The use of process models to inform and improve statistical models of nitrate occurrence, Great Miami River Basin, southwestern Ohio

Science.gov (United States)

Walter, Donald A.; Starn, J. Jeffrey

2013-01-01

in estimated variables for circular buffers and contributing recharge areas of existing public-supply and network wells in the Great Miami River Basin. Large differences in areaweighted mean environmental variables are observed at the basin scale, determined by using the network of uniformly spaced hypothetical wells; the differences have a spatial pattern that generally is similar to spatial patterns in the underlying STATSGO data. Generally, the largest differences were observed for area-weighted nitrogen-application rate from county and national land-use data; the basin-scale differences ranged from -1,600 (indicating a larger value from within the volume-equivalent contributing recharge area) to 1,900 kilograms per year (kg/yr); the range in the underlying spatial data was from 0 to 2,200 kg/yr. Silt content, alfisol content, and nitrogen-application rate are defined by the underlying spatial data and are external to the groundwater system; however, depth to water is an environmental variable that can be estimated in more detail and, presumably, in a more physically based manner using a groundwater-flow model than using the spatial data. Model-calculated depths to water within circular buffers in the Great Miami River Basin differed substantially from values derived from the spatial data and had a much larger range. Differences in estimates of area-weighted spatial variables result in corresponding differences in predictions of nitrate occurrence in the aquifer. In addition to the factors affecting contributing recharge areas and estimated explanatory variables, differences in predictions also are a function of the specific set of explanatory variables used and the fitted slope coefficients in a given model. For models that predicted the probability of exceeding 1 and 4 milligrams per liter as nitrogen (mg/L as N), predicted probabilities using variables estimated from circular buffers and contributing recharge areas generally were correlated but differed

Evaluating Hydrologic Transience in Watershed Delineation, Numerical Modeling and Solute Transport in the Great Basin. Clayton Valley, Nevada

Science.gov (United States)

Underdown, C. G.; Boutt, D. F.; Hynek, S. A.; Munk, L. A.

2017-12-01

Importance of transience in managed groundwater systems is generally determined by timeframe of management decisions. Watersheds with management times shorter than the aquifer (watershed) response time, or the time it takes a watershed to recover from a change in hydrologic state, would not include the new state and are treated as steady-state. However, these watersheds will experience transient response between hydrologic states. Watershed response time is a function of length. Therefore flat, regional watersheds characteristic of the Great Basin have long response times. Defining watershed extents as the area in which the water budget is balanced means inputs equal outputs. Steady-state budgets in the Great Basin have been balanced by extending watershed boundaries to include more area for recharge; however, the length and age of requisite flow paths are poorly constrained and often unrealistic. Inclusion of stored water in hydrologic budget calculations permits water balance within smaller contributing areas. As groundwater flow path lengths, depths, and locations differ between steady-state and transient systems, so do solute transport mechanisms. To observe how transience affects response time and solute transport, a refined (transient) version of the USGS steady-state groundwater flow model of the Great Basin is evaluated. This model is used to assess transient changes in contributing area for Clayton Valley, a lithium-brine producing endorheic basin in southwestern Nevada. Model runs of various recharge, discharge and storage bounds are created from conceptual models based upon historical climate data. Comparing results of the refined model to USGS groundwater observations allows for model validation and comparison against the USGS steady-state model. The transient contributing area to Clayton Valley is 85% smaller than that calculated from the steady-state solution, however several long flow paths important to both water and solute budgets at Clayton Valley

Individual differences in the use of social information in foraging by captive great tits

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Marchetti, C.M.; Drent, P.J.

2000-01-01

We investigated individual differences in copying behaviour of captive great tits, Parus major, by analysing their response to a tutor indicating a new feeding site. We used two groups, each di seven male birds, labelled 'fast' and 'slow' explorers based on previous studies in which consistent

A new isolation with migration model along complete genomes infers very different divergence processes among closely related great ape species.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Thomas Mailund

Full Text Available We present a hidden Markov model (HMM for inferring gradual isolation between two populations during speciation, modelled as a time interval with restricted gene flow. The HMM describes the history of adjacent nucleotides in two genomic sequences, such that the nucleotides can be separated by recombination, can migrate between populations, or can coalesce at variable time points, all dependent on the parameters of the model, which are the effective population sizes, splitting times, recombination rate, and migration rate. We show by extensive simulations that the HMM can accurately infer all parameters except the recombination rate, which is biased downwards. Inference is robust to variation in the mutation rate and the recombination rate over the sequence and also robust to unknown phase of genomes unless they are very closely related. We provide a test for whether divergence is gradual or instantaneous, and we apply the model to three key divergence processes in great apes: (a the bonobo and common chimpanzee, (b the eastern and western gorilla, and (c the Sumatran and Bornean orang-utan. We find that the bonobo and chimpanzee appear to have undergone a clear split, whereas the divergence processes of the gorilla and orang-utan species occurred over several hundred thousands years with gene flow stopping quite recently. We also apply the model to the Homo/Pan speciation event and find that the most likely scenario involves an extended period of gene flow during speciation.

Why Different Drought Indexes Show Distinct Future Drought Risk Outcomes in the U.S. Great Plains?

Science.gov (United States)

Feng, S.; Hayes, M. J.; Trnka, M.

2015-12-01

Vigorous discussions and disagreements about the future changes in drought intensity in the US Great Plains have been taking place recently within the literature. These discussions have involved widely varying estimates based on drought indices and model-based projections of the future. To investigate and understand the causes for such a disparity between these previous estimates, we analyzed 10 commonly-used drought indexes using the output from 26 state-of-the-art climate models. These drought indices were computed using potential evapotranspiration estimated by the physically-based Penman-Monteith method (PE_pm) and the empirically-based Thornthwaite method (PE_th). The results showed that the short-term drought indicators are similar to modeled surface soil moisture and show a small but consistent drying trend in the future. The long-term drought indicators and the total column soil moisture, however, are consistent in projecting more intense future drought. When normalized, the drought indices with PE_th all show unprecedented and possibly unrealistic future drying, while the drought indices with PE_pm show comparable dryness with the modeled soil moisture. Additionally, the drought indices with PE_pm are closely related to soil moisture during both the 20th and 21st Centuries. Overall, the drought indices with PE_pm, as well as the modeled total column soil moisture, suggest a widespread and very significant drying of the Great Plains region toward the end of the Century. Our results suggested that the sharp contracts about future drought risk in the Great Plains discussed in previous studies are caused by 1) comparing the projected changes in short-term droughts with that of the long-term droughts, and/or 2) computing the atmospheric evaporative demand using the empirically-based method (e.g., PE_th). Our analysis may be applied for drought projections in other regions across the globe.

Regularized Estimation of Structural Instability in Factor Models: The US Macroeconomy and the Great Moderation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Callot, Laurent; Kristensen, Johannes Tang

This paper shows that the parsimoniously time-varying methodology of Callot and Kristensen (2015) can be applied to factor models.We apply this method to study macroeconomic instability in the US from 1959:1 to 2006:4 with a particular focus on the Great Moderation. Models with parsimoniously time...... that the parameters of both models exhibit a higher degree of instability in the period from 1970:1 to 1984:4 relative to the following 15 years. In our setting the Great Moderation appears as the gradual ending of a period of high structural instability that took place in the 1970s and early 1980s....

Identification of differences in human and great ape phytanic acid metabolism that could influence gene expression profiles and physiological functions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Siegmund Kimberly D

2010-10-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background It has been proposed that anatomical differences in human and great ape guts arose in response to species-specific diets and energy demands. To investigate functional genomic consequences of these differences, we compared their physiological levels of phytanic acid, a branched chain fatty acid that can be derived from the microbial degradation of chlorophyll in ruminant guts. Humans who accumulate large stores of phytanic acid commonly develop cerebellar ataxia, peripheral polyneuropathy, and retinitis pigmentosa in addition to other medical conditions. Furthermore, phytanic acid is an activator of the PPAR-alpha transcription factor that influences the expression of genes relevant to lipid metabolism. Results Despite their trace dietary phytanic acid intake, all great ape species had elevated red blood cell (RBC phytanic acid levels relative to humans on diverse diets. Unlike humans, chimpanzees showed sexual dimorphism in RBC phytanic acid levels, which were higher in males relative to females. Cultured skin fibroblasts from all species had a robust capacity to degrade phytanic acid. We provide indirect evidence that great apes, in contrast to humans, derive significant amounts of phytanic acid from the hindgut fermentation of plant materials. This would represent a novel reduction of metabolic activity in humans relative to the great apes. Conclusion We identified differences in the physiological levels of phytanic acid in humans and great apes and propose this is causally related to their gut anatomies and microbiomes. Phytanic acid levels could contribute to cross-species and sex-specific differences in human and great ape transcriptomes, especially those related to lipid metabolism. Based on the medical conditions caused by phytanic acid accumulation, we suggest that differences in phytanic acid metabolism could influence the functions of human and great ape nervous, cardiovascular, and skeletal systems.

Regional Climate Models as a Tool for Assessing Changes in the Laurentian Great Lakes Net Basin Supply

Science.gov (United States)

Music, B.; Mailhot, E.; Nadeau, D.; Irambona, C.; Frigon, A.

2017-12-01

Over the last decades, there has been growing concern about the effects of climate change on the Great Lakes water supply. Most of the modelling studies focusing on the Laurentian Great Lakes do not allow two-way exchanges of water and energy between the atmosphere and the underlying surface, and therefore do not account for important feedback mechanisms. Moreover, energy budget constraint at the land surface is not usually taken into account. To address this issue, several recent climate change studies used high resolution Regional Climate Models (RCMs) for evaluating changes in the hydrological regime of the Great Lakes. As RCMs operate on the concept of water and energy conservation, an internal consistency of the simulated energy and water budget components is assured. In this study we explore several recently generated Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations to investigate the Great Lakes' Net Basin Supply (NBS) in a changing climate. These include simulations of the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5) supplemented by simulations from several others RCMs participating to the North American CORDEX project (CORDEX-NA). The analysis focuses on the NBS extreme values under nonstationary conditions. The results are expected to provide useful information to the industries in the Great Lakes that all need to include accurate climate change information in their long-term strategy plans to better anticipate impacts of low and/or high water levels.

Modeling detection probability to improve marsh bird surveys in southern Canada and the Great Lakes states

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Douglas C. Tozer

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Marsh birds are notoriously elusive, with variation in detection probability across species, regions, seasons, and different times of day and weather. Therefore, it is important to develop regional field survey protocols that maximize detections, but that also produce data for estimating and analytically adjusting for remaining differences in detections. We aimed to improve regional field survey protocols by estimating detection probability of eight elusive marsh bird species throughout two regions that have ongoing marsh bird monitoring programs: the southern Canadian Prairies (Prairie region and the southern portion of the Great Lakes basin and parts of southern Québec (Great Lakes-St. Lawrence region. We accomplished our goal using generalized binomial N-mixture models and data from ~22,300 marsh bird surveys conducted between 2008 and 2014 by Bird Studies Canada's Prairie, Great Lakes, and Québec Marsh Monitoring Programs. Across all species, on average, detection probability was highest in the Great Lakes-St. Lawrence region from the beginning of May until mid-June, and then fell throughout the remainder of the season until the end of June; was lowest in the Prairie region in mid-May and then increased throughout the remainder of the season until the end of June; was highest during darkness compared with light; and did not vary significantly according to temperature (range: 0-30°C, cloud cover (0%-100%, or wind (0-20 kph, or during morning versus evening. We used our results to formulate improved marsh bird survey protocols for each region. Our analysis and recommendations are useful and contribute to conservation of wetland birds at various scales from local single-species studies to the continental North American Marsh Bird Monitoring Program.

Estimation of the ancestral effective population sizes of African great apes under different selection regimes.

Science.gov (United States)

Schrago, Carlos G

2014-08-01

Reliable estimates of ancestral effective population sizes are necessary to unveil the population-level phenomena that shaped the phylogeny and molecular evolution of the African great apes. Although several methods have previously been applied to infer ancestral effective population sizes, an analysis of the influence of the selective regime on the estimates of ancestral demography has not been thoroughly conducted. In this study, three independent data sets under different selective regimes were used were composed to tackle this issue. The results showed that selection had a significant impact on the estimates of ancestral effective population sizes of the African great apes. The inference of the ancestral demography of African great apes was affected by the selection regime. The effects, however, were not homogeneous along the ancestral populations of great apes. The effective population size of the ancestor of humans and chimpanzees was more impacted by the selection regime when compared to the same parameter in the ancestor of humans, chimpanzees and gorillas. Because the selection regime influenced the estimates of ancestral effective population size, it is reasonable to assume that a portion of the discrepancy found in previous studies that inferred the ancestral effective population size may be attributable to the differential action of selection on the genes sampled.

Modeling Seismic Cycles of Great Megathrust Earthquakes Across the Scales With Focus at Postseismic Phase

Science.gov (United States)

Sobolev, Stephan V.; Muldashev, Iskander A.

2017-12-01

Subduction is substantially multiscale process where the stresses are built by long-term tectonic motions, modified by sudden jerky deformations during earthquakes, and then restored by following multiple relaxation processes. Here we develop a cross-scale thermomechanical model aimed to simulate the subduction process from 1 min to million years' time scale. The model employs elasticity, nonlinear transient viscous rheology, and rate-and-state friction. It generates spontaneous earthquake sequences and by using an adaptive time step algorithm, recreates the deformation process as observed naturally during the seismic cycle and multiple seismic cycles. The model predicts that viscosity in the mantle wedge drops by more than three orders of magnitude during the great earthquake with a magnitude above 9. As a result, the surface velocities just an hour or day after the earthquake are controlled by viscoelastic relaxation in the several hundred km of mantle landward of the trench and not by the afterslip localized at the fault as is currently believed. Our model replicates centuries-long seismic cycles exhibited by the greatest earthquakes and is consistent with the postseismic surface displacements recorded after the Great Tohoku Earthquake. We demonstrate that there is no contradiction between extremely low mechanical coupling at the subduction megathrust in South Chile inferred from long-term geodynamic models and appearance of the largest earthquakes, like the Great Chile 1960 Earthquake.

Drop Hammer Tests with Three Oleo Strut Models and Three Different Shock Strut Oils at Low Temperatures

Science.gov (United States)

Kranz, M

1954-01-01

Drop hammer tests with different shock strut models and shock strut oils were performed at temperatures ranging to -40 C. The various shock strut models do not differ essentially regarding their springing and damping properties at low temperatures; however, the influence of the different shock strut oils on the springing properties at low temperatures varies greatly.

Development of a GIS interface for WEPP Model application to Great Lakes forested watersheds

Science.gov (United States)

J. R. Frankenberger; S. Dun; D. C. Flanagan; J. Q. Wu; W. J. Elliot

2011-01-01

This presentation will highlight efforts on development of a new online WEPP GIS interface, targeted toward application in forested regions bordering the Great Lakes. The key components and algorithms of the online GIS system will be outlined. The general procedures used to provide input to the WEPP model and to display model output will be demonstrated.

Forecasting effects of climate change on Great Lakes fisheries: models that link habitat supply to population dynamics can help

Science.gov (United States)

Jones, Michael L.; Shuter, Brian J.; Zhao, Yingming; Stockwell, Jason D.

2006-01-01

Future changes to climate in the Great Lakes may have important consequences for fisheries. Evidence suggests that Great Lakes air and water temperatures have risen and the duration of ice cover has lessened during the past century. Global circulation models (GCMs) suggest future warming and increases in precipitation in the region. We present new evidence that water temperatures have risen in Lake Erie, particularly during summer and winter in the period 1965–2000. GCM forecasts coupled with physical models suggest lower annual runoff, less ice cover, and lower lake levels in the future, but the certainty of these forecasts is low. Assessment of the likely effects of climate change on fish stocks will require an integrative approach that considers several components of habitat rather than water temperature alone. We recommend using mechanistic models that couple habitat conditions to population demographics to explore integrated effects of climate-caused habitat change and illustrate this approach with a model for Lake Erie walleye (Sander vitreum). We show that the combined effect on walleye populations of plausible changes in temperature, river hydrology, lake levels, and light penetration can be quite different from that which would be expected based on consideration of only a single factor.

Great Lakes modeling: Are the mathematics outpacing the data and our understanding of the system?

Science.gov (United States)

Mathematical modeling in the Great Lakes has come a long way from the pioneering work done by Manhattan College in the 1970s, when the models operated on coarse computational grids (often lake-wide) and used simple eutrophication formulations. Moving forward 40 years, we are now...

Differences in the early cognitive development of children and great apes.

Science.gov (United States)

Wobber, Victoria; Herrmann, Esther; Hare, Brian; Wrangham, Richard; Tomasello, Michael

2014-04-01

There is very little research comparing great ape and human cognition developmentally. In the current studies we compared a cross-sectional sample of 2- to 4-year-old human children (n=48) with a large sample of chimpanzees and bonobos in the same age range (n=42, hereafter: apes) on a broad array of cognitive tasks. We then followed a group of juvenile apes (n=44) longitudinally over 3 years to track their cognitive development in greater detail. In skills of physical cognition (space, causality, quantities), children and apes performed comparably at 2 years of age, but by 4 years of age children were more advanced (whereas apes stayed at their 2-year-old performance levels). In skills of social cognition (communication, social learning, theory of mind), children out-performed apes already at 2 years, and increased this difference even more by 4 years. Patterns of development differed more between children and apes in the social domain than the physical domain, with support for these patterns present in both the cross-sectional and longitudinal ape data sets. These results indicate key differences in the pattern and pace of cognitive development between humans and other apes, particularly in the early emergence of specific social cognitive capacities in humans. Copyright © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

A comparative study of the use of different risk-assessment models in Danish municipalities

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sørensen, Kresta Munkholt

2018-01-01

Risk-assessment models are widely used in casework involving vulnerable children and families. Internationally, there are a number of different kinds of models with great variation in regard to the characteristics of factors that harm children. Lists of factors have been made but most of them give...... very little advice on how the factors should be weighted. This paper will address the use of risk-assessment models in six different Danish municipalities. The paper presents a comparative analysis and discussion of differences and similarities between three models: the Integrated Children’s System...... (ICS), the Signs of Safety (SoS) model and models developed by the municipalities themselves (MM). The analysis will answer the following two key questions: (i) to which risk and protective factors do the caseworkers give most weight in the risk assessment? and (ii) does each of the different models...

Flow of groundwater from great depths into the near surface deposits - modelling of a local domain in northeast Uppland

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Holmen, Johan G.; Forsman, Jonas

2005-01-01

Purpose: To study the flow of groundwater from rock masses at great depths and into the surface near deposits by use of mathematical models; and to estimate the spatial and temporal distribution of groundwater from great depths in the surface near deposits (quaternary deposits). The study is about the hydraulic interaction between the geosphere and the biosphere. Methodology: The system studied is represented by time dependent three dimensional mathematical models. The models include groundwater flows in the rock mass and in the quaternary deposits as well as surface water flows. The established groundwater models have such a resolution (degree of detail) that both rock masses at great depth and near surface deposits are included in the flow system studied. The modelling includes simulations under both steady state conditions and transient conditions The transient simulations represents the varying state of the groundwater system studied, caused by the variation in hydro-meteorological conditions during a normal year, a wet-year and a dry-year. The boundary condition along the topography of the model is a non-linear boundary condition, representing the ground surface above the sea and the varying actual groundwater recharge. Area studied: The area studied is located in Sweden, in the Northeast of the Uppland province, close to the Forsmark nuclear power plant. Water balance modelling: To obtain three significantly different groundwater recharge periods for the transient groundwater flow simulations a water balance modelling was carried out based on a statistical analysis of available hydro-meteorological data. To obtain a temporal distribution of the runoff (i.e. potential groundwater recharge), we have conducted a numerical time dependent water balance modelling. General conclusions of groundwater modelling: The discharge areas for the flow paths from great depth are given by the topography and located along valleys and lakes; the spatial and temporal extension of

Flow of groundwater from great depths into the near surface deposits - modelling of a local domain in northeast Uppland

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Holmen, Johan G.; Forsman, Jonas [Golder Associates, Stockholm (Sweden)

2005-01-15

Purpose: To study the flow of groundwater from rock masses at great depths and into the surface near deposits by use of mathematical models; and to estimate the spatial and temporal distribution of groundwater from great depths in the surface near deposits (quaternary deposits). The study is about the hydraulic interaction between the geosphere and the biosphere. Methodology: The system studied is represented by time dependent three dimensional mathematical models. The models include groundwater flows in the rock mass and in the quaternary deposits as well as surface water flows. The established groundwater models have such a resolution (degree of detail) that both rock masses at great depth and near surface deposits are included in the flow system studied. The modelling includes simulations under both steady state conditions and transient conditions The transient simulations represents the varying state of the groundwater system studied, caused by the variation in hydro-meteorological conditions during a normal year, a wet-year and a dry-year. The boundary condition along the topography of the model is a non-linear boundary condition, representing the ground surface above the sea and the varying actual groundwater recharge. Area studied: The area studied is located in Sweden, in the Northeast of the Uppland province, close to the Forsmark nuclear power plant. Water balance modelling: To obtain three significantly different groundwater recharge periods for the transient groundwater flow simulations a water balance modelling was carried out based on a statistical analysis of available hydro-meteorological data. To obtain a temporal distribution of the runoff (i.e. potential groundwater recharge), we have conducted a numerical time dependent water balance modelling. General conclusions of groundwater modelling: The discharge areas for the flow paths from great depth are given by the topography and located along valleys and lakes; the spatial and temporal extension of

Distribution and Modeled Transport of Plastic Pollution in the Great Lakes, the World's Largest Freshwater Resource

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rachel N. Cable

2017-07-01

Full Text Available Most plastic pollution originates on land. As such, freshwater bodies serve as conduits for the transport of plastic litter to the ocean. Understanding the concentrations and fluxes of plastic litter in freshwater ecosystems is critical to our understanding of the global plastic litter budget and underpins the success of future management strategies. We conducted a replicated field survey of surface plastic concentrations in four lakes in the North American Great Lakes system, the largest contiguous freshwater system on the planet. We then modeled plastic transport to resolve spatial and temporal variability of plastic distribution in one of the Great Lakes, Lake Erie. Triplicate surface samples were collected at 38 stations in mid-summer of 2014. Plastic particles >106 μm in size were quantified. Concentrations were highest near populated urban areas and their water infrastructure. In the highest concentration trawl, nearly 2 million fragments km−2 were found in the Detroit River—dwarfing previous reports of Great Lakes plastic abundances by over 4-fold. Yet, the accuracy of single trawl counts was challenged: within-station plastic abundances varied 0- to 3-fold between replicate trawls. In the smallest size class (106–1,000 μm, false positive rates of 12–24% were determined analytically for plastic vs. non-plastic, while false negative rates averaged ~18%. Though predicted to form in summer by the existing Lake Erie circulation model, our transport model did not predict a permanent surface “Lake Erie Garbage Patch” in its central basin—a trend supported by field survey data. Rather, general eastward transport with recirculation in the major basins was predicted. Further, modeled plastic residence times were drastically influenced by plastic buoyancy. Neutrally buoyant plastics—those with the same density as the ambient water—were flushed several times slower than plastics floating at the water's surface and exceeded the

Use of the GREAT-ER model to estimate mass fluxes of chemicals, carried into the Western Scheldt estuary from the Rupel basin

OpenAIRE

Schowanek, D.

