WorldWideScience

Sample records for models initial models

  1. The Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    This presentation provides an overview of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII). It contains a synopsis of the three phases of AQMEII, including objectives, logistics, and timelines. It also provides a number of examples of analyses conducted through AQMEII with a particular focus on past and future analyses of deposition. The National Exposure Research Laboratory (NERL) Computational Exposure Division (CED) develops and evaluates data, decision-support tools, and models to be applied to media-specific or receptor-specific problem areas. CED uses modeling-based approaches to characterize exposures, evaluate fate and transport, and support environmental diagnostics/forensics with input from multiple data sources. It also develops media- and receptor-specific models, process models, and decision support tools for use both within and outside of EPA.

  2. The AGU Data Management Maturity Model Initiative

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bates, J. J.

    2015-12-01

    In September 2014, the AGU Board of Directors approved two initiatives to help the Earth and space sciences community address the growing challenges accompanying the increasing size and complexity of data. These initiatives are: 1) Data Science Credentialing: development of a continuing education and professional certification program to help scientists in their careers and to meet growing responsibilities and requirements around data science; and 2) Data Management Maturity (DMM) Model: development and implementation of a data management maturity model to assess process maturity against best practices, and to identify opportunities in organizational data management processes. Each of these has been organized within AGU as an Editorial Board and both Boards have held kick off meetings. The DMM model Editorial Board will recommend strategies for adapting and deploying a DMM model to the Earth and space sciences create guidance documents to assist in its implementation, and provide input on a pilot appraisal process. This presentation will provide an overview of progress to date in the DMM model Editorial Board and plans for work to be done over the upcoming year.

  3. Safeguards First Principle Initiative (SFPI) Cost Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Price, Mary Alice

    2010-01-01

    The Nevada Test Site (NTS) began operating Material Control and Accountability (MC and A) under the Safeguards First Principle Initiative (SFPI), a risk-based and cost-effective program, in December 2006. The NTS SFPI Comprehensive Assessment of Safeguards Systems (COMPASS) Model is made up of specific elements (MC and A plan, graded safeguards, accounting systems, measurements, containment, surveillance, physical inventories, shipper/receiver differences, assessments/performance tests) and various sub-elements, which are each assigned effectiveness and contribution factors that when weighted and rated reflect the health of the MC and A program. The MC and A Cost Model, using an Excel workbook, calculates budget and/or actual costs using these same elements/sub-elements resulting in total costs and effectiveness costs per element/sub-element. These calculations allow management to identify how costs are distributed for each element/sub-element. The Cost Model, as part of the SFPI program review process, enables management to determine if spending is appropriate for each element/sub-element.

  4. Safeguards First Principle Initiative (SFPI) Cost Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mary Alice Price

    2010-07-11

    The Nevada Test Site (NTS) began operating Material Control and Accountability (MC&A) under the Safeguards First Principle Initiative (SFPI), a risk-based and cost-effective program, in December 2006. The NTS SFPI Comprehensive Assessment of Safeguards Systems (COMPASS) Model is made up of specific elements (MC&A plan, graded safeguards, accounting systems, measurements, containment, surveillance, physical inventories, shipper/receiver differences, assessments/performance tests) and various sub-elements, which are each assigned effectiveness and contribution factors that when weighted and rated reflect the health of the MC&A program. The MC&A Cost Model, using an Excel workbook, calculates budget and/or actual costs using these same elements/sub-elements resulting in total costs and effectiveness costs per element/sub-element. These calculations allow management to identify how costs are distributed for each element/sub-element. The Cost Model, as part of the SFPI program review process, enables management to determine if spending is appropriate for each element/sub-element.

  5. CMAQ Involvement in Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative

    Science.gov (United States)

    Description of Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII). Different chemical transport models are applied by different groups over North America and Europe and evaluated against observations.

  6. Initiation of Setaria as a model plant

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xianmin DIAO,James SCHNABLE,Jeffrey L. BENNETZEN,Jiayang LI

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Model organisms such as Arabidopsis (Arabidopsis thaliana and rice (Oryza sativa have proven essential for efficient scientific discovery and development of new methods. With the diversity of plant lineages, some important processes such as C4 photosynthesis are not found in either Arabidopsis or rice, so new model species are needed. Due to their small diploid genomes, short life cycles, self-pollination, small adult statures and prolific seed production, domesticated foxtail millet (Setaria italica and its wild ancestor, green foxtail (S. viridis, have recently been proposed as novel model species for functional genomics of the Panicoideae, especially for study of C4 photosynthesis. This review outlines the development of these species as model organisms, and discusses current challenges and future potential of a Setaria model.

  7. Developmental prediction model for early alcohol initiation in Dutch adolescents

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Geels, L.M.; Vink, J.M.; Beijsterveldt, C.E.M. van; Bartels, M.; Boomsma, D.I.

    2013-01-01

    Objective: Multiple factors predict early alcohol initiation in teenagers. Among these are genetic risk factors, childhood behavioral problems, life events, lifestyle, and family environment. We constructed a developmental prediction model for alcohol initiation below the Dutch legal drinking age

  8. The initiative on Model Organism Proteomes (iMOP) Session

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schrimpf, Sabine P; Mering, Christian von; Bendixen, Emøke

    2012-01-01

    iMOP – the Initiative on Model Organism Proteomes – was accepted as a new HUPO initiative at the Ninth HUPO meeting in Sydney in 2010. A goal of iMOP is to integrate research groups working on a great diversity of species into a model organism community. At the Tenth HUPO meeting in Geneva...

  9. Likelihood functions for state space models with diffuse initial conditions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koopman, S.J.; Shephard, N.; de Vos, A.F.

    2010-01-01

    State space models with non-stationary processes and/or fixed regression effects require a state vector with diffuse initial conditions. Different likelihood functions can be adopted for the estimation of parameters in time-series models with diffuse initial conditions. In this article, we consider

  10. Likelihood functions for state space models with diffuse initial conditions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Francke, M.K.; Koopmans, S.J.; de Vos, A.F.

    2008-01-01

    State space models with nonstationary processes and fixed regression effects require a state vector with diffuse initial conditions. Different likelihood functions can be adopted for the estimation of parameters in time series models with diffuse initial conditions. In this paper we consider

  11. Initiating Events Modeling for On-Line Risk Monitoring Application

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Simic, Z.; Mikulicic, V.

    1998-01-01

    In order to make on-line risk monitoring application of Probabilistic Risk Assessment more complete and realistic, a special attention need to be dedicated to initiating events modeling. Two different issues are of special importance: one is how to model initiating events frequency according to current plant configuration (equipment alignment and out of service status) and operating condition (weather and various activities), and the second is how to preserve dependencies between initiating events model and rest of PRA model. First, the paper will discuss how initiating events can be treated in on-line risk monitoring application. Second, practical example of initiating events modeling in EPRI's Equipment Out of Service on-line monitoring tool will be presented. Gains from application and possible improvements will be discussed in conclusion. (author)

  12. The Global Modeling Initiative Assessment Model: Model Description, Integration and Testing of the Transport Shell

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rotman, D.A.; Tannahill, J.R.; Kinnison, D.E.; Connell, P.S.; Bergmann, D.; Proctor, D.; Rodriquez, J.M.; Lin, S.J.; Rood, R.B.; Prather, M.J.; Rasch, P.J.; Considine, D.B.; Ramaroson, R.; Kawa, S.R.

    2000-04-25

    We describe the three dimensional global stratospheric chemistry model developed under the NASA Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) to assess the possible environmental consequences from the emissions of a fleet of proposed high speed civil transport aircraft. This model was developed through a unique collaboration of the members of the GMI team. Team members provided computational modules representing various physical and chemical processes, and analysis of simulation results through extensive comparison to observation. The team members' modules were integrated within a computational framework that allowed transportability and simulations on massively parallel computers. A unique aspect of this model framework is the ability to interchange and intercompare different submodules to assess the sensitivity of numerical algorithms and model assumptions to simulation results. In this paper, we discuss the important attributes of the GMI effort, describe the GMI model computational framework and the numerical modules representing physical and chemical processes. As an application of the concept, we illustrate an analysis of the impact of advection algorithms on the dispersion of a NO{sub y}-like source in the stratosphere which mimics that of a fleet of commercial supersonic transports (High-Speed Civil Transport (HSCT)) flying between 17 and 20 kilometers.

  13. European initiatives for modeling emissions from transport

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Joumard, Robert; Hickman, A. John; Samaras, Zissis

    1998-01-01

    In Europe there have been many cooperative studies into transport emission inventories since the late 80s. These cover the scope of CORINAIR program involving experts from seven European Community laboratories addressing only road transport emissions at national level. These also include the latest...... COST 319 action bringing together about 80 active scientists from the whole of Europe and considering all modes of transport and all inventory levels. The paper briefly presents the history of the various multilateral and EC initiatives and discusses the latest in more detail, from the collection...... of the raw data to the design of the inventory tools. The paper also considers the structures and the main assumptions of the current inventory methods for the various transport modes and various areas of application, including reference to work currently in progress or planned for the near future. Topics...

  14. Constructing Realistic Szekeres Models from Initial and Final Data

    OpenAIRE

    Walters, Anthony; Hellaby, Charles

    2012-01-01

    The Szekeres family of inhomogeneous solutions, which are defined by six arbitrary metric functions, offers a wide range of possibilities for modelling cosmic structure. Here we present a model construction procedure for the quasispherical case using given data at initial and final times. Of the six arbitrary metric functions, the three which are common to both Szekeres and Lema\\^itre-Tolman models are determined by the model construction procedure of Krasinski & Hellaby. For the remaining th...

  15. Sensitivity of a Simulated Derecho Event to Model Initial Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Wei

    2014-05-01

    Since 2003, the MMM division at NCAR has been experimenting cloud-permitting scale weather forecasting using Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Over the years, we've tested different model physics, and tried different initial and boundary conditions. Not surprisingly, we found that the model's forecasts are more sensitive to the initial conditions than model physics. In 2012 real-time experiment, WRF-DART (Data Assimilation Research Testbed) at 15 km was employed to produce initial conditions for twice-a-day forecast at 3 km. On June 29, this forecast system captured one of the most destructive derecho event on record. In this presentation, we will examine forecast sensitivity to different model initial conditions, and try to understand the important features that may contribute to the success of the forecast.

  16. Modeling the outflow of liquid with initial supercritical parameters using the relaxation model for condensation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lezhnin Sergey

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The two-temperature model of the outflow from a vessel with initial supercritical parameters of medium has been realized. The model uses thermodynamic non-equilibrium relaxation approach to describe phase transitions. Based on a new asymptotic model for computing the relaxation time, the outflow of water with supercritical initial pressure and super- and subcritical temperatures has been calculated.

  17. CVISN model deployment initiative summary evaluation plan : executive summary

    Science.gov (United States)

    1998-07-01

    The purpose of the Commercial Vehicle Information Systems and Networks Model Deployment Initiative (CVISN MDI) is to demonstrate the technical and institutional feasibility, costs, and benefits of the primary Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) ...

  18. Human Cancer Models Initiative | Office of Cancer Genomics

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Human Cancer Models Initiative (HCMI) is an international consortium that is generating novel human tumor-derived culture models, which are annotated with genomic and clinical data. In an effort to advance cancer research and more fully understand how in vitro findings are related to clinical biology, HCMI-developed models and related data will be available as a community resource for cancer and other research.

  19. Dynamic crack initiation toughness : experiments and peridynamic modeling.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Foster, John T.

    2009-10-01

    This is a dissertation on research conducted studying the dynamic crack initiation toughness of a 4340 steel. Researchers have been conducting experimental testing of dynamic crack initiation toughness, K{sub Ic}, for many years, using many experimental techniques with vastly different trends in the results when reporting K{sub Ic} as a function of loading rate. The dissertation describes a novel experimental technique for measuring K{sub Ic} in metals using the Kolsky bar. The method borrows from improvements made in recent years in traditional Kolsky bar testing by using pulse shaping techniques to ensure a constant loading rate applied to the sample before crack initiation. Dynamic crack initiation measurements were reported on a 4340 steel at two different loading rates. The steel was shown to exhibit a rate dependence, with the recorded values of K{sub Ic} being much higher at the higher loading rate. Using the knowledge of this rate dependence as a motivation in attempting to model the fracture events, a viscoplastic constitutive model was implemented into a peridynamic computational mechanics code. Peridynamics is a newly developed theory in solid mechanics that replaces the classical partial differential equations of motion with integral-differential equations which do not require the existence of spatial derivatives in the displacement field. This allows for the straightforward modeling of unguided crack initiation and growth. To date, peridynamic implementations have used severely restricted constitutive models. This research represents the first implementation of a complex material model and its validation. After showing results comparing deformations to experimental Taylor anvil impact for the viscoplastic material model, a novel failure criterion is introduced to model the dynamic crack initiation toughness experiments. The failure model is based on an energy criterion and uses the K{sub Ic} values recorded experimentally as an input. The failure model

  20. The Swarm Initial Field Model for the 2014 geomagnetic field

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Nils; Hulot, Gauthier; Lesur, Vincent

    2015-01-01

    Data from the first year of ESA's Swarm constellation mission are used to derive the Swarm Initial Field Model (SIFM), a new model of the Earth's magnetic field and its time variation. In addition to the conventional magnetic field observations provided by each of the three Swarm satellites...... agreement (up to at least degree 60) with recent field models derived from CHAMP data, providing an initial validation of the quality of the Swarm magnetic measurements. Use of gradient data improves the determination of both the static field and its secular variation, with the mean misfit for East...

  1. Modeling initiation trains based on HMX and TATB

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drake, R. C.; Maisey, M.

    2017-01-01

    There will always be a requirement to reduce the size of initiation trains. However, as the size is reduced the performance characteristics can be compromised. A detailed science-based understanding of the processes (ignition and growth to detonation) which determine the performance characteristics is required to enable compact and robust initiation trains to be designed. To assess the use of numerical models in the design of initiation trains a modeling study has been undertaken, with the aim of understanding the initiation of TATB and HMX charges by a confined, surface mounted detonator. The effect of detonator diameter and detonator confinement on the formation of dead zones in the acceptor explosives has been studied. The size of dead zones can be reduced by increasing the diameter of the detonator and by increasing the impedance of the confinement. The implications for the design of initiation trains are discussed.

  2. Modeling of laser damage initiated by surface contamination

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Feit, M.D.; Rubenchik, A.M.; Faux, D.R.; Riddle, R.A.; Shapiro, A.; Eder, D.C.; Penetrante, B.M.; Milam, D.; Genin, F.Y.; Kozlowski, M.R.

    1996-11-01

    The authors are engaged in a comprehensive effort to understand and model the initiation and growth of laser damage initiated by surface contaminants. This includes, for example, the initial absorption by the contaminant, heating and plasma generation, pressure and thermal loading of the transparent substrate, and subsequent shockwave propagation, 'splashing' of molten material and possible spallation, optical propagation and scattering, and treatment of material fracture. The integration use of large radiation hydrodynamics codes, optical propagation codes and material strength codes enables a comprehensive view of the damage process The following picture of surface contaminant initiated laser damage is emerging from our simulations

  3. Constructing realistic Szekeres models from initial and final data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Walters, Anthony; Hellaby, Charles, E-mail: tony.walters@uct.ac.za, E-mail: charles.hellaby@uct.ac.za [Department of Mathematics and Applied Mathematics, University of Cape Town, Rondebosch, 7701 (South Africa)

    2012-12-01

    The Szekeres family of inhomogeneous solutions, which are defined by six arbitrary metric functions, offers a wide range of possibilities for modelling cosmic structure. Here we present a model construction procedure for the quasispherical case using given data at initial and final times. Of the six arbitrary metric functions, the three which are common to both Szekeres and Lemaître-Tolman models are determined by the model construction procedure of Krasinski and Hellaby. For the remaining three functions, which are unique to Szekeres models, we derive exact analytic expressions in terms of more physically intuitive quantities — density profiles and dipole orientation angles. Using MATLAB, we implement the model construction procedure and simulate the time evolution.

  4. Wind laws for shockless initialization. [numerical forecasting model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghil, M.; Shkoller, B.

    1976-01-01

    A system of diagnostic equations for the velocity field, or wind laws, was derived for each of a number of models of large-scale atmospheric flow. The derivation in each case is mathematically exact and does not involve any physical assumptions not already present in the prognostic equations, such as nondivergence or vanishing of derivatives of the divergence. Therefore, initial states computed by solving these diagnostic equations should be compatible with the type of motion described by the prognostic equations of the model and should not generate initialization shocks when inserted into the model. Numerical solutions of the diagnostic system corresponding to a barotropic model are exhibited. Some problems concerning the possibility of implementing such a system in operational numerical weather prediction are discussed.

  5. Stochastic Models for Chloride-Initiated Corrosion in Reinforced Concrete

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Engelund, Svend; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    Corrosion of the reinforcement in concrete structures can lead to a substantial decrease of the load-bearing capacity. One mode of corrosion initiation is when the chloride content around the reinforcement exceeds a threshold value. In the present paper a statistical model is developed by which...... the chloride content in a 1reinforced concrete structure can be predicted. The model parameters are estimated on the basis of measurements. The distribution of the time to initiation of corrosion is estimated by FORMISORM-analysis....

  6. Stochastic Models for Chloride-Initiated Corrosion in Reinforced Concrete

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Engelund, S.; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    1996-01-01

    Corrosion of the reinforcement in concrete structures can lead to a substantial decrease of the load-bearing capacity. One mode of corrosion initiation is when the chloride content around the reinforcement exceeds a threshold value. In the present paper a statistical model is developed by which...... the chloride content in a reinforced concrete structure can be predicted. The model parameters are estimated on the basis of measurements. The distribution of the time to initiation of corrosion is estimated by FORM/SORM-analysis....

  7. Stochastic modeling of pitting corrosion: A new model for initiation and growth of multiple corrosion pits

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Valor, A. [Facultad de Fisica, Universidad de La Habana, San Lazaro y L, Vedado, 10400 Havana (Cuba); Caleyo, F. [Departamento de Ingenieria, Metalurgica, IPN-ESIQIE, UPALM Edif. 7, Zacatenco, Mexico DF 07738 (Mexico)]. E-mail: fcaleyo@gmail.com; Alfonso, L. [Departamento de Ingenieria, Metalurgica, IPN-ESIQIE, UPALM Edif. 7, Zacatenco, Mexico DF 07738 (Mexico); Rivas, D. [Departamento de Ingenieria, Metalurgica, IPN-ESIQIE, UPALM Edif. 7, Zacatenco, Mexico DF 07738 (Mexico); Hallen, J.M. [Departamento de Ingenieria, Metalurgica, IPN-ESIQIE, UPALM Edif. 7, Zacatenco, Mexico DF 07738 (Mexico)

    2007-02-15

    In this work, a new stochastic model capable of simulating pitting corrosion is developed and validated. Pitting corrosion is modeled as the combination of two stochastic processes: pit initiation and pit growth. Pit generation is modeled as a nonhomogeneous Poisson process, in which induction time for pit initiation is simulated as the realization of a Weibull process. In this way, the exponential and Weibull distributions can be considered as the possible distributions for pit initiation time. Pit growth is simulated using a nonhomogeneous Markov process. Extreme value statistics is used to find the distribution of maximum pit depths resulting from the combination of the initiation and growth processes for multiple pits. The proposed model is validated using several published experiments on pitting corrosion. It is capable of reproducing the experimental observations with higher quality than the stochastic models available in the literature for pitting corrosion.

  8. Learning reliable manipulation strategies without initial physical models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christiansen, Alan D.; Mason, Matthew T.; Mitchell, Tom M.

    1990-01-01

    A description is given of a robot, possessing limited sensory and effectory capabilities but no initial model of the effects of its actions on the world, that acquires such a model through exploration, practice, and observation. By acquiring an increasingly correct model of its actions, it generates increasingly successful plans to achieve its goals. In an apparently nondeterministic world, achieving reliability requires the identification of reliable actions and a preference for using such actions. Furthermore, by selecting its training actions carefully, the robot can significantly improve its learning rate.

  9. Hindcasting to measure ice sheet model sensitivity to initial states

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Aschwanden

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Validation is a critical component of model development, yet notoriously challenging in ice sheet modeling. Here we evaluate how an ice sheet system model responds to a given forcing. We show that hindcasting, i.e. forcing a model with known or closely estimated inputs for past events to see how well the output matches observations, is a viable method of assessing model performance. By simulating the recent past of Greenland, and comparing to observations of ice thickness, ice discharge, surface speeds, mass loss and surface elevation changes for validation, we find that the short term model response is strongly influenced by the initial state. We show that the thermal and dynamical states (i.e. the distribution of internal energy and momentum can be misrepresented despite a good agreement with some observations, stressing the importance of using multiple observations. In particular we identify rates of change of spatially dense observations as preferred validation metrics. Hindcasting enables a qualitative assessment of model performance relative to observed rates of change. It thereby reduces the number of admissible initial states more rigorously than validation efforts that do not take advantage of observed rates of change.

  10. Impacts of model initialization on an integrated surface water - groundwater model

    KAUST Repository

    Ajami, Hoori

    2015-04-01

    Integrated hydrologic models characterize catchment responses by coupling the subsurface flow with land surface processes. One of the major areas of uncertainty in such models is the specification of the initial condition and its influence on subsequent simulations. A key challenge in model initialization is that it requires spatially distributed information on model states, groundwater levels and soil moisture, even when such data are not routinely available. Here, the impact of uncertainty in initial condition was explored across a 208 km2 catchment in Denmark using the ParFlow.CLM model. The initialization impact was assessed under two meteorological conditions (wet vs dry) using five depth to water table and soil moisture distributions obtained from various equilibrium states (thermal, root zone, discharge, saturated and unsaturated zone equilibrium) during the model spin-up. Each of these equilibrium states correspond to varying computation times to achieve stability in a particular aspect of the system state. Results identified particular sensitivity in modelled recharge and stream flow to the different initializations, but reduced sensitivity in modelled energy fluxes. Analysis also suggests that to simulate a year that is wetter than the spin-up period, an initialization based on discharge equilibrium is adequate to capture the direction and magnitude of surface water–groundwater exchanges. For a drier or hydrologically similar year to the spin-up period, an initialization based on groundwater equilibrium is required. Variability of monthly subsurface storage changes and discharge bias at the scale of a hydrological event show that the initialization impacts do not diminish as the simulations progress, highlighting the importance of robust and accurate initialization in capturing surface water–groundwater dynamics.

  11. Geoadditive modelling of adolescent age of sexual initiation among ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Inferences were based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques, while model selection was based on Deviance Information Criteria (DIC). Findings revealed significant spatial variations on level of adolescent sexual initiation among Nigerian women as well as a clear evidence of nonlinear effect of age.

  12. Mesoscale modelling of shock initiation in HMX-based explosives

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Swift, D. C. (Damian C.); Mulford, R. N. R. (Robert N. R.); Winter, R. E. (Ron E.); Taylor, P. (Peter); Salisbury, D. A. (Darren A.); Harris, E. J. (Ernie J.)

    2002-01-01

    Motivation: predictive capability Want to predict initiation, detonics and performance given: {sm_bullet} Variations in composition {sm_bullet} Variations in morphology {sm_bullet}Different loading conditions Previous work on PBX and ANFO: need physically-based model rather than just mechanical calibrations

  13. The Swarm Initial Field Model for the 2014 Geomagnetic Field

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olsen, Nils; Hulot, Gauthier; Lesur, Vincent; Finlay, Christopher C.; Beggan, Ciaran; Chulliat, Arnaud; Sabaka, Terence J.; Floberghagen, Rune; Friis-Christensen, Eigil; Haagmans, Roger

    2015-01-01

    Data from the first year of ESA's Swarm constellation mission are used to derive the Swarm Initial Field Model (SIFM), a new model of the Earth's magnetic field and its time variation. In addition to the conventional magnetic field observations provided by each of the three Swarm satellites, explicit advantage is taken of the constellation aspect by including east-west magnetic intensity gradient information from the lower satellite pair. Along-track differences in magnetic intensity provide further information concerning the north-south gradient. The SIFM static field shows excellent agreement (up to at least degree 60) with recent field models derived from CHAMP data, providing an initial validation of the quality of the Swarm magnetic measurements. Use of gradient data improves the determination of both the static field and its secular variation, with the mean misfit for east-west intensity differences between the lower satellite pair being only 0.12 nT.

  14. Predicting fatigue crack initiation through image-based micromechanical modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cheong, K.-S.; Smillie, Matthew J.; Knowles, David M.

    2007-01-01

    The influence of individual grain orientation on early fatigue crack initiation in a four-point bend fatigue test was investigated numerically and experimentally. The 99.99% aluminium test sample was subjected to high cycle fatigue (HCF) and the top surface microstructure within the inner span of the sample was characterized using electron-beam backscattering diffraction (EBSD). Applying a finite-element submodelling approach, the microstructure was digitally reconstructed and refined studies carried out in regions where fatigue damage was observed. The constitutive behaviour of aluminium was described by a crystal plasticity model which considers the evolution of dislocations and accumulation of edge dislocation dipoles. Using an energy-based approach to quantify fatigue damage, the model correctly predicts regions in grains where early fatigue crack initiation was observed. The tendency for fatigue cracks to initiate in these grains appears to be strongly linked to the orientations of the grains relative to the direction of loading - grains less favourably aligned with respect to the loading direction appear more susceptible to fatigue crack initiation. The limitations of this modelling approach are also highlighted and discussed, as some grains predicted to initiate cracks did not show any visible signs of fatigue cracking in the same locations during testing

  15. On specification of initial conditions in turbulence models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rollin, Bertrand [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Andrews, Malcolm J [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2010-12-01

    Recent research has shown that initial conditions have a significant influence on the evolution of a flow towards turbulence. This important finding offers a unique opportunity for turbulence control, but also raises the question of how to properly specify initial conditions in turbulence models. We study this problem in the context of the Rayleigh-Taylor instability. The Rayleigh-Taylor instability is an interfacial fluid instability that leads to turbulence and turbulent mixing. It occurs when a light fluid is accelerated in to a heavy fluid because of misalignment between density and pressure gradients. The Rayleigh-Taylor instability plays a key role in a wide variety of natural and man-made flows ranging from supernovae to the implosion phase of Inertial Confinement Fusion (ICF). Our approach consists of providing the turbulence models with a predicted profile of its key variables at the appropriate time in accordance to the initial conditions of the problem.

  16. Modelling Withdrawal and Persistence for Initial Teacher Training: Revising Tinto's Longitudinal Model of Departure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, Deborah

    2012-01-01

    This paper proposes a theoretical model to explain trainee withdrawal and persistence within higher education (HE) based initial teacher training (ITT). Within ITT, attrition and persistence are under-researched and under-theorised, thus providing the rationale for this study. Within HE more broadly, a number of models have been proposed, most…

  17. Modeling of the radionuclide release from an initially defective canister

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu, L.; Neretnieks, I.

    1999-01-01

    To investigate the effect of geochemical conditions of the repository on the release rate of radionuclides from an initially defective canister, a mathematical model is proposed. The model is based on the concept that ligands diffuse through the damage into the canister and form complexes with uranium, increasing its solubility. The complexes then diffuse out to the surroundings. Accordingly, the model combines a chemical equilibrium model for the solubility of uranium under strongly oxidizing conditions, and a transport model for the release rate of uranium. The transport model takes into account the diffusion resistance in the damage as well as in the surrounding compacted bentonite clay and the water flow in the rock. Using this model, the sensitivity of the release rate of aqueous uranium species to the concentrations of various groundwater component species, to the diffusion coefficient and to other parameters is systematically investigated. The results show that, the concentrations of carbonate, phosphate, silicate and calcium species in deep groundwaters play the most important role in determining the release rate of radionuclides. The results help identify the key diffusion coefficients that are needed to obtain more reliable estimates of the release rate

  18. Initialization of a mesoscale model with satellite derived temperature profiles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalb, Michael W.

    1986-01-01

    The abilities of rawinsonde data and Tiros-N satellite derived temperature profile data to depict mesoscale precipitation accumulation are evaluated. Four mesoscale simulations using combinations of temperature, low-level wind, and low-level wind initialization were performed with the limited area mesoscale prediction system (LAMPS) model. Comparisons of the simulations with operational LFM forecast accumulations reveal that the LAMPS model simulations provide a better depiction of the observed precipitation accumulation than the LFM forecasts, and the satellite temperature profiles produce better mesoscale precipitation accumulation forecasts than the rawinsonde temperature data.

  19. Fatigue crack initiation in crystalline materials - experimental evidence and models

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Polák, Jaroslav; Man, Jiří; Vystavěl, T.; Zouhar, Lukáš

    2007-01-01

    Roč. 345-346, - (2007), s. 379-382 ISSN 1013-9826. [International Conference on The Mechanical Behavior of Materials /10./. Busan , 27.05.2007-31.05.2007] R&D Projects: GA ČR GA106/06/1096; GA ČR GA101/07/1500 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z20410507 Keywords : fatigue * crack initiation * modeling Subject RIV: JL - Materials Fatigue, Friction Mechanics Impact factor: 0.224, year: 2005

  20. Fracture initiation associated with chemical degradation: observation and modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Byoungho Choi; Zhenwen Zhou; Chudnovsky, Alexander [Illinois Univ., Dept. of Civil and Materials Engineering (M/C 246), Chicago, IL (United States); Stivala, Salvatore S. [Stevens Inst. of Technology, Dept. of Chemistry and Chemical Biology, Hoboken, NJ (United States); Sehanobish, Kalyan; Bosnyak, Clive P. [Dow Chemical Co., Freeport, TX (United States)

    2005-01-01

    The fracture initiation in engineering thermoplastics resulting from chemical degradation is usually observed in the form of a microcrack network within a surface layer of degraded polymer exposed to a combined action of mechanical stresses and chemically aggressive environment. Degradation of polymers is usually manifested in a reduction of molecular weight, increase of crystallinity in semi crystalline polymers, increase of material density, a subtle increase in yield strength, and a dramatic reduction in toughness. An increase in material density, i.e., shrinkage of the degraded layer is constrained by adjacent unchanged material results in a buildup of tensile stress within the degraded layer and compressive stress in the adjacent unchanged material due to increasing incompatibility between the two. These stresses are an addition to preexisting manufacturing and service stresses. At a certain level of degradation, a combination of toughness reduction and increase of tensile stress result in fracture initiation. A quantitative model of the described above processes is presented in these work. For specificity, the internally pressurized plastic pipes that transport a fluid containing a chemically aggressive (oxidizing) agent is used as the model of fracture initiation. Experimental observations of material density and toughness dependence on degradation reported elsewhere are employed in the model. An equation for determination of a critical level of degradation corresponding to the offset of fracture is constructed. The critical level of degradation for fracture initiation depends on the rates of toughness deterioration and build-up of the degradation related stresses as well as on the manufacturing and service stresses. A method for evaluation of the time interval prior to fracture initiation is also formulated. (Author)

  1. Initial CGE Model Results Summary Exogenous and Endogenous Variables Tests

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Edwards, Brian Keith [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Boero, Riccardo [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Rivera, Michael Kelly [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2017-08-07

    The following discussion presents initial results of tests of the most recent version of the National Infrastructure Simulation and Analysis Center Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model developed by Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). The intent of this is to test and assess the model’s behavioral properties. The test evaluated whether the predicted impacts are reasonable from a qualitative perspective. This issue is whether the predicted change, be it an increase or decrease in other model variables, is consistent with prior economic intuition and expectations about the predicted change. One of the purposes of this effort is to determine whether model changes are needed in order to improve its behavior qualitatively and quantitatively.

  2. Action potential initiation in the hodgkin-huxley model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lucy J Colwell

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available A recent paper of B. Naundorf et al. described an intriguing negative correlation between variability of the onset potential at which an action potential occurs (the onset span and the rapidity of action potential initiation (the onset rapidity. This correlation was demonstrated in numerical simulations of the Hodgkin-Huxley model. Due to this antagonism, it is argued that Hodgkin-Huxley-type models are unable to explain action potential initiation observed in cortical neurons in vivo or in vitro. Here we apply a method from theoretical physics to derive an analytical characterization of this problem. We analytically compute the probability distribution of onset potentials and analytically derive the inverse relationship between onset span and onset rapidity. We find that the relationship between onset span and onset rapidity depends on the level of synaptic background activity. Hence we are able to elucidate the regions of parameter space for which the Hodgkin-Huxley model is able to accurately describe the behavior of this system.

  3. Subduction initiation and Obduction: insights from analog models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agard, P.; Zuo, X.; Funiciello, F.; Bellahsen, N.; Faccenna, C.; Savva, D.

    2013-12-01

    Subduction initiation and obduction are two poorly constrained geodynamic processes which are interrelated in a number of natural settings. Subduction initiation can be viewed as the result of a regional-scale change in plate convergence partitioning between the set of existing subduction (and collision or obduction) zones worldwide. Intraoceanic subduction initiation may also ultimately lead to obduction of dense oceanic "ophiolites" atop light continental plates. A classic example is the short-lived Peri-Arabic obduction, which took place along thousands of km almost synchronously (within ~5-10 myr), from Turkey to Oman, while the subduction zone beneath Eurasia became temporarily jammed. We herein present analog models designed to study both processes and more specifically (1) subduction initiation through the partitioning of deformation between two convergent zones (a preexisting and a potential one) and, as a consequence, (2) the possible development of obduction, which has so far never been modeled. These models explore the mechanisms of subduction initiation and obduction and test various triggering hypotheses (i.e., plate acceleration, slab crossing the 660 km discontinuity, ridge subduction; Agard et al., 2007). The experimental setup comprises an upper mantle modelled as a low-viscosity transparent Newtonian glucose syrup filling a rigid Plexiglas tank and high-viscosity silicone plates. Convergence is simulated by pushing on a piston at one end of the model with plate tectonics like velocities (1-10 cm/yr) onto (i) a continental margin, (ii) a weakness zone with variable resistance and dip (W), (iii) an oceanic plate - with or without a spreading ridge, (iv) a subduction zone (S) dipping away from the piston and (v) an upper active continental margin, below which the oceanic plate is being subducted at the start of the experiment (as for the Oman case). Several configurations were tested over thirty-five parametric experiments. Special emphasis was

  4. Modelling of the initial stage of the surface discharge development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gibalov, V.; Pietsch, G.

    1998-01-01

    Computer modelling of the initial stage of the surface discharge was performed by solving numerically the coupled continuity, the Poisson and Townsend ionization equations and taking into account the ionization, attachment and detachment processes. The potential distribution at the dielectric surface and at the boundaries which surround the integration region have been calculated with the charge-image method in a 3D approach. In order to eliminate numerical diffusion effects, the solution of the continuity equation was corrected using a flux correction transport routine. At the positive voltage the development of the discharge channel is determined mainly by the shape of the electrode tip. At the negative voltage the following phases of the discharge may be distinguished: the initial phase, the cathode directed streamer phase resulting in the cathode layer formation, and the propagating phase. The physical processes governing each discharge phase are described in detail. (J.U.)

  5. Boron-10 ABUNCL Prototype Models And Initial Active Testing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kouzes, Richard T.; Ely, James H.; Lintereur, Azaree T.; Siciliano, Edward R.

    2013-04-23

    The Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Safeguards and Security (NA-241) is supporting the project Coincidence Counting With Boron-Based Alternative Neutron Detection Technology at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) for the development of a 3He proportional counter alternative neutron coincidence counter. The goal of this project is to design, build and demonstrate a system based upon 10B-lined proportional tubes in a configuration typical for 3He-based coincidence counter applications. This report provides results from MCNPX model simulations and initial testing of the active mode variation of the Alternative Boron-Based Uranium Neutron Coincidence Collar (ABUNCL) design built by General Electric Reuter-Stokes. Initial experimental testing of the as-delivered passive ABUNCL was previously reported.

  6. Initializing a Mesoscale Boundary-Layer Model with Radiosonde Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berri, Guillermo J.; Bertossa, Germán

    2018-01-01

    A mesoscale boundary-layer model is used to simulate low-level regional wind fields over the La Plata River of South America, a region characterized by a strong daily cycle of land-river surface-temperature contrast and low-level circulations of sea-land breeze type. The initial and boundary conditions are defined from a limited number of local observations and the upper boundary condition is taken from the only radiosonde observations available in the region. The study considers 14 different upper boundary conditions defined from the radiosonde data at standard levels, significant levels, level of the inversion base and interpolated levels at fixed heights, all of them within the first 1500 m. The period of analysis is 1994-2008 during which eight daily observations from 13 weather stations of the region are used to validate the 24-h surface-wind forecast. The model errors are defined as the root-mean-square of relative error in wind-direction frequency distribution and mean wind speed per wind sector. Wind-direction errors are greater than wind-speed errors and show significant dispersion among the different upper boundary conditions, not present in wind speed, revealing a sensitivity to the initialization method. The wind-direction errors show a well-defined daily cycle, not evident in wind speed, with the minimum at noon and the maximum at dusk, but no systematic deterioration with time. The errors grow with the height of the upper boundary condition level, in particular wind direction, and double the errors obtained when the upper boundary condition is defined from the lower levels. The conclusion is that defining the model upper boundary condition from radiosonde data closer to the ground minimizes the low-level wind-field errors throughout the region.

  7. Multi-scale modelling of fatigue microcrack initiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu, Jia

    2013-01-01

    The thesis aims to improve the understanding and simulation of microcrack initiation induced by thermal fatigue and the induced crack network formation. The polycrystalline simulations allow the prediction of both macroscopic cyclic behavior and mean grain distributions of stress, plastic strain and number of cycles to microcrack initiation. Various aggregate meshes have been used, from the simplest ones using cubic grains up to a real 3D aggregate built thanks to many re-polishing and EBSD measurement sequences (Institut P', Poitiers). Tension-compression, cyclic shear and equi-biaxial loadings, with and without mean strain, have been considered. All the predictions are in qualitative agreement with many experimental observations obtained at various scales. The single crystal simulations allow us to predict the effect of slip localization in thin persistent slip bands (PSBs). Inside PSBs, vacancies are produced and annihilated because of cyclic dislocation interactions and may diffuse towards the surrounding matrix. This induces extrusion growth at the free surface of PSBs. Microcracking is modelled by cohesive zones located along the PSB - matrix interfaces. The predicted extrusion rates and numbers of cycles to microcrack initiation are in fair agreement with numerous experimental data concerning single and polycrystals, copper and 316L(N), under either air or inert environment. (author) [fr

  8. Evaluation of Stratospheric Transport in New 3D Models Using the Global Modeling Initiative Grading Criteria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strahan, Susan E.; Douglass, Anne R.; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    The Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) Team developed objective criteria for model evaluation in order to identify the best representation of the stratosphere. This work created a method to quantitatively and objectively discriminate between different models. In the original GMI study, 3 different meteorological data sets were used to run an offline chemistry and transport model (CTM). Observationally-based grading criteria were derived and applied to these simulations and various aspects of stratospheric transport were evaluated; grades were assigned. Here we report on the application of the GMI evaluation criteria to CTM simulations integrated with a new assimilated wind data set and a new general circulation model (GCM) wind data set. The Finite Volume Community Climate Model (FV-CCM) is a new GCM developed at Goddard which uses the NCAR CCM physics and the Lin and Rood advection scheme. The FV-Data Assimilation System (FV-DAS) is a new data assimilation system which uses the FV-CCM as its core model. One year CTM simulations of 2.5 degrees longitude by 2 degrees latitude resolution were run for each wind data set. We present the evaluation of temperature and annual transport cycles in the lower and middle stratosphere in the two new CTM simulations. We include an evaluation of high latitude transport which was not part of the original GMI criteria. Grades for the new simulations will be compared with those assigned during the original GMT evaluations and areas of improvement will be identified.

  9. Initial VHTR accident scenario classification: models and data.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vilim, R. B.; Feldman, E. E.; Pointer, W. D.; Wei, T. Y. C.; Nuclear Engineering Division

    2005-09-30

    Nuclear systems codes are being prepared for use as computational tools for conducting performance/safety analyses of the Very High Temperature Reactor. The thermal-hydraulic codes are RELAP5/ATHENA for one-dimensional systems modeling and FLUENT and/or Star-CD for three-dimensional modeling. We describe a formal qualification framework, the development of Phenomena Identification and Ranking Tables (PIRTs), the initial filtering of the experiment databases, and a preliminary screening of these codes for use in the performance/safety analyses. In the second year of this project we focused on development of PIRTS. Two events that result in maximum fuel and vessel temperatures, the Pressurized Conduction Cooldown (PCC) event and the Depressurized Conduction Cooldown (DCC) event, were selected for PIRT generation. A third event that may result in significant thermal stresses, the Load Change event, is also selected for PIRT generation. Gas reactor design experience and engineering judgment were used to identify the important phenomena in the primary system for these events. Sensitivity calculations performed with the RELAP5 code were used as an aid to rank the phenomena in order of importance with respect to the approach of plant response to safety limits. The overall code qualification methodology was illustrated by focusing on the Reactor Cavity Cooling System (RCCS). The mixed convection mode of heat transfer and pressure drop is identified as an important phenomenon for Reactor Cavity Cooling System (RCCS) operation. Scaling studies showed that the mixed convection mode is likely to occur in the RCCS air duct during normal operation and during conduction cooldown events. The RELAP5/ATHENA code was found to not adequately treat the mixed convection regime. Readying the code will require adding models for the turbulent mixed convection regime while possibly performing new experiments for the laminar mixed convection regime. Candidate correlations for the turbulent

  10. Specifying initial stress for dynamic heterogeneous earthquake source models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrews, D.J.; Barall, M.

    2011-01-01

    Dynamic rupture calculations using heterogeneous stress drop that is random and self-similar with a power-law spatial spectrum have great promise of producing realistic ground-motion predictions. We present procedures to specify initial stress for random events with a target rupture length and target magnitude. The stress function is modified in the depth dimension to account for the brittle-ductile transition at the base of the seismogenic zone. Self-similar fluctuations in stress drop are tied in this work to the long-wavelength stress variation that determines rupture length. Heterogeneous stress is related to friction levels in order to relate the model to physical concepts. In a variant of the model, there are high-stress asperities with low background stress. This procedure has a number of advantages: (1) rupture stops naturally, not at artificial barriers; (2) the amplitude of short-wavelength fluctuations of stress drop is not arbitrary: the spectrum is fixed to the long-wavelength fluctuation that determines rupture length; and (3) large stress drop can be confined to asperities occupying a small fraction of the total rupture area, producing slip distributions with enhanced peaks.

  11. A Process Model of Partnership Evolution Around New IT Initiatives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kestilä, Timo; Salmivalli, Lauri; Salmela, Hannu; Vahtera, Annukka

    Prior research on inter-organizational information systems has focused primarily on dyadic network relationships, where agreements about information exchange are made between two organizations. The focus of this research is on the processes through which IT decisions are made within larger inter-organizational networks with several network parties. The research draws from network theories in organization science to identify three alternative mechanisms for making network level commitments: contracts, rules and values. In addition, theoretical concepts are searched from dynamic network models, which identify different cycles and stages in network evolution. The empirical research was conducted in two networks. The first one comprises of four municipalities which began collaboration in the deployment of IT in early childhood education (ECE). The second network involves a case where several organizations, both private and public, initiated a joint effort to implement a national level electronic prescription system (EPS). The frameworks and concepts drawn from organizational theories are used to explain success of the first case and the failure of the latter case. The paper contributes to prior IOS research by providing a new theory-based framework for the analysis of early stages of building organizational networks around innovative IT initiatives.

  12. Comparison of different initiation protocols in the resistant hepatocyte model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Espandiari, Parvaneh; Robertson, Larry W.; Srinivasan, Cidambi; Glauert, Howard P.

    2005-01-01

    Several models in rat liver have been developed to study multistage carcinogenesis, including the Solt-Farber resistant hepatocyte model. In this model, initiation consists of either a necrogenic dose of a hepatocarcinogen or a non-necrogenic dose in conjunction with partial hepatectomy (PH). As an alternative to PH, we investigated two different procedures: fasting for 96 h followed by refeeding, or the use of one-day-old neonates. Male Fisher 344 rats were injected p.o. with diethylnitrosamine (DEN) (0, 20, or 100 mg/kg) 24 h after refeeding or PH (controls received DEN alone with no proliferative stimulus). For the neonatal group, male and female Fisher 344 rats were treated with DEN (0 or 20 mg/kg, i.p.) at one day of age. All initiated animals were treated at the same age (11 weeks) with the following selection agents: three daily doses of 2-acetylaminofluorene (AAF) (30 mg/kg), followed by a single dose of carbon tetrachloride (2 ml/kg), followed by three additional daily treatments of AAF (30 mg/kg). Rats were euthanized 2 weeks after the last AAF injection. The PH, neonatal male, and neonatal female groups receiving DEN developed more γ-glutamyl transpeptidase (GGT)-positive foci per cubic centimeter and foci per liver as compared to untreated rats receiving the same proliferative stimulus, whereas the fasting/refeeding group and the group receiving no proliferative stimulus did not. All DEN-treated groups receiving one of the proliferative stimuli had more foci per cubic centimeter than the DEN-treated group receiving no proliferative stimulus. The volume fractions of GGT-positive foci in the PH/DEN and neonatal male/DEN groups were higher than those of both the DEN-treated group receiving no proliferative stimulus and the groups receiving the same proliferative stimulus without DEN. In neonatal females-receiving DEN, the volume fraction was not different from either neonatal females not receiving DEN or DEN-treated rats receiving no proliferative

  13. Africa's Great Green Wall Initiative: a model for restoration success

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berrahmouni, Nora; Sacande, Moctar

    2014-05-01

    The Great Green Wall for the Sahara and the Sahel Initiative was launched to address the increasing challenges of land degradation, desertification and drought, climate change, food insecurity and poverty in more than 20 countries. Restoration of agro-sylvo-pastoral landscapes and degraded lands is one of the priority interventions initiated, enabling the springing up of green nests of life. When complete, the Great Green Wall of Africa will reverse the seemingly unstoppable desertification and address the development of its drylands' inhabitant rural communities. Today's planting of modest seedlings will grow into vast mosaics of forest and agroforestry landscapes and grasslands, which will provide essential ecosystem goods and services, restore lost livelihoods and create new wealth. The ambition of reforestation efforts within this initiative - the like of which the world has never seen before - sounds like an impossible dream. However, learning from past mistakes and capitalising on current advancement in science and technology, it is a reality that is taking root. Following a successful restoration model that RBG Kew experts have devised, we are helping to mobilise, train and support communities in four border regions in Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger. In collaboration with FAO, the Millennium Seed Bank Partnership is using its unique expertise to ensure that seeds of environmentally well-adapted and economically useful local species are collected and planted in communal gardens and village agroforestry systems managed by the communities themselves. In our first year, an estimated total of 162,000 seedlings and 61 kg of seeds from 40 useful native species, including grasses for livestock, have been planted to cover 237 ha of farmer-managed land in 19 villages. The keen interest it has created has indicated that these figures will rise five-fold in the second year. These green bricks are the foundations of the living wall that will eventually reach across the

  14. Model of unplanned smoking initiation of children and adolescents: an integrated stage model of smoking behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kremers, S P J; Mudde, A N; De Vries, H

    2004-05-01

    Two lines of psychological research have attempted to spell out the stages of adolescent smoking initiation. The first has focused on behavioral stages of smoking initiation, while the second line emphasized motivational stages. A large international sample of European adolescents (N = 10,170, mean age = 13.3 years) was followed longitudinally. Self-reported motivational and behavioral stages of smoking initiation were integrated, leading to the development of the Model of Unplanned Smoking Initiation of Children and Adolescents (MUSICA). The MUSICA postulates that youngsters experiment with smoking while they are in an unmotivated state as regards their plans for smoking regularly in the future. More than 95% of the total population resided in one of the seven stages distinguished by MUSICA. The probability of starting to smoke regularly during the 12 months follow-up period increased with advanced stage assignment at baseline. Unique social cognitive predictors of stage progression from the various stages were identified, but effect sizes of predictors of transitions were small. The integration of motivational and behavioral dimensions improves our understanding of the process of smoking initiation. In contrast to current theories of smoking initiation, adolescent uptake of smoking behavior was found to be an unplanned action.

  15. A Combat Mission Team Performance Model: Development and initial Application

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Silverman, Denise

    1997-01-01

    ... realistic combat scenarios. We present a conceptual model of team performance measurement in which aircrew coordination, team performance, mission performance and their interrelationships are operationally defined...

  16. Modeling Enterprise Authorization: A Unified Metamodel and Initial Validation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matus Korman

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Authorization and its enforcement, access control, have stood at the beginning of the art and science of information security, and remain being crucial pillar of security in the information technology (IT and enterprises operations. Dozens of different models of access control have been proposed. Although Enterprise Architecture as the discipline strives to support the management of IT, support for modeling access policies in enterprises is often lacking, both in terms of supporting the variety of individual models of access control nowadays used, and in terms of providing a unified ontology capable of flexibly expressing access policies for all or the most of the models. This study summarizes a number of existing models of access control, proposes a unified metamodel mapped to ArchiMate, and illustrates its use on a selection of example scenarios and two business cases.

  17. Analysis, Modeling, and Simulation (AMS) testbed initial screening report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-11-01

    Analysis Modeling and Simulation (AMS) Testbeds can make significant contributions in identifying the benefits of more effective, more active systems management, resulting from integrating transformative applications enabled by new data from wireless...

  18. Modelling

    CERN Document Server

    Spädtke, P

    2013-01-01

    Modeling of technical machines became a standard technique since computer became powerful enough to handle the amount of data relevant to the specific system. Simulation of an existing physical device requires the knowledge of all relevant quantities. Electric fields given by the surrounding boundary as well as magnetic fields caused by coils or permanent magnets have to be known. Internal sources for both fields are sometimes taken into account, such as space charge forces or the internal magnetic field of a moving bunch of charged particles. Used solver routines are briefly described and some bench-marking is shown to estimate necessary computing times for different problems. Different types of charged particle sources will be shown together with a suitable model to describe the physical model. Electron guns are covered as well as different ion sources (volume ion sources, laser ion sources, Penning ion sources, electron resonance ion sources, and H$^-$-sources) together with some remarks on beam transport.

  19. Puzzling initial conditions in the Rh = ct model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bengochea, Gabriel R.; Leon, Gabriel

    2016-01-01

    In recent years, some studies have drawn attention to the lack of large-angle correlations in the observed cosmic microwave background (CMB) temperature anisotropies with respect to that predicted within the standard ΛCDM model. Lately, it has been argued that such a lack of correlations could be explained in the framework of the so-called R h = ct model without inflation. The aim of this work is to study whether there is a mechanism to generate, through a quantum field theory, the primordial power spectrum presented by these authors. Specifically, we consider two different scenarios: first, we assume a scalar field dominating the early Universe in the R h = ct cosmological model, and second, we deal with the possibility of adding an early inflationary phase to the mentioned model. During the analysis of the consistency between the predicted and observed amplitudes of the CMB temperature anisotropies in both scenarios, we run into deep issues which indicate that it is not clear how to characterize the primordial quantum perturbations within the R h = ct model. (orig.)

  20. Experimental and numerical modeling of shrub crown fire initiation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watcharapong Tachajapong; Jesse Lozano; Shakar Mahalingam; Xiangyang Zhou; David Weise

    2009-01-01

    The transition of fire from dry surface fuels to wet shrub crown fuels was studied using laboratory experiments and a simple physical model to gain a better understanding of the transition process. In the experiments, we investigated the effects of varying vertical distances between surface and crown fuels (crown base height), and of the wind speed on crown fire...

  1. Multidimensional Numerical Modeling of Surges Over Initially Dry Land

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Berger, R

    2004-01-01

    .... The first test case is for a straight flume and the second contains a reservoir and a horseshoe channel section. It is important that the model match the timing of the surge as well as the height In both cases the ADH compared closely with the flume results.

  2. Initial and final estimates of the Bilinear seasonal time series model ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A particular class of non-linear models which has been found to be useful in many fields is the bilinear models. A special class of it is discussed in this paper. In getting the estimates of the parameters of this model special attention was paid to the problem of having good initial estimates as it is proposed that with good initial ...

  3. NASA SPoRT Initialization Datasets for Local Model Runs in the Environmental Modeling System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Case, Jonathan L.; LaFontaine, Frank J.; Molthan, Andrew L.; Carcione, Brian; Wood, Lance; Maloney, Joseph; Estupinan, Jeral; Medlin, Jeffrey M.; Blottman, Peter; Rozumalski, Robert A.

    2011-01-01

    The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center has developed several products for its National Weather Service (NWS) partners that can be used to initialize local model runs within the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Environmental Modeling System (EMS). These real-time datasets consist of surface-based information updated at least once per day, and produced in a composite or gridded product that is easily incorporated into the WRF EMS. The primary goal for making these NASA datasets available to the WRF EMS community is to provide timely and high-quality information at a spatial resolution comparable to that used in the local model configurations (i.e., convection-allowing scales). The current suite of SPoRT products supported in the WRF EMS include a Sea Surface Temperature (SST) composite, a Great Lakes sea-ice extent, a Greenness Vegetation Fraction (GVF) composite, and Land Information System (LIS) gridded output. The SPoRT SST composite is a blend of primarily the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) infrared and Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for Earth Observing System data for non-precipitation coverage over the oceans at 2-km resolution. The composite includes a special lake surface temperature analysis over the Great Lakes using contributions from the Remote Sensing Systems temperature data. The Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Ice Percentage product is used to create a sea-ice mask in the SPoRT SST composite. The sea-ice mask is produced daily (in-season) at 1.8-km resolution and identifies ice percentage from 0 100% in 10% increments, with values above 90% flagged as ice.

  4. Non-monotonic modelling from initial requirements: a proposal and comparison with monotonic modelling methods

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marincic, J.; Mader, Angelika H.; Wupper, H.; Wieringa, Roelf J.

    2008-01-01

    Researchers make a significant effort to develop new modelling languages and tools. However, they spend less effort developing methods for constructing models using these languages and tools. We are developing a method for building an embedded system model for formal verification. Our method

  5. Review of the global models used within phase 1 of the Chemistry–Climate Model Initiative (CCMI)

    OpenAIRE

    Morgenstern Olaf; Hegglin Michaela I.; Rozanov Eugene; O& apos; Connor Fiona M.; Abraham N. Luke; Akiyoshi Hideharu; Archibald Alexander T.; Bekki Slimane; Butchart Neal; Chipperfield Martyn P.; Deushi Makoto; Dhomse Sandip S.; Garcia Rolando R.

    2017-01-01

    We present an overview of state-of-The-Art chemistry-climate and chemistry transport models that are used within phase 1 of the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI-1). The CCMI aims to conduct a detailed evaluation of participating models using process-oriented diagnostics derived from observations in order to gain confidence in the models' projections of the stratospheric ozone layer, tropospheric composition, air quality, where applicable global climate change, and the interactions bet...

  6. Alternative DFN model based on initial site investigations at Simpevarp

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Darcel, C. [Itasca Consultants, Ecully (France); Davy, S.A.P.; Bour, O.; Dreuzy, J.R. de [Geosciences, Rennes (France)

    2004-12-01

    In this report, we provide a first-order analysis of the fracture network at the Simpevarp site. The first order model is the fracture distribution function, noted, fdf, which provides the number of fractures having a given orientation and length, and belonging to a given volume of observation. The first-order distribution model does not describe higher-order correlation between fracture parameters, such as a possible dependency of fracture length distribution with orientations. We also check that most of the information is contained in this 1st-order distribution model, and that dividing the fracture networks into different sets do not bring a better statistical description. The fracture distribution function contains 3 main distributions: the probability distribution of fracture orientations, the dependency on the size of the sampling domain that may exhibit non-trivial scaling in case of fractal correlations, and the fracture-length density distribution, which appears to be well fitted by a power law. The main scaling parameters are the fractal dimension and the power-law exponent of the fracture length distribution. The former was found to be about equal to the embedding dimension, meaning that fractal correlations are weak and can be neglected in the DFN model. The latter depends on geology, that is either lithology or grain size, with values that ranges from 3.2 for granite-like outcrops to 4 for diorite or monzodiorite outcrops, as well as for the large-scale lineament maps. When analyzing the consistency of the different datasets (boreholes, outcrops, lineament maps), we found that two different DFNs can be described: the first one is derived from the fdf of the outcrop with fine-grained size lithology, and is valid across all scales investigated in this study, from the highly-fractured cores to large-scale maps; the second one is derived from the fdf of the outcrops with coarse-grained size lithology, and is found consistent with cores that present the

  7. A policy model to initiate environmental negotiations: Three hydropower workshops

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lamb, Berton Lee; Taylor, Jonathan G.; Burkardt, Nina; Ponds, Phadrea D.

    1998-01-01

    How do I get started in natural resource negotiations? Natural resource managers often face difficult negotiations when they implement laws and policies regulating such resources as water, wildlife, wetlands, endangered species, and recreation. As a result of these negotiations, managers must establish rules, grant permits, or create management plans. The Legal‐Institutional Analysis Model (LIAM) was designed to assist managers in systematically analyzing the parties in natural resource negotiations and using that analysis to prepare for bargaining. The LIAM relies on the theory that organizations consistently employ behavioral roles. The model uses those roles to predict likely negotiation behavior. One practical use of the LIAM is when all parties to a negotiation conduct a workshop as a way to open the bargaining on a note of trust and mutual understanding. The process and results of three LIAM workshops designed to guide hydroelectric power licensing negotiations are presented. Our experience with these workshops led us to conclude that the LIAM can be an effective tool to begin a negotiation and that trust built through the workshops can help create a successful result.

  8. Initial layer theory and model equations of Volterra type

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bijura, Angelina M.

    2003-10-01

    It is demonstrated here that there exist initial layers to singularly perturbed Volterra equations whose thicknesses are not of order of magnitude of 0(ε), ε → 0. It is also shown that the initial layer theory is extremely useful because it allows one to construct the approximate solution to an equation, which is almost identical to the exact solution. (author)

  9. A model of frontal polymerization using complex initiation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. M. Goldfeder

    1999-01-01

    Full Text Available Frontal polymerization is a process in which a spatially localized reaction zone propagates into a monomer, converting it into a polymer. In the simplest case of free-radical polymerization, a mixture of monomer and initiator is placed in a test tube. A reaction is then initiated at one end of the tube. Over time, a self-sustained thermal wave, in which chemical conversion occurs, is produced. This phenomenon is possible because of the highly exothermic nature of the polymerization reactions.

  10. On detonation initiation by a temperature gradient for a detailed chemical reaction models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liberman, M.A.; Kiverin, A.D.; Ivanov, M.F.

    2011-01-01

    The evolution from a temperature gradient to a detonation is investigated for combustion mixture whose chemistry is governed by a detailed chemical kinetics. We show that a detailed chemical reaction model has a profound effect on the spontaneous wave concept for detonation initiation by a gradient of reactivity. The evolution to detonation due to a temperature gradient is considered for hydrogen-oxygen and hydrogen-air mixtures at different initial pressures. It is shown that the minimal length of the temperature gradient for which a detonation can be ignited is much larger than that predicted from a one-step chemical model. - Highlights: → We study detonation initiation by temperature gradient for detailed chemical models. → Detailed chemical models have a profound effect on the spontaneous wave concept. → Initiating detonation by temperature gradient differs from one-step model. → In real fuels DDT can not be initiated by temperature gradient.

  11. Samdrup Jongkhar Initiative : a Model of Integrated Ecologically ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    2011-03-21

    Brown Cloud penetrates Bhutan : ambient air quality and trans-boundary pollution in Bhutan. Rapports. Report on organic study tour to India sponsored by Samdrup Jongkhar Initiative, Dewathang, March 21, 2011 to April 9, 2011, and funded by International Development Research Centre, Canada. Rapports. Samdrup ...

  12. The Blantyre Integrated Malaria Initiative: a model for effective ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    [Introduction]: The Blantyre Integrated Malaria Initiative (BIMI) is a district-wide malaria-control effort, supported jointly by the Government of Malawi and the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). BIMI was established in Blantyre District, Malawi in 1998 to promote sustainable and effective strategies to ...

  13. Samdrup Jongkhar Initiative : a Model of Integrated Ecologically ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    The Samdrup Jongkhar Initiative is a civil society project in southeastern Bhutan designed to foster ecologically friendly development in harmony with Bhutan's holistic philosophy, which endeavors to integrate social, economic, cultural and environmental ... Asian outlook: New growth dependent on new productivity. There is ...

  14. A linear regression modelling of the relation- ship between initial ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    despite there being a need for certainty regarding the completion of projects. This article reports on an investigation of the ... Keywords: Relationship, initial & final construction time, project delivery. Dr Ayodeji Olatunji Aiyetan, Department of ..... for computing final contract duration. Therefore, both are recommended for use ...

  15. Initial Earthquake Centrifuge Model Experiments for the Study of Liquefaction

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Steedman, R

    1998-01-01

    .... A detailed experiment program has been developed for the first series of experiments studying the development of excess pore pressure in a level saturated sand bed under dynamic shaking at different effective overburden stresses. The initial experiments using the new large 'earthquake' shaker have been completed and data is presented and analysed.

  16. Experimental evidence and physical models of fatigue crack initiation

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Polák, Jaroslav; Man, Jiří

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 91, OCT (2016), s. 294-303 ISSN 0142-1123 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA13-23652S; GA ČR GA13-32665S; GA MŠk(CZ) ED1.1.00/02.0068 Institutional support: RVO:68081723 Keywords : Crack initiation * Persistent slip band * Point defects * Extrusions * Intrusions Subject RIV: JL - Materials Fatigue, Friction Mechanics Impact factor: 2.899, year: 2016

  17. Exploring the Process of Implementing Healthy Workplace Initiatives: Mapping to Kotter's Leading Change Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chappell, Stacie; Pescud, Melanie; Waterworth, Pippa; Shilton, Trevor; Roche, Dee; Ledger, Melissa; Slevin, Terry; Rosenberg, Michael

    2016-10-01

    The aim of this study was to use Kotter's leading change model to explore the implementation of workplace health and wellbeing initiatives. Qualitative interviews were conducted with 31 workplace representatives with a healthy workplace initiative. None of the workplaces used a formal change management model when implementing their healthy workplace initiatives. Not all of the steps in Kotter model were considered necessary and the order of the steps was challenged. For example, interviewees perceived that communicating the vision, developing the vision, and creating a guiding coalition were integral parts of the process, although there was less emphasis on the importance of creating a sense of urgency and consolidating change. Although none of the workplaces reported using a formal organizational change model when implementing their healthy workplace initiatives, there did appear to be perceived merit in using the steps in Kotter's model.

  18. A Gompertz population model with Allee effect and fuzzy initial values

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amarti, Zenia; Nurkholipah, Nenden Siti; Anggriani, Nursanti; Supriatna, Asep K.

    2018-03-01

    Growth and population dynamics models are important tools used in preparing a good management for society to predict the future of population or species. This has been done by various known methods, one among them is by developing a mathematical model that describes population growth. Models are usually formed into differential equations or systems of differential equations, depending on the complexity of the underlying properties of the population. One example of biological complexity is Allee effect. It is a phenomenon showing a high correlation between very small population size and the mean individual fitness of the population. In this paper the population growth model used is the Gompertz equation model by considering the Allee effect on the population. We explore the properties of the solution to the model numerically using the Runge-Kutta method. Further exploration is done via fuzzy theoretical approach to accommodate uncertainty of the initial values of the model. It is known that an initial value greater than the Allee threshold will cause the solution rises towards carrying capacity asymptotically. However, an initial value smaller than the Allee threshold will cause the solution decreases towards zero asymptotically, which means the population is eventually extinct. Numerical solutions show that modeling uncertain initial value of the critical point A (the Allee threshold) with a crisp initial value could cause the extinction of population of a certain possibilistic degree, depending on the predetermined membership function of the initial value.

  19. Mouse Model of Human Breast Cancer Initiated by a Fusion Oncogene

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Orkin, Stuart H

    2006-01-01

    In this study, we generated a novel mouse model of human breast cancer based on a recurrent chromosomal translocation that produces the TEL-NTRK3 fusion oncogene, as the initiating mutation in human...

  20. Modeling the downward transport of 210Pb in Peatlands: Initial Penetration‐Constant Rate of Supply (IP-CRS) model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Olid, Carolina; Diego, David; Garcia-Orellana, Jordi; Cortizas, Antonio Martínez; Klaminder, Jonatan

    2016-01-01

    The vertical distribution of 210 Pb is commonly used to date peat deposits accumulated over the last 100–150 years. However, several studies have questioned this method because of an apparent post-depositional mobility of 210 Pb within some peat profiles. In this study, we introduce the Initial Penetration–Constant Rate of Supply (IP-CRS) model for calculating ages derived from 210 Pb profiles that are altered by an initial migration of the radionuclide. This new, two-phased, model describes the distribution of atmospheric-derived 210 Pb ( 210 Pb xs ) in peat taking into account both incorporation of 210 Pb into the accumulating peat matrix as well as an initial flushing of 210 Pb through the uppermost peat layers. The validity of the IP-CRS model is tested in four anomalous 210 Pb peat records that showed some deviations from the typical exponential decay profile not explained by variations in peat accumulation rates. Unlike the most commonly used 210 Pb-dating model (Constant Rate of Supply (CRS)), the IP-CRS model estimates peat accumulation rates consistent with typical growth rates for peatlands from the same areas. Confidence in the IP-CRS chronology is also provided by the good agreement with independent chronological markers (i.e. 241 Am and 137 Cs). Our results showed that the IP-CRS can provide chronologies from peat records where 210 Pb mobility is evident, being a valuable tool for studies reconstructing past environmental changes using peat archives during the Anthropocene. - Highlights: • Accurate age dating of peat and sediment cores is critical for evaluating change. • A new 210 Pb dating model that includes vertical transport of 210 Pb was developed. • The IP-CRS model provided consistent peat accumulation rates. • The IP-CRS ages were consistent with independent chronological markers. • The IP-CRS model derives peat ages where downward 210 Pb transport is evidenced.

  1. Ozone damage to crops in southern Africa: An initial modeling study

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Zunckel, M

    2006-06-01

    Full Text Available of this research is to investigate the feasibility of including the stomatal flux algorithms in the CAMx model, and so improve the estimates of ozone uptake in plants and the subsequent risk of ozone damage posed to crops. The initial model results indicate...

  2. Modified Liu-Carter Compression Model for Natural Clays with Various Initial Water Contents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sen Qian

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The initial water content has a significant effect on the compression behaviour of reconstituted clays. This effect has to be considered in the Liu-Carter model to ensure the addition voids ratio only related to soil structure. A modified Liu-Carter compression model is proposed by introducing the empirical equations for reconstituted clays at different initial water contents into the Liu-Carter model. The proposed model is verified against the experimental results from the literature. The simulations by the proposed method are also compared with that by old method where the influence of initial water content is not considered. The results show that the predicted virgin compression curves of natural clays are similar, but the values of b and Δey may be very different.

  3. Can Milankovitch orbital variations initiate the growth of ice sheets in a general circulation model?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rind, D.; Peteet, D.; Kukla, G.

