterans with mental health comorbidities, most women Veterans with mental comorbidities who present to primary care with unhealthy drinking do not receive alcohol-related care. Barriers to alcohol-related treatment could be reduced through patient-centered approaches to care, such as shared decision-making. We assessed the feasibility and acceptability of a telephone-delivered shared decision-making intervention for promoting alcohol behavior change in women Veterans with unhealthy drinking and co-morbid depression and/or probable post-traumatic stress disorder. We used 3, 2-hour focus group discussions with 19 women Veterans to identify barriers and solicit recommendations for using the intervention with women Veterans who present to primary care with unhealthy drinking and mental health comorbidities. Transcripts from the focus groups were qualitatively analyzed using template analysis. Although participants perceived that the intervention was feasible and acceptable for the targeted patient population, they identified the treatment delivery modality, length of telephone sessions, and some of the option grid content as potential barriers. Facilitators included strategies for enhancing the telephone-delivered shared decision-making sessions and diversifying the treatment options contained in the option grids. Focus group feedback resulted in preliminary adaptations to the intervention that are mindful of women Veterans' individual preferences for care and realistic in the everyday context of their busy lives.

  9. Analysis and Management of Animal Populations: Modeling, Estimation and Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, B.K.; Nichols, J.D.; Conroy, M.J.

    2002-01-01

    This book deals with the processes involved in making informed decisions about the management of animal populations. It covers the modeling of population responses to management actions, the estimation of quantities needed in the modeling effort, and the application of these estimates and models to the development of sound management decisions. The book synthesizes and integrates in a single volume the methods associated with these themes, as they apply to ecological assessment and conservation of animal populations. KEY FEATURES * Integrates population modeling, parameter estimation and * decision-theoretic approaches to management in a single, cohesive framework * Provides authoritative, state-of-the-art descriptions of quantitative * approaches to modeling, estimation and decision-making * Emphasizes the role of mathematical modeling in the conduct of science * and management * Utilizes a unifying biological context, consistent mathematical notation, * and numerous biological examples

  10. MODELING AND DECISION MAKING DURING THE CIVIL AVIATION INDUSTRY-SPECIFIC EDUCATIONAL CLUSTER MODERNIZATION PROCESS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. S. Borzova

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The article deals with the civil aviation industry educational cluster which consists of the civil aviation educational establishments of the Russian Federation, comprising structural divisions (constituents that provide specialist training for both higher and secondary vocational educational programs. Innovative requirements for aircraft maintenance specialist training challenge for a complex of modernization measures intended to provide educational system compliance with the needs of the aviation enterprises. In order to formulate the mentioned measures, the research separates basic structural components of the educational cluster, which change within the modernization process under the influence of the external environment. The article suggests the hierarchical model of the educational cluster modernization process management. Basing on the expert monitoring assessment principles, the educational establishment structural-functional model representing the hierarchical relations of the industry educational cluster objects is developed. Considering that these relations elements interact ambiguously which results in the system properties uncertainty, the research demonstrates the need to create an algorithm for the educational system integral quality assessment system. On the grounds of integral assessment comparative analyses for both the functioning and modernization modes, the work suggests the decision-making mechanism for the measures to be taken. A conclusion is made that the model-based approach allows to choose the best option among the modernization measures (synchronized with the current functioning and at the same time providing civil aviation educational cluster innovative development step-by-step for a certain calendar period.

  11. Verification of aseismic design model by using experimental results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mizuno, N.; Sugiyama, N.; Suzuki, T.; Shibata, Y.; Miura, K.; Miyagawa, N.

    1985-01-01

    A lattice model is applied as an analysis model for an aseismic design of the Hamaoka nuclear reactor building. With object to verify an availability of this design model, two reinforced concrete blocks are constructed on the ground and the forced vibration tests are carried out. The test results are well followed by simulation analysis using the lattice model. Damping value of the ground obtained from the test is more conservative than the design value. (orig.)

  12. An integrated, ethically driven environmental model of clinical decision making in emergency settings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolf, Lisa

    2013-02-01

    To explore the relationship between multiple variables within a model of critical thinking and moral reasoning. A quantitative descriptive correlational design using a purposive sample of 200 emergency nurses. Measured variables were accuracy in clinical decision-making, moral reasoning, perceived care environment, and demographics. Analysis was by bivariate correlation using Pearson's product-moment correlation coefficients, chi square and multiple linear regression analysis. The elements as identified in the integrated ethically-driven environmental model of clinical decision-making (IEDEM-CD) corrected depict moral reasoning and environment of care as factors significantly affecting accuracy in decision-making. The integrated, ethically driven environmental model of clinical decision making is a framework useful for predicting clinical decision making accuracy for emergency nurses in practice, with further implications in education, research and policy. A diagnostic and therapeutic framework for identifying and remediating individual and environmental challenges to accurate clinical decision making. © 2012, The Author. International Journal of Nursing Knowledge © 2012, NANDA International.

  13. Toward a Model of Human Information Processing for Decision-Making and Skill Acquisition in Laparoscopic Colorectal Surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, Eoin J; McMahon, Muireann; Walsh, Michael T; Coffey, J Calvin; O Sullivan, Leonard

    2017-10-03

    To create a human information-processing model for laparoscopic surgery based on already established literature and primary research to enhance laparoscopic surgical education in this context. We reviewed the literature for information-processing models most relevant to laparoscopic surgery. Our review highlighted the necessity for a model that accounts for dynamic environments, perception, allocation of attention resources between the actions of both hands of an operator, and skill acquisition and retention. The results of the literature review were augmented through intraoperative observations of 7 colorectal surgical procedures, supported by laparoscopic video analysis of 12 colorectal procedures. The Wickens human information-processing model was selected as the most relevant theoretical model to which we make adaptions for this specific application. We expanded the perception subsystem of the model to involve all aspects of perception during laparoscopic surgery. We extended the decision-making system to include dynamic decision-making to account for case/patient-specific and surgeon-specific deviations. The response subsystem now includes dual-task performance and nontechnical skills, such as intraoperative communication. The memory subsystem is expanded to include skill acquisition and retention. Surgical decision-making during laparoscopic surgery is the result of a highly complex series of processes influenced not only by the operator's knowledge, but also patient anatomy and interaction with the surgical team. Newer developments in simulation-based education must focus on the theoretically supported elements and events that underpin skill acquisition and affect the cognitive abilities of novice surgeons. The proposed human information-processing model builds on established literature regarding information processing, accounting for a dynamic environment of laparoscopic surgery. This revised model may be used as a foundation for a model describing robotic

  14. Water Quality and Quantity Modeling for Hydrologic and Policy Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rubiano, J.; Giron, E.; Quintero, M.; O'Brien, R.

    2004-12-01

    This paper presents the results of a research project that elucidate the excesses of nitrogen and phosphorous using a spatial-temporal modeling approach. The project uses the approach of integrating biophysical and socio-economic knowledge to offer sound solution to multiple stakeholders within a watershed context. The aim is to promote rural development and solve environmental conflicts by focusing on the internalization of externalities derived from watershed management, triggering the transference of funding from urban to rural populations, making the city invest in environmental goods or services offered by rural environments. The integrated modeling is focused towards identifying causal relationships between land use and management on the one hand, and water quantity/quality and sedimentation downstream on the other. Estimation of the amount of contaminated sediments transported in the study area and its impact is also studied here. The soil runoff information within the study area is obtained considering the characteristics of erosion using a MUSLE model as a sub-model of SWAT model. Using regression analysis, mathematical relationships between rainfall and surface runoff and between land use or management practices and the measured nitrate and phosphate load are established. The methodology first integrates most of the key spatial information available for the site to facilitate envisioning different land use scenarios and their impacts upon water resources. Subsequently, selected alternatives scenarios regarding the identified externalities are analyzed using optimization models. Opportunities for and constraints to promoting co-operation among users are exposed with the aid of economic games in which more sustainable land use or management alternatives are suggested. Strategic alliances and collective action are promoted in order to implement those alternatives that are environmentally sound and economically feasible. Such options are supported by co

  15. Transforming Patient-Centered Care: Development of the Evidence Informed Decision Making through Engagement Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Jennifer E; Titler, Marita G; Kane Low, Lisa; Dalton, Vanessa K; Sampselle, Carolyn M

    2015-01-01

    In response to the passage of the Affordable Care Act in the United States, clinicians and researchers are critically evaluating methods to engage patients in implementing evidence-based care to improve health outcomes. However, most models on implementation only target clinicians or health systems as the adopters of evidence. Patients are largely ignored in these models. A new implementation model that captures the complex but important role of patients in the uptake of evidence may be a critical missing link. Through a process of theory evaluation and development, we explore patient-centered concepts (patient activation and shared decision making) within an implementation model by mapping qualitative data from an elective induction of labor study to assess the model's ability to capture these key concepts. The process demonstrated that a new, patient-centered model for implementation is needed. In response, the Evidence Informed Decision Making through Engagement Model is presented. We conclude that, by fully integrating women into an implementation model, outcomes that are important to both the clinician and patient will improve. In the interest of providing evidence-based care to women during pregnancy and childbirth, it is essential that care is patient centered. The inclusion of concepts discussed in this article has the potential to extend beyond maternity care and influence other clinical areas. Utilizing the newly developed Evidence Informed Decision Making through Engagement Model provides a framework for utilizing evidence and translating it into practice while acknowledging the important role that women have in the process. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  16. [Consensus conferences in Israel--a collaborative model for national policy making].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tal, Orna; Oberlander, Shira; Siebzehner, Miri I

    2014-07-01

    The determination of an integrated national policy on controversial issues is a challenge for health systems worldwide. A common method to reach agreements for national policies in different countries throughout the world is group discussion that involves all stakeholders. A structured model of discussion on medical technologies started in the 1970s, mostly in North America, spreading to Europe and in the last decade also crossed borders to India, South America and Israel. Public discussion in the format of a consensus conference is a complex process that includes a thorough literature review for technology assessment, combining academic information using a technique of close consultation with experts, extensive panel discussion and dialogue with representatives of the public. At the end of the process a broad consensus is determined facilitating national-level policy implementation. The multiple factors involved, the issues addressed, the nature of the health system where the intended results will be applied, as well as political and social characteristics, produce variations among different countries. Therefore, this process requires flexibility in adjusting the classic model according to the awakening needs. The advantages of this method include encouraging the appropriate utilization of existing technologies, contemporary assessment by leading experts, aligning between all involved parties, public sharing and more. The initial model of the consensus conference was implemented in an orderly, systematic, structured process which allowed broad discussion, and many factors for thorough preparation. The disadvantages are its complexity, length and cost. In order to cope with the dynamics of the health system in israel, forcing policymakers to make decisions in real time, parts of the model were adjusted to address the issues arising in the system. Hence, a new process was developed--a derivative of the original Israeli model, with an emphasis on professional reviews

  17. Cloud Geospatial Analysis Tools for Global-Scale Comparisons of Population Models for Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hancher, M.; Lieber, A.; Scott, L.

    2017-12-01

    The volume of satellite and other Earth data is growing rapidly. Combined with information about where people are, these data can inform decisions in a range of areas including food and water security, disease and disaster risk management, biodiversity, and climate adaptation. Google's platform for planetary-scale geospatial data analysis, Earth Engine, grants access to petabytes of continually updating Earth data, programming interfaces for analyzing the data without the need to download and manage it, and mechanisms for sharing the analyses and publishing results for data-driven decision making. In addition to data about the planet, data about the human planet - population, settlement and urban models - are now available for global scale analysis. The Earth Engine APIs enable these data to be joined, combined or visualized with economic or environmental indicators such as nighttime lights trends, global surface water, or climate projections, in the browser without the need to download anything. We will present our newly developed application intended to serve as a resource for government agencies, disaster response and public health programs, or other consumers of these data to quickly visualize the different population models, and compare them to ground truth tabular data to determine which model suits their immediate needs. Users can further tap into the power of Earth Engine and other Google technologies to perform a range of analysis from simple statistics in custom regions to more complex machine learning models. We will highlight case studies in which organizations around the world have used Earth Engine to combine population data with multiple other sources of data, such as water resources and roads data, over deep stacks of temporal imagery to model disease risk and accessibility to inform decisions.

  18. Steel Containment Vessel Model Test: Results and Evaluation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Costello, J.F.; Hashimote, T.; Hessheimer, M.F.; Luk, V.K.

    1999-03-01

    A high pressure test of the steel containment vessel (SCV) model was conducted on December 11-12, 1996 at Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM, USA. The test model is a mixed-scaled model (1:10 in geometry and 1:4 in shell thickness) of an improved Mark II boiling water reactor (BWR) containment. A concentric steel contact structure (CS), installed over the SCV model and separated at a nominally uniform distance from it, provided a simplified representation of a reactor shield building in the actual plant. The SCV model and contact structure were instrumented with strain gages and displacement transducers to record the deformation behavior of the SCV model during the high pressure test. This paper summarizes the conduct and the results of the high pressure test and discusses the posttest metallurgical evaluation results on specimens removed from the SCV model.

  19. Challenges of implementing collaborative models of decision making with trans-identified patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dewey, Jodie M

    2015-10-01

    Factors health providers face during the doctor-patient encounter both impede and assist the development of collaborative models of treatment. I investigated decision making among medical and therapeutic professionals who work with trans-identified patients to understand factors that might impede or facilitate the adoption of the collaborative decision-making model in their clinical work. Following a grounded theory approach, I collected and analysed data from semi-structured interviews with 10 U.S. physicians and 10 U.S. mental health professionals. Doctors and therapists often desire collaboration with their patients but experience dilemmas in treating the trans-identified patients. Dilemmas include lack of formal education, little to no institutional support and inconsistent understanding and application of the main documents used by professionals treating trans-patients. Providers face considerable risk in providing unconventional treatments due to the lack of institutional and academic support relating to the treatment for trans-people, and the varied interpretation and application of the diagnostic and treatment documents used in treating trans-people. To address this risk, the relationship with the patient becomes crucial. However, trust, a component required for collaboration, is thwarted when the patients feel obliged to present in ways aligned with these documents in order to receive desired treatments. When trust cannot be established, medical and mental health providers can and do delay or deny treatments, resulting in the imbalance of power between patient and provider. The documents created to assist in treatment actually thwart professional desire to work collaboratively with patients. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  20. A model of human decision making in multiple process monitoring situations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greenstein, J. S.; Rouse, W. B.

    1982-01-01

    Human decision making in multiple process monitoring situations is considered. It is proposed that human decision making in many multiple process monitoring situations can be modeled in terms of the human's detection of process related events and his allocation of attention among processes once he feels event have occurred. A mathematical model of human event detection and attention allocation performance in multiple process monitoring situations is developed. An assumption made in developing the model is that, in attempting to detect events, the human generates estimates of the probabilities that events have occurred. An elementary pattern recognition technique, discriminant analysis, is used to model the human's generation of these probability estimates. The performance of the model is compared to that of four subjects in a multiple process monitoring situation requiring allocation of attention among processes.

  1. Identifiability Results for Several Classes of Linear Compartment Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meshkat, Nicolette; Sullivant, Seth; Eisenberg, Marisa

    2015-08-01

    Identifiability concerns finding which unknown parameters of a model can be estimated, uniquely or otherwise, from given input-output data. If some subset of the parameters of a model cannot be determined given input-output data, then we say the model is unidentifiable. In this work, we study linear compartment models, which are a class of biological models commonly used in pharmacokinetics, physiology, and ecology. In past work, we used commutative algebra and graph theory to identify a class of linear compartment models that we call identifiable cycle models, which are unidentifiable but have the simplest possible identifiable functions (so-called monomial cycles). Here we show how to modify identifiable cycle models by adding inputs, adding outputs, or removing leaks, in such a way that we obtain an identifiable model. We also prove a constructive result on how to combine identifiable models, each corresponding to strongly connected graphs, into a larger identifiable model. We apply these theoretical results to several real-world biological models from physiology, cell biology, and ecology.

  2. A system-of-systems modeling methodology for strategic general aviation design decision-making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Won, Henry Thome

    General aviation has long been studied as a means of providing an on-demand "personal air vehicle" that bypasses the traffic at major commercial hubs. This thesis continues this research through development of a system of systems modeling methodology applicable to the selection of synergistic product concepts, market segments, and business models. From the perspective of the conceptual design engineer, the design and selection of future general aviation aircraft is complicated by the definition of constraints and requirements, and the tradeoffs among performance and cost aspects. Qualitative problem definition methods have been utilized, although their accuracy in determining specific requirement and metric values is uncertain. In industry, customers are surveyed, and business plans are created through a lengthy, iterative process. In recent years, techniques have developed for predicting the characteristics of US travel demand based on travel mode attributes, such as door-to-door time and ticket price. As of yet, these models treat the contributing systems---aircraft manufacturers and service providers---as independently variable assumptions. In this research, a methodology is developed which seeks to build a strategic design decision making environment through the construction of a system of systems model. The demonstrated implementation brings together models of the aircraft and manufacturer, the service provider, and most importantly the travel demand. Thus represented is the behavior of the consumers and the reactive behavior of the suppliers---the manufacturers and transportation service providers---in a common modeling framework. The results indicate an ability to guide the design process---specifically the selection of design requirements---through the optimization of "capability" metrics. Additionally, results indicate the ability to find synergetic solutions, that is solutions in which two systems might collaborate to achieve a better result than acting

  3. Decision-making in healthcare: a practical application of partial least square path modelling to coverage of newborn screening programmes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fischer Katharina E

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Decision-making in healthcare is complex. Research on coverage decision-making has focused on comparative studies for several countries, statistical analyses for single decision-makers, the decision outcome and appraisal criteria. Accounting for decision processes extends the complexity, as they are multidimensional and process elements need to be regarded as latent constructs (composites that are not observed directly. The objective of this study was to present a practical application of partial least square path modelling (PLS-PM to evaluate how it offers a method for empirical analysis of decision-making in healthcare. Methods Empirical approaches that applied PLS-PM to decision-making in healthcare were identified through a systematic literature search. PLS-PM was used as an estimation technique for a structural equation model that specified hypotheses between the components of decision processes and the reasonableness of decision-making in terms of medical, economic and other ethical criteria. The model was estimated for a sample of 55 coverage decisions on the extension of newborn screening programmes in Europe. Results were evaluated by standard reliability and validity measures for PLS-PM. Results After modification by dropping two indicators that showed poor measures in the measurement models’ quality assessment and were not meaningful for newborn screening, the structural equation model estimation produced plausible results. The presence of three influences was supported: the links between both stakeholder participation or transparency and the reasonableness of decision-making; and the effect of transparency on the degree of scientific rigour of assessment. Reliable and valid measurement models were obtained to describe the composites of ‘transparency’, ‘participation’, ‘scientific rigour’ and ‘reasonableness’. Conclusions The structural equation model was among the first applications of PLS-PM to

  4. Deep learning-based fine-grained car make/model classification for visual surveillance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gundogdu, Erhan; Parıldı, Enes Sinan; Solmaz, Berkan; Yücesoy, Veysel; Koç, Aykut

    2017-10-01

    Fine-grained object recognition is a potential computer vision problem that has been recently addressed by utilizing deep Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs). Nevertheless, the main disadvantage of classification methods relying on deep CNN models is the need for considerably large amount of data. In addition, there exists relatively less amount of annotated data for a real world application, such as the recognition of car models in a traffic surveillance system. To this end, we mainly concentrate on the classification of fine-grained car make and/or models for visual scenarios by the help of two different domains. First, a large-scale dataset including approximately 900K images is constructed from a website which includes fine-grained car models. According to their labels, a state-of-the-art CNN model is trained on the constructed dataset. The second domain that is dealt with is the set of images collected from a camera integrated to a traffic surveillance system. These images, which are over 260K, are gathered by a special license plate detection method on top of a motion detection algorithm. An appropriately selected size of the image is cropped from the region of interest provided by the detected license plate location. These sets of images and their provided labels for more than 30 classes are employed to fine-tune the CNN model which is already trained on the large scale dataset described above. To fine-tune the network, the last two fully-connected layers are randomly initialized and the remaining layers are fine-tuned in the second dataset. In this work, the transfer of a learned model on a large dataset to a smaller one has been successfully performed by utilizing both the limited annotated data of the traffic field and a large scale dataset with available annotations. Our experimental results both in the validation dataset and the real field show that the proposed methodology performs favorably against the training of the CNN model from scratch.

  5. Results of the Marine Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project, MISMIP

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Pattyn

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Predictions of marine ice-sheet behaviour require models that are able to robustly simulate grounding line migration. We present results of an intercomparison exercise for marine ice-sheet models. Verification is effected by comparison with approximate analytical solutions for flux across the grounding line using simplified geometrical configurations (no lateral variations, no effects of lateral buttressing. Unique steady state grounding line positions exist for ice sheets on a downward sloping bed, while hysteresis occurs across an overdeepened bed, and stable steady state grounding line positions only occur on the downward-sloping sections. Models based on the shallow ice approximation, which does not resolve extensional stresses, do not reproduce the approximate analytical results unless appropriate parameterizations for ice flux are imposed at the grounding line. For extensional-stress resolving "shelfy stream" models, differences between model results were mainly due to the choice of spatial discretization. Moving grid methods were found to be the most accurate at capturing grounding line evolution, since they track the grounding line explicitly. Adaptive mesh refinement can further improve accuracy, including fixed grid models that generally perform poorly at coarse resolution. Fixed grid models, with nested grid representations of the grounding line, are able to generate accurate steady state positions, but can be inaccurate over transients. Only one full-Stokes model was included in the intercomparison, and consequently the accuracy of shelfy stream models as approximations of full-Stokes models remains to be determined in detail, especially during transients.

  6. 3D radiation belt diffusion model results using new empirical models of whistler chorus and hiss

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cunningham, G.; Chen, Y.; Henderson, M. G.; Reeves, G. D.; Tu, W.

    2012-12-01

    3D diffusion codes model the energization, radial transport, and pitch angle scattering due to wave-particle interactions. Diffusion codes are powerful but are limited by the lack of knowledge of the spatial & temporal distribution of waves that drive the interactions for a specific event. We present results from the 3D DREAM model using diffusion coefficients driven by new, activity-dependent, statistical models of chorus and hiss waves. Most 3D codes parameterize the diffusion coefficients or wave amplitudes as functions of magnetic activity indices like Kp, AE, or Dst. These functional representations produce the average value of the wave intensities for a given level of magnetic activity; however, the variability of the wave population at a given activity level is lost with such a representation. Our 3D code makes use of the full sample distributions contained in a set of empirical wave databases (one database for each wave type, including plasmaspheric hiss, lower and upper hand chorus) that were recently produced by our team using CRRES and THEMIS observations. The wave databases store the full probability distribution of observed wave intensity binned by AE, MLT, MLAT and L*. In this presentation, we show results that make use of the wave intensity sample probability distributions for lower-band and upper-band chorus by sampling the distributions stochastically during a representative CRRES-era storm. The sampling of the wave intensity probability distributions produces a collection of possible evolutions of the phase space density, which quantifies the uncertainty in the model predictions caused by the uncertainty of the chorus wave amplitudes for a specific event. A significant issue is the determination of an appropriate model for the spatio-temporal correlations of the wave intensities, since the diffusion coefficients are computed as spatio-temporal averages of the waves over MLT, MLAT and L*. The spatiotemporal correlations cannot be inferred from the

  7. Results on the symmetries of integrable fermionic models on chains

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dolcini, F.; Montorsi, A.

    2001-01-01

    We investigate integrable fermionic models within the scheme of the graded quantum inverse scattering method, and prove that any symmetry imposed on the solution of the Yang-Baxter equation reflects on the constants of motion of the model; generalizations with respect to known results are discussed. This theorem is shown to be very effective when combined with the polynomial R-matrix technique (PRT): we apply both of them to the study of the extended Hubbard models, for which we find all the subcases enjoying several kinds of (super)symmetries. In particular, we derive a geometrical construction expressing any gl(2,1)-invariant model as a linear combination of EKS and U-supersymmetric models. Further, we use the PRT to obtain 32 integrable so(4)-invariant models. By joint use of the Sutherland's species technique and η-pairs construction we propose a general method to derive their physical features, and we provide some explicit results

  8. Decision making model design for antivirus software selection using Factor Analysis and Analytical Hierarchy Process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nurhayati Ai

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Virus spread increase significantly through the internet in 2017. One of the protection method is using antivirus software. The wide variety of antivirus software in the market tends to creating confusion among consumer. Selecting the right antivirus according to their needs has become difficult. This is the reason we conduct our research. We formulate a decision making model for antivirus software consumer. The model is constructed by using factor analysis and AHP method. First we spread questionnaires to consumer, then from those questionnaires we identified 16 variables that needs to be considered on selecting antivirus software. This 16 variables then divided into 5 factors by using factor analysis method in SPSS software. These five factors are security, performance, internal, time and capacity. To rank those factors we spread questionnaires to 6 IT expert then the data is analyzed using AHP method. The result is that performance factors gained the highest rank from all of the other factors. Thus, consumer can select antivirus software by judging the variables in the performance factors. Those variables are software loading speed, user friendly, no excessive memory use, thorough scanning, and scanning virus fast and accurately.