2002-01-01

The poster illustrates the application of the GREAT-ER model to estimate the mass flux of chemicals carried from a river basin into an estuary. GREAT-ER (Geo-referenced Regional Exposure Assessment Tool for European Rivers) is a newly developed model (1999) for management and risk assessment of chemicals in river basins (see www.great-er.org). Recently the Rupel basin has been made available for use within GREAT-ER. This now allows to make a reliable estimation of the contribution of pollu...

A network model framework for prioritizing wetland conservation in the Great Plains

Science.gov (United States)

Albanese, Gene; Haukos, David A.

2017-01-01

ContextPlaya wetlands are the primary habitat for numerous wetland-dependent species in the Southern Great Plains of North America. Plant and wildlife populations that inhabit these wetlands are reciprocally linked through the dispersal of individuals, propagules and ultimately genes among local populations.ObjectiveTo develop and implement a framework using network models for conceptualizing, representing and analyzing potential biological flows among 48,981 spatially discrete playa wetlands in the Southern Great Plains.MethodsWe examined changes in connectivity patterns and assessed the relative importance of wetlands to maintaining these patterns by targeting wetlands for removal based on network centrality metrics weighted by estimates of habitat quality and probability of inundation.ResultsWe identified several distinct, broad-scale sub networks and phase transitions among playa wetlands in the Southern Plains. In particular, for organisms that can disperse >2 km a dense and expansive wetland sub network emerges in the Southern High Plains. This network was characterized by localized, densely connected wetland clusters at link distances (h) >2 km but <5 km and was most sensitive to changes in wetland availability (p) and configuration when h = 4 km, and p = 0.2–0.4. It transitioned to a single, large connected wetland system at broader spatial scales even when the proportion of inundated wetland was relatively low (p = 0.2).ConclusionsOur findings suggest that redundancy in the potential for broad and fine-scale movements insulates this system from damage and facilitates system-wide connectivity among populations with different dispersal capacities.

Feeding and energetics of the great scallop, Pecten maximus, through a DEB model

Science.gov (United States)

Lavaud, Romain; Flye-Sainte-Marie, Jonathan; Jean, Fred; Emmery, Antoine; Strand, Øivind; Kooijman, Sebastiaan A. L. M.

2014-11-01

We developed a full life-cycle bioenergetic model for the great scallop Pecten maximus relying on the concepts of the Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) theory. The covariation method was implemented to estimate the parameters of a standard DEB model. Such models are able to predict various metabolic processes from a food availability marker and temperature in the environment. However, suspension-feeders are likely to feed on various trophic sources, from microalgae cells to detritus. They are also able to sort and select food particles very efficiently, depending on their size, energetic value or quality. The present model includes a mechanistic description of the feeding processes, based on Kooijman's Synthesizing Unit principle which allows to deal with several food sources. Moreover we tested the hypothesis of a differential selectivity between two potential substrates (phytoplankton cell and the remaining particulate organic matter). Simulations of shell length, daily shell growth rate, dry weight and gonado-somatic index (GSI) variations were realized and compared to field data from a monitoring conducted in the Bay of Brest (Brittany, France) for six years. The model shows its capacity to efficiently reproduce all life history traits of the wild great scallops. Predicted length data were estimated to the nearest millimeter. The fit of simulated weights to observed data was very satisfactory. GSI predictions were also in accordance with observations but improvements are required to better capture the sharp increase of gametogenesis at the beginning of the year. Finally, results bring evidences that P. maximus is actually preferentially feed on living algae cells rather than on the rest of organic particles.

Evaluate prevailing climate change on Great Lakes water levels

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Islam, M.

2009-01-01

'Full text:'In this paper, results of a comprehensive water mass balance modeling for the Great Lakes against prevailing and different anticipated climate change scenarios would be presented. Modeling is done in evaluating the changes in the lake storages and then changes in the lake's water level considering present condition, uncertainty and variability of climate and hydrologic conditions in the future. Inflow-outflow and consequent changes in the five Great Lake's storages are simulated for the last 30 years and then projected to evaluate the changes in the lake storages for the next 50 years. From the predicted changes in the lake storage data, water level is calculated using mass to linear conversion equation. Modeling and analysis results are expected to be helpful in understanding the possible impacts of the climate change on the Great Lakes water environment and preparing strategic plan for the sustainable management of lake's water resources. From the recent past, it is observed that there is a depleting trend in the lakes water level and hence there is a potential threat to lake's water environment and uncertainty of the availability of quality and quantity of water for the future generations, especially against prevailing and anticipated climate changes. For this reason, it is an urgent issue of understanding and quantifying the potential impacts of climate change on the Great Lake's water levels and storages. (author)

Enamel hypoplasia in deciduous teeth of great apes: do differences in defect prevalence imply differential levels of physiological stress?

Science.gov (United States)

Lukacs, J R

1999-11-01

This paper presents new data on enamel hypoplasia in the deciduous canine teeth of great apes. The enamel defect under consideration is known as localized hypoplasia of primary canines (LHPC), and is characterized by an area of thin or missing enamel on the labial surface of deciduous canine teeth (Skinner [1986a] Am. J. Phys. Anthropol. 69:59-69). Goals of this study are: 1) to determine if significant differences in the frequency of LHPC occur among three genera of great apes, and 2) to evaluate variation in LHPC prevalence among great apes as evidence of differential physiological stress. Infant and juvenile apes with deciduous teeth were examined at the Cleveland Museum of Natural History (n = 100) and at the Smithsonian Institution, National Museum of Natural History (n = 36). Deciduous teeth were observed under oblique incandescent light, with the naked eye and with a 10x hand lens. Enamel hypoplasia was scored using Federation Dentaire International (FDI)-Defects of Dental Enamel (DDE) standards. Hypoplasias were recorded by drawing defect location and size on a dental chart, and by measuring defect size and location with Helios needlepoint dial calipers. The prevalence of LHPC is reported by genus and sex, using two approaches: 1) the frequency of affected individuals-those having one or more deciduous canine teeth scored positive for LHPC; and 2) the number of canine teeth scored positive for LHPC as a percentage of all canine teeth observed. Variation in defect size and location will be described elsewhere. Localized hypoplasia of primary canine teeth was found in 62.5% of 128 individual apes, and in 45.5% of 398 great ape deciduous canines. As in humans, LHPC is the most common form of enamel hypoplasia in deciduous teeth of great apes, while LEH is rare or absent. The distribution and pattern of expression of LHPC in great apes is similar to that described in humans: side differences are not significant, but mandibular canines exhibit the defect two to

Sector model analysis of risk on cross-jurisdictional treatment of disaster waste related to the Great East Japan Earthquake

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nagashima, Miori; Itokawa, Etsuko; Ozuka, Yohei

2012-01-01

This study addressed the controversial issue of disaster waste treatment in the reconstruction efforts following the Great East Japan Earthquake. Using the Sector Model (Matsumoto 2009), we categorized a range of actions taken in relation to the cross-jurisdictional treatment into the four sectors, government, industry, academia, and private. The analysis through this Sector Model made it possible to map the entire layout of waste treatment, inclusive of less-visible industry and academia sectors. Accordingly, we have argued that differences of risk awareness are not necessarily due to sector differences but rather depend on two aspects of the disaster waste treatment; the safety levels and the nationwide treatment of waste in Japan. We further suggest that the discrepancy in the arguments on safety levels emerged as a result of scientific under-determination and cross-jurisdictional treatment from social and/or political under-determination. (author)

The use of stereolithographic hand held models for evaluation of congenital anomalies of the great arteries.

Science.gov (United States)

Vranicar, Mark; Gregory, William; Douglas, William I; Di Sessa, Peter; Di Sessa, Thomas G

2008-01-01

Imaging anomalies of the great vessels has traditionally been accomplished using conventional biplane modalities as well as three-dimensional (3D) video displays. Our aim was to review the use of stereolithography to create 3D models to assess coarctation of the aorta and vascular rings. Twelve patients had high-resolution CT scans to evaluate anomalies of the great arteries (coarctation: 9, vascular ring: 3). Ages were 19 days to 29 years and weights were 3.3 to 139 kg. Digital dicom data from each scan were converted by a commercially available software package into a 3D digital image. The area of interest was selected and the image was exported to a 3D stereolithographic printer to create a 3D model. The models were then evaluated and the results compared to catheterization and surgical findings. All models accurately displayed the pathology investigated. All 3 of the vascular ring models correlated with surgical findings (double arch: 2, pulmonary sling: 1). Models of aortic coarctation allowed clear depictions of discrete narrowing as well as arch hypoplasia and tortuosity. Stereolithography can create realistic 3D models that accurately display aortic pathology and add important additional information, which may have implications regarding surgical and transcatheter interventions and may also be useful teaching tools for parents and students.

The GREAT3 challenge

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Miyatake, H; Mandelbaum, R; Rowe, B

2014-01-01

The GRavitational lEnsing Accuracy Testing 3 (GREAT3) challenge is an image analysis competition that aims to test algorithms to measure weak gravitational lensing from astronomical images. The challenge started in October 2013 and ends 30 April 2014. The challenge focuses on testing the impact on weak lensing measurements of realistically complex galaxy morphologies, realistic point spread function, and combination of multiple different exposures. It includes simulated ground- and space-based data. The details of the challenge are described in [1], and the challenge website and its leader board can be found at http://great3challenge.info and http://great3.projects.phys.ucl.ac.uk/leaderboard/, respectively

Using decision models to enhance investigations of individual differences in cognitive neuroscience

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Corey N White

2016-02-01

Full Text Available There is great interest in relating individual differences in cognitive processing to activation of neural systems. The general process involves relating measures of task performance like reaction times or accuracy to brain activity to identify individual differences in neural processing. One limitation of this approach is that measures like reaction times can be affected by multiple components of processing. For instance, some individuals might have higher accuracy in a memory task because they respond more cautiously, not because they have better memory. Computational models of decision making, like the drift-diffusion model and the linear ballistic accumulator model, provide a potential solution to this problem. They can be fitted to data from individual participants to disentangle the effects of the different processes driving behavior. In this sense the models can provide cleaner measures of the processes of interest, and enhance our understanding of how neural activity varies across individuals or populations. The advantages of this model-based approach to investigating individual differences in neural activity are discussed with recent examples of how this method can improve our understanding of the brain-behavior relationship.

Characteristics and Future Changes of Great Mississippi Flood Events in a Global Coupled Climate Model

Science.gov (United States)

van der Wiel, K.; Kapnick, S. B.; Vecchi, G.; Smith, J. A.

2017-12-01

The Mississippi-Missouri river catchment houses millions of people and much of the U.S. national agricultural production. Severe flooding events can therefore have large negative societal, natural and economic impacts. GFDL FLOR, a global coupled climate model (atmosphere, ocean, land, sea ice with integrated river routing module) is used to investigate the characteristics of great Mississippi floods with an average return period of 100 years. Model experiments under pre-industrial greenhouse gas forcing were conducted for 3400 years, such that the most extreme flooding events were explicitly modeled and the land and/or atmospheric causes could be investigated. It is shown that melt of snow pack and frozen sub-surface water in the Missouri and Upper Mississippi basins prime the river system, subsequently sensitizing it to above average precipitation in the Ohio and Tennessee basins. The months preceding the greatest flooding events are above average wet, leading to moist sub-surface conditions. Anomalous melt depends on the availability of frozen water in the catchment, therefore anomalous amounts of sub-surface frozen water and anomalous large snow pack in winter (Nov-Feb) make the river system susceptible for these great flooding events in spring (Feb-Apr). An additional experiment of 1200 years under transient greenhouse gas forcing (RCP4.5, 5 members) was done to investigate potential future change in flood risk. Based on a peak-over-threshold method, it is found that the number of great flooding events decreases in a warmer future. This decrease coincides with decreasing occurrence of large melt events, but is despite increasing numbers of large precipitation events. Though the model results indicate a decreasing risk for the greatest flooding events, the predictability of events might decrease in a warmer future given the changing characters of melt and precipitation.

Mechanisms of diurnal precipitation over the US Great Plains: a cloud resolving model perspective

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Myong-In; Choi, Ildae; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Schubert, Siegfried D.; Kang, In-Sik

2010-02-01

The mechanisms of summertime diurnal precipitation in the US Great Plains were examined with the two-dimensional (2D) Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) cloud-resolving model (CRM). The model was constrained by the observed large-scale background state and surface flux derived from the Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program’s Intensive Observing Period (IOP) data at the Southern Great Plains (SGP). The model, when continuously-forced by realistic surface flux and large-scale advection, simulates reasonably well the temporal evolution of the observed rainfall episodes, particularly for the strongly forced precipitation events. However, the model exhibits a deficiency for the weakly forced events driven by diurnal convection. Additional tests were run with the GCE model in order to discriminate between the mechanisms that determine daytime and nighttime convection. In these tests, the model was constrained with the same repeating diurnal variation in the large-scale advection and/or surface flux. The results indicate that it is primarily the surface heat and moisture flux that is responsible for the development of deep convection in the afternoon, whereas the large-scale upward motion and associated moisture advection play an important role in preconditioning nocturnal convection. In the nighttime, high clouds are continuously built up through their interaction and feedback with long-wave radiation, eventually initiating deep convection from the boundary layer. Without these upper-level destabilization processes, the model tends to produce only daytime convection in response to boundary layer heating. This study suggests that the correct simulation of the diurnal variation in precipitation requires that the free-atmospheric destabilization mechanisms resolved in the CRM simulation must be adequately parameterized in current general circulation models (GCMs) many of which are overly sensitive to the parameterized boundary layer

The Great Recession, unemployment and suicide.

Science.gov (United States)

Norström, Thor; Grönqvist, Hans

2015-02-01

How have suicide rates responded to the marked increase in unemployment spurred by the Great Recession? Our paper puts this issue into a wider perspective by assessing (1) whether the unemployment-suicide link is modified by the degree of unemployment protection, and (2) whether the effect on suicide of the present crisis differs from the effects of previous economic downturns. We analysed the unemployment-suicide link using time-series data for 30 countries spanning the period 1960-2012. Separate fixed-effects models were estimated for each of five welfare state regimes with different levels of unemployment protection (Eastern, Southern, Anglo-Saxon, Bismarckian and Scandinavian). We included an interaction term to capture the possible excess effect of unemployment during the Great Recession. The largest unemployment increases occurred in the welfare state regimes with the least generous unemployment protection. The unemployment effect on male suicides was statistically significant in all welfare regimes, except the Scandinavian one. The effect on female suicides was significant only in the eastern European country group. There was a significant gradient in the effects, being stronger the less generous the unemployment protection. The interaction term capturing the possible excess effect of unemployment during the financial crisis was not significant. Our findings suggest that the more generous the unemployment protection the weaker the detrimental impact on suicide of the increasing unemployment during the Great Recession. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Bayesian Averaging over Many Dynamic Model Structures with Evidence on the Great Ratios and Liquidity Trap Risk

NARCIS (Netherlands)

R.W. Strachan (Rodney); H.K. van Dijk (Herman)

2008-01-01

textabstractA Bayesian model averaging procedure is presented that makes use of a finite mixture of many model structures within the class of vector autoregressive (VAR) processes. It is applied to two empirical issues. First, stability of the Great Ratios in U.S. macro-economic time series is

MODELING ECONOMIC AND ECOLOGICAL BENEFITS OF POST-FIRE REVEGETATION IN THE GREAT BASIN

OpenAIRE

Niell, Rebecca; Englin, Jeffrey E.; Nalle, Darek

2004-01-01

This study employs a Markov chain model of vegetation dynamics to examine the economic and ecological benefits of post-fire revegetation in the Great Basin sagebrush steppe. The analysis is important because synergies between wildland fire and invasive weeds in this ecosystem are likely to result in the loss of native biodiversity, less predictable forage availability for livestock and wildlife, reduced watershed stability and water quality, and increased costs and risk associated with firefi...

The Great Recession was not so Great

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Ours, J.C.

2015-01-01

The Great Recession is characterized by a GDP-decline that was unprecedented in the past decades. This paper discusses the implications of the Great Recession analyzing labor market data from 20 OECD countries. Comparing the Great Recession with the 1980s recession it is concluded that there is a

Application of the North American Multi-Model Ensemble to seasonal water supply forecasting in the Great Lakes basin through the use of the Great Lakes Seasonal Climate Forecast Tool

Science.gov (United States)

Gronewold, A.; Apps, D.; Fry, L. M.; Bolinger, R.

2017-12-01

The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) contribution to the internationally coordinated 6-month forecast of Great Lakes water levels relies on several water supply models, including a regression model relating a coming month's water supply to past water supplies, previous months' precipitation and temperature, and forecasted precipitation and temperature. Probabilistic forecasts of precipitation and temperature depicted in the Climate Prediction Center's seasonal outlook maps are considered to be standard for use in operational forecasting for seasonal time horizons, and have provided the basis for computing a coming month's precipitation and temperature for use in the USACE water supply regression models. The CPC outlook maps are a useful forecast product offering insight into interpretation of climate models through the prognostic discussion and graphical forecasts. However, recent evolution of USACE forecast procedures to accommodate automated data transfer and manipulation offers a new opportunity for direct incorporation of ensemble climate forecast data into probabilistic outlooks of water supply using existing models that have previously been implemented in a deterministic fashion. We will present results from a study investigating the potential for applying data from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble to operational water supply forecasts. The use of NMME forecasts is facilitated by a new, publicly available, Great Lakes Seasonal Climate Forecast Tool that provides operational forecasts of monthly average temperatures and monthly total precipitation summarized for each lake basin.

Modeling brook trout presence and absence from landscape variables using four different analytical methods

Science.gov (United States)

Steen, Paul J.; Passino-Reader, Dora R.; Wiley, Michael J.

2006-01-01

As a part of the Great Lakes Regional Aquatic Gap Analysis Project, we evaluated methodologies for modeling associations between fish species and habitat characteristics at a landscape scale. To do this, we created brook trout Salvelinus fontinalis presence and absence models based on four different techniques: multiple linear regression, logistic regression, neural networks, and classification trees. The models were tested in two ways: by application to an independent validation database and cross-validation using the training data, and by visual comparison of statewide distribution maps with historically recorded occurrences from the Michigan Fish Atlas. Although differences in the accuracy of our models were slight, the logistic regression model predicted with the least error, followed by multiple regression, then classification trees, then the neural networks. These models will provide natural resource managers a way to identify habitats requiring protection for the conservation of fish species.

The great intimidators.

Science.gov (United States)

Kramer, Roderick M

2006-02-01

After Disney's Michael Eisner, Miramax's Harvey Weinstein, and Hewlett-Packard's Carly Fiorina fell from their heights of power, the business media quickly proclaimed thatthe reign of abrasive, intimidating leaders was over. However, it's premature to proclaim their extinction. Many great intimidators have done fine for a long time and continue to thrive. Their modus operandi runs counter to a lot of preconceptions about what it takes to be a good leader. They're rough, loud, and in your face. Their tactics include invading others' personal space, staging tantrums, keeping people guessing, and possessing an indisputable command of facts. But make no mistake--great intimidators are not your typical bullies. They're driven by vision, not by sheer ego or malice. Beneath their tough exteriors and sharp edges are some genuine, deep insights into human motivation and organizational behavior. Indeed, these leaders possess political intelligence, which can make the difference between paralysis and successful--if sometimes wrenching--organizational change. Like socially intelligent leaders, politically intelligent leaders are adept at sizing up others, but they notice different things. Those with social intelligence assess people's strengths and figure out how to leverage them; those with political intelligence exploit people's weaknesses and insecurities. Despite all the obvious drawbacks of working under them, great intimidators often attract the best and brightest. And their appeal goes beyond their ability to inspire high performance. Many accomplished professionals who gravitate toward these leaders want to cultivate a little "inner intimidator" of their own. In the author's research, quite a few individuals reported having positive relationships with intimidating leaders. In fact, some described these relationships as profoundly educational and even transformational. So before we throw out all the great intimidators, the author argues, we should stop to consider what

Mechanisms of Diurnal Precipitation over the United States Great Plains: A Cloud-Resolving Model Simulation

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, M.-I.; Choi, I.; Tao, W.-K.; Schubert, S. D.; Kang, I.-K.

2010-01-01

The mechanisms of summertime diurnal precipitation in the US Great Plains were examined with the two-dimensional (2D) Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) cloud-resolving model (CRM). The model was constrained by the observed large-scale background state and surface flux derived from the Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program s Intensive Observing Period (IOP) data at the Southern Great Plains (SGP). The model, when continuously-forced by realistic surface flux and large-scale advection, simulates reasonably well the temporal evolution of the observed rainfall episodes, particularly for the strongly forced precipitation events. However, the model exhibits a deficiency for the weakly forced events driven by diurnal convection. Additional tests were run with the GCE model in order to discriminate between the mechanisms that determine daytime and nighttime convection. In these tests, the model was constrained with the same repeating diurnal variation in the large-scale advection and/or surface flux. The results indicate that it is primarily the surface heat and moisture flux that is responsible for the development of deep convection in the afternoon, whereas the large-scale upward motion and associated moisture advection play an important role in preconditioning nocturnal convection. In the nighttime, high clouds are continuously built up through their interaction and feedback with long-wave radiation, eventually initiating deep convection from the boundary layer. Without these upper-level destabilization processes, the model tends to produce only daytime convection in response to boundary layer heating. This study suggests that the correct simulation of the diurnal variation in precipitation requires that the free-atmospheric destabilization mechanisms resolved in the CRM simulation must be adequately parameterized in current general circulation models (GCMs) many of which are overly sensitive to the parameterized boundary layer heating.

Tsunami Simulations in the Western Makran Using Hypothetical Heterogeneous Source Models from World's Great Earthquakes

Science.gov (United States)

Rashidi, Amin; Shomali, Zaher Hossein; Keshavarz Farajkhah, Nasser

2018-04-01

The western segment of Makran subduction zone is characterized with almost no major seismicity and no large earthquake for several centuries. A possible episode for this behavior is that this segment is currently locked accumulating energy to generate possible great future earthquakes. Taking into account this assumption, a hypothetical rupture area is considered in the western Makran to set different tsunamigenic scenarios. Slip distribution models of four recent tsunamigenic earthquakes, i.e. 2015 Chile M w 8.3, 2011 Tohoku-Oki M w 9.0 (using two different scenarios) and 2006 Kuril Islands M w 8.3, are scaled into the rupture area in the western Makran zone. The numerical modeling is performed to evaluate near-field and far-field tsunami hazards. Heterogeneity in slip distribution results in higher tsunami amplitudes. However, its effect reduces from local tsunamis to regional and distant tsunamis. Among all considered scenarios for the western Makran, only a similar tsunamigenic earthquake to the 2011 Tohoku-Oki event can re-produce a significant far-field tsunami and is considered as the worst case scenario. The potential of a tsunamigenic source is dominated by the degree of slip heterogeneity and the location of greatest slip on the rupture area. For the scenarios with similar slip patterns, the mean slip controls their relative power. Our conclusions also indicate that along the entire Makran coasts, the southeastern coast of Iran is the most vulnerable area subjected to tsunami hazard.