    1989-01-01

    The possibility of initiating the growth of ice sheets by solar insolation variations is examined. The study is conducted using a climate model with three different orbital configurations corresponding to 116,000 and 106,000 yr before the present and a modified insolation field with greater reductions in summer insolation at high northern latitudes. Despite the reduced summer and fall insolation, the model fails to maintain snow cover through the summer at locations of suspected ice sheet initiation. The results suggest that there is a discrepancy between the model's response to Milankovitch perturbations and the geophysical evidence of ice sheet initiation. If the model results are correct, the growth of ice shown by geophysical evidence would have occurred in an extremely ablative environment, demanding a complicated strategy.

  4. Calculation of the Initial Magnetic Field for Mercury's Magnetosphere Hybrid Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexeev, Igor; Parunakian, David; Dyadechkin, Sergey; Belenkaya, Elena; Khodachenko, Maxim; Kallio, Esa; Alho, Markku

    2018-03-01

    Several types of numerical models are used to analyze the interactions of the solar wind flow with Mercury's magnetosphere, including kinetic models that determine magnetic and electric fields based on the spatial distribution of charges and currents, magnetohydrodynamic models that describe plasma as a conductive liquid, and hybrid models that describe ions kinetically in collisionless mode and represent electrons as a massless neutralizing liquid. The structure of resulting solutions is determined not only by the chosen set of equations that govern the behavior of plasma, but also by the initial and boundary conditions; i.e., their effects are not limited to the amount of computational work required to achieve a quasi-stationary solution. In this work, we have proposed using the magnetic field computed by the paraboloid model of Mercury's magnetosphere as the initial condition for subsequent hybrid modeling. The results of the model have been compared to measurements performed by the Messenger spacecraft during a single crossing of the magnetosheath and the magnetosphere. The selected orbit lies in the terminator plane, which allows us to observe two crossings of the bow shock and the magnetopause. In our calculations, we have defined the initial parameters of the global magnetospheric current systems in a way that allows us to minimize paraboloid magnetic field deviation along the trajectory of the Messenger from the experimental data. We have shown that the optimal initial field parameters include setting the penetration of a partial interplanetary magnetic field into the magnetosphere with a penetration coefficient of 0.2.

  5. Principal-subordinate hierarchical multi-objective programming model of initial water rights allocation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dan Wu

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available The principal-subordinate hierarchical multi-objective programming model of initial water rights allocation was developed based on the principle of coordinated and sustainable development of different regions and water sectors within a basin. With the precondition of strictly controlling maximum emissions rights, initial water rights were allocated between the first and the second levels of the hierarchy in order to promote fair and coordinated development across different regions of the basin and coordinated and efficient water use across different water sectors, realize the maximum comprehensive benefits to the basin, promote the unity of quantity and quality of initial water rights allocation, and eliminate water conflict across different regions and water sectors. According to interactive decision-making theory, a principal-subordinate hierarchical interactive iterative algorithm based on the satisfaction degree was developed and used to solve the initial water rights allocation model. A case study verified the validity of the model.

  6. Comparison of mechanistic models in the initial rate enzymatic hydrolysis of AFEX-treated wheat straw

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Agbogbo Frank K

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Different mechanistic models have been used in the literature to describe the enzymatic hydrolysis of pretreated biomass. Although these different models have been applied to different substrates, most of these mechanistic models fit into two- and three-parameter mechanistic models. The purpose of this study is to compare the models and determine the activation energy and the enthalpy of adsorption of Trichoderma reesei enzymes on ammonia fibre explosion (AFEX-treated wheat straw. Experimental enzymatic hydrolysis data from AFEX-treated wheat straw were modelled with two- and three-parameter mechanistic models from the literature. In order to discriminate between the models, initial rate data at 49°C were subjected to statistical analysis (analysis of variance and scatter plots. Results For three-parameter models, the HCH-1 model best fitted the experimental data; for two-parameter models Michaelis-Menten (M-M best fitted the experimental data. All the three-parameter models fitted the data better than the two-parameter models. The best three models at 49°C (HCH-1, Huang and M-M were compared using initial rate data at three temperatures (35°, 42° and 49°C. The HCH-1 model provided the best fit based on the F values, the scatter plot and the residual sum of squares. Also, its kinetic parameters were linear in Arrhenius/van't Hoff's plots, unlike the other models. The activation energy (Ea is 47.6 kJ/mol and the enthalpy change of adsorption (ΔH is -118 kJ/mol for T. reesei enzymes on AFEX-treated wheat straw. Conclusion Among the two-parameter models, Michaelis-Menten model provided the best fit compared to models proposed by Humphrey and Wald. For the three-parameter models, HCH-1 provided the best fit because the model includes a fractional coverage parameter (ϕ which accounts for the number of reactive sites covered by the enzymes.

  7. Expert initial review of Columbia River Basin salmonid management models: Summary report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barnthouse, L.W.

    1993-10-01

    Over the past years, several fish passage models have been developed to examine the downstream survival of salmon during their annual migration through the Columbia River reservoir system to below Bonneville Dam. More recently, models have been created to simulate the survival of salmon throughout the entire life cycle. The models are used by various regional agencies and native American tribes to assess impacts of dam operation, harvesting, and predation on salmonid abundance. These models are now also being used to assess extinction probabilities and evaluate restoration alternatives for threatened and endangered salmonid stocks. Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) coordinated an initial evaluation of the principal models by a panel of outside, expert reviewers. None of the models were unequivocally endorsed by any reviewer. Significant strengths and weaknesses were noted for each with respect to reasonability of assumptions and equations, adequacy of documentation, adequacy of supporting data, and calibration procedures. Although the models reviewed differ in some important respects, all reflect a common conceptual basis in classical population dynamic theory and a common empirical basis consisting of the available time series of salmonid stock data, hydrographic records, experimental studies of dam passage parameters, and measurements of reservoir mortality. The results of this initial review are not to be construed as a comprehensive scientific peer review of existing Columbia River Basin (CRB) salmon population models and data. The peer review process can be enhanced further by a dynamic exchange regional modelers and scientific panel experts involving interaction and feedback

  8. What it takes to get proactive: An integrative multilevel model of the antecedents of personal initiative.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hong, Ying; Liao, Hui; Raub, Steffen; Han, Joo Hun

    2016-05-01

    Building upon and extending Parker, Bindl, and Strauss's (2010) theory of proactive motivation, we develop an integrated, multilevel model to examine how contextual factors shape employees' proactive motivational states and, through these proactive motivational states, influence their personal initiative behavior. Using data from a sample of hotels collected from 3 sources and over 2 time periods, we show that establishment-level initiative-enhancing human resource management (HRM) systems were positively related to departmental initiative climate, which was positively related to employee personal initiative through employee role-breadth self-efficacy. Further, department-level empowering leadership was positively related to initiative climate only when initiative-enhancing HRM systems were low. These findings offer interesting implications for research on personal initiative and for the management of employee proactivity in organizations. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

  9. Models for ductile crack initiation and tearing resistance under mode 1 loading in pressure vessel steels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, M.R.

    1988-06-01

    Micromechanistic models are presented which aim to predict plane strain ductile initiation toughness, tearing resistance and notched bar fracture strains in pressure vessel steels under monotonically increasing tensile (mode 1) loading. The models for initiation toughness and tearing resistance recognize that ductile fracture proceeds by the growth and linkage of voids with the crack-tip. The models are shown to predict the trend of initiation toughness with inclusion spacing/size ratio and can bound the available experimental data. The model for crack growth can reproduce the tearing resistance of a pressure vessel steel up to and just beyond crack growth initiation. The fracture strains of notched bars pulled in tension are shown to correspond to the achievement of a critical volume fraction of voids. This criterion is combined with the true stress - true strain history of a material point ahead of a blunting crack-tip to predict the initiation toughness. An attempt was made to predict the fracture strains of notched tensile bars by adopting a model which predicts the onset of a shear localization phenomenon. Fracture strains of the correct order are computed only if a ''secondary'' void nucleation event at carbide precipitates is taken into account. (author)

  10. Dynamical initial-state model for relativistic heavy-ion collisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Chun; Schenke, Björn

    2018-02-01

    We present a fully three-dimensional model providing initial conditions for energy and net-baryon density distributions in heavy-ion collisions at arbitrary collision energy. The model includes the dynamical deceleration of participating nucleons or valence quarks, depending on the implementation. The duration of the deceleration continues until the string spanned between colliding participants is assumed to thermalize, which is either after a fixed proper time, or a fluctuating time depending on sampled final rapidities. Energy is deposited in space time along the string, which in general will span a range of space-time rapidities and proper times. We study various observables obtained directly from the initial-state model, including net-baryon rapidity distributions, two-particle rapidity correlations, as well as the rapidity decorrelation of the transverse geometry. Their dependence on the model implementation and parameter values is investigated. We also present the implementation of the model with 3+1-dimensional hydrodynamics, which involves the addition of source terms that deposit energy and net-baryon densities produced by the initial-state model at proper times greater than the initial time for the hydrodynamic simulation.

  11. Comment on ‘Initial states of qubit–environment models leading to conserved quantities’

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lo, C F

    2014-01-01

    Recently, Gardas and Dajka (2013 J. Phys. A: Math. Theor. 46 235301) proposed a theoretical scheme on how to prepare a proper initial state of a composite qubit–boson system which could assure no energy exchange between the two subsystems. For illustration, they applied the proposed scheme to both the Jaynes–Cummings model and the multi-photon Rabi model. However, it has already been rigorously proven that the k-photon Rabi model for k > 2 does not have eigenstates in the Hilbert space spanned by the eigenstates of the corresponding k-photon Jaynes–Cummings model and that the two-photon Rabi model has a discrete eigenenergy spectrum with normalizable eigenstates only if the coupling strength is smaller than a critical value. Hence, the proposed theoretical scheme is not applicable to the multi-photon Rabi model. (comment)

  12. Establishment of a new initial dose plan for vancomycin using the generalized linear mixed model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kourogi, Yasuyuki; Ogata, Kenji; Takamura, Norito; Tokunaga, Jin; Setoguchi, Nao; Kai, Mitsuhiro; Tanaka, Emi; Chiyotanda, Susumu

    2017-04-08

    When administering vancomycin hydrochloride (VCM), the initial dose is adjusted to ensure that the steady-state trough value (Css-trough) remains within the effective concentration range. However, the Css-trough (population mean method predicted value [PMMPV]) calculated using the population mean method (PMM) often deviate from the effective concentration range. In this study, we used the generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) for initial dose planning to create a model that accurately predicts Css-trough, and subsequently assessed its prediction accuracy. The study included 46 subjects whose trough values were measured after receiving VCM. We calculated the Css-trough (Bayesian estimate predicted value [BEPV]) from the Bayesian estimates of trough values. Using the patients' medical data, we created models that predict the BEPV and selected the model with minimum information criterion (GLMM best model). We then calculated the Css-trough (GLMMPV) from the GLMM best model and compared the BEPV correlation with GLMMPV and with PMMPV. The GLMM best model was {[0.977 + (males: 0.029 or females: -0.081)] × PMMPV + 0.101 × BUN/adjusted SCr - 12.899 × SCr adjusted amount}. The coefficients of determination for BEPV/GLMMPV and BEPV/PMMPV were 0.623 and 0.513, respectively. We demonstrated that the GLMM best model was more accurate in predicting the Css-trough than the PMM.

  13. Thrust initiation and propagation during shortening of a 2-layer model lithosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marques, Fernando O.

    2008-01-01

    Analogue modelling was used to investigate thrust initiation and propagation in the lithosphere. The model comprised a top layer of light sand (model brittle crust) overlying a layer of heavy silicone putty (model ductile lower crust), both resting upon higher density and lower viscosity natural honey (model ductile mantle). The experiments show the following. (1) Thrust initiation may occur in two main modes: fold-first or fault-first. They seem to be the result of presence or absence of an initial perturbation close to the piston, respectively. The fault-first mode eventually goes into a fold-first mode after a certain amount of deformation. (2) In both modes, thrusts localized around the inflection points of both fore and back-limbs of buckles as a result of tectonic (horizontal), gravitational (vertical) and elastic forces. (3) Thrust propagation in the fault-first mode occurred by thrust wedge thickening and downward flexure due to isostatic compensation, which led to forward formation of bulges and subsequent amplification by buckling. Continued shortening increased the stresses that reached the brittle yield of sand and new thrusts originated. (4) Bulging ahead of thrusts tended to develop into asymmetric buckles with the shorter limb (back-limb) steeper towards the piston. (5) As a whole, thrust initiation and propagation seem to depend mostly on how stresses evolve and propagate through the model and how material strength varies with progressive deformation. The main stresses at play are born at the moving piston (model horizontal tectonic force), from thickening and isostatic compensation in the model (gravitational forces), and from elastic resistance to buckling.

  14. STUDY CONCERNING THE ELABORATION OF CERTAIN ORIENTATION MODELS AND THE INITIAL SELECTION FOR SPEED SKATING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vaida Marius

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available In realizing this study I started from the premise that, by elaborating certain orientation models and initial selection for the speed skating and their application will appear superior results, necessary results, taking into account the actual evolution of the high performance sport in general and of the speed skating, in special.The target of this study has been the identification of an orientation model and a complete initial selection that should be based on the favorable aptitudes of the speed skating. On the basis of the made researched orientation models and initial selection has been made, things that have been demonstrated experimental that are not viable, the study starting from the data of the 120 copies, the complete experiment being made by 32 subjects separated in two groups, one using the proposed model and the other formed fromsubjects randomly selected.These models can serve as common working instruments both for the orientation process and for the initial selection one, being able to integrate in the proper practical activity, these being used easily both by coaches that are in charge with the proper selection of the athletes but also by the physical education teachers orschool teachers that are in contact with children of an early age.

  15. EARLY DYNAMICAL EVOLUTION OF THE SOLAR SYSTEM: PINNING DOWN THE INITIAL CONDITIONS OF THE NICE MODEL

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Batygin, Konstantin; Brown, Michael E.

    2010-01-01

    In the recent years, the 'Nice' model of solar system formation has attained an unprecedented level of success in reproducing much of the observed orbital architecture of the solar system by evolving the planets to their current locations from a more compact configuration. Within the context of this model, the formation of the classical Kuiper Belt requires a phase during which the ice giants have a high eccentricity. An outstanding question of this model is the initial configuration from which the solar system started out. Recent work has shown that multi-resonant initial conditions can serve as good candidates, as they naturally prevent vigorous type-II migration. In this paper, we use analytical arguments, as well as self-consistent numerical N-body simulations to identify fully resonant initial conditions, whose dynamical evolution is characterized by an eccentric phase of the ice giants, as well as planetary scattering. We find a total of eight such initial conditions. Four of these primordial states are compatible with the canonical 'Nice' model, while the others imply slightly different evolutions. The results presented here should prove useful in further development of a comprehensive model for solar system formation.

  16. Initial computer modeling of WIPP [Waste Isolation Pilot Plant] underground ventilation system, September 1985--March 1986

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sethi, S.

    1986-11-01

    Provision of a good ventilation system has been and continues to be a major priority here of those responsible for its design, management, and operation. As an ongoing effort in this direction, development of computer simulated models for the system was initiated in September, 1985. It was decided to utilize Dravo's 'MINEVENT' computer program for this purpose. Accordingly, initial computer models of the mine's ventilation system have been developed for various modes of operation. Specifically, they include: Simulation of the current ventilation system, and Simulation of the designed ventilation system for modes: mine construction mode/shift, waste storage mode/shift, and air reversal mode. 5 figs

  17. Initialization and assimilation of cloud and rainwater in a regional model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raymond, William H.; Olson, William S.

    1990-01-01

    The initialization and assimilation of cloud and rainwater quantities in a mesoscale regional model was examined. Forecasts of explicit cloud and rainwater are made using conservation equations. The physical processes include condensation, evaporation, autoconversion, accretion, and the removal of rainwater by fallout. These physical processes, some of which are parameterized, represent source and sink in terms in the conservation equations. The question of how to initialize the explicit liquid water calculations in numerical models and how to retain information about precipitation processes during the 4-D assimilation cycle are important issues that are addressed.

  18. Centrifuge model tests of rainfall-induced slope failures for the investigation of the initiation conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matziaris, Vasileios; Marshall, Alec; Yu, Hai-Sui

    2015-04-01

    Rainfall-induced landslides are very common natural disasters which cause damage to properties and infrastructure and may result in the loss of human lives. These phenomena often take place in unsaturated soil slopes and are triggered by the saturation of the soil profile, due to rain infiltration, which leads to a loss of shear strength. The aim of this study is to determine rainfall thresholds for the initiation of landslides under different initial conditions. Model tests of rainfall-induced landslides are conducted in the Nottingham Centre for Geomechanics 50g-T geotechnical centrifuge. Initially unsaturated plane-strain slope models made with fine silica sand are prepared at varying densities at 1g and accommodated within a climatic chamber which provides controlled environmental conditions. During the centrifuge flight at 60g, rainfall events of varying intensity and duration are applied to the slope models causing the initiation of slope failure. The impact of soil state properties and rainfall characteristics on the landslide initiation process are discussed. The variation of pore water pressures within the slope before, during and after simulated rainfall events is recorded using miniature pore pressure transducers buried in the soil model. Slope deformation is determined by using a high-speed camera and digital image analysis techniques.

  19. Full-field initialized decadal predictions with the MPI earth system model: an initial shock in the North Atlantic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kröger, Jürgen; Pohlmann, Holger; Sienz, Frank; Marotzke, Jochem; Baehr, Johanna; Köhl, Armin; Modali, Kameswarrao; Polkova, Iuliia; Stammer, Detlef; Vamborg, Freja S. E.; Müller, Wolfgang A.

    2017-12-01

    Our decadal climate prediction system, which is based on the Max-Planck-Institute Earth System Model, is initialized from a coupled assimilation run that utilizes nudging to selected state parameters from reanalyses. We apply full-field nudging in the atmosphere and either full-field or anomaly nudging in the ocean. Full fields from two different ocean reanalyses are considered. This comparison of initialization strategies focuses on the North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre (SPG) region, where the transition from anomaly to full-field nudging reveals large differences in prediction skill for sea surface temperature and ocean heat content (OHC). We show that nudging of temperature and salinity in the ocean modifies OHC and also induces changes in mass and heat transports associated with the ocean flow. In the SPG region, the assimilated OHC signal resembles well OHC from observations, regardless of using full fields or anomalies. The resulting ocean transport, on the other hand, reveals considerable differences between full-field and anomaly nudging. In all assimilation runs, ocean heat transport together with net heat exchange at the surface does not correspond to OHC tendencies, the SPG heat budget is not closed. Discrepancies in the budget in the cases of full-field nudging exceed those in the case of anomaly nudging by a factor of 2-3. The nudging-induced changes in ocean transport continue to be present in the free running hindcasts for up to 5 years, a clear expression of memory in our coupled system. In hindcast mode, on annual to inter-annual scales, ocean heat transport is the dominant driver of SPG OHC. Thus, we ascribe a significant reduction in OHC prediction skill when using full-field instead of anomaly initialization to an initialization shock resulting from the poor initialization of the ocean flow.

  20. Effect of the initial stage of annealing on modeling of enthalpy relaxation in a hyperquenched glass

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhang, Yanfei; Guo, Xiaoju; Yue, Yuanzheng

    2013-01-01

    relaxation in both HQG and AHQG during the initial stage of both the sub-Tg and above-Tg annealing cannot be captured by the existing models. In this Letter we show that the combination of a modified stretched exponential equation [M. Peyron, et al., J. Magn. Reson, Series A 118 (1996) 214] and the recently...

  1. The role of initial values in nonstationary fractional time series models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Johansen, Søren; Nielsen, Morten Ørregaard

    We consider the nonstationary fractional model $\\Delta^{d}X_{t}=\\varepsilon _{t}$ with $\\varepsilon_{t}$ i.i.d.$(0,\\sigma^{2})$ and $d>1/2$. We derive an analytical expression for the main term of the asymptotic bias of the maximum likelihood estimator of $d$ conditional on initial values, and we...

  2. Educational Transformation in Upper-Division Physics: The Science Education Initiative Model, Outcomes, and Lessons Learned

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chasteen, Stephanie V.; Wilcox, Bethany; Caballero, Marcos D.; Perkins, Katherine K.; Pollock, Steven J.; Wieman, Carl E.

    2015-01-01

    In response to the need for a scalable, institutionally supported model of educational change, the Science Education Initiative (SEI) was created as an experiment in transforming course materials and faculty practices at two institutions--University of Colorado Boulder (CU) and University of British Columbia. We find that this departmentally…

  3. Activating, Measuring and Manipulating Interest in an Artistic Event: An Initial Interest Modification Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wyatt, Robert O.

    To understand better how reviewing and other forms of evaluative journalism influence audiences and to test a proposed model, a series of experiments on 410 undergraduates assessed how initial film-viewing interest level (low, medium, high) and review direction (negative, mixed, positive) affected interest in film attendance. First, an extended…

  4. Toward verifying fossil fuel CO2 emissions with the CMAQ model: motivation, model description and initial simulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Zhen; Bambha, Ray P; Pinto, Joseph P; Zeng, Tao; Boylan, Jim; Huang, Maoyi; Lei, Huimin; Zhao, Chun; Liu, Shishi; Mao, Jiafu; Schwalm, Christopher R; Shi, Xiaoying; Wei, Yaxing; Michelsen, Hope A

    2014-04-01

    Motivated by the question of whether and how a state-of-the-art regional chemical transport model (CTM) can facilitate characterization of CO2 spatiotemporal variability and verify CO2 fossil-fuel emissions, we for the first time applied the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model to simulate CO2. This paper presents methods, input data, and initial results for CO2 simulation using CMAQ over the contiguous United States in October 2007. Modeling experiments have been performed to understand the roles of fossil-fuel emissions, biosphere-atmosphere exchange, and meteorology in regulating the spatial distribution of CO2 near the surface over the contiguous United States. Three sets of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) fluxes were used as input to assess the impact of uncertainty of NEE on CO2 concentrations simulated by CMAQ. Observational data from six tall tower sites across the country were used to evaluate model performance. In particular, at the Boulder Atmospheric Observatory (BAO), a tall tower site that receives urban emissions from Denver CO, the CMAQ model using hourly varying, high-resolution CO2 fossil-fuel emissions from the Vulcan inventory and Carbon Tracker optimized NEE reproduced the observed diurnal profile of CO2 reasonably well but with a low bias in the early morning. The spatial distribution of CO2 was found to correlate with NO(x), SO2, and CO, because of their similar fossil-fuel emission sources and common transport processes. These initial results from CMAQ demonstrate the potential of using a regional CTM to help interpret CO2 observations and understand CO2 variability in space and time. The ability to simulate a full suite of air pollutants in CMAQ will also facilitate investigations of their use as tracers for CO2 source attribution. This work serves as a proof of concept and the foundation for more comprehensive examinations of CO2 spatiotemporal variability and various uncertainties in the future. Atmospheric CO2 has long been modeled

  5. Uncertainty Estimation in Tsunami Initial Condition From Rapid Bayesian Finite Fault Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benavente, R. F.; Dettmer, J.; Cummins, P. R.; Urrutia, A.; Cienfuegos, R.

    2017-12-01

    It is well known that kinematic rupture models for a given earthquake can present discrepancies even when similar datasets are employed in the inversion process. While quantifying this variability can be critical when making early estimates of the earthquake and triggered tsunami impact, "most likely models" are normally used for this purpose. In this work, we quantify the uncertainty of the tsunami initial condition for the great Illapel earthquake (Mw = 8.3, 2015, Chile). We focus on utilizing data and inversion methods that are suitable to rapid source characterization yet provide meaningful and robust results. Rupture models from teleseismic body and surface waves as well as W-phase are derived and accompanied by Bayesian uncertainty estimates from linearized inversion under positivity constraints. We show that robust and consistent features about the rupture kinematics appear when working within this probabilistic framework. Moreover, by using static dislocation theory, we translate the probabilistic slip distributions into seafloor deformation which we interpret as a tsunami initial condition. After considering uncertainty, our probabilistic seafloor deformation models obtained from different data types appear consistent with each other providing meaningful results. We also show that selecting just a single "representative" solution from the ensemble of initial conditions for tsunami propagation may lead to overestimating information content in the data. Our results suggest that rapid, probabilistic rupture models can play a significant role during emergency response by providing robust information about the extent of the disaster.

  6. An application of the Continuous Opinions and Discrete Actions (CODA) model to adolescent smoking initiation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Ruoyan; Mendez, David

    2017-01-01

    We investigated the impact of peers' opinions on the smoking initiation process among adolescents. We applied the Continuous Opinions and Discrete Actions (CODA) model to study how social interactions change adolescents' opinions and behaviors about smoking. Through agent-based modeling (ABM), we simulated a population of 2500 adolescents and compared smoking prevalence to data from 9 cohorts of adolescents in the National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH) from year 2001 till 2014. Our model adjusts well for NSDUH data according to pseudo R2 values, which are at least 96%. Optimal parameter values indicate that adolescents exhibit imitator characteristics with regard to smoking opinions. The imitator characteristics suggests that teenagers tend to update their opinions consistently according to what others do, and these opinions later translate into smoking behaviors. As a result, peer influence from social networks plays a big role in the smoking initiation process and should be an important driver in policy formulation.

  7. An application of the Continuous Opinions and Discrete Actions (CODA model to adolescent smoking initiation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ruoyan Sun

    Full Text Available We investigated the impact of peers' opinions on the smoking initiation process among adolescents. We applied the Continuous Opinions and Discrete Actions (CODA model to study how social interactions change adolescents' opinions and behaviors about smoking. Through agent-based modeling (ABM, we simulated a population of 2500 adolescents and compared smoking prevalence to data from 9 cohorts of adolescents in the National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH from year 2001 till 2014. Our model adjusts well for NSDUH data according to pseudo R2 values, which are at least 96%. Optimal parameter values indicate that adolescents exhibit imitator characteristics with regard to smoking opinions. The imitator characteristics suggests that teenagers tend to update their opinions consistently according to what others do, and these opinions later translate into smoking behaviors. As a result, peer influence from social networks plays a big role in the smoking initiation process and should be an important driver in policy formulation.

  8. A novel level set model with automated initialization and controlling parameters for medical image segmentation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Qingyi; Jiang, Mingyan; Bai, Peirui; Yang, Guang

    2016-03-01

    In this paper, a level set model without the need of generating initial contour and setting controlling parameters manually is proposed for medical image segmentation. The contribution of this paper is mainly manifested in three points. First, we propose a novel adaptive mean shift clustering method based on global image information to guide the evolution of level set. By simple threshold processing, the results of mean shift clustering can automatically and speedily generate an initial contour of level set evolution. Second, we devise several new functions to estimate the controlling parameters of the level set evolution based on the clustering results and image characteristics. Third, the reaction diffusion method is adopted to supersede the distance regularization term of RSF-level set model, which can improve the accuracy and speed of segmentation effectively with less manual intervention. Experimental results demonstrate the performance and efficiency of the proposed model for medical image segmentation. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Quantifying Uncertainty in Model Predictions for the Pliocene (Plio-QUMP): Initial results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pope, J.O.; Collins, M.; Haywood, A.M.; Dowsett, H.J.; Hunter, S.J.; Lunt, D.J.; Pickering, S.J.; Pound, M.J.

    2011-01-01

    Examination of the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP; ~. 3.3 to 3.0. Ma BP) provides an excellent opportunity to test the ability of climate models to reproduce warm climate states, thereby assessing our confidence in model predictions. To do this it is necessary to relate the uncertainty in model simulations of mPWP climate to uncertainties in projections of future climate change. The uncertainties introduced by the model can be estimated through the use of a Perturbed Physics Ensemble (PPE). Developing on the UK Met Office Quantifying Uncertainty in Model Predictions (QUMP) Project, this paper presents the results from an initial investigation using the end members of a PPE in a fully coupled atmosphere-ocean model (HadCM3) running with appropriate mPWP boundary conditions. Prior work has shown that the unperturbed version of HadCM3 may underestimate mPWP sea surface temperatures at higher latitudes. Initial results indicate that neither the low sensitivity nor the high sensitivity simulations produce unequivocally improved mPWP climatology relative to the standard. Whilst the high sensitivity simulation was able to reconcile up to 6 ??C of the data/model mismatch in sea surface temperatures in the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere (relative to the standard simulation), it did not produce a better prediction of global vegetation than the standard simulation. Overall the low sensitivity simulation was degraded compared to the standard and high sensitivity simulations in all aspects of the data/model comparison. The results have shown that a PPE has the potential to explore weaknesses in mPWP modelling simulations which have been identified by geological proxies, but that a 'best fit' simulation will more likely come from a full ensemble in which simulations that contain the strengths of the two end member simulations shown here are combined. ?? 2011 Elsevier B.V.

  10. An iterative inverse method to estimate basal topography and initialize ice flow models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. J. J. van Pelt

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available We evaluate an inverse approach to reconstruct distributed bedrock topography and simultaneously initialize an ice flow model. The inverse method involves an iterative procedure in which an ice dynamical model (PISM is run multiple times over a prescribed period, while being forced with space- and time-dependent climate input. After every iteration bed heights are adjusted using information of the remaining misfit between observed and modeled surface topography. The inverse method is first applied in synthetic experiments with a constant climate forcing to verify convergence and robustness of the approach in three dimensions. In a next step, the inverse approach is applied to Nordenskiöldbreen, Svalbard, forced with height- and time-dependent climate input since 1300 AD. An L-curve stopping criterion is used to prevent overfitting. Validation against radar data reveals a high correlation (up to R = 0.89 between modeled and observed thicknesses. Remaining uncertainties can mainly be ascribed to inaccurate model physics, in particular, uncertainty in the description of sliding. Results demonstrate the applicability of this inverse method to reconstruct the ice thickness distribution of glaciers and ice caps. In addition to reconstructing bedrock topography, the method provides a direct tool to initialize ice flow models for forecasting experiments.

  11. An initialization procedure for assimilating geostationary satellite data into numerical weather prediction models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gal-Chen, T.; Schmidt, B.; Uccellini, L. W.

    1985-01-01

    An attempt was made to offset the limitations of GEO satellites for supplying timely initialization data for numerical weather prediction models (NWP). The NWP considered combined an isentropic representation of the free atmosphere with a sigma-coordinate model for the lower 200 mb. A flux form of the predictive equations described vertical transport interactions at the boundary of the two model domains, thereby accounting for the poor vertical temperature and wind field resolution of GEO satellite data. A variational analysis approach was employed to insert low resolution satellite-sensed temperature data at varying rates. The model vertical resolution was limited to that available from the satellite. Test simulations demonstrated that accuracy increases with the frequency of data updates, e.g., every 0.5-1 hr. The tests also showed that extensive cloud cover negates the capabilities of IR sensors and that microwave sensors will be needed for temperature estimations for 500-1000 mb levels.

  12. Semi-idealized modeling of lightning initiation related to vertical air motion and cloud microphysics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Fei; Zhang, Yijun; Zheng, Dong; Xu, Liangtao; Zhang, Wenjuan; Meng, Qing

    2017-10-01

    A three-dimensional charge-discharge numerical model is used, in a semi-idealized mode, to simulate a thunder-storm cell. Characteristics of the graupel microphysics and vertical air motion associated with the lightning initiation are revealed, which could be useful in retrieving charge strength during lightning when no charge-discharge model is available. The results show that the vertical air motion at the lightning initiation sites ( W ini) has a cubic polynomial correlation with the maximum updraft of the storm cell ( W cell-max), with the adjusted regression coefficient R 2 of approximately 0.97. Meanwhile, the graupel mixing ratio at the lightning initiation sites ( q g-ini) has a linear correlation with the maximum graupel mixing ratio of the storm cell ( q g-cell-max) and the initiation height ( z ini), with the coefficients being 0.86 and 0.85, respectively. These linear correlations are more significant during the middle and late stages of lightning activity. A zero-charge zone, namely, the area with very low net charge density between the main positive and negative charge layers, appears above the area of q g-cell-max and below the upper edge of the graupel region, and is found to be an important area for lightning initiation. Inside the zero-charge zone, large electric intensity forms, and the ratio of q ice (ice crystal mixing ratio) to q g (graupel mixing ratio) illustrates an exponential relationship to q g-ini. These relationships provide valuable clues to more accurately locating the high-risk area of lightning initiation in thunderstorms when only dual-polarization radar data or outputs from numerical models without charging/discharging schemes are available. The results can also help understand the environmental conditions at lightning initiation sites.

  13. Effect of Initial Hydraulic Conditions on Capillary Rise in a Porous Medium: Pore-Network Modeling

    KAUST Repository

    Joekar-Niasar, V.

    2012-01-01

    The dynamics of capillary rise in a porous medium have been mostly studied in initially dry systems. As initial saturation and initial hydraulic conditions in many natural and industrial porous media can be variable, it is important to investigate the influence of initial conditions on the dynamics of the process. In this study, using dynamic pore-network modeling, we simulated capillary rise in a porous medium for different initial saturations (and consequently initial capillary pressures). Furthermore, the effect of hydraulic connectivity of the wetting phase in corners on the height and velocity of the wetting front was studied. Our simulation results show that there is a trade-off between capillary forces and trapping due to snap-off, which leads to a nonlinear dependence of wetting front velocity on initial saturation at the pore scale. This analysis may provide a possible answer to the experimental observations in the literature showing a non-monotonic dependency between initial saturation and the macroscopic front velocity. © Soil Science Society of America.

  14. Modulation of Soil Initial State on WRF Model Performance Over China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xue, Haile; Jin, Qinjian; Yi, Bingqi; Mullendore, Gretchen L.; Zheng, Xiaohui; Jin, Hongchun

    2017-11-01

    The soil state (e.g., temperature and moisture) in a mesoscale numerical prediction model is typically initialized by reanalysis or analysis data that may be subject to large bias. Such bias may lead to unrealistic land-atmosphere interactions. This study shows that the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) dramatically underestimates soil temperature and overestimates soil moisture over most parts of China in the first (0-10 cm) and second (10-25 cm) soil layers compared to in situ observations in July 2013. A correction based on the global optimal dual kriging is employed to correct CFSR bias in soil temperature and moisture using in situ observations. To investigate the impacts of the corrected soil state on model forecasts, two numerical model simulations—a control run with CFSR soil state and a disturbed run with the corrected soil state—were conducted using the Weather Research and Forecasting model. All the simulations are initiated 4 times per day and run 48 h. Model results show that the corrected soil state, for example, warmer and drier surface over the most parts of China, can enhance evaporation over wet regions, which changes the overlying atmospheric temperature and moisture. The changes of the lifting condensation level, level of free convection, and water transport due to corrected soil state favor precipitation over wet regions, while prohibiting precipitation over dry regions. Moreover, diagnoses indicate that the remote moisture flux convergence plays a dominant role in the precipitation changes over the wet regions.

  15. Crack initiation modeling of a directionally-solidified nickel-base superalloy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gordon, Ali Page

    crystal plasticity model was used to simulate the material behavior in the L and T orientations. The constitutive model was implemented in ABAQUS and a parameter estimation scheme was developed to obtain the material constants. A physically-based model was developed for correlating crack initiation life based on the experimental life data and predictions are made using the crack initiation model. Assuming a unique relationship between the damage fraction and cycle fraction with respect to cycles to crack initiation for each damage mode, the total crack initiation life has been represented in terms of the individual damage components (fatigue, creep-fatigue, creep, and oxidation-fatigue) observed at the end state of crack initiation.

  16. Evaluating the Credibility of Transport Processes in the Global Modeling Initiative 3D Model Simulations of Ozone Recovery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strahan, Susan E.; Douglass, Anne R.

    2003-01-01

    The Global Modeling Initiative has integrated two 35-year simulations of an ozone recovery scenario with an offline chemistry and transport model using two different meteorological inputs. Physically based diagnostics, derived from satellite and aircraft data sets, are described and then used to evaluate the realism of temperature and transport processes in the simulations. Processes evaluated include barrier formation in the subtropics and polar regions, and extratropical wave-driven transport. Some diagnostics are especially relevant to simulation of lower stratospheric ozone, but most are applicable to any stratospheric simulation. The temperature evaluation, which is relevant to gas phase chemical reactions, showed that both sets of meteorological fields have near climatological values at all latitudes and seasons at 30 hPa and below. Both simulations showed weakness in upper stratospheric wave driving. The simulation using input from a general circulation model (GMI(sub GCM)) showed a very good residual circulation in the tropics and northern hemisphere. The simulation with input from a data assimilation system (GMI(sub DAS)) performed better in the midlatitudes than at high latitudes. Neither simulation forms a realistic barrier at the vortex edge, leading to uncertainty in the fate of ozone-depleted vortex air. Overall, tracer transport in the offline GMI(sub GCM) has greater fidelity throughout the stratosphere than the GMI(sub DAS).

  17. Modeling, simulation, and optimal initiation planning for needle insertion into the liver.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharifi Sedeh, R; Ahmadian, M T; Janabi-Sharifi, F

    2010-04-01

    Needle insertion simulation and planning systems (SPSs) will play an important role in diminishing inappropriate insertions into soft tissues and resultant complications. Difficulties in SPS development are due in large part to the computational requirements of the extensive calculations in finite element (FE) models of tissue. For clinical feasibility, the computational speed of SPSs must be improved. At the same time, a realistic model of tissue properties that reflects large and velocity-dependent deformations must be employed. The purpose of this study is to address the aforementioned difficulties by presenting a cost-effective SPS platform for needle insertions into the liver. The study was constrained to planar (2D) cases, but can be extended to 3D insertions. To accommodate large and velocity-dependent deformations, a hyperviscoelastic model was devised to produce an FE model of liver tissue. Material constants were identified by a genetic algorithm applied to the experimental results of unconfined compressions of bovine liver. The approach for SPS involves B-spline interpolations of sample data generated from the FE model of liver. Two interpolation-based models are introduced to approximate puncture times and to approximate the coordinates of FE model nodes interacting with the needle tip as a function of the needle initiation pose; the latter was also a function of postpuncture time. A real-time simulation framework is provided, and its computational benefit is highlighted by comparing its performance with the FE method. A planning algorithm for optimal needle initiation was designed, and its effectiveness was evaluated by analyzing its accuracy in reaching a random set of targets at different resolutions of sampled data using the FE model. The proposed simulation framework can easily surpass haptic rates (>500 Hz), even with a high pose resolution level ( approximately 30). The computational time required to update the coordinates of the node at the

  18. The Ozone Budget in the Upper Troposphere from Global Modeling Initiative (GMI)Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriquez, J.; Duncan, Bryan N.; Logan, Jennifer A.

    2006-01-01

    Ozone concentrations in the upper troposphere are influenced by in-situ production, long-range tropospheric transport, and influx of stratospheric ozone, as well as by photochemical removal. Since ozone is an important greenhouse gas in this region, it is particularly important to understand how it will respond to changes in anthropogenic emissions and changes in stratospheric ozone fluxes.. This response will be determined by the relative balance of the different production, loss and transport processes. Ozone concentrations calculated by models will differ depending on the adopted meteorological fields, their chemical scheme, anthropogenic emissions, and treatment of the stratospheric influx. We performed simulations using the chemical-transport model from the Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) with meteorological fields from (It)h e NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) general circulation model (GCM), (2) the atmospheric GCM from NASA's Global Modeling and Assimilation Office(GMAO), and (3) assimilated winds from GMAO . These simulations adopt the same chemical mechanism and emissions, and adopt the Synthetic Ozone (SYNOZ) approach for treating the influx of stratospheric ozone -. In addition, we also performed simulations for a coupled troposphere-stratosphere model with a subset of the same winds. Simulations were done for both 4degx5deg and 2degx2.5deg resolution. Model results are being tested through comparison with a suite of atmospheric observations. In this presentation, we diagnose the ozone budget in the upper troposphere utilizing the suite of GMI simulations, to address the sensitivity of this budget to: a) the different meteorological fields used; b) the adoption of the SYNOZ boundary condition versus inclusion of a full stratosphere; c) model horizontal resolution. Model results are compared to observations to determine biases in particular simulations; by examining these comparisons in conjunction with the derived budgets, we may pinpoint

  19. Using Green's Functions to initialize and adjust a global, eddying ocean biogeochemistry general circulation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brix, H.; Menemenlis, D.; Hill, C.; Dutkiewicz, S.; Jahn, O.; Wang, D.; Bowman, K.; Zhang, H.

    2015-11-01

    The NASA Carbon Monitoring System (CMS) Flux Project aims to attribute changes in the atmospheric accumulation of carbon dioxide to spatially resolved fluxes by utilizing the full suite of NASA data, models, and assimilation capabilities. For the oceanic part of this project, we introduce ECCO2-Darwin, a new ocean biogeochemistry general circulation model based on combining the following pre-existing components: (i) a full-depth, eddying, global-ocean configuration of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model (MITgcm), (ii) an adjoint-method-based estimate of ocean circulation from the Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean, Phase II (ECCO2) project, (iii) the MIT ecosystem model "Darwin", and (iv) a marine carbon chemistry model. Air-sea gas exchange coefficients and initial conditions of dissolved inorganic carbon, alkalinity, and oxygen are adjusted using a Green's Functions approach in order to optimize modeled air-sea CO2 fluxes. Data constraints include observations of carbon dioxide partial pressure (pCO2) for 2009-2010, global air-sea CO2 flux estimates, and the seasonal cycle of the Takahashi et al. (2009) Atlas. The model sensitivity experiments (or Green's Functions) include simulations that start from different initial conditions as well as experiments that perturb air-sea gas exchange parameters and the ratio of particulate inorganic to organic carbon. The Green's Functions approach yields a linear combination of these sensitivity experiments that minimizes model-data differences. The resulting initial conditions and gas exchange coefficients are then used to integrate the ECCO2-Darwin model forward. Despite the small number (six) of control parameters, the adjusted simulation is significantly closer to the data constraints (37% cost function reduction, i.e., reduction in the model-data difference, relative to the baseline simulation) and to independent observations (e.g., alkalinity). The adjusted air-sea gas

  20. A model of school problems, academic failure, alcohol initiation, and the relationship to adult heroin injection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trenz, Rebecca C; Harrell, Paul; Scherer, Michael; Mancha, Brent E; Latimer, William W

    2012-08-01

    The current study uses structural equation modeling to investigate factors associated with alcohol initiation and injection heroin use. Baseline data from the NEURO-HIV Epidemiologic Study in Baltimore, Maryland, were used. Participants were 404 injection heroin users (M(age) = 32.72) with a history of regular injection in their lifetime. Latent variables were created for self-reported school problems and academic failure. The final model indicated that greater school problems were associated with earlier alcohol initiation (ß = -0.22, p failure was directly related to greater frequency of recent heroin injection (ß = 0.15, p < .01). The results expand research investigating the relationship between adolescent behavior and illicit drug use in adulthood.

  1. TWO-STEP ALGORITHM OF TRAINING INITIALIZATION FOR ACOUSTIC MODELS BASED ON DEEP NEURAL NETWORKS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. P. Medennikov

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a two-step initialization algorithm for training of acoustic models based on deep neural networks. The algorithm is focused on reducing the impact of the non-speech segments on the acoustic model training. The idea of the proposed algorithm is to reduce the percentage of non-speech examples in the training set. Effectiveness evaluation of the algorithm has been carried out on the example of English spontaneous telephone speech recognition (Switchboard. The application of the proposed algorithm has led to 3% relative word error rate reduction, compared with the training initialization by restricted Boltzmann machines. The results presented in the paper can be applied in the development of automatic speech recognition systems.

  2. Structure-Function Model for Kissing Loop Interactions That Initiate Dimerization of Ty1 RNA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gamache, Eric R; Doh, Jung H; Ritz, Justin; Laederach, Alain; Bellaousov, Stanislav; Mathews, David H; Curcio, M Joan

    2017-04-26

    The genomic RNA of the retrotransposon Ty1 is packaged as a dimer into virus-like particles. The 5' terminus of Ty1 RNA harbors cis -acting sequences required for translation initiation, packaging and initiation of reverse transcription (TIPIRT). To identify RNA motifs involved in dimerization and packaging, a structural model of the TIPIRT domain in vitro was developed from single-nucleotide resolution RNA structural data. In general agreement with previous models, the first 326 nucleotides of Ty1 RNA form a pseudoknot with a 7-bp stem (S1), a 1-nucleotide interhelical loop and an 8-bp stem (S2) that delineate two long, structured loops. Nucleotide substitutions that disrupt either pseudoknot stem greatly reduced helper-Ty1-mediated retrotransposition of a mini-Ty1, but only mutations in S2 destabilized mini-Ty1 RNA in cis and helper-Ty1 RNA in trans. Nested in different loops of the pseudoknot are two hairpins with complementary 7-nucleotide motifs at their apices. Nucleotide substitutions in either motif also reduced retrotransposition and destabilized mini- and helper-Ty1 RNA. Compensatory mutations that restore base-pairing in the S2 stem or between the hairpins rescued retrotransposition and RNA stability in cis and trans. These data inform a model whereby a Ty1 RNA kissing complex with two intermolecular kissing-loop interactions initiates dimerization and packaging.

  3. Structure-Function Model for Kissing Loop Interactions That Initiate Dimerization of Ty1 RNA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eric R. Gamache

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available The genomic RNA of the retrotransposon Ty1 is packaged as a dimer into virus-like particles. The 5′ terminus of Ty1 RNA harbors cis-acting sequences required for translation initiation, packaging and initiation of reverse transcription (TIPIRT. To identify RNA motifs involved in dimerization and packaging, a structural model of the TIPIRT domain in vitro was developed from single-nucleotide resolution RNA structural data. In general agreement with previous models, the first 326 nucleotides of Ty1 RNA form a pseudoknot with a 7-bp stem (S1, a 1-nucleotide interhelical loop and an 8-bp stem (S2 that delineate two long, structured loops. Nucleotide substitutions that disrupt either pseudoknot stem greatly reduced helper-Ty1-mediated retrotransposition of a mini-Ty1, but only mutations in S2 destabilized mini-Ty1 RNA in cis and helper-Ty1 RNA in trans. Nested in different loops of the pseudoknot are two hairpins with complementary 7-nucleotide motifs at their apices. Nucleotide substitutions in either motif also reduced retrotransposition and destabilized mini- and helper-Ty1 RNA. Compensatory mutations that restore base-pairing in the S2 stem or between the hairpins rescued retrotransposition and RNA stability in cis and trans. These data inform a model whereby a Ty1 RNA kissing complex with two intermolecular kissing-loop interactions initiates dimerization and packaging.

  4. Initiative-taking, Improvisational Capability and Business Model Innovation in Emerging Market

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cao, Yangfeng

    . Many prior researches have shown that the foreign subsidiaries play important role in shaping the overall strategy of the parent company. However, little is known about how subsidiary specifically facilitates business model innovation (BMI) in emerging markets. Adopting the method of comparative......Business model innovation plays a very important role in developing competitive advantage when multinational small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) from developed country enter into emerging markets because of the large contextual distances or gaps between the emerging and developed economies...... innovation in emerging markets. We find that high initiative-taking and strong improvisational capability can accelerate the business model innovation. Our research contributes to the literatures on international and strategic entrepreneurship....

  5. Testing variational estimation of process parameters and initial conditions of an earth system model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simon Blessing

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available We present a variational assimilation system around a coarse resolution Earth System Model (ESM and apply it for estimating initial conditions and parameters of the model. The system is based on derivative information that is efficiently provided by the ESM's adjoint, which has been generated through automatic differentiation of the model's source code. In our variational approach, the length of the feasible assimilation window is limited by the size of the domain in control space over which the approximation by the derivative is valid. This validity domain is reduced by non-smooth process representations. We show that in this respect the ocean component is less critical than the atmospheric component. We demonstrate how the feasible assimilation window can be extended to several weeks by modifying the implementation of specific process representations and by switching off processes such as precipitation.

  6. Initiative-taking, Improvisational Capability and Business Model Innovation in Emerging Market

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cao, Yangfeng

    Business model innovation plays a very important role in developing competitive advantage when multinational small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) from developed country enter into emerging markets because of the large contextual distances or gaps between the emerging and developed economies....... Many prior researches have shown that the foreign subsidiaries play important role in shaping the overall strategy of the parent company. However, little is known about how subsidiary specifically facilitates business model innovation (BMI) in emerging markets. Adopting the method of comparative...... and longitudinal case study, we tracked the BMI processes of four SMEs from Denmark operating in China. Using resource-based view (RBV), we develop one theoretical framework which indicates that initiative-taking and improvisational capability of subsidiary are the two primary facilitators of business model...

  7. A mesoscopic reaction rate model for shock initiation of multi-component PBX explosives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Y R; Duan, Z P; Zhang, Z Y; Ou, Z C; Huang, F L

    2016-11-05

    The primary goal of this research is to develop a three-term mesoscopic reaction rate model that consists of a hot-spot ignition, a low-pressure slow burning and a high-pressure fast reaction terms for shock initiation of multi-component Plastic Bonded Explosives (PBX). Thereinto, based on the DZK hot-spot model for a single-component PBX explosive, the hot-spot ignition term as well as its reaction rate is obtained through a "mixing rule" of the explosive components; new expressions for both the low-pressure slow burning term and the high-pressure fast reaction term are also obtained by establishing the relationships between the reaction rate of the multi-component PBX explosive and that of its explosive components, based on the low-pressure slow burning term and the high-pressure fast reaction term of a mesoscopic reaction rate model. Furthermore, for verification, the new reaction rate model is incorporated into the DYNA2D code to simulate numerically the shock initiation process of the PBXC03 and the PBXC10 multi-component PBX explosives, and the numerical results of the pressure histories at different Lagrange locations in explosive are found to be in good agreements with previous experimental data. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. A structural model of the E. coli PhoB Dimer in the transcription initiation complex

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tung Chang-Shung

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background There exist > 78,000 proteins and/or nucleic acids structures that were determined experimentally. Only a small portion of these structures corresponds to those of protein complexes. While homology modeling is able to exploit knowledge-based potentials of side-chain rotomers and backbone motifs to infer structures for new proteins, no such general method exists to extend our understanding of protein interaction motifs to novel protein complexes. Results We use a Motif Binding Geometries (MBG approach, to infer the structure of a protein complex from the database of complexes of homologous proteins taken from other contexts (such as the helix-turn-helix motif binding double stranded DNA, and demonstrate its utility on one of the more important regulatory complexes in biology, that of the RNA polymerase initiating transcription under conditions of phosphate starvation. The modeled PhoB/RNAP/σ-factor/DNA complex is stereo-chemically reasonable, has sufficient interfacial Solvent Excluded Surface Areas (SESAs to provide adequate binding strength, is physically meaningful for transcription regulation, and is consistent with a variety of known experimental constraints. Conclusions Based on a straightforward and easy to comprehend concept, "proteins and protein domains that fold similarly could interact similarly", a structural model of the PhoB dimer in the transcription initiation complex has been developed. This approach could be extended to enable structural modeling and prediction of other bio-molecular complexes. Just as models of individual proteins provide insight into molecular recognition, catalytic mechanism, and substrate specificity, models of protein complexes will provide understanding into the combinatorial rules of cellular regulation and signaling.

  9. Genetic Algorithms for Models Optimization for Recognition of Translation Initiation Sites

    KAUST Repository

    Mora, Arturo Magana

    2011-06-01

    This work uses genetic algorithms (GA) to reduce the complexity of the artificial neural networks (ANNs) and decision trees (DTs) for the accurate recognition of translation initiation sites (TISs) in Arabidopsis Thaliana. The Arabidopsis data was extracted directly from genomic DNA sequences. Methods derived in this work resulted in both reduced complexity of the predictors, as well as in improvement in prediction accuracy (generalization). Optimization through use of GA is generally a computationally intensive task. One of the approaches to overcome this problem is to use parallelization of code that implements GA, thus allowing computation on multiprocessing infrastructure. However, further improvement in performance GA implementation could be achieved through modification done to GA basic operations such as selection, crossover and mutation. In this work we explored two such improvements, namely evolutive mutation and GA-Simplex crossover operation. In this thesis we studied the benefit of these modifications on the problem of TISs recognition. Compared to the non-modified GA approach, we reduced the number of weights in the resulting model\\'s neural network component by 51% and the number of nodes in the model\\'s DTs component by 97% whilst improving the model\\'s accuracy at the same time. Separately, we developed another methodology for reducing the complexity of prediction models by optimizing the composition of training data subsets in bootstrap aggregation (bagging) methodology. This optimization is achieved by applying a new GA-based bagging methodology in order to optimize the composition of each of the training data subsets. This approach has shown in our test cases to considerably enhance the accuracy of the TIS prediction model compared to the original bagging methodology. Although these methods are applied to the problem of accurate prediction of TISs we believe that these methodologies have a potential for wider scope of application.

  10. Using Deep Learning for Targeted Data Selection, Improving Satellite Observation Utilization for Model Initialization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Y. J.; Bonfanti, C. E.; Trailovic, L.; Etherton, B.; Govett, M.; Stewart, J.

    2017-12-01

    At present, a fraction of all satellite observations are ultimately used for model assimilation. The satellite data assimilation process is computationally expensive and data are often reduced in resolution to allow timely incorporation into the forecast. This problem is only exacerbated by the recent launch of Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES)-16 satellite and future satellites providing several order of magnitude increase in data volume. At the NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL) we are researching the use of machine learning the improve the initial selection of satellite data to be used in the model assimilation process. In particular, we are investigating the use of deep learning. Deep learning is being applied to many image processing and computer vision problems with great success. Through our research, we are using convolutional neural network to find and mark regions of interest (ROI) to lead to intelligent extraction of observations from satellite observation systems. These targeted observations will be used to improve the quality of data selected for model assimilation and ultimately improve the impact of satellite data on weather forecasts. Our preliminary efforts to identify the ROI's are focused in two areas: applying and comparing state-of-art convolutional neural network models using the analysis data from the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecast System (GFS) weather model, and using these results as a starting point to optimize convolution neural network model for pattern recognition on the higher resolution water vapor data from GOES-WEST and other satellite. This presentation will provide an introduction to our convolutional neural network model to identify and process these ROI's, along with the challenges of data preparation, training the model, and parameter optimization.

  11. Incremental change or initial differences? Testing two models of marital deterioration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lavner, Justin A; Bradbury, Thomas N; Karney, Benjamin R

    2012-08-01

    Most couples begin marriage intent on maintaining a fulfilling relationship, but some newlyweds soon struggle, and others continue to experience high levels of satisfaction. Do these diverse outcomes result from an incremental process that unfolds over time, as prevailing models suggest, or are they a manifestation of initial differences that are largely evident at the start of the marriage? Using 8 waves of data collected over the first 4 years of marriage (N = 502 spouses, or 251 newlywed marriages), we tested these competing perspectives first by identifying 3 qualitatively distinct relationship satisfaction trajectory groups and then by determining the extent to which spouses in these groups were differentiated on the basis of (a) initial scores and (b) 4-year changes in a set of established predictor variables, including relationship problems, aggression, attributions, stress, and self-esteem. The majority of spouses exhibited high, stable satisfaction over the first 4 years of marriage, whereas declining satisfaction was isolated among couples with relatively low initial satisfaction. Across all predictor variables, initial values afforded stronger discrimination of outcome groups than did rates of change in these variables. Thus, readily measured initial differences are potent antecedents of relationship deterioration, and studies are now needed to clarify the specific ways in which initial indices of risk come to influence changes in spouses' judgments of relationship satisfaction. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved.

  12. Transitioning Enhanced Land Surface Initialization and Model Verification Capabilities to the Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Case, Jonathan L.; Mungai, John; Sakwa, Vincent; Zavodsky, Bradley T.; Srikishen, Jayanthi; Limaye, Ashutosh; Blankenship, Clay B.

    2016-01-01

    Flooding, severe weather, and drought are key forecasting challenges for the Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD), based in Nairobi, Kenya. Atmospheric processes leading to convection, excessive precipitation and/or prolonged drought can be strongly influenced by land cover, vegetation, and soil moisture content, especially during anomalous conditions and dry/wet seasonal transitions. It is thus important to represent accurately land surface state variables (green vegetation fraction, soil moisture, and soil temperature) in Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models. The NASA SERVIR and the Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) programs in Huntsville, AL have established a working partnership with KMD to enhance its regional modeling capabilities. SPoRT and SERVIR are providing experimental land surface initialization datasets and model verification capabilities for capacity building at KMD. To support its forecasting operations, KMD is running experimental configurations of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF; Skamarock et al. 2008) model on a 12-km/4-km nested regional domain over eastern Africa, incorporating the land surface datasets provided by NASA SPoRT and SERVIR. SPoRT, SERVIR, and KMD participated in two training sessions in March 2014 and June 2015 to foster the collaboration and use of unique land surface datasets and model verification capabilities. Enhanced regional modeling capabilities have the potential to improve guidance in support of daily operations and high-impact weather and climate outlooks over Eastern Africa. For enhanced land-surface initialization, the NASA Land Information System (LIS) is run over Eastern Africa at 3-km resolution, providing real-time land surface initialization data in place of interpolated global model soil moisture and temperature data available at coarser resolutions. Additionally, real-time green vegetation fraction (GVF) composites from the Suomi-NPP VIIRS instrument is being incorporated

  13. Toward Verifying Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions with the CMAQ Model: Motivation, Model Description and Initial Simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liu, Zhen; Bambha, Ray P.; Pinto, Joseph P.; Zeng, Tao; Boylan, Jim; Huang, Maoyi; Lei, Huimin; Zhao, Chun; Liu, Shishi; Mao, Jiafu; Schwalm, Christopher R.; Shi, Xiaoying; Wei, Yaxing; Michelsen, Hope A.

    2014-03-14

    Motivated by the urgent need for emission verification of CO2 and other greenhouse gases, we have developed regional CO2 simulation with CMAQ over the contiguous U.S. Model sensitivity experiments have been performed using three different sets of inputs for net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and two fossil fuel emission inventories, to understand the roles of fossil fuel emissions, atmosphere-biosphere exchange and transport in regulating the spatial and diurnal variability of CO2 near the surface, and to characterize the well-known ‘signal-to-noise’ problem, i.e. the interference from the biosphere on the interpretation of atmospheric CO2 observations. It is found that differences in the meteorological conditions for different urban areas strongly contribute to the contrast in concentrations. The uncertainty of NEE, as measured by the difference among the three different NEE inputs, has notable impact on regional distribution of CO2 simulated by CMAQ. Larger NEE uncertainty and impact are found over eastern U.S. urban areas than along the western coast. A comparison with tower CO2 measurements at Boulder Atmospheric Observatory (BAO) shows that the CMAQ model using hourly varied and high-resolution CO2 emission from the Vulcan inventory and CarbonTracker optimized NEE reasonably reproduce the observed diurnal profile, whereas switching to different NEE inputs significantly degrades the model performance. Spatial distribution of CO2 is found to correlate with NOx, SO2 and CO, due to their similarity in emission sources and transport processes. These initial results from CMAQ demonstrate the power of a state-of-the art CTM in helping interpret CO2 observations and verify fossil fuel emissions. The ability to simulate CO2 in CMAQ will also facilitate investigations of the utility of traditionally regulated pollutants and other species as tracers to CO2 source attribution.

  14. Coupling model of aerobic waste degradation considering temperature, initial moisture content and air injection volume.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Jun; Liu, Lei; Ge, Sai; Xue, Qiang; Li, Jiangshan; Wan, Yong; Hui, Xinminnan

    2018-03-01

    A quantitative description of aerobic waste degradation is important in evaluating landfill waste stability and economic management. This research aimed to develop a coupling model to predict the degree of aerobic waste degradation. On the basis of the first-order kinetic equation and the law of conservation of mass, we first developed the coupling model of aerobic waste degradation that considered temperature, initial moisture content and air injection volume to simulate and predict the chemical oxygen demand in the leachate. Three different laboratory experiments on aerobic waste degradation were simulated to test the model applicability. Parameter sensitivity analyses were conducted to evaluate the reliability of parameters. The coupling model can simulate aerobic waste degradation, and the obtained simulation agreed with the corresponding results of the experiment. Comparison of the experiment and simulation demonstrated that the coupling model is a new approach to predict aerobic waste degradation and can be considered as the basis for selecting the economic air injection volume and appropriate management in the future.

  15. Cap- and initiator tRNA-dependent initiation of TYMV polyprotein synthesis by ribosomes: Evaluation of the Trojan horse model for TYMV RNA translation

    OpenAIRE

    Matsuda, Daiki; Dreher, Theo W.

    2007-01-01

    Turnip yellow mosaic virus (TYMV) RNA directs the translation of two overlapping open reading frames. Competing models have been previously published to explain ribosome access to the downstream polyprotein cistron. The Trojan horse model, based on cell-free experiments, proposes noncanonical cap-independent initiation in which the 3′-terminal tRNA-like structure (TLS) functionally replaces initiator tRNA, and the valine bound to the TLS becomes cis-incorporated into viral protein. The initia...

  16. Where does subduction initiate and die? Insights from global convection models with continental drift

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ulvrova, Martina; Williams, Simon; Coltice, Nicolas; Tackley, Paul

    2017-04-01

    Plate tectonics is a prominent feature on Earth. Together with the underlying convecting mantle, plates form a self-organized system. In order to understand the dynamics of the coupled system, subduction of the lithospheric plates plays the key role since it links the exterior with the interior of the planet. In this work we study subduction initiation and death with respect to the position of the continental rafts. Using thermo-mechanical numerical calculations we investigate global convection models featuring self-consistent plate tectonics and continental drifting employing a pseudo-plastic rheology and testing the effect of a free surface. We consider uncompressible mantle convection in Boussinesq approximation that is basaly and internaly heated. Our calculations indicate that the presence of the continents alterns stress distribution within a certain distance from the margins. Intra-oceanic subudction initiation is favorable during super-continent cycles while the initiation at passive continental margin prevails when continents are dispersed. The location of subduction initiation is additionally controlled by the lithospheric strength. Very weak lithosphere results in domination of intra-oceanic subduction initiation. The subduction zones die more easily in the vicinity of the continent due to the strong rheological contrast between the oceanic and continental lithosphere. In order to compare our findings with subduction positions through time recorded on Earth, we analyse subduction birth in global plate reconstruction back to 410 My.

  17. Experimental and modeling study on pyrolysis of n-decane initiated by nitromethane

    KAUST Repository

    Jia, Zhenjian

    2016-01-15

    Initiator could accelerate the rate of hydrocarbon pyrolysis and reduce the required material temperatures for a hypersonic aircraft heat exchanger/reactor. Nitroalkanes were proposed as the effective initiator because of the lower CN bond dissociation energy. In order to investigate the initiation mechanism of nitroalkanes on hydrocarbon pyrolysis, the pyrolysis of n-decane, nitromethane and their binary mixture were carried out at 30, 150 and 760 Torr in a flow reactor with synchrotron vacuum ultraviolet photoionization mass spectrometry (SVUV-PIMS). The identified and quantified pyrolysis species include C1C2 alkanes, C2C10 alkenes, C3C6 dialkenes, C2C3 alkynes, nitrogen oxides such as NO and NO2, benzene, and radicals including CH3, C3H3, and C3H5, which shed light on the mechanism of n-decane and nitromethane pyrolysis, as well as the interactions of these two fuels. The experimental results indicate that the addition of nitromethane decreases the initial decomposition temperature of n-decane, and a stronger promotion effect could be obtained as the experimental pressure increases. The distributions of alkanes, alkenes, dialkenes, alkynes and benzene are also influenced by the addition of nitromethane. A detailed kinetic model with 266 species and 1648 reactions was developed and validated against the mole fraction profiles of reactants, major products and important intermediates during the pyrolysis of each fuel and their binary mixture. The satisfactory model prediction to the experimental measurements permits the analysis of the kinetic effect of nitromethane initiation on the pyrolysis of n-decane. So that, the increase of the conversion rate at a lower temperature, the selectivity of decomposition products, and reduction of benzene formation are better understood.

  18. Models of Disease Vector Control: When Can Aggressive Initial Intervention Lower Long-Term Cost?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oduro, Bismark; Grijalva, Mario J; Just, Winfried

    2018-02-05

    Insecticide spraying of housing units is an important control measure for vector-borne infections such as Chagas disease. As vectors may invade both from other infested houses and sylvatic areas and as the effectiveness of insecticide wears off over time, the dynamics of (re)infestations can be approximated by [Formula: see text]-type models with a reservoir, where housing units are treated as hosts, and insecticide spraying corresponds to removal of hosts. Here, we investigate three ODE-based models of this type. We describe a dual-rate effect where an initially very high spraying rate can push the system into a region of the state space with low endemic levels of infestation that can be maintained in the long run at relatively moderate cost, while in the absence of an aggressive initial intervention the same average cost would only allow a much less significant reduction in long-term infestation levels. We determine some sufficient and some necessary conditions under which this effect occurs and show that it is robust in models that incorporate some heterogeneity in the relevant properties of housing units.

  19. A STUDY ON LIMITATION OF GOVERNMENT INITIATIVE MODEL FOR ALTERNATIVE FUEL VEHICLE (AFV PROMOTION IN CHINA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Byunghun Choi

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Chinese responsibility for reducing Greenhouse Gas or carbon dioxide emission increases continuously. Chinese government suggested two targets; Alternative Fuel Vehicle output volume 500 thousand and AFV market share 5% by the end of 2011. However any of two targets did not come true. Therefore this study accessed the question, ‘why Chinese government initiative model for AFV promotion has been so poor?’ This study reviewed the transition process for AFV policies in China and made a structural analysis for three key policies since 2009. As a result the number of articles for related industries or factor endowments was relatively more than firm strategy or demand conditions. Also this study accessed the AFV strategy of Six SOEs from the perspective of social responsibility. Six SOEs have more concentrated on electric vehicle rather than hybrid vehicle with following the government leadership. However major EV or HEV models of them mostly were made by Joint Ventures being under control of foreign makers and the JVs have actually controlled over AFV business. So the limitation of Chinese government initiative model resulted from supplier-centric approach with targeting for public transportation and institution consumer, and it caused a failure to create the demand conditions of general customers.

  20. Conditional-mean initialization using neighboring objects in deformable model segmentation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeong, Ja-Yeon; Stough, Joshua V.; Marron, J. Steve; Pizer, Stephen M.