  9. Optimal Modeling of Wireless LANs: A Decision-Making Multiobjective Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tomás de Jesús Mateo Sanguino

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Communication infrastructure planning is a critical design task that typically requires handling complex concepts on networking aimed at optimizing performance and resources, thus demanding high analytical and problem-solving skills to engineers. To reduce this gap, this paper describes an optimization algorithm—based on evolutionary strategy—created as an aid for decision-making prior to the real deployment of wireless LANs. The developed algorithm allows automating the design process, traditionally handmade by network technicians, in order to save time and cost by improving the WLAN arrangement. To this end, we implemented a multiobjective genetic algorithm (MOGA with the purpose of meeting two simultaneous design objectives, namely, to minimize the number of APs while maximizing the coverage signal over a whole planning area. Such approach provides efficient and scalable solutions closer to the best network design, so that we integrated the developed algorithm into an engineering tool with the goal of modelling the behavior of WLANs in ICT infrastructures. Called WiFiSim, it allows the investigation of various complex issues concerning the design of IEEE 802.11-based WLANs, thereby facilitating design of the study and design and optimal deployment of wireless LANs through complete modelling software. As a result, we comparatively evaluated three target applications considering small, medium, and large scenarios with a previous approach developed, a monoobjective genetic algorithm.

  10. A feasibility study for decision-making support of a radioactive contamination model in an urban environment (METRO-K)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hwang, Won Tae; Han, Moon Hee; Jeong, Hyo Joon; Kim, Eun Han; Lee, Chang Woo

    2008-01-01

    A Korean urban contamination model METRO-K (Model for Estimates the Transient behavior of RadiOactive materials in the Korean urban environment), which is capable of calculating the exposure doses resulting from radioactive contamination in an urban environment, is taking part in a model testing program EMRAS (Environmental Modelling for RAdiation Safety) organized by the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency). For radioactive contamination scenarios of Pripyat districts and a hypothetical RDD (Radiological Dispersal Device), the predicted results using METRO-K were submitted to the EMRAS's urban contamination working group. In this paper, the predicted results for the contamination scenarios of a pripyat district were shown in case of both without remediation measures and with ones. Comparing with the predicted results of the models that have taken part in EMRAS program, a feasibility for decision-making support of METRO-K was investigated. As a predicted result of METRO-K, to take immediately remediation measures following a radioactive contamination, if possible, might be one of the best ways to reduce exposure dose. It was found that the discrepancies of predicted results among the models are resulted from 1) modeling approaches and applied parameter values, 2) exposure pathways which are considered in models, 3) assumptions of assessor such as contamination surfaces which might affect to an exposure receptor and their sizes, 4) parameter values which are related with remediation measures applied through literature survey. It was identified that a Korean urban contamination model METRO-K is a useful tool for decision-making support through the participation of EMRAS program

  11. An operational decision-making model for the cognitively sensing-thinking manager.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lynch, J J

    1992-11-01

    Whereas all managers face decision-making situations, not all managers discharge the decision-making process in the same manner. Individuals possess different personalities that influence how they gather and process information and subsequently make decisions. Research has reported a link between personality type and a preferred cognitive decision-making style. ST personalities prefer structured methods to resolve problems. For ST managers, a three-dimensional decision-making models is proposed. The model is based on the decision-making process initiated by Dewey and evolved by theorists and practitioners over time. Unique to the model is the institution of a second dimension of operational categories. Thus, the decision process is not conducted within a vacuum but within a context defined by the problem to be resolved. A further degree of thoroughness is achieved by unfolding the categorical dimension into sub-categories and conducting the decision-making process at that level. Several additional managerial tools exist that are compatible with the ST cognitive style and that facilitate an effective and efficiency decision process. What does this mean for the practicing health information manager? The manager's first step is to identify his or her personality type. The popularity of the MBTI as an organizational and career counseling tool has received wide acceptance across industries, including health care. The MBTI can be obtained, administered, scored, and interpreted only by trained personnel. Such individuals may be found in human resource and staff development departments; career centers and seminars; and vocational-technical schools, community colleges, and universities.

  12. Making the most of what we have: application of extrapolation approaches in wildlife transfer models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Beresford, Nicholas A.; Barnett, Catherine L.; Wells, Claire [NERC Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Lancaster Environment Center, Library Av., Bailrigg, Lancaster, LA1 4AP (United Kingdom); School of Environment and Life Sciences, University of Salford, Manchester, M4 4WT (United Kingdom); Wood, Michael D. [School of Environment and Life Sciences, University of Salford, Manchester, M4 4WT (United Kingdom); Vives i Batlle, Jordi [Belgian Nuclear Research Centre, Boeretang 200, 2400 Mol (Belgium); Brown, Justin E.; Hosseini, Ali [Norwegian Radiation Protection Authority, P.O. Box 55, N-1332 Oesteraas (Norway); Yankovich, Tamara L. [International Atomic Energy Agency, Vienna International Centre, 1400, Vienna (Austria); Bradshaw, Clare [Department of Ecology, Environment and Plant Sciences, Stockholm University, SE-10691 (Sweden); Willey, Neil [Centre for Research in Biosciences, University of the West of England, Coldharbour Lane, Frenchay, Bristol BS16 1QY (United Kingdom)

    2014-07-01

    Radiological environmental protection models need to predict the transfer of many radionuclides to a large number of organisms. There has been considerable development of transfer (predominantly concentration ratio) databases over the last decade. However, in reality it is unlikely we will ever have empirical data for all the species-radionuclide combinations which may need to be included in assessments. To provide default values for a number of existing models/frameworks various extrapolation approaches have been suggested (e.g. using data for a similar organism or element). This paper presents recent developments in two such extrapolation approaches, namely phylogeny and allometry. An evaluation of how extrapolation approaches have performed and the potential application of Bayesian statistics to make best use of available data will also be given. Using a Residual Maximum Likelihood (REML) mixed-model regression we initially analysed a dataset comprising 597 entries for 53 freshwater fish species from 67 sites to investigate if phylogenetic variation in transfer could be identified. The REML analysis generated an estimated mean value for each species on a common scale after taking account of the effect of the inter-site variation. Using an independent dataset, we tested the hypothesis that the REML model outputs could be used to predict radionuclide activity concentrations in other species from the results of a species which had been sampled at a specific site. The outputs of the REML analysis accurately predicted {sup 137}Cs activity concentrations in different species of fish from 27 lakes. Although initially investigated as an extrapolation approach the output of this work is a potential alternative to the highly site dependent concentration ratio model. We are currently applying this approach to a wider range of organism types and different ecosystems. An initial analysis of these results will be presented. The application of allometric, or mass

  13. Impact of methodology on the results of economic evaluations of varicella vaccination programs: is it important for decision-making?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patrícia Coelho de Soárez

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available This study aims to review the literature on economic evaluation of childhood varicella vaccination programs and to discuss how heterogeneity in methodological aspects and estimation of parameters can affect the studies' results. After applying the inclusion criteria, 27 studies published from 1980 to 2008 were analyzed in relation to methodological differences. There was great heterogeneity in the perspective adopted, evaluation of indirect costs, type of model used, modeling of the effect on herpes zoster, and estimation of vaccine price and efficacy parameters. The factor with the greatest impact on results was the inclusion of indirect costs, followed by the perspective adopted and vaccine price. The choice of a particular methodological aspect or parameter affected the studies' results and conclusions. It is essential that authors present these choices transparently so that users of economic evaluations understand the implications of such choices and the direction in which the results of the analysis were conducted.

  14. Simulation and modeling efforts to support decision making in healthcare supply chain management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    AbuKhousa, Eman; Al-Jaroodi, Jameela; Lazarova-Molnar, Sanja; Mohamed, Nader

    2014-01-01

    Recently, most healthcare organizations focus their attention on reducing the cost of their supply chain management (SCM) by improving the decision making pertaining processes' efficiencies. The availability of products through healthcare SCM is often a matter of life or death to the patient; therefore, trial and error approaches are not an option in this environment. Simulation and modeling (SM) has been presented as an alternative approach for supply chain managers in healthcare organizations to test solutions and to support decision making processes associated with various SCM problems. This paper presents and analyzes past SM efforts to support decision making in healthcare SCM and identifies the key challenges associated with healthcare SCM modeling. We also present and discuss emerging technologies to meet these challenges.

  15. Simulation and Modeling Efforts to Support Decision Making in Healthcare Supply Chain Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eman AbuKhousa

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Recently, most healthcare organizations focus their attention on reducing the cost of their supply chain management (SCM by improving the decision making pertaining processes’ efficiencies. The availability of products through healthcare SCM is often a matter of life or death to the patient; therefore, trial and error approaches are not an option in this environment. Simulation and modeling (SM has been presented as an alternative approach for supply chain managers in healthcare organizations to test solutions and to support decision making processes associated with various SCM problems. This paper presents and analyzes past SM efforts to support decision making in healthcare SCM and identifies the key challenges associated with healthcare SCM modeling. We also present and discuss emerging technologies to meet these challenges.

  16. Assessment of decision making models in sensitive technology: the nuclear energy case

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silva, Eduardo Ramos Ferreira da

    2007-01-01

    In this paper a bibliographic review is proceeded on the decision making processes approaching the sensitive technologies (the military and civilian uses as well), and the nuclear technology herself. It is made a correlation among the development of the nuclear technology and the decision making processes, showing that from 70 decade on, such processes are connected to the national security doctrines influenced by the Brazilian War College. So, every time that the national security is altered, so is the master line of the decision making process altered. In the Brazil case, the alteration appeared from the World War II up to the new proposals coming out from the Ministry of Defense are shown related to the nuclear technology. The existent models are analysed with a conclusion that such models are unveiling at the present situation of the moment, concerning to the nuclear technology

  17. Shared Decision-Making Models Acknowledging an Interprofessional Approach: A Theory Analysis to Inform Nursing Practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewis, Krystina B; Stacey, Dawn; Squires, Janet E; Carroll, Sandra

    2016-01-01

    Patient engagement in collaboration with health professionals is essential to deliver quality health care. A shared decision-making (SDM) approach requires that patients are involved in decisions regarding their health. SDM is expanding from the patient-physician dyad to incorporate an interprofessional perspective. Conceptual models can be used to better understand theoretical underpinnings for application in clinical practice. The aim of this article was to conduct a theory analysis of conceptual models using an interprofessional approach to SDM and discuss each model's relevance to nursing practice. Walker and Avant's theory analysis approach was used. Three conceptual models were eligible. For all models, the decision-making process was considered iterative. The development process was described for 1 model. All models were logical, parsimonious, and generalizable. One was supported by empirical testing. No model described how partnerships are enacted to achieve interprofessional SDM. Also, there was limited articulation as to how nurses' roles and contributions differ from other team members. This theory analysis highlights the need for a model that explains how partnerships among interprofessional team members are enacted to better understand the operationalization of interprofessional SDM. Implications for nursing practice at all system levels are offered and supported by the 3 models.

  18. Issues in Developing a Normative Descriptive Model for Dyadic Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serfaty, D.; Kleinman, D. L.

    1984-01-01

    Most research in modelling human information processing and decision making has been devoted to the case of the single human operator. In the present effort, concepts from the fields of organizational behavior, engineering psychology, team theory and mathematical modelling are merged in an attempt to consider first the case of two cooperating decisionmakers (the Dyad) in a multi-task environment. Rooted in the well-known Dynamic Decision Model (DDM), the normative descriptive approach brings basic cognitive and psychophysical characteristics inherent to human behavior into a team theoretic analytic framework. An experimental paradigm, involving teams in dynamic decision making tasks, is designed to produce the data with which to build the theoretical model.

  19. Decision-Making in Agent-Based Models of Migration: State of the Art and Challenges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klabunde, Anna; Willekens, Frans

    We review agent-based models (ABM) of human migration with respect to their decision-making rules. The most prominent behavioural theories used as decision rules are the random utility theory, as implemented in the discrete choice model, and the theory of planned behaviour. We identify the critical choices that must be made in developing an ABM, namely the modelling of decision processes and social networks. We also discuss two challenges that hamper the widespread use of ABM in the study of migration and, more broadly, demography and the social sciences: (a) the choice and the operationalisation of a behavioural theory (decision-making and social interaction) and (b) the selection of empirical evidence to validate the model. We offer advice on how these challenges might be overcome.

  20. Multi-crew Model Analytic Assessment of Landing Performance and Decision-making Demands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milgram, P.; Vanderwijngaart, R.; Veerbeek, H.; Bleeker, O. F.

    1984-01-01

    Some of the relative merits of the PROCRU approach to modelling multi-crew flight deck activity during approach to landing are discussed. On the basis of two realistic flight scenarios, the ability of the model to simulate different vectored approaches is demonstrated. A secondary exemplary analysis of a nominal and an accelerated final approach is performed, illustrating the potential of the expected net gain (ENGP) functions as a measure of decision-making load.

  1. Making Schools the Model for Healthier Environments Toolkit: What It Is

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robert Wood Johnson Foundation, 2012

    2012-01-01

    Healthy students perform better. Poor nutrition and inadequate physical activity can affect not only academic achievement, but also other factors such as absenteeism, classroom behavior, ability to concentrate, self-esteem, cognitive performance, and test scores. This toolkit provides information to help make schools the model for healthier…

  2. A modeling framework for supply chain simulation : opportunities for improved decision-making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Zee, D.J.; van der Vorst, J.G.A.J.

    Owing to its inherent modeling flexibility, simulation is often regarded as the proper means for supporting decision making on supply chain design. The ultimate success of supply chain simulation, however, is determined by a combination of the analyst's skills, the chain members' involvement, and

  3. A Modeling Framework for Supply Chain Simulation: Opportunities for Improved Decision Making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zee, van der D.J.; Vorst, van der J.G.A.J.

    2005-01-01

    Owing to its inherent modeling flexibility, simulation is often regarded as the proper means for supporting decision making on supply chain design. The ultimate success of supply chain simulation, however, is determined by a combination of the analyst's skills, the chain members' involvement, and

  4. A Model for Making Decisions about Ethical Dilemmas in Student Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Robert L.; Liu, Jin; Burgess, Yin

    2017-01-01

    In this mixed-methods study we investigated the development of a generalized ethics decision-making model that can be applied in considering ethical dilemmas related to student assessment. For the study, we developed five scenarios that describe ethical dilemmas associated with student assessment. Survey participants (i.e., educators) completed an…

  5. An Integrated Agent Model Addressing Situation Awareness and Functional State in Decision Making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoogendoorn, M.; van Lambalgen, R.M.; Treur, J.

    2011-01-01

    In this paper, an integrated agent model is introduced addressing mutually interacting Situation Awareness and Functional State dynamics in decision making. This shows how a human's functional state, more specific a human's exhaustion and power, can influence a human's situation awareness, and in

  6. Building a maintenance policy through a multi-criterion decision-making model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faghihinia, Elahe; Mollaverdi, Naser

    2012-08-01

    A major competitive advantage of production and service systems is establishing a proper maintenance policy. Therefore, maintenance managers should make maintenance decisions that best fit their systems. Multi-criterion decision-making methods can take into account a number of aspects associated with the competitiveness factors of a system. This paper presents a multi-criterion decision-aided maintenance model with three criteria that have more influence on decision making: reliability, maintenance cost, and maintenance downtime. The Bayesian approach has been applied to confront maintenance failure data shortage. Therefore, the model seeks to make the best compromise between these three criteria and establish replacement intervals using Preference Ranking Organization Method for Enrichment Evaluation (PROMETHEE II), integrating the Bayesian approach with regard to the preference of the decision maker to the problem. Finally, using a numerical application, the model has been illustrated, and for a visual realization and an illustrative sensitivity analysis, PROMETHEE GAIA (the visual interactive module) has been used. Use of PROMETHEE II and PROMETHEE GAIA has been made with Decision Lab software. A sensitivity analysis has been made to verify the robustness of certain parameters of the model.

  7. The Use of Touch in Counseling: An Ethical Decision-Making Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calmes, Stephanie A.; Piazza, Nick J.; Laux, John M.

    2013-01-01

    Although some counselors have advocated for the limited use of touch in counseling, others have argued that touch has no place within the counseling relationship. Despite the controversy, the use of touch has been shown to have a number of therapeutic benefits; however, there are few ethical decision-making models that are appropriate for…

  8. Rational misbehavior? Evaluating an integrated dual-process model of criminal decision making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Gelder, J.L.; de Vries, R.E.

    2014-01-01

    Objectives: Test the hypothesis that dispositional self-control and morality relate to criminal decision making via different mental processing modes, a 'hot' affective mode and a 'cool' cognitive one. Methods: Structural equation modeling in two studies under separate samples of undergraduate

  9. Modelling farmer decision-making: The case of the Dutch pork sector

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ambrosius, F.H.W.; Hofstede, G.J.; Bock, B.B.; Bokkers, E.A.M.; Beulens, A.J.M.

    2015-01-01

    Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to develop a framework that models farmers’ strategic decision making, taking into account that farmers adapt to institutional changes, given the social structure in which they are embedded. Design/methodology/approach – First, a theoretical framework was

  10. Interprofessionalism and shared decision-making in primary care: a stepwise approach towards a new model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Legare, F.; Stacey, D.; Pouliot, S.; Gauvin, F.P.; Desroches, S.; Kryworuchko, J.; Dunn, S.; Elwyn, G.; Frosch, D.; Gagnon, M.P.; Harrison, M.B.; Pluye, P.; Graham, I.D.

    2011-01-01

    Most shared decision-making (SDM) models within healthcare have been limited to the patient-physician dyad. As a first step towards promoting an interprofessional approach to SDM in primary care, this article reports how an interprofessional and interdisciplinary group developed and achieved

  11. Using the ACT-R architecture to specify 39 quantitative process models of decision making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marewski, Julian N.; Mehlhorn, Katja

    Hypotheses about decision processes are often formulated qualitatively and remain silent about the interplay of decision, memorial, and other cognitive processes. At the same time, existing decision models are specified at varying levels of detail, making it difficult to compare them. We provide a

  12. Using a Problem-Solving/Decision-Making Model to Evaluate School Lunch Salad Bars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Carolyn C.; Spruance, Lori Andersen; O'Malley, Keelia; Begalieva, Maya; Myers, Leann

    2017-01-01

    Purpose/Objectives: Evaluation of school-based activities is a high priority for school personnel. Nutrition activities, such as salad bars (SBs) incorporated into school lunchrooms, may increase children's consumption of low-energy, high fiber diets. The purpose of this paper is to describe a problem-solving/ decision-making model and demonstrate…

  13. Discrepancies between Normative and Descriptive Models of Decision Making and the Understanding/Acceptance Principle.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stanovich, Keith E.; West, Richard F.

    1999-01-01

    Examines tasks from the heuristics and biases literature in light of the understanding/acceptance principle of P. Slovic and A. Tversky (1974). Shows how the variation and instability of responses can be analyzed to yield inferences about why descriptive and normative models of human reasoning and decision making sometimes do not coincide.…

  14. Admissions Decision-Making Models: How U.S. Institutions of Higher Education Select Undergraduate Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rigol, Gretchen W.

    2003-01-01

    This report represents the third phase in the College Board Admissions Models Project. The first two phases of the project are summarized in two monographs: "Toward a Taxonomy of the Admissions Decision-Making Process" (1999) identifies nine different philosophical approaches to admissions and related selection criteria; and "Best…

  15. Forces for Failure and Genocide: The Plantation Model of Urban Educational Policy Making in St. Louis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Bruce Anthony

    2005-01-01

    This article is about policy decision making and racial politics in the St. Louis, Missouri, school district. From a research standpoint, traditional policymaking models are inadequate for explaining the evolution of school reform events in St. Louis over the past year. Teachers, principals, school staff, and parents perceive themselves to be…

  16. Relevance of behavioral and social models to the study of consumer energy decision making and behavior

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Burns, B.A.

    1980-11-01

    This report reviews social and behavioral science models and techniques for their possible use in understanding and predicting consumer energy decision making and behaviors. A number of models and techniques have been developed that address different aspects of the decision process, use different theoretical bases and approaches, and have been aimed at different audiences. Three major areas of discussion were selected: (1) models of adaptation to social change, (2) decision making and choice, and (3) diffusion of innovation. Within these three areas, the contributions of psychologists, sociologists, economists, marketing researchers, and others were reviewed. Five primary components of the models were identified and compared. The components are: (1) situational characteristics, (2) product characteristics, (3) individual characteristics, (4) social influences, and (5) the interaction or decision rules. The explicit use of behavioral and social science models in energy decision-making and behavior studies has been limited. Examples are given of a small number of energy studies which applied and tested existing models in studying the adoption of energy conservation behaviors and technologies, and solar technology.

  17. An Agent-Based Model of Farmer Decision Making in Jordan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Selby, Philip; Medellin-Azuara, Josue; Harou, Julien; Klassert, Christian; Yoon, Jim

    2016-04-01

    We describe an agent based hydro-economic model of groundwater irrigated agriculture in the Jordan Highlands. The model employs a Multi-Agent-Simulation (MAS) framework and is designed to evaluate direct and indirect outcomes of climate change scenarios and policy interventions on farmer decision making, including annual land use, groundwater use for irrigation, and water sales to a water tanker market. Land use and water use decisions are simulated for groups of farms grouped by location and their behavioural and economic similarities. Decreasing groundwater levels, and the associated increase in pumping costs, are important drivers for change within Jordan'S agricultural sector. We describe how this is considered by coupling of agricultural and groundwater models. The agricultural production model employs Positive Mathematical Programming (PMP), a method for calibrating agricultural production functions to observed planted areas. PMP has successfully been used with disaggregate models for policy analysis. We adapt the PMP approach to allow explicit evaluation of the impact of pumping costs, groundwater purchase fees and a water tanker market. The work demonstrates the applicability of agent-based agricultural decision making assessment in the Jordan Highlands and its integration with agricultural model calibration methods. The proposed approach is designed and implemented with software such that it could be used to evaluate a variety of physical and human influences on decision making in agricultural water management.

  18. An evidence-based patient-centered method makes the biopsychosocial model scientific.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Robert C; Fortin, Auguste H; Dwamena, Francesca; Frankel, Richard M

    2013-06-01

    To review the scientific status of the biopsychosocial (BPS) model and to propose a way to improve it. Engel's BPS model added patients' psychological and social health concerns to the highly successful biomedical model. He proposed that the BPS model could make medicine more scientific, but its use in education, clinical care, and, especially, research remains minimal. Many aver correctly that the present model cannot be defined in a consistent way for the individual patient, making it untestable and non-scientific. This stems from not obtaining relevant BPS data systematically, where one interviewer obtains the same information another would. Recent research by two of the authors has produced similar patient-centered interviewing methods that are repeatable and elicit just the relevant patient information needed to define the model at each visit. We propose that the field adopt these evidence-based methods as the standard for identifying the BPS model. Identifying a scientific BPS model in each patient with an agreed-upon, evidence-based patient-centered interviewing method can produce a quantum leap ahead in both research and teaching. A scientific BPS model can give us more confidence in being humanistic. In research, we can conduct more rigorous studies to inform better practices. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. A conceptual and computational model of moral decision making in human and artificial agents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wallach, Wendell; Franklin, Stan; Allen, Colin

    2010-07-01

    Recently, there has been a resurgence of interest in general, comprehensive models of human cognition. Such models aim to explain higher-order cognitive faculties, such as deliberation and planning. Given a computational representation, the validity of these models can be tested in computer simulations such as software agents or embodied robots. The push to implement computational models of this kind has created the field of artificial general intelligence (AGI). Moral decision making is arguably one of the most challenging tasks for computational approaches to higher-order cognition. The need for increasingly autonomous artificial agents to factor moral considerations into their choices and actions has given rise to another new field of inquiry variously known as Machine Morality, Machine Ethics, Roboethics, or Friendly AI. In this study, we discuss how LIDA, an AGI model of human cognition, can be adapted to model both affective and rational features of moral decision making. Using the LIDA model, we will demonstrate how moral decisions can be made in many domains using the same mechanisms that enable general decision making. Comprehensive models of human cognition typically aim for compatibility with recent research in the cognitive and neural sciences. Global workspace theory, proposed by the neuropsychologist Bernard Baars (1988), is a highly regarded model of human cognition that is currently being computationally instantiated in several software implementations. LIDA (Franklin, Baars, Ramamurthy, & Ventura, 2005) is one such computational implementation. LIDA is both a set of computational tools and an underlying model of human cognition, which provides mechanisms that are capable of explaining how an agent's selection of its next action arises from bottom-up collection of sensory data and top-down processes for making sense of its current situation. We will describe how the LIDA model helps integrate emotions into the human decision-making process, and we

  20. Effects of Methadone Maintenance Treatment on Decision-Making Processes in Heroin-Abusers: A Cognitive Modeling Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arash Khodadadi

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available A B S T R A C TIntroduction: Although decision-making processes have become a principal target of study among addiction researchers, few researches are published according to effects of different treatment methods on the cognitive processes underlying decision making up to now. Utilizing cognitive modeling method, in this paper we examine the effects of Methadone maintenance treatment (MMT on cognitive processes underlying decision-making disorders in heroin-abusers. Methods: For this purpose, for the first time, we use the balloon analog risk task (BART to assess the decision-making ability of heroin-abusers before and after treatment and compare it to the non heroin-dependent subjects. Results: Results demonstrate that heroin-abusers show more risky behavior than other groups. But, there is no difference between the performance of heroin-abusers after 6 months of MMT and control group. Modeling subjects’ behavior in BART reveals that poor performance in heroin-abusers is due to reward-dependency and insensitivity to evaluation. Discussion: Results show that 6 months of MMT decreases reward-dependency and increases sensitivity to evaluation.