Tsunami Simulations in the Western Makran Using Hypothetical Heterogeneous Source Models from World's Great Earthquakes

Science.gov (United States)

Rashidi, Amin; Shomali, Zaher Hossein; Keshavarz Farajkhah, Nasser

2018-03-01

The western segment of Makran subduction zone is characterized with almost no major seismicity and no large earthquake for several centuries. A possible episode for this behavior is that this segment is currently locked accumulating energy to generate possible great future earthquakes. Taking into account this assumption, a hypothetical rupture area is considered in the western Makran to set different tsunamigenic scenarios. Slip distribution models of four recent tsunamigenic earthquakes, i.e. 2015 Chile M w 8.3, 2011 Tohoku-Oki M w 9.0 (using two different scenarios) and 2006 Kuril Islands M w 8.3, are scaled into the rupture area in the western Makran zone. The numerical modeling is performed to evaluate near-field and far-field tsunami hazards. Heterogeneity in slip distribution results in higher tsunami amplitudes. However, its effect reduces from local tsunamis to regional and distant tsunamis. Among all considered scenarios for the western Makran, only a similar tsunamigenic earthquake to the 2011 Tohoku-Oki event can re-produce a significant far-field tsunami and is considered as the worst case scenario. The potential of a tsunamigenic source is dominated by the degree of slip heterogeneity and the location of greatest slip on the rupture area. For the scenarios with similar slip patterns, the mean slip controls their relative power. Our conclusions also indicate that along the entire Makran coasts, the southeastern coast of Iran is the most vulnerable area subjected to tsunami hazard.

Gender and Personality Differences in Response to Social Stressors in Great Tits (Parus major.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Esther van der Meer

Full Text Available In response to stressors, animals can increase the activity of the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenocortical axis, resulting in elevated glucocorticoid concentrations. An increase in glucocorticoids results in an increase in heterophils and a decrease in lymphocytes, which ratio (H/L-ratio is an indicator of stress in birds. The physiological response to a stressor can depend on individual characteristics, like dominance rank, sex and personality. Although the isolated effects of these characteristics on the response to a stressor have been well studied, little is known about the response in relation to a combination of these characteristics. In this study we investigate the relationship between social stress, dominance rank, sex and exploratory behaviour as a validated operational measure of personality in great tits (Parus major. Great tits show consistent individual differences in behaviour and physiology in response to stressors, and exploratory behaviour can be classified as fast or slow exploring. We group-housed four birds, two fast and two slow explorers, of the same sex that were previously singly housed, in an aviary and compared the H/L-ratio, lymphocyte and heterophil count before and after group housing. After experiencing the social context all birds increased their H/L-ratio and heterophil count. Females showed a stronger increase in H/L-ratio and heterophil count than males, which seemed to be related to a higher number of agonistic interactions compared to males. Dominance rank and exploration type did not affect the H/L-ratio or heterophil count. Contrary to our expectations, all birds increased their lymphocyte count. However, this increase was slower for fast than for slow explorers. Our study suggests that personality and sex related differences, but not dominance rank, are associated with changes in an individual's physiological response due to a social context.

Differences in the Nonverbal Requests of Great Apes and Human Infants

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van der Goot, M. H.; Tomasello, Michael; Liszkowski, Ulf

2014-01-01

This study investigated how great apes and human infants use imperative pointing to request objects. In a series of three experiments (infants, N = 44; apes, N = 12), subjects were given the opportunity to either point to a desired object from a distance or else to approach closer and request it

Comparison of DNA strand-break simulated with different DNA models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Xie, Wenzhang; Li, Junli; Qiu, Rui; Yan, Congchong; Zeng, Zhi; Li, Chunyan

2013-01-01

Full text of the publication follows. In Monte Carlo simulation of DNA damage, the geometric model of DNA is of great importance. To study the influence of DNA model on the simulation of DNA damage, three DNA models were created in this paper. They were a volume model and two atomic models with different parameters. Direct DNA strand-break induced by low-energy electrons were simulated respectively with the three models. The results show that most of the energy depositions in the DNA segments do not lead to strand-breaks. The simple single strand-break (SSB) tends to be the predominant damage type, and the contribution of complex double strand-break (DSB) to the total DSB cannot be neglected. Among the yields of all the three DNA target models applied here, the yields of the volume model are the highest, the yields of the atomic model with double van der Waals radii (r) take the second place, whereas the yields of the atomic model with single r come last. On average, the ratios of SSB yields are approximately equivalent to the corresponding ratios of the models' volume. However, there seems to be no clear relationship between the DSB yields and the models' volume. (authors)

Fusing MODIS with Landsat 8 data to downscale weekly normalized difference vegetation index estimates for central Great Basin rangelands, USA

Science.gov (United States)

Boyte, Stephen; Wylie, Bruce K.; Rigge, Matthew B.; Dahal, Devendra

2018-01-01

Data fused from distinct but complementary satellite sensors mitigate tradeoffs that researchers make when selecting between spatial and temporal resolutions of remotely sensed data. We integrated data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor aboard the Terra satellite and the Operational Land Imager sensor aboard the Landsat 8 satellite into four regression-tree models and applied those data to a mapping application. This application produced downscaled maps that utilize the 30-m spatial resolution of Landsat in conjunction with daily acquisitions of MODIS normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) that are composited and temporally smoothed. We produced four weekly, atmospherically corrected, and nearly cloud-free, downscaled 30-m synthetic MODIS NDVI predictions (maps) built from these models. Model results were strong with R2 values ranging from 0.74 to 0.85. The correlation coefficients (r ≥ 0.89) were strong for all predictions when compared to corresponding original MODIS NDVI data. Downscaled products incorporated into independently developed sagebrush ecosystem models yielded mixed results. The visual quality of the downscaled 30-m synthetic MODIS NDVI predictions were remarkable when compared to the original 250-m MODIS NDVI. These 30-m maps improve knowledge of dynamic rangeland seasonal processes in the central Great Basin, United States, and provide land managers improved resource maps.

State Government Revenue Recovery from the Great Recession

OpenAIRE

James Alm; David L. Sjoquist

2014-01-01

The "Great Recession" lasted from December 2007 to June 2009, and it wreaked havoc on the revenues of state (and local) governments. While the U.S. economy has improved since the end of the Great Recession, state government revenues have in most cases still not completely recovered. We use various indicators to measure how different states have -- or have not -- recovered in the aftermath of the Great Recession, and we also attempt to explain why these different patterns of recovery have emer...

'Great Power Style' in China's Economic Policy

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jiang, Yang

2011-01-01

China’s ascendance attracts concern, even though Beijing claims to be a responsible great power and tries to demonstrate its ‘great power style’ in economic diplomacy. This article therefore discusses the following questions: to what extent does the current notion and practice of Chinese ‘great...... power style’ in economic diplomacy comply with, or differ from, the criteria of benign hegemony; and what are the major constraining factors? Conceptually, China’s ‘great power style’ is rooted in ancient Chinese political philosophy and institution, but it highly resembles the Western notion of benign...

Differences in the Nonverbal Requests of Great Apes and Human Infants

Science.gov (United States)

van der Goot, Marloes H.; Tomasello, Michael; Liszkowski, Ulf

2014-01-01

This study investigated how great apes and human infants use imperative pointing to request objects. In a series of three experiments (infants, N = 44; apes, N = 12), subjects were given the opportunity to either point to a desired object from a distance or else to approach closer and request it proximally. The apes always approached close to the…

Modeling of periodic great earthquakes on the San Andreas fault: Effects of nonlinear crustal rheology

Science.gov (United States)

Reches, Ze'ev; Schubert, Gerald; Anderson, Charles

1994-01-01

We analyze the cycle of great earthquakes along the San Andreas fault with a finite element numerical model of deformation in a crust with a nonlinear viscoelastic rheology. The viscous component of deformation has an effective viscosity that depends exponentially on the inverse absolute temperature and nonlinearity on the shear stress; the elastic deformation is linear. Crustal thickness and temperature are constrained by seismic and heat flow data for California. The models are for anti plane strain in a 25-km-thick crustal layer having a very long, vertical strike-slip fault; the crustal block extends 250 km to either side of the fault. During the earthquake cycle that lasts 160 years, a constant plate velocity v(sub p)/2 = 17.5 mm yr is applied to the base of the crust and to the vertical end of the crustal block 250 km away from the fault. The upper half of the fault is locked during the interseismic period, while its lower half slips at the constant plate velocity. The locked part of the fault is moved abruptly 2.8 m every 160 years to simulate great earthquakes. The results are sensitive to crustal rheology. Models with quartzite-like rheology display profound transient stages in the velocity, displacement, and stress fields. The predicted transient zone extends about 3-4 times the crustal thickness on each side of the fault, significantly wider than the zone of deformation in elastic models. Models with diabase-like rheology behave similarly to elastic models and exhibit no transient stages. The model predictions are compared with geodetic observations of fault-parallel velocities in northern and central California and local rates of shear strain along the San Andreas fault. The observations are best fit by models which are 10-100 times less viscous than a quartzite-like rheology. Since the lower crust in California is composed of intermediate to mafic rocks, the present result suggests that the in situ viscosity of the crustal rock is orders of magnitude

A New Keynesian Perspective on the Great Recession

OpenAIRE

Peter N. Ireland

2010-01-01

With an estimated New Keynesian model, this paper compares the "Great Recession" of 2007-09 to its two immediate predecessors in 1990-91 and 2001. The model attributes all three downturns to a similar mix of aggregate demand and supply disturbances. The most recent series of adverse shocks lasted longer and became more severe, however, prolonging and deepening the Great Recession. In addition, the zero lower bound on the nominal interest rate prevented monetary policy from stabilizing the US ...

Why Did People Move During the Great Recession? The Role of Economics in Migration Decisions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Brian L. Levy

2017-04-01

Full Text Available Labor migration offers an important mechanism to reallocate workers when there are regional differences in employment conditions. Whereas conventional wisdom suggests migration rates should increase during recessions as workers move out of areas that are hit hardest, initial evidence suggested that overall migration rates declined during the Great Recession, despite large regional differences in unemployment and growth rates. In this paper we use data from the American Community Survey to analyze internal migration trends before and during the economic downturn. First, we find only a modest decline in the odds of adults leaving distressed labor market areas during the Great Recession, which may result in part from challenges related to the housing price crash. Second, we estimate conditional logit models of destination choice for individuals who migrate across labor market areas; we find a substantial effect of economic factors such as labor demand, unemployment, and housing values. We also estimate latent class conditional logit models that test whether there is heterogeneity in preferences for destination characteristics among migrants. Over all, the latent class models suggest that roughly equal percentages of migrants were motivated by economic factors before and during the Great Recession. We conclude that fears of dramatic declines in labor migration seem to be unsubstantiated.

Natural gas is not electricity. Switzerland is not Great Britain

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Weinmann, H. P.

1999-01-01

The production and procurement of natural gas and electricity are governed by different criteria. The electricity industry model cannot simply be transposed to the Swiss gas market after liberalization. Moreover, the structure of the Swiss gas industry is not the same as that of the electricity sector. For similar reasons, the privatization model adopted for the United Kingdom gas industry is not applicable to Switzerland. Competition already exists on the heating market, while procurement costs do not vary greatly because of the investments involved. Big price cuts cannot therefore be anticipated when the Swiss gas market is liberalized. (author)

What Great Teachers Do Differently: Seventeen Things That Matter Most. Second Edition

Science.gov (United States)

Whitaker, Todd

2012-01-01

In the second edition of this renowned book, you will find pearls of wisdom, heartfelt advice, and inspiration from one of the nation's leading authorities on staff motivation, teacher leadership, and principal effectiveness. With wit and understanding, Todd Whitaker describes the beliefs, behaviors, attitudes, and interactions of great teachers…

Natural resource damage assessment models for Great Lakes, coastal, and marine environments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

French, D.P.; Reed, M.

1993-01-01

A computer model of the physical fates, biological effects, and economic damages resulting from releases of oil and other hazardous materials has been developed by Applied Science Associates to be used in Type A natural resource damage assessments under the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act of 1980 (CERCLA). Natural resource damage assessment models for great lakes environments and for coastal and marine environments will become available. A coupled geographical information system allows gridded representation of complex coastal boundaries, variable bathymetry, shoreline types, and multiple biological habitats. The physical and biological models are three dimensional. Direct mortality from toxic concentrations and oiling, impacts of habitat loss, and food web losses are included in the model. Estimation of natural resource damages is based both on the lost value of injured resources and on the costs of restoring or replacing those resources. The models are implemented on a personal computer, with a VGA graphical user interface. Following public review, the models will become a formal part of the US regulatory framework. The models are programmed in a modular and generic fashion, to facilitate transportability and application to new areas. The model has several major components. Physical fates and biological effects submodels estimate impacts or injury resulting from a spill. The hydrodynamic submodel calculates currents that transport contaminant(s) or organisms. The compensable value submodel values injuries to help assess damages. The restoration submodel determines what restoration actions will most cost-effectively reduce injuries as measured by compensable values. Injury and restoration costs are assessed for each of a series of habitats (environments) affected by the spill. Environmental, chemical, and biological databases supply required information to the model for computing fates and effects (injury)

The origin of 'Great Walls'

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shandarin, Sergei F.

2009-01-01

A new semi-analytical model that explains the formation and sizes of the 'great walls' - the largest structures observed in the universe is suggested. Although the basis of the model is the Zel'dovich approximation it has been used in a new way very different from the previous studies. Instead of traditional approach that evaluates the nonlinear density field it has been utilized for identification of the regions in Lagrangian space that after the mapping to real or redshift space (depending on the kind of structure is studied) end up in the regions where shell-crossing occurs. The set of these regions in Lagrangian space form the progenitor of the structure and after the mapping it determines the pattern of the structure in real or redshift space. The particle trajectories have crossed in such regions and the mapping is no longer unique there. The progenitor after mapping makes only one stream in the multi-stream flow regions therefore it does not comprise all the mass. Nevertheless, it approximately retains the shape of the structure. The progenitor of the structure in real space is determined by the linear density field along with two non-Gaussian fields derived from the initial potential. Its shape in Eulerian space is also affected by the displacement field. The progenitor of the structure in redshift space also depends on these fields but in addition it is strongly affected by two anisotropic fields that determine the pattern of great walls as well as their huge sizes. All the fields used in the mappings are derived from the linear potential smoothed at the current scale of nonlinearity which is R nl = 2.7 h −1 Mpc for the adopted parameters of the ΛCDM universe normalized to σ 8 = 0.8. The model predicts the existence of walls with sizes significantly greater than 500 h −1 Mpc that may be found in sufficiently large redshift surveys

Soil Erosion Research Based on USLE in Great Khinggan

OpenAIRE

Wei Li; Wenyi Fan; Xuegang Mao

2014-01-01

Based on the amended model of USLE universal soil loss equation and GIS technology, combined with the natural geographical features of Great Khinggan area, it has conducted quantitative analysis of the factor in Soil loss equation. Uses 2011 years TM/ETM images classification are land uses/cover type figure, combination Great Khinggan area Digital Elevation Model (DEM) and soil type distribution figure and research regional rainfall information, we gets all factors values of space distributio...

Did the Great Recession increase suicides in the USA? Evidence from an interrupted time-series analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Harper, Sam; Bruckner, Tim A

2017-07-01

Research suggests that the Great Recession of 2007-2009 led to nearly 5000 excess suicides in the United States. However, prior work has not accounted for seasonal patterning and unique suicide trends by age and gender. We calculated monthly suicide rates from 1999 to 2013 for men and women aged 15 and above. Suicide rates before the Great Recession were used to predict the rate during and after the Great Recession. Death rates for each age-gender group were modeled using Poisson regression with robust variance, accounting for seasonal and nonlinear suicide trajectories. There were 56,658 suicide deaths during the Great Recession. Age- and gender-specific suicide trends before the recession demonstrated clear seasonal and nonlinear trajectories. Our models predicted 57,140 expected suicide deaths, leading to 482 fewer observed than expected suicides (95% confidence interval -2079, 943). We found little evidence to suggest that the Great Recession interrupted existing trajectories of suicide rates. Suicide rates were already increasing before the Great Recession for middle-aged men and women. Future studies estimating the impact of recessions on suicide should account for the diverse and unique suicide trajectories of different social groups. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Simulating the Evolution of Fluid Underpressures in the Great Plains, by Incorporation of Tectonic Uplift and Tilting, with a Groundwater Flow Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Amjad M. J. Umari

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Underpressures (subhydrostatic heads in the Paleozoic units underlying the Great Plains of North America are a consequence of Cenozoic uplift of the area. Based on tectonostratigraphic data, we have developed a cumulative uplift history with superimposed periods of deposition and erosion for the Great Plains for the period from 40 Ma to the present. Uplift, deposition, and erosion on an 800 km geologic cross-section extending from northeast Colorado to eastern Kansas is represented in nine time-stepped geohydrologic models. Sequential solution of the two-dimensional diffusion equation reveals the evolution of hydraulic head and underpressure in a changing structural environment after 40 Ma, culminating in an approximate match with the measured present-day values. The modeled and measured hydraulic head values indicate that underpressures increase to the west. The 2 to 0 Ma model indicates that the present-day hydraulic head values of the Paleozoic units have not reached steady state. This result is significant because it indicates that present-day hydraulic heads are not at equilibrium, and underpressures will increase in the future. The pattern uncovered by the series of nine MODFLOW models is of increased underpressures with time. Overall, the models indicate that tectonic uplift explains the development of underpressures in the Great Plains.

Observation of thermal plumes from submerged discharges in the Great Lakes and their implications for modeling and monitoring

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ditmars, J.D.; Paddock, R.A.; Frigo, A.A.

1977-01-01

Measurements of thermal plumes from submerged discharges of power plant cooling waters into the Great Lakes provide the opportunity to view the mixing processes at prototype scales and to observe the effects of the ambient environment on those processes. Examples of thermal plume behavior in Great Lakes' ambient environments are presented to demonstrate the importance of measurements of the detailed structure of the ambient environment, as well as of the plumes, for interpretation of prototype data for modeling and monitoring purposes. The examples are drawn from studies by Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) at the Zion Nuclear PowerStation and the D. C. Cook Nuclear Plant on Lake Michigan and at the J. A. FitzPatrick Nuclear Power Plant on Lake Ontario. These studies included measurements of water temperatures from a moving boat which provide a quasi-synoptic view of the three-dimensional temperature structure of the thermal plume and ambient water environment. Additional measurements of water velocities, which are made with continuously recording, moored, and profiling current meters, and of wind provide data on the detailed structure of the ambient environment. The detailed structure of the ambient environment, in terms of current, current shear, variable winds, and temperature stratification, often influence greatly thermal plume behavior. Although predictive model techniques and monitoring objectives often ignore the detailed aspects of the ambient environment, useful interpretation of prototype data for model evaluation or calibration and monitoring purposes requires detailed measurement of the ambient environment. Examination of prototype thermal plume data indicates that, in several instances, attention to only the gross characteristics of the ambient environment can be misleading and could result in significant errors in model calibration and extrapolation of data bases gathered in monitoring observations

Composition of physiologically important fatty acids in great tits differs between urban and rural populations on a seasonal basis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Martin N Andersson

2015-08-01

Full Text Available Fatty acids (FA have crucial functions in animals, affecting e.g. inflammatory responses, thermoregulation, and cell membrane fluidity. Diet and ambient temperature affect animals’ FA composition, which, in turn, may influence these physiological processes. Great tits (Parus major −common in both urban and rural habitats− are mainly granivorous during winter and insectivorous during summer. These diets show pronounced differences in FA composition. Such variation has context-dependent effects on physiology, because the thermal environment, food availability, and levels of pro-inflammatory environmental stressors differ between urban and rural areas. Thus, we investigated how great tit plasma FA composition varied between urban and rural habitats and across seasons. Eight FAs differed between urban and rural birds. Among these, arachidonic acid (omega (ω-6 polyunsaturated FA with thermoregulatory and pro-inflammatory properties was more abundant in urban than rural birds in winter, whereas ω-3 FAs with anti-inflammatory properties were more abundant in rural birds. The difference in pro- and anti-inflammatory FAs suggest that the negative health effects that urban birds suffer from being exposed to higher levels of pollutants might be enhanced by an elevated inflammatory response. Eight FAs differed between winter and summer birds. This variation reflected the diet change: FAs common in seeds, e.g. oleic- and linoleic acid, were present in higher amounts in winter birds, whereas ω-3 polyunsaturated FAs that are common in caterpillars were more abundant in summer birds. Overall, a larger seasonal variation was seen among the urban birds. This study is the first to reveal a difference in FA composition between urban and rural populations for all animals studied to date. Future experiments should unravel the physiological implications of this variation, and ultimately, link its effects to fitness of animals with different physiological and

Thirty years of great ape gestures.

Science.gov (United States)

Tomasello, Michael; Call, Josep

2018-02-21

We and our colleagues have been doing studies of great ape gestural communication for more than 30 years. Here we attempt to spell out what we have learned. Some aspects of the process have been reliably established by multiple researchers, for example, its intentional structure and its sensitivity to the attentional state of the recipient. Other aspects are more controversial. We argue here that it is a mistake to assimilate great ape gestures to the species-typical displays of other mammals by claiming that they are fixed action patterns, as there are many differences, including the use of attention-getters. It is also a mistake, we argue, to assimilate great ape gestures to human gestures by claiming that they are used referentially and declaratively in a human-like manner, as apes' "pointing" gesture has many limitations and they do not gesture iconically. Great ape gestures constitute a unique form of primate communication with their own unique qualities.

Ecological investigations on plant associations in differently disturbed heavy-metal contaminated soils of Great Britain

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ernst, W

1968-01-01

In different areas of Great Britain comparing ecological studies have been made on disturbed and undisturbed heavy metal contaminated soils. In Grizedale (Pennine), sampling of an undisturbed transect having high levels of major nutrients showed marked differentiation within a small area, only related to the plant available levels of zinc, copper, and lead. However, studies on disturbed heavy metal soils and spoil-heaps revealed a low water capacity and a low supply of major nutrients, particularly of N and P. These suggest that here both the enrichment of heavy metals and the considerable decrease of other nutrients are important in determining the heavy metal vegetation, and in maintaining it against other species. The quantity of zinc in plants is not related to the total or plant-available amount of zinc in soil, but confirmed physiological experiments on the influence of phosphorus and different zinc compounds (complexed or inorganic) on the uptake and distribution of zinc in Thlaspi alpestre and Minnartia rerum. Also an antagonism between lead and copper was revealed. 24 references.

Cross-scale modelling of alien and native vascular plant species richness in Great Britain: where is geodiversity information most relevant?

