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Sample records for models incidence rates

  1. An SIRS model with a nonlinear incidence rate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jin Yu; Wang, Wendi; Xiao Shiwu

    2007-01-01

    The global dynamics of an SIRS model with a nonlinear incidence rate is investigated. We establish a threshold for a disease to be extinct or endemic, analyze the existence and asymptotic stability of equilibria, and verify the existence of bistable states, i.e., a stable disease free equilibrium and a stable endemic equilibrium or a stable limit cycle. In particular, we find that the model admits stability switches as a parameter changes. We also investigate the backward bifurcation, the Hopf bifurcation and Bogdanov-Takens bifurcation and obtain the Hopf bifurcation criteria and Bogdanov-Takens bifurcation curves, which are important for making strategies for controlling a disease

  2. Qualitative analysis of nonlinear incidence rate upon the behaviour of an epidemiological model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li Xiaogui.

    1988-12-01

    Two theorems concerning the solutions of the system of differential equations describing an epidemiological model with nonlinear incidence rate per infective individual are demonstrated. 2 refs, 1 fig

  3. Dynamic Behavior for an SIRS Model with Nonlinear Incidence Rate and Treatment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Junhong Li

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper considers an SIRS model with nonlinear incidence rate and treatment. It is assumed that susceptible and infectious individuals have constant immigration rates. We investigate the existence of equilibrium and prove the global asymptotical stable results of the endemic equilibrium. We then obtained that the model undergoes a Hopf bifurcation and existences a limit cycle. Some numerical simulations are given to illustrate the analytical results.

  4. Extinction and Ergodic Property of Stochastic SIS Epidemic Model with Nonlinear Incidence Rate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qixing Han

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available We investigate a stochastic SIS model with nonlinear incidence rate. We show that there exists a unique nonnegative solution to the system, and condition for the infectious individuals I(t to be extinct is given. Moreover, we prove that the system has ergodic property. Finally, computer simulations are carried out to verify our results.

  5. Decreasing incidence rates of bacteremia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Stig Lønberg; Pedersen, C; Jensen, T G

    2014-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Numerous studies have shown that the incidence rate of bacteremia has been increasing over time. However, few studies have distinguished between community-acquired, healthcare-associated and nosocomial bacteremia. METHODS: We conducted a population-based study among adults with first......-time bacteremia in Funen County, Denmark, during 2000-2008 (N = 7786). We reported mean and annual incidence rates (per 100,000 person-years), overall and by place of acquisition. Trends were estimated using a Poisson regression model. RESULTS: The overall incidence rate was 215.7, including 99.0 for community......-acquired, 50.0 for healthcare-associated and 66.7 for nosocomial bacteremia. During 2000-2008, the overall incidence rate decreased by 23.3% from 254.1 to 198.8 (3.3% annually, p incidence rate of community-acquired bacteremia decreased by 25.6% from 119.0 to 93.8 (3.7% annually, p

  6. A class of stochastic delayed SIR epidemic models with generalized nonlinear incidence rate and temporary immunity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Kuangang; Zhang, Yan; Gao, Shujing; Wei, Xiang

    2017-09-01

    A class of SIR epidemic model with generalized nonlinear incidence rate is presented in this paper. Temporary immunity and stochastic perturbation are also considered. The existence and uniqueness of the global positive solution is achieved. Sufficient conditions guaranteeing the extinction and persistence of the epidemic disease are established. Moreover, the threshold behavior is discussed, and the threshold value R0 is obtained. We show that if R0 extinct with probability one, whereas if R0 > 1, then the system remains permanent in the mean.

  7. Persistence and extinction for a class of stochastic SIS epidemic models with nonlinear incidence rate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teng, Zhidong; Wang, Lei

    2016-06-01

    In this paper, a class of stochastic SIS epidemic models with nonlinear incidence rate is investigated. It is shown that the extinction and persistence of the disease in probability are determined by a threshold value R˜0. That is, if R˜0 1 then disease is weak permanent with probability one. To obtain the permanence in the mean of the disease, a new quantity R̂0 is introduced, and it is proved that if R̂0 > 1 the disease is permanent in the mean with probability one. Furthermore, the numerical simulations are presented to illustrate some open problems given in Remarks 1-3 and 5 of this paper.

  8. Computational Modelling and Optimal Control of Ebola Virus Disease with non-Linear Incidence Rate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takaidza, I.; Makinde, O. D.; Okosun, O. K.

    2017-03-01

    The 2014 Ebola outbreak in West Africa has exposed the need to connect modellers and those with relevant data as pivotal to better understanding of how the disease spreads and quantifying the effects of possible interventions. In this paper, we model and analyse the Ebola virus disease with non-linear incidence rate. The epidemic model created is used to describe how the Ebola virus could potentially evolve in a population. We perform an uncertainty analysis of the basic reproductive number R 0 to quantify its sensitivity to other disease-related parameters. We also analyse the sensitivity of the final epidemic size to the time control interventions (education, vaccination, quarantine and safe handling) and provide the cost effective combination of the interventions.

  9. Spatial modeling of malaria incidence rates in Sistan and Baluchistanprovince, Islamic Republic of Iran

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salehi, M.; Mohammad, K.; Frahani, Mahmud M.; Zeraati, H.; Nourijelyani, K.; Zayeri, F.

    2008-01-01

    Objective was to identify the effect of environmental factors on malariarisk and to visualize spatial map of malaria standard incidence rates inSistan and Baluchistan province, Islamic Republic of Iran. In thiscross-sectional study, the data from 42, 162 registered new malaria casesfrom 21 March 2001 (Iran new year) to 21 of March 2006 were studied. Todescribe the statistical association between environmental factors andmalaria risk, a generalized linear mixed model approach was utilized. Inaddition, we used the second ordered stationary Kriging and a variogram todetermine the appropriate spatial correlation structure among the malariastandard incidence rates, and provide a proper malaria risk map in the areaunder study. The obtained results from the spatial modeling revealed thathumidity (p=0.0004), temperature (p<0.0001) and elevation (p<0.0001) werepositively, and precipitation (p=0.0029) was inversely correlated with themalaria risk. Moreover, the malaria risk amp based on the predicted valuesshowed that the south part of this province (Baluchistan) has a higher riskof malaria, compared to the northern area (Sistan). Since the effectiveenvironmental factors on malaria risk are out of human's control, the healthpolicy makers in this province should pay more attention to the areas withhigher temperature, elevation and humidity, as well as, low rainfalldistricts. (author)

  10. Chaos induced by breakup of waves in a spatial epidemic model with nonlinear incidence rate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sun, Gui-Quan; Jin, Zhen; Liu, Quan-Xing; Li, Li

    2008-01-01

    Spatial epidemiology is the study of spatial variation in disease risk or incidence, including the spatial patterns of the population. The spread of diseases in human populations can exhibit large scale patterns, underlining the need for spatially explicit approaches. In this paper, the spatiotemporal complexity of a spatial epidemic model with nonlinear incidence rate, which includes the behavioral changes and crowding effect of the infective individuals, is investigated. Based on both theoretical analysis and computer simulations, we find out when, under the parameters which can guarantee a stable limit cycle in the non-spatial model, spiral and target waves can emerge. Moreover, two different kinds of breakup of waves are shown. Specifically, the breakup of spiral waves is from the core and the breakup of target waves is from the far-field, and both kinds of waves become irregular patterns at last. Our results reveal that the spatiotemporal chaos is induced by the breakup of waves. The results obtained confirm that diffusion can form spiral waves, target waves or spatial chaos of high population density, which enrich the findings of spatiotemporal dynamics in the epidemic model

  11. Complex dynamics of an SEIR epidemic model with saturated incidence rate and treatment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khan, Muhammad Altaf; Khan, Yasir; Islam, Saeed

    2018-03-01

    In this paper, we describe the dynamics of an SEIR epidemic model with saturated incidence, treatment function, and optimal control. Rigorous mathematical results have been established for the model. The stability analysis of the model is investigated and found that the model is locally asymptotically stable when R0 1. The proposed model may possess a backward bifurcation. The optimal control problem is designed and obtained their necessary results. Numerical results have been presented for justification of theoretical results.

  12. Functional Time Series Models to Estimate Future Age-Specific Breast Cancer Incidence Rates for Women in Karachi, Pakistan

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Farah Yasmeen[1; Sidra Zaheer[2

    2014-01-01

    Background: Breast cancer is the most common female cancer in Pakistan. The incidence of breast cancer in Pakistan is about 2.5 times higher than that in the neighboring countries India and Iran. In Karachi, the most populated city of Pakistan, the age-standardized rate of breast cancer was 69.1 per 100,000 women during 1998-2002, which is the highest recorded rate in Asia. The carcinoma of breast in Pakistan is an enormous public health concern. In this study, we examined the recent trends of breast cancer incidence rates among the women in Karachi. Methods: We obtained the secondary data of breast cancer incidence from various hospitals. They included Jinnah Hospital, KIRAN (Karachi Institute of Radiotherapy and Nuclear Medicine), and Civil hospital, where the data were available for the years 2004-2011. A total of 5331 new cases of female breast cancer were registered during this period. We analyzed the data in 5-year age groups 15-19, 20-24, 25-29, 30-34, 35-39, 40-44, 45-49, 50-54, 55-59, 60-64, 65-69, 70-74, 75+. Nonparametric smoothing were used to obtained age-specific incidence curves, and then the curves are decomposed using principal components analysis to fit FTS (functional time series) model. We then used exponential smoothing statspace models to estimate the forecasts of incidence curve and construct prediction intervals. Results: The breast cancer incidence rates in Karachi increased with age for all available years. The rates increased monotonically and are relatively sharp with the age from 15 years to 50 years and then they show variability after the age of 50 years. 10-year forecasts for the female breast cancer incidence rates in Karachi show that the future rates are expected to remain stable for the age-groups 15-50 years, but they will increase for the females of 50-years and over. Hence in future, the newly diagnosed breast cancer cases in the older women in Karachi are expected to increase. Conclusion: Prediction of age

  13. Dynamics of synthetic drugs transmission model with psychological addicts and general incidence rate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Mingju; Liu, Sanyang; Xiang, Hong; Li, Jun

    2018-02-01

    Synthetic drugs are replacing traditional ones and becoming the main popular ones gradually, which have given rise to serious social issues in recent years. In this paper, a synthetic drugs transmission model with psychological addicts and general contact rate is proposed. The local and global stabilities are decided by the basic reproduction number R0. By analyzing the sensitivity of parameters, we obtain that controlling psychological addiction is better than drugs treatment. These results are verified by numerical simulations.

  14. Dynamical analysis of cigarette smoking model with a saturated incidence rate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeb, Anwar; Bano, Ayesha; Alzahrani, Ebraheem; Zaman, Gul

    2018-04-01

    In this paper, we consider a delayed smoking model in which the potential smokers are assumed to satisfy the logistic equation. We discuss the dynamical behavior of our proposed model in the form of Delayed Differential Equations (DDEs) and show conditions for asymptotic stability of the model in steady state. We also discuss the Hopf bifurcation analysis of considered model. Finally, we use the nonstandard finite difference (NSFD) scheme to show the results graphically with help of MATLAB.

  15. Prevalence Incidence Mixture Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    The R package and webtool fits Prevalence Incidence Mixture models to left-censored and irregularly interval-censored time to event data that is commonly found in screening cohorts assembled from electronic health records. Absolute and relative risk can be estimated for simple random sampling, and stratified sampling (the two approaches of superpopulation and a finite population are supported for target populations). Non-parametric (absolute risks only), semi-parametric, weakly-parametric (using B-splines), and some fully parametric (such as the logistic-Weibull) models are supported.

  16. Gallbladder Cancer Incidence and Death Rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Campaigns Initiatives Stay Informed Gallbladder Cancer Incidence and Death Rates Recommend on Facebook Tweet Share Compartir Quick ... a late stage with a poor outcome, often death. The journal Cancer Epidemiology, Biomarkers and Prevention published ...

  17. Prostate cancer incidence rates in Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chu, Lisa W; Ritchey, Jamie; Devesa, Susan S; Quraishi, Sabah M; Zhang, Hongmei; Hsing, Ann W

    2011-01-01

    African American men have among the highest prostate cancer incidence rates in the world yet rates among their African counterparts are unclear. In this paper, we compared reported rates among black men of Sub-Saharan African descent using data from the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) and the National Cancer Institute Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program for 1973-2007. Although population-based data in Africa are quite limited, the available data from IARC showed that rates among blacks were highest in the East (10.7-38.1 per 100,000 man-years, age-adjusted world standard) and lowest in the West (4.7-19.8). These rates were considerably lower than those of 80.0-195.3 observed among African Americans. Rates in Africa increased over time (1987-2002) and have been comparable to those for distant stage in African Americans. These patterns are likely due to differences between African and African American men in medical care access, screening, registry quality, genetic diversity, and Westernization. Incidence rates in Africa will likely continue to rise with improving economies and increasing Westernization, warranting the need for more high-quality population-based registration to monitor cancer incidence in Africa.

  18. Insecurity, polio vaccination rates, and polio incidence in northwest Pakistan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verma, Amol A; Jimenez, Marcia P; Tangermann, Rudolf H; Subramanian, S V; Razak, Fahad

    2018-02-13

    Pakistan is one of three countries in which endemic transmission of poliovirus has never been stopped. Insecurity is often cited but poorly studied as a barrier to eradicating polio. We analyzed routinely collected health data from 32 districts of northwest Pakistan and constructed an index of insecurity based on journalistic reports of the monthly number of deaths and injuries resulting from conflict-related security incidents. The primary outcomes were the monthly incidence of paralytic polio cases within each district between 2007 and 2014 and the polio vaccination percentage from 666 district-level vaccination campaigns between 2007 and 2009, targeting ∼5.7 million children. Multilevel Poisson regression controlling for time and district fixed effects was used to model the association between insecurity, vaccinator access, vaccination rates, and polio incidence. The number of children inaccessible to vaccinators was 19.7% greater (95% CI: 19.2-20.2%), and vaccination rates were 5.3% lower (95% CI: 5.2-5.3%) in "high-insecurity" campaigns compared with "secure" campaigns. The unadjusted mean vaccination rate was 96.3% (SD = 8.6) in secure campaigns and 88.3% (SD = 19.2) in high-insecurity campaigns. Polio incidence was 73.0% greater (95% CI: 30-131%) during high-insecurity months (unadjusted mean = 0.13 cases per million people, SD = 0.71) compared with secure months (unadjusted mean = 1.23 cases per million people, SD = 4.28). Thus, insecurity was associated with reduced vaccinator access, reduced polio vaccination, and increased polio incidence in northwest Pakistan. These findings demonstrate that insecurity is an important obstacle to global polio eradication.

  19. Shoulder Injury Incidence Rates in NASA Astronauts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laughlin, Mitzi S.; Murray, Jocelyn D.; Foy, Millennia; Wear, Mary L.; Van Baalen, Mary

    2014-01-01

    Evaluation of the astronaut shoulder injury rates began with an operational concern at the Neutral Buoyancy Laboratory (NBL) during Extravehicular Activity (EVA) training. An astronaut suffered a shoulder injury during an NBL training run and commented that it was possibly due to a hardware issue. During the subsequent investigation, questions arose regarding the rate of shoulder injuries in recent years and over the entire history of the astronaut corps.

  20. Incidence Rate and Distribution of Common Cancers among Iranian Children

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Salman Khazaei

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Geographic differences in the incidence of cancers may suggest unique genetic or environmental exposures that impact the risk of acquiring cancer. This research aims to determine the incidence rate and geographical distribution of common cancers among Iranian children. Methods: In this ecological study, we extracted data that pertained to the incidence rate of common cancers among children from reports by the National Registry of Cancer and Disease Control and Prevention in 2008. A map of the cancer incidence rates was designed by using geographic information system. Results:The most common cancer sites among children were the hematology system, brain and central nervous system, and lymph nodes. The central provinces had the lowest cancer incidences. Conclusion: The considerable variation in incidence of childhood cancers in Iran suggests a possible potential environmental risk factor or genetic background related to this increased risk among children.

  1. Influence of birth rates and transmission rates on the global seasonality of rotavirus incidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pitzer, Virginia E; Viboud, Cécile; Lopman, Ben A; Patel, Manish M; Parashar, Umesh D; Grenfell, Bryan T

    2011-11-07

    Rotavirus is a major cause of mortality in developing countries, and yet the dynamics of rotavirus in such settings are poorly understood. Rotavirus is typically less seasonal in the tropics, although recent observational studies have challenged the universality of this pattern. While numerous studies have examined the association between environmental factors and rotavirus incidence, here we explore the role of intrinsic factors. By fitting a mathematical model of rotavirus transmission dynamics to published age distributions of cases from 15 countries, we obtain estimates of local transmission rates. Model-predicted patterns of seasonal incidence based solely on differences in birth rates and transmission rates are significantly correlated with those observed (Spearman's ρ = 0.65, p birth rates and transmission rates and explore how vaccination may impact these patterns. Our results suggest that the relative lack of rotavirus seasonality observed in many tropical countries may be due to the high birth rates and transmission rates typical of developing countries rather than being driven primarily by environmental conditions. While vaccination is expected to decrease the overall burden of disease, it may increase the degree of seasonal variation in the incidence of rotavirus in some settings.

  2. Improving Agent Based Modeling of Critical Incidents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert Till

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available Agent Based Modeling (ABM is a powerful method that has been used to simulate potential critical incidents in the infrastructure and built environments. This paper will discuss the modeling of some critical incidents currently simulated using ABM and how they may be expanded and improved by using better physiological modeling, psychological modeling, modeling the actions of interveners, introducing Geographic Information Systems (GIS and open source models.

  3. Incidence and mortality rates of colorectal cancer in Malaysia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammad Radzi Abu Hassan

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVES This is the first study that estimates the incidence and mortality rate for colorectal cancer (CRC patients in Malaysia by sex and ethnicity. METHODS The 4,501 patients were selected from National Cancer Patient Registry-Colorectal Cancer data. Patient survival status was cross-checked with the National Registration Department. The age-standardised rate (ASR was calculated as the proportion of CRC cases (incidence and deaths (mortality from 2008 to 2013, weighted by the age structure of the population, as determined by the Department of Statistics Malaysia and the World Health Organization world standard population distribution. RESULTS The overall incidence rate for CRC was 21.32 cases per 100,000. Those of Chinese ethnicity had the highest CRC incidence (27.35, followed by the Malay (18.95, and Indian (17.55 ethnicities. The ASR incidence rate of CRC was 1.33 times higher among males than females (24.16 and 18.14 per 100,000, respectively. The 2011 (44.7% CRC deaths were recorded. The overall ASR of mortality was 9.79 cases, with 11.85 among the Chinese, followed by 9.56 among the Malays and 7.08 among the Indians. The ASR of mortality was 1.42 times higher among males (11.46 than females (8.05. CONCLUSIONS CRC incidence and mortality is higher in males than females. Individuals of Chinese ethnicity have the highest incidence of CRC, followed by the Malay and Indian ethnicities. The same trends were observed for the age-standardised mortality rate.

  4. Incidence and mortality rates of colorectal cancer in Malaysia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abu Hassan, Muhammad Radzi; Ismail, Ibtisam; Mohd Suan, Mohd Azri; Ahmad, Faizah; Wan Khazim, Wan Khamizar; Othman, Zabedah; Mat Said, Rosaida; Tan, Wei Leong; Mohammed, Siti Rahmah Noor Syahireen; Soelar, Shahrul Aiman; Nik Mustapha, Nik Raihan

    2016-01-01

    This is the first study that estimates the incidence and mortality rate for colorectal cancer (CRC) patients in Malaysia by sex and ethnicity. The 4,501 patients were selected from National Cancer Patient Registry-Colorectal Cancer data. Patient survival status was cross-checked with the National Registration Department. The age-standardised rate (ASR) was calculated as the proportion of CRC cases (incidence) and deaths (mortality) from 2008 to 2013, weighted by the age structure of the population, as determined by the Department of Statistics Malaysia and the World Health Organization world standard population distribution. The overall incidence rate for CRC was 21.32 cases per 100,000. Those of Chinese ethnicity had the highest CRC incidence (27.35), followed by the Malay (18.95), and Indian (17.55) ethnicities. The ASR incidence rate of CRC was 1.33 times higher among males than females (24.16 and 18.14 per 100,000, respectively). The 2011 (44.7%) CRC deaths were recorded. The overall ASR of mortality was 9.79 cases, with 11.85 among the Chinese, followed by 9.56 among the Malays and 7.08 among the Indians. The ASR of mortality was 1.42 times higher among males (11.46) than females (8.05). CRC incidence and mortality is higher in males than females. Individuals of Chinese ethnicity have the highest incidence of CRC, followed by the Malay and Indian ethnicities. The same trends were observed for the age-standardised mortality rate.

  5. Ciprofloxacin Resistance and Gonorrhea Incidence Rates in 17 Cities, United States, 1991–2006

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirkcaldy, Robert D.; Gift, Thomas L.; Owusu-Edusei, Kwame; Weinstock, Hillard S.

    2014-01-01

    Antimicrobial drug resistance can hinder gonorrhea prevention and control efforts. In this study, we analyzed historical ciprofloxacin resistance data and gonorrhea incidence data to examine the possible effect of antimicrobial drug resistance on gonorrhea incidence at the population level. We analyzed data from the Gonococcal Isolate Surveillance Project and city-level gonorrhea incidence rates from surveillance data for 17 cities during 1991–2006. We found a strong positive association between ciprofloxacin resistance and gonorrhea incidence rates at the city level during this period. Their association was consistent with predictions of mathematical models in which resistance to treatment can increase gonorrhea incidence rates through factors such as increased duration of infection. These findings highlight the possibility of future increases in gonorrhea incidence caused by emerging cephalosporin resistance. PMID:24655615

  6. Estimating cardiovascular disease incidence from prevalence: a spreadsheet based model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xue Feng Hu

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Disease incidence and prevalence are both core indicators of population health. Incidence is generally not as readily accessible as prevalence. Cohort studies and electronic health record systems are two major way to estimate disease incidence. The former is time-consuming and expensive; the latter is not available in most developing countries. Alternatively, mathematical models could be used to estimate disease incidence from prevalence. Methods We proposed and validated a method to estimate the age-standardized incidence of cardiovascular disease (CVD, with prevalence data from successive surveys and mortality data from empirical studies. Hallett’s method designed for estimating HIV infections in Africa was modified to estimate the incidence of myocardial infarction (MI in the U.S. population and incidence of heart disease in the Canadian population. Results Model-derived estimates were in close agreement with observed incidence from cohort studies and population surveillance systems. This method correctly captured the trend in incidence given sufficient waves of cross-sectional surveys. The estimated MI declining rate in the U.S. population was in accordance with the literature. This method was superior to closed cohort, in terms of the estimating trend of population cardiovascular disease incidence. Conclusion It is possible to estimate CVD incidence accurately at the population level from cross-sectional prevalence data. This method has the potential to be used for age- and sex- specific incidence estimates, or to be expanded to other chronic conditions.

  7. The incidence and multiplicity rates of keratinocyte cancers in Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pandeya, Nirmala; Olsen, Catherine M; Whiteman, David C

    2017-10-16

    To assess the incidence and multiplicity of keratinocyte cancers (basal cell carcinoma [BCC] and squamous cell carcinoma [SCC]) excised in Australia, and to examine variations by age, sex, state, and prior skin cancer history. Analysis of individual-level Medicare data for keratinocyte cancer treatments (identified by eight specific MBS item codes) during 2011-2014. Histological data from the QSkin prospective cohort study were analysed to estimate BCC and SCC incidence. A 10% systematic random sample of all people registered with Medicare during 1997-2014. People aged at least 20 years in 2011 who made at least one claim for any MBS medical service during 2011-2014 (1 704 193 individuals). Age-standardised incidence rates (ASRs) and standardised incidence ratios (SIRs). The person-based incidence of keratinocyte cancer excisions in Australia was 1531 per 100 000 person-years; incidence increased with age, and was higher for men than women (SIR, 1.43; 95% CI, 1.42-1.45). Lesion-based incidence was 3154 per 100 000 person-years. The estimated ASRs for BCC and SCC were 770 per 100 000 and 270 per 100 000 person-years respectively. During 2011-2014, 3.9% of Australians had one keratinocyte cancer excised, 2.7% had more than one excised; 74% of skin cancers were excised from patients who had two or more lesions removed. Multiplicity was strongly correlated with age; most male patients over 70 were treated for multiple lesions. Keratinocyte cancer incidence was eight times as high among people with a prior history of excisions as among those without. The incidence and multiplicity of keratinocyte cancer in Australia are very high, causing a large disease burden that has not previously been quantified.

  8. Epidemiology of Eating Disorders : Incidence, Prevalence and Mortality Rates

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Smink, Frederique R. E.; van Hoeken, Daphne; Hoek, Hans W.

    Eating disorders are relatively rare among the general population. This review discusses the literature on the incidence, prevalence and mortality rates of eating disorders. We searched online Medline/Pubmed, Embase and PsycINFO databases for articles published in English using several keyterms

  9. Stroke incidence rates among black residents of Harare - a ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    and a first-week mortaJrty rate of 35%, stroke must now be considered an ... which accelerated in the late 196Os,oHi accurate information about stroke incidence and ... impression of physicians, based on hospital discharge records, is that ...

  10. Lapse rate modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    De Giovanni, Domenico

    2010-01-01

    prepayment models for mortgage backed securities, this paper builds a Rational Expectation (RE) model describing the policyholders' behavior in lapsing the contract. A market model with stochastic interest rates is considered, and the pricing is carried out through numerical approximation...

  11. Lapse Rate Modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    De Giovanni, Domenico

    prepayment models for mortgage backed securities, this paper builds a Rational Expectation (RE) model describing the policyholders' behavior in lapsing the contract. A market model with stochastic interest rates is considered, and the pricing is carried out through numerical approximation...

  12. Predicting hepatitis B monthly incidence rates using weighted Markov chains and time series methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shahdoust, Maryam; Sadeghifar, Majid; Poorolajal, Jalal; Javanrooh, Niloofar; Amini, Payam

    2015-01-01

    Hepatitis B (HB) is a major global mortality. Accurately predicting the trend of the disease can provide an appropriate view to make health policy disease prevention. This paper aimed to apply three different to predict monthly incidence rates of HB. This historical cohort study was conducted on the HB incidence data of Hamadan Province, the west of Iran, from 2004 to 2012. Weighted Markov Chain (WMC) method based on Markov chain theory and two time series models including Holt Exponential Smoothing (HES) and SARIMA were applied on the data. The results of different applied methods were compared to correct percentages of predicted incidence rates. The monthly incidence rates were clustered into two clusters as state of Markov chain. The correct predicted percentage of the first and second clusters for WMC, HES and SARIMA methods was (100, 0), (84, 67) and (79, 47) respectively. The overall incidence rate of HBV is estimated to decrease over time. The comparison of results of the three models indicated that in respect to existing seasonality trend and non-stationarity, the HES had the most accurate prediction of the incidence rates.

  13. Incidence trends and mortality rates of gastric cancer in Israel.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lavy, Ron; Kapiev, Andronik; Poluksht, Natan; Halevy, Ariel; Keinan-Boker, Lital

    2013-04-01

    Gastric cancer is the fourth most common malignancy worldwide. The incidence trends and mortality rates of gastric cancer in Israel have not been studied in depth. The aim of our study was to try and investigate the aforementioned issues in Israel in different ethnic groups. This retrospective study is based on the data of The Israel National Cancer Registry and The Central Bureau of Statistics. Published data from these two institutes were collected, summarized, and analyzed in this study. Around 650 new cases of gastric cancer are diagnosed yearly in Israel. While we noticed a decline during the period 1990-2007 in the incidence in the Jewish population (13.6-8.9 and 6.75-5.42 cases per 100,000 in Jewish men and women, respectively), an increase in the Arab population was noticed (7.7-10.2 and 3.7-4.2 cases per 100,000 in men and women, respectively). Age-adjusted mortality rates per 10,000 cases of gastric cancer decreased significantly, from 7.21 in 1990 to 5.46 in 2007, in the total population. The 5-year relative survival showed a slight increase for both men and women. There is a difference in the incidence and outcome of gastric cancer between the Jewish and Arab populations in Israel. The grim prognosis of gastric cancer patients in Israel is probably due to the advanced stage at which gastric cancer is diagnosed in Israel.

  14. Incident Duration Modeling Using Flexible Parametric Hazard-Based Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ruimin Li

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Assessing and prioritizing the duration time and effects of traffic incidents on major roads present significant challenges for road network managers. This study examines the effect of numerous factors associated with various types of incidents on their duration and proposes an incident duration prediction model. Several parametric accelerated failure time hazard-based models were examined, including Weibull, log-logistic, log-normal, and generalized gamma, as well as all models with gamma heterogeneity and flexible parametric hazard-based models with freedom ranging from one to ten, by analyzing a traffic incident dataset obtained from the Incident Reporting and Dispatching System in Beijing in 2008. Results show that different factors significantly affect different incident time phases, whose best distributions were diverse. Given the best hazard-based models of each incident time phase, the prediction result can be reasonable for most incidents. The results of this study can aid traffic incident management agencies not only in implementing strategies that would reduce incident duration, and thus reduce congestion, secondary incidents, and the associated human and economic losses, but also in effectively predicting incident duration time.

  15. Predicting Cumulative Incidence Probability: Marginal and Cause-Specific Modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Scheike, Thomas H.; Zhang, Mei-Jie

    2005-01-01

    cumulative incidence probability; cause-specific hazards; subdistribution hazard; binomial modelling......cumulative incidence probability; cause-specific hazards; subdistribution hazard; binomial modelling...

  16. Continuous solutions to a viral infection model with general incidence rate, discrete state-dependent delay, CTL and antibody immune responses

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Rezunenko, Oleksandr

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 2016, č. 79 (2016), s. 1-15 ISSN 1417-3875 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA16-06678S Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : evolution equations * Lyapunov stability * state-dependent delay * virus infection model Subject RIV: BC - Control Systems Theory Impact factor: 0.926, year: 2016 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2016/AS/rezunenko-0464066.pdf

  17. High fall incidence and fracture rate in elderly dialysis patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Polinder-Bos, H A; Emmelot-Vonk, M H; Gansevoort, R T; Diepenbroek, A; Gaillard, C A J M

    2014-12-01

    Although it is recognised that the dialysis population is ageing rapidly, geriatric complications such as falls are poorly appreciated, despite the many risk factors for falls in this population. The objective of this study was to determine the incidence, complications and risk factors for falls in an elderly dialysis population. A one-year observational study of chronic dialysis patients aged ≥ 70 years. At baseline, patient characteristics were noted and during follow-up the vital parameters and laboratory values were recorded. Patients were questioned weekly about falls, fall circumstances and consequences by trained nurses. 49 patients were included with a median age of 79.3 years (70-89 years). During follow-up 40 fall accidents occurred in 27 (55%) patients. Falls resulted in fractures in 15% of cases and in hospital admissions in 15%. In haemodialysis (HD) patients, the mean systolic blood pressure (SBP) before HD was lower in fallers compared with non-fallers (130 vs. 143 mmHg). Several patients in the lower blood pressure category received antihypertensive medication. For every 5 mmHg lower SBP (before HD) the fall risk increased by 30% (hazard ratio (HR) 1.30, 95% CI 1.03-1.65, p = 0.03). Furthermore, fall risk increased by 22% for every 10 pmol/l rise of parathyroid hormone (HR 1.22, 95% CI 1.06-1.39, p = 0.004). Elderly dialysis patients have a high incidence of falls accompanied by a high fracture rate. Given the high complication rate, elderly patients at risk of falling should be identified and managed. Reduction of blood pressure-lowering medication might be a treatment strategy to reduce falls.

  18. Burden of type 2 diabetes in Mexico: past, current and future prevalence and incidence rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meza, Rafael; Barrientos-Gutierrez, Tonatiuh; Rojas-Martinez, Rosalba; Reynoso-Noverón, Nancy; Palacio-Mejia, Lina Sofia; Lazcano-Ponce, Eduardo; Hernández-Ávila, Mauricio

    2015-12-01

    Mexico diabetes prevalence has increased dramatically in recent years. However, no national incidence estimates exist, hampering the assessment of diabetes trends and precluding the development of burden of disease analyses to inform public health policy decision-making. Here we provide evidence regarding current magnitude of diabetes in Mexico and its future trends. We used data from the Mexico National Health and Nutrition Survey, and age-period-cohort models to estimate prevalence and incidence of self-reported diagnosed diabetes by age, sex, calendar-year (1960-2012), and birth-cohort (1920-1980). We project future rates under three alternative incidence scenarios using demographic projections of the Mexican population from 2010-2050 and a Multi-cohort Diabetes Markov Model. Adult (ages 20+) diagnosed diabetes prevalence in Mexico increased from 7% to 8.9% from 2006 to 2012. Diabetes prevalence increases with age, peaking around ages 65-68 to then decrease. Age-specific incidence follows similar patterns, but peaks around ages 57-59. We estimate that diagnosed diabetes incidence increased exponentially during 1960-2012, roughly doubling every 10 years. Projected rates under three age-specific incidence scenarios suggest diabetes prevalence among adults (ages 20+) may reach 13.7-22.5% by 2050, affecting 15-25 million individuals, with a lifetime risk of 1 in 3 to 1 in 2. Diabetes prevalence in Mexico will continue to increase even if current incidence rates remain unchanged. Continued implementation of policies to reduce obesity rates, increase physical activity, and improve population diet, in tandem with diabetes surveillance and other risk control measures is paramount to substantially reduce the burden of diabetes in Mexico. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Incidence rate of clinical mastitis on Canadian dairy farms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olde Riekerink, R G M; Barkema, H W; Kelton, D F; Scholl, D T

    2008-04-01

    No nationwide studies of the incidence rate of clinical mastitis (IRCM) have been conducted in Canada. Because the IRCM and distribution of mastitis-causing bacteria may show substantial geographic variation, the primary objective of this study was to determine regional pathogen-specific IRCM on Canadian dairy farms. Additionally, the association of pathogen-specific IRCM with bulk milk somatic cell count (BMSCC) and barn type were determined. In total, 106 dairy farms in 10 provinces of Canada participated in the study for a period of 1 yr. Participating producers recorded 3,149 cases of clinical mastitis. The most frequently isolated mastitis pathogens were Staphylococcus aureus, Escherichia coli, Streptococcus uberis, and coagulase-negative staphylococci. Overall mean and median IRCM were 23.0 and 16.7 cases per 100 cow-years in the selected herds, respectively, with a range from 0.7 to 97.4 per herd. No association between BMSCC and overall IRCM was found, but E. coli and culture-negative IRCM were highest and Staph. aureus IRCM was lowest in low and medium BMSCC herds. Staphylococcus aureus, Strep. uberis, and Streptococcus dysgalactiae IRCM were lowest in the Western provinces. Staphylococcus aureus and Strep. dysgalactiae IRCM were highest in Québec. Cows in tie-stalls had higher incidences of Staph. aureus, Strep. uberis, coagulase-negative staphylococci, and other streptococcal IRCM compared with those in free-stalls, whereas cows in free stalls had higher Klebsiella spp. and E. coli IRCM than those in tie-stall barns. The focus of mastitis prevention and control programs should differ between regions and should be tailored to farms based on housing type and BMSCC.

  20. A comparison of surveillance methods for small incidence rates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sego, Landon H.; Woodall, William H.; Reynolds, Marion R.

    2008-05-15

    A number of methods have been proposed to detect an increasing shift in the incidence rate of a rare health event, such as a congenital malformation. Among these are the Sets method, two modifcations of the Sets method, and the CUSUM method based on the Poisson distribution. We consider the situation where data are observed as a sequence of Bernoulli trials and propose the Bernoulli CUSUM chart as a desirable method for the surveillance of rare health events. We compare the performance of the Sets method and its modifcations to the Bernoulli CUSUM chart under a wide variety of circumstances. Chart design parameters were chosen to satisfy a minimax criteria.We used the steady- state average run length to measure chart performance instead of the average run length which was used in nearly all previous comparisons involving the Sets method or its modifcations. Except in a very few instances, we found that the Bernoulli CUSUM chart has better steady-state average run length performance than the Sets method and its modifcations for the extensive number of cases considered.

  1. Soft Tissue Strain Rates in Side-Blast Incidents

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-11-02

    increase of strain rate is known to cause the stiffening of soft connective tissues ( Haut and Haut 1997 [49]; Panjabi et al. 1998 [50]; Crisco et al...Réseau Québécois de Calcul de Haute Performance, with a peak compute performance of 27 596 GFlops). Figure 2: Torso motion imposed in the model...Yan YP. 2003. Mechanical properties of nasal fascia and periosteum. Clinical Biomechanics. 18:760-764. [49] Haut TL, Haut RC. 1997. The state of

  2. Do pregnancy characteristics contribute to rising childhood cancer incidence rates in the United States?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kehm, Rebecca D; Osypuk, Theresa L; Poynter, Jenny N; Vock, David M; Spector, Logan G

    2018-03-01

    Since 1975, childhood cancer incidence rates have gradually increased in the United States; however, few studies have conducted analyses across time to unpack this temporal rise. The aim of this study was to test the hypothesis that increasing cancer incidence rates are due to secular trends in pregnancy characteristics that are established risk factors for childhood cancer incidence including older maternal age, higher birthweight, and lower birth order. We also considered temporal trends in sociodemographic characteristics including race/ethnicity and poverty. We conducted a time series county-level ecologic analysis using linked population-based data from Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results cancer registries (1975-2013), birth data from the National Center for Health Statistics (1970-2013), and sociodemographic data from the US Census (1970-2010). We estimated unadjusted and adjusted average annual percent changes (AAPCs) in incidence of combined (all diagnoses) and individual types of cancer among children, ages 0-4 years, from Poisson mixed models. There was a statistically significant unadjusted temporal rise in incidence of combined childhood cancers (AAPC = 0.71%; 95% CI = 0.55-0.86), acute lymphoblastic leukemia (0.78%; 0.49-1.07), acute myeloid leukemia (1.86%; 1.13-2.59), central nervous system tumors (1.31%; 0.94-1.67), and hepatoblastoma (2.70%; 1.68-3.72). Adjustment for county-level maternal age reduced estimated AAPCs between 8% (hepatoblastoma) and 55% (combined). However, adjustment for other county characteristics did not attenuate AAPCs, and AAPCs remained significantly above 0% in models fully adjusted for county-level characteristics. Although rising maternal age may account for some of the increase in childhood cancer incidence over time, other factors, not considered in this analysis, may also contribute to temporal trends. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  3. The Impact of Changes to the Unemployment Rate on Australian Disability Income Insurance Claim Incidence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gaurav Khemka

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available We explore the extent to which claim incidence in Disability Income Insurance (DII is affected by changes in the unemployment rate in Australia. Using data from 1986 to 2001, we fit a hurdle model to explore the presence and magnitude of the effect of changes in unemployment rate on the incidence of DII claims, controlling for policy holder characteristics and seasonality. We find a clear positive association between unemployment and claim incidence, and we explore this further by gender, age, deferment period, and occupation. A multinomial logistic regression model is fitted to cause of claim data in order to explore the relationship further, and it is shown that the proportion of claims due to accident increases markedly with rising unemployment. The results suggest that during periods of rising unemployment, insurers may face increased claims from policy holders with shorter deferment periods for white-collar workers and for medium and heavy manual workers. Our findings indicate that moral hazard may have a material impact on DII claim incidence and insurer business in periods of declining economic conditions.

  4. Revisiting the concept of ‘chronic disease’ from the perspective of the episode of care model. Does the ratio of incidence to prevalence rate help us to define a problem as chronic?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jean K Soler

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Background This is a study of the epidemiology of acute and chronic episodes of care (EoCs in the Transition Project in three countries. We studied the duration of EoCs for acute and chronic health problems and the relationship of incidence to prevalence rates for these EoCs.Method The Transition Project databases collect data on all elements of the doctor–patient encounter in family medicine. Family doctors code these elements using the International Classification of Primary Care.We used the data from three practice populations to study the duration of EoCs and the ratio of incidence to prevalence for common health problems.Results We found that chronic health problems tended to have proportionately longer duration EoCs, as expected, but also a lower incidence to prevalence rate ratio than acute health problems. Thus, the incidence to prevalence index could be used to define a chronic condition as one with a low ratio, below a defined threshold.Conclusions Chronic health problems tend to have longer duration EoCs, proportionately, across populations. This result is expected, but we found important similarities and differences which make defining a problem as chronic on the basis of time rather difficult. The ratio of incidence to prevalence rates has potential to categorise health problems into acute or chronic categories, at different ratio thresholds (such as 20, 30 or 50%. It seems to perform well in this study of three family practice populations, and is proposed to the scientific community for further evaluation.

  5. Incidence rate of clinical bovine mastitis in selected smallholder ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    were cows with chronic mastitis and the awareness of milkers on segregation of affected cows and use ... Bendictus, G. and Brand, A. 1998. Incidence of clinical ... Small-scale milk marketing and processing in Ethiopia. In: Rangnekar, D. and ...

  6. High fall incidence and fracture rate in elderly dialysis patients

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Polinder-Bos, H. A.; Emmelot-Vonk, M. H.; Gansevoort, R. T.; Diepenbroek, A.; Gaillard, C. A. J. M.

    2014-01-01

    Background: Although it is recognised that the dialysis population is ageing rapidly, geriatric complications such as falls are poorly appreciated, despite the many risk factors for falls in this population. The objective of this study was to determine the incidence, complications and risk factors

  7. Subarachnoid haemorrhage in Sweden 1987-2002 : regional incidence and case fatality rates

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koffijberg, H.; Buskens, E.; Granath, F.; Adami, J.; Ekbom, A.; Rinkel, G. J. E.; Blomqvist, P.

    Background: Incidence estimates of subarachnoid haemorrhage (SAH) in Sweden vary, which may be caused by regional variations. Reliable estimates of age-specific case fatality rates are lacking. We analysed regional incidence rates and case fatality rates of SAH in Sweden. Methods: The Swedish

  8. Work-related ill health in doctors working in Great Britain: incidence rates and trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Anli Yue; Carder, Melanie; Gittins, Matthew; Agius, Raymond

    2017-11-01

    Background Doctors have a higher prevalence of mental ill health compared with other professional occupations but incidence rates are poorly studied. Aims To determine incidence rates and trends of work-related ill health (WRIH) and work-related mental ill health (WRMIH) in doctors compared with other professions in Great Britain. Method Incidence rates were calculated using an occupational physician reporting scheme from 2005-2010. Multilevel regression was use to study incidence rates from 2001 to 2014. Results Annual incidence rates for WRIH and WRIMH in doctors were 515 and 431 per 100 000 people employed, respectively. Higher incidence rates for WRIH and WRMIH were observed for ambulance staff and nurses, respectively. Doctors demonstrated an annual average incidence rates increase for WRIH and WRMIH, especially in women, whereas the other occupations demonstrated a decreasing or static trend. The difference in trends between the occupations was statistically significant. Conclusions WRIH and WRMIH incidence rate are increasing in doctors, especially in women, warranting further research. © The Royal College of Psychiatrists 2017.

  9. Oral cancer incidence and survival rates in the Republic of Ireland, 1994-2009.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ali, Hala; Sinnott, Sarah-Jo; Corcoran, Paul; Deady, Sandra; Sharp, Linda; Kabir, Zubair

    2016-12-20

    Oral cancer is a significant public health problem world-wide and exerts high economic, social, psychological, and physical burdens on patients, their families, and on their primary care providers. We set out to describe the changing trends in incidence and survival rates of oral cancer in Ireland between 1994 and 2009. National data on incident oral cancers [ICD 10 codes C01-C06] were obtained from the National Cancer Registry Ireland from 1994 to 2009. We estimated annual percentage change (APC) in oral cancer incidence during 1994-2009 using joinpoint regression software (version 4.2.0.2). The lifetime risk of oral cancer to age 79 was estimated using Irish incidence and population data from 2007 to 2009. Survival rates were also examined using Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox proportional hazard models to explore the influence of several demographic/lifestyle covariates with follow-up to end 2012. Data were obtained on 2,147 oral cancer incident cases. Men accounted for two-thirds of oral cancer cases (n = 1,430). Annual rates in men decreased significantly during 1994-2001 (APC = -4.8 %, 95 % CI: -8.7 to -0.7) and then increased moderately (APC = 2.3 %, 95 % CI: -0.9 to 5.6). In contrast, annual incidence increased significantly in women throughout the study period (APC = 3.2 %, 95 % CI: 1.9 to 4.6). There was an elevated risk of death among oral cancer patients who were: older than 60 years of age; smokers; unemployed or retired; those living in the most deprived areas; and those whose tumour was sited in the base of the tongue. Being married and diagnosed in more recent years were associated with reduced risk of death. Oral cancer increased significantly in both sexes between 1999 and 2009 in Ireland. Our analyses demonstrate the influence of measured factors such as smoking, time of diagnosis and age on observed trends. Unmeasured factors such as alcohol use, HPV and dietary factors may also be contributing to increased trends. Several of

  10. [Application of ARIMA model on prediction of malaria incidence].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jing, Xia; Hua-Xun, Zhang; Wen, Lin; Su-Jian, Pei; Ling-Cong, Sun; Xiao-Rong, Dong; Mu-Min, Cao; Dong-Ni, Wu; Shunxiang, Cai

    2016-01-29

    To predict the incidence of local malaria of Hubei Province applying the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model (ARIMA). SPSS 13.0 software was applied to construct the ARIMA model based on the monthly local malaria incidence in Hubei Province from 2004 to 2009. The local malaria incidence data of 2010 were used for model validation and evaluation. The model of ARIMA (1, 1, 1) (1, 1, 0) 12 was tested as relatively the best optimal with the AIC of 76.085 and SBC of 84.395. All the actual incidence data were in the range of 95% CI of predicted value of the model. The prediction effect of the model was acceptable. The ARIMA model could effectively fit and predict the incidence of local malaria of Hubei Province.

  11. Incidence and frequency rates of childhood cancer in Namibia

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    similar to the rates recorded in other African countries but higher than in the UK or the ... age, sex, date of birth, ethnic group, address, diagnosis and diagnosis date were .... significant (P > O.CS). Tumour distribution by age group in all children.

  12. Stomach cancer incidence rates among Americans, Asian Americans and Native Asians from 1988 to 2011

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yeerae Kim

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Stomach cancer is the second most common cancer in Eastern Asia, accounting for approximately 50% of all new cases of stomach cancer worldwide. Our objective was to compare the stomach cancer incidence rates of Asian Americans in Los Angeles with those of native Asians to assess the etiology of stomach cancer from 1988 to 2011. To examine these differences, Asian Americans (Korean, Japanese, Chinese, and Filipino Americans living in Los Angeles, California, USA and native Asians (from Korea, Japan, China, and the Philippines were selected for this study. Using the Cancer Incidence in Five Continents database, stomach cancer incidence rates were examined. Data from the National Cancer Registry of Korea were used for native Koreans. Between native countries, the incidence rates in Japan, China, the Philippines, and the US declined over time, but the incidence in Korea has remained constant. The incidences among Asian immigrants were lower than those among native Asians. The incidence rates of males were approximately 2 times higher than those among females in Asian countries were. The effect of immigration on stomach cancer incidence suggests that lifestyle factors are a significant determinant of stomach cancer risk. However, the incidence in Korea remains the highest of these countries

  13. A new, accurate predictive model for incident hypertension

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Völzke, Henry; Fung, Glenn; Ittermann, Till

    2013-01-01

    Data mining represents an alternative approach to identify new predictors of multifactorial diseases. This work aimed at building an accurate predictive model for incident hypertension using data mining procedures.......Data mining represents an alternative approach to identify new predictors of multifactorial diseases. This work aimed at building an accurate predictive model for incident hypertension using data mining procedures....

  14. Regions of High Out-Of-Hospital Cardiac Arrest Incidence and Low Bystander CPR Rates in Victoria, Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Straney, Lahn D; Bray, Janet E; Beck, Ben; Finn, Judith; Bernard, Stephen; Dyson, Kylie; Lijovic, Marijana; Smith, Karen

    2015-01-01

    Out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) remains a major public health issue and research has shown that large regional variation in outcomes exists. Of the interventions associated with survival, the provision of bystander CPR is one of the most important modifiable factors. The aim of this study is to identify census areas with high incidence of OHCA and low rates of bystander CPR in Victoria, Australia. We conducted an observational study using prospectively collected population-based OHCA data from the state of Victoria in Australia. Using ArcGIS (ArcMap 10.0), we linked the location of the arrest using the dispatch coordinates (longitude and latitude) to Victorian Local Government Areas (LGAs). We used Bayesian hierarchical models with random effects on each LGA to provide shrunken estimates of the rates of bystander CPR and the incidence rates. Over the study period there were 31,019 adult OHCA attended, of which 21,436 (69.1%) cases were of presumed cardiac etiology. Significant variation in the incidence of OHCA among LGAs was observed. There was a 3 fold difference in the incidence rate between the lowest and highest LGAs, ranging from 38.5 to 115.1 cases per 100,000 person-years. The overall rate of bystander CPR for bystander witnessed OHCAs was 62.4%, with the rate increasing from 56.4% in 2008-2010 to 68.6% in 2010-2013. There was a 25.1% absolute difference in bystander CPR rates between the highest and lowest LGAs. Significant regional variation in OHCA incidence and bystander CPR rates exists throughout Victoria. Regions with high incidence and low bystander CPR participation can be identified and would make suitable targets for interventions to improve CPR participation rates.

  15. Depression and unemployment incidence rate evolution in Portugal, 1995-2013: General Practitioner Sentinel Network data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodrigues, Ana Paula; Sousa-Uva, Mafalda; Fonseca, Rita; Marques, Sara; Pina, Nuno; Matias-Dias, Carlos

    2017-11-17

    Quantify, for both genders, the correlation between the depression incidence rate and the unemployment rate in Portugal between 1995 and 2013. An ecological study was developed to correlate the evolution of the depression incidence rates estimated by the General Practitioner Sentinel Network and the annual unemployment rates provided by the National Statistical Institute in official publications. There was a positive correlation between the depression incidence rate and the unemployment rate in Portugal, which was significant only for males (R2 = 0.83, p = 0.04). For this gender, an increase of 37 new cases of depression per 100,000 inhabitants was estimated for each 1% increase in the unemployment rate between 1995 and 2013. Although the study design does not allow the establishment of a causal association between unemployment and depression, the results suggest that the evolution of unemployment in Portugal may have had a significant impact on the level of mental health of the Portuguese, especially among men.

  16. Age-adjusted cancer incidence rates by county and year, 1999-2009

    Data.gov (United States)

    California Environmental Health Tracking Program — This dataset contains age-adjusted incidence rates for 26 malignancy/age group/gender combinations for the years 1999-2009. These data are stratified by year and...

  17. Daylight savings time transitions and the incidence rate of unipolar depressive episodes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Bertel T; Sønderskov, Kim M; Hageman, Ida

    2017-01-01

    Background: Daylight savings time transitions affect approximately 1.6 billion people worldwide. Prior studies have documented associations between daylight savings time transitions and adverse health outcomes, but it remains unknown whether they also cause an increase in the incidence rate...... of depressive episodes. This seems likely because daylight savings time transitions affect circadian rhythms, which are implicated in the etiology of depressive disorder. Therefore, we investigated the effects of daylight savings time transitions on the incidence rate of unipolar depressive episodes. Methods...

  18. Regional geographic variations in kidney cancer incidence rates in European countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Peng; Znaor, Ariana; Holcatova, Ivana; Fabianova, Eleonora; Mates, Dana; Wozniak, Magdalena B; Ferlay, Jacques; Scelo, Ghislaine

    2015-06-01

    Marked unexplained national variations in incidence rates of kidney cancer have been observed for decades in Europe. To investigate geographic variations at the regional level and identify European regions with high incidence rates of kidney cancer. Regional- and national-level incidence data were extracted from the Cancer Incidence in Five Continents databases, local cancer registry databases, and local published reports. World population age-standardised rates (ASRs) were calculated for the periods 2003-2007 and 1988-1992. Rates by period and sex were compared using map visualisation. During 2003-2007, the highest ASR was found in the Plzen region, Czech Republic (31.4/100,000 person-years in men). Other regions of the Czech Republic had ASRs of 18.6-27.5/100,000 in men, with a tendency for higher rates in regions south of Prague. Surrounding regions, including eastern Germany and regions of Slovakia and Austria, had medium-to-high incidence rates (13.0-16.8/100,000 in men). Three other areas in Europe showed higher incidence rates in men compared with the rest of the continent: Lithuania, Estonia, Latvia, and Belarus (15.0-17.6/100,000); Iceland (13.5/100,000), and northern Italy (up to 16.0/100,000). Similar regional differences were observed among women, with rates approximately half of those observed in men in the same region. In general, these regional geographic variations remained stable over the periods 1988-1992 and 2003-2007, although higher incidence rates were detected in the Baltic countries in 2003-2007. Several European regions show particularly high rates of kidney cancer incidence. Large variations were observed within countries covered by national health-care systems, implying that overdetection is not the major factor. We present regional geographic variations in kidney cancer incidence rates in Europe. We highlight several regions with high incidence rates where further studies should be conducted for cancer control and prevention. Copyright

  19. Global Incidence and Mortality Rates of Stomach Cancer and the Human Development Index: an Ecological Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khazaei, Salman; Rezaeian, Shahab; Soheylizad, Mokhtar; Khazaei, Somayeh; Biderafsh, Azam

    2016-01-01

    Stomach cancer (SC) is the second leading cause of cancer death with the rate of 10.4% in the world. The correlation between the incidence and mortality rates of SC and human development index (HDI) has not been globally determined. Therefore, this study aimed to determine the association between the incidence and mortality rates of SC and HDI in various regions. In this global ecological study, we used the data about the incidence and mortality rate of SC and HDI from the global cancer project and the United Nations Development Programme database, respectively. In 2012, SCs were estimated to have affected a total of 951,594 individuals (crude rate: 13.5 per 100,000 individuals) with a male/female ratio of 1.97, and caused 723,073 deaths worldwide (crude rate: 10.2 per 100,000 individuals). There was a positive correlation between the HDI and both incidence (r=0.28, countries with high and very high HDI is remarkable which should be the top priority of interventions for global health policymakers. In addition, health programs should be provided to reduce the burden of this disease in the regions with high incidence and mortality rates of SC.

  20. Assessing the external validity of model-based estimates of the incidence of heart attack in England: a modelling study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Scarborough

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The DisMod II model is designed to estimate epidemiological parameters on diseases where measured data are incomplete and has been used to provide estimates of disease incidence for the Global Burden of Disease study. We assessed the external validity of the DisMod II model by comparing modelled estimates of the incidence of first acute myocardial infarction (AMI in England in 2010 with estimates derived from a linked dataset of hospital records and death certificates. Methods Inputs for DisMod II were prevalence rates of ever having had an AMI taken from a population health survey, total mortality rates and AMI mortality rates taken from death certificates. By definition, remission rates were zero. We estimated first AMI incidence in an external dataset from England in 2010 using a linked dataset including all hospital admissions and death certificates since 1998. 95 % confidence intervals were derived around estimates from the external dataset and DisMod II estimates based on sampling variance and reported uncertainty in prevalence estimates respectively. Results Estimates of the incidence rate for the whole population were higher in the DisMod II results than the external dataset (+54 % for men and +26 % for women. Age-specific results showed that the DisMod II results over-estimated incidence for all but the oldest age groups. Confidence intervals for the DisMod II and external dataset estimates did not overlap for most age groups. Conclusion By comparison with AMI incidence rates in England, DisMod II did not achieve external validity for age-specific incidence rates, but did provide global estimates of incidence that are of similar magnitude to measured estimates. The model should be used with caution when estimating age-specific incidence rates.

  1. Relaxed Poisson cure rate models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodrigues, Josemar; Cordeiro, Gauss M; Cancho, Vicente G; Balakrishnan, N

    2016-03-01

    The purpose of this article is to make the standard promotion cure rate model (Yakovlev and Tsodikov, ) more flexible by assuming that the number of lesions or altered cells after a treatment follows a fractional Poisson distribution (Laskin, ). It is proved that the well-known Mittag-Leffler relaxation function (Berberan-Santos, ) is a simple way to obtain a new cure rate model that is a compromise between the promotion and geometric cure rate models allowing for superdispersion. So, the relaxed cure rate model developed here can be considered as a natural and less restrictive extension of the popular Poisson cure rate model at the cost of an additional parameter, but a competitor to negative-binomial cure rate models (Rodrigues et al., ). Some mathematical properties of a proper relaxed Poisson density are explored. A simulation study and an illustration of the proposed cure rate model from the Bayesian point of view are finally presented. © 2015 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  2. Daylight Savings Time Transitions and the Incidence Rate of Unipolar Depressive Episodes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, Bertel T; Sønderskov, Kim M; Hageman, Ida; Dinesen, Peter T; Østergaard, Søren D

    2017-05-01

    Daylight savings time transitions affect approximately 1.6 billion people worldwide. Prior studies have documented associations between daylight savings time transitions and adverse health outcomes, but it remains unknown whether they also cause an increase in the incidence rate of depressive episodes. This seems likely because daylight savings time transitions affect circadian rhythms, which are implicated in the etiology of depressive disorder. Therefore, we investigated the effects of daylight savings time transitions on the incidence rate of unipolar depressive episodes. Using time series intervention analysis of nationwide data from the Danish Psychiatric Central Research Register from 1995 to 2012, we compared the observed trend in the incidence rate of hospital contacts for unipolar depressive episodes after the transitions to and from summer time to the predicted trend in the incidence rate. The analyses were based on 185,419 hospital contacts for unipolar depression and showed that the transition from summer time to standard time were associated with an 11% increase (95% CI = 7%, 15%) in the incidence rate of unipolar depressive episodes that dissipated over approximately 10 weeks. The transition from standard time to summer time was not associated with a parallel change in the incidence rate of unipolar depressive episodes. This study shows that the transition from summer time to standard time was associated with an increase in the incidence rate of unipolar depressive episodes. Distress associated with the sudden advancement of sunset, marking the coming of a long period of short days, may explain this finding. See video abstract at, http://links.lww.com/EDE/B179.

  3. A comparison of catastrophic injury incidence rates by Provincial Rugby Union in South Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Badenhorst, Marelise; Verhagen, Evert A L M; van Mechelen, Willem; Lambert, Michael I; Viljoen, Wayne; Readhead, Clint; Baerecke, Gail; Brown, James C

    2017-07-01

    To compare catastrophic injury rates between the 14 South African Provincial Rugby Unions. A prospective, population-based study conducted among all South African Unions between 2008-2014. Player numbers in each Union were obtained from South African Rugby's 2013 Census. Catastrophic injuries were analysed from BokSmart's serious injury database. Incidence rates with 95% Confidence Intervals were calculated. Catastrophic injuries (Acute Spinal Cord Injuries and catastrophic Traumatic Brain Injuries) within Unions were compared statistically, using a Poisson regression with Incidence Rate Ratios (IRR) and a 95% confidence level (pUnion ranged from 1.8 per 100000 players (95% CI: 0.0-6.5) to 7.9 (95% CI: 0.0-28.5) per 100000 players per year. The highest incidence rate of permanent outcome Acute Spinal Cord Injuries was reported at 7.1 per 100000 players (95% CI: 0.0-17.6). Compared to this Union, five (n=5/14, 36%) of the Unions had significantly lower incidence rates of Acute Spinal Cord Injuries. Proportionately, three Unions had more Acute Spinal Cord Injuries and three other Unions had more catastrophic Traumatic Brain Injuries. There were significant differences in the catastrophic injury incidence rates amongst the Provincial Unions in South Africa. Future studies should investigate the underlying reasons contributing to these provincial differences. Copyright © 2017 Sports Medicine Australia. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Global Prostate Cancer Incidence and Mortality Rates According to the Human Development Index.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khazaei, Salman; Rezaeian, Shahab; Ayubi, Erfan; Gholamaliee, Behzad; Pishkuhi, Mahin Ahmadi; Khazaei, Somayeh; Mansori, Kamyar; Nematollahi, Shahrzad; Sani, Mohadeseh; Hanis, Shiva Mansouri

    2016-01-01

    Prostate cancer (PC) is one of the leading causes of death, especially in developed countries. The human development index (HDI) and its dimensions seem correlated with incidence and mortality rates of PC. This study aimed to assess the association of the specific components of HDI (life expectancy at birth, education, gross national income per 1000 capita, health, and living standards) with burden indicators of PC worldwide. Information of the incidence and mortality rates of PC was obtained from the GLOBOCAN cancer project in year 2012 and data about the HDI 2013 were obtained from the World Bank database. The correlation between incidence, mortality rates, and the HDI parameters were assessed using STATA software. A significant inequality of PC incidence rates was observed according to concentration indexes=0.25 with 95% CI (0.22, 0.34) and a negative mortality concentration index of -0.04 with 95% CI (-0.09, 0.01) was observed. A positive significant correlation was detected between the incidence rates of PC and the HDI and its dimensions including life expectancy at birth, education, income, urbanization level and obesity. However, there was a negative significant correlation between the standardized mortality rates and the life expectancy, income and HDI.

  5. Incidence and progression rates of age-related maculopathy: the Rotterdam Study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J.J.M. Willemse-Assink (Jacqueline); R. van Leeuwen (Redmer); R.C.W. Wolfs (Roger); J.R. Vingerling (Hans); Th. Stijnen (Theo); P.T.V.M. de Jong (Paulus); C.C.W. Klaver (Caroline); A. Hofman (Albert)

    2001-01-01

    textabstractPURPOSE: To describe the incidence rate of age-related macular degeneration (AMD) and the progression rates of early stages of age-related maculopathy (ARM), and to study the hierarchy of fundus features that determine progression. METHODS: A group of 4953 subjects

  6. An update in international trends in incidence rates of thyroid cancer, 1973-2007.

    Science.gov (United States)

    James, Benjamin C; Mitchell, Janeil M; Jeon, Heedo D; Vasilottos, Nektarios; Grogan, Raymon H; Aschebrook-Kilfoy, Briseis

    2018-05-01

    Over the past several decades, there has been a reported increase in the incidence of thyroid cancer in many countries. We previously reported an increase in thyroid cancer incidence across continents between 1973 and 2002. Here, we provide an update on the international trends in thyroid cancer between 2003 and 2007. We examined thyroid cancer incidence data from the Cancer Incidence in Five Continents (CI5) database for the period between 1973 and 2007 from 24 populations in the Americas, Asia, Europe, Africa and Oceania, and report on the time trends as well as the distribution by histologic type and gender worldwide. The incidence of thyroid cancer increased during the period from 1998-2002 to 2003-2007 in the majority of populations examined, with the highest rates observed among women, most notably in Israel and the United States SEER registry, at over 14 per 100,000 people. This update suggests that incidence is rising in a similar fashion across all regions of the world. The histologic and gender distributions in the updated CI5 are consistent with the previous report. Our analysis of the published CI5 data illustrates that the incidence of thyroid cancer increased between 1998-2002 and 2003-2007 in most populations worldwide, and rising rates continue in all regions of the world.

  7. Prevalence and incidence rate of injuries in runners at a local athletic club in Cape Town

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Hendricks

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available People across the world are running on a daily basis to improvetheir health status. However, running can predispose an individual to injuryto the back and lower limb. Baseline data on prevalence, incidence rate ofinjury and aetiological factors associated with running injuries are neededby physiotherapists to develop and implement effective prevention programmesto allow optimal performance in runners. Thus, the purpose of this study wasto determine the prevalence and incidence of injuries in runners at a localathletic club.Methods: A prospective, non-experimental cohort study was conductedover a 16 week period. A sample of 50 runners completed a self-administeredquestionnaire and an injury report form recording injuries sustained during the 16 week study period. Injury prevalence andcumulative incidence was calculated as a proportion rate along with 95% confidence interval.Results: The prevalence rate of injuries was 32%. The incidence rate of injuries was 0.67 per 1000km run (95% CI: 0.41- 1.08.The most common anatomical sites for new injuries were the calf (20% and the knee (18%.Conclusions: The study found a moderate prevalence and incidence rate of injury in runners, thus the need for physiotherapyledinjury surveillance and prevention programmes have been highlighted.

  8. Patterns and Trends of Liver Cancer Incidence Rates in Eastern and Southeastern Asian Countries (1983-2007) and Predictions to 2030.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Jie; Yang, Shigui; Xu, Kaijin; Ding, Cheng; Zhou, Yuqing; Fu, Xiaofang; Li, Yiping; Deng, Min; Wang, Chencheng; Liu, Xiaoxiao; Li, Lanjuan

    2018-05-01

    We examined temporal trends in liver cancer incidence rates overall and by histological type from 1983 through 2007. We predict trends in liver cancer incidence rates through 2030 for selected Eastern and Southeastern Asian countries. Data on yearly liver cancer incident cases by age group and sex were drawn from 6 major selected Eastern and Southeastern Asian countries or regions with cancer registries available in the CI5plus database, including China, Japan, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (SAR), the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand. We also analyzed data for the United States and Australia for comparative purposes. Age-standardized incidence rates were calculated and plotted from 1983 through 2007. Numbers of new cases and incidence rates were predicted through 2030 by fitting and extrapolating age-period-cohort models. The incidence rates of liver cancer have been decreasing, and decreases will continue in all selected Eastern and Southeastern Asian countries, except for Thailand, whose liver cancer incidence rate will increase due to the increasing incidence rate of intrahepatic cholangiocarcinomas. Even though the incidence rates of liver cancer are predicted to decrease in most Eastern and Southeastern Asian countries, the burden, in terms of new cases, will continue to increase because of population growth and aging. Based on an analysis of data from cancer registries from Asian countries, incidence rates of liver cancer are expected to decrease through 2030 in most Eastern and Southeastern Asian countries. However, in Thailand, the incidence rate of intrahepatic cholangiocarcinomas is predicted to increase, so health education programs are necessary. Copyright © 2018 AGA Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Scrub Typhus Incidence Modeling with Meteorological Factors in South Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwak, Jaewon; Kim, Soojun; Kim, Gilho; Singh, Vijay P; Hong, Seungjin; Kim, Hung Soo

    2015-06-29

    Since its recurrence in 1986, scrub typhus has been occurring annually and it is considered as one of the most prevalent diseases in Korea. Scrub typhus is a 3rd grade nationally notifiable disease that has greatly increased in Korea since 2000. The objective of this study is to construct a disease incidence model for prediction and quantification of the incidences of scrub typhus. Using data from 2001 to 2010, the incidence Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model, which considers the time-lag between scrub typhus and minimum temperature, precipitation and average wind speed based on the Granger causality and spectral analysis, is constructed and tested for 2011 to 2012. Results show reliable simulation of scrub typhus incidences with selected predictors, and indicate that the seasonality in meteorological data should be considered.

  10. Scrub Typhus Incidence Modeling with Meteorological Factors in South Korea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jaewon Kwak

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Since its recurrence in 1986, scrub typhus has been occurring annually and it is considered as one of the most prevalent diseases in Korea. Scrub typhus is a 3rd grade nationally notifiable disease that has greatly increased in Korea since 2000. The objective of this study is to construct a disease incidence model for prediction and quantification of the incidences of scrub typhus. Using data from 2001 to 2010, the incidence Artificial Neural Network (ANN model, which considers the time-lag between scrub typhus and minimum temperature, precipitation and average wind speed based on the Granger causality and spectral analysis, is constructed and tested for 2011 to 2012. Results show reliable simulation of scrub typhus incidences with selected predictors, and indicate that the seasonality in meteorological data should be considered.