    2008-03-01

    Most model-based segmentation methods find a target object in a new image by constructing an objective function and optimizing it using a standard minimization algorithm. In general, the objective function has two penalty terms: 1) for deforming a template model and 2) for mismatch between the trained image intensities relative to the template model and the observed image intensities relative to the deformed template model in the target image. While it is difficult to establish an objective function with a global minimum at the desired segmentation result, even such an objective function is typically non-convex due to the complexity of the intensity patterns and the many structures surrounding the target object. Thus, it is critical that the optimization starts at a point close to the global minimum of the objective function in deformable model-based segmentation framework. For a segmentation method in maximum a posteriori framework a good objective function can be obtained by learning the probability distributions of the population shape deformations and their associated image intensities because each penalty term can be simplified to a squared function of some distance metric defined in the shape space. The mean shape and intensities of the learned probability distributions also provide a good initialization for segmentation. However, a major concern in estimating the shape prior is the stability of the estimated shape distributions from given training samples because the feature space of a shape model is usually very high dimensional while the number of training samples is limited. A lot of effort in that regard have been made to attain a stable estimation of shape probability distribution. In this paper, we describe our approach to stably estimate a shape probability distribution when good segmentations of objects adjacent to the target object are available. Our approach is to use a conditional shape probability distribution (CSPD) to take into account in the

  1. Shock Initiation Experiments with Ignition and Growth Modeling on the HMX-Based Explosive LX-14

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vandersall, Kevin S.; Dehaven, Martin R.; Strickland, Shawn L.; Tarver, Craig M.; Springer, H. Keo; Cowan, Matt R.

    2017-06-01

    Shock initiation experiments on the HMX-based explosive LX-14 were performed to obtain in-situ pressure gauge data, characterize the run-distance-to-detonation behavior, and provide a basis for Ignition and Growth reactive flow modeling. A 101 mm diameter gas gun was utilized to initiate the explosive charges with manganin piezoresistive pressure gauge packages placed between sample disks pressed to different densities ( 1.57 or 1.83 g/cm3 that corresponds to 85 or 99% of theoretical maximum density (TMD), respectively). The shock sensitivity was found to increase with decreasing density as expected. Ignition and Growth model parameters were derived that yielded reasonable agreement with the experimental data at both initial densities. The shock sensitivity at the tested densities will be compared to prior work published on other HMX-based formulations. This work performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344. This work was funded in part by the Joint DoD-DOE Munitions Program.

  2. Near-atomic structural model for bacterial DNA replication initiation complex and its functional insights.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shimizu, Masahiro; Noguchi, Yasunori; Sakiyama, Yukari; Kawakami, Hironori; Katayama, Tsutomu; Takada, Shoji

    2016-12-13

    Upon DNA replication initiation in Escherichia coli, the initiator protein DnaA forms higher-order complexes with the chromosomal origin oriC and a DNA-bending protein IHF. Although tertiary structures of DnaA and IHF have previously been elucidated, dynamic structures of oriC-DnaA-IHF complexes remain unknown. Here, combining computer simulations with biochemical assays, we obtained models at almost-atomic resolution for the central part of the oriC-DnaA-IHF complex. This complex can be divided into three subcomplexes; the left and right subcomplexes include pentameric DnaA bound in a head-to-tail manner and the middle subcomplex contains only a single DnaA. In the left and right subcomplexes, DnaA ATPases associated with various cellular activities (AAA+) domain III formed helices with specific structural differences in interdomain orientations, provoking a bend in the bound DNA. In the left subcomplex a continuous DnaA chain exists, including insertion of IHF into the DNA looping, consistent with the DNA unwinding function of the complex. The intervening spaces in those subcomplexes are crucial for DNA unwinding and loading of DnaB helicases. Taken together, this model provides a reasonable near-atomic level structural solution of the initiation complex, including the dynamic conformations and spatial arrangements of DnaA subcomplexes.

  3. Modeling Three-Dimensional Shock Initiation of PBX 9501 in ALE3D

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Leininger, L; Springer, H K; Mace, J; Mas, E

    2008-07-08

    A recent SMIS (Specific Munitions Impact Scenario) experimental series performed at Los Alamos National Laboratory has provided 3-dimensional shock initiation behavior of the HMX-based heterogeneous high explosive, PBX 9501. A series of finite element impact calculations have been performed in the ALE3D [1] hydrodynamic code and compared to the SMIS results to validate and study code predictions. These SMIS tests used a powder gun to shoot scaled NATO standard fragments into a cylinder of PBX 9501, which has a PMMA case and a steel impact cover. This SMIS real-world shot scenario creates a unique test-bed because (1) SMIS tests facilitate the investigation of 3D Shock to Detonation Transition (SDT) within the context of a considerable suite of diagnostics, and (2) many of the fragments arrive at the impact plate off-center and at an angle of impact. A particular goal of these model validation experiments is to demonstrate the predictive capability of the ALE3D implementation of the Tarver-Lee Ignition and Growth reactive flow model [2] within a fully 3-dimensional regime of SDT. The 3-dimensional Arbitrary Lagrange Eulerian (ALE) hydrodynamic model in ALE3D applies the Ignition and Growth (I&G) reactive flow model with PBX 9501 parameters derived from historical 1-dimensional experimental data. The model includes the off-center and angle of impact variations seen in the experiments. Qualitatively, the ALE3D I&G calculations reproduce observed 'Go/No-Go' 3D Shock to Detonation Transition (SDT) reaction in the explosive, as well as the case expansion recorded by a high-speed optical camera. Quantitatively, the calculations show good agreement with the shock time of arrival at internal and external diagnostic pins. This exercise demonstrates the utility of the Ignition and Growth model applied for the response of heterogeneous high explosives in the SDT regime.

  4. Modeling The Shock Initiation of PBX-9501 in ALE3D

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Leininger, L; Springer, H K; Mace, J; Mas, E

    2008-07-01

    The SMIS (Specific Munitions Impact Scenario) experimental series performed at Los Alamos National Laboratory has determined the 3-dimensional shock initiation behavior of the HMX-based heterogeneous high explosive, PBX 9501. A series of finite element impact calculations have been performed in the ALE3D [1] hydrodynamic code and compared to the SMIS results to validate the code predictions. The SMIS tests use a powder gun to shoot scaled NATO standard fragments at a cylinder of PBX 9501, which has a PMMA case and a steel impact cover. The SMIS real-world shot scenario creates a unique test-bed because many of the fragments arrive at the impact plate off-center and at an angle of impact. The goal of this model validation experiments is to demonstrate the predictive capability of the Tarver-Lee Ignition and Growth (I&G) reactive flow model [2] in this fully 3-dimensional regime of Shock to Detonation Transition (SDT). The 3-dimensional Arbitrary Lagrange Eulerian hydrodynamic model in ALE3D applies the Ignition and Growth (I&G) reactive flow model with PBX 9501 parameters derived from historical 1-dimensional experimental data. The model includes the off-center and angle of impact variations seen in the experiments. Qualitatively, the ALE3D I&G calculations accurately reproduce the 'Go/No-Go' threshold of the Shock to Detonation Transition (SDT) reaction in the explosive, as well as the case expansion recorded by a high-speed optical camera. Quantitatively, the calculations show good agreement with the shock time of arrival at internal and external diagnostic pins. This exercise demonstrates the utility of the Ignition and Growth model applied in a predictive fashion for the response of heterogeneous high explosives in the SDT regime.

  5. Evaluation of the meteorological forcing used for the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII) air quality simulations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vautard, R.; Moran, M.D.; Solazzo, E.; Gilliam, R.C.; Matthias, V.; Bianconi, R.; Chemel, C.; Ferreira, J.; Geyer, B.; Hansen, A.B.; Jericevic, A.; Prank, M.; Segers, A.; Silver, J.D.; Werhahn, J.; Wolke, R.; Rao, S.T.; Galmarini, S.

    2012-01-01

    Accurate regional air pollution simulation relies strongly on the accuracy of the mesoscale meteorological simulation used to drive the air quality model. The framework of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII), which involved a large international community of modeling

  6. Evaluation of the meteorological forcing used the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII) air quality simulations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Segers, A.J.; Vautard, R.; Moran, M.D.; Solazzo, E.; Gilliam, R.C.; Matthias, V.; Bianconi, R.; Chemel, C.; Ferreira, J.; Geyer, B.; Hansen, A.B.; Jericevic, A.; Prank, M.; Silver, J.D.; Werhahn, J.; Wolke, R.; Rao, S.T.; Galmarini, S.

    2011-01-01

    Accurate regional air pollution simulation relies strongly on the accuracy of the mesoscale meteorological simulation used to drive the air quality model. The framework of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII), which involved a large international community of modeling

  7. Maximum likelihood fitting of FROC curves under an initial-detection-and-candidate-analysis model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Edwards, Darrin C.; Kupinski, Matthew A.; Metz, Charles E.; Nishikawa, Robert M.

    2002-01-01

    We have developed a model for FROC curve fitting that relates the observer's FROC performance not to the ROC performance that would be obtained if the observer's responses were scored on a per image basis, but rather to a hypothesized ROC performance that the observer would obtain in the task of classifying a set of 'candidate detections' as positive or negative. We adopt the assumptions of the Bunch FROC model, namely that the observer's detections are all mutually independent, as well as assumptions qualitatively similar to, but different in nature from, those made by Chakraborty in his AFROC scoring methodology. Under the assumptions of our model, we show that the observer's FROC performance is a linearly scaled version of the candidate analysis ROC curve, where the scaling factors are just given by the FROC operating point coordinates for detecting initial candidates. Further, we show that the likelihood function of the model parameters given observational data takes on a simple form, and we develop a maximum likelihood method for fitting a FROC curve to this data. FROC and AFROC curves are produced for computer vision observer datasets and compared with the results of the AFROC scoring method. Although developed primarily with computer vision schemes in mind, we hope that the methodology presented here will prove worthy of further study in other applications as well

  8. Reflective practice groups for nurses: a consultation liaison psychiatry nursing initiative: part 1--The model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dawber, Chris

    2013-04-01

    In the present study, we outline the evolution of a process-focused reflective practice group (RPG) model for nurses working in clinical settings. The groups were initiated at Redcliffe and Caboolture hospitals by the consultation liaison psychiatry nurse and author. An associated article provides an evaluation of these RPG. The literature review identifies the key themes and theories on which the model is based, and the article outlines the process and practicalities of facilitating RPG in critical care, midwifery, and oncology specialties over a 3-year period. The model proposes that the effectiveness and sustainability of RPG arises from adequate preparation and engagement with prospective participants. Group rules, based on principles of confidentially, supportiveness, and diversity, were collaboratively developed for each group. Facilitation utilized a group-as-a-whole approach to manage process and stimulate reflection. While the purpose of RPG was a reflection on interpersonal aspects of nursing, contextual workplace issues were frequently raised in groups. Acknowledgement and containment of such issues were necessary to maintain clinical focus. The literature highlights facilitator credibility and style as crucial factors in the overall success of RPG, and it is proposed that reflective practice as a process-focused model for groups succeeds when nurse facilitators are trained in group process and receive concurrent supervision. © 2012 The Author; International Journal of Mental Health Nursing © 2012 Australian College of Mental Health Nurses Inc.

  9. A latent transition model of the effects of a teen dating violence prevention initiative.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Jason; Miller, Shari; Cutbush, Stacey; Gibbs, Deborah; Clinton-Sherrod, Monique; Jones, Sarah

    2015-02-01

    Patterns of physical and psychological teen dating violence (TDV) perpetration, victimization, and related behaviors were examined with data from the evaluation of the Start Strong: Building Healthy Teen Relationships initiative, a dating violence primary prevention program targeting middle school students. Latent class and latent transition models were used to estimate distinct patterns of TDV and related behaviors of bullying and sexual harassment in seventh grade students at baseline and to estimate transition probabilities from one pattern of behavior to another at the 1-year follow-up. Intervention effects were estimated by conditioning transitions on exposure to Start Strong. Latent class analyses suggested four classes best captured patterns of these interrelated behaviors. Classes were characterized by elevated perpetration and victimization on most behaviors (the multiproblem class), bullying perpetration/victimization and sexual harassment victimization (the bully-harassment victimization class), bullying perpetration/victimization and psychological TDV victimization (bully-psychological victimization), and experience of bully victimization (bully victimization). Latent transition models indicated greater stability of class membership in the comparison group. Intervention students were less likely to transition to the most problematic pattern and more likely to transition to the least problem class. Although Start Strong has not been found to significantly change TDV, alternative evaluation models may find important differences. Latent transition analysis models suggest positive intervention impact, especially for the transitions at the most and the least positive end of the spectrum. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  10. Recent Upgrades to NASA SPoRT Initialization Datasets for the Environmental Modeling System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Case, Jonathan L.; Lafontaine, Frank J.; Molthan, Andrew L.; Zavodsky, Bradley T.; Rozumalski, Robert A.

    2012-01-01

    The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center has developed several products for its NOAA/National Weather Service (NWS) partners that can initialize specific fields for local model runs within the NOAA/NWS Science and Training Resource Center Environmental Modeling System (EMS). The suite of SPoRT products for use in the EMS consists of a Sea Surface Temperature (SST) composite that includes a Lake Surface Temperature (LST) analysis over the Great Lakes, a Great Lakes sea-ice extent within the SST composite, a real-time Green Vegetation Fraction (GVF) composite, and NASA Land Information System (LIS) gridded output. This paper and companion poster describe each dataset and provide recent upgrades made to the SST, Great Lakes LST, GVF composites, and the real-time LIS runs.

  11. Turbulence modeling with fractional derivatives: Derivation from first principles and initial results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Epps, Brenden; Cushman-Roisin, Benoit

    2017-11-01

    Fluid turbulence is an outstanding unsolved problem in classical physics, despite 120+ years of sustained effort. Given this history, we assert that a new mathematical framework is needed to make a transformative breakthrough. This talk offers one such framework, based upon kinetic theory tied to the statistics of turbulent transport. Starting from the Boltzmann equation and ``Lévy α-stable distributions'', we derive a turbulence model that expresses the turbulent stresses in the form of a fractional derivative, where the fractional order is tied to the transport behavior of the flow. Initial results are presented herein, for the cases of Couette-Poiseuille flow and 2D boundary layers. Among other results, our model is able to reproduce the logarithmic Law of the Wall in shear turbulence.

  12. School staff, parent and student perceptions of a Breakfast in the Classroom model during initial implementation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Folta, Sara C; Carmichael Djang, Holly; Halmo, Megan; Metayer, Nesly; Blondin, Stacy A; Smith, Kathleen S; Economos, Christina D

    2016-06-01

    To understand perspectives of stakeholders during initial district-wide implementation of a Breakfast in the Classroom (BIC) model of the School Breakfast Program. Qualitative data were collected from twenty-nine focus groups and twenty interviews with stakeholders in a school district early in the process of implementing a BIC model of the School Breakfast Program. Ten elementary schools within a large, urban school district in the USA that served predominantly low-income, racial/ethnic minority students. Purposively selected stakeholders in elementary schools that had implemented BIC for 3-6 months: students (n 85), parents/guardians (n 86), classroom teachers (n 44), cafeteria managers (n 10) and principals (n 10). Four primary themes emerged, which were interpreted based on the Diffusion of Innovations model. School staff had changed their perceptions of both the relative disadvantages and costs related to time and effort of BIC over time; the majority of each stakeholder group expressed an appreciation for BIC; student breakfast consumption varied from day to day, related to compatibility of foods with child preferences; and stakeholders held mixed and various impressions of BIC's potential impacts. The study underscores the importance of engaging school staff and parents in discussions of BIC programming prior to its initiation to pre-emptively address concerns related to cost, relative disadvantages and compatibility with child preferences and school routines/workflow. Effectively communicating with stakeholders about positive impacts and nutritional value of the meals may improve support for BIC. These findings provide new information to policy makers, districts and practitioners that can be used to improve implementation efforts, model delivery and outcomes.

  13. Work information and emotional support of self-initiated expatriates: multilevel mediation model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kubovcikova, Annamária; van Bakel, Marian

    This article explores the immediate network context of self-initiated expatriates and how it influences their work information and emotional support. Building on the information seeking theory and the theory of weak and strong ties, we have created a model connecting specific characteristics...... employment status is then mediated to work information and emotional support on the other hand; negative effect of host country origin is affecting emotional support only. The effect of status was likely conflated with host country origin in the previously published results, leading to biased conclusions....

  14. Escalation scenarios initiated by gas explosions on offshore installations. Probabilistic cause and consequence modelling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eknes, Monika Loeland

    1996-12-31

    This Dr. ing. thesis deals with escalation scenarios initiated by gas explosions on offshore installations. Gas explosions is one of the major hazards to such installations. The objectives were to estimate the probability of ignition and frequency of gas explosions for gas leaks on top sides of offshore installations, and to estimate the response and resistance of components that could result in escalation if they failed. Main fields considered cover risk analysis methodology, gas explosions, simplified escalation models, evaluation of structural consequences, case studies, and guidelines. 107 refs., 33 figs., 33 tabs.

  15. How Modeling Standards, Software, and Initiatives Support Reproducibility in Systems Biology and Systems Medicine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waltemath, Dagmar; Wolkenhauer, Olaf

    2016-10-01

    Only reproducible results are of significance to science. The lack of suitable standards and appropriate support of standards in software tools has led to numerous publications with irreproducible results. Our objectives are to identify the key challenges of reproducible research and to highlight existing solutions. In this paper, we summarize problems concerning reproducibility in systems biology and systems medicine. We focus on initiatives, standards, and software tools that aim to improve the reproducibility of simulation studies. The long-term success of systems biology and systems medicine depends on trustworthy models and simulations. This requires openness to ensure reusability and transparency to enable reproducibility of results in these fields.

  16. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis for the 'initial defect in the canister' reference model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cormenzana, J. L.

    2013-08-01

    In Posiva Oy's Safety Case 'TURVA-2012' the repository system scenarios leading to radionuclide releases have been identified in Formulation of Radionuclide Release Scenarios. Three potential causes of canister failure and radionuclide release are considered: (i) the presence of an initial defect in the copper shell of one canister that penetrates the shell completely, (ii) corrosion of the copper overpack, that occurs more rapidly if buffer density is reduced, e.g. by erosion, (iii) shear movement on fractures intersecting the deposition hole. All three failure modes are analysed deterministically in Assessment of Radionuclide Release Scenarios, and for the 'initial defect in the canister' reference model a probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) has been carried out. The main steps of the PSA have been: quantification of the uncertainties in the model input parameters through the creation of probability density distributions (PDFs), Monte Carlo simulations of the evolution of the system up to 106 years using parameters values sampled from the previous PDFs. Monte Carlo simulations with 10,000 individual calculations (realisations) have been used in the PSA, quantification of the uncertainty in the model outputs due to uncertainty in the input parameters (uncertainty analysis), and identification of the parameters whose uncertainty have the greatest effect on the uncertainty in the model outputs (sensitivity analysis) Since the biosphere is not included in the Monte Carlo simulations of the system, the model outputs studied are not doses, but total and radionuclide-specific normalised release rates from the near-field and to the biosphere. These outputs are calculated dividing the activity release rates by the constraints on the activity fluxes to the environment set out by the Finnish regulator. Two different cases are analysed in the PSA: (i) the 'hole forever' case, in which the small hole through the copper overpack remains unchanged during the assessment

  17. Cap- and initiator tRNA-dependent initiation of TYMV polyprotein synthesis by ribosomes: evaluation of the Trojan horse model for TYMV RNA translation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matsuda, Daiki; Dreher, Theo W

    2007-01-01

    Turnip yellow mosaic virus (TYMV) RNA directs the translation of two overlapping open reading frames. Competing models have been previously published to explain ribosome access to the downstream polyprotein cistron. The Trojan horse model, based on cell-free experiments, proposes noncanonical cap-independent initiation in which the 3'-terminal tRNA-like structure (TLS) functionally replaces initiator tRNA, and the valine bound to the TLS becomes cis-incorporated into viral protein. The initiation coupling model, based on in vivo expression and ribosome toe-printing studies, proposes a variation of canonical leaky scanning. Here, we have re-examined the wheat germ extract experiments that led to the Trojan horse model, incorporating a variety of controls. We report that (1) translation in vitro from the polyprotein AUG of TYMV RNA is unchanged after removal of the 3' TLS but is stimulated by the presence of a 5'-cap; (2) the presence of free cap analog or edeine (which interferes with initiation at the ribosomal P site and its tRNA(i) (Met) involvement) inhibits translation from the polyprotein AUG; (3) the toe-prints of immediately post-initiation ribosomes on TYMV RNA are similar with and without an intact TLS; and (4) significant deacylation of valyl-TYMV RNA in wheat germ extract can complicate the detection of cis-incorporation. These results favor the initiation coupling model.

  18. Magnetohydrodynamic Modeling of Solar Coronal Dynamics with an Initial Non-force-free Magnetic Field

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Prasad, A.; Bhattacharyya, R.; Kumar, Sanjay [Udaipur Solar Observatory, Physical Research Laboratory, Dewali, Bari Road, Udaipur-313001 (India)

    2017-05-01

    The magnetic fields in the solar corona are generally neither force-free nor axisymmetric and have complex dynamics that are difficult to characterize. Here we simulate the topological evolution of solar coronal magnetic field lines (MFLs) using a magnetohydrodynamic model. The simulation is initialized with a non-axisymmetric non-force-free magnetic field that best correlates with the observed vector magnetograms of solar active regions (ARs). To focus on these ideas, simulations are performed for the flaring AR 11283 noted for its complexity and well-documented dynamics. The simulated dynamics develops as the initial Lorentz force pushes the plasma and facilitates successive magnetic reconnections at the two X-type null lines present in the initial field. Importantly, the simulation allows for the spontaneous development of mass flow, unique among contemporary works, that preferentially reconnects field lines at one of the X-type null lines. Consequently, a flux rope consisting of low-lying twisted MFLs, which approximately traces the major polarity inversion line, undergoes an asymmetric monotonic rise. The rise is attributed to a reduction in the magnetic tension force at the region overlying the rope, resulting from the reconnection. A monotonic rise of the rope is in conformity with the standard scenario of flares. Importantly, the simulated dynamics leads to bifurcations of the flux rope, which, being akin to the observed filament bifurcation in AR 11283, establishes the appropriateness of the initial field in describing ARs.

  19. A heuristic neural network initialization scheme for modeling nonlinear functions in engineering mechanics: continuous development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pei, Jin-Song; Mai, Eric C.

    2007-04-01

    This paper introduces a continuous effort towards the development of a heuristic initialization methodology for constructing multilayer feedforward neural networks to model nonlinear functions. In this and previous studies that this work is built upon, including the one presented at SPIE 2006, the authors do not presume to provide a universal method to approximate arbitrary functions, rather the focus is given to the development of a rational and unambiguous initialization procedure that applies to the approximation of nonlinear functions in the specific domain of engineering mechanics. The applications of this exploratory work can be numerous including those associated with potential correlation and interpretation of the inner workings of neural networks, such as damage detection. The goal of this study is fulfilled by utilizing the governing physics and mathematics of nonlinear functions and the strength of the sigmoidal basis function. A step-by-step graphical procedure utilizing a few neural network prototypes as "templates" to approximate commonly seen memoryless nonlinear functions of one or two variables is further developed in this study. Decomposition of complex nonlinear functions into a summation of some simpler nonlinear functions is utilized to exploit this prototype-based initialization methodology. Training examples are presented to demonstrate the rationality and effciency of the proposed methodology when compared with the popular Nguyen-Widrow initialization algorithm. Future work is also identfied.

  20. Solid waste initiative Macro Material Flow Modeling conceptual description and requirements

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Holter, G.M.; Stapp, D.C.

    1993-01-01

    This report describes a Macro Material Flow Modeling (MMFM) concept and approach that are being adopted to develop a predictive modeling capability that can be used as the basis for evaluating potential impacts from various solid waste management system configurations and operating scenarios, as well as the impacts of various policies on solid waste quantities and compositions. This capability, as part of a broader Solid Waste Initiative at Pacific Northwest Laboratory, is intended to provide an increased understanding of solid waste as a disposal, energy, and resource problem on a national and global scale, particularly over the long term. The results of this increased understanding will eventually have an impact on a variety of US federal government activities, as well as on the activities of other entities. This increased understanding will also help provide the basis for subsequent activities under the Solid Waste Initiative. The report describes current solid waste management practices and their context, defines questions of interest relating to these practices, and proposes an approach that could be employed to analyze these practices and possible alternatives to them. A preliminary review, analysis, and summary of available data to support this approach are also provided.

  1. Instrumental record of debris flow initiation during natural rainfall: Implications for modeling slope stability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montgomery, D.R.; Schmidt, K.M.; Dietrich, W.E.; McKean, J.

    2009-01-01

    The middle of a hillslope hollow in the Oregon Coast Range failed and mobilized as a debris flow during heavy rainfall in November 1996. Automated pressure transducers recorded high spatial variability of pore water pressure within the area that mobilized as a debris flow, which initiated where local upward flow from bedrock developed into overlying colluvium. Postfailure observations of the bedrock surface exposed in the debris flow scar reveal a strong spatial correspondence between elevated piezometric response and water discharging from bedrock fractures. Measurements of apparent root cohesion on the basal (Cb) and lateral (Cl) scarp demonstrate substantial local variability, with areally weighted values of Cb = 0.1 and Cl = 4.6 kPa. Using measured soil properties and basal root strength, the widely used infinite slope model, employed assuming slope parallel groundwater flow, provides a poor prediction of hydrologie conditions at failure. In contrast, a model including lateral root strength (but neglecting lateral frictional strength) gave a predicted critical value of relative soil saturation that fell within the range defined by the arithmetic and geometric mean values at the time of failure. The 3-D slope stability model CLARA-W, used with locally observed pore water pressure, predicted small areas with lower factors of safety within the overall slide mass at sites consistent with field observations of where the failure initiated. This highly variable and localized nature of small areas of high pore pressure that can trigger slope failure means, however, that substantial uncertainty appears inevitable for estimating hydrologie conditions within incipient debris flows under natural conditions. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

  2. Effect of the Initial Vortex Size on Intensity Change in the WRF-ROMS Coupled Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Xiaohui; Chan, Johnny C. L.

    2017-12-01

    Numerous studies have demonstrated that the tropical cyclone (TC) induced sea surface temperature (SST) cooling strongly depends on the preexisting oceanic condition and TC characteristics. However, very few focused on the correlation of SST cooling and the subsequent intensity with TC size. Therefore, a series of idealized numerical experiments are conducted using the Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with the Regional Ocean Model System (ROMS) model to understand how the vortex size is related to SST cooling and subsequent intensity changes of a stationary TC-like vortex. In the uncoupled experiments, the radius of maximum wind (RMW) and size (radius of gale-force wind (R17)) both depend on the initial size within the 72 h simulation. The initially small vortex is smaller than the medium and large vortices throughout its life cycle and is the weakest. In other words, thermodynamic processes do not contribute as much to the R17 change as the dynamic processes proposed (e.g., angular momentum transport) in previous studies. In the coupled experiments, the area-averaged SST cooling induced by medium and large TCs within the inner-core region is comparable due to the similar surface winds and thus mixing in the ocean. Although a stronger SST cooling averaged within a larger region outside the inner-core is induced by the larger TC, the intensity of the larger TC is more intense. This is because that the enthalpy flux in the inner-core region is higher in the larger TC than that in the medium and small TCs.

  3. Intestinal epithelial apoptosis initiates gross bowel necrosis in an experimental rat model of neonatal necrotizing enterocolitis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jilling, Tamas; Lu, Jing; Jackson, Michele; Caplan, Michael S

    2004-04-01

    The histopathology of necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC) is characterized by destruction of the mucosal layer in initial stages and by transmural necrosis of the intestinal wall in advanced stages of the disease. To test the hypothesis that enhanced epithelial apoptosis is an initial event underlying the gross histologic changes, we analyzed epithelial apoptosis and tissue morphology in an animal model of NEC and evaluated the effect of caspase inhibition on the incidence of experimental NEC in this model. Apoptosis was analyzed with terminal deoxynucleotidyltransferase-mediated dUTP-FITC nick end labeling (TUNEL) staining in intestinal sections and by measuring caspase 3 activity from intestinal lysates of neonatal rats subjected to formula feeding and cold/asphyxia stress (FFCAS) and from mother-fed (MF) controls. Morphologic evaluation was based on hematoxylin and eosin staining of intestinal sections. FFCAS resulted in histologic changes consistent with NEC, which were absent from MF animals. FFCAS was also associated with a significantly increased rate of nuclear DNA fragmentation in the small intestinal epithelium compared with MF. Elevated tissue caspase 3 activity confirmed the presence of apoptosis in samples with increased DNA fragmentation. Analysis of the coincidence of morphologic damage and apoptosis in corresponding tissue sections indicated that apoptosis precedes gross morphologic changes in this model. Furthermore, supplementation of formula with 8 boc-aspartyl(OMe)-fluoromethylketone, a pan-caspase inhibitor, significantly reduced the incidences of apoptosis and experimental NEC. These findings indicate that in neonatal rats FFCAS induces epithelial apoptosis that serves as an underlying cause for subsequent gross tissue necrosis.

  4. The Impact of 3D Data Quality on Improving GNSS Performance Using City Models Initial Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellul, C.; Adjrad, M.; Groves, P.

    2016-10-01

    There is an increasing demand for highly accurate positioning information in urban areas, to support applications such as people and vehicle tracking, real-time air quality detection and navigation. However systems such as GPS typically perform poorly in dense urban areas. A number of authors have made use of 3D city models to enhance accuracy, obtaining good results, but to date the influence of the quality of the 3D city model on these results has not been tested. This paper addresses the following question: how does the quality, and in particular the variation in height, level of generalization and completeness and currency of a 3D dataset, impact the results obtained for the preliminary calculations in a process known as Shadow Matching, which takes into account not only where satellite signals are visible on the street but also where they are predicted to be absent. We describe initial simulations to address this issue, examining the variation in elevation angle - i.e. the angle above which the satellite is visible, for three 3D city models in a test area in London, and note that even within one dataset using different available height values could cause a difference in elevation angle of up to 29°. Missing or extra buildings result in an elevation variation of around 85°. Variations such as these can significantly influence the predicted satellite visibility which will then not correspond to that experienced on the ground, reducing the accuracy of the resulting Shadow Matching process.

  5. Application of micromechanical models of ductile fracture initiation to reactor pressure vessel materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chaouadi, R.; Walle, E. van; Fabry, A.; Velde, J. van de; Meester, P. de

    1996-01-01

    The aim of the current study is the application of local micromechanical models to predict crack initiation in ductile materials. Two reactor pressure vessel materials have been selected for this study: JRQ IAEA monitor base metal (A533B Cl.1) and Doel-IV weld material. Charpy impact tests have been performed in both un-irradiated and irradiated conditions. In addition to standard tensile tests, notched tensile specimens have been tested. The upper shelf energy of the weld material remains almost un-affected by irradiation, whereas a decrease of 20% is detected for the base metal. Accordingly, the tensile properties of the weld material do not reveal a clear irradiation effect on the yield and ultimate stresses, this in contrast to the base material flow properties. The tensile tests have been analyzed in terms of micromechanical models. A good correlation is found between the standard tests and the micromechanical models, that are able to predict the ductile damage evolution in these materials. Additional information on the ductility behavior of these materials is revealed by this micromechanical analysis

  6. Investigating the initial stages of soil formation in glacier forefields using the new biogeochemical model: SHIMMER

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bradley, James; Anesio, Alexandre; Arndt, Sandra; Sabacka, Marie; Barker, Gary; Benning, Liane; Blacker, Joshua; Singarayer, Joy; Tranter, Martyn; Yallop, Marian

    2016-04-01

    observations from chronosequences from the forefield of Midtre Lovénbreen, Svalbard (78°N), to investigate the first 120 years of soil development. We carried out an in depth analysis of the model dynamics and determined the most sensitive parameters. We then used laboratory measurements to derive values for those parameters: bacterial growth rate, growth efficiency and temperature dependency. By applying the model to the High-Arctic forefield and integrating the measured parameter values, we could refine the model and easily predict the rapid accumulation of microbial biomass that was observed in our field data. Furthermore, we show that the bacterial production is dominated by autotrophy (rather than heterotrophy). Heterotrophic production in young soils (0-20 years) is supported by labile substrate, whereas carbon stocks in older soils (60-120 years) are more refractory. Nitrogen fixing organisms are responsible for the initial accumulation of available nitrates in the soil. However, microbial processes alone do not explain the build-up of organic matter observed in the field data record. Consequently, the model infers that allochthonous deposition of organic material may play a significant contributory role that could accelerate or facilitate further microbial growth. SHIMMER provides a quantitative evaluation on the dynamics of glacier forefield systems that have previously largely been explored through qualitative interpretation of datasets. References Bradley J.A., Singarayer J.S., Anesio A.M. (2014) Microbial community dynamics in the forefield of glaciers. Proceedings Biological sciences / The Royal Society 281(1795), 2793-2802. (doi:10.1098/rspb.2014.0882). Bradley J.A., Anesio A.M., Singarayer J.S., Heath M.R., Arndt S. (2015) SHIMMER (1.0): a novel mathematical model for microbial and biogeochemical dynamics in glacier forefield ecosystems. Geosci Model Dev 8(10), 3441-3470. (doi:10.5194/gmd-8-3441-2015).

  7. How space design and technology can support the Pharmacy Practice Model Initiative through interprofessional collaboration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lindsay Hahn

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The Pharmacy Practice Model Initiative (PPMI calls pharmacists to more direct patient care and increased responsibility for medication-related outcomes, as a means of achieving greater safety, improving outcomes and reducing costs. This article acknowledges the value of interprofessional collaboration to the PPMI and identifies the implications of the Initiative for space design and technology, both of which stand to help the Initiative gather additional support. Summary: The profession of pharmacy has for some time now become increasingly vocal about its desire to take on greater responsibility for patient outcomes. With drug costs representing the largest portion of a hospital's pharmacy budget and reimbursements becoming more contingent on readmission avoidance, the pharmacy's influence on a hospital's bottom line is significant. More importantly, study after study is showing that with greater pharmacist intervention, patient outcomes improve. This article addresses the ways in which developments in the fields of technology and facility design can assist in the deployment of the PPMI. Conclusion: As the PPMI achieves a critical level of support from inside and outside the pharmacy, and more empirical research emerges regarding the improved outcomes and cost savings of increasing the roles of both clinical pharmacists and pharmacy technicians, the industry sectors of healthcare technology and healthcare design stand ready to assist in the execution of this new model. By encouraging pharmacists, doctors and nurses to work together - and all caregivers to work with facility designers, biomedical engineers and IT specialists, there is the increased likelihood of these fields turning to each other to problem-solve together, all for the ultimate benefit to patients and their families.   Type: Commentary

  8. A Critical Assessment of Burn Models Available for Implementation into a Computer Code to Model Shock Initiation of Heterogeneous Explosives

    Science.gov (United States)

    1989-07-01

    includes a dependence on the shock strength has been described by Damamme and Missonier [391 and is known as the Krakatoa model. It has the form dA...is a function which depends on the shock strength, and Am and ’a are constants. K(P) = pn (27) and H(A) = (Q - A) [2n (1 - 2/3 (28) 17 The Krakatoa ...with the model. Both the DAGMAR and Krakatoa models are also inappropriate, as neither addresses the problem of particle size effects. The multiphase

  9. Solutions Stability of Initial Boundary Problem, Modeling of Dynamics of Some Discrete Continuum Mechanical System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. A. Eliseev

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The solution stability of an initial boundary problem for a linear hybrid system of differential equations, which models the rotation of a rigid body with two elastic rods located in the same plane is studied in the paper. To an axis passing through the mass center of the rigid body perpendicularly to the rods location plane is applied the stabilizing moment proportional to the angle of the system rotation, derivative of the angle, integral of the angle. The external moment provides a feedback. A method of studying the behavior of solutions of the initial boundary problem is proposed. This method allows to exclude from the hybrid system of differential equations partial differential equations, which describe the dynamics of distributed elements of a mechanical system. It allows us to build one equation for an angle of the system rotation. Its characteristic equation defines the stability of solutions of all the system. In the space of feedback-coefficients the areas that provide the asymptotic stability of solutions of the initial boundary problem are built up.

  10. From Family Based to Industrial Based Production: Local Economic Development Initiatives and the HELIX Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bartjan W Pennink

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available To build a strong local economy, good practice tells us that each community should undertake a collaborative, strategically planned process to understand and then act upon its own strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats. From this perspective we start with the local communities but how is this related to the perspective from the Helix model in which three actors are explicitly introduced: the Government, the Industry and the Universities? The purpose of local economic development (LED is to build up the economic capacity of a local area to improve its economic future and the quality of life for all. To support  the Local Economic Development in remote areas,   a program  has been developed based on the LED frame work of the world bank. This approach and  the experiences over  the past years with this program are  described in the first part.  In the second part of the paper, We analyse work done with that program with the help of the social capital concept and the triple helix model.  In all cases it is important to pay attention to who is taken the initiative after the first move (and it is not always the governance as actor and for the triple helix we suggest  that the concepts of (national Government, Industry and University need a translation to Local Governance Agency, Cooperation or other ways of cooperation of local communities and Local Universities. Although a push from outside might help  a local region in development the endogenous factors are  also needed. Keywords: Triple Helix model, Local Economic Development, Local Actors, Double Triangle within the Helix Model

  11. The AgMIP GRIDded Crop Modeling Initiative (AgGRID) and the Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison (GGCMI)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elliott, Joshua; Muller, Christoff

    2015-01-01

    Climate change is a significant risk for agricultural production. Even under optimistic scenarios for climate mitigation action, present-day agricultural areas are likely to face significant increases in temperatures in the coming decades, in addition to changes in precipitation, cloud cover, and the frequency and duration of extreme heat, drought, and flood events (IPCC, 2013). These factors will affect the agricultural system at the global scale by impacting cultivation regimes, prices, trade, and food security (Nelson et al., 2014a). Global-scale evaluation of crop productivity is a major challenge for climate impact and adaptation assessment. Rigorous global assessments that are able to inform planning and policy will benefit from consistent use of models, input data, and assumptions across regions and time that use mutually agreed protocols designed by the modeling community. To ensure this consistency, large-scale assessments are typically performed on uniform spatial grids, with spatial resolution of typically 10 to 50 km, over specified time-periods. Many distinct crop models and model types have been applied on the global scale to assess productivity and climate impacts, often with very different results (Rosenzweig et al., 2014). These models are based to a large extent on field-scale crop process or ecosystems models and they typically require resolved data on weather, environmental, and farm management conditions that are lacking in many regions (Bondeau et al., 2007; Drewniak et al., 2013; Elliott et al., 2014b; Gueneau et al., 2012; Jones et al., 2003; Liu et al., 2007; M¨uller and Robertson, 2014; Van den Hoof et al., 2011;Waha et al., 2012; Xiong et al., 2014). Due to data limitations, the requirements of consistency, and the computational and practical limitations of running models on a large scale, a variety of simplifying assumptions must generally be made regarding prevailing management strategies on the grid scale in both the baseline and

  12. Bias Correction for climate impact modeling within the framework of the HAPPI Initiative

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saeed, Fahad; Lange, Stefan; Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich

    2017-04-01

    In its landmark Paris Agreement of 2015, the Conference of the Parties of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the IPCC to prepare a special report "on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related greenhouse gas emission pathways" by 2018. Unfortunately, most current experiments (including Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP)), are not specifically designed for making a substantial contribution to this report. To fill this gap, the HAPPI (Half a degree Additional warming, Projection, Prognosis and Impacts) initiative has been designed to assess climate projections, and in particular extreme weather, at present day and in worlds that are 1.5°C and 2.0°C warmer than pre-industrial conditions? Global Climate Model (GCM) output for HAPPI will be utilized to assess climate impacts with a range of sectorial climate impact models. Before the use of climate data as input for sectorial impact models, statistical bias correction is commonly applied to correct climate model data for systematic deviations of the simulated historic data from observations and to increase the accuracy of the projections. Different approaches have been adopted for this purpose, however the most common are the one based on transfer functions generated to map the distribution of the simulated historical data to that of the observations. In the current study, we presented results for a novel bias correction method developed for Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2b (ISIMIP2b) applied to output of different GCMs generated within the HAPPI project. The results indicate that the application of bias correction has shown substantial improvement in the results when we compared to observational data. Besides the marked improvement in seasonal mean differences for different variables, also the output for extreme event indicators is considerably improved. We conclude that the applied application of bias

  13. Improvement of a mesoscale atmospheric dynamic model PHYSIC. Utilization of output from synoptic numerical prediction model for initial and boundary condition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nagai, Haruyasu; Yamazawa, Hiromi

    1995-03-01

    This report describes the improvement of the mesoscale atmospheric dynamic model which is a part of the atmospheric dispersion calculation model PHYSIC. To introduce large-scale meteorological changes into the mesoscale atmospheric dynamic model, it is necessary to make the initial and boundary conditions of the model by using GPV (Grid Point Value) which is the output of the numerical weather prediction model of JMA (Japan Meteorological Agency). Therefore, the program which preprocesses the GPV data to make a input file to PHYSIC was developed and the input process and the methods of spatial and temporal interpolation were improved to correspond to the file. Moreover, the methods of calculating the cloud amount and ground surface moisture from GPV data were developed and added to the model code. As the example of calculation by the improved model, the wind field simulations of a north-west monsoon in winter and a sea breeze in summer in the Tokai area were also presented. (author)

  14. Partial Overhaul and Initial Parallel Optimization of KINETICS, a Coupled Dynamics and Chemistry Atmosphere Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nguyen, Howard; Willacy, Karen; Allen, Mark

    2012-01-01

    KINETICS is a coupled dynamics and chemistry atmosphere model that is data intensive and computationally demanding. The potential performance gain from using a supercomputer motivates the adaptation from a serial version to a parallelized one. Although the initial parallelization had been done, bottlenecks caused by an abundance of communication calls between processors led to an unfavorable drop in performance. Before starting on the parallel optimization process, a partial overhaul was required because a large emphasis was placed on streamlining the code for user convenience and revising the program to accommodate the new supercomputers at Caltech and JPL. After the first round of optimizations, the partial runtime was reduced by a factor of 23; however, performance gains are dependent on the size of the data, the number of processors requested, and the computer used.

  15. Deduction of initial strategy distributions of agents in mix-game models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gou, Chengling

    2006-11-01

    This paper reports the effort of deducing the initial strategy distributions (ISDs) of agents in mix-game models that is used to predict a real financial time series generated from a target financial market. Using mix-games to predict Shanghai Index, we find that the time series of prediction accurate rates is sensitive to the ISDs of agents in group 2 who play a minority game, but less sensitive to the ISDs of agents in group 1 who play a majority game. And agents in group 2 tend to cluster in full strategy space (FSS) if the real financial time series has obvious tendency (upward or downward), otherwise they tend to scatter in FSS. We also find that the ISDs and the number of agents in group 1 influence the level of prediction accurate rates. Finally, this paper gives suggestion about further research.

  16. The Belgian initiative G1000. A feasible model of deliberative cyber democracy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laura Tejedor Fuentes

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available In 2010, after five hundred days without any stable form of government, a group of Belgian citizens from a wide range of social backgrounds launched a citizenship summit called 'G1000'. The aim of the event was to create citizen involvement in politics by stimulating participants to take part in debates about social issues and by applying innovative techniques of deliberative democracy. In order to verify whether the model mentioned meets the criteria of an “online democratic-deliberative” experiment, this article carried out a quantitative analysis of the G1000 based on the work of Fishkin, Chadwick and Habermas. According to the majority of authors who have contributed to the topic, including the spokesperson and organizer of the event, Vincent Jacquet the results demonstrate that the G1000 summit is, in fact, a genuine democratic-deliberative initiative.

  17. Impact of rainfall spatial distribution on rainfall-runoff modelling efficiency and initial soil moisture conditions estimation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Tramblay

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available A good knowledge of rainfall is essential for hydrological operational purposes such as flood forecasting. The objective of this paper was to analyze, on a relatively large sample of flood events, how rainfall-runoff modeling using an event-based model can be sensitive to the use of spatial rainfall compared to mean areal rainfall over the watershed. This comparison was based not only on the model's efficiency in reproducing the flood events but also through the estimation of the initial conditions by the model, using different rainfall inputs. The initial conditions of soil moisture are indeed a key factor for flood modeling in the Mediterranean region. In order to provide a soil moisture index that could be related to the initial condition of the model, the soil moisture output of the Safran-Isba-Modcou (SIM model developed by Météo-France was used. This study was done in the Gardon catchment (545 km2 in South France, using uniform or spatial rainfall data derived from rain gauge and radar for 16 flood events. The event-based model considered combines the SCS runoff production model and the Lag and Route routing model. Results show that spatial rainfall increases the efficiency of the model. The advantage of using spatial rainfall is marked for some of the largest flood events. In addition, the relationship between the model's initial condition and the external predictor of soil moisture provided by the SIM model is better when using spatial rainfall, in particular when using spatial radar data with R2 values increasing from 0.61 to 0.72.

  18. A Porcine Model for Initial Surge Mechanical Ventilator Assessment and Evaluation of Two Limited Function Ventilators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dickson, Robert P; Hotchkin, David L; Lamm, Wayne JE; Hinkson, Carl; Pierson, David J; Glenny, Robb W; Rubinson, Lewis

    2013-01-01

    Objective To adapt an animal model of acute lung injury for use as a standard protocol for a screening, initial evaluation of limited function, or “surge,” ventilators for use in mass casualty scenarios. Design Prospective, experimental animal study. Setting University research laboratory. Subjects 12 adult pigs. Interventions 12 spontaneously breathing pigs (6 in each group) were subjected to acute lung injury/acute respiratory distress syndrome (ALI/ARDS) via pulmonary artery infusion of oleic acid. Following development of respiratory failure, animals were mechanically ventilated with a limited function ventilator (Simplified Automatic Ventilator [SAVe] I or II; Automedx) for one hour or until the ventilator could not support the animal. The limited function ventilator was then exchanged for a full function ventilator (Servo 900C; Siemens). Measurements and Main Results Reliable and reproducible levels of ALI/ARDS were induced. The SAVe I was unable to adequately oxygenate 5 animals, with PaO2 (52.0 ± 11.1 torr) compared to the Servo (106.0 ± 25.6 torr; p=0.002). The SAVe II was able to oxygenate and ventilate all 6 animals for one hour with no difference in PaO2 (141.8 ± 169.3 torr) compared to the Servo (158.3 ± 167.7 torr). Conclusions We describe a novel in vivo model of ALI/ARDS that can be used to initially screen limited function ventilators considered for mass respiratory failure stockpiles, and is intended to be combined with additional studies to defintively assess appropriateness for mass respiratory failure. Specifically, during this study we demonstrate that the SAVe I ventilator is unable to provide sufficient gas exchange, while the SAVe II, with several more functions, was able to support the same level of hypoxemic respiratory failure secondary to ALI/ARDS for one hour. PMID:21187747

  19. Initializing carbon cycle predictions from the Community Land Model by assimilating global biomass observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fox, A. M.; Hoar, T. J.; Smith, W. K.; Moore, D. J.

    2017-12-01

    The locations and longevity of terrestrial carbon sinks remain uncertain, however it is clear that in order to predict long-term climate changes the role of the biosphere in surface energy and carbon balance must be understood and incorporated into earth system models (ESMs). Aboveground biomass, the amount of carbon stored in vegetation, is a key component of the terrestrial carbon cycle, representing the balance of uptake through gross primary productivity (GPP), losses from respiration, senescence and mortality over hundreds of years. The best predictions of current and future land-atmosphere fluxes are likely from the integration of process-based knowledge contained in models and information from observations of changes in carbon stocks using data assimilation (DA). By exploiting long times series, it is possible to accurately detect variability and change in carbon cycle dynamics through monitoring ecosystem states, for example biomass derived from vegetation optical depth (VOD), and use this information to initialize models before making predictions. To make maximum use of information about the current state of global ecosystems when using models we have developed a system that combines the Community Land Model (CLM) with the Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART), a community tool for ensemble DA. This DA system is highly innovative in its complexity, completeness and capabilities. Here we described a series of activities, using both Observation System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) and real observations, that have allowed us to quantify the potential impact of assimilating VOD data into CLM-DART on future land-atmosphere fluxes. VOD data are particularly suitable to use in this activity due to their long temporal coverage and appropriate scale when combined with CLM, but their absolute values rely on many assumptions. Therefore, we have had to assess the implications of the VOD retrieval algorithms, with an emphasis on detecting uncertainty due to

  20. Investigating Informatics Teachers’ Initial Pedagogical Content Knowledge on Modeling and Simulation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Grgurina, Natasa; Barendsen, Erik; Suhre, Cor; van Veen, Klaas; Zwaneveld, Bert

    2017-01-01

    Computational science, comprised of modeling and simulation, is a new theme in the new 2019 Dutch secondary education informatics curriculum. To investigate the pedagogical content knowledge (PCK) on modeling and simulation, we interviewed ten informatics teachers and analyzed their PCK,

  1. Non-Bunch–Davis initial state reconciles chaotic models with BICEP and Planck

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amjad Ashoorioon

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available The BICEP2 experiment has announced a signal for primordial gravity waves with tensor-to-scalar ratio r=0.2−0.05+0.07 [1]. There are two ways to reconcile this result with the latest Planck experiment [2]. One is by assuming that there is a considerable tilt of r, Tr, with a positive sign, Tr=dln⁡r/dln⁡k≳0.57−0.27+0.29 corresponding to a blue tilt for the tensor modes of order nT≃0.53−0.27+0.29, assuming the Planck experiment best-fit value for tilt of scalar power spectrum nS. The other possibility is to assume that there is a negative running in the scalar spectral index, dnS/dln⁡k≃−0.02 which pushes up the upper bound on r from 0.11 up to 0.26 in the Planck analysis assuming the existence of a tensor spectrum. Simple slow-roll models fail to provide such large values for Tr or negative runnings in nS [1]. In this note we show that a non-Bunch–Davies initial state for perturbations can provide a match between large field chaotic models (like m2ϕ2 with the latest Planck result [3] and BICEP2 results by accommodating either the blue tilt of r or the negative large running of nS.

  2. Improving ingestion dose modelling for the ARGOS and RODOS decision support systems: A Nordic Initiative

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersson, Kasper Grann; Nielsen, Sven Poul; Thørring, Håvard

    2011-01-01

    A Nordic work group under the NKS-B activity PARDNOR has revised the input parameters in the ECOSYS model that is incorporated for ingestion dose modelling in the ARGOS and RODOS decision support systems. The new parameterisation takes into account recent measurement data, and targets the model...

  3. The Virtual Physiological Human - a European initiative for in silico human modelling -.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viceconti, Marco; Clapworthy, Gordon; Van Sint Jan, Serge

    2008-12-01

    The Virtual Physiological Human (VPH) is an initiative, strongly supported by the European Commission (EC), that seeks to develop an integrated model of human physiology at multiple scales from the whole body through the organ, tissue, cell and molecular levels to the genomic level. VPH had its beginnings in 2005 with informal discussions amongst like-minded scientists which led to the STEP project, a Coordination Action funded by the EC that began in early 2006. The STEP project greatly accelerated the progress of the VPH and proved to be a catalyst for wide-ranging discussions within Europe and for outreach activities designed to develop a broad international approach to the huge scientific and technological challenges involved in this area. This paper provides an overview of the VPH and the developments it has engendered in the rapidly expanding worldwide activities associated with the physiome. It then uses one particular project, the Living Human Project, to illustrate the type of advances that are taking place to further the aims of the VPH and similar initiatives worldwide.

  4. Academic investigator-initiated trials and the challenge of sponsor responsibility: the Cologne Sponsor Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Georgias, Christine; Grunow, Andrea; Olderog, Miriam; May, Alexander; Paulus, Ursula

    2012-12-01

    With the amendment to the German Drug Law in 2004, the conduct of clinical trials changed by at least two main aspects: (1) The principles of Good Clinical Practice (GCP) were implemented in the national legislation, and (2) for the first time, the function of the sponsor of a clinical trial and the clinical trial itself have become legally binding definitions. By that, legal differences between industrial and academic clinical trials no longer exist. Clinical trials initiated by investigators have to fulfil the same requirements while the entire sponsor responsibility has to be carried out by the Coordinating Investigator or his institution including implementation of a quality management system according to the GCP. The Cologne Sponsor Model is an effective approach with settings, structures, basic features, action, and reporting lines, as well as funding for clinical trials initiated in an academic environment. The University of Cologne assumes the sponsor responsibility for clinical trials organised by the university researchers according to law. Sponsor's duties are delegated to a central operational unit of the sponsor - the Clinical Trials Center Cologne - which further delegates duties to the Coordinating Investigator. Clinical Trials Center Cologne was established in 2002 to support the performance of clinical trials at the university by offering comprehensive advisory and practical services covering all aspects of study planning and conduct. Furthermore, a specialised division of its quality management department acts as an independent sponsor's Quality Assurance Unit. The Clinical Trials Center Cologne has established a quality management system consisting of different components (1) to enable a reasoned decision to subsequent delegation, (2) for risk-based surveillance of trial conduct (audits, monitoring-checks, and reports), and (3) support and training of the Coordinating Investigator. Double functions of persons and departments in the university

  5. Modeling time to recovery and initiating event frequency for loss of off-site power incidents at nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Iman, R.L.; Hora, S.C.

    1988-01-01

    Industry data representing the time to recovery of loss of off-site power at nuclear power plants for 63 incidents caused by plant-centered losses, grid losses, or severe weather losses are fit with exponential, lognormal, gamma and Weibull probability models. A Bayesian analysis is used to compare the adequacy of each of these models and to provide uncertainty bounds on each of the fitted models. A composite model that combines the probability models fitted to each of the three sources of data is presented as a method for predicting the time to recovery of loss of off-site power. The composite model is very general and can be made site specific by making adjustments on the models used, such as might occur due to the type of switchyard configuration or type of grid, and by adjusting the weights on the individual models, such as might occur with weather conditions existing at a particular plant. Adjustments in the composite model are shown for different models used for switchyard configuration and for different weights due to weather. Bayesian approaches are also presented for modeling the frequency of initiating events leading to loss of off-site power. One Bayesian model assumes that all plants share a common incidence rate for loss of off-site power, while the other Bayesian approach models the incidence rate for each plant relative to the incidence rates of all other plants. Combining the Bayesian models for the frequency of the initiating events with the composite Bayesian model for recovery provides the necessary vehicle for a complete model that incorporates uncertainty into a probabilistic risk assessment

  6. A methodological framework to support the initiation, design and institutionalization of participatory modeling processes in water resources management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Halbe, Johannes; Pahl-Wostl, Claudia; Adamowski, Jan

    2018-01-01

    Multiple barriers constrain the widespread application of participatory methods in water management, including the more technical focus of most water agencies, additional cost and time requirements for stakeholder involvement, as well as institutional structures that impede collaborative management. This paper presents a stepwise methodological framework that addresses the challenges of context-sensitive initiation, design and institutionalization of participatory modeling processes. The methodological framework consists of five successive stages: (1) problem framing and stakeholder analysis, (2) process design, (3) individual modeling, (4) group model building, and (5) institutionalized participatory modeling. The Management and Transition Framework is used for problem diagnosis (Stage One), context-sensitive process design (Stage Two) and analysis of requirements for the institutionalization of participatory water management (Stage Five). Conceptual modeling is used to initiate participatory modeling processes (Stage Three) and ensure a high compatibility with quantitative modeling approaches (Stage Four). This paper describes the proposed participatory model building (PMB) framework and provides a case study of its application in Québec, Canada. The results of the Québec study demonstrate the applicability of the PMB framework for initiating and designing participatory model building processes and analyzing barriers towards institutionalization.

  7. Analysis of growth of broilers with restricting and unrestricting initial body weight in Gompertz-Laird model in different environments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sahin Cadirci

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available The objectives of the present study were twofold. The first objective was to compare the original Gompertz-Laird model with two other versions of the Gompertz-Laird models where the model parameter of the initial body weight (BW0 was restricted in two different ways: 1 BW0 was set to be the mean of the observed initial body weights, 2 BW0 was allowed to vary within an interval of ±3σp around the mean of the initial observed body weights. The second objective was to estimate growth curve parameters for live weight of broilers using the selected form of the model, then to investigate the effect of environmental fluctuations on the model parameters. Data were obtained from the 278 broilers that were reared in diverse environments where temperature, sex, and feeding regimes were the factors creating the environmental diversity. Models were compared using coefficients of determination (R2, correlation between the observed and the estimated growth curves (r, residual standard deviation (RSD, and the estimated mature body weight (BWa. The restrictions applied on BW0 did not improve the fitting of Gompertz-Laird model, and resulted in estimating model parameters that are out of the parameter space. The unrestricted form of the Gompertz-Laird model was, however, observed to be suitable for explaining the growth of broilers. Broilers subjected to 21°C reached the age of maximum growth about 3 days later than the broilers subjected to 30 oC. The initial specific growth rate (L and the rate of exponential decay (K of the initial specific growth rate were lower in 21°C than 30°C. The model parameters of BW0, L, and K were affected by differences in feeding regimes.

  8. The US President's Malaria Initiative, Plasmodium falciparum transmission and mortality: A modelling study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winskill, Peter; Slater, Hannah C; Griffin, Jamie T; Ghani, Azra C; Walker, Patrick G T

    2017-11-01

    Although significant progress has been made in reducing malaria transmission globally in recent years, a large number of people remain at risk and hence the gains made are fragile. Funding lags well behind amounts needed to protect all those at risk and ongoing contributions from major donors, such as the President's Malaria Initiative (PMI), are vital to maintain progress and pursue further reductions in burden. We use a mathematical modelling approach to estimate the impact of PMI investments to date in reducing malaria burden and to explore the potential negative impact on malaria burden should a proposed 44% reduction in PMI funding occur. We combined an established mathematical model of Plasmodium falciparum transmission dynamics with epidemiological, intervention, and PMI-financing data to estimate the contribution PMI has made to malaria control via funding for long-lasting insecticide treated nets (LLINs), indoor residual spraying (IRS), and artemisinin combination therapies (ACTs). We estimate that PMI has prevented 185 million (95% CrI: 138 million, 230 million) malaria cases and saved 940,049 (95% CrI: 545,228, 1.4 million) lives since 2005. If funding is maintained, PMI-funded interventions are estimated to avert a further 162 million (95% CrI: 116 million, 194 million) cases, saving a further 692,589 (95% CrI: 392,694, 955,653) lives between 2017 and 2020. With an estimate of US$94 (95% CrI: US$51, US$166) per Disability Adjusted Life Year (DALY) averted, PMI-funded interventions are highly cost-effective. We also demonstrate the further impact of this investment by reducing caseloads on health systems. If a 44% reduction in PMI funding were to occur, we predict that this loss of direct aid could result in an additional 67 million (95% CrI: 49 million, 82 million) cases and 290,649 (95% CrI: 167,208, 395,263) deaths between 2017 and 2020. We have not modelled indirect impacts of PMI funding (such as health systems strengthening) in this analysis. Our

  9. The US President's Malaria Initiative, Plasmodium falciparum transmission and mortality: A modelling study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Winskill

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Although significant progress has been made in reducing malaria transmission globally in recent years, a large number of people remain at risk and hence the gains made are fragile. Funding lags well behind amounts needed to protect all those at risk and ongoing contributions from major donors, such as the President's Malaria Initiative (PMI, are vital to maintain progress and pursue further reductions in burden. We use a mathematical modelling approach to estimate the impact of PMI investments to date in reducing malaria burden and to explore the potential negative impact on malaria burden should a proposed 44% reduction in PMI funding occur.We combined an established mathematical model of Plasmodium falciparum transmission dynamics with epidemiological, intervention, and PMI-financing data to estimate the contribution PMI has made to malaria control via funding for long-lasting insecticide treated nets (LLINs, indoor residual spraying (IRS, and artemisinin combination therapies (ACTs. We estimate that PMI has prevented 185 million (95% CrI: 138 million, 230 million malaria cases and saved 940,049 (95% CrI: 545,228, 1.4 million lives since 2005. If funding is maintained, PMI-funded interventions are estimated to avert a further 162 million (95% CrI: 116 million, 194 million cases, saving a further 692,589 (95% CrI: 392,694, 955,653 lives between 2017 and 2020. With an estimate of US$94 (95% CrI: US$51, US$166 per Disability Adjusted Life Year (DALY averted, PMI-funded interventions are highly cost-effective. We also demonstrate the further impact of this investment by reducing caseloads on health systems. If a 44% reduction in PMI funding were to occur, we predict that this loss of direct aid could result in an additional 67 million (95% CrI: 49 million, 82 million cases and 290,649 (95% CrI: 167,208, 395,263 deaths between 2017 and 2020. We have not modelled indirect impacts of PMI funding (such as health systems strengthening in this analysis

  10. Crack initiation at a V-notch—comparison between a brittle fracture criterion and the Dugdale cohesive model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henninger, Carole; Leguillon, Dominique; Martin, Eric

    2007-07-01

    The cohesive zone models are an alternative to fracture criteria for the prediction of crack initiation at stress concentration points in brittle materials. We propose here a comparison between the so-called mixed criterion involving a twofold condition (energy and stress) and the Dugdale cohesive model. The predictions of the critical load leading to failure are in perfect agreement and both models conclude that the initial process is unstable except in case of a pre-existing crack. To cite this article: C. Henninger et al., C. R. Mecanique 335 (2007).

  11. A macroscopic physical model for self-initiated upward leaders from tall grounded objects and its application

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chan, Ming-Kit; Chen, Mingli; Du, Ya-ping

    2018-02-01

    This paper presents a macroscopic physical model that can simulate an upward leader initiated from a tall grounded object under thunderclouds. Based on a tri-layer leader channel structure and the energy conservation law, a new equation for estimating the upward leader propagation speed is proposed. Equations for modeling other physical parameters, such as the leader line charge density, leader core radius, leader corona sheath radius, leader current, leader electric field and leader conductance, are also proposed. Besides, a set of initiation and survival criteria for a steady self-initiated upward leader from a tall grounded object is suggested. Based on the suggested criteria and the proposed model, the critical corona and charge amount as well as the minimum height for successful initiation of an upward positive leader (UPL) from a tall grounded object are evaluated and discussed. The model is then used to investigate the general properties of UPLs self-initiated from tall grounded objects with and without the effect of corona space charge layer near the ground under different thunderstorm conditions. The modelling results can well explain the leader properties observed in literature. The model is further tested with two set of experiment data and very promising results are obtained.

  12. Modeling of the chemistry in oxidation flow reactors with high initial NO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, Zhe; Jimenez, Jose L.

    2017-10-01

    Oxidation flow reactors (OFRs) are increasingly employed in atmospheric chemistry research because of their high efficiency of OH radical production from low-pressure Hg lamp emissions at both 185 and 254 nm (OFR185) or 254 nm only (OFR254). OFRs have been thought to be limited to studying low-NO chemistry (in which peroxy radicals (RO2) react preferentially with HO2) because NO is very rapidly oxidized by the high concentrations of O3, HO2, and OH in OFRs. However, many groups are performing experiments by aging combustion exhaust with high NO levels or adding NO in the hopes of simulating high-NO chemistry (in which RO2 + NO dominates). This work systematically explores the chemistry in OFRs with high initial NO. Using box modeling, we investigate the interconversion of N-containing species and the uncertainties due to kinetic parameters. Simple initial injection of NO in OFR185 can result in more RO2 reacted with NO than with HO2 and minor non-tropospheric photolysis, but only under a very narrow set of conditions (high water mixing ratio, low UV intensity, low external OH reactivity (OHRext), and initial NO concentration (NOin) of tens to hundreds of ppb) that account for a very small fraction of the input parameter space. These conditions are generally far away from experimental conditions of published OFR studies with high initial NO. In particular, studies of aerosol formation from vehicle emissions in OFRs often used OHRext and NOin several orders of magnitude higher. Due to extremely high OHRext and NOin, some studies may have resulted in substantial non-tropospheric photolysis, strong delay to RO2 chemistry due to peroxynitrate formation, VOC reactions with NO3 dominating over those with OH, and faster reactions of OH-aromatic adducts with NO2 than those with O2, all of which are irrelevant to ambient VOC photooxidation chemistry. Some of the negative effects are the worst for alkene and aromatic precursors. To avoid undesired chemistry, vehicle emissions

  13. A weighted mean shift, normalized cuts initialized color gradient based geodesic active contour model: applications to histopathology image segmentation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Jun; Janowczyk, Andrew; Chandran, Sharat; Madabhushi, Anant

    2010-03-01

    While geodesic active contours (GAC) have become very popular tools for image segmentation, they are sensitive to model initialization. In order to get an accurate segmentation, the model typically needs to be initialized very close to the true object boundary. Apart from accuracy, automated initialization of the objects of interest is an important pre-requisite to being able to run the active contour model on very large images (such as those found in digitized histopathology). A second limitation of GAC model is that the edge detector function is based on gray scale gradients; color images typically being converted to gray scale prior to computing the gradient. For color images, however, the gray scale gradient results in broken edges and weak boundaries, since the other channels are not exploited for the gradient determination. In this paper we present a new geodesic active contour model that is driven by an accurate and rapid object initialization scheme-weighted mean shift normalized cuts (WNCut). WNCut draws its strength from the integration of two powerful segmentation strategies-mean shift clustering and normalized cuts. WNCut involves first defining a color swatch (typically a few pixels) from the object of interest. A multi-scale mean shift coupled normalized cuts algorithm then rapidly yields an initial accurate detection of all objects in the scene corresponding to the colors in the swatch. This detection result provides the initial boundary for GAC model. The edge-detector function of the GAC model employs a local structure tensor based color gradient, obtained by calculating the local min/max variations contributed from each color channel (e.g. R,G,B or H,S,V). Our color gradient based edge-detector function results in more prominent boundaries compared to classical gray scale gradient based function. We evaluate segmentation results of our new WNCut initialized color gradient based GAC (WNCut-CGAC) model against a popular region-based model (Chan

  14. Model of cap-dependent translation initiation in sea urchin: a step towards the eukaryotic translation regulation network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bellé, Robert; Prigent, Sylvain; Siegel, Anne; Cormier, Patrick

    2010-03-01

    The large and rapid increase in the rate of protein synthesis following fertilization of the sea urchin egg has long been a paradigm of translational control, an important component of the regulation of gene expression in cells. This translational up-regulation is linked to physiological changes that occur upon fertilization and is necessary for entry into first cell division cycle. Accumulated knowledge on cap-dependent initiation of translation makes it suited and timely to start integrating the data into a system view of biological functions. Using a programming environment for system biology coupled with model validation (named Biocham), we have built an integrative model for cap-dependent initiation of translation. The model is described by abstract rules. It contains 51 reactions involved in 74 molecular complexes. The model proved to be coherent with existing knowledge by using queries based on computational tree logic (CTL) as well as Boolean simulations. The model could simulate the change in translation occurring at fertilization in the sea urchin model. It could also be coupled with an existing model designed for cell-cycle control. Therefore, the cap-dependent translation initiation model can be considered a first step towards the eukaryotic translation regulation network.