Science.gov (United States)

Bailey, Joseph; Field, Richard; Boyd, Doreen

2016-04-01

We assess the scale-dependency of the relationship between biodiversity and novel geodiversity information by studying spatial patterns of native and alien (archaeophytes and neophytes) vascular plant species richness at varying spatial scales across Great Britain. Instead of using a compound geodiversity metric, we study individual geodiversity components (GDCs) to advance our understanding of which aspects of 'geodiversity' are most important and at what scale. Terrestrial native (n = 1,490) and alien (n = 1,331) vascular plant species richness was modelled across the island of Great Britain at two grain sizes and several extent radii. Various GDCs (landforms, hydrology, geology) were compiled from existing national datasets and automatically extracted landform coverage information (e.g. hollows, valleys, peaks), the latter using a digital elevation model (DEM) and geomorphometric techniques. More traditional predictors of species richness (climate, widely-used topography metrics, land cover diversity, and human population) were also incorporated. Boosted Regression Tree (BRT) models were produced at all grain sizes and extents for each species group and the dominant predictors were assessed. Models with and without geodiversity data were compared. Overarching patterns indicated a clear dominance of geodiversity information at the smallest study extent (12.5km radius) and finest grain size (1x1km), which substantially decreased for each increase in extent as the contribution of climatic variables increased. The contribution of GDCs to biodiversity models was chiefly driven by landform information from geomorphometry, but hydrology (rivers and lakes), and to a lesser extent materials (soil, superficial deposits, and geology), were important, also. GDCs added significantly to vascular plant biodiversity models in Great Britain, independently of widely-used topographic metrics, particularly for native species. The wider consideration of geodiversity alongside

Climate change effects on wildland fire risk in the Northeastern and Great Lakes states predicted by a downscaled multi-model ensemble

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kerr, Gaige Hunter; DeGaetano, Arthur T.; Stoof, Cathelijne R.; Ward, Daniel

2018-01-01

This study is among the first to investigate wildland fire risk in the Northeastern and the Great Lakes states under a changing climate. We use a multi-model ensemble (MME) of regional climate models from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) together with the Canadian Forest

THE THIRD GRAVITATIONAL LENSING ACCURACY TESTING (GREAT3) CHALLENGE HANDBOOK

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mandelbaum, Rachel; Kannawadi, Arun; Simet, Melanie; Rowe, Barnaby; Kacprzak, Tomasz; Bosch, James; Miyatake, Hironao; Chang, Chihway; Gill, Mandeep; Courbin, Frederic; Jarvis, Mike; Armstrong, Bob; Lackner, Claire; Leauthaud, Alexie; Nakajima, Reiko; Rhodes, Jason; Zuntz, Joe; Bridle, Sarah; Coupon, Jean; Dietrich, Jörg P.

2014-01-01

The GRavitational lEnsing Accuracy Testing 3 (GREAT3) challenge is the third in a series of image analysis challenges, with a goal of testing and facilitating the development of methods for analyzing astronomical images that will be used to measure weak gravitational lensing. This measurement requires extremely precise estimation of very small galaxy shape distortions, in the presence of far larger intrinsic galaxy shapes and distortions due to the blurring kernel caused by the atmosphere, telescope optics, and instrumental effects. The GREAT3 challenge is posed to the astronomy, machine learning, and statistics communities, and includes tests of three specific effects that are of immediate relevance to upcoming weak lensing surveys, two of which have never been tested in a community challenge before. These effects include many novel aspects including realistically complex galaxy models based on high-resolution imaging from space; a spatially varying, physically motivated blurring kernel; and a combination of multiple different exposures. To facilitate entry by people new to the field, and for use as a diagnostic tool, the simulation software for the challenge is publicly available, though the exact parameters used for the challenge are blinded. Sample scripts to analyze the challenge data using existing methods will also be provided. See http://great3challenge.info and http://great3.projects.phys.ucl.ac.uk/leaderboard/ for more information

Evaluating hourly rainfall characteristics over the U.S. Great Plains in dynamically downscaled climate model simulations using NASA-Unified WRF

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Huikyo; Waliser, Duane E.; Ferraro, Robert; Iguchi, Takamichi; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.; Tian, Baijun; Loikith, Paul C.; Wright, Daniel B.

2017-07-01

Accurate simulation of extreme precipitation events remains a challenge in climate models. This study utilizes hourly precipitation data from ground stations and satellite instruments to evaluate rainfall characteristics simulated by the NASA-Unified Weather Research and Forecasting (NU-WRF) regional climate model at horizontal resolutions of 4, 12, and 24 km over the Great Plains of the United States. We also examined the sensitivity of the simulated precipitation to different spectral nudging approaches and the cumulus parameterizations. The rainfall characteristics in the observations and simulations were defined as an hourly diurnal cycle of precipitation and a joint probability distribution function (JPDF) between duration and peak intensity of precipitation events over the Great Plains in summer. We calculated a JPDF for each data set and the overlapping area between observed and simulated JPDFs to measure the similarity between the two JPDFs. Comparison of the diurnal precipitation cycles between observations and simulations does not reveal the added value of high-resolution simulations. However, the performance of NU-WRF simulations measured by the JPDF metric strongly depends on horizontal resolution. The simulation with the highest resolution of 4 km shows the best agreement with the observations in simulating duration and intensity of wet spells. Spectral nudging does not affect the JPDF significantly. The effect of cumulus parameterizations on the JPDFs is considerable but smaller than that of horizontal resolution. The simulations with lower resolutions of 12 and 24 km show reasonable agreement but only with the high-resolution observational data that are aggregated into coarse resolution and spatially averaged.

Great Apes

Science.gov (United States)

Sleeman, Jonathan M.; Cerveny, Shannon

2014-01-01

Anesthesia of great apes is often necessary to conduct diagnostic analysis, provide therapeutics, facilitate surgical procedures, and enable transport and translocation for conservation purposes. Due to the stress of remote delivery injection of anesthetic agents, recent studies have focused on oral delivery and/or transmucosal absorption of preanesthetic and anesthetic agents. Maintenance of the airway and provision of oxygen is an important aspect of anesthesia in great ape species. The provision of analgesia is an important aspect of the anesthesia protocol for any procedure involving painful stimuli. Opioids and nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) are often administered alone, or in combination to provide multi-modal analgesia. There is increasing conservation management of in situ great ape populations, which has resulted in the development of field anesthesia techniques for free-living great apes for the purposes of translocation, reintroduction into the wild, and clinical interventions.

Using Music to Teach about the Great Depression

Science.gov (United States)

Stevens, Robert L.; Fogel, Jared A.

2007-01-01

The Great Depression is typically taught through history textbooks, but the music of this time allows students to learn about this era through different perspectives. The Great Depression witnessed many musical styles--from the light heartedness of popular music to the sadness of the blues, gospel, which offered inspiration, to the tension between…

Variation with age of anisotropy under oceans, from great circle surface waves

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Journet, B.; Jobert, N.

1982-01-01

Global great circle measurements of regionalized mantle Love wave phase velocities are interpreted in terms of regional models. The same study had been made by J. J. Leveque (1980) for Rayleigh waves, and the resulting models for the two oceanic regions of different ages are used as a basis for comparison: the observed Love wave dispersion cannot be explained with these models if isotropic. The models obtained by inversion of Love wave data are compared with the models mentioned; the discrepancy appearing in the 250 km depth range between the velocities β/sub H/ and β/sub V/ of respectively SH and SV waves is indicative of polarization anisotropy. Moreover, we put forward a significant variation from young to old oceans: the difference between β/sub H/, and β/sub V/ is of the order of 1% for the former, compared to 3% for the latter. This variation can bring information about the behaviour of upper mantle materials in connection with the motion of oceanic plates

The Model of Unification and the Model of Diversification of Public School Teachers' Continuing Professional Development in Great Britain, Canada and the USA

Science.gov (United States)

Mukan, Nataliya; Myskiv, Iryna; Kravets, Svitlana

2016-01-01

In the article the theoretical framework of public school teachers' continuing professional development (CPD) in Great Britain, Canada and the USA has been presented. The main objectives have been defined as theoretical analysis of scientific and pedagogical literature, which highlights different aspects of the problem under research; presentation…

Great ape origins of personality maturation and sex differences: a study of orangutans and chimpanzees.

Science.gov (United States)

Weiss, Alexander; King, James E

2015-04-01

Human personality development evinces increased emotional stability, prosocial tendencies, and responsibility. One hypothesis offered to explain this pattern is Social-Investment Theory, which posits that culturally defined social roles, including marriage and employment, are responsible for the increased maturity. Alternatively, Five-Factor Theory emphasizes the role of biological factors, such as those governing physical development, which may predate the emergence of humans. Five-Factor Theory, unlike Social-Investment Theory, predicts that all or some of the human personality developmental trends should be present in great apes, our closest evolutionary relatives. To test this prediction and to better understand the evolutionary origins of sex differences, we examined age and sex differences in the chimpanzee and orangutan personality domains Extraversion, Dominance, Neuroticism, and Agreeableness. We also examined the Activity and Gregariousness facets of Extraversion and the orangutan Intellect domain. Extraversion and Neuroticism declined across age groups in both species, in common with humans. A significant interaction indicated that Agreeableness declined in orangutans but increased in chimpanzees, as it does in humans, though this may reflect differences in how Agreeableness was defined in each species. Significant interactions indicated that male chimpanzees, unlike male orangutans, displayed higher Neuroticism scores than females and maintained higher levels of Activity and Dominance into old age than female chimpanzees, male orangutans, and female orangutans. Personality-age correlations were comparable across orangutans and chimpanzees and were similar to those reported in human studies. Sex differences were stronger in chimpanzees than in humans or orangutans. These findings support Five-Factor Theory, suggest the role of gene-culture coevolution in shaping personality development, and suggest that sex differences evolved independently in different

Modelling individual difference in visual categorization.

Science.gov (United States)

Shen, Jianhong; Palmeri, Thomas J

Recent years has seen growing interest in understanding, characterizing, and explaining individual differences in visual cognition. We focus here on individual differences in visual categorization. Categorization is the fundamental visual ability to group different objects together as the same kind of thing. Research on visual categorization and category learning has been significantly informed by computational modeling, so our review will focus both on how formal models of visual categorization have captured individual differences and how individual difference have informed the development of formal models. We first examine the potential sources of individual differences in leading models of visual categorization, providing a brief review of a range of different models. We then describe several examples of how computational models have captured individual differences in visual categorization. This review also provides a bit of an historical perspective, starting with models that predicted no individual differences, to those that captured group differences, to those that predict true individual differences, and to more recent hierarchical approaches that can simultaneously capture both group and individual differences in visual categorization. Via this selective review, we see how considerations of individual differences can lead to important theoretical insights into how people visually categorize objects in the world around them. We also consider new directions for work examining individual differences in visual categorization.

Great Lakes Restoration Initiative Great Lakes Mussel Watch(2009-2014)

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Following the inception of the Great Lakes Restoration Initiative (GLRI) to address the significant environmental issues plaguing the Great Lakes region, the...

Type A natural resource damage assessment models for Great Lakes environments (NRDAM/GLE) and coastal and marine environments (NRDAM/CME)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

French, D.P.; Reed, M.

1993-01-01

A computer model of the physical fates, biological effects, and economic damages resulting from releases of oil and other hazardous materials has been developed by ASA to be used in Type A natural resource damage assessments under the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act of 1980 (CERCLA). Natural Resource Damage Assessment Models for Great Lakes Environments (NRDAM/GLE) and for Coastal and Marine Environments (NRDAM/GLE) and for Coastal and Marine Environments (NRDAM/CME) will become available. These models will also support NOAA's damage assessment regulations under the Oil Pollution Act of 1990. The physical and biological models are three-dimensional. Direct mortality from toxic concentrations and oiling, impacts of habitat loss, and food web losses are included in the model. Estimation of natural resource damages is based both on the lost value of injured resources and on the costs for restoration or replacement of those resources. A coupled geographical information system (GIS) allows gridded representation of complex coastal boundaries, variable bathymetry, shoreline types, and multiple biological habitats. The models contain environmental, geographical, chemical, toxicological, biological, restoration and economic databases with the necessary information to estimate damages. Chemical and toxicological data are included for about 470 chemicals and oils. Biological data are unique to 77 coastal and marine plus 11 Great Lakes provinces, and to habitat type. Restoration and economic valuations are also regionally specific

Seasonal patterns in growth, blood consumption, and effects on hosts by parasitic-phase sea lampreys in the Great Lakes: an individual-based model approach

Science.gov (United States)

Madenjian, Charles P.; Cochran, Philip A.; Bergstedt, Roger A.

2003-01-01

An individual-based model (IBM) was developed for sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus) populations in the Laurentian Great Lakes. The IBM was then calibrated to observed growth, by season, for sea lampreys in northern Lake Huron under two different water temperature regimes: a regime experienced by Seneca-strain lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) and a regime experienced by Marquettestrain lake trout. Modeling results indicated that seasonal blood consumption under the Seneca regime was very similar to that under the Marquette regime. Simulated mortality of lake trout directly due to blood removal by sea lampreys occurred at nearly twice the rate during August and September under the Marquette regime than under the Seneca regime. However, cumulative sea lamprey-induced mortality on lake trout over the entire duration of the sea lamprey's parasitic phase was only 7% higher for the Marquette regime compared with the Seneca regime. Thus, these modeling results indicated that the strain composition of the host (lake trout) population was not important in determining total number of lake trout deaths or total blood consumption attributable to the sea lamprey population, given the sea lamprey growth pattern. Regardless of water temperature regime, both blood consumption rate by sea lampreys and rate of sea lamprey-induced mortality on lake trout peaked in late October. Elevated blood consumption in late October appeared to be unrelated to changes in water temperature. The IBM approach should prove useful in optimizing control of sea lampreys in the Laurentian Great Lakes.

The great scientific revolutions of the 20. century

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Parrochia, D.

1997-01-01

Three great physical revolutions are studied here: the theory of relativity (general and restricted); the quantum mechanics (and its different interpretations); the theory of the determinist chaos (its pre-history as its applications). These three theories contribute to modify the answers that it is possible to bring to great metaphysical questions and to give a hint of a new philosophical landscape. (N.C.)

Identifying pollination service hotspots and coldspots using citizen science data from the Great Sunflower Project

Science.gov (United States)

LeBuhn, G.; Schmucki, R.

2016-12-01

Identifying the spatial patterns of pollinator visitation rates is key to identifying the drivers of differences in pollination service and the areas where pollinator conservation will provide the highest return on investment. However, gathering pollinator abundance data at the appropriate regional and national scales is untenable. As a surrogate, habitat models have been developed to identify areas of pollinator losses but these models have been developed using expert opinion based on foraging and nesting requirements. Thousands of citizen scientists across the United States participating in The Great Sunflower Project (www.GreatSunflower.org) contribute timed counts of pollinator visits to a focal sunflower variety planted in local gardens and green spaces. While these data provide a more direct measure of pollination service to a standardized plant and include a measure of effort, the data are complicated. Each location is sampled at different dates, times and frequencies as well as different points across the local flight season. To overcome this complication, we have used a generalized additive model to generate regional flight curves to calibrate each individual data point and to attain better estimates of pollination service at each site. Using these flight season corrected data, we identify hotspots and cold spots in pollinator service across the United States, evaluate the drivers shaping the spatial patterns and observe how these data align with the results obtained from predictive models that are based on expert knowledge on foraging and nesting habitats.

Building crop models within different crop modelling frameworks

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Adam, M.Y.O.; Corbeels, M.; Leffelaar, P.A.; Keulen, van H.; Wery, J.; Ewert, F.

2012-01-01

Modular frameworks for crop modelling have evolved through simultaneous progress in crop science and software development but differences among these frameworks exist which are not well understood, resulting in potential misuse for crop modelling. In this paper we review differences and similarities

Introduction to CAUSES: Description of Weather and Climate Models and Their Near-Surface Temperature Errors in 5 day Hindcasts Near the Southern Great Plains

Science.gov (United States)

Morcrette, C. J.; Van Weverberg, K.; Ma, H.-Y.; Ahlgrimm, M.; Bazile, E.; Berg, L. K.; Cheng, A.; Cheruy, F.; Cole, J.; Forbes, R.; Gustafson, W. I.; Huang, M.; Lee, W.-S.; Liu, Y.; Mellul, L.; Merryfield, W. J.; Qian, Y.; Roehrig, R.; Wang, Y.-C.; Xie, S.; Xu, K.-M.; Zhang, C.; Klein, S.; Petch, J.

2018-03-01

We introduce the Clouds Above the United States and Errors at the Surface (CAUSES) project with its aim of better understanding the physical processes leading to warm screen temperature biases over the American Midwest in many numerical models. In this first of four companion papers, 11 different models, from nine institutes, perform a series of 5 day hindcasts, each initialized from reanalyses. After describing the common experimental protocol and detailing each model configuration, a gridded temperature data set is derived from observations and used to show that all the models have a warm bias over parts of the Midwest. Additionally, a strong diurnal cycle in the screen temperature bias is found in most models. In some models the bias is largest around midday, while in others it is largest during the night. At the Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Southern Great Plains (SGP) site, the model biases are shown to extend several kilometers into the atmosphere. Finally, to provide context for the companion papers, in which observations from the SGP site are used to evaluate the different processes contributing to errors there, it is shown that there are numerous locations across the Midwest where the diurnal cycle of the error is highly correlated with the diurnal cycle of the error at SGP. This suggests that conclusions drawn from detailed evaluation of models using instruments located at SGP will be representative of errors that are prevalent over a larger spatial scale.

Great Britain Storm Surge Modeling for a 10,000-Year Stochastic Catalog with the Effect of Sea Level Rise

Science.gov (United States)

Keshtpoor, M.; Carnacina, I.; Blair, A.; Yablonsky, R. M.

2017-12-01

Storm surge caused by Extratropical Cyclones (ETCs) has significantly impacted not only the life of private citizens but also the insurance and reinsurance industry in Great Britain. The storm surge risk assessment requires a larger dataset of storms than the limited recorded historical ETCs. Thus, historical ETCs were perturbed to generate a 10,000-year stochastic catalog that accounts for surge-generating ETCs in the study area with return periods from one year to 10,000 years. Delft3D-Flexible Mesh hydrodynamic model was used to numerically simulate the storm surge along the Great Britain coastline. A nested grid technique was used to increase the simulation grid resolution up to 200 m near the highly populated coastal areas. Coarse and fine mesh models were calibrated and validated using historical recorded water elevations. Then, numerical simulations were performed on a 10,000-year stochastic catalog. The 50-, 100-, and 500-year return period maps were generated for Great Britain coastal areas. The corresponding events with return periods of 50-, 100-, and 500-years in Humber Bay and Thames River coastal areas were identified, and simulated with the consideration of projected sea level rises to reveal the effect of rising sea levels on the inundation return period maps in two highly-populated coastal areas. Finally, the return period of Storm Xaver (2013) was determined with and without the effect of rising sea levels.

Land Use Effects on Net Greenhouse Gas Fluxes in the US Great Plains: Historical Trends and Model Projections

Science.gov (United States)

Del Grosso, S. J.; Parton, W. J.; Ojima, D. S.; Mosier, A. R.; Mosier, A. R.; Paustian, K.; Peterson, G. A.

2001-12-01

We present maps showing regional patterns of land use change and soil C levels in the US Great Plains during the 20th century and time series of net greenhouse gas fluxes associated with different land uses. Net greenhouse gas fluxes were calculated by accounting for soil CO2 fluxes, the CO2 equivalents of N2O emissions and CH4 uptake, and the CO2 costs of N fertilizer production. Both historical and modern agriculture in this region have been net sources of greenhouse gases. The primary reason for this, prior to 1950, is that agriculture mined soil C and resulted in net CO2 emissions. When chemical N fertilizer became widely used in the 1950's agricultural soils began to sequester CO2-C but these soils were still net greenhouse gas sources if the effects of increased N2O emissions and decreased CH4 uptake are included. The sensitivity of net greenhouse gas fluxes to conventional and alternative land uses was explored using the DAYCENT ecosystem model. Model projections suggest that conversion to no-till, reduction of the fallow period, and use of nitrification inhibitors can significantly decrease net greenhouse gas emissions in dryland and irrigated systems, while maintaining or increasing crop yields.

Evaluation of regional climate simulations over the Great Lakes region driven by three global data sets

Science.gov (United States)

Shiyuan Zhong; Xiuping Li; Xindi Bian; Warren E. Heilman; L. Ruby Leung; William I. Jr. Gustafson

2012-01-01

The performance of regional climate simulations is evaluated for the Great Lakes region. Three 10-year (1990-1999) current-climate simulations are performed using the MM5 regional climate model (RCM) with 36-km horizontal resolution. The simulations employed identical configuration and physical parameterizations, but different lateral boundary conditions and sea-...

Impact of atmospheric components on solar clear-sky models at different elevation: Case study Canary Islands

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Antonanzas-Torres, F.; Antonanzas, J.; Urraca, R.; Alia-Martinez, M.; Martinez-de-Pison, F.J.

2016-01-01

Highlights: • Assessment on the performance of solar clear-sky models at different altitude. • SOLIS and REST2 clear-sky models were superior with fine atmospheric inputs. • ESRA proved more robust with low spatial resolution atmospheric inputs. • Over-estimation occurred at the lower site when using inputs from the upper site. - Abstract: The estimation of clear-sky solar irradiance via clear-sky models depends on reliable values of aerosol optical depth, water vapor and ozone content. These atmospheric variables are rarely on-site measured and are generally provided as gridded estimates in very low spatial resolution (1°). The high spatial variability of atmospheric variables within the grid resolution (pixel) leads to important errors in those areas with great atmospheric variability, such as in mountainous regions. In this paper, the performance of three clear-sky solar irradiance models was evaluated in a site with especially great elevation range, the Izana station from the Baseline Surface Radiation Network (Tenerife, Canary Islands) located at a high elevation (2373 m) and just 14 km from the ocean. Aerosols data were obtained from measurements from the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) at the same site. The evaluation was also compared with global horizontal irradiance estimations with clear-sky models in the Guimar station, located at a lower elevation (156 m) and only 11.5 km away from Izana. Results showed a strong influence of elevation on solar radiation estimation under clear-sky conditions.

Evolution of tolerance by magpies to brood parasitism by great spotted cuckoos.

Science.gov (United States)

Soler, J J; Martín-Gálvez, D; Martínez, J G; Soler, M; Canestrari, D; Abad-Gómez, J M; Møller, A P

2011-07-07

Hosts may use two different strategies to ameliorate negative effects of a given parasite burden: resistance or tolerance. Although both resistance and tolerance of parasitism should evolve as a consequence of selection pressures owing to parasitism, the study of evolutionary patterns of tolerance has traditionally been neglected by animal biologists. Here, we explore geographical covariation between tolerance of magpies (Pica pica) and brood parasitism by the great spotted cuckoo (Clamator glandarius) in nine different sympatric populations. We estimated tolerance as the slope of the regression of number of magpie fledglings (i.e. host fitness) on number of cuckoo eggs laid in non-depredated nests (which broadly equals parasite burden). We also estimated prevalence of parasitism and level of host resistance (i.e. rejection rates of mimetic model eggs) in these nine populations. In accordance with the hypothetical role of tolerance in the coevolutionary process between magpies and cuckoos we found geographical variation in tolerance estimates that positively covaried with prevalence of parasitism. Levels of resistance and tolerance were not associated, possibly suggesting the lack of a trade-off between the two kinds of defences against great spotted cuckoo parasitism for magpies. We discuss the results in the framework of a mosaic of coevolutionary interactions along the geographical distribution of magpies and great spotted cuckoos for which we found evidence that tolerance plays a major role.

Quantitative interpretation of great lakes remote sensing data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shook, D.F.; Salzman, J.; Svehla, R.A.; Gedney, R.T.