  11. Gender-age interaction in incidence rates of childhood emotional disorders

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wesselhoeft, R; Pedersen, C B; Mortensen, P B

    2014-01-01

    were incidence rates and cumulative incidences for unipolar depressive disorder (ICD-10: F32-F33), anxiety disorders (ICD-10: F40-F42), and emotional disorders with onset specific to childhood (ICD-10: F93). RESULTS: Pre-pubertal incidence rates for depressive and anxiety disorders were higher for boys...... rates of emotional disorders throughout childhood. METHOD: This is a population-based cohort study of 907 806 Danish 3- to 18-year-olds. The outcome was assignment of an emotional disorder diagnosis based on in-patient and out-patient data from The Danish Psychiatric Central Register. Outcome measures.......24-2.43) for boys and 3.77% (95% CI 3.64-3.90) for girls. The pre-pubertal male preponderance was also significant for depressive disorders (F32-F33, p = 0.00144) and anxiety disorders (F40-F42, F93, p

  12. Genetic parameters of body weight and ascites in broilers: effect of different incidence rates of ascites syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmadpanah, J; Ghavi Hossein-Zadeh, N; Shadparvar, A A; Pakdel, A

    2017-02-01

    1. The objectives of the current study were to investigate the effect of incidence rate (5%, 10%, 20%, 30% and 50%) of ascites syndrome on the expression of genetic characteristics for body weight at 5 weeks of age (BW5) and AS and to compare different methods of genetic parameter estimation for these traits. 2. Based on stochastic simulation, a population with discrete generations was created in which random mating was used for 10 generations. Two methods of restricted maximum likelihood and Bayesian approach via Gibbs sampling were used for the estimation of genetic parameters. A bivariate model including maternal effects was used. The root mean square error for direct heritabilities was also calculated. 3. The results showed that when incidence rates of ascites increased from 5% to 30%, the heritability of AS increased from 0.013 and 0.005 to 0.110 and 0.162 for linear and threshold models, respectively. 4. Maternal effects were significant for both BW5 and AS. Genetic correlations were decreased by increasing incidence rates of ascites in the population from 0.678 and 0.587 at 5% level of ascites to 0.393 and -0.260 at 50% occurrence for linear and threshold models, respectively. 5. The RMSE of direct heritability from true values for BW5 was greater based on a linear-threshold model compared with the linear model of analysis (0.0092 vs. 0.0015). The RMSE of direct heritability from true values for AS was greater based on a linear-linear model (1.21 vs. 1.14). 6. In order to rank birds for ascites incidence, it is recommended to use a threshold model because it resulted in higher heritability estimates compared with the linear model and that BW5 could be one of the main components of selection goals.

  13. Time Series Modelling of Syphilis Incidence in China from 2005 to 2012.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xingyu; Zhang, Tao; Pei, Jiao; Liu, Yuanyuan; Li, Xiaosong; Medrano-Gracia, Pau

    2016-01-01

    The infection rate of syphilis in China has increased dramatically in recent decades, becoming a serious public health concern. Early prediction of syphilis is therefore of great importance for heath planning and management. In this paper, we analyzed surveillance time series data for primary, secondary, tertiary, congenital and latent syphilis in mainland China from 2005 to 2012. Seasonality and long-term trend were explored with decomposition methods. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) was used to fit a univariate time series model of syphilis incidence. A separate multi-variable time series for each syphilis type was also tested using an autoregressive integrated moving average model with exogenous variables (ARIMAX). The syphilis incidence rates have increased three-fold from 2005 to 2012. All syphilis time series showed strong seasonality and increasing long-term trend. Both ARIMA and ARIMAX models fitted and estimated syphilis incidence well. All univariate time series showed highest goodness-of-fit results with the ARIMA(0,0,1)×(0,1,1) model. Time series analysis was an effective tool for modelling the historical and future incidence of syphilis in China. The ARIMAX model showed superior performance than the ARIMA model for the modelling of syphilis incidence. Time series correlations existed between the models for primary, secondary, tertiary, congenital and latent syphilis.

  14. Time Series Modelling of Syphilis Incidence in China from 2005 to 2012

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xingyu; Zhang, Tao; Pei, Jiao; Liu, Yuanyuan; Li, Xiaosong; Medrano-Gracia, Pau

    2016-01-01

    Background The infection rate of syphilis in China has increased dramatically in recent decades, becoming a serious public health concern. Early prediction of syphilis is therefore of great importance for heath planning and management. Methods In this paper, we analyzed surveillance time series data for primary, secondary, tertiary, congenital and latent syphilis in mainland China from 2005 to 2012. Seasonality and long-term trend were explored with decomposition methods. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) was used to fit a univariate time series model of syphilis incidence. A separate multi-variable time series for each syphilis type was also tested using an autoregressive integrated moving average model with exogenous variables (ARIMAX). Results The syphilis incidence rates have increased three-fold from 2005 to 2012. All syphilis time series showed strong seasonality and increasing long-term trend. Both ARIMA and ARIMAX models fitted and estimated syphilis incidence well. All univariate time series showed highest goodness-of-fit results with the ARIMA(0,0,1)×(0,1,1) model. Conclusion Time series analysis was an effective tool for modelling the historical and future incidence of syphilis in China. The ARIMAX model showed superior performance than the ARIMA model for the modelling of syphilis incidence. Time series correlations existed between the models for primary, secondary, tertiary, congenital and latent syphilis. PMID:26901682

  15. A comparative population-based study of prostate cancer incidence and mortality rates in Singapore, Sweden and Geneva, Switzerland from 1973 to 2006

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chen Cynthia

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Prostate cancer is the most commonly diagnosed malignancy in men in Sweden and Geneva, and the third most common in men in Singapore. This population-based study describes trends in the incidence and mortality rates of prostate cancer in Singapore, Sweden and Geneva (Switzerland from 1973 to 2006 and explores possible explanations for these different trends. Methods Data from patients diagnosed with prostate cancer were extracted from national cancer registries in Singapore (n = 5,172, Sweden (n = 188,783 and Geneva (n = 5,755 from 1973 to 2006. Trends of incidence and mortality were reported using the Poisson and negative binomial regression models. The age, period and birth-cohort were tested as predictors of incidence and mortality rates of prostate cancer. Results Incidence rates of prostate cancer increased over all time periods for all three populations. Based on the age-period-cohort analysis, older age and later period of diagnosis were associated with a higher incidence of prostate cancer, whereas older age and earlier period were associated with higher mortality rates for prostate cancer in all three countries. Conclusions This study demonstrated an overall increase in incidence rates and decrease in mortality rates in Singapore, Sweden and Geneva. Both incidence and mortality rates were much lower in Singapore. The period effect is a stronger predictor of incidence and mortality of prostate cancer than the birth-cohort effect.

  16. Why the tuberculosis incidence rate is not falling in New Zealand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Das, Dilip; Baker, Michael; Venugopal, Kamalesh; McAllister, Susan

    2006-10-13

    To assess the role of migration from high-incidence countries, HIV/AIDS infection, and prevalence of multi-drug resistant organisms as contributors to tuberculosis (TB) incidence in New Zealand (NZ) relative to ongoing local transmission and reactivation of disease. TB notification data and laboratory data for the period 1995 to 2004 and population data from the 1996 and 2001 Census were used to calculate incidence rates of TB by age and ethnicity, country of birth (distinguishing high and low -incidence countries), and interval between migration and onset of disease. Published reports of multi-drug-resistant TB for the period 1995 to 2004 were reviewed. Anonymous HIV surveillance data held by AIDS Epidemiology Group were matched with coded and anonymised TB surveillance data to measure the extent of HIV/AIDS coinfection in notified TB cases. Migration of people from high-TB incidence countries is the main source of TB in NZ. Of those who develop TB, a quarter does so within a year of migration, and a quarter of this group (mainly refugees) probably enter the country with pre-existing disease. Rates of local TB transmission and reactivation of old disease are declining steadily for NZ-born populations, except for NZ-born Maori and Pacific people under 40. HIV/AIDS and multi-drug-resistant organisms are not significant contributors to TB incidence in NZ and there is no indication that their role is increasing. TB incidence is not decreasing in NZ mainly due to migration of TB infected people from high-incidence countries and subsequent development of active disease in some of them in NZ. This finding emphasises the importance of regional and global TB control initiatives. Refugees and migrants are not acting as an important source of TB for most NZ-born populations. Those caring for them should have a high level of clinical suspicion for TB.

  17. Incidence rates of asthma, rhinitis and eczema symptoms and influential factors in young children in Sweden

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsson, M.; Hagerhed-Engman, L.; Sigsgaard, T.

    2008-01-01

    questionnaire based on an ISAAC protocol to all children in the age of 1-6 years. Five years later a follow-up questionnaire was sent to the children that were 1-3 years at baseline. In total, 4779 children (response rate = 73%) participated in both surveys and constitute the study population in this cohort...... study. Results: The 5-year incidence of doctor-diagnosed asthma was 4.9% (95% CI 4.3-5.3), rhinitis was 5.7% (5.0-6.4) and eczema was 13.4% (12.3-14.5). However, incidence rates strongly depend on the health status of the baseline population. Risk factors for incident asthma were male gender and short...... period of breast-feeding. Allergic symptoms in parents were also a strong risk factor for incident asthma, as well as for rhinitis and eczema. Conclusion: When comparing incident rates of asthma between different studies it is important to realize that different definitions of the healthy baseline...

  18. Cancer incidence rates and trends among children and adolescents in Piedmont, 1967-2011.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Isaevska, Elena; Manasievska, Milena; Alessi, Daniela; Mosso, Maria Luisa; Magnani, Corrado; Sacerdote, Carlotta; Pastore, Guido; Fagioli, Franca; Merletti, Franco; Maule, Milena

    2017-01-01

    In the past, increases in childhood cancer incidence were reported in Europe and North America. The aim of this study is to show updated patterns of temporal behavior using data of the Childhood Cancer Registry of Piedmont (CCRP), a region with approximately 4.5 million inhabitants in North-West Italy. CCRP has been recording incident cases in children (0-14 years) since 1967 and in adolescents (15-19) since 2000. Time trends were estimated as annual percent change (APC) over the 1976-2011 period for children, and over 2000-2011 for both children and adolescents. CCRP registered 5020 incident cases from 1967 to 2011. Incidence rates were 157 per million person-years for children (1967-2011) and 282 for adolescents (2000-2011). From 1976-2011, increasing trends were observed in children for all neoplasms (APC 1.1, 95%CI: 0.8; 1.5) and for both embryonal and non-embryonal tumors: 1.1%, (0.5; 1.6) and 1.2%, (0.7; 1.6), respectively. Increases were observed in several tumor types, including leukemia, lymphoma, central nervous system tumors and neuroblastoma. In 2000-2011, incidence rates showed mostly non statistically significant variations and large variability. The observation of trends over a long period shows that the incidence of most tumors has increased, and this is only partially explained by diagnostic changes. Large rate variability hampers interpretation of trend patterns in short periods. Given that no satisfying explanation for the increases observed in the past was ever found, efforts must be made to understand and interpret this peculiar and still ununderstood pattern of childhood cancer incidence.

  19. Cancer incidence rates and trends among children and adolescents in Piedmont, 1967-2011.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elena Isaevska

    Full Text Available In the past, increases in childhood cancer incidence were reported in Europe and North America. The aim of this study is to show updated patterns of temporal behavior using data of the Childhood Cancer Registry of Piedmont (CCRP, a region with approximately 4.5 million inhabitants in North-West Italy. CCRP has been recording incident cases in children (0-14 years since 1967 and in adolescents (15-19 since 2000. Time trends were estimated as annual percent change (APC over the 1976-2011 period for children, and over 2000-2011 for both children and adolescents. CCRP registered 5020 incident cases from 1967 to 2011. Incidence rates were 157 per million person-years for children (1967-2011 and 282 for adolescents (2000-2011. From 1976-2011, increasing trends were observed in children for all neoplasms (APC 1.1, 95%CI: 0.8; 1.5 and for both embryonal and non-embryonal tumors: 1.1%, (0.5; 1.6 and 1.2%, (0.7; 1.6, respectively. Increases were observed in several tumor types, including leukemia, lymphoma, central nervous system tumors and neuroblastoma. In 2000-2011, incidence rates showed mostly non statistically significant variations and large variability. The observation of trends over a long period shows that the incidence of most tumors has increased, and this is only partially explained by diagnostic changes. Large rate variability hampers interpretation of trend patterns in short periods. Given that no satisfying explanation for the increases observed in the past was ever found, efforts must be made to understand and interpret this peculiar and still ununderstood pattern of childhood cancer incidence.

  20. Inflation Rate Modelling in Indonesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rezzy Eko Caraka

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The purposes of this research were to analyse: (i Modelling the inflation rate in Indonesia with parametric regression. (ii Modelling the inflation rate in Indonesia using non-parametric regression spline multivariable (iii Determining the best model the inflation rate in Indonesia (iv Explaining the relationship inflation model parametric and non-parametric regression spline multivariable. Based on the analysis using the two methods mentioned the coefficient of determination (R2 in parametric regression of 65.1% while non-parametric amounted to 99.39%. To begin with, the factor of money supply or money stock, crude oil prices and the rupiah exchange rate against the dollar is significant on the rate of inflation. The stability of inflation is essential to support sustainable economic development and improve people's welfare. In conclusion, unstable inflation will complicate business planning business activities, both in production and investment activities as well as in the pricing of goods and services produced.DOI: 10.15408/etk.v15i2.3260

  1. Oral cancer incidence and survival rates in the Republic of Ireland, 1994-2009.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Ali, Hala

    2016-12-20

    Oral cancer is a significant public health problem world-wide and exerts high economic, social, psychological, and physical burdens on patients, their families, and on their primary care providers. We set out to describe the changing trends in incidence and survival rates of oral cancer in Ireland between 1994 and 2009.

  2. Association Between Heart Rate at Rest and Incident Atrial Fibrillation (from the Copenhagen Electrocardiographic Study)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Skov, Morten W; Bachmann, Troels N; Rasmussen, Peter V.

    2016-01-01

    Heart rate (HR) at rest is a well-known marker of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. Results on the association between HR and incident atrial fibrillation (AF) have, however, been conflicting. Using digital electrocardiograms from 281,451 primary care patients, we aimed to describe...

  3. Evaluation of the impact of disease prevention measures: a methodological note on defining incidence rates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yin-Bun Cheung

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In studies of recurrent events, it is common to consider a person who has suffered a disease episode and received curative treatment to be not at risk of suffering a new episode for a duration of time. It is a common practice to deduct this duration from the person’s observation time in the statistical analysis of the incidence data. Methods We examined the concepts of incidence and protective efficacy from a real life point of view. We developed simple formulae to show the relationship between the incidence rate and protective efficacy between analyses with and without deducting the curative treatment time from the observation time. We used a malaria chemoprevention and a malaria vaccine study, both previously published, to illustrate the differences. Results Applying the formulae we derived to a range of disease incidence that covered the two case studies, we demonstrated the divergence of the two sets of estimates when incidence rate is approximately 1 per person-year or higher. In the malaria chemoprevention study, incidence was 5.40 per person-year after the deduction of curative treatment time from observation time but 4.48 per person-year without the deduction. The chemoprevention offered 56.6 and 50.7% protection calculated with and without the deduction, respectively. In the malaria vaccine study, where disease incidence was much lower than one, the results between the two ways of analysis were similar. For answering real life questions about disease burden in the population in a calendar year and the reduction that may be achieved if an intervention is implemented, the definition without deduction of curative treatment time should be used. Conclusions The practice of deducting curative treatment time from observation time is not wrong, but it is not always the best approach. Investigators should consider the appropriateness of the two analytic procedures in relation to the specific research aims and the intended

  4. Association of arsenic exposure with lung cancer incidence rates in the United States.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joseph J Putila

    Full Text Available Although strong exposure to arsenic has been shown to be carcinogenic, its contribution to lung cancer incidence in the United States is not well characterized. We sought to determine if the low-level exposures to arsenic seen in the U.S. are associated with lung cancer incidence after controlling for possible confounders, and to assess the interaction with smoking behavior.Measurements of arsenic stream sediment and soil concentration obtained from the USGS National Geochemical Survey were combined, respectively, with 2008 BRFSS estimates on smoking prevalence and 2000 U.S. Census county level income to determine the effects of these factors on lung cancer incidence, as estimated from respective state-wide cancer registries and the SEER database. Poisson regression was used to determine the association between each variable and age-adjusted county-level lung cancer incidence. ANOVA was used to assess interaction effects between covariates.Sediment levels of arsenic were significantly associated with an increase in incident cases of lung cancer (P<0.0001. These effects persisted after controlling for smoking and income (P<0.0001. Across the U.S., exposure to arsenic may contribute to up to 5,297 lung cancer cases per year. There was also a significant interaction between arsenic exposure levels and smoking prevalence (P<0.05.Arsenic was significantly associated with lung cancer incidence rates in the U.S. after controlling for smoking and income, indicating that low-level exposure to arsenic is responsible for excess cancer cases in many parts of the U.S. Elevated county smoking prevalence strengthened the association between arsenic exposure and lung cancer incidence rate, an effect previously unseen on a population level.

  5. Toward a better understanding of the comparatively high prostate cancer incidence rates in Utah.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merrill, Ray M; Hilton, Sterling C; Wiggins, Charles L; Sturgeon, Jared D

    2003-04-29

    This study assesses whether comparatively high prostate cancer incidence rates among white men in Utah represent higher rates among members of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints (LDS or Mormons), who comprise about 70% of the state's male population, and considers the potential influence screening has on these rates. Analyses are based on 14,693 histologically confirmed invasive prostate cancer cases among men aged 50 years and older identified through the Utah Cancer Registry between 1985 and 1999. Cancer records were linked to LDS Church membership records to determine LDS status. Poisson regression was used to derive rate ratios of LDS to nonLDS prostate cancer incidence, adjusted for age, disease stage, calendar time, and incidental detection. LDS men had a 31% (95% confidence interval, 26%-36%) higher incidence rate of prostate cancer than nonLDS men during the study period. Rates were consistently higher among LDS men over time (118% in 1985-88, 20% in 1989-92, 15% in 1993-1996, and 13% in 1997-99); age (13% in ages 50-59, 48% in ages 60-69, 28% in ages 70-79, and 16% in ages 80 and older); and stage (36% in local/regional and 17% in unstaged). An age- and stage-shift was observed for both LDS and nonLDS men, although more pronounced among LDS men. Comparatively high prostate cancer incidence rates among LDS men in Utah are explained, at least in part, by more aggressive screening among these men.

  6. Asymmetric diffusion model for oblique-incidence reflectometry

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yaqin Chen; Liji Cao; Liqun Sun

    2011-01-01

    A diffusion theory model induced by a line source distribution is presented for oblique-incidence reflectom-etry. By fitting to this asymmetric diffusion model, the absorption and reduced scattering coefficients μa and μ's of the turbid medium can both be determined with accuracy of 10% from the absolute profile of the diffuse reflectance in the incident plane at the negative position -1.5 transport mean free path (mfp') away from the incident point; particularly, μ's can be estimated from the data at positive positions within 0-1.0 mfp' with 10% accuracy. The method is verified by Monte Carlo simulations and experimentally tested on a phantom.%A diffusion theory model induced by a line source distribution is presented for oblique-incidence reflectometry.By fitting to this asymmetric diffusion model,the absorption and reduced scattering coefficients μa and μ's of the turbid medium can both be determined with accuracy of 10% from the absolute profile of the diffuse reflectance in the incident plane at the negative position -1.5 transport mean free path (mfp')away from the incident point;particularly,μ's can be estimated from the data at positive positions within 0-1.0 mfp' with 10% accuracy.The method is verified by Monte Carlo simulations and experimentally tested on a phantom.Knowledge about the optical properties,including the absorption coefficient (μa) and the reduced scattering coefficient (μ's =μs(1-g)),where μs is the scattering coefficient and g is the anisotropy factor of scattering,of biological tissues plays an important role for optical therapeutic and diagnostic techniques in medicine.

  7. A review of fatal accident incidence rate trends in fishing international

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Olaf; Pétursdóttir, G; Abrahamsen, Annbjørg

    2014-01-01

    Background. Injury prevention in fishing is one of the most important occupational health challenges. The aim was to describe and compare internationally the trends of the fatal injury incidence rates and to discuss the impact of the implemented safety programs. Methods. The review is based...... on journal articles and reports from the maritime authorities in Poland, UK, Norway, Iceland, Denmark, US and Alaska and Canada. The original incidence rates were recalculated as per 1000 person-years for international comparison of the trends. Results. The risk of fatal accidents in fishing in the northern...... countries has been reduced by around 50% to an average of about 1 per 1000 person-years. Norway and Canada keep the lowest rates with around 0.5 and 0.25 per 1000 person-years. About half of the fatal injuries are related to vessel disasters and drowning. The safety programs seem to have good effects still...

  8. Spatio-temporal modelling of dengue fever incidence in Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Che-Him, Norziha; Ghazali Kamardan, M.; Saifullah Rusiman, Mohd; Sufahani, Suliadi; Mohamad, Mahathir; @ Kamariah Kamaruddin, Nafisah

    2018-04-01

    Previous studies reported significant relationship between dengue incidence rate (DIR) and both climatic and non-climatic factors. Therefore, this study proposes a generalised additive model (GAM) framework for dengue risk in Malaysia by using both climatic and non-climatic factors. The data used is monthly DIR for 12 states of Malaysia from 2001 to 2009. In this study, we considered an annual trend, seasonal effects, population, population density and lagged DIR, rainfall, temperature, number of rainy days and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The population density is found to be positively related to monthly DIR. There are generally weak relationships between monthly DIR and climate variables. A negative binomial GAM shows that there are statistically significant relationships between DIR with climatic and non-climatic factors. These include mean rainfall and temperature, the number of rainy days, sea surface temperature and the interaction between mean temperature (lag 1 month) and sea surface temperature (lag 6 months). These also apply to DIR (lag 3 months) and population density.

  9. Attenuated Heart Rate Recovery After Exercise Testing and Risk of Incident Hypertension in Men.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jae, Sae Young; Bunsawat, Kanokwan; Fadel, Paul J; Fernhall, Bo; Choi, Yoon-Ho; Park, Jeong Bae; Franklin, Barry A

    2016-09-01

    Although attenuated heart rate recovery (HRR) and reduced heart rate (HR) reserve to maximal exercise testing are associated with adverse cardiovascular outcomes, their relation to incident hypertension in healthy normotensive populations is unclear. We examined the hypothesis that both attenuated HRR and reduced HR reserve to exercise testing are associated with incident hypertension in men. A total of 1,855 participants were selected comprising of healthy, initially normotensive men who underwent peak or symptom-limited treadmill testing at baseline. HRR was calculated as the difference between peak HR during exercise testing and the HR at 2 minutes after exercise cessation. HR reserve was calculated as the percentage of HR reserve (peak HR - resting HR)/(220 - age - resting HR) × 100. During an average 4-year follow-up, 179 (9.6%) men developed hypertension. Incident hypertension was associated with HRR quartiles (Q1 (57 bpm) 8.3%; P = 0.05 for trend). The relative risk (RR) of the incident hypertension in the slowest HRR quartile vs. the fastest HRR quartile was 1.78 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.14-2.78) after adjustment for confounders. Every 1 bpm increment in HRR was associated with a 2% (RR 0.98, 95% CI: 0.97-0.99) lower risk of incident hypertension after adjusting for potential confounders. In contrast, reduced HR reserve did not predict the risk of incident hypertension. Slow HRR after exercise testing is independently associated with the development of hypertension in healthy normotensive men. © American Journal of Hypertension, Ltd 2016. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  10. Hidden Breast Cancer Disparities in Asian Women: Disaggregating Incidence Rates by Ethnicity and Migrant Status

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quach, Thu; Horn-Ross, Pamela L.; Pham, Jane T.; Cockburn, Myles; Chang, Ellen T.; Keegan, Theresa H. M.; Glaser, Sally L.; Clarke, Christina A.

    2010-01-01

    Objectives. We estimated trends in breast cancer incidence rates for specific Asian populations in California to determine if disparities exist by immigrant status and age. Methods. To calculate rates by ethnicity and immigrant status, we obtained data for 1998 through 2004 cancer diagnoses from the California Cancer Registry and imputed immigrant status from Social Security Numbers for the 26% of cases with missing birthplace information. Population estimates were obtained from the 1990 and 2000 US Censuses. Results. Breast cancer rates were higher among US- than among foreign-born Chinese (incidence rate ratio [IRR] = 1.84; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.72, 1.96) and Filipina women (IRR = 1.32; 95% CI = 1.20, 1.44), but similar between US- and foreign-born Japanese women. US-born Chinese and Filipina women who were younger than 55 years had higher rates than did White women of the same age. Rates increased over time in most groups, as high as 4% per year among foreign-born Korean and US-born Filipina women. From 2000–2004, the rate among US-born Filipina women exceeded that of White women. Conclusions. These findings challenge the notion that breast cancer rates are uniformly low across Asians and therefore suggest a need for increased awareness, targeted cancer control, and research to better understand underlying factors. PMID:20147696

  11. Estimates of global HIV/AIDS mortality, prevalence and incidence rates, and their association with the Human Development Index

    OpenAIRE

    Kamyar Mansori; Erfan Ayubi; Fatemeh Khosravi Shadmani; Shiva Mansouri Hanis; Somayeh Khazaei; Mohadeseh Sani; Yousef Moradi; Salman Khazaei; Abolfazl Mohammadbeigi

    2017-01-01

    Background: HIV/AIDS is one of greatest global public health concerns today due to the high incidence, prevalence and mortality rates. The aim of this research was investigate and estimate the global HIV/AIDS mortality, prevalence and incidence rates, and explore their associations with the Human Development Index. Methods: The global age-standardized rates of mortality, prevalence and incidence of HIV/AIDS were obtained from the UNAIDS for different countries in 2015. The human developm...

  12. Incidence and prevalence rates of diabetes mellitus in Taiwan: Analysis of the 2000–2009 Nationwide Health Insurance database

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yi-Der Jiang

    2012-11-01

    Conclusion: The incidence of diabetes, including type 1, remained stable over this 10-year period in Taiwan. However, the incidence rate in men aged 20–59 years was higher than that in age-matched women. With our nationwide database, subgroup analysis of DM incidence can be performed to refine our health policies for the prevention, screening, and treatment of diabetes mellitus.

  13. Incident solar radiation and coronary heart disease mortality rates in Europe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wong, Alfred

    2008-01-01

    The reported low mortality rate from coronary heart disease in Portugal, Spain, Italy, Greece, and France, to a lesser extent, has been attributed in numerous nutritional studies to the consumption of a Mediterranean-type diet. There are still many unresolved issues about the direct causal effect of the Mediterranean dietary regime on low incidence of coronary heart disease. An analysis of coronary heart disease mortality rates in Europe from a latitudinal gradient perspective has shown to have a close correlation to incident solar radiation. It is surmised that the resulting increased in situ biosynthesis of Vitamin D 3 could be the critical missing confounder in the analysis of the beneficial health outcome of the Mediterranean diet

  14. Incidence rates and trends of hip/femur fractures in five European countries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Requena, G; Abbing-Karahagopian, V; Huerta, C

    2014-01-01

    Hip fractures represent a major public health challenge worldwide. Multinational studies using a common methodology are scarce. We aimed to estimate the incidence rates (IRs) and trends of hip/femur fractures over the period 2003-2009 in five European countries. The study was performed using seven......, P European countries. With the exception of Denmark, no decreasing trend was observed over the study period....

  15. Incidence Rates of Deliberate Self-Harm in Denmark 1994–2011

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Morthorst, Britt Reuter; Soegaard, Bodil; Nordentoft, Merete

    2016-01-01

    Background: The validity and reliability of suicide statistics have been questioned and few nationwide studies of deliberate selfharm have been presented. Aim: To calculate rates of deliberate self-harm in Denmark in order to investigate trends and assess the reliability of hospital records...... incidence of deliberate self-harm among young Danish women was observed, despite detection bias. An improved registration procedure of suicidal behavior is needed....

  16. New onset of insomnia in hospitalized patients in general medical wards: incidence, causes, and resolution rate

    OpenAIRE

    Ho, An; Raja, Bronson; Waldhorn, Richard; Baez, Valentina; Mohammed, Idiris

    2017-01-01

    ABSTRACT Background: Insomnia is common in hospitalized patients. However, no study has examined new onset of insomnia in patients without a prior history of insomnia. Objectives: Incidence of new onset of insomnia in inpatients, associated factors and resolution rate after 2 weeks. Method: This is a prospective observational study conducted at a community hospital. We used the Insomnia Severity Index questionnaire to screen for insomnia in all patients located in the general medical floors f...

  17. National HIV/AIDS mortality, prevalence, and incidence rates are associated with the Human Development Index.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lou, Li-Xia; Chen, Yi; Yu, Chao-Hui; Li, You-Ming; Ye, Juan

    2014-10-01

    HIV/AIDS is a worldwide threat to human health with mortality, prevalence, and incidence rates varying widely. We evaluated the association between the global HIV/AIDS epidemic and national socioeconomic development. We obtained global age-standardized HIV/AIDS mortality, prevalence, and incidence rates from World Health Statistics Report of the World Health Organization. The human development indexes (HDIs) of 141 countries were obtained from a Human Development Report. Countries were divided into 4 groups according to the HDI distribution. We explored the association between HIV/AIDS epidemic and HDI information using Spearman correlation analysis, regression analysis, and the Kruskal-Wallis test. HIV/AIDS mortality, prevalence, and incidence rates were inversely correlated with national HDI (r = -0.675, -0.519, and -0.398, respectively; P birth, mean years of schooling, expected years of schooling, and gross national income per capita). Low HDI countries had higher HIV/AIDS mortality, prevalence, and incidence rates than that of medium, high, and very high HDI countries. Quantile regression results indicated that HDI had a greater negative effect on the HIV/AIDS epidemic in countries with more severe HIV/AIDS epidemic. Less-developed countries are likely to have more severe HIV/AIDS epidemic. There is a need to pay more attention to HIV/AIDS control in less-developed countries, where lower socioeconomic status might have accelerated the HIV/AIDS epidemic more rapidly. Copyright © 2014 Association for Professionals in Infection Control and Epidemiology, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Trends in the incidence rate, type and treatment of surgically verified endometriosis - a nationwide cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saavalainen, Liisu; Tikka, Tuulia; But, Anna; Gissler, Mika; Haukka, Jari; Tiitinen, Aila; Härkki, Päivi; Heikinheimo, Oskari

    2018-01-01

    To study the trends in incidence rate, type and surgical treatment, and patient characteristics of surgically verified endometriosis during 1987-2012. This is a register-based cohort study. We identified women receiving their first diagnosis of endometriosis in surgery from the Finnish Hospital Discharge Register (FHDR). Quality of the FHDR records was assessed bidirectionally. The age-standardized incidence rates of the first surgically verified endometriosis was assessed by calendar year. The cohort comprises 49 956 women. The quality assessment suggested the FHDR data to be of good quality. The most common diagnosis, ovarian endometriosis (46%), was associated with highest median age 38.5 years (interquartile range 31.0-44.8) and the second most common diagnosis, peritoneal endometriosis (40%), with median age 34.9 years (28.6-41.7). Between 1987 and 2012, a decrease was observed in the median age, from 38.8 (32.3-43.6) to 34.0 (28.9-41.0) years, and in the age-standardized incidence rate from 116 [95% confidence interval (CI) 112-121] to 45 (42-48) per 100 000 women. The proportion of hysterectomy as a first surgical treatment decreased from 38 to 19%, whereas that of laparoscopy increased from 42 to 73% when comparing 1987-1995 with 1996-2012. This nationwide cohort of surgically verified endometriosis showed a decrease in the incidence rate and in the patient age at the time of first diagnosis, even though the proportion of laparoscopy has increased. The number of hysterectomies has decreased. These changes are likely to reflect the evolving diagnostics, increasing awareness of endometriosis, and effective use of medical treatment before surgery. © 2017 Nordic Federation of Societies of Obstetrics and Gynecology.

  19. Decreasing fertility rate correlates with the chronological increase and geographical variation in incidence of Kawasaki disease in Japan.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yoshiro Nagao

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Kawasaki disease (KD is a common cause of acquired paediatric heart disease in developed countries. KD was first identified in the 1960s in Japan, and has been steadily increasing since it was first reported. The aetiology of KD has not been defined, but is assumed to be infection-related. The present study sought to identify the factor(s that mediate the geographical variation and chronological increase of KD in Japan. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Based upon data reported between 1979 and 2010 from all 47 prefectures in Japan, the incidence and mean patient age at the onset of KD were estimated. Using spatial and time-series analyses, incidence and mean age were regressed against climatic/socioeconomic variables. Both incidence and mean age of KD were inversely correlated with the total fertility rate (TFR; i.e., the number of children that would be born to one woman. The extrapolation of a time-series regressive model suggested that KD emerged in the 1960s because of a dramatic decrease in TFR in the 1940s through the 1950s. CONCLUSIONS: Mean patient age is an inverse surrogate for the hazard of contracting the aetiologic agent. Therefore, the observed negative correlation between mean patient age and TFR suggests that a higher TFR is associated with KD transmission. This relationship may be because a higher TFR facilitates sibling-to-sibling transmission. Additionally, the observed inverse correlation between incidence and TFR implies a paradoxical "negative" correlation between the incidence and the hazard of contracting the aetiologic agent. It was hypothesized that a decreasing TFR resulted in a reduced hazard of contracting the agent for KD, thereby increasing KD incidence.

  20. [Incidence rate of adverse reaction/event by Qingkailing injection: a Meta-analysis of single rate].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ai, Chun-ling; Xie, Yan-ming; Li, Ming-quan; Wang, Lian-xin; Liao, Xing

    2015-12-01

    To systematically review the incidence rate of adverse drug reaction/event by Qingkailing injection. Such databases as the PubMed, EMbase, the Cochrane library, CNKI, VIP WanFang data and CBM were searched by computer from foundation to July 30, 2015. Two reviewers independently screened literature according to the inclusion and exclusion criteria, extracted data and cross check data. Then, Meta-analysis was performed by using the R 3.2.0 software, subgroup sensitivity analysis was performed based on age, mode of medicine, observation time and research quality. Sixty-three studies involving 9,793 patients with Qingkailing injection were included, 367 cases of adverse reactions/events were reported in total. The incidence rate of adverse reaction in skin and mucosa group was 2% [95% CI (0.02; 0.03)]; the digestive system adverse reaction was 6% [95% CI(0.05; 0.07); the injection site adverse reaction was 4% [95% CI (0.02; 0.07)]. In the digestive system as the main types of adverse reactions/events, incidence of children and adults were 4.6% [0.021 1; 0.097 7] and 6.9% [0.053 5; 0.089 8], respectively. Adverse reactions to skin and mucous membrane damage as the main performance/event type, the observation time > 7 days and ≤ 7 days incidence of 3% [0.012 9; 0.068 3] and 1.9% [0.007 8; 0.046 1], respectively. Subgroup analysis showed that different types of adverse reactions, combination in the incidence of adverse reactions/events were higher than that of single drug, the difference was statistically significant (P reactions occur, and clinical rational drug use, such as combination, age and other fators, and the influence factors vary in different populations. Therefore, clinical doctors for children and the elderly use special care was required for a clear and open spirit injection, the implementation of individualized medication.

  1. The indoor air and children's health study: methods and incidence rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marbury, M C; Maldonado, G; Waller, L

    1996-03-01

    The Indoor Air and Children's Health Study is a prospective cohort study of the relation between indoor air pollution and lower respiratory illness (LRI) during the first 2 years of life. Information on family and household characteristics was obtained from a health maintenance organization for 1,424 infants enrolled at birth. Data on LRI were abstracted from medical records. The incidence of all LRI was 48.4 per 100 child-years. Wheezing-associated respiratory illness (WARI)/asthma was the most common specific LRI, with an incidence of 11.5 per 100 child-years. Total LRI incidence was lowest during the first 6 months of life. Girls had lower incidence than boys [rate ratio (RR) = 0.8; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.7-0.8)]. With the exception of croup, all LRI were most common during February and March. These results are comparable with those of other prospective studies. Consistent with other studies, self-reported maternal smoking demonstrated an RR of 1.5 (95% CI = 1.2-1.8) for total LRI, but the association varied for specific LRIs from 2.3 (95% CI = 1.5-3.0) for WARI/asthma to 1.0 (95% CI = 0.7-1.6) for bronchitis.

  2. Lung cancer incidence after exposure of rats to low doses of radon: influence of dose rate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Morlier, J.P.; Morin, M.; Monchaux, G.; Fritsch, P.; Lafuma, J.; Masse, R. [CEA Centre d`Etudes Nucleaires de Fontenay-aux-Roses, 92 (France). Dept. de Protection Technique; Pineau, J.F. [ALGADE, Bessines (France); Chameaud, J. [Compagnie Generale des Matieres Nucleaires (COGEMA), 87 - Razes (France)

    1994-12-31

    To study the effect on lung cancer incidence of a long exposure to low levels of radon, 500 male 3-months-old Sprague-Dawley rats, were exposed to a cumulative dose of 25 WLM of radon and its daughters, 6 hours a day, 5 days a week, during 18 months. Exposure conditions were controlled in order to maintain a defined PAEC: 42 x 10{sup 6} J.m{sup -3} (2 WL), in the range of domestic and environmental exposures. Animals were kept until they died or given euthanasia when moribund. Mean survival times were similar in both irradiated and control groups: 828 days (SD = 169) and 830 days (SD = 137), as well as lung cancer incidence, 0.60% at 25 WLM and 0.63% for controls. The incidence of lung lesions was compared statistically with controls and those previously obtained at cumulative exposures of 25 and 50 WLM delivered over a 4-6 month period, inducing a significant increase of lung cancer, 2.2% and 3.8% respectively. Such a comparison showed a decreased lung cancer incidence related to a decrease in the dose rate for low levels of radon exposure. (author).

  3. Lung cancer incidence after exposure of rats to low doses of radon: influence of dose rate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morlier, J.P.; Morin, M.; Monchaux, G.; Fritsch, P.; Lafuma, J.; Masse, R.; Chameaud, J.

    1994-01-01

    To study the effect on lung cancer incidence of a long exposure to low levels of radon, 500 male 3-months-old Sprague-Dawley rats, were exposed to a cumulative dose of 25 WLM of radon and its daughters, 6 hours a day, 5 days a week, during 18 months. Exposure conditions were controlled in order to maintain a defined PAEC: 42 x 10 6 J.m -3 (2 WL), in the range of domestic and environmental exposures. Animals were kept until they died or given euthanasia when moribund. Mean survival times were similar in both irradiated and control groups: 828 days (SD = 169) and 830 days (SD = 137), as well as lung cancer incidence, 0.60% at 25 WLM and 0.63% for controls. The incidence of lung lesions was compared statistically with controls and those previously obtained at cumulative exposures of 25 and 50 WLM delivered over a 4-6 month period, inducing a significant increase of lung cancer, 2.2% and 3.8% respectively. Such a comparison showed a decreased lung cancer incidence related to a decrease in the dose rate for low levels of radon exposure. (author)

  4. The proportional odds cumulative incidence model for competing risks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Eriksson, Frank; Li, Jianing; Scheike, Thomas

    2015-01-01

    We suggest an estimator for the proportional odds cumulative incidence model for competing risks data. The key advantage of this model is that the regression parameters have the simple and useful odds ratio interpretation. The model has been considered by many authors, but it is rarely used...... in practice due to the lack of reliable estimation procedures. We suggest such procedures and show that their performance improve considerably on existing methods. We also suggest a goodness-of-fit test for the proportional odds assumption. We derive the large sample properties and provide estimators...

  5. Effect of cardiovascular prevention strategies on incident coronary disease hospitalisation rates in Spain; an ecological time series analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medrano, María José; Alcalde-Cabero, Enrique; Ortíz, Cristina; Galán, Iñaki

    2014-02-17

    To assess the overall population impact of primary prevention strategies (promotion of healthy lifestyles, prevention of smoking and use of vascular risk drug therapy) of coronary disease in Spain. Ecological time series analysis, 1982-2009. All public and private hospitals in Spain. General population. Incident coronary disease hospitalisation as derived from official hospital discharge data. Annual hospitalisation rates were modelled according to nationwide use of statins, antihypertensive, antidiabetic and antiplatelet drugs, and prevalences of smoking, obesity and overweight. Additive generalised models and mixed Poisson regression models were used for the purpose, taking year as the random-effect variable and adjusting for age, sex, prevalence of vascular risk factors and the number of hospital beds in intensive and coronary care units. Across 28 years and 671.5 million person-years of observation, there were 2 986 834 hospitalisations due to coronary disease; of these, 1 441 980 (48.28%) were classified as incident. Hospitalisation rates increased from 1982 to 1996, with an inflection point in 1997 and a subsequent 52% decrease until 2009. Prevalences of smoking, obesity, overweight and use of vascular risk drug therapy were significantly associated with hospitalisation rates (pcrisis. Future strategies ought to lay special stress on excessive body weight prevention.

  6. Phenomenological modelling of second cancer incidence for radiation treatment planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pfaffenberger, Asja; Oelfke, Uwe; Schneider, Uwe; Poppe, Bjoern

    2009-01-01

    It is still an unanswered question whether a relatively low dose of radiation to a large volume or a higher dose to a small volume produces the higher cancer incidence. This is of interest in view of modalities like IMRT or rotation therapy where high conformity to the target volume is achieved at the cost of a large volume of normal tissue exposed to radiation. Knowledge of the shape of the dose response for radiation-induced cancer is essential to answer the question of what risk of second cancer incidence is implied by which treatment modality. This study therefore models the dose response for radiation-induced second cancer after radiation therapy of which the exact mechanisms are still unknown. A second cancer risk estimation tool for treatment planning is presented which has the potential to be used for comparison of different treatment modalities, and risk is estimated on a voxel basis for different organs in two case studies. The presented phenomenological model summarises the impact of microscopic biological processes into effective parameters of mutation and cell sterilisation. In contrast to other models, the effective radiosensitivities of mutated and non-mutated cells are allowed to differ. Based on the number of mutated cells present after irradiation, the model is then linked to macroscopic incidence by summarising model parameters and modifying factors into natural cancer incidence and the dose response in the lower-dose region. It was found that all principal dose-response functions discussed in the literature can be derived from the model. However, from the investigation and due to scarcity of adequate data, rather vague statements about likelihood of dose-response functions can be made than a definite decision for one response. Based on the predicted model parameters, the linear response can probably be rejected using the dynamics described, but both a flattening response and a decrease appear likely, depending strongly on the effective cell

  7. Cancer incidence rates in the Kurdistan region/Iraq from 2007-2009.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Othman, Ramadhan T; Abdulljabar, Rezvan; Saeed, Abdullah; Kittani, Sarwar Sadiq; Sulaiman, Hushyar M; Mohammed, Sami A; Rashid, Rekawt M; Hussein, Nawfal R

    2011-01-01

    Cancer is a disease of gradual increase in incidence overall the world. Kurdistan Region in Iraq has been exposed to several carcinogenic hazards. There are few reports about the increased risk of cancer in different cities in Iraq. These reports did not cover Kurdistan region. The aim of this paper was to study cancer incidence and to identify possible risks of cancer in this region. Cancer registries from 9 hospitals in three cities of Kurdistan were used as a source of data. Information on these cases was subjected to careful verification regarding repetition, place of residence and other possible errors. Overall registered cases in 2007, 2008 and 2009 were 1444, 2081, 2356 respectively. 49% of registered cases were males and 51% were female. The Age Standardized Rate of cancer was 89.83/100 000 among male and 83.93/100 000 among female. The results showed major variation in incidence rates of different types of cancer in the three governorates of Kurdistan. Furthermore, there was evidence of increased risks of cancer in Kurdistan Region in Iraq. Hematological malignancies were the most common cancer among male (21.13% of all cancer in males) and second most common in female (18.8% of all cancer in female), only exceeded by breast cancer. To reach sound conclusions about extent and determinants of cancer in Kurdistan, enormous multi-spectrum efforts are now needed.

  8. Autonomic modulations of heart rate variability are associated with sports injury incidence in sprint swimmers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lima-Borges, Dayanne S; Martinez, Paula F; Vanderlei, Luiz Carlos M; Barbosa, Fernando S S; Oliveira-Junior, Silvio A

    2018-03-28

    Young athletes' participation in competitive sports is becoming increasingly common, and this increased involvement raises concerns about the occurrence of overtraining and sports injuries. Since these issues are poorly understood, this study analyzed heart rate variability, stress/recovery relationship, and sports injury incidence during a training macrocycle of young sprint and endurance swimmers. Thirty teenage swimmers (aged 12 to 17 years) were divided into two groups as follows: Sprint (n = 17) and Endurance (n = 13). Subjects were evaluated over 20 weeks, based on the following three schedules: general, specific, and competitive. In addition to heart rate variability and sports injury incidence, the Recovery-Stress-Questionnaire of Athletes was used to analyse stress/recovery states in athletes. All procedures were developed at the initial moment and at the end of each periodization step. The Sprint group presented a reduced standard deviation of normal-normal beats (73.0 ± 6.6 vs. 54.1 ± 3.5 ms; p sports injury than the Endurance group (0.0214 ± 0.0068 vs. 0.0136 ± 0.0050 cases/1000 hours). Sprint training was associated with progressive activation of the sympathetic nervous system as well as a higher incidence of sports injury in comparison to endurance swimming during a training macrocycle.

  9. Prediction Model for Gastric Cancer Incidence in Korean Population.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bang Wool Eom

    Full Text Available Predicting high risk groups for gastric cancer and motivating these groups to receive regular checkups is required for the early detection of gastric cancer. The aim of this study is was to develop a prediction model for gastric cancer incidence based on a large population-based cohort in Korea.Based on the National Health Insurance Corporation data, we analyzed 10 major risk factors for gastric cancer. The Cox proportional hazards model was used to develop gender specific prediction models for gastric cancer development, and the performance of the developed model in terms of discrimination and calibration was also validated using an independent cohort. Discrimination ability was evaluated using Harrell's C-statistics, and the calibration was evaluated using a calibration plot and slope.During a median of 11.4 years of follow-up, 19,465 (1.4% and 5,579 (0.7% newly developed gastric cancer cases were observed among 1,372,424 men and 804,077 women, respectively. The prediction models included age, BMI, family history, meal regularity, salt preference, alcohol consumption, smoking and physical activity for men, and age, BMI, family history, salt preference, alcohol consumption, and smoking for women. This prediction model showed good accuracy and predictability in both the developing and validation cohorts (C-statistics: 0.764 for men, 0.706 for women.In this study, a prediction model for gastric cancer incidence was developed that displayed a good performance.

  10. A new, accurate predictive model for incident hypertension.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Völzke, Henry; Fung, Glenn; Ittermann, Till; Yu, Shipeng; Baumeister, Sebastian E; Dörr, Marcus; Lieb, Wolfgang; Völker, Uwe; Linneberg, Allan; Jørgensen, Torben; Felix, Stephan B; Rettig, Rainer; Rao, Bharat; Kroemer, Heyo K

    2013-11-01

    Data mining represents an alternative approach to identify new predictors of multifactorial diseases. This work aimed at building an accurate predictive model for incident hypertension using data mining procedures. The primary study population consisted of 1605 normotensive individuals aged 20-79 years with 5-year follow-up from the population-based study, that is the Study of Health in Pomerania (SHIP). The initial set was randomly split into a training and a testing set. We used a probabilistic graphical model applying a Bayesian network to create a predictive model for incident hypertension and compared the predictive performance with the established Framingham risk score for hypertension. Finally, the model was validated in 2887 participants from INTER99, a Danish community-based intervention study. In the training set of SHIP data, the Bayesian network used a small subset of relevant baseline features including age, mean arterial pressure, rs16998073, serum glucose and urinary albumin concentrations. Furthermore, we detected relevant interactions between age and serum glucose as well as between rs16998073 and urinary albumin concentrations [area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUC 0.76)]. The model was confirmed in the SHIP validation set (AUC 0.78) and externally replicated in INTER99 (AUC 0.77). Compared to the established Framingham risk score for hypertension, the predictive performance of the new model was similar in the SHIP validation set and moderately better in INTER99. Data mining procedures identified a predictive model for incident hypertension, which included innovative and easy-to-measure variables. The findings promise great applicability in screening settings and clinical practice.

  11. Oral primary care: an analysis of its impact on the incidence and mortality rates of oral cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rocha, Thiago Augusto Hernandes; Thomaz, Erika Bárbara Abreu Fonseca; da Silva, Núbia Cristina; de Sousa Queiroz, Rejane Christine; de Souza, Marta Rovery; Barbosa, Allan Claudius Queiroz; Thumé, Elaine; Rocha, João Victor Muniz; Alvares, Viviane; de Almeida, Dante Grapiuna; Vissoci, João Ricardo Nickenig; Staton, Catherine Ann; Facchini, Luiz Augusto

    2017-10-30

    Oral cancer is a potentially fatal disease, especially when diagnosed in advanced stages. In Brazil, the primary health care (PHC) system is responsible for promoting oral health in order to prevent oral diseases. However, there is insufficient evidence to assess whether actions of the PHC system have some effect on the morbidity and mortality from oral cancer. The purpose of this study was to analyze the effect of PHC structure and work processes on the incidence and mortality rates of oral cancer after adjusting for contextual variables. An ecological, longitudinal and analytical study was carried out. Data were obtained from different secondary data sources, including three surveys that were nationally representative of Brazilian PHC and carried out over the course of 10 years (2002-2012). Data were aggregated at the state level at different times. Oral cancer incidence and mortality rates, standardized by age and gender, served as the dependent variables. Covariables (sociodemographic, structure of basic health units, and work process in oral health) were entered in the regression models using a hierarchical approach based on a theoretical model. Analysis of mixed effects with random intercept model was also conducted (alpha = 5%). The oral cancer incidence rate was positively association with the proportion of of adults over 60 years (β = 0.59; p = 0.010) and adult smokers (β = 0.29; p = 0.010). The oral cancer related mortality rate was positively associated with the proportion of of adults over 60 years (β = 0.24; p oral cancer (β = 0.02; p = 0.002). Mortality was inversely associated with the coverage of primary care teams (β = -0.01; p oral cancer, but not the incidence rate of the disease. We recommend expanding investments in PHC in order to prevent oral cancer related deaths.

  12. Use of critical incidents to develop a rating form for resident evaluation of faculty teaching.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silber, Cynthia; Novielli, Karen; Paskin, David; Brigham, Timothy; Kairys, John; Kane, Gregory; Veloski, Jon

    2006-12-01

    Monitoring the teaching effectiveness of attending physicians is important to enhancing the quality of graduate medical education. We used a critical incident technique with 35 residents representing a cross-section of programmes in a teaching hospital to develop a 23-item rating form. We obtained ratings of 11 attending physicians in internal medicine and general surgery from 54 residents. We performed linear and logistic regression analysis to relate the items on the form to the residents' overall ratings of the attending physicians and the programme directors' ratings of the attending physicians. The residents rated the attending physicians highly in most areas, but lower in provision of feedback, clarity of written communication and cost-effectiveness in making clinical decisions. When we used the residents' overall ratings as the criterion, the most important aspects of attending physicians' teaching were clarity of written communication, cost-effectiveness, commitment of time and energy and whether the resident would refer a family member or friend to the physician. When we used the programme directors' ratings as the criterion, the additional important aspects of performance were concern for the residents' professional well-being, knowledge of the literature and the delivery of clear verbal and written communication. The critical incident technique can be used to develop an instrument that demonstrates content and construct validity. We found that residents consider commitment of time to teaching and clinical effectiveness to be the most important dimensions of faculty teaching. Other important dimensions include written and verbal communication, cost-effectiveness and concern for residents' professional development.

  13. Population Group Abortion Rates and Lifetime Incidence of Abortion: United States, 2008-2014.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Rachel K; Jerman, Jenna

    2017-12-01

    To assess the prevalence of abortion among population groups and changes in rates between 2008 and 2014. We used secondary data from the Abortion Patient Survey, the American Community Survey, and the National Survey of Family Growth to estimate abortion rates. We used information from the Abortion Patient Survey to estimate the lifetime incidence of abortion. Between 2008 and 2014, the abortion rate declined 25%, from 19.4 to 14.6 per 1000 women aged 15 to 44 years. The abortion rate for adolescents aged 15 to 19 years declined 46%, the largest of any group. Abortion rates declined for all racial and ethnic groups but were larger for non-White women than for non-Hispanic White women. Although the abortion rate decreased 26% for women with incomes less than 100% of the federal poverty level, this population had the highest abortion rate of all the groups examined: 36.6. If the 2014 age-specific abortion rates prevail, 24% of women aged 15 to 44 years in that year will have an abortion by age 45 years. The decline in abortion was not uniform across all population groups.

  14. Bayesian geostatistical modeling of leishmaniasis incidence in Brazil.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dimitrios-Alexios Karagiannis-Voules

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Leishmaniasis is endemic in 98 countries with an estimated 350 million people at risk and approximately 2 million cases annually. Brazil is one of the most severely affected countries. METHODOLOGY: We applied Bayesian geostatistical negative binomial models to analyze reported incidence data of cutaneous and visceral leishmaniasis in Brazil covering a 10-year period (2001-2010. Particular emphasis was placed on spatial and temporal patterns. The models were fitted using integrated nested Laplace approximations to perform fast approximate Bayesian inference. Bayesian variable selection was employed to determine the most important climatic, environmental, and socioeconomic predictors of cutaneous and visceral leishmaniasis. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: For both types of leishmaniasis, precipitation and socioeconomic proxies were identified as important risk factors. The predicted number of cases in 2010 were 30,189 (standard deviation [SD]: 7,676 for cutaneous leishmaniasis and 4,889 (SD: 288 for visceral leishmaniasis. Our risk maps predicted the highest numbers of infected people in the states of Minas Gerais and Pará for visceral and cutaneous leishmaniasis, respectively. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our spatially explicit, high-resolution incidence maps identified priority areas where leishmaniasis control efforts should be targeted with the ultimate goal to reduce disease incidence.

  15. [Injury rate and incidence of accidents with biological risk among infirmary students].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodríguez Martín, A; Novalbos Ruiz, J P; Costa Alonso, M J; Zafra Mezcua, J A

    2000-09-09

    A study of the incidence and characteristics of biological accidents among infirmary students during their practicals at the hospital. A retrospective study carried out at five centres by means of two questionnaires, one on the duration of the training and the rate of accidents and the other on the characteristics, precautions and ports exposure behaviour. Out of 397 students, 70,5% had accidents at a rate of 64% (CI 95%, 59-68). Of these, 15% were accidents with biological risk, the majority being jabs (39%) and splashes (32,5%). It is worth note that 49,2% occurred while putting away the material and 58% in the absence of any individual protective measures. One out of 8 accidents implied a biological risk. A very high rate of accidents was observed with important deficiencies in security.

  16. Accelerometer-Measured Moderate to Vigorous Physical Activity and Incidence Rates of Falls in Older Women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buchner, David M; Rillamas-Sun, Eileen; Di, Chongzhi; LaMonte, Michael J; Marshall, Stephen W; Hunt, Julie; Zhang, Yuzheng; Rosenberg, Dori E; Lee, I-Min; Evenson, Kelly R; Herring, Amy H; Lewis, Cora E; Stefanick, Marcia L; LaCroix, Andrea Z

    2017-11-01

    To examine whether moderate to vigorous physical activity (MVPA) measured using accelerometry is associated with incident falls and whether associations differ according to physical function or history of falls. Prospective study with baseline data collection from 2012 to 2014 and 1 year of follow-up. Women's Health Initiative participants living in the United States. Ambulatory women aged 63 to 99 (N = 5,545). Minutes of MVPA per day measured using an accelerometer, functional status measured using the Short Physical Performance Battery (SPPB), fall risk factors assessed using a questionnaire, fall injuries assessed in a telephone interview, incident falls ascertained from fall calendars. Incident rate ratios (IRRs) revealed greater fall risk in women in the lowest quartile of MVPA compared to those in the highest (IRR = 1.18, 95% confidence interval = 1.01-1.38), adjusted for age, race and ethnicity, and fall risk factors. Fall rates were not significantly associated with MVPA in women with high SPPB scores (9-12) or one or fewer falls in the previous year, but in women with low SPPB scores (≤ 8) or a history of frequent falls, fall rates were higher in women with lower MVPA levels than in those with higher levels (interaction P Falls in women with MVPA above the median were less likely to involve injuries requiring medical treatment (9.9%) than falls in women with lower MVPA levels (13.0%) (P falls are not more common or injurious in older women who engage in higher levels of MVPA. These findings support encouraging women to engage in the amounts and types of MVPA that they prefer. Older women with low physical function or frequent falls with low levels of MVPA are a high-risk group for whom vigilance about falls prevention is warranted. © 2017, Copyright the Authors Journal compilation © 2017, The American Geriatrics Society.

  17. Effect of Birth Cohort on Risk of Hip Fracture: Age-Specific Incidence Rates in the Framingham Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samelson, Elizabeth J.; Zhang, Yuqing; Kiel, Douglas P.; Hannan, Marian T.; Felson, David T.

    2002-01-01

    Objectives. This study examined the effect of birth cohort on incidence rates of hip fracture among women and men in the Framingham Study. Methods. Age-specific incidence rates of first hip fracture were presented according to tertile of year of birth for 5209 participants of the Framingham Study, a population-based cohort followed since 1948. Sex-specific incidence rate ratios were calculated by Cox regression to assess the relation between birth cohort and hip fracture incidence. Results. An increasing trend in hip fracture incidence rates was observed with year of birth for women (trend, P = .05) and men (trend, P = .03). Relative to those born from 1887 to 1900 (incidence rate ratio [IRR] = 1.0), age-specific incidence rates were greatest in the most recent birth cohort, born from 1911 to 1921 (IRR = 1.4 for women, IRR = 2.0 for men), and intermediate in those born from 1901 to 1910 (IRR = 1.2 for women, IRR = 1.5 for men). Conclusions. Results suggest risk of hip fracture is increasing for successive birth cohorts. Projections that fail to account for the increase in rates associated with birth cohort underestimate the future public health impact of hip fracture in the United States. PMID:11988460

  18. Correlation Analysis of Cocoa Consumption Data with Worldwide Incidence Rates of Testicular Cancer and Hypospadias

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fabrizio Giannandrea

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available The underlying reasons for the increasing occurrence of male reproductive diseases (MRD such as hypospadias, cryptorchidism, and testicular cancer (TC over the last decades are still unknown. It has been hypothesized that the risk of MRD is determined in utero and that pregnancy dietary intake could also affect MRD risk in the offspring. Various studies in animals reported that cocoa and theobromine, the main stimulant of cocoa, exert toxic effects on the testis, inducing testicular atrophy and impaired sperm quality. A correlation analysis was conducted to examine the possible role of cocoa consumption on the occurrence of selected MRD during the prenatal and early life period of cases. The incidence rates between 1998-2002 of TC in 18 countries obtained from Cancer Incidence in Five Continents were correlated with the average per-capita consumption of cocoa (kg/capita/year (FAOSTAT-Database in these countries from 1965 to 1980, i.e. the period corresponding to the early life of TC cases. In order to test the above correlation in the case of hypospadias, the mean prevalence at birth in 20 countries (1999-2003 with average per-capita consumption of cocoa in these countries in the same period corresponding to pregnancy were used. The consumption of cocoa in the period 1965–80, was most closely correlated with the incidence of TC in young adults (r=0.859; p<0.001. An analogous significant correlation was also observed between early cocoa consumption and the prevalence rates of hypospadias in the period 1999-2003 (r=0.760; p<0.001. Although the ecological approach used in this study cannot provide an answer on the causal relationship between consumption of cocoa in early life and TC and hypospadias, the results are suggestive and indicate the need of further analytic studies to investigate the role of individual exposure to cocoa, particularly during the prenatal and in early life of the patients.

  19. Correlation analysis of cocoa consumption data with worldwide incidence rates of testicular cancer and hypospadias.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giannandrea, Fabrizio

    2009-02-01

    The underlying reasons for the increasing occurrence of male reproductive diseases (MRD) such as hypospadias, cryptorchidism, and testicular cancer (TC) over the last decades are still unknown. It has been hypothesized that the risk of MRD is determined in utero and that pregnancy dietary intake could also affect MRD risk in the offspring. Various studies in animals reported that cocoa and theobromine, the main stimulant of cocoa, exert toxic effects on the testis, inducing testicular atrophy and impaired sperm quality. A correlation analysis was conducted to examine the possible role of cocoa consumption on the occurrence of selected MRD during the prenatal and early life period of cases. The incidence rates between 1998-2002 of TC in 18 countries obtained from Cancer Incidence in Five Continents were correlated with the average per-capita consumption of cocoa (kg/capita/year) (FAOSTAT-Database) in these countries from 1965 to 1980, i.e. the period corresponding to the early life of TC cases. In order to test the above correlation in the case of hypospadias, the mean prevalence at birth in 20 countries (1999-2003) with average per-capita consumption of cocoa in these countries in the same period corresponding to pregnancy were used. The consumption of cocoa in the period 1965-80, was most closely correlated with the incidence of TC in young adults (r=0.859; p<0.001). An analogous significant correlation was also observed between early cocoa consumption and the prevalence rates of hypospadias in the period 1999-2003 (r=0.760; p<0.001). Although the ecological approach used in this study cannot provide an answer on the causal relationship between consumption of cocoa in early life and TC and hypospadias, the results are suggestive and indicate the need of further analytic studies to investigate the role of individual exposure to cocoa, particularly during the prenatal and in early life of the patients.

  20. Dynamic Tax Incidence in a Finite Horizon Model

    OpenAIRE

    Itaya, Jun-ichi

    1992-01-01

    This paper reexamines the problem of long-run tax incidence by using a two-sector growth model in which finitely-lived individuals undertake intertemporal optimizing decisions in the presence of annuity markets. Under a constant relative risk aversion utility function, none of the selective taxes imposed on the consumption goods sector are neutral with respect to the long-run wage/profit ratio even if labor supply is fixed. This result differs significantly both from that of the infinite hori...

  1. Patients with uterine leiomyoma exhibit a high incidence but low mortality rate for breast cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Te-Chun; Hsia, Te-Chun; Hsiao, Chieh-Lun; Lin, Cheng-Li; Yang, Chih-Yi; Soh, Khay-Seng; Liu, Liang-Chih; Chang, Wen-Shin; Tsai, Chia-Wen; Bau, Da-Tian

    2017-05-16

    The association of uterine leiomyoma with increased risk of breast cancer is controversial. Therefore, we used the National Health Insurance Research Database of Taiwan to examine breast cancer incidence and mortality among Asian patients with and without uterine leiomyoma. We compared breast cancer incidence and mortality between 22,001 newly diagnosed uterine leiomyoma patients and 85,356 individuals without uterine leiomyoma matched by age and date of diagnosis. Adjusted hazard ratios for breast cancer were estimated using the Cox model. The incidence of breast cancer was 35% higher in the uterine leiomyoma group than the leiomyoma-free group (1.65 vs. 1.22 per 1,000 individuals, p leiomyoma group (mean followed time, 3.59 ± 2.70 years) than the leiomyoma-free group (8.78%; mean followed time, 3.54 ± 2.67 years) at the endpoint of the study (p leiomyoma than in those without it, but overall mortality from breast cancer was lower in the patients with uterine leiomyoma.

  2. Incidence and Cure Rate of Leprosy from 2006 to 2010 in Sinop, Mato Grosso

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Lima

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Leprosy is an infectious contagious granulomatous Mycobacterium leprae is the causative agent that affects skin cells and peripheral nerve, the reservoir is the human being, being recognized as the only source of infection. It is a public health problem in our country. In the Americas, Brazil is the most responsible for the endemic and ranks first in the absolute number of cases worldwide. It is a reportable disease, the cases should be entered in the Information System for Notifiable Diseases (SINAN. As the Ministry of Health operational classification of leprosy cases considered paucibacillary (PB and multibacillary (MB. It is important to note that this research will contribute for the strategic planning and actions regarding the prevention of leprosy. The aim of this study was to identify the incidence of reported cases of leprosy as a clinical form at Sinop - MT and the cure rate between the years 2006 to 2010. This is a quantitative research conducted by documentary SINAN with verification survey data in Sinop through compulsory notification and investigation in the period 2006-2010. The results show that, the city has a higher incidence and cure rates as Borderline leprosy. In the future, it is expected that cases even decrease gradually due to the interruption in the transmission chain with the diagnostics performed during said period.

  3. Child maltreatment hospitalisations in Hong Kong: incidence rate and seasonal pattern.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ip, Patrick; Ho, Frederick Ka-Wing; Chan, Ko Ling; Yip, Paul Siu-Fai; Lau, Joseph Tak-Fai; Wong, Wilfred Hing-Sang; Chow, Chun-Bong; Jiang, Fan

    2016-12-01

    We investigated the incidence and seasonal patterns of child maltreatment hospitalisations in Hong Kong. A retrospective study of subjects aged under 19 years with a primary diagnosis of child maltreatment admitted to hospitals in Hong Kong from 2001 to 2010. Data were retrieved from the centralised database of all 42 public hospitals in the Hospital Authority. Child maltreatment incidence rate. A consistent seasonal pattern was found for non-sexual maltreatment in children aged 6-18 years (pmaltreatment or among children under 6 years. The seasonal pattern of child maltreatment coincided with the two school examination periods. The annual child maltreatment hospitalisation rate in Hong Kong in 2010 was 73.4 per 100 000 children under 19 years, more than double that in 2001. A peculiar seasonal pattern and an alarming increasing trend in child maltreatment hospitalisation were observed in Hong Kong, which we speculated to be related to school examination stress and increasing socioeconomic disparity. Our findings highlighted differences in the trends of child maltreatment between Hong Kong and the West. Professionals and policymakers should be made aware of these trends and develop effective strategies to tackle child maltreatment. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

  4. Incidence and prevalence rates of diabetes mellitus in Saudi Arabia: An overview.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alotaibi, Abdulellah; Perry, Lin; Gholizadeh, Leila; Al-Ganmi, Ali

    2017-12-01

    This study aimed to report on the trends in incidence and prevalence rates of diabetes mellitus in Saudi Arabia over the last 25 years (1990-2015). A descriptive review. A systematic search was conducted for English-language, peer reviewed publications of any research design via Medline, EBSCO, PubMed and Scopus from 1990 to 2015. Of 106 articles retrieved, after removal of duplicates and quality appraisal, 8 studies were included in the review and synthesised based on study characteristics, design and findings. Studies originated from Saudi Arabia and applied a variety of research designs and tools to diagnosis diabetes. Of the 8 included studies; three reported type 1 diabetes and five on type 2 diabetes. Overall, findings indicated that the incidence and prevalence rate of diabetes is rising particularly among females, older children/adolescent and in urban areas. Further development are required to assess the health intervention, polices, guidelines, self-management programs in Saudi Arabia. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  5. Cancer incidence and mortality rate in children of A-bomb survivors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yoshimoto, Yasuhiko

    1992-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to summarize the previous findings of carcinogenesis and mortality rate in children born to A-bomb survivors. The Radiation Effects Research Foundation has collected 72,228 children born to A-bomb survivors from May 1946 through 1984. Of their parents, 31,159 parents had been exposed to significant doses (≥0.01 Sv), with a mean genital dose of 0.435 Sv. Among a hypothetic population of 100,000 children of A-bomb survivors exposed to an mean genital dose of 0.4 SV, radiation-induced diseases were considered to occur in only 250 children or less. An earlier large-scale survey during the period 1948-1956 has revealed an evidence of significant increase in stillborn, congenital malformation, and infantile death. In the 1946-1982 survey concerning carcinogenesis in 72,216 children of A-bomb survivors, cancer was found to be detected in 92 children, with no statistically significant increase in cancer risk with increasing radiation doses in their parents. The survey on mortality rate in 67,586 children of A-bomb survivors has revealed no evidence of significant increase in mortality rate from diseases, other than cancer, and in the incidence of lethal cancer. For A-bomb survivors, genetic doubling doses were considered to be 1 Sv or more. Further, when genetic doubling doses are calculated, the contribution rate of genital cell disturbance should be considered in the incidence of spontaneously induced disease. There is no supportive evidence of genetic effects of A-bomb radiation in children of A-bomb survivors; however, genetic effects of A-bomb radiation cannot be denied completely. Continuing survey is expected to be done for children of A-bomb survivors. (N.K.)

  6. Annual incidence rate of schizophrenia and schizophrenia spectrum disorders in a longitudinal population-based cohort study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sutterland, Arjen L.; Dieleman, Jeanne; Storosum, Jitschak G.; Voordouw, Bettie A. C.; Kroon, Jojanneke; Veldhuis, Joris; Denys, Damiaan A. J. P.; de Haan, Lieuwe; Sturkenboom, Miriam C. J. M.

