WorldWideScience

Sample records for models initial models

  1. Progress in Initiator Modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hrousis, C A; Christensen, J S

    2009-05-04

    There is great interest in applying magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulation techniques to the designs of electrical high explosive (HE) initiators, for the purpose of better understanding a design's sensitivities, optimizing its performance, and/or predicting its useful lifetime. Two MHD-capable LLNL codes, CALE and ALE3D, are being used to simulate the process of ohmic heating, vaporization, and plasma formation in the bridge of an initiator, be it an exploding bridgewire (EBW), exploding bridgefoil (EBF) or slapper type initiator. The initiation of the HE is simulated using Tarver Ignition & Growth reactive flow models. 1-D, 2-D and 3-D models have been constructed and studied. The models provide some intuitive explanation of the initiation process and are useful for evaluating the potential impact of identified aging mechanisms (such as the growth of intermetallic compounds or powder sintering). The end product of this work is a simulation capability for evaluating margin in proposed, modified or aged initiation system designs.

  2. Initialization and Optimation of Deformable Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Rune Fisker; Carstensen, Jens Michael; Madsen, Kaj

    1999-01-01

    The deformable model literature has in general been very focused on the formulation and development of new models or the solution of a specific application. Teh final and crucial steps of initialization and optimazation of the deformable model, needed for making inference, have received very little...

  3. Modeling and assessment of electricity market initiatives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mokrian, Pedram

    This body of work is dedicated to the modeling and assessment of initiatives within electricity markets using the underlying hourly market dynamics. The dissertation presents two separate frameworks that take a bottom-up approach for assessing benefits associated with various demand-side initiatives and other emerging interventions in power markets. Models in support of each framework are presented, and numerical results are used to highlight some impacts based on hourly dynamics. The first framework uses stochastic optimization models to explore the economic feasibility of grid-scale energy storage from the perspective of a price taking, profit maximizing firm facing uncertain market dynamics. This model is then extended to incorporate intermittent wind generation, demonstrating how storage can be used as a potential substitute for transmission capacity. The second framework uses a new dynamic market equilibrium simulation model to address broader economic and environmental impacts of various demand-side initiatives including: energy efficiency, distributed generation, and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles. The general model is calibrated for the California electricity market. The model is used to estimate impacts of the various interventions, taking into account varying market adoption levels and natural gas prices.

  4. Modelling population processes with random initial conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pollett, P K; Dooley, A H; Ross, J V

    2010-02-01

    Population dynamics are almost inevitably associated with two predominant sources of variation: the first, demographic variability, a consequence of chance in progenitive and deleterious events; the second, initial state uncertainty, a consequence of partial observability and reporting delays and errors. Here we outline a general method for incorporating random initial conditions in population models where a deterministic model is sufficient to describe the dynamics of the population. Additionally, we show that for a large class of stochastic models the overall variation is the sum of variation due to random initial conditions and variation due to random dynamics, and thus we are able to quantify the variation not accounted for when random dynamics are ignored. Our results are illustrated with reference to both simulated and real data.

  5. Mapping Initial Hydrostatic Models in Godunov Codes

    CERN Document Server

    Zingale, M A; Zu Hone, J; Calder, A C; Fryxell, B; Plewa, T; Truran, J W; Caceres, A; Olson, K; Ricker, P M; Riley, K; Rosner, R; Siegel, A; Timmes, F X; Vladimirova, N

    2002-01-01

    We look in detail at the process of mapping an astrophysical initial model from a stellar evolution code onto the computational grid of an explicit, Godunov type code while maintaining hydrostatic equilibrium. This mapping process is common in astrophysical simulations, when it is necessary to follow short-timescale dynamics after a period of long timescale buildup. We look at the effects of spatial resolution, boundary conditions, the treatment of the gravitational source terms in the hydrodynamics solver, and the initialization process itself. We conclude with a summary detailing the mapping process that yields the lowest ambient velocities in the mapped model.

  6. Initial conditions in the neural field model

    CERN Document Server

    Valdes-Hernandez, Pedro A

    2016-01-01

    In spite of the large amount of existing neural models in the literature, there is a lack of a systematic review of the possible effect of choosing different initial conditions on the dynamic evolution of neural systems. In this short review we intend to give insights into this topic by discussing some published examples. First, we briefly introduce the different ingredients of a neural dynamical model. Secondly, we introduce some concepts used to describe the dynamic behavior of neural models, namely phase space and its portraits, time series, spectra, multistability and bifurcations. We end with an analysis of the irreversibility of processes and its implications on the functioning of normal and pathological brains.

  7. Biology Students’ Initial Mental Model about Microorganism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamdiyati, Y.; Sudargo, F.; Redjeki, S.; Fitriani, A.

    2017-02-01

    The purpose of this study was to identify biology students’ initial mental model about microorganism. This research used descriptive method with 32 sixth semester biology students at Biology Education Departement-Universitas Pendidikan Indonesia as its respondents. Data was taken at the beginning of the 6th semester before respondents endure microbiology course. Instrument used to assess mental model was drawing-writing test in which it contains concepts such as structure of bacteria, archaea, virus, and fungi. Students were asked to describe their imagination about the structure of microorganisms and subsequently asked to explain the structure of microorganisms in writing through open-ended questions. Students’ response was then compared to scientists or experts’ mental models as the targeted mental model. Student mental models were categorized into five levels (levels 1-5), namely “there is no drawing/writing,” “wrong or irrelevant drawing/writing of question,” “partially correct drawing/writing,” “the drawing/writing that has some deficiencies,” and “completely correct and complete drawing/writing.” Results showed that the level of mental models through drawing or writing about the four concepts were varied. The highest level of mental models through drawing (D5) was found in the concept of bacteria, while the highest level of mental models through writing (W3) was found in the concept of bacteria, virus, and fungi. Mental model levels most commonly found in each concept through drawing-writing tests (D/W) were bacteria (D2/W2), Archaea (D1/W1 and D2/W2), virus (D3/W3), and fungi (D2/W1). From these results it is advisable to improve lectures and assessment strategy to enhance or complement students’ mental models about microorganisms.

  8. The AGU Data Management Maturity Model Initiative

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bates, J. J.

    2015-12-01

    In September 2014, the AGU Board of Directors approved two initiatives to help the Earth and space sciences community address the growing challenges accompanying the increasing size and complexity of data. These initiatives are: 1) Data Science Credentialing: development of a continuing education and professional certification program to help scientists in their careers and to meet growing responsibilities and requirements around data science; and 2) Data Management Maturity (DMM) Model: development and implementation of a data management maturity model to assess process maturity against best practices, and to identify opportunities in organizational data management processes. Each of these has been organized within AGU as an Editorial Board and both Boards have held kick off meetings. The DMM model Editorial Board will recommend strategies for adapting and deploying a DMM model to the Earth and space sciences create guidance documents to assist in its implementation, and provide input on a pilot appraisal process. This presentation will provide an overview of progress to date in the DMM model Editorial Board and plans for work to be done over the upcoming year.

  9. Phoenix Metropolitan Model Deployment Initiative Evaluation Report

    OpenAIRE

    Zimmerman, C; Marks, J.; Jenq, J.; Cluett, Chris; DeBlasio, Allan; Lappin, Jane; Rakha, Hesham A.; Wunderlich, K

    2000-01-01

    This report presents the evaluation results of the Phoenix, Arizona Metropolitan Model Deployment Initiative (MMDI). The MMDI was a three-year program of the Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) Joint Program Office of the U.S. Department of Transportation. It focused on aggressive deployment of ITS at four sites across the United States, including the metropolitan areas of San Antonio, Seattle, NY/NJ/Connecticut as well as Phoenix. The focus of the deployments was on integration of exist...

  10. Initial conditions from the shadowed Glauber model

    CERN Document Server

    Chatterjee, Sandeep; Ghosh, Snigdha; Hasanujjaman, Md; Alam, Jane; Sarkar, Sourav

    2015-01-01

    The two component Monte-Carlo Glauber model predicts a knee-like structure in the centrality dependence of elliptic flow $v_2$ in Uranium+Uranium collisions at $\\sqrt{s_{\\rm NN}}=193$ GeV. It also produces a strong anti-correlation between $v_2$ and $dN_{ch}/dy$ in the case of top ZDC events. However, none of these features have been observed in data. We address these discrepancies by including the effect of nucleon shadowing to the two component Monte-Carlo Glauber model. Apart from addressing successfully the above issues, we find that the nucleon shadow suppresses the event by event fluctuation of various quantities, e.g. $\\varepsilon_2$ which is in accordance with expectation from the dynamical models of initial condition based on gluon saturation physics.

  11. Safeguards First Principle Initiative (SFPI) Cost Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mary Alice Price

    2010-07-11

    The Nevada Test Site (NTS) began operating Material Control and Accountability (MC&A) under the Safeguards First Principle Initiative (SFPI), a risk-based and cost-effective program, in December 2006. The NTS SFPI Comprehensive Assessment of Safeguards Systems (COMPASS) Model is made up of specific elements (MC&A plan, graded safeguards, accounting systems, measurements, containment, surveillance, physical inventories, shipper/receiver differences, assessments/performance tests) and various sub-elements, which are each assigned effectiveness and contribution factors that when weighted and rated reflect the health of the MC&A program. The MC&A Cost Model, using an Excel workbook, calculates budget and/or actual costs using these same elements/sub-elements resulting in total costs and effectiveness costs per element/sub-element. These calculations allow management to identify how costs are distributed for each element/sub-element. The Cost Model, as part of the SFPI program review process, enables management to determine if spending is appropriate for each element/sub-element.

  12. Ørsted Initial Field Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Nils; Holme, R.; Hulot, G.

    2000-01-01

    Magnetic measurements taken by the Orsted satellite during geomagnetic quiet conditions around January 1, 2000 have been used to derive a spherical harmonic model of the Earth's magnetic field for epoch 2000.0. The maximum degree and order of the model is 19 for internal, and 2 for external, sour...

  13. Mathematical Modelling of Tyndall Star Initiation

    CERN Document Server

    Harvey, Peter; Katz, Richard F; Lacey, Andrew A

    2015-01-01

    The superheating that usually occurs when a solid is melted by volumetric heating can produce irregular solid/liquid interfaces. Such interfaces can be visualised in ice, where they are sometimes known as Tyndall stars. This paper describes some of the experimental observations of Tyndall stars and a mathematical model for the early stages of their evolution. The modelling is complicated by the strong crystalline anisotropy, which results in an anisotropic kinetic undercooling at the interface, and it leads to an interesting class of codimension-2 free boundary problems.

  14. xRage: HE initiation models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Menikoff, Ralph [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Scovel, Christina A. [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2012-06-01

    The xRage code contains three HE ignition models: Forest Fire, Cerro Grande and Ignition and Growth. After describing these models we present results of verification and validation (V and V) tests. These include simulations to determine the Pop-plot for each model and comparision with embedded velocity gauge data for shock-to-detonation transition (SDT) experiments. The data for the SDT experiments on PBX 9502 is taken from the recently developed high explosive database (HED). The HED data files contains additional meta-data with the key experimental parameters. This enables the use of scripts to automate testing: generating xRage input file, running simulation and generating comparison plots with experimental and simulated data. The simulations show that the models are robust. But there is a mesh dependence with the time for transition-to-detonation varying by several tenths of microseconds. After the transition to a detonation wave, the detonation speed and pressure may vary by a few per cent.

  15. The initiative on Model Organism Proteomes (iMOP) Session

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schrimpf, Sabine P; Mering, Christian von; Bendixen, Emøke

    2012-01-01

    iMOP – the Initiative on Model Organism Proteomes – was accepted as a new HUPO initiative at the Ninth HUPO meeting in Sydney in 2010. A goal of iMOP is to integrate research groups working on a great diversity of species into a model organism community. At the Tenth HUPO meeting in Geneva...

  16. Sensitivity of a Simulated Derecho Event to Model Initial Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Wei

    2014-05-01

    Since 2003, the MMM division at NCAR has been experimenting cloud-permitting scale weather forecasting using Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Over the years, we've tested different model physics, and tried different initial and boundary conditions. Not surprisingly, we found that the model's forecasts are more sensitive to the initial conditions than model physics. In 2012 real-time experiment, WRF-DART (Data Assimilation Research Testbed) at 15 km was employed to produce initial conditions for twice-a-day forecast at 3 km. On June 29, this forecast system captured one of the most destructive derecho event on record. In this presentation, we will examine forecast sensitivity to different model initial conditions, and try to understand the important features that may contribute to the success of the forecast.

  17. The Global Modeling Initiative Assessment Model: Model Description, Integration and Testing of the Transport Shell

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rotman, D.A.; Tannahill, J.R.; Kinnison, D.E.; Connell, P.S.; Bergmann, D.; Proctor, D.; Rodriquez, J.M.; Lin, S.J.; Rood, R.B.; Prather, M.J.; Rasch, P.J.; Considine, D.B.; Ramaroson, R.; Kawa, S.R.

    2000-04-25

    We describe the three dimensional global stratospheric chemistry model developed under the NASA Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) to assess the possible environmental consequences from the emissions of a fleet of proposed high speed civil transport aircraft. This model was developed through a unique collaboration of the members of the GMI team. Team members provided computational modules representing various physical and chemical processes, and analysis of simulation results through extensive comparison to observation. The team members' modules were integrated within a computational framework that allowed transportability and simulations on massively parallel computers. A unique aspect of this model framework is the ability to interchange and intercompare different submodules to assess the sensitivity of numerical algorithms and model assumptions to simulation results. In this paper, we discuss the important attributes of the GMI effort, describe the GMI model computational framework and the numerical modules representing physical and chemical processes. As an application of the concept, we illustrate an analysis of the impact of advection algorithms on the dispersion of a NO{sub y}-like source in the stratosphere which mimics that of a fleet of commercial supersonic transports (High-Speed Civil Transport (HSCT)) flying between 17 and 20 kilometers.

  18. Modeling the outflow of liquid with initial supercritical parameters using the relaxation model for condensation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lezhnin Sergey

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The two-temperature model of the outflow from a vessel with initial supercritical parameters of medium has been realized. The model uses thermodynamic non-equilibrium relaxation approach to describe phase transitions. Based on a new asymptotic model for computing the relaxation time, the outflow of water with supercritical initial pressure and super- and subcritical temperatures has been calculated.

  19. Initialization and Setup of the Coastal Model Test Bed: STWAVE

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-01-01

    coastal numerical models . Pertinent data types, including waves, water levels, nearshore currents, bathymetry, and meteorological measurements, are...correlation coefficients, and other statistics can be calculated between the observed data and the model output for any duration of time using the...ERDC/CHL CHETN-I-93 January 2017 Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. Initialization and Setup of the Coastal Model Test Bed

  20. Human Cancer Models Initiative | Office of Cancer Genomics

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Human Cancer Models Initiative (HCMI) is an international consortium that is generating novel human tumor-derived culture models, which are annotated with genomic and clinical data. In an effort to advance cancer research and more fully understand how in vitro findings are related to clinical biology, HCMI-developed models and related data will be available as a community resource for cancer research.

  1. South Carolina's Model for Initiating Hispanic 4-H Clubs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lippert, Robert; Rembert, Kellye

    2012-01-01

    Over the past 5 years, through the initiative of several county Extension agents, South Carolina 4-H has established a successful model for bringing Hispanic youth into our program. We have found the most effective method is to initiate contact and establish partnerships with the principals and ESOL instructors in the local schools. Through this…

  2. Dynamic crack initiation toughness : experiments and peridynamic modeling.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Foster, John T.

    2009-10-01

    This is a dissertation on research conducted studying the dynamic crack initiation toughness of a 4340 steel. Researchers have been conducting experimental testing of dynamic crack initiation toughness, K{sub Ic}, for many years, using many experimental techniques with vastly different trends in the results when reporting K{sub Ic} as a function of loading rate. The dissertation describes a novel experimental technique for measuring K{sub Ic} in metals using the Kolsky bar. The method borrows from improvements made in recent years in traditional Kolsky bar testing by using pulse shaping techniques to ensure a constant loading rate applied to the sample before crack initiation. Dynamic crack initiation measurements were reported on a 4340 steel at two different loading rates. The steel was shown to exhibit a rate dependence, with the recorded values of K{sub Ic} being much higher at the higher loading rate. Using the knowledge of this rate dependence as a motivation in attempting to model the fracture events, a viscoplastic constitutive model was implemented into a peridynamic computational mechanics code. Peridynamics is a newly developed theory in solid mechanics that replaces the classical partial differential equations of motion with integral-differential equations which do not require the existence of spatial derivatives in the displacement field. This allows for the straightforward modeling of unguided crack initiation and growth. To date, peridynamic implementations have used severely restricted constitutive models. This research represents the first implementation of a complex material model and its validation. After showing results comparing deformations to experimental Taylor anvil impact for the viscoplastic material model, a novel failure criterion is introduced to model the dynamic crack initiation toughness experiments. The failure model is based on an energy criterion and uses the K{sub Ic} values recorded experimentally as an input. The failure model

  3. Life cycle Prognostic Model Development and Initial Application Results

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jeffries, Brien; Hines, Wesley; Nam, Alan; Sharp, Michael; Upadhyaya, Belle [The University of Tennessee, Knoxville (United States)

    2014-08-15

    In order to obtain more accurate Remaining Useful Life (RUL) estimates based on empirical modeling, a Lifecycle Prognostics algorithm was developed that integrates various prognostic models. These models can be categorized into three types based on the type of data they process. The application of multiple models takes advantage of the most useful information available as the system or component operates through its lifecycle. The Lifecycle Prognostics is applied to an impeller test bed, and the initial results serve as a proof of concept.

  4. Modeling initiation trains based on HMX and TATB

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drake, R. C.; Maisey, M.

    2017-01-01

    There will always be a requirement to reduce the size of initiation trains. However, as the size is reduced the performance characteristics can be compromised. A detailed science-based understanding of the processes (ignition and growth to detonation) which determine the performance characteristics is required to enable compact and robust initiation trains to be designed. To assess the use of numerical models in the design of initiation trains a modeling study has been undertaken, with the aim of understanding the initiation of TATB and HMX charges by a confined, surface mounted detonator. The effect of detonator diameter and detonator confinement on the formation of dead zones in the acceptor explosives has been studied. The size of dead zones can be reduced by increasing the diameter of the detonator and by increasing the impedance of the confinement. The implications for the design of initiation trains are discussed.

  5. Integrated hydrologic modeling: Effects of spatial scale, discretization and initialization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seck, A.; Welty, C.; Maxwell, R. M.

    2011-12-01

    Groundwater discharge contributes significantly to the annual flows of Chesapeake Bay tributaries and is presumed to contribute to the observed lag time between the implementation of management actions and the environmental response in the Chesapeake Bay. To investigate groundwater fluxes and flow paths and interaction with surface flow, we have developed a fully distributed integrated hydrologic model of the Chesapeake Bay Watershed using ParFlow. Here we present a comparison of model spatial resolution and initialization methods. We have studied the effect of horizontal discretization on overland flow processes at a range of scales. Three nested model domains have been considered: the Monocacy watershed (5600 sq. km), the Potomac watershed (92000 sq. km) and the Chesapeake Bay watershed (400,000 sq. km). Models with homogeneous subsurface and topographically-derived slopes were evaluated at 500-m, 1000-m, 2000-m, and 4000-m grid resolutions. Land surface slopes were derived from resampled DEMs and corrected using stream networks. Simulation results show that the overland flow processes are reasonably well represented with a resolution up to 2000 m. We observe that the effects of horizontal resolution dissipate with larger scale models. Using a homogeneous model that includes subsurface and surface terrain characteristics, we have evaluated various initialization methods for the integrated Monocacy watershed model. This model used several options for water table depths and two rainfall forcing methods including (1) a synthetic rainfall-recession cycle corresponding to the region's average annual rainfall rate, and (2) an initial shut-off of rainfall forcing followed by a rainfall-recession cycling. Results show the dominance of groundwater generated runoff during a first phase of the simulation followed by a convergence towards more balanced runoff generation mechanisms. We observe that the influence of groundwater runoff increases in dissected relief areas

  6. Stochastic Models for Chloride-Initiated Corrosion in Reinforced Concrete

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Engelund, Svend; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    Corrosion of the reinforcement in concrete structures can lead to a substantial decrease of the load-bearing capacity. One mode of corrosion initiation is when the chloride content around the reinforcement exceeds a threshold value. In the present paper a statistical model is developed by which t...... the chloride content in a 1reinforced concrete structure can be predicted. The model parameters are estimated on the basis of measurements. The distribution of the time to initiation of corrosion is estimated by FORMISORM-analysis.......Corrosion of the reinforcement in concrete structures can lead to a substantial decrease of the load-bearing capacity. One mode of corrosion initiation is when the chloride content around the reinforcement exceeds a threshold value. In the present paper a statistical model is developed by which...

  7. New initial condition of the new agegraphic dark energy model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Li Yun-He; Zhang Jing-Fei; Zhang Xin

    2013-01-01

    The initial condition Ωde (zini) =n2(1 + Zini)-2/4 at Zini =2000,widely used to solve the differential equation of the density of the new agegraphic dark energy (NADE) Ωde,makes the NADE model a single-parameter dark-energy cosmological model.However,we find that this initial condition is only applicable in a fiat universe with only dark energy and pressureless matter.In fact,in order to obtain more information from current observational data,such as the cosmic microwave background (CMB) and the baryon acoustic oscillations (BAO),we need to consider the contribution of radiation.For this situation,the initial condition mentioned above becomes invalid.To overcome this shortcoming,we investigate the evolutions of dark energy in matter-dominated and radiation-dominated epochs,and obtain a new initial condition Ωde(Zini) =n2(1 + zini)-2(1+ √F(Zini))2/4 at zini =2000,where F(z) ≡ Ωr0(1+z)/[Ωm0 + Ωr0(1 +z)] with Ωr0 and Ωm0 being the current density parameters of radiation and pressureless matter,respectively.This revised initial condition is applicable for the differential equation of Ωde obtained in the standard Friedmann-Robertson-Walker (FRW) universe with dark energy,pressureless matter,radiation,and even spatial curvature,and can still keep the NADE model as a single-parameter model.With the revised initial condition and the observational data of type Ia supernova (SNIa),CMB,and BAO,we finally constrain the NADE model.The results show that the single free parameter n of the NADE model can be constrained tightly.

  8. Stochastic Models for Chloride-Initiated Corrosion in Reinforced Concrete

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Engelund, S.; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    1996-01-01

    Corrosion of the reinforcement in concrete structures can lead to a substantial decrease of the load-bearing capacity. One mode of corrosion initiation is when the chloride content around the reinforcement exceeds a threshold value. In the present paper a statistical model is developed by which...... the chloride content in a reinforced concrete structure can be predicted. The model parameters are estimated on the basis of measurements. The distribution of the time to initiation of corrosion is estimated by FORM/SORM-analysis....

  9. Modelling the initial stage of porous alumina growth during anodization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aryslanova, E. M.; Alfimov, A. V.; Chivilikhin, S. A.

    2013-05-01

    Artificially on the surface of aluminum there may be build a thick layer of Al2O3, which has a porous structure. In this paper we present a model of growth of porous alumina in the initial stage of anodizing, identifying dependencies anodizing parameters on the rate of growth of the film and the distance between the pores and as a result of the created model equations were found for changes in the disturbance of alumina for the initial stage of anodizing aluminum oxide porous border aluminum-alumina and alumina-electrolyte, with the influence of surface diffusion of aluminum oxide.

  10. A Newsvendor Model with Initial Inventory and Two Salvage Opportunities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali Cheaitou

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we develop an extension of the newsvendor model with initial inventory. In addition to the usual quantity ordered at the beginning of the horizon and the usual quantity salvaged at the end of the horizon, we introduce a new decision variable: a salvage opportunity at the beginning of the horizon, which might be used in the case of high initial inventory level. We develop the expression of the optimal policy for this extended model, for a general demand distribution. The structure of this optimal policy is particular and is characterized by two threshold levels. Some managerial insights are given via numerical examples.

  11. Learning reliable manipulation strategies without initial physical models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christiansen, Alan D.; Mason, Matthew T.; Mitchell, Tom M.

    1990-01-01

    A description is given of a robot, possessing limited sensory and effectory capabilities but no initial model of the effects of its actions on the world, that acquires such a model through exploration, practice, and observation. By acquiring an increasingly correct model of its actions, it generates increasingly successful plans to achieve its goals. In an apparently nondeterministic world, achieving reliability requires the identification of reliable actions and a preference for using such actions. Furthermore, by selecting its training actions carefully, the robot can significantly improve its learning rate.

  12. Hindcasting to measure ice sheet model sensitivity to initial states

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Aschwanden

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Validation is a critical component of model development, yet notoriously challenging in ice sheet modeling. Here we evaluate how an ice sheet system model responds to a given forcing. We show that hindcasting, i.e. forcing a model with known or closely estimated inputs for past events to see how well the output matches observations, is a viable method of assessing model performance. By simulating the recent past of Greenland, and comparing to observations of ice thickness, ice discharge, surface speeds, mass loss and surface elevation changes for validation, we find that the short term model response is strongly influenced by the initial state. We show that the thermal and dynamical states (i.e. the distribution of internal energy and momentum can be misrepresented despite a good agreement with some observations, stressing the importance of using multiple observations. In particular we identify rates of change of spatially dense observations as preferred validation metrics. Hindcasting enables a qualitative assessment of model performance relative to observed rates of change. It thereby reduces the number of admissible initial states more rigorously than validation efforts that do not take advantage of observed rates of change.

  13. Hindcasting to measure ice sheet model sensitivity to initial states

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Aschwanden

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Recent observations of the Greenland ice sheet indicate rapid mass loss at an accelerating rate with an increasing contribution to global mean sea level. Ice sheet models are used for projections of such future contributions of ice sheets to sea level, but the quality of projections is difficult to measure directly. Realistic initial states are crucial for accurate simulations. To test initial states we use hindcasting, i.e. forcing a model with known or closely-estimated inputs for past events to see how well the output matches observations. By simulating the recent past of Greenland, and comparing to observations of ice thickness, ice discharge, surface speeds, mass loss and surface elevation changes for validation, we find that the short term model response is strongly influenced by the initial state. We show that the dynamical state can be mis-represented despite a good agreement with some observations, stressing the importance of using multiple observations. Some initial states generate good agreement with measured mass time series in the hindcast period, and good agreement with present-day kinematic fields. We suggest hindcasting as a methodology for careful validation of initial states that can be done before making projections on decadal to century time-scales.

  14. Impacts of model initialization on an integrated surface water - groundwater model

    KAUST Repository

    Ajami, Hoori

    2015-04-01

    Integrated hydrologic models characterize catchment responses by coupling the subsurface flow with land surface processes. One of the major areas of uncertainty in such models is the specification of the initial condition and its influence on subsequent simulations. A key challenge in model initialization is that it requires spatially distributed information on model states, groundwater levels and soil moisture, even when such data are not routinely available. Here, the impact of uncertainty in initial condition was explored across a 208 km2 catchment in Denmark using the ParFlow.CLM model. The initialization impact was assessed under two meteorological conditions (wet vs dry) using five depth to water table and soil moisture distributions obtained from various equilibrium states (thermal, root zone, discharge, saturated and unsaturated zone equilibrium) during the model spin-up. Each of these equilibrium states correspond to varying computation times to achieve stability in a particular aspect of the system state. Results identified particular sensitivity in modelled recharge and stream flow to the different initializations, but reduced sensitivity in modelled energy fluxes. Analysis also suggests that to simulate a year that is wetter than the spin-up period, an initialization based on discharge equilibrium is adequate to capture the direction and magnitude of surface water–groundwater exchanges. For a drier or hydrologically similar year to the spin-up period, an initialization based on groundwater equilibrium is required. Variability of monthly subsurface storage changes and discharge bias at the scale of a hydrological event show that the initialization impacts do not diminish as the simulations progress, highlighting the importance of robust and accurate initialization in capturing surface water–groundwater dynamics.

  15. The Swarm Initial Field Model for the 2014 geomagnetic field

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Nils; Hulot, Gauthier; Lesur, Vincent;

    2015-01-01

    Data from the first year of ESA's Swarm constellation mission are used to derive the Swarm Initial Field Model (SIFM), a new model of the Earth's magnetic field and its time variation. In addition to the conventional magnetic field observations provided by each of the three Swarm satellites......, explicit advantage is taken of the constellation aspect by including East-West magnetic intensity gradient information from the lower satellite pair. Along-track differences in magnetic intensity provide further information concerning the North-South gradient. The SIFM static field shows excellent...... agreement (up to at least degree 60) with recent field models derived from CHAMP data, providing an initial validation of the quality of the Swarm magnetic measurements. Use of gradient data improves the determination of both the static field and its secular variation, with the mean misfit for East...

  16. On specification of initial conditions in turbulence models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rollin, Bertrand [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Andrews, Malcolm J [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2010-12-01

    Recent research has shown that initial conditions have a significant influence on the evolution of a flow towards turbulence. This important finding offers a unique opportunity for turbulence control, but also raises the question of how to properly specify initial conditions in turbulence models. We study this problem in the context of the Rayleigh-Taylor instability. The Rayleigh-Taylor instability is an interfacial fluid instability that leads to turbulence and turbulent mixing. It occurs when a light fluid is accelerated in to a heavy fluid because of misalignment between density and pressure gradients. The Rayleigh-Taylor instability plays a key role in a wide variety of natural and man-made flows ranging from supernovae to the implosion phase of Inertial Confinement Fusion (ICF). Our approach consists of providing the turbulence models with a predicted profile of its key variables at the appropriate time in accordance to the initial conditions of the problem.

  17. Individual Subjective Initiative Merge Model Based on Cellular Automaton

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yin-Jie Xu

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The merge control models proposed for work zones are classified into two types (Hard Control Merge (HCM model and Soft Control Merge (SCM model according to their own control intensity and are compared with a new model, called Individual Subjective Initiative Merge (ISIM model, which is based on the linear lane-changing probability strategy in the merging area. The attention of this paper is paid to the positive impact of the individual subjective initiative for the whole traffic system. Three models (ISIM, HCM, and SCM are established and compared with each other by two order parameters, that is, system output and average vehicle travel time. Finally, numerical results show that both ISIM and SCM perform better than HCM. Compared with SCM, the output of ISIM is 20 vehicles per hour higher under the symmetric input condition and is more stable under the asymmetric input condition. Meanwhile, the average travel time of ISIM is 2000 time steps less under the oversaturated input condition.

  18. Regimes of chemical reaction waves initiated by nonuniform initial conditions for detailed chemical reaction models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liberman, M A; Kiverin, A D; Ivanov, M F

    2012-05-01

    Regimes of chemical reaction wave propagation initiated by initial temperature nonuniformity in gaseous mixtures, whose chemistry is governed by chain-branching kinetics, are studied using a multispecies transport model and a detailed chemical model. Possible regimes of reaction wave propagation are identified for stoichiometric hydrogen-oxygen and hydrogen-air mixtures in a wide range of initial pressures and temperature levels, depending on the initial non-uniformity steepness. The limits of the regimes of reaction wave propagation depend upon the values of the spontaneous wave speed and the characteristic velocities of the problem. It is shown that one-step kinetics cannot reproduce either quantitative neither qualitative features of the ignition process in real gaseous mixtures because the difference between the induction time and the time when the exothermic reaction begins significantly affects the ignition, evolution, and coupling of the spontaneous reaction wave and the pressure wave, especially at lower temperatures. We show that all the regimes initiated by the temperature gradient occur for much shallower temperature gradients than predicted by a one-step model. The difference is very large for lower initial pressures and for slowly reacting mixtures. In this way the paper provides an answer to questions, important in practice, about the ignition energy, its distribution, and the scale of the initial nonuniformity required for ignition in one or another regime of combustion wave propagation.

  19. 3-D numerical modeling of plume-induced subduction initiation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baes, Marzieh; Gerya, taras; Sobolev, Stephan

    2016-04-01

    Investigation of mechanisms involved in formation of a new subduction zone can help us to better understand plate tectonics. Despite numerous previous studies, it is still unclear how and where an old oceanic plate starts to subduct beneath the other plate. One of the proposed scenarios for nucleation of subduction is plume-induced subduction initiation, which was investigated in detail, using 2-D models, by Ueda et al. (2008). Recently. Gerya et al. (2015), using 3D numerical models, proposed that plume-lithosphere interaction in the Archean led to the subduction initiation and onset of plate tectonic. In this study, we aim to pursue work of Ueda et al. (2008) by incorporation of 3-D thermo-mechanical models to investigate conditions leading to oceanic subduction initiation as a result of thermal-chemical mantle plume-lithosphere interaction in the modern earth. Results of our experiments show four different deformation regimes in response to plume-lithosphere interaction, that are a) self-sustaining subduction initiation where subduction becomes self-sustained, b) freezing subduction initiation where subduction stops at shallow depths, c) slab break-off where subducting circular slab breaks off soon after formation and d) plume underplating where plume does not pass through the lithosphere but spreads beneath it (failed subduction initiation). These different regimes depend on several parameters such as plume's size, composition and temperature, lithospheric brittle/plastic strength, age of the oceanic lithosphere and presence/absence of lithospheric heterogeneities. Results show that subduction initiates and becomes self-sustained when lithosphere is older than 10 Myr and non-dimensional ratio of the plume buoyancy force and lithospheric strength above the plume is higher than 2.

  20. Modeling AIDS survival after initiation of antiretroviral treatment by Weibull models with changepoints

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yiannoutsos Constantin T

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Mortality of HIV-infected patients initiating antiretroviral therapy in the developing world is very high immediately after the start of ART therapy and drops sharply thereafter. It is necessary to use models of survival time that reflect this change. Methods In this endeavor, parametric models with changepoints such as Weibull models can be useful in order to explicitly model the underlying failure process, even in the case where abrupt changes in the mortality rate are present. Estimation of the temporal location of possible mortality changepoints has important implications on the effective management of these patients. We briefly describe these models and apply them to the case of estimating survival among HIV-infected patients who are initiating antiretroviral therapy in a care and treatment programme in sub-Saharan Africa. Results As a first reported data-driven estimate of the existence and location of early mortality changepoints after antiretroviral therapy initiation, we show that there is an early change in risk of death at three months, followed by an intermediate risk period lasting up to 10 months after therapy. Conclusion By explicitly modelling the underlying abrupt changes in mortality risk after initiation of antiretroviral therapy we are able to estimate their number and location in a rigorous, data-driven manner. The existence of a high early risk of death after initiation of antiretroviral therapy and the determination of its duration has direct implications for the optimal management of patients initiating therapy in this setting.

  1. On the Initial Conditions of the Nice Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Batygin, Konstantin; Brown, M. E.

    2009-09-01

    In the recent years, the "Nice” model of solar system formation has attained an unprecedented level of success in reproducing much of the observed orbital architecture of the Kuiper belt, while evolving the planets to their current locations from a more compact configuration (Tsiaganis et al 2005; Levison et al 2007). Within the context of this model, the formation of the classical Kuiper Belt requires a phase during which the ice giants have a high eccentricity. An outstanding question of this model is the initial condition from which the Solar System started out. Recent work (Morbidelli et al 2007) has shown that multi-resonant initial conditions can serve as good candidates, as they naturally prevent vigorous type-II migration. We performed a large number of self-consisted numerical N-body simulations with an eye towards identification of multi-resonant initial conditions which result in an eccentric phase of the ice giants. The results should prove useful in further development of a comprehensive model for solar system formation.

  2. Initial partonic eccentricity fluctuations in a multiphase transport model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, L.; Ma, G. L.; Ma, Y. G.

    2016-10-01

    Initial partonic eccentricities in Au+Au collisions at center-of-mass energy √{sN N}=200 GeV are investigated by using a multiphase transport model with a string-melting scenario. The initial eccentricities in different order of harmonics are studied by using participant and cumulant definitions. Eccentricity in terms of second-, fourth- and sixth-order cumulants as a function of number of participant nucleons are compared systematically with the traditional participant definition. The ratio of the cumulant eccentricities ɛ {4 }/ɛ {2 } and ɛ {6 }/ɛ {4 } are studied in comparison with the ratio of the corresponding flow harmonics. The conversion coefficients (vn/ɛn ) are explored up to fourth-order harmonics based on the cumulant method. Furthermore, studies on transverse momentum (pT) and pseudorapidity (η ) dependencies of eccentricities and their fluctuations are presented. As in ideal hydrodynamics, initial eccentricities are expected to be closely related to the final flow harmonics in relativistic heavy-ion collisions, studies of the fluctuating initial condition in the AMPT model will shed light on the tomography properties of the initial source geometry.

  3. Theoretical model for forming limit diagram predictions without initial inhomogeneity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gologanu, Mihai; Comsa, Dan Sorin; Banabic, Dorel

    2013-05-01

    We report on our attempts to build a theoretical model for determining forming limit diagrams (FLD) based on limit analysis that, contrary to the well-known Marciniak and Kuczynski (M-K) model, does not assume the initial existence of a region with material or geometrical inhomogeneity. We first give a new interpretation based on limit analysis for the onset of necking in the M-K model. Considering the initial thickness defect along a narrow band as postulated by the M-K model, we show that incipient necking is a transition in the plastic mechanism from one of plastic flow in both the sheet and the band to another one where the sheet becomes rigid and all plastic deformation is localized in the band. We then draw on some analogies between the onset of necking in a sheet and the onset of coalescence in a porous bulk body. In fact, the main advance in coalescence modeling has been based on a similar limit analysis with an important new ingredient: the evolution of the spatial distribution of voids, due to the plastic deformation, creating weaker regions with higher porosity surrounded by sound regions with no voids. The onset of coalescence is precisely the transition from a mechanism of plastic deformation in both regions to another one, where the sound regions are rigid. We apply this new ingredient to a necking model based on limit analysis, for the first quadrant of the FLD and a porous sheet. We use Gurson's model with some recent extensions to model the porous material. We follow both the evolution of a homogeneous sheet and the evolution of the distribution of voids. At each moment we test for a potential change of plastic mechanism, by comparing the stresses in the uniform region to those in a virtual band with a larger porosity. The main difference with the coalescence of voids in a bulk solid is that the plastic mechanism for a sheet admits a supplementary degree of freedom, namely the change in the thickness of the virtual band. For strain ratios close to

  4. Initial CGE Model Results Summary Exogenous and Endogenous Variables Tests

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Edwards, Brian Keith [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Boero, Riccardo [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Rivera, Michael Kelly [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2017-08-07

    The following discussion presents initial results of tests of the most recent version of the National Infrastructure Simulation and Analysis Center Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model developed by Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). The intent of this is to test and assess the model’s behavioral properties. The test evaluated whether the predicted impacts are reasonable from a qualitative perspective. This issue is whether the predicted change, be it an increase or decrease in other model variables, is consistent with prior economic intuition and expectations about the predicted change. One of the purposes of this effort is to determine whether model changes are needed in order to improve its behavior qualitatively and quantitatively.

  5. Surrogate modeling for initial rotational stiffness of welded tubular joints

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M.R. Garifullin

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Recently, buildings and structures erected in Russia and abroad have to comply with stringent economic requirements. Buildings should not only be reliable and safe, have a beautiful architectural design, but also meet the criteria of rationality and energy efficiency. In practice, this usually means the need for additional comparative analysis in order to determine the optimal solution to the engineering task. Usually such an analysis is time-consuming and requires huge computational efforts. In this regard, surrogate modeling can be an effective tool for solving such problems. This article provides a brief description of surrogate models and the basic techniques of their construction, describes the construction process of a surrogate model to calculate initial rotational stiffness of welded RHS joints made of high strength steel (HSS.

  6. Dynamics of intraoceanic subduction initiation: 2D thermomechanical modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, X.; Gerya, T.; LI, Z.; Stern, R. J.

    2016-12-01

    Intraoceanic subduction initiation occurs in previous weak zones which could be transform faults or old fracture zones, and concurrents with the change of plate motions. It is an important process to understand the beginning of plate tectonics. However, the dynamic process during (after) subduction initiation remain obscure. The process of suducting slabs move from down to downdip is also not revealed clearly. In order to obtain better understanding of the transitional process of subducting slab motion, we use finite difference and marker-in-cell methods to establish a series of self-sustainable subduction initiation models and explore many visco-plastic parameters to qualify the dynamical process of subduction initiation. The following parameters are systematic tested: (1) the age of the subducting slab; (2) friction coefficient of the mantle material; (3) the mantle potential temperature; (4) the age of the overriding slab. We find out the critical age of the oceanic lithosphere which can produce subduction initiation. And the age of subducting slab plays important roles during subduction initiation. The young subducting slab induces fast trench retreat and then trench begin to advance. For the old subducting slab, it induces relative slower trench retreat and then stop moving. The age of overriding slabs impacts coupling with the subducting slab. The friction coefficient of lithosphere also impacts the backarc spreading and subduction velocity. Stronger subducted plate gives lower subduction velocity and faster trench retreat velocity. The mantle potential temperature changes the critical age of subducted slabs.

  7. On initial condition of the new agegraphic dark energy model

    CERN Document Server

    Li, Yun-He; Zhang, Xin

    2012-01-01

    The initial condition $\\Omega_{\\rm de}(z_{\\rm ini})=n^2(1+z_{\\rm ini})^{-2}/4$ at $z_{\\rm ini}=2000$ widely used to solve the differential equation of $\\Omega_{\\rm de}$, the density of the new agegraphic dark energy (NADE), makes the NADE model be a single-parameter dark-energy cosmological model. However, this initial condition, we find, is only applicable in a flat universe with only dark energy and pressureless matter. In fact, in order to obtain more information from current observational data, such as cosmic microwave background (CMB) and baryon acoustic oscillations (BAO), it often needs us to consider the contribution of radiation. For this situation, the initial condition mentioned above becomes invalid. To overcome this shortage, we deeply investigate the evolution of NADE in the matter-dominated and radiation-dominated epochs, and obtain a new initial condition $\\Omega_{\\rm de}(z_{\\rm ini}) = \\frac{n^2(1+z_{\\rm ini})^{-2}}{4} (1+\\sqrt{F(z_{\\rm ini})})^2$ at $z_{\\rm ini}=2000$. Here $F(z)\\equiv\\frac{...

  8. Initial Conditions and Modeling for Shock Driven Turbulence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grinstein, Fernando

    2016-11-01

    We focus on the simulation of shock-driven material mixing driven by flow instabilities and initial conditions. Beyond complex multi-scale resolution of shocks and variable density turbulence, me must address the equally difficult problem of predicting flow transition promoted by energy deposited at the material interfacial layer during the shock interface interactions. Transition involves unsteady large-scale coherent-structure dynamics which can be captured by LES, but not by URANS based on equilibrium turbulence assumptions and single-point-closure modeling. Such URANS is frequently preferred on the engineering end of computation capabilities for full-scale configurations - and with reduced 1D/2D dimensionality being also a common aspect. With suitable initialization around each transition - e.g., reshock, URANS can be used to simulate the subsequent near-equilibrium weakly turbulent flow. We demonstrate 3D state-of-the-art URANS performance in one such flow regime. We simulate the CEA planar shock-tube experiments by Poggi et al. (1998) with an ILES strategy. Laboratory turbulence and mixing data are used to benchmark ILES. In turn, the ILES generated data is used to initialize and as reference to assess state-of-the-art 3D URANS. We find that by prescribing physics-based 3D initial conditions and allowing for 3D flow convection with just enough resolution, the additionally computed dissipation in 3D URANS effectively blends with the modeled dissipation to yield significantly improved statistical predictions.

  9. Drift dynamics in a coupled model initialized for decadal forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanchez-Gomez, Emilia; Cassou, Christophe; Ruprich-Robert, Yohan; Fernandez, Elodie; Terray, Laurent

    2016-03-01

    Drifts are always present in models when initialized from observed conditions because of intrinsic model errors; those potentially affect any type of climate predictions based on numerical experiments. Model drifts are usually removed through more or less sophisticated techniques for skill assessment, but they are rarely analysed. In this study, we provide a detailed physical and dynamical description of the drifts in the CNRM-CM5 coupled model using a set of decadal retrospective forecasts produced within CMIP5. The scope of the paper is to give some physical insights and lines of approach to, on one hand, implement more appropriate techniques of initialisation that minimize the drift in forecast mode, and on the other hand, eventually reduce the systematic biases of the models. We first document a novel protocol for ocean initialization adopted by the CNRM-CERFACS group for forecasting purpose in CMIP5. Initial states for starting dates of the predictions are obtained from a preliminary integration of the coupled model where full-field ocean surface temperature and salinity are restored everywhere to observations through flux derivative terms and full-field subsurface fields (below the prognostic ocean mixed layer) are nudged towards NEMOVAR reanalyses. Nudging is applied only outside the 15°S-15°N band allowing for dynamical balance between the depth and tilt of the tropical thermocline and the model intrinsic biased wind. A sensitivity experiment to the latitudinal extension of no-nudging zone (1°S-1°N instead of 15°, hereafter referred to as NOEQ) has been carried out. In this paper, we concentrate our analyses on two specific regions: the tropical Pacific and the North Atlantic basins. In the Pacific, we show that the first year of the forecasts is characterized by a quasi-systematic excitation of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) warm events whatever the starting dates. This, through ocean-to-atmosphere heat transfer materialized by diabatic heating

  10. Modeling the initial conditions of interacting galaxy pairs using Identikit

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mortazavi, S. Alireza; Lotz, Jennifer M.; Barnes, Joshua E.; Snyder, Gregory F.

    2016-01-01

    We develop and test an automated technique to model the dynamics of interacting galaxy pairs. We use Identikit as a tool for modelling and matching the morphology and kinematics of the interacting pairs of equal-mass galaxies. In order to reduce the effect of subjective human judgement, we automate the selection of phase space regions used to match simulations to data, and we explore how selection of these regions affects the random uncertainties of parameters in the best-fitting model. In this work, we use an independent set of GADGET SPH simulations as input data to determine the systematic bias in the measured encounter parameters based on the known initial conditions of these simulations. We test both cold gas and young stellar components in the GADGET simulations to explore the effect of choosing H I versus H α as the line-of-sight velocity tracer. We find that we can group the results into tests with good, fair, and poor convergence based on the distribution of parameters of models close to the best-fitting model. For tests with good and fair convergence, we rule out large fractions of parameter space and recover merger stage, eccentricity, pericentric distance, viewing angle, and initial disc orientations within 3σ of the correct value. All of tests on prograde-prograde systems have either good or fair convergence. The results of tests on edge-on discs are less biased than face-on tests. Retrograde and polar systems do not converge and may require constraints from regions other than the tidal tails and bridges.

  11. Action potential initiation in the hodgkin-huxley model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lucy J Colwell

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available A recent paper of B. Naundorf et al. described an intriguing negative correlation between variability of the onset potential at which an action potential occurs (the onset span and the rapidity of action potential initiation (the onset rapidity. This correlation was demonstrated in numerical simulations of the Hodgkin-Huxley model. Due to this antagonism, it is argued that Hodgkin-Huxley-type models are unable to explain action potential initiation observed in cortical neurons in vivo or in vitro. Here we apply a method from theoretical physics to derive an analytical characterization of this problem. We analytically compute the probability distribution of onset potentials and analytically derive the inverse relationship between onset span and onset rapidity. We find that the relationship between onset span and onset rapidity depends on the level of synaptic background activity. Hence we are able to elucidate the regions of parameter space for which the Hodgkin-Huxley model is able to accurately describe the behavior of this system.

  12. Characterizing climate predictability and model response variability from multiple initial condition and multi-model ensembles

    CERN Document Server

    Kumar, Devashish

    2016-01-01

    Climate models are thought to solve boundary value problems unlike numerical weather prediction, which is an initial value problem. However, climate internal variability (CIV) is thought to be relatively important at near-term (0-30 year) prediction horizons, especially at higher resolutions. The recent availability of significant numbers of multi-model (MME) and multi-initial condition (MICE) ensembles allows for the first time a direct sensitivity analysis of CIV versus model response variability (MRV). Understanding the relative agreement and variability of MME and MICE ensembles for multiple regions, resolutions, and projection horizons is critical for focusing model improvements, diagnostics, and prognosis, as well as impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability studies. Here we find that CIV (MICE agreement) is lower (higher) than MRV (MME agreement) across all spatial resolutions and projection time horizons for both temperature and precipitation. However, CIV dominates MRV over higher latitudes generally an...

  13. Subduction initiation and Obduction: insights from analog models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agard, P.; Zuo, X.; Funiciello, F.; Bellahsen, N.; Faccenna, C.; Savva, D.

    2013-12-01

    Subduction initiation and obduction are two poorly constrained geodynamic processes which are interrelated in a number of natural settings. Subduction initiation can be viewed as the result of a regional-scale change in plate convergence partitioning between the set of existing subduction (and collision or obduction) zones worldwide. Intraoceanic subduction initiation may also ultimately lead to obduction of dense oceanic "ophiolites" atop light continental plates. A classic example is the short-lived Peri-Arabic obduction, which took place along thousands of km almost synchronously (within ~5-10 myr), from Turkey to Oman, while the subduction zone beneath Eurasia became temporarily jammed. We herein present analog models designed to study both processes and more specifically (1) subduction initiation through the partitioning of deformation between two convergent zones (a preexisting and a potential one) and, as a consequence, (2) the possible development of obduction, which has so far never been modeled. These models explore the mechanisms of subduction initiation and obduction and test various triggering hypotheses (i.e., plate acceleration, slab crossing the 660 km discontinuity, ridge subduction; Agard et al., 2007). The experimental setup comprises an upper mantle modelled as a low-viscosity transparent Newtonian glucose syrup filling a rigid Plexiglas tank and high-viscosity silicone plates. Convergence is simulated by pushing on a piston at one end of the model with plate tectonics like velocities (1-10 cm/yr) onto (i) a continental margin, (ii) a weakness zone with variable resistance and dip (W), (iii) an oceanic plate - with or without a spreading ridge, (iv) a subduction zone (S) dipping away from the piston and (v) an upper active continental margin, below which the oceanic plate is being subducted at the start of the experiment (as for the Oman case). Several configurations were tested over thirty-five parametric experiments. Special emphasis was

  14. Boron-10 ABUNCL Prototype Models And Initial Active Testing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kouzes, Richard T.; Ely, James H.; Lintereur, Azaree T.; Siciliano, Edward R.

    2013-04-23

    The Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Safeguards and Security (NA-241) is supporting the project Coincidence Counting With Boron-Based Alternative Neutron Detection Technology at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) for the development of a 3He proportional counter alternative neutron coincidence counter. The goal of this project is to design, build and demonstrate a system based upon 10B-lined proportional tubes in a configuration typical for 3He-based coincidence counter applications. This report provides results from MCNPX model simulations and initial testing of the active mode variation of the Alternative Boron-Based Uranium Neutron Coincidence Collar (ABUNCL) design built by General Electric Reuter-Stokes. Initial experimental testing of the as-delivered passive ABUNCL was previously reported.

  15. Integrated modeling of natural and human systems - problems and initiatives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kessler, H.; Giles, J.; Gunnink, J.; Hughes, A.; Moore, R. V.; Peach, D.

    2009-12-01

    's system, e.g. the flow of groundwater to an abstraction borehole or the availability of water for irrigation. Particular problems arise when model data from two or more disciplines are incompatible in terms of data formats, scientific concepts or language. Other barriers include the cultural segregation within and between science disciplines as well as impediments to data exchange due to ownership and copyright restrictions. OpenMI and GeoSciML are initiatives that are trying to overcome these barriers by building international communities that share vocabularies and data formats. This paper will give examples of the successful merging of geological and hydrological models from the UK and the Netherlands and will introduce the vision of an open Environmental Modelling Platform which aims to link data, knowledge and concepts seamlessly to numerical process models. Last but not least there is an urgent need to create a Subsurface Management System akin to a Geographic Information System in which all results of subsurface modelling can be visualised and analysed in an integrated manner.

  16. Initial Conceptualization and Application of the Alaska Thermokarst Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bolton, W. R.; Lara, M. J.; Genet, H.; Romanovsky, V. E.; McGuire, A. D.

    2015-12-01

    Thermokarst topography forms whenever ice-rich permafrost thaws and the ground subsides due to the volume loss when ground ice transitions to water. The Alaska Thermokarst Model (ATM) is a large-scale, state-and-transition model designed to simulate transitions between landscape units affected by thermokarst disturbance. The ATM uses a frame-based methodology to track transitions and proportion of cohorts within a 1-km2 grid cell. In the arctic tundra environment, the ATM tracks thermokarst-related transitions among wetland tundra, graminoid tundra, shrub tundra, and thermokarst lakes. In the boreal forest environment, the ATM tracks transitions among forested permafrost plateau, thermokarst lakes, collapse scar fens and bogs. The transition from one cohort to another due to thermokarst processes can take place if thaw reaches ice-rich ground layers either due to pulse disturbance (i.e. large precipitation event or fires), or due to gradual active layer deepening that eventually results in penetration of the protective layer. The protective layer buffers the ice-rich soils from the land surface and is critical to determine how susceptible an area is to thermokarst degradation. The rate of terrain transition in our model is determined by a set of rules that are based upon the ice-content of the soil, the drainage efficiency (or the ability of the landscape to store or transport water), the cumulative probability of thermokarst initiation, distance from rivers, lake dynamics (increasing, decreasing, or stable), and other factors. Tundra types are allowed to transition from one type to another (for example, wetland tundra to graminoid tundra) under favorable climatic conditions. In this study, we present our conceptualization and initial simulation results from in the arctic (the Barrow Peninsula) and boreal (the Tanana Flats) regions of Alaska.

  17. Modeling the Initial Conditions of Interacting Galaxy Pairs Using Identikit

    CERN Document Server

    Mortazavi, S Alireza; Barnes, Joshua E

    2014-01-01

    We develop and test an automated technique to model the dynamics of interacting galaxy pairs. We use Identikit (Barnes & Hibbard 2009; Barnes 2011) as a tool for modeling and matching the morphology and kinematics of the interacting pairs of equal-mass galaxies. In order to reduce the effect of subjective human judgement, we automate the selection of phase-space regions used to match simulations to data, and we explore how selection of these regions affects the random uncertainties of parameters in the best-fit model. In this work, we used an independent set of GADGET SPH simulations as input data, to determine the systematic bias in the measured encounter parameters based on the known initial conditions of these simulations. We tested both cold gas and young stellar components in the GADGET simulations to explore the effect of choosing HI vs. H$\\alpha$ as the line of sight velocity tracer. We found that we can group the results into tests with good, fair, and poor convergence based on the distribution of...

  18. Mathematical modeling of detonation initiation via flow cumulation effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Semenov, I.; Utkin, P.; Akhmedyanov, I.

    2016-07-01

    The paper concerns two problems connected with the idea of gaseous detonation initiation via flow cumulation effects and convergence of relatively weak shock waves (SW). The first one is the three-dimensional (3D) numerical investigation of shock-to-detonation transition (SDT) in methane-air mixture in a tube with parabolic contraction followed by the tube section of narrow diameter and conical expansion. The second problem is the numerical study of the start-up of the model small-scale hydrogen electrochemical pulse detonation engine with the use of electrical discharge generating the toroidal SW. The investigation is performed by means of numerical simulation with the use of modern high-performance computing systems.

  19. Initial VHTR accident scenario classification: models and data.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vilim, R. B.; Feldman, E. E.; Pointer, W. D.; Wei, T. Y. C.; Nuclear Engineering Division

    2005-09-30

    Nuclear systems codes are being prepared for use as computational tools for conducting performance/safety analyses of the Very High Temperature Reactor. The thermal-hydraulic codes are RELAP5/ATHENA for one-dimensional systems modeling and FLUENT and/or Star-CD for three-dimensional modeling. We describe a formal qualification framework, the development of Phenomena Identification and Ranking Tables (PIRTs), the initial filtering of the experiment databases, and a preliminary screening of these codes for use in the performance/safety analyses. In the second year of this project we focused on development of PIRTS. Two events that result in maximum fuel and vessel temperatures, the Pressurized Conduction Cooldown (PCC) event and the Depressurized Conduction Cooldown (DCC) event, were selected for PIRT generation. A third event that may result in significant thermal stresses, the Load Change event, is also selected for PIRT generation. Gas reactor design experience and engineering judgment were used to identify the important phenomena in the primary system for these events. Sensitivity calculations performed with the RELAP5 code were used as an aid to rank the phenomena in order of importance with respect to the approach of plant response to safety limits. The overall code qualification methodology was illustrated by focusing on the Reactor Cavity Cooling System (RCCS). The mixed convection mode of heat transfer and pressure drop is identified as an important phenomenon for Reactor Cavity Cooling System (RCCS) operation. Scaling studies showed that the mixed convection mode is likely to occur in the RCCS air duct during normal operation and during conduction cooldown events. The RELAP5/ATHENA code was found to not adequately treat the mixed convection regime. Readying the code will require adding models for the turbulent mixed convection regime while possibly performing new experiments for the laminar mixed convection regime. Candidate correlations for the turbulent

  20. Africa's Great Green Wall Initiative: a model for restoration success

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berrahmouni, Nora; Sacande, Moctar

    2014-05-01

    The Great Green Wall for the Sahara and the Sahel Initiative was launched to address the increasing challenges of land degradation, desertification and drought, climate change, food insecurity and poverty in more than 20 countries. Restoration of agro-sylvo-pastoral landscapes and degraded lands is one of the priority interventions initiated, enabling the springing up of green nests of life. When complete, the Great Green Wall of Africa will reverse the seemingly unstoppable desertification and address the development of its drylands' inhabitant rural communities. Today's planting of modest seedlings will grow into vast mosaics of forest and agroforestry landscapes and grasslands, which will provide essential ecosystem goods and services, restore lost livelihoods and create new wealth. The ambition of reforestation efforts within this initiative - the like of which the world has never seen before - sounds like an impossible dream. However, learning from past mistakes and capitalising on current advancement in science and technology, it is a reality that is taking root. Following a successful restoration model that RBG Kew experts have devised, we are helping to mobilise, train and support communities in four border regions in Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger. In collaboration with FAO, the Millennium Seed Bank Partnership is using its unique expertise to ensure that seeds of environmentally well-adapted and economically useful local species are collected and planted in communal gardens and village agroforestry systems managed by the communities themselves. In our first year, an estimated total of 162,000 seedlings and 61 kg of seeds from 40 useful native species, including grasses for livestock, have been planted to cover 237 ha of farmer-managed land in 19 villages. The keen interest it has created has indicated that these figures will rise five-fold in the second year. These green bricks are the foundations of the living wall that will eventually reach across the

  1. Professional identity acquisition process model in interprofessional education using structural equation modelling: 10-year initiative survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kururi, Nana; Tozato, Fusae; Lee, Bumsuk; Kazama, Hiroko; Katsuyama, Shiori; Takahashi, Maiko; Abe, Yumiko; Matsui, Hiroki; Tokita, Yoshiharu; Saitoh, Takayuki; Kanaizumi, Shiomi; Makino, Takatoshi; Shinozaki, Hiromitsu; Yamaji, Takehiko; Watanabe, Hideomi

    2016-01-01

    The mandatory interprofessional education (IPE) programme at Gunma University, Japan, was initiated in 1999. A questionnaire of 10 items to assess the students' understanding of the IPE training programme has been distributed since then, and the factor analysis of the responses revealed that it was categorised into four subscales, i.e. "professional identity", "structure and function of training facilities", "teamwork and collaboration", and "role and responsibilities", and suggested that these may take into account the development of IPE programme with clinical training. The purpose of this study was to examine the professional identity acquisition process (PIAP) model in IPE using structural equation modelling (SEM). Overall, 1,581 respondents of a possible 1,809 students from the departments of nursing, laboratory sciences, physical therapy, and occupational therapy completed the questionnaire. The SEM technique was utilised to construct a PIAP model on the relationships among four factors. The original PIAP model showed that "professional identity" was predicted by two factors, namely "role and responsibilities" and "teamwork and collaboration". These two factors were predicted by the factor "structure and function of training facilities". The same structure was observed in nursing and physical therapy students' PIAP models, but it was not completely the same in laboratory sciences and occupational therapy students' PIAP models. A parallel but not isolated curriculum on expertise unique to the profession, which may help to understand their professional identity in combination with learning the collaboration, may be necessary.

  2. Model of unplanned smoking initiation of children and adolescents: an integrated stage model of smoking behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kremers, S P J; Mudde, A N; De Vries, H

    2004-05-01

    Two lines of psychological research have attempted to spell out the stages of adolescent smoking initiation. The first has focused on behavioral stages of smoking initiation, while the second line emphasized motivational stages. A large international sample of European adolescents (N = 10,170, mean age = 13.3 years) was followed longitudinally. Self-reported motivational and behavioral stages of smoking initiation were integrated, leading to the development of the Model of Unplanned Smoking Initiation of Children and Adolescents (MUSICA). The MUSICA postulates that youngsters experiment with smoking while they are in an unmotivated state as regards their plans for smoking regularly in the future. More than 95% of the total population resided in one of the seven stages distinguished by MUSICA. The probability of starting to smoke regularly during the 12 months follow-up period increased with advanced stage assignment at baseline. Unique social cognitive predictors of stage progression from the various stages were identified, but effect sizes of predictors of transitions were small. The integration of motivational and behavioral dimensions improves our understanding of the process of smoking initiation. In contrast to current theories of smoking initiation, adolescent uptake of smoking behavior was found to be an unplanned action.

  3. Modeling Enterprise Authorization: A Unified Metamodel and Initial Validation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matus Korman

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Authorization and its enforcement, access control, have stood at the beginning of the art and science of information security, and remain being crucial pillar of security in the information technology (IT and enterprises operations. Dozens of different models of access control have been proposed. Although Enterprise Architecture as the discipline strives to support the management of IT, support for modeling access policies in enterprises is often lacking, both in terms of supporting the variety of individual models of access control nowadays used, and in terms of providing a unified ontology capable of flexibly expressing access policies for all or the most of the models. This study summarizes a number of existing models of access control, proposes a unified metamodel mapped to ArchiMate, and illustrates its use on a selection of example scenarios and two business cases.

  4. Initial studies in the modelling of position resolving cryogenic detectors

    CERN Document Server

    Ashby, J V; Greenough, C S

    2002-01-01

    In this paper, we describe some results in the modelling of a Cryogenic Detector. These detectors use the heat generated from an X-ray event to determine the event's time and position. The model makes the basic assumption that the heat transport can be represented through by linear diffusion process and that the times at which the temperature changes reach the edge sensors can be used to determine the position of the event. The paper develops a finite element model of the device and performs a series of numerical experiments. The results of these experiments are compared with a simple analytic model. Two methods of determining the event position are presented: one based on an analytic solution and a second using neural network.

  5. Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Juel-Christiansen, Carsten

    2005-01-01

    Artiklen fremhæver den visuelle rotation - billeder, tegninger, modeller, værker - som det privilligerede medium i kommunikationen af ideer imellem skabende arkitekter......Artiklen fremhæver den visuelle rotation - billeder, tegninger, modeller, værker - som det privilligerede medium i kommunikationen af ideer imellem skabende arkitekter...

  6. Simulating microbial denitrification with EPIC: Model description and initial testing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Izaurralde, Roberto C.; Mcgill, William B.; Williams, Jimmy R.; Jones, Curtis D.; Link, Robert P.; Manowitz, D.; Schwab, D. E.; Zhang, Xuesong; Robertson, G. P.; Milar, Neville

    2017-09-01

    Microbial denitrification occurs in anaerobic soil microsites and aquatic environments leading to production of N2O and N2 gases, which eventually escape to the atmosphere. Atmospheric concentrations of N2O have been on the rise since the beginning of the industrial revolution due to large-scale manipulations of the N cycle in managed ecosystems, especially the use of synthetic nitrogenous fertilizer. Here we document and test a microbial denitrification model identified as IMWJ and implemented as a submodel in the EPIC terrestrial ecosystem model. The IMWJ model is resolved on an hourly time step using the concept that C oxidation releases electrons that drive a demand for electron acceptors such as O2 and oxides of N (NO3-, NO2-, and N2O). A spherical diffusion approach is used to describe O2 transport to microbial surfaces while a cylindrical diffusion method is employed to depict O2 transport to root surfaces. Oxygen uptake by microbes and roots is described with Michaelis-Menten kinetic equations. If insufficient O2 is present to accept all electrons generated, the deficit for electron acceptors may be met by oxides of nitrogen, if available. The movement of O2, CO2 and N2O through the soil profile is modeled using the gas transport equation solved on hourly or sub-hourly time steps. Bubbling equations also move N2O and N2 through the liquid phase to the soil surface under highly anaerobic conditions. We used results from a 2-yr field experiment conducted in 2007 and 2008 at a field site in southwest Michigan to test the ability of EPIC, with the IMWJ option, to capture the non-linear response of N2O fluxes as a function of increasing rates of N application to maize [Zea mays L.]. Nitrous oxide flux, soil inorganic N, and ancillary data from 2007 were used for EPIC calibration while 2008 data were used for independent model validation. Overall, EPIC reproduced well the timing and magnitude of N2O fluxes and NO3- mass in surficial soil layers after N

  7. Multiple Model-Based Robot Control: Development and Initial Evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    1988-12-01

    the control systems must be as precise as possible to ac- count for high speed robot dynamics . Previous research has shown that payload adaptation is...model for robot dynamics is adequate, and that the coefficients of the model are estimated on-line DD79,Ser87,LE97,KG83]. The adaptive per- turbation...eigenvalues of F(a, t) revealed that linearized robot dynamics was a function of the trajectory and had a weak dependence on payload. The slight F(a

  8. Puzzling initial conditions in the R_h=ct model

    CERN Document Server

    Bengochea, Gabriel R

    2016-01-01

    In recent years, some studies have drawn attention to the lack of large-angle correlations in the observed cosmic microwave background (CMB) temperature anisotropies with respect to that predicted within the standard LCDM model. Lately, some authors have shown that such a lack of correlations could be explained in the framework of the so-called R_h=ct model without inflation. The aim of this work is to find a mechanism to generate, through a quantum field theory, the primordial power spectrum presented by these authors. Specifically, we consider two different scenarios: first, we assume a scalar field dominating the early universe in the R_h=ct cosmological model, and second, we deal with the possibility of adding an early inflationary phase to the mentioned model. We analyze the consistency between the predicted and observed amplitudes of the CMB temperature anisotropies in both scenarios. During this search, we run into deep issues which could indicate that it is not clear how to characterize the primordial...

  9. NASA SPoRT Initialization Datasets for Local Model Runs in the Environmental Modeling System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Case, Jonathan L.; LaFontaine, Frank J.; Molthan, Andrew L.; Carcione, Brian; Wood, Lance; Maloney, Joseph; Estupinan, Jeral; Medlin, Jeffrey M.; Blottman, Peter; Rozumalski, Robert A.

    2011-01-01

    The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center has developed several products for its National Weather Service (NWS) partners that can be used to initialize local model runs within the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Environmental Modeling System (EMS). These real-time datasets consist of surface-based information updated at least once per day, and produced in a composite or gridded product that is easily incorporated into the WRF EMS. The primary goal for making these NASA datasets available to the WRF EMS community is to provide timely and high-quality information at a spatial resolution comparable to that used in the local model configurations (i.e., convection-allowing scales). The current suite of SPoRT products supported in the WRF EMS include a Sea Surface Temperature (SST) composite, a Great Lakes sea-ice extent, a Greenness Vegetation Fraction (GVF) composite, and Land Information System (LIS) gridded output. The SPoRT SST composite is a blend of primarily the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) infrared and Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for Earth Observing System data for non-precipitation coverage over the oceans at 2-km resolution. The composite includes a special lake surface temperature analysis over the Great Lakes using contributions from the Remote Sensing Systems temperature data. The Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Ice Percentage product is used to create a sea-ice mask in the SPoRT SST composite. The sea-ice mask is produced daily (in-season) at 1.8-km resolution and identifies ice percentage from 0 100% in 10% increments, with values above 90% flagged as ice.