1980-01-01

Remote sensing has been applied in the past to the surveillance of Great Lakes water quality, but it has been only partially successful because of the completely empirical approach taken in relating the multispectral scanning data at visible and near-infrared wavelengths to water parameters. Any remote sensing approach using water color information must take into account (1) the existence of many different organic and inorganic species throughtout the Greak Lakes, (2) the occurrence of a mixture of species in most locations, and (3) spatial (inter- and interlake as well as vertical) variations in types and concentrations of species. The radiative transfer model provides a potential method for an orderly analysis of remote sensing data and a physical basis for developing quantitative algorithms. Predictions and field measurements of volume reflectances are presented which clearly show the advantage of using a radiative transfer model. Spectral absorptance and backscattering coefficients for two inorganic sediments are reported

Making sense to modelers: Presenting UML class model differences in prose

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Störrle, Harald

2013-01-01

Understanding the difference between two models, such as different versions of a design, can be difficult. It is a commonly held belief in the model differencing community that the best way of presenting a model difference is by using graph or tree-based visualizations. We disagree and present an...... by a controlled experiment that tests three alternatives to presenting model differences. Our findings support our claim that the approach presented here is superior to EMF Compare.......Understanding the difference between two models, such as different versions of a design, can be difficult. It is a commonly held belief in the model differencing community that the best way of presenting a model difference is by using graph or tree-based visualizations. We disagree and present...... an alternative approach where sets of low-level model differences are abstracted into high-level model differences that lend themselves to being presented textually. This format is informed by an explorative survey to elicit the change descriptions modelers use themselves. Our approach is validated...

Great Lakes Literacy Principles

Science.gov (United States)

Fortner, Rosanne W.; Manzo, Lyndsey

2011-03-01

Lakes Superior, Huron, Michigan, Ontario, and Erie together form North America's Great Lakes, a region that contains 20% of the world's fresh surface water and is home to roughly one quarter of the U.S. population (Figure 1). Supporting a $4 billion sport fishing industry, plus $16 billion annually in boating, 1.5 million U.S. jobs, and $62 billion in annual wages directly, the Great Lakes form the backbone of a regional economy that is vital to the United States as a whole (see http://www.miseagrant.umich.edu/downloads/economy/11-708-Great-Lakes-Jobs.pdf). Yet the grandeur and importance of this freshwater resource are little understood, not only by people in the rest of the country but also by many in the region itself. To help address this lack of knowledge, the Centers for Ocean Sciences Education Excellence (COSEE) Great Lakes, supported by the U.S. National Science Foundation and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, developed literacy principles for the Great Lakes to serve as a guide for education of students and the public. These “Great Lakes Literacy Principles” represent an understanding of the Great Lakes' influences on society and society's influences on the Great Lakes.

Microstructure and cross-sectional shape of limb bones in Great Horned Owls and Red-tailed Hawks: how do these features relate to differences in flight and hunting behavior?

Science.gov (United States)

Marelli, Crystal A; Simons, Erin L R

2014-01-01

The Red-tailed Hawk and Great Horned Owl are two species of raptor that are similar in body size, diet, and habitat. Both species use their hindlimbs during hunting, but differ in foot morphology, how they approach and immobilize prey, and the average size of prey captured. They also differ in primary flight style: the Red-tailed Hawk uses static soaring and the Great Horned Owl uses flap-gliding. The objectives of this study were to characterize the microstructure and cross-sectional shape of limb bones of these species and examine the relationship with flight and hunting behaviors. The mid-shaft of six limb bones from six individuals of each species was sampled. The degree of bone laminarity (proportion of circular primary vascular canals) and cross-sectional geometric parameters were calculated. In both species, the humerus and femur exhibited features that suggest high resistance to torsional loading, whereas the tibiotarsus and phalanges had a shape more likely to resist compression and bending in a specific plane. The femur of the Red-tailed Hawk exhibited higher laminarity and larger polar moment of area than that of the Great Horned Owl. The tibiotarsus was more elliptical than that of the Great Horned Owl. The hawk approaches prey from a more horizontal axis, takes prey of greater mass, and is more likely to pursue prey on the ground, which could potentially be causing more torsional loads on the femur and bending loads on the tibiotarsus. In addition, differences in polar moment of area of the phalanges between the species could relate to differences in foot morphology or digit length. The humerus and ulna of the flap-gliding Great Horned Owl are more elliptical than the static soaring Red-tailed Hawk, a shape that may better resist the bending loads associated with a larger amount of flapping.

The strength of great apes and the speed of humans.

Science.gov (United States)

Walker, Alan

2009-04-01

Cliff Jolly developed a causal model of human origins in his paper "The Seed-Eaters," published in 1970. He was one of the first to attempt this, and the paper has since become a classic. I do not have such grand goals; instead, I seek to understand a major difference between the living great apes and humans. More than 50 years ago, Maynard Smith and Savage (1956) showed that the musculoskeletal systems of mammals can be adapted for strength at one extreme and speed at the other but not both. Great apes are adapted for strength--chimpanzees have been shown to be about four times as strong as fit young humans when normalized for body size. The corresponding speed that human limb systems gain at the expense of power is critical for effective human activities such as running, throwing, and manipulation, including tool making. The fossil record can shed light on when the change from power to speed occurred. I outline a hypothesis that suggests that the difference in muscular performance between the two species is caused by chimpanzees having many fewer small motor units than humans, which leads them, in turn, to contract more muscle fibers earlier in any particular task. I outline a histological test of this hypothesis.

Moral reasoning about great apes in research

Science.gov (United States)

Okamoto, Carol Midori

2006-04-01

This study explored how individuals (biomedical scientists, Great Ape Project activists, lay adults, undergraduate biology and environmental studies students, and Grade 12 and 9 biology students) morally judge and reason about using great apes in biomedical and language research. How these groups perceived great apes' mental capacities (e.g., pain, logical thinking) and how these perceptions related to their judgments were investigated through two scenarios. In addition, the kinds of informational statements (e.g., biology, economics) that may affect individuals' scenario judgments were investigated. A negative correlation was found between mental attributions and scenario judgments while no clear pattern occurred for the informational statements. For the biomedical scenario, all groups significantly differed in mean judgment ratings except for the biomedical scientists, GAP activists and Grade 9 students. For the language scenario, all groups differed except for the GAP activists, and undergraduate environmental studies and Grade 9 students. An in-depth qualitative analysis showed that although the biomedical scientists, GAP activists and Grade 9 students had similar judgments, they produced different mean percentages of justifications under four moral frameworks (virtue, utilitarianism, deontology, and welfare). The GAP activists used more virtue reasoning while the biomedical scientists and Grade 9 students used more utilitarian and welfare reasoning, respectively. The results are discussed in terms of developing environmental/humane education curricula.

Great differences in the critical erosion threshold between surface and subsurface sediments: A field investigation of an intertidal mudflat, Jiangsu, China

Science.gov (United States)

Shi, Benwei; Wang, Ya Ping; Wang, Li Hua; Li, Peng; Gao, Jianhua; Xing, Fei; Chen, Jing Dong

2018-06-01

Understanding of bottom sediment erodibility is necessary for the sustainable management and protection of coastlines, and is of great importance for numerical models of sediment dynamics and transport. To investigate the dependence of sediment erodibility on degree of consolidation, we measured turbidity, waves, tidal currents, intratidal bed-level changes, and sediment properties on an exposed macrotidal mudflat during a series of tidal cycles. We estimated the water content of surface sediments (in the uppermost 2 cm of sediment) and sub-surface sediments (at 2 cm below the sediment surface). Bed shear stress values due to currents (τc), waves (τw), and combined current-wave action (τcw) were calculated using a hydrodynamic model. In this study, we estimate the critical shear stress for erosion using two approaches and both of them give similar results. We found that the critical shear stress for erosion (τce) was 0.17-0.18 N/m2 in the uppermost 0-2 cm of sediment and 0.29 N/m2 in sub-surface sediment layers (depth, 2 cm), as determined by time series of τcw values and intratidal bed-level changes, and values of τce, obtained using the water content of bottom sediments, were 0.16 N/m2 in the uppermost 2 cm and 0.28 N/m2 in the sub-surface (depth, 2 cm) sediment. These results indicate that the value of τce for sub-surface sediments (depth, 2 cm) is much greater than that for the uppermost sediments (depth, 0-2 cm), and that the τce value is mainly related to the water content, which is determined by the extent of consolidation. Our results have implications for improving the predictive accuracy of models of sediment transport and morphological evolution, by introducing variable τce values for corresponding sediment layers, and can also provide a mechanistic understanding of bottom sediment erodibility at different sediment depths on intertidal mudflats, as related to differences in the consolidation time.

A case study of the Great Plains low-level jet using wind profiler network data and a high resolution mesoscale model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zhong, S.; Fast, J.D.; Bian, X.; Stage, S. [Pacific Northwest National Lab., Richland, WA (United States)] [and others

1996-04-01

The Great Plains low-level jet (LLJ) has important effects on the life cycle of clouds and on radiative and surface heat and moisture fluxes at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) Cloud and Radiation Testbed (CART) site. This diurnal phenomenon governs the transport and convergence of low-level moisture into the region and often leads to the development of clouds and precipitation. A full understanding of the life cycle of clouds at the SGP CART site and their proper representation in single column and global climate models cannot be obtained without an improved understanding of this important phenomenon.

Determination of Flutter Derivatives for the Great Belt Bridge

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Poulsen, Niels Kjølstad; Damsgaard, Aage; Reinhold, Thim A.

1992-01-01

A new method which combines control theory and system identification techniques has been used to extract flutter derivatives from section model tests for the Great Belt East Bridge. Tests were conducted by exciting the section model simultaneously in vertical and torsional modes of vibration. Tests...

Similarities and differences in imperial administration Great Britain in Egypt and Austria-Hungary in Bosnia-Herzegovina 1878-1903

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nikolić Anja

2016-01-01

Full Text Available This article discusses the similarities and differences of the position of Great Britain in Egypt and Austria-Hungary in Bosnia-Herzegovina in the age of New Imperialism. Comparative approach will allow us to put both situations in their historical context. Austria-Hungary’s absorption of Bosnia-Herzegovina was part of colonial involvement throughout the world. Egypt and Bosnia-Herzegovina were formally parts of the Ottoman Empire, although occupied and administrated by European Powers. Two administrators, Evelyn Baring as consul-general in Egypt and Benjamin von Kállay as civil administrator of Bosnia-Herzegovina, believed that it was their duty to bring “civilization”, prosperity and western culture to these lands - a classic argumentation found in the New Imperialism discourse. One of the most important tasks for both administrators was fighting the national movements, which led to the suppression of political freedoms and the introduction of a large administrative apparatus to govern the newly-occupied lands. Complete control over political life and the educational system was also one of the major features of both administrations. Both Great Britain in Egypt and Austria-Hungary in Bosnia-Herzegovina never tackled the agrarian question for their own political reasons. British rule in Egypt and Austro-Hungarian in Bosnia-Herzegovina bore striking resemblances.

Parametric Simulations of the Great Dark Spots of Neptune

Science.gov (United States)

Deng, Xiaolong; Le Beau, R.

2006-09-01

Observations by Voyager II and the Hubble Space Telescope of the Great Dark Spots (GDS) of Neptune suggest that large vortices with lifespans of years are not uncommon occurrences in the atmosphere of Neptune. The variability of these features over time, in particular the complex motions of GDS-89, make them challenging candidates to simulate in atmospheric models. Previously, using the Explicit Planetary Isentropic-Coordinate (EPIC) General Circulation Model, LeBeau and Dowling (1998) simulated the GDS-like vortex features. Qualitatively, the drift, oscillation, and tail-like features of GDS-89 were recreated, although precise numerical matches were only achieved for the meridional drift rate. In 2001, Stratman et al. applied EPIC to simulate the formation of bright companion clouds to the Great Dark Spots. In 2006, Dowling et al. presented a new version of EPIC, which includes hybrid vertical coordinate, cloud physics, advanced chemistry, and new turbulence models. With the new version of EPIC, more observation results, and more powerful computers, it is the time to revisit CFD simulations of the Neptune's atmosphere and do more detailed work on GDS-like vortices. In this presentation, we apply the new version of EPIC to simulate GDS-89. We test the influences of different parameters in the EPIC model: potential vorticity gradient, wind profile, initial latitude, vortex shape, and vertical structure. The observed motions, especially the latitudinal drift and oscillations in orientation angle and aspect ratio, are used as diagnostics of these unobserved atmospheric conditions. Increased computing power allows for more refined and longer simulations and greater coverage of the parameter space than previous efforts. Improved quantitative results have been achieved, including voritices with near eight-day oscillations and comparable variations in shape to GDS-89. This research has been supported by Kentucky NASA EPSCoR.

Intensive precipitation observation greatly improves hydrological modelling of the poorly gauged high mountain Mabengnong catchment in the Tibetan Plateau

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Li; Zhang, Fan; Zhang, Hongbo; Scott, Christopher A.; Zeng, Chen; Shi, Xiaonan

2018-01-01

Precipitation is one of the most critical inputs for models used to improve understanding of hydrological processes. In high mountain areas, it is challenging to generate a reliable precipitation data set capturing the spatial and temporal heterogeneity due to the harsh climate, extreme terrain and the lack of observations. This study conducts intensive observation of precipitation in the Mabengnong catchment in the southeast of the Tibetan Plateau during July to August 2013. Because precipitation is greatly influenced by altitude, the observed data are used to characterize the precipitation gradient (PG) and hourly distribution (HD), showing that the average PG is 0.10, 0.28 and 0.26 mm/d/100 m and the average duration is around 0.1, 0.8 and 5.2 h for trace, light and moderate rain, respectively. A distributed biosphere hydrological model based on water and energy budgets with improved physical process for snow (WEB-DHM-S) is applied to simulate the hydrological processes with gridded precipitation data derived from a lower altitude meteorological station and the PG and HD characterized for the study area. The observed runoff, MODIS/Terra snow cover area (SCA) data, and MODIS/Terra land surface temperature (LST) data are used for model calibration and validation. Runoff, SCA and LST simulations all show reasonable results. Sensitivity analyses illustrate that runoff is largely underestimated without considering PG, indicating that short-term intensive precipitation observation has the potential to greatly improve hydrological modelling of poorly gauged high mountain catchments.

Diagnosing differences between business process models

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Dijkman, R.M.; Dumas, M.; Reichert, M.; Shan, M.-C.

2008-01-01

This paper presents a technique to diagnose differences between business process models in the EPC notation. The diagnosis returns the exact position of a difference in the business process models and diagnoses the type of a difference, using a typology of differences developed in previous work.

Pacific salmonines in the Great Lakes Basin

Science.gov (United States)

Claramunt, Randall M.; Madenjian, Charles P.; Clapp, David; Taylor, William W.; Lynch, Abigail J.; Léonard, Nancy J.

2012-01-01

Pacific salmon (genus Oncorhynchus) are a valuable resource, both within their native range in the North Pacific rim and in the Great Lakes basin. Understanding their value from a biological and economic perspective in the Great Lakes, however, requires an understanding of changes in the ecosystem and of management actions that have been taken to promote system stability, integrity, and sustainable fisheries. Pacific salmonine introductions to the Great Lakes are comprised mainly of Chinook salmon, coho salmon, and steelhead and have accounted for 421, 177, and 247 million fish, respectively, stocked during 1966-2007. Stocking of Pacific salmonines has been effective in substantially reducing exotic prey fish abundances in several of the Great Lakes (e.g., lakes Michigan, Huron, and Ontario). The goal of our evaluation was to highlight differences in management strategies and perspectives across the basin, and to evaluate policies for Pacific salmonine management in the Great Lakes. Currently, a potential conflict exists between Pacific salmonine management and native fish rehabilitation goals because of the desire to sustain recreational fisheries and to develop self-sustaining populations of stocked Pacific salmonines in the Great Lakes. We provide evidence that suggests Pacific salmonines have not only become naturalized to the food webs of the Great Lakes, but that their populations (specifically Chinook salmon) may be fluctuating in concert with specific prey (i.e., alewives) whose populations are changing relative to environmental conditions and ecosystem disturbances. Remaining questions, however, are whether or not “natural” fluctuations in predator and prey provide enough “stability” in the Great Lakes food webs, and even more importantly, would a choice by managers to attempt to reduce the severity of predator-prey oscillations be antagonistic to native fish restoration efforts. We argue that, on each of the Great Lakes, managers are pursuing

Annual crop type classification of the U.S. Great Plains for 2000 to 2011

Science.gov (United States)

Howard, Daniel M.; Wylie, Bruce K.

2014-01-01

The purpose of this study was to increase the spatial and temporal availability of crop classification data. In this study, nearly 16.2 million crop observation points were used in the training of the US Great Plains classification tree crop type model (CTM). Each observation point was further defined by weekly Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, annual climate, and a number of other biogeophysical environmental characteristics. This study accounted for the most prevalent crop types in the region, including, corn, soybeans, winter wheat, spring wheat, cotton, sorghum, and alfalfa. Annual CTM crop maps of the US Great Plains were created for 2000 to 2011 at a spatial resolution of 250 meters. The CTM achieved an 87 percent classification success rate on 1.8 million observation points that were withheld from model training. Product validation was performed on greater than 15,000 county records with a coefficient of determination of R2 = 0.76.

Hospital Capital Investment During the Great Recession.

Science.gov (United States)

Choi, Sung

2017-01-01

Hospital capital investment is important for acquiring and maintaining technology and equipment needed to provide health care. Reduction in capital investment by a hospital has negative implications for patient outcomes. Most hospitals rely on debt and internal cash flow to fund capital investment. The great recession may have made it difficult for hospitals to borrow, thus reducing their capital investment. I investigated the impact of the great recession on capital investment made by California hospitals. Modeling how hospital capital investment may have been liquidity constrained during the recession is a novel contribution to the literature. I estimated the model with California Office of Statewide Health Planning and Development data and system generalized method of moments. Findings suggest that not-for-profit and public hospitals were liquidity constrained during the recession. Comparing the changes in hospital capital investment between 2006 and 2009 showed that hospitals used cash flow to increase capital investment by $2.45 million, other things equal.

Hospital Capital Investment During the Great Recession

Science.gov (United States)

Choi, Sung

2017-01-01

Hospital capital investment is important for acquiring and maintaining technology and equipment needed to provide health care. Reduction in capital investment by a hospital has negative implications for patient outcomes. Most hospitals rely on debt and internal cash flow to fund capital investment. The great recession may have made it difficult for hospitals to borrow, thus reducing their capital investment. I investigated the impact of the great recession on capital investment made by California hospitals. Modeling how hospital capital investment may have been liquidity constrained during the recession is a novel contribution to the literature. I estimated the model with California Office of Statewide Health Planning and Development data and system generalized method of moments. Findings suggest that not-for-profit and public hospitals were liquidity constrained during the recession. Comparing the changes in hospital capital investment between 2006 and 2009 showed that hospitals used cash flow to increase capital investment by $2.45 million, other things equal. PMID:28617202

Energy and water in the Great Lakes.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tidwell, Vincent Carroll

2011-11-01

The nexus between thermoelectric power production and water use is not uniform across the U.S., but rather differs according to regional physiography, demography, power plant fleet composition, and the transmission network. That is, in some regions water demand for thermoelectric production is relatively small while in other regions it represents the dominate use. The later is the case for the Great Lakes region, which has important implications for the water resources and aquatic ecology of the Great Lakes watershed. This is today, but what about the future? Projected demographic trends, shifting lifestyles, and economic growth coupled with the threat of global climate change and mounting pressure for greater U.S. energy security could have profound effects on the region's energy future. Planning for such an uncertain future is further complicated by the fact that energy and environmental planning and regulatory decisionmaking is largely bifurcated in the region, with environmental and water resource concerns generally taken into account after new energy facilities and technologies have been proposed, or practices are already in place. Based on these confounding needs, the objective of this effort is to develop Great Lakes-specific methods and tools to integrate energy and water resource planning and thereby support the dual goals of smarter energy planning and development, and protection of Great Lakes water resources. Guiding policies for this planning are the Great Lakes and St. Lawrence River Basin Water Resources Compact and the Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement. The desired outcome of integrated energy-water-aquatic resource planning is a more sustainable regional energy mix for the Great Lakes basin ecosystem.

Model-based scenario planning to inform climate change adaptation in the Northern Great Plains—Final report

Science.gov (United States)

Symstad, Amy J.; Miller, Brian W.; Friedman, Jonathan M.; Fisichelli, Nicholas A.; Ray, Andrea J.; Rowland, Erika; Schuurman, Gregor W.

2017-12-18

Public SummaryWe worked with managers in two focal areas to plan for the uncertain future by integrating quantitative climate change scenarios and simulation modeling into scenario planning exercises.In our central North Dakota focal area, centered on Knife River Indian Villages National Historic Site, managers are concerned about how changes in flood severity and growing conditions for native and invasive plants may affect archaeological resources and cultural landscapes associated with the Knife and Missouri Rivers. Climate projections and hydrological modeling based on those projections indicate plausible changes in spring and summer soil moisture ranging from a 7 percent decrease to a 13 percent increase and maximum winter snowpack (important for spring flooding) changes ranging from a 13 percent decrease to a 47 percent increase. Facilitated discussions among managers and scientists exploring the implications of these different climate scenarios for resource management revealed potential conflicts between protecting archeological sites and fostering riparian cottonwood forests. The discussions also indicated the need to prioritize archeological sites for excavation or protection and culturally important plant species for intensive management attention.In our southwestern South Dakota focal area, centered on Badlands National Park, managers are concerned about how changing climate will affect vegetation production, wildlife populations, and erosion of fossils, archeological artifacts, and roads. Climate scenarios explored by managers and scientists in this focal area ranged from a 13 percent decrease to a 33 percent increase in spring precipitation, which is critical to plant growth in the northern Great Plains region, and a slight decrease to a near doubling of intense rain events. Facilitated discussions in this focal area concluded that greater effort should be put into preparing for emergency protection, excavation, and preservation of exposed fossils or

Using large hydrological datasets to create a robust, physically based, spatially distributed model for Great Britain

Science.gov (United States)

Lewis, Elizabeth; Kilsby, Chris; Fowler, Hayley

2014-05-01

The impact of climate change on hydrological systems requires further quantification in order to inform water management. This study intends to conduct such analysis using hydrological models. Such models are of varying forms, of which conceptual, lumped parameter models and physically-based models are two important types. The majority of hydrological studies use conceptual models calibrated against measured river flow time series in order to represent catchment behaviour. This method often shows impressive results for specific problems in gauged catchments. However, the results may not be robust under non-stationary conditions such as climate change, as physical processes and relationships amenable to change are not accounted for explicitly. Moreover, conceptual models are less readily applicable to ungauged catchments, in which hydrological predictions are also required. As such, the physically based, spatially distributed model SHETRAN is used in this study to develop a robust and reliable framework for modelling historic and future behaviour of gauged and ungauged catchments across the whole of Great Britain. In order to achieve this, a large array of data completely covering Great Britain for the period 1960-2006 has been collated and efficiently stored ready for model input. The data processed include a DEM, rainfall, PE and maps of geology, soil and land cover. A desire to make the modelling system easy for others to work with led to the development of a user-friendly graphical interface. This allows non-experts to set up and run a catchment model in a few seconds, a process that can normally take weeks or months. The quality and reliability of the extensive dataset for modelling hydrological processes has also been evaluated. One aspect of this has been an assessment of error and uncertainty in rainfall input data, as well as the effects of temporal resolution in precipitation inputs on model calibration. SHETRAN has been updated to accept gridded rainfall

In vitro radiosensitivity of six human cell lines. A comparative study with different statistical models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fertil, B.; Deschavanne, P.J.; Lachet, B.; Malaise, E.P.