  1. Decision Making in Reference to Model of Marketing Predictive Analytics – Theory and Practice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Piotr Tarka

    2014-03-01

    understand the inner working of the model. Originality: Authors describe the importance of analytics which enhance the decisions that the company makes as it executes strategies and plans, so that the company can be more effective and achieve better results. The key factor that enables to execute marketing strategies accurately and build competitive advantage in the future includes predictive modeling. The ability to predict probable futures allows us to shape the future, rather than merely survive whatever it brings.

  2. Using Covert Response Activation to Test Latent Assumptions of Formal Decision-Making Models in Humans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Servant, Mathieu; White, Corey; Montagnini, Anna; Burle, Borís

    2015-07-15

    Most decisions that we make build upon multiple streams of sensory evidence and control mechanisms are needed to filter out irrelevant information. Sequential sampling models of perceptual decision making have recently been enriched by attentional mechanisms that weight sensory evidence in a dynamic and goal-directed way. However, the framework retains the longstanding hypothesis that motor activity is engaged only once a decision threshold is reached. To probe latent assumptions of these models, neurophysiological indices are needed. Therefore, we collected behavioral and EMG data in the flanker task, a standard paradigm to investigate decisions about relevance. Although the models captured response time distributions and accuracy data, EMG analyses of response agonist muscles challenged the assumption of independence between decision and motor processes. Those analyses revealed covert incorrect EMG activity ("partial error") in a fraction of trials in which the correct response was finally given, providing intermediate states of evidence accumulation and response activation at the single-trial level. We extended the models by allowing motor activity to occur before a commitment to a choice and demonstrated that the proposed framework captured the rate, latency, and EMG surface of partial errors, along with the speed of the correction process. In return, EMG data provided strong constraints to discriminate between competing models that made similar behavioral predictions. Our study opens new theoretical and methodological avenues for understanding the links among decision making, cognitive control, and motor execution in humans. Sequential sampling models of perceptual decision making assume that sensory information is accumulated until a criterion quantity of evidence is obtained, from where the decision terminates in a choice and motor activity is engaged. The very existence of covert incorrect EMG activity ("partial error") during the evidence accumulation

  3. Extending the team component of the Latimer ethical decision-making model for palliative care

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Purkis ME

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Mary Ellen Purkis1, Elizabeth Borycki1,2, Craig Kuziemsky3, Fraser Black4, Denise Cloutier-Fisher5, Lee Ann Fox6, Patricia MacKenzie7, Ann Syme1,8, Coby Tschanz1,41School of Nursing, 2School of Health Information Science, University of Victoria, Victoria, British Columbia; 3Telfer School of Management, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Ontario; 4Victoria Hospice Society, Victoria, British Columbia; 5Department of Geography, University of Victoria, Victoria, British Columbia; 6Kingston General Hospital, Kingston, Ontario; 7School of Social Work, University of Victoria, Victoria, British Columbia; 8British Columbia Cancer Agency, Vancouver Island Centre, Victoria, British Columbia, CanadaBackground: Each year more than 240,000 Canadians die from terminal and chronic illnesses. It is estimated that 62% of those deaths require palliative care. Palliative care is a specialized domain of health professional team practice that requires discipline-specific knowledge, skills, judgment, and expertise in order to address patient hopes, wishes, symptoms, and suffering. With the emergence of palliative care as a specialized area of interdisciplinary practice, new practice models have also emerged, eg, the Latimer ethical decision-making model for palliative care. The purpose of this research was to undertake a descriptive ethnographic field study of palliative care team practices to understand better the interdisciplinary team communication and the issues that arise when members of different health professions work together as a team.Methods: Study data were collected by observing and videotaping palliative care team meetings. Data were then analyzed using direct content analysis.Results: The study findings substantiated many of the team practice concepts outlined in Latimer's model. Palliative care teams engage in a number of processes that address patient symptoms, suffering, hopes, and plans. However, several new findings also emerged from the data that were

  4. Dual Processing Model for Medical Decision-Making: An Extension to Diagnostic Testing.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Athanasios Tsalatsanis

    Full Text Available Dual Processing Theories (DPT assume that human cognition is governed by two distinct types of processes typically referred to as type 1 (intuitive and type 2 (deliberative. Based on DPT we have derived a Dual Processing Model (DPM to describe and explain therapeutic medical decision-making. The DPM model indicates that doctors decide to treat when treatment benefits outweigh its harms, which occurs when the probability of the disease is greater than the so called "threshold probability" at which treatment benefits are equal to treatment harms. Here we extend our work to include a wider class of decision problems that involve diagnostic testing. We illustrate applicability of the proposed model in a typical clinical scenario considering the management of a patient with prostate cancer. To that end, we calculate and compare two types of decision-thresholds: one that adheres to expected utility theory (EUT and the second according to DPM. Our results showed that the decisions to administer a diagnostic test could be better explained using the DPM threshold. This is because such decisions depend on objective evidence of test/treatment benefits and harms as well as type 1 cognition of benefits and harms, which are not considered under EUT. Given that type 1 processes are unique to each decision-maker, this means that the DPM threshold will vary among different individuals. We also showed that when type 1 processes exclusively dominate decisions, ordering a diagnostic test does not affect a decision; the decision is based on the assessment of benefits and harms of treatment. These findings could explain variations in the treatment and diagnostic patterns documented in today's clinical practice.

  5. Dual Processing Model for Medical Decision-Making: An Extension to Diagnostic Testing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsalatsanis, Athanasios; Hozo, Iztok; Kumar, Ambuj; Djulbegovic, Benjamin

    2015-01-01

    Dual Processing Theories (DPT) assume that human cognition is governed by two distinct types of processes typically referred to as type 1 (intuitive) and type 2 (deliberative). Based on DPT we have derived a Dual Processing Model (DPM) to describe and explain therapeutic medical decision-making. The DPM model indicates that doctors decide to treat when treatment benefits outweigh its harms, which occurs when the probability of the disease is greater than the so called "threshold probability" at which treatment benefits are equal to treatment harms. Here we extend our work to include a wider class of decision problems that involve diagnostic testing. We illustrate applicability of the proposed model in a typical clinical scenario considering the management of a patient with prostate cancer. To that end, we calculate and compare two types of decision-thresholds: one that adheres to expected utility theory (EUT) and the second according to DPM. Our results showed that the decisions to administer a diagnostic test could be better explained using the DPM threshold. This is because such decisions depend on objective evidence of test/treatment benefits and harms as well as type 1 cognition of benefits and harms, which are not considered under EUT. Given that type 1 processes are unique to each decision-maker, this means that the DPM threshold will vary among different individuals. We also showed that when type 1 processes exclusively dominate decisions, ordering a diagnostic test does not affect a decision; the decision is based on the assessment of benefits and harms of treatment. These findings could explain variations in the treatment and diagnostic patterns documented in today's clinical practice.

  6. Evaluating the role of behavioral factors and practical constraints in the performance of an agent-based model of farmer decision making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Malawska, Anna Katarzyna; Topping, Christopher John

    2016-01-01

    Farmer decision making models often focus on the behavioral assumptions in the representation of the decision making, applying bounded rationality theory to shift away from the generally criticized profit maximizer approach. Although complex on the behavioral side, such representations are usually...... to the real world data and to the results of the previous model stages, and included two model versions differing with assumptions on the farmers' rationality. Thus, we assessed the sensitivity of the model to its behavioral assumptions. The results indicated that contrary to expectations, implementation...... of the practical constraints improved the model performance more than the modifications in the behavioral assumptions....

  7. A Logistic Regression Based Auto Insurance Rate-Making Model Designed for the Insurance Rate Reform

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhengmin Duan

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Using a generalized linear model to determine the claim frequency of auto insurance is a key ingredient in non-life insurance research. Among auto insurance rate-making models, there are very few considering auto types. Therefore, in this paper we are proposing a model that takes auto types into account by making an innovative use of the auto burden index. Based on this model and data from a Chinese insurance company, we built a clustering model that classifies auto insurance rates into three risk levels. The claim frequency and the claim costs are fitted to select a better loss distribution. Then the Logistic Regression model is employed to fit the claim frequency, with the auto burden index considered. Three key findings can be concluded from our study. First, more than 80% of the autos with an auto burden index of 20 or higher belong to the highest risk level. Secondly, the claim frequency is better fitted using the Poisson distribution, however the claim cost is better fitted using the Gamma distribution. Lastly, based on the AIC criterion, the claim frequency is more adequately represented by models that consider the auto burden index than those do not. It is believed that insurance policy recommendations that are based on Generalized linear models (GLM can benefit from our findings.

  8. Optimizing medical device buying. Value analysis models can help you improve decision-making process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feldstein, Josh; Brooks, Elizabeth

    2010-05-01

    Value Analysis Models (VAMs) are a burgeoning analytical tool that can help materials managers, operating room managers, CFOs and others to make comparative value assessments before reaching a critical purchasing decision. Although relatively new to the hospital field, more and more manufacturers are supporting these initiatives to bring critical information to their customers and the health care industry. VAMs aren't designed to conclude that one product is better than another but to be a tool that can help make the product acquisition process much easier.

  9. Modelling in Primary School: Constructing Conceptual Models and Making Sense of Fractions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shahbari, Juhaina Awawdeh; Peled, Irit

    2017-01-01

    This article describes sixth-grade students' engagement in two model-eliciting activities offering students the opportunity to construct mathematical models. The findings show that students utilized their knowledge of fractions including conceptual and procedural knowledge in constructing mathematical models for the given situations. Some students…

  10. Applying a contingency model of strategic decision making to the implementation of smoking bans: a case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Willemsen, M C; Meijer, A; Jannink, M

    1999-08-01

    A model of strategic decision making was applied to study the implementation of worksite smoking policy. This model assumes there is no best way of implementing smoking policies, but that 'the best way' depends on how decision making fits specific content and context factors. A case study at Wehkamp, a mail-order company, is presented to illustrate the usefulness of this model to understand how organizations implement smoking policies. Interview data were collected from representatives of Wehkamp, and pre- and post-ban survey data were collected from employees. After having failed to solve the smoking problem in a more democratic way, Wehkamp's top management choose a highly confrontational and decentralized decision-making approach to implement a complete smoking ban. This resulted in an effective smoking ban, but was to some extent at the cost of employees' satisfaction with the policy and with how the policy was implemented. The choice of implementation approach was contingent upon specific content and context factors, such as managers' perception of the problem, leadership style and legislation. More case studies from different types of companies are needed to better understand how organizational factors affect decision making about smoking bans and other health promotion innovations.

  11. Review of Models of Consumer Behaviour and Influence of Emotions in the Decision Making

    OpenAIRE

    Mikel Alonso López

    2016-01-01

    In order to begin the process of studying the task of making consumer decisions, the main decision models must be analyzed. The objective of this task is to see if there is a presence of emotions in those models, and analyze how authors that have created them consider their impact in consumer choices. In this paper, the most important models of consumer behavior are analysed. This review is useful to consider an unproblematic background knowledge in the literature. The order that has been est...

  12. Customer Decision Making in Web Services with an Integrated P6 Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Zhaohao; Sun, Junqing; Meredith, Grant

    Customer decision making (CDM) is an indispensable factor for web services. This article examines CDM in web services with a novel P6 model, which consists of the 6 Ps: privacy, perception, propensity, preference, personalization and promised experience. This model integrates the existing 6 P elements of marketing mix as the system environment of CDM in web services. The new integrated P6 model deals with the inner world of the customer and incorporates what the customer think during the DM process. The proposed approach will facilitate the research and development of web services and decision support systems.

  13. Modeling, control and optimization of water systems systems engineering methods for control and decision making tasks

    CERN Document Server

    2016-01-01

    This book provides essential background knowledge on the development of model-based real-world solutions in the field of control and decision making for water systems. It presents system engineering methods for modelling surface water and groundwater resources as well as water transportation systems (rivers, channels and pipelines). The models in turn provide information on both the water quantity (flow rates, water levels) of surface water and groundwater and on water quality. In addition, methods for modelling and predicting water demand are described. Sample applications of the models are presented, such as a water allocation decision support system for semi-arid regions, a multiple-criteria control model for run-of-river hydropower plants, and a supply network simulation for public services.

  14. Fuzzy decision-making: a new method in model selection via various validity criteria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shakouri Ganjavi, H.; Nikravesh, K.

    2001-01-01

    Modeling is considered as the first step in scientific investigations. Several alternative models may be candida ted to express a phenomenon. Scientists use various criteria to select one model between the competing models. Based on the solution of a Fuzzy Decision-Making problem, this paper proposes a new method in model selection. The method enables the scientist to apply all desired validity criteria, systematically by defining a proper Possibility Distribution Function due to each criterion. Finally, minimization of a utility function composed of the Possibility Distribution Functions will determine the best selection. The method is illustrated through a modeling example for the A verage Daily Time Duration of Electrical Energy Consumption in Iran

  15. The Role of Hybrid Make-to-Stock (MTS) - Make-to-Order (MTO) and Economic Order Quantity (EOQ) Inventory Control Models in Food and Beverage Processing Industry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Najhan Mohd Nagib, Ahmad; Naufal Adnan, Ahmad; Ismail, Azianti; Halim, Nurul Hayati Abdul; Syuhadah Khusaini, Nurul

    2016-11-01

    The inventory model had been utilized since the early 1900s. The implementation of the inventory management model is generally to ensure that an organisation is able to fulfil customer's demand at the lowest possible cost to improve profitability. This paper focuses on reviewing previous published papers regarding inventory control model mainly in the food and beverage processing industry. The author discusses four inventory models, which are the make-to-stock (MTS), make-to-order (MTO), economic order quantity (EOQ), and hybrid of MTS-MTO models. The issues raised by the researchers on the above techniques as well as the elements need to be considered upon selection have been discussed in this paper. The main objective of the study is to highlight the important role played by these inventory control models in the food and beverage processing industry.

  16. Convergence models for cylindrical caverns and the resulting ground subsidence

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Haupt, W.; Sroka, A.; Schober, F.

    1983-02-01

    The authors studied the effects of different convergence characteristics on surface soil response for the case of narrow, cylindrical caverns. Maximum ground subsidence - a parameter of major importance in this type of cavern - was calculated for different convergence models. The models were established without considering the laws of rock mechanics and rheology. As a result, two limiting convergence models were obtained that describe an interval of expectation into which all other models fit. This means that ground movements over cylindrical caverns can be calculated ''on the safe side'', correlating the trough resulting on the surface with the convergence characterisitcs of the cavern. Among other applications, the method thus permits monitoring of caverns.

  17. MENINGKATKAN HASIL BELAJAR SISWA DENGAN MENGGUNAKAN MODEL MAKE A MATCH PADA MATA PELAJARAN PKN DI KELAS V SDN KARYAWANGI 2

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sediasih Sediasih

    2017-03-01

    is the written test. Learning outcomes may indicate that learning Indonesian maintaining the integrity of the country has increased. This research method using classroom action research. From the results it can be inferred when the use of models make a match can improve student learning outcomes in the material safeguarding the national integrity Indonesia on the subjects of citizenship education in grades 5 SDN Karyawangi 2. Keywords: learning outcomes, make a match, kewarganegaraan education.

  18. DIAMOND: A model of incremental decision making for resource acquisition by electric utilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gettings, M.; Hirst, E.; Yourstone, E.

    1991-02-01

    Uncertainty is a major issue facing electric utilities in planning and decision making. Substantial uncertainties exist concerning future load growth; the lifetimes and performances of existing power plants; the construction times, costs, and performances of new resources being brought online; and the regulatory and economic environment in which utilities operate. This report describes a utility planning model that focuses on frequent and incremental decisions. The key features of this model are its explicit treatment of uncertainty, frequent user interaction with the model, and the ability to change prior decisions. The primary strength of this model is its representation of the planning and decision-making environment that utility planners and executives face. Users interact with the model after every year or two of simulation, which provides an opportunity to modify past decisions as well as to make new decisions. For example, construction of a power plant can be started one year, and if circumstances change, the plant can be accelerated, mothballed, canceled, or continued as originally planned. Similarly, the marketing and financial incentives for demand-side management programs can be changed from year to year, reflecting the short lead time and small unit size of these resources. This frequent user interaction with the model, an operational game, should build greater understanding and insights among utility planners about the risks associated with different types of resources. The model is called DIAMOND, Decision Impact Assessment Model. In consists of four submodels: FUTURES, FORECAST, SIMULATION, and DECISION. It runs on any IBM-compatible PC and requires no special software or hardware. 19 refs., 13 figs., 15 tabs.

  19. Meteorological Uncertainty of atmospheric Dispersion model results (MUD)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Havskov Sørensen, Jens; Amstrup, Bjarne; Feddersen, Henrik

    . However, recent developments in numerical weather prediction (NWP) include probabilistic forecasting techniques, which can be utilised also for atmospheric dispersion models. The ensemble statistical methods developed and applied to NWP models aim at describing the inherent uncertainties......The MUD project addresses assessment of uncertainties of atmospheric dispersion model predictions, as well as optimum presentation to decision makers. Previously, it has not been possible to estimate such uncertainties quantitatively, but merely to calculate the 'most likely' dispersion scenario...... of the meteorological model results. These uncertainties stem from e.g. limits in meteorological obser-vations used to initialise meteorological forecast series. By perturbing the initial state of an NWP model run in agreement with the available observa-tional data, an ensemble of meteorological forecasts is produced...

  20. Meteorological Uncertainty of atmospheric Dispersion model results (MUD)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Havskov Sørensen, Jens; Amstrup, Bjarne; Feddersen, Henrik

    ’ dispersion scenario. However, recent developments in numerical weather prediction (NWP) include probabilistic forecasting techniques, which can be utilised also for long-range atmospheric dispersion models. The ensemble statistical methods developed and applied to NWP models aim at describing the inherent......The MUD project addresses assessment of uncertainties of atmospheric dispersion model predictions, as well as possibilities for optimum presentation to decision makers. Previously, it has not been possible to estimate such uncertainties quantitatively, but merely to calculate the ‘most likely...... uncertainties of the meteorological model results. These uncertainties stem from e.g. limits in meteorological observations used to initialise meteorological forecast series. By perturbing e.g. the initial state of an NWP model run in agreement with the available observational data, an ensemble...

  1. Making sense to modelers: Presenting UML class model differences in prose

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Störrle, Harald

    2013-01-01

    Understanding the difference between two models, such as different versions of a design, can be difficult. It is a commonly held belief in the model differencing community that the best way of presenting a model difference is by using graph or tree-based visualizations. We disagree and present an...... by a controlled experiment that tests three alternatives to presenting model differences. Our findings support our claim that the approach presented here is superior to EMF Compare.......Understanding the difference between two models, such as different versions of a design, can be difficult. It is a commonly held belief in the model differencing community that the best way of presenting a model difference is by using graph or tree-based visualizations. We disagree and present...... an alternative approach where sets of low-level model differences are abstracted into high-level model differences that lend themselves to being presented textually. This format is informed by an explorative survey to elicit the change descriptions modelers use themselves. Our approach is validated...

  2. An Intuitionistic Fuzzy Logic Models for Multicriteria Decision Making Under Uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jana, Biswajit; Mohanty, Sachi Nandan

    2017-04-01

    The purpose of this paper is to enhance the applicability of the fuzzy sets for developing mathematical models for decision making under uncertainty, In general a decision making process consist of four stages, namely collection of information from various sources, compile the information, execute the information and finally take the decision/action. Only fuzzy sets theory is capable to quantifying the linguistic expression to mathematical form in complex situation. Intuitionistic fuzzy set (IFSs) which reflects the fact that the degree of non membership is not always equal to one minus degree of membership. There may be some degree of hesitation. Thus, there are some situations where IFS theory provides a more meaningful and applicable to cope with imprecise information present for solving multiple criteria decision making problem. This paper emphasis on IFSs, which is help for solving real world problem in uncertainty situation.

  3. The 2013 European Seismic Hazard Model: key components and results

    OpenAIRE

    Jochen Woessner; Danciu Laurentiu; Domenico Giardini; Helen Crowley; Fabrice Cotton; G. Grünthal; Gianluca Valensise; Ronald Arvidsson; Roberto Basili; Mine Betül Demircioglu; Stefan Hiemer; Carlo Meletti; Roger W. Musson; Andrea N. Rovida; Karin Sesetyan

    2015-01-01

    The 2013 European Seismic Hazard Model (ESHM13) results from a community-based probabilistic seismic hazard assessment supported by the EU-FP7 project “Seismic Hazard Harmonization in Europe” (SHARE, 2009–2013). The ESHM13 is a consistent seismic hazard model for Europe and Turkey which overcomes the limitation of national borders and includes a through quantification of the uncertainties. It is the first completed regional effort contributing to the “Global Earthquake Model” initiative. It m...

  4. Decision-making for supplying energy projects: A four-dimensional model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith Stegen, Karen; Palovic, Martin

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Extant pipeline evaluation models offer insufficient supplier analysis tools. • We offer a four-dimensional decision-making tool to augment extant models. • Model employs four filters to help decision makers eliminate unsuitable suppliers. • Aids in prioritization of best courses of action for overcoming obstacles. • Case study of Nabucco pipeline shows Azerbaijan would have been best supply option. - Abstract: Importing states and regions employ myriad strategies to enhance energy security, from stockpiling to diversification to efficiency programs. As has occurred in recent years, importers can seek diversification by initiating pipeline and liquefied natural gas projects, meaning they may also have to select suppliers. However, most extant pipeline evaluation models erroneously assume suppliers are known and thus neglect supplier selection. We propose a decision-making tool to augment these older models: a systematic and replicable four-dimensional model to help policymakers and managers identify suitable suppliers and prioritize the best courses of action for overcoming obstacles. The first three dimensions—timeframe, supply availability and infrastructure constraints—filter out unsuitable suppliers. The fourth dimension then assesses the political, geopolitical and commercial stability of the remaining candidates. To demonstrate the model in practice, we assess the original Nabucco pipeline proposal, which was designed to transport gas from the Caspian and Middle East regions to Europe

  5. Hydroclimatology of the Nile: results from a regional climate model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. A. Mohamed

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the result of the regional coupled climatic and hydrologic model of the Nile Basin. For the first time the interaction between the climatic processes and the hydrological processes on the land surface have been fully coupled. The hydrological model is driven by the rainfall and the energy available for evaporation generated in the climate model, and the runoff generated in the catchment is again routed over the wetlands of the Nile to supply moisture for atmospheric feedback. The results obtained are quite satisfactory given the extremely low runoff coefficients in the catchment. The paper presents the validation results over the sub-basins: Blue Nile, White Nile, Atbara river, the Sudd swamps, and the Main Nile for the period 1995 to 2000. Observational datasets were used to evaluate the model results including radiation, precipitation, runoff and evaporation data. The evaporation data were derived from satellite images over a major part of the Upper Nile. Limitations in both the observational data and the model are discussed. It is concluded that the model provides a sound representation of the regional water cycle over the Nile. The sources of atmospheric moisture to the basin, and location of convergence/divergence fields could be accurately illustrated. The model is used to describe the regional water cycle in the Nile basin in terms of atmospheric fluxes, land surface fluxes and land surface-climate feedbacks. The monthly moisture recycling ratio (i.e. locally generated/total precipitation over the Nile varies between 8 and 14%, with an annual mean of 11%, which implies that 89% of the Nile water resources originates from outside the basin physical boundaries. The monthly precipitation efficiency varies between 12 and 53%, and the annual mean is 28%. The mean annual result of the Nile regional water cycle is compared to that of the Amazon and the Mississippi basins.

  6. Results of a model for premixed combustion oscillations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Janus, M.C.; Richards, G.A.

    1996-09-01

    Combustion oscillations are receiving renewed research interest due to increasing use of lean premix (LPM) combustion to gas turbines. A simple, nonlinear model for premixed combustion is described in this paper. The model was developed to help explain specific experimental observations and to provide guidance for development of active control schemes based on nonlinear concepts. The model can be used to quickly examine instability trends associated with changes in equivalence ratio, mass flow rate, geometry, ambient conditions, etc. The model represents the relevant processes occurring in a fuel nozzle and combustor which are analogous to current LPM turbine combustors. Conservation equations for the fuel nozzle and combustor are developed from simple control volume analysis, providing a set of ordinary differential equations that can be solved on a personal computer. Combustion is modeled as a stirred reactor, with a bimolecular reaction rate between fuel and air. A variety of numerical results and comparisons to experimental data are presented to demonstrate the utility of the model. Model results are used to understand the fundamental mechanisms which drive combustion oscillations, effects of inlet air temperature and nozzle geometry on instability, and effectiveness of open loop control schemes.

