WorldWideScience

Sample records for models differ greatly

  1. Regional Personality Differences in Great Britain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rentfrow, Peter J.; Jokela, Markus; Lamb, Michael E.

    2015-01-01

    Recent investigations indicate that personality traits are unevenly distributed geographically, with some traits being more prevalent in certain places than in others. The geographical distributions of personality traits are associated with a range of important political, economic, social, and health outcomes. The majority of research on this subject has focused on the geographical distributions and macro-level correlates of personality across nations or regions of the United States. The aim of the present investigation was to replicate and extend that past work by examining regional personality differences in Great Britain. Using a sample of nearly 400,000 British residents, we mapped the geographical distributions of the Big Five Personality traits across 380 Local Authority Districts and examined the associations with important political, economic, social, and health outcomes. The results revealed distinct geographical clusters, with neighboring regions displaying similar personality characteristics, and robust associations with the macro-level outcome variables. Overall, the patterns of results were similar to findings from past research. PMID:25803819

  2. Models-Based Practice: Great White Hope or White Elephant?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casey, Ashley

    2014-01-01

    Background: Many critical curriculum theorists in physical education have advocated a model- or models-based approach to teaching in the subject. This paper explores the literature base around models-based practice (MBP) and asks if this multi-models approach to curriculum planning has the potential to be the great white hope of pedagogical change…

  3. A carbon balance model for the great dismal swamp ecosystem

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rachel Sleeter

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Carbon storage potential has become an important consideration for land management and planning in the United States. The ability to assess ecosystem carbon balance can help land managers understand the benefits and tradeoffs between different management strategies. This paper demonstrates an application of the Land Use and Carbon Scenario Simulator (LUCAS model developed for local-scale land management at the Great Dismal Swamp National Wildlife Refuge. We estimate the net ecosystem carbon balance by considering past ecosystem disturbances resulting from storm damage, fire, and land management actions including hydrologic inundation, vegetation clearing, and replanting. Results We modeled the annual ecosystem carbon stock and flow rates for the 30-year historic time period of 1985–2015, using age-structured forest growth curves and known data for disturbance events and management activities. The 30-year total net ecosystem production was estimated to be a net sink of 0.97 Tg C. When a hurricane and six historic fire events were considered in the simulation, the Great Dismal Swamp became a net source of 0.89 Tg C. The cumulative above and below-ground carbon loss estimated from the South One and Lateral West fire events totaled 1.70 Tg C, while management activities removed an additional 0.01 Tg C. The carbon loss in below-ground biomass alone totaled 1.38 Tg C, with the balance (0.31 Tg C coming from above-ground biomass and detritus. Conclusions Natural disturbances substantially impact net ecosystem carbon balance in the Great Dismal Swamp. Through alternative management actions such as re-wetting, below-ground biomass loss may have been avoided, resulting in the added carbon storage capacity of 1.38 Tg. Based on two model assumptions used to simulate the peat system, (a burn scar totaling 70 cm in depth, and the soil carbon accumulation rate of 0.36 t C/ha−1/year−1 for Atlantic white cedar, the total

  4. This Time It's Different? Youth Labour Markets During 'The Great Recession'

    OpenAIRE

    O'Higgins, Niall

    2012-01-01

    This paper looks at the effects of the 'Great Recession' on young people's labour market experiences in the European Union. The paper documents some of the key characteristics of young people's labour market experiences during the current recession and then seeks to provide some explanations of these applying both cross-section and time series rolling regression models in order, in particular, to better understand the role of labour market institutions as a determining factor of differing exp...

  5. Model-independent differences

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Könemann, Patrick

    2009-01-01

    Computing differences (diffs) and merging different versions is well-known for text files, but for models it is a very young field - especially patches for models are still matter of research. Text-based and model-based diffs have different starting points because the semantics of their structure...... is fundamentally different. This paper reports on our ongoing work on model-independent diffs, i.e. a diff that does not directly refer to the models it was created from. Based on that, we present an idea of how the diff could be generalized, e.g. many atomic diffs are merged to a new, generalized diff. One use...

  6. Africa's Great Green Wall Initiative: a model for restoration success

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berrahmouni, Nora; Sacande, Moctar

    2014-05-01

    The Great Green Wall for the Sahara and the Sahel Initiative was launched to address the increasing challenges of land degradation, desertification and drought, climate change, food insecurity and poverty in more than 20 countries. Restoration of agro-sylvo-pastoral landscapes and degraded lands is one of the priority interventions initiated, enabling the springing up of green nests of life. When complete, the Great Green Wall of Africa will reverse the seemingly unstoppable desertification and address the development of its drylands' inhabitant rural communities. Today's planting of modest seedlings will grow into vast mosaics of forest and agroforestry landscapes and grasslands, which will provide essential ecosystem goods and services, restore lost livelihoods and create new wealth. The ambition of reforestation efforts within this initiative - the like of which the world has never seen before - sounds like an impossible dream. However, learning from past mistakes and capitalising on current advancement in science and technology, it is a reality that is taking root. Following a successful restoration model that RBG Kew experts have devised, we are helping to mobilise, train and support communities in four border regions in Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger. In collaboration with FAO, the Millennium Seed Bank Partnership is using its unique expertise to ensure that seeds of environmentally well-adapted and economically useful local species are collected and planted in communal gardens and village agroforestry systems managed by the communities themselves. In our first year, an estimated total of 162,000 seedlings and 61 kg of seeds from 40 useful native species, including grasses for livestock, have been planted to cover 237 ha of farmer-managed land in 19 villages. The keen interest it has created has indicated that these figures will rise five-fold in the second year. These green bricks are the foundations of the living wall that will eventually reach across the

  7. Modeling species invasions in Ecopath with Ecosim: an evaluation using Laurentian Great Lakes models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Langseth, Brian J.; Rogers, Mark; Zhang, Hongyan

    2012-01-01

    Invasive species affect the structure and processes of ecosystems they invade. Invasive species have been particularly relevant to the Laurentian Great Lakes, where they have played a part in both historical and recent changes to Great Lakes food webs and the fisheries supported therein. There is increased interest in understanding the effects of ecosystem changes on fisheries within the Great Lakes, and ecosystem models provide an essential tool from which this understanding can take place. A commonly used model for exploring fisheries management questions within an ecosystem context is the Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE) modeling software. Incorporating invasive species into EwE models is a challenging process, and descriptions and comparisons of methods for modeling species invasions are lacking. We compared four methods for incorporating invasive species into EwE models for both Lake Huron and Lake Michigan based on the ability of each to reproduce patterns in observed data time series. The methods differed in whether invasive species biomass was forced in the model, the initial level of invasive species biomass at the beginning of time dynamic simulations, and the approach to cause invasive species biomass to increase at the time of invasion. The overall process of species invasion could be reproduced by all methods, but fits to observed time series varied among the methods and models considered. We recommend forcing invasive species biomass when model objectives are to understand ecosystem impacts in the past and when time series of invasive species biomass are available. Among methods where invasive species time series were not forced, mediating the strength of predator–prey interactions performed best for the Lake Huron model, but worse for the Lake Michigan model. Starting invasive species biomass at high values and then artificially removing biomass until the time of invasion performed well for both models, but was more complex than starting invasive species

  8. Modeling prosody: Different approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carmichael, Lesley M.

    2002-11-01

    Prosody pervades all aspects of a speech signal, both in terms of raw acoustic outcomes and linguistically meaningful units, from the phoneme to the discourse unit. It is carried in the suprasegmental features of fundamental frequency, loudness, and duration. Several models have been developed to account for the way prosody organizes speech, and they vary widely in terms of their theoretical assumptions, organizational primitives, actual procedures of application to speech, and intended use (e.g., to generate speech from text vs. to model the prosodic phonology of a language). In many cases, these models overtly contradict one another with regard to their fundamental premises or their identification of the perceptible objects of linguistic prosody. These competing models are directly compared. Each model is applied to the same speech samples. This parallel analysis allows for a critical inspection of each model and its efficacy in assessing the suprasegmental behavior of the speech. The analyses illustrate how different approaches are better equipped to account for different aspects of prosody. Viewing the models and their successes from an objective perspective allows for creative possibilities in terms of combining strengths from models which might otherwise be considered fundamentally incompatible.

  9. Genetic Differences Between Great Apes and Humans: Implications for Human Evolution

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Varki, Ajit (University of California, San Diego)

    2004-03-17

    When considering protein sequences, humans are 99-100% identical to chimpanzees and bonobos, our closest evolutionary relatives. The evolution of humans (and the unique features of our species) from a common ancestor with these great apes involved many steps, influenced by interactions amongst factors of genetic, developmental, ecological, microbial, climatic, behavioral, cultural and social origin. The genetic factors can be approached by direct comparisons of human and great ape genomes, genes and gene products, and by elucidating biochemical and biological consequences of the differences. We have discovered multiple genetic and biochemical differences between humans and great apes, particularly in relationship to a family of cell surface molecules called sialic acids. These differences have implications for the human condition, ranging from susceptibility or resistance to microbial pathogens; effects on endogenous receptors in the immune system; potential effects on placental signaling; the expression of oncofetal antigens in cancers; consequences of dietary intake of animal foods; and the development of the mammalian brain. This talk will provide an overview of these and other genetic differences between humans and great apes, with attention to differences potentially relevant to the evolution of humans.

  10. Individual differences in the use of social information in foraging by captive great tits

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marchetti, C.M.; Drent, P.J.

    2000-01-01

    We investigated individual differences in copying behaviour of captive great tits, Parus major, by analysing their response to a tutor indicating a new feeding site. We used two groups, each di seven male birds, labelled 'fast' and 'slow' explorers based on previous studies in which consistent

  11. Tissue differences in fragile X mosaics: Mosaicism in blood cells may differ greatly from skin

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dobkin, C.S.; Nolin, S.L.; Cohen, I. [NYS Institute for Basic Research in Developmental Disabilities, Staten Island, NY (United States)] [and others

    1996-08-09

    The fragile X mutation is diagnosed from the structure of the FMR1 gene in blood cell DNA. An estimated 12 to 41% of affected males are mosaics who carry both a {open_quotes}full mutation{close_quotes} allele from which there is no gene expression and a {open_quotes}premutation{close_quotes} allele which has normal gene expression. We compared the DNA in blood cells and skin fibroblasts from four mosaic fragile X males to see if there was a difference in the relative amounts of premutation and full mutation alleles within the tissues of these individuals. Two of these males showed striking differences in the ratio of premutation to full mutation in different tissues while the other two showed only slight differences. These observations conform with the widely accepted hypothesis that the fragile X CGG repeat is unstable in somatic tissue during early embryogenesis. Accordingly, the mosaicism in brain and skin, which are both ectodermal in origin, may be similar to each other but different from blood which is not ectodermal in origin. Thus, the ratio of full mutation to premutation allele in skin fibroblasts might be a better indicator of psychological impairment than the ratio in blood cells. 24 refs., 4 figs., 1 tab.

  12. Genetic Correlates of Individual Differences in Sleep Behavior of Free-Living Great Tits (Parus major

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erica F. Stuber

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Within populations, free-living birds display considerable variation in observable sleep behaviors, reflecting dynamic interactions between individuals and their environment. Genes are expected to contribute to repeatable between-individual differences in sleep behaviors, which may be associated with individual fitness. We identified and genotyped polymorphisms in nine candidate genes for sleep, and measured five repeatable sleep behaviors in free-living great tits (Parus major, partly replicating a previous study in blue tits (Cyanistes caeruleus. Microsatellites in the CLOCK and NPAS2 clock genes exhibited an association with sleep duration relative to night length, and morning latency to exit the nest box, respectively. Furthermore, microsatellites in the NPSR1 and PCSK2 genes associated with relative sleep duration and proportion of time spent awake at night, respectively. Given the detection rate of associations in the same models run with random markers instead of candidate genes, we expected two associations to arise by chance. The detection of four associations between candidate genes and sleep, however, suggests that clock genes, a clock-related gene, or a gene involved in the melanocortin system, could play key roles in maintaining phenotypic variation in sleep behavior in avian populations. Knowledge of the genetic architecture underlying sleep behavior in the wild is important because it will enable ecologists to assess the evolution of sleep in response to selection.

  13. Melanin- and carotenoid-dependent signals of great tits ( Parus major) relate differently to metal pollution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dauwe, Tom; Eens, Marcel

    2008-10-01

    Due to their high phenotypic plasticity, the expression of secondary sexual characteristics is particularly sensitive to stress. Here, we investigated the expression of two conspicuous visual signals in great tits ( Parus major) in a metal pollution gradient. In three study sites with marked differences in metal contamination (mainly lead, cadmium, copper and zinc), we compared melanin and carotenoid colouration of great tits. While carotenoid colouration (yellow breast) was negatively related to metal pollution, the size of a melanin trait (breast stripe) was larger in the most polluted sites. Environmental pollutants not only affect the expression of conspicuous signals but may even enhance, directly or indirectly, a signal of male quality such as breast stripe. Our results also support the multiple messages hypothesis predicting that different signals highlight different aspects of geno- and phenotypic condition of the bearer.

  14. Species distribution models for crop pollination: a modelling framework applied to Great Britain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Polce, Chiara; Termansen, Mette; Aguirre-Gutiérrez, Jesus; Boatman, Nigel D; Budge, Giles E; Crowe, Andrew; Garratt, Michael P; Pietravalle, Stéphane; Potts, Simon G; Ramirez, Jorge A; Somerwill, Kate E; Biesmeijer, Jacobus C

    2013-01-01

    Insect pollination benefits over three quarters of the world's major crops. There is growing concern that observed declines in pollinators may impact on production and revenues from animal pollinated crops. Knowing the distribution of pollinators is therefore crucial for estimating their availability to pollinate crops; however, in general, we have an incomplete knowledge of where these pollinators occur. We propose a method to predict geographical patterns of pollination service to crops, novel in two elements: the use of pollinator records rather than expert knowledge to predict pollinator occurrence, and the inclusion of the managed pollinator supply. We integrated a maximum entropy species distribution model (SDM) with an existing pollination service model (PSM) to derive the availability of pollinators for crop pollination. We used nation-wide records of wild and managed pollinators (honey bees) as well as agricultural data from Great Britain. We first calibrated the SDM on a representative sample of bee and hoverfly crop pollinator species, evaluating the effects of different settings on model performance and on its capacity to identify the most important predictors. The importance of the different predictors was better resolved by SDM derived from simpler functions, with consistent results for bees and hoverflies. We then used the species distributions from the calibrated model to predict pollination service of wild and managed pollinators, using field beans as a test case. The PSM allowed us to spatially characterize the contribution of wild and managed pollinators and also identify areas potentially vulnerable to low pollination service provision, which can help direct local scale interventions. This approach can be extended to investigate geographical mismatches between crop pollination demand and the availability of pollinators, resulting from environmental change or policy scenarios.

  15. Human and great ape red blood cells differ in plasmalogen levels and composition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ely John J

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Plasmalogens are ether phospholipids required for normal mammalian developmental, physiological, and cognitive functions. They have been proposed to act as membrane antioxidants and reservoirs of polyunsaturated fatty acids as well as influence intracellular signaling and membrane dynamics. Plasmalogens are particularly enriched in cells and tissues of the human nervous, immune, and cardiovascular systems. Humans with severely reduced plasmalogen levels have reduced life spans, abnormal neurological development, skeletal dysplasia, impaired respiration, and cataracts. Plasmalogen deficiency is also found in the brain tissue of individuals with Alzheimer disease. Results In a human and great ape cohort, we measured the red blood cell (RBC levels of the most abundant types of plasmalogens. Total RBC plasmalogen levels were lower in humans than bonobos, chimpanzees, and gorillas, but higher than orangutans. There were especially pronounced cross-species differences in the levels of plasmalogens with a C16:0 moiety at the sn-1 position. Humans on Western or vegan diets had comparable total RBC plasmalogen levels, but the latter group showed moderately higher levels of plasmalogens with a C18:1 moiety at the sn-1 position. We did not find robust sex-specific differences in human or chimpanzee RBC plasmalogen levels or composition. Furthermore, human and great ape skin fibroblasts showed only modest differences in peroxisomal plasmalogen biosynthetic activity. Human and chimpanzee microarray data indicated that genes involved in plasmalogen biosynthesis show cross-species differential expression in multiple tissues. Conclusion We propose that the observed differences in human and great ape RBC plasmalogens are primarily caused by their rates of biosynthesis and/or turnover. Gene expression data raise the possibility that other human and great ape cells and tissues differ in plasmalogen levels. Based on the phenotypes of humans and

  16. Human and great ape red blood cells differ in plasmalogen levels and composition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moser, Ann B; Steinberg, Steven J; Watkins, Paul A; Moser, Hugo W; Ramaswamy, Krishna; Siegmund, Kimberly D; Lee, D Rick; Ely, John J; Ryder, Oliver A; Hacia, Joseph G

    2011-06-17

    Plasmalogens are ether phospholipids required for normal mammalian developmental, physiological, and cognitive functions. They have been proposed to act as membrane antioxidants and reservoirs of polyunsaturated fatty acids as well as influence intracellular signaling and membrane dynamics. Plasmalogens are particularly enriched in cells and tissues of the human nervous, immune, and cardiovascular systems. Humans with severely reduced plasmalogen levels have reduced life spans, abnormal neurological development, skeletal dysplasia, impaired respiration, and cataracts. Plasmalogen deficiency is also found in the brain tissue of individuals with Alzheimer disease. In a human and great ape cohort, we measured the red blood cell (RBC) levels of the most abundant types of plasmalogens. Total RBC plasmalogen levels were lower in humans than bonobos, chimpanzees, and gorillas, but higher than orangutans. There were especially pronounced cross-species differences in the levels of plasmalogens with a C16:0 moiety at the sn-1 position. Humans on Western or vegan diets had comparable total RBC plasmalogen levels, but the latter group showed moderately higher levels of plasmalogens with a C18:1 moiety at the sn-1 position. We did not find robust sex-specific differences in human or chimpanzee RBC plasmalogen levels or composition. Furthermore, human and great ape skin fibroblasts showed only modest differences in peroxisomal plasmalogen biosynthetic activity. Human and chimpanzee microarray data indicated that genes involved in plasmalogen biosynthesis show cross-species differential expression in multiple tissues. We propose that the observed differences in human and great ape RBC plasmalogens are primarily caused by their rates of biosynthesis and/or turnover. Gene expression data raise the possibility that other human and great ape cells and tissues differ in plasmalogen levels. Based on the phenotypes of humans and rodents with plasmalogen disorders, we propose that cross

  17. Genetic Differences Between Humans and Great Apes -- Implications for the Evolution of Humans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Varki, Ajit

    2004-06-01

    At the level of individual protein sequences, humans are 97-100% identical to the great apes, our closest evolutionary relatives. The evolution of humans (and of human intelligence) from a common ancestor with the chimpanzee and bonobo involved many steps, influenced by interactions amongst factors of genetic, developmental, ecological, microbial, climatic, behavioral, cultural and social origin. The genetic factors can be approached by direct comparisons of human and great ape genomes, genes and gene products, and by elucidating biochemical and biological consequences of any differences found. We have discovered multiple genetic and biochemical differences between humans and great apes, particularly with respect to a family of cell surface molecules called sialic acids, as well as in the metabolism of thyroid hormones. The hormone differences have potential consequences for human brain development. The differences in sialic acid biology have multiple implications for the human condition, ranging from susceptibility or resistance to microbial pathogens, effects on endogenous receptors in the immune system, and potential effects on placental signaling, expression of oncofetal antigens in cancers, consequences of dietary intake of animal foods, and development of the mammalian brain.

  18. Estimation of the ancestral effective population sizes of African great apes under different selection regimes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schrago, Carlos G

    2014-08-01

    Reliable estimates of ancestral effective population sizes are necessary to unveil the population-level phenomena that shaped the phylogeny and molecular evolution of the African great apes. Although several methods have previously been applied to infer ancestral effective population sizes, an analysis of the influence of the selective regime on the estimates of ancestral demography has not been thoroughly conducted. In this study, three independent data sets under different selective regimes were used were composed to tackle this issue. The results showed that selection had a significant impact on the estimates of ancestral effective population sizes of the African great apes. The inference of the ancestral demography of African great apes was affected by the selection regime. The effects, however, were not homogeneous along the ancestral populations of great apes. The effective population size of the ancestor of humans and chimpanzees was more impacted by the selection regime when compared to the same parameter in the ancestor of humans, chimpanzees and gorillas. Because the selection regime influenced the estimates of ancestral effective population size, it is reasonable to assume that a portion of the discrepancy found in previous studies that inferred the ancestral effective population size may be attributable to the differential action of selection on the genes sampled.

  19. Compilation of watershed models for tributaries to the Great Lakes, United States, as of 2010, and identification of watersheds for future modeling for the Great Lakes Restoration Initiative

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coon, William F.; Murphy, Elizabeth A.; Soong, David T.; Sharpe, Jennifer B.

    2011-01-01

    As part of the Great Lakes Restoration Initiative (GLRI) during 2009–10, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) compiled a list of existing watershed models that had been created for tributaries within the United States that drain to the Great Lakes. Established Federal programs that are overseen by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) are responsible for most of the existing watershed models for specific tributaries. The NOAA Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory (GLERL) uses the Large Basin Runoff Model to provide data for the management of water levels in the Great Lakes by estimating United States and Canadian inflows to the Great Lakes from 121 large watersheds. GLERL also simulates streamflows in 34 U.S. watersheds by a grid-based model, the Distributed Large Basin Runoff Model. The NOAA National Weather Service uses the Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting model to predict flows at river forecast sites. The USACE created or funded the creation of models for at least 30 tributaries to the Great Lakes to better understand sediment erosion, transport, and aggradation processes that affect Federal navigation channels and harbors. Many of the USACE hydrologic models have been coupled with hydrodynamic and sediment-transport models that simulate the processes in the stream and harbor near the mouth of the modeled tributary. Some models either have been applied or have the capability of being applied across the entire Great Lakes Basin; they are (1) the SPAtially Referenced Regressions On Watershed attributes (SPARROW) model, which was developed by the USGS; (2) the High Impact Targeting (HIT) and Digital Watershed models, which were developed by the Institute of Water Research at Michigan State University; (3) the Long-Term Hydrologic Impact Assessment (L–THIA) model, which was developed by researchers at Purdue University; and (4) the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model, which was

  20. Modeling detection probability to improve marsh bird surveys in southern Canada and the Great Lakes states

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Douglas C. Tozer

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Marsh birds are notoriously elusive, with variation in detection probability across species, regions, seasons, and different times of day and weather. Therefore, it is important to develop regional field survey protocols that maximize detections, but that also produce data for estimating and analytically adjusting for remaining differences in detections. We aimed to improve regional field survey protocols by estimating detection probability of eight elusive marsh bird species throughout two regions that have ongoing marsh bird monitoring programs: the southern Canadian Prairies (Prairie region and the southern portion of the Great Lakes basin and parts of southern Québec (Great Lakes-St. Lawrence region. We accomplished our goal using generalized binomial N-mixture models and data from ~22,300 marsh bird surveys conducted between 2008 and 2014 by Bird Studies Canada's Prairie, Great Lakes, and Québec Marsh Monitoring Programs. Across all species, on average, detection probability was highest in the Great Lakes-St. Lawrence region from the beginning of May until mid-June, and then fell throughout the remainder of the season until the end of June; was lowest in the Prairie region in mid-May and then increased throughout the remainder of the season until the end of June; was highest during darkness compared with light; and did not vary significantly according to temperature (range: 0-30°C, cloud cover (0%-100%, or wind (0-20 kph, or during morning versus evening. We used our results to formulate improved marsh bird survey protocols for each region. Our analysis and recommendations are useful and contribute to conservation of wetland birds at various scales from local single-species studies to the continental North American Marsh Bird Monitoring Program.

  1. Ambient temperature effects on photo induced gonadal cycles and hormonal secretion patterns in Great Tits from three different breeding latitudes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silverin, Bengt; Wingfield, John; Stokkan, Karl-Arne; Massa, Renato; Järvinen, Antero; Andersson, Nils-Ake; Lambrechts, Marcel; Sorace, Alberto; Blomqvist, Donald

    2008-06-01

    The present study determines how populations of Great Tits (Parus major) breeding in southern, mid and northern European latitudes have adjusted their reproductive endocrinology to differences in the ambient temperature during the gonadal cycle. A study based on long-term breeding data, using the Colwell predictability model, showed that the start of the breeding season has a high predictability ( approximately 0.8-0.9) at all latitudes, and that the environmental information factor (I(e)) progressively decreased from mid Italy (I(e)>4) to northern Finland (I(e)photoperiodic initial predictive information (day length), becomes progressively more important in maintaining the predictability of the breeding season with decreasing latitude. This hypothesis was verified by exposing photosensitive Great Tits from northern Norway, southern Sweden and northern Italy to sub-maximal photo-stimulatory day lengths (13L:11D) under two different ambient temperature regimes (+4 degrees C and +20 degrees C). Changes in testicular size, plasma levels of LH and testosterone were measured. The main results were: (1) Initial testicular growth rate, as well as LH secretion, was affected by temperature in the Italian, but not in birds from the two Scandinavian populations. (2) Maximum testicular size, maximum LH and testosterone levels were maintained for a progressively shorter period of time with increasing latitude, regardless of whether the birds were kept on a low or a high ambient temperature. (3) In birds from all latitudes, the development of photorefractoriness, as indicated by testicular regression and a decrease in plasma levels of LH and testosterone, started much earlier (with the exception for LH Great Tits from northern Scandinavia) when kept on +20 degrees C than when kept on +4 degrees C. The prolonging effects of a low temperature was more pronounced in Mediterranean birds, than in birds from Scandinavia, and more pronounced in Great Tits from southern Scandinavia than

  2. Developing Flexible, Integrated Hydrologic Modeling Systems for Multiscale Analysis in the Midwest and Great Lakes Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamlet, A. F.; Chiu, C. M.; Sharma, A.; Byun, K.; Hanson, Z.

    2016-12-01

    Physically based hydrologic modeling of surface and groundwater resources that can be flexibly and efficiently applied to support water resources policy/planning/management decisions at a wide range of spatial and temporal scales are greatly needed in the Midwest, where stakeholder access to such tools is currently a fundamental barrier to basic climate change assessment and adaptation efforts, and also the co-production of useful products to support detailed decision making. Based on earlier pilot studies in the Pacific Northwest Region, we are currently assembling a suite of end-to-end tools and resources to support various kinds of water resources planning and management applications across the region. One of the key aspects of these integrated tools is that the user community can access gridded products at any point along the end-to-end chain of models, looking backwards in time about 100 years (1915-2015), and forwards in time about 85 years using CMIP5 climate model projections. The integrated model is composed of historical and projected future meteorological data based on station observations and statistical and dynamically downscaled climate model output respectively. These gridded meteorological data sets serve as forcing data for the macro-scale VIC hydrologic model implemented over the Midwest at 1/16 degree resolution. High-resolution climate model (4km WRF) output provides inputs for the analyses of urban impacts, hydrologic extremes, agricultural impacts, and impacts to the Great Lakes. Groundwater recharge estimated by the surface water model provides input data for fine-scale and macro-scale groundwater models needed for specific applications. To highlight the multi-scale use of the integrated models in support of co-production of scientific information for decision making, we briefly describe three current case studies addressing different spatial scales of analysis: 1) Effects of climate change on the water balance of the Great Lakes, 2) Future

  3. Gender and Personality Differences in Response to Social Stressors in Great Tits (Parus major.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Esther van der Meer

    Full Text Available In response to stressors, animals can increase the activity of the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenocortical axis, resulting in elevated glucocorticoid concentrations. An increase in glucocorticoids results in an increase in heterophils and a decrease in lymphocytes, which ratio (H/L-ratio is an indicator of stress in birds. The physiological response to a stressor can depend on individual characteristics, like dominance rank, sex and personality. Although the isolated effects of these characteristics on the response to a stressor have been well studied, little is known about the response in relation to a combination of these characteristics. In this study we investigate the relationship between social stress, dominance rank, sex and exploratory behaviour as a validated operational measure of personality in great tits (Parus major. Great tits show consistent individual differences in behaviour and physiology in response to stressors, and exploratory behaviour can be classified as fast or slow exploring. We group-housed four birds, two fast and two slow explorers, of the same sex that were previously singly housed, in an aviary and compared the H/L-ratio, lymphocyte and heterophil count before and after group housing. After experiencing the social context all birds increased their H/L-ratio and heterophil count. Females showed a stronger increase in H/L-ratio and heterophil count than males, which seemed to be related to a higher number of agonistic interactions compared to males. Dominance rank and exploration type did not affect the H/L-ratio or heterophil count. Contrary to our expectations, all birds increased their lymphocyte count. However, this increase was slower for fast than for slow explorers. Our study suggests that personality and sex related differences, but not dominance rank, are associated with changes in an individual's physiological response due to a social context.

  4. Great ape origins of personality maturation and sex differences: a study of orangutans and chimpanzees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weiss, Alexander; King, James E

    2015-04-01

    Human personality development evinces increased emotional stability, prosocial tendencies, and responsibility. One hypothesis offered to explain this pattern is Social-Investment Theory, which posits that culturally defined social roles, including marriage and employment, are responsible for the increased maturity. Alternatively, Five-Factor Theory emphasizes the role of biological factors, such as those governing physical development, which may predate the emergence of humans. Five-Factor Theory, unlike Social-Investment Theory, predicts that all or some of the human personality developmental trends should be present in great apes, our closest evolutionary relatives. To test this prediction and to better understand the evolutionary origins of sex differences, we examined age and sex differences in the chimpanzee and orangutan personality domains Extraversion, Dominance, Neuroticism, and Agreeableness. We also examined the Activity and Gregariousness facets of Extraversion and the orangutan Intellect domain. Extraversion and Neuroticism declined across age groups in both species, in common with humans. A significant interaction indicated that Agreeableness declined in orangutans but increased in chimpanzees, as it does in humans, though this may reflect differences in how Agreeableness was defined in each species. Significant interactions indicated that male chimpanzees, unlike male orangutans, displayed higher Neuroticism scores than females and maintained higher levels of Activity and Dominance into old age than female chimpanzees, male orangutans, and female orangutans. Personality-age correlations were comparable across orangutans and chimpanzees and were similar to those reported in human studies. Sex differences were stronger in chimpanzees than in humans or orangutans. These findings support Five-Factor Theory, suggest the role of gene-culture coevolution in shaping personality development, and suggest that sex differences evolved independently in different

  5. Differences in the early cognitive development of children and great apes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wobber, Victoria; Herrmann, Esther; Hare, Brian; Wrangham, Richard; Tomasello, Michael

    2014-04-01

    There is very little research comparing great ape and human cognition developmentally. In the current studies we compared a cross-sectional sample of 2- to 4-year-old human children (n=48) with a large sample of chimpanzees and bonobos in the same age range (n=42, hereafter: apes) on a broad array of cognitive tasks. We then followed a group of juvenile apes (n=44) longitudinally over 3 years to track their cognitive development in greater detail. In skills of physical cognition (space, causality, quantities), children and apes performed comparably at 2 years of age, but by 4 years of age children were more advanced (whereas apes stayed at their 2-year-old performance levels). In skills of social cognition (communication, social learning, theory of mind), children out-performed apes already at 2 years, and increased this difference even more by 4 years. Patterns of development differed more between children and apes in the social domain than the physical domain, with support for these patterns present in both the cross-sectional and longitudinal ape data sets. These results indicate key differences in the pattern and pace of cognitive development between humans and other apes, particularly in the early emergence of specific social cognitive capacities in humans. Copyright © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  6. Modelling psychological responses to the Great East Japan earthquake and nuclear incident.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goodwin, Robin; Takahashi, Masahito; Sun, Shaojing; Gaines, Stanley O

    2012-01-01

    The Great East Japan (Tōhoku/Kanto) earthquake of March 2011 was followed by a major tsunami and nuclear incident. Several previous studies have suggested a number of psychological responses to such disasters. However, few previous studies have modelled individual differences in the risk perceptions of major events, or the implications of these perceptions for relevant behaviours. We conducted a survey specifically examining responses to the Great Japan earthquake and nuclear incident, with data collected 11-13 weeks following these events. 844 young respondents completed a questionnaire in three regions of Japan; Miyagi (close to the earthquake and leaking nuclear plants), Tokyo/Chiba (approximately 220 km from the nuclear plants), and Western Japan (Yamaguchi and Nagasaki, some 1000 km from the plants). Results indicated significant regional differences in risk perception, with greater concern over earthquake risks in Tokyo than in Miyagi or Western Japan. Structural equation analyses showed that shared normative concerns about earthquake and nuclear risks, conservation values, lack of trust in governmental advice about the nuclear hazard, and poor personal control over the nuclear incident were positively correlated with perceived earthquake and nuclear risks. These risk perceptions further predicted specific outcomes (e.g. modifying homes, avoiding going outside, contemplating leaving Japan). The strength and significance of these pathways varied by region. Mental health and practical implications of these findings are discussed in the light of the continuing uncertainties in Japan following the March 2011 events.

  7. Modelling psychological responses to the Great East Japan earthquake and nuclear incident.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robin Goodwin

    Full Text Available The Great East Japan (Tōhoku/Kanto earthquake of March 2011 was followed by a major tsunami and nuclear incident. Several previous studies have suggested a number of psychological responses to such disasters. However, few previous studies have modelled individual differences in the risk perceptions of major events, or the implications of these perceptions for relevant behaviours. We conducted a survey specifically examining responses to the Great Japan earthquake and nuclear incident, with data collected 11-13 weeks following these events. 844 young respondents completed a questionnaire in three regions of Japan; Miyagi (close to the earthquake and leaking nuclear plants, Tokyo/Chiba (approximately 220 km from the nuclear plants, and Western Japan (Yamaguchi and Nagasaki, some 1000 km from the plants. Results indicated significant regional differences in risk perception, with greater concern over earthquake risks in Tokyo than in Miyagi or Western Japan. Structural equation analyses showed that shared normative concerns about earthquake and nuclear risks, conservation values, lack of trust in governmental advice about the nuclear hazard, and poor personal control over the nuclear incident were positively correlated with perceived earthquake and nuclear risks. These risk perceptions further predicted specific outcomes (e.g. modifying homes, avoiding going outside, contemplating leaving Japan. The strength and significance of these pathways varied by region. Mental health and practical implications of these findings are discussed in the light of the continuing uncertainties in Japan following the March 2011 events.

  8. Competition effects from cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum) differs among perennial grasses of the Great Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Competition from the exotic annual grass, cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum), threatens millions of hectares of native plant communities throughout the Great Basin. The Nature Conservancy has identified the Great Basin as the third most endangered ecosystem in the United States. Not only has increased fue...

  9. Consistent individual differences in the social phenotypes of wild great tits,Parus major.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aplin, L M; Firth, J A; Farine, D R; Voelkl, B; Crates, R A; Culina, A; Garroway, C J; Hinde, C A; Kidd, L R; Psorakis, I; Milligan, N D; Radersma, R; Verhelst, B L; Sheldon, B C

    2015-10-01

    Despite growing interest in animal social networks, surprisingly little is known about whether individuals are consistent in their social network characteristics. Networks are rarely repeatedly sampled; yet an assumption of individual consistency in social behaviour is often made when drawing conclusions about the consequences of social processes and structure. A characterization of such social phenotypes is therefore vital to understanding the significance of social network structure for individual fitness outcomes, and for understanding the evolution and ecology of individual variation in social behaviour more broadly. Here, we measured foraging associations over three winters in a large PIT-tagged population of great tits, and used a range of social network metrics to quantify individual variation in social behaviour. We then examined repeatability in social behaviour over both short (week to week) and long (year to year) timescales, and investigated variation in repeatability across age and sex classes. Social behaviours were significantly repeatable across all timescales, with the highest repeatability observed in group size choice and unweighted degree, a measure of gregariousness. By conducting randomizations to control for the spatial and temporal distribution of individuals, we further show that differences in social phenotypes were not solely explained by within-population variation in local densities, but also reflected fine-scale variation in social decision making. Our results provide rare evidence of stable social phenotypes in a wild population of animals. Such stable social phenotypes can be targets of selection and may have important fitness consequences, both for individuals and for their social-foraging associates.

  10. Effects of different disturbance types on butterflyfish communities of Australia's Great Barrier Reef

    Science.gov (United States)

    Emslie, M. J.; Pratchett, M. S.; Cheal, A. J.

    2011-06-01

    The effects of disturbances on coral reef fishes have been extensively documented but most studies have relied on opportunistic sampling following single events. Few studies have the spatial and temporal extent to directly compare the effects of multiple disturbances over a large geographic scale. Here, benthic communities and butterflyfishes on 47 reefs of the Great Barrier Reef were surveyed annually to examine their responses to physical disturbances (cyclones and storms) and/or biological disturbances (bleaching, outbreaks of crown-of-thorns starfish and white syndrome disease). The effects on benthic and butterflyfish communities varied among reefs depending on the structure and geographical setting of each community, on the size and type of disturbance, and on the disturbance history of that reef. There was considerable variability in the response of butterflyfishes to different disturbances: physical disturbances (occurring with or without biological disturbances) produced substantial declines in abundance, whilst biological disturbances occurring on their own did not. Butterflyfishes with the narrowest feeding preferences, such as obligate corallivores, were always the species most affected. The response of generalist feeders varied with the extent of damage. Wholesale changes to the butterflyfish community were only recorded where structural complexity of reefs was drastically reduced. The observed effects of disturbances on butterflyfishes coupled with predictions of increased frequency and intensity of disturbances sound a dire warning for the future of butterflyfish communities in particular and reef fish communities in general.

  11. Development of a GIS interface for WEPP Model application to Great Lakes forested watersheds

    Science.gov (United States)

    J. R. Frankenberger; S. Dun; D. C. Flanagan; J. Q. Wu; W. J. Elliot

    2011-01-01

    This presentation will highlight efforts on development of a new online WEPP GIS interface, targeted toward application in forested regions bordering the Great Lakes. The key components and algorithms of the online GIS system will be outlined. The general procedures used to provide input to the WEPP model and to display model output will be demonstrated.

  12. Tsunami Simulations in the Western Makran Using Hypothetical Heterogeneous Source Models from World's Great Earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rashidi, Amin; Shomali, Zaher Hossein; Keshavarz Farajkhah, Nasser

    2018-03-01

    The western segment of Makran subduction zone is characterized with almost no major seismicity and no large earthquake for several centuries. A possible episode for this behavior is that this segment is currently locked accumulating energy to generate possible great future earthquakes. Taking into account this assumption, a hypothetical rupture area is considered in the western Makran to set different tsunamigenic scenarios. Slip distribution models of four recent tsunamigenic earthquakes, i.e. 2015 Chile M w 8.3, 2011 Tohoku-Oki M w 9.0 (using two different scenarios) and 2006 Kuril Islands M w 8.3, are scaled into the rupture area in the western Makran zone. The numerical modeling is performed to evaluate near-field and far-field tsunami hazards. Heterogeneity in slip distribution results in higher tsunami amplitudes. However, its effect reduces from local tsunamis to regional and distant tsunamis. Among all considered scenarios for the western Makran, only a similar tsunamigenic earthquake to the 2011 Tohoku-Oki event can re-produce a significant far-field tsunami and is considered as the worst case scenario. The potential of a tsunamigenic source is dominated by the degree of slip heterogeneity and the location of greatest slip on the rupture area. For the scenarios with similar slip patterns, the mean slip controls their relative power. Our conclusions also indicate that along the entire Makran coasts, the southeastern coast of Iran is the most vulnerable area subjected to tsunami hazard.

  13. Representation of the Great Lakes in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Version 5

    Science.gov (United States)

    Briley, L.; Rood, R. B.

    2017-12-01

    The U.S. Great Lakes play a significant role in modifying regional temperatures and precipitation, and as the lakes change in response to a warming climate (i.e., warmer surface water temperatures, decreased ice cover, etc) lake-land-atmosphere dynamics are affected. Because the lakes modify regional weather and are a driver of regional climate change, understanding how they are represented in climate models is important to the reliability of model based information for the region. As part of the Great Lakes Integrated Sciences + Assessments (GLISA) Ensemble project, a major effort is underway to evaluate the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project version (CMIP) 5 global climate models for how well they physically represent the Great Lakes and lake-effects. The CMIP models were chosen because they are a primary source of information in many products developed for decision making (i.e., National Climate Assessment, downscaled future climate projections, etc.), yet there is very little description of how well they represent the lakes. This presentation will describe the results of our investigation of if and how the Great Lakes are represented in the CMIP5 models.

  14. A Bayesian source model for the 2004 great Sumatra-Andaman earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bletery, Quentin; Sladen, Anthony; Jiang, Junle; Simons, Mark

    2016-07-01

    The 2004 Mw 9.1-9.3 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake is one of the largest earthquakes of the modern instrumental era. Despite considerable efforts to analyze this event, the different available observations have proven difficult to reconcile in a single finite-fault slip model. In particular, the critical near-field geodetic records contain variable and significant postseismic signal (between 2 weeks' and 2 months' worth), while the satellite altimetry records of the associated tsunami are affected by various sources of uncertainties (e.g., source rupture velocity and mesoscale oceanic currents). In this study, we investigate the quasi-static slip distribution of the Sumatra-Andaman earthquake by carefully accounting for the different sources of uncertainties in the joint inversion of available geodetic and tsunami data. To this end, we use nondiagonal covariance matrices reflecting both observational and modeling uncertainties in a fully Bayesian inversion framework. Modeling errors can be particularly large for great earthquakes. Here we consider a layered spherical Earth for the static displacement field, nonhydrostatic equations for the tsunami, and a 3-D megathrust interface geometry to alleviate some of the potential epistemic uncertainties. The Bayesian framework then enables us to derive families of possible models compatible with the unevenly distributed and sometimes ambiguous measurements. We infer two regions of high fault slip at 3°N-4°N and 7°N-8°N with amplitudes that likely reach values as large as 40 m and possibly larger. These values are a factor of 2 larger than typically found in previous studies—potentially an outcome of commonly assumed forms of regularization. Finally, we find that fault rupture very likely involved shallow slip. Within the resolution provided by the existing data, we cannot rule out the possibility that fault rupture reached the trench.

  15. Evapotranspiration in winter wheat under different grazing and tillage practices in the southern Great Plains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Precipitation in the Southern Great Plains (SGP) is highly variable both spatially and temporally with recurring periods of severe drought. Winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) – summer fallow system with conventional tillage is the principal dryland cropping system in this region for both grazing an...

  16. What Great Principals Do Differently: Eighteen Things That Matter Most. Second Edition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whitaker, Todd

    2012-01-01

    Inspire yourself and others with the second edition of this best-selling book. With heartfelt advice, practical wisdom, and examples from the field, Todd Whitaker explains the qualities and practices that distinguish great principals. New features include: (1) Developing an accurate sense of self; (2) Understanding the dynamics of change; and (3)…

  17. A network model framework for prioritizing wetland conservation in the Great Plains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albanese, Gene; Haukos, David A.

    2017-01-01

    ContextPlaya wetlands are the primary habitat for numerous wetland-dependent species in the Southern Great Plains of North America. Plant and wildlife populations that inhabit these wetlands are reciprocally linked through the dispersal of individuals, propagules and ultimately genes among local populations.ObjectiveTo develop and implement a framework using network models for conceptualizing, representing and analyzing potential biological flows among 48,981 spatially discrete playa wetlands in the Southern Great Plains.MethodsWe examined changes in connectivity patterns and assessed the relative importance of wetlands to maintaining these patterns by targeting wetlands for removal based on network centrality metrics weighted by estimates of habitat quality and probability of inundation.ResultsWe identified several distinct, broad-scale sub networks and phase transitions among playa wetlands in the Southern Plains. In particular, for organisms that can disperse >2 km a dense and expansive wetland sub network emerges in the Southern High Plains. This network was characterized by localized, densely connected wetland clusters at link distances (h) >2 km but <5 km and was most sensitive to changes in wetland availability (p) and configuration when h = 4 km, and p = 0.2–0.4. It transitioned to a single, large connected wetland system at broader spatial scales even when the proportion of inundated wetland was relatively low (p = 0.2).ConclusionsOur findings suggest that redundancy in the potential for broad and fine-scale movements insulates this system from damage and facilitates system-wide connectivity among populations with different dispersal capacities.

  18. Great apes can defer exchange: a replication with different results suggesting future oriented behaviour

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mathias eOsvath

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available The topic of cognitive foresight in non-human animals has received considerable attention in the last decade. The main questions concern whether the animals can prepare for upcoming situations which are, to various degrees, contextually or sensorially detached from the situation in which the preparations are made. Studies on great apes have focused on tool-related tasks, e.g. the ability to select a tool which is functional only in the future. Dufour and Sterck (2008, however, investigated whether chimpanzees were also able to prepare for a future exchange with a human: an object exchanged for a food item. The study included extensive training on the exchangeable item, which is traditionally not compatible with methods for studying planning abilities, as associative learning cannot be precluded. Nevertheless, despite this training, the chimpanzees could not solve the deferred exchange task. Given that great apes can plan for tool use, these results are puzzling. In addition, claims that great ape foresight is highly limited has been based on this study (Suddendorf and Corballis, 2010. Here we partly replicated Dufour and Sterck’s study to discern whether temporally deferred and spatially displaced exchange tasks are beyond the capabilities of great apes. In addition to chimpanzees we tested orangutans. One condition followed the one used by Dufour and Sterck, in which the exchange items, functional only in the future, are placed at a location that freely allows for selections by the subjects. In order to test the possibility that the choice set-up could explain the negative results in Dufour and Sterck’s study, our second condition followed a method used in the planning study by Osvath and Osvath (2008, where the subjects make a forced one-item-choice from a tray. We found that it is within the capabilities of chimpanzees and orangutans to perform deferred exchange in both conditions.

  19. Modeling environmental risk and land management trade-offs in the Great Barrier Reef catchment

    OpenAIRE

    Mallawaarachchi, Thilak; Mazur, Kasia; Lawson, Kenton

    2007-01-01

    We develop a catchment scale modeling framework to identify cost-effective strategies for joint onsite abatement and offsite mitigation of land-based pollution from agricultural activities that pose a risk to water quality in the Great Barrier Reef (GBR). An illustrative example of the Barron catchment in north Queensland is used to demonstrate an approach to specify social planner's problem for non-point source pollution management as a cost minimisation model to meet a specified reduction i...

  20. Combining occurrence and abundance distribution models for the conservation of the Great Bustard

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chunrong Mi

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Species distribution models (SDMs have become important and essential tools in conservation and management. However, SDMs built with count data, referred to as species abundance models (SAMs, are still less commonly used to date, but increasingly receiving attention. Species occurrence and abundance do not frequently display similar patterns, and often they are not even well correlated. Therefore, only using information based on SDMs or SAMs leads to an insufficient or misleading conservation efforts. How to combine information from SDMs and SAMs and how to apply the combined information to achieve unified conservation remains a challenge. In this study, we introduce and propose a priority protection index (PI. The PI combines the prediction results of the occurrence and abundance models. As a case study, we used the best-available presence and count records for an endangered farmland species, the Great Bustard (Otis tarda dybowskii, in Bohai Bay, China. We then applied the Random Forest algorithm (Salford Systems Ltd. Implementation with eleven predictor variables to forecast the spatial occurrence as well as the abundance distribution. The results show that the occurrence model had a decent performance (ROC: 0.77 and the abundance model had a RMSE of 26.54. It is noteworthy that environmental variables influenced bustard occurrence and abundance differently. The area of farmland, and the distance to residential areas were the top important variables influencing bustard occurrence. While the distance to national roads and to expressways were the most important influencing abundance. In addition, the occurrence and abundance models displayed different spatial distribution patterns. The regions with a high index of occurrence were concentrated in the south-central part of the study area; and the abundance distribution showed high populations occurrence in the central and northwestern parts of the study area. However, combining occurrence and

  1. The use of process models to inform and improve statistical models of nitrate occurrence, Great Miami River Basin, southwestern Ohio

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walter, Donald A.; Starn, J. Jeffrey

    2013-01-01

    in estimated variables for circular buffers and contributing recharge areas of existing public-supply and network wells in the Great Miami River Basin. Large differences in areaweighted mean environmental variables are observed at the basin scale, determined by using the network of uniformly spaced hypothetical wells; the differences have a spatial pattern that generally is similar to spatial patterns in the underlying STATSGO data. Generally, the largest differences were observed for area-weighted nitrogen-application rate from county and national land-use data; the basin-scale differences ranged from -1,600 (indicating a larger value from within the volume-equivalent contributing recharge area) to 1,900 kilograms per year (kg/yr); the range in the underlying spatial data was from 0 to 2,200 kg/yr. Silt content, alfisol content, and nitrogen-application rate are defined by the underlying spatial data and are external to the groundwater system; however, depth to water is an environmental variable that can be estimated in more detail and, presumably, in a more physically based manner using a groundwater-flow model than using the spatial data. Model-calculated depths to water within circular buffers in the Great Miami River Basin differed substantially from values derived from the spatial data and had a much larger range. Differences in estimates of area-weighted spatial variables result in corresponding differences in predictions of nitrate occurrence in the aquifer. In addition to the factors affecting contributing recharge areas and estimated explanatory variables, differences in predictions also are a function of the specific set of explanatory variables used and the fitted slope coefficients in a given model. For models that predicted the probability of exceeding 1 and 4 milligrams per liter as nitrogen (mg/L as N), predicted probabilities using variables estimated from circular buffers and contributing recharge areas generally were correlated but differed

  2. Modeling Seismic Cycles of Great Megathrust Earthquakes Across the Scales With Focus at Postseismic Phase

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sobolev, Stephan V.; Muldashev, Iskander A.

    2017-12-01

    Subduction is substantially multiscale process where the stresses are built by long-term tectonic motions, modified by sudden jerky deformations during earthquakes, and then restored by following multiple relaxation processes. Here we develop a cross-scale thermomechanical model aimed to simulate the subduction process from 1 min to million years' time scale. The model employs elasticity, nonlinear transient viscous rheology, and rate-and-state friction. It generates spontaneous earthquake sequences and by using an adaptive time step algorithm, recreates the deformation process as observed naturally during the seismic cycle and multiple seismic cycles. The model predicts that viscosity in the mantle wedge drops by more than three orders of magnitude during the great earthquake with a magnitude above 9. As a result, the surface velocities just an hour or day after the earthquake are controlled by viscoelastic relaxation in the several hundred km of mantle landward of the trench and not by the afterslip localized at the fault as is currently believed. Our model replicates centuries-long seismic cycles exhibited by the greatest earthquakes and is consistent with the postseismic surface displacements recorded after the Great Tohoku Earthquake. We demonstrate that there is no contradiction between extremely low mechanical coupling at the subduction megathrust in South Chile inferred from long-term geodynamic models and appearance of the largest earthquakes, like the Great Chile 1960 Earthquake.

  3. A study on the complexity of a business cycle model with great excitements in non-resonant condition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ma Junhai; Cui Yaqiang; Liulixia

    2009-01-01

    Based on the researches of Szydlowski and Krawiec, we studied the inherent complexity of a chaotic business cycle with great excitements in non-resonant condition. First, we got the first-order and second-order approximate solutions of the system by using multiple scale method. Then deduced the formulation reflecting the complex relations between vibration, phase, bifurcation parameter μ and excite frequency Ω of first-order solution. As the great excitement F varied, the global changes of the system solutions were analyzed. We also explored the different paths leading the systems with different parameter combinations into catastrophe region, fuzzy region or chaos region. Finally, we discussed the evolution trends of business cycle models under the above-mentioned conditions. Hence, this paper has some theoretical and practical significance.

  4. The use of stereolithographic hand held models for evaluation of congenital anomalies of the great arteries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vranicar, Mark; Gregory, William; Douglas, William I; Di Sessa, Peter; Di Sessa, Thomas G

    2008-01-01

    Imaging anomalies of the great vessels has traditionally been accomplished using conventional biplane modalities as well as three-dimensional (3D) video displays. Our aim was to review the use of stereolithography to create 3D models to assess coarctation of the aorta and vascular rings. Twelve patients had high-resolution CT scans to evaluate anomalies of the great arteries (coarctation: 9, vascular ring: 3). Ages were 19 days to 29 years and weights were 3.3 to 139 kg. Digital dicom data from each scan were converted by a commercially available software package into a 3D digital image. The area of interest was selected and the image was exported to a 3D stereolithographic printer to create a 3D model. The models were then evaluated and the results compared to catheterization and surgical findings. All models accurately displayed the pathology investigated. All 3 of the vascular ring models correlated with surgical findings (double arch: 2, pulmonary sling: 1). Models of aortic coarctation allowed clear depictions of discrete narrowing as well as arch hypoplasia and tortuosity. Stereolithography can create realistic 3D models that accurately display aortic pathology and add important additional information, which may have implications regarding surgical and transcatheter interventions and may also be useful teaching tools for parents and students.

  5. Dietary acrylamide intake of adults in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition differs greatly according to geographical region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freisling, Heinz; Moskal, Aurelie; Ferrari, Pietro; Nicolas, Geneviève; Knaze, Viktoria; Clavel-Chapelon, Françoise; Boutron-Ruault, Marie-Christine; Nailler, Laura; Teucher, Birgit; Grote, Verena A; Boeing, Heiner; Clemens, Matthias; Tjønneland, Anne; Olsen, Anja; Overvad, Kim; Quirós, J Ramón; Duell, Eric J; Sánchez, María-José; Amiano, Pilar; Chirlaque, Maria-Dolores; Barricarte, Aurelio; Khaw, Kay-Tee; Wareham, Nicholas J; Crowe, Francesca L; Gallo, Valentina; Oikonomou, Eleni; Naska, Androniki; Trichopoulou, Antonia; Palli, Domenico; Agnoli, Claudia; Tumino, Rosario; Polidoro, Silvia; Mattiello, Amalia; Bueno-de-Mesquita, H Bas; Ocké, Marga C; Peeters, Petra H M; Wirfält, Elisabet; Ericson, Ulrika; Bergdahl, Ingvar A; Johansson, Ingegerd; Hjartåker, Anette; Engeset, Dagrun; Skeie, Guri; Riboli, Elio; Slimani, Nadia

    2013-06-01

    Methodological differences in assessing dietary acrylamide (AA) often hamper comparisons of intake across populations. Our aim was to describe the mean dietary AA intake in 27 centers of 10 European countries according to selected lifestyle characteristics and its contributing food sources in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study. In this cross-sectional analysis, 36 994 men and women, aged 35-74 years completed a single, standardized 24-hour dietary recall using EPIC-Soft. Food consumption data were matched to a harmonized AA database. Intake was computed by gender and center, and across categories of habitual alcohol consumption, smoking status, physical activity, education, and body mass index (BMI). Adjustment was made for participants' age, height, weight, and energy intake using linear regression models. Adjusted mean AA intake across centers ranged from 13 to 47 μg/day in men and from 12 to 39 μg/day in women; intakes were higher in northern European centers. In most centers, intake in women was significantly higher among alcohol drinkers compared with abstainers. There were no associations between AA intake and physical activity, BMI, or education. At least 50 % of AA intake across centers came from two food groups "bread, crisp bread, rusks" and "coffee." The third main contributing food group was "potatoes". Dietary AA intake differs greatly among European adults residing in different geographical regions. This observed heterogeneity in AA intake deserves consideration in the design and interpretation of population-based studies of dietary AA intake and health outcomes.

  6. Modeling transport and deposition of contaminants to ecosystems of concern: a case study for the Laurentian Great Lakes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    MacLeod, Matthew; Mackay, Don

    2004-01-01

    Transfer efficiency (TE) is introduced as a model output that can be used to characterize the relative ability of chemicals to be transported in the environment and deposited to specific target ecosystems. We illustrate this concept by applying the Berkeley-Trent North American contaminant fate model (BETR North America) to identify organic chemicals with properties that result in efficient atmospheric transport and deposition to the Laurentian Great Lakes. By systematically applying the model to hypothetical organic chemicals that span a wide range of environmental partitioning properties, we identify combinations of properties that favor efficient transport and deposition to the Lakes. Five classes of chemicals are identified based on dominant transport and deposition pathways, and specific examples of chemicals in each class are identified and discussed. The role of vegetation in scavenging chemicals from the atmosphere is assessed, and found to have a negligible influence on transfer efficiency to the Great Lakes. Results indicate chemicals with octanol-water (K ow ) and air-water (K aw ) partition coefficients in the range of 10 5 -10 7 and 10 -4 -10 -1 combine efficient transport and deposition to the Great Lakes with potential for biaccumulation in the aquatic food web once they are deposited. A method of estimating the time scale for atmospheric transport and deposition process is suggested, and the effects of degrading reactions in the atmosphere and meteorological conditions on transport efficiency of different classes of chemicals are discussed. In total, this approach provides a method of identifying chemicals that are subject to long-range transport and deposition to specific target ecosystems as a result of their partitioning and persistence characteristics. Supported by an appropriate contaminant fate model, the approach can be applied to any target ecosystem of concern. - Transfer Efficiency is defined as a model-based measure of sources of POPs to

  7. GHG Mitigation Potential of Different Grazing Strategies in the United States Southern Great Plains

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tong Wang

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The possibility of reducing greenhouse gas (GHG emissions by ruminants using improved grazing is investigated by estimating GHG emissions for cow-calf farms under light continuous (LC, heavy continuous (HC and rotational grazing, also known as multi-paddock (MP, management strategies in Southern Great Plain (SGP using life cycle assessment (LCA. Our results indicated a GHG emission with these grazing treatments of 8034.90 kg·CO2e·calf−1·year−1 for cow-calf farms in SGP region, which is high, compared to that for other regions, due to the high percentage (79.6% of enteric CH4 emissions caused by relatively lower feed quality on the unfertilized rangeland. Sensitivity analyses on MP grazing strategy showed that an increase in grass quality and digestibility could potentially reduce GHG emission by 30%. Despite higher GHG emissions on a per calf basis, net GHG emissions in SGP region are potentially negative when carbon (C sequestration is taken into account. With net C emission rates of −2002.8, −1731.6 and −89.5 kg C ha−1·year−1 after converting from HC to MP, HC to LC and from LC to MP, our analysis indicated cow-calf farms converting from continuous to MP grazing in SGP region are likely net carbon sinks for decades.

  8. Distribution and Modeled Transport of Plastic Pollution in the Great Lakes, the World's Largest Freshwater Resource

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rachel N. Cable

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Most plastic pollution originates on land. As such, freshwater bodies serve as conduits for the transport of plastic litter to the ocean. Understanding the concentrations and fluxes of plastic litter in freshwater ecosystems is critical to our understanding of the global plastic litter budget and underpins the success of future management strategies. We conducted a replicated field survey of surface plastic concentrations in four lakes in the North American Great Lakes system, the largest contiguous freshwater system on the planet. We then modeled plastic transport to resolve spatial and temporal variability of plastic distribution in one of the Great Lakes, Lake Erie. Triplicate surface samples were collected at 38 stations in mid-summer of 2014. Plastic particles >106 μm in size were quantified. Concentrations were highest near populated urban areas and their water infrastructure. In the highest concentration trawl, nearly 2 million fragments km−2 were found in the Detroit River—dwarfing previous reports of Great Lakes plastic abundances by over 4-fold. Yet, the accuracy of single trawl counts was challenged: within-station plastic abundances varied 0- to 3-fold between replicate trawls. In the smallest size class (106–1,000 μm, false positive rates of 12–24% were determined analytically for plastic vs. non-plastic, while false negative rates averaged ~18%. Though predicted to form in summer by the existing Lake Erie circulation model, our transport model did not predict a permanent surface “Lake Erie Garbage Patch” in its central basin—a trend supported by field survey data. Rather, general eastward transport with recirculation in the major basins was predicted. Further, modeled plastic residence times were drastically influenced by plastic buoyancy. Neutrally buoyant plastics—those with the same density as the ambient water—were flushed several times slower than plastics floating at the water's surface and exceeded the

  9. Gender Differences in Mental Health Outcomes before, during, and after the Great Recession.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dagher, Rada K; Chen, Jie; Thomas, Stephen B

    2015-01-01

    We examined gender differences in mental health outcomes during and post-recession versus pre-recession. We utilized 2005-2006, 2008-2009, and 2010-2011 data from the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey. Females had lower odds of depression diagnoses during and post-recession and better mental health during the recession, but higher odds of anxiety diagnoses post-recession. Males had lower odds of depression diagnoses and better mental health during and post-recession and lower Kessler 6 scores post-recession. We conducted stratified analyses, which confirmed that the aforementioned findings were consistent across the four different regions of the U.S., by employment status, income and health care utilization. Importantly, we found that the higher odds of anxiety diagnoses among females after the recession were mainly prominent among specific subgroups of females: those who lived in the Northeast or the Midwest, the unemployed, and those with low household income. Gender differences in mental health in association with the economic recession highlight the importance of policymakers taking these differences into consideration when designing economic and social policies to address economic downturns. Future research should examine the reasons behind the decreased depression diagnoses among both genders, and whether they signify decreased mental healthcare utilization or increased social support and more time for exercise and leisure activities.

  10. Comparative Analysis of Labor Relations in Different European Countries: Great Britain and Germany

    OpenAIRE

    Cristian MARINAS; Monica CONDRUZ-BACESCU

    2010-01-01

    The issue of labor relations is highly complex, given the fact that each of the parties involved in the employment relationship (employees, managers, employee representatives, trade unions, employers, state) have objectives and some points of view in their regulation. Moreover, at the level of the whole European area, there are many differences from one country to another regarding the quality of labor relations. In this article, the authors aim to highlight some elements of specificity in te...

  11. Glacial isostatic adjustment at the Laurentide ice sheet margin: Models and observations in the Great Lakes region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Braun, Alexander; Kuo, Chung-Yen; Shum, C. K.; Wu, Patrick; van der Wal, Wouter; Fotopoulos, Georgia

    2008-10-01

    Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) modelling in North America relies on relative sea level information which is primarily obtained from areas far away from the uplift region. The lack of accurate geodetic observations in the Great Lakes region, which is located in the transition zone between uplift and subsidence due to the deglaciation of the Laurentide ice sheet, has prevented more detailed studies of this former margin of the ice sheet. Recently, observations of vertical crustal motion from improved GPS network solutions and combined tide gauge and satellite altimetry solutions have become available. This study compares these vertical motion observations with predictions obtained from 70 different GIA models. The ice sheet margin is distinct from the centre and far field of the uplift because the sensitivity of the GIA process towards Earth parameters such as mantle viscosity is very different. Specifically, the margin area is most sensitive to the uppermost mantle viscosity and allows for better constraints of this parameter. The 70 GIA models compared herein have different ice loading histories (ICE-3/4/5G) and Earth parameters including lateral heterogeneities. The root-mean-square differences between the 6 best models and the two sets of observations (tide gauge/altimetry and GPS) are 0.66 and 1.57 mm/yr, respectively. Both sets of independent observations are highly correlated and show a very similar fit to the models, which indicates their consistent quality. Therefore, both data sets can be considered as a means for constraining and assessing the quality of GIA models in the Great Lakes region and the former margin of the Laurentide ice sheet.

  12. Impact of great subduction earthquakes on the long-term forearc morphology, insight from mechanical modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cubas, Nadaya

    2017-04-01

    The surge of great subduction earthquakes during the last fifteen years provided numerous observations requiring revisiting our understanding of large seismic events mechanics. For instance, we now have clear evidence that a significant part of the upper plate deformation is permanently acquired. The link between great earthquakes and long-term deformation offers a new perspective for the relief construction understanding. In addition, a better understanding of these relations could provide us with new constraints on earthquake mechanics. It is also of fundamental importance for seismic risk assessment. In this presentation, I will compile recent results obtained from mechanical modelling linking megathrust ruptures with upper-plate permanent deformation and discuss their impact. We will first show that, in good accordance with lab experiments, aseismic zones are characterized by frictions larger or equal to 0.1 whereas seismic asperities have dynamic frictions lower than 0.05. This difference will control the long-term upper-plate morphology. The larger values along aseismic zones allow the wedge to reach the critical state, and will lead to active thrust systems forming a relief. On the contrary, low dynamic friction along seismic asperities will place the taper in the sub-critical domain impeding any internal deformation. This will lead to the formation of forearc basins inducing negative gravity anomalies. Since aseismic zones have higher friction and larger taper, fully creeping segments will tend to develop peninsulas. On the contrary, fully locked segments with low dynamic friction and very low taper will favor subsiding coasts. The taper variation due to megathrust friction is also expressed through a correlation between coast-to-trench distance and forearc coupling (e.g., Mexican and South-American subduction zones). We will then discuss how variations of frictional properties along the megathrust can induce splay fault activation. For instance, we can

  13. Why Different Drought Indexes Show Distinct Future Drought Risk Outcomes in the U.S. Great Plains?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, S.; Hayes, M. J.; Trnka, M.

    2015-12-01

    Vigorous discussions and disagreements about the future changes in drought intensity in the US Great Plains have been taking place recently within the literature. These discussions have involved widely varying estimates based on drought indices and model-based projections of the future. To investigate and understand the causes for such a disparity between these previous estimates, we analyzed 10 commonly-used drought indexes using the output from 26 state-of-the-art climate models. These drought indices were computed using potential evapotranspiration estimated by the physically-based Penman-Monteith method (PE_pm) and the empirically-based Thornthwaite method (PE_th). The results showed that the short-term drought indicators are similar to modeled surface soil moisture and show a small but consistent drying trend in the future. The long-term drought indicators and the total column soil moisture, however, are consistent in projecting more intense future drought. When normalized, the drought indices with PE_th all show unprecedented and possibly unrealistic future drying, while the drought indices with PE_pm show comparable dryness with the modeled soil moisture. Additionally, the drought indices with PE_pm are closely related to soil moisture during both the 20th and 21st Centuries. Overall, the drought indices with PE_pm, as well as the modeled total column soil moisture, suggest a widespread and very significant drying of the Great Plains region toward the end of the Century. Our results suggested that the sharp contracts about future drought risk in the Great Plains discussed in previous studies are caused by 1) comparing the projected changes in short-term droughts with that of the long-term droughts, and/or 2) computing the atmospheric evaporative demand using the empirically-based method (e.g., PE_th). Our analysis may be applied for drought projections in other regions across the globe.