1980-01-01

The intrinsic radiosensitivity of human cell lines (five tumor and one nontransformed fibroblastic) was studied in vitro. The survival curves were fitted by the single-hit multitarget, the two-hit multitarget, the single-hit multitarget with initial slope, and the quadratic models. The accuracy of the experimental results permitted evaluation of the various fittings. Both a statistical test (comparison of variances left unexplained by the four models) and a biological consideration (check for independence of the fitted parameters vis-a-vis the portion of the survival curve in question) were carried out. The quadratic model came out best with each of them. It described the low-dose effects satisfactorily, revealing a single-hit lethal component. This finding and the fact that the six survival curves displayed a continuous curvature ruled out the adoption of the target models as well as the widely used linear regression. As calculated by the quadratic model, the parameters of the six cell lines lead to the following conclusions: (a) the intrinsic radiosensitivity varies greatly among the different cell lines; (b) the interpretation of the fibroblast survival curve is not basically different from that of the tumor cell lines; and (c) the radiosensitivity of these human cell lines is comparable to that of other mammalian cell lines

Great Lakes rivermouths: a primer for managers

Science.gov (United States)

Pebbles, Victoria; Larson, James; Seelbach, Paul; Pebbles, Victoria; Larson, James; Seelbach, Paul

2013-01-01

Between the North American Great Lakes and their tributaries are the places where the confluence of river and lake waters creates a distinct ecosystem: the rivermouth ecosystem. Human development has often centered around these rivermouths, in part, because they provide a rich array of ecosystem services. Not surprisingly, centuries of intense human activity have led to substantial pressures on, and alterations to, these ecosystems, often diminishing or degrading their ecological functions and associated ecological services. Many Great Lakes rivermouths are the focus of intense restoration efforts. For example, 36 of the active Great Lakes Areas of Concern (AOCs) are rivermouths or areas that include one or more rivermouths. Historically, research of rivermouth ecosystems has been piecemeal, focused on the Great Lakes proper or on the upper reaches of tributaries, with little direct study of the rivermouth itself. Researchers have been divided among disciplines, agencies and institutions; and they often work independently and use disparate venues to communicate their work. Management has also been fragmented with a focus on smaller, localized, sub-habitat units and socio-political or economic elements, rather than system-level consideration. This Primer presents the case for a more holistic approach to rivermouth science and management that can enable restoration of ecosystem services with multiple benefits to humans and the Great Lakes ecosystem. A conceptual model is presented with supporting text that describes the structures and processes common to all rivermouths, substantiating the case for treating these ecosystems as an identifiable class.1 Ecological services provided by rivermouths and changes in how humans value those services over time are illustrated through case studies of two Great Lakes rivermouths—the St. Louis River and the Maumee River. Specific ecosystem services are identified in italics throughout this Primer and follow definitions described

A generic method for automatic translation between input models for different versions of simulation codes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Serfontein, Dawid E.; Mulder, Eben J.; Reitsma, Frederik

2014-01-01

A computer code was developed for the semi-automatic translation of input models for the VSOP-A diffusion neutronics simulation code to the format of the newer VSOP 99/05 code. In this paper, this algorithm is presented as a generic method for producing codes for the automatic translation of input models from the format of one code version to another, or even to that of a completely different code. Normally, such translations are done manually. However, input model files, such as for the VSOP codes, often are very large and may consist of many thousands of numeric entries that make no particular sense to the human eye. Therefore the task, of for instance nuclear regulators, to verify the accuracy of such translated files can be very difficult and cumbersome. This may cause translation errors not to be picked up, which may have disastrous consequences later on when a reactor with such a faulty design is built. Therefore a generic algorithm for producing such automatic translation codes may ease the translation and verification process to a great extent. It will also remove human error from the process, which may significantly enhance the accuracy and reliability of the process. The developed algorithm also automatically creates a verification log file which permanently record the names and values of each variable used, as well as the list of meanings of all the possible values. This should greatly facilitate reactor licensing applications

A generic method for automatic translation between input models for different versions of simulation codes

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Serfontein, Dawid E., E-mail: Dawid.Serfontein@nwu.ac.za [School of Mechanical and Nuclear Engineering, North West University (PUK-Campus), PRIVATE BAG X6001 (Internal Post Box 360), Potchefstroom 2520 (South Africa); Mulder, Eben J. [School of Mechanical and Nuclear Engineering, North West University (South Africa); Reitsma, Frederik [Calvera Consultants (South Africa)

2014-05-01

A computer code was developed for the semi-automatic translation of input models for the VSOP-A diffusion neutronics simulation code to the format of the newer VSOP 99/05 code. In this paper, this algorithm is presented as a generic method for producing codes for the automatic translation of input models from the format of one code version to another, or even to that of a completely different code. Normally, such translations are done manually. However, input model files, such as for the VSOP codes, often are very large and may consist of many thousands of numeric entries that make no particular sense to the human eye. Therefore the task, of for instance nuclear regulators, to verify the accuracy of such translated files can be very difficult and cumbersome. This may cause translation errors not to be picked up, which may have disastrous consequences later on when a reactor with such a faulty design is built. Therefore a generic algorithm for producing such automatic translation codes may ease the translation and verification process to a great extent. It will also remove human error from the process, which may significantly enhance the accuracy and reliability of the process. The developed algorithm also automatically creates a verification log file which permanently record the names and values of each variable used, as well as the list of meanings of all the possible values. This should greatly facilitate reactor licensing applications.

Great Lakes rivermouth ecosystems: scientific synthesis and management implications

Science.gov (United States)

Larson, James H.; Trebitz, Anett S.; Steinman, Alan D.; Wiley, Michael J.; Carlson Mazur, Martha; Pebbles, Victoria; Braun, Heather A.; Seelbach, Paul W.

2013-01-01

At the interface of the Great Lakes and their tributary rivers lies the rivermouths, a class of aquatic ecosystem where lake and lotic processes mix and distinct features emerge. Many rivermouths are the focal point of both human interaction with the Great Lakes and human impacts to the lakes; many cities, ports, and beaches are located in rivermouth ecosystems, and these human pressures often degrade key ecological functions that rivermouths provide. Despite their ecological uniqueness and apparent economic importance, there has been relatively little research on these ecosystems as a class relative to studies on upstream rivers or the open-lake waters. Here we present a synthesis of current knowledge about ecosystem structure and function in Great Lakes rivermouths based on studies in both Laurentian rivermouths, coastal wetlands, and marine estuarine systems. A conceptual model is presented that establishes a common semantic framework for discussing the characteristic spatial features of rivermouths. This model then is used to conceptually link ecosystem structure and function to ecological services provided by rivermouths. This synthesis helps identify the critical gaps in understanding rivermouth ecology. Specifically, additional information is needed on how rivermouths collectively influence the Great Lakes ecosystem, how human alterations influence rivermouth functions, and how ecosystem services provided by rivermouths can be managed to benefit the surrounding socioeconomic networks.

Learning and the Great Moderation

OpenAIRE

Bullard, James B.; Singh, Aarti

2009-01-01

We study a stylized theory of the volatility reduction in the U.S. after 1984 - the Great Moderation - which attributes part of the stabilization to less volatile shocks and another part to more difficult inference on the part of Bayesian households attempting to learn the latent state of the economy. We use a standard equilibrium business cycle model with technology following an unobserved regime-switching process. After 1984, according to Kim and Nelson (1999a), the variance of U.S. macroec...

Role of different types of solid models in hydrodynamic modeling and their effects on groundwater protection processes

Science.gov (United States)

Bódi, Erika; Buday, Tamás; McIntosh, Richard William

2013-04-01

handle pinching out lithological units and lenticular bodies easier while most hydrodynamic softwares cannot handle flow units related to such model layers. Interpretation of tectonic disturbance is similar. In Hungary groundwater is extracted mainly from Pleistocene and Pannonian aquifers sediments of which were deposited in the ancient Pannonian Lake. When the basin lost its open-marine connection eustasy had no direct effects on facies changes therefore subsidence and sediment supply became the main factors. Various basin-filling related facies developed including alluvial plain facies, different delta facies types and pelitic deep-basin facies. Creating solid models based on sequence stratigraphic methods requires more raw data and also genetic approaches, in addition more working hours hence this method is seldom used in practice. Lithology-based models can be transformed into sequence stratigraphic models by extending the data base (e.g. detecting more survey data). In environments where the obtained models differ significantly notable changes can occur in the supply directions in addition the groundwater travel-time of the two models even on equal extraction terms. Our study aims to call attention to the consequences of using different solid models for typical depositional systems of the Great Hungarian Plain and to their effects on groundwater protection.

Great Basin geologic framework and uranium favorability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Larson, L.T.; Beal, L.H.

1978-01-01

Work on this report has been done by a team of seven investigators assisted over the project span by twenty-three undergraduate and graduate students from May 18, 1976 to August 19, 1977. The report is presented in one volume of text, one volume or Folio of Maps, and two volumes of bibliography. The bibliography contains approximately 5300 references on geologic subjects pertinent to the search for uranium in the Great Basin. Volume I of the bibliography lists articles by author alphabetically and Volume II cross-indexes these articles by location and key word. Chapters I through IV of the Text volume and accompanying Folio Map Sets 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5, discuss the relationship of uranium to rock and structural environments which dominate the Great Basin. Chapter 5 and Map Sets 6 and 7 provide a geochemical association/metallogenic grouping of mineral occurrences in the Great Basin along with information on rock types hosting uranium. Chapter VI summarizes the results of a court house claim record search for 'new' claiming areas for uranium, and Chapter VII along with Folio Map Set 8 gives all published geochronological data available through April 1, 1977 on rocks of the Great Basin. Chapter VIII provides an introduction to a computer analysis of characteristics of certain major uranium deposits in crystalline rocks (worldwide) and is offered as a suggestion of what might be done with uranium in all geologic environments. We believe such analysis will assist materially in constructing exploration models. Chapter IX summarizes criteria used and conclusions reached as to the favorability of uranium environments which we believe to exist in the Great Basin and concludes with recommendations for both exploration and future research. A general summary conclusion is that there are several geologic environments within the Great Basin which have considerable potential and that few, if any, have been sufficiently tested

Mechanics of biting in great white and sandtiger sharks.

Science.gov (United States)

Ferrara, T L; Clausen, P; Huber, D R; McHenry, C R; Peddemors, V; Wroe, S

2011-02-03

Although a strong correlation between jaw mechanics and prey selection has been demonstrated in bony fishes (Osteichthyes), how jaw mechanics influence feeding performance in cartilaginous fishes (Chondrichthyes) remains unknown. Hence, tooth shape has been regarded as a primary predictor of feeding behavior in sharks. Here we apply Finite Element Analysis (FEA) to examine form and function in the jaws of two threatened shark species, the great white (Carcharodon carcharias) and the sandtiger (Carcharias taurus). These species possess characteristic tooth shapes believed to reflect dietary preferences. We show that the jaws of sandtigers and great whites are adapted for rapid closure and generation of maximum bite force, respectively, and that these functional differences are consistent with diet and dentition. Our results suggest that in both taxa, insertion of jaw adductor muscles on a central tendon functions to straighten and sustain muscle fibers to nearly orthogonal insertion angles as the mouth opens. We argue that this jaw muscle arrangement allows high bite forces to be maintained across a wider range of gape angles than observed in mammalian models. Finally, our data suggest that the jaws of sub-adult great whites are mechanically vulnerable when handling large prey. In addition to ontogenetic changes in dentition, further mineralization of the jaws may be required to effectively feed on marine mammals. Our study is the first comparative FEA of the jaws for any fish species. Results highlight the potential of FEA for testing previously intractable questions regarding feeding mechanisms in sharks and other vertebrates. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Growth-Prediction Model for Blue Mussels (Mytilus edulis on Future Optimally Thinned Farm-Ropes in Great Belt (Denmark

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Poul S. Larsen

2016-07-01

Full Text Available A recently developed BioEnergetic Growth (BEG model for blue mussels (Mytilus edulis, valid for juvenile mussels, has been further developed to an ‘extended model’ and an alternative ‘ad hoc BEG model’ valid for post-metamorphic mussels, where the latter accounts for changing ambient chl a concentration. It was used to predict the growth of M. edulis on optimally thinned farm-ropes in Great Belt (Denmark, from newly settled post-metamorphic mussels of an initial shell size of 0.8 mm to marketable juvenile 30–35 mm ‘mini-mussels’. Such mussels will presumably in the near future be introduced as a new Danish, smaller-sized consumer product. Field data for actual growth (from Day 0 = 14 June 2011 showed that size of ‘mini-mussel’ was reached on Day 109 (Oct 1 and length 38 mm on Day 178 (Dec 9 while the corresponding predictions using the extended model were Day 121 (Oct 13 and Day 159 (Nov 20. Similar results were obtained by use of the ad hoc BEG model which also demonstrated the sensitivity of growth prediction to levels of chl a concentration, but less to temperature. The results suggest that it is possible (when the conditions are optimal, i.e., no intraspecific competition ensured by sufficient thinning to produce ‘mini-mussels’ in Great Belt during one season, but not the usual marketable 45-mm mussels. We suggest that the prediction model may be used as a practical instrument to evaluate to what degree the actual growth of mussels on farm ropes due to intraspecific competition may deviate from the potential (optimal growth under specified chl a and temperature conditions, and this implies that the effect of thinning to optimize the individual growth by eliminating intraspecific competition can be rationally evaluated.

Satellite remote sensing for modeling and monitoring of water quality in the Great Lakes

Science.gov (United States)

Coffield, S. R.; Crosson, W. L.; Al-Hamdan, M. Z.; Barik, M. G.

2017-12-01

Consistent and accurate monitoring of the Great Lakes is critical for protecting the freshwater ecosystems, quantifying the impacts of climate change, understanding harmful algal blooms, and safeguarding public health for the millions who rely on the Lakes for drinking water. While ground-based monitoring is often hampered by limited sampling resolution, satellite data provide surface reflectance measurements at much more complete spatial and temporal scales. In this study, we implemented NASA data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) onboard the Aqua satellite to build robust water quality models. We developed and validated models for chlorophyll-a, nitrogen, phosphorus, and turbidity based on combinations of the six MODIS Ocean Color bands (412, 443, 488, 531, 547, and 667nm) for 2003-2016. Second, we applied these models to quantify trends in water quality through time and in relation to changing land cover, runoff, and climate for six selected coastal areas in Lakes Michigan and Erie. We found strongest models for chlorophyll-a in Lake Huron (R2 = 0.75), nitrogen in Lake Ontario (R2=0.66), phosphorus in Lake Erie (R2=0.60), and turbidity in Lake Erie (R2=0.86). These offer improvements over previous efforts to model chlorophyll-a while adding nitrogen, phosphorus, and turbidity. Mapped water quality parameters showed high spatial variability, with nitrogen concentrated largely in Superior and coastal Michigan and high turbidity, phosphorus, and chlorophyll near urban and agricultural areas of Erie. Temporal analysis also showed concurrence of high runoff or precipitation and nitrogen in Lake Michigan offshore of wetlands, suggesting that water quality in these areas is sensitive to changes in climate.

Figuring Somepin 'bout the Great Depression. Learning Page Lesson Plan.

Science.gov (United States)

McElroy, Amy; Pietsch, Chris

These 10th and 11th grade lessons plans related to the Great Depression and the novel "The Grapes of Wrath" help students to: develop research skills and strategies, such as keyword searches, for finding information; recognize and use the different voices of migrants; and understand the politics of migration and the Great Depression. By…

Environmental fate and ecotoxicological risk of the antibiotic sulfamethoxazole across the Katari catchment (Bolivian Altiplano) : application of the GREAT-ER model

OpenAIRE

Archundia, D.; Boithias, Laurie; Duwig, Céline; Morel, M. C.; Aviles, G. F.; Martins, J. M. F.

2018-01-01

Antibiotics are emergent contaminants that can induce adverse effects in terrestrial and aquatic organisms. The surface water compartment is of particular concern as it receives direct waste water discharge. Modeling is highlighted as an essential tool to understand the fate and behavior of these compounds and to assess their eco-toxicological risk. This study aims at testing the ability of the GREAT-ER model in simulating sulfamethoxazole (SMX) concentrations in the surface waters of the ari...

Tsunami Numerical Simulation for Hypothetical Giant or Great Earthquakes along the Izu-Bonin Trench

Science.gov (United States)

Harada, T.; Ishibashi, K.; Satake, K.

2013-12-01

. Tsunami propagation was computed by the finite-difference method of the non-liner long-wave equations with Corioli's force (Satake, 1995, PAGEOPH) in the area of 130 - 145°E and 25 - 37°N. The 15-seconds gridded bathymetry data are used. The tsunami propagations for eight hours since the faulting of the various fault models were computed. As a result, large tsunamis from assumed giant/great both interplate and outer-rise earthquakes reach the Ryukyu Islands' coasts and the Pacific coasts of Kyushu, Shikoku and western Honshu west of Kanto. Therefore, the tsunami simulations support the Ishibashi and Harada's hypothesis. At the time of writing, the best yet preliminary model to reproduce the 1605 tsunami heights is an outer-rise steep fault model which extends 26.5 - 29.0°N (300 km of length) and with 16.7 m of average slip (Mw 8.6). We will examine tsunami behavior in the Pacific Ocean from this fault model. To examine our results, field investigations of tsunami deposits in the Bonin Islands and discussions on plate dynamics and seismogenic characteristics along the Izu-Bonin trench are necessary.

Investigation of thermalization in giant-spin models by different Lindblad schemes

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Beckmann, Christian; Schnack, Jürgen, E-mail: jschnack@uni-bielefeld.de

2017-09-01

Highlights: • The non-equilibrium magnetization is investigated with quantum master equations that rest on Lindblad schemes. • It is studied how different couplings to the bath modify the magnetization. • Various field protocols are employed; relaxation times are deduced. • Result: the time evolution depends strongly on the details of the transition operator used in the Lindblad term. - Abstract: The theoretical understanding of time-dependence in magnetic quantum systems is of great importance in particular for cases where a unitary time evolution is accompanied by relaxation processes. A key example is given by the dynamics of single-molecule magnets where quantum tunneling of the magnetization competes with thermal relaxation over the anisotropy barrier. In this article we investigate how good a Lindblad approach describes the relaxation in giant spin models and how the result depends on the employed operator that transmits the action of the thermal bath.

Great apes prefer cooked food.

Science.gov (United States)

Wobber, Victoria; Hare, Brian; Wrangham, Richard

2008-08-01

The cooking hypothesis proposes that a diet of cooked food was responsible for diverse morphological and behavioral changes in human evolution. However, it does not predict whether a preference for cooked food evolved before or after the control of fire. This question is important because the greater the preference shown by a raw-food-eating hominid for the properties present in cooked food, the more easily cooking should have been adopted following the control of fire. Here we use great apes to model food preferences by Paleolithic hominids. We conducted preference tests with various plant and animal foods to determine whether great apes prefer food items raw or cooked. We found that several populations of captive apes tended to prefer their food cooked, though with important exceptions. These results suggest that Paleolithic hominids would likewise have spontaneously preferred cooked food to raw, exapting a pre-existing preference for high-quality, easily chewed foods onto these cooked items. The results, therefore, challenge the hypothesis that the control of fire preceded cooking by a significant period.

The role of great auricular-facial nerve neurorrhaphy in facial nerve damage

OpenAIRE

Sun, Yan; Liu, Limei; Han, Yuechen; Xu, Lei; Zhang, Daogong; Wang, Haibo

2015-01-01

Background: Facial nerve is easy to be damaged, and there are many reconstructive methods for facial nerve reconstructive, such as facial nerve end to end anastomosis, the great auricular nerve graft, the sural nerve graft, or hypoglossal-facial nerve anastomosis. However, there is still little study about great auricular-facial nerve neurorrhaphy. The aim of the present study was to identify the role of great auricular-facial nerve neurorrhaphy and the mechanism. Methods: Rat models of facia...

Evapotranspiration in winter wheat under different grazing and tillage practices in the southern Great Plains

Science.gov (United States)

Precipitation in the Southern Great Plains (SGP) is highly variable both spatially and temporally with recurring periods of severe drought. Winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) – summer fallow system with conventional tillage is the principal dryland cropping system in this region for both grazing an...

Great Lakes Science Center

Data.gov (United States)

Federal Laboratory Consortium — Since 1927, Great Lakes Science Center (GLSC) research has provided critical information for the sound management of Great Lakes fish populations and other important...

Unemployment of Non-western Immigrants in the Great Recession

OpenAIRE

Cerveny, J.; Ours, J.C. van

2013-01-01

Abstract: This paper examines whether unemployment of non-western immigrant workers in the Netherlands was disproportionally affected by the Great Recession. We analyze unemployment data covering the period November 2007 to February 2013 finding that the Great Recession affected unemployment rates of non-western immigrant workers in absolute terms more than unemployment rates of native workers. However, in relative terms there is not much of a difference. We also find that the sensitivity of ...

Differences in the Effects of the Great Recession on Health Outcomes among Minority Working-Age Adults.

Science.gov (United States)

Towne, Samuel D; Probst, Janice C; Hardin, James W; Bell, Bethany A; Glover, Saundra

2015-03-01

We examined the effects of the Great Recession (December 2007-June 2009) among vulnerable adults who may be at high risk of poor health and low access to health care. Our primary outcomes of interest were self-reported health status (fair/poor versus good/very good/excellent), and foregoing needed health care due to cost in the past 12 months. Racial and ethnic minorities, except Asians, experienced higher rates of poor/fair health and higher rates of forgone medical care than did White adults. Hispanic and AIAN adults experienced differential effects of the Great Recession, as compared to White adults. Understanding how vulnerable populations react in times of economic flux will enable policy makers to identify strategies/policies to lessen the burden experienced by vulnerable adults.

Gender and Race/Ethnicity Differences in Mental Health Care Use before and during the Great Recession.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Jie; Dagher, Rada

2016-04-01

This study examines the changes in health care utilization for mental health disorders among patients who were diagnosed with depressive and/or anxiety disorders during the Great Recession 2007-2009 in the USA. Negative binomial regressions are used to estimate the association of the economic recession and mental health care use for females and males separately. Results show that prescription drug utilization (e.g., antidepressants, psychotropic medications) increased significantly during the economic recession 2007-2009 for both females and males. Physician visits for mental health disorders decreased during the same period. Results show that racial disparities in mental health care might have increased, while ethnic disparities persisted during the Great Recession. Future research should separately examine mental health care utilization by gender and race/ethnicity.

Predicting Great Lakes fish yields: tools and constraints

Science.gov (United States)

Lewis, C.A.; Schupp, D.H.; Taylor, W.W.; Collins, J.J.; Hatch, Richard W.

1987-01-01

Prediction of yield is a critical component of fisheries management. The development of sound yield prediction methodology and the application of the results of yield prediction are central to the evolution of strategies to achieve stated goals for Great Lakes fisheries and to the measurement of progress toward those goals. Despite general availability of species yield models, yield prediction for many Great Lakes fisheries has been poor due to the instability of the fish communities and the inadequacy of available data. A host of biological, institutional, and societal factors constrain both the development of sound predictions and their application to management. Improved predictive capability requires increased stability of Great Lakes fisheries through rehabilitation of well-integrated communities, improvement of data collection, data standardization and information-sharing mechanisms, and further development of the methodology for yield prediction. Most important is the creation of a better-informed public that will in turn establish the political will to do what is required.