  7. Making Organisms Model Human Behavior: Situated Models in North-American Alcohol Research, 1950-onwards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leonelli, Sabina; Ankeny, Rachel A.; Nelson, Nicole C.; Ramsden, Edmund

    2014-01-01

    Argument We examine the criteria used to validate the use of nonhuman organisms in North-American alcohol addiction research from the 1950s to the present day. We argue that this field, where the similarities between behaviors in humans and non-humans are particularly difficult to assess, has addressed questions of model validity by transforming the situatedness of non-human organisms into an experimental tool. We demonstrate that model validity does not hinge on the standardization of one type of organism in isolation, as often the case with genetic model organisms. Rather, organisms are viewed as necessarily situated: they cannot be understood as a model for human behavior in isolation from their environmental conditions. Hence the environment itself is standardized as part of the modeling process; and model validity is assessed with reference to the environmental conditions under which organisms are studied. PMID:25233743

  8. Making organisms model human behavior: situated models in North-American alcohol research, since 1950.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ankeny, Rachel A; Leonelli, Sabina; Nelson, Nicole C; Ramsden, Edmund

    2014-09-01

    We examine the criteria used to validate the use of nonhuman organisms in North-American alcohol addiction research from the 1950s to the present day. We argue that this field, where the similarities between behaviors in humans and non-humans are particularly difficult to assess, has addressed questions of model validity by transforming the situatedness of non-human organisms into an experimental tool. We demonstrate that model validity does not hinge on the standardization of one type of organism in isolation, as often the case with genetic model organisms. Rather, organisms are viewed as necessarily situated: they cannot be understood as a model for human behavior in isolation from their environmental conditions. Hence the environment itself is standardized as part of the modeling process; and model validity is assessed with reference to the environmental conditions under which organisms are studied.

  9. Consumer Decision-Making Styles Extension to Trust-Based Product Comparison Site Usage Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Radoslaw Macik

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The paper describes an implementation of extended consumer decision-making styles concept in explaining consumer choices made in product comparison site environment in the context of trust-based information technology acceptance model. Previous research proved that trust-based acceptance model is useful in explaining purchase intention and anticipated satisfaction in product comparison site environment, as an example of online decision shopping aids. Trust to such aids is important in explaining their usage by consumers. The connections between consumer decision-making styles, product and sellers opinions usage, cognitive and affective trust toward online product comparison site, as well as choice outcomes (purchase intention and brand choice are explored trough structural equation models using PLS-SEM approach, using a sample of 461 young consumers. Research confirmed the validity of research model in explaining product comparison usage, and some consumer decision-making styles influenced consumers’ choices and purchase intention. Product and sellers reviews usage were partially mediating mentioned relationships.

  10. An expandable software model for collaborative decision making during the whole building life cycle

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Papamichael, K.; Pal, V.; Bourassa, N.; Loffeld, J.; Capeluto, G.

    2000-04-01

    Decisions throughout the life cycle of a building, from design through construction and commissioning to operation and demolition, require the involvement of multiple interested parties (e.g., architects, engineers, owners, occupants and facility managers). The performance of alternative designs and courses of action must be assessed with respect to multiple performance criteria, such as comfort, aesthetics, energy, cost and environmental impact. Several stand-alone computer tools are currently available that address specific performance issues during various stages of a building's life cycle. Some of these tools support collaboration by providing means for synchronous and asynchronous communications, performance simulations, and monitoring of a variety of performance parameters involved in decisions about a building during building operation. However, these tools are not linked in any way, so significant work is required to maintain and distribute information to all parties. In this paper we describe a software model that provides the data management and process control required for collaborative decision making throughout a building's life cycle. The requirements for the model are delineated addressing data and process needs for decision making at different stages of a building's life cycle. The software model meets these requirements and allows addition of any number of processes and support databases over time. What makes the model infinitely expandable is that it is a very generic conceptualization (or abstraction) of processes as relations among data. The software model supports multiple concurrent users, and facilitates discussion and debate leading to decision making. The software allows users to define rules and functions for automating tasks and alerting all participants to issues that need attention. It supports management of simulated as well as real data and continuously generates information useful for improving performance prediction

  11. An expandable software model for collaborative decision making during the whole building life cycle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Papamichael, K.; Pal, V.; Bourassa, N.; Loffeld, J.; Capeluto, G.

    2000-01-01

    Decisions throughout the life cycle of a building, from design through construction and commissioning to operation and demolition, require the involvement of multiple interested parties (e.g., architects, engineers, owners, occupants and facility managers). The performance of alternative designs and courses of action must be assessed with respect to multiple performance criteria, such as comfort, aesthetics, energy, cost and environmental impact. Several stand-alone computer tools are currently available that address specific performance issues during various stages of a building's life cycle. Some of these tools support collaboration by providing means for synchronous and asynchronous communications, performance simulations, and monitoring of a variety of performance parameters involved in decisions about a building during building operation. However, these tools are not linked in any way, so significant work is required to maintain and distribute information to all parties. In this paper we describe a software model that provides the data management and process control required for collaborative decision making throughout a building's life cycle. The requirements for the model are delineated addressing data and process needs for decision making at different stages of a building's life cycle. The software model meets these requirements and allows addition of any number of processes and support databases over time. What makes the model infinitely expandable is that it is a very generic conceptualization (or abstraction) of processes as relations among data. The software model supports multiple concurrent users, and facilitates discussion and debate leading to decision making. The software allows users to define rules and functions for automating tasks and alerting all participants to issues that need attention. It supports management of simulated as well as real data and continuously generates information useful for improving performance prediction and

  12. Musicians and music making as a model for the study of brain plasticity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schlaug, Gottfried

    2015-01-01

    Playing a musical instrument is an intense, multisensory, and motor experience that usually commences at an early age and requires the acquisition and maintenance of a range of sensory and motor skills over the course of a musician's lifetime. Thus, musicians offer an excellent human model for studying behavioral-cognitive as well as brain effects of acquiring, practicing, and maintaining these specialized skills. Research has shown that repeatedly practicing the association of motor actions with specific sound and visual patterns (musical notation), while receiving continuous multisensory feedback will strengthen connections between auditory and motor regions (e.g., arcuate fasciculus) as well as multimodal integration regions. Plasticity in this network may explain some of the sensorimotor and cognitive enhancements that have been associated with music training. Furthermore, the plasticity of this system as a result of long term and intense interventions suggest the potential for music making activities (e.g., forms of singing) as an intervention for neurological and developmental disorders to learn and relearn associations between auditory and motor functions such as vocal motor functions. © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  13. Toward understanding Malaysian fishermen's decision making on the use of fishing technology: a mental model approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamzah, Azimi; Krauss, Steven E; Shaffril, Hayrol A M; Suandi, Turiman; Ismail, Ismi A; Abu Samah, Bahaman

    2014-10-01

    The vast majority of Malaysia's fishermen are located in rural areas, specifically in the Western and Eastern coastal regions of Peninsular Malaysia and the Sabah and Sarawak central zones. In these areas, the fishing industry is relied upon as a major economic contributor to the region's residents. Despite the widespread application of various modern technologies into the fishing industry (i.e., GPS, sonar, echo sounder, remote sensing), and the Malaysian government's efforts to encourage their adoption, many small-scale fishermen in the country's rural areas continue to rely on traditional fishing methods. This refusal to embrace new technologies has resulted in significant losses in fish yields and needed income, and has raised many questions regarding the inputs to decision making of the fishermen. Drawing on multiple literatures, in this article we argue for the use of a mental model approach to gain an in-depth understanding of rural Malaysian fishermen's choices of technology adoption according to four main constructs--prior experience, knowledge, expertise and beliefs or values. To provide needed inputs to agricultural specialists and related policy makers for the development of relevant plans of action, this article aims to provide a way forward for others to understand dispositional barriers to technology adoption among fishermen who use traditional methods in non-Western contexts. © 2013 International Union of Psychological Science.

  14. Decision-making deficits and overeating: a risk model for obesity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Caroline; Levitan, Robert D; Muglia, Pierandrea; Bewell, Carmen; Kennedy, James L

    2004-06-01

    To demonstrate that human overeating is not just a passive response to salient environmental triggers and powerful physiological drives; it is also about making choices. The ventromedial prefrontal cortex has been strongly implicated in the neural circuitry necessary for making advantageous decisions when various options for action are available. Decision-making deficits have been found in patients with ventromedial prefrontal cortex lesions and in those with substance dependence--impairments that reflect an inability to advantageously assess future consequences. That is, they choose immediate rewards in the face of future long-term negative consequences. We extended this research to the study of overeating and overweight, testing a regression model that predicted that poor decision making (as assessed by a validated computerized gambling task) and a tendency to overeat under stress would correlate with higher BMI in a group of healthy adult women (N = 41) representing a broad range of body weights. We found statistically significant main effects for both independent variables in the predicted direction (p < 0.05; R2 = 0.35). Indeed, the decision-making impairments across the 100 trials of the computer task were greater in those with high BMI than in previous studies with drug addicts. Findings suggested that cortical and subcortical processes, which regulate one's ability to inhibit short-term rewards when the long-term consequences are deleterious, may also influence eating behaviors in a culture dominated by so many, and such varied, sources of palatable and calorically dense sources of energy.

  15. Toward an operational model of decision making, emotional regulation, and mental health impact.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collura, Thomas Francis; Zalaquett, Ronald P; Bonnstetter, Carlos Joyce; Chatters, Seria J

    2014-01-01

    Current brain research increasingly reveals the underlying mechanisms and processes of human behavior, cognition, and emotion. In addition to being of interest to a wide range of scientists, educators, and professionals, as well as laypeople, brain-based models are of particular value in a clinical setting. Psychiatrists, psychologists, counselors, and other mental health professionals are in need of operational models that integrate recent findings in the physical, cognitive, and emotional domains, and offer a common language for interdisciplinary understanding and communication. Based on individual traits, predispositions, and responses to stimuli, we can begin to identify emotional and behavioral pathways and mental processing patterns. The purpose of this article is to present a brain-path activation model to understand individual differences in decision making and psychopathology. The first section discusses the role of frontal lobe electroencephalography (EEG) asymmetry, summarizes state- and trait-based models of decision making, and provides a more complex analysis that supplements the traditional simple left-right brain model. Key components of the new model are the introduction of right hemisphere parallel and left hemisphere serial scanning in rendering decisions, and the proposition of pathways that incorporate both past experiences as well as future implications into the decision process. Main attributes of each decision-making mechanism are provided. The second section applies the model within the realm of clinical mental health as a tool to understand specific human behavior and pathology. Applications include general and chronic anxiety, depression, paranoia, risk taking, and the pathways employed when well-functioning operational integration is observed. Finally, specific applications such as meditation and mindfulness are offered to facilitate positive functioning.

  16. Making eco logic and models work : An integrative approach to lake ecosystem modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kuiper, Jan Jurjen

    2016-01-01

    Dynamical ecosystem models are important tools that can help ecologists understand complex systems, and turn understanding into predictions of how these systems respond to external changes. This thesis revolves around PCLake, an integrated ecosystem model of shallow lakes that is used by both

  17. Relationship Marketing results: proposition of a cognitive mapping model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iná Futino Barreto

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Objective - This research sought to develop a cognitive model that expresses how marketing professionals understand the relationship between the constructs that define relationship marketing (RM. It also tried to understand, using the obtained model, how objectives in this field are achieved. Design/methodology/approach – Through cognitive mapping, we traced 35 individual mental maps, highlighting how each respondent understands the interactions between RM elements. Based on the views of these individuals, we established an aggregate mental map. Theoretical foundation – The topic is based on a literature review that explores the RM concept and its main elements. Based on this review, we listed eleven main constructs. Findings – We established an aggregate mental map that represents the RM structural model. Model analysis identified that CLV is understood as the final result of RM. We also observed that the impact of most of the RM elements on CLV is brokered by loyalty. Personalization and quality, on the other hand, proved to be process input elements, and are the ones that most strongly impact others. Finally, we highlight that elements that punish customers are much less effective than elements that benefit them. Contributions - The model was able to insert core elements of RM, but absent from most formal models: CLV and customization. The analysis allowed us to understand the interactions between the RM elements and how the end result of RM (CLV is formed. This understanding improves knowledge on the subject and helps guide, assess and correct actions.

  18. 77 FR 20648 - Certain Digital Models, Digital Data, and Treatment Plans for Use in Making Incremental Dental...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-04-05

    ... COMMISSION Certain Digital Models, Digital Data, and Treatment Plans for Use in Making Incremental Dental... of certain digital models, digital data, and treatment plans for use in making incremental dental... importation, or the sale within the United States after importation of certain digital models, digital data...

  19. Marginal production in the Gulf of Mexico - II. Model results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaiser, Mark J.; Yu, Yunke

    2010-01-01

    In the second part of this two-part article on marginal production in the Gulf of Mexico, we estimate the number of committed assets in water depth less than 1000 ft that are expected to be marginal over a 60-year time horizon. We compute the expected quantity and value of the production and gross revenue streams of the gulf's committed asset inventory circa. January 2007 using a probabilistic model framework. Cumulative hydrocarbon production from the producing inventory is estimated to be 1056 MMbbl oil and 13.3 Tcf gas. Marginal production from the committed asset inventory is expected to contribute 4.1% of total oil production and 5.4% of gas production. A meta-evaluation procedure is adapted to present the results of sensitivity analysis. Model results are discussed along with a description of the model framework and limitations of the analysis. (author)

  20. Marginal production in the Gulf of Mexico - II. Model results

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kaiser, Mark J.; Yu, Yunke [Center for Energy Studies, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA 70803 (United States)

    2010-08-15

    In the second part of this two-part article on marginal production in the Gulf of Mexico, we estimate the number of committed assets in water depth less than 1000 ft that are expected to be marginal over a 60-year time horizon. We compute the expected quantity and value of the production and gross revenue streams of the gulf's committed asset inventory circa. January 2007 using a probabilistic model framework. Cumulative hydrocarbon production from the producing inventory is estimated to be 1056 MMbbl oil and 13.3 Tcf gas. Marginal production from the committed asset inventory is expected to contribute 4.1% of total oil production and 5.4% of gas production. A meta-evaluation procedure is adapted to present the results of sensitivity analysis. Model results are discussed along with a description of the model framework and limitations of the analysis. (author)

  1. When to Make Mountains out of Molehills: The Pros and Cons of Simple and Complex Model Calibration Procedures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, K. A.; Barker, L. J.; Harrigan, S.; Prudhomme, C.; Hannaford, J.; Tanguy, M.; Parry, S.

    2017-12-01

    Earth and environmental models are relied upon to investigate system responses that cannot otherwise be examined. In simulating physical processes, models have adjustable parameters which may, or may not, have a physical meaning. Determining the values to assign to these model parameters is an enduring challenge for earth and environmental modellers. Selecting different error metrics by which the models results are compared to observations will lead to different sets of calibrated model parameters, and thus different model results. Furthermore, models may exhibit `equifinal' behaviour, where multiple combinations of model parameters lead to equally acceptable model performance against observations. These decisions in model calibration introduce uncertainty that must be considered when model results are used to inform environmental decision-making. This presentation focusses on the uncertainties that derive from the calibration of a four parameter lumped catchment hydrological model (GR4J). The GR models contain an inbuilt automatic calibration algorithm that can satisfactorily calibrate against four error metrics in only a few seconds. However, a single, deterministic model result does not provide information on parameter uncertainty. Furthermore, a modeller interested in extreme events, such as droughts, may wish to calibrate against more low flows specific error metrics. In a comprehensive assessment, the GR4J model has been run with 500,000 Latin Hypercube Sampled parameter sets across 303 catchments in the United Kingdom. These parameter sets have been assessed against six error metrics, including two drought specific metrics. This presentation compares the two approaches, and demonstrates that the inbuilt automatic calibration can outperform the Latin Hypercube experiment approach in single metric assessed performance. However, it is also shown that there are many merits of the more comprehensive assessment, which allows for probabilistic model results, multi

  2. Sensorimotor learning biases choice behavior: a learning neural field model for decision making.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christian Klaes

    Full Text Available According to a prominent view of sensorimotor processing in primates, selection and specification of possible actions are not sequential operations. Rather, a decision for an action emerges from competition between different movement plans, which are specified and selected in parallel. For action choices which are based on ambiguous sensory input, the frontoparietal sensorimotor areas are considered part of the common underlying neural substrate for selection and specification of action. These areas have been shown capable of encoding alternative spatial motor goals in parallel during movement planning, and show signatures of competitive value-based selection among these goals. Since the same network is also involved in learning sensorimotor associations, competitive action selection (decision making should not only be driven by the sensory evidence and expected reward in favor of either action, but also by the subject's learning history of different sensorimotor associations. Previous computational models of competitive neural decision making used predefined associations between sensory input and corresponding motor output. Such hard-wiring does not allow modeling of how decisions are influenced by sensorimotor learning or by changing reward contingencies. We present a dynamic neural field model which learns arbitrary sensorimotor associations with a reward-driven Hebbian learning algorithm. We show that the model accurately simulates the dynamics of action selection with different reward contingencies, as observed in monkey cortical recordings, and that it correctly predicted the pattern of choice errors in a control experiment. With our adaptive model we demonstrate how network plasticity, which is required for association learning and adaptation to new reward contingencies, can influence choice behavior. The field model provides an integrated and dynamic account for the operations of sensorimotor integration, working memory and action

  3. Using multi-species occupancy models in structured decision making on managed lands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sauer, John R.; Blank, Peter J.; Zipkin, Elise F.; Fallon, Jane E.; Fallon, Frederick W.

    2013-01-01

    Land managers must balance the needs of a variety of species when manipulating habitats. Structured decision making provides a systematic means of defining choices and choosing among alternative management options; implementation of a structured decision requires quantitative approaches to predicting consequences of management on the relevant species. Multi-species occupancy models provide a convenient framework for making structured decisions when the management objective is focused on a collection of species. These models use replicate survey data that are often collected on managed lands. Occupancy can be modeled for each species as a function of habitat and other environmental features, and Bayesian methods allow for estimation and prediction of collective responses of groups of species to alternative scenarios of habitat management. We provide an example of this approach using data from breeding bird surveys conducted in 2008 at the Patuxent Research Refuge in Laurel, Maryland, evaluating the effects of eliminating meadow and wetland habitats on scrub-successional and woodland-breeding bird species using summed total occupancy of species as an objective function. Removal of meadows and wetlands decreased value of an objective function based on scrub-successional species by 23.3% (95% CI: 20.3–26.5), but caused only a 2% (0.5, 3.5) increase in value of an objective function based on woodland species, documenting differential effects of elimination of meadows and wetlands on these groups of breeding birds. This approach provides a useful quantitative tool for managers interested in structured decision making.

  4. A software development and evolution model based on decision-making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wild, J. Christian; Dong, Jinghuan; Maly, Kurt

    1991-01-01

    Design is a complex activity whose purpose is to construct an artifact which satisfies a set of constraints and requirements. However the design process is not well understood. The software design and evolution process is the focus of interest, and a three dimensional software development space organized around a decision-making paradigm is presented. An initial instantiation of this model called 3DPM(sub p) which was partly implemented, is presented. Discussion of the use of this model in software reuse and process management is given.

  5. Advantage of make-to-stock strategy based on linear mixed-effect model: a comparison with regression, autoregressive, times series, and exponential smoothing models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu-Pin Liao

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available In the past few decades, demand forecasting has become relatively difficult due to rapid changes in the global environment. This research illustrates the use of the make-to-stock (MTS production strategy in order to explain how forecasting plays an essential role in business management. The linear mixed-effect (LME model has been extensively developed and is widely applied in various fields. However, no study has used the LME model for business forecasting. We suggest that the LME model be used as a tool for prediction and to overcome environment complexity. The data analysis is based on real data in an international display company, where the company needs accurate demand forecasting before adopting a MTS strategy. The forecasting result from the LME model is compared to the commonly used approaches, including the regression model, autoregressive model, times series model, and exponential smoothing model, with the results revealing that prediction performance provided by the LME model is more stable than using the other methods. Furthermore, product types in the data are regarded as a random effect in the LME model, hence demands of all types can be predicted simultaneously using a single LME model. However, some approaches require splitting the data into different type categories, and then predicting the type demand by establishing a model for each type. This feature also demonstrates the practicability of the LME model in real business operations.

  6. A role for low-order system dynamics models in urban health policy making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newell, Barry; Siri, José

    2016-10-01

    Cities are complex adaptive systems whose responses to policy initiatives emerge from feedback interactions between their parts. Urban policy makers must routinely deal with both detail and dynamic complexity, coupled with high levels of diversity, uncertainty and contingency. In such circumstances, it is difficult to generate reliable predictions of health-policy outcomes. In this paper we explore the potential for low-order system dynamics (LOSD) models to make a contribution towards meeting this challenge. By definition, LOSD models have few state variables (≤5), illustrate the non-linear effects caused by feedback and accumulation, and focus on endogenous dynamics generated within well-defined boundaries. We suggest that experience with LOSD models can help practitioners to develop an understanding of basic principles of system dynamics, giving them the ability to 'see with new eyes'. Because efforts to build a set of LOSD models can help a transdisciplinary group to develop a shared, coherent view of the problems that they seek to tackle, such models can also become the foundations of 'powerful ideas'. Powerful ideas are conceptual metaphors that provide the members of a policy-making group with the a priori shared context required for effective communication, the co-production of knowledge, and the collaborative development of effective public health policies. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Fuel assembly bow: analytical modeling and resulting design improvements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stabel, J.; Huebsch, H.P.

    1995-01-01

    The bowing of fuel assemblies may result in a contact between neighbouring fuel assemblies and in connection with a vibration to a resulting wear or even perforation at the corners of the spacer grids of neighbouring assemblies. Such events allowed reinsertion of a few fuel assemblies in Germany only after spacer repair. In order to identify the most sensitive parameters causing the observed bowing of fuel assemblies a new computer model was develop which takes into a account the highly nonlinear behaviour of the interaction between fuel rods and spacers. As a result of the studies performed with this model, design improvements such as a more rigid connection between guide thimbles and spacer grids, could be defined. First experiences with this improved design show significantly better fuel behaviour. (author). 5 figs., 1 tabs

  8. Methodology and Results of Mathematical Modelling of Complex Technological Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mokrova, Nataliya V.

    2018-03-01

    The methodology of system analysis allows us to draw a mathematical model of the complex technological process. The mathematical description of the plasma-chemical process was proposed. The importance the quenching rate and initial temperature decrease time was confirmed for producing the maximum amount of the target product. The results of numerical integration of the system of differential equations can be used to describe reagent concentrations, plasma jet rate and temperature in order to achieve optimal mode of hardening. Such models are applicable both for solving control problems and predicting future states of sophisticated technological systems.

  9. Modeling vertical loads in pools resulting from fluid injection. [BWR

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lai, W.; McCauley, E.W.

    1978-06-15

    Table-top model experiments were performed to investigate pressure suppression pool dynamics effects due to a postulated loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA) for the Peachbottom Mark I boiling water reactor containment system. The results guided subsequent conduct of experiments in the /sup 1///sub 5/-scale facility and provided new insight into the vertical load function (VLF). Model experiments show an oscillatory VLF with the download typically double-spiked followed by a more gradual sinusoidal upload. The load function contains a high frequency oscillation superimposed on a low frequency one; evidence from measurements indicates that the oscillations are initiated by fluid dynamics phenomena.

  10. Modeling vertical loads in pools resulting from fluid injection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lai, W.; McCauley, E.W.

    1978-01-01

    Table-top model experiments were performed to investigate pressure suppression pool dynamics effects due to a postulated loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA) for the Peachbottom Mark I boiling water reactor containment system. The results guided subsequent conduct of experiments in the 1 / 5 -scale facility and provided new insight into the vertical load function (VLF). Model experiments show an oscillatory VLF with the download typically double-spiked followed by a more gradual sinusoidal upload. The load function contains a high frequency oscillation superimposed on a low frequency one; evidence from measurements indicates that the oscillations are initiated by fluid dynamics phenomena

  11. Some results on the dynamics generated by the Bazykin model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Georgescu, R M

    2006-07-01

    Full Text Available A predator-prey model formerly proposed by A. Bazykin et al. [Bifurcation diagrams of planar dynamical systems (1985] is analyzed in the case when two of the four parameters are kept fixed. Dynamics and bifurcation results are deduced by using the methods developed by D. K. Arrowsmith and C. M. Place [Ordinary differential equations (1982], S.-N. Chow et al. [Normal forms and bifurcation of planar fields (1994], Y. A. Kuznetsov [Elements of applied bifurcation theory (1998], and A. Georgescu [Dynamic bifurcation diagrams for some models in economics and biology (2004]. The global dynamic bifurcation diagram is constructed and graphically represented. The biological interpretation is presented, too.