  14. Cognitive Ageing in Great Britain in the New Century: Cohort Differences in Episodic Memory.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gindo Tampubolon

    Full Text Available Dementias in high income countries are set to be the third major burden of disease even as older people are increasingly required to think for themselves how to provide for their lives in retirement. Meanwhile the period of older age continues to extend with increase in life expectancy. This challenge demands an understanding of how cognition changes over an extended period in later life. But studying cognitive ageing in the population faces a difficulty from the fact that older respondents are liable to leave (attrite before study completion. This study tested three hypotheses: trajectories of cognitive ageing in Britain show an improvement beyond the age of 50; and they are lifted by secular improvement in cognition across cohorts; lastly they are susceptible to distortion due to attrition.Using the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing, this paper studied trajectories of episodic memory of Britons aged 50-89 from 2002 to 2013 (N = 5931. Using joint models the analysis found that levels of episodic memory follow a curvilinear shape, not a steady decline, in later life. The findings also revealed secular improvement in cognitive ageing such that as a cohort is being replaced episodic memory levels in the population improve. The analysis lastly demonstrated that failure to simultaneously model attrition can produce distorted pictures of cognitive ageing.Old age in this century is not necessarily a period dominated by cognitive decline. In identifying behavioural factors associated with better cognitive ageing, such as social connections of traditional and online kinds, the paper raises possibilities of mustering an adequate response to the cognition challenge.

  15. Steady-state numerical groundwater flow model of the Great Basin carbonate and alluvial aquifer system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brooks, Lynette E.; Masbruch, Melissa D.; Sweetkind, Donald S.; Buto, Susan G.

    2014-01-01

    This report describes the construction, calibration, evaluation, and results of a steady-state numerical groundwater flow model of the Great Basin carbonate and alluvial aquifer system that was developed as part of the U.S. Geological Survey National Water Census Initiative to evaluate the nation’s groundwater availability. The study area spans 110,000 square miles across five states. The numerical model uses MODFLOW-2005, and incorporates and tests complex hydrogeologic and hydrologic elements of a conceptual understanding of an interconnected groundwater system throughout the region, including mountains, basins, consolidated rocks, and basin fill. The level of discretization in this model has not been previously available throughout the study area.

  16. Development of models to inform a national Daily Landslide Hazard Assessment for Great Britain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dijkstra, Tom A.; Reeves, Helen J.; Dashwood, Claire; Pennington, Catherine; Freeborough, Katy; Mackay, Jonathan D.; Uhlemann, Sebastian S.; Chambers, Jonathan E.; Wilkinson, Paul B.

    2015-04-01

    The British Geological Survey (BGS) provides landside hazard information as part of its strategic role. This includes, among others, the issuing of a national Daily Landslide Hazard Assessment (DLHA) one of the hazards assessments issued by the Natural Hazard Partnership. A range of tools are currently under development to further develop reliability and enhance the granularity of these assessments. The BGS has three datasets that support and underpin this research; the National Landslide Database (NLD), the DiGMap mass movement layer and GeoSure. The NLD holds more than 16,500 records of landslides across Great Britain (GB) stored in an Oracle database that is accessible through an ESRI ® ArcGIS interface. DiGMap comprises a digital map layer with outlines of all landslides recorded by field geologists. GeoSure is a BGS product that assesses the potential for ground movement across GB in six layers, one of which is landslide potential. The GeoSure landslide potential layer incorporates information on conditioning factors, such as local geology, geotechnical parameters and topography. These are combined within a GIS to derive a map showing where a landslide may occur under favourable conditions (e.g. persistent wet conditions due to adverse weather). Different types of terrain will be affected by different modes of landsliding and a series of hierarchical landslide domains have been established capturing the spatial consistency of slope deformation response. Each landslide domain represents an area of similar physiographic and geological characteristics which has shaped the style of landsliding (recognising relic, active and potentially active processes). In turn, this enables development of regional thresholds that are relevant to characteristic landslides in these domains. The wet period from summer 2012 into early spring 2013 resulted in a surge of recorded landslides, particularly in SW England and S Wales. Approximations of regional effective precipitation

  17. Evaluating Hydrologic Transience in Watershed Delineation, Numerical Modeling and Solute Transport in the Great Basin. Clayton Valley, Nevada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Underdown, C. G.; Boutt, D. F.; Hynek, S. A.; Munk, L. A.

    2017-12-01

    Importance of transience in managed groundwater systems is generally determined by timeframe of management decisions. Watersheds with management times shorter than the aquifer (watershed) response time, or the time it takes a watershed to recover from a change in hydrologic state, would not include the new state and are treated as steady-state. However, these watersheds will experience transient response between hydrologic states. Watershed response time is a function of length. Therefore flat, regional watersheds characteristic of the Great Basin have long response times. Defining watershed extents as the area in which the water budget is balanced means inputs equal outputs. Steady-state budgets in the Great Basin have been balanced by extending watershed boundaries to include more area for recharge; however, the length and age of requisite flow paths are poorly constrained and often unrealistic. Inclusion of stored water in hydrologic budget calculations permits water balance within smaller contributing areas. As groundwater flow path lengths, depths, and locations differ between steady-state and transient systems, so do solute transport mechanisms. To observe how transience affects response time and solute transport, a refined (transient) version of the USGS steady-state groundwater flow model of the Great Basin is evaluated. This model is used to assess transient changes in contributing area for Clayton Valley, a lithium-brine producing endorheic basin in southwestern Nevada. Model runs of various recharge, discharge and storage bounds are created from conceptual models based upon historical climate data. Comparing results of the refined model to USGS groundwater observations allows for model validation and comparison against the USGS steady-state model. The transient contributing area to Clayton Valley is 85% smaller than that calculated from the steady-state solution, however several long flow paths important to both water and solute budgets at Clayton Valley

  18. Subcellular differences in handling Cu excess in three freshwater fish species contributes greatly to their differences in sensitivity to Cu

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eyckmans, Marleen, E-mail: marleen.eyckmans@ua.ac.be [Laboratory for Ecophysiology, Biochemistry and Toxicology, University of Antwerp, Groenenborgerlaan 171, 2020 Antwerp (Belgium); Blust, Ronny; De Boeck, Gudrun [Laboratory for Ecophysiology, Biochemistry and Toxicology, University of Antwerp, Groenenborgerlaan 171, 2020 Antwerp (Belgium)

    2012-08-15

    Since changes in metal distribution among tissues and subcellular fractions can provide insights in metal toxicity and tolerance, we investigated this partitioning of Cu in gill and liver tissue of rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss), common carp (Cyprinus carpio) and gibel carp (Carassius auratus gibelio). These fish species are known to differ in their sensitivity to Cu exposure with gibel carp being the most tolerant and rainbow trout the most sensitive. After an exposure to 50 {mu}g/l (0.79 {mu}M) Cu for 24 h, 3 days, 1 week and 1 month, gills and liver of control and exposed fish were submitted to a differential centrifugation procedure. Interestingly, there was a difference in accumulated Cu in the three fish species, even in control fishes. Where the liver of rainbow trout showed extremely high Cu concentrations under control conditions, the amount of Cu accumulated in their gills was much less than in common and gibel carp. At the subcellular level, the gills of rainbow trout appeared to distribute the additional Cu exclusively in the biologically active metal pool (BAM; contains heat-denaturable fraction and organelle fraction). A similar response could be seen in gill tissue of common carp, although the percentage of Cu in the BAM of common carp was lower compared to rainbow trout. Gill tissue of gibel carp accumulated more Cu in the biologically inactive metal pool (BIM compared to BAM; contains heat-stable fraction and metal-rich granule fraction). The liver of rainbow trout seemed much more adequate in handling the excess Cu (compared to its gills), since the storage of Cu in the BIM increased. Furthermore, the high % of Cu in the metal-rich granule fraction and heat-stable fraction in the liver of common carp and especially gibel carp together with the better Cu handling in gill tissue, pointed out the ability of the carp species to minimize the disadvantages related to Cu stress. The differences in Cu distribution at the subcellular level of gills

  19. Feeding and energetics of the great scallop, Pecten maximus, through a DEB model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lavaud, Romain; Flye-Sainte-Marie, Jonathan; Jean, Fred; Emmery, Antoine; Strand, Øivind; Kooijman, Sebastiaan A. L. M.

    2014-11-01

    We developed a full life-cycle bioenergetic model for the great scallop Pecten maximus relying on the concepts of the Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) theory. The covariation method was implemented to estimate the parameters of a standard DEB model. Such models are able to predict various metabolic processes from a food availability marker and temperature in the environment. However, suspension-feeders are likely to feed on various trophic sources, from microalgae cells to detritus. They are also able to sort and select food particles very efficiently, depending on their size, energetic value or quality. The present model includes a mechanistic description of the feeding processes, based on Kooijman's Synthesizing Unit principle which allows to deal with several food sources. Moreover we tested the hypothesis of a differential selectivity between two potential substrates (phytoplankton cell and the remaining particulate organic matter). Simulations of shell length, daily shell growth rate, dry weight and gonado-somatic index (GSI) variations were realized and compared to field data from a monitoring conducted in the Bay of Brest (Brittany, France) for six years. The model shows its capacity to efficiently reproduce all life history traits of the wild great scallops. Predicted length data were estimated to the nearest millimeter. The fit of simulated weights to observed data was very satisfactory. GSI predictions were also in accordance with observations but improvements are required to better capture the sharp increase of gametogenesis at the beginning of the year. Finally, results bring evidences that P. maximus is actually preferentially feed on living algae cells rather than on the rest of organic particles.

  20. PENGEMBANGAN MODEL PEMBELAJARAN PRAKARYA DAN KEWIRAUSAHAAN DENGAN PRINSIP THE GREAT YOUNG ENTREPRENEUR DI SMK UNTUK KURIKULUM 2013

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Catarina Wahyu Dyah Purbaningrum

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Penelitian ini bertujuan: (1 menghasilkan model pembelajaran prakarya dan kewirausahaan  dengan prinsip “The Great Young Entrepreneur” di SMK untuk kurikulum 2013; (2 menghasilkan perangkat pembelajaran prakarya dan kewirausahaan di SMK untuk kurikulum 2013 yang dapat menumbuhkan mental dan motivasi peserta didik untuk berwirausaha; (3 mengetahui tingkat kepraktisan model pembelajaran prakarya dan kewirausahaan dengan prinsip The Great Young Entrepeneur yang telah dikembangkan; dan (4 mengetahui tingkat keefektifan model pembelajaran prakarya dan kewirausahaan dengan prinsip The Great Young Entrepreneur yang telah dikembangkan. Hasil penelitian adalah sebagai berikut: (1 Model pembelajaran prakarya dan kewirausahaan dengan prinsip The Great Young Entrepreneur dapat digunakan dengan baik.(2 Perangkat pembelajaran yang dihasilkan yaitu: buku panduan model dan materi ajar. (3 Model pembelajaran prakarya dan kewirausahaan dengan prinsip TGYE dan perangkat pembelajaran berdasarkan hasil ujicoba memenuhi kriteria praktis.(4 Model pembelajaran prakarya dan kewirausahaan dengan prinsip TGYE dan perangkat pembelajaran memenuhi kriteria efektif.

  1. Forecasting effects of climate change on Great Lakes fisheries: models that link habitat supply to population dynamics can help

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Michael L.; Shuter, Brian J.; Zhao, Yingming; Stockwell, Jason D.

    2006-01-01

    Future changes to climate in the Great Lakes may have important consequences for fisheries. Evidence suggests that Great Lakes air and water temperatures have risen and the duration of ice cover has lessened during the past century. Global circulation models (GCMs) suggest future warming and increases in precipitation in the region. We present new evidence that water temperatures have risen in Lake Erie, particularly during summer and winter in the period 1965–2000. GCM forecasts coupled with physical models suggest lower annual runoff, less ice cover, and lower lake levels in the future, but the certainty of these forecasts is low. Assessment of the likely effects of climate change on fish stocks will require an integrative approach that considers several components of habitat rather than water temperature alone. We recommend using mechanistic models that couple habitat conditions to population demographics to explore integrated effects of climate-caused habitat change and illustrate this approach with a model for Lake Erie walleye (Sander vitreum). We show that the combined effect on walleye populations of plausible changes in temperature, river hydrology, lake levels, and light penetration can be quite different from that which would be expected based on consideration of only a single factor.

  2. Sector model analysis of risk on cross-jurisdictional treatment of disaster waste related to the Great East Japan Earthquake

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nagashima, Miori; Itokawa, Etsuko; Ozuka, Yohei

    2012-01-01

    This study addressed the controversial issue of disaster waste treatment in the reconstruction efforts following the Great East Japan Earthquake. Using the Sector Model (Matsumoto 2009), we categorized a range of actions taken in relation to the cross-jurisdictional treatment into the four sectors, government, industry, academia, and private. The analysis through this Sector Model made it possible to map the entire layout of waste treatment, inclusive of less-visible industry and academia sectors. Accordingly, we have argued that differences of risk awareness are not necessarily due to sector differences but rather depend on two aspects of the disaster waste treatment; the safety levels and the nationwide treatment of waste in Japan. We further suggest that the discrepancy in the arguments on safety levels emerged as a result of scientific under-determination and cross-jurisdictional treatment from social and/or political under-determination. (author)

  3. Partial least squares for efficient models of fecal indicator bacteria on Great Lakes beaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brooks, Wesley R.; Fienen, Michael N.; Corsi, Steven R.

    2013-01-01

    At public beaches, it is now common to mitigate the impact of water-borne pathogens by posting a swimmer's advisory when the concentration of fecal indicator bacteria (FIB) exceeds an action threshold. Since culturing the bacteria delays public notification when dangerous conditions exist, regression models are sometimes used to predict the FIB concentration based on readily-available environmental measurements. It is hard to know which environmental parameters are relevant to predicting FIB concentration, and the parameters are usually correlated, which can hurt the predictive power of a regression model. Here the method of partial least squares (PLS) is introduced to automate the regression modeling process. Model selection is reduced to the process of setting a tuning parameter to control the decision threshold that separates predicted exceedances of the standard from predicted non-exceedances. The method is validated by application to four Great Lakes beaches during the summer of 2010. Performance of the PLS models compares favorably to that of the existing state-of-the-art regression models at these four sites.

  4. Assessing Different Causes of Crown-of-Thorns Starfish Outbreaks and Appropriate Responses for Management on the Great Barrier Reef.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Babcock, Russell C; Dambacher, Jeffrey M; Morello, Elisabetta B; Plagányi, Éva E; Hayes, Keith R; Sweatman, Hugh P A; Pratchett, Morgan S

    2016-01-01

    The crown-of-thorns starfish Acanthaster planci (COTS) has contributed greatly to declines in coral cover on Australia's Great Barrier Reef, and remains one of the major acute disturbances on Indo-Pacific coral reefs. Despite uncertainty about the underlying causes of outbreaks and the management responses that might address them, few studies have critically and directly compared competing hypotheses. This study uses qualitative modelling to compare hypotheses relating to outbreak initiation, explicitly considering the potential role of positive feedbacks, elevated nutrients, and removal of starfish predators by fishing. When nutrients and fishing are considered in isolation, the models indicate that a range of alternative hypotheses are capable of explaining outbreak initiation with similar levels of certainty. The models also suggest that outbreaks may be caused by multiple factors operating simultaneously, rather than by single proximal causes. As the complexity and realism of the models increased, the certainty of outcomes decreased, but key areas that require further research to improve the structure of the models were identified. Nutrient additions were likely to result in outbreaks only when COTS larvae alone benefitted from nutrients. Similarly, the effects of fishing on the decline of corals depended on the complexity of interactions among several categories of fishes. Our work suggests that management approaches which seek to be robust to model structure uncertainty should allow for multiple potential causes of outbreaks. Monitoring programs can provide tests of alternative potential causes of outbreaks if they specifically monitor all key taxa at reefs that are exposed to appropriate combinations of potential causal factors.

  5. Assessing Different Causes of Crown-of-Thorns Starfish Outbreaks and Appropriate Responses for Management on the Great Barrier Reef.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Russell C Babcock

    Full Text Available The crown-of-thorns starfish Acanthaster planci (COTS has contributed greatly to declines in coral cover on Australia's Great Barrier Reef, and remains one of the major acute disturbances on Indo-Pacific coral reefs. Despite uncertainty about the underlying causes of outbreaks and the management responses that might address them, few studies have critically and directly compared competing hypotheses. This study uses qualitative modelling to compare hypotheses relating to outbreak initiation, explicitly considering the potential role of positive feedbacks, elevated nutrients, and removal of starfish predators by fishing. When nutrients and fishing are considered in isolation, the models indicate that a range of alternative hypotheses are capable of explaining outbreak initiation with similar levels of certainty. The models also suggest that outbreaks may be caused by multiple factors operating simultaneously, rather than by single proximal causes. As the complexity and realism of the models increased, the certainty of outcomes decreased, but key areas that require further research to improve the structure of the models were identified. Nutrient additions were likely to result in outbreaks only when COTS larvae alone benefitted from nutrients. Similarly, the effects of fishing on the decline of corals depended on the complexity of interactions among several categories of fishes. Our work suggests that management approaches which seek to be robust to model structure uncertainty should allow for multiple potential causes of outbreaks. Monitoring programs can provide tests of alternative potential causes of outbreaks if they specifically monitor all key taxa at reefs that are exposed to appropriate combinations of potential causal factors.

  6. Enamel hypoplasia in deciduous teeth of great apes: do differences in defect prevalence imply differential levels of physiological stress?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lukacs, J R

    1999-11-01

    This paper presents new data on enamel hypoplasia in the deciduous canine teeth of great apes. The enamel defect under consideration is known as localized hypoplasia of primary canines (LHPC), and is characterized by an area of thin or missing enamel on the labial surface of deciduous canine teeth (Skinner [1986a] Am. J. Phys. Anthropol. 69:59-69). Goals of this study are: 1) to determine if significant differences in the frequency of LHPC occur among three genera of great apes, and 2) to evaluate variation in LHPC prevalence among great apes as evidence of differential physiological stress. Infant and juvenile apes with deciduous teeth were examined at the Cleveland Museum of Natural History (n = 100) and at the Smithsonian Institution, National Museum of Natural History (n = 36). Deciduous teeth were observed under oblique incandescent light, with the naked eye and with a 10x hand lens. Enamel hypoplasia was scored using Federation Dentaire International (FDI)-Defects of Dental Enamel (DDE) standards. Hypoplasias were recorded by drawing defect location and size on a dental chart, and by measuring defect size and location with Helios needlepoint dial calipers. The prevalence of LHPC is reported by genus and sex, using two approaches: 1) the frequency of affected individuals-those having one or more deciduous canine teeth scored positive for LHPC; and 2) the number of canine teeth scored positive for LHPC as a percentage of all canine teeth observed. Variation in defect size and location will be described elsewhere. Localized hypoplasia of primary canine teeth was found in 62.5% of 128 individual apes, and in 45.5% of 398 great ape deciduous canines. As in humans, LHPC is the most common form of enamel hypoplasia in deciduous teeth of great apes, while LEH is rare or absent. The distribution and pattern of expression of LHPC in great apes is similar to that described in humans: side differences are not significant, but mandibular canines exhibit the defect two to

  7. Modeling transport and deposition of contaminants to ecosystems of concern: a case study for the Laurentian Great Lakes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacLeod, Matthew; Mackay, Don

    2004-01-01

    Transfer efficiency (TE) is introduced as a model output that can be used to characterize the relative ability of chemicals to be transported in the environment and deposited to specific target ecosystems. We illustrate this concept by applying the Berkeley-Trent North American contaminant fate model (BETR North America) to identify organic chemicals with properties that result in efficient atmospheric transport and deposition to the Laurentian Great Lakes. By systematically applying the model to hypothetical organic chemicals that span a wide range of environmental partitioning properties, we identify combinations of properties that favor efficient transport and deposition to the Lakes. Five classes of chemicals are identified based on dominant transport and deposition pathways, and specific examples of chemicals in each class are identified and discussed. The role of vegetation in scavenging chemicals from the atmosphere is assessed, and found to have a negligible influence on transfer efficiency to the Great Lakes. Results indicate chemicals with octanol-water (K(ow)) and air-water (K(aw)) partition coefficients in the range of 10(5)-10(7) and 10(-4)-10(-1) combine efficient transport and deposition to the Great Lakes with potential for biaccumulation in the aquatic food web once they are deposited. A method of estimating the time scale for atmospheric transport and deposition process is suggested, and the effects of degrading reactions in the atmosphere and meteorological conditions on transport efficiency of different classes of chemicals are discussed. In total, this approach provides a method of identifying chemicals that are subject to long-range transport and deposition to specific target ecosystems as a result of their partitioning and persistence characteristics. Supported by an appropriate contaminant fate model, the approach can be applied to any target ecosystem of concern.

  8. Natural resource damage assessment models for Great Lakes, coastal, and marine environments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    French, D.P.; Reed, M.

    1993-01-01

    A computer model of the physical fates, biological effects, and economic damages resulting from releases of oil and other hazardous materials has been developed by Applied Science Associates to be used in Type A natural resource damage assessments under the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act of 1980 (CERCLA). Natural resource damage assessment models for great lakes environments and for coastal and marine environments will become available. A coupled geographical information system allows gridded representation of complex coastal boundaries, variable bathymetry, shoreline types, and multiple biological habitats. The physical and biological models are three dimensional. Direct mortality from toxic concentrations and oiling, impacts of habitat loss, and food web losses are included in the model. Estimation of natural resource damages is based both on the lost value of injured resources and on the costs of restoring or replacing those resources. The models are implemented on a personal computer, with a VGA graphical user interface. Following public review, the models will become a formal part of the US regulatory framework. The models are programmed in a modular and generic fashion, to facilitate transportability and application to new areas. The model has several major components. Physical fates and biological effects submodels estimate impacts or injury resulting from a spill. The hydrodynamic submodel calculates currents that transport contaminant(s) or organisms. The compensable value submodel values injuries to help assess damages. The restoration submodel determines what restoration actions will most cost-effectively reduce injuries as measured by compensable values. Injury and restoration costs are assessed for each of a series of habitats (environments) affected by the spill. Environmental, chemical, and biological databases supply required information to the model for computing fates and effects (injury)

  9. Modeling of periodic great earthquakes on the San Andreas fault: Effects of nonlinear crustal rheology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reches, Ze'ev; Schubert, Gerald; Anderson, Charles

    1994-01-01

    We analyze the cycle of great earthquakes along the San Andreas fault with a finite element numerical model of deformation in a crust with a nonlinear viscoelastic rheology. The viscous component of deformation has an effective viscosity that depends exponentially on the inverse absolute temperature and nonlinearity on the shear stress; the elastic deformation is linear. Crustal thickness and temperature are constrained by seismic and heat flow data for California. The models are for anti plane strain in a 25-km-thick crustal layer having a very long, vertical strike-slip fault; the crustal block extends 250 km to either side of the fault. During the earthquake cycle that lasts 160 years, a constant plate velocity v(sub p)/2 = 17.5 mm yr is applied to the base of the crust and to the vertical end of the crustal block 250 km away from the fault. The upper half of the fault is locked during the interseismic period, while its lower half slips at the constant plate velocity. The locked part of the fault is moved abruptly 2.8 m every 160 years to simulate great earthquakes. The results are sensitive to crustal rheology. Models with quartzite-like rheology display profound transient stages in the velocity, displacement, and stress fields. The predicted transient zone extends about 3-4 times the crustal thickness on each side of the fault, significantly wider than the zone of deformation in elastic models. Models with diabase-like rheology behave similarly to elastic models and exhibit no transient stages. The model predictions are compared with geodetic observations of fault-parallel velocities in northern and central California and local rates of shear strain along the San Andreas fault. The observations are best fit by models which are 10-100 times less viscous than a quartzite-like rheology. Since the lower crust in California is composed of intermediate to mafic rocks, the present result suggests that the in situ viscosity of the crustal rock is orders of magnitude

  10. Modelling the emerging pollutant diclofenac with the GREAT-ER model: Application to the Llobregat River Basin

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aldekoa, Joana, E-mail: joaalma2@cam.upv.es [Universitat Politècnica de València, Camino de Vera s/n, 46022 Valencia (Spain); Medici, Chiara [Universitat Politècnica de València, Camino de Vera s/n, 46022 Valencia (Spain); Osorio, Victoria; Pérez, Sandra [Institute of Environmental Assessment and Water Research, Jordi Girona 18-26, 08034 Barcelona (Spain); Marcé, Rafael [Catalan Institute for Water Research, Emili Grahit 101, 17003 Girona (Spain); Barceló, Damià [Institute of Environmental Assessment and Water Research, Jordi Girona 18-26, 08034 Barcelona (Spain); Francés, Félix [Universitat Politècnica de València, Camino de Vera s/n, 46022 Valencia (Spain)

    2013-12-15

    Highlights: • Diclofenac levels were measured in 14 sampling sites of the Llobregat River (Spain). • GREAT-ER model was used to simulate diclofenac concentrations in the Llobregat River. • Deterministic and stochastic modelling approaches were contrasted. • Diclofenac discharge into the basin was estimated for the studied period. • Consistent degradation rates were predicted and compared with literature values. -- Abstract: The present research aims at giving an insight into the increasingly important issue of water pollution due to emerging contaminants. In particular, the source and fate of the non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug diclofenac have been analyzed at catchment scale for the Llobregat River in Catalonia (Spain). In fact, water from the Llobregat River is used to supply a significant part of the Metropolitan Area of Barcelona. At the same time, 59 wastewater treatment plants discharge into this basin. GREAT-ER model has been implemented in this basin in order to reproduce a static balance for this pollutant for two field campaigns data set. The results highlighted the ability of GREAT-ER to simulate the diclofenac concentrations in the Llobregat Catchment; however, this study also pointed out the urgent need for longer time series of observed data and a better knowledge of wastewater plants outputs and their parameterization in order to obtain more reliable results.

  11. Composition of physiologically important fatty acids in great tits differs between urban and rural populations on a seasonal basis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martin N Andersson

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Fatty acids (FA have crucial functions in animals, affecting e.g. inflammatory responses, thermoregulation, and cell membrane fluidity. Diet and ambient temperature affect animals’ FA composition, which, in turn, may influence these physiological processes. Great tits (Parus major −common in both urban and rural habitats− are mainly granivorous during winter and insectivorous during summer. These diets show pronounced differences in FA composition. Such variation has context-dependent effects on physiology, because the thermal environment, food availability, and levels of pro-inflammatory environmental stressors differ between urban and rural areas. Thus, we investigated how great tit plasma FA composition varied between urban and rural habitats and across seasons. Eight FAs differed between urban and rural birds. Among these, arachidonic acid (omega (ω-6 polyunsaturated FA with thermoregulatory and pro-inflammatory properties was more abundant in urban than rural birds in winter, whereas ω-3 FAs with anti-inflammatory properties were more abundant in rural birds. The difference in pro- and anti-inflammatory FAs suggest that the negative health effects that urban birds suffer from being exposed to higher levels of pollutants might be enhanced by an elevated inflammatory response. Eight FAs differed between winter and summer birds. This variation reflected the diet change: FAs common in seeds, e.g. oleic- and linoleic acid, were present in higher amounts in winter birds, whereas ω-3 polyunsaturated FAs that are common in caterpillars were more abundant in summer birds. Overall, a larger seasonal variation was seen among the urban birds. This study is the first to reveal a difference in FA composition between urban and rural populations for all animals studied to date. Future experiments should unravel the physiological implications of this variation, and ultimately, link its effects to fitness of animals with different physiological and

  12. Development of a finite element model of the ligamentous cervical vertebral column of a Great Dane.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonelli, Marília de Albuquerque; Shah, Anoli; Goel, Vijay; Costa, Fabiano Séllos; da Costa, Ronaldo Casimiro

    2018-01-29

    Cervical spondylomyelopathy (CSM), also known as wobbler syndrome, affects mainly large and giant-breed dogs, causing compression of the cervical spinal cord and/or nerve roots. Structural and dynamic components seem to play a role in the development of CSM; however, pathogenesis is not yet fully understood. Finite element models have been used for years in human medicine to study the dynamic behavior of structures, but it has been mostly overlooked in veterinary studies. To our knowledge, no specific ligamentous spine models have been developed to investigate naturally occurring canine myelopathies and possible surgical treatments. The goal of this study was to develop a finite element model (FEM) of the C 2 -C 7 segment of the ligamentous cervical vertebral column of a neurologically normal Great Dane without imaging changes. The FEM of the intact C 2 -C 7 cervical vertebral column had a total of 188,906 elements (175,715 tetra elements and 12,740 hexa elements). The range of motion (in degrees) for the FEM subjected to a moment of 2Nm was approximately 27.94 in flexion, 25.86 in extension, 24.14 in left lateral bending, 25.27 in right lateral bending, 17.44 in left axial rotation, and 16.72 in right axial rotation. We constructed a ligamentous FEM of the C 2 -C 7 vertebral column of a Great Dane dog, which can serve as a platform to be modified and adapted for studies related to biomechanics of the cervical vertebral column and to further improve studies on osseous-associated cervical spondylomyelopathy. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Forecasting Land-Use and Land-Cover in the Great Plains Using Scenario-Based Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bouchard, M. A.; Sohl, T. L.; Sleeter, B. M.; Sayler, K.; Reker, R.; Zhu, Z.

    2011-12-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey LandCarbon project is assessing potential carbon storage under various Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). As part of this assessment, the FORE-SCE (FOREcasting SCEnarios of future land cover) model is being used to project land use and land cover (LULC) change annually through 2050. Downscaled IPCC scenarios were used to project LULC change by Omernik Level II Ecoregions, beginning with the Great Plains. Scenarios consistent with SRES storylines A1B, A2, B1, and B2 were developed using the Integrated Model to Assess the Greenhouse Effect (IMAGE), historical land-use histories from the USGS Land Cover Trends project, and workshops of land-use experts. The FORE-SCE model was then used to create spatially explicit LULC maps at a 250-meter pixel resolution to show differences in projected land cover change between scenarios. Economically-based storylines had large increases in agriculture and a loss of natural land covers due to the high demand for agricultural commodities. Environmentally-based scenarios had stable to slight increases in wetlands and grasslands due to conservation of natural land cover. This poster will present maps and results of scenario-based LULC change for the Great Plains.

  14. Modelling the fate of marine debris along a complex shoreline: Lessons from the Great Barrier Reef

    Science.gov (United States)

    Critchell, K.; Grech, A.; Schlaefer, J.; Andutta, F. P.; Lambrechts, J.; Wolanski, E.; Hamann, M.

    2015-12-01

    The accumulation of floating anthropogenic debris in marine and coastal areas has environmental, economic, aesthetic, and human health impacts. Until now, modelling the transport of such debris has largely been restricted to the large-scales of open seas. We used oceanographic modelling to identify potential sites of debris accumulation along a rugged coastline with headlands, islands, rocky coasts and beaches. Our study site was the Great Barrier Reef World Heritage Area that has an emerging problem with debris accumulation. We found that the classical techniques of modelling the transport of floating debris models are only moderately successful due to a number of unknowns or assumptions, such as the value of the wind drift coefficient, the variability of the oceanic forcing and of the wind, the resuspension of some floating debris by waves, and the poorly known relative contribution of floating debris from urban rivers and commercial and recreational shipping. Nevertheless the model was successful in reproducing a number of observations such as the existence of hot spots of accumulation. The orientation of beaches to the prevailing wind direction affected the accumulation rate of debris. The wind drift coefficient and the exact timing of the release of the debris at sea affected little the movement of debris originating from rivers but it affected measurably that of debris originating from ships. It was thus possible to produce local hotspot maps for floating debris, especially those originating from rivers. Such modelling can be used to inform local management decisions, and it also identifies likely priority research areas to more reliably predict the trajectory and landing points of floating debris.

  15. Modelling Growth of Juvenile Crown-of-Thorns Starfish on the Northern Great Barrier Reef

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jennifer Wilmes

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The corallivorous crown-of-thorns starfish (Acanthaster spp. is a major cause of coral mortality on Indo-Pacific reefs. Despite considerable research into the biology of crown-of-thorns starfish, our understanding of the early post-settlement life stage has been hindered by the small size and cryptic nature of recently settled individuals. Most growth rates are derived from either laboratory studies or field studies conducted in Fiji and Japan. The Great Barrier Reef (GBR is currently experiencing its fourth recorded outbreak and population models to inform the progression of outbreaks lack critical growth rates of early life history stages. High numbers of 0+ year juveniles (n = 3532 were measured during extensive surveys of 64 reefs on the northern GBR between May and December 2015. An exponential growth model was fitted to the size measurement data to estimate monthly ranges of growth rates for 0+ year juveniles. Estimated growth rates varied considerably and increased with age (e.g., 0.028–0.041 mm·day−1 for one-month-old juveniles versus 0.108–0.216 mm·day−1 for twelve-month-old juveniles. This pioneering study of 0+ year juveniles on the GBR will inform population models and form the basis for more rigorous ongoing research to understand the fate of newly settled Acanthaster spp.

  16. PENGEMBANGAN MODEL PEMBELAJARAN PRAKARYA DAN KEWIRAUSAHAAN DENGAN PRINSIP THE GREAT YOUNG ENTREPRENEUR DI SMK UNTUK KURIKULUM 2013

    OpenAIRE

    Catarina Wahyu Dyah Purbaningrum; Soenarto Soenarto

    2016-01-01

    Penelitian ini bertujuan: (1) menghasilkan model pembelajaran prakarya dan kewirausahaan  dengan prinsip “The Great Young Entrepreneur” di SMK untuk kurikulum 2013; (2) menghasilkan perangkat pembelajaran prakarya dan kewirausahaan di SMK untuk kurikulum 2013 yang dapat menumbuhkan mental dan motivasi peserta didik untuk berwirausaha; (3) mengetahui tingkat kepraktisan model pembelajaran prakarya dan kewirausahaan dengan prinsip The Great Young Entrepeneur yang telah dikembangkan; dan (4) men...

  17. Satellite remote sensing for modeling and monitoring of water quality in the Great Lakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coffield, S. R.; Crosson, W. L.; Al-Hamdan, M. Z.; Barik, M. G.

    2017-12-01

    Consistent and accurate monitoring of the Great Lakes is critical for protecting the freshwater ecosystems, quantifying the impacts of climate change, understanding harmful algal blooms, and safeguarding public health for the millions who rely on the Lakes for drinking water. While ground-based monitoring is often hampered by limited sampling resolution, satellite data provide surface reflectance measurements at much more complete spatial and temporal scales. In this study, we implemented NASA data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) onboard the Aqua satellite to build robust water quality models. We developed and validated models for chlorophyll-a, nitrogen, phosphorus, and turbidity based on combinations of the six MODIS Ocean Color bands (412, 443, 488, 531, 547, and 667nm) for 2003-2016. Second, we applied these models to quantify trends in water quality through time and in relation to changing land cover, runoff, and climate for six selected coastal areas in Lakes Michigan and Erie. We found strongest models for chlorophyll-a in Lake Huron (R2 = 0.75), nitrogen in Lake Ontario (R2=0.66), phosphorus in Lake Erie (R2=0.60), and turbidity in Lake Erie (R2=0.86). These offer improvements over previous efforts to model chlorophyll-a while adding nitrogen, phosphorus, and turbidity. Mapped water quality parameters showed high spatial variability, with nitrogen concentrated largely in Superior and coastal Michigan and high turbidity, phosphorus, and chlorophyll near urban and agricultural areas of Erie. Temporal analysis also showed concurrence of high runoff or precipitation and nitrogen in Lake Michigan offshore of wetlands, suggesting that water quality in these areas is sensitive to changes in climate.

  18. Block-and-fault dynamics modelling of the Himalayan frontal arc: Implications for seismic cycle, slip deficit, and great earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vorobieva, Inessa; Mandal, Prantik; Gorshkov, Alexander

    2017-10-01

    A numerical block-and-fault dynamics model (BAFD) of the Himalayan frontal arc, India is developed to understand the long-term patterns of strain accumulation and occurrences of great earthquakes in the Himalaya. The morphostructural scheme outlines twelve major crustal blocks, and external driving motions are prescribed using GPS data. The BAFD model reproduces essential features of the geodynamics and seismicity of the Himalayan frontal arc. The locations of the large synthetic earthquakes and their maximum magnitudes are consistent with the information available from the instrumental and historical earthquake catalogues. We model the evolution of the slip deficit and seismic cycles for different sections across the Himalaya frontal arc. The modelled seismic cycles are found to be varying from 700 to 2100 years and are in good agreement with the return periods estimates from the recent paleoseismological studies. We notice that the accumulation of the slip deficit depends not only on the rate of shortening, rheology and structure but also on the dynamics of the confining crustal blocks. Further, we observe that tectonic motions of the Shillong plateau and Assam basin microplates play a significant role in controlling the seismicity patterns of the Bhutan block, which resulted in the decreased seismic activity, and increased rate of aseismic displacement. Thus, we infer that the regional seismicity patterns are a consequence of dynamics of the entire regional fault-and-block system rather than dynamics of individual fault. Our BAFD modelling predicts the maximum earthquake hazard associated with future large/great earthquakes for the central Himalayan gap region, which lies between the 1905 Kangra and the 2015 Gorkha earthquake ruptures, but relatively less hazard in Kashmir and Assam.

  19. High-resolution digital elevation model and historical topographic maps of the Tisza River floodplain, the Great Hungarian Plain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Timár, G.; Mészáros, J.

    2009-04-01

    The Great Hungarian Plain (GHP), the central part of the Pannonian Basin, is one of the world’s most developed flatlands. The relief differences remain under 20 meters in the central area of the plain, especially in the wide floodplain of the Tisza River. After the flood control measurements of the river (1846-1930), newly built dykes cut the wider floodplain from the actual narrow floodway. Common knowledge of the historical inundation patterns has been almost lost. To obtain pieces of information about the possible flood extents, usage of high-resolution elevation models is a valuable option, as well as application of rectified historical topographic maps. The best available elevation model of the GHP is based on the vectorized 1:10,000 scale topographic maps of the Institute of Geodesy, Cartography and Remote Sensing of Hungary (FÃ-MI). The base contour interval is 1 meter but according to the very flat characteristics of the area, halving contours are commonly used. This contour density is definitely needed to get better elevaition models than the one of the SRTM, which shows only the general features of the flatland with remarkable errors at the forests. Historical topographic datasets, such as the ones compiled directly for the water control measures (triangulation: 1833-34; mapping until 1842 by Sámuel Lányi), as well as the First (1783-86) and Second (1857-61) Military Surveys can be rectified easiliy after understanding their geodetic basis. They show in surprising precisity the fine vertical structure of the river terraces and the historical inundation levels. These cartographic elements are of great value also for the necessary re-assessment of the flood control system.

  20. Life history differences between fat and lean morphs of lake charr (Salvelinus namaycush) in Great Slave Lake, Northwest Territories, Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, Michael J.; Nate, Nancy A.; Chavarie, Louise; Muir, Andrew M.; Zimmerman, Mara S.; Krueger, Charles C.

    2016-01-01

    Life history characteristics (size, age, plumpness, buoyancy, survival, growth, and maturity) were compared between fat and lean morphs of lake charr Salvelinus namaycush in Great Slave Lake, Canada, to determine if differences may reflect effects of resource polymorphism. Lake charr were sampled using graded-mesh gill nets set in three depth strata. Of 236 lake charr captured, 122 were a fat morph and 114 were a lean morph. Males and females did not differ from each other in any attributes for either fat or lean morphs. The fat morph averaged 15 mm longer, 481 g heavier, and 4.7 years older than the lean morph. The fat morph averaged 26% heavier and 48% more buoyant at length than the lean morph. Survival of the fat morph was 1.7% higher than that of the lean morph. The fat morph grew at a slower annual rate to a shorter asymptotic length than the lean morph. Fat and lean morphs matured at similar lengths and ages. We concluded that the connection between resource polymorphism and life histories in lean versus fat lake charr suggests that morph-specific restoration objectives may be needed in lakes where lake charr diversity is considered to be a restoration goal.

  1. Regional Climate Models as a Tool for Assessing Changes in the Laurentian Great Lakes Net Basin Supply

    Science.gov (United States)

    Music, B.; Mailhot, E.; Nadeau, D.; Irambona, C.; Frigon, A.

    2017-12-01

    Over the last decades, there has been growing concern about the effects of climate change on the Great Lakes water supply. Most of the modelling studies focusing on the Laurentian Great Lakes do not allow two-way exchanges of water and energy between the atmosphere and the underlying surface, and therefore do not account for important feedback mechanisms. Moreover, energy budget constraint at the land surface is not usually taken into account. To address this issue, several recent climate change studies used high resolution Regional Climate Models (RCMs) for evaluating changes in the hydrological regime of the Great Lakes. As RCMs operate on the concept of water and energy conservation, an internal consistency of the simulated energy and water budget components is assured. In this study we explore several recently generated Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations to investigate the Great Lakes' Net Basin Supply (NBS) in a changing climate. These include simulations of the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5) supplemented by simulations from several others RCMs participating to the North American CORDEX project (CORDEX-NA). The analysis focuses on the NBS extreme values under nonstationary conditions. The results are expected to provide useful information to the industries in the Great Lakes that all need to include accurate climate change information in their long-term strategy plans to better anticipate impacts of low and/or high water levels.

  2. The alteration of proportion of different lizard species compared to each other at The Great Pasture of Hajdubagos

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zsuzsanna ANTAL

    2006-05-01

    Full Text Available Three different lizard species can be found at the great pasture of Hajúbagos. These are the balkan or crimean wall lizard (Podarcis taurica, the sand lizard (Lacerta agilis and the green lizard (Lacerta viridis. All of them are protected by law in Hungary but while sand lizard and green lizard is common all over the country, the amount of the balkan wall lizard is decreasing. The main cause of this regrettable possession is the habitat degradation and thus habitat loss. Namely balkan wall lizard not only prefers but suffers open sand grasslands and these kinds of habitats are disappearing in Hungary. Due to the fact that the extensive animal grazing lost its importance, open sand pastures started to change, succession can be realized. Thus grass closing constantly what is favourable for sand lizard and green lizard. Furthermore sand lizard and balkan wall lizard share roughly the same food source and moreover green lizard could possibly pass into a predator of balkan wall lizard juveniles also. Therefore sand lizard and green lizard became competitors (or predators of balkan wall lizard and the proportion of the three species compared to each other is changing. My aim is to examine the vegetation change and simultaneously monitor the amount of the mentioned three lizard species. After all I would like to make a well established proposal on the management of protected grasslands.

  3. Isolation of different serovars of Salmonella enterica from wild birds in Great Britain between 1995 and 2003.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pennycott, T W; Park, A; Mather, H A

    2006-06-17

    Postmortem examinations were carried out on the carcases of 779 wild birds. Salmonellosis was a common cause of death in greenfinches (Carduelis chloris), house sparrows (Passer domesticus) and chaffinches (Fringilla coelebs), and was also responsible for the deaths of other birds such as goldfinches (Carduelis carduelis), feral pigeons and different species of gulls. Most cases of salmonellosis in finches occurred between January and March, whereas salmonellosis in house sparrows tended to occur between October and March. Salmonella Typhimurium DT40 and DT56 (variant) predominated in finches and sparrows, DT41 and DT195 were the most common strains isolated from gulls, and DT2 and DT99 were recovered from feral pigeons. These "wild bird" strains of Salmonella made up less than 0.5 per cent of the isolates of Salmonella recovered from cattle, sheep, pigs, chickens or turkeys in Great Britain over the same period, but they made up nearly 3 per cent of the isolates from more extensively reared avian livestock such as gamebirds, ducks and geese.

  4. The Production of National Scale Models for Natural Geohazards in Great Britain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Royse, Katherine

    2010-05-01

    Although Great Britain (GB), is untroubled by large-magnitude earthquakes or tsunamis, there is a growing financial and health threat from geohazards affecting both people and property (principally from flooding, shrink-swell clays, landslides, coastal erosion, radon and soluble rocks). This is both in terms of direct costs for remediation and indirectly from higher insurance premiums. For example, the Association of British Insurers reported that the 2007 summer floods cost Britain approximately £3billion; a figure which is predicted to triple every decade due to the increasing value of assets and potential increase in flood occurrence due to environmental change. Remediation from damage caused by shrink-swell clays alone is estimated to cost the insurance industry an average of over £300 million per year an amount that will inevitably increase given current predictions for future climate it is therefore essential that we are able to quantify and strategically assess the occurrence of geohazards in GB as a whole. This will enable us to understand their relationship to critical infrastructure (hospitals, utilities and major transportation routes), industry and major urban centres and provide an understanding of the environmental impacts that an increase in any one of these geohazards might have on, the lives of the British people, for example, flooding and associated landslides can affect the mobilisation of confined contaminants and subsequently the character and use of available land in the future. Since 2002 the British Geological Survey (BGS) has been developing national-scale models of natural geohazards in GB for just this purpose. These include, to date, landslides, shrink-swell, soluble rocks, compressible and collapsible deposits, groundwater flooding, geological indicators of flooding, radon potential, potentially harmful elements in soil, and mining hazards. The models have been created using a combination of expert knowledge (from both within BGS and

  5. Comparing flood loss models of different complexity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schröter, Kai; Kreibich, Heidi; Vogel, Kristin; Riggelsen, Carsten; Scherbaum, Frank; Merz, Bruno

    2013-04-01

    Any deliberation on flood risk requires the consideration of potential flood losses. In particular, reliable flood loss models are needed to evaluate cost-effectiveness of mitigation measures, to assess vulnerability, for comparative risk analysis and financial appraisal during and after floods. In recent years, considerable improvements have been made both concerning the data basis and the methodological approaches used for the development of flood loss models. Despite of that, flood loss models remain an important source of uncertainty. Likewise the temporal and spatial transferability of flood loss models is still limited. This contribution investigates the predictive capability of different flood loss models in a split sample cross regional validation approach. For this purpose, flood loss models of different complexity, i.e. based on different numbers of explaining variables, are learned from a set of damage records that was obtained from a survey after the Elbe flood in 2002. The validation of model predictions is carried out for different flood events in the Elbe and Danube river basins in 2002, 2005 and 2006 for which damage records are available from surveys after the flood events. The models investigated are a stage-damage model, the rule based model FLEMOps+r as well as novel model approaches which are derived using data mining techniques of regression trees and Bayesian networks. The Bayesian network approach to flood loss modelling provides attractive additional information concerning the probability distribution of both model predictions and explaining variables.

  6. Modelling Growth of Juvenile Crown-of-Thorns Starfish on the Northern Great Barrier Reef

    OpenAIRE

    Jennifer Wilmes; Samuel Matthews; Daniel Schultz; Vanessa Messmer; Andrew Hoey; Morgan Pratchett

    2016-01-01

    The corallivorous crown-of-thorns starfish (Acanthaster spp.) is a major cause of coral mortality on Indo-Pacific reefs. Despite considerable research into the biology of crown-of-thorns starfish, our understanding of the early post-settlement life stage has been hindered by the small size and cryptic nature of recently settled individuals. Most growth rates are derived from either laboratory studies or field studies conducted in Fiji and Japan. The Great Barrier Reef (GBR) is currently exper...

  7. Is it Worth Comparing Different Bankruptcy Models?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miroslava Dolejšová

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to compare the performance of small enterprises in the Zlín and Olomouc Regions. These enterprises were assessed using the Altman Z-Score model, the IN05 model, the Zmijewski model and the Springate model. The batch selected for this analysis included 16 enterprises from the Zlín Region and 16 enterprises from the Olomouc Region. Financial statements subjected to the analysis are from 2006 and 2010. The statistical data analysis was performed using the one-sample z-test for proportions and the paired t-test. The outcomes of the evaluation run using the Altman Z-Score model, the IN05 model and the Springate model revealed the enterprises to be financially sound, but the Zmijewski model identified them as being insolvent. The one-sample z-test for proportions confirmed that at least 80% of these enterprises show a sound financial condition. A comparison of all models has emphasized the substantial difference produced by the Zmijewski model. The paired t-test showed that the financial performance of small enterprises had remained the same during the years involved. It is recommended that small enterprises assess their financial performance using two different bankruptcy models. They may wish to combine the Zmijewski model with any bankruptcy model (the Altman Z-Score model, the IN05 model or the Springate model to ensure a proper method of analysis.

  8. Differences in the Effects of the Great Recession on Health Outcomes among Minority Working-Age Adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Towne, Samuel D; Probst, Janice C; Hardin, James W; Bell, Bethany A; Glover, Saundra

    2015-03-01

    We examined the effects of the Great Recession (December 2007-June 2009) among vulnerable adults who may be at high risk of poor health and low access to health care. Our primary outcomes of interest were self-reported health status (fair/poor versus good/very good/excellent), and foregoing needed health care due to cost in the past 12 months. Racial and ethnic minorities, except Asians, experienced higher rates of poor/fair health and higher rates of forgone medical care than did White adults. Hispanic and AIAN adults experienced differential effects of the Great Recession, as compared to White adults. Understanding how vulnerable populations react in times of economic flux will enable policy makers to identify strategies/policies to lessen the burden experienced by vulnerable adults.

  9. Gender and Race/Ethnicity Differences in Mental Health Care Use before and during the Great Recession.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Jie; Dagher, Rada

    2016-04-01

    This study examines the changes in health care utilization for mental health disorders among patients who were diagnosed with depressive and/or anxiety disorders during the Great Recession 2007-2009 in the USA. Negative binomial regressions are used to estimate the association of the economic recession and mental health care use for females and males separately. Results show that prescription drug utilization (e.g., antidepressants, psychotropic medications) increased significantly during the economic recession 2007-2009 for both females and males. Physician visits for mental health disorders decreased during the same period. Results show that racial disparities in mental health care might have increased, while ethnic disparities persisted during the Great Recession. Future research should separately examine mental health care utilization by gender and race/ethnicity.

  10. In vivo and in vitro phenotypic differences between Great Lakes VHSV genotype IVb isolates with sequence types vcG001 and vcG002

    Science.gov (United States)

    Imanse, Sierra M.; Cornwell, Emily R.; Getchell, Rodman G.; Kurath, Gael; Bowser, Paul R.

    2014-01-01

    Viral hemorrhagic septicemia virus (VHSV) is an aquatic rhabdovirus first recognized in farmed rainbow trout in Denmark. In the past decade, a new genotype of this virus, IVb was discovered in the Laurentian Great Lakes basin and has caused several massive die-offs in some of the 28 species of susceptible North American freshwater fishes. Since its colonization of the Great Lakes, several closely related sequence types within genotype IVb have been reported, the two most common of which are vcG001 and vcG002. These sequence types have different spatial distributions in the Great Lakes. The aim of this study was to determine whether the genotypic differences between representative vcG001 (isolate MI03) and vcG002 (isolate 2010-030 #91) isolates correspond to phenotypic differences in terms of virulence using both in vitro and in vivo approaches. In vitro infection of epithelioma papulosum cyprini (EPC), bluegill fry (BF-2), and Chinook salmon embryo (CHSE) cells demonstrated some differences in onset and rate of growth in EPC and BF-2 cells, without any difference in the quantity of RNA produced. In vivo infection of round gobies (Neogobius melanostomus) via immersion exposure to different concentrations of vcG001 or vcG002 caused a significantly greater mortality in round gobies exposed to 102 plaque forming units ml− 1 of vcG001. These experiments suggest that there are phenotypic differences between Great Lakes isolates of VHSV genotype IVb.

  11. Two-column sequential injection chromatography for fast isocratic separation of two analytes of greatly differing chemical properties.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Šatínský, Dalibor; Chocholouš, Petr; Válová, Olga; Hanusová, Lucia; Solich, Petr

    2013-09-30

    This paper deals with a novel approach to separate two analytes with different chemical properties and different lipophilicity. The newly described methodology is based on the two column system that was used for isocratic separation of two analytes with very different lipophilicity-dexamethasone and cinchocaine. Simultaneous separation of model compounds cinchocaine and dexamethasone was carried under the following conditions in two-column sequential injection chromatography system (2-C SIC). A 25×4.6 mm C-18 monolithic column was used in the first dimension for retention and separation of dexamethasone with mobile phase acetonitrile:water 30:70 (v/v), flow rate 0.9 mL min(-1) and consumption of 1.7 mL. A 10×4.6 mm C-18 monolithic column with 5×4.6 mm C-18 precolumn was used in the second dimension for retention and separation of cinchocaine using mobile phase acetonitrile:water 60:40 (v/v), flow rate 0.9 mL min(-1) and consumption 1.5 mL. Whole analysis time including both mobile phase's aspirations and both column separations was performed in less than 4 min. The method was fully validated and used for determination of cinchocaine and dexamethasone in pharmaceutical otic drops. The developed 2-C SIC method was compared with HPLC method under the isocratic conditions of separation on monolithic column (25×4.6 mm C-18). Spectrophotometric detection of both compounds was performed at wavelength 240 nm. System repeatability and method precision were found in the range (0.39-3.12%) for both compounds. Linearity of determination was evaluated in the range 50-500 μg mL(-1) and coefficients of determination were found to be r(2)=0.99912 for dexamethasone and r(2)=0.99969 for cinchocaine. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  12. OSGM02: A new model for converting GPS-derived heights to local height datums in Great Britain and Ireland

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Iliffe, J.C.; Ziebart, M.; Cross, P.A.

    2003-01-01

    The background to the recent computation of a new vertical datum model for the British Isles (OSGM02) is described After giving a brief description of the computational techniques and the data sets used for the derivation of the gravimetric geoid, the paper focuses on the fitting of this surface ...... procedure. Results for each major region (Great Britain, Ireland, and Northern Ireland) as well as the various independent island datums are described The problems to be expected when working between datums are discussed....

  13. Elucidating causes of Diporeia decline in the Great Lakes via metabolomics: physiological responses after exposure to different stressors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maity, Suman; Jannasch, Amber; Adamec, Jiri; Watkins, James M; Nalepa, Thomas; Höök, Tomas O; Sepúlveda, Maria S

    2013-01-01

    The benthic macroinvertebrate Diporeia spp. have been extirpated from many areas of the Laurentian Great Lakes, but the mechanisms underlying such declines are not fully understood. Diporeia declines coinciding with the invasion of exotic dreissenid mussels (zebra and quagga) have led to the hypothesis that Diporeia declines are a result of decreased food availability from increasing competition with dreissenids for diatoms. There is additional evidence that Diporeia are negatively affected when in close proximity to dreissenids, probably because of exposure to toxins present in the mussels' pseudofeces. Diporeia are also known to be sensitive to anthropogenic contaminants (such as polychlorinated biphenyls [PCBs]) present in Great Lakes sediments. To better understand the physiological responses of Diporeia to diverse stressors, we conducted three 28-d experiments evaluating changes in the metabolomes of Diporeia (1) fed diatoms (Cyclotella meneghiniana) versus starved, (2) exposed (from Lake Michigan and Cayuga Lake) to quagga mussels (Dreissena bugensis), and (3) exposed to sediments contaminated with PCBs. The metabolomes of samples were examined using both two-dimensional gas and liquid chromatography coupled with mass spectrometry. Each stressor elicited a unique metabolome response characterized by enhanced citric acid cycle, fatty acid biosynthesis, and protein metabolism in diatom-fed Diporeia; impaired glycolysis, protein catabolism, and folate metabolism in Diporeia from Lake Michigan irrespective of quagga mussel exposure, suggesting lake-specific adaptation mechanisms; and altered cysteine and phospholipid metabolism during PCB exposure. Subsequent comparisons of these stressor-specific metabolic responses with metabolomes of a feral Diporeia population would help identify stressors affecting Diporeia populations throughout the Great Lakes.

  14. Summer hot snaps and winter conditions: modelling white syndrome outbreaks on Great Barrier Reef corals.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Scott F Heron

    Full Text Available Coral reefs are under increasing pressure in a changing climate, one such threat being more frequent and destructive outbreaks of coral diseases. Thermal stress from rising temperatures has been implicated as a causal factor in disease outbreaks observed on the Great Barrier Reef, Australia, and elsewhere in the world. Here, we examine seasonal effects of satellite-derived temperature on the abundance of coral diseases known as white syndromes on the Great Barrier Reef, considering both warm stress during summer and deviations from mean temperatures during the preceding winter. We found a high correlation (r(2 = 0.953 between summer warm thermal anomalies (Hot Snap and disease abundance during outbreak events. Inclusion of thermal conditions during the preceding winter revealed that a significant reduction in disease outbreaks occurred following especially cold winters (Cold Snap, potentially related to a reduction in pathogen loading. Furthermore, mild winters (i.e., neither excessively cool nor warm frequently preceded disease outbreaks. In contrast, disease outbreaks did not typically occur following warm winters, potentially because of increased disease resistance of the coral host. Understanding the balance between the effects of warm and cold winters on disease outbreak will be important in a warming climate. Combining the influence of winter and summer thermal effects resulted in an algorithm that yields both a Seasonal Outlook of disease risk at the conclusion of winter and near real-time monitoring of Outbreak Risk during summer. This satellite-derived system can provide coral reef managers with an assessment of risk three-to-six months in advance of the summer season that can then be refined using near-real-time summer observations. This system can enhance the capacity of managers to prepare for and respond to possible disease outbreaks and focus research efforts to increase understanding of environmental impacts on coral disease in

  15. Comparison of two different modelling tools

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brix, Wiebke; Elmegaard, Brian

    2009-01-01

    In this paper a test case is solved using two different modelling tools, Engineering Equation Solver (EES) and WinDali, in order to compare the tools. The system of equations solved, is a static model of an evaporator used for refrigeration. The evaporator consists of two parallel channels, and i...

  16. Model-based scenario planning to inform climate change adaptation in the Northern Great Plains—Final report

    Science.gov (United States)

    Symstad, Amy J.; Miller, Brian W.; Friedman, Jonathan M.; Fisichelli, Nicholas A.; Ray, Andrea J.; Rowland, Erika; Schuurman, Gregor W.

    2017-12-18

    Public SummaryWe worked with managers in two focal areas to plan for the uncertain future by integrating quantitative climate change scenarios and simulation modeling into scenario planning exercises.In our central North Dakota focal area, centered on Knife River Indian Villages National Historic Site, managers are concerned about how changes in flood severity and growing conditions for native and invasive plants may affect archaeological resources and cultural landscapes associated with the Knife and Missouri Rivers. Climate projections and hydrological modeling based on those projections indicate plausible changes in spring and summer soil moisture ranging from a 7 percent decrease to a 13 percent increase and maximum winter snowpack (important for spring flooding) changes ranging from a 13 percent decrease to a 47 percent increase. Facilitated discussions among managers and scientists exploring the implications of these different climate scenarios for resource management revealed potential conflicts between protecting archeological sites and fostering riparian cottonwood forests. The discussions also indicated the need to prioritize archeological sites for excavation or protection and culturally important plant species for intensive management attention.In our southwestern South Dakota focal area, centered on Badlands National Park, managers are concerned about how changing climate will affect vegetation production, wildlife populations, and erosion of fossils, archeological artifacts, and roads. Climate scenarios explored by managers and scientists in this focal area ranged from a 13 percent decrease to a 33 percent increase in spring precipitation, which is critical to plant growth in the northern Great Plains region, and a slight decrease to a near doubling of intense rain events. Facilitated discussions in this focal area concluded that greater effort should be put into preparing for emergency protection, excavation, and preservation of exposed fossils or

  17. Regional CO2 and latent heat surface fluxes in the Southern Great Plains: Measurements, modeling, and scaling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Riley, W. J.; Biraud, S.C.; Torn, M.S.; Fischer, M.L.; Billesbach, D.P.; Berry, J.A.

    2009-08-15

    Characterizing net ecosystem exchanges (NEE) of CO{sub 2} and sensible and latent heat fluxes in heterogeneous landscapes is difficult, yet critical given expected changes in climate and land use. We report here a measurement and modeling study designed to improve our understanding of surface to atmosphere gas exchanges under very heterogeneous land cover in the mostly agricultural U.S. Southern Great Plains (SGP). We combined three years of site-level, eddy covariance measurements in several of the dominant land cover types with regional-scale climate data from the distributed Mesonet stations and Next Generation Weather Radar precipitation measurements to calibrate a land surface model of trace gas and energy exchanges (isotope-enabled land surface model (ISOLSM)). Yearly variations in vegetation cover distributions were estimated from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer normalized difference vegetation index and compared to regional and subregional vegetation cover type estimates from the U.S. Department of Agriculture census. We first applied ISOLSM at a 250 m spatial scale to account for vegetation cover type and leaf area variations that occur on hundred meter scales. Because of computational constraints, we developed a subsampling scheme within 10 km 'macrocells' to perform these high-resolution simulations. We estimate that the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Climate Research Facility SGP region net CO{sub 2} exchange with the local atmosphere was -240, -340, and -270 gC m{sup -2} yr{sup -1} (positive toward the atmosphere) in 2003, 2004, and 2005, respectively, with large seasonal variations. We also performed simulations using two scaling approaches at resolutions of 10, 30, 60, and 90 km. The scaling approach applied in current land surface models led to regional NEE biases of up to 50 and 20% in weekly and annual estimates, respectively. An important factor in causing these biases was the complex leaf area index (LAI) distribution

  18. Great Apes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sleeman, Jonathan M.; Cerveny, Shannon

    2014-01-01

    Anesthesia of great apes is often necessary to conduct diagnostic analysis, provide therapeutics, facilitate surgical procedures, and enable transport and translocation for conservation purposes. Due to the stress of remote delivery injection of anesthetic agents, recent studies have focused on oral delivery and/or transmucosal absorption of preanesthetic and anesthetic agents. Maintenance of the airway and provision of oxygen is an important aspect of anesthesia in great ape species. The provision of analgesia is an important aspect of the anesthesia protocol for any procedure involving painful stimuli. Opioids and nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) are often administered alone, or in combination to provide multi-modal analgesia. There is increasing conservation management of in situ great ape populations, which has resulted in the development of field anesthesia techniques for free-living great apes for the purposes of translocation, reintroduction into the wild, and clinical interventions.

  19. [Long-term effects of different management strategies on Larix gmelinii forests in Great Hing' an Mountains after the catastrophic fire in 1987].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xu-gao; Li, Xiu-zhen; He, Hong-shi

    2008-04-01

    In this paper, LANDIS model was used to study the effects of different management strategies on the larch (Larix gmelinii) forests of Tuqiang Forest Bureau on the northern slopes of Great Hing' an Mountains after the catastrophic fire in 1987. Three management strategies, i. e., natural regeneration if the catastrophic fire in 1987 was not happened (M1), natural regeneration after the catastrophic fire in 1987 (M2), and current management strategy after the catastrophic fire in 1987 (M3), were compared over a 300-year period. The results showed that the abundance of larch forests over 300 simulation years under the three management strategies had significant difference. In the whole Bureau, the abundance of larch forests under M2 was obviously lower than that under M1 and M3 over 300 years, and the abundance under M3 was lower than that under M1 at the beginning. Due to the reforestation after the catastrophic fire in 1987, the abundance of larch under M3 increased rapidly, and caught up with that under M1 after about 100 years. In addition, different forest management strategies also had significant influence on the age structure of larch forests, especially for mature and over-matured larch forests. The abundance of mature and over-matured larch forests under M1 was higher than that under M2. This abundance under M3 had tremendous decrease because of forest harvesting for about 10 years, and then, increased with time and would exceed that under M1 and M2 for over 100 years. Furthermore, in unburned areas and burned areas, the abundance of mature and over-matured larch forests also had significant difference over 300 simulation years under the three management strategies.

  20. Grassland and cropland net ecosystem production of the U.S. Great Plains: Regression tree model development and comparative analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wylie, Bruce K.; Howard, Daniel; Dahal, Devendra; Gilmanov, Tagir; Ji, Lei; Zhang, Li; Smith, Kelcy

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents the methodology and results of two ecological-based net ecosystem production (NEP) regression tree models capable of up scaling measurements made at various flux tower sites throughout the U.S. Great Plains. Separate grassland and cropland NEP regression tree models were trained using various remote sensing data and other biogeophysical data, along with 15 flux towers contributing to the grassland model and 15 flux towers for the cropland model. The models yielded weekly mean daily grassland and cropland NEP maps of the U.S. Great Plains at 250 m resolution for 2000–2008. The grassland and cropland NEP maps were spatially summarized and statistically compared. The results of this study indicate that grassland and cropland ecosystems generally performed as weak net carbon (C) sinks, absorbing more C from the atmosphere than they released from 2000 to 2008. Grasslands demonstrated higher carbon sink potential (139 g C·m−2·year−1) than non-irrigated croplands. A closer look into the weekly time series reveals the C fluctuation through time and space for each land cover type.

  1. Resource Allocation Model for Great Plains Regional Medical Command: Volume 1

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Wojcik, Barbara E; Humphrey, Rebecca J; Oakley, Carolyn L; Morrison, Scott C; Devore , Jr., Raymond B; Hassell, Harrison L

    2005-01-01

    ... relationship to treatment facility, beneficiary category, patient's age, and gender. The components of the model are based on patient-level data and use historical data for fiscal years 2001, 2002, and 2003...