What was the population of Great Zimbabwe (CE1000 - 1800)?

Science.gov (United States)

Chirikure, Shadreck; Moultrie, Thomas; Bandama, Foreman; Dandara, Collett; Manyanga, Munyaradzi

2017-01-01

The World Heritage Site of Great Zimbabwe is one of the most iconic and largest archaeological settlements in Africa. It was the hub of direct and indirect trade which internally connected various areas of southern Africa, and externally linked them with East Africa and the Near and Far East. Archaeologists believe that at its peak, Great Zimbabwe had a fully urban population of 20,000 people concentrated in approximately 2.9 square kilometres (40 percent of 720 ha). This translates to a population density of 6,897, which is comparable with that of some of the most populous regions of the world in the 21st century. Here, we combine archaeological, ethnographic and historical evidence with ecological and statistical modelling to demonstrate that the total population estimate for the site's nearly 800-year occupational duration (CE1000-1800), after factoring in generational succession, is unlikely to have exceeded 10,000 people. This conclusion is strongly firmed up by the absence of megamiddens at the site, the chronological differences between several key areas of the settlement traditionally assumed to be coeval, and the historically documented low populations recorded for the sub-continent between CE1600 and 1950.

What was the population of Great Zimbabwe (CE1000 - 1800?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shadreck Chirikure

Full Text Available The World Heritage Site of Great Zimbabwe is one of the most iconic and largest archaeological settlements in Africa. It was the hub of direct and indirect trade which internally connected various areas of southern Africa, and externally linked them with East Africa and the Near and Far East. Archaeologists believe that at its peak, Great Zimbabwe had a fully urban population of 20,000 people concentrated in approximately 2.9 square kilometres (40 percent of 720 ha. This translates to a population density of 6,897, which is comparable with that of some of the most populous regions of the world in the 21st century. Here, we combine archaeological, ethnographic and historical evidence with ecological and statistical modelling to demonstrate that the total population estimate for the site's nearly 800-year occupational duration (CE1000-1800, after factoring in generational succession, is unlikely to have exceeded 10,000 people. This conclusion is strongly firmed up by the absence of megamiddens at the site, the chronological differences between several key areas of the settlement traditionally assumed to be coeval, and the historically documented low populations recorded for the sub-continent between CE1600 and 1950.

The WRF model forecast-derived low-level wind shear climatology over the United States great plains

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Storm, B. [Wind Science and Engineering Research Center, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX (United States); Basu, S. [Atmospheric Science Group, Department of Geosciences, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX (United States)

2010-07-01

For wind resource assessment projects, it is common practice to use a power-law relationship (U(z) {proportional_to} z{sup {alpha}}) and a fixed shear exponent ({alpha} = 1/7) to extrapolate the observed wind speed from a low measurement level to high turbine hub-heights. However, recent studies using tall-tower observations have found that the annual average shear exponents at several locations over the United States Great Plains (USGP) are significantly higher than 1/7. These findings highlight the critical need for detailed spatio-temporal characterizations of wind shear climatology over the USGP, where numerous large wind farms will be constructed in the foreseeable future. In this paper, a new generation numerical weather prediction model - the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, a fast and relatively inexpensive alternative to time-consuming and costly tall-tower projects, is utilized to determine whether it can reliably estimate the shear exponent and the magnitude of the directional shear at any arbitrary location over the USGP. Our results indicate that the WRF model qualitatively captures several low-level wind shear characteristics. However, there is definitely room for physics parameterization improvements for the WRF model to reliably represent the lower part of the atmospheric boundary layer. (author)

Application of a circulation model in waters, based in the difference method, for bays

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rosa, P.A.C.

1985-01-01

The Knowledge of circulation of water in bays, in addition to the possibility of simulation future conditions, can be of great interest in solving problems related to the cooling water for Nuclear Power Plants, study of sediments and water polution, in addition to the study of civil engineering works planned in bays. A Numerical Circulation Model of water in bays, is applied to the conditions of Sepetiba Bay at Rio de Janeiro coast. This System of Partial Differential Equations that constitute the Model, were solved by the Finite Difference Method, using a uniform cartesian grid for uniform time steps generating a bi-dimensional flow measurement of depth. The results obtained by comparing the values of the Model and measurements taken a bay were satisfactory, assuring its credibility and efficiency. A programming code was developed for the application providing outputing at any preditermined time steps, with discrimination of 30 seconds, the average levels, flows, velocities and depths of water of each grid spacing along the length of the bay in addition to a graphic of the flow. (Author) [pt

Great Lakes

Science.gov (United States)

Edsall, Thomas A.; Mac, Michael J.; Opler, Paul A.; Puckett Haecker, Catherine E.; Doran, Peter D.

1998-01-01

The Great Lakes region, as defined here, includes the Great Lakes and their drainage basins in Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and New York. The region also includes the portions of Minnesota, Wisconsin, and the 21 northernmost counties of Illinois that lie in the Mississippi River drainage basin, outside the floodplain of the river. The region spans about 9º of latitude and 20º of longitude and lies roughly halfway between the equator and the North Pole in a lowland corridor that extends from the Gulf of Mexico to the Arctic Ocean.The Great Lakes are the most prominent natural feature of the region (Fig. 1). They have a combined surface area of about 245,000 square kilometers and are among the largest, deepest lakes in the world. They are the largest single aggregation of fresh water on the planet (excluding the polar ice caps) and are the only glacial feature on Earth visible from the surface of the moon (The Nature Conservancy 1994a).The Great Lakes moderate the region’s climate, which presently ranges from subarctic in the north to humid continental warm in the south (Fig. 2), reflecting the movement of major weather masses from the north and south (U.S. Department of the Interior 1970; Eichenlaub 1979). The lakes act as heat sinks in summer and heat sources in winter and are major reservoirs that help humidify much of the region. They also create local precipitation belts in areas where air masses are pushed across the lakes by prevailing winds, pick up moisture from the lake surface, and then drop that moisture over land on the other side of the lake. The mean annual frost-free period—a general measure of the growing-season length for plants and some cold-blooded animals—varies from 60 days at higher elevations in the north to 160 days in lakeshore areas in the south. The climate influences the general distribution of wild plants and animals in the region and also influences the activities and distribution of the human

The GREAT-ER model in China: Evaluating the risk of both treated and untreated wastewater discharges and a consideration to the future.

Science.gov (United States)

Jackson, Benjamin; Jones, Kevin; Sweetman, Andrew

2016-04-01

As a result of rapid economic development, the production and usage of chemicals in China has risen significantly. This has resulted in China's environment becoming degraded. The Chinese government has attempted to ease these problems with significant investment towards upgrading the wastewater network. These efforts have initially focused upon large cities; progressing towards smaller populations within the most recent 5 year plan. However rural populations were largely overlooked, ~90% of rural settlements do not have treatment facilities for their wastewater. The next (13th) five year plan is a great opportunity to improve upon wastewater infrastructure. This transition is particularly important and it is essential for the government to prioritise settlements to provide treatment facilities and to improve water quality in receiving waters. This study focuses upon the use of a catchment model in order make progress towards this goal. A reliable model which can capture the complexity of the catchment is needed, but one without complexity in itself, in order for it to be developed and validated without an excessive requirement for data. The Geo-referenced Regional Exposure Assessment Tool for European Rivers (GREAT-ER) model is a catchment-scale stochastic-deterministic GIS model. It is primarily used for higher-tier chemical risk assessment. Emissions are from point source only and are calculated based upon population and calculated emission rates per capita. Dilution and transportation are determined using low-flow statistics within each stretch; calculated based upon catchment soil and topographic properties. Removal of the contaminant can occur prior to emission and in-stream. The lowest tier methodology applies a simple 1st-order removal rate and a flat percentage removal for in-stream and sewage treatment work removal respectively. The data requirements are relatively low, although still challenging for many situations. Many authors have reported reasonable

Financial innovation, macroeconomic volatility and the great moderation

OpenAIRE

Zaghini, Andrea; Bencivelli, Lorenzo

2012-01-01

In the paper we propose an assessment of the role of financial innovation in shaping US macroeconomic dynamics. We extend an existing model by Christiano, Eichenbaum and Evans which studied the transmission of monetary policy impulses to business and corporate sector financing variables just before the Great Moderation period. By investigating the properties of the model over a longer time span we show that in the later period a change in the monetary policy transmission mechanism is likely t...

Credit spread variability in U.S. business cycles: the Great Moderation versus the Great Recession

OpenAIRE

Hylton Hollander; Guangling Liu

2014-01-01

This paper establishes the prevailing financial factors that influence credit spread variability, and its impact on the U.S. business cycle over the Great Moderation and Great Recession periods. To do so, we develop a dynamic general equilibrium framework with a central role of financial intermediation and equity assets. Over the Great Moderation and Great Recession periods, we find an important role for bank market power (sticky rate adjustments and loan rate markups) on credit spread variab...

Credit spread variability in U.S. business cycles: The Great Moderation versus the Great Recession

OpenAIRE

Hylton Hollander and Guangling Liu

2014-01-01

This paper establishes the prevailing financial factors that influence credit spread variability, and its impact on the U.S. business cycle over the Great Moderation and Great Recession periods. To do so, we develop a dynamic general equilibrium framework with a central role of financial intermediation and equity assets. Over the Great Moderation and Great Recession periods, we find an important role for bank market power (sticky rate adjustments and loan rate markups) on credit spread variab...

Urbanization Is Associated with Divergence in Pace-of-Life in Great Tits

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anne Charmantier

2017-05-01

Full Text Available As an extension of the classic life history theory, the recently highlighted pace-of-life syndrome hypothesis predicts the coevolution of behavioral, physiological and life-history traits. For instance, bolder and shyer individuals do not only differ in personality profiles, but also in neuro-endocrinology and breeding patterns. While theory predicts that bolder (i.e., proactive, more aggressive individuals should colonize more rapidly urbanized habitats than shyer (i.e., reactive, less aggressive individuals, it is also predicted that across generations, adaptive selection processes could favor shyer individuals that are more sensitive to novel environmental cues. Here we compared two personality traits (handling aggression, exploration score in a novel environment, one physiological trait related to stress response (breath rate and four breeding traits (lay date, clutch size, hatching success and fledging success in a rural and an urban study population of Mediterranean great tits Parus major. Mixed models revealed strong phenotypic divergence between forest and city in most traits explored, in particular in personality, whereby urban great tits were more reactive to stress and faster explorers compared to rural birds (yet not more aggressive. Urban birds also laid smaller broods earlier in spring compared to their rural conspecifics, and city broods resulted in lower hatching success yet interestingly fledging success was similar. Nest-box centered measures of anthropogenic (artificial light, pedestrians, and cars perturbation and resource abundance allowed us to go beyond the classical forest/city comparison by exploring the phenotypic variation across an urbanization gradient. This revealed that high urbanization in nest-box surroundings was associated overall with earlier breeding and smaller clutches, but also with faster breath rate, although these trends showed strong annual variation. Ongoing rapid urbanization and non-random gene flow

Food-related life style in Great Britain

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Grunert, Klaus G.; Brunsø, Karen; Bisp, Søren

1995-01-01

Executive summary 1. This report is about an investigation of food-related lifestyle in Great Britain, based on a representative sample of 1000 households. 2. The British consumers are described by five segments, which differ in how and to which extent they use food and cooking to attain their ce...

The great descriptor melting pot: mixing descriptors for the common good of QSAR models.

Science.gov (United States)

Tseng, Yufeng J; Hopfinger, Anton J; Esposito, Emilio Xavier

2012-01-01

The usefulness and utility of QSAR modeling depends heavily on the ability to estimate the values of molecular descriptors relevant to the endpoints of interest followed by an optimized selection of descriptors to form the best QSAR models from a representative set of the endpoints of interest. The performance of a QSAR model is directly related to its molecular descriptors. QSAR modeling, specifically model construction and optimization, has benefited from its ability to borrow from other unrelated fields, yet the molecular descriptors that form QSAR models have remained basically unchanged in both form and preferred usage. There are many types of endpoints that require multiple classes of descriptors (descriptors that encode 1D through multi-dimensional, 4D and above, content) needed to most fully capture the molecular features and interactions that contribute to the endpoint. The advantages of QSAR models constructed from multiple, and different, descriptor classes have been demonstrated in the exploration of markedly different, and principally biological systems and endpoints. Multiple examples of such QSAR applications using different descriptor sets are described and that examined. The take-home-message is that a major part of the future of QSAR analysis, and its application to modeling biological potency, ADME-Tox properties, general use in virtual screening applications, as well as its expanding use into new fields for building QSPR models, lies in developing strategies that combine and use 1D through nD molecular descriptors.

Comparing flood loss models of different complexity

Science.gov (United States)

Schröter, Kai; Kreibich, Heidi; Vogel, Kristin; Riggelsen, Carsten; Scherbaum, Frank; Merz, Bruno

2013-04-01

Any deliberation on flood risk requires the consideration of potential flood losses. In particular, reliable flood loss models are needed to evaluate cost-effectiveness of mitigation measures, to assess vulnerability, for comparative risk analysis and financial appraisal during and after floods. In recent years, considerable improvements have been made both concerning the data basis and the methodological approaches used for the development of flood loss models. Despite of that, flood loss models remain an important source of uncertainty. Likewise the temporal and spatial transferability of flood loss models is still limited. This contribution investigates the predictive capability of different flood loss models in a split sample cross regional validation approach. For this purpose, flood loss models of different complexity, i.e. based on different numbers of explaining variables, are learned from a set of damage records that was obtained from a survey after the Elbe flood in 2002. The validation of model predictions is carried out for different flood events in the Elbe and Danube river basins in 2002, 2005 and 2006 for which damage records are available from surveys after the flood events. The models investigated are a stage-damage model, the rule based model FLEMOps+r as well as novel model approaches which are derived using data mining techniques of regression trees and Bayesian networks. The Bayesian network approach to flood loss modelling provides attractive additional information concerning the probability distribution of both model predictions and explaining variables.

Decay model for biocide treatment of unballasted vessels: application for the Laurentian Great Lakes.

Science.gov (United States)

Sano, Larissa L; Bartell, Steven M; Landrum, Peter F

2005-10-01

A biocide decay model was developed to assess the potential efficacy and environmental impacts associated with using glutaraldehyde to treat unballasted overseas vessels trading on the Laurentian Great Lakes. The results of Monte Carlo simulations indicate that effective glutaraldehyde concentrations can be maintained for the duration of a vessel's oceanic transit (approximately 9-12 days): During this transit, glutaraldehyde concentrations were predicted to decrease by approximately 10% from initial treatment levels (e.g., 500 mgL(-1)). In terms of environmental impacts, mean glutaraldehyde concentrations released at Duluth-Superior Harbor, MN were predicted to be 100-fold lower than initial treatment concentrations, and ranged from 3.2 mgL(-1) (2 SD: 2.74) in April to 0.7 mgL(-1) (2 SD: 1.28) in August. Sensitivity analyses indicated that the re-ballasting dilution factor was the major variable governing final glutaraldehyde concentrations; however, lake surface temperatures became increasingly important during the warmer summer months.

Great microwave bursts and hard X-rays from solar flares

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wiehl, H.J.; Batchelor, D.A.; Crannell, C.J.; Dennis, B.R.; Price, P.N.

1983-06-01

The microwave and hard X-ray charateristics of 13 solar flares that produced microwave fluxes greater than 500 Solar Flux Units were analyzed. These Great Microwave Bursts were observed in the frequency range from 3 to 35 GHz at Berne, and simultaneous hard X-ray observations were made in the energy range from 30 to 500 keV with the Hard X-Ray Burst Spectrometer on the Solar Maximum Mission spacecraft. The principal aim of this analysis is to determine whether or not the same distribution of energetic electrons can explain both emissions. Correlations were found between respective temporal characteristics and, for the first time, between microwave and hard X-ray spectral characteristics. A single-temperature and a multi-temperature model from the literature were tested for consistency with the coincident X-ray and microwave spectra at microwave burst maximum. Four events are inconsistent with both of the models tested, and neither of the models attempts to explain the high-frequency part of the microwave spectrum. A model in which the emissions above and below the peak frequency originate in two different parts of a diverging magnetic loop is proposed. With this model the entire microwave spectrum of all but one of the events is explained

Albinism in the Great Gray Owl (Strix nebulosa) and other owls

Science.gov (United States)

Pentti Alaja; Heimo Mikkola

1997-01-01

An incomplete albino Great Gray Owl (Strix nebulosa) was observed in Vesanto and Kajaani, Finland, 1994-1995. The literature pertaining to albinism in owls indicates that total and incomplete albinism has only been reported in 13 different owl species, the Great Gray Owl being the only species with more than five records. Thus six to seven incomplete...

Pricing derivatives under Lévy models modern finite-difference and pseudo-differential operators approach

CERN Document Server

Itkin, Andrey

2017-01-01

This monograph presents a novel numerical approach to solving partial integro-differential equations arising in asset pricing models with jumps, which greatly exceeds the efficiency of existing approaches. The method, based on pseudo-differential operators and several original contributions to the theory of finite-difference schemes, is new as applied to the Lévy processes in finance, and is herein presented for the first time in a single volume. The results within, developed in a series of research papers, are collected and arranged together with the necessary background material from Lévy processes, the modern theory of finite-difference schemes, the theory of M-matrices and EM-matrices, etc., thus forming a self-contained work that gives the reader a smooth introduction to the subject. For readers with no knowledge of finance, a short explanation of the main financial terms and notions used in the book is given in the glossary. The latter part of the book demonstrates the efficacy of the method by solvin...

Estimating Spring Condensation on the Great Lakes

Science.gov (United States)

Meyer, A.; Welp, L.

2017-12-01

The Laurentian Great Lakes region provides opportunities for shipping, recreation, and consumptive water use to a large part of the United States and Canada. Water levels in the lakes fluctuate yearly, but attempts to model the system are inadequate because the water and energy budgets are still not fully understood. For example, water levels in the Great Lakes experienced a 15-year low period ending in 2013, the recovery of which has been attributed partially to decreased evaporation and increased precipitation and runoff. Unlike precipitation, the exchange of water vapor between the lake and the atmosphere through evaporation or condensation is difficult to measure directly. However, estimates have been constructed using off-shore eddy covariance direct measurements of latent heat fluxes, remote sensing observations, and a small network of monitoring buoys. When the lake surface temperature is colder than air temperature as it is in spring, condensation is larger than evaporation. This is a relatively small component of the net annual water budget of the lakes, but the total amount of condensation may be important for seasonal energy fluxes and atmospheric deposition of pollutants and nutrients to the lakes. Seasonal energy fluxes determine, and are influenced by, ice cover, water and air temperatures, and evaporation in the Great Lakes. We aim to quantify the amount of spring condensation on the Great Lakes using the National Center for Atmospheric Prediction North American Regional Reanalysis (NCEP NARR) Data for Winter 2013 to Spring 2017 and compare the condensation values of spring seasons following high volume, high duration and low volume, low duration ice cover.

The influence of different measurement structures on NRTA test procedures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Beedgen, R.

1986-01-01

The development of sequential statistical test procedures in the area of near real time material accountancy (NRTA) mostly assumed a fixed measurement model of a given model facility. In this paper different measurement models (dispersion matrices) for a sequence of balance periods are studied. They are used to compare the detection probabilities of three different sequential test procedures for losses of material. It is shown how different plant models have an influence on the sensitivity of specified tests. Great importance for that analysis have the optimal loss patterns in each measurement situation

Effects of heavy metal exposure on the condition and health of adult great tits (Parus major)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dauwe, Tom; Janssens, Ellen; Eens, Marcel

2006-01-01

We examined the possible effects of heavy metal exposure on the quality and health of adult great tits (Parus major) at four study sites along a pollution gradient near a non-ferrous smelter in Belgium. Tarsus length, wing length, body mass and condition of great tits were compared with respect to study site, age (first-year and older great tits), sex and season (birds caught in winter and during breeding). Tarsus length did not differ significantly among study sites. The wing length of great tits was larger at the study site furthest from the smelter, especially for older great tits. The length of the outermost tail feathers, however, did not differ significantly among study sites. We found no signs of loss of body mass or condition towards the pollution source. The body mass and condition was lowest for female great tits at the site furthest from the smelter, especially during winter. Haematocrit values did not differ significantly among sites. Overall, we found no clear significant effects of heavy metal pollution on morphological measurements and health parameters of great tits. - Heavy metal pollution had no clear effect on condition and health, but this may have been masked by habitat quality differences and gene flow

What Makes a Great Journal Great in Economics? The Singer Not the Song.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

C-L. Chang (Chia-Lin); M.J. McAleer (Michael); L. Oxley (Les)

2010-01-01

textabstractThe paper is concerned with analysing what makes a great journal great in economics, based on quantifiable measures. Alternative Research Assessment Measures (RAM) are discussed, with an emphasis on the Thomson Reuters ISI Web of Science database (hereafter ISI). The various ISI RAM that

Great Basin Experimental Range: Annotated bibliography

Science.gov (United States)

E. Durant McArthur; Bryce A. Richardson; Stanley G. Kitchen

2013-01-01

This annotated bibliography documents the research that has been conducted on the Great Basin Experimental Range (GBER, also known as the Utah Experiment Station, Great Basin Station, the Great Basin Branch Experiment Station, Great Basin Experimental Center, and other similar name variants) over the 102 years of its existence. Entries were drawn from the original...

An optimal implicit staggered-grid finite-difference scheme based on the modified Taylor-series expansion with minimax approximation method for elastic modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Lei; Yan, Hongyong; Liu, Hong

2017-03-01

Implicit staggered-grid finite-difference (ISFD) scheme is competitive for its great accuracy and stability, whereas its coefficients are conventionally determined by the Taylor-series expansion (TE) method, leading to a loss in numerical precision. In this paper, we modify the TE method using the minimax approximation (MA), and propose a new optimal ISFD scheme based on the modified TE (MTE) with MA method. The new ISFD scheme takes the advantage of the TE method that guarantees great accuracy at small wavenumbers, and keeps the property of the MA method that keeps the numerical errors within a limited bound at the same time. Thus, it leads to great accuracy for numerical solution of the wave equations. We derive the optimal ISFD coefficients by applying the new method to the construction of the objective function, and using a Remez algorithm to minimize its maximum. Numerical analysis is made in comparison with the conventional TE-based ISFD scheme, indicating that the MTE-based ISFD scheme with appropriate parameters can widen the wavenumber range with high accuracy, and achieve greater precision than the conventional ISFD scheme. The numerical modeling results also demonstrate that the MTE-based ISFD scheme performs well in elastic wave simulation, and is more efficient than the conventional ISFD scheme for elastic modeling.

American undergraduate students' value development during the Great Recession.