  12. Using multiple criteria decision making models for ranking customers of bank network based on loyalty properties in weighted RFM model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fayegh Zaheri

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available One of the most basic requirements of financial institutes, governmental and private banks in the present age is to have a good understanding on customers' behaviors of bank network. It helps banks determine customer loyalty, which yields profit making for bank. On the other hand, it is important to know about credit risk of customers with the goal of decreasing loss and better allocation of bank resources to applicants of receiving loan. According to nature of customer loyalty discussion and credit risk, these two issues are separately studied. The present article deals with studying customer loyalty and prioritizing based one private bank in Kurdistan province. The proposed model of this paper studies customer loyalty by using Recency Frequency Monetary (RFM factor for prioritizing customer based on loyalty properties and Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS. In addition, in order to calculate the relative importance coefficient or weight of loyalty properties in RFM method, the pair wise comparison matrix based on analytical hierarchy process (AHP is used. Results show that in the present study, necessarily customers having higher average monetary value during a specified time period does not have much higher priority compared with other customers.

  13. Results of the eruptive column model inter-comparison study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costa, Antonio; Suzuki, Yujiro; Cerminara, M.; Devenish, Ben J.; Esposti Ongaro, T.; Herzog, Michael; Van Eaton, Alexa; Denby, L.C.; Bursik, Marcus; de' Michieli Vitturi, Mattia; Engwell, S.; Neri, Augusto; Barsotti, Sara; Folch, Arnau; Macedonio, Giovanni; Girault, F.; Carazzo, G.; Tait, S.; Kaminski, E.; Mastin, Larry G.; Woodhouse, Mark J.; Phillips, Jeremy C.; Hogg, Andrew J.; Degruyter, Wim; Bonadonna, Costanza

    2016-01-01

    This study compares and evaluates one-dimensional (1D) and three-dimensional (3D) numerical models of volcanic eruption columns in a set of different inter-comparison exercises. The exercises were designed as a blind test in which a set of common input parameters was given for two reference eruptions, representing a strong and a weak eruption column under different meteorological conditions. Comparing the results of the different models allows us to evaluate their capabilities and target areas for future improvement. Despite their different formulations, the 1D and 3D models provide reasonably consistent predictions of some of the key global descriptors of the volcanic plumes. Variability in plume height, estimated from the standard deviation of model predictions, is within ~ 20% for the weak plume and ~ 10% for the strong plume. Predictions of neutral buoyancy level are also in reasonably good agreement among the different models, with a standard deviation ranging from 9 to 19% (the latter for the weak plume in a windy atmosphere). Overall, these discrepancies are in the range of observational uncertainty of column height. However, there are important differences amongst models in terms of local properties along the plume axis, particularly for the strong plume. Our analysis suggests that the simplified treatment of entrainment in 1D models is adequate to resolve the general behaviour of the weak plume. However, it is inadequate to capture complex features of the strong plume, such as large vortices, partial column collapse, or gravitational fountaining that strongly enhance entrainment in the lower atmosphere. We conclude that there is a need to more accurately quantify entrainment rates, improve the representation of plume radius, and incorporate the effects of column instability in future versions of 1D volcanic plume models.

  14. The Weighted Gray Situation Decision-Making Model Based on the Gray Theory of Decision-Making and Its Application -- An Example of Forest Health Park of Hainan Province

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Kuailin; Bai, Zhiyong

    This paper analyses the complication of influence construction of eco-tourism park decision-making, through study on gray situation theory of decision making establishes an new model of decision-making, -- weighted gray situation decision-making model based on the gray situation theory of decision-making, and on the empirical analysis, it gives a new method of gray situation theory used in decision-making of construction.

  15. Strategic enterprise resource planning in a health-care system using a multicriteria decision-making model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Chang Won; Kwak, N K

    2011-04-01

    This paper deals with strategic enterprise resource planning (ERP) in a health-care system using a multicriteria decision-making (MCDM) model. The model is developed and analyzed on the basis of the data obtained from a leading patient-oriented provider of health-care services in Korea. Goal criteria and priorities are identified and established via the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). Goal programming (GP) is utilized to derive satisfying solutions for designing, evaluating, and implementing an ERP. The model results are evaluated and sensitivity analyses are conducted in an effort to enhance the model applicability. The case study provides management with valuable insights for planning and controlling health-care activities and services.

  16. Initial CGE Model Results Summary Exogenous and Endogenous Variables Tests

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Edwards, Brian Keith [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Boero, Riccardo [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Rivera, Michael Kelly [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2017-08-07

    The following discussion presents initial results of tests of the most recent version of the National Infrastructure Simulation and Analysis Center Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model developed by Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). The intent of this is to test and assess the model’s behavioral properties. The test evaluated whether the predicted impacts are reasonable from a qualitative perspective. This issue is whether the predicted change, be it an increase or decrease in other model variables, is consistent with prior economic intuition and expectations about the predicted change. One of the purposes of this effort is to determine whether model changes are needed in order to improve its behavior qualitatively and quantitatively.

  17. On Some Issues Related to the Models of Human and Organizational Factors and their Use in the Decision Making Process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Serbanescu, D.

    2016-01-01

    The paper presents some results from a research on the best approaches to be adopted in order to evaluate the impact of various models used for Human and Organizational Factors (HOF) in nuclear field (nuclear power plants (NPP) and the infrastructure specific for their lifetime cycle—design, operation and extension of operation and decommissioning of a NPP). The work considers that modelling of HOF in integrated models for the whole NPP and its infrastructure was identified as an important issue by all the major accidents in the NPP (for instance, TMI, Chernobyl and Fukushima). However there are fundamental difficulties to develop models for such systems (combined technical-social and economical systems). Previous models used for similar cases in the evaluation of the lessons learnt from major accidents and in the modelling of the security of energy supply aspects were used by the author. In this paper results are presented with the use of three type of models: • Operational research (using matrix approach) for describing the systems, their elements, the challenges and results of the challenges; • Expert type approach based on best practice and expertise included in documents and researches of holistic type; • Risk based evaluations based on methodologies for the Integrated Risk Informed Decision Making.

  18. Optimal healthcare decision making under multiple mathematical models: application in prostate cancer screening.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertsimas, Dimitris; Silberholz, John; Trikalinos, Thomas

    2018-03-01

    Important decisions related to human health, such as screening strategies for cancer, need to be made without a satisfactory understanding of the underlying biological and other processes. Rather, they are often informed by mathematical models that approximate reality. Often multiple models have been made to study the same phenomenon, which may lead to conflicting decisions. It is natural to seek a decision making process that identifies decisions that all models find to be effective, and we propose such a framework in this work. We apply the framework in prostate cancer screening to identify prostate-specific antigen (PSA)-based strategies that perform well under all considered models. We use heuristic search to identify strategies that trade off between optimizing the average across all models' assessments and being "conservative" by optimizing the most pessimistic model assessment. We identified three recently published mathematical models that can estimate quality-adjusted life expectancy (QALE) of PSA-based screening strategies and identified 64 strategies that trade off between maximizing the average and the most pessimistic model assessments. All prescribe PSA thresholds that increase with age, and 57 involve biennial screening. Strategies with higher assessments with the pessimistic model start screening later, stop screening earlier, and use higher PSA thresholds at earlier ages. The 64 strategies outperform 22 previously published expert-generated strategies. The 41 most "conservative" ones remained better than no screening with all models in extensive sensitivity analyses. We augment current comparative modeling approaches by identifying strategies that perform well under all models, for various degrees of decision makers' conservativeness.

  19. Differential impairments underlying decision making in anorexia nervosa and bulimia nervosa: a cognitive modeling analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chan, Trista Wai Sze; Ahn, Woo-Young; Bates, John E; Busemeyer, Jerome R; Guillaume, Sebastien; Redgrave, Graham W; Danner, Unna N; Courtet, Philippe

    2014-03-01

    This study examined the underlying processes of decision-making impairments in individuals with anorexia nervosa (AN) and bulimia nervosa (BN). We deconstructed their performance on the widely used decision task, the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) into cognitive, motivational, and response processes using cognitive modeling analysis. We hypothesized that IGT performance would be characterized by impaired memory functions and heightened punishment sensitivity in AN, and by elevated sensitivity to reward as opposed to punishment in BN. We analyzed trial-by-trial data of IGT obtained from 224 individuals: 94 individuals with AN, 63 with BN, and 67 healthy comparison individuals (HC). The prospect valence learning model was used to assess cognitive, motivational, and response processes underlying IGT performance. Individuals with AN showed marginally impaired IGT performance compared to HC. Their performance was characterized by impairments in memory functions. Individuals with BN showed significantly impaired IGT performance compared to HC. They showed greater relative sensitivity to gains as opposed to losses than HC. Memory functions in AN were positively correlated with body mass index. This study identified differential impairments underlying IGT performance in AN and BN. Findings suggest that impaired decision making in AN might involve impaired memory functions. Impaired decision making in BN might involve altered reward and punishment sensitivity. Copyright © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  20. Clinical decision-making to facilitate appropriate patient management in chiropractic practice: 'the 3-questions model'

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amorin-Woods Lyndon G

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background A definitive diagnosis in chiropractic clinical practice is frequently elusive, yet decisions around management are still necessary. Often, a clinical impression is made after the exclusion of serious illness or injury, and care provided within the context of diagnostic uncertainty. Rather than focussing on labelling the condition, the clinician may choose to develop a defendable management plan since the response to treatment often clarifies the diagnosis. Discussion This paper explores the concept and elements of defensive problem-solving practice, with a view to developing a model of agile, pragmatic decision-making amenable to real-world application. A theoretical framework that reflects the elements of this approach will be offered in order to validate the potential of a so called '3-Questions Model'; Summary Clinical decision-making is considered to be a key characteristic of any modern healthcare practitioner. It is, thus, prudent for chiropractors to re-visit the concept of defensible practice with a view to facilitate capable clinical decision-making and competent patient examination skills. In turn, the perception of competence and trustworthiness of chiropractors within the wider healthcare community helps integration of chiropractic services into broader healthcare settings.

  1. Working Memory and Decision-Making in a Frontoparietal Circuit Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murray, John D; Jaramillo, Jorge; Wang, Xiao-Jing

    2017-12-13

    Working memory (WM) and decision-making (DM) are fundamental cognitive functions involving a distributed interacting network of brain areas, with the posterior parietal cortex (PPC) and prefrontal cortex (PFC) at the core. However, the shared and distinct roles of these areas and the nature of their coordination in cognitive function remain poorly understood. Biophysically based computational models of cortical circuits have provided insights into the mechanisms supporting these functions, yet they have primarily focused on the local microcircuit level, raising questions about the principles for distributed cognitive computation in multiregional networks. To examine these issues, we developed a distributed circuit model of two reciprocally interacting modules representing PPC and PFC circuits. The circuit architecture includes hierarchical differences in local recurrent structure and implements reciprocal long-range projections. This parsimonious model captures a range of behavioral and neuronal features of frontoparietal circuits across multiple WM and DM paradigms. In the context of WM, both areas exhibit persistent activity, but, in response to intervening distractors, PPC transiently encodes distractors while PFC filters distractors and supports WM robustness. With regard to DM, the PPC module generates graded representations of accumulated evidence supporting target selection, while the PFC module generates more categorical responses related to action or choice. These findings suggest computational principles for distributed, hierarchical processing in cortex during cognitive function and provide a framework for extension to multiregional models. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT Working memory and decision-making are fundamental "building blocks" of cognition, and deficits in these functions are associated with neuropsychiatric disorders such as schizophrenia. These cognitive functions engage distributed networks with prefrontal cortex (PFC) and posterior parietal

  2. Interaction between subducting plates: results from numerical and analogue modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiraly, Agnes; Capitanio, Fabio A.; Funiciello, Francesca; Faccenna, Claudio

    2016-04-01

    The tectonic setting of the Alpine-Mediterranean area is achieved during the late Cenozoic subduction, collision and suturing of several oceanic fragments and continental blocks. In this stage, processes such as interactions among subducting slabs, slab migrations and related mantle flow played a relevant role on the resulting tectonics. Here, we use numerical models to first address the mantle flow characteristic in 3D. During the subduction of a single plate the strength of the return flow strongly depends on the slab pull force, that is on the plate's buoyancy, however the physical properties of the slab, such as density, viscosity or width, do not affect largely the morphology of the toroidal cell. Instead, dramatic effects on the geometry and the dynamics of the toroidal cell result in models where the thickness of the mantle is varied. The vertical component of the vorticity vector is used to define the characteristic size of the toroidal cell, which is ~1.2-1.3 times the mantle depth. This latter defines the range of viscous stress propagation through the mantle and consequent interactions with other slabs. We thus further investigate on this setup where two separate lithospheric plates subduct in opposite sense, developing opposite polarities and convergent slab retreat, and model different initial sideways distance between the plates. The stress profiles in time illustrate that the plates interacts when slabs are at the characteristic distance and the two slabs toroidal cells merge. Increased stress and delayed slab migrations are the results. Analogue models of double-sided subduction show similar maximum distance and allow testing the additional role of stress propagated through the plates. We use a silicon plate subducting on its two opposite margins, which is either homogeneous or comprises oceanic and continental lithospheres, differing in buoyancy. The modeling results show that the double-sided subduction is strongly affected by changes in plate

  3. First experiments results about the engineering model of Rapsodie

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chalot, A.; Ginier, R.; Sauvage, M.

    1964-01-01

    This report deals with the first series of experiments carried out on the engineering model of Rapsodie and on an associated sodium facility set in a laboratory hall of Cadarache. It conveys more precisely: 1/ - The difficulties encountered during the erection and assembly of the engineering model and a compilation of the results of the first series of experiments and tests carried out on this installation (loading of the subassemblies preheating, thermal chocks...). 2/ - The experiments and tests carried out on the two prototypes control rod drive mechanisms which brought to the choice for the design of the definitive drive mechanism. As a whole, the results proved the validity of the general design principles adopted for Rapsodie. (authors) [fr

  4. Workshop to transfer VELMA watershed model results to ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    An EPA Western Ecology Division (WED) watershed modeling team has been working with the Snoqualmie Tribe Environmental and Natural Resources Department to develop VELMA watershed model simulations of the effects of historical and future restoration and land use practices on streamflow, stream temperature, and other habitat characteristics affecting threatened salmon populations in the 100 square mile Tolt River watershed in Washington state. To date, the WED group has fully calibrated the watershed model to simulate Tolt River flows with a high degree of accuracy under current and historical conditions and practices, and is in the process of simulating long-term responses to specific watershed restoration practices conducted by the Snoqualmie Tribe and partners. On July 20-21 WED Researchers Bob McKane, Allen Brookes and ORISE Fellow Jonathan Halama will be attending a workshop at the Tolt River site in Carnation, WA, to present and discuss modeling results with the Snoqualmie Tribe and other Tolt River watershed stakeholders and land managers, including the Washington Departments of Ecology and Natural Resources, U.S. Forest Service, City of Seattle, King County, and representatives of the Northwest Indian Fisheries Commission. The workshop is being co-organized by the Snoqualmie Tribe, EPA Region 10 and WED. The purpose of this 2-day workshop is two-fold. First, on Day 1, the modeling team will perform its second site visit to the watershed, this time focus

  5. Meteorological uncertainty of atmospheric dispersion model results (MUD)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Havskov Soerensen, J.; Amstrup, B.; Feddersen, H.

    2013-08-01

    The MUD project addresses assessment of uncertainties of atmospheric dispersion model predictions, as well as possibilities for optimum presentation to decision makers. Previously, it has not been possible to estimate such uncertainties quantitatively, but merely to calculate the 'most likely' dispersion scenario. However, recent developments in numerical weather prediction (NWP) include probabilistic forecasting techniques, which can be utilised also for long-range atmospheric dispersion models. The ensemble statistical methods developed and applied to NWP models aim at describing the inherent uncertainties of the meteorological model results. These uncertainties stem from e.g. limits in meteorological observations used to initialise meteorological forecast series. By perturbing e.g. the initial state of an NWP model run in agreement with the available observational data, an ensemble of meteorological forecasts is produced from which uncertainties in the various meteorological parameters are estimated, e.g. probabilities for rain. Corresponding ensembles of atmospheric dispersion can now be computed from which uncertainties of predicted radionuclide concentration and deposition patterns can be derived. (Author)

  6. Some results on hyperscaling in the 3D Ising model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baker, G.A. Jr. [Los Alamos National Lab., NM (United States). Theoretical Div.; Kawashima, Naoki [Univ. of Tokyo (Japan). Dept. of Physics

    1995-09-01

    The authors review exact studies on finite-sized 2 dimensional Ising models and show that the point for an infinite-sized model at the critical temperature is a point of nonuniform approach in the temperature-size plane. They also illuminate some strong effects of finite-size on quantities which do not diverge at the critical point. They then review Monte Carlo studies for 3 dimensional Ising models of various sizes (L = 2--100) at various temperatures. From these results they find that the data for the renormalized coupling constant collapses nicely when plotted against the correlation length, determined in a system of edge length L, divided by L. They also find that {zeta}{sub L}/L {ge} 0.26 is definitely too large for reliable studies of the critical value, g*, of the renormalized coupling constant. They have reasonable evidence that {zeta}{sub L}/L {approx} 0.1 is adequate for results that are within one percent of those for the infinite system size. On this basis, they have conducted a series of Monte Carlo calculations with this condition imposed. These calculations were made practical by the development of improved estimators for use in the Swendsen-Wang cluster method. The authors found from these results, coupled with a reversed limit computation (size increases with the temperature fixed at the critical temperature), that g* > 0, although there may well be a sharp downward drop in g as the critical temperature is approached in accord with the predictions of series analysis. The results support the validity of hyperscaling in the 3 dimensional Ising model.

  7. Presenting results of software model checker via debugging interface

    OpenAIRE

    Kohan, Tomáš

    2012-01-01

    Title: Presenting results of software model checker via debugging interface Author: Tomáš Kohan Department: Department of Software Engineering Supervisor of the master thesis: RNDr. Ondřej Šerý, Ph.D., Department of Distributed and Dependable Systems Abstract: This thesis is devoted to design and implementation of the new debugging interface of the Java PathFinder application. As a suitable inte- face container was selected the Eclipse development environment. The created interface should vis...

  8. A real-time interactive simulation framework for watershed decision making using numerical models and virtual environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, ShangHong; Xia, ZhongXi; Wang, TaiWei

    2013-06-01

    Decision support systems based on a virtual environment (VE) are becoming a popular platform in watershed simulation and management. Simulation speed and data visualization is of great significance to decision making, especially in urgent events. Real-time interaction during the simulation process is also very important for dealing with different conditions and for making timely decisions. In this study, a VE-based real-time interactive simulation framework (VERTISF) is developed and applied to simulation and management of the Dujiangyan Project in China. In VERTISF development, a virtual reality platform and numerical models were hosted on different computers and connected by a network to improve simulation speed. Different types of numerical models were generalized in a unified architecture based on time step, and interactive control was realized by modifying model boundary conditions at each time step. The "instruction-response" method and data interpolation were used to synchronize virtual environment visualization and numerical model calculation. Implementation of the framework was based on modular software design; various computer languages can be used to develop the appropriate module. Since only slight modification was needed for current numerical model integration in the framework, VERTISF was easy to extend. Results showed that VERTISF could take full advantage of hardware development, and it was a simple and effective solution for complex watershed simulation.

  9. Review of Current Standard Model Results in ATLAS

    CERN Document Server

    Brandt, Gerhard; The ATLAS collaboration

    2018-01-01

    This talk highlights results selected from the Standard Model research programme of the ATLAS Collaboration at the Large Hadron Collider. Results using data from $p-p$ collisions at $\\sqrt{s}=7,8$~TeV in LHC Run-1 as well as results using data at $\\sqrt{s}=13$~TeV in LHC Run-2 are covered. The status of cross section measurements from soft QCD processes and jet production as well as photon production are presented. The presentation extends to vector boson production with associated jets. Precision measurements of the production of $W$ and $Z$ bosons, including a first measurement of the mass of the $W$ bosons, $m_W$, are discussed. The programme to measure electroweak processes with di-boson and tri-boson final states is outlined. All presented measurements are compatible with Standard Model descriptions and allow to further constrain it. In addition they allow to probe new physics which would manifest through extra gauge couplings, or Standard Model gauge couplings deviating from their predicted value.

  10. Individual decision-making in the causal pathway to addiction: contributions and limitations of rodent models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmed, Serge H

    2018-01-01

    The causal pathway from vulnerability to drug use and addiction involves a complex interaction between genetic, environmental, and behavioral factors. An individual can intervene on this causal pathway by two major types of individual decision. There is the inaugural, momentous decision to use a drug for the first time. This decision is influenced by both prior knowledge on the drug and its expected effects, and also by prior self-knowledge on one's own vulnerability. After an individual has used a drug for the first time, there is the decision to repeat drug use. This decision is influenced by the same factors that were involved in the inaugural decision to initiate drug use, except for one crucial difference. The first drug use has now acted on the individual, changing its brain acutely and also potentially persistently in a way that could bias subsequent decision-making in favor of repeated drug use. The goal of this review article is to assess the contributions and limitations of rodent models (i.e., rats, mice) to understand how prior drug use can influence decision-making in a way that favors future drug use. Overall, research on rodents shows that prior drug use can increase impulsive, risky and/or potentially harmful decision-making. However, this does not apparently translate into more drug use when rodents have the choice between a drug and a competing, nondrug option, except when the expected value of the latter is considerably decreased. The delayed drug reward hypothesis is developed to resolve and explain this apparent discrepancy. This novel hypothesis makes several unique predictions, some of them counterintuitive, and suggests that extrapolation of rodent research to humans should not only take into account differences in drug choice situations but also inherent species-specific differences in individual decision-making. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. The SDM 3 Circle Model: A Literature Synthesis and Adaptation for Shared Decision Making in the Hospital.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rennke, Stephanie; Yuan, Patrick; Monash, Brad; Blankenburg, Rebecca; Chua, Ian; Harman, Stephanie; Sakai, Debbie S; Khan, Adeena; Hilton, Joan F; Shieh, Lisa; Satterfield, Jason

    2017-12-01

    Patient engagement through shared decision-making (SDM) is increasingly seen as a key component for patient safety, patient satisfaction, and quality of care. Current SDM models do not adequately account for medical and environmental contexts, which may influence medical decisions in the hospital. We identified leading SDM models and reviews to inductively construct a novel SDM model appropriate for the inpatient setting. A team of medicine and pediatric hospitalists reviewed the literature to integrate core SDM concepts and processes and iteratively constructed a synthesized draft model. We then solicited broad SDM expert feedback on the draft model for validation and further refinement. The SDM 3 Circle Model identifies 3 core categories of variables that dynamically interact within an "environmental frame." The resulting Venn diagram includes overlapping circles for (1) patient/family, (2) provider/team, and (3) medical context. The environmental frame includes all external, contextual factors that may influence any of the 3 circles. Existing multistep SDM process models were then rearticulated and contextualized to illustrate how a shared decision might be made. The SDM 3 Circle Model accounts for important environmental and contextual characteristics that vary across settings. The visual emphasis generated by each "circle" and by the environmental frame direct attention to often overlooked interactive forces and has the potential to more precisely define, promote, and improve SDM. This model provides a framework to develop interventions to improve quality and patient safety through SDM and patient engagement for hospitalists. © 2017 Society of Hospital Medicine.

  12. VISTopic: A visual analytics system for making sense of large document collections using hierarchical topic modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yi Yang

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Effective analysis of large text collections remains a challenging problem given the growing volume of available text data. Recently, text mining techniques have been rapidly developed for automatically extracting key information from massive text data. Topic modeling, as one of the novel techniques that extracts a thematic structure from documents, is widely used to generate text summarization and foster an overall understanding of the corpus content. Although powerful, this technique may not be directly applicable for general analytics scenarios since the topics and topic–document relationship are often presented probabilistically in models. Moreover, information that plays an important role in knowledge discovery, for example, times and authors, is hardly reflected in topic modeling for comprehensive analysis. In this paper, we address this issue by presenting a visual analytics system, VISTopic, to help users make sense of large document collections based on topic modeling. VISTopic first extracts a set of hierarchical topics using a novel hierarchical latent tree model (HLTM (Liu et al., 2014. In specific, a topic view accounting for the model features is designed for overall understanding and interactive exploration of the topic organization. To leverage multi-perspective information for visual analytics, VISTopic further provides an evolution view to reveal the trend of topics and a document view to show details of topical documents. Three case studies based on the dataset of IEEE VIS conference demonstrate the effectiveness of our system in gaining insights from large document collections. Keywords: Topic-modeling, Text visualization, Visual analytics

  13. Integrated model for pricing, delivery time setting, and scheduling in make-to-order environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garmdare, Hamid Sattari; Lotfi, M. M.; Honarvar, Mahboobeh

    2018-03-01

    Usually, in make-to-order environments which work only in response to the customer's orders, manufacturers for maximizing the profits should offer the best price and delivery time for an order considering the existing capacity and the customer's sensitivity to both the factors. In this paper, an integrated approach for pricing, delivery time setting and scheduling of new arrival orders are proposed based on the existing capacity and accepted orders in system. In the problem, the acquired market demands dependent on the price and delivery time of both the manufacturer and its competitors. A mixed-integer non-linear programming model is presented for the problem. After converting to a pure non-linear model, it is validated through a case study. The efficiency of proposed model is confirmed by comparing it to both the literature and the current practice. Finally, sensitivity analysis for the key parameters is carried out.