  10. Reproducibility of scratch assays is affected by the initial degree of confluence: Experiments, modelling and model selection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Wang; Shah, Esha T; Penington, Catherine J; McCue, Scott W; Chopin, Lisa K; Simpson, Matthew J

    2016-02-01

    Scratch assays are difficult to reproduce. Here we identify a previously overlooked source of variability which could partially explain this difficulty. We analyse a suite of scratch assays in which we vary the initial degree of confluence (initial cell density). Our results indicate that the rate of re-colonisation is very sensitive to the initial density. To quantify the relative roles of cell migration and proliferation, we calibrate the solution of the Fisher-Kolmogorov model to cell density profiles to provide estimates of the cell diffusivity, D, and the cell proliferation rate, λ. This procedure indicates that the estimates of D and λ are very sensitive to the initial density. This dependence suggests that the Fisher-Kolmogorov model does not accurately represent the details of the collective cell spreading process, since this model assumes that D and λ are constants that ought to be independent of the initial density. Since higher initial cell density leads to enhanced spreading, we also calibrate the solution of the Porous-Fisher model to the data as this model assumes that the cell flux is an increasing function of the cell density. Estimates of D and λ associated with the Porous-Fisher model are less sensitive to the initial density, suggesting that the Porous-Fisher model provides a better description of the experiments.

  11. Modeling the initial contact line dynamics of dewetting bubbles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Menesses, Mark; Laurent, Matthieu; Bird, James

    2016-11-01

    When a rising bubble comes to rest beneath a solid horizontal surface, the resulting liquid film dewets to minimize the total free energy of the three phase system. For partially wetting surfaces, the presence of the contact angle yields dynamics which are assumed to be governed by viscous effects. In contrast, the early-time dynamics for drops spreading on partially wetting surfaces are dominated by inertial effects. Motivated by the discrepancy between these two systems, we conduct experiments on dewetting bubbles and find that the short-time dynamics fail to obey purely viscous or inertial scalings. We draw from previously proposed dewetting and spreading models to develop a new model that can rationalize the anomalous scalings that we observe. Our results suggest that the speed that a bubble adheres to a partially wetting surface is set by an interplay of capillary waves and contact line motion. We acknowledge support from ONR, Saint-Gobain, and NSF GRFP.

  12. Structural Equation Modeling with Lisrel: An Initial Vision

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Naresh K Malhotra

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available LISREL is considered one of the most robust software packages for Structural Equation Modeling with covariance matrices, while it is also considered complex and difficult to use. In this special issue of the Brazilian Journal of Marketing, we aim to present the main functions of LISREL, its features and, through a didactic example, reduce the perceived difficulty of using it. We also provide helpful guidelines to properly using this technique.

  13. Modelling

    CERN Document Server

    Spädtke, P

    2013-01-01

    Modeling of technical machines became a standard technique since computer became powerful enough to handle the amount of data relevant to the specific system. Simulation of an existing physical device requires the knowledge of all relevant quantities. Electric fields given by the surrounding boundary as well as magnetic fields caused by coils or permanent magnets have to be known. Internal sources for both fields are sometimes taken into account, such as space charge forces or the internal magnetic field of a moving bunch of charged particles. Used solver routines are briefly described and some bench-marking is shown to estimate necessary computing times for different problems. Different types of charged particle sources will be shown together with a suitable model to describe the physical model. Electron guns are covered as well as different ion sources (volume ion sources, laser ion sources, Penning ion sources, electron resonance ion sources, and H$^-$-sources) together with some remarks on beam transport.

  14. An isentropic and sigma coordinate hybrid numerical model - Model development and some initial tests. [for atmospheric simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uccellini, L. W.; Johnson, D. R.; Schlesinger, R. E.

    1979-01-01

    A solution is presented for matching boundary conditions across the interface of an isentropic and sigma coordinate hybrid model. A hybrid model based on the flux form of the primitive equations is developed which allows direct vertical exchange between the model domains, satisfies conservation principles with respect to transport processes, and maintains a smooth transition across the interface without need for artificial adjustment or parameterization schemes. The initial hybrid model simulations of a jet streak propagating in a zonal channel are used to test the feasibility of the hybrid model approach. High efficiency of the hybrid model is demonstrated.

  15. Alternative DFN model based on initial site investigations at Simpevarp

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Darcel, C. [Itasca Consultants, Ecully (France); Davy, S.A.P.; Bour, O.; Dreuzy, J.R. de [Geosciences, Rennes (France)

    2004-12-01

    In this report, we provide a first-order analysis of the fracture network at the Simpevarp site. The first order model is the fracture distribution function, noted, fdf, which provides the number of fractures having a given orientation and length, and belonging to a given volume of observation. The first-order distribution model does not describe higher-order correlation between fracture parameters, such as a possible dependency of fracture length distribution with orientations. We also check that most of the information is contained in this 1st-order distribution model, and that dividing the fracture networks into different sets do not bring a better statistical description. The fracture distribution function contains 3 main distributions: the probability distribution of fracture orientations, the dependency on the size of the sampling domain that may exhibit non-trivial scaling in case of fractal correlations, and the fracture-length density distribution, which appears to be well fitted by a power law. The main scaling parameters are the fractal dimension and the power-law exponent of the fracture length distribution. The former was found to be about equal to the embedding dimension, meaning that fractal correlations are weak and can be neglected in the DFN model. The latter depends on geology, that is either lithology or grain size, with values that ranges from 3.2 for granite-like outcrops to 4 for diorite or monzodiorite outcrops, as well as for the large-scale lineament maps. When analyzing the consistency of the different datasets (boreholes, outcrops, lineament maps), we found that two different DFNs can be described: the first one is derived from the fdf of the outcrop with fine-grained size lithology, and is valid across all scales investigated in this study, from the highly-fractured cores to large-scale maps; the second one is derived from the fdf of the outcrops with coarse-grained size lithology, and is found consistent with cores that present the

  16. Modeling of Future Initial Teacher of Foreign Language Training, Using Situation Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maryana М. Sidun

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available The article discloses the content of modeling of future initial teacher of foreign language, using situation analysis, defines the stages of modeling during the professional competence formation of future teacher of foreign language: preparatory, analytical and executive.

  17. Maternal, Infant Characteristics, Breastfeeding Techniques, and Initiation: Structural Equation Modeling Approaches

    OpenAIRE

    2015-01-01

    Objectives The aim of this study was to examine the relationships among maternal and infant characteristics, breastfeeding techniques, and exclusive breastfeeding initiation in different modes of birth using structural equation modeling approaches. Methods We examined a hypothetical model based on integrating concepts of a breastfeeding decision-making model, a breastfeeding initiation model, and a social cognitive theory among 952 mother-infant dyads. The LATCH breastfeeding assessment tool ...

  18. model

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    trie neural construction oí inoiviouo! unci communal identities in ... occurs, Including models based on Information processing,1 ... Applying the DSM descriptive approach to dissociation in the ... a personal, narrative path lhal connects personal lo ethnic ..... managed the problem in the context of the community, using a.

  19. A policy model to initiate environmental negotiations: Three hydropower workshops

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lamb, Berton Lee; Taylor, Jonathan G.; Burkardt, Nina; Ponds, Phadrea D.

    1998-01-01

    How do I get started in natural resource negotiations? Natural resource managers often face difficult negotiations when they implement laws and policies regulating such resources as water, wildlife, wetlands, endangered species, and recreation. As a result of these negotiations, managers must establish rules, grant permits, or create management plans. The Legal‐Institutional Analysis Model (LIAM) was designed to assist managers in systematically analyzing the parties in natural resource negotiations and using that analysis to prepare for bargaining. The LIAM relies on the theory that organizations consistently employ behavioral roles. The model uses those roles to predict likely negotiation behavior. One practical use of the LIAM is when all parties to a negotiation conduct a workshop as a way to open the bargaining on a note of trust and mutual understanding. The process and results of three LIAM workshops designed to guide hydroelectric power licensing negotiations are presented. Our experience with these workshops led us to conclude that the LIAM can be an effective tool to begin a negotiation and that trust built through the workshops can help create a successful result.

  20. Modeling Initiation into Drug Injection among Street Youth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roy, Elise; Godin, Gaston; Boudreau, Jean-Francois; Cote, Philippe-Benoit; Denis, Veronique; Haley, Nancy; Leclerc, Pascale; Boivin, Jean-Francois

    2011-01-01

    This study aimed at examining the predictors of initiation into drug injection among street youth using social cognitive theory framework. A prospective cohort study based on semi-annual interviews was carried out. Psychosocial determinants referred to avoidance of initiation. Other potential predictors were: sociodemographic characteristics,…

  1. A linear regression modelling of the relation- ship between initial ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Keywords: Relationship, initial & final construction time, project delivery. Dr Ayodeji .... major factors necessitating the integration of construction experience into ..... existing contractor evaluation methods to a new baseline that includes the ...

  2. Fatigue-crack-initiation numerical modelling of a Ni-base powder metallurgy alloy

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2012-01-01

    A simplified three-dimensional numerical model was presented to simulate the micro-crack nucleation and growth to some predefined dimension(approximately 0.38 mm) on the throat surface of a Ni-base powder metallurgy(PM) specimen.The numerical simulation of micro-crack initiation was based on the Tanaka-Mura micro-crack initiation models,where individual grains of the mesoscopic model were simulated using the Voronoi tessellation.Four improvements were made in the model.(1) Considering crack initiation along with 12 principal slip systems on octahedral slip planes of face centered cubic(FCC) crystal in three-dimensional(3-D) models.(2) Considering the effect of secondary phase precipitate due to impinging slip and dislocation pileup.(3) The Tanaka-Mura theory of fatigue-crack-initiation from notches was applied to simulate the crack initiation from another crack tip.(4) The coalescence of random initiated micro-cracks was simulated once they intersected with each other and a macro-crack was finally formed.The calculated results were in good agreement with the experimental data which verified the rationality of the simulation model.The applicability of the proposed model for treating fatigue-crack-initiation life in engineering structures was preliminarily achieved.%A simplified three-dimensional numerical model was presented to simulate the micro-crack nucleation and growth to some predefined dimension(approximately 0.38 mm) on the throat surface of a Ni-base powder metallurgy(PM) specimen.The numerical simulation of micro-crack initiation was based on the Tanaka-Mura micro-crack initiation models,where individual grains of the mesoscopic model were simulated using the Voronoi tessellation.Four improvements were made in the model.(1) Considering crack initiation along with 12 principal slip systems on octahedral slip planes of face centered cubic(FCC) crystal in three-dimensional(3-D) models.(2) Considering the effect of secondary phase

  3. New Models for Initial Teacher Education in Scotland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kibble, Bob

    2012-01-01

    In this article, the author responds to the recent article by Lynne Bianchi commenting on the Donaldson report, "Teaching Scotland's future" (Donaldson, 2011). He agrees that the Donaldson report has indeed been a catalyst to drive change across the entire landscape of initial teacher education (ITE) in Scotland. In fact, not only ITE: the report…

  4. The initial establishment of the tectonic block motion model of China from space geodetic data

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2000-01-01

    Using the velocity fields of 28 GPS sites in China and its contiguous area and International Terrestrial Reference Frame ITRF96, an initial tectonic block motion model of China was established. The model was quite consistent with those obtained from the geologic data. The model could show the sketch of China crustal horizontal motion.

  5. Comparing the Effectiveness of Two Models of Initial Teacher Education Programmes in Israel: Concurrent vs. Consecutive

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zuzovsky, Ruth; Donitsa-Schmidt, Smadar

    2017-01-01

    The purpose of the present study was to examine the effectiveness of two common models of initial teacher education programmes that are prevalent in many countries, including Israel. The two are: the concurrent model, in which disciplinary studies and pedagogical studies are integrated and taught at the same time; and the consecutive model, which…

  6. Modeling Thermokarst Dynamics in Alaska Ecosystems: Description of the Predisposition and Initiation/Expansion Sub-models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Y.; McGuire, A. D.; Genet, H.; Bolton, W. R.; Romanovsky, V. E.; Grosse, G.; Jorgenson, T.; Lara, M.

    2013-12-01

    Warming in northern high latitude regions is increasing the vulnerability of permafrost to thawing. In ice-rich soils, permafrost degradation may result in ground surface subsidence and may cause transitions among ecosystems. These transitions are the result of significant changes in the local hydrology and soil thermal regime that impact vegetation composition and nutrient and carbon cycles. The Alaska Thermokarst Model (ATM) is a state-and-transition model that is being developed to predict thermokarst disturbance in response to climate warming. Predicting thermokarst disturbance requires (1) identifying the proportion of the landscape that is predisposed to thermokarst disturbance, and (2) calculating the proportion of the predisposed landscape that will be disturbed by thermokarst. To address these issues, two sub-models are being developed in the ATM: (1) a predisposition sub-model and (2) an initiation/expansion sub-model. The predisposition sub-model uses ground ice content, and lowland and permafrost distributions to determine the area of the landscape that is predisposed to thermokarst disturbance. In areas that are predisposed to thermokarst disturbance, the initiation/expansion model calculates (1) the area of the landscape in which thermokarst is initiated, and (2) and the annual expansion of the existing thermokarst features in the landscape. The ATM model has been designed to be integrated into the Alaska Integrated Ecosystem Model (AIEM), which includes coupled models of fire disturbance, soil thermal dynamics, and ecosystem structure and function at 1km*1km resolution. The initial application of the ATM in a test area located within the Alaskan boreal forest ecosystem is presented as a 'proof-of-concept' in this presentation.

  7. Exploring the Process of Implementing Healthy Workplace Initiatives: Mapping to Kotter's Leading Change Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chappell, Stacie; Pescud, Melanie; Waterworth, Pippa; Shilton, Trevor; Roche, Dee; Ledger, Melissa; Slevin, Terry; Rosenberg, Michael

    2016-10-01

    The aim of this study was to use Kotter's leading change model to explore the implementation of workplace health and wellbeing initiatives. Qualitative interviews were conducted with 31 workplace representatives with a healthy workplace initiative. None of the workplaces used a formal change management model when implementing their healthy workplace initiatives. Not all of the steps in Kotter model were considered necessary and the order of the steps was challenged. For example, interviewees perceived that communicating the vision, developing the vision, and creating a guiding coalition were integral parts of the process, although there was less emphasis on the importance of creating a sense of urgency and consolidating change. Although none of the workplaces reported using a formal organizational change model when implementing their healthy workplace initiatives, there did appear to be perceived merit in using the steps in Kotter's model.

  8. Evaluating MJO Event Initiation and Decay in the Skeleton Model using an RMM-like Index

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-11-25

    the skeleton model. 441 The decrease in the number of separate MJO events in the skeleton model while 442 maintaining a nearly equal or slightly...Climate, 26, 859 1130-1151. 860 Thual, S., and A. J. Majda (2015), A skeleton model for the MJO with refined vertical structure, 861 Climate Dynam...1 2 Evaluating MJO Event Initiation and Decay in the Skeleton Model using an RMM-like Index 3 4 5 Justin P. Stachnik*1,2, Duane E

  9. Spin-up behavior and effects of initial conditions for an integrated hydrologic model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seck, Alimatou; Welty, Claire; Maxwell, Reed M.

    2015-04-01

    Initial conditions have been shown to have a strong effect on outputs of surface water models, but their impact on integrated hydrologic models is not well documented. We investigated the effects of initial conditions on an integrated hydrologic model of a 5632 km2 domain in the northeastern U.S. Simulations were run for the year 1980 using four initial conditions spanning a range of average depth to water table, including 1 m ("wet"), 3m, 5m, and 7 m ("dry") below land surface. Model outputs showed significant effects of initial conditions on basin-averaged variables such as subsurface storage, surface storage, and surface runoff, with the greatest impact observed on surface storage and runoff. Effects of initial conditions were related to meteorological conditions, with precipitation reducing the effects of initial conditions on surface storage and runoff. Additionally, feedbacks between soil moisture and land-energy fluxes affected the impacts of initial conditions: higher temperatures magnified the differences in storage, recharge, and discharge among the four initial-condition scenarios. Ten year recursive runs were conducted for the wet and dry scenarios. Spin-up times varied by model components and were considerably smaller for land-surface states and fluxes. Spin-up for dry initial conditions was slower than for wet initial conditions, indicating longer system memory for dry initial conditions. These variations in persistence of initial conditions should be taken into consideration when designing model initialization approaches. More broadly, this behavior is indicative of increased persistence of the effects of dry years as opposed to wet years in hydrologic systems.

  10. An initial-abstraction, constant-loss model for unit hydrograph modeling for applicable watersheds in Texas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asquith, William H.; Roussel, Meghan C.

    2007-01-01

    Estimation of representative hydrographs from design storms, which are known as design hydrographs, provides for cost-effective, riskmitigated design of drainage structures such as bridges, culverts, roadways, and other infrastructure. During 2001?07, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Texas Department of Transportation, investigated runoff hydrographs, design storms, unit hydrographs,and watershed-loss models to enhance design hydrograph estimation in Texas. Design hydrographs ideally should mimic the general volume, peak, and shape of observed runoff hydrographs. Design hydrographs commonly are estimated in part by unit hydrographs. A unit hydrograph is defined as the runoff hydrograph that results from a unit pulse of excess rainfall uniformly distributed over the watershed at a constant rate for a specific duration. A time-distributed, watershed-loss model is required for modeling by unit hydrographs. This report develops a specific time-distributed, watershed-loss model known as an initial-abstraction, constant-loss model. For this watershed-loss model, a watershed is conceptualized to have the capacity to store or abstract an absolute depth of rainfall at and near the beginning of a storm. Depths of total rainfall less than this initial abstraction do not produce runoff. The watershed also is conceptualized to have the capacity to remove rainfall at a constant rate (loss) after the initial abstraction is satisfied. Additional rainfall inputs after the initial abstraction is satisfied contribute to runoff if the rainfall rate (intensity) is larger than the constant loss. The initial abstraction, constant-loss model thus is a two-parameter model. The initial-abstraction, constant-loss model is investigated through detailed computational and statistical analysis of observed rainfall and runoff data for 92 USGS streamflow-gaging stations (watersheds) in Texas with contributing drainage areas from 0.26 to 166 square miles. The analysis is

  11. Timing of ketogenic diet initiation in an experimental epilepsy model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Su, S W; Cilio, M R; Sogawa, Y; Silveira, D C; Holmes, G L; Stafstrom, C E; Silveira, D

    2000-12-29

    Following kainic acid (KA)-induced status epilepticus (SE), the ketogenic diet (KD) retards the development of epileptogenesis, with fewer spontaneous recurrent seizures (SRS) and less mossy fiber sprouting than rats on a normal diet. In this study, we investigated whether there is a critical period for initiation of the KD, in terms of the diet's effectiveness in reducing SRS. In addition, we investigated whether early treatment with the KD prevents the deficits in spatial learning and memory that ordinarily follow KA-induced SE. Young rats (P30) underwent KA-induced SE, followed by assignment to one of three treatment groups: control diet ('KA'), KD begun 2 days after SE ('KD2'), and KD begun fourteen days after SE ('KD14'). For 12 weeks following SE, rats were monitored by closed circuit video recording (12 h/wk) to detect SRS. KD2 rats had significantly fewer SRS than rats in the control or KD14 groups. On water maze testing to assess spatial learning and memory, KD2 rats had significantly poorer acquisition of place learning than control (KA alone) or KD14 rats. KD2 rats also failed to gain weight well. There was no difference between groups on routine histologic examination of the hippocampus. In summary, P30 rats placed on the KD 2 days after SE were relatively protected from recurrent seizures, but showed behavioral and physical impairment. Rats placed on the KD 14 days after KA-induced SE did not differ from controls with regard to spontaneous seizure rate.

  12. Next generation experiments and models for shock initiation and detonation of solid explosives

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tarver, C M

    1999-06-01

    Current phenomenological hydrodynamic reactive flow models, such as Ignition and Growth and Johnson- Tang-Forest, when normalized to embedded gauge and laser velocimetry data, have been very successful in predicting shock initiation and detonation properties of solid explosives in most scenarios. However, since these models use reaction rates based on the compression and pressure of the reacting mixture, they can not easily model situations in which the local temperature, which controls the local reaction rate, changes differently from the local pressure. With the advent of larger, faster, parallel computers, microscopic modeling of the hot spot formation processes and Arrhenius chemical kinetic reaction rates that dominate shock initiation and detonation can now be attempted. Such a modeling effort can not be successful without nanosecond or better time resolved experimental data on these processes. The experimental and modeling approaches required to build the next generation of physically realistic reactive flow models are discussed.

  13. Modeling the material properties at the onset of damage initiation in bulk potassium dihydrogen phosphate crystals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Demos, Stavros G.; Feit, Michael D.; Duchateau, Guillaume

    2014-10-01

    A model simulating transient optical properties during laser damage in the bulk of KDP/DKDP crystals is presented. The model was developed and tested using as a benchmark its ability to reproduce the well-documented damage initiation behaviors but most importantly, the salient behavior of the wavelength dependence of the damage threshold. The model involves two phases. During phase I, the model assumes a moderate localized initial absorption that is strongly enhanced during the laser pulse via excited state absorption and thermally driven generation of additional point defects in the surrounding material. The model suggests that during a fraction of the pulse duration, the host material around the defect cluster is transformed into a strong absorber that leads to significant increase of the local temperature. During phase II, the model suggests that the excitation pathway consists mainly of one photon absorption events within a quasicontinuum of short-lived vibronic defect states spanning the band gap that was generated after the initial localized heating of the material due to thermal quenching of the excited state lifetimes. The width of the transition (steps) between different number of photons is governed by the instantaneous temperature, which was estimated using the experimental data. The model also suggests that the critical physical parameter prior to initiation of breakdown is the conduction band electron density. This model, employing very few free parameters, for the first time is able to quantitatively reproduce the wavelength dependence of the damage initiation threshold, and thus provides important insight into the physical processes involved.

  14. Initiation-promotion model of tumor prevalence in mice from space radiation exposures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cucinotta, F A; Wilson, J W

    1995-08-01

    Exposures in space consist of low-level background components from galactic cosmic rays (GCR), occasional intense-energetic solar-particle events, periodic passes through geomagnetic-trapped radiation, and exposure from possible onboard nuclear-propulsion engines. Risk models for astronaut exposure from such diverse components and modalities must be developed to assure adequate protection in future NASA missions. The low-level background exposures (GCR), including relativistic heavy ions (HZE), will be the ultimate limiting factor for astronaut career exposure. We consider herein a two-mutation, initiation-promotion, radiation-carcinogenesis model in mice in which the initiation stage is represented by a linear kinetics model of cellular repair/misrepair, including the track-structure model for heavy ion action cross-sections. The model is validated by comparison with the harderian gland tumor experiments of Alpen et al. for various ion beams. We apply the initiation-promotion model to exposures from galactic cosmic rays, using models of the cosmic-ray environment and heavy ion transport, and consider the effects of the age of the mice prior to and after the exposure and of the length of time in space on predictions of relative risk. Our results indicate that biophysical models of age-dependent radiation hazard will provide a better understanding of GCR risk than models that rely strictly on estimates of the initial slopes of these radiations.

  15. Modelling the initial structure dynamics of soil and sediment exemplified for a constructed hydrological catchment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maurer, Thomas; Schneider, Anna; Gerke, Horst H.

    2014-05-01

    Knowledge about spatial heterogeneity is of essential for the analysis of the hydrological catchment behavior. Heterogeneity is directly related to the distribution of the solid phase, and in initial hydrological systems, the solid phase is mainly composed of mineral particles. In artificial catchments, such sediment structures relate to the applied construction technology. It is supposed that the development of catchment ecosystems is strongly influenced by such specific initial spatial distributions of the solid phase. Moreover, during the initial development period, the primary structures in a catchment are altered rapidly by translocation processes, thereby subdividing the initial system in different compartments. Questions are: How does initial sediment distribution affect further structural development? How is catchment hydrology influenced by the initial structural development? What structures have a relevant impact on catchment-scale hydrological behavior? We present results from a structural modelling approach using a process-based structure generator program. The constructed hydrological catchment 'Hühnerwasser' (Lower Lusatia, Brandenburg, Germany) served exemplarily for the model development. A set of scenarios was created describing possible initial heterogeneities of the catchment. Both the outcrop site from where the parent material was excavated and the specific excavation procedures were considered in the modelling approach. Generated distributions are incorporated in a gridded 3D volume model constructed with the GOCAD software. Results were evaluated by semivariogram analysis and by quantifying point-to-point deviations. We also introduce a modelling conception for simulating the highly dynamic initial structural change, based on the generated initial distributions. We present a strategy on how to develop the initial structure generator into an integrative tool in order to (i) simulate and analyse the spatio-temporal development dynamics

  16. NUMERICAL EXPERIMENTS AND ANALYSIS OF DIGITAL FILTER INITIALIZATION FOR WRF MODEL

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Shu-chang; HUANG Si-xun; ZHANG Wei-min; ZHU Xiao-qian; CAO Xiao-qun; LI Yi

    2008-01-01

    Initialization and initial imbalance problem were discussed in the context of a three-dimensional variational data assimilation system of the new generation "Weather Research and Forecasting Model". Severaloptions of digital filter initialization have been tested with a rain storm case. It is shown that digital filter initialization, especially diabatic digital filter initialization and twice digital filter initialization, have effectively removed spurious high frequency noise from initial data for numerical weather prediction and produced balanced initial conditions. For six consecutive intermittent data assimilation cycles covering a 3-day period, mean initialization increments and impact on forecast variables are studied. DFI has been demonstrated to provide better adjustment of the hydrometeors and vertical velocity, reduced spin-up time, and improved forecast variables quantity.

  17. Nonequilibrium critical dynamics of the two-dimensional Ising model quenched from a correlated initial state.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Környei, László; Pleimling, Michel; Iglói, Ferenc

    2008-01-01

    The universality class, even the order of the transition, of the two-dimensional Ising model depends on the range and the symmetry of the interactions (Onsager model, Baxter-Wu model, Turban model, etc.), but the critical temperature is generally the same due to self-duality. Here we consider a sudden change in the form of the interaction and study the nonequilibrium critical dynamical properties of the nearest-neighbor model. The relaxation of the magnetization and the decay of the autocorrelation function are found to display a power law behavior with characteristic exponents that depend on the universality class of the initial state.

  18. Fundamental study of crack initiation and propagation. [Computer model of ductile fracture

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Norris, D.M. Jr.; Reaugh, J.E.; Moran, B.; Quinones, D.F.; Wilkins, M.L.

    1977-12-21

    Objective is to determine the fracture toughness of A533B-1 steel by computer modeling Charpy V-notch tests. A computer model of ductile fracture was developed that predicts fracture initiation. The model contains a set of material-dependent parameters obtained by computer simulations of small specimen tests. The computer calculations give detailed stress and strain histories up to the time of fracture, which are used to determine the model parameter values. The calibrated fracture model, that correctly predicts fracture initiation (and initiation energy) in the Charpy specimen, may then be used to simulate tests of accepted fracture-toughness specimens and hence obtain fracture toughness. The model parameters were calibrated to predict fracture in four different test specimens: two different notched-tension specimens, a simple tension specimen, and a precracked compact-tension specimen. The model was then used in a computer simulation of the Charpy V-notch specimen to initiate and advance a flat fracture. Results were compared with interrupted Charpy tests. Calibration of the model for two additional heat treatments of A533B-1 steel is in progress.

  19. ASYMPTOTICS OF INITIAL BOUNDARY VALUE PROBLEMS OF BIPOLAR HYDRODYNAMIC MODEL FOR SEMICONDUCTORS

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Ju Qiangchang

    2004-01-01

    In this paper, we study the asymptotic behavior of the solutions to the bipolar hydrodynamic model with Dirichlet boundary conditions. It is shown that the initial boundary problem of the model admits a global smooth solution which decays to the steady state exponentially fast.

  20. Milford Redefined: A Model of Initial and Advanced Generalist Social Work.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schatz, Mona S.; And Others

    1990-01-01

    A model, dating its foundation to the Milford conferences in the 1920s, is presented that clarifies and advances concepts of both initial and advanced generalist social work. The model focuses on the interface between systems, uses a client-centered and problem-focused philosophy, and involves multiple theories and approaches for improving…

  1. What is the most realistic single-compartment model of spike initiation?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Romain Brette

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available A large variety of neuron models are used in theoretical and computational neuroscience, and among these, single-compartment models are a popular kind. These models do not explicitly include the dendrites or the axon, and range from the Hodgkin-Huxley (HH model to various flavors of integrate-and-fire (IF models. The main classes of models differ in the way spikes are initiated. Which one is the most realistic? Starting with some general epistemological considerations, I show that the notion of realism comes in two dimensions: empirical content (the sort of predictions that a model can produce and empirical accuracy (whether these predictions are correct. I then examine the realism of the main classes of single-compartment models along these two dimensions, in light of recent experimental evidence.

  2. On the initial value problem for a class of discrete velocity models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bellandi, Davide

    2017-02-01

    In this paper we investigate the initial value problem for a class of hyperbolic systems relating the mathematical modeling of a class of complex phenomena, with emphasis on vehicular traffic flow. Existence and uniqueness for large times of solutions, a basic requisite both for models building and for their numerical implementation, are obtained under weak hypotheses on the terms modeling the interaction among agents. The results are then compared with the existing literature on the subject.

  3. Cancer modelling in the NGS era - Part I: Emerging technology and initial modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rovigatti, Ugo

    2015-11-01

    It is today indisputable that great progresses have been made in our molecular understanding of cancer cells, but an effective implementation of such knowledge into dramatic cancer-cures is still belated and yet desperately needed. This review gives a snapshot at where we stand today in this search for cancer understanding and definitive treatments, how far we have progressed and what are the major obstacles we will have to overcome both technologically and for disease modelling. In the first part, promising 3rd/4th Generation Sequencing Technologies will be summarized (particularly IonTorrent and OxfordNanopore technologies). Cancer modelling will be then reviewed from its origin in XIX Century Germany to today's NGS applications for cancer understanding and therapeutic interventions. Developments after Molecular Biology revolution (1953) are discussed as successions of three phases. The first, PH1, labelled "Clonal Outgrowth" (from 1960s to mid 1980s) was characterized by discoveries in cytogenetics (Nowell, Rowley) and viral oncology (Dulbecco, Bishop, Varmus), which demonstrated clonality. Treatments were consequently dominated by a "cytotoxic eradication" strategy with chemotherapeutic agents. In PH2, (from the mid 1980s to our days) the description of cancer as "Gene Networks" led to targeted-gene-therapies (TGTs). TGTs are the focus of Section 3: in view of their apparent failing (Ephemeral Therapies), alternative strategies will be discussed in review part II (particularly cancer immunotherapy, CIT). Additional Pitfalls impinge on the concepts of tumour heterogeneity (inter/intra; ITH). The described pitfalls set the basis for a new phase, PH3, which is called "NGS Era" and will be also discussed with ten emerging cancer models in the Review 2nd part.

  4. Review of the global models used within phase 1 of the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morgenstern, Olaf; Hegglin, Michaela I.; Rozanov, Eugene; O'Connor, Fiona M.; Abraham, N. Luke; Akiyoshi, Hideharu; Archibald, Alexander T.; Bekki, Slimane; Butchart, Neal; Chipperfield, Martyn P.; Deushi, Makoto; Dhomse, Sandip S.; Garcia, Rolando R.; Hardiman, Steven C.; Horowitz, Larry W.; Jöckel, Patrick; Josse, Beatrice; Kinnison, Douglas; Lin, Meiyun; Mancini, Eva; Manyin, Michael E.; Marchand, Marion; Marécal, Virginie; Michou, Martine; Oman, Luke D.; Pitari, Giovanni; Plummer, David A.; Revell, Laura E.; Saint-Martin, David; Schofield, Robyn; Stenke, Andrea; Stone, Kane; Sudo, Kengo; Tanaka, Taichu Y.; Tilmes, Simone; Yamashita, Yousuke; Yoshida, Kohei; Zeng, Guang

    2017-02-01

    We present an overview of state-of-the-art chemistry-climate and chemistry transport models that are used within phase 1 of the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI-1). The CCMI aims to conduct a detailed evaluation of participating models using process-oriented diagnostics derived from observations in order to gain confidence in the models' projections of the stratospheric ozone layer, tropospheric composition, air quality, where applicable global climate change, and the interactions between them. Interpretation of these diagnostics requires detailed knowledge of the radiative, chemical, dynamical, and physical processes incorporated in the models. Also an understanding of the degree to which CCMI-1 recommendations for simulations have been followed is necessary to understand model responses to anthropogenic and natural forcing and also to explain inter-model differences. This becomes even more important given the ongoing development and the ever-growing complexity of these models. This paper also provides an overview of the available CCMI-1 simulations with the aim of informing CCMI data users.

  5. Modified Liu-Carter Compression Model for Natural Clays with Various Initial Water Contents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sen Qian

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The initial water content has a significant effect on the compression behaviour of reconstituted clays. This effect has to be considered in the Liu-Carter model to ensure the addition voids ratio only related to soil structure. A modified Liu-Carter compression model is proposed by introducing the empirical equations for reconstituted clays at different initial water contents into the Liu-Carter model. The proposed model is verified against the experimental results from the literature. The simulations by the proposed method are also compared with that by old method where the influence of initial water content is not considered. The results show that the predicted virgin compression curves of natural clays are similar, but the values of b and Δey may be very different.

  6. Can Milankovitch orbital variations initiate the growth of ice sheets in a general circulation model?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rind, D.; Peteet, D.; Kukla, G.

    1989-01-01

    The possibility of initiating the growth of ice sheets by solar insolation variations is examined. The study is conducted using a climate model with three different orbital configurations corresponding to 116,000 and 106,000 yr before the present and a modified insolation field with greater reductions in summer insolation at high northern latitudes. Despite the reduced summer and fall insolation, the model fails to maintain snow cover through the summer at locations of suspected ice sheet initiation. The results suggest that there is a discrepancy between the model's response to Milankovitch perturbations and the geophysical evidence of ice sheet initiation. If the model results are correct, the growth of ice shown by geophysical evidence would have occurred in an extremely ablative environment, demanding a complicated strategy.

  7. Proposal for initial collection efficiency models for direct granular upflow filtration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexandre Botari

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Mathematical models of the filtration process are based on the mass balance in the filter bed. Models of the filtration phenomenon describe the mass balance in bed filtration in terms of particle removal mechanisms, and allow for the determination of global particle removal efficiencies. This phenomenon is defined in terms of the geometry and the characteristic elements of granule collectors, particles and fluid, and the composition of the balance of forces that act in the particle collector system. This type of resolution is well known as the trajectory analysis theory. Particle trajectory analysis by mathematical correlation of the dimensionless numbers that represent fluid and particle characteristics is considered the main approach for mathematically modeling the initial collection efficiency of particle removal in water filtration. The existing initial collection efficiency models are designed for downflow filtration. This study analyzes initial collection efficiency models, and proposes an adaptation of these models to direct upflow filtration in a granular bed of coarse sand and gravel, taking into account the contribution of the gravitational factor of the settling removal efficiency in the proposal of initial collection efficiency models.

  8. Principal-subordinate hierarchical multi-objective programming model of initial water rights allocation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dan WU

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available The principal-subordinate hierarchical multi-objective programming model of initial water rights allocation was developed based on the principle of coordinated and sustainable development of different regions and water sectors within a basin. With the precondition of strictly controlling maximum emissions rights, initial water rights were allocated between the first and the second levels of the hierarchy in order to promote fair and coordinated development across different regions of the basin and coordinated and efficient water use across different water sectors, realize the maximum comprehensive benefits to the basin, promote the unity of quantity and quality of initial water rights allocation, and eliminate water conflict across different regions and water sectors. According to interactive decision-making theory, a principal-subordinate hierarchical interactive iterative algorithm based on the satisfaction degree was developed and used to solve the initial water rights allocation model. A case study verified the validity of the model.

  9. Principal-subordinate hierarchical multi-objective programming model of initial water rights allocation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Dan WU; Feng-ping WU; Yan-ping CHEN

    2009-01-01

    The principal-subordinate hierarchical multi-objective programming model of initial water rights allocation was developed based on the principle of coordinated and sustainable development of different regions and water sectors within a basin. With the precondition of strictly controlling maximum emissions rights, initial water rights were allocated between the first and the second levels of the hierarchy in order to promote fair and coordinated development across different regions of the basin and coordinated and efficient water use across different water sectors, realize the maximum comprehensive benefits to the basin, promote the unity of quantity and quality of initial water rights allocation, and eliminate water conflict across different regions and water sectors. According to interactive decision-making theory, a principal-subordinate hierarchical interactive iterative algorithm based on the satisfaction degree was developed and used to solve the initial water rights allocation model. A case study verified the validity of the model.

  10. Single and double shock initiation modelling for high explosive materials in last three decades

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hussain, T.; Yan, Liu

    2016-08-01

    The explosives materials are normally in an energetically metastable state. These can undergo rapid chemical decomposition only if sufficient energy has first been added to get the process started. Such energy can be provided by shocks. To predict the response of these materials under impacts of shocks of different strengths and durations and at various conditions, mathematical models are used. During the last three decades, a lot of research has been carried out and several shock initiation models have been presented. The models can be divided into continuum based and physics based models. In this study the single and double shock initiation models presented in last three decades have been reviewed and the ranges of their application has been discussed.

  11. Development and initial test of the University of Wisconsin global isentropic-sigma model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zapotocny, Tom H.; Johnson, Donald R.; Reames, Fred M.

    1994-01-01

    The description of a global version of the University of Wisconsin (UW) hybrid isentropic-sigma (theta-sigma) model and the results from an initial numerical weather prediction experiment are presented in this paper. The main objectives of this initial test are to (1) discuss theta-sigma model development and computer requirements, (2) demonstrate the ability of the UW theta-sigma model for global numerical weather prediction using realistic orography and parameterized physical processes, and (3) compare the transport of an inert trace constituent against a nominally 'identical' sigma coordinate model. Initial and verifying data for the 5-day simulations presented in this work were supplied by the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-1) data assimilation system. The time period studied is 1-6 February 1985. This validation experiment demonstrates that the global UW theta-sigma model produces a realistic 5-day simulation of the mass and momentum distributions when compared to both the identical sigma model and GEOS-1 verification. Root-mean-square errors demonstrate that the theta-sigma model is slightly more accurate than the nominally identical sigma model with respect to standard synoptic variables. Of particular importance, the UW theta-sigma model displays a distinct advantage over the conventional sigma model with respect to the prognostic simulation of inert trace constituent transport in amplifying baroclinic waves of the extratropics. This is especially true in the upper troposphere and stratosphere where the spatial integrity and conservation of an inert trace constituent is severely compromised in the sigma model compared to the theta-sigma model.

  12. Local and Nonlocal Impacts of Soil Moisture Initialization on AGCM Seasonal Forecasts: A Model Sensitivity Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, H.; Frederiksen, C. S.

    2003-07-01

    Using a version of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre (BMRC) atmospheric general circulation model, this study investigates the model's sensitivity to different soil moisture initial conditions in its dynamically extended seasonal forecasts of June-August 1998 climate anomalies, with focus on the south and northeast China regions where severe floods occurred. The authors' primary aim is to understand the model's responses to different soil moisture initial conditions in terms of the physical and dynamical processes involved. Due to a lack of observed global soil moisture data, the efficacy of using soil moisture anomalies derived from the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis is assessed. Results show that by imposing soil moisture percentile anomalies derived from the reanalysis data into the BMRC model initial condition, the regional features of the model's simulation of seasonal precipitation and temperature anomalies are modulated. Further analyses reveal that the impacts of soil moisture conditions on the model's surface temperature forecasts are mainly from localized interactions between land surface and the overlying atmosphere. In contrast, the model's sensitivity in its forecasts of rainfall anomalies is mainly due to the nonlocal impacts of the soil moisture conditions. Over the monsoon-dominated east Asian region, the contribution from local water recycling, through surface evaporation, to the model simulation of precipitation is limited. Rather, it is the horizontal moisture transport by the regional atmospheric circulation that is the dominant factor in controlling the model rainfall. The influence of different soil moisture conditions on the model forecasts of rainfall anomalies is the result of the response of regional circulation to the anomalous soil moisture condition imposed. Results from the BMRC model sensitivity study support similar findings from other model studies that have appeared in recent years and emphasize the importance of improving

  13. Comparison of mechanistic models in the initial rate enzymatic hydrolysis of AFEX-treated wheat straw

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Agbogbo Frank K

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Different mechanistic models have been used in the literature to describe the enzymatic hydrolysis of pretreated biomass. Although these different models have been applied to different substrates, most of these mechanistic models fit into two- and three-parameter mechanistic models. The purpose of this study is to compare the models and determine the activation energy and the enthalpy of adsorption of Trichoderma reesei enzymes on ammonia fibre explosion (AFEX-treated wheat straw. Experimental enzymatic hydrolysis data from AFEX-treated wheat straw were modelled with two- and three-parameter mechanistic models from the literature. In order to discriminate between the models, initial rate data at 49°C were subjected to statistical analysis (analysis of variance and scatter plots. Results For three-parameter models, the HCH-1 model best fitted the experimental data; for two-parameter models Michaelis-Menten (M-M best fitted the experimental data. All the three-parameter models fitted the data better than the two-parameter models. The best three models at 49°C (HCH-1, Huang and M-M were compared using initial rate data at three temperatures (35°, 42° and 49°C. The HCH-1 model provided the best fit based on the F values, the scatter plot and the residual sum of squares. Also, its kinetic parameters were linear in Arrhenius/van't Hoff's plots, unlike the other models. The activation energy (Ea is 47.6 kJ/mol and the enthalpy change of adsorption (ΔH is -118 kJ/mol for T. reesei enzymes on AFEX-treated wheat straw. Conclusion Among the two-parameter models, Michaelis-Menten model provided the best fit compared to models proposed by Humphrey and Wald. For the three-parameter models, HCH-1 provided the best fit because the model includes a fractional coverage parameter (ϕ which accounts for the number of reactive sites covered by the enzymes.

  14. Study of n-Butyl Acrylate Self-Initiation Reaction Experimentally and via Macroscopic Mechanistic Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmad Arabi Shamsabadi

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an experimental study of the self-initiation reaction of n-butyl acrylate (n-BA in free-radical polymerization. For the first time, the frequency factor and activation energy of the monomer self-initiation reaction are estimated from measurements of n-BA conversion in free-radical homo-polymerization initiated only by the monomer. The estimation was carried out using a macroscopic mechanistic mathematical model of the reactor. In addition to already-known reactions that contribute to the polymerization, the model considers a n-BA self-initiation reaction mechanism that is based on our previous electronic-level first-principles theoretical study of the self-initiation reaction. Reaction rate equations are derived using the method of moments. The reaction-rate parameter estimates obtained from conversion measurements agree well with estimates obtained via our purely-theoretical quantum chemical calculations.

  15. Representation of the Community Earth System Model (CESM1) CAM4-chem within the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tilmes, Simone; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Emmons, Louisa K.; Kinnison, Doug E.; Marsh, Dan; Garcia, Rolando R.; Smith, Anne K.; Neely, Ryan R.; Conley, Andrew; Vitt, Francis; Martin, Maria Val; Tanimoto, Hiroshi; Simpson, Isobel; Blake, Don R.; Blake, Nicola

    2016-05-01

    The Community Earth System Model (CESM1) CAM4-chem has been used to perform the Chemistry Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) reference and sensitivity simulations. In this model, the Community Atmospheric Model version 4 (CAM4) is fully coupled to tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry. Details and specifics of each configuration, including new developments and improvements are described. CESM1 CAM4-chem is a low-top model that reaches up to approximately 40 km and uses a horizontal resolution of 1.9° latitude and 2.5° longitude. For the specified dynamics experiments, the model is nudged to Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) reanalysis. We summarize the performance of the three reference simulations suggested by CCMI, with a focus on the last 15 years of the simulation when most observations are available. Comparisons with selected data sets are employed to demonstrate the general performance of the model. We highlight new data sets that are suited for multi-model evaluation studies. Most important improvements of the model are the treatment of stratospheric aerosols and the corresponding adjustments for radiation and optics, the updated chemistry scheme including improved polar chemistry and stratospheric dynamics and improved dry deposition rates. These updates lead to a very good representation of tropospheric ozone within 20 % of values from available observations for most regions. In particular, the trend and magnitude of surface ozone is much improved compared to earlier versions of the model. Furthermore, stratospheric column ozone of the Southern Hemisphere in winter and spring is reasonably well represented. All experiments still underestimate CO most significantly in Northern Hemisphere spring and show a significant underestimation of hydrocarbons based on surface observations.

  16. Dependence of River Network Scaling and Geomorphic Properties on Initial Conditions in Landscape Evolution Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poore, G. M.; Kieffer, S. W.

    2008-12-01

    Initial conditions affect river network scaling and geomorphic properties, but the effect has not been systematically studied. Previous numerical and experimental studies have found that initial conditions affect river network drainage patterns, determining whether patterns are more parallel or more dendritic. They have also found that some network properties depend on initial conditions. We investigated the effect of initial conditions in the context of numerical models, using simulations of a stream power law. A common initial condition consists of a flat or sloping surface combined with random fluctuations in elevation. We used these initial conditions and focused on the effect of the magnitude of initial slope and the magnitude of initial randomness on standard network scaling and geomorphic properties, such as the Hack exponent, sinuosity, and hypsometry. Preliminary results indicate that some of the scaling and geomorphic properties show a strong dependence on initial conditions, while others exhibit little or no dependence. The strength of dependence can be sensitive to the statistical methods employed. Our results are relevant to numerical and analog modeling methodologies. The results suggest that initial conditions deserve greater consideration in attempts to understand the emergence of scaling in river networks.

  17. An eikonal approach for the initiation of reentrant cardiac propagation in reaction-diffusion models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacquemet, Vincent

    2010-09-01

    Microscale electrical propagation in the heart can be modeled by a reaction-diffusion system, describing cell and tissue electrophysiology. Macroscale features of wavefront propagation can be reproduced by an eikonal model, a reduced formulation involving only wavefront shape. In this paper, these two approaches are combined to incorporate global information about reentrant pathways into a reaction-diffusion model. The eikonal-diffusion formulation is generalized to handle reentrant activation patterns and wavefront collisions. Boundary conditions are used to specify pathways of reentry. Finite-element-based numerical methods are presented to solve this nonlinear equation on a coarse triangular mesh. The macroscale eikonal model serves to construct an initial condition for the microscale reaction-diffusion model. Electrical propagation simulated from this initial condition is then compared to the isochrones predicted by the eikonal model. Results in 2-D and thin 3-D test-case geometries demonstrate the ability of this technique to initiate anatomical and functional reentries along prescribed pathways, thus facilitating the development of dedicated models aimed at better understanding clinical case reports.

  18. Kinetic Model of Biogas Yield Production from Vinasse at Various Initial pH: Comparison between Modified Gompertz Model and First Order Kinetic Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Budiyono

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Anaerobic treatment using anaerobic digestion can convert organic materials of vinasse into biogas. The purpose of this study was modeling kinetic of biogas production using modified Gompertz model and first order kinetic model at variation of initial pH. Substrates were consisted of two kinds of compositions, which were vinasse+rumen (VR and vinasse+rumen+urea (VRU. Initial pH in each substrate was 6, 7 and 8. Degradation process was done in 30 days using batch anaerobic digesters at room temperature. Both, at VR and VRU, initial pH of 7 generated the more total biogas than the others two (initial pH of 6 and 8. Biogas formed at substrate of VRU was more than that at substrate of VR. The best condition was substrate of VRU and initial pH of 7. At best condition, kinetic constants of biogas production model using modified Gompertz were ym (biogas production potential = 6.49 mL/g VS; U (maximum biogas production rate = 1.24 mL/g VS. day; &lambda (minimum time to produce biogas = 1.79 days. Whereas kinetic constants of biogas production model using first order kinetic were ym (biogas production potential = 6.78 mL/g VS; k (biogas production rate = 0.176 /day. The difference between the predicted and measured biogas yield (fitting error was higher with the first-order kinetic model (1.54-7.50% than with the modified Gompertz model (0.76-3.14%.

  19. Sensitivity of Global Modeling Initiative chemistry and transport model simulations of radon-222 and lead-210 to input meteorological data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. B. Considine

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available We have used the Global Modeling Initiative chemistry and transport model to simulate the radionuclides radon-222 and lead-210 using three different sets of input meteorological information: 1. Output from the Goddard Space Flight Center Global Modeling and Assimilation Office GEOS-STRAT assimilation; 2. Output from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies GISS II' general circulation model; and 3. Output from the National Center for Atmospheric Research MACCM3 general circulation model. We intercompare these simulations with observations to determine the variability resulting from the different meteorological data used to drive the model, and to assess the agreement of the simulations with observations at the surface and in the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere region. The observational datasets we use are primarily climatologies developed from multiple years of observations. In the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere region, climatological distributions of lead-210 were constructed from ~25 years of aircraft and balloon observations compiled into the US Environmental Measurements Laboratory RANDAB database. Taken as a whole, no simulation stands out as superior to the others. However, the simulation driven by the NCAR MACCM3 meteorological data compares better with lead-210 observations in the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere region. Comparisons of simulations made with and without convection show that the role played by convective transport and scavenging in the three simulations differs substantially. These differences may have implications for evaluation of the importance of very short-lived halogen-containing species on stratospheric halogen budgets.

  20. Investigating controls on debris-flow initiation and surge frequency at Chalk Cliffs, USA: initial results from monitoring and modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kean, J. W.; McCoy, S. W.; Tucker, G. E.; Staley, D. M.; Coe, J. A.

    2012-04-01

    Recent monitoring of a small (0.3 km2) bedrock-dominated catchment in central Colorado, USA, has revealed distinct differences in debris-flow surge dynamics relative to rainfall intensity. Moderate bursts of rainfall (15-40 mm/hr) typically trigger a set of coarse-grained surges with depths that can exceed 1.0 m. High-intensity bursts of rainfall (40-150 mm/hr), in contrast, often generate only a single moderate-amplitude coarse-grained surge (> 0.5 m depth), followed by several minutes of water-rich flow having comparable or greater peak depth. In both cases, debris flows are observed within minutes of rain bursts due to the rapid concentration of runoff from bedrock cliffs to channels loaded with sediment from dry ravel and rockfall. Video observations have shown that the runoff can initiate debris flows both at a steep (~40 degree) bedrock-colluvium interface, and in a lower gradient (~15 degree) section of channel. This latter style of initiation, which has only been observed at moderate rainfall intensity, involves the formation and failure of a highly porous sediment dam created by bedload transport. We speculate that this process may be responsible for the creation of the consistent surge patterns we observe with moderate intensity rainfall, and may explain the relative lack of granular surges with high-intensity rainfall. To investigate this possibility, we have developed a simple one-dimensional morphodynamic model of the formation and failure of sediment dams in an undulating bedrock channel filled with loose bed sediment. The model consists of a coupled surface-subsurface water flow model, which is used to drive bed-sediment topographic adjustments based on the mathematical divergence of the sediment transport rate. Under certain topographic and water-flow conditions, the shear stress in a section of the channel can fall below the critical shear stress, resulting in local deposition of sediment. Consistent with field observations, the modeled deposit

  1. Initial Sediment Transport Model of the Mining-Affected Aries River Basin, Romania

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friedel, Michael J.; Linard, Joshua I.

    2008-01-01

    The Romanian government is interested in understanding the effects of existing and future mining activities on long-term dispersal, storage, and remobilization of sediment-associated metals. An initial Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was prepared using available data to evaluate hypothetical failure of the Valea Sesei tailings dam at the Rosia Poieni mine in the Aries River basin. Using the available data, the initial Aries River Basin SWAT model could not be manually calibrated to accurately reproduce monthly streamflow values observed at the Turda gage station. The poor simulation of the monthly streamflow is attributed to spatially limited soil and precipitation data, limited constraint information due to spatially and temporally limited streamflow measurements, and in ability to obtain optimal parameter values when using a manual calibration process. Suggestions to improve the Aries River basin sediment transport model include accounting for heterogeneity in model input, a two-tier nonlinear calibration strategy, and analysis of uncertainty in predictions.

  2. Dependence on Initial Conditions in a Numerical Model of River Network Formation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poore, Geoffrey; Kieffer, Susan

    2009-03-01

    We investigated the effect of initial conditions on river network formation, using a simple model of erosional dynamics. Previous research suggests that river network scaling and geomorphic properties may be sensitive to initial conditions, but this has not been systematically studied. We used simulations of a stream power law, with initial conditions consisting of a flat or sloping surface combined with random fluctuations in elevation, and considered dependence of steady-state solutions on initial slope and randomness. The sinuosity exponent and the sinuosity are sensitive to these initial conditions, while the Hack exponent and hypsometry show little or no sensitivity. The results suggest that initial conditions deserve greater consideration in attempts to understand the emergence of scaling in river networks.

  3. Diabatic forcing and initialization with assimilation of cloud and rain water in a forecast model: Methodology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raymond, William H.; Olson, William S.; Callan, Geary

    1990-01-01

    The focus of this part of the investigation is to find one or more general modeling techniques that will help reduce the time taken by numerical forecast models to initiate or spin-up precipitation processes and enhance storm intensity. If the conventional data base could explain the atmospheric mesoscale flow in detail, then much of our problem would be eliminated. But the data base is primarily synoptic scale, requiring that a solution must be sought either in nonconventional data, in methods to initialize mesoscale circulations, or in ways of retaining between forecasts the model generated mesoscale dynamics and precipitation fields. All three methods are investigated. The initialization and assimilation of explicit cloud and rainwater quantities computed from conservation equations in a mesoscale regional model are examined. The physical processes include condensation, evaporation, autoconversion, accretion, and the removal of rainwater by fallout. The question of how to initialize the explicit liquid water calculations in numerical models and how to retain information about precipitation processes during the 4-D assimilation cycle are important issues that are addressed. The explicit cloud calculations were purposely kept simple so that different initialization techniques can be easily and economically tested. Precipitation spin-up processes associated with three different types of weather phenomena are examined. Our findings show that diabatic initialization, or diabatic initialization in combination with a new diabatic forcing procedure, work effectively to enhance the spin-up of precipitation in a mesoscale numerical weather prediction forecast. Also, the retention of cloud and rain water during the analysis phase of the 4-D data assimilation procedure is shown to be valuable. Without detailed observations, the vertical placement of the diabatic heating remains a critical problem.

  4. Modeling the soil water retention properties of same-textured soils with different initial void ratios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, Fang; Zhou, Wan-Huan; Yuen, Ka-Veng

    2016-11-01

    This study presents a method of predicting the soil water retention curve (SWRC) of a soil using a set of measured SWRC data from a soil with the same texture but different initial void ratio. The relationships of the volumetric water contents and the matric suctions between two samples with different initial void ratios are established. An adjustment parameter (β) is introduced to express the relationships between the matric suctions of two soil samples. The parameter β is a function of the initial void ratio, matric suction or volumetric water content. The function can take different forms, resulting in different predictive models. The optimal predictive models of β are determined for coarse-grained and fine-grained soils using the Bayesian method. The optimal models of β are validated by comparing the estimated matric suction and measured data. The comparisons show that the proposed method produces more accurate SWRCs than do other models for both coarse-grained and fine-grained soils. Furthermore, the influence of the model parameters of β on the predicted matric suction and SWRC is evaluated using Latin Hypercube sampling. An uncertainty analysis shows that the reliability of the predicted SWRC decreases with decreasing water content in fine-grained soils, and the initial void ratio has no apparent influence on the reliability of the predicted SWRCs in coarse-grained and fine-grained soils.

  5. On the Impact of Uncertainty in Initial Conditions of Hydrologic Models on Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Razavi, S.; Sheikholeslami, R.

    2015-12-01

    Determining the initial conditions for predictive models remains a challenge due to the uncertainty in measurement/identification of the state variables at the scale of interest. However, the characterization of uncertainty in initial conditions has arguably attracted less attention compared with other sources of uncertainty in hydrologic modelling (e.g, parameter, data, and structural uncertainty). This is perhaps because it is commonly believed that: (1) hydrologic systems (relatively rapidly) forget their initial conditions over time, and (2) other sources of uncertainty (e.g., in data) are dominant. This presentation revisits the basic principles of the theory of nonlinear dynamical systems in the context of hydrologic systems. Through simple example case studies, we demonstrate how and under what circumstances different hydrologic processes represent a range of attracting limit sets in their evolution trajectory in state space over time, including fixed points, limit cycles (periodic behaviour), torus (quasi-periodic behaviour), and strange attractors (chaotic behaviour). Furthermore, the propagation (or dissipation) of uncertainty in initial conditions of several hydrologic models through time, under any of the possible attracting limit sets, is investigated. This study highlights that there are definite situations in hydrology where uncertainty in initial conditions remains of significance. The results and insights gained have important implications for hydrologic modelling under non-stationarity in climate and environment.

  6. Initiation of an intraseasonal oscillation in an aquaplanet general circulation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maloney, Eric D.; Wolding, Brandon O.

    2015-12-01

    MJO initiation is studied in an aquaplanet general circulation model that has strong and highly regular MJO-like variability. About 80% of MJO events in the model are found to be successive events, immediately preceded by another strong MJO event. Hence, the dynamics of MJO initiation in the model are dominated by interactions with preceding events. Rossby gyres associated with the previous cycle of suppressed MJO convection to the east are shown to help initiate the next cycle of MJO convection in the western warm pool, consistent with the recent study of Zhao et al. (2013). Meridional and vertical moisture advection associated with the anomalous Rossby gyres help to moisten the MJO initiation region in advance of convective onset. An experiment is conducted in which circumnavigating Kelvin waves and their influence on the MJO initiation region are suppressed. While MJO activity in the model is just as regular with suppression of circumnavigation, MJO amplitude is reduced relative to the control simulation, especially in the western part of the warm pool. Possible physical mechanisms responsible for this change in MJO amplitude are discussed, including the role of low-level moisture convergence anomalies induced by circumnavigating Kelvin waves, and interactions with mean state changes.

  7. An Initial Non-Equilibrium Porous-Media Model for CFD Simulation of Stirling Regenerators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tew, Roy C.; Simon, Terry; Gedeon, David; Ibrahim, Mounir; Rong, Wei

    2006-01-01

    The objective of this paper is to define empirical parameters for an initial thermal non-equilibrium porous-media model for use in Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) codes for simulation of Stirling regenerators. The two codes currently used at Glenn Research Center for Stirling modeling are Fluent and CFD-ACE. The codes porous-media models are equilibrium models, which assume solid matrix and fluid are in thermal equilibrium. This is believed to be a poor assumption for Stirling regenerators; Stirling 1-D regenerator models, used in Stirling design, use non-equilibrium regenerator models and suggest regenerator matrix and gas average temperatures can differ by several degrees at a given axial location and time during the cycle. Experimentally based information was used to define: hydrodynamic dispersion, permeability, inertial coefficient, fluid effective thermal conductivity, and fluid-solid heat transfer coefficient. Solid effective thermal conductivity was also estimated. Determination of model parameters was based on planned use in a CFD model of Infinia's Stirling Technology Demonstration Converter (TDC), which uses a random-fiber regenerator matrix. Emphasis is on use of available data to define empirical parameters needed in a thermal non-equilibrium porous media model for Stirling regenerator simulation. Such a model has not yet been implemented by the authors or their associates.

  8. Assessment of Sea Surface Temperature and Sea Ice Initial Conditions on Coupled Model Forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Intrieri, J. M.; Solomon, A.; Persson, O. P. G.; Capotondi, A.; LaFontaine, F.; Jedlovec, G.

    2016-12-01

    We present weather-scale (0-10 day) sea ice forecast validation and skill results from an experimental coupled ice-ocean-atmosphere model during the fall freeze-up periods for 2015 and 2016. The model is a mesoscale, coupled atmosphere-ice-ocean mixed-layer model, termed RASM-ESRL, that was developed from the larger-scale Regional Arctic System Model (RASM) architecture. The atmospheric component of RASM-ESRL consists of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, the sea-ice component is the Los Alamos CICE model, and the ocean model is POP. Experimental 5-day forecasts were run daily with RASM-ESRL from July through mid-November in 2015 and 2016. Our project focuses on how the modeled sea ice evolution compares to observed physical processes including atmospheric forcing of sea ice movement, melt, and freeze-up through energy fluxes. Model hindcast output is validated against buoy observations, satellite measurements, and concurrent in situ flux observations made from the R/V Sikuliaq in the fall of 2015. Model skill in predicting atmospheric state variables, wind and boundary layer structures, synoptic features, cloud microphysical and ocean properties will be discussed. We will show results of using different initializations of ocean sea surface temperature and sea ice extent and the impacts on sea ice edge prediction.

  9. Effects of video modeling on social initiations by children with autism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nikopoulos, Christos K; Keenan, Michael

    2004-01-01

    We examined the effects of a video modeling intervention on social initiation and play behaviors with 3 children with autism using a multiple baseline across subjects design. Each child watched a videotape showing a typically developing peer, and the experimenter engaged in a simple social interactive play using one toy. For all children, social initiation and reciprocal play skills were enhanced, and these effects were maintained at 1- and 3-month follow-up periods.

  10. Effects of video modeling on social initiations by children with autism

    OpenAIRE

    Nikopoulos, C K; Keenan, M

    2004-01-01

    We examined the effects of a video modeling intervention on social initiation and play behaviors with 3 children with autism using a multiple baseline across subjects design. Each child watched a videotape showing a typically developing peer, and the experimenter engaged in a simple social interactive play using one toy. For all children, social initiation and reciprocal play skills were enhanced, and these effects were maintained at 1- and 3-month follow-up periods.

  11. A model for shear-band formation and high-explosive initiation in a hydrodynamics code

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kerrisk, J.F.

    1996-03-01

    This report describes work in progress to develop a shear band model for MESA-2D. The object of this work is (1) to predict the formation of shear bands and their temperature in high explosive (HE) during a MESA-2D calculation, (2) to then assess whether the HE would initiate, and (3) to allow a detonation wave initiated from a shear band to propagate. This requires developing a model that uses average cell data to estimate the size and temperature of narrow region (generally much narrower than the cell size) that is undergoing shear within the cell. The shear band temperature (rather than the average cell temperature) can be used to calculate the flow stress of the material in the cell or to calculate heat generation from reactive materials. Modifications have been made to MESA-2D to calculate shear band size and temperature, and to initiate HE detonation when conditions warrant. Two models have been used for shear-band size and temperature calculation, one based on an independent estimate of the shear band width and a second based on the temperature distribution around the shear band. Both models have been tested for calculations in which shear band formation occurs in steel. A comparison of the measured and calculated local temperature rise in a shear band has been made. A model for estimating the time to initiation of the HE based on the type of HE and the temperature distribution in a shear band has also been added to MESA-2D. Calculations of conditions needed to initiate HE in projectile-impact tests have been done and compared with experimental data. Further work is d to test the model.

  12. Hydraulic fracturing model featuring initiation beyond the wellbore wall for directional well in coal bed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yuwei; Jia, Dan; Wang, Meng; Liu, Jia; Fu, Chunkai; Yang, Xinliang; Ai, Chi

    2016-08-01

    In developing internal fracture systems in coal beds, the initiation mechanism differs greatly from that of conventional ones and initiations may be produced beyond the wellbore wall. This paper describes the features of the internal structure of coal beds and RFPA2D simulation is used to attest the possible occurrence of initiation beyond the wellbore wall in coal bed hydraulic fracturing. Using the theory of elasticity and fracture mechanics, we analyse the stress distribution in the vicinal coal rock. Then by taking into consideration the effects of the spatial relationship between coal bed cleats and the wellbore, we establish a model for calculating both tensile and shear initiation pressure that occur along cleats beyond the wellbore wall. The simulation in this paper indicates that for shear initiations that happen along coal cleats, the pressure required to initiate fracture for cleats beyond the wellbore wall is evidently lower than that on the wellbore wall, thus it is easier to initiate shear fractures for cleats beyond the wellbore wall. For tensile failure, the pressure required to initiate tensile fracture for cleats beyond the wellbore wall is obviously higher than that for cleats at the wellbore wall, thus it is easier to initiate tensile fractures for cleats at the wellbore wall. On the one hand, this paper has proved the possible occurrence of initiations beyond the wellbore wall and has changed the current assumption that hydraulic fractures can only occur at the wellbore wall. On the other hand, the established theoretical model provides a new approach to calculating the initiation pressure in hydraulic fracturing.

  13. Towards a Mathematical Formalism for Semi-stochastic Cell-Level Computational Modeling of Tumor Initiation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vermolen, F J; Meijden, R P van der; Es, M van; Gefen, A; Weihs, D

    2015-07-01

    A phenomenological model is formulated to model the early stages of tumor formation. The model is based on a cell-based formalism, where each cell is represented as a circle or sphere in two-and three dimensional simulations, respectively. The model takes into account constituent cells, such as epithelial cells, tumor cells, and T-cells that chase the tumor cells and engulf them. Fundamental biological processes such as random walk, haptotaxis/chemotaxis, contact mechanics, cell proliferation and death, as well as secretion of chemokines are taken into account. The developed formalism is based on the representation of partial differential equations in terms of fundamental solutions, as well as on stochastic processes and stochastic differential equations. We also take into account the likelihood of seeding of tumors. The model shows the initiation of tumors and allows to study a quantification of the impact of various subprocesses and possibly even of various treatments.

  14. The influence of artificial-thunderstorm cell polarity on discharge initiation by model hydrometeor arrays

    Science.gov (United States)

    Temnikov, A. G.; Chernenskii, L. L.; Orlov, A. V.; Lysov, N. Yu.; Belova, O. S.; Kalugina, I. E.; Gerastenok, T. K.; Zhuravkova, D. S.

    2017-02-01

    The initiation of discharge by model hydrometeors between an artificial-thunderstorm cell (aerosol cloud) of negative or positive polarity and ground has been experimentally studied. It is established for the first time that the conditions of cloud-ground spark discharge initiation by hydrometeors, as well as the characteristics of discharge significantly depend on the polarity of charged cloud. The effect of hydrometeor arrays can be manifested by the cloud-ground lightning initiated in a thundercloud and used for developing scientific principles of artificial lightning discharge.

  15. THE APPLICATION OF TIDAL SIGNAL EXCLUSION SCHEME FROM INITIALIZATION IN A GENERAL CIRCULATION MODEL

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    杨学胜; 王军; 陈谊

    2004-01-01

    In this paper, some corrections was made to the assumption that the forcing is quasi-static, which is the basis of the nonlinear diabatic initialization scheme adopted by a global model T106L19. Thus the tidal signal is expressed and excluded from the initialization scheme. It shows that the new scheme captures the semi-diurnal pressure variation and is much closer to the uninitialized field. Compared with the standard initialization scheme, both the anomaly correlation coefficients and RMS of 500 hPa geopotential height simulated under the new scheme have improved significantly.

  16. Initial Steps Toward a Hydrologic "Watershed" Model for the Ablation Zone of the Greenland Ice Sheet

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooper, M. G.; Smith, L. C.; Rennermalm, A. K.; Pitcher, L. H.; Overstreet, B. T.; Chu, V. W.; Ryan, J.; Yang, K.

    2015-12-01

    Surface meltwater production on the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) is a well-documented phenomenon but we lack understanding of the physical mechanisms that control the production, transport, and fate of the meltwater. To address this, we present initial steps toward the development of a novel hydrologic model for supraglacial streamflow on the GrIS. Ice ablation and surface meteorology were measured during a 6-day field campaign in a 112 km2 ablation zone of southwest Greenland. We modeled ablation using SnowModel, an energy balance snow- and ice-ablation model. The required model inputs included standard surface meteorology and a digital elevation model (DEM), and the model outputs include all components of the energy balance and surface meltwater production for each grid cell in the ice-sheet watershed. Our next steps toward developing a complete hydrologic model for supraglacial streamflow in the ablation zone of the GrIS include the application of the meltwater-routing model HydroFlow to compare with in-situ measurements of supraglacial river discharge.