  15. Improving Weather Research and Forecasting Model Initial Conditions via Surface Pressure Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-09-01

    boundary layer (ABL). It predicts turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) and is a Mellor-Yamada Level 2.5 turbulence closure model. As in Lee et al. (2012...cumulus parameterization (Kain 2004) is employed. For radiation , the Rapid Radiative Transfer Model (RRTM) (Mlawer et al. 1997) is used for...longwave and the Dudhia scheme (Dudhia 1989) for shortwave . The Noah land surface model (Chen and Dudhia 2001) is used to represent land surface processes

  16. Mathematical Modeling in Tobacco Control Research: Initial Results From a Systematic Review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feirman, Shari P; Donaldson, Elisabeth; Glasser, Allison M; Pearson, Jennifer L; Niaura, Ray; Rose, Shyanika W; Abrams, David B; Villanti, Andrea C

    2016-03-01

    The US Food and Drug Administration has expressed interest in using mathematical models to evaluate potential tobacco policies. The goal of this systematic review was to synthesize data from tobacco control studies that employ mathematical models. We searched five electronic databases on July 1, 2013 to identify published studies that used a mathematical model to project a tobacco-related outcome and developed a data extraction form based on the ISPOR-SMDM Modeling Good Research Practices. We developed an organizational framework to categorize these studies and identify models employed across multiple papers. We synthesized results qualitatively, providing a descriptive synthesis of included studies. The 263 studies in this review were heterogeneous with regard to their methodologies and aims. We used the organizational framework to categorize each study according to its objective and map the objective to a model outcome. We identified two types of study objectives (trend and policy/intervention) and three types of model outcomes (change in tobacco use behavior, change in tobacco-related morbidity or mortality, and economic impact). Eighteen models were used across 118 studies. This paper extends conventional systematic review methods to characterize a body of literature on mathematical modeling in tobacco control. The findings of this synthesis can inform the development of new models and the improvement of existing models, strengthening the ability of researchers to accurately project future tobacco-related trends and evaluate potential tobacco control policies and interventions. These findings can also help decision-makers to identify and become oriented with models relevant to their work. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  17. Verification of new model for calculation of critical strain for the initialization of dynamic recrystallization using laboratory rolling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Fabík

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a new model for calculation of critical strain for initialization of dynamic recrystallization. The new model reflects the history of forming in the deformation zone during rolling. In this region of restricted deformation, the strain rate curve for the surface of the strip exhibits two peaks. These are the two reasons why the onset of dynamic recrystallization DRX near the surface of the rolled part occurs later than in theory during strip rolling. The present model had been used in a program for simulation of forming processes with the aid of FEM and a comparison between the physical experiment and a mathematical model had been drawn.

  18. Convergence of a continuous BGK model for initial boundary-value problems for conservation laws

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Driss Seghir

    2001-11-01

    Full Text Available We consider a scalar conservation law in the quarter plane. This equation is approximated in a continuous kinetic Bhatnagar-Gross-Krook (BGK model. The convergence of the model towards the unique entropy solution is established in the space of functions of bounded variation, using kinetic entropy inequalities, without special restriction on the flux nor on the equilibrium problem's data. As an application, we establish the hydrodynamic limit for a $2imes2$ relaxation system with general data. Also we construct a new family of convergent continuous BGK models with simple maxwellians different from the $chi$ models.

  19. Integrated hydrological modelling of a managed coastal Mediterranean wetland (Rhone delta, France: initial calibration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Chauvelon

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a model of a heavily managed coastal Mediterranean wetland. The hydrosystem studied , called ``Ile de Camargue', is the central part of the Rhone river delta. It comprises flat agricultural drainage basins, marshes, and shallow brackish lagoons whose connection to the sea is managed. This hydrosystem is subject to strong natural hydrological variability due to the combination of a Mediterranean climate and the artificial hydrological regime imposed by flooded rice cultivation. To quantify the hydrological balance at different spatial and temporal scales, a simplified model is developed — including the basin and the lagoons — using a time step that enables the temporal dynamic to be reproduced that is adapted to data availability. This modelling task takes into account the functioning of the natural and anthropogenic components of the hydrosystem. A conceptual approach is used for modelling drainage from the catchment, using a GIS to estimate water input for rice irrigation. The lagoon system is modelled using a two-dimensional finite element hydrodynamic model. Simulated results from the hydrodynamic model run under various hydro-climatic forcing conditions (water level, wind speed and direction, sea connection are used to calculate hydraulic exchanges between lagoon sub units considered as boxes. Finally, the HIC ('Hydrologie de l’Ile de Camargue' conceptual model is applied to simulate the water inputs and exchanges between the different units, together with the salt balance in the hydrosystem during a calibration period. Keywords: water management,conceptual hydrological model, hydrodynamic model, box model, GIS, Rhone delta, Camargue.

  20. Initial Analysis of and Predictive Model Development for Weather Reroute Advisory Use

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arneson, Heather M.

    2016-01-01

    In response to severe weather conditions, traffic management coordinators specify reroutes to route air traffic around affected regions of airspace. Providing analysis and recommendations of available reroute options would assist the traffic management coordinators in making more efficient rerouting decisions. These recommendations can be developed by examining historical data to determine which previous reroute options were used in similar weather and traffic conditions. Essentially, using previous information to inform future decisions. This paper describes the initial steps and methodology used towards this goal. A method to extract relevant features from the large volume of weather data to quantify the convective weather scenario during a particular time range is presented. Similar routes are clustered. A description of the algorithm to identify which cluster of reroute advisories were actually followed by pilots is described. Models built for fifteen of the top twenty most frequently used reroute clusters correctly predict the use of the cluster for over 60 of the test examples. Results are preliminary but indicate that the methodology is worth pursuing with modifications based on insight gained from this analysis.

  1. Mountains on Io: High-resolution Galileo observations, initial interpretations, and formation models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turtle, E.P.; Jaeger, W.L.; Keszthelyi, L.P.; McEwen, A.S.; Milazzo, M.; Moore, J.; Phillips, C.B.; Radebaugh, J.; Simonelli, D.; Chuang, F.; Schuster, P.; Alexander, D.D.A.; Capraro, K.; Chang, S.-H.; Chen, A.C.; Clark, J.; Conner, D.L.; Culver, A.; Handley, T.H.; Jensen, D.N.; Knight, D.D.; LaVoie, S.K.; McAuley, M.; Mego, V.; Montoya, O.; Mortensen, H.B.; Noland, S.J.; Patel, R.R.; Pauro, T.M.; Stanley, C.L.; Steinwand, D.J.; Thaller, T.F.; Woncik, P.J.; Yagi, G.M.; Yoshimizu, J.R.; Alvarez Del Castillo, E.M.; Beyer, R.; Branston, D.; Fishburn, M.B.; Muller, Birgit; Ragan, R.; Samarasinha, N.; Anger, C.D.; Cunningham, C.; Little, B.; Arriola, S.; Carr, M.H.; Asphaug, E.; Morrison, D.; Rages, K.; Banfield, D.; Bell, M.; Burns, J.A.; Carcich, B.; Clark, B.; Currier, N.; Dauber, I.; Gierasch, P.J.; Helfenstein, P.; Mann, M.; Othman, O.; Rossier, L.; Solomon, N.; Sullivan, R.; Thomas, P.C.; Veverka, J.; Becker, T.; Edwards, K.; Gaddis, L.; Kirk, R.; Lee, E.; Rosanova, T.; Sucharski, R.M.; Beebe, R.F.; Simon, A.; Belton, M.J.S.; Bender, K.; Fagents, S.; Figueredo, P.; Greeley, R.; Homan, K.; Kadel, S.; Kerr, J.; Klemaszewski, J.; Lo, E.; Schwarz, W.; Williams, D.; Williams, K.; Bierhaus, B.; Brooks, S.; Chapman, C.R.; Merline, B.; Keller, J.; Tamblyn, P.; Bouchez, A.; Dyundian, U.; Ingersoll, A.P.; Showman, A.; Spitale, J.; Stewart, S.; Vasavada, A.; Breneman, H.H.; Cunningham, W.F.; Johnson, T.V.; Jones, T.J.; Kaufman, J.M.; Klaasen, K.P.; Levanas, G.; Magee, K.P.; Meredith, M.K.; Orton, G.S.; Senske, D.A.; West, A.; Winther, D.; Collins, G.; Fripp, W.J.; Head, J. W.; Pappalardo, R.; Pratt, S.; Prockter, L.; Spaun, N.; Colvin, T.; Davies, M.; DeJong, E.M.; Hall, J.; Suzuki, S.; Gorjian, Z.; Denk, T.; Giese, B.; Koehler, U.; Neukum, G.; Oberst, J.; Roatsch, T.; Tost, W.; Wagner, R.; Dieter, N.; Durda, D.; Geissler, P.; Greenberg, R.J.; Hoppa, G.; Plassman, J.; Tufts, R.; Fanale, F.P.; Granahan, J.C.

    2001-01-01

    During three close flybys in late 1999 and early 2000 the Galileo spacecraft ac-quired new observations of the mountains that tower above Io's surface. These images have revealed surprising variety in the mountains' morphologies. They range from jagged peaks several kilometers high to lower, rounded structures. Some are very smooth, others are covered by numerous parallel ridges. Many mountains have margins that are collapsing outward in large landslides or series of slump blocks, but a few have steep, scalloped scarps. From these observations we can gain insight into the structure and material properties of Io's crust as well as into the erosional processes acting on Io. We have also investigated formation mechanisms proposed for these structures using finite-element analysis. Mountain formation might be initiated by global compression due to the high rate of global subsidence associated with Io's high resurfacing rate; however, our models demonstrate that this hypothesis lacks a mechanism for isolating the mountains. The large fraction (???40%) of mountains that are associated with paterae suggests that in some cases these features are tectonically related. Therefore we have also simulated the stresses induced in Io's crust by a combination of a thermal upwelling in the mantle with global lithospheric compression and have shown that this can focus compressional stresses. If this mechanism is responsible for some of Io's mountains, it could also explain the common association of mountains with paterae. Copyright 2001 by the American Geophysical Union.

  2. Catalyzing Interdisciplinary Research and Training: Initial Outcomes and Evolution of the Affinity Research Collaboratives Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ravid, Katya; Seta, Francesca; Center, David; Waters, Gloria; Coleman, David

    2017-10-01

    Team science has been recognized as critical to solving increasingly complex biomedical problems and advancing discoveries in the prevention, diagnosis, and treatment of human disease. In 2009, the Evans Center for Interdisciplinary Biomedical Research (ECIBR) was established in the Department of Medicine at Boston University School of Medicine as a new organizational paradigm to promote interdisciplinary team science. The ECIBR is made up of affinity research collaboratives (ARCs), consisting of investigators from different departments and disciplines who come together to study biomedical problems that are relevant to human disease and not under interdisciplinary investigation at the university. Importantly, research areas are identified by investigators according to their shared interests. ARC proposals are evaluated by a peer review process, and collaboratives are funded annually for up to three years.Initial outcomes of the first 12 ARCs show the value of this model in fostering successful biomedical collaborations that lead to publications, extramural grants, research networking, and training. The most successful ARCs have been developed into more sustainable organizational entities, including centers, research cores, translational research projects, and training programs.To further expand team science at Boston University, the Interdisciplinary Biomedical Research Office was established in 2015 to more fully engage the entire university, not just the medical campus, in interdisciplinary research using the ARC mechanism. This approach to promoting team science may be useful to other academic organizations seeking to expand interdisciplinary research at their institutions.

  3. Recent Upgrades to NASA SPoRT Initialization Datasets for the Environmental Modeling System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Case, Jonathan L.; LaFontaine, Frank J.; Molthan, Andrew L.; Zavodsky, Bradley T.; Rozumalski, Robert A.

    2012-01-01

    The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center has developed several products for its National Weather Service (NWS) partners that can initialize specific fields for local model runs within the NOAA/NWS Science and Training Resource Center (STRC) Environmental Modeling System (EMS). In last year's NWA abstract on this topic, the suite of SPoRT products supported in the STRC EMS was presented, which includes a Sea Surface Temperature (SST) composite, a Great Lakes sea-ice extent, a Green Vegetation Fraction (GVF) composite, and NASA Land Information System (LIS) gridded output. This abstract and companion presentation describes recent upgrades made to the SST and GVF composites, as well as the real-time LIS runs. The Great Lakes sea-ice product is unchanged from 2011. The SPoRT SST composite product has been expanded geographically and as a result, the resolution has been coarsened from 1 km to 2 km to accommodate the larger domain. The expanded domain covers much of the northern hemisphere from eastern Asia to western Europe (0 N to 80 N latitude and 150 E to 10 E longitude). In addition, the NESDIS POES-GOES product was added to fill in gaps caused by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) being unable to sense in cloudy regions, replacing the recently-lost Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for EOS with negligible change to product fidelity. The SST product now runs twice per day for Terra and Aqua combined data collections from 0000 to 1200 UTC and from 1200 to 0000 UTC, with valid analysis times at 0600 and 1800 UTC. The twice-daily compositing technique reduces the overall latency of the previous version while still representing the diurnal cycle characteristics. The SST composites are available at approximately four hours after the end of each collection period (i.e. 1600 UTC for the nighttime analysis and 0400 UTC for the daytime analysis). The real-time MODIS GVF composite has only received minor updates in the

  4. Counseling as a Stochastic Process: Fitting a Markov Chain Model to Initial Counseling Interviews

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lichtenberg, James W.; Hummel, Thomas J.

    1976-01-01

    The goodness of fit of a first-order Markov chain model to six counseling interviews was assessed by using chi-square tests of homogeneity and simulating sampling distributions of selected process characteristics against which the same characteristics in the actual interviews were compared. The model fit four of the interviews. Presented at AERA,…

  5. Determination of the Support Level of Local Organizations in a Model Forest Initiative: Do Local Stakeholders Have Willingness to Be Involved in the Model Forest Development?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmet Tolunay

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Voluntary cooperation and the support of stakeholders carry a major importance in the development of Model Forests. The identification of the support level of local organizations as stakeholders in the Bucak Model Forest initiative, located in the Mediterranean region of Turkey, constitutes the theme of this study. Within this scope, the views of the stakeholders comprising local government units (LGUs, non-governmental organizations (NGOs, village councils (VCs, professional organizations (POs and forest products enterprises (FPEs located in the district of Bucak were collected by utilizing a survey technique. The data were analysed by using non-parametric statistical analyses due to the absence of a normal distribution. The results show that the information provided about the Model Forest concept to the stakeholders located in the district on the Bucak Model Forest initiative was identified as a factor impacting the support level. Moreover, it was also observed that the stakeholders were more willing to provide advisory support rather than financial support. NGOs and VCs were identified as stakeholders who could not provide financial support due to their restricted budgets. We discuss the benefits for a Model Forest initiative of establishing international cooperation to strengthen the local and regional sustainable development process.

  6. FY17 Status Report on the Initial Development of a Constitutive Model for Grade 91 Steel

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Messner, M. C. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Phan, V. -T. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Sham, T. -L. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)

    2017-07-01

    Grade 91 is a candidate structural material for high temperature advanced reactor applications. Existing ASME Section III, Subsection HB, Subpart B simplified design rules based on elastic analysis are setup as conservative screening tools with the intent to supplement these screening rules with full inelastic analysis when required. The Code provides general guidelines for suitable inelastic models but does not provide constitutive model implementations. This report describes the development of an inelastic constitutive model for Gr. 91 steel aimed at fulfilling the ASME Code requirements and being included into a new Section III Code appendix, HBB-Z. A large database of over 300 experiments on Gr. 91 was collected and converted to a standard XML form. Five families of Gr. 91 material models were identified in the literature. Of these five, two are potentially suitable for use in the ASME code. These two models were implemented and evaluated against the experimental database. Both models have deficiencies so the report develops a framework for developing and calibrating an improved model. This required creating a new modeling method for representing changes in material rate sensitivity across the full ASME allowable temperature range for Gr. 91 structural components: room temperature to 650° C. On top of this framework for rate sensitivity the report describes calibrating a model for work hardening and softening in the material using genetic algorithm optimization. Future work will focus on improving this trial model by including tension/compression asymmetry observed in experiments and necessary to capture material ratcheting under zero mean stress and by improving the optimization and analysis framework.

  7. Highly Adoptable Improvement: A Practical Model and Toolkit to Address Adoptability and Sustainability of Quality Improvement Initiatives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hayes, Christopher William; Goldmann, Don

    2018-03-01

    Failure to consider the impact of change on health care providers is a barrier to success. Initiatives that increase workload and have low perceived value are less likely to be adopted. A practical model and supporting tools were developed on the basis of existing theories to help quality improvement (QI) programs design more adoptable approaches. Models and theories from the diffusion of innovation and work stress literature were reviewed, and key-informant interviews and site visits were conducted to develop a draft Highly Adoptable Improvement (HAI) Model. A list of candidate factors considered for inclusion in the draft model was presented to an expert panel. A modified Delphi process was used to narrow the list of factors into main themes and refine the model. The resulting model and supporting tools were pilot tested by 16 improvement advisors for face validity and usability. The HAI Model depicts how workload and perceived value influence adoptability of QI initiatives. The supporting tools include an assessment guide and suggested actions that QI programs can use to help design interventions that are likely to be adopted. Improvement advisors reported good face validity and usability and found that the model and the supporting tools helped address key issues related to adoption and reported that they would continue to use them. The HAI Model addresses important issues regarding workload and perceived value of improvement initiatives. Pilot testing suggests that the model and supporting tools are helpful and practical in guiding design and implementation of adoptable and sustainable QI interventions. Copyright © 2017 The Joint Commission. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. Preliminary Results of a U.S. Deep South Modeling Experiment Using NASA SPoRT Initialization Datasets for Operational National Weather Service Local Model Runs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, Lance; Medlin, Jeffrey M.; Case, Jon

    2012-01-01

    A joint collaborative modeling effort among the NWS offices in Mobile, AL, and Houston, TX, and NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center began during the 2011-2012 cold season, and continued into the 2012 warm season. The focus was on two frequent U.S. Deep South forecast challenges: the initiation of deep convection during the warm season; and heavy precipitation during the cold season. We wanted to examine the impact of certain NASA produced products on the Weather Research and Forecasting Environmental Modeling System in improving the model representation of mesoscale boundaries such as the local sea-, bay- and land-breezes (which often leads to warm season convective initiation); and improving the model representation of slow moving, or quasi-stationary frontal boundaries (which focus cold season storm cell training and heavy precipitation). The NASA products were: the 4-km Land Information System, a 1-km sea surface temperature analysis, and a 4-km greenness vegetation fraction analysis. Similar domains were established over the southeast Texas and Alabama coastlines, each with an outer grid with a 9 km spacing and an inner nest with a 3 km grid spacing. The model was run at each NWS office once per day out to 24 hours from 0600 UTC, using the NCEP Global Forecast System for initial and boundary conditions. Control runs without the NASA products were made at the NASA SPoRT Center. The NCAR Model Evaluation Tools verification package was used to evaluate both the positive and negative impacts of the NASA products on the model forecasts. Select case studies will be presented to highlight the influence of the products.

  9. Compilation of watershed models for tributaries to the Great Lakes, United States, as of 2010, and identification of watersheds for future modeling for the Great Lakes Restoration Initiative

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coon, William F.; Murphy, Elizabeth A.; Soong, David T.; Sharpe, Jennifer B.

    2011-01-01

    As part of the Great Lakes Restoration Initiative (GLRI) during 2009–10, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) compiled a list of existing watershed models that had been created for tributaries within the United States that drain to the Great Lakes. Established Federal programs that are overseen by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) are responsible for most of the existing watershed models for specific tributaries. The NOAA Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory (GLERL) uses the Large Basin Runoff Model to provide data for the management of water levels in the Great Lakes by estimating United States and Canadian inflows to the Great Lakes from 121 large watersheds. GLERL also simulates streamflows in 34 U.S. watersheds by a grid-based model, the Distributed Large Basin Runoff Model. The NOAA National Weather Service uses the Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting model to predict flows at river forecast sites. The USACE created or funded the creation of models for at least 30 tributaries to the Great Lakes to better understand sediment erosion, transport, and aggradation processes that affect Federal navigation channels and harbors. Many of the USACE hydrologic models have been coupled with hydrodynamic and sediment-transport models that simulate the processes in the stream and harbor near the mouth of the modeled tributary. Some models either have been applied or have the capability of being applied across the entire Great Lakes Basin; they are (1) the SPAtially Referenced Regressions On Watershed attributes (SPARROW) model, which was developed by the USGS; (2) the High Impact Targeting (HIT) and Digital Watershed models, which were developed by the Institute of Water Research at Michigan State University; (3) the Long-Term Hydrologic Impact Assessment (L–THIA) model, which was developed by researchers at Purdue University; and (4) the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model, which was

  10. TPACK MODEL IN DEGREE STUDIES FOR INITIAL TEACHER TRAINING IN ICT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ISABEL Mª GÓMEZ TRIGUEROS

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available  Under the abbreviation TPACK we mention the acronym of “Technological Pedagogical Content Knowledge” (TPCK or TPACK is made. It is a model of teaching and learning (E-A that identifies the types of knowledge that a teacher needs to master to integrate the Information and Communication Technologies (ICT in an effective way in imparting education. It is included among the cognitive models in cooperative environments, where, in addition, the technology is used. The pioneers in implementing this model are teachers Punya Mishra and Matthew J. Koehler, of Michigan State University (between 2006 and 2009. 

  11. Using system dynamics modeling to understand the impact of social change initiatives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirsch, Gary B; Levine, Ralph; Miller, Robin Lin

    2007-06-01

    Community psychologists have a long history of interest in understanding social systems and how to bring about enduring positive change in these systems. However, the methods that community psychologists use to anticipate and evaluate the changes that result from system change efforts are less well developed. In the current paper, we introduce readers to system dynamics modeling, an action research approach to studying complex systems and the consequences of system change. We illustrate this approach by describing a system dynamics model of educational reform. We provide readers with an introduction to system dynamics modeling, as well as describe the strengths and limitations of the approach for application to community psychology.

  12. Building an International Initiative to Infuse Novel Cancer Models into the Research Community | Office of Cancer Genomics

    Science.gov (United States)

    My name is Caitlyn Barrett and I am the Scientific Program Manager for the Human Cancer Model Initiative (HCMI) in the Office of Cancer Genomics (OCG). In my role within the HCMI, I am helping to establish communication pathways and build the foundation for collaboration that will enable the completion of the Initiative’s aim to develop as many as 1000 next-generation cancer models, established from patient tumors and accompanied by clinical and molecular data.

  13. Unravelling the influence of smoking initiation and cessation on premature mortality using a common latent factor model

    OpenAIRE

    Silvia Balia; Andrew M. Jones

    2007-01-01

    Duration models for lifespan and smoking, that focus on the socio-economic gradient in smoking durations and length of life, are estimated controlling for individual-specific unobservable heterogeneity by means of a latent factor model. The latent factor influences the risk of starting and quitting smoking as well as the hazard of mortality. Frailty could in°uence smoking behaviour through two mechanisms: the effect of life expectancy on initiation of smok- ing and the impact of adverse healt...

  14. Modeling In-Channel Debris Flow Initiation Pre- and Post-Fire within the San Gabriel Mountains, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zdeb, B.; Holo, S.; Palucis, M. C.; Lamb, M. P.

    2016-12-01

    Debris flows are an important geomorphic agent in transporting sediment and eroding rock in mountainous terrain, and they pose significant hazards to people and infrastructure. Debris flows initiated by runoff appear to be a dominant transport process in steep bedrock landscapes, especially where channels fill by dry ravel following wildfire, but our ability to predict where these flows will initiate within the channel network is mainly based on empirical relationships. Here we explore how precipitation rate, precipitation duration, and previously documented decreases in the median grain size following post-fire ravel accumulation affect in-channel debris flow initiation. We utilized ANUGA, a python-based hydrodynamic model, to simulate runoff depths for different storm events for several steep catchments that have recently burned within the San Gabriel Mountains, California. We model peak and average flow depths along the channel network for one-, five-, ten- and 100- year storms from which we calculate the Shield's stress. We compare the modeled Shield's stress to the critical Shield's stress for debris flow initiation by runoff along the entire channel network for both pre- and post-fire conditions. Results allow identification along the channel network where debris flows are most likely to initiate for different storm events, provides a framework for hazard-mitigation efforts, -and demonstrates how sediment transport by debris flows might be included in landscape evolution models.

  15. Multi-model assessment of the impact of soil moisture initialization on mid-latitude summer predictability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ardilouze, Constantin; Batté, L.; Bunzel, F.; Decremer, D.; Déqué, M.; Doblas-Reyes, F. J.; Douville, H.; Fereday, D.; Guemas, V.; MacLachlan, C.; Müller, W.; Prodhomme, C.

    2017-12-01

    Land surface initial conditions have been recognized as a potential source of predictability in sub-seasonal to seasonal forecast systems, at least for near-surface air temperature prediction over the mid-latitude continents. Yet, few studies have systematically explored such an influence over a sufficient hindcast period and in a multi-model framework to produce a robust quantitative assessment. Here, a dedicated set of twin experiments has been carried out with boreal summer retrospective forecasts over the 1992-2010 period performed by five different global coupled ocean-atmosphere models. The impact of a realistic versus climatological soil moisture initialization is assessed in two regions with high potential previously identified as hotspots of land-atmosphere coupling, namely the North American Great Plains and South-Eastern Europe. Over the latter region, temperature predictions show a significant improvement, especially over the Balkans. Forecast systems better simulate the warmest summers if they follow pronounced dry initial anomalies. It is hypothesized that models manage to capture a positive feedback between high temperature and low soil moisture content prone to dominate over other processes during the warmest summers in this region. Over the Great Plains, however, improving the soil moisture initialization does not lead to any robust gain of forecast quality for near-surface temperature. It is suggested that models biases prevent the forecast systems from making the most of the improved initial conditions.

  16. Can Impacts of Climate Change and Agricultural Adaptation Strategies Be Accurately Quantified if Crop Models Are Annually Re-Initialized?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Basso, Bruno; Hyndman, David W; Kendall, Anthony D; Grace, Peter R; Robertson, G Philip

    2015-01-01

    Estimates of climate change impacts on global food production are generally based on statistical or process-based models. Process-based models can provide robust predictions of agricultural yield responses to changing climate and management. However, applications of these models often suffer from bias due to the common practice of re-initializing soil conditions to the same state for each year of the forecast period. If simulations neglect to include year-to-year changes in initial soil conditions and water content related to agronomic management, adaptation and mitigation strategies designed to maintain stable yields under climate change cannot be properly evaluated. We apply a process-based crop system model that avoids re-initialization bias to demonstrate the importance of simulating both year-to-year and cumulative changes in pre-season soil carbon, nutrient, and water availability. Results are contrasted with simulations using annual re-initialization, and differences are striking. We then demonstrate the potential for the most likely adaptation strategy to offset climate change impacts on yields using continuous simulations through the end of the 21st century. Simulations that annually re-initialize pre-season soil carbon and water contents introduce an inappropriate yield bias that obscures the potential for agricultural management to ameliorate the deleterious effects of rising temperatures and greater rainfall variability.

  17. Innate immunity drives the initiation of a murine model of primary biliary cirrhosis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chao-Hsuan Chang

    Full Text Available Invariant natural killer T (iNKT cells play complex roles in bridging innate and adaptive immunity by engaging with glycolipid antigens presented by CD1d. Our earlier work suggested that iNKT cells were involved in the initiation of the original loss of tolerance in primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC. To address this issue in more detail and, in particular, to focus on whether iNKT cells activated by a Th2-biasing agonist (2s,3s,4r-1-O-(α-D-galactopyranosyl-N-tetracosanoyl-2-amino-1,3,4-nonanetriol (OCH, can influence the development of PBC in a xenobiotic-induced PBC murine model. Groups of mice were treated with either OCH or, as a control, α-galactosylceramide (α-GalCer and thence serially followed for cytokine production, markers of T cell activation, liver histopathology and anti-mitochondrial antibody responses. Further, additional groups of CD1d deleted mice were similarly studied. Our data indicate that administration of OCH has a dramatic influence with exacerbation of portal inflammation and hepatic fibrosis similar to mice treated with α-GalCer. Further, iNKT cell deficient CD1d knockout mice have decreased inflammatory portal cell infiltrates and reduced anti-mitochondrial antibody responses. We submit that activation of iNKT cells can occur via overlapping and/or promiscuous pathways and highlight the critical role of innate immunity in the natural history of autoimmune cholangitis. These data have implications for humans with PBC and emphasize that therapeutic strategies must focus not only on suppressing adaptive responses, but also innate immunity.

  18. An initial research on solute migration model coupled with adsorption of surface complexation in groundwater

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Qian Tianwei; Chen Fanrong

    2003-01-01

    The influence of solution chemical action in groundwater on solute migration has attracted increasing public attention, especially adsorption action occurring on surface of solid phase and liquid phase, which has play a great role in solute migration. There are various interpretations on adsorption mechanism, in which surface complexion is one of successful hypothesis. This paper first establishes a geochemical model based on surface complexion and then coupled it with traditional advection-dispersion model to constitute a solute migration model, which can deal with surface complexion action. The simulated results fit very well with those obtained by the precursors, as compared with a published famous example, which indicates that the model set up by this paper is successful. (authors)

  19. Initial virtual flight test for a dynamically similar aircraft model with control augmentation system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Linliang Guo

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available To satisfy the validation requirements of flight control law for advanced aircraft, a wind tunnel based virtual flight testing has been implemented in a low speed wind tunnel. A 3-degree-of-freedom gimbal, ventrally installed in the model, was used in conjunction with an actively controlled dynamically similar model of aircraft, which was equipped with the inertial measurement unit, attitude and heading reference system, embedded computer and servo-actuators. The model, which could be rotated around its center of gravity freely by the aerodynamic moments, together with the flow field, operator and real time control system made up the closed-loop testing circuit. The model is statically unstable in longitudinal direction, and it can fly stably in wind tunnel with the function of control augmentation of the flight control laws. The experimental results indicate that the model responds well to the operator’s instructions. The response of the model in the tests shows reasonable agreement with the simulation results. The difference of response of angle of attack is less than 0.5°. The effect of stability augmentation and attitude control law was validated in the test, meanwhile the feasibility of virtual flight test technique treated as preliminary evaluation tool for advanced flight vehicle configuration research was also verified.

  20. Updated global soil map for the Weather Research and Forecasting model and soil moisture initialization for the Noah land surface model

    Science.gov (United States)

    DY, C. Y.; Fung, J. C. H.

    2016-08-01

    A meteorological model requires accurate initial conditions and boundary conditions to obtain realistic numerical weather predictions. The land surface controls the surface heat and moisture exchanges, which can be determined by the physical properties of the soil and soil state variables, subsequently exerting an effect on the boundary layer meteorology. The initial and boundary conditions of soil moisture are currently obtained via National Centers for Environmental Prediction FNL (Final) Operational Global Analysis data, which are collected operationally in 1° by 1° resolutions every 6 h. Another input to the model is the soil map generated by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations - United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (FAO-UNESCO) soil database, which combines several soil surveys from around the world. Both soil moisture from the FNL analysis data and the default soil map lack accuracy and feature coarse resolutions, particularly for certain areas of China. In this study, we update the global soil map with data from Beijing Normal University in 1 km by 1 km grids and propose an alternative method of soil moisture initialization. Simulations of the Weather Research and Forecasting model show that spinning-up the soil moisture improves near-surface temperature and relative humidity prediction using different types of soil moisture initialization. Explanations of that improvement and improvement of the planetary boundary layer height in performing process analysis are provided.

  1. Initializing the WRF Model with Tropical Cyclone Real-Time Reports Using the Ensemble Kalman Filter Algorithm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Du, Tien Duc; Ngo-Duc, Thanh; Kieu, Chanh

    2017-07-01

    This study presents an approach to assimilate tropical cyclone (TC) real-time reports and the University of Wisconsin-Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CIMSS) Atmospheric Motion Vectors (AMV) data into the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model for TC forecast applications. Unlike current methods in which TC real-time reports are used to either generate a bogus vortex or spin up a model initial vortex, the proposed approach ingests the TC real-time reports through blending a dynamically consistent synthetic vortex structure with the CIMSS-AMV data. The blended dataset is then assimilated into the WRF initial condition, using the local ensemble transform Kalman filter (LETKF) algorithm. Retrospective experiments for a number of TC cases in the northwestern Pacific basin during 2013-2014 demonstrate that this approach could effectively increase both the TC circulation and enhance the large-scale environment that the TCs are embedded in. Further evaluation of track and intensity forecast errors shows that track forecasts benefit more from improvement in the large-scale flow at 4-5-day lead times, whereas the intensity improvement is minimal. While the difference between the track and intensity improvement could be due to a specific model configuration, this result appears to be consistent with the recent reports of insignificant impacts of inner core data assimilation in operational TC models at the long range of 4-5 days. The new approach will be most beneficial for future regional TC models that are directly initialized from very high-resolution global models whose storm initial locations are sufficiently accurate at the initial analysis that there is no need to carry out any artificial vortex removal or filtering steps.

  2. BISON Modeling of Reactivity-Initiated Accident Experiments in a Static Environment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Folsom, Charles P.; Jensen, Colby B.; Williamson, Richard L.; Woolstenhulme, Nicolas E.; Ban, Heng; Wachs, Daniel M.

    2016-09-01

    In conjunction with the restart of the TREAT reactor and the design of test vehicles, modeling and simulation efforts are being used to model the response of Accident Tolerant Fuel (ATF) concepts under reactivity insertion accident (RIA) conditions. The purpose of this work is to model a baseline case of a 10 cm long UO2-Zircaloy fuel rodlet using BISON and RELAP5 over a range of energy depositions and with varying reactor power pulse widths. The results show the effect of varying the pulse width and energy deposition on both thermal and mechanical parameters that are important for predicting failure of the fuel rodlet. The combined BISON/RELAP5 model captures coupled thermal and mechanical effects on the fuel-to-cladding gap conductance, cladding-to-coolant heat transfer coefficient and water temperature and pressure that would not be capable in each code individually. These combined effects allow for a more accurate modeling of the thermal and mechanical response in the fuel rodlet and thermal-hydraulics of the test vehicle.

  3. Development of Simplified Probabilistic Risk Assessment Model for Seismic Initiating Event

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    S. Khericha; R. Buell; S. Sancaktar; M. Gonzalez; F. Ferrante

    2012-06-01

    ABSTRACT This paper discusses a simplified method to evaluate seismic risk using a methodology built on dividing the seismic intensity spectrum into multiple discrete bins. The seismic probabilistic risk assessment model uses Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s (NRC’s) full power Standardized Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) model as the starting point for development. The seismic PRA models are integrated with their respective internal events at-power SPAR model. This is accomplished by combining the modified system fault trees from the full power SPAR model with seismic event tree logic. The peak ground acceleration is divided into five bins. The g-value for each bin is estimated using the geometric mean of lower and upper values of that particular bin and the associated frequency for each bin is estimated by taking the difference between upper and lower values of that bin. The component’s fragilities are calculated for each bin using the plant data, if available, or generic values of median peak ground acceleration and uncertainty values for the components. For human reliability analysis (HRA), the SPAR HRA (SPAR-H) method is used which requires the analysts to complete relatively straight forward worksheets that include the performance shaping factors (PSFs). The results are then used to estimate human error probabilities (HEPs) of interest. This work is expected to improve the NRC’s ability to include seismic hazards in risk assessments for operational events in support of the reactor oversight program (e.g., significance determination process).

  4. Puzzling initial conditions in the R{sub h} = ct model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bengochea, Gabriel R. [CONICET-Universidad de Buenos Aires, Instituto de Astronomia y Fisica del Espacio (IAFE), Buenos Aires (Argentina); Leon, Gabriel [Universidad de Buenos Aires, Ciudad Universitaria, PabI, Departamento de Fisica, Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, Buenos Aires (Argentina)

    2016-11-15

    In recent years, some studies have drawn attention to the lack of large-angle correlations in the observed cosmic microwave background (CMB) temperature anisotropies with respect to that predicted within the standard ΛCDM model. Lately, it has been argued that such a lack of correlations could be explained in the framework of the so-called R{sub h} = ct model without inflation. The aim of this work is to study whether there is a mechanism to generate, through a quantum field theory, the primordial power spectrum presented by these authors. Specifically, we consider two different scenarios: first, we assume a scalar field dominating the early Universe in the R{sub h} = ct cosmological model, and second, we deal with the possibility of adding an early inflationary phase to the mentioned model. During the analysis of the consistency between the predicted and observed amplitudes of the CMB temperature anisotropies in both scenarios, we run into deep issues which indicate that it is not clear how to characterize the primordial quantum perturbations within the R{sub h} = ct model. (orig.)

  5. Re-Imagining Initial Multiracial Teacher Education (IMTE) Model through the ODL Philosophy: A Critical Qualitative Meta-Synthesis Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nyoni, J.

    2012-01-01

    This article reports on a critical meta-analysis of empirical studies done by human sciences researchers on the initial multicultural teacher education (IMTE) models in multicultural post-colonial transitional societies with reference to sub-Saharan African states in general and South Africa in particular. Using a critical post-positivist…

  6. A model to determine the initial phase space of a clinical electron beam from measured beam data.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Janssen, J.J.M.; Korevaar, E.W.; Battum, L.J. van; Storchi, P.R.; Huizenga, H.

    2001-01-01

    Advanced electron beam dose calculation models for radiation oncology require as input an initial phase space (IPS) that describes a clinical electron beam. The IPS is a distribution in position, energy and direction of electrons and photons in a plane in front of the patient. A method is presented

  7. Heavy Ion Fusion Science Virtual National Laboratory 1st Quarter FY08 Milestone Report: Report Initial Work on Developing Plasma Modeling Capability in WARP for NDCX Experiments Report. Initial work on developing Plasma Modeling Capability in WARP for NDCX Experiments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Friedman, A.; Cohen, R.H.; Grote, D.P.; Vay, J.-L.

    2007-01-01

    This milestone has been accomplished. The Heavy Ion Fusion Science Virtual National Laboratory (HIFS-VNL) has developed and implemented an initial beam-in-plasma implicit modeling capability in Warp; has carried out tests validating the behavior of the models employed; has compared the results of electrostatic and electromagnetic models when applied to beam expansion in an NDCX-I relevant regime; has compared Warp and LSP results on a problem relevant to NDCX-I; has modeled wave excitation by a rigid beam propagating through plasma; and has implemented and begun testing a more advanced implicit method that correctly captures electron drift motion even when timesteps too large to resolve the electron gyro-period are employed. The HIFS-VNL is well on its way toward having a state-of-the-art source-to-target simulation capability that will enable more effective support of ongoing experiments in the NDCX series and allow more confident planning for future ones

  8. The Gulf of Mexico Research Initiative: A Funding Model for Science, Engineering, and Technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colwell, R. R.

    2016-12-01

    The Deepwater Horizon oil spill, a massive ecological event, resulted in the tragic loss of 11 lives, and an environmental release of more than 130 million gallons of crude oil. Approximately 1.8 million gallons of dispersants were used in remediation efforts. An immediate response by BP was to establish a ten-year research program, with funding of 500 million. The funding was to determine the impact and long-term ecological and public health effects of oil spills and to develop improved preparation in the event of future oil or gas release into the environment. This Gulf of Mexico Research Initiative (GoMRI), established by BP, provided independent leadership for both the program and administration of the 500 million funding, and the Research Board provides oversight, assisted by excellent staff. The Research Board of the GoMRI comprises twenty scientists, many of whom have prior scientific research administrative expertise. The Research Board, in accordance with its charge, develops research programs and carries out their evaluation and oversight, employing the peer review and operational principles of the National Science Foundation and the National Academies of Science. With these guiding principles, the Research Board established procedures for conflict of interest oversight and requesting and evaluating research programs. It has also focused on communicating the research findings accurately and responsibly. The GoMRI Research Board operates with transparency and ensures availability of all scientific results and data. GoMRI, currently midway through its 10-year mandate, has funded more than 3,000 scientists, representing 278 institutions in 42 states and 17 countries, who have produced more than 1,000 peer-reviewed publications to date. The Research Board is exploring mechanisms by which the GoMRI science findings can be communicated to the broader community and the public and to continue availability of data when the program has ended. A major contribution

  9. Source modelling of train noise - Literature review and some initial measurements

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang Xuetao; Jonasson, Hans; Holmberg, Kjell

    2000-07-01

    A literature review of source modelling of railway noise is reported. Measurements on a special test rig at Surahammar and on the new railway line between Arlanda and Stockholm City are reported and analyzed. In the analysis the train is modelled as a number of point sources with or without directivity and each source is combined with analytical sound propagation theory to predict the sound propagation pattern best fitting the measured data. Wheel/rail rolling noise is considered to be the most important noise source. The rolling noise can be modelled as an array of moving point sources, which have a dipole-like horizontal directivity and some kind of vertical directivity. In general it is necessary to distribute the point sources on several heights. Based on our model analysis the source heights for the rolling noise should be below the wheel axles and the most important height is about a quarter of wheel diameter above the railheads. When train speeds are greater than 250 km/h aerodynamic noise will become important and even dominant. It may be important for low frequency components only if the train speed is less than 220 km/h. Little data are available for these cases. It is believed that aerodynamic noise has dipole-like directivity. Its spectrum depends on many factors: speed, railway system, type of train, bogies, wheels, pantograph, presence of barriers and even weather conditions. Other sources such as fans, engine, transmission and carriage bodies are at most second order noise sources, but for trains with a diesel locomotive engine the engine noise will be dominant if train speeds are less than about 100 km/h. The Nord 2000 comprehensive model for sound propagation outdoors, together with the source model that is based on the understandings above, can suitably handle the problems of railway noise propagation in one-third octave bands although there are still problems left to be solved.

  10. Initial assessment of a multi-model approach to spring flood forecasting in Sweden

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olsson, J.; Uvo, C. B.; Foster, K.; Yang, W.

    2015-06-01

    Hydropower is a major energy source in Sweden and proper reservoir management prior to the spring flood onset is crucial for optimal production. This requires useful forecasts of the accumulated discharge in the spring flood period (i.e. the spring-flood volume, SFV). Today's SFV forecasts are generated using a model-based climatological ensemble approach, where time series of precipitation and temperature from historical years are used to force a calibrated and initialised set-up of the HBV model. In this study, a number of new approaches to spring flood forecasting, that reflect the latest developments with respect to analysis and modelling on seasonal time scales, are presented and evaluated. Three main approaches, represented by specific methods, are evaluated in SFV hindcasts for three main Swedish rivers over a 10-year period with lead times between 0 and 4 months. In the first approach, historically analogue years with respect to the climate in the period preceding the spring flood are identified and used to compose a reduced ensemble. In the second, seasonal meteorological ensemble forecasts are used to drive the HBV model over the spring flood period. In the third approach, statistical relationships between SFV and the large-sale atmospheric circulation are used to build forecast models. None of the new approaches consistently outperform the climatological ensemble approach, but for specific locations and lead times improvements of 20-30 % are found. When combining all forecasts in a weighted multi-model approach, a mean improvement over all locations and lead times of nearly 10 % was indicated. This demonstrates the potential of the approach and further development and optimisation into an operational system is ongoing.

  11. Model development of SAS4A and investigation on the initiating phase consequences in LMFRs related with material motion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Niwa, H.

    1994-01-01

    This paper focuses on an analytical aspect of the initiating phase scenario and consequences of postulated core disruptive accident in liquid-metal-cooled fast breeder reactors. An analytical code, SAS4A, has been developed at Argonne National Laboratory, and introduced to PNC. Improvement and validation effort have been performed for the mixed-oxide version of SAS4A at PNC. This paper describes firstly recent development of SAS4A's material motion related models briefly. A fission gas mass transfer model and solid fuel chunk jamming model are developed and introduced to SAS4A, and validated using CABRI-2 E13 experimental data. Secondly, an investigation of the mechanism of energetics in the initiating phase of an unprotected loss-of-flow accident has identified major control parameters which are intimately related to core design parameters and material motion phenomena. (author)

  12. Self-Consistent Model of Magnetospheric Electric Field, Ring Current, Plasmasphere, and Electromagnetic Ion Cyclotron Waves: Initial Results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gamayunov, K. V.; Khazanov, G. V.; Liemohn, M. W.; Fok, M.-C.; Ridley, A. J.

    2009-01-01

    Further development of our self-consistent model of interacting ring current (RC) ions and electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) waves is presented. This model incorporates large scale magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling and treats self-consistently not only EMIC waves and RC ions, but also the magnetospheric electric field, RC, and plasmasphere. Initial simulations indicate that the region beyond geostationary orbit should be included in the simulation of the magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling. Additionally, a self-consistent description, based on first principles, of the ionospheric conductance is required. These initial simulations further show that in order to model the EMIC wave distribution and wave spectral properties accurately, the plasmasphere should also be simulated self-consistently, since its fine structure requires as much care as that of the RC. Finally, an effect of the finite time needed to reestablish a new potential pattern throughout the ionosphere and to communicate between the ionosphere and the equatorial magnetosphere cannot be ignored.

  13. Robust Initialization of Active Shape Models for Lung Segmentation in CT Scans: A Feature-Based Atlas Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gurman Gill

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Model-based segmentation methods have the advantage of incorporating a priori shape information into the segmentation process but suffer from the drawback that the model must be initialized sufficiently close to the target. We propose a novel approach for initializing an active shape model (ASM and apply it to 3D lung segmentation in CT scans. Our method constructs an atlas consisting of a set of representative lung features and an average lung shape. The ASM pose parameters are found by transforming the average lung shape based on an affine transform computed from matching features between the new image and representative lung features. Our evaluation on a diverse set of 190 images showed an average dice coefficient of 0.746 ± 0.068 for initialization and 0.974 ± 0.017 for subsequent segmentation, based on an independent reference standard. The mean absolute surface distance error was 0.948 ± 1.537 mm. The initialization as well as segmentation results showed a statistically significant improvement compared to four other approaches. The proposed initialization method can be generalized to other applications employing ASM-based segmentation.

  14. Anthropogenic Heat Flux in South African Cities: Initial estimates from the LUCY model

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Padayachi, Yerdashin R

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available include the identification of the main area emission sources of the AHF distinguished by settlement type and the analysis of the mean AHF in the three most populated cities in South Africa. The case studies are used to highlight the need to quantify... be found in Allen et al. 2011. 2.2. Applying the LUCY model to South Africa 2.2.1. Parameterising the LUCY model LUCY was parameterised for South Africa by using country level temperature, population, transport and primary energy consumption data...

  15. The effect of a number of selective points in modeling of polymerization reacting Monte Carlo method: studying the initiation reaction

    CERN Document Server

    Sadi, M; Dabir, B

    2003-01-01

    Monte Carlo Method is one of the most powerful techniques to model different processes, such as polymerization reactions. By this method, without any need to solve moment equations, a very detailed information on the structure and properties of polymers are obtained. The number of algorithm repetitions (selected volumes of reactor for modelling which represent the number of initial molecules) is very important in this method. In Monte Carlo method calculations are based on the random number of generations and reaction probability determinations. so the number of algorithm repetition is very important. In this paper, the initiation reaction was considered alone and the importance of number of initiator molecules on the result were studied. It can be concluded that Monte Carlo method will not give accurate results if the number of molecules is not satisfied to be big enough, because in that case , selected volume would not be representative of the whole system.

  16. Preliminary Results of a U.S. Deep South Warm Season Deep Convective Initiation Modeling Experiment using NASA SPoRT Initialization Datasets for Operational National Weather Service Local Model Runs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medlin, Jeffrey M.; Wood, Lance; Zavodsky, Brad; Case, Jon; Molthan, Andrew

    2012-01-01

    The initiation of deep convection during the warm season is a forecast challenge in the relative high instability and low wind shear environment of the U.S. Deep South. Despite improved knowledge of the character of well known mesoscale features such as local sea-, bay- and land-breezes, observations show the evolution of these features fall well short in fully describing the location of first initiates. A joint collaborative modeling effort among the NWS offices in Mobile, AL, and Houston, TX, and NASA s Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center was undertaken during the 2012 warm season to examine the impact of certain NASA produced products on the Weather Research and Forecasting Environmental Modeling System. The NASA products were: a 4-km Land Information System data, a 1-km sea surface temperature analysis, and a 4-km greenness vegetation fraction analysis. Similar domains were established over the southeast Texas and Alabama coastlines, each with a 9 km outer grid spacing and a 3 km inner nest spacing. The model was run at each NWS office once per day out to 24 hours from 0600 UTC, using the NCEP Global Forecast System for initial and boundary conditions. Control runs without the NASA products were made at the NASA SPoRT Center. The NCAR Model Evaluation Tools verification package was used to evaluate both the forecast timing and location of the first initiates, with a focus on the impacts of the NASA products on the model forecasts. Select case studies will be presented to highlight the influence of the products.

  17. Investigating Students' Perceptions on Laptop Initiative in Higher Education: An Extension of the Technology Acceptance Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elwood, Susan; Changchit, Chuleeporn; Cutshall, Robert

    2006-01-01

    Purpose: This study aims to examine students' perceptions and their acceptance towards implementing a laptop program. Design/methodology/approach: Extensive research has been carried out on the technology acceptance model (TAM) to better understand the behavioral intention of individuals to accept and use technology. Therefore, the TAM was adopted…

  18. Multivariate Dynamic Modeling to Investigate Human Adaptation to Space Flight: Initial Concepts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shelhamer, Mark; Mindock, Jennifer; Zeffiro, Tom; Krakauer, David; Paloski, William H.; Lumpkins, Sarah

    2014-01-01

    The array of physiological changes that occur when humans venture into space for long periods presents a challenge to future exploration. The changes are conventionally investigated independently, but a complete understanding of adaptation requires a conceptual basis founded in integrative physiology, aided by appropriate mathematical modeling. NASA is in the early stages of developing such an approach.

  19. Multivariate Dynamical Modeling to Investigate Human Adaptation to Space Flight: Initial Concepts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shelhamer, Mark; Mindock, Jennifer; Zeffiro, Tom; Krakauer, David; Paloski, William H.; Lumpkins, Sarah

    2014-01-01

    The array of physiological changes that occur when humans venture into space for long periods presents a challenge to future exploration. The changes are conventionally investigated independently, but a complete understanding of adaptation requires a conceptual basis founded in intergrative physiology, aided by appropriate mathematical modeling. NASA is in the early stages of developing such an approach.

  20. 25 Years of DECOVALEX - Research Advances and Lessons Learned from an International Model Comparison Initiative

    Science.gov (United States)

    Birkholzer, J. T.

    2017-12-01

    This presentation provides an overview of an international research and model comparison collaboration (DECOVALEX) for advancing the understanding and modeling of coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical-chemical (THMC) processes in geological systems. Prediction of these coupled effects is an essential part of the performance and safety assessment of geologic disposal systems for radioactive waste and spent nuclear fuel, and is also relevant for a range of other sub-surface engineering activities. DECOVALEX research activities have been supported by a large number of radioactive-waste-management organizations and regulatory authorities. Research teams from more than a dozen international partner organizations have participated in the comparative modeling evaluation of complex field and laboratory experiments in the UK, Switzerland, Japan, France and Sweden. Together, these tasks (1) have addressed a wide range of relevant issues related to engineered and natural system behavior in argillaceous, crystalline and other host rocks, (2) have yielded in-depth knowledge of coupled THM and THMC processes associated with nuclear waste repositories and wider geo-engineering applications, and (3) have advanced the capability, as well as demonstrated the suitability, of numerical simulation models for quantitative analysis.

  1. 3D Modeling and Printing in History/Social Studies Classrooms: Initial Lessons and Insights

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maloy, Robert; Trust, Torrey; Kommers, Suzan; Malinowski, Allison; LaRoche, Irene

    2017-01-01

    This exploratory study examines the use of 3D technology by teachers and students in four middle school history/social studies classrooms. As part of a university-developed 3D Printing 4 Teaching & Learning project, teachers integrated 3D modeling and printing into curriculum topics in world geography, U.S. history, and government/civics.…

  2. Mexico City air quality research initiative, volume 3, modeling and simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mauzy, A. [ed.] [Los Alamos National Lab., NM (United States)

    1994-06-01

    The objective of the modeling and simulation task was to develop, test, and apply an appropriate set of models that could translate emission changes into air quality changes. Specifically, we wanted to develop models that could describe how existing measurements of ozone (O{sub 3}), carbon monoxide (CO), and sulfur dioxide (SO{sub 2}) would be expected to change if their emissions were changed. The modeling must be able to address the effects of difference in weather conditions and changes in land use as well as the effects of changes in emission levels. It must also be able to address the effects of changes in the nature and distribution of the emissions as well as changes in the total emissions. A second objective was to provide an understanding of the conditions that lead to poor air quality in Mexico City. We know in a general sense that Mexico City`s poor air quality is the result of large quantities of emissions in a confined area that is subject to light winds, but we did not know much about many aspects of the problem. For example, is the air quality on a given day primarily the result of emissions on that day...or is there an important carryover from previous nights and days? With a good understanding of the important meteorological circumstances that lead to poor air quality, we learn what it take duce an accurate forecast of impending quality so that we can determine the advisability of emergency measures.

  3. Revision of Fontes & Garnier's model for the initial 14C content of dissolved inorganic carbon used in groundwater dating

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Liang-Feng; Plummer, Niel

    2013-01-01

    The widely applied model for groundwater dating using 14C proposed by Fontes and Garnier (F&G) (Fontes and Garnier, 1979) estimates the initial 14C content in waters from carbonate-rock aquifers affected by isotopic exchange. Usually, the model of F&G is applied in one of two ways: (1) using a single 13C fractionation factor of gaseous CO2 with respect to a solid carbonate mineral, εg/s, regardless of whether the carbon isotopic exchange is controlled by soil CO2 in the unsaturated zone, or by solid carbonate mineral in the saturated zone; or (2) using different fractionation factors if the exchange process is dominated by soil CO2 gas as opposed to solid carbonate mineral (typically calcite). An analysis of the F&G model shows an inadequate conceptualization, resulting in underestimation of the initial 14C values (14C0) for groundwater systems that have undergone isotopic exchange. The degree to which the 14C0 is underestimated increases with the extent of isotopic exchange. Examples show that in extreme cases, the error in calculated adjusted initial 14C values can be more than 20% modern carbon (pmc). A model is derived that revises the mass balance method of F&G by using a modified model conceptualization. The derivation yields a “global” model both for carbon isotopic exchange dominated by gaseous CO2 in the unsaturated zone, and for carbon isotopic exchange dominated by solid carbonate mineral in the saturated zone. However, the revised model requires different parameters for exchange dominated by gaseous CO2 as opposed to exchange dominated by solid carbonate minerals. The revised model for exchange dominated by gaseous CO2 is shown to be identical to the model of Mook (Mook, 1976). For groundwater systems where exchange occurs both in the unsaturated zone and saturated zone, the revised model can still be used; however, 14C0 will be slightly underestimated. Finally, in carbonate systems undergoing complex geochemical reactions, such as oxidation of

  4. Application of the GRAAL model to leaching experiments with SON68 nuclear glass in initially pure water

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frugier, P.; Chave, T.; Gin, S.; Lartigue, J.-E.

    2009-01-01

    Based on a review of the current state of knowledge concerning the aqueous alteration of SON68 nuclear glass we have proposed a mechanistic model, GRAAL (Glass Reactivity with Allowance for the Alteration Layer) [P. Frugier, S. Gin, Y. Minet, T. Chave, B. Bonin, N. Godon, J.E. Lartigue, P. Jollivet, A. Ayral, L. De Windt, G. Santarini, J. Nucl. Mater. 380 (2008) 8]. This article describes how the GRAAL model hypotheses are solved using a calculation code coupling chemistry and transport. The geochemical solution of this model combines three major phenomena: chemical equilibria in solution, water and ion transport by convection or diffusion, and element diffusion through the passivating reactive interphase. The model results are compared with experimental data for SON68 glass leached in initially pure water both in a closed system and in renewed media. The comparison shows the model very satisfactorily accounts for variations in the pH and the element concentrations in solution as a function of time, the glass surface area in contact with solution, and the solution renewal rate. This success is due to the fact that the diffusion of elements through the alteration gel is taken into account in the model. This mechanism cannot be disregarded under most experimental conditions - if only to predict the solution pH - and must therefore be an integral part of the geochemical model.

  5. Description and initial evaluation of an educational and psychosocial support model for adults with congenitally malformed hearts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rönning, Helén; Nielsen, Niels Erik; Swahn, Eva; Strömberg, Anna

    2011-05-01

    Various programmes for adults with congenitally malformed hearts have been developed, but detailed descriptions of content, rationale and goals are often missing. The aim of this study was to describe and make an initial evaluation of a follow-up model for adults with congenitally malformed hearts, focusing on education and psychosocial support by a multidisciplinary team (EPS). The model is described in steps and evaluated with regards to perceptions of knowledge, anxiety and satisfaction. The EPS model included a policlinic visit to the physician/nurse (medical consultation, computer-based and individual education face-to-face as well as psychosocial support) and a 1-month telephone follow-up. Fifty-five adults (mean age 34, 29 women) with the nine most common forms of congenitally malformed hearts participated in the EPS model as well as the 3-months follow-up. Knowledge about congenital heart malformation had increased in 40% of the participants at the 3-months follow-up. This study describes and evaluates a model that combines a multidisciplinary approach and computer-based education for follow-up of adults with congenitally malformed hearts. The EPS model was found to increase self-estimated knowledge, but further evaluations need to be conducted to prove patient-centred outcomes over time. The model is now ready to be implemented in adults with congenitally malformed hearts. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Atmospheric methane and carbon dioxide from SCIAMACHY satellite data: initial comparison with chemistry and transport models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Buchwitz

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available The remote sensing of the atmospheric greenhouse gases methane (CH4 and carbon dioxide (CO2 in the troposphere from instrumentation aboard satellites is a new area of research. In this manuscript, results obtained from observations of the up-welling radiation in the near-infrared by SCIAMACHY on board ENVISAT are presented. Vertical columns of CH4, CO2 and oxygen (O2 have been retrieved and the (air or O2-normalised CH4 and CO2 column amounts, the dry air column averaged mixing ratios XCH4 and XCO2 derived. In this manuscript the first results, obtained by using the version 0.4 of the Weighting Function Modified (WFM DOAS retrieval algorithm applied to SCIAMACHY data, are described and compared with global models. For the set of individual cloud free measurements over land the standard deviation of the difference with respect to the models is in the range ~100–200 ppbv (5–10% for XCH4 and ~14–32 ppmv (4–9% for XCO2. The inter-hemispheric difference of the methane mixing ratio, as determined from single day data, is in the range 30–110 ppbv and in reasonable agreement with the corresponding model data (48–71 ppbv. The weak inter-hemispheric difference of the CO2 mixing ratio can also be detected with single day data. The spatiotemporal pattern of the measured and the modelled XCO2 are in reasonable agreement. However, the amplitude of the difference between the maximum and the minimum for SCIAMACHY XCO2 is about ±20 ppmv which is about a factor of four larger than the variability of the model data which is about ±5 ppmv. More studies are needed to explain the observed differences. The XCO2 model field shows low CO2 concentrations beginning of January 2003 over a spatially extended CO2 sink region located in southern tropical/sub-tropical Africa. The SCIAMACHY data also show low CO2 mixing ratios over this area. According to the model the sink region becomes a source region about six months later and exhibits higher mixing ratios

  7. Reactive flow modeling of initial density effect on divergence JB-9014 detonation driving

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yu, Xin, E-mail: yummuy@iapcm.ac.cn; Huang, Kuibang; Zheng, Miao [Institute of Applied Physics and Computational Mathematics, Beijing, P.R. China, 100094 (China)

    2016-06-08

    A serious of experiments were designed and the results were represented in this paper, in which 2 mm thickness cooper shells were impacted by explosives named JB-9014 with different densities, and the surface velocities of the OFHC shells were measured. The comparison of experimental data shows the free surface velocity of the OFHC shell increase with the IHE density. Numerical modeling, which occupied phenomenological reactive flow rate model using the two-dimensional Lagrange hydrodynamic code, were carried out to simulate the above experiments, and empirical adjustments on detonation velocity and pressure and Pier Tang’s adjustments on EOS of detonation products were both introduced in our numerical simulation work. The computational results agree well with that of experiments, and the numerical results with original parameters of products and the adjusted ones of JB-9014 could describe the density effect distinctly.

  8. Modelling and Initial Validation of the DYMO Routing Protocol for Mobile Ad-Hoc Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Espensen, Kristian Asbjørn Leth; Kjeldsen, Mads Keblov; Kristensen, Lars Michael

    2008-01-01

    A mobile ad-hoc network (MANET) is an infrastructureless network established by a set of mobile devices using wireless communication. The Dynamic MANET On-demand (DYMO) protocol is a routing protocol for multi-hop communication in MANETs currently under development by the Internet Engineering Task...... Force (IETF). This paper presents a Coloured Petri Net (CPN) model of the mandatory parts of the DYMO protocol, and shows how scenario-based state space exploration has been used to validate key properties of the protocol. Our CPN modelling and verification work has spanned two revisions of the DYMO...... protocol specification and have had direct impact on the most recent version of the protocol specification....

  9. Economic consequences of the Swiss 'Strom ohne Atom' and 'Moratorium Plus' popular initiatives - Analysis using a balanced model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mueller, A.; Wickart, M.; Van Nieuwkoop, R.

    2001-01-01

    This article is a short version of the ENET number 210359. This report for the Swiss Federal Office of Energy (SFOE) presents the results of a study made to assess the economic consequences of two models for the opting out of nuclear energy in Switzerland, as proposed in two popular initiatives. The 'Strom ohne Atom' (electricity without atomic power) initiative calls for the shutting down of the existing nuclear power stations and the 'Moratorium Plus' initiative calls for a stop on the building of new atomic power stations for 10 years. The method used for assessing the costs and benefits resulting if the initiatives were accepted in a public vote is described. Basic assumptions made on further factors concerning the electricity and energy markets are discussed. Results of analyses made for various scenarios with respect to CO 2 emissions are presented and include discussions on risk costs, effects on employment and welfare aspects

  10. Economic consequences of the Swiss 'Sortir du nucleaire' and 'Moratoire-plus' popular initiatives - Analysis using a balanced model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mueller, A.; Wickart, M.; Van Nieuwkoop, R.

    2001-01-01

    This article is a short version of the ENET number 210359. This report for the Swiss Federal Office of Energy (SFOE) presents the results of a study made to assess the economic consequences of two models for the opting out of nuclear energy in Switzerland, as proposed in two popular initiatives. The 'Sortir du nucleaire' (electricity without atomic power) initiative calls for the shutting down of the existing nuclear power stations and the 'Moratoire-plus' initiative calls for a stop on the building of new atomic power stations for 10 years. The method used for assessing the costs and benefits resulting if the initiatives were accepted in a public vote is described. Basic assumptions made on further factors concerning the electricity and energy markets are discussed. Results of analyses made for various scenarios with respect to CO 2 emissions are presented and include discussions on risk costs, effects on employment and welfare aspects

  11. The Baltimore Youth Ammunition Initiative: A Model Application of Local Public Health Authority in Preventing Gun Violence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewin, Nancy L.; Vernick, Jon S.; Beilenson, Peter L.; Mair, Julie S.; Lindamood, Melisa M.; Teret, Stephen P.; Webster, Daniel W.

    2005-01-01

    In 2002, the Baltimore City Health Department, in collaboration with the Baltimore Police Department and the Johns Hopkins Center for Gun Policy and Research, launched the Youth Ammunition Initiative. The initiative addressed Baltimore’s problem of youth gun violence by targeting illegal firearm ammunition sales to the city’s young people. The initiative included undercover “sting” investigations of local businesses and issuance of health department violation and abatement notices. Intermediate results included the passage of 2 Baltimore city council ordinances regulating ammunition sales and reducing the number of outlets eligible to sell ammunition. Although it is too early to assess effects on violent crime, the intervention could theoretically reduce youth violence by interrupting one source of ammunition to youths. More important, the initiative can serve as a policy model for health commissioners seeking to become more active in gun violence prevention efforts. PMID:15855448

  12. Initial evaluation of nighttime restlessness in a naturally occurring canine model of osteoarthritis pain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Knazovicky

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Chronic pain due to osteoarthritis (OA can lead to significant disruption of sleep and increased restlessness. Our objective was to assess whether naturally occurring canine OA is associated with nighttime restlessness and so has potential as a model of OA-associated sleep disturbance. The study was designed as a two-part prospective masked, placebo-controlled study using client-owned dogs (Part A n = 60; Part B n = 19. Inclusion criteria consisted of OA-associated joint pain and mobility impairment. The primary outcome measure for both parts was nighttime accelerometry. In Part B, quality of sleep was assessed using a clinical metrology instrument (Sleep and Night Time Restlessness Evaluation Score, SNoRE. Part A included dogs receiving two weeks of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug (NSAID preceded with two weeks of no treatment. Part B was a crossover study, with NSAID/placebo administered for two weeks followed by a washout period of one week and another two weeks of NSAID/placebo. Repeated measures analysis of variance was used to assess differences between baseline and treatment. There were no significant changes in accelerometry-measured nighttime activity as a result of NSAID administration. SNoRE measures indicated significant improvements in aspects of the quality of nighttime sleep that did not involve obvious movement. These results reflect the few similar studies in human OA patients. Although accelerometry does not appear to be useful, this model has potential to model the human pain-related nighttime sleep disturbance, and other outcome measures should be explored in this model.

  13. Diagram, a Learning Environment for Initiation to Object-Oriented Modeling with UML Class Diagrams

    OpenAIRE

    Py, Dominique; Auxepaules, Ludovic; Alonso, Mathilde

    2013-01-01

    International audience; Learning environments for object-oriented modelling in UML which offer a rich interaction usually impose, in return, strong restrictions on the range of exercises they can address. We propose to overcome this limit by including a diagnostic module that compares the student diagram with a reference diagram. This approach enables to combine the advantages of an open environment (in which the teacher can add new exercises without constraints on the vocabulary or the size ...

  14. A Chimpanzee (Pan troglodytes) Model of Triarchic Psychopathy Constructs: Development and Initial Validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Latzman, Robert D.; Drislane, Laura E.; Hecht, Lisa K.; Brislin, Sarah J.; Patrick, Christopher J.; Lilienfeld, Scott O.; Freeman, Hani J.; Schapiro, Steven J.; Hopkins, William D.

    2015-01-01

    The current work sought to operationalize constructs of the triarchic model of psychopathy in chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes), a species well-suited for investigations of basic biobehavioral dispositions relevant to psychopathology. Across three studies, we generated validity evidence for scale measures of the triarchic model constructs in a large sample (N=238) of socially-housed chimpanzees. Using a consensus-based rating approach, we first identified candidate items for the chimpanzee triarchic (CHMP-Tri) scales from an existing primate personality instrument and refined these into scales. In Study 2, we collected data for these scales from human informants (N=301), and examined their convergent and divergent relations with scales from another triarchic inventory developed for human use. In Study 3, we undertook validation work examining associations between CHMP-Tri scales and task measures of approach-avoidance behavior (N=73) and ability to delay gratification (N=55). Current findings provide support for a chimpanzee model of core dispositions relevant to psychopathy and other forms of psychopathology. PMID:26779396

  15. Starburst modeling of M82 - Test case for a biased initial mass function

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rieke, G. H.; Loken, K.; Rieke, M. J.; Tamblyn, P.