  14. Challenges in validating model results for first year ice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melsom, Arne; Eastwood, Steinar; Xie, Jiping; Aaboe, Signe; Bertino, Laurent

    2017-04-01

    In order to assess the quality of model results for the distribution of first year ice, a comparison with a product based on observations from satellite-borne instruments has been performed. Such a comparison is not straightforward due to the contrasting algorithms that are used in the model product and the remote sensing product. The implementation of the validation is discussed in light of the differences between this set of products, and validation results are presented. The model product is the daily updated 10-day forecast from the Arctic Monitoring and Forecasting Centre in CMEMS. The forecasts are produced with the assimilative ocean prediction system TOPAZ. Presently, observations of sea ice concentration and sea ice drift are introduced in the assimilation step, but data for sea ice thickness and ice age (or roughness) are not included. The model computes the age of the ice by recording and updating the time passed after ice formation as sea ice grows and deteriorates as it is advected inside the model domain. Ice that is younger than 365 days is classified as first year ice. The fraction of first-year ice is recorded as a tracer in each grid cell. The Ocean and Sea Ice Thematic Assembly Centre in CMEMS redistributes a daily product from the EUMETSAT OSI SAF of gridded sea ice conditions which include "ice type", a representation of the separation of regions between those infested by first year ice, and those infested by multi-year ice. The ice type is parameterized based on data for the gradient ratio GR(19,37) from SSMIS observations, and from the ASCAT backscatter parameter. This product also includes information on ambiguity in the processing of the remote sensing data, and the product's confidence level, which have a strong seasonal dependency.

  15. A strategic decision-making model considering the social costs of carbon dioxide emissions for sustainable supply chain management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tseng, Shih-Chang; Hung, Shiu-Wan

    2014-01-15

    Incorporating sustainability into supply chain management has become a critical issue driven by pressures from governments, customers, and various stakeholder groups over the past decade. This study proposes a strategic decision-making model considering both the operational costs and social costs caused by the carbon dioxide emissions from operating such a supply chain network for sustainable supply chain management. This model was used to evaluate carbon dioxide emissions and operational costs under different scenarios in an apparel manufacturing supply chain network. The results showed that the higher the social cost rate of carbon dioxide emissions, the lower the amount of the emission of carbon dioxide. The results also suggested that a legislation that forces the enterprises to bear the social costs of carbon dioxide emissions resulting from their economic activities is an effective approach to reducing carbon dioxide emissions. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Decision-making deficits in patients with chronic schizophrenia: Iowa Gambling Task and Prospect Valence Learning model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Myung-Sun; Kang, Bit-Na; Lim, Jae Young

    2016-01-01

    Decision-making is the process of forming preferences for possible options, selecting and executing actions, and evaluating the outcome. This study used the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) and the Prospect Valence Learning (PVL) model to investigate deficits in risk-reward related decision-making in patients with chronic schizophrenia, and to identify decision-making processes that contribute to poor IGT performance in these patients. Thirty-nine patients with schizophrenia and 31 healthy controls participated. Decision-making was measured by total net score, block net scores, and the total number of cards selected from each deck of the IGT. PVL parameters were estimated with the Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling scheme in OpenBugs and BRugs, its interface to R, and the estimated parameters were analyzed with the Mann-Whitney U-test. The schizophrenia group received significantly lower total net scores compared to the control group. In terms of block net scores, an interaction effect of group × block was observed. The block net scores of the schizophrenia group did not differ across the five blocks, whereas those of the control group increased as the blocks progressed. The schizophrenia group obtained significantly lower block net scores in the fourth and fifth blocks of the IGT and selected cards from deck D (advantageous) less frequently than the control group. Additionally, the schizophrenia group had significantly lower values on the utility-shape, loss-aversion, recency, and consistency parameters of the PVL model. These results indicate that patients with schizophrenia experience deficits in decision-making, possibly due to failure in learning the expected value of each deck, and incorporating outcome experiences of previous trials into expectancies about options in the present trial.

  17. Thermal-Chemical Model Of Subduction: Results And Tests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gorczyk, W.; Gerya, T. V.; Connolly, J. A.; Yuen, D. A.; Rudolph, M.

    2005-12-01

    Seismic structures with strong positive and negative velocity anomalies in the mantle wedge above subduction zones have been interpreted as thermally and/or chemically induced phenomena. We have developed a thermal-chemical model of subduction, which constrains the dynamics of seismic velocity structure beneath volcanic arcs. Our simulations have been calculated over a finite-difference grid with (201×101) to (201×401) regularly spaced Eulerian points, using 0.5 million to 10 billion markers. The model couples numerical thermo-mechanical solution with Gibbs energy minimization to investigate the dynamic behavior of partially molten upwellings from slabs (cold plumes) and structures associated with their development. The model demonstrates two chemically distinct types of plumes (mixed and unmixed), and various rigid body rotation phenomena in the wedge (subduction wheel, fore-arc spin, wedge pin-ball). These thermal-chemical features strongly perturb seismic structure. Their occurrence is dependent on the age of subducting slab and the rate of subduction.The model has been validated through a series of test cases and its results are consistent with a variety of geological and geophysical data. In contrast to models that attribute a purely thermal origin for mantle wedge seismic anomalies, the thermal-chemical model is able to simulate the strong variations of seismic velocity existing beneath volcanic arcs which are associated with development of cold plumes. In particular, molten regions that form beneath volcanic arcs as a consequence of vigorous cold wet plumes are manifest by > 20% variations in the local Poisson ratio, as compared to variations of ~ 2% expected as a consequence of temperature variation within the mantle wedge.

  18. Decision making for business model development : A process study of effectuation and causation in new technology-based ventures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reymen, Isabelle; Berends, Hans; Oudehand, Rob; Stultiëns, Rutger

    2017-01-01

    This study investigates the decision-making logics used by new ventures to develop their business models. In particular, they focussed on the logics of effectuation and causation and how their dynamics shape the development of business models over time. They found that the effectual decision-making

  19. The effect of modelling expert knowledge and uncertainty on multicriteria decision making: a river management case study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Janssen, Judith; Krol, Martinus S.; Schielen, Ralph Mathias Johannes; Hoekstra, Arjen Ysbert

    2010-01-01

    To support decision making on complex environmental issues, models are often used to explore the potential impacts of different management alternatives on the environmental system. We explored how different model outcomes affect decision making. Two topics have our particular interest, namely (1)

  20. What defines 'enough' information? How policy workers make judgements and decisions during information seeking: preliminary results from an exploratory study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J.M. Berryman

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction. Reports findings from research in progress investigating judgment and decision making during information seeking in the workplace, in particular, the assessment of enough information. Characteristics of this judgment and the role of context in shaping it are framed against theories of human judgment and decision making. Method. Thirty-three semi-structured interviews were conducted with public sector policy workers in Australia. Two interviews were carried out, the first with individual participants and the second, a joint interview with two participants. Interviews were taped and transcribed and inductive data analysis carried out. Findings. Findings discussed in this paper focus on contextual factors that frame policy workers' judgment and decision making while information seeking, factors including ill-structured problems, shifting goals, time stress and action-feedback loops. Also revealed was the importance of developing a framework, against which the judgment of enough information can be made, and the fluid and iterative nature of these judgments. Conclusion. The contextual factors reported show similarities with those identified by naturalistic decision making researchers, suggesting this new field of decision theory has much to offer researchers into information seeking in context.

  1. Research and Evidence in Education Decision-Making: A Comparison of Results from Two Pan-Canadian Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galway, Gerald; Sheppard, Bruce

    2015-01-01

    In this paper we compare the use of research and other evidence in the decision-making practices of two groups of education policy elites, situated in different contexts--provincial education ministries and school districts. Data are derived from two pan-Canadian studies: Galway (2006) and Sheppard, Galway, Brown and Wiens (2013). The findings…

  2. A modeling tool to support decision making in future hydropower development in Chile

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vicuna, S.; Hermansen, C.; Cerda, J. P.; Olivares, M. A.; Gomez, T. I.; Toha, E.; Poblete, D.; Mao, L.; Falvey, M. J.; Pliscoff, P.; Melo, O.; Lacy, S.; Peredo, M.; Marquet, P. A.; Maturana, J.; Gironas, J. A.

    2017-12-01

    Modeling tools support planning by providing transparent means to assess the outcome of natural resources management alternatives within technical frameworks in the presence of conflicting objectives. Such tools, when employed to model different scenarios, complement discussion in a policy-making context. Examples of practical use of this type of tool exist, such as the Canadian public forest management, but are not common, especially in the context of developing countries. We present a tool to support the selection from a portfolio of potential future hydropower projects in Chile. This tool, developed by a large team of researchers under the guidance of the Chilean Energy Ministry, is especially relevant in the context of evident regionalism, skepticism and change in societal values in a country that has achieved a sustained growth alongside increased demands from society. The tool operates at a scale of a river reach, between 1-5 km long, on a domain that can be defined according to the scale needs of the related discussion, and its application can vary from river basins to regions or other spatial configurations that may be of interest. The tool addresses both available hydropower potential and the existence (inferred or observed) of other ecological, social, cultural and productive characteristics of the territory which are valuable to society, and provides a means to evaluate their interaction. The occurrence of each of these other valuable characteristics in the territory is measured by generating a presence-density score for each. Considering the level of constraint each characteristic imposes on hydropower development, they are weighted against each other and an aggregate score is computed. With this information, optimal trade-offs are computed between additional hydropower capacity and valuable local characteristics over the entire domain, using the classical knapsack 0-1 optimization algorithm. Various scenarios of different weightings and hydropower

  3. Multi-Criteria Decision-Making Model for the Material Flow of Resonant Wood Production

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patrik Aláč

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a multi-criteria decision-making model, for the selection and evaluation of the most valuable wooden input—resonant wood. Application of a given model can improve the process of input valuation as well as impact and improve particular economic indicators for the resonant wood manufacturer. We have tried to describe and evaluate the supply chain of resonant wood manufacturing and production of musical instruments. Particular value-added and non-value-added activities have been chosen according to the logical sequence of technology. Then, concrete criteria were specified and their significance weightings. Another important part of our paper is the description of resonant wood, specifications, and demands on log and wood species. There are some important physical and mechanical properties which should be taken into account and evaluated during the production of musical instruments. By the application of this model, a particular enterprise can reach an enhanced tool for the continuous evaluation of the product flowing through the supply chain. Visibility of particular operations and their logical sequence, presented by Petri nets, can lead to easier detection of possible defects in these operations and their origin. So, the main purpose of the paper lies in the suggestion of an objective and quantified managerial tool for the decision making.

  4. Decision-making deficits in patients with chronic schizophrenia: Iowa Gambling Task and Prospect Valence Learning model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kim MS

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Myung-Sun Kim,1 Bit-Na Kang,1 Jae Young Lim2 1Department of Psychology, Sungshin Women’s University, Seoul, Republic of Korea; 2Department of Psychiatry, Keyo Medical Foundation, Keyo Hospital, Uiwang, Republic of Korea Purpose: Decision-making is the process of forming preferences for possible options, selecting and executing actions, and evaluating the outcome. This study used the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT and the Prospect Valence Learning (PVL model to investigate deficits in risk-reward related decision-making in patients with chronic schizophrenia, and to identify decision-making processes that contribute to poor IGT performance in these patients. Materials and methods: Thirty-nine patients with schizophrenia and 31 healthy controls participated. Decision-making was measured by total net score, block net scores, and the total number of cards selected from each deck of the IGT. PVL parameters were estimated with the Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling scheme in OpenBugs and BRugs, its interface to R, and the estimated parameters were analyzed with the Mann–Whitney U-test.Results: The schizophrenia group received significantly lower total net scores compared to the control group. In terms of block net scores, an interaction effect of group × block was observed. The block net scores of the schizophrenia group did not differ across the five blocks, whereas those of the control group increased as the blocks progressed. The schizophrenia group obtained significantly lower block net scores in the fourth and fifth blocks of the IGT and selected cards from deck D (advantageous less frequently than the control group. Additionally, the schizophrenia group had significantly lower values on the utility-shape, loss-aversion, recency, and consistency parameters of the PVL model. Conclusion: These results indicate that patients with schizophrenia experience deficits in decision-making, possibly due to failure in learning the expected value of each deck

  5. A multi-criteria decision-making model for evaluating priorities for foreign direct investment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Korhan K. Gokmenoglu

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study is to evaluate the relative priority of nine developed countries as a home country for foreign direct investment (FDI from the vantage point of the United States during three time periods: pre-crisis (2004-2006, crisis (2007-2009, and post-crisis (2010-2012. Our study suggests a methodology based on a combination of the analytic hierarchy process (AHP, the technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS, and the multi-period multi-attribute decision-making (MP-MADM technique. To investigate our research question, we selected fifteen robust FDI determinants from recent studies. The results for all three time periods show that productivity, market potential, market size, GDP growth and development have the highest priority in the decision-making process. On the other hand, we found that the 2007 global financial crisis significantly affected each variable in the decision-making process. During the crisis, two variables in particular - corruption and GDP growth - significantly increased in importance. These findings have far-reaching policy implications and can assist policymakers and investors in their strategic decision-making process.

  6. Measurement model choice influenced randomized controlled trial results.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gorter, Rosalie; Fox, Jean-Paul; Apeldoorn, Adri; Twisk, Jos

    2016-11-01

    In randomized controlled trials (RCTs), outcome variables are often patient-reported outcomes measured with questionnaires. Ideally, all available item information is used for score construction, which requires an item response theory (IRT) measurement model. However, in practice, the classical test theory measurement model (sum scores) is mostly used, and differences between response patterns leading to the same sum score are ignored. The enhanced differentiation between scores with IRT enables more precise estimation of individual trajectories over time and group effects. The objective of this study was to show the advantages of using IRT scores instead of sum scores when analyzing RCTs. Two studies are presented, a real-life RCT, and a simulation study. Both IRT and sum scores are used to measure the construct and are subsequently used as outcomes for effect calculation. The bias in RCT results is conditional on the measurement model that was used to construct the scores. A bias in estimated trend of around one standard deviation was found when sum scores were used, where IRT showed negligible bias. Accurate statistical inferences are made from an RCT study when using IRT to estimate construct measurements. The use of sum scores leads to incorrect RCT results. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Learning from Multiple Classifier Systems: Perspectives for Improving Decision Making of QSAR Models in Medicinal Chemistry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pham-The, Hai; Nam, Nguyen-Hai; Nga, Doan-Viet; Hai, Dang Thanh; Dieguez-Santana, Karel; Marrero-Poncee, Yovani; Castillo-Garit, Juan A; Casanola-Martin, Gerardo M; Le-Thi-Thu, Huong

    2018-02-09

    Quantitative Structure - Activity Relationship (QSAR) modeling has been widely used in medicinal chemistry and computational toxicology for many years. Today, as the amount of chemicals is increasing dramatically, QSAR methods have become pivotal for the purpose of handling the data, identifying a decision, and gathering useful information from data processing. The advances in this field have paved a way for numerous alternative approaches that require deep mathematics in order to enhance the learning capability of QSAR models. One of these directions is the use of Multiple Classifier Systems (MCSs) that potentially provide a means to exploit the advantages of manifold learning through decomposition frameworks, while improving generalization and predictive performance. In this paper, we presented MCS as a next generation of QSAR modeling techniques and discuss the chance to mining the vast number of models already published in the literature. We systematically revisited the theoretical frameworks of MCS as well as current advances in MCS application for QSAR practice. Furthermore, we illustrated our idea by describing ensemble approaches on modeling histone deacetylase (HDACs) inhibitors. We expect that our analysis would contribute to a better understanding about MCS application and its future perspectives for improving the decision making of QSAR models. Copyright© Bentham Science Publishers; For any queries, please email at epub@benthamscience.org.

  8. Factors influencing women's perceptions of shared decision making during labor and delivery: Results from a large-scale cohort study of first childbirth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Attanasio, Laura B; Kozhimannil, Katy B; Kjerulff, Kristen H

    2018-01-05

    To examine correlates of shared decision making during labor and delivery. Data were from a cohort of women who gave birth to their first baby in Pennsylvania, 2009-2011 (N = 3006). We used logistic regression models to examine the association between labor induction and mode of delivery in relation to women's perceptions of shared decision making, and to investigate race/ethnicity and SES as potential moderators. Women who were Black and who did not have a college degree or private insurance were less likely to report high shared decision making, as well as women who underwent labor induction, instrumental vaginal or cesarean delivery. Models with interaction terms showed that the reduction in odds of shared decision making associated with cesarean delivery was greater for Black women than for White women. Women in marginalized social groups were less likely to report shared decision making during birth and Black women who delivered by cesarean had particularly low odds of shared decision making. Strategies designed to improve the quality of patient-provider communication, information sharing, and shared decision making must be attentive to the needs of vulnerable groups to ensure that such interventions reduce rather than widen disparities. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. A methodology for eliciting, representing, and analysing stakeholder knowledge for decision making on complex socio-ecological systems: from cognitive maps to agent-based models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elsawah, Sondoss; Guillaume, Joseph H A; Filatova, Tatiana; Rook, Josefine; Jakeman, Anthony J

    2015-03-15

    This paper aims to contribute to developing better ways for incorporating essential human elements in decision making processes for modelling of complex socio-ecological systems. It presents a step-wise methodology for integrating perceptions of stakeholders (qualitative) into formal simulation models (quantitative) with the ultimate goal of improving understanding and communication about decision making in complex socio-ecological systems. The methodology integrates cognitive mapping and agent based modelling. It cascades through a sequence of qualitative/soft and numerical methods comprising: (1) Interviews to elicit mental models; (2) Cognitive maps to represent and analyse individual and group mental models; (3) Time-sequence diagrams to chronologically structure the decision making process; (4) All-encompassing conceptual model of decision making, and (5) computational (in this case agent-based) Model. We apply the proposed methodology (labelled ICTAM) in a case study of viticulture irrigation in South Australia. Finally, we use strengths-weakness-opportunities-threats (SWOT) analysis to reflect on the methodology. Results show that the methodology leverages the use of cognitive mapping to capture the richness of decision making and mental models, and provides a combination of divergent and convergent analysis methods leading to the construction of an Agent Based Model. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. THE APPROACH TO IMMITATION DECISION-MAKING PROCESS IN SYSTEM OF MODELLING OF MILITARY OPERATIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. V. Rulko

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The main requirement to imitating modeling of military operations adequacy. Proceeding from it is necessary that the behavior of modeling objects has been as much as possible approached to behavior of real objects in the same conditions of conditions or, at least, did not contradict logic of common sense and requirements of authorized documents. It creates necessity of working out of the mechanism, allowing to formalize administrative experience of commanders of corresponding levels and automatically to deduce decisions, on the basis of parameters of a current situation and preliminary set solving rules.As a rule, in decision-making process, the commander operates with difficult formalizable information at level of complex categories. Contrary to it, the object condition in modeling system is described in the form of a set of values of concrete parameters. For transformation of set of parameters of objects to parameters of higher level the method of the analysis of hierarchies is used.Thus there is the second problem demanding the permission synthesis of the device of decision-making on the basis of the received complex concepts. Use of the mechanism of an indistinct logic conclusion for this purpose is offered. In this case preference of a choice of this or that variant of behavior is set depending on character of crossing of the indistinct sets defined by the expert which functions of an accessory are constructed on axes generated before complex parameters. In quality konsekvents solving rules in advance generated strategy of behavior of modeling objects in this connection in offered algorithm actually there is no stage defuzzyfication act, and for accumulation of the conclusions the formula of algebraic association isused. The offered approach allows to carry out an automatic choice of alternative of behavior during modeling without participation of the operator.

  11. Loss of spent fuel pool cooling PRA: Model and results

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Siu, N.; Khericha, S.; Conroy, S.; Beck, S.; Blackman, H.

    1996-09-01

    This letter report documents models for quantifying the likelihood of loss of spent fuel pool cooling; models for identifying post-boiling scenarios that lead to core damage; qualitative and quantitative results generated for a selected plant that account for plant design and operational practices; a comparison of these results and those generated from earlier studies; and a review of available data on spent fuel pool accidents. The results of this study show that for a representative two-unit boiling water reactor, the annual probability of spent fuel pool boiling is 5 {times} 10{sup {minus}5} and the annual probability of flooding associated with loss of spent fuel pool cooling scenarios is 1 {times} 10{sup {minus}3}. Qualitative arguments are provided to show that the likelihood of core damage due to spent fuel pool boiling accidents is low for most US commercial nuclear power plants. It is also shown that, depending on the design characteristics of a given plant, the likelihood of either: (a) core damage due to spent fuel pool-associated flooding, or (b) spent fuel damage due to pool dryout, may not be negligible.

  12. SR-Site groundwater flow modelling methodology, setup and results

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Selroos, Jan-Olof (Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co., Stockholm (Sweden)); Follin, Sven (SF GeoLogic AB, Taeby (Sweden))

    2010-12-15

    As a part of the license application for a final repository for spent nuclear fuel at Forsmark, the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB) has undertaken three groundwater flow modelling studies. These are performed within the SR-Site project and represent time periods with different climate conditions. The simulations carried out contribute to the overall evaluation of the repository design and long-term radiological safety. Three time periods are addressed; the Excavation and operational phases, the Initial period of temperate climate after closure, and the Remaining part of the reference glacial cycle. The present report is a synthesis of the background reports describing the modelling methodology, setup, and results. It is the primary reference for the conclusions drawn in a SR-Site specific context concerning groundwater flow during the three climate periods. These conclusions are not necessarily provided explicitly in the background reports, but are based on the results provided in these reports. The main results and comparisons presented in the present report are summarised in the SR-Site Main report.

  13. Loss of spent fuel pool cooling PRA: Model and results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Siu, N.; Khericha, S.; Conroy, S.; Beck, S.; Blackman, H.

    1996-09-01

    This letter report documents models for quantifying the likelihood of loss of spent fuel pool cooling; models for identifying post-boiling scenarios that lead to core damage; qualitative and quantitative results generated for a selected plant that account for plant design and operational practices; a comparison of these results and those generated from earlier studies; and a review of available data on spent fuel pool accidents. The results of this study show that for a representative two-unit boiling water reactor, the annual probability of spent fuel pool boiling is 5 x 10 -5 and the annual probability of flooding associated with loss of spent fuel pool cooling scenarios is 1 x 10 -3 . Qualitative arguments are provided to show that the likelihood of core damage due to spent fuel pool boiling accidents is low for most US commercial nuclear power plants. It is also shown that, depending on the design characteristics of a given plant, the likelihood of either: (a) core damage due to spent fuel pool-associated flooding, or (b) spent fuel damage due to pool dryout, may not be negligible

  14. PENGARUH MODEL PEMBELAJARAN KOOPERATIF MAKE A MATCH BERBANTUAN SLIDE SHARE TERHADAP HASIL BELAJAR KOGNITIF IPS DAN KETERAMPILAN SOSIAL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Udin Cahya Ari Prastya

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available This research is conducted due to the problems faced by the fifth graders of Ampelgading 01 Public Elementary School. They find difficulties in understanding social science subject, indicated by students’ learning outcomes. Only 5% students of class pass the Minimum Passing Criteria of 70. Teacher-centered learning decreases the interaction between teachers and students and students with students, which related to the development of social skills such. Therefore, interactive learning model is needed to build good classroom atmosphere and improve students’ interactions. One model of interactive learning is a Make a Match.This research used quantitative and quasi-experiment methods, Quasi-experimental design used is nonequivalent control group design, using independent t-test assisted with SPSS 16 software for data analysis.The research result presents following the treatment in experimental class using cooperative teaching modelMake a Match’ using slide share, average grade of posttest obtained from control group is 66,15 while the experimental class gained the average of 75,18; control class obtained social skills scores with the average of 45 and 61 for experimental class. t test result indicates the cognitive learning measured from gain score of pretest and posttest have significant value of 0.000 and social skills shows significant value of 0.000. It is known that 0.000> 0.05, indicates that is related to the effect of cooperative teaching modelMake a Match’ using slide share to the social science cognitive and social skill. Pelaksanaan penelitian ini dikarenakan adanya masalah yang dihadapi oleh siswa kelas V di SDN Ampelgading 01. Meraka merasa kesulitas dalam memahami materi mata pelajaran IPS, hal ini dibuktikan dengan nilai hasil belajar siswa yang mendapatkan nilai di atas KKM dengan nilai KKM 70 hanya 5% dari jumlah total keseluruan siswa. Pembelajaran guru yang bersifat aksi menimbulkan tidak adanya interaksi antara

  15. Integrating human and robot decision-making dynamics with feedback : Models and convergence analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cao, Ming; Stewart, Andrew; Leonard, Naomi Ehrich

    2008-01-01

    Leveraging research by psychologists on human decision-making, we present a human-robot decision-making problem associated with a complex task and study the corresponding joint decision-making dynamics. The collaborative task is designed so that the human makes decisions just as human subjects make

  16. Results of the benchmark for blade structural models, part A

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lekou, D.J.; Chortis, D.; Belen Fariñas, A.

    2013-01-01

    Task 2.2 of the InnWind.Eu project. The benchmark is based on the reference wind turbine and the reference blade provided by DTU [1]. "Structural Concept developers/modelers" of WP2 were provided with the necessary input for a comparison numerical simulation run, upon definition of the reference blade......A benchmark on structural design methods for blades was performed within the InnWind.Eu project under WP2 “Lightweight Rotor” Task 2.2 “Lightweight structural design”. The present document is describes the results of the comparison simulation runs that were performed by the partners involved within...