    2013-01-01

    Longitudinal incidence studies of schizophrenia spectrum disorders (SSD) performed in mental health service organizations are prone to confounding factors not found in research performed in the general population. To estimate the incidence rates (IRs) over a 10-year period of SSD (broadly defined)

  7. Annual incidence rates of herpes zoster among an immunocompetent population in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Barbara H; Palmer, Liisa; Gatwood, Justin; Lenhart, Gregory; Kawai, Kosuke; Acosta, Camilo J

    2015-11-06

    Herpes zoster (HZ), also known as shingles, is a painful and commonly occurring condition in the United States. In spite of a universally recommended vaccine for use in immunocompetent adults aged 60 years and older, HZ continues to impact the American public, and a better understanding of its current incidence is needed. The objective of the current study is to estimate the overall and age- and gender-specific incidence rates (IRs) of HZ among an immunocompetent US population in 2011 following availability of a vaccine. Claims data from the Truven Health MarketScan® Research databases between 01/01/2011 and 12/31/2011 were extracted. Immunocompetent adult patients, enrolled as of January 1, 2011 were analyzed. The denominator was defined as eligible subjects who were immunocompetent, had no evidence of zoster vaccination, and no diagnosis of HZ (International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification diagnosis code 053.xx) in the 90 days prior to January 1, 2011. Subjects contributed person-days to the denominator until the occurrence of one of the following events: end of continuous enrollment in the database, a claim for zoster vaccination, diagnosis of HZ or end of the observation period (December 31, 2011). The numerator was defined as enrollees within the denominator file exhibiting evidence of HZ. Annual IRs were calculated for the entire population in the database as well as by gender and age group; standardized IRs were also produced using the 2010 US Census data. The overall annual IR of HZ across all ages was 4.47 per 1000 person-years (95% confidence interval [CI]: 4.44-4.50) which monotonically increased with age from 0.86 (95% CI: 0.84-0.88) for those aged ≤ 19 to 12.78 (95% CI: 12.49-13.07) for patients ≥ 80 years. The IR was 8.46 (95% CI: 8.39-8.52) among adults ≥ 50 years and 10.46 (95% CI: 10.35-10.56) among those aged ≥ 60 years. Women compared to men had higher HZ incidence (5.25, 95% CI: 5.21-5.29 vs. 3.66, 95

  8. Traveling waves in a delayed SIR model with nonlocal dispersal and nonlinear incidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Shou-Peng; Yang, Yun-Rui; Zhou, Yong-Hui

    2018-01-01

    This paper is concerned with traveling waves of a delayed SIR model with nonlocal dispersal and a general nonlinear incidence. The existence and nonexistence of traveling waves of the system are established respectively by Schauder's fixed point theorem and two-sided Laplace transform. It is also shown that the spread speed c is influenced by the dispersal rate of the infected individuals and the delay τ.

  9. The stochastic resonance for the incidence function model of metapopulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jiang-Cheng; Dong, Zhi-Wei; Zhou, Ruo-Wei; Li, Yun-Xian; Qian, Zhen-Wei

    2017-06-01

    A stochastic model with endogenous and exogenous periodicities is proposed in this paper on the basis of metapopulation dynamics to model the crop yield losses due to pests and diseases. The rationale is that crop yield losses occur because the physiology of the growing crop is negatively affected by pests and diseases in a dynamic way over time as crop both grows and develops. Metapopulation dynamics can thus be used to model the resultant crop yield losses. The stochastic metapopulation process is described by using the Simplified Incidence Function model (IFM). Compared to the original IFMs, endogenous and exogenous periodicities are considered in the proposed model to handle the cyclical patterns observed in pest infestations, diseases epidemics, and exogenous affecting factors such as temperature and rainfalls. Agricultural loss data in China are used to fit the proposed model. Experimental results demonstrate that: (1) Model with endogenous and exogenous periodicities is a better fit; (2) When the internal system fluctuations and external environmental fluctuations are negatively correlated, EIL or the cost of loss is monotonically increasing; when the internal system fluctuations and external environmental fluctuations are positively correlated, an outbreak of pests and diseases might occur; (3) If the internal system fluctuations and external environmental fluctuations are positively correlated, an optimal patch size can be identified which will greatly weaken the effects of external environmental influence and hence inhibit pest infestations and disease epidemics.

  10. Gynecologic cancer mortality in Trinidad and Tobago and comparisons of mortality-to-incidence rate ratios across global regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Llanos, Adana A. M.; Warner, Wayne A.; Luciani, Silvana; Lee, Tammy Y.; Bajracharya, Smriti; Slovacek, Simeon; Roach, Veronica; Lamont-Greene, Marjorie

    2018-01-01

    Purpose To examine the factors associated with gynecologic cancer mortality risks, to estimate the mortality-to-incidence rate ratios (MIR) in Trinidad and Tobago (TT), and to compare the MIRs to those of select countries. Methods Data on 3,915 incident gynecologic cancers reported to the National Cancer Registry of TT from 1 January 1995 to 31 December 2009 were analyzed using proportional hazards models to determine factors associated with mortality. MIRs for cervical, endometrial, and ovarian cancers were calculated using cancer registry data (TT), GLOBOCAN 2012 incidence data, and WHO Mortality Database 2012 data (WHO regions and select countries). Results Among the 3,915 incident gynecologic cancers diagnosed in TT during the study period, 1,795 (45.8%) were cervical, 1,259 (32.2%) were endometrial, and 861 (22.0%) were ovarian cancers. Older age, African ancestry, geographic residence, tumor stage, and treatment non-receipt were associated with increased gynecologic cancer mortality in TT. Compared to GLOBOCAN 2012 data, TT MIR estimates for cervical (0.49 vs. 0.53), endometrial (0.61 vs. 0.65), and ovarian cancers (0.32 vs. 0.48) were elevated. While the Caribbean region had intermediate gynecologic cancer MIRs, MIRs in TT were among the highest of the countries examined in the Caribbean region. Conclusions Given its status as a high-income economy, the relatively high gynecologic cancer MIRs observed in TT are striking. These findings highlight the urgent need for improved cancer surveillance, screening, and treatment for these (and other) cancers in this Caribbean nation. PMID:28917021

  11. Analysis of an HIV/AIDS treatment model with a nonlinear incidence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cai Liming; Wu Jingang

    2009-01-01

    An HIV/AIDS treatment model with a nonlinear incidence is formulated. The infectious period is partitioned into the asymptotic and the symptomatic phases according to clinical stages. The constant recruitment rate, disease-induced death, drug therapies, as well as a nonlinear incidence, are incorporated into the model. The basic reproduction number R 0 of the model is determined by the method of next generation matrix. Mathematical analysis establishes that the global dynamics of the spread of the HIV infectious disease are completely determined by the basic reproduction number R 0 . If R 0 ≤1, the disease always dies out and the disease-free equilibrium is globally stable. If R 0 >1, the disease persists and the unique endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable in the interior of the feasible region.

  12. Breast Cancer-Related Arm Lymphedema: Incidence Rates, Diagnostic Techniques, Optimal Management and Risk Reduction Strategies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shah, Chirag [Department of Radiation Oncology, William Beaumont Hospital, Royal Oak, MI (United States); Vicini, Frank A., E-mail: fvicini@beaumont.edu [Department of Radiation Oncology, William Beaumont Hospital, Royal Oak, MI (United States)

    2011-11-15

    As more women survive breast cancer, long-term toxicities affecting their quality of life, such as lymphedema (LE) of the arm, gain importance. Although numerous studies have attempted to determine incidence rates, identify optimal diagnostic tests, enumerate efficacious treatment strategies and outline risk reduction guidelines for breast cancer-related lymphedema (BCRL), few groups have consistently agreed on any of these issues. As a result, standardized recommendations are still lacking. This review will summarize the latest data addressing all of these concerns in order to provide patients and health care providers with optimal, contemporary recommendations. Published incidence rates for BCRL vary substantially with a range of 2-65% based on surgical technique, axillary sampling method, radiation therapy fields treated, and the use of chemotherapy. Newer clinical assessment tools can potentially identify BCRL in patients with subclinical disease with prospective data suggesting that early diagnosis and management with noninvasive therapy can lead to excellent outcomes. Multiple therapies exist with treatments defined by the severity of BCRL present. Currently, the standard of care for BCRL in patients with significant LE is complex decongestive physiotherapy (CDP). Contemporary data also suggest that a multidisciplinary approach to the management of BCRL should begin prior to definitive treatment for breast cancer employing patient-specific surgical, radiation therapy, and chemotherapy paradigms that limit risks. Further, prospective clinical assessments before and after treatment should be employed to diagnose subclinical disease. In those patients who require aggressive locoregional management, prophylactic therapies and the use of CDP can help reduce the long-term sequelae of BCRL.

  13. Breast Cancer-Related Arm Lymphedema: Incidence Rates, Diagnostic Techniques, Optimal Management and Risk Reduction Strategies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shah, Chirag; Vicini, Frank A.

    2011-01-01

    As more women survive breast cancer, long-term toxicities affecting their quality of life, such as lymphedema (LE) of the arm, gain importance. Although numerous studies have attempted to determine incidence rates, identify optimal diagnostic tests, enumerate efficacious treatment strategies and outline risk reduction guidelines for breast cancer–related lymphedema (BCRL), few groups have consistently agreed on any of these issues. As a result, standardized recommendations are still lacking. This review will summarize the latest data addressing all of these concerns in order to provide patients and health care providers with optimal, contemporary recommendations. Published incidence rates for BCRL vary substantially with a range of 2–65% based on surgical technique, axillary sampling method, radiation therapy fields treated, and the use of chemotherapy. Newer clinical assessment tools can potentially identify BCRL in patients with subclinical disease with prospective data suggesting that early diagnosis and management with noninvasive therapy can lead to excellent outcomes. Multiple therapies exist with treatments defined by the severity of BCRL present. Currently, the standard of care for BCRL in patients with significant LE is complex decongestive physiotherapy (CDP). Contemporary data also suggest that a multidisciplinary approach to the management of BCRL should begin prior to definitive treatment for breast cancer employing patient-specific surgical, radiation therapy, and chemotherapy paradigms that limit risks. Further, prospective clinical assessments before and after treatment should be employed to diagnose subclinical disease. In those patients who require aggressive locoregional management, prophylactic therapies and the use of CDP can help reduce the long-term sequelae of BCRL.

  14. Low incidence rate of overt hypothyroidism compared with hyperthyroidism in an area with moderately low iodine intake

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Laurberg, P; Bülow Pedersen, I; Pedersen, K M

    1999-01-01

    In areas with relatively high iodine intake, the incidence rate of hypothyroidism is several-fold higher than that of hyperthyroidism. Recently, we found a similarly high prevalence rate of subclinical hypothyroidism compared with hyperthyroidism in a high iodine intake area, while a relatively low...... prevalence of subclinical hypothyroidism was observed in a low iodine intake area. In the present study we compared the incidence rate (newly diagnosed in primary care and at hospital) of overt hypothyroidism with that of hyperthyroidism in a well-defined geographical area in Jutland, Denmark, with an iodine...... intake around 60 microg/day. The number of personsxyears studied was 569,108. Data on hyperthyroidism have been published previously. The overall incidence of hypothyroidism was 13.5/100,000 per year (F/M 22.9/3.6), hyperthyroidism 38.7/100.000 per year (F/M 63.0/13.0). The incidence of hypothyroidism...

  15. Risk factors for breast cancer in a population with high incidence rates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wrensch, Margaret; Peskin-Mentzer, Roni; Quesenberry, Charles P Jr; Souders-Mason, Virginia; Spence, Linda; Suzuki, Marisa; Gould, Mary; Chew, Terri; Farren, Georgianna; Barlow, Janice; Belli, Flavia; Clarke, Christina; Erdmann, Christine A; Lee, Marion; Moghadassi, Michelle

    2003-01-01

    This report examines generally recognized breast cancer risk factors and years of residence in Marin County, California, an area with high breast cancer incidence and mortality rates. Eligible women who were residents of Marin County diagnosed with breast cancer in 1997–99 and women without breast cancer obtained through random digit dialing, frequency-matched by cases' age at diagnosis and ethnicity, participated in either full in-person or abbreviated telephone interviews. In multivariate analyses, 285 cases were statistically significantly more likely than 286 controls to report being premenopausal, never to have used birth control pills, a lower highest lifetime body mass index, four or more mammograms in 1990–94, beginning drinking after the age of 21, on average drinking two or more drinks per day, the highest quartile of pack-years of cigarette smoking and having been raised in an organized religion. Cases and controls did not significantly differ with regard to having a first-degree relative with breast cancer, a history of benign breast biopsy, previous radiation treatment, age at menarche, parity, use of hormone replacement therapy, age of first living in Marin County, or total years lived in Marin County. Results for several factors differed for women aged under 50 years or 50 years and over. Despite similar distributions of several known breast cancer risk factors, case-control differences in alcohol consumption suggest that risk in this high-risk population might be modifiable. Intensive study of this or other areas of similarly high incidence might reveal other important risk factors proximate to diagnosis

  16. Incidence Rates of Clinical Mastitis among Canadian Holsteins Classified as High, Average, or Low Immune Responders

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miglior, Filippo; Mallard, Bonnie A.

    2013-01-01

    The objective of this study was to compare the incidence rate of clinical mastitis (IRCM) between cows classified as high, average, or low for antibody-mediated immune responses (AMIR) and cell-mediated immune responses (CMIR). In collaboration with the Canadian Bovine Mastitis Research Network, 458 lactating Holsteins from 41 herds were immunized with a type 1 and a type 2 test antigen to stimulate adaptive immune responses. A delayed-type hypersensitivity test to the type 1 test antigen was used as an indicator of CMIR, and serum antibody of the IgG1 isotype to the type 2 test antigen was used for AMIR determination. By using estimated breeding values for these traits, cows were classified as high, average, or low responders. The IRCM was calculated as the number of cases of mastitis experienced over the total time at risk throughout the 2-year study period. High-AMIR cows had an IRCM of 17.1 cases per 100 cow-years, which was significantly lower than average and low responders, with 27.9 and 30.7 cases per 100 cow-years, respectively. Low-AMIR cows tended to have the most severe mastitis. No differences in the IRCM were noted when cows were classified based on CMIR, likely due to the extracellular nature of mastitis-causing pathogens. The results of this study demonstrate the desirability of breeding dairy cattle for enhanced immune responses to decrease the incidence and severity of mastitis in the Canadian dairy industry. PMID:23175290

  17. Potential impact on HIV incidence of higher HIV testing rates and earlier antiretroviral therapy initiation in MSM

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Phillips, Andrew N; Cambiano, Valentina; Miners, Alec

    2015-01-01

    count 350/μl. We investigated what would be required to reduce HIV incidence in MSM to below 1 per 1000 person-years (i.e. cost-effective. METHODS: A dynamic, individual-based simulation model was calibrated to multiple data sources...... with viral suppression to 80%, and it would be 90%, if ART is initiated at diagnosis. The scenarios required for such a policy to be cost-effective are presented. CONCLUSION: This analysis provides targets for the proportion of all HIV-positive MSM with viral suppression required to achieve substantial......BACKGROUND: Increased rates of testing, with early antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation, represent a key potential HIV-prevention approach. Currently, in MSM in the United Kingdom, it is estimated that 36% are diagnosed by 1 year from infection, and the ART initiation threshold is at CD4 cell...

  18. Updated fracture incidence rates for the US version of FRAX (registered trademark)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evaluation of results produced by the US version of FRAX (trademarked) indicates that this tool overestimates the likelihood of major osteoporotic fracture. In an attempt to correct this, we updated underlying baseline fracture rates for the model. We used US hospital discharge data from 2006 to ca...

  19. Stochastic interest rates model in compounding | Galadima ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Stochastic interest rates model in compounding. ... in finance, real estate, insurance, accounting and other areas of business administration. The assumption that future rates are fixed and known with certainty at the beginning of an investment, ...

  20. Delayed heart rate recovery after exercise as a risk factor of incident type 2 diabetes mellitus after adjusting for glycometabolic parameters in men.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Tae Yang; Jee, Jae Hwan; Bae, Ji Cheol; Hong, Won-Jung; Jin, Sang-Man; Kim, Jae Hyeon; Lee, Moon-Kyu

    2016-10-15

    Some studies have reported that delayed heart rate recovery (HRR) after exercise is associated with incident type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). This study aimed to investigate the longitudinal association of delayed HRR following a graded exercise treadmill test (GTX) with the development of T2DM including glucose-associated parameters as an adjusting factor in healthy Korean men. Analyses including fasting plasma glucose, HOMA-IR, HOMA-β, and HbA1c as confounding factors and known confounders were performed. HRR was calculated as peak heart rate minus heart rate after a 1-min rest (HRR 1). Cox proportional hazards model was used to quantify the independent association between HRR and incident T2DM. During 9082 person-years of follow-up between 2006 and 2012, there were 180 (10.1%) incident cases of T2DM. After adjustment for age, BMI, systolic BP, diastolic BP, smoking status, peak heart rate, peak oxygen uptake, TG, LDL-C, HDL-C, fasting plasma glucose, HOMA-IR, HOMA-β, and HbA1c, the hazard ratios (HRs) [95% confidence interval (CI)] of incident T2DM comparing the second and third tertiles to the first tertile of HRR 1 were 0.867 (0.609-1.235) and 0.624 (0.426-0.915), respectively (p for trend=0.017). As a continuous variable, in the fully-adjusted model, the HR (95% CI) of incident T2DM associated with each 1 beat increase in HRR 1 was 0.980 (0.960-1.000) (p=0.048). This study demonstrated that delayed HRR after exercise predicts incident T2DM in men, even after adjusting for fasting glucose, HOMA-IR, HOMA-β, and HbA1c. However, only HRR 1 had clinical significance. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Elevated incidence rates of diabetes in Peru: report from PERUDIAB, a national urban population-based longitudinal study

    OpenAIRE

    Seclen, Segundo Nicolas; Rosas, Moises Ernesto; Arias, Arturo Jaime; Medina, Cecilia Alexandra

    2017-01-01

    Objective A recent report from a non-nationally representative, geographically diverse sample in four separate communities in Peru suggests an unusually high diabetes incidence. We aimed to estimate the national diabetes incidence rate using PERUDIAB, a probabilistic, national urban population-based longitudinal study. Research design and methods 662 subjects without diabetes, selected by multistage, cluster, random sampling of households, representing the 24 administrative and the 3 (coast, ...

  2. Stage-specific incidence rates and trends of prostate cancer by age, race, and ethnicity, United States, 2004-2014.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jun; Siegel, David A; King, Jessica B

    2018-05-01

    Current literature shows different findings on the contemporary trends of distant-stage prostate cancer incidence, in part, due to low study population coverage and wide age groupings. This study aimed to examine the stage-specific incidence rates and trends of prostate cancer by age (5-year grouping), race, and ethnicity using nationwide cancer registry data. Data on prostate cancer cases came from the 2004-2014 United States Cancer Statistics data set. We calculated stage-specific incidence and 95% confidence intervals by age (5-year age grouping), race, and ethnicity. To measure the changes in rates over time, we calculated annual percentage change (APC). We identified 2,137,054 incident prostate cancers diagnosed during 2004-2014, with an age-adjusted incidence rate of 453.8 per 100,000. Distant-stage prostate cancer incidence significantly decreased during 2004-2010 (APC = -1.2) and increased during 2010-2014 (APC = 3.3). Significant increases in distant prostate cancer incidence also occurred in men aged older than or equal to 50 years except men aged 65-74 and older than or equal to 85 years, in men with white race (APC = 3.9), and non-Hispanic ethnicity (APC = 3.5). Using data representing over 99% of U.S. population, we found that incidence rates of distant-stage prostate cancer significantly increased during 2010-2014 among men in certain ages, in white, and with non-Hispanic ethnicity. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  3. Incidence of diseases primarily affecting the skin by age group: population-based epidemiologic study in Olmsted County, Minnesota, and comparison with age-specific incidence rates worldwide.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wessman, Laurel L; Andersen, Louise K; Davis, Mark D P

    2018-01-29

    Understanding the effects of age on the epidemiology of diseases primarily affecting the skin is important to the practice of dermatology, both for proper allocation of resources and for optimal patient-centered care. To fully appreciate the effect that age may have on the population-based calculations of incidence of diseases primarily affecting the skin in Olmsted County, Minnesota, and worldwide, we performed a review of all relevant Rochester Epidemiology Project-published data and compared them to similar reports in the worldwide English literature. Using the Rochester Epidemiology Project, population-based epidemiologic studies have been performed to estimate the incidence of specific skin diseases over the past 50 years. In older persons (>65 years), nonmelanoma skin cancer, lentigo maligna, herpes zoster, delusional infestation, venous stasis syndrome, venous ulcer, and burning mouth syndrome were more commonly diagnosed. In those younger than 65 years, atypical nevi, psoriatic arthritis, pityriasis rosea, herpes progenitalis, genital warts, alopecia areata, hidradenitis suppurativa, infantile hemangioma, Behçet's disease, and sarcoidosis (isolated cutaneous, with sarcoidosis-specific cutaneous lesions and with erythema nodosum) had a higher incidence. Many of the incidence rates by age group of diseases primarily affecting the skin derived from the Rochester Epidemiology Project were similar to those reported elsewhere. © 2018 The International Society of Dermatology.

  4. Elevated incidence rates of diabetes in Peru: report from PERUDIAB, a national urban population-based longitudinal study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seclen, Segundo Nicolas; Rosas, Moises Ernesto; Arias, Arturo Jaime; Medina, Cecilia Alexandra

    2017-01-01

    A recent report from a non-nationally representative, geographically diverse sample in four separate communities in Peru suggests an unusually high diabetes incidence. We aimed to estimate the national diabetes incidence rate using PERUDIAB, a probabilistic, national urban population-based longitudinal study. 662 subjects without diabetes, selected by multistage, cluster, random sampling of households, representing the 24 administrative and the 3 (coast, highlands and jungle) natural regions across the country, from both sexes, aged 25+ years at baseline, enrolled in 2010-2012, were followed for 3.8 years. New diabetes cases were defined as fasting blood glucose ≥126 mg/dL or on medical diabetes treatment. There were 49 cases of diabetes in 2408 person-years follow-up. The weighted cumulative incidence of diabetes was 7.2% while the weighted incidence rate was estimated at 19.5 (95% CI 13.9 to 28.3) new cases per 1000 person-years. Older age, obesity and technical or higher education were statistically associated with the incidence of diabetes. Our results confirm that the incidence of diabetes in Peru is among the highest reported globally. The fast economic growth in the last 20 years, high overweight and obesity rates may have triggered this phenomenon.

  5. Modelling the incidence and mortality of psychotic disorders: data from the second Australian national survey of psychosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saha, Sukanta; Whiteford, Harvey; McGrath, John

    2014-04-01

    The aim of this study was to model estimates related to (a) the incidence of psychotic disorders and (b) the mortality associated with these disorders based on a large, population-based prevalence study. Data were drawn from the second national survey of adults with psychotic disorders conducted in seven Australian catchment areas during March to December 2010. To generate incidence rate estimates, we identified recent onset cases recruited as part of the prevalence study and then imputed population-based incidence rates using a set of conservative assumptions. Similarly, for mortality rates, we identified individuals who had died after being identified as 'screen-positive' for psychosis, but prior to full clinical assessment. Using a set of conservative assumptions, we then used these estimates to infer population-based mortality rates. Based on our models, we estimated that the incidence rate for psychotic disorders was 28 cases per 100,000 population. The rate estimates were significantly higher in males than females, with an overall male:female ratio of 1.57:1. Incidence rate estimates peaked in the youngest age group (18-24 years). The adjusted mortality rate estimated during the whole period of observation was 12.5 per 1000 persons, with a standardised mortality ratio of 5.5. Using treated prevalence data and observed deaths with appropriate algorithms, we were able to impute incidence and mortality rates for psychotic disorders consistent with the published literature. While the second national survey of psychotic disorders was not designed to identify mortality, our estimates provide a stark reminder of the increased mortality associated with these disorders.

  6. Proposing a Compartmental Model for Leprosy and Parameterizing Using Regional Incidence in Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Rebecca Lee

    2016-08-01

    Hansen's disease (HD), or leprosy, is still considered a public health risk in much of Brazil. Understanding the dynamics of the infection at a regional level can aid in identification of targets to improve control. A compartmental continuous-time model for leprosy dynamics was designed based on understanding of the biology of the infection. The transmission coefficients for the model and the rate of detection were fit for each region using Approximate Bayesian Computation applied to paucibacillary and multibacillary incidence data over the period of 2000 to 2010, and model fit was validated on incidence data from 2011 to 2012. Regional variation was noted in detection rate, with cases in the Midwest estimated to be infectious for 10 years prior to detection compared to 5 years for most other regions. Posterior predictions for the model estimated that elimination of leprosy as a public health risk would require, on average, 44-45 years in the three regions with the highest prevalence. The model is easily adaptable to other settings, and can be studied to determine the efficacy of improved case finding on leprosy control.

  7. Incidence Rates of and Mortality after Hip Fracture among German Nursing Home Residents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hannes Jacobs

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Little is known about hip fracture rates and post-fracture mortality among nursing home residents. This retrospective cohort study examined incidence rates (IR of and mortality after hip fracture in this population focusing on sex differences. A cohort of >127,000 residents ≥65 years, newly admitted to German nursing homes between 2010 and 2014 were used to calculate age-, sex-, care-need- and time after admission-specific IR. To determine mortality, the Kaplan-Meier-method was applied. Using Cox regression, we studied mortality and estimated time-dependent hazard ratios (HRs. For this purpose, to each person with a hip fracture, one resident without a hip fracture was matched by sex, age and care-need using risk-set sampling. 75% were women (mean age: 84.0 years. During 168,588 person-years (PY, 8537 residents with at least one hip fracture were observed. The IR for women and men were 52.9 and 42.5/1000 PY. For both sexes, IR increased with rising age and decreased with increasing care-level. IR were highest in the first months after admission and subsequently declined afterwards. The impact of hip fractures on mortality was time-dependent. Mortality of residents with hip fracture was highest in the first two months after fracture compared to those without (HR: 2.82; 95% CI 2.57–3.11 and after six months, no differences were found (HR: 1.10; 95% CI 0.98–1.22 Further research should always include analyses stratified by sex, age and time period after admission.

  8. Incidence rates of occupational diseases in the Dutch construction sector, 2010-2014

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Molen, Henk F.; de Vries, Sanne C.; Stocks, S. Jill; Warning, Jan; Frings-Dresen, Monique H. W.

    2016-01-01

    To estimate incidence and trends in incidence of occupational diseases (ODs) in the Dutch construction sector. In a dynamic prospective cohort over a 5-year period (2010-2014), ODs assessed by occupational physicians (OPs) participating in a voluntary construction workers health surveillance (WHS)

  9. Threshold Dynamics in Stochastic SIRS Epidemic Models with Nonlinear Incidence and Vaccination

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lei Wang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, the dynamical behaviors for a stochastic SIRS epidemic model with nonlinear incidence and vaccination are investigated. In the models, the disease transmission coefficient and the removal rates are all affected by noise. Some new basic properties of the models are found. Applying these properties, we establish a series of new threshold conditions on the stochastically exponential extinction, stochastic persistence, and permanence in the mean of the disease with probability one for the models. Furthermore, we obtain a sufficient condition on the existence of unique stationary distribution for the model. Finally, a series of numerical examples are introduced to illustrate our main theoretical results and some conjectures are further proposed.

  10. Model Uncertainty and Exchange Rate Forecasting

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kouwenberg, R.; Markiewicz, A.; Verhoeks, R.; Zwinkels, R.C.J.

    2017-01-01

    Exchange rate models with uncertain and incomplete information predict that investors focus on a small set of fundamentals that changes frequently over time. We design a model selection rule that captures the current set of fundamentals that best predicts the exchange rate. Out-of-sample tests show

  11. Does Peak Urine Flow Rate Predict the Development of Incident Lower Urinary Tract Symptoms in Men with Mild to No Current Symptoms? Results from REDUCE.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simon, Ross M; Howard, Lauren E; Moreira, Daniel M; Roehrborn, Claus; Vidal, Adriana; Castro-Santamaria, Ramiro; Freedland, Stephen J

    2017-09-01

    We determined whether decreased peak urine flow is associated with future incident lower urinary tract symptoms in men with mild to no lower urinary tract symptoms. Our population consisted of 3,140 men from the REDUCE (Reduction by Dutasteride of Prostate Cancer Events) trial with mild to no lower urinary tract symptoms, defined as I-PSS (International Prostate Symptom Score) less than 8. REDUCE was a randomized trial of dutasteride vs placebo for prostate cancer prevention in men with elevated prostate specific antigen and negative biopsy. I-PSS measures were obtained every 6 months throughout the 4-year study. The association between peak urine flow rate and progression to incident lower urinary tract symptoms, defined as the first of medical treatment, surgery or sustained and clinically significant lower urinary tract symptoms, was tested by multivariable Cox models, adjusting for various baseline characteristics and treatment arm. On multivariable analysis as a continuous variable, decreased peak urine flow rate was significantly associated with an increased risk of incident lower urinary tract symptoms (p = 0.002). Results were similar in the dutasteride and placebo arms. On univariable analysis when peak flow was categorized as 15 or greater, 10 to 14.9 and less than 10 ml per second, flow rates of 10 to 14.9 and less than 10 ml per second were associated with a significantly increased risk of incident lower urinary tract symptoms (HR 1.39, p = 0.011 and 1.67, p urinary tract symptoms a decreased peak urine flow rate is independently associated with incident lower urinary tract symptoms. If confirmed, these men should be followed closer for incident lower urinary tract symptoms. Copyright © 2017 American Urological Association Education and Research, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. Incidence rates of in-hospital carpal tunnel syndrome in the general population and possible associations with marital status

    OpenAIRE

    Melani Carla; Fateh-Moghadam Pirous; dell'Omo Marco; de Giacomi Giovanna; Bena Antonella; Cooke Robin MT; Curti Stefania; Baldasseroni Alberto; Mattioli Stefano; Biocca Marco; Buiatti Eva; Campo Giuseppe; Zanardi Francesca; Violante Francesco S

    2008-01-01

    Abstract Background Carpal tunnel syndrome (CTS) is a socially relevant condition associated with biomechanical risk factors. We evaluated age-sex-specific incidence rates of in-hospital cases of CTS in central/northern Italy and explored relations with marital status. Methods Seven regions were considered (overall population, 14.9 million) over 3–6-year periods between 1997 and 2002 (when out-of-hospital CTS surgery was extremely rare). Incidence rates of in-hospital cases of CTS were estima...

  13. Increased incidence rate of trauma- and stressor-related disorders in Denmark following the Breivik attacks in Norway

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Bertel Teilfeldt; Dinesen, Peter T; Østergaard, Søren D

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND: On 22 July 2011, Anders Breivik killed 77 adults and children in Norway. Having recently documented increases in the incidence of trauma- and stressor-related disorders in Denmark after the 9/11 attacks, we hypothesized that the Breivik attacks-due to their geographic proximity......-would be followed by even larger increases in Denmark. METHODS: Using population-based data from the Danish Psychiatric Central Research Register (1995-2012), we conducted an intervention analysis of the change in the incidence of trauma- and stressor-related disorders after the Breivik attacks. RESULTS......: The incidence rate increased by 16% over the following 1½ years after the Breivik attacks, corresponding to 2736 additional cases. In comparison, 9/11 was followed by a 4% increase. We also present evidence of a subsequent surge in incidence stimulated by media attention. CONCLUSION: This study bolsters...

  14. Increased Incidence Rate of Trauma- and Stressor-related Disorders in Denmark After the Breivik Attacks in Norway.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, Bertel T; Dinesen, Peter T; Østergaard, Søren D

    2017-11-01

    On 22 July 2011, Anders Breivik killed 77 adults and children in Norway. Having recently documented increases in the incidence of trauma- and stressor-related disorders in Denmark after the 9/11 attacks, we hypothesized that the Breivik attacks-due to their geographic proximity-would be followed by even larger increases in Denmark. Using population-based data from the Danish Psychiatric Central Research Register (1995-2012), we conducted an intervention analysis of the change in the incidence of trauma- and stressor-related disorders after the Breivik attacks. The incidence rate increased by 16% over the following 1½ years after the Breivik attacks, corresponding to 2736 additional cases. In comparison, 9/11 was followed by a 4% increase. We also present evidence of a subsequent surge in incidence stimulated by media attention. This study bolsters previous findings on extra-national consequences of terrorism and indicates that geographic proximity and media coverage may exacerbate effects.

  15. Risk Prediction Models for Incident Heart Failure: A Systematic Review of Methodology and Model Performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sahle, Berhe W; Owen, Alice J; Chin, Ken Lee; Reid, Christopher M

    2017-09-01

    Numerous models predicting the risk of incident heart failure (HF) have been developed; however, evidence of their methodological rigor and reporting remains unclear. This study critically appraises the methods underpinning incident HF risk prediction models. EMBASE and PubMed were searched for articles published between 1990 and June 2016 that reported at least 1 multivariable model for prediction of HF. Model development information, including study design, variable coding, missing data, and predictor selection, was extracted. Nineteen studies reporting 40 risk prediction models were included. Existing models have acceptable discriminative ability (C-statistics > 0.70), although only 6 models were externally validated. Candidate variable selection was based on statistical significance from a univariate screening in 11 models, whereas it was unclear in 12 models. Continuous predictors were retained in 16 models, whereas it was unclear how continuous variables were handled in 16 models. Missing values were excluded in 19 of 23 models that reported missing data, and the number of events per variable was models. Only 2 models presented recommended regression equations. There was significant heterogeneity in discriminative ability of models with respect to age (P prediction models that had sufficient discriminative ability, although few are externally validated. Methods not recommended for the conduct and reporting of risk prediction modeling were frequently used, and resulting algorithms should be applied with caution. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Survey on th incidence of homeless pulmonary tuberculosis infection rate through chest x-ray examination

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Mi Young; Shin, Sung Rae [Dept. of Nursing, Sahmyook University, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Ryu, Young Hwan [Dept. of Radiology, Seoul Medical Center, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Lim, Hwan Yeal [Dept. of Medical Business Administration, U1 University, Yeongdong (Korea, Republic of)

    2017-02-15

    This study, Seoul City shelter, you are trying to seek medical cooperation and cure rate increase proposal Yu fndings’s current situation and tuberculosis of homeless tuberculosis. Inspector, and has a total 591 people is targeted to implement an interview after acquiring utilization agreement in studies conducted chest X-ray photography. Of the interview questions, three or more protons, it is determined that the TB symptomatic conducted sputum examination, chest X-ray examination confrms the physician radiology, when sputum examination primarily chromatic fndings the double implemented and conducted by requesting the ship inspection also said inspection sputum acid-fast bacteria if it is true one, respectively. confrmed case result of checking whether there is a difference due to risk factors (Jb) at the chi square black, it was found that there is no statistically significant difference at 95% confidence level. (χ{sup 2}=0.276, p>0.05), suspected case (Ac, Ae) results of examining whether there is a difference due to risk factors in chi square black, that there is a statistically significant difference at 99% confidence level is I found (χ{sup 2}=9.414, p<0.01). The nature of the homeless tuberculosis screening and directed to the distance homeless specifc location are likely to evaluate the actual incidence low and aggressive or management needs, the rationale is allowed insufficient reality is. Through this research, future, for tuberculosis high risk tuberculosis patient, such as homeless to expand the tuberculosis screening of infectious tuberculosis patients in private medical institutions, and one-stop service that chest X-ray examination and sputum examination is carried out at the same time introduced immediately to prevent the inspection and examination, cure, and should establish a foundation that can be up to post administration.

  17. Survey on th incidence of homeless pulmonary tuberculosis infection rate through chest x-ray examination

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Mi Young; Shin, Sung Rae; Ryu, Young Hwan; Lim, Hwan Yeal

    2017-01-01

    This study, Seoul City shelter, you are trying to seek medical cooperation and cure rate increase proposal Yu fndings’s current situation and tuberculosis of homeless tuberculosis. Inspector, and has a total 591 people is targeted to implement an interview after acquiring utilization agreement in studies conducted chest X-ray photography. Of the interview questions, three or more protons, it is determined that the TB symptomatic conducted sputum examination, chest X-ray examination confrms the physician radiology, when sputum examination primarily chromatic fndings the double implemented and conducted by requesting the ship inspection also said inspection sputum acid-fast bacteria if it is true one, respectively. confrmed case result of checking whether there is a difference due to risk factors (Jb) at the chi square black, it was found that there is no statistically significant difference at 95% confidence level. (χ 2 =0.276, p>0.05), suspected case (Ac, Ae) results of examining whether there is a difference due to risk factors in chi square black, that there is a statistically significant difference at 99% confidence level is I found (χ 2 =9.414, p<0.01). The nature of the homeless tuberculosis screening and directed to the distance homeless specifc location are likely to evaluate the actual incidence low and aggressive or management needs, the rationale is allowed insufficient reality is. Through this research, future, for tuberculosis high risk tuberculosis patient, such as homeless to expand the tuberculosis screening of infectious tuberculosis patients in private medical institutions, and one-stop service that chest X-ray examination and sputum examination is carried out at the same time introduced immediately to prevent the inspection and examination, cure, and should establish a foundation that can be up to post administration

  18. Multi-step polynomial regression method to model and forecast malaria incidence.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chandrajit Chatterjee

    Full Text Available Malaria is one of the most severe problems faced by the world even today. Understanding the causative factors such as age, sex, social factors, environmental variability etc. as well as underlying transmission dynamics of the disease is important for epidemiological research on malaria and its eradication. Thus, development of suitable modeling approach and methodology, based on the available data on the incidence of the disease and other related factors is of utmost importance. In this study, we developed a simple non-linear regression methodology in modeling and forecasting malaria incidence in Chennai city, India, and predicted future disease incidence with high confidence level. We considered three types of data to develop the regression methodology: a longer time series data of Slide Positivity Rates (SPR of malaria; a smaller time series data (deaths due to Plasmodium vivax of one year; and spatial data (zonal distribution of P. vivax deaths for the city along with the climatic factors, population and previous incidence of the disease. We performed variable selection by simple correlation study, identification of the initial relationship between variables through non-linear curve fitting and used multi-step methods for induction of variables in the non-linear regression analysis along with applied Gauss-Markov models, and ANOVA for testing the prediction, validity and constructing the confidence intervals. The results execute the applicability of our method for different types of data, the autoregressive nature of forecasting, and show high prediction power for both SPR and P. vivax deaths, where the one-lag SPR values plays an influential role and proves useful for better prediction. Different climatic factors are identified as playing crucial role on shaping the disease curve. Further, disease incidence at zonal level and the effect of causative factors on different zonal clusters indicate the pattern of malaria prevalence in the city

  19. Modeling inflation rates and exchange rates in Ghana: application of multivariate GARCH models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nortey, Ezekiel Nn; Ngoh, Delali D; Doku-Amponsah, Kwabena; Ofori-Boateng, Kenneth

    2015-01-01

    This paper was aimed at investigating the volatility and conditional relationship among inflation rates, exchange rates and interest rates as well as to construct a model using multivariate GARCH DCC and BEKK models using Ghana data from January 1990 to December 2013. The study revealed that the cumulative depreciation of the cedi to the US dollar from 1990 to 2013 is 7,010.2% and the yearly weighted depreciation of the cedi to the US dollar for the period is 20.4%. There was evidence that, the fact that inflation rate was stable, does not mean that exchange rates and interest rates are expected to be stable. Rather, when the cedi performs well on the forex, inflation rates and interest rates react positively and become stable in the long run. The BEKK model is robust to modelling and forecasting volatility of inflation rates, exchange rates and interest rates. The DCC model is robust to model the conditional and unconditional correlation among inflation rates, exchange rates and interest rates. The BEKK model, which forecasted high exchange rate volatility for the year 2014, is very robust for modelling the exchange rates in Ghana. The mean equation of the DCC model is also robust to forecast inflation rates in Ghana.

  20. Modeling time to recovery and initiating event frequency for loss of off-site power incidents at nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Iman, R.L.; Hora, S.C.

    1988-01-01

    Industry data representing the time to recovery of loss of off-site power at nuclear power plants for 63 incidents caused by plant-centered losses, grid losses, or severe weather losses are fit with exponential, lognormal, gamma and Weibull probability models. A Bayesian analysis is used to compare the adequacy of each of these models and to provide uncertainty bounds on each of the fitted models. A composite model that combines the probability models fitted to each of the three sources of data is presented as a method for predicting the time to recovery of loss of off-site power. The composite model is very general and can be made site specific by making adjustments on the models used, such as might occur due to the type of switchyard configuration or type of grid, and by adjusting the weights on the individual models, such as might occur with weather conditions existing at a particular plant. Adjustments in the composite model are shown for different models used for switchyard configuration and for different weights due to weather. Bayesian approaches are also presented for modeling the frequency of initiating events leading to loss of off-site power. One Bayesian model assumes that all plants share a common incidence rate for loss of off-site power, while the other Bayesian approach models the incidence rate for each plant relative to the incidence rates of all other plants. Combining the Bayesian models for the frequency of the initiating events with the composite Bayesian model for recovery provides the necessary vehicle for a complete model that incorporates uncertainty into a probabilistic risk assessment

  1. Incidence Rate of Community-Acquired Sepsis Among Hospitalized Acute Medical Patients-A Population-Based Survey

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Henriksen, Daniel Pilsgaard; Laursen, Christian B; Jensen, Thøger Gorm

    2015-01-01

    to the hospital. DESIGN:: Population-based survey. SETTING:: Medical emergency department from September 1, 2010, to August 31, 2011. PATIENTS:: All patients were manually reviewed using a structured protocol in order to identify the presence of infection. Vital signs and laboratory values were collected...... to define the presence of systemic inflammatory response syndrome and organ dysfunction. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS:: Incidence rate of sepsis of any severity. Among 8,358 admissions to the medical emergency department, 1,713 patients presented with an incident admission of sepsis of any severity, median...... on symptoms and clinical findings at arrival, incidence rates of patients admitted to a medical emergency department with sepsis and severe sepsis are more frequent than previously reported based on discharge diagnoses....

  2. Model variations in predicting incidence of Plasmodium falciparum malaria using 1998-2007 morbidity and meteorological data from south Ethiopia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loha, Eskindir; Lindtjørn, Bernt

    2010-06-16

    Malaria transmission is complex and is believed to be associated with local climate changes. However, simple attempts to extrapolate malaria incidence rates from averaged regional meteorological conditions have proven unsuccessful. Therefore, the objective of this study was to determine if variations in specific meteorological factors are able to consistently predict P. falciparum malaria incidence at different locations in south Ethiopia. Retrospective data from 42 locations were collected including P. falciparum malaria incidence for the period of 1998-2007 and meteorological variables such as monthly rainfall (all locations), temperature (17 locations), and relative humidity (three locations). Thirty-five data sets qualified for the analysis. Ljung-Box Q statistics was used for model diagnosis, and R squared or stationary R squared was taken as goodness of fit measure. Time series modelling was carried out using Transfer Function (TF) models and univariate auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) when there was no significant predictor meteorological variable. Of 35 models, five were discarded because of the significant value of Ljung-Box Q statistics. Past P. falciparum malaria incidence alone (17 locations) or when coupled with meteorological variables (four locations) was able to predict P. falciparum malaria incidence within statistical significance. All seasonal AIRMA orders were from locations at altitudes above 1742 m. Monthly rainfall, minimum and maximum temperature was able to predict incidence at four, five and two locations, respectively. In contrast, relative humidity was not able to predict P. falciparum malaria incidence. The R squared values for the models ranged from 16% to 97%, with the exception of one model which had a negative value. Models with seasonal ARIMA orders were found to perform better. However, the models for predicting P. falciparum malaria incidence varied from location to location, and among lagged effects, data

  3. Model variations in predicting incidence of Plasmodium falciparum malaria using 1998-2007 morbidity and meteorological data from south Ethiopia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Loha Eskindir

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Malaria transmission is complex and is believed to be associated with local climate changes. However, simple attempts to extrapolate malaria incidence rates from averaged regional meteorological conditions have proven unsuccessful. Therefore, the objective of this study was to determine if variations in specific meteorological factors are able to consistently predict P. falciparum malaria incidence at different locations in south Ethiopia. Methods Retrospective data from 42 locations were collected including P. falciparum malaria incidence for the period of 1998-2007 and meteorological variables such as monthly rainfall (all locations, temperature (17 locations, and relative humidity (three locations. Thirty-five data sets qualified for the analysis. Ljung-Box Q statistics was used for model diagnosis, and R squared or stationary R squared was taken as goodness of fit measure. Time series modelling was carried out using Transfer Function (TF models and univariate auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA when there was no significant predictor meteorological variable. Results Of 35 models, five were discarded because of the significant value of Ljung-Box Q statistics. Past P. falciparum malaria incidence alone (17 locations or when coupled with meteorological variables (four locations was able to predict P. falciparum malaria incidence within statistical significance. All seasonal AIRMA orders were from locations at altitudes above 1742 m. Monthly rainfall, minimum and maximum temperature was able to predict incidence at four, five and two locations, respectively. In contrast, relative humidity was not able to predict P. falciparum malaria incidence. The R squared values for the models ranged from 16% to 97%, with the exception of one model which had a negative value. Models with seasonal ARIMA orders were found to perform better. However, the models for predicting P. falciparum malaria incidence varied from location

  4. Exploring neighborhood inequality in female breast cancer incidence in Tehran using Bayesian spatial models and a spatial scan statistic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erfan Ayubi

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVES The aim of this study was to explore the spatial pattern of female breast cancer (BC incidence at the neighborhood level in Tehran, Iran. METHODS The present study included all registered incident cases of female BC from March 2008 to March 2011. The raw standardized incidence ratio (SIR of BC for each neighborhood was estimated by comparing observed cases relative to expected cases. The estimated raw SIRs were smoothed by a Besag, York, and Mollie spatial model and the spatial empirical Bayesian method. The purely spatial scan statistic was used to identify spatial clusters. RESULTS There were 4,175 incident BC cases in the study area from 2008 to 2011, of which 3,080 were successfully geocoded to the neighborhood level. Higher than expected rates of BC were found in neighborhoods located in northern and central Tehran, whereas lower rates appeared in southern areas. The most likely cluster of higher than expected BC incidence involved neighborhoods in districts 3 and 6, with an observed-to-expected ratio of 3.92 (p<0.001, whereas the most likely cluster of lower than expected rates involved neighborhoods in districts 17, 18, and 19, with an observed-to-expected ratio of 0.05 (p<0.001. CONCLUSIONS Neighborhood-level inequality in the incidence of BC exists in Tehran. These findings can serve as a basis for resource allocation and preventive strategies in at-risk areas.

  5. Incidence rates of in-hospital carpal tunnel syndrome in the general population and possible associations with marital status

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Melani Carla

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Carpal tunnel syndrome (CTS is a socially relevant condition associated with biomechanical risk factors. We evaluated age-sex-specific incidence rates of in-hospital cases of CTS in central/northern Italy and explored relations with marital status. Methods Seven regions were considered (overall population, 14.9 million over 3–6-year periods between 1997 and 2002 (when out-of-hospital CTS surgery was extremely rare. Incidence rates of in-hospital cases of CTS were estimated based on 1 codified demographic, diagnostic and intervention data in obligatory discharge records from all Italian public/private hospitals, archived (according to residence on regional databases; 2 demographic general population data for each region. We compared (using the χscore test age-sex-specific rates between married, unmarried, divorced and widowed subsets of the general population. We calculated standardized incidence ratios (SIRs for married/unmarried men and women. Results Age-standardized incidence rates (per 100,000 person-years of in-hospital cases of CTS were 166 in women and 44 in men (106 overall. Married subjects of both sexes showed higher age-specific rates with respect to unmarried men/women. SIRs were calculated comparing married vs unmarried rates of both sexes: 1.59 (95% confidence interval [95% CI], 1.57–1.60 in women, and 1.42 (95% CI, 1.40–1.45 in men. As compared with married women/men, widows/widowers both showed 2–3-fold higher incidence peaks during the fourth decade of life (beyond 50 years of age, widowed subjects showed similar trends to unmarried counterparts. Conclusion This large population-based study illustrates distinct age-related trends in men and women, and also raises the question whether marital status could be associated with CTS in the general population.

  6. Incidence rates of in-hospital carpal tunnel syndrome in the general population and possible associations with marital status.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mattioli, Stefano; Baldasseroni, Alberto; Curti, Stefania; Cooke, Robin M T; Bena, Antonella; de Giacomi, Giovanna; dell'Omo, Marco; Fateh-Moghadam, Pirous; Melani, Carla; Biocca, Marco; Buiatti, Eva; Campo, Giuseppe; Zanardi, Francesca; Violante, Francesco S

    2008-10-28

    Carpal tunnel syndrome (CTS) is a socially relevant condition associated with biomechanical risk factors. We evaluated age-sex-specific incidence rates of in-hospital cases of CTS in central/northern Italy and explored relations with marital status. Seven regions were considered (overall population, 14.9 million) over 3-6-year periods between 1997 and 2002 (when out-of-hospital CTS surgery was extremely rare). Incidence rates of in-hospital cases of CTS were estimated based on 1) codified demographic, diagnostic and intervention data in obligatory discharge records from all Italian public/private hospitals, archived (according to residence) on regional databases; 2) demographic general population data for each region. We compared (using the chiscore test) age-sex-specific rates between married, unmarried, divorced and widowed subsets of the general population. We calculated standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) for married/unmarried men and women. Age-standardized incidence rates (per 100,000 person-years) of in-hospital cases of CTS were 166 in women and 44 in men (106 overall). Married subjects of both sexes showed higher age-specific rates with respect to unmarried men/women. SIRs were calculated comparing married vs unmarried rates of both sexes: 1.59 (95% confidence interval [95% CI], 1.57-1.60) in women, and 1.42 (95% CI, 1.40-1.45) in men. As compared with married women/men, widows/widowers both showed 2-3-fold higher incidence peaks during the fourth decade of life (beyond 50 years of age, widowed subjects showed similar trends to unmarried counterparts). This large population-based study illustrates distinct age-related trends in men and women, and also raises the question whether marital status could be associated with CTS in the general population.

  7. Increasing Incidence and Recurrence Rate of Venous Thromboembolism in Paediatric Oncology Patients in One Single Centre Over 25 Years

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Klaassen, Irene L. M.; van Els, Anne L.; van de Wetering, Marianne D.; van Ommen, C. Heleen

    2017-01-01

    Venous thromboembolism (VTE) is a serious complication in paediatric oncology patients. To identify the incidence, risk factors and recurrence rate of VTE in paediatric oncology patients, an observational, retrospective cohort study of all consecutive children (≤18 years) with malignancies, treated

  8. Influence of phantom and tube voltage in fluoroscopy on image intensifier (I.I.) incident dose rate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seguchi, Shigenobu; Ishikawa, Yoshinobu; Kuwahara, Kazuyoshi; Morita, Miki; Mizuno, Shouta; Nakamura, Akio

    1999-01-01

    We examined the influence of phantoms and tube voltage in fluoroscopy on the image intensifier (I.I.) conversion factor. We used 20-cm-thick acrylic resin, 20 mm aluminum, and 1.5 mm copper, which are generally used as phantoms in the measurement of I.I. incident dose rate. We measured I.I. incident dose rate and conversion factor under conditions in which the range of tube voltage was from 60 kV to 120 kV. The result showed that the conversion factor is influenced by the type of phantom, with copper showing the highest value, aluminum second, and acrylic the smallest under the same condition of aluminum at half value layer. It was determined that conversion factor depends on tube voltage and has peaks from 80-100 kV. The location and height of the peak are influenced by the type of phantom. Therefore, I.I. incident dose rate is influenced by both the type of phantom and tube voltage under automatic brightness control fluoroscopy. Unification of phantoms and tube voltage is necessary for long-term evaluation of I.I. incident dose rate. (author)

  9. Incidence rates and risk factors of bipolar disorder in the general population: a population-based cohort study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kroon, Jojanneke S.; Wohlfarth, Tamar D.; Dieleman, Jeanne; Sutterland, Arjen L.; Storosum, Jitschak G.; Denys, Damiaan; de Haan, Lieuwe; Sturkenboom, Mirjam C. J. M.

    2013-01-01

    To estimate the incidence rates (IRs) of bipolar I and bipolar II disorders in the general population according to sociodemographic population characteristics. A cohort study (during the years 1996-2007) was conducted in a general practitioners research database with a longitudinal electronic record

  10. Traffic Incident Clearance Time and Arrival Time Prediction Based on Hazard Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yang beibei Ji

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Accurate prediction of incident duration is not only important information of Traffic Incident Management System, but also an effective input for travel time prediction. In this paper, the hazard based prediction models are developed for both incident clearance time and arrival time. The data are obtained from the Queensland Department of Transport and Main Roads’ STREAMS Incident Management System (SIMS for one year ending in November 2010. The best fitting distributions are drawn for both clearance and arrival time for 3 types of incident: crash, stationary vehicle, and hazard. The results show that Gamma, Log-logistic, and Weibull are the best fit for crash, stationary vehicle, and hazard incident, respectively. The obvious impact factors are given for crash clearance time and arrival time. The quantitative influences for crash and hazard incident are presented for both clearance and arrival. The model accuracy is analyzed at the end.

  11. The incidence rate of corpus uteri cancer among females in Saudi Arabia: an observational descriptive epidemiological analysis of data from Saudi Cancer Registry 2001–2008

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alghamdi IG

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Ibrahim G Alghamdi,1 Issam I Hussain,1 Mohamed S Alghamdi,2 Mohamed A El-Sheemy1,3 1University of Lincoln, Brayford Pool, Lincoln, UK; 2Ministry of Health, General Directorate of Health Affairs, Al-Baha, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia; 3Research and Development, Lincoln Hospital, Lincolnshire Hospitals NHS Trust, Lincoln, UK Background: The present study reviews the epidemiological data on corpus uteri cancer among Saudi women, including its frequency, crude incidence rate, and age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR, adjusted by region and year of diagnosis. Methods: A retrospective, descriptive epidemiological analysis was conducted of all the corpus uteri cancer cases recorded in the Saudi Cancer Registry between January 2001 and December 2008. The statistical analyses were performed using descriptive statistics, analysis of variance, Poisson regression, and a simple linear model. Results: A total of 1,060 corpus uteri cancer cases were included. Women aged 60–74 years of age were most affected by the disease. The region of Riyadh in Saudi Arabia had the highest overall ASIR, at 4.4 cases per 100,000 female patients, followed by the eastern region, at 4.2, and Makkah, at 3.7. Jazan, Najran, and Qassim had the lowest average ASIRs, ranging from 0.8 to 1.4. A Poisson regression model using Jazan as the reference revealed that the corpus uteri cancer incidence rate ratio was significantly higher for the regions of Makkah, at 16.5 times (95% confidence interval [CI]: 8.0–23.0, followed by Riyadh, at 16.0 times (95% CI: 9.0–22.0, and the eastern region, at 9.9 times (95% CI: 5.6–17.6. The northern region experienced the highest changes in ASIRs of corpus uteri cancer among female Saudi patients between 2001 and 2008. Conclusion: There was a slight increase in the crude incidence rates and ASIRs for corpus uteri cancer in Saudi Arabia between 2001 and 2008. Older Saudi women were most affected by the disease. Riyadh, the eastern region, and Makkah

  12. [Seasonality of rotavirus infection in Venezuela: relationship between monthly rotavirus incidence and rainfall rates].

    Science.gov (United States)

    González Chávez, Rosabel

    2015-09-01

    In general, it has been reported that rotavirus infection was detected year round in tropical countries. However, studies in Venezuela and Brazil suggest a seasonal behavior of the infection. On the other hand, some studies link infection with climatic variables such as rainfall. This study analyzes the pattern of behavior of the rotavirus infection in Carabobo-Venezuela (2001-2005), associates the seasonality of the infection with rainfall, and according to the seasonal pattern, estimates the age of greatest risk for infection. The analysis of the rotavirus temporal series and accumulated precipitation was performed with the software SPSS. The infection showed two periods: high incidence (November-April) and low incidence (May-October). Accumulated precipitation presents an opposite behavior. The highest frequency of events (73.8% 573/779) for those born in the period with a low incidence of the virus was recorded at an earlier age (mean age 6.5 +/- 2.0 months) when compared with those born in the station of high incidence (63.5% 568/870, mean age 11.7 +/- 2.2 months). Seasonality of the infection and the inverse relationship between virus incidence and rainfall was demonstrated. In addition, it was found that the period of birth determines the age and risk of infection. This information generated during the preaccine period will be helpful to measure the impact of the vaccine against the rotavirus.

  13. Multistate cohort models with proportional transfer rates

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schoen, Robert; Canudas-Romo, Vladimir

    2006-01-01

    of transfer rates. The two living state case and hierarchical multistate models with any number of living states are analyzed in detail. Applying our approach to 1997 U.S. fertility data, we find that observed rates of parity progression are roughly proportional over age. Our proportional transfer rate...... approach provides trajectories by parity state and facilitates analyses of the implications of changes in parity rate levels and patterns. More women complete childbearing at parity 2 than at any other parity, and parity 2 would be the modal parity in models with total fertility rates (TFRs) of 1.40 to 2......We present a new, broadly applicable approach to summarizing the behavior of a cohort as it moves through a variety of statuses (or states). The approach is based on the assumption that all rates of transfer maintain a constant ratio to one another over age. We present closed-form expressions...

  14. Modeling Real Exchange Rate Persistence in Chile

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leonardo Salazar

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available The long and persistent swings in the real exchange rate have for a long time puzzled economists. Recent models built on imperfect knowledge economics seem to provide a theoretical explanation for this persistence. Empirical results, based on a cointegrated vector autoregressive (CVAR model, provide evidence of error-increasing behavior in prices and interest rates, which is consistent with the persistence observed in the data. The movements in the real exchange rate are compensated by movements in the interest rate spread, which restores the equilibrium in the product market when the real exchange rate moves away from its long-run benchmark value. Fluctuations in the copper price also explain the deviations of the real exchange rate from its long-run equilibrium value.

  15. Incidence rates of enterovirus 71 infections in young children during a nationwide epidemic in Taiwan, 2008-09.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Min-Shi Lee

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: Enterovirus 71 (EV71 is causing life-threatening outbreaks in tropical Asia. In Taiwan and other tropical Asian countries, although nationwide EV71 epidemics occur cyclically, age-specific incidence rates of EV71 infections that are critical to estimate disease burden and design vaccine trials are not clear. A nationwide EV71 epidemic occurred in 2008-09 in Taiwan, which provided a unique opportunity to estimate age-specific incidence rates of EV71 infections. STUDY DESIGN: We prospectively recruited 749 healthy neonates and conducted follow-ups from June 2006 to December 2009. Sera were obtained from participants at 0, 6, 12, 24, and 36 months of age for measuring EV71 neutralizing antibody titers. If the participants developed suspected enterovirus illnesses, throat swabs were collected for virus isolation. RESULTS: We detected 28 EV71 infections including 20 symptomatic and 8 asymptomatic infections. Age-specific incidence rates of EV71 infection increased from 1.71 per 100 person-years at 0-6 months of age to 4.09, 5.74, and 4.97 per 100 person-years at 7-12, 13-24, and 25-36 months of age, respectively. Cumulative incidence rate was 15.15 per 100 persons by 36 months of age, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Risk of EV71 infections in Taiwan increased after 6 months of age during EV71 epidemics. The cumulative incidence rate was 15% by 36 months of age, and 29% of EV71 infections were asymptomatic in young children.

  16. Tuberculosis incidence rates during 8 years of follow-up of an antiretroviral treatment cohort in South Africa: comparison with rates in the community.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ankur Gupta

    Full Text Available Although antiretroviral therapy (ART is known to be associated with time-dependent reductions in tuberculosis (TB incidence, the long-term impact of ART on incidence remains imprecisely defined due to limited duration of follow-up and incomplete CD4 cell count recovery in existing studies. We determined TB incidence in a South African ART cohort with up to 8 years of follow-up and stratified rates according to CD4 cell count recovery. We compared these rates with those of HIV-uninfected individuals living in the same community.Prospectively collected clinical data on patients receiving ART in a community-based cohort in Cape Town were analysed. 1544 patients with a median follow-up of 5.0 years (IQR 2.4-5.8 were included in the analysis. 484 episodes of incident TB (73.6% culture-confirmed were diagnosed in 424 patients during 6506 person-years (PYs of follow-up. The TB incidence rate during the first year of ART was 12.4 (95% CI 10.8-14.4 cases/100PYs and decreased to 4.92 (95% CI 3.64-8.62 cases/100PYs between 5 and 8 years of ART. During person-time accrued within CD4 cell strata 0-100, 101-200, 201-300, 301-400, 401-500, 501-700 and ≥700 cells/µL, TB incidence rates (95% CI were 25.5 (21.6-30.3, 11.2 (9.4-13.5, 7.9 (6.4-9.7, 5.0 (3.9-6.6, 5.1 (3.8-6.8, 4.1 (3.1-5.4 and 2.7 (1.7-4.5 cases/100PYs, respectively. Overall, 75% (95% CI 70.9-78.8 of TB episodes were recurrent cases. Updated CD4 cell count and viral load measurements were independently associated with long-term TB risk. TB rates during person-time accrued in the highest CD4 cell count stratum (>700 cells/µL were 4.4-fold higher that the rate in HIV uninfected individuals living in the same community (2.7 versus 0.62 cases/100PYs; 95%CI 0.58-0.65.TB rates during long-term ART remained substantially greater than rates in the local HIV uninfected populations regardless of duration of ART or attainment of CD4 cell counts exceeding 700 cells/µL.

  17. [The estimated incidence and case fatality rate of ischemic and hemorrhagic cerebrovascular disease in 2002 in Catalonia].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marrugat, Jaume; Arboix, Adrià; García-Eroles, Lluís; Salas, Teresa; Vila, Joan; Castell, Conxa; Tresserras, Ricard; Elosua, Roberto

    2007-06-01

    The aim of this study was to obtain an estimate of the incidence of cerebrovascular disease (CVD) in the Spanish population in 2002. The study involved data on patients aged over 24 years for the year 2002 contained in both the death register and the Minimum Basic Data Set from 65 of the 84 Catalan general hospitals (i.e., 90.7% of all acute hospital beds in Catalonia). Total and age-adjusted mortality rates, cumulative incidence, and hospitalization rates, and the 28-day case fatality rate for CVD in the Catalan population were calculated after cases of traumatic and transient disease had been excluded. The unadjusted CVD mortality rate per 100,000 population aged over 24 years in Catalonia was 92 in men and 119 in women. The age-adjusted rates were 58 (95% confidence interval or CI, 56-61) and 43 (95% CI, 41-44), respectively. The cumulative incidence of CVD per 100,000 population was 218 (95% CI, 214-221) in men and 127 (95% CI, 125-128) in women. The unadjusted 28-day case fatality rate in the population was 36.2%: 30.3% in men and 42.0% in women. Some 62.5% of patients (57.2% of men and 66.4% of women) died from CVD outside hospital. These findings indicate that CVD mortality and incidence rates in Catalonia are among the lowest in developed countries. More than half of the deaths that took place within 28 days after the onset of symptoms occurred outside hospital.

  18. Trends in the oncological incidence and mortality rates in Buhovo, Dolni Bogrov, Gorni Bogrov - regions with radio ecological problems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yagova, A.; Chobanova, N.; Bajrakova, A.

    2001-01-01

    A retrospective study is carried out to analyze the incidence and mortality trends of some malignant neoplasms in regions at relatively high radioecological risk near former uranium sites (Buhovo, Dolni Bogrov, Gorni Bogrov). Information sources are official medical statistics data, original records and database of the Oncological Dispensary in Sofia. A package of statistical programs SPSS, version 7.5, is used for the statistical analysis. The analysis didn't confirm the increase of incidence /mortality rate trends of radiation-related diseases in these regions in comparison with the same indices for the country within that period. (author)

  19. A computational model incorporating neural stem cell dynamics reproduces glioma incidence across the lifespan in the human population.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roman Bauer

    Full Text Available Glioma is the most common form of primary brain tumor. Demographically, the risk of occurrence increases until old age. Here we present a novel computational model to reproduce the probability of glioma incidence across the lifespan. Previous mathematical models explaining glioma incidence are framed in a rather abstract way, and do not directly relate to empirical findings. To decrease this gap between theory and experimental observations, we incorporate recent data on cellular and molecular factors underlying gliomagenesis. Since evidence implicates the adult neural stem cell as the likely cell-of-origin of glioma, we have incorporated empirically-determined estimates of neural stem cell number, cell division rate, mutation rate and oncogenic potential into our model. We demonstrate that our model yields results which match actual demographic data in the human population. In particular, this model accounts for the observed peak incidence of glioma at approximately 80 years of age, without the need to assert differential susceptibility throughout the population. Overall, our model supports the hypothesis that glioma is caused by randomly-occurring oncogenic mutations within the neural stem cell population. Based on this model, we assess the influence of the (experimentally indicated decrease in the number of neural stem cells and increase of cell division rate during aging. Our model provides multiple testable predictions, and suggests that different temporal sequences of oncogenic mutations can lead to tumorigenesis. Finally, we conclude that four or five oncogenic mutations are sufficient for the formation of glioma.

  20. Relation between the geochemical environment and disease incidence rate. A case study the Island Krk in the Adriatic Sea, Croatia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kutle, A.; Obhodas, J.; Valkovic, V.

    2006-01-01

    It has been observed that among the seven municipalities of the Island of Krk the three in the central part of the island have increased disease incidence rates for the five groups of diseases: (a) neoplasm, (b) diseases of the blood and blood-forming organs and certain disorders involving the immune mechanism, (c) endocrine, nutritional and metabolic diseases, (d) mental and behavioral disorders and (e) diseases of the circulatory system. One of the etiological factors is assumed to be the influence of the geochemical environment. The average element concentration values of six trace elements (Mn, Fe, Ni, Cu, Zn and As) for the geochemical environment in the individual municipalities were determined by XRF analyses of soil, plant, potable water and hair samples. The data on disease incidence rates for the individual municipalities, from 1997 to 2001, have been obtained from the Public Health Institution in charge of monitoring population health on the island. Diseases' groups have been defined by the WHO methodology. The GPS-GIS methodology was used to obtain maps of trace elements in different matrices and disease incidence distributions. Data analyses were performed by multivariate statistical methods (principal component analysis and cluster analysis). It has been shown that the concentration levels of the elements could be related to disease incidence rates. (author)

  1. Estimating the incidence reporting rates of new influenza pandemics at an early stage using travel data from the source country.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chong, K C; Fong, H F; Zee, C Y

    2014-05-01

    During the surveillance of influenza pandemics, underreported data are a public health challenge that complicates the understanding of pandemic threats and can undermine mitigation efforts. We propose a method to estimate incidence reporting rates at early stages of new influenza pandemics using 2009 pandemic H1N1 as an example. Routine surveillance data and statistics of travellers arriving from Mexico were used. Our method incorporates changes in reporting rates such as linearly increasing trends due to the enhanced surveillance. From our results, the reporting rate was estimated at 0·46% during early stages of the pandemic in Mexico. We estimated cumulative incidence in the Mexican population to be 0·7% compared to 0·003% reported by officials in Mexico at the end of April. This method could be useful in estimation of actual cases during new influenza pandemics for policy makers to better determine appropriate control measures.