    1993-01-01

    We compute starburst models for M82, making use of recent theoretical tracks of stellar evolution. Detailed comparisons of our models and those of others demonstrate this technique to be quite reliable, with relatively little change in output parameters as a function of the selection of theoretical tracks or of estimates of the observational characteristics of the stars along these tracks. The models are matched to the observational constraints for M82 summarized by McLeod et al. (1993). The rate of star formation and time of observation were thoroughly optimized to produce the most favorable fit to the observations, but we still found that the recently proposed forms for the solar-neighborhood IMF cannot produce starbursts adequate to fit the observations of this galaxy. We then explored adjustments to the shape of the IMF to improve the fit to M82. We find (1) the shape of the IMF for high-mass stars need not be different from that observed locally; and (2) the most likely modification to the IMF in M82 is that stars with masses below a few solar masses form much less commonly than in the solar neighborhood.

  16. Modelling initial mortality of Abies religiosa in a crown fire in Mexico

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Salomé Temiño-Villota

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Aim of study: The objectives of this work were to determine which morphological and fire severity variables may help explain the mortality of adult Abies religiosa (Kunth Schltdl. & Cham., to model the probability of this species after being affected by crown fire, and to obtain more elements to classify the sacred fir in terms of fire resistance. This type of studies are relevant to estimate the impact of crown fires on the climax forests that forms this species.Area of study: The burned forest was located in the southern Mexico City, borough.Material and methods: Morphological variables and fire severity indicators were collected for 335 Abies religiosa trees burned by a mixed severity fire. Logistic regression was used to analyze data and develop models that best explained tree mortality.Main results: Survival was 26.9%. The models for height (p≤0.0001, diameter at breast height (p=0.0082, crown length (p≤0.0001 and crown base height (p≤0.0001 were significant, with a negative relationship between each one of these variables and probability of mortality. The significant severity variables were lethal scorch height (p≤0.0001 and crown kill (p≤ 0.0001, which have a direct relationship with probability of mortality.Highlights: This species is moderately fire-resistant. Crown kill ≥ 70% markedly increases mortality. Silvicultural activities such as pruning, thinning and fuel management can reduce the risk of crown fires.

  17. Modelling initial mortality of Abies religiosa in a crown fire in Mexico

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Temiño-Villota, S.; Rodríguez-Trejo, D.A.; Molina Terrén, D.M.; Ryan, K.

    2016-07-01

    Aim of the study: The objectives of this work were to determine which morphological and fire severity variables may help explain the mortality of adult Abies religiosa (Kunth) Schltdl. & Cham., to model the probability of this species after being affected by crown fire, and to obtain more elements to classify the sacred fir in terms of fire resistance. This type of studies are relevant to estimate the impact of crown fires on the climax forests that forms this species. Area of study: The burned forest was located in the southern Mexico City, borough. Material and methods: Morphological variables and fire severity indicators were collected for 335 Abies religiosa trees burned by a mixed severity fire. Logistic regression was used to analyze data and develop models that best explained tree mortality. Main results: Survival was 26.9%. The models for height (p≤0.0001), diameter at breast height (p=0.0082), crown length (p≤0.0001) and crown base height (p≤0.0001) were significant, with a negative relationship between each one of these variables and probability of mortality. The significant severity variables were lethal scorch height (p≤0.0001) and crown kill (p≤ 0.0001), which have a direct relationship with probability of mortality. Highlights: This species is moderately fire-resistant. Crown kill ≥ 70% markedly increases mortality. Silvicultural activities such as pruning, thinning and fuel management can reduce the risk of crown fires. (Author)

  18. Calibration of Eringen's small length scale coefficient for initially stressed vibrating nonlocal Euler beams based on microstructured beam model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, C M; Zhang, Z; Challamel, N; Duan, W H

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, we calibrate Eringen's small length scale coefficient e 0 for an initially stressed vibrating nonlocal Euler beam via a microstructured beam modelled by some repetitive cells comprising finite rigid segments and elastic rotational springs. By adopting the pseudo-differential operator and Padé's approximation, an analytical solution for the vibration frequency in terms of initial stress may be developed for the microstructured beam model. When comparing this analytical solution with the established exact vibration solution from the nonlocal beam theory, one finds that the calibrated Eringen's small length scale coefficient e 0 is given by e 0 = √(1/6)-(1/12)(σ 0 /σ-breve m ) where σ 0 is the initial stress and σ-breve m is the mth mode buckling stress of the corresponding local Euler beam. It is shown that e 0 varies with respect to the initial axial stress, from 1/√(12)∼0.289 at the buckling compressive stress to 1/√6∼0.408 when the axial stress is zero and it monotonically increases with increasing initial tensile stress. The small length scale coefficient e 0 , however, does not depend on the vibration/buckling mode considered. (paper)

  19. Model for fracture mechanics based prediction of the fatigue strength of engineering alloys containing microscopical initial defects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zerbst Uwe

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Recently two of the authors of the present paper proposed a model for fracture mechanics based prediction of the S-N characteristics of metallic components with large microstructural defects and supported this by a validation excercise on an aluminium alloy AL5380 H321. Within this presentation the authors extend the study using a number of data sets from the literature. Despite of necessary assumptions for the compensation of partially missing input information the results are fairly reasonable, with the exception of high loading levels where the analyses of two of the data sets yield non-conservative results. The authors propose multiple crack initiation as the potential root of the problem and discuss methods for extending the model for taking into account crack initiation.

  20. An Ontology of Quality Initiatives and a Model for Decentralized, Collaborative Quality Management on the (Semantic) World Wide Web

    Science.gov (United States)

    2001-01-01

    This editorial provides a model of how quality initiatives concerned with health information on the World Wide Web may in the future interact with each other. This vision fits into the evolving "Semantic Web" architecture - ie, the prospective that the World Wide Web may evolve from a mess of unstructured, human-readable information sources into a global knowledge base with an additional layer providing richer and more meaningful relationships between resources. One first prerequisite for forming such a "Semantic Web" or "web of trust" among the players active in quality management of health information is that these initiatives make statements about themselves and about each other in a machine-processable language. I present a concrete model on how this collaboration could look, and provide some recommendations on what the role of the World Health Organization (WHO) and other policy makers in this framework could be. PMID:11772549

  1. Angular sensitivity of modeled scientific silicon charge-coupled devices to initial electron direction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Plimley, Brian, E-mail: brian.plimley@gmail.com [Nuclear Engineering Department, University of California, Berkeley, CA (United States); Coffer, Amy; Zhang, Yigong [Nuclear Engineering Department, University of California, Berkeley, CA (United States); Vetter, Kai [Nuclear Engineering Department, University of California, Berkeley, CA (United States); Nuclear Science Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2016-08-11

    Previously, scientific silicon charge-coupled devices (CCDs) with 10.5-μm pixel pitch and a thick (650 μm), fully depleted bulk have been used to measure gamma-ray-induced fast electrons and demonstrate electron track Compton imaging. A model of the response of this CCD was also developed and benchmarked to experiment using Monte Carlo electron tracks. We now examine the trade-off in pixel pitch and electronic noise. We extend our CCD response model to different pixel pitch and readout noise per pixel, including pixel pitch of 2.5 μm, 5 μm, 10.5 μm, 20 μm, and 40 μm, and readout noise from 0 eV/pixel to 2 keV/pixel for 10.5 μm pixel pitch. The CCD images generated by this model using simulated electron tracks are processed by our trajectory reconstruction algorithm. The performance of the reconstruction algorithm defines the expected angular sensitivity as a function of electron energy, CCD pixel pitch, and readout noise per pixel. Results show that our existing pixel pitch of 10.5 μm is near optimal for our approach, because smaller pixels add little new information but are subject to greater statistical noise. In addition, we measured the readout noise per pixel for two different device temperatures in order to estimate the effect of temperature on the reconstruction algorithm performance, although the readout is not optimized for higher temperatures. The noise in our device at 240 K increases the FWHM of angular measurement error by no more than a factor of 2, from 26° to 49° FWHM for electrons between 425 keV and 480 keV. Therefore, a CCD could be used for electron-track-based imaging in a Peltier-cooled device.

  2. The OH-initiated oxidation of atmospheric peroxyacetic acid: Experimental and model studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Huihui; Wang, Yin; Li, Huan; Huang, Liubin; Huang, Dao; Shen, Hengqing; Xing, Yanan; Chen, Zhongming

    2017-09-01

    Peroxyacetic acid (PAA, CH3C(O)OOH) plays an important role in atmospheric chemistry, serving as reactive oxidant and affecting radical recycling. However, previous studies revealed an obvious gap between modelled and observed concentrations of atmospheric PAA, which may be partly ascribed to the uncertainty in the kinetics and mechanism of OH-oxidation. In this study, we measured the rate constant of OH radical reaction with PAA (kPAA+OH) and investigated the products in order to develop a more robust atmospheric PAA chemistry. Using the relative rates technique and employing toluene and meta-xylene as reference compounds, the kPAA+OH was determined to be (9.4-11.9) × 10-12 cm3 molecule-1 s-1 at 298 K and 1 atm, which is about (2.5-3.2) times larger than that parameter used in Master Chemical Mechanism v3.3.1 (MCM v3.3.1) (3.70 × 10-12 cm3 molecule-1 s-1). Incorporation of a box model and MCM v3.3.1 with revised PAA chemistry represented a better simulation of atmospheric PAA observed during Wangdu Campaign 2014, a rural site in North China Plain. It is found that OH-oxidation is an important sink of atmospheric PAA in this rural area, accounting for ∼30% of the total loss. Moreover, the major terminal products of PAA-OH reaction were identified as formaldehyde (HCHO) and formic acid (HC(O)OH). The modelled results show that both primary and secondary chemistry play an important role in the large HCHO and HC(O)OH formation under experimental conditions. There should exist the channel of methyl H-abstraction for PAA-OH reaction, which may also provide routes to HCHO and HC(O)OH formation.

  3. Modeling of asphalt by means of discrete element method – an initial study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Feng, Huan; Hededal, Ole; Stang, Henrik

    type of numerical simulation method which allows the finite displacement and rotation of discrete particles, making it an excellent tool to simulate the complex micro interaction between aggregate particles within an asphalt mixture, [3],[4] . In this research, PFC3D – a commercial DEM program...... of conducting time-consuming and lab-costly procedures. The use of numerical models, capable of reducing greatly the testing cost, has shown great potential in characterizing asphalt-aggregate mixtures for both material evaluation and structural design purposes, [1],[2]. Discrete element method (DEM) is one...

  4. Modelling initial mortality of Abies religiosa in a crown fire in Mexico

    OpenAIRE

    Temiño Villota, Salomé; Rodríguez Trejo, Dante A.; Molina Terrén, Domingo; Ryan, Kevin C.

    2016-01-01

    Aim of study: The objectives of this work were to determine which morphological and fire severity variables may help explain the mortality of adult Abies religiosa (Kunth) Schltdl. & Cham., to model the probability of this species after being affected by crown fire, and to obtain more elements to classify the sacred fir in terms of fire resistance. This type of studies are relevant to estimate the impact of crown fires on the climax forests that forms this species.Area of study: The burne...

  5. Comparing lesbian and heterosexual couples on the circumplex model: an initial investigation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zacks, E; Green, R J; Marrow, J

    1988-12-01

    This study extends the research on the Circumplex Model to a population of lesbian couples. Instruments consisted of a demographic questionnaire, FACES III, and the Family Satisfaction Scale. Lesbian couples reported significantly higher levels of cohesion, adaptability, and satisfaction than did heterosexual couples. Exceptionally high levels of cohesion and adaptability may help lesbian couples function more successfully in a predominantly heterosexual world. Further, women's socialization may predispose female couples to form more cohesive and adaptable relationships than heterosexual couples. This article also emphasizes the cultural relativity of family norms for studies of lesbian and all minority population couples.

  6. Initial Comparison of Direct and Legacy Modeling Approaches for Radial Core Expansion Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shemon, Emily R. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)

    2016-10-10

    Radial core expansion in sodium-cooled fast reactors provides an important reactivity feedback effect. As the reactor power increases due to normal start up conditions or accident scenarios, the core and surrounding materials heat up, causing both grid plate expansion and bowing of the assembly ducts. When the core restraint system is designed correctly, the resulting structural deformations introduce negative reactivity which decreases the reactor power. Historically, an indirect procedure has been used to estimate the reactivity feedback due to structural deformation which relies upon perturbation theory and coupling legacy physics codes with limited geometry capabilities. With advancements in modeling and simulation, radial core expansion phenomena can now be modeled directly, providing an assessment of the accuracy of the reactivity feedback coefficients generated by indirect legacy methods. Recently a new capability was added to the PROTEUS-SN unstructured geometry neutron transport solver to analyze deformed meshes quickly and directly. By supplying the deformed mesh in addition to the base configuration input files, PROTEUS-SN automatically processes material adjustments including calculation of region densities to conserve mass, calculation of isotopic densities according to material models (for example, sodium density as a function of temperature), and subsequent re-homogenization of materials. To verify the new capability of directly simulating deformed meshes, PROTEUS-SN was used to compute reactivity feedback for a series of contrived yet representative deformed configurations for the Advanced Burner Test Reactor design. The indirect legacy procedure was also performed to generate reactivity feedback coefficients for the same deformed configurations. Interestingly, the legacy procedure consistently overestimated reactivity feedbacks by 35% compared to direct simulations by PROTEUS-SN. This overestimation indicates that the legacy procedures are in fact

  7. A Social Audit Model for Agro-biotechnology Initiatives in Developing Countries: Accounting for Ethical, Social, Cultural, and Commercialization Issues

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Obidimma Ezezika

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available There is skepticism and resistance to innovations associated with agro-biotechnology projects, leading to the possibility of failure. The source of the skepticism is complex, but partly traceable to how local communities view genetically engineered crops, public perception on the technology’s implications, and views on the role of the private sector in public health and agriculture, especially in the developing world. We posit that a governance and management model in which ethical, social, cultural, and commercialization issues are accounted for and addressed is important in mitigating risk of project failure and improving the appropriate adoption of agro-biotechnology in sub-Saharan Africa. We introduce a social audit model, which we term Ethical, Social, Cultural and Commercialization (ESC2 auditing and which we developed based on feedback from a number of stakeholders. We lay the foundation for its importance in agro-biotechnology development projects and show how the model can be applied to projects run by Public Private Partnerships. We argue that the implementation of the audit model can help to build public trust through facilitating project accountability and transparency. The model also provides evidence on how ESC2 issues are perceived by various stakeholders, which enables project managers to effectively monitor and improve project performance. Although this model was specifically designed for agro-biotechnology initiatives, we show how it can also be applied to other development projects.

  8. Using multi-theory model to predict initiation and sustenance of small portion size consumption among college students

    OpenAIRE

    Manoj Sharma; Hannah Priest Catalano; Vinayak K. Nahar; Vimala Lingam; Paul Johnson; M. Allison Ford

    2016-01-01

    Background: Consumption of large portion sizes is contributing to overweight and obesity.College students are a vulnerable group in this regard. The purpose of this study was to use multi-theory model (MTM) to predict initiation and sustenance of small portion size consumption in college students. Methods: A total of 135 students at a large Southern US University completed a 35-item valid (face, content, and construct) and reliable (internally consistent) survey electronically in a cross-sect...

  9. Assessment of crown fire initiation and spread models in Mediterranean conifer forests by using data from field and laboratory experiments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rodríguez y Silva, F.; Guijarro, M.; Madrigal, J.; Jiménez, E.; Molina, J.R.; Hernando, C.; Vélez, R.; Vega, J.A.

    2017-11-01

    Aims of study: To conduct the first full-scale crown fire experiment carried out in a Mediterranean conifer stand in Spain; to use different data sources to assess crown fire initiation and spread models, and to evaluate the role of convection in crown fire initiation. Area of study: The Sierra Morena mountains (Coordinates ETRS89 30N: X: 284793-285038; Y: 4218650-4218766), southern Spain, and the outdoor facilities of the Lourizán Forest Research Centre, northwestern Spain. Material and methods: The full-scale crown fire experiment was conducted in a young Pinus pinea stand. Field data were compared with data predicted using the most used crown fire spread models. A small-scale experiment was developed with Pinus pinaster trees to evaluate the role of convection in crown fire initiation. Mass loss calorimeter tests were conducted with P. pinea needles to estimate residence time of the flame, which was used to validate the crown fire spread model. Main results: The commonly used crown fire models underestimated the crown fire spread rate observed in the full-scale experiment, but the proposed new integrated approach yielded better fits. Without wind-forced convection, tree crowns did not ignite until flames from an intense surface fire contacted tree foliage. Bench-scale tests based on radiation heat flux therefore offer a limited insight to full-scale phenomena. Research highlights: Existing crown fire behaviour models may underestimate the rate of spread of crown fires in many Mediterranean ecosystems. New bench-scale methods based on flame buoyancy and more crown field experiments allowing detailed measurements of fire behaviour are needed.

  10. Initiation of a Marinoan Snowball Earth in a state-of-the-art atmosphere-ocean general circulation model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Voigt

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available We study the initiation of a Marinoan Snowball Earth (~635 million years before present with the state-of-the-art atmosphere-ocean general circulation model ECHAM5/MPI-OM. This is the most sophisticated model ever applied to Snowball initiation. A comparison with a pre-industrial control climate shows that the change of surface boundary conditions from present-day to Marinoan, including a shift of continents to low latitudes, induces a global-mean cooling of 4.6 K. Two thirds of this cooling can be attributed to increased planetary albedo, the remaining one third to a weaker greenhouse effect. The Marinoan Snowball Earth bifurcation point for pre-industrial atmospheric carbon dioxide is between 95.5 and 96% of the present-day total solar irradiance (TSI, whereas a previous study with the same model found that it was between 91 and 94% for present-day surface boundary conditions. A Snowball Earth for TSI set to its Marinoan value (94% of the present-day TSI is prevented by doubling carbon dioxide with respect to its pre-industrial level. A zero-dimensional energy balance model is used to predict the Snowball Earth bifurcation point from only the equilibrium global-mean ocean potential temperature for present-day TSI. We do not find stable states with sea-ice cover above 55%, and land conditions are such that glaciers could not grow with sea-ice cover of 55%. Therefore, none of our simulations qualifies as a "slushball" solution. While uncertainties in important processes and parameters such as clouds and sea-ice albedo suggest that the Snowball Earth bifurcation point differs between climate models, our results contradict previous findings that Snowball Earth initiation would require much stronger forcings.

  11. Including policy and management in socio-hydrology models: initial conceptualizations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hermans, Leon; Korbee, Dorien

    2017-04-01

    Socio-hydrology studies the interactions in coupled human-water systems. So far, the use of dynamic models that capture the direct feedback between societal and hydrological systems has been dominant. What has not yet been included with any particular emphasis, is the policy or management layer, which is a central element in for instance integrated water resources management (IWRM) or adaptive delta management (ADM). Studying the direct interactions between human-water systems generates knowledges that eventually helps influence these interactions in ways that may ensure better outcomes - for society and for the health and sustainability of water systems. This influence sometimes occurs through spontaneous emergence, uncoordinated by societal agents - private sector, citizens, consumers, water users. However, the term 'management' in IWRM and ADM also implies an additional coordinated attempt through various public actors. This contribution is a call to include the policy and management dimension more prominently into the research focus of the socio-hydrology field, and offers first conceptual variables that should be considered in attempts to include this policy or management layer in socio-hydrology models. This is done by drawing on existing frameworks to study policy processes throughout both planning and implementation phases. These include frameworks such as the advocacy coalition framework, collective learning and policy arrangements, which all emphasis longer-term dynamics and feedbacks between actor coalitions in strategic planning and implementation processes. A case about longter-term dynamics in the management of the Haringvliet in the Netherlands is used to illustrate the paper.

  12. Overcoming challenges to initiating cell therapy clinical trials in rapidly developing countries: India as a model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viswanathan, Sowmya; Rao, Mahendra; Keating, Armand; Srivastava, Alok

    2013-08-01

    Increasingly, a number of rapidly developing countries, including India, China, Brazil, and others, are becoming global hot spots for the development of regenerative medicine applications, including stem cell-based therapies. Identifying and overcoming regulatory and translational research challenges and promoting scientific and ethical clinical trials with cells will help curb the growth of stem cell tourism for unproven therapies. It will also enable academic investigators, local regulators, and national and international biotechnology and biopharmaceutical companies to accelerate stem cell-based clinical research that could lead to effective innovative treatments in these regions. Using India as a model system and obtaining input from regulators, clinicians, academics, and industry representatives across the stem cell field in India, we reviewed the role of key agencies and processes involved in this field. We have identified areas that need attention and here provide solutions from other established and functioning models in the world to streamline and unify the regulatory and ethics approval processes for cell-based therapies. We also make recommendations to check the growth and functioning of clinics offering unproven treatments. Addressing these issues will remove considerable hurdles to both local and international investigators, accelerate the pace of research and development, and create a quality environment for reliable products to emerge. By doing so, these countries would have taken one important step to move to the forefront of stem cell-based therapeutics.

  13. Interaction of NO2 with model NSR catalysts: metal-oxide interaction controls initial NOx storage mechanism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Desikusumastuti, Aine; Staudt, Thorsten; Qin, Zhihui; Happel, Markus; Laurin, Mathias; Lykhach, Yaroslava; Shaikhutdinov, Shamil; Rohr, Friedemann; Libuda, Jörg

    2008-10-24

    Using scanning tunneling microscopy (STM), molecular-beam (MB) methods and time-resolved infrared reflection absorption spectroscopy (TR-IRAS), we investigate the mechanism of initial NO(x) uptake on a model nitrogen storage and reduction (NSR) catalyst. The model system is prepared by co-deposition of Pd metal particles and Ba-containing oxide particles onto an ordered alumina film on NiAl(110). We show that the metal-oxide interaction between the active noble metal particles and the NO(x) storage compound in NSR model catalysts plays an important role in the reaction mechanism. We suggest that strong interaction facilitates reverse spillover of activated oxygen species from the NO(x) storage compound to the metal. This process leads to partial oxidation of the metal nanoparticles and simultaneous stabilization of the surface nitrite intermediate.

  14. Continuous digital hypothermia initiated after the onset of lameness prevents lamellar failure in the oligofructose laminitis model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Eps, A W; Pollitt, C C; Underwood, C; Medina-Torres, C E; Goodwin, W A; Belknap, J K

    2014-09-01

    Prophylactic digital hypothermia reduces the severity of acute laminitis experimentally but there is no evidence for its efficacy as a treatment once lameness has already developed. To investigate the therapeutic effects of digital hypothermia, applied after the onset of lameness, in an experimental acute laminitis model. Randomised, controlled (within subject), blinded, experimental trial. Eight Standardbred horses underwent laminitis induction using the oligofructose model. Once lameness was detected at the walk, one forelimb was continuously cooled (CRYO), with the other forelimb maintained at ambient temperature (NON-RX). Dorsal lamellar sections (proximal, middle and distal) harvested 36 h after the onset of lameness/initiation of cryotherapy were analysed by 2 blinded observers: laminitis pathology was scored (0 [normal] to 4 [severe]) and morphometric analyses performed. Median (interquartile range) histological scores were greater (Plaminitis model. This study provides the first evidence to support the use of therapeutic digital hypothermia as a treatment for acute laminitis. © 2013 EVJ Ltd.

  15. Initial Attempts of Development and Characterization of an In Vitro Blood Brain Barrier Model Derived from Human Pluripotent Stem Cells

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Goldeman, Charlotte; Saaby, Lasse; Hall, Vanessa Jane

    The human blood brain barrier has yet to be successfully replicated as an in vitro model. One of the more promising approaches has been to develop an in vitro model derived from human pluripotent stem cells. However, as promising as this model may be, a successful replication of the differentiation...... method on different kinds of pluripotent stem cell lines have yet to be accomplished. We try to approach the promising method as described by Stebbins et al. (2015) to differentiate human pluripotent stem cells into brain like endothelial cells (BECs). Five different human pluripotent stem cell lines...... were screened for the possibility to differentiate into BECs. Tüb1159, Tüb16423, Bioni010-C, WTSli024-A and WTSli002-A stem cell lines were initially seeded on Matrigel cultured with mTESR1 media to confluence, then seeded on Matrigel as a single cell suspension. After two-three days of culture we...

  16. Ensemble-based flash-flood modelling: Taking into account hydrodynamic parameters and initial soil moisture uncertainties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edouard, Simon; Vincendon, Béatrice; Ducrocq, Véronique

    2018-05-01

    Intense precipitation events in the Mediterranean often lead to devastating flash floods (FF). FF modelling is affected by several kinds of uncertainties and Hydrological Ensemble Prediction Systems (HEPS) are designed to take those uncertainties into account. The major source of uncertainty comes from rainfall forcing and convective-scale meteorological ensemble prediction systems can manage it for forecasting purpose. But other sources are related to the hydrological modelling part of the HEPS. This study focuses on the uncertainties arising from the hydrological model parameters and initial soil moisture with aim to design an ensemble-based version of an hydrological model dedicated to Mediterranean fast responding rivers simulations, the ISBA-TOP coupled system. The first step consists in identifying the parameters that have the strongest influence on FF simulations by assuming perfect precipitation. A sensitivity study is carried out first using a synthetic framework and then for several real events and several catchments. Perturbation methods varying the most sensitive parameters as well as initial soil moisture allow designing an ensemble-based version of ISBA-TOP. The first results of this system on some real events are presented. The direct perspective of this work will be to drive this ensemble-based version with the members of a convective-scale meteorological ensemble prediction system to design a complete HEPS for FF forecasting.

  17. Modeling intercontinental transport of ozone in North America with CAMx for the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII) Phase 3

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nopmongcol, Uarporn; Liu, Zhen; Stoeckenius, Till; Yarwood, Greg

    2017-08-01

    Intercontinental ozone (O3) transport extends the geographic range of O3 air pollution impacts and makes local air pollution management more difficult. Phase 3 of the Air Quality Modeling Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII-3) is examining the contribution of intercontinental transport to regional air quality by applying regional-scale atmospheric models jointly with global models. We investigate methods for tracing O3 from global models within regional models. The CAMx photochemical grid model was used to track contributions from boundary condition (BC) O3 over a North American modeling domain for calendar year 2010 using a built-in tracer module called RTCMC. RTCMC can track BC contributions using chemically reactive tracers and also using inert tracers in which deposition is the only sink for O3. Lack of O3 destruction chemistry in the inert tracer approach leads to overestimation biases that can exceed 10 ppb. The flexibility of RTCMC also allows tracking O3 contributions made by groups of vertical BC layers. The largest BC contributions to seasonal average daily maximum 8 h averages (MDA8) of O3 over the US are found to be from the mid-troposphere (over 40 ppb) with small contributions (a few ppb) from the upper troposphere-lower stratosphere. Contributions from the lower troposphere are shown to not penetrate very far inland. Higher contributions in the western than the eastern US, reaching an average of 57 ppb in Denver for the 30 days with highest MDA8 O3 in 2010, present a significant challenge to air quality management approaches based solely on local or US-wide emission reductions. The substantial BC contribution to MDA8 O3 in the Intermountain West means regional models are particularly sensitive to any biases and errors in the BCs. A sensitivity simulation with reduced BC O3 in response to 20 % lower emissions in Asia found a near-linear relationship between the BC O3 changes and surface O3 changes in the western US in all seasons and across

  18. Modeling intercontinental transport of ozone in North America with CAMx for the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII Phase 3

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    U. Nopmongcol

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Intercontinental ozone (O3 transport extends the geographic range of O3 air pollution impacts and makes local air pollution management more difficult. Phase 3 of the Air Quality Modeling Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII-3 is examining the contribution of intercontinental transport to regional air quality by applying regional-scale atmospheric models jointly with global models. We investigate methods for tracing O3 from global models within regional models. The CAMx photochemical grid model was used to track contributions from boundary condition (BC O3 over a North American modeling domain for calendar year 2010 using a built-in tracer module called RTCMC. RTCMC can track BC contributions using chemically reactive tracers and also using inert tracers in which deposition is the only sink for O3. Lack of O3 destruction chemistry in the inert tracer approach leads to overestimation biases that can exceed 10 ppb. The flexibility of RTCMC also allows tracking O3 contributions made by groups of vertical BC layers. The largest BC contributions to seasonal average daily maximum 8 h averages (MDA8 of O3 over the US are found to be from the mid-troposphere (over 40 ppb with small contributions (a few ppb from the upper troposphere–lower stratosphere. Contributions from the lower troposphere are shown to not penetrate very far inland. Higher contributions in the western than the eastern US, reaching an average of 57 ppb in Denver for the 30 days with highest MDA8 O3 in 2010, present a significant challenge to air quality management approaches based solely on local or US-wide emission reductions. The substantial BC contribution to MDA8 O3 in the Intermountain West means regional models are particularly sensitive to any biases and errors in the BCs. A sensitivity simulation with reduced BC O3 in response to 20 % lower emissions in Asia found a near-linear relationship between the BC O3 changes and surface O3 changes in the

  19. Initial Assessment and Modeling Framework Development for Automated Mobility Districts: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hou, Yi [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Young, Stanley E [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Garikapati, Venu [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Chen, Yuche [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Zhu, Lei [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2018-02-07

    Automated vehicles (AVs) are increasingly being discussed as the basis for on-demand mobility services, introducing a new paradigm in which a fleet of AVs displaces private automobiles for day-to-day travel in dense activity districts. This paper examines a concept to displace privately owned automobiles within a region containing dense activity generators (jobs, retail, entertainment, etc.), referred to as an automated mobility district (AMD). This paper reviews several such districts, including airports, college campuses, business parks, downtown urban cores, and military bases, with examples of previous attempts to meet the mobility needs apart from private automobiles, some with automated technology and others with more traditional transit-based solutions. The issues and benefits of AMDs are framed within the perspective of intra-district, inter-district, and border issues, and the requirements for a modeling framework are identified to adequately reflect the breadth of mobility, energy, and emissions impact anticipated with AMDs

  20. Model development and experimental validation for analyzing initial transients of irradiation of tissues during thermal therapy using short pulse lasers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ganguly, Mohit; Miller, Stephanie; Mitra, Kunal

    2015-11-01

    Short pulse lasers with pulse durations in the range of nanoseconds and shorter are effective in the targeted delivery of heat energy for precise tissue heating and ablation. This photothermal therapy is useful where the removal of cancerous tissue sections is required. The objective of this paper is to use finite element modeling to demonstrate the differences in the thermal response of skin tissue to short-pulse and continuous wave laser irradiation in the initial stages of the irradiation. Models have been developed to validate the temperature distribution and heat affected zone during laser irradiation of excised rat skin samples and live anesthetized mouse tissue. Excised rat skin samples and live anesthetized mice were subjected to Nd:YAG pulsed laser (1,064 nm, 500 ns) irradiation of varying powers. A thermal camera was used to measure the rise in surface temperature as a result of the laser irradiation. Histological analyses of the heat affected zone created in the tissue samples due to the temperature rise were performed. The thermal interaction of the laser with the tissue was quantified by measuring the thermal dose delivered by the laser. Finite element geometries of three-dimensional tissue sections for continuum and vascular models were developed using COMSOL Multiphysics. Blood flow was incorporated into the vascular model to mimic the presence of discrete blood vessels and contrasted with the continuum model without blood perfusion. The temperature rises predicted by the continuum and the vascular models agreed with the temperature rises observed at the surface of the excised rat tissue samples and live anesthetized mice due to laser irradiation respectively. The vascular model developed was able to predict the cooling produced by the blood vessels in the region where the vessels were present. The temperature rise in the continuum model due to pulsed laser irradiation was higher than that due to continuous wave (CW) laser irradiation in the

  1. Numerical solution of a logistic growth model for a population with Allee effect considering fuzzy initial values and fuzzy parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amarti, Z.; Nurkholipah, N. S.; Anggriani, N.; Supriatna, A. K.

    2018-03-01

    Predicting the future of population number is among the important factors that affect the consideration in preparing a good management for the population. This has been done by various known method, one among them is by developing a mathematical model describing the growth of the population. The model usually takes form in a differential equation or a system of differential equations, depending on the complexity of the underlying properties of the population. The most widely used growth models currently are those having a sigmoid solution of time series, including the Verhulst logistic equation and the Gompertz equation. In this paper we consider the Allee effect of the Verhulst’s logistic population model. The Allee effect is a phenomenon in biology showing a high correlation between population size or density and the mean individual fitness of the population. The method used to derive the solution is the Runge-Kutta numerical scheme, since it is in general regarded as one among the good numerical scheme which is relatively easy to implement. Further exploration is done via the fuzzy theoretical approach to accommodate the impreciseness of the initial values and parameters in the model.

  2. Improving Mechanical Insight into Ring Fault Initiation and Caldera Formation via Elastic Models of Magma Reservoir Inflation (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grosfils, E. B.; McGovern, P. J.; Gregg, P. M.; Galgana, G. A.; Hurwitz, D. M.; Long, S.; Chestler, S.

    2013-12-01

    Elastic numerical models have become increasingly important for interpreting field data and gaining insight into the magmatic and volcanic processes spawned by shallow magma reservoirs on Earth and other planets. Using an approach introduced nearly a century ago, most researchers investigating magma reservoir inflation and rupture in response to the evolution of a subsurface magma reservoir have treated the reservoir as a cavity subjected only to over/underpressure in an otherwise unloaded elastic host. This approach is at times argued to be a more concise mathematical equivalent to solutions that retain a fully three-dimensional, gravitationally loaded stress tensor in the host rock. The two approaches are not equivalent, however, and detailed elucidation of this argument under diverse geological conditions (e.g., layering, edifice loading) has demonstrated the implications for several fundamental volcanic processes under an array of different conditions [cf. Grosfils, JVGR, 2007]. Given the importance of the link between subsurface magmatic processes and volcanic activity, gaining a better understanding of the basic assumptions underpinning these two endmember modeling approaches--and the attendant implications--is critical. In this presentation we intend to: (1) discuss what we see as the physical assumptions underpinning the two endmember model approaches, thereby framing a call for further field constraints upon the host rock conditions in the vicinity of a magma reservoir; (2) use models of ring fault formation and caldera initiation to illustrate the striking differences in outcome that can occur; (3) demonstrate that retaining the full gravitationally loaded host rock stress tensor reconciles comparable numerical and analogue model results, resolving persistent concerns regarding the ';mismatch' between outcomes obtained from these two complementary model styles; and, (4) briefly describe the importance--and limitations--of elastic model treatments when

  3. Study of initiation and growth of stress corrosion cracks. Quantitative characterization and modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peyrat, Christine

    1997-01-01

    A phenomenological study of Stress Corrosion Cracking (SCC) cracks initiation and growth was carried out on a Z 2 CN 18.10 stainless steel in a boiling aqueous magnesium chloride solution at 153 deg. C. The characterization method exploits the morphological information (cracks shape and size distribution) available on a specimen after SCC test. This method, independent of any mechanistic hypothesis, led to the analytical representation of the growth rate of a given crack as a function of its depth and of the density of deeper cracks. The presence of this last parameter could be the expression of a 'shielding effect' of mechanical origin, exerted by the cracks of large size. A 'true initiation' rate was calculated by an extrapolation based on the analytical expression of the growth rate. This analytical representation of cracks initiation and growth accounts for the saturation observed in the experimental determination of the 'apparent initiation'. As time goes, the number of cracks deeper than a given threshold depth tends towards a limit which depends very strongly on the chosen threshold. This saturation effect can be interpreted as exclusively due to the way the small cracks propagate, as the 'true initiation' rate can be expressed versus time by a simple power law. In the case of slow strain rate tests, it is shown that the kinetic parameters characteristic of initiation and growth depend on the applied elongation rate. In particular, the initial crack growth rate increases with elongation rate. The validity domains of the proposed expressions have been specified by means of SCC tests carried out under different types of mechanical loading. (author) [fr

  4. The influence of female social models in corporate STEM initiatives on girls' math and science attitudes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medeiros, Donald J.

    The United States' Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics (STEM) workforce is growing slower than in the past, in comparison to demand, and in comparison to other countries. Competitive talent conditions require the United States to develop a strong pipeline of STEM talent within its own citizens. Given the number of female college graduates and their underrepresentation in the STEM workforce, women provide the greatest opportunity for fulfilling this need. The term social model represents the individuals and media that shape children's self-perceptions. Social models have been shown to positively influence girl's perceptions of the value of math and science as well as their expectations of success. This study examined differences in attitudes towards math and science among student participants in corporate STEM programs. Differences were measured based on participant gender and ethnicity, their mentor's gender and ethnicity, and program design differences. The research purpose was to inform the design of corporate STEM programs to improve female participants' attitudes towards math and science and eventually increase the number of women in the STEM workforce. Over three hundred students in differing corporate STEM programs completed math and science attitudinal scales at the start and end of their programs. Study results revealed, prior to program start, female participants had a better attitude towards math and science than male participants. Analysis of the Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study data showed similar results. Overall program results demonstrated higher post program math and science attitudes with no differences based on gender, age, or ethnicity of the participant or mentor. Participants with high program or mentor satisfaction were found to have higher attitudes towards math and science. These results may suggest improving female academic choice requires more focus on their expectations of success than perceived task

  5. Modeling long-term risk to environmental and human systems at the Hanford Nuclear Reservation: Scope and findings from the initial model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scott, Michael J.; Brandt, Charles A.; Bunn, Amoret L.; Engel, David W.; Eslinger, Paul W.; Miley, Terri B.; Napier, Bruce A.; Prendergast-Kennedy, Ellen L.; Nieves, Leslie A.

    2005-01-01

    The Groundwater/Vadose Zone (GW/VZ) Integration Project at the U.S. Department of Energy's Hanford Site in Washington state is currently developing the tools and supporting data to assess the cumulative impact to human and ecological health and the region's economy and cultures from waste that will remain at the Hanford Site after the site closes. This integrated system of new and legacy models and data is known as the System Assessment Capability (SAC). The environmental transport modules of the SAC modeling system provide estimates of contaminant concentrations from Hanford Site sources in a time-dependent manner in the vadose zone, groundwater, and the Columbia River and its associated sediments. The Risk/Impact Module uses these estimates of media- and time-specific concentrations to estimate potential impacts on the ecology of the Columbia River corridor, the health of persons who might live in or use the corridor or the upland Hanford environment, the local economy, and the cultural resources. Preliminary Monte Carlo realizations from the SAC modeling system demonstrate the feasibility of large-scale uncertainty analysis of the complex relationships in environmental transport on the one hand and ecological, human, cultural, and economic risk on the other. Initial impact results show successful linking of codes and very small long-term risks for the 10 radionuclides and chemicals evaluated

  6. From Initial Models of Seismicity, Structure and Noise to Synthetic Seismograms for Mars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ceylan, Savas; van Driel, Martin; Euchner, Fabian; Khan, Amir; Clinton, John; Krischer, Lion; Böse, Maren; Stähler, Simon; Giardini, Domenico

    2017-10-01

    The InSight mission will land a single seismic station on Mars in November 2018, and the resultant seismicity catalog will be a key component for studies aiming to understand the interior structure of the planet. Here, we present a preliminary version of the web services that will be used to distribute the event and station metadata in practice, employing synthetic seismograms generated for Mars using a catalog of expected seismicity. Our seismicity catalog consists of 120 events with double-couple source mechanisms only. We also provide Green's functions databases for a total of 16 structural models, which are constructed to reflect one-dimensional thin (30 km) and thick (80 km) Martian crust with varying seismic wave speeds and densities, combined with two different profiles for temperature and composition for the mantle. Both the Green's functions databases and the precomputed seismograms are accessible online. These new utilities allow the researchers to either download the precomputed synthetic waveforms directly, or produce customized data sets using any desired source mechanism and event distribution via our servers.

  7. Initial Experimental Verification of the Neutron Beam Modeling for the LBNL BNCT Facility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bleuel, D.L.; Chu, W.T.; Donahue, R.J.; Ludewigt, B.A.; McDonald, R.J.; Smith, A.R.; Stone, N.A.; Vuji, J.

    1999-01-01

    In preparation for future clinical BNCT trials, neutron production via the 7Li(p,n) reaction as well as subsequent moderation to produce epithermal neutrons have been studied. Proper design of a moderator and filter assembly is crucial in producing an optimal epithermal neutron spectrum for brain tumor treatments. Based on in-phantom figures-of-merit,desirable assemblies have been identified. Experiments were performed at the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory's 88-inch cyclotron to characterize epithermal neutron beams created using several microampere of 2.5 MeV protons on a lithium target. The neutron moderating assembly consisted of Al/AlF3 and Teflon, with a lead reflector to produce an epithermal spectrum strongly peaked at 10-20 keV. The thermal neutron fluence was measured as a function of depth in a cubic lucite head phantom by neutron activation in gold foils. Portions of the neutron spectrum were measured by in-air activation of six cadmium-covered materials (Au, Mn, In, Cu, Co, W) with high epithermal neutron absorption resonances. The results are reasonably reproduced in Monte Carlo computational models, confirming their validity

  8. Local participation in biodiversity conservation initiatives: a comparative analysis of different models in South East Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Méndez-López, María Elena; García-Frapolli, Eduardo; Pritchard, Diana J; Sánchez González, María Consuelo; Ruiz-Mallén, Isabel; Porter-Bolland, Luciana; Reyes-Garcia, Victoria

    2014-12-01

    In Mexico, biodiversity conservation is primarily implemented through three schemes: 1) protected areas, 2) payment-based schemes for environmental services, and 3) community-based conservation, officially recognized in some cases as Indigenous and Community Conserved Areas. In this paper we compare levels of local participation across conservation schemes. Through a survey applied to 670 households across six communities in Southeast Mexico, we document local participation during the creation, design, and implementation of the management plan of different conservation schemes. To analyze the data, we first calculated the frequency of participation at the three different stages mentioned, then created a participation index that characterizes the presence and relative intensity of local participation for each conservation scheme. Results showed that there is a low level of local participation across all the conservation schemes explored in this study. Nonetheless, the payment for environmental services had the highest local participation while the protected areas had the least. Our findings suggest that local participation in biodiversity conservation schemes is not a predictable outcome of a specific (community-based) model, thus implying that other factors might be important in determining local participation. This has implications on future strategies that seek to encourage local involvement in conservation. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Learning Together 1: an educational model for training GPs, paediatricians: initial findings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macaulay, Chloe; Spicer, John; Riches, Wendy; Lakhanpaul, Monica

    2017-01-01

    Learning Together is primarily an educational intervention, where paediatric registrars [SpRs] and General Practice (GP) registrars [GPSTs] see children together in a primary care setting. Over a six month period in 2013/2014, 44 learning pairs were set up mainly in North East and Central London. Proof of concept for the model at scale was achieved. Reported learning demonstrated: clinical learning themes of new knowledge, skill and communication skills; and collaborative themes of ongoing collaboration, satisfaction with team working and change in attitudes. These themes were identified in both sets of trainees. The self-reported learning is backed up by the results of a retrospective notes review of four common conditions based on NICE guidelines; constipation, asthma, feverish illness and eczema (CAFE). Guidance adherence improved from 57% before the intervention in solo GP training consultations to 72% during the joint clinic intervention (p confidence to manage their children's health following the consultation. A second, linked article examines the cost utility of Learning Together in its South London extension.

  10. Perceiving the initial note: quantitative models of how listeners parse cyclical auditory patterns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Minhong; Getz, Laura; Kubovy, Michael

    2015-11-01

    In this paper, we explore the rules followed by the auditory system in grouping temporal patterns. Imagine the following cyclical pattern (which we call an "auditory necklace"-AN for short-because those patterns are best visualized as beads arranged on a circle) consisting of notes (1s) and rests (0s): … 1110011011100110 …. It is perceived either as repeating 11100110 or as repeating 11011100. We devised a method to explore the temporal segmentation of ANs. In two experiments, while an AN was played, a circular array of icons appeared on the screen. At the time of each event (i.e., note or rest), one icon was highlighted; the highlight moved cyclically around the circular array. The participants were asked to click on the icon that corresponded to the note they perceived as the starting point, or clasp, of the AN. The best account of the segmentation of our ANs is based on Garner's (1974) run and gap principles. An important feature of our probabilistic model is the way in which it combines the effects of run length and gap length: additively. This result is an auditory analogue of Kubovy and van den Berg's (2008) discovery of the additivity of the effects of two visual grouping principles (proximity and similarity) conjointly applied to the same stimulus.

  11. Using Mobile Health to Support the Chronic Care Model: Developing an Institutional Initiative

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shantanu Nundy

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. Self-management support and team-based care are essential elements of the Chronic Care Model but are often limited by staff availability and reimbursement. Mobile phones are a promising platform for improving chronic care but there are few examples of successful health system implementation. Program Development. An iterative process of program design was built upon a pilot study and engaged multiple institutional stakeholders. Patients identified having a “human face” to the pilot program as essential. Stakeholders recognized the need to integrate the program with primary and specialty care but voiced concerns about competing demands on clinician time. Program Description. Nurse administrators at a university-affiliated health plan use automated text messaging to provide personalized self-management support for member patients with diabetes and facilitate care coordination with the primary care team. For example, when a patient texts a request to meet with a dietitian, a nurse-administrator coordinates with the primary care team to provide a referral. Conclusion. Our innovative program enables the existing health system to support a de novo care management program by leveraging mobile technology. The program supports self-management and team-based care in a way that we believe engages patients yet meets the limited availability of providers and needs of health plan administrators.

  12. Interference contributions to gluon initiated heavy Higgs production in the Two-Higgs-Doublet Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Greiner, Nicolas

    2016-03-01

    We discuss the production of a heavy neutral Higgs boson of a CP-conserving Two-Higgs-Doublet Model in gluon fusion and its decay into a four-fermion final state, gg(→VV)→e + e - π + π - /e + e - ν l anti ν l . We investigate the interference contributions to invariant mass distributions of the four-fermion final state and other relevant kinematical observables. The relative importance of the different contributions is quantified for the process in the on-shell approximation, gg→ZZ. We show that interferences of the heavy Higgs with the light Higgs boson and background contributions are essential for a correct description of the differential cross section. Even though they contribute below O(10%) to those heavy Higgs signal cross sections, to which the experiments at the Large Hadron Collider were sensitive in its first run, we find that they are sizeable in certain regions of the parameter space that are relevant for future heavy Higgs boson searches. In fact, the interference contributions can significantly enhance the experimental sensitivity to the heavy Higgs boson.

  13. Getting Started: An Empirically Derived Logic Model for Age-Friendly Community Initiatives in the Early Planning Phase.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greenfield, Emily A

    2018-02-16

    Age-friendly community initiatives (AFCIs) foster efforts across stakeholders to make localities more supportive and inclusive of older adults, and potentially better for residents of all ages. This study drew on in-depth interviews with leaders of nine newly forming AFCIs in northern New Jersey to develop an empirically based logic model for the initiatives in the early planning phase. The results obtained from a conventional content analysis indicated three main activities in the early planning phase: assessing the community; meeting; and communicating with stakeholders; and facilitating communitywide communications. These activities worked toward two outputs: increased understanding of aging in the community and more engaged stakeholders in aging. Participants described leveraging the contributions of lead staff, consultants, elected officials, organizational partners, volunteers, interns, funders, and other AFCIs to engage in their focal activities. Based on these findings, a logic model for AFCIs in the early planning phase is presented. AFCI leaders can draw on this model to evaluate AFCI processes and outcomes in their formative stages, as well as to strategically plan for the start of an AFCI within a given locality. Findings also suggest important directions for future research on the development of AFCIs and the community changes that they seek to influence.

  14. Prospective influence of music-related media exposure on adolescent substance-use initiation: a peer group mediation model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slater, Michael D; Henry, Kimberly L

    2013-01-01

    The present study tests prospective effects of music-related media content (from television, Internet, and magazines) on youth alcohol, cigarette, and marijuana use initiation. Indirect effects through association with substance-using peers were tested in a 4-wave longitudinal data set (2,729 middle school students for the alcohol model, 2,716 students for the cigarette model, and 2,710 students for the marijuana model) from schools across the United States. In so doing, the authors examine theoretical claims regarding socialization mechanisms for effects of popular music listenership on substance use initiation. Results supported direct effects on alcohol and cigarette uptake, and indirect effects through association with substance-using peers on all 3 substances. This research, in combination with prior studies by several research teams, suggests elevated popular music involvement is a risk factor with respect to younger adolescents' substance use behavior. This influence is in part explained by the role of music-related media content in socialization to substance-using peer groups.

  15. Baylor SBIRT Medical Residency Training Program: model description and initial evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bray, James H; Kowalchuk, Alicia; Waters, Vicki; Laufman, Larry; Shilling, Elizabeth H

    2012-01-01

    The Baylor College of Medicine SBIRT Medical Residency Training Program is a multilevel project that trains residents and faculty in evidenced-based screening, brief intervention, and referral to treatment (SBIRT) methods for alcohol and substance use problems. This paper describes the training program and provides initial evaluation after the first year of the project. The program was successfully incorporated into the residency curricula in family medicine, internal medicine, and psychiatry. Initial evaluations indicate a high degree of satisfaction with the program and, despite a slight decrease in satisfaction scores, participants remained satisfied with the program after 30 days. Implementation barriers, solutions, and future directions of the program are discussed.

  16. Understanding Changes in Modeled Land Surface Characteristics Prior to Lightning-Initiated Holdover Fire Breakout

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schultz, Christopher J.; Case, Jonathan L.; Hain, Christopher R.; White, Kristopher; Wachter, J. Brent; Nauslar, Nicholas; MacNamara, Brittany

    2018-01-01

    Lightning initiated wildfires are only 16% of the total number of wildfires within the United States, but account for 56% of the acreage burned. One of the challenges with lightning-initiated wildfires is their ability to "holdover" which means smolder for up to 2+ weeks before breaking out into a full fledged fire. This work helps characterize the percentage of holdover events due to lightning, and helps quantify changes in the land surface characteristics to help understand trends in soil moisture and vegetation stress that potentially contribute to the fire breaking out into a full wildfire.

  17. Constraining models of initial state with v{sub 2} and v{sub 3} data from LHC and RHIC

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Retinskaya, Ekaterina, E-mail: ekaterina.retinskaya@cea.fr [CEA, IPhT, Institut de physique théorique de Saclay, F-91191 Gif-sur-Yvette (France); Luzum, Matthew, E-mail: MWLuzum@lbl.gov [McGill University, 3600 University Street, Montreal QC H3A 2TS (Canada); Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA 94720 (United States); Ollitrault, Jean-Yves, E-mail: jean-yves.ollitrault@cea.fr [CNRS, URA2306, IPhT, Institut de physique théorique de Saclay, F-91191 Gif-sur-Yvette (France)

    2014-06-15

    We present a combined analysis of elliptic and triangular flow data from LHC and RHIC using viscous relativistic hydrodynamics. Elliptic flow v{sub 2} in hydrodynamics is proportional to the participant eccentricity ε{sub 2} and triangular flow is proportional to the participant triangularity ε{sub 3}, which means v{sub n}=κ{sub n}ε{sub n}, where κ{sub n} is the linear response coefficient in harmonic n. Experimental data for v{sub 2} and v{sub 3} combined with hydrodynamic calculations of κ{sub n} thus provide us with the rms values of initial anisotropies ε{sub 2} and ε{sub 3}. By varying free parameters in the hydro calculation (in particular the shear viscosity), we obtain an allowed band in the (rms ε{sub 2}, rms ε{sub 3}) plane. Comparison with Monte Carlo models of the initial state allows us to exclude several of these models. We illustrate that the effect of changing the granularity of the initial state is similar to changing the medium properties, making these effects difficult to disentangle.

  18. The Conewago Creek initiative: a model for community watershed engagement and restoration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matt Royer; Kristen Kyler; Jennifer Fetter

    2016-01-01

    Over the last several years, a partnership of over thirty organizations called the Conewago Creek Initiative has been working cooperatively in a small watershed to increase community engagement and work with farmers and landowners to adopt land management practices to improve water quality.

  19. AN INITIAL DESIGN OF ISO 19152:2012 LADM BASED VALUATION AND TAXATION DATA MODEL

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cagdas, Volkan; Kara, A.; van Oosterom, P.

    2016-01-01

    . It is expected that the initial version will be refined through further activities held by a possible joint working group under FIG Commission 7 (Cadastre and Land Management) and FIG Commission 9 (Valuation and the Management of Real Estate) in collaboration with other relevant international bodies....

  20. Marketing an Alternate Model for Science and Mathematics Initial Teacher Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seen, Andrew; Fraser, Sharon P.; Beswick, Kim; Penson, Margaret; Whannell, Robert

    2016-01-01

    An innovative initial teacher education undergraduate degree has been offered for the first time in 2016 at an Australian University. The degree provides for qualification as a secondary science and mathematics teacher through the completion of a four-year-integrated science, mathematics and education program of study where the synergies available…

  1. Role of initial depth at basin margins in sequence architecture: field examples and computer models

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Uličný, David; Nichols, G.; Waltham, D.

    2002-01-01

    Roč. 14, č. 3 (2002), s. 347-360 ISSN 0950-091X R&D Projects: GA ČR GA205/01/0629 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z3012916 Keywords : basin margin * initial depth * sedimentation * depositional sequences Subject RIV: DB - Geology ; Mineralogy Impact factor: 2.022, year: 2002

  2. An Overview of the U.S. Better Buildings Initiative as a Model for Other Countries

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liu, Xu [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). China Energy Group; Ge, Jing [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). China Energy Group; Feng, Wei [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). China Energy Group; Zhou, Nan [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). China Energy Group

    2017-12-20

    This report offers a comprehensive overview of the U.S. Better Building Initiative, including the program structure, management and implementation. The report also summarizes lessons learned for a U.S. audience and offers approaches that might be replicated in China and elsewhere.

  3. Towards improved animal models for evaluating social cognition and its disruption in schizophrenia: the CNTRICS initiative.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Millan, Mark J; Bales, Karen L

    2013-11-01

    Social cognition refers to processes used to monitor and interpret social signals from others, to decipher their state of mind, emotional status and intentions, and select appropriate social behaviour. Social cognition is sophisticated in humans, being embedded with verbal language and enacted in a complex cultural environment. Its disruption characterises the entire course of schizophrenia and is correlated with poor functional outcome. Further, deficits in social cognition are related to impairment in other cognitive domains, positive symptoms (paranoia and delusions) and negative symptoms (social withdrawal and reduced motivation). In light of the significance and inadequate management of social cognition deficits, there is a need for translatable experimental procedures for their study, and identification of effective pharmacotherapy. No single paradigm captures the multi-dimensional nature of social cognition, and procedures for assessing ability to infer mental states are not well-developed for experimental therapeutic settings. Accordingly, a recent CNTRICS meeting prioritised procedures for measuring a specific construct: "acquisition and recognition of affective (emotional) states", coupled to individual recognition. Two complementary paradigms for refinement were identified: social recognition/preference in rodents, and visual tracking of social scenes in non-human primates (NHPs). Social recognition is disrupted in genetic, developmental or pharmacological disease models for schizophrenia, and performance in both procedures is improved by the neuropeptide oxytocin. The present article surveys a broad range of procedures for studying social cognition in rodents and NHPs, discusses advantages and drawbacks, and focuses on development of social recognition/preference and gaze-following paradigms for improved study of social cognition deficits in schizophrenia and their potential treatment. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. An Integrated Economics Model for ISRU in Support of a Mars Colony - Initial Status Report

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shishko, Robert; Fradet, Rene; Saydam, Serkan; Tapia-Cortez, Carlos; Dempster, Andrew G.; Coulton, Jeff

    2015-01-01

    The aim of this effort is to develop an integrated set of risk-based financial and technical models to evaluate multiple Off-Earth Mining (OEM) scenarios. This quantitative, scenario- and simulation-based tool will help identify combinations of market variables, technical parameters, and policy levers that will enable the expansion of the global economy into the solar system and return economic benefits. Human ventures in space are entering a new phase in which missions formerly driven by government agencies are now being replaced by those led by commercial enterprises - in launch, satellite deployment, resupply of the International Space Station, and space tourism. In the not-too-distant future, commercial opportunities will also include the mining of asteroids, the Moon, and Mars. This investigation will examine the role of OEM in a growing space economy. (In this investigation, the term 'mining' is taken to embrace minerals, ice/water, and other in situ resources.) OEM can be the engine that drives the space economy, so it would be useful to understand what OEM market conditions and technology requirements are needed for that economy to prosper. These specific elements will be studied in the wider context of creating an economy that could ultimately support a sustainable Mars Colony. Such a colony will need in situ resources not only for its own survival, but to prosper and grow, it must create viable business ventures, essentially by fulfilling the demand for in situ resources from and on Mars. This investigation will focus on understanding the role and economic prospect for OEM associated with the Human Colonization of Mars (HCM).

  5. Variations of the stellar initial mass function in semi-analytical models - II. The impact of cosmic ray regulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fontanot, Fabio; De Lucia, Gabriella; Xie, Lizhi; Hirschmann, Michaela; Bruzual, Gustavo; Charlot, Stéphane

    2018-04-01

    Recent studies proposed that cosmic rays (CRs) are a key ingredient in setting the conditions for star formation, thanks to their ability to alter the thermal and chemical state of dense gas in the ultraviolet-shielded cores of molecular clouds. In this paper, we explore their role as regulators of the stellar initial mass function (IMF) variations, using the semi-analytic model for GAlaxy Evolution and Assembly (GAEA). The new model confirms our previous results obtained using the integrated galaxy-wide IMF (IGIMF) theory. Both variable IMF models reproduce the observed increase of α-enhancement as a function of stellar mass and the measured z = 0 excess of dynamical mass-to-light ratios with respect to photometric estimates assuming a universal IMF. We focus here on the mismatch between the photometrically derived (M^app_{\\star }) and intrinsic (M⋆) stellar masses, by analysing in detail the evolution of model galaxies with different values of M_{\\star }/M^app_{\\star }. We find that galaxies with small deviations (i.e. formally consistent with a universal IMF hypothesis) are characterized by more extended star formation histories and live in less massive haloes with respect to the bulk of the galaxy population. In particular, the IGIMF theory does not change significantly the mean evolution of model galaxies with respect to the reference model, a CR-regulated IMF instead implies shorter star formation histories and higher peaks of star formation for objects more massive than 1010.5 M⊙. However, we also show that it is difficult to unveil this behaviour from observations, as the key physical quantities are typically derived assuming a universal IMF.

  6. Review of Phenomenological Models for the Initial Phase HCDA Analysis in a Metal-Fueled Sodium-Cooled Fast Reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kwon, Young Min; Lee, Ki Rim; Ha, Kwi Seok; Chang, Won Pyo; Suk, Soo Dong

    2009-03-01

    The safety aspects of the KALIMER design results from the advanced safety performance characteristics of its ternary alloy metallic fuel. The superior thermal, mechanical, and neutronic performance of the metal-fueled core assures inherent safety response to unprotected and multiple fault accidents which are HCDA initiating events. HCDA has received great attentions because of its significant consequence, leading to substantial core disruption, although its probability of occurrence is very low. The SAS4A code provides an integrated quantitative framework for examining the phenomenological behaviors under HCDA conditions. Various phenomenological models such as prefailure characterization, transient pin response, margins to cladding failure, axial in-pin fuel relocation prior to cladding breach, and molten fuel relocation after cladding breach are required for the HCDA analysis. The important mechanisms which introduce negative reactivity during HCDA are fuel extrusion and in-pin fuel relocation, and structural feedback through thermal-mechanical neutronic effects. This report describes the safety performance characteristics of the metal fuel as observed in ex-pile and in-pile tests, and describes associated theoretical models employed into the SAS4A HCDA analysis code. Most of such tests and experiments, and development of theoretical models have been performed for the IFR program by ANL. This report provides a phenomenological basis for gaining an understanding of the metal fuel performance characteristics that obtained from expile experiments and in-pile tests. This report will provide insight and direction for planning HCDA experiments and developing theoretical models in Korea later

  7. Quantitative characterization of initiation and propagation in stress corrosion cracking. An approach of a phenomenological model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Raquet, O.

    1994-01-01

    A purely phenomenological study of stress corrosion cracking was performed using the couple Z2CN 18.10 (304L) austenitic stainless steel/boiling MgCl 2 aqueous solution. The exploitation of the morphological information (shape of the cracks and size distribution) available after constant elongation rate tests led to the proposal of an analytical expression of the crack initiation and growth rates. This representation allowed to quantitatively characterize the influence of the applied strain rate as well as the effect of corrosion inhibitors on the crack initiation and propagation phases. It can be used in the search for the stress corrosion cracking mechanisms as a 'riddle' for the determination of the rate controlling steps. As a matter of fact, no mechanistic hypothesis has been used for its development. (author)

  8. A Modeling Study of the Initial Formation of Polar Lows in the Vicinity of the Arctic Front

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Igor Mingalev

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available A regional mathematical model of the wind system of the lower atmosphere, developed recently in the Polar Geophysical Institute, is applied to investigate the initial stage of the formation of polar lows at latitudes of the European Arctic. The mathematical model is based on numerical solving of nonsimplified gas dynamic equations and produces three-dimensional distributions of the atmospheric parameters in the height range from 0 to 15 km over a limited region of the Earth’s surface. Simulation results indicated that the origin of a convexity in the configuration of the arctic front can lead to the formation of a polar low during the period of about one day.

  9. A four-step model: Initiating writing development at faculty level using Master’s thesis workshops as a vehicle

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Tine Wirenfeldt; Jensen, Eva Naur; Bay, Gina

    traditions for addressing academic writing development at a central level. This paper presents a four-step model for initiating development of academic writing skills at such faculties. The model was developed, tested and evaluated in the fall 2015 in collaboration with all seven departments at Aarhus......In recent years, Danish university education has seen a rise of regulation from central government, intended to significantly reduce student’s degree completion time (The Study Progress Reform, 2013). One of the many effects of the reform is a reduction of the time available for students to write...... a Master’s thesis, as well as less flexibility regarding when the Master’s thesis process begins and ends. The reform has created an immediate need for increased support of academic writing development. This presents a challenge to all faculties, but especially those without writing centers or prior...

  10. Investigating community-led broadband initiatives as a model for neo-endogenous development

    OpenAIRE

    Bosworth, Gary; Salemink, Koen

    2014-01-01

    In the context of community-led local development, this research aims to understand the blend of top down and bottom up influences that combine in campaigns for improved rural broadband provision. The representativeness of the membership of rural community broadband initiatives and the motivations and dominant arguments behind their campaigns are analysed from the perspective of neo-endogenous development, which concerns endogenous actors linking to exogenous networks and resources to raise “...

  11. Testing multi-theory model (MTM) in predicting initiation and sustenance of physical activity behavior among college students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nahar, Vinayak K; Sharma, Manoj; Catalano, Hannah Priest; Ickes, Melinda J; Johnson, Paul; Ford, M Allison

    2016-01-01

    Most college students do not adequately participate in enough physical activity (PA) to attain health benefits. A theory-based approach is critical in developing effective interventions to promote PA. The purpose of this study was to examine the utility of the newly proposed multi-theory model (MTM) of health behavior change in predicting initiation and sustenance of PA among college students. Using a cross-sectional design, a valid and reliable survey was administered in October 2015 electronically to students enrolled at a large Southern US University. The internal consistency Cronbach alphas of the subscales were acceptable (0.65-0.92). Only those who did not engage in more than 150 minutes of moderate to vigorous intensity aerobic PA during the past week were included in this study. Of the 495 respondents, 190 met the inclusion criteria of which 141 completed the survey. The majority of participants were females (72.3%) and Caucasians (70.9%). Findings of the confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) confirmed construct validity of subscales (initiation model: χ2 = 253.92 [df = 143], P model: χ2= 19.40 [df = 22], P < 0.001, CFI = 1.00, RMSEA = 0.00, SRMR = 0.03). Multivariate regression analysis showed that 26% of the variance in the PA initiation was explained by advantages outweighing disadvantages, behavioral confidence, work status, and changes in physical environment. Additionally, 29.7% of the variance in PA sustenance was explained by emotional transformation, practice for change, and changes in social environment. Based on this study's findings, MTM appears to be a robust theoretical framework for predicting PA behavior change. Future research directions and development of suitable intervention strategies are discussed.

  12. A conceptual model of optimal international service-learning and its application to global health initiatives in rehabilitation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pechak, Celia M; Thompson, Mary

    2009-11-01

    There is growing involvement by US clinicians, faculty members, and students in global health initiatives, including international service-learning (ISL). Limited research has been done to examine the profession's increasing global engagement, or the ISL phenomenon in particular, and no research has been done to determine best practices. This study was intended as an early step in the examination of the physical therapy profession's role and activities in the global health arena within and beyond academics. The purposes of this study were: (1) to identify and analyze the common structures and processes among established ISL programs within physical therapist education programs and (2) to develop a conceptual model of optimal ISL within physical therapist education programs. A descriptive, exploratory study was completed using grounded theory. Telephone interviews were completed with 14 faculty members who had been involved in international service, international learning, or ISL in physical therapist education programs. Interviews were transcribed, and transcriptions were analyzed using the grounded theory method. Four major themes emerged from the data: structure, reciprocity, relationship, and sustainability. A conceptual model of and a proposed definition for optimal ISL in physical therapist education were developed. Seven essential components of the conceptual model are: a partner that understands the role of physical therapy, community-identified needs, explicit service and learning objectives, reflection, preparation, risk management, and service and learning outcome measures. Essential consequences are positive effects on students and community. The conceptual model and definition of optimal ISL can be used to direct development of new ISL programs and to improve existing programs. In addition, they can offer substantive guidance to any physical therapist involved in global health initiatives.

  13. On the sensitivity of teleseismic full-waveform inversion to earth parametrization, initial model and acquisition design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beller, S.; Monteiller, V.; Combe, L.; Operto, S.; Nolet, G.

    2018-02-01

    Full-waveform inversion (FWI) is not yet a mature imaging technology for lithospheric imaging from teleseismic data. Therefore, its promise and pitfalls need to be assessed more accurately according to the specifications of teleseismic experiments. Three important issues are related to (1) the choice of the lithospheric parametrization for optimization and visualization, (2) the initial model and (3) the acquisition design, in particular in terms of receiver spread and sampling. These three issues are investigated with a realistic synthetic example inspired by the CIFALPS experiment in the Western Alps. Isotropic elastic FWI is implemented with an adjoint-state formalism and aims to update three parameter classes by minimization of a classical least-squares difference-based misfit function. Three different subsurface parametrizations, combining density (ρ) with P and S wave speeds (Vp and Vs) , P and S impedances (Ip and Is), or elastic moduli (λ and μ) are first discussed based on their radiation patterns before their assessment by FWI. We conclude that the (ρ, λ, μ) parametrization provides the FWI models that best correlate with the true ones after recombining a posteriori the (ρ, λ, μ) optimization parameters into Ip and Is. Owing to the low frequency content of teleseismic data, 1-D reference global models as PREM provide sufficiently accurate initial models for FWI after smoothing that is necessary to remove the imprint of the layering. Two kinds of station deployments are assessed: coarse areal geometry versus dense linear one. We unambiguously conclude that a coarse areal geometry should be favoured as it dramatically increases the penetration in depth of the imaging as well as the horizontal resolution. This results because the areal geometry significantly increases local wavenumber coverage, through a broader sampling of the scattering and dip angles, compared to a linear deployment.