  17. Preliminary results of steel containment vessel model test

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matsumoto, T.; Komine, K.; Arai, S.

    1997-01-01

    A high pressure test of a mixed-scaled model (1:10 in geometry and 1:4 in shell thickness) of a steel containment vessel (SCV), representing an improved boiling water reactor (BWR) Mark II containment, was conducted on December 11-12, 1996 at Sandia National Laboratories. This paper describes the preliminary results of the high pressure test. In addition, the preliminary post-test measurement data and the preliminary comparison of test data with pretest analysis predictions are also presented

  18. Ultrasonographic diagnosis of biliary atresia based on a decision-making tree model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, So Mi; Cheon, Jung Eun; Choi, Young Hun; Kim, Woo Sun; Cho, Hyun Hye; Kim, In One; You, Sun Kyoung [Dept. of Radiology, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-12-15

    To assess the diagnostic value of various ultrasound (US) findings and to make a decision-tree model for US diagnosis of biliary atresia (BA). From March 2008 to January 2014, the following US findings were retrospectively evaluated in 100 infants with cholestatic jaundice (BA, n = 46; non-BA, n = 54): length and morphology of the gallbladder, triangular cord thickness, hepatic artery and portal vein diameters, and visualization of the common bile duct. Logistic regression analyses were performed to determine the features that would be useful in predicting BA. Conditional inference tree analysis was used to generate a decision-making tree for classifying patients into the BA or non-BA groups. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that abnormal gallbladder morphology and greater triangular cord thickness were significant predictors of BA (p = 0.003 and 0.001; adjusted odds ratio: 345.6 and 65.6, respectively). In the decision-making tree using conditional inference tree analysis, gallbladder morphology and triangular cord thickness (optimal cutoff value of triangular cord thickness, 3.4 mm) were also selected as significant discriminators for differential diagnosis of BA, and gallbladder morphology was the first discriminator. The diagnostic performance of the decision-making tree was excellent, with sensitivity of 100% (46/46), specificity of 94.4% (51/54), and overall accuracy of 97% (97/100). Abnormal gallbladder morphology and greater triangular cord thickness (> 3.4 mm) were the most useful predictors of BA on US. We suggest that the gallbladder morphology should be evaluated first and that triangular cord thickness should be evaluated subsequently in cases with normal gallbladder morphology.

  19. Ultrasonographic Diagnosis of Biliary Atresia Based on a Decision-Making Tree Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, So Mi; Cheon, Jung-Eun; Choi, Young Hun; Kim, Woo Sun; Cho, Hyun-Hae; Cho, Hyun-Hye; Kim, In-One; You, Sun Kyoung

    2015-01-01

    To assess the diagnostic value of various ultrasound (US) findings and to make a decision-tree model for US diagnosis of biliary atresia (BA). From March 2008 to January 2014, the following US findings were retrospectively evaluated in 100 infants with cholestatic jaundice (BA, n = 46; non-BA, n = 54): length and morphology of the gallbladder, triangular cord thickness, hepatic artery and portal vein diameters, and visualization of the common bile duct. Logistic regression analyses were performed to determine the features that would be useful in predicting BA. Conditional inference tree analysis was used to generate a decision-making tree for classifying patients into the BA or non-BA groups. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that abnormal gallbladder morphology and greater triangular cord thickness were significant predictors of BA (p = 0.003 and 0.001; adjusted odds ratio: 345.6 and 65.6, respectively). In the decision-making tree using conditional inference tree analysis, gallbladder morphology and triangular cord thickness (optimal cutoff value of triangular cord thickness, 3.4 mm) were also selected as significant discriminators for differential diagnosis of BA, and gallbladder morphology was the first discriminator. The diagnostic performance of the decision-making tree was excellent, with sensitivity of 100% (46/46), specificity of 94.4% (51/54), and overall accuracy of 97% (97/100). Abnormal gallbladder morphology and greater triangular cord thickness (> 3.4 mm) were the most useful predictors of BA on US. We suggest that the gallbladder morphology should be evaluated first and that triangular cord thickness should be evaluated subsequently in cases with normal gallbladder morphology.

  20. Making Steppingstones out of Stumbling Blocks: A New Bayesian Model Evidence Estimator with Application to Groundwater Model Selection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ye, M.; Elshall, A. S.; Tang, G.; Samani, S.

    2016-12-01

    Bayesian Model Evidence (BME) is the measure of the average fit of the model to data given all the parameter values that the model can take. By accounting for the trade-off between the model ability to reproduce the observation data and model complexity, BME estimates of candidate models are employed to calculate model weights, which are used for model selection and model averaging. This study shows that accurate estimation of the BME is important for penalizing models with more complexity. To improve the accuracy of BME estimation, we resort to Monte Carlo numerical estimators over semi-analytical solutions (such as Laplace approximations, BIC, KIC and other). This study examines prominent numerical estimators of BME that are the thermodynamic integration (TI), and the importance sampling methods of arithmetic mean (AM), harmonic mean (HM), and steppingstone sampling (SS). AM estimator (based on prior sampling) and HM estimator (based on posterior sampling) are straightforward to implement, yet they lead to under and over estimation, respectively. TI and SS improve beyond this by means of sampling multiple intermediate distributions that links the prior and the posterior, using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). TI and SS are theoretically unbiased estimators that are mathematically rigorous. Yet a theoretically unbiased estimator could have large bias in practice arising from numerical implementation, because MCMC sampling errors of certain intermediate distributions can introduce bias. We propose an SS variant, namely the multiple one-steppingstone sampling (MOSS), which turns these intermediate stumbling "blocks" of SS into steppingstones toward BME estimation. Thus, MOSS is less sensitive to MCMC sampling errors. We evaluate these estimators using a problem of groundwater transport model selection. The modeling results show that SS and MOSS estimators gave the most accurate results. In addition, the results show that the magnitude of the estimation error is a

  1. Quantum-Like Model for Decision Making Process in Two Players Game. A Non-Kolmogorovian Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asano, Masanari; Ohya, Masanori; Khrennikov, Andrei

    2011-03-01

    In experiments of games, players frequently make choices which are regarded as irrational in game theory. In papers of Khrennikov (Information Dynamics in Cognitive, Psychological and Anomalous Phenomena. Fundamental Theories of Physics, Kluwer Academic, Norwell, 2004; Fuzzy Sets Syst. 155:4-17, 2005; Biosystems 84:225-241, 2006; Found. Phys. 35(10):1655-1693, 2005; in QP-PQ Quantum Probability and White Noise Analysis, vol. XXIV, pp. 105-117, 2009), it was pointed out that statistics collected in such the experiments have "quantum-like" properties, which can not be explained in classical probability theory. In this paper, we design a simple quantum-like model describing a decision-making process in a two-players game and try to explain a mechanism of the irrational behavior of players. Finally we discuss a mathematical frame of non-Kolmogorovian system in terms of liftings (Accardi and Ohya, in Appl. Math. Optim. 39:33-59, 1999).

  2. Modelling in support of decision-making for South African extensive beef farmers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D.H. Meyer

    2003-12-01

    Full Text Available In this study it is shown that it is possible to build a decision support system for the use of South African extensive beef farmers. Initially models for the key variables which affect extensive beef farmers are developed. These key variables include rainfall, beef, veal and weaner prices and the condition of the veld. This last key variable is monitored using the voluntary lick intake of the cattle and is modelled in terms of rainfall and stocking intensity. Particular attention is paid to the interrelationships between the key variables and to the distribution of modelling errors. The next stage of the study concerns the use of these models as a decision-support tool for extensive beef farmers. It is shown that Monte Carlo simulations and dynamic programming analyses can use these models to suggest how gross margins can be increased. At the same time these methods can be used to monitor the effect of management decisions on mean lick intake and, hence, the effect of these decisions on the condition of the veld. In particular the decisions of "what stocking intensity", "what cattle system", "when to sell" and "when to make a change" are addressed.

  3. Law machines: scale models, forensic materiality and the making of modern patent law.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pottage, Alain

    2011-10-01

    Early US patent law was machine made. Before the Patent Office took on the function of examining patent applications in 1836, questions of novelty and priority were determined in court, within the forum of the infringement action. And at all levels of litigation, from the circuit courts up to the Supreme Court, working models were the media through which doctrine, evidence and argument were made legible, communicated and interpreted. A model could be set on a table, pointed at, picked up, rotated or upended so as to display a point of interest to a particular audience within the courtroom, and, crucially, set in motion to reveal the 'mode of operation' of a machine. The immediate object of demonstration was to distinguish the intangible invention from its tangible embodiment, but models also'machined' patent law itself. Demonstrations of patent claims with models articulated and resolved a set of conceptual tensions that still make the definition and apprehension of the invention difficult, even today, but they resolved these tensions in the register of materiality, performativity and visibility, rather than the register of conceptuality. The story of models tells us something about how inventions emerge and subsist within the context of patent litigation and patent doctrine, and it offers a starting point for renewed reflection on the question of how technology becomes property.

  4. Making Energy-Efficiency and Productivity Investments in Commercial Buildings: Choice of Investment Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jones, D.W.

    2002-05-16

    This study examines the decision to invest in buildings and the types of investment decision rules that may be employed to inform the ''go--no go'' decision. There is a range of decision making tools available to help in investment choices, which range from simple rules of thumb such as payback periods, to life-cycle analysis, to decision theoretic approaches. Payback period analysis tends to point toward lower first costs, whereas life-cycle analysis tends to minimize uncertainties over future events that can affect profitability. We conclude that investment models that integrate uncertainty offer better explanations for the behavior that is observed, i.e., people tend to delay investments in technologies that life-cycle analysis finds cost-effective, and these models also lead to an alternative set of policies targeted at reducing of managing uncertainty.

  5. Planning a Stigmatized Nonvisible Illness Disclosure: Applying the Disclosure Decision-Making Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Soe Yoon; Venetis, Maria K.; Greene, Kathryn; Magsamen-Conrad, Kate; Checton, Maria G.; Banerjee, Smita C.

    2016-01-01

    This study applied the disclosure decision-making model (DD-MM) to explore how individuals plan to disclose nonvisible illness (Study 1), compared to planning to disclose personal information (Study 2). Study 1 showed that perceived stigma from the illness negatively predicted disclosure efficacy; closeness predicted anticipated response (i.e., provision of support) although it did not influence disclosure efficacy; disclosure efficacy led to reduced planning, with planning leading to scheduling. Study 2 demonstrated that when information was considered to be intimate, it negatively influenced disclosure efficacy. Unlike the model with stigma (Study 1), closeness positively predicted both anticipated response and disclosure efficacy. The rest of the hypothesized relationships showed a similar pattern to Study 1: disclosure efficacy reduced planning, which then positively influenced scheduling. Implications of understanding stages of planning for stigmatized information are discussed. PMID:27662447

  6. Making the most of what we have: application of extrapolation approaches in radioecological wildlife transfer models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beresford, Nicholas A.; Wood, Michael D.; Vives i Batlle, Jordi; Yankovich, Tamara L.; Bradshaw, Clare; Willey, Neil

    2016-01-01

    We will never have data to populate all of the potential radioecological modelling parameters required for wildlife assessments. Therefore, we need robust extrapolation approaches which allow us to make best use of our available knowledge. This paper reviews and, in some cases, develops, tests and validates some of the suggested extrapolation approaches. The concentration ratio (CR product-diet or CR wo-diet ) is shown to be a generic (trans-species) parameter which should enable the more abundant data for farm animals to be applied to wild species. An allometric model for predicting the biological half-life of radionuclides in vertebrates is further tested and generally shown to perform acceptably. However, to fully exploit allometry we need to understand why some elements do not scale to expected values. For aquatic ecosystems, the relationship between log 10 (a) (a parameter from the allometric relationship for the organism-water concentration ratio) and log(K d ) presents a potential opportunity to estimate concentration ratios using K d values. An alternative approach to the CR wo-media model proposed for estimating the transfer of radionuclides to freshwater fish is used to satisfactorily predict activity concentrations in fish of different species from three lakes. We recommend that this approach (REML modelling) be further investigated and developed for other radionuclides and across a wider range of organisms and ecosystems. Ecological stoichiometry shows potential as an extrapolation method in radioecology, either from one element to another or from one species to another. Although some of the approaches considered require further development and testing, we demonstrate the potential to significantly improve predictions of radionuclide transfer to wildlife by making better use of available data. - Highlights: • Robust extrapolation approaches allowing best use of available knowledge are needed. • Extrapolation approaches are reviewed, developed

  7. Modelling Investment Attractiveness of a Public Joint Stock Company as the Basis of Managerial Decision Making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brukhovetskaya Natalia E.

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The article analyses factors of influence upon investment attractiveness of a public joint stock company, which are factors by the sphere of origin. The article identifies the degree and direction of influence of the factors by the sphere of origin upon investment attractiveness of a public joint stock company; factors are divided into two groups, which could be regulated directly by society and which cannot be regulated. It justifies the necessity of modelling investment attractiveness of a public joint stock company under influence of the factors with the aim of managerial decision making of two groups of stakeholders: owners and managers, shareholders and investors. It conducts modelling of investment attractiveness of a public joint stock company using the decision tree method. It develops a decision matrix, on the basis of which the owners, managers, shareholders and investors can make decisions regarding directions of increase of investment attractiveness of a public joint stock company and expediency of initial or further investing into society development.

  8. Impaired Decision Making and Loss of Inhibitory-Control in a Rat Model of Huntington Disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    El Massioui, Nicole; Lamirault, Charlotte; Yagüe, Sara; Adjeroud, Najia; Garces, Daniel; Maillard, Alexis; Tallot, Lucille; Yu-Taeger, Libo; Riess, Olaf; Allain, Philippe; Nguyen, Huu Phuc; von Hörsten, Stephan; Doyère, Valérie

    2016-01-01

    Cognitive deficits associated with Huntington disease (HD) are generally dominated by executive function disorders often associated with disinhibition and impulsivity/compulsivity. Few studies have directly examined symptoms and consequences of behavioral disinhibition in HD and its relation with decision-making. To assess the different forms of impulsivity in a transgenic model of HD (tgHD rats), two tasks assessing cognitive/choice impulsivity were used: risky decision-making with a rat gambling task (RGT) and intertemporal choices with a delay discounting task (DD). To assess waiting or action impulsivity the differential reinforcement of low rate of responding task (DRL) was used. In parallel, the volume as well as cellular activity of the amygdala was analyzed. In contrast to WT rats, 15 months old tgHD rats exhibited a poor efficiency in the RGT task with difficulties to choose advantageous options, a steep DD curve as delays increased in the DD task and a high rate of premature and bursts responses in the DRL task. tgHD rats also demonstrated a concomitant and correlated presence of both action and cognitive/choice impulsivity in contrast to wild type (WT) animals. Moreover, a reduced volume associated with an increased basal cellular activity of the central nucleus of amygdala indicated a dysfunctional amygdala in tgHD rats, which could underlie inhibitory dyscontrol. In conclusion, tgHD rats are a good model for impulsivity disorder that could be used more widely to identify potential pharmacotherapies to treat these invasive symptoms in HD.

  9. Prioritization of water management for sustainability using hydrologic simulation model and multicriteria decision making techniques.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chung, Eun-Sung; Lee, Kil Seong

    2009-03-01

    The objective of this study is to develop an alternative evaluation index (AEI) in order to determine the priorities of a range of alternatives using both the hydrological simulation program in FORTRAN (HSPF) and multicriteria decision making (MCDM) techniques. In order to formulate the HSPF model, sensitivity analyses of water quantity (peak discharge and total volume) and quality (BOD peak concentrations and total loads) are conducted and a number of critical parameters were selected. To achieve a more precise simulation, the study watershed is divided into four regions for calibration and verification according to landuse, location, slope, and climate data. All evaluation criteria were selected using the Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) model, a sustainability evaluation concept. The Analytic Hierarchy Process is used to estimate the weights of the criteria and the effects of water quantity and quality were quantified by HSPF simulation. In addition, AEIs that reflected residents' preferences for management objectives are proposed in order to induce the stakeholder to participate in the decision making process.

  10. The necessary burden of involving stakeholders in agent-based modelling for education and decision-making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bommel, P.; Bautista Solís, P.; Leclerc, G.

    2016-12-01

    We implemented a participatory process with water stakeholders for improving resilience to drought at watershed scale, and for reducing water pollution disputes in drought prone Northwestern Costa Rica. The purpose is to facilitate co-management in a rural watershed impacted by recurrent droughts related to ENSO. The process involved designing "ContaMiCuenca", a hybrid agent-based model where users can specify the decisions of their agents. We followed a Companion Modeling approach (www.commod.org) and organized 10 workshops that included research techniques such as participatory diagnostics, actor-resources-interaction and UML diagrams, multi-agents model design, and interactive simulation sessions. We collectively assessed the main water issues in the watershed, prioritized their importance, defined the objectives of the process, and pilot-tested ContaMiCuenca for environmental education with adults and children. Simulation sessions resulted in debates about the need to improve the model accuracy, arguably more relevant for decision-making. This helped identify sensible knowledge gaps in the groundwater pollution and aquifer dynamics that need to be addressed in order to improve our collective learning. Significant mismatches among participants expectations, objectives, and agendas considerably slowed down the participatory process. The main issue may originate in participants expecting technical solutions from a positivist science, as constantly promoted in the region by dole-out initiatives, which is incompatible with the constructivist stance of participatory modellers. This requires much closer interaction of community members with modellers, which may be hard to attain in the current research practice and institutional context. Nevertheless, overcoming these constraints is necessary for a true involvement of water stakeholders to achieve community-based decisions that facilitate integrated water management. Our findings provide significant guidance for

  11. Helping Italian science teachers to make earth and climate active lessons. Results of 3 years support with the ICLEEN project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cattadori, M.

    2013-12-01

    It has been demonstrated that in Italy Earth and Climate System Sciences Education (ESS) is one of the scientific disciplines where science teachers show a greatest need in terms of professional support. Among the causes that have been reported we should mention: the predominance of science teachers with a degree in biological disciplines rather then geo-logical or physical topics, and the high interdisciplinarity of certain topics, in particular those related to the climate system. Furthermore, it was found that ESS topics are predominant in the science curricula of those grades in which have been reported the major students dropout rates during the whole italian school cycle . In this context, in 2010, the MUSE, the Museum of Science of Trento (Italy), created a web-based service named I-Cleen (Inquring on Climate and Energy www.icleen.muse.it). This is a tool aimed at promoting the collaboration among science teachers in order to share resources and enhance the professional collaboration by means of participatory methods and models belonging to the world of open source and open content. The main instrument of the I-CLEEN project is an online repository (with metadata compliant with the DCMI and LOM international standards) of teaching resources focused on Earth and Climate Sciences all published under the Creative Commons license Attribution 3.0 and therefore, belonging to the model of OER (Open Educational Resources). The service has been designed, developed and managed by a team consisting of very experiencing science teachers and scientists from the Museum and other partners research institutions. The editorial work is carried out online utilizing a specific platform made with LifeRay, a CMS (Content Management System) software that is open source and manageable in a single Java-frameworked environment using the dbase, the website, the editorial process and several web 2.0 services. The project has been subjected to two distinct testing activities in

  12. Impact Flash Physics: Modeling and Comparisons With Experimental Results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rainey, E.; Stickle, A. M.; Ernst, C. M.; Schultz, P. H.; Mehta, N. L.; Brown, R. C.; Swaminathan, P. K.; Michaelis, C. H.; Erlandson, R. E.

    2015-12-01

    horizontal. High-speed radiometer measurements were made of the time-dependent impact flash at wavelengths of 350-1100 nm. We will present comparisons between these measurements and the output of APL's model. The results of this validation allow us to determine basic relationships between observed optical signatures and impact conditions.

  13. The Internationalisation Cube. A Tentative Model for the Study of Organisational Designs and the Results of Internationalisation in Higher Education.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Dijk, Hans; Meijer, Kees

    1997-01-01

    Based on results of a Dutch study concerning internationalization of higher education, a model for analyzing the internal institutional process of decision making for, organization of, and implementation of international activities is described. The model positions institutions according to three dimensions: policy (importance attached to…

  14. Uncertainties in future-proof decision-making: the Dutch Delta Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    IJmker, Janneke; Snippen, Edwin; Ruijgh, Erik

    2013-04-01

    In 1953, a number of European countries experienced flooding after a major storm event coming from the northwest. Over 2100 people died of the resulting floods, 1800 of them being Dutch. This gave rise to the development of the so-called Delta Works and Zuiderzee Works that strongly reduced the flood risk in the Netherlands. These measures were a response to a large flooding event. As boundary conditions have changed (increasing population, increasing urban development, etc.) , the flood risk should be evaluated continuously, and measures should be taken if necessary. The Delta Programme was designed to be prepared for future changes and to limit the flood risk, taking into account economics, nature, landscape, residence and recreation . To support decisions in the Delta Programme, the Delta Model was developed. By using four different input scenarios (extremes in climate and economics) and variations in system setup, the outcomes of the Delta Model represent a range of possible outcomes for the hydrological situation in 2050 and 2100. These results flow into effect models that give insight in the integrated effects on freshwater supply (including navigation, industry and ecology) and flood risk. As the long-term water management policy of the Netherlands for the next decades will be based on these results, they have to be reliable. Therefore, a study was carried out to investigate the impact of uncertainties on the model outcomes. The study focused on "known unknowns": uncertainties in the boundary conditions, in the parameterization and in the model itself. This showed that for different parts of the Netherlands, the total uncertainty is in the order of meters! Nevertheless, (1) the total uncertainty is dominated by uncertainties in boundary conditions. Internal model uncertainties are subordinate to that. Furthermore, (2) the model responses develop in a logical way, such that the exact model outcomes might be uncertain, but the outcomes of different model runs

  15. Decision Making Models in the Financial Market: A Study in the Light of Prospect Theory and Limited Rationality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alex Diego Souza Queiroz

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study was to determine whether the decision-making models present in Prospect Theory and the theory of limited rationality could help managers of financial institutions identify and control the emotions and rational limitations involved in the credit granting process in the financial market. To this end, a study was carried out with 17 bank managers as experimental group and 31 other managers from different areas as control group. Adopting a quantitative approach to research, questionnaires were sent electronically to a number of bank branches. Five scenarios were presented, seeking to identify the influence of behavioral factors on decisions in situations of risk. In addition, emotional triggers were included in some questions in order to verify the influence of this component on responses. Results were treated with SPSS software, using descriptive analysis of data and the statistical test Chi-square (χ². Results observed for the five scenarios indicated that emotions and limited rationality in complex environments tend to influence managers in their decision-making process. The study evidence suggests differences in decision-making in accordance with how the problem is presented.

  16. Modelling ADHD: A review of ADHD theories through their predictions for computational models of decision-making and reinforcement learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ziegler, Sigurd; Pedersen, Mads L; Mowinckel, Athanasia M; Biele, Guido

    2016-12-01

    Attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is characterized by altered decision-making (DM) and reinforcement learning (RL), for which competing theories propose alternative explanations. Computational modelling contributes to understanding DM and RL by integrating behavioural and neurobiological findings, and could elucidate pathogenic mechanisms behind ADHD. This review of neurobiological theories of ADHD describes predictions for the effect of ADHD on DM and RL as described by the drift-diffusion model of DM (DDM) and a basic RL model. Empirical studies employing these models are also reviewed. While theories often agree on how ADHD should be reflected in model parameters, each theory implies a unique combination of predictions. Empirical studies agree with the theories' assumptions of a lowered DDM drift rate in ADHD, while findings are less conclusive for boundary separation. The few studies employing RL models support a lower choice sensitivity in ADHD, but not an altered learning rate. The discussion outlines research areas for further theoretical refinement in the ADHD field. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Application of Spatial Models in Making Location Decisions of Wind Power Plant in Poland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Płuciennik, Monika; Hełdak, Maria; Szczepański, Jakub; Patrzałek, Ciechosław

    2017-10-01

    In this paper,we explore the process of making decisions on the location of wind power plants in Poland in connection with a gradually increasing consumption of energy from renewable sources and the increase of impact problems of such facilities. The location of new wind power plants attracts much attention, and both positive and negative publicity. Visualisations can be of assistance when choosing the most advantageous location for a plant, as three-dimensional variants of the facility to be constructed can be prepared. This work involves terrestrial laser scanning of an existing wind power plant and 3D modelling followed by. The model could be subsequently used in visualisation of real terrain, with special purpose in local land development plan. This paper shows a spatial model of a wind power plant as a new element of a capital investment process in Poland. Next, we incorporate the model into an undeveloped site, intended for building a wind farm, subject to the requirements for location of power plants.