  2. Comparing photo modeling methodologies and techniques: the instance of the Great Temple of Abu Simbel

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergio Di Tondo

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available After fifty years from the Salvage of the Abu Simbel Temples it has been possible to experiment the contemporary photo-modeling tools beginning from the original data of the photogrammetrical survey carried out in the 1950s. This produced a reflection on “Image Based” methods and modeling techniques, comparing strict 3d digital photogrammetry with the latest Structure From Motion (SFM systems. The topographic survey data, the original photogrammetric stereo couples, the points coordinates and their representation in contour lines, allowed to obtain a model of the monument in his configuration before the moving of the temples. The impossibility to carry out a direct survey led to touristic shots to create SFM models to use for geometric comparisons.

  3. Dynamical Downscaling of Global Circulation Models With the Weather Research and Forecast Model in the Northern Great Plains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burtch, D.; Mullendore, G. L.; Kennedy, A. D.; Simms, M.; Kirilenko, A.; Coburn, J.

    2015-12-01

    Understanding the impacts of global climate change on regional scales is crucial for accurate decision-making by state and local governments. This is especially true in North Dakota, where climate change can have significant consequences on agriculture, its traditionally strongest economic sector. This region of the country shows a high variability in precipitation, especially in the summer months and so the focus of this study is on warm season processes over decadal time scales. The Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model is used to dynamically downscale two Global Circulation Models (GCMs) from the CMIP5 ensemble in order to determine the microphysical parameterization and nudging techniques (spectral or analysis) best suited for this region. The downscaled domain includes the entirety of North Dakota at a horizontal resolution of 5 km. In addition, smaller domains of 1 km horizontal resolution are centered over regions of focused hydrological importance. The dynamically downscaled simulations are compared with both gridded observational data and statistically downscaled data to evaluate the performance of the simulations. Preliminary results have shown a marked difference between the two downscaled GCMs in terms of temperature and precipitation bias. Choice of microphysical parameterization has not shown to create any significant differences in the temperature fields. However, the precipitation fields do appear to be most affected by the microphysical parameterization, regardless of the choice of GCM. Implications on the unique water resource challenges faced in this region will also be discussed.

  4. Cyberinfrastructure for remote environmental observatories: a model homogeneous sensor network in the Great Basin, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strachan, Scotty; Slater, David; Fritzinger, Eric; Lyles, Bradley; Kent, Graham; Smith, Kenneth; Dascalu, Sergiu; Harris, Frederick

    2017-04-01

    Sensor-based data collection has changed the potential scale and resolution of in-situ environmental studies by orders of magnitude, increasing expertise and management requirements accordingly. Cost-effective management of these observing systems is possible by leveraging cyberinfrastructure resources. Presented is a case study environmental observation network in the Great Basin region, USA, the Nevada Climate-ecohydrological Assessment Network (NevCAN). NevCAN stretches hundreds of kilometers across several mountain ranges and monitors climate and ecohydrological conditions from low desert (900 m ASL) to high subalpine treeline (3360 m ASL) down to 1-minute timescales. The network has been operating continuously since 2010, collecting billions of sensor data points and millions of camera images that record hourly conditions at each site, despite requiring relatively low annual maintenance expenditure. These data have provided unique insight into fine-scale processes across mountain gradients, which is crucial scientific information for a water-scarce region. The key to maintaining data continuity for these remotely-located study sites has been use of uniform data transport and management systems, coupled with high-reliability power system designs. Enabling non-proprietary digital communication paths to all study sites and sensors allows the research team to acquire data in near-real-time, troubleshoot problems, and diversify sensor hardware. A wide-area network design based on common Internet Protocols (IP) has been extended into each study site, providing production bandwidth of between 2 Mbps and 60 Mbps, depending on local conditions. The network architecture and site-level support systems (such as power generation) have been implemented with the core objectives of capacity, redundancy, and modularity. NevCAN demonstrates that by following simple but uniform "best practices", the next generation of regionally-specific environmental observatories can evolve to

  5. Making Culverts Great Again: Modeling Road Culvert Vulnerability to Assist Prioritization of Local Infrastructure Investment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gold, D.; Walter, M. T.; Watkins, L.; Kaufman, Z.; Meyer, A.; Mahaney, M.

    2016-12-01

    The concurrent threats posed by climate change and aging infrastructure have become of increasing concern in recent years. In the Northeastern US, storms such as Hurricane Irene and Super Storm Sandy have highlighted the vulnerability of infrastructure to extreme weather events, which are projected to become more frequent under future climate change scenarios. Road culverts are one type of infrastructure that is particularly vulnerable to such threats. Culverts allow roads to safely traverse small streams or drainage ditches, and their proper design is critical to ensuring a safe and reliable transportation network. Much of the responsibility for designing and maintaining road culverts lies at the local level, but many local governments lack the resources to quantify the vulnerability of their culverts to major storms. This study contributes a model designed to assist local governments in rapidly assessing the vulnerability of large numbers of culverts and identifies common characteristics of vulnerable culverts. Model inputs include culvert geometry and location data collected by trained local field teams. The model uses custom tools created in ArcGIS and Python to determine the maximum return period storm that each culvert can safely convey under current and projected future rainfall regimes. As a demonstration, over 1000 culverts in New York State were modeled. It was found that a significant percentage of modeled culverts failed to convey the current 5 year return period storm event (deemed a failure) and this percentage increased under projected future rainfall conditions. The model results were analyzed to determine correlations between culvert characteristics and failure. Characteristics investigated included watershed size, road type (state, county or local), affluence of the surrounding area and suitability for aquatic organism passage. Results from this study can be used by local governments to quantify and characterize the vulnerability of current

  6. Observation of thermal plumes from submerged discharges in the Great Lakes and their implications for modeling and monitoring

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ditmars, J.D.; Paddock, R.A.; Frigo, A.A.

    1977-01-01

    Measurements of thermal plumes from submerged discharges of power plant cooling waters into the Great Lakes provide the opportunity to view the mixing processes at prototype scales and to observe the effects of the ambient environment on those processes. Examples of thermal plume behavior in Great Lakes' ambient environments are presented to demonstrate the importance of measurements of the detailed structure of the ambient environment, as well as of the plumes, for interpretation of prototype data for modeling and monitoring purposes. The examples are drawn from studies by Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) at the Zion Nuclear PowerStation and the D. C. Cook Nuclear Plant on Lake Michigan and at the J. A. FitzPatrick Nuclear Power Plant on Lake Ontario. These studies included measurements of water temperatures from a moving boat which provide a quasi-synoptic view of the three-dimensional temperature structure of the thermal plume and ambient water environment. Additional measurements of water velocities, which are made with continuously recording, moored, and profiling current meters, and of wind provide data on the detailed structure of the ambient environment. The detailed structure of the ambient environment, in terms of current, current shear, variable winds, and temperature stratification, often influence greatly thermal plume behavior. Although predictive model techniques and monitoring objectives often ignore the detailed aspects of the ambient environment, useful interpretation of prototype data for model evaluation or calibration and monitoring purposes requires detailed measurement of the ambient environment. Examination of prototype thermal plume data indicates that, in several instances, attention to only the gross characteristics of the ambient environment can be misleading and could result in significant errors in model calibration and extrapolation of data bases gathered in monitoring observations

  7. Great software debates

    CERN Document Server

    Davis, A

    2004-01-01

    The industry’s most outspoken and insightful critic explains how the software industry REALLY works. In Great Software Debates, Al Davis, shares what he has learned about the difference between the theory and the realities of business and encourages you to question and think about software engineering in ways that will help you succeed where others fail. In short, provocative essays, Davis fearlessly reveals the truth about process improvement, productivity, software quality, metrics, agile development, requirements documentation, modeling, software marketing and sales, empiricism, start-up financing, software research, requirements triage, software estimation, and entrepreneurship.

  8. The Lancet Countdown on health benefits from the UK Climate Change Act: a modelling study for Great Britain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Martin L; Lott, Melissa C; Kitwiroon, Nutthida; Dajnak, David; Walton, Heather; Holland, Mike; Pye, Steve; Fecht, Daniela; Toledano, Mireille B; Beevers, Sean D

    2018-05-01

    Climate change poses a dangerous and immediate threat to the health of populations in the UK and worldwide. We aimed to model different scenarios to assess the health co-benefits that result from mitigation actions. In this modelling study, we combined a detailed techno-economic energy systems model (UK TIMES), air pollutant emission inventories, a sophisticated air pollution model (Community Multi-scale Air Quality), and previously published associations between concentrations and health outcomes. We used four scenarios and focused on the air pollution implications from fine particulate matter (PM 2·5 ), nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) and ozone. The four scenarios were baseline, which assumed no further climate actions beyond those already achieved and did not meet the UK's Climate Change Act (at least an 80% reduction in carbon dioxide equivalent emissions by 2050 compared with 1990) target; nuclear power, which met the Climate Change Act target with a limited increase in nuclear power; low-greenhouse gas, which met the Climate Change Act target without any policy constraint on nuclear build; and a constant scenario that held 2011 air pollutant concentrations constant until 2050. We predicted the health and economic impacts from air pollution for the scenarios until 2050, and the inequalities in exposure across different socioeconomic groups. NO 2 concentrations declined leading to 4 892 000 life-years saved for the nuclear power scenario and 7 178 000 life-years saved for the low-greenhouse gas scenario from 2011 to 2154. However, the associations that we used might overestimate the effects of NO 2 itself. PM 2·5 concentrations in Great Britain are predicted to decrease between 42% and 44% by 2050 compared with 2011 in the scenarios that met the Climate Change Act targets, especially those from road traffic and off-road machinery. These reductions in PM 2·5 are tempered by a 2035 peak (and subsequent decline) in biomass (wood burning), and by a large

  9. Child Poverty During the Years of the Great Recession: An Analysis of Racial Differences Among Immigrants and US Natives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, Kevin J A; Tucker, Catherine

    2015-12-01

    Although the consequences of the Great Recession are extensively discussed in previous research, three critical issue need to be addressed in order to develop a full portrait of the economic experiences of children during this period. First, given the changing immigrant composition of the US child population, new studies are needed for examining the implications of immigrant status for exposure to child poverty during the recession. Second, it is important to understand how traditional patterns of racial inequality among were transformed during the years of the recession. Finally, it is not clear whether recession-related changes in socioeconomic inequalities continued to have implications for child well-being in the post-recession period. Results from this analysis indicate that the adverse effects of the recession were most intense in states with significant changes in their populations of Black and Latino immigrant children. The results further show that declines in parental work opportunities were more consequential for poverty among Whites and Asians. The analysis also finds differential implications of family contexts for child poverty among Black immigrant and natives during the recession. Finally, the results indicate that increases in racial child poverty disparities during the recession did not disappear in the years following the downturn.

  10. Modeling heat stress under different environmental conditions

    OpenAIRE

    Carabano, Maria-Jesus; Logar, Betka; Bormann, Jeanne; Minet, Julien; Vanrobays, ML; Diaz, Clara; Tychon, Bernard; Gengler, Nicolas; Hammami, Hedi

    2016-01-01

    Renewed interest in heat stress effects on livestock productivity derives from climate change, which is expected to increase temperatures and the frequency of extreme weather events. This study aimed at evaluating the effect of temperature and humidity on milk production in highly selected dairy cattle populations across three European regions differing in climate and production systems to detect differences and similarities that can be used to optimize heat stress (HS) effect modeling. Mi...

  11. A model for crustal deformations associated with the 1914 great eruption of Sakurajima volcano, Kagoshima, Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hashimoto, M.; Tada, T.

    1992-05-01

    Sakurajima volcano, which is located on the southern rim of the Aira caldera, Kagoshima, is one of the most active volcanoes in Japan. The 1914 eruption of Sakurajima volcano was accompanied by an intensive fissure eruption and caused significant crustal deformations. The north side of the newly formed fissure craters, which are arranged in the WNW-ESE direction, moved toward the north by about 5 m, and the south side moved toward the south by 3 m. Furthermore, the ground surface around the Aira caldera was concentrically depressed by 80 cm. In order to explain these significant crustal deformations, a model consisting of a tensile fault and a deflation source is presented. By means of the least-squares fitting of the model to leveling data around the Aira caldera, we obtained the parameters of the deflation source as follows: depth 8.8 ± 1.2 km; subsidence just above the source 157 ± 27 cm. The source is located at the center of the Aira caldera. On the other hand, the tensile fault, which corresponds to the fissure craters, is estimated, on the basis of horizontal movements in Sakurajima, to be 7 km long, 1.5 km wide and 0.5 km deep at its upper margin, with an opening of 20 m. This model suggests that magma flowed out of the reservoir beneath the Aira caldera and broke the crust of Sakurajima, thus creating fissure.

  12. Emergence and early survival of early versus late seral species in Great Basin restoration in two different soil types

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shauna M. Uselman; Keirith A. Snyder; Elizabeth A. Leger; Sara E. Duke

    2015-01-01

    Comparing emergence and survival probabilities, early seral natives generally outperformed late seral natives when growing with exotics and had earlier emergence timing, although results differed among functional groups and soil types. In contrast, survival probabilities did not differ between the early and late seral mixes when growing without exotics. Within each...

  13. A Paddock to reef monitoring and modelling framework for the Great Barrier Reef: Paddock and catchment component.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carroll, Chris; Waters, David; Vardy, Suzanne; Silburn, David M; Attard, Steve; Thorburn, Peter J; Davis, Aaron M; Halpin, Neil; Schmidt, Michael; Wilson, Bruce; Clark, Andrew

    2012-01-01

    Targets for improvements in water quality entering the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) have been set through the Reef Water Quality Protection Plan (Reef Plan). To measure and report on progress towards the targets set a program has been established that combines monitoring and modelling at paddock through to catchment and reef scales; the Paddock to Reef Integrated Monitoring, Modelling and Reporting Program (Paddock to Reef Program). This program aims to provide evidence of links between land management activities, water quality and reef health. Five lines of evidence are used: the effectiveness of management practices to improve water quality; the prevalence of management practice adoption and change in catchment indicators; long-term monitoring of catchment water quality; paddock & catchment modelling to provide a relative assessment of progress towards meeting targets; and finally marine monitoring of GBR water quality and reef ecosystem health. This paper outlines the first four lines of evidence. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Tides and lake-level variations in the great Patagonian lakes: Observations, modelling and geophysical implications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marderwald, Eric; Richter, Andreas; Horwath, Martin; Hormaechea, Jose Luis; Groh, Andreas

    2016-04-01

    In Patagonia, the glacial-isostatic adjustment (GIA) to past ice-mass changes (Ivins & James 2004; Klemann et al. 2007) is of particular interest in the context of the determination of the complex regional rheology related to plate subduction in a triple-junction constellation. To further complicate the situation, GIA is overlaid with load deformation not only due to present ice mass changes but also due to water-level changes in the lakes surrounding the icefields and the ocean surrounding Patagonia. These elastic deformations affect the determination of glacial-isostatic uplift rates from GPS observations (Dietrich et al. 2010; Lange et al. 2014). Observations of lake tides and their comparison with the theoretical tidal signal have been used previously to validate predictions of ocean tidal loading and have revealed regional deviations from conventional global elastic earth models (Richter et al. 2009). In this work we investigate the tides and lake-level variations in Lago Argentino, Lago Viedma, Lago San Martín/O'Higgins and Lago Buenos Aires/General Carrera. This allows us to test, among other things, the validity of tidal loading models. We present pressure tide-gauge records from two sites in Lago Argentino extending over 2.5 years (Richter et al. 2015). These observations are complemented by lake-level records provided by the Argentine National Hydrometeorological Network. Based on these lake-level time series the principal processes affecting the lake level are identified and quantified. Lake-level changes reflecting variations in lake volume are dominated by a seasonal cycle exceeding 1 m in amplitude. Lake-volume changes occur in addition with a daily period in response to melt water influx from surrounding glaciers. In Lago Argentino sporadic lake-volume jumps are caused by bursting of the ice dam of Perito Moreno glacier. Water movements in these lakes are dominated by surface seiches reaching 20 cm in amplitude. A harmonic tidal analysis of the lake

  15. THE GREAT OXIDATION OF EARTH'S ATMOSPHERE: CONTESTING THE YOYO MODEL VIA TRANSITION STABILITY ANALYSIS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cuntz, M.; Roy, D.; Musielak, Z. E.

    2009-01-01

    A significant controversy regarding the climate history of the Earth and its relationship to the development of complex life forms concerns the rise of oxygen in the early Earth's atmosphere. Geological records show that this rise occurred about 2.4 Gyr ago, when the atmospheric oxygen increased from less than 10 -5 present atmospheric level (PAL) to more than 0.01 PAL and possibly above 0.1 PAL. However, there is a debate whether this rise happened relatively smoothly or with well-pronounced ups and downs (the Yoyo model). In our study, we explore a simplified atmospheric chemical system consisting of oxygen, methane, and carbon that is driven by the sudden decline of the net input of reductants to the surface as previously considered by Goldblatt et al. Based on the transition stability analysis for the system equations, constituting a set of non-autonomous and non-linear differential equations, as well as the inspection of the Lyapunov exponents, it is found that the equations do not exhibit chaotic behavior. In addition, the rise of oxygen occurs relative smoothly, possibly with minor bumps (within a factor of 1.2), but without major jumps. This result clearly argues against the Yoyo model in agreement with recent geological findings.

  16. Great Expectations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dickens, Charles

    2005-01-01

    One of Dickens's most renowned and enjoyable novels, Great Expectations tells the story of Pip, an orphan boy who wishes to transcend his humble origins and finds himself unexpectedly given the opportunity to live a life of wealth and respectability. Over the course of the tale, in which Pip

  17. Different Epidemic Models on Complex Networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Haifeng; Small, Michael; Fu Xinchu

    2009-01-01

    Models for diseases spreading are not just limited to SIS or SIR. For instance, for the spreading of AIDS/HIV, the susceptible individuals can be classified into different cases according to their immunity, and similarly, the infected individuals can be sorted into different classes according to their infectivity. Moreover, some diseases may develop through several stages. Many authors have shown that the individuals' relation can be viewed as a complex network. So in this paper, in order to better explain the dynamical behavior of epidemics, we consider different epidemic models on complex networks, and obtain the epidemic threshold for each case. Finally, we present numerical simulations for each case to verify our results.

  18. Use of the GREAT-ER model to estimate mass fluxes of chemicals, carried into the Western Scheldt estuary from the Rupel basin

    OpenAIRE

    Schowanek, D.

    2002-01-01

    The poster illustrates the application of the GREAT-ER model to estimate the mass flux of chemicals carried from a river basin into an estuary. GREAT-ER (Geo-referenced Regional Exposure Assessment Tool for European Rivers) is a newly developed model (1999) for management and risk assessment of chemicals in river basins (see www.great-er.org). Recently the Rupel basin has been made available for use within GREAT-ER. This now allows to make a reliable estimation of the contribution of pollu...

  19. Great Comets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burnham, Robert

    2000-05-01

    Spectacular and mysterious objects that come and go in the night sky, comets have dwelt in our popular culture for untold ages. As remnants from the formation of the Solar system, they are objects of key scientific research and space missions. As one of nature's most potent and dramatic dangers, they pose a threat to our safety--and yet they were the origin of our oceans and perhaps even life itself. This beautifully illustrated book tells the story of the biggest and most awe-inspiring of all comets: those that have earned the title "Great." Robert Burnham focuses on the Great comets Hyakutake in 1996 and Hale-Bopp in 1997, which gripped attention worldwide because, for many, they were the first comets ever seen. He places these two recent comets in the context of their predecessors from past ages, among them the famous Comet Halley. Great Comets explains the exciting new discoveries that have come from these magnificent objects and profiles the spaceprobes to comets due for launch in the next few years. The book even takes a peek behind Hollywood's science-fiction fantasies to assess the real risks humanity faces from potential impacts of both comets and asteroids. For everyone interested in astronomy, this exciting book reveals the secrets of the Great Comets and provides essential tools for keeping up to date with comet discoveries in the future. Robert Burnham has been an amateur astronomer since the mid-1950s. He has been a senior editor of Astronomy magazine (1986-88) and is the author of many books and CD-ROMS, including Comet Hale-Bopp: Find and Enjoy the Great Comet and Comet Explorer.

  20. Laurentian Great Lakes Phytoplankton and Their Water Quality Characteristics, Including a Diatom-Based Model for Paleoreconstruction of Phosphorus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reavie, Euan D.; Heathcote, Adam J.; Shaw Chraïbi, Victoria L.

    2014-01-01

    Recent shifts in water quality and food web characteristics driven by anthropogenic impacts on the Laurentian Great Lakes warranted an examination of pelagic primary producers as tracers of environmental change. The distributions of the 263 common phytoplankton taxa were related to water quality variables to determine taxon-specific responses that may be useful in indicator models. A detailed checklist of taxa and their environmental optima are provided. Multivariate analyses indicated a strong relationship between total phosphorus (TP) and patterns in the diatom assemblages across the Great Lakes. Of the 118 common diatom taxa, 90 (76%) had a directional response along the TP gradient. We further evaluated a diatom-based transfer function for TP based on the weighted-average abundance of taxa, assuming unimodal distributions along the TP gradient. The r2 between observed and inferred TP in the training dataset was 0.79. Substantial spatial and environmental autocorrelation within the training set of samples justified the need for further model validation. A randomization procedure indicated that the actual transfer function consistently performed better than functions based on reshuffled environmental data. Further, TP was minimally confounded by other environmental variables, as indicated by the relatively large amount of unique variance in the diatoms explained by TP. We demonstrated the effectiveness of the transfer function by hindcasting TP concentrations using fossil diatom assemblages in a Lake Superior sediment core. Passive, multivariate analysis of the fossil samples against the training set indicated that phosphorus was a strong determinant of historical diatom assemblages, verifying that the transfer function was suited to reconstruct past TP in Lake Superior. Collectively, these results showed that phytoplankton coefficients for water quality can be robust indicators of Great Lakes pelagic condition. The diatom-based transfer function can be used in

  1. Why Do Different Drought Indices Show Distinct Future Drought Risk Outcomes in the U.S. Great Plains?

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Feng, S.; Trnka, Miroslav; Hayes, M.; Zhang, Y.

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 30, č. 1 (2017), s. 265-278 ISSN 0894-8755 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) LO1415; GA ČR(CZ) GA16-16549S Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : North America * Drought * Soil moisture * Climate models * Climate variability Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology OBOR OECD: Meteorology and atmospheric sciences Impact factor: 4.161, year: 2016

  2. Modelling Thermal Diffusivity of Differently Textured Soils

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lukiashchenko, K. I.; Arkhangelskaya, T. A.

    2018-02-01

    A series of models has been proposed for estimating thermal diffusivity of soils at different water contents. Models have been trained on 49 soil samples with the texture range from sands to silty clays. The bulk density of the studied soils varied from 0.86 to 1.82 g/cm3; the organic carbon was between 0.05 and 6.49%; the physical clay ranged from 1 to 76%. The thermal diffusivity of undisturbed soil cores measured by the unsteady-state method varied from 0.78×10-7 m2/s for silty clay at the water content of 0.142 cm3/cm3 to 10.09 × 10-7 m2/s for sand at the water content of 0.138 cm3/cm3. Each experimental curve was described by the four-parameter function proposed earlier. Pedotransfer functions were then developed to estimate the parameters of the thermal diffusivity vs. water content function from data on soil texture, bulk density, and organic carbon. Models were tested on 32 samples not included in the training set. The root mean square errors of the best-performing models were 17-38%. The models using texture data performed better than the model using only data on soil bulk density and organic carbon.

  3. Korarchaeota diversity, biogeography, and abundance in Yellowstone and Great Basin hot springs and ecological niche modeling based on machine learning.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robin L Miller-Coleman

    Full Text Available Over 100 hot spring sediment samples were collected from 28 sites in 12 areas/regions, while recording as many coincident geochemical properties as feasible (>60 analytes. PCR was used to screen samples for Korarchaeota 16S rRNA genes. Over 500 Korarchaeota 16S rRNA genes were screened by RFLP analysis and 90 were sequenced, resulting in identification of novel Korarchaeota phylotypes and exclusive geographical variants. Korarchaeota diversity was low, as in other terrestrial geothermal systems, suggesting a marine origin for Korarchaeota with subsequent niche-invasion into terrestrial systems. Korarchaeota endemism is consistent with endemism of other terrestrial thermophiles and supports the existence of dispersal barriers. Korarchaeota were found predominantly in >55°C springs at pH 4.7-8.5 at concentrations up to 6.6×10(6 16S rRNA gene copies g(-1 wet sediment. In Yellowstone National Park (YNP, Korarchaeota were most abundant in springs with a pH range of 5.7 to 7.0. High sulfate concentrations suggest these fluids are influenced by contributions from hydrothermal vapors that may be neutralized to some extent by mixing with water from deep geothermal sources or meteoric water. In the Great Basin (GB, Korarchaeota were most abundant at spring sources of pH<7.2 with high particulate C content and high alkalinity, which are likely to be buffered by the carbonic acid system. It is therefore likely that at least two different geological mechanisms in YNP and GB springs create the neutral to mildly acidic pH that is optimal for Korarchaeota. A classification support vector machine (C-SVM trained on single analytes, two analyte combinations, or vectors from non-metric multidimensional scaling models was able to predict springs as Korarchaeota-optimal or sub-optimal habitats with accuracies up to 95%. To our knowledge, this is the most extensive analysis of the geochemical habitat of any high-level microbial taxon and the first application of a C

  4. Growth-Prediction Model for Blue Mussels (Mytilus edulis on Future Optimally Thinned Farm-Ropes in Great Belt (Denmark

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Poul S. Larsen

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available A recently developed BioEnergetic Growth (BEG model for blue mussels (Mytilus edulis, valid for juvenile mussels, has been further developed to an ‘extended model’ and an alternative ‘ad hoc BEG model’ valid for post-metamorphic mussels, where the latter accounts for changing ambient chl a concentration. It was used to predict the growth of M. edulis on optimally thinned farm-ropes in Great Belt (Denmark, from newly settled post-metamorphic mussels of an initial shell size of 0.8 mm to marketable juvenile 30–35 mm ‘mini-mussels’. Such mussels will presumably in the near future be introduced as a new Danish, smaller-sized consumer product. Field data for actual growth (from Day 0 = 14 June 2011 showed that size of ‘mini-mussel’ was reached on Day 109 (Oct 1 and length 38 mm on Day 178 (Dec 9 while the corresponding predictions using the extended model were Day 121 (Oct 13 and Day 159 (Nov 20. Similar results were obtained by use of the ad hoc BEG model which also demonstrated the sensitivity of growth prediction to levels of chl a concentration, but less to temperature. The results suggest that it is possible (when the conditions are optimal, i.e., no intraspecific competition ensured by sufficient thinning to produce ‘mini-mussels’ in Great Belt during one season, but not the usual marketable 45-mm mussels. We suggest that the prediction model may be used as a practical instrument to evaluate to what degree the actual growth of mussels on farm ropes due to intraspecific competition may deviate from the potential (optimal growth under specified chl a and temperature conditions, and this implies that the effect of thinning to optimize the individual growth by eliminating intraspecific competition can be rationally evaluated.

  5. Modeling of STATCOM under different loading conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    George, G.J.; Ramachandran, Rakesh; Kowsalya, M.

    2012-01-01

    This paper deals with the study and analysis of Flexible AC Transmission Systems (FACTS), mainly the modeling of STATCOM. Reactive Power Compensation plays a very important role in the transmission of Electric Power. A comparative study of how the reactive power is injected into the transmission ...... system with and without STATCOM under different loading condition is also illustrated in this paper. Simulations are performed using MATLAB/SIMULINK software....

  6. Comparison of Different Mathematical Models of Cavitation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dorota HOMA

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Cavitation occurs during the flow when local pressure drops to the saturation pressure according to the temperature of the flow. It includes both evaporation and condensation of the vapor bubbles, which occur alternately with high frequency. Cavitation can be very dangerous, especially for pumps, because it leads to break of flow continuity, noise, vibration, erosion of blades and change in pump’s characteristics. Therefore it is very important for pump designers and users to avoid working in cavitation conditions. Simulation of flow can be very useful in that and can indicate if there is risk of cavitating flow occurrence. As this is a multiphase flow and quite complicated phenomena, there are a few mathematical models describing it. The aim of this paper is to make a short review of them and describe their approach to model cavitation. It is desirable to know differences between them to model this phenomenon properly.

  7. A comparative study of the use of different risk-assessment models in Danish municipalities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Kresta Munkholt

    2018-01-01

    Risk-assessment models are widely used in casework involving vulnerable children and families. Internationally, there are a number of different kinds of models with great variation in regard to the characteristics of factors that harm children. Lists of factors have been made but most of them give...

  8. A coupled biophysical model for the distribution of the great scallop Pecten maximus in the English Channel

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le Goff, Clément; Lavaud, Romain; Cugier, Philippe; Jean, Fred; Flye-Sainte-Marie, Jonathan; Foucher, Eric; Desroy, Nicolas; Fifas, Spyros; Foveau, Aurélie

    2017-03-01

    In this paper we used a modelling approach integrating both physical and biological constraints to understand the biogeographical distribution of the great scallop Pecten maximus in the English Channel during its whole life cycle. A 3D bio-hydrodynamical model (ECO-MARS3D) providing environmental conditions was coupled to (i) a population dynamics model and (ii) an individual ecophysiological model (Dynamic Energy Budget model). We performed the coupling sequentially, which underlined the respective role of biological and physical factors in defining P. maximus distribution in the English Channel. Results show that larval dispersion by hydrodynamics explains most of the scallop distribution and enlighten the main known hotspots for the population, basically corresponding to the main fishing areas. The mechanistic description of individual bioenergetics shows that food availability and temperature control growth and reproduction and explain how populations may maintain themselves in particular locations. This last coupling leads to more realistic densities and distributions of adults in the English Channel. The results of this study improves our knowledge on the stock and distribution dynamics of P. maximus, and provides grounds for useful tools to support management strategies.

  9. Modeling of Gender Differences in Thermoregulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iyoho, Anthony E; Ng, Laurel J; MacFadden, Lisa

    2017-03-01

    In January 2013, the Department of Defense lifted a ban that had prevented women from holding combat positions in the military. However, innate differences in physical traits and physiology between men and women likely will result in differences in physical performance. Sex differences in thermoregulation is a key area that needs to be examined due to the potential impact on physical performance. Therefore, we expanded our previously developed thermoregulation model (TRM) to include the effects of gender. Women have been found to have a lower sweat output in heat stress and lesser shivering in cold stress than men; therefore, the equations for sweat mass loss rate and shivering heat generation were modified for women accordingly. The updated TRM showed good agreement with female data collected from exercise in cool to hot conditions, cold air exposure, and cold water immersion. Gender differences in sweat evaporation appear minimal except for sufficiently high exercise-heat combinations. Gender differences in core temperature and heat generation during cold stress are significant. The expanded TRM can be used to assess gender-specific thermal response with future application to predicting performance differences and optimizing warfighter effectiveness for a wide range of military relevant tasks. Reprint & Copyright © 2017 Association of Military Surgeons of the U.S.

  10. CO2 Dynamics in winter wheat and canola under different management practices in the Southern Great Plains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wagle, P.; Manjunatha, P.; Gowda, P. H.; Northup, B. K.; Neel, J. P. S.; Turner, K.; Steiner, J. L.

    2017-12-01

    Rising atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration and increased air temperature and climatic variability concerns have prompted considerable interest regarding CO2 dynamics of terrestrial ecosystems in response to major climatic and biophysical factors. However, detailed information on CO2 dynamics in winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) and canola (Brassica napus L.) under different agricultural management practices is lacking. As a part of the GRL-FLUXNET, a cluster of eight eddy covariance (EC) systems was deployed on the 420-ha Grazinglands Research on agroEcosystems and the ENvironment (GREEN) Farm at the United States Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Research Service (USDA-ARS), Grazinglands Research Laboratory (GRL), El Reno, OK. The GRL is also one of 18 USDA-ARS Long-Term Agroecosystem Research (LTAR) network sites in the United States. A 4-year crop rotation plan at the farm includes winter wheat for grain only, graze-grain, and graze-out, and canola under conventional till and no-till management conditions. Biometric measurements such as biomass, leaf area index (LAI), canopy cover %, canopy height, and chlorophyll content were collected approximately every 16 days to coincide with Landsat satellite overpass dates. As expected, biomass and LAI were highest in the grain only wheat fields followed by graze-grain and graze-out wheat fields, but they were similar for till and no-till wheat fields within the same grazing practice. Biomass and LAI were similar in till and no-till canola in fall 2016, but both were substantially lower in no-till compared to tilled canola during spring 2017 due to more severe winter damage. Because net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE) is strongly regulated by vegetation cover, the magnitudes of NEE were highest in the grain only wheat fields due to more biomass and LAI, followed by graze-grain and graze-out wheat fields. Similarly, the magnitudes of NEE were also higher in tilled canola (i.e., higher biomass and LAI) than

  11. Great Lakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edsall, Thomas A.; Mac, Michael J.; Opler, Paul A.; Puckett Haecker, Catherine E.; Doran, Peter D.

    1998-01-01

    The Great Lakes region, as defined here, includes the Great Lakes and their drainage basins in Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and New York. The region also includes the portions of Minnesota, Wisconsin, and the 21 northernmost counties of Illinois that lie in the Mississippi River drainage basin, outside the floodplain of the river. The region spans about 9º of latitude and 20º of longitude and lies roughly halfway between the equator and the North Pole in a lowland corridor that extends from the Gulf of Mexico to the Arctic Ocean.The Great Lakes are the most prominent natural feature of the region (Fig. 1). They have a combined surface area of about 245,000 square kilometers and are among the largest, deepest lakes in the world. They are the largest single aggregation of fresh water on the planet (excluding the polar ice caps) and are the only glacial feature on Earth visible from the surface of the moon (The Nature Conservancy 1994a).The Great Lakes moderate the region’s climate, which presently ranges from subarctic in the north to humid continental warm in the south (Fig. 2), reflecting the movement of major weather masses from the north and south (U.S. Department of the Interior 1970; Eichenlaub 1979). The lakes act as heat sinks in summer and heat sources in winter and are major reservoirs that help humidify much of the region. They also create local precipitation belts in areas where air masses are pushed across the lakes by prevailing winds, pick up moisture from the lake surface, and then drop that moisture over land on the other side of the lake. The mean annual frost-free period—a general measure of the growing-season length for plants and some cold-blooded animals—varies from 60 days at higher elevations in the north to 160 days in lakeshore areas in the south. The climate influences the general distribution of wild plants and animals in the region and also influences the activities and distribution of the human

  12. Biodiversity and species-environment relationships of the demersal fish assemblage at the Great Meteor Seamount (subtropical NE Atlantic), sampled by different trawls

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fock, H.; Uiblein, F.; Köster, Fritz

    2002-01-01

    Quantitative data collected with different bottom trawls at the Great Meteor Scamount (subtropical NE Atlantic, 30degreesN; 28.5degreesW) in 1967, 1970 and 1998 are compared. Bootstrap estimates of total catch per unit effort increased from 6.96 and 10.8 ind. m(-1) h(-1) in 1967 and 1970, respect......Quantitative data collected with different bottom trawls at the Great Meteor Scamount (subtropical NE Atlantic, 30degreesN; 28.5degreesW) in 1967, 1970 and 1998 are compared. Bootstrap estimates of total catch per unit effort increased from 6.96 and 10.8 ind. m(-1) h(-1) in 1967 and 1970...... information, a grand total of 46 species was found associated with the Great Meteor Seamount. Diversity was higher in 1967 and 1970 (Shannon's diversity: H'=2.5 and 1.6) than in 1998 (H'=0.9). Species-environment relationships are discussed in terms of a sound-scattering layer-interception hypothesis, i...

  13. Seasonal patterns in growth, blood consumption, and effects on hosts by parasitic-phase sea lampreys in the Great Lakes: an individual-based model approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madenjian, Charles P.; Cochran, Philip A.; Bergstedt, Roger A.

    2003-01-01

    An individual-based model (IBM) was developed for sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus) populations in the Laurentian Great Lakes. The IBM was then calibrated to observed growth, by season, for sea lampreys in northern Lake Huron under two different water temperature regimes: a regime experienced by Seneca-strain lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) and a regime experienced by Marquettestrain lake trout. Modeling results indicated that seasonal blood consumption under the Seneca regime was very similar to that under the Marquette regime. Simulated mortality of lake trout directly due to blood removal by sea lampreys occurred at nearly twice the rate during August and September under the Marquette regime than under the Seneca regime. However, cumulative sea lamprey-induced mortality on lake trout over the entire duration of the sea lamprey's parasitic phase was only 7% higher for the Marquette regime compared with the Seneca regime. Thus, these modeling results indicated that the strain composition of the host (lake trout) population was not important in determining total number of lake trout deaths or total blood consumption attributable to the sea lamprey population, given the sea lamprey growth pattern. Regardless of water temperature regime, both blood consumption rate by sea lampreys and rate of sea lamprey-induced mortality on lake trout peaked in late October. Elevated blood consumption in late October appeared to be unrelated to changes in water temperature. The IBM approach should prove useful in optimizing control of sea lampreys in the Laurentian Great Lakes.

  14. Mental Models, Magical Thinking, And Individual Differences

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Phil Turner

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Broadly, there are two mutually exclusive accounts of how people (non-specialist users reason about and conceptualize interactive technology. The first is based on classical cognitive psychology and is characterized by the term mental model. The second, drawing on concepts from social cognition, observes that people often anthropomorphize technology. We argue that people are able to exhibit both of these quite different styles of cognition, which Baron-Cohen has described as systemizing and empathizing. The former is associated with the drive to analyze, explore, and construct a system, whereas the latter is the ability to spontaneously tune into another’s thoughts and feelings. The propensity to systemize might give rise to a mental model, while the empathizing tendency might tend to anthropomorphize technology. We present an empirical study that lends support for the above position.

  15. A numerical model investigation of the impacts of Hurricane Sandy on water level variability in Great South Bay, New York

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bennett, Vanessa C. C.; Mulligan, Ryan P.; Hapke, Cheryl J.

    2018-01-01

    Hurricane Sandy was a large and intense storm with high winds that caused total water levels from combined tides and storm surge to reach 4.0 m in the Atlantic Ocean and 2.5 m in Great South Bay (GSB), a back-barrier bay between Fire Island and Long Island, New York. In this study the impact of the hurricane winds and waves are examined in order to understand the flow of ocean water into the back-barrier bay and water level variations within the bay. To accomplish this goal, a high resolution hurricane wind field is used to drive the coupled Delft3D-SWAN hydrodynamic and wave models over a series of grids with the finest resolution in GSB. The processes that control water levels in the back-barrier bay are investigated by comparing the results of four cases that include: (i) tides only; (ii) tides, winds and waves with no overwash over Fire Island allowed; (iii) tides, winds, waves and limited overwash at the east end of the island; (iv) tides, winds, waves and extensive overwash along the island. The results indicate that strong local wind-driven storm surge along the bay axis had the largest influence on the total water level fluctuations during the hurricane. However, the simulations allowing for overwash have higher correlation with water level observations in GSB and suggest that island overwash provided a significant contribution of ocean water to eastern GSB during the storm. The computations indicate that overwash of 7500–10,000 m3s−1 was approximately the same as the inflow from the ocean through the major existing inlet. Overall, the model results indicate the complex variability in total water levels driven by tides, ocean storm surge, surge from local winds, and overwash that had a significant impact on the circulation in Great South Bay during Hurricane Sandy.

  16. Modeling Storm Surge and Inundation in Washington, DC, during Hurricane Isabel and the 1936 Potomac River Great Flood

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Harry V. Wang

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Washington, DC, the capital of the U.S., is located along the Upper Tidal Potomac River, where a reliable operational model is needed for making predictions of storm surge and river-induced flooding. We set up a finite volume model using a semi-implicit, Eulerian-Lagrangian scheme on a base grid (200 m and a special feature of sub-grids (10 m, sourced with high-resolution LiDAR data and bathymetry surveys. The model domain starts at the fall line and extends 120 km downstream to Colonial Beach, VA. The model was used to simulate storm tides during the 2003 Hurricane Isabel. The water level measuring 3.1 m reached the upper tidal river in the vicinity of Washington during the peak of the storm, followed by second and third flood peaks two and four days later, resulting from river flooding coming downstream after heavy precipitation in the watershed. The modeled water level and timing were accurate in matching with the verified peak observations within 9 cm and 3 cm, and with R2 equal to 0.93 and 0.98 at the Wisconsin Avenue and Washington gauges, respectively. A simulation was also conducted for reconstructing the historical 1936 Potomac River Great Flood that inundated downtown. It was identified that the flood water, with a velocity exceeding 2.7 m/s in the downstream of Roosevelt Island, pinched through the bank northwest of East Potomac Park near DC. The modeled maximum inundation extents revealed a crescent-shaped flooding area, which was consistent with the historical surveyed flood map of the event.

  17. Multilevel Empirical Bayes Modeling for Improved Estimation of Toxicant Formulations to Suppress Parasitic Sea Lamprey in the Upper Great Lakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hatfield, L.A.; Gutreuter, S.; Boogaard, M.A.; Carlin, B.P.

    2011-01-01

    Estimation of extreme quantal-response statistics, such as the concentration required to kill 99.9% of test subjects (LC99.9), remains a challenge in the presence of multiple covariates and complex study designs. Accurate and precise estimates of the LC99.9 for mixtures of toxicants are critical to ongoing control of a parasitic invasive species, the sea lamprey, in the Laurentian Great Lakes of North America. The toxicity of those chemicals is affected by local and temporal variations in water chemistry, which must be incorporated into the modeling. We develop multilevel empirical Bayes models for data from multiple laboratory studies. Our approach yields more accurate and precise estimation of the LC99.9 compared to alternative models considered. This study demonstrates that properly incorporating hierarchical structure in laboratory data yields better estimates of LC99.9 stream treatment values that are critical to larvae control in the field. In addition, out-of-sample prediction of the results of in situ tests reveals the presence of a latent seasonal effect not manifest in the laboratory studies, suggesting avenues for future study and illustrating the importance of dual consideration of both experimental and observational data. ?? 2011, The International Biometric Society.

  18. Sex differences in animal models of decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orsini, Caitlin A; Setlow, Barry

    2017-01-02

    The ability to weigh the costs and benefits of various options to make an adaptive decision is critical to an organism's survival and wellbeing. Many psychiatric diseases are characterized by maladaptive decision making, indicating a need for better understanding of the mechanisms underlying this process and the ways in which it is altered under pathological conditions. Great strides have been made in uncovering these mechanisms, but the majority of what is known comes from studies conducted solely in male subjects. In recent years, decision-making research has begun to include female subjects to determine whether sex differences exist and to identify the mechanisms that contribute to such differences. This Mini-Review begins by describing studies that have examined sex differences in animal (largely rodent) models of decision making. Possible explanations, both theoretical and biological, for such differences in decision making are then considered. The Mini-Review concludes with a discussion of the implications of sex differences in decision making for understanding psychiatric conditions. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  19. Sex Differences in Animal Models of Decision-Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orsini, Caitlin A.; Setlow, Barry

    2016-01-01

    The ability to weigh the costs and benefits of various options in order to make an adaptive decision is critical to an organism’s survival and well-being. Many psychiatric diseases are characterized by maladaptive decision-making, indicating the need to better understand the mechanisms underlying this process and the ways in which it is altered in pathological conditions. Great strides have been made in uncovering these mechanisms, but the majority of what is known comes from studies conducted solely in male subjects. In recent years, decision-making research has begun to include females to determine whether sex differences exist and to identify the mechanisms that contribute to such differences. This review will begin by describing studies that have examined sex differences in animal (largely rodent) models of decision-making. Possible explanations, both theoretical and biological, for such differences in decision- making will then be considered. The review will conclude with a discussion of the implications of sex differences in decision-making for understanding psychiatric conditions. PMID:27870448

  20. Application of the North American Multi-Model Ensemble to seasonal water supply forecasting in the Great Lakes basin through the use of the Great Lakes Seasonal Climate Forecast Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gronewold, A.; Apps, D.; Fry, L. M.; Bolinger, R.

    2017-12-01

    The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) contribution to the internationally coordinated 6-month forecast of Great Lakes water levels relies on several water supply models, including a regression model relating a coming month's water supply to past water supplies, previous months' precipitation and temperature, and forecasted precipitation and temperature. Probabilistic forecasts of precipitation and temperature depicted in the Climate Prediction Center's seasonal outlook maps are considered to be standard for use in operational forecasting for seasonal time horizons, and have provided the basis for computing a coming month's precipitation and temperature for use in the USACE water supply regression models. The CPC outlook maps are a useful forecast product offering insight into interpretation of climate models through the prognostic discussion and graphical forecasts. However, recent evolution of USACE forecast procedures to accommodate automated data transfer and manipulation offers a new opportunity for direct incorporation of ensemble climate forecast data into probabilistic outlooks of water supply using existing models that have previously been implemented in a deterministic fashion. We will present results from a study investigating the potential for applying data from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble to operational water supply forecasts. The use of NMME forecasts is facilitated by a new, publicly available, Great Lakes Seasonal Climate Forecast Tool that provides operational forecasts of monthly average temperatures and monthly total precipitation summarized for each lake basin.

  1. Modeling heat stress under different environmental conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carabaño, M J; Logar, B; Bormann, J; Minet, J; Vanrobays, M-L; Díaz, C; Tychon, B; Gengler, N; Hammami, H

    2016-05-01

    Renewed interest in heat stress effects on livestock productivity derives from climate change, which is expected to increase temperatures and the frequency of extreme weather events. This study aimed at evaluating the effect of temperature and humidity on milk production in highly selected dairy cattle populations across 3 European regions differing in climate and production systems to detect differences and similarities that can be used to optimize heat stress (HS) effect modeling. Milk, fat, and protein test day data from official milk recording for 1999 to 2010 in 4 Holstein populations located in the Walloon Region of Belgium (BEL), Luxembourg (LUX), Slovenia (SLO), and southern Spain (SPA) were merged with temperature and humidity data provided by the state meteorological agencies. After merging, the number of test day records/cows per trait ranged from 686,726/49,655 in SLO to 1,982,047/136,746 in BEL. Values for the daily average and maximum temperature-humidity index (THIavg and THImax) ranges for THIavg/THImax were largest in SLO (22-74/28-84) and shortest in SPA (39-76/46-83). Change point techniques were used to determine comfort thresholds, which differed across traits and climatic regions. Milk yield showed an inverted U-shaped pattern of response across the THI scale with a HS threshold around 73 THImax units. For fat and protein, thresholds were lower than for milk yield and were shifted around 6 THI units toward larger values in SPA compared with the other countries. Fat showed lower HS thresholds than protein traits in all countries. The traditional broken line model was compared with quadratic and cubic fits of the pattern of response in production to increasing heat loads. A cubic polynomial model allowing for individual variation in patterns of response and THIavg as heat load measure showed the best statistical features. Higher/lower producing animals showed less/more persistent production (quantity and quality) across the THI scale. The

  2. Growth-Prediction Model for Blue Mussels (Mytilus edulis) on Future Optimally Thinned Farm-Ropes in Great Belt (Denmark)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Poul Scheel; Riisgård, Hans

    2016-01-01

    A recently developed BioEnergetic Growth (BEG) model for blue mussels (Mytilus edulis), valid for juvenile mussels, has been further developed to an ‘extended model’ and an alternative ‘ad hoc BEG model’ valid for post-metamorphic mussels, where the latter accounts for changing ambient chl...... a concentration. It was used to predict the growth of M. edulis on optimally thinned farm-ropes in Great Belt (Denmark), from newly settled post-metamorphic mussels of an initial shell size of 0.8 mm to marketable juvenile 30–35 mm ‘mini-mussels’. Such mussels will presumably in the near future be introduced...... as a new Danish, smaller-sized consumer product. Field data for actual growth (from Day 0 = 14 June 2011) showed that size of ‘mini-mussel’ was reached on Day 109 (Oct 1) and length 38 mm on Day 178 (Dec 9) while the corresponding predictions using the extended model were Day 121 (Oct 13) and Day 159 (Nov...

  3. Nitrate Sources, Supply, and Phytoplankton Growth in the Great Australian Bight: An Eulerian-Lagrangian Modeling Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cetina-Heredia, Paulina; van Sebille, Erik; Matear, Richard J.; Roughan, Moninya

    2018-02-01

    The Great Australian Bight (GAB), a coastal sea bordered by the Pacific, Southern, and Indian Oceans, sustains one of the largest fisheries in Australia but the geographical origin of nutrients that maintain its productivity is not fully known. We use 12 years of modeled data from a coupled hydrodynamic and biogeochemical model and an Eulerian-Lagrangian approach to quantify nitrate supply to the GAB and the region between the GAB and the Subantarctic Australian Front (GAB-SAFn), identify phytoplankton growth within the GAB, and ascertain the source of nitrate that fuels it. We find that nitrate concentrations have a decorrelation timescale of ˜60 days; since most of the water from surrounding oceans takes longer than 60 days to reach the GAB, 23% and 75% of nitrate used by phytoplankton to grow are sourced within the GAB and from the GAB-SAFn, respectively. Thus, most of the nitrate is recycled locally. Although nitrate concentrations and fluxes into the GAB are greater below 100 m than above, 79% of the nitrate fueling phytoplankton growth is sourced from above 100 m. Our findings suggest that topographical uplift and stratification erosion are key mechanisms delivering nutrients from below the nutricline into the euphotic zone and triggering large phytoplankton growth. We find annual and semiannual periodicities in phytoplankton growth, peaking in the austral spring and autumn when the mixed layer deepens leading to a subsurface maximum of phytoplankton growth. This study highlights the importance of examining phytoplankton growth at depth and the utility of Lagrangian approaches.

  4. Use of remote-sensing reflectance to constrain a data assimilating marine biogeochemical model of the Great Barrier Reef

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Emlyn M.; Baird, Mark E.; Mongin, Mathieu; Parslow, John; Skerratt, Jenny; Lovell, Jenny; Margvelashvili, Nugzar; Matear, Richard J.; Wild-Allen, Karen; Robson, Barbara; Rizwi, Farhan; Oke, Peter; King, Edward; Schroeder, Thomas; Steven, Andy; Taylor, John

    2016-12-01

    Skillful marine biogeochemical (BGC) models are required to understand a range of coastal and global phenomena such as changes in nitrogen and carbon cycles. The refinement of BGC models through the assimilation of variables calculated from observed in-water inherent optical properties (IOPs), such as phytoplankton absorption, is problematic. Empirically derived relationships between IOPs and variables such as chlorophyll-a concentration (Chl a), total suspended solids (TSS) and coloured dissolved organic matter (CDOM) have been shown to have errors that can exceed 100 % of the observed quantity. These errors are greatest in shallow coastal regions, such as the Great Barrier Reef (GBR), due to the additional signal from bottom reflectance. Rather than assimilate quantities calculated using IOP algorithms, this study demonstrates the advantages of assimilating quantities calculated directly from the less error-prone satellite remote-sensing reflectance (RSR). To assimilate the observed RSR, we use an in-water optical model to produce an equivalent simulated RSR and calculate the mismatch between the observed and simulated quantities to constrain the BGC model with a deterministic ensemble Kalman filter (DEnKF). The traditional assumption that simulated surface Chl a is equivalent to the remotely sensed OC3M estimate of Chl a resulted in a forecast error of approximately 75 %. We show this error can be halved by instead using simulated RSR to constrain the model via the assimilation system. When the analysis and forecast fields from the RSR-based assimilation system are compared with the non-assimilating model, a comparison against independent in situ observations of Chl a, TSS and dissolved inorganic nutrients (NO3, NH4 and DIP) showed that errors are reduced by up to 90 %. In all cases, the assimilation system improves the simulation compared to the non-assimilating model. Our approach allows for the incorporation of vast quantities of remote-sensing observations

  5. Drop Hammer Tests with Three Oleo Strut Models and Three Different Shock Strut Oils at Low Temperatures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kranz, M

    1954-01-01

    Drop hammer tests with different shock strut models and shock strut oils were performed at temperatures ranging to -40 C. The various shock strut models do not differ essentially regarding their springing and damping properties at low temperatures; however, the influence of the different shock strut oils on the springing properties at low temperatures varies greatly.

  6. The agony of choice: different empirical mortality models lead to sharply different future forest dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bircher, Nicolas; Cailleret, Maxime; Bugmann, Harald

    2015-07-01

    Dynamic models are pivotal for projecting forest dynamics in a changing climate, from the local to the global scale. They encapsulate the processes of tree population dynamics with varying resolution. Yet, almost invariably, tree mortality is modeled based on simple, theoretical assumptions that lack a physiological and/or empirical basis. Although this has been widely criticized and a growing number of empirically derived alternatives are available, they have not been tested systematically in models of forest dynamics. We implemented an inventory-based and a tree-ring-based mortality routine in the forest gap model ForClim v3.0. We combined these routines with a stochastic and a deterministic approach for the determination of tree status (alive vs. dead). We tested the four new model versions for two Norway spruce forests in the Swiss Alps, one of which was managed (inventory time series spanning 72 years) and the other was unmanaged (41 years). Furthermore, we ran long-term simulations (-400 years) into the future under three climate scenarios to test model behavior under changing environmental conditions. The tests against inventory data showed an excellent match of simulated basal area and stem numbers at the managed site and a fair agreement at the unmanaged site for three of the four empirical mortality models, thus rendering the choice of one particular model difficult. However, long-term simulations under current climate revealed very different behavior of the mortality models in terms of simulated changes of basal area and stem numbers, both in timing and magnitude, thus indicating high sensitivity of simulated forest dynamics to assumptions on tree mortality. Our results underpin the potential of using empirical mortality routines in forest gap models. However, further tests are needed that span other climatic conditions and mixed forests. Short-term simulations to benchmark model behavior against empirical data are insufficient; long-term tests are

  7. Similarities and differences in gastrointestinal physiology between neonates and adults: a physiologically based pharmacokinetic modeling perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Guo; Zheng, Qing-Shan; Li, Guo-Fu

    2014-11-01

    Physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling holds great promise for anticipating the quantitative changes of pharmacokinetics in pediatric populations relative to adults, which has served as a useful tool in regulatory reviews. Although the availability of specialized software for PBPK modeling has facilitated the widespread applications of this approach in regulatory submissions, challenges in the implementation and interpretation of pediatric PBPK models remain great, for which controversies and knowledge gaps remain regarding neonatal development of the gastrointestinal tract. The commentary highlights the similarities and differences in the gastrointestinal pH and transit time between neonates and adults from a PBPK modeling prospective. Understanding the similarities and differences in these physiological parameters governing oral absorption would promote good practice in the use of pediatric PBPK modeling to assess oral exposure and pharmacokinetics in neonates.

  8. A population model of the impact of a rodenticide containing strychnine on Great Basin Gophersnakes (Pituophis catenifer deserticola).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bishop, Christine A; Williams, Kathleen E; Kirk, David A; Nantel, Patrick; Reed, Eric; Elliott, John E

    2016-09-01

    Strychnine is a neurotoxin and an active ingredient in some rodenticides which are placed in burrows to suppress pocket gopher (Thomomys talpoides) populations in range and crop land in western North America. The population level impact was modelled of the use of strychnine-based rodenticides on a non-target snake species, the Great Basin Gophersnake (Pituophis catenifer deserticola), which is a predator of pocket gopher and a Species at Risk in Canada. Using information on population density, demographics, and movement and habitat suitability for the Gophersnake living in an agricultural valley in BC, Canada, we estimated the impact of the poisoning of adult snakes on the long-term population size. To determine the area where Gophersnakes could be exposed to strychnine, we used vendor records of a rodenticide, and quantified the landcover areas of orchards and vineyards where the compound was most commonly applied. GIS analysis determined the areas of overlap between those agricultural lands and suitable habitats used by Gophersnakes. Stage-based population matrix models revealed that in a low density (0.1/ha) population scenario, a diet of one pocket gopher per year wherein 10 % of them carried enough strychnine to kill an adult snake could cause the loss of 2 females annually from the population and this would reduce the population by 35.3 % in 25 years. Under the same dietary exposure, up to 35 females could die per year in a high density (0.4/ha) population which would result in a loss of 50 % of adults in 25 years.

  9. Climate change effects on wildland fire risk in the Northeastern and Great Lakes states predicted by a downscaled multi-model ensemble

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kerr, Gaige Hunter; DeGaetano, Arthur T.; Stoof, Cathelijne R.; Ward, Daniel

    2018-01-01

    This study is among the first to investigate wildland fire risk in the Northeastern and the Great Lakes states under a changing climate. We use a multi-model ensemble (MME) of regional climate models from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) together with the Canadian Forest

  10. Do great teams think alike? An examination of team mental models and their impact on team performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gardner, Aimee K; Scott, Daniel J; AbdelFattah, Kareem R

    2017-05-01

    Team mental models represent the shared understanding of team members within their relevant environment. Thus, team mental models should have a substantial impact on a team's ability to engage in purposeful and coordinated action. We sought to examine the impact of shared team mental models on team performance and to investigate if team mental models increase over time as teams continue to work together. New surgery interns were assigned randomly to 1 of 10 teams. Each team participated in one unique simulation every day for 5 days, each followed by video-based debriefing with a facilitator. Participants also completed independently a concept similarity tool validated previously in nonmedical team literature to assess team mental models. All performances were video recorded and evaluated with a scenario-specific team performance tool by a single, blinded junior surgeon under an institutional review board-approved protocol. Changes in performance and team mental models over time were assessed with paired samples t tests. Regression analysis was used to examine the extent to which team mental models predicted team performance. Thirty interns (age 27; 77% men) participated in the training program. Percentage of items achieved (x¯ ± SD) on the performance evaluation was 39 ± 20, 51 ± 14, 22 ± 17, 63 ± 14, and 77 ± 25 for Days 1-5, respectively. Team mental models were 30 ± 5, 28 ± 6, 27 ± 8, 26 ± 7, and 25 ± 6 for Days 1-5 respectively, such that larger values corresponded to greater differences in team mental models. Paired sample t tests indicated that both average performance and team mental models similarity improved from the first to last day (P team mental models predicted team performance on Days 2-5 (all P team mental models among the teams leads to better team performance. Additionally, the increase in team mental models over time suggests that engaging in team-based simulation may catalyze the process by which surgery

  11. Korarchaeota diversity, biogeography, and abundance in Yellowstone and Great Basin hot springs and ecological niche modeling based on machine learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller-Coleman, Robin L; Dodsworth, Jeremy A; Ross, Christian A; Shock, Everett L; Williams, Amanda J; Hartnett, Hilairy E; McDonald, Austin I; Havig, Jeff R; Hedlund, Brian P

    2012-01-01

    Over 100 hot spring sediment samples were collected from 28 sites in 12 areas/regions, while recording as many coincident geochemical properties as feasible (>60 analytes). PCR was used to screen samples for Korarchaeota 16S rRNA genes. Over 500 Korarchaeota 16S rRNA genes were screened by RFLP analysis and 90 were sequenced, resulting in identification of novel Korarchaeota phylotypes and exclusive geographical variants. Korarchaeota diversity was low, as in other terrestrial geothermal systems, suggesting a marine origin for Korarchaeota with subsequent niche-invasion into terrestrial systems. Korarchaeota endemism is consistent with endemism of other terrestrial thermophiles and supports the existence of dispersal barriers. Korarchaeota were found predominantly in >55°C springs at pH 4.7-8.5 at concentrations up to 6.6×10(6) 16S rRNA gene copies g(-1) wet sediment. In Yellowstone National Park (YNP), Korarchaeota were most abundant in springs with a pH range of 5.7 to 7.0. High sulfate concentrations suggest these fluids are influenced by contributions from hydrothermal vapors that may be neutralized to some extent by mixing with water from deep geothermal sources or meteoric water. In the Great Basin (GB), Korarchaeota were most abundant at spring sources of pHsprings create the neutral to mildly acidic pH that is optimal for Korarchaeota. A classification support vector machine (C-SVM) trained on single analytes, two analyte combinations, or vectors from non-metric multidimensional scaling models was able to predict springs as Korarchaeota-optimal or sub-optimal habitats with accuracies up to 95%. To our knowledge, this is the most extensive analysis of the geochemical habitat of any high-level microbial taxon and the first application of a C-SVM to microbial ecology.

  12. Linking a Large-Watershed Hydrogeochemical Model to a Wetland Community-Ecosystem Model to Estimate Plant Invasion Risk in the Coastal Great Lakes Region, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Currie, W. S.; Bourgeau-Chavez, L. L.; Elgersma, K. J.; French, N. H. F.; Goldberg, D. E.; Hart, S.; Hyndman, D. W.; Kendall, A. D.; Martin, S. L.; Martina, J. P.

    2014-12-01

    In the Laurentian Great Lakes region of the Upper Midwest, USA, agricultural and urban land uses together with high N deposition are contributing to elevated flows of N in rivers and groundwater to coastal wetlands. The functioning of coastal wetlands, which provide a vital link between land and water, are imperative to maintaining the health of the entire Great Lakes Basin. Elevated N inflows are believed to facilitate the spread of large-stature invasive plants (cattails and Phragmites) that reduce biodiversity and have complex effects on other ecosystem services including wetland N retention and C accretion. We enhanced the ILHM (Integrated Landscape Hydrology Model) to simulate the effects of land use on N flows in streams, rivers, and groundwater throughout the Lower Peninsula of Michigan. We used the hydroperiods and N loading rates simulated by ILHM as inputs to the Mondrian model of wetland community-ecosystem processes to estimate invasion risk and other ecosystem services in coastal wetlands around the Michigan coast. Our linked models produced threshold behavior in the success of invasive plants in response to N loading, with the threshold ranging from ca. 8 to 12 g N/m2 y, depending on hydroperiod. Plant invasions increased wetland productivity 3-fold over historically oligotrophic native communities, decreased biodiversity but slightly increased wetland N retention. Regardless of invasion, elevated N loading resulted in significantly enhanced rates of C accretion, providing an important region-wide mechanism of C storage. The linked models predicted a general pattern of greater invasion risk in the southern basins of lakes Michigan and Huron relative to northern areas. The basic mechanisms of invasion have been partially validated in our field mesocosms constructed for this project. The general regional patterns of increased invasion risk have been validated through our field campaigns and remote sensing conducted for this project.

  13. Differences in demographic traits of four butterflyfish species between two reefs of the Great Barrier Reef separated by 1,200 km

    KAUST Repository

    Berumen, Michael L.

    2011-11-16

    Many species demonstrate variation in life history attributes in response to gradients in environmental conditions. For fishes, major drivers of life history variation are changes in temperature and food availability. This study examined large-scale variation in the demography of four species of butterflyfishes (Chaetodon citrinellus, Chaetodon lunulatus, Chaetodon melannotus, and Chaetodon trifascialis) between two locations on Australia\\'s Great Barrier Reef (Lizard Island and One Tree Island, separated by approximately 1,200 km). Variation in age-based demographic parameters was assessed using the re-parameterised von Bertalanffy growth function. All species displayed measurable differences in body size between locations, with individuals achieving a larger adult size at the higher latitude site (One Tree Island) for three of the four species examined. Resources and abundances of the study species were also measured, revealing some significant differences between locations. For example, for C. trifascialis, there was no difference in its preferred resource or in abundance between locations, yet it achieved a larger body size at the higher latitude location, suggesting a response to temperature. For some species, resources and abundances did vary between locations, limiting the ability to distinguish between a demographic response to temperature as opposed to a response to food or competition. Future studies of life histories and demographics at large spatial scales will need to consider the potentially confounding roles of temperature, resource usage and availability, and abundance/competition to disentangle the effects of these environmental variables. © 2011 Springer-Verlag.

  14. Variation, levels and profiles of organochlorines and brominated flame retardants in great tit (Parus major) eggs from different types of sampling locations in Flanders (Belgium).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van den Steen, Evi; Jaspers, Veerle L B; Covaci, Adrian; Dauwe, Tom; Pinxten, Rianne; Neels, Hugo; Eens, Marcel

    2008-02-01

    Small-scale geographical variation in the occurrence of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) and polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) was investigated using the eggs of a terrestrial residential songbird species, the great tit (Parus major). In addition, we investigated the influence of the type of sampling location on the presence of these pollutants. To achieve this, 10 different sampling locations in Flanders (Belgium) were classified into 3 groups based on the extent of urbanisation, industrialisation and agriculture. The higher variance among sampling locations for the levels and profiles of PCBs and OCPs, suggests that local contamination sources are more important for the PCBs and OCPs compared to the PBDEs. Levels of PCBs and PBDEs were significantly higher in the industrialised sampling locations compared to the other locations. Sum PCB and sum PBDE levels reached up to 6050 and 79 ng/g lipid weight, respectively. PCBs and PBDEs were highly positively correlated for all groups, suggesting similar exposure pathways and/or mechanisms of accumulation. Significantly higher levels of OCPs (sum OCPs up to 2683 ng/g lipid weight) were detected in the rural sampling locations situated in a residential area. This suggests that local historical usage of OCPs by inhabitants may be an important source of contamination in Flanders. Contamination profiles differed also among the sampling locations. The rural sampling locations had a higher contribution of lower brominated BDE congeners, whereas the industrialised locations had a higher contribution of higher brominated congeners. The differences in contamination profiles among the sampling locations are probably due to differences in exposure. In conclusion, our results showed that the characteristics of a sampling location influence both the levels and profiles of PCBs, OCPs and PBDEs.

  15. Modelling classroom conditions with different boundary conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Marbjerg, Gerd Høy; Jeong, Cheol-Ho; Brunskog, Jonas

    2014-01-01

    both specular and diffuse reflections with complex-valued acoustical descriptions of the surfaces. In this paper the PARISM model is used to simulate a rectangular room with most of the absorption located in the ceiling. This room configuration is typical for classroom conditions. The simulations...... measures which are important for evaluation of the acoustics in classrooms....