  14. Study on the Withdrawal Way of Silk Road Fund under the Belt and Road Initiative Based on Game Theory Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qu Yingying

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The Silk Road Fund is an important financial support of The Belt and Road Initiative, it has a strict investment operation process to realize the capital appreciation, so the withdrawal is crucial. This paper models the utility game and find the game mechanism between Silk Road Fund and target enterprise. And then we put forward some referential suggestions such as choosing suitable withdraw opportunity, perfecting talent team and information transmission mechanism,strengthening cooperation with local government, making effective use of gambling agreement and actively exploring new exit mode.

  15. Reducing software security risk through an integrated approach research initiative model based verification of the Secure Socket Layer (SSL) Protocol

    Science.gov (United States)

    Powell, John D.

    2003-01-01

    This document discusses the verification of the Secure Socket Layer (SSL) communication protocol as a demonstration of the Model Based Verification (MBV) portion of the verification instrument set being developed under the Reducing Software Security Risk (RSSR) Trough an Integrated Approach research initiative. Code Q of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) funds this project. The NASA Goddard Independent Verification and Validation (IV&V) facility manages this research program at the NASA agency level and the Assurance Technology Program Office (ATPO) manages the research locally at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (California institute of Technology) where the research is being carried out.

  16. Molecular Theory of Detonation Initiation: Insight from First Principles Modeling of the Decomposition Mechanisms of Organic Nitro Energetic Materials

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roman V. Tsyshevsky

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available This review presents a concept, which assumes that thermal decomposition processes play a major role in defining the sensitivity of organic energetic materials to detonation initiation. As a science and engineering community we are still far away from having a comprehensive molecular detonation initiation theory in a widely agreed upon form. However, recent advances in experimental and theoretical methods allow for a constructive and rigorous approach to design and test the theory or at least some of its fundamental building blocks. In this review, we analyzed a set of select experimental and theoretical articles, which were augmented by our own first principles modeling and simulations, to reveal new trends in energetic materials and to refine known existing correlations between their structures, properties, and functions. Our consideration is intentionally limited to the processes of thermally stimulated chemical reactions at the earliest stage of decomposition of molecules and materials containing defects.

  17. Diffusion kurtosis imaging of a human nasopharyngeal carcinoma xenograft model: Initial experience with pathological correlation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhong, Jing; Shi, Peng; Chen, Yunbin; Huang, Rongfang; Xiao, Youping; Zheng, Xiang; Zheng, Dechun; Peng, Li

    2018-04-01

    The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between diffusion kurtosis imaging (DKI)-related parameters and pathological measures using human nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) xenografts in a nude mouse model. Twenty-six BALB/c-nu nude mice were divided into two groups that were injected with two different nasopharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma cell lines (CNE1 and CNE2). DK magnetic resonance (MR) imaging was performed on a 3.0 Tesla MR scanner. DWI and DKI-related parameters, including apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC), mean diffusivity (MD) and mean kurtosis (MK) were measured. Mice were euthanatized when the maximum diameter of the primary tumor reached 1.5cm after MR scanning. Tumor tissues were then processed for hematoxylin and eosin staining. The pathological images were analyzed using a computer-aided pixel-wise clustering method to evaluate tumor cellular density, nuclei portion, cytoplasm portion, extracellular space portion, the ratio of nuclei to cytoplasm and the ratio of nuclei to extracellular space. The relationships between DWI and DKI-related parameters and pathological features were analyzed statistically. The ADC and MD values of the CNE1 group (1.16±0.24×10 -3 mm 2 /s, 2.28±0.29×10 -3 mm 2 /s) was higher than that of the CNE2 group (0.82±0.14×10 -3 mm 2 /s, 1.53±0.24×10 -3 mm 2 /s, P0.05). A Pearson test showed that the ADC and MD values were significantly correlated with cellular density, nuclei portion, extracellular space portion and the ratio of nuclei to extracellular space (r=-0.861; -0.909, P<0.001; r=-0.487; 0.591, P<0.05; r=0.567; 0.625, P<0.05; r=-0.645; -0.745, P<0.001, respectively). The MK values were significantly correlated with nuclei portion, cytoplasm portion and the ratio of nuclei to cytoplasm (r=-0.475, P<0.05; r=0.665, P<0.001; r=-0.494, P<0.05, respectively). The preliminary animal results suggest that DKI findings can provide valuable bio-information for NPC tissue characterization. DKI imaging

  18. Applicability of the bi-material notch model to analysis of failure initiation in compound structures

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Klusák, Jan; Knésl, Zdeněk

    2008-01-01

    Roč. 4, č. 13 (2008), s. 7-10 ISSN 1801-1217. [Mechanika kompozitních materiálů a konstrukcí. Praha, 13.03.2008] R&D Projects: GA ČR GA101/08/0994 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z20410507 Keywords : bi-material notch * failure initiation * composite materials Subject RIV: JL - Materials Fatigue, Friction Mechanics http://www.bulletin-am.cz/index.php/vam/issue/view/15

  19. Chemoprevention of Prostate Cancer Initiation in a Novel Transgenic Mouse Model by Targeting 15-Lipoxygenase-1

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-02-01

    Normal-fat diet (control) was also isocaloric when adjusted by adding dextrin and corn-oil. Initially we took a total of 101 athymic male...fatty acids such as 181 SDA are currently being developed [28]. Normal-fat diet (control) was also isocaloric when adjusted 182 by adding dextrin and... Dextrin 38.6 18.6 18.6 Corn Oil 5.0 0.0 0.0 Lard 10.0 0.0 0.0 † Table 1: SDA dietLA diet % of total phospholipids Linoleic acid (LA) Eicosapentaenoic

  20. Using Ensemble Short-Term Initialized Coupled NASA GEOS5 Climate Model Integrations to Study Convective Bias Growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohen, Charlie; Robertson, Franklin; Molod, Andrea

    2014-01-01

    The representation of convective processes, particularly deep convection in the tropics, remains a persistent problem in climate models. In fact structural biases in the distribution of tropical rainfall in the CMIP5 models is hardly different than that of the CMIP3 versions. Given that regional climate change at higher latitudes is sensitive to the configuration of tropical forcing, this persistent bias is a major issue for the credibility of climate change projections. In this study we use model output from integrations of the NASA Global Earth Observing System Five (GEOS5) climate modeling system to study the evolution of biases in the location and intensity of convective processes. We take advantage of a series of hindcast experiments done in support of the US North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) initiative. For these experiments a nine-month forecast using a coupled model configuration is made approximately every five days over the past 30 years. Each forecast is started with an updated analysis of the ocean, atmosphere and land states. For a given calendar month we have approximately 180 forecasts with daily means of various quantities. These forecasts can be averaged to essentially remove "weather scales" and highlight systematic errors as they evolve. Our primary question is to ask how the spatial structure of daily mean precipitation over the tropics evolves from the initial state and what physical processes are involved. Errors in parameterized convection, various water and energy fluxes and the divergent circulation are found to set up on fast time scales (order five days) compared to errors in the ocean, although SST changes can be non-negligible over that time. For the month of June the difference between forecast day five versus day zero precipitation looks quite similar to the difference between the June precipitation climatology and that from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). We focus much of our analysis on the influence of

  1. Application of expert system technology to nondestructive waste assay - initial prototype model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Becker, G.K.; Determan, J.C.

    1997-01-01

    Expert system technology has been identified as a technique useful for filling certain types of technology/capability gaps in existing waste nondestructive assay (NDA) applications. In particular, expert system techniques are being investigated with the intent of providing on-line evaluation of acquired data and/or directed acquisition of data in a manner that mimics the logic and decision making process a waste NDA expert would employ. The space from which information and data sources utilized in this process is much expanded with respect to the algorithmic approach typically utilized in waste NDA. Expert system technology provides a mechanism to manage and reason with this expanded information/data set. The material presented in this paper concerns initial studies and a resultant prototype expert system that incorporates pertinent information, and evaluation logic and decision processes, for the purpose of validating acquired waste NDA measurement assays. 6 refs., 6 figs

  2. Modeling Initial Stage of Ablation Material Pyrolysis: Graphitic Precursor Formation and Interfacial Effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Desai, Tapan G.; Lawson, John W.; Keblinski, Pawel

    2010-01-01

    Reactive molecular dynamics simulations are used to study initial stage of pyrolysis of ablation materials and their composites with carbon nanotubes and carbon fibers. The products formed during pyrolysis are characterized and water is found as the primary product in all cases. The water formation mechanisms are analyzed and the value of the activation energy for water formation is estimated. A detailed study on graphitic precursor formation reveals the presence of two temperature zones. In the lower temperature zone (less than 2000 K) polymerization occurs resulting in formation of large, stable graphitic precursors, and in the high temperature zone (greater than 2000 K) polymer scission results in formation of short polymer chains/molecules. Simulations performed in the high temperature zone on the phenolic resin composites (with carbon nanotubes and carbon fibers) shows that the presence of interfaces had no substantial effect on the chain scission rate or the activation energy value for water formation.

  3. The UK Pathology Harmony initiative; The foundation of a global model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berg, Jonathan

    2014-05-15

    The United Kingdom Pathology Harmony project commenced in 2007 and has been widely mirrored around the world. This initiative evolved through three separate phases of work. Fundamental to the project has been the ability to question variation in the work of the pathology laboratory that has been in place sometimes for a very long time, and yet appears to have little scientific foundation. Work has been undertaken on a methodological approach to studying variation in reference intervals and then moving forward with consensus values. On a wider level there is much else in pathology that can be harmonised from test names and units, through to the clinical guidance we offer for using our tests and work has been undertaken in several of these areas. © 2013.

  4. London Model of Multicultural Development: Urban Administrative Initiatives and Cultural Integration of Ethnic Minorities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A B Berson

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available London is among most culturally diverse cities in Europe and in the world. This paper will investigate ethnic cultural integration of immigrants within the city's social space. Firstly the paper explores multi-cultural political inclusion strategies of London administration, municipal service provision and policy and cultural integration programs both on the city level and locally in London boroughs. Secondly this paper raises the question of the initiatives of ethnic minorities, the issue of ghettoisation and linguistic segregation of the city and analyzes the impact of such integration on social city space. The paper also analyses the preparation to Olympic Games 2012 in London as they are presented as cultural cohesion element.

  5. In silico toxicology models and databases as FDA Critical Path Initiative toolkits.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valerio, Luis G

    2011-03-01

    In silico toxicology methods are practical, evidence-based and high throughput, with varying accuracy. In silico approaches are of keen interest, not only to scientists in the private sector and to academic researchers worldwide, but also to the public. They are being increasingly evaluated and applied by regulators. Although there are foreseeable beneficial aspects--including maximising use of prior test data and the potential for minimising animal use for future toxicity testing--the primary use of in silico toxicology methods in the pharmaceutical sciences are as decision support information. It is possible for in silico toxicology methods to complement and strengthen the evidence for certain regulatory review processes, and to enhance risk management by supporting a more informed decision regarding priority setting for additional toxicological testing in research and product development. There are also several challenges with these continually evolving methods which clearly must be considered. This mini-review describes in silico methods that have been researched as Critical Path Initiative toolkits for predicting toxicities early in drug development based on prior knowledge derived from preclinical and clinical data at the US Food and Drug Administration, Center for Drug Evaluation and Research.

  6. Evaluation of local stress for stress corrosion crack initiation by three-dimensional polycrystal model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kamaya, Masayuki; Kitamura, Takayuki

    2006-01-01

    In order to understand the initiation behavior of microstructurally small cracks in a stress corrosion cracking condition, it is important to know the tensile normal stress acting on the grain boundary (normal G.B. stress). The local stress in a polycrystalline body is greatly influenced by deformation constraint which is caused by anisotropic and/or inhomogeneous property of each grain. In present study, the local normal G.B. stress on bi- and tri-crystal bodies and a three-dimensional polycrystalline body consisting of 100 grains were evaluated by the finite element method under a remote uniform tensile stress condition. The polycrystalline body was generated by using a Monte Carlo procedure and random orientations were assigned to each grain. It was revealed that the local normal G.B. stress on the polycrystalline body is inhomogeneous under uniform applied stress. The stress tends to be large near the triple points due to the deformation constraint caused by adjacent grains, even though the grain boundary inclination to the load axis has large influence. It was also shown that particular high stress was not observed at corners of the polycrystalline body. (author)

  7. Installation and initial operation of the Suss Advanced Lithography Model 4 X-ray Stepper

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wells, G.M.; Wallace, J.P.; Brodsky, E.L.; Leonard, Q.J.; Reilly, M.T.; Anderson, P.D.; Lee, W.K.; Cerrina, F.; Simon, K.

    1996-01-01

    A Suss Advanced Lithography X-ray Stepper designed as a production tool for high throughput in the sub-quarter-micron device range has been installed and is being commissioned at the University of Wisconsin close-quote s Center for X-ray Lithography (CXrL). Illumination for the stepper is provided by a scanning beamline designed and constructed at CXrL. The beamline optical components are a gold-coated plane mirror, a 1-micron-thick silicon carbide window, and a 25-micron-thick beryllium exit window. Beamline features include synchronized scanning of the mirror and exit window, variable scan velocity to compensate for reflectivity changes as a function of incident angle, and a horizontal oscillation of the beryllium window during vertical scanning to average the effects of nonuniform beryllium window transmission. A helium purged snout transports the x-rays from the beamline exit window, to the exposure plane in the stepper. This snout is retractable to allow for the loading and unloading of masks into the stepper. The motions of the mirror, exit window, and snout are computer controlled by a LABVIEW program that communicates with the stepper control software. The design of the beamline and initial operating experiences with the beamline and stepper will be discussed. copyright 1996 American Institute of Physics

  8. Modifying the Soil and Water Assessment Tool to simulate cropland carbon flux: Model development and initial evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Xuesong; Izaurralde, R. César; Arnold, Jeffrey G.; Williams, Jimmy R.; Srinivasan, Raghavan

    2013-01-01

    Climate change is one of the most compelling modern issues and has important implications for almost every aspect of natural and human systems. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model has been applied worldwide to support sustainable land and water management in a changing climate. However, the inadequacies of the existing carbon algorithm in SWAT limit its application in assessing impacts of human activities on CO 2 emission, one important source of greenhouse gasses (GHGs) that traps heat in the earth system and results in global warming. In this research, we incorporate a revised version of the CENTURY carbon model into SWAT to describe dynamics of soil organic matter (SOM)-residue and simulate land–atmosphere carbon exchange. We test this new SWAT-C model with daily eddy covariance (EC) observations of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and evapotranspiration (ET) and annual crop yield at six sites across the U.S. Midwest. Results show that SWAT-C simulates well multi-year average NEE and ET across the spatially distributed sites and capture the majority of temporal variation of these two variables at a daily time scale at each site. Our analyses also reveal that performance of SWAT-C is influenced by multiple factors, such as crop management practices (irrigated vs. rainfed), completeness and accuracy of input data, crop species, and initialization of state variables. Overall, the new SWAT-C demonstrates favorable performance for simulating land–atmosphere carbon exchange across agricultural sites with different soils, climate, and management practices. SWAT-C is expected to serve as a useful tool for including carbon flux into consideration in sustainable watershed management under a changing climate. We also note that extensive assessment of SWAT-C with field observations is required for further improving the model and understanding potential uncertainties of applying it across large regions with complex landscapes. - Highlights: • Expanding the SWAT

  9. Modifying the Soil and Water Assessment Tool to simulate cropland carbon flux: Model development and initial evaluation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, Xuesong; Izaurralde, R. César [Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20740 (United States); Arnold, Jeffrey G. [Grassland, Soil and Water Research Laboratory USDA-ARS, Temple, TX 76502 (United States); Williams, Jimmy R. [Blackland Research and Extension Center, AgriLIFE Research, 720 E. Blackland Road, Temple, TX 76502 (United States); Srinivasan, Raghavan [Spatial Sciences Laboratory in the Department of Ecosystem Science and Management, Texas A and M University, College Stations, TX 77845 (United States)

    2013-10-01

    Climate change is one of the most compelling modern issues and has important implications for almost every aspect of natural and human systems. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model has been applied worldwide to support sustainable land and water management in a changing climate. However, the inadequacies of the existing carbon algorithm in SWAT limit its application in assessing impacts of human activities on CO{sub 2} emission, one important source of greenhouse gasses (GHGs) that traps heat in the earth system and results in global warming. In this research, we incorporate a revised version of the CENTURY carbon model into SWAT to describe dynamics of soil organic matter (SOM)-residue and simulate land–atmosphere carbon exchange. We test this new SWAT-C model with daily eddy covariance (EC) observations of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and evapotranspiration (ET) and annual crop yield at six sites across the U.S. Midwest. Results show that SWAT-C simulates well multi-year average NEE and ET across the spatially distributed sites and capture the majority of temporal variation of these two variables at a daily time scale at each site. Our analyses also reveal that performance of SWAT-C is influenced by multiple factors, such as crop management practices (irrigated vs. rainfed), completeness and accuracy of input data, crop species, and initialization of state variables. Overall, the new SWAT-C demonstrates favorable performance for simulating land–atmosphere carbon exchange across agricultural sites with different soils, climate, and management practices. SWAT-C is expected to serve as a useful tool for including carbon flux into consideration in sustainable watershed management under a changing climate. We also note that extensive assessment of SWAT-C with field observations is required for further improving the model and understanding potential uncertainties of applying it across large regions with complex landscapes. - Highlights: • Expanding the

  10. Modeling the self-assembly of silica-templated nanoparticles in the initial stages of zeolite formation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chien, Szu-Chia; Auerbach, Scott M; Monson, Peter A

    2015-05-05

    The reaction ensemble Monte Carlo method was used to model the self-assembly and structure of silica nanoparticles found in the initial stages of the clear-solution synthesis of the silicalite-1 zeolite. Such nanoparticles, which comprise both silica and organic structure-directing agents (OSDAs), are believed to play a crucial role in the formation of silica nanoporous materials, yet very limited atomic-level structural information is available for these nanoparticles. We have modeled silica monomers as flexible tetrahedra with spring constants fitted in previous work to silica bulk moduli and OSDAs as spheres attracted to anionic silica monomers. We have studied one-step and two-step formation mechanisms, the latter involving the initial association of silica species and OSDAs driven by physical solution forces, followed by silica condensation/hydrolysis reactions simulated with reaction ensemble Monte Carlo. The two-step process with preassociation was found to be crucial for generating nearly spherical nanoparticles; otherwise, without preassociation they exhibited jagged, ramified structures. The two-step nanoparticles were found to exhibit a core-shell structure with mostly silica in the core surrounded by a diffuse shell of OSDAs, in agreement with SANS and SAXS data. The Qn distribution, quantifying silicon atoms bound to n bridging oxygens, found in the simulated nanoparticles is in broad agreement with (29)Si solid-state NMR data on smaller, 2 nm nanoparticle populations. Ring-size distributions from the simulated nanoparticles show that five-membered rings are prevalent when considering OSDA/silica mole fractions (∼0.2) that lead to silicalite-1, in agreement with a previous IR and modeling study. Nanoparticles simulated with higher OSDA concentrations show ring-size distributions shifted to smaller rings, with three-membered silica rings dominating at an OSDA/silica mole fraction of 0.8. Our simulations show no evidence of long-range silicalite-1

  11. Observations and model calculations of B747 engine exhaust products at cruise altitude and inferred initial OH emissions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tremmel, H.G.; Schlager, H.; Konopka, P.; Schulte, P. [Deutsche Forschungsanstalt fuer Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR), Wessling (Germany). Inst. fuer Physik der Atmosphaere; Arnold, F.; Klemm, M.; Droste-Franke, B. [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Kernphysik, Heidelberg (Germany)

    1997-06-01

    NO{sub y} (NO, HNO{sub 2} and HNO{sub 3}) exhaust emissions in the near-field plume of two B747 jet airliners cruising in the upper troposphere were measured in situ using the DLR Falcon research aircraft. In addition CO{sub 2} was measured providing exhaust plume dilution rates for the species. The observations were used to estimate the initial OH concentration and NO{sub 2}/NO{sub x} ratio at the engine exit and the combustor exit by back calculations using a chemistry box model. From the two different plume events, and using two different model simulation modes in each case, we inferred OH emission indices EI(OH) = 0.32-0.39 g/kg fuel (OH{sub 0} = 9-14.4 ppmv) and (NO{sub 2}/NO{sub x}){sub 0} = 0.12-0.17. Furthermore, our results indicate that the chemistry of the exhaust species during the short period between the combustion chamber exit and the engine exit must be considered, because OH is already consumed to a great extent in this engine section, due to conversion to HNO{sub 2} and HNO{sub 3}. For the engines discussed here, the modeled OH concentration between combustor exit und engine exit decreases by a factor of about 350, leading to OH concentrations of 1-2.10{sup 12} molec/cm{sup 3} at the engine exit. (orig.) 45 refs.

  12. Challenges in Modeling Debris-Flow Initiation during the Exceptional September 2013 Northern Colorado Front Range Rainstorm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baum, R. L.; Coe, J. A.; Godt, J.; Kean, J. W.

    2014-12-01

    Heavy rainfall during 9 - 13 September 2013 induced about 1100 debris flows in the foothills and mountains of the northern Colorado Front Range. Eye-witness accounts and fire-department records put the times of greatest landslide activity during the times of heaviest rainfall on September 12 - 13. Antecedent soil moisture was relatively low, particularly at elevations below 2250 m where many of the debris flows occurred, based on 45 - 125 mm of summer precipitation and absence of rainfall for about 2 weeks before the storm. Mapping from post-event imagery and field observations indicated that most debris flows initiated as small, shallow landslides. These landslides typically formed in colluvium that consisted of angular clasts in a sandy or silty matrix, depending on the nature of the parent bedrock. Weathered bedrock was partially exposed in the basal surfaces of many of the shallow source areas at depths ranging from 0.2 to 5 m, and source areas commonly occupied less than 500 m2. Although 49% of the source areas occurred in swales and 3 % in channels, where convergent flow might have contributed to pore-pressure build up during the rainfall, 48% of the source areas occurred on open slopes. Upslope contributing areas of most landslides (58%) were small (physical-properties variability. The low-moisture initial conditions require consideration of unsaturated zone effects. Ongoing fieldwork and computational modeling are aimed at addressing these challenges related to initiation of the September 2013 debris flows.

  13. LOX-related collagen crosslink changes act as an initiator of bone fragility in a ZDF rats model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiao, Xun; Ren, Jie; Chen, Jun; Liu, Zhaohui; Tian, Ye; Nabar, Neel R; Wang, Min; Hao, Liang

    2018-01-01

    Diabetes mellitus type 2 (DM2) results in bone abnormalities that manifest as increased bone fragility. Bone consists of two phases, the mineral phase and the matrix phase, and disorders in both are seen in DM2. However, the phase in which DM2 mediated bone fragility is initiated is still unknown. In this study, a male Zucker diabetic fatty (fa/fa) (ZDF) rat model was used to investigate the underlying mechanism initiating DM2 mediated bone fragility. The fracture surface morphology, pre- and post-yield bone mechanical behavior, insoluble collagen volume, lysyl oxidase family (LOX) enzyme levels and correlation analysis was performed to determine the relationship between insoluble collagen and post-yield behavior. Four weeks after the induction of diabetes, insoluble collagen was decreased in only the matrix phase in diabetic rats. Consistently, mechanical testing of the bone showed changes only in post-yield behavior. Diabetic rats also had decreased levels of enzymes involved in insoluble collagen formation (LOX and LOXL1 families). Correlation analysis demonstrated that insoluble collagen was a positive regressor of post-yield displacement (R = 0.894, P < 0.001) and post-yield energy (R = 0.918, P < 0.001). Together, these findings suggest that bone fragility in DM2 is initiated in the matrix phase and that the LOX family may play a critical part in the pathogenesis of DM2 mediated bone fragility. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Roles of different initial Maillard intermediates and pathways in meat flavor formation for cysteine-xylose-glycine model reaction systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hou, Li; Xie, Jianchun; Zhao, Jian; Zhao, Mengyao; Fan, Mengdie; Xiao, Qunfei; Liang, Jingjing; Chen, Feng

    2017-10-01

    To explore initial Maillard reaction pathways and mechanisms for maximal formation of meaty flavors in heated cysteine-xylose-glycine systems, model reactions with synthesized initial Maillard intermediates, Gly-Amadori, TTCA (2-threityl-thiazolidine-4-carboxylic acids) and Cys-Amadori, were investigated. Relative relativities were characterized by spectrophotometrically monitoring the development of colorless degradation intermediates and browning reaction products. Aroma compounds formed were determined by solid-phase microextraction combined with GC-MS and GC-olfactometry. Gly-Amadori showed the fastest reaction followed by Cys-Amadori then TTCA. Free glycine accelerated reaction of TTCA, whereas cysteine inhibited that of Gly-Amadori due to association forming relatively stable thiazolidines. Cys-Amadori/Gly had the highest reactivity in development of both meaty flavors and brown products. TTCA/Gly favored yielding meaty flavors, whereas Gly-Amadori/Cys favored generation of brown products. Conclusively, initial formation of TTCA and pathway involving TTCA with glycine were more applicable to efficiently produce processed-meat flavorings in a cysteine-xylose-glycine system. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Modifying the Soil and Water Assessment Tool to simulate cropland carbon flux: model development and initial evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xuesong; Izaurralde, R César; Arnold, Jeffrey G; Williams, Jimmy R; Srinivasan, Raghavan

    2013-10-01

    Climate change is one of the most compelling modern issues and has important implications for almost every aspect of natural and human systems. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model has been applied worldwide to support sustainable land and water management in a changing climate. However, the inadequacies of the existing carbon algorithm in SWAT limit its application in assessing impacts of human activities on CO2 emission, one important source of greenhouse gasses (GHGs) that traps heat in the earth system and results in global warming. In this research, we incorporate a revised version of the CENTURY carbon model into SWAT to describe dynamics of soil organic matter (SOM)-residue and simulate land-atmosphere carbon exchange. We test this new SWAT-C model with daily eddy covariance (EC) observations of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and evapotranspiration (ET) and annual crop yield at six sites across the U.S. Midwest. Results show that SWAT-C simulates well multi-year average NEE and ET across the spatially distributed sites and capture the majority of temporal variation of these two variables at a daily time scale at each site. Our analyses also reveal that performance of SWAT-C is influenced by multiple factors, such as crop management practices (irrigated vs. rainfed), completeness and accuracy of input data, crop species, and initialization of state variables. Overall, the new SWAT-C demonstrates favorable performance for simulating land-atmosphere carbon exchange across agricultural sites with different soils, climate, and management practices. SWAT-C is expected to serve as a useful tool for including carbon flux into consideration in sustainable watershed management under a changing climate. We also note that extensive assessment of SWAT-C with field observations is required for further improving the model and understanding potential uncertainties of applying it across large regions with complex landscapes. © 2013.

  16. The social paediatrics initiative: a RICHER model of primary health care for at risk children and their families

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wong Sabrina T

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The Responsive Interdisciplinary Child-Community Health Education and Research (RICHER initiative is an intersectoral and interdisciplinary community outreach primary health care (PHC model. It is being undertaken in partnership with community based organizations in order to address identified gaps in the continuum of health services delivery for ‘at risk’ children and their families. As part of a larger study, this paper reports on whether the RICHER initiative is associated with increased: 1 access to health care for children and families with multiple forms of disadvantage and 2 patient-reported empowerment. This study provides the first examination of a model of delivering PHC, using a Social Paediatrics approach. Methods This was a mixed-methods study, using quantitative and qualitative approaches; it was undertaken in partnership with the community, both organizations and individual providers. Descriptive statistics, including logistic regression of patient survey data (n=86 and thematic analyses of patient interview data (n=7 were analyzed to examine the association between patient experiences with the RICHER initiative and parent-reported empowerment. Results Respondents found communication with the provider clear, that the provider explained any test results in a way they could understand, and that the provider was compassionate and respectful. Analysis of the survey and in-depth interview data provide evidence that interpersonal communication, particularly the provider’s interpersonal style (e.g., being treated as an equal, was very important. Even after controlling for parents’ education and ethnicity, the provider’s interpersonal style remained positively associated with parent-reported empowerment (p Conclusions This model of PHC delivery is unique in its purposeful and required partnerships between health care providers and community members. This study provides beginning evidence that RICHER can

  17. [Emotional stress as a clinical model to study the pathogenesis of the initial phase of the general adaptation syndrome].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anikhovskaya, I A; Dvoenosov, V G; Zhdanov, R I; Koubatiev, A A; Mayskiy, I A; Markelova, M M; Meshkov, M V; Oparina, O N; Salakhov, I M; Yakovlev, M Yu

    2015-01-01

    General adaptation syndrome (GAS), the basis of the development of which is stress phenomenon, is an essential component of the pathogenesis of many diseases and syndromes. However, the patho genesis of GAS hitherto is considered exclusively from the endocrinological viewpoint. This relates primarily to the initial phase of the GAS, a clinical model for the study of which may be psycho-emotional stress (PES), which we studied using three groups of volunteers. The first one consists of 25 students who were waiting for unaccustomed physical activity (17 men) and play debut on the stage (8 women). The second group consists of 48 children (2-14 years) who expected for "planned" surgery. The third group of volunteers is made up of 80 students (41 women and 39 men) during the first exam. The concentration of cortisol, endotoxin (ET), the activity of antiendotoxin immunity (AEI) and the haemostatic system parameters were determined in the blood serum of volunteers in various combinations. We found laboratory evidence for PES at 92% of students of the first group, 58% of children of the second one and in 21% of students of the third group of volunteers (mostly women). The concentration of ET increased at 13 (52%) volunteers of the first group with a significant increase of average indicators in the whole group (from 0.84 ± 0.06 to 1.19 ± 0.04 EU/ml). At children of the second group, the average concentration of ET increased even more significantly (from 0.42 ± 0.02 to 1.63 ± 0.11 EU/ml), which was accompanied by the activation of the hemostasis system. A degree of the activation was directly dependent on the level of ET in the general circulation and on an activity of AEI. Examination stress in the third group of volunteers is accompanied by activation of plasma hemostasis (increased initial thrombosis rate and reduced the time it starts, lag-period) in 26% of female students and 15% of male students. We suggest that it is possible to use the PES as a clinical model

  18. Inhibition of TRF1 Telomere Protein Impairs Tumor Initiation and Progression in Glioblastoma Mouse Models and Patient-Derived Xenografts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bejarano, Leire; Schuhmacher, Alberto J; Méndez, Marinela; Megías, Diego; Blanco-Aparicio, Carmen; Martínez, Sonia; Pastor, Joaquín; Squatrito, Massimo; Blasco, Maria A

    2017-11-13

    Glioblastoma multiforme (GBM) is a deadly and common brain tumor. Poor prognosis is linked to high proliferation and cell heterogeneity, including glioma stem cells (GSCs). Telomere genes are frequently mutated. The telomere binding protein TRF1 is essential for telomere protection, and for adult and pluripotent stem cells. Here, we find TRF1 upregulation in mouse and human GBM. Brain-specific Trf1 genetic deletion in GBM mouse models inhibited GBM initiation and progression, increasing survival. Trf1 deletion increased telomeric DNA damage and reduced proliferation and stemness. TRF1 chemical inhibitors mimicked these effects in human GBM cells and also blocked tumor sphere formation and tumor growth in xenografts from patient-derived primary GSCs. Thus, targeting telomeres throughout TRF1 inhibition is an effective therapeutic strategy for GBM. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Ventilation Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang, H.

    1999-01-01

    The purpose of this analysis and model report (AMR) for the Ventilation Model is to analyze the effects of pre-closure continuous ventilation in the Engineered Barrier System (EBS) emplacement drifts and provide heat removal data to support EBS design. It will also provide input data (initial conditions, and time varying boundary conditions) for the EBS post-closure performance assessment and the EBS Water Distribution and Removal Process Model. The objective of the analysis is to develop, describe, and apply calculation methods and models that can be used to predict thermal conditions within emplacement drifts under forced ventilation during the pre-closure period. The scope of this analysis includes: (1) Provide a general description of effects and heat transfer process of emplacement drift ventilation. (2) Develop a modeling approach to simulate the impacts of pre-closure ventilation on the thermal conditions in emplacement drifts. (3) Identify and document inputs to be used for modeling emplacement ventilation. (4) Perform calculations of temperatures and heat removal in the emplacement drift. (5) Address general considerations of the effect of water/moisture removal by ventilation on the repository thermal conditions. The numerical modeling in this document will be limited to heat-only modeling and calculations. Only a preliminary assessment of the heat/moisture ventilation effects and modeling method will be performed in this revision. Modeling of moisture effects on heat removal and emplacement drift temperature may be performed in the future

  20. The initial dispersal and radiative forcing of a Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude super volcano: a model study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Timmreck

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available The chemistry climate model MAECHAM4/ CHEM with interactive and prognostic volcanic aerosol and ozone was used to study the initial dispersal and radiative forcing of a possible Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude super eruption. Tropospheric climate anomalies are not analysed since sea surface temperatures are kept fixed. Our experiments show that the global dispersal of a super eruption located at Yellowstone, Wy. is strongly dependent on the season of the eruption. In Northern Hemisphere summer the volcanic cloud is transported westward and preferentially southward, while in Northern Hemisphere winter the cloud is transported eastward and more northward compared to the summer case. Aerosol induced heating leads to a more global spreading with a pronounced cross equatorial transport. For a summer eruption aerosol is transported much further to the Southern Hemisphere than for a winter eruption. In contrast to Pinatubo case studies, strong cooling tendencies appear with maximum peak values of less than −1.6 K/day three months after the eruption in the upper tropical stratosphere. This strong cooling effect weakens with decreasing aerosol density over time and initially prevents the aerosol laden air from further active rising. All-sky net radiative flux changes of less than −32 W/m2 at the surface are about a factor of 6 larger than for the Pinatubo eruption. Large positive flux anomalies of more than 16 W/m2 are found in the first months in the tropics and sub tropics. These strong forcings call for a fully coupled ocean/atmosphere/chemistry model to study climate sensitivity to such a super-eruption.

  1. Model and experiences of initiating collaboration with traditional healers in validation of ethnomedicines for HIV/AIDS in Namibia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chinsembu Kazhila C

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Many people with Human Immunodeficiency Virus/Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome (HIV/AIDS in Namibia have access to antiretroviral drugs but some still use traditional medicines to treat opportunistic infections and offset side-effects from antiretroviral medication. Namibia has a rich biodiversity of indigenous plants that could contain novel anti-HIV agents. However, such medicinal plants have not been identified and properly documented. Various ethnomedicines used to treat HIV/AIDS opportunistic infections have not been scientifically validated for safety and efficacy. These limitations are mostly attributable to the lack of collaboration between biomedical scientists and traditional healers. This paper presents a five-step contextual model for initiating collaboration with Namibian traditional healers in order that candidate plants that may contain novel anti-HIV agents are identified, and traditional medicines used to treat HIV/AIDS opportunistic infections are subjected to scientific validation. The model includes key structures and processes used to initiate collaboration with traditional healers in Namibia; namely, the National Biosciences Forum, a steering committee with the University of Namibia (UNAM as the focal point, a study tour to Zambia and South Africa where other collaborative frameworks were examined, commemorations of the African Traditional Medicine Day (ATMD, and consultations with stakeholders in north-eastern Namibia. Experiences from these structures and processes are discussed. All traditional healers in north-eastern Namibia were willing to collaborate with UNAM in order that their traditional medicines could be subjected to scientific validation. The current study provides a framework for future collaboration with traditional healers and the selection of candidate anti-HIV medicinal plants and ethnomedicines for scientific testing in Namibia.

  2. Model of spur processes in aqueous radiation chemistry including spur overlap and a novel initial hydrated electron distribution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Short, D.R.

    1980-01-01

    Results are presented from computer calculations based upon an improved diffusion-kinetic model of the spur which includes a novel initial distribution for the hydrated electron and an approximate mathematical treatment of the overlap of spurs in three dimensions. Experimental data for the decay of the hydrated electron and hydroxyl radical before one in electron-pulse-irradated, solute-free and air-free water are fit wihtin experimental uncertainty by adjustment of the initial spatial distributions of spur intermediates and the average energy deposited in the spur. Using the same values of these parameters, the hydrated electron decay is computed for times from 1 ps 10 μs after the radiatio pulse. The results of such calcuations for various conditions of pulse dose and concentrations of scavengers of individual primary chemical species in the spur are compared with corresponding experimental data obtained predominantly from water and aqueous solutions irradiated with 10 to 15 MeV electron pulses. Very good agreement between calculated and experimental hydrated electron decay in pure water is observed for the entire time range studied when a pulse dose of approximately 7900 rads is modeled, but the calcuated and experimental curves are observed to deviate for times greater than 10 ns nanoseconds when low pulse doses and low scavenger concentrations are considered. It is shown that this deviation is experimental and calculated hydrated electron decay cannot be explained by assuming the presence of a hydrated electron scavenging impurity nor by employing a distribution of nearest neighbor interspur distances to refine the overlap approximation

  3. The Father Friendly Initiative within Families: Using a logic model to develop program theory for a father support program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gervais, Christine; de Montigny, Francine; Lacharité, Carl; Dubeau, Diane

    2015-10-01

    The transition to fatherhood, with its numerous challenges, has been well documented. Likewise, fathers' relationships with health and social services have also begun to be explored. Yet despite the problems fathers experience in interactions with healthcare services, few programs have been developed for them. To explain this, some authors point to the difficulty practitioners encounter in developing and structuring the theory of programs they are trying to create to promote and support father involvement (Savaya, R., & Waysman, M. (2005). Administration in Social Work, 29(2), 85), even when such theory is key to a program's effectiveness (Chen, H.-T. (2005). Practical program evaluation. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage Publications). The objective of the present paper is to present a tool, the logic model, to bridge this gap and to equip practitioners for structuring program theory. This paper addresses two questions: (1) What would be a useful instrument for structuring the development of program theory in interventions for fathers? (2) How would the concepts of a father involvement program best be organized? The case of the Father Friendly Initiative within Families (FFIF) program is used to present and illustrate six simple steps for developing a logic model that are based on program theory and demonstrate its relevance. Crown Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. How will precipitation change in extratropical cyclones as the planet warms? Insights from a large initial condition climate model ensemble

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yettella, Vineel; Kay, Jennifer E.

    2017-09-01

    The extratropical precipitation response to global warming is investigated within a 30-member initial condition climate model ensemble. As in observations, modeled cyclonic precipitation contributes a large fraction of extratropical precipitation, especially over the ocean and in the winter hemisphere. When compared to present day, the ensemble projects increased cyclone-associated precipitation under twenty-first century business-as-usual greenhouse gas forcing. While the cyclone-associated precipitation response is weaker in the near-future (2016-2035) than in the far-future (2081-2100), both future periods have similar patterns of response. Though cyclone frequency changes are important regionally, most of the increased cyclone-associated precipitation results from increased within-cyclone precipitation. Consistent with this result, cyclone-centric composites show statistically significant precipitation increases in all cyclone sectors. Decomposition into thermodynamic (mean cyclone water vapor path) and dynamic (mean cyclone wind speed) contributions shows that thermodynamics explains 92 and 95% of the near-future and far-future within-cyclone precipitation increases respectively. Surprisingly, the influence of dynamics on future cyclonic precipitation changes is negligible. In addition, the forced response exceeds internal variability in both future time periods. Overall, this work suggests that future cyclonic precipitation changes will result primarily from increased moisture availability in a warmer world, with secondary contributions from changes in cyclone frequency and cyclone dynamics.

  5. Technical Report Series on Global Modeling and Data Assimilation, Volume 43. MERRA-2; Initial Evaluation of the Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koster, Randal D. (Editor); Bosilovich, Michael G.; Akella, Santha; Lawrence, Coy; Cullather, Richard; Draper, Clara; Gelaro, Ronald; Kovach, Robin; Liu, Qing; Molod, Andrea; hide

    2015-01-01

    The years since the introduction of MERRA have seen numerous advances in the GEOS-5 Data Assimilation System as well as a substantial decrease in the number of observations that can be assimilated into the MERRA system. To allow continued data processing into the future, and to take advantage of several important innovations that could improve system performance, a decision was made to produce MERRA-2, an updated retrospective analysis of the full modern satellite era. One of the many advances in MERRA-2 is a constraint on the global dry mass balance; this allows the global changes in water by the analysis increment to be near zero, thereby minimizing abrupt global interannual variations due to changes in the observing system. In addition, MERRA-2 includes the assimilation of interactive aerosols into the system, a feature of the Earth system absent from previous reanalyses. Also, in an effort to improve land surface hydrology, observations-corrected precipitation forcing is used instead of model-generated precipitation. Overall, MERRA-2 takes advantage of numerous updates to the global modeling and data assimilation system. In this document, we summarize an initial evaluation of the climate in MERRA-2, from the surface to the stratosphere and from the tropics to the poles. Strengths and weaknesses of the MERRA-2 climate are accordingly emphasized.

  6. Virginia flow-ecology modeling results—An initial assessment of flow reduction effects on aquatic biota

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rapp, Jennifer L.; Reilly, Pamela A.

    2017-11-14

    BackgroundThe U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Virginia Department of Environmental Quality (DEQ), reviewed a previously compiled set of linear regression models to assess their utility in defining the response of the aquatic biological community to streamflow depletion.As part of the 2012 Virginia Healthy Watersheds Initiative (HWI) study conducted by Tetra Tech, Inc., for the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and Virginia DEQ, a database with computed values of 72 hydrologic metrics, or indicators of hydrologic alteration (IHA), 37 fish metrics, and 64 benthic invertebrate metrics was compiled and quality assured. Hydrologic alteration was represented by simulation of streamflow record for a pre-water-withdrawal condition (baseline) without dams or developed land, compared to the simulated recent-flow condition (2008 withdrawal simulation) including dams and altered landscape to calculate a percent alteration of flow. Biological samples representing the existing populations represent a range of alteration in the biological community today.For this study, all 72 IHA metrics, which included more than 7,272 linear regression models, were considered. This extensive dataset provided the opportunity for hypothesis testing and prioritization of flow-ecology relations that have the potential to explain the effect(s) of hydrologic alteration on biological metrics in Virginia streams.

  7. Using multi-theory model to predict initiation and sustenance of small portion size consumption among college students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharma, Manoj; Catalano, Hannah Priest; Nahar, Vinayak K; Lingam, Vimala; Johnson, Paul; Ford, M Allison

    2016-01-01

    Consumption of large portion sizes is contributing to overweight and obesity.College students are a vulnerable group in this regard. The purpose of this study was to use multi-theory model (MTM) to predict initiation and sustenance of small portion size consumption in college students. A total of 135 students at a large Southern US University completed a 35-item valid (face, content, and construct) and reliable (internally consistent) survey electronically in a cross-sectional design. The main outcome measures were intention to start eating small portion sizes and continuing to eat small portion sizes. Only those students who ate large portion sizes during the past 24 hours were included. Step wise multiple regression showed that initiation of small portion size consumption was explained by participatory dialogue (advantages outweighing disadvantages), behavioral confidence, age, and gender (adjusted R(2) = 0.37, P emotional transformation, changes in social environment, and race were the significant predictors (adjusted R(2) = 0.20, P < 0.001). Whites were less likely to sustain small portion size change than other races (β = -0.269, 95% CI = -0.97 - -0.26). Based on this study's findings, MTM appears to be a robust theoretical framework for predicting small portion size consumption behavior change. Interventions in this regard need to be designed.

  8. Fatigue crack initiation in nickel-based superalloys studied by microstructure-based FE modeling and scanning electron microscopy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fried M.

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In this work stage I crack initiation in polycrystalline nickel-based superalloys is investigated by analyzing anisotropic mechanical properties, local stress concentrations and plastic deformation on the microstructural length scale. The grain structure in the gauge section of fatigue specimens was characterized by EBSD. Based on the measured data, a microstructure-based FE model could be established to simulate the strain and stress distribution in the specimens during the first loading cycle of a fatigue test. The results were in fairly good agreement with experimentally measured local strains. Furthermore, the onset of plastic deformation was predicted by identifying shear stress maxima in the microstructure, presumably leading to activation of slip systems. Measurement of plastic deformation and observation of slip traces in the respective regions of the microstructure confirmed the predicted slip activity. The close relation between micro-plasticity, formation of slip traces and stage I crack initiation was demonstrated by SEM surface analyses of fatigued specimens and an in-situ fatigue test in a large chamber SEM.

  9. The Depression Initiative. Description of a collaborative care model for depression and of the factors influencing its implementation in the primary care setting in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jong, de F.J.; Steenbergen-Weijenburg, van K.M.; Huijbregts, K.M.L.; Vlasveld, M.C.; Marwijk, van H.W.J.; Beekman, A.T.F.; Feltz - Cornelis, van der C.M.

    2009-01-01

    BACKGROUND: In the Depression Initiative, a promising collaborative care model for depression that was developed in the US was adapted for implementation in the Netherlands. AIM: Description of a collaborative care model for major depressive disorder (MDD) and of the factors influencing its

  10. An initial study on modeling the existing and anticipated fleet of thermal and fast reactors using VENSIM

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brinton, S.; Tokuhiro, A.

    2007-01-01

    The United States current has a fleet of approximately 100 operating LWRs (thermal) supplying about 20% of the electricity demand of the country. Many of these units have or are anticipated, under plant life extension, to be in service a total of some 60 years. At the same time, forecasts on energy demand and deployment strategies of nuclear power plants (NPPs) over the next 100+ years, indicate that all 100 existing NPPs need to be replaced and as many as 100 additional NPPs need to be added to the fleet in order to meet energy demands and stem further accumulation of GHGs from fossil-fuel based energy sources. Conservatively, at least 20 and more likely 50-75 NPPs need to be newly deployed. Further, to make strides toward energy security and sustainability, the Global Nuclear Energy Project (GNEP) is promoting gradual integration of MOX burning LWRs, fuel reprocessing and deployment of fast reactors (FBRs/FRs) into the global fleet. Consideration of MOX, reprocessing and FBRs merit some consideration with respect to uranium ore resources over the time period of interest. In the present study we developed a basic temporal model over the next 30 to 60 years of existing NPPs and new NPPs to be deployed. Initially, we considered four reactor 'categories' over the time period of interest as follows: 1) LWRs (currently operating but) to be decommissioned during the time period, 2) LWRs to be burn MOX fuel during the its operating lifetime, 3) new LWRs to replace decommissioned units and/or added to the fleet and 4) new FRs to replace decommissioned units and/or added to the fleet. The develop the model, we initially used the visual dynamic modeling software, VENSIM. In the study we considered a number of variables such as new NPP (LWRs and FRs) construction rate, decommissioning rate, conversion rate to MOX fueled and overall growth rate of the fleet. We will present results to date on various decommissioning, deployment and electricity demand scenarios relative to

  11. NASA's Carbon Cycle OSSE Initiative - Informing future space-based observing strategies through advanced modeling and data assimilation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ott, L.; Sellers, P. J.; Schimel, D.; Moore, B., III; O'Dell, C.; Crowell, S.; Kawa, S. R.; Pawson, S.; Chatterjee, A.; Baker, D. F.; Schuh, A. E.

    2017-12-01

    Satellite observations of carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) are critically needed to improve understanding of the contemporary carbon budget and carbon-climate feedbacks. Though current carbon observing satellites have provided valuable data in regions not covered by surface in situ measurements, limited sampling of key regions and small but spatially coherent biases have limited the ability to estimate fluxes at the time and space scales needed for improved process-level understanding and informed decision-making. Next generation satellites will improve coverage in data sparse regions, either through use of active remote sensing, a geostationary vantage point, or increased swath width, but all techniques have limitations. The relative strengths and weaknesses of these approaches and their synergism have not previously been examined. To address these needs, a significant subset of the US carbon modeling community has come together with support from NASA to conduct a series of coordinated observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs), with close collaboration in framing the experiments and in analyzing the results. Here, we report on the initial phase of this initiative, which focused on creating realistic, physically consistent synthetic CO2 and CH4 observational datasets for use in inversion and signal detection experiments. These datasets have been created using NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System Model (GEOS) to represent the current state of atmospheric carbon as well as best available estimates of expected flux changes. Scenarios represented include changes in urban emissions, release of permafrost soil carbon, changes in carbon uptake in tropical and mid-latitude forests, changes in the Southern Ocean sink, and changes in both anthropogenic and natural methane emissions. This GEOS carbon `nature run' was sampled by instrument simulators representing the most prominent observing strategies with a focus on consistently representing the impacts of

  12. Evaluation of behaviors of earth and rockfill dams during construction and initial impounding using instrumentation data and numerical modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Rashidi

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available In this study, the behavior of Gavoshan dam was evaluated during construction and the first impounding. A two-dimensional (2D numerical analysis was conducted based on a finite difference method on the largest cross-section of the dam using the results of instrument measurements and back analysis. These evaluations will be completed in the case that back analysis is carried out in order to control the degree of the accuracy and the level of confidence of the measured behavior since each of the measurements could be controlled by comparing it to the result obtained from the numerical model. Following that, by comparing the results of the numerical analysis with the measured values, it is indicated that there is a proper consistency between these two values. Moreover, it was observed that the dam performance was suitable regarding the induced pore water pressure, the pore water pressure ratio ru, settlement, induced stresses, arching degree, and hydraulic fracturing probability during the construction and initial impounding periods. The results demonstrated that the maximum settlement of the core was 238 cm at the end of construction. In the following 6 years after construction (initial impounding and exploitation period, the accumulative settlement of the dam was 270 cm. It is clear that 88% of the total settlement of the dam took place during dam construction. The reason is that the clay core was smashed in the wet side, i.e. the optimum moisture content. Whereas the average curving ratio was 0.64 during dam construction; at the end of the initial impounding, the maximum amount of curving ratio in the upstream was 0.81, and the minimum (critical amount in the downstream was 0.52. It was also concluded that this dam is safe in comparison with the behaviors of other similar dams in the world.

  13. VENTILATION MODEL

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    V. Chipman

    2002-01-01

    The purpose of the Ventilation Model is to simulate the heat transfer processes in and around waste emplacement drifts during periods of forced ventilation. The model evaluates the effects of emplacement drift ventilation on the thermal conditions in the emplacement drifts and surrounding rock mass, and calculates the heat removal by ventilation as a measure of the viability of ventilation to delay the onset of peak repository temperature and reduce its magnitude. The heat removal by ventilation is temporally and spatially dependent, and is expressed as the fraction of heat carried away by the ventilation air compared to the fraction of heat produced by radionuclide decay. One minus the heat removal is called the wall heat fraction, or the remaining amount of heat that is transferred via conduction to the surrounding rock mass. Downstream models, such as the ''Multiscale Thermohydrologic Model'' (BSC 2001), use the wall heat fractions as outputted from the Ventilation Model to initialize their postclosure analyses

  14. A Multi-Model Assessment for the 2006 and 2010 Simulations under the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII) Phase 2 over North America: Part II. Evaluation of Column Variable Predictions Using Satellite Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Within the context of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative phase 2 (AQMEII2) project, this part II paper performs a multi-model assessment of major column abundances of gases, radiation, aerosol, and cloud variables for 2006 and 2010 simulations with three on...

  15. Evaluation of water security in Jordan using a multi-agent, hydroeconomic model: Initial model results from the Jordan Water Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoon, J.; Klassert, C. J. A.; Lachaut, T.; Selby, P. D.; Knox, S.; Gorelick, S.; Rajsekhar, D.; Tilmant, A.; Avisse, N.; Harou, J. J.; Medellin-Azuara, J.; Gawel, E.; Klauer, B.; Mustafa, D.; Talozi, S.; Sigel, K.; Zhang, H.

    2016-12-01

    Our work focuses on development of a multi-agent, hydroeconomic model for water policy evaluation in Jordan. Jordan ranks among the most water-scarce countries in the world, a situation exacerbated due to a recent influx of refugees escaping the ongoing civil war in neighboring Syria. The modular, multi-agent model is used to evaluate interventions for enhancing Jordan's water security, integrating biophysical modules that simulate natural and engineered phenomena with human modules that represent behavior at multiple levels of decision making. The hydrologic modules are developed using spatially-distributed groundwater and surface water models, which are translated into compact simulators for efficient integration into the multi-agent model. For the multi-agent model, we explicitly account for human agency at multiple levels of decision making, with agents representing riparian, management, supplier, and water user groups. Human agents are implemented as autonomous entities in the model that make decisions in relation to one another and in response to hydrologic and socioeconomic conditions. The integrated model is programmed in Python using Pynsim, a generalizable, open-source object-oriented software framework for modeling network-based water resource systems. The modeling time periods include historical (2006-2014) and future (present-2050) time spans. For the historical runs, the model performance is validated against historical data for several observations that reflect the interacting dynamics of both the hydrologic and human components of the system. A historical counterfactual scenario is also constructed to isolate and identify the impacts of the recent Syrian civil war and refugee crisis on Jordan's water system. For the future period, model runs are conducted to evaluate potential supply, demand, and institutional interventions over a wide range of plausible climate and socioeconomic scenarios. In addition, model sensitivity analysis is conducted

  16. Model(ing) Law

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Carlson, Kerstin

    The International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY) was the first and most celebrated of a wave of international criminal tribunals (ICTs) built in the 1990s designed to advance liberalism through international criminal law. Model(ing) Justice examines the case law of the ICTY...

  17. Models and role models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    ten Cate, J.M.

    2015-01-01

    Developing experimental models to understand dental caries has been the theme in our research group. Our first, the pH-cycling model, was developed to investigate the chemical reactions in enamel or dentine, which lead to dental caries. It aimed to leverage our understanding of the fluoride mode of

  18. SEMI-EMPIRICAL WHITE DWARF INITIAL-FINAL MASS RELATIONSHIPS: A THOROUGH ANALYSIS OF SYSTEMATIC UNCERTAINTIES DUE TO STELLAR EVOLUTION MODELS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salaris, Maurizio; Serenelli, Aldo; Weiss, Achim; Miller Bertolami, Marcelo

    2009-01-01

    Using the most recent results about white dwarfs (WDs) in ten open clusters, we revisit semiempirical estimates of the initial-final mass relation (IFMR) in star clusters, with emphasis on the use of stellar evolution models. We discuss the influence of these models on each step of the derivation. One intention of our work is to use consistent sets of calculations both for the isochrones and the WD cooling tracks. The second one is to derive the range of systematic errors arising from stellar evolution theory. This is achieved by using different sources for the stellar models and by varying physical assumptions and input data. We find that systematic errors, including the determination of the cluster age, are dominating the initial mass values, while observational uncertainties influence the final mass primarily. After having determined the systematic errors, the initial-final mass relation allows us finally to draw conclusions about the physics of the stellar models, in particular about convective overshooting.

  19. The Swarm Initial Field Model – a Model of the Earth’s Magnetic Field for 2014 Determined From One Year of Swarm Satellite Constellation Data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Nils; Hulot, Gauthier; Lesur, Vincent

    Almost one year of data from ESA's Swarm constellation mission are used to derive a model of the Earth’s magnetic field and its time variation (secular variation). The model describes contributions from the core and lithosphere as well as large-scale contributions from the magnetosphere (and its......) frame. In addition to the magnetic field observations provided by each of the three Swarm satellites we include the East-west magnetic gradient information provided by the lower Swarm satellite pair, thereby explicitly taking advantage of the constellation aspect of Swarm. We assess the spatial...... and temporal model resolution that can be obtained from one year of Swarm satellite data by comparison with other recent models that also include non-Swarm magnetic observations....

  20. ICT Integration in Nigeria and the Quest for Indigenous Contents: Prospects of the i-CLAP Model Design Initiative

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azi, J. I.; Nkom, A. A.; Schweppe, M.

    2012-10-01

    Advances in Information and Communication Technology (ICT) is transforming the 21st century learning environment, from its traditional face-to-face, structured curriculum, fixed location and teacher-centered nature, into a more flexible and self-directed process. For instance, variously designed and developed instructional multimedia contents and interfaces in forms of (i) productivity, (ii) educational or (iii) gaming software, enable active learning access as mobile or classroom technologies, interactive tutorials, online discussions, internet conferencing and online databases. However, while this article considers these recent developments such as Intellimedia, NEPAD e-School, OLPC and Intel Classmate projects and so on as trendy and groundbreaking. It observes with discontent that the design of their contents and interfaces seem to be targeted at cross-cultural audiences, with very little or no consideration for minorities like Africa. The authors opine therefore that if the challenge of ICT integration towards bridging the digital divides in Africa must be taken very serious, the task transcends merely supplying networked computer hardware to local schools. Digital contents are required that reflect the beauty and riches of Africaís culture and heritage like music, fashion, architecture, arts and crafts. Against which backdrop, the Interactive Child Learning Aid Project (i-CLAP) model was initiated as a potential indigenous resource, for enhancing pre-primary education in Nigeria adapting the ADDIE model structure. The researchers observe that while 'customizationí of ICT applications targeted at local audience is commendable, integrating relevant indigenous contents has the potential to enhance efficacy and consequently raise the motivational level of local learners.

  1. Effective oral favipiravir (T-705 therapy initiated after the onset of clinical disease in a model of arenavirus hemorrhagic Fever.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michelle Mendenhall

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Lassa and Junín viruses are the most prominent members of the Arenaviridae family of viruses that cause viral hemorrhagic fever syndromes Lassa fever and Argentine hemorrhagic fever, respectively. At present, ribavirin is the only antiviral drug indicated for use in treatment of these diseases, but because of its limited efficacy in advanced cases of disease and its toxicity, safer and more effective antivirals are needed.Here, we used a model of acute arenaviral infection in outbred guinea pigs based on challenge with an adapted strain of Pichindé virus (PICV to further preclinical development of T-705 (Favipiravir, a promising broad-spectrum inhibitor of RNA virus infections. The guinea pig-adapted passage 19 PICV was uniformly lethal with an LD(50 of ∼5 plaque-forming units and disease was associated with fever, weight loss, thrombocytopenia, coagulation defects, increases in serum aspartate aminotransferase (AST concentrations, and pantropic viral infection. Favipiravir (300 mg/kg/day, twice daily orally for 14 days was highly effective, as all animals recovered fully from PICV-induced disease even when therapy was initiated one week after virus challenge when animals were already significantly ill with marked fevers and thrombocytopenia. Antiviral activity and reduced disease severity was evidenced by dramatic reductions in peak serum virus titers and AST concentrations in favipiravir-treated animals. Moreover, a sharp decrease in body temperature was observed shortly after the start of treatment. Oral ribavirin was also evaluated, and although effective, the slower rate of recovery may be a sign of the drug's known toxicity.Our findings support further development of favipiravir for the treatment of severe arenaviral infections. The optimization of the experimental favipiravir treatment regimen in the PICV guinea pig model will inform critical future studies in the same species based on challenge with highly pathogenic arenaviruses

  2. A multiscale modelling study of Ni-Cr crack tip initial stage oxidation at different stress intensities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Das, Nishith Kumar; Tirtom, Ismail; Shoji, Tetsuo

    2010-01-01

    In this study, different scale analyses have been performed to understand the very beginning stage of the Ni-Cr(1 1 1) binary alloy surface oxidation mechanism. The finite elements method (FEM) has been applied to find the stress intensity effect on a compact tension (CT) specimen crack tip, and a 2-μm rectangular region has been prepared for the quasi-continuum (QC) model. The displacement load calculated by FEM was applied at the upper and lower boundaries of the QC model. The obtained atomic positions of the deformed crystal structure were considered for quantum chemical molecular dynamics (QCMD) analysis by placing water molecules on the surface. Water molecules dissociate on the top site followed by the quick diffusion of hydrogen atoms on the surface through the hollow sites. Hydrogen is easily transported into the lattice due to its small atomic size. Increases in stress intensity factor (K) act to deform the structure, which augments oxygen penetration and reduces hydrogen diffusion time; as a consequence, changes in K result in an increase of metallic surface oxidation. Oxygen preferentially bonds with chromium to develop a protective passive film on the surface, and the quickly diffused hydrogen is trapped on the metal surface. Hydrogen bonds with the metal by receiving electrons and, therefore, works as an oxidant on the surface and weakens the metal atomic bond at the primary stage. Initially, the oxidized surface forms a strong bond with oxygen, resulting in the breakage of metal-metal bonds. Therefore, this hydrogen action enhances the very early stage surface oxidation.

  3. Initial draft of CSE-UCLA evaluation model based on weighted product in order to optimize digital library services in computer college in Bali

    Science.gov (United States)

    Divayana, D. G. H.; Adiarta, A.; Abadi, I. B. G. S.

    2018-01-01

    The aim of this research was to create initial design of CSE-UCLA evaluation model modified with Weighted Product in evaluating digital library service at Computer College in Bali. The method used in this research was developmental research method and developed by Borg and Gall model design. The results obtained from the research that conducted earlier this month was a rough sketch of Weighted Product based CSE-UCLA evaluation model that the design had been able to provide a general overview of the stages of weighted product based CSE-UCLA evaluation model used in order to optimize the digital library services at the Computer Colleges in Bali.

  4. Initiation of gas-hydrate pockmark in deep-water Nigeria: Geo-mechanical analysis and modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riboulot, V.; Sultan, N.; Imbert, P.; Ker, S.

    2016-01-01

    A review of recent literature shows that two geomorphologically different types of pockmarks, contribute to gas seepage at the seafloor. Type-1 pockmarks are defined as seafloor craters associated to fluid seepage and are the most classical type referred to as ;pockmarks; in the literature. In contrast, Type-2 pockmarks reveal a complex seafloor morphology that may result from the formation/decomposition of gas hydrates in underlying sedimentary layers. Interpretation of very-high-resolution seismic data, sedimentological analyses and geotechnical measurements acquired from the Eastern Niger Submarine Delta reveal that Type-2 pockmarks are associated to the presence at depth of a conical body of massive gas hydrates. Based on acquired data, theoretical analysis and numerical modelling, it was possible to propose a novel geo-mechanical mechanism controlling the irregular seafloor deformations associated to Type-2 pockmark and to show that pockmark shapes and sizes are directly linked to the initial growth and distribution of sub-seafloor gas hydrates. The study illustrates the role of gas hydrates formation in the fracturation, deformation of the subsurface sediment and the formation of Type-2 pockmarks.

  5. An Integrated Computational and Data Environment to Support Multiscale Modeling of Soft Materials for the Materials Genome Initiative

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phelan, Frederick, Jr.; Rosch, Thomas; Jeong, Cheol; Moroz, Brian; Youssef, Sharief

    In this presentation, we describe the development of a computational ``workbench'' whose goal is to provide an integrated computational and data environment to support multiscale modeling of soft materials for the Materials Genome Initiative (MGI). The design has three essential elements: a modular program structure that supports the addition of new functionality through Python scripting and run-time plugins; a hierarchical data structure which enables unified representation of materials at different levels of granularity; finally, integration of the NIST Materials Data Curation System (MDCS) into the environment to support ontology based materials descriptions. The feature of the workbench which we emphasize in this presentation is coarse-graining. Coarse-graining techniques are an essential requirement for the design of soft materials, and are an active area of research across the soft matter community. We illustrate how the approach allows the integration of multiple coarse-graining techniques in a common environment to greater enable development, evaluation and comparison of new algorithms. Moreover, the environment meets the goals of the MGI by enabling automated curation of both upstream and downstream data in materials reference libraries which can be pushed or shared by various means. Present address: Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory Space Technologies and Applied Research Laurel, MD.

  6. A Precision Medicine Initiative for Alzheimer's disease: the road ahead to biomarker-guided integrative disease modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hampel, H; O'Bryant, S E; Durrleman, S; Younesi, E; Rojkova, K; Escott-Price, V; Corvol, J-C; Broich, K; Dubois, B; Lista, S

    2017-04-01

    After intense scientific exploration and more than a decade of failed trials, Alzheimer's disease (AD) remains a fatal global epidemic. A traditional research and drug development paradigm continues to target heterogeneous late-stage clinically phenotyped patients with single 'magic bullet' drugs. Here, we propose that it is time for a paradigm shift towards the implementation of precision medicine (PM) for enhanced risk screening, detection, treatment, and prevention of AD. The overarching structure of how PM for AD can be achieved will be provided through the convergence of breakthrough technological advances, including big data science, systems biology, genomic sequencing, blood-based biomarkers, integrated disease modeling and P4 medicine. It is hypothesized that deconstructing AD into multiple genetic and biological subsets existing within this heterogeneous target population will provide an effective PM strategy for treating individual patients with the specific agent(s) that are likely to work best based on the specific individual biological make-up. The Alzheimer's Precision Medicine Initiative (APMI) is an international collaboration of leading interdisciplinary clinicians and scientists devoted towards the implementation of PM in Neurology, Psychiatry and Neuroscience. It is hypothesized that successful realization of PM in AD and other neurodegenerative diseases will result in breakthrough therapies, such as in oncology, with optimized safety profiles, better responder rates and treatment responses, particularly through biomarker-guided early preclinical disease-stage clinical trials.

  7. Revision Arthroscopic Repair Versus Latarjet Procedure in Patients With Recurrent Instability After Initial Repair Attempt: A Cost-Effectiveness Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Makhni, Eric C; Lamba, Nayan; Swart, Eric; Steinhaus, Michael E; Ahmad, Christopher S; Romeo, Anthony A; Verma, Nikhil N

    2016-09-01

    To compare the cost-effectiveness of arthroscopic revision instability repair and Latarjet procedure in treating patients with recurrent instability after initial arthroscopic instability repair. An expected-value decision analysis of revision arthroscopic instability repair compared with Latarjet procedure for recurrent instability followed by failed repair attempt was modeled. Inputs regarding procedure cost, clinical outcomes, and health utilities were derived from the literature. Compared with revision arthroscopic repair, Latarjet was less expensive ($13,672 v $15,287) with improved clinical outcomes (43.78 v 36.76 quality-adjusted life-years). Both arthroscopic repair and Latarjet were cost-effective compared with nonoperative treatment (incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of 3,082 and 1,141, respectively). Results from sensitivity analyses indicate that under scenarios of high rates of stability postoperatively, along with improved clinical outcome scores, revision arthroscopic repair becomes increasingly cost-effective. Latarjet procedure for failed instability repair is a cost-effective treatment option, with lower costs and improved clinical outcomes compared with revision arthroscopic instability repair. However, surgeons must still incorporate clinical judgment into treatment algorithm formation. Level IV, expected value decision analysis. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  8. The adaptive immune system promotes initiation of prostate carcinogenesis in a human c-Myc transgenic mouse model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melis, Monique H M; Nevedomskaya, Ekaterina; van Burgsteden, Johan; Cioni, Bianca; van Zeeburg, Hester J T; Song, Ji-Ying; Zevenhoven, John; Hawinkels, Lukas J A C; de Visser, Karin E; Bergman, Andries M

    2017-11-07

    Increasing evidence from epidemiological and pathological studies suggests a role of the immune system in the initiation and progression of multiple cancers, including prostate cancer. Reports on the contribution of the adaptive immune system are contradictive, since both suppression and acceleration of disease development have been reported. This study addresses the functional role of lymphocytes in prostate cancer development using a genetically engineered mouse model (GEMM) of human c-Myc driven prostate cancer (Hi-Myc mice) combined with B and T cell deficiency (RAG1 -/- mice). From a pre-cancerous stage on, Hi-Myc mice showed higher accumulation of immune cells in their prostates then wild-type mice, of which macrophages were the most abundant. The onset of invasive adenocarcinoma was delayed in Hi-MycRAG1 -/- compared to Hi-Myc mice and associated with decreased infiltration of leukocytes into the prostate. In addition, lower levels of the cytokines CXCL2, CCL5 and TGF-β1 were detected in Hi-MycRAG1 -/- compared to Hi-Myc mouse prostates. These results from a GEMM of prostate cancer provide new insights into the promoting role of the adaptive immune system in prostate cancer development. Our findings indicate that the endogenous adaptive immune system does not protect against de novo prostate carcinogenesis in Hi-Myc transgenic mice, but rather accelerates the formation of invasive adenocarcinomas. This may have implications for the development of novel treatment strategies.