  17. Evaluation of near-tropopause ozone distributions in the Global Modeling Initiative combined stratosphere/troposphere model with ozonesonde data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. B. Considine

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available The NASA Global Modeling Initiative has developed a combined stratosphere/troposphere chemistry and transport model which fully represents the processes governing atmospheric composition near the tropopause. We evaluate model ozone distributions near the tropopause, using two high vertical resolution monthly mean ozone profile climatologies constructed with ozonesonde data, one by averaging on pressure levels and the other relative to the thermal tropopause. Model ozone is high-biased at the SH tropical and NH midlatitude tropopause by ~45% in a 4° latitude × 5° longitude model simulation. Increasing the resolution to 2°×2.5° increases the NH tropopause high bias to ~60%, but decreases the tropical tropopause bias to ~30%, an effect of a better-resolved residual circulation. The tropopause ozone biases appear not to be due to an overly vigorous residual circulation or excessive stratosphere/troposphere exchange, but are more likely due to insufficient vertical resolution or excessive vertical diffusion near the tropopause. In the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere, model/measurement intercomparisons are strongly affected by the averaging technique. NH and tropical mean model lower stratospheric biases are <20%. In the upper troposphere, the 2°×2.5° simulation exhibits mean high biases of ~20% and~35% during April in the tropics and NH midlatitudes, respectively, compared to the pressure-averaged climatology. However, relative-to-tropopause averaging produces upper troposphere high biases of ~30% and 70% in the tropics and NH midlatitudes. This is because relative-to-tropopause averaging better preserves large cross-tropopause O3 gradients, which are seen in the daily sonde data, but not in daily model profiles. The relative annual cycle of ozone near the tropopause is reproduced very well in the model Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes. In the tropics, the model amplitude of the near-tropopause annual cycle is weak

  18. Thresholds and initial growth rates in a model of parasitic infection

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Barbour, A.D.; Heesterbeek, J.A.P.; Luchsinger, C.

    1996-01-01

    We investigate the initial behavior of a deterministic model of parasitic infection, appropriate to transmission between homogeneously mixing hosts, where the amount of infection which is transferred from one host to another at a single contact depends on the number of parasites in the infecting hos

  19. The role of initial values in nonstationary fractional time series models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Johansen, Søren; Nielsen, Morten Ørregaard

    We consider the nonstationary fractional model $\\Delta^{d}X_{t}=\\varepsilon _{t}$ with $\\varepsilon_{t}$ i.i.d.$(0,\\sigma^{2})$ and $d>1/2$. We derive an analytical expression for the main term of the asymptotic bias of the maximum likelihood estimator of $d$ conditional on initial values, and we...

  20. Review of dWindDS Model Initial Results; NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baring-Gould, Ian; Gleason, Michael; Preus, Robert; Sigrin, Ben

    2015-06-17

    The dWindDS model analyses the market diffusion of distributed wind generation for behind the meter applications. It is consumer decision based and uses a variety of data sets including a high resolution wind data set. It projects market development through 2050 based on input on specified by the user. This presentation covers some initial runs with draft base case assumptions.

  1. Educational Transformation in Upper-Division Physics: The Science Education Initiative Model, Outcomes, and Lessons Learned

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chasteen, Stephanie V.; Wilcox, Bethany; Caballero, Marcos D.; Perkins, Katherine K.; Pollock, Steven J.; Wieman, Carl E.

    2015-01-01

    In response to the need for a scalable, institutionally supported model of educational change, the Science Education Initiative (SEI) was created as an experiment in transforming course materials and faculty practices at two institutions--University of Colorado Boulder (CU) and University of British Columbia. We find that this departmentally…

  2. A no hair theorem and the problem of initial conditions. [in cosmological model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jensen, Lars Gerhard; Stein-Schabes, Jaime A.

    1987-01-01

    It is shown that under very general conditions, any inhomogeneous cosmological model with a positive cosmological constant that can be described in a synchronous reference system will tend asymptotically in time towards the de Sitter solution. This renders the problem of initial conditions less severe.

  3. Initiation of the Detonation in the Gravitationally Confined Detonation Model of Type Ia Supernovae

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seitenzahl, Ivo R.; Meakin, Casey A.; Lamb, Don Q.; Truran, James W.

    2009-07-01

    We study the initiation of the detonation in the gravitationally confined detonation (GCD) model of Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia). In this model, ignition occurs at one or several off-center points, resulting in a burning bubble of hot ash that rises rapidly, breaks through the surface of the star, and collides at a point on the stellar surface opposite the breakout, producing a high-velocity inwardly directed flow. Initiation of the detonation occurs spontaneously in a region where the length scale of the temperature gradient extending from the flow (in which carbon burning is already occurring) into unburned fuel is commensurate to the range of critical length scales which have been derived from one-dimensional simulations that resolve the initiation of a detonation. By increasing the maximum resolution in a truncated cone that encompasses this region, beginning somewhat before initiation of the detonation occurs, we successfully simulate in situ the first gradient-initiated detonation in a whole-star simulation. The detonation emerges when a compression wave overruns a pocket of fuel situated in a Kelvin-Helmholtz cusp at the leading edge of the inwardly directed jet of burning carbon. The compression wave preconditions the temperature in the fuel in such a way that the Zel'dovich gradient mechanism can operate and a detonation ensues. We explore the dependence of the length scale of the temperature gradient on spatial resolution and discuss the implications for the robustness of this detonation mechanism. We find that the time and the location at which initiation of the detonation occurs varies with resolution. In particular, initiation of a detonation had not yet occurred in our highest resolution simulation by the time we ended the simulation because of the computational demand it required. However, it may detonate later. We suggest that the turbulent shear layer surrounding the inwardly directed jet provides the most favorable physical conditions, and

  4. Assessing Extreme Models of the Stober Synthesis Using Transients under a Range of Initial Composition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee; Look; Harris; McCormick

    1997-10-01

    29Si-NMR, conductimetry, and photon correlation spectroscopy are used to monitor the temporal profile of intermediate concentrations in Stober synthesis (i.e., ammonia-catalyzed hydrolysis of tetraethoxysilane in a batch reactor). Extreme models of the process are assessed by examining the effect of initial composition on these transients (over a wider range of composition than attempted previously). The trends with initial composition suggest that the nucleation is rate-limited by the hydrolysis of the singly hydrolyzed monomer, the product of which probably phase separates. Moreover, the trends are consistent with the aggregation model discussed by G. H. Bogush and C. F. Zukoski (J. Colloid Interface Sci. 142, 1, 19 (1991) and by M. T. Harris (Ph.D. dissertation, Univ. of Tennessee, 1992). The trends are not consistent with a growth model without aggregation. Copyright 1997 Academic Press. Copyright 1997Academic Press

  5. Numerical modeling of the initial fluctuation condensation stage with charge drops

    Science.gov (United States)

    Averina, T. A.; Zmievskaya, G. I.

    2016-11-01

    This paper deals with a mathematical model of the phase transition of the first kind at the initial stage of forming drops in a liquid or in melted state in a volume of steam with a fixed charge on drops. The model of the process is represented by superposition of random diffusion and jump stochastic processes. The algorithms for solving stochastic differential equations (SDEs) of the model of processes, which form the cluster size, allow one to calculate a distribution function of drops according to their size. The kinetic approach makes possible evaluate the role of the Rayleigh capillary instability at the initial condensation stage and to employ the analysis of electrodispersion mechanisms in the production of metal and semiconductor powders.

  6. A Novel Kinetic Model of Liquid Nitrogen's Explosive Boiling at the Initial Stage

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    HUAI Xiu-Lan; DONG Zhao-Yi; LI Zhi-Gang; YIN Tie-Nan; ZOU Yu

    2007-01-01

    The liquid nitrogen's explosive boiling characteristics under transient high heat flux have attracted increasing attentions of researchers over the world due to its wide applications. Although some experiments have been performed, the process and the characteristics at the initial stage, especially within 1μs, have not been described reasonably yet. Based on the related experiments and theoretical analysis, a novel kinetic model combined with quasi-fluid idea is presented to analyse the characteristics of liquid nitrogen's explosive boiling at the initial stage. The results indicate that the model can appropriately describe the liquid nitrogen's explosive boiling. The behaviour and the heat transfer characteristics of a single bubble are very different from those of the bubble cluster, thus the behaviour of individual bubbles could not be directly applied to describe the explosive boiling process at the initial stage.

  7. On the Modeling of Error Functions as High Dimensional Landscapes for Weight Initialization in Learning Networks

    CERN Document Server

    Julius,; T., Sumana; Adityakrishna, C S

    2016-01-01

    Next generation deep neural networks for classification hosted on embedded platforms will rely on fast, efficient, and accurate learning algorithms. Initialization of weights in learning networks has a great impact on the classification accuracy. In this paper we focus on deriving good initial weights by modeling the error function of a deep neural network as a high-dimensional landscape. We observe that due to the inherent complexity in its algebraic structure, such an error function may conform to general results of the statistics of large systems. To this end we apply some results from Random Matrix Theory to analyse these functions. We model the error function in terms of a Hamiltonian in N-dimensions and derive some theoretical results about its general behavior. These results are further used to make better initial guesses of weights for the learning algorithm.

  8. Modelling stellar jets with magnetospheres using as initial states analytical MHD solutions

    CERN Document Server

    Todorov, P; Cayatte, V; Sauty, C; Lima, J J G; Tsinganos, K

    2016-01-01

    In this paper we focus on the construction of stellar outflow models emerging from a polar coronal hole-type region surrounded by a magnetosphere in the equatorial regions during phases of quiescent accretion. The models are based on initial analytical solutions. We adopt a meridionally self-similar solution of the time-independent and axisymmetric MHD equations which describes effectively a jet originating from the corona of a star. We modify appropriately this solution in order to incorporate a physically consistent stellar magnetosphere. We find that the closed fieldline region may exhibit different behaviour depending on the associated boundary conditions and the distribution of the heat flux. However, the stellar jet in all final equilibrium states is very similar to the analytical one prescribed in the initial conditions. When the initial net heat flux is maintained, the magnetosphere takes the form of a dynamical helmet streamer with a quasi steady state slow magnetospheric wind. With no heat flux, a s...

  9. A dynamic stochastic model for DNA replication initiation in early embryos.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arach Goldar

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Eukaryotic cells seem unable to monitor replication completion during normal S phase, yet must ensure a reliable replication completion time. This is an acute problem in early Xenopus embryos since DNA replication origins are located and activated stochastically, leading to the random completion problem. DNA combing, kinetic modelling and other studies using Xenopus egg extracts have suggested that potential origins are much more abundant than actual initiation events and that the time-dependent rate of initiation, I(t, markedly increases through S phase to ensure the rapid completion of unreplicated gaps and a narrow distribution of completion times. However, the molecular mechanism that underlies this increase has remained obscure. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Using both previous and novel DNA combing data we have confirmed that I(t increases through S phase but have also established that it progressively decreases before the end of S phase. To explore plausible biochemical scenarios that might explain these features, we have performed comparisons between numerical simulations and DNA combing data. Several simple models were tested: i recycling of a limiting replication fork component from completed replicons; ii time-dependent increase in origin efficiency; iii time-dependent increase in availability of an initially limiting factor, e.g. by nuclear import. None of these potential mechanisms could on its own account for the data. We propose a model that combines time-dependent changes in availability of a replication factor and a fork-density dependent affinity of this factor for potential origins. This novel model quantitatively and robustly accounted for the observed changes in initiation rate and fork density. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: This work provides a refined temporal profile of replication initiation rates and a robust, dynamic model that quantitatively explains replication origin usage during early embryonic S phase

  10. A model analysis of mechanisms for radial microtubular patterns at root hair initiation sites

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pawel Krupinski

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Plant cells have two main modes of growth generating anisotropic structures. Diffuse growth where whole cell walls extend in specific directions, guided by anisotropically positioned cellulose fibers, and tip growth, with inhomogeneous addition of new cell wall material at the tip of the structure. Cells are known to regulate these processes via molecular signals and the cytoskeleton. Mechanical stress has been proposed to provide an input to the positioning of the cellulose fibers via cortical microtubules in diffuse growth. In particular, a stress feedback model predicts a circumferential pattern of fibers surrounding apical tissues and growing primordia, guided by the anisotropic curvature in such tissues. In contrast, during the initiation of tip growing root hairs, a star-like radial pattern has recently been observed. Here, we use detailed finite element models to analyze how a change in mechanical properties at the root hair initiation site can lead to star-like stress patterns in order to understand whether a stress-based feedback model can also explain the microtubule patterns seen during root hair initiation. We show that two independent mechanisms, individually or combined, can be sufficient to generate radial patterns. In the first, new material is added locally at the position of the root hair. In the second, increased tension in the initiation area provides a mechanism. Finally, we describe how a molecular model of Rho-of-plant (ROP GTPases activation driven by auxin can position a patch of activated ROP protein basally along a 2D root epidermal cell plasma membrane, paving the way for models where mechanical and molecular mechanisms cooperate in the initial placement and outgrowth of root hairs.

  11. Toward verifying fossil fuel CO2 emissions with the CMAQ model: motivation, model description and initial simulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Zhen; Bambha, Ray P; Pinto, Joseph P; Zeng, Tao; Boylan, Jim; Huang, Maoyi; Lei, Huimin; Zhao, Chun; Liu, Shishi; Mao, Jiafu; Schwalm, Christopher R; Shi, Xiaoying; Wei, Yaxing; Michelsen, Hope A

    2014-04-01

    Motivated by the question of whether and how a state-of-the-art regional chemical transport model (CTM) can facilitate characterization of CO2 spatiotemporal variability and verify CO2 fossil-fuel emissions, we for the first time applied the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model to simulate CO2. This paper presents methods, input data, and initial results for CO2 simulation using CMAQ over the contiguous United States in October 2007. Modeling experiments have been performed to understand the roles of fossil-fuel emissions, biosphere-atmosphere exchange, and meteorology in regulating the spatial distribution of CO2 near the surface over the contiguous United States. Three sets of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) fluxes were used as input to assess the impact of uncertainty of NEE on CO2 concentrations simulated by CMAQ. Observational data from six tall tower sites across the country were used to evaluate model performance. In particular, at the Boulder Atmospheric Observatory (BAO), a tall tower site that receives urban emissions from Denver CO, the CMAQ model using hourly varying, high-resolution CO2 fossil-fuel emissions from the Vulcan inventory and Carbon Tracker optimized NEE reproduced the observed diurnal profile of CO2 reasonably well but with a low bias in the early morning. The spatial distribution of CO2 was found to correlate with NO(x), SO2, and CO, because of their similar fossil-fuel emission sources and common transport processes. These initial results from CMAQ demonstrate the potential of using a regional CTM to help interpret CO2 observations and understand CO2 variability in space and time. The ability to simulate a full suite of air pollutants in CMAQ will also facilitate investigations of their use as tracers for CO2 source attribution. This work serves as a proof of concept and the foundation for more comprehensive examinations of CO2 spatiotemporal variability and various uncertainties in the future. Atmospheric CO2 has long been modeled

  12. Quantifying Uncertainty in Model Predictions for the Pliocene (Plio-QUMP): Initial results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pope, J.O.; Collins, M.; Haywood, A.M.; Dowsett, H.J.; Hunter, S.J.; Lunt, D.J.; Pickering, S.J.; Pound, M.J.

    2011-01-01

    Examination of the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP; ~. 3.3 to 3.0. Ma BP) provides an excellent opportunity to test the ability of climate models to reproduce warm climate states, thereby assessing our confidence in model predictions. To do this it is necessary to relate the uncertainty in model simulations of mPWP climate to uncertainties in projections of future climate change. The uncertainties introduced by the model can be estimated through the use of a Perturbed Physics Ensemble (PPE). Developing on the UK Met Office Quantifying Uncertainty in Model Predictions (QUMP) Project, this paper presents the results from an initial investigation using the end members of a PPE in a fully coupled atmosphere-ocean model (HadCM3) running with appropriate mPWP boundary conditions. Prior work has shown that the unperturbed version of HadCM3 may underestimate mPWP sea surface temperatures at higher latitudes. Initial results indicate that neither the low sensitivity nor the high sensitivity simulations produce unequivocally improved mPWP climatology relative to the standard. Whilst the high sensitivity simulation was able to reconcile up to 6 ??C of the data/model mismatch in sea surface temperatures in the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere (relative to the standard simulation), it did not produce a better prediction of global vegetation than the standard simulation. Overall the low sensitivity simulation was degraded compared to the standard and high sensitivity simulations in all aspects of the data/model comparison. The results have shown that a PPE has the potential to explore weaknesses in mPWP modelling simulations which have been identified by geological proxies, but that a 'best fit' simulation will more likely come from a full ensemble in which simulations that contain the strengths of the two end member simulations shown here are combined. ?? 2011 Elsevier B.V.

  13. Sediment distribution modeling for evaluating the impact of initial structure on catchment hydrological behaviour

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maurer, T. J.; Gerke, H. H.; Hinz, C.

    2015-12-01

    Structural heterogeneity, namely the spatial distribution of soils and sediments (represented by mineral particles), characterizes catchment hydrological behavior. In natural catchments, local geology and the specific geomorphic processes determine the characteristics and spatial distribution of structures. In constructed catchments, structural features are determined primarily by the construction processes and the geological origin of the parent material. Objectives are scenarios of 3D catchment structures in form of complete 3D description of soil hydraulic properties generated from the knowledge of the formation processes. The constructed hydrological catchment 'Hühnerwasser' (Lower Lusatia, Brandenburg, Germany) was used for the calibration and validation of model results due to its well-known conditions. For the modeling of structural features, a structure generator was used to model i) quasi-deterministic sediment distributions using input data from a geological model of the parent material excavation site; ii) sediment distributions that are conditioned to measurement data from soil sampling; and iii) stochastic component sediment distributions. All three approaches allow a randomization within definable limits. Furthermore, the spoil cone / spoil ridge orientation, internal layering, surface compaction and internal spoil cone compaction were modified. These generated structural models were incorporated in a gridded 3D volume model constructed with the GOCAD software. The impact of structure variation was assessed by hydrological modeling with HYDRUS 2D/3D software. 3D distributions of soil hydraulic properties were estimated based on generated sediment properties using adapted pedotransfer functions. Results were compared with hydrological monitoring data. The impact of structural feature variation on hydrological behavior was analyzed by comparing different simulation scenarios. The established initial sediment distributions provide a basis for the

  14. Good initialization model with constrained body structure for scene text recognition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Anna; Wang, Guoyou; Dong, Yangbo

    2016-09-01

    Scene text recognition has gained significant attention in the computer vision community. Character detection and recognition are the promise of text recognition and affect the overall performance to a large extent. We proposed a good initialization model for scene character recognition from cropped text regions. We use constrained character's body structures with deformable part-based models to detect and recognize characters in various backgrounds. The character's body structures are achieved by an unsupervised discriminative clustering approach followed by a statistical model and a self-build minimum spanning tree model. Our method utilizes part appearance and location information, and combines character detection and recognition in cropped text region together. The evaluation results on the benchmark datasets demonstrate that our proposed scheme outperforms the state-of-the-art methods both on scene character recognition and word recognition aspects.

  15. A technique for generating consistent ice sheet initial conditions for coupled ice-sheet/climate models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. G. Fyke

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available A new technique for generating ice sheet preindustrial 1850 initial conditions for coupled ice-sheet/climate models is developed and demonstrated over the Greenland Ice Sheet using the Community Earth System Model (CESM. Paleoclimate end-member simulations and ice core data are used to derive continuous surface mass balance fields which are used to force a long transient ice sheet model simulation. The procedure accounts for the evolution of climate through the last glacial period and converges to a simulated preindustrial 1850 ice sheet that is geometrically and thermodynamically consistent with the 1850 preindustrial simulated CESM state, yet contains a transient memory of past climate that compares well to observations and independent model studies. This allows future coupled ice-sheet/climate projections of climate change that include ice sheets to integrate the effect of past climate conditions on the state of the Greenland Ice Sheet, while maintaining system-wide continuity between past and future climate simulations.

  16. Effect of Initial Hydraulic Conditions on Capillary Rise in a Porous Medium: Pore-Network Modeling

    KAUST Repository

    Joekar-Niasar, V.

    2012-01-01

    The dynamics of capillary rise in a porous medium have been mostly studied in initially dry systems. As initial saturation and initial hydraulic conditions in many natural and industrial porous media can be variable, it is important to investigate the influence of initial conditions on the dynamics of the process. In this study, using dynamic pore-network modeling, we simulated capillary rise in a porous medium for different initial saturations (and consequently initial capillary pressures). Furthermore, the effect of hydraulic connectivity of the wetting phase in corners on the height and velocity of the wetting front was studied. Our simulation results show that there is a trade-off between capillary forces and trapping due to snap-off, which leads to a nonlinear dependence of wetting front velocity on initial saturation at the pore scale. This analysis may provide a possible answer to the experimental observations in the literature showing a non-monotonic dependency between initial saturation and the macroscopic front velocity. © Soil Science Society of America.

  17. Analysis of initial cell spreading using mechanistic contact formulations for a deformable cell model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tim Odenthal

    Full Text Available Adhesion governs to a large extent the mechanical interaction between a cell and its microenvironment. As initial cell spreading is purely adhesion driven, understanding this phenomenon leads to profound insight in both cell adhesion and cell-substrate interaction. It has been found that across a wide variety of cell types, initial spreading behavior universally follows the same power laws. The simplest cell type providing this scaling of the radius of the spreading area with time are modified red blood cells (RBCs, whose elastic responses are well characterized. Using a mechanistic description of the contact interaction between a cell and its substrate in combination with a deformable RBC model, we are now able to investigate in detail the mechanisms behind this universal power law. The presented model suggests that the initial slope of the spreading curve with time results from a purely geometrical effect facilitated mainly by dissipation upon contact. Later on, the spreading rate decreases due to increasing tension and dissipation in the cell's cortex as the cell spreads more and more. To reproduce this observed initial spreading, no irreversible deformations are required. Since the model created in this effort is extensible to more complex cell types and can cope with arbitrarily shaped, smooth mechanical microenvironments of the cells, it can be useful for a wide range of investigations where forces at the cell boundary play a decisive role.

  18. Deduction of Initial Strategy Distributions of Agents in Mix-game Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gou, Chengling

    2006-03-01

    This paper reports the effort of deducing the initial strategy distributions of agents in mix-game model which is used to predict a real financial time series generated from a target financial market. Using mix-game to predict Shanghai Index, we find the time series of prediction accurate rates is sensitive to the initial strategy distributions of agents in group 2 who play minority game, but less sensitive to the initial strategy distributions of agents in group 1 who play majority game. And agents in group 2 tend to cluster in full strategy space (FSS) if the real financial time series has obvious tendency (upward or downward), otherwise they tend to scatter in FSS. We also find that the initial strategy distributions and the number of agents in group 1 influence the level of prediction accurate rates. Finally, this paper gives suggestion about further research.

  19. Deduction of Initial Strategy Distributions of Agents in Mix-game Model

    CERN Document Server

    Gou, C

    2006-01-01

    This paper reports the effort of deducing the initial strategy distributions of agents in mix-game model which is used to predict a real financial time series generated from a target financial market. Using mix-game to predict Shanghai Index, we find the time series of prediction accurate rates is sensitive to the initial strategy distributions of agents in group 2 who play minority game, but less sensitive to the initial strategy distributions of agents in group 1 who play majority game. And agents in group 2 tend to cluster in full strategy space (FSS) if the real financial time series has obvious tendency (upward or downward), otherwise they tend to scatter in FSS. We also find that the initial strategy distributions and the number of agents in group 1 influence the level of prediction accurate rates. Finally, this paper gives suggestion about further research.

  20. Effects of initial solute distribution on contaminant availability, desorption modeling, and subsurface remediation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haws, Nathan W; Ball, William P; Bouwer, Edward J

    2007-01-01

    Low permeability regions in which solute movement is governed by diffusion reduce the availability of pollutants for remediation and can function as long-term sources of groundwater contamination. The inherent difficulty in understanding mass transfer from these regions of sequestered contamination is further complicated by unknown solute distributions within the low-permeability regions (sequestering regions). When models are calibrated to reproduce temporal histories of solute release from a sequestering region (desorption), the fitted parameter values are used to infer the physical or chemical characteristics of the media; however, the calibrated parameters also reflect the case-specific initial conditions (i.e., the solute distribution within the sequestering region domain at the onset of desorption). This phenomenon is demonstrated using model simulations of solute diffusion from hypothetical solids with characteristics similar to those of the well studied Borden, Ontario aquifer system. Solute release from the solids is simulated using a batch diffusion model under different initial solute distributions within the solids. The results of these model simulations are used to calibrate parameters of a multiple first-order rate desorption model (MRM) to illustrate how the fitted MRM parameters increase or decrease depending on the initial "aging" of the solids. Further numerical simulations are conducted for a one-dimensional flow system under steady-state and variable-rate hydraulic flushing. These simulations show that although aging reduces desorptive mass flux during early stages of flushing, aged sites have greater desorptive mass flux (greater solute availability) than "freshly" contaminated media during the later stages of remediation. Overall, the results demonstrate why the physicochemical meaning of observed desorption rates cannot be accurately deduced without first understanding the initial solute distribution within the media.

  1. Model Comparison in Subsurface Science: The DECOVALEX and Sim-SEQ Initiatives (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Birkholzer, J. T.; Mukhopadhyay, S.; Rutqvist, J.; Tsang, C.

    2013-12-01

    , the DECOVALEX project has played a major role in improving our understanding of coupled THM processes in fractured rock and buffer/backfill materials, a subject of importance to performance assessment of a radioactive waste geologic repository. The second example is the Sim-SEQ project, a relatively recent model comparison initiative addressing multi-phase processes relevant in geologic carbon sequestration. Like DECOVALEX, Sim-SEQ is not about benchmarking, but rather about evaluating model building efforts in a broad and comprehensive sense. In Sim-SEQ, sixteen international modeling teams are building their own models for a specific carbon sequestration site referred to as the Sim-SEQ Study site (the S-3 site). The S-3 site is patterned after the ongoing SECARB Phase III Early Test site in southwestern Mississippi, where CO2 is injected into a fluvial sandstone unit with high vertical and lateral heterogeneity. The complex geology of the S-3 site, its location in the water leg of a CO2-EOR field with a strong water drive, and the presence of methane in the reservoir brine make this a challenging task, requiring the modelers to use their best judgment in making a large number of choices about how to model various processes and properties of the system.

  2. Modeling the shock initiation of PBX 9501 in ALE3D

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mace, Jonathan [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Mas, Eric M [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Leininger, Lara [HINMAN CONSULTING; Springer, H Keo [ONE BUSH STREET

    2008-01-01

    The SMIS (Specific Munitions Impact Scenario) experimental series performed at Los Alamos National Laboratory has determined the 3-dimensional shock initiation behavior of the HMX based heterogeneous high explosive, PBX9501, which has a PMMA case and a steel impact cover. The SMIS real-world shot scenario creates a unique test-bed because many of the fragments arrive at the impact plate off-center and at an angle of impact. The goal of this model validation experiments is to demonstrate the predictive capability of the Tarver-Lee Ignition and Growth (I&G) reactive flow model in this fully 3-dimensional regime of Shock to Detonation Transition (SDT).

  3. A model of school problems, academic failure, alcohol initiation, and the relationship to adult heroin injection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trenz, Rebecca C; Harrell, Paul; Scherer, Michael; Mancha, Brent E; Latimer, William W

    2012-08-01

    The current study uses structural equation modeling to investigate factors associated with alcohol initiation and injection heroin use. Baseline data from the NEURO-HIV Epidemiologic Study in Baltimore, Maryland, were used. Participants were 404 injection heroin users (M(age) = 32.72) with a history of regular injection in their lifetime. Latent variables were created for self-reported school problems and academic failure. The final model indicated that greater school problems were associated with earlier alcohol initiation (ß = -0.22, p failure was directly related to greater frequency of recent heroin injection (ß = 0.15, p < .01). The results expand research investigating the relationship between adolescent behavior and illicit drug use in adulthood.

  4. Using Green's Functions to initialize and adjust a global, eddying ocean biogeochemistry general circulation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brix, H.; Menemenlis, D.; Hill, C.; Dutkiewicz, S.; Jahn, O.; Wang, D.; Bowman, K.; Zhang, H.

    2015-11-01

    The NASA Carbon Monitoring System (CMS) Flux Project aims to attribute changes in the atmospheric accumulation of carbon dioxide to spatially resolved fluxes by utilizing the full suite of NASA data, models, and assimilation capabilities. For the oceanic part of this project, we introduce ECCO2-Darwin, a new ocean biogeochemistry general circulation model based on combining the following pre-existing components: (i) a full-depth, eddying, global-ocean configuration of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model (MITgcm), (ii) an adjoint-method-based estimate of ocean circulation from the Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean, Phase II (ECCO2) project, (iii) the MIT ecosystem model "Darwin", and (iv) a marine carbon chemistry model. Air-sea gas exchange coefficients and initial conditions of dissolved inorganic carbon, alkalinity, and oxygen are adjusted using a Green's Functions approach in order to optimize modeled air-sea CO2 fluxes. Data constraints include observations of carbon dioxide partial pressure (pCO2) for 2009-2010, global air-sea CO2 flux estimates, and the seasonal cycle of the Takahashi et al. (2009) Atlas. The model sensitivity experiments (or Green's Functions) include simulations that start from different initial conditions as well as experiments that perturb air-sea gas exchange parameters and the ratio of particulate inorganic to organic carbon. The Green's Functions approach yields a linear combination of these sensitivity experiments that minimizes model-data differences. The resulting initial conditions and gas exchange coefficients are then used to integrate the ECCO2-Darwin model forward. Despite the small number (six) of control parameters, the adjusted simulation is significantly closer to the data constraints (37% cost function reduction, i.e., reduction in the model-data difference, relative to the baseline simulation) and to independent observations (e.g., alkalinity). The adjusted air-sea gas

  5. 3-D thermo-mechanical modeling of plume-induced subduction initiation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baes, M.; Gerya, T.; Sobolev, S. V.

    2016-11-01

    Here, we study the 3-D subduction initiation process induced by the interaction between a hot thermo-chemical mantle plume and oceanic lithosphere using thermo-mechanical viscoplastic finite difference marker-in-cell models. Our numerical modeling results show that self-sustaining subduction is induced by plume-lithosphere interaction when the plume is sufficiently buoyant, the oceanic lithosphere is sufficiently old and the plate is weak enough to allow the buoyant plume to pass through it. Subduction initiation occurs following penetration of the lithosphere by the hot plume and the downward displacement of broken, nearly circular segments of lithosphere (proto-slabs) as a result of partially molten plume rocks overriding the proto-slabs. Our experiments show four different deformation regimes in response to plume-lithosphere interaction: a) self-sustaining subduction initiation, in which subduction becomes self-sustaining; b) frozen subduction initiation, in which subduction stops at shallow depths; c) slab break-off, in which the subducting circular slab breaks off soon after formation; and d) plume underplating, in which the plume does not pass through the lithosphere and instead spreads beneath it (i.e., failed subduction initiation). These regimes depend on several parameters, such as the size, composition, and temperature of the plume, the brittle/plastic strength and age of the oceanic lithosphere, and the presence/absence of lithospheric heterogeneities. The results show that subduction initiates and becomes self-sustaining when the lithosphere is older than 10 Myr and the non-dimensional ratio of the plume buoyancy force and lithospheric strength above the plume is higher than approximately 2. The outcomes of our numerical experiments are applicable for subduction initiation in the modern and Precambrian Earth and for the origin of plume-related corona structures on Venus.

  6. EXISTENCE OF GLOBAL SMOOTH SOLUTION TO JIN-XIN MODEL WITH LARGE INITIAL DATA

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Ruan Lizhi; Zhang Zhiyong

    2004-01-01

    In this paper, Under the assumption that the relaxation time e is suf-ficiently small, we prove the existence of the global smooth solution to the Cauchyproblem for the Jin-Xin model without any smallness assumption for the initial data.The analysis is based on some a priori estimates which are obtained by the method ofcharacteristic and the maximum principle of first-order quasilinear hyperbolic system.

  7. CHOReOS perspective on the Future Internet and initial conceptual model (D1.2)

    OpenAIRE

    Autili, Marco; Di Ruscio, Davide; Salle, Amleto Di; Georgantas, Nikolaos; Hachem, Sara; Issamy, Valérie; Parathyras, Athanasios; Trimintzios, Lefteris; Silingas, Darius; Lockerbie, James; Maiden, Neil; Ben Hamida, Amira; Bertolino, Antonia; De Angelis, Guglielmo; Polini, Andrea

    2011-01-01

    The D1.2 deliverable outlines the CHOReOS perspective on the Future Internet and its conceptualization. In particular, the deliverable focuses on: - Definition of the Future Internet and related Future Internet of Services and (Smart) Things, as considered within CHOReOS, further stressing the many dimensions underpinning the Ultra-Large Scale of the Future Internet; - Definition of the initial conceptual model of the CHOReOS Service-Oriented Architecture (SOA) for the Future Internet, identi...

  8. Global Solutions of the Evolutionary Faddeev Model with Small Initial Data

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zhen LEI; Fang Hua LIN; Yi ZHOU

    2011-01-01

    We consider the Cauchy problem for evolutionary Faddeev model corresponding to maps from the Minkowski space R1+n to the unit sphere S2, which obey a system of non-linear wave equations. The nonlinearity enjoys the null structure and contains semi-linear terms, quasi-linear terms and unknowns themselves. We prove that the Cauchy problem is globally well-posed for sufficiently small initial data in Sobolev space.

  9. CONVERGENCE RATES TO TRAVELLING WAVES FOR A RELAXATION MODEL WITH LARGE INITIAL DISTURBANCE

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张辉; 赵引川

    2004-01-01

    This paper is concerned with the convergence rates to travelling waves for a relaxation model with general flux functions. Compared with former results in this direction, the main novelty in this paper lies in the fact that the initial disturbance can be chosen large in suitable norm. Our analysis is based on the L1-stability results obtained by C. Mascia and R. Natalini in [12].

  10. Impact of Targeted Ocean Observations for Improving Ocean Model Initialization for Coupled Hurricane Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Halliwell, G. R.; Srinivasan, A.; Kourafalou, V. H.; Yang, H.; Le Henaff, M.; Atlas, R. M.

    2012-12-01

    The accuracy of hurricane intensity forecasts produced by coupled forecast models is influenced by errors and biases in SST forecasts produced by the ocean model component and the resulting impact on the enthalpy flux from ocean to atmosphere that powers the storm. Errors and biases in fields used to initialize the ocean model seriously degrade SST forecast accuracy. One strategy for improving ocean model initialization is to design a targeted observing program using airplanes and in-situ devices such as floats and drifters so that assimilation of the additional data substantially reduces errors in the ocean analysis system that provides the initial fields. Given the complexity and expense of obtaining these additional observations, observing system design methods such as OSSEs are attractive for designing efficient observing strategies. A new fraternal-twin ocean OSSE system based on the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) is used to assess the impact of targeted ocean profiles observed by hurricane research aircraft, and also by in-situ float and drifter deployments, on reducing errors in initial ocean fields. A 0.04-degree HYCOM simulation of the Gulf of Mexico is evaluated as the nature run by determining that important ocean circulation features such as the Loop Current and synoptic cyclones and anticyclones are realistically simulated. The data-assimilation system is run on a 0.08-degree HYCOM mesh with substantially different model configuration than the nature run, and it uses a new ENsemble Kalman Filter (ENKF) algorithm optimized for the ocean model's hybrid vertical coordinates. The OSSE system is evaluated and calibrated by first running Observing System Experiments (OSEs) to evaluate existing observing systems, specifically quantifying the impact of assimilating more than one satellite altimeter, and also the impact of assimilating targeted ocean profiles taken by the NOAA WP-3D hurricane research aircraft in the Gulf of Mexico during the Deepwater

  11. Deep Structures and Initiation of Plate Tectonics in Thermochemical Mantle Convection Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, U.; Stein, C.

    2015-12-01

    Recently deep thermochemical structures have been studied intensively. The observed large anomalies with reduced seismic velocities (LLSVPs) beneath Africa and the Pacific are obtained in numerical models as an initial dense layer at the core-mantle boundary (CMB) is pushed up to piles by the convective flow (e.g., McNamara et al., EPSL 229, 1-9, 2010). Adding a dense CMB layer to a model featuring active plate tectonics, Trim et al. (EPSL 405, 1-14, 2014) find that surface mobility is strongly hindered by the dense material and can even vanish completely for a CMB layer that has a too high density or too large a volume.In a further study we employed a fully rheological model in which oceanic plates form self-consistently. We observe that an initial dense CMB layer strongly affects the formation of plates and therefore the onset time of plate tectonics. We present a systematic 2D parameter study exploring the time of plate initiation and discuss the resulting deep thermal and thermochemical structures in a self-consistent thermochemical mantle convection system.

  12. Structure-Function Model for Kissing Loop Interactions That Initiate Dimerization of Ty1 RNA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eric R. Gamache

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available The genomic RNA of the retrotransposon Ty1 is packaged as a dimer into virus-like particles. The 5′ terminus of Ty1 RNA harbors cis-acting sequences required for translation initiation, packaging and initiation of reverse transcription (TIPIRT. To identify RNA motifs involved in dimerization and packaging, a structural model of the TIPIRT domain in vitro was developed from single-nucleotide resolution RNA structural data. In general agreement with previous models, the first 326 nucleotides of Ty1 RNA form a pseudoknot with a 7-bp stem (S1, a 1-nucleotide interhelical loop and an 8-bp stem (S2 that delineate two long, structured loops. Nucleotide substitutions that disrupt either pseudoknot stem greatly reduced helper-Ty1-mediated retrotransposition of a mini-Ty1, but only mutations in S2 destabilized mini-Ty1 RNA in cis and helper-Ty1 RNA in trans. Nested in different loops of the pseudoknot are two hairpins with complementary 7-nucleotide motifs at their apices. Nucleotide substitutions in either motif also reduced retrotransposition and destabilized mini- and helper-Ty1 RNA. Compensatory mutations that restore base-pairing in the S2 stem or between the hairpins rescued retrotransposition and RNA stability in cis and trans. These data inform a model whereby a Ty1 RNA kissing complex with two intermolecular kissing-loop interactions initiates dimerization and packaging.

  13. Structure-Function Model for Kissing Loop Interactions That Initiate Dimerization of Ty1 RNA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gamache, Eric R; Doh, Jung H; Ritz, Justin; Laederach, Alain; Bellaousov, Stanislav; Mathews, David H; Curcio, M Joan

    2017-04-26

    The genomic RNA of the retrotransposon Ty1 is packaged as a dimer into virus-like particles. The 5' terminus of Ty1 RNA harbors cis-acting sequences required for translation initiation, packaging and initiation of reverse transcription (TIPIRT). To identify RNA motifs involved in dimerization and packaging, a structural model of the TIPIRT domain in vitro was developed from single-nucleotide resolution RNA structural data. In general agreement with previous models, the first 326 nucleotides of Ty1 RNA form a pseudoknot with a 7-bp stem (S1), a 1-nucleotide interhelical loop and an 8-bp stem (S2) that delineate two long, structured loops. Nucleotide substitutions that disrupt either pseudoknot stem greatly reduced helper-Ty1-mediated retrotransposition of a mini-Ty1, but only mutations in S2 destabilized mini-Ty1 RNA in cis and helper-Ty1 RNA in trans. Nested in different loops of the pseudoknot are two hairpins with complementary 7-nucleotide motifs at their apices. Nucleotide substitutions in either motif also reduced retrotransposition and destabilized mini- and helper-Ty1 RNA. Compensatory mutations that restore base-pairing in the S2 stem or between the hairpins rescued retrotransposition and RNA stability in cis and trans. These data inform a model whereby a Ty1 RNA kissing complex with two intermolecular kissing-loop interactions initiates dimerization and packaging.

  14. Initiative-taking, Improvisational Capability and Business Model Innovation in Emerging Market

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cao, Yangfeng

    Business model innovation plays a very important role in developing competitive advantage when multinational small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) from developed country enter into emerging markets because of the large contextual distances or gaps between the emerging and developed economies....... Many prior researches have shown that the foreign subsidiaries play important role in shaping the overall strategy of the parent company. However, little is known about how subsidiary specifically facilitates business model innovation (BMI) in emerging markets. Adopting the method of comparative...... innovation in emerging markets. We find that high initiative-taking and strong improvisational capability can accelerate the business model innovation. Our research contributes to the literatures on international and strategic entrepreneurship....

  15. Testing variational estimation of process parameters and initial conditions of an earth system model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simon Blessing

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available We present a variational assimilation system around a coarse resolution Earth System Model (ESM and apply it for estimating initial conditions and parameters of the model. The system is based on derivative information that is efficiently provided by the ESM's adjoint, which has been generated through automatic differentiation of the model's source code. In our variational approach, the length of the feasible assimilation window is limited by the size of the domain in control space over which the approximation by the derivative is valid. This validity domain is reduced by non-smooth process representations. We show that in this respect the ocean component is less critical than the atmospheric component. We demonstrate how the feasible assimilation window can be extended to several weeks by modifying the implementation of specific process representations and by switching off processes such as precipitation.

  16. Effect of the initial stage of annealing on modeling of enthalpy relaxation in a hyperquenched glass

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhang, Yanfei; Guo, Xiaoju; Yue, Yuanzheng

    2013-01-01

    relaxation in both HQG and AHQG during the initial stage of both the sub-Tg and above-Tg annealing cannot be captured by the existing models. In this Letter we show that the combination of a modified stretched exponential equation [M. Peyron, et al., J. Magn. Reson, Series A 118 (1996) 214] and the recently......One of the major challenges in glass relaxation study is to establish a universal model describing the enthalpy relaxation in both the hyperquenched glass (HQG) (i.e., far from equilibrium) and the partially annealed hyperquenched glass(AHQG). In particular, the detailed features of the enthalpy...... proposed composite relaxation function [L. Hornboell, et al., Chem. Phys. Lett. 1-3 (2010) 37] is a reasonable approach for describing those features. In addition, our modeling results imply that the structural heterogeneity plays a crucial role in relaxation of HQG....

  17. Stage-dependent model for Hantavirus infection: The effect of the initial infection-free period

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reinoso, José A.; de la Rubia, F. Javier

    2013-04-01

    We propose a stage-dependent model with constant delay to study the effect of the initial infection-free period on the spread of Hantavirus infection in rodents. We analyze the model under various extreme weather conditions, in the context of the El Niño-La Niña Southern Oscillation phenomenon, and show how these variations determine the evolution of the system significantly. When the scenario corresponds to El Niño, the system presents a demographic explosion and a delayed outbreak of Hantavirus infection, whereas if the scenario is the opposite there is a rapid decline of the population, but with a possible persistence period that may imply a considerable risk for public health, a fact that is in agreement with available field data. We use the model to simulate a historical evolution that resembles the processes that occurred in the 1990s.

  18. The initial and final state of SNe Ia from the single degenerate model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2010-01-01

    Although type Ia supernovae(SNe Ia) show their importance in many astrophysical fields,the nature of the progenitors of SNe Ia is still unclear.At present,the single degenerate(SD) model is presented to be a very likely progenitor model.Following the comprehensive SD model developed by Meng & Yang(2010),we show the initial and final state of the progenitor systems of SNe Ia in an orbital period—the secondary mass(log Pi,M2i) plane.Our results may explain the location of some supersoft X-ray sources and recurrent novae in the(log Pi,M2i) plane,and be helpful to judge whether an SD system is the potential progenitor system of SNe Ia,as well as to simulate the interaction between SN ejecta and its companion.

  19. A model for spatially and temporally distributed shallow landslide initiation by rainfall infiltration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Savage, W.Z.; Godt, J.W.; Baum, R.L.; ,

    2003-01-01

    We describe a model for regional initiation of shallow landslides based on an approximate analytic solution to Richards equation combined with an infinite-slope calculation. The model applied over digital topography computes pressure heads and factors of safety as functions of depth for geographic information system (GIS) grid cells at any time during and after rainfall events. An example is presented that simulates the progressive development of shallow landslides on steep slopes during a rainfall event. This example shows how this modeling provides insights into transient rainfall-caused processes that trigger shallow slope instability and consequent regionally distributed debris-flow events. Specifically, we infer that the spatial pattern of instability is primarily controlled by topography, while intensity and duration of rainfall, and the subsequent pore-pressure responses control the temporal pattern of instability. ?? 2003 Millpress.

  20. The Model Parameter Estimation Experiment (MOPEX): Its structure, connection to other international initiatives and future directions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wagener, T; Hogue, T; Schaake, J; Duan, Q; Gupta, H; Andreassian, V; Hall, A; Leavesley, G

    2006-05-08

    The Model Parameter Estimation Experiment (MOPEX) is an international project aimed at developing enhanced techniques for the a priori estimation of parameters in hydrologic models and in land surface parameterization schemes connected to atmospheric models. The MOPEX science strategy involves: database creation, a priori parameter estimation methodology development, parameter refinement or calibration, and the demonstration of parameter transferability. A comprehensive MOPEX database has been developed that contains historical hydrometeorological data and land surface characteristics data for many hydrologic basins in the United States (US) and in other countries. This database is being continuously expanded to include basins from various hydroclimatic regimes throughout the world. MOPEX research has largely been driven by a series of international workshops that have brought interested hydrologists and land surface modelers together to exchange knowledge and experience in developing and applying parameter estimation techniques. With its focus on parameter estimation, MOPEX plays an important role in the international context of other initiatives such as GEWEX, PUB and PILPS. This paper outlines the MOPEX initiative, discusses its role in the scientific community and briefly states future directions.

  1. Eikonal-based initiation of fibrillatory activity in thin-walled cardiac propagation models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herlin, Antoine; Jacquemet, Vincent

    2011-12-01

    Reentrant arrhythmias can be simulated in electrophysiological models of electrical impulse propagation governed by a reaction-diffusion system. To facilitate the initiation of a large number of independent episodes of simulated arrhythmias with controllable level of complexity, a new approach is proposed for thin-walled geometries in which depolarization wave dynamics is essentially two-dimensional. Points representing phase singularities are first randomly distributed over the epicardial surface and are assigned a topological charge (direction of rotation). A qualitatively-correct phase map is then reconstructed on the whole surface by interpolation. The eikonal-diffusion equation is used to iteratively regularize the phase map based on a priori information on wavefront propagation. An initial condition for the reaction-diffusion model is created from the resulting phase map with multiple functional/anatomical reentries. Results in an atrial model demonstrate the ability to generate statistical realizations of the same dynamics and to vary the level of complexity measured by the number of phase singularities. A library of 100 simulations with an average number of phase singularities ranging from 1 to 10 is created. An extension to volumetric patient-specific atrial models including fiber orientation and a fast conducting system is presented to illustrate possible applications.

  2. A structural model of the E. coli PhoB Dimer in the transcription initiation complex

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tung Chang-Shung

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background There exist > 78,000 proteins and/or nucleic acids structures that were determined experimentally. Only a small portion of these structures corresponds to those of protein complexes. While homology modeling is able to exploit knowledge-based potentials of side-chain rotomers and backbone motifs to infer structures for new proteins, no such general method exists to extend our understanding of protein interaction motifs to novel protein complexes. Results We use a Motif Binding Geometries (MBG approach, to infer the structure of a protein complex from the database of complexes of homologous proteins taken from other contexts (such as the helix-turn-helix motif binding double stranded DNA, and demonstrate its utility on one of the more important regulatory complexes in biology, that of the RNA polymerase initiating transcription under conditions of phosphate starvation. The modeled PhoB/RNAP/σ-factor/DNA complex is stereo-chemically reasonable, has sufficient interfacial Solvent Excluded Surface Areas (SESAs to provide adequate binding strength, is physically meaningful for transcription regulation, and is consistent with a variety of known experimental constraints. Conclusions Based on a straightforward and easy to comprehend concept, "proteins and protein domains that fold similarly could interact similarly", a structural model of the PhoB dimer in the transcription initiation complex has been developed. This approach could be extended to enable structural modeling and prediction of other bio-molecular complexes. Just as models of individual proteins provide insight into molecular recognition, catalytic mechanism, and substrate specificity, models of protein complexes will provide understanding into the combinatorial rules of cellular regulation and signaling.

  3. Using Multi-Scale Filtering to Initialize a Background Extraction Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. A. Lili

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Problem statement: Probability-based methods which usually work based on the saved history of each pixel are utilized severally in extracting a background image for moving detection systems. Probability-based methods suffer from a lack of information when the system first begins to work. The model should be initialized using an alternative accurate method. Approach: The use of a nonparametric filtering to calculate the most probable value for each pixel in the initialization phase can be useful. In this study a complete system to extract an adaptable gray scale background image is presented. It is a probability-based system and especially suitable for outdoor applications. The proposed method is initialized using a multi scale filtering method. Results: The results of the experiments certify that not only the quality of the final extracted background is about 10% more accurate in comparison to four recent re-implemented methods, but also the time consumption of the extraction are acceptable. Conclusion: Using multi-scale filtering to initialize the background model and to extract the background using a probability-based method proposes an accurate and adaptable background extraction method which is able to handle sudden and large illumination changes.

  4. An Enhanced Box-Wing Solar Radiation pressure model for BDS and initial results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Qunhe; Wang, Xiaoya; Hu, Xiaogong; Guo, Rui; Shang, Lin; Tang, Chengpan; Shao, Fan

    2016-04-01

    Solar radiation pressure forces are the largest non-gravitational perturbations acting on GNSS satellites, which is difficult to be accurately modeled due to the complicated and changing satellite attitude and unknown surface material characteristics. By the end of 2015, there are more than 50 stations of the Multi-GNSS Experiment(MGEX) set-up by the IGS. The simple box-plate model relies on coarse assumptions about the dimensions and optical properties of the satellite due to lack of more detailed information. So, a physical model based on BOX-WING model is developed, which is more sophisticated and more detailed physical structure has been taken into account, then calculating pressure forces according to the geometric relations between light rays and surfaces. All the MGEX stations and IGS core stations had been processed for precise orbit determination tests with GPS and BDS observations. Calculation range covers all the two kinds of Eclipsing and non-eclipsing periods in 2015, and we adopted the un-differential observation mode and more accurate values of satellite phase centers. At first, we tried nine parameters model, and then eliminated the parameters with strong correlation between them, came into being five parameters of the model. Five parameters were estimated, such as solar scale, y-bias, three material coefficients of solar panel, x-axis and z-axis panels. Initial results showed that, in the period of yaw-steering mode, use of Enhanced ADBOXW model results in small improvement for IGSO and MEO satellites, and the Root-Mean-Square(RMS) error value of one-day arc orbit decreased by about 10%~30% except for C08 and C14. The new model mainly improved the along track acceleration, up to 30% while in the radial track was not obvious. The Satellite Laser Ranging(SLR) validation showed, however, that this model had higher prediction accuracy in the period of orbit-normal mode, compared to GFZ multi-GNSS orbit products, as well with relative post

  5. Genetic Algorithms for Models Optimization for Recognition of Translation Initiation Sites

    KAUST Repository

    Mora, Arturo Magana

    2011-06-01

    This work uses genetic algorithms (GA) to reduce the complexity of the artificial neural networks (ANNs) and decision trees (DTs) for the accurate recognition of translation initiation sites (TISs) in Arabidopsis Thaliana. The Arabidopsis data was extracted directly from genomic DNA sequences. Methods derived in this work resulted in both reduced complexity of the predictors, as well as in improvement in prediction accuracy (generalization). Optimization through use of GA is generally a computationally intensive task. One of the approaches to overcome this problem is to use parallelization of code that implements GA, thus allowing computation on multiprocessing infrastructure. However, further improvement in performance GA implementation could be achieved through modification done to GA basic operations such as selection, crossover and mutation. In this work we explored two such improvements, namely evolutive mutation and GA-Simplex crossover operation. In this thesis we studied the benefit of these modifications on the problem of TISs recognition. Compared to the non-modified GA approach, we reduced the number of weights in the resulting model\\'s neural network component by 51% and the number of nodes in the model\\'s DTs component by 97% whilst improving the model\\'s accuracy at the same time. Separately, we developed another methodology for reducing the complexity of prediction models by optimizing the composition of training data subsets in bootstrap aggregation (bagging) methodology. This optimization is achieved by applying a new GA-based bagging methodology in order to optimize the composition of each of the training data subsets. This approach has shown in our test cases to considerably enhance the accuracy of the TIS prediction model compared to the original bagging methodology. Although these methods are applied to the problem of accurate prediction of TISs we believe that these methodologies have a potential for wider scope of application.

  6. SeSBench - An initiative to benchmark reactive transport models for environmental subsurface processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacques, Diederik

    2017-04-01

    As soil functions are governed by a multitude of interacting hydrological, geochemical and biological processes, simulation tools coupling mathematical models for interacting processes are needed. Coupled reactive transport models are a typical example of such coupled tools mainly focusing on hydrological and geochemical coupling (see e.g. Steefel et al., 2015). Mathematical and numerical complexity for both the tool itself or of the specific conceptual model can increase rapidly. Therefore, numerical verification of such type of models is a prerequisite for guaranteeing reliability and confidence and qualifying simulation tools and approaches for any further model application. In 2011, a first SeSBench -Subsurface Environmental Simulation Benchmarking- workshop was held in Berkeley (USA) followed by four other ones. The objective is to benchmark subsurface environmental simulation models and methods with a current focus on reactive transport processes. The final outcome was a special issue in Computational Geosciences (2015, issue 3 - Reactive transport benchmarks for subsurface environmental simulation) with a collection of 11 benchmarks. Benchmarks, proposed by the participants of the workshops, should be relevant for environmental or geo-engineering applications; the latter were mostly related to radioactive waste disposal issues - excluding benchmarks defined for pure mathematical reasons. Another important feature is the tiered approach within a benchmark with the definition of a single principle problem and different sub problems. The latter typically benchmarked individual or simplified processes (e.g. inert solute transport, simplified geochemical conceptual model) or geometries (e.g. batch or one-dimensional, homogeneous). Finally, three codes should be involved into a benchmark. The SeSBench initiative contributes to confidence building for applying reactive transport codes. Furthermore, it illustrates the use of those type of models for different

  7. Model Building of the Initial Crown Effect Rate in 4-High Mill

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Jianzhong XU; Dianyao GONG; Wencai ZHANG; Xianwen CHANG; Xianghua LIU; Guodong WANG

    2005-01-01

    The code for calculating the crown effect rate of hot strip steel was developed using the effect function method.The effect of the initial crown on the crown of the product in hot strip rolling was investigated. The coefficients of a polynomial of degree six for calculating the base value of initial crown effect rate in 4-high mill were determined and the compensation factors of per unit width rolling force, bending force, work roll crown and draft on the initial crown effect rate were given. The difference between the calculation result by established model and theoretical value obtained by effect function method was 4.88 μm when the strip width was 1.85 m.

  8. A Modeling and Verification Study of Summer Precipitation Systems Using NASA Surface Initialization Datasets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jonathan L. Case; Kumar, Sujay V.; Srikishen, Jayanthi; Jedlovec, Gary J.

    2010-01-01

    One of the most challenging weather forecast problems in the southeastern U.S. is daily summertime pulse-type convection. During the summer, atmospheric flow and forcing are generally weak in this region; thus, convection typically initiates in response to local forcing along sea/lake breezes, and other discontinuities often related to horizontal gradients in surface heating rates. Numerical simulations of pulse convection usually have low skill, even in local predictions at high resolution, due to the inherent chaotic nature of these precipitation systems. Forecast errors can arise from assumptions within parameterization schemes, model resolution limitations, and uncertainties in both the initial state of the atmosphere and land surface variables such as soil moisture and temperature. For this study, it is hypothesized that high-resolution, consistent representations of surface properties such as soil moisture, soil temperature, and sea surface temperature (SST) are necessary to better simulate the interactions between the surface and atmosphere, and ultimately improve predictions of summertime pulse convection. This paper describes a sensitivity experiment using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Interpolated land and ocean surface fields from a large-scale model are replaced with high-resolution datasets provided by unique NASA assets in an experimental simulation: the Land Information System (LIS) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) SSTs. The LIS is run in an offline mode for several years at the same grid resolution as the WRF model to provide compatible land surface initial conditions in an equilibrium state. The MODIS SSTs provide detailed analyses of SSTs over the oceans and large lakes compared to current operational products. The WRF model runs initialized with the LIS+MODIS datasets result in a reduction in the overprediction of rainfall areas; however, the skill is almost equally as low in both experiments using

  9. Transitioning Enhanced Land Surface Initialization and Model Verification Capabilities to the Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Case, Jonathan L.; Mungai, John; Sakwa, Vincent; Zavodsky, Bradley T.; Srikishen, Jayanthi; Limaye, Ashutosh; Blankenship, Clay B.

    2016-01-01

    Flooding, severe weather, and drought are key forecasting challenges for the Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD), based in Nairobi, Kenya. Atmospheric processes leading to convection, excessive precipitation and/or prolonged drought can be strongly influenced by land cover, vegetation, and soil moisture content, especially during anomalous conditions and dry/wet seasonal transitions. It is thus important to represent accurately land surface state variables (green vegetation fraction, soil moisture, and soil temperature) in Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models. The NASA SERVIR and the Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) programs in Huntsville, AL have established a working partnership with KMD to enhance its regional modeling capabilities. SPoRT and SERVIR are providing experimental land surface initialization datasets and model verification capabilities for capacity building at KMD. To support its forecasting operations, KMD is running experimental configurations of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF; Skamarock et al. 2008) model on a 12-km/4-km nested regional domain over eastern Africa, incorporating the land surface datasets provided by NASA SPoRT and SERVIR. SPoRT, SERVIR, and KMD participated in two training sessions in March 2014 and June 2015 to foster the collaboration and use of unique land surface datasets and model verification capabilities. Enhanced regional modeling capabilities have the potential to improve guidance in support of daily operations and high-impact weather and climate outlooks over Eastern Africa. For enhanced land-surface initialization, the NASA Land Information System (LIS) is run over Eastern Africa at 3-km resolution, providing real-time land surface initialization data in place of interpolated global model soil moisture and temperature data available at coarser resolutions. Additionally, real-time green vegetation fraction (GVF) composites from the Suomi-NPP VIIRS instrument is being incorporated

  10. Modelling of sea floor spreading initiation and rifted continental margin formation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tymms, V. J.; Isimm Team

    2003-04-01

    Recent observations of depth dependent (heterogeneous) stretching where upper crustal extension is much less than that of the lower crust and lithospheric mantle at both non-volcanic and volcanic margins plus the discovery of broad domains of exhumed continental mantle at non-volcanic rifted margins are not predicted by existing quantitative models of rifted margin formation which are usually based on intra-continental rift models subjected to very large stretching factors. New conceptual and quantitative models of rifted margin formation are required. Observations and continuum mechanics suggest that the dominant process responsible for rifted continental margin formation is sea-floor spreading of the young ocean ridge, rather than pre-breakup intra-continental rifting. Simple fluid flow models of ocean ridge processes using analytical iso-viscous corner-flow demonstrate that the divergent motion of the upwelling mantle beneath the ocean ridge, when viewed in the reference frame of the young continental margin, shows oceanward flow of the lower continental crust and lithospheric mantle of the young rifted margin giving rise to depth dependent stretching as observed. Single-phase fluid-models have been developed to model the initiation of sea-floor spreading and the thermal, stretching and thinning evolution of the young rifted continental margin. Finite element fluid-flow modelling incorporating the evolving temperature dependent viscosity field on the fluid flow also show depth dependent stretching of the young continental margin. Two-phase flow models of ocean ridges incorporating the transport of both solid matrix and melt fluid (Spiegelman &Reynolds 1999) predict the divergent motion of the asthenosphere and lithosphere matrix, and the focusing of basaltic melt into the narrow axial zone spreading centre at ocean ridges. We are adapting two-phase flow models for application to the initiation of sea-floor spreading and rifted continental margin formation. i

  11. Modelling channel network formation: the effect of tidal range and initial bathymetry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coco, G.; van Maanen, B.; Bryan, K.

    2010-12-01

    Tidal embayments are of key importance to coastal communities because they can be used as transport routes and they are amongst the most productive ecosystems in the world. These environments can host extensive channel networks which have a strong control on the hydrodynamics and sediment transport. As a result, channel networks affect both the short- and long-term morphological evolution of tidal embayments. Despite their importance, observations of channel network formation involve large spatial and temporal scales so that detailed studies have rarely been reported. Modelling techniques have been developed which overcome the problem related to the difference in time scales over which hydrodynamic and morphodynamic processes occur. Here we use this type of models to assess the influence of tidal range and initial bathymetry on the long-term evolution of tidal basins and the formation of channel network patterns. A numerical model has been developed to simulate morphological evolution as a result of the interactions between hydrodynamics, sediment transport, and bed elevation change. Simulations were undertaken using idealised initial bathymetries consisting of an offshore area, inlet, and basin. Flow velocities are computed using an open source numerical model (ELCOM; Estuary and Lake Computer Model) that is based on the unsteady Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes equations for incompressible flow using the hydrostatic assumption. The computed flow velocities drive sediment transport, which is calculated using formulas widely adopted in sediment transport studies. Gradients in sediment transport rate yield morphological change which feed back into the hydrodynamic part of the model, thus coupling the different subsystems of the morphodynamic feedback loop. Model results indicate that morphodynamic interactions can cause channel initiation and potentially give rise to channel pattern development. Numerous simulations have been performed to test the sensitivity of the

  12. Different approaches for regional initialization of soil organic matter pools for modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Demyan, Scott; Mirzaeitalarposhti, Reza; Rasche, Frank; Funkuin, Nkwain; Shahbaz Ali, Rana; Müller, Torsten; Cadisch, Georg

    2016-04-01

    In traditional soil organic matter (SOM) compartmental pool models (e.g. Daisy), slower turnover pools (decades to centuries) are often hard to define and any information on a regional basis is generally lacking. The proportions of carbon in the slower turnover pools have implications for long-term simulations (>20 years). This study used methods developed and tested on several long-term experiments in order to extrapolate results to the regions Kraichgau and Swabian Alb in southwest Germany. A traditional size-density separation with chemical oxidation (Fractions) (Zimmermann et al., 2007) was used and compared with spectroscopic and thermo-spectroscopic methods. These included diffuse reflectance Fourier transform mid-infrared spectroscopy (DRIFT-MIRS) and pyrolysis mid-infrared spectroscopy (pyro-MIRS). These methods were applied to a regional sample set of 126 samples and later upscaled to a larger regionally extensive sample set of 1170 samples via partial least squares regression (PLSR) in order to initialize the two slow SOM pools (SOM1 and SOM2) of the Daisy SOM model. Further, geostatistics (kriging) were used to develop maps in order to compare the regional distribution of the relative sizes of the SOM1 and SOM2 pools between the different methods along with a default SOM1 and SOM2 pool initialization. Results will be used to estimate the impact of the different pool initialization methods during 20 year simulations in the Daisy soil organic matter model as implemented in the Expert-N modeling platform and scaled to the entire region. Zimmermann, M., Leifeld, J. and Fuhrer, J.: Quantifying soil organic carbon fractions by infrared-spectroscopy, Soil Biol. Biochem., 39, 224-231, 2007.

  13. Impact of the Pharmacy Practice Model Initiative on Clinical Pharmacy Specialist Practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacobi, Judith; Ray, Shaunta'; Danelich, Ilya; Dodds Ashley, Elizabeth; Eckel, Stephen; Guharoy, Roy; Militello, Michael; O'Donnell, Paul; Sam, Teena; Crist, Stephanie M; Smidt, Danielle

    2016-05-01

    This paper describes the goals of the American Society of Health-System Pharmacists' Pharmacy Practice Model Initiative (PPMI) and its recommendations for health-system pharmacy practice transformation to meet future patient care needs and elevate the role of pharmacists as patient care providers. PPMI envisions a future in which pharmacists have greater responsibility for medication-related outcomes and technicians assume greater responsibility for product-related activities. Although the PPMI recommendations have elevated the level of practice in many settings, they also potentially affect existing clinical pharmacists, in general, and clinical pharmacy specialists, in particular. Moreover, although more consistent patient care can be achieved with an expanded team of pharmacist providers, the role of clinical pharmacy specialists must not be diminished, especially in the care of complex patients and populations. Specialist practitioners with advanced training and credentials must be available to model and train pharmacists in generalist positions, residents, and students. Indeed, specialist practitioners are often the innovators and practice leaders. Negotiation between hospitals and pharmacy schools is needed to ensure a continuing role for academic clinical pharmacists and their contributions as educators and researchers. Lessons can be applied from disciplines such as nursing and medicine, which have developed new models of care involving effective collaboration between generalists and specialists. Several different pharmacy practice models have been described to meet the PPMI goals, based on available personnel and local goals. Studies measuring the impact of these new practice models are needed.

  14. The initial conditions and evolution of isolated galaxy models: effects of the hot gas halo

    CERN Document Server

    Hwang, Jeong-Sun; Choi, Jun-Hwan

    2013-01-01

    We construct several Milky Way-like galaxy models containing a gas halo (as well as gaseous and stellar disks, a dark matter halo, and a stellar bulge) following either an isothermal or an NFW density profile with varying mass and initial spin. In addition, galactic winds associated with star formation are tested in some of the simulations. We evolve these isolated galaxy models using the GADGET-3 $N$-body/hydrodynamic simulation code, paying particular attention to the effects of the gas halo on the evolution. We find that the evolution of the models is strongly affected by the adopted gas halo component. The model without a gas halo shows an increasing star formation rate (SFR) at the beginning of the simulation for some hundreds of millions of years and then a continuously decreasing rate to the end of the run at 3 Gyr. On the other hand, the SFRs in the models with a gas halo emerge to be either relatively flat throughout the simulations or increasing over a gigayear and then decreasing to the end. The mo...

  15. Model-based detection of synthetic bat echolocation calls using an energy threshold detector for initialization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skowronski, Mark D; Fenton, M Brock

    2008-05-01

    Detection of echolocation calls is fundamental to quantitative analysis of bat acoustic signals. Automated methods of detection reduce the subjectivity of hand labeling of calls and speed up the detection process in an accurate and repeatable manner. A model-based detector was initialized using a baseline energy threshold detector, removing the need for hand labels to train the model, and shown to be superior to the baseline detector using synthetic calls in two experiments: (1) an artificial environment and (2) a field playback setting. Synthetic calls using a piecewise exponential frequency modulation function from five hypothetical species were employed to control the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) in each experiment and to provide an absolute ground truth to judge detector performance. The model-based detector outperformed the baseline detector by 2.5 dB SNR in the artificial environment and 1.5 dB SNR in the field playback setting. Atmospheric absorption was measured for the synthetic calls, and 1.5 dB increased the effective detection radius by between 1 and 7 m depending on species. The results demonstrate that hand labels are not necessary for training detection models and that model-based detectors significantly increase the range of detection for a recording system.