  16. Port-Based Modeling in Different Domains

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Batlle, C.; Couenne, F.; Doria-Cerezo, A.; Fossas, E.; Jallut, C.; Lefevre, L.; Le Gorrec, Y.; Maschke, B.M.; Ortega, R.; Schlacher, K.; Tayakout, M.; Duindam, V.; Macchelli, Alessandro; Stramigioli, Stefano; Bruyninckx, Herman

    2009-01-01

    In this Chapter we present some detailed examples of modelling in several domains using port and port-Hamiltonian concepts, as have been presented in the previous chapters. We start with the electromechanical domain in Sect. 3.1, while in Sect. 3.2 it is shown how port-Hamiltonian systems can be

  17. Measuring productivity differences in equilibrium search models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lanot, Gauthier; Neumann, George R.

    1996-01-01

    Equilibrium search models require unobserved heterogeneity in productivity to fit observed wage distribution data, but provide no guidance about the location parameter of the heterogeneity. In this paper we show that the location of the productivity heterogeneity implies a mode in a kernel density...

  18. Difference-based Model Synchronization in an Industrial MDD Process

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Könemann, Patrick; Kindler, Ekkart; Unland, Ludger

    2009-01-01

    Models play a central role in model-driven software engineering. There are different kinds of models during the development process, which are related to each other and change over time. Therefore, it is difficult to keep the different models consistent with each other. Consistency of different m...... model versions, and for synchronizing other types of models. The main concern is to apply our concepts to an industrial process, in particular keeping usability and performance in mind. Keyword: Model Differencing, Model Merging, Model Synchronization...

  19. Climate change effects on wildland fire risk in the Northeastern and Great Lakes states predicted by a downscaled multi-model ensemble

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kerr, Gaige Hunter; DeGaetano, Arthur T.; Stoof, Cathelijne R.; Ward, Daniel

    2018-01-01

    This study is among the first to investigate wildland fire risk in the Northeastern and the Great Lakes states under a changing climate. We use a multi-model ensemble (MME) of regional climate models from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) together with the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System (CFFWIS) to understand changes in wildland fire risk through differences between historical simulations and future projections. Our results are relatively homogeneous across the focus region and indicate modest increases in the magnitude of fire weather indices (FWIs) during northern hemisphere summer. The most pronounced changes occur in the date of the initialization of CFFWIS and peak of the wildland fire season, which in the future are trending earlier in the year, and in the significant increases in the length of high-risk episodes, defined by the number of consecutive days with FWIs above the current 95th percentile. Further analyses show that these changes are most closely linked to expected changes in the focus region's temperature and precipitation. These findings relate to the current understanding of particulate matter vis-à-vis wildfires and have implications for human health and local and regional changes in radiative forcings. When considering current fire management strategies which could be challenged by increasing wildland fire risk, fire management agencies could adapt new strategies to improve awareness, prevention, and resilience to mitigate potential impacts to critical infrastructure and population.

  20. Great Expectations. [Lesson Plan].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Devine, Kelley

    Based on Charles Dickens' novel "Great Expectations," this lesson plan presents activities designed to help students understand the differences between totalitarianism and democracy; and a that a writer of a story considers theme, plot, characters, setting, and point of view. The main activity of the lesson involves students working in groups to…

  1. Do Orientation-Based Differences in Nestbox Temperature Cause Differential Ectoparasite Load and Explain Patterns of Nest-Site Selection and Offspring Condition in Great Tits?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anne E. Goodenough

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Nest ectoparasites have been linked previously to patterns of nest-site choice and breeding success in birds. Recent research has shown nestboxes facing south-southwest are occupied less frequently by great tits (Parus major than identical boxes facing other directions, and are associated with reduced offspring condition. Here, we investigate the hypothesis that these findings are due to ectoparasite load being directionally nonuniform, possibly because of nonuniformity in nestbox internal temperature. Nests contained, in order of prevalence, hen fleas (Ceratophyllus gallinae, haematophagous blowflies (Protocalliphora spp., biting lice (Ischnocera, and ticks/mites (Acari. Although southwest-facing nestboxes were significantly warmer than other boxes, there was no directional difference in total ectoparasite load or abundance of particular species. Similarly, there was no relationship between abundance of any ectoparasite species (either per-nest or per-chick and avian offspring condition determined using wing length or relative mass. We discuss several possible, nonmutually exclusive, explanations for this, including compensatory responses, costs of parasitism being transferred to parents, and condition-dependent effects.

  2. Finite difference computing with exponential decay models

    CERN Document Server

    Langtangen, Hans Petter

    2016-01-01

    This text provides a very simple, initial introduction to the complete scientific computing pipeline: models, discretization, algorithms, programming, verification, and visualization. The pedagogical strategy is to use one case study – an ordinary differential equation describing exponential decay processes – to illustrate fundamental concepts in mathematics and computer science. The book is easy to read and only requires a command of one-variable calculus and some very basic knowledge about computer programming. Contrary to similar texts on numerical methods and programming, this text has a much stronger focus on implementation and teaches testing and software engineering in particular. .

  3. Environmental fate and ecotoxicological risk of the antibiotic sulfamethoxazole across the Katari catchment (Bolivian Altiplano) : application of the GREAT-ER model

    OpenAIRE

    Archundia, D.; Boithias, Laurie; Duwig, Céline; Morel, M. C.; Aviles, G. F.; Martins, J. M. F.

    2018-01-01

    Antibiotics are emergent contaminants that can induce adverse effects in terrestrial and aquatic organisms. The surface water compartment is of particular concern as it receives direct waste water discharge. Modeling is highlighted as an essential tool to understand the fate and behavior of these compounds and to assess their eco-toxicological risk. This study aims at testing the ability of the GREAT-ER model in simulating sulfamethoxazole (SMX) concentrations in the surface waters of the ari...

  4. A case study of the Great Plains low-level jet using wind profiler network data and a high resolution mesoscale model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhong, S.; Fast, J.D.; Bian, X.; Stage, S. [Pacific Northwest National Lab., Richland, WA (United States)] [and others

    1996-04-01

    The Great Plains low-level jet (LLJ) has important effects on the life cycle of clouds and on radiative and surface heat and moisture fluxes at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) Cloud and Radiation Testbed (CART) site. This diurnal phenomenon governs the transport and convergence of low-level moisture into the region and often leads to the development of clouds and precipitation. A full understanding of the life cycle of clouds at the SGP CART site and their proper representation in single column and global climate models cannot be obtained without an improved understanding of this important phenomenon.

  5. Comparison of surrogate models with different methods in ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Since groundwater remediation is a time consuming and costly ... and sea water intrusion management problems. Hemker et al. .... Case study. 3.1 Site overview. To evaluate the advantages and disadvantages of different surrogate models of groundwater simula- tion model, three different surrogate models (PR model ...

  6. Growing in Cities: An Urban Penalty for Wild Birds? A Study of Phenotypic Differences between Urban and Rural Great Tit Chicks (Parus major

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Clotilde Biard

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Urban sprawl is associated with deep and intense modifications of the natural habitats of wild vertebrates. Although, many species are unable to cope with such an environment, a few species can be found in cities and can help us assessing the impact of urbanization on wildlife. Urban-related environmental modifications are multiple and some of them seem beneficial while others seem rather detrimental to wild vertebrates. Moreover, the impact of these modifications on wild vertebrates is likely to vary depending on the phase of the annual life-cycle. Therefore, it is challenging to get a comprehensive picture of the impact of urbanization on wild vertebrates. Overall, urbanization is usually associated with reduced breeding performances in wild birds, but the impact of urbanization on the phenotype and quality of developing offspring has been less studied. In this study, we specifically investigated the impact of urbanization on several proxies of individual quality in great tits (Parus major. We concomitantly measured body size (tarsus length and body mass, plumage coloration, and telomere length in 14-days old chicks issued from 4 populations (two pairs of urban/rural populations located in two different geographical areas of France. First, rural chicks were significantly taller and heavier than urban birds although this impact of urbanization on body size/body mass appears only true for the most urbanized site. Interestingly, body size was also affected by the geographical area of capture, suggesting that regional environmental conditions may attenuate or exacerbate the influence of urbanization on nestling growth. Second, the carotenoid-based yellow plumage of rural nestlings was more colorful than that of urban birds, independently of the area of capture. This suggests that urban birds probably have a low-carotenoid diet relative to rural birds. Finally, telomere length did not differ between rural and urban chicks. These results suggest

  7. A Habitat-based Wind-Wildlife Collision Model with Application to the Upper Great Plains Region

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Forcey, Greg, M.

    2012-08-28

    Most previous studies on collision impacts at wind facilities have taken place at the site-specific level and have only examined small-scale influences on mortality. In this study, we examine landscape-level influences using a hierarchical spatial model combined with existing datasets and life history knowledge for: Horned Lark, Red-eyed Vireo, Mallard, American Avocet, Golden Eagle, Whooping Crane, red bat, silver-haired bat, and hoary bat. These species were modeled in the central United States within Bird Conservation Regions 11, 17, 18, and 19. For the bird species, we modeled bird abundance from existing datasets as a function of habitat variables known to be preferred by each species to develop a relative abundance prediction for each species. For bats, there are no existing abundance datasets so we identified preferred habitat in the landscape for each species and assumed that greater amounts of preferred habitat would equate to greater abundance of bats. The abundance predictions for bird and bats were modeled with additional exposure factors known to influence collisions such as visibility, wind, temperature, precipitation, topography, and behavior to form a final mapped output of predicted collision risk within the study region. We reviewed published mortality studies from wind farms in our study region and collected data on reported mortality of our focal species to compare to our modeled predictions. We performed a sensitivity analysis evaluating model performance of 6 different scenarios where habitat and exposure factors were weighted differently. We compared the model performance in each scenario by evaluating observed data vs. our model predictions using spearmans rank correlations. Horned Lark collision risk was predicted to be highest in the northwestern and west-central portions of the study region with lower risk predicted elsewhere. Red-eyed Vireo collision risk was predicted to be the highest in the eastern portions of the study region and in

  8. Simulation analysis of a wind farm with different aggregated models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Li, H.; Wang, H.; Zhao, B.

    2011-01-01

    Based on a wind farm including wind turbines with squirrel cage induction generators (SCIGs), different aggregated models of a wind farm, such as a single weighted average model, a reduced-order re-scaled model, a parameter transformed model and a single weighted arithmetic model were presented, ...

  9. Modelling the future spread of native and alien congeneric species in subterranean habitats — the case of Meta cave-dwelling spiders in Great Britain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefano Mammola

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The threshold zones between the epigean and hypogean environments are generally characterized by less harsh ecological conditions than deep subterranean habitats, and usually support a greater abundance of organisms. Transitional habitats such as these should be more easily colonised by alien species, especially by those possessing exaptations suitable for subterranean life. In spite of this, few studies have been conducted to unravel the ecological dynamics between native and alien species in the habitats situated at the epigean/hypogean interface. A unique test case is offered by cave-dwelling Meta orb-weaver spiders in Great Britain (Araneae: Tetragnathidae. One species, M. menardi, is a widespread native, whilst M. bourneti is believed to be a recently introduced (1940s species, that has since become established in the south-eastern part of the country. Species distribution models (SDM were used to predict current and future habitat suitability for the two species, generating hypotheses regarding their distribution in different global warming scenarios. Model projections indicate that the two species respond to similar environmental variables. Seasonal temperature variations at the surface and elevation are the main factors explaining the distribution of both species, whereas annual precipitation, daily temperature range and limestone distribution contributed little to the model performance. It is predicted that due to climate change, there will be poleward shifts in the ranges of both species. However, the native species M. menardi will primarily be able to exploit suitable areas which will appear northward to their current distribution, and M. bourneti will colonise empty niches left available by its congeneric. The analytical framework employed in this paper may be easily adapted to other subterranean systems and species, stimulating future studies focusing on the distribution of native and alien species in extreme environments.

  10. Optimal velocity difference model for a car-following theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peng, G.H.; Cai, X.H.; Liu, C.Q.; Cao, B.F.; Tuo, M.X.

    2011-01-01

    In this Letter, we present a new optimal velocity difference model for a car-following theory based on the full velocity difference model. The linear stability condition of the new model is obtained by using the linear stability theory. The unrealistically high deceleration does not appear in OVDM. Numerical simulation of traffic dynamics shows that the new model can avoid the disadvantage of negative velocity occurred at small sensitivity coefficient λ in full velocity difference model by adjusting the coefficient of the optimal velocity difference, which shows that collision can disappear in the improved model. -- Highlights: → A new optimal velocity difference car-following model is proposed. → The effects of the optimal velocity difference on the stability of traffic flow have been explored. → The starting and braking process were carried out through simulation. → The effects of the optimal velocity difference can avoid the disadvantage of negative velocity.

  11. Connecting Different Data Sources to Assess the Interconnections between Biosecurity, Health, Welfare, and Performance in Commercial Pig Farms in Great Britain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pandolfi, Fanny; Edwards, Sandra A.; Maes, Dominiek; Kyriazakis, Ilias

    2018-01-01

    This study aimed to provide an overview of the interconnections between biosecurity, health, welfare, and performance in commercial pig farms in Great Britain. We collected on-farm data about the level of biosecurity and animal performance in 40 fattening pig farms and 28 breeding pig farms between 2015 and 2016. We identified interconnections between these data, slaughterhouse health indicators, and welfare indicator records in fattening pig farms. After achieving the connections between databases, a secondary data analysis was performed to assess the interconnections between biosecurity, health, welfare, and performance using correlation analysis, principal component analysis, and hierarchical clustering. Although we could connect the different data sources the final sample size was limited, suggesting room for improvement in database connection to conduct secondary data analyses. The farm biosecurity scores ranged from 40 to 90 out of 100, with internal biosecurity scores being lower than external biosecurity scores. Our analysis suggested several interconnections between health, welfare, and performance. The initial correlation analysis showed that the prevalence of lameness and severe tail lesions was associated with the prevalence of enzootic pneumonia-like lesions and pyaemia, and the prevalence of severe body marks was associated with several disease indicators, including peritonitis and milk spots (r > 0.3; P  0.3; P Farms from cluster 1 had lower biosecurity scores, lower ADG, and higher prevalence of several disease and welfare indicators. Farms from cluster 2 had higher biosecurity scores than cluster 1, but a higher prevalence of pigs requiring hospitalization and lameness which confirmed the correlation between biosecurity and the prevalence of pigs requiring hospitalization (r > 0.3; P Farms from cluster 3 had higher biosecurity, higher ADG, and lower prevalence for some disease and welfare indicators. The study suggests a smaller

  12. Incidence of multiple myeloma in Great Britain, Sweden, and Malmö, Sweden: the impact of differences in case ascertainment on observed incidence trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vélez, Ramón; Turesson, Ingemar; Landgren, Ola; Kristinsson, Sigurdur Y; Cuzick, Jack

    2016-01-21

    The increased incidence of multiple myeloma (MM) across China and East Asia stimulated us to examine the current rates in Great Britain, where rates increased dramatically in the second half of the 20th century. However, rates have been stable and high during this period in Malmö, Sweden, where there is a keen interest in MM. We thus assessed recent changes in MM incidence in Great Britain, Sweden overall, and Malmö, Sweden, and examined how these changes might explain recent reports of increased MM incidence across Asia. Estimation of MM incidence for Great Britain, Sweden overall, and Malmö, Sweden. MM incidence data for Great Britain (1975-2009) were obtained from Cancer Research UK and for Sweden (1970-2009) from the Swedish Cancer Registry. MM incidence data from Malmö, Sweden, were available from 1950 to 2012. Age-specific incidence of MM in Great Britain, Sweden overall, and Malmö, Sweden. MM incidence in Great Britain, Sweden overall, and Malmö increased progressively with age, even among the oldest group. The MM age-adjusted incidence (European standard population) increased by 69% from 1975-1979 to 2005-2009 in Great Britain, from 3.2/100,000 to 5.4/100,000. The largest increases occurred among those 70-79 years of age, for whom rates increased from 17.9/100,000 to 33.6/100,000; reflecting an increase of 69%. During this same period, the age-adjusted incidence (European stand population) in Sweden overall remained stable, at approximately 4.7/100,000. MM age-specific incidence is now similar in Great Britain, Sweden overall, and Malmö. We believe this is a result of improvements in case ascertainment in Great Britain, particularly among the elderly. Similar changes can be predicted to occur across Asia as improved access to healthcare contributes to better diagnosis of MM. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

  13. The Great Recession was not so Great

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Ours, J.C.

    2015-01-01

    The Great Recession is characterized by a GDP-decline that was unprecedented in the past decades. This paper discusses the implications of the Great Recession analyzing labor market data from 20 OECD countries. Comparing the Great Recession with the 1980s recession it is concluded that there is a

  14. WRF model sensitivity to land surface model and cumulus parameterization under short-term climate extremes over the southern Great Plains of the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lisi Pei; Nathan Moore; Shiyuan Zhong; Lifeng Luo; David W. Hyndman; Warren E. Heilman; Zhiqiu. Gao

    2014-01-01

    Extreme weather and climate events, especially short-term excessive drought and wet periods over agricultural areas, have received increased attention. The Southern Great Plains (SGP) is one of the largest agricultural regions in North America and features the underlying Ogallala-High Plains Aquifer system worth great economic value in large part due to production...

  15. Modeling the effects of source and path heterogeneity on ground motions of great earthquakes on the Cascadia Subduction Zone Using 3D simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delorey, Andrew; Frankel, Arthur; Liu, Pengcheng; Stephenson, William J.

    2014-01-01

    We ran finite‐difference earthquake simulations for great subduction zone earthquakes in Cascadia to model the effects of source and path heterogeneity for the purpose of improving strong‐motion predictions. We developed a rupture model for large subduction zone earthquakes based on a k−2 slip spectrum and scale‐dependent rise times by representing the slip distribution as the sum of normal modes of a vibrating membrane.Finite source and path effects were important in determining the distribution of strong motions through the locations of the hypocenter, subevents, and crustal structures like sedimentary basins. Some regions in Cascadia appear to be at greater risk than others during an event due to the geometry of the Cascadia fault zone relative to the coast and populated regions. The southern Oregon coast appears to have increased risk because it is closer to the locked zone of the Cascadia fault than other coastal areas and is also in the path of directivity amplification from any rupture propagating north to south in that part of the subduction zone, and the basins in the Puget Sound area are efficiently amplified by both north and south propagating ruptures off the coast of western Washington. We find that the median spectral accelerations at 5 s period from the simulations are similar to that of the Zhao et al. (2006) ground‐motion prediction equation, although our simulations predict higher amplitudes near the region of greatest slip and in the sedimentary basins, such as the Seattle basin.

  16. Large-scale pesticide monitoring across Great Barrier Reef catchments--Paddock to Reef Integrated Monitoring, Modelling and Reporting Program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Rachael; Middlebrook, Rachael; Turner, Ryan; Huggins, Rae; Vardy, Suzanne; Warne, Michael

    2012-01-01

    The transport and potential toxicity of pesticides in Queensland (QLD) catchments from agricultural areas is a key concern for the Great Barrier Reef (GBR). In 2009, a pesticide monitoring program was established as part of the Australian and QLD Governments' Reef Plan (2009). Samples were collected at eight End of System sites (above the tidal zone) and three sub-catchment sites. At least two pesticides were detected at every site including insecticides, fungicides, herbicides, and the Reef Plan's (2009) five priority photosystem II (PSII) herbicides (diuron, atrazine, hexazinone, tebuthiuron and ametryn). Diuron, atrazine and metolachlor exceeded Australian and New Zealand water quality guideline trigger values (TVs) at eight sites. Accounting for PSII herbicide mixtures increased the estimated toxicity and led to larger exceedances of the TVs at more sites. This study demonstrates the widespread contamination of pesticides, particularly PSII herbicides, across the GBR catchment area which discharges to the GBR. Crown Copyright © 2011. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Type A natural resource damage assessment models for Great Lakes environments (NRDAM/GLE) and coastal and marine environments (NRDAM/CME)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    French, D.P.; Reed, M.

    1993-01-01

    A computer model of the physical fates, biological effects, and economic damages resulting from releases of oil and other hazardous materials has been developed by ASA to be used in Type A natural resource damage assessments under the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act of 1980 (CERCLA). Natural Resource Damage Assessment Models for Great Lakes Environments (NRDAM/GLE) and for Coastal and Marine Environments (NRDAM/GLE) and for Coastal and Marine Environments (NRDAM/CME) will become available. These models will also support NOAA's damage assessment regulations under the Oil Pollution Act of 1990. The physical and biological models are three-dimensional. Direct mortality from toxic concentrations and oiling, impacts of habitat loss, and food web losses are included in the model. Estimation of natural resource damages is based both on the lost value of injured resources and on the costs for restoration or replacement of those resources. A coupled geographical information system (GIS) allows gridded representation of complex coastal boundaries, variable bathymetry, shoreline types, and multiple biological habitats. The models contain environmental, geographical, chemical, toxicological, biological, restoration and economic databases with the necessary information to estimate damages. Chemical and toxicological data are included for about 470 chemicals and oils. Biological data are unique to 77 coastal and marine plus 11 Great Lakes provinces, and to habitat type. Restoration and economic valuations are also regionally specific

  18. The dose of HBV genome contained plasmid has a great impact on HBV persistence in hydrodynamic injection mouse model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Lei; Li, Sheng; Zhou, Yun; Yang, Lu; Zhou, Di; Yang, Yan; Lu, Mengji; Yang, Dongliang; Song, Jingjiao

    2017-10-25

    Hydrodynamic injection (HI) of hepatitis B virus (HBV) mouse model is an useful tool for HBV related research in vivo. However, only 40% of C57/BL6 mice injected with 10 μg HBV genome contained plasmid (pAAV-HBV1.2), serum HBsAg more than 6 months and none of the BALB/c mice injected with 10 μg pAAV-HBV1.2 plasmid DNA, serum HBsAg positive more than 4 weeks in the previous study. In this study, C57/BL6 and BALB/c mice were hydrodynamic injected with different doses of pAAV-HBV1.2 plasmid DNA. HBV related serum markers were detected by ELISA. ALT levels in the serum were measured using full automated biochemistry analyzer. HBcAg positive cells in the liver were detected by immunohistochemical staining. The mRNA levels of IRF3, ISGs including ISG15, OAS, PKR and immune factors including IFNγ, TNFα, TGFβ, IL-6, IL-10, PDL1 in liver of the mice were quantified by qRT-PCR. The results showed that the mice injected with 100 μg high-concentration or 1 μg low-concentration of pAAV-HBV1.2 plasmid DNA did not excert dominant influence on HBV persistence. In contrast, injection of 5 μg intermediate-dose of pAAV-HBV1.2 plasmid DNA led to significant prolonged HBsAg expression and HBV persistence in both C57/BL6 (80% of the mice with HBsAg positive more than 6 months) and BALB/c (60% of the mice with HBsAg positive more than 3 months) mice. IFNγ was significant up-regulated in liver of the mice injected with 1 μg or 100 μg pAAV-HBV1.2 plasmid DNA. TNFα was up-regulated significantly in liver of the mice injected with 100 μg pAAV-HBV1.2 plasmid DNA. Moreover, PDL1 was significant up-regulated in liver of the mice injected with 5 μg pAAV-HBV1.2 plasmid DNA. In this paper we demonstrated that, in the HBV HI mouse model, the concentration of injected pAAV-HBV1.2 plasmid DNA contributes to the diverse kinetics of HBsAg and HBeAg in the serum as well as HBcAg expression level in the liver, which then determined the HBV persisternce, while the antiviral

  19. Potential for production of ‘mini-mussels’ in Great Belt (Denmark) evaluated on basis of actual and modeled growth of young mussels Mytilus edulis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Riisgård, Hans Ulrik; Lundgreen, Kim; Larsen, Poul Scheel

    2014-01-01

    The present study is a first step towards evaluation of the potential for line-mussel production in the Great Belt region between the Kattegat and Baltic Sea, Denmark. We present experimental results for actual growth rates of juvenile/adult mussels Mytilus edulis in suspended net bags in terms......) as a function of dry weight of soft parts (W, g) by a previously developed simple bioenergetic growth model μ = aW −0.34. Results were generally in good agreement with the model which assumes the prevailing average chlorophyll a concentration at field sites to essentially account for the nutrition. Our studies...

  20. Variability of morphometric caracteristics of one-year seedlings of different half-sib European White Elm (Ulmus effusa Wild. from the Great War Island

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Devetaković, J.

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available European White Elm is recognized as a rare and endangered species in the forest fund of the Republic of Serbia. During the past century massive drying of elms occurred and the indications of their extinction appeared, which consequently led to a reduction in genetic diversity and the danger of genetic drift. In the area of the Great War Island near Belgrade we found 56 trees of European White Elm that are spatially divided into three subpopulations. In order to assess the genetic potential of European White Elm in the Great War Island and to define adequate conservation measures variability of 14 selected test trees progeny was rated. Results shows that the satisfactory variability within the popoulation exists, which is a good basis for the conservation of genepool available.

  1. Simulation analysis of a wind farm with different aggregated models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Li, H.; Wang, H.; Zhao, B.

    2011-01-01

    Based on a wind farm including wind turbines with squirrel cage induction generators (SCIGs), different aggregated models of a wind farm, such as a single weighted average model, a reduced-order re-scaled model, a parameter transformed model and a single weighted arithmetic model were presented, ...... by using Matlab/Simulink, based on the conditions of the wind speed disturbance and three-phase short-circuit fault at the point of connected grid. The results have shown that the presented wind farm models are correct and valid.......Based on a wind farm including wind turbines with squirrel cage induction generators (SCIGs), different aggregated models of a wind farm, such as a single weighted average model, a reduced-order re-scaled model, a parameter transformed model and a single weighted arithmetic model were presented......, as well as the detailed SCIG wind turbine model. Regarding for the two cases of a wind farm including SCIGs with identical parameters and different parameters, the dynamic characteristics and transient performances of the presented wind farm using different aggregated models were studied and compared...

  2. Great Lakes Science Center

    Data.gov (United States)

    Federal Laboratory Consortium — Since 1927, Great Lakes Science Center (GLSC) research has provided critical information for the sound management of Great Lakes fish populations and other important...

  3. Analysis Models for Polymer Composites Across Different Length Scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Camanho, Pedro P.; Arteiro, Albertino

    This chapter presents the analysis models, developed at different length scales, for the prediction of inelastic deformation and fracture of polymer composite materials reinforced by unidirectional fibers. Three different length scales are covered. Micro-mechanical models are used to understand in detail the effects of the constituents on the response of the composite material, and to support the development of analysis models based on homogenized representations of composite materials. Meso-mechanical models are used to predict the strength of composite structural components under general loading conditions. Finally, macro-mechanical models based on Finite Fracture Mechanics, which enable fast strength predictions of simple structural details, are discussed.

  4. Identification of positive selection in genes is greatly improved by using experimentally informed site-specific models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bloom, Jesse D

    2017-01-17

    Sites of positive selection are identified by comparing observed evolutionary patterns to those expected under a null model for evolution in the absence of such selection. For protein-coding genes, the most common null model is that nonsynonymous and synonymous mutations fix at equal rates; this unrealistic model has limited power to detect many interesting forms of selection. I describe a new approach that uses a null model based on experimental measurements of a gene's site-specific amino-acid preferences generated by deep mutational scanning in the lab. This null model makes it possible to identify both diversifying selection for repeated amino-acid change and differential selection for mutations to amino acids that are unexpected given the measurements made in the lab. I show that this approach identifies sites of adaptive substitutions in four genes (lactamase, Gal4, influenza nucleoprotein, and influenza hemagglutinin) far better than a comparable method that simply compares the rates of nonsynonymous and synonymous substitutions. As rapid increases in biological data enable increasingly nuanced descriptions of the constraints on individual protein sites, approaches like the one here can improve our ability to identify many interesting forms of selection in natural sequences. This article was reviewed by Sebastian Maurer-Stroh, Olivier Tenaillon, and Tal Pupko. All three reviewers are members of the Biology Direct editorial board.

  5. The great roundleaf bat (Hipposideros armiger as a good model for cold-induced browning of intra-abdominal white adipose tissue.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yao Wang

    Full Text Available Inducing beige fat from white adipose tissue (WAT is considered to be a shortcut to weight loss and increasingly becoming a key area in research into treatments for obesity and related diseases. However, currently, animal models of beige fat are restricted to rodents, where subcutaneous adipose tissue (sWAT, benign WAT is more liable to develop into the beige fat under specific activators than the intra-abdominal adipose tissue (aWAT, malignant WAT that is the major source of obesity related diseases in humans.Here we induced beige fat by cold exposure in two species of bats, the great roundleaf bat (Hipposideros armiger and the rickett's big-footed bat (Myotis ricketti, and compared the molecular and morphological changes with those seen in the mouse. Expression of thermogenic genes (Ucp1 and Pgc1a was measured by RT-qPCR and adipocyte morphology examined by HE staining at three adipose locations, sWAT, aWAT and iBAT (interscapular brown adipose tissue.Expression of Ucp1 and Pgc1a was significantly upregulated, by 729 and 23 fold, respectively, in aWAT of the great roundleaf bat after exposure to 10°C for 7 days. Adipocyte diameters of WATs became significantly reduced and the white adipocytes became brown-like in morphology. In mice, similar changes were found in the sWAT, but much lower amounts of changes in aWAT were seen. Interestingly, the rickett's big-footed bat did not show such a tendency in beige fat.The great roundleaf bat is potentially a good animal model for human aWAT browning research. Combined with rodent models, this model should be helpful for finding therapies for reducing harmful aWAT in humans.

  6. Discriminating Models of Different Sized Color Geometric Figures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y A Chudina

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The data obtained by us in two experiments, where the different sized color geometric figures were used as stimuli, are described in the article. We have built configurative and categorical discriminating models differing by formal and intensional characteristics. The models reflect the different ways of visual gestalt generation: additive and non-additive principles of consolidation of neural mechanisms analyzing the visual features of the picture.

  7. OSGM02: A new model for converting GPS-derived heights to local height datums in Great Britain and Ireland

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Iliffe, J.C.; Ziebart, M.; Cross, P.A.

    2003-01-01

    The background to the recent computation of a new vertical datum model for the British Isles (OSGM02) is described After giving a brief description of the computational techniques and the data sets used for the derivation of the gravimetric geoid, the paper focuses on the fitting of this surface...

  8. Quantifying restoration effectiveness using multi-scale habitat models: Implications for sage-grouse in the Great Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robert S. Arkle; David S. Pilliod; Steven E. Hanser; Matthew L. Brooks; Jeanne C. Chambers; James B. Grace; Kevin C. Knutson; David A. Pyke; Justin L. Welty; Troy A. Wirth

    2014-01-01

    A recurrent challenge in the conservation of wide-ranging, imperiled species is understanding which habitats to protect and whether we are capable of restoring degraded landscapes. For Greater Sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus), a species of conservation concern in the western United States, we approached this problem by developing multi-scale empirical models of...

  9. ECONOMETRIC APPROACH TO DIFFERENCE EQUATIONS MODELING OF EXCHANGE RATES CHANGES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Josip Arnerić

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Time series models that are commonly used in econometric modeling are autoregressive stochastic linear models (AR and models of moving averages (MA. Mentioned models by their structure are actually stochastic difference equations. Therefore, the objective of this paper is to estimate difference equations containing stochastic (random component. Estimated models of time series will be used to forecast observed data in the future. Namely, solutions of difference equations are closely related to conditions of stationary time series models. Based on the fact that volatility is time varying in high frequency data and that periods of high volatility tend to cluster, the most successful and popular models in modeling time varying volatility are GARCH type models and their variants. However, GARCH models will not be analyzed because the purpose of this research is to predict the value of the exchange rate in the levels within conditional mean equation and to determine whether the observed variable has a stable or explosive time path. Based on the estimated difference equation it will be examined whether Croatia is implementing a stable policy of exchange rates.

  10. Biodiversity and species-environment relationships of the demersal fish assemblage at the Great Meteor Seamount (subtropical NE Atlantic), sampled by different trawls

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fock, H.; Uiblein, F.; Köster, Fritz

    2002-01-01

    information, a grand total of 46 species was found associated with the Great Meteor Seamount. Diversity was higher in 1967 and 1970 (Shannon's diversity: H'=2.5 and 1.6) than in 1998 (H'=0.9). Species-environment relationships are discussed in terms of a sound-scattering layer-interception hypothesis, i.......e. utilisation of prey from a diurnally moving sound-scattering layer for the bentho-pelagic community. This is probably augmented by concentration effects in a circular current around the seamount (Taylor-column). Long-term changes are discussed with respect to a decrease in biodiversity due to considerable...

  11. Did the Great Recession Downsize Immigrants and Native-Born Americans Differently? Unemployment Differentials by Nativity, Race and Gender from 2007 to 2013 in the U.S.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sharron Xuanren Wang

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available We use data from the Current Population Survey from 2007 and 2013 to investigate demographic differentials in unemployment during the Great Recession in the U.S. Although our analysis is primarily exploratory and descriptive, our major research objective is to illuminate the unemployment differential between the foreign born and the native born. The findings indicate that during the height of the Great Recession, the foreign born had higher unemployment rates than the native born. However, this differential is statistically explained by their observed characteristics, such as race/ethnicity, gender, age and education. With the net of those variables and a few other demographic covariates, foreign born workers as an overall group actually had somewhat lower chances of being unemployed than native born workers. This finding is discussed in terms of the selectivity of immigrant workers and the possibility that they are somewhat more immediately dependent on having a job. After breaking down the foreign born into major racial/ethnic groups, the results suggest that foreign-born blacks and foreign-born Hispanics are particularly selective with the net of their observed characteristics. The possible sources of such differentials by race/ethnicity and by gender are discussed.

  12. Comparison of DNA strand-break simulated with different DNA models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xie, Wenzhang; Li, Junli; Qiu, Rui; Yan, Congchong; Zeng, Zhi; Li, Chunyan

    2013-01-01

    Full text of the publication follows. In Monte Carlo simulation of DNA damage, the geometric model of DNA is of great importance. To study the influence of DNA model on the simulation of DNA damage, three DNA models were created in this paper. They were a volume model and two atomic models with different parameters. Direct DNA strand-break induced by low-energy electrons were simulated respectively with the three models. The results show that most of the energy depositions in the DNA segments do not lead to strand-breaks. The simple single strand-break (SSB) tends to be the predominant damage type, and the contribution of complex double strand-break (DSB) to the total DSB cannot be neglected. Among the yields of all the three DNA target models applied here, the yields of the volume model are the highest, the yields of the atomic model with double van der Waals radii (r) take the second place, whereas the yields of the atomic model with single r come last. On average, the ratios of SSB yields are approximately equivalent to the corresponding ratios of the models' volume. However, there seems to be no clear relationship between the DSB yields and the models' volume. (authors)

  13. Nonstandard Finite Difference Method Applied to a Linear Pharmacokinetics Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oluwaseun Egbelowo

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available We extend the nonstandard finite difference method of solution to the study of pharmacokinetic–pharmacodynamic models. Pharmacokinetic (PK models are commonly used to predict drug concentrations that drive controlled intravenous (I.V. transfers (or infusion and oral transfers while pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic (PD interaction models are used to provide predictions of drug concentrations affecting the response of these clinical drugs. We structure a nonstandard finite difference (NSFD scheme for the relevant system of equations which models this pharamcokinetic process. We compare the results obtained to standard methods. The scheme is dynamically consistent and reliable in replicating complex dynamic properties of the relevant continuous models for varying step sizes. This study provides assistance in understanding the long-term behavior of the drug in the system, and validation of the efficiency of the nonstandard finite difference scheme as the method of choice.

  14. On distinguishing different models of a class of emergent Universe ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Souvik Ghose

    2018-02-20

    Feb 20, 2018 ... Department of Physics, Surendra Institute of Engineering & Management, Siliguri 734 009, India. E-mail: mrsghose@gmail.com ... to study the viability of the model in late time. In this paper, we discuss the viability of all the ... different EU models from union2 data and study of the late-time behaviour of these ...

  15. Identification of differences in health impact modelling of salt reduction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M.A.H. Hendriksen (Marieke); J.M. Geleijnse (Marianne); Van Raaij, J.M.A. (Joop M. A.); F.P. Cappuccio (Francesco); Cobiac, L.C. (Linda C.); Scarborough, P. (Peter); W.J. Nusselder (Wilma); Jaccard, A. (Abbygail); H.C. Boshuizen (Hendriek)

    2017-01-01

    textabstractWe examined whether specific input data and assumptions explain outcome differences in otherwise comparable health impact assessment models. Seven population health models estimating the impact of salt reduction on morbidity and mortality in western populations were compared on four sets

  16. Identification of differences in health impact modelling of salt reduction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hendriksen, Marieke A.H.; Geleijnse, Johanna M.; Raaij, Van Joop M.A.; Cappuccio, Francesco P.; Cobiac, Linda C.; Scarborough, Peter; Nusselder, Wilma J.; Jaccard, Abbygail; Boshuizen, Hendriek C.

    2017-01-01

    We examined whether specific input data and assumptions explain outcome differences in otherwise comparable health impact assessment models. Seven population health models estimating the impact of salt reduction on morbidity and mortality in western populations were compared on four sets of key

  17. Identification of differences in health impact modelling of salt reduction.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hendriksen, Marieke A H; Geleijnse, Johanna M; van Raaij, Joop M A; Cappuccio, Francesco P; Cobiac, Linda C; Scarborough, Peter; Nusselder, Wilma J; Jaccard, Abbygail; Boshuizen, Hendriek C

    2017-01-01

    We examined whether specific input data and assumptions explain outcome differences in otherwise comparable health impact assessment models. Seven population health models estimating the impact of salt reduction on morbidity and mortality in western populations were compared on four sets of key

  18. VERIFICATION OF GEAR DYNAMIC MODEL IN DIFFERENT OPERATING CONDITIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Grzegorz PERUŃ

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available The article presents the results of verification of the drive system dynamic model with gear. Tests were carried out on the real object in different operating conditions. For the same assumed conditions were also carried out simulation studies. Comparison of the results obtained from those two series of tests helped determine the suitability of the model and verify the possibility of replacing experimental research by simulations with use of dynamic model.

  19. Formation of Mobilization Model and Macroeconomic Dynamics of the USSR During the First Five-Year Period and the Great Patriotic War

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cheremisinov Georgiy Aleksandrovich

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available The research of origin and functioning of mobilization model of economy is possible on the basis of the hypothesis about the government entrepreneurship as a typological sign of Russian economy development, the concept of threshold changes of macroeconomic dynamics, methodology of a chronotope and the theory of interrelation of the government organization of accumulation of the capital, industrialization, militarization, economic and territorial expansion of state power. Socio-economic reforming in our country was connected with threshold levels of impact of the government on economy that is confirmed by the analysis of macroeconomic conditions of emergence of the centralized planned management of a national economy. System transformations of the Russian economy to the revolutionary-military period (1914-1920 in the second half of the 1920s – early 1930s, in the period of the Great Patriotic War were carried out by the ruling power for the purpose of increase in quantity of the benefits, services, factors of production appropriated, distributed or used in its interests. The level of the centralized withdrawal of resources on irretrievable military expenses and on investments into industrialization of the power defined macroeconomic dynamics and extent of reorganization of a market mechanism of regulation of a domestic national economy. The mobilization model of directive planned management of a national economy created as a result of reforms of the beginning of the 1930s provided an economic basis of the USSR victory in the Great Patriotic War.

  20. The Role of Surface Energy Exchange for Simulating Wind Inflow: An Evaluation of Multiple Land Surface Models in WRF for the Southern Great Plains Site Field Campaign Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wharton, Sonia [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Simpson, Matthew [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Osuna, Jessica [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Newman, Jennifer [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Biraud, Sebastien [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2016-05-01

    The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used to investigate choice of land surface model (LSM) on the near-surface wind profile, including heights reached by multi-megawatt wind turbines. Simulations of wind profiles and surface energy fluxes were made using five LSMs of varying degrees of sophistication in dealing with soil-plant-atmosphere feedbacks for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Climate Research Facility’s Southern Great Plains (SGP) Central Facility in Oklahoma. Surface-flux and wind-profile measurements were available for validation. The WRF model was run for three two-week periods during which varying canopy and meteorological conditions existed. The LSMs predicted a wide range of energy-flux and wind-shear magnitudes even during the cool autumn period when we expected less variability. Simulations of energy fluxes varied in accuracy by model sophistication, whereby LSMs with very simple or no soil-plant-atmosphere feedbacks were the least accurate; however, the most complex models did not consistently produce more accurate results. Errors in wind shear also were sensitive to LSM choice and were partially related to the accuracy of energy flux data. The variability of LSM performance was relatively high, suggesting that LSM representation of energy fluxes in the WRF model remains a significant source of uncertainty for simulating wind turbine inflow conditions.

  1. The GREAT-ER model in China: Evaluating the risk of both treated and untreated wastewater discharges and a consideration to the future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackson, Benjamin; Jones, Kevin; Sweetman, Andrew

    2016-04-01

    As a result of rapid economic development, the production and usage of chemicals in China has risen significantly. This has resulted in China's environment becoming degraded. The Chinese government has attempted to ease these problems with significant investment towards upgrading the wastewater network. These efforts have initially focused upon large cities; progressing towards smaller populations within the most recent 5 year plan. However rural populations were largely overlooked, ~90% of rural settlements do not have treatment facilities for their wastewater. The next (13th) five year plan is a great opportunity to improve upon wastewater infrastructure. This transition is particularly important and it is essential for the government to prioritise settlements to provide treatment facilities and to improve water quality in receiving waters. This study focuses upon the use of a catchment model in order make progress towards this goal. A reliable model which can capture the complexity of the catchment is needed, but one without complexity in itself, in order for it to be developed and validated without an excessive requirement for data. The Geo-referenced Regional Exposure Assessment Tool for European Rivers (GREAT-ER) model is a catchment-scale stochastic-deterministic GIS model. It is primarily used for higher-tier chemical risk assessment. Emissions are from point source only and are calculated based upon population and calculated emission rates per capita. Dilution and transportation are determined using low-flow statistics within each stretch; calculated based upon catchment soil and topographic properties. Removal of the contaminant can occur prior to emission and in-stream. The lowest tier methodology applies a simple 1st-order removal rate and a flat percentage removal for in-stream and sewage treatment work removal respectively. The data requirements are relatively low, although still challenging for many situations. Many authors have reported reasonable

  2. Differences between Western and African models of psychiatric illness

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    African and Western illness models differ dramatically. The overwhelming majority of black psychiatric patients are exposed to both Western psychiatry and traditional healing and somehow have to integrate the different approaches to causation and management of their problem. This case study compared the assess~entof.

  3. Modeling of the bipolar transistor under different pulse ionizing radiations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Antonova, A. M.; Skorobogatov, P. K.

    2017-01-01

    This paper describes a 2D model of the bipolar transistor 2T312 under gamma, X-ray and laser pulse ionizing radiations. Both the Finite Element Discretization and Semiconductor module of Comsol 5.1 are used. There is an analysis of energy deposition in this device under different radiations and the results of transient ionizing current response for some different conditions.

  4. Research on System Coherence Evolution of Different Environmental Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Si-Qi; Lu, Jing-Bin; Li, Hong; Liu, Ji-Ping; Zhang, Xiao-Ru; Liu, Han; Liang, Yu; Ma, Ji; Liu, Xiao-Jing; Wu, Xiang-Yao

    2017-12-01

    In this paper, we have studied the evolution curve of two-level atomic system that the initial state is excited state. At the different of environmental reservoir models, which include the single Lorentzian, ideal photon band-gap, double Lorentzian and square Lorentzian reservoir, we researched the influence of these environmental reservoir models on the evolution of energy level population. At static no modulation, comparing the four environmental models, the atomic energy level population oscillation of square Lorentzian reservoir model is fastest, and the atomic system decoherence is slowest. Under dynamic modulation, comparing the photon band-gap model with the single Lorentzian reservoir model, no matter what form of dynamic modulation, the time of atoms decay to the ground state is longer for the photonic band-gap model. These conclusions make the idea of using the environmental change to modulate the coherent evolution of atomic system become true.

  5. Pan evaporation modeling using six different heuristic computing methods in different climates of China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Lunche; Kisi, Ozgur; Zounemat-Kermani, Mohammad; Li, Hui

    2017-01-01

    Pan evaporation (Ep) plays important roles in agricultural water resources management. One of the basic challenges is modeling Ep using limited climatic parameters because there are a number of factors affecting the evaporation rate. This study investigated the abilities of six different soft computing methods, multi-layer perceptron (MLP), generalized regression neural network (GRNN), fuzzy genetic (FG), least square support vector machine (LSSVM), multivariate adaptive regression spline (MARS), adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference systems with grid partition (ANFIS-GP), and two regression methods, multiple linear regression (MLR) and Stephens and Stewart model (SS) in predicting monthly Ep. Long-term climatic data at various sites crossing a wide range of climates during 1961-2000 are used for model development and validation. The results showed that the models have different accuracies in different climates and the MLP model performed superior to the other models in predicting monthly Ep at most stations using local input combinations (for example, the MAE (mean absolute errors), RMSE (root mean square errors), and determination coefficient (R2) are 0.314 mm/day, 0.405 mm/day and 0.988, respectively for HEB station), while GRNN model performed better in Tibetan Plateau (MAE, RMSE and R2 are 0.459 mm/day, 0.592 mm/day and 0.932, respectively). The accuracies of above models ranked as: MLP, GRNN, LSSVM, FG, ANFIS-GP, MARS and MLR. The overall results indicated that the soft computing techniques generally performed better than the regression methods, but MLR and SS models can be more preferred at some climatic zones instead of complex nonlinear models, for example, the BJ (Beijing), CQ (Chongqing) and HK (Haikou) stations. Therefore, it can be concluded that Ep could be successfully predicted using above models in hydrological modeling studies.

  6. Microstructure and cross-sectional shape of limb bones in Great Horned Owls and Red-tailed Hawks: how do these features relate to differences in flight and hunting behavior?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Crystal A Marelli

    Full Text Available The Red-tailed Hawk and Great Horned Owl are two species of raptor that are similar in body size, diet, and habitat. Both species use their hindlimbs during hunting, but differ in foot morphology, how they approach and immobilize prey, and the average size of prey captured. They also differ in primary flight style: the Red-tailed Hawk uses static soaring and the Great Horned Owl uses flap-gliding. The objectives of this study were to characterize the microstructure and cross-sectional shape of limb bones of these species and examine the relationship with flight and hunting behaviors. The mid-shaft of six limb bones from six individuals of each species was sampled. The degree of bone laminarity (proportion of circular primary vascular canals and cross-sectional geometric parameters were calculated. In both species, the humerus and femur exhibited features that suggest high resistance to torsional loading, whereas the tibiotarsus and phalanges had a shape more likely to resist compression and bending in a specific plane. The femur of the Red-tailed Hawk exhibited higher laminarity and larger polar moment of area than that of the Great Horned Owl. The tibiotarsus was more elliptical than that of the Great Horned Owl. The hawk approaches prey from a more horizontal axis, takes prey of greater mass, and is more likely to pursue prey on the ground, which could potentially be causing more torsional loads on the femur and bending loads on the tibiotarsus. In addition, differences in polar moment of area of the phalanges between the species could relate to differences in foot morphology or digit length. The humerus and ulna of the flap-gliding Great Horned Owl are more elliptical than the static soaring Red-tailed Hawk, a shape that may better resist the bending loads associated with a larger amount of flapping.

  7. Diffusion versus linear ballistic accumulation: different models for response time with different conclusions about psychological mechanisms?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heathcote, Andrew; Hayes, Brett

    2012-06-01

    Two similar classes of evidence-accumulation model have dominated theorizing about rapid binary choice: diffusion models and racing accumulator pairs. Donkin, Brown, Heathcote, and Wagenmakers (2011) examined mimicry between the Ratcliff diffusion (RD; Ratcliff & Smith, 2004) and the linear ballistic accumulator (LBA; Brown & Heathcote, 2008), the 2 least similar models from each class that provide a comprehensive account of a set benchmark phenomena in rapid binary choice. Where conditions differed only in the rate of evidence accumulation (the most common case in past research), simulations showed the models supported equivalent psychological inferences. In contrast, differences in 2 other parameters of key psychological interest, response caution (the amount of information required for a decision), and nondecision time, traded-off when fitting 1 model to data simulated from the other, implying the potential for divergent inferences about latent cognitive processes. However, Donkin, Brown, Heathcote, and Wagenmakers did not find such inconsistencies between fits of the RD and LBA models in a survey of data sets from paradigms using a range of experimental manipulations. We examined a further data set, collected by Dutilh, Vandekerckhove, Tuerlinckx, and Wagenmakers (2009), which used a manipulation not surveyed by Donkin, Brown, Heathcote, and Wagenmakers's practice. Dutilh et al.'s RD model fits indicated that practice had large effects on all three types of parameters. We show that in this case the LBA provides a different and simpler account of practice effects. Implications for evidence accumulation modelling are discussed.

  8. 3D City Models with Different Temporal Characteristica

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bodum, Lars

    2005-01-01

    -built dynamic or a model suitable for visualization in realtime, it is required that modelling is done with level-of-detail and simplification of both the aesthetics and the geometry. If a temporal characteristic is combined with a visual characteristic, the situation can easily be seen as a t/v matrix where t....... Therefore it is important that temporal information is attached to the different parts of a city model so that it can be used as part of metadata for city models. Another and just as important use of time is related to the temporal characteristics of the 3D city models. There is a huge difference between...... is the temporal characteristic or representation and v is the visual characteristic or representation....

  9. Using ARM Observations to Evaluate Climate Model Simulations of Land-Atmosphere Coupling on the U.S. Southern Great Plains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phillips, Thomas J.; Klein, Stephen A.; Ma, Hsi-Yen; Tang, Qi; Xie, Shaocheng; Williams, Ian N.; Santanello, Joseph A.; Cook, David R.; Torn, Margaret S.

    2017-11-01

    Several independent measurements of warm-season soil moisture and surface atmospheric variables recorded at the ARM Southern Great Plains (SGP) research facility are used to estimate the terrestrial component of land-atmosphere coupling (LAC) strength and its regional uncertainty. The observations reveal substantial variation in coupling strength, as estimated from three soil moisture measurements at a single site, as well as across six other sites having varied soil and land cover types. The observational estimates then serve as references for evaluating SGP terrestrial coupling strength in the Community Atmospheric Model coupled to the Community Land Model. These coupled model components are operated in both a free-running mode and in a controlled configuration, where the atmospheric and land states are reinitialized daily, so that they do not drift very far from observations. Although the controlled simulation deviates less from the observed surface climate than its free-running counterpart, the terrestrial LAC in both configurations is much stronger and displays less spatial variability than the SGP observational estimates. Preliminary investigation of vegetation leaf area index (LAI) substituted for soil moisture suggests that the overly strong coupling between model soil moisture and surface atmospheric variables is associated with too much evaporation from bare ground and too little from the vegetation cover. These results imply that model surface characteristics such as LAI, as well as the physical parameterizations involved in the coupling of the land and atmospheric components, are likely to be important sources of the problematical LAC behaviors.

  10. Defining wet season water quality target concentrations for ecosystem conservation using empirical light attenuation models: A case study in the Great Barrier Reef (Australia).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petus, Caroline; Devlin, Michelle; Teixera da Silva, Eduardo; Lewis, Stephen; Waterhouse, Jane; Wenger, Amelia; Bainbridge, Zoe; Tracey, Dieter

    2018-05-01

    Optically active water quality components (OAC) transported by flood plumes to nearshore marine environments affect light levels. The definition of minimum OAC concentrations that must be maintained to sustain sufficient light levels for conservation of light-dependant coastal ecosystems exposed to flood waters is necessary to guide management actions in adjacent catchments. In this study, a framework for defining OAC target concentrations using empirical light attenuation models is proposed and applied to the Wet Tropics region of the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) (Queensland, Australia). This framework comprises several steps: (i) light attenuation (Kd(PAR)) profiles and OAC measurements, including coloured dissolved organic matter (CDOM), chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) and suspended particulate matter (SPM) concentrations collected in flood waters; (ii) empirical light attenuation models used to define the contribution of CDOM, Chl-a and SPM to the light attenuation, and; (iii) translation of empirical models into manageable OAC target concentrations specific for wet season conditions. Results showed that (i) Kd(PAR) variability in the Wet Tropics flood waters is driven primarily by SPM and CDOM, with a lower contribution from Chl-a (r2 = 0.5, p reefs and seagrass ecosystems exposed to 'brownish' flood waters. Additional data will be collected to validate the light attenuation models and the wet season target concentration which in future will be incorporated into wider catchment modelling efforts to improve coastal water quality in the Wet Tropics and the GBR. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Differences in Family Planning Services by Rural-urban Geography: Survey of Title X-Supported Clinics In Great Plains and Midwestern States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martins, Summer L; Starr, Katherine A; Hellerstedt, Wendy L; Gilliam, Melissa L

    2016-03-01

    Understanding the nature of rural-urban variation in U.S. family planning services would help address disparities in unmet contraceptive need. In 2012, some 558 Title X-supported clinics in 16 Great Plains and Midwestern states were surveyed. Rural-urban commuting area (RUCA) codes were used to categorize clinic locations as urban, large rural city, small rural town or isolated small rural town. Bivariate analyses examined key domains of service provision by RUCA category and clinic type. The proportion of clinics offering walk-in appointments was lower in isolated small rural towns (47%) than in the other RUCA categories (67-73%). Results were similar for sites that do not specialize in family planning or reproductive health, but no variation was seen among specialty clinics. Overall, availability of evening or weekend appointments varied in a linear fashion, falling from 73% in urban areas to 29% in isolated small rural towns. On-site provision of most hormonal methods was most common in urban areas and least common in isolated small rural towns, while provision of nonhormonal methods was similar across RUCA categories. Sixty percent of clinics provided IUDs or implants. For clinics that did not, the only barriers that varied geographically were low IUD demand and lack of trained IUD providers; these barriers were most common in isolated rural towns (42% and 70%, respectively). While important characteristics, such as clinics' specialization (or lack thereof), are linked to the provision of family planning services, geographic disparities exist. Copyright © 2016 by the Guttmacher Institute.

  12. Two velocity difference model for a car following theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ge, H. X.; Cheng, R. J.; Li, Z. P.

    2008-09-01

    In the light of the optimal velocity model, a two velocity difference model for a car-following theory is put forward considering navigation in modern traffic. To our knowledge, the model is an improvement over the previous ones theoretically, because it considers more aspects in the car-following process than others. Then we investigate the property of the model using linear and nonlinear analyses. The Korteweg-de Vries equation (for short, the KdV equation) near the neutral stability line and the modified Korteweg-de Vries equation (for short, the mKdV equation) around the critical point are derived by applying the reductive perturbation method. The traffic jam could be thus described by the KdV soliton and the kink-anti-kink soliton for the KdV equation and mKdV equation, respectively. Numerical simulations are made to verify the model, and good results are obtained with the new model.

  13. Does style matter? A cross-cultural study into the influence of differences in style dimensions on the persuasiveness of business newsletters in Great Britain and the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hendriks, B.C.; Pair, R.G. le; Meurs, W.F.J. van; Korzilius, H.P.L.M.; Damen, S.; Bülow-Møller, A.

    2005-01-01

    An important consideration in the field of intercultural communication is the difference in communication styles between cultures. Gudykunst and Ting-Toomey (1988) distinguish four dimensions of communication styles: direct - indirect, instrumental – affective, personal – contextual and succinct –

  14. Does style matter? : A cross-cultural study into the influence of differences in style dimensions on the persuasiveness of business newsletters in Great Britain and the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hendriks, B.C.; Pair, R.G. le; Meurs, F. van; Korzilius, H.P.L.M.; Damen, S.

    2005-01-01

    An important consideration in the field of intercultural communication is the difference in communication styles between cultures. Gudykunst and Ting-Toomey (1988) distinguish four dimensions of communication styles: direct - indirect, instrumental – affective, personal – contextual and succinct –

  15. Using decision models to enhance investigations of individual differences in cognitive neuroscience

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Corey N White

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available There is great interest in relating individual differences in cognitive processing to activation of neural systems. The general process involves relating measures of task performance like reaction times or accuracy to brain activity to identify individual differences in neural processing. One limitation of this approach is that measures like reaction times can be affected by multiple components of processing. For instance, some individuals might have higher accuracy in a memory task because they respond more cautiously, not because they have better memory. Computational models of decision making, like the drift-diffusion model and the linear ballistic accumulator model, provide a potential solution to this problem. They can be fitted to data from individual participants to disentangle the effects of the different processes driving behavior. In this sense the models can provide cleaner measures of the processes of interest, and enhance our understanding of how neural activity varies across individuals or populations. The advantages of this model-based approach to investigating individual differences in neural activity are discussed with recent examples of how this method can improve our understanding of the brain-behavior relationship.

  16. Linear finite-difference bond graph model of an ionic polymer actuator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bentefrit, M.; Grondel, S.; Soyer, C.; Fannir, A.; Cattan, E.; Madden, J. D.; Nguyen, T. M. G.; Plesse, C.; Vidal, F.

    2017-09-01

    With the recent growing interest for soft actuation, many new types of ionic polymers working in air have been developed. Due to the interrelated mechanical, electrical, and chemical properties which greatly influence the characteristics of such actuators, their behavior is complex and difficult to understand, predict and optimize. In light of this challenge, an original linear multiphysics finite difference bond graph model was derived to characterize this ionic actuation. This finite difference scheme was divided into two coupled subparts, each related to a specific physical, electrochemical or mechanical domain, and then converted into a bond graph model as this language is particularly suited for systems from multiple energy domains. Simulations were then conducted and a good agreement with the experimental results was obtained. Furthermore, an analysis of the power efficiency of such actuators as a function of space and time was proposed and allowed to evaluate their performance.

  17. A new moisture tagging capability in the Weather Research and Forecasting model: formulation, validation and application to the 2014 Great Lake-effect snowstorm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Insua-Costa, Damián; Miguez-Macho, Gonzalo

    2018-02-01

    A new moisture tagging tool, usually known as water vapor tracer (WVT) method or online Eulerian method, has been implemented into the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) regional meteorological model, enabling it for precise studies on atmospheric moisture sources and pathways. We present here the method and its formulation, along with details of the implementation into WRF. We perform an in-depth validation with a 1-month long simulation over North America at 20 km resolution, tagging all possible moisture sources: lateral boundaries, continental, maritime or lake surfaces and initial atmospheric conditions. We estimate errors as the moisture or precipitation amounts that cannot be traced back to any source. Validation results indicate that the method exhibits high precision, with errors considerably lower than 1 % during the entire simulation period, for both precipitation and total precipitable water. We apply the method to the Great Lake-effect snowstorm of November 2014, aiming at quantifying the contribution of lake evaporation to the large snow accumulations observed in the event. We perform simulations in a nested domain at 5 km resolution with the tagging technique, demonstrating that about 30-50 % of precipitation in the regions immediately downwind, originated from evaporated moisture in the Great Lakes. This contribution increases to between 50 and 60 % of the snow water equivalent in the most severely affected areas, which suggests that evaporative fluxes from the lakes have a fundamental role in producing the most extreme accumulations in these episodes, resulting in the highest socioeconomic impacts.

  18. A hybrid finite-difference and analytic element groundwater model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haitjema, Henk M.; Feinstein, Daniel T.; Hunt, Randall J.; Gusyev, Maksym

    2010-01-01

    Regional finite-difference models tend to have large cell sizes, often on the order of 1–2 km on a side. Although the regional flow patterns in deeper formations may be adequately represented by such a model, the intricate surface water and groundwater interactions in the shallower layers are not. Several stream reaches and nearby wells may occur in a single cell, precluding any meaningful modeling of the surface water and groundwater interactions between the individual features. We propose to replace the upper MODFLOW layer or layers, in which the surface water and groundwater interactions occur, by an analytic element model (GFLOW) that does not employ a model grid; instead, it represents wells and surface waters directly by the use of point-sinks and line-sinks. For many practical cases it suffices to provide GFLOW with the vertical leakage rates calculated in the original coarse MODFLOW model in order to obtain a good representation of surface water and groundwater interactions. However, when the combined transmissivities in the deeper (MODFLOW) layers dominate, the accuracy of the GFLOW solution diminishes. For those cases, an iterative coupling procedure, whereby the leakages between the GFLOW and MODFLOW model are updated, appreciably improves the overall solution, albeit at considerable computational cost. The coupled GFLOW–MODFLOW model is applicable to relatively large areas, in many cases to the entire model domain, thus forming an attractive alternative to local grid refinement or inset models.

  19. A CASE STUDY OF MODELING A TORUS IN DIFFERENT MODELING SOFTWARES

    OpenAIRE

    VELJKOVIĆ Milica; KRASIĆ Sonja; PEJIĆ Petar; TOŠIĆ Zlata

    2017-01-01

    Modeling of the complex geometric shapes requires the use of appropriate softwares. This study analyzes the process of modeling with two different computer softwares, AutoCAD and Rhinoceros. The aim is to demonstrate the similarities and differences between these softwares when used for modeling torus, a double curved geometric surface. The two modeling processes are compared in order to investigate the potentials of these softwares in the modeling of an architectural structure comprising a s...

  20. Spatial modelling of Calanus finmarchicus and Calanus helgolandicus: parameter differences explain differences in biogeography

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert John Wilson

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The North Atlantic copepods Calanus finmarchicus and C. helgolandicus are moving north in response to rising temperatures. Understanding the drivers of their relative geographic distributions is required in order to anticipate future changes. To explore this, we created a new spatially explicit stage-structured model of their populations throughout the North Atlantic. Recent advances in understanding Calanus biology, including U-shaped relationships between growth and fecundity and temperature, and a new model of diapause duration are incorporated in the model. Equations were identical for both species, but some parameters were species-specific. The model was parameterized using Continuous Plankton Recorder Survey data and tested using time series of abundance and fecundity. The geographic distributions of both species were reproduced by assuming that only known interspecific differences and a difference in the temperature influence on mortality exist. We show that differences in diapause capability are not necessary to explain why C. helgolandicus is restricted to the continental shelf. Smaller body size and higher overwinter temperatures likely make true diapause implausible for C. helgolandicus. Known differences were incapable of explaining why only C. helgolandicus exists southwest of the British Isles. Further, the fecundity of C. helgolandicus in the English Channel is much lower than we predict. We hypothesize that food quality is a key influence on the population dynamics of these species. The modelling framework presented can potentially be extended to further Calanus species.

  1. Sex differences in animal models of psychiatric disorders

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kokras, N; Dalla, C

    2014-01-01

    Psychiatric disorders are characterized by sex differences in their prevalence, symptomatology and treatment response. Animal models have been widely employed for the investigation of the neurobiology of such disorders and the discovery of new treatments. However, mostly male animals have been used in preclinical pharmacological studies. In this review, we highlight the need for the inclusion of both male and female animals in experimental studies aiming at gender-oriented prevention, diagnosis and treatment of psychiatric disorders. We present behavioural findings on sex differences from animal models of depression, anxiety, post-traumatic stress disorder, substance-related disorders, obsessive–compulsive disorder, schizophrenia, bipolar disorder and autism. Moreover, when available, we include studies conducted across different stages of the oestrous cycle. By inspection of the relevant literature, it is obvious that robust sex differences exist in models of all psychiatric disorders. However, many times results are conflicting, and no clear conclusion regarding the direction of sex differences and the effect of the oestrous cycle is drawn. Moreover, there is a lack of considerable amount of studies using psychiatric drugs in both male and female animals, in order to evaluate the differential response between the two sexes. Notably, while in most cases animal models successfully mimic drug response in both sexes, test parameters and treatment-sensitive behavioural indices are not always the same for male and female rodents. Thus, there is an increasing need to validate animal models for both sexes and use standard procedures across different laboratories. Linked Articles This article is part of a themed section on Animal Models in Psychiatry Research. To view the other articles in this section visit http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/bph.2014.171.issue-20 PMID:24697577

  2. Modeling Biology Spanning Different Scales: An Open Challenge

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Filippo Castiglione

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available It is coming nowadays more clear that in order to obtain a unified description of the different mechanisms governing the behavior and causality relations among the various parts of a living system, the development of comprehensive computational and mathematical models at different space and time scales is required. This is one of the most formidable challenges of modern biology characterized by the availability of huge amount of high throughput measurements. In this paper we draw attention to the importance of multiscale modeling in the framework of studies of biological systems in general and of the immune system in particular.

  3. An adaptation model for trabecular bone at different mechanical levels

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lv Linwei

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Bone has the ability to adapt to mechanical usage or other biophysical stimuli in terms of its mass and architecture, indicating that a certain mechanism exists for monitoring mechanical usage and controlling the bone's adaptation behaviors. There are four zones describing different bone adaptation behaviors: the disuse, adaptation, overload, and pathologic overload zones. In different zones, the changes of bone mass, as calculated by the difference between the amount of bone formed and what is resorbed, should be different. Methods An adaptation model for the trabecular bone at different mechanical levels was presented in this study based on a number of experimental observations and numerical algorithms in the literature. In the proposed model, the amount of bone formation and the probability of bone remodeling activation were proposed in accordance with the mechanical levels. Seven numerical simulation cases under different mechanical conditions were analyzed as examples by incorporating the adaptation model presented in this paper with the finite element method. Results The proposed bone adaptation model describes the well-known bone adaptation behaviors in different zones. The bone mass and architecture of the bone tissue within the adaptation zone almost remained unchanged. Although the probability of osteoclastic activation is enhanced in the overload zone, the potential of osteoblasts to form bones compensate for the osteoclastic resorption, eventually strengthening the bones. In the disuse zone, the disuse-mode remodeling removes bone tissue in disuse zone. Conclusions The study seeks to provide better understanding of the relationships between bone morphology and the mechanical, as well as biological environments. Furthermore, this paper provides a computational model and methodology for the numerical simulation of changes of bone structural morphology that are caused by changes of mechanical and biological

  4. Gender Differences in Animal Models of Posttraumatic Stress Disorder

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hagit Cohen

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Epidemiological studies report higher prevalence rates of stress-related disorders such as acute stress disorder and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD in women than in men following exposure to trauma. It is still not clear whether this greater prevalence in woman reflects a greater vulnerability to stress-related psychopathology. A number of individual and trauma-related characteristics have been hypothesized to contribute to these gender differences in physiological and psychological responses to trauma, differences in appraisal, interpretation or experience of threat, coping style or social support. In this context, the use of an animal model for PTSD to analyze some of these gender-related differences may be of particular utility. Animal models of PTSD offer the opportunity to distinguish between biological and socio-cultural factors, which so often enter the discussion about gender differences in PTSD prevalence.