  2. Increased Incidence of Campylobacter spp. Infection and High Rates among Children, Israel

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lerner, Larisa; Valinsky, Lea; Moran-Gilad, Jacob; Nissan, Israel; Agmon, Vered; Peretz, Chava

    2013-01-01

    During 1999–2010, the annual incidence of Campylobacter spp. infection in Israel increased from 31.04 to 90.99 cases/100,000 population, a yearly increase of 10.24%. Children 26-fold higher than for the 30–<50 age group. PMID:24188185

  3. Incidence rate of thyroid cancer in Neuquén (2001-2012).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohen Sabban, Marcos Alejandro; Palmero, Cintia; Bertrand, Beatriz; Aiello, Ana; Ghiglioni, Amalia; Mac Donell, Maria Celina; Croci, Cecilia; Cabaeiro, Patricia; Juvenal, Guillermo Juan

    2014-11-01

    During the past decades, an increasing incidence of thyroid cancer (TC) has been reported worldwide. In Argentina there is no national cancer registry, and its incidence has therefore not been established. The aim of our study was to determine the incidence of TC in the province of Neuquén and to compare it to that reported in the literature. The medical records of 229 patients admitted over a period of 12 years (2001 to 2012) were used for data analysis. Tumor size, age, sex, and histological type were evaluated. The study period was divided into four three-year periods, and differences in each of these features were analyzed. We found an incidence of 4.72/100,000 inhabitants/year, and almost all patients had papillary TC. TC was five times more common in females as compared to males (7.78 and 1.55 respectively). Mean tumor size was 22.2 ± 1.1 mm. Tumor size was significantly greater in men (31.8 ± 3.7 mm) than in women (20.4 ± 1.0 mm). When grouped by three-year periods, a higher number of cases was found in the last one (47, 49, 49 and 84 respectively). As regards tumor distribution by size, there was a significant decrease in mean tumor size in the fourth period and an increase in the proportion of tumors <10mm. We report an increase in TC incidence in the Argentinean province of Neuquén which is similar to the overall increase reported in the international literature. Copyright © 2014 SEEN. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

  4. Resting heart rate and the incidence and progression of valvular calcium: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amoakwa, Kojo; Fashanu, Oluwaseun E; Tibuakuu, Martin; Zhao, Di; Guallar, Eliseo; Whelton, Seamus P; O'Neal, Wesley T; Post, Wendy S; Budoff, Matthew J; Michos, Erin D

    2018-06-01

    Left-sided valvular calcification is associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD) morbidity and mortality. Resting heart rate (RHR) may influence valvular calcium progression through shear stress. Whether RHR, an established CVD risk factor, is associated with valvular calcium progression is unknown. We assessed whether RHR predicts incidence and progression of mitral annular calcium (MAC) and aortic valve calcium (AVC) in a community-based cohort free of CVD at baseline. RHR was obtained from baseline electrocardiograms of 5498 MESA participants. MAC and AVC were quantified using Agatston scoring from cardiac computed tomography scans obtained at baseline and at a second examination during follow-up. We examined associations of RHR with incident MAC/AVC and annual change in MAC/AVC scores, after adjusting for demographics, CVD risk factors, physical activity, and atrioventricular nodal blocker use. At baseline, participants had mean age of 62 ± 10 years and mean RHR of 63 ± 10 bpm; 12.3% and 8.9% had prevalent AVC and MAC, respectively. Over a median of 2.3 years, 4.1% and 4.5% developed incident AVC and MAC, respectively. Each 10 bpm higher RHR was significantly associated with incident MAC [Risk Ratio 1.17 (95% CI 1.03-1.34)], but not incident AVC. However, RHR was associated with AVC progression [β = 1.62 (0.45-2.80) Agatston units/year for every 10 bpm increment], but not MAC progression. Higher RHR was associated with MAC incidence and AVC progression, independent of traditional CVD risk factors. Future studies are needed to determine whether modification of RHR through lifestyle or pharmacologic interventions can reduce valvular calcium incidence or progression. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  5. Investigation of effect of blood pressure and heart rate changes in different positions (lying and sitting on hypotension incidence rate after spinal anesthesia in patients undergoing caesarean section

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nahid Manouchehrian

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Due to the relatively high prevalence of hypotension (20% -40% after spinal anesthesia as well as the adverse effects of hypotension on mother and baby, it is better to prevent hypotension as much as possible. Therefore, this study is aimed to determine the relationship between postural blood pressure and heart rate changes and hypotension incidence rate after spinal anesthesia in cesarean section.63 women aging18 to 45years old with fullterm pregnancy, who were candidate for caesarean section with spinal anesthesia, entered the study. Afterwards, the diastolic, systolic, and mean arterial pressures as well as the heart rate (pulse in different positions (sitting, lying, and left lateral were measured. After spinal anesthesia, the patients' blood pressure was measured and recorded every minute until the10thmin, then every 3 minute until the15thmin, and then every 5 minute until the end of cesarean section. Data analysis was performed using SPSS (ver. 19 software, descriptive statistics, one-way ANOVA, and post hoc Bonferroni test. In this study, the hypotension incidence rate was 30% and the orthostatic variation rate of the systolic blood pressure in more than half of the people was between 4.39 to 13.49psi, which showed the highest variation compared to the diastolic pressure, mean arterial blood pressure (or: mean arterial pressure [MAP], and heart(pulse. Considering the correlation coefficient of 0.27, the systolic blood pressure in the lateral position has the highest relationship with the incidence of hypotension. The postural systolic blood pressure changes in patients prior to the spinal anesthesia can be a predictive factor for the post-spinal hypotension incidence.

  6. Breast cancer incidence following low-dose rate environmental exposure: Techa River Cohort, 1956–2004

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ostroumova, E; Preston, D L; Ron, E; Krestinina, L; Davis, F G; Kossenko, M; Akleyev, A

    2008-01-01

    In the 1950s, the Mayak nuclear weapons facility in Russia discharged liquid radioactive wastes into the Techa River causing exposure of riverside residents to protracted low-to-moderate doses of radiation. Almost 10 000 women received estimated doses to the stomach of up to 0.47 Gray (Gy) (mean dose=0.04 Gy) from external γ-exposure and 137Cs incorporation. We have been following this population for cancer incidence and mortality and as in the general Russian population, we found a significant temporal trend of breast cancer incidence. A significant linear radiation dose–response relationship was observed (P=0.01) with an estimated excess relative risk per Gray (ERR/Gy) of 5.00 (95% confidence interval (CI), 0.80, 12.76). We estimated that approximately 12% of the 109 observed cases could be attributed to radiation. PMID:19002173

  7. Affinity functions for modeling glass dissolution rates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bourcier, W.L. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab., CA (United States)

    1997-07-01

    Glass dissolution rates decrease dramatically as glass approach ''saturation'' with respect to the leachate solution. Most repository sites are chosen where water fluxes are minimal, and therefore the waste glass is most likely to dissolve under conditions close to ''saturation''. The key term in the rate expression used to predict glass dissolution rates close to ''saturation'' is the affinity term, which accounts for saturation effects on dissolution rates. Interpretations of recent experimental data on the dissolution behaviour of silicate glasses and silicate minerals indicate the following: 1) simple affinity control does not explain the observed dissolution rate for silicate minerals or glasses; 2) dissolution rates can be significantly modified by dissolved cations even under conditions far from saturation where the affinity term is near unity; 3) the effects of dissolved species such as Al and Si on the dissolution rate vary with pH, temperature, and saturation state; and 4) as temperature is increased, the effect of both pH and temperature on glass and mineral dissolution rates decrease, which strongly suggests a switch in rate control from surface reaction-based to diffusion control. Borosilicate glass dissolution models need to be upgraded to account for these recent experimental observations. (A.C.)

  8. PREDICTIVE MODELS FOR SUPPORT OF INCIDENT MANAGEMENT PROCESS IN IT SERVICE MANAGEMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martin SARNOVSKY

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT The work presented in this paper is focused on creating of predictive models that help in the process of incident resolution and implementation of IT infrastructure changes to increase the overall support of IT management. Our main objective was to build the predictive models using machine learning algorithms and CRISP-DM methodology. We used the incident and related changes database obtained from the IT environment of the Rabobank Group company, which contained information about the processing of the incidents during the incident management process. We decided to investigate the dependencies between the incident observation on particular infrastructure component and the actual source of the incident as well as the dependency between the incidents and related changes in the infrastructure. We used Random Forests and Gradient Boosting Machine classifiers in the process of identification of incident source as well as in the prediction of possible impact of the observed incident. Both types of models were tested on testing set and evaluated using defined metrics.

  9. Childhood Leukaemia Incidence in Hungary, 1973-2002. Interpolation Model for Analysing the Possible Effects of the Chernobyl Accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Toeroek, Szabolcs; Borgulya, Gabor; Lobmayer, Peter; Jakab, Zsuzsanna; Schuler, Dezsoe; Fekete, Gyoergy

    2005-01-01

    The incidence of childhood leukaemia in Hungary has yet to be reported, although data are available since the early 70s. The Hungarian data therefore cover the time before and after the Chernobyl nuclear accident (1986). The aim of this study was to assess the effects of the Chernobyl accident on childhood leukaemia incidence in Hungary. A population-based study was carried out using data of the National Paediatric Cancer Registry of Hungary from 1973 to 2002. The total number of cases was 2204. To test the effect of the Chernobyl accident the authors applied a new approach called 'Hypothesized Impact Period Interpolation'-model, which takes into account the increasing trend of childhood leukaemia incidence and the hypothesized exposure and latency times. The incidence of leukaemia in the age group 0-14 varied between 33.2 and 39.4 per million person-years along the observed 30 year period, and the incidence of childhood leukaemia showed a moderate increase of 0.71% annually (p=0.0105). In the period of the hypothesized impact of the Chernobyl accident the incidence rate was elevated by 2.5% (95% CI: -8.1%; +14.3%), but this change was not statistically significant (p=0.663). The age standardised incidence, the age distribution, the gender ratio, and the magnitude of increasing trend of childhood leukaemia incidence in Hungary were similar to other European countries. Applying the presented interpolation method the authors did not find a statistically significant increase in the leukaemia incidence in the period of the hypothesized impact of the Chernobyl accident

  10. Incidence rates of surgically treated rhegmatogenous retinal detachment among manual workers, non-manual workers and housewives in Tuscany, Italy

    OpenAIRE

    Curti, Stefania; Coggon, David; Baldasseroni, Alberto; Cooke, Robin M. T.; Fresina, Michela; Campos, Emilio C.; Semeraro, Francesco; Zanardi, Francesca; Farioli, Andrea; Violante, Francesco S.; Mattioli, Stefano

    2013-01-01

    Purpose Candidate risk factors for idiopathic rhegmatogenous retinal detachment (RRD) include heavy manual handling (requiring Valsalva’s maneuver). We assessed incidence rates of surgically treated idiopathic RRD among manual workers, non-manual workers and housewives resident in Tuscany, Italy. Methods We retrieved all hospital discharge records bearing a principal diagnosis corresponding to RRD coupled with retinal surgery for any resident of Tuscany during 1997–2009. After elimination of ...

  11. Increased incidence and recurrence rates of nonmelanoma skin cancer in patients with non-Hodgkin lymphoma: a Rochester Epidemiology Project population-based study in Minnesota.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brewer, Jerry D; Shanafelt, Tait D; Khezri, Farzaneh; Sosa Seda, Ivette M; Zubair, Adeel S; Baum, Christian L; Arpey, Christopher J; Cerhan, James R; Call, Timothy G; Roenigk, Randall K; Smith, Carin Y; Weaver, Amy L; Otley, Clark C

    2015-02-01

    Cutaneous malignancy is associated with worse outcomes in patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL). We sought to identify the incidence and recurrence rate of nonmelanoma skin cancer (NMSC) in patients with non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL). NMSC incidence was calculated and Cox proportional hazards models were used to evaluate associations with risk of recurrence for patients with NHL between 1976 and 2005 who were in the Rochester Epidemiology Project research infrastructure. We identified 282 patients with CLL or small lymphocytic lymphoma and 435 with non-CLL NHL. The incidence of basal cell carcinoma and squamous cell carcinoma was 1829.3 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1306.7-2491.1) and 2224.9 (95% CI 1645.9-2941.6), respectively, in patients with CLL. The cumulative recurrence rate at 8 years after treatment with Mohs micrographic surgery was 8.3% (95% CI 0.0%-22.7%) for basal cell carcinoma and 13.4% (95% CI 0.0%-25.5%) for squamous cell carcinoma in patients with CLL. This was a retrospective cohort study. After Mohs micrographic surgery and standard excision of NMSC, patients with NHL had a skin cancer recurrence rate that was higher than expected. Careful treatment and monitoring of patients with NHL and NMSC are warranted. Copyright © 2014 American Academy of Dermatology, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. Effect of climate variables on cocoa black pod incidence in Sabah using ARIMAX model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ling Sheng Chang, Albert; Ramba, Haya; Mohd. Jaaffar, Ahmad Kamil; Kim Phin, Chong; Chong Mun, Ho

    2016-06-01

    Cocoa black pod disease is one of the major diseases affecting the cocoa production in Malaysia and also around the world. Studies have shown that the climate variables have influenced the cocoa black pod disease incidence and it is important to quantify the black pod disease variation due to the effect of climate variables. Application of time series analysis especially auto-regressive moving average (ARIMA) model has been widely used in economics study and can be used to quantify the effect of climate variables on black pod incidence to forecast the right time to control the incidence. However, ARIMA model does not capture some turning points in cocoa black pod incidence. In order to improve forecasting performance, other explanatory variables such as climate variables should be included into ARIMA model as ARIMAX model. Therefore, this paper is to study the effect of climate variables on the cocoa black pod disease incidence using ARIMAX model. The findings of the study showed ARIMAX model using MA(1) and relative humidity at lag 7 days, RHt - 7 gave better R square value compared to ARIMA model using MA(1) which could be used to forecast the black pod incidence to assist the farmers determine timely application of fungicide spraying and culture practices to control the black pod incidence.

  13. Studies on Lyme disease incidence rates in selected groups of forestry workers in West Pomerania, 2005–2014

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tomasz Stawicki

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Background: The data collected by sanitary-epidemiological stations in 2005–2014 were analyzed to determine the incidence rates of borreliosis Lyme disease in the West Pomerania group of workers exposed to tick bites. Material and Methods: It was assumed that an adequate comparison of official epidemiological data with the data concerning the number of exposed people, is an indispensable condition for assessing properly the trend in Lyme disease incidence rates, concerning at the same time a real scale of occupational exposure. The study covered a selected group of forestry workers, i.e., white-collar staff employed in different units of the State Forests National Forest Holding with their seats in West Pomerania. The aim of the research was to process and analyze the data on workers employed in the forest sector and their positions, requested from district sanitary-epidemiological stations. Results: In the years concerned 282 cases of the occupational disease were recorded mainly in the groups of forest rangers, junior foresters and forest service inspectors. The values of the incidence factor exhibit high variability with the major share of cases recorded in the years 2008–2010 that accounted for 61.8% of the total occurrences concerned. The incidence in the years 2008, 2009 and 2010 amounted to 2418, 2828 and 2646 cases per 100 000 employees, respectively. Conclusions: The results show that previously published information about the incidence of Lyme disease in the agriculture, forestry and hunting sector, did not fully illustrate a real scale of occupational risk. Med Pr 2017;68(2:211–220

  14. 75 FR 80735 - Special Conditions: Gulfstream Model GVI Airplane; High Incidence Protection

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-12-23

    ... Special Conditions No. 25-10-03-SC] Special Conditions: Gulfstream Model GVI Airplane; High Incidence... airworthiness standards for transport category airplanes associated with the use of high incidence protection... transport airplane with an executive cabin interior. The maximum takeoff weight will be 99,600 pounds, with...

  15. 76 FR 17022 - Special Conditions: Gulfstream Model GVI Airplane; High Incidence Protection

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-03-28

    ... Special Conditions No. 25-423-SC] Special Conditions: Gulfstream Model GVI Airplane; High Incidence... for transport category airplanes associated with the use of high incidence protection. The applicable... with an executive cabin interior. The maximum takeoff weight will be 99,600 pounds, with a maximum...

  16. 77 FR 32006 - Special Conditions: Gulfstream Model GVI Airplane; High Incidence Protection

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-05-31

    ... Special Conditions No. 25-423-SC] Special Conditions: Gulfstream Model GVI Airplane; High Incidence... pertaining to a high incidence protection system that replaces the stall warning system during normal... the condition existing in the test or performance standard in which V SR is being used. (3) The weight...

  17. Decay rates of quarkonia and potential models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rai, Ajay Kumar; Pandya, J N; Vinodkumar, P C

    2005-01-01

    The decay rates of cc-bar and b-barb mesons have been studied with contributions from different correction terms. The corrections based on hard processes involved in the decays are quantitatively studied in the framework of different phenomenological potential models

  18. Incidence Rate of Concomitant Systemic Diseases in the Aging Population with Postmenopausal Osteoporosis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Selçuk Sayılır

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Objective: To evaluate the concomitant systemic diseases with postmenopausal osteoporosis and to investigate the points to be considered in treatment approach of patients with osteoporosis. Materials and Methods: The study included 110 female patients admitted to our clinic and followed up after postmenopausal osteoporosis diagnosis. Besides the demographic data; the concomitant diseases of the patients such as hypertension, hypo-hyperthyroidism, diabetes mellitus, Alzheimer’s disease, malignancy, osteoarthritis, gastrointestinal system diseases, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD- asthma and depression were also recorded. Results: The mean age of the patients included in our study was 65.9±9.8 years. When the concomitant systemic diseases were examined; 40 patients had hypertension, 32 patients had osteoarthritis, 24 patients had gastrointestinal tract problems, 22 patients had thyroid disease, 21 patients had depression, 15 patients had hyperlipidemia, 12 patients had diabetes mellitus, 10 patients had COPD - asthma, 7 patients had cardiac diseases, 5 patients had malignancy and 2 patients had Alzheimer disease. Conclusion: Osteoporosis is a common disease in the geriatric population. As a chronic disease with an increasing incidence with aging; it can cause many health problems, prevalently pathological bone fractures, in our country and all over the world. Constitutively, prophylaxis of osteoporosis should be the first step. Because systemic diseases with increasing incidence with aging may affect the severity of osteoporosis and impair the treatment; it is important for both clinicians and the society to have sufficient information about osteoporosis.

  19. Acute Myocardial Infarction Population Incidence and Mortality Rates, and 28-day Case-fatality in Older Adults. The REGICOR Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vázquez-Oliva, Gabriel; Zamora, Alberto; Ramos, Rafel; Marti, Ruth; Subirana, Isaac; Grau, María; Dégano, Irene R; Marrugat, Jaume; Elosua, Roberto

    2017-11-22

    Our aims were to determine acute myocardial infarction (AMI) incidence and mortality rates, and population and in-hospital case-fatality in the population older than 74 years; variability in clinical characteristics and AMI management of hospitalized patients, and changes in the incidence and mortality rates, case-fatality, and management by age groups from 1996 to 1997 and 2007 to 2008. A population-based AMI registry in Girona (Catalonia, Spain) including individuals with suspected AMI older than 34 years. The incidence rate increased with age from 169 and 28 cases/100 000 per year in the group aged 35 to 64 years to 2306 and 1384 cases/100 000 per year in the group aged 85 to 94 years, in men and women, respectively. Population case-fatality also increased with age, from 19% in the group aged 35 to 64 years to 84% in the group aged 85 to 94 years. A lower population case-fatality was observed in the second period, mainly explained by a lower in-hospital case-fatality. The use of invasive procedures and effective drugs decreased with age but increased in the second period in all ages up to 84 years. Acute myocardial infarction incidence, mortality, and case-fatality increased exponentially with age. There is still a gap in the use of invasive procedures and effective drugs between younger and older patients. Copyright © 2017 Sociedad Española de Cardiología. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  20. Compensation claims for occupational noise induced hearing loss between 1998 and 2008: yearly incidence rates and trends in older workers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Radi, Samia; Benke, Geza; Schaafsma, Frederieke; Sim, Malcolm

    2016-04-01

    To estimate yearly incidence rates for occupational noise induced hearing loss (ONIHL) claims and to describe occupational factors in relation to age for incident cases in Victoria, Australia, between 1998 and 2008. All compensation claims lodged for deafness between 1 July 1998 and 30 June 2008 in the working population covered by the Victorian compensation scheme were analysed. Denominators were provided from 1999-2000 and incidence rates were expressed per 100,000 workers for each financial year. Overall, 81.2% of the 4,518 claims lodged were accepted. Successful claimants were predominantly males (96.5%) and claimants aged 56 to 65 years formed half the overall claims. The number of accepted claims was almost five times higher in 2007-08 than 1998-99. The highest rise was in claimants aged 56 years and above, particularly in those after retirement age. The number of claims and yearly incidence rates (IR) more than doubled over the period (240 claims and IR of 15.1 per 100,000 workers in 1999-2000 versus 669 claims and IR of 34.2 in 2007-08) with a sharp increase from 2004-05 to almost double within one single year and remained at high levels afterwards. The dramatic increase in eligible claims may reflect an increase in awareness of entitlements among workers eligible to make a successful claim. This awareness may be the result of increased opportunities for screening coinciding with changes in regulations. Older workers who worked in smaller workplaces may also be targeted by services providers as they combine occupational noise induced hearing loss (ONIHL) and presbycusis (hearing loss due to age), but this hypothesis needs further evaluation. © 2015 Public Health Association of Australia.

  1. The incidence rate and mortality of malignant brain tumors after 10 years of intensive cell phone use in Taiwan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsu, Min-Huei; Syed-Abdul, Shabbir; Scholl, Jeremiah; Jian, Wen-Shan; Lee, Peisan; Iqbal, Usman; Li, Yu-Chuan

    2013-11-01

    The issue of whether cell phone usage can contribute toward the development of brain tumors has recently been reignited with the International Agency for Research on Cancer classifying radiofrequency electromagnetic fields as 'possibly' carcinogenic to humans in a WHO report. To our knowledge, this is the largest study reporting on the incidence and mortality of malignant brain tumors after long-term use of the cell phone by more than 23 million users. A population-based study was carried out the numbers of cell phone users were collected from the official statistics provided by the National Communication Commission. According to National Cancer Registry, there were 4 incidences and 4 deaths due to malignant neoplasms in Taiwan during the period 2000-2009. The 10 years of observational data show that the intensive user rate of cell phones has had no significant effect on the incidence rate or on the mortality of malignant brain tumors in Taiwan. In conclusion, we do not detect any correlation between the morbidity/mortality of malignant brain tumors and cell phone use in Taiwan. We thus urge international agencies to publish only confirmatory reports with more applicable conclusions in public. This will help spare the public from unnecessary worries.

  2. Sports members' participation in assessment of incidence rate of injuries in five sports from records of hospital-based clinical treatment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kingma, J; ten Duis, HJ

    This study is about the incidence rate of sports injuries in five different types of sports, gymnastics, soccer, volleyball, hockey, and basketball, for which 5,154 patients were admitted to the Emergency Unit of the Groningen University Hospital during the period 1990 through 1994. Incidence rate

  3. Analysis of an SEIR Epidemic Model with Saturated Incidence and Saturated Treatment Function

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jinhong Zhang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The dynamics of SEIR epidemic model with saturated incidence rate and saturated treatment function are explored in this paper. The basic reproduction number that determines disease extinction and disease survival is given. The existing threshold conditions of all kinds of the equilibrium points are obtained. Sufficient conditions are established for the existence of backward bifurcation. The local asymptotical stability of equilibrium is verified by analyzing the eigenvalues and using the Routh-Hurwitz criterion. We also discuss the global asymptotical stability of the endemic equilibrium by autonomous convergence theorem. The study indicates that we should improve the efficiency and enlarge the capacity of the treatment to control the spread of disease. Numerical simulations are presented to support and complement the theoretical findings.

  4. Incidence and Mortality Rates and Clinical Characteristics of Type 1 Diabetes among Children and Young Adults in Cochabamba, Bolivia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elizabeth Duarte Gómez

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Objectives. To determine incidence, mortality, and clinical status of youth with diabetes at the Centro Vivir con Diabetes, Cochabamba, Bolivia, with support from International Diabetes Federation Life for a Child Program. Methods. Incidence/mortality data analysis of all cases (<25 year (y diagnosed January 2005–February 2017 and cross-sectional data (December 2015. Results. Over 12.2 years, 144 cases with type 1 diabetes (T1D were diagnosed; 43.1% were male. Diagnosis age was 0.3–22.2 y; peak was 11-12 y. 11.1% were <5 y; 29.2%, 5–<10 y; 43.1%, 10–<15 y; 13.2%, 15–<20 y; and 3.5%, 20–<25 y. The youngest is being investigated for monogenic diabetes. Measured incidence in Cercado Province (Cochabamba Department was 2.2/100,000 children < 15 y/y, with ≈80% ascertainment, giving total incidence of 2.7/100,000 children < 15 y/y. Two had died. Crude mortality rate was 2.3/1000 patient years. Clinical data on 141 cases <35 y: mean/median HbA1c was 8.5/8.2% (69/62 mmol/mol, levels higher in adolescents. Three were on renal replacement therapy; four others had substantial renal impairment. Elevated BMI, triglycerides, and cholesterol were common: 19.1%, 18.3%, and 39.1%, respectively. Conclusions. Bolivia has low T1D incidence. Reasonable glycemic control is being achieved despite limited resources; however, some have serious complications and adverse cardiovascular risk factor profiles. Further attention is needed for complications.

  5. A comparative examination of tuberculosis immigration medical screening programs from selected countries with high immigration and low tuberculosis incidence rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-01

    Background Tuberculosis (TB) in migrants is an ongoing challenge in several low TB incidence countries since a large proportion of TB in these countries occurs in migrants from high incidence countries. To meet these challenges, several countries utilize TB screening programs. The programs attempt to identify and treat those with active and/or infectious stages of the disease. In addition, screening is used to identify and manage those with latent or inactive disease after arrival. Between nations, considerable variation exists in the methods used in migration-associated TB screening. The present study aimed to compare the TB immigration medical examination requirements in selected countries of high immigration and low TB incidence rates. Methods Descriptive study of immigration TB screening programs Results 16 out of 18 eligible countries responded to the written standardized survey and phone interview. Comparisons in specific areas of TB immigration screening programs included authorities responsible for TB screening, the primary objectives of the TB screening program, the yield of detection of active TB disease, screening details and aspects of follow up for inactive pulmonary TB. No two countries had the same approach to TB screening among migrants. Important differences, common practices, common problems, evidence or lack of evidence for program specifics were noted. Conclusions In spite of common goals, there is great diversity in the processes and practices designed to mitigate the impact of migration-associated TB among nations that screen migrants for the disease. The long-term goal in decreasing migration-related introduction of TB from high to low incidence countries remains diminishing the prevalence of the disease in those high incidence locations. In the meantime, existing or planned migration screening programs for TB can be made more efficient and evidenced based. Cooperation among countries doing research in the areas outlined in this study should

  6. Reduced rate of human papillomavirus infection and genetic overtransmission of TP53 72C polymorphic variant lower cervical cancer incidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alsbeih, Ghazi A; Al-Harbi, Najla M; Bin Judia, Sara S; Khoja, Hatim A; Shoukri, Mohamed M; Tulbah, Asma M

    2017-07-01

    Cervical cancer is a predominantly human papillomavirus (HPV)-driven disease worldwide. However, its incidence is unexplainably low in western Asia, including Saudi Arabia. Using this paradigm, we investigated the role of HPV infection rate and host genetic predisposition in TP53 G72C single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) presumed to affect cancer incidence. Patients treated between 1990 and 2012 were reviewed, and a series of 232 invasive cervical cancer cases were studied and compared with 313 matched controls without cancer. SNP was genotyped by way of direct sequencing. HPV linear array analysis was used to detect and genotype HPV in tumor samples. The incidence of cervical cancer revealed bimodal peaks at 42.5 years, with a slighter rebound at 60.8 years. Among all cases, 77% were HPV-positive and 16 HPV genotypes were detected-mostly genotypes 16 (75%) and 18 (9%)-with no difference by age, histology, or geographical region. Although the TP53 G72C genotype was not associated with overall cervical cancer risk, it was significantly associated with HPV positivity (odds ratio, 0.57; 95% confidence interval, 0.36-0.90; P = .016). Furthermore, the variant C allele was significantly overtransmitted in the population (P Cervical cancer incidence displays bimodal curve peaking at a young age with secondary rebound at older age. The combination of relative low HPV infection and variant TP53 72C allele overtransmission provide a plausible explanation for the low incidence of cervical cancer in our population. Therefore, HPV screening and host SNP genotyping may provide more relevant biomarkers to gauge the risk of developing cervical cancer. Cancer 2017;123:2459-66. © 2017 American Cancer Society. © 2017 The Authors. Cancer published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of American Cancer Society.

  7. Paradoxical Acinetobacter-associated ventilator-associated pneumonia incidence rates within prevention studies using respiratory tract applications of topical polymyxin: benchmarking the evidence base.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hurley, J C

    2018-04-10

    Regimens containing topical polymyxin appear to be more effective in preventing ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP) than other methods. To benchmark the incidence rates of Acinetobacter-associated VAP (AAVAP) within component (control and intervention) groups from concurrent controlled studies of polymyxin compared with studies of various VAP prevention methods other than polymyxin (non-polymyxin studies). An AAVAP benchmark was derived using data from 77 observational groups without any VAP prevention method under study. Data from 41 non-polymyxin studies provided additional points of reference. The benchmarking was undertaken by meta-regression using generalized estimating equation methods. Within 20 studies of topical polymyxin, the mean AAVAP was 4.6% [95% confidence interval (CI) 3.0-6.9] and 3.7% (95% CI 2.0-5.3) for control and intervention groups, respectively. In contrast, the AAVAP benchmark was 1.5% (95% CI 1.2-2.0). In the AAVAP meta-regression model, group origin from a trauma intensive care unit (+0.55; +0.16 to +0.94, P = 0.006) or membership of a polymyxin control group (+0.64; +0.21 to +1.31, P = 0.023), but not membership of a polymyxin intervention group (+0.24; -0.37 to +0.84, P = 0.45), were significant positive correlates. The mean incidence of AAVAP within the control groups of studies of topical polymyxin is more than double the benchmark, whereas the incidence rates within the groups of non-polymyxin studies and, paradoxically, polymyxin intervention groups are more similar to the benchmark. These incidence rates, which are paradoxical in the context of an apparent effect against VAP within controlled trials of topical polymyxin-based interventions, force a re-appraisal. Copyright © 2018 The Healthcare Infection Society. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. The Incidence of Sixteenth Century Cosmic Models in Modern Texts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maene, S. A.; Best, J. S.; Usher, P. D.

    1999-12-01

    In the sixteenth century, the bounded cosmological models of Copernicus (1543) and Tycho Brahe (1588), and the unbounded model of Thomas Digges (1576), vied with the bounded geocentric model of Ptolemy (c. 140 AD). The work of the philosopher Giordano Bruno in 1584 lent further support to the Digges model. Despite the eventual acceptance of the unbounded universe, analysis of over 100 modern introductory astronomy texts reveals that these early unbounded models are mentioned infrequently. The ratio of mentions of Digges' model to Copernicus' model has the surprisingly low value of R = 0.08. The philosophical speculation of Bruno receives mention more than twice as often (R = 0.17). The expectation that these early unbounded models warrant inclusion in astronomy texts is supported both by modern hindsight and by the literature of the time. In Shakespeare's "Hamlet" of c. 1601, Prince Hamlet suffers from two transformations. According to the cosmic allegorical model, one transformation changes the bounded geocentricism of Ptolemy to the bounded heliocentricism of Copernicus, while the other completes the change to Digges' model of the infinite universe of suns. This interpretation and the modern world view suggest that both transformations should receive equal mention and thus that the ratio R in introductory texts should be close to unity. This work was supported in part by the NASA West Virginia Space Grant Consortium.

  9. Leak rate models and leak detection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-01-01

    Leak detection may be carried out by a number of detection systems, but selection of the systems must be carefully adapted to the fluid state and the location of the leak in the reactor coolant system. Computer programs for the calculation of leak rates contain different models to take into account the fluid state before its entrance into the crack, and they have to be verified by experiments; agreement between experiments and calculations is generally not satisfactory for very small leak rates resulting from narrow cracks or from a closing bending moment

  10. Development of a subway operation incident delay model using accelerated failure time approaches.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weng, Jinxian; Zheng, Yang; Yan, Xuedong; Meng, Qiang

    2014-12-01

    This study aims to develop a subway operational incident delay model using the parametric accelerated time failure (AFT) approach. Six parametric AFT models including the log-logistic, lognormal and Weibull models, with fixed and random parameters are built based on the Hong Kong subway operation incident data from 2005 to 2012, respectively. In addition, the Weibull model with gamma heterogeneity is also considered to compare the model performance. The goodness-of-fit test results show that the log-logistic AFT model with random parameters is most suitable for estimating the subway incident delay. First, the results show that a longer subway operation incident delay is highly correlated with the following factors: power cable failure, signal cable failure, turnout communication disruption and crashes involving a casualty. Vehicle failure makes the least impact on the increment of subway operation incident delay. According to these results, several possible measures, such as the use of short-distance and wireless communication technology (e.g., Wifi and Zigbee) are suggested to shorten the delay caused by subway operation incidents. Finally, the temporal transferability test results show that the developed log-logistic AFT model with random parameters is stable over time. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Apparently-Different Clearance Rates from Cohort Studies of Mycoplasma genitalium Are Consistent after Accounting for Incidence of Infection, Recurrent Infection, and Study Design.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Timo Smieszek

    Full Text Available Mycoplasma genitalium is a potentially major cause of urethritis, cervicitis, pelvic inflammatory disease, infertility, and increased HIV risk. A better understanding of its natural history is crucial to informing control policy. Two extensive cohort studies (students in London, UK; Ugandan sex workers suggest very different clearance rates; we aimed to understand the reasons and obtain improved estimates by making maximal use of the data from the studies. As M. genitalium is a sexually-transmitted infectious disease, we developed a model for time-to-event analysis that incorporates the processes of (reinfection and clearance, and fitted to data from the two cohort studies to estimate incidence and clearance rates under different scenarios of sexual partnership dynamics and study design (including sample handling and associated test sensitivity. In the London students, the estimated clearance rate is 0.80 p.a. (mean duration 15 months, with incidence 1.31%-3.93% p.a. Without adjusting for study design, corresponding estimates from the Ugandan data are 3.44 p.a. (mean duration 3.5 months and 58% p.a. Apparent differences in clearance rates are probably mostly due to lower testing sensitivity in the Uganda study due to differences in sample handling, with 'true' clearance rates being similar, and adjusted incidence in Uganda being 28% p.a. Some differences are perhaps due to the sex workers having more-frequent antibiotic treatment, whilst reinfection within ongoing sexual partnerships might have caused some of the apparently-persistent infection in the London students. More information on partnership dynamics would inform more accurate estimates of natural-history parameters. Detailed studies in men are also required.

  12. Addressing water incidents by using pipe network models

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Yoyo, Sonwabiso

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available quantities like flow rate and pressure with water meters. Such an approach provides a highly exact and realistic understanding, but is potentially very expensive to implement. This is especially so in view of the large number water infrastructure networks...

  13. Gaussian Mixture Model of Heart Rate Variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costa, Tommaso; Boccignone, Giuseppe; Ferraro, Mario

    2012-01-01

    Heart rate variability (HRV) is an important measure of sympathetic and parasympathetic functions of the autonomic nervous system and a key indicator of cardiovascular condition. This paper proposes a novel method to investigate HRV, namely by modelling it as a linear combination of Gaussians. Results show that three Gaussians are enough to describe the stationary statistics of heart variability and to provide a straightforward interpretation of the HRV power spectrum. Comparisons have been made also with synthetic data generated from different physiologically based models showing the plausibility of the Gaussian mixture parameters. PMID:22666386

  14. Predicting extinction rates in stochastic epidemic models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schwartz, Ira B; Billings, Lora; Dykman, Mark; Landsman, Alexandra

    2009-01-01

    We investigate the stochastic extinction processes in a class of epidemic models. Motivated by the process of natural disease extinction in epidemics, we examine the rate of extinction as a function of disease spread. We show that the effective entropic barrier for extinction in a susceptible–infected–susceptible epidemic model displays scaling with the distance to the bifurcation point, with an unusual critical exponent. We make a direct comparison between predictions and numerical simulations. We also consider the effect of non-Gaussian vaccine schedules, and show numerically how the extinction process may be enhanced when the vaccine schedules are Poisson distributed

  15. Modeling the Volatility of Exchange Rates: GARCH Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fahima Charef

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The modeling of the dynamics of the exchange rate at a long time remains a financial and economic research center. In our research we tried to study the relationship between the evolution of exchange rates and macroeconomic fundamentals. Our empirical study is based on a series of exchange rates for the Tunisian dinar against three currencies of major trading partners (dollar, euro, yen and fundamentals (the terms of trade, the inflation rate, the interest rate differential, of monthly data, from jan 2000 to dec-2014, for the case of the Tunisia. We have adopted models of conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH, GARCH, EGARCH, TGARCH. The results indicate that there is a partial relationship between the evolution of the Tunisian dinar exchange rates and macroeconomic variables.

  16. Modeling the relationship between precipitation and malaria incidence in children from a holoendemic area in Ghana.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krefis, Anne Caroline; Schwarz, Norbert Georg; Krüger, Andreas; Fobil, Julius; Nkrumah, Bernard; Acquah, Samuel; Loag, Wibke; Sarpong, Nimako; Adu-Sarkodie, Yaw; Ranft, Ulrich; May, Jürgen

    2011-02-01

    Climatic factors influence the incidence of vector-borne diseases such as malaria. They modify the abundance of mosquito populations, the length of the extrinsic parasite cycle in the mosquito, the malarial dynamics, and the emergence of epidemics in areas of low endemicity. The objective of this study was to investigate temporal associations between weekly malaria incidence in 1,993 children < 15 years of age and weekly rainfall. A time series analysis was conducted by using cross-correlation function and autoregressive modeling. The regression model showed that the level of rainfall predicted the malaria incidence after a time lag of 9 weeks (mean = 60 days) and after a time lag between one and two weeks. The analyses provide evidence that high-resolution precipitation data can directly predict malaria incidence in a highly endemic area. Such models might enable the development of early warning systems and support intervention measures.

  17. Plasmodium falciparum incidence relative to entomologic inoculation rates at a site proposed for testing malaria vaccines in western Kenya.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beier, J C; Oster, C N; Onyango, F K; Bales, J D; Sherwood, J A; Perkins, P V; Chumo, D K; Koech, D V; Whitmire, R E; Roberts, C R

    1994-05-01

    Relationships between Plasmodium falciparum incidence and entomologic inoculation rates (EIRs) were determined for a 21-month period in Saradidi, western Kenya, in preparation for malaria vaccine field trials. Children, ranging in age from six months to six years and treated to clear malaria parasites, were monitored daily for up to 12 weeks to detect new malaria infections. Overall, new P. falciparum infections were detected in 77% of 809 children. The percentage of children that developed infections per two-week period averaged 34.7%, ranging from 7.3% to 90.9%. Transmission by vector populations was detected in 86.4% (38 of 44) of the two-week periods, with daily EIRs averaging 0.75 infective bites per person. Periods of intense transmission during April to August, and from November to January, coincided with seasonal rains. Relationships between daily malaria attack rates and EIRs indicated that an average of only 7.5% (1 in 13) of the sporozoite inoculations produced new infections in children. Regression analysis demonstrated that EIRs accounted for 74% of the variation in attack rates. One of the components of the EIR, the human-biting rate, alone accounted for 68% of the variation in attack rates. Thus, measurements of either the EIR or the human-biting rate can be used to predict corresponding attack rates in children. These baseline epidemiologic studies indicate that the intense transmission patterns of P. falciparum in Saradidi will provide excellent conditions for evaluating malaria vaccine efficacy.

  18. [Lung cancer in Avila province, Spain. Incidence rates, epidemiolgy of the year 2012 and trends in the last 20 years].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hernández-Hernández, J R; Moreno de Vega-Herrero, M B; Iglesias-Heras, M; García-García, R; Hernández-Terciado, F; Celdrán-Gil, J

    2015-10-01

    To determine the extent of lung cancer in Alvila. Its incidence rates and significant epidemiological aspects of the year 2012 were recorded, and the results of each 5-year period (up to 20 years) were compared with those of known studies conducted using the same methodology. A prospective study was conducted on all patients diagnosed with lung cancer in the Province of Avila throughout the year 2012. A total of 81 patients were diagnosed, of whom 70 were males and 11 females, with a mean age of 72.1 years (range: 44-91), and was higher than that found in previous studies. This gave gross, and adjusted to the standard world population, incidence rates in 2012 of 80.99 and 31.23 per 100,000, respectively, in males, and 12.97 and 5.68 per 100,000, respectively in females. These rates are lower in both sexes than those found in Alvila in 2002. In 2012, 80.25% had been smokers (90% of males and 18.18% of the women), although, on diagnosis, 68.75% had quit smoking. A clinical-radiological diagnosis was made in 9 (11.1%), with a histocytological diagnosis in 72 (88.9%). The histological types were: adenocarcinomas in 37.5%; squamous in 33.3%; microcytic in 13.8%; undifferentiated non-small cell in 11.1%; large cell in 2.77%, and carcinoid in 1.38%. The most frequent treatments were chemotherapy (50.6%), symptomatic (23.4%), and surgery (12.3%). The incidence of lung cancer in Avila has decreased in both sexes in the last 10 years. In 2012, the patients have been older, the majority with adenocarcinoma histology, and receiving chemotherapy. Copyright © 2014 Sociedad Española de Médicos de Atención Primaria (SEMERGEN). Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  19. Incident rate and risk factors for tuberculosis among patients with type 2 diabetes: retrospective cohort study in Shanghai, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qiu, Hanbo; Shi, Yan; Li, Yanyun; Shen, Xin; Li, Rui; Yang, Qundi; Pan, Qichao; Yan, Fei

    2017-07-01

    To examine the incident rate of tuberculosis (TB) and its associates among adults with type 2 diabetes in Shanghai, China. We conducted a retrospective cohort study among 170 399 patients with type 2 diabetes aged ≥18 years who were registered in Shanghai community-based diabetes management system between 2004 and 2009. Their TB status was tracked until 31 December 2014. Cox regression was performed to identify the risk factors for TB. We documented 785 new TB cases during 654 977 person-years of follow-up. The incident rate of TB was 224.20 (206.69, 243.16) per 100 000 person-years among men and 51.34 (44.75, 58.92) per 100 000 person-years among women. A 1-unit increase of BMI was associated with a risk reduction in 16% (P < 0.01) for men and a 14% (P < 0.01) reduction for women. TB cases were more likely to be insulin-dependent [men: hazard ratio = 2.13 (1.29, 3.53); women: 3.28 (1.28, 8.39)] and had a poor glucose level initially [men: 1.21 (1.15, 1.27); women: 1.27 (1.18, 1.37)]. The risk factor for TB specific to men was a young age at diagnosis of diabetes, and the protective factor specific to women was actively engaging in physical activity. TB incident rate among patients with type 2 diabetes was substantially higher among men than among women. The risk of TB was reversely associated with initial BMI. The severity of poor glucose control among patients with diabetes was also linearly associated with the risk of TB. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  20. Data study of death rate and cancer incidence among Thule workers, 2005; Registerundersoegelse af doedelighed og kraeftforekomst blandt Thulearbejdere, 2005

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Juel, K. [Statens Insti. for Folkesundhed, Copenhagen (Denmark); Engholm, G.; Storm, H. [Kraeftens Bekaempelse, Copenhagen (Denmark)

    2005-12-01

    January 21st, 1968, an American B52 bomber with nuclear weapons aboard crashed close to the Thule air-base in Greenland. In 1986 suspicions arose that there might be increased disease incidences and death rate among the employees at the base that were involved in the clearing operations. During 1986 - 1995, several health studies were made of the Thule workers. These studies of death rate, cancer, hospitalization, and fertility did not show any differences between the Thule workers from the clearing operations and those not involved in the clearing. The present study shows no difference in total death rate among the clearing workers compared to other workers. The same results were found for cancer mortality, circulatory diseases, pulmonary diseases, natural causes, and accidents. As the previous studies showed, the present study shows that there were a slightly less number of suicides among the clearing workers. The data analyses show with great certainty that the Thule workers as a group do not have a great excessive mortality or an increased cancer incidence caused by the aircraft crash. Thus, the present results fall in line with the previous investigations. (ln)

  1. A joint model of cancer incidence, metastasis, and mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tran, Qui; Kidwell, Kelley M; Tsodikov, Alex

    2017-09-04

    Many diseases, especially cancer, are not static, but rather can be summarized by a series of events or stages (e.g. diagnosis, remission, recurrence, metastasis, death). Most available methods to analyze multi-stage data ignore intermediate events and focus on the terminal event or consider (time to) multiple events as independent. Competing-risk or semi-competing-risk models are often deficient in describing the complex relationship between disease progression events which are driven by a shared progression stochastic process. A multi-stage model can only examine two stages at a time and thus fails to capture the effect of one stage on the time spent between other stages. Moreover, most models do not account for latent stages. We propose a semi-parametric joint model of diagnosis, latent metastasis, and cancer death and use nonparametric maximum likelihood to estimate covariate effects on the risks of intermediate events and death and the dependence between them. We illustrate the model with Monte Carlo simulations and analysis of real data on prostate cancer from the SEER database.

  2. Population-Based Incidence Rates of Cervical Intraepithelial Neoplasia in the Human Papillomavirus Vaccine Era.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benard, Vicki B; Castle, Philip E; Jenison, Steven A; Hunt, William C; Kim, Jane J; Cuzick, Jack; Lee, Ji-Hyun; Du, Ruofei; Robertson, Michael; Norville, Scott; Wheeler, Cosette M

    2017-06-01

    A substantial effect of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccines on reducing HPV-related cervical disease is essential before modifying clinical practice guidelines in partially vaccinated populations. To determine the population-based cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) trends when adjusting for changes in cervical screening practices that overlapped with HPV vaccination implementation. The New Mexico HPV Pap Registry, which captures population-based estimates of both cervical screening prevalence and CIN, was used to compute CIN trends from January 1, 2007, to December 31, 2014. Under New Mexico Administrative Code, the New Mexico HPV Pap Registry, a statewide public health surveillance program, receives mandatory reporting of all cervical screening (cytologic and HPV testing) and any cervical, vulvar, and vaginal histopathological findings for all women residing in New Mexico irrespective of outcome. Prespecified outcome measures included low-grade CIN (grade 1 [CIN1]) and high-grade CIN (grade 2 [CIN2] and grade 3 [CIN3]). From 2007 to 2014, a total of 13 520 CIN1, 4296 CIN2, and 2823 CIN3 lesions were diagnosed among female individuals 15 to 29 years old. After adjustment for changes in cervical screening across the period, reductions in the CIN incidence per 100 000 women screened were significant for all grades of CIN among female individuals 15 to 19 years old, dropping from 3468.3 to 1590.6 for CIN1 (annual percentage change [APC], -9.0; 95% CI, -12.0 to -5.8; P women 20 to 24 years old, dropping from 1027.7 to 627.1 (APC, -6.3; 95% CI, -10.9 to -1.4; P = .02). Population-level decreases in CIN among cohorts partially vaccinated for HPV may be considered when clinical practice guidelines for cervical cancer screening are reassessed. Evidence is rapidly growing to suggest that further increases in raising the age to start screening are imminent, one step toward integrating screening and vaccination.

  3. Modelling of rate effects at multiple scales

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, R.R.; Simone, A.; Sluys, L. J.

    2008-01-01

    , the length scale in the meso-model and the macro-model can be coupled. In this fashion, a bridging of length scales can be established. A computational analysis of  a Split Hopkinson bar test at medium and high impact load is carried out at macro-scale and meso-scale including information from  the micro-scale.......At the macro- and meso-scales a rate dependent constitutive model is used in which visco-elasticity is coupled to visco-plasticity and damage. A viscous length scale effect is introduced to control the size of the fracture process zone. By comparison of the widths of the fracture process zone...

  4. Death Rates in the Calorie Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martin Machay

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The Calorie model unifies the Classical demand and the supply in the food market. Hence, solves the major problem of Classical stationary state. It is, hence, formalization of the Classical theory of population. The model does not reflect the imperfections of reality mentioned by Malthus himself. It is the aim of this brief paper to relax some of the strong assumptions of the Calorie model to make it more realistic. As the results show the political economists were correct. The death resulting from malnutrition can occur way sooner than the stationary state itself. Moreover, progressive and retrograde movements can be easily described by the death rate derived in the paper. JEL Classification: J11, Q11, Q15, Q21, Y90.

  5. Contribution of H. pylori and smoking trends to US incidence of intestinal-type noncardia gastric adenocarcinoma: a microsimulation model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jennifer M Yeh

    Full Text Available Although gastric cancer has declined dramatically in the US, the disease remains the second leading cause of cancer mortality worldwide. A better understanding of reasons for the decline can provide important insights into effective preventive strategies. We sought to estimate the contribution of risk factor trends on past and future intestinal-type noncardia gastric adenocarcinoma (NCGA incidence.We developed a population-based microsimulation model of intestinal-type NCGA and calibrated it to US epidemiologic data on precancerous lesions and cancer. The model explicitly incorporated the impact of Helicobacter pylori and smoking on disease natural history, for which birth cohort-specific trends were derived from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES and National Health Interview Survey (NHIS. Between 1978 and 2008, the model estimated that intestinal-type NCGA incidence declined 60% from 11.0 to 4.4 per 100,000 men, <3% discrepancy from national statistics. H. pylori and smoking trends combined accounted for 47% (range = 30%-58% of the observed decline. With no tobacco control, incidence would have declined only 56%, suggesting that lower smoking initiation and higher cessation rates observed after the 1960s accelerated the relative decline in cancer incidence by 7% (range = 0%-21%. With continued risk factor trends, incidence is projected to decline an additional 47% between 2008 and 2040, the majority of which will be attributable to H. pylori and smoking (81%; range = 61%-100%. Limitations include assuming all other risk factors influenced gastric carcinogenesis as one factor and restricting the analysis to men.Trends in modifiable risk factors explain a significant proportion of the decline of intestinal-type NCGA incidence in the US, and are projected to continue. Although past tobacco control efforts have hastened the decline, full benefits will take decades to be realized, and further discouragement of smoking and

  6. Contribution of H. pylori and smoking trends to US incidence of intestinal-type noncardia gastric adenocarcinoma: a microsimulation model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yeh, Jennifer M; Hur, Chin; Schrag, Deb; Kuntz, Karen M; Ezzati, Majid; Stout, Natasha; Ward, Zachary; Goldie, Sue J

    2013-01-01

    Although gastric cancer has declined dramatically in the US, the disease remains the second leading cause of cancer mortality worldwide. A better understanding of reasons for the decline can provide important insights into effective preventive strategies. We sought to estimate the contribution of risk factor trends on past and future intestinal-type noncardia gastric adenocarcinoma (NCGA) incidence. We developed a population-based microsimulation model of intestinal-type NCGA and calibrated it to US epidemiologic data on precancerous lesions and cancer. The model explicitly incorporated the impact of Helicobacter pylori and smoking on disease natural history, for which birth cohort-specific trends were derived from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) and National Health Interview Survey (NHIS). Between 1978 and 2008, the model estimated that intestinal-type NCGA incidence declined 60% from 11.0 to 4.4 per 100,000 men, <3% discrepancy from national statistics. H. pylori and smoking trends combined accounted for 47% (range = 30%-58%) of the observed decline. With no tobacco control, incidence would have declined only 56%, suggesting that lower smoking initiation and higher cessation rates observed after the 1960s accelerated the relative decline in cancer incidence by 7% (range = 0%-21%). With continued risk factor trends, incidence is projected to decline an additional 47% between 2008 and 2040, the majority of which will be attributable to H. pylori and smoking (81%; range = 61%-100%). Limitations include assuming all other risk factors influenced gastric carcinogenesis as one factor and restricting the analysis to men. Trends in modifiable risk factors explain a significant proportion of the decline of intestinal-type NCGA incidence in the US, and are projected to continue. Although past tobacco control efforts have hastened the decline, full benefits will take decades to be realized, and further discouragement of smoking and reduction of

  7. An Incidence Loss Model for Wave Rotors with Axially Aligned Passages

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paxson, Daniel E.

    1998-01-01

    A simple mathematical model is described to account for the losses incurred when the flow in the duct (port) of a wave rotor is not aligned with the passages. The model, specifically for wave rotors with axially aligned passages, describes a loss mechanism which is sensitive to incident flow angle and Mach number. Implementation of the model in a one-dimensional CFD based wave rotor simulation is presented. Comparisons with limited experimental results are consistent with the model. Sensitivity studies are presented which highlight the significance of the incidence loss relative to other loss mechanisms in the wave rotor.

  8. Modeling patient safety incidents knowledge with the Categorial Structure method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Souvignet, Julien; Bousquet, Cédric; Lewalle, Pierre; Trombert-Paviot, Béatrice; Rodrigues, Jean Marie

    2011-01-01

    Following the WHO initiative named World Alliance for Patient Safety (PS) launched in 2004 a conceptual framework developed by PS national reporting experts has summarized the knowledge available. As a second step, the Department of Public Health of the University of Saint Etienne team elaborated a Categorial Structure (a semi formal structure not related to an upper level ontology) identifying the elements of the semantic structure underpinning the broad concepts contained in the framework for patient safety. This knowledge engineering method has been developed to enable modeling patient safety information as a prerequisite for subsequent full ontology development. The present article describes the semantic dissection of the concepts, the elicitation of the ontology requirements and the domain constraints of the conceptual framework. This ontology includes 134 concepts and 25 distinct relations and will serve as basis for an Information Model for Patient Safety.

  9. A Multicountry Ecological Study of Cancer Incidence Rates in 2008 with Respect to Various Risk-Modifying Factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    William B. Grant

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Observational and ecological studies are generally used to determine the presence of effect of cancer risk-modifying factors. Researchers generally agree that environmental factors such as smoking, alcohol consumption, poor diet, lack of physical activity, and low serum 25-hdyroxyvitamin D levels are important cancer risk factors. This ecological study used age-adjusted incidence rates for 21 cancers for 157 countries (87 with high-quality data in 2008 with respect to dietary supply and other factors, including per capita gross domestic product, life expectancy, lung cancer incidence rate (an index for smoking, and latitude (an index for solar ultraviolet-B doses. The factors found to correlate strongly with multiple types of cancer were lung cancer (direct correlation with 12 types of cancer, energy derived from animal products (direct correlation with 12 types of cancer, inverse with two, latitude (direct correlation with six types, inverse correlation with three, and per capita gross national product (five types. Life expectancy and sweeteners directly correlated with three cancers, animal fat with two, and alcohol with one. Consumption of animal products correlated with cancer incidence with a lag time of 15–25 years. Types of cancer which correlated strongly with animal product consumption, tended to correlate weakly with latitude; this occurred for 11 cancers for the entire set of countries. Regression results were somewhat different for the 87 high-quality country data set and the 157-country set. Single-country ecological studies have inversely correlated nearly all of these cancers with solar ultraviolet-B doses. These results can provide guidance for prevention of cancer.

  10. Settlement Relocation Modeling: Reacting to Merapi’s Eruption Incident

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pramitasari, A.; Buchori, I.

    2018-02-01

    Merapi eruption has made severe damages in Central Java Province. Klaten was one of the most affected area, specifically in Balerante Village. This research is made to comprehend GIS model on finding alternative locations for impacted settlement in hazardous zones of eruption. The principal objective of the research study is to identify and analyze physical condition, community characteristics, and local government regulation related to settlements relocation plan for impacted area of eruption. The output is location map which classified into four categories, i.e. not available, available with low accessibility, available with medium accessibility, and available with high accessibility.

  11. High rates of incident and prevalent anal human papillomavirus infection among young men who have sex with men.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glick, Sara Nelson; Feng, Qinghua; Popov, Viorica; Koutsky, Laura A; Golden, Matthew R

    2014-02-01

    There are few published estimates of anal human papillomavirus (HPV) infection rates among young men who have sex with men (YMSM). We estimated incidence and prevalence of type-specific anal HPV infection using clinician-collected anal swabs for HPV DNA testing obtained during a 1-year prospective study of 94 YMSM (mean age, 21 years) in Seattle. Seventy percent of YMSM had any HPV infection detected during the study, and HPV-16 and/or -18 were detected in 37%. The incidence rate for any new HPV infection was 38.5 per 1000 person-months and 15.3 per 1000 person-months for HPV-16/18; 19% had persistent HPV-16/18 infection. No participant tested positive for all 4 HPV types in the quadrivalent vaccine. The number of lifetime male receptive anal sex partners was significantly associated with HPV infection. The prevalence of HPV-16/18 was 6% among YMSM with a history of 1 receptive anal sex partner and 31% among YMSM with ≥ 2 partners. Although the high prevalence of HPV among YMSM highlights the desirability of vaccinating all boys as a strategy to avert the morbidity of HPV infection, most YMSM appear to remain naive to either HPV-16 or -18 well into their sexual lives and would benefit from HPV immunization.

  12. Modeling climate effects on hip fracture rate by the multivariate GARCH model in Montreal region, Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Modarres, Reza; Ouarda, Taha B. M. J.; Vanasse, Alain; Orzanco, Maria Gabriela; Gosselin, Pierre

    2014-07-01

    Changes in extreme meteorological variables and the demographic shift towards an older population have made it important to investigate the association of climate variables and hip fracture by advanced methods in order to determine the climate variables that most affect hip fracture incidence. The nonlinear autoregressive moving average with exogenous variable-generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARMA X-GARCH) and multivariate GARCH (MGARCH) time series approaches were applied to investigate the nonlinear association between hip fracture rate in female and male patients aged 40-74 and 75+ years and climate variables in the period of 1993-2004, in Montreal, Canada. The models describe 50-56 % of daily variation in hip fracture rate and identify snow depth, air temperature, day length and air pressure as the influencing variables on the time-varying mean and variance of the hip fracture rate. The conditional covariance between climate variables and hip fracture rate is increasing exponentially, showing that the effect of climate variables on hip fracture rate is most acute when rates are high and climate conditions are at their worst. In Montreal, climate variables, particularly snow depth and air temperature, appear to be important predictors of hip fracture incidence. The association of climate variables and hip fracture does not seem to change linearly with time, but increases exponentially under harsh climate conditions. The results of this study can be used to provide an adaptive climate-related public health program and ti guide allocation of services for avoiding hip fracture risk.

  13. A Novel Approach for Analysis of the Log-Linear Age-Period-Cohort Model: Application to Lung Cancer Incidence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tengiz Mdzinarishvili

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available A simple, computationally efficient procedure for analyses of the time period and birth cohort effects on the distribution of the age-specific incidence rates of cancers is proposed. Assuming that cohort effects for neighboring cohorts are almost equal and using the Log-Linear Age-Period-Cohort Model, this procedure allows one to evaluate temporal trends and birth cohort variations of any type of cancer without prior knowledge of the hazard function. This procedure was used to estimate the influence of time period and birth cohort effects on the distribution of the age-specific incidence rates of first primary, microscopically confirmed lung cancer (LC cases from the SEER9 database. It was shown that since 1975, the time period effect coefficients for men increase up to 1980 and then decrease until 2004. For women, these coefficients increase from 1975 up to 1990 and then remain nearly constant. The LC birth cohort effect coefficients for men and women increase from the cohort of 1890–94 until the cohort of 1925–29, then decrease until the cohort of 1950–54 and then remain almost unchanged. Overall, LC incidence rates, adjusted by period and cohort effects, increase up to the age of about 72–75, turn over, and then fall after the age of 75–78. The peak of the adjusted rates in men is around the age of 77–78, while in women, it is around the age of 72–73. Therefore, these results suggest that the age distribution of the incidence rates in men and women fall at old ages.

  14. Modelling the incidence of Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum malaria in Afghanistan 2006-2009.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alegana, Victor A; Wright, Jim A; Nahzat, Sami M; Butt, Waqar; Sediqi, Amad W; Habib, Naeem; Snow, Robert W; Atkinson, Peter M; Noor, Abdisalan M

    2014-01-01

    Identifying areas that support high malaria risks and where populations lack access to health care is central to reducing the burden in Afghanistan. This study investigated the incidence of Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum using routine data to help focus malaria interventions. To estimate incidence, the study modelled utilisation of the public health sector using fever treatment data from the 2012 national Malaria Indicator Survey. A probabilistic measure of attendance was applied to population density metrics to define the proportion of the population within catchment of a public health facility. Malaria data were used in a Bayesian spatio-temporal conditional-autoregressive model with ecological or environmental covariates, to examine the spatial and temporal variation of incidence. From the analysis of healthcare utilisation, over 80% of the population was within 2 hours' travel of the nearest public health facility, while 64.4% were within 30 minutes' travel. The mean incidence of P. vivax in 2009 was 5.4 (95% Crl 3.2-9.2) cases per 1000 population compared to 1.2 (95% Crl 0.4-2.9) cases per 1000 population for P. falciparum. P. vivax peaked in August while P. falciparum peaked in November. 32% of the estimated 30.5 million people lived in regions where annual incidence was at least 1 case per 1,000 population of P. vivax; 23.7% of the population lived in areas where annual P. falciparum case incidence was at least 1 per 1000. This study showed how routine data can be combined with household survey data to model malaria incidence. The incidence of both P. vivax and P. falciparum in Afghanistan remain low but the co-distribution of both parasites and the lag in their peak season provides challenges to malaria control in Afghanistan. Future improved case definition to determine levels of imported risks may be useful for the elimination ambitions in Afghanistan.

  15. Modelling the Incidence of Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum Malaria in Afghanistan 2006–2009

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alegana, Victor A.; Wright, Jim A.; Nahzat, Sami M.; Butt, Waqar; Sediqi, Amad W.; Habib, Naeem; Snow, Robert W.; Atkinson, Peter M.; Noor, Abdisalan M.

    2014-01-01

    Background Identifying areas that support high malaria risks and where populations lack access to health care is central to reducing the burden in Afghanistan. This study investigated the incidence of Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum using routine data to help focus malaria interventions. Methods To estimate incidence, the study modelled utilisation of the public health sector using fever treatment data from the 2012 national Malaria Indicator Survey. A probabilistic measure of attendance was applied to population density metrics to define the proportion of the population within catchment of a public health facility. Malaria data were used in a Bayesian spatio-temporal conditional-autoregressive model with ecological or environmental covariates, to examine the spatial and temporal variation of incidence. Findings From the analysis of healthcare utilisation, over 80% of the population was within 2 hours’ travel of the nearest public health facility, while 64.4% were within 30 minutes’ travel. The mean incidence of P. vivax in 2009 was 5.4 (95% Crl 3.2–9.2) cases per 1000 population compared to 1.2 (95% Crl 0.4–2.9) cases per 1000 population for P. falciparum. P. vivax peaked in August while P. falciparum peaked in November. 32% of the estimated 30.5 million people lived in regions where annual incidence was at least 1 case per 1,000 population of P. vivax; 23.7% of the population lived in areas where annual P. falciparum case incidence was at least 1 per 1000. Conclusion This study showed how routine data can be combined with household survey data to model malaria incidence. The incidence of both P. vivax and P. falciparum in Afghanistan remain low but the co-distribution of both parasites and the lag in their peak season provides challenges to malaria control in Afghanistan. Future improved case definition to determine levels of imported risks may be useful for the elimination ambitions in Afghanistan. PMID:25033452

  16. Annonaceae substitution rates: a codon model perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lars Willem Chatrou

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The Annonaceae includes cultivated species of economic interest and represents an important source of information for better understanding the evolution of tropical rainforests. In phylogenetic analyses of DNA sequence data that are used to address evolutionary questions, it is imperative to use appropriate statistical models. Annonaceae are cases in point: Two sister clades, the subfamilies Annonoideae and Malmeoideae, contain the majority of Annonaceae species diversity. The Annonoideae generally show a greater degree of sequence divergence compared to the Malmeoideae, resulting in stark differences in branch lengths in phylogenetic trees. Uncertainty in how to interpret and analyse these differences has led to inconsistent results when estimating the ages of clades in Annonaceae using molecular dating techniques. We ask whether these differences may be attributed to inappropriate modelling assumptions in the phylogenetic analyses. Specifically, we test for (clade-specific differences in rates of non-synonymous and synonymous substitutions. A high ratio of nonsynonymous to synonymous substitutions may lead to similarity of DNA sequences due to convergence instead of common ancestry, and as a result confound phylogenetic analyses. We use a dataset of three chloroplast genes (rbcL, matK, ndhF for 129 species representative of the family. We find that differences in branch lengths between major clades are not attributable to different rates of non-synonymous and synonymous substitutions. The differences in evolutionary rate between the major clades of Annonaceae pose a challenge for current molecular dating techniques that should be seen as a warning for the interpretation of such results in other organisms.

  17. Reduction in Fall Rate in Dementia Managed Care Through Video Incident Review: Pilot Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bayen, Eleonore; Jacquemot, Julien; Netscher, George; Agrawal, Pulkit; Tabb Noyce, Lynn; Bayen, Alexandre

    2017-10-17

    Falls of individuals with dementia are frequent, dangerous, and costly. Early detection and access to the history of a fall is crucial for efficient care and secondary prevention in cognitively impaired individuals. However, most falls remain unwitnessed events. Furthermore, understanding why and how a fall occurred is a challenge. Video capture and secure transmission of real-world falls thus stands as a promising assistive tool. The objective of this study was to analyze how continuous video monitoring and review of falls of individuals with dementia can support better quality of care. A pilot observational study (July-September 2016) was carried out in a Californian memory care facility. Falls were video-captured (24×7), thanks to 43 wall-mounted cameras (deployed in all common areas and in 10 out of 40 private bedrooms of consenting residents and families). Video review was provided to facility staff, thanks to a customized mobile device app. The outcome measures were the count of residents' falls happening in the video-covered areas, the acceptability of video recording, the analysis of video review, and video replay possibilities for care practice. Over 3 months, 16 falls were video-captured. A drop in fall rate was observed in the last month of the study. Acceptability was good. Video review enabled screening for the severity of falls and fall-related injuries. Video replay enabled identifying cognitive-behavioral deficiencies and environmental circumstances contributing to the fall. This allowed for secondary prevention in high-risk multi-faller individuals and for updated facility care policies regarding a safer living environment for all residents. Video monitoring offers high potential to support conventional care in memory care facilities. ©Eleonore Bayen, Julien Jacquemot, George Netscher, Pulkit Agrawal, Lynn Tabb Noyce, Alexandre Bayen. Originally published in the Journal of Medical Internet Research (http://www.jmir.org), 17.10.2017.

  18. Incidence rate of symptomatic painless thyroiditis presenting with thyrotoxicosis in Denmark as evaluated by consecutive thyroid scintigraphies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwartz, Frederik; Bergmann, Natasha; Zerahn, Bo; Faber, Jens

    2013-04-01

    Painless thyroiditis (PT) is a transient kind of thyrotoxicosis, with lack of uptake on a thyroid scintigraphy in a non-tender thyroid gland, elevated anti-TPO antibodies, no fever, no history of increased iodine intake, and a normal sedimentation rate. The prevalence of PT varies hugely in the literature. To establish the incidence rate of PT in Denmark as well as to describe the phenotype of PT in more detail. Tc-99m pertechnetate scintigraphies were performed over a period of 9.75 years on 6022 consecutive patients (2349 had a thyrotoxic episode), and were divided into high or normal (5528), reduced (300) or lack of uptake (194). Patient records were evaluated: 292 with reduced, and 186 with lack of uptake. As a control measure, 230 consecutive thyrotoxic patients were also analyzed. Based on scintigraphies, 12 patients had PT, 10 with lack of uptake and two with reduced, corresponding to an incidence rate of 0.49/100,000 person years. It was predicted, that only one patient among the newly diagnosed consecutive thyrotoxic cohort had PT. This patient was identified. The prevalence of PT among thyrotoxic patients was 0.51% as evaluated by scintigraphy, and 0.43% among the biochemically thyrotoxic patient cohort. Twenty-five percent had more than one thyrotoxic episode, 75% had at least one subsequent hypothyroid episode, and 33% developed permanent hypothyroidism. PT presenting with symptomatic thyrotoxicosis is an extremely rare disease in Denmark. Symptomatic PT presents most often with no uptake on a Tc-99m pertechnetate scintigraphy. Clinical follow-up is essential.

  19. Age-specific bone tumour incidence rates are governed by stem cell exhaustion influencing the supply and demand of progenitor cells.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richardson, Richard B

    2014-07-01

    Knudson's carcinogenic model, which simulates incidence rates for retinoblastoma, provides compelling evidence for a two-stage mutational process. However, for more complex cancers, existing multistage models are less convincing. To fill this gap, I hypothesize that neoplasms preferentially arise when stem cell exhaustion creates a short supply of progenitor cells at ages of high proliferative demand. To test this hypothesis, published datasets were employed to model the age distribution of osteochondroma, a benign lesion, and osteosarcoma, a malignant one. The supply of chondrogenic stem-like cells in femur growth plates of children and adolescents was evaluated and compared with the progenitor cell demand of longitudinal bone growth. Similarly, the supply of osteoprogenitor cells from birth to old age was compared with the demands of bone formation. Results show that progenitor cell demand-to-supply ratios are a good risk indicator, exhibiting similar trends to the unimodal and bimodal age distributions of osteochondroma and osteosarcoma, respectively. The hypothesis also helps explain Peto's paradox and the finding that taller individuals are more prone to cancers and have shorter lifespans. The hypothesis was tested, in the manner of Knudson, by its ability to convincingly explain and demonstrate, for the first time, a bone tumour's bimodal age-incidence curve. Crown Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Trends in primary total hip arthroplasty in Spain from 2001 to 2008: Evaluating changes in demographics, comorbidity, incidence rates, length of stay, costs and mortality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jimenez-Trujillo Isabel

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Hip arthroplasties is one of the most frequent surgical procedures in Spain and are conducted mainly in elderly subjects. We aim to analyze changes in incidence, co-morbidity profile, length of hospital stay (LOHS, costs and in-hospital mortality (IHM of patients undergoing primary total hip arthroplasty (THA over an 8-year study period in Spain. Methods We selected all surgical admissions in individuals aged ≥40 years who had received a primary THA (ICD-9-CM procedure code 81.51 between 2001 and 2008 from the National Hospital Discharge Database. Age- and sex-specific incidence rates, LOHS, costs and IHM were estimated for each year. Co-morbidity was assessed using the Charlson comorbidity index. Multivariate analysis of time trends was conducted using Poisson regression. Logistic regression models were conducted to analyze IHM. Results We identified a total of 161,791 discharges of patients having undergone THA from 2001 to 2008. Overall crude incidence had increased from 99 to 105 THA per 100.000 inhabitants from 2001 to 2008 (p 2 and in 2008, the prevalence of 1-2 or >2 had increased to 20.4% and 1.1% respectively (p Conclusions The current study provides clear and valid data indicating increased incidence of primary THA in Spain from 2001 to 2008 with concomitant reductions in LOHS, slight reduction IHM, but a significant increase in cost per patient. The health profile of the patient undergoing a THA seems to be worsening in Spain.