  16. Original mechanism of failure initiation revealed through modelling of naturally occurring microstructures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gorbatikh, Larissa; Lomov, Stepan V.; Verpoest, Ignaas

    2010-05-01

    Motivated to reveal original mechanisms of failure resistance, we developed a material model that encompasses most reoccurring microstructural features of natural composites. The interesting result of the work is a notion that material failure is governed by the quality of interactions between hierarchical levels in the material microstructure. With intelligent use of the structure, these interactions can be tuned to create a powerful synergetic effect on the material failure behaviour. For example, while exploring different mechanisms of failure initiation in composites with bimodal size reinforcements (an indirect way to model two levels of hierarchy simultaneously) we found that failure initiation could be shifted from stress concentration sites of the higher level to the lower level. One could say that the material behaviour became insensitive to the presence of reinforcements on the higher level—a phenomenon that is counterintuitive to what is commonly known. The new mechanism of failure initiation could only be activated in composites with a highly controlled structural organization—in the studied case, reinforcements of the lower level needed to establish lamellar pathways between reinforcements of the higher level. These pathways lead to formation of an intriguing network-like microstructure. Intelligent communication between reinforcements in such a network created the necessary synergy to change the failure initiation mechanism in a discontinuous fashion. Another finding was that by establishing such a network, tensile stresses near dangerous stress concentration sites were locally transformed into compressive stresses. Resemblance of the revealed mechanism to phenomena on the nano-scale was also discussed. In the course of this work a new method was developed to investigate interactions between reinforcements and their collective input into effective and local properties of a composite. The reinforcement phase was modelled with the use of rigid

  17. A possible mechanism for the initiation of the Yinggehai Basin: A visco-elasto-plastic model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xinguo; He, Jiankun; Ding, Lin; Gao, Risheng

    2013-09-01

    The Yinggehai Basin, lying along the trace of the Red River fault zone in the South China Sea, has been related to the movements of the Red River fault zone and the rotation of the Indochina block. However, the tectonic origin of the Yinggehai Basin remains unclear. This paper explores the initiation of the Yinggehai Basin using a visco-elasto-plastic model. This model concentrates on two main aspects: lateral viscosity variations (mainly controlled by temperature) in the lithosphere and internal friction angles of the pre-existing fault zone. Modeling results show that: (1) for a layered viscosity, en echelon faults would likely form when there is no pre-existing strike-slip fault; whereas, the basin would be narrow and deep, if any, when there is a pre-existing fault; (2) for moderate lateral viscosity variations, a large basin forms, even without a pre-existing fault zone; and (3) for strong lateral viscosity variations, a major rift could form over geologic time. Our results indicate that the initiation of the Yinggehai Basin requires moderate lateral viscosity variations (i.e., a pre-existing gentle upwelling of the Mohorovicic discontinuity) but no pre-existing fault. In addition, the initial extension predicted is NE-SW and is generated by the rotation of the Indochina block. This differs from the NW-SE extension that resulted from the movements of the Red River fault zone. This indicates that the left-lateral displacements of the Red River fault zone and the spreading of the South China Sea only influence the basin evolution after its initiation.

  18. Toward Verifying Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions with the CMAQ Model: Motivation, Model Description and Initial Simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liu, Zhen; Bambha, Ray P.; Pinto, Joseph P.; Zeng, Tao; Boylan, Jim; Huang, Maoyi; Lei, Huimin; Zhao, Chun; Liu, Shishi; Mao, Jiafu; Schwalm, Christopher R.; Shi, Xiaoying; Wei, Yaxing; Michelsen, Hope A.

    2014-03-14

    Motivated by the urgent need for emission verification of CO2 and other greenhouse gases, we have developed regional CO2 simulation with CMAQ over the contiguous U.S. Model sensitivity experiments have been performed using three different sets of inputs for net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and two fossil fuel emission inventories, to understand the roles of fossil fuel emissions, atmosphere-biosphere exchange and transport in regulating the spatial and diurnal variability of CO2 near the surface, and to characterize the well-known ‘signal-to-noise’ problem, i.e. the interference from the biosphere on the interpretation of atmospheric CO2 observations. It is found that differences in the meteorological conditions for different urban areas strongly contribute to the contrast in concentrations. The uncertainty of NEE, as measured by the difference among the three different NEE inputs, has notable impact on regional distribution of CO2 simulated by CMAQ. Larger NEE uncertainty and impact are found over eastern U.S. urban areas than along the western coast. A comparison with tower CO2 measurements at Boulder Atmospheric Observatory (BAO) shows that the CMAQ model using hourly varied and high-resolution CO2 emission from the Vulcan inventory and CarbonTracker optimized NEE reasonably reproduce the observed diurnal profile, whereas switching to different NEE inputs significantly degrades the model performance. Spatial distribution of CO2 is found to correlate with NOx, SO2 and CO, due to their similarity in emission sources and transport processes. These initial results from CMAQ demonstrate the power of a state-of-the art CTM in helping interpret CO2 observations and verify fossil fuel emissions. The ability to simulate CO2 in CMAQ will also facilitate investigations of the utility of traditionally regulated pollutants and other species as tracers to CO2 source attribution.

  19. Where does subduction initiate and die? Insights from global convection models with continental drift

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ulvrova, Martina; Williams, Simon; Coltice, Nicolas; Tackley, Paul

    2017-04-01

    Plate tectonics is a prominent feature on Earth. Together with the underlying convecting mantle, plates form a self-organized system. In order to understand the dynamics of the coupled system, subduction of the lithospheric plates plays the key role since it links the exterior with the interior of the planet. In this work we study subduction initiation and death with respect to the position of the continental rafts. Using thermo-mechanical numerical calculations we investigate global convection models featuring self-consistent plate tectonics and continental drifting employing a pseudo-plastic rheology and testing the effect of a free surface. We consider uncompressible mantle convection in Boussinesq approximation that is basaly and internaly heated. Our calculations indicate that the presence of the continents alterns stress distribution within a certain distance from the margins. Intra-oceanic subudction initiation is favorable during super-continent cycles while the initiation at passive continental margin prevails when continents are dispersed. The location of subduction initiation is additionally controlled by the lithospheric strength. Very weak lithosphere results in domination of intra-oceanic subduction initiation. The subduction zones die more easily in the vicinity of the continent due to the strong rheological contrast between the oceanic and continental lithosphere. In order to compare our findings with subduction positions through time recorded on Earth, we analyse subduction birth in global plate reconstruction back to 410 My.

  20. Initiation of the detonation in the gravitationally confined detonation model of Type Ia supernovae

    CERN Document Server

    Seitenzahl, Ivo R; Lamb, Don Q; Truran, James W

    2009-01-01

    We study the initiation of the detonation in the gravitationally confined detonation (GCD) model of Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia). Initiation of the detonation occurs spontaneously in a region where the length scale of the temperature gradient extending from a flow (in which carbon burning is already occurring) into unburned fuel is commensurate to the range of critical length scales which have been derived from 1D simulations that resolve the initiation of a detonation. By increasing the maximum resolution in a truncated cone that encompasses this region, beginning somewhat before initiation of the detonation occurs, we successfully simulate in situ the first gradient-initiated detonation in a whole-star simulation. The detonation emerges when a compression wave overruns a pocket of fuel situated in a Kelvin-Helmholtz cusp at the leading edge of the inwardly directed jet of burning carbon. The compression wave pre-conditions the temperature in the fuel in such a way that the Zel'dovich gradient mechanism can o...

  1. Experimental and modeling study on pyrolysis of n-decane initiated by nitromethane

    KAUST Repository

    Jia, Zhenjian

    2016-01-15

    Initiator could accelerate the rate of hydrocarbon pyrolysis and reduce the required material temperatures for a hypersonic aircraft heat exchanger/reactor. Nitroalkanes were proposed as the effective initiator because of the lower CN bond dissociation energy. In order to investigate the initiation mechanism of nitroalkanes on hydrocarbon pyrolysis, the pyrolysis of n-decane, nitromethane and their binary mixture were carried out at 30, 150 and 760 Torr in a flow reactor with synchrotron vacuum ultraviolet photoionization mass spectrometry (SVUV-PIMS). The identified and quantified pyrolysis species include C1C2 alkanes, C2C10 alkenes, C3C6 dialkenes, C2C3 alkynes, nitrogen oxides such as NO and NO2, benzene, and radicals including CH3, C3H3, and C3H5, which shed light on the mechanism of n-decane and nitromethane pyrolysis, as well as the interactions of these two fuels. The experimental results indicate that the addition of nitromethane decreases the initial decomposition temperature of n-decane, and a stronger promotion effect could be obtained as the experimental pressure increases. The distributions of alkanes, alkenes, dialkenes, alkynes and benzene are also influenced by the addition of nitromethane. A detailed kinetic model with 266 species and 1648 reactions was developed and validated against the mole fraction profiles of reactants, major products and important intermediates during the pyrolysis of each fuel and their binary mixture. The satisfactory model prediction to the experimental measurements permits the analysis of the kinetic effect of nitromethane initiation on the pyrolysis of n-decane. So that, the increase of the conversion rate at a lower temperature, the selectivity of decomposition products, and reduction of benzene formation are better understood.

  2. Initial stage of growth of single-walled carbon nanotubes: modeling and simulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaudhuri, I; Yu, Ming; Jayanthi, C S; Wu, S Y

    2014-03-19

    Because there are different pathways to grow carbon nanotubes (CNTs), a common mechanism for the synthesis of CNTs does not likely exist. However, after carbon atoms are liberated from carbon-containing precursors by catalysts or from pure carbon systems, a common feature, the nucleation of CNTs by electron mediation, does appear. We studied this feature using the initial stage of growth of single wall CNTs (SWCNTs) by transition metal nano-particle catalysts as the working example. To circumvent the bottleneck due to the size and simulation time, we used a model in which the metal droplet is represented by a jellium, and the effect of collisions between the carbon atoms and atoms of the catalyst is captured by charge transfers between the jellium and the carbon. The simulations were performed using a transferable semi-empirical Hamiltonian to model the interactions between carbon atoms in jellium. We annealed different initial configurations of carbon clusters in jellium as well as in a vacuum. We found that in jellium, elongated open tubular structures, precursors to the growth of SWCNTs, are formed. Our model was also shown to be capable of mimicking the continued growth when more atoms were placed near the open end of the tubular structure.

  3. A STUDY ON LIMITATION OF GOVERNMENT INITIATIVE MODEL FOR ALTERNATIVE FUEL VEHICLE (AFV PROMOTION IN CHINA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Byunghun Choi

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Chinese responsibility for reducing Greenhouse Gas or carbon dioxide emission increases continuously. Chinese government suggested two targets; Alternative Fuel Vehicle output volume 500 thousand and AFV market share 5% by the end of 2011. However any of two targets did not come true. Therefore this study accessed the question, ‘why Chinese government initiative model for AFV promotion has been so poor?’ This study reviewed the transition process for AFV policies in China and made a structural analysis for three key policies since 2009. As a result the number of articles for related industries or factor endowments was relatively more than firm strategy or demand conditions. Also this study accessed the AFV strategy of Six SOEs from the perspective of social responsibility. Six SOEs have more concentrated on electric vehicle rather than hybrid vehicle with following the government leadership. However major EV or HEV models of them mostly were made by Joint Ventures being under control of foreign makers and the JVs have actually controlled over AFV business. So the limitation of Chinese government initiative model resulted from supplier-centric approach with targeting for public transportation and institution consumer, and it caused a failure to create the demand conditions of general customers.

  4. Assessing extreme models of the Stoeber synthesis using transients under a range of initial composition

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, K.; McCormick, A.V. [Univ. of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN (United States); Look, J.L. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States); Harris, M.T. [Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States). Dept. of Chemical Engineering

    1997-10-01

    Monodispersely sized micrometer-scale spherical colloids of metal oxides are important for the controlled fabrication of high quality ceramic materials. Their synthesis by the hydrolysis of metal alkoxides is of particular interest. {sup 29}Si-NMR, conductimetry, and photon correlation spectroscopy are used to monitor the temporal profile of intermediate concentrations in Stoeber synthesis (i.e., ammonia-catalyzed hydrolysis of tetraethoxysilane in a batch reactor). Extreme models of the process are assessed by examining the effect of initial composition on these transients (over a wider range of composition than attempted previously). The trends with initial composition suggest that the nucleation is rate-limited by the hydrolysis of the singly hydrolyzed monomer, the product of which probably phase separates. Moreover, the trends are consistent with the aggregation model discussed by G.H. Bogush and C.F. Zukoski (J. Colloid Interface Sci. 142, 1, 19, 1991) and by M.T. Harris (Ph.D. dissertation, Univ. of Tennessee, 1992). The trends are not consistent with a growth model without aggregation.

  5. Experimental and modeling study of chloride ingress into concrete and reinforcement corrosion initiation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Hui

    Effects of reinforcement and coarse aggregate on chloride ingression into concrete and reinforcement corrosion initiation have been studied with experimental and modeling (finite element method) analyses. Once specimens were fabricated and exposed to a chloride solution, various experimental techniques were employed to determine the effect of reinforcement and coarse aggregate on time-to-corrosion and chloride ingress and concentration at corrosion locations. Model analyses were performed to verify and explain the experimental results. Based upon the results, it was determined that unexpectedly higher chloride concentrations were present on the top of the rebar trace than that to the side at the same depth and an inverse concentration gradient (increasing [ Cl-] with increasing depth) occurred near the top of rebars. Also, coarse aggregate volume profile in close proximity to the rebar and spatial distribution of these aggregates, in conjunction with the physical obstruction afforded by reinforcement to chloride flow, complicates concrete sampling for Cl- intended to define the critical concentration of this species to initiate corrosion. Modeling analyses that considered cover thickness, chloride threshold concentration, reinforcement size and shape, and coarse aggregate type and percolation confirmed the experimental findings. The results, at least in part, account for the relatively wide spread in chloride corrosion threshold values reported in the literature and illustrate that more consistent chloride threshold concentrations can be acquired from mortar or paste specimens than from concrete ones.

  6. Near-atomic structural model for bacterial DNA replication initiation complex and its functional insights.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shimizu, Masahiro; Noguchi, Yasunori; Sakiyama, Yukari; Kawakami, Hironori; Katayama, Tsutomu; Takada, Shoji

    2016-12-13

    Upon DNA replication initiation in Escherichia coli, the initiator protein DnaA forms higher-order complexes with the chromosomal origin oriC and a DNA-bending protein IHF. Although tertiary structures of DnaA and IHF have previously been elucidated, dynamic structures of oriC-DnaA-IHF complexes remain unknown. Here, combining computer simulations with biochemical assays, we obtained models at almost-atomic resolution for the central part of the oriC-DnaA-IHF complex. This complex can be divided into three subcomplexes; the left and right subcomplexes include pentameric DnaA bound in a head-to-tail manner and the middle subcomplex contains only a single DnaA. In the left and right subcomplexes, DnaA ATPases associated with various cellular activities (AAA+) domain III formed helices with specific structural differences in interdomain orientations, provoking a bend in the bound DNA. In the left subcomplex a continuous DnaA chain exists, including insertion of IHF into the DNA looping, consistent with the DNA unwinding function of the complex. The intervening spaces in those subcomplexes are crucial for DNA unwinding and loading of DnaB helicases. Taken together, this model provides a reasonable near-atomic level structural solution of the initiation complex, including the dynamic conformations and spatial arrangements of DnaA subcomplexes.

  7. Sensitivity of modelled channel network formation to environmental conditions and initial bathymetry

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Maanen, Barend; Coco, Giovanni; Bryan, Karin

    2010-05-01

    Estuaries show a variety of distinctive geomorphic features that reflect differences in environmental conditions, such as geological constraints, hydrodynamic forcing (e.g. tidal range, wave climate), sediment loads from the catchment, and the presence and types of both vegetation and benthic organisms. These differences yield varying patterns of sediment erosion/deposition and consequently determine the current shape of the estuary and its future evolution. Understanding how estuarine systems evolve as a function of both natural and anthropogenic drivers is still a main research topic in coastal science. Both the short- and long-term evolution of estuaries are affected by the dynamics related to tidal channel networks. Channel networks often exhibit complex morphological patterns and their initial formation is not entirely understood. Also, the subsequent evolution of channel networks can be accompanied by the development of tidal flats which provide ecologically important habitats. Despite their importance, observations of channel network formation involve large spatial and temporal scales so that detailed studies have rarely been reported. Recently, modelling approaches have been developed to study the long-term evolution of tidal basins and the associated formation of channel patterns. A model has been developed to simulate the formation of channel networks and tidal flats as a result of the interactions between hydrodynamics, sediment transport, and bed elevation change. Simulations were undertaken using idealised initial bathymetries. Flow velocities are computed using an open source numerical model (ELCOM; Estuary and Lake Computer Model) that solves the unsteady Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes equations for incompressible flow using the hydrostatic assumption. The computed flow velocities drive sediment transport, which is calculated using formulas widely adopted in sediment transport studies. Gradients in sediment transport rate yield morphological change

  8. Modeling The Shock Initiation of PBX-9501 in ALE3D

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Leininger, L; Springer, H K; Mace, J; Mas, E

    2008-07-01

    The SMIS (Specific Munitions Impact Scenario) experimental series performed at Los Alamos National Laboratory has determined the 3-dimensional shock initiation behavior of the HMX-based heterogeneous high explosive, PBX 9501. A series of finite element impact calculations have been performed in the ALE3D [1] hydrodynamic code and compared to the SMIS results to validate the code predictions. The SMIS tests use a powder gun to shoot scaled NATO standard fragments at a cylinder of PBX 9501, which has a PMMA case and a steel impact cover. The SMIS real-world shot scenario creates a unique test-bed because many of the fragments arrive at the impact plate off-center and at an angle of impact. The goal of this model validation experiments is to demonstrate the predictive capability of the Tarver-Lee Ignition and Growth (I&G) reactive flow model [2] in this fully 3-dimensional regime of Shock to Detonation Transition (SDT). The 3-dimensional Arbitrary Lagrange Eulerian hydrodynamic model in ALE3D applies the Ignition and Growth (I&G) reactive flow model with PBX 9501 parameters derived from historical 1-dimensional experimental data. The model includes the off-center and angle of impact variations seen in the experiments. Qualitatively, the ALE3D I&G calculations accurately reproduce the 'Go/No-Go' threshold of the Shock to Detonation Transition (SDT) reaction in the explosive, as well as the case expansion recorded by a high-speed optical camera. Quantitatively, the calculations show good agreement with the shock time of arrival at internal and external diagnostic pins. This exercise demonstrates the utility of the Ignition and Growth model applied in a predictive fashion for the response of heterogeneous high explosives in the SDT regime.

  9. Modeling Three-Dimensional Shock Initiation of PBX 9501 in ALE3D

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Leininger, L; Springer, H K; Mace, J; Mas, E

    2008-07-08

    A recent SMIS (Specific Munitions Impact Scenario) experimental series performed at Los Alamos National Laboratory has provided 3-dimensional shock initiation behavior of the HMX-based heterogeneous high explosive, PBX 9501. A series of finite element impact calculations have been performed in the ALE3D [1] hydrodynamic code and compared to the SMIS results to validate and study code predictions. These SMIS tests used a powder gun to shoot scaled NATO standard fragments into a cylinder of PBX 9501, which has a PMMA case and a steel impact cover. This SMIS real-world shot scenario creates a unique test-bed because (1) SMIS tests facilitate the investigation of 3D Shock to Detonation Transition (SDT) within the context of a considerable suite of diagnostics, and (2) many of the fragments arrive at the impact plate off-center and at an angle of impact. A particular goal of these model validation experiments is to demonstrate the predictive capability of the ALE3D implementation of the Tarver-Lee Ignition and Growth reactive flow model [2] within a fully 3-dimensional regime of SDT. The 3-dimensional Arbitrary Lagrange Eulerian (ALE) hydrodynamic model in ALE3D applies the Ignition and Growth (I&G) reactive flow model with PBX 9501 parameters derived from historical 1-dimensional experimental data. The model includes the off-center and angle of impact variations seen in the experiments. Qualitatively, the ALE3D I&G calculations reproduce observed 'Go/No-Go' 3D Shock to Detonation Transition (SDT) reaction in the explosive, as well as the case expansion recorded by a high-speed optical camera. Quantitatively, the calculations show good agreement with the shock time of arrival at internal and external diagnostic pins. This exercise demonstrates the utility of the Ignition and Growth model applied for the response of heterogeneous high explosives in the SDT regime.

  10. Recent Upgrades to NASA SPoRT Initialization Datasets for the Environmental Modeling System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Case, Jonathan L.; Lafontaine, Frank J.; Molthan, Andrew L.; Zavodsky, Bradley T.; Rozumalski, Robert A.

    2012-01-01

    The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center has developed several products for its NOAA/National Weather Service (NWS) partners that can initialize specific fields for local model runs within the NOAA/NWS Science and Training Resource Center Environmental Modeling System (EMS). The suite of SPoRT products for use in the EMS consists of a Sea Surface Temperature (SST) composite that includes a Lake Surface Temperature (LST) analysis over the Great Lakes, a Great Lakes sea-ice extent within the SST composite, a real-time Green Vegetation Fraction (GVF) composite, and NASA Land Information System (LIS) gridded output. This paper and companion poster describe each dataset and provide recent upgrades made to the SST, Great Lakes LST, GVF composites, and the real-time LIS runs.

  11. The Adaptive Co-Management Process: an Initial Synthesis of Representative Models and Influential Variables

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ryan Plummer

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Collaborative and adaptive approaches to environmental management have captured the attention of administrators, resource users, and scholars. Adaptive co-management builds upon these approaches to create a novel governance strategy. This paper investigates the dynamics of the adaptive co-management process and the variables that influence it. The investigation begins by summarizing analytical and causal models relevant to the adaptive co-management process. Variables that influence this process are then synthesized from diverse literatures, categorized as being exogenous or endogenous, and developed into respective analytical frameworks. In identifying commonalities among models of the adaptive co-management process and discerning influential variables, this paper provides initial insights into understanding the dynamic social process of adaptive co-management. From these insights conjectures for future inquires are offered in the conclusion.

  12. Model Analysis of Initial Hydration and Structure Forming of Portland Cement

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    The auto efficiently hydration heat arrangement and the non-contacting electrical resistivity device were used to test the thermology effect and the resistivity variation of Portland cement hydration.The structure forming model of Portland cement initial hydration was established through the systematical experiments with different cements, the amount of mixing water and the chemical admixture. The experimental results show that, the structure forming model of cement could be divided into three stages, i e, solution-solution equilibrium period, structure forming period and structure stabilizing period. Along with the increase of mixing water, the time of inflexion appeared is in advance for thermal process of cement hydration and worsened for the structure forming process. Comparison with the control specimen, adding Na2SO4 makes the minimum critical point lower, the flattening period shorter and the growing slope after stage one steeper. So the hydration and structure forming process of Portland cement could be described more exactly by applying the thermal model and the structure-forming model.

  13. Obesity-initiated metabolic syndrome promotes urinary voiding dysfunction in a mouse model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Qiqi; Babcook, Melissa A; Shukla, Sanjeev; Shankar, Eswar; Wang, Zhiping; Liu, Guiming; Erokwu, Bernadette O; Flask, Chris A; Lu, Lan; Daneshgari, Firouz; MacLennan, Gregory T; Gupta, Sanjay

    2016-08-01

    Accumulating evidences suggests that obesity and metabolic syndrome (MetS) contribute towards lower urinary tract symptoms (LUTS) through alterations in the phenotype of bladder and prostate gland. Clinical studies indicate a link between MetS and LUTS. Nevertheless, there is lack of suitable animal model(s) which could illustrate an association linking obesity to LUTS. We examined the lower urinary tract function in an obesity-initiated MetS mouse model. Male C57BL/6N wild-type and obese B6.V-Lepob/J maintained on regular diet for 28 weeks were subjected to the assessment of body weight (BW), body length (BL), waist circumference (WC), body mass index (BMI), blood glucose (BG), plasma insulin (INS), plasma leptin (LEP), total cholesterol (CHO), free fatty acid (FFA), and measurement of urinary functions. Whole animal peritoneal and subcutaneous adipose tissue measurements as well as prostate and bladder volumes were analyzed by MRI followed by histological evaluation. These parameters were used to draw correlations between MetS and LUTS. Obesity parameters such as BW, WC, and BMI were significantly higher in B6.V-Lepob/J mice compared to C57BL/6N mice (P obesity and MetS. Validation of an in vivo model may lead to understand the underlying pathophysiological mechanisms of obesity-related LUTS in humans. Prostate 76:964-976, 2016. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  14. Energetic Neutral Atom Imaging with the POLAR CEPPAD/ IPS Instrument : Initial Forward Modeling Results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henderson, M. G.; Reeves, G. D.; Moore, K. R.; Spence, H. E.; Jorgensen, A. M.; Fennell, J. F.; Blake, J. B.; Roelof, E. C.

    1999-01-01

    Although the primary function of the CEPPAD/IPS instrument on Polar is the measurement of energetic ions in-situ, it has also proven to be a very capable Energetic Neutral Atom (ENA) imager. Raw ENA images are currently being constructed on a routine basis with a temporal resolution of minutes during both active and quiet times. However, while analyses of these images by themselves provide much information on the spatial distribution and dynamics of the energetic ion population in the ring current. detailed modeling is required to extract the actual ion distributions. In this paper. we present the initial results of forward modeling an IPS ENA image obtained during a small geo-magnetic storm on June 9, 1997. The equatorial ion distribution inferred with this technique reproduces the expected large noon/midnight and dawn/dusk asymmetries. The limitations of the model are discussed and a number of modifications to the basic forward modeling technique are proposed which should significantly improve its performance in future studies.

  15. Modeling the effect of initial soil moisture on sorptivity and infiltration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stewart, Ryan; Abou Najm, Majdi; Rupp, David; Selker, John

    2016-04-01

    Soil capillarity, often associated with the parameter sorptivity, is a primary control on infiltration during short-duration rainfall and irrigation events. However, most mathematical models used to quantify capillarity are only valid for dry antecedent conditions. In this study, we examine how the capillary component of sorptivity (i.e., wetting front potential) varies with initial soil water content, and use this finding to provide a simple modification to the classic Green-Ampt sorptivity model. The modified model has many practical applications, including 1) describing the relative sorptivity of a soil at various water contents; 2) quantifying saturated hydraulic conductivity from sorptivity measurements; and 3) interpreting transient time behavior of single ring infiltration (i.e., beerkan) measurements. The model is especially useful in low permeability soils, where steady-state conditions may not be attained for hours or even days, and in shrink-swell soils, where rapid infiltration measurements are often desired so as not to induce substantial material swelling.

  16. Reflective practice groups for nurses: a consultation liaison psychiatry nursing initiative: part 1--The model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dawber, Chris

    2013-04-01

    In the present study, we outline the evolution of a process-focused reflective practice group (RPG) model for nurses working in clinical settings. The groups were initiated at Redcliffe and Caboolture hospitals by the consultation liaison psychiatry nurse and author. An associated article provides an evaluation of these RPG. The literature review identifies the key themes and theories on which the model is based, and the article outlines the process and practicalities of facilitating RPG in critical care, midwifery, and oncology specialties over a 3-year period. The model proposes that the effectiveness and sustainability of RPG arises from adequate preparation and engagement with prospective participants. Group rules, based on principles of confidentially, supportiveness, and diversity, were collaboratively developed for each group. Facilitation utilized a group-as-a-whole approach to manage process and stimulate reflection. While the purpose of RPG was a reflection on interpersonal aspects of nursing, contextual workplace issues were frequently raised in groups. Acknowledgement and containment of such issues were necessary to maintain clinical focus. The literature highlights facilitator credibility and style as crucial factors in the overall success of RPG, and it is proposed that reflective practice as a process-focused model for groups succeeds when nurse facilitators are trained in group process and receive concurrent supervision. © 2012 The Author; International Journal of Mental Health Nursing © 2012 Australian College of Mental Health Nurses Inc.

  17. Functional Sphere Profiling Reveals the Complexity of Neuroblastoma Tumor-Initiating Cell Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aurélie Coulon

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Neuroblastoma (NB is a neural crest-derived childhood tumor characterized by a remarkable phenotypic diversity, ranging from spontaneous regression to fatal metastatic disease. Although the cancer stem cell (CSC model provides a trail to characterize the cells responsible for tumor onset, the NB tumor-initiating cell (TIC has not been identified. In this study, the relevance of the CSC model in NB was investigated by taking advantage of typical functional stem cell characteristics. A predictive association was established between self-renewal, as assessed by serial sphere formation, and clinical aggressiveness in primary tumors. Moreover, cell subsets gradually selected during serial sphere culture harbored increased in vivo tumorigenicity, only highlighted in an orthotopic microenvironment. A microarray time course analysis of serial spheres passages from metastatic cells allowed us to specifically “profile” the NB stem cell-like phenotype and to identify CD133, ABC transporter, and WNT and NOTCH genes as spheres markers. On the basis of combined sphere markers expression, at least two distinct tumorigenic cell subpopulations were identified, also shown to preexist in primary NB. However, sphere markers-mediated cell sorting of parental tumor failed to recapitulate the TIC phenotype in the orthotopic model, highlighting the complexity of the CSC model. Our data support the NB stem-like cells as a dynamic and heterogeneous cell population strongly dependent on microenvironmental signals and add novel candidate genes as potential therapeutic targets in the control of high-risk NB.

  18. An EMQ inventory model for defective products involving rework and sales team's initiatives-dependent demand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Priyan, S.; Uthayakumar, R.

    2015-07-01

    This paper investigates the issue of an economic manufacturing quantity model for defective products involving imperfect production processes and rework. We consider that the demand is sensitive to promotional efforts/sales teams' initiatives as well as the setup cost can be reduced through further investment. It also assumes that fixed quantity multiple installments of the finished batch are delivered to customers at a fixed interval of time. The long-run average cost function is derived and its convexity is proved via differential calculus. An effective iterative solution procedure is developed to achieve optimal replenishment lot-size, setup cost and the initiatives of sales teams so that the total cost of system is minimized. Numerical and sensitivity analyses are performed to evaluate the outcome of the proposed solution procedure presented in this research.

  19. Initial partonic eccentricity fluctuations in a multi-phase transport model

    CERN Document Server

    Ma, L; Ma, Y G

    2016-01-01

    Initial partonic eccentricities in Au+Au collisions at center-of-mass energy $\\sqrt{s_{NN}}$ = 200 GeV are investigated using a multi-phase transport model with string melting scenario. The initial eccentricities in different order of harmonics are studied using participant and cumulant definitions. Eccentricity in terms of second-, fourth- and sixth order cumulants as a function of number of participant nucleons are compared systematically with the traditional participant definition. The ratio of the cumulant eccentricities $\\varepsilon\\left\\{4\\right\\}/\\varepsilon\\left\\{2\\right\\}$ and $\\varepsilon\\left\\{6\\right\\}/\\varepsilon\\left\\{4\\right\\}$ are studied in comparison with the ratio of the corresponding flow harmonics. The conversion coefficients ($v_n/\\varepsilon_n$) are explored up to fourth order harmonic based on cumulant method. Furthermore, studies on transverse momentum ($p_T$) and pseudo-rapidity ($\\eta$) dependencies of eccentricities and their fluctuations are presented. As in ideal hydrodynamics in...

  20. Model Predictive Control of Nonlinear Systems: Stability Region and Feasible Initial Control

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Xiao-Bing Hu; Wen-Hua Chen

    2007-01-01

    This paper proposes a new method for model predictive control (MPC) of nonlinear systems to calculate stability region and feasible initial control profile/sequence, which are important to the implementations of MPC. Different from many existing methods,this paper distinguishes stability region from conservative terminal region. With global linearization, linear differential inclusion (LDI)and linear matrix inequality (LMI) techniques, a nonlinear system is transformed into a convex set of linear systems, and then the vertices of the set are used off-line to design the controller, to estimate stability region, and also to determine a feasible initial control profile/sequence. The advantages of the proposed method are demonstrated by simulation study.

  1. Subduction Initiation from a Stagnant Lid: New Insights from Numerical Models with a Free Surface

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crameri, Fabio; Tackley, Paul

    2016-04-01

    Subduction initiation is key in understanding the dynamic evolution of the Earth and its fundamental difference to all other rocky planetary bodies in our solar system. Despite recent progress, the question about how a stiff, mostly stagnant planetary lid can break and become part in the global overturn of the mantle is still unresolved. Here, we present results on subduction initiation obtained by dynamically self-consistent, time-dependent numerical modelling of mantle convection and single-sided subduction (Crameri et al., 2012b) using the finite-difference, multigrid code StagYY (Tackley 2008). We show that the stress distribution and resulting deformation of the lithosphere is strongly controlled by the top boundary formulation: A free surface enables surface topography and plate bending, increases gravitational sliding of the plates and leads to more realistic, lithosphere-scale shear zones. As a consequence, subduction initiation induced by regional mantle flow is significantly favoured by a free surface compared to the commonly-applied, vertically-fixed (i.e., free-slip) surface. In addition, we present global, three-dimensional mantle convection experiments (see e.g. Crameri and Tackley, 2014) that employ basal heating that leads to narrow mantle plumes. Narrow mantle plumes impinging on the base of the plate cause locally weak plate segments and a large topography at the lithosphere-asthenosphere boundary. Both are shown to be key to induce subduction initiation. Finally, our model self-consistently reproduces an episodic lid with a fast global overturn due to the hotter mantle developed below a former stagnant lid. We conclude that once in a stagnant-lid mode, a planet (like Venus) thus preferentially evolves by temporally discrete, global overturn events rather than by a continuous recycling of lid. REFERENCES Crameri, F, Tackley, P.J, Meilick, I, Gerya, T.V, Kaus, B.J.P (2012) A free plate surface and weak oceanic crust produce single-sided subduction

  2. Escalation scenarios initiated by gas explosions on offshore installations. Probabilistic cause and consequence modelling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eknes, Monika Loeland

    1996-12-31

    This Dr. ing. thesis deals with escalation scenarios initiated by gas explosions on offshore installations. Gas explosions is one of the major hazards to such installations. The objectives were to estimate the probability of ignition and frequency of gas explosions for gas leaks on top sides of offshore installations, and to estimate the response and resistance of components that could result in escalation if they failed. Main fields considered cover risk analysis methodology, gas explosions, simplified escalation models, evaluation of structural consequences, case studies, and guidelines. 107 refs., 33 figs., 33 tabs.

  3. A 3D model describing the initial structure of an artificial hydrological catchment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maurer, T.; Schneider, A.; Buczko, U.; Gerke, H. H.

    2009-04-01

    The initial development stages of artificially constructed hydrologic catchments are characterized by the absence of vegetation, soil organic matter and soil horizons. This results in increased surface runoff and favors erosion processes that dominate the initial phase. Hydraulic conditions on artificial catchments thus are governed by rapidly changing surface structures as well as by the primary internal structural framework. Contemporary hydrological modeling does not consider any dynamic change of relevant structural features but rather assumes a stable, invariant landscape. The objective of this study was the digital visualization and quantitative description of the initial state and its early structural dynamics, exemplified for the small artificial hydrological catchment "Huehnerwasser" near Cottbus, Germany. Photogrammetric surveys of surface and internal structural units (clay basis liner) during the construction phase provided spatially and temporally resolved data for digital elevation models (DEM). Interpolated physical and chemical soil properties obtained at a borehole grid (e.g., texture) are used for the visualization of spatial distribution of relevant (hydraulic) parameters. The data are merged in a database and visualized in the 3D-GIS application GoCAD. The specific technological construction processes determines the internal structure of the artificial catchment. Resulting differences in bulk density and texture are supposed to have considerable impact on hydraulic properties. A structure generator program was implemented to reproduce the initial structure of the sediment layer as closely as possible. Results of the digital structure generation are checked with non-invasive geophysical measurements, on-site bore holes data and off-site 2D vertical spoil exploration. The accuracy of structure generator results will be compared with predictions of different interpolation methods. Thus, the structure model will serve as a basis for deriving the 3D

  4. Premixed Combustion Simulations with a Self-Consistent Plasma Model for Initiation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sitaraman, Hariswaran; Grout, Ray

    2016-01-08

    Combustion simulations of H2-O2 ignition are presented here, with a self-consistent plasma fluid model for ignition initiation. The plasma fluid equations for a nanosecond pulsed discharge are solved and coupled with the governing equations of combustion. The discharge operates with the propagation of cathode directed streamer, with radical species produced at streamer heads. These radical species play an important role in the ignition process. The streamer propagation speeds and radical production rates were found to be sensitive to gas temperature and fuel-oxidizer equivalence ratio. The oxygen radical production rates strongly depend on equivalence ratio and subsequently results in faster ignition of leaner mixtures.

  5. The benchmark aeroelastic models program: Description and highlights of initial results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bennett, Robert M.; Eckstrom, Clinton V.; Rivera, Jose A., Jr.; Dansberry, Bryan E.; Farmer, Moses G.; Durham, Michael H.

    1992-01-01

    An experimental effort was implemented in aeroelasticity called the Benchmark Models Program. The primary purpose of this program is to provide the necessary data to evaluate computational fluid dynamic codes for aeroelastic analysis. It also focuses on increasing the understanding of the physics of unsteady flows and providing data for empirical design. An overview is given of this program and some results obtained in the initial tests are highlighted. The tests that were completed include measurement of unsteady pressures during flutter of a rigid wing with an NACA 0012 airfoil section and dynamic response measurements of a flexible rectangular wing with a thick circular arc airfoil undergoing shock boundary layer oscillations.

  6. Runoff-generated debris flows: observations and modeling of surge initiation, magnitude, and frequency

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kean, Jason W.; McCoy, Scott W.; Tucker, Gregory E.; Staley, Dennis M.; Coe, Jeffrey A.

    2013-01-01

    Runoff during intense rainstorms plays a major role in generating debris flows in many alpine areas and burned steeplands. Yet compared to debris flow initiation from shallow landslides, the mechanics by which runoff generates a debris flow are less understood. To better understand debris flow initiation by surface water runoff, we monitored flow stage and rainfall associated with debris flows in the headwaters of two small catchments: a bedrock-dominated alpine basin in central Colorado (0.06 km2) and a recently burned area in southern California (0.01 km2). We also obtained video footage of debris flow initiation and flow dynamics from three cameras at the Colorado site. Stage observations at both sites display distinct patterns in debris flow surge characteristics relative to rainfall intensity (I). We observe small, quasiperiodic surges at low I; large, quasiperiodic surges at intermediate I; and a single large surge followed by small-amplitude fluctuations about a more steady high flow at high I. Video observations of surge formation lead us to the hypothesis that these flow patterns are controlled by upstream variations in channel slope, in which low-gradient sections act as “sediment capacitors,” temporarily storing incoming bed load transported by water flow and periodically releasing the accumulated sediment as a debris flow surge. To explore this hypothesis, we develop a simple one-dimensional morphodynamic model of a sediment capacitor that consists of a system of coupled equations for water flow, bed load transport, slope stability, and mass flow. This model reproduces the essential patterns in surge magnitude and frequency with rainfall intensity observed at the two field sites and provides a new framework for predicting the runoff threshold for debris flow initiation in a burned or alpine setting.

  7. Modelling IHE Main Charge Initiation Trains based on HMX and TATB based Booster Charges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drake, Rodney; Maisey, Matthew

    2015-06-01

    There is always a requirement to reduce the size of initiation trains. However, as the size is reduced the performance characteristics may be compromised. To enable compact and robust initiation trains to be designed requires a detailed science-based understanding of the processes (for example, growth to detonation) which determine the performance characteristics. A numerical modelling study has been performed to understand the designs of initiation trains comprising flyer plate detonator, booster charge and an IHE main charge. The effect of the flyer plate diameter on the distance required to establish uniformly diverging detonation waves in HMX and TATB based booster charges has been studied. Numerical simulations have also examined the effect of the relative sizes of the booster and IHE main charge on the distance required for a stable detonation front to be established in the main charge for both HMX and TATB based booster charges. The implications of the numerical simulations are discussed in terms of the design of initiation trains for IHE main charge systems.

  8. Rayleigh wave modeling: A study of dispersion curve sensitivity and methodology for calculating an initial model to be included in an inversion algorithm

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Lucena, Rodrigo F.; Taioli, Fabio

    2014-09-01

    This paper presents a study on Rayleigh wave modeling. After model implementation using Matlab software, unpublished studies were conducted of dispersion curve sensitivity to percentage changes in parameter values, including S- and P-wave velocities, substrate density, and layer thickness. The study of the sensitivity of dispersion curves demonstrated that parameters such as S-wave velocity and layer thickness cannot be ignored as inversion parameters, while P-wave velocity and density can be considered as known parameters since their influence is minimal. However, the results showed limitations that should be considered and overcome when choosing the known and unknown parameters through determining a good initial model or/and by gathering a priori information. A methodology considering the sensitivity study of dispersion curves was developed and evaluated to generate initial values (initial model) to be included in the local search inversion algorithm, clearly establishing initial favorable conditions for data inversion.

  9. Initial construction of a maladaptive personality trait model and inventory for DSM-5.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krueger, R F; Derringer, J; Markon, K E; Watson, D; Skodol, A E

    2012-09-01

    DSM-IV-TR suggests that clinicians should assess clinically relevant personality traits that do not necessarily constitute a formal personality disorder (PD), and should note these traits on Axis II, but DSM-IV-TR does not provide a trait model to guide the clinician. Our goal was to provide a provisional trait model and a preliminary corresponding assessment instrument, in our roles as members of the DSM-5 Personality and Personality Disorders Workgroup and workgroup advisors. An initial list of specific traits and domains (broader groups of traits) was derived from DSM-5 literature reviews and workgroup deliberations, with a focus on capturing maladaptive personality characteristics deemed clinically salient, including those related to the criteria for DSM-IV-TR PDs. The model and instrument were then developed iteratively using data from community samples of treatment-seeking participants. The analytic approach relied on tools of modern psychometrics (e.g. item response theory models). A total of 25 reliably measured core elements of personality description emerged that, together, delineate five broad domains of maladaptive personality variation: negative affect, detachment, antagonism, disinhibition, and psychoticism. We developed a maladaptive personality trait model and corresponding instrument as a step on the path toward helping users of DSM-5 assess traits that may or may not constitute a formal PD. The inventory we developed is reprinted in its entirety in the Supplementary online material, with the goal of encouraging additional refinement and development by other investigators prior to the finalization of DSM-5. Continuing discussion should focus on various options for integrating personality traits into DSM-5.

  10. Experimental investigation of initial steps of helix propagation in model peptides.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goch, Grazyna; Maciejczyk, Maciej; Oleszczuk, Marta; Stachowiak, Damian; Malicka, Joanna; Bierzyński, Andrzej

    2003-06-10

    It is not certain whether the helix propagation parameters s(n)() (i.e., the equilibrium constants between (n - 1)- and n-residue long alpha-helices) determined from numerous studies of rather long model peptides are applicable for description of the initial steps of the helix formation during the protein folding process. From fluorescence, NMR, and calorimetric studies of a series of model peptides, containing the La(3+)-binding sequence nucleating the helix (Siedlecka, M., Goch, G., Ejchart, A., Sticht, H., and Bierzynski, A. (1999) Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 96, 903-908), we have determined, at 25 degrees C, the average values of the enthalpy DeltaH(n)() and of the helix growth parameters s(n)() describing the first four steps of helix propagation in polyalanine. The absolute values of the C-cap parameters, describing the contribution of the C-terminal residues to the helix free energy, have also been estimated for alanine (1.2 +/- 0.5) and NH(2) group (1.6 +/- 0.7). The initial four steps of the helix growth in polyalanine can be described by a common propagation parameter s = 1.54 +/- 0.04. The enthalpy DeltaH(n)() is also constant and equals -980 +/- 100 cal mol(-)(1).

  11. 'Initial' Soil Moisture Effects on the Climate in China——A Regional Climate Model Study

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SHI Xueli

    2009-01-01

    In this study, the effects of 'initial' soil moisture (SM) in arid and semi-arid Northwestern China on subsequent climate were investigated with a regional climate model. Besides the control simulations (denoted as CTL), a series of sensitivity experi-ments were conducted, including the DRY and WET experiments, in which the simulated 'initial' SM over the region 30-50°N, 75 -105°E was only 5% and 50%, and up to 150% and 200% of the simulated value in the CTL, respectively. The results show that SM change can modify the subsequent climate in not only the SM-change region proper but also the far downstream regions in Eastern and even Northeastern China. The SM-change effects are generally more prominent in the WET than in the DRY experiments. After the SM is initially increased, the SM in the SM-change region is always higher than that in the CTL, the latent (sensible) heat flux there increases (decreases), and the surface air temperature decreases. Spatially, the most prominent changes in the WET experiments are surface air temperature decrease, geopotential height decrease and corresponding abnormal changes of cyclonic wind vectors at the mid-upper troposphere levels. Generally opposite effects exist in the DRY experiments but with much weaker intensity. In addi-tion, the differences between the results obtained from the two sets of sensitivity experiments and those of the CTL are not always consistent with the variation of the initial SM. Being different from the variation of temperature, the rainfall modifications caused by initial SM change are not so distinct and in fact they show some common features in the WET and DRY experiments. This might imply that SM is only one of the factors that impact the subsequent climate, and its effect is involved in complex processes within the atmosphere, which needs further investigation.

  12. Instrumental record of debris flow initiation during natural rainfall: Implications for modeling slope stability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montgomery, D.R.; Schmidt, K.M.; Dietrich, W.E.; McKean, J.

    2009-01-01

    The middle of a hillslope hollow in the Oregon Coast Range failed and mobilized as a debris flow during heavy rainfall in November 1996. Automated pressure transducers recorded high spatial variability of pore water pressure within the area that mobilized as a debris flow, which initiated where local upward flow from bedrock developed into overlying colluvium. Postfailure observations of the bedrock surface exposed in the debris flow scar reveal a strong spatial correspondence between elevated piezometric response and water discharging from bedrock fractures. Measurements of apparent root cohesion on the basal (Cb) and lateral (Cl) scarp demonstrate substantial local variability, with areally weighted values of Cb = 0.1 and Cl = 4.6 kPa. Using measured soil properties and basal root strength, the widely used infinite slope model, employed assuming slope parallel groundwater flow, provides a poor prediction of hydrologie conditions at failure. In contrast, a model including lateral root strength (but neglecting lateral frictional strength) gave a predicted critical value of relative soil saturation that fell within the range defined by the arithmetic and geometric mean values at the time of failure. The 3-D slope stability model CLARA-W, used with locally observed pore water pressure, predicted small areas with lower factors of safety within the overall slide mass at sites consistent with field observations of where the failure initiated. This highly variable and localized nature of small areas of high pore pressure that can trigger slope failure means, however, that substantial uncertainty appears inevitable for estimating hydrologie conditions within incipient debris flows under natural conditions. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

  13. LOW AMPLITUDE SINGLE AND MULTIPLE SHOCK INITIATION EXPERIMENTS AND MODELING OF LX-04

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vandersall, K S; Tarver, C M; Garcia, F; Chidester, S; Urtiew, P A; Forbes, J W

    2006-06-27

    Shock initiation experiments were performed on the plastic bonded explosive (PBX) LX-04 (85% HMX, 15% Viton binder) using single and multiple low amplitude shocks to obtain pressure history data for use in Ignition and Growth reactive flow modeling parameterization. A 100 mm diameter propellant driven gas gun was utilized to initiate the LX-04 explosive charges containing manganin piezoresistive pressure gauge packages placed between explosive discs. In the single shock experiments, the run distances to detonation at three shock pressures showed agreement with previously published data above 3 GPa. Even longer run distances to detonation were measured using 80 mm long by 145 mm diameter LX-04 charges impacted by low velocity projectiles from a 155 mm diameter gun. The minimum shock pressure required to cause low levels of exothermic reaction were determined for these large LX-04 charge dimensions. Multiple shocks were generated as double shocks by using a flyer plate with two materials and as reflected shocks by placing a high impedance material at the rear of the explosive charge. In both cases, the first shock pressure was not high enough to cause detonation of LX-04, and the second shock pressure, which would have been sufficient to cause detonation if generated by a single shock, failed to cause detonation. Thus LX-04 exhibited shock desensitization over a range of 0.6 to 1.4 GPa. The higher shock pressure LX-04 model was extended to accurately simulate these lower pressure and multiple shock gauge records. The shock desensitization effects observed with multiple shock compressions were partially accounted for in the model by using a critical compression corresponding to a shock pressure of 1.2 GPa. This shock desensitization effect occurs at higher pressures than those of other HMX-based PBX's containing higher HMX percentages.

  14. The Impact of 3D Data Quality on Improving GNSS Performance Using City Models Initial Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellul, C.; Adjrad, M.; Groves, P.

    2016-10-01

    There is an increasing demand for highly accurate positioning information in urban areas, to support applications such as people and vehicle tracking, real-time air quality detection and navigation. However systems such as GPS typically perform poorly in dense urban areas. A number of authors have made use of 3D city models to enhance accuracy, obtaining good results, but to date the influence of the quality of the 3D city model on these results has not been tested. This paper addresses the following question: how does the quality, and in particular the variation in height, level of generalization and completeness and currency of a 3D dataset, impact the results obtained for the preliminary calculations in a process known as Shadow Matching, which takes into account not only where satellite signals are visible on the street but also where they are predicted to be absent. We describe initial simulations to address this issue, examining the variation in elevation angle - i.e. the angle above which the satellite is visible, for three 3D city models in a test area in London, and note that even within one dataset using different available height values could cause a difference in elevation angle of up to 29°. Missing or extra buildings result in an elevation variation of around 85°. Variations such as these can significantly influence the predicted satellite visibility which will then not correspond to that experienced on the ground, reducing the accuracy of the resulting Shadow Matching process.

  15. A community initiative for developing data and modeling driven curriculum modules for hydrology education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruddell, B. L.; Merwade, V.

    2010-12-01

    Hydrology and geoscience education at the undergraduate and graduate levels may benefit greatly from a structured approach to pedagogy that utilizes modeling, authentic data, and simulation exercises to engage students in practice-like activities. Extensive evidence in the educational literature suggests that students retain more of their instruction, and attain higher levels of mastery over content, when interactive and practice-like activities are used to contextualize traditional lecture-based and theory-based instruction. However, it is also important that these activities carefully link the use of data and modeling to abstract theory, to promote transfer of knowledge to other contexts. While this type of data-based activity has been practiced in the hydrology classroom for decades, the hydrology community still lacks a set of standards and a mechanism for community-based development, publication, and review of this type of curriculum material. A community-based initiative is underway to develop a set curriculum materials to teach hydrology in the engineering and geoscience university classroom using outcomes-based, pedagogically rigorous modules that use authentic data and modeling experiences to complement traditional lecture-based instruction. A preliminary design for a community cyberinfrastructure for shared module development and publication, and for module topics and outcomes and ametadata and module interoperability standards, will be presented, along with the results of a series of community surveys and workshops informing this design.

  16. Conformal models of de Sitter space, initial conditions for inflation and the CMB

    CERN Document Server

    Lasenby, A; Lasenby, Anthony; Doran, Chris

    2004-01-01

    Conformal embedding of closed-universe models in a de Sitter background suggests a quantisation condition on the available conformal time. This condition implies that the universe is closed at no greater than the 10% level. When a massive scalar field is introduced to drive an inflationary phase this figure is reduced to closure at nearer the 1% level. In order to enforce the constraint on the available conformal time we need to consider conditions in the universe before the onset of inflation. A formal series around the initial singularity is constructed, which rests on a pair of dimensionless, scale-invariant parameters. For physically-acceptable models we find that both parameters are of order unity, so no fine tuning is required, except in the mass of the scalar field. For typical values of the input parameters we predict the observed values of the cosmological parameters, including the magnitude of the cosmological constant. The model produces a very good fit to the most recent CMBR data, predicting a lo...

  17. Estimating initial conditions for groundwater flow modeling using an adaptive inverse method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hassane Maina, F.; Delay, F.; Ackerer, P.

    2017-09-01

    Due to continuous increases in water demand, the need for seasonal forecasts of available groundwater resources becomes inevitable. Hydrogeological models might provide a valuable tool for this kind of resource management. Because predictions over short time horizons are foreseen, the reliability of model outputs depends on accurate estimates of the initial conditions (ICs), as well as the estimated parameter values, boundary conditions and forcing terms (e.g., recharge, as well as sinks and sources). Here, we provide an inverse procedure for estimating these ICs. The procedure is based on an adaptive parameterization of the ICs that limits over-parameterization and involves the minimization of an ad hoc objective function. The quasi-Newton algorithm is used for the minimization, and the gradients are computed with an adjoint-state method. Two test cases based on a real aquifer that are designed to evaluate the capability of the method were addressed. It is assumed that the boundary conditions, hydraulic parameters and forcing terms are known from an existing hydrogeological model. In both test cases, the proposed method was quite successful in estimating the ICs and predicting head values that were not used in the calibration. 50 calibrations for each test case have been performed to quantify the reliability of the predictions.

  18. Cirrus Parcel Model Comparison Project. Phase 1: The Critical Components to Simulate Cirrus Initiation Explicitly.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Ruei-Fong; O'C. Starr, David; Demott, Paul J.; Cotton, Richard; Sassen, Kenneth; Jensen, Eric; Kärcher, Bernd; Liu, Xiaohong

    2002-08-01

    The Cirrus Parcel Model Comparison Project, a project of the GCSS [Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) Cloud System Studies] Working Group on Cirrus Cloud Systems, involves the systematic comparison of current models of ice crystal nucleation and growth for specified, typical, cirrus cloud environments. In Phase 1 of the project reported here, simulated cirrus cloud microphysical properties from seven models are compared for `warm' (40°C) and `cold' (60°C) cirrus, each subject to updrafts of 0.04, 0.2, and 1 m s1. The models employ explicit microphysical schemes wherein the size distribution of each class of particles (aerosols and ice crystals) is resolved into bins or the evolution of each individual particle is traced. Simulations are made including both homogeneous and heterogeneous ice nucleation mechanisms (all-mode simulations). A single initial aerosol population of sulfuric acid particles is prescribed for all simulations. Heterogeneous nucleation is disabled for a second parallel set of simulations in order to isolate the treatment of the homogeneous freezing (of haze droplets) nucleation process. Analysis of these latter simulations is the primary focus of this paper.Qualitative agreement is found for the homogeneous-nucleation-only simulations; for example, the number density of nucleated ice crystals increases with the strength of the prescribed updraft. However, significant quantitative differences are found. Detailed analysis reveals that the homogeneous nucleation rate, haze particle solution concentration, and water vapor uptake rate by ice crystal growth (particularly as controlled by the deposition coefficient) are critical components that lead to differences in the predicted microphysics.Systematic differences exist between results based on a modified classical theory approach and models using an effective freezing temperature approach to the treatment of nucleation. Each method is constrained by critical freezing data from

  19. Model-Based Reasoning in the Physics Laboratory: Framework and Initial Results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zwickl, Benjamin M.; Hu, Dehui; Finkelstein, Noah; Lewandowski, H. J.

    2015-01-01

    We review and extend existing frameworks on modeling to develop a new framework that describes model-based reasoning in introductory and upper-division physics laboratories. Constructing and using models are core scientific practices that have gained significant attention within K-12 and higher education. Although modeling is a broadly applicable…

  20. Solving the initial condition of the string relaxation equation of the string model for glass transition: part-Ⅱ

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zhang Jin-Lu; Wang Li-Na; Zhao Xing-Yu; Zhang Li-Li; Zhou Heng-Wei; Wei Lai; Huang Yi-Neng

    2011-01-01

    The string model for the glass transition can quantitatively describe the universal α-relaxation in glassformers. The string relaxation equation (SRE) of the model simplifies the well-known Debye and Rouse-Zimm relaxation equations at high and low enough temperatures, respectively. However, its initial condition, necessary to the further model predictions of glassy dynamics, has not been solved. In this paper, the general initial condition of the SRE for stochastically spatially configurative strings is solved exactly based on the obtained special initial condition of the SRE for straight strings in a previous paper (J. L. Zhang et al. 2010 Chin. Phya. B 19, 056403).

  1. Investigating the initial stages of soil formation in glacier forefields using the new biogeochemical model: SHIMMER

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bradley, James; Anesio, Alexandre; Arndt, Sandra; Sabacka, Marie; Barker, Gary; Benning, Liane; Blacker, Joshua; Singarayer, Joy; Tranter, Martyn; Yallop, Marian

    2016-04-01

    observations from chronosequences from the forefield of Midtre Lovénbreen, Svalbard (78°N), to investigate the first 120 years of soil development. We carried out an in depth analysis of the model dynamics and determined the most sensitive parameters. We then used laboratory measurements to derive values for those parameters: bacterial growth rate, growth efficiency and temperature dependency. By applying the model to the High-Arctic forefield and integrating the measured parameter values, we could refine the model and easily predict the rapid accumulation of microbial biomass that was observed in our field data. Furthermore, we show that the bacterial production is dominated by autotrophy (rather than heterotrophy). Heterotrophic production in young soils (0-20 years) is supported by labile substrate, whereas carbon stocks in older soils (60-120 years) are more refractory. Nitrogen fixing organisms are responsible for the initial accumulation of available nitrates in the soil. However, microbial processes alone do not explain the build-up of organic matter observed in the field data record. Consequently, the model infers that allochthonous deposition of organic material may play a significant contributory role that could accelerate or facilitate further microbial growth. SHIMMER provides a quantitative evaluation on the dynamics of glacier forefield systems that have previously largely been explored through qualitative interpretation of datasets. References Bradley J.A., Singarayer J.S., Anesio A.M. (2014) Microbial community dynamics in the forefield of glaciers. Proceedings Biological sciences / The Royal Society 281(1795), 2793-2802. (doi:10.1098/rspb.2014.0882). Bradley J.A., Anesio A.M., Singarayer J.S., Heath M.R., Arndt S. (2015) SHIMMER (1.0): a novel mathematical model for microbial and biogeochemical dynamics in glacier forefield ecosystems. Geosci Model Dev 8(10), 3441-3470. (doi:10.5194/gmd-8-3441-2015).

  2. Accessible integration of agriculture, groundwater, and economic models using the Open Modeling Interface (OpenMI: methodology and initial results

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Bulatewicz

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Policy for water resources impacts not only hydrological processes, but the closely intertwined economic and social processes dependent on them. Understanding these process interactions across domains is an important step in establishing effective and sustainable policy. Multidisciplinary integrated models can provide insight to inform this understanding, though the extent of software development necessary is often prohibitive, particularly for small teams of researchers. Thus there is a need for practical methods for building interdisciplinary integrated models that do not incur a substantial development effort. In this work we adopt the strategy of linking individual domain models together to build a multidisciplinary integrated model. The software development effort is minimized through the reuse of existing models and existing model-linking tools without requiring any changes to the model source codes, and linking these components through the use of the Open Modeling Interface (OpenMI. This was found to be an effective approach to building an agricultural-groundwater-economic integrated model for studying the effects of water policy in irrigated agricultural systems. The construction of the integrated model provided a means to evaluate the impacts of two alternative water-use policies aimed at reducing irrigated water use to sustainable levels in the semi-arid grasslands overlying the Ogallala Aquifer of the Central US. The results show how both the economic impact in terms of yield and revenue and the environmental impact in terms of groundwater level vary spatially throughout the study region for each policy. Accessible integration strategies are necessary if the practice of interdisciplinary integrated simulation is to become widely adopted.

  3. Solutions Stability of Initial Boundary Problem, Modeling of Dynamics of Some Discrete Continuum Mechanical System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. A. Eliseev

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The solution stability of an initial boundary problem for a linear hybrid system of differential equations, which models the rotation of a rigid body with two elastic rods located in the same plane is studied in the paper. To an axis passing through the mass center of the rigid body perpendicularly to the rods location plane is applied the stabilizing moment proportional to the angle of the system rotation, derivative of the angle, integral of the angle. The external moment provides a feedback. A method of studying the behavior of solutions of the initial boundary problem is proposed. This method allows to exclude from the hybrid system of differential equations partial differential equations, which describe the dynamics of distributed elements of a mechanical system. It allows us to build one equation for an angle of the system rotation. Its characteristic equation defines the stability of solutions of all the system. In the space of feedback-coefficients the areas that provide the asymptotic stability of solutions of the initial boundary problem are built up.

  4. A numerical model of initial recombination for high-LET irradiation: Application to liquid-filled ionization chambers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aguiar, P.; Pardo-Montero, J.

    2016-02-01

    In this paper we present a numerical model of initial recombination in media irradiated with high linear energy transfer (LET) ions, which relies on an amorphous track model of ionization of high LET particles, and diffusion, drift and recombination of ionized charge carriers. The model has fundamental applications for the study of recombination in non-polar liquids, as well as practical ones, like in modelling hadrontherapy dosimetry with ionization chambers. We have used it to study the response of liquid-filled ionization chambers to hadrontherapy beams: dependence of initial recombination on ion species, energy and applied external electric field.

  5. From Family Based to Industrial Based Production: Local Economic Development Initiatives and the HELIX Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bartjan W Pennink

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available To build a strong local economy, good practice tells us that each community should undertake a collaborative, strategically planned process to understand and then act upon its own strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats. From this perspective we start with the local communities but how is this related to the perspective from the Helix model in which three actors are explicitly introduced: the Government, the Industry and the Universities? The purpose of local economic development (LED is to build up the economic capacity of a local area to improve its economic future and the quality of life for all. To support  the Local Economic Development in remote areas,   a program  has been developed based on the LED frame work of the world bank. This approach and  the experiences over  the past years with this program are  described in the first part.  In the second part of the paper, We analyse work done with that program with the help of the social capital concept and the triple helix model.  In all cases it is important to pay attention to who is taken the initiative after the first move (and it is not always the governance as actor and for the triple helix we suggest  that the concepts of (national Government, Industry and University need a translation to Local Governance Agency, Cooperation or other ways of cooperation of local communities and Local Universities. Although a push from outside might help  a local region in development the endogenous factors are  also needed. Keywords: Triple Helix model, Local Economic Development, Local Actors, Double Triangle within the Helix Model

  6. Bias Correction for climate impact modeling within the framework of the HAPPI Initiative

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saeed, Fahad; Lange, Stefan; Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich

    2017-04-01

    In its landmark Paris Agreement of 2015, the Conference of the Parties of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the IPCC to prepare a special report "on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related greenhouse gas emission pathways" by 2018. Unfortunately, most current experiments (including Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP)), are not specifically designed for making a substantial contribution to this report. To fill this gap, the HAPPI (Half a degree Additional warming, Projection, Prognosis and Impacts) initiative has been designed to assess climate projections, and in particular extreme weather, at present day and in worlds that are 1.5°C and 2.0°C warmer than pre-industrial conditions? Global Climate Model (GCM) output for HAPPI will be utilized to assess climate impacts with a range of sectorial climate impact models. Before the use of climate data as input for sectorial impact models, statistical bias correction is commonly applied to correct climate model data for systematic deviations of the simulated historic data from observations and to increase the accuracy of the projections. Different approaches have been adopted for this purpose, however the most common are the one based on transfer functions generated to map the distribution of the simulated historical data to that of the observations. In the current study, we presented results for a novel bias correction method developed for Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2b (ISIMIP2b) applied to output of different GCMs generated within the HAPPI project. The results indicate that the application of bias correction has shown substantial improvement in the results when we compared to observational data. Besides the marked improvement in seasonal mean differences for different variables, also the output for extreme event indicators is considerably improved. We conclude that the applied application of bias

  7. Numerical modeling of initiation of lightning leaders from tall structures by sprite-producing lightning discharges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pasko, V. P.

    2011-12-01

    It is well established by now that large charge transfers between cloud and ground in positive cloud-to-ground lightning discharges (+CGs) can lead to transient electric field enhancements at mesospheric and lower ionospheric altitudes. In these events the electric field can exceed the conventional breakdown field and lead to formation of transient luminous events referred to as sprites and sprite halos [e.g., Qin et al., JGR, 116, A06305, 2011, and references therein]. Stanley and Heavner [Proc. 12th International Conference on Atmospheric Electricity, Versailles, France, 2003] reported that the large and rapid charge transfer of +CGs producing sprites can also initiate upward positive leaders from tall structures. These authors also presented data analysis indicating that structures with >400 m height have a significantly enhanced probability of launching upward positive leaders that may culminate in a -CG return stroke to the structure. The effect can be understood by considering the field intensification at the top of the tall structure combined with fast application of the field preventing formation and shielding effects of ion corona [Brook et al., JGR, 66, 3967, 1961]. In the present work we utilize the most recent modeling approaches developed at Penn State [e.g., Riousset et al., JGR, 115, A00E10, 2010] to quantify the conditions leading to initiation of positive leaders from tall structures following sprite-producing +CGs. Experiments show that the streamer zone transforms into leader when voltage drop along the streamer zone exceeds 400 kV [e.g., Aleksandrov et al., J. Phys. D: Appl. Phys., 38, 1225, 2005]. For a formed leader half of the voltage drops in the streamer zone, and another half in free space ahead of the streamer zone [Bazelyan and Raizer, Lightning physics and lightning protection, p. 62, 2000]. In our analysis therefore we assume that minimum voltage at the tip of the tower should exceed 800 kV for sustainment of upward propagating leader

  8. The AgMIP GRIDded Crop Modeling Initiative (AgGRID) and the Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison (GGCMI)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elliott, Joshua; Muller, Christoff

    2015-01-01

    Climate change is a significant risk for agricultural production. Even under optimistic scenarios for climate mitigation action, present-day agricultural areas are likely to face significant increases in temperatures in the coming decades, in addition to changes in precipitation, cloud cover, and the frequency and duration of extreme heat, drought, and flood events (IPCC, 2013). These factors will affect the agricultural system at the global scale by impacting cultivation regimes, prices, trade, and food security (Nelson et al., 2014a). Global-scale evaluation of crop productivity is a major challenge for climate impact and adaptation assessment. Rigorous global assessments that are able to inform planning and policy will benefit from consistent use of models, input data, and assumptions across regions and time that use mutually agreed protocols designed by the modeling community. To ensure this consistency, large-scale assessments are typically performed on uniform spatial grids, with spatial resolution of typically 10 to 50 km, over specified time-periods. Many distinct crop models and model types have been applied on the global scale to assess productivity and climate impacts, often with very different results (Rosenzweig et al., 2014). These models are based to a large extent on field-scale crop process or ecosystems models and they typically require resolved data on weather, environmental, and farm management conditions that are lacking in many regions (Bondeau et al., 2007; Drewniak et al., 2013; Elliott et al., 2014b; Gueneau et al., 2012; Jones et al., 2003; Liu et al., 2007; M¨uller and Robertson, 2014; Van den Hoof et al., 2011;Waha et al., 2012; Xiong et al., 2014). Due to data limitations, the requirements of consistency, and the computational and practical limitations of running models on a large scale, a variety of simplifying assumptions must generally be made regarding prevailing management strategies on the grid scale in both the baseline and

  9. Impact of high resolution land surface initialization in Indian summer monsoon simulation using a regional climate model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Unnikrishnan, C. K.; Rajeevan, M.; Rao, S. Vijaya Bhaskara

    2016-06-01

    The direct impact of high resolution land surface initialization on the forecast bias in a regional climate model in recent years over Indian summer monsoon region is investigated. Two sets of regional climate model simulations are performed, one with a coarse resolution land surface initial conditions and second one used a high resolution land surface data for initial condition. The results show that all monsoon years respond differently to the high resolution land surface initialization. The drought monsoon year 2009 and extended break periods were more sensitive to the high resolution land surface initialization. These results suggest that the drought monsoon year predictions can be improved with high resolution land surface initialization. Result also shows that there are differences in the response to the land surface initialization within the monsoon season. Case studies of heat wave and a monsoon depression simulation show that, the model biases were also improved with high resolution land surface initialization. These results show the need for a better land surface initialization strategy in high resolution regional models for monsoon forecasting.

  10. The Innovative Medicines Initiative: a Public Private Partnership Model to Foster Drug Discovery

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elisabetta Vaudano

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available The Innovative Medicines Initiative (IMI is a large-scale public–private partnership between the European Commission and the European Federation of Pharmaceutical Industries and Associations (EFPIA. IMI aims to boost the development of new medicines across Europe by implementing new collaborative endeavours between large pharmaceutical companies and other key actors in the health-care ecosystem, i.e., academic institutions, small and medium enterprises, patients, and regulatory authorities. Currently there are more than 40 IMI projects covering the whole value chain of pharmaceutical R&D, but with a strong focus on drug discovery, as an ideal arena where the PPP concept of pre-competitive collaboration can rapidly deliver results. This article review recent achievements of the IMI consortia of relevance to drug discovery, providing proof-of-concept evidence for the efficiency of this new model of collaboration.