  9. A new method for determination of most likely landslide initiation points and the evaluation of digital terrain model scale in terrain stability mapping

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Tarolli

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper introduces a new approach for determining the most likely initiation points for landslides from potential instability mapped using a terrain stability model. This approach identifies the location with critical stability index from a terrain stability model on each downslope path from ridge to valley. Any measure of terrain stability may be used with this approach, which here is illustrated using results from SINMAP, and from simply taking slope as an index of potential instability. The relative density of most likely landslide initiation points within and outside mapped landslide scars provides a way to evaluate the effectiveness of a terrain stability measure, even when mapped landslide scars include run out zones, rather than just initiation locations. This relative density was used to evaluate the utility of high resolution terrain data derived from airborne laser altimetry (LIDAR for a small basin located in the Northeastern Region of Italy. Digital Terrain Models were derived from the LIDAR data for a range of grid cell sizes (from 2 to 50 m. We found appreciable differences between the density of most likely landslide initiation points within and outside mapped landslides with ratios as large as three or more with the highest ratios for a digital terrain model grid cell size of 10 m. This leads to two conclusions: (1 The relative density from a most likely landslide initiation point approach is useful for quantifying the effectiveness of a terrain stability map when mapped landslides do not or can not differentiate between initiation, runout, and depositional areas; and (2 in this study area, where landslides occurred in complexes that were sometimes more than 100 m wide, a digital terrain model scale of 10 m is optimal. Digital terrain model scales larger than 10 m result in loss of resolution that degrades the results, while for digital terrain model scales smaller than 10 m the physical processes responsible for triggering

  10. Naive CD8 T-Cells Initiate Spontaneous Autoimmunity to a Sequestered Model Antigen of the Central Nervous System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Na, Shin-Young; Cao, Yi; Toben, Catherine; Nitschke, Lars; Stadelmann, Christine; Gold, Ralf; Schimpl, Anneliese; Hunig, Thomas

    2008-01-01

    In multiple sclerosis, CD8 T-cells are thought play a key pathogenetic role, but mechanistic evidence from rodent models is limited. Here, we have tested the encephalitogenic potential of CD8 T-cells specific for the model antigen ovalbumin (OVA) sequestered in oligodendrocytes as a cytosolic molecule. We show that in these "ODC-OVA" mice, the…

  11. Modeling Applications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McMEEKIN, Thomas A; Ross, Thomas

    1996-12-01

    The concept of predictive microbiology has developed rapidly through the initial phases of experimental design and model development and the subsequent phase of model validation. A fully validated model represents a general rule which may be brought to bear on particular cases. For some microorganism/food combinations, sufficient confidence now exists to indicate substantial benefits to the food industry from use of predictive models. Several types of devices are available to monitor and record environmental conditions (particularly temperature). These "environmental histories" can be interpreted, using predictive models, in terms of microbial proliferation. The current challenge is to provide systems for the collection and interpretation of environmental information which combine ease of use, reliability, and security, providing the industrial user with the ability to make informed and precise decisions regarding the quality and safety of foods. Many specific applications for predictive modeling can be developed from a basis of understanding the inherent qualities of a fully validated model. These include increased precision and confidence in predictions based on accumulation of quantitative data, objective and rapid assessment of the effect of environmental conditions on microbial proliferation, and flexibility in monitoring the relative contribution of component parts of processing, distribution, and storage systems for assurance of shelf life and safety.

  12. A three-dimensional model of error and safety in surgical health care microsystems. Rationale, development and initial testing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Catchpole Ken

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Research estimates of inadvertent harm to patients undergoing modern healthcare demonstrate a serious problem. Much attention has been paid to analysis of the causes of error and harm, but researchers have typically focussed either on human interaction and communication or on systems design, without fully considering the other components. Existing models for analysing harm are principally derived from theory and the analysis of individual incidents, and their practical value is often limited by the assumption that identifying causal factors automatically suggests solutions. We suggest that new models based on observation are required to help analyse healthcare safety problems and evaluate proposed solutions. We propose such a model which is directed at "microsystem" level (Ward and operating theatre, and which frames problems and solutions within three dimensions. Methods We have developed a new, simple, model of safety in healthcare systems, based on analysis of real problems seen in surgical systems, in which influences on risk at the "microsystem" level are described in terms of only 3 dimensions - technology, system and culture. We used definitions of these terms which are similar or identical to those used elsewhere in the safety literature, and utilised a set of formal empirical and deductive processes to derive the model. The "3D" model assumes that new risks arise in an unpredictable stochastic manner, and that the three defined dimensions are interactive, in an unconstrained fashion. We illustrated testing of the model, using analysis of a small number of incidents in a surgical environment for which we had detailed prospective observational data. Results The model appeared to provide useful explanation and categorisation of real events. We made predictions based on the model, which are experimentally verifiable, and propose further work to test and refine it. Conclusion We suggest that, if calibrated by application

  13. B and W model boiler tests: effect of temperature on IGA rate. Initial and post-1878 operating conditions of the model boilers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1986-01-01

    The Babcock and Wilcox (B and W) model boiler operated with 10 ppm weekly injections of NaOH for 41,900 hours (4.8 years). The model boiler operating conditions are given. Tube No. 24 failed by caustic intergranular attack/stress corrosion cracking (IGA/SCC) at the steam-water zone. IGA defect depths on tube 24 is compared at different locations, which also have different temperature conditions. The specific locations are: steam/water zone, drilled baffle plate, and lower tube sheet crevice. In all locations caustic will concentrate (although to different concentration levels). Nevertheless, an effect of temperature on IGA rate can be estimated. The degree of attack relative to the location and environment is shown. SEM fractographs illustrate the completely intergranular failure of Tube 24. A summary of the estimated results is presented. These results show the estimated IGA rate as a function of primary/secondary temperature and estimated caustic concentration. Details of the failure analysis of the model boiler can be found in the final report Destructive Examination of Babcock and Wilcox's Model Boiler for Intergranular Attack (IGA) on Tubes, EPRI S302-6, J.L.; Barna and L.W. Sarver

  14. A model for evaluating the institutional costs and benefits of ICT initiatives in teaching and learning in higher education

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Nicol

    2003-12-01

    Full Text Available Significant investments are being made in the application of new information and communications technologies (ICT to teaching and learning in higher education. However, until recently, there has been little progress in devising an integrated costbenefit model that decision-makers can use to appraise ICT investment options from the wider institutional perspective. This paper describes and illustrates a model that has been developed to enable evaluations of the costs and benefits of the use of ICT. The strengths and limitations of the model are highlighted and discussed

  15. High frequency FEM-based power transformer modeling: Investigation of internal stresses due to network-initiated overvoltages

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bjerkan, E.; Hoeidalen, H.K. [Department of Electrical Power Engineering, NTNU (Norwegian University of Science and Technology), 7491 Trondheim (Norway)

    2007-09-15

    This paper presents a method of how to obtain both terminal and internal high frequency models of power transformers using FEM. The model is established from construction information and the approach implements frequency-dependent phenomena on a physical basis. Eddy current effects are represented accurately even with a relatively coarse mesh by using a frequency-dependent complex permeability representation for the core and windings. The model can be employed in EMTP-like programs for a variety of applications, such as analysis for FRA, internal/terminal stresses and transformer network interaction. Analyses of internal stresses are elucidated in this paper. (author)

  16. Mathematical model of quasi-equilibrium counter-flow processes of rare earth metal separation by solvent extraction when varying the composition of initial raw materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pyartman, A.K.; Puzikov, E.A.

    1994-01-01

    A mathematical model for the description of rare earths (3) distribution, depending on the number of contact steps for quasiequilibrium counter-flow processes of rare earths separation by the method of solvent extraction with varying the composition of initial source material, has been suggested. Algorithm of computer calculation is provided. The mathematical model has been employed to choose the optimal conditions for didymium concentrate separation. 7 refs.; 3 figs.; 1 tab

  17. NASA GISS Climate Change Research Initiative: A Multidisciplinary Vertical Team Model for Improving STEM Education by Using NASA's Unique Capabilities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pearce, M. D.

    2017-12-01

    CCRI is a year-long STEM education program designed to bring together teams of NASA scientists, graduate, undergraduate and high school interns and high school STEM educators to become immersed in NASA research focused on atmospheric and climate changes in the 21st century. GISS climate research combines analysis of global datasets with global models of atmospheric, land surface, and oceanic processes to study climate change on Earth and other planetary atmospheres as a useful tool in assessing our general understanding of climate change. CCRI interns conduct research, gain knowledge in assigned research discipline, develop and present scientific presentations summarizing their research experience. Specifically, CCRI interns write a scientific research paper explaining basic ideas, research protocols, abstract, results, conclusion and experimental design. Prepare and present a professional presentation of their research project at NASA GISS, prepare and present a scientific poster of their research project at local and national research symposiums along with other federal agencies. CCRI Educators lead research teams under the direction of a NASA GISS scientist, conduct research, develop research based learning units and assist NASA scientists with the mentoring of interns. Educators create an Applied Research STEM Curriculum Unit Portfolio based on their research experience integrating NASA unique resources, tools and content into a teacher developed unit plan aligned with the State and NGSS standards. STEM Educators also Integrate and implement NASA unique units and content into their STEM courses during academic year, perform community education STEM engagement events, mentor interns in writing a research paper, oral research reporting, power point design and scientific poster design for presentation to local and national audiences. The CCRI program contributes to the Federal STEM Co-STEM initiatives by providing opportunities, NASA education resources and

  18. Modeling Global Water Use for the 21st Century: Water Futures and Solutions (WFaS) Initiative and Its Approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wada, Y.; Florke, M.; Hanasaki, N.; Eisner, S.; Fischer, G.; Tramberend, S.; Satoh, Y.; van Vliet, M. T. H.; Yillia, P.; Ringler, C.; hide

    2016-01-01

    To sustain growing food demand and increasing standard of living, global water use increased by nearly 6 times during the last 100 years, and continues to grow. As water demands get closer and closer to the water availability in many regions, each drop of water becomes increasingly valuable and water must be managed more efficiently and intensively. However, soaring water use worsens water scarcity conditions already prevalent in semi-arid and arid regions, increasing uncertainty for sustainable food production and economic development. Planning for future development and investments requires that we prepare water projections for the future. However, estimations are complicated because the future of the world's waters will be influenced by a combination of environmental, social, economic, and political factors, and there is only limited knowledge and data available about freshwater resources and how they are being used. The Water Futures and Solutions (WFaS) initiative coordinates its work with other ongoing scenario efforts for the sake of establishing a consistent set of new global water scenarios based on the shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) and the representative concentration pathways (RCPs). The WFaS "fast track" assessment uses three global water models, namely H08, PCR-GLOBWB, and WaterGAP. This study assesses the state of the art for estimating and projecting water use regionally and globally in a consistent manner. It provides an overview of different approaches, the uncertainty, strengths and weaknesses of the various estimation methods, types of management and policy decisions for which the current estimation methods are useful. We also discuss additional information most needed to be able to improve water use estimates and be able to assess a greater range of management options across the water-energy-climate nexus.

  19. Improving the spatial representation of soil properties and hydrology using topographically derived initialization processes in the SWAT model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Topography exerts critical controls on many hydrologic, geomorphologic, and environmental biophysical processes. Unfortunately many watershed modeling systems use topography only to define basin boundaries and stream channels and do not explicitly account for the topographic controls on processes su...

  20. Sensitivity of aerosol indirect forcing and autoconversion to cloud droplet parameterization: an assessment with the NASA Global Modeling Initiative.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sotiropoulou, R. P.; Meshkhidze, N.; Nenes, A.

    2006-12-01

    The aerosol indirect forcing is one of the largest sources of uncertainty in assessments of anthropogenic climate change [IPCC, 2001]. Much of this uncertainty arises from the approach used for linking cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC) to precursor aerosol. Global Climate Models (GCM) use a wide range of cloud droplet activation mechanisms ranging from empirical [Boucher and Lohmann, 1995] to detailed physically- based formulations [e.g., Abdul-Razzak and Ghan, 2000; Fountoukis and Nenes, 2005]. The objective of this study is to assess the uncertainties in indirect forcing and autoconversion of cloud water to rain caused by the application of different cloud droplet parameterization mechanisms; this is an important step towards constraining the aerosol indirect effects (AIE). Here we estimate the uncertainty in indirect forcing and autoconversion rate using the NASA Global Model Initiative (GMI). The GMI allows easy interchange of meteorological fields, chemical mechanisms and the aerosol microphysical packages. Therefore, it is an ideal tool for assessing the effect of different parameters on aerosol indirect forcing. The aerosol module includes primary emissions, chemical production of sulfate in clear air and in-cloud aqueous phase, gravitational sedimentation, dry deposition, wet scavenging in and below clouds, and hygroscopic growth. Model inputs include SO2 (fossil fuel and natural), black carbon (BC), organic carbon (OC), mineral dust and sea salt. The meteorological data used in this work were taken from the NASA Data Assimilation Office (DAO) and two different GCMs: the NASA GEOS4 finite volume GCM (FVGCM) and the Goddard Institute for Space Studies version II' (GISS II') GCM. Simulations were carried out for "present day" and "preindustrial" emissions using different meteorological fields (i.e. DAO, FVGCM, GISS II'); cloud droplet number concentration is computed from the correlations of Boucher and Lohmann [1995], Abdul-Razzak and Ghan [2000

  1. Cognitive modeling

    OpenAIRE

    Zandbelt, Bram

    2017-01-01

    Introductory presentation on cognitive modeling for the course ‘Cognitive control’ of the MSc program Cognitive Neuroscience at Radboud University. It addresses basic questions, such as 'What is a model?', 'Why use models?', and 'How to use models?'

  2. A Method to Quantify Plant Availability and Initiating Event Frequency Using a Large Event Tree, Small Fault Tree Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kee, Ernest J.; Sun, Alice; Rodgers, Shawn; Popova, ElmiraV; Nelson, Paul; Moiseytseva, Vera; Wang, Eric

    2006-01-01

    South Texas Project uses a large fault tree to produce scenarios (minimal cut sets) used in quantification of plant availability and event frequency predictions. On the other hand, the South Texas Project probabilistic risk assessment model uses a large event tree, small fault tree for quantifying core damage and radioactive release frequency predictions. The South Texas Project is converting its availability and event frequency model to use a large event tree, small fault in an effort to streamline application support and to provide additional detail in results. The availability and event frequency model as well as the applications it supports (maintenance and operational risk management, system engineering health assessment, preventive maintenance optimization, and RIAM) are briefly described. A methodology to perform availability modeling in a large event tree, small fault tree framework is described in detail. How the methodology can be used to support South Texas Project maintenance and operations risk management is described in detail. Differences with other fault tree methods and other recently proposed methods are discussed in detail. While the methods described are novel to the South Texas Project Risk Management program and to large event tree, small fault tree models, concepts in the area of application support and availability modeling have wider applicability to the industry. (authors)

  3. Modelling the models

    CERN Multimedia

    Anaïs Schaeffer

    2012-01-01

    By analysing the production of mesons in the forward region of LHC proton-proton collisions, the LHCf collaboration has provided key information needed to calibrate extremely high-energy cosmic ray models.   Average transverse momentum (pT) as a function of rapidity loss ∆y. Black dots represent LHCf data and the red diamonds represent SPS experiment UA7 results. The predictions of hadronic interaction models are shown by open boxes (sibyll 2.1), open circles (qgsjet II-03) and open triangles (epos 1.99). Among these models, epos 1.99 shows the best overall agreement with the LHCf data. LHCf is dedicated to the measurement of neutral particles emitted at extremely small angles in the very forward region of LHC collisions. Two imaging calorimeters – Arm1 and Arm2 – take data 140 m either side of the ATLAS interaction point. “The physics goal of this type of analysis is to provide data for calibrating the hadron interaction models – the well-known &...

  4. Atmospheric Models/Global Atmospheric Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    1998-09-30

    Atmospheric Models /Global Atmospheric Modeling Timothy F. Hogan Naval Research Laboratory Monterey, CA 93943-5502 phone: (831) 656-4705 fax: (831...to 00-00-1998 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Atmospheric Models /Global Atmospheric Modeling 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT...initialization of increments, improved cloud prediction, and improved surface fluxes) have been transition to 6.4 (Global Atmospheric Models , PE 0603207N, X-0513

  5. Modelling Practice

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cameron, Ian; Gani, Rafiqul

    2011-01-01

    This chapter deals with the practicalities of building, testing, deploying and maintaining models. It gives specific advice for each phase of the modelling cycle. To do this, a modelling framework is introduced which covers: problem and model definition; model conceptualization; model data...... requirements; model construction; model solution; model verification; model validation and finally model deployment and maintenance. Within the adopted methodology, each step is discussedthrough the consideration of key issues and questions relevant to the modelling activity. Practical advice, based on many...... years of experience is providing in directing the reader in their activities.Traps and pitfalls are discussed and strategies also given to improve model development towards “fit-for-purpose” models. The emphasis in this chapter is the adoption and exercise of a modelling methodology that has proven very...

  6. Final Report, Nuclear Energy Research Initiative (NERI) Project: An Innovative Reactor Analysis Methodology Based on a Quasidiffusion Nodal Core Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anistratov, Dmitriy Y.; Adams, Marvin L.; Palmer, Todd S.; Smith, Kord S.; Clarno, Kevin; Hikaru Hiruta; Razvan Nes

    2003-01-01

    OAK (B204) Final Report, NERI Project: ''An Innovative Reactor Analysis Methodology Based on a Quasidiffusion Nodal Core Model'' The present generation of reactor analysis methods uses few-group nodal diffusion approximations to calculate full-core eigenvalues and power distributions. The cross sections, diffusion coefficients, and discontinuity factors (collectively called ''group constants'') in the nodal diffusion equations are parameterized as functions of many variables, ranging from the obvious (temperature, boron concentration, etc.) to the more obscure (spectral index, moderator temperature history, etc.). These group constants, and their variations as functions of the many variables, are calculated by assembly-level transport codes. The current methodology has two main weaknesses that this project addressed. The first weakness is the diffusion approximation in the full-core calculation; this can be significantly inaccurate at interfaces between different assemblies. This project used the nodal diffusion framework to implement nodal quasidiffusion equations, which can capture transport effects to an arbitrary degree of accuracy. The second weakness is in the parameterization of the group constants; current models do not always perform well, especially at interfaces between unlike assemblies. The project developed a theoretical foundation for parameterization and homogenization models and used that theory to devise improved models. The new models were extended to tabulate information that the nodal quasidiffusion equations can use to capture transport effects in full-core calculations

  7. Mechanistic models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Curtis, S.B.

    1990-09-01

    Several models and theories are reviewed that incorporate the idea of radiation-induced lesions (repairable and/or irreparable) that can be related to molecular lesions in the DNA molecule. Usually the DNA double-strand or chromatin break is suggested as the critical lesion. In the models, the shoulder on the low-LET survival curve is hypothesized as being due to one (or more) of the following three mechanisms: (1) ``interaction`` of lesions produced by statistically independent particle tracks; (2) nonlinear (i.e., linear-quadratic) increase in the yield of initial lesions, and (3) saturation of repair processes at high dose. Comparisons are made between the various approaches. Several significant advances in model development are discussed; in particular, a description of the matrix formulation of the Markov versions of the RMR and LPL models is given. The more advanced theories have incorporated statistical fluctuations in various aspects of the energy-loss and lesion-formation process. An important direction is the inclusion of physical and chemical processes into the formulations by incorporating relevant track structure theory (Monte Carlo track simulations) and chemical reactions of radiation-induced radicals. At the biological end, identification of repair genes and how they operate as well as a better understanding of how DNA misjoinings lead to lethal chromosome aberrations are needed for appropriate inclusion into the theories. More effort is necessary to model the complex end point of radiation-induced carcinogenesis.

  8. Mechanistic models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Curtis, S.B.

    1990-09-01

    Several models and theories are reviewed that incorporate the idea of radiation-induced lesions (repairable and/or irreparable) that can be related to molecular lesions in the DNA molecule. Usually the DNA double-strand or chromatin break is suggested as the critical lesion. In the models, the shoulder on the low-LET survival curve is hypothesized as being due to one (or more) of the following three mechanisms: (1) interaction'' of lesions produced by statistically independent particle tracks; (2) nonlinear (i.e., linear-quadratic) increase in the yield of initial lesions, and (3) saturation of repair processes at high dose. Comparisons are made between the various approaches. Several significant advances in model development are discussed; in particular, a description of the matrix formulation of the Markov versions of the RMR and LPL models is given. The more advanced theories have incorporated statistical fluctuations in various aspects of the energy-loss and lesion-formation process. An important direction is the inclusion of physical and chemical processes into the formulations by incorporating relevant track structure theory (Monte Carlo track simulations) and chemical reactions of radiation-induced radicals. At the biological end, identification of repair genes and how they operate as well as a better understanding of how DNA misjoinings lead to lethal chromosome aberrations are needed for appropriate inclusion into the theories. More effort is necessary to model the complex end point of radiation-induced carcinogenesis.

  9. The Use of Video Modeling with the Picture Exchange Communication System to Increase Independent Communicative Initiations in Preschoolers with Autism and Developmental Delays

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cihak, David F.; Smith, Catherine C.; Cornett, Ashlee; Coleman, Mari Beth

    2012-01-01

    The use of video modeling (VM) procedures in conjunction with the picture exchange communication system (PECS) to increase independent communicative initiations in preschool-age students was evaluated in this study. The four participants were 3-year-old children with limited communication skills prior to the intervention. Two of the students had…

  10. Enhancing Infant Mental Health Using a Capacity-Building Model: A Case Study of a Process Evaluation of the "Ready, Steady, Grow" Initiative

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Farrelly, Christine; Guerin, Suzanne; Victory, Gerard

    2017-01-01

    Infant mental health (IMH) is best promoted through a continuum of services underpinned by strong service capacity. However, service providers often lack fundamental IMH knowledge and skills. Using the Ready, Steady, Grow (RSG) initiative as a case study of a capacity-building model (P., Hawe, L., King, M., Noort, C., Jordens, & B., Llyod,…

  11. The Caribbean Basin Initiative: Reaction to the CBI I as an Economic Development Model and of Its Impact to the Region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Potoker, Elaine S.

    Begun under President Reagan, the Caribbean Basin Initiative (CBI) was a program of trade, economic assistance, and tax measures designed to generate economic growth in the region through private sector investment and trade. This study proposes to: (1) discuss the reaction to the CBI as a viable economic development model for the region; and (2)…

  12. Application of HEC-HMS in a Cold Region Watershed and Use of RADARSAT-2 Soil Moisture in Initializing the Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hassan A. K. M. Bhuiyan

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an assessment of the applicability of using RADARSAT-2-derived soil moisture data in the Hydrologic Modelling System developed by the Hydrologic Engineering Center (HEC-HMS for flood forecasting with a case study in the Sturgeon Creek watershed in Manitoba, Canada. Spring flooding in Manitoba is generally influenced by both winter precipitation and soil moisture conditions in the fall of the previous year. As a result, the soil moisture accounting (SMA and the temperature index algorithms are employed in the simulation. Results from event and continuous simulations of HEC-HMS show that the model is suitable for flood forecasting in Manitoba. Soil moisture data from the Manitoba Agriculture field survey and RADARSAT-2 satellite were used to set the initial soil moisture for the event simulations. The results confirm the benefit of using satellite data in capturing peak flows in a snowmelt event. A sensitivity analysis of SMA parameters, such as soil storage, maximum infiltration, soil percolation, maximum canopy storage and tension storage, was performed and ranked to determine which parameters have a significant impact on the performance of the model. The results show that the soil moisture storage was the most sensitive parameter. The sensitivity analysis of initial soil moisture in a snowmelt event shows that cumulative flow and peak flow are highly influenced by the initial soil moisture setting of the model. Therefore, there is a potential to utilize RADARSAT-2-derived soil moisture for hydrological modelling in other snow-dominated Manitoba watersheds.

  13. A Mathematical Model of Neutral Lipid Content in terms of Initial Nitrogen Concentration and Validation in Coelastrum sp. HA-1 and Application in Chlorella sorokiniana

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhenhua Yang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Microalgae are considered to be a potential major biomass feedstock for biofuel due to their high lipid content. However, no correlation equations as a function of initial nitrogen concentration for lipid accumulation have been developed for simplicity to predict lipid production and optimize the lipid production process. In this study, a lipid accumulation model was developed with simple parameters based on the assumption protein synthesis shift to lipid synthesis by a linear function of nitrogen quota. The model predictions fitted well for the growth, lipid content, and nitrogen consumption of Coelastrum sp. HA-1 under various initial nitrogen concentrations. Then the model was applied successfully in Chlorella sorokiniana to predict the lipid content with different light intensities. The quantitative relationship between initial nitrogen concentrations and the final lipid content with sensitivity analysis of the model were also discussed. Based on the model results, the conversion efficiency from protein synthesis to lipid synthesis is higher and higher in microalgae metabolism process as nitrogen decreases; however, the carbohydrate composition content remains basically unchanged neither in HA-1 nor in C. sorokiniana.

  14. Mathematical modeling of the ethanol fermentation of cashew apple juice by a flocculent yeast: the effect of initial substrate concentration and temperature.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pinheiro, Álvaro Daniel Teles; da Silva Pereira, Andréa; Barros, Emanuel Meneses; Antonini, Sandra Regina Ceccato; Cartaxo, Samuel Jorge Marques; Rocha, Maria Valderez Ponte; Gonçalves, Luciana Rocha B

    2017-08-01

    In this work, the effect of initial sugar concentration and temperature on the production of ethanol by Saccharomyces cerevisiae CCA008, a flocculent yeast, using cashew apple juice in a 1L-bioreactor was studied. The experimental results were used to develop a kinetic model relating biomass, ethanol production and total reducing sugar consumption. Monod, Andrews, Levenspiel and Ghose and Tyagi models were investigated to represent the specific growth rate without inhibition, with inhibition by substrate and with inhibition by product, respectively. Model validation was performed using a new set of experimental data obtained at 34 °C and using 100 g L -1 of initial substrate concentration. The model proposed by Ghose and Tyagi was able to accurately describe the dynamics of ethanol production by S. cerevisiae CCA008 growing on cashew apple juice, containing an initial reducing sugar concentration ranging from 70 to 170 g L -1 and temperature, from 26 to 42 °C. The model optimization was also accomplished based on the following parameters: percentage volume of ethanol per volume of solution (%V ethanol /V solution ), efficiency and reaction productivity. The optimal operational conditions were determined using response surface graphs constructed with simulated data, reaching an efficiency and a productivity of 93.5% and 5.45 g L -1  h -1 , respectively.

  15. Initial validation of 4D-model for a clinical PET scanner using the Monte Carlo code gate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vieira, Igor F.; Lima, Fernando R.A.; Gomes, Marcelo S., E-mail: falima@cnen.gov.b [Centro Regional de Ciencias Nucleares do Nordeste (CRCN-NE/CNEN-PE), Recife, PE (Brazil); Vieira, Jose W.; Pacheco, Ludimila M. [Instituto Federal de Educacao, Ciencia e Tecnologia (IFPE), Recife, PE (Brazil); Chaves, Rosa M. [Instituto de Radium e Supervoltagem Ivo Roesler, Recife, PE (Brazil)

    2011-07-01

    Building exposure computational models (ECM) of emission tomography (PET and SPECT) currently has several dedicated computing tools based on Monte Carlo techniques (SimSET, SORTEO, SIMIND, GATE). This paper is divided into two steps: (1) using the dedicated code GATE (Geant4 Application for Tomographic Emission) to build a 4D model (where the fourth dimension is the time) of a clinical PET scanner from General Electric, GE ADVANCE, simulating the geometric and electronic structures suitable for this scanner, as well as some phenomena 4D, for example, rotating gantry; (2) the next step is to evaluate the performance of the model built here in the reproduction of test noise equivalent count rate (NEC) based on the NEMA Standards Publication NU protocols 2-2007 for this tomography. The results for steps (1) and (2) will be compared with experimental and theoretical values of the literature showing actual state of art of validation. (author)

  16. Initial Analysis of Inner Crater Eruptive Deposits and Modeling of the 2005 Eruption of Ilamatepec (Santa Ana) Volcano, El Salvador

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martinez-Hackert, B.; Bajo, J. V.; Escobar, D.; Gutierrez, E.

    2011-12-01

    The October 1st, 2005 eruption of Ilamatepec Volcano, also known as Santa Ana Volcano in El Salvador, Central America, was a relatively small phreatic possibly phreatomagmatic eruption that generated an approximately 10km high ash column, with a volume of 1.5 million cubic meters. It generated small pyroclastic density currents, and shortly after the eruption a hot lahar. All of these volcanic products present grat danger to the surrounding population and the surrounding fertile lands growing coffe and sugar cane, the major export products. To better understand the eruptive behavior of this active composite volcano, older deposits need to be studied. An initial analysis of the inner crater eruptive deposits was undertaken in 2011. The many layers that can be seen within the crater suggest that Santa Ana volcano alternates its eruptions from phreatic to phreatomagmatic to magmatic, back to phreatomagmatic to phreatic with a period of rest in between. The last magmatic eruption of the Santa Ana Volcano took place in 1904. There are some historical records of it, and the scoracious materials and lava flows can still be well traced on the flanks and the crater of Ilamatepec, while the 2005 eruption has been eroded away in most areas of the flanks. Observations and data collected in 2005 and 2011 indicate that pyroclastic density currents went not only to the Southeastern flanks of the volcano, but also towards the Northwestern flanks, an area behind the highest rim of the volcano. Deposits up to 0.5 m were found in 2011, after significant erosion already had taken place. We present here the partial stratigraphic column taken within the inner crater walls that indicate alternating eruption styles from eruptions well pre-1904, with radiocarbon dating pending. Additionally, we show the results of the modeling of pyroclastic deposits, and lahars using Titan2D on DEMs extracted from the only topographic map (pre-1980) which has a 10 m resolution of the volcano, and a DEM

  17. Modeling error in assessment of mammographic image features for improved computer-aided mammography training: initial experience

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mazurowski, Maciej A.; Tourassi, Georgia D.

    2011-03-01

    In this study we investigate the hypothesis that there exist patterns in erroneous assessment of BI-RADS image features among radiology trainees when performing diagnostic interpretation of mammograms. We also investigate whether these error making patterns can be captured by individual user models. To test our hypothesis we propose a user modeling algorithm that uses the previous readings of a trainee to identify whether certain BI-RADS feature values (e.g. "spiculated" value for "margin" feature) are associated with higher than usual likelihood that the feature will be assessed incorrectly. In our experiments we used readings of 3 radiology residents and 7 breast imaging experts for 33 breast masses for the following BI-RADS features: parenchyma density, mass margin, mass shape and mass density. The expert readings were considered as the gold standard. Rule-based individual user models were developed and tested using the leave one-one-out crossvalidation scheme. Our experimental evaluation showed that the individual user models are accurate in identifying cases for which errors are more likely to be made. The user models captured regularities in error making for all 3 residents. This finding supports our hypothesis about existence of individual error making patterns in assessment of mammographic image features using the BI-RADS lexicon. Explicit user models identifying the weaknesses of each resident could be of great use when developing and adapting a personalized training plan to meet the resident's individual needs. Such approach fits well with the framework of adaptive computer-aided educational systems in mammography we have proposed before.

  18. A pore structure model for the gas transport property changes, initial oxidation rates and cumulative weight loss of AGR moderator graphite

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Johnson, P.A.V.

    1985-09-01

    A quantitative model has been developed for the gas transport property variation, cumulative weight loss and initial oxidation rates of AGR moderator graphite. The model utilises the theory of dynamic moments of the pore structure to calculate the changes in physical properties brought about by radiolytic corrosion taking place within the graphite porosity. In order to account for the behaviour of the initial rate curves, and the weight loss data obtained it is necessary to invoke the presence of a group of cylindrical pore and a group of small slab-shaped pores. The latter are methane depleted. This is in addition to the pore group involved in gas transport which is best represented by cylinders of mean radius 2.13 μm. The model satisfactorily predicts the experimental weight loss data obtained from experiments in the DIDO 6V3 and BFB loops. (author)

  19. External validation of Vascular Study Group of New England risk predictive model of mortality after elective abdominal aorta aneurysm repair in the Vascular Quality Initiative and comparison against established models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eslami, Mohammad H; Rybin, Denis V; Doros, Gheorghe; Siracuse, Jeffrey J; Farber, Alik

    2018-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to externally validate a recently reported Vascular Study Group of New England (VSGNE) risk predictive model of postoperative mortality after elective abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) repair and to compare its predictive ability across different patients' risk categories and against the established risk predictive models using the Vascular Quality Initiative (VQI) AAA sample. The VQI AAA database (2010-2015) was queried for patients who underwent elective AAA repair. The VSGNE cases were excluded from the VQI sample. The external validation of a recently published VSGNE AAA risk predictive model, which includes only preoperative variables (age, gender, history of coronary artery disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, cerebrovascular disease, creatinine levels, and aneurysm size) and planned type of repair, was performed using the VQI elective AAA repair sample. The predictive value of the model was assessed via the C-statistic. Hosmer-Lemeshow method was used to assess calibration and goodness of fit. This model was then compared with the Medicare, Vascular Governance Northwest model, and Glasgow Aneurysm Score for predicting mortality in VQI sample. The Vuong test was performed to compare the model fit between the models. Model discrimination was assessed in different risk group VQI quintiles. Data from 4431 cases from the VSGNE sample with the overall mortality rate of 1.4% was used to develop the model. The internally validated VSGNE model showed a very high discriminating ability in predicting mortality (C = 0.822) and good model fit (Hosmer-Lemeshow P = .309) among the VSGNE elective AAA repair sample. External validation on 16,989 VQI cases with an overall 0.9% mortality rate showed very robust predictive ability of mortality (C = 0.802). Vuong tests yielded a significant fit difference favoring the VSGNE over then Medicare model (C = 0.780), Vascular Governance Northwest (0.774), and Glasgow Aneurysm Score (0

  20. An Alternative Undergraduate Teacher Preparation Program: A Comprehensive One-to-One iPad Initiative Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nguyen, Neal Nghia; Lyons, Catherine; Rogers-Adkinson, Diana; Bohannon, Larry; Fridley, Daryl; Gunn, Sharon; Smith, Shonta

    2016-01-01

    To date little literature has been published on how an alternative undergraduate teacher preparation program infuses mobile devices such as the iPad and its applications, model classrooms, and a high-tech computer lab to prepare teacher candidates. Preparing teacher candidates to generalize technological skills is most effective when it is hands…

  1. Learning How to Construct Models of Dynamic Systems: An Initial Evaluation of the Dragoon Intelligent Tutoring System

    Science.gov (United States)

    VanLehn, Kurt; Wetzel, Jon; Grover, Sachin; van de Sande, Brett

    2017-01-01

    Constructing models of dynamic systems is an important skill in both mathematics and science instruction. However, it has proved difficult to teach. Dragoon is an intelligent tutoring system intended to quickly and effectively teach this important skill. This paper describes Dragoon and an evaluation of it. The evaluation randomly assigned…

  2. A Model for Designing Peer-Initiated Activities to Promote Racial Awareness and an Appreciation of Differences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mann, Barbara A.; Moser, Rita M.

    1991-01-01

    Presents a theoretical framework suggesting ways to design peer intervention programs and group existing programs. Suggests criteria for effective racial awareness programs, discussing examples of successful college prejudice activities. Notes diversity education efforts are most successful when based on a theoretical model that recognizes the…

  3. The Albufera Initiative for Biodiversity: a cost effective model for integrating science and volunteer participation in coastal protected area management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Riddiford, N.J.; Veraart, J.A.; Férriz, I.; Owens, N.W.; Royo, L.; Honey, M.R.

    2014-01-01

    This paper puts forward a multi-disciplinary field project, set up in 1989 at the Parc Natural de s’Albufera in Mallorca, Balearic Islands, Spain, as an example of a cost effective model for integrating science and volunteer participation in a coastal protected area. Outcomes include the provision

  4. A simple probabilistic model of initiation of motion of poorly-sorted granular mixtures subjected to a turbulent flow

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferreira, Rui M. L.; Ferrer-Boix, Carles; Hassan, Marwan

    2015-04-01

    Initiation of sediment motion is a classic problem of sediment and fluid mechanics that has been studied at wide range of scales. By analysis at channel scale one means the investigation of a reach of a stream, sufficiently large to encompass a large number of sediment grains but sufficiently small not to experience important variations in key hydrodynamic variables. At this scale, and for poorly-sorted hydraulically rough granular beds, existing studies show a wide variation of the value of the critical Shields parameter. Such uncertainty constitutes a problem for engineering studies. To go beyond Shields paradigm for the study of incipient motion at channel scale this problem can be can be cast in probabilistic terms. An empirical probability of entrainment, which will naturally account for size-selective transport, can be calculated at the scale of the bed reach, using a) the probability density functions (PDFs) of the flow velocities {{f}u}(u|{{x}n}) over the bed reach, where u is the flow velocity and xn is the location, b) the PDF of the variability of competent velocities for the entrainment of individual particles, {{f}{{up}}}({{u}p}), where up is the competent velocity, and c) the concept of joint probability of entrainment and grain size. One must first divide the mixture in into several classes M and assign a correspondent frequency p_M. For each class, a conditional PDF of the competent velocity {{f}{{up}}}({{u}p}|M) is obtained, from the PDFs of the parameters that intervene in the model for the entrainment of a single particle: [ {{u}p}/√{g(s-1){{di}}}={{Φ }u}( { {{C}k} },{{{φ}k}},ψ,{{u}p/{di}}{{{ν}(w)}} )) ] where { Ck } is a set of shape parameters that characterize the non-sphericity of the grain, { φk} is a set of angles that describe the orientation of particle axes and its positioning relatively to its neighbours, ψ is the skin friction angle of the particles, {{{u}p}{{d}i}}/{{{ν}(w)}} is a particle Reynolds number, di is the sieving

  5. Modeling and Validation of the Thermal Response of TDI Encapsulating Foam as a function of Initial Density

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dodd, Amanda B. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Larsen, Marvin E. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2014-09-01

    TDI foams of nominal density from 10 to 45 pound per cubic foot were decomposed within a heated stainless steel container. The pressure in the container and temperatures measured by thermocouples were recorded with each test proceeding to an allowed maximum pressure before venting. Two replicate tests for each of four densities and two orientations in gravity produced very consistent pressure histories. Some thermal responses demonstrate random sudden temperature increases due to decomposition product movement. The pressurization of the container due to the generation of gaseous products is more rapid for denser foams. When heating in the inverted orientation, where gravity is in the opposite direction of the applied heat flux, the liquefied decomposition products move towards the heated plate and the pressure rises more rapidly than in the upright configuration. This effect is present at all the densities tested but becomes more pronounced as density of the foam is decreased. A thermochemical material model implemented in a transient conduction model solved with the finite element method was compared to the test data. The expected uncertainty of the model was estimated using the mean value method and importance factors for the uncertain parameters were estimated. The model that was assessed does not consider the effect of liquefaction or movement of gases. The result of the comparison is that the model uncertainty estimates do not account for the variation in orientation (no gravitational affects are in the model) and therefore the pressure predictions are not distinguishable due to orientation. Temperature predictions were generally in good agreement with the experimental data. Predictions for response locations on the outside of the can benefit from reliable estimates associated with conduction in the metal. For the lighter foams, temperatures measured on the embedded component fall well with the estimated uncertainty intervals indicating the energy transport

  6. Fitting Nonlinear Ordinary Differential Equation Models with Random Effects and Unknown Initial Conditions Using the Stochastic Approximation Expectation-Maximization (SAEM) Algorithm.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chow, Sy-Miin; Lu, Zhaohua; Sherwood, Andrew; Zhu, Hongtu

    2016-03-01

    The past decade has evidenced the increased prevalence of irregularly spaced longitudinal data in social sciences. Clearly lacking, however, are modeling tools that allow researchers to fit dynamic models to irregularly spaced data, particularly data that show nonlinearity and heterogeneity in dynamical structures. We consider the issue of fitting multivariate nonlinear differential equation models with random effects and unknown initial conditions to irregularly spaced data. A stochastic approximation expectation-maximization algorithm is proposed and its performance is evaluated using a benchmark nonlinear dynamical systems model, namely, the Van der Pol oscillator equations. The empirical utility of the proposed technique is illustrated using a set of 24-h ambulatory cardiovascular data from 168 men and women. Pertinent methodological challenges and unresolved issues are discussed.

  7. A 3D active-passive numerical skeletal muscle model incorporating initial tissue strains. Validation with experimental results on rat tibialis anterior muscle.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grasa, J; Ramírez, A; Osta, R; Muñoz, M J; Soteras, F; Calvo, B

    2011-10-01

    This paper presents a three-dimensional finite element model of skeletal muscle and its validation incorporating inital tissue strains. A constitutive relation was determined by using a convex free strain energy function (SEF) where active and passive response contributions were obtained fitting experimental data from the rat tibialis anterior (TA) muscle. The passive and active finite strains response was modelled within the framework of continuum mechanics by a quasi-incompressible transversely isotropic material formulation. Magnetic resonance images (MRI) were obtained to reconstruct the external geometry of the TA. This geometry includes initial strains also taken into account in the numerical model. The numerical results show excellent agreement with the experimental results when comparing reaction force-extension curves both in passive and active tests. The proposed constitutive model for the muscle is implemented in a subroutine in the commercial finite element software package ABAQUS.

  8. The Initialization of the Divergent Component of the Horizontal Wind in Mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction Models and Its Effect on Initial Precipitation Rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1979-05-01

    ofI Meteorology Sabih I. Hayek , Professor of Engineering Mechanics Acces’,ion ForjI D!T , "T I ,, : ’ 1 11 ................ I iiiI ABSTRACT i...magnitude of vector G = (G’G) I xxv LIST OF ABBREVIATIONSI AW Anthes and Warner, 1978 (a reference) CFL Courant- Friedrichs -Lewy DI dynamic initialization...exist if the domain were infinite. The method is mathematically equivalent to using a Green’s function solution of (2.53) ( Hayek , personal communication

  9. Noninferiority of a task-shifting HIV care and treatment model using peer counselors and nurses among Ugandan women initiated on ART: evidence from a randomized trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiweewa, Flavia M; Wabwire, Deo; Nakibuuka, Jessica; Mubiru, Mike; Bagenda, Danstan; Musoke, Phillippa; Fowler, Mary G; Antelman, Gretchen

    2013-08-01

    To assess the noninferiority of a task-shifting HIV treatment model relying on peer counselors and nurses compared with a physician-centered model among HIV-1-positive women initiated on antiretroviral therapy (ART) at a prevention of mother-to-child transmission clinic in Mulago Hospital, Uganda. HIV-1-infected ART eligible naive women were randomized to either nurse-peer (intervention) or doctor-counselor (standard model) arm. The primary endpoint was virologic success defined attaining a viral load baseline) and pill count. Data on 85 participants were analyzed (n = 45 in the intervention and n = 40 in the standard model). The proportion of participants with virologic success was similar in the standard and intervention models [91% versus 88% respectively; difference, 3%; 95% confidence interval (CI): -11% to 12%]. Probability of viral detection at 6-12 months' time point was similar in the 2 models (log-rank test P = 0.73). Immunologic and pill count indicators were also similar in the intervention and standard models, with mean CD4 increase of 217 versus 206 cells per microliter (difference, 11; 95% CI: -60 to 82 cells/μL) and pill counts of 99.8% versus 99.7% (difference, 0.0; 95% CI: -5% to 5%) respectively. Nurses and peer counselors were not inferior in providing ART follow-up care to postpartum women, an approach that may help deliver treatment to many more HIV-infected people.

  10. Modifying the Soil and Water Assessment Tool to Simulate Cropland Carbon Flux: Model Development and Initial Evaluation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, Xuesong; Izaurralde, Roberto C.; Arnold, Jeffrey; Williams, Jimmy R.; Srinivasan, Raghavan

    2013-10-01

    Climate change is one of the most compelling modern issues and has important implications for almost every aspect of natural and human systems. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model has been applied worldwide to support sustainable land and water management in a changing climate. However, the inadequacies of the existing carbon algorithm in SWAT limit its application in assessing impacts of human activities on CO2 emission, one important source of greenhouse gases (GHGs) that traps heat in the earth system and results in global warming. In this research, we incorporate a revised version of the CENTURY carbon model into SWAT to describe dynamics of soil organic matter (SOM)- residue and simulate land-atmosphere carbon exchange.

  11. Modelling the hydromechanical response in the vicinity of the Koyna reservoir (India): results for the initial filling period

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gavrilenko, P.; Singh, Chandrani; Chadha, R. K.

    2010-10-01

    The seismic activity in the Koyna area is clearly related to the water impoundment of the Koyna dam in 1962, and has reached a remarkable level with the occurrence of a major event of magnitude 6.3 in 1967 December 10. We present a homogeneous poroelastic model based on analysis of the first eight years of seismicity, which aims to link the water-level fluctuations of the reservoir with the seismicity. Starting from a discretized lake, we calculate the stress field resulting from the water-level fluctuations and the pore pressure changes due to the undrained and the diffusive responses of the medium. Then, we compare the Coulomb stress variations with a set of relocated seismic events. We find that more than 80 per cent of the relocated events before the M6.3 event are well described by this poroelastic model, leading us to derive a suitable diffusivity cp = 0.2m2s-1. Then, we model the response of the system after the M6.3 event of 1967 December 10, by comparing the variation of the Coulomb stress field with the spatio-temporal characteristics of the relocated post-seismic events and the decay of aftershocks with time. We find that compared to before the main event a tenfold increase in hydraulic diffusivity is required to satisfactorily describe the aftershock decay with the appropriate Omori exponent. Although this increase in diffusivity may be physically related to the main shock we also note that events later than 9 months after the main shock are not well explained. We therefore propose an alternative hydrological model, which involves two compartments of contrasting diffusivities.

  12. High Performance Computing Application: Solar Dynamo Model Project II, Corona and Heliosphere Component Initialization, Integration and Validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-06-24

    the corona required to provide such conditions were still steady-state in formulation, anchored to a synoptic magnetogram describing a snapshot of the...state in their text that “a complete picture requires a comprehensive model of all of the processes considered together.” For convenience, however, they...updated magnetic field synoptic data, J. Geophys. Res., 117, A08110, doi:10.1029/2011JA017494. Yeates, A. R., D. H. Mackay, and A. A. van

  13. An initiative towards an energy and environment scheme for Iran: Introducing RAISE (Richest Alternatives for Implementation to Supply Energy) model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eshraghi, Hadi; Ahadi, Mohammad Sadegh

    2016-01-01

    Decision making in Iran's energy and environment-related issues has always been tied to complexities. Discussing these complexities and the necessity to deal with them, this paper strives to help the country with a tool by introducing Richest Alternatives for Implementation to Supply Energy (RAISE), a mixed integer linear programming model developed by the means of GNUMathprog mathematical programming language. The paper fully elaborates authors' desired modeling mentality and formulations on which RAISE is programmed to work and verifies its structure by running a widely known sample case named “UTOPIA” and comparing the results with other works including OSeMOSYS and Temoa. The model applies RAISE model to Iranian energy sector to elicit optimal policy without and with a CO 2 emission cap. The results suggest promotion of energy efficiency through investment on combined cycle power plants as the key to optimal policy in power generation sector. Regarding oil refining sector, investment on condensate refineries and advanced refineries equipped with Residual Fluid Catalytic Cracking (RFCC) units are suggested. Results also undermine the prevailing supposition that climate change mitigation deteriorates economic efficiency of energy system and suggest that there is a strong synergy between them. In the case of imposing a CO 2 cap that aims at maintaining CO 2 emissions from electricity production activities at 2012 levels, a shift to renewable energies occurs. - Highlights: • Combined cycle power plant is the best option to meet base load requirements. • There's synergy between climate change mitigation and economic affordability. • Power sector reacts to an emission cap by moving towards renewable energies. • Instead of being exported, condensates should be refined by condensate refineries • Iran's refining sector should be advanced by shifting to RFCC-equipped refineries.

  14. An inducible knockout mouse to model the cell-autonomous role of PTEN in initiating endometrial, prostate and thyroid neoplasias.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mirantes, Cristina; Eritja, Núria; Dosil, Maria Alba; Santacana, Maria; Pallares, Judit; Gatius, Sónia; Bergadà, Laura; Maiques, Oscar; Matias-Guiu, Xavier; Dolcet, Xavier

    2013-05-01

    PTEN is one of the most frequently mutated tumor suppressor genes in human cancers. The role of PTEN in carcinogenesis has been validated by knockout mouse models. PTEN heterozygous mice develop neoplasms in multiple organs. Unfortunately, the embryonic lethality of biallelic excision of PTEN has inhibited the study of complete PTEN deletion in the development and progression of cancer. By crossing PTEN conditional knockout mice with transgenic mice expressing a tamoxifen-inducible Cre-ER(T) under the control of a chicken actin promoter, we have generated a tamoxifen-inducible mouse model that allows temporal control of PTEN deletion. Interestingly, administration of a single dose of tamoxifen resulted in PTEN deletion mainly in epithelial cells, but not in stromal, mesenchymal or hematopoietic cells. Using the mT/mG double-fluorescent Cre reporter mice, we demonstrate that epithelial-specific PTEN excision was caused by differential Cre activity among tissues and cells types. Tamoxifen-induced deletion of PTEN resulted in extremely rapid and consistent formation of endometrial in situ adenocarcinoma, prostate intraepithelial neoplasia and thyroid hyperplasia. We also analyzed the role of PTEN ablation in other epithelial cells, such as the tubular cells of the kidney, hepatocytes, colonic epithelial cells or bronchiolar epithelium, but those tissues did not exhibit neoplastic growth. Finally, to validate this model as a tool to assay the efficacy of anti-tumor drugs in PTEN deficiency, we administered the mTOR inhibitor everolimus to mice with induced PTEN deletion. Everolimus dramatically reduced the progression of endometrial proliferations and significantly reduced thyroid hyperplasia. This model could be a valuable tool to study the cell-autonomous mechanisms involved in PTEN-loss-induced carcinogenesis and provides a good platform to study the effect of anti-neoplastic drugs on PTEN-negative tumors.

  15. Initial stage sintering of polymer particles – Experiments and modelling of size-, temperature- and time-dependent contacts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fuchs Regina

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The early-stage sintering of thin layers of micron-sized polystyrene (PS particles, at sintering temperatures near and above the glass transition temperature Tg (~ 100°C, is studied utilizing 3D tomography, nanoindentation and confocal microscopy. Our experimental results confirm the existence of a critical particle radius (rcrit ~ 1 μm below which surface forces need to be considered as additional driving force, on top of the usual surfacetension driven viscous flow sintering mechanism. Both sintering kinetics and mechanical properties of particles smaller than rcrit are dominated by contact deformation due to surface forces, so that sintering of larger particles is generally characterized by viscous flow. Consequently, smaller particles require shorter sintering. These experimental observations are supported by discrete particle simulations that are based on analytical models: for small particles, if only viscous sintering is considered, the model under-predicts the neck radius during early stage sintering, which confirms the need for an additional driving mechanism like elastic-plastic repulsion and surface forces that are both added to the DEM model.

  16. An initial abstraction and constant loss model, and methods for estimating unit hydrographs, peak streamflows, and flood volumes for urban basins in Missouri

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huizinga, Richard J.

    2014-01-01

    Streamflow data, basin characteristics, and rainfall data from 39 streamflow-gaging stations for urban areas in and adjacent to Missouri were used by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Metropolitan Sewer District of St. Louis to develop an initial abstraction and constant loss model (a time-distributed basin-loss model) and a gamma unit hydrograph (GUH) for urban areas in Missouri. Study-specific methods to determine peak streamflow and flood volume for a given rainfall event also were developed.

  17. KRAS (G12D Cooperates with AML1/ETO to Initiate a Mouse Model Mimicking Human Acute Myeloid Leukemia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shanmin Zhao

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Background/Aims: It has been demonstrated that KRAS mutations represent about 90% of cancer-associated mutations, and that KRAS mutations play an essential role in neoplastic transformation. Cancer-associated RAS mutations occur frequently in acute myeloid leukemia (AML, suggesting a functional role for Ras in leukemogenesis. Methods: We successfully established a mouse model of human leukemia by transplanting bone marrow cells co-transfected with the K-ras (G12D mutation and AML1/ETO fusion protein. Results: Mice transplanted with AML/ETO+KRAS co-transduced cells had the highest mortality rate than mice transplanted with AML/ETO- or KRAS-transduced cells (115d vs. 150d. Upon reaching a terminal disease stage, EGFP-positive cells dominated their spleen, lymph nodes, peripheral blood and central nervous system tissue. Immunophenotyping, cytologic analyses revealed that AML/ETO+KRAS leukemias predominantly contained immature myeloid precursors (EGFP+/c-Kit+/Mac-1-/Gr-1-. Histologic analyses revealed that massive leukemic infiltrations were closely packed in dense sheets that effaced the normal architecture of spleen and thymus in mice transplanted with AML1/ETO + KRAS co-transduced cells. K-ras mRNA and protein expression were upregulated in bone marrow cells of the K-ras group and AML1/ETO + Kras group. The phosphorylation of MEK/ERK was significantly enhanced in the AML1/ETO + Kras group. The similar results of the AML1/ETO + Nras group were consistent with those reported previously. Conclusion: Co-transduction of KrasG12D and AML1/ETO induces acute monoblastic leukemia. Since expression of mutant K-ras alone was insufficient to induce leukemia, this model may be useful for investigating the multi-step leukemogenesis model of human leukemia.

  18. Universal sequence replication, reversible polymerization and early functional biopolymers: a model for the initiation of prebiotic sequence evolution.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sara Imari Walker

    Full Text Available Many models for the origin of life have focused on understanding how evolution can drive the refinement of a preexisting enzyme, such as the evolution of efficient replicase activity. Here we present a model for what was, arguably, an even earlier stage of chemical evolution, when polymer sequence diversity was generated and sustained before, and during, the onset of functional selection. The model includes regular environmental cycles (e.g. hydration-dehydration cycles that drive polymers between times of replication and functional activity, which coincide with times of different monomer and polymer diffusivity. Template-directed replication of informational polymers, which takes place during the dehydration stage of each cycle, is considered to be sequence-independent. New sequences are generated by spontaneous polymer formation, and all sequences compete for a finite monomer resource that is recycled via reversible polymerization. Kinetic Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate that this proposed prebiotic scenario provides a robust mechanism for the exploration of sequence space. Introduction of a polymer sequence with monomer synthetase activity illustrates that functional sequences can become established in a preexisting pool of otherwise non-functional sequences. Functional selection does not dominate system dynamics and sequence diversity remains high, permitting the emergence and spread of more than one functional sequence. It is also observed that polymers spontaneously form clusters in simulations where polymers diffuse more slowly than monomers, a feature that is reminiscent of a previous proposal that the earliest stages of life could have been defined by the collective evolution of a system-wide cooperation of polymer aggregates. Overall, the results presented demonstrate the merits of considering plausible prebiotic polymer chemistries and environments that would have allowed for the rapid turnover of monomer resources and for

  19. SU-E-I-33: Initial Evaluation of Model-Based Iterative CT Reconstruction Using Standard Image Quality Phantoms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gingold, E; Dave, J

    2014-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this study was to compare a new model-based iterative reconstruction with existing reconstruction methods (filtered backprojection and basic iterative reconstruction) using quantitative analysis of standard image quality phantom images. Methods: An ACR accreditation phantom (Gammex 464) and a CATPHAN600 phantom were scanned using 3 routine clinical acquisition protocols (adult axial brain, adult abdomen, and pediatric abdomen) on a Philips iCT system. Each scan was acquired using default conditions and 75%, 50% and 25% dose levels. Images were reconstructed using standard filtered backprojection (FBP), conventional iterative reconstruction (iDose4) and a prototype model-based iterative reconstruction (IMR). Phantom measurements included CT number accuracy, contrast to noise ratio (CNR), modulation transfer function (MTF), low contrast detectability (LCD), and noise power spectrum (NPS). Results: The choice of reconstruction method had no effect on CT number accuracy, or MTF (p<0.01). The CNR of a 6 HU contrast target was improved by 1–67% with iDose4 relative to FBP, while IMR improved CNR by 145–367% across all protocols and dose levels. Within each scan protocol, the CNR improvement from IMR vs FBP showed a general trend of greater improvement at lower dose levels. NPS magnitude was greatest for FBP and lowest for IMR. The NPS of the IMR reconstruction showed a pronounced decrease with increasing spatial frequency, consistent with the unusual noise texture seen in IMR images. Conclusion: Iterative Model Reconstruction reduces noise and improves contrast-to-noise ratio without sacrificing spatial resolution in CT phantom images. This offers the possibility of radiation dose reduction and improved low contrast detectability compared with filtered backprojection or conventional iterative reconstruction

  20. Quantitative assessment of hyperacute cerebral infarction with intravoxel incoherent motion MR imaging: Initial experience in a canine stroke model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Qian-Qian; Lu, Shan-Shan; Xu, Xiao-Quan; Wu, Cheng-Jiang; Liu, Xing-Long; Liu, Sheng; Shi, Hai-Bin

    2017-08-01

    To evaluate the feasibility of intravoxel incoherent motion (IVIM) for the measurement of diffusion and perfusion parameters in hyperacute strokes. An embolic ischemic model was established with an autologous thrombus in 20 beagles. IVIM imaging was performed on a 3.0 Tesla platform at 4.5 h and 6 h after embolization. Ten b values from 0 to 900 s/mm 2 were fitted with a bi-exponential model to extract perfusion fraction f, diffusion coefficient D, and pseudo-diffusion coefficient D*. Additionally, the apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) was calculated using the mono-exponential model with all the b values. Statistical analysis was performed using the pairwise Student's t test and Pearson's correlation test. A significant decrease in f and D was observed in the ischemic area when compared with those in the contralateral side at 4.5 h and 6 h after embolization (P < 0.01 for all). No significant difference was observed in D* between the two sides at either time point (P = 0.086 and 0.336, respectively). In the stroke area, f at 6 h was significantly lower than that at 4.5 h (P = 0.016). A significantly positive correlation was detected between ADC and D in both stroke and contralateral sides at 4.5 h and 6 h (P < 0.001 for both). Significant correlation between ADC and f was only observed in the contralateral side at 4.5 h and 6 h (P = 0.019 and 0.021, respectively). IVIM imaging could simultaneously evaluate the diffusion and microvascular perfusion characteristics in hyperacute strokes. 2 Technical Efficacy: Stage 1 J. MAGN. RESON. IMAGING 2017;46:550-556. © 2016 International Society for Magnetic Resonance in Medicine.

  1. Initial study of sediment antagonism and characteristics of silver nanoparticle-coated biliary stents in an experimental animal model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tian Y

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Yigeng Tian,1,* Mingfeng Xia,2,* Shuai Zhang,3 Zhen Fu,4 Qingbin Wen,2 Feng Liu,4 Zongzhen Xu,4 Tao Li,4 Hu Tian4 1Department of Physics, School of Physics and Technology, University of Jinan, Jinan, Shandong, People’s Republic of China; 2Department of Surgery, Shandong University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Jinan, Shandong, People’s Republic of China; 3Department of General Surgery, Sixth People’s Hospital of Jinan, Jinan, Shandong, People’s Republic of China; 4Department of General Surgery, Shandong Provincial Qianfoshan Hospital, Shandong University, Jinan, Shandong, People’s Republic of China *These authors contributed equally to this work Objective: Plastic biliary stents used to relieve obstructive jaundice are frequently blocked by sediment, resulting in loss of drainage. We prepared stents coated with silver nanoparticles (AgNPs and compared their ability to resist sedimentation with Teflon stents in a beagle model of obstructive jaundice.Methods: AgNP-coated Teflon biliary stents were prepared by chemical oxidation–reduction and evaluated in an obstructive jaundice model that was produced by ligation of common bile duct (CBD; animals were randomized to two equal groups for placement of AgNP-coated or Teflon control stents. Liver function and inflammatory index were found to be similar in the two groups, and the obstruction was relieved. Stents were removed 21 days after insertion and observed by scanning and transmission electron microscopy. The AgNP coating was analyzed by energy dispersive X-ray analysis (EDXA, and the composition of sediment was assayed by Fourier-transform infrared (FTIR spectroscopy.Results: Electron microscopy revealed a black, closely adherent AgNP stent coating, with thicknesses of 1.5–6 µm. Sediment thickness and density were greater on Teflon than on AgNP-coated stents. EDXA confirmed the stability and integrity of the AgNP coating before and after in vivo animal experimentation. FTIR

  2. Numerical models of salt diapir formation by down-building : the role of sedimentation rate, viscosity contrast, initial amplitude and wavelength

    OpenAIRE

    Fuchs, Lukas; Schmeling, H.; Koyi, Hemin

    2011-01-01

    Formation of salt diapirs has been described to be due to upbuilding (i. e. Rayleigh-Taylor like instability of salt diapirs piercing through a denser sedimentary overburden) or syndepositional down-building process (i. e. the top of the salt diapir remains at the surface all the time). Here we systematically analyse this second end-member mechanism by numerical modelling. Four parameters are varied: sedimentation rate nu(sed), salt viscosity eta(salt), amplitude delta of the initial perturba...

  3. Using Collaborative Simulation Modeling to Develop a Web-Based Tool to Support Policy-Level Decision Making About Breast Cancer Screening Initiation Age

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elizabeth S. Burnside MD, MPH, MS

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Background: There are no publicly available tools designed specifically to assist policy makers to make informed decisions about the optimal ages of breast cancer screening initiation for different populations of US women. Objective: To use three established simulation models to develop a web-based tool called Mammo OUTPuT. Methods: The simulation models use the 1970 US birth cohort and common parameters for incidence, digital screening performance, and treatment effects. Outcomes include breast cancers diagnosed, breast cancer deaths averted, breast cancer mortality reduction, false-positive mammograms, benign biopsies, and overdiagnosis. The Mammo OUTPuT tool displays these outcomes for combinations of age at screening initiation (every year from 40 to 49, annual versus biennial interval, lifetime versus 10-year horizon, and breast density, compared to waiting to start biennial screening at age 50 and continuing to 74. The tool was piloted by decision makers (n = 16 who completed surveys. Results: The tool demonstrates that benefits in the 40s increase linearly with earlier initiation age, without a specific threshold age. Likewise, the harms of screening increase monotonically with earlier ages of initiation in the 40s. The tool also shows users how the balance of benefits and harms varies with breast density. Surveys revealed that 100% of users (16/16 liked the appearance of the site; 94% (15/16 found the tool helpful; and 94% (15/16 would recommend the tool to a colleague. Conclusions: This tool synthesizes a representative subset of the most current CISNET (Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network simulation model outcomes to provide policy makers with quantitative data on the benefits and harms of screening women in the 40s. Ultimate decisions will depend on program goals, the population served, and informed judgments about the weight of benefits and harms.

  4. Introducing ICT into Irish school system: an exploratory study of the impact of innovative technology models on schools participating in the schools IT 2000 SIP initiative

    OpenAIRE

    Judge, Miriam

    2002-01-01

    The purpose of this doctoral dissertation is to explore the key learning experiences of schools involved in introducing innovative technology models to support the introduction of ICT (information and communications technology), into the Irish school system. The background to the research is the ‘Schools IT 2000’ initiative that was launched by the Irish Department of Education and Science (DES) in 1998. The Schools Integration Project (SIP), administered by the National Centre for Techno...

  5. STRUCTURAL MODELLING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tea Ya. Danelyan

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The article states the general principles of structural modeling in aspect of the theory of systems and gives the interrelation with other types of modeling to adjust them to the main directions of modeling. Mathematical methods of structural modeling, in particular method of expert evaluations are considered.

  6. (HEV) Model

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Moatez Billah HARIDA

    The use of the simulator “Hybrid Electrical Vehicle Model Balances Fidelity and. Speed (HEVMBFS)” and the global control strategy make it possible to achieve encouraging results. Key words: Series parallel hybrid vehicle - nonlinear model - linear model - Diesel engine - Engine modelling -. HEV simulator - Predictive ...

  7. Constitutive Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sales-Cruz, Mauricio; Piccolo, Chiara; Heitzig, Martina

    2011-01-01

    This chapter presents various types of constitutive models and their applications. There are 3 aspects dealt with in this chapter, namely: creation and solution of property models, the application of parameter estimation and finally application examples of constitutive models. A systematic...... procedure is introduced for the analysis and solution of property models. Models that capture and represent the temperature dependent behaviour of physical properties are introduced, as well as equation of state models (EOS) such as the SRK EOS. Modelling of liquid phase activity coefficients are also...

  8. Eye movement control in reading: accounting for initial fixation locations and refixations within the E-Z Reader model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reichle, E D; Rayner, K; Pollatsek, A

    1999-10-01

    Reilly and O'Regan (1998, Vision Research, 38, 303-317) used computer simulations to evaluate how well several different word-targeting strategies could account for results which show that the distributions of fixation locations in reading are systematically related to low-level oculomotor variables, such as saccade distance and launch site [McConkie, Kerr, Reddix & Zola, (1988). Vision Research, 28, 1107-1118]. Their simulation results suggested that fixation locations are primarily determined by word length information, and that the processing of language, such as the identification of words, plays only a minimal role in deciding where to move the eyes. This claim appears to be problematic for our model of eye movement control in reading, E-Z Reader [Rayner, Reichle & Pollatsek (1998). Eye movement control in reading: an overview and model. In G. Underwood, Eye guidance in reading and scene perception (pp. 243-268). Oxford, UK: Elsevier; Reichle, Pollatsek, Fisher & Rayner (1998). Psychological Review, 105, 125-157], because it assumes that lexical access is the engine that drives the eyes forward during reading. However, we show that a newer version of E-Z Reader which still assumes that lexical access is the engine driving eye movements also predicts the locations of fixations and within-word refixations, and therefore provides a viable framework for understanding how both linguistic and oculomotor variables affect eye movements in reading.