  1. The importance of regional models in assessing canine cancer incidences in Switzerland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boo, Gianluca; Leyk, Stefan; Brunsdon, Christopher; Graf, Ramona; Pospischil, Andreas; Fabrikant, Sara Irina

    2018-01-01

    Fitting canine cancer incidences through a conventional regression model assumes constant statistical relationships across the study area in estimating the model coefficients. However, it is often more realistic to consider that these relationships may vary over space. Such a condition, known as spatial non-stationarity, implies that the model coefficients need to be estimated locally. In these kinds of local models, the geographic scale, or spatial extent, employed for coefficient estimation may also have a pervasive influence. This is because important variations in the local model coefficients across geographic scales may impact the understanding of local relationships. In this study, we fitted canine cancer incidences across Swiss municipal units through multiple regional models. We computed diagnostic summaries across the different regional models, and contrasted them with the diagnostics of the conventional regression model, using value-by-alpha maps and scalograms. The results of this comparative assessment enabled us to identify variations in the goodness-of-fit and coefficient estimates. We detected spatially non-stationary relationships, in particular, for the variables related to biological risk factors. These variations in the model coefficients were more important at small geographic scales, making a case for the need to model canine cancer incidences locally in contrast to more conventional global approaches. However, we contend that prior to undertaking local modeling efforts, a deeper understanding of the effects of geographic scale is needed to better characterize and identify local model relationships.

  2. Are Cancer incidence Rates Among Present And Past Workers Of The research Centers Of The Atomic Energy Commission higher Than The Rates Among The General Population?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Litai, D.

    1999-01-01

    Cancer incidence rates among the workers of the AEC and its retirees have increased several fold in the last decade compared to the rates experienced in previous ones. This has brought about a wave of claims for compensation with negative repercussions in the media about the state of radiation safety in the nuclear research centers in the country. The Nuclear Research Center - Negev, being, generally closed to public and media visits, has taken the brunt of this criticism. Consequently, the question spelled out in the title has caused much concern and deserves to be discussed and explained. The purpose of this paper is to review what we know in this context and to show that the observed morbidity rates, worrying as they may be, are entirely natural, and, by and large, unrelated to the occupational exposures of the workers. It is well known that cancer incidence rates in the population rise steeply with age, especially over 50. As both research centers are approaching the age of 40, it is clear that a very large fraction of the workers and all retirees have passed this age and many are already in their sixties and even seventies. It is a well established fact that close to 40% of the population in this country (and many others as well) develop some type of cancer during their lifetime and close to a half of these succumb to it. As most of those cancers occur after the age of 50, this explains the increased rates alluded to above. Notably, numerous research centers around the globe have reached similar ages in the last decade and experience similar increases in morbidity, that have caused understandable concern and the initiation of epidemiological studies intended to identify the health effects of extended exposures to low doses, if any. Such studies have been carried out in several countries and followed, altogether, about 100,000 workers through 40 years. The studies showed no excess of cancer mortality among workers compared to the general population (adjusted

  3. Predictions of Quantum Molecular Dynamical Model between incident energy 50 and 1000 MeV/Nucleon

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kumar Sanjeev

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available In the present work, the Quantum Molecular Dynamical (QMD model is summarized as a useful tool for the incident energy range of 50 to 1000 MeV/nucleon in heavy-ion collisions. The model has reproduced the experimental results of various collaborations such as ALADIN, INDRA, PLASTIC BALL and FOPI upto a high level of accuracy for the phenomena like multifragmentation, collective flow as well as elliptical flow in the above prescribed energy range. The efforts are further in the direction to predict the symmetry energy in the wide incident energy range.

  4. Application of improved degree of grey incidence analysis model in fault diagnosis of steam generator

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhao Xinwen; Ren Xin

    2014-01-01

    In order to further reduce the misoperation after the faults occurring of nuclear-powered system in marine, the model based on weighted degree of grey incidence of optimized entropy and fault diagnosis system are proposed, and some simulation experiments about the typical faults of steam generator of nuclear-powered system in marine are conducted. And the results show that the diagnosis system based on improved degree of grey incidence model is more stable and its conclusion is right, and can satisfy diagnosis in real time, and higher faults subjection degrees resolving power can be achieved. (authors)

  5. The analysis of hyper-homocysteine incidence rate and multi-risk factors in 200 patients with cerebral stroke

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ding Xiudong; Yang Jianghui; Huo Aimei; Wang Yan; Chu Yanchuang; Dong Mei

    2009-01-01

    To investigate the hyperhomocysteine incidence rate and clinical significance in 200 patients with cerebral stroke, the serum homocysteine, fibrinogen, C-reaction protein, cholesterol, triglyceride, LDL-cholesterol and HDL-cholesterol levels in 200 patients with cerebral stroke and 100 normal healthy controls were detected. The results showed that both serum homocysteine and plasma FIB levels in patients with cerebral infarction and intracerebral hemorrhage were significantly higher than those in controls (P 0.05). The hyper-homocysteinemia is an independent risk factor for cerebral stoke, and hyperhomocysteine may lead to the increase of Fibrinogen level, which is one of the important reasons for the high blood viscosity in the cerebral infarction patients. (authors)

  6. Individual and Population Level Impact of Key HIV Risk Factors on HIV Incidence Rates in Durban, South Africa.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gita Ramjee

    Full Text Available We aimed to estimate the individual and joint impact of age, marital status and diagnosis with sexually transmitted infections (STIs on HIV acquisition among young women at a population level in Durban, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. A total of 3,978 HIV seronegative women were recruited for four biomedical intervention trials from 2002-2009. Point and interval estimates of partial population attributable risk (PAR were used to quantify the proportion of HIV seroconversions which can be prevented if a combination of risk factors is eliminated from a target population. More than 70% of the observed HIV acquisitions were collectively attributed to the three risk factors: younger age (<25 years old, unmarried and not cohabiting with a stable/regular partner and diagnosis with STIs. Addressing these risks requires targeted structural, behavioural, biomedical and cultural interventions in order to impact on unacceptably high HIV incidence rates among young women and the population as a whole.

  7. Incidence rates and management of urinary tract infections among children in Dutch general practice: results from a nation-wide registration study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Schellevis François G

    2006-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background We aimed to investigate incidence rates of urinary tract infections in Dutch general practice and their association with gender, season and urbanisation level, and to analyse prescription and referral in case of urinary tract infections. Method During one calendar year, 195 general practitioners in 104 practices in the Netherlands registered all their patient contacts. This study was performed by the Netherlands Institute for Health Services Research (NIVEL in 2001. Of 82,053 children aged 0 to 18 years, the following variables were collected: number of episodes per patient, number of contacts per episode, month of the year in which the diagnosis of urinary tract infection was made, age, gender, urbanisation level, drug prescription and referral. Results The overall incidence rate was 19 episodes per 1000 person years. The incidence rate in girls was 8 times as high as in boys. The incidence rate in smaller cities and rural areas was 2 times as high as in the three largest cities. Throughout the year, incidence rates varied with a decrease in summertime for children at the age of 0 to 12 years. Of the prescriptions, 66% were in accordance with current guidelines, but only 18% of the children who had an indication were actually referred. Conclusion This study shows that incidence rates of urinary tract infections are not only related to gender and season, but also to urbanisation. General practitioners in the Netherlands frequently do not follow the clinical guidelines for urinary tract infections, especially with respect to referral.

  8. Incidence rates and management of urinary tract infections among children in Dutch general practice: results from a nation-wide registration study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwok, Wing-Yee; de Kwaadsteniet, Marjolein CE; Harmsen, Mirjam; van Suijlekom-Smit, Lisette WA; Schellevis, François G; van der Wouden, Johannes C

    2006-01-01

    Background We aimed to investigate incidence rates of urinary tract infections in Dutch general practice and their association with gender, season and urbanisation level, and to analyse prescription and referral in case of urinary tract infections. Method During one calendar year, 195 general practitioners in 104 practices in the Netherlands registered all their patient contacts. This study was performed by the Netherlands Institute for Health Services Research (NIVEL) in 2001. Of 82,053 children aged 0 to 18 years, the following variables were collected: number of episodes per patient, number of contacts per episode, month of the year in which the diagnosis of urinary tract infection was made, age, gender, urbanisation level, drug prescription and referral. Results The overall incidence rate was 19 episodes per 1000 person years. The incidence rate in girls was 8 times as high as in boys. The incidence rate in smaller cities and rural areas was 2 times as high as in the three largest cities. Throughout the year, incidence rates varied with a decrease in summertime for children at the age of 0 to 12 years. Of the prescriptions, 66% were in accordance with current guidelines, but only 18% of the children who had an indication were actually referred. Conclusion This study shows that incidence rates of urinary tract infections are not only related to gender and season, but also to urbanisation. General practitioners in the Netherlands frequently do not follow the clinical guidelines for urinary tract infections, especially with respect to referral. PMID:16584577

  9. Comparison of Strategies and Incidence Thresholds for Vi Conjugate Vaccines Against Typhoid Fever: A Cost-effectiveness Modeling Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lo, Nathan C; Gupta, Ribhav; Stanaway, Jeffrey D; Garrett, Denise O; Bogoch, Isaac I; Luby, Stephen P; Andrews, Jason R

    2018-02-12

    Typhoid fever remains a major public health problem globally. While new Vi conjugate vaccines hold promise for averting disease, the optimal programmatic delivery remains unclear. We aimed to identify the strategies and associated epidemiologic conditions under which Vi conjugate vaccines would be cost-effective. We developed a dynamic, age-structured transmission and cost-effectiveness model that simulated multiple vaccination strategies with a typhoid Vi conjugate vaccine from a societal perspective. We simulated 10-year vaccination programs with (1) routine immunization of infants (aged typhoid fever and defined strategies as highly cost-effective by using the definition of a low-income country (defined as a country with a gross domestic product of $1045 per capita). We defined incidence as the true number of clinically symptomatic people in the population per year. Vi conjugate typhoid vaccines were highly cost-effective when administered by routine immunization activities through the EPI in settings with an annual incidence of >50 cases/100000 (95% uncertainty interval, 40-75 cases) and when administered through the EPI plus a catch-up campaign in settings with an annual incidence of >130 cases/100000 (95% uncertainty interval, 50-395 cases). The incidence threshold was sensitive to the typhoid-related case-fatality rate, carrier contribution to transmission, vaccine characteristics, and country-specific economic threshold for cost-effectiveness. Typhoid Vi conjugate vaccines would be highly cost-effective in low-income countries in settings of moderate typhoid incidence (50 cases/100000 annually). These results were sensitive to case-fatality rates, underscoring the need to consider factors contributing to typhoid mortality (eg, healthcare access and antimicrobial resistance) in the global vaccination strategy. © The Author(s) 2018. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America.

  10. Epidemiology of inflammatory bowel disease in Málaga: incidence rate and follow-up of a cohort diagnosed between 2007-2008.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cueto Torreblanca, Ignacio; Camargo Camero, Raquel; Andrade Bellido, Raúl; Romero Pérez, Eduardo; Alcaín Martínez, Guillermo

    2017-08-01

    The incidence of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) in Spain has been traditionally lower than in Northern European countries. Recent epidemiological studies have found that these differences are diminishing. This study estimates the incidence of IBD in Málaga (Spain), a city in Southern Spain and relates its results to those found in our neighboring countries. This was a prospective study designed to collect new cases diagnosed during the period from 2007-2008 and follow up these patients. Incidence is expressed as number of patients per 100,000 population per year. The population distribution found in the European Collaborative Study was used to standardize incidence rates. The gross incidence rate of IBD in Málaga is 9/105, the standardized incidence rate is 12.3/105 (9.7-15.6). These data are similar to those found in our surroundings, although a higher incidence rate for Crohn's disease (CD) as compared to ulcerative colitis (UC) was found. The clinical characteristics and outcomes of our patients do not differ significantly from those described for other populations.

  11. Aflatoxin contamination of red chili pepper from Bolivia and Peru, countries with high gallbladder cancer incidence rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asai, Takao; Tsuchiya, Yasuo; Okano, Kiyoshi; Piscoya, Alejandro; Nishi, Carlos Yoshito; Ikoma, Toshikazu; Oyama, Tomizo; Ikegami, Kikuo; Yamamoto, Masaharu

    2012-01-01

    Chilean red chili peppers contaminated with aflatoxins were reported in a previous study. If the development of gallbladder cancer (GBC) in Chile is associated with a high level of consumption of aflatoxin-contaminated red chili peppers, such peppers from other countries having a high GBC incidence rate may also be contaminated with aflatoxins. We aimed to determine whether this might be the case for red chili peppers from Bolivia and Peru. A total of 7 samples (3 from Bolivia, 4 from Peru) and 3 controls (2 from China, 1 from Japan) were evaluated. Aflatoxins were extracted with acetonitrile:water (9:1, v/v) and eluted through an immuno-affinity column. The concentrations of aflatoxins B1, B2, G1, and G2 were measured using high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC), and then the detected aflatoxins were identified using HPLC-mass spectrometry. In some but not all of the samples from Bolivia and Peru, aflatoxin B1 or aflatoxins B1 and B2 were detected. In particular, aflatoxin B1 or total aflatoxin concentrations in a Bolivian samples were above the maximum levels for aflatoxins in spices proposed by the European Commission. Red chili peppers from Bolivia and Peru consumed by populations having high GBC incidence rates would appear to be contaminated with aflatoxins. These data suggest the possibility that a high level of consumption of aflatoxin-contaminated red chili peppers is related to the development of GBC, and the association between the two should be confirmed by a case-control study.

  12. Incidence rate of ovarian cancer cases in Saudi Arabia: an observational descriptive epidemiological analysis of data from Saudi Cancer Registry 2001–2008

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alghamdi IG

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Ibrahim G Alghamdi,1,2 Issam I Hussain,1 Mohamed S Alghamdi,3 Mansour M Alghamdi,4 Ahlam A Dohal,4 Mohammed A El-Sheemy51School of Life Sciences, University of Lincoln, Brayford Pool, Lincoln, UK; 2Al-Baha University, Kingdom of Saudia Arabia; 3Ministry of Health, General Directorate of Health Affairs, Al-Baha, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia; 4King Fahad Specialist Hospital–Dammam, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia; 5Department of Research and Development, Lincoln Hospital, United Lincolnshire Hospitals, National Health Service Trust, Lincoln, UKPurpose: This study provides descriptive epidemiological data, such as the percentage of cases diagnosed, crude incidence rate (CIR, and age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR of ovarian cancer in Saudi Arabia from 2001–2008. Patients and methods: A retrospective descriptive epidemiological analysis of all ovarian cancer cases recorded in the Saudi Cancer Registry (SCR from January 2001–December 2008 was performed. The data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, analysis of variance tests, Poisson regression, and simple linear modeling.Results: A total of 991 ovarian cancer cases were recorded in the SCR from January 2001–December 2008. The region of Riyadh had the highest overall ASIR at 3.3 cases per 100,000 women, followed by the Jouf and Asir regions at 3.13 and 2.96 cases per 100,000 women. However, Hail and Jazan had the lowest rates at 1.4 and 0.6 cases per 100,000 women, respectively. Compared to Jazan, the incidence rate ratio for the number of ovarian cancer cases was significantly higher (P<0.001 in the Makkah region at 6.4 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 4.13–9.83, followed by Riyadh at 6.3 (95% CI: 4.10–9.82, and the eastern region of Saudi Arabia at 4.52 (95% CI: 2.93–6.98. The predicted annual CIR and ASIR for ovarian cancer in Saudi Arabia could be defined by the equations 0.9 + (0.07× years and 1.71 + (0.09× years, respectively.Conclusion: We observed a slight increase in the CIRs and

  13. First-Ever Stroke and Transient Ischemic Attack Incidence and 30-Day Case-Fatality Rates in a Population-Based Study in Argentina

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bahit, M Cecilia; Coppola, Mariano L; Riccio, Patricia M

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Epidemiological data about stroke are scarce in low- and middle-income Latin-American countries. We investigated annual incidence of first-ever stroke and transient ischemic attack (TIA) and 30-day case-fatality rates in a population-based setting in Tandil, Argentina....... METHODS: We prospectively identified all first-ever stroke and TIA cases from overlapping sources between January 5, 2013, and April 30, 2015, in Tandil, Argentina. We calculated crude and standardized incidence rates. We estimated 30-day case-fatality rates. RESULTS: We identified 334 first-ever strokes.......1% (95% CI, 14.2-36.6) for intracerebral hemorrhage, and 1.9% (95% CI, 0.4-5.8) for TIA. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides the first prospective population-based stroke and TIA incidence and case-fatality estimate in Argentina. First-ever stroke incidence was lower than that reported in previous Latin...

  14. Incidence of second cervical vertebral fractures far surpassed the rate predicted by the changing age distribution and growth among elderly persons in the United States (2005-2008).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zusman, Natalie L; Ching, Alexander C; Hart, Robert A; Yoo, Jung U

    2013-04-20

    Nationwide epidemiological cohort study. To characterize the incidence of second cervical vertebral (C2) fractures by age and geographical region among the elderly Medicare population and to elucidate if the rate changed in the years 2005 to 2008. Recent publications hypothesized that the rate of cervical vertebral fractures may be increasing. To date, there are no published nationwide reports describing the incidence and demographics of these injuries in the elderly US population. Incidence of C2 fracture in the years 2005 to 2008 was determined by querying PearlDiver Technologies, Inc. (Warsaw, IN), a commercially available database, using International Classification of Diseases code 805.02. Rates were calculated using the PearlDiver reported person-counts as the numerator and the Center for Medicare and Medicare Services midyear population file as the denominator, and reported per 10,000 person-years (10,000 p-y). The age and geographical distributions of fractures were examined. Variability in rates was analyzed using the mean, standard deviation, 95% confidence intervals, χ tests, and Pearson correlation coefficients. Although the elderly population increased by 6% between 2005 and 2008, the annual incidence of C2 fracture rose by 21%, from 1.58 to 1.91 per 10,000 p-y, trending upward in a straight-line function (r = 0.999, P = 0.0006). The incidence of fracture varied between age groups; however, an increase was observed in all age groups. Persons aged 65 to 74 years (the youngest age group) experienced the lowest incidence (0.63 in 2005 to 0.71 in 2008), and the rate of increase was the smallest among the age groups examined (13%). Persons aged 85 and older demonstrated the highest incidence (4.36-5.67) and the greatest increase (30%). From 2005 to 2008, the overall incidence of C2 fracture rose at a rate that was 3.5 times faster than the elderly population growth.

  15. Time trends in lifetime incidence rates of first-time diagnosed anorexia nervosa and bulimia nervosa across 16 years in a Danish nationwide psychiatric registry study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steinhausen, Hans-Christoph; Jensen, Christina Mohr

    2015-11-01

    To study recent time trends in the incidence of diagnosed anorexia nervosa (AN) and bulimia nervosa (BN) based on nationwide psychiatric register data. The Danish Psychiatric Central Research Registry was used to identify the incidence of diagnosed cases with AN and BN at the ages of 4-65 years from 1995 to 2010. Age- and sex-adjusted incidence rates per 100,000 person-years were calculated and were adjusted for time trends in the total number of people diagnosed in psychiatry. Time trends were analyzed using JoinPoint regression analysis. A total of N = 5,902 persons had a first-time incidence of AN, and a total of N = 5,113 had first-time incidence of BN. Incidence rates increased for AN from 6.4 to 12.6 per 100,000 person-years, and for BN from 6.3 to 7.2 per 100,000 person-years. In 2010, the male-to-female ratio was 1:8 for AN, and 1:20 for BN. There was an earlier onset for AN than for BN, and age at incidence decreased during the observation period for AN but not for BN. A sizeable part of the increasing incidence rates for AN and in particular, the younger AN age groups, could be attributed to an increase in the total number of N = 249,607 persons with first-time diagnoses in psychiatry. Incidence rates had increased slightly for AN, but were stable for BN across 16 years in this nationwide study and to a large extent were reflective of a general increase in diagnosed mental disorders. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  16. The Threshold of a Stochastic SIRS Model with Vertical Transmission and Saturated Incidence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chunjuan Zhu

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The threshold of a stochastic SIRS model with vertical transmission and saturated incidence is investigated. If the noise is small, it is shown that the threshold of the stochastic system determines the extinction and persistence of the epidemic. In addition, we find that if the noise is large, the epidemic still prevails. Finally, numerical simulations are given to illustrate the results.

  17. Implementation of the critical points model in a SFM-FDTD code working in oblique incidence

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hamidi, M; Belkhir, A; Lamrous, O [Laboratoire de Physique et Chimie Quantique, Universite Mouloud Mammeri, Tizi-Ouzou (Algeria); Baida, F I, E-mail: omarlamrous@mail.ummto.dz [Departement d' Optique P.M. Duffieux, Institut FEMTO-ST UMR 6174 CNRS Universite de Franche-Comte, 25030 Besancon Cedex (France)

    2011-06-22

    We describe the implementation of the critical points model in a finite-difference-time-domain code working in oblique incidence and dealing with dispersive media through the split field method. Some tests are presented to validate our code in addition to an application devoted to plasmon resonance of a gold nanoparticles grating.

  18. Modeling Equity for Alternative Water Rate Structures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffin, R.; Mjelde, J.

    2011-12-01

    The rising popularity of increasing block rates for urban water runs counter to mainstream economic recommendations, yet decision makers in rate design forums are attracted to the notion of higher prices for larger users. Among economists, it is widely appreciated that uniform rates have stronger efficiency properties than increasing block rates, especially when volumetric prices incorporate intrinsic water value. Yet, except for regions where water market purchases have forced urban authorities to include water value in water rates, economic arguments have weakly penetrated policy. In this presentation, recent evidence will be reviewed regarding long term trends in urban rate structures while observing economic principles pertaining to these choices. The main objective is to investigate the equity of increasing block rates as contrasted to uniform rates for a representative city. Using data from four Texas cities, household water demand is established as a function of marginal price, income, weather, number of residents, and property characteristics. Two alternative rate proposals are designed on the basis of recent experiences for both water and wastewater rates. After specifying a reasonable number (~200) of diverse households populating the city and parameterizing each household's characteristics, every household's consumption selections are simulated for twelve months. This procedure is repeated for both rate systems. Monthly water and wastewater bills are also computed for each household. Most importantly, while balancing the budget of the city utility we compute the effect of switching rate structures on the welfares of households of differing types. Some of the empirical findings are as follows. Under conditions of absent water scarcity, households of opposing characters such as low versus high income do not have strong preferences regarding rate structure selection. This changes as water scarcity rises and as water's opportunity costs are allowed to

  19. Incidence and hospitalization rates of varicella and herpes zoster before varicella vaccine introduction: a baseline assessment of the shifting epidemiology of varicella disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coplan, P; Black, S; Rojas, C; Shinefield, H; Ray, P; Lewis, E; Guess, H

    2001-07-01

    A 15-year postmarketing evaluation of the impact of varicella vaccine on the age distribution of varicella disease is being conducted at Kaiser Permanente Medical Care Program, Northern California (KPMCP). We report on a baseline assessment of the age-specific incidence and hospitalization rates of varicella and herpes zoster that was conducted before vaccine introduction. To assess the annual incidence of varicella, a telephone survey was conducted in a random sample of approximately 8,000 youths 5 to 19 years of age. The annual incidence of hospitalizations for varicella and herpes zoster in 1994 was assessed with the use of the computerized database at KPMCP. Varicella annual incidence was 10.3% in 5- to 9-year-olds, 1.9% in 10- to 14-year-olds and 1.2% in the 15- to 19-year age groups, respectively. Hospitalization rates among the entire KPMCP membership were 2.6 and 2.1 per 100,000 person years for varicella and zoster, respectively. Varicella incidence in the 15- to 19-year age group was higher among African-Americans than among Caucasians. Varicella rates were similar in the 5- to 9- and 10- to 14-year age groups to rates from other published studies conducted in 1972 to 1978, 1980 to 1988 and 1990 to 1992; however, the rate in 15- to 19-year-olds was 2 to 4 times higher than published rates in the same age category.

  20. Spatial Interaction Modeling to Identify Potentially Exposed Populations during RDD or IND Terrorism Incidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Regens, J.L.; Gunter, J.T.; Gupta, S.

    2009-01-01

    Homeland Security Presidential Directive no.5 (HSPD-5) Management of Domestic Incidents and Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Planning Guidance for Protection and Recovery Following Radiological Dispersal Device (RDD) and Improvised Nuclear Device (IND) Incidents underscore the need to delineate radiological emergency guidance applicable to remedial action and recovery following an RDD or IND incident. Rapid delineation of the population potentially exposed to ionizing radiation from fallout during terrorist incidents involving RDDs or low-yield nuclear devices (≤ 20 KT) is necessary for effective medical response and incident management as part of the recovery process. This paper illustrates the application of spatial interaction models to allocate population data for a representative U.S. urban area (≅1.3M people; 1,612.27 km 2 area) at a geographical scale relevant for accurately estimating risk given dose concentrations. Estimated total dose equivalents (TEDE) are calculated for isopleths moving away from the detonation point for typical release scenarios. Population is estimated within the TEDE zones using Euclidean distances between zip code polygon centroids generated in ArcGIS version 9.1 with distance decay determined by regression analysis to apportion origin-destination pairs to a population count and density matrix on a spatial basis for daytime and night-time release scenarios. (authors)

  1. The effect of changing from one to two views at incident (subsequent) screens in the NHS breast screening programme in England: impact on cancer detection and recall rates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blanks, R.G.; Bennett, R.L.; Patnick, J.; Cush, S.; Davison, C.; Moss, S.M.

    2005-01-01

    AIM: To assess the effect on cancer detection and recall rates of changing from one to two views for incident (subsequent) screens. METHODS: Controlled, comparative, observational study of programmes in NHS breast screening programme in England. Subjects: women aged 50-64 years were screened by the NHSBSP between 1 April 2001 and 31 March 2003. RESULTS: The effect of changing to two-view mammography was a 20% increase in overall incident screen cancer detection rate, with the biggest effect seen for small (<15 mm) invasive cancers. This increased detection rate was achieved with an 11% drop-in recall rate. CONCLUSION: The introduction of two-view mammography for incident screens has resulted in considerable improvements in overall NHS breast screening performance

  2. Pediatric inflammatory bowel disease: Increasing incidence, decreasing surgery rate, and compromised nutritional status: A prospective population-based cohort study 2007-2009

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jakobsen, Christian; Paerregaard, Anders; Munkholm, Pia

    2011-01-01

    Background: The aim was to evaluate the incidence, treatment, surgery rate, and anthropometry at diagnosis of children with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). Methods: Patients diagnosed between January 1, 2007 to December 31, 2009 in Eastern Denmark, Funen, and Aarhus were included from a backgro......Background: The aim was to evaluate the incidence, treatment, surgery rate, and anthropometry at diagnosis of children with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). Methods: Patients diagnosed between January 1, 2007 to December 31, 2009 in Eastern Denmark, Funen, and Aarhus were included from...... a background population of 668,056 children evaluation of incidence, treatment, and surgery rate, a subcohort from Eastern Denmark was extracted for comparison with a previously published population-based cohort from the same geographical area (1998–2006). Results: In all, 130 children...... in the rate of initiating immunomodulators (IM) within the first year (29.0/100 person-years versus 69.2, P nutritional status at diagnosis compared with the general...

  3. Hospitalization Rate and Population-Based Incidence of Hospitalization for Community-Acquired Pneumonia Among Children in Suzhou, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shan, Wei; Shi, Ting; Zhang, Xiyan; Xue, Jian; Wang, Yin; Yu, Jia; Huang, Yukai; Lin, Sheng; Zhao, Genming; Tian, Jianmei; Zhang, Tao

    2018-03-22

    Data on hospitalization burden of CAP in children is very limited in China. This study aimed to estimate the hospitalization rate and population-based incidence of hospitalization of CAP for children <15 years of age in Suzhou, China. This was a retrospective study of children hospitalized in Soochow University Affiliated Children's Hospital (SCH) from January 2010 to December 2014. Children who were residents of downtown Suzhou, 29 days to <15 years of age, with discharge diagnosis codes (ICD-10) including J09 to J18 and J20 to J22 were included. All-cause clinical community-acquired pneumonia (CCAP) and radiographically confirmed pneumonia (RCAP) were identified based on individual medical chart review. The hospitalization rate (HR) and population-based cumulative incidence of hospitalization (HI) were calculated. Among 184,734 children <15 years old admitted to SCH during the study period, 31,302 children were identified as having CCAP, and 24,218 (77.4%) children confirmed as having RCAP. CCAP hospitalization occurred year round and peaked during winter and early spring. The overall HRs for CCAP and RCAP were 189.0 (95%CI, 187.1-190.9) and 146.2 (95%CI, 144-148) per 1,000 hospitalizations respectively, and the HIs per 100,000 children annually were CCAP, 3,235.8 (95%CI, 3207.3-3264.2) and RCAP, 2,503.5 (95%CI, 2,478.3-2,528.6). For children <5 years old, the HR for CCAP was 248.4 (95%CI, 245.9-250.9) and RCAP 194.0 (95%CI, 191.4-196.3) per 1,000 hospitalizations; the HI for CCAP was 6,956.2 (95%CI: 6,892.8-7,019.6) and 5,431.9 (95%CI: 5,375.4-5,488.4) per 100,000 children for RCAP. The highest HR and HI were observed in children 29 days to <6 months old: HR for CCAP was 407.4 (95%CI: 400.9-413.9) per 1,000 hospitalizations and HI for CCAP was 11,203.7 (95%CI: 11,026.8-11,380.6) per 100,000 children annually. There is a considerable burden of CAP among children <15 years of age in Suzhou, particularly among children 29 days to <6 months of age and during winter

  4. A mathematical model of avian influenza with half-saturated incidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chong, Nyuk Sian; Tchuenche, Jean Michel; Smith, Robert J

    2014-03-01

    The widespread impact of avian influenza viruses not only poses risks to birds, but also to humans. The viruses spread from birds to humans and from human to human In addition, mutation in the primary strain will increase the infectiousness of avian influenza. We developed a mathematical model of avian influenza for both bird and human populations. The effect of half-saturated incidence on transmission dynamics of the disease is investigated. The half-saturation constants determine the levels at which birds and humans contract avian influenza. To prevent the spread of avian influenza, the associated half-saturation constants must be increased, especially the half-saturation constant H m for humans with mutant strain. The quantity H m plays an essential role in determining the basic reproduction number of this model. Furthermore, by decreasing the rate β m at which human-to-human mutant influenza is contracted, an outbreak can be controlled more effectively. To combat the outbreak, we propose both pharmaceutical (vaccination) and non-pharmaceutical (personal protection and isolation) control methods to reduce the transmission of avian influenza. Vaccination and personal protection will decrease β m, while isolation will increase H m. Numerical simulations demonstrate that all proposed control strategies will lead to disease eradication; however, if we only employ vaccination, it will require slightly longer to eradicate the disease than only applying non-pharmaceutical or a combination of pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical control methods. In conclusion, it is important to adopt a combination of control methods to fight an avian influenza outbreak.

  5. Trends in the incidence and mortality rates of malignant neoplasms in regions with radio ecological problems (Seslavtsi, Eleshnitsa, Yana) during the period 1995-1999

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chobanova, N.; Yagova, A.; Bajrakova, A.

    2001-01-01

    A retrospective study is carried out to examine incidence and mortality trends of some malignant neoplasms in regions at high radioecological risk (Seslavtsi, Eleshnitsa, Yana) during the period 1995-1999. The analysis is made according to sex and age groups. Information sources are official medical statistics data, original records and database of the Oncological Dispensary in Sofia. The analysis of incidence and mortality dynamics doesn't show an increase in the incidence/mortality rate of the selected radiation-related oncological diseases compared with the same indices for the country within that period. (author)

  6. Model Uncertainty and Exchange Rate Forecasting

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R.R.P. Kouwenberg (Roy); A. Markiewicz (Agnieszka); R. Verhoeks (Ralph); R.C.J. Zwinkels (Remco)

    2013-01-01

    textabstractWe propose a theoretical framework of exchange rate behavior where investors focus on a subset of economic fundamentals. We find that any adjustment in the set of predictors used by investors leads to changes in the relation between the exchange rate and fundamentals. We test the

  7. The Smo/Smo model: hedgehog-induced medulloblastoma with 90% incidence and leptomeningeal spread.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hatton, Beryl A; Villavicencio, Elisabeth H; Tsuchiya, Karen D; Pritchard, Joel I; Ditzler, Sally; Pullar, Barbara; Hansen, Stacey; Knoblaugh, Sue E; Lee, Donghoon; Eberhart, Charles G; Hallahan, Andrew R; Olson, James M

    2008-03-15

    Toward the goal of generating a mouse medulloblastoma model with increased tumor incidence, we developed a homozygous version of our ND2:SmoA1 model. Medulloblastomas form in 94% of homozygous Smo/Smo mice by 2 months of age. Tumor formation is, thus, predictable by age, before the symptomatic appearance of larger lesions. This high incidence and early onset of tumors is ideal for preclinical studies because mice can be enrolled before symptom onset and with a greater latency period before late-stage disease. Smo/Smo tumors also display leptomeningeal dissemination of neoplastic cells to the brain and spine, which occurs in many human cases. Despite an extended proliferation of granule neuron precursors (GNP) in the postnatal external granular layer (EGL), the internal granular layer formed normally in Smo/Smo mice and tumor formation occurred only in localized foci on the superficial surface of the molecular layer. Thus, tumor formation is not simply the result of over proliferation of GNPs within the EGL. Moreover, Smo/Smo medulloblastomas were transplantable and serially passaged in vivo, demonstrating the aggressiveness of tumor cells and their transformation beyond a hyperplastic state. The Smo/Smo model is the first mouse medulloblastoma model to show leptomeningeal spread. The adherence to human pathology, high incidence, and early onset of tumors thus make Smo/Smo mice an efficient model for preclinical studies.

  8. Modeling the incidence of citrus canker in leaves of the sweet orange variety ‘Pera’

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Danielle da Silva Pompeu

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Citrus canker, caused by the bacterium Xanthomonas citri subsp. citri, is one of the most important diseases of citrus. The use of resistant genotypes plays an important role in the management and control of the disease and is the most environmentally sustainable approach to disease control. Citrus canker incidence was recorded in an experiment on nine genotypes of the sweet orange variety ‘Pera’ grafted on four rootstocks. The experiment was started in 2010 and the incidence of citrus canker on the leaves was recorded on a quarterly basis. The incidence data from the experiment were analyzed using a zero-inflated Beta regression model (RBIZ, which is the appropriate method to describe data with large numbers of zeros. Based on the residual analysis, the data fit the model well. The discrete component of the explanatory variable, rootstock, was not significant as a factor affecting the onset of disease, in contrast with the continuous component, genotype, which was significant in explaining the incidence of citrus canker.

  9. Stroke incidence and 30-day and six-month case fatality rates in Udine, Italy: a population-based prospective study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janes, Francesco; Gigli, Gian Luigi; D'Anna, Lucio; Cancelli, Iacopo; Perelli, Anna; Canal, Giessica; Russo, Valentina; Zanchettin, Barbara; Valente, Mariarosaria

    2013-10-01

    Stroke incidence in high-income countries is reported to decrease, and new data on stroke incidence and outcome are needed to design stroke services and to ameliorate stroke management. This study is part of a two-year prospective community-based registry of all cerebrovascular events in the district of Udine (153,312 inhabitants), Friuli-Venezia Giulia region, northeast of Italy, between 1 April 2007 and 31 March 2009. Overlapping sources for case finding were used, combining hot and cold pursuit. We identified 784 stroke cases, 640 (81.6%) incident. The crude overall annual incidence rate per 100,000 residents was 256 (95% confidence interval 241-271) for all strokes and 209 (95% confidence interval 195-223) for first-ever strokes. Incidence rate for first-ever strokes was 181 (95% confidence interval 155-211) after adjustment to the 2007 Italian population and 104 (95% confidence interval 88-122) compared with the European standard population. Incidence rates for first-ever strokes was 215 (196-235) for women, 202 (183-223) for men. Crude annual incidence rates per 100,000 population were 167 (153-178) for ischemic stroke, 31 (26-37) for intracerebral hemorrhage, 8.1 (5.7-11.4) for sub-arachnoid hemorrhage, and 4.6 (2.8-7.1) for undetermined stroke. Overall case fatality rates for first-ever stroke were 20.6% at 28 days and 30.2% at 180 days. Our study shows incidence rates higher than previously reported in our region but not supporting the view of higher incidence rates in Northern than in Southern Italy. Results contribute to time-trends analysis on epidemiology, useful for dimensioning services in Italy and show the persistence of a gap between the outcome of stroke in Italy and that of the best performing European countries, urging to adopt better stroke management plans. © 2013 The Authors. International Journal of Stroke © 2013 World Stroke Organization.

  10. Prevalence and incidence rates of autism in the UK: time trend from 2004–2010 in children aged 8 years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Brent; Jick, Hershel; MacLaughlin, Dean

    2013-01-01

    Objectives To update UK studies begun in the early 1990s on the annual prevalence and incidence rates of autism in children; undertaken in response to a March 2012 press release, widely covered by the media, from the US Centre for Disease Control (CDC) reporting that the autism prevalence rate in 2008 in 8-year-old US children was 1 in 88, a 78% increase from a CDC estimate in 2004. This finding suggested a continuation of the dramatic increase in children diagnosed as autistic, which occurred in the 1990s. Design Population study using the UK General Practice Research Database (GPRD). Methods Annual autism prevalence rates were estimated for children aged 8 years in 2004–2010 by dividing the number diagnosed as autistic in each or any previous year by the number of children active in the study population that year. We also calculated annual incidence rates for children aged 2–8 years, by dividing the number newly diagnosed in 2004–2010 by the same denominators. Results Annual prevalence rates for each year were steady at approximately 3.8/1000 boys and 0.8/1000 girls. Annual incidence rates each year were also steady at about 1.2/1000 boys and 0.2/1000 girls. Conclusions Following a fivefold increase in the annual incidence rates of autism during the 1990s in the UK, the incidence and prevalence rates in 8-year-old children reached a plateau in the early 2000s and remained steady through 2010. Whether prevalence rates have increased from the early 2000s in the USA remains uncertain. PMID:24131525

  11. Investigation and modeling of the effects of light spectrum and incident angle on the growth of Chlorella vulgaris in photobioreactors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Souliès, Antoine; Legrand, Jack; Marec, Hélène; Pruvost, Jérémy; Castelain, Cathy; Burghelea, Teodor; Cornet, Jean-François

    2016-03-01

    An in-depth investigation of how various illumination conditions influence microalgal growth in photobioreactors (PBR) has been presented. Effects of both the light emission spectrum (white and red) and the light incident angle (0° and 60°) on the PBR surface were investigated. The experiments were conducted in two fully controlled lab-scale PBRs, a torus PBR and a thin flat-panel PBR for high cell density culture. The results obtained in the torus PBR were used to build the kinetic growth model of Chlorella vulgaris taken as a model species. The PBR model was then applied to the thin flat-panel PBR, which was run with various illumination conditions. Its detailed representation of local rate of photon absorption under various conditions (spectral calculation of light attenuation, incident angle influence) enabled the model to take into account all the tested conditions with no further adjustment. This allowed a detailed investigation of the coupling between radiation field and photosynthetic growth. Effects of all the radiation conditions together with pigment acclimation, which was found to be relevant, were investigated in depth. © 2016 American Institute of Chemical Engineers Biotechnol. Prog., 32:247-261, 2016. © 2016 American Institute of Chemical Engineers.

  12. Determinants of medication incident reporting, recovery, and learning in community pharmacies: a conceptual model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boyle, Todd A; Mahaffey, Thomas; Mackinnon, Neil J; Deal, Heidi; Hallstrom, Lars K; Morgan, Holly

    2011-03-01

    Evidence suggests that the underreporting of medication errors and near misses, collectively referred to as medication incidents (MIs), in the community pharmacy setting, is high. Despite the obvious negative implications, MIs present opportunities for pharmacy staff and regulatory authorities to learn from these mistakes and take steps to reduce the likelihood that they reoccur. However, these activities can only take place if such errors are reported and openly discussed. This research proposes a model of factors influencing the reporting, service recovery, and organizational learning resulting from MIs within Canadian community pharmacies. The conceptual model is based on a synthesis of the literature and findings from a pilot study conducted among pharmacy management, pharmacists, and pharmacy technicians from 13 community pharmacies in Nova Scotia, Canada. The purpose of the pilot study was to identify various actions that should be taken to improve MI reporting and included staff perceptions of the strengths and weaknesses of their current MI-reporting process, desired characteristics of a new process, and broader external and internal activities that would likely improve reporting. Out of the 109 surveys sent, 72 usable surveys were returned (66.1% response rate). Multivariate analysis of variance found no significant differences among staff type in their perceptions of the current or new desired system but were found for broader initiatives to improve MI reporting. These findings were used for a proposed structural equation model (SEM). The SEM proposes that individual-perceived self-efficacy, MI process capability, MI process support, organizational culture, management support, and regulatory authority all influence the completeness of MI reporting, which, in turn, influences MI service recovery and learning. This model may eventually be used to enable pharmacy managers to make better decisions. By identifying risk factors that contribute to low MI

  13. Further Results on Dynamic Additive Hazard Rate Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhengcheng Zhang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In the past, the proportional and additive hazard rate models have been investigated in the works. Nanda and Das (2011 introduced and studied the dynamic proportional (reversed hazard rate model. In this paper we study the dynamic additive hazard rate model, and investigate its aging properties for different aging classes. The closure of the model under some stochastic orders has also been investigated. Some examples are also given to illustrate different aging properties and stochastic comparisons of the model.

  14. Predictors of incident heart failure in patients after an acute coronary syndrome: The LIPID heart failure risk-prediction model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Driscoll, Andrea; Barnes, Elizabeth H; Blankenberg, Stefan; Colquhoun, David M; Hunt, David; Nestel, Paul J; Stewart, Ralph A; West, Malcolm J; White, Harvey D; Simes, John; Tonkin, Andrew

    2017-12-01

    Coronary heart disease is a major cause of heart failure. Availability of risk-prediction models that include both clinical parameters and biomarkers is limited. We aimed to develop such a model for prediction of incident heart failure. A multivariable risk-factor model was developed for prediction of first occurrence of heart failure death or hospitalization. A simplified risk score was derived that enabled subjects to be grouped into categories of 5-year risk varying from 20%. Among 7101 patients from the LIPID study (84% male), with median age 61years (interquartile range 55-67years), 558 (8%) died or were hospitalized because of heart failure. Older age, history of claudication or diabetes mellitus, body mass index>30kg/m 2 , LDL-cholesterol >2.5mmol/L, heart rate>70 beats/min, white blood cell count, and the nature of the qualifying acute coronary syndrome (myocardial infarction or unstable angina) were associated with an increase in heart failure events. Coronary revascularization was associated with a lower event rate. Incident heart failure increased with higher concentrations of B-type natriuretic peptide >50ng/L, cystatin C>0.93nmol/L, D-dimer >273nmol/L, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein >4.8nmol/L, and sensitive troponin I>0.018μg/L. Addition of biomarkers to the clinical risk model improved the model's C statistic from 0.73 to 0.77. The net reclassification improvement incorporating biomarkers into the clinical model using categories of 5-year risk was 23%. Adding a multibiomarker panel to conventional parameters markedly improved discrimination and risk classification for future heart failure events. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Global Stability of an Eco-Epidemiological Model with Time Delay and Saturation Incidence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shuxue Mao

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available We investigate a delayed eco-epidemiological model with disease in predator and saturation incidence. First, by comparison arguments, the permanence of the model is discussed. Then, we study the local stability of each equilibrium of the model by analyzing the corresponding characteristic equations and find that Hopf bifurcation occurs when the delay τ passes through a sequence of critical values. Next, by means of an iteration technique, sufficient conditions are derived for the global stability of the disease-free planar equilibrium and the positive equilibrium. Numerical examples are carried out to illustrate the analytical results.

  16. On a Corporate Bond Pricing Model with Credit Rating Migration Risksand Stochastic Interest Rate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jin Liang

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we study a corporate bond-pricing model with credit rating migration and astochastic interest rate. The volatility of bond price in the model strongly depends on potential creditrating migration and stochastic change of the interest rate. This new model improves the previousexisting models in which the interest rate is considered to be a constant. The existence, uniquenessand regularity of the solution for the model are established. Moreover, some properties includingthe smoothness of the free boundary are obtained. Furthermore, some numerical computations arepresented to illustrate the theoretical results.

  17. Latency-Rate servers & Dataflow models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wiggers, M.H.; Bekooij, Marco; Bekooij, Marco Jan Gerrit

    2006-01-01

    In the signal processing domain, dataflow graphs [2] [10] and their associated analysis techniques are a well-accepted modeling paradigm. The vertices of a dataflow graph represent functionality and are called actors, while the edges model which actors communicate with each other. Traditionally,

  18. MONETARY MODELS AND EXCHANGE RATE DETERMINATION ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Power Party [PPP] based on the law of one price asserts that the change in the exchange rate between .... exchange in international economic transactions has made it vitally evident that the management of ... One lesson from this episode is to ...

  19. Modelling malaria incidence with environmental dependency in a locality of Sudanese savannah area, Mali.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaudart, Jean; Touré, Ousmane; Dessay, Nadine; Dicko, A Lassane; Ranque, Stéphane; Forest, Loic; Demongeot, Jacques; Doumbo, Ogobara K

    2009-04-10

    The risk of Plasmodium falciparum infection is variable over space and time and this variability is related to environmental variability. Environmental factors affect the biological cycle of both vector and parasite. Despite this strong relationship, environmental effects have rarely been included in malaria transmission models.Remote sensing data on environment were incorporated into a temporal model of the transmission, to forecast the evolution of malaria epidemiology, in a locality of Sudanese savannah area. A dynamic cohort was constituted in June 1996 and followed up until June 2001 in the locality of Bancoumana, Mali. The 15-day composite vegetation index (NDVI), issued from satellite imagery series (NOAA) from July 1981 to December 2006, was used as remote sensing data.The statistical relationship between NDVI and incidence of P. falciparum infection was assessed by ARIMA analysis. ROC analysis provided an NDVI value for the prediction of an increase in incidence of parasitaemia.Malaria transmission was modelled using an SIRS-type model, adapted to Bancoumana's data. Environmental factors influenced vector mortality and aggressiveness, as well as length of the gonotrophic cycle. NDVI observations from 1981 to 2001 were used for the simulation of the extrinsic variable of a hidden Markov chain model. Observations from 2002 to 2006 served as external validation. The seasonal pattern of P. falciparum incidence was significantly explained by NDVI, with a delay of 15 days (p = 0.001). An NDVI threshold of 0.361 (p = 0.007) provided a Diagnostic Odd Ratio (DOR) of 2.64 (CI95% [1.26;5.52]).The deterministic transmission model, with stochastic environmental factor, predicted an endemo-epidemic pattern of malaria infection. The incidences of parasitaemia were adequately modelled, using the observed NDVI as well as the NDVI simulations. Transmission pattern have been modelled and observed values were adequately predicted. The error parameters have shown the smallest

  20. Modelling malaria incidence with environmental dependency in a locality of Sudanese savannah area, Mali

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Demongeot Jacques

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The risk of Plasmodium falciparum infection is variable over space and time and this variability is related to environmental variability. Environmental factors affect the biological cycle of both vector and parasite. Despite this strong relationship, environmental effects have rarely been included in malaria transmission models. Remote sensing data on environment were incorporated into a temporal model of the transmission, to forecast the evolution of malaria epidemiology, in a locality of Sudanese savannah area. Methods A dynamic cohort was constituted in June 1996 and followed up until June 2001 in the locality of Bancoumana, Mali. The 15-day composite vegetation index (NDVI, issued from satellite imagery series (NOAA from July 1981 to December 2006, was used as remote sensing data. The statistical relationship between NDVI and incidence of P. falciparum infection was assessed by ARIMA analysis. ROC analysis provided an NDVI value for the prediction of an increase in incidence of parasitaemia. Malaria transmission was modelled using an SIRS-type model, adapted to Bancoumana's data. Environmental factors influenced vector mortality and aggressiveness, as well as length of the gonotrophic cycle. NDVI observations from 1981 to 2001 were used for the simulation of the extrinsic variable of a hidden Markov chain model. Observations from 2002 to 2006 served as external validation. Results The seasonal pattern of P. falciparum incidence was significantly explained by NDVI, with a delay of 15 days (p = 0.001. An NDVI threshold of 0.361 (p = 0.007 provided a Diagnostic Odd Ratio (DOR of 2.64 (CI95% [1.26;5.52]. The deterministic transmission model, with stochastic environmental factor, predicted an endemo-epidemic pattern of malaria infection. The incidences of parasitaemia were adequately modelled, using the observed NDVI as well as the NDVI simulations. Transmission pattern have been modelled and observed values were adequately

  1. Modelling malaria incidence with environmental dependency in a locality of Sudanese savannah area, Mali

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaudart, Jean; Touré, Ousmane; Dessay, Nadine; Dicko, A lassane; Ranque, Stéphane; Forest, Loic; Demongeot, Jacques; Doumbo, Ogobara K

    2009-01-01

    Background The risk of Plasmodium falciparum infection is variable over space and time and this variability is related to environmental variability. Environmental factors affect the biological cycle of both vector and parasite. Despite this strong relationship, environmental effects have rarely been included in malaria transmission models. Remote sensing data on environment were incorporated into a temporal model of the transmission, to forecast the evolution of malaria epidemiology, in a locality of Sudanese savannah area. Methods A dynamic cohort was constituted in June 1996 and followed up until June 2001 in the locality of Bancoumana, Mali. The 15-day composite vegetation index (NDVI), issued from satellite imagery series (NOAA) from July 1981 to December 2006, was used as remote sensing data. The statistical relationship between NDVI and incidence of P. falciparum infection was assessed by ARIMA analysis. ROC analysis provided an NDVI value for the prediction of an increase in incidence of parasitaemia. Malaria transmission was modelled using an SIRS-type model, adapted to Bancoumana's data. Environmental factors influenced vector mortality and aggressiveness, as well as length of the gonotrophic cycle. NDVI observations from 1981 to 2001 were used for the simulation of the extrinsic variable of a hidden Markov chain model. Observations from 2002 to 2006 served as external validation. Results The seasonal pattern of P. falciparum incidence was significantly explained by NDVI, with a delay of 15 days (p = 0.001). An NDVI threshold of 0.361 (p = 0.007) provided a Diagnostic Odd Ratio (DOR) of 2.64 (CI95% [1.26;5.52]). The deterministic transmission model, with stochastic environmental factor, predicted an endemo-epidemic pattern of malaria infection. The incidences of parasitaemia were adequately modelled, using the observed NDVI as well as the NDVI simulations. Transmission pattern have been modelled and observed values were adequately predicted. The error

  2. A Bayesian hierarchical model with novel prior specifications for estimating HIV testing rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    An, Qian; Kang, Jian; Song, Ruiguang; Hall, H Irene

    2016-04-30

    Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection is a severe infectious disease actively spreading globally, and acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) is an advanced stage of HIV infection. The HIV testing rate, that is, the probability that an AIDS-free HIV infected person seeks a test for HIV during a particular time interval, given no previous positive test has been obtained prior to the start of the time, is an important parameter for public health. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian hierarchical model with two levels of hierarchy to estimate the HIV testing rate using annual AIDS and AIDS-free HIV diagnoses data. At level one, we model the latent number of HIV infections for each year using a Poisson distribution with the intensity parameter representing the HIV incidence rate. At level two, the annual numbers of AIDS and AIDS-free HIV diagnosed cases and all undiagnosed cases stratified by the HIV infections at different years are modeled using a multinomial distribution with parameters including the HIV testing rate. We propose a new class of priors for the HIV incidence rate and HIV testing rate taking into account the temporal dependence of these parameters to improve the estimation accuracy. We develop an efficient posterior computation algorithm based on the adaptive rejection metropolis sampling technique. We demonstrate our model using simulation studies and the analysis of the national HIV surveillance data in the USA. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  3. An evaluation of rabies vaccination rates among canines and felines involved in biting incidents within the Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph Public Health Department.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bottoms, K; Trotz-Williams, L; Hutchison, S; MacLeod, J; Dixon, J; Berke, O; Poljak, Z

    2014-11-01

    The objectives of this study were to determine the rate of animal bite incidents occurring in the human population of a local health department, and to determine the proportion of these canines and felines that were not up to date on their rabies vaccination at the time the incident occurred. Data were obtained from animal bite incidents reported to Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph Public Health during 2010 and 2011. Descriptive statistics of 718 eligible reports revealed the average rate of animal biting was 1.55 bites per 1000 residents per year. Approximately 54% of these animals were vaccinated against rabies, 32% were not up to date with their rabies vaccination, and the remaining 14.5% were of unknown status. The unit of analysis was the municipality, and the four outcomes of interest were: (i) number of animal bite incidents per 1000 residents, (ii) number of dog bite incidents per 1000 residents, (iii) proportion of animals involved in bite incidents that were not up to date with their rabies vaccination, and (iv) proportion of dogs that were not up to date. Associations between the outcomes and selected demographic variables were investigated using regression analysis. The number of veterinary clinics per 10,000 residents, and whether the municipality was urban or rural were identified as significant predictors for the number of animal bites per 1000 residents, and the number of dog bites. There were no significant predictors for the proportion of unvaccinated animals or dogs. Spatial clustering and the location of spatial clusters were assessed using the empirical Bayes index and spatial scan test. This analysis identified five municipalities within the health department that have a high rate of biting incidents and a high proportion of animals that were not up to date on their rabies vaccination. Such municipalities are ideal for targeted educational campaigns regarding the importance of vaccination in pets. © 2014 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

  4. A Range-Based Multivariate Model for Exchange Rate Volatility

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    B. Tims (Ben); R.J. Mahieu (Ronald)

    2003-01-01

    textabstractIn this paper we present a parsimonious multivariate model for exchange rate volatilities based on logarithmic high-low ranges of daily exchange rates. The multivariate stochastic volatility model divides the log range of each exchange rate into two independent latent factors, which are

  5. Application of electro geometric model for analysis of overhead power lines and substation in lightning incidence, v. 16(62)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kotevski, Darko

    2008-01-01

    This paper is a resume of the master thesis made within my master studies at the Department for transmission and distribution systems at FEIT-Skopje. New methodology is presented for estimation of the rates of lightning strikes on power lines and substations with Monte Carlo simulation. Modeling is based on well known electro geometric model which states that protection zones of lightning protection devices are dependant with amplitude of the lighting current. Therefore, for a known configuration it is possible with application of simple numerical methods to evaluate efficiency of the protection devices. Data gained from the simulations can be used to design such devices, to correct existing lightning protection systems or to make analysis for improving reliability of power system elements in lightning incidence. (Author)

  6. Application of electro geometric model for analysis of overhead power lines and substation in lightning incidence, v. 16(63)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kotevski, Darko

    2008-01-01

    This paper is a resume of the master thesis made within my master studies at the Department for transmission and distribution systems at FEIT-Skopje. New methodology is presented for estimation of the rates of lightning strikes on power lines and substations with Monte Carlo simulation. Modeling is based on well known electro geometric model which states that protection zones of lightning protection devices are dependant with amplitude of the lighting current. Therefore, for a known configuration it is possible with application of simple numerical methods to evaluate efficiency of the protection devices. Data gained from the simulations can be used to design such devices, to correct existing lightning protection systems or to make analysis for improving reliability of power system elements in lightning incidence. (Author

  7. Bifurcation analysis of a discrete SIS model with bilinear incidence depending on new infection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cao, Hui; Zhou, Yicang; Ma, Zhien

    2013-01-01

    A discrete SIS epidemic model with the bilinear incidence depending on the new infection is formulated and studied. The condition for the global stability of the disease free equilibrium is obtained. The existence of the endemic equilibrium and its stability are investigated. More attention is paid to the existence of the saddle-node bifurcation, the flip bifurcation, and the Hopf bifurcation. Sufficient conditions for those bifurcations have been obtained. Numerical simulations are conducted to demonstrate our theoretical results and the complexity of the model.

  8. Incidence rate of non-Hodgkin’s lymphomas among males in Saudi Arabia: an observational descriptive epidemiological analysis of data from the Saudi Cancer Registry, 2001–2008

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alghamdi IG

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Ibrahim G Alghamdi,1,2 Issam I Hussain,1 Mohamed S Alghamdi,3 Ahlam A Dohal,4 Mansour M Alghamdi,4 Mohammed A El-Sheemy5 1School of Life Sciences, University of Lincoln, Lincoln, UK; 2Albaha University, Al Baha city, Saudi Arabia; 3General Directorate of Health Affairs, Ministry of Health, Al Baha, 4King Fahad Specialist Hospital, Dammam, Saudi Arabia; 5Research and Development, Lincoln Hospital, United Lincolnshire Hospitals NHSTrust, Lincoln, UK Background: This study describes epidemiological data of non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma (NHL diagnosed from 2001 to 2008 among Saudi men. Materials and methods: Retrospective data from all NHL cancer cases among Saudi men recorded in the Saudi Cancer Registry (SCR between January 2001 and December 2008 were used. Descriptive statistics, analysis of variance, Poisson regression, and simple linear regression were also used. Results: In total, 2,555 new cases of NHL were recorded between January 2001 and December 2008. The region of Riyadh, Saudi Arabia had the highest overall age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR at 7.8, followed by the Eastern region at 6.8, and Makkah at 6.1 per 100,000 men; however, Jazan, Hail, and Baha had the lowest average ASIRs at 2.5, 3.7, and 3.9 per 100,000 men, respectively. The incidence-rate ratio for the number of NHL cases was significantly higher in Riyadh (4.68, 95% confidence interval [CI] 4.11–5.32, followed by Makkah (4.47, 95% CI 3.94–5.07, and the Eastern region of Saudi Arabia (3.27, 95% CI 2.90–3.69 than that in the reference region of Jazan. Jouf had the highest changes in the ASIRs of NHL among Saudi men from 2001 and 2008 (5.0 per 100,000 men. Conclusion: A significant increase in the crude incidence rate and ASIR for NHL in Saudi Arabia between 2001 and 2008 was found. Riyadh, the Eastern region, and Makkah had the highest overall ASIR in Saudi Arabia. Jazan, Hail, and Baha had the lowest rates. Additionally, Riyadh, Makkah, and the Eastern region had the

  9. Breast cancer risk in atomic bomb survivors from multi-model inference with incidence data 1958-1998

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaiser, J.C.; Jacob, P.; Meckbach, R.; Cullings, H.M.

    2012-01-01

    Breast cancer risk from radiation exposure has been analyzed in the cohort of Japanese a-bomb survivors using empirical models and mechanistic two-step clonal expansion (TSCE) models with incidence data from 1958 to 1998. TSCE models rely on a phenomenological representation of cell transition processes on the path to cancer. They describe the data as good as empirical models and this fact has been exploited for risk assessment. Adequate models of both types have been selected with a statistical protocol based on parsimonious parameter deployment and their risk estimates have been combined using multi-model inference techniques. TSCE models relate the radiation risk to cell processes which are controlled by age-increasing rates of initiating mutations and by changes in hormone levels due to menopause. For exposure at young age, they predict an enhanced excess relative risk (ERR) whereas the preferred empirical model shows no dependence on age at exposure. At attained age 70, the multi-model median of the ERR at 1 Gy decreases moderately from 1.2 Gy"-"1 (90% CI 0.72; 2.1) for exposure at age 25 to a 30% lower value for exposure at age 55. For cohort strata with few cases, where model predictions diverge, uncertainty intervals from multi-model inference are enhanced by up to a factor of 1.6 compared to the preferred empirical model. Multi-model inference provides a joint risk estimate from several plausible models rather than relying on a single model of choice. It produces more reliable point estimates and improves the characterization of uncertainties. The method is recommended for risk assessment in practical radiation protection. (orig.)

  10. Breast cancer risk in atomic bomb survivors from multi-model inference with incidence data 1958-1998

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kaiser, J.C.; Jacob, P.; Meckbach, R. [Institute of Radiation Protection, Helmholtz-Zentrum Muenchen, German Research Centre for Environmental Health, Neuherberg (Germany); Cullings, H.M. [Radiation Effects Research Foundation, Department of Statistics, Hiroshima (Japan)

    2012-03-15

    Breast cancer risk from radiation exposure has been analyzed in the cohort of Japanese a-bomb survivors using empirical models and mechanistic two-step clonal expansion (TSCE) models with incidence data from 1958 to 1998. TSCE models rely on a phenomenological representation of cell transition processes on the path to cancer. They describe the data as good as empirical models and this fact has been exploited for risk assessment. Adequate models of both types have been selected with a statistical protocol based on parsimonious parameter deployment and their risk estimates have been combined using multi-model inference techniques. TSCE models relate the radiation risk to cell processes which are controlled by age-increasing rates of initiating mutations and by changes in hormone levels due to menopause. For exposure at young age, they predict an enhanced excess relative risk (ERR) whereas the preferred empirical model shows no dependence on age at exposure. At attained age 70, the multi-model median of the ERR at 1 Gy decreases moderately from 1.2 Gy{sup -1} (90% CI 0.72; 2.1) for exposure at age 25 to a 30% lower value for exposure at age 55. For cohort strata with few cases, where model predictions diverge, uncertainty intervals from multi-model inference are enhanced by up to a factor of 1.6 compared to the preferred empirical model. Multi-model inference provides a joint risk estimate from several plausible models rather than relying on a single model of choice. It produces more reliable point estimates and improves the characterization of uncertainties. The method is recommended for risk assessment in practical radiation protection. (orig.)

  11. Universal Rate Model Selector: A Method to Quickly Find the Best-Fit Kinetic Rate Model for an Experimental Rate Profile

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-08-01

    k2 – k1) 3.3 Universal Kinetic Rate Platform Development Kinetic rate models range from pure chemical reactions to mass transfer...14 8. The rate model that best fits the experimental data is a first-order or homogeneous catalytic reaction ...Avrami (7), and intraparticle diffusion (6) rate equations to name a few. A single fitting algorithm (kinetic rate model ) for a reaction does not

  12. Age/race differences in HER2 testing and in incidence rates for breast cancer triple subtypes: a population-based study and first report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lund, Mary Jo; Butler, Ebonee N; Hair, Brionna Y; Ward, Kevin C; Andrews, Judy H; Oprea-Ilies, Gabriella; Bayakly, A Rana; O'Regan, Ruth M; Vertino, Paula M; Eley, J William

    2010-06-01

    Although US year 2000 guidelines recommended characterizing breast cancers by human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2), national cancer registries do not collect HER2, rendering a population-based understanding of HER2 and clinical "triple subtypes" (estrogen receptor [ER] / progesterone receptor [PR] / HER2) largely unknown. We document the population-based prevalence of HER2 testing / status, triple subtypes and present the first report of subtype incidence rates. Medical records were searched for HER2 on 1842 metropolitan Atlanta females diagnosed with breast cancer during 2003-2004. HER2 testing/status and triple subtypes were analyzed by age, race/ethnicity, tumor factors, socioeconomic status, and treatment. Age-adjusted incidence rates were calculated. Over 90% of cases received HER2 testing: 12.6% were positive, 71.7% negative, and 15.7% unknown. HER2 testing compliance was significantly better for women who were younger, of Caucasian or African-American descent, or diagnosed with early stage disease. Incidence rates (per 100,000) were 21.1 for HER2+ tumors and 27.8 for triple-negative tumors, the latter differing by race (36.3 and 19.4 for black and white women, respectively). HER2 recommendations are not uniformly adhered to. Incidence rates for breast cancer triple subtypes differ by age/race. As biologic knowledge is translated into the clinical setting eg, HER2 as a biomarker, it will be incumbent upon national cancer registries to report this information. Incidence rates cautiously extrapolate to an annual burden of 3000 and 17,000 HER2+ tumors for black and white women, respectively, and triple-negative tumors among 5000 and 16,000 respectively. Testing, rate, and burden variations warrant population-based in-depth exploration and clinical translation. (c) 2010 American Cancer Society.

  13. A spatiotemporal mixed model to assess the influence of environmental and socioeconomic factors on the incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lianfa Li

    2018-02-01

    the multivariate models. Efron’s cross-validation R2 of 0.83 was acquired using our approach. The spatial effect accounted for 23% of the R2, and notable patterns of the posterior spatial effect were captured. Conclusions We developed a geo-additive mixed spatiotemporal model to assess the influence of meteorological, environmental and socioeconomic factors on HFMD incidence and explored spatiotemporal patterns of such incidence. Our approach achieved a competitive performance in cross-validation and revealed strong spatial patterns for the HFMD incidence rate, illustrating important implications for the epidemiology of HFMD.

  14. Time Trends over 16 Years in Incidence-Rates of Autism Spectrum Disorders across the Lifespan Based on Nationwide Danish Register Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jensen, Christina Mohr; Steinhausen, Hans-Christoph; Lauritsen, Marlene Briciet

    2014-01-01

    This study investigated time trends and associated factors of incidence rates of diagnosed autism spectrum disorders (ASD) across the lifespan from 1995 to 2010, using data from the Danish Psychiatric Central Research Registry. First time diagnosis of childhood autism, atypical autism, Asperger's syndrome, or pervasive developmental…

  15. Incidence rates and management of urinary tract infections among children in Dutch general practice: results from a nation-wide registration study.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    W.Y. Kwok (Wing-Yee); M.C. Kwaadsteniet (Marjolein); M. Harmsen (Mirjam); L.W.A. van Suijlekom-Smit (Lisette); F.G. Schellevis (François); J.C. van der Wouden (Hans)

    2006-01-01

    textabstractBACKGROUND: We aimed to investigate incidence rates of urinary tract infections in Dutch general practice and their association with gender, season and urbanisation level, and to analyse prescription and referral in case of urinary tract infections. METHOD: During one calendar year, 195

  16. Incidence rates and management of urinary tract infections among children in Dutch general practice: results from a nation-wide registration study.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kwok, W.Y.; Kwaadsteniet, M.C. de; Harmsen, M.; Suijlekom-Smit, L.W. van; Schellevis, F.G.; Wouden, J.C. van der

    2006-01-01

    BACKGROUND: We aimed to investigate incidence rates of urinary tract infections in Dutch general practice and their association with gender, season and urbanisation level, and to analyse prescription and referral in case of urinary tract infections. METHOD: During one calendar year, 195 general

  17. Trends in incidence rate, health care consumption, and costs for patients admitted with a humeral fracture in The Netherlands between 1986 and 2012

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    K.C. Mahabier (Kiran); D. den Hartog (Dennis); M.J.M. Panneman (Martien); J.R. van Veldhuizen (Joyce); S. Polinder (Suzanne); M.H.J. Verhofstad (Michiel); E.M.M. van Lieshout (Esther)

    2015-01-01

    textabstractIntroduction: This study aimed to examine long-term population-based trends in the incidence rate of patients with a humeral fracture admitted to a hospital in the Netherlands from 1986 to 2012 and to give a detailed overview of the health care consumption and productivity loss with

  18. Descriptive Study of the Environmental Epidemiology of High Lung Cancer 
Incidence Rate in Qujing, Yunnan, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Linlin ZHANG

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Background and objective Qujing, located in Southwest China, is an area with an extremely high lung cancer incidence. Combustion of coal has exposed local people to great health hazards. The aim of this study is to achieve a thorough understanding of the relationship between environmental pollution and the high incidence of lung cancer in Qujing, Yunnan Province, China. The results would provide a scientific basis and support for the etiology of lung cancer, as well as suggestions on improving the environmental conditions in the area. Methods A total of 280 rural villages were selected through stratified cluster random sampling. Environmental background and pollution were investigated, including details on fuel type, coking plant, metal smelting, and chemical plant, among others. Logistic regression analysis was used to analyze the investigated factors. Results Out of the total number of local villages studied, 78.1% of those with high incidence often use smoky coal and coking. On the other hand, 78.8% of the low-incidence areas use smokeless coal or wood. Logistic regression analysis indicated that the coal type used for everyday life was a main risk factor related to lung cancer (P<0.05. Using smoky and coking coals create an alarmingly high risk for developing lung cancer. Meanwhile, smokeless coals and wood seemed to have no significant relationship to the lung cancer incidence. Conclusion The fuel type used for everyday life is an important factor in the high incidence of lung cancer in Qujing. Evidently, the use of smoky coal and coke increased the incidence of lung cancer, whereas smokeless coal and wood seem to bring about the contrary.