  11. Partial Overhaul and Initial Parallel Optimization of KINETICS, a Coupled Dynamics and Chemistry Atmosphere Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nguyen, Howard; Willacy, Karen; Allen, Mark

    2012-01-01

    KINETICS is a coupled dynamics and chemistry atmosphere model that is data intensive and computationally demanding. The potential performance gain from using a supercomputer motivates the adaptation from a serial version to a parallelized one. Although the initial parallelization had been done, bottlenecks caused by an abundance of communication calls between processors led to an unfavorable drop in performance. Before starting on the parallel optimization process, a partial overhaul was required because a large emphasis was placed on streamlining the code for user convenience and revising the program to accommodate the new supercomputers at Caltech and JPL. After the first round of optimizations, the partial runtime was reduced by a factor of 23; however, performance gains are dependent on the size of the data, the number of processors requested, and the computer used.

  12. Survival rate of initial azimuthal anisotropy in a multi-phase transport model

    CERN Document Server

    Zhang, Liang; Wang, Fuqiang

    2015-01-01

    We investigate the survival rate of an initial momentum anisotropy ($v_2^{ini}$) to the final state in a multi-phase transport (AMPT) model in Au+Au collisions at $\\sqrt{s_{NN}}$=200 GeV. It is found that both the final-state parton and charged hadron $v_2$ show a linear dependence versus $v_2^{ini}$. We use the slope of this linear dependence to quantify the survival rate. It is found that the survival rate increases with transverse momentum ($p_T$), approximately linearly, reaching ~100% at $p_T$$\\sim$2.5 GeV/c for both parton and charged hadron. The survival rate decreases with collision centrality and energy. The results indicate that the survival rate decreases with increasing magnitude of interaction.

  13. THE INNOVATIVE MEDICINES INITIATIVE: A PUBLIC PRIVATE PARTNERSHIP MODEL TO FOSTER DRUG DISCOVERY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elisabetta Vaudano

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available The Innovative Medicines Initiative (IMI is a large-scale public–private partnership between the European Commission and the European Federation of Pharmaceutical Industries and Associations (EFPIA. IMI aims to boost the development of new medicines across Europe by implementing new collaborative endeavours between large pharmaceutical companies and other key actors in the health-care ecosystem, i.e., academic institutions, small and medium enterprises, patients, and regulatory authorities. Currently there are more than 40 IMI projects covering the whole value chain of pharmaceutical R&D, but with a strong focus on drug discovery, as an ideal arena where the PPP concept of pre-competitive collaboration can rapidly deliver results. This article review recent achievements of the IMI consortia of relevance to drug discovery, providing proof-of-concept evidence for the efficiency of this new model of collaboration.

  14. Deduction of initial strategy distributions of agents in mix-game models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gou, Chengling

    2006-11-01

    This paper reports the effort of deducing the initial strategy distributions (ISDs) of agents in mix-game models that is used to predict a real financial time series generated from a target financial market. Using mix-games to predict Shanghai Index, we find that the time series of prediction accurate rates is sensitive to the ISDs of agents in group 2 who play a minority game, but less sensitive to the ISDs of agents in group 1 who play a majority game. And agents in group 2 tend to cluster in full strategy space (FSS) if the real financial time series has obvious tendency (upward or downward), otherwise they tend to scatter in FSS. We also find that the ISDs and the number of agents in group 1 influence the level of prediction accurate rates. Finally, this paper gives suggestion about further research.

  15. Mine Burial Assessment State-of the Art in Prediction and Modeling Workshop and Initiation of Technical Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    2000-09-30

    Mine Burial Assessment State-of the Art in Prediction and Modeling Workshop and Initiation of Technical Program Richard H. Bennett SEAPROBE, Inc 501...Assessment State-of the Art in Prediction and Modeling Workshop and Initiation of Technical Program 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM... Technical Program , Agenda, Background, and References, Bennett and Wilkens, 2000. d. Completed Reviews of the state-of-the-art practices in Mine Burial

  16. Formal Models of Commonsense Geographic Worlds: Report on the Specialist Meeting of Research Initiative 21 (97-2)

    OpenAIRE

    Mark, David M. (David Michael), 1947-; Egenhofer, Max J.; Hornsby, Kathleen

    1997-01-01

    This report describes the outcome of the Specialist Meeting of the NCGIA Research Initiative 21 on "Formal Models of Commonsense Geographic Worlds". The meeting was held in San Marcos, TX on October 30- November 3, 1996. Research Initiative 21 is concerned with the development of formal models of commonsense geographic worlds. Discussions at the Specialist Meeting focused on the commonsense or naive geographic reasoning that people perform and whose outcome makes intuitive sense to m...

  17. Impact of rainfall spatial distribution on rainfall-runoff modelling efficiency and initial soil moisture conditions estimation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Tramblay

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available A good knowledge of rainfall is essential for hydrological operational purposes such as flood forecasting. The objective of this paper was to analyze, on a relatively large sample of flood events, how rainfall-runoff modeling using an event-based model can be sensitive to the use of spatial rainfall compared to mean areal rainfall over the watershed. This comparison was based not only on the model's efficiency in reproducing the flood events but also through the estimation of the initial conditions by the model, using different rainfall inputs. The initial conditions of soil moisture are indeed a key factor for flood modeling in the Mediterranean region. In order to provide a soil moisture index that could be related to the initial condition of the model, the soil moisture output of the Safran-Isba-Modcou (SIM model developed by Météo-France was used. This study was done in the Gardon catchment (545 km2 in South France, using uniform or spatial rainfall data derived from rain gauge and radar for 16 flood events. The event-based model considered combines the SCS runoff production model and the Lag and Route routing model. Results show that spatial rainfall increases the efficiency of the model. The advantage of using spatial rainfall is marked for some of the largest flood events. In addition, the relationship between the model's initial condition and the external predictor of soil moisture provided by the SIM model is better when using spatial rainfall, in particular when using spatial radar data with R2 values increasing from 0.61 to 0.72.

  18. Spinal microglia initiate and maintain hyperalgesia in a rat model of chronic pancreatitis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Pei-Yi; Lu, Ching-Liang; Wang, Chia-Chuan; Lee, I-Hui; Hsieh, Jen-Chuen; Chen, Chun-Chia; Lee, Hsing-Feng; Lin, Han-Chieh; Chang, Full-Young; Lee, Shou-Dong

    2012-01-01

    The chronic, persistent pain associated with chronic pancreatitis (CP) has many characteristics of neuropathic pain, initiated and maintained by the activation of spinal microglia. We investigated whether activated microglia in the thoracic spinal cord contribute to chronic pain in a rat model of CP. CP was induced in Sprague-Dawley rats by an intraductal injection of 2% trinitrobenzene sulfonic acid. Hyperalgesia was assessed by the measurement of mechanical sensitivity of the abdomen and nocifensive behavior to electrical stimulation of the pancreas. Three weeks after induction of CP, spinal samples were analyzed by immunostaining and immunoblot analyses for levels of CD11 (a marker of microglia, determined with the antibody OX42) and phosphorylated p38 (P-p38, a marker of activation of p38 mitogen-activated protein kinase signaling). We examined the effects of minocycline (inhibitor of microglia) and fractalkine (microglia-activating factor) on visceral hyperalgesia in rats with CP. Rats with CP had increased sensitivity and nociceptive behaviors to mechanical probing of the abdomen and electrical stimulation of the pancreas. The dorsal horn of the thoracic spinal cords of rats with CP contained activated microglia (based on increased staining with OX42), with an ameboid appearance. Levels of P-p38 increased in rats with CP and colocalized with OX42-positive cells. Intrathecal injection of minocycline reversed and prevented the increase of nocifensive behaviors and levels of P-p38 in rats with CP. Fractalkine induced hyperalgesia in rats without CP, which was blocked by minocycline. Activated spinal microglia have important roles in maintaining and initiating chronic pain in a rat model of CP. Microglia might be a target for treatment of hyperalgesia caused by pancreatic inflammation. Copyright © 2012 AGA Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Systems Integration, Analysis and Modeling Support to the HEDS Technology/Commercialization Initiative (HTCI)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feingold, Harvey; ONeil, Dan (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    In response to a recommendation from OMB, NASA's Fiscal Year 2001 budget included a new program within the HEDS (Human Exploration and Development of Space) Enterprise called HEDS Technology/ Commercialization Initiative (HTCI). HTCI had three overarching goals: to support REDS analysis and planning for safe, affordable and effective future programs and projects that advance human exploration, scientific discovery, and the commercial development of space; to pursue research, development, and validation of breakthrough technologies and highly innovative systems concepts; and to advance die creation of strong partnerships within NASA, with U.S. industry and universities, and internationally. As part of its contracted effort, SAIC was to write a report contribution, describing die results of its task activities, to a final HTCI report prepared by MSFC. Unfortunately, government cancellation of the HTCI program in the summer of 2001 curtailed all efforts on the program including die Final HTCI report. In the absence of that report, SAIC has issued this final report in an attempt to document some of the technical material it produced. The report contains SAIC presentations for both HTCI workshops; a set of roadmap charts for the Systems Analysis, Integration and Modeling; and charts showing the evolution of the current TITAN modeling architecture.

  20. Systems Integration, Analysis and Modeling Support to the HEDS Technology/Commercialization Initiative (HTCI)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feingold, Harvey; ONeil, Dan (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    In response to a recommendation from OMB, NASA's Fiscal Year 2001 budget included a new program within the HEDS (Human Exploration and Development of Space) Enterprise called HEDS Technology/ Commercialization Initiative (HTCI). HTCI had three overarching goals: to support REDS analysis and planning for safe, affordable and effective future programs and projects that advance human exploration, scientific discovery, and the commercial development of space; to pursue research, development, and validation of breakthrough technologies and highly innovative systems concepts; and to advance die creation of strong partnerships within NASA, with U.S. industry and universities, and internationally. As part of its contracted effort, SAIC was to write a report contribution, describing die results of its task activities, to a final HTCI report prepared by MSFC. Unfortunately, government cancellation of the HTCI program in the summer of 2001 curtailed all efforts on the program including die Final HTCI report. In the absence of that report, SAIC has issued this final report in an attempt to document some of the technical material it produced. The report contains SAIC presentations for both HTCI workshops; a set of roadmap charts for the Systems Analysis, Integration and Modeling; and charts showing the evolution of the current TITAN modeling architecture.

  1. Initial Content Validation Results of a New Simulation Model for Flexible Ureteroscopy: The Key-Box.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villa, Luca; Şener, Tarik Emre; Somani, Bhaskar K; Cloutier, Jonathan; Butticè, Salvatore; Marson, Francesco; Doizi, Steeve; Proietti, Silvia; Traxer, Olivier

    2017-01-01

    We sought to test the content validity of a new training model for flexible ureteroscopy: the Key-Box. Sixteen medical students were randomized to undergo a 10-day training consisting of performing 10 different exercises aimed at learning specific movements with the flexible ureteroscope, and how to catch and release stones with a nitinol basket using the Key-Box (n = 8 students in the training group, n = 8 students in the nontraining control group). Subsequently, an expert endourologist (O.T.) blindly assessed skills acquired by the whole cohort of students through two exercises on ureteroscope manipulation and one exercise on stone capture selected among those used for the training. A performance scale (1-5) assessing different steps of the procedure was used to evaluate each student. Time to complete the exercises was measured. Mann-Whitney Rank Sum test was used for comparisons between the two groups. Mean scores obtained by trained students were significantly higher compared with those obtained by nontrained students (all p six (75%) nontrained students were not able to finish one out of the two exercises on ureteroscope manipulation and the exercise on stone capture, respectively. The mean time to complete the three exercises was 76.3, 69.9, and 107 and 172.5, 137.9, and 168 seconds in the trained and nontrained groups, respectively (all p Box(®) seems to be a valid easy-to-use training model for initiating novel endoscopists to flexible ureteroscopy.

  2. Non-Bunch–Davis initial state reconciles chaotic models with BICEP and Planck

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amjad Ashoorioon

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available The BICEP2 experiment has announced a signal for primordial gravity waves with tensor-to-scalar ratio r=0.2−0.05+0.07 [1]. There are two ways to reconcile this result with the latest Planck experiment [2]. One is by assuming that there is a considerable tilt of r, Tr, with a positive sign, Tr=dln⁡r/dln⁡k≳0.57−0.27+0.29 corresponding to a blue tilt for the tensor modes of order nT≃0.53−0.27+0.29, assuming the Planck experiment best-fit value for tilt of scalar power spectrum nS. The other possibility is to assume that there is a negative running in the scalar spectral index, dnS/dln⁡k≃−0.02 which pushes up the upper bound on r from 0.11 up to 0.26 in the Planck analysis assuming the existence of a tensor spectrum. Simple slow-roll models fail to provide such large values for Tr or negative runnings in nS [1]. In this note we show that a non-Bunch–Davies initial state for perturbations can provide a match between large field chaotic models (like m2ϕ2 with the latest Planck result [3] and BICEP2 results by accommodating either the blue tilt of r or the negative large running of nS.

  3. Model-Based Reasoning in the Upper-Division Physics Laboratory: Framework and Initial Results

    CERN Document Server

    Zwickl, Benjamin M; Finkelstein, Noah; Lewandowski, H J

    2014-01-01

    Constructing and using models are core scientific practices that have gained significant attention within K-12 and higher education. Although modeling is a broadly applicable process, within physics education, it has been preferentially applied to the iterative development of broadly applicable principles (e.g., Newton's laws of motion in introductory mechanics). We review and extend existing frameworks on modeling to develop a new framework that more naturally describes model-based reasoning in upper-division physics labs. A significant feature of the new framework is that measurement tools (in addition to the physical system being studied) are subjected to the process of modeling. Think-aloud interviews were used to document examples of model-based reasoning in the laboratory and refine the modeling framework. The interviews showed how students productively applied similar facets of modeling to the physical system and measurement tools: construction, prediction, interpretation of data, identification of mod...

  4. Network structure implied by initial axon outgrowth in rodent cortex: empirical measurement and models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cahalane, Diarmuid J; Clancy, Barbara; Kingsbury, Marcy A; Graf, Ethan; Sporns, Olaf; Finlay, Barbara L

    2011-01-11

    The developmental mechanisms by which the network organization of the adult cortex is established are incompletely understood. Here we report on empirical data on the development of connections in hamster isocortex and use these data to parameterize a network model of early cortical connectivity. Using anterograde tracers at a series of postnatal ages, we investigate the growth of connections in the early cortical sheet and systematically map initial axon extension from sites in anterior (motor), middle (somatosensory) and posterior (visual) cortex. As a general rule, developing axons extend from all sites to cover relatively large portions of the cortical field that include multiple cortical areas. From all sites, outgrowth is anisotropic, covering a greater distance along the medial/lateral axis than along the anterior/posterior axis. These observations are summarized as 2-dimensional probability distributions of axon terminal sites over the cortical sheet. Our network model consists of nodes, representing parcels of cortex, embedded in 2-dimensional space. Network nodes are connected via directed edges, representing axons, drawn according to the empirically derived anisotropic probability distribution. The networks generated are described by a number of graph theoretic measurements including graph efficiency, node betweenness centrality and average shortest path length. To determine if connectional anisotropy helps reduce the total volume occupied by axons, we define and measure a simple metric for the extra volume required by axons crossing. We investigate the impact of different levels of anisotropy on network structure and volume. The empirically observed level of anisotropy suggests a good trade-off between volume reduction and maintenance of both network efficiency and robustness. Future work will test the model's predictions for connectivity in larger cortices to gain insight into how the regulation of axonal outgrowth may have evolved to achieve efficient

  5. An Initial Design of ISO 19152:2012 LADM Based Valuation and Taxation Data Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Çağdaş, V.; Kara, A.; van Oosterom, P.; Lemmen, C.; Işıkdağ, Ü.; Kathmann, R.; Stubkjær, E.

    2016-10-01

    A fiscal registry or database is supposed to record geometric, legal, physical, economic, and environmental characteristics in relation to property units, which are subject to immovable property valuation and taxation. Apart from procedural standards, there is no internationally accepted data standard that defines the semantics of fiscal databases. The ISO 19152:2012 Land Administration Domain Model (LADM), as an international land administration standard focuses on legal requirements, but considers out of scope specifications of external information systems including valuation and taxation databases. However, it provides a formalism which allows for an extension that responds to the fiscal requirements. This paper introduces an initial version of a LADM - Fiscal Extension Module for the specification of databases used in immovable property valuation and taxation. The extension module is designed to facilitate all stages of immovable property taxation, namely the identification of properties and taxpayers, assessment of properties through single or mass appraisal procedures, automatic generation of sales statistics, and the management of tax collection, dealing with arrears and appeals. It is expected that the initial version will be refined through further activities held by a possible joint working group under FIG Commission 7 (Cadastre and Land Management) and FIG Commission 9 (Valuation and the Management of Real Estate) in collaboration with other relevant international bodies.

  6. The Virtual Physiological Human - a European initiative for in silico human modelling -.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viceconti, Marco; Clapworthy, Gordon; Van Sint Jan, Serge

    2008-12-01

    The Virtual Physiological Human (VPH) is an initiative, strongly supported by the European Commission (EC), that seeks to develop an integrated model of human physiology at multiple scales from the whole body through the organ, tissue, cell and molecular levels to the genomic level. VPH had its beginnings in 2005 with informal discussions amongst like-minded scientists which led to the STEP project, a Coordination Action funded by the EC that began in early 2006. The STEP project greatly accelerated the progress of the VPH and proved to be a catalyst for wide-ranging discussions within Europe and for outreach activities designed to develop a broad international approach to the huge scientific and technological challenges involved in this area. This paper provides an overview of the VPH and the developments it has engendered in the rapidly expanding worldwide activities associated with the physiome. It then uses one particular project, the Living Human Project, to illustrate the type of advances that are taking place to further the aims of the VPH and similar initiatives worldwide.

  7. Modeling Microfabricated Multipoint Fuze Initiators Part 1: Pre-Melting Behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-01-01

    investigate the possibility of modeling the problem with fluid mechanics using a hypothetical fluid with a large, non - Newtonian viscosity. It may also be...the coupling of a fluid mechanics code with the existing solid mechanics model. Portions of the model should quickly reach evaporation temperatures...material and substrate, which will allow accurately-modeled heat transfer and fluid -structure interaction as the bridge wire melts and expands. We plan

  8. Model-based reasoning in the physics laboratory: Framework and initial results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zwickl, Benjamin M.; Hu, Dehui; Finkelstein, Noah; Lewandowski, H. J.

    2015-12-01

    [This paper is part of the Focused Collection on Upper Division Physics Courses.] We review and extend existing frameworks on modeling to develop a new framework that describes model-based reasoning in introductory and upper-division physics laboratories. Constructing and using models are core scientific practices that have gained significant attention within K-12 and higher education. Although modeling is a broadly applicable process, within physics education, it has been preferentially applied to the iterative development of broadly applicable principles (e.g., Newton's laws of motion in introductory mechanics). A significant feature of the new framework is that measurement tools (in addition to the physical system being studied) are subjected to the process of modeling. Think-aloud interviews were used to refine the framework and demonstrate its utility by documenting examples of model-based reasoning in the laboratory. When applied to the think-aloud interviews, the framework captures and differentiates students' model-based reasoning and helps identify areas of future research. The interviews showed how students productively applied similar facets of modeling to the physical system and measurement tools: construction, prediction, interpretation of data, identification of model limitations, and revision. Finally, we document students' challenges in explicitly articulating assumptions when constructing models of experimental systems and further challenges in model construction due to students' insufficient prior conceptual understanding. A modeling perspective reframes many of the seemingly arbitrary technical details of measurement tools and apparatus as an opportunity for authentic and engaging scientific sense making.

  9. Improving ingestion dose modelling for the ARGOS and RODOS decision support systems: A Nordic Initiative

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersson, Kasper Grann; Nielsen, Sven Poul; Thørring, Håvard

    2011-01-01

    A Nordic work group under the NKS-B activity PARDNOR has revised the input parameters in the ECOSYS model that is incorporated for ingestion dose modelling in the ARGOS and RODOS decision support systems. The new parameterisation takes into account recent measurement data, and targets the model...

  10. A Social Partnership Model to Promote Educators' Development in Mauritius through Formal and Informal Capacity-Building Initiatives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santally, Mohammad Issack; Cooshna-Naik, Dorothy; Conruyt, Noel; Wing, Caroline Koa

    2015-01-01

    This paper describes a social partnership model based on the living lab concept to promote the professional development of educators through formal and informal capacity-building initiatives. The aim is to have a broader impact on society through community outreach educational initiatives. A Living Lab is an environment for user-centered…

  11. A reactive burn model for shock initiation in a PBX: scaling and separability based on the hot spot concept

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Show, Milton S [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Menikoff, Ralph [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2010-01-01

    In the formulation of a reactive burn model for shock initiation, we endeavor to incorporate a number of effects based on the underlying physical concept of hot spot ignition followed by the growth of reaction due to diverging deflagration fronts. The passage of a shock front sets the initial condition for reaction, leading to a fraction of the hot spots that completely burn while others will quench. The form of the rate model is chosen to incorporate approximations based on the physical picture. In particular, the approximations imply scaling relations that are then used to mathematically separate various contributions. That is, the model is modular and refinements can be applied separately without changing the other contributions. For example, the effect of initial temperature, porosity, etc. predominantly enter the characterization of the non-quenching hot spot distribution. A large collection of velocity gauge data is shown to be well represented by the model with a very small number of parameters.

  12. APT Blanket Detailed Bin Model Based on Initial Plate-Type Design -3D FLOWTRAN-TF Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hamm, L.L.

    1998-10-07

    This report provides background information for a series of reports documenting accident scenario simulations for the Accelerator Production of Tritium (APT) blanket heat removal systems. The simulations were performed in support of the Preliminary Safety Analysis Report for the APT. This report gives a brief description of the FLOWTRAN-TF code which was used for detailed blanket bin modeling.

  13. Initial insights from 2.5D hydraulic modeling of floods in Athabasca Valles, Mars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keszthelyi, L.P.; Denlinger, R.P.; O'Connell, D. R. H.; Burr, D.M.

    2007-01-01

    We present the first application of a 2.5D hydraulic model to catastrophic floods on Mars. This model simulates flow over complex topography and incorporates flood dynamics that could not be modeled in the earlier 1D models. We apply this model to Athabasca Valles, the youngest outflow channel on Mars, investigating previous bank-full discharge estimates and utilizing the interpolated Mars Orbiter Laser Altimeter elevation map as input. We confirm that the bank-full assumption does not fit the observed landforms. Instead, the channel appears more deeply incised near the source. Flow modeling also identifies several areas of special interest, including a dry cataract that coincides with a region of predicted high erosion. However, artifacts in the elevation data strongly impacted estimated stages and velocities in other areas. More extensive connection between the flood hydraulics and observed landforms awaits improved topographic data.

  14. Verification of new model for calculation of critical strain for the initialization of dynamic recrystallization using laboratory rolling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Fabík

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a new model for calculation of critical strain for initialization of dynamic recrystallization. The new model reflects the history of forming in the deformation zone during rolling. In this region of restricted deformation, the strain rate curve for the surface of the strip exhibits two peaks. These are the two reasons why the onset of dynamic recrystallization DRX near the surface of the rolled part occurs later than in theory during strip rolling. The present model had been used in a program for simulation of forming processes with the aid of FEM and a comparison between the physical experiment and a mathematical model had been drawn.

  15. Can multivariate models based on MOAKS predict OA knee pain? Data from the Osteoarthritis Initiative

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luna-Gómez, Carlos D.; Zanella-Calzada, Laura A.; Galván-Tejada, Jorge I.; Galván-Tejada, Carlos E.; Celaya-Padilla, José M.

    2017-03-01

    Osteoarthritis is the most common rheumatic disease in the world. Knee pain is the most disabling symptom in the disease, the prediction of pain is one of the targets in preventive medicine, this can be applied to new therapies or treatments. Using the magnetic resonance imaging and the grading scales, a multivariate model based on genetic algorithms is presented. Using a predictive model can be useful to associate minor structure changes in the joint with the future knee pain. Results suggest that multivariate models can be predictive with future knee chronic pain. All models; T0, T1 and T2, were statistically significant, all p values were 0.60.

  16. Convergence of a continuous BGK model for initial boundary-value problems for conservation laws

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Driss Seghir

    2001-11-01

    Full Text Available We consider a scalar conservation law in the quarter plane. This equation is approximated in a continuous kinetic Bhatnagar-Gross-Krook (BGK model. The convergence of the model towards the unique entropy solution is established in the space of functions of bounded variation, using kinetic entropy inequalities, without special restriction on the flux nor on the equilibrium problem's data. As an application, we establish the hydrodynamic limit for a $2imes2$ relaxation system with general data. Also we construct a new family of convergent continuous BGK models with simple maxwellians different from the $chi$ models.

  17. Initial Rifting Process and Dynamics Mechanism of Huaguang Sag:Evidence from a Numerical Modeling Method

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zhourong Cai; Bin Xia; Baofeng L; Weiqi Yao; Jianfeng Li

    2015-01-01

    Huaguang Sag is located in the deep seawater area of Qiongdongnan Basin, and its tec-tonic position belongs to the intersection of NE-trending, SN-trending and NW-trending tectonic sys-tems in the continental margin of the Northwest South China Sea. To investigate the initial rifting process and further more the dynamics mechanism of Huaguang Sag, this paper sets up the structure model of basement which mainly makes up with several depression-controlling faults, and simulates the initial rifting process of Huaguang Sag by the FLAC software. The simulation results show that only affected by the S-N trending extensional stress, the rifting center appears in northern boundary base-ment faults (two NEE-trending and NWW-trending faults) of Huaguang Sag while does not take place at the NNE-trending and NE-trending basement fault zone in the middle sag, and doesn’t match the current pattern that the basement fault plays a main role in controlling the sediment. In the other case, affected by the S-N trending and E-W trending extensional stress at the same time, the areas of the northern boundary faults zone and internal NNE-trending basement faults zone come to be rifting cen-ter quickly, the sedimentary is controlled by the main basement faults to different degrees, and is con-sistent with the tectonic-sedimentary framework of Huaguang Sag which obtained by the data of geo-physical interpretation. In combination with the analysis of regional tectonic background, the paper proposes that two remote tectonic effects occurred by the collision of India-Eurasian Plate:One remote effect was the rotational extrusion of IndoChina Block, which led to form a series of NE-trending and NNE-trending basement faults, as well as the E-W trending tensile stress field in Huaguang Sag. The other remote effect was that the deep mantle material of South China Block flowed southward, which resulted in the S-N trending extensional rifting of the lithosphere in northern South China Sea, and fi

  18. Breeding technique for initializing global coupled climate model for decadal climate prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romanova, Vanya; Hense, Andreas

    2015-04-01

    Defining the uncertainties at the starting day of a hindcast is still problematic and there is no well established method from weather forecasting, which could be applied directly by the decadal forecast community. The success of proper initialization depend mainly on finding of the locations and strengths of uncertainties, which develop and grow fastest with the forecast time. One method widely used for a short and medium range forecast is the Bred Vectors (BV) technique. Here, we test the BV for a long-range, inter-annual, seasonal and decadal forecast. The applied a-priori random noise is bred over the time iteratively until the nonlinear fastest growing errors are extracted. The growth rates of these non-linearly filtered instabilities appear to approach the leading Lyapunov exponents (Toth and Kalnay, 1993) if the BV process is continued over a longer time period. Targeting decadal prediction we search only for the slowest modes of the ocean physical processes, and expect the disturbances to grow mainly in the Western Boundary Currents, in the ACC and ENSO regions. Therefore we implemented a BV variant which determines local BV around an almost fixed in time oceanic state. The breeding technique is build around the MPIOM-ESM coupled model at T31L31/GR30L40 resolution. Perturbations are applied on the ocean temperature, salinity, meridional and zonal components of the velocity. The metric used to scale the disturbed fields is taken to be the weighted total energy with its zonal, meridional kinetic and available potential energy terms having equal contributions. Also this weighted total energy norm is used to monitor the growths rates of the fastest growing error modes. The method and the breeding application are still in a testing phase. However, the first bred vectors are analyzed and the most sensitive regions in the ocean responsible for inter-annual to decadal variability are localized. A refinement of the scaling procedure of the amplitude of the

  19. What Kind of Initial Errors Cause the Severest Prediction Uncertainty of EI Nino in Zebiak-Cane Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    XU Hui; DUAN Wansuo

    2008-01-01

    With the Zebiak-Cane (ZC) model, the initial error that has the largest effect on ENSO prediction is explored by conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP). The results demonstrate that CNOP-type errors cause the largest prediction error of ENSO in the ZC model. By analyzing the behavior of CNOP- type errors, we find that for the normal states and the relatively weak EI Nino events in the ZC model, the predictions tend to yield false alarms due to the uncertainties caused by CNOP. For the relatively strong EI Nino events, the ZC model largely underestimates their intensities. Also, our results suggest that the error growth of EI Nino in the ZC model depends on the phases of both the annual cycle and ENSO. The condition during northern spring and summer is most favorable for the error growth. The ENSO prediction bestriding these two seasons may be the most difficult. A linear singular vector (LSV) approach is also used to estimate the error growth of ENSO, but it underestimates the prediction uncertainties of ENSO in the ZC model. This result indicates that the different initial errors cause different amplitudes of prediction errors though they have same magnitudes. CNOP yields the severest prediction uncertainty. That is to say, the prediction skill of ENSO is closely related to the types of initial error. This finding illustrates a theoretical basis of data assimilation. It is expected that a data assimilation method can filter the initial errors related to CNOP and improve the ENSO forecast skill.

  20. Mathematical and numerical model of directional solidification including initial and terminal transients of the process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. Kapturkiewicz

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available The, developed in this study, simple model and numerical solution of diffusion growth of the solid phase under the conditions of directional solidification allow for the effect of constituent diffusion in both liquid and solid phase and assume the process run in which (like in reality the preset parameter is the velocity of sample (pulling velocity at a preset temperature gradient. The solid/liquid interface velocity is not the process parameter (like it is in numerous other solutions proposed so far but a function of this process. The effect of convection outside the diffusion layer has been included in mass balance under the assumption that in the zone of convection the mixing is complete. The above assumptions enabled solving the kinetics of growth of the solid phase (along with the diffusion field in solid and liquid phase under the conditions of diffusion well reflecting the process run starting with the initial transient state, going through the steady state period in central part of the casting, and ending in a terminal transient state. In the numerical solution obtained by the finite difference method with variable grid dimensions, the error of the mass control balance over the whole process range was 1 - 2 %.

  1. Coronal mass ejection initiation: On the nature of the Flux Cancellation Model

    CERN Document Server

    Amari, Tahar; Mikic, Zoran; Linker, Jon A

    2010-01-01

    We consider a three-dimensional bipolar force-free magnetic field with non zero magnetic helicity, occupying a half-space, and study the problem of its evolution driven by an imposed photospheric flux decrease. For this specific setting of the Flux Cancellation Model describing coronal mass ejections occuring in active regions, we address the issues of the physical meaning of flux decrease, of the influence on field evolution of the size of the domain over which this decrease is imposed, and of the existence of an energetic criterion characterizing the possible onset of disruption of the configuration. We show that: (1) The imposed flux disappearance can be interpreted in terms of transport of positive and negative fluxes towards the inversion line, where they get annihilated. (2) For the particular case actually computed, in which the initial state is quite sheared, the formation of a twisted flux rope and the subsequent global disruption of the configuration are obtained when the flux has decreased by only ...

  2. Mountains on Io: High-resolution Galileo observations, initial interpretations, and formation models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turtle, E.P.; Jaeger, W.L.; Keszthelyi, L.P.; McEwen, A.S.; Milazzo, M.; Moore, J.; Phillips, C.B.; Radebaugh, J.; Simonelli, D.; Chuang, F.; Schuster, P.; Alexander, D.D.A.; Capraro, K.; Chang, S.-H.; Chen, A.C.; Clark, J.; Conner, D.L.; Culver, A.; Handley, T.H.; Jensen, D.N.; Knight, D.D.; LaVoie, S.K.; McAuley, M.; Mego, V.; Montoya, O.; Mortensen, H.B.; Noland, S.J.; Patel, R.R.; Pauro, T.M.; Stanley, C.L.; Steinwand, D.J.; Thaller, T.F.; Woncik, P.J.; Yagi, G.M.; Yoshimizu, J.R.; Alvarez Del Castillo, E.M.; Beyer, R.; Branston, D.; Fishburn, M.B.; Muller, Birgit; Ragan, R.; Samarasinha, N.; Anger, C.D.; Cunningham, C.; Little, B.; Arriola, S.; Carr, M.H.; Asphaug, E.; Morrison, D.; Rages, K.; Banfield, D.; Bell, M.; Burns, J.A.; Carcich, B.; Clark, B.; Currier, N.; Dauber, I.; Gierasch, P.J.; Helfenstein, P.; Mann, M.; Othman, O.; Rossier, L.; Solomon, N.; Sullivan, R.; Thomas, P.C.; Veverka, J.; Becker, T.; Edwards, K.; Gaddis, L.; Kirk, R.; Lee, E.; Rosanova, T.; Sucharski, R.M.; Beebe, R.F.; Simon, A.; Belton, M.J.S.; Bender, K.; Fagents, S.; Figueredo, P.; Greeley, R.; Homan, K.; Kadel, S.; Kerr, J.; Klemaszewski, J.; Lo, E.; Schwarz, W.; Williams, D.; Williams, K.; Bierhaus, B.; Brooks, S.; Chapman, C.R.; Merline, B.; Keller, J.; Tamblyn, P.; Bouchez, A.; Dyundian, U.; Ingersoll, A.P.; Showman, A.; Spitale, J.; Stewart, S.; Vasavada, A.; Breneman, H.H.; Cunningham, W.F.; Johnson, T.V.; Jones, T.J.; Kaufman, J.M.; Klaasen, K.P.; Levanas, G.; Magee, K.P.; Meredith, M.K.; Orton, G.S.; Senske, D.A.; West, A.; Winther, D.; Collins, G.; Fripp, W.J.; Head, J. W.; Pappalardo, R.; Pratt, S.; Prockter, L.; Spaun, N.; Colvin, T.; Davies, M.; DeJong, E.M.; Hall, J.; Suzuki, S.; Gorjian, Z.; Denk, T.; Giese, B.; Koehler, U.; Neukum, G.; Oberst, J.; Roatsch, T.; Tost, W.; Wagner, R.; Dieter, N.; Durda, D.; Geissler, P.; Greenberg, R.J.; Hoppa, G.; Plassman, J.; Tufts, R.; Fanale, F.P.; Granahan, J.C.

    2001-01-01

    During three close flybys in late 1999 and early 2000 the Galileo spacecraft ac-quired new observations of the mountains that tower above Io's surface. These images have revealed surprising variety in the mountains' morphologies. They range from jagged peaks several kilometers high to lower, rounded structures. Some are very smooth, others are covered by numerous parallel ridges. Many mountains have margins that are collapsing outward in large landslides or series of slump blocks, but a few have steep, scalloped scarps. From these observations we can gain insight into the structure and material properties of Io's crust as well as into the erosional processes acting on Io. We have also investigated formation mechanisms proposed for these structures using finite-element analysis. Mountain formation might be initiated by global compression due to the high rate of global subsidence associated with Io's high resurfacing rate; however, our models demonstrate that this hypothesis lacks a mechanism for isolating the mountains. The large fraction (???40%) of mountains that are associated with paterae suggests that in some cases these features are tectonically related. Therefore we have also simulated the stresses induced in Io's crust by a combination of a thermal upwelling in the mantle with global lithospheric compression and have shown that this can focus compressional stresses. If this mechanism is responsible for some of Io's mountains, it could also explain the common association of mountains with paterae. Copyright 2001 by the American Geophysical Union.

  3. Initial Analysis of and Predictive Model Development for Weather Reroute Advisory Use

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arneson, Heather M.

    2016-01-01

    In response to severe weather conditions, traffic management coordinators specify reroutes to route air traffic around affected regions of airspace. Providing analysis and recommendations of available reroute options would assist the traffic management coordinators in making more efficient rerouting decisions. These recommendations can be developed by examining historical data to determine which previous reroute options were used in similar weather and traffic conditions. Essentially, using previous information to inform future decisions. This paper describes the initial steps and methodology used towards this goal. A method to extract relevant features from the large volume of weather data to quantify the convective weather scenario during a particular time range is presented. Similar routes are clustered. A description of the algorithm to identify which cluster of reroute advisories were actually followed by pilots is described. Models built for fifteen of the top twenty most frequently used reroute clusters correctly predict the use of the cluster for over 60 of the test examples. Results are preliminary but indicate that the methodology is worth pursuing with modifications based on insight gained from this analysis.

  4. The Role of Model and Initial Condition Error in Numerical Weather Forecasting Investigated with an Observing System Simulation Experiment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prive, Nikki C.; Errico, Ronald M.

    2013-01-01

    A series of experiments that explore the roles of model and initial condition error in numerical weather prediction are performed using an observing system simulation experiment (OSSE) framework developed at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (NASA/GMAO). The use of an OSSE allows the analysis and forecast errors to be explicitly calculated, and different hypothetical observing networks can be tested with ease. In these experiments, both a full global OSSE framework and an 'identical twin' OSSE setup are utilized to compare the behavior of the data assimilation system and evolution of forecast skill with and without model error. The initial condition error is manipulated by varying the distribution and quality of the observing network and the magnitude of observation errors. The results show that model error has a strong impact on both the quality of the analysis field and the evolution of forecast skill, including both systematic and unsystematic model error components. With a realistic observing network, the analysis state retains a significant quantity of error due to systematic model error. If errors of the analysis state are minimized, model error acts to rapidly degrade forecast skill during the first 24-48 hours of forward integration. In the presence of model error, the impact of observation errors on forecast skill is small, but in the absence of model error, observation errors cause a substantial degradation of the skill of medium range forecasts.

  5. Integrated hydrological modelling of a managed coastal Mediterranean wetland (Rhone delta, France: initial calibration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Chauvelon

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a model of a heavily managed coastal Mediterranean wetland. The hydrosystem studied , called ``Ile de Camargue', is the central part of the Rhone river delta. It comprises flat agricultural drainage basins, marshes, and shallow brackish lagoons whose connection to the sea is managed. This hydrosystem is subject to strong natural hydrological variability due to the combination of a Mediterranean climate and the artificial hydrological regime imposed by flooded rice cultivation. To quantify the hydrological balance at different spatial and temporal scales, a simplified model is developed — including the basin and the lagoons — using a time step that enables the temporal dynamic to be reproduced that is adapted to data availability. This modelling task takes into account the functioning of the natural and anthropogenic components of the hydrosystem. A conceptual approach is used for modelling drainage from the catchment, using a GIS to estimate water input for rice irrigation. The lagoon system is modelled using a two-dimensional finite element hydrodynamic model. Simulated results from the hydrodynamic model run under various hydro-climatic forcing conditions (water level, wind speed and direction, sea connection are used to calculate hydraulic exchanges between lagoon sub units considered as boxes. Finally, the HIC ('Hydrologie de l’Ile de Camargue' conceptual model is applied to simulate the water inputs and exchanges between the different units, together with the salt balance in the hydrosystem during a calibration period. Keywords: water management,conceptual hydrological model, hydrodynamic model, box model, GIS, Rhone delta, Camargue.

  6. THE IMPACT OF INITIAL FORCED WIND ON THE PREDICTABILITY OF THE ZEBIAK-CANE COUPLED OCEAN-ATMOSPHERE MODEL

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YUE Cai-jun; LU Wei-song; LI Qing-quan

    2006-01-01

    With simultaneous observed sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA), the difference between NCEP/NCAR 925hPa reanalysis wind stress anomaly (NCEPWSA) and FSU wind stress anomaly (FSUWSA) is analyzed, and the prediction abilities of Zebiak-Cane coupled ocean-atmosphere model (ZC coupled model) with NCEPWSA and FSUWSA serving respectively as initialization wind are compared. The results are as follows.The distribution feature of NCEPWSA matches better with that of the observed SSTA than counterpart of FSUWSA both in 1980s and in 1990s; The ZC ocean model has a better skill under the forcing of NCEPWSA than that of FSUWSA, especially in 1990s. Meanwhile, the forecast abilities of the ZC coupled model in 1990s as well as in 1980s have been improved employing NCEPWSA as initialization wind instead of FSUWSA.Particularly, it succeeded in predicting 1997/1998 El Ni(n)o 6 to 8 months ahead; further analysis shows that on the antecedent and onset stages of the 1997/1998 El Ni(n)o event, the horizontal cold and warm distribution characteristics of the simulated SSTA from ZC ocean model, with NCEPWSA forcing compared to FSUWSA forcing, match better with counterparts of the corresponding observed SSTA, whereby providing better predication initialization conditions for ZC coupled model, which, in turn, is favorable to improve the forecast ability of the coupled model.

  7. Self-Efficacy and Workaholism as Initiators of the Job Demands-Resources Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guglielmi, Dina; Simbula, Silvia; Schaufeli, Wilmar B.; Depolo, Marco

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: This study aims to investigate school principals' well-being by using the job demands-resources (JD-R) model as a theoretical framework. It aims at making a significant contribution to the development of this model by considering not only job demands and job resources, but also the role of personal resources and personal demands as…

  8. FY17 Status Report on the Initial Development of a Constitutive Model for Grade 91 Steel

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Messner, M. C. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Phan, V. -T. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Sham, T. -L. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)

    2017-07-01

    Grade 91 is a candidate structural material for high temperature advanced reactor applications. Existing ASME Section III, Subsection HB, Subpart B simplified design rules based on elastic analysis are setup as conservative screening tools with the intent to supplement these screening rules with full inelastic analysis when required. The Code provides general guidelines for suitable inelastic models but does not provide constitutive model implementations. This report describes the development of an inelastic constitutive model for Gr. 91 steel aimed at fulfilling the ASME Code requirements and being included into a new Section III Code appendix, HBB-Z. A large database of over 300 experiments on Gr. 91 was collected and converted to a standard XML form. Five families of Gr. 91 material models were identified in the literature. Of these five, two are potentially suitable for use in the ASME code. These two models were implemented and evaluated against the experimental database. Both models have deficiencies so the report develops a framework for developing and calibrating an improved model. This required creating a new modeling method for representing changes in material rate sensitivity across the full ASME allowable temperature range for Gr. 91 structural components: room temperature to 650° C. On top of this framework for rate sensitivity the report describes calibrating a model for work hardening and softening in the material using genetic algorithm optimization. Future work will focus on improving this trial model by including tension/compression asymmetry observed in experiments and necessary to capture material ratcheting under zero mean stress and by improving the optimization and analysis framework.

  9. Determination of the Support Level of Local Organizations in a Model Forest Initiative: Do Local Stakeholders Have Willingness to Be Involved in the Model Forest Development?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmet Tolunay

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Voluntary cooperation and the support of stakeholders carry a major importance in the development of Model Forests. The identification of the support level of local organizations as stakeholders in the Bucak Model Forest initiative, located in the Mediterranean region of Turkey, constitutes the theme of this study. Within this scope, the views of the stakeholders comprising local government units (LGUs, non-governmental organizations (NGOs, village councils (VCs, professional organizations (POs and forest products enterprises (FPEs located in the district of Bucak were collected by utilizing a survey technique. The data were analysed by using non-parametric statistical analyses due to the absence of a normal distribution. The results show that the information provided about the Model Forest concept to the stakeholders located in the district on the Bucak Model Forest initiative was identified as a factor impacting the support level. Moreover, it was also observed that the stakeholders were more willing to provide advisory support rather than financial support. NGOs and VCs were identified as stakeholders who could not provide financial support due to their restricted budgets. We discuss the benefits for a Model Forest initiative of establishing international cooperation to strengthen the local and regional sustainable development process.

  10. Coupling Landform Evolution and Soil Pedogenesis - Initial Results From the SSSPAM5D Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Willgoose, G. R.; Welivitiya, W. D. D. P.; Hancock, G. R.; Cohen, S.

    2015-12-01

    Evolution of soil on a dynamic landform is a crucial next step in landscape evolution modelling. Some attempts have been taken such as MILESD by Vanwalleghem et al. to develop a first model which is capable of simultaneously evolving both the soil profile and the landform. In previous work we have presented physically based models for soil pedogenesis, mARM and SSSPAM. In this study we present the results of coupling a landform evolution model with our SSSPAM5D soil pedogenesis model. In previous work the SSSPAM5D soil evolution model was used to identify trends of the soil profile evolution on a static landform. Two pedogenetic processes, namely (1) armouring due to erosion, and (2) physical and chemical weathering were used in those simulations to evolve the soil profile. By incorporating elevation changes (due to erosion and deposition) we have advanced the SSSPAM5D modelling framework into the realm of landscape evolution. Simulations have been run using elevation and soil grading data of the engineered landform (spoil heap) at the Ranger Uranium Mine, Northern Territory, Australia. The results obtained for the coupled landform-soil evolution simulations predict the erosion of high slope areas, development of rudimentary channel networks in the landform and deposition of sediments in lowland areas, and qualitatively consistent with landform evolution models on their own. Examination of the soil profile characteristics revealed that hill crests are weathering dominated and tend to develop a thick soil layer. The steeper hillslopes at the edge of the landform are erosion dominated with shallow soils while the foot slopes are deposition dominated with thick soil layers. The simulation results of our coupled landform and soil evolution model provide qualitatively correct and timely characterization of the soil evolution on a dynamic landscape. Finally we will compare the characteristics of erosion and deposition predicted by the coupled landform-soil SSSPAM

  11. The role of noise and initial conditions in the asymptotic solution of a bounded confidence, continuous-opinion model

    CERN Document Server

    Carro, Adrian; Miguel, Maxi San

    2012-01-01

    We study a model for continuous-opinion dynamics under bounded confidence. In particular, we analyze the importance of the initial distribution of opinions in determining the asymptotic configuration. Thus, we sketch the structure of attractors of the dynamical system, by means of the numerical computation of the time evolution of the agents density. We show that, for a given bound of confidence, a consensus can be encouraged or prevented by certain initial conditions. Furthermore, a noisy perturbation is added to the system with the purpose of modeling the free will of the agents. As a consequence, the importance of the initial condition is partially replaced by that of the statistical distribution of the noise. Nevertheless, we still find evidence of the influence of the initial state upon the final configuration for a short range of the bound of confidence parameter.

  12. High Performance Computing Application: Solar Dynamo Model Project II, Corona and Heliosphere Component Initialization, Integration and Validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-06-24

    allocate solar heating into any location of the corona . Its total contribution depended on the integration of the unsigned magnetic flux at 1 Rs...AFRL-RD-PS- TR-2015-0028 AFRL-RD-PS- TR-2015-0028 HIGH PERFORMANCE COMPUTING APPLICATION: SOLAR DYNAMO MODEL PROJECT II; CORONA AND HELIOSPHERE...Dynamo Model Project II, Corona and Heliosphere Component Initialization, Integration and Validation 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6

  13. Examination of physical processes of convective cell evolved from a MCS — Using a different model initialization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spiridonov, Vlado; Ćurić, Mladjen

    2016-06-01

    The present study is focused on examination of the physical processes of convective cell evolved from a MCS occurred on 4 November 2011 over Genoa, Italy. The Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPF) have been performed using WRF v3.6 model under different configurations and cloud permitting simulations. The results indicate underestimation of the amount of precipitation and spatial displacement of the area with a peak 24-h accumulated rainfall in (mm). Our main objective in the research is to test the cloud model ability and performance in simulation of this particular case. For that purpose a set of sensitivity experiments under different model initializations and initial data have been conducted. The results also indicate that the merging process apparently alters the physical processes through low- and middle-level forcing, increasing cloud depth, and enhancing convection. The examination of the microphysical process simulated by the model indicates that dominant production terms are the accretion of rain by graupel and snow, probabilistic freezing of rain to form graupel and dry and wet growth of graupel. Experiment under WRF v3.6 model initialization has shown some advantage in simulation of the physical processes responsible for production and initiation of heavy rainfall compared to other model runs. Most of the precipitation came from ice-phase particles-via accretion processes and the graupel melting at temperature T0 ≥ 0°C. The rainfall intensity and accumulated rainfall calculated by the model closely reflect the amount of rainfall recorded. Thus, the main benefit is to better resolve convective showers or storms which, in extreme cases, can give rise to major flooding events. In such a way, this model may become major contributor to improvements in weather analysis and small-scale atmospheric predictions and early warnings of such subscale processes.

  14. TPACK MODEL IN DEGREE STUDIES FOR INITIAL TEACHER TRAINING IN ICT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ISABEL Mª GÓMEZ TRIGUEROS

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available  Under the abbreviation TPACK we mention the acronym of “Technological Pedagogical Content Knowledge” (TPCK or TPACK is made. It is a model of teaching and learning (E-A that identifies the types of knowledge that a teacher needs to master to integrate the Information and Communication Technologies (ICT in an effective way in imparting education. It is included among the cognitive models in cooperative environments, where, in addition, the technology is used. The pioneers in implementing this model are teachers Punya Mishra and Matthew J. Koehler, of Michigan State University (between 2006 and 2009. 

  15. Multi-model assessment of the impact of soil moisture initialization on mid-latitude summer predictability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ardilouze, Constantin; Batté, L.; Bunzel, F.; Decremer, D.; Déqué, M.; Doblas-Reyes, F. J.; Douville, H.; Fereday, D.; Guemas, V.; MacLachlan, C.; Müller, W.; Prodhomme, C.

    2017-02-01

    Land surface initial conditions have been recognized as a potential source of predictability in sub-seasonal to seasonal forecast systems, at least for near-surface air temperature prediction over the mid-latitude continents. Yet, few studies have systematically explored such an influence over a sufficient hindcast period and in a multi-model framework to produce a robust quantitative assessment. Here, a dedicated set of twin experiments has been carried out with boreal summer retrospective forecasts over the 1992-2010 period performed by five different global coupled ocean-atmosphere models. The impact of a realistic versus climatological soil moisture initialization is assessed in two regions with high potential previously identified as hotspots of land-atmosphere coupling, namely the North American Great Plains and South-Eastern Europe. Over the latter region, temperature predictions show a significant improvement, especially over the Balkans. Forecast systems better simulate the warmest summers if they follow pronounced dry initial anomalies. It is hypothesized that models manage to capture a positive feedback between high temperature and low soil moisture content prone to dominate over other processes during the warmest summers in this region. Over the Great Plains, however, improving the soil moisture initialization does not lead to any robust gain of forecast quality for near-surface temperature. It is suggested that models biases prevent the forecast systems from making the most of the improved initial conditions.

  16. Can Impacts of Climate Change and Agricultural Adaptation Strategies Be Accurately Quantified if Crop Models Are Annually Re-Initialized?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Basso, Bruno; Hyndman, David W; Kendall, Anthony D; Grace, Peter R; Robertson, G Philip

    2015-01-01

    Estimates of climate change impacts on global food production are generally based on statistical or process-based models. Process-based models can provide robust predictions of agricultural yield responses to changing climate and management. However, applications of these models often suffer from bias due to the common practice of re-initializing soil conditions to the same state for each year of the forecast period. If simulations neglect to include year-to-year changes in initial soil conditions and water content related to agronomic management, adaptation and mitigation strategies designed to maintain stable yields under climate change cannot be properly evaluated. We apply a process-based crop system model that avoids re-initialization bias to demonstrate the importance of simulating both year-to-year and cumulative changes in pre-season soil carbon, nutrient, and water availability. Results are contrasted with simulations using annual re-initialization, and differences are striking. We then demonstrate the potential for the most likely adaptation strategy to offset climate change impacts on yields using continuous simulations through the end of the 21st century. Simulations that annually re-initialize pre-season soil carbon and water contents introduce an inappropriate yield bias that obscures the potential for agricultural management to ameliorate the deleterious effects of rising temperatures and greater rainfall variability.

  17. Preliminary Results of a U.S. Deep South Modeling Experiment Using NASA SPoRT Initialization Datasets for Operational National Weather Service Local Model Runs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, Lance; Medlin, Jeffrey M.; Case, Jon

    2012-01-01

    A joint collaborative modeling effort among the NWS offices in Mobile, AL, and Houston, TX, and NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center began during the 2011-2012 cold season, and continued into the 2012 warm season. The focus was on two frequent U.S. Deep South forecast challenges: the initiation of deep convection during the warm season; and heavy precipitation during the cold season. We wanted to examine the impact of certain NASA produced products on the Weather Research and Forecasting Environmental Modeling System in improving the model representation of mesoscale boundaries such as the local sea-, bay- and land-breezes (which often leads to warm season convective initiation); and improving the model representation of slow moving, or quasi-stationary frontal boundaries (which focus cold season storm cell training and heavy precipitation). The NASA products were: the 4-km Land Information System, a 1-km sea surface temperature analysis, and a 4-km greenness vegetation fraction analysis. Similar domains were established over the southeast Texas and Alabama coastlines, each with an outer grid with a 9 km spacing and an inner nest with a 3 km grid spacing. The model was run at each NWS office once per day out to 24 hours from 0600 UTC, using the NCEP Global Forecast System for initial and boundary conditions. Control runs without the NASA products were made at the NASA SPoRT Center. The NCAR Model Evaluation Tools verification package was used to evaluate both the positive and negative impacts of the NASA products on the model forecasts. Select case studies will be presented to highlight the influence of the products.

  18. Initiating events study of the first extraction cycle process in a model reprocessing plant

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Renze; Zhang, Jian Gang; Zhuang, Dajie; Feng, Zong Yang [China Institute for Radiation Protection, Taiyuan (China)

    2016-06-15

    Definition and grouping of initiating events (IEs) are important basics for probabilistic safety assessment (PSA). An IE in a spent fuel reprocessing plant (SFRP) is an event that probably leads to the release of dangerous material to jeopardize workers, public and environment. The main difference between SFRPs and nuclear power plants (NPPs) is that hazard materials spread diffusely in a SFRP and radioactive material is just one kind of hazard material. Since the research on IEs for NPPs is in-depth around the world, there are several general methods to identify IEs: reference of lists in existence, review of experience feedback, qualitative analysis method, and deductive analysis method. While failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) is an important qualitative analysis method, master logic diagram (MLD) method is the deductive analysis method. IE identification in SFRPs should be consulted with the experience of NPPs, however the differences between SFRPs and NPPs should be considered seriously. The plutonium uranium reduction extraction (Purex) process is adopted by the technics in a model reprocessing plant. The first extraction cycle (FEC) is the pivotal process in the Purex process. Whether the FEC can function safely and steadily would directly influence the production process of the whole plant-production quality. Important facilities of the FEC are installed in the equipment cells (ECs). In this work, IEs in the FEC process were identified and categorized by FMEA and MLD two methods, based on the fact that ECs are containments in the plant. The results show that only two ECs in the FEC do not need to be concerned particularly with safety problems, and criticality, fire and red oil explosion are IEs which should be emphatically analyzed. The results are accordant with the references.

  19. Innate immunity drives the initiation of a murine model of primary biliary cirrhosis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chao-Hsuan Chang

    Full Text Available Invariant natural killer T (iNKT cells play complex roles in bridging innate and adaptive immunity by engaging with glycolipid antigens presented by CD1d. Our earlier work suggested that iNKT cells were involved in the initiation of the original loss of tolerance in primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC. To address this issue in more detail and, in particular, to focus on whether iNKT cells activated by a Th2-biasing agonist (2s,3s,4r-1-O-(α-D-galactopyranosyl-N-tetracosanoyl-2-amino-1,3,4-nonanetriol (OCH, can influence the development of PBC in a xenobiotic-induced PBC murine model. Groups of mice were treated with either OCH or, as a control, α-galactosylceramide (α-GalCer and thence serially followed for cytokine production, markers of T cell activation, liver histopathology and anti-mitochondrial antibody responses. Further, additional groups of CD1d deleted mice were similarly studied. Our data indicate that administration of OCH has a dramatic influence with exacerbation of portal inflammation and hepatic fibrosis similar to mice treated with α-GalCer. Further, iNKT cell deficient CD1d knockout mice have decreased inflammatory portal cell infiltrates and reduced anti-mitochondrial antibody responses. We submit that activation of iNKT cells can occur via overlapping and/or promiscuous pathways and highlight the critical role of innate immunity in the natural history of autoimmune cholangitis. These data have implications for humans with PBC and emphasize that therapeutic strategies must focus not only on suppressing adaptive responses, but also innate immunity.

  20. Compilation of watershed models for tributaries to the Great Lakes, United States, as of 2010, and identification of watersheds for future modeling for the Great Lakes Restoration Initiative

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coon, William F.; Murphy, Elizabeth A.; Soong, David T.; Sharpe, Jennifer B.

    2011-01-01

    As part of the Great Lakes Restoration Initiative (GLRI) during 2009–10, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) compiled a list of existing watershed models that had been created for tributaries within the United States that drain to the Great Lakes. Established Federal programs that are overseen by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) are responsible for most of the existing watershed models for specific tributaries. The NOAA Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory (GLERL) uses the Large Basin Runoff Model to provide data for the management of water levels in the Great Lakes by estimating United States and Canadian inflows to the Great Lakes from 121 large watersheds. GLERL also simulates streamflows in 34 U.S. watersheds by a grid-based model, the Distributed Large Basin Runoff Model. The NOAA National Weather Service uses the Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting model to predict flows at river forecast sites. The USACE created or funded the creation of models for at least 30 tributaries to the Great Lakes to better understand sediment erosion, transport, and aggradation processes that affect Federal navigation channels and harbors. Many of the USACE hydrologic models have been coupled with hydrodynamic and sediment-transport models that simulate the processes in the stream and harbor near the mouth of the modeled tributary. Some models either have been applied or have the capability of being applied across the entire Great Lakes Basin; they are (1) the SPAtially Referenced Regressions On Watershed attributes (SPARROW) model, which was developed by the USGS; (2) the High Impact Targeting (HIT) and Digital Watershed models, which were developed by the Institute of Water Research at Michigan State University; (3) the Long-Term Hydrologic Impact Assessment (L–THIA) model, which was developed by researchers at Purdue University; and (4) the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model, which was

  1. Initial Condition Model from Imaginary Part of Action and the Information Loss

    CERN Document Server

    Nielsen, H B

    2009-01-01

    We review slightly a work by Horowitz and Maldecena solving the information loss problem for black holes by having inside the blackhole - near to the singularity - a boundary condition, as e.g the no boundary proposal by Hartle and Hawking. Here we propose to make this boundary condition come out of our imaginary action model (together with Masao Ninomiya). This model naturally begins effectively to set up boundaries - whether it be in future or past! - especially strongly whenever we reach to high energy physics regimes, such as near the black hole singularity, or in Higgs producing machines as LHC or SSC. In such cases one can say our model predicts miracles. The point is that you may say that the information loss problem, unless you solve it in other ways, call for such a violation of time causality as in our imaginary action model!

  2. Modelling the initial structure dynamics of soil and sediment exemplified for a constructed hydrological catchment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maurer, Thomas; Schneider, Anna; Gerke, Horst H.

    2016-04-01

    The structure of a hydrological catchment is determined by the geometry of the boundaries and the spatial distribution of soil and sediment properties. Models of the 3D subsurface structure and the soil heterogeneity have often been built based on geostatistical approaches and conditional simulations for spatial interpolation between measurements. Here, an alternative model was proposed that generated 3D subsurface structures by imitating basic structures resulting from mass distribution processes. Instead of directly assuming stochastic variations of the subsurface structure, the present approach assumed stochastic variations in parameters of the process-based algorithms of the generator models. The constructed hydrological catchment "Hühnerwasser" located in the Lower Lusatia region of Brandenburg, Germany, was used as an example for the development of such a 3D structure generator model. Boundary geometries and changes in the surface topography due to erosion and sedimentation processes were quantified on the basis of digital elevation models (DEMs) derived from aerial photographs and terrestrial laser scanning information. Basic sediment properties came i) from a geological model of the parent material at the outcrop site, ii) from actual soil sample measurements on-site, and iii) based on stochastic texture variations. Sediment distributions were generated according to construction processes such as sediment dumping, particle segregation, and soil compaction. The resulting internal structures reflect the formation of spoil cones and surface compaction by machinery. The simulated 3D model scenarios of soil texture and bulk density distributions were incorporated in a gridded 3D volume model using the 3D software tool GoCAD (Paradigm Ltd.). This 3D distributed solid phase structure of the catchment allowed for a more direct comparison with observations using minimal invasive methods. By including structural changes over time (e.g., derived from DEM

  3. Improving Weather Research and Forecasting Model Initial Conditions via Surface Pressure Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-09-01

    Obsgrid) that creates input data for the Advanced Research version of the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF-ARW) is modified to perform a...Configuration  The Advanced Research version of the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF-ARW) V3.6.1 (Skamarock et al. 2008) is applied with 56 vertical...those with more benign weather. On 7 February a trough moved onshore and led to widespread precipitation in the region . More quiescent weather was in

  4. One carbon cycle: Impacts of model integration, ecosystem process detail, model resolution, and initialization data, on projections of future climate mitigation strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fisk, J.; Hurtt, G. C.; le page, Y.; Patel, P. L.; Chini, L. P.; Sahajpal, R.; Dubayah, R.; Thomson, A. M.; Edmonds, J.; Janetos, A. C.

    2013-12-01

    Integrated assessment models (IAMs) simulate the interactions between human and natural systems at a global scale, representing a broad suite of phenomena across the global economy, energy system, land-use, and carbon cycling. Most proposed climate mitigation strategies rely on maintaining or enhancing the terrestrial carbon sink as a substantial contribution to restrain the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, however most IAMs rely on simplified regional representations of terrestrial carbon dynamics. Our research aims to reduce uncertainties associated with forest modeling within integrated assessments, and to quantify the impacts of climate change on forest growth and productivity for integrated assessments of terrestrial carbon management. We developed the new Integrated Ecosystem Demography (iED) to increase terrestrial ecosystem process detail, resolution, and the utilization of remote sensing in integrated assessments. iED brings together state-of-the-art models of human society (GCAM), spatial land-use patterns (GLM) and terrestrial ecosystems (ED) in a fully coupled framework. The major innovative feature of iED is a consistent, process-based representation of ecosystem dynamics and carbon cycle throughout the human, terrestrial, land-use, and atmospheric components. One of the most challenging aspects of ecosystem modeling is to provide accurate initialization of land surface conditions to reflect non-equilibrium conditions, i.e., the actual successional state of the forest. As all plants in ED have an explicit height, it is one of the few ecosystem models that can be initialized directly with vegetation height data. Previous work has demonstrated that ecosystem model resolution and initialization data quality have a large effect on flux predictions at continental scales. Here we use a factorial modeling experiment to quantify the impacts of model integration, process detail, model resolution, and initialization data on projections of

  5. Initial virtual flight test for a dynamically similar aircraft model with control augmentation system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Linliang Guo

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available To satisfy the validation requirements of flight control law for advanced aircraft, a wind tunnel based virtual flight testing has been implemented in a low speed wind tunnel. A 3-degree-of-freedom gimbal, ventrally installed in the model, was used in conjunction with an actively controlled dynamically similar model of aircraft, which was equipped with the inertial measurement unit, attitude and heading reference system, embedded computer and servo-actuators. The model, which could be rotated around its center of gravity freely by the aerodynamic moments, together with the flow field, operator and real time control system made up the closed-loop testing circuit. The model is statically unstable in longitudinal direction, and it can fly stably in wind tunnel with the function of control augmentation of the flight control laws. The experimental results indicate that the model responds well to the operator’s instructions. The response of the model in the tests shows reasonable agreement with the simulation results. The difference of response of angle of attack is less than 0.5°. The effect of stability augmentation and attitude control law was validated in the test, meanwhile the feasibility of virtual flight test technique treated as preliminary evaluation tool for advanced flight vehicle configuration research was also verified.

  6. Initializing the WRF Model with Tropical Cyclone Real-Time Reports Using the Ensemble Kalman Filter Algorithm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Du, Tien Duc; Ngo-Duc, Thanh; Kieu, Chanh

    2017-07-01

    This study presents an approach to assimilate tropical cyclone (TC) real-time reports and the University of Wisconsin-Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CIMSS) Atmospheric Motion Vectors (AMV) data into the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model for TC forecast applications. Unlike current methods in which TC real-time reports are used to either generate a bogus vortex or spin up a model initial vortex, the proposed approach ingests the TC real-time reports through blending a dynamically consistent synthetic vortex structure with the CIMSS-AMV data. The blended dataset is then assimilated into the WRF initial condition, using the local ensemble transform Kalman filter (LETKF) algorithm. Retrospective experiments for a number of TC cases in the northwestern Pacific basin during 2013-2014 demonstrate that this approach could effectively increase both the TC circulation and enhance the large-scale environment that the TCs are embedded in. Further evaluation of track and intensity forecast errors shows that track forecasts benefit more from improvement in the large-scale flow at 4-5-day lead times, whereas the intensity improvement is minimal. While the difference between the track and intensity improvement could be due to a specific model configuration, this result appears to be consistent with the recent reports of insignificant impacts of inner core data assimilation in operational TC models at the long range of 4-5 days. The new approach will be most beneficial for future regional TC models that are directly initialized from very high-resolution global models whose storm initial locations are sufficiently accurate at the initial analysis that there is no need to carry out any artificial vortex removal or filtering steps.

  7. Updated global soil map for the Weather Research and Forecasting model and soil moisture initialization for the Noah land surface model

    Science.gov (United States)

    DY, C. Y.; Fung, J. C. H.

    2016-08-01

    A meteorological model requires accurate initial conditions and boundary conditions to obtain realistic numerical weather predictions. The land surface controls the surface heat and moisture exchanges, which can be determined by the physical properties of the soil and soil state variables, subsequently exerting an effect on the boundary layer meteorology. The initial and boundary conditions of soil moisture are currently obtained via National Centers for Environmental Prediction FNL (Final) Operational Global Analysis data, which are collected operationally in 1° by 1° resolutions every 6 h. Another input to the model is the soil map generated by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations - United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (FAO-UNESCO) soil database, which combines several soil surveys from around the world. Both soil moisture from the FNL analysis data and the default soil map lack accuracy and feature coarse resolutions, particularly for certain areas of China. In this study, we update the global soil map with data from Beijing Normal University in 1 km by 1 km grids and propose an alternative method of soil moisture initialization. Simulations of the Weather Research and Forecasting model show that spinning-up the soil moisture improves near-surface temperature and relative humidity prediction using different types of soil moisture initialization. Explanations of that improvement and improvement of the planetary boundary layer height in performing process analysis are provided.

  8. An Extended, Boolean Model of the Septation Initiation Network in S.Pombe Provides Insights into Its Regulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chasapi, Anastasia; Wachowicz, Paulina; Niknejad, Anne; Collin, Philippe; Krapp, Andrea; Cano, Elena; Simanis, Viesturs; Xenarios, Ioannis

    2015-01-01

    Cytokinesis in fission yeast is controlled by the Septation Initiation Network (SIN), a protein kinase signaling network using the spindle pole body as scaffold. In order to describe the qualitative behavior of the system and predict unknown mutant behaviors we decided to adopt a Boolean modeling approach. In this paper, we report the construction of an extended, Boolean model of the SIN, comprising most SIN components and regulators as individual, experimentally testable nodes. The model uses CDK activity levels as control nodes for the simulation of SIN related events in different stages of the cell cycle. The model was optimized using single knock-out experiments of known phenotypic effect as a training set, and was able to correctly predict a double knock-out test set. Moreover, the model has made in silico predictions that have been validated in vivo, providing new insights into the regulation and hierarchical organization of the SIN.

  9. Effectiveness of Video Self-Modeling to Promote Social Initiations by 3-Year-Olds with Autism Spectrum Disorders

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buggey, Tom

    2012-01-01

    Video Self-Modeling (VSM) provides individuals the opportunity to view themselves performing a task beyond their present functioning level through the careful editing of videos. In this study, a single-case multiple-baseline design was used to determine whether VSM would facilitate social initiations across three young children (M = 3 years 10…

  10. Initiation/Response/Follow-Up, and Response to Intervention: Combining Two Models to Improve Teacher and Student Performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miao, Pei; Heining-Boynton, Audrey L.