  5. A Fay-Herriot Model with Different Random Effect Variances

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Hobza, Tomáš; Morales, D.; Herrador, M.; Esteban, M.D.

    2011-01-01

    Roč. 40, č. 5 (2011), s. 785-797 ISSN 0361-0926 R&D Projects: GA MŠk 1M0572 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : small area estimation * Fay-Herriot model * Linear mixed model * Labor Force Survey Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 0.274, year: 2011 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2011/SI/hobza-a%20fay-herriot%20model%20with%20different%20random%20effect%20variances.pdf

  6. Coalescence of liquid drops: Different models versus experiment

    KAUST Repository

    Sprittles, J. E.

    2012-01-01

    The process of coalescence of two identical liquid drops is simulated numerically in the framework of two essentially different mathematical models, and the results are compared with experimental data on the very early stages of the coalescence process reported recently. The first model tested is the "conventional" one, where it is assumed that coalescence as the formation of a single body of fluid occurs by an instant appearance of a liquid bridge smoothly connecting the two drops, and the subsequent process is the evolution of this single body of fluid driven by capillary forces. The second model under investigation considers coalescence as a process where a section of the free surface becomes trapped between the bulk phases as the drops are pressed against each other, and it is the gradual disappearance of this "internal interface" that leads to the formation of a single body of fluid and the conventional model taking over. Using the full numerical solution of the problem in the framework of each of the two models, we show that the recently reported electrical measurements probing the very early stages of the process are better described by the interface formation/disappearance model. New theory-guided experiments are suggested that would help to further elucidate the details of the coalescence phenomenon. As a by-product of our research, the range of validity of different "scaling laws" advanced as approximate solutions to the problem formulated using the conventional model is established. © 2012 American Institute of Physics.

  7. Sex Differences in Animal Models: Focus on Addiction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Becker, Jill B.

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of this review is to discuss ways to think about and study sex differences in preclinical animal models. We use the framework of addiction, in which animal models have excellent face and construct validity, to illustrate the importance of considering sex differences. There are four types of sex differences: qualitative, quantitative, population, and mechanistic. A better understanding of the ways males and females can differ will help scientists design experiments to characterize better the presence or absence of sex differences in new phenomena that they are investigating. We have outlined major quantitative, population, and mechanistic sex differences in the addiction domain using a heuristic framework of the three established stages of the addiction cycle: binge/intoxication, withdrawal/negative affect, and preoccupation/anticipation. Female rats, in general, acquire the self-administration of drugs and alcohol more rapidly, escalate their drug taking with extended access more rapidly, show more motivational withdrawal, and (where tested in animal models of “craving”) show greater reinstatement. The one exception is that female rats show less motivational withdrawal to alcohol. The bases for these quantitative sex differences appear to be both organizational, in that estradiol-treated neonatal animals show the male phenotype, and activational, in that the female phenotype depends on the effects of gonadal hormones. In animals, differences within the estrous cycle can be observed but are relatively minor. Such hormonal effects seem to be most prevalent during the acquisition of drug taking and less influential once compulsive drug taking is established and are linked largely to progesterone and estradiol. This review emphasizes not only significant differences in the phenotypes of females and males in the domain of addiction but emphasizes the paucity of data to date in our understanding of those differences. PMID:26772794

  8. Small distances, great differences: a case study involving the biomass of reef seaweeds and fishes on the coast of Paraíba, Northeast Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cláudio Luís Santos Sampaio

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available Shallow reefs on the coast of Paraíba state are poorly known. An analysis at three stations (Prot = protected; SP = semi-protected; Exp = exposed with different gradients of wave exposure revealed significant (p < 0.05 differences related to the biomass of seaweed (Prot = SP ≠ Exp. Station Exp with 9.97g (23% presented the lowest value followed by SP with 10.93 (25% and Prot with 22.55g (52%. The values suggest that the biomass of seaweeds is inversely related to the gradative higher exposure to waves. Additionally, a first record of Wrangelia argus (Montagne Montagne was made for the coast of Paraíba.

  9. Modeling of Brain Shift Phenomenon for Different Craniotomies and Solid Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alvaro Valencia

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This study investigates the effects of different solid models on predictions of brain shift for three craniotomies. We created a generic 3D brain model based on healthy human brain and modeled the brain parenchyma as single continuum and constrained by a practically rigid skull. We have used elastic model, hyperelastic 1st, 2nd, and 3rd Ogden models, and hyperelastic Mooney-Rivlin with 2- and 5-parameter models. A pressure on the brain surface at craniotomy region was applied to load the model. The models were solved with the finite elements package ANSYS. The predictions on stress and displacements were compared for three different craniotomies. The difference between the predictions of elastic solid model and a hyperelastic Ogden solid model of maximum brain displacement and maximum effective stress is relevant.

  10. Does style matter? : A cross-cultural study into the influence of differences in style dimensions on the persuasiveness of business newsletters in Great Britain and the Netherlands

    OpenAIRE

    Hendriks, B.C.; Pair, R.G. le; Meurs, F. van; Korzilius, H.P.L.M.; Damen, S.

    2005-01-01

    An important consideration in the field of intercultural communication is the difference in communication styles between cultures. Gudykunst and Ting-Toomey (1988) distinguish four dimensions of communication styles: direct - indirect, instrumental – affective, personal – contextual and succinct – elaborate. This last dimension is central to the present study. In an experiment the attractiveness and persuasiveness of a succinct and an elaborate business newsletter was investigated in two coun...

  11. Calibration of two complex ecosystem models with different likelihood functions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hidy, Dóra; Haszpra, László; Pintér, Krisztina; Nagy, Zoltán; Barcza, Zoltán

    2014-05-01

    The biosphere is a sensitive carbon reservoir. Terrestrial ecosystems were approximately carbon neutral during the past centuries, but they became net carbon sinks due to climate change induced environmental change and associated CO2 fertilization effect of the atmosphere. Model studies and measurements indicate that the biospheric carbon sink can saturate in the future due to ongoing climate change which can act as a positive feedback. Robustness of carbon cycle models is a key issue when trying to choose the appropriate model for decision support. The input parameters of the process-based models are decisive regarding the model output. At the same time there are several input parameters for which accurate values are hard to obtain directly from experiments or no local measurements are available. Due to the uncertainty associated with the unknown model parameters significant bias can be experienced if the model is used to simulate the carbon and nitrogen cycle components of different ecosystems. In order to improve model performance the unknown model parameters has to be estimated. We developed a multi-objective, two-step calibration method based on Bayesian approach in order to estimate the unknown parameters of PaSim and Biome-BGC models. Biome-BGC and PaSim are a widely used biogeochemical models that simulate the storage and flux of water, carbon, and nitrogen between the ecosystem and the atmosphere, and within the components of the terrestrial ecosystems (in this research the developed version of Biome-BGC is used which is referred as BBGC MuSo). Both models were calibrated regardless the simulated processes and type of model parameters. The calibration procedure is based on the comparison of measured data with simulated results via calculating a likelihood function (degree of goodness-of-fit between simulated and measured data). In our research different likelihood function formulations were used in order to examine the effect of the different model

  12. Different Strokes for Different Folks: Scaling a Blended Model of Teacher Professional Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Butler, Deirdre; Leahy, Margaret; Hallissy, Michael; Brown, Mark

    2017-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to describe an innovative model of teacher professional learning that has evolved over a decade (2006 to 2016). Design/methodology/approach: Working in a range of different school contexts, in conjunction with an ongoing engagement with the research literature, has enabled the development over three phases of…

  13. Multilevel eEmpirical Bayes modeling for improved estimation of toxicant formulations tosuppress parasitic sea lamprey in the Upper Great Lakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hatfield, Laura A.; Gutreuter, Steve; Boogaard, Michael A.; Carlin, Bradley P.

    2011-01-01

    Estimation of extreme quantal-response statistics, such as the concentration required to kill 99.9% of test subjects (LC99.9), remains a challenge in the presence of multiple covariates and complex study designs. Accurate and precise estimates of the LC99.9 for mixtures of toxicants are critical to ongoing control of a parasitic invasive species, the sea lamprey, in the Laurentian Great Lakes of North America. The toxicity of those chemicals is affected by local and temporal variations in water chemistry, which must be incorporated into the modeling. We develop multilevel empirical Bayes models for data from multiple laboratory studies. Our approach yields more accurate and precise estimation of the LC99.9 compared to alternative models considered. This study demonstrates that properly incorporating hierarchical structure in laboratory data yields better estimates of LC99.9 stream treatment values that are critical to larvae control in the field. In addition, out-of-sample prediction of the results of in situ tests reveals the presence of a latent seasonal effect not manifest in the laboratory studies, suggesting avenues for future study and illustrating the importance of dual consideration of both experimental and observational data.

  14. Use of remotely-sensed observations and a data assimilating marine biogeochemical model to determine water quality on the Great Barrier Reef.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baird, Mark; Jones, Emlyn; Wozniak, Monika; Mongin, Mathieu; Skerratt, Jennifer; Margvelashvilli, Nugzar; Wild-Allen, Karen; Robson, Barbara; Rizwi, Farhan; Schroeder, Thomas; Steven, Andy

    2017-04-01

    The health of the Great Barrier Reef is presently assessed using the water column concentration of chlorophyll and suspended solids, and measured light penetration. Quantifying these water column properties over 2,000 km of often cloud-covered, sparsely sampled, and highly variable coastal waters is problematic. To provide the best estimate of water quality, we assimilating satellite remote-sensing reflectance (the ratio of water-leaving radiance versus water-entering irradiance) using an in-water optical model to produce an equivalent simulated remote-sensing reflectance, and calculate the mis-match between the observed and simulated quantities to constrain a complex biogeochemical model (eReefs) with a Deterministic Ensemble Kalman Filter (DEnKF). We compare the water quality properties of the data assimilating model with in-situ observations, as well as with withheld remote-sensed observations. As a final step, we consider whether withheld observations can be combined with the data-assimilation generated chlorophyll fields to provide the best estimate of the chlorophyll concentration given all the available information.

  15. A generic method for automatic translation between input models for different versions of simulation codes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Serfontein, Dawid E.; Mulder, Eben J.; Reitsma, Frederik

    2014-01-01

    A computer code was developed for the semi-automatic translation of input models for the VSOP-A diffusion neutronics simulation code to the format of the newer VSOP 99/05 code. In this paper, this algorithm is presented as a generic method for producing codes for the automatic translation of input models from the format of one code version to another, or even to that of a completely different code. Normally, such translations are done manually. However, input model files, such as for the VSOP codes, often are very large and may consist of many thousands of numeric entries that make no particular sense to the human eye. Therefore the task, of for instance nuclear regulators, to verify the accuracy of such translated files can be very difficult and cumbersome. This may cause translation errors not to be picked up, which may have disastrous consequences later on when a reactor with such a faulty design is built. Therefore a generic algorithm for producing such automatic translation codes may ease the translation and verification process to a great extent. It will also remove human error from the process, which may significantly enhance the accuracy and reliability of the process. The developed algorithm also automatically creates a verification log file which permanently record the names and values of each variable used, as well as the list of meanings of all the possible values. This should greatly facilitate reactor licensing applications

  16. A model for the evaluation of different production strategies for ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    An interactive user-friendly computer package is being developed to assist planners and managers with the evaluation of different livestock production strategies in semi-arid regions. It comprises a hierarchy of simulation models that predict over time the effects of past and present rainfall, stocking rates, milking and sales ...

  17. Application of different models to the lactation curves of unimproved ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The objective of this study was to investigate the use of four different mathematical functions (Wood, Inverse Polynomial, Quadratic and Cubic models) for describing the lactation curve of unimproved Awassi ewes. Data were collected from 136 ewes from the same flock raised on the State Farm of Gözlü in the Konya ...

  18. Modeling and analysis of different control strategies for fogging ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A dynamic environment model was established on the effects of greenhouse cooling on different control strategies in a fogging system, which simulations were then conducted by Matlab. Simulation results showed that by applying a suitable set of control strategy, the indoor temperature dropped and was less than the ...

  19. On distinguishing different models of a class of emergent Universe ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    A specific class of singularity-free cosmological model has recently been considered in light of different observational data such as observed Hubble data, BAO data from luminous red galaxy survey by Slowan digital sky survey (SDSS) and CMB data from WMAP. However, it is observed that only 12–14 data points are used ...

  20. How Different are Language Models and Word Clouds?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kaptein, Rianne; Hiemstra, Djoerd; Kamps, Jaap

    Word clouds are a summarised representation of a document’s text, similar to tag clouds which summarise the tags assigned to documents. Word clouds are similar to language models in the sense that they represent a document by its word distribution. In this paper we investigate the differences

  1. How different are language models and word clouds?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kaptein, R.; Hiemstra, D.; Kamps, J.

    2010-01-01

    Word clouds are a summarised representation of a document’s text, similar to tag clouds which summarise the tags assigned to documents. Word clouds are similar to language models in the sense that they represent a document by its word distribution. In this paper we investigate the differences

  2. Skills of different mesoscale models over Indian region during ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Journal of Earth System Science; Volume 117; Issue 5. Skills of different mesoscale models over Indian region during monsoon season: Forecast errors. Someshwar Das Raghavendra Ashrit Gopal Raman Iyengar Saji Mohandas M Das Gupta John P George E N Rajagopal Surya Kanti Dutta. Volume 117 ...

  3. Differences and similarities in breast cancer risk assessment models in clinical practice : which model to choose?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jacobi, Catharina E.; de Bock, Geertruida H.; Siegerink, Bob; van Asperen, Christi J.

    To show differences and similarities between risk estimation models for breast cancer in healthy women from BRCA1/2-negative or untested families. After a systematic literature search seven models were selected: Gail-2, Claus Model, Claus Tables, BOADICEA, Jonker Model, Claus-Extended Formula, and

  4. Making sense to modelers: Presenting UML class model differences in prose

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Störrle, Harald

    2013-01-01

    Understanding the difference between two models, such as different versions of a design, can be difficult. It is a commonly held belief in the model differencing community that the best way of presenting a model difference is by using graph or tree-based visualizations. We disagree and present an...... by a controlled experiment that tests three alternatives to presenting model differences. Our findings support our claim that the approach presented here is superior to EMF Compare.......Understanding the difference between two models, such as different versions of a design, can be difficult. It is a commonly held belief in the model differencing community that the best way of presenting a model difference is by using graph or tree-based visualizations. We disagree and present...... an alternative approach where sets of low-level model differences are abstracted into high-level model differences that lend themselves to being presented textually. This format is informed by an explorative survey to elicit the change descriptions modelers use themselves. Our approach is validated...

  5. Urban rural differences in diet, physical activity and obesity in India: are we witnessing the great Indian equalisation? Results from a cross-sectional STEPS survey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jaya Prasad Tripathy

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The rising morbidity and mortality due to non-communicable diseases can be partly attributed to the urbanized lifestyle leading to unhealthy dietary practices and increasing physical levels of inactivity. The demographic and nutrition transition in India has also contributed to the emerging epidemic of non-communicable diseases in this country. In this context, there is limited information in India on dietary patterns, levels of physical activity and obesity. The aim of the present study was thus to assess the urban rural differences in dietary habits, physical activity and obesity in India. Methods A household survey was done in the state of Punjab, India in a multistage stratified sample of 5127 individuals using the WHO STEPS questionnaire. Results No rural urban difference was found in dietary practices and prevalence of overweight and obesity except the fact that a significantly higher proportion of respondents belonging to rural area (15.6 % always/often add salt before/when eating as compared to urban area (9.1 %. Overall 95.8 % (94.6–97.0 of participants took less than 5 servings of fruits and/or vegetables on average per day. No significant urban rural difference was noted in both sexes in all three domains of physical activity such as work, transport and recreation. However, rural females (19.1 % were found to be engaged in vigorous activity more than the urban females (6.3 %. Males reported high levels of physical activity in both the settings. Absence of recreational activity was reported by more than 95 % of the subjects. Higher prevalence of obesity (asian cut offs used was seen among urban females (34.3 % as compared to their rural counterparts (23.2 %. Abdominal obesity was found to be significantly higher among females in both the settings compared to males (p < 0.001. Conclusions Poor dietary practices and physical inactivity seems to fuel the non-communicable disease epidemic in India. Non

  6. Urban rural differences in diet, physical activity and obesity in India: are we witnessing the great Indian equalisation? Results from a cross-sectional STEPS survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tripathy, Jaya Prasad; Thakur, J S; Jeet, Gursimer; Chawla, Sohan; Jain, Sanjay; Prasad, Rajender

    2016-08-18

    The rising morbidity and mortality due to non-communicable diseases can be partly attributed to the urbanized lifestyle leading to unhealthy dietary practices and increasing physical levels of inactivity. The demographic and nutrition transition in India has also contributed to the emerging epidemic of non-communicable diseases in this country. In this context, there is limited information in India on dietary patterns, levels of physical activity and obesity. The aim of the present study was thus to assess the urban rural differences in dietary habits, physical activity and obesity in India. A household survey was done in the state of Punjab, India in a multistage stratified sample of 5127 individuals using the WHO STEPS questionnaire. No rural urban difference was found in dietary practices and prevalence of overweight and obesity except the fact that a significantly higher proportion of respondents belonging to rural area (15.6 %) always/often add salt before/when eating as compared to urban area (9.1 %). Overall 95.8 % (94.6-97.0) of participants took less than 5 servings of fruits and/or vegetables on average per day. No significant urban rural difference was noted in both sexes in all three domains of physical activity such as work, transport and recreation. However, rural females (19.1 %) were found to be engaged in vigorous activity more than the urban females (6.3 %). Males reported high levels of physical activity in both the settings. Absence of recreational activity was reported by more than 95 % of the subjects. Higher prevalence of obesity (asian cut offs used) was seen among urban females (34.3 %) as compared to their rural counterparts (23.2 %). Abdominal obesity was found to be significantly higher among females in both the settings compared to males (p issues with a gender equity lens. Rapid urbanization of rural India might be responsible for the absence of a significant urban rural difference.

  7. Geometric Modelling of Tree Roots with Different Levels of Detail

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guerrero Iñiguez, J. I.

    2017-09-01

    This paper presents a geometric approach for modelling tree roots with different Levels of Detail, suitable for analysis of the tree anchoring, potentially occupied underground space, interaction with urban elements and damage produced and taken in the built-in environment. Three types of tree roots are considered to cover several species: tap root, heart shaped root and lateral roots. Shrubs and smaller plants are not considered, however, a similar approach can be considered if the information is available for individual species. The geometrical approach considers the difficulties of modelling the actual roots, which are dynamic and almost opaque to direct observation, proposing generalized versions. For each type of root, different geometric models are considered to capture the overall shape of the root, a simplified block model, and a planar or surface projected version. Lower detail versions are considered as compatibility version for 2D systems while higher detail models are suitable for 3D analysis and visualization. The proposed levels of detail are matched with CityGML Levels of Detail, enabling both analysis and aesthetic views for urban modelling.

  8. Standardized binomial models for risk or prevalence ratios and differences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richardson, David B; Kinlaw, Alan C; MacLehose, Richard F; Cole, Stephen R

    2015-10-01

    Epidemiologists often analyse binary outcomes in cohort and cross-sectional studies using multivariable logistic regression models, yielding estimates of adjusted odds ratios. It is widely known that the odds ratio closely approximates the risk or prevalence ratio when the outcome is rare, and it does not do so when the outcome is common. Consequently, investigators may decide to directly estimate the risk or prevalence ratio using a log binomial regression model. We describe the use of a marginal structural binomial regression model to estimate standardized risk or prevalence ratios and differences. We illustrate the proposed approach using data from a cohort study of coronary heart disease status in Evans County, Georgia, USA. The approach reduces problems with model convergence typical of log binomial regression by shifting all explanatory variables except the exposures of primary interest from the linear predictor of the outcome regression model to a model for the standardization weights. The approach also facilitates evaluation of departures from additivity in the joint effects of two exposures. Epidemiologists should consider reporting standardized risk or prevalence ratios and differences in cohort and cross-sectional studies. These are readily-obtained using the SAS, Stata and R statistical software packages. The proposed approach estimates the exposure effect in the total population. © The Author 2015; all rights reserved. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association.

  9. Modelling financial markets with agents competing on different time scales and with different amount of information

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wohlmuth, Johannes; Andersen, Jørgen Vitting

    2006-05-01

    We use agent-based models to study the competition among investors who use trading strategies with different amount of information and with different time scales. We find that mixing agents that trade on the same time scale but with different amount of information has a stabilizing impact on the large and extreme fluctuations of the market. Traders with the most information are found to be more likely to arbitrage traders who use less information in the decision making. On the other hand, introducing investors who act on two different time scales has a destabilizing effect on the large and extreme price movements, increasing the volatility of the market. Closeness in time scale used in the decision making is found to facilitate the creation of local trends. The larger the overlap in commonly shared information the more the traders in a mixed system with different time scales are found to profit from the presence of traders acting at another time scale than themselves.

  10. Variation of optical properties at Lucinda Jetty Coastal Observatory and its input into an optical model of coastal waters in Great Barrier Reef region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wozniak, Monika; Baird, Mark; Schroeder, Thomas; Clementson, Lesley; Jones, Emlyn

    2017-04-01

    The water column optical properties from an observation station located at the end of a 5.8 km long jetty in the coastal waters of the Great Barrier Reef World Heritage Area (18.52 S, 146.39 E) were studied. Due to the location of the Lucinda Jetty Coastal Observatory (LJCO), at the interface of large riverine nutrient and sediment sources and clear open ocean waters, it is an optically variable and interesting region. LJCO is the only Southern Hemisphere ocean colour validation site integrated into NASA's AERONET-OC global network of ground-based radiometers. LJCO has a 3 years long time series (2014-2016) of continuous in-water optical measurements of absorption (AC-S), scattering (AC-S) and backscattering (BB-9) spectra together with water-leaving radiance spectra (SeaPRISM) acquired above the water surface and concentration of water components (WQM). Further HPLC and spectrophotometrically-retrieved absorption and scattering were determined fortnightly. These detailed bio-optical observations are rarely available as a time-series for model assessment. We use these data to quantify the relationship between optical properties and water constituents and to developing a more accurate optical model for coastal, optically complex water like GBR model. Pigment analysis show that studied area is dominated by alternatively freshwater and oceanic phytoplankton species depending on weather condition, tides and season. Absorption spectra at 440 nm and 550 nm are dominated by detritus but also have a significant CDOM contribution, which influences reflectance values in that range of spectrum and negatively affects wavebands used in satellite and remote algorithms for water constituents. These emergent features are compared to the model outputs, demonstrating when the model produces accurate optical signals with realistic process representation.

  11. Bottom Fixed Platform Dynamics Models Assessing Surface Ice Interactions for Transitional Depth Structures in the Great Lakes: FAST8 – IceDyn

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Karr, Dale G. [Univ. of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI (United States); Yu, Bingbin [Principle Power, Inc., Emeryville, CA (United States); Sirnivas, Senu [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2015-04-01

    To create long-term solutions for offshore wind turbines in a variety of environmental conditions, CAE tools are needed to model the design-driving loads that interact with an offshore wind turbine system during operation. This report describes our efforts in augmenting existing CAE tools used for offshore wind turbine analysis with a new module that can provide simulation capabilities for ice loading on the system. This augmentation was accomplished by creating an ice-loading module coupled to FAST8, the CAE tool maintained by the NREL for simulating land-based and offshore wind turbine dynamics. The new module includes both static and dynamic ice loading that can be applied during a dynamic simulation of the response of an offshore wind turbine. The ice forces can be prescribed, or influenced by the structure’s compliant response, or by the dynamics of both the structure and the ice floe. The new module covers ice failure modes of spalling, buckling, crushing, splitting, and bending. The supporting structure of wind turbines can be modeled as a vertical or sloping form at the waterline. The Inward Battered Guide Structure (IBGS) foundation designed by Keystone Engineering for the Great Lakes was used to study the ice models coupled to FAST8. The IBGS foundation ice loading simulations in FAST8 were compared to the baseline simulation case without ice loading. The ice conditions reflecting those from Lake Huron at Port Huron and Lake Michigan at North Manitou were studied under near rated wind speed of 12 m/s for the NREL 5-MW reference turbine. Simulations were performed on ice loading models 1 through 4 and ice model 6 with their respective sub-models. The purpose of ice model 5 is to investigate ice loading on sloping structures such as ice-cones on a monopile and is not suitable for multi-membered jacketed structures like the IBGS foundation. The key response parameters from the simulations, shear forces and moments from the tower base and IBGS foundation

  12. Fibroblast motility on substrates with different rigidities: modeling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gracheva, Maria; Dokukina, Irina

    2009-03-01

    We develop a discrete model for cell locomotion on substrates with different rigidities and simulate experiments described in Lo, Wang, Dembo, Wang (2000) ``Cell movement is guided by the rigidity of the substrate'', Biophys. J. 79: 144-152. In these experiments fibroblasts were planted on a substrate with a step rigidity and showed preference for locomotion over stiffer side of the substrate when approaches the boundary between the soft and the stiff sides of the substrate. The model reproduces experimentally observed behavior of fibroblasts. In particular, we are able to show with our model how cell characteristics (such as cell length, shape, area and speed) change during cell crawling through the ``soft-stiff'' substrate boundary. Also, our model suggests the temporary increase of both cell speed and area in that very moment when cell leaves soft side of substrate.

  13. Gender obesity inequities are huge but differ greatly according to environment and socio-economics in a North African setting: a national cross-sectional study in Tunisia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    El Ati, Jalila; Traissac, Pierre; Delpeuch, Francis; Aounallah-Skhiri, Hajer; Béji, Chiraz; Eymard-Duvernay, Sabrina; Bougatef, Souha; Kolsteren, Patrick; Maire, Bernard; Ben Romdhane, Habiba

    2012-01-01

    Southern Mediterranean countries have experienced a marked increase in the prevalence of obesity whose consequences for gender related health inequities have been little studied. We assessed gender obesity inequalities and their environmental and socio-economic modifiers among Tunisian adults. Cross-sectional survey in 2005; national, 3 level random cluster sample of 35-70 years Tunisians (women: n = 2964, men: n = 2379). Overall adiposity was assessed by BMI = weight(kg)/height(m)(2) and obesity was BMI≥30, WHtR = waist circumference to height ratio defined abdominal obesity as WHtR≥0.6. Gender obesity inequality measure was women versus men Prevalence Proportion Odds-Ratio (OR); models featuring gender x covariate interaction assessed variation of gender obesity inequalities with area (urban versus rural), age, marital status or socio-economic position (profession, education, household income proxy). BMI was much higher among women (28.4(0.2)) versus men (25.3(0.1)), Peducation or more (OR = 3.3[1.3-8.6]), than among those with no schooling (OR = 6.9[2.0-23.3]). They were also lower for those with upper/intermediate profession (OR = 1.4[0.5-4.3]) or even employees/workers OR = 2.3[1.0-5.4] than those not professionaly active at all (OR = 3.3[1.3-8.6]). Similar results were observed for addominal obesity. The huge overall gender obesity inequities (women much more corpulent than men) were higher in urban settings, but lower among subjects of higher education and professional activity. Reasons for gender inequalities in obesity and their variation with socio-economic position should be sought so that appropriate policies to reduce these inequalities can be implemented in Tunisia and similar settings.

  14. Predicting future glacial lakes in Austria using different modelling approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otto, Jan-Christoph; Helfricht, Kay; Prasicek, Günther; Buckel, Johannes; Keuschnig, Markus

    2017-04-01

    Glacier retreat is one of the most apparent consequences of temperature rise in the 20th and 21th centuries in the European Alps. In Austria, more than 240 new lakes have formed in glacier forefields since the Little Ice Age. A similar signal is reported from many mountain areas worldwide. Glacial lakes can constitute important environmental and socio-economic impacts on high mountain systems including water resource management, sediment delivery, natural hazards, energy production and tourism. Their development significantly modifies the landscape configuration and visual appearance of high mountain areas. Knowledge on the location, number and extent of these future lakes can be used to assess potential impacts on high mountain geo-ecosystems and upland-lowland interactions. Information on new lakes is critical to appraise emerging threads and potentials for society. The recent development of regional ice thickness models and their combination with high resolution glacier surface data allows predicting the topography below current glaciers by subtracting ice thickness from glacier surface. Analyzing these modelled glacier bed surfaces reveals overdeepenings that represent potential locations for future lakes. In order to predict the location of future glacial lakes below recent glaciers in the Austrian Alps we apply different ice thickness models using high resolution terrain data and glacier outlines. The results are compared and validated with ice thickness data from geophysical surveys. Additionally, we run the models on three different glacier extents provided by the Austrian Glacier Inventories from 1969, 1998 and 2006. Results of this historical glacier extent modelling are compared to existing glacier lakes and discussed focusing on geomorphological impacts on lake evolution. We discuss model performance and observed differences in the results in order to assess the approach for a realistic prediction of future lake locations. The presentation delivers

  15. Gender obesity inequities are huge but differ greatly according to environment and socio-economics in a North African setting: a national cross-sectional study in Tunisia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jalila El Ati

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: Southern Mediterranean countries have experienced a marked increase in the prevalence of obesity whose consequences for gender related health inequities have been little studied. We assessed gender obesity inequalities and their environmental and socio-economic modifiers among Tunisian adults. METHODS: Cross-sectional survey in 2005; national, 3 level random cluster sample of 35-70 years Tunisians (women: n = 2964, men: n = 2379. Overall adiposity was assessed by BMI = weight(kg/height(m(2 and obesity was BMI≥30, WHtR = waist circumference to height ratio defined abdominal obesity as WHtR≥0.6. Gender obesity inequality measure was women versus men Prevalence Proportion Odds-Ratio (OR; models featuring gender x covariate interaction assessed variation of gender obesity inequalities with area (urban versus rural, age, marital status or socio-economic position (profession, education, household income proxy. RESULTS: BMI was much higher among women (28.4(0.2 versus men (25.3(0.1, P<0.0001 as was obesity (37.0% versus 13.3%, OR = 3.8[3.1-7.4], P<0.0001 and abdominal obesity (42.6% versus 15.6%, 4.0[3.3-4.8], P<0.0001. Gender obesity inequalities (women versus men adjusted OR were higher in urban (OR = 3.3[1.3-8.7] than rural (OR = 2.0[0.7-5.5] areas. These gender obesity inequalities were lower for subjects with secondary education or more (OR = 3.3[1.3-8.6], than among those with no schooling (OR = 6.9[2.0-23.3]. They were also lower for those with upper/intermediate profession (OR = 1.4[0.5-4.3] or even employees/workers OR = 2.3[1.0-5.4] than those not professionaly active at all (OR = 3.3[1.3-8.6]. Similar results were observed for addominal obesity. CONCLUSION: The huge overall gender obesity inequities (women much more corpulent than men were higher in urban settings, but lower among subjects of higher education and professional activity. Reasons for gender inequalities in

  16. The glycemic load estimated from the glycemic index does not differ greatly from that measured using a standard curve in healthy volunteers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Venn, Bernard J; Wallace, Alison J; Monro, John A; Perry, Tracy; Brown, Rachel; Frampton, Chris; Green, Tim J

    2006-05-01

    Glycemic load (GL) is calculated indirectly as glycemic index (GI) times the weight of available carbohydrate. Alternatively, GL may be measured directly using a standard glucose curve. The purpose of this study was to test the agreement between GL values obtained using direct and indirect methods of measurement in 20 healthy volunteers. A standard curve in which glucose dose was plotted against blood glucose incremental area under the curve (iAUC) was generated using beverages containing 0, 12.5, 25, 50, and 75 g glucose. The GI and available carbohydrate content of 5 foods were measured. The foods (white bread, fruit bread, granola bar, instant potato, and chickpeas) were consumed in 3 portion sizes, yielding 15 food/portion size combinations. GL was determined directly by relating the iAUC of a test food to the glucose standard curve. For 12 of 15 food/portion size combinations, GL determined using GI x available carbohydrate did not differ from GL measured from the standard curve (P > 0.05). For 3 of the test products (100 g white bread, and 100- and 150-g granola bars), GI x available carbohydrate was higher than the direct measure. Benefits of the direct measure are that the method does not require testing for available carbohydrate and it allows portion sizes to be tested. For practical purposes, GI x available carbohydrate provided a good estimate of GL, at least under circumstances in which available carbohydrate was measured, and GI and GL were tested in the same group of people.

  17. Regional differences in prediction models of lung function in Germany

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Schäper Christoph

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Little is known about the influencing potential of specific characteristics on lung function in different populations. The aim of this analysis was to determine whether lung function determinants differ between subpopulations within Germany and whether prediction equations developed for one subpopulation are also adequate for another subpopulation. Methods Within three studies (KORA C, SHIP-I, ECRHS-I in different areas of Germany 4059 adults performed lung function tests. The available data consisted of forced expiratory volume in one second, forced vital capacity and peak expiratory flow rate. For each study multivariate regression models were developed to predict lung function and Bland-Altman plots were established to evaluate the agreement between predicted and measured values. Results The final regression equations for FEV1 and FVC showed adjusted r-square values between 0.65 and 0.75, and for PEF they were between 0.46 and 0.61. In all studies gender, age, height and pack-years were significant determinants, each with a similar effect size. Regarding other predictors there were some, although not statistically significant, differences between the studies. Bland-Altman plots indicated that the regression models for each individual study adequately predict medium (i.e. normal but not extremely high or low lung function values in the whole study population. Conclusions Simple models with gender, age and height explain a substantial part of lung function variance whereas further determinants add less than 5% to the total explained r-squared, at least for FEV1 and FVC. Thus, for different adult subpopulations of Germany one simple model for each lung function measures is still sufficient.

  18. Gertrude the Great

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Else Marie Wiberg

    2006-01-01

    an encyclopedic article on the only woman who in Catholic church history has ever been called "the Great", the Cistercian nun Gertrude of Helfta (1256-1301/02......an encyclopedic article on the only woman who in Catholic church history has ever been called "the Great", the Cistercian nun Gertrude of Helfta (1256-1301/02...

  19. Great Basin insect outbreaks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barbara Bentz; Diane Alston; Ted Evans

    2008-01-01

    Outbreaks of native and exotic insects are important drivers of ecosystem dynamics in the Great Basin. The following provides an overview of range, forest, ornamental, and agricultural insect outbreaks occurring in the Great Basin and the associated management issues and research needs.

  20. Great Lakes Literacy Principles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fortner, Rosanne W.; Manzo, Lyndsey

    2011-03-01

    Lakes Superior, Huron, Michigan, Ontario, and Erie together form North America's Great Lakes, a region that contains 20% of the world's fresh surface water and is home to roughly one quarter of the U.S. population (Figure 1). Supporting a $4 billion sport fishing industry, plus $16 billion annually in boating, 1.5 million U.S. jobs, and $62 billion in annual wages directly, the Great Lakes form the backbone of a regional economy that is vital to the United States as a whole (see http://www.miseagrant.umich.edu/downloads/economy/11-708-Great-Lakes-Jobs.pdf). Yet the grandeur and importance of this freshwater resource are little understood, not only by people in the rest of the country but also by many in the region itself. To help address this lack of knowledge, the Centers for Ocean Sciences Education Excellence (COSEE) Great Lakes, supported by the U.S. National Science Foundation and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, developed literacy principles for the Great Lakes to serve as a guide for education of students and the public. These “Great Lakes Literacy Principles” represent an understanding of the Great Lakes' influences on society and society's influences on the Great Lakes.

  1. Great Principles of Computing

    OpenAIRE

    Denning, Peter J.

    2008-01-01

    The Great Principles of Computing is a framework for understanding computing as a field of science. The website ...April 2008 (Rev. 8/31/08) The Great Principles of Computing is a framework for understanding computing as a field of science.

  2. Excess seawater nutrients, enlarged algal symbiont densities and bleaching sensitive reef locations: 2. A regional-scale predictive model for the Great Barrier Reef, Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wooldridge, Scott A; Heron, Scott F; Brodie, Jon E; Done, Terence J; Masiri, Itsara; Hinrichs, Saskia

    2017-01-15

    A spatial risk assessment model is developed for the Great Barrier Reef (GBR, Australia) that helps identify reef locations at higher or lower risk of coral bleaching in summer heat-wave conditions. The model confirms the considerable benefit of discriminating nutrient-enriched areas that contain corals with enlarged (suboptimal) symbiont densities for the purpose of identifying bleaching-sensitive reef locations. The benefit of the new system-level understanding is showcased in terms of: (i) improving early-warning forecasts of summer bleaching risk, (ii) explaining historical bleaching patterns, (iii) testing the bleaching-resistant quality of the current marine protected area (MPA) network (iv) identifying routinely monitored coral health attributes, such as the tissue energy reserves and skeletal growth characteristics (viz. density and extension rates) that correlate with bleaching resistant reef locations, and (v) targeting region-specific water quality improvement strategies that may increase reef-scale coral health and bleaching resistance. Crown Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Comparison of different approaches of modelling in a masonry building

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saba, M.; Meloni, D.

    2017-12-01

    The present work has the objective to model a simple masonry building, through two different modelling methods in order to assess their validity in terms of evaluation of static stresses. Have been chosen two of the most commercial software used to address this kind of problem, which are of S.T.A. Data S.r.l. and Sismicad12 of Concrete S.r.l. While the 3Muri software adopts the Frame by Macro Elements Method (FME), which should be more schematic and more efficient, Sismicad12 software uses the Finite Element Method (FEM), which guarantees accurate results, with greater computational burden. Remarkably differences of the static stresses, for such a simple structure between the two approaches have been found, and an interesting comparison and analysis of the reasons is proposed.

  4. Processing speed, executive function, and academic achievement in children with dextro-transposition of the great arteries: Testing a longitudinal developmental cascade model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cassidy, Adam R; White, Matthew T; DeMaso, David R; Newburger, Jane W; Bellinger, David C

    2016-10-01

    To establish executive function (EF) structure/organization and test a longitudinal developmental cascade model linking processing speed (PS) and EF skills at 8-years of age to academic achievement outcomes, both at 8- and 16-years, in a large sample of children/adolescents with surgically repaired dextro-transposition of the great arteries (d-TGA). Data for this study come from the 8- (n = 155) and 16-year (n = 139) time points of the Boston Circulatory Arrest Study and included WISC-III, Trail Making Test, Test of Variables of Attention, and WIAT/WIAT-II tasks. A 2-factor model (Working Memory/Inhibition and Shifting) provided the best fit for the EF data, χ²(3) = 1.581, p = .66, RMSEA = 0, CFI = 1, NNFI = 1.044). Working Memory/Inhibition and Shifting factors were not correlated. In the structural equation model, PS was directly related to both EF factors and Reading at 8 years, and was indirectly related to Math and Reading achievement, both concurrently and longitudinally, via its effects on Working Memory/Inhibition. Shifting at 8 years was significantly associated with Math (but not Reading) at 16 years. The academic difficulties experienced by children and adolescents with d-TGA may be driven, at least in part, by underlying deficits in processing speed and aspects of executive function. Intervention efforts aimed at bolstering these abilities, particularly if implemented early in development, may prove beneficial in improving academic outcomes and, perhaps by extension, in reducing the stress and diminished self-confidence often associated with academic underachievement. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

  5. Rupture Propagation through the Big Bend of the San Andreas Fault: A Dynamic Modeling Case Study of the Great Earthquake of 1857

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lozos, J.

    2017-12-01

    The great San Andreas Fault (SAF) earthquake of 9 January 1857, estimated at M7.9, was one of California's largest historic earthquakes. Its 360 km rupture trace follows the Carrizo and Mojave segments of the SAF, including the 30° compressional Big Bend in the fault. If 1857 were a characteristic rupture, the hazard implications for southern California would be dire, especially given the inferred 150 year recurrence interval for this section of the fault. However, recent paleoseismic studies in this region suggest that 1857-type events occur less frequently than single-segment Carrizo or Mojave ruptures, and that the hinge of the Big Bend is a barrier to through-going rupture. Here, I use 3D dynamic rupture modeling to attempt to reproduce the rupture length and surface slip distribution of the 1857 earthquake, to determine which physical conditions allow rupture to negotiate the Big Bend of the SAF. These models incorporate the nonplanar geometry of the SAF, an observation-based heterogeneous regional velocity structure (SCEC CVM), and a regional stress field from seismicity literature. Under regional stress conditions, I am unable to produce model events that both match the observed surface slip on the Carrizo and Mojave segments of the SAF and include rupture through the hinge of the Big Bend. I suggest that accumulated stresses at the bend hinge from multiple smaller Carrizo or Mojave ruptures may be required to allow rupture through the bend — a concept consistent with paleoseismic observations. This study may contribute to understanding the cyclicity of hazard associated with the southern-central SAF.

  6. A CASE STUDY OF MODELING A TORUS IN DIFFERENT MODELING SOFTWARES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    VELJKOVIĆ Milica

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Modeling of the complex geometric shapes requires the use of appropriate softwares. This study analyzes the process of modeling with two different computer softwares, AutoCAD and Rhinoceros. The aim is to demonstrate the similarities and differences between these softwares when used for modeling torus, a double curved geometric surface. The two modeling processes are compared in order to investigate the potentials of these softwares in the modeling of an architectural structure comprising a shell of the torus. After a detailed comparative analysis, the essential characteristics and shortcomings of these programs are emphasized and they were used to recommend the more appropriate one.

  7. Optimal difference-based estimation for partially linear models

    KAUST Repository

    Zhou, Yuejin

    2017-12-16

    Difference-based methods have attracted increasing attention for analyzing partially linear models in the recent literature. In this paper, we first propose to solve the optimal sequence selection problem in difference-based estimation for the linear component. To achieve the goal, a family of new sequences and a cross-validation method for selecting the adaptive sequence are proposed. We demonstrate that the existing sequences are only extreme cases in the proposed family. Secondly, we propose a new estimator for the residual variance by fitting a linear regression method to some difference-based estimators. Our proposed estimator achieves the asymptotic optimal rate of mean squared error. Simulation studies also demonstrate that our proposed estimator performs better than the existing estimator, especially when the sample size is small and the nonparametric function is rough.

  8. A reasonable model or a liberal failure? The economic model in Latin America from the 1990s to the great crisis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Diego Sánchez Ancochea

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper critically evaluates the results in terms of economic growth and structural transformation of the new economic model implemented by most Latin American countries since the early 1990s. The new model, which had macroeconomic stability and export orientation as its core components, has been unable to develop more dynamic comparative advantages in the current global era and, as a result, has resulted in lower rates of economic growth than in Asia. The paper closes with an analysis of the impact of the current financial crisis in the region. It highlights the short-term costs, but also acknowledges the opportunities that the crisis is creating to promote a greater number of new progressive development alternatives that place more emphasis on the role of learning and innovation.

  9. Great Indoors Awards 2007

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    2007-01-01

    Hollandis Maastrichtis jagati 17. XI esimest korda rahvusvahelist auhinda The Great Indoors Award. Aasta sisekujundusfirmaks valiti Masamichi Katayama asutatud Wonderwall. Auhinna said veel Zaha Hadid, Heatherwick Studio, Ryui Nakamura Architects ja Item Idem

  10. Great Lakes Bathymetry

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Bathymetry of Lakes Michigan, Erie, Saint Clair, Ontario and Huron has been compiled as a component of a NOAA project to rescue Great Lakes lake floor geological and...

  11. On the representation of immersion and condensation freezing in cloud models using different nucleation schemes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Ervens

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Ice nucleation in clouds is often observed at temperatures >235 K, pointing to heterogeneous freezing as a predominant mechanism. Many models deterministically predict the number concentration of ice particles as a function of temperature and/or supersaturation. Several laboratory experiments, at constant temperature and/or supersaturation, report heterogeneous freezing as a stochastic, time-dependent process that follows classical nucleation theory; this might appear to contradict deterministic models that predict singular freezing behavior.

    We explore the extent to which the choice of nucleation scheme (deterministic/stochastic, single/multiple contact angles θ affects the prediction of the fraction of frozen ice nuclei (IN and cloud evolution for a predetermined maximum IN concentration. A box model with constant temperature and supersaturation is used to mimic published laboratory experiments of immersion freezing of monodisperse (800 nm kaolinite particles (~243 K, and the fitness of different nucleation schemes. Sensitivity studies show that agreement of all five schemes is restricted to the narrow parameter range (time, temperature, IN diameter in the original laboratory studies, and that model results diverge for a wider range of conditions.

    The schemes are implemented in an adiabatic parcel model that includes feedbacks of the formation and growth of drops and ice particles on supersaturation during ascent. Model results for the monodisperse IN population (800 nm show that these feedbacks limit ice nucleation events, often leading to smaller differences in number concentration of ice particles and ice water content (IWC between stochastic and deterministic approaches than expected from the box model studies. However, because the different parameterizations of θ distributions and time-dependencies are highly sensitive to IN size, simulations using polydisperse IN result in great differences in predicted ice number

  12. Using Health Belief Model Constructs to Examine Differences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karimy, Mahmood; Azarpira, Hossein; Araban, Marzieh

    2017-05-01

    Despite documented successful Pap tests in routine care of women, screening levels are unfortunately often lower than recommended. This study aimed to assess differences in adherence to Pap test guidelines among a sample of Iranian women using the Health Belief Model (HBM). In this descriptive and analytical study, information was collected from a total of 305 women, (age range of 15-49) from Zarandieh health centers in Iran using a random multistage sampling method. The questionnaire covered demographic characteristics; health belief model constructs were gathered by a self-report method. The results were analyzed using the independent samples t test and logistic regression in SPSS-20. A total 32% of the subjects had a history of a Pap test and the score mean of the whole constructs model (knowledge, susceptibility, severity, benefits, barriers and self-efficacy) in these individuals was higher than those without a positive history. Among the predictive variables of HBM constructs, the highest weights were observed for perceived benefits ß)=0.36), perceived susceptibility =ß) 0.35) and self-efficacy ß)=0.29). Based on our finding of positive relationships for health belief model structures with performance of a pap smear test, designing educational interventions for changing the knowledge levels and beliefs of women is recommended. Creative Commons Attribution License

  13. Using suggestion to model different types of automatic writing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walsh, E; Mehta, M A; Oakley, D A; Guilmette, D N; Gabay, A; Halligan, P W; Deeley, Q

    2014-05-01

    Our sense of self includes awareness of our thoughts and movements, and our control over them. This feeling can be altered or lost in neuropsychiatric disorders as well as in phenomena such as "automatic writing" whereby writing is attributed to an external source. Here, we employed suggestion in highly hypnotically suggestible participants to model various experiences of automatic writing during a sentence completion task. Results showed that the induction of hypnosis, without additional suggestion, was associated with a small but significant reduction of control, ownership, and awareness for writing. Targeted suggestions produced a double dissociation between thought and movement components of writing, for both feelings of control and ownership, and additionally, reduced awareness of writing. Overall, suggestion produced selective alterations in the control, ownership, and awareness of thought and motor components of writing, thus enabling key aspects of automatic writing, observed across different clinical and cultural settings, to be modelled. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  14. Model Based Analysis of Ethnic Differences in Type 2 Diabetes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Jonas Bech

    to the system. This input must reflect the circumstances in which one wants to draw conclusions. In this thesis the intake of oral glucose, which closely resembles the intake of food under daily living has been applied. Mathematical modelling of such complex physiologal phenomenas as the glucosehomeostatic...... tolerance (IGT), and T2D showed that Japanese in general have higher insulin sensitivity and lower beta-cell function compared to Caucasians. In spite of this, the pattern going from NGT toT2D appeared similar in the two cohorts and the majority of the difference in insulin sensitivity and beta...

  15. What Makes Hydrologic Models Differ? Using SUMMA to Systematically Explore Model Uncertainty and Error

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bennett, A.; Nijssen, B.; Chegwidden, O.; Wood, A.; Clark, M. P.

    2017-12-01

    Model intercomparison experiments have been conducted to quantify the variability introduced during the model development process, but have had limited success in identifying the sources of this model variability. The Structure for Unifying Multiple Modeling Alternatives (SUMMA) has been developed as a framework which defines a general set of conservation equations for mass and energy as well as a common core of numerical solvers along with the ability to set options for choosing between different spatial discretizations and flux parameterizations. SUMMA can be thought of as a framework for implementing meta-models which allows for the investigation of the impacts of decisions made during the model development process. Through this flexibility we develop a hierarchy of definitions which allows for models to be compared to one another. This vocabulary allows us to define the notion of weak equivalence between model instantiations. Through this weak equivalence we develop the concept of model mimicry, which can be used to investigate the introduction of uncertainty and error during the modeling process as well as provide a framework for identifying modeling decisions which may complement or negate one another. We instantiate SUMMA instances that mimic the behaviors of the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model and the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) by choosing modeling decisions which are implemented in each model. We compare runs from these models and their corresponding mimics across the Columbia River Basin located in the Pacific Northwest of the United States and Canada. From these comparisons, we are able to determine the extent to which model implementation has an effect on the results, as well as determine the changes in sensitivity of parameters due to these implementation differences. By examining these changes in results and sensitivities we can attempt to postulate changes in the modeling decisions which may provide better estimation of

  16. Groundwater model of the Great Basin carbonate and alluvial aquifer system version 3.0: Incorporating revisions in southwestern Utah and east central Nevada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brooks, Lynette E.

    2017-12-01

    The groundwater model described in this report is a new version of previously published steady-state numerical groundwater flow models of the Great Basin carbonate and alluvial aquifer system, and was developed in conjunction with U.S. Geological Survey studies in Parowan, Pine, and Wah Wah Valleys, Utah. This version of the model is GBCAAS v. 3.0 and supersedes previous versions. The objectives of the model for Parowan Valley were to simulate revised conceptual estimates of recharge and discharge, to estimate simulated aquifer storage properties and the amount of reduction in storage as a result of historical groundwater withdrawals, and to assess reduction in groundwater withdrawals necessary to mitigate groundwater-level declines in the basin. The objectives of the model for the area near Pine and Wah Wah Valleys were to recalibrate the model using new observations of groundwater levels and evapotranspiration of groundwater; to provide new estimates of simulated recharge, hydraulic conductivity, and interbasin flow; and to simulate the effects of proposed groundwater withdrawals on the regional flow system. Meeting these objectives required the addition of 15 transient calibration stress periods and 14 projection stress periods, aquifer storage properties, historical withdrawals in Parowan Valley, and observations of water-level changes in Parowan Valley. Recharge in Parowan Valley and withdrawal from wells in Parowan Valley and two nearby wells in Cedar City Valley vary for each calibration stress period representing conditions from March 1940 to November 2013. Stresses, including recharge, are the same in each stress period as in the steady-state stress period for all areas outside of Parowan Valley. The model was calibrated to transient conditions only in Parowan Valley. Simulated storage properties outside of Parowan Valley were set the same as the Parowan Valley properties and are not considered calibrated. Model observations in GBCAAS v. 3.0 are

  17. Investigation of thermalization in giant-spin models by different Lindblad schemes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Beckmann, Christian; Schnack, Jürgen, E-mail: jschnack@uni-bielefeld.de

    2017-09-01

    Highlights: • The non-equilibrium magnetization is investigated with quantum master equations that rest on Lindblad schemes. • It is studied how different couplings to the bath modify the magnetization. • Various field protocols are employed; relaxation times are deduced. • Result: the time evolution depends strongly on the details of the transition operator used in the Lindblad term. - Abstract: The theoretical understanding of time-dependence in magnetic quantum systems is of great importance in particular for cases where a unitary time evolution is accompanied by relaxation processes. A key example is given by the dynamics of single-molecule magnets where quantum tunneling of the magnetization competes with thermal relaxation over the anisotropy barrier. In this article we investigate how good a Lindblad approach describes the relaxation in giant spin models and how the result depends on the employed operator that transmits the action of the thermal bath.

  18. Comparing Productivity Simulated with Inventory Data Using Different Modelling Technologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klopf, M.; Pietsch, S. A.; Hasenauer, H.

    2009-04-01

    The Lime Stone National Park in Austria was established in 1997 to protect sensible lime stone soils from degradation due to heavy forest management. Since 1997 the management activities were successively reduced and standing volume and coarse woody debris (CWD) increased and degraded soils began to recover. One option to study the rehabilitation process towards natural virgin forest state is the use of modelling technology. In this study we will test two different modelling approaches for their applicability to Lime Stone National Park. We will compare standing tree volume simulated resulting from (i) the individual tree growth model MOSES, and (ii) the species and management sensitive adaptation of the biogeochemical-mechanistic model Biome-BGC. The results from the two models are compared with filed observations form repeated permanent forest inventory plots of the Lime Stone National Park in Austria. The simulated CWD predictions of the BGC-model were compared with dead wood measurements (standing and lying dead wood) recorded at the permanent inventory plots. The inventory was established between 1994 and 1996 and remeasured from 2004 to 2005. For this analysis 40 plots of this inventory were selected which comprise the required dead wood components and are dominated by a single tree species. First we used the distance dependant individual tree growth model MOSES to derive the standing timber and the amount of mortality per hectare. MOSES is initialized with the inventory data at plot establishment and each sampling plot is treated as forest stand. The Biome-BGC is a process based biogeochemical model with extensions for Austrian tree species, a self initialization and a forest management tool. The initialization for the actual simulations with the BGC model was done as follows: We first used spin up runs to derive a balanced forest vegetation, similar to an undisturbed forest. Next we considered the management history of the past centuries (heavy clear cuts

  19. Analysis of different training models for handball goalkeepers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alejandro Muñoz Moreno

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available The importance of the goalkeeper for the team performance is critical, however, publications on specific preparation are few in number, with no clear lines of work. The present study aims to analyze the different methodologies used in the specific training handball goalkeeper, by setting what the different training models as well as deepen the potential applications of each.For this purpose, it was conducted an extensive literature review, categorizing each document based on the performance factor on which prioritizes: physical-technical, perceptual and tactical. The analysis of results found that there were no other models than those categorized, being more numerous publications falling under physical and technical training, followed by the perceptive and very few exist on tactical training. In light of the results seems essential to conduct a specific training program for goalkeeper, taking into account the most relevant variables for optimal performance. No single factor seems more relevant to any stage of training, it being necessary to deepen it.Keywords: specific training, perception, decision making, tactical

  20. COMPARISON BETWEEN DIFFERENT MODELS FOR RHEOLOGICAL CHARACTERIZATION OF ACTIVATED SLUDGE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. H. Khalili Garakani

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Activated sludge flow rheology is a very complicated phenomenon. Studies related to activated sludge tend to classify sludge as non-Newtonian fluid. Until now, several theories have been built to describe the complex behavior of activated sludge with varying degrees of success. In this article, seven different models for viscosity of non-Newtonian fluids (i.e., Power law, Bingham plastic, Herschel-Bulkley, Casson, Sisko, Carreau and Cross were considered to evaluate their predictive capability of apparent viscosity of activated sludge. Results showed that although evaluating the constants in the four-parameter models is difficult, they provide the best prediction of viscosity in the whole range of shear rates for activated sludge. For easier prediction of viscosity at different mixed liquor suspended solids (2.74-31g/L, temperature (15-25°C and shear rate (1-1000/s, simple correlations were proposed. Comparing the results with the experimental data revealed that the proposed correlations are in good agreement with real apparent viscosities.

  1. Different Models for Forecasting Wind Power Generation: Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Barbosa de Alencar

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Generation of electric energy through wind turbines is one of the practically inexhaustible alternatives of generation. It is considered a source of clean energy, but still needs a lot of research for the development of science and technologies that ensures uniformity in generation, providing a greater participation of this source in the energy matrix, since the wind presents abrupt variations in speed, density and other important variables. In wind-based electrical systems, it is essential to predict at least one day in advance the future values of wind behavior, in order to evaluate the availability of energy for the next period, which is relevant information in the dispatch of the generating units and in the control of the electrical system. This paper develops ultra-short, short, medium and long-term prediction models of wind speed, based on computational intelligence techniques, using artificial neural network models, Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA and hybrid models including forecasting using wavelets. For the application of the methodology, the meteorological variables of the database of the national organization system of environmental data (SONDA, Petrolina station, from 1 January 2004 to 31 March 2017, were used. A comparison among results by different used approaches is also done and it is also predicted the possibility of power and energy generation using a certain kind of wind generator.

  2. Spatial connections in regional climate model rainfall outputs at different temporal scales: Application of network theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naufan, Ihsan; Sivakumar, Bellie; Woldemeskel, Fitsum M.; Raghavan, Srivatsan V.; Vu, Minh Tue; Liong, Shie-Yui

    2018-01-01

    Understanding the spatial and temporal variability of rainfall has always been a great challenge, and the impacts of climate change further complicate this issue. The present study employs the concepts of complex networks to study the spatial connections in rainfall, with emphasis on climate change and rainfall scaling. Rainfall outputs (during 1961-1990) from a regional climate model (i.e. Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model that downscaled the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts, ECMWF ERA-40 reanalyses) over Southeast Asia are studied, and data corresponding to eight different temporal scales (6-hr, 12-hr, daily, 2-day, 4-day, weekly, biweekly, and monthly) are analyzed. Two network-based methods are applied to examine the connections in rainfall: clustering coefficient (a measure of the network's local density) and degree distribution (a measure of the network's spread). The influence of rainfall correlation threshold (T) on spatial connections is also investigated by considering seven different threshold levels (ranging from 0.5 to 0.8). The results indicate that: (1) rainfall networks corresponding to much coarser temporal scales exhibit properties similar to that of small-world networks, regardless of the threshold; (2) rainfall networks corresponding to much finer temporal scales may be classified as either small-world networks or scale-free networks, depending upon the threshold; and (3) rainfall spatial connections exhibit a transition phase at intermediate temporal scales, especially at high thresholds. These results suggest that the most appropriate model for studying spatial connections may often be different at different temporal scales, and that a combination of small-world and scale-free network models might be more appropriate for rainfall upscaling/downscaling across all scales, in the strict sense of scale-invariance. The results also suggest that spatial connections in the studied rainfall networks in Southeast Asia are

  3. Dosha brain-types: A neural model of individual differences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Travis, Frederick T; Wallace, Robert Keith

    2015-01-01

    This paper explores brain patterns associated with the three categories of regulatory principles of the body, mind, and behavior in Ayurveda, called Vata, Pitta, and Kapha dosha. A growing body of research has reported patterns of blood chemistry, genetic expression, physiological states, and chronic diseases associated with each dosha type. Since metabolic and growth factors are controlled by the nervous system, each dosha type should be associated with patterns of functioning of six major areas of the nervous system: The prefrontal cortex, the reticular activating system, the autonomic nervous system, the enteric nervous system, the limbic system, and the hypothalamus. For instance, the prefrontal cortex, which includes the anterior cingulate, ventral medial, and the dorsal lateral cortices, would exhibit a high range of functioning in the Vata brain-type leading to the possibility of being easily overstimulated. The Vata brain-type performs activity quickly. Learns quickly and forgets quickly. Their fast mind gives them an edge in creative problem solving. The Pitta brain-type reacts strongly to all challenges leading to purposeful and resolute actions. They never give up and are very dynamic and goal oriented. The Kapha brain-type is slow and steady leading to methodical thinking and action. They prefer routine and needs stimulation to get going. A model of dosha brain-types could provide a physiological foundation to understand individual differences. This model could help individualize treatment modalities to address different mental and physical dysfunctions. It also could explain differences in behavior seen in clinical as well as in normal populations.

  4. Dosha brain-types: A neural model of individual differences

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frederick T Travis

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper explores brain patterns associated with the three categories of regulatory principles of the body, mind, and behavior in Ayurveda, called Vata, Pitta, and Kapha dosha. A growing body of research has reported patterns of blood chemistry, genetic expression, physiological states, and chronic diseases associated with each dosha type. Since metabolic and growth factors are controlled by the nervous system, each dosha type should be associated with patterns of functioning of six major areas of the nervous system: The prefrontal cortex, the reticular activating system, the autonomic nervous system, the enteric nervous system, the limbic system, and the hypothalamus. For instance, the prefrontal cortex, which includes the anterior cingulate, ventral medial, and the dorsal lateral cortices, would exhibit a high range of functioning in the Vata brain-type leading to the possibility of being easily overstimulated. The Vata brain-type performs activity quickly. Learns quickly and forgets quickly. Their fast mind gives them an edge in creative problem solving. The Pitta brain-type reacts strongly to all challenges leading to purposeful and resolute actions. They never give up and are very dynamic and goal oriented. The Kapha brain-type is slow and steady leading to methodical thinking and action. They prefer routine and needs stimulation to get going. A model of dosha brain-types could provide a physiological foundation to understand individual differences. This model could help individualize treatment modalities to address different mental and physical dysfunctions. It also could explain differences in behavior seen in clinical as well as in normal populations.

  5. Equivalence and Differences between Structural Equation Modeling and State-Space Modeling Techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chow, Sy-Miin; Ho, Moon-ho R.; Hamaker, Ellen L.; Dolan, Conor V.

    2010-01-01

    State-space modeling techniques have been compared to structural equation modeling (SEM) techniques in various contexts but their unique strengths have often been overshadowed by their similarities to SEM. In this article, we provide a comprehensive discussion of these 2 approaches' similarities and differences through analytic comparisons and…

  6. Comparison of different statistical modelling approaches for deriving spatial air temperature patterns in an urban environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Straub, Annette; Beck, Christoph; Breitner, Susanne; Cyrys, Josef; Geruschkat, Uta; Jacobeit, Jucundus; Kühlbach, Benjamin; Kusch, Thomas; Richter, Katja; Schneider, Alexandra; Umminger, Robin; Wolf, Kathrin

    2017-04-01

    Frequently spatial variations of air temperature of considerable magnitude occur within urban areas. They correspond to varying land use/land cover characteristics and vary with season, time of day and synoptic conditions. These temperature differences have an impact on human health and comfort directly by inducing thermal stress as well as indirectly by means of affecting air quality. Therefore, knowledge of the spatial patterns of air temperature in cities and the factors causing them is of great importance, e.g. for urban planners. A multitude of studies have shown statistical modelling to be a suitable tool for generating spatial air temperature patterns. This contribution presents a comparison of different statistical modelling approaches for deriving spatial air temperature patterns in the urban environment of Augsburg, Southern Germany. In Augsburg there exists a measurement network for air temperature and humidity currently comprising 48 stations in the city and its rural surroundings (corporately operated by the Institute of Epidemiology II, Helmholtz Zentrum München, German Research Center for Environmental Health and the Institute of Geography, University of Augsburg). Using different datasets for land surface characteristics (Open Street Map, Urban Atlas) area percentages of different types of land cover were calculated for quadratic buffer zones of different size (25, 50, 100, 250, 500 m) around the stations as well for source regions of advective air flow and used as predictors together with additional variables such as sky view factor, ground level and distance from the city centre. Multiple Linear Regression and Random Forest models for different situations taking into account season, time of day and weather condition were applied utilizing selected subsets of these predictors in order to model spatial distributions of mean hourly and daily air temperature deviations from a rural reference station. Furthermore, the different model setups were

  7. Journeys to greatness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crease, Robert P.

    2009-02-01

    Readers, I hope, will forgive me for a shameless bit of self-publicity about my latest book, The Great Equations: Breakthroughs in Science from Pythagoras to Heisenberg (Norton). But then the book is partly yours too, inspired as it was by the responses of Physics World readers to my request for suggestions of great equations (October 2004 pp14-15). In the book, I chose to discuss not the most frequently mentioned equations, but those that seem to have engaged their discoverers in the most remarkable journeys.

  8. Nothing Great Is Easy

    OpenAIRE

    Stansbie, Lisa

    2014-01-01

    A solo exhibition of 13 pieces of art work.\\ud \\ud Nothing Great is Easy is an exhibition of sculpture, film, drawing and photography that proposes reconstructed narratives using the sport of swimming and in particular the collective interaction and identity of the channel swimmer. The work utilises the processes, rituals/rules, language and the apparatus of sport.\\ud \\ud “Nothing great is easy” are the words on the memorial to Captain Matthew Webb who was the first man to swim the English ch...

  9. Different Effects of Pravastatin on Preeclampsia-like Symptoms in Different Mouse Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huai, Jing; Yang, Zi; Yi, Yan-Hong; Wang, Guang-Jiao

    2018-02-20

    Pravastatin (Pra) exerts protective effects on preeclampsia. Preeclampsia is a multifactorial and pathogenic pathway syndrome. The present study compared the effects of Pra on clinical manifestations of preeclampsia in different pathogenic pathways. Two different preeclampsia-like mouse models used in this study were generated with Nω-nitro-L-arginine methyl ester (L-NAME) and used lipopolysaccharide (LPS) from day 7 of gestation, respectively. Pra treatment was administered on day 2 after the models were established in each group (L-NAME + Pra, LPS + Pra, and Control + Pra, n = 8) or normal saline (NS) for the control group (L-NAME + NS, LPS + NS, and Control + NS, n = 8). Maternal weight, serum lipids, the histopathological changes, and lipid deposition in the liver and placenta were observed. The pregnancy outcomes were compared. The blood pressure analysis was carried out on repeated measurements of variance. Student's t-test was used for comparing the two groups. The enumeration data were compared by Chi-square test. The mean arterial pressure (MAP) and 24-h urinary protein in the L-NAME + NS and LPS + NS groups were significantly higher than the Control + NS group (F = 211.05 and 309.92 for MAP, t = 6.63 and 8.63 for 24-h urinary protein; all P Pra group as compared to the L-NAME + NS group (F = 208.60 for MAP, t = 6.77 for urinary protein; both P Pra group as compared to the LPS + NS group (t = 5.33; P 0.05). Compared to the Control + NS group, the placental efficiency in the L-NAME + NS and LPS + NS groups decreased significantly (t = 3.09 and 2.89, respectively; both P Pra and LPS + Pra groups (t = 1.37 and 0.58, respectively; both P > 0.05). Free fatty acid was elevated in the L-NAME + NS group as compared to the Control + NS group (t = 3.99; P Pra group as compared to the L-NAME + NS group (t = 3.28; P 0.05). This study suggested that Pra affected the clinical manifestations differently in preeclampsia-like mouse models generated in various pathogenic

  10. Understanding Differences in Chemistry Climate Model Projections of Stratospheric Ozone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Douglass, A. R.; Strahan, S. E.; Oman, L. D.; Stolarski, R. S.