  19. Monetary models and exchange rate determination: The Nigerian ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Monetary models and exchange rate determination: The Nigerian evidence. ... income levels and real interest rate differentials provide better forecasts of the ... partner can expect to suffer depreciation in the external value of her currency.

  20. A forecasting model for dengue incidence in the District of Gampaha, Sri Lanka.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Withanage, Gayan P; Viswakula, Sameera D; Nilmini Silva Gunawardena, Y I; Hapugoda, Menaka D

    2018-04-24

    Dengue is one of the major health problems in Sri Lanka causing an enormous social and economic burden to the country. An accurate early warning system can enhance the efficiency of preventive measures. The aim of the study was to develop and validate a simple accurate forecasting model for the District of Gampaha, Sri Lanka. Three time-series regression models were developed using monthly rainfall, rainy days, temperature, humidity, wind speed and retrospective dengue incidences over the period January 2012 to November 2015 for the District of Gampaha, Sri Lanka. Various lag times were analyzed to identify optimum forecasting periods including interactions of multiple lags. The models were validated using epidemiological data from December 2015 to November 2017. Prepared models were compared based on Akaike's information criterion, Bayesian information criterion and residual analysis. The selected model forecasted correctly with mean absolute errors of 0.07 and 0.22, and root mean squared errors of 0.09 and 0.28, for training and validation periods, respectively. There were no dengue epidemics observed in the district during the training period and nine outbreaks occurred during the forecasting period. The proposed model captured five outbreaks and correctly rejected 14 within the testing period of 24 months. The Pierce skill score of the model was 0.49, with a receiver operating characteristic of 86% and 92% sensitivity. The developed weather based forecasting model allows warnings of impending dengue outbreaks and epidemics in advance of one month with high accuracy. Depending upon climatic factors, the previous month's dengue cases had a significant effect on the dengue incidences of the current month. The simple, precise and understandable forecasting model developed could be used to manage limited public health resources effectively for patient management, vector surveillance and intervention programmes in the district.

  1. Convergence of decreasing male and increasing female incidence rates in major tobacco-related cancers in Europe in 1988-2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lortet-Tieulent, Joannie; Renteria, Elisenda; Sharp, Linda; Weiderpass, Elisabete; Comber, Harry; Baas, Paul; Bray, Freddie; Coebergh, Jan Willem; Soerjomataram, Isabelle

    2015-06-01

    Smoking prevalence has been declining in men all over Europe, while the trend varies in European regions among women. To study the impact of past smoking prevalence, we present a comprehensive overview of the most recent trends in incidence, during 1988-2010, in 26 countries, of four of the major cancers in the respiratory and upper gastro-intestinal tract associated with tobacco smoking. Data from 47 population-based cancer registries for lung, laryngeal, oral cavity and pharyngeal, and oesophageal cancer cases were obtained from the newly developed data repository within the European Cancer Observatory (http://eco.iarc.fr/). Truncated age-standardised incidence rates (35-74 years) by calendar year, average annual percentage change in incidence over 1998-2007 were calculated. Smoking prevalence in selected countries was extracted from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development and the World Health Organization databases. There remained great but changing variation in the incidence rates of tobacco-related cancers by European region. Generally, the high rates among men have been declining, while the lower rates among women are increasing, resulting in convergence of the rates. Female lung cancer rates were above male rates in Denmark, Iceland and Sweden (35-64 years). In lung and laryngeal cancers, where smoking is the main risk factor, rates were highest in central and eastern Europe, southern Europe and the Baltic countries. Despite a lowering of female smoking prevalence, female incidence rates of lung, laryngeal and oral cavity cancers increased in most parts of Europe, but were stable in the Baltic countries. Mixed trends emerged in oesophageal cancer, probably explained by differing risk factors for the two main histological subtypes. This data repository offers the opportunity to show the variety of incidence trends by sex among European countries. The diverse patterns of trends reflect varied exposure to risk factors. Given the heavy cancer

  2. A reanalysis of a behavioral intervention to prevent incident HIV infections: Including indirect effects in modeling outcomes of Project EXPLORE

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eaton, Lisa A.; Kalichman, Seth C.; Kenny, David A.; Harel, Ofer

    2013-01-01

    Background Project EXPLORE -- a large-scale, behavioral intervention tested among men who have sex with men (MSM) at-risk for HIV infection --was generally deemed as ineffective in reducing HIV incidence. Using novel and more precise data analytic techniques we reanalyzed Project EXPLORE by including both direct and indirect paths of intervention effects. Methods Data from 4,296 HIV negative MSM who participated in Project EXPLORE, which included ten sessions of behavioral risk reduction counseling completed from 1999-2005, were included in the analysis. We reanalyzed the data to include parameters that estimate the overtime effects of the intervention on unprotected anal sex and the over-time effects of the intervention on HIV status mediated by unprotected anal sex simultaneously in a single model. Results We found the indirect effect of intervention on HIV infection through unprotected anal sex to be statistically significant up through 12 months post-intervention, OR=.83, 95% CI=.72-.95. Furthermore, the intervention significantly reduced unprotected anal sex up through 18 months post-intervention, OR=.79, 95% CI=.63-.99. Discussion Our results reveal effects not tested in the original model that offer new insight into the effectiveness of a behavioral intervention for reducing HIV incidence. Project EXPLORE demonstrated that when tested against an evidence-based, effective control condition can result in reductions in rates of HIV acquisition at one year follow-up. Findings highlight the critical role of addressing behavioral risk reduction counseling in HIV prevention. PMID:23245226

  3. The incidence rate of female breast cancer in Saudi Arabia: an observational descriptive epidemiological analysis of data from Saudi Cancer Registry 2001–2008

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alghamdi IG

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Ibrahim G Alghamdi,1 Issam I Hussain,1 Mohamed S Alghamdi,2 Mohamed A El-Sheemy1,3 1University of Lincoln, Brayford Pool, Lincoln, United Kingdom; 2Ministry of Health, General Directorate of Health Affairs Al-Baha, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia; 3Lincoln Hospital, Research and Development, United Lincolnshire Hospitals, National Health Service Trust, Lincoln, United Kingdom Background: This study presents descriptive epidemiological data related to breast cancer cases diagnosed from 2001 to 2008 among Saudi women, including the frequency and percentage of cases, the crude incidence rate (CIR, and the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR, adjusted by the region and year of diagnosis. Methods: This is a retrospective descriptive epidemiological study of all Saudi female breast cancer cases from 2001 to 2008. The statistical analyses were conducted using descriptive statistics, a linear regression model, and analysis of variance with the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences version 20 (IBM Corporation, Armonk, NY, USA. Results: A total of 6,922 female breast cancer cases were recorded in the Saudi Cancer Registry from 2001 to 2008. The highest overall percentages (38.6% and 31.2% of female breast cancer cases were documented in women who were 30–44 and 45–59 years of age, respectively. The eastern region of Saudi Arabia had the highest overall ASIR, at 26.6 per 100,000 women, followed by Riyadh at 20.5 and Makkah at 19.4. Jazan, Baha, and Asir had the lowest average ASIRs, at 4.8, 6.1, and 7.3 per 100,000 women, respectively. The region of Jouf (24.2%; CIR 11.2, ASIR 17.2 had the highest changes in CIR and ASIR from 2001 to 2008. While Qassim, Jazan and Tabuk recorded down-trending rates with negative values. Conclusion: There was a significant increase in the CIRs and ASIRs for female breast cancer between 2001 and 2008. The majority of breast cancer cases occurred among younger women. The region of Jouf had the greatest significant

  4. Random incidence absorption coefficients of porous absorbers based on local and extended reaction models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jeong, Cheol-Ho

    2011-01-01

    resistivity and the absorber thickness on the difference between the two surface reaction models are examined and discussed. For a porous absorber backed by a rigid surface, the local reaction models give errors of less than 10% if the thickness exceeds 120 mm for a flow resistivity of 5000 Nm-4s. As the flow...... incidence acoustical characteristics of typical building elements made of porous materials assuming extended and local reaction. For each surface reaction, five well-established wave propagation models, the Delany-Bazley, Miki, Beranek, Allard-Champoux, and Biot model, are employed. Effects of the flow...... resistivity doubles, a decrease in the required thickness by 25 mm is observed to achieve the same amount of error. For an absorber backed by an air gap, the thickness ratio between the material and air cavity is important. If the absorber thickness is approximately 40% of the cavity depth, the local reaction...

  5. Forecasting typhoid fever incidence in the Cordillera administrative region in the Philippines using seasonal ARIMA models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cawiding, Olive R.; Natividad, Gina May R.; Bato, Crisostomo V.; Addawe, Rizavel C.

    2017-11-01

    The prevalence of typhoid fever in developing countries such as the Philippines calls for a need for accurate forecasting of the disease. This will be of great assistance in strategic disease prevention. This paper presents a development of useful models that predict the behavior of typhoid fever incidence based on the monthly incidence in the provinces of the Cordillera Administrative Region from 2010 to 2015 using univariate time series analysis. The data used was obtained from the Cordillera Office of the Department of Health (DOH-CAR). Seasonal autoregressive moving average (SARIMA) models were used to incorporate the seasonality of the data. A comparison of the results of the obtained models revealed that the SARIMA (1,1,7)(0,0,1)12 with a fixed coefficient at the seventh lag produces the smallest root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC). The model suggested that for the year 2016, the number of cases would increase from the months of July to September and have a drop in December. This was then validated using the data collected from January 2016 to December 2016.

  6. Central nervous system tumours among adolescents and young adults (15-39 years) in Southern and Eastern Europe: Registration improvements reveal higher incidence rates compared to the US.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Georgakis, Marios K; Panagopoulou, Paraskevi; Papathoma, Paraskevi; Tragiannidis, Athanasios; Ryzhov, Anton; Zivkovic-Perisic, Snezana; Eser, Sultan; Taraszkiewicz, Łukasz; Sekerija, Mario; Žagar, Tina; Antunes, Luis; Zborovskaya, Anna; Bastos, Joana; Florea, Margareta; Coza, Daniela; Demetriou, Anna; Agius, Domenic; Strahinja, Rajko M; Sfakianos, Georgios; Nikas, Ioannis; Kosmidis, Sofia; Razis, Evangelia; Pourtsidis, Apostolos; Kantzanou, Maria; Dessypris, Nick; Petridou, Eleni Th

    2017-11-01

    To present incidence of central nervous system (CNS) tumours among adolescents and young adults (AYAs; 15-39 years) derived from registries of Southern and Eastern Europe (SEE) in comparison to the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER), US and explore changes due to etiological parameters or registration improvement via evaluating time trends. Diagnoses of 11,438 incident malignant CNS tumours in AYAs (1990-2014) were retrieved from 14 collaborating SEE cancer registries and 13,573 from the publicly available SEER database (1990-2012). Age-adjusted incidence rates (AIRs) were calculated; Poisson and joinpoint regression analyses were performed for temporal trends. The overall AIR of malignant CNS tumours among AYAs was higher in SEE (28.1/million) compared to SEER (24.7/million). Astrocytomas comprised almost half of the cases in both regions, albeit the higher proportion of unspecified cases in SEE registries (30% versus 2.5% in SEER). Similar were the age and gender distributions across SEE and SEER with a male-to-female ratio of 1.3 and an overall increase of incidence by age. Increasing temporal trends in incidence were documented in four SEE registries (Greater Poland, Portugal North, Turkey-Izmir and Ukraine) versus an annual decrease in Croatia (-2.5%) and a rather stable rate in SEER (-0.3%). This first report on descriptive epidemiology of AYAs malignant CNS tumours in the SEE area shows higher incidence rates as compared to the United States of America and variable temporal trends that may be linked to registration improvements. Hence, it emphasises the need for optimisation of cancer registration processes, as to enable the in-depth evaluation of the observed patterns by disease subtype. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. A Range-Based Multivariate Model for Exchange Rate Volatility

    OpenAIRE

    Tims, Ben; Mahieu, Ronald

    2003-01-01

    textabstractIn this paper we present a parsimonious multivariate model for exchange rate volatilities based on logarithmic high-low ranges of daily exchange rates. The multivariate stochastic volatility model divides the log range of each exchange rate into two independent latent factors, which are interpreted as the underlying currency specific components. Due to the normality of logarithmic volatilities the model can be estimated conveniently with standard Kalman filter techniques. Our resu...

  8. Modelling psychological responses to the Great East Japan earthquake and nuclear incident.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goodwin, Robin; Takahashi, Masahito; Sun, Shaojing; Gaines, Stanley O

    2012-01-01

    The Great East Japan (Tōhoku/Kanto) earthquake of March 2011 was followed by a major tsunami and nuclear incident. Several previous studies have suggested a number of psychological responses to such disasters. However, few previous studies have modelled individual differences in the risk perceptions of major events, or the implications of these perceptions for relevant behaviours. We conducted a survey specifically examining responses to the Great Japan earthquake and nuclear incident, with data collected 11-13 weeks following these events. 844 young respondents completed a questionnaire in three regions of Japan; Miyagi (close to the earthquake and leaking nuclear plants), Tokyo/Chiba (approximately 220 km from the nuclear plants), and Western Japan (Yamaguchi and Nagasaki, some 1000 km from the plants). Results indicated significant regional differences in risk perception, with greater concern over earthquake risks in Tokyo than in Miyagi or Western Japan. Structural equation analyses showed that shared normative concerns about earthquake and nuclear risks, conservation values, lack of trust in governmental advice about the nuclear hazard, and poor personal control over the nuclear incident were positively correlated with perceived earthquake and nuclear risks. These risk perceptions further predicted specific outcomes (e.g. modifying homes, avoiding going outside, contemplating leaving Japan). The strength and significance of these pathways varied by region. Mental health and practical implications of these findings are discussed in the light of the continuing uncertainties in Japan following the March 2011 events.

  9. Modelling psychological responses to the Great East Japan earthquake and nuclear incident.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robin Goodwin

    Full Text Available The Great East Japan (Tōhoku/Kanto earthquake of March 2011 was followed by a major tsunami and nuclear incident. Several previous studies have suggested a number of psychological responses to such disasters. However, few previous studies have modelled individual differences in the risk perceptions of major events, or the implications of these perceptions for relevant behaviours. We conducted a survey specifically examining responses to the Great Japan earthquake and nuclear incident, with data collected 11-13 weeks following these events. 844 young respondents completed a questionnaire in three regions of Japan; Miyagi (close to the earthquake and leaking nuclear plants, Tokyo/Chiba (approximately 220 km from the nuclear plants, and Western Japan (Yamaguchi and Nagasaki, some 1000 km from the plants. Results indicated significant regional differences in risk perception, with greater concern over earthquake risks in Tokyo than in Miyagi or Western Japan. Structural equation analyses showed that shared normative concerns about earthquake and nuclear risks, conservation values, lack of trust in governmental advice about the nuclear hazard, and poor personal control over the nuclear incident were positively correlated with perceived earthquake and nuclear risks. These risk perceptions further predicted specific outcomes (e.g. modifying homes, avoiding going outside, contemplating leaving Japan. The strength and significance of these pathways varied by region. Mental health and practical implications of these findings are discussed in the light of the continuing uncertainties in Japan following the March 2011 events.

  10. Monte Carlo mixture model of lifetime cancer incidence risk from radiation exposure on shuttle and international space station

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peterson, L.E.; Cucinotta, F.A.

    1999-01-01

    Estimating uncertainty in lifetime cancer risk for human exposure to space radiation is a unique challenge. Conventional risk assessment with low-linear-energy-transfer (LET)-based risk from Japanese atomic bomb survivor studies may be inappropriate for relativistic protons and nuclei in space due to track structure effects. This paper develops a Monte Carlo mixture model (MCMM) for transferring additive, National Institutes of Health multiplicative, and multiplicative excess cancer incidence risks based on Japanese atomic bomb survivor data to determine excess incidence risk for various US astronaut exposure profiles. The MCMM serves as an anchor point for future risk projection methods involving biophysical models of DNA damage from space radiation. Lifetime incidence risks of radiation-induced cancer for the MCMM based on low-LET Japanese data for nonleukemia (all cancers except leukemia) were 2.77 (90% confidence limit, 0.75-11.34) for males exposed to 1 Sv at age 45 and 2.20 (90% confidence limit, 0.59-10.12) for males exposed at age 55. For females, mixture model risks for nonleukemia exposed separately to 1 Sv at ages of 45 and 55 were 2.98 (90% confidence limit, 0.90-11.70) and 2.44 (90% confidence limit, 0.70-10.30), respectively. Risks for high-LET 200 MeV protons (LET=0.45 keV/μm), 1 MeV α-particles (LET=100 keV/μm), and 600 MeV iron particles (LET=180 keV/μm) were scored on a per particle basis by determining the particle fluence required for an average of one particle per cell nucleus of area 100 μm 2 . Lifetime risk per proton was 2.68x10 -2 % (90% confidence limit, 0.79x10 -3 %-0.514x10 -2 %). For α-particles, lifetime risk was 14.2% (90% confidence limit, 2.5%-31.2%). Conversely, lifetime risk per iron particle was 23.7% (90% confidence limit, 4.5%-53.0%). Uncertainty in the DDREF for high-LET particles may be less than that for low-LET radiation because typically there is very little dose-rate dependence. Probability density functions for

  11. Aspect-Aware Latent Factor Model: Rating Prediction with Ratings and Reviews

    OpenAIRE

    Cheng, Zhiyong; Ding, Ying; Zhu, Lei; Kankanhalli, Mohan

    2018-01-01

    Although latent factor models (e.g., matrix factorization) achieve good accuracy in rating prediction, they suffer from several problems including cold-start, non-transparency, and suboptimal recommendation for local users or items. In this paper, we employ textual review information with ratings to tackle these limitations. Firstly, we apply a proposed aspect-aware topic model (ATM) on the review text to model user preferences and item features from different aspects, and estimate the aspect...

  12. Associations of Census-Tract Poverty with Subsite-Specific Colorectal Cancer Incidence Rates and Stage of Disease at Diagnosis in the United States

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kevin A. Henry

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. It remains unclear whether neighborhood poverty contributes to differences in subsite-specific colorectal cancer (CRC incidence. We examined associations between census-tract poverty and CRC incidence and stage by anatomic subsite and race/ethnicity. Methods. CRC cases diagnosed between 2005 and 2009 from 15 states and Los Angeles County (N=278,097 were assigned to 1 of 4 groups based on census-tract poverty. Age-adjusted and stage-specific CRC incidence rates (IRs and incidence rate ratios (IRRs were calculated. Analyses were stratified by subsite (proximal, distal, and rectum, sex, race/ethnicity, and poverty. Results. Compared to the lowest poverty areas, CRC IRs were significantly higher in the most impoverished areas for men (IRR = 1.14 95% CI 1.12–1.17 and women (IRR = 1.06 95% CI 1.05–1.08. Rate differences between high and low poverty were strongest for distal colon (male IRR = 1.24 95% CI 1.20–1.28; female IRR = 1.14 95% CI 1.10–1.18 and weakest for proximal colon. These rate differences were significant for non-Hispanic whites and blacks and for Asian/Pacific Islander men. Inverse associations between poverty and IRs of all CRC and proximal colon were found for Hispanics. Late-to-early stage CRC IRRs increased monotonically with increasing poverty for all race/ethnicity groups. Conclusion. There are differences in subsite-specific CRC incidence by poverty, but associations were moderated by race/ethnicity.

  13. Incidence rate of mild traumatic brain injury among patients who have suffered from an isolated limb fracture: Upper limb fracture patients are more at risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jodoin, Marianne; Rouleau, Dominique M; Charlebois-Plante, Camille; Benoit, Benoit; Leduc, Stéphane; Laflamme, G-Yves; Gosselin, Nadia; Larson-Dupuis, Camille; De Beaumont, Louis

    2016-08-01

    This study compares the incidence rate of mild traumatic brain injury (mild TBI) detected at follow-up visits (retrospective diagnosis) in patients suffering from an isolated limb trauma, with the incidence rate held by the hospital records (prospective diagnosis) of the sampled cohort. This study also seeks to determine which types of fractures present with the highest incidence of mild TBI. Retrospective assessment of mild TBI among orthopaedic monotrauma patients, randomly selected for participation in an Orthopaedic clinic of a Level I Trauma Hospital. Patients in the remission phase of a limb fracture were recruited between August 2014 and May 2015. No intervention was done (observational study). Standardized semi-structured interviews were conducted with all patients to retrospectively assess for mild TBI at the time of the fracture. Emergency room related medical records of all patients were carefully analyzed to determine whether a prospective mild TBI diagnosis was made following the accident. A total of 251 patients were recruited (54% females, Mean age=49). Study interview revealed a 23.5% incidence rate of mild TBI compared to an incidence rate of 8.8% for prospective diagnosis (χ(2)=78.47; plimb monotrauma (29.6%; n=42/142) are significantly more at risk of sustaining a mild TBI compared to lower limb fractures (15.6%; n=17/109) (χ(2)=6.70; p=0.010). More specifically, patients with a proximal upper limb injury were significantly more at risk of sustaining concomitant mild TBI (40.6%; 26/64) compared to distal upper limb fractures (20.25%; 16/79) (χ(2)=7.07; p=0.008). Results suggest an important concomitance of mild TBI among orthopaedic trauma patients, the majority of which go undetected during acute care. Patients treated for an upper limb fracture are particularly at risk of sustaining concomitant mild TBI. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Associations of Census-Tract Poverty with Sub site-Specific Colorectal Cancer Incidence Rates and Stage of Disease at Diagnosis in the United States

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Henry, K. A.; Stroup, A. M.; Sherman, R. L.

    2014-01-01

    It remains unclear whether neighborhood poverty contributes to differences in subsite-specific colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence. We examined associations between census-tract poverty and CRC incidence and stage by anatomic sub site and race/ethnicity. Methods. CRC cases diagnosed between 2005 and 2009 from 15 states and Los Angeles County (N = 278,097) were assigned to 1 of 4 groups based on census-tract poverty. Age-adjusted and stage-specific CRC incidence rates (IRs) and incidence rate ratios (IRRs) were calculated. Analyses were stratified by sub site (proximal, distal, and rectum), sex, race/ethnicity, and poverty. Results. Compared to the lowest poverty areas, CRC IRs were significantly higher in the most impoverished areas for men (IRR = 1.14 95% CI 1.12-1.17) and women (IRR = 1.06 95% CI 1.05-1.08). Rate differences between high and low poverty were strongest for distal colon (male IRR = 1.24 95% CI 1.20-1.28; female IRR = 1.14 95% CI 1.10-1.18) and weakest for proximal colon. These rate differences were significant for non-Hispanic whites and blacks and for Asian/Pacific Islander men. Inverse associations between poverty and IRs of all CRC and proximal colon were found for Hispanics. Late-to-early stage CRC IRRs increased monotonically with increasing poverty for all race/ethnicity groups. Conclusion. There are differences in sub site-specific CRC incidence by poverty, but associations were moderated by race/ethnicity.

  15. Global asymptotic stability of a delayed SEIRS epidemic model with saturation incidence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Tailei; Teng Zhidong

    2008-01-01

    In this paper, the asymptotic behavior of solutions of an autonomous SEIRS epidemic model with the saturation incidence is studied. Using the method of Liapunov-LaSalle invariance principle, we obtain the disease-free equilibrium is globally stable if the basic reproduction number is not greater than one. Moreover, we show that the disease is permanent if the basic reproduction number is greater than one. Furthermore, the sufficient conditions of locally and globally asymptotically stable convergence to an endemic equilibrium are obtained base on the permanence

  16. Hydroclimatology of Dual Peak Cholera Incidence in Bengal Region: Inferences from a Spatial Explicit Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertuzzo, E.; Mari, L.; Righetto, L.; Casagrandi, R.; Gatto, M.; Rodriguez-Iturbe, I.; Rinaldo, A.

    2010-12-01

    The seasonality of cholera and its relation with environmental drivers are receiving increasing interest and research efforts, yet they remain unsatisfactorily understood. A striking example is the observed annual cycle of cholera incidence in the Bengal region which exhibits two peaks despite the main environmental drivers that have been linked to the disease (air and sea surface temperature, zooplankton density, river discharge) follow a synchronous single-peak annual pattern. A first outbreak, mainly affecting the coastal regions, occurs in spring and it is followed, after a period of low incidence during summer, by a second, usually larger, peak in autumn also involving regions situated farther inland. A hydroclimatological explanation for this unique seasonal cycle has been recently proposed: the low river spring flows favor the intrusion of brackish water (the natural environment of the causative agent of the disease) which, in turn, triggers the first outbreak. The summer rising river discharges have a temporary dilution effect and prompt the repulsion of contaminated water which lowers the disease incidence. However, the monsoon flooding, together with the induced crowding of the population and the failure of the sanitation systems, can possibly facilitate the spatial transmission of the disease and promote the autumn outbreak. We test this hypothesis using a mechanistic, spatially explicit model of cholera epidemic. The framework directly accounts for the role of the river network in transporting and redistributing cholera bacteria among human communities as well as for the annual fluctuation of the river flow. The model is forced with the actual environmental drivers of the region, namely river flow and temperature. Our results show that these two drivers, both having a single peak in the summer, can generate a double peak cholera incidence pattern. Besides temporal patterns, the model is also able to qualitatively reproduce spatial patterns characterized

  17. Continuum modeling of ion-beam eroded surfaces under normal incidence: Impact of stochastic fluctuations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dreimann, Karsten; Linz, Stefan J.

    2010-01-01

    Graphical abstract: Deterministic surface pattern (left) and its stochastic counterpart (right) arising in a stochastic damped Kuramoto-Sivashinsky equation that serves as a model equation for ion-beam eroded surfaces and is systematically investigated. - Abstract: Using a recently proposed field equation for the surface evolution of ion-beam eroded semiconductor target materials under normal incidence, we systematically explore the impact of additive stochastic fluctuations that are permanently present during the erosion process. Specifically, we investigate the dependence of the surface roughness, the underlying pattern forming properties and the bifurcation behavior on the strength of the fluctuations.

  18. Epidemiological study of paediatric germ cell tumours revealed the incidence and distribution that was expected, but a low mortality rate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Evers, Madeline; Rechnitzer, Catherine; Graem, Niels

    2017-01-01

    Aim: Germ cell tumours (GCTs) are a rare heterogeneous tumour group derived from primordial germ cells, which can be benign or malignant and occur in the gonads or extragonadally. This study mapped the paediatric GCTs in Denmark from 1984 to 2013 to study the incidence and outcome. Methods: We...

  19. The interaction evolution model of mass incidents with delay in a social network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huo, Liang'an; Ma, Chenyang

    2017-10-01

    Recent years have witnessed rapid development of information technology. Today, modern media is widely used for the purpose of spreading information rapidly and widely. In particular, through micro-blog promotions, individuals tend to express their viewpoints and spread information on the internet, which could easily lead to public opinions. Moreover, government authorities also disseminate official information to guide public opinion and eliminate any incorrect conjecture. In this paper, a dynamical model with two delays is investigated to exhibit the interaction evolution between the public and official opinion fields in network mass incidents. Based on the theory of differential equations, the interaction mechanism between two public opinion fields in a micro-blog environment is analyzed. Two delays are proposed in the model to depict the response delays of public and official opinion fields. Some stable conditions are obtained, which shows that Hopf bifurcation can occur as delays cross critical values. Further, some numerical simulations are carried out to verify theoretical results. Our model indicates that there exists a golden time for government intervention, which should be emphasized given the impact of modern media and inaccurate rumors. If the government releases official information during the golden time, mass incidents on the internet can be controlled effectively.

  20. Incidence and 30-day case fatality rate of first-ever stroke in urban Nigeria: the prospective community based Epidemiology of Stroke in Lagos (EPISIL) phase II results.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Danesi, Mustapha A; Okubadejo, Njideka U; Ojini, Frank I; Ojo, Oluwadamilola O

    2013-08-15

    Stroke is a leading cause of death worldwide and a major contributor to global disease burden. Although epidemiologic information from a community perspective is important in determining the magnitude of the burden in specific regions, and directing equitable distribution of health resources, data on the incidence of stroke in developing countries in Africa are scarce. To determine the current incidence rate and short-term (30-day) case fatality rate (CFR) of stroke in urban Nigeria, and provide age-adjusted and gender-specific incidence rates to enable comparison with global populations. The study was a prospective community-based stroke registry enrolling hospitalized and non-hospitalized first-ever in a lifetime stroke cases presenting at all health facilities (hospitals, homeopathic caregivers, physiotherapy clinics) located in the designated community. Pre-hospitalization deaths due to stroke were not included in our study. The study was conducted between January 1st and December 31st 2007 in Surulere Local Government Area of Lagos State, south western Nigeria, a mixed-income urban locality with a population of approximately 750,000 based on data from the National Population Commission. Stroke was defined using the World Health Organization (WHO) clinical criteria. Case fatality at 30-days post stroke was determined at follow-up on 160 hospitalized stroke cases. 189 first-ever strokes, comprised of 112 men and 77 women (mean±SD age 58.5±13.5 years) were documented, giving a crude incidence rate of 25.2 per 100,000 per year (95% confidence interval 21.6- 28.8). The gender-specific rates were 28.3/100,000 and 21.3/100,000 for males and females respectively. The age-adjusted incidence rate was 54.08 per 100,000 per year (adjusted to the WHO New World Population). Hospitalization rate was 84.6%, while the CFR (hospitalized) was 16.2%. The stroke incidence in this urban sub-Saharan African community remains lower than that in emerging and developed economies

  1. Should modest elevations in prostate-specific antigen, International Prostate Symptom Score, or their rates of increase over time be used as surrogate measures of incident benign prostatic hyperplasia?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schenk, Jeannette M; Hunter-Merrill, Rachel; Zheng, Yingye; Etzioni, Ruth; Gulati, Roman; Tangen, Catherine; Thompson, Ian M; Kristal, Alan R

    2013-09-01

    Although surrogate measures of benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH) are often used in epidemiologic studies, their performance characteristics are unknown. Using data from the Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial (n = 5,986), we evaluated prostate-specific antigen (PSA), International Prostate Symptom Score (IPSS), and their rates of change as predictors of incident BPH. BPH (n = 842 cases) was defined as medical or surgical treatment or at least 2 IPSS of 15 or higher. Proportional hazards models were used to measure the associations of baseline PSA, IPSS, and their velocities over 2 years with BPH risk, and time-dependent receiver-operating characteristic curves were used to measure their discriminatory performance. Unit increases in PSA, IPSS, and IPSS velocity were associated with 34%, 35%, and 29% (all P specificity were both above 75%. We concluded that moderate elevations in PSA, IPSS, or their rates of change should not be used as surrogate measures of incident BPH.

  2. Effect of low-intensity low-dose rate irradiation on the incidence and the development of spontaneous leukosis in AKR mice

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burlakova, E.B.; Erokhin, V.N.

    2001-01-01

    Development of spontaneous leukosis in AKR mice is accelerated by irradiation with low doses of 1.2-2.4 cGy and low dose rate 0.06 cGy/day. The leukoses incidence rate increases. Deaths of the animals from leukosis occurs earlier, shortening the average and maximum life-spans of the animals. The dynamics of changes in the mass of organs of the immune systems (thymus and spleen) shows extrema. The moment of reaching the extremum correlates with the maximum rate of animals' deaths [ru

  3. A model for C-14 tracer evaporative rate analysis (ERA)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gardner, R.P.; Verghese, K.

    1993-01-01

    A simple model has been derived and tested for the C-14 tracer evaporative rate analysis (ERA) method. It allows the accurate determination of the evaporative rate coefficient of the C-14 tracer detector in the presence of variable evaporation rates of the detector solvent and variable background counting rates. The evaporation rate coefficient should be the most fundamental parameter available in this analysis method and, therefore, its measurements with the proposed model should allow the most direct correlations to be made with the system properties of interest such as surface cleanliness. (author)

  4. A critique of recent models for human error rate assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Apostolakis, G.E.

    1988-01-01

    This paper critically reviews two groups of models for assessing human error rates under accident conditions. The first group, which includes the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) handbook model and the human cognitive reliability (HCR) model, considers as fundamental the time that is available to the operators to act. The second group, which is represented by the success likelihood index methodology multiattribute utility decomposition (SLIM-MAUD) model, relies on ratings of the human actions with respect to certain qualitative factors and the subsequent derivation of error rates. These models are evaluated with respect to two criteria: the treatment of uncertainties and the internal coherence of the models. In other words, this evaluation focuses primarily on normative aspects of these models. The principal findings are as follows: (1) Both of the time-related models provide human error rates as a function of the available time for action and the prevailing conditions. However, the HCR model ignores the important issue of state-of-knowledge uncertainties, dealing exclusively with stochastic uncertainty, whereas the model presented in the NRC handbook handles both types of uncertainty. (2) SLIM-MAUD provides a highly structured approach for the derivation of human error rates under given conditions. However, the treatment of the weights and ratings in this model is internally inconsistent. (author)

  5. Data analysis using the Binomial Failure Rate common cause model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Atwood, C.L.

    1983-09-01

    This report explains how to use the Binomial Failure Rate (BFR) method to estimate common cause failure rates. The entire method is described, beginning with the conceptual model, and covering practical issues of data preparation, treatment of variation in the failure rates, Bayesian estimation of the quantities of interest, checking the model assumptions for lack of fit to the data, and the ultimate application of the answers

  6. Overview and Evaluation of a Smoke Modeling System and other Tools used during Wildfire Incident Deployments

    Science.gov (United States)

    ONeill, S. M.; Larkin, N. K.; Martinez, M.; Rorig, M.; Solomon, R. C.; Dubowy, J.; Lahm, P. W.

    2017-12-01

    Specialists operationally deployed to wildfires to forecast expected smoke conditions for the public use many tools and information. These Air Resource Advisors (ARAs) are deployed as part of the Wildland Fire Air Quality Response Program (WFAQRP) and rely on smoke models, monitoring data, meteorological information, and satellite information to produce daily Smoke Outlooks for a region impacted by smoke from wildfires. These Smoke Outlooks are distributed to air quality and health agencies, published online via smoke blogs and other social media, and distributed by the Incident Public Information Officer (PIO), and ultimately to the public. Fundamental to these operations are smoke modeling systems such as the BlueSky Smoke Modeling Framework, which combines fire activity information, mapped fuel loadings, consumption and emissions models, and air quality/dispersion models such as HYSPLIT to produce predictions of PM2.5 concentrations downwind of wildland fires. Performance of this system at a variety of meteorological resolutions, fire initialization information, and vertical allocation of emissions is evaluated for the Summer of 2015 when over 400,000 hectares burned in the northwestern US state of Washington and 1-hr average fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations exceeded 700 μg/m3. The performance of the system at the 12-km, 4-km, and 1.33-km resolutions is evaluated using 1-hr average PM2.5 measurements from permanent monitors and temporary monitors deployed specifically for wildfires by ARAs on wildfire incident command teams. At the higher meteorological resolution (1.33-km) the terrain features are more detailed, showing better valley structures and in general, PM2.5 concentrations were greater in the valleys with the 1.33-km meteorological domain than with the 4-km domain.

  7. The oil spill modelling in the Sea of Japan: application to the tanker 'Nakhodka' 1997 incident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Varlamov, S.M.; Yoon, J.-H.; Hirose, N.; Kawamura, H.

    1998-01-01

    In January 1997 the Russian tanker 'NAKHODKA' spilled into the Sea of Japan about 5000 tons of heavy fuel oil type C. Most of it reached the coast of Japan and damaged the environment. This incident forced the development of the operational system for the prediction of oil spills in the Sea of Japan. As a part of this system the model for oil spill modelling is presented. The modelled climatological sea currents were used in these simulators, generated by the three-dimensional primitive ocean circulation model with 10-minute horizontal resolution and 19 vertical levels. The model was forced by climatological atmospheric winds and heat fluxes. The wind currents in the upper sea layer were estimated by the wind data of ECMWF with 6 hours time and 0.5625-degree spatial resolution. The vertical structure of the total currents was interpolated using both wind driven currents and the climatological model currents data at the model levels. The oil spill was modelled with the particle tracking techniques. The model included the advection by currents, random diffusion, the buoyancy effect and the parameterisation of oil evaporation, biodegradation and beaching. For the deep sea the parameterisation of diffusion depends from the stratification, taken from the ocean circulation model output. The results demonstrated the defined relation with the observed propagation of the oil along the coast of Japan and highlighted the most important directions for the model development. The main is the realisation of the model for the real-time simulations and forecasts of the ocean currents with the fine resolution in the upper layer of the Sea of Japan. (author)

  8. The Swiss cheese model of safety incidents: are there holes in the metaphor?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Perneger Thomas V

    2005-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Reason's Swiss cheese model has become the dominant paradigm for analysing medical errors and patient safety incidents. The aim of this study was to determine if the components of the model are understood in the same way by quality and safety professionals. Methods Survey of a volunteer sample of persons who claimed familiarity with the model, recruited at a conference on quality in health care, and on the internet through quality-related websites. The questionnaire proposed several interpretations of components of the Swiss cheese model: a slice of cheese, b hole, c arrow, d active error, e how to make the system safer. Eleven interpretations were compatible with this author's interpretation of the model, 12 were not. Results Eighty five respondents stated that they were very or quite familiar with the model. They gave on average 15.3 (SD 2.3, range 10 to 21 "correct" answers out of 23 (66.5% – significantly more than 11.5 "correct" answers that would expected by chance (p Conclusion The interpretations of specific features of the Swiss cheese model varied considerably among quality and safety professionals. Reaching consensus about concepts of patient safety requires further work.

  9. Prediction of pipeline corrosion rate based on grey Markov models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen Yonghong; Zhang Dafa; Peng Guichu; Wang Yuemin

    2009-01-01

    Based on the model that combined by grey model and Markov model, the prediction of corrosion rate of nuclear power pipeline was studied. Works were done to improve the grey model, and the optimization unbiased grey model was obtained. This new model was used to predict the tendency of corrosion rate, and the Markov model was used to predict the residual errors. In order to improve the prediction precision, rolling operation method was used in these prediction processes. The results indicate that the improvement to the grey model is effective and the prediction precision of the new model combined by the optimization unbiased grey model and Markov model is better, and the use of rolling operation method may improve the prediction precision further. (authors)

  10. [Impact on the improvement of paediatric emergency services using a standardised model for the declaration and analysis of incidents].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vilà de Muga, M; Serrano Llop, A; Rifé Escudero, E; Jabalera Contreras, M; Luaces Cubells, C

    2015-10-01

    The aim of this study is to analyse changes in the incidents reported after the implementation of a new model, and study its results on patient safety. In 2012 an observational study with prospective collection of incidents reported between 2007 and 2011 was conducted. In May 2012 a model change was made in order to increase the number of reports, analyse their causes, and improve the feedback to the service. Professional safety representatives were assigned to every department, information and diffusion sessions were held, and a new incident reporting system was implemented. With the new model, a new observational study with prospective collection of the reports during one year was initiated, and the results compared between models. In 2011, only 19 incidents were reported in the Emergency Department, and between June 1, 2012 to June 1, 2013, 106 incidents (5.6 times more). The incidents reported were medication incidents (57%), identification (26%), and procedures (7%). The most frequent causes were human (70.7%), lack of training (22.6%), and working conditions (15.1%). Some measures were implemented as a result of these incidents: a surgical checklist, unit doses of salbutamol, tables of weight-standardised doses of drugs for cardiopulmonary resuscitation. The new model of reporting incidents has enhanced the reports and has allowed improvements and the implementation of preventive measures, increasing the patient safety in the Emergency Department. Copyright © 2014 Asociación Española de Pediatría. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  11. Model variations in predicting incidence of Plasmodium falciparum malaria using 1998-2007 morbidity and meteorological data from south Ethiopia

    OpenAIRE

    Loha, Eskindir; Lindtj?rn, Bernt

    2010-01-01

    Abstract Background Malaria transmission is complex and is believed to be associated with local climate changes. However, simple attempts to extrapolate malaria incidence rates from averaged regional meteorological conditions have proven unsuccessful. Therefore, the objective of this study was to determine if variations in specific meteorological factors are able to consistently predict P. falciparum malaria incidence at different locations in south Ethiopia. Methods Retrospective data from 4...

  12. Real Exchange Rate and Productivity in an OLG Model

    OpenAIRE

    Thi Hong Thinh DOAN; Karine GENTE

    2013-01-01

    This article develops an overlapping generations model to show how demography and savings affect the relationship between real exchange rate (RER) and productivity. In high-saving (low-saving) countries and/or low-population-growth-rate countries, a rise in productivity leads to a real depreciation (appreciation) whereas the RER may appreciate or depreciate in highproduction-growth-rate. Using panel data, we conclude that a rise in productivity generally causes a real exchange rate appreciati...

  13. Exchange rate predictability and state-of-the-art models

    OpenAIRE

    Yeșin, Pınar

    2016-01-01

    This paper empirically evaluates the predictive performance of the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) exchange rate assessments with respect to future exchange rate movements. The assessments of real trade-weighted exchange rates were conducted from 2006 to 2011, and were based on three state-of-the-art exchange rate models with a medium-term focus which were developed by the IMF. The empirical analysis using 26 advanced and emerging market economy currencies reveals that the "diagnosis" of ...

  14. Magnetic resonance angiography and CT angiography of persistent primitive olfactory artery: Incidence and association rate with aneurysm in Korea

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kwon, Bo Ra; Yeo, Soo Hyun; Chang, Hyuk Won; Kim, Mi Jeong; Lee, Sung Moon; Kim, Ealmaan; Kim, Mi Kyung; Cho, Ho Chan; Kim, Hye Soon [Keimyung University College of Medicine, Daegu (Korea, Republic of)

    2012-06-15

    Japanese data indicates an incidence of persistent primitive olfactory artery (PPOA) of 0.14%. We studied the incidence of PPOA and associated cerebral vascular variation or anomalies in Korea. We retrospectively reviewed cranial magnetic resonance angiography (MRA) and computed tomography angiography (CTA) images of a total of 9841 patients of our institution. The diagnostic criterion of PPOA is extreme anterioinferior course of the proximal anterior cerebral artery, with a hairpin turn of the lateral projection. We found 29 cases (0.29%) with PPOA. The PPOA location was on the left in 19 cases, bilateral in 3 cases, and on the right in 7 cases. An aneurysm was found at the hairpin turn in 2 patients. There were aneurysms in other sites in 3 cases. There were hypoplasia of anterior cerebral artery in 3 cases, and fenestration of intracranial artery in 1 case. In Korean populations, the incidence of PPOA found in MRA and CTA was twice as high as that shown in the previous Japanese data. Within Korea, left side laterality is more common than right side or bilalterality. Aneurysmal dilatations at the hairpin turning point and aneurysms at other sites were found, and other vascular variations were observed in several cases.

  15. Predicting the incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease in Sichuan province, China using the ARIMA model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, L; Luan, R S; Yin, F; Zhu, X P; Lü, Q

    2016-01-01

    Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) is an infectious disease caused by enteroviruses, which usually occurs in children aged ARIMA) model to forecast HFMD incidence in Sichuan province, China. HFMD infection data from January 2010 to June 2014 were used to fit the ARIMA model. The coefficient of determination (R 2), normalized Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) and mean absolute percentage of error (MAPE) were used to evaluate the goodness-of-fit of the constructed models. The fitted ARIMA model was applied to forecast the incidence of HMFD from April to June 2014. The goodness-of-fit test generated the optimum general multiplicative seasonal ARIMA (1,0,1) × (0,1,0)12 model (R 2 = 0·692, MAPE = 15·982, BIC = 5·265), which also showed non-significant autocorrelations in the residuals of the model (P = 0·893). The forecast incidence values of the ARIMA (1,0,1) × (0,1,0)12 model from July to December 2014 were 4103-9987, which were proximate forecasts. The ARIMA model could be applied to forecast HMFD incidence trend and provide support for HMFD prevention and control. Further observations should be carried out continually into the time sequence, and the parameters of the models could be adjusted because HMFD incidence will not be absolutely stationary in the future.

  16. Cholestasis sepsis at neonatology ward and neonatal Intensive Care Unit Cipto Mangunkusumo Hospital 2007 : incidence, mortality rate and associated risk factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kadim S. Bachtiar

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available Cholestatic jaundice represents serious pathological condition. Septic-cholestasis is a kind of hepato-cellular cholestasis that occured during or after sepsis caused by biliary flow obstruction. This is a cohort study from February to June 2007 on neonatal sepsis patients at Neonatology ward Department of Child Health Faculty of Medicine University of Indonesia-Cipto Mangunkusumo General National Hospital. Aim of this study is to find out the incidence of intrahepatic cholestasis in neonatal sepsis, associated risk factors, and mortality rate in neonatal cholestasis-sepsis. From 138 neonatal sepsis patients, the incidence of intrahepatic cholestasis is 65.9%. None of the risk factors tested in this study showed statistically significant result. Mortality rate of neonatal cholestasis-sepsis is 52.8%. (Med J Indones 2008; 17: 107-13Keywords: cholestasis intrahepatic, neonatal sepsis, cholestasis sepsis, conjugated hyperbilirubinemia

  17. Radiation-Induced Breast Cancer Incidence and Mortality From Digital Mammography Screening: A Modeling Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miglioretti, Diana L; Lange, Jane; van den Broek, Jeroen J; Lee, Christoph I; van Ravesteyn, Nicolien T; Ritley, Dominique; Kerlikowske, Karla; Fenton, Joshua J; Melnikow, Joy; de Koning, Harry J; Hubbard, Rebecca A

    2016-02-16

    Estimates of risk for radiation-induced breast cancer from mammography screening have not considered variation in dose exposure or diagnostic work-up after abnormal screening results. To estimate distributions of radiation-induced breast cancer incidence and mortality from digital mammography screening while considering exposure from screening and diagnostic mammography and dose variation among women. 2 simulation-modeling approaches. U.S. population. Women aged 40 to 74 years. Annual or biennial digital mammography screening from age 40, 45, or 50 years until age 74 years. Lifetime breast cancer deaths averted (benefits) and radiation-induced breast cancer incidence and mortality (harms) per 100,000 women screened. Annual screening of 100,000 women aged 40 to 74 years was projected to induce 125 breast cancer cases (95% CI, 88 to 178) leading to 16 deaths (CI, 11 to 23), relative to 968 breast cancer deaths averted by early detection from screening. Women exposed at the 95th percentile were projected to develop 246 cases of radiation-induced breast cancer leading to 32 deaths per 100,000 women. Women with large breasts requiring extra views for complete examination (8% of population) were projected to have greater radiation-induced breast cancer risk (266 cancer cases and 35 deaths per 100,000 women) than other women (113 cancer cases and 15 deaths per 100,000 women). Biennial screening starting at age 50 years reduced risk for radiation-induced cancer 5-fold. Life-years lost from radiation-induced breast cancer could not be estimated. Radiation-induced breast cancer incidence and mortality from digital mammography screening are affected by dose variability from screening, resultant diagnostic work-up, initiation age, and screening frequency. Women with large breasts may have a greater risk for radiation-induced breast cancer. Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality, U.S. Preventive Services Task Force, National Cancer Institute.

  18. Global incidence and case fatality rate of pulmonary embolism following major surgery: a protocol for a systematic review and meta-analysis of cohort studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Temgoua, Mazou N; Tochie, Joel Noutakdie; Noubiap, Jean Jacques; Agbor, Valirie Ndip; Danwang, Celestin; Endomba, Francky Teddy A; Nkemngu, Njinkeng J

    2017-12-04

    Pulmonary embolism (PE) is a life-threatening condition common after major surgery. Although the high incidence (0.3-30%) and mortality rate (16.9-31%) of PE in patients undergoing major surgical procedures is apparent from findings of contemporary observational studies, there is a lack of a summary and meta-analysis data on the epidemiology of postoperative PE in this same regard. Hence, we propose to conduct the first systematic review to summarise existing data on the global incidence, determinants and case fatality rate of PE following major surgery. Electronic databases including MEDLINE, EMBASE, SCOPUS, WHO global health library (including LILACS), Web of Science and Google scholar from inception to April 30, 2017, will be searched for cohort studies reporting on the incidence, determinants and case fatality rate of PE occurring after major surgery. Data from grey literature will also be assessed. Two investigators will independently perform study selection and data extraction. Included studies will be evaluated for risk of bias. Appropriate meta-analytic methods will be used to pool incidence and case fatality rate estimates from studies with identical features, globally and by subgroups of major surgical procedures. Random-effects and risk ratio with 95% confidence interval will be used to summarise determinants and predictors of mortality of PE in patients undergoing major surgery. This systematic review and meta-analysis will provide the most up-to-date epidemiology of PE in patients undergoing major surgery to inform health authorities and identify further research topics based on the remaining knowledge gaps. PROSPERO CRD42017065126.

  19. Second primary pancreatic ductal carcinoma in the remnant pancreas after pancreatectomy for pancreatic ductal carcinoma: High cumulative incidence rates at 5 years after pancreatectomy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ishida, Jun; Toyama, Hirochika; Matsumoto, Ippei; Asari, Sadaki; Goto, Tadahiro; Terai, Sachio; Nanno, Yoshihide; Yamashita, Azusa; Mizumoto, Takuya; Ueda, Yuki; Kido, Masahiro; Ajiki, Tetsuo; Fukumoto, Takumi; Ku, Yonson

    2016-01-01

    The aim of this study was to determine the incidence rate and clinical features of second primary pancreatic ductal carcinoma (SPPDC) in the remnant pancreas after pancreatectomy for pancreatic ductal carcinoma (PDC). Data of patients undergoing R0 resection for PDC at a single high-volume center were reviewed. SPPDC was defined as a tumor in the remnant pancreas after R0 resection for PDC, and SPPDC met at least one of the following conditions: 1) the time interval between initial pancreatectomy and development of a new tumor was 3 years or more; 2) the new tumor was not located in contact with the pancreatic stump. We investigated the clinical features and treatment outcomes of patients with SPPDC. This study included 130 patients who underwent surgical resection for PDC between 2005 and 2014. Six (4.6%) patients developed SPPDC. The cumulative 3- and 5-year incidence rates were 3.1% and 17.7%, respectively. Four patients underwent remnant pancreatectomy for SPPDC. They were diagnosed with the disease in stage IIA or higher and developed recurrence within 6 months after remnant pancreatectomy. One patient received carbon ion radiotherapy and survived 45 months. One patient refused treatment and died 19 months after the diagnosis of SPPDC. The incidence rate of SPPDC is not negligible, and the cumulative 5-year incidence rate of SPPDC is markedly high. Post-operative surveillance of the remnant pancreas is critical for the early detection of SPPDC, even in long-term survivors after PDC resection. Copyright © 2016 IAP and EPC. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. Prevalence, incidence rates and persistence of contact allergy and allergic contact dermatitis in The Odense Adolescence Cohort Study: a 15-year follow-up

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mortz, C. G.; Bindslev-Jensen, C.; Andersen, Klaus Ejner

    2013-01-01

    BACKGROUND: A cohort of 1501 unselected 8th grade schoolchildren was established 15 years ago with the aim to follow the course of contact allergy and allergic contact dermatitis (ACD) from school age into adult life. To date no studies have evaluated incidence rates and persistence of contact al...... the most common contact allergen, and new sensitizations occurred despite the European Union nickel regulation. Fragrance mix I was a poor marker for history of eczematous skin reaction to perfumed products....

  1. The effect of a change in mutation rate on the incidence of dominant and X-linked recessive disorders in man

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Childs, J.D.

    1981-01-01

    In order to assess the impact on man of a sustained change in mutation rate that might be caused by ionizing radiation or a chemical mutagen in the environment, it is important to determine the current incidence of genetic disease, the rate at which deleterious mutations arise and the number of generations that mutations persist before eliminated by selection. From these data it should be possible to estimate both the increase in genetic disease in the first generation following the increase in mutation rate, and the rate at which a new equilibrium between mutation and selection would occur. In this paper the results of a survey to determine birth frequency, mutation rate and reproductive fitness for each of the important dominant and X-linked recessive disorders are described. It is estimated that these disorders affect about 0.6% of live-born individuals, including 0.1% of live-borns who carry a newly-arising mutation. (orig.)

  2. Martingale Regressions for a Continuous Time Model of Exchange Rates

    OpenAIRE

    Guo, Zi-Yi

    2017-01-01

    One of the daunting problems in international finance is the weak explanatory power of existing theories of the nominal exchange rates, the so-called “foreign exchange rate determination puzzle”. We propose a continuous-time model to study the impact of order flow on foreign exchange rates. The model is estimated by a newly developed econometric tool based on a time-change sampling from calendar to volatility time. The estimation results indicate that the effect of order flow on exchange rate...

  3. Mathematical modeling of zika virus disease with nonlinear incidence and optimal control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goswami, Naba Kumar; Srivastav, Akhil Kumar; Ghosh, Mini; Shanmukha, B.

    2018-04-01

    The Zika virus was first discovered in a rhesus monkey in the Zika Forest of Uganda in 1947, and it was isolated from humans in Nigeria in 1952. Zika virus disease is primarily a mosquito-borne disease, which is transmitted to human primarily through the bite of an infected Aedes species mosquito. However, there is documented evidence of sexual transmission of this disease too. In this paper, a nonlinear mathematical model for Zika virus by considering nonlinear incidence is formulated and analyzed. The equilibria and the basic reproduction number (R0) of the model are found. The stability of the different equilibria of the model is discussed in detail. When the basic reproduction number R0 1, we have endemic equilibrium which is locally stable under some restriction on parameters. Further this model is extended to optimal control model and is analyzed by using Pontryagin’s Maximum Principle. It has been observed that optimal control plays a significant role in reducing the number of zika infectives. Finally, numerical simulation is performed to illustrate the analytical findings.

  4. EXCHANGE-RATES FORECASTING: EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING TECHNIQUES AND ARIMA MODELS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dezsi Eva

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Exchange rates forecasting is, and has been a challenging task in finance. Statistical and econometrical models are widely used in analysis and forecasting of foreign exchange rates. This paper investigates the behavior of daily exchange rates of the Romanian Leu against the Euro, United States Dollar, British Pound, Japanese Yen, Chinese Renminbi and the Russian Ruble. Smoothing techniques are generated and compared with each other. These models include the Simple Exponential Smoothing technique, as the Double Exponential Smoothing technique, the Simple Holt-Winters, the Additive Holt-Winters, namely the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model.

  5. Comparative trends in incident fracture rates for all long-term care and community-dwelling seniors in Ontario, Canada, 2002-2012.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papaioannou, A; Kennedy, C C; Ioannidis, G; Cameron, C; Croxford, R; Adachi, J D; Mursleen, S; Jaglal, S

    2016-03-01

    In this population-based study, we compared incident fracture rates in long-term care (LTC) versus community seniors between 2002 and 2012. Hip fracture rates declined more rapidly in LTC than in the community. An excess burden of fractures occurred in LTC for hip, pelvis, and humerus fractures in men and hip fractures only in women. This study compares trends in incident fracture rates between long-term care (LTC) and community-dwelling seniors ≥65 years, 2002-2012. This is a population-based cohort study using administrative data. Measurements were age/sex-adjusted incident fracture rates and rate ratios (RR) and annual percent change (APC). Over 11 years, hip fracture rates had a marked decline occurring more rapidly in LTC (APC, -3.49 (95% confidence interval (CI), -3.97, -3.01)) compared with the community (APC, -2.93 (95% CI, -3.28, -2.57); p community (RRs: women, 1.55 (95% CI, 1.45, 1.67); men, 2.18 (95% CI, 1.93, 2.47)). Higher rates of pelvis (RR, 1.48 (95% CI, 1.22, 1.80)) and humerus (RR, 1.40 (95% CI, 1.07, 1.84)) fractures were observed in LTC men, not women. In women, wrist (RR, 0.76 (95% CI, 0.71, 0.81)) and spine (RR, 0.52 (95% CI, 0.45, 0.61)) fracture rates were lower in LTC than the community; in men, spine (RR, 0.75 (95% CI, 0.57, 0.98) but not wrist fracture (RR, 0.91 (95% CI, 0.67, 1.23)) rates were significantly lower in LTC than the community. Previous studies in the community have shown declining hip fracture rates over time, also demonstrated in our study but at a more rapid rate in LTC. Rates of humerus and wrist fractures also declined. An excess burden of fractures in LTC occurred for hip fractures in women and for hip, pelvis, and humerus fractures in men.

  6. A systematic review of breast cancer incidence risk prediction models with meta-analysis of their performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meads, Catherine; Ahmed, Ikhlaaq; Riley, Richard D

    2012-04-01

    A risk prediction model is a statistical tool for estimating the probability that a currently healthy individual with specific risk factors will develop a condition in the future such as breast cancer. Reliably accurate prediction models can inform future disease burdens, health policies and individual decisions. Breast cancer prediction models containing modifiable risk factors, such as alcohol consumption, BMI or weight, condom use, exogenous hormone use and physical activity, are of particular interest to women who might be considering how to reduce their risk of breast cancer and clinicians developing health policies to reduce population incidence rates. We performed a systematic review to identify and evaluate the performance of prediction models for breast cancer that contain modifiable factors. A protocol was developed and a sensitive search in databases including MEDLINE and EMBASE was conducted in June 2010. Extensive use was made of reference lists. Included were any articles proposing or validating a breast cancer prediction model in a general female population, with no language restrictions. Duplicate data extraction and quality assessment were conducted. Results were summarised qualitatively, and where possible meta-analysis of model performance statistics was undertaken. The systematic review found 17 breast cancer models, each containing a different but often overlapping set of modifiable and other risk factors, combined with an estimated baseline risk that was also often different. Quality of reporting was generally poor, with characteristics of included participants and fitted model results often missing. Only four models received independent validation in external data, most notably the 'Gail 2' model with 12 validations. None of the models demonstrated consistently outstanding ability to accurately discriminate between those who did and those who did not develop breast cancer. For example, random-effects meta-analyses of the performance of the

  7. Predicting changes in reported notifiable disease rates for New Zealand using a SIR modelling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    McBride, Graham; Slaney, David; Tait, Andrew

    2013-04-01

    The New Zealand health system has defined as 'notifiable' over 50 diseases. Of these campylobacteriosis is the most commonly reported comprising 41% of all notifications in 2011 (presently about 150 illness cases per 100,000 population per annum). Furthermore, the incidence of this mild illness, which is potentially waterborne, is under-reported by at least an order-of-magnitude. Increased downstream pathogen loads and/or disease incidence have been found to be associated with increased rainfall, particularly in agricultural landscapes. Therefore, given the predominance of agricultural land uses in New Zealand, transmission and exposure to its agent (thermotolerant Campylobacter bacteria) may be affected by changing rainfall and temperature patterns associated with climate change. Reporting rates for other potentially water-borne zoonoses are also noticeable (for example, the reported rate for cryptosporidiosis for 2011 was 14 per 100,000 population). The distribution of Cryptosporidium oocysts in the environment may be influenced by climate change because it has often been implicated in drinking-water contamination, and heavy rainfall events have been found to be associated with increased pathogen loads in rivers and disease incidence. Given this background, which may also be applicable to other countries with agriculturally-dominated landscapes, a New Zealand study was initiated to develop a decision-support system for the projected effects of climate change on a selected suite of environmentally-transmitted pathogens, including Campylobacter and Cryptosporodium oocysts. Herein we report on the manner in which a linear SIR (Susceptible-Ill-Recovered) model previously developed for campylobacteriosis can be extended to cryptosporidiosis, applied to changes in pathogen contact rate and hence reported illness, and coupled to climate change projections associated with different greenhouse gas emission scenarios. The resulting SIR model outputs provided projected

  8. Resveratrol Reduces the Incidence of Portal Vein System Thrombosis after Splenectomy in a Rat Fibrosis Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Meng; Xue, Wanli; Ma, Zhenhua; Bai, Jigang

    2016-01-01

    Purpose. To investigate the preventive effect of resveratrol (RES) on the formation of portal vein system thrombosis (PVST) in a rat fibrosis model. Methods. A total of 64 male SD rats, weighing 200–300 g, were divided into five groups: Sham operation, Splenectomy I, Splenectomy II, RES, and low molecular weight heparin (LMWH), with the former two groups as nonfibrosis controls. Blood samples were subjected to biochemical assays. Platelet apoptosis was measured by flow cytometry. All rats were euthanized for PVST detection one week after operation. Results. No PVST occurred in nonfibrosis controls. Compared to Splenectomy II, the incidences of PVST in RES and LMWH groups were significantly decreased (both p Splenectomy II (all p splenectomy in cirrhotic rat. Regulation of platelet function and induction of platelet apoptosis might be the underlying mechanisms. PMID:27433290

  9. Research of an emergency medical system for mass casualty incidents in Shanghai, China: a system dynamics model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Wenya; Lv, Yipeng; Hu, Chaoqun; Liu, Xu; Chen, Haiping; Xue, Chen; Zhang, Lulu

    2018-01-01

    Emergency medical system for mass casualty incidents (EMS-MCIs) is a global issue. However, China lacks such studies extremely, which cannot meet the requirement of rapid decision-support system. This study aims to realize modeling EMS-MCIs in Shanghai, to improve mass casualty incident (MCI) rescue efficiency in China, and to provide a possible method of making rapid rescue decisions during MCIs. This study established a system dynamics (SD) model of EMS-MCIs using the Vensim DSS program. Intervention scenarios were designed as adjusting scales of MCIs, allocation of ambulances, allocation of emergency medical staff, and efficiency of organization and command. Mortality increased with the increasing scale of MCIs, medical rescue capability of hospitals was relatively good, but the efficiency of organization and command was poor, and the prehospital time was too long. Mortality declined significantly when increasing ambulances and improving the efficiency of organization and command; triage and on-site first-aid time were shortened if increasing the availability of emergency medical staff. The effect was the most evident when 2,000 people were involved in MCIs; however, the influence was very small under the scale of 5,000 people. The keys to decrease the mortality of MCIs were shortening the prehospital time and improving the efficiency of organization and command. For small-scale MCIs, improving the utilization rate of health resources was important in decreasing the mortality. For large-scale MCIs, increasing the number of ambulances and emergency medical professionals was the core to decrease prehospital time and mortality. For super-large-scale MCIs, increasing health resources was the premise.

  10. Pollutant source identification model for water pollution incidents in small straight rivers based on genetic algorithm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Shou-ping; Xin, Xiao-kang

    2017-07-01

    Identification of pollutant sources for river pollution incidents is an important and difficult task in the emergency rescue, and an intelligent optimization method can effectively compensate for the weakness of traditional methods. An intelligent model for pollutant source identification has been established using the basic genetic algorithm (BGA) as an optimization search tool and applying an analytic solution formula of one-dimensional unsteady water quality equation to construct the objective function. Experimental tests show that the identification model is effective and efficient: the model can accurately figure out the pollutant amounts or positions no matter single pollution source or multiple sources. Especially when the population size of BGA is set as 10, the computing results are sound agree with analytic results for a single source amount and position identification, the relative errors are no more than 5 %. For cases of multi-point sources and multi-variable, there are some errors in computing results for the reasons that there exist many possible combinations of the pollution sources. But, with the help of previous experience to narrow the search scope, the relative errors of the identification results are less than 5 %, which proves the established source identification model can be used to direct emergency responses.

  11. Can producer currency pricing models generate volatile real exchange rates?

    OpenAIRE

    Povoledo, L.

    2012-01-01

    If the elasticities of substitution between traded and nontraded and between Home and Foreign traded goods are sufficiently low, then the real exchange rate generated by a model with full producer currency pricing is as volatile as in the data.

  12. Improved air ventilation rate estimation based on a statistical model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brabec, M.; Jilek, K.

    2004-01-01

    A new approach to air ventilation rate estimation from CO measurement data is presented. The approach is based on a state-space dynamic statistical model, allowing for quick and efficient estimation. Underlying computations are based on Kalman filtering, whose practical software implementation is rather easy. The key property is the flexibility of the model, allowing various artificial regimens of CO level manipulation to be treated. The model is semi-parametric in nature and can efficiently handle time-varying ventilation rate. This is a major advantage, compared to some of the methods which are currently in practical use. After a formal introduction of the statistical model, its performance is demonstrated on real data from routine measurements. It is shown how the approach can be utilized in a more complex situation of major practical relevance, when time-varying air ventilation rate and radon entry rate are to be estimated simultaneously from concurrent radon and CO measurements

  13. Modelling Exchange Rate Volatility by Macroeconomic Fundamentals in Pakistan

    OpenAIRE

    Munazza Jabeen; Saud Ahmad Khan

    2014-01-01

    What drives volatility in foreign exchange market in Pakistan? This paper undertakes an analysis of modelling exchange rate volatility in Pakistan by potential macroeconomic fundamentals well-known in the economic literature. For this, monthly data on Pak Rupee exchange rates in the terms of major currencies (US Dollar, British Pound, Canadian Dollar and Japanese Yen) and macroeconomics fundamentals is taken from April, 1982 to November, 2011. The results show thatthe PKR-USD exchange rate vo...

  14. Elevated incidence of dental caries in a mouse model of cystic fibrosis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcelo A Catalán

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Dental caries is the single most prevalent and costly infectious disease worldwide, affecting more than 90% of the population in the U.S. The development of dental cavities requires the colonization of the tooth surface by acid-producing bacteria, such as Streptococcus mutans. Saliva bicarbonate constitutes the main buffering system which neutralizes the pH fall generated by the plaque bacteria during sugar metabolism. We found that the saliva pH is severely decreased in a mouse model of cystic fibrosis disease (CF. Given the close relationship between pH and caries development, we hypothesized that caries incidence might be elevated in the mouse CF model.We induced carious lesions in CF and wildtype mice by infecting their oral cavity with S. mutans, a well-studied cariogenic bacterium. After infection, the mice were fed a high-sucrose diet for 5 weeks (diet 2000. The mice were then euthanized and their jaws removed for caries scoring and bacterial counting. A dramatic increase in caries and severity of lesions scores were apparent in CF mice compared to their wildtype littermates. The elevated incidence of carious lesions correlated with a striking increase in the S. mutans viable population in dental plaque (20-fold increase in CF vs. wildtype mice; p value < 0.003; t test. We also found that the pilocarpine-stimulated saliva bicarbonate concentration was significantly reduced in CF mice (16 ± 2 mM vs. 31 ± 2 mM, CF and wildtype mice, respectively; p value < 0.01; t test.Considering that bicarbonate is the most important pH buffering system in saliva, and the adherence and survival of aciduric bacteria such as S. mutans are enhanced at low pH values, we speculate that the decrease in the bicarbonate content and pH buffering of the saliva is at least partially responsible for the increased severity of lesions observed in the CF mouse.

  15. Growth rate in the dynamical dark energy models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Avsajanishvili, Olga; Arkhipova, Natalia A.; Samushia, Lado; Kahniashvili, Tina

    2014-01-01

    Dark energy models with a slowly rolling cosmological scalar field provide a popular alternative to the standard, time-independent cosmological constant model. We study the simultaneous evolution of background expansion and growth in the scalar field model with the Ratra-Peebles self-interaction potential. We use recent measurements of the linear growth rate and the baryon acoustic oscillation peak positions to constrain the model parameter α that describes the steepness of the scalar field potential. (orig.)