    2011-01-01

    The communication pattern of Initiation/Response/Follow-Up (IRF) has long been an important instructional sequence in language classrooms. When language teachers combine IRF with the Response to Intervention (RTI) approach, they create a powerful model to evaluate student oral practice and self-assess effectiveness in creating language communities…

  11. Re-Imagining Initial Multiracial Teacher Education (IMTE) Model through the ODL Philosophy: A Critical Qualitative Meta-Synthesis Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nyoni, J.

    2012-01-01

    This article reports on a critical meta-analysis of empirical studies done by human sciences researchers on the initial multicultural teacher education (IMTE) models in multicultural post-colonial transitional societies with reference to sub-Saharan African states in general and South Africa in particular. Using a critical post-positivist…

  12. Effectiveness of Video Self-Modeling to Promote Social Initiations by 3-Year-Olds with Autism Spectrum Disorders

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buggey, Tom

    2012-01-01

    Video Self-Modeling (VSM) provides individuals the opportunity to view themselves performing a task beyond their present functioning level through the careful editing of videos. In this study, a single-case multiple-baseline design was used to determine whether VSM would facilitate social initiations across three young children (M = 3 years 10…

  13. Initiation/Response/Follow-Up, and Response to Intervention: Combining Two Models to Improve Teacher and Student Performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miao, Pei; Heining-Boynton, Audrey L.

    2011-01-01

    The communication pattern of Initiation/Response/Follow-Up (IRF) has long been an important instructional sequence in language classrooms. When language teachers combine IRF with the Response to Intervention (RTI) approach, they create a powerful model to evaluate student oral practice and self-assess effectiveness in creating language communities…

  14. Experimental model of biofilm implant-related osteomyelitis to test combination biomaterials using biofilms as initial inocula.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Dustin L; Haymond, Bryan S; Woodbury, Kassie L; Beck, J Peter; Moore, David E; Epperson, R Tyler; Bloebaum, Roy D

    2012-07-01

    Currently, the majority of animal models that are used to study biofilm-related infections use planktonic bacterial cells as initial inocula to produce positive signals of infection in biomaterials studies. However, the use of planktonic cells has potentially led to inconsistent results in infection outcomes. In this study, well-established biofilms of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus were grown and used as initial inocula in an animal model of a Type IIIB open fracture. The goal of the work was to establish, for the first time, a repeatable model of biofilm implant-related osteomyelitis, wherein biofilms were used as initial inocula to test combination biomaterials. Results showed that 100% of animals that were treated with biofilms developed osteomyelitis, whereas 0% of animals not treated with biofilm developed infection. The development of this experimental model may lead to an important shift in biofilm and biomaterials research by showing that when biofilms are used as initial inocula, they may provide additional insights into how biofilm-related infections in the clinic develop and how they can be treated with combination biomaterials to eradicate and/or prevent biofilm formation. Copyright © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  15. Onset of acceleration in a Universe initially filled with dark and baryonic matters in nonminimally coupled teleparallel model

    CERN Document Server

    Sadjadi, H Mohseni

    2015-01-01

    A nonminimally coupled quintessence dark energy in teleparallel model of gravity is considered. It is clarified how a matter dominated universe with initial negligible dark energy density can evolve to a late time de Sitter space-time via the $Z_2$ symmetry breaking.

  16. Puzzling initial conditions in the R{sub h} = ct model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bengochea, Gabriel R. [CONICET-Universidad de Buenos Aires, Instituto de Astronomia y Fisica del Espacio (IAFE), Buenos Aires (Argentina); Leon, Gabriel [Universidad de Buenos Aires, Ciudad Universitaria, PabI, Departamento de Fisica, Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, Buenos Aires (Argentina)

    2016-11-15

    In recent years, some studies have drawn attention to the lack of large-angle correlations in the observed cosmic microwave background (CMB) temperature anisotropies with respect to that predicted within the standard ΛCDM model. Lately, it has been argued that such a lack of correlations could be explained in the framework of the so-called R{sub h} = ct model without inflation. The aim of this work is to study whether there is a mechanism to generate, through a quantum field theory, the primordial power spectrum presented by these authors. Specifically, we consider two different scenarios: first, we assume a scalar field dominating the early Universe in the R{sub h} = ct cosmological model, and second, we deal with the possibility of adding an early inflationary phase to the mentioned model. During the analysis of the consistency between the predicted and observed amplitudes of the CMB temperature anisotropies in both scenarios, we run into deep issues which indicate that it is not clear how to characterize the primordial quantum perturbations within the R{sub h} = ct model. (orig.)

  17. Development of Simplified Probabilistic Risk Assessment Model for Seismic Initiating Event

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    S. Khericha; R. Buell; S. Sancaktar; M. Gonzalez; F. Ferrante

    2012-06-01

    ABSTRACT This paper discusses a simplified method to evaluate seismic risk using a methodology built on dividing the seismic intensity spectrum into multiple discrete bins. The seismic probabilistic risk assessment model uses Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s (NRC’s) full power Standardized Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) model as the starting point for development. The seismic PRA models are integrated with their respective internal events at-power SPAR model. This is accomplished by combining the modified system fault trees from the full power SPAR model with seismic event tree logic. The peak ground acceleration is divided into five bins. The g-value for each bin is estimated using the geometric mean of lower and upper values of that particular bin and the associated frequency for each bin is estimated by taking the difference between upper and lower values of that bin. The component’s fragilities are calculated for each bin using the plant data, if available, or generic values of median peak ground acceleration and uncertainty values for the components. For human reliability analysis (HRA), the SPAR HRA (SPAR-H) method is used which requires the analysts to complete relatively straight forward worksheets that include the performance shaping factors (PSFs). The results are then used to estimate human error probabilities (HEPs) of interest. This work is expected to improve the NRC’s ability to include seismic hazards in risk assessments for operational events in support of the reactor oversight program (e.g., significance determination process).

  18. Equilibrium Star Formation In A Constant Q Disk: Model Optimisation and Initial Tests

    CERN Document Server

    Zheng, Zheng; Heckman, Timothy; Thilker, David; Zwaan, Martin

    2013-01-01

    We develop a model for the distribution of the ISM and star formation in galaxies based on recent studies that indicate that galactic disks stabilise to a constant stability parameter, which we combine with prescriptions of how the phases of the ISM are determined and for the Star Formation Law (SFL). The model predicts the gas surface mass density and star formation intensity of a galaxy given its rotation curve, stellar surface mass density and the gas velocity dispersion. This model is tested on radial profiles of neutral and molecular ISM surface mass density and star formation intensity of 12 galaxies selected from the THINGS sample. Our tests focus on intermediate radii. Nevertheless, the model produces reasonable agreement with ISM mass and star formation rate integrated over the central region in all but one case. To optimise the model, we evaluate four recipes for the stability parameter, three recipes for apportioning the ISM into molecular and neutral components, and eight versions of the SFL. We f...

  19. Modeling regional initiation of rainfall-induced shallow landslides in the eastern Umbria Region of central Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salciarini, D.; Godt, J.W.; Savage, W.Z.; Conversini, P.; Baum, R.L.; Michael, J.A.

    2006-01-01

    We model the rainfall-induced initiation of shallow landslides over a broad region using a deterministic approach, the Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-based Slope-stability (TRIGRS) model that couples an infinite-slope stability analysis with a one-dimensional analytical solution for transient pore pressure response to rainfall infiltration. This model permits the evaluation of regional shallow landslide susceptibility in a Geographic Information System framework, and we use it to analyze susceptibility to shallow landslides in an area in the eastern Umbria Region of central Italy. As shown on a landslide inventory map produced by the Italian National Research Council, the area has been affected in the past by shallow landslides, many of which have transformed into debris flows. Input data for the TRIGRS model include time-varying rainfall, topographic slope, colluvial thickness, initial water table depth, and material strength and hydraulic properties. Because of a paucity of input data, we focus on parametric analyses to calibrate and test the model and show the effect of variation in material properties and initial water table conditions on the distribution of simulated instability in the study area in response to realistic rainfall. Comparing the results with the shallow landslide inventory map, we find more than 80% agreement between predicted shallow landslide susceptibility and the inventory, despite the paucity of input data.

  20. Initiation of an inflammatory response in resident intestinal lamina propria cells -use of a human organ culture model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jutta Schröder-Braunstein

    Full Text Available Resident human lamina propria immune cells serve as powerful effectors in host defense. Molecular events associated with the initiation of an intestinal inflammatory response in these cells are largely unknown. Here, we aimed to characterize phenotypic and functional changes induced in these cells at the onset of intestinal inflammation using a human intestinal organ culture model. In this model, healthy human colonic mucosa was depleted of epithelial cells by EDTA treatment. Following loss of the epithelial layer, expression of the inflammatory mediators IL1B, IL6, IL8, IL23A, TNFA, CXCL2, and the surface receptors CD14, TLR2, CD86, CD54 was rapidly induced in resident lamina propria cells in situ as determined by qRT-PCR and immunohistology. Gene microarray analysis of lamina propria cells obtained by laser-capture microdissection provided an overview of global changes in gene expression occurring during the initiation of an intestinal inflammatory response in these cells. Bioinformatic analysis gave insight into signalling pathways mediating this inflammatory response. Furthermore, comparison with published microarray datasets of inflamed mucosa in vivo (ulcerative colitis revealed a significant overlap of differentially regulated genes underlining the in vivo relevance of the organ culture model. Furthermore, genes never been previously associated with intestinal inflammation were identified using this model. The organ culture model characterized may be useful to study molecular mechanisms underlying the initiation of an intestinal inflammatory response in normal mucosa as well as potential alterations of this response in inflammatory bowel disease.

  1. The Gulf of Mexico Research Initiative: A Funding Model for Science, Engineering, and Technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colwell, R. R.

    2016-12-01

    The Deepwater Horizon oil spill, a massive ecological event, resulted in the tragic loss of 11 lives, and an environmental release of more than 130 million gallons of crude oil. Approximately 1.8 million gallons of dispersants were used in remediation efforts. An immediate response by BP was to establish a ten-year research program, with funding of 500 million. The funding was to determine the impact and long-term ecological and public health effects of oil spills and to develop improved preparation in the event of future oil or gas release into the environment. This Gulf of Mexico Research Initiative (GoMRI), established by BP, provided independent leadership for both the program and administration of the 500 million funding, and the Research Board provides oversight, assisted by excellent staff. The Research Board of the GoMRI comprises twenty scientists, many of whom have prior scientific research administrative expertise. The Research Board, in accordance with its charge, develops research programs and carries out their evaluation and oversight, employing the peer review and operational principles of the National Science Foundation and the National Academies of Science. With these guiding principles, the Research Board established procedures for conflict of interest oversight and requesting and evaluating research programs. It has also focused on communicating the research findings accurately and responsibly. The GoMRI Research Board operates with transparency and ensures availability of all scientific results and data. GoMRI, currently midway through its 10-year mandate, has funded more than 3,000 scientists, representing 278 institutions in 42 states and 17 countries, who have produced more than 1,000 peer-reviewed publications to date. The Research Board is exploring mechanisms by which the GoMRI science findings can be communicated to the broader community and the public and to continue availability of data when the program has ended. A major contribution

  2. Self-Consistent Model of Magnetospheric Electric Field, Ring Current, Plasmasphere, and Electromagnetic Ion Cyclotron Waves: Initial Results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gamayunov, K. V.; Khazanov, G. V.; Liemohn, M. W.; Fok, M.-C.; Ridley, A. J.

    2009-01-01

    Further development of our self-consistent model of interacting ring current (RC) ions and electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) waves is presented. This model incorporates large scale magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling and treats self-consistently not only EMIC waves and RC ions, but also the magnetospheric electric field, RC, and plasmasphere. Initial simulations indicate that the region beyond geostationary orbit should be included in the simulation of the magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling. Additionally, a self-consistent description, based on first principles, of the ionospheric conductance is required. These initial simulations further show that in order to model the EMIC wave distribution and wave spectral properties accurately, the plasmasphere should also be simulated self-consistently, since its fine structure requires as much care as that of the RC. Finally, an effect of the finite time needed to reestablish a new potential pattern throughout the ionosphere and to communicate between the ionosphere and the equatorial magnetosphere cannot be ignored.

  3. Promoting Coordinated Development of Community-Based Information Standards for Modeling in Biology: The COMBINE Initiative.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hucka, Michael; Nickerson, David P; Bader, Gary D; Bergmann, Frank T; Cooper, Jonathan; Demir, Emek; Garny, Alan; Golebiewski, Martin; Myers, Chris J; Schreiber, Falk; Waltemath, Dagmar; Le Novère, Nicolas

    2015-01-01

    The Computational Modeling in Biology Network (COMBINE) is a consortium of groups involved in the development of open community standards and formats used in computational modeling in biology. COMBINE's aim is to act as a coordinator, facilitator, and resource for different standardization efforts whose domains of use cover related areas of the computational biology space. In this perspective article, we summarize COMBINE, its general organization, and the community standards and other efforts involved in it. Our goals are to help guide readers toward standards that may be suitable for their research activities, as well as to direct interested readers to relevant communities where they can best expect to receive assistance in how to develop interoperable computational models.

  4. Source modelling of train noise - Literature review and some initial measurements

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang Xuetao; Jonasson, Hans; Holmberg, Kjell

    2000-07-01

    A literature review of source modelling of railway noise is reported. Measurements on a special test rig at Surahammar and on the new railway line between Arlanda and Stockholm City are reported and analyzed. In the analysis the train is modelled as a number of point sources with or without directivity and each source is combined with analytical sound propagation theory to predict the sound propagation pattern best fitting the measured data. Wheel/rail rolling noise is considered to be the most important noise source. The rolling noise can be modelled as an array of moving point sources, which have a dipole-like horizontal directivity and some kind of vertical directivity. In general it is necessary to distribute the point sources on several heights. Based on our model analysis the source heights for the rolling noise should be below the wheel axles and the most important height is about a quarter of wheel diameter above the railheads. When train speeds are greater than 250 km/h aerodynamic noise will become important and even dominant. It may be important for low frequency components only if the train speed is less than 220 km/h. Little data are available for these cases. It is believed that aerodynamic noise has dipole-like directivity. Its spectrum depends on many factors: speed, railway system, type of train, bogies, wheels, pantograph, presence of barriers and even weather conditions. Other sources such as fans, engine, transmission and carriage bodies are at most second order noise sources, but for trains with a diesel locomotive engine the engine noise will be dominant if train speeds are less than about 100 km/h. The Nord 2000 comprehensive model for sound propagation outdoors, together with the source model that is based on the understandings above, can suitably handle the problems of railway noise propagation in one-third octave bands although there are still problems left to be solved.

  5. The effect of a number of selective points in modeling of polymerization reacting Monte Carlo method: studying the initiation reaction

    CERN Document Server

    Sadi, M; Dabir, B

    2003-01-01

    Monte Carlo Method is one of the most powerful techniques to model different processes, such as polymerization reactions. By this method, without any need to solve moment equations, a very detailed information on the structure and properties of polymers are obtained. The number of algorithm repetitions (selected volumes of reactor for modelling which represent the number of initial molecules) is very important in this method. In Monte Carlo method calculations are based on the random number of generations and reaction probability determinations. so the number of algorithm repetition is very important. In this paper, the initiation reaction was considered alone and the importance of number of initiator molecules on the result were studied. It can be concluded that Monte Carlo method will not give accurate results if the number of molecules is not satisfied to be big enough, because in that case , selected volume would not be representative of the whole system.

  6. Optimization approach of background value and initial item for improving prediction precision of GM(1,1) model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yuhong Wang; Qin Liu; Jianrong Tang; Wenbin Cao; Xiaozhong Li

    2014-01-01

    A combination method of optimization of the back-ground value and optimization of the initial item is proposed. The sequences of the unbiased exponential distribution are simulated and predicted through the optimization of the background value in grey differential equations. The principle of the new information priority in the grey system theory and the rationality of the initial item in the original GM(1,1) model are ful y expressed through the improvement of the initial item in the proposed time response function. A numerical example is employed to il ustrate that the proposed method is able to simulate and predict sequences of raw data with the unbiased exponential distribution and has better simulation performance and prediction precision than the original GM(1,1) model relatively.

  7. Unleashed numerical daemons in our pub: Is poor numerical implementation of hydrologic models hurting the Predictions in Ungauged Basins initiative?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, Martyn; Kavetski, Dmitri

    2010-05-01

    Much of the research in the PUB initiative is focused on the analysis and interpretation of model results in well instrumented watersheds, in order to inform appropriate model structures and parameter values for use in ungauged basins. However, many of the models used in PUB share a common characteristic: poor numerical implementation. It is likely that many published conclusions, including (i) parameter sensitivity, optima and uncertainty estimates, and, more disconcertingly, (ii) the interpretation of hydrologic model output to gain insights into internal catchment dynamics, including the relative significance and behavior of different processes, may be questionable due to numerical artifacts introduced by unreliable time stepping schemes. Such lack of attention to numerical schemes has almost certainly hindered progress in the PUB initiative. Here, we comprehensively evaluate several classes of time stepping schemes in terms of numerical fidelity, computational efficiency, and impact on model sensitivity analysis, calibration and prediction. Extensive numerical experiments are carried out using 8 distinct time stepping algorithms and 6 different conceptual hydrological models, applied in the densely gauged experimental Mahurangi catchment as well as in 12 MOPEX basins with diverse physical characteristics and hydroclimatic regimes. Results show that numerical errors of uncontrolled time stepping schemes, which remain widely used in hydrology, routinely dwarf the structural errors of the model conceptualization. This has serious implications for model analysis and predictive use, including inconsistent inferences of parameters and internal states even if the calibrated streamflow predictions are similar. Even when numerical errors allow "getting the right result for the wrong reason", they make the model unduly fragile in predictive mode, as evidenced in validation tests. The extensive analyses in this paper indicate that these deformations are not rare isolated

  8. An effort to improve track and intensity prediction of tropical cyclones through vortex initialization in NCUM-global model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Vivek; Routray, A.; Mallick, Swapan; George, John P.; Rajagopal, E. N.

    2016-05-01

    Tropical cyclones (TCs) have strong impact on socio-economic conditions of the countries like India, Bangladesh and Myanmar owing to its awful devastating power. This brings in the need of precise forecasting system to predict the tracks and intensities of TCs accurately well in advance. However, it has been a great challenge for major operational meteorological centers over the years. Genesis of TCs over data sparse warm Tropical Ocean adds more difficulty to this. Weak and misplaced vortices at initial time are one of the prime sources of track and intensity errors in the Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models. Many previous studies have reported the forecast skill of track and intensity of TC improved due to the assimilation of satellite data along with vortex initialization (VI). Keeping this in mind, an attempt has been made to investigate the impact of vortex initialization for simulation of TC using UK-Met office global model, operational at NCMRWF (NCUM). This assessment is carried out by taking the case of a extremely severe cyclonic storm "Chapala" that occurred over Arabian Sea (AS) from 28th October to 3rd November 2015. Two numerical experiments viz. Vort-GTS (Assimilation of GTS observations with VI) and Vort-RAD (Same as Vort-GTS with assimilation of satellite data) are carried out. This vortex initialization study in NCUM model is first of its type over North Indian Ocean (NIO). The model simulation of TC is carried out with five different initial conditions through 24 hour cycles for both the experiments. The results indicate that the vortex initialization with assimilation of satellite data has a positive impact on the track and intensity forecast, landfall time and position error of the TCs.

  9. Busulfan in infants to adult hematopoietic cell transplant recipients: A population pharmacokinetic model for initial and Bayesian dose personalization

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCune, Jeannine S.; Bemer, Meagan J.; Barrett, Jeffrey S.; Baker, K. Scott; Gamis, Alan S.; Holford, Nicholas H.G.

    2014-01-01

    Purpose Personalizing intravenous (IV) busulfan doses to a target plasma concentration at steady state (Css) is an essential component of hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT). We sought to develop a population pharmacokinetic model to predict IV busulfan doses over a wide age spectrum (0.1 – 66 years) that accounts for differences in age and body size. Experimental design A population pharmacokinetic model based on normal fat mass and maturation based on post-menstrual age was built from 12,380 busulfan concentration-time points obtained after IV busulfan administration in 1,610 HCT recipients. Subsequently, simulation results of the initial dose necessary to achieve a target Css with this model were compared with pediatric-only models. Results A two-compartment model with first-order elimination best fit the data. The population busulfan clearance was 12.4 L/h for an adult male with 62kg normal fat mass (equivalent to 70kg total body weight). Busulfan clearance, scaled to body size – specifically normal fat mass, is predicted to be 95% of the adult clearance at 2.5 years post-natal age. With a target Css of 770 ng/mL, a higher proportion of initial doses achieved the therapeutic window with this age- and size-dependent model (72%) compared to dosing recommended by the Food and Drug Administration (57%) or the European Medicines Agency (70%). Conclusion This is the first population pharmacokinetic model developed to predict initial IV busulfan doses and personalize to a target Css over a wide age spectrum, ranging from infants to adults. PMID:24218510

  10. Observing versus Predicting: Initial Patterns of Filling Predict Long-Term Adherence More Accurately Than High-Dimensional Modeling Techniques.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franklin, Jessica M; Shrank, William H; Lii, Joyce; Krumme, Alexis K; Matlin, Olga S; Brennan, Troyen A; Choudhry, Niteesh K

    2016-02-01

    Despite the proliferation of databases with increasingly rich patient data, prediction of medication adherence remains poor. We proposed and evaluated approaches for improved adherence prediction. We identified Medicare beneficiaries who received prescription drug coverage through CVS Caremark and initiated a statin. A total of 643 variables were identified at baseline from prior claims and linked Census data. In addition, we identified three postbaseline predictors, indicators of adherence to statins during each of the first 3 months of follow-up. We estimated 10 models predicting subsequent adherence, using logistic regression and boosted logistic regression, a nonparametric data-mining technique. Models were also estimated within strata defined by the index days supply. In 77,703 statin initiators, prediction using baseline variables only was poor with maximum cross-validated C-statistics of 0.606 and 0.577 among patients with index supply ≤30 days and >30 days, respectively. Using only indicators of initial statin adherence improved prediction accuracy substantially among patients with shorter initial dispensings (C = 0.827/0.518), and, when combined with investigator-specified variables, prediction accuracy was further improved (C = 0.842/0.596). Observed adherence immediately after initiation predicted future adherence for patients whose initial dispensings were relatively short. © Health Research and Educational Trust.

  11. Facilitating Social Initiations of Preschoolers with Autism Spectrum Disorders Using Video Self-Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buggey, Tom; Hoomes, Grace; Sherberger, Mary Elizabeth; Williams, Sarah

    2011-01-01

    Video self-modeling (VSM) has accumulated a relatively impressive track record in the research literature across behaviors, ages, and types of disabilities. Using only positive imagery, VSM gives individuals the opportunity to view themselves performing a task just beyond their present functioning level via creative editing of videos using VCRs or…

  12. An Initial Critical Summary of Models for Predicting the Attenuation of Radio Waves by Trees

    Science.gov (United States)

    1982-07-01

    the obstr &.. entered lei Stooki 20, It different tro. Report) III. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES PROPAGATION MODELS FOLIAGE PROPAGATION LOSS JUNGLE FOLIAGE...WASHINGTON, DC 20305 RAPID. DEPLOYMENT AGENCY1ATTN• RDJ 6-T MACDILL AFH, FL 33608 Other HQ JEWC ATTN: MR. MESKILL SAN ANTONIO, TX 78243 MR, WILLIAM DANIEL 1

  13. From alcohol initiation to tolerance to problems: Discordant twin modeling of a developmental process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deutsch, Arielle R; Slutske, Wendy S; Lynskey, Michael T; Bucholz, Kathleen K; Madden, Pamela A F; Heath, Andrew C; Martin, Nicholas G

    2017-08-01

    The current study examined a stage-based alcohol use trajectory model to test for potential causal effects of earlier drinking milestones on later drinking milestones in a combined sample of two cohorts of Australian monozygotic and same-sex dizygotic twins (N = 7,398, age M = 30.46, SD = 2.61, 61% male, 56% monozygotic twins). Ages of drinking, drunkenness, regular drinking, tolerance, first nontolerance alcohol use disorder symptom, and alcohol use disorder symptom onsets were assessed retrospectively. Ages of milestone attainment (i.e., age-of-onset) and time between milestones (i.e., time-to-event) were examined via frailty models within a multilevel discordant twin design. For age-of-onset models, earlier ages of onset of antecedent drinking milestones increased hazards for earlier ages of onset for more proximal subsequent drinking milestones. For the time-to-event models, however, earlier ages of onset for the "starting" milestone decreased risk for a shorter time period between the starting and the "ending" milestone. Earlier age of onset of intermediate milestones between starting and ending drinking milestones had the opposite effect, increasing risk for a shorter time period between the starting and ending milestones. These results are consistent with a causal effect of an earlier age of drinking milestone onset on temporally proximal subsequent drinking milestones.

  14. 3D Modeling and Printing in History/Social Studies Classrooms: Initial Lessons and Insights

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maloy, Robert; Trust, Torrey; Kommers, Suzan; Malinowski, Allison; LaRoche, Irene

    2017-01-01

    This exploratory study examines the use of 3D technology by teachers and students in four middle school history/social studies classrooms. As part of a university-developed 3D Printing 4 Teaching & Learning project, teachers integrated 3D modeling and printing into curriculum topics in world geography, U.S. history, and government/civics.…

  15. Work information and emotional support of self-initiated expatriates: multilevel mediation model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kubovcikova, Annamária; van Bakel, Marian

    of the rated ties is the context in which expatriates are embedded. It was therefore analyzed utilizing a multilevel mediation model. We have hypothesized that all learned characteristics will be determining the frequency of interaction and thus the level and type of support received. Host country knowledge...

  16. Diagram, a Learning Environment for Initiation to Object-Oriented Modeling with UML Class Diagrams

    Science.gov (United States)

    Py, Dominique; Auxepaules, Ludovic; Alonso, Mathilde

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents Diagram, a learning environment for object-oriented modelling (OOM) with UML class diagrams. Diagram an open environment, in which the teacher can add new exercises without constraints on the vocabulary or the size of the diagram. The interface includes methodological help, encourages self-correcting and self-monitoring, and…

  17. Diagram, a Learning Environment for Initiation to Object-Oriented Modeling with UML Class Diagrams

    Science.gov (United States)

    Py, Dominique; Auxepaules, Ludovic; Alonso, Mathilde

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents Diagram, a learning environment for object-oriented modelling (OOM) with UML class diagrams. Diagram an open environment, in which the teacher can add new exercises without constraints on the vocabulary or the size of the diagram. The interface includes methodological help, encourages self-correcting and self-monitoring, and…

  18. Mexico City air quality research initiative, volume 3, modeling and simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mauzy, A. [ed.] [Los Alamos National Lab., NM (United States)

    1994-06-01

    The objective of the modeling and simulation task was to develop, test, and apply an appropriate set of models that could translate emission changes into air quality changes. Specifically, we wanted to develop models that could describe how existing measurements of ozone (O{sub 3}), carbon monoxide (CO), and sulfur dioxide (SO{sub 2}) would be expected to change if their emissions were changed. The modeling must be able to address the effects of difference in weather conditions and changes in land use as well as the effects of changes in emission levels. It must also be able to address the effects of changes in the nature and distribution of the emissions as well as changes in the total emissions. A second objective was to provide an understanding of the conditions that lead to poor air quality in Mexico City. We know in a general sense that Mexico City`s poor air quality is the result of large quantities of emissions in a confined area that is subject to light winds, but we did not know much about many aspects of the problem. For example, is the air quality on a given day primarily the result of emissions on that day...or is there an important carryover from previous nights and days? With a good understanding of the important meteorological circumstances that lead to poor air quality, we learn what it take duce an accurate forecast of impending quality so that we can determine the advisability of emergency measures.

  19. Atmospheric methane and carbon dioxide from SCIAMACHY satellite data: initial comparison with chemistry and transport models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Buchwitz

    2004-11-01

    Full Text Available The remote sensing of the atmospheric greenhouse gases methane (CH4 and carbon dioxide (CO2 in the troposphere from instrumentation aboard satellites is a new area of research. In this manuscript, results obtained from observations of the up-welling radiation in the near-infrared by SCIAMACHY (Scanning Imaging Absorption spectroMeter for Atmospheric CHartographY, which flies on board ENVISAT, are presented. Vertical columns of CH4, CO2 and oxygen (O2 have been retrieved and the (air or O2-normalized CH4 and CO2 column amounts, the dry air column averaged mixing ratios XCH4 and XCO2 derived. In this manuscript the first results, obtained by using the version 0.4 of the Weighting Function Modified (WFM DOAS retrieval algorithm applied to SCIAMACHY data, are described and compared with global models. This is an important step in assessing the quality and information content of the data products derived from SCIAMACHY observations. This study investigates the behaviour of CO2 and CH4 in the period from January to October 2003. The SCIAMACHY greenhouse gas column amounts and their mixing ratios for cloud free scenes over land are shown to be in reasonable agreement with models. Over the ocean, as a result of the lower surface spectral reflectance and resultant low signal to noise with the exception of sun glint conditions, the accuracy of the individual data products is poorer. The measured methane column amounts agree with the model columns within a few percent. The inter-hemispheric difference of the methane mixing ratios, determined from single day cloud free measurements over land, is in the range 30–110 ppbv and in reasonable agreement with the corresponding model data (48–71 ppbv. For the set of individual measurements the standard deviations of the difference with respect to the models are in the range ~100

  20. Modeling the downward transport of {sup 210}Pb in Peatlands: Initial Penetration‐Constant Rate of Supply (IP-CRS) model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Olid, Carolina, E-mail: olid.carolina@gmail.com [Department of Ecology and Environmental Science, Umeå University, SE-90187, Umeå (Sweden); Diego, David [Department of Earth Science, University of Bergen, NO-5020 Bergen (Norway); Garcia-Orellana, Jordi [Departament de Física, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, E-08193 Bellaterra (Spain); Institut de Ciència i Tecnologia Ambientals (ICTA), Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, E-08193 Bellaterra (Spain); Cortizas, Antonio Martínez [Departamento de Edafoloxía e Química Agrícola, Universidade de Santiago de Compostela, E-15782 Santiago de Compostela (Spain); Klaminder, Jonatan [Department of Ecology and Environmental Science, Umeå University, SE-90187, Umeå (Sweden)

    2016-01-15

    The vertical distribution of {sup 210}Pb is commonly used to date peat deposits accumulated over the last 100–150 years. However, several studies have questioned this method because of an apparent post-depositional mobility of {sup 210}Pb within some peat profiles. In this study, we introduce the Initial Penetration–Constant Rate of Supply (IP-CRS) model for calculating ages derived from {sup 210}Pb profiles that are altered by an initial migration of the radionuclide. This new, two-phased, model describes the distribution of atmospheric-derived {sup 210}Pb ({sup 210}Pb{sub xs}) in peat taking into account both incorporation of {sup 210}Pb into the accumulating peat matrix as well as an initial flushing of {sup 210}Pb through the uppermost peat layers. The validity of the IP-CRS model is tested in four anomalous {sup 210}Pb peat records that showed some deviations from the typical exponential decay profile not explained by variations in peat accumulation rates. Unlike the most commonly used {sup 210}Pb-dating model (Constant Rate of Supply (CRS)), the IP-CRS model estimates peat accumulation rates consistent with typical growth rates for peatlands from the same areas. Confidence in the IP-CRS chronology is also provided by the good agreement with independent chronological markers (i.e. {sup 241}Am and {sup 137}Cs). Our results showed that the IP-CRS can provide chronologies from peat records where {sup 210}Pb mobility is evident, being a valuable tool for studies reconstructing past environmental changes using peat archives during the Anthropocene. - Highlights: • Accurate age dating of peat and sediment cores is critical for evaluating change. • A new {sup 210}Pb dating model that includes vertical transport of {sup 210}Pb was developed. • The IP-CRS model provided consistent peat accumulation rates. • The IP-CRS ages were consistent with independent chronological markers. • The IP-CRS model derives peat ages where downward {sup 210}Pb transport is

  1. Review on gas-voiding models for HCDA (Hypothetical Core Disruptive Accident) initiating phase in LMR analysis (I)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chang, W. P.; Kwon, Y. M.; Hahn, D. H.; Suk, S. D. [KAERI, Taejon (Korea, Republic of)

    1999-12-01

    The present review report introduces the existing analysis codes and physical modeling of two-phase flow associated with initiating event of HCDA in Liquid Metal Reactors for the effective study in the future, because the related research has been systematically carried out in Korea compared with other areas. The description in this report is specifically addressed to the results yielded from careful review of the technical concepts on the two-phase flow modeling in the SAS2A code which was developed in ANL. The report is prepared in 2 parts based on the definite physical phenomena. The liquid slug and gas behavior models are main representations in the part (I) and (II), respectively. In this regard, it is expected that this report provide a fundamental knowledge on the two-phase flow model in LMR and, thus, contribute to establishment of the necessary HCDA analysis technology concerned with the LMR development in Korea. (author)

  2. Impact of high resolution land surface initialization in Indian summer monsoon simulation using a regional climate model

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    C K Unnikrishnan; M Rajeevan; S Vijaya Bhaskara Rao

    2016-06-01

    The direct impact of high resolution land surface initialization on the forecast bias in a regional climatemodel in recent years over Indian summer monsoon region is investigated. Two sets of regional climatemodel simulations are performed, one with a coarse resolution land surface initial conditions and secondone used a high resolution land surface data for initial condition. The results show that all monsoonyears respond differently to the high resolution land surface initialization. The drought monsoon year2009 and extended break periods were more sensitive to the high resolution land surface initialization.These results suggest that the drought monsoon year predictions can be improved with high resolutionland surface initialization. Result also shows that there are differences in the response to the land surfaceinitialization within the monsoon season. Case studies of heat wave and a monsoon depression simulationshow that, the model biases were also improved with high resolution land surface initialization. Theseresults show the need for a better land surface initialization strategy in high resolution regional modelsfor monsoon forecasting.

  3. Application of Radar Reflectivity Factor in Initializing Cloud-Resolving Mesoscale Model. Part Ⅱ: Numerical Simulation Experiments

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LIU Hongya; XU Haiming; XUE Jishan; HU Zhijin; SHEN Tongli

    2008-01-01

    Microphysics elements and vertical velocity retrieved were incorporated using the nudging method into the initial data assimilation of GRAPES (Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System) model.Simulation experiments indicated that nudging technique was effective in forcing the model forecast gradually consistent to the observations, yielding the thermodynamically and dynamically balanced analysis field. As viewed from the simulation results, water vapor is vital to precipitation, and it is a governing factor for the amount and duration of precipitation. The initial cloud water, rain water, and vertical velocity determine the strength distribution of convection and precipitation at the beginning time of forecast; the horizontal wind field steers the motion of the mesoscale weather system embedded in and impacts the position of precipitation zone to a large extent. The simulation experiments show that the influence of the initial retrieval data on prediction weakens with the increase of forecast time, and within the first hour of forecast, the retrieval data have an important impact on the evolution of the weather system, but its influence becomes trivial after the first three hours. Changing the nudging coefficient and the integral time-spacing of numerical model will bring some influences to the results. Herein only one radar reflectivity was used, the radar observations did not cover the whole model domain, and some empirical parameters were used in the retrieval method, therefore some differences still lie between simulation and observation to a certain extent, and further studies on several aspects are expected.

  4. Modeling early sexual initiation among young adolescents using quantum and continuous behavior change methods: implications for HIV prevention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Xinguang; Lunn, Sonja; Harris, Carole; Li, Xiaoming; Deveaux, Lynette; Marshall, Sharon; Cottrell, Leslie; Stanton, Bonita

    2010-10-01

    Behavioral research and prevention intervention science efforts have largely been based on hypotheses of linear or rational behavior change. Additional advances in the field may result from the integration of quantum behavior change and catastrophe models. Longitudinal data from a randomized trial for 1241 pre-adolescents 9-12 years old who self-described as virgin were analyzed. Data for 469 virgins in the control group were included for linear and cusp catastrophe models to describe sexual initiation; data for the rest in the intervention group were added for program effect assessment. Self-reported likelihood to have sex was positively associated with actual initiation of sex (OR = 1.72, 95% CI: 1.43-2.06, R² = 0.13). Receipt of a behavioral prevention intervention based on a cognitive model prevented 15.6% (33.0% vs. 48.6%, OR = 0.52, 95% CI: 0.24-1.11) of the participants from initiating sex among only those who reported 'very likely to have sex.' The beta coefficients for the cubic term of the usp assessing three bifurcating variables (planning to have sex, intrinsic rewards from sex and self-efficacy for abstinence) were 0.0726, 0.1116 and 0.1069 respectively; R² varied from 0.49 to 0.54 (p sexual initiation, quantum change has contributed more than continuous change in describing sexual initiation among young adolescents, suggesting the need for quantum change and chaotic models to advance behavioral prevention of HIV/AIDS.

  5. Application of the GRAAL model to leaching experiments with SON68 nuclear glass in initially pure water

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Frugier, P., E-mail: pierre.frugier@cea.f [CEA Marcoule, DTCD/SECM/LCLT, BP 17171, 30207 Bagnols-sur-Ceze Cedex (France); Chave, T. [ICSM Site de Marcoule, DEN/MAR/ICSM/LSFC, UMR 5257, BP 17171, 30207 Bagnols-sur-Ceze Cedex (France); Gin, S. [CEA Marcoule, DTCD/SECM/LCLT, BP 17171, 30207 Bagnols-sur-Ceze Cedex (France); Lartigue, J.-E. [CEA Cadarache, DEN/CAD/DTN/SMTM/LMTE, 13108 Saint-Paul-Lez-Durance Cedex (France)

    2009-08-01

    Based on a review of the current state of knowledge concerning the aqueous alteration of SON68 nuclear glass we have proposed a mechanistic model, GRAAL (Glass Reactivity with Allowance for the Alteration Layer) [P. Frugier, S. Gin, Y. Minet, T. Chave, B. Bonin, N. Godon, J.E. Lartigue, P. Jollivet, A. Ayral, L. De Windt, G. Santarini, J. Nucl. Mater. 380 (2008) 8]. This article describes how the GRAAL model hypotheses are solved using a calculation code coupling chemistry and transport. The geochemical solution of this model combines three major phenomena: chemical equilibria in solution, water and ion transport by convection or diffusion, and element diffusion through the passivating reactive interphase. The model results are compared with experimental data for SON68 glass leached in initially pure water both in a closed system and in renewed media. The comparison shows the model very satisfactorily accounts for variations in the pH and the element concentrations in solution as a function of time, the glass surface area in contact with solution, and the solution renewal rate. This success is due to the fact that the diffusion of elements through the alteration gel is taken into account in the model. This mechanism cannot be disregarded under most experimental conditions - if only to predict the solution pH - and must therefore be an integral part of the geochemical model.

  6. A micromechanics-inspired constitutive model for shape-memory alloys that accounts for initiation and saturation of phase transformation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelly, Alex; Stebner, Aaron P.; Bhattacharya, Kaushik

    2016-12-01

    A constitutive model to describe macroscopic elastic and transformation behaviors of polycrystalline shape-memory alloys is formulated using an internal variable thermodynamic framework. In a departure from prior phenomenological models, the proposed model treats initiation, growth kinetics, and saturation of transformation distinctly, consistent with physics revealed by recent multi-scale experiments and theoretical studies. Specifically, the proposed approach captures the macroscopic manifestations of three micromechanial facts, even though microstructures are not explicitly modeled: (1) Individual grains with favorable orientations and stresses for transformation are the first to nucleate martensite, and the local nucleation strain is relatively large. (2) Then, transformation interfaces propagate according to growth kinetics to traverse networks of grains, while previously formed martensite may reorient. (3) Ultimately, transformation saturates prior to 100% completion as some unfavorably-oriented grains do not transform; thus the total transformation strain of a polycrystal is modest relative to the initial, local nucleation strain. The proposed formulation also accounts for tension-compression asymmetry, processing anisotropy, and the distinction between stress-induced and temperature-induced transformations. Consequently, the model describes thermoelastic responses of shape-memory alloys subject to complex, multi-axial thermo-mechanical loadings. These abilities are demonstrated through detailed comparisons of simulations with experiments.

  7. Innovation of Ozone Initial Concentration and Boundary Condition for Models-3 Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) Modeling System Using Ozone Climatology and Its Impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, S.; Vukovich, F. M.; Ching, J.; Gilliland, A.

    2002-05-01

    Models-3/CMAQ system is designed to provide a comprehensive and flexible modeling tool for states and other government agencies, and for scientific studies. The current setting of initial concentrations and boundary condition (ICBC) of air species for CMAQ system represents clean ambient condition in the eastern-half of the US, and as such. The ozone ICBC differed from observational values, significantly at upper troposphere. Because of the stratosphere-troposphere exchange, the upper troposphere may contain high concentrations of ozone (hundreds of ppbv). However the current ICBC artificially set ozone level as 70ppbv in upper troposphere throughout model domain. The large difference of standard ozone ICBC from realistic situation becomes considerable uncertainty source of CMAQ system. The purpose of this research is to improve ICBC setting for Models-3/CMAQ modeling system, and to assess the influence of introducing stratospheric ozone into troposphere on regional and urban air quality and on the tropospheric ozone budget. The approach taken is to perform a series of sensitivity studies on ICBC with CMAQ. The simulation covers the entire US with 108km grid resolution from July 2 to 12 of 1988. The domain divide in 34 layers vertically up to 40mbar. In addition to the base case with standard ICBC, ozone initial concentration and boundary condition are generated based on ozone climatology (Logan, 1999), which was derived from surface, satellite, and ozonesonde data across the globe. This new ICBC enables CMAQ model to study ozone cross-tropopause flux transporting to lower troposphere, and to analyze the impact of intercontinental ozone transport. The tropospheric ozone residue (TOR) data is used to compare with modeling tropospheric ozone budget for evaluation of CMAQ performance. Since ozone climatology was based on observation, the derived ozone ICBC are in better agreement with the ``real'' atmosphere than standard ICBC. CMAQ simulations with ozone climatology

  8. Atmospheric methane and carbon dioxide from SCIAMACHY satellite data: initial comparison with chemistry and transport models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Buchwitz

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available The remote sensing of the atmospheric greenhouse gases methane (CH4 and carbon dioxide (CO2 in the troposphere from instrumentation aboard satellites is a new area of research. In this manuscript, results obtained from observations of the up-welling radiation in the near-infrared by SCIAMACHY on board ENVISAT are presented. Vertical columns of CH4, CO2 and oxygen (O2 have been retrieved and the (air or O2-normalised CH4 and CO2 column amounts, the dry air column averaged mixing ratios XCH4 and XCO2 derived. In this manuscript the first results, obtained by using the version 0.4 of the Weighting Function Modified (WFM DOAS retrieval algorithm applied to SCIAMACHY data, are described and compared with global models. For the set of individual cloud free measurements over land the standard deviation of the difference with respect to the models is in the range ~100–200 ppbv (5–10% for XCH4 and ~14–32 ppmv (4–9% for XCO2. The inter-hemispheric difference of the methane mixing ratio, as determined from single day data, is in the range 30–110 ppbv and in reasonable agreement with the corresponding model data (48–71 ppbv. The weak inter-hemispheric difference of the CO2 mixing ratio can also be detected with single day data. The spatiotemporal pattern of the measured and the modelled XCO2 are in reasonable agreement. However, the amplitude of the difference between the maximum and the minimum for SCIAMACHY XCO2 is about ±20 ppmv which is about a factor of four larger than the variability of the model data which is about ±5 ppmv. More studies are needed to explain the observed differences. The XCO2 model field shows low CO2 concentrations beginning of January 2003 over a spatially extended CO2 sink region located in southern tropical/sub-tropical Africa. The SCIAMACHY data also show low CO2 mixing ratios over this area. According to the model the sink region becomes a source region about six months later and exhibits higher mixing ratios

  9. Reactive flow modeling of initial density effect on divergence JB-9014 detonation driving

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Xin; Huang, Kuibang; Zheng, Miao

    2016-06-01

    A serious of experiments were designed and the results were represented in this paper, in which 2mm thickness cooper shells were impacted by explosives named JB-9014 with different densities, and the surface velocities of the OFHC shells were measured. The comparison of experimental data shows the free surface velocity of the OFHC shell increase with the IHE density. Numerical modeling, which occupied phenomenological reactive flow rate model using the two-dimensional Lagrange hydrodynamic code, were carried out to simulate the above experiments, and empirical adjustments on detonation velocity and pressure and Pier Tang's adjustments on EOS of detonation products were both introduced in our numerical simulation work. The computational results agree well with that of experiments, and the numerical results with original parameters of products and the adjusted ones of JB-9014 could describe the density effect distinctly.

  10. Modelling and Initial Validation of the DYMO Routing Protocol for Mobile Ad-Hoc Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Espensen, Kristian Asbjørn Leth; Kjeldsen, Mads Keblov; Kristensen, Lars Michael

    2008-01-01

    A mobile ad-hoc network (MANET) is an infrastructureless network established by a set of mobile devices using wireless communication. The Dynamic MANET On-demand (DYMO) protocol is a routing protocol for multi-hop communication in MANETs currently under development by the Internet Engineering Task...... Force (IETF). This paper presents a Coloured Petri Net (CPN) model of the mandatory parts of the DYMO protocol, and shows how scenario-based state space exploration has been used to validate key properties of the protocol. Our CPN modelling and verification work has spanned two revisions of the DYMO...... protocol specification and have had direct impact on the most recent version of the protocol specification....

  11. Model of porous aluminium oxide growth during initial stage of anodization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aryslanova, E. M.; Alfimov, A. V.; Chivilikhin, S. A.

    2014-10-01

    Currently, the development of nanotechnology and metamaterials requires the ability to obtain regular self-assembled structures with different parameters. One such structure is porous alumina in which the pores grow perpendicular to the substrate and are hexagonally packed. Pore size and the distance between them can be varied depending on the anodization voltage, the electrolyte and the anodization time (pore diameter - from 2 to 350 nm, the distance between the pores - from 5 to 50 nm). At the moment, there are different models describing the process of anodizing aluminum, in this paper we propose a model that takes into account the effect of layers of aluminum, aluminum oxide, and the electrolyte, as well as the influence of the effect of surface diffusion.

  12. Modeling of asphalt by means of discrete element method – an initial study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Feng, Huan; Hededal, Ole; Stang, Henrik

    type of numerical simulation method which allows the finite displacement and rotation of discrete particles, making it an excellent tool to simulate the complex micro interaction between aggregate particles within an asphalt mixture, [3],[4] . In this research, PFC3D – a commercial DEM program...... of conducting time-consuming and lab-costly procedures. The use of numerical models, capable of reducing greatly the testing cost, has shown great potential in characterizing asphalt-aggregate mixtures for both material evaluation and structural design purposes, [1],[2]. Discrete element method (DEM) is one...... – will be applied. The work presented here will focus on the discrete element method as a tool for modelling composite materials, i.e. determination of a representative volume; boundary conditions; characterisation of the components mastic (binder + filler) and aggregates; and establishment of virtual test samples...

  13. Simple electrical model and initial experiments for intra-body communications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Y M; Pun, S H; Du, M; Mak, P U; Vai, M I

    2009-01-01

    Intra-Body Communication(IBC) is a short range "wireless" communication technique appeared in recent years. This technique relies on the conductive property of human tissue to transmit the electric signal among human body. This is beneficial for devices networking and sensors among human body, and especially suitable for wearable sensors, telemedicine system and home health care system as in general the data rates of physiologic parameters are low. In this article, galvanic coupling type IBC application on human limb was investigated in both its mathematical model and related experiments. The experimental results showed that the proposed mathematical model was capable in describing the galvanic coupling type IBC under low frequency. Additionally, the calculated result and experimental result also indicated that the electric signal induced by the transmitters of IBC can penetrate deep into human muscle and thus, provide an evident that IBC is capable of acting as networking technique for implantable devices.

  14. Sensitivity of 96 and 120-hour Numerical Model Tropical Cyclone Position Forecasts to Initial Position Errors

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-03-27

    to thank my Lord and Savior Jesus Christ who has graciously granted me the opportunities in this life. Secondly, to my beautiful wife, I am indebted... original Matrix Laboratory (MATLAB R©) software routine performed numerical computations using JTWC best track data, JTWC warning bulletins, and GFS...weighting function and the model parameter values at the model’s original grid resolution, but regardless of the ultimate grid resolution, the vortex

  15. A Multi-Scale Modeling Framework for Shear Initiated Reactions in Energetic Materials

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-07-01

    of the dissipative particle dynamics method ( DPD -E) is used for the mesoscale modeling portion of this study. DPD -E is a particle-based mesoscale...method that conserves both momentum and energy, while allowing the mesoparticles to exchange both viscous and thermal energy [11,12]. In the DPD -E...Figure 3. Fig. 3. Sample DPD -E simulation configuration of sheared material just prior to release of elastic energy. Verification of Approach

  16. Initial evaluation of a canine stifle arthrotomy post-operative pain model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tomas, A; Bledsoe, D; Wall, S; Davidson, G; Lascelles, B D X

    2015-06-01

    Most models of acute post-operative orthopedic pain involve the injection of a clinically irrelevant pro-inflammatory agent. The ideal model should, however, be clinically relevant and allow full functional recovery of enrolled animals after research is completed. This study explored the validity of a model employing arthrotomy and objectively measured limb use. Six purpose-bred Beagles underwent arthrotomies on each stifle with a washout period in between. Using a randomized crossover design, each dog received placebo and an extended-release buprenorphine (ER-Bup) preparation. Static and dynamic ground reaction forces (GRFs) were measured prior to and for 72 h following surgery using a pressure sensitive walkway (PSW). GRFs for each hind limb were compared using difference (delta), and symmetry indices (SI). The effects of surgery and of treatment were analyzed using repeated measures ANCOVA. The results indicated significantly decreased limb use compared to baseline for placebo, and significantly increased limb use in the ER-Bup group over placebo at all times for % bodyweight distribution (%BWdistrib), peak vertical force (PVF) and vertical impulse (VI). There was a significant treatment by time interaction for velocity (P = 0.03) and %BWdistrib (P = 0.01, 0.003). Overall, the data show that reduced limb use was present for at least 72 h following arthrotomy. In addition, the use of the ER-Bup analgesic decreased lameness, confirming the validity of this approach as a model of post-operative pain. Subjective assessments did not detect the pain-inducing effects of arthrotomy or pain-alleviating effects of treatment, and subjective measures of procedural pain in research dogs need to be developed.

  17. AN INITIAL DESIGN OF ISO 19152:2012 LADM BASED VALUATION AND TAXATION DATA MODEL

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cagdas, Volkan; Kara, A.; van Oosterom, P.

    2016-01-01

    A fiscal registry or database is supposed to record geometric, legal, physical, economic, and environmental characteristics in relation to property units, which are subject to immovable property valuation and taxation. Apart from procedural standards, there is no internationally accepted data...... standard that defines the semantics of fiscal databases. The ISO 19152:2012 Land Administration Domain Model (LADM), as an international land administration standard focuses on legal requirements, but considers out of scope specifications of external information systems including valuation and taxation...

  18. Modeling of wind-initiated liberation of fungal propagules from host plant leaves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gonzalinajec, Trevor

    2014-11-01

    Successful airborne propagule dispersal must begin with liberation into the air. The physical shedding mechanism of airborne propagules in the 100--250 μm size range are not well understood. Many fungal plant pathogens have propagules in this size range that are shed from the bottom of infected leaves. If turbulent air flow is sufficient to liberate the sporocarps of fungi from leaves then the aerodynamic forces exerted must be sufficient to overcome adhesive forces. In this study I have sought to quantify the magnitude and direction of these aerodynamic forces and their causal flow fields with dynamically scaled physical models. I chose a genus of powdery mildew because maturation of the sporocarp entails morphological changes that lever the sporocarp further away from the leaf surface and out of the viscous boundary layer. Consequently I varied the sporocarp morphology, the boundary layer thickness, and the flow velocity as forces on models were measured with a transducer. Additionally I analyzed the fluid velocity around the models using PIV, which allowed for quantification of the relative importance of shear forces and pressure-gradient forces. The results suggest that forces from steady and unsteady wind alike are insufficient to explain liberation.

  19. Modelling initial mortality of Abies religiosa in a crown fire in Mexico

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Temiño-Villota, S.; Rodríguez-Trejo, D.A.; Molina Terrén, D.M.; Ryan, K.

    2016-07-01

    Aim of the study: The objectives of this work were to determine which morphological and fire severity variables may help explain the mortality of adult Abies religiosa (Kunth) Schltdl. & Cham., to model the probability of this species after being affected by crown fire, and to obtain more elements to classify the sacred fir in terms of fire resistance. This type of studies are relevant to estimate the impact of crown fires on the climax forests that forms this species. Area of study: The burned forest was located in the southern Mexico City, borough. Material and methods: Morphological variables and fire severity indicators were collected for 335 Abies religiosa trees burned by a mixed severity fire. Logistic regression was used to analyze data and develop models that best explained tree mortality. Main results: Survival was 26.9%. The models for height (p≤0.0001), diameter at breast height (p=0.0082), crown length (p≤0.0001) and crown base height (p≤0.0001) were significant, with a negative relationship between each one of these variables and probability of mortality. The significant severity variables were lethal scorch height (p≤0.0001) and crown kill (p≤ 0.0001), which have a direct relationship with probability of mortality. Highlights: This species is moderately fire-resistant. Crown kill ≥ 70% markedly increases mortality. Silvicultural activities such as pruning, thinning and fuel management can reduce the risk of crown fires. (Author)

  20. A Three-Dimensional Babcock-Leighton Solar Dynamo Model: Initial Results with Axisymmetric Flows

    CERN Document Server

    Miesch, Mark S

    2015-01-01

    The main objective of this paper is to introduce the STABLE (Surface flux Transport And Babcock-LEighton) solar dynamo model. STABLE is a 3D Babcock-Leighton/Flux Transport dynamo model in which the source of poloidal field is the explicit emergence, distortion, and dispersal of bipolar magnetic regions (BMRs). Here we describe the STABLE model in more detail than we have previously and we verify it by reproducing a 2D mean-field benchmark. We also present some representative dynamo simulations, focusing on the special case of kinematic magnetic induction and axisymmetric flow fields. Not all solutions are supercritical; it can be a challenge for the BL mechanism to sustain the dynamo when the turbulent diffusion near the surface is $\\geq 10^{12}$ cm$^2$ s$^{-1}$. However, if BMRs are sufficiently large, deep, and numerous, then sustained, cyclic, dynamo solutions can be found that exhibit solar-like features. Furthermore, we find that the shearing of radial magnetic flux by the surface differential rotation ...

  1. A three-dimensional Babcock-Leighton solar dynamo model: Initial results with axisymmetric flows

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miesch, Mark S.; Teweldebirhan, Kinfe

    2016-10-01

    The main objective of this paper is to introduce the STABLE (Surface flux Transport And Babcock-LEighton) solar dynamo model. STABLE is a 3D Babcock-Leighton/Flux Transport dynamo model in which the source of poloidal field is the explicit emergence, distortion, and dispersal of bipolar magnetic regions (BMRs). Here we describe the STABLE model in more detail than we have previously and we verify it by reproducing a 2D mean-field benchmark. We also present some representative dynamo simulations, focusing on the special case of kinematic magnetic induction and axisymmetric flow fields. Not all solutions are supercritical; it can be a challenge for the BL mechanism to sustain the dynamo when the turbulent diffusion near the surface is ⩾ 1012 cm2 s-1. However, if BMRs are sufficiently large, deep, and numerous, then sustained, cyclic, dynamo solutions can be found that exhibit solar-like features. Furthermore, we find that the shearing of radial magnetic flux by the surface differential rotation can account for most of the net toroidal flux generation in each hemisphere, as has been recently argued for the Sun by Cameron and Schüssler (2015).

  2. Modelling initial mortality of Abies religiosa in a crown fire in Mexico

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Salomé Temiño-Villota

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Aim of study: The objectives of this work were to determine which morphological and fire severity variables may help explain the mortality of adult Abies religiosa (Kunth Schltdl. & Cham., to model the probability of this species after being affected by crown fire, and to obtain more elements to classify the sacred fir in terms of fire resistance. This type of studies are relevant to estimate the impact of crown fires on the climax forests that forms this species.Area of study: The burned forest was located in the southern Mexico City, borough.Material and methods: Morphological variables and fire severity indicators were collected for 335 Abies religiosa trees burned by a mixed severity fire. Logistic regression was used to analyze data and develop models that best explained tree mortality.Main results: Survival was 26.9%. The models for height (p≤0.0001, diameter at breast height (p=0.0082, crown length (p≤0.0001 and crown base height (p≤0.0001 were significant, with a negative relationship between each one of these variables and probability of mortality. The significant severity variables were lethal scorch height (p≤0.0001 and crown kill (p≤ 0.0001, which have a direct relationship with probability of mortality.Highlights: This species is moderately fire-resistant. Crown kill ≥ 70% markedly increases mortality. Silvicultural activities such as pruning, thinning and fuel management can reduce the risk of crown fires.

  3. Mathematical Modelling of a Brain Tumour Initiation and Early Development: A Coupled Model of Glioblastoma Growth, Pre-Existing Vessel Co-Option, Angiogenesis and Blood Perfusion.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yan Cai

    Full Text Available We propose a coupled mathematical modelling system to investigate glioblastoma growth in response to dynamic changes in chemical and haemodynamic microenvironments caused by pre-existing vessel co-option, remodelling, collapse and angiogenesis. A typical tree-like architecture network with different orders for vessel diameter is designed to model pre-existing vasculature in host tissue. The chemical substances including oxygen, vascular endothelial growth factor, extra-cellular matrix and matrix degradation enzymes are calculated based on the haemodynamic environment which is obtained by coupled modelling of intravascular blood flow with interstitial fluid flow. The haemodynamic changes, including vessel diameter and permeability, are introduced to reflect a series of pathological characteristics of abnormal tumour vessels including vessel dilation, leakage, angiogenesis, regression and collapse. Migrating cells are included as a new phenotype to describe the migration behaviour of malignant tumour cells. The simulation focuses on the avascular phase of tumour development and stops at an early phase of angiogenesis. The model is able to demonstrate the main features of glioblastoma growth in this phase such as the formation of pseudopalisades, cell migration along the host vessels, the pre-existing vasculature co-option, angiogenesis and remodelling. The model also enables us to examine the influence of initial conditions and local environment on the early phase of glioblastoma growth.

  4. Mathematical Modelling of a Brain Tumour Initiation and Early Development: A Coupled Model of Glioblastoma Growth, Pre-Existing Vessel Co-Option, Angiogenesis and Blood Perfusion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cai, Yan; Wu, Jie; Li, Zhiyong; Long, Quan

    2016-01-01

    We propose a coupled mathematical modelling system to investigate glioblastoma growth in response to dynamic changes in chemical and haemodynamic microenvironments caused by pre-existing vessel co-option, remodelling, collapse and angiogenesis. A typical tree-like architecture network with different orders for vessel diameter is designed to model pre-existing vasculature in host tissue. The chemical substances including oxygen, vascular endothelial growth factor, extra-cellular matrix and matrix degradation enzymes are calculated based on the haemodynamic environment which is obtained by coupled modelling of intravascular blood flow with interstitial fluid flow. The haemodynamic changes, including vessel diameter and permeability, are introduced to reflect a series of pathological characteristics of abnormal tumour vessels including vessel dilation, leakage, angiogenesis, regression and collapse. Migrating cells are included as a new phenotype to describe the migration behaviour of malignant tumour cells. The simulation focuses on the avascular phase of tumour development and stops at an early phase of angiogenesis. The model is able to demonstrate the main features of glioblastoma growth in this phase such as the formation of pseudopalisades, cell migration along the host vessels, the pre-existing vasculature co-option, angiogenesis and remodelling. The model also enables us to examine the influence of initial conditions and local environment on the early phase of glioblastoma growth.

  5. Geomagnetic model investigations for 1980 - 1989: A model for strategic defense initiative particle beam experiments and a study in the effects of data types and observatory bias solutions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Langel, Robert A.; Sabaka, T. J.; Baldwin, R. T.

    1991-01-01

    Two suites of geomagnetic field models were generated at the request of Los Alamos National Lab. concerning Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI) research. The first is a progression of five models incorporating MAGSAT data and data from a sequence of batches as a priori information. The batch sequence is: post 1979.5 observatory data, post 1980 land survey and selected aeromagnetic and marine survey data, a special White Sands (NM) area survey by Project Magnet with some additional post 1980 marine survey data, and finally DE-2 satellite data. These models are of 13th deg and order in their main field terms, and deg and order 10 in their first derivative temporal terms. The second suite consists of four models based solely upon post 1983.5 observatory and survey data. They are of deg and order 10 in main field and 8 in a first deg Taylor series. A comprehensive error analysis was applied to both series, which accounted for error sources such as the truncated core and crustal fields, and the neglected Sq and low deg crustal fields. Comparison of the power spectrum of the MGST (10/81) model with those of this series show good agreement.

  6. An Operational Configuration of the ARPS Data Analysis System to Initialize WRF in the NM'S Environmental Modeling System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Case, Jonathan; Blottman, Pete; Hoeth, Brian; Oram, Timothy

    2006-01-01

    The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is the next generation community mesoscale model designed to enhance collaboration between the research and operational sectors. The NM'S as a whole has begun a transition toward WRF as the mesoscale model of choice to use as a tool in making local forecasts. Currently, both the National Weather Service in Melbourne, FL (NWS MLB) and the Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) are running the Advanced Regional Prediction System (AIRPS) Data Analysis System (ADAS) every 15 minutes over the Florida peninsula to produce high-resolution diagnostics supporting their daily operations. In addition, the NWS MLB and SMG have used ADAS to provide initial conditions for short-range forecasts from the ARPS numerical weather prediction (NWP) model. Both NM'S MLB and SMG have derived great benefit from the maturity of ADAS, and would like to use ADAS for providing initial conditions to WRF. In order to assist in this WRF transition effort, the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) was tasked to configure and implement an operational version of WRF that uses output from ADAS for the model initial conditions. Both agencies asked the AMU to develop a framework that allows the ADAS initial conditions to be incorporated into the WRF Environmental Modeling System (EMS) software. Developed by the NM'S Science Operations Officer (S00) Science and Training Resource Center (STRC), the EMS is a complete, full physics, NWP package that incorporates dynamical cores from both the National Center for Atmospheric Research's Advanced Research WRF (ARW) and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction's Non-Hydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM) into a single end-to-end forecasting system. The EMS performs nearly all pre- and postprocessing and can be run automatically to obtain external grid data for WRF boundary conditions, run the model, and convert the data into a format that can be readily viewed within the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System

  7. Angular sensitivity of modeled scientific silicon charge-coupled devices to initial electron direction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Plimley, Brian, E-mail: brian.plimley@gmail.com [Nuclear Engineering Department, University of California, Berkeley, CA (United States); Coffer, Amy; Zhang, Yigong [Nuclear Engineering Department, University of California, Berkeley, CA (United States); Vetter, Kai [Nuclear Engineering Department, University of California, Berkeley, CA (United States); Nuclear Science Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2016-08-11

    Previously, scientific silicon charge-coupled devices (CCDs) with 10.5-μm pixel pitch and a thick (650 μm), fully depleted bulk have been used to measure gamma-ray-induced fast electrons and demonstrate electron track Compton imaging. A model of the response of this CCD was also developed and benchmarked to experiment using Monte Carlo electron tracks. We now examine the trade-off in pixel pitch and electronic noise. We extend our CCD response model to different pixel pitch and readout noise per pixel, including pixel pitch of 2.5 μm, 5 μm, 10.5 μm, 20 μm, and 40 μm, and readout noise from 0 eV/pixel to 2 keV/pixel for 10.5 μm pixel pitch. The CCD images generated by this model using simulated electron tracks are processed by our trajectory reconstruction algorithm. The performance of the reconstruction algorithm defines the expected angular sensitivity as a function of electron energy, CCD pixel pitch, and readout noise per pixel. Results show that our existing pixel pitch of 10.5 μm is near optimal for our approach, because smaller pixels add little new information but are subject to greater statistical noise. In addition, we measured the readout noise per pixel for two different device temperatures in order to estimate the effect of temperature on the reconstruction algorithm performance, although the readout is not optimized for higher temperatures. The noise in our device at 240 K increases the FWHM of angular measurement error by no more than a factor of 2, from 26° to 49° FWHM for electrons between 425 keV and 480 keV. Therefore, a CCD could be used for electron-track-based imaging in a Peltier-cooled device.

  8. A Novel Mouse Model of Diffuse Intrinsic Pontine Glioma Initiated in Pax3-Expressing Cells

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katherine L. Misuraca

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Diffuse intrinsic pontine glioma (DIPG is a rare and incurable brain tumor that arises predominately in children and involves the pons, a structure that along with the midbrain and medulla makes up the brainstem. We have previously developed genetically engineered mouse models of brainstem glioma using the RCAS/Tv-a system by targeting PDGF-B overexpression, p53 loss, and H3.3K27M mutation to Nestin-expressing brainstem progenitor cells of the neonatal mouse. Here we describe a novel mouse model targeting these same genetic alterations to Pax3-expressing cells, which in the neonatal mouse pons consist of a Pax3+/Nestin+/Sox2+ population lining the fourth ventricle and a Pax3+/NeuN+ parenchymal population. Injection of RCAS-PDGF-B into the brainstem of Pax3-Tv-a mice at postnatal day 3 results in 40% of mice developing asymptomatic low-grade glioma. A mixture of low- and high-grade glioma results from injection of Pax3-Tv-a;p53fl/fl mice with RCAS-PDGF-B and RCAS-Cre, with or without RCAS-H3.3K27M. These tumors are Ki67+, Nestin+, Olig2+, and largely GFAP− and can arise anywhere within the brainstem, including the classic DIPG location of the ventral pons. Expression of the H3.3K27M mutation reduces overall H3K27me3 as compared with tumors without the mutation, similar to what has been previously shown in human and mouse tumors. Thus, we have generated a novel genetically engineered mouse model of DIPG, which faithfully recapitulates the human disease and represents a novel platform with which to study the biology and treatment of this deadly disease.

  9. Angular sensitivity of modeled scientific silicon charge-coupled devices to initial electron direction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plimley, Brian; Coffer, Amy; Zhang, Yigong; Vetter, Kai

    2016-08-01

    Previously, scientific silicon charge-coupled devices (CCDs) with 10.5-μm pixel pitch and a thick (650 μm), fully depleted bulk have been used to measure gamma-ray-induced fast electrons and demonstrate electron track Compton imaging. A model of the response of this CCD was also developed and benchmarked to experiment using Monte Carlo electron tracks. We now examine the trade-off in pixel pitch and electronic noise. We extend our CCD response model to different pixel pitch and readout noise per pixel, including pixel pitch of 2.5 μm, 5 μm, 10.5 μm, 20 μm, and 40 μm, and readout noise from 0 eV/pixel to 2 keV/pixel for 10.5 μm pixel pitch. The CCD images generated by this model using simulated electron tracks are processed by our trajectory reconstruction algorithm. The performance of the reconstruction algorithm defines the expected angular sensitivity as a function of electron energy, CCD pixel pitch, and readout noise per pixel. Results show that our existing pixel pitch of 10.5 μm is near optimal for our approach, because smaller pixels add little new information but are subject to greater statistical noise. In addition, we measured the readout noise per pixel for two different device temperatures in order to estimate the effect of temperature on the reconstruction algorithm performance, although the readout is not optimized for higher temperatures. The noise in our device at 240 K increases the FWHM of angular measurement error by no more than a factor of 2, from 26° to 49° FWHM for electrons between 425 keV and 480 keV. Therefore, a CCD could be used for electron-track-based imaging in a Peltier-cooled device.