    2014-01-01

    Chemistry climate models (CCMs) are used to project future evolution of stratospheric ozone as concentrations of ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) decrease and greenhouse gases increase, cooling the stratosphere. CCM projections exhibit not only many common features but also a broad range of values for quantities such as year of ozone return to 1980 and global ozone level at the end of the 21st century. Multiple linear regression is applied to each of 14 CCMs to separate ozone response to ODS concentration change from that due to climate change. We show that the sensitivity of lower stratospheric ozone to chlorine change Delta Ozone/Delta inorganic chlorine is a near-linear function of partitioning of total inorganic chlorine into its reservoirs; both inorganic chlorine and its partitioning are largely controlled by lower stratospheric transport. CCMs with best performance on transport diagnostics agree with observations for chlorine reservoirs and produce similar ozone responses to chlorine change. After 2035, differences in Delta Ozone/Delta inorganic chlorine contribute little to the spread in CCM projections as the anthropogenic contribution to inorganic chlorine becomes unimportant. Differences among upper stratospheric ozone increases due to temperature decreases are explained by differences in ozone sensitivity to temperature change Delta Ozone/Delta T due to different contributions from various ozone loss processes, each with its own temperature dependence. Ozone decrease in the tropical lower stratosphere caused by a projected speedup in the Brewer-Dobson circulation may or may not be balanced by ozone increases in the middle- and high-latitude lower stratosphere and upper troposphere. This balance, or lack thereof, contributes most to the spread in late 21st century projections.

  11. A finite difference model for cMUT devices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Certon, Dominique; Teston, Franck; Patat, Frédéric

    2005-12-01

    A finite difference method was implemented to simulate capacitive micromachined ultrasonic transducers (cMUTs) and compared to models described in the literature such as finite element methods. Similar results were obtained. It was found that one master curve described the clamped capacitance. We introduced normalized capacitance versus normalized bias voltage and metallization rate, independent of layer thickness, gap height, and size membrane, leading to the determination of a coupling factor master curve. We present here calculations and measurements of electrical impedance for cMUTs. An electromechanical equivalent circuit was used to perform simulations. Our experimental measurements confirmed the theoretical results in terms of resonance, anti-resonance frequencies, clamped capacitance, and electromechanical coupling factor. Due to inhomogeneity of the tested element array and strong parasitic capacitance between cells, the maximum coupling coefficient value achieved was 0.27. Good agreement with theory was obtained for all findings.

  12. Drosophila Cancer Models Identify Functional Differences between Ret Fusions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sarah Levinson

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available We generated and compared Drosophila models of RET fusions CCDC6-RET and NCOA4-RET. Both RET fusions directed cells to migrate, delaminate, and undergo EMT, and both resulted in lethality when broadly expressed. In all phenotypes examined, NCOA4-RET was more severe than CCDC6-RET, mirroring their effects on patients. A functional screen against the Drosophila kinome and a library of cancer drugs found that CCDC6-RET and NCOA4-RET acted through different signaling networks and displayed distinct drug sensitivities. Combining data from the kinome and drug screens identified the WEE1 inhibitor AZD1775 plus the multi-kinase inhibitor sorafenib as a synergistic drug combination that is specific for NCOA4-RET. Our work emphasizes the importance of identifying and tailoring a patient’s treatment to their specific RET fusion isoform and identifies a multi-targeted therapy that may prove effective against tumors containing the NCOA4-RET fusion.

  13. Finite-difference modeling of commercial aircraft using TSAR

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pennock, S.T.; Poggio, A.J.

    1994-11-15

    Future aircraft may have systems controlled by fiber optic cables, to reduce susceptibility to electromagnetic interference. However, the digital systems associated with the fiber optic network could still experience upset due to powerful radio stations, radars, and other electromagnetic sources, with potentially serious consequences. We are modeling the electromagnetic behavior of commercial transport aircraft in support of the NASA Fly-by-Light/Power-by-Wire program, using the TSAR finite-difference time-domain code initially developed for the military. By comparing results obtained from TSAR with data taken on a Boeing 757 at the Air Force Phillips Lab., we hope to show that FDTD codes can serve as an important tool in the design and certification of U.S. commercial aircraft, helping American companies to produce safe, reliable air transportation.

  14. Vortex rope patterns at different load of hydro turbine model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Skripkin Sergey

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Operation of hydraulic turbines beyond optimal conditions leads to formation of precessing vortex core in a draft tube that generates powerful pressure pulsations in a hydraulic system. In case of resonance it leads to stability decreasing of hydraulic unit and electrical grid on the whole. In present work, such regimes are explored in a conical part of simplified turbine model. Studies are performed at constant flowrate Q = 70 m3/h and varying the runner rotational speed to explore different loads of the hydroturbine unit. The experiments involve pressure measurements, high speed-visualization and velocity measurements by means of laser Doppler anemometer technique. Interesting finding is related with abrupt increasing precession frequency at low swirl parameter of flow near optimal regime.

  15. Great Barrier Reef

    Science.gov (United States)

    2002-01-01

    A better than average view of the Great Barrier Reef was captured by SeaWiFS on a recent overpass. There is sunglint northeast of the reef and there appears to be some sort of filamentous bloom in the Capricorn Channel.

  16. Family and family education model in parish press of Great Poland in 2 Polish Republic: „Tygodnik Parafji Zbąszynskiej” example

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MIROSŁAW PIWOWARCZYK

    2017-10-01

    education, coherent with social teaching of catholic chuch and ideology of nationalist parties. Magazine often published articles on social pedagogy, citizenship, patriotic, religious, moral and family education in “the spirit of catholic and national values”. With great passion magazine propagated catholic model of family, specific rules of family life, patterns of family, education, wife and mother, husband and father, children, ideal of good Polish woman and house wife, ideal of good Polish man, husband and father. Specific roles and tasks were associated with them, obligations of parents towards children were also expressed. Very often articles included advises and canceling on mother-children relationship. There were attempts of creation of positive attitudes of children towards parents based on the use of examples. There were also articles stressing the meaning and significance of shared responsibility and actions of school and home in education towards child benefit. Most of the articles published in had a didactic, ideologist and moralizing character it was a tool for fulfillment of specific goals of “spiritual powers”. Despite that kind of single-tract perspective on educational issues magazine gained a wide popularity and respect within local community of Zbąszyń and its area. Presented attitude remained coherent with politically and morally (religiously educated community and simply mirrored ideas shared by the majority of citizens. There is no doubt tat it played a significant role in construction of specific cultural character of Zbąszyń in the Interwar Period and education of its citizens.

  17. The Next Great Science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hodges, K. V.

    2007-12-01

    Earth science --- when defined as the study of all biological, chemical, and physical processes that interact to define the behavior of the Earth system --- has direct societal relevance equal to or greater than that any other branch of science. However, "geology", "geoscience", and "Earth science" departments are contracting at many universities and even disappearing at some. This irony speaks volumes about the limitations of the traditional university structure that partitions educational and research programs into specific disciplines, each housed in its own department. Programs that transcend disciplinary boundaries are difficult to fit into the traditional structure and are thus highly vulnerable to threats such as chronic underfunding by university administrations, low enrollments in more advanced subjects, and being largely forgotten during capital campaigns. Dramatic improvements in this situation will require a different way of thinking about earth science programs by university administrations. As Earth scientists, our goal must not be to protect "traditional" geology departments, but rather to achieve a sustainable programmatic future for broader academic programs that focus on Earth evolution from past, present, and future perspectives. The first step toward meeting this goal must be to promote a more holistic definition of Earth science that includes modes of inquiry more commonly found in engineering and social science departments. We must think of Earth science as a meta-discipline that includes core components of physics, geology, chemistry, biology, and the emerging science of complexity. We must recognize that new technologies play an increasingly important role in our ability to monitor global environmental change, and thus our educational programs must include basic training in the modes of analysis employed by engineers as well as those employed by scientists. One of the most important lessons we can learn from the engineering community is the

  18. SAPS and SAID: Differences and implications on modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, P. C.; Landry, R. G.

    2017-12-01

    Large subauroral electric fields/ion drifts associated with geomagnetic activity and known as Polarization Jets [Galperin et al., 1973] or subauroral ion drifts (SAID) [Spiro et al., 1978] have been reported by a number of researchers over the years starting in the early 1970s. They are latitudinally narrow ( 1 - 3°), are primarily located between the late afternoon and early morning sectors, are extended several hours in magnetic local time, and have westward drifts that can exceed 5000 m/s. Foster et al., [2002] used Millstone Hill radar data to derive a statistical model of the subauroral ion drifts and coined the term SAPS (Subauroral Polarization Streams) to identify the sometimes broad region of subauroral drifts that the SAID are embedded within. While both are located in the subauroral region and closely associated with ionospheric conductivity and the region 2 field-aligned currents, they are in reality separate phenomena. We investigate this difference, their production mechanisms, and the implications for modeling them.

  19. Toxicity to Daphnia pulex and QSAR predictions for polycyclic hydrocarbons representative of Great Lakes contaminants

    Science.gov (United States)

    Passino-Reader, D.R.; Hickey, J.P.; Ogilvie, L.M.

    1997-01-01

    The objectives of this study were (1) to determine the toxicity of several types of polycyclic hydrocarbons characteristic of Great Lakes samples to Daphnia pulex, a Great Lakes zooplankter, (2) to investigate the influence of different structural characteristics on toxicity, and (3) to determine the linear solvation energy relationship (LSER) parameters and model that describe these compounds. These results will be related to comparative toxicity of other Great Lakes environmental compounds and to their application in site specific risk assessment.

  20. Comparison of different initiation protocols in the resistant hepatocyte model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Espandiari, Parvaneh; Robertson, Larry W.; Srinivasan, Cidambi; Glauert, Howard P.

    2005-01-01

    Several models in rat liver have been developed to study multistage carcinogenesis, including the Solt-Farber resistant hepatocyte model. In this model, initiation consists of either a necrogenic dose of a hepatocarcinogen or a non-necrogenic dose in conjunction with partial hepatectomy (PH). As an alternative to PH, we investigated two different procedures: fasting for 96 h followed by refeeding, or the use of one-day-old neonates. Male Fisher 344 rats were injected p.o. with diethylnitrosamine (DEN) (0, 20, or 100 mg/kg) 24 h after refeeding or PH (controls received DEN alone with no proliferative stimulus). For the neonatal group, male and female Fisher 344 rats were treated with DEN (0 or 20 mg/kg, i.p.) at one day of age. All initiated animals were treated at the same age (11 weeks) with the following selection agents: three daily doses of 2-acetylaminofluorene (AAF) (30 mg/kg), followed by a single dose of carbon tetrachloride (2 ml/kg), followed by three additional daily treatments of AAF (30 mg/kg). Rats were euthanized 2 weeks after the last AAF injection. The PH, neonatal male, and neonatal female groups receiving DEN developed more γ-glutamyl transpeptidase (GGT)-positive foci per cubic centimeter and foci per liver as compared to untreated rats receiving the same proliferative stimulus, whereas the fasting/refeeding group and the group receiving no proliferative stimulus did not. All DEN-treated groups receiving one of the proliferative stimuli had more foci per cubic centimeter than the DEN-treated group receiving no proliferative stimulus. The volume fractions of GGT-positive foci in the PH/DEN and neonatal male/DEN groups were higher than those of both the DEN-treated group receiving no proliferative stimulus and the groups receiving the same proliferative stimulus without DEN. In neonatal females-receiving DEN, the volume fraction was not different from either neonatal females not receiving DEN or DEN-treated rats receiving no proliferative

  1. Qualitative and quantitative examination of the performance of regional air quality models representing different modeling approaches

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bhumralkar, C.M.; Ludwig, F.L.; Shannon, J.D.; McNaughton, D.

    1985-04-01

    The calculations of three different air quality models were compared with the best available observations. The comparisons were made without calibrating the models to improve agreement with the observations. Model performance was poor for short averaging times (less than 24 hours). Some of the poor performance can be traced to errors in the input meteorological fields, but error exist on all levels. It should be noted that these models were not originally designed for treating short-term episodes. For short-term episodes, much of the variance in the data can arise from small spatial scale features that tend to be averaged out over longer periods. These small spatial scale features cannot be resolved with the coarse grids that are used for the meteorological and emissions inputs. Thus, it is not surprising that the models performed for the longer averaging times. The models compared were RTM-II, ENAMAP-2 and ACID. (17 refs., 5 figs., 4 tabs

  2. Comparison between different approaches to modeling shallow landslide susceptibility: a case history in Oltrepo Pavese, Northern Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zizioli, D.; Meisina, C.; Valentino, R.; Montrasio, L.

    2013-03-01

    On the 27 and 28 April 2009, the area of Oltrepo Pavese in northern Italy was affected by a very intense rainfall event that caused a great number of shallow landslides. These instabilities occurred on slopes covered by vineyards or recently formed woodlands and caused damage to many roads and one human loss. Based on aerial photographs taken immediately after the event and field surveys, more than 1600 landslides were detected. After acquiring topographical data, geotechnical properties of the soils and land use, susceptibility analysis on a territorial scale was carried out. In particular, different physically based models were applied to two contiguous sites with the same geological context but different typologies and sizes of shallow landslides. This paper presents the comparison between the ex-post results obtained from the different approaches. On the basis of the observed landslide localizations, the accuracy of the different models was evaluated, and the significant results are highlighted.

  3. Evaluation and QSAR modeling on multiple endpoints of estrogen activity based on different bioassays.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Huanxiang; Papa, Ester; Gramatica, Paola

    2008-02-01

    There is a great need for an effective means of rapidly assessing endocrine-disrupting activity, especially estrogen-simulating activity, due to the large number of chemicals that have serious adverse effects on the environment. Many approaches using a variety of biological screening assays are used to identify endocrine disrupting chemicals. The present investigation analyzes the consistency and peculiarity of information from different experimental assays collected from a literature survey, by studying the correlation of the different endpoints. In addition, the activity values of more widely used selected bioassays have been combined by principle components analysis (PCA) to build one cumulative endpoint, the estrogen activity index (EAI), for priority setting to identify chemicals most likely possessing estrogen activity for early entry into screening. This index was then modeled using only a few theoretical molecular descriptors. The constructed MLR-QSAR model has been statistically validated for its predictive power, and can be proposed as a preliminary evaluative method to screen/prioritize estrogens according to their integrated estrogen activity, just starting from molecular structure.

  4. Application of a circulation model in waters, based in the difference method, for bays

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rosa, P.A.C.

    1985-01-01

    The Knowledge of circulation of water in bays, in addition to the possibility of simulation future conditions, can be of great interest in solving problems related to the cooling water for Nuclear Power Plants, study of sediments and water polution, in addition to the study of civil engineering works planned in bays. A Numerical Circulation Model of water in bays, is applied to the conditions of Sepetiba Bay at Rio de Janeiro coast. This System of Partial Differential Equations that constitute the Model, were solved by the Finite Difference Method, using a uniform cartesian grid for uniform time steps generating a bi-dimensional flow measurement of depth. The results obtained by comparing the values of the Model and measurements taken a bay were satisfactory, assuring its credibility and efficiency. A programming code was developed for the application providing outputing at any preditermined time steps, with discrimination of 30 seconds, the average levels, flows, velocities and depths of water of each grid spacing along the length of the bay in addition to a graphic of the flow. (Author) [pt

  5. The accuracy of the National Equine Database in relation to vector-borne disease risk modelling of horses in Great Britain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robin, C A; Lo Iacono, G; Gubbins, S; Wood, J L N; Newton, J R

    2013-05-01

    The National Equine Database (NED) contains information on the size and distribution of the horse population, but the data quality remains unknown. These data could assist with surveillance, research and contingency planning for equine infectious disease outbreaks. 1) To assess the extent of obsolete and missing data from NED, 2) evaluate the extent of spatial separation between horse and owner location and 3) identify relationships between spatial separation and land use. Two questionnaires were used to assess data accuracy in NED utilising local authority passport inspections and distribution of questionnaires to 11,000 horse owners. A subset of 1010 questionnaires was used to assess horse-owner geographic separation. During 2005-2010, 17,048 passports were checked through local authority inspections. Of these, 1558 passports (9.1%; 95% confidence interval [CI] 8.7-9.5%) were noncompliant, with 963 (5.6%; 95% CI 5.3-6.0%) containing inaccurate information and 595 (3.5%; 95% CI 3.2-3.8%) classified as missing. Of 1382 questionnaires completed by horse owners, 380 passports were obsolete (27.5%; 95% CI 25.2-29.9%), with 162 (11.7%; 95% CI 10.0-13.4%) being retained for deceased horses and 218 (15.8%; 95% CI 13.9-17.7%) having incorrect ownership details. Fifty-three per cent (95% CI 49.9-56.1%) of owners kept their horse(s) at home and 92% (95% CI 90.3-93.7%) of horses resided within 10 km of their owners. Data from a small sample survey suggest the majority of data on NED are accurate but a proportion of inaccuracies exist that may cause delay in locating horses and contacting owners during a disease outbreak. The probability that horses are located in the same postcode sector as the owner's home address is larger in rural areas. Appropriate adjustment for population size, horse-owner spatial separation and land usage would facilitate meaningful use of the national horse population derived from NED for risk modelling of incursions of equine diseases into Great

  6. A ROADMAP FOR GENERATING SEMANTICALLY ENRICHED BUILDING MODELS ACCORDING TO CITYGML MODEL VIA TWO DIFFERENT METHODOLOGIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Floros

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The methodologies of 3D modeling techniques have increasingly increased due to the rapid advances of new technologies. Nowadays, the focus of 3D modeling software is focused, not only to the finest visualization of the models, but also in their semantic features during the modeling procedure. As a result, the models thus generated are both realistic and semantically enriched. Additionally, various extensions of modeling software allow for the immediate conversion of the model’s format, via semi-automatic procedures with respect to the user’s scope. The aim of this paper is to investigate the generation of a semantically enriched Citygml building model via two different methodologies. The first methodology includes the modeling in Trimble SketchUp and the transformation in FME Desktop Manager, while the second methodology includes the model’s generation in CityEngine and its transformation in the CityGML format via the 3DCitiesProject extension for ArcGIS. Finally, the two aforesaid methodologies are being compared and specific characteristics are evaluated, in order to infer the methodology that is best applied depending on the different projects’ purposes.

  7. Soft sensor modelling by time difference, recursive partial least squares and adaptive model updating

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fu, Y; Xu, O; Yang, W; Zhou, L; Wang, J

    2017-01-01

    To investigate time-variant and nonlinear characteristics in industrial processes, a soft sensor modelling method based on time difference, moving-window recursive partial least square (PLS) and adaptive model updating is proposed. In this method, time difference values of input and output variables are used as training samples to construct the model, which can reduce the effects of the nonlinear characteristic on modelling accuracy and retain the advantages of recursive PLS algorithm. To solve the high updating frequency of the model, a confidence value is introduced, which can be updated adaptively according to the results of the model performance assessment. Once the confidence value is updated, the model can be updated. The proposed method has been used to predict the 4-carboxy-benz-aldehyde (CBA) content in the purified terephthalic acid (PTA) oxidation reaction process. The results show that the proposed soft sensor modelling method can reduce computation effectively, improve prediction accuracy by making use of process information and reflect the process characteristics accurately. (paper)

  8. Modelling whole blood oxygen equilibrium: comparison of nine different models fitted to normal human data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Riordan, J F; Goldstick, T K; Vida, L N; Honig, G R; Ernest, J T

    1985-01-01

    The ability of nine different models, prominent in the literature, to meaningfully characterize the oxygen-hemoglobin equilibrium curve (OHEC) of normal individuals was examined. Previously reported data (N = 33), obtained using the DCA-1 (Radiometer, Copenhagen), and new data (N = 8), obtained using the Hemox-Analyzer (TCS, Southampton, PA), from blood samples of normal, non-smoking volunteers were used and these devices were found to give statistically similar results. The OHECs were digitized and fitted to the models using least-squares techniques developed in this laboratory. The "goodness-of-fit" was determined by the root-mean-squared (RMS) error, the number of parameters, and the parameter redundancy, i.e., correlation between the parameters. The best RMS error did not necessarily indicate the best model. Most literature models consist of ratios of similar-order polynomials. These showed considerable parameter redundancy which made the curve fitting difficult. The best fits gave RMS errors as low as 0.2% saturation. The Hill model gave a good characterization over the saturation range 20%-98% with RMS errors of about 0.6% saturation. On the other hand, good characterizations over the entire range were given by several other models. The relative advantages and disadvantages of each model have been compared as well as the difficulties in fitting several of the models. No single model is best under all circumstances. The best model depends upon the particular circumstances for which it is to be utilized.

  9. Great Lakes Energy Institute

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alexander, J. Iwan [Case Western Reserve Univ., Cleveland, OH (United States)

    2012-11-18

    The vision of the Great Lakes Energy Institute is to enable the transition to advanced, sustainable energy generation, storage, distribution and utilization through coordinated research, development, and education. The Institute will place emphasis on translating leading edge research into next generation energy technology. The Institute’s research thrusts focus on coordinated research in decentralized power generation devices (e.g. fuel cells, wind turbines, solar photovoltaic devices), management of electrical power transmission and distribution, energy storage, and energy efficiency.

  10. Landscape-scale modeling of water quality in Lake Superior and Lake Michigan watersheds: How useful are forest-based indicators? Journal of Great Lakes Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Titus S. Seilheimer; Patrick L. Zimmerman; Kirk M. Stueve; Charles H. Perry

    2013-01-01

    The Great Lakes watersheds have an important influence on the water quality of the nearshore environment, therefore, watershed characteristics can be used to predict what will be observed in the streams. We used novel landscape information describing the forest cover change, along with forest census data and established land cover data to predict total phosphorus and...

  11. Great Salt Lake, Utah

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stephens, Doyle W.; Gardner, Joe F.

    1999-01-01

    This document is intended as a source of general information and facts about Great Salt Lake, Utah. This U.S. Geological Survey information sheet answers frequently asked questions about Great Salt Lake. Topics include: History, salinity, brine shrimp, brine flies, migratory birds, and recreation. Great Salt Lake, the shrunken remnant of prehistoric Lake Bonneville, has no outlet. Dissolved salts accumulate in the lake by evaporation. Salinity south of the causeway has ranged from 6 percent to 27 percent over a period of 22 years (2 to 7 times saltier than the ocean). The high salinity supports a mineral industry that extracts about 2 million tons of salt from the lake each year. The aquatic ecosystem consists of more than 30 species of organisms. Harvest of its best-known species, the brine shrimp, annually supplies millions of pounds of food for the aquaculture industry worldwide. The lake is used extensively by millions of migratory and nesting birds and is a place of solitude for people. All this occurs in a lake that is located at the bottom of a 35,000-square-mile drainage basin that has a human population of more than 1.5 million.

  12. Modelling wildfire activity in Iberia with different Atmospheric Circulation WTs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sousa, P. M.; Trigo, R.; Pereira, M. G.; Rasilla, D.; Gouveia, C.

    2012-04-01

    This work focuses on the spatial and temporal variability of burnt area (BA) for the entire Iberian Peninsula (IP) and on the construction of statistical models to reproduce the inter-annual variability, based on Weather Types Classification (WTC). A common BA dataset was assembled for the first time for the entire Iberian Peninsula, by merging BA records for the 66 administrative regions of Portugal and Spain. A normalization procedure was then applied to the various size regions before performing a k-means cluster analysis to identify large areas characterized by similar fire regimes. The most compelling results were obtained for 4 clusters (Northwestern, Northern, Southwestern and Eastern) whose spatial patterns and seasonal fire regimes are shown to be related with constraining factors such as topography, vegetation cover and climate conditions. The response of fire burnt surface at monthly time scales to both long-term climatic pre-conditions and short-term synoptic forcing was assessed through correlation and regression analysis using: (i) temperature and precipitation from 2 to 7 months in advance to fire peak season; (ii) synoptic weather patterns derived from 11 distinct classifications derived under the COSTaction-733. Different responses were obtained for each of the considered regions: (i) a relevant link between BA and short-term synoptic forcing (represented by monthly frequencies of WTC) was identified for all clusters; (ii) long-term climatic preconditioning was relevant for all but one cluster (Northern). Taking into account these links, we developed stepwise regression models with the aim of reproducing the observed BA series (i.e. in hindcast mode). These models were based on the best climatic and synoptic circulation predictors identified previously. All models were cross-validated and their performance varies between clusters, though models exclusively based on WTCs tend to better reproduce annual BA time series than those only based on pre

  13. Predicting the Vegetation Condition of the 2015/16 Drought across the Great Horn of Africa (GHA): Model Evaluation and Preliminary Result

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tadesse, T.; Bayissa, Y. A.; Demisse, G. B.; Wardlow, B.

    2017-12-01

    The National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC) funded by NASA has developed a new tool for predicting the general vegetation condition called: the "Vegetation outlook for the Greater Africa (VegOut-GHA)." In this study, the 2015/16 drought across the GHA that has been considered one of the worst in decades across the region was assessed and evaluated using the VegOut-GHA models and products. The VegOut-GHA maps (hindsight prediction maps) for the growing season (June - September) were generated to predict a standardized seasonal greenness (SSG) that is based on seasonally integrated normalized difference vegetation index (a measure that represents a general indicator of relative vegetation health within a growing season). The vegetation condition outlooks were made for 10-day, 1-month, 2-month, and 3-month in hindsight and compared to the observed values of the SSG. The VegOut-GHA model was evaluated and compared to crop yield and other satellite-derived data (e.g., standardized seasonal precipitation based on "Enhancing National Climate Services (ENACTS)" datasets for GHA). Thus, the VegOut-GHA model and its evaluation results will be discussed based on the 2015/2016 drought season in the region. This preliminary results suggest an opportunity to improve management of drought risk in agriculture and food security.

  14. Differences in the ability of vegetation models to predict small mammal abundance in different aged Douglas-fir forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cathy A. Taylor; C. John Ralph; Arlene T. Doyle

    1988-01-01

    Three trapping techniques for small mammals were used in 47 study stands in northern California and southern Oregon and resulted in different capture frequencies by the different techniques. In addition, the abundances of mammals derived from the different techniques produced vegetation association models which were often quite different. Only the California redbacked...

  15. Distinguishing Antimicrobial Models with Different Resistance Mechanisms via Population Pharmacodynamic Modeling.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthieu Jacobs

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Semi-mechanistic pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic (PK-PD modeling is increasingly used for antimicrobial drug development and optimization of dosage regimens, but systematic simulation-estimation studies to distinguish between competing PD models are lacking. This study compared the ability of static and dynamic in vitro infection models to distinguish between models with different resistance mechanisms and support accurate and precise parameter estimation. Monte Carlo simulations (MCS were performed for models with one susceptible bacterial population without (M1 or with a resting stage (M2, a one population model with adaptive resistance (M5, models with pre-existing susceptible and resistant populations without (M3 or with (M4 inter-conversion, and a model with two pre-existing populations with adaptive resistance (M6. For each model, 200 datasets of the total bacterial population were simulated over 24h using static antibiotic concentrations (256-fold concentration range or over 48h under dynamic conditions (dosing every 12h; elimination half-life: 1h. Twelve-hundred random datasets (each containing 20 curves for static or four curves for dynamic conditions were generated by bootstrapping. Each dataset was estimated by all six models via population PD modeling to compare bias and precision. For M1 and M3, most parameter estimates were unbiased (<10% and had good imprecision (<30%. However, parameters for adaptive resistance and inter-conversion for M2, M4, M5 and M6 had poor bias and large imprecision under static and dynamic conditions. For datasets that only contained viable counts of the total population, common statistical criteria and diagnostic plots did not support sound identification of the true resistance mechanism. Therefore, it seems advisable to quantify resistant bacteria and characterize their MICs and resistance mechanisms to support extended simulations and translate from in vitro experiments to animal infection models and

  16. Comparison of surrogate models with different methods in ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    and kriging methods were compared for building surrogate models of a multiphase flow simulation model in a simplified ... 2001;. Keywords. Surrogate modelling; simulation optimization; groundwater remediation; polynomial regression; radial basis .... silty clay with a thickness of 1–2 m, while the lower part is made up of ...

  17. Comparison of surrogate models with different methods in ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Surrogate modelling is an effective tool for reducing computational burden of simulation optimization. In this article, polynomial regression (PR), radial basis function artificial neural network (RBFANN), and kriging methods were compared for building surrogate models of a multiphase flow simulation model in a simplified ...

  18. 'Great Power Style' in China's Economic Policy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jiang, Yang

    2011-01-01

    China’s ascendance attracts concern, even though Beijing claims to be a responsible great power and tries to demonstrate its ‘great power style’ in economic diplomacy. This article therefore discusses the following questions: to what extent does the current notion and practice of Chinese ‘great...... power style’ in economic diplomacy comply with, or differ from, the criteria of benign hegemony; and what are the major constraining factors? Conceptually, China’s ‘great power style’ is rooted in ancient Chinese political philosophy and institution, but it highly resembles the Western notion of benign...... and economic interests....

  19. Great ape genetic diversity and population history

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Prado-Martinez, Javier; Sudmant, Peter H.; Kidd, Jeffrey M.

    2013-01-01

    Most great ape genetic variation remains uncharacterized; however, its study is critical for understanding population history, recombination, selection and susceptibility to disease. Here we sequence to high coverage a total of 79 wild- and captive-born individuals representing all six great ape...... all species. We discover and assign 1,982 loss-of-function variants throughout the human and great ape lineages, determining that the rate of gene loss has not been different in the human branch compared to other internal branches in the great ape phylogeny. This comprehensive catalogue of great ape...... genome diversity provides a framework for understanding evolution and a resource for more effective management of wild and captive great ape populations....

  20. Idiopathic great saphenous phlebosclerosis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmadreza Jodati

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Arterial sclerosis has been extensively described but reports on venous sclerosis are very sparse. Phlebosclerosis refers to the thickening and hardening of the venous wall. Despite its morphological similarities with arteriosclerosis and potential morbid consequences, phlebosclerosis has gained only little attention. We report a 72 year old male with paralysis and atrophy of the right leg due to childhood poliomyelitis who was referred for coronary artery bypass surgery. The great saphenous vein, harvested from the left leg, showed a hardened cord-like obliterated vein. Surprisingly, harvested veins from the atrophic limb were normal and successfully used for grafting.

  1. A watershed model of individual differences in fluid intelligence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kievit, Rogier A; Davis, Simon W; Griffiths, John; Correia, Marta M; Cam-Can; Henson, Richard N

    2016-10-01

    Fluid intelligence is a crucial cognitive ability that predicts key life outcomes across the lifespan. Strong empirical links exist between fluid intelligence and processing speed on the one hand, and white matter integrity and processing speed on the other. We propose a watershed model that integrates these three explanatory levels in a principled manner in a single statistical model, with processing speed and white matter figuring as intermediate endophenotypes. We fit this model in a large (N=555) adult lifespan cohort from the Cambridge Centre for Ageing and Neuroscience (Cam-CAN) using multiple measures of processing speed, white matter health and fluid intelligence. The model fit the data well, outperforming competing models and providing evidence for a many-to-one mapping between white matter integrity, processing speed and fluid intelligence. The model can be naturally extended to integrate other cognitive domains, endophenotypes and genotypes. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  2. Soil moisture simulations using two different modelling approaches

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Šípek, Václav; Tesař, Miroslav

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 64, 3-4 (2013), s. 99-103 ISSN 0006-5471 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR IAA300600901; GA ČR GA205/08/1174 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z20600510 Keywords : soil moisture modelling * SWIM model * box modelling approach Subject RIV: DA - Hydrology ; Limnology http://www.boku.ac.at/diebodenkultur/volltexte/sondernummern/band-64/heft-3-4/sipek.pdf

  3. Ethnic differences in the effects of media on body image: the effects of priming with ethnically different or similar models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bruns, Gina L; Carter, Michele M

    2015-04-01

    Media exposure has been positively correlated with body dissatisfaction. While body image concerns are common, being African American has been found to be a protective factor in the development of body dissatisfaction. Participants either viewed ten advertisements showing 1) ethnically-similar thin models; 2) ethnically-different thin models; 3) ethnically-similar plus-sized models; and 4) ethnically-diverse plus-sized models. Following exposure, body image was measured. African American women had less body dissatisfaction than Caucasian women. Ethnically-similar thin-model conditions did not elicit greater body dissatisfaction scores than ethnically-different thin or plus-sized models nor did the ethnicity of the model impact ratings of body dissatisfaction for women of either race. There were no differences among the African American women exposed to plus-sized versus thin models. Among Caucasian women exposure to plus-sized models resulted in greater body dissatisfaction than exposure to thin models. Results support existing literature that African American women experience less body dissatisfaction than Caucasian women even following exposure to an ethnically-similar thin model. Additionally, women exposed to plus-sized model conditions experienced greater body dissatisfaction than those shown thin models. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. On Markov Modulated Mean-Reverting Price-Difference Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. P. Malcom

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we develop a stochastic model incorporating a double-Markov modulated mean-reversion model. Unlike a price process the basis process X can take positive or negative values. This model is based on an explicit discretisation of the corresponding continuous time dynamics. The new feature in our model is that we suppose the mean reverting level in our dynamics as well as the noise coefficient can change according to the states of some finite-state Markov processes which could be the economy and some other unseen random phenomenon.

  5. Comparison of four different models of vortex generators

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fernandez, U.; Réthoré, Pierre-Elouan; Sørensen, Niels N.

    2012-01-01

    Actuator Vortex Generator Model (AcVG), is based on the lifting force theory of Bender, Anderson and Yagle, the BAY Model, which provides an efficient method for computational fluid dynamic (CFD) simulations of flow with VGs, and the forces are applied into the computational domain using the actuator shape...... in the center of the test section. The fourth model, used as a quantitative comparison, is the analytical model of the primary vortex based in the helical structure of longitudinal embedded vortex, which can reduce the complex flow to merely four parameters: circulation, convection velocity, vortex core radius...

  6. Lithium-ion battery aging mechanisms and life model under different charging stresses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Yang; Jiang, Jiuchun; Zhang, Caiping; Zhang, Weige; Ma, Zeyu; Jiang, Yan

    2017-07-01

    The charging time-consuming and lifespan of lithium-ion batteries have always been the bottleneck for the tremendous application of electric vehicles. In this paper, cycle life tests are conducted to reveal the influence of different charging current rates and cut-off voltages on the aging mechanism of batteries. The long-term effects of charging current rates and cut-off voltages on capacity degradation and resistance increase are compared. The results show that there exists a critical charging current and a critical charging cut-off voltage. When the charging stress exceeds the critical value, battery degradation speed will be greatly accelerated. Furthermore, battery aging mechanisms at various charging currents and cut-off voltages are investigated using incremental capacity analysis. It is indicated that charging current and cut-off voltage should be reduced to retard battery degradation when the battery degrades to a certain extent. The time when the loss of electrode material accelerates is taken as the crisis to reduce charging current and the time when the loss of lithium inventory accelerates is taken as the crisis to reduce charging cut-off voltage. Moreover, an experiential model quantitatively describing the relationship between capacity degradation rate and charging stresses at different aging states is established.

  7. Cognitive models of choice: comparing decision field theory to the proportional difference model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scheibehenne, Benjamin; Rieskamp, Jörg; González-Vallejo, Claudia

    2009-07-01

    People often face preferential decisions under risk. To further our understanding of the cognitive processes underlying these preferential choices, two prominent cognitive models, decision field theory (DFT; Busemeyer & Townsend, 1993) and the proportional difference model (PD; González-Vallejo, 2002), were rigorously tested against each other. In two consecutive experiments, the participants repeatedly had to choose between monetary gambles. The first experiment provided the reference to estimate the models' free parameters. From these estimations, new gamble pairs were generated for the second experiment such that the two models made maximally divergent predictions. In the first experiment, both models explained the data equally well. However, in the second generalization experiment, the participants' choices were much closer to the predictions of DFT. The results indicate that the stochastic process assumed by DFT, in which evidence in favor of or against each option accumulates over time, described people's choice behavior better than the trade-offs between proportional differences assumed by PD. Copyright © 2009 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

  8. Modelling growth of five different colour types of mink

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    p2492989

    first introduced in China at the beginning of the 20th century for fur farming. Interest in mink is excited by its economic .... of inflection and is mainly used to describe the postnatal growth of an individual. Table 1 Functions considered in this study for modelling the growth curve of the mink. Model. Equation. No of parameters.

  9. A model to predict productivity of different chipping operations ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Additional international case studies from North America, South America, and central and northern Europe were used to test the accuracy of the model, in which 15 studies confirmed the model's validity and two failed to pass the test. Keywords: average piece size, chipper, power, sensitivity analysis, type of operation, unit ...

  10. Modeling detour behavior of pedestrian dynamics under different conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qu, Yunchao; Xiao, Yao; Wu, Jianjun; Tang, Tao; Gao, Ziyou

    2018-02-01

    Pedestrian simulation approach has been widely used to reveal the human behavior and evaluate the performance of crowd evacuation. In the existing pedestrian simulation models, the social force model is capable of predicting many collective phenomena. Detour behavior occurs in many cases, and the important behavior is a dominate factor of the crowd evacuation efficiency. However, limited attention has been attracted for analyzing and modeling the characteristics of detour behavior. In this paper, a modified social force model integrated by Voronoi diagram is proposed to calculate the detour direction and preferred velocity. Besides, with the consideration of locations and velocities of neighbor pedestrians, a Logit-based choice model is built to describe the detour direction choice. The proposed model is applied to analyze pedestrian dynamics in a corridor scenario with either unidirectional or bidirectional flow, and a building scenario in real-world. Simulation results show that the modified social force model including detour behavior could reduce the frequency of collision and deadlock, increase the average speed of the crowd, and predict more practical crowd dynamics with detour behavior. This model can also be potentially applied to understand the pedestrian dynamics and design emergent management strategies for crowd evacuations.

  11. The Great Recession, unemployment and suicide.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Norström, Thor; Grönqvist, Hans

    2015-02-01

    How have suicide rates responded to the marked increase in unemployment spurred by the Great Recession? Our paper puts this issue into a wider perspective by assessing (1) whether the unemployment-suicide link is modified by the degree of unemployment protection, and (2) whether the effect on suicide of the present crisis differs from the effects of previous economic downturns. We analysed the unemployment-suicide link using time-series data for 30 countries spanning the period 1960-2012. Separate fixed-effects models were estimated for each of five welfare state regimes with different levels of unemployment protection (Eastern, Southern, Anglo-Saxon, Bismarckian and Scandinavian). We included an interaction term to capture the possible excess effect of unemployment during the Great Recession. The largest unemployment increases occurred in the welfare state regimes with the least generous unemployment protection. The unemployment effect on male suicides was statistically significant in all welfare regimes, except the Scandinavian one. The effect on female suicides was significant only in the eastern European country group. There was a significant gradient in the effects, being stronger the less generous the unemployment protection. The interaction term capturing the possible excess effect of unemployment during the financial crisis was not significant. Our findings suggest that the more generous the unemployment protection the weaker the detrimental impact on suicide of the increasing unemployment during the Great Recession. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  12. HEMS in Slovenia: one country, four models, different quality outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klemenc-Ketis, Zalika; Tomazin, Iztok; Kersnik, Janko

    2012-01-01

    The objective of this study was to determine the quality of patient care using quality indicators in 4 different Slovenian helicopter emergency medical service (HEMS) models. This was a cross-sectional study of all 4 HEMS in Slovenia. We collected data on quality for the period from July 2003 to August 2008, in a sample of all eligible patients that were managed by HEMS during the study period (N = 833). We obtained the following data on emergency operations: the time and organizational features of the operation; the description of the patients' condition; and the on-site diagnostic and treatment procedures. We used the following as quality indicators: the number of resuscitated patients that were intubated; the number of patients with a Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score of # 8 that were intubated; the number of patients with acute coronary syndrome that received treatment with morphine, oxygen, nitroglycerine, and aspirin (MONA); the number of patients with a National Advisory Committee on Aeronautics (NACA) scale score of $ 4 with an intravenous line; the number of patients with a NACA score of $ 5 that were given oxygen; and the number of patients with a NACA score of $ 4 that were given appropriate analgesic treatment. Across all HEMS bases, 36 (87.8%) resuscitated patients were intubated; 122 (81.9%) patients with GCS # 8 were intubated; 149 (89.2%) patients with ACS were given MONA treatment; 52 (92.9%) patients with a NACA score of $ 4 were given an intravenous line; 254 (92.7%) patients with a NACA score of $ 5 were given oxygen; and 18 (32.7%) trauma patients with a NACA score of $ 4 were given intravenous analgesics. The quality of patient management in HEMS in Slovenia is affected by the callout procedure, the presence or absence of a fixed rope, the type of helicopter operator, and the provider of the doctor in the helicopter team. The data from our study indicates that the quality of patient management in HEMS in Slovenia is high. It also seems that

  13. Model of the PCB and mercury exposure of mink and great blue heron inhabiting the off-site environment downstream from the US Department of Energy Oak Ridge Reservation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    MacIntosh, D.L. (Indiana Univ., Bloomington, IN (United States). School of Public and Environmental Affairs); Suter, G.W. II; Hoffman, F.O. (Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States))

    1992-09-01

    This report presents a pair of wildlife exposure models developed for use in investigating the risks to wildlife of releases of mercury and PCBS. The species modeled are the great blue heron and mink The models may be used to estimate the exposure experienced by mink and herons, to help establish remedial action goals and to identify research needs. Because mercury and PCBs bioaccumulate through dietary uptake, the models simulate the food webs supporting the two species. Sources of contaminants include surface water, sediment, sediment pore water, and soil. The model are stochastic equilibrium models. Two types of variance in the input parameters are distinguished: stochastic variance among individual mink and herons and ignorance concerning true parameter values. The variance in the output due to stochastic parameters indicates the expected variance among the receptors. The variance due to ignorance indicates the extent to which the model outputs could be unpaved by additional sampling and measurement. The results of the models were compared to concentrations measured in great blue heron eggs and nestlings from colonies on the Clinch and Tennessee Rivers. The predicted concentrations agreed well with the measured concentrations. In addition, the variances in measured values among individuals was approximately equal to the total stochastic variance predicted by the models.

  14. Model of the PCB and mercury exposure of mink and great blue heron inhabiting the off-site environment downstream from the US Department of Energy Oak Ridge Reservation. Environmental Restoration Program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    MacIntosh, D.L. [Indiana Univ., Bloomington, IN (United States). School of Public and Environmental Affairs; Suter, G.W. II; Hoffman, F.O. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States)

    1992-09-01

    This report presents a pair of wildlife exposure models developed for use in investigating the risks to wildlife of releases of mercury and PCBS. The species modeled are the great blue heron and mink The models may be used to estimate the exposure experienced by mink and herons, to help establish remedial action goals and to identify research needs. Because mercury and PCBs bioaccumulate through dietary uptake, the models simulate the food webs supporting the two species. Sources of contaminants include surface water, sediment, sediment pore water, and soil. The model are stochastic equilibrium models. Two types of variance in the input parameters are distinguished: stochastic variance among individual mink and herons and ignorance concerning true parameter values. The variance in the output due to stochastic parameters indicates the expected variance among the receptors. The variance due to ignorance indicates the extent to which the model outputs could be unpaved by additional sampling and measurement. The results of the models were compared to concentrations measured in great blue heron eggs and nestlings from colonies on the Clinch and Tennessee Rivers. The predicted concentrations agreed well with the measured concentrations. In addition, the variances in measured values among individuals was approximately equal to the total stochastic variance predicted by the models.

  15. Model of the PCB and mercury exposure of mink and great blue heron inhabiting the off-site environment downstream from the US Department of Energy Oak Ridge Reservation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    MacIntosh, D.L.

    1992-09-01

    This report presents a pair of wildlife exposure models developed for use in investigating the risks to wildlife of releases of mercury and PCBS. The species modeled are the great blue heron and mink The models may be used to estimate the exposure experienced by mink and herons, to help establish remedial action goals and to identify research needs. Because mercury and PCBs bioaccumulate through dietary uptake, the models simulate the food webs supporting the two species. Sources of contaminants include surface water, sediment, sediment pore water, and soil. The model are stochastic equilibrium models. Two types of variance in the input parameters are distinguished: stochastic variance among individual mink and herons and ignorance concerning true parameter values. The variance in the output due to stochastic parameters indicates the expected variance among the receptors. The variance due to ignorance indicates the extent to which the model outputs could be unpaved by additional sampling and measurement. The results of the models were compared to concentrations measured in great blue heron eggs and nestlings from colonies on the Clinch and Tennessee Rivers. The predicted concentrations agreed well with the measured concentrations. In addition, the variances in measured values among individuals was approximately equal to the total stochastic variance predicted by the models

  16. CLOSED FORM MODELING OF CROSSTALK FOR DISTRIBUTED RLCG ON-CHIP INTERCONNECTS USING DIFFERENCE MODEL APPROACH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rajib Kar

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available On chip interconnect plays a dominant role on the circuit performance in both analog and digital domains. Interconnects can no longer be treated as mere delays or lumped RC networks. Crosstalk, ringing and reflections are just some of the issues that need to be addressed for the efficient design of high speed VLSI circuits. In order to accurately model these high frequency effects, inductance had been taken into consideration. Within this frequency range, the most accurate simulation model for on-chip VLSI interconnects was the distributed RLC model. Unfortunately, this model has many limitations at much higher of operating frequency used in today’s VLSI design. This can lead to inaccurate simulations if not modeled properly. At even higher frequency the conductance metrics has become a dominant factor and has to be taken into consideration for accurate modeling of the different on-chip performance parameters. The traditional analysis of crosstalk in a transmission line begins with a lossless LC representation, yielding a wave equation governing the system response. With the increase in frequency and interconnection length due to the increase in the number of on-chip devices, the lossy components are prevailing than the lossless components. With the reduction of pitch between the adjacent wires in deep sub-micron technologies, coupling capacitances are becoming significant. This increase in capacitances results the introduction of noise which is capable of propagating a logical fault. An inaccurate estimation of the crosstalk could be the origin of the malfunction of the circuit. Cross talk can be analyzed by computing the signal linkage between aggressor and victim nets. The aggressor net carries a signal that couples to the victim net through the parasitic capacitances [13]. To determine the effects that this cross talk will have on circuit operation, the resulting delays and logic levels for the victim nets must be computed. This paper

  17. Great Britain at CERN

    CERN Multimedia

    2006-01-01

    From 14 to 16 November 2006 Administration Building, Bldg. 60/61 - ground and 1st floor 09.30 - 17.30 Fifteen companies will present their latest technologies at the 'Great Britain at CERN' exhibition. British industry will exhibit products and technologies related to the field of particle physics. The main fields represented will be computing technologies, electrical engineering, electronics, mechanical engineering, vacuum & low temperature technologies and particle detectors. The exhibition is organised by BEAMA Exhibitions (the British Electrotechnical and Allied Manufacturers Association). Below you will find: a list of the exhibitors. A detailed programme will be available in due course: from your Departmental secretariat, from the Reception information desk, Building 33, at the exhibition itself. A detailed list of the companies is available at the following FI link: http://fi-dep.web.cern.ch/fi-dep/structure/memberstates/exhibitions_visits.htm LIST OF EXHIBITORS 3D Metrics Alma...

  18. Great Britain at CERN

    CERN Multimedia

    2006-01-01

    From 14 to 16 November 2006 Administration Building, Bldg. 60/61 - ground and 1st floor 09.30 - 17.30 Fifteen companies will present their latest technologies at the 'Great Britain at CERN' exhibition. British industry will exhibit products and technologies related to the field of particle physics. The main fields represented will be computing technologies, electrical engineering, electronics, mechanical engineering, vacuum & low temperature technologies and particle detectors. The exhibition is organised by BEAMA Exhibitions (the British Electrotechnical and Allied Manufacturers Association). Below you will find: a list of the exhibitors. A detailed programme will be available in due course: from your Departmental secretariat, from the Reception information desk, Building 33, at the exhibition itself. A detailed list of the companies is available at the following FI link: http://fi-dep.web.cern.ch/fi-dep/structure/memberstates/exhibitions_visits.htm LIST OF EXHIBITORS 3D Metrics Almat...

  19. Comparative study of stability in different TCP/RED models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nga, J.H.C.; Iu, H.H.C.; Ling, S.H.; Lam, H.K.

    2008-01-01

    This paper studies the stability issue of the average queue length of a Transmission Control Protocol (TCP) model when interacting with Random Early Detection (RED). The model used for the study has shown period doubling bifurcation (PDB) and border collision bifurcation (BCB) in the average queue size at certain values of parameters when original RED is deployed. In this paper, we adopt a gentle version of RED and a newly derived RED algorithm into the model to study the improvement in stability of average queue size of the system

  20. Modeling elk and bison carrying capacity for Great Sand Dunes National Park, Baca National Wildlife Refuge, and The Nature Conservancy's Medano Ranch, Colorado

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wockner, Gary; Boone, Randall; Schoenecker, Kathryn A.; Zeigenfuss, Linda C.

    2015-01-01

    Great Sand Dunes National Park and Preserve and the neighboring Baca National Wildlife Refuge constitute an extraordinary setting that offers a variety of opportunities for outdoor recreation and natural resource preservation in the San Luis Valley of Colorado. Adjacent to these federal lands, the Nature Conservancy (TNC) manages the historic Medano Ranch. The total land area of these three conservation properties is roughly 121,500 hectares (ha). It is a remote and rugged area in which resource managers must balance the protection of natural resources with recreation and neighboring land uses. The management of wild ungulates in this setting presents challenges, as wild ungulates move freely across public and private landscapes.

  1. Modeling large offshore wind farms under different atmospheric stability regimes with the Park wake model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Peña, Alfredo; Réthoré, Pierre-Elouan; Rathmann, Ole

    2013-01-01

    Here, we evaluate a modified version of the Park wake model against power data from a west-east row in the middle of the Horns Rev I offshore wind farm. The evaluation is performed on data classified in four different atmospheric stability conditions, for a narrow wind speed range, and a wide range...... turbines and those using the WAsP recommended value closer to the data for the first turbines. It is generally seen that under stable and unstable atmospheric conditions the power deficits are the highest and lowest, respectively, but the wind conditions under both stability regimes are different...

  2. A spatial individual-based model predicting a great impact of copious sugar sources and resting sites on survival of Anopheles gambiae and malaria parasite transmission

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Lin; Qualls, Whitney A.; Marshall, John M; Arheart, Kris L.; DeAngelis, Don; McManus, John W.; Traore, Sekou F.; Doumbia, Seydou; Schlein, Yosef; Muller, Gunter C.; Beier, John C.

    2015-01-01

    BackgroundAgent-based modelling (ABM) has been used to simulate mosquito life cycles and to evaluate vector control applications. However, most models lack sugar-feeding and resting behaviours or are based on mathematical equations lacking individual level randomness and spatial components of mosquito life. Here, a spatial individual-based model (IBM) incorporating sugar-feeding and resting behaviours of the malaria vector Anopheles gambiae was developed to estimate the impact of environmental sugar sources and resting sites on survival and biting behaviour.MethodsA spatial IBM containing An. gambiae mosquitoes and humans, as well as the village environment of houses, sugar sources, resting sites and larval habitat sites was developed. Anopheles gambiae behaviour rules were attributed at each step of the IBM: resting, host seeking, sugar feeding and breeding. Each step represented one second of time, and each simulation was set to run for 60 days and repeated 50 times. Scenarios of different densities and spatial distributions of sugar sources and outdoor resting sites were simulated and compared.ResultsWhen the number of natural sugar sources was increased from 0 to 100 while the number of resting sites was held constant, mean daily survival rate increased from 2.5% to 85.1% for males and from 2.5% to 94.5% for females, mean human biting rate increased from 0 to 0.94 bites per human per day, and mean daily abundance increased from 1 to 477 for males and from 1 to 1,428 for females. When the number of outdoor resting sites was increased from 0 to 50 while the number of sugar sources was held constant, mean daily survival rate increased from 77.3% to 84.3% for males and from 86.7% to 93.9% for females, mean human biting rate increased from 0 to 0.52 bites per human per day, and mean daily abundance increased from 62 to 349 for males and from 257 to 1120 for females. All increases were significant (P malaria parasite transmission.

  3. MODELING OF THE BEHAVIOUR REOLOGICHESKIH TEL UNDER DIFFERENT LAW NAGRUZHENIYA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. V. Bendyukov

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The Offered model of the behaviour reologicheskogo bodies (the viscous-elasticity of the materia, designs or systems under controlling influence of the load, acting on given law for some time.

  4. Randall-Sundrum models vs. supersymmetry. The different flavor signatures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gori, Stefania

    2010-07-15

    The Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model based on flavor symmetries and models with a warped extra dimension as first proposed by Randall and Sundrum represent two of the best founded theories beyond the Standard Model. They provide two appealing solutions both to the gauge hierarchy problem and to the Standard Model flavor hierarchy problems. In this thesis we focus on a particular Randall-Sundrum model based on the custodial symmetry SU(2){sub L} x SU(2){sub R} x P{sub LR} in the bulk and on two Supersymmetric flavor models: the one based on a U(1) abelian flavor symmetry, the other on a SU(3) non abelian flavor symmetry. We first analyze and compare the flavor structure of the two frameworks, showing two possible ways to address the New Physics flavor problem: warped geometry and custodial protection vs. flavor symmetry. Subsequently, we study the impact of the new particles (Kaluza-Klein states in the Randall-Sundrum model and superpartners in Supersymmetry) in the K and B meson mixings and rare decays. We perform a global numerical analysis of the new physics effects in the models in question and we show that it is possible to naturally be in agreement with all the available data on {delta}F=2 observables, even fixing the energy scale of the models to the TeV range, in order to have new particles in the reach of the LHC. We then study distinctive patterns of flavor violation which can enable future experiments to distinguish the two frameworks. In particular, the specific correlations between the CP violating asymmetry in the B{sub s}{sup 0}- anti B{sub s}{sup 0} system, the rare decays B{sub s,d}{yields}{mu}{sup +}{mu}{sup -} and K{yields}{pi}{nu}anti {nu} allow in principle for an experimental test of the Randall-Sundrum model and of the two Supersymmetric flavor models and a clear distinction between the two frameworks, once new data will be available. (orig.)

  5. Effects of Different Rub Models on Simulated Rotor Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    1984-02-01

    bearings that were mounted in a squeeze - film damper common are blade tip and seal rubs, which are caused by with centering springs. Two of the...disks mounted on .0 .0 two axially stiff bearings (fig. 3). In this rotor- bearing model the bearings were mounted in squeeze - film damper where r(x,h,t...smearing and the abrading rub models into the analysis squeeze - film bearing . Assuming the ratio of blade width used in reference 5 and to compare

  6. Electron flux models for different energies at geostationary orbit

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boynton, R. J.; Balikhin, M. A.; Sibeck, D. G.; Walker, S. N.; Billings, S. A.; Ganushkina, N.

    2016-10-01

    Forecast models were derived for energetic electrons at all energy ranges sampled by the third-generation Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES). These models were based on Multi-Input Single-Output Nonlinear Autoregressive Moving Average with Exogenous inputs methodologies. The model inputs include the solar wind velocity, density and pressure, the fraction of time that the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) was southward, the IMF contribution of a solar wind-magnetosphere coupling function proposed by Boynton et al. (2011b), and the Dst index. As such, this study has deduced five new 1 h resolution models for the low-energy electrons measured by GOES (30-50 keV, 50-100 keV, 100-200 keV, 200-350 keV, and 350-600 keV) and extended the existing >800 keV and >2 MeV Geostationary Earth Orbit electron fluxes models to forecast at a 1 h resolution. All of these models were shown to provide accurate forecasts, with prediction efficiencies ranging between 66.9% and 82.3%.

  7. Persistency of lactation using random regression models and different fixed regression modeling approaches

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jaime Araujo Cobuci

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Milk yield test-day records on the first three lactations of 25,500 Holstein cows were used to estimate genetic parameters and predict breeding values for nine measures of persistency and 305-d milk yield in a random regression animal model using two criteria to define the fixed regression. Legendre polynomials of fourth and fifth orders were used to model the fixed and random regressions of lactation curves. The fixed regressions were adjusted for average milk yield on populations (single or subpopulations (multiple formed by cows that calved at the same age and in the same season. Akaike Information (AIC and Bayesian Information (BIC criteria indicated that models with multiple regression lactation curves had the best fit to test-day milk records of first lactations, while models with a single regression curve had the best fit for the second and third lactations. Heritability and genetic correlation estimates between persistency and milk yield differed significantly depending on the lactation order and the measures of persistency used. These parameters did not differ significantly depending on the criteria used for defining the fixed regressions for lactation curves. In general, the heritability estimates were higher for first (0.07 to 0.43, followed by the second (0.08 to 0.21 and third (0.04 to 0.10 lactation. The rank of sires resulting from the processes of genetic evaluation for milk yield or persistency using random regression models differed according to the criteria used for determining the fixed regression of lactation curve.

  8. Automatic Promotion and Student Dropout: Evidence from Uganda, Using Propensity Score in Difference in Differences Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okurut, Jeje Moses

    2018-01-01

    The impact of automatic promotion practice on students dropping out of Uganda's primary education was assessed using propensity score in difference in differences analysis technique. The analysis strategy was instrumental in addressing the selection bias problem, as well as biases arising from common trends over time, and permanent latent…

  9. Celebrating difference: a co - ordinate model of schooling

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    QuickSilver

    There are female and male brains that don't do this. This is a general noted tendency. Why the brains are different is explained by human and natu- ral history and the production of hormones in utero and at pu- berty. We are going to focus on the puberty years, where differences are very noticeable. IMPLICATIONS. There is ...

  10. Combating Combination of Hypertension and Diabetes in Different Rat Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Talma Rosenthal

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Rat experimental models are used extensively for studying physiological mechanisms and treatments of hypertension and diabetes co-existence. Each one of these conditions is a major risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD, and the combination of the two conditions is a potent enhancer of CVD. Five major animal models that advanced our understanding of the mechanisms and therapeutic approaches in humans are discussed in this review: Zucker, Goto-Kakizaki, SHROB, SHR/NDmcr-cp and Cohen Rosenthal diabetic hypertensive (CRDH rats. The use of various drugs, such as angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE inhibitors (ACEIs, various angiotensin receptor blockers (ARBs, and calcium channel blockers (CCBs, to combat the effects of concomitant pathologies on the combination of diabetes and hypertension, as well as the non-pharmacological approach are reviewed in detail for each rat model. Results from experiments on these models indicate that classical factors contributing to the pathology of hypertension and diabetes combination—Including hypertension, hyperglycemia, hyperinsulinemia and hyperlipidemia—can now be treated, although these treatments do not completely prevent renal complications. Animal studies have focused on several mechanisms involved in hypertension/diabetes that remain to be translated into clinical medicine, including hypoxia, oxidative stress, and advanced glycation. Several target molecules have been identified that need to be incorporated into a treatment modality. The challenge continues to be the identification and interpretation of the clinical evidence from the animal models and their application to human treatment.

  11. A mathematical model for PEMFC in different flow modes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ge, Shan-Hai; Yi, Bao-Lian

    A two-dimensional, steady state model for proton exchange membrane fuel cell (PEMFC) is presented. The model is used to describe the effect of flow mode (coflow and counterflow), operation conditions and membrane thickness on the water transport, ohmic resistance and water distribution in the membrane, current density distribution along the channel and performance of PEMFC. Effect of liquid water on the transport in the two-phase region of cathode diffusion layer was considered. Water transport in the membrane by electro-osmosis drag, diffusion and convection were combined in this model. The model predicts that the dry reactant gases can be well internally humidified and maintain high performance when PEMFC is operated in the counterflow mode without external humidification. Counterflow mode does not show any advantageous while the reactant gases are high humidified or saturated. Compared to the coflow mode, counterflow mode improves the current density distribution with dry or low humidity gases. The higher the anode is humidified, the more water will migrate from anode to cathode. The modeling results compare very well with experimental results.

  12. Sensitivity, Error and Uncertainty Quantification: Interfacing Models at Different Scales

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krstic, Predrag S.

    2014-01-01

    Discussion on accuracy of AMO data to be used in the plasma modeling codes for astrophysics and nuclear fusion applications, including plasma-material interfaces (PMI), involves many orders of magnitude of energy, spatial and temporal scales. Thus, energies run from tens of K to hundreds of millions of K, temporal and spatial scales go from fs to years and from nm’s to m’s and more, respectively. The key challenge for the theory and simulation in this field is the consistent integration of all processes and scales, i.e. an “integrated AMO science” (IAMO). The principal goal of the IAMO science is to enable accurate studies of interactions of electrons, atoms, molecules, photons, in many-body environment, including complex collision physics of plasma-material interfaces, leading to the best decisions and predictions. However, the accuracy requirement for a particular data strongly depends on the sensitivity of the respective plasma modeling applications to these data, which stresses a need for immediate sensitivity analysis feedback of the plasma modeling and material design communities. Thus, the data provision to the plasma modeling community is a “two-way road” as long as the accuracy of the data is considered, requiring close interactions of the AMO and plasma modeling communities.

  13. Comparison of different models for non-invasive FFR estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mirramezani, Mehran; Shadden, Shawn

    2017-11-01

    Coronary artery disease is a leading cause of death worldwide. Fractional flow reserve (FFR), derived from invasively measuring the pressure drop across a stenosis, is considered the gold standard to diagnose disease severity and need for treatment. Non-invasive estimation of FFR has gained recent attention for its potential to reduce patient risk and procedural cost versus invasive FFR measurement. Non-invasive FFR can be obtained by using image-based computational fluid dynamics to simulate blood flow and pressure in a patient-specific coronary model. However, 3D simulations require extensive effort for model construction and numerical computation, which limits their routine use. In this study we compare (ordered by increasing computational cost/complexity): reduced-order algebraic models of pressure drop across a stenosis; 1D, 2D (multiring) and 3D CFD models; as well as 3D FSI for the computation of FFR in idealized and patient-specific stenosis geometries. We demonstrate the ability of an appropriate reduced order algebraic model to closely predict FFR when compared to FFR from a full 3D simulation. This work was supported by the NIH, Grant No. R01-HL103419.

  14. Comparison of Different Height–Diameter Modelling Techniques for Prediction of Site Productivity in Natural Uneven-Aged Pure Stands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guangshuang Duan

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Reliable estimates of forest site productivity are a central element of forest management. The model of height-diameter relationship of dominant trees using algebraic difference approach (ADA is a commonly used method to measure site productivity of natural uneven-aged stands. However, the existing models of this method do not recognize site type or sample plot specific variability in height curves; thus, it cannot be effectively used to estimate site type or sample plot-related site productivity for natural uneven-aged stands. Two primary subject-specific approaches, ADA with dummy variable (DV (ADA + DV and ADA with combination of dummy variable and nonlinear mixed-effects modelling (CM (ADA + CM, were proposed for height–diameter modelling. Height–diameter models developed with ADA, ADA + DV and ADA + CM were compared using data from 4161 observations on 349 permanent sample plots of four major natural uneven-aged pure stands (Spruce, Korean Larch, Mongolian Oak, and White Birch in northeastern China. It was found that models developed with ADA + CM provided the best performance, followed by the models with ADA + DV, and the models developed with ADA performed the worst. Random effects at the plot level were substantial, and their inclusion greatly improved the model’s accuracy. More importantly, the models developed with ADA + CM provide an effective method for quantifying site type- and sample plot-specific forest site productivity for uneven-aged pure stands.

  15. Development of a distributed biosphere hydrological model and its evaluation with the Southern Great Plains Experiments (SGP97 and SGP99)

    Science.gov (United States)

    A distributed biosphere hydrological model, the so called water and energy budget-based distributed hydrological model (WEB-DHM), has been developed by fully coupling a biosphere scheme (SiB2) with a geomorphology-based hydrological model (GBHM). SiB2 describes the transfer of turbulent fluxes (ener...

  16. A parametric study of the thermal performance of green roofs in different climates through energy modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mukherjee, Sananda

    In recent years, there has been great interest in the potential of green roofs as an alternative roofing option to reduce the energy consumed by individual buildings as well as mitigate large scale urban environmental problems such as the heat island effect. There is a widespread recognition and a growing literature of measured data that suggest green roofs can reduce building energy consumption. This thesis investigates the potential of green roofs in reducing the building energy loads and focuses on how the different parameters of a green roof assembly affect the thermal performance of a building. A green roof assembly is modeled in Design Builder- a 3D graphical design modeling and energy use simulation program (interface) that uses the EnergyPlus simulation engine, and the simulated data set thus obtained is compared to field experiment data to validate the roof assembly model on the basis of how accurately it simulates the behavior of a green roof. Then the software is used to evaluate the thermal performance of several green roof assemblies under three different climate types, looking at the whole building energy consumption. For the purpose of this parametric simulation study, a prototypical single story small office building is considered and one parameter of the green roof is altered for each simulation run in order to understand its effect on building's energy loads. These parameters include different insulation thicknesses, leaf area indices (LAI) and growing medium or soil depth, each of which are tested under the three different climate types. The energy use intensities (EUIs), the peak and annual heating and cooling loads resulting from the use of these green roof assemblies are compared with each other and to a cool roof base case to determine the energy load reductions, if any. The heat flux through the roof is also evaluated and compared. The simulation results are then organized and finally presented as a decision support tool that would

  17. Modeling of the solubility of Naproxen and Trimethoprim in different solvents at different temperature

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Moudjari Y.