  16. Growth rate in the dynamical dark energy models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Avsajanishvili, Olga; Arkhipova, Natalia A; Samushia, Lado; Kahniashvili, Tina

    Dark energy models with a slowly rolling cosmological scalar field provide a popular alternative to the standard, time-independent cosmological constant model. We study the simultaneous evolution of background expansion and growth in the scalar field model with the Ratra-Peebles self-interaction potential. We use recent measurements of the linear growth rate and the baryon acoustic oscillation peak positions to constrain the model parameter [Formula: see text] that describes the steepness of the scalar field potential.

  17. Analysis of sensory ratings data with cumulative link models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Rune Haubo Bojesen; Brockhoff, Per B.

    2013-01-01

    Examples of categorical rating scales include discrete preference, liking and hedonic rating scales. Data obtained on these scales are often analyzed with normal linear regression methods or with omnibus Pearson chi2 tests. In this paper we propose to use cumulative link models that allow for reg...

  18. Trauma centers with higher rates of angiography have a lesser incidence of splenectomy in the management of blunt splenic injury.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Capecci, Louis M; Jeremitsky, Elan; Smith, R Stephen; Philp, Frances

    2015-10-01

    Nonoperative management (NOM) for blunt splenic injury (BSI) is well-established. Angiography (ANGIO) has been shown to improve success rates with NOM. Protocols for NOM are not standardized and vary widely between centers. We hypothesized that trauma centers that performed ANGIO at a greater rate would demonstrate decreased rates of splenectomy compared with trauma centers that used ANGIO less frequently. A large, multicenter, statewide database (Pennsylvania Trauma Systems Foundation) from 2007 to 2011 was used to generate the study cohort of patients with BSI (age ≥ 13). The cohort was divided into 2 populations based on admission to centers with high (≥13%) or low (Splenectomy rates were then compared between the 2 groups, and multivariable logistic regression for predictors of splenectomy (failed NOM) were also performed. The overall rate of splenectomy in the entire cohort was 21.0% (1,120 of 5,333 BSI patients). The high ANGIO group had a lesser rate of splenectoy compared with the low ANGIO group (19% vs 24%; P splenectomy compared with low ANGIO centers (odds ratio, 0.68; 95% CI 0.58-0.80; P splenectomy rates compared with centers with lesser rate of ANGIO. Inclusion of angiographic protocols for NOM of BSI should be considered strongly. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Rate-control algorithms testing by using video source model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Belyaev, Evgeny; Turlikov, Andrey; Ukhanova, Anna

    2008-01-01

    In this paper the method of rate control algorithms testing by the use of video source model is suggested. The proposed method allows to significantly improve algorithms testing over the big test set.......In this paper the method of rate control algorithms testing by the use of video source model is suggested. The proposed method allows to significantly improve algorithms testing over the big test set....

  20. A MODEL OF RATING FOR BANKS IN ROMANIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    POPA ANAMARIA

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract.In the paper the authors present a model of rating for the banking system. Thus we took into account the records of 11 banks in Romania, based on annual financial reports. The model classified the banks in seven categories according with notes used by Standard Poor’s and Moody’s rating Agencies.

  1. A nonparametric mixture model for cure rate estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, Y; Dear, K B

    2000-03-01

    Nonparametric methods have attracted less attention than their parametric counterparts for cure rate analysis. In this paper, we study a general nonparametric mixture model. The proportional hazards assumption is employed in modeling the effect of covariates on the failure time of patients who are not cured. The EM algorithm, the marginal likelihood approach, and multiple imputations are employed to estimate parameters of interest in the model. This model extends models and improves estimation methods proposed by other researchers. It also extends Cox's proportional hazards regression model by allowing a proportion of event-free patients and investigating covariate effects on that proportion. The model and its estimation method are investigated by simulations. An application to breast cancer data, including comparisons with previous analyses using a parametric model and an existing nonparametric model by other researchers, confirms the conclusions from the parametric model but not those from the existing nonparametric model.

  2. Incidents analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Francois, P.

    1996-01-01

    We undertook a study programme at the end of 1991. To start with, we performed some exploratory studies aimed at learning some preliminary lessons on this type of analysis: Assessment of the interest of probabilistic incident analysis; possibility of using PSA scenarios; skills and resources required. At the same time, EPN created a working group whose assignment was to define a new approach for analysis of incidents on NPPs. This working group gave thought to both aspects of Operating Feedback that EPN wished to improve: Analysis of significant incidents; analysis of potential consequences. We took part in the work of this group, and for the second aspects, we proposed a method based on an adaptation of the event-tree method in order to establish a link between existing PSA models and actual incidents. Since PSA provides an exhaustive database of accident scenarios applicable to the two most common types of units in France, they are obviously of interest for this sort of analysis. With this method we performed some incident analyses, and at the same time explores some methods employed abroad, particularly ASP (Accident Sequence Precursor, a method used by the NRC). Early in 1994 EDF began a systematic analysis programme. The first, transient phase will set up methods and an organizational structure. 7 figs

  3. Incidents analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Francois, P

    1997-12-31

    We undertook a study programme at the end of 1991. To start with, we performed some exploratory studies aimed at learning some preliminary lessons on this type of analysis: Assessment of the interest of probabilistic incident analysis; possibility of using PSA scenarios; skills and resources required. At the same time, EPN created a working group whose assignment was to define a new approach for analysis of incidents on NPPs. This working group gave thought to both aspects of Operating Feedback that EPN wished to improve: Analysis of significant incidents; analysis of potential consequences. We took part in the work of this group, and for the second aspects, we proposed a method based on an adaptation of the event-tree method in order to establish a link between existing PSA models and actual incidents. Since PSA provides an exhaustive database of accident scenarios applicable to the two most common types of units in France, they are obviously of interest for this sort of analysis. With this method we performed some incident analyses, and at the same time explores some methods employed abroad, particularly ASP (Accident Sequence Precursor, a method used by the NRC). Early in 1994 EDF began a systematic analysis programme. The first, transient phase will set up methods and an organizational structure. 7 figs.

  4. Trends in Breast Cancer Incidence Rates by Age and Stage at Diagnosis in Gharbiah, Egypt, over 10 Years (1999–2008

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kelly A. Hirko

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. This study was undertaken to evaluate trends in breast cancer incidence in Egypt from 1999 to 2008 and to make projections for breast cancer occurrence for the years 2009–2015. Patients and Methods. We utilized joinpoint regression and average annual percent change (AAPC measures with 95% confidence intervals (CI to describe the trends in breast cancer incidence rates from the Gharbiah Cancer Registry by age and stage at diagnosis and to estimate expected breast cancer caseloads for 2009–2015. Results. From 1999 to 2008, the AAPC in breast cancer incidence rates in Gharbiah significantly increased among women 50 years and older and among localized tumors (AAPC %, 95% CI, 3.1% to 8.0%. Our results predict a significant increase in breast cancer caseloads from 2009 to 2015 among women aged 30–39 (AAPC %, 95% CI, 0.9% to 1.1% and among women aged 40–49 years (AAPC %, 95% CI, 1.0% to 2.6%. Conclusion. These results have important implications for allocating limited resources, managing treatment needs, and exploring the consequences of prior interventions and/or changing risk factors in Egypt and other developing countries at the same stages of demographic and health transitions.

  5. Associations of selected bedding types with incidence rates of subclinical and clinical mastitis in primiparous Holstein dairy cows.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rowbotham, R F; Ruegg, P L

    2016-06-01

    The objective of this observational study was to determine the association of exposure to selected bedding types with incidence of subclinical (SM) and clinical mastitis (CM) in primiparous Holstein dairy cows housed in identical pens at a single facility. At parturition, primiparous cows were randomly assigned to pens containing freestalls with 1 of 4 bedding materials: (1) deep-bedded new sand (NES, n=27 cows), (2) deep-bedded recycled sand (RS, n=25 cows), (3) deep-bedded manure solids (DBMS, n=31 cows), and (4) shallow-bedded manure solids over foam-core mattresses (SBMS, n=26 cows). For 12mo, somatic cell counts of quarter milk samples were determined every 28d and duplicate quarter milk samples were collected for microbiological analysis from all quarters with SM (defined as somatic cell count >200,000 cells/mL). During this period, duplicate quarter milk samples were also collected for microbial analysis from all cases of CM. For an additional 16mo, cases of CM were recorded; however, no samples were collected. Quarter days at risk (62,980) were distributed among bedding types and most quarters were enrolled for >150d. Of 135 cases of SM, 63% resulted in nonsignificant growth and 87% of recovered pathogens (n=33) were identified as coagulase-negative staphylococci. The distribution of etiologies of pathogens recovered from cases of SM was associated with bedding type. Coagulase-negative staphylococci were recovered from 12, 38, 11, and 46% of quarters with SM from cows in pens containing NES, RS, DBMS, and SBMS, respectively. A result of nonsignificant growth was obtained for 81, 59, 89, and 46% of quarters with SM from cows in pens containing NES, RS, DBMS, and SBMS, respectively. Quarters of primiparous cows bedded with NES tended to have greater survival time to incidence of CM than quarters of primiparous cows bedded with RS or DBMS. Copyright © 2016 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Micromechanical modeling of rate-dependent behavior of Connective tissues.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fallah, A; Ahmadian, M T; Firozbakhsh, K; Aghdam, M M

    2017-03-07

    In this paper, a constitutive and micromechanical model for prediction of rate-dependent behavior of connective tissues (CTs) is presented. Connective tissues are considered as nonlinear viscoelastic material. The rate-dependent behavior of CTs is incorporated into model using the well-known quasi-linear viscoelasticity (QLV) theory. A planar wavy representative volume element (RVE) is considered based on the tissue microstructure histological evidences. The presented model parameters are identified based on the available experiments in the literature. The presented constitutive model introduced to ABAQUS by means of UMAT subroutine. Results show that, monotonic uniaxial test predictions of the presented model at different strain rates for rat tail tendon (RTT) and human patellar tendon (HPT) are in good agreement with experimental data. Results of incremental stress-relaxation test are also presented to investigate both instantaneous and viscoelastic behavior of connective tissues. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. A model of clearance rate regulation in mussels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fréchette, Marcel

    2012-10-01

    Clearance rate regulation has been modelled as an instantaneous response to food availability, independent of the internal state of the animals. This view is incompatible with latent effects during ontogeny and phenotypic flexibility in clearance rate. Internal-state regulation of clearance rate is required to account for these patterns. Here I develop a model of internal-state based regulation of clearance rate. External factors such as suspended sediments are included in the model. To assess the relative merits of instantaneous regulation and internal-state regulation, I modelled blue mussel clearance rate and growth using a DEB model. In the usual standard feeding module, feeding is governed by a Holling's Type II response to food concentration. In the internal-state feeding module, gill ciliary activity and thus clearance rate are driven by internal reserve level. Factors such as suspended sediments were not included in the simulations. The two feeding modules were compared on the basis of their ability to capture the impact of latent effects, of environmental heterogeneity in food abundance and of physiological flexibility on clearance rate and individual growth. The Holling feeding module was unable to capture the effect of any of these sources of variability. In contrast, the internal-state feeding module did so without any modification or ad hoc calibration. Latent effects, however, appeared transient. With simple annual variability in temperature and food concentration, the relationship between clearance rate and food availability predicted by the internal-state feeding module was quite similar to that observed in Norwegian fjords. I conclude that in contrast with the usual Holling feeding module, internal-state regulation of clearance rate is consistent with well-documented growth and clearance rate patterns.

  8. Equivalence of interest rate models and lattice gases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pirjol, Dan

    2012-04-01

    We consider the class of short rate interest rate models for which the short rate is proportional to the exponential of a Gaussian Markov process x(t) in the terminal measure r(t)=a(t)exp[x(t)]. These models include the Black-Derman-Toy and Black-Karasinski models in the terminal measure. We show that such interest rate models are equivalent to lattice gases with attractive two-body interaction, V(t(1),t(2))=-Cov[x(t(1)),x(t(2))]. We consider in some detail the Black-Karasinski model with x(t) as an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, and show that it is similar to a lattice gas model considered by Kac and Helfand, with attractive long-range two-body interactions, V(x,y)=-α(e(-γ|x-y|)-e(-γ(x+y))). An explicit solution for the model is given as a sum over the states of the lattice gas, which is used to show that the model has a phase transition similar to that found previously in the Black-Derman-Toy model in the terminal measure.

  9. On rate-state and Coulomb failure models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gomberg, J.; Beeler, N.; Blanpied, M.

    2000-01-01

    We examine the predictions of Coulomb failure stress and rate-state frictional models. We study the change in failure time (clock advance) Δt due to stress step perturbations (i.e., coseismic static stress increases) added to "background" stressing at a constant rate (i.e., tectonic loading) at time t0. The predictability of Δt implies a predictable change in seismicity rate r(t)/r0, testable using earthquake catalogs, where r0 is the constant rate resulting from tectonic stressing. Models of r(t)/r0, consistent with general properties of aftershock sequences, must predict an Omori law seismicity decay rate, a sequence duration that is less than a few percent of the mainshock cycle time and a return directly to the background rate. A Coulomb model requires that a fault remains locked during loading, that failure occur instantaneously, and that Δt is independent of t0. These characteristics imply an instantaneous infinite seismicity rate increase of zero duration. Numerical calculations of r(t)/r0 for different state evolution laws show that aftershocks occur on faults extremely close to failure at the mainshock origin time, that these faults must be "Coulomb-like," and that the slip evolution law can be precluded. Real aftershock population characteristics also may constrain rate-state constitutive parameters; a may be lower than laboratory values, the stiffness may be high, and/or normal stress may be lower than lithostatic. We also compare Coulomb and rate-state models theoretically. Rate-state model fault behavior becomes more Coulomb-like as constitutive parameter a decreases relative to parameter b. This is because the slip initially decelerates, representing an initial healing of fault contacts. The deceleration is more pronounced for smaller a, more closely simulating a locked fault. Even when the rate-state Δt has Coulomb characteristics, its magnitude may differ by some constant dependent on b. In this case, a rate-state model behaves like a modified

  10. Inflation, Exchange Rates and Interest Rates in Ghana: an Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dennis Nchor

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the impact of exchange rate movement and the nominal interest rate on inflation in Ghana. It also looks at the presence of the Fisher Effect and the International Fisher Effect scenarios. It makes use of an autoregressive distributed lag model and an unrestricted error correction model. Ordinary Least Squares regression methods were also employed to determine the presence of the Fischer Effect and the International Fisher Effect. The results from the study show that in the short run a percentage point increase in the level of depreciation of the Ghana cedi leads to an increase in the rate of inflation by 0.20%. A percentage point increase in the level of nominal interest rates however results in a decrease in inflation by 0.98%. Inflation increases by 1.33% for every percentage point increase in the nominal interest rate in the long run. An increase in inflation on the other hand increases the nominal interest rate by 0.51% which demonstrates the partial Fisher effect. A 1% increase in the interest rate differential leads to a depreciation of the Ghana cedi by approximately 1% which indicates the full International Fisher effect.

  11. Retrospective observation on contribution and limitations of screening for breast cancer with mammography in Korea: detection rate of breast cancer and incidence rate of interval cancer of the breast.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Kunsei; Kim, Hyeongsu; Lee, Jung Hyun; Jeong, Hyoseon; Shin, Soon Ae; Han, Taehwa; Seo, Young Lan; Yoo, Youngbum; Nam, Sang Eun; Park, Jong Heon; Park, Yoo Mi

    2016-11-18

    The purpose of this study was to determine the benefits and limitations of screening for breast cancer using mammography. Descriptive design with follow-up was used in the study. Data from breast cancer screening and health insurance claim data were used. The study population consisted of all participants in breast cancer screening from 2009 to 2014. Crude detection rate, positive predictive value and sensitivity and specificity of breast cancer screening and, incidence rate of interval cancer of the breast were calculated. The crude detection rate of breast cancer screening per 100,000 participants increased from 126.3 in 2009 to 182.1 in 2014. The positive predictive value of breast cancer screening per 100,000 positives increased from 741.2 in 2009 to 1,367.9 in 2014. The incidence rate of interval cancer of the breast per 100,000 negatives increased from 51.7 in 2009 to 76.3 in 2014. The sensitivities of screening for breast cancer were 74.6% in 2009 and 75.1% in 2014 and the specificities were 83.1% in 2009 and 85.7% in 2014. To increase the detection rate of breast cancer by breast cancer screening using mammography, the participation rate should be higher and an environment where accurate mammography and reading can be performed and reinforcement of quality control are required. To reduce the incidence rate of interval cancer of the breast, it will be necessary to educate women after their 20s to perform self-examination of the breast once a month regardless of participation in screening for breast cancer.

  12. Effect of low 60Co dose rates on sister chromatid exchange incidence in the benthic worm. Neanthes arenaceodentata

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harrison, F.L.; Rice, D.W. Jr.

    1981-01-01

    The usefulness of sister chromatid exchange (SCE) induction as a measure of low-level radiation effect was examined in a benthic marine worm, Neanthes arenaceodentata. Larvae were exposed to 60 Co radiation for 12 to 24 h at total doses ranging from 0.5 to 309 R and at dose rates from 0.04 to 13 R/h. Animals exposed at intermediate dose rates (0.5, 0.6, 1.25, 2.0, and 2.5 R/h) had SCE frequencies per chromosome about twice that of those receiving no radiation (controls), whereas those exposed at the higher dose rates (7.0 and 13 R/h) had SCE frequencies lower than the controls. Animals exposed at the lower dose rates (0.04 and 0.1 R/h) had lower SCE frequencies than those exposed at intermediate dose rates (and higher SCE frequencies than controls). The length of chromosome pair number one differed among metaphase spreads and was used as an index of chromosome condensation in a given metaphase. Because there is a possibility that chromosome morphology may affect the ability to resolve SCEs, morphology will be monitored in future studies. A preliminary experiment was performed to assess the effects of 2.2 and 11.5 R/h for 24 h on growth and development. Larvae observed at 6 and 17 d after irradiation did not have significantly different numbers of abnormal larvae or survival rates

  13. A Model of Exchange-Rate-Based Stabilization for Turkey

    OpenAIRE

    Ozlem Aytac

    2008-01-01

    The literature on the exchange-rate-based stabilization has focused almost exclusively in Latin America. Many other countries however, such as Egypt, Lebanon and Turkey; have undertaken this sort of programs in the last 10-15 years. I depart from the existing literature by developing a model specifically for the 2000-2001 heterodox exchange-rate-based stabilization program in Turkey: When the government lowers the rate of crawl, the rate of domestic credit creation is set equal to the lower r...

  14. Modeling baroreflex regulation of heart rate during orthostatic stress

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olufsen, Mette; Tran, Hien T.; Ottesen, Johnny T.

    2006-01-01

    . The model uses blood pressure measured in the finger as an input to model heart rate dynamics in response to changes in baroreceptor nerve firing rate, sympathetic and parasympathetic responses, vestibulo-sympathetic reflex, and concentrations of norepinephrine and acetylcholine. We formulate an inverse...... in healthy and hypertensive elderly people the hysteresis loop shifts to higher blood pressure values and its area is diminished. Finally, for hypertensive elderly people the hysteresis loop is generally not closed indicating that during postural change from sitting to standing, the blood pressure resettles......During orthostatic stress, arterial and cardiopulmonary baroreflexes play a key role in maintaining arterial pressure by regulating heart rate. This study, presents a mathematical model that can predict the dynamics of heart rate regulation in response to postural change from sitting to standing...

  15. An Adjusted Discount Rate Model for Fuel Cycle Cost Estimation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, S. K.; Kang, G. B.; Ko, W. I. [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2013-10-15

    Owing to the diverse nuclear fuel cycle options available, including direct disposal, it is necessary to select the optimum nuclear fuel cycles in consideration of the political and social environments as well as the technical stability and economic efficiency of each country. Economic efficiency is therefore one of the significant evaluation standards. In particular, because nuclear fuel cycle cost may vary in each country, and the estimated cost usually prevails over the real cost, when evaluating the economic efficiency, any existing uncertainty needs to be removed when possible to produce reliable cost information. Many countries still do not have reprocessing facilities, and no globally commercialized HLW (High-level waste) repository is available. A nuclear fuel cycle cost estimation model is therefore inevitably subject to uncertainty. This paper analyzes the uncertainty arising out of a nuclear fuel cycle cost evaluation from the viewpoint of a cost estimation model. Compared to the same discount rate model, the nuclear fuel cycle cost of a different discount rate model is reduced because the generation quantity as denominator in Equation has been discounted. Namely, if the discount rate reduces in the back-end process of the nuclear fuel cycle, the nuclear fuel cycle cost is also reduced. Further, it was found that the cost of the same discount rate model is overestimated compared with the different discount rate model as a whole.

  16. An Adjusted Discount Rate Model for Fuel Cycle Cost Estimation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, S. K.; Kang, G. B.; Ko, W. I.

    2013-01-01

    Owing to the diverse nuclear fuel cycle options available, including direct disposal, it is necessary to select the optimum nuclear fuel cycles in consideration of the political and social environments as well as the technical stability and economic efficiency of each country. Economic efficiency is therefore one of the significant evaluation standards. In particular, because nuclear fuel cycle cost may vary in each country, and the estimated cost usually prevails over the real cost, when evaluating the economic efficiency, any existing uncertainty needs to be removed when possible to produce reliable cost information. Many countries still do not have reprocessing facilities, and no globally commercialized HLW (High-level waste) repository is available. A nuclear fuel cycle cost estimation model is therefore inevitably subject to uncertainty. This paper analyzes the uncertainty arising out of a nuclear fuel cycle cost evaluation from the viewpoint of a cost estimation model. Compared to the same discount rate model, the nuclear fuel cycle cost of a different discount rate model is reduced because the generation quantity as denominator in Equation has been discounted. Namely, if the discount rate reduces in the back-end process of the nuclear fuel cycle, the nuclear fuel cycle cost is also reduced. Further, it was found that the cost of the same discount rate model is overestimated compared with the different discount rate model as a whole

  17. Dose rate modelled for the outdoors of a gamma irradiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mangussi, J

    2012-01-01

    A model for the absorbed dose rate calculation on the surroundings of a gamma irradiation plant is developed. In such plants, a part of the radiation emitted upwards reach's the outdoors. The Compton scatterings on the wall of the exhausting pipes through de plant roof and on the outdoors air are modelled. The absorbed dose rate generated by the scattered radiation as far as 200 m is calculated. The results of the models, to be used for the irradiation plant design and for the environmental studies, are showed on graphics (author)

  18. Variable selection for mixture and promotion time cure rate models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masud, Abdullah; Tu, Wanzhu; Yu, Zhangsheng

    2016-11-16

    Failure-time data with cured patients are common in clinical studies. Data from these studies are typically analyzed with cure rate models. Variable selection methods have not been well developed for cure rate models. In this research, we propose two least absolute shrinkage and selection operators based methods, for variable selection in mixture and promotion time cure models with parametric or nonparametric baseline hazards. We conduct an extensive simulation study to assess the operating characteristics of the proposed methods. We illustrate the use of the methods using data from a study of childhood wheezing. © The Author(s) 2016.

  19. CONTINUOUS MODELING OF FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATE OF USD VERSUS TRY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yakup Arı

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available This study aims to construct continuous-time autoregressive (CAR model and continuous-time GARCH (COGARCH model from discrete time data of foreign exchange rate of United States Dollar (USD versus Turkish Lira (TRY. These processes are solutions to stochastic differential equation Lévy-driven processes. We have shown that CAR(1 and COGARCH(1,1 processes are proper models to represent foreign exchange rate of USD and TRY for different periods of time February 2002- June 2010.

  20. Mathematical model as means of optimization of the automation system of the process of incidents of information security management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yulia G. Krasnozhon

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Modern information technologies have an increasing importance for development dynamics and management structure of an enterprise. The management efficiency of implementation of modern information technologies directly related to the quality of information security incident management. However, issues of assessment of the impact of information security incidents management on quality and efficiency of the enterprise management system are not sufficiently highlighted neither in Russian nor in foreign literature. The main direction to approach these problems is the optimization of the process automation system of the information security incident management. Today a special attention is paid to IT-technologies while dealing with information security incidents at mission-critical facilities in Russian Federation such as the Federal Tax Service of Russia (FTS. It is proposed to use the mathematical apparatus of queueing theory in order to build a mathematical model of the system optimization. The developed model allows to estimate quality of the management taking into account the rules and restrictions imposed on the system by the effects of information security incidents. Here an example is given in order to demonstrate the system in work. The obtained statistical data are shown. An implementation of the system discussed here will improve the quality of the Russian FTS services and make responses to information security incidents faster.

  1. Incidence, admission rates, and economic burden of pediatric emergency department visits for urinary tract infection: data from the nationwide emergency department sample, 2006 to 2011.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sood, Akshay; Penna, Frank J; Eleswarapu, Sriram; Pucheril, Dan; Weaver, John; Abd-El-Barr, Abd-El-Rahman; Wagner, Jordan C; Lakshmanan, Yegappan; Menon, Mani; Trinh, Quoc-Dien; Sammon, Jesse D; Elder, Jack S

    2015-10-01

    The Emergency Department (ED) is being increasingly utilized as a pathway for management of acute conditions such as the urinary tract infections (UTIs). We sought to assess the contemporary trends in pediatric UTI associated ED visits, subsequent hospitalization, and corresponding financial expenditure, using a large nationally representative pediatric cohort. Further, we describe the predictors of admission following a UTI associated ED visit. The Nationwide Emergency Department Sample (NEDS; 2006-2011) was queried to assess temporal-trends in pediatric (age ≤17 years) ED visits for a primary diagnosis of UTI (ICD9 CM code 590.X, 595.0, and 599.0), subsequent hospital admission, and total charges. These trends were examined using the estimated annual percent change (EAPC) method. Multivariable regression models fitted with generalized estimating equations (GEE) identified the predictors of hospital admission. Of the 1,904,379 children presenting to the ED for management of UTI, 86 042 (4.7%) underwent hospital admission. Female ED visits accounted for almost 90% of visits and increased significantly (EAPC 3.28%; p = 0.003) from 709 visits per 100 000 in 2006 to 844 visits per 100 000 in 2011. Male UTI incidence remained unchanged over the study-period (p = 0.292). The overall UTI associated ED visits also increased significantly during the study-period (EAPC 3.14%; p = 0.006) because of the increase in female UTI associated ED visits. Overall hospital admissions declined significantly over the study-period (EAPC -5.59%; p = 0.021). Total associated charges increased significantly at an annual rate of 18.26%, increasing from 254 million USD in 2006 to 464 million USD in 2011 (p predictors of admission included younger age (p pediatric UTI is on the rise. This rise in incidence could be due to several factors, including increasing prevalence of metabolic conditions such as obesity, diabetes and metabolic syndrome in children predisposing them to infections, or

  2. Global stability for infectious disease models that include immigration of infected individuals and delay in the incidence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chelsea Uggenti

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available We begin with a detailed study of a delayed SI model of disease transmission with immigration into both classes. The incidence function allows for a nonlinear dependence on the infected population, including mass action and saturating incidence as special cases. Due to the immigration of infectives, there is no disease-free equilibrium and hence no basic reproduction number. We show there is a unique endemic equilibrium and that this equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable for all parameter values. The results include vector-style delay and latency-style delay. Next, we show that previous global stability results for an SEI model and an SVI model that include immigration of infectives and non-linear incidence but not delay can be extended to systems with vector-style delay and latency-style delay.

  3. A finite element propagation model for extracting normal incidence impedance in nonprogressive acoustic wave fields

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watson, Willie R.; Jones, Michael G.; Tanner, Sharon E.; Parrott, Tony L.

    1995-01-01

    A propagation model method for extracting the normal incidence impedance of an acoustic material installed as a finite length segment in a wall of a duct carrying a nonprogressive wave field is presented. The method recasts the determination of the unknown impedance as the minimization of the normalized wall pressure error function. A finite element propagation model is combined with a coarse/fine grid impedance plane search technique to extract the impedance of the material. Results are presented for three different materials for which the impedance is known. For each material, the input data required for the prediction scheme was computed from modal theory and then contaminated by random error. The finite element method reproduces the known impedance of each material almost exactly for random errors typical of those found in many measurement environments. Thus, the method developed here provides a means for determining the impedance of materials in a nonprogressirve wave environment such as that usually encountered in a commercial aircraft engine and most laboratory settings.

  4. The Incidence Patterns Model to Estimate the Distribution of New HIV Infections in Sub-Saharan Africa: Development and Validation of a Mathematical Model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Annick Bórquez

    2016-09-01

    contribution of each group to transmission using a simple model that builds on the results from the IPM and makes further assumptions about sexual mixing patterns and transmission rates. In all countries except Swaziland, individuals in unions were the single group contributing to the largest proportion of new infections acquired (39%-77%, followed by never married women and men. Female sex workers accounted for a large proportion of new infections (5%-16% compared to their population size. Individuals in unions were also the single largest contributor to the proportion of infections transmitted (35%-62%, followed by key populations and previously married men and women. Swaziland exhibited different incidence patterns, with never married men and women accounting for over 65% of new infections acquired and also contributing to a large proportion of infections transmitted (up to 56%. Between- and within-country variations indicated different incidence patterns in specific settings.It is possible to reliably predict the distribution of new HIV infections acquired using data routinely available in many countries in the sub-Saharan African region with a single relatively simple mathematical model. This tool would complement more specific analyses to guide resource allocation, data collection, and programme planning.

  5. The Incidence Patterns Model to Estimate the Distribution of New HIV Infections in Sub-Saharan Africa: Development and Validation of a Mathematical Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bórquez, Annick; Cori, Anne; Pufall, Erica L; Kasule, Jingo; Slaymaker, Emma; Price, Alison; Elmes, Jocelyn; Zaba, Basia; Crampin, Amelia C; Kagaayi, Joseph; Lutalo, Tom; Urassa, Mark; Gregson, Simon; Hallett, Timothy B

    2016-09-01

    group to transmission using a simple model that builds on the results from the IPM and makes further assumptions about sexual mixing patterns and transmission rates. In all countries except Swaziland, individuals in unions were the single group contributing to the largest proportion of new infections acquired (39%-77%), followed by never married women and men. Female sex workers accounted for a large proportion of new infections (5%-16%) compared to their population size. Individuals in unions were also the single largest contributor to the proportion of infections transmitted (35%-62%), followed by key populations and previously married men and women. Swaziland exhibited different incidence patterns, with never married men and women accounting for over 65% of new infections acquired and also contributing to a large proportion of infections transmitted (up to 56%). Between- and within-country variations indicated different incidence patterns in specific settings. It is possible to reliably predict the distribution of new HIV infections acquired using data routinely available in many countries in the sub-Saharan African region with a single relatively simple mathematical model. This tool would complement more specific analyses to guide resource allocation, data collection, and programme planning.

  6. A Logistic Regression Based Auto Insurance Rate-Making Model Designed for the Insurance Rate Reform

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhengmin Duan

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Using a generalized linear model to determine the claim frequency of auto insurance is a key ingredient in non-life insurance research. Among auto insurance rate-making models, there are very few considering auto types. Therefore, in this paper we are proposing a model that takes auto types into account by making an innovative use of the auto burden index. Based on this model and data from a Chinese insurance company, we built a clustering model that classifies auto insurance rates into three risk levels. The claim frequency and the claim costs are fitted to select a better loss distribution. Then the Logistic Regression model is employed to fit the claim frequency, with the auto burden index considered. Three key findings can be concluded from our study. First, more than 80% of the autos with an auto burden index of 20 or higher belong to the highest risk level. Secondly, the claim frequency is better fitted using the Poisson distribution, however the claim cost is better fitted using the Gamma distribution. Lastly, based on the AIC criterion, the claim frequency is more adequately represented by models that consider the auto burden index than those do not. It is believed that insurance policy recommendations that are based on Generalized linear models (GLM can benefit from our findings.

  7. Prediction of interest rate using CKLS model with stochastic parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ying, Khor Chia; Hin, Pooi Ah

    2014-01-01

    The Chan, Karolyi, Longstaff and Sanders (CKLS) model is a popular one-factor model for describing the spot interest rates. In this paper, the four parameters in the CKLS model are regarded as stochastic. The parameter vector φ (j) of four parameters at the (J+n)-th time point is estimated by the j-th window which is defined as the set consisting of the observed interest rates at the j′-th time point where j≤j′≤j+n. To model the variation of φ (j) , we assume that φ (j) depends on φ (j−m) , φ (j−m+1) ,…, φ (j−1) and the interest rate r j+n at the (j+n)-th time point via a four-dimensional conditional distribution which is derived from a [4(m+1)+1]-dimensional power-normal distribution. Treating the (j+n)-th time point as the present time point, we find a prediction interval for the future value r j+n+1 of the interest rate at the next time point when the value r j+n of the interest rate is given. From the above four-dimensional conditional distribution, we also find a prediction interval for the future interest rate r j+n+d at the next d-th (d≥2) time point. The prediction intervals based on the CKLS model with stochastic parameters are found to have better ability of covering the observed future interest rates when compared with those based on the model with fixed parameters

  8. Prediction of interest rate using CKLS model with stochastic parameters

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ying, Khor Chia [Faculty of Computing and Informatics, Multimedia University, Jalan Multimedia, 63100 Cyberjaya, Selangor (Malaysia); Hin, Pooi Ah [Sunway University Business School, No. 5, Jalan Universiti, Bandar Sunway, 47500 Subang Jaya, Selangor (Malaysia)

    2014-06-19

    The Chan, Karolyi, Longstaff and Sanders (CKLS) model is a popular one-factor model for describing the spot interest rates. In this paper, the four parameters in the CKLS model are regarded as stochastic. The parameter vector φ{sup (j)} of four parameters at the (J+n)-th time point is estimated by the j-th window which is defined as the set consisting of the observed interest rates at the j′-th time point where j≤j′≤j+n. To model the variation of φ{sup (j)}, we assume that φ{sup (j)} depends on φ{sup (j−m)}, φ{sup (j−m+1)},…, φ{sup (j−1)} and the interest rate r{sub j+n} at the (j+n)-th time point via a four-dimensional conditional distribution which is derived from a [4(m+1)+1]-dimensional power-normal distribution. Treating the (j+n)-th time point as the present time point, we find a prediction interval for the future value r{sub j+n+1} of the interest rate at the next time point when the value r{sub j+n} of the interest rate is given. From the above four-dimensional conditional distribution, we also find a prediction interval for the future interest rate r{sub j+n+d} at the next d-th (d≥2) time point. The prediction intervals based on the CKLS model with stochastic parameters are found to have better ability of covering the observed future interest rates when compared with those based on the model with fixed parameters.

  9. Incidence of atrial fibrillation in relation to changing heart rate over time in hypertensive patients: the LIFE study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Okin, Peter M; Wachtell, Kristian; Kjeldsen, Sverre E

    2008-01-01

    Onset of atrial fibrillation (AF) has been linked to changes in autonomic tone, with increasing heart rate (HR) immediately before AF onset in some patients suggesting a possible role of acute increases in sympathetic activity in AF onset. Although losartan therapy and decreasing ECG left...

  10. Incidence rate of symptomatic painless thyroiditis presenting with thyrotoxicosis in Denmark as evaluated by consecutive thyroid scintigraphies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schwartz, Frederik; Bergmann, Natasha; Zerahn, Bo

    2013-01-01

    Painless thyroiditis (PT) is a transient kind of thyrotoxicosis, with lack of uptake on a thyroid scintigraphy in a non-tender thyroid gland, elevated anti-TPO antibodies, no fever, no history of increased iodine intake, and a normal sedimentation rate. The prevalence of PT varies hugely...

  11. Incidence of Diabetes Mellitus Narrowly Correlates with Unemployment Rate during 2000–2012 in the Czech Republic

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Brož, J.; Brabec, Marek; Janíčková Žďárská, D.; Novotná, M.; Kvapil, M.

    č. 1 (2016), s. 86-87 ISSN 1210-7778 Institutional support: RVO:67985807 Keywords : diabetes mellitus * unemployment rate Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 0.682, year: 2016 http://apps.szu.cz/svi/cejph/show_en.php?kat=archiv/2016-1-13

  12. A validation of the Danish microbiology database (MiBa) and incidence rate of Actinotignum schaalii (Actinobaculum schaalii) bacteraemia in Denmark.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bank, S; Søby, K M; Kristensen, L H; Voldstedlund, M; Prag, J

    2015-12-01

    Actinotignum schaalii (former named Actinobaculum schaalii) can cause urinary tract infections (UTIs) and bacteraemia, mainly in the elderly. A. schaalii is difficult to identify with conventional biochemical tests, and it is often overlooked if the urine is only cultured in ambient air. The aim of this study was to validate data from the nationwide Danish microbiology database (MiBa) with data from the laboratory information system (LIS) at the local department of microbiology in Viborg-Herning, and to evaluate the incidence rate of bacteraemia caused by A. schaalii in Denmark by using data from the MiBa. All departments of microbiology in Denmark report data to the MiBa. All microbiological samples with A. schaalii in Denmark were extracted for a period of 5 years from the MiBa and from the local LISs. All data obtained from our local LIS were also found in the MiBa, except for data on real-time PCR, which were not registered, owing to missing ID codes in the MiBa. From 2010 to 2014, there was a significant increase in the incidence rate of blood cultures with A. schaalii, from 1.8 to 6.8 cases per million, which was probably due to coincident implementation of matrix-assisted laser desorption ionization time-of-flight mass spectrometry (MALDI-TOF MS) in routine diagnostics. We found that A. schaalii caused bacteraemia and UTIs mainly in the elderly. In conclusion, the MiBa can be a useful source of nationwide microbiological data in Denmark. Our results suggest that the incidence rate of A. schaalii as a cause of bacteraemia has been underestimated, and that culture of urine in CO2 can improve the detection of A. schaalii. Copyright © 2015 European Society of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. ECONOMETRIC APPROACH TO DIFFERENCE EQUATIONS MODELING OF EXCHANGE RATES CHANGES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Josip Arnerić

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Time series models that are commonly used in econometric modeling are autoregressive stochastic linear models (AR and models of moving averages (MA. Mentioned models by their structure are actually stochastic difference equations. Therefore, the objective of this paper is to estimate difference equations containing stochastic (random component. Estimated models of time series will be used to forecast observed data in the future. Namely, solutions of difference equations are closely related to conditions of stationary time series models. Based on the fact that volatility is time varying in high frequency data and that periods of high volatility tend to cluster, the most successful and popular models in modeling time varying volatility are GARCH type models and their variants. However, GARCH models will not be analyzed because the purpose of this research is to predict the value of the exchange rate in the levels within conditional mean equation and to determine whether the observed variable has a stable or explosive time path. Based on the estimated difference equation it will be examined whether Croatia is implementing a stable policy of exchange rates.

  14. Cancer incidence among a cohort of subjects exposed to low-dose rate chronic radiation exposure in utero and after birth in the techa riverbank villages

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ostroumova, E.V.; Akleyev, A.V.; Akleyev, A.V.; Hall, P.

    2003-01-01

    As a result of releases of liquid radioactive waste by the Mayak Production Association (PA) into the Techa River since 1949 till 1956 the population of the Riverside villages was exposed to a protracted effect of combined (external and internal) radiation. The 1-st-generation offspring of exposed residents born on 01.01.1950 and later were exposed both in utero and after birth. In all, 46 cancer cases, including 4 cases of leukemia, were registered among the study cohort members numbering 7,890 subjects born in the Techa Riverside villages in the Chelyabinsk province over the period since 1950 till 1998. No significant differences were noted in cancer incidence rates between men and women. Cancer incidence in the offspring's cohort was by 30-35% higher compared with the unexposed population of the USSR and Russia, the differences, however, are statistically insignificant. No influence of the parents total gonadal dose on cancer development in offspring was observed. The positive dose-effect dependence of cancer incidence on both antenatal and postnatal exposure was traced

  15. Intravitreal injection analysis at the Bascom Palmer Eye Institute: evaluation of clinical indications for the treatment and incidence rates of endophthalmitis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ludimila L Cavalcante

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available Ludimila L Cavalcante, Milena L Cavalcante, Timothy G Murray, Michael M Vigoda, Yolanda Piña, Christina L Decatur, R Prince Davis, Lisa C Olmos, Amy C Schefler, Michael B Parrott, Kyle J Alliman, Harry W Flynn, Andrew A MoshfeghiBascom Palmer Eye Institute, Department of Ophthalmology, University of Miami Miller School of Medicine, Miami, FL, USAObjective: To report the incidence of endophthalmitis, in addition to its clinical and microbiological aspects, after intravitreal injection of vascular-targeting agents.Methods: A retrospective review of a consecutive series of 10,142 intravitreal injections of vascular targeting agents (bevacizumab, ranibizumab, triamcinolone acetonide, and preservative-free triamcinolone acetonide between June 1, 2007 and January 31, 2010, performed by a single service (TGM at the Bascom Palmer Eye Institute.Results: One case of clinically-suspected endophthalmitis was identified out of a total of 10,142 injections (0.009%, presenting within three days of injection of bevacizumab. The case was culture-positive for Staphylococcus epidermidis. Final visual acuity was 20/40 after pars plana vitrectomy surgery.Conclusions: In this series, the incidence of culture-positive endophthalmitis after intravitreal injection of vascular agents in an outpatient setting was very low. We believe that following a standardized injection protocol, adherence to sterile techniques and proper patient follow-up are determining factors for low incidence rates.Keywords: endophthalmitis, intravitreal injections, vascular targeting agents 

  16. A model for reaction rates in turbulent reacting flows

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chinitz, W.; Evans, J. S.

    1984-01-01

    To account for the turbulent temperature and species-concentration fluctuations, a model is presented on the effects of chemical reaction rates in computer analyses of turbulent reacting flows. The model results in two parameters which multiply the terms in the reaction-rate equations. For these two parameters, graphs are presented as functions of the mean values and intensity of the turbulent fluctuations of the temperature and species concentrations. These graphs will facilitate incorporation of the model into existing computer programs which describe turbulent reacting flows. When the model was used in a two-dimensional parabolic-flow computer code to predict the behavior of an experimental, supersonic hydrogen jet burning in air, some improvement in agreement with the experimental data was obtained in the far field in the region near the jet centerline. Recommendations are included for further improvement of the model and for additional comparisons with experimental data.

  17. Constructing a Model of Lottery Tax Incidence Measurement: Revisiting the Illinois Lottery Tax for Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daberkow, Kevin S.; Lin, Wei

    2012-01-01

    Nearly half a century of lottery scholarship has measured lottery tax incidence predominantly through either the Suits Index or regression analysis. The present study builds on historic lottery tax burden measurement to present a comprehensive set of tools to determine the tax incidence of individual games in addition to determining which lottery…

  18. Incidence of social phobia and identification of its risk indicators: A model for prevention.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Acarturk, C.; Smit, H.F.E.; Graaf, de R.; Straten, van A.; Have, M. ten; Cuijpers, P.

    2009-01-01

    Objective: This study seeks to examine the incidence of social phobia in the general population and to establish a number of risk indicators. Method: Data were derived from the Netherlands Mental Health Survey and Incidence Study (NEMESIS) which is a population based prospective study (n = 7076). A

  19. Elevated Incidence of Dental Caries in a Mouse Model of Cystic Fibrosis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Catalán, Marcelo A.; Scott-Anne, Kathleen; Klein, Marlise I.; Koo, Hyun; Bowen, William H.; Melvin, James E.

    2011-01-01

    Background Dental caries is the single most prevalent and costly infectious disease worldwide, affecting more than 90% of the population in the U.S. The development of dental cavities requires the colonization of the tooth surface by acid-producing bacteria, such as Streptococcus mutans. Saliva bicarbonate constitutes the main buffering system which neutralizes the pH fall generated by the plaque bacteria during sugar metabolism. We found that the saliva pH is severely decreased in a mouse model of cystic fibrosis disease (CF). Given the close relationship between pH and caries development, we hypothesized that caries incidence might be elevated in the mouse CF model. Methodology/Principal Findings We induced carious lesions in CF and wildtype mice by infecting their oral cavity with S. mutans, a well-studied cariogenic bacterium. After infection, the mice were fed a high-sucrose diet for 5 weeks (diet 2000). The mice were then euthanized and their jaws removed for caries scoring and bacterial counting. A dramatic increase in caries and severity of lesions scores were apparent in CF mice compared to their wildtype littermates. The elevated incidence of carious lesions correlated with a striking increase in the S. mutans viable population in dental plaque (20-fold increase in CF vs. wildtype mice; p value<0.003; t test). We also found that the pilocarpine-stimulated saliva bicarbonate concentration was significantly reduced in CF mice (16±2 mM vs. 31±2 mM, CF and wildtype mice, respectively; p value<0.01; t test). Conclusions/Significance Considering that bicarbonate is the most important pH buffering system in saliva, and the adherence and survival of aciduric bacteria such as S. mutans are enhanced at low pH values, we speculate that the decrease in the bicarbonate content and pH buffering of the saliva is at least partially responsible for the increased severity of lesions observed in the CF mouse. PMID:21304986

  20. Modeling decay rates of dead wood in a neotropical forest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hérault, Bruno; Beauchêne, Jacques; Muller, Félix; Wagner, Fabien; Baraloto, Christopher; Blanc, Lilian; Martin, Jean-Michel

    2010-09-01

    Variation of dead wood decay rates among tropical trees remains one source of uncertainty in global models of the carbon cycle. Taking advantage of a broad forest plot network surveyed for tree mortality over a 23-year period, we measured the remaining fraction of boles from 367 dead trees from 26 neotropical species widely varying in wood density (0.23-1.24 g cm(-3)) and tree circumference at death time (31.5-272.0 cm). We modeled decay rates within a Bayesian framework assuming a first order differential equation to model the decomposition process and tested for the effects of forest management (selective logging vs. unexploited), of mode of death (standing vs. downed) and of topographical levels (bottomlands vs. hillsides vs. hilltops) on wood decay rates. The general decay model predicts the observed remaining fraction of dead wood (R2 = 60%) with only two biological predictors: tree circumference at death time and wood specific density. Neither selective logging nor local topography had a differential effect on wood decay rates. Including the mode of death into the model revealed that standing dead trees decomposed faster than downed dead trees, but the gain of model accuracy remains rather marginal. Overall, these results suggest that the release of carbon from tropical dead trees to the atmosphere can be simply estimated using tree circumference at death time and wood density.

  1. Modeling the intracellular pathogen-immune interaction with cure rate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dubey, Balram; Dubey, Preeti; Dubey, Uma S.

    2016-09-01

    Many common and emergent infectious diseases like Influenza, SARS, Hepatitis, Ebola etc. are caused by viral pathogens. These infections can be controlled or prevented by understanding the dynamics of pathogen-immune interaction in vivo. In this paper, interaction of pathogens with uninfected and infected cells in presence or absence of immune response are considered in four different cases. In the first case, the model considers the saturated nonlinear infection rate and linear cure rate without absorption of pathogens into uninfected cells and without immune response. The next model considers the effect of absorption of pathogens into uninfected cells while all other terms are same as in the first case. The third model incorporates innate immune response, humoral immune response and Cytotoxic T lymphocytes (CTL) mediated immune response with cure rate and without absorption of pathogens into uninfected cells. The last model is an extension of the third model in which the effect of absorption of pathogens into uninfected cells has been considered. Positivity and boundedness of solutions are established to ensure the well-posedness of the problem. It has been found that all the four models have two equilibria, namely, pathogen-free equilibrium point and pathogen-present equilibrium point. In each case, stability analysis of each equilibrium point is investigated. Pathogen-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable when basic reproduction number is less or equal to unity. This implies that control or prevention of infection is independent of initial concentration of uninfected cells, infected cells, pathogens and immune responses in the body. The proposed models show that introduction of immune response and cure rate strongly affects the stability behavior of the system. Further, on computing basic reproduction number, it has been found to be minimum for the fourth model vis-a-vis other models. The analytical findings of each model have been exemplified by

  2. Modelling of behaviour of metals at high strain rates

    OpenAIRE

    Panov, Vili

    2006-01-01

    The aim of the work presented in this thesis was to produce the improvement of the existing simulation tools used for the analysis of materials and structures, which are dynamically loaded and subjected to the different levels of temperatures and strain rates. The main objective of this work was development of tools for modelling of strain rate and temperature dependant behaviour of aluminium alloys, typical for aerospace structures with pronounced orthotropic properties, and their implementa...

  3. Do expert ratings or economic models explain champagne prices?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bentzen, Jan Børsen; Smith, Valdemar

    2008-01-01

    Champagne is bought with low frequency and many consumers most likely do not have or seek full information on the quality of champagne. Some consumers may rely on the reputation of particular brands, e.g. "Les Grandes Marques", some consumers choose to gain information from sensory ratings...... of champagne. The aim of this paper is to analyse the champagne prices on the Scandinavian markets by applying a hedonic price function in a comparative framework with minimal models using sensory ratings....

  4. The importance of the strain rate and creep on the stress corrosion cracking mechanisms and models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aly, Omar F.; Mattar Neto, Miguel; Schvartzman, Monica M.A.M.

    2011-01-01

    Stress corrosion cracking is a nuclear, power, petrochemical, and other industries equipment and components (like pressure vessels, nozzles, tubes, accessories) life degradation mode, involving fragile fracture. The stress corrosion cracking failures can produce serious accidents, and incidents which can put on risk the safety, reliability, and efficiency of many plants. These failures are of very complex prediction. The stress corrosion cracking mechanisms are based on three kinds of factors: microstructural, mechanical and environmental. Concerning the mechanical factors, various authors prefer to consider the crack tip strain rate rather than stress, as a decisive factor which contributes to the process: this parameter is directly influenced by the creep strain rate of the material. Based on two KAPL-Knolls Atomic Power Laboratory experimental studies in SSRT (slow strain rate test) and CL (constant load) test, for prediction of primary water stress corrosion cracking in nickel based alloys, it has done a data compilation of the film rupture mechanism parameters, for modeling PWSCC of Alloy 600 and discussed the importance of the strain rate and the creep on the stress corrosion cracking mechanisms and models. As derived from this study, a simple theoretical model is proposed, and it is showed that the crack growth rate estimated with Brazilian tests results with Alloy 600 in SSRT, are according with the KAPL ones and other published literature. (author)

  5. An Econometric Diffusion Model of Exchange Rate Movements within a Band - Implications for Interest Rate Differential and Credibility of Exchange Rate Policy

    OpenAIRE

    Rantala, Olavi

    1992-01-01

    The paper presents a model ofexchange rate movements within a specified exchange rate band enforced by central bank interventions. The model is based on the empirical observation that the exchange rate has usually been strictly inside the band, at least in Finland. In this model the distribution of the exchange rate is truncated lognormal from the edges towards the center of the band and hence quite different from the bimodal distribution of the standard target zone model. The model is estima...

  6. Forecast model of safety economy contribution rate of China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LIU Li-jun; SHI Shi-liang

    2005-01-01

    It is the rational and exact computation of the safety economy contribution rate that has the far-reaching realistic meaning to the improvement of society cognition to safety and the investment to the nation safety and the national macro-safety decision-makings. The accurate function between safety inputs and outputs was obtained through a founded econometric model. Then the forecasted safety economy contribution rate is 3.01% and the forecasted ratio between safety inputs and outputs is 1:1.81 in China in 2005. And the model accords with the practice of China and the results are satisfying.

  7. Pipe fracture evaluations for leak-rate detection: Probabilistic models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rahman, S.; Wilkowski, G.; Ghadiali, N.

    1993-01-01

    This is the second in series of three papers generated from studies on nuclear pipe fracture evaluations for leak-rate detection. This paper focuses on the development of novel probabilistic models for stochastic performance evaluation of degraded nuclear piping systems. It was accomplished here in three distinct stages. First, a statistical analysis was conducted to characterize various input variables for thermo-hydraulic analysis and elastic-plastic fracture mechanics, such as material properties of pipe, crack morphology variables, and location of cracks found in nuclear piping. Second, a new stochastic model was developed to evaluate performance of degraded piping systems. It is based on accurate deterministic models for thermo-hydraulic and fracture mechanics analyses described in the first paper, statistical characterization of various input variables, and state-of-the-art methods of modem structural reliability theory. From this model. the conditional probability of failure as a function of leak-rate detection capability of the piping systems can be predicted. Third, a numerical example was presented to illustrate the proposed model for piping reliability analyses. Results clearly showed that the model provides satisfactory estimates of conditional failure probability with much less computational effort when compared with those obtained from Monte Carlo simulation. The probabilistic model developed in this paper will be applied to various piping in boiling water reactor and pressurized water reactor plants for leak-rate detection applications

  8. Incidence of atrial fibrillation and its risk prediction model based on a prospective urban Han Chinese cohort.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ding, L; Li, J; Wang, C; Li, X; Su, Q; Zhang, G; Xue, F

    2017-09-01

    Prediction models of atrial fibrillation (AF) have been developed; however, there was no AF prediction model validated in Chinese population. Therefore, we aimed to investigate the incidence of AF in urban Han Chinese health check-up population, as well as to develop AF prediction models using behavioral, anthropometric, biochemical, electrocardiogram (ECG) markers, as well as visit-to-visit variability (VVV) in blood pressures available in the routine health check-up. A total of 33 186 participants aged 45-85 years and free of AF at baseline were included in this cohort, to follow up for incident AF with an annually routine health check-up. Cox regression models were used to develop AF prediction model and 10-fold cross-validation was used to test the discriminatory accuracy of prediction model. We developed three prediction models, with age, sex, history of coronary heart disease (CHD), hypertension as predictors for simple model, with left high-amplitude waves, premature beats added for ECG model, and with age, sex, history of CHD and VVV in systolic and diabolic blood pressures as predictors for VVV model, to estimate risk of incident AF. The calibration of our models ranged from 1.001 to 1.004 (P for Hosmer Lemeshow test >0.05). The area under receiver operator characteristics curve were 78%, 80% and 82%, respectively, for predicting risk of AF. In conclusion, we have identified predictors of incident AF and developed prediction models for AF with variables readily available in routine health check-up.

  9. Carcinogenesis model analysis for breast cancer incidence among atomic bomb survivors and the implications for cancer risk estimate for radiological protection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kai, Michiaki; Kusama, Tomoko

    2000-01-01

    Breast cancer incidence is the highest risk due to radiation among atomic bomb survivors. The excess relative risk of the early-onset breast cancer seems to be remarkably high for the youngest age-at-exposure groups. The cancer risk estimate of breast cancer is a current issue in radiological protection. We used a two-stage stochastic model for carcinogenesis to analyze the breast cancer incidence among atomic bomb survivors (Kai, et al. Radiat. Res. 1997). Our purpose is to examine the dependence of radiation risk on age at exposure using the two-stage model and how to transfer it to other populations for radiological protection. We fitted the model assuming that radiation acts as an initiator and that the rate of radiation-induced mutation and background initiation mutation leading to baseline cancer are additive. We took two age-dependence, not attained age but age at exposure, of the spontaneous process into account. First, age-dependence of spontaneous initiation was expressed by a linear model. We also modeled the age-dependence of spontaneous net growth rate of initiated cells by a linear function. As far as radiation-induced initiation is concerned, we took a stepwise function other than a liner function into account. The analysis did not show that the radiation mutation for the youngest age-at-exposure groups below age 10 was higher than for the older groups. Furthermore, the incidence of female breast cancer in Japan is increasing and the birth cohort effect can be observed in atomic bomb survivors. Our model assumed that an acute exposure to atomic radiation can only initiate cancers and do not influence other stages of carcinogenesis, whereas spontaneous initiation and promotion are age-dependent to consider birth cohort effects. When these cohort effects are properly accounted for, the shape of the age-specific incidence curve in Japan is remarkably similar to the age-specific incidence in western populations (shown in figure). Recently Little and

  10. Hierarchical Bayesian modeling of spatio-temporal patterns of lung cancer incidence risk in Georgia, USA: 2000-2007

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yin, Ping; Mu, Lan; Madden, Marguerite; Vena, John E.

    2014-10-01

    Lung cancer is the second most commonly diagnosed cancer in both men and women in Georgia, USA. However, the spatio-temporal patterns of lung cancer risk in Georgia have not been fully studied. Hierarchical Bayesian models are used here to explore the spatio-temporal patterns of lung cancer incidence risk by race and gender in Georgia for the period of 2000-2007. With the census tract level as the spatial scale and the 2-year period aggregation as the temporal scale, we compare a total of seven Bayesian spatio-temporal models including two under a separate modeling framework and five under a joint modeling framework. One joint model outperforms others based on the deviance information criterion. Results show that the northwest region of Georgia has consistently high lung cancer incidence risk for all population groups during the study period. In addition, there are inverse relationships between the socioeconomic status and the lung cancer incidence risk among all Georgian population groups, and the relationships in males are stronger than those in females. By mapping more reliable variations in lung cancer incidence risk at a relatively fine spatio-temporal scale for different Georgian population groups, our study aims to better support healthcare performance assessment, etiological hypothesis generation, and health policy making.

  11. Impact of anatomical variations of the circle of Willis on the incidence of aneurysms and their recurrence rate following endovascular treatment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Songsaeng, D; Geibprasert, S; Willinsky, R; Tymianski, M; TerBrugge, K G; Krings, T

    2010-11-01

    To analyse the impact of anatomical variations of the parent arteries on the incidence and recurrence rate following coil embolization of aneurysms of the anterior (AcoA), posterior communicating artery (PcoA) and basilar artery (BA) tip. Two hundred and two (96 AcoA, 67 PcoA, and 29 BA) aneurysms in 200 patients were treated with coil embolization between January 2000 and April 2008. Parent artery variations at each location were classified as: AcoA: A1 aplasia versus hypoplasia versus symmetrical size; PcoA: foetal origin versus medium versus small size, BA: cranial versus caudal versus asymmetrical fusion. The incidence of aneurysms and difference between recurrence rates for each group were recorded on follow-up. AcoA, PcoA, and BA aneurysms were more often associated with embryonically earlier vessel wall dispositions (A1 aplasia, foetal PcoA, asymmetrical fusion). Two of these variations were also associated with aneurysm recurrence following coil embolization: asymmetrical A1 segment (p=0.01), and asymmetrical BA tip (p=0.02). AcoA, PcoA, and BA tip aneurysms tend to occur more often in anatomically variant parent artery dispositions, some of which are related to aneurysm recurrence following coil embolization. This may relate to a more fragile vessel disposition as it is not fully matured or to altered haemodynamics secondary to the anatomical variations. Copyright © 2010 The Royal College of Radiologists. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Impact of anatomical variations of the circle of Willis on the incidence of aneurysms and their recurrence rate following endovascular treatment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Songsaeng, D.; Geibprasert, S.; Willinsky, R.; Tymianski, M.; TerBrugge, K.G.; Krings, T.

    2010-01-01

    Aim: To analyse the impact of anatomical variations of the parent arteries on the incidence and recurrence rate following coil embolization of aneurysms of the anterior (AcoA), posterior communicating artery (PcoA) and basilar artery (BA) tip. Methods: Two hundred and two (96 AcoA, 67 PcoA, and 29 BA) aneurysms in 200 patients were treated with coil embolization between January 2000 and April 2008. Parent artery variations at each location were classified as: AcoA: A1 aplasia versus hypoplasia versus symmetrical size; PcoA: foetal origin versus medium versus small size, BA: cranial versus caudal versus asymmetrical fusion. The incidence of aneurysms and difference between recurrence rates for each group were recorded on follow-up. Results: AcoA, PcoA, and BA aneurysms were more often associated with embryonically earlier vessel wall dispositions (A1 aplasia, foetal PcoA, asymmetrical fusion). Two of these variations were also associated with aneurysm recurrence following coil embolization: asymmetrical A1 segment (p = 0.01), and asymmetrical BA tip (p = 0.02). Conclusions: AcoA, PcoA, and BA tip aneurysms tend to occur more often in anatomically variant parent artery dispositions, some of which are related to aneurysm recurrence following coil embolization. This may relate to a more fragile vessel disposition as it is not fully matured or to altered haemodynamics secondary to the anatomical variations.

  13. Impact of anatomical variations of the circle of Willis on the incidence of aneurysms and their recurrence rate following endovascular treatment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Songsaeng, D. [Division of Neuroradiology, Department of Medical Imaging, University of Toronto, Toronto (Canada); Department of Radiology, Siriraj Hospital, Faculty of Medicine, Mahidol University, Bangkok (Thailand); Geibprasert, S.; Willinsky, R. [Division of Neuroradiology, Department of Medical Imaging, University of Toronto, Toronto (Canada); Tymianski, M. [Department of Neurosurgery, Toronto Western Hospital, University of Toronto, Toronto (Canada); TerBrugge, K.G. [Division of Neuroradiology, Department of Medical Imaging, University of Toronto, Toronto (Canada); Krings, T., E-mail: timo.krings@uhn.on.c [Division of Neuroradiology, Department of Medical Imaging, University of Toronto, Toronto (Canada)

    2010-11-15

    Aim: To analyse the impact of anatomical variations of the parent arteries on the incidence and recurrence rate following coil embolization of aneurysms of the anterior (AcoA), posterior communicating artery (PcoA) and basilar artery (BA) tip. Methods: Two hundred and two (96 AcoA, 67 PcoA, and 29 BA) aneurysms in 200 patients were treated with coil embolization between January 2000 and April 2008. Parent artery variations at each location were classified as: AcoA: A1 aplasia versus hypoplasia versus symmetrical size; PcoA: foetal origin versus medium versus small size, BA: cranial versus caudal versus asymmetrical fusion. The incidence of aneurysms and difference between recurrence rates for each group were recorded on follow-up. Results: AcoA, PcoA, and BA aneurysms were more often associated with embryonically earlier vessel wall dispositions (A1 aplasia, foetal PcoA, asymmetrical fusion). Two of these variations were also associated with aneurysm recurrence following coil embolization: asymmetrical A1 segment (p = 0.01), and asymmetrical BA tip (p = 0.02). Conclusions: AcoA, PcoA, and BA tip aneurysms tend to occur more often in anatomically variant parent artery dispositions, some of which are related to aneurysm recurrence following coil embolization. This may relate to a more fragile vessel disposition as it is not fully matured or to altered haemodynamics secondary to the anatomical variations.

  14. Incidence rate of falls and its risk factors in patients with rheumatoid arthritis compared to controls: Four years of the TOMORROW study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mamoto, Kenji; Inui, Kentaro; Okano, Tadashi; Sugioka, Yuko; Tada, Masahiro; Koike, Tatsuya; Nakamura, Hiroaki

    2017-01-01

    Patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) have been recognized to experience falls frequently due to functional disabilities. The aim of this study was to prospectively investigate factors influencing falls in patients with RA compared to controls. We compared the frequency of falls in 208 RA patients and 205 age- and sex-matched volunteers for four years and analyzed risk factors for falls in RA patients using multivariate regression analysis. No significant difference in the incidence rate of falls (/person-year) between patients with RA (median [interquartile range]: 0 [0, 0.5]) and controls (0 [0, 0.5]) was evident during four years. Logistic regression analysis identified age, sex, body mass index, history of falls, and lower limb implant at baseline as significant risk factors for falls. The highest quartile of anti-CCP antibody level (>300.6 U/ml) was the strongest predictor for multiple falls (odds ratio, 2.97; 95% confidence interval, 1.12-7.91, p = 0.029) among RA patients. During four years we could not observe the higher incidence rate of falls in RA patients compared to controls in our cohort. Subjects with a higher titer of anti-CCP antibody might be at higher risk of frequent falls among RA patients.

  15. Prediction of cervical cancer incidence in England, UK, up to 2040, under four scenarios: a modelling study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castanon, Alejandra; Landy, Rebecca; Pesola, Francesca; Windridge, Peter; Sasieni, Peter

    2018-01-01

    In the next 25 years, the epidemiology of cervical cancer in England, UK, will change: human papillomavirus (HPV) screening will be the primary test for cervical cancer. Additionally, the proportion of women screened regularly is decreasing and women who received the HPV vaccine are due to attend screening for the first time. Therefore, we aimed to estimate how vaccination against HPV, changes to the screening test, and falling screening coverage will affect cervical cancer incidence in England up to 2040. We did a data modelling study that combined results from population modelling of incidence trends, observable data from the individual level with use of a generalised linear model, and microsimulation of unobservable disease states. We estimated age-specific absolute risks of cervical cancer in the absence of screening (derived from individual level data). We used an age period cohort model to estimate birth cohort effects. We multiplied the absolute risks by the age cohort effects to provide absolute risks of cervical cancer for unscreened women in different birth cohorts. We obtained relative risks (RRs) of cervical cancer by screening history (never screened, regularly screened, or lapsed attender) using data from a population-based case-control study for unvaccinated women, and using a microsimulation model for vaccinated women. RRs of primary HPV screening were relative to cytology. We used the proportion of women in each 5-year age group (25-29 years to 75-79 years) and 5-year period (2016-20 to 2036-40) who have a combination of screening and vaccination history, and weighted to estimate the population incidence. The primary outcome was the number of cases and rates per 100 000 women under four scenarios: no changes to current screening coverage or vaccine uptake and HPV primary testing from 2019 (status quo), changing the year in which HPV primary testing is introduced, introduction of the nine-valent vaccine, and changes to cervical screening coverage

  16. Strain Rate Dependant Material Model for Orthotropic Metals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vignjevic, Rade

    2016-01-01

    In manufacturing processes anisotropic metals are often exposed to the loading with high strain rates in the range from 10"2 s"-"1 to 10"6 s"-"1 (e.g. stamping, cold spraying and explosive forming). These types of loading often involve generation and propagation of shock waves within the material. The material behaviour under such a complex loading needs to be accurately modelled, in order to optimise the manufacturing process and achieve appropriate properties of the manufactured component. The presented research is related to development and validation of a thermodynamically consistent physically based constitutive model for metals under high rate loading. The model is capable of modelling damage, failure and formation and propagation of shock waves in anisotropic metals. The model has two main parts: the strength part which defines the material response to shear deformation and an equation of state (EOS) which defines the material response to isotropic volumetric deformation [1]. The constitutive model was implemented into the transient nonlinear finite element code DYNA3D [2] and our in house SPH code. Limited model validation was performed by simulating a number of high velocity material characterisation and validation impact tests. The new damage model was developed in the framework of configurational continuum mechanics and irreversible thermodynamics with internal state variables. The use of the multiplicative decomposition of deformation gradient makes the model applicable to arbitrary plastic and damage deformations. To account for the physical mechanisms of failure, the concept of thermally activated damage initially proposed by Tuller and Bucher [3], Klepaczko [4] was adopted as the basis for the new damage evolution model. This makes the proposed damage/failure model compatible with the Mechanical Threshold Strength (MTS) model Follansbee and Kocks [5], 1988; Chen and Gray [6] which was used to control evolution of flow stress during plastic

  17. Vapor generation rate model for dispersed drop flow

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Unal, C.; Tuzla, K.; Cokmez-Tuzla, A.F.; Chen, J.C.

    1991-01-01

    A comparison of predictions of existing nonequilibrium post-CHF heat transfer models with the recently obtained rod bundle data has been performed. The models used the experimental conditions and wall temperatures to predict the heat flux and vapor temperatures at the location of interest. No existing model was able to reasonably predict the vapor superheat and the wall heat flux simultaneously. Most of the models, except Chen-Sundaram-Ozkaynak, failed to predict the wall heat flux, while all of the models could not predict the vapor superheat data or trends. A recently developed two-region heat transfer model, the Webb-Chen two-region model, did not give a reasonable prediction of the vapor generation rate in the far field of the CHF point. A new correlation was formulated to predict the vapor generation rate in convective dispersed droplet flow in terms of thermal-hydraulic parameters and thermodynamic properties. A comparison of predictions of the two-region heat transfer model, with the use of a presently developed correlation, with all the existing post-CHF data, including single-tube and rod bundle, showed significant improvements in predicting the vapor superheat and tube wall heat flux trends. (orig.)

  18. Level-ARCH Short Rate Models with Regime Switching

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christiansen, Charlotte

    This paper introduces regime switching volatility into level- ARCH models for the short rates of the US, the UK, and Germany. Once regime switching and level effects are included there are no gains from including ARCH effects. It is of secondary importance exactly how the regime switching is spec...

  19. Empirical Model for Predicting Rate of Biogas Production | Adamu ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Rate of biogas production using cow manure as substrate was monitored in two laboratory scale batch reactors (13 liter and 108 liter capacities). Two empirical models based on the Gompertz and the modified logistic equations were used to fit the experimental data based on non-linear regression analysis using Solver tool ...