  10. The OH-initiated oxidation of atmospheric peroxyacetic acid: Experimental and model studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Huihui; Wang, Yin; Li, Huan; Huang, Liubin; Huang, Dao; Shen, Hengqing; Xing, Yanan; Chen, Zhongming

    2017-09-01

    Peroxyacetic acid (PAA, CH3C(O)OOH) plays an important role in atmospheric chemistry, serving as reactive oxidant and affecting radical recycling. However, previous studies revealed an obvious gap between modelled and observed concentrations of atmospheric PAA, which may be partly ascribed to the uncertainty in the kinetics and mechanism of OH-oxidation. In this study, we measured the rate constant of OH radical reaction with PAA (kPAA+OH) and investigated the products in order to develop a more robust atmospheric PAA chemistry. Using the relative rates technique and employing toluene and meta-xylene as reference compounds, the kPAA+OH was determined to be (9.4-11.9) × 10-12 cm3 molecule-1 s-1 at 298 K and 1 atm, which is about (2.5-3.2) times larger than that parameter used in Master Chemical Mechanism v3.3.1 (MCM v3.3.1) (3.70 × 10-12 cm3 molecule-1 s-1). Incorporation of a box model and MCM v3.3.1 with revised PAA chemistry represented a better simulation of atmospheric PAA observed during Wangdu Campaign 2014, a rural site in North China Plain. It is found that OH-oxidation is an important sink of atmospheric PAA in this rural area, accounting for ∼30% of the total loss. Moreover, the major terminal products of PAA-OH reaction were identified as formaldehyde (HCHO) and formic acid (HC(O)OH). The modelled results show that both primary and secondary chemistry play an important role in the large HCHO and HC(O)OH formation under experimental conditions. There should exist the channel of methyl H-abstraction for PAA-OH reaction, which may also provide routes to HCHO and HC(O)OH formation.

  11. Ultraviolet Interstellar Linear Polarization: Initial Modeling Efforts for the Astro-2 WUPPE Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolff, M. J.; Anderson, C. M.; Clayton, Geoff; Kim, S.-H.; Martin, P. G.

    1996-05-01

    Prior to the flight of the Wisconsin Ultraviolet Photo Polarimeter Experiment (WUPPE) on Astro-2, studies of ultraviolet (UV) interstellar linear polarization have generally catagorized the wavelength dependence in two ways: that which agrees with an extrapolation of the Serkowski Law into the UV and that which has a polarization greater than the extrapolation (see Clayton et al. 1995 and references within). Only one object (HD 197770) had been reported to deviate from either of these behaviors. It is important to note that earlier work has been limited in scope primarily by the amount of data available (14 published sightlines). However, with the flight of Astro-2, WUPPE has tripled the number of UV interstellar polarization observations (Anderson et al. 1995, 1996). These new data will provide a significant improvement to our ability to test interstellar dust grain models and study the effects of sightline environments. We present the modeling results for several WUPPE (Astro-2) sightlines, including two which clearly depart from the previously mentioned catagorizations: HD 147933 and HD 197770. In addition to "classial" grain modeling technques (series solution, Effective Medium Theory), we also employ the Maximum Entropy Method and the Discrete Dipole Approximate. WUPPE is supported by NASA contract NAS 5-26777. Anderson, C.M., Weitenbach, A.J., & Code, A.D. 1995, Proceedings of the Conference on Polarimetry in the Interstellar Medium, eds. Roberge & Whittet, Troy, NY, June 1995. Anderson, C.M. et al. 1996, ApJ, submitted. Clayton, G. C. et al. 1995, ApJ, 445, 947

  12. Simulating the mid-Pliocene climate with the MIROC general circulation model: experimental design and initial results

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W.-L. Chan

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available Recently, PlioMIP (Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project was established to assess the ability of various climate models to simulate the mid-Pliocene warm period (mPWP, 3.3–3.0 million years ago. We use MIROC4m, a fully coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM, and its atmospheric component alone to simulate the mPWP, utilizing up-to-date data sets designated in PlioMIP as boundary conditions and adhering to the protocols outlined. In this paper, a brief description of the model is given, followed by an explanation of the experimental design and implementation of the boundary conditions, such as topography and sea surface temperature. Initial results show increases of approximately 10°C in the zonal mean surface air temperature at high latitudes accompanied by a decrease in the equator-to-pole temperature gradient. Temperatures in the tropical regions increase more in the AOGCM. However, warming of the AOGCM sea surface in parts of the northern North Atlantic Ocean and Nordic Seas is less than that suggested by proxy data. An investigation of the model-data discrepancies and further model intercomparison studies can lead to a better understanding of the mid-Pliocene climate and of its role in assessing future climate change.

  13. Initial Comparison of Direct and Legacy Modeling Approaches for Radial Core Expansion Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shemon, Emily R. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)

    2016-10-10

    Radial core expansion in sodium-cooled fast reactors provides an important reactivity feedback effect. As the reactor power increases due to normal start up conditions or accident scenarios, the core and surrounding materials heat up, causing both grid plate expansion and bowing of the assembly ducts. When the core restraint system is designed correctly, the resulting structural deformations introduce negative reactivity which decreases the reactor power. Historically, an indirect procedure has been used to estimate the reactivity feedback due to structural deformation which relies upon perturbation theory and coupling legacy physics codes with limited geometry capabilities. With advancements in modeling and simulation, radial core expansion phenomena can now be modeled directly, providing an assessment of the accuracy of the reactivity feedback coefficients generated by indirect legacy methods. Recently a new capability was added to the PROTEUS-SN unstructured geometry neutron transport solver to analyze deformed meshes quickly and directly. By supplying the deformed mesh in addition to the base configuration input files, PROTEUS-SN automatically processes material adjustments including calculation of region densities to conserve mass, calculation of isotopic densities according to material models (for example, sodium density as a function of temperature), and subsequent re-homogenization of materials. To verify the new capability of directly simulating deformed meshes, PROTEUS-SN was used to compute reactivity feedback for a series of contrived yet representative deformed configurations for the Advanced Burner Test Reactor design. The indirect legacy procedure was also performed to generate reactivity feedback coefficients for the same deformed configurations. Interestingly, the legacy procedure consistently overestimated reactivity feedbacks by 35% compared to direct simulations by PROTEUS-SN. This overestimation indicates that the legacy procedures are in fact

  14. Constitutive modeling of weak and strong shock-initiation of porous explosives

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bennett, L.S.

    1998-12-31

    A continuum based reactive burn model for shocked loaded high explosives has been developed that uses heterogeneous distribution of pore collapse energy to one or more of the constituents (a hot spot) as an ignition source, represents constituents with independent equations of state and has multiple competing and sequential chemical reactions. Reaction propagates from the hot spot to the remainder of the material through either a pressure or temperature dependence of heat transfer through a film layer. The reaction may be quenched by heat transfer or shock release if it is not rapid enough.

  15. Toronto Heart Attack Collaborative: an administrative model that facilitated a successful city-wide integration initiative.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Young, Justin; McLellan, Barry; Escaf, Marnie; Dzavik, Vladimir; Michaud, Susan; Newton, Janet; Newman, Erone

    2014-01-01

    This article provides a description of the administrative model that enabled a city-wide integration effort between Greater Toronto Area hospitals and Toronto Emergency Medical Services in the care of patients within the city of Toronto with ST elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI). This administrative structure, known as the Toronto Heart Attack Collaborative (THAC), enabled universal 24/7 access to primary percutaneous coronary intervention within Toronto, improving patient efficacy and outcomes. The lessons and administrative enablers from this experience may be useful for regions that are embarking on multi-centre integration efforts. This article presents a five-year perspective on the THAC integration effort.

  16. An initial model of the computation viewpoint for a spatial data infrastructure

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Cooper, Antony K

    2007-08-01

    Full Text Available , the Actors and the Use Cases; and B. Identify the core components of an SDI and their relations. Six SDI-Actors have been defined: Policy Maker; Producer (of data or services); Provider (of data or services); Broker; Value Added Reseller (VAR) and End... required interface). 5. UML Component Diagram of SDI The proposed Component Diagram for modelling an SDI from a Computation Viewpoint is shown in Figure 3. The Commission proposes that an SDI is composed of six service components based largely...

  17. Impact of particle density and initial volume on mathematical compression models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sonnergaard, Jørn

    2000-01-01

    on the derived apparent yield pressures. Substances with ionic bonds or macromolecular materials with amorphous structures do not show this dependency on the particle density. The influence of density is demonstrated by performing non-linear regression on the Heckel equation where the optimal particle density...... equations. The problems are illustrated by investigations on compaction profiles of 17 materials with different molecular structures and particle densities. It is shown that the particle density of materials with covalent bonds in the Heckel model acts as a key parameter with a dominating influence...

  18. Microwave accelerated synthesis of isoxazole hydrazide inhibitors of the system xc- transporter: Initial homology model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matti, Afnan A; Mirzaei, Joseph; Rudolph, John; Smith, Stephen A; Newell, Jayme L; Patel, Sarjubhai A; Braden, Michael R; Bridges, Richard J; Natale, Nicholas R

    2013-11-01

    Microwave accelerated reaction system (MARS) technology provided a good method to obtain selective and open isoxazole ligands that bind to and inhibit the Sxc- antiporter. The MARS provided numerous advantages, including: shorter time, better yield and higher purity of the product. Of the newly synthesized series of isoxazoles the salicyl hydrazide 6 exhibited the highest level of inhibitory activity in the transport assay. A homology model has been developed to summarize the SAR results to date, and provide a working hypothesis for future studies.

  19. Initiation of a Marinoan Snowball Earth in a state-of-the-art atmosphere-ocean general circulation model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Voigt

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available We study the initiation of a Marinoan Snowball Earth (~635 million years before present with the state-of-the-art atmosphere-ocean general circulation model ECHAM5/MPI-OM. This is the most sophisticated model ever applied to Snowball initiation. A comparison with a pre-industrial control climate shows that the change of surface boundary conditions from present-day to Marinoan, including a shift of continents to low latitudes, induces a global-mean cooling of 4.6 K. Two thirds of this cooling can be attributed to increased planetary albedo, the remaining one third to a weaker greenhouse effect. The Marinoan Snowball Earth bifurcation point for pre-industrial atmospheric carbon dioxide is between 95.5 and 96% of the present-day total solar irradiance (TSI, whereas a previous study with the same model found that it was between 91 and 94% for present-day surface boundary conditions. A Snowball Earth for TSI set to its Marinoan value (94% of the present-day TSI is prevented by doubling carbon dioxide with respect to its pre-industrial level. A zero-dimensional energy balance model is used to predict the Snowball Earth bifurcation point from only the equilibrium global-mean ocean potential temperature for present-day TSI. We do not find stable states with sea-ice cover above 55%, and land conditions are such that glaciers could not grow with sea-ice cover of 55%. Therefore, none of our simulations qualifies as a "slushball" solution. While uncertainties in important processes and parameters such as clouds and sea-ice albedo suggest that the Snowball Earth bifurcation point differs between climate models, our results contradict previous findings that Snowball Earth initiation would require much stronger forcings.

  20. Unraveling the dynamics that scale cross-shore headland relief on rocky coastlines: 2. Model predictions and initial tests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Limber, Patrick W.; Murray, A. Brad

    2014-04-01

    We explore the behavior of a theoretical model of cross-shore headland relief caused by alongshore differences in lithology and rock strength on rocky coastlines. Results address the question of why some rocky coasts exhibit frequent headland and embayment sequences while others evolve to a flat, smooth, and sandy configuration. Main model predictions are that cross-shore headland amplitude is inversely proportional to beach sediment supply and the strength of wave energy convergence and divergence along the headland and bay, and proportional to the alongshore embayment length (or distance between headlands) and the difference between headland and bay rock strength. The coastline's initial physical properties (sea cliff height, composition, etc.) largely determine whether headlands will be persistent or transient landscape features. Model timescales over which the headland and bay reach steady state amplitude, or disappear to a flat coastline, range from 120 to 175,000 years depending on how close the initial amplitude is to steady state. In many cases, the coastline must evolve over several sea level highstands in order to reach equilibrium. A characteristic timescale (independent of initial conditions) shows that the coastline evolves most rapidly when: wave focusing is stronger; sea cliff rock is weaker or retreats faster in a given wave climate; the sea cliff retreat rate decreases rapidly as a function of beach width (i.e., the beach is very effective at dampening wave energy); and the coastline is sediment rich. Comparisons to nature suggest that our model is qualitatively capturing general rocky coastline dynamics and that modeled headland amplitudes are consistent with observed amplitudes.

  1. Initializing the Greenland ice sheet to investigate its sensitivity to climate changes: a study with the GRISLI model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le clec'h, Sébastien; Dumas, Christophe; Kageyama, Masa; Charbit, Sylvie; Ritz, Catherine; Gallée, Hubert; Fettweis, Xavier

    2016-04-01

    The Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) is bound to play a crucial role in sea level rise over the next century. In this context, initializing Greenland ice sheet models properly is of prime importance. In this work, we will use the GRenoble Ice Shelf and Land Ice (GRISLI) model at 5km resolution (Ritz et al., 2001) to evaluate the evolution of the Greenland ice sheet under different climate forcings. The first step is to choose the most appropriate parameters to obtain a realistic Greenland ice sheet for present day. To perform this initialization, we use an inverse method and determine the basal stress given the observed geometry and mean climate between 1979 and 2014. We use the mean climate computed by the MAR regional atmospheric model (Fettweis et al.,2013) forced by reanalyses. At the end of this first step, we run a first simulation using the mean climate to check if the model is not drifting. In a second step, we apply three other climatologies built from MAR. We use: 1/ the warmest years of the period, 2/ the coolest years, 3/ the 2012 extreme melt event year (Nilsson et al, 2015). For each experiment we analyse the impact of these different climates on mass balance in 7 different regions (corresponding to drainage basins) of Greenland.

  2. Overcoming challenges to initiating cell therapy clinical trials in rapidly developing countries: India as a model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viswanathan, Sowmya; Rao, Mahendra; Keating, Armand; Srivastava, Alok

    2013-08-01

    Increasingly, a number of rapidly developing countries, including India, China, Brazil, and others, are becoming global hot spots for the development of regenerative medicine applications, including stem cell-based therapies. Identifying and overcoming regulatory and translational research challenges and promoting scientific and ethical clinical trials with cells will help curb the growth of stem cell tourism for unproven therapies. It will also enable academic investigators, local regulators, and national and international biotechnology and biopharmaceutical companies to accelerate stem cell-based clinical research that could lead to effective innovative treatments in these regions. Using India as a model system and obtaining input from regulators, clinicians, academics, and industry representatives across the stem cell field in India, we reviewed the role of key agencies and processes involved in this field. We have identified areas that need attention and here provide solutions from other established and functioning models in the world to streamline and unify the regulatory and ethics approval processes for cell-based therapies. We also make recommendations to check the growth and functioning of clinics offering unproven treatments. Addressing these issues will remove considerable hurdles to both local and international investigators, accelerate the pace of research and development, and create a quality environment for reliable products to emerge. By doing so, these countries would have taken one important step to move to the forefront of stem cell-based therapeutics.

  3. A preliminary model of work during initial examination and treatment planning appointments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Irwin, J Y; Torres-Urquidy, M H; Schleyer, T; Monaco, V

    2009-01-10

    Objective This study's objective was to formally describe the work process for charting and treatment planning in general dental practice to inform the design of a new clinical computing environment.Methods Using a process called contextual inquiry, researchers observed 23 comprehensive examination and treatment planning sessions during 14 visits to 12 general US dental offices. For each visit, field notes were analysed and reformulated as formalised models. Subsequently, each model type was consolidated across all offices and visits. Interruptions to the workflow, called breakdowns, were identified.Results Clinical work during dental examination and treatment planning appointments is a highly collaborative activity involving dentists, hygienists and assistants. Personnel with multiple overlapping roles complete complex multi-step tasks supported by a large and varied collection of equipment, artifacts and technology. Most of the breakdowns were related to technology which interrupted the workflow, caused rework and increased the number of steps in work processes.Conclusion Current dental software could be significantly improved with regard to its support for communication and collaboration, workflow, information design and presentation, information content, and data entry.

  4. Including policy and management in socio-hydrology models: initial conceptualizations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hermans, Leon; Korbee, Dorien

    2017-04-01

    Socio-hydrology studies the interactions in coupled human-water systems. So far, the use of dynamic models that capture the direct feedback between societal and hydrological systems has been dominant. What has not yet been included with any particular emphasis, is the policy or management layer, which is a central element in for instance integrated water resources management (IWRM) or adaptive delta management (ADM). Studying the direct interactions between human-water systems generates knowledges that eventually helps influence these interactions in ways that may ensure better outcomes - for society and for the health and sustainability of water systems. This influence sometimes occurs through spontaneous emergence, uncoordinated by societal agents - private sector, citizens, consumers, water users. However, the term 'management' in IWRM and ADM also implies an additional coordinated attempt through various public actors. This contribution is a call to include the policy and management dimension more prominently into the research focus of the socio-hydrology field, and offers first conceptual variables that should be considered in attempts to include this policy or management layer in socio-hydrology models. This is done by drawing on existing frameworks to study policy processes throughout both planning and implementation phases. These include frameworks such as the advocacy coalition framework, collective learning and policy arrangements, which all emphasis longer-term dynamics and feedbacks between actor coalitions in strategic planning and implementation processes. A case about longter-term dynamics in the management of the Haringvliet in the Netherlands is used to illustrate the paper.

  5. Initial Studies of Validation of MHD Models for MST Reversed Field Pinch Plasmas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacobson, C. M.; Almagri, A. F.; Craig, D.; McCollam, K. J.; Reusch, J. A.; Sauppe, J. P.; Sovinec, C. R.; Triana, J. C.

    2015-11-01

    Quantitative validation of visco-resistive MHD models for RFP plasmas takes advantage of MST's advanced diagnostics. These plasmas are largely governed by MHD relaxation activity, so that a broad range of validation metrics can be evaluated. Previous nonlinear simulations using the visco-resistive MHD code DEBS at Lundquist number S = 4 ×106 produced equilibrium relaxation cycles in qualitative agreement with experiment, but magnetic fluctuation amplitudes b~ were at least twice as large as in experiment. The extended-MHD code NIMROD previously suggested that a two-fluid model may be necessary to produce b~ in agreement with experiment. For best comparisons with DEBS and to keep computational expense tractable, NIMROD is run in single-fluid mode at low S. These simulations are complemented by DEBS at higher S in cylindrical geometry, which will be used to examine b~ as a function of S. Experimental measurements are used with results from these simulations to evaluate validation metrics. Convergence tests of previous high S DEBS simulations are also discussed, along with benchmarking of DEBS and NIMROD with the SPECYL and PIXIE3D codes. Work supported by U.S. DOE and NSF.

  6. Initial Results from SQUID Sensor: Analysis and Modeling for the ELF/VLF Atmospheric Noise

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huan Hao

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, the amplitude probability density (APD of the wideband extremely low frequency (ELF and very low frequency (VLF atmospheric noise is studied. The electromagnetic signals from the atmosphere, referred to herein as atmospheric noise, was recorded by a mobile low-temperature superconducting quantum interference device (SQUID receiver under magnetically unshielded conditions. In order to eliminate the adverse effect brought by the geomagnetic activities and powerline, the measured field data was preprocessed to suppress the baseline wandering and harmonics by symmetric wavelet transform and least square methods firstly. Then statistical analysis was performed for the atmospheric noise on different time and frequency scales. Finally, the wideband ELF/VLF atmospheric noise was analyzed and modeled separately. Experimental results show that, Gaussian model is appropriate to depict preprocessed ELF atmospheric noise by a hole puncher operator. While for VLF atmospheric noise, symmetric α-stable (SαS distribution is more accurate to fit the heavy-tail of the envelope probability density function (pdf.

  7. Effects of initial stress on transverse wave propagation in carbon nanotubes based on Timoshenko laminated beam models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cai, H.; Wang, X.

    2006-01-01

    Based on Timoshenko laminated beam models, this paper investigates the influence of initial stress on the vibration and transverse wave propagation in individual multi-wall carbon nanotubes (MWNTs) under ultrahigh frequency (above 1 THz), in which the initial stress in the MWNTs can occur due to thermal or lattice mismatch between different materials. Considering van der Waals force interaction between two adjacent tubes and effects of rotary inertia and shear deformation, results show that the initial stress in individual multi-wall carbon nanotubes not only affects the number of transverse wave speeds and the magnitude of transverse wave speeds, but also terahertz critical frequencies at which the number of wave speeds changes. When the initial stress in individual multi-wall carbon nanotubes is the compressive stress, transverse wave speeds decrease and the vibration amplitude ratio of two adjacent tubes increases. When the initial stress in individual multi-wall carbon nanotubes is the tensile stress, transverse wave speeds increase and the vibration amplitude ratio of two adjacent tubes decreases. The investigation of the effects of initial stress on transverse wave propagation in carbon nanotubes may be used as a useful reference for the application and the design of nanoelectronic and nanodrive devices, nano-oscillators, and nanosensors, in which carbon nanotubes act as basic elements.

  8. The impact of initial statin treatment decisions on cardiovascular outcomes in clinical care settings: estimates using the Archimedes Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    van Herick A

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Andrew van Herick,1 C Andy Schuetz,1 Peter Alperin,1 Michael Bullano,2 Sanjeev Balu,2 Sanjay Gandhi21Archimedes, Inc, San Francisco, CA, USA; 2AstraZeneca Pharmaceuticals LP, Wilmington, DE, USAPurpose: Many patients treated for dyslipidemia do not achieve recommended cholesterol goals despite the widespread availability of effective statins. Pharmaceutical claims show a strong tendency for patients to remain on their initially assigned treatment. With computer simulations, the impact of initial statin treatment decisions on medium- and long-term cardiovascular outcomes were examined.Patients and methods: Using the Archimedes Model, three treatment scenarios were simulated. Patients initiated treatment with simvastatin (20, 40, or 80 mg, atorvastatin (10, 20, 40, or 80 mg, or rosuvastatin (10, 20, or 40 mg, and periodically intensified treatment. The simulated population consisted of 50,025 patients, aged 45–70 years, with low-density lipoprotein cholesterol exceeding goal. The proportion of patients initiating each dose was calibrated to United States pharmacy claims. Patients not reaching goal intensified the dose of their current statin or switched to an appropriate dose of rosuvastatin at rates matching pharmacy claims. Biomarkers and major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE were tracked for 10 years and several high-risk subpopulations were analyzed. Statin models used biomarker effects from the STELLAR (Statin Therapies for Elevated Lipid Levels Compared Across Doses to Rosuvastatin trial and outcomes data from various trials.Results: Initiating therapy with rosuvastatin reduced MACE more than simvastatin or atorvastatin. The 5- year relative risk of MACE was 0.906 (95% confidence interval: 0.888–0.923; P < 0.001 for initial treatment with atorvastatin rather than simvastatin, 0.831 (0.812–0.850; P < 0.001 for rosuvastatin rather than simvastatin, and 0.918 (0.898–0.938; P < 0.001 for rosuvastatin rather than atorvastatin

  9. Variations of the stellar initial mass function in semi-analytical models: implications for the mass assembly and the chemical enrichment of galaxies in the GAEA model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fontanot, Fabio; De Lucia, Gabriella; Hirschmann, Michaela; Bruzual, Gustavo; Charlot, Stéphane; Zibetti, Stefano

    2017-02-01

    In this paper, we investigate the implications of the integrated galaxy-wide stellar initial mass function (IGIMF) approach in the framework of the semi-analytical model GAEA (GAlaxy Evolution and Assembly), which features a detailed treatment of chemical enrichment and stellar feedback. The IGIMF provides an analytic description of the dependence of the stellar IMF shape on the rate of star formation in galaxies. We find that our model with a universal IMF predicts a rather flat [α/Fe]-stellar mass relation. The model assuming the IGIMF, instead, is able to reproduce the observed increase of α-enhancement with stellar mass, in agreement with previous studies. This is mainly due to the fact that massive galaxies are characterized by larger star formation rates at high redshift, leading to stronger α-enhancement with respect to low-mass galaxies. At the same time, the IGIMF hypothesis does not affect significantly the trend for shorter star formation time-scales for more massive galaxies. We argue that in the IGIMF scenario the [α/Fe] ratios are good tracers of the highest star formation events. The final stellar masses and mass-to-light ratio of our model massive galaxies are larger than those estimated from the synthetic photometry assuming a universal IMF, providing a self-consistent interpretation of similar recent results, based on dynamical analysis of local early-type galaxies.

  10. Developing Methodologies for Applying TRMM-Estimated Precipitation Data to Hydrological Modeling of a South TX Watershed - Initial Results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tobin, K. J.; Bennett, M. E.

    2007-05-01

    Previous experience with hydrological modeling in South Texas, which is located along the Texas-Mexico border, suggests that NWS ground measurements are too widely scattered to provide reliable precipitation input for modeling. In addition, a significant fraction of the study region is located at the edge of the coverage envelopes of the NWS NEXRAD weather radars present in the region limiting the accuracy of these systems to provide reliable precipitation estimates. Therefore, we are exploring whether TRMM estimated-precipitation data (3B42), in some form, can be used to support hydrological modeling in the Middle Rio Grande and Nueces River Basin watersheds. We have begun our modeling efforts by focusing on the middle Nueces watershed (7770 sq km). To model this largely rural watershed we selected the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Three precipitation datasets were selected for our initial model runs that include: (1) nearest NWS cooperative hourly rain gauge data, (2) three hourly TRMM 3B42 estimated precipitation, and (3) combination TRMM 3B42/NWS rain gauge datasets in which ground measurements are used for three hourly periods lacking high quality satellite microwave precipitation estimates as determined from TRMM 3G68 data. Three dataset were aggregated into an average daily estimate of precipitation for each TRMM grid cell. Manual calibration of was completed achieving model results that yield realistic monthly and annual water balances with both gauge and satellite estimate precipitation datasets. In the future, we plan to use the newly developed automatic calibration routine for SWAT, which is based on the Shuffled Complex Evolution algorithm, to optimize modeled discharge results from this study.

  11. Water dissociation in a radio-frequency electromagnetic field with ex situ electrodes—modelling of discharge initiation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schneider, Jens; Holzer, Frank; Rabe, Carsten; Häupl, Tilmann; Kopinke, Frank-Dieter; Roland, Ulf

    2013-04-01

    Applying a new experimental design with a capillary glass reactor and plate electrodes outside of the reactor allowed the initiation of discharges in aqueous electrolytes under the influence of a radio-frequency (RF) electromagnetic field. This study focused on the mechanism leading to the initiation of such discharges in the restriction of a glass tube. The light emission correlated with discharges was analysed with optical emission spectroscopy. Electrons with energies between 20 and 45 eV were responsible for the dissociation of water molecules into (excited) OH, H and O radicals. Current-voltage characteristics were measured before and under discharge conditions. Modelling of the experimental setup and simulation of electrical field strength distribution support the hypothesis of the origin of discharges in general and experimental findings such as ring-shaped discharges and a minimum solution conductivity of about 1 S m-1 required for discharge initiation with RF voltages of 2 kV.

  12. Initial Stage of the Microwave Ionization Wave Within a 1D Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Semenov, V. E.; Rakova, E. I.; Glyavin, M. Yu.; Nusinovich, G. S.

    2016-05-01

    The dynamics of the microwave breakdown in a gas is simulated numerically within a simple 1D model which takes into account such processes as the impact ionization of gas molecules, the attachment of electrons to neutral molecules, and plasma diffusion. Calculations are carried out for different spatial distributions of seed electrons with account for reflection of the incident electromagnetic wave from the plasma. The results reveal considerable dependence of the ionization wave evolution on the relation between the field frequency and gas pressure, as well as on the existence of extended rarefied halo of seed electrons. At relatively low gas pressures (or high field frequencies), the breakdown process is accompanied by the stationary ionization wave moving towards the incident electromagnetic wave. In the case of a high gas pressure (or a relatively low field frequency), the peculiarities of the breakdown are associated with the formation of repetitive jumps of the ionization front.

  13. Learning Together 1: an educational model for training GPs, paediatricians: initial findings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macaulay, Chloe; Spicer, John; Riches, Wendy; Lakhanpaul, Monica

    2017-01-01

    Learning Together is primarily an educational intervention, where paediatric registrars [SpRs] and General Practice (GP) registrars [GPSTs] see children together in a primary care setting. Over a six month period in 2013/2014, 44 learning pairs were set up mainly in North East and Central London. Proof of concept for the model at scale was achieved. Reported learning demonstrated: clinical learning themes of new knowledge, skill and communication skills; and collaborative themes of ongoing collaboration, satisfaction with team working and change in attitudes. These themes were identified in both sets of trainees. The self-reported learning is backed up by the results of a retrospective notes review of four common conditions based on NICE guidelines; constipation, asthma, feverish illness and eczema (CAFE). Guidance adherence improved from 57% before the intervention in solo GP training consultations to 72% during the joint clinic intervention (p Learning Together in its South London extension.

  14. Design of a global soil moisture initialization procedure for the simple biosphere model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liston, G. E.; Sud, Y. C.; Walker, G. K.

    1993-01-01

    Global soil moisture and land-surface evapotranspiration fields are computed using an analysis scheme based on the Simple Biosphere (SiB) soil-vegetation-atmosphere interaction model. The scheme is driven with observed precipitation, and potential evapotranspiration, where the potential evapotranspiration is computed following the surface air temperature-potential evapotranspiration regression of Thomthwaite (1948). The observed surface air temperature is corrected to reflect potential (zero soil moisture stress) conditions by letting the ratio of actual transpiration to potential transpiration be a function of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). Soil moisture, evapotranspiration, and runoff data are generated on a daily basis for a 10-year period, January 1979 through December 1988, using observed precipitation gridded at a 4 deg by 5 deg resolution.

  15. The Anxiety Attitude and Belief Scale-2: Development, Measurement Model, and Initial Validity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Gary P; Hawkes, Nick; Cooper, Andrew; Jonsdottir, Solveig; Tata, Philip

    2015-01-01

    There is a notable lack of measures of enduring beliefs, which are key etiological factors in Beck's cognitive model of anxiety. The Anxiety Attitude and Belief Scale-2 was developed to address this need. Items from the original AABS were reviewed and revised, and additional items were added to cover the range of constructs identified as reflecting anxiety related expectancies while avoiding the confounding of cognition and affect. Suitability of items was examined using cognitive interviewing (Willis, 2004). The resulting set of 48 items was administered to an index sample of individuals reporting anxiety symptoms and a cross-validation sample of undergraduate students in order to derive a measurement model describing its internal structure. The final, 33-item AABS-2 had a bifactor structure of one general and four specific factors, good fit to the data, common factor content across groups, acceptable precision in measurement, and evidence of construct validity. Measures of enduring beliefs related to anxiety disorders are needed to assess etiological factors within cognitive therapy; while there are numerous measures of automatic thoughts, there are few measures of beliefs. The present study sought to address this gap. The items that originally appeared on ten rationally derived scales drawn from clinical phenomenology of anxiety disorders were eventually grouped into four group factors and one general factor in the course of psychometric analyses. The group factors included ones expected to distinguish groups reporting panic, OCD, and social anxiety symptoms from other anxiety symptom groups, and this prediction was supported. The majority of predictions regarding patterns or correlations were also supported. Further validation research is needed to evaluate the validity of the AABS and its subscales in predicting course and outcome of psychotherapy. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  16. Modeling intercontinental transport of ozone in North America with CAMx for the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII Phase 3

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    U. Nopmongcol

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Intercontinental ozone (O3 transport extends the geographic range of O3 air pollution impacts and makes local air pollution management more difficult. Phase 3 of the Air Quality Modeling Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII-3 is examining the contribution of intercontinental transport to regional air quality by applying regional-scale atmospheric models jointly with global models. We investigate methods for tracing O3 from global models within regional models. The CAMx photochemical grid model was used to track contributions from boundary condition (BC O3 over a North American modeling domain for calendar year 2010 using a built-in tracer module called RTCMC. RTCMC can track BC contributions using chemically reactive tracers and also using inert tracers in which deposition is the only sink for O3. Lack of O3 destruction chemistry in the inert tracer approach leads to overestimation biases that can exceed 10 ppb. The flexibility of RTCMC also allows tracking O3 contributions made by groups of vertical BC layers. The largest BC contributions to seasonal average daily maximum 8 h averages (MDA8 of O3 over the US are found to be from the mid-troposphere (over 40 ppb with small contributions (a few ppb from the upper troposphere–lower stratosphere. Contributions from the lower troposphere are shown to not penetrate very far inland. Higher contributions in the western than the eastern US, reaching an average of 57 ppb in Denver for the 30 days with highest MDA8 O3 in 2010, present a significant challenge to air quality management approaches based solely on local or US-wide emission reductions. The substantial BC contribution to MDA8 O3 in the Intermountain West means regional models are particularly sensitive to any biases and errors in the BCs. A sensitivity simulation with reduced BC O3 in response to 20 % lower emissions in Asia found a near-linear relationship between the BC O3 changes and surface O3 changes in the

  17. Application of damage mechanics modeling to strain based design with respect to ductile crack initiation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ishikawa, Nobuyuki; Sueyoshi, Hitoshi; Igi, Satoshi [Steel Research Laboratory, JFE Steel Corporation (Japan)

    2010-07-01

    In the oil and gas sector, with the increase in demand, more and more pipelines are now constructed in permafrost and seismic regions. When installed in such harsh environments, pipelines must be resistant to buckling and weld fracture and the strain based design methodology is preferably used. The aim of this paper is to study the critical condition for ductile crack initiation. Both notched round bar and wide plate tests were carried out on X80 and X100 steel pipes and welds; the equivalent plastic strain criterion and Gurson Tvergaard mechanical damage analysis were used. It was found that to determine ductile crack initiation that is not affected by specimen geometry, the critical equivalent plastic strain can be used as the local criterion. In addition, when ductile crack initiation is independent of specimen geometry, the void volume fraction can be used as a criterion. This paper provided useful information on which criterion to use for ductile crack initiation.

  18. A mathematical model of cancer stem cell driven tumor initiation: implications of niche size and loss of homeostatic regulatory mechanisms.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sara N Gentry

    Full Text Available Hierarchical organized tissue structures, with stem cell driven cell differentiation, are critical to the homeostatic maintenance of most tissues, and this underlying cellular architecture is potentially a critical player in the development of a many cancers. Here, we develop a mathematical model of mutation acquisition to investigate how deregulation of the mechanisms preserving stem cell homeostasis contributes to tumor initiation. A novel feature of the model is the inclusion of both extrinsic and intrinsic chemical signaling and interaction with the niche to control stem cell self-renewal. We use the model to simulate the effects of a variety of types and sequences of mutations and then compare and contrast all mutation pathways in order to determine which ones generate cancer cells fastest. The model predicts that the sequence in which mutations occur significantly affects the pace of tumorigenesis. In addition, tumor composition varies for different mutation pathways, so that some sequences generate tumors that are dominated by cancerous cells with all possible mutations, while others are primarily comprised of cells that more closely resemble normal cells with only one or two mutations. We are also able to show that, under certain circumstances, healthy stem cells diminish due to the displacement by mutated cells that have a competitive advantage in the niche. Finally, in the event that all homeostatic regulation is lost, exponential growth of the cancer population occurs in addition to the depletion of normal cells. This model helps to advance our understanding of how mutation acquisition affects mechanisms that influence cell-fate decisions and leads to the initiation of cancers.

  19. Time-symmetric initial data of large brane-localized black hole in RS-II model

    CERN Document Server

    Tanahashi, Norihiro

    2008-01-01

    In the aim of shedding a new light on the classical black hole evaporation conjecture stating that a static brane-localized black hole (BH) larger than the bulk curvature scale does not exist in Randall-Sundrum II (RS-II) model, we investigate time-symmetric initial data with a brane-localized apparent horizon (AH) and analyzed its properties. We find that a three-parameter family of such initial data can be constructed by simply placing a brane on a constant time surface of Schwarzschild anti-de Sitter space. By this method, we unambiguously confirm that initial data with an arbitrarily large AH area do exist. We compare the ADM mass and the horizon area of our initial data with that of the black string (BS) solution, and find that any initial data constructed by this method do not have a smaller mass than the BS solution when the horizon area is larger than the size determined by the bulk curvature scale. We further investigate what kind of configuration realizes the minimum mass for the same AH area. The c...

  20. The influence of female social models in corporate STEM initiatives on girls' math and science attitudes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medeiros, Donald J.

    The United States' Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics (STEM) workforce is growing slower than in the past, in comparison to demand, and in comparison to other countries. Competitive talent conditions require the United States to develop a strong pipeline of STEM talent within its own citizens. Given the number of female college graduates and their underrepresentation in the STEM workforce, women provide the greatest opportunity for fulfilling this need. The term social model represents the individuals and media that shape children's self-perceptions. Social models have been shown to positively influence girl's perceptions of the value of math and science as well as their expectations of success. This study examined differences in attitudes towards math and science among student participants in corporate STEM programs. Differences were measured based on participant gender and ethnicity, their mentor's gender and ethnicity, and program design differences. The research purpose was to inform the design of corporate STEM programs to improve female participants' attitudes towards math and science and eventually increase the number of women in the STEM workforce. Over three hundred students in differing corporate STEM programs completed math and science attitudinal scales at the start and end of their programs. Study results revealed, prior to program start, female participants had a better attitude towards math and science than male participants. Analysis of the Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study data showed similar results. Overall program results demonstrated higher post program math and science attitudes with no differences based on gender, age, or ethnicity of the participant or mentor. Participants with high program or mentor satisfaction were found to have higher attitudes towards math and science. These results may suggest improving female academic choice requires more focus on their expectations of success than perceived task

  1. The potential spread of severe footrot in Norway if no elimination programme had been initiated: a simulation model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grøneng, Gry M; Vatn, Synnøve; Kristoffersen, Anja Bråthen; Nafstad, Ola; Hopp, Petter

    2015-02-20

    When severe footrot was detected in Norway in 2008, a surveillance programme was initiated and followed by an elimination programme. By 2013 the disease had spread to two of 19 counties and a total of 119 (1%) sheep flocks had been diagnosed with severe footrot. A simulation model was developed to estimate the potential spread of severe footrot in Norway and to estimate the relative importance of the different spreading routes. The model parameters were based on the rate of spread of the first 38 diagnosed cases and the management and climatic factors particular for Norway. The model showed that by 2013, severe footrot would have spread to six counties and infected 16% of the sheep flocks if no elimination programme had been initiated. If this is compared with the 1% of flocks that were diagnosed in Norway by 2013, there seems to be a large effect of the implemented footrot elimination programme. By 2035, it was estimated that severe footrot would have spread to 16 counties and 64% of the sheep flocks. Such an extensive spread would probably impose a large negative impact on the sheep industry and welfare of the sheep. The most effective way to curb the spread of severe footrot was by decreasing the within county infection rate. This could be achieved by decreasing the contact between flocks or by decreasing the environmental load of D. nodosus, for example by footbathing sheep, culling diseased sheep or eliminating severe footrot in the flock.

  2. Initial modeling of Y-ring based on ANSYS%基于ANSYS的Y形圈初始建模

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张付英; 李腾

    2013-01-01

    Aiming at the problem which the deformation of seal ring is heavy and the finite element analyzing and computational process is difficult to convergence due to the high nonlinearity of material , geometry and status of the sealing element, a kind of more reasonable method in theory for getting initial finite element analysis model is come up by analyzing the key factors affecting the convergence property during solving process and choosing the important parameters of rigid-deformable contact model. That is , the piston rod moves axially and compresses the Y-ring, and then gets the initial Y-ring model.%针对密封元件的材料、几何、状态的高度非线性使得密封圈变形较大且有限元分析计算过程不易收敛的问题,对影响Y形圈模型计算收敛性的关键因素进行分析,并对刚-柔接触模型的重要参数进行解析和选择,最终提出了理论上较为合理的Y形圈初始有限元模型的建模方法,即活塞杆轴向移动挤压Y形圈得到Y形圈的有限元初始模型。

  3. Simulation of discharge in insulating gas from initial partial discharge to growth of a stepped leader using the percolation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sasaki, Akira; Kato, Susumu; Takahashii, Eiichi; Kishimoto, Yasuaki; Fujii, Takashi; Kanazawa, Seiji

    2016-02-01

    We show a cell simulation of a discharge in an insulating gas from the initial partial discharge to leader inception until breakdown, based on the percolation model. In the model, we consider that the propagation of the leader occurs when connections between randomly produced ionized regions in the discharge medium are established. To determine the distribution of ionized regions, the state of each simulation cell is decided by evaluating the probability of ionization in SF6, which depends on the local electric field. The electric field as well as the discharge current are calculated by solving circuit equations for the network of simulation cells. Both calculations are coupled to each other and the temporal evolution of discharge is self-consistently calculated. The model dependence of the features of the discharge is investigated. It is found that taking the suppression of attachment in the presence of a discharge current into account, the calculation reproduces the behavior of experimental discharges. It is shown that for a strong electric field, the inception of a stepped leader causes immediate breakdown. For an electric field of 30-50% of the critical field, the initial partial discharge persists for a stochastic time lag and then the propagation of a leader takes place. As the strength of the electric field decreases, the time lag increases rapidly and eventually only a partial discharge with a short arrested leader occurs, as observed in experiments.

  4. Prospective influence of music-related media exposure on adolescent substance-use initiation: a peer group mediation model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slater, Michael D; Henry, Kimberly L

    2013-01-01

    The present study tests prospective effects of music-related media content (from television, Internet, and magazines) on youth alcohol, cigarette, and marijuana use initiation. Indirect effects through association with substance-using peers were tested in a 4-wave longitudinal data set (2,729 middle school students for the alcohol model, 2,716 students for the cigarette model, and 2,710 students for the marijuana model) from schools across the United States. In so doing, the authors examine theoretical claims regarding socialization mechanisms for effects of popular music listenership on substance use initiation. Results supported direct effects on alcohol and cigarette uptake, and indirect effects through association with substance-using peers on all 3 substances. This research, in combination with prior studies by several research teams, suggests elevated popular music involvement is a risk factor with respect to younger adolescents' substance use behavior. This influence is in part explained by the role of music-related media content in socialization to substance-using peer groups.

  5. Initial Experimental Verification of the Neutron Beam Modeling for the LBNL BNCT Facility

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bleuel, D.L.; Chu, W.T.; Donahue, R.J.; Ludewigt, B.A.; McDonald, R.J.; Smith, A.R.; Stone, N.A.; Vuji, J.

    1999-01-19

    In preparation for future clinical BNCT trials, neutron production via the 7Li(p,n) reaction as well as subsequent moderation to produce epithermal neutrons have been studied. Proper design of a moderator and filter assembly is crucial in producing an optimal epithermal neutron spectrum for brain tumor treatments. Based on in-phantom figures-of-merit,desirable assemblies have been identified. Experiments were performed at the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory's 88-inch cyclotron to characterize epithermal neutron beams created using several microampere of 2.5 MeV protons on a lithium target. The neutron moderating assembly consisted of Al/AlF3 and Teflon, with a lead reflector to produce an epithermal spectrum strongly peaked at 10-20 keV. The thermal neutron fluence was measured as a function of depth in a cubic lucite head phantom by neutron activation in gold foils. Portions of the neutron spectrum were measured by in-air activation of six cadmium-covered materials (Au, Mn, In, Cu, Co, W) with high epithermal neutron absorption resonances. The results are reasonably reproduced in Monte Carlo computational models, confirming their validity.

  6. Interference contributions to gluon initiated heavy Higgs production in the two-Higgs-doublet model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Greiner, Nicolas [DESY, Hamburg (Germany); Universitaet Zuerich, Physik-Institut, Zuerich (Switzerland); Liebler, Stefan; Weiglein, Georg [DESY, Hamburg (Germany)

    2016-03-15

    We discuss the production of a heavy neutral Higgs boson of a CP-conserving two-Higgs-doublet model in gluon fusion and its decay into a four-fermion final state, gg(→ VV) → e{sup +}e{sup -}μ{sup +}μ{sup -}/e{sup +}e{sup -}ν{sub l} anti ν{sub l}. We investigate the interference contributions to invariant mass distributions of the four-fermion final state and other relevant kinematical observables. The relative importance of the different contributions is quantified for the process in the on-shell approximation, gg → ZZ. We show that interferences of the heavy Higgs with the light Higgs boson and background contributions are essential for a correct description of the differential cross section. Even though they contribute below O(10%) to those heavy Higgs signal cross sections, to which the experiments at the Large Hadron Collider were sensitive in its first run, we find that they are sizable in certain regions of the parameter space that are relevant for future heavy Higgs boson searches. In fact, the interference contributions can significantly enhance the experimental sensitivity to the heavy Higgs boson. (orig.)

  7. Interference contributions to gluon initiated heavy Higgs production in the Two-Higgs-Doublet Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Greiner, Nicolas [Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron (DESY), Hamburg (Germany); Zuerich Univ. (Switzerland). Physik-Inst.; Liebler, Stefan; Weiglein, Georg [Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron (DESY), Hamburg (Germany)

    2016-03-15

    We discuss the production of a heavy neutral Higgs boson of a CP-conserving Two-Higgs-Doublet Model in gluon fusion and its decay into a four-fermion final state, gg(→VV)→e{sup +}e{sup -}π{sup +}π{sup -}/e{sup +}e{sup -}ν{sub l} anti ν{sub l}. We investigate the interference contributions to invariant mass distributions of the four-fermion final state and other relevant kinematical observables. The relative importance of the different contributions is quantified for the process in the on-shell approximation, gg→ZZ. We show that interferences of the heavy Higgs with the light Higgs boson and background contributions are essential for a correct description of the differential cross section. Even though they contribute below O(10%) to those heavy Higgs signal cross sections, to which the experiments at the Large Hadron Collider were sensitive in its first run, we find that they are sizeable in certain regions of the parameter space that are relevant for future heavy Higgs boson searches. In fact, the interference contributions can significantly enhance the experimental sensitivity to the heavy Higgs boson.

  8. Stromal modulation of bladder cancer-initiating cells in a subcutaneous tumor model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peek, Elizabeth M; Li, David R; Zhang, Hanwei; Kim, Hyun Pyo; Zhang, Baohui; Garraway, Isla P; Chin, Arnold I

    2012-01-01

    The development of new cancer therapeutics would benefit from incorporating efficient tumor models that mimic human disease. We have developed a subcutaneous bladder tumor regeneration system that recapitulates primary human bladder tumor architecture by recombining benign human fetal bladder stromal cells with SW780 bladder carcinoma cells. As a first step, SW780 cells were seeded in ultra low attachment cultures in order to select for sphere-forming cells, the putative cancer stem cell (CSC) phenotype. Spheroids were combined with primary human fetal stromal cells or vehicle control and injected subcutaneously with Matrigel into NSG mice. SW780 bladder tumors that formed in the presence of stroma showed accelerated growth, muscle invasion, epithelial to mesenchymal transition (EMT), decreased differentiation, and greater activation of growth pathways compared to tumors formed in the absence of fetal stroma. Tumors grown with stroma also demonstrated a greater similarity to typical malignant bladder architecture, including the formation of papillary structures. In an effort to determine if cancer cells from primary tumors could form similar structures in vivo using this recombinatorial approach, putative CSCs, sorted based on the CD44(+)CD49f(+) antigenic profile, were collected and recombined with fetal bladder stromal cells and Matrigel prior to subcutaneous implantation. Retrieved grafts contained tumors that exhibited the same structure as the original primary human tumor. Primary bladder tumor regeneration using human fetal bladder stroma may help elucidate the influences of stroma on tumor growth and development, as well as provide an efficient and accessible system for therapeutic testing.

  9. Using Mobile Health to Support the Chronic Care Model: Developing an Institutional Initiative

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shantanu Nundy

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. Self-management support and team-based care are essential elements of the Chronic Care Model but are often limited by staff availability and reimbursement. Mobile phones are a promising platform for improving chronic care but there are few examples of successful health system implementation. Program Development. An iterative process of program design was built upon a pilot study and engaged multiple institutional stakeholders. Patients identified having a “human face” to the pilot program as essential. Stakeholders recognized the need to integrate the program with primary and specialty care but voiced concerns about competing demands on clinician time. Program Description. Nurse administrators at a university-affiliated health plan use automated text messaging to provide personalized self-management support for member patients with diabetes and facilitate care coordination with the primary care team. For example, when a patient texts a request to meet with a dietitian, a nurse-administrator coordinates with the primary care team to provide a referral. Conclusion. Our innovative program enables the existing health system to support a de novo care management program by leveraging mobile technology. The program supports self-management and team-based care in a way that we believe engages patients yet meets the limited availability of providers and needs of health plan administrators.

  10. Perceiving the initial note: quantitative models of how listeners parse cyclical auditory patterns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Minhong; Getz, Laura; Kubovy, Michael

    2015-11-01

    In this paper, we explore the rules followed by the auditory system in grouping temporal patterns. Imagine the following cyclical pattern (which we call an "auditory necklace"-AN for short-because those patterns are best visualized as beads arranged on a circle) consisting of notes (1s) and rests (0s): … 1110011011100110 …. It is perceived either as repeating 11100110 or as repeating 11011100. We devised a method to explore the temporal segmentation of ANs. In two experiments, while an AN was played, a circular array of icons appeared on the screen. At the time of each event (i.e., note or rest), one icon was highlighted; the highlight moved cyclically around the circular array. The participants were asked to click on the icon that corresponded to the note they perceived as the starting point, or clasp, of the AN. The best account of the segmentation of our ANs is based on Garner's (1974) run and gap principles. An important feature of our probabilistic model is the way in which it combines the effects of run length and gap length: additively. This result is an auditory analogue of Kubovy and van den Berg's (2008) discovery of the additivity of the effects of two visual grouping principles (proximity and similarity) conjointly applied to the same stimulus.

  11. Constraining models of initial state with v{sub 2} and v{sub 3} data from LHC and RHIC

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Retinskaya, Ekaterina, E-mail: ekaterina.retinskaya@cea.fr [CEA, IPhT, Institut de physique théorique de Saclay, F-91191 Gif-sur-Yvette (France); Luzum, Matthew, E-mail: MWLuzum@lbl.gov [McGill University, 3600 University Street, Montreal QC H3A 2TS (Canada); Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA 94720 (United States); Ollitrault, Jean-Yves, E-mail: jean-yves.ollitrault@cea.fr [CNRS, URA2306, IPhT, Institut de physique théorique de Saclay, F-91191 Gif-sur-Yvette (France)

    2014-06-15

    We present a combined analysis of elliptic and triangular flow data from LHC and RHIC using viscous relativistic hydrodynamics. Elliptic flow v{sub 2} in hydrodynamics is proportional to the participant eccentricity ε{sub 2} and triangular flow is proportional to the participant triangularity ε{sub 3}, which means v{sub n}=κ{sub n}ε{sub n}, where κ{sub n} is the linear response coefficient in harmonic n. Experimental data for v{sub 2} and v{sub 3} combined with hydrodynamic calculations of κ{sub n} thus provide us with the rms values of initial anisotropies ε{sub 2} and ε{sub 3}. By varying free parameters in the hydro calculation (in particular the shear viscosity), we obtain an allowed band in the (rms ε{sub 2}, rms ε{sub 3}) plane. Comparison with Monte Carlo models of the initial state allows us to exclude several of these models. We illustrate that the effect of changing the granularity of the initial state is similar to changing the medium properties, making these effects difficult to disentangle.

  12. Seizure-like thalamocortical rhythms initiate in the deep layers of the cortex in a co-culture model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adams, Brendan E L; Kyi, Mervyn; Reid, Christopher A; Myers, Damian E; Xu, Shenghong; Williams, David A; O'Brien, Terence J

    2011-01-01

    The oscillatory rhythms underlying many physiological and pathological states, including absence seizures, require both the thalamus and cortices for full expression. A co-culture preparation combining cortical and thalamic explants provides a unique model for investigating how such oscillations initiate and spread. Here we investigated the dynamics of synchronized thalamocortical activity by simultaneous measurement of field-potential recordings and rapid imaging of Ca(2+) transients by fluorescence methods. Spontaneous sustained hypersynchronized "seizure-like" oscillations required reciprocal cortico-thalamocortical connections. Isolated cortical explants can independently develop brief discharges, while thalamic explants alone were unable to do so. Rapid imaging of Ca(2+) transients demonstrated deep-layer cortical initiation of oscillatory network activity in both connected and isolated explants. Further, cortical explants derived from a rat model of genetic absence epilepsy showed increased bursting duration consistent with an excitable cortex. We propose that thalamocortical oscillatory network activity initiates in deep layers of the cortex with reciprocal thalamic interconnections enabling sustained hyper-synchronization.

  13. Variations of the initial mass function in semi-analytical models: implications for the chemical enrichment of galaxies in the GAEA model

    CERN Document Server

    Fontanot, Fabio; Hirschmann, Michaela; Bruzual, Gustavo; Charlot, Stephane; Zibetti, Stefano

    2016-01-01

    In this work, we investigate the implications of the Integrated Galaxy-wide stellar Initial Mass Function (IGIMF) approach in the framework of the semi-analytic model GAEA (GAlaxy Evolution and Assembly), which features a detailed treatment of chemical enrichment and stellar feedback. The IGIMF provides an analytic description of the dependence of the stellar IMF shape on the rate of star formation in galaxies. We find that our model with a universal IMF predicts a rather flat [$\\alpha$/Fe]-stellar mass relation. The model assuming the IGIMF, instead, is able to reproduce the observed increase of $\\alpha$-enhancement with stellar mass. This is mainly due to the fact that massive galaxies are characterized by larger SFRs at high-redshift, leading to stronger $\\alpha$-enhancement with respect to low-mass galaxies. At the same time, the IGIMF hypothesis does not affect significantly the trend for shorter star formation timescales for more massive galaxies. We argue that in the IGIMF scenario the [$\\alpha$/Fe] ra...

  14. A Path Model of Expressive Vocabulary Skills in Initially Preverbal Preschool Children with Autism Spectrum Disorder

    Science.gov (United States)

    McDaniel, Jena; Yoder, Paul; Watson, Linda R.

    2017-01-01

    We examined direct and indirect paths involving receptive vocabulary and diversity of key consonants used in communication (DKCC) to improve understanding of why previously identified value-added predictors are associated with later expressive vocabulary for initially preverbal children with autism spectrum disorder (ASD; n = 87). Intentional…

  15. China's Quest for World-Class Teachers: A Rational Model of National Initiatives and Institutional Transformations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jun

    2013-01-01

    Teacher education has been undergoing significant transformations worldwide in recent decades, and China has made continuous efforts in its quest for world-class teachers. This paper aims at a comprehensive investigation of the complex policy process in China's national initiatives to nurture a world-class teaching force, with qualitative findings…

  16. A fatigue crack initiation model incorporating discrete dislocation plasticity and surface roughness

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brinckmann, Steffen; Van der Giessen, Erik

    2007-01-01

    Although a thorough understanding of fatigue crack initiation is lacking, experiments have shown that the evolution of distinct dislocation distributions and surface roughness are key ingredients. In the present study we introduce a computational framework that ties together dislocation dynamics, th

  17. Marketing an Alternate Model for Science and Mathematics Initial Teacher Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seen, Andrew; Fraser, Sharon P.; Beswick, Kim; Penson, Margaret; Whannell, Robert

    2016-01-01

    An innovative initial teacher education undergraduate degree has been offered for the first time in 2016 at an Australian University. The degree provides for qualification as a secondary science and mathematics teacher through the completion of a four-year-integrated science, mathematics and education program of study where the synergies available…

  18. Modelling cross-gender and sexual relations : Exploring the Soul Buddyz Edutainment Initiative in South Africa

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    L. Cousins (Laura)

    2009-01-01

    textabstractHIV/AIDS among youth is a serious problem in South Africa. Cross-gender relations and associated constructs surrounding masculinity/femininity and sexuality are increasingly recognized as at the heart of the issue. Growing attention has thus been given to developing initiatives geared

  19. From Balanced Initial Occupant Distribution to Balanced Exit Usage in a Simulation Model of Pedestrian Dynamics

    CERN Document Server

    Kretz, Tobias

    2012-01-01

    It is tested in this contribution if and to which extend a method of a pedestrian simulation tool that attempts to make pedestrians walk into the direction of estimated earliest arrival can help to automatically distribute pedestrians - who are initially distributed arbitrarily in the scenario - equally on the various exits of the scenario.

  20. Modelling cross-gender and sexual relations : Exploring the Soul Buddyz Edutainment Initiative in South Africa

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    L. Cousins (Laura)

    2009-01-01

    textabstractHIV/AIDS among youth is a serious problem in South Africa. Cross-gender relations and associated constructs surrounding masculinity/femininity and sexuality are increasingly recognized as at the heart of the issue. Growing attention has thus been given to developing initiatives geared to

  1. Towards improved animal models for evaluating social cognition and its disruption in schizophrenia: the CNTRICS initiative.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Millan, Mark J; Bales, Karen L

    2013-11-01

    Social cognition refers to processes used to monitor and interpret social signals from others, to decipher their state of mind, emotional status and intentions, and select appropriate social behaviour. Social cognition is sophisticated in humans, being embedded with verbal language and enacted in a complex cultural environment. Its disruption characterises the entire course of schizophrenia and is correlated with poor functional outcome. Further, deficits in social cognition are related to impairment in other cognitive domains, positive symptoms (paranoia and delusions) and negative symptoms (social withdrawal and reduced motivation). In light of the significance and inadequate management of social cognition deficits, there is a need for translatable experimental procedures for their study, and identification of effective pharmacotherapy. No single paradigm captures the multi-dimensional nature of social cognition, and procedures for assessing ability to infer mental states are not well-developed for experimental therapeutic settings. Accordingly, a recent CNTRICS meeting prioritised procedures for measuring a specific construct: "acquisition and recognition of affective (emotional) states", coupled to individual recognition. Two complementary paradigms for refinement were identified: social recognition/preference in rodents, and visual tracking of social scenes in non-human primates (NHPs). Social recognition is disrupted in genetic, developmental or pharmacological disease models for schizophrenia, and performance in both procedures is improved by the neuropeptide oxytocin. The present article surveys a broad range of procedures for studying social cognition in rodents and NHPs, discusses advantages and drawbacks, and focuses on development of social recognition/preference and gaze-following paradigms for improved study of social cognition deficits in schizophrenia and their potential treatment.

  2. A degree-day model initiated by pheromone trap captures for managing pecan nut casebearer (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae) in pecans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knutson, Allen E; Muegge, Mark A

    2010-06-01

    Field observations from pecan, Carya illinoinensis (Wangenh.) Koch, orchards in Texas were used to develop and validate a degree-day model of cumulative proportional adult flight and oviposition and date of first observed nut entry by larvae of the first summer generation of the pecan nut casebearer, Acrobasis nuxvorella Nuenzig (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae). The model was initiated on the date of first sustained capture of adults in pheromone traps. Mean daily maximum and minimum temperatures were used to determine the sum of degree-days from onset to 99% moth flight and oviposition and the date on which first summer generation larvae were first observed penetrating pecan nuts. Cumulative proportional oviposition (y) was described by a modified Gompertz equation, y = 106.05 x exp(-(exp(3.11 - 0.00669 x (x - 1), with x = cumulative degree-days at a base temperature of 3.33 degrees C. Cumulative proportional moth flight (y) was modeled as y = 102.62 x exp(- (exp(1.49 - 0.00571 x (x - 1). Model prediction error for dates of 10, 25, 50, 75, and 90% cumulative oviposition was 1.3 d and 83% of the predicted dates were within +/- 2 d of the observed event. Prediction error for date of first observed nut entry was 2.2 d and 77% of model predictions were within +/- 2 d of the observed event. The model provides ample lead time for producers to implement orchard scouting to assess pecan nut casebearer infestations and to apply an insecticide if needed to prevent economic loss.

  3. Ethylene Decomposition Initiated by Ultraviolet Radiation from Low Pressure Mercury Lamps: Kinetics Model Prediction and Experimental Verification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jozwiak, Zbigniew Boguslaw

    1995-01-01

    Ethylene is an important auto-catalytic plant growth hormone. Removal of ethylene from the atmosphere surrounding ethylene-sensitive horticultural products may be very beneficial, allowing an extended period of storage and preventing or delaying the induction of disorders. Various ethylene removal techniques have been studied and put into practice. One technique is based on using low pressure mercury ultraviolet lamps as a source of photochemical energy to initiate chemical reactions that destroy ethylene. Although previous research showed that ethylene disappeared in experiments with mercury ultraviolet lamps, the reactions were not described and the actual cause of ethylene disappearance remained unknown. Proposed causes for this disappearance were the direct action of ultraviolet rays on ethylene, reaction of ethylene with ozone (which is formed when air or gas containing molecular oxygen is exposed to radiation emitted by this type of lamp), or reactions with atomic oxygen leading to formation of ozone. The objective of the present study was to determine the set of physical and chemical actions leading to the disappearance of ethylene from artificial storage atmosphere under conditions of ultraviolet irradiation. The goal was achieved by developing a static chemical model based on the physical properties of a commercially available ultraviolet lamp, the photochemistry of gases, and the kinetics of chemical reactions. The model was used to perform computer simulations predicting time dependent concentrations of chemical species included in the model. Development of the model was accompanied by the design of a reaction chamber used for experimental verification. The model provided a good prediction of the general behavior of the species involved in the chemistry under consideration; however the model predicted lower than measured rate of ethylene disappearance. Some reasons for the model -experiment disagreement are radiation intensity averaging, the experimental

  4. Quantum mechanics allows setting initial conditions at a cosmological singularity: Gowdy model example

    CERN Document Server

    Cherkas, S L

    2015-01-01

    It is shown, that initial conditions in the quasi-Heisenberg quantization scheme can be set at an initial cosmological singularity per se. This possibility is provided by finiteness of some quantities, namely momentums of the dynamical variables, at a singularity, in spite of infinity of the dynamical variables themselves. The uncertainty principle allows avoiding a necessity to set values of the dynamical variables at singularity, as a wave packet can be expressed through the finite momentums. The issue of a vacuum energy, arising during evolution when the gravitational waves appear, is addressed as well. It is shown that, in the certain gauge, the equations of motion contain a difference of kinetic and potential energies of the field oscillators. Thus, in this gauge, the leading divergent parts of the vacuum energy in the equations of motion cancel each other. It is conjectured that the UV cut-off allows physical interpretation of the weakly divergent part of the vacuum energy.

  5. Integrating stage and continuum models to explain processing of exercise messages and exercise initiation among sedentary college students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosen, C S

    2000-03-01

    Concepts from the transtheoretical model (J.O. Prochaska, C.C. DiClemente, & J.C. Norcross, 1992), theory of planned behavior (I. Ajzen, 1985), and the elaboration likelihood model (R.E. Petty & J.T. Cacioppo, 1986b) were used to examine how exercise readiness impacted processing of exercise messages and exercise initiation. Sedentary college students (n = 147) were assessed for exercise attitude, intent, behavior, and stage of change. Students also listed their thoughts after reading messages with either strong or weak arguments for exercise. Attitude predicted depth of message processing, but stage of change did not. Stage of change and intent at baseline predicted exercise adoption at 1- to 3-month follow-up (n = 134), with baseline activity moderating the effect of intent. Tailoring messages to recipients' depth of processing and interactive effects of intent and behavior on exercise adoption should be considered in future research.

  6. The social paediatrics initiative: a RICHER model of primary health care for at risk children and their families.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong, Sabrina T; Lynam, M Judith; Khan, Koushambhi B; Scott, Lorine; Loock, Christine

    2012-10-04

    The Responsive Interdisciplinary Child-Community Health Education and Research (RICHER) initiative is an intersectoral and interdisciplinary community outreach primary health care (PHC) model. It is being undertaken in partnership with community based organizations in order to address identified gaps in the continuum of health services delivery for 'at risk' children and their families. As part of a larger study, this paper reports on whether the RICHER initiative is associated with increased: 1) access to health care for children and families with multiple forms of disadvantage and 2) patient-reported empowerment. This study provides the first examination of a model of delivering PHC, using a Social Paediatrics approach. This was a mixed-methods study, using quantitative and qualitative approaches; it was undertaken in partnership with the community, both organizations and individual providers. Descriptive statistics, including logistic regression of patient survey data (n=86) and thematic analyses of patient interview data (n=7) were analyzed to examine the association between patient experiences with the RICHER initiative and parent-reported empowerment. Respondents found communication with the provider clear, that the provider explained any test results in a way they could understand, and that the provider was compassionate and respectful. Analysis of the survey and in-depth interview data provide evidence that interpersonal communication, particularly the provider's interpersonal style (e.g., being treated as an equal), was very important. Even after controlling for parents' education and ethnicity, the provider's interpersonal style remained positively associated with parent-reported empowerment (p<0.01). This model of PHC delivery is unique in its purposeful and required partnerships between health care providers and community members. This study provides beginning evidence that RICHER can better meet the health and health care needs of people, especially

  7. Modelling American trypanosomiasis in an endemic zone: application to the initial spread of household infection in the Argentine Chaco.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fabrizio, M C; Schweigmann, N J; Bartoloni, N J

    2014-12-01

    The complex dynamics of Trypanosoma cruzi infection (Chagas disease) involves different actors and multiple transmission routes. Based on the information currently available, here, we propose a new and more comprehensive model to better understand the dynamics of the infection. This mathematical deterministic model was formulated considering: (i) the three clinical forms in humans: acute, chronic indeterminate and chronic with determinate pathology, (ii) the three main modes of transmission in the human population: vector-borne, congenital and transfusional, (iii) populations of triatomines and dogs as the main domestic reservoirs of T. cruzi and (iv) open populations. A numerical simulation was also performed to estimate the initial spread of the infection in a typical rural household in the endemic zone of the Argentine Gran Chaco. We also analysed the incidence of infected individuals corresponding to each of the three species (humans/triatomines/dogs) over times until the appearance of the first case in the other species. The model predicts that, in the absence of control measures, a few infected individuals are sufficient for the establishment and dispersion of the infection in all the inhabitants of the household. The model proposed and the results obtained allow describing the consequences of the presence of infected individuals in any of the three species considered in the dynamics and the output of the infection.

  8. Review of Phenomenological Models for the Initial Phase HCDA Analysis in a Metal-Fueled Sodium-Cooled Fast Reactor

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kwon, Young Min; Lee, Ki Rim; Ha, Kwi Seok; Chang, Won Pyo; Suk, Soo Dong

    2009-03-15

    The safety aspects of the KALIMER design results from the advanced safety performance characteristics of its ternary alloy metallic fuel. The superior thermal, mechanical, and neutronic performance of the metal-fueled core assures inherent safety response to unprotected and multiple fault accidents which are HCDA initiating events. HCDA has received great attentions because of its significant consequence, leading to substantial core disruption, although its probability of occurrence is very low. The SAS4A code provides an integrated quantitative framework for examining the phenomenological behaviors under HCDA conditions. Various phenomenological models such as prefailure characterization, transient pin response, margins to cladding failure, axial in-pin fuel relocation prior to cladding breach, and molten fuel relocation after cladding breach are required for the HCDA analysis. The important mechanisms which introduce negative reactivity during HCDA are fuel extrusion and in-pin fuel relocation, and structural feedback through thermal-mechanical neutronic effects. This report describes the safety performance characteristics of the metal fuel as observed in ex-pile and in-pile tests, and describes associated theoretical models employed into the SAS4A HCDA analysis code. Most of such tests and experiments, and development of theoretical models have been performed for the IFR program by ANL. This report provides a phenomenological basis for gaining an understanding of the metal fuel performance characteristics that obtained from expile experiments and in-pile tests. This report will provide insight and direction for planning HCDA experiments and developing theoretical models in Korea later.