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available The study concerns the prediction of the solubility of pharmaceutical compounds such as Trimethoprim and Naproxen in various solvents like Methanol, Ethanol, 1-Propanol, 2-Propanol, 1-Butanol and 2-Butanol for the first solute and Chloroform, Octanol and Cyclohexane, for the second one. The solubility prediction was performed using thermodynamic models like the UNIFAC, which is a group contribution method, and the semi-predictive model like NRTL. The required interaction parameters for the NRTL are not available and are calculated by optimizing an objective function involving experimental data reported in the literature for the considered systems. Also the obtained results by means of the UNIFAC model for Naproxen showed deviations from the experimental data and therefore new molecular decompositions to generate new groups are proposed and the corresponding interaction parameters are calculated. The influence of the molecular structure on the behavior of the mixture is also discussed. On the other hand a new group representing the Aromatic Nitrogen (AN present in Trimethoprim is introduced and new interaction parameters concerning these groups are calculated. Finally it may be concluded that the NRTL model led to the best results for the solubility prediction for pharmaceutical compounds.

  18. How to study sex differences in addiction using animal models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carroll, Marilyn E; Lynch, Wendy J

    2016-09-01

    The importance of studying sex as a biological variable in biomedical research is becoming increasingly apparent. There is a particular need in preclinical studies of addiction to include both sexes, as female animals are often excluded from studies, leaving large gaps in our knowledge of not only sex differences and potential prevention and treatment strategies but also with regard to the basic neurobiology of addiction. This review focuses on methodology that has been developed in preclinical studies to examine sex differences in the behavioral aspects and neurobiological mechanisms related to addiction across the full range of the addiction process, including initiation (acquisition), maintenance, escalation, withdrawal, relapse to drug seeking and treatment. This review also discusses strategic and technical issues that need to be considered when comparing females and males, including the role of ovarian hormones and how sex differences interact with other major vulnerability factors in addiction, such as impulsivity, compulsivity and age (adolescent versus adult). Novel treatments for addiction are also discussed, such as competing non-drug rewards, repurposed medications such as progesterone and treatment combinations. Practical aspects of conducting research comparing female and male animals are also considered. Making sex differences a point of examination requires additional effort and consideration; however, such studies are necessary given mounting evidence demonstrating that the addiction process occurs differently in males and females. These studies should lead to a better understanding of individual differences in the development of addiction and effective treatments for males and females. © 2016 Society for the Study of Addiction.

  19. Performance Analysis of Different NeQuick Ionospheric Model Parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    WANG Ningbo

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Galileo adopts NeQuick model for single-frequency ionospheric delay corrections. For the standard operation of Galileo, NeQuick model is driven by the effective ionization level parameter Az instead of the solar activity level index, and the three broadcast ionospheric coefficients are determined by a second-polynomial through fitting the Az values estimated from globally distributed Galileo Sensor Stations (GSS. In this study, the processing strategies for the estimation of NeQuick ionospheric coefficients are discussed and the characteristics of the NeQuick coefficients are also analyzed. The accuracy of Global Position System (GPS broadcast Klobuchar, original NeQuick2 and fitted NeQuickC as well as Galileo broadcast NeQuickG models is evaluated over the continental and oceanic regions, respectively, in comparison with the ionospheric total electron content (TEC provided by global ionospheric maps (GIM, GPS test stations and JASON-2 altimeter. The results show that NeQuickG can mitigate ionospheric delay by 54.2%~65.8% on a global scale, and NeQuickC can correct for 71.1%~74.2% of the ionospheric delay. NeQuick2 performs at the same level with NeQuickG, which is a bit better than that of GPS broadcast Klobuchar model.

  20. Skills of different mesoscale models over Indian region during ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Performance of four mesoscale models namely, the MM5, ETA, RSM and WRF, run at NCMRWF for short range weather forecasting has been examined during monsoon-2006. Evaluation is carried out based upon comparisons between observations and day-1 and day-3 forecasts of wind, temper- ature, specific humidity ...

  1. Application of different models to the lactation curve of unimproved ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    m. merih

    Inverse Polynomial, Quadratic and Cubic models) for describing the lactation curve of unimproved Awassi ewes. Data were collected from 136 ewes from the same flock raised on the State Farm of Gözlü in the .... The parameters obtained were used to calculate the predicted yields in the original equations above. Residuals ...

  2. A Social Development Model of Serious Delinquency: Examining Gender Differences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laundra, Kenneth H.; Kiger, Gary; Bahr, Stephen J.

    2002-01-01

    This study offers a critical review and analysis of the Social Development Model and social control theory in delinquency. Results show that attachment and commitment to parents, school, and peers is associated with delinquency for both boys and girls. Parental attachment and commitment play a stronger role in female delinquency, while alienation…

  3. Genetic Evaluation and Ranking of Different Animal Models Using ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    An animal model utilizes all relationships available in a given data set. Estimates for variance components for additive direct, additive maternal, maternal environmental and direct environmental effects, and their covariances between direct and maternal genetic effects for post weaning growth traits have been obtained with ...

  4. On distinguishing different models of a class of emergent Universe ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Souvik Ghose

    2018-02-20

    Feb 20, 2018 ... in early Universe in the standard Big-Bang cosmol- ogy as the present observations favour such an initial phase. The Big-Bang cosmology, despite its success, has always been a concern for many who remained scepti- cal about its initial singularity. Emergent Universe (EU) models were studied as early ...

  5. Stabilization of Model Crude Oil Emulsion using Different ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    As part of an ongoing research into the stability of oil-field emulsions, model oil samples have been utilized to probe the effects of asphaltene interactions on crude oil/water emulsion stability. Asphaltenes were precipitated from treated Ondo State oil sand bitumen with n-hexane in a 40:1 solvent to bitumen ratio which was ...

  6. Finite-difference modelling of anisotropic wave scattering in discrete ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    2

    cells containing equivalent anisotropic medium by the use of the linear slip equivalent model. Our. 16 results show ...... frequency regression predicted by equation (21) can be distorted by the effects of multiple scattering. 337 ..... other seismic attributes, at least for the relatively simple geometries of subsurface structure. 449.

  7. Why Modelling on Different Scales is Necessary to Understand the Balance of Mercury in the Atmosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pirrone, N.; Hedgecock, I. M.; Jung, G.

    2007-05-01

    Two apparently conflicting facts concerning atmospheric mercury have prompted debate and an intensification of research activity over the last five years. The first is that global background atmospheric mercury concentrations are extremely uniform, with a slightly lower in the southern hemisphere compared to the northern hemisphere. This indicates that the atmospheric residence time pf mercury is long enough for it to be transported from its main emission source areas. The second is the by now well established presence of oxidised mercury compounds in the marine BL, far from anthropogenic sources. Oxidised mercury compounds make up a fairly small component of anthropogenic emissions, but are much more readily scavenged or deposited than elemental mercury and therefore not expected to be transported over any great distance. The presence of these compounds in the MBL therefore suggests that in-situ production occurs, which would also infer in-situ deposition thereby reducing the local concentration of mercury. However, as stated previously background concentrations are hemisperically extremely uniform. In order to investigate the atmospheric transport and transformation of mercury, modelling studies at different scales are required. Complex photochemical box models are used to study chemical processes in detail. Regional transport models with less complex chemistry but including anthropogenic and natural emission sources and a parameterised description of deposition processes are used to study source receptor relationships and estimate Hg exchange budgets between the atmosphere and terrestrial and marine receptors. Global transport models (with simplified chemistry) are used to investigate long-distance (intercontinental) transport pathways and the uniformity of hemispherical background concentrations. Results from the photochemical box model studies indicate that the atmospheric lifetime of mercury due to reactions with Br and OH may be shorter than previously

  8. Finite Difference Time Domain Modeling at USA Instruments, Inc.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Curtis, Richard

    2003-10-01

    Due to the competitive nature of the commercial MRI industry, it is essential for the financial health of a participating company to innovate new coil designs and bring product to market rapidly in response to ever-changing market conditions. However, the technology of MRI coil design is still early in its stage of development and its principles are yet evolving. As a result, it is not always possible to know the relevant electromagnetic effects of a given design since the interaction of coil elements is complex and often counter-intuitive. Even if the effects are known qualitatively, the quantitative results are difficult to obtain. At USA Instruments, Inc., the acquisition of the XFDTDâ electromagnetic simulation tool from REMCOM, Inc., has been helpful in determining the electromagnetic performance characteristics of existing coil designs in the prototype stage before the coils are released for production. In the ideal case, a coil design would be modeled earlier at the conceptual stage, so that only good designs will make it to the prototyping stage and the electromagnetic characteristics better understood very early in the design process and before the testing stage has begun. This paper is a brief overview of using FDTD modeling for MRI coil design at USA Instruments, Inc., and shows some of the highlights of recent FDTD modeling efforts on Birdcage coils, a staple of the MRI coil design portfolio.

  9. Empirical radio propagation model for DTV applied to non-homogeneous paths and different climates using machine learning techniques.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gomes, Igor Ruiz; Gomes, Cristiane Ruiz; Gomes, Herminio Simões; Cavalcante, Gervásio Protásio Dos Santos

    2018-01-01

    The establishment and improvement of transmission systems rely on models that take into account, (among other factors), the geographical features of the region, as these can lead to signal degradation. This is particularly important in Brazil, where there is a great diversity of scenery and climates. This article proposes an outdoor empirical radio propagation model for Ultra High Frequency (UHF) band, that estimates received power values that can be applied to non-homogeneous paths and different climates, this last being of an innovative character for the UHF band. Different artificial intelligence techniques were chosen on a theoretical and computational basis and made it possible to introduce, organize and describe quantitative and qualitative data quickly and efficiently, and thus determine the received power in a wide range of settings and climates. The proposed model was applied to a city in the Amazon region with heterogeneous paths, wooded urban areas and fractions of freshwater among other factors. Measurement campaigns were conducted to obtain data signals from two digital TV stations in the metropolitan area of the city of Belém, in the State of Pará, to design, compare and validate the model. The results are consistent since the model shows a clear difference between the two seasons of the studied year and small RMS errors in all the cases studied.

  10. Efficiency Of Different Teaching Models In Teaching Of Frisbee Ultimate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Žuffová Zuzana

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the study was to verify the efficiency of two frisbee ultimate teaching models at 8-year grammar schools relative to age. In the experimental group was used a game based model (Teaching Games for Understanding and in the control group the traditional model based on teaching techniques. 6 groups of female students took part in experiment: experimental group 1 (n=10, age=11.6, experimental group 2 (n=12, age=13.8, experimental group 3 (n=14, age =15.8, control group 1 (n=11, age =11.7, control group 2 (n=10, age =13.8 and control group 3 (n=9, age =15.8. Efficiency of the teaching models was evaluated based of game performance and special knowledge results. Game performance was evaluated by the method of game performance assessment based on GPAI (Game Performance Assessment Instrument through video record. To verify level of knowledge, we used a knowledge test, which consisted of questions related to the rules and tactics knowledge of frisbee ultimate. To perform statistical evaluation Mann-Whitney U-test was used. Game performance assessment and knowledge level indicated higher efficiency of TGfU in general, but mostly statistically insignificant. Experimental groups 1 and 2 were significantly better in the indicator that evaluates tactical aspect of game performance - decision making (p<0.05. Experimental group 3 was better in the indicator that evaluates skill execution - disc catching. The results showed that the students of the classes taught by game based model reached partially better game performance in general. Experimental groups achieved from 79.17 % to 80 % of correct answers relating to the rules and from 75 % to 87.5 % of correct answers relating to the tactical knowledge in the knowledge test. Control groups achieved from 57.69 % to 72.22 % of correct answers relating to the rules and from 51.92 % to 72.22 % of correct answers relating to the tactical knowledge in the knowledge test.

  11. Modelling gender differences in Egyptian adolescents' perception of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This study investigated gender differences in Egyptian adolescents' perception of parental involvement practices when controlling for the effect of adolescents' prior academic achievement and level of educational aspiration. Subjects of this study included 187 first-year students enrolled in four high schools in El-Minia city in ...

  12. Different radiation impedance models for finite porous materials

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nolan, Melanie; Jeong, Cheol-Ho; Brunskog, Jonas

    2015-01-01

    The Sabine absorption coefficients of finite absorbers are measured in a reverberation chamber according to the international standard ISO 354. They vary with the specimen size essentially due to diffraction at the specimen edges, which can be seen as the radiation impedance differing from the in...

  13. Modelling fuel demand for different socio-economic groups

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wadud, Zia; Graham, Daniel J.; Noland, Robert B.

    2009-01-01

    The fuel demand literature provides a range of estimates of the long and short-run price and income elasticities of gasoline demand for different countries and states. These estimates can be very useful in predicting the overall impacts of policy approaches designed to reduce fuel consumption and to address concerns of carbon emissions or energy security. However, analysis of policy options based on elasticities that are homogenous across income groups provides no information about the relative distributional burden that may be faced by different sectors of the population. Different responses to the same change in price or income are likely to occur, dependent on both travel needs and income levels. This paper estimates gasoline demand elasticities for different income quintiles in the United States to test for heterogeneity in demand response. Group wise summary consumer expenditure data for 20 years is used to derive the elasticity estimates. The results show that the elasticities do vary across groups and follow a U-pattern from the lowest to the highest income quintile. The lowest income quintile is found to have the largest price elasticity. The lowest and the highest income quintiles appear to be statistically insensitive to any changes in income. The rebound effect also follows the U-pattern, with the highest rebound observed among the wealthiest households. Rural households appear to have lower price elasticity than households in urban areas. (author)

  14. Review: The Great Gatsby

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonia de Jesus Sales

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available A presente resenha busca discutir a tradução de The Great Gatsby para o contexto brasileiro. Diversas traduções foram feitas, em diversas épocas e com repercussão positiva no contexto brasileiro. Para o presente estudo, foi observada a tradução de Vanessa Bárbara, de 2011. Nesse sentido, o aspecto biográficos do autor e a forma como se apresentam os personagens na obra são fatores de cotejamento na obra original e na tradução brasileira. Francis Scott Key Fitzgerald (1896 – 1940 é famoso por ter em suas obras traços biográficos, algo que certamente influencia o leitor que adentra a sua obra. Quanto à recepção de O Grande Gatsby no contexto brasileiro, há que se considerar que O Grande Gatsby teve diversas traduções no Brasil. Depois dessa tradução de Vanessa Bárbara, em 2011, outras três vieram em 2013, juntamente com o filme. Há que considerar os aspectos comerciais embutidos nessas traduções e que muito corroboram para o resultado final. Prova disso são as capas, que são sempre diferenciadas em cada edição lançada. O tradutor nem sempre pode opinar sobre questões como estas. A tradução, a meu ver, é uma obra de qualidade, visto que a tradutora buscou ser fiel, sem dificultar a interpretação da obra para o leitor.

  15. Review: The Great Gatsby

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonia de Jesus Sales

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available A presente resenha busca discutir a tradução de The Great Gatsby para o contexto brasileiro. Diversas traduções foram feitas, em diversas épocas e com repercussão positiva no contexto brasileiro. Para o presente estudo, foi observada a tradução de Vanessa Bárbara, de 2011. Nesse sentido, o aspecto biográficos do autor e a forma como se apresentam os personagens na obra são fatores de cotejamento na obra original e na tradução brasileira. Francis Scott Key Fitzgerald (1896 – 1940 é famoso por ter em suas obras traços biográficos, algo que certamente influencia o leitor que adentra a sua obra. Quanto à recepção de O Grande Gatsby no contexto brasileiro, há que se considerar que O Grande Gatsby teve diversas traduções no Brasil. Depois dessa tradução de Vanessa Bárbara, em 2011, outras três vieram em 2013, juntamente com o filme. Há que considerar os aspectos comerciais embutidos nessas traduções e que muito corroboram para o resultado final. Prova disso são as capas, que são sempre diferenciadas em cada edição lançada. O tradutor nem sempre pode opinar sobre questões como estas. A tradução, a meu ver, é uma obra de qualidade, visto que a tradutora buscou ser fiel, sem dificultar a interpretação da obra para o leitor.

  16. Determination model for cetane number of biodiesel at different fatty acid composition: a review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michal Angelovič

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available The most accepted definition of biodiesel is stated at the EU technical regulation EN 14214 (2008 or in the USA in ASTM 6751-02. As a result of this highly strict description only methyl esters of fatty acids conform to these definitions, nevertheless the term ‘‘biodiesel’’ is spread out to other alkyl fatty esters. Some countries have adopted bioethanol for replacement of methanol in biodiesel transesterification and thus assuring a fully biological fuel. Of course, such position brings some problems in fulfilling technical requirements of EN 14214 or ASTM 6751-02. Biodiesel is actually a less complex mixture than petrodiesel, but different feedstock origins and the effect of seasonality may impose difficulties in fuel quality control. Since biodiesel is an alternative diesel fuel derived from the transesterification of triacylglycerol comprised materials, such as vegetable oils or animal fats, with simple alcohols to furnish the corresponding mono-alkyl esters, its composition depends on the raw material used, the cultivated area location, and harvest time. The choice of the raw material is usually the most important factor for fluctuations of biodiesel composition, because different vegetable oils and animal fats may contain different types of fatty acids. Important properties of this fuel vary significantly with the composition of the mixture. Cetane number, melting point, degree of saturation, density, cloud point, pour point, viscosity, and nitrogen oxides exhaust emission (NOx, for instance, deserve to be mentioned. One of the most important fuel quality indicators is the cetane number; however its experimental determination may be an expensive and lengthy task. To weaken situation concerning biodiesel, the availability of data in the literature is also scarce. In such scenario, the use of reliable models to predict the cetane number or any other essential characteristic may be of great utility. We reviewed available literature to

  17. Plasmonic Resonances for Spectroscopy Applications using 3D Finite-Difference Time-Domain Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ravi, Aruna

    composition. The chemical composition of respirable particles is of great interest from health, atmospheric, and environmental perspectives. Different environments may pose different hazards and spectroscopic challenges. Common mineral components of airborne and atmospheric dust samples have strong IR transitions with wavelengths that match particle size, giving rise to interesting lineshape distortions. These models enable the determination of volume fractions of components in individual particles that are mixtures of many materials, as are the dust particles inhaled into people's lungs.

  18. Comparing the Goodness of Different Statistical Criteria for Evaluating the Soil Water Infiltration Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Mirzaee

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: The infiltration process is one of the most important components of the hydrologic cycle. Quantifying the infiltration water into soil is of great importance in watershed management. Prediction of flooding, erosion and pollutant transport all depends on the rate of runoff which is directly affected by the rate of infiltration. Quantification of infiltration water into soil is also necessary to determine the availability of water for crop growth and to estimate the amount of additional water needed for irrigation. Thus, an accurate model is required to estimate infiltration of water into soil. The ability of physical and empirical models in simulation of soil processes is commonly measured through comparisons of simulated and observed values. For these reasons, a large variety of indices have been proposed and used over the years in comparison of infiltration water into soil models. Among the proposed indices, some are absolute criteria such as the widely used root mean square error (RMSE, while others are relative criteria (i.e. normalized such as the Nash and Sutcliffe (1970 efficiency criterion (NSE. Selecting and using appropriate statistical criteria to evaluate and interpretation of the results for infiltration water into soil models is essential because each of the used criteria focus on specific types of errors. Also, descriptions of various goodness of fit indices or indicators including their advantages and shortcomings, and rigorous discussions on the suitability of each index are very important. The objective of this study is to compare the goodness of different statistical criteria to evaluate infiltration of water into soil models. Comparison techniques were considered to define the best models: coefficient of determination (R2, root mean square error (RMSE, efficiency criteria (NSEI and modified forms (such as NSEjI, NSESQRTI, NSElnI and NSEiI. Comparatively little work has been carried out on the meaning and

  19. Great Lakes Environmental Database (GLENDA)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — The Great Lakes Environmental Database (GLENDA) houses environmental data on a wide variety of constituents in water, biota, sediment, and air in the Great Lakes area.

  20. Modeling large offshore wind farms under different atmospheric stability regimes with the Park wake model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pena Diaz, Alfredo; Réthoré, Pierre-Elouan; Rathmann, Ole

    2014-01-01

    We evaluate a modified version of the Park wake model against power data from a west-east row in the middle of the Horns Rev I offshore wind farm. The evaluation is performed on data classified in four different atmospheric stability conditions, for a narrow wind speed range, and a wide range...... turbines on the row and those using the WAsP recommended value closer to the data for the first turbines. It is generally seen that under stable and unstable atmospheric conditions the power deficits are the highest and lowest, respectively, but the wind conditions under both stability regimes...

  1. Optimized Finite-Difference Coefficients for Hydroacoustic Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Preston, L. A.

    2014-12-01

    Responsible utilization of marine renewable energy sources through the use of current energy converter (CEC) and wave energy converter (WEC) devices requires an understanding of the noise generation and propagation from these systems in the marine environment. Acoustic noise produced by rotating turbines, for example, could adversely affect marine animals and human-related marine activities if not properly understood and mitigated. We are utilizing a 3-D finite-difference acoustic simulation code developed at Sandia that can accurately propagate noise in the complex bathymetry in the near-shore to open ocean environment. As part of our efforts to improve computation efficiency in the large, high-resolution domains required in this project, we investigate the effects of using optimized finite-difference coefficients on the accuracy of the simulations. We compare accuracy and runtime of various finite-difference coefficients optimized via criteria such as maximum numerical phase speed error, maximum numerical group speed error, and L-1 and L-2 norms of weighted numerical group and phase speed errors over a given spectral bandwidth. We find that those coefficients optimized for L-1 and L-2 norms are superior in accuracy to those based on maximal error and can produce runtimes of 10% of the baseline case, which uses Taylor Series finite-difference coefficients at the Courant time step limit. We will present comparisons of the results for the various cases evaluated as well as recommendations for utilization of the cases studied. Sandia National Laboratories is a multi-program laboratory managed and operated by Sandia Corporation, a wholly owned subsidiary of Lockheed Martin Corporation, for the U.S. Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-AC04-94AL85000.

  2. Cryosphere-hydrosphere interactions: Numerical modeling using the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) at different scales

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bergamasco, A.; Carniel, S.; Sclavo, M.; Budgell, W.P.

    2005-01-01

    Conveyor belt circulation controls global climate through heat and water fluxes with atmosphere and from tropical to polar regions and vice versa. This circulation, commonly referred to as thermohaline circulation (THC), seems to have millennium time scale and nowadays-a non-glacial period-appears to be as rather stable. However, concern is raised by the buildup of CO 2 and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere (IPCC, Third assessment report: Climate Change 2001. A contribution 01 working group I, n and In to the Third Assessment Report of the intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge Univ. Press, UK) 2001, http://www.ipcc.ch) as these may affect the THC conveyor paths. Since it is widely recognized that dense water formation sites ad as primary sources in strengthening quasi-stable THC paths (Stommel H., Tellus, 13 (1961) 224), in order to simulate properly the consequences of such scenarios a better understanding of these oceanic processes is needed. To successfully model these processes, air sea-ice-integrated modelling approaches are often required. Here we focus on two polar regions using the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS). In the first region investigated, the North Atlantic-Arctic, where open-ocean Jeep convection and open-sea ire formation and dispersion under the intense air-sea interactions are the major engines, we use a new version of the coupled hydrodynamic-ice ROMS model. The second area belongs to the Antarctica region inside the Southern Ocean, where brine rejections during ice formation inside shelf seas origin dense water that, flowing along the continental slope, overflow becoming eventually abyssal waters. Results show how nowadays integrated-modelling tasks have become more and more feasible and effective; numerical simulations dealing with large computational domains or challenging different climate scenarios can be run on multi-processors platforms and on systems like LINUX clusters, made of the same hardware as PCs, and

  3. Improving Junior High Schools' Critical Thinking Skills Based on Test Three Different Models of Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuad, Nur Miftahul; Zubaidah, Siti; Mahanal, Susriyati; Suarsini, Endang

    2017-01-01

    The aims of this study were (1) to find out the differences in critical thinking skills among students who were given three different learning models: differentiated science inquiry combined with mind map, differentiated science inquiry model, and conventional model, (2) to find out the differences of critical thinking skills among male and female…

  4. Comparison of different modelling strategies for simulating gas exchange of Douglas-fir forest

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wijk, van M.T.; Bouten, W.; Verstraten, J.M.

    2002-01-01

    Carbon and latent heat fluxes can be simulated with different model strategies to fulfil different research purposes. In this study we compared four different model concepts: artificial neural networks (ANN), fuzzy logic (FL), an index model (IM, using light use efficiency and water use efficiency)

  5. Great Lakes Research Review, 1982. Appendices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1982-11-01

    presently limited to two species; and finally the question of tihe bioavailability . (p. 24) 1978 Annual Report ScienL~sts have different opinions on...substances into the Great ’akes and their environmental and human health effects (p. 7) methodology for determining relative bioavailability of various...institutiuns which are nut incluoea ir, this review that ricmy unuertake sone projects dealing with the Great Lakes. However, the intention of this

  6. Bone healing models in rat tibia after different injuries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hussar, P; Piirsoo, A; Märtson, A; Toom, A; Haviko, T; Hussar, U

    2001-01-01

    Gradual elaboration of an adequate and efficient multistage method for experimental remodelling of specific wound healing process--bone repair. Comparison of clinical characteristics with the results of microanatomy, histology, electronmicroscopy and computer morphometry. An investigation of posttraumatic bone repair after internal fracture, excision and cortical perforation was carried out on 142 young adult male Wistar rats. The repair was studied in normal and affected animals (exercises, immobilization, isolation of periost) at 1-42 days after operation. The posttraumatic bone callus development and the related soft tissue repair, likewise the continuous remodelling, is an ordinary process of osteohisto- and organogenese. In trained rats the blood supply and bone formation is increased, whereas in immobilized animals it is inhibited and destroyed (osteoporose, pseudoarthrosis). After the injury some characteristics of bone repair histogenese will be became evident (after the perforation the primary endosteal and secondary periosteal ossification, inhibition of endosteal bone repair after the isolation of periost etc.). The posttraumatic bone healing, like embryohistogenese, has similar repair stages in all models of the experiments as well as similar tissue and cell responses (callus formation, its replacement, bone remodelling, etc.). However, the repair process in general (order of chondrous and/or bone callus stages, etc.) is variable and dependent on the mode and degree of injury. The use of bone cortex perforation in wound healing study is more recommendable as compared to internal fracture and excision (possibility of in situ study the periost and callus tissue compartments in bone repair machinery separately).

  7. Different approach to the modeling of nonfree particle diffusion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buhl, Niels

    2018-03-01

    A new approach to the modeling of nonfree particle diffusion is presented. The approach uses a general setup based on geometric graphs (networks of curves), which means that particle diffusion in anything from arrays of barriers and pore networks to general geometric domains can be considered and that the (free random walk) central limit theorem can be generalized to cover also the nonfree case. The latter gives rise to a continuum-limit description of the diffusive motion where the effect of partially absorbing barriers is accounted for in a natural and non-Markovian way that, in contrast to the traditional approach, quantifies the absorptivity of a barrier in terms of a dimensionless parameter in the range 0 to 1. The generalized theorem gives two general analytic expressions for the continuum-limit propagator: an infinite sum of Gaussians and an infinite sum of plane waves. These expressions entail the known method-of-images and Laplace eigenfunction expansions as special cases and show how the presence of partially absorbing barriers can lead to phenomena such as line splitting and band gap formation in the plane wave wave-number spectrum.

  8. The Large-scale Coronal Structure of the 2017 August 21 Great American Eclipse: An Assessment of Solar Surface Flux Transport Model Enabled Predictions and Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nandy, Dibyendu; Bhowmik, Prantika; Yeates, Anthony R.; Panda, Suman; Tarafder, Rajashik; Dash, Soumyaranjan

    2018-01-01

    On 2017 August 21, a total solar eclipse swept across the contiguous United States, providing excellent opportunities for diagnostics of the Sun’s corona. The Sun’s coronal structure is notoriously difficult to observe except during solar eclipses; thus, theoretical models must be relied upon for inferring the underlying magnetic structure of the Sun’s outer atmosphere. These models are necessary for understanding the role of magnetic fields in the heating of the corona to a million degrees and the generation of severe space weather. Here we present a methodology for predicting the structure of the coronal field based on model forward runs of a solar surface flux transport model, whose predicted surface field is utilized to extrapolate future coronal magnetic field structures. This prescription was applied to the 2017 August 21 solar eclipse. A post-eclipse analysis shows good agreement between model simulated and observed coronal structures and their locations on the limb. We demonstrate that slow changes in the Sun’s surface magnetic field distribution driven by long-term flux emergence and its evolution governs large-scale coronal structures with a (plausibly cycle-phase dependent) dynamical memory timescale on the order of a few solar rotations, opening up the possibility for large-scale, global corona predictions at least a month in advance.

  9. Future water availability in the largest freshwater Mediterranean lake is at great risk as evidenced from simulations with the SWAT model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bucak, Tuba; Trolle, Dennis; Andersen, Hans Estrup; Thodsen, Hans; Erdoğan, Şeyda; Levi, Eti E; Filiz, Nur; Jeppesen, Erik; Beklioğlu, Meryem

    2017-03-01

    Inter- and intra-annual water level fluctuations and changes in water flow regime are intrinsic characteristics of Mediterranean lakes. Additionally, considering climate change projections for the water-limited Mediterranean region, increased air temperatures and decreased precipitation are anticipated, leading to dramatic declines in lake water levels as well as severe water scarcity problems. The study site, Lake Beyşehir, the largest freshwater lake in the Mediterranean basin, is - like other Mediterranean lakes - threatened by climatic changes and over-abstraction of water for irrigated crop farming. Therefore, implementation of strict water level management policies is required. In this study, an integrated modeling approach was used to predict the future water levels of Lake Beyşehir in response to potential future changes in climate and land use. Water level estimation was performed by linking the catchment model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) with a Support Vector Regression model (ε-SVR). The projected increase in temperature and decrease in precipitation based on the climate change models led to an enhanced potential evapotranspiration and reduced total runoff. On the other hand, the effects of various land use scenarios within the catchment appeared to be comparatively insignificant. According to the ε-SVR model results, changes in hydrological processes caused a water level reduction for all scenarios. Moreover, the MPI-ESM-MR General Circulation Model outputs produced the most dramatic results by predicting that Lake Beyşehir may dry out by the 2040s with the current outflow regime. The results indicate that shallow Mediterranean lakes may face a severe risk of drying out and losing their ecosystem values in the near future if the current intensity of water abstraction is not reduced. In addition, the results also demonstrate that outflow management and sustainable use of water sources are vital to sustain lake ecosystems in water

  10. Style Congruency and Persuasion: A Cross-Cultural Study Into the Influence of Differences in Style Dimensions on the Persuasiveness of Business Newsletters in Great Britain and the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hendriks, B.C.; Meurs, W.F.J. van; Korzilius, H.P.L.M.; Pair, R.G. le; Blanc-Damen, S. le

    2012-01-01

    Abstract—Research problem: The purpose of the present study was to investigate whether style congruency on the dimensions succinct-elaborate and instrumental-affective influenced the persuasiveness of business newsletters in the Netherlands and Great Britain. Research question: Is a writing style

  11. Data assimilation of a ten-day period during June 1993 over the Southern Great Plains Site using a nested mesoscale model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dudhia, J.; Guo, Y.R. [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)

    1996-04-01

    A goal of the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program has been to obtain a complete representation of physical processes on the scale of a general circulation model (GCM) grid box in order to better parameterize radiative processes in these models. Since an observational network of practical size cannot be used alone to characterize the Cloud and Radiation Testbed (CART) site`s 3D structure and time development, data assimilation using the enhanced observations together with a mesoscale model is used to give a full 4D analysis at high resolution. The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)/Penn State Mesoscale Model (MM5) has been applied over a ten-day continuous period in a triple-nested mode with grid sizes of 60, 20 and 6.67 in. The outer domain covers the United States` 48 contiguous states; the innermost is a 480-km square centered on Lamont, Oklahoma. A simulation has been run with data assimilation using the Mesoscale Analysis and Prediction System (MAPS) 60-km analyses from the Forecast Systems Laboratory (FSL) of the National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The nested domains take boundary conditions from and feed back continually to their parent meshes (i.e., they are two-way interactive). As reported last year, this provided a simulation of the basic features of mesoscale events over the CART site during the period 16-26 June 1993 when an Intensive Observation Period (IOP) was under way.

  12. Hydrologic models of modern and fossil geothermal systems in the Great Basin: Genetic implications for epithermal Au-Ag and Carlin-type gold deposits

    Science.gov (United States)

    Person, M.; Banerjee, A.; Hofstra, A.; Sweetkind, D.; Gao, Y.

    2008-01-01

    The Great Basin region in the western United States contains active geothermal systems, large epithermal Au-Ag deposits, and world-class Carlin-type gold deposits. Temperature profiles, fluid inclusion studies, and isotopic evidence suggest that modern and fossil hydrothermal systems associated with gold mineralization share many common features, including the absence of a clear magmatic fluid source, discharge areas restricted to fault zones, and remarkably high temperatures (>200 ??C) at shallow depths (200-1500 m). While the plumbing of these systems varies, geochemical and isotopic data collected at the Dixie Valley and Beowawe geothermal systems suggest that fluid circulation along fault zones was relatively deep (>5 km) and comprised of relatively unexchanged Pleistocene meteoric water with small (horizons. Those with minimal fluid ?? 18O shifts are restricted to high-permeability fault zones and relatively small-scale (???5 km), single-pass flow systems (e.g., Beowawe). Those with intermediate to large isotopic shifts (e.g., epithermal and Carlin-type Au) had larger-scale (???15 km) loop convection cells with a greater component of flow through marine sedimentary rocks at lower water/rock ratios and greater endowments of gold. Enthalpy calculations constrain the duration of Carlin-type gold systems to probably account for the amount of silica in the sinter deposits. In the Carlin trend, fluid circulation extended down into Paleozoic siliciclastic rocks, which afforded more mixing with isotopically enriched higher enthalpy fluids. Computed fission track ages along the Carlin trend included the convective effects, and ranged between 91.6 and 35.3 Ma. Older fission track ages occurred in zones of groundwater recharge, and the younger ages occurred in discharge areas. This is largely consistent with fission track ages reported in recent studies. We found that either an amagmatic system with more permeable faults (10-11 m2) or a magmatic system with less

  13. Explaining discrepancies in passive microwave cloud-radiation databases in microphysical context from two different cloud-resolving models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mugnai, A.; Smith, E. A.; Tripoli, G. J.; Dietrich, S.; Kotroni, V.; Lagouvardos, K.; Medaglia, C. M.

    2008-10-01

    Mesoscale Cloud Resolving Models (CRMs) are often used to generate descriptions of the microphysical properties of precipitating clouds for the purpose of guiding precipitation retrieval algorithms designed for satellite-borne passive microwave radiometers. However, CRMs were not originally designed for that purpose. Notably, individual CRMs have adopted different bulk microphysical schemes to optimize the dynamical evolution of storms and accumulated rainfall, rather than optimizing for simulations of radiative properties - which are greatly affected by the microphysical details and vertical distributions of liquid and frozen hydrometeors. Thus, in principle, the simulated upwelling passive microwave (PMW) brightness temperatures (TBs) and associated precipitation retrievals generated by means of different CRMs with different microphysical parameterizations may be significantly different - even when the different CRMs prognostically adhere to the main dynamical and precipitation characteristics of a given storm. We investigate this issue for two different mesoscale models run at CRM scales, each using different parameterizations for the ongoing microphysics. These are the University of Wisconsin Nonhydrostatic Modeling System (NMS) and the 5th generation version of the Pennsylvania State University/National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model (MM5). These two models are used to simulate the same flood-producing storm that occurred over northern Italy during 24-26 November 2002. Model outputs that best reproduce the structure of the storm, as observed by the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR-E) onboard the NASA AQUA satellite, are used to calculate upwelling PMW TBs. The simulated TBs are then used for retrieving the precipitation fields in conjunction with the AMSR-E observations. Finally, the two sets of results are intercompared in order to provide an indication of the expected uncertainties in CRM-based precipitation retrievals due to

  14. Multinomial Response Models, for Modeling and Determining Important Factors in Different Contraceptive Methods in Women

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E Haji Nejad

    2001-06-01

    Full Text Available Difference aspects of multinomial statistical modelings and its classifications has been studied so far. In these type of problems Y is the qualitative random variable with T possible states which are considered as classifications. The goal is prediction of Y based on a random Vector X ? IR^m. Many methods for analyzing these problems were considered. One of the modern and general method of classification is Classification and Regression Trees (CART. Another method is recursive partitioning techniques which has a strange relationship with nonparametric regression. Classical discriminant analysis is a standard method for analyzing these type of data. Flexible discriminant analysis method which is a combination of nonparametric regression and discriminant analysis and classification using spline that includes least square regression and additive cubic splines. Neural network is an advanced statistical method for analyzing these types of data. In this paper properties of multinomial logistics regression were investigated and this method was used for modeling effective factors in selecting contraceptive methods in Ghom province for married women age 15-49. The response variable has a tetranomial distibution. The levels of this variable are: nothing, pills, traditional and a collection of other contraceptive methods. A collection of significant independent variables were: place, age of women, education, history of pregnancy and family size. Menstruation age and age at marriage were not statistically significant.

  15. Differences in the hydrological cycle and sensitivity between multiscale modeling frameworks with and without a higher-order turbulence closure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Kuan-Man; Li, Zhujun; Cheng, Anning; Blossey, Peter N.; Stan, Cristiana

    2017-09-01

    Current conventional global climate models (GCMs) produce a weak increase in global-mean precipitation with anthropogenic warming in comparison with the lower tropospheric moisture increases. The motive of this study is to understand the differences in the hydrological sensitivity between two multiscale modeling frameworks (MMFs) that arise from the different treatments of turbulence and low clouds in order to aid to the understanding of the model spread among conventional GCMs. We compare the hydrological sensitivity and its energetic constraint from MMFs with (SPCAM-IPHOC) or without (SPCAM) an advanced higher-order turbulence closure. SPCAM-IPHOC simulates higher global hydrological sensitivity for the slow response but lower sensitivity for the fast response than SPCAM. Their differences are comparable to the spreads of conventional GCMs. The higher sensitivity in SPCAM-IPHOC is associated with the higher ratio of the changes in latent heating to those in net atmospheric radiative cooling, which is further related to a stronger decrease in the Bowen ratio with warming than in SPCAM. The higher sensitivity of cloud radiative cooling resulting from the lack of low clouds in SPCAM is another major factor in contributing to the lower precipitation sensitivity. The two MMFs differ greatly in the hydrological sensitivity over the tropical lands, where the simulated sensitivity of surface sensible heat fluxes to surface warming and CO2 increase in SPCAM-IPHOC is weaker than in SPCAM. The difference in divergences of dry static energy flux simulated by the two MMFs also contributes to the difference in land precipitation sensitivity between the two models.

  16. Developing Students’ Reflections about the Function and Status of Mathematical Modeling in Different Scientific Practices

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kjeldsen, Tinne Hoff; Blomhøj, Morten

    2013-01-01

    Mathematical models and mathematical modeling play different roles in the different areas and problems in which they are used. The function and status of mathematical modeling and models in the different areas depend on the scientific practice as well as the underlying philosophical and theoretical...... position held by the modeler(s) and the practitioners in the extra-mathematical domain. For students to experience the significance of different scientific practices and cultures for the function and status of mathematical modeling in other sciences, students need to be placed in didactical situations...... where such differences are exposed and made into explicit objects of their reflections. It can be difficult to create such situations in the teaching of contemporary science in which modeling is part of the culture. In this paper we show how history can serve as a means for students to be engaged...

  17. On the Application of Macros to the Automation of different Dating Models Using ''210 Pb

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gasco, C.; Anton, M. P.; Ampudia, J.

    2002-01-01

    Different Dating models based on 210 Pb measurements, used for verifying recent events are shown in this report as well as, models that describe different processes affecting the vertical distribution of radionuclides in lacustrine and marine sediments. Macro-Commands are programmes included in calculation work sheets that allow automatised operations to run. In this report macros are used to: a) obtain 210 Pb results from a data base created from different sampling campaigns b) apply different dating models automatically c) optimise the diffusion coefficient employed by models through standards deviation calculations among experimental values and those obtained by the model. (Author) 21 refs

  18. Do different methods of modeling statin treatment effectiveness influence the optimal decision?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    B.J.H. van Kempen (Bob); B.S. Ferket (Bart); A. Hofman (Albert); S. Spronk (Sandra); E.W. Steyerberg (Ewout); M.G.M. Hunink (Myriam)

    2012-01-01

    textabstractPurpose. Modeling studies that evaluate statin treatment for the prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) use different methods to model the effect of statins. The aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of using different modeling methods on the optimal decision found in such

  19. Prediction of Pig Trade Movements in Different European Production Systems Using Exponential Random Graph Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Relun, Anne; Grosbois, Vladimir; Alexandrov, Tsviatko; Sánchez-Vizcaíno, Jose M; Waret-Szkuta, Agnes; Molia, Sophie; Etter, Eric Marcel Charles; Martínez-López, Beatriz

    2017-01-01

    In most European countries, data regarding movements of live animals are routinely collected and can greatly aid predictive epidemic modeling. However, the use of complete movements' dataset to conduct policy-relevant predictions has been so far limited by the massive amount of data that have to be processed (e.g., in intensive commercial systems) or the restricted availability of timely and updated records on animal movements (e.g., in areas where small-scale or extensive production is predominant). The aim of this study was to use exponential random graph models (ERGMs) to reproduce, understand, and predict pig trade networks in different European production systems. Three trade networks were built by aggregating movements of pig batches among premises (farms and trade operators) over 2011 in Bulgaria, Extremadura (Spain), and Côtes-d'Armor (France), where small-scale, extensive, and intensive pig production are predominant, respectively. Three ERGMs were fitted to each network with various demographic and geographic attributes of the nodes as well as six internal network configurations. Several statistical and graphical diagnostic methods were applied to assess the goodness of fit of the models. For all systems, both exogenous (attribute-based) and endogenous (network-based) processes appeared to govern the structure of pig trade network, and neither alone were capable of capturing all aspects of the network structure. Geographic mixing patterns strongly structured pig trade organization in the small-scale production system, whereas belonging to the same company or keeping pigs in the same housing system appeared to be key drivers of pig trade, in intensive and extensive production systems, respectively. Heterogeneous mixing between types of production also explained a part of network structure, whichever production system considered. Limited information is thus needed to capture most of the global structure of pig trade networks. Such findings will be useful

  20. Great Barrier Reef, Queensland, Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    1990-01-01

    This detailed view of the Great Barrier Reef, Queensland, Australia (19.5S, 149.5E) shows several small patch reefs within the overall reef system. The Great Barrier Reef, largest in the world, comprises thousands of individual reefs of great variety and are closely monitored by marine ecologists. These reefs are about 6000 years old and sit on top of much older reefs. The most rapid coral growth occurs on the landward side of the reefs.

  1. Doing Great Things in Great Neck, New York

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olson, Catherine Applefeld

    2007-01-01

    This article features Joe Rutkowski, an instrumental music director at Great Neck North School in New York. Rutkowski had been teaching for 17 years at Great Neck North and is quite popular for the way he makes his students deeply involved with music. Rutkowski, who is a fourth-generation musician in a family of instrumentalists, received…

  2. Comparison of Different GPP Models in China Using MODIS Image and ChinaFLUX Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhengjia Liu

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Accurate quantification of gross primary production (GPP at regional and global scales is essential for carbon budgets and climate change studies. Five models, the vegetation photosynthesis model (VPM, the temperature and greenness model (TG, the alpine vegetation model (AVM, the greenness and radiation model (GR, and the MOD17 algorithm, were tested and calibrated at eight sites in China during 2003–2005. Results indicate that the first four models provide more reliable GPP estimation than MOD17 products/algorithm, although MODIS GPP products show better performance in grasslands, croplands, and mixed forest (MF. VPM and AVM produce better estimates in forest sites (R2 = 0.68 and 0.67, respectively; AVM and TG models show satisfactory GPP estimates for grasslands (R2 = 0.91 and 0.9, respectively. In general, the VPM model is the most suitable model for GPP estimation for all kinds of land cover types in China, with R2 higher than 0.34 and root mean square error (RMSE lower than 48.79%. The relationships between eddy CO2 flux and model parameters (Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI, photosynthetically active radiation (PAR, land surface temperature (LST, air temperature, and Land Surface Water Index (LSWI are further analyzed to investigate the model’s application to various land cover types, which will be of great importance for studying the effects of climatic factors on ecosystem performances.

  3. Pitfalls in urinary stone identification using CT attenuation values: Are we getting the same information on different scanner models?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Grosjean, Romain, E-mail: r.grosjean@chu-nancy.fr [IADI Laboratory, INSERM-U947, Nancy-University, Allée du Morvan, 54500 Vandoeuvre-les-Nancy (France); Daudon, Michel, E-mail: michel.daudon@tnn.aphp.fr [IADI Laboratory, INSERM-U947, Nancy-University, Allée du Morvan, 54500 Vandoeuvre-les-Nancy (France); Chammas, Mario F., E-mail: mariochammas@usp.br [University of Sao Paulo – Division of Urology, Av. Dr. Enéas de Carvalho Aguiar, 255, 7" o Andar – s. 7123, São Paulo (Brazil); Claudon, Michel, E-mail: m.claudon@chu-nancy.fr [IADI Laboratory, INSERM-U947, Nancy-University, Allée du Morvan, 54500 Vandoeuvre-les-Nancy (France); Eschwege, Pascal, E-mail: peschwege@yahoo.com [Department of Urology, Brabois Hospital, University Hospital of Nancy, Allée du Morvan, 54511 Vandoeuvre-les-Nancy (France); Felblinger, Jacques, E-mail: j.felblinger@chu-nancy.fr [IADI Laboratory, INSERM-U947, Nancy-University, Allée du Morvan, 54500 Vandoeuvre-les-Nancy (France); Hubert, Jacques, E-mail: j.hubert@chu-nancy.fr [Department of Urology, Brabois Hospital, University Hospital of Nancy, Allée du Morvan, 54511 Vandoeuvre-les-Nancy (France)

    2013-08-15

    Introduction: Evaluate the capability of different Computed Tomography scanners to determine urinary stone compositions based on CT attenuation values and to evaluate potential differences between each model. Methods: 241 human urinary stones were obtained and their biochemical composition determined. Four different CT scanners (Siemens, Philips, GEMS and Toshiba) were evaluated. Mean CT-attenuation values and the standard deviation were recorded separately and compared with a t-paired test. Results: For all tested CT scanners, when the classification of the various types of stones was arranged according to the mean CT-attenuation values and to the confidence interval, large overlappings between stone types were highlighted. The t-paired test showed that most stone types could not be identified. Some types of stones presented mean CT attenuation values significantly different from one CT scanner to another. At 80 kV, the mean CT attenuation values obtained with the Toshiba Aquilion were significantly different from those obtained with the Siemens Sensation. On the other hand, mean values obtained with the Philips Brilliance were all significantly equal to those obtained with the Siemens Sensation and with the Toshiba Aquilion. At 120 kV mean CT attenuation values of uric acid, cystine and struvite stones obtained with the Philips model are significantly different from those obtained with the Siemens and the Toshiba but equal to those obtained with the GE 64. Conclusions: According to our study, there is a great variability when different brands and models of scanners are compared directly. Furthermore, the CT scan analysis and HU evaluation appears to gather insufficient information in order to characterize and identify the composition of renal stones.

  4. Natural gas is not electricity. Switzerland is not Great Britain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weinmann, H. P.

    1999-01-01

    The production and procurement of natural gas and electricity are governed by different criteria. The electricity industry model cannot simply be transposed to the Swiss gas market after liberalization. Moreover, the structure of the Swiss gas industry is not the same as that of the electricity sector. For similar reasons, the privatization model adopted for the United Kingdom gas industry is not applicable to Switzerland. Competition already exists on the heating market, while procurement costs do not vary greatly because of the investments involved. Big price cuts cannot therefore be anticipated when the Swiss gas market is liberalized. (author)

  5. Will Coral Islands maintain their growth over the next century? A deterministic model of sediment availability at Lady Elliot Island, Great Barrier Reef.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamylton, Sarah

    2014-01-01

    A geomorphic assessment of reef system calcification is conducted for past (3200 Ka to present), present and future (2010-2100) time periods. Reef platform sediment production is estimated at 569 m3 yr-1 using rate laws that express gross community carbonate production as a function of seawater aragonite saturation, community composition and rugosity and incorporating estimates of carbonate removal from the reef system. Key carbonate producers including hard coral, crustose coralline algae and Halimeda are mapped accurately (mean R2 = 0.81). Community net production estimates correspond closely to independent census-based estimates made in-situ (R2 = 0.86). Reef-scale outputs are compared with historic rates of production generated from (i) radiocarbon evidence of island deposition initiation around 3200 years ago, and (ii) island volume calculated from a high resolution island digital elevation model. Contemporary carbonate production rates appear to be remarkably similar to historical values of 573 m3 yr-1. Anticipated future seawater chemistry parameters associated with an RCP8.5 emissions scenario are employed to model rates of net community calcification for the period 2000-2100 on the basis of an inorganic aragonite precipitation law, under the assumption of constant benthic community character. Simulations indicate that carbonate production will decrease linearly to a level of 118 m3 yr-1 by 2100 and that by 2150 aragonite saturation levels may no longer support the positive budgetary status necessary to sustain island accretion. Novel aspects of this assessment include the development of rate law parameters to realistically represent the variable composition of coral reef benthic carbonate producers, incorporation of three dimensional rugosity of the entire reef platform and the coupling of model outputs with both historical radiocarbon dating evidence and forward hydrochemical projections to conduct an assessment of island evolution through time

  6. Different effects of meteorological factors on hand, foot and mouth disease in various climates: a spatial panel data model analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Chao; Cao, Kai; Zhang, Yingjie; Fang, Liqun; Li, Xia; Xu, Qin; Huang, Fangfang; Tao, Lixin; Guo, Jin; Gao, Qi; Guo, Xiuhua

    2016-05-26

    Major outbreaks of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) have been reported in China since 2008, posing a great threat to the health of children. Although many studies have examined the effect of meteorological variables on the incidence of HFMD, the results have been inconsistent. This study aimed to quantify the relationship between meteorological factors and HFMD occurrence in different climates of mainland China using spatial panel data models. All statistical analyses were carried out according to different climate types. We firstly conducted a descriptive analysis to summarize the epidemic characteristics of HFMD from May 2008 to November 2012 and then detected the spatial autocorrelation of HFMD using a global autocorrelation statistic (Moran's I) in each month. Finally, the association between HFMD incidence and meteorological factors was explored by spatial panel data models. The 353 regions were divided into 4 groups according to climate (G1: subtropical monsoon climate; G2: temperate monsoon climate; G3: temperate continental climate; G4: plateau mountain climate). The Moran's I values were significant with high correlations in most months of group G1 and G2 and some months of group G3 and G4. This suggested the existence of a high spatial autocorrelation with HFMD. Spatial panel data models were more appropriate to describe the data than fixed effect models. The results showed that HFMD incidences were significantly associated with average atmospheric pressure (AAP), average temperature (AT), average vapor pressure (AVP), average relative humidity (ARH), monthly precipitation (MP), average wind speed (AWS), monthly total sunshine hours (MSH), mean temperature difference (MTD), rain day (RD) and average temperature distance (ATD), but the effect of meteorological factors might differ in various climate types. Spatial panel data models are useful and effective when longitudinal data are available and spatial autocorrelation exists. Our findings showed that

  7. Modeling position-specific isotope fractionation of organic micropollutants degradation via different reaction pathways

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jin, Biao; Rolle, Massimo

    : dichlorobenzamide (BAM), isoproturon (IPU) and diclofenac (DCF). The model successfully reproduces the multi-element isotope data, and precisely captures the dual element isotope trends, characterizing the different degradation pathways. Besides illustrating the model capability of mechanistic evaluation...

  8. Position-specific isotope modeling of organic micropollutants transformation through different reaction pathways

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jin, Biao; Rolle, Massimo

    2016-01-01

    description of isotope fractionation occurring at different molecular positions. To demonstrate specific features of the modeling approach, we simulated the degradation of three selected organic micropollutants: dichlorobenzamide (BAM), isoproturon (IPU) and diclofenac (DCF). The model accurately reproduces...

  9. Combined finite difference-lumped modelling of fluid loaded Cmut arrays

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meynier, Cyril; Teston, Franck; Jeanne, Edgard; Bernard, Jean Edouard; Certon, Dominique

    2010-01-01

    This paper describes a model based on mixed finite-difference - lumped modeling to compute the frequency response of cMUTs in array element. Electrical impedance and laser interferometry measurements are presented and compared with theory.

  10. Three Different Ways of Calibrating Burger's Contact Model for Viscoelastic Model of Asphalt Mixtures by Discrete Element Method

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Feng, Huan; Pettinari, Matteo; Stang, Henrik

    2016-01-01

    in the commercial software PFC3D, including the slip model, linear stiffness-contact model, and contact bond model. A macro-scale Burger's model was first established and the input parameters of Burger's contact model were calibrated by adjusting them so that the model fitted the experimental data for the complex...... modulus. Three different approaches have been used and compared for calibrating the Burger's contact model. Values of the dynamic modulus and phase angle of asphalt mixtures were predicted by conducting DE simulation under dynamic strain control loading. The excellent agreement between the predicted...

  11. Detecting Difference between Process Models Based on the Refined Process Structure Tree

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jing Fan

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The development of mobile workflow management systems (mWfMS leads to large number of business process models. In the meantime, the location restriction embedded in mWfMS may result in different process models for a single business process. In order to help users quickly locate the difference and rebuild the process model, detecting the difference between different process models is needed. Existing detection methods either provide a dissimilarity value to represent the difference or use predefined difference template to generate the result, which cannot reflect the entire composition of the difference. Hence, in this paper, we present a new approach to solve this problem. Firstly, we parse the process models to their corresponding refined process structure trees (PSTs, that is, decomposing a process model into a hierarchy of subprocess models. Then we design a method to convert the PST to its corresponding task based process structure tree (TPST. As a consequence, the problem of detecting difference between two process models is transformed to detect difference between their corresponding TPSTs. Finally, we obtain the difference between two TPSTs based on the divide and conquer strategy, where the difference is described by an edit script and we make the cost of the edit script close to minimum. The extensive experimental evaluation shows that our method can meet the real requirements in terms of precision and efficiency.

  12. Great Lakes rivermouths: a primer for managers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pebbles, Victoria; Larson, James; Seelbach, Paul; Pebbles, Victoria; Larson, James; Seelbach, Paul

    2013-01-01

    Between the North American Great Lakes and their tributaries are the places where the confluence of river and lake waters creates a distinct ecosystem: the rivermouth ecosystem. Human development has often centered around these rivermouths, in part, because they provide a rich array of ecosystem services. Not surprisingly, centuries of intense human activity have led to substantial pressures on, and alterations to, these ecosystems, often diminishing or degrading their ecological functions and associated ecological services. Many Great Lakes rivermouths are the focus of intense restoration efforts. For example, 36 of the active Great Lakes Areas of Concern (AOCs) are rivermouths or areas that include one or more rivermouths. Historically, research of rivermouth ecosystems has been piecemeal, focused on the Great Lakes proper or on the upper reaches of tributaries, with little direct study of the rivermouth itself. Researchers have been divided among disciplines, agencies and institutions; and they often work independently and use disparate venues to communicate their work. Management has also been fragmented with a focus on smaller, localized, sub-habitat units and socio-political or economic elements, rather than system-level consideration. This Primer presents the case for a more holistic approach to rivermouth science and management that can enable restoration of ecosystem services with multiple benefits to humans and the Great Lakes ecosystem. A conceptual model is presented with supporting text that describes the structures and processes common to all rivermouths, substantiating the case for treating these ecosystems as an identifiable class.1 Ecological services provided by rivermouths and changes in how humans value those services over time are illustrated through case studies of two Great Lakes rivermouths—the St. Louis River and the Maumee River. Specific ecosystem services are identified in italics throughout this Primer and follow definitions described

  13. Comparison of containment response by model difference between GOTHIC and CONTEMPT

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Byun, Choong Sup; Song, Dong Soo; Park, Young Chan

    2005-01-01

    GOTHIC and CONTEMPT are containment performance analysis codes, which are used in calculation of containment pressure and temperature for design basis accidents such as a loss of coolant accident(LOCA) and main steam line break(MSLB) accident. CONTEMPT models vapor and liquid phases, but GOTHIC has one more phase, drop phase. The containment responses between two codes are different each other during initial stage of accident due to this model difference. This paper evaluates the model difference between GOTHIC and CONTEMPT

  14. Improving Junior High Schools’ Critical Thinking Skills Based on Test Three Different Models of Learning

    OpenAIRE

    Nur Miftahul Fuad; Siti Zubaidah; Susriyati Mahanal; Endang Suarsini

    2017-01-01

    The aims of this study were (1) to find out the differences in critical thinking skills among students who were given three different learning models: differentiated science inquiry combined with mind map, differentiated science inquiry model, and conventional model, (2) to find out the differences of critical thinking skills among male and female students. This study is a quasi-experimental research with pretest-posttest nonequivalent control group design. The population in...

  15. Comparison of containment response by model difference between GOTHIC and CONTEMPT

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Byun, Choong Sup; Song, Dong Soo; Park, Young Chan [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Taejon (Korea, Republic of)

    2005-07-01

    GOTHIC and CONTEMPT are containment performance analysis codes, which are used in calculation of containment pressure and temperature for design basis accidents such as a loss of coolant accident(LOCA) and main steam line break(MSLB) accident. CONTEMPT models vapor and liquid phases, but GOTHIC has one more phase, drop phase. The containment responses between two codes are different each other during initial stage of accident due to this model difference. This paper evaluates the model difference between GOTHIC and CONTEMPT.

  16. Fluvial Transport Model from Spatial Distribution Analysis of Libyan Desert Glass Mass on the Great Sand Sea (Southwest Egypt: Clues to Primary Glass Distribution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nancy Jimenez-Martinez

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Libyan Desert Glass (LDG is a natural silica-rich melted rock found as pieces scattered over the sand and bedrock of the Western Desert of Egypt, northeast of the Gilf Kebir. In this work, a population mixture analysis serves to relate the present spatial distribution of LDG mass density with the Late Oligocene–Early Miocene fluvial dynamics in the Western Desert of Egypt. This was verified from a spatial distribution model that was predicted from the log-normal kriging method using the LDG–mass-dependent transformed variable, Y(x. Both low- and high-density normal populations (–9.2 < Y(x < –3.5 and –3.8 < Y(x < 2.1, respectively were identified. The low-density population was the result of an ordinary fluvial LDG transport/deposition sequence that was active from the time of the melting process, and which lasted until the end of activity of the Gilf River. The surface distribution of the high-density population allowed us to restrict the source area of the melting process. We demonstrate the importance of this geostatistical study in unveiling the probable location of the point where the melting of surficial material occurred and the role of the Gilf River in the configuration of the observed strewn field.

  17. Kansas environmental and resource study: A Great Plains model. [land use, image enhancement, winter wheat, agriculture, water resources, and pattern recognition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haralick, R. M.; Kanemasu, E. T.; Morain, S. A.; Yarger, H. L.; Ulaby, F. T.; Davis, J. C. (Principal Investigator); Bosley, R. J.; Williams, D. L.; Mccauley, J. R.; Mcnaughton, J. L.

    1973-01-01

    The author has identified the following significant results. Improvement in the land use classification accuracy of ERTS-1 MSS multi-images over Kansas can be made using two distances between neighboring grey tone N-tuples instead of one distance. Much more information is contained texturally than spectrally on the Kansas image. Ground truth measurements indicate that reflectance ratios of the 545 and 655 nm wavebands provide an index of plant development and possibly physiological stress. Preliminary analysis of MSS 4 and 5 channels substantiate the ground truth interpretation. Results of the land use mapping experiment indicate that ERTS-1 imagery has major potential in regionalization. The ways in which land is utilized within these regions may then be studied more effectively than if no adequate regionalization is available. A model for estimating wheat yield per acre has been applied to acreage estimates derived from ERTS-1 imagery to project the 1973 wheat yields for a ten county area in southwest Kansas. The results are within 3% of the preharvest estimates for the same area prepared by the USDA. Visual identification of winter wheat is readily achieved by using a temporal sequence of images. Identification can be improve by stratifying the project area into subregions having more or less homogeneous agricultural practices and crop mixes.

  18. Large-watershed flood simulation and forecasting based on different-resolution distributed hydrological model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, J.

    2017-12-01

    Large-watershed flood simulation and forecasting is very important for a distributed hydrological model in the application. There are some challenges including the model's spatial resolution effect, model performance and accuracy and so on. To cope with the challenge of the model's spatial resolution effect, different model resolution including 1000m*1000m, 600m*600m, 500m*500m, 400m*400m, 200m*200m were used to build the distributed hydrological model—Liuxihe model respectively. The purpose is to find which one is the best resolution for Liuxihe model in Large-watershed flood simulation and forecasting. This study sets up a physically based distributed hydrological model for flood forecasting of the Liujiang River basin in south China. Terrain data digital elevation model (DEM), soil type and land use type are downloaded from the website freely. The model parameters are optimized by using an improved Particle Swarm Optimization(PSO) algorithm; And parameter optimization could reduce the parameter uncertainty that exists for physically deriving model parameters. The different model resolution (200m*200m—1000m*1000m ) are proposed for modeling the Liujiang River basin flood with the Liuxihe model in this study. The best model's spatial resolution effect for flood simulation and forecasting is 200m*200m.And with the model's spatial resolution reduction, the model performance and accuracy also become worse and worse. When the model resolution is 1000m*1000m, the flood simulation and forecasting result is the worst, also the river channel divided based on this resolution is differs from the actual one. To keep the model with an acceptable performance, minimum model spatial resolution is needed. The suggested threshold model spatial resolution for modeling the Liujiang River basin flood is a 500m*500m grid cell, but the model spatial resolution with a 200m*200m grid cell is recommended in this study to keep the model at a best performance.

  19. How users experience great products

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ortiz Nicolas, J.C.; Aurisicchio, M.; Desmet, P.M.A.

    2013-01-01

    This study reports qualitative research about how users experience great products. Eighteen interviews were conducted in which participants were asked to bring along a ‘great’ product that they own. During the interviews participants explained why they consider a product great and how they

  20. What Caused the Great Depression?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caldwell, Jean; O'Driscoll, Timothy G.

    2007-01-01

    Economists and historians have struggled for almost 80 years to account for the American Great Depression, which began in 1929 and lasted until the early years of World War II. In this article, the authors discuss three major schools of thought on the causes of the Great Depression and the long failure of the American economy to return to full…

  1. A Bayesian method to rank different model forecasts of the same volcanic ash cloud: Chapter 24

    Science.gov (United States)

    Denlinger, Roger P.; Webley, P.; Mastin, Larry G.; Schwaiger, Hans F.

    2012-01-01

    Volcanic eruptions often spew fine ash high into the atmosphere, where it is carried downwind, forming long ash clouds that disrupt air traffic and pose a hazard to air travel. To mitigate such hazards, the community studying ash hazards must assess risk of ash ingestion for any flight path and provide robust and accurate forecasts of volcanic ash dispersal. We provide a quantitative and objective method to evaluate the efficacy of ash dispersal estimates from different models, using Bayes theorem to assess the predictions that each model makes about ash dispersal. We incorporate model and measurement uncertainty and produce a posterior probability for model input parameters. The integral of the posterior over all possible combinations of model inputs determines the evidence for each model and is used to compare models. We compare two different types of transport models, an Eulerian model (Ash3d) and a Langrangian model (PUFF), as applied to the 2010 eruptions of Eyjafjallajökull volcano in Iceland. The evidence for each model benefits from common physical characteristics of ash dispersal from an eruption column and provides a measure of how well each model forecasts cloud transport. Given the complexity of the wind fields, we find that the differences between these models depend upon the differences in the way the models disperse ash into the wind from the source plume. With continued observation, the accuracy of the estimates made by each model increases, increasing the efficacy of each model’s ability to simulate ash dispersal.

  2. Different atmospheric parameters influence on spectral UV radiation (measurements and modelling)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chubarova, N.Y. [Moscow State Univ. (Russian Federation). Meteorological Observatory; Krotkov, N.A. [Maryland Univ., MD (United States). JCESS/Meteorology Dept.; Geogdzhaev, I.V.; Bushnev, S.V.; Kondranin, T.V. [SUMGF/MIPT, Dolgoprudny (Russian Federation); Khattatov, V.U. [Central Aerological Observatory, Dolgoprudny (Russian Federation)

    1995-12-31

    The ultraviolet (UV) radiation plays a vital role in the biophysical processes despite its small portion in the total solar flux. UV radiation is subject to large variations at the Earth surface depending greatly on solar elevation, ozone and cloud amount, aerosols and surface albedo. The analysis of atmospheric parameters influence is based on the spectral archive data of three spectral instruments: NSF spectroradiometer (Barrow network) (NSF Polar Programs UV Spectroradiometer Network 1991-1992,1992), spectrophotometer (SUVS-M) of Central Aerological Observatory CAO, spectroradiometer of Meteorological Observatory of the Moscow State University (MO MSU) and model simulations based on delta-Eddington approximation

  3. THE THIRD GRAVITATIONAL LENSING ACCURACY TESTING (GREAT3) CHALLENGE HANDBOOK

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mandelbaum, Rachel; Kannawadi, Arun; Simet, Melanie; Rowe, Barnaby; Kacprzak, Tomasz; Bosch, James; Miyatake, Hironao; Chang, Chihway; Gill, Mandeep; Courbin, Frederic; Jarvis, Mike; Armstrong, Bob; Lackner, Claire; Leauthaud, Alexie; Nakajima, Reiko; Rhodes, Jason; Zuntz, Joe; Bridle, Sarah; Coupon, Jean; Dietrich, Jörg P.