  20. Modeling sludge accumulation rates in lined pit latrines in slum ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Yvonne

    should include geo-physical characterization of soil and drainage of pit latrine sites so as ... Key words: Faecal, sludge accumulation rates, slum areas, lined pit latrines. .... Value and its unit Source .... overall quality of the models had to be assessed by validation on ..... Sanitation partnership series: Bringing pit emptying out.

  1. Theoretical model application to the evaluation of fission neutron data up to 20 MeV incidence energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ruben, A.; Maerten, H.; Seeliger, D.

    1990-01-01

    A complex statistical theory of fission neutron emission combined with a phenomenological fission model has been used to calculate fission neutron data for 238 U. Obtained neutron multiplicities and energy spectra as well as average fragment energies for incidence energies from threshold to 20 MeV (including multiple-chance fission) are compared with traditional data representations. (author). 19 refs, 6 figs

  2. Model-Data Fusion and Adaptive Sensing for Large Scale Systems: Applications to Atmospheric Release Incidents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madankan, Reza

    All across the world, toxic material clouds are emitted from sources, such as industrial plants, vehicular traffic, and volcanic eruptions can contain chemical, biological or radiological material. With the growing fear of natural, accidental or deliberate release of toxic agents, there is tremendous interest in precise source characterization and generating accurate hazard maps of toxic material dispersion for appropriate disaster management. In this dissertation, an end-to-end framework has been developed for probabilistic source characterization and forecasting of atmospheric release incidents. The proposed methodology consists of three major components which are combined together to perform the task of source characterization and forecasting. These components include Uncertainty Quantification, Optimal Information Collection, and Data Assimilation. Precise approximation of prior statistics is crucial to ensure performance of the source characterization process. In this work, an efficient quadrature based method has been utilized for quantification of uncertainty in plume dispersion models that are subject to uncertain source parameters. In addition, a fast and accurate approach is utilized for the approximation of probabilistic hazard maps, based on combination of polynomial chaos theory and the method of quadrature points. Besides precise quantification of uncertainty, having useful measurement data is also highly important to warranty accurate source parameter estimation. The performance of source characterization is highly affected by applied sensor orientation for data observation. Hence, a general framework has been developed for the optimal allocation of data observation sensors, to improve performance of the source characterization process. The key goal of this framework is to optimally locate a set of mobile sensors such that measurement of textit{better} data is guaranteed. This is achieved by maximizing the mutual information between model predictions

  3. Characterization of infiltration rates from landfills: supporting groundwater modeling efforts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moo-Young, Horace; Johnson, Barnes; Johnson, Ann; Carson, David; Lew, Christine; Liu, Salley; Hancocks, Katherine

    2004-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to review the literature to characterize infiltration rates from landfill liners to support groundwater modeling efforts. The focus of this investigation was on collecting studies that describe the performance of liners 'as installed' or 'as operated'. This document reviews the state of the science and practice on the infiltration rate through compacted clay liner (CCL) for 149 sites and geosynthetic clay liner (GCL) for 1 site. In addition, it reviews the leakage rate through geomembrane (GM) liners and composite liners for 259 sites. For compacted clay liners (CCL), there was limited information on infiltration rates (i.e., only 9 sites reported infiltration rates.), thus, it was difficult to develop a national distribution. The field hydraulic conductivities for natural clay liners range from 1 x 10(-9) cm s(-1) to 1 x 10(-4) cm s(-1), with an average of 6.5 x 10(-8) cm s(-1). There was limited information on geosynthetic clay liner. For composite lined and geomembrane systems, the leak detection system flow rates were utilized. The average monthly flow rate for composite liners ranged from 0-32 lphd for geomembrane and GCL systems to 0 to 1410 lphd for geomembrane and CCL systems. The increased infiltration for the geomembrane and CCL system may be attributed to consolidation water from the clay.

  4. Incidence, hospital costs and in-hospital mortality rates of surgically treated patients with traumatic cranial epidural hematoma

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Atci Ibrahim Burak

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Background: In this study, the patients who were operated in two clinics due to traumatic cranial epidural hematoma (EDH were assessed retrospectively and the factors that increase the costs were tried to be revealed through conducting cost analyses. Methods: The patients who were operated between 2010 and 2016 with the diagnosis of EDH were assessed in terms of age, sex, trauma etiology, Glasgow coma scale (GCS at admission, the period from trauma to hospital arrival, trauma-related injury in other organs, the localization of hematoma, the size of hematoma, length of stay in the intensive care unit (ICU, length of antibiotherapy administration, number of consultations conducted, total cost of in-hospital treatments of the patients and prognosis. Results: Distribution of GCS were, between 13-15 in 18 (36% patients, 9-13 in 23 (46% patients and 3-8 in 9 (18% patients. The reasons for emergency department admissions were fall from high in 29 (58% patients, assault in 11 (22% patients and motor vehicle accident in 10 (20% patients. The average cost per ICU stay was 2838 $ (range=343-20571 $. The average cost per surgical treatment was 314 $. ICU care was approximately 9 times more expensive than surgical treatment costs. The mortality rate of the study cohort was 14% (7 patients. Conclusion: The prolonged period of stay in the ICU, antibiotherapy and repeat head CTs increase the costs for patients who are surgically treated for EDH.

  5. MRI-detection rate and incidence of lumbar bleeding sources in 190 patients with non-aneurysmal SAH.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sepide Kashefiolasl

    Full Text Available Up to 15% of all spontaneous subarachnoid hemorrhages (SAH have a non-aneurysmal SAH (NASAH. The evaluation of SAH patients with negative digital subtraction angiography (DSA is sometimes a diagnostic challenge. Our goal in this study was to reassess the yield of standard MR-imaging of the complete spinal axis to rule out spinal bleeding sources in patients with NASAH.We retrospectively analyzed the spinal MRI findings in 190 patients with spontaneous NASAH, containing perimesencephalic (PM and non-perimesencephalic (NPM SAH, diagnosed by computer tomography (CT and/or lumbar puncture (LP, and negative 2nd DSA.190 NASAH patients were included in the study, divided into PM-SAH (n = 87; 46% and NPM-SAH (n = 103; 54%. Overall, 23 (22% patients had a CT negative SAH, diagnosed by positive LP. MR-imaging of the spinal axis detected two patients with lumbar ependymoma (n = 2; 1,05%. Both patients complained of radicular sciatic pain. The detection rate raised up to 25%, if only patients with radicular sciatic pain received an MRI.Routine radiological investigation of the complete spinal axis in NASAH patients is expensive and can not be recommended for standard procedure. However, patients with clinical signs of low-back/sciatic pain should be worked up for a spinal pathology.

  6. A quasi-independence model to estimate failure rates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Colombo, A.G.

    1988-01-01

    The use of a quasi-independence model to estimate failure rates is investigated. Gate valves of nuclear plants are considered, and two qualitative covariates are taken into account: plant location and reactor system. Independence between the two covariates and an exponential failure model are assumed. The failure rate of the components of a given system and plant is assumed to be a constant, but it may vary from one system to another and from one plant to another. This leads to the analysis of a contingency table. A particular feature of the model is the different operating time of the components in the various cells which can also be equal to zero. The concept of independence of the covariates is then replaced by that of quasi-independence. The latter definition, however, is used in a broader sense than usual. Suitable statistical tests are discussed and a numerical example illustrates the use of the method. (author)

  7. Neural Networks Modelling of Municipal Real Estate Market Rent Rates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muczyński Andrzej

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the results of research on the application of neural networks modelling of municipal real estate market rent rates. The test procedure was based on selected networks trained on the local real estate market data and transformation of the detected dependencies – through established models – to estimate the potential market rent rates of municipal premises. On this basis, the assessment of the adequacy of the actual market rent rates of municipal properties was made. Empirical research was conducted on the local real estate market of the city of Olsztyn in Poland. In order to describe the phenomenon of market rent rates formation an unidirectional three-layer network and a network of radial base was selected. Analyses showed a relatively low degree of convergence of the actual municipal rent rents with potential market rent rates. This degree was strongly varied depending on the type of business ran on the property and its’ social and economic impact. The applied research methodology and the obtained results can be used in order to rationalize municipal property management, including the activation of rental policy.

  8. Presence of animal feeding operations and community socioeconomic factors impact salmonellosis incidence rates: An ecological analysis using data from the Foodborne Diseases Active Surveillance Network (FoodNet), 2004-2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaw, Kristi S; Cruz-Cano, Raul; Jiang, Chengsheng; Malayil, Leena; Blythe, David; Ryan, Patricia; Sapkota, Amy R

    2016-10-01

    Nontyphoidal Salmonella spp. are a leading cause of foodborne illness. Risk factors for salmonellosis include the consumption of contaminated chicken, eggs, pork and beef. Agricultural, environmental and socioeconomic factors also have been associated with rates of Salmonella infection. However, to our knowledge, these factors have not been modeled together at the community-level to improve our understanding of whether rates of salmonellosis are variable across communities defined by differing factors. To address this knowledge gap, we obtained data on culture-confirmed Salmonella Typhimurium, S. Enteritidis, S. Newport and S. Javiana cases (2004-2010; n=14,297) from the Foodborne Diseases Active Surveillance Network (FoodNet), and socioeconomic, environmental and agricultural data from the 2010 Census of Population and Housing, the 2011 American Community Survey, and the 2007 U.S. Census of Agriculture. We linked data by zip code and derived incidence rate ratios using negative binomial regressions. Multiple community-level factors were associated with salmonellosis rates; however, our findings varied by state. For example, in Georgia (Incidence Rate Ratio (IRR)=1.01; 95% Confidence Interval (CI)=1.005-1.015) Maryland (IRR=1.01; 95% CI=1.003-1.015) and Tennessee (IRR=1.01; 95% CI=1.002-1.012), zip codes characterized by greater rurality had higher rates of S. Newport infections. The presence of broiler chicken operations, dairy operations and cattle operations in a zip code also was associated with significantly higher rates of infection with at least one serotype in states that are leading producers of these animal products. For instance, in Georgia and Tennessee, rates of S. Enteritidis infection were 48% (IRR=1.48; 95% CI=1.12-1.95) and 46% (IRR=1.46; 95% CI=1.17-1.81) higher in zip codes with broiler chicken operations compared to those without these operations. In Maryland, New Mexico and Tennessee, higher poverty levels in zip codes were associated with

  9. Modeling emission rates and exposures from outdoor cooking

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, Rufus; Princevac, Marko; Weltman, Robert; Ghasemian, Masoud; Arora, Narendra K.; Bond, Tami

    2017-09-01

    Approximately 3 billion individuals rely on solid fuels for cooking globally. For a large portion of these - an estimated 533 million - cooking is outdoors, where emissions from cookstoves pose a health risk to both cooks and other household and village members. Models that estimate emissions rates from stoves in indoor environments that would meet WHO air quality guidelines (AQG), explicitly don't account for outdoor cooking. The objectives of this paper are to link health based exposure guidelines with emissions from outdoor cookstoves, using a Monte Carlo simulation of cooking times from Haryana India coupled with inverse Gaussian dispersion models. Mean emission rates for outdoor cooking that would result in incremental increases in personal exposure equivalent to the WHO AQG during a 24-h period were 126 ± 13 mg/min for cooking while squatting and 99 ± 10 mg/min while standing. Emission rates modeled for outdoor cooking are substantially higher than emission rates for indoor cooking to meet AQG, because the models estimate impact of emissions on personal exposure concentrations rather than microenvironment concentrations, and because the smoke disperses more readily outdoors compared to indoor environments. As a result, many more stoves including the best performing solid-fuel biomass stoves would meet AQG when cooking outdoors, but may also result in substantial localized neighborhood pollution depending on housing density. Inclusion of the neighborhood impact of pollution should be addressed more formally both in guidelines on emissions rates from stoves that would be protective of health, and also in wider health impact evaluation efforts and burden of disease estimates. Emissions guidelines should better represent the different contexts in which stoves are being used, especially because in these contexts the best performing solid fuel stoves have the potential to provide significant benefits.

  10. The fusion rate in the transmission resonance model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jaendel, M.

    1992-01-01

    Resonant transmission of deuterons through a chain of target deuterons in a metal matrix has been suggested as an explanation for the cold fusion phenomena. In this paper the fusion rate in such transmission resonance models is estimated, and the basic physical constraints are discussed. The dominating contribution to the fusion yield is found to come from metastable states. The fusion rate is well described by the Wentzel-Kramer-Brillouin approximation and appears to be much too small to explain the experimental anomalies

  11. Regression Models and Fuzzy Logic Prediction of TBM Penetration Rate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Minh Vu Trieu

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents statistical analyses of rock engineering properties and the measured penetration rate of tunnel boring machine (TBM based on the data of an actual project. The aim of this study is to analyze the influence of rock engineering properties including uniaxial compressive strength (UCS, Brazilian tensile strength (BTS, rock brittleness index (BI, the distance between planes of weakness (DPW, and the alpha angle (Alpha between the tunnel axis and the planes of weakness on the TBM rate of penetration (ROP. Four (4 statistical regression models (two linear and two nonlinear are built to predict the ROP of TBM. Finally a fuzzy logic model is developed as an alternative method and compared to the four statistical regression models. Results show that the fuzzy logic model provides better estimations and can be applied to predict the TBM performance. The R-squared value (R2 of the fuzzy logic model scores the highest value of 0.714 over the second runner-up of 0.667 from the multiple variables nonlinear regression model.

  12. Regression Models and Fuzzy Logic Prediction of TBM Penetration Rate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minh, Vu Trieu; Katushin, Dmitri; Antonov, Maksim; Veinthal, Renno

    2017-03-01

    This paper presents statistical analyses of rock engineering properties and the measured penetration rate of tunnel boring machine (TBM) based on the data of an actual project. The aim of this study is to analyze the influence of rock engineering properties including uniaxial compressive strength (UCS), Brazilian tensile strength (BTS), rock brittleness index (BI), the distance between planes of weakness (DPW), and the alpha angle (Alpha) between the tunnel axis and the planes of weakness on the TBM rate of penetration (ROP). Four (4) statistical regression models (two linear and two nonlinear) are built to predict the ROP of TBM. Finally a fuzzy logic model is developed as an alternative method and compared to the four statistical regression models. Results show that the fuzzy logic model provides better estimations and can be applied to predict the TBM performance. The R-squared value (R2) of the fuzzy logic model scores the highest value of 0.714 over the second runner-up of 0.667 from the multiple variables nonlinear regression model.

  13. Spatial Inequalities in the Incidence of Colorectal Cancer and Associated Factors in the Neighborhoods of Tehran, Iran: Bayesian Spatial Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kamyar Mansori

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Objectives The aim of this study was to determine the factors associated with the spatial distribution of the incidence of colorectal cancer (CRC in the neighborhoods of Tehran, Iran using Bayesian spatial models. Methods This ecological study was implemented in Tehran on the neighborhood level. Socioeconomic variables, risk factors, and health costs were extracted from the Equity Assessment Study conducted in Tehran. The data on CRC incidence were extracted from the Iranian population-based cancer registry. The Besag-York-Mollié (BYM model was used to identify factors associated with the spatial distribution of CRC incidence. The software programs OpenBUGS version 3.2.3, ArcGIS 10.3, and GeoDa were used for the analysis. Results The Moran index was statistically significant for all the variables studied (p<0.05. The BYM model showed that having a women head of household (median standardized incidence ratio [SIR], 1.63; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.06 to 2.53, living in a rental house (median SIR, 0.82; 95% CI, 0.71 to 0.96, not consuming milk daily (median SIR, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.55 to 0.94 and having greater household health expenditures (median SIR, 1.34; 95% CI, 1.06 to 1.68 were associated with a statistically significant elevation in the SIR of CRC. The median (interquartile range and mean (standard deviation values of the SIR of CRC, with the inclusion of all the variables studied in the model, were 0.57 (1.01 and 1.05 (1.31, respectively. Conclusions Inequality was found in the spatial distribution of CRC incidence in Tehran on the neighborhood level. Paying attention to this inequality and the factors associated with it may be useful for resource allocation and developing preventive strategies in atrisk areas.

  14. The incidence rate of HIV type-1 drug resistance in patients on antiretroviral therapy: a nationwide population-based Danish cohort study 1999-2005

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Audelin, A.M.; Lohse, N.; Obel, N.

    2009-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Newer antiretroviral treatment regimens for HIV carry a lower risk of inducing drug resistance mutations. We estimated changes in incidence rates (IRs) of new mutations in HIV-infected individuals receiving highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART). METHODS: Population-based data...... were obtained from the Danish HIV Cohort Study and the Danish HIV Sequence Database. We included treatment-naive patients initiating HAART after December 1997 and computed time to first drug resistance mutation, identified as new mutations detected within 1 year after a 60-day period of treatment.......077). The IR of PI resistance decreased from 7.5 (1.4-21.8) in 1999 to 2.9 (0.7-11.4) in 2002-2003 (P=0.148). The IRs were low for specific resistance mutations, except for M184V (IR 5.6 [4.0-7.9]) and K103N (IR 8.2 [5.6-12.0]). CONCLUSIONS: The incidence of acquired drug resistance has decreased among HIV...

  15. Development of an EDV-supported decision instrument for site pre-selection of nuclear power plants. EDV-supported instrument for calculation of the space distribution of the collective dose rate and area contamination. Vol. 1. Radiation exposure through air- and water paths under authorized operating conditions and during incidents

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bruessermann, K; Eschhaus, M; Kreymborg, A; Muenster, M; Schommer, N

    1980-01-01

    The collective dose rate and the area contamination form a basis for site criteria going beyond the individual considerations of distribution of the population, hydrology, meteorology etc. The possibilities of radio-ecological models on the radiation exposure through air- and water paths during operation and incidents are described by example of Biblis, Muelheim-Kaerlich and Esensham. Comparative evaluations were effected for Fessenheim.

  16. Modeling and predicting historical volatility in exchange rate markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lahmiri, Salim

    2017-04-01

    Volatility modeling and forecasting of currency exchange rate is an important task in several business risk management tasks; including treasury risk management, derivatives pricing, and portfolio risk evaluation. The purpose of this study is to present a simple and effective approach for predicting historical volatility of currency exchange rate. The approach is based on a limited set of technical indicators as inputs to the artificial neural networks (ANN). To show the effectiveness of the proposed approach, it was applied to forecast US/Canada and US/Euro exchange rates volatilities. The forecasting results show that our simple approach outperformed the conventional GARCH and EGARCH with different distribution assumptions, and also the hybrid GARCH and EGARCH with ANN in terms of mean absolute error, mean of squared errors, and Theil's inequality coefficient. Because of the simplicity and effectiveness of the approach, it is promising for US currency volatility prediction tasks.

  17. Defining the relationship between Plasmodium falciparum parasite rate and clinical disease: statistical models for disease burden estimation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Snow Robert W

    2009-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Clinical malaria has proven an elusive burden to enumerate. Many cases go undetected by routine disease recording systems. Epidemiologists have, therefore, frequently defaulted to actively measuring malaria in population cohorts through time. Measuring the clinical incidence of malaria longitudinally is labour-intensive and impossible to undertake universally. There is a need, therefore, to define a relationship between clinical incidence and the easier and more commonly measured index of infection prevalence: the "parasite rate". This relationship can help provide an informed basis to define malaria burdens in areas where health statistics are inadequate. Methods Formal literature searches were conducted for Plasmodium falciparum malaria incidence surveys undertaken prospectively through active case detection at least every 14 days. The data were abstracted, standardized and geo-referenced. Incidence surveys were time-space matched with modelled estimates of infection prevalence derived from a larger database of parasite prevalence surveys and modelling procedures developed for a global malaria endemicity map. Several potential relationships between clinical incidence and infection prevalence were then specified in a non-parametric Gaussian process model with minimal, biologically informed, prior constraints. Bayesian inference was then used to choose between the candidate models. Results The suggested relationships with credible intervals are shown for the Africa and a combined America and Central and South East Asia regions. In both regions clinical incidence increased slowly and smoothly as a function of infection prevalence. In Africa, when infection prevalence exceeded 40%, clinical incidence reached a plateau of 500 cases per thousand of the population per annum. In the combined America and Central and South East Asia regions, this plateau was reached at 250 cases per thousand of the population per annum. A temporal

  18. Age-period-cohort modelling of breast cancer incidence in the Nordic countries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rostgaard, K; Vaeth, M; Holst, H

    2001-01-01

    into account. Assuming the age dependency of the incidence pattern in old age to be common for the Nordic countries, an internal comparison could be made among the four countries of the cohort effects and the period effects. The study indicated that the period effects have been of importance for the increase...... in breast cancer incidence seen in the Nordic countries. The widespread practice of neglecting the period effects in age-period-cohort analysis of time trends in breast cancer incidence therefore probably needs reconsideration. A key finding was that Danish women born in the 20th century seem to have been...... exposed to an increasing load of cohort borne breast cancer risk factors not experienced to the same extent by Norwegian women, whereas they were seemingly subjected to the same period effects....

  19. Development of a model for recording and evaluating incidents in radiotherapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ribeiro, A.L.C.; Paiva, E. de; Teixeira, F.C.S.

    2017-01-01

    Radiotherapy has been constantly improving to become increasingly effective, thus contributing to increase the chances of healing patients. In this sense, incident learning gained prominence during successive approaches to patient safety. The objective is to develop a tool for recording and analyzing incidents in radiotherapy and applying it to clinics in Rio de Janeiro in order to implement the policy of quality management and safety culture. Steps were taken that involved the analysis of the process maps for the enrichment of the system (called the Standardized System of Incidents in Radiotherapy - SPIRad) that already has a version in physical form. The proposal is the conversion of this form to a digital tool to be used through the intranet. The next step is to apply it to radiotherapy clinics in Rio de Janeiro and evaluate the results obtained with the objective of possible improvements through feedback from users

  20. Sensitivity of tropospheric heating rates to aerosols: A modeling study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hanna, A.F.; Shankar, U.; Mathur, R.

    1994-01-01

    The effect of aerosols on the radiation balance is critical to the energetics of the atmosphere. Because of the relatively long residence of specific types of aerosols in the atmosphere and their complex thermal and chemical interactions, understanding their behavior is crucial for understanding global climate change. The authors used the Regional Particulate Model (RPM) to simulate aerosols in the eastern United States in order to identify the aerosol characteristics of specific rural and urban areas these characteristics include size, concentration, and vertical profile. A radiative transfer model based on an improved δ-Eddington approximation with 26 spectral intervals spanning the solar spectrum was then used to analyze the tropospheric heating rates associated with these different aerosol distributions. The authors compared heating rates forced by differences in surface albedo associated with different land-use characteristics, and found that tropospheric heating and surface cooling are sensitive to surface properties such as albedo

  1. Zero-inflated beta regression model for leaf citrus canker incidence in orange genotypes grafted onto different rootstocks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oilson Alberto Gonzatto Junior

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Data with excess zeros are frequently found in practice, and the recommended analysis is to use models that adequately address the counting of zero observations. In this study, the Zero Inflated Beta Regression Model (BeZI was used on experimental data to describe the mean incidence of leaf citrus canker in orange groves under the influence of genotype and rootstocks of origin. Based on the model, it was possible to quantify the odds that a null observation to mean incidence comes from a particular plant according to genotype and rootstock, and estimate its expected value according to this combination. Laranja Caipira rootstock proved to be the most resistant to leaf citrus canker as well as Limão Cravo proved to be the most fragile. The Ipiguá IAC, Arapongas, EEL and Olímpia genotypes have statistically equivalent chances.

  2. Modeling of Bit Error Rate in Cascaded 2R Regenerators

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Öhman, Filip; Mørk, Jesper

    2006-01-01

    and the regenerating nonlinearity is investigated. It is shown that an increase in nonlinearity can compensate for an increase in noise figure or decrease in signal power. Furthermore, the influence of the improvement in signal extinction ratio along the cascade and the importance of choosing the proper threshold......This paper presents a simple and efficient model for estimating the bit error rate in a cascade of optical 2R-regenerators. The model includes the influences of of amplifier noise, finite extinction ratio and nonlinear reshaping. The interplay between the different signal impairments...

  3. Malaria model with periodic mosquito birth and death rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dembele, Bassidy; Friedman, Avner; Yakubu, Abdul-Aziz

    2009-07-01

    In this paper, we introduce a model of malaria, a disease that involves a complex life cycle of parasites, requiring both human and mosquito hosts. The novelty of the model is the introduction of periodic coefficients into the system of one-dimensional equations, which account for the seasonal variations (wet and dry seasons) in the mosquito birth and death rates. We define a basic reproduction number R(0) that depends on the periodic coefficients and prove that if R(0)1 then the disease is endemic and may even be periodic.

  4. Variation in Primary Cesarean Delivery Rates by Individual Physician within a Single Hospital Laborist Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    METZ, Torri D.; ALLSHOUSE, Amanda A.; GILBERT, Sara A Babcock; DOYLE, Reina; TONG, Angie; CAREY, J. Christopher

    2016-01-01

    delivery rates of the highest (35.9%) and lowest (12.5%) physicians was observed. When adjusted for hypertensive disease, gestational age at delivery, race, and maternal age, the physician effect remained overall significant (p=0.0265) with the difference between physicians expanding to 3.58 (1.72-7.47, pcesarean delivery rates, patient demographics and clinical characteristics of the population managed were clinically similar and not different statistically. The primary indication for cesarean delivery did not differ between groups. Similarly there were no differences in short-term neonatal outcomes including Apgar scores, arterial cord blood pH or incidence of neonatal encephalopathy. Conclusion The 3-fold variation in cesarean delivery rates between laborists at the same institution without observed differences in patient characteristics or short-term neonatal outcomes draws attention to the impact of individual physician decision-making on cesarean delivery rates even within a laborist care model. Further exploration of the role of individual physician decision-making on cesarean rates may help to better elucidate the effect of the laborist model. PMID:26922481

  5. Main pumps lost incident in the nuclear power plant Atucha I. Modelling with RELAP5/MOD3.2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ventura, M.A.; Rosso, R.D.

    1998-01-01

    Time evolution of natural circulation in the nuclear power plant Atucha I (CNA-I), in a main pumps lost incident because of the lost of external power feed, is analyzed. It leads to a strong stop transient, without an important blow down, from a forced nominal flow to a natural circulation one. The results are obtained from RELAP5/MOD3.2 code's modeling. The study is based on the refrigeration conditions analysis, during the first minutes of the reactor out of service. Previously to the transient, work had been done to obtain the plant steady state, with design parameters in operation conditions at 100 % of power. The object is that the actual plant state would be represented. In this way, each plant part (steam generators, reactor, pressurizer, pumps) had been modeled in separated form with the appropriate boundary conditions, to be used in the whole circuit simulation. The developed model, had been validated making use of the comparison between the values obtained to the principal thermodynamic parameters with the plant recorded values, in the same incident. The results are satisfactory in a way. On the other hand, it has suggested some modeling changes. The RELAP5/MOD3.2 capability to model the thermodynamic phenomena in a PHWR plant has been verified when, according to the mentioned incident, the flow pass from a nominal forced flow, to one which is governed by natural circulation, still with the CNA-I untypical design conditions. (author) [es

  6. Modeling Electric Discharges with Entropy Production Rate Principles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas Christen

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Under which circumstances are variational principles based on entropy production rate useful tools for modeling steady states of electric (gas discharge systems far from equilibrium? It is first shown how various different approaches, as Steenbeck’s minimum voltage and Prigogine’s minimum entropy production rate principles are related to the maximum entropy production rate principle (MEPP. Secondly, three typical examples are discussed, which provide a certain insight in the structure of the models that are candidates for MEPP application. It is then thirdly argued that MEPP, although not being an exact physical law, may provide reasonable model parameter estimates, provided the constraints contain the relevant (nonlinear physical effects and the parameters to be determined are related to disregarded weak constraints that affect mainly global entropy production. Finally, it is additionally conjectured that a further reason for the success of MEPP in certain far from equilibrium systems might be based on a hidden linearity of the underlying kinetic equation(s.

  7. Radionuclide release rates from spent fuel for performance assessment modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Curtis, D.B.

    1994-01-01

    In a scenario of aqueous transport from a high-level radioactive waste repository, the concentration of radionuclides in water in contact with the waste constitutes the source term for transport models, and as such represents a fundamental component of all performance assessment models. Many laboratory experiments have been done to characterize release rates and understand processes influencing radionuclide release rates from irradiated nuclear fuel. Natural analogues of these waste forms have been studied to obtain information regarding the long-term stability of potential waste forms in complex natural systems. This information from diverse sources must be brought together to develop and defend methods used to define source terms for performance assessment models. In this manuscript examples of measures of radionuclide release rates from spent nuclear fuel or analogues of nuclear fuel are presented. Each example represents a very different approach to obtaining a numerical measure and each has its limitations. There is no way to obtain an unambiguous measure of this or any parameter used in performance assessment codes for evaluating the effects of processes operative over many millennia. The examples are intended to suggest by example that in the absence of the ability to evaluate accuracy and precision, consistency of a broadly based set of data can be used as circumstantial evidence to defend the choice of parameters used in performance assessments

  8. Abundance, biting behaviour and parous rate of anopheline mosquito species in relation to malaria incidence in gold-mining areas of southern Venezuela.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moreno, J E; Rubio-Palis, Y; Páez, E; Pérez, E; Sánchez, V

    2007-12-01

    A longitudinal entomological and epidemiological study was conducted in five localities of southern Venezuela between January 1999 and April 2000 to determine the abundance, biting behaviour and parity of anopheline mosquitoes (Diptera: Culicidae) in relation to climate variables and malaria incidence. A total of 3685 female anopheline mosquitoes, representing six species, were collected. The most abundant species were Anopheles marajoara Galvão & Damasceno (60.7%) and Anopheles darlingi Root (35.1%), which together represented 95.8% of the total anophelines collected. Abundance and species distribution varied by locality. Malaria prevalence varied from 12.5 to 21.4 cases per 1000 population. Transmission occurred throughout the year; the annual parasite index (API) for the study period was 813.0 cases per 1000 population, with a range of 71.6-2492 per 1000 population, depending on locality. Plasmodium vivax (Grassi & Feletti) (Coccidia: Plasmodiidae) accounted for 78.6% of cases, Plasmodium falciparum (Welch) for 21.4% and mixed infections (Pv+Pf) for 0.05) between mosquito abundance and rainfall. Correlations between malaria incidence by parasite species and mosquito abundance were not significant (P > 0.05). Monthly parous rates were similar for An. marajoara and An. darlingi throughout the year, with two peaks that coincided with the dry-rainy transition period and the period of less rain. Peaks in the incidence of malaria cases were observed 1 month after major peaks in biting rates of parous anophelines. Anopheles darlingi engages in biting activity throughout the night, with two minor peaks at 23.00-00.00 hours and 03.00-04.00 hours. Anopheles marajoara has a different pattern, with a biting peak at 19.00-21.00 hours and 76.6% of biting occurring before midnight. Although both vectors bite indoors and outdoors, they showed a highly significant (P < 0.01) degree of exophagic behaviour. The present study constitutes the first effort to characterize the

  9. Inverse modelling of radionuclide release rates using gamma dose rate observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamburger, Thomas; Evangeliou, Nikolaos; Stohl, Andreas; von Haustein, Christoph; Thummerer, Severin; Wallner, Christian

    2015-04-01

    Severe accidents in nuclear power plants such as the historical accident in Chernobyl 1986 or the more recent disaster in the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant in 2011 have drastic impacts on the population and environment. Observations and dispersion modelling of the released radionuclides help to assess the regional impact of such nuclear accidents. Modelling the increase of regional radionuclide activity concentrations, which results from nuclear accidents, underlies a multiplicity of uncertainties. One of the most significant uncertainties is the estimation of the source term. That is, the time dependent quantification of the released spectrum of radionuclides during the course of the nuclear accident. The quantification of the source term may either remain uncertain (e.g. Chernobyl, Devell et al., 1995) or rely on estimates given by the operators of the nuclear power plant. Precise measurements are mostly missing due to practical limitations during the accident. The release rates of radionuclides at the accident site can be estimated using inverse modelling (Davoine and Bocquet, 2007). The accuracy of the method depends amongst others on the availability, reliability and the resolution in time and space of the used observations. Radionuclide activity concentrations are observed on a relatively sparse grid and the temporal resolution of available data may be low within the order of hours or a day. Gamma dose rates, on the other hand, are observed routinely on a much denser grid and higher temporal resolution and provide therefore a wider basis for inverse modelling (Saunier et al., 2013). We present a new inversion approach, which combines an atmospheric dispersion model and observations of radionuclide activity concentrations and gamma dose rates to obtain the source term of radionuclides. We use the Lagrangian particle dispersion model FLEXPART (Stohl et al., 1998; Stohl et al., 2005) to model the atmospheric transport of the released radionuclides. The

  10. Tantalum strength model incorporating temperature, strain rate and pressure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lim, Hojun; Battaile, Corbett; Brown, Justin; Lane, Matt

    Tantalum is a body-centered-cubic (BCC) refractory metal that is widely used in many applications in high temperature, strain rate and pressure environments. In this work, we propose a physically-based strength model for tantalum that incorporates effects of temperature, strain rate and pressure. A constitutive model for single crystal tantalum is developed based on dislocation kink-pair theory, and calibrated to measurements on single crystal specimens. The model is then used to predict deformations of single- and polycrystalline tantalum. In addition, the proposed strength model is implemented into Sandia's ALEGRA solid dynamics code to predict plastic deformations of tantalum in engineering-scale applications at extreme conditions, e.g. Taylor impact tests and Z machine's high pressure ramp compression tests, and the results are compared with available experimental data. Sandia National Laboratories is a multi program laboratory managed and operated by Sandia Corporation, a wholly owned subsidiary of Lockheed Martin Corporation, for the U.S. Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-AC04-94AL85000.

  11. Rate-Based Model Predictive Control of Turbofan Engine Clearance

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeCastro, Jonathan A.

    2006-01-01

    An innovative model predictive control strategy is developed for control of nonlinear aircraft propulsion systems and sub-systems. At the heart of the controller is a rate-based linear parameter-varying model that propagates the state derivatives across the prediction horizon, extending prediction fidelity to transient regimes where conventional models begin to lose validity. The new control law is applied to a demanding active clearance control application, where the objectives are to tightly regulate blade tip clearances and also anticipate and avoid detrimental blade-shroud rub occurrences by optimally maintaining a predefined minimum clearance. Simulation results verify that the rate-based controller is capable of satisfying the objectives during realistic flight scenarios where both a conventional Jacobian-based model predictive control law and an unconstrained linear-quadratic optimal controller are incapable of doing so. The controller is evaluated using a variety of different actuators, illustrating the efficacy and versatility of the control approach. It is concluded that the new strategy has promise for this and other nonlinear aerospace applications that place high importance on the attainment of control objectives during transient regimes.

  12. Mechanistic Modeling of Water Replenishment Rate of Zeer Refrigerator

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. N. Nwankwojike

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available A model for predicting the water replenishment rate of zeer pot refrigerator was developed in this study using mechanistic modeling approach and evaluated at Obowo, Imo State, Nigeria using six fruits, tomatoes, guava, okra, banana, orange and avocado pear. The developed model confirmed zeer pot water replenishment rate as a function of ambient temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, thermal conductivity of the pot materials and sand, density of air and water vapor, permeability coefficient of clay and heat transfer coefficient of water into air, circumferential length, height of pot, geometrical profile of the pot, heat load of the food preserved, heat flow into the device and gradient at which the pot is placed above ground level. Compared to the conventional approach of water replenishment, performance analysis results revealed 44% to 58% water economy when the zeer pot’s water was replenished based on the model’s prediction; while there was no significant difference in the shelf-life of the fruits preserved with both replenishment methods. Application of the developed water replenishment model facilitates optimal water usage in this system, thereby reducing operational cost of zeer pot refrigerator.

  13. Rate control management of atrial fibrillation: may a mathematical model suggest an ideal heart rate?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matteo Anselmino

    Full Text Available Despite the routine prescription of rate control therapy for atrial fibrillation (AF, clinical evidence demonstrating a heart rate target is lacking. Aim of the present study was to run a mathematical model simulating AF episodes with a different heart rate (HR to predict hemodynamic parameters for each situation.The lumped model, representing the pumping heart together with systemic and pulmonary circuits, was run to simulate AF with HR of 50, 70, 90, 110 and 130 bpm, respectively.Left ventricular pressure increased by 57%, from 33.92±37.56 mmHg to 53.15±47.56 mmHg, and mean systemic arterial pressure increased by 27%, from 82.66±14.04 mmHg to 105.3±7.6 mmHg, at the 50 and 130 bpm simulations, respectively. Stroke volume (from 77.45±8.50 to 39.09±8.08 mL, ejection fraction (from 61.10±4.40 to 39.32±5.42% and stroke work (SW, from 0.88±0.04 to 0.58±0.09 J decreased by 50, 36 and 34%, at the 50 and 130 bpm simulations, respectively. In addition, oxygen consumption indexes (rate pressure product - RPP, tension time index per minute - TTI/min, and pressure volume area per minute - PVA/min increased from the 50 to the 130 bpm simulation, respectively, by 186% (from 5598±1939 to 15995±3219 mmHg/min, 56% (from 2094±265 to 3257±301 mmHg s/min and 102% (from 57.99±17.90 to 117.4±26.0 J/min. In fact, left ventricular efficiency (SW/PVA decreased from 80.91±2.91% at 50 bpm to 66.43±3.72% at the 130 bpm HR simulation.Awaiting compulsory direct clinical evidences, the present mathematical model suggests that lower HRs during permanent AF relates to improved hemodynamic parameters, cardiac efficiency, and lower oxygen consumption.

  14. Rate control management of atrial fibrillation: may a mathematical model suggest an ideal heart rate?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anselmino, Matteo; Scarsoglio, Stefania; Camporeale, Carlo; Saglietto, Andrea; Gaita, Fiorenzo; Ridolfi, Luca

    2015-01-01

    Despite the routine prescription of rate control therapy for atrial fibrillation (AF), clinical evidence demonstrating a heart rate target is lacking. Aim of the present study was to run a mathematical model simulating AF episodes with a different heart rate (HR) to predict hemodynamic parameters for each situation. The lumped model, representing the pumping heart together with systemic and pulmonary circuits, was run to simulate AF with HR of 50, 70, 90, 110 and 130 bpm, respectively. Left ventricular pressure increased by 57%, from 33.92±37.56 mmHg to 53.15±47.56 mmHg, and mean systemic arterial pressure increased by 27%, from 82.66±14.04 mmHg to 105.3±7.6 mmHg, at the 50 and 130 bpm simulations, respectively. Stroke volume (from 77.45±8.50 to 39.09±8.08 mL), ejection fraction (from 61.10±4.40 to 39.32±5.42%) and stroke work (SW, from 0.88±0.04 to 0.58±0.09 J) decreased by 50, 36 and 34%, at the 50 and 130 bpm simulations, respectively. In addition, oxygen consumption indexes (rate pressure product - RPP, tension time index per minute - TTI/min, and pressure volume area per minute - PVA/min) increased from the 50 to the 130 bpm simulation, respectively, by 186% (from 5598±1939 to 15995±3219 mmHg/min), 56% (from 2094±265 to 3257±301 mmHg s/min) and 102% (from 57.99±17.90 to 117.4±26.0 J/min). In fact, left ventricular efficiency (SW/PVA) decreased from 80.91±2.91% at 50 bpm to 66.43±3.72% at the 130 bpm HR simulation. Awaiting compulsory direct clinical evidences, the present mathematical model suggests that lower HRs during permanent AF relates to improved hemodynamic parameters, cardiac efficiency, and lower oxygen consumption.

  15. Mathematical modeling of HIV prevention measures including pre-exposure prophylaxis on HIV incidence in South Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Sun Bean; Yoon, Myoungho; Ku, Nam Su; Kim, Min Hyung; Song, Je Eun; Ahn, Jin Young; Jeong, Su Jin; Kim, Changsoo; Kwon, Hee-Dae; Lee, Jeehyun; Smith, Davey M; Choi, Jun Yong

    2014-01-01

    Multiple prevention measures have the possibility of impacting HIV incidence in South Korea, including early diagnosis, early treatment, and pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP). We investigated how each of these interventions could impact the local HIV epidemic, especially among men who have sex with men (MSM), who have become the major risk group in South Korea. A mathematical model was used to estimate the effects of each these interventions on the HIV epidemic in South Korea over the next 40 years, as compared to the current situation. We constructed a mathematical model of HIV infection among MSM in South Korea, dividing the MSM population into seven groups, and simulated the effects of early antiretroviral therapy (ART), early diagnosis, PrEP, and combination interventions on the incidence and prevalence of HIV infection, as compared to the current situation that would be expected without any new prevention measures. Overall, the model suggested that the most effective prevention measure would be PrEP. Even though PrEP effectiveness could be lessened by increased unsafe sex behavior, PrEP use was still more beneficial than the current situation. In the model, early diagnosis of HIV infection was also effectively decreased HIV incidence. However, early ART did not show considerable effectiveness. As expected, it would be most effective if all interventions (PrEP, early diagnosis and early treatment) were implemented together. This model suggests that PrEP and early diagnosis could be a very effective way to reduce HIV incidence in South Korea among MSM.

  16. A model for predicting wear rates in tooth enamel.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borrero-Lopez, Oscar; Pajares, Antonia; Constantino, Paul J; Lawn, Brian R

    2014-09-01

    It is hypothesized that wear of enamel is sensitive to the presence of sharp particulates in oral fluids and masticated foods. To this end, a generic model for predicting wear rates in brittle materials is developed, with specific application to tooth enamel. Wear is assumed to result from an accumulation of elastic-plastic micro-asperity events. Integration over all such events leads to a wear rate relation analogous to Archard׳s law, but with allowance for variation in asperity angle and compliance. The coefficient K in this relation quantifies the wear severity, with an arbitrary distinction between 'mild' wear (low K) and 'severe' wear (high K). Data from the literature and in-house wear-test experiments on enamel specimens in lubricant media (water, oil) with and without sharp third-body particulates (silica, diamond) are used to validate the model. Measured wear rates can vary over several orders of magnitude, depending on contact asperity conditions, accounting for the occurrence of severe enamel removal in some human patients (bruxing). Expressions for the depth removal rate and number of cycles to wear down occlusal enamel in the low-crowned tooth forms of some mammals are derived, with tooth size and enamel thickness as key variables. The role of 'hard' versus 'soft' food diets in determining evolutionary paths in different hominin species is briefly considered. A feature of the model is that it does not require recourse to specific material removal mechanisms, although processes involving microplastic extrusion and microcrack coalescence are indicated. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  17. Modelling spatial concordance between Rocky Mountain spotted fever disease incidence and habitat probability of its vector Dermacentor variabilis (American dog tick).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atkinson, Samuel F; Sarkar, Sahotra; Aviña, Aldo; Schuermann, Jim A; Williamson, Phillip

    2012-11-01

    The spatial distribution of Dermacentor variabilis, the most commonly identified vector of the bacterium Rickettsia rickettsii which causes Rocky Mountain spotted fever (RMSF) in humans, and the spatial distribution of RMSF, have not been previously studied in the south central United States of America, particularly in Texas. From an epidemiological perspective, one would tend to hypothesise that there would be a high degree of spatial concordance between the habitat suitability for the tick and the incidence of the disease. Both maximum-entropy modelling of the tick's habitat suitability and spatially adaptive filters modelling of the human incidence of RMSF disease provide reliable portrayals of the spatial distributions of these phenomenons. Even though rates of human cases of RMSF in Texas and rates of Dermacentor ticks infected with Rickettsia bacteria are both relatively low in Texas, the best data currently available allows a preliminary indication that the assumption of high levels of spatial concordance would not be correct in Texas (Kappa coefficient of agreement = 0.17). It will take substantially more data to provide conclusive findings, and to understand the results reported here, but this study provides an approach to begin understanding the discrepancy.

  18. Modelling spatial concordance between Rocky Mountain spotted fever disease incidence and habitat probability of its vector Dermacentor variabilis (American dog tick

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Samuel F. Atkinson

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available The spatial distribution of Dermacentor variabilis, the most commonly identified vector of the bacterium Rickettsia rickettsii which causes Rocky Mountain spotted fever (RMSF in humans, and the spatial distribution of RMSF, have not been previously studied in the south central United States of America, particularly in Texas. From an epidemiological perspective, one would tend to hypothesise that there would be a high degree of spatial concordance between the habitat suitability for the tick and the incidence of the disease. Both maximum-entropy modelling of the tick’s habitat suitability and spatially adaptive filters modelling of the human incidence of RMSF disease provide reliable portrayals of the spatial distributions of these phenomenons. Even though rates of human cases of RMSF in Texas and rates of Dermacentor ticks infected with Rickettsia bacteria are both relatively low in Texas, the best data currently available allows a preliminary indication that the assumption of high levels of spatial concordance would not be correct in Texas (Kappa coefficient of agreement = 0.17. It will take substantially more data to provide conclusive findings, and to understand the results reported here, but this study provides an approach to begin understanding the discrepancy.

  19. Current crisis or artifact of surveillance: insights into rebound chlamydia rates from dynamic modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vickers David M

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background After initially falling in the face of intensified control efforts, reported rates of sexually transmitted chlamydia in many developed countries are rising. Recent hypotheses for this phenomenon have broadly focused on improved case finding or an increase in the prevalence. Because of many complex interactions behind the spread of infectious diseases, dynamic models of infection transmission are an effective means to guide learning, and assess quantitative conjectures of epidemiological processes. The objective of this paper is to bring a unique and robust perspective to observed chlamydial patterns through analyzing surveillance data with mathematical models of infection transmission. Methods This study integrated 25-year testing volume data from the Canadian province of Saskatchewan with one susceptible-infected-treated-susceptible and three susceptible-infected-treated-removed compartmental models. Calibration of model parameters to fit observed 25-year case notification data, after being combined with testing records, placed constraints on model behaviour and allowed for an approximation of chlamydia prevalence to be estimated. Model predictions were compared to observed case notification trends, and extensive sensitivity analyses were performed to confirm the robustness of model results. Results Model predictions accurately mirrored historic chlamydial trends including an observed rebound in the mid 1990s. For all models examined, the results repeatedly highlighted that increased testing volumes, rather than changes in the sensitivity and specificity of testing technologies, sexual behaviour, or truncated immunological responses brought about by treatment can, explain the increase in observed chlamydia case notifications. Conclusions Our results highlight the significant impact testing volume can have on observed incidence rates, and that simple explanations for these observed increases appear to have been dismissed in

  20. Differences in radial expansion force among inferior vena cava filter models support documented perforation rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robins, J Eli; Ragai, Ihab; Yamaguchi, Dean J

    2018-05-01

    Inferior vena cava (IVC) filters are used in patients at risk for pulmonary embolism who cannot be anticoagulated. Unfortunately, these filters are not without risk, and complications include perforation, migration, and filter fracture. The most prevalent complication is filter perforation of the IVC, with incidence varying among filter models. To our knowledge, the mechanical properties of IVC filters have not been evaluated and are not readily available through the manufacturer. This study sought to determine whether differences in mechanical properties are similar to differences in documented perforation rates. The radial expansion forces of Greenfield (Boston Scientific, Marlborough, Mass), Cook Celect (Cook Medical, Bloomington, Ind), and Cook Platinum filters were analyzed with three replicates per group. The intrinsic force exerted by the filter on the measuring device was collected in real time during controlled expansion. Replicates were averaged and significance was determined by calculating analysis of covariance using SAS software (SAS Institute, Cary, NC). Each filter model generated a significantly different radial expansion force (P filter, followed by the Cook Celect and Greenfield filters. Radial force dispersion during expansion was greatest in the Cook Celect, followed by the Cook Platinum and Greenfield filters. Differences in radial expansion forces among IVC filter models are consistent with documented perforation rates. Cook Celect IVC filters have a higher incidence of perforation compared with Greenfield filters when they are left in place for >90 days. Evaluation of Cook Celect filters yielded a significantly higher radial expansion force at minimum caval diameter, with greater force dispersion during expansion. Copyright © 2018 Society for Vascular Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. The application of equilibrium models to incidence situations using the example of the exposure pathway human milk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Steiner, Martin; Karcher, Klaus; Nosske, Dietmar

    2012-01-01

    The radiation exposure after a short-term release of radioactive substances is often calculated assuming equilibrium conditions. An example is that of the German Incident Calculation Bases for nuclear power plants with pressurized water reactors. Here, the contamination of human milk is calculated using transfer factors. Applying this equilibrium model to incident situations raises the question whether baby's radiation exposure is adequately assessed. This contribution shows that compliance with the relevant dose limits of paragraph 49 of the German Radiation Protection Ordinance is ensured for design basis accidents on the assumption that the hypothetical breastfeeding period starts at the beginning of the activity release. Comparative analyses were performed against the biokinetic models applied by ICRP for radiation protection purposes, taking the reference nuclides 137 Cs, 90 Sr, 131 I, 241 Am and long-lived plutonium isotopes as examples. (orig.)

  2. The application of equilibrium models to incidence situations using the example of the exposure pathway human milk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Steiner, Martin; Karcher, Klaus; Nosske, Dietmar [Bundesamt fuer Strahlenschutz, Oberschleissheim (Germany)

    2012-06-15

    The radiation exposure after a short-term release of radioactive substances is often calculated assuming equilibrium conditions. An example is that of the German Incident Calculation Bases for nuclear power plants with pressurized water reactors. Here, the contamination of human milk is calculated using transfer factors. Applying this equilibrium model to incident situations raises the question whether baby's radiation exposure is adequately assessed. This contribution shows that compliance with the relevant dose limits of paragraph 49 of the German Radiation Protection Ordinance is ensured for design basis accidents on the assumption that the hypothetical breastfeeding period starts at the beginning of the activity release. Comparative analyses were performed against the biokinetic models applied by ICRP for radiation protection purposes, taking the reference nuclides {sup 137}Cs, {sup 90}Sr, {sup 131}I, {sup 241}Am and long-lived plutonium isotopes as examples. (orig.)

  3. Bayes estimation of the general hazard rate model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sarhan, A.

    1999-01-01

    In reliability theory and life testing models, the life time distributions are often specified by choosing a relevant hazard rate function. Here a general hazard rate function h(t)=a+bt c-1 , where c, a, b are constants greater than zero, is considered. The parameter c is assumed to be known. The Bayes estimators of (a,b) based on the data of type II/item-censored testing without replacement are obtained. A large simulation study using Monte Carlo Method is done to compare the performance of Bayes with regression estimators of (a,b). The criterion for comparison is made based on the Bayes risk associated with the respective estimator. Also, the influence of the number of failed items on the accuracy of the estimators (Bayes and regression) is investigated. Estimations for the parameters (a,b) of the linearly increasing hazard rate model h(t)=a+bt, where a, b are greater than zero, can be obtained as the special case, letting c=2

  4. Spallation model for the high strain rates range

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dekel, E.; Eliezer, S.; Henis, Z.; Moshe, E.; Ludmirsky, A.; Goldberg, I. B.

    1998-11-01

    Measurements of the dynamic spall strength in aluminum and copper shocked by a high power laser to pressures of hundreds of kbars show a rapid increase in the spall strength with the strain rate at values of about 107 s-1. We suggest that this behavior is a result of a change in the spall mechanism. At low strain rates the spall is caused by the motion and coalescence of material's initial flaws. At high strain rates there is not enough time for the flaws to move and the spall is produced by the formation and coalescence of additional cavities where the interatomic forces become dominant. Material under tensile stress is in a metastable condition and cavities of a critical radius are formed in it due to thermal fluctuations. These cavities grow due to the tension. The total volume of the voids grow until the material disintegrates at the spall plane. Simplified calculations based on this model, describing the metal as a viscous liquid, give results in fairly good agreement with the experimental data and predict the increase in spall strength at high strain rates.

  5. Modelling the bioconversion of cellulose into microbial products: rate limitations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Asenjo, J A

    1984-12-01

    The direct bioconversion of cellulose into microbial products carried out as a simultaneous saccharification and fermentation has a strong effect on the rates of cellulose degradation because cellobiose and glucose inhibition of the reaction are circumvented. A general mathematical model of the kinetics of this bioconversion has been developed. Its use in representing aerobic systems and in the analysis of the kinetic limitations has been investigated. Simulations have been carried out to find the rate limiting steps in slow fermentations and in rapid ones as determined by the specific rate of product formation. The requirements for solubilising and depolymerising enzyme activities (cellulase and cellobiase) in these systems has been determined. The activity that have been obtained for fungal cellulases are adequate for the kinetic requirements of the fastest fermentative strains. The results also show that for simultaneous bioconversions where strong cellobiose and glucose inhibition is overcome, no additional cellobiase is necessary to increase the rate of product formation. These results are useful for the selection of cellolytic micro-organisms and in the determination of enzymes to be cloned in recombinant strains. 17 references.

  6. Stochastic model of microcredit interest rate in Morocco

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ghita Bennouna

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Access to microcredit can have a beneficial effect on the well-being of low-income households excluded from the traditional banking system. It allows this population to receive affordable financial services to help them to meet their needs and to improve their living conditions. However to provide access to credit, microfinance institutions should ensure not only their social mission but also commercial and financial mission to enable the institution to perpetuate and become self-sufficient. To this end, MFIs (microfinance institutions must apply an interest rate that covers their costs and risk, while generating profits, Also microentrepreneurs need, to this end, to ensure the profitability of their activities. This paper presents the microfinance sector in Morocco. It focuses then on the interest rate applied by the Moroccan microfinance institutions; it provides also a comparative study between Morocco and other comparable countries in terms of interest rates charged to borrowers. Finally, this article presents a stochastic model of the interest rate in microcredit built in random loan repayment periods and on a real example of the program of loans of microfinance institution in Morocco

  7. Crash rates analysis in China using a spatial panel model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wonmongo Lacina Soro

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available The consideration of spatial externalities in traffic safety analysis is of paramount importance for the success of road safety policies. Yet, the quasi-totality of spatial dependence studies on crash rates is performed within the framework of single-equation spatial cross-sectional studies. The present study extends the spatial cross-sectional scheme to a spatial fixed-effects panel model estimated using the maximum likelihood method. The spatial units are the 31 administrative regions of mainland China over the period 2004–2013. The presence of neighborhood effects is evidenced through the Moran's I statistic. Consistent with previous studies, the analysis reveals that omitting the spatial effects in traffic safety analysis is likely to bias the estimation results. The spatial and error lags are all positive and statistically significant suggesting similarities of crash rates pattern in neighboring regions. Some other explanatory variables, such as freight traffic, the length of paved roads and the populations of age 65 and above are related to higher rates while the opposite trend is observed for the Gross Regional Product, the urban unemployment rate and passenger traffic.

  8. Time series analysis of dengue incidence in Guadeloupe, French West Indies: Forecasting models using climate variables as predictors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ruche Guy

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background During the last decades, dengue viruses have spread throughout the Americas region, with an increase in the number of severe forms of dengue. The surveillance system in Guadeloupe (French West Indies is currently operational for the detection of early outbreaks of dengue. The goal of the study was to improve this surveillance system by assessing a modelling tool to predict the occurrence of dengue epidemics few months ahead and thus to help an efficient dengue control. Methods The Box-Jenkins approach allowed us to fit a Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA model of dengue incidence from 2000 to 2006 using clinical suspected cases. Then, this model was used for calculating dengue incidence for the year 2007 compared with observed data, using three different approaches: 1 year-ahead, 3 months-ahead and 1 month-ahead. Finally, we assessed the impact of meteorological variables (rainfall, temperature and relative humidity on the prediction of dengue incidence and outbreaks, incorporating them in the model fitting the best. Results The 3 months-ahead approach was the most appropriate for an effective and operational public health response, and the most accurate (Root Mean Square Error, RMSE = 0.85. Relative humidity at lag-7 weeks, minimum temperature at lag-5 weeks and average temperature at lag-11 weeks were variables the most positively correlated to dengue incidence in Guadeloupe, meanwhile rainfall was not. The predictive power of SARIMA models was enhanced by the inclusion of climatic variables as external regressors to forecast the year 2007. Temperature significantly affected the model for better dengue incidence forecasting (p-value = 0.03 for minimum temperature lag-5, p-value = 0.02 for average temperature lag-11 but not humidity. Minimum temperature at lag-5 weeks was the best climatic variable for predicting dengue outbreaks (RMSE = 0.72. Conclusion Temperature improves dengue outbreaks forecasts

  9. Using remote sensing and modeling techniques to investigate the annual parasite incidence of malaria in Loreto, Peru

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mousam, Aneela; Maggioni, Viviana; Delamater, Paul L.; Quispe, Antonio M.

    2017-10-01

    Between 2001 and 2010 significant progress was made towards reducing the number of malaria cases in Peru; however, the country saw an increase between 2011 and 2015. This work attempts to uncover the associations among various climatic and environmental variables and the annual malaria parasite incidence in the Peruvian region of Loreto. A Multilevel Mixed-effects Poisson Regression model is employed, focusing on the 2009-2013 period, when trends in malaria incidence shifted from decreasing to increasing. The results indicate that variations in elevation (β = 0.78; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.75-0.81), soil moisture (β = 0.0021; 95% CI, 0.0019-0.0022), rainfall (β = 0.59; 95% CI, 0.56-0.61), and normalized difference vegetation index (β = 2.13; 95% CI, 1.83-2.43) is associated with higher annual parasite incidence, whereas an increase in temperature (β = -0.0043; 95% CI, - 0.0044- 0.0041) is associated with a lower annual parasite incidence. The results from this study are particularly useful for healthcare workers in Loreto and have the potential of being integrated within malaria elimination plans.

  10. Forecasting the mortality rates using Lee-Carter model and Heligman-Pollard model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ibrahim, R. I.; Ngataman, N.; Abrisam, W. N. A. Wan Mohd

    2017-09-01

    Improvement in life expectancies has driven further declines in mortality. The sustained reduction in mortality rates and its systematic underestimation has been attracting the significant interest of researchers in recent years because of its potential impact on population size and structure, social security systems, and (from an actuarial perspective) the life insurance and pensions industry worldwide. Among all forecasting methods, the Lee-Carter model has been widely accepted by the actuarial community and Heligman-Pollard model has been widely used by researchers in modelling and forecasting future mortality. Therefore, this paper only focuses on Lee-Carter model and Heligman-Pollard model. The main objective of this paper is to investigate how accurately these two models will perform using Malaysian data. Since these models involves nonlinear equations that are explicitly difficult to solve, the Matrix Laboratory Version 8.0 (MATLAB 8.0) software will be used to estimate the parameters of the models. Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) procedure is applied to acquire the forecasted parameters for both models as the forecasted mortality rates are obtained by using all the values of forecasted parameters. To investigate the accuracy of the estimation, the forecasted results will be compared against actual data of mortality rates. The results indicate that both models provide better results for male population. However, for the elderly female population, Heligman-Pollard model seems to underestimate to the mortality rates while Lee-Carter model seems to overestimate to the mortality rates.

  11. Modelling Counterparty Credit Risk in Czech Interest Rate Swaps

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lenka Křivánková

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available According to the Basel Committee’s estimate, three quarters of counterparty credit risk losses during the financial crisis in 2008 originate from credit valuation adjustment’s losses and not from actual defaults. Therefore, from 2015, the Third Basel Accord (EU, 2013a and (EU, 2013b instructed banks to calculate the capital requirement for the risk of credit valuation adjustment (CVA. Banks are trying to model CVA to hold the prescribed standards and also reach the lowest possible impact on their profit. In this paper, we try to model CVA using methods that are in compliance with the prescribed standards and also achieve the smallest possible impact on the bank’s earnings. To do so, a data set of interest rate swaps from 2015 is used. The interest rate term structure is simulated using the Hull-White one-factor model and Monte Carlo methods. Then, the probability of default for each counterparty is constructed. A safe level of CVA is reached in spite of the calculated the CVA achieving a lower level than CVA previously used by the bank. This allows a reduction of capital requirements for banks.

  12. Polynomial Chaos Expansion Approach to Interest Rate Models

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    Luca Di Persio

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The Polynomial Chaos Expansion (PCE technique allows us to recover a finite second-order random variable exploiting suitable linear combinations of orthogonal polynomials which are functions of a given stochastic quantity ξ, hence acting as a kind of random basis. The PCE methodology has been developed as a mathematically rigorous Uncertainty Quantification (UQ method which aims at providing reliable numerical estimates for some uncertain physical quantities defining the dynamic of certain engineering models and their related simulations. In the present paper, we use the PCE approach in order to analyze some equity and interest rate models. In particular, we take into consideration those models which are based on, for example, the Geometric Brownian Motion, the Vasicek model, and the CIR model. We present theoretical as well as related concrete numerical approximation results considering, without loss of generality, the one-dimensional case. We also provide both an efficiency study and an accuracy study of our approach by comparing its outputs with the ones obtained adopting the Monte Carlo approach, both in its standard and its enhanced version.

  13. An interval-valued reliability model with bounded failure rates

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kozine, Igor; Krymsky, Victor

    2012-01-01

    The approach to deriving interval-valued reliability measures described in this paper is distinctive from other imprecise reliability models in that it overcomes the issue of having to impose an upper bound on time to failure. It rests on the presupposition that a constant interval-valued failure...... rate is known possibly along with other reliability measures, precise or imprecise. The Lagrange method is used to solve the constrained optimization problem to derive new reliability measures of interest. The obtained results call for an exponential-wise approximation of failure probability density...

  14. An Optimal Commitment Model of Exchange Rate Stabilization

    OpenAIRE

    Kyung-Soo Kim

    2006-01-01

    Recently East Asian countries that have amassed large US dollar reserves face a growing threat of big losses from a sudden decline in the dollar. This threat evokes an issue of the optimal commitment of exchange rate stabilization once raised by Isard (1995) who interpreted the cost of breaking the parity as the capital gain awarded to speculators, in the event the domestic currency is devalued. The only difference in this paper is revaluation. This paper models the central bank��s optima...

  15. Building a better methane generation model: Validating models with methane recovery rates from 35 Canadian landfills.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, Shirley; Sawyer, Jennifer; Bonam, Rathan; Valdivia, J E

    2009-07-01

    The German EPER, TNO, Belgium, LandGEM, and Scholl Canyon models for estimating methane production were compared to methane recovery rates for 35 Canadian landfills, assuming that 20% of emissions were not recovered. Two different fractions of degradable organic carbon (DOC(f)) were applied in all models. Most models performed better when the DOC(f) was 0.5 compared to 0.77. The Belgium, Scholl Canyon, and LandGEM version 2.01 models produced the best results of the existing models with respective mean absolute errors compared to methane generation rates (recovery rates + 20%) of 91%, 71%, and 89% at 0.50 DOC(f) and 171%, 115%, and 81% at 0.77 DOC(f). The Scholl Canyon model typically overestimated methane recovery rates and the LandGEM version 2.01 model, which modifies the Scholl Canyon model by dividing waste by 10, consistently underestimated methane recovery rates; this comparison suggested that modifying the divisor for waste in the Scholl Canyon model between one and ten could improve its accuracy. At 0.50 DOC(f) and 0.77 DOC(f) the modified model had the lowest absolute mean error when divided by 1.5 yielding 63 +/- 45% and 2.3 yielding 57 +/- 47%, respectively. These modified models reduced error and variability substantially and both have a strong correlation of r = 0.92.

  16. Substitution Models of Water for Other Beverages, and the Incidence of Obesity and Weight Gain in the SUN Cohort

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ujué Fresán

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Obesity is a major epidemic for developed countries in the 21st century. The main cause of obesity is energy imbalance, of which contributing factors include a sedentary lifestyle, epigenetic factors and excessive caloric intake through food and beverages. A high consumption of caloric beverages, such as alcoholic or sweetened drinks, may particularly contribute to weight gain, and lower satiety has been associated with the intake of liquid instead of solid calories. Our objective was to evaluate the association between the substitution of a serving per day of water for another beverage (or group of them and the incidence of obesity and weight change in a Mediterranean cohort, using mathematical models. We followed 15,765 adults without obesity at baseline. The intake of 17 beverage items was assessed at baseline through a validated food-frequency questionnaire. The outcomes were average change in body weight in a four-year period and new-onset obesity and their association with the substitution of one serving per day of water for one of the other beverages. During the follow-up, 873 incident cases of obesity were identified. In substitution models, the consumption of water instead of beer or sugar-sweetened soda beverages was associated with a lower obesity incidence (the Odds Ratio (OR 0.80 (95% confidence interval (CI 0.68 to 0.94 and OR 0.85 (95% CI 0.75 to 0.97; respectively and, in the case of beer, it was also associated with a higher average weight loss (weight change difference = −328 g; (95% CI −566 to −89. Thus, this study found that replacing one sugar-sweetened soda beverage or beer with one serving of water per day at baseline was related to a lower incidence of obesity and to a higher weight loss over a four-year period time in the case of beer, based on mathematical models.

  17. WE-EF-BRA-10: Prophylactic Cranial Irradiation Reduces the Incidence of Brain Metastasis in a Mouse Model of Metastatic Breast Cancerr

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, D; Debeb, B; Larson, R; Diagaradjane, P; Woodward, W [MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, TX (United States)

    2015-06-15

    Purpose: Prophylactic cranial irradiation (PCI) is a clinical technique used to reduce the incidence of brain metastasis and improve overall survival in select patients with acute lymphoblastic leukemia and small-cell lung cancer. We examined whether PCI could benefit breast cancer patients at high risk of developing brain metastases. Methods: We utilized our mouse model in which 500k green fluorescent protein (GFP)-labeled breast cancer cells injected into the tail vein of SCID/Beige mice resulted in brain metastases in approximately two-thirds of untreated mice. To test the efficacy of PCI, one set of mice was irradiated five days after cell injection with a single fraction of 4-Gy (two 2-Gy opposing fields) whole-brain irradiation on the XRAD 225Cx small-animal irradiator. Four controls were included: a non-irradiated group, a group irradiated two days prior to cell injection, and two groups irradiated 3 or 6 weeks after cell injection. Mice were sacrificed four and eight weeks post-injection and were evaluated for the presence of brain metastases on a fluorescent stereomicroscope. Results: The incidence of brain metastasis in the non-irradiated group was 77% and 90% at four and eight weeks, respectively. The PCI group had a significantly lower incidence, 20% and 30%, whereas the other three control groups had incidence rates similar to the non-treated control (70% to 100%). Further, the number of metastases and the metastatic burden were also significantly lower in the PCI group compared to all other groups. Conclusion: The timing of irradiation to treat subclinical disease is critical, as a small dose of whole-brain irradiation given five days after cell injection abrogated tumor burden by greater than 90%, but had no effect when administered twenty-one days after cell injection. PCI is likely to benefit breast cancer patients at high risk of developing brain metastases and should be strongly considered in the clinic.

  18. Interest rate modeling post-crisis challenges and approaches

    CERN Document Server

    Grbac, Zorana

    2015-01-01

    Filling a gap in the literature caused by the recent financial crisis, this book provides a treatment of the techniques needed to model and evaluate interest rate derivatives according to the new paradigm for fixed income markets. Concerning this new development, there presently exist only research articles and two books, one of them an edited volume, both being written by researchers working mainly in practice. The aim of this book is to concentrate primarily on the methodological side, thereby providing an overview of the state-of-the-art and also clarifying the link between the new models and the classical literature. The book is intended to serve as a guide for graduate students and researchers as well as practitioners interested in the paradigm change for fixed income markets. A basic knowledge of fixed income markets and related stochastic methodology is assumed as a prerequisite.

  19. Multiple time scales in modeling the incidence of infections acquired in intensive care units

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martin Wolkewitz

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background When patients are admitted to an intensive care unit (ICU their risk of getting an infection will be highly depend on the length of stay at-risk in the ICU. In addition, risk of infection is likely to vary over calendar time as a result of fluctuations in the prevalence of the pathogen on the ward. Hence risk of infection is expected to depend on two time scales (time in ICU and calendar time as well as competing events (discharge or death and their spatial location. The purpose of this paper is to develop and apply appropriate statistical models for the risk of ICU-acquired infection accounting for multiple time scales, competing risks and the spatial clustering of the data. Methods A multi-center data base from a Spanish surveillance network was used to study the occurrence of an infection due to Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA. The analysis included 84,843 patient admissions between January 2006 and December 2011 from 81 ICUs. Stratified Cox models were used to study multiple time scales while accounting for spatial clustering of the data (patients within ICUs and for death or discharge as competing events for MRSA infection. Results Both time scales, time in ICU and calendar time, are highly associated with the MRSA hazard rate and cumulative risk. When using only one basic time scale, the interpretation and magnitude of several patient-individual risk factors differed. Risk factors concerning the severity o