  18. Integrated decision making model for urban disaster management: A multi-objective genetic algorithm approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Esmaeili

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In recent decays, there has been an extensive improvement in technology and knowledge; hence, human societies have started to fortify their urban environment against the natural disasters in order to diminish the context of vulnerability. Local administrators as well as government officials are thinking about new options for disaster management programs within their territories. Planning to set up local disaster management facilities and stock pre-positioning of relief items can keep an urban area prepared for a natural disaster. In this paper, based on a real-world case study for a municipal district in Tehran, a multi-objective mathematical model is developed for the location-distribution problem. The proposed model considers the role of demand in an urban area, which might be affected by neighbor wards. Integrating decision-making process for a disaster helps to improve a better relief operation during response phase of disaster management cycle. In the proposed approach, a proactive damage estimation method is used to estimate demands for the district based on worst-case scenario of earthquake in Tehran. Since such model is designed for an entire urban district, it is considered to be a large-scale mixed integer problem and hence, a genetic algorithm is developed to solve the model.

  19. Psychosocial determinants of parental human papillomavirus (HPV vaccine decision-making for sons: Methodological challenges and initial results of a pan-Canadian longitudinal study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Samara Perez

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background HPV vaccination decision-making is a complex process that is influenced by multiple psychosocial determinants. Given the change in policy recommendation to include males in routine HPV vaccination, our goals were to assess the HPV vaccination uptake in Canada, to understand where Canadian parents were situated in the HPV vaccine decision-making process for their son, how they changed over time and which psychosocial determinants were relevant for this process. Methods We used an online survey methodology and collected data from a nationally representative sample of Canadian parents of boys aged 9–16 at baseline (T1, February 2014 and at 9 months’ follow-up (T2. Our analyses were guided by the Precaution Adoption Process Model (PAPM, a theoretical health behavior model that classifies parents in one of six stages: unaware, unengaged, undecided, decided not to vaccinate, decided to vaccinate and those who had already vaccinated their sons. Rigorous methods were used to filter out careless responders: response variance, bogus items, psychometric antonyms and psychometric synonyms. Results At T1 and T2, we received 3,784 and 1,608 respectively completed questionnaires; after data cleaning 3,117 (T1 and 1,427 (T2 were retained. Less than 3% of boys were vaccinated at both time points. At both T1 and T2, most parents (over 70% belonged to the earlier vaccination adoption stages: 57% were unaware (T1 and 15.3% (T2; 20.9% were unengaged (T1 and 32.4% (T2; and 9.1% were undecided (T1 and 25.2% (T2. At follow-up, 37.7% of participants did not move from their initial PAPM decision-making stage. Most parents (55% preferred to receive information from their healthcare provider (HCP but only 6% (T1 and 12% (T2 had actually spoken with a HCP about the HPV vaccine for their son. Conclusions HPV vaccination uptake in Canadian boys was very low in the absence of a publicly funded HPV vaccination programs for boys. Optimal HPV information

  20. Position-sensitive transition edge sensor modeling and results

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hammock, Christina E-mail: chammock@milkyway.gsfc.nasa.gov; Figueroa-Feliciano, Enectali; Apodaca, Emmanuel; Bandler, Simon; Boyce, Kevin; Chervenak, Jay; Finkbeiner, Fred; Kelley, Richard; Lindeman, Mark; Porter, Scott; Saab, Tarek; Stahle, Caroline

    2004-03-11

    We report the latest design and experimental results for a Position-Sensitive Transition-Edge Sensor (PoST). The PoST is motivated by the desire to achieve a larger field-of-view without increasing the number of readout channels. A PoST consists of a one-dimensional array of X-ray absorbers connected on each end to a Transition Edge Sensor (TES). Position differentiation is achieved through a comparison of pulses between the two TESs and X-ray energy is inferred from a sum of the two signals. Optimizing such a device involves studying the available parameter space which includes device properties such as heat capacity and thermal conductivity as well as TES read-out circuitry parameters. We present results for different regimes of operation and the effects on energy resolution, throughput, and position differentiation. Results and implications from a non-linear model developed to study the saturation effects unique to PoSTs are also presented.

  1. Comparison of blade-strike modeling results with empirical data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ploskey, Gene R. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Carlson, Thomas J. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2004-03-01

    This study is the initial stage of further investigation into the dynamics of injury to fish during passage through a turbine runner. As part of the study, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) estimated the probability of blade strike, and associated injury, as a function of fish length and turbine operating geometry at two adjacent turbines in Powerhouse 1 of Bonneville Dam. Units 5 and 6 had identical intakes, stay vanes, wicket gates, and draft tubes, but Unit 6 had a new runner and curved discharge ring to minimize gaps between the runner hub and blades and between the blade tips and discharge ring. We used a mathematical model to predict blade strike associated with two Kaplan turbines and compared results with empirical data from biological tests conducted in 1999 and 2000. Blade-strike models take into consideration the geometry of the turbine blades and discharges as well as fish length, orientation, and distribution along the runner. The first phase of this study included a sensitivity analysis to consider the effects of difference in geometry and operations between families of turbines on the strike probability response surface. The analysis revealed that the orientation of fish relative to the leading edge of a runner blade and the location that fish pass along the blade between the hub and blade tip are critical uncertainties in blade-strike models. Over a range of discharges, the average prediction of injury from blade strike was two to five times higher than average empirical estimates of visible injury from shear and mechanical devices. Empirical estimates of mortality may be better metrics for comparison to predicted injury rates than other injury measures for fish passing at mid-blade and blade-tip locations.

  2. Single-process versus multiple-strategy models of decision making: evidence from an information intrusion paradigm.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Söllner, Anke; Bröder, Arndt; Glöckner, Andreas; Betsch, Tilmann

    2014-02-01

    When decision makers are confronted with different problems and situations, do they use a uniform mechanism as assumed by single-process models (SPMs) or do they choose adaptively from a set of available decision strategies as multiple-strategy models (MSMs) imply? Both frameworks of decision making have gathered a lot of support, but only rarely have they been contrasted with each other. Employing an information intrusion paradigm for multi-attribute decisions from givens, SPM and MSM predictions on information search, decision outcomes, attention, and confidence judgments were derived and tested against each other in two experiments. The results consistently support the SPM view: Participants seemingly using a "take-the-best" (TTB) strategy do not ignore TTB-irrelevant information as MSMs would predict, but adapt the amount of information searched, choose alternative choice options, and show varying confidence judgments contingent on the quality of the "irrelevant" information. The uniformity of these findings underlines the adequacy of the novel information intrusion paradigm and comprehensively promotes the notion of a uniform decision making mechanism as assumed by single-process models. Copyright © 2013 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. Model For Marketing Strategy Decision Based On Multicriteria Decicion Making: A Case Study In Batik Madura Industry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anna, I. D.; Cahyadi, I.; Yakin, A.

    2018-01-01

    Selection of marketing strategy is a prominent competitive advantage for small and medium enterprises business development. The selection process is is a multiple criteria decision-making problem, which includes evaluation of various attributes or criteria in a process of strategy formulation. The objective of this paper is to develop a model for the selection of a marketing strategy in Batik Madura industry. The current study proposes an integrated approach based on analytic network process (ANP) and technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) to determine the best strategy for Batik Madura marketing problems. Based on the results of group decision-making technique, this study selected fourteen criteria, including consistency, cost, trend following, customer loyalty, business volume, uniqueness manpower, customer numbers, promotion, branding, bussiness network, outlet location, credibility and the inovation as Batik Madura marketing strategy evaluation criteria. A survey questionnaire developed from literature review was distributed to a sample frame of Batik Madura SMEs in Pamekasan. In the decision procedure step, expert evaluators were asked to establish the decision matrix by comparing the marketing strategy alternatives under each of the individual criteria. Then, considerations obtained from ANP and TOPSIS methods were applied to build the specific criteria constraints and range of the launch strategy in the model. The model in this study demonstrates that, under current business situation, Straight-focus marketing strategy is the best marketing strategy for Batik Madura SMEs in Pamekasan.

  4. Towards representing human behavior and decision making in Earth system models - an overview of techniques and approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Müller-Hansen, Finn; Schlüter, Maja; Mäs, Michael; Donges, Jonathan F.; Kolb, Jakob J.; Thonicke, Kirsten; Heitzig, Jobst

    2017-11-01

    Today, humans have a critical impact on the Earth system and vice versa, which can generate complex feedback processes between social and ecological dynamics. Integrating human behavior into formal Earth system models (ESMs), however, requires crucial modeling assumptions about actors and their goals, behavioral options, and decision rules, as well as modeling decisions regarding human social interactions and the aggregation of individuals' behavior. Here, we review existing modeling approaches and techniques from various disciplines and schools of thought dealing with human behavior at different levels of decision making. We demonstrate modelers' often vast degrees of freedom but also seek to make modelers aware of the often crucial consequences of seemingly innocent modeling assumptions. After discussing which socioeconomic units are potentially important for ESMs, we compare models of individual decision making that correspond to alternative behavioral theories and that make diverse modeling assumptions about individuals' preferences, beliefs, decision rules, and foresight. We review approaches to model social interaction, covering game theoretic frameworks, models of social influence, and network models. Finally, we discuss approaches to studying how the behavior of individuals, groups, and organizations can aggregate to complex collective phenomena, discussing agent-based, statistical, and representative-agent modeling and economic macro-dynamics. We illustrate the main ingredients of modeling techniques with examples from land-use dynamics as one of the main drivers of environmental change bridging local to global scales.

  5. Can plasticity make spatial structure irrelevant in individual-tree models?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oscar García

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Background Distance-dependent individual-tree models have commonly been found to add little predictive power to that of distance-independent ones. One possible reason is plasticity, the ability of trees to lean and to alter crown and root development to better occupy available growing space. Being able to redeploy foliage (and roots into canopy gaps and less contested areas can diminish the importance of stem ground locations. Methods Plasticity was simulated for 3 intensively measured forest stands, to see to what extent and under what conditions the allocation of resources (e.g., light to the individual trees depended on their ground coordinates. The data came from 50 × 60 m stem-mapped plots in natural monospecific stands of jack pine, trembling aspen and black spruce from central Canada. Explicit perfect-plasticity equations were derived for tessellation-type models. Results Qualitatively similar simulation results were obtained under a variety of modelling assumptions. The effects of plasticity varied somewhat with stand uniformity and with assumed plasticity limits and other factors. Stand-level implications for canopy depth, distribution modelling and total productivity were examined. Conclusions Generally, under what seem like conservative maximum plasticity constraints, spatial structure accounted for less than 10% of the variance in resource allocation. The perfect-plasticity equations approximated well the simulation results from tessellation models, but not those from models with less extreme competition asymmetry. Whole-stand perfect plasticity approximations seem an attractive alternative to individual-tree models.

  6. Risk, reward, and decision-making in a rodent model of cognitive aging

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ryan J Gilbert

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Impaired decision-making in aging can directly impact factors (financial security, quality of healthcare that are critical to maintaining quality of life and independence at advanced ages. Naturalistic rodent models mimic human aging in other cognitive domains, and afford the opportunity to parse the effects of age on discrete aspects of decision-making in a manner relatively uncontaminated by experiential factors. Young adult (5-7 mo. and aged (23-25 mo. male F344 rats were trained on a probability discounting task in which they made discrete-trial choices between a small certain reward (1 food pellet and a large but uncertain reward (2 food pellets with varying probabilities of delivery ranging from 100% to 0%. Young rats chose the large reward when it was associated with a high probability of delivery and shifted to the smaller but certain reward as probability of the large reward decreased. As a group, aged rats performed comparably to young, but there was significantly greater variance among aged rats. One subgroup of aged rats showed strong preference for the small certain reward. This preference was maintained under conditions in which large reward delivery was certain, suggesting decreased sensitivity to reward magnitude. In contrast, another subgroup of aged rats showed strong preference for the large reward at low probabilities of delivery. Interestingly, this subgroup also showed elevated preference for probabilistic rewards when reward magnitudes were equalized. Previous findings using this same aged study population described strongly attenuated discounting of delayed rewards with age, together suggesting that a subgroup of aged rats may have deficits associated with accounting for costs (i.e., delay, probability. These deficits in cost-accounting were dissociable from the age-related differences in sensitivity to reward magnitude, suggesting that aging influences multiple, distinct neural mechanisms that can impact cost

  7. Top Management Teams’ Characteristics and Strategic Decision-Making: A Mediation of Risk Perceptions and Mental Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tungju Wu

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Strategic decision-making is a key factor of sustainability and development in enterprises. Moreover, the top management team (TMT of an enterprise constitutes the base for decision-making. This study employed structural equation modeling to analyze questionnaires regarding TMTs’ characteristics and strategic decision-making, and tested the mediating effects of risk perceptions and mental models and the moderating effects of psychological ownership. We investigated 289 valid questionnaires on TMTs completed by representatives from enterprises in China and found risk perceptions and mental models that serve as a mediating factor and are affected by the TMTs’ characteristics and decision-making. We also found that psychological ownership exerts moderating effects between TMTs’ characteristics and decision-making. This paper concludes with a discussion of theoretical and managerial implications for enterprise owners.

  8. The use of multi-criteria decision making models in evaluating anesthesia method options in circumcision surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hancerliogullari, Gulsah; Hancerliogullari, Kadir Oymen; Koksalmis, Emrah

    2017-01-23

    Determining the most suitable anesthesia method for circumcision surgery plays a fundamental role in pediatric surgery. This study is aimed to present pediatric surgeons' perspective on the relative importance of the criteria for selecting anesthesia method for circumcision surgery by utilizing the multi-criteria decision making methods. Fuzzy set theory offers a useful tool for transforming linguistic terms into numerical assessments. Since the evaluation of anesthesia methods requires linguistic terms, we utilize the fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and fuzzy Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS). Both mathematical decision-making methods are originated from individual judgements for qualitative factors utilizing the pair-wise comparison matrix. Our model uses four main criteria, eight sub-criteria as well as three alternatives. To assess the relative priorities, an online questionnaire was completed by three experts, pediatric surgeons, who had experience with circumcision surgery. Discussion of the results with the experts indicates that time-related factors are the most important criteria, followed by psychology, convenience and duration. Moreover, general anesthesia with penile block for circumcision surgery is the preferred choice of anesthesia compared to general anesthesia without penile block, which has a greater priority compared to local anesthesia under the discussed main-criteria and sub-criteria. The results presented in this study highlight the need to integrate surgeons' criteria into the decision making process for selecting anesthesia methods. This is the first study in which multi-criteria decision making tools, specifically fuzzy AHP and fuzzy TOPSIS, are used to evaluate anesthesia methods for a pediatric surgical procedure.

  9. Indigeneity-Grounded Analysis (IGA as Policy(-Making Lens: New Zealand Models, Canadian Realities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roger Maaka

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available Engaging politically with the principles of indigeneity is neither an option nor a cop out. The emergence of Indigenous peoples as prime-time players on the world’s political stage attests to the timeliness and relevance of indigeneity in advancing a new postcolonial contract for living together differently. Insofar as the principles of indigeneity are inextricably linked with challenge, resistance, and transformation, this paper argues that reference to indigeneity as policy(- making paradigm is both necessary and overdue. To put this argument to the test, the politics of Maori indigeneity in Aotearoa New Zealand are analyzed and assessed in constructing an indigeneity agenda model. The political implications of an indigeneity-policy nexus are then applied to the realities of Canada’s Indigenous/Aboriginal peoples. The paper contends that, just as the Government is committed to a gender based analysis (GBA for improving policy outcomes along gender lines, so too should the principles of indigeneity (or aboriginality secure an indigeneity grounded analysis (IGA framework for minimizing systemic policy bias while maximizing Indigenous peoples inputs. The paper concludes by theorizing those provisional first principles that inform an IGA framework as a policy (-making lens.

  10. The finite element method in making up meshes in ANSYS Meshing for CFD models

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    Віктор Іванович Троханяк

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Method of finite elements (FEM is used in calculating tasks of hydrodynamics and heat transfer tasks. The essence of the method consists in the approximate solution of a variational task. To formulate this task a functional concept is used. The type of a functional is different for different tasks and is selected through a special choice. Currently FEM is widely used in calculating the strength and in solving tasks of heat transfer in solids. However, it can be applied in calculating the flow of liquids and gases. There are also methods that combine elements of the finite volumes and finite elements methods. The combination of these methods make it possible to use a wide range of computational meshes ( tetragonal meshes, pyramidal meshes, prismatic meshes, polyhedral meshes what is necessary for solving tasks with complex geometry. This approach is used by CFD packages Ansys CFX, Ansys Fluent, Star-CD, Star-CCM +, Comsol and others. The method and the analysis of 2D mesh were carried out, using a method of final elements in ANSYS Meshing for heat exchangers with an inline arrangement of tubes in banks and with their curvilinear arrangement in compact banks of tubes of a new design. Particular features were considered and the algorithm of making up a mesh was developed for tasks of hydraulic and gas dynamics and thermal mass transfer. The most optimum and qualitative meshes for CFD models were chosen

  11. The effects of juvenile stress on anxiety, cognitive bias and decision making in adulthood: a rat model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nichola M Brydges

    Full Text Available Stress experienced in childhood is associated with an increased risk of developing psychiatric disorders in adulthood. These disorders are particularly characterized by disturbances to emotional and cognitive processes, which are not currently fully modeled in animals. Assays of cognitive bias have recently been used with animals to give an indication of their emotional/cognitive state. We used a cognitive bias test, alongside a traditional measure of anxiety (elevated plus maze, to investigate the effects of juvenile stress (JS on adulthood behaviour using a rodent model. During the cognitive bias test, animals were trained to discriminate between two reward bowls based on a stimulus (rough/smooth sandpaper encountered before they reached the bowls. One stimulus (e.g. rough was associated with a lower value reward than the other (e.g. smooth. Once rats were trained, their cognitive bias was explored through the presentation of an ambiguous stimulus (intermediate grade sandpaper: a rat was classed as optimistic if it chose the bowl ordinarily associated with the high value reward. JS animals were lighter than controls, exhibited increased anxiety-like behaviour in the elevated plus maze and were more optimistic in the cognitive bias test. This increased optimism may represent an optimal foraging strategy for these underweight animals. JS animals were also faster than controls to make a decision when presented with an ambiguous stimulus, suggesting altered decision making. These results demonstrate that stress in the juvenile phase can increase anxiety-like behaviour and alter cognitive bias and decision making in adulthood in a rat model.

  12. The role of process data in the development and testing of process models of judgment and decision making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael Schulte-Mecklenbeck

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this article is to evaluate the contribution of process tracing data to the development and testing of models of judgment and decision making (JDM. We draw on our experience of editing the ``Handbook of process tracing methods for decision research'' recently published in the SJDM series. After a brief introduction we first describe classic process tracing methods (thinking aloud, Mouselab, eye-tracking. Then we present a series of examples of how each of these techniques has made important contributions to the development and testing of process models of JDM. We discuss the issue of large data volumes resulting from process tracing and remedies for handling those. Finally, we argue for the importance of formulating process hypotheses and opt for a multi-method approach that focuses on the cross-validation of findings.

  13. Using mental-modelling to explore how irrigators in the Murray–Darling Basin make water-use decisions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ellen M. Douglas

    2016-06-01

    New hydrological insights for the region: Results suggest support for greater local and irrigator involvement in water management decisions. Many, if not most, of the irrigators understood the need for, or at least the inevitability of, governmental policies and regulations. However, a lack of accountability, predictability, and transparency has added to the uncertainty in farm-based water decision-making. Irrigators supported the concept of environmental sustainability, although they might not always agree with how the concept is implemented. The mental modelling approach facilitated knowledge sharing among stakeholders and can be used to identify common goals. Future research utilizing the mental modelling approach may encourage co-management and knowledge partnerships between irrigators, water managers and government officials.

  14. Optimizing Negotiation Conflict in the Cloud Service Negotiation Framework Using Probabilistic Decision Making Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rajavel, Rajkumar; Thangarathinam, Mala

    2015-01-01

    Optimization of negotiation conflict in the cloud service negotiation framework is identified as one of the major challenging issues. This negotiation conflict occurs during the bilateral negotiation process between the participants due to the misperception, aggressive behavior, and uncertain preferences and goals about their opponents. Existing research work focuses on the prerequest context of negotiation conflict optimization by grouping similar negotiation pairs using distance, binary, context-dependent, and fuzzy similarity approaches. For some extent, these approaches can maximize the success rate and minimize the communication overhead among the participants. To further optimize the success rate and communication overhead, the proposed research work introduces a novel probabilistic decision making model for optimizing the negotiation conflict in the long-term negotiation context. This decision model formulates the problem of managing different types of negotiation conflict that occurs during negotiation process as a multistage Markov decision problem. At each stage of negotiation process, the proposed decision model generates the heuristic decision based on the past negotiation state information without causing any break-off among the participants. In addition, this heuristic decision using the stochastic decision tree scenario can maximize the revenue among the participants available in the cloud service negotiation framework.

  15. A Hybrid Multiattribute Decision Making Model for Evaluating Students’ Satisfaction towards Hostels

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    Anath Rau Krishnan

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a new hybrid multiattribute decision making (MADM model which deals with the interactions that usually exist between hostel attributes in the process of measuring the students’ satisfaction towards a set of hostels and identifying the optimal strategies for enhancing their satisfaction. The model uses systematic random stratified sampling approach for data collection purpose as students dwelling in hostels are “naturally” clustered by block and gender, factor analysis for extracting large set of hostel attributes into fewer independent factors, λ-measure for characterizing the interactions shared by the attributes within each factor, Choquet integral for aggregating the interactive performance scores within each factor, Mikhailov’s fuzzy analytical hierarchy process (MFAHP for determining the weights of independent factors, and simple weighted average (SWA operator to measure the overall satisfaction score of each hostel. A real evaluation involving fourteen Universiti Utara Malaysia (UUM hostels was carried out in order to demonstrate the model’s feasibility. The same evaluation was performed using an additive aggregation model in order to illustrate the effects of ignoring the interactions shared by attributes in hostel satisfaction analysis.

  16. Multiscale modelling and analysis of collective decision making in swarm robotics.

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    Matthias Vigelius

    Full Text Available We present a unified approach to describing certain types of collective decision making in swarm robotics that bridges from a microscopic individual-based description to aggregate properties. Our approach encompasses robot swarm experiments, microscopic and probabilistic macroscopic-discrete simulations as well as an analytic mathematical model. Following up on previous work, we identify the symmetry parameter, a measure of the progress of the swarm towards a decision, as a fundamental integrated swarm property and formulate its time evolution as a continuous-time Markov process. Contrary to previous work, which justified this approach only empirically and a posteriori, we justify it from first principles and derive hard limits on the parameter regime in which it is applicable.

  17. Multiscale Modelling and Analysis of Collective Decision Making in Swarm Robotics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vigelius, Matthias; Meyer, Bernd; Pascoe, Geoffrey

    2014-01-01

    We present a unified approach to describing certain types of collective decision making in swarm robotics that bridges from a microscopic individual-based description to aggregate properties. Our approach encompasses robot swarm experiments, microscopic and probabilistic macroscopic-discrete simulations as well as an analytic mathematical model. Following up on previous work, we identify the symmetry parameter, a measure of the progress of the swarm towards a decision, as a fundamental integrated swarm property and formulate its time evolution as a continuous-time Markov process. Contrary to previous work, which justified this approach only empirically and a posteriori, we justify it from first principles and derive hard limits on the parameter regime in which it is applicable. PMID:25369026

  18. Study on optimized decision-making model of offshore wind power projects investment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Tian; Yang, Shangdong; Gao, Guowei; Ma, Li

    2018-02-01

    China’s offshore wind energy is of great potential and plays an important role in promoting China’s energy structure adjustment. However, the current development of offshore wind power in China is inadequate, and is much less developed than that of onshore wind power. On the basis of considering all kinds of risks faced by offshore wind power development, an optimized model of offshore wind power investment decision is established in this paper by proposing the risk-benefit assessment method. To prove the practicability of this method in improving the selection of wind power projects, python programming is used to simulate the investment analysis of a large number of projects. Therefore, the paper is dedicated to provide decision-making support for the sound development of offshore wind power industry.

  19. Multiscale modelling and analysis of collective decision making in swarm robotics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vigelius, Matthias; Meyer, Bernd; Pascoe, Geoffrey

    2014-01-01

    We present a unified approach to describing certain types of collective decision making in swarm robotics that bridges from a microscopic individual-based description to aggregate properties. Our approach encompasses robot swarm experiments, microscopic and probabilistic macroscopic-discrete simulations as well as an analytic mathematical model. Following up on previous work, we identify the symmetry parameter, a measure of the progress of the swarm towards a decision, as a fundamental integrated swarm property and formulate its time evolution as a continuous-time Markov process. Contrary to previous work, which justified this approach only empirically and a posteriori, we justify it from first principles and derive hard limits on the parameter regime in which it is applicable.

  20. Using an ethical decision-making model to determine consequences for student plagiarism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiehl, Ermalynn M

    2006-06-01

    The incidence of plagiarism, intentional or unintentional, in the professional nursing arena has increased in recent years, as has the occurrence of plagiarism among nursing students. Strategies for cheating have become very sophisticated with the use of aids such as personal digital assistants, camera phones, and instant messaging. Cheating on written papers has also increased. The Internet provides students with ready-made research and academic papers, and access to Web sites on a plethora of topics. In this article, I describe my experience with plagiarism of ethics papers during students' final semester before graduation. How I discovered the plagiarized work and used the A-B-C-D-E ethical decision-making model in determining the student consequences for the event are presented.