    2014-01-01

    The GRavitational lEnsing Accuracy Testing 3 (GREAT3) challenge is the third in a series of image analysis challenges, with a goal of testing and facilitating the development of methods for analyzing astronomical images that will be used to measure weak gravitational lensing. This measurement requires extremely precise estimation of very small galaxy shape distortions, in the presence of far larger intrinsic galaxy shapes and distortions due to the blurring kernel caused by the atmosphere, telescope optics, and instrumental effects. The GREAT3 challenge is posed to the astronomy, machine learning, and statistics communities, and includes tests of three specific effects that are of immediate relevance to upcoming weak lensing surveys, two of which have never been tested in a community challenge before. These effects include many novel aspects including realistically complex galaxy models based on high-resolution imaging from space; a spatially varying, physically motivated blurring kernel; and a combination of multiple different exposures. To facilitate entry by people new to the field, and for use as a diagnostic tool, the simulation software for the challenge is publicly available, though the exact parameters used for the challenge are blinded. Sample scripts to analyze the challenge data using existing methods will also be provided. See http://great3challenge.info and http://great3.projects.phys.ucl.ac.uk/leaderboard/ for more information

  4. Effect of different wavelengths and dyes on Candida albicans: In vivo study using Galleria mellonella as an experimental model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merigo, Elisabetta; Conti, Stefania; Ciociola, Tecla; Fornaini, Carlo; Polonelli, Luciano; Lagori, Giuseppe; Manfredi, Maddalena; Vescovi, Paolo

    2017-06-01

    Studies on photodynamic inactivation against microorganisms had a great development in recent years. The aim of this work was to test the application of different laser wavelengths with or without different photosensitizing dyes on Candida albicans cells in vitro and in photodynamic therapy protocols in vivo in larvae of Galleria mellonella. Laser application was realized on C. albicans cells suspended in saline solution or cultured on solid medium for the in vitro study, and in a model of G. mellonella candidal infection for the in vivo study. Three wavelengths (650, 405, and 532nm) were used in continuous mode with different values of applied fluences: 10, 20 and 30J/cm 2 for the in vitro study and 10J/cm 2 for the in vivo study, without and with photosensitizing dyes. No growth inhibition was obtained on yeast cells in saline solution without photosensitizers. The maximum inhibition of growth (100%) was obtained with 405nm diode laser and curcumin at any used fluence. No growth inhibition was observed for yeast cells cultured on solid medium after laser application without dyes. An inhibition was observed after laser application when curcumin and erythrosine were added to the medium. The survival curves of G. mellonella larvae infected with C. albicans with or without the different dyes and after laser application showed a statistically significant difference (palbicans and the potential of photodynamic therapy for the treatment of candidal infections. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  5. Numerical simulation of humidification and heating during inspiration in nose models with three different located septal perforations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindemann, Jörg; Reichert, Michael; Kröger, Ralf; Schuler, Patrick; Hoffmann, Thomas; Sommer, Fabian

    2016-07-01

    Nasal septum perforations (SP) are characterized by nasal obstruction, bleeding and crusting. The disturbed heating and humidification of the inhaled air are important factors, which cause these symptoms due to a disturbed airflow. Numerical simulations offer a great potential to avoid these limitations and to provide valid data. The aim of the study was to simulate the humidification and heating of the inhaled air in digital nose models with three different SPs and without SP. Four realistic bilateral nose models based on a multi-slice CT scan were created. The SP were located anterior caudal, anterior cranial and posterior caudal. One model was without SP. A numerical simulation was performed. Boundary conditions were based on previous in vivo measurements. Heating and humidification of the inhaled air were displayed, analyzed in each model and compared to each other. Anterior caudal SPs cause a disturbed decrease of temperature and humidity of the inhaled air. The reduced temperature and humidity values can still be shown in the posterior nose. The anterior cranial and the posterior caudal perforation have only a minor influence on heating and humidification. A reduced humidification and heating of the air can be shown by numerical simulations due to SP depending on their localization. The anterior caudal SP representing a typical localization after previous surgery has the biggest influence on heating and humidification. The results explain the typical symptoms such as crusting by drying-out the nasal mucosa. The size and the localization of the SP are essential for the symptoms.

  6. Integrating Climate Change into Great Lakes Protection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hedman, S.

    2012-12-01

    Agreements. EPA has provided GLRI funding for a diverse suite of climate change-related projects including Great Lakes climate change research and modeling; adaptation plan development and implementation; ecosystem vulnerability assessments; outreach and education programs; habitat restoration and protection projects that will increase ecosystem resilience; and other projects that address climate change impacts. This presentation will discuss how the GLRI is helping to improve the climate change science needed to support the Action Plan. It will further describe how the GLRI is helping coordinate climate change efforts among Great Lakes states, tribes, Federal agencies, and other stakeholders. Finally, it will discuss how the GLRI is facilitating adaptation planning by our Great Lakes partners. The draft Lake Superior Ecosystem Climate Change Adaptation Plan serves as a case study for an integrated, collaborative, and coordinated climate change effort.

  7. An assessment of atmospheric mercury in the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ model at an urban site and a rural site in the Great Lakes Region of North America

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Holloway

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Quantitative analysis of three atmospheric mercury species – gaseous elemental mercury (Hg0, reactive gaseous mercury (RGHg and particulate mercury (PHg – has been limited to date by lack of ambient measurement data as well as by uncertainties in numerical models and emission inventories. This study employs the Community Multiscale Air Quality Model version 4.6 with mercury chemistry (CMAQ-Hg, to examine how local emissions, meteorology, atmospheric chemistry, and deposition affect mercury concentration and deposition the Great Lakes Region (GLR, and two sites in Wisconsin in particular: the rural Devil's Lake site and the urban Milwaukee site. Ambient mercury exhibits significant biases at both sites. Hg0 is too low in CMAQ-Hg, with the model showing a 6% low bias at the rural site and 36% low bias at the urban site. Reactive mercury (RHg = RGHg + PHg is over-predicted by the model, with annual average biases >250%. Performance metrics for RHg are much worse than for mercury wet deposition, ozone (O3, nitrogen dioxide (NO2, or sulfur dioxide (SO2. Sensitivity simulations to isolate background inflow from regional emissions suggests that oxidation of imported Hg0 dominates model estimates of RHg at the rural study site (91% of base case value, and contributes 55% to the RHg at the urban site (local emissions contribute 45%.

  8. Exploring Sex Differences in Science Enrolment Intentions: An Application of the General Model of Academic Choice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnes, Geoffrey; McInerney, Dennis M.; Marsh, Herbert W.

    2005-01-01

    In many countries there remain substantial sex differences in enrolments in elective science courses, despite concerted efforts in recent years to alleviate them. This paper explores the reasons for these differences by comparing models of male and female enrolment intentions in elective courses in biology, chemistry and physics. The models are…

  9. Definition of zones with different levels of productivity within an agricultural field using fuzzy modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zoning of agricultural fields is an important task for utilization of precision farming technology. One method for the definition of zones with different levels of productivity is based on fuzzy indicator model. Fuzzy indicator model for identification of zones with different levels of productivit...

  10. The Onion Model: Myth or Reality in the Field of Individual Differences Psychology?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cools, Eva; Bellens, Kim

    2012-01-01

    To bring order in concepts related to individual learner differences, Curry (1983) designed the three-layered onion model. As this model provides an interesting way to distinguish related concepts--such as cognitive styles and approaches to studying--on the basis of their stability in learning situations, ample studies build further on this model.…

  11. Confronting different models of community structure to species-abundance data : a Bayesian model comparison

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Etienne, RS; Olff, H

    Species abundances are undoubtedly the most widely available macroecological data, but can we use them to distinguish among several models of community structure? Here we present a Bayesian analysis of species-abundance data that yields a full joint probability distribution of each model's

  12. Confronting different models of community structure to species-abundance data: a Bayesian model comparison

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Etienne, R.S.; Olff, H.

    2005-01-01

    Species abundances are undoubtedly the most widely available macroecological data, but can we use them to distinguish among several models of community structure? Here we present a Bayesian analysis of species-abundance data that yields a full joint probability distribution of each model's

  13. What Caused the Great Recession?

    OpenAIRE

    Homburg, Stefan

    2014-01-01

    This paper examines five possible explanations for the Great Recession of 2008 and 2009, using data for the United States and the eurozone. Of these five hypotheses, four are not supported by the data, while the fifth appears reasonable.

  14. Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory

    Data.gov (United States)

    Federal Laboratory Consortium — NOAA-GLERL and its partners conduct innovative research on the dynamic environments and ecosystems of the Great Lakes and coastal regions to provide information for...

  15. Energy and water in the Great Lakes.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tidwell, Vincent Carroll

    2011-11-01

    The nexus between thermoelectric power production and water use is not uniform across the U.S., but rather differs according to regional physiography, demography, power plant fleet composition, and the transmission network. That is, in some regions water demand for thermoelectric production is relatively small while in other regions it represents the dominate use. The later is the case for the Great Lakes region, which has important implications for the water resources and aquatic ecology of the Great Lakes watershed. This is today, but what about the future? Projected demographic trends, shifting lifestyles, and economic growth coupled with the threat of global climate change and mounting pressure for greater U.S. energy security could have profound effects on the region's energy future. Planning for such an uncertain future is further complicated by the fact that energy and environmental planning and regulatory decisionmaking is largely bifurcated in the region, with environmental and water resource concerns generally taken into account after new energy facilities and technologies have been proposed, or practices are already in place. Based on these confounding needs, the objective of this effort is to develop Great Lakes-specific methods and tools to integrate energy and water resource planning and thereby support the dual goals of smarter energy planning and development, and protection of Great Lakes water resources. Guiding policies for this planning are the Great Lakes and St. Lawrence River Basin Water Resources Compact and the Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement. The desired outcome of integrated energy-water-aquatic resource planning is a more sustainable regional energy mix for the Great Lakes basin ecosystem.

  16. The Sixth Great Mass Extinction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wagler, Ron

    2012-01-01

    Five past great mass extinctions have occurred during Earth's history. Humanity is currently in the midst of a sixth, human-induced great mass extinction of plant and animal life (e.g., Alroy 2008; Jackson 2008; Lewis 2006; McDaniel and Borton 2002; Rockstrom et al. 2009; Rohr et al. 2008; Steffen, Crutzen, and McNeill 2007; Thomas et al. 2004;…

  17. COMODI: an ontology to characterise differences in versions of computational models in biology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scharm, Martin; Waltemath, Dagmar; Mendes, Pedro; Wolkenhauer, Olaf

    2016-07-11

    Open model repositories provide ready-to-reuse computational models of biological systems. Models within those repositories evolve over time, leading to different model versions. Taken together, the underlying changes reflect a model's provenance and thus can give valuable insights into the studied biology. Currently, however, changes cannot be semantically interpreted. To improve this situation, we developed an ontology of terms describing changes in models. The ontology can be used by scientists and within software to characterise model updates at the level of single changes. When studying or reusing a model, these annotations help with determining the relevance of a change in a given context. We manually studied changes in selected models from BioModels and the Physiome Model Repository. Using the BiVeS tool for difference detection, we then performed an automatic analysis of changes in all models published in these repositories. The resulting set of concepts led us to define candidate terms for the ontology. In a final step, we aggregated and classified these terms and built the first version of the ontology. We present COMODI, an ontology needed because COmputational MOdels DIffer. It empowers users and software to describe changes in a model on the semantic level. COMODI also enables software to implement user-specific filter options for the display of model changes. Finally, COMODI is a step towards predicting how a change in a model influences the simulation results. COMODI, coupled with our algorithm for difference detection, ensures the transparency of a model's evolution, and it enhances the traceability of updates and error corrections. COMODI is encoded in OWL. It is openly available at http://comodi.sems.uni-rostock.de/ .

  18. On the sub-model errors of a generalized one-way coupling scheme for linking models at different scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeng, Jicai; Zha, Yuanyuan; Zhang, Yonggen; Shi, Liangsheng; Zhu, Yan; Yang, Jinzhong

    2017-11-01

    Multi-scale modeling of the localized groundwater flow problems in a large-scale aquifer has been extensively investigated under the context of cost-benefit controversy. An alternative is to couple the parent and child models with different spatial and temporal scales, which may result in non-trivial sub-model errors in the local areas of interest. Basically, such errors in the child models originate from the deficiency in the coupling methods, as well as from the inadequacy in the spatial and temporal discretizations of the parent and child models. In this study, we investigate the sub-model errors within a generalized one-way coupling scheme given its numerical stability and efficiency, which enables more flexibility in choosing sub-models. To couple the models at different scales, the head solution at parent scale is delivered downward onto the child boundary nodes by means of the spatial and temporal head interpolation approaches. The efficiency of the coupling model is improved either by refining the grid or time step size in the parent and child models, or by carefully locating the sub-model boundary nodes. The temporal truncation errors in the sub-models can be significantly reduced by the adaptive local time-stepping scheme. The generalized one-way coupling scheme is promising to handle the multi-scale groundwater flow problems with complex stresses and heterogeneity.

  19. Application of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT Model on a small tropical island (Great River Watershed, Jamaica as a tool in Integrated Watershed and Coastal Zone Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Orville P. Grey

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available The Great River Watershed, located in north-west Jamaica, is critical for development, particularly for housing, tourism, agriculture, and mining. It is a source of sediment and nutrient loading to the coastal environment including the Montego Bay Marine Park. We produced a modeling framework using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT and GIS. The calculated model performance statistics for high flow discharge yielded a Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE value of 0.68 and a R² value of 0.70 suggesting good measured and simulated (calibrated discharge correlation. Calibration and validation results for streamflow were similar to the observed streamflows. For the dry season the simulated urban landuse scenario predicted an increase in surface runoff in excess of 150%. During the wet season it is predicted to range from 98 to 234% presenting a significant risk of flooding, erosion and other environmental issues. The model should be used for the remaining 25 watersheds in Jamaica and elsewhere in the Caribbean. The models suggests that projected landuse changes will have serious impacts on available water (streamflow, stream health, potable water treatment, flooding and sensitive coastal ecosystems.

  20. Developing an ANN model to simulate ASTM C1012-95 test considering different cement types and different pozzolanic additives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O.A. Hodhod

    2013-04-01

    In this research a study is presented to build a model by ANN equivalent to ASTM C1012-95. The input parameter was obtained from 16 different mortars according to ASTM C1012-95. Plain Portland cement mortars, mortars with cement combined with fly ash (FA, and mortars with cement combined with slag (GGBFS were tested by using ASTM C1012-95. Four cements, two ratio of FA, and one GGBFS were obtained from the literature. ASTM C1012-95 modeling techniques can help us understand the influence of aggressive environments on the concrete performance more readily, faster, and accurately. Such an understanding improves the decision making process in every stage of construction and maintenance and will help in better administration of resources.

  1. Difference schemes for numerical solutions of lagging models of heat conduction

    OpenAIRE

    Cabrera Sánchez, Jesús; Castro López, María Ángeles; Rodríguez Mateo, Francisco; Martín Alustiza, José Antonio

    2013-01-01

    Non-Fourier models of heat conduction are increasingly being considered in the modeling of microscale heat transfer in engineering and biomedical heat transfer problems. The dual-phase-lagging model, incorporating time lags in the heat flux and the temperature gradient, and some of its particular cases and approximations, result in heat conduction modeling equations in the form of delayed or hyperbolic partial differential equations. In this work, the application of difference schemes for the...

  2. Modeling individual differences in text reading fluency: a different pattern of predictors for typically developing and dyslexic readers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pierluigi eZoccolotti

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available This study was aimed at predicting individual differences in text reading fluency. The basic proposal included two factors, i.e., the ability to decode letter strings (measured by discrete pseudo-word reading and integration of the various sub-components involved in reading (measured by Rapid Automatized Naming, RAN. Subsequently, a third factor was added to the model, i.e., naming of discrete digits. In order to use homogeneous measures, all contributing variables considered the entire processing of the item, including pronunciation time. The model, which was based on commonality analysis, was applied to data from a group of 43 typically developing readers (11- to 13-year-olds and a group of 25 chronologically matched dyslexic children. In typically developing readers, both orthographic decoding and integration of reading sub-components contributed significantly to the overall prediction of text reading fluency. The model prediction was higher (from ca. 37% to 52% of the explained variance when we included the naming of discrete digits variable, which had a suppressive effect on pseudo-word reading. In the dyslexic readers, the variance explained by the two-factor model was high (69% and did not change when the third factor was added. The lack of a suppression effect was likely due to the prominent individual differences in poor orthographic decoding of the dyslexic children. Analyses on data from both groups of children were replicated by using patches of colours as stimuli (both in the RAN task and in the discrete naming task obtaining similar results. We conclude that it is possible to predict much of the variance in text-reading fluency using basic processes, such as orthographic decoding and integration of reading sub-components, even without taking into consideration higher-order linguistic factors such as lexical, semantic and contextual abilities. The approach validity of using proximal vs distal causes to predict reading fluency is

  3. Modelling of pneumatic muscle actuator using Hill's model with different approximations of static characteristics of artificial muscle

    OpenAIRE

    Piteľ Ján; Tóthová Mária

    2016-01-01

    For modelling and simulation of pneumatic muscle actuators the mathematical dependence of the muscle force on the muscle contraction at different pressures in the muscles is necessary to know. For this purpose the static characteristics of the pneumatic artificial muscle type FESTO MAS-20-250N used in the experiments were approximated. In the paper there are shown some simulation results of the pneumatic muscle actuator dynamics using modified Hill's muscle model, in which four different appr...

  4. A Comparison of Different Engineering Models for Computation of Lightning Magnetic Field of Negative First Strokes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Javor

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available A comparison of different engineering models results for a lightning magnetic field of negative first strokes is presented in this paper. A new function for representing double-peaked channel-base current is used for lightning stroke modeling. This function includes the initial and subsidiary peak in a current waveform. For experimentally measured currents, a magnetic field is calculated for the three engineering models: transmission line (TL model, TL model with linear decay (MTLL, and TL model with exponential decay (MTLE.

  5. Computing the Absorption and Emission Spectra of 5-Methylcytidine in Different Solvents: A Test-Case for Different Solvation Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martínez-Fernández, L; Pepino, A J; Segarra-Martí, J; Banyasz, A; Garavelli, M; Improta, R

    2016-09-13

    The optical spectra of 5-methylcytidine in three different solvents (tetrahydrofuran, acetonitrile, and water) is measured, showing that both the absorption and the emission maximum in water are significantly blue-shifted (0.08 eV). The absorption spectra are simulated based on CAM-B3LYP/TD-DFT calculations but including solvent effects with three different approaches: (i) a hybrid implicit/explicit full quantum mechanical approach, (ii) a mixed QM/MM static approach, and (iii) a QM/MM method exploiting the structures issuing from molecular dynamics classical simulations. Ab-initio Molecular dynamics simulations based on CAM-B3LYP functionals have also been performed. The adopted approaches all reproduce the main features of the experimental spectra, giving insights on the chemical-physical effects responsible for the solvent shifts in the spectra of 5-methylcytidine and providing the basis for discussing advantages and limitations of the adopted solvation models.

  6. Modelling with Difference Equations Supported by GeoGebra: Exploring the Kepler Problem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kovacs, Zoltan

    2010-01-01

    The use of difference and differential equations in the modelling is a topic usually studied by advanced students in mathematics. However difference and differential equations appear in the school curriculum in many direct or hidden ways. Difference equations first enter in the curriculum when studying arithmetic sequences. Moreover Newtonian…

  7. Using Evolving Fuzzy Classifiers to Classify Consumers with Different Model Architectures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Rong; Chai, Chunlai; Zhou, Xiaowei

    This study introduces two alternative methods for evolving fuzzy classifiers (eClass and FLEXFIS-CLass) in order to classify consumers into different categories for directing marketing purposes. We describe in detail the learning mechanisms of these classifiers and different types of model architectures including single model architectures (SM) and multi-model architectures (MM). Note that single-model architectures have different consequents: singletons corresponding to class labels, linear consequents regressing over the features and eClass MIMO which is applicable in multi-class classification. Furthermore, we place emphasis on classification accuracy and effectiveness of these approaches and compare the proposed classifiers with well-established ones, such as CART and k-NN, and also popular SVM method. The result indicates that they compare favorably with others in term of precision. With these different model architectures, managers can use the introduced approaches to classify consumers to their categories and determine the most profitable decisions.

  8. A Cross-Classified CFA-MTMM Model for Structurally Different and Nonindependent Interchangeable Methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koch, Tobias; Schultze, Martin; Jeon, Minjeong; Nussbeck, Fridtjof W; Praetorius, Anna-Katharina; Eid, Michael

    2016-01-01

    Multirater (multimethod, multisource) studies are increasingly applied in psychology. Eid and colleagues (2008) proposed a multilevel confirmatory factor model for multitrait-multimethod (MTMM) data combining structurally different and multiple independent interchangeable methods (raters). In many studies, however, different interchangeable raters (e.g., peers, subordinates) are asked to rate different targets (students, supervisors), leading to violations of the independence assumption and to cross-classified data structures. In the present work, we extend the ML-CFA-MTMM model by Eid and colleagues (2008) to cross-classified multirater designs. The new C4 model (Cross-Classified CTC[M-1] Combination of Methods) accounts for nonindependent interchangeable raters and enables researchers to explicitly model the interaction between targets and raters as a latent variable. Using a real data application, it is shown how credibility intervals of model parameters and different variance components can be obtained using Bayesian estimation techniques.

  9. Comparing finite elements and finite differences for developing diffusive models of glioma growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roniotis, Alexandros; Marias, Kostas; Sakkalis, Vangelis; Stamatakos, Georgios; Zervakis, Michalis

    2010-01-01

    Glioma is the most aggressive type of brain tumor. Several mathematical models have been developed during the last two decades, towards simulating the mechanisms that govern the development of glioma. The most common models use the diffusion-reaction equation (DRE) for simulating the spatiotemporal variation of tumor cell concentration. The proposed diffusive models have mainly used finite differences (FDs) or finite elements (FEs) for the approximation of the solution of the partial differential DRE. This paper presents experimental results on the comparison of the FEs and FDs, especially focused on the glioma model case. It is studied how the different meshes of brain can affect computational consistency, simulation time and efficiency of the model. The experiments have been studied on a test case, for which there is a known algebraic expression of the solution. Thus, it is possible to calculate the error that the different models yield.

  10. In silico screening of estrogen-like chemicals based on different nonlinear classification models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Huanxiang; Papa, Ester; Walker, John D; Gramatica, Paola

    2007-07-01

    Increasing concern is being shown by the scientific community, government regulators, and the public about endocrine-disrupting chemicals that are adversely affecting human and wildlife health through a variety of mechanisms. There is a great need for an effective means of rapidly assessing endocrine-disrupting activity, especially estrogen-simulating activity, because of the large number of such chemicals in the environment. In this study, quantitative structure activity relationship (QSAR) models were developed to quickly and effectively identify possible estrogen-like chemicals based on 232 structurally-diverse chemicals (training set) by using several nonlinear classification methodologies (least-square support vector machine (LS-SVM), counter-propagation artificial neural network (CP-ANN), and k nearest neighbour (kNN)) based on molecular structural descriptors. The models were externally validated by 87 chemicals (prediction set) not included in the training set. All three methods can give satisfactory prediction results both for training and prediction sets, and the most accurate model was obtained by the LS-SVM approach through the comparison of performance. In addition, our model was also applied to about 58,000 discrete organic chemicals; about 76% were predicted not to bind to Estrogen Receptor. The obtained results indicate that the proposed QSAR models are robust, widely applicable and could provide a feasible and practical tool for the rapid screening of potential estrogens.

  11. Large Differences in Terrestrial Vegetation Production Derived from Satellite-Based Light Use Efficiency Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wenwen Cai

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Terrestrial gross primary production (GPP is the largest global CO2 flux and determines other ecosystem carbon cycle variables. Light use efficiency (LUE models may have the most potential to adequately address the spatial and temporal dynamics of GPP, but recent studies have shown large model differences in GPP simulations. In this study, we investigated the GPP differences in the spatial and temporal patterns derived from seven widely used LUE models at the global scale. The result shows that the global annual GPP estimates over the period 2000–2010 varied from 95.10 to 139.71 Pg C∙yr−1 among models. The spatial and temporal variation of global GPP differs substantially between models, due to different model structures and dominant environmental drivers. In almost all models, water availability dominates the interannual variability of GPP over large vegetated areas. Solar radiation and air temperature are not the primary controlling factors for interannual variability of global GPP estimates for most models. The disagreement among the current LUE models highlights the need for further model improvement to quantify the global carbon cycle.

  12. Great Basin geologic framework and uranium favorability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Larson, L.T.; Beal, L.H.

    1978-01-01

    Work on this report has been done by a team of seven investigators assisted over the project span by twenty-three undergraduate and graduate students from May 18, 1976 to August 19, 1977. The report is presented in one volume of text, one volume or Folio of Maps, and two volumes of bibliography. The bibliography contains approximately 5300 references on geologic subjects pertinent to the search for uranium in the Great Basin. Volume I of the bibliography lists articles by author alphabetically and Volume II cross-indexes these articles by location and key word. Chapters I through IV of the Text volume and accompanying Folio Map Sets 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5, discuss the relationship of uranium to rock and structural environments which dominate the Great Basin. Chapter 5 and Map Sets 6 and 7 provide a geochemical association/metallogenic grouping of mineral occurrences in the Great Basin along with information on rock types hosting uranium. Chapter VI summarizes the results of a court house claim record search for 'new' claiming areas for uranium, and Chapter VII along with Folio Map Set 8 gives all published geochronological data available through April 1, 1977 on rocks of the Great Basin. Chapter VIII provides an introduction to a computer analysis of characteristics of certain major uranium deposits in crystalline rocks (worldwide) and is offered as a suggestion of what might be done with uranium in all geologic environments. We believe such analysis will assist materially in constructing exploration models. Chapter IX summarizes criteria used and conclusions reached as to the favorability of uranium environments which we believe to exist in the Great Basin and concludes with recommendations for both exploration and future research. A general summary conclusion is that there are several geologic environments within the Great Basin which have considerable potential and that few, if any, have been sufficiently tested

  13. Formal Uncertainty and Dispersion of Single and Double Difference Models for GNSS-Based Attitude Determination.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Wen; Yu, Chao; Dong, Danan; Cai, Miaomiao; Zhou, Feng; Wang, Zhiren; Zhang, Lei; Zheng, Zhengqi

    2017-02-20

    With multi-antenna synchronized global navigation satellite system (GNSS) receivers, the single difference (SD) between two antennas is able to eliminate both satellite and receiver clock error, thus it becomes necessary to reconsider the equivalency problem between the SD and double difference (DD) models. In this paper, we quantitatively compared the formal uncertainties and dispersions between multiple SD models and the DD model, and also carried out static and kinematic short baseline experiments. The theoretical and experimental results show that under a non-common clock scheme the SD and DD model are equivalent. Under a common clock scheme, if we estimate stochastic uncalibrated phase delay (UPD) parameters every epoch, this SD model is still equivalent to the DD model, but if we estimate only one UPD parameter for all epochs or take it as a known constant, the SD (here called SD2) and DD models are no longer equivalent. For the vertical component of baseline solutions, the formal uncertainties of the SD2 model are two times smaller than those of the DD model, and the dispersions of the SD2 model are even more than twice smaller than those of the DD model. In addition, to obtain baseline solutions, the SD2 model requires a minimum of three satellites, while the DD model requires a minimum of four satellites, which makes the SD2 more advantageous in attitude determination under sheltered environments.

  14. Generic model for calculating carbon footprint of milk using four different LCA modelling approaches

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dalgaard, Randi; Schmidt, Jannick Højrup; Flysjö, Anna

    2014-01-01

    is LCA. The model includes switches that enables for, within the same scope, transforming the results to comply with 1) consequential LCA, 2) allocation/average modelling (or ‘attributional LCA’), 3) PAS 2050 and 4) The International Dairy Federations (IDF) guide to standard life cycle assessment......The aim of the study is to develop a tool, which can be used for calculation of carbon footprint (using a life cycle assessment (LCA) approach) of milk both at a farm level and at a national level. The functional unit is ‘1 kg energy corrected milk (ECM) at farm gate’ and the applied methodology...

  15. State Government Revenue Recovery from the Great Recession

    OpenAIRE

    James Alm; David L. Sjoquist

    2014-01-01

    The "Great Recession" lasted from December 2007 to June 2009, and it wreaked havoc on the revenues of state (and local) governments. While the U.S. economy has improved since the end of the Great Recession, state government revenues have in most cases still not completely recovered. We use various indicators to measure how different states have -- or have not -- recovered in the aftermath of the Great Recession, and we also attempt to explain why these different patterns of recovery have emer...

  16. Uncertainty of SWAT model at different DEM resolutions in a large mountainous watershed.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Peipei; Liu, Ruimin; Bao, Yimeng; Wang, Jiawei; Yu, Wenwen; Shen, Zhenyao

    2014-04-15

    The objective of this study was to enhance understanding of the sensitivity of the SWAT model to the resolutions of Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) based on the analysis of multiple evaluation indicators. The Xiangxi River, a large tributary of Three Gorges Reservoir in China, was selected as the study area. A range of 17 DEM spatial resolutions, from 30 to 1000 m, was examined, and the annual and monthly model outputs based on each resolution were compared. The following results were obtained: (i) sediment yield was greatly affected by DEM resolution; (ii) the prediction of dissolved oxygen load was significantly affected by DEM resolutions coarser than 500 m; (iii) Total Nitrogen (TN) load was not greatly affected by the DEM resolution; (iv) Nitrate Nitrogen (NO₃-N) and Total Phosphorus (TP) loads were slightly affected by the DEM resolution; and (v) flow and Ammonia Nitrogen (NH₄-N) load were essentially unaffected by the DEM resolution. The flow and dissolved oxygen load decreased more significantly in the dry season than in the wet and normal seasons. Excluding flow and dissolved oxygen, the uncertainties of the other Hydrology/Non-point Source (H/NPS) pollution indicators were greater in the wet season than in the dry and normal seasons. Considering the temporal distribution uncertainties, the optimal DEM resolutions for flow was 30-200 m, for sediment and TP was 30-100 m, for dissolved oxygen and NO₃-N was 30-300 m, for NH₄-N was 30 to 70 m and for TN was 30-150 m. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. A Roadmap for Generating Semantically Enriched Building Models According to CityGML Model via Two Different Methodologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Floros, G.; Solou, D.; Pispidikis, I.; Dimopoulou, E.

    2016-10-01

    The methodologies of 3D modeling techniques have increasingly increased due to the rapid advances of new technologies. Nowadays, the focus of 3D modeling software is focused, not only to the finest visualization of the models, but also in their semantic features during the modeling procedure. As a result, the models thus generated are both realistic and semantically enriched. Additionally, various extensions of modeling software allow for the immediate conversion of the model's format, via semi-automatic procedures with respect to the user's scope. The aim of this paper is to investigate the generation of a semantically enriched Citygml building model via two different methodologies. The first methodology includes the modeling in Trimble SketchUp and the transformation in FME Desktop Manager, while the second methodology includes the model's generation in CityEngine and its transformation in the CityGML format via the 3DCitiesProject extension for ArcGIS. Finally, the two aforesaid methodologies are being compared and specific characteristics are evaluated, in order to infer the methodology that is best applied depending on the different projects' purposes.

  18. Hospital Capital Investment During the Great Recession

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Sung

    2017-01-01

    Hospital capital investment is important for acquiring and maintaining technology and equipment needed to provide health care. Reduction in capital investment by a hospital has negative implications for patient outcomes. Most hospitals rely on debt and internal cash flow to fund capital investment. The great recession may have made it difficult for hospitals to borrow, thus reducing their capital investment. I investigated the impact of the great recession on capital investment made by California hospitals. Modeling how hospital capital investment may have been liquidity constrained during the recession is a novel contribution to the literature. I estimated the model with California Office of Statewide Health Planning and Development data and system generalized method of moments. Findings suggest that not-for-profit and public hospitals were liquidity constrained during the recession. Comparing the changes in hospital capital investment between 2006 and 2009 showed that hospitals used cash flow to increase capital investment by $2.45 million, other things equal. PMID:28617202

  19. Hospital Capital Investment During the Great Recession.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Sung

    2017-01-01

    Hospital capital investment is important for acquiring and maintaining technology and equipment needed to provide health care. Reduction in capital investment by a hospital has negative implications for patient outcomes. Most hospitals rely on debt and internal cash flow to fund capital investment. The great recession may have made it difficult for hospitals to borrow, thus reducing their capital investment. I investigated the impact of the great recession on capital investment made by California hospitals. Modeling how hospital capital investment may have been liquidity constrained during the recession is a novel contribution to the literature. I estimated the model with California Office of Statewide Health Planning and Development data and system generalized method of moments. Findings suggest that not-for-profit and public hospitals were liquidity constrained during the recession. Comparing the changes in hospital capital investment between 2006 and 2009 showed that hospitals used cash flow to increase capital investment by $2.45 million, other things equal.

  20. Using maximum topology matching to explore differences in species distribution models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poco, Jorge; Doraiswamy, Harish; Talbert, Marian; Morisette, Jeffrey; Silva, Claudio

    2015-01-01

    Species distribution models (SDM) are used to help understand what drives the distribution of various plant and animal species. These models are typically high dimensional scalar functions, where the dimensions of the domain correspond to predictor variables of the model algorithm. Understanding and exploring the differences between models help ecologists understand areas where their data or understanding of the system is incomplete and will help guide further investigation in these regions. These differences can also indicate an important source of model to model uncertainty. However, it is cumbersome and often impractical to perform this analysis using existing tools, which allows for manual exploration of the models usually as 1-dimensional curves. In this paper, we propose a topology-based framework to help ecologists explore the differences in various SDMs directly in the high dimensional domain. In order to accomplish this, we introduce the concept of maximum topology matching that computes a locality-aware correspondence between similar extrema of two scalar functions. The matching is then used to compute the similarity between two functions. We also design a visualization interface that allows ecologists to explore SDMs using their topological features and to study the differences between pairs of models found using maximum topological matching. We demonstrate the utility of the proposed framework through several use cases using different data sets and report the feedback obtained from ecologists.

  1. A Reproductive Threat-Based Model of Evolved Sex Differences in Jealousy

    OpenAIRE

    Brad J. Sagarin; D. Vaughn Becker; Rosanna E. Guadagno; Wayne W. Wilkinson; Lionel D. Nicastle

    2012-01-01

    Although heterosexual women and men consistently demonstrate sex differences in jealousy, these differences disappear among lesbians and gay men as well as among heterosexual women and men contemplating same-sex infidelities (infidelities in which the partner and rival are the same sex). Synthesizing these past findings, the present paper offers a reproductive threat-based model of evolved sex differences in jealousy that predicts that the sexes will differ only when the jealous perceivers' r...

  2. Comparison of different passive dispersion models for the simulation of a given release

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wendum, D.; Musson-Genon, L.

    1996-01-01

    For internal needs of Electricite de France (dispersion computations of radioactive effluents during nuclear emergency situations, simulations of chemical pollution on the vicinity of thermal power plants), different models of passive dispersion in the atmosphere have been developed at the R and D D. This report presents the comparison of the performances of three such models: DIFTRA (Lagrangian puff model, with operational goal), DIFEUL (three dimensional Eulerian) and DiFPAR (Monte-Carlo particle model). The aim of this intercomparison is to assess the model differences of concentration values computed during an academic release in real meteorological conditions. The obtained results give inter-model differences of the same order as the model vs. experience differences observed during an international model comparison experiment using data of the Chernobyl release, the ATMES exercise. In a future study we plan to compare the results of these models to the results of an international tracer campaign named ETEX95, during which a passive tracer cloud has been followed over Europe. (author). 13 refs., 8 figs

  3. Evaluation of Intercomparisons of Four Different Types of Model Simulating TWP-ICE

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petch, Jon; Hill, Adrian; Davies, Laura; Fridlind, Ann; Jakob, Christian; Lin, Yanluan; Xie, Shaoecheng; Zhu, Ping

    2013-01-01

    Four model intercomparisons were run and evaluated using the TWP-ICE field campaign, each involving different types of atmospheric model. Here we highlight what can be learnt from having single-column model (SCM), cloud-resolving model (CRM), global atmosphere model (GAM) and limited-area model (LAM) intercomparisons all based around the same field campaign. We also make recommendations for anyone planning further large multi-model intercomparisons to ensure they are of maximum value to the model development community. CRMs tended to match observations better than other model types, although there were exceptions such as outgoing long-wave radiation. All SCMs grew large temperature and moisture biases and performed worse than other model types for many diagnostics. The GAMs produced a delayed and significantly reduced peak in domain-average rain rate when compared to the observations. While it was shown that this was in part due to the analysis used to drive these models, the LAMs were also driven by this analysis and did not have the problem to the same extent. Based on differences between the models with parametrized convection (SCMs and GAMs) and those without (CRMs and LAMs), we speculate that that having explicit convection helps to constrain liquid water whereas the ice contents are controlled more by the representation of the microphysics.

  4. Famous puzzles of great mathematicians

    CERN Document Server

    Petković, Miodrag S

    2009-01-01

    This entertaining book presents a collection of 180 famous mathematical puzzles and intriguing elementary problems that great mathematicians have posed, discussed, and/or solved. The selected problems do not require advanced mathematics, making this book accessible to a variety of readers. Mathematical recreations offer a rich playground for both amateur and professional mathematicians. Believing that creative stimuli and aesthetic considerations are closely related, great mathematicians from ancient times to the present have always taken an interest in puzzles and diversions. The goal of this

  5. Constraining the JULES land-surface model for different land-use types using citizen-science generated hydrological data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chou, H. K.; Ochoa-Tocachi, B. F.; Buytaert, W.

    2017-12-01

    Community land surface models such as JULES are increasingly used for hydrological assessment because of their state-of-the-art representation of land-surface processes. However, a major weakness of JULES and other land surface models is the limited number of land surface parameterizations that is available. Therefore, this study explores the use of data from a network of catchments under homogeneous land-use to generate parameter "libraries" to extent the land surface parameterizations of JULES. The network (called iMHEA) is part of a grassroots initiative to characterise the hydrological response of different Andean ecosystems, and collects data on streamflow, precipitation, and several weather variables at a high temporal resolution. The tropical Andes are a useful case study because of the complexity of meteorological and geographical conditions combined with extremely heterogeneous land-use that result in a wide range of hydrological responses. We then calibrated JULES for each land-use represented in the iMHEA dataset. For the individual land-use types, the results show improved simulations of streamflow when using the calibrated parameters with respect to default values. In particular, the partitioning between surface and subsurface flows can be improved. But also, on a regional scale, hydrological modelling was greatly benefitted from constraining parameters using such distributed citizen-science generated streamflow data. This study demonstrates the modelling and prediction on regional hydrology by integrating citizen science and land surface model. In the context of hydrological study, the limitation of data scarcity could be solved indeed by using this framework. Improved predictions of such impacts could be leveraged by catchment managers to guide watershed interventions, to evaluate their effectiveness, and to minimize risks.

  6. Evaluation of regional climate simulations over the Great Lakes region driven by three global data sets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shiyuan Zhong; Xiuping Li; Xindi Bian; Warren E. Heilman; L. Ruby Leung; William I. Jr. Gustafson

    2012-01-01

    The performance of regional climate simulations is evaluated for the Great Lakes region. Three 10-year (1990-1999) current-climate simulations are performed using the MM5 regional climate model (RCM) with 36-km horizontal resolution. The simulations employed identical configuration and physical parameterizations, but different lateral boundary conditions and sea-...

  7. The finite-difference and finite-element modeling of seismic wave propagation and earthquake motion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moszo, P.; Kristek, J.; Galis, M.; Pazak, P.; Balazovijech, M.

    2006-01-01

    Numerical modeling of seismic wave propagation and earthquake motion is an irreplaceable tool in investigation of the Earth's structure, processes in the Earth, and particularly earthquake phenomena. Among various numerical methods, the finite-difference method is the dominant method in the modeling of earthquake motion. Moreover, it is becoming more important in the seismic exploration and structural modeling. At the same time we are convinced that the best time of the finite-difference method in seismology is in the future. This monograph provides tutorial and detailed introduction to the application of the finite-difference, finite-element, and hybrid finite-difference-finite-element methods to the modeling of seismic wave propagation and earthquake motion. The text does not cover all topics and aspects of the methods. We focus on those to which we have contributed. (Author)

  8. Modelling of different enzyme productions by solid-state fermentation on several agro-industrial residues.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diaz, Ana Belen; Blandino, Ana; Webb, Colin; Caro, Ildefonso

    2016-11-01

    A simple kinetic model, with only three fitting parameters, for several enzyme productions in Petri dishes by solid-state fermentation is proposed in this paper, which may be a valuable tool for simulation of this type of processes. Basically, the model is able to predict temporal fungal enzyme production by solid-state fermentation on complex substrates, maximum enzyme activity expected and time at which these maxima are reached. In this work, several fermentations in solid state were performed in Petri dishes, using four filamentous fungi grown on different agro-industrial residues, measuring xylanase, exo-polygalacturonase, cellulose and laccase activities over time. Regression coefficients after fitting experimental data to the proposed model turned out to be quite high in all cases. In fact, these results are very interesting considering, on the one hand, the simplicity of the model and, on the other hand, that enzyme activities correspond to different enzymes, produced by different fungi on different substrates.

  9. Unpacking the great transmission debate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Denning, Kathryn

    2010-12-01

    The debate about the wisdom of sending interstellar transmissions is well-known to those involved in SETI, and frustrating for many. Its tendency towards intractability is a result of multiple factors, including: different models of the scientist's role as citizen and/or leader; disparate ideas about society's readiness to cope with frontier science; variable political substrates, particularly ideas concerning individual freedom and state control; competing ideologies of globalization; and the perceived relative risks and benefits of contact. (Variations in the latter, i.e. assessments of the risks and benefits of contact, derive partly from different thinking styles, including tolerance for risk, and partly from inferences based upon episodes of biological and cultural contact on Earth.) Unpacking the debate into its components may be of use to those debating policy about SETI transmissions, or at the very least, help keep in focus what, precisely, the perennial arguments are really about.

  10. Force Field Benchmark of Amino Acids: I. Hydration and Diffusion in Different Water Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Haiyang; Yin, Chunhua; Jiang, Yang; van der Spoel, David

    2018-04-18

    Thermodynamic and kinetic properties are of critical importance for the applicability of computational models to biomolecules such as proteins. Here we present an extensive evaluation of the Amber ff99SB-ILDN force field for modeling of hydration and diffusion of amino acids with three-site (SPC, SPC/E, SPC/E b , and TIP3P), four-site (TIP4P, TIP4P-Ew, and TIP4P/2005), and five-site (TIP5P and TIP5P-Ew) water models. Hydration free energies (HFEs) of neutral amino acid side chain analogues have little dependence on the water model, with a root-mean-square error (RMSE) of ∼1 kcal/mol from experimental observations. On the basis of the number of interacting sites in the water model, HFEs of charged side chains can be putatively classified into three groups, of which the group of three-site models lies between those of four- and five-site water models; for each group, the water model dependence is greatly eliminated when the solvent Galvani potential is considered. Some discrepancies in the location of the first hydration peak ( R RDF ) in the ion-water radial distribution function between experimental and calculated observations were detected, such as a systematic underestimation of the acetate (Asp side chain) ion. The RMSE of calculated diffusion coefficients of amino acids from experiment increases linearly with the increasing diffusion coefficients of the solvent water models at infinite dilution. TIP3P has the fastest diffusivity, in line with literature findings, while the "FB" and "OPC" water model families as well as TIP4P/2005 perform well, within a relative error of 5%, and TIP4P/2005 yields the most accurate estimate for the water diffusion coefficient. All of the tested water models overestimate amino acid diffusion coefficients by approximately 40% (TIP4P/2005) to 200% (TIP3P). Scaling of protein-water interactions with TIP4P/2005 in the Amber ff99SBws and ff03ws force fields leads to more negative HFEs but has little influence on the diffusion of

  11. Unpacking buyer-seller differences in valuation from experience: A cognitive modeling approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pachur, Thorsten; Scheibehenne, Benjamin

    2017-12-01

    People often indicate a higher price for an object when they own it (i.e., as sellers) than when they do not (i.e., as buyers)-a phenomenon known as the endowment effect. We develop a cognitive modeling approach to formalize, disentangle, and compare alternative psychological accounts (e.g., loss aversion, loss attention, strategic misrepresentation) of such buyer-seller differences in pricing decisions of monetary lotteries. To also be able to test possible buyer-seller differences in memory and learning, we study pricing decisions from experience, obtained with the sampling paradigm, where people learn about a lottery's payoff distribution from sequential sampling. We first formalize different accounts as models within three computational frameworks (reinforcement learning, instance-based learning theory, and cumulative prospect theory), and then fit the models to empirical selling and buying prices. In Study 1 (a reanalysis of published data with hypothetical decisions), models assuming buyer-seller differences in response bias (implementing a strategic-misrepresentation account) performed best; models assuming buyer-seller differences in choice sensitivity or memory (implementing a loss-attention account) generally fared worst. In a new experiment involving incentivized decisions (Study 2), models assuming buyer-seller differences in both outcome sensitivity (as proposed by a loss-aversion account) and response bias performed best. In both Study 1 and 2, the models implemented in cumulative prospect theory performed best. Model recovery studies validated our cognitive modeling approach, showing that the models can be distinguished rather well. In summary, our analysis supports a loss-aversion account of the endowment effect, but also reveals a substantial contribution of simple response bias.

  12. Instruments for Tuning Differing Courses: A Model of Professional Behavior and a Model of Common Aspects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vos, Henk

    This paper describes the improvement of a series of lab courses in electrical engineering at the University of Twente in Enschede, the Netherlands. Five differing courses of lab classes (measuring instruments and network analysis, basic digital circuits, basic circuits of electronics, electronic functions, and physics measuring methods and…

  13. Effects of intraocular lenses with different diopters on chromatic aberrations in human eye models

    OpenAIRE

    Song, Hui; Yuan, Xiaoyong; Tang, Xin

    2016-01-01

    Background In this study, the effects of intraocular lenses (IOLs) with different diopters (D) on chromatic aberration were investigated in human eye models, and the influences of the central thickness of IOLs on chromatic aberration were compared. Methods A Liou-Brennan-based IOL eye model was constructed using ZEMAX optical design software. Spherical IOLs with different diopters (AR40e, AMO Company, USA) were implanted; modulation transfer function (MTF) values at 3?mm of pupil diameter and...

  14. IMPORTANCE OF DIFFERENT MODELS IN DECISION MAKING, EXPLAINING THE STRATEGIC BEHAVIOR IN ORGANIZATIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristiano de Oliveira Maciel

    2006-11-01

    Full Text Available This study is about the different models of decision process analyzing the organizational strategy. The article presents the strategy according to a cognitive approach. The discussion about that approach has three models of decision process: rational actor model, organizational behavior, and political model. These models, respectively, present some improvement in the decision making results, search for a good decision facing the cognitive restrictions of the administrator, and lots of talks for making a decision. According to the emphasis of each model, the possibilities for analyzing the strategy are presented. The article also shows that it is necessary to take into account the three different ways of analysis. That statement is justified once the analysis as well as the decision making become more complex, mainly those which are more important for the organizations.

  15. The effect of different weather data sets and their resolution on climate-based daylight modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Iversen, A; Svendsen, Svend; Nielsen, Toke Rammer

    2013-01-01

    Climate-based daylight modelling is based on the available weather data, which means that the weather data used as input to the daylight simulations are of great importance. In this paper, the effect on the outcome of the daylight simulations of using one weather data file rather than another...... for the same location was investigated. Furthermore, the effect of using weather data sets with an hourly resolution compared to a one-minute resolution was investigated. The results showed that the lighting dependencies varied by up to 2% depending on the chosen weather data file and indoor illuminance...... threshold. The energy consumption for artificial lighting was underestimated when simulating with time steps of hourly means compared to one-minute resolution. The findings from this comparison show that the dynamic, short-term effects of the weather have a surprisingly small impact on the simulation...

  16. Taking individual scaling differences into account by analyzing profile data with the Mixed Assessor Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brockhoff, Per Bruun; Schlich, Pascal; Skovgaard, Ib

    2015-01-01

    Scale range differences between individual assessors will often constitute a non-trivial part of the assessor-by-product interaction in sensory profile data (Brockhoff, 2003, 1998; Brockhoff and Skovgaard, 1994). We suggest a new mixed model ANOVA analysis approach, the Mixed Assessor Model (MAM...

  17. Modelling the climate of the last millennium: what causes the differences between simulations?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Goosse, H.; Crowley, T.J.; Zorita, E.; Ammann, C.M.; Renssen, H.; Driesschaert, E.

    2005-01-01

    An ensemble of simulations performed with a coarse resolution 3-D climate model driven by various combinations of external forcing is used to investigate possible causes for differences noticed in two recent simulations of the climate of the past millennium using General Circulation Models (GCMs).

  18. Impact of climate change on river flooding assessed with different spatial model resolutions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Booij, Martijn J.

    2005-01-01

    The impact of climate change on flooding in the river Meuse is assessed on a daily basis using spatially and temporally changed climate patterns and a hydrological model with three different spatial resolutions. This is achieved by selecting a hydrological modelling framework and implementing

  19. Non-linear DSGE Models and The Central Difference Kalman Filter

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andreasen, Martin Møller

    This paper introduces a Quasi Maximum Likelihood (QML) approach based on the Cen- tral Difference Kalman Filter (CDKF) to estimate non-linear DSGE models with potentially non-Gaussian shocks. We argue that this estimator can be expected to be consistent and asymptotically normal for DSGE models...

  20. Different human gut models reveal the distinct fermentation patterns of arabinoxylan versus inulin

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Abbeele, P. van den; Venema, K.; Wiele, T. van de; Verstraete, W.; Possemiers, S.

    2013-01-01

    Different in vitro models have been developed to assess how food compounds affect the human gut microbiota. Using two such models (SHIME(R) and TIM-2), we compared how long-chain arabinoxylan (LC-AX), a wheat-derived potentially prebiotic fiber, and inulin (IN), a well-established prebiotic

  1. Combining predictions from linear models when training and test inputs differ

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    T. van Ommen (Thijs); N.L. Zhang (Nevin); J. Tian (Jin)

    2014-01-01

    textabstractMethods for combining predictions from different models in a supervised learning setting must somehow estimate/predict the quality of a model's predictions at unknown future inputs. Many of these methods (often implicitly) make the assumption that the test inputs are identical to the

  2. Dependence of Xmax and multiplicity of electron and muon on different high energy interaction models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G Rastegarzadeh

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available Different high energy interaction models are the applied in CORSIKA code to simulate Extensive Air Showers (EAS generated by Cosmic Rays (CR. In this work the effects of QGSJET01, QGSJETII, DPMJET, SIBYLL models on Xmax and multiplicity of secondary electrons and muons at observation level are studied.

  3. CLIC Detector Concepts as described in the CDR: Differences between the GEANT4 and Engineering Models

    CERN Document Server

    Elsener, K; Schlatter, D; Siegrist, N

    2011-01-01

    The CLIC_ILD and CLIC_SiD detector concepts as used for the CDR Vol. 2 in 2011 exist both in GEANT4 simulation models and in engineering layout drawings. At this early stage of a conceptual design, there are inevitably differences between these models, which are described in this note.

  4. Investigating students’ mental models about the nature of light in different contexts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Özcan, Özgür

    2015-11-01

    In this study, we investigated pre-service physics teachers’ mental models of light in different contexts, such as blackbody radiation, the photoelectric effect and the Compton effect. The data collected through the paper-and-pencil questionnaire (PPQ) were analyzed both quantitatively and qualitatively. Sampling of this study consists of a total of 110 physics education students who were taking a modern physics course at two different state universities in Turkey. As a result, three mental models, which were called the beam ray model (BrM), hybrid model (HM) and particle model (PM), were being used by the students while explaining these phenomena. The most model fluctuation was seen in HM and BrM. In addition, some students were in a mixed-model state where they use multiple mental models in explaining a phenomenon and used these models inconsistently. On the other hand, most of the students who used the particle model can be said to be in a pure model state.

  5. Applying different quality and safety models in healthcare improvement work: Boundary objects and system thinking

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wiig, Siri; Robert, Glenn; Anderson, Janet E.; Pietikainen, Elina; Reiman, Teemu; Macchi, Luigi; Aase, Karina

    2014-01-01

    A number of theoretical models can be applied to help guide quality improvement and patient safety interventions in hospitals. However there are often significant differences between such models and, therefore, their potential contribution when applied in diverse contexts. The aim of this paper is to explore how two such models have been applied by hospitals to improve quality and safety. We describe and compare the models: (1) The Organizing for Quality (OQ) model, and (2) the Design for Integrated Safety Culture (DISC) model. We analyze the theoretical foundations of the models, and show, by using a retrospective comparative case study approach from two European hospitals, how these models have been applied to improve quality and safety. The analysis shows that differences appear in the theoretical foundations, practical approaches and applications of the models. Nevertheless, the case studies indicate that the choice between the OQ and DISC models is of less importance for guiding the practice of quality and safety improvement work, as they are both systemic and share some important characteristics. The main contribution of the models lay in their role as boundary objects directing attention towards organizational and systems thinking, culture, and collaboration

  6. Uncertainty analysis of hydrological modeling in a tropical area using different algorithms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rafiei Emam, Ammar; Kappas, Martin; Fassnacht, Steven; Linh, Nguyen Hoang Khanh

    2018-01-01

    Hydrological modeling outputs are subject to uncertainty resulting from different sources of errors (e.g., error in input data, model structure, and model parameters), making quantification of uncertainty in hydrological modeling imperative and meant to improve reliability of modeling results. The uncertainty analysis must solve difficulties in calibration of hydrological models, which further increase in areas with data scarcity. The purpose of this study is to apply four uncertainty analysis algorithms to a semi-distributed hydrological model, quantifying different source of uncertainties (especially parameter uncertainty) and evaluate their performance. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tools (SWAT) eco-hydrological model was implemented for the watershed in the center of Vietnam. The sensitivity of parameters was analyzed, and the model was calibrated. The uncertainty analysis for the hydrological model was conducted based on four algorithms: Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE), Sequential Uncertainty Fitting (SUFI), Parameter Solution method (ParaSol) and Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO). The performance of the algorithms was compared using P-factor and Rfactor, coefficient of determination (R 2), the Nash Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency (NSE) and Percent Bias (PBIAS). The results showed the high performance of SUFI and PSO with P-factor>0.83, R-factor 0.91, NSE>0.89, and 0.18model use for policy or management decisions.

  7. Comparing Cattell-Horn-Carroll factor models: differences between bifactor and higher order factor models in predicting language achievement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beaujean, A Alexander; Parkin, Jason; Parker, Sonia

    2014-09-01

    Previous research using the Cattell-Horn-Carroll (CHC) theory of cognitive abilities has shown a relationship between cognitive ability and academic achievement. Most of this research, however, has been done using the Woodcock-Johnson family of instruments with a higher order factor model. For CHC theory to grow, research should be done with other assessment instruments and tested with other factor models. This study examined the relationship between different factor models of CHC theory and the factors' relationships with language-based academic achievement (i.e., reading and writing). Using the co-norming sample for the Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children--4th Edition and the Wechsler Individual Achievement Test--2nd Edition, we found that bifactor and higher order models of the subtests of the Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children-4th Edition produced a different set of Stratum II factors, which, in turn, have very different relationships with the language achievement variables of the Wechsler Individual Achievement Test--2nd Edition. We conclude that the factor model used to represent CHC theory makes little difference when general intelligence is of major interest, but it makes a large difference when the Stratum II factors are of primary concern, especially when they are used to predict other variables. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved.

  8. Anomalous Scaling Behaviors in a Rice-Pile Model with Two Different Driving Mechanisms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Duanming; Sun Hongzhang; Li Zhihua; Pan Guijun; Yu Boming; Li Rui; Yin Yanping

    2005-01-01

    The moment analysis is applied to perform large scale simulations of the rice-pile model. We find that this model shows different scaling behavior depending on the driving mechanism used. With the noisy driving, the rice-pile model violates the finite-size scaling hypothesis, whereas, with fixed driving, it shows well defined avalanche exponents and displays good finite size scaling behavior for the avalanche size and time duration distributions.

  9. a deterministic model for predicting water yield from two different watersheds

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Putu Sudira

    2013-07-01

    The final test of the adequacy of the model lay in a comparison of observed and simulated runoff The comparison showed that the observed and simulated runoff values are not significantly different. This was based on the results obtained from statistical measures to test the model. The model did a better simulation in the smaller watershed (Pogung-Code sub watershed than in the larger one (Pulo-Opak sub watershed.

  10. Making a Great First Impression

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evenson, Renee

    2007-01-01

    Managers and business owners often base hiring decisions on first impressions. That is why it is so important to teach students to make a great first impression--before they go on that first job interview. Managers do not have unrealistic expectations, they just want to hire people who they believe can develop into valuable employees. A nice…

  11. Great Basin paleoenvironmental studies project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1993-01-01

    Project goals, project tasks, progress on tasks, and problems encountered are described and discussed for each of the studies that make up the Great Basin Paleoenvironmental Studies Project for Yucca Mountain. These studies are: Paleobotany, Paleofauna, Geomorphology, and Transportation. Budget summaries are also given for each of the studies and for the overall project

  12. The Great Gatsby. [Lesson Plan].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zelasko, Ken

    Based on F. Scott Fitzgerald's novel "The Great Gatsby," this lesson plan presents activities designed to help students understand that adapting part of a novel into a dramatic reading makes students more intimate with the author's intentions and craft; and that a part of a novel may lend itself to various oral interpretations. The main activity…

  13. Great Books 2.0

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clemens, David

    2009-01-01

    As documented by multiple NEA studies ("Reading at Risk," 2004; "To Read or Not to Read," 2007), reading has become devalued in American life, on sale in the clearance bin along with notions of greatness, classic works and ideas, and Western civilization itself. Trying to teach fine literature, writes the author, has become the struggle of how to…

  14. Improving Junior High Schools’ Critical Thinking Skills Based on Test Three Different Models of Learning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nur Miftahul Fuad

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The aims of this study were (1 to find out the differences in critical thinking skills among students who were given three different learning models: differentiated science inquiry combined with mind map, differentiated science inquiry model, and conventional model, (2 to find out the differences of critical thinking skills among male and female students. This study is a quasi-experimental research with pretest-posttest nonequivalent control group design. The population in this research is the seventh grade students of junior high schools in Kediri, Indonesia. The sample of the research is in the number of 96 students distributed in three classes at different schools. The data of critical thinking skills are gained from test scores and then analyzed using descriptive and inferential statistics through ANCOVA. The results of research revealed that there are different skills in critical thinking in different models. The highest skills in critical thinking are reached by students who were given differentiated science inquiry model combined with mind map in their learning. There are also differences in critical thinking skills between male and female students.

  15. a Bayesian Synthesis of Predictions from Different Models for Setting Water Quality Criteria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arhonditsis, G. B.; Ecological Modelling Laboratory

    2011-12-01

    Skeptical views of the scientific value of modelling argue that there is no true model of an ecological system, but rather several adequate descriptions of different conceptual basis and structure. In this regard, rather than picking the single "best-fit" model to predict future system responses, we can use Bayesian model averaging to synthesize the forecasts from different models. Hence, by acknowledging that models from different areas of the complexity spectrum have different strengths and weaknesses, the Bayesian model averaging is an appealing approach to improve the predictive capacity and to overcome the ambiguity surrounding the model selection or the risk of basing ecological forecasts on a single model. Our study addresses this question using a complex ecological model, developed by Ramin et al. (2011; Environ Modell Softw 26, 337-353) to guide the water quality criteria setting process in the Hamilton Harbour (Ontario, Canada), along with a simpler plankton model that considers the interplay among phosphate, detritus, and generic phytoplankton and zooplankton state variables. This simple approach is more easily subjected to detailed sensitivity analysis and also has the advantage of fewer unconstrained parameters. Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulations, we calculate the relative mean standard error to assess the posterior support of the two models from the existing data. Predictions from the two models are then combined using the respective standard error estimates as weights in a weighted model average. The model averaging approach is used to examine the robustness of predictive statements made from our earlier work regarding the response of Hamilton Harbour to the different nutrient loading reduction strategies. The two eutrophication models are then used in conjunction with the SPAtially Referenced Regressions On Watershed attributes (SPARROW) watershed model. The Bayesian nature of our work is used: (i) to alleviate problems of spatiotemporal

  16. An ocular biomechanic model for dynamic simulation of different eye movements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iskander, J; Hossny, M; Nahavandi, S; Del Porto, L

    2018-04-11

    Simulating and analysing eye movement is useful for assessing visual system contribution to discomfort with respect to body movements, especially in virtual environments where simulation sickness might occur. It can also be used in the design of eye prosthesis or humanoid robot eye. In this paper, we present two biomechanic ocular models that are easily integrated into the available musculoskeletal models. The model was previously used to simulate eye-head coordination. The models are used to simulate and analyse eye movements. The proposed models are based on physiological and kinematic properties of the human eye. They incorporate an eye-globe, orbital suspension tissues and six muscles with their connective tissues (pulleys). Pulleys were incorporated in rectus and inferior oblique muscles. The two proposed models are the passive pulleys and the active pulleys models. Dynamic simulations of different eye movements, including fixation, saccade and smooth pursuit, are performed to validate both models. The resultant force-length curves of the models were similar to the experimental data. The simulation results show that the proposed models are suitable to generate eye movement simulations with results comparable to other musculoskeletal models. The maximum kinematic root mean square error (RMSE) is 5.68° and 4.35° for the passive and active pulley models, respectively. The analysis of the muscle forces showed realistic muscle activation with increased muscle synergy in the active pulley model. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Lebedev acceleration and comparison of different photometric models in the inversion of lightcurves for asteroids

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Xiao-Ping; Huang, Xiang-Jie; Ip, Wing-Huen; Hsia, Chi-Hao

    2018-04-01

    In the lightcurve inversion process where asteroid's physical parameters such as rotational period, pole orientation and overall shape are searched, the numerical calculations of the synthetic photometric brightness based on different shape models are frequently implemented. Lebedev quadrature is an efficient method to numerically calculate the surface integral on the unit sphere. By transforming the surface integral on the Cellinoid shape model to that on the unit sphere, the lightcurve inversion process based on the Cellinoid shape model can be remarkably accelerated. Furthermore, Matlab codes of the lightcurve inversion process based on the Cellinoid shape model are available on Github for free downloading. The photometric models, i.e., the scattering laws, also play an important role in the lightcurve inversion process, although the shape variations of asteroids dominate the morphologies of the lightcurves. Derived from the radiative transfer theory, the Hapke model can describe the light reflectance behaviors from the viewpoint of physics, while there are also many empirical models in numerical applications. Numerical simulations are implemented for the comparison of the Hapke model with the other three numerical models, including the Lommel-Seeliger, Minnaert, and Kaasalainen models. The results show that the numerical models with simple function expressions can fit well with the synthetic lightcurves generated based on the Hapke model; this good fit implies that they can be adopted in the lightcurve inversion process for asteroids to improve the numerical efficiency and derive similar results to those of the Hapke model.

  18. Evaluation of Different Dose-Response Models for High Hydrostatic Pressure Inactivation of Microorganisms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buzrul, Sencer

    2017-09-07

    Modeling of microbial inactivation by high hydrostatic pressure (HHP) requires a plot of the log microbial count or survival ratio versus time data under a constant pressure and temperature. However, at low pressure and temperature values, very long holding times are needed to obtain measurable inactivation. Since the time has a significant effect on the cost of HHP processing it may be reasonable to fix the time at an appropriate value and quantify the inactivation with respect to pressure. Such a plot is called dose-response curve and it may be more beneficial than the traditional inactivation modeling since short holding times with different pressure values can be selected and used for the modeling of HHP inactivation. For this purpose, 49 dose-response curves (with at least 4 log 10 reduction and ≥5 data points including the atmospheric pressure value ( P = 0.1 MPa), and with holding time ≤10 min) for HHP inactivation of microorganisms obtained from published studies were fitted with four different models, namely the Discrete model, Shoulder model, Fermi equation, and Weibull model, and the pressure value needed for 5 log 10 ( P ₅) inactivation was calculated for all the models above. The Shoulder model and Fermi equation produced exactly the same parameter and P ₅ values, while the Discrete model produced similar or sometimes the exact same parameter values as the Fermi equation. The Weibull model produced the worst fit (had the lowest adjusted determination coefficient (R² adj ) and highest mean square error (MSE) values), while the Fermi equation had the best fit (the highest R² adj and lowest MSE values). Parameters of the models and also P ₅ values of each model can be useful for the further experimental design of HHP processing and also for the comparison of the pressure resistance of different microorganisms. Further experiments can be done to verify the P ₅ values at given conditions. The procedure given in this study can also be extended

  19. Population genetics of Great Basin feral horses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowling, A T

    1994-06-01

    The genetic make-up of