  9. An initial study on modeling the global thermal and fast reactor fuel cycle mass flow using Vensim

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brinton, Samuel

    2008-01-01

    This study concentrated on modeling the construction and decommissioning rates of five major facilities comprising the nuclear fuel cycle: (1) current LWRs with a 60-year service life, (2) new LWRs burning MOX fuel, (3) new LWRs to replace units in the current fleet, (4) new FRs to be added to the fleet, and (5) new spent fuel reprocessing facilities. This is a mass flow mode starting from uranium ore and following it to spent forms. The visual dynamic modeling program Vensim was used to create a system of equations and variables to track the mass flows from enrichment, fabrication, burn-up, and the back-end of the fuel cycle. The scenarios considered provide estimates of the uranium ore requirements, quantities of LLW and HLW production, and the number of reprocessing facilities necessary to reduce recently reported levels of spent fuel inventory. Preliminary results indicate that the entire national spent fuel inventory produced in the next 100 years can be reprocessed with a reprocessing plant built every 11 years (small capacity) or even as low as every 23 years (large capacity). (authors)

  10. Effects of Initial Drivers and Land Use on WRF Modeling for Near-Surface Fields and Atmospheric Boundary Layer over the Northeastern Tibetan Plateau

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Junhua Yang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available To improve the simulation performance of mesoscale models in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau, two reanalysis initial datasets (NCEP FNL and ERA-Interim and two MODIS (Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer land-use datasets (from 2001 and 2010 are used in WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting modeling. The model can reproduce the variations of 2 m temperature (T2 and 2 m relative humidity (RH2, but T2 is overestimated and RH2 is underestimated in the control experiment. After using the new initial drive and land use data, the simulation precision in T2 is improved by the correction of overestimated net energy flux at surface and the RH2 is improved due to the lower T2 and larger soil moisture. Due to systematic bias in WRF modeling for wind speed, we design another experiment that includes the Jimenez subgrid-scale orography scheme, which reduces the frequency of low wind speed and increases the frequency of high wind speed and that is more consistent with the observation. Meanwhile, the new drive and land-use data lead to lower boundary layer height and influence the potential temperature and wind speed in both the lower atmosphere and the upper layer, while the impact on water vapor mixing ratio is primarily concentrated in the lower atmosphere.

  11. Modeling and analysis framework for core damage propagation during flow-blockage-initiated accidents in the advanced neutron source reactor at Oak Ridge National Laboratory

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, S.H.; Taleyarkhan, R.P.; Navarro-Valenti, S.; Georgevich, V. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States)

    1995-09-01

    This paper describes modeling and analysis to evaluate the extent of core damage during flow blockage events in the Advanced Neutron Source (ANS) reactor planned to be built at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). Damage propagation is postulated to occur from thermal conduction between damaged and undamaged plates due to direct thermal contact. Such direct thermal contact may occur because of fuel plate swelling during fission product vapor release or plate buckling. Complex phenomena of damage propagation were modeled using a one-dimensional heat transfer model. A scoping study was conducted to learn what parameters are important for core damage propagation, and to obtain initial estimates of core melt mass for addressing recriticality and steam explosion events. The study included investigating the effect of the plate contact area, the convective heat transfer coefficient, thermal conductivity upon fuel swelling, and the initial temperature of the plate being contacted by the damaged plate. Also, the side support plates were modeled to account for their effects on damage propagation. The results provide useful insights into how various uncertain parameters affect damage propagation.

  12. The Depression Initiative. Description of a collaborative care model for depression and of the factors influencing its implementation in the primary care setting in the Netherlands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fransina J. de Jong

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available Background: In the Depression Initiative, a promising collaborative care model for depression that was developed in the US was adapted for implementation in the Netherlands. Aim: Description of a collaborative care model for major depressive disorder (MDD and of the factors influencing its implementation in the primary care setting in the Netherlands. Data sources: Data collected during the preparation phase of the CC:DIP trial of the Depression Initiative, literature, policy documents, information sheets from professional associations. Results: Factors facilitating the implementation of the collaborative care model are continuous supervision of the care managers by the consultant psychiatrist and the trainers, a supportive web-based tracking system and the new reimbursement system that allows for introduction of a mental health care-practice nurse (MHC-PN in the general practices and coverage of the treatment costs. Impeding factors might be the relatively high percentage of solo-primary care practices, the small percentage of professionals that are located in the same building, unfamiliarity with the concept of collaboration as required for collaborative care, the reimbursement system that demands regular negotiations between each health care provider and the insurance companies and the reluctance general practitioners might feel to expand their responsibility for their depressed patients. Conclusion: Implementation of the collaborative care model in the Netherlands requires extensive training and supervision on micro level, facilitation of reimbursement on meso- and macro level and structural effort to change the treatment culture for chronic mental disorders in the primary care setting.

  13. The Depression Initiative. Description of a collaborative care model for depression and of the factors influencing its implementation in the primary care setting in the Netherlands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Jong, Fransina J; van Steenbergen-Weijenburg, Kirsten M; Huijbregts, Klaas M L; Vlasveld, Moniek C; Van Marwijk, Harm W J; Beekman, Aartjan T F; van der Feltz-Cornelis, Christina M

    2009-06-15

    In the Depression Initiative, a promising collaborative care model for depression that was developed in the US was adapted for implementation in the Netherlands. Description of a collaborative care model for major depressive disorder (MDD) and of the factors influencing its implementation in the primary care setting in the Netherlands. Data collected during the preparation phase of the CC:DIP trial of the Depression Initiative, literature, policy documents, information sheets from professional associations. Factors facilitating the implementation of the collaborative care model are continuous supervision of the care managers by the consultant psychiatrist and the trainers, a supportive web-based tracking system and the new reimbursement system that allows for introduction of a mental health care-practice nurse (MHC-PN) in the general practices and coverage of the treatment costs. Impeding factors might be the relatively high percentage of solo-primary care practices, the small percentage of professionals that are located in the same building, unfamiliarity with the concept of collaboration as required for collaborative care, the reimbursement system that demands regular negotiations between each health care provider and the insurance companies and the reluctance general practitioners might feel to expand their responsibility for their depressed patients. Implementation of the collaborative care model in the Netherlands requires extensive training and supervision on micro level, facilitation of reimbursement on meso- and macro level and structural effort to change the treatment culture for chronic mental disorders in the primary care setting.

  14. Model theory

    CERN Document Server

    Chang, CC

    2012-01-01

    Model theory deals with a branch of mathematical logic showing connections between a formal language and its interpretations or models. This is the first and most successful textbook in logical model theory. Extensively updated and corrected in 1990 to accommodate developments in model theoretic methods - including classification theory and nonstandard analysis - the third edition added entirely new sections, exercises, and references. Each chapter introduces an individual method and discusses specific applications. Basic methods of constructing models include constants, elementary chains, Sko

  15. Elucidation of Altered Pathways in Tumor-Initiating Cells of Triple-Negative Breast Cancer: A Useful Cell Model System for Drug Screening.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christensen, Anne G; Ehmsen, Sidse; Terp, Mikkel G; Batra, Richa; Alcaraz, Nicolas; Baumbach, Jan; Noer, Julie B; Moreira, José; Leth-Larsen, Rikke; Larsen, Martin R; Ditzel, Henrik J

    2017-08-01

    A limited number of cancer cells within a tumor are thought to have self-renewing and tumor-initiating capabilities that produce the remaining cancer cells in a heterogeneous tumor mass. Elucidation of central pathways preferentially used by tumor-initiating cells/cancer stem cells (CSCs) may allow their exploitation as potential cancer therapy targets. We used single cell cloning to isolate and characterize four isogenic cell clones from a triple-negative breast cancer cell line; two exhibited mesenchymal-like and two epithelial-like characteristics. Within these pairs, one, but not the other, resulted in tumors in immunodeficient NOD/Shi-scid/IL-2 Rγ null mice and efficiently formed mammospheres. Quantitative proteomics and phosphoproteomics were used to map signaling pathways associated with the tumor-initiating ability. Signaling associated with apoptosis was suppressed in tumor-initiating versus nontumorigenic counterparts with pro-apoptotic proteins, such as Bcl2-associated agonist of cell death (BAD), FAS-associated death domain protein (FADD), and myeloid differentiation primary response protein (MYD88), downregulated in tumor-initiating epithelial-like cells. Functional studies confirmed significantly lower apoptosis in tumor-initiating versus nontumorigenic cells. Moreover, central pathways, including β-catenin and nuclear factor kappa-light-chain-enhancer of activated B cells (NF-κB)-related signaling, exhibited increased activation in the tumor-initiating cells. To evaluate the CSC model as a tool for drug screening, we assessed the effect of separately blocking NF-κB and Wnt/β-catenin signaling and found markedly reduced mammosphere formation, particularly for tumor-initiating cells. Similar reduction was also observed using patient-derived primary cancer cells. Furthermore, blocking NF-κB signaling in mice transplanted with tumor-initiating cells significantly reduced tumor outgrowth. Our study demonstrates that suppressed apoptosis, activation

  16. The Initial Training of Geography Teachers at the University of Porto: Model and Training, Practices and Representations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martins, Felisbela

    2015-01-01

    Since 2008, the initial training of Geography teachers in Portugal was combined with the initial training of History teachers. This forced union has led to implications in the practices and teaching of geography. This paper intends to explore the thoughts and actions of the student teachers at the Faculty of Arts and Humanities, University of…

  17. Traffic & safety statewide model and GIS modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-07-01

    Several steps have been taken over the past two years to advance the Utah Department of Transportation (UDOT) safety initiative. Previous research projects began the development of a hierarchical Bayesian model to analyze crashes on Utah roadways. De...

  18. Basement Fill Model Evaluation of Maximum Radionuclide Concentrations for Initial Suite of Radionuclides. Zion Station Restoration Project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sullivan, Terry

    2014-01-01

    ZionSolutions is in the process of decommissioning the Zion Nuclear Power Plant in order to establish a new water treatment plant. There is some residual radioactive particles from the plant which need to be brought down to levels so an individual who receives water from the new treatment plant does not receive a radioactive dose in excess of 25 mrem/y -1 as specified in 10 CFR 20 Subpart E. The objectives of this report are: (a) To present a simplified conceptual model for release from the buildings with residual subsurface structures that can be used to provide an upper bound on radionuclide concentrations in the fill material and the water in the interstitial spaces of the fill. (b) Provide maximum water concentrations and the corresponding amount of mass sorbed to the solid fill material that could occur in each building for use by ZSRP in selecting ROCs for detailed dose assessment calculations.

  19. Galactic models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buchler, J.R.; Gottesman, S.T.; Hunter, J.H. Jr.

    1990-01-01

    Various papers on galactic models are presented. Individual topics addressed include: observations relating to galactic mass distributions; the structure of the Galaxy; mass distribution in spiral galaxies; rotation curves of spiral galaxies in clusters; grand design, multiple arm, and flocculent spiral galaxies; observations of barred spirals; ringed galaxies; elliptical galaxies; the modal approach to models of galaxies; self-consistent models of spiral galaxies; dynamical models of spiral galaxies; N-body models. Also discussed are: two-component models of galaxies; simulations of cloudy, gaseous galactic disks; numerical experiments on the stability of hot stellar systems; instabilities of slowly rotating galaxies; spiral structure as a recurrent instability; model gas flows in selected barred spiral galaxies; bar shapes and orbital stochasticity; three-dimensional models; polar ring galaxies; dynamical models of polar rings

  20. Implications of the choice of land surface model schemes and reanalyzes data for initialization in model simulations with WRF to characterize atmospheric dynamics and the effect on black carbon concentrations into the Eurasian Arctic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cavazos Guerra, C.; Lauer, A.; Herber, A. B.; Butler, T. M.

    2016-12-01

    Realistic simulation of physical and dynamical processes happening in the Arctic surface and atmosphere, and the interacting feedbacks of these processes is still a challenge for Arctic climate modelers. This is critical when further studies involving for the example transport mechanisms and pathways of pollutants from lower latitudes into the Arctic rely on the efficiency of the model to represent atmospheric circulation, especially given the complexity of the Arctic atmosphere. In this work we evaluate model performance of the Weather Research and Forecast model (WRF) according to the choice of two land surface model schemes (Noah and NoahMP) and two reanalyzes data for initialization to create lateral boundary conditions (ERA-interim and ASR) to simulate surface and atmosphere dynamics including the location and displacement of the polar dome and other features characterizing atmospheric circulation associated to sea ice maxima/minima extent within the Eurasian Arctic conformed by the Nordic countries in Northern Europe and part of West Russia. Sensitivity analyses include simulations at 15km horizontal resolution within a period of five years from 2008 to 2012. The WRF model simulations are evaluated against surface meteorological data from automated weather stations and atmospheric profiles from radiosondes. Results show that the model is able to reproduce the main features of the atmospheric dynamics and vertical structure of the Arctic atmosphere reasonably well. The model is, however, sensitive to the choice of the reanalyses used for initialization and land surface scheme with significant biases in the simulated description of surface meteorology and winds, moisture and temperature profiles. The best choice of physical parameterization is then used in the WRF with coupled chemistry (WRF-Chem) to simulate BC concentrations in several case studies within the analyzed period in our domain and assess the role of modeled circulation in concentrations of BC

  1. Overview of experiment design and comparison of models participating in phase 1 of the SPARC Quasi-Biennial Oscillation initiative (QBOi

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Butchart

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available The Stratosphere–troposphere Processes And their Role in Climate (SPARC Quasi-Biennial Oscillation initiative (QBOi aims to improve the fidelity of tropical stratospheric variability in general circulation and Earth system models by conducting coordinated numerical experiments and analysis. In the equatorial stratosphere, the QBO is the most conspicuous mode of variability. Five coordinated experiments have therefore been designed to (i evaluate and compare the verisimilitude of modelled QBOs under present-day conditions, (ii identify robustness (or alternatively the spread and uncertainty in the simulated QBO response to commonly imposed changes in model climate forcings (e.g. a doubling of CO2 amounts, and (iii examine model dependence of QBO predictability. This paper documents these experiments and the recommended output diagnostics. The rationale behind the experimental design and choice of diagnostics is presented. To facilitate scientific interpretation of the results in other planned QBOi studies, consistent descriptions of the models performing each experiment set are given, with those aspects particularly relevant for simulating the QBO tabulated for easy comparison.

  2. Overview of experiment design and comparison of models participating in phase 1 of the SPARC Quasi-Biennial Oscillation initiative (QBOi)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Butchart, Neal; Anstey, James A.; Hamilton, Kevin; Osprey, Scott; McLandress, Charles; Bushell, Andrew C.; Kawatani, Yoshio; Kim, Young-Ha; Lott, Francois; Scinocca, John; Stockdale, Timothy N.; Andrews, Martin; Bellprat, Omar; Braesicke, Peter; Cagnazzo, Chiara; Chen, Chih-Chieh; Chun, Hye-Yeong; Dobrynin, Mikhail; Garcia, Rolando R.; Garcia-Serrano, Javier; Gray, Lesley J.; Holt, Laura; Kerzenmacher, Tobias; Naoe, Hiroaki; Pohlmann, Holger; Richter, Jadwiga H.; Scaife, Adam A.; Schenzinger, Verena; Serva, Federico; Versick, Stefan; Watanabe, Shingo; Yoshida, Kohei; Yukimoto, Seiji

    2018-03-01

    The Stratosphere-troposphere Processes And their Role in Climate (SPARC) Quasi-Biennial Oscillation initiative (QBOi) aims to improve the fidelity of tropical stratospheric variability in general circulation and Earth system models by conducting coordinated numerical experiments and analysis. In the equatorial stratosphere, the QBO is the most conspicuous mode of variability. Five coordinated experiments have therefore been designed to (i) evaluate and compare the verisimilitude of modelled QBOs under present-day conditions, (ii) identify robustness (or alternatively the spread and uncertainty) in the simulated QBO response to commonly imposed changes in model climate forcings (e.g. a doubling of CO2 amounts), and (iii) examine model dependence of QBO predictability. This paper documents these experiments and the recommended output diagnostics. The rationale behind the experimental design and choice of diagnostics is presented. To facilitate scientific interpretation of the results in other planned QBOi studies, consistent descriptions of the models performing each experiment set are given, with those aspects particularly relevant for simulating the QBO tabulated for easy comparison.

  3. The effects of magmatic redistribution of heat producing elements on the lunar mantle evolution inferred from numerical models that start from various initial states

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ogawa, Masaki

    2018-02-01

    To discuss how redistribution of heat producing elements (HPEs) by magmatism affects the lunar mantle evolution depending on the initial condition, I present two-dimensional numerical models of magmatism in convecting mantle internally heated by incompatible HPEs. Mantle convection occurs beneath a stagnant lithosphere that inhibits recycling of the HPE-enriched crustal materials to the mantle. Magmatism is modeled by a permeable flow of magma generated by decompression melting through matrix. Migrating magma transports heat, mass, and HPEs. When the deep mantle is initially hot with the temperature TD around 1800 K at its base, magmatism starts from the beginning of the calculated history to extract HPEs from the mantle. The mantle is monotonously cooled, and magmatism ceases within 2 Gyr, accordingly. When the deep mantle is initially colder with TD around 1100 K, HPEs stay in the deep mantle for a longer time to let the planet be first heated up and then cooled only slightly. If, in addition, there is an HPE-enriched domain in the shallow mantle at the beginning of the calculation, magma continues ascending to the surface through the domain for more than 3 Gyr. The low TD models fit in with the thermal and magmatic history of the Moon inferred from spacecraft observations, although it is not clear if the models are consistent with the current understanding of the origin of the Moon and its magnetic field. Redistribution of HPEs by magmatism is a crucial factor that must be taken into account in future studies of the evolution of the Moon.

  4. O8.10A MODEL FOR RESEARCH INITIATIVES FOR RARE CANCERS: THE COLLABORATIVE EPENDYMOMA RESEARCH NETWORK (CERN)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armstrong, T.S.; Aldape, K.; Gajjar, A.; Haynes, C.; Hirakawa, D.; Gilbertson, R.; Gilbert, M.R.

    2014-01-01

    Ependymoma represents less than 5% of adult central nervous system (CNS) tumors and a higher percentage of pediatric CNS tumors, but it remains an orphan disease. The majority of the laboratory-based research and clinical trials have been conducted in the pediatric setting, a reflection of the relative incidence and funding opportunities. CERN, created in 2006, was designed to establish a collaborative effort between laboratory and clinical research and pediatric and adult investigators. The organization of CERN is based on integration and collaboration among five projects. Project 1 contains the clinical trials network encompassing both adult and pediatric centers. This group has completed 2 clinical trials with more underway. Project 2 is focused on molecular classification of human ependymoma tumor tissues and also contains the tumor repository which has now collected over 600 fully clinically annotated CNS ependymomas from adults and children. Project 3 is focused on drug discovery utilizing robust laboratory models of ependymoma to perform high throughput screening of drug libraries, then taking promising agents through extensive preclinical testing including monitoring of drug delivery to tumor using state of the art microdialysis. Project 4 contains the basic research efforts evaluating the molecular pathogenesis of ependymoma and has successfully translated these findings by generating the first mouse models of ependymoma that are employed in preclinical drug development in Project 3. Project 5 studies patient outcomes, including the incorporation of these measures in the clinical trials. This project also contains an online Ependymoma Outcomes survey, collecting data on the consequences of the disease and its treatment. These projects have been highly successful and collaborative. For example, the serial measurement of symptom burden (Project 5) has greatly contributed to the evaluation of treatment efficacy of a clinical trial (Project 1) and

  5. Pinatubo Emulation in Multiple Models (POEMs): co-ordinated experiments in the ISA-MIP model intercomparison activity component of the SPARC Stratospheric Sulphur and it's Role in Climate initiative (SSiRC)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Lindsay; Mann, Graham; Carslaw, Ken; Toohey, Matthew; Aquila, Valentina

    2016-04-01

    The World Climate Research Program's SPARC initiative has a new international activity "Stratospheric Sulphur and its Role in Climate" (SSiRC) to better understand changes in stratospheric aerosol and precursor gaseous sulphur species. One component of SSiRC involves an intercomparison "ISA-MIP" of composition-climate models that simulate the stratospheric aerosol layer interactively. Within PoEMS each modelling group will run a "perturbed physics ensemble" (PPE) of interactive stratospheric aerosol (ISA) simulations of the Pinatubo eruption, varying several uncertain parameters associated with the eruption's SO2 emissions and model processes. A powerful new technique to quantify and attribute sources of uncertainty in complex global models is described by Lee et al. (2011, ACP). The analysis uses Gaussian emulation to derive a probability density function (pdf) of predicted quantities, essentially interpolating the PPE results in multi-dimensional parameter space. Once trained on the ensemble, a Monte Carlo simulation with the fast Gaussian emulator enabling a full variance-based sensitivity analysis. The approach has already been used effectively by Carslaw et al., (2013, Nature) to quantify the uncertainty in the cloud albedo effect forcing from a 3D global aerosol-microphysics model allowing to compare the sensitivy of different predicted quantities to uncertainties in natural and anthropogenic emissions types, and structural parameters in the models. Within ISA-MIP, each group will carry out a PPE of runs, with the subsequent analysis with the emulator assessing the uncertainty in the volcanic forcings predicted by each model. In this poster presentation we will give an outline of the "PoEMS" analysis, describing the uncertain parameters to be varied and the relevance to further understanding differences identified in previous international stratospheric aerosol assessments.

  6. [Molecular mechanisms of protein biosynthesis initiation--biochemical and biomedical implications of a new model of translation enhanced by the RNA hypoxia response element (rHRE)].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Master, Adam; Nauman, Alicja

    2014-01-01

    Translation initiation is a key rate-limiting step in cellular protein synthesis. A cap-dependent initiation is the most effective mechanism of the translation. However, some physiological (mitosis) and pathological (oxidative stress) processes may switch the classic mechanism to an alternative one that is regulated by an mRNA element such as IRES, uORF, IRE, CPE, DICE, AURE or CITE. A recently discovered mechanism of RNA hypoxia response element (rHRE)-dependent translation initiation, may change the view of oxygen-regulated translation and give a new insight into unexplained biochemical processes. Hypoxia is one of the better-known factors that may trigger an alternative mechanism of the translation initiation. Temporal events of oxygen deficiency within tissues and organs may activate processes such as angiogenesis, myogenesis, regeneration, wound healing, and may promote an adaptive response in cardiovascular and neurodegenerative diseases. On the other hand, growth of solid tumors may be accompanied by cyclic hypoxia, allowing for synthesis of proteins required for further progression of cancer cells. This paper provides a review of current knowledge on translational control in the context of alternative models of translation initiation.

  7. Surgery and global public health: the UNC-Malawi surgical initiative as a model for sustainable collaboration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qureshi, Javeria S; Samuel, Jonathan; Lee, Clara; Cairns, Bruce; Shores, Carol; Charles, Anthony G

    2011-01-01

    Addressing global health disparities in the developing world gained prominence during the first decade of the twenty-first century. The HIV/AIDS epidemic triggered much interest in and funding for health improvement and mortality reduction in low- and middle-income nations, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. Alliances between U.S. academic medical centers and African nations were created through the departments of internal medicine and infectious disease. However, the importance of addressing surgical disease as part of global public health is becoming recognized as part of international health development efforts. We propose a novel model to reduce the global burden of surgical diseases in resource poor settings by incorporating a sustained institutional surgical presence with our residency training experience by placing a senior surgical resident to provide continuity of care and facilitate training of local personnel. We present the experiences of the University of North Carolina (UNC) Department of Surgery as part of the UNC Project in Malawi as an example of this innovative approach.

  8. Model Breaking Points Conceptualized

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vig, Rozy; Murray, Eileen; Star, Jon R.

    2014-01-01

    Current curriculum initiatives (e.g., National Governors Association Center for Best Practices and Council of Chief State School Officers 2010) advocate that models be used in the mathematics classroom. However, despite their apparent promise, there comes a point when models break, a point in the mathematical problem space where the model cannot,…

  9. Interface models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ravn, Anders P.; Staunstrup, Jørgen

    1994-01-01

    This paper proposes a model for specifying interfaces between concurrently executing modules of a computing system. The model does not prescribe a particular type of communication protocol and is aimed at describing interfaces between both software and hardware modules or a combination of the two....... The model describes both functional and timing properties of an interface...

  10. Application of model of incremental haemodialysis, based on residual renal function, at the initiation of renal replacement therapy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José L. Merino

    2017-01-01

    Conclusions: Incremental HD treatment, with twice-weekly HD, may be an alternative in selected patients. This approach can largely preserve residual renal function at least for the first year. Although this pattern probably is not applicable to all patients starting RRT, it can and should be an initial alternative to consider.

  11. Exploring Models of Team Teaching in Initial Foreign/Second Language Teacher Education: A Study in Situated Collaboration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barahona, Malba

    2017-01-01

    The demonstrable potential of team teaching as a productive mechanism for developing collaborative teacher learning is now broadly understood in the field of teacher education. However, there is less evidence of the use of such collaborative teaching as a means of strengthening initial foreign/second language teacher education. This paper reports…

  12. Submillisievert CT using model-based iterative reconstruction with lung-specific setting: An initial phantom study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hata, Akinori; Yanagawa, Masahiro; Honda, Osamu; Gyobu, Tomoko; Ueda, Ken; Tomiyama, Noriyuki [Osaka University Graduate School of Medicine, Department of Diagnostic and Interventional Radiology, Suita, Osaka (Japan)

    2016-12-15

    To assess image quality of filtered back-projection (FBP) and model-based iterative reconstruction (MBIR) with a conventional setting and a new lung-specific setting on submillisievert CT. A lung phantom with artificial nodules was scanned with 10 mA at 120 kVp and 80 kVp (0.14 mSv and 0.05 mSv, respectively); images were reconstructed using FBP and MBIR with conventional setting (MBIR{sub Stnd}) and lung-specific settings (MBIR{sub RP20/Tx} and MBIR{sub RP20}). Three observers subjectively scored overall image quality and image findings on a 5-point scale (1 = worst, 5 = best) compared with reference standard images (50 mA-FBP at 120, 100, 80 kVp). Image noise was measured objectively. MBIR{sub RP20/Tx} performed significantly better than MBIR{sub Stnd} for overall image quality in 80-kVp images (p < 0.01), blurring of the border between lung and chest wall in 120p-kVp images (p < 0.05) and the ventral area of 80-kVp images (p < 0.001), and clarity of small vessels in the ventral area of 80-kVp images (p = 0.037). At 120 kVp, 10 mA-MBIR{sub RP20} and 10 mA-MBIR{sub RP20/Tx} showed similar performance to 50 mA-FBP. MBIR{sub Stnd} was better for noise reduction. Except for blurring in 120 kVp-MBIR{sub Stnd}, MBIRs performed better than FBP. Although a conventional setting was advantageous in noise reduction, a lung-specific setting can provide more appropriate image quality, even on submillisievert CT. (orig.)

  13. Hydrological models are mediating models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Babel, L. V.; Karssenberg, D.

    2013-08-01

    Despite the increasing role of models in hydrological research and decision-making processes, only few accounts of the nature and function of models exist in hydrology. Earlier considerations have traditionally been conducted while making a clear distinction between physically-based and conceptual models. A new philosophical account, primarily based on the fields of physics and economics, transcends classes of models and scientific disciplines by considering models as "mediators" between theory and observations. The core of this approach lies in identifying models as (1) being only partially dependent on theory and observations, (2) integrating non-deductive elements in their construction, and (3) carrying the role of instruments of scientific enquiry about both theory and the world. The applicability of this approach to hydrology is evaluated in the present article. Three widely used hydrological models, each showing a different degree of apparent physicality, are confronted to the main characteristics of the "mediating models" concept. We argue that irrespective of their kind, hydrological models depend on both theory and observations, rather than merely on one of these two domains. Their construction is additionally involving a large number of miscellaneous, external ingredients, such as past experiences, model objectives, knowledge and preferences of the modeller, as well as hardware and software resources. We show that hydrological models convey the role of instruments in scientific practice by mediating between theory and the world. It results from these considerations that the traditional distinction between physically-based and conceptual models is necessarily too simplistic and refers at best to the stage at which theory and observations are steering model construction. The large variety of ingredients involved in model construction would deserve closer attention, for being rarely explicitly presented in peer-reviewed literature. We believe that devoting

  14. Time evolution of one-dimensional gapless models from a domain wall initial state: stochastic Loewner evolution continued?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Calabrese, Pasquale; Hagendorf, Christian; Doussal, Pierre Le

    2008-01-01

    We study the time evolution of quantum one-dimensional gapless systems evolving from initial states with a domain wall. We generalize the path integral imaginary time approach that together with boundary conformal field theory allows us to derive the time and space dependence of general correlation functions. The latter are explicitly obtained for the Ising universality class, and the typical behavior of one- and two-point functions is derived for the general case. Possible connections with the stochastic Loewner evolution are discussed and explicit results for one-point time dependent averages are obtained for generic κ for boundary conditions corresponding to stochastic Loewner evolution. We use this set of results to predict the time evolution of the entanglement entropy and obtain the universal constant shift due to the presence of a domain wall in the initial state

  15. Model simulation studies to clarify the effect on saccadic eye movements of initial condition velocities set by the Vestibular Ocular Reflex (VOR)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nam, M. H.; Winters, J. M.; Stark, L.

    1981-01-01

    Voluntary active head rotations produced vestibulo-ocular reflex eye movements (VOR) with the subject viewing a fixation target. When this target jumped, the size of the refixation saccades were a function of the ongoing initial velocity of the eye. Saccades made against the VOR were larger in magnitude. Simulation of a reciprocally innervated model eye movement provided results comparable to the experimental data. Most of the experimental effect appeared to be due to linear summation for saccades of 5 and 10 degree magnitude. For small saccades of 2.5 degrees, peripheral nonlinear interaction of state variables in the neuromuscular plant also played a role as proven by comparable behavior in the simulated model with known controller signals.

  16. Why we need a large-scale open metadata initiative in health informatics - a vision paper on open data models for clinical phenotypes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dugas, Martin

    2013-01-01

    Clinical phenotypes are very complex and not well described. For instance, more than 100.000 biomedical concepts are needed to describe clinical properties of patients. At present, information systems dealing with clinical phenotype data are based on secret, heterogeneous and incompatible data models. This is the root cause for the well-known grand challenge of semantic interoperability in healthcare: data exchange and analysis of medical information systems has major limitations. This problem slows down medical progressand wastes time of health care professionals. A large-scale open metadata initiative can foster exchange, discussion and consensus regarding data models for clinical phenotypes. This would be an important contribution to improve information systems in healthcare and to solve the grand challenge of semantic interoperability.

  17. Validation of a model for predicting smear-positive active pulmonary tuberculosis in patients with initial acid-fast bacilli smear-negative sputum

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yeh, Jun-Jun [Department of Chest Medicine, Section of Thoracic Imaging, Ditmanson Medical Foundation Chia-Yi Christian Hospital, Chiayi City (China); Chia Nan University of Pharmacy and Science, Tainan (China); Meiho University, Pingtung (China); Pingtung Christian Hospital, Pingtung (China); Heng Chun Christian Hospital, Pingtung (China)

    2018-01-15

    The objective of this study was to develop a predictive model for final smear-positive (SP) active pulmonary tuberculosis (aPTB) in patients with initial negative acid fast bacilli (AFB) sputum smears (iSN-SP-aPTB) based on high-resolution computed tomography (HRCT). Eighty (126, 21) patients of iSN-SP-aPTB and 402 (459, 876) patients of non-initial positive acid fast bacilli (non-iSP) pulmonary disease without iSN-SP-aPTB were included in a derivation (validation, prospective) cohort. HRCT characteristics were analysed, and multivariable regression and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was performed to develop a score predictive of iSN-SP-aPTB. The derivation cohort showed clusters of nodules/mass of the right upper lobe or left upper lobe were independent predictors of iSN-SP-aPTB, while bronchiectasis in the right middle lobe or left lingual lobe were negatively associated with iSN-SP-aPTB. A predictive score for iSN-SP-aPTB based on these findings was tested in the validation and prospective cohorts. With an ideal cut-off score = 1, the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value of the prediction model were 87.5% (90%, 90.5%), 99% (97.1%, 98.4%), 94.6% (81.3%, 57.5%), and 97.6% (97%, 99.8%) in the derivation (validation, prospective) cohorts, respectively. The model may help identify iSN-SP-aPTB among patients with non-iSP pulmonary diseases. circle Smear-positive active pulmonary tuberculosis that is initial smear-negative (iSN-SP-aPTB) is infectious. (orig.)

  18. The meta-leadership summit for preparedness initiative: an innovative model to advance public health preparedness and response.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sobelson, Robyn K; Young, Andrea C; Marcus, Leonard J; Dorn, Barry C; Neslund, Verla S; McNulty, Eric J

    2013-12-01

    This article reports on the design, evaluation framework, and results from the Meta-Leadership Summit for Preparedness Initiative. The Meta-Leadership Summit for Preparedness was a 5-year initiative based on the premise that national preparedness and emergency response is not solely the responsibility of government. From 2006 to 2011, 36 Meta-Leadership Summits were delivered in communities across the country. Summits were customized, 10-hour leadership development, networking, and community action planning events. They included participation from targeted federal, state, local, nonprofit/philanthropic, and private sector leaders who are directly involved in decision making during a major community or state-wide emergency. A total of 4,971 government, nonprofit, and business leaders attended Meta-Leadership Summits; distribution of attendees by sector was balanced. Ninety-three percent of respondents reported the summit was a valuable use of time, 91% reported the overall quality as "good" or "outstanding," and 91% would recommend the summit to their colleagues. In addition, approximately 6 months after attending a summit, 80% of respondents reported that they had used meta-leadership concepts or principles. Of these, 93% reported that using meta-leadership concepts or principles had made a positive difference for them and their organizations. The Meta-Leadership Summit for Preparedness Initiative was a value-added opportunity for communities, providing the venue for learning the concepts and practice of meta-leadership, multisector collaboration, and resource sharing with the intent of substantively improving preparedness, response, and recovery efforts.

  19. ICRF modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Phillips, C.K.

    1985-12-01

    This lecture provides a survey of the methods used to model fast magnetosonic wave coupling, propagation, and absorption in tokamaks. The validity and limitations of three distinct types of modelling codes, which will be contrasted, include discrete models which utilize ray tracing techniques, approximate continuous field models based on a parabolic approximation of the wave equation, and full field models derived using finite difference techniques. Inclusion of mode conversion effects in these models and modification of the minority distribution function will also be discussed. The lecture will conclude with a presentation of time-dependent global transport simulations of ICRF-heated tokamak discharges obtained in conjunction with the ICRF modelling codes. 52 refs., 15 figs

  20. Spectrum of perturbations arising in a nonsingular model of the Universe with the initial de Sitter stage and the anisotropy of the relic radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Starobinskij, A.A.

    1983-01-01

    Spectrum of primary adiabatic perturbations and gravitational waves formed in the proposed earlier by the author nonsingular cosmological model with the initial quantum de Sitter stage generated by gravitational vacuum polarization is calculated. The spectrum of gravitational waves appears to be flat, the spectrum of adiabatic perturbations is close to the flat one. The large-scale anisotropy of the temperature T of the relic electromagnetic radiation due to these fluctuations is found. It is shown that the most promising way to detect the anisotropy in the case of a flat perturbation spectrum is the investigation of correlations of ΔT/T at the angles of 5 deg - 10 deg

  1. Determination optimum technologists and models of selection of children on the initial stage of long-term improvement (on an example rowed on kayaks and canoe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matviyenko I.S.

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available The results of introduction of pedagogical technology of selection of children are lighted up. Optimum technology and model of selection is certain on the stage of initial preparation. Expedient is bringing in of maximal amount of children of optimum age to the system of school sport. Directions of transition of the selected contingent of capable children are rotined in the system child-youth sport. Specific gravity of training time a trainer is in a position to spare teaching a rational technique rowed, to forming of base of functional preparedness.

  2. Eukaryotic translation initiation factor 5A inhibition alters physiopathology and immune responses in a “humanized” transgenic mouse model of type 1 diabetes

    OpenAIRE

    Imam, Shahnawaz; Mirmira, Raghavendra G.; Jaume, Juan C.

    2014-01-01

    Therapeutic options for treatment of type 1 diabetes (T1D) are still missing. New avenues for immune modulation need to be developed. Here we attempted at altering the diabetes outcome of our humanized model of T1D by inhibiting translation-initiation factor eIF5A hypusination in vivo. Double-transgenic (DQ8-GAD65) mice were immunized with adenoviral vectors carrying GAD65 for diabetes induction. Animals were subsequently treated with deoxyhypusine synthase (DHS) inhibitor GC7 and monitored f...

  3. Deterministic estimation of hydrological thresholds for shallow landslide initiation and slope stability models: case study from the Somma-Vesuvius area of southern Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baum, Rex L.; Godt, Jonathan W.; De Vita, P.; Napolitano, E.

    2012-01-01

    Rainfall-induced debris flows involving ash-fall pyroclastic deposits that cover steep mountain slopes surrounding the Somma-Vesuvius volcano are natural events and a source of risk for urban settlements located at footslopes in the area. This paper describes experimental methods and modelling results of shallow landslides that occurred on 5–6 May 1998 in selected areas of the Sarno Mountain Range. Stratigraphical surveys carried out in initiation areas show that ash-fall pyroclastic deposits are discontinuously distributed along slopes, with total thicknesses that vary from a maximum value on slopes inclined less than 30° to near zero thickness on slopes inclined greater than 50°. This distribution of cover thickness influences the stratigraphical setting and leads to downward thinning and the pinching out of pyroclastic horizons. Three engineering geological settings were identified, in which most of the initial landslides that triggered debris flows occurred in May 1998 can be classified as (1) knickpoints, characterised by a downward progressive thinning of the pyroclastic mantle; (2) rocky scarps that abruptly interrupt the pyroclastic mantle; and (3) road cuts in the pyroclastic mantle that occur in a critical range of slope angle. Detailed topographic and stratigraphical surveys coupled with field and laboratory tests were conducted to define geometric, hydraulic and mechanical features of pyroclastic soil horizons in the source areas and to carry out hydrological numerical modelling of hillslopes under different rainfall conditions. The slope stability for three representative cases was calculated considering the real sliding surface of the initial landslides and the pore pressures during the infiltration process. The hydrological modelling of hillslopes demonstrated localised increase of pore pressure, up to saturation, where pyroclastic horizons with higher hydraulic conductivity pinch out and the thickness of pyroclastic mantle reduces or is

  4. Dynamic Contrast-Enhanced Magnetic Resonance Imaging Using Pharmacokinetic Modeling: Initial Experience in Patients With Early Arthritis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maijer, Karen I; van der Leij, Christiaan; de Hair, Maria J H; Tas, Sander W; Maas, Mario; Gerlag, Daniëlle M; Tak, Paul P; Lavini, Cristina

    2016-03-01

    Analysis of dynamic contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (DCE-MRI) using pharmacokinetic modeling (PKM) provides quantitative measures that mirror microvessel integrity and can be used as an objective marker of the level of synovial inflammation. The aim of this study was to investigate the PKM parameters K(trans) , kep , and ve in a prospective cohort of disease-modifying antirheumatic drug (DMARD)-naive patients with early arthritis, and to validate the results by assessing their correlation with the number of synovial endothelial cells (ECs). Forty-seven patients with early arthritis (arthritis duration arthritis, 22 with unclassified arthritis, 6 with spondyloarthritis [SpA], and 5 with other arthritides) were included. At baseline, DCE-MRI was performed on an inflamed knee joint of each patient. These images were used to calculate the K(trans) (volume transfer constant between the plasma and extracellular extravascular space [EES]), the kep (transfer constant between the EES and plasma), and the ve (fractional volume of the EES). Second, markers of disease activity were collected. Finally, vascularity was evaluated by immunohistochemical analysis of synovial tissue samples obtained from the inflamed knee joints, using antibodies to detect von Willebrand factor (vWF), a marker of ECs. The 3 PKM parameters differed significantly between diagnostic groups at baseline, with the highest K(trans) value being observed in patients with SpA (median 0.050/minute, interquartile range [IQR] 0.041- 0.069). Furthermore, the K(trans) , kep , and ve values correlated significantly with markers of disease activity. Finally, the PKM parameters K(trans) and kep , but not ve , correlated significantly with synovial expression of vWF (r = 0.647, P = 0.004 for K(trans) ; r = 0.614, P = 0.007 for kep ; r = 0.398, P = 0.102 for ve ). These results suggest that the K(trans) , kep , and ve can be used to detect synovial inflammation in patients with

  5. Conceptual and practical challenges for implementing the communities of practice model on a national scale - a Canadian cancer control initiative

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Browman George P

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Cancer program delivery, like the rest of health care in Canada, faces two ongoing challenges: to coordinate a pan-Canadian approach across complex provincial jurisdictions, and to facilitate the rapid translation of knowledge into clinical practice. Communities of practice, or CoPs, which have been described by Etienne Wenger as a collaborative learning platform, represent a promising solution to these challenges because they rely on bottom-up rather than top-down social structures for integrating knowledge and practice across regions and agencies. The communities of practice model has been realized in the corporate (e.g., Royal Dutch Shell, Xerox, IBM, etc and development (e.g., World Bank sectors, but its application to health care is relatively new. The Canadian Partnership Against Cancer (CPAC is exploring the potential of Wenger's concept in the Canadian health care context. This paper provides an in-depth analysis of Wenger's concept with a focus on its applicability to the health care sector. Discussion Empirical studies and social science theory are used to examine the utility of Wenger's concept. Its value lies in emphasizing learning from peers and through practice in settings where innovation is valued. Yet the communities of practice concept lacks conceptual clarity because Wenger defines it so broadly and sidelines issues of decision making within CoPs. We consider the implications of his broad definition to establishing an informed nomenclature around this specific type of collaborative group. The CoP Project under CPAC and communities of practice in Canadian health care are discussed. Summary The use of communities of practice in Canadian health care has been shown in some instances to facilitate quality improvements, encourage buy in among participants, and generate high levels of satisfaction with clinical leadership and knowledge translation among participating physicians. Despite these individual success

  6. Modelling in Business Model design

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Simonse, W.L.

    2013-01-01

    It appears that business model design might not always produce a design or model as the expected result. However when designers are involved, a visual model or artefact is produced. To assist strategic managers in thinking about how they can act, the designers challenge is to combine strategy and

  7. Population age and initial density in a patchy environment affect the occurrence of abrupt transitions in a birth-and-death model of Taylor's law

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Jiang; DeAngelis, Donald L.; Zhang, B.; Cohen, J.E.

    2014-01-01

    Taylor's power law describes an empirical relationship between the mean and variance of population densities in field data, in which the variance varies as a power, b, of the mean. Most studies report values of b varying between 1 and 2. However, Cohen (2014a) showed recently that smooth changes in environmental conditions in a model can lead to an abrupt, infinite change in b. To understand what factors can influence the occurrence of an abrupt change in b, we used both mathematical analysis and Monte Carlo samples from a model in which populations of the same species settled on patches, and each population followed independently a stochastic linear birth-and-death process. We investigated how the power relationship responds to a smooth change of population growth rate, under different sampling strategies, initial population density, and population age. We showed analytically that, if the initial populations differ only in density, and samples are taken from all patches after the same time period following a major invasion event, Taylor's law holds with exponent b=1, regardless of the population growth rate. If samples are taken at different times from patches that have the same initial population densities, we calculate an abrupt shift of b, as predicted by Cohen (2014a). The loss of linearity between log variance and log mean is a leading indicator of the abrupt shift. If both initial population densities and population ages vary among patches, estimates of b lie between 1 and 2, as in most empirical studies. But the value of b declines to ~1 as the system approaches a critical point. Our results can inform empirical studies that might be designed to demonstrate an abrupt shift in Taylor's law.

  8. The Meta-Leadership Summit for Preparedness Initiative: An Innovative Model to Advance Public Health Preparedness and Response

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sobelson, Robyn K.; Young, Andrea C.; Marcus, Leonard J.; Dorn, Barry C.; Neslund, Verla S.; McNulty, Eric J.

    2017-01-01

    This article reports on the design, evaluation framework, and results from the Meta-Leadership Summit for Preparedness Initiative. The Meta-Leadership Summit for Preparedness was a 5-year initiative based on the premise that national preparedness and emergency response is not solely the responsibility of government. From 2006 to 2011, 36 Meta-Leadership Summits were delivered in communities across the country. Summits were customized, 10-hour leadership development, networking, and community action planning events. They included participation from targeted federal, state, local, nonprofit/philanthropic, and private sector leaders who are directly involved in decision making during a major community or state-wide emergency. A total of 4,971 government, nonprofit, and business leaders attended Meta-Leadership Summits; distribution of attendees by sector was balanced. Ninety-three percent of respondents reported the summit was a valuable use of time, 91% reported the overall quality as “good” or “outstanding,” and 91% would recommend the summit to their colleagues. In addition, approximately 6 months after attending a summit, 80% of respondents reported that they had used meta-leadership concepts or principles. Of these, 93% reported that using meta-leadership concepts or principles had made a positive difference for them and their organizations. The Meta-Leadership Summit for Preparedness Initiative was a value-added opportunity for communities, providing the venue for learning the concepts and practice of meta-leadership, multisector collaboration, and resource sharing with the intent of substantively improving preparedness, response, and recovery efforts. PMID:24251597

  9. Initial Attempts of Development and Characterization of an In Vitro Blood Brain Barrier Model Derived from Human Pluripotent Stem Cells

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Goldeman, Charlotte; Saaby, Lasse; Hall, Vanessa Jane

    observed for several days after seeding by measuring the trans-endothelial electrical resistance (TEER). Initial pilot studies have shown a significant difference between stem cells grown as a mono culture and stem cells grown in co-culture with rat astrocytes. The stem cell line WTSli024-A had...... configurations (mono culture, non-contact co-culture and contact co-culture) with primary rat astrocytes to induce barrier-like properties. Endothelial cell media supplemented with retinoic acid were then applied to the cells to ensure selective expansion of BECs. The different culture configurations were...

  10. Trait-Based Cue Utilization and Initial Skill Acquisition: Implications for Models of the Progression to Expertise

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mark eWiggins

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The primary aim of this study was to examine the role of cue utilization in the initial acquisition of psychomotor skills. Two experiments were undertaken, the first of which examined the relationship between cue utilization typologies and levels of accuracy following four simulated, power-off landing trials in a light aircraft simulator. The results indicated that higher levels of cue utilization were associated with a greater level of landing accuracy following training exposure. In the second study, participants’ levels of cue utilization were assessed prior to two 15 minute periods during which they practiced take-offs and landings using a simulated Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV. Consistent with Study 1, the outcomes of Study 2 revealed a statistically significant relationship between levels of cue utilization and the number of trials to criterion on the take-off task, and the proportion of successful trials during both take-off and landing. In combination, the results suggest that the capacity for the acquisition and the subsequent utilization of cues is an important predictor of skill acquisition, particularly during the initial stages of the process. The implications for theory and applied practice are discussed.

  11. Modelling condensation and the initiation of chondrogenesis in chick wing bud mesenchymal cells levitated in an ultrasound trap

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    GO Edwards

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Chick wing bud mesenchymal cell micromass culture allows the study of a variety of developmental mechanisms, ranging from cell adhesion to pattern formation. However, many cells remain in contact with an artificial substratum, which can influence cytoskeletal organisation and differentiation. An ultrasound standing wave trap facilitates the rapid formation of 2-D monolayer cell aggregates with a defined zero time-point, independent from contact with a surface. Aggregates formed rapidly (within 2 min and intercellular membrane spreading occurred at points of contact. This was associated with an increase in peripheral F-actin within 10 min of cell-cell contact and aggregates had obtained physical integrity by 30 min. The chondrogenic transcription factor Sox9 could be detected in cells in the ultrasound trap within 3 h (ultrasound exposure alone was not responsible for this effect. This approach facilitates the study of the initial cell-cell interactions that occur during condensation formation and demonstrates that a combination of cell shape and cytoskeletal organisation is required for the initiation and maintenance of a differentiated phenotype, which is lost when these phenomena are influenced by contact with an artificial substrate.

  12. Turbulence modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Laurence, D.

    1997-01-01

    This paper is an introduction course in modelling turbulent thermohydraulics, aimed at computational fluid dynamics users. No specific knowledge other than the Navier Stokes equations is required beforehand. Chapter I (which those who are not beginners can skip) provides basic ideas on turbulence physics and is taken up in a textbook prepared by the teaching team of the ENPC (Benque, Viollet). Chapter II describes turbulent viscosity type modelling and the 2k-ε two equations model. It provides details of the channel flow case and the boundary conditions. Chapter III describes the 'standard' (R ij -ε) Reynolds tensions transport model and introduces more recent models called 'feasible'. A second paper deals with heat transfer and the effects of gravity, and returns to the Reynolds stress transport model. (author)

  13. Mathematical modelling

    CERN Document Server

    2016-01-01

    This book provides a thorough introduction to the challenge of applying mathematics in real-world scenarios. Modelling tasks rarely involve well-defined categories, and they often require multidisciplinary input from mathematics, physics, computer sciences, or engineering. In keeping with this spirit of modelling, the book includes a wealth of cross-references between the chapters and frequently points to the real-world context. The book combines classical approaches to modelling with novel areas such as soft computing methods, inverse problems, and model uncertainty. Attention is also paid to the interaction between models, data and the use of mathematical software. The reader will find a broad selection of theoretical tools for practicing industrial mathematics, including the analysis of continuum models, probabilistic and discrete phenomena, and asymptotic and sensitivity analysis.

  14. Modelling Overview

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Lars Bjørn; Vesterager, Johan

    sharing many of the characteristics of a virtual enterprise. This extended enterprise will have the following characteristics: The extended enterprise is focused on satisfying the current customer requirement so that it has a limited life expectancy, but should be capable of being recreated to deal....... One or more units from beyond the network may complement the extended enterprise. The common reference model for this extended enterprise will utilise GERAM (Generalised Enterprise Reference Architecture and Methodology) to provide an architectural framework for the modelling carried out within......This report provides an overview of the existing models of global manufacturing, describes the required modelling views and associated methods and identifies tools, which can provide support for this modelling activity.The model adopted for global manufacturing is that of an extended enterprise...

  15. Mathematical modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Blomhøj, Morten

    2004-01-01

    modelling, however, can be seen as a practice of teaching that place the relation between real life and mathematics into the centre of teaching and learning mathematics, and this is relevant at all levels. Modelling activities may motivate the learning process and help the learner to establish cognitive......Developing competences for setting up, analysing and criticising mathematical models are normally seen as relevant only from and above upper secondary level. The general belief among teachers is that modelling activities presuppose conceptual understanding of the mathematics involved. Mathematical...... roots for the construction of important mathematical concepts. In addition competences for setting up, analysing and criticising modelling processes and the possible use of models is a formative aim in this own right for mathematics teaching in general education. The paper presents a theoretical...

  16. Event Modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bækgaard, Lars

    2001-01-01

    The purpose of this chapter is to discuss conceptual event modeling within a context of information modeling. Traditionally, information modeling has been concerned with the modeling of a universe of discourse in terms of information structures. However, most interesting universes of discourse...... are dynamic and we present a modeling approach that can be used to model such dynamics. We characterize events as both information objects and change agents (Bækgaard 1997). When viewed as information objects events are phenomena that can be observed and described. For example, borrow events in a library can...... be characterized by their occurrence times and the participating books and borrowers. When we characterize events as information objects we focus on concepts like information structures. When viewed as change agents events are phenomena that trigger change. For example, when borrow event occurs books are moved...

  17. Boreal summer sub-seasonal variability of the South Asian monsoon in the Met Office GloSea5 initialized coupled model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jayakumar, A.; Turner, A. G.; Johnson, S. J.; Rajagopal, E. N.; Mohandas, Saji; Mitra, A. K.

    2017-09-01

    Boreal summer sub-seasonal variability in the Asian monsoon, otherwise known as the monsoon intra-seasonal oscillation (MISO), is one of the dominant modes of intraseasonal variability in the tropics, with large impacts on total monsoon rainfall and India's agricultural production. However, our understanding of the mechanisms involved in MISO is incomplete and its simulation in various numerical models is often flawed. In this study, we focus on the objective evaluation of the fidelity of MISO simulation in the Met Office Global Seasonal forecast system version 5 (GloSea5), an initialized coupled model. We analyze a series of nine-member hindcasts from GloSea5 over 1996-2009 during the peak monsoon period (July-August) over the South-Asian monsoon domain focusing on aspects of the time-mean background state and air-sea interaction processes pertinent to MISO. Dominant modes during this period are evident in power spectrum analysis, but propagation and evolution characteristics of the MISO are not realistic. We find that simulated air-sea interactions in the central Indian Ocean are not supportive of MISO initiation in that region, likely a result of the low surface wind variance there. As a consequence, the expected near-quadrature phase relationship between SST and convection is not represented properly over the central equatorial Indian Ocean, and northward propagation from the equator is poorly simulated. This may reinforce the equatorial rainfall mean state bias in GloSea5.

  18. Model : making

    OpenAIRE

    Bottle, Neil

    2013-01-01

    The Model : making exhibition was curated by Brian Kennedy in collaboration with Allies & Morrison in September 2013. For the London Design Festival, the Model : making exhibition looked at the increased use of new technologies by both craft-makers and architectural model makers. In both practices traditional ways of making by hand are increasingly being combined with the latest technologies of digital imaging, laser cutting, CNC machining and 3D printing. This exhibition focussed on ...

  19. Spherical models

    CERN Document Server

    Wenninger, Magnus J

    2012-01-01

    Well-illustrated, practical approach to creating star-faced spherical forms that can serve as basic structures for geodesic domes. Complete instructions for making models from circular bands of paper with just a ruler and compass. Discusses tessellation, or tiling, and how to make spherical models of the semiregular solids and concludes with a discussion of the relationship of polyhedra to geodesic domes and directions for building models of domes. "". . . very pleasant reading."" - Science. 1979 edition.

  20. Growth and Mortality Outcomes for Different Antiretroviral Therapy Initiation Criteria in Children Ages 1-5 Years: A Causal Modeling Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schomaker, Michael; Davies, Mary-Ann; Malateste, Karen; Renner, Lorna; Sawry, Shobna; N'Gbeche, Sylvie; Technau, Karl-Günter; Eboua, François; Tanser, Frank; Sygnaté-Sy, Haby; Phiri, Sam; Amorissani-Folquet, Madeleine; Cox, Vivian; Koueta, Fla; Chimbete, Cleophas; Lawson-Evi, Annette; Giddy, Janet; Amani-Bosse, Clarisse; Wood, Robin; Egger, Matthias; Leroy, Valeriane

    2016-03-01

    There is limited evidence regarding the optimal timing of initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART) in children. We conducted a causal modeling analysis in children ages 1-5 years from the International Epidemiologic Databases to Evaluate AIDS West/Southern-Africa collaboration to determine growth and mortality differences related to different CD4-based treatment initiation criteria, age groups, and regions. ART-naïve children of ages 12-59 months at enrollment with at least one visit before ART initiation and one follow-up visit were included. We estimated 3-year growth and cumulative mortality from the start of follow-up for different CD4 criteria using g-computation. About one quarter of the 5,826 included children was from West Africa (24.6%).The median (first; third quartile) CD4% at the first visit was 16% (11%; 23%), the median weight-for-age z-scores and height-for-age z-scores were -1.5 (-2.7; -0.6) and -2.5 (-3.5; -1.5), respectively. Estimated cumulative mortality was higher overall, and growth was slower, when initiating ART at lower CD4 thresholds. After 3 years of follow-up, the estimated mortality difference between starting ART routinely irrespective of CD4 count and starting ART if either CD4 count <750 cells/mm³ or CD4% <25% was 0.2% (95% CI = -0.2%; 0.3%), and the difference in the mean height-for-age z-scores of those who survived was -0.02 (95% CI = -0.04; 0.01). Younger children ages 1-2 and children in West Africa had worse outcomes. Our results demonstrate that earlier treatment initiation yields overall better growth and mortality outcomes, although we could not show any differences in outcomes between immediate ART and delaying until CD4 count/% falls below 750/25%.

  1. Mortality associated with delays between clinic entry and ART initiation in resource-limited settings: results of a transition-state model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoffmann, Christopher J; Lewis, James J; Dowdy, David W; Fielding, Katherine L; Grant, Alison D; Martinson, Neil A; Churchyard, Gavin J; Chaisson, Richard E

    2013-05-01

    To estimate the mortality impact of delay in antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation from the time of entry into care. A state-transition Markov process model. This technique allows for assessing mortality before and after ART initiation associated with delays in ART initiation among a general population of ART-eligible patients without conducting a randomized trial. We used patient-level data from 3 South African cohorts to determine transition probabilities for pre-ART CD4 count changes and pre-ART and on-ART mortality. For each parameter, we generated probabilities and distributions for Monte Carlo simulations with 1-week cycles to estimate mortality 52 weeks from clinic entry. We estimated an increase in mortality from 11.0% to 14.7% (relative increase of 34%) with a 10-week delay in ART for patients entering care with our pre-ART cohort CD4 distribution. When we examined low CD4 ranges, the relative increase in mortality delays remained similar; however, the absolute increase in mortality rose. For example, among patients entering with CD4 count 50-99 cells per cubic millimeter, 12-month mortality increased from 13.3% with no delay compared with 17.0% with a 10-week delay and 22.9% with a 6-month delay. Delays in ART initiation, common in routine HIV programs, can lead to important increases in mortality. Prompt ART initiation for patients entering clinical care and eligible for ART, especially those with lower CD4 counts, could be a relatively low-cost approach with a potential marked impact on mortality.

  2. Mortality associated with delays between clinic entry and ART initiation in resource-limited-settings: results of a transition-state model

    Science.gov (United States)

    HOFFMANN, Christopher J; LEWIS, James J; DOWDY, David W; FIELDING, Katherine L; GRANT, Alison D; MARTINSON, Neil A; CHURCHYARD, Gavin J; CHAISSON, Richard E

    2013-01-01

    Objective Estimate the mortality impact of delay in antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation from the time of entry-into-care. Design A state-transition Markov process model. This technique allows for assessing mortality before and after ART initiation associated with delays in ART initiation among a general population of ART eligible patients without conducting a randomized trial. Methods We used patient-level data from three South African cohorts to determine transition probabilities for pre-ART CD4 count changes and pre-ART and on-ART mortality. For each parameter we generated probabilities and distributions for Monte Carlo simulations with one week cycles to estimate mortality 52 weeks from clinic entry. Results We estimated an increase in mortality from 11.0% to 14.7% (relative increase of 34%) with a 10 week delay in ART for patients entering care with our pre-ART cohort CD4 distribution. When we examined low CD4 ranges, the relative increase in mortality delays remained similar; however, the absolute increase in mortality rose. For example, among patients entering with CD4 count 50–99 cells/mm3, 12 month mortality increased from 13.3% with no delay compared to 17.0% with a 10 week delay and 22.9% with a 6 month delay. Conclusions Delays in ART initiation, common in routine HIV programs, can lead to important increases in mortality. Prompt ART initiation for patients entering clinical care and eligible for ART, especially those with lower CD4 counts, could be a relatively low cost approach with a potential marked impact on mortality. PMID:23392457

  3. Global Carbon-and-Conservation Models, Global Eco-States? Ecuador’s Yasuní-ITT Initiative and Governance Implications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Conny Davidsen

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available The “global carbon age” marks a structural change far beyond the economic realms of implementing carbon trade, affecting the fabric of global environmental governance and its actors. Carbon trade and conservation in the Global South have taken on various forms, and climate change mitigation efforts in light of continued rainforest deforestation are scrambling to establish effective approaches. Ecuador’s Yasuní-ITT Initiative proposes a new global carbon-and-conservation model in the Ecuadorian Amazon that leaves oil reserves of the Yasuní Ishpingo Tambococha Tiputini (ITT oil fields underground, in exchange for international compensation payments that would be based on voluntary contributions of governments and nongovernmental actors in an international conservation partnership and trust fund under the auspices of the United Nations Development Programme. This model suggests far-reaching consequences, as it introduces new global scales for the sharing and management of environmental costs within a framework of neoliberal cost internalization. The analysis in this paper uses the concept of the “ecological state” (Duit, 2008 as a theoretical point of departure to examine the trans-scalar implications of such a carbon-and-conservation model on global governance structures toward a “global ecological state” (or global eco-state.

  4. Modeling Documents with Event Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Longhui Wang

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Currently deep learning has made great breakthroughs in visual and speech processing, mainly because it draws lessons from the hierarchical mode that brain deals with images and speech. In the field of NLP, a topic model is one of the important ways for modeling documents. Topic models are built on a generative model that clearly does not match the way humans write. In this paper, we propose Event Model, which is unsupervised and based on the language processing mechanism of neurolinguistics, to model documents. In Event Model, documents are descriptions of concrete or abstract events seen, heard, or sensed by people and words are objects in the events. Event Model has two stages: word learning and dimensionality reduction. Word learning is to learn semantics of words based on deep learning. Dimensionality reduction is the process that representing a document as a low dimensional vector by a linear mode that is completely different from topic models. Event Model achieves state-of-the-art results on document retrieval tasks.

  5. Gene Introgression in Weeds Depends on Initial Gene Location in the Crop:Brassica napus-Raphanus raphanistrumModel.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adamczyk-Chauvat, Katarzyna; Delaunay, Sabrina; Vannier, Anne; François, Caroline; Thomas, Gwenaëlle; Eber, Frédérique; Lodé, Maryse; Gilet, Marie; Huteau, Virginie; Morice, Jérôme; Nègre, Sylvie; Falentin, Cyril; Coriton, Olivier; Darmency, Henri; Alrustom, Bachar; Jenczewski, Eric; Rousseau-Gueutin, Mathieu; Chèvre, Anne-Marie

    2017-07-01

    The effect of gene location within a crop genome on its transfer to a weed genome remains an open question for gene flow assessment. To elucidate this question, we analyzed advanced generations of intergeneric hybrids, derived from an initial pollination of known oilseed rape varieties ( Brassica napus , AACC, 2 n  = 38) by a local population of wild radish ( Raphanus raphanistrum , RrRr, 2 n  = 18). After five generations of recurrent pollination, 307 G5 plants with a chromosome number similar to wild radish were genotyped using 105 B. napus specific markers well distributed along the chromosomes. They revealed that 49.8% of G5 plants carried at least one B. napus genomic region. According to the frequency of B. napus markers (0-28%), four classes were defined: Class 1 (near zero frequency), with 75 markers covering ∼70% of oilseed rape genome; Class 2 (low frequency), with 20 markers located on 11 genomic regions; Class 3 (high frequency), with eight markers on three genomic regions; and Class 4 (higher frequency), with two adjacent markers detected on A10. Therefore, some regions of the oilseed rape genome are more prone than others to be introgressed into wild radish. Inheritance and growth of plant progeny revealed that genomic regions of oilseed rape could be stably introduced into wild radish and variably impact the plant fitness (plant height and seed number). Our results pinpoint that novel technologies enabling the targeted insertion of transgenes should select genomic regions that are less likely to be introgressed into the weed genome, thereby reducing gene flow. Copyright © 2017 by the Genetics Society of America.

  6. WWTP Process Tank Modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Laursen, Jesper

    solution of the Navier-Stokes equations in a multiphase scheme. After a general introduction to the activated sludge tank as a system, the activated sludge tank model is gradually setup in separate stages. The individual sub-processes that are often occurring in activated sludge tanks are initially......-process models, the last part of the thesis, where the integrated process tank model is tested on three examples of activated sludge systems, is initiated. The three case studies are introduced with an increasing degree of model complexity. All three cases are take basis in Danish municipal wastewater treatment...... plants. The first case study involves the modeling of an activated sludge tank undergoing a special controlling strategy with the intention minimizing the sludge loading on the subsequent secondary settlers during storm events. The applied model is a two-phase model, where the sedimentation of sludge...

  7. Impaired action potential initiation in GABAergic interneurons causes hyperexcitable networks in an epileptic mouse model carrying a human Na(V)1.1 mutation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hedrich, Ulrike B S; Liautard, Camille; Kirschenbaum, Daniel; Pofahl, Martin; Lavigne, Jennifer; Liu, Yuanyuan; Theiss, Stephan; Slotta, Johannes; Escayg, Andrew; Dihné, Marcel; Beck, Heinz; Mantegazza, Massimo; Lerche, Holger

    2014-11-05

    Mutations in SCN1A and other ion channel genes can cause different epileptic phenotypes, but the precise mechanisms underlying the development of hyperexcitable networks are largely unknown. Here, we present a multisystem analysis of an SCN1A mouse model carrying the NaV1.1-R1648H mutation, which causes febrile seizures and epilepsy in humans. We found a ubiquitous hypoexcitability of interneurons in thalamus, cortex, and hippocampus, without detectable changes in excitatory neurons. Interestingly, somatic Na(+) channels in interneurons and persistent Na(+) currents were not significantly changed. Instead, the key mechanism of interneuron dysfunction was a deficit of action potential initiation at the axon initial segment that was identified by analyzing action potential firing. This deficit increased with the duration of firing periods, suggesting that increased slow inactivation, as recorded for recombinant mutated channels, could play an important role. The deficit in interneuron firing caused reduced action potential-driven inhibition of excitatory neurons as revealed by less frequent spontaneous but not miniature IPSCs. Multiple approaches indicated increased spontaneous thalamocortical and hippocampal network activity in mutant mice, as follows: (1) more synchronous and higher-frequency firing was recorded in primary neuronal cultures plated on multielectrode arrays; (2) thalamocortical slices examined by field potential recordings revealed spontaneous activities and pathological high-frequency oscillations; and (3) multineuron Ca(2+) imaging in hippocampal slices showed increased spontaneous neuronal activity. Thus, an interneuron-specific generalized defect in action potential initiation causes multisystem disinhibition and network hyperexcitability, which can well explain the occurrence of seizures in the studied mouse model and in patients carrying this mutation. Copyright © 2014 the authors 0270-6474/14/3414874-16$15.00/0.

  8. Examining the Impacts of High-Resolution Land Surface Initialization on Model Predictions of Convection in the Southeastern U.S.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Case, Jonathan L.; Kumar, Sujay V.; Santos, Pablo; Medlin, Jeffrey M.; Jedlovec, Gary J.

    2009-01-01

    One of the most challenging weather forecast problems in the southeastern U.S. is daily summertime pulse convection. During the summer, atmospheric flow and forcing are generally weak in this region; thus, convection typically initiates in response to local forcing along sea/lake breezes, and other discontinuities often related to horizontal gradients in surface heating rates. Numerical simulations of pulse convection usually have low skill, even in local predictions at