  9. A new modeling of the initial buildup evolution on a wire in an axial HGMF filter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Badescu, V.; Murariu, V.; Rotariu, O.; Rezlescu, N.

    1996-10-01

    The buildup differential equations are solved for a single wire in the axial HGMF configuration. A new equation for the deposit contour surface at different moments for the initial buildup process is obtained. In addition, a limitation is obtained for the deposit surface, considering the balance between the magnetic force and the hydrodynamic erosion force. From this, the saturation accumulation radius is obtained in terms of the Reynolds' number for a particle and the {v m}/{v 0} ratio.

  10. Investigation of a model for the initiation of breastfeeding in primigravida women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dusdieker, L B; Booth, B M; Seals, B F; Ekwo, E E

    1985-01-01

    Primigravida women are faced with the decision about how they will feed their infants. Many will decide to breastfeed but the motivation for this choice is unclear. While certain beliefs and worries about breastfeeding appear to predict women who will choose to breastfeed, such concepts are influenced by a combination of other values, support resources and socioeconomic background. The main goal of this research was to demonstrate how multivariate analysis can be applied to the infant-feeding decision and how it can lend a theoretical interpretation to social issues such as the initiation of breastfeeding. One hundred completely breastfeeding and 57 bottle feeding primigravida women were enrolled in the study and completed a pretested Likert-type questionnaire. Three primary predictors for the initiation of breastfeeding were identified: positive maternal beliefs about breastfeeding; the absence of maternal worries about breastfeeding; and higher levels of maternal education. Secondary psychosocial predictors significantly associated with maternal breastfeeding beliefs included maternal beliefs in increased personal satisfaction from breastfeeding and maternal beliefs in preventive health measures. Secondary psychosocial predictors significantly related to maternal worries about breastfeeding before breastfeeding began. Over half of the strength of the direct psychosocial predictors for breastfeeding initiation could be attributed to their respective groups of indirect predictors. Thus, the main contribution of this research has been to shift the emphasis of past research away from differences between groups of bottle feeders and breastfeeders to focus more precisely on the decision-making process involved in the infant feeding choice.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

  11. Molecular Theory of Detonation Initiation: Insight from First Principles Modeling of the Decomposition Mechanisms of Organic Nitro Energetic Materials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsyshevsky, Roman V; Sharia, Onise; Kuklja, Maija M

    2016-02-19

    This review presents a concept, which assumes that thermal decomposition processes play a major role in defining the sensitivity of organic energetic materials to detonation initiation. As a science and engineering community we are still far away from having a comprehensive molecular detonation initiation theory in a widely agreed upon form. However, recent advances in experimental and theoretical methods allow for a constructive and rigorous approach to design and test the theory or at least some of its fundamental building blocks. In this review, we analyzed a set of select experimental and theoretical articles, which were augmented by our own first principles modeling and simulations, to reveal new trends in energetic materials and to refine known existing correlations between their structures, properties, and functions. Our consideration is intentionally limited to the processes of thermally stimulated chemical reactions at the earliest stage of decomposition of molecules and materials containing defects.

  12. Molecular Theory of Detonation Initiation: Insight from First Principles Modeling of the Decomposition Mechanisms of Organic Nitro Energetic Materials

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roman V. Tsyshevsky

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available This review presents a concept, which assumes that thermal decomposition processes play a major role in defining the sensitivity of organic energetic materials to detonation initiation. As a science and engineering community we are still far away from having a comprehensive molecular detonation initiation theory in a widely agreed upon form. However, recent advances in experimental and theoretical methods allow for a constructive and rigorous approach to design and test the theory or at least some of its fundamental building blocks. In this review, we analyzed a set of select experimental and theoretical articles, which were augmented by our own first principles modeling and simulations, to reveal new trends in energetic materials and to refine known existing correlations between their structures, properties, and functions. Our consideration is intentionally limited to the processes of thermally stimulated chemical reactions at the earliest stage of decomposition of molecules and materials containing defects.

  13. A conceptual model of optimal international service-learning and its application to global health initiatives in rehabilitation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pechak, Celia M; Thompson, Mary

    2009-11-01

    There is growing involvement by US clinicians, faculty members, and students in global health initiatives, including international service-learning (ISL). Limited research has been done to examine the profession's increasing global engagement, or the ISL phenomenon in particular, and no research has been done to determine best practices. This study was intended as an early step in the examination of the physical therapy profession's role and activities in the global health arena within and beyond academics. The purposes of this study were: (1) to identify and analyze the common structures and processes among established ISL programs within physical therapist education programs and (2) to develop a conceptual model of optimal ISL within physical therapist education programs. A descriptive, exploratory study was completed using grounded theory. Telephone interviews were completed with 14 faculty members who had been involved in international service, international learning, or ISL in physical therapist education programs. Interviews were transcribed, and transcriptions were analyzed using the grounded theory method. Four major themes emerged from the data: structure, reciprocity, relationship, and sustainability. A conceptual model of and a proposed definition for optimal ISL in physical therapist education were developed. Seven essential components of the conceptual model are: a partner that understands the role of physical therapy, community-identified needs, explicit service and learning objectives, reflection, preparation, risk management, and service and learning outcome measures. Essential consequences are positive effects on students and community. The conceptual model and definition of optimal ISL can be used to direct development of new ISL programs and to improve existing programs. In addition, they can offer substantive guidance to any physical therapist involved in global health initiatives.

  14. Reducing software security risk through an integrated approach research initiative model based verification of the Secure Socket Layer (SSL) Protocol

    Science.gov (United States)

    Powell, John D.

    2003-01-01

    This document discusses the verification of the Secure Socket Layer (SSL) communication protocol as a demonstration of the Model Based Verification (MBV) portion of the verification instrument set being developed under the Reducing Software Security Risk (RSSR) Trough an Integrated Approach research initiative. Code Q of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) funds this project. The NASA Goddard Independent Verification and Validation (IV&V) facility manages this research program at the NASA agency level and the Assurance Technology Program Office (ATPO) manages the research locally at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (California institute of Technology) where the research is being carried out.

  15. Mebendazole and a non-steroidal anti-inflammatory combine to reduce tumor initiation in a colon cancer preclinical model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williamson, Tara; Bai, Ren-Yuan; Staedtke, Verena; Huso, David; Riggins, Gregory J

    2016-10-18

    Inheritance of a gene mutation leads to the initiation of 5 to 10% of most cancers, including colon cancer cases. We developed a chemoprevention strategy using a novel combination of the non-steroidal anti-inflammatory (NSAID) sulindac plus the anthelminthic benzimidazole, mebendazole. This oral drug combination was effective in the ApcMin/+ mouse model of Familial Adenomatous Polyposis (FAP). Treatment with 35 mg/kg daily mebendazole reduced the number of intestinal adenomas by 56% (P = 0.0002), 160 ppm sulindac by 74% (P cancer patients using mebendazole either alone or in combination. The findings have implications for populations with moderate and above risk for developing cancer.

  16. Flow processes on the catchment scale - modeling of initial structural states and hydrological behavior in an artificial exemplary catchment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maurer, Thomas; Caviedes-Voullième, Daniel; Hinz, Christoph; Gerke, Horst H.

    2017-04-01

    Landscapes that are heavily disturbed or newly formed by either natural processes or human activity are in a state of disequilibrium. Their initial development is thus characterized by highly dynamic processes under all climatic conditions. The primary distribution and structure of the solid phase (i.e. mineral particles forming the pore space) is one of the decisive factors for the development of hydrological behavior of the eco-hydrological system and therefore (co-) determining for its - more or less - stable final state. The artificially constructed ‚Hühnerwasser' catchment (a 6 ha area located in the open-cast lignite mine Welzow-Süd, southern Brandenburg, Germany) is a landscape laboratory where the initial eco-hydrological development is observed since 2005. The specific formation (or construction) processes generated characteristic sediment structures and distributions, resulting in a spatially heterogeneous initial state of the catchment. We developed a structure generator that simulates the characteristic distribution of the solid phase for such constructed landscapes. The program is able to generate quasi-realistic structures and sediment compositions on multiple spatial levels (1 cm up to 100 m scale). The generated structures can be i) conditioned to actual measurement values (e.g., soil texture and bulk distribution); ii) stochastically generated, and iii) calculated deterministically according to the geology and technical processes at the excavation site. Results are visualized using the GOCAD software package and the free software Paraview. Based on the 3D-spatial sediment distributions, effective hydraulic van-Genuchten parameters are calculated using pedotransfer functions. The hydraulic behavior of different sediment distribution (i.e. versions or variations of the catchment's porous body) is calculated using a numerical model developed by one of us (Caviedes-Voullième). Observation data are available from catchment monitoring are available

  17. Study on the Withdrawal Way of Silk Road Fund under the Belt and Road Initiative Based on Game Theory Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qu Yingying

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The Silk Road Fund is an important financial support of The Belt and Road Initiative, it has a strict investment operation process to realize the capital appreciation, so the withdrawal is crucial. This paper models the utility game and find the game mechanism between Silk Road Fund and target enterprise. And then we put forward some referential suggestions such as choosing suitable withdraw opportunity, perfecting talent team and information transmission mechanism,strengthening cooperation with local government, making effective use of gambling agreement and actively exploring new exit mode.

  18. Reducing software security risk through an integrated approach research initiative model based verification of the Secure Socket Layer (SSL) Protocol

    Science.gov (United States)

    Powell, John D.

    2003-01-01

    This document discusses the verification of the Secure Socket Layer (SSL) communication protocol as a demonstration of the Model Based Verification (MBV) portion of the verification instrument set being developed under the Reducing Software Security Risk (RSSR) Trough an Integrated Approach research initiative. Code Q of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) funds this project. The NASA Goddard Independent Verification and Validation (IV&V) facility manages this research program at the NASA agency level and the Assurance Technology Program Office (ATPO) manages the research locally at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (California institute of Technology) where the research is being carried out.

  19. Subduction initiation from a stagnant lid and global overturn: new insights from numerical models with a free surface

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crameri, Fabio; Tackley, Paul J.

    2016-12-01

    Subduction initiation is a key in understanding the dynamic evolution of the Earth and its fundamental difference to all other rocky planetary bodies in our solar system. Despite recent progress, the question about how a stiff, mostly stagnant planetary lid can break and become part in the global overturn of the mantle is still unresolved. Many mechanisms, externally or internally driven, are proposed in previous studies. Here, we present the results on subduction initiation obtained by dynamically self-consistent, time-dependent numerical modelling of mantle convection. We show that the stress distribution and resulting deformation of the lithosphere are strongly controlled by the top boundary formulation: A free surface enables surface topography and plate bending, increases gravitational sliding of the plates and leads to more realistic, lithosphere-scale shear zones. As a consequence, subduction initiation induced by regional mantle flow is demonstrably favoured by a free surface compared to the commonly applied, vertically fixed (i.e. free-slip) surface. In addition, we present global, three-dimensional mantle convection experiments that employ basal heating that leads to narrow mantle plumes. Narrow mantle plumes impinging on the base of the plate cause locally weak plate segments and a large topography at the lithosphere-asthenosphere boundary. Both are shown to be key to induce subduction initiation. Finally, our model self-consistently reproduces an episodic lid with a fast global overturn due to the hotter mantle developed below a former stagnant lid. We conclude that once in a stagnant-lid mode, a planet (like Venus) might preferentially evolve by temporally discrete, global overturn events rather than by a continuous recycling of lid and that this is something worth testing more rigorously in future studies.

  20. THE INITIAL MASS FUNCTION MODELED BY A LEFT TRUNCATED BETA DISTRIBUTION

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zaninetti, Lorenzo, E-mail: zaninetti@ph.unito.it [Dipartimento di Fisica, Via Pietro Giuria 1, I-10125 Torino (Italy)

    2013-03-10

    The initial mass function for stars is usually fitted by three straight lines, which means it has seven parameters. The presence of brown dwarfs (BDs) increases the number of straight lines to four and the number of parameters to nine. Another common fitting function is the lognormal distribution, which is characterized by two parameters. This paper is devoted to demonstrating the advantage of introducing a left truncated beta probability density function, which is characterized by four parameters. The constant of normalization, the mean, the mode, and the distribution function are calculated for the left truncated beta distribution. The normal beta distribution that results from convolving independent normally distributed and beta distributed components is also derived. The chi-square test and the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test are performed on a first sample of stars and BDs that belongs to the massive young cluster NGC 6611, and on a second sample that represents the masses of the stars of the cluster NGC 2362.

  1. The initial mass function modeled by a left truncated beta distribution

    CERN Document Server

    Zaninetti, L

    2013-01-01

    The initial mass function (IMF) for the stars is usually fitted by three straight lines, which means seven parameters. The presence of brown dwarfs (BD) increases to four the straight lines and to nine the parameters. Another common fitting function is the lognormal distribution, which is characterized by two parameters. This paper is devoted to demonstrating the advantage of introducing a left truncated beta probability density function, which is characterized by four parameters. The constant of normalization, the mean, the mode and the distribution function are calculated for the left truncated beta distribution. The normal-beta (NB) distribution which results from convolving independent normally distributed and beta distributed components is also derived. The chi-square test and the K-S test are performed on a first sample of stars and BDs which belongs to the massive young cluster NGC 6611 and on a second sample which represents the star's masses of the cluster NGC 2362.

  2. A Path Model of Expressive Vocabulary Skills in Initially Preverbal Preschool Children with Autism Spectrum Disorder.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McDaniel, Jena; Yoder, Paul; Watson, Linda R

    2017-04-01

    We examined direct and indirect paths involving receptive vocabulary and diversity of key consonants used in communication (DKCC) to improve understanding of why previously identified value-added predictors are associated with later expressive vocabulary for initially preverbal children with autism spectrum disorder (ASD; n = 87). Intentional communication, DKCC, and parent linguistic responses accounted for unique variance in later expressive vocabulary when controlling for mid-point receptive vocabulary, but responding to joint attention did not. We did not confirm any indirect paths through mid-point receptive vocabulary. DKCC mediated the association between intentional communication and expressive vocabulary. Further research is needed to replicate the findings, test potentially causal relations, and provide a specific sequence of intervention targets for preverbal children with ASD.

  3. The UK Pathology Harmony initiative; The foundation of a global model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berg, Jonathan

    2014-05-15

    The United Kingdom Pathology Harmony project commenced in 2007 and has been widely mirrored around the world. This initiative evolved through three separate phases of work. Fundamental to the project has been the ability to question variation in the work of the pathology laboratory that has been in place sometimes for a very long time, and yet appears to have little scientific foundation. Work has been undertaken on a methodological approach to studying variation in reference intervals and then moving forward with consensus values. On a wider level there is much else in pathology that can be harmonised from test names and units, through to the clinical guidance we offer for using our tests and work has been undertaken in several of these areas.

  4. Application of expert system technology to nondestructive waste assay - initial prototype model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Becker, G.K.; Determan, J.C. [Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Lab., Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    1997-11-01

    Expert system technology has been identified as a technique useful for filling certain types of technology/capability gaps in existing waste nondestructive assay (NDA) applications. In particular, expert system techniques are being investigated with the intent of providing on-line evaluation of acquired data and/or directed acquisition of data in a manner that mimics the logic and decision making process a waste NDA expert would employ. The space from which information and data sources utilized in this process is much expanded with respect to the algorithmic approach typically utilized in waste NDA. Expert system technology provides a mechanism to manage and reason with this expanded information/data set. The material presented in this paper concerns initial studies and a resultant prototype expert system that incorporates pertinent information, and evaluation logic and decision processes, for the purpose of validating acquired waste NDA measurement assays. 6 refs., 6 figs.

  5. Plant functional type classification for earth system models: results from the European Space Agency's Land Cover Climate Change Initiative

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poulter, B.; MacBean, N.; Hartley, A.; Khlystova, I.; Arino, O.; Betts, R.; Bontemps, S.; Boettcher, M.; Brockmann, C.; Defourny, P.; Hagemann, S.; Herold, M.; Kirches, G.; Lamarche, C.; Lederer, D.; Ottlé, C.; Peters, M.; Peylin, P.

    2015-07-01

    Global land cover is a key variable in the earth system with feedbacks on climate, biodiversity and natural resources. However, global land cover data sets presently fall short of user needs in providing detailed spatial and thematic information that is consistently mapped over time and easily transferable to the requirements of earth system models. In 2009, the European Space Agency launched the Climate Change Initiative (CCI), with land cover (LC_CCI) as 1 of 13 essential climate variables targeted for research development. The LC_CCI was implemented in three phases: first responding to a survey of user needs; developing a global, moderate-resolution land cover data set for three time periods, or epochs (2000, 2005, and 2010); and the last phase resulting in a user tool for converting land cover to plant functional type equivalents. Here we present the results of the LC_CCI project with a focus on the mapping approach used to convert the United Nations Land Cover Classification System to plant functional types (PFTs). The translation was performed as part of consultative process among map producers and users, and resulted in an open-source conversion tool. A comparison with existing PFT maps used by three earth system modeling teams shows significant differences between the LC_CCI PFT data set and those currently used in earth system models with likely consequences for modeling terrestrial biogeochemistry and land-atmosphere interactions. The main difference between the new LC_CCI product and PFT data sets used currently by three different dynamic global vegetation modeling teams is a reduction in high-latitude grassland cover, a reduction in tropical tree cover and an expansion in temperate forest cover in Europe. The LC_CCI tool is flexible for users to modify land cover to PFT conversions and will evolve as phase 2 of the European Space Agency CCI program continues.

  6. [Stent implantation as initial coronary interventional therapy? A theoretical model on clinical and economical consequences of in-stent restenosis].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pfund, A; Wendland, G; Baer, F; Lauterbach, K; Höpp, H W

    2000-08-01

    The reduction of acute complications and late restenosis compared to conventional PTCA has led to a rapid increase in stent implantation as initial treatment for coronary stenosis. As a result, in-stent restenosis has become an important clinical and economical problem, especially the diffuse form, which is much more likely to reappear. In order to compare the consequences of initial stenting and initial angioplasty, we developed an analytic model, considering the differences between diffuse and focal in-stent restenosis. The simulation based on the optimized therapeutic proceeding following an elective 1-vessel revascularization of a 60-year-old patient, dealing with probabilities for acute complications and late restenosis taken from the literature and in-hospital costs obtained from 200 elective interventions. In the stent group 71.0% of patients were free of any target lesion-related event, compared to 60.2% in the PTCA group. Catheter reintervention was necessary for 32.1% of the patients initially treated with angioplasty and for 17.6% of the initially stented patients, whereas 7.7% of the stent patients had to undergo elective bypass surgery as final treatment compared to 2.8% in the PTCA arm. Long-term medical costs for initial stenting (6,237 Euros) were 14% higher than for conventional PTCA (5,345 Euros). Taking also into consideration the indirect costs (loss of productivity) for a collective with an employment rate of 50%, the difference between stent implantation (9,067 Euros) and angioplasty (8,581 Euros) is smaller. Initial treatment of coronary stenosis by stent implantation decreases the rate of repeat revascularization compared to initial PTCA, but there is a greater likelihood that elective bypass surgery will become necessary. This difference in following treatment is related to the occurrence of diffuse in-stent restenosis. When calculating the long-term costs stenting still appeared to be more expensive than PTCAA because the savings in

  7. Monitoring and modeling conditions for regional shallow landslide initiation in the San Francisco Bay area, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collins, B. D.; Stock, J. D.; Godt, J. W.

    2012-12-01

    Intense winter storms in the San Francisco Bay area (SFBA) of California often trigger widespread landsliding, including debris flows that originate as shallow (initiation thresholds are available for the SFBA, antecedent soil moisture conditions also play a major role in determining the likelihood for landslide generation from a given storm. Previous research has demonstrated that antecedent triggering conditions can be obtained using pre-storm precipitation thresholds (e.g., 250-400 mm of seasonal pre-storm rainfall). However, these types of thresholds do not account for the often cyclic pattern of wetting and drying that can occur early in the winter storm season (i.e. October - December), and which may skew the applicability of precipitation-only based thresholds. To account for these cyclic and constantly evolving soil moisture conditions, we have pursued methods to measure soil moisture directly and integrate these measurements into predictive analyses. During the past three years, the USGS installed a series of four subsurface hydrology monitoring stations in shallow landslide-prone locations of the SFBA to establish a soil-moisture-based antecedent threshold. In addition to soil moisture sensors, the monitoring stations are each equipped with piezometers to record positive pore water pressure that is likely required for shallow landslide initiation and a rain gauge to compare storm intensities with existing precipitation-based thresholds. Each monitoring station is located on a natural, grassy hillslope typically composed of silty sands, underlain by sandstone, sloping at approximately 30°, and with a depth to bedrock of approximately 1 meter - conditions typical of debris flow generation in the SFBA. Our observations reveal that various locations respond differently to seasonal precipitation, with some areas (e.g., Marin County) remaining at higher levels of saturation for longer periods of time during the winter compared to other areas (e.g., the East

  8. Finite Source Modeling of the January 2015 Mendocino Transform Earthquake using the Cascadia Initiative dataset

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gong, J.; McGuire, J. J.

    2016-12-01

    In 2014-2015, the NSF Cascadia Initiative deployed an onshore-offshore seismic array covering the southernmost part of the Casacadia Subduction zone near the Mendocino Triple Junction (MTJ). When combined with the onshore Plate Boundary Observatory, Berkeley, and Northern California Seismic Networks, they provide unusually dense coverage of the triple junction and an opportunity to study the interactions between the different boundaries. The largest earthquake recorded in the experiment was a Mw 5.7 rupture of the Mendocino Transform Fault that occurred just offshore on January 28 at 21:08:53 (UTC). The location of this earthquake from NEIC indicates a hypocentral depth of 17.2 km, with longitude and latitude of (40.318N, -124.607W). The earthquake and its aftershocks were well captured by ocean bottom seismometers of the Cascadia Initiative and the onshore seismic networks. The combined onshore/offshore network provides unusually good coverage to study the kinematic properties of the rupture. In particular, several offshore strong-motion stations recorded the event on-scale and can be combined with the onshore stations. We use an empirical Green's function (EGF) deconvolution method on regional body waves to remove the propagation effects. We obtain apparent source time functions for 5 OBS stations and 5 onshore seismic stations. Then based on the coherent variations in the durations of these apparent source time functions we apply the second moment tensor inversion method (McGuire, BSSA 2004) to estimate the finite source properties of the rupture. Our calculation indicates a characteristic rupture area to be 6.5 km by 3.5 km with a rupture duration to be 2.2s, a rupture velocity to be 2.8 km/s, and a strong directivity to the west. The main shock triggered a spatially extended aftershock sequence along the Mendocino Transfom Fault. However, despite causing a small increase in Coulomb stress on the Cascadia Thrust Interface, there is no evidence of triggered

  9. Implementation of a 3-D-Var system for atmospheric profiling data assimilation into the RAMS model: initial results

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Federico

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the current status of development of a three-dimensional variational data assimilation system. The system can be used with different numerical weather prediction models, but it is mainly designed to be coupled with the Regional Atmospheric Modelling System (RAMS. Analyses are given for the following parameters: zonal and meridional wind components, temperature, relative humidity, and geopotential height. Important features of the data assimilation system are the use of incremental formulation of the cost-function, and the use of an analysis space represented by recursive filters and eigenmodes of the vertical background error matrix. This matrix and the length-scale of the recursive filters are estimated by the National Meteorological Center (NMC method. The data assimilation and forecasting system is applied to the real context of atmospheric profiling data assimilation, and in particular to the short-term wind prediction. The analyses are produced at 20 km horizontal resolution over central Europe and extend over the whole troposphere. Assimilated data are vertical soundings of wind, temperature, and relative humidity from radiosondes, and wind measurements of the European wind profiler network. Results show the validity of the analysis solutions because they are closer to the observations (lower RMSE compared to the background (higher RMSE, and the differences of the RMSEs are consistent with the data assimilation settings. To quantify the impact of improved initial conditions on the short-term forecast, the analyses are used as initial conditions of a three-hours forecast of the RAMS model. In particular two sets of forecasts are produced: (a the first uses the ECMWF analysis/forecast cycle as initial and boundary conditions; (b the second uses the analyses produced by the 3-D-Var scheme as initial conditions, then is driven by the ECMWF forecast. The improvement is quantified by considering the horizontal components of

  10. Model study of initial adsorption of SO{sub 2} on calcite and dolomite

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Malaga-Starzec, Katarina; Panas, Itai; Lindqvist, Oliver

    2004-01-30

    The rate of calcareous stone degradation is to a significant extent controlled by their surface chemistry with SO{sub 2}. Initial surface sulphite is converted to a harmful gypsum upon, e.g. NO{sub 2} catalysed oxidation. However, it has been observed by scanning electron microscopy that the lateral distributions of gypsum crystals differ between calcitic and dolomitic marbles. The first-principles density functional theory is employed to understand the origin of these fundamentally different morphologies. Here, the stability differences of surface sulphite at calcite CaCO{sub 3} (s) and dolomite Ca{sub x}Mg{sub 1-x}CO{sub 3} (s) are determined. A qualitative difference in surface sulphite stability, favouring the former, is reported. This is taken to imply that calcitic micro-crystals embedded in a dolomitic matrix act as sinks in the surface sulphation process, controlled by SO{sub 2} diffusion. The subsequent formation of gypsum under such conditions will not require SO{sub 4}{sup 2-} (aq) ion transport. This explains the homogeneous distribution of gypsum observed on the calcitic micro-crystals in dolomite. In contrast, sulphation on purely calcitic marbles never reaches such high SO{sub 2} coverage. Rather, upon oxidation, SO{sub 4}{sup 2-} (aq) transport to nucleation centres, such as grain boundaries, is required for the growth of gypsum crystals.

  11. In silico toxicology models and databases as FDA Critical Path Initiative toolkits.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valerio, Luis G

    2011-03-01

    In silico toxicology methods are practical, evidence-based and high throughput, with varying accuracy. In silico approaches are of keen interest, not only to scientists in the private sector and to academic researchers worldwide, but also to the public. They are being increasingly evaluated and applied by regulators. Although there are foreseeable beneficial aspects--including maximising use of prior test data and the potential for minimising animal use for future toxicity testing--the primary use of in silico toxicology methods in the pharmaceutical sciences are as decision support information. It is possible for in silico toxicology methods to complement and strengthen the evidence for certain regulatory review processes, and to enhance risk management by supporting a more informed decision regarding priority setting for additional toxicological testing in research and product development. There are also several challenges with these continually evolving methods which clearly must be considered. This mini-review describes in silico methods that have been researched as Critical Path Initiative toolkits for predicting toxicities early in drug development based on prior knowledge derived from preclinical and clinical data at the US Food and Drug Administration, Center for Drug Evaluation and Research.

  12. In silico toxicology models and databases as FDA Critical Path Initiative toolkits

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valerio Luis G

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract In silico toxicology methods are practical, evidence-based and high throughput, with varying accuracy. In silico approaches are of keen interest, not only to scientists in the private sector and to academic researchers worldwide, but also to the public. They are being increasingly evaluated and applied by regulators. Although there are foreseeable beneficial aspects -- including maximising use of prior test data and the potential for minimising animal use for future toxicity testing -- the primary use of in silico toxicology methods in the pharmaceutical sciences are as decision support information. It is possible for in silico toxicology methods to complement and strengthen the evidence for certain regulatory review processes, and to enhance risk management by supporting a more informed decision regarding priority setting for additional toxicological testing in research and product development. There are also several challenges with these continually evolving methods which clearly must be considered. This mini-review describes in silico methods that have been researched as Critical Path Initiative toolkits for predicting toxicities early in drug development based on prior knowledge derived from preclinical and clinical data at the US Food and Drug Administration, Center for Drug Evaluation and Research.

  13. Initiation of a Marinoan Snowball Earth in a state-of-the-art atmosphere-ocean general circulation model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Voigt

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available We study the initiation of a Marinoan Snowball Earth (635 million years before present with the most sophisticated atmosphere-ocean general circulation model ever used for this purpose, ECHAM5/MPI-OM. A comparison with a pre-industrial control climate shows that the change of surface boundary conditions from present-day to Marinoan, including a shift of continents to low latitudes, induces a global mean cooling of 4.6 K. Two thirds of this cooling can be attributed to increased planetary albedo, the remaining one third to a weaker greenhouse effect. The Marinoan Snowball Earth bifurcation point for pre-industrial atmospheric carbon dioxide is between 95.5 and 96% of the present-day total solar irradiance (TSI, whereas a previous study with the same model found that it was between 91 and 94% for present-day surface boundary conditions. A Snowball Earth for TSI set to its Marinoan value (94% of the present-day TSI is prevented by quadrupling carbon dioxide with respect to its pre-industrial level. A zero-dimensional energy balance model is used to predict the Snowball Earth bifurcation point from only the equilibrium global mean ocean potential temperature for present-day TSI. We do not find stable states with sea-ice cover above 55%, and land conditions are such that glaciers could not grow with sea-ice cover of 55%. Therefore, none of our simulations qualifies as a "slushball" solution. In summary, our results contradict previous claims that Snowball Earth initiation would require "extreme" forcings.

  14. Circles of Care: Development and Initial Evaluation of a Peer Support Model for African Americans With Advanced Cancer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanson, Laura C.; Armstrong, Tonya D.; Green, Melissa A.; Hayes, Michelle; Peacock, Stacie; Elliot-Bynum, Sharon; Goldmon, Moses V.; Corbie-Smith, Giselle; Earp, Jo Anne

    2017-01-01

    Peer support interventions extend care and health information to underserved populations yet rarely address serious illness. Investigators from a well-defined academic–community partnership developed and evaluated a peer support intervention for African Americans facing advanced cancer. Evaluation methods used the Reach, Efficacy, Adoption, Implementation, Maintenance (RE-AIM) framework. Investigators initially recruited and trained 24 lay health advisors who shared information or support with 210 individuals. However, lay advisors reported barriers of medical privacy and lack of confidence working alone with people with cancer. Training was modified to match the support team model for peer support; training reached 193 volunteers, 104 of whom formed support teams for 47 persons with serious illness. Support teams were adopted by 23 community organizations, including 11 African American churches. Volunteers in teams felt prepared to implement many aspects of supportive care such as practical support (32%) or help with cancer or palliative care resources (43%). People with serious illness requested help with practical, emotional, spiritual, and quality of life needs; however, they rarely wanted advocacy (3%) or cancer or palliative care resources (5%) from support teams. Volunteers had difficulty limiting outreach to people with advanced cancer due to medical privacy concerns and awareness that others could benefit. Support teams are a promising model of peer support for African Americans facing advanced cancer and serious illness, with reach, adoption, and implementation superior to the lay advisor model. This formative initial evaluation provides evidence for feasibility and acceptance. Further research should examine the efficacy and potential for maintenance of this intervention. PMID:23077156

  15. Circles of care: development and initial evaluation of a peer support model for African Americans with advanced cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanson, Laura C; Armstrong, Tonya D; Green, Melissa A; Hayes, Michelle; Peacock, Stacie; Elliot-Bynum, Sharon; Goldmon, Moses V; Corbie-Smith, Giselle; Earp, Jo Anne

    2013-10-01

    Peer support interventions extend care and health information to underserved populations yet rarely address serious illness. Investigators from a well-defined academic-community partnership developed and evaluated a peer support intervention for African Americans facing advanced cancer. Evaluation methods used the Reach, Efficacy, Adoption, Implementation, Maintenance (RE-AIM) framework. Investigators initially recruited and trained 24 lay health advisors who shared information or support with 210 individuals. However, lay advisors reported barriers of medical privacy and lack of confidence working alone with people with cancer. Training was modified to match the support team model for peer support; training reached 193 volunteers, 104 of whom formed support teams for 47 persons with serious illness. Support teams were adopted by 23 community organizations, including 11 African American churches. Volunteers in teams felt prepared to implement many aspects of supportive care such as practical support (32%) or help with cancer or palliative care resources (43%). People with serious illness requested help with practical, emotional, spiritual, and quality of life needs; however, they rarely wanted advocacy (3%) or cancer or palliative care resources (5%) from support teams. Volunteers had difficulty limiting outreach to people with advanced cancer due to medical privacy concerns and awareness that others could benefit. Support teams are a promising model of peer support for African Americans facing advanced cancer and serious illness, with reach, adoption, and implementation superior to the lay advisor model. This formative initial evaluation provides evidence for feasibility and acceptance. Further research should examine the efficacy and potential for maintenance of this intervention.

  16. Mathematical Constraints on the Use of Transmission Line Models for Simulating Initial Breakdown Pulses in Lightning Discharges

    Science.gov (United States)

    da Silva, C. L.; Merrill, R. A.; Pasko, V. P.

    2015-12-01

    A significant portion of the in-cloud lightning development is observed as a series of initial breakdown pulses (IBPs) that are characterized by an abrupt change in the electric field at a remote sensor. Recent experimental and theoretical studies have attributed this process to the stepwise elongation of an initial lightning leader inside the thunderstorm [da Silva and Pasko, JGR, 120, 4989-5009, 2015, and references therein]. Attempts to visually observe these events are hampered due to the fact that clouds are opaque to optical radiation. Due to this reason, throughout the last decade, a number of researchers have used the so-called transmission line models (also commonly referred to as engineering models), widely employed for return stroke simulations, to simulate the waveshapes of IBPs, and also of narrow bipolar events. The transmission line (TL) model approach is to prescribe the source current dynamics in a certain manner to match the measured E-field change waveform, with the purpose of retrieving key information about the source, such as its height, peak current, size, speed of charge motion, etc. Although the TL matching method is not necessarily physics-driven, the estimated source characteristics can give insights on the dominant length- and time-scales, as well as, on the energetics of the source. This contributes to better understanding of the environment where the onset and early stages of lightning development takes place.In the present work, we use numerical modeling to constrain the number of source parameters that can be confidently inferred from the observed far-field IBP waveforms. We compare different modified TL models (i.e., with different attenuation behaviors) to show that they tend to produce similar waveforms in conditions where the channel is short. We also demonstrate that it is impossible to simultaneously retrieve the speed of source current propagation and channel length from an observed IBP waveform, in contrast to what has been

  17. LPA signaling initiates schizophrenia-like brain and behavioral changes in a mouse model of prenatal brain hemorrhage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mirendil, H; Thomas, E A; De Loera, C; Okada, K; Inomata, Y; Chun, J

    2015-04-07

    Genetic, environmental and neurodevelopmental factors are thought to underlie the onset of neuropsychiatric disorders such as schizophrenia. How these risk factors collectively contribute to pathology is unclear. Here, we present a mouse model of prenatal intracerebral hemorrhage--an identified risk factor for schizophrenia--using a serum-exposure paradigm. This model exhibits behavioral, neurochemical and schizophrenia-related gene expression alterations in adult females. Behavioral alterations in amphetamine-induced locomotion, prepulse inhibition, thigmotaxis and social interaction--in addition to increases in tyrosine hydroxylase-positive dopaminergic cells in the substantia nigra and ventral tegmental area and decreases in parvalbumin-positive cells in the prefrontal cortex--were induced upon prenatal serum exposure. Lysophosphatidic acid (LPA), a lipid component of serum, was identified as a key molecular initiator of schizophrenia-like sequelae induced by serum. Prenatal exposure to LPA alone phenocopied many of the schizophrenia-like alterations seen in the serum model, whereas pretreatment with an antagonist against the LPA receptor subtype LPA1 prevented many of the behavioral and neurochemical alterations. In addition, both prenatal serum and LPA exposure altered the expression of many genes and pathways related to schizophrenia, including the expression of Grin2b, Slc17a7 and Grid1. These findings demonstrate that aberrant LPA receptor signaling associated with fetal brain hemorrhage may contribute to the development of some neuropsychiatric disorders.

  18. Observations and model calculations of B747 engine exhaust products at cruise altitude and inferred initial OH emissions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tremmel, H.G.; Schlager, H.; Konopka, P.; Schulte, P. [Deutsche Forschungsanstalt fuer Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR), Wessling (Germany). Inst. fuer Physik der Atmosphaere; Arnold, F.; Klemm, M.; Droste-Franke, B. [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Kernphysik, Heidelberg (Germany)

    1997-06-01

    NO{sub y} (NO, HNO{sub 2} and HNO{sub 3}) exhaust emissions in the near-field plume of two B747 jet airliners cruising in the upper troposphere were measured in situ using the DLR Falcon research aircraft. In addition CO{sub 2} was measured providing exhaust plume dilution rates for the species. The observations were used to estimate the initial OH concentration and NO{sub 2}/NO{sub x} ratio at the engine exit and the combustor exit by back calculations using a chemistry box model. From the two different plume events, and using two different model simulation modes in each case, we inferred OH emission indices EI(OH) = 0.32-0.39 g/kg fuel (OH{sub 0} = 9-14.4 ppmv) and (NO{sub 2}/NO{sub x}){sub 0} = 0.12-0.17. Furthermore, our results indicate that the chemistry of the exhaust species during the short period between the combustion chamber exit and the engine exit must be considered, because OH is already consumed to a great extent in this engine section, due to conversion to HNO{sub 2} and HNO{sub 3}. For the engines discussed here, the modeled OH concentration between combustor exit und engine exit decreases by a factor of about 350, leading to OH concentrations of 1-2.10{sup 12} molec/cm{sup 3} at the engine exit. (orig.) 45 refs.

  19. Hydrological modelling for flood forecasting: Calibrating the post-fire initial conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papathanasiou, C.; Makropoulos, C.; Mimikou, M.

    2015-10-01

    Floods and forest fires are two of the most devastating natural hazards with severe socioeconomic, environmental as well as aesthetic impacts on the affected areas. Traditionally, these hazards are examined from different perspectives and are thus investigated through different, independent systems, overlooking the fact that they are tightly interrelated phenomena. In fact, the same flood event is more severe, i.e. associated with increased runoff discharge and peak flow and decreased time to peak, if it occurs over a burnt area than that occurring over a land not affected by fire. Mediterranean periurban areas, where forests covered with flammable vegetation coexist with agricultural land and urban zones, are typical areas particularly prone to the combined impact of floods and forest fires. Hence, the accurate assessment and effective management of post-fire flood risk becomes an issue of priority. The research presented in this paper aims to develop a robust methodological framework, using state of art tools and modern technologies to support the estimation of the change in time of five representative hydrological parameters for post-fire conditions. The proposed methodology considers both longer- and short-term initial conditions in order to assess the dynamic evolution of the selected parameters. The research focuses on typical Mediterranean periurban areas that are subjected to both hazards and concludes with a set of equations that associate post-fire and pre-fire conditions for five Fire Severity (FS) classes and three soil moisture states. The methodology has been tested for several flood events on the Rafina catchment, a periurban catchment in Eastern Attica (Greece). In order to validate the methodology, simulated hydrographs were produced and compared against available observed data. Results indicate a close convergence of observed and simulated flows. The proposed methodology is particularly flexible and thus easily adaptable to catchments with similar

  20. Variational Effect and Anharmonic Torsion on Kinetic Modeling for Initiation Reaction of Dimethyl Ether Combustion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guan, Yulei; Gao, Jing; Song, Yiming; Li, Yang; Ma, Haixia; Song, Jirong

    2017-02-09

    The reaction of dimethyl ether (DME) with molecular oxygen has been considered to be the dominant initiation pathway for DME combustion compared to the C-O bond fission. This work presents a detailed mechanism and kinetics investigation for the O2 + DME reaction with theoretical approaches. Using the CCSD(T)/6-311+G(2df,2pd) potential energy surface with the M06-2X/MG3S gradient, Hessian, and geometries, rate constants are evaluated by multistructural canonical variational transition-state theory (MS-CVT) including contributions from hindered rotation and multidimensional tunneling over the temperature range 200-2800 K. The CCSD(T) and QCISD(T) with 6-311+G(2df,2pd) calculations predict a barrier of 190-194 kJ mol(-1) for the O2 + DME reaction based on the optimized structures at various levels. It is proposed that there exists a weakly interacting adducts on the product side with subsequent dissociation to the separate HO2 and CH3OCH2 radicals. Torsions in transition state are found to be significantly coupled to generate four conformations whose contributions do influence the rate constant predictions. Variational effects are observed to be significant at high temperatures, while tunneling effect quickly becomes insignificant with temperature. Finally, four-parameter Arrhenius expression 9.14 × 10(13)(T/300)(-3.15) exp[-184.52(T + 110.23)/(T(2) + 110.23(2))] cm(3) mol(-1) s(-1) describes the temperature dependence of MS-CVT rate constants with small-curvature tunneling correction.

  1. Comparison of different material models of articular cartilage in 3D computational modeling of the knee: Data from the Osteoarthritis Initiative (OAI).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klets, Olesya; Mononen, Mika E; Tanska, Petri; Nieminen, Miika T; Korhonen, Rami K; Saarakkala, Simo

    2016-12-08

    The intricate properties of articular cartilage and the complexity of the loading environment are some of the key challenges in developing models for biomechanical analysis of the knee joint. Fibril-reinforced poroelastic (FRPE) material models have been reported to accurately capture characteristic responses of cartilage during dynamic and static loadings. However, high computational and time costs associated with such advanced models limit applicability of FRPE models when multiple subjects need to be analyzed. If choosing simpler material models, it is important to show that they can still produce truthful predictions. Therefore, the aim of this study was to compare depth-dependent maximum principal stresses and strains within articular cartilage in the 3D knee joint between FRPE material models and simpler isotropic elastic (IE), isotropic poroelastic (IPE) and transversely isotropic poroelastic (TIPE) material models during simulated gait cycle. When cartilage-cartilage contact pressures were matched between the models (15% allowed difference), maximum principal stresses in the IE, IPE and TIPE models were substantially lower than those in the FRPE model (by more than 50%, TIPE model being closest to the FRPE model), and stresses occurred only in compression in the IE model. Additional simulations were performed to find material parameters for the TIPE model (due to its anisotropic nature) that would yield maximum principal stresses similar to the FRPE model. The modified homogeneous TIPE model was in a better agreement with the homogeneous FRPE model, and the average and maximum differences in maximum principal stresses throughout the depth of cartilage were 7% and 9%, respectively, in the lateral compartment and 9% and 11% in the medial compartment. This study revealed that it is possible to match simultaneously maximum principal stresses and strains of cartilage between non-fibril-reinforced and fibril-reinforced knee joint models during gait. Depending on

  2. Plant functional type classification for Earth System Models: results from the European Space Agency's Land Cover Climate Change Initiative

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Poulter

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Global land cover is a key variable in the earth system with feedbacks on climate, biodiversity and natural resources. However, global land-cover datasets presently fall short of user needs in providing detailed spatial and thematic information that is consistently mapped over time and easily transferable to the requirements of earth system models. In 2009, the European Space Agency launched the Climate Change Initiative (CCI, with land cover (LC_CCI as one of thirteen Essential Climate Variables targeted for research development. The LC_CCI was implemented in three phases, first responding to a survey of user needs, then developing a global, moderate resolution, land-cover dataset for three time periods, or epochs, 2000, 2005, and 2010, and the last phase resulting in a user-tool for converting land cover to plant functional type equivalents. Here we present the results of the LC_CCI project with a focus on the mapping approach used to convert the United Nations Land Cover Classification System to plant functional types (PFT. The translation was performed as part of consultative process among map producers and users and resulted in an open-source conversion tool. A comparison with existing PFT maps used by three-earth system modeling teams shows significant differences between the LC_CCI PFT dataset and those currently used in earth system models with likely consequences for modeling terrestrial biogeochemistry and land–atmosphere interactions. The LC_CCI tool is flexible for users to modify land cover to PFT conversions and will evolve as Phase 2 of the European Space Agency CCI program continues.

  3. Modifying the Soil and Water Assessment Tool to simulate cropland carbon flux: model development and initial evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xuesong; Izaurralde, R César; Arnold, Jeffrey G; Williams, Jimmy R; Srinivasan, Raghavan

    2013-10-01

    Climate change is one of the most compelling modern issues and has important implications for almost every aspect of natural and human systems. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model has been applied worldwide to support sustainable land and water management in a changing climate. However, the inadequacies of the existing carbon algorithm in SWAT limit its application in assessing impacts of human activities on CO2 emission, one important source of greenhouse gasses (GHGs) that traps heat in the earth system and results in global warming. In this research, we incorporate a revised version of the CENTURY carbon model into SWAT to describe dynamics of soil organic matter (SOM)-residue and simulate land-atmosphere carbon exchange. We test this new SWAT-C model with daily eddy covariance (EC) observations of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and evapotranspiration (ET) and annual crop yield at six sites across the U.S. Midwest. Results show that SWAT-C simulates well multi-year average NEE and ET across the spatially distributed sites and capture the majority of temporal variation of these two variables at a daily time scale at each site. Our analyses also reveal that performance of SWAT-C is influenced by multiple factors, such as crop management practices (irrigated vs. rainfed), completeness and accuracy of input data, crop species, and initialization of state variables. Overall, the new SWAT-C demonstrates favorable performance for simulating land-atmosphere carbon exchange across agricultural sites with different soils, climate, and management practices. SWAT-C is expected to serve as a useful tool for including carbon flux into consideration in sustainable watershed management under a changing climate. We also note that extensive assessment of SWAT-C with field observations is required for further improving the model and understanding potential uncertainties of applying it across large regions with complex landscapes.

  4. Expansion of the National Salt Reduction Initiative: A Mathematical Model of Benefits and Risks of Population-Level Sodium Reduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Sung Eun; Brandeau, Margaret L; Basu, Sanjay

    2016-01-01

    The National Salt Reduction Initiative, in which food producers agree to lower sodium to levels deemed feasible for different foods, is expected to significantly reduce sodium intake if expanded to a large sector of food manufacturers. Given recent data on the relationship between sodium intake, hypertension, and associated cardiovascular disease at a population level, we sought to examine risks and benefits of the program. To estimate the impact of further expanding the initiative on hypertension, myocardial infarction (MI) and stroke incidence, and related mortality, given food consumption patterns across the United States, we developed and validated a stochastic microsimulation model of hypertension, MI, and stroke morbidity and mortality, using data from food producers on sodium reduction among foods, linked to 24-hour dietary recalls, blood pressure, and cardiovascular histories from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Expansion of the initiative to ensure all restaurants and manufacturers reach agreed-upon sodium targets would be expected to avert from 0.9 to 3.0 MIs (a 1.6%-5.4% reduction) and 0.5 to 2.8 strokes (a 1.1%-6.2% reduction) per 10,000 Americans per year over the next decade, after incorporating consumption patterns and variations in the effect of sodium reduction on blood pressure among different demographic groups. Even high levels of consumer addition of table salt or substitution among food categories would be unlikely to neutralize this benefit. However, if recent epidemiological associations between very low sodium and increased mortality are causal, then older women may be at risk of increased mortality from excessively low sodium intake. An expanded National Salt Reduction Initiative is likely to significantly reduce hypertension and hypertension-related cardiovascular morbidity but may be accompanied by potential risks to older women. © The Author(s) 2015.

  5. The social paediatrics initiative: a RICHER model of primary health care for at risk children and their families

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wong Sabrina T

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The Responsive Interdisciplinary Child-Community Health Education and Research (RICHER initiative is an intersectoral and interdisciplinary community outreach primary health care (PHC model. It is being undertaken in partnership with community based organizations in order to address identified gaps in the continuum of health services delivery for ‘at risk’ children and their families. As part of a larger study, this paper reports on whether the RICHER initiative is associated with increased: 1 access to health care for children and families with multiple forms of disadvantage and 2 patient-reported empowerment. This study provides the first examination of a model of delivering PHC, using a Social Paediatrics approach. Methods This was a mixed-methods study, using quantitative and qualitative approaches; it was undertaken in partnership with the community, both organizations and individual providers. Descriptive statistics, including logistic regression of patient survey data (n=86 and thematic analyses of patient interview data (n=7 were analyzed to examine the association between patient experiences with the RICHER initiative and parent-reported empowerment. Results Respondents found communication with the provider clear, that the provider explained any test results in a way they could understand, and that the provider was compassionate and respectful. Analysis of the survey and in-depth interview data provide evidence that interpersonal communication, particularly the provider’s interpersonal style (e.g., being treated as an equal, was very important. Even after controlling for parents’ education and ethnicity, the provider’s interpersonal style remained positively associated with parent-reported empowerment (p Conclusions This model of PHC delivery is unique in its purposeful and required partnerships between health care providers and community members. This study provides beginning evidence that RICHER can

  6. Improving calibration of two key parameters in Hydrologic Engineering Center hydrologic modelling system, and analysing the influence of initial loss on flood peak flows.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Musheng; Chen, Xingwei; Chen, Ying; Yao, Huaxia

    2013-01-01

    Parameter calibration is a key and difficult issue for a hydrological model. Taking the Jinjiang Xixi watershed of south-east China as the study area, we proposed methods to improve the calibration of two very sensitive parameters, Muskingum K and initial loss, in the Hydrologic Engineering Center hydrologic modelling system (HEC-HMS) model. Twenty-three rainstorm flood events occurring from 1972 to 1977 were used to calibrate the model using a trial-and-error approach, and a relationship between initial loss and initial discharge for these flood events was established; seven rainstorm events occurring from 1978 to 1979 were used to validate the two parameters. The influence of initial loss change on different return-period floods was evaluated. A fixed Muskingum K value, which was calibrated by assuming a flow wave velocity at 3 m/s, could be used to simulate a flood hydrograph, and the empirical power-function relationship between initial loss and initial discharge made the model more applicable for flood forecasting. The influence of initial loss on peak floods was significant but not identical for different flood levels, and the change rate of peak floods caused by the same initial loss change was more remarkable when the return period increased.

  7. A situated-Information Motivation Behavioral Skills Model of Care Initiation and Maintenance (sIMB-CIM): an IMB model based approach to understanding and intervening in engagement in care for chronic medical conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rivet Amico, K

    2011-10-01

    A sizable portion of adults living with chronic medical conditions (CMCs) delay initiation of care or maintain it inconsistently, which has tremendous personal and public costs. However, few explanatory models with high yield for intervention development and implementation have been proposed to date that would help to characterize and support care use for CMCs. A situated Information, Motivation, Behavioral Skills model of Care Initiation and Maintenance (sIMB-CIM) is presented here as an application of the IMB model to medical care use for CMCs. An example of a sIMB model for characterizing and intervening to support maintenance in HIV-care is provided.

  8. Examining the influence of meteorological simulations forced by different initial and boundary conditions in volcanic ash dispersion modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mulena, Gabriela C.; Allende, David G.; Puliafito, Salvador E.; Lakkis, Susan G.; Cremades, Pablo G.; Ulke, Ana G.

    2016-07-01

    The performance of the combination of the FALL3D ash dispersion model with the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) meteorological model in the southern cone of South America under two initial and boundary conditions was evaluated. ERA-Interim and NCEP-GFS datasets were used as dynamic conditions by WRF to simulate meteorological fields for FALL3D. As a study case, we used the eruption of the Puyehue-Cordón Caulle Volcanic Complex occurred in Chile in June 2011. The simulated meteorological results were compared with the horizontal wind direction, meridional and zonal wind components, air and dew point temperatures of 7 radio sounding stations using a set of error indicators. In addition, the ash mass load simulated by FALL3D for a day of maximum dispersion of volcanic ash was evaluated using the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data, on which the Prata algorithm was applied. As well as this, the WRF-dominant physical processes with both dynamic conditions were analyzed for that same date. Meteorological results indicated that the simulation performed with WRF and NCEP-GFS shows the lowest errors at levels between 925 and 300 hPa. Ash dispersion simulated with FALL3D and WRF in both dynamic conditions shows a different perfomance, which from the synoptic and dynamic viewpoint can be explained for the result of wind intensity and geopotential height. Moreover, WRF intiliazed with NCEP-GFS and FALL3D has a higher degree of concordance with the MODIS image. Based on the analysis and results, it was concluded that for the southern cone of South America, 1) it was not trivial for the simulation of volcanic ash dispersion to use one dynamic condition or another in WRF; 2) in that sense, meteorological variables that influenced the differences in volcanic ash dispersion were horizontal wind intensity and direction and geopotential heights; 3) the system generated from the combination of the WRF model initialized with NCEP-GFS and the FALL3D dispersion

  9. Initial hydraulic heads for the transient ground-water flow model, Death Valley regional ground-water flow system, Nevada and California

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — This digital data set defines the hydraulic-head values in 16 model layers used to initiate the transient simulation of the Death Valley regional ground-water flow...

  10. Drugs for Neglected Diseases initiative model of drug development for neglected diseases: current status and future challenges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ioset, Jean-Robert; Chang, Shing

    2011-09-01

    The Drugs for Neglected Diseases initiative (DNDi) is a patients' needs-driven organization committed to the development of new treatments for neglected diseases. Created in 2003, DNDi has delivered four improved treatments for malaria, sleeping sickness and visceral leishmaniasis. A main DNDi challenge is to build a solid R&D portfolio for neglected diseases and to deliver preclinical candidates in a timely manner using an original model based on partnership. To address this challenge DNDi has remodeled its discovery activities from a project-based academic-bound network to a fully integrated process-oriented platform in close collaboration with pharmaceutical companies. This discovery platform relies on dedicated screening capacity and lead-optimization consortia supported by a pragmatic, structured and pharmaceutical-focused compound sourcing strategy.

  11. Model and experiences of initiating collaboration with traditional healers in validation of ethnomedicines for HIV/AIDS in Namibia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chinsembu Kazhila C

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Many people with Human Immunodeficiency Virus/Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome (HIV/AIDS in Namibia have access to antiretroviral drugs but some still use traditional medicines to treat opportunistic infections and offset side-effects from antiretroviral medication. Namibia has a rich biodiversity of indigenous plants that could contain novel anti-HIV agents. However, such medicinal plants have not been identified and properly documented. Various ethnomedicines used to treat HIV/AIDS opportunistic infections have not been scientifically validated for safety and efficacy. These limitations are mostly attributable to the lack of collaboration between biomedical scientists and traditional healers. This paper presents a five-step contextual model for initiating collaboration with Namibian traditional healers in order that candidate plants that may contain novel anti-HIV agents are identified, and traditional medicines used to treat HIV/AIDS opportunistic infections are subjected to scientific validation. The model includes key structures and processes used to initiate collaboration with traditional healers in Namibia; namely, the National Biosciences Forum, a steering committee with the University of Namibia (UNAM as the focal point, a study tour to Zambia and South Africa where other collaborative frameworks were examined, commemorations of the African Traditional Medicine Day (ATMD, and consultations with stakeholders in north-eastern Namibia. Experiences from these structures and processes are discussed. All traditional healers in north-eastern Namibia were willing to collaborate with UNAM in order that their traditional medicines could be subjected to scientific validation. The current study provides a framework for future collaboration with traditional healers and the selection of candidate anti-HIV medicinal plants and ethnomedicines for scientific testing in Namibia.

  12. Model and experiences of initiating collaboration with traditional healers in validation of ethnomedicines for HIV/AIDS in Namibia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chinsembu, Kazhila C

    2009-10-23

    Many people with Human Immunodeficiency Virus/Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome (HIV/AIDS) in Namibia have access to antiretroviral drugs but some still use traditional medicines to treat opportunistic infections and offset side-effects from antiretroviral medication. Namibia has a rich biodiversity of indigenous plants that could contain novel anti-HIV agents. However, such medicinal plants have not been identified and properly documented. Various ethnomedicines used to treat HIV/AIDS opportunistic infections have not been scientifically validated for safety and efficacy. These limitations are mostly attributable to the lack of collaboration between biomedical scientists and traditional healers. This paper presents a five-step contextual model for initiating collaboration with Namibian traditional healers in order that candidate plants that may contain novel anti-HIV agents are identified, and traditional medicines used to treat HIV/AIDS opportunistic infections are subjected to scientific validation. The model includes key structures and processes used to initiate collaboration with traditional healers in Namibia; namely, the National Biosciences Forum, a steering committee with the University of Namibia (UNAM) as the focal point, a study tour to Zambia and South Africa where other collaborative frameworks were examined, commemorations of the African Traditional Medicine Day (ATMD), and consultations with stakeholders in north-eastern Namibia. Experiences from these structures and processes are discussed. All traditional healers in north-eastern Namibia were willing to collaborate with UNAM in order that their traditional medicines could be subjected to scientific validation. The current study provides a framework for future collaboration with traditional healers and the selection of candidate anti-HIV medicinal plants and ethnomedicines for scientific testing in Namibia.

  13. The initial dispersal and radiative forcing of a Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude super volcano: a model study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Timmreck

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available The chemistry climate model MAECHAM4/ CHEM with interactive and prognostic volcanic aerosol and ozone was used to study the initial dispersal and radiative forcing of a possible Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude super eruption. Tropospheric climate anomalies are not analysed since sea surface temperatures are kept fixed. Our experiments show that the global dispersal of a super eruption located at Yellowstone, Wy. is strongly dependent on the season of the eruption. In Northern Hemisphere summer the volcanic cloud is transported westward and preferentially southward, while in Northern Hemisphere winter the cloud is transported eastward and more northward compared to the summer case. Aerosol induced heating leads to a more global spreading with a pronounced cross equatorial transport. For a summer eruption aerosol is transported much further to the Southern Hemisphere than for a winter eruption. In contrast to Pinatubo case studies, strong cooling tendencies appear with maximum peak values of less than −1.6 K/day three months after the eruption in the upper tropical stratosphere. This strong cooling effect weakens with decreasing aerosol density over time and initially prevents the aerosol laden air from further active rising. All-sky net radiative flux changes of less than −32 W/m2 at the surface are about a factor of 6 larger than for the Pinatubo eruption. Large positive flux anomalies of more than 16 W/m2 are found in the first months in the tropics and sub tropics. These strong forcings call for a fully coupled ocean/atmosphere/chemistry model to study climate sensitivity to such a super-eruption.

  14. Projected impact of a sodium consumption reduction initiative in Argentina: an analysis from the CVD policy model--Argentina.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Konfino, Jonatan; Mekonnen, Tekeshe A; Coxson, Pamela G; Ferrante, Daniel; Bibbins-Domingo, Kirsten

    2013-01-01

    Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death in adults in Argentina. Sodium reduction policies targeting processed foods were implemented in 2011 in Argentina, but the impact has not been evaluated. The aims of this study are to use Argentina-specific data on sodium excretion and project the impact of Argentina's sodium reduction policies under two scenarios - the 2-year intervention currently being undertaken or a more persistent 10 year sodium reduction strategy. We used Argentina-specific data on sodium excretion by sex and projected the impact of the current strategy on sodium consumption and blood pressure decrease. We assessed the projected impact of sodium reduction policies on CVD using the Cardiovascular Disease (CVD) Policy Model, adapted to Argentina, modeling two alternative policy scenarios over the next decade. Our study finds that the initiative to reduce sodium consumption currently in place in Argentina will have substantial impact on CVD over the next 10 years. Under the current proposed policy of 2-year sodium reduction, the mean sodium consumption is projected to decrease by 319-387 mg/day. This decrease is expected to translate into an absolute reduction of systolic blood pressure from 0.93 mmHg to 1.81 mmHg. This would avert about 19,000 all-cause mortality, 13,000 total myocardial infarctions, and 10,000 total strokes over the next decade. A more persistent sodium reduction strategy would yield even greater CVD benefits. The impact of the Argentinean initiative would be effective in substantially reducing mortality and morbidity from CVD. This paper provides evidence-based support to continue implementing strategies to reduce sodium consumption at a population level.

  15. Projected Impact of a Sodium Consumption Reduction Initiative in Argentina: An Analysis from the CVD Policy Model – Argentina

    Science.gov (United States)

    Konfino, Jonatan; Mekonnen, Tekeshe A.; Coxson, Pamela G.; Ferrante, Daniel; Bibbins-Domingo, Kirsten

    2013-01-01

    Background Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death in adults in Argentina. Sodium reduction policies targeting processed foods were implemented in 2011 in Argentina, but the impact has not been evaluated. The aims of this study are to use Argentina-specific data on sodium excretion and project the impact of Argentina’s sodium reduction policies under two scenarios - the 2-year intervention currently being undertaken or a more persistent 10 year sodium reduction strategy. Methods We used Argentina-specific data on sodium excretion by sex and projected the impact of the current strategy on sodium consumption and blood pressure decrease. We assessed the projected impact of sodium reduction policies on CVD using the Cardiovascular Disease (CVD) Policy Model, adapted to Argentina, modeling two alternative policy scenarios over the next decade. Results Our study finds that the initiative to reduce sodium consumption currently in place in Argentina will have substantial impact on CVD over the next 10 years. Under the current proposed policy of 2-year sodium reduction, the mean sodium consumption is projected to decrease by 319–387 mg/day. This decrease is expected to translate into an absolute reduction of systolic blood pressure from 0.93 mmHg to 1.81 mmHg. This would avert about 19,000 all-cause mortality, 13,000 total myocardial infarctions, and 10,000 total strokes over the next decade. A more persistent sodium reduction strategy would yield even greater CVD benefits. Conclusion The impact of the Argentinean initiative would be effective in substantially reducing mortality and morbidity from CVD. This paper provides evidence-based support to continue implementing strategies to reduce sodium consumption at a population level. PMID:24040085

  16. Robust Initial Wetness Condition Framework of an Event-Based Rainfall–Runoff Model Using Remotely Sensed Soil Moisture

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wooyeon Sunwoo

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Runoff prediction in limited-data areas is vital for hydrological applications, such as the design of infrastructure and flood defenses, runoff forecasting, and water management. Rainfall–runoff models may be useful for simulation of runoff generation, particularly event-based models, which offer a practical modeling scheme because of their simplicity. However, there is a need to reduce the uncertainties related to the estimation of the initial wetness condition (IWC prior to a rainfall event. Soil moisture is one of the most important variables in rainfall–runoff modeling, and remotely sensed soil moisture is recognized as an effective way to improve the accuracy of runoff prediction. In this study, the IWC was evaluated based on remotely sensed soil moisture by using the Soil Conservation Service-Curve Number (SCS-CN method, which is one of the representative event-based models used for reducing the uncertainty of runoff prediction. Four proxy variables for the IWC were determined from the measurements of total rainfall depth (API5, ground-based soil moisture (SSMinsitu, remotely sensed surface soil moisture (SSM, and soil water index (SWI provided by the advanced scatterometer (ASCAT. To obtain a robust IWC framework, this study consists of two main parts: the validation of remotely sensed soil moisture, and the evaluation of runoff prediction using four proxy variables with a set of rainfall–runoff events in the East Asian monsoon region. The results showed an acceptable agreement between remotely sensed soil moisture (SSM and SWI and ground based soil moisture data (SSMinsitu. In the proxy variable analysis, the SWI indicated the optimal value among the proposed proxy variables. In the runoff prediction analysis considering various infiltration conditions, the SSM and SWI proxy variables significantly reduced the runoff prediction error as compared with API5 by 60% and 66%, respectively. Moreover, the proposed IWC framework with

  17. How will precipitation change in extratropical cyclones as the planet warms? Insights from a large initial condition climate model ensemble

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yettella, Vineel; Kay, Jennifer E.

    2017-09-01

    The extratropical precipitation response to global warming is investigated within a 30-member initial condition climate model ensemble. As in observations, modeled cyclonic precipitation contributes a large fraction of extratropical precipitation, especially over the ocean and in the winter hemisphere. When compared to present day, the ensemble projects increased cyclone-associated precipitation under twenty-first century business-as-usual greenhouse gas forcing. While the cyclone-associated precipitation response is weaker in the near-future (2016-2035) than in the far-future (2081-2100), both future periods have similar patterns of response. Though cyclone frequency changes are important regionally, most of the increased cyclone-associated precipitation results from increased within-cyclone precipitation. Consistent with this result, cyclone-centric composites show statistically significant precipitation increases in all cyclone sectors. Decomposition into thermodynamic (mean cyclone water vapor path) and dynamic (mean cyclone wind speed) contributions shows that thermodynamics explains 92 and 95% of the near-future and far-future within-cyclone precipitation increases respectively. Surprisingly, the influence of dynamics on future cyclonic precipitation changes is negligible. In addition, the forced response exceeds internal variability in both future time periods. Overall, this work suggests that future cyclonic precipitation changes will result primarily from increased moisture availability in a warmer world, with secondary contributions from changes in cyclone frequency and cyclone dynamics.

  18. Technical Report Series on Global Modeling and Data Assimilation, Volume 43. MERRA-2; Initial Evaluation of the Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koster, Randal D. (Editor); Bosilovich, Michael G.; Akella, Santha; Lawrence, Coy; Cullather, Richard; Draper, Clara; Gelaro, Ronald; Kovach, Robin; Liu, Qing; Molod, Andrea; Norris, Peter; Wargan, Krzysztof; Chao, Winston; Reichle, Rolf; Takacs, Lawrence; Todling, Ricardo; Vikhliaev, Yury; Bloom, Steve; Collow, Allison; Partyka, Gary; Labow, Gordon; Pawson, Steven; Reale, Oreste; Schubert, Siegfried; Suarez, Max

    2015-01-01

    The years since the introduction of MERRA have seen numerous advances in the GEOS-5 Data Assimilation System as well as a substantial decrease in the number of observations that can be assimilated into the MERRA system. To allow continued data processing into the future, and to take advantage of several important innovations that could improve system performance, a decision was made to produce MERRA-2, an updated retrospective analysis of the full modern satellite era. One of the many advances in MERRA-2 is a constraint on the global dry mass balance; this allows the global changes in water by the analysis increment to be near zero, thereby minimizing abrupt global interannual variations due to changes in the observing system. In addition, MERRA-2 includes the assimilation of interactive aerosols into the system, a feature of the Earth system absent from previous reanalyses. Also, in an effort to improve land surface hydrology, observations-corrected precipitation forcing is used instead of model-generated precipitation. Overall, MERRA-2 takes advantage of numerous updates to the global modeling and data assimilation system. In this document, we summarize an initial evaluation of the climate in MERRA-2, from the surface to the stratosphere and from the tropics to the poles. Strengths and weaknesses of the MERRA-2 climate are accordingly emphasized.

  19. Medical education resources initiative for teens program in baltimore: A model pipeline program built on four pillars.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mains, Tyler E; Wilcox, Mark V; Wright, Scott M

    2016-01-01

    Less than 6% of U.S. medical school applicants are African-American. The lack of diversity among physicians, by race as well as other measures, confers a negative impact on the American healthcare system because underrepresented minority (URM) physicians are more likely to practice in underserved communities and deliver more equitable, culturally competent care. MERIT (Medical Education Resources Initiative for Teens) is a nonprofit organization based in Baltimore, Maryland, USA. MERIT prepares URM high school students for health careers by providing a holistic support system for seven consecutive years. The program model, which utilizes weekly Saturday sessions, summer internships, and longitudinal mentoring, is built on four foundational pillars: (1) Ignite the Fire, (2) Illuminate the Path, (3) Create the Toolkit, and (4) Sustain the Desire. Since 2011, MERIT has supported 51 students in the Baltimore City Public School System. For the past two years, 100% (n = 14) of MERIT seniors enrolled in universities, compared to only 20.2% of Baltimore City students overall. While it is too early to know whether MERIT alumni will realize their goals of becoming healthcare professionals, they are currently excelling in universities and over 75% (n = 17) are still planning to pursue graduate degrees in health-related fields. After piloting an effective program model, MERIT now has three key priorities moving forward: (1) Creating a sustainable and thriving organization, (2) increasing the number of scholars the program supports in Baltimore, and (3) expanding MERIT to other cities.

  20. How will precipitation change in extratropical cyclones as the planet warms? Insights from a large initial condition climate model ensemble

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yettella, Vineel; Kay, Jennifer E.

    2016-10-01

    The extratropical precipitation response to global warming is investigated within a 30-member initial condition climate model ensemble. As in observations, modeled cyclonic precipitation contributes a large fraction of extratropical precipitation, especially over the ocean and in the winter hemisphere. When compared to present day, the ensemble projects increased cyclone-associated precipitation under twenty-first century business-as-usual greenhouse gas forcing. While the cyclone-associated precip