Science.gov (United States)

Park, Heejung; Twenge, Jean M; Greenfield, Patricia M

2017-02-01

The Great Recession's influence on American undergraduate students' values was examined, testing Greenfield's and Kasser's theories concerning value development during economic downturns. Study 1 utilised aggregate-level data to investigate (a) population-level value changes between the pre-recession (2004-2006: n = 824,603) and recession freshman cohort (2008-2010: n = 662,262) and (b) overall associations of population-level values with national economic climates over long-term periods by correlating unemployment rates and concurrent aggregate-level values across 1966-2015 (n = 10 million). Study 2 examined individual-level longitudinal value development from freshman to senior year, and whether the developmental trajectories differed between those who completed undergraduate education before the Great Recession (freshmen in 2002, n = 12,792) versus those who encountered the Great Recession during undergraduate years (freshmen in 2006, n = 13,358). Results suggest American undergraduate students' increased communitarianism (supporting Greenfield) and materialism (supporting Kasser) during the Great Recession. The recession also appears to have slowed university students' development of positive self-views. Results contribute to the limited literature on the Great Recession's influence on young people's values. They also offer theoretical and practical implications, as values of this privileged group of young adults are important shapers of societal values, decisions, and policies. © 2016 International Union of Psychological Science.

Unraveling the complex local-scale flows influencing ozone patterns in the southern Great Lakes of North America

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

I. Levy

2010-11-01

Full Text Available This study examines the complexity of various processes influencing summertime ozone levels in the southern Great Lakes region of North America. Results from the Border Air Quality and Meteorology (BAQS-Met field campaign in the summer of 2007 are examined with respect to land-lake differences and local meteorology using a large array of ground-based measurements, aircraft data, and simulation results from a high resolution (2.5 km regional air-quality model, AURAMS.

Analyses of average ozone mixing ratio from the entire BAQS-Met intensive campaign period support previous findings that ozone levels are higher over the southern Great Lakes than over the adjacent land. However, there is great heterogeneity in the spatial distribution of surface ozone over the lakes, particularly over Lake Erie during the day, with higher levels located over the southwestern end of the lake. Model results suggest that some of these increased ozone levels are due to local emission sources in large nearby urban centers. While an ozone reservoir layer is predicted by the AURAMS model over Lake Erie at night, the land-lake differences in ozone mixing ratios are most pronounced during the night in a shallow inversion layer of about 200 m above the surface. After sunrise, these differences have a limited effect on the total mass of ozone over the lakes and land during the day, though they do cause elevated ozone levels in the lake-breeze air in some locations.

The model also predicts a mean vertical circulation during the day with an updraft over Detroit-Windsor and downdraft over Lake St. Clair, which transports ozone up to 1500 m above ground and results in high ozone over the lake.

Oscillations in ground-level ozone mixing ratios were observed on several nights and at several ground monitoring sites, with amplitudes of up to 40 ppbv and time periods of 15–40 min. Several possible mechanisms for these oscillations are discussed, but a

Impacts of CO/sub 2/-induced climatic change on water resources in the Great Lakes Basin

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cohen, S J

1986-01-01

Scenarios of CO/sub 2/-induced climatic change, based on models produced by the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab (GFDL), were used to estimate future changes in water supply in the Great Lakes Basin. The major components of annual Net Basin Supply, surface runoff and lake evaporation, were estimated using the Thornthwaite water balance model and the mass transfer approach, respectively. Two scenarios were derived from each climatic change model, one based on present normal winds, the other assuming reduced wind speeds. A third scenario was derived from GFDL, using wind speeds generated by the GFDL model. Results varied from a decrease in Net Basin Supply of 28.9% for GISS-normal winds, to a decrease of 11.7% for GFDL-reduced wind speeds. All five scenarios projected decreases. These differences in projection will have to be considered when performing climate impact studies, since economic activities affected by lake levels would probably experience different impacts under these scenarios.

TESTING TREE-CLASSIFIER VARIANTS AND ALTERNATE MODELING METHODOLOGIES IN THE EAST GREAT BASIN MAPPING UNIT OF THE SOUTHWEST REGIONAL GAP ANALYSIS PROJECT (SW REGAP)

Science.gov (United States)

We tested two methods for dataset generation and model construction, and three tree-classifier variants to identify the most parsimonious and thematically accurate mapping methodology for the SW ReGAP project. Competing methodologies were tested in the East Great Basin mapping un...

Comparison of cardiovascular mortality in the Great East Japan and the Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquakes　- a large-scale data analysis of death certificates.

Science.gov (United States)

Takegami, Misa; Miyamoto, Yoshihiro; Yasuda, Satoshi; Nakai, Michikazu; Nishimura, Kunihiro; Ogawa, Hisao; Hirata, Ken-Ichi; Toh, Ryuji; Morino, Yoshihiro; Nakamura, Motoyuki; Takeishi, Yasuchika; Shimokawa, Hiroaki; Naito, Hiroaki

2015-01-01

Large earthquakes have been associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality. In Japan, the 1995 Great Hanshin-Awaji (H-A) Earthquake was an urban-underground-type earthquake, whereas the 2011 Great East Japan (GEJ) Earthquake was an ocean-trench type. In the present study, we examined how these different earthquake types affected CVD mortality. We examined death certificate data from 2008 to 2012 for 131 municipalities in Iwate, Miyagi, and Fukushima prefectures (n=320,348) and from 1992 to 1996 for 220 municipalities in Hyogo, Osaka, and Kyoto prefectures (n=592,670). A Poisson regression model showed significant increases in the monthly numbers of acute myocardial infarction (AMI)-related deaths (incident rate ratio [IRR] GEJ=1.34, P=0.001; IRR of H-A=1.57, Pdeaths (IRR of GEJ=1.42, Pdeaths remained significant only for H-A (IRR=1.13, P=0.029). When analyzing the standardized mortality ratio (SMR) after the earthquakes using the Cochran-Armitage trend test, seismic intensity was significantly associated with AMI mortality for 2 weeks after both the GEJ (P for trend=0.089) and H-A earthquakes (P for trend=0.005). Following the GEJ and H-A earthquakes, there was a sharp increase in CVD mortality. The effect of the disaster was sustained for months after the H-A earthquake, but was diminished after the GEJ Earthquake.

The 2010 Saturn's Great White Spot: Observations and models

Science.gov (United States)

Sanchez-Lavega, A.

2011-12-01

On December 5, 2010, a major storm erupted in Saturn's northern hemisphere at a planetographic latitude of 37.7 deg [1]. These phenomena are known as "Great White Spots" (GWS) and they have been observed once per Saturn year since the first case confidently reported in 1876. The last event occurred at Saturn's Equator in 1990 [2]. A GWS differs from similar smaller-scale storms in that it generates a planetary-scale disturbance that spreads zonally spanning the whole latitude band. We report on the evolution and motions of the 2010 GWS and its associated disturbance during the months following the outbreak, based mainly on high quality images obtained in the visual range submitted to the International Outer Planet Watch PVOL database [3], with the 1m telescope at Pic-du-Midi Observatory and the 2.2 m telescope at Calar Alto Observatory. The GWS "head source" extinguished by June 2011 implying that it survived about 6 months. Since this source is assumed to be produced by water moist convection, a reservoir of water vapor must exist at a depth of 10 bar and at the same time a disturbance producing the necessary convergence to trigger the ascending motions. The high temporal sampling and coverage allowed us to study the dynamics of the GWS in detail and the multi-wavelength observations provide information on its cloud top structure. We present non-linear simulations using the EPIC code of the evolution of the potential vorticity generated by a continuous Gaussian heat source extending from 10 bar to about 1 bar, that compare extraordinary well to the observed cloud field evolution. Acknowledgements: This work has been funded by Spanish MICIIN AYA2009-10701 with FEDER support and Grupos Gobierno Vasco IT-464-07. The presentation is done on behalf of the team listed in Reference [1]. [1]Sánchez-Lavega A., et al., Nature, 475, 71-74 (2011) [2]Sánchez-Lavega A., et al., Nature, 353, 397-401 (1991) [3]Hueso R., et al., Planet. Space Sci., 58, 1152-1159 (2010).

Primate social attention: Species differences and effects of individual experience in humans, great apes, and macaques.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fumihiro Kano

Full Text Available When viewing social scenes, humans and nonhuman primates focus on particular features, such as the models' eyes, mouth, and action targets. Previous studies reported that such viewing patterns vary significantly across individuals in humans, and also across closely-related primate species. However, the nature of these individual and species differences remains unclear, particularly among nonhuman primates. In large samples of human and nonhuman primates, we examined species differences and the effects of experience on patterns of gaze toward social movies. Experiment 1 examined the species differences across rhesus macaques, nonhuman apes (bonobos, chimpanzees, and orangutans, and humans while they viewed movies of various animals' species-typical behaviors. We found that each species had distinct viewing patterns of the models' faces, eyes, mouths, and action targets. Experiment 2 tested the effect of individuals' experience on chimpanzee and human viewing patterns. We presented movies depicting natural behaviors of chimpanzees to three groups of chimpanzees (individuals from a zoo, a sanctuary, and a research institute differing in their early social and physical experiences. We also presented the same movies to human adults and children differing in their expertise with chimpanzees (experts vs. novices or movie-viewing generally (adults vs. preschoolers. Individuals varied within each species in their patterns of gaze toward models' faces, eyes, mouths, and action targets depending on their unique individual experiences. We thus found that the viewing patterns for social stimuli are both individual- and species-specific in these closely-related primates. Such individual/species-specificities are likely related to both individual experience and species-typical temperament, suggesting that primate individuals acquire their unique attentional biases through both ontogeny and evolution. Such unique attentional biases may help them learn

Primate social attention: Species differences and effects of individual experience in humans, great apes, and macaques.

Science.gov (United States)

Kano, Fumihiro; Shepherd, Stephen V; Hirata, Satoshi; Call, Josep

2018-01-01

When viewing social scenes, humans and nonhuman primates focus on particular features, such as the models' eyes, mouth, and action targets. Previous studies reported that such viewing patterns vary significantly across individuals in humans, and also across closely-related primate species. However, the nature of these individual and species differences remains unclear, particularly among nonhuman primates. In large samples of human and nonhuman primates, we examined species differences and the effects of experience on patterns of gaze toward social movies. Experiment 1 examined the species differences across rhesus macaques, nonhuman apes (bonobos, chimpanzees, and orangutans), and humans while they viewed movies of various animals' species-typical behaviors. We found that each species had distinct viewing patterns of the models' faces, eyes, mouths, and action targets. Experiment 2 tested the effect of individuals' experience on chimpanzee and human viewing patterns. We presented movies depicting natural behaviors of chimpanzees to three groups of chimpanzees (individuals from a zoo, a sanctuary, and a research institute) differing in their early social and physical experiences. We also presented the same movies to human adults and children differing in their expertise with chimpanzees (experts vs. novices) or movie-viewing generally (adults vs. preschoolers). Individuals varied within each species in their patterns of gaze toward models' faces, eyes, mouths, and action targets depending on their unique individual experiences. We thus found that the viewing patterns for social stimuli are both individual- and species-specific in these closely-related primates. Such individual/species-specificities are likely related to both individual experience and species-typical temperament, suggesting that primate individuals acquire their unique attentional biases through both ontogeny and evolution. Such unique attentional biases may help them learn efficiently about their

Contrasting results from GWAS and QTL mapping on wing length in great reed warblers.

Science.gov (United States)

Hansson, Bengt; Sigeman, Hanna; Stervander, Martin; Tarka, Maja; Ponnikas, Suvi; Strandh, Maria; Westerdahl, Helena; Hasselquist, Dennis

2018-04-15

A major goal in evolutionary biology is to understand the genetic basis of adaptive traits. In migratory birds, wing morphology is such a trait. Our previous work on the great reed warbler (Acrocephalus arundinaceus) shows that wing length is highly heritable and under sexually antagonistic selection. Moreover, a quantitative trait locus (QTL) mapping analysis detected a pronounced QTL for wing length on chromosome 2, suggesting that wing morphology is partly controlled by genes with large effects. Here, we re-evaluate the genetic basis of wing length in great reed warblers using a genomewide association study (GWAS) approach based on restriction site-associated DNA sequencing (RADseq) data. We use GWAS models that account for relatedness between individuals and include covariates (sex, age and tarsus length). The resulting association landscape was flat with no peaks on chromosome 2 or elsewhere, which is in line with expectations for polygenic traits. Analysis of the distribution of p-values did not reveal biases, and the inflation factor was low. Effect sizes were however not uniformly distributed on some chromosomes, and the Z chromosome had weaker associations than autosomes. The level of linkage disequilibrium (LD) in the population decayed to background levels within c. 1 kbp. There could be several reasons to why our QTL study and GWAS gave contrasting results including differences in how associations are modelled (cosegregation in pedigree vs. LD associations), how covariates are accounted for in the models, type of marker used (multi- vs. biallelic), difference in power or a combination of these. Our study highlights that the genetic architecture even of highly heritable traits is difficult to characterize in wild populations. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

75 FR 6354 - NOAA Great Lakes Habitat Restoration Program Project Grants under the Great Lakes Restoration...

Science.gov (United States)

2010-02-09

...-04] RIN 0648-ZC10 NOAA Great Lakes Habitat Restoration Program Project Grants under the Great Lakes... Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Department of Commerce. ACTION: Notice of funding availability; Date... on January 19, 2010. That notice announced the NOAA Great Lakes Habitat Restoration Program Project...

Evaluation of the North American Land Data Assimilation System over the southern Great Plains during the warm season

Science.gov (United States)

Robock, Alan; Luo, Lifeng; Wood, Eric F.; Wen, Fenghua; Mitchell, Kenneth E.; Houser, Paul R.; Schaake, John C.; Lohmann, Dag; Cosgrove, Brian; Sheffield, Justin; Duan, Qingyun; Higgins, R. Wayne; Pinker, Rachel T.; Tarpley, J. Dan; Basara, Jeffery B.; Crawford, Kenneth C.

2003-11-01

North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) land surface models have been run for a retrospective period forced by atmospheric observations from the Eta analysis and actual precipitation and downward solar radiation to calculate land hydrology. We evaluated these simulations using in situ observations over the southern Great Plains for the periods of May-September of 1998 and 1999 by comparing the model outputs with surface latent, sensible, and ground heat fluxes at 24 Atmospheric Radiation Measurement/Cloud and Radiation Testbed stations and with soil temperature and soil moisture observations at 72 Oklahoma Mesonet stations. The standard NLDAS models do a fairly good job but with differences in the surface energy partition and in soil moisture between models and observations and among models during the summer, while they agree quite well on the soil temperature simulations. To investigate why, we performed a series of experiments accounting for differences between model-specified soil types and vegetation and those observed at the stations, and differences in model treatment of different soil types, vegetation properties, canopy resistance, soil column depth, rooting depth, root density, snow-free albedo, infiltration, aerodynamic resistance, and soil thermal diffusivity. The diagnosis and model enhancements demonstrate how the models can be improved so that they can be used in actual data assimilation mode.

Geoarchaeology of water management at Great Zimbabwe

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sulas, Federica; Pikirayi, Innocent; Sagiya, Munyaradzi Elton

In Africa, research on water management in urban contexts has often focussed rainfall, and the occurrence floods and droughts, whereas small-scale catchment systems and soil moisture regimes have received far less attention. This paper sets out to re-address the issue by examining the occurrence......, distribution and use of multiple water resources at the ancient urban landscape of Great Zimbabwe. Here, the rise and demise of the urban site have been linked to changing rainfall in the 1st mill. AD. Accordingly, rainfall shortages and consequent droughts eventually leading to the decline and abandonment...... of Great Zimbabwe at around 1550 AD. However, new research findings suggest a different scenario. Combining geoarchaeolological investigations, soil micromorphology and geochemistry with the study of historical sources and ethnographic records, new datasets indicate prolonged availability and diversified...

The Next Great Generation?

Science.gov (United States)

Brownstein, Andrew

2000-01-01

Discusses ideas from a new book, "Millennials Rising: The Next Great Generation," (by Neil Howe and William Strauss) suggesting that youth culture is on the cusp of a radical shift with the generation beginning with this year's college freshmen who are typically team oriented, optimistic, and poised for greatness on a global scale. Includes a…

The Effect of the Great Moderation on the U.S. Business Cycle in a Time-varying Multivariate Trend-cycle Model

OpenAIRE

Drew Creal; Siem Jan Koopman; Eric Zivot

2008-01-01

In this paper we investigate whether the dynamic properties of the U.S. business cycle have changed in the last fifty years. For this purpose we develop a flexible business cycle indicator that is constructed from a moderate set of macroeconomic time series. The coincident economic indicator is based on a multivariate trend-cycle decomposition model that accounts for time variation in macroeconomic volatility, known as the great moderation. In particular, we consider an unobserved components ...

Modelling the fate of marine debris along a complex shoreline: Lessons from the Great Barrier Reef

Science.gov (United States)

Critchell, K.; Grech, A.; Schlaefer, J.; Andutta, F. P.; Lambrechts, J.; Wolanski, E.; Hamann, M.

2015-12-01

The accumulation of floating anthropogenic debris in marine and coastal areas has environmental, economic, aesthetic, and human health impacts. Until now, modelling the transport of such debris has largely been restricted to the large-scales of open seas. We used oceanographic modelling to identify potential sites of debris accumulation along a rugged coastline with headlands, islands, rocky coasts and beaches. Our study site was the Great Barrier Reef World Heritage Area that has an emerging problem with debris accumulation. We found that the classical techniques of modelling the transport of floating debris models are only moderately successful due to a number of unknowns or assumptions, such as the value of the wind drift coefficient, the variability of the oceanic forcing and of the wind, the resuspension of some floating debris by waves, and the poorly known relative contribution of floating debris from urban rivers and commercial and recreational shipping. Nevertheless the model was successful in reproducing a number of observations such as the existence of hot spots of accumulation. The orientation of beaches to the prevailing wind direction affected the accumulation rate of debris. The wind drift coefficient and the exact timing of the release of the debris at sea affected little the movement of debris originating from rivers but it affected measurably that of debris originating from ships. It was thus possible to produce local hotspot maps for floating debris, especially those originating from rivers. Such modelling can be used to inform local management decisions, and it also identifies likely priority research areas to more reliably predict the trajectory and landing points of floating debris.

The Structured Process Modeling Theory (SPMT) : a cognitive view on why and how modelers benefit from structuring the process of process modeling

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Claes, J.; Vanderfeesten, I.T.P.; Gailly, F.; Grefen, P.W.P.J.; Poels, G.

2015-01-01

After observing various inexperienced modelers constructing a business process model based on the same textual case description, it was noted that great differences existed in the quality of the produced models. The impression arose that certain quality issues originated from cognitive failures

The great neurosis of Dr. Joseph Gerard.

Science.gov (United States)

Lefrère, Jean-Jacques; Rouillon, Frédéric

2013-01-01

The Great Neurosis, of Dr. Joseph Gerard, was published in 1889 in Paris. The book, intended for the general public, shows the different varieties of neuroses through picturesque and instructive examples. Its scientific and medical value is poor, but provides us with the various meanings of the word 'neurosis' in the late nineteenth century. Copyright © 2013 S. Karger AG, Basel.

The Slogan Great Wall from the SDSS Data Release 4

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Deng Xin-Fa; He Ji-Zhou; Luo Cheng-Hong; Wu Ping; Tang Xiao-Xun; He Cong-Gen

2007-01-01

Using the MAIN galaxy data from the SDSS Data Release 4 (SDSS4), we further study the Sloan Great Wall by three-dimensional cluster analysis. Because the basic properties of Main galaxies change with redshift, we select 50942 Main galaxies having the same redshift region (0.07 ≤ z ≤ 0.09) as the Sloan Great Wall from the Main galaxy sample, and construct our SubMain sample. From the SubMain sample, 2013 isolated galaxies are identified at dimensionless radius r = 1.4. We perform the comparative studies of galaxy properties among the Sloan Great Wall, isolated galaxies and the SubMain sample in different redshift bins. It turns out that the statistical properties of luminosities and sizes of galaxies for the Sloan Great Wall, isolated galaxies and the SubMain sample are almost the same, the proportion of early-type isolated galaxies is relatively low. We also d that mean color of member galaxies of the Sloan Great Wall is redder than that of isolated galaxies. These results indicate that some properties of galaxies may be closely correlated with the environment or clustering. (author)

Tipping Points, Great and Small

Science.gov (United States)

Morrison, Foster

2010-12-01

The Forum by Jordan et al. [2010] addressed environmental problems of various scales in great detail, but getting the critical message through to the formulators of public policies requires going back to basics, namely, that exponential growth (of a population, an economy, or most anything else) is not sustainable. When have you heard any politician or economist from anywhere across the ideological spectrum say anything other than that more growth is essential? There is no need for computer models to demonstrate “limits to growth,” as was done in the 1960s. Of course, as one seeks more details, the complexity of modeling will rapidly outstrip the capabilities of both observation and computing. This is common with nonlinear systems, even simple ones. Thus, identifying all possible “tipping points,” as suggested by Jordan et al. [2010], and then stopping just short of them, is impractical if not impossible. The main thing needed to avoid environmental disasters is a bit of common sense.

Great Lakes Environmental Database (GLENDA)

Data.gov (United States)

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — The Great Lakes Environmental Database (GLENDA) houses environmental data on a wide variety of constituents in water, biota, sediment, and air in the Great Lakes area.

The role of great auricular-facial nerve neurorrhaphy in facial nerve damage.

Science.gov (United States)

Sun, Yan; Liu, Limei; Han, Yuechen; Xu, Lei; Zhang, Daogong; Wang, Haibo

2015-01-01

Facial nerve is easy to be damaged, and there are many reconstructive methods for facial nerve reconstructive, such as facial nerve end to end anastomosis, the great auricular nerve graft, the sural nerve graft, or hypoglossal-facial nerve anastomosis. However, there is still little study about great auricular-facial nerve neurorrhaphy. The aim of the present study was to identify the role of great auricular-facial nerve neurorrhaphy and the mechanism. Rat models of facial nerve cut (FC), facial nerve end to end anastomosis (FF), facial-great auricular neurorrhaphy (FG), and control (Ctrl) were established. Apex nasi amesiality observation, electrophysiology and immunofluorescence assays were employed to investigate the function and mechanism. In apex nasi amesiality observation, it was found apex nasi amesiality of FG group was partly recovered. Additionally, electrophysiology and immunofluorescence assays revealed that facial-great auricular neurorrhaphy could transfer nerve impulse and express AChR which was better than facial nerve cut and worse than facial nerve end to end anastomosis. The present study indicated that great auricular-facial nerve neurorrhaphy is a substantial solution for facial lesion repair, as it is efficiently preventing facial muscles atrophy by generating neurotransmitter like ACh.

Dreissenid mussels from the Great Lakes contain elevated thiaminase activity

Science.gov (United States)

Tillitt, D.E.; Riley, S.C.; Evans, A.N.; Nichols, S.J.; Zajicek, J.L.; Rinchard, J.; Richter, C.A.; Krueger, C.C.

2009-01-01

We examined thiaminase activity in dreissenid mussels collected at different depths and seasons, and from various locations in Lakes Michigan, Ontario, and Huron. Here we present evidence that two dreissenid mussel species (Dreissena bugensis and D. polymorpha) contain thiaminase activity that is 5-100 fold greater than observed in Great Lakes fishes. Thiaminase activity in zebra mussels ranged from 10,600 to 47,900??pmol g- 1??min- 1 and activities in quagga mussels ranged from 19,500 to 223,800??pmol g- 1??min- 1. Activity in the mussels was greatest in spring, less in summer, and least in fall. Additionally, we observed greater thiaminase activity in dreissenid mussels collected at shallow depths compared to mussels collected at deeper depths. Dreissenids constitute a significant and previously unknown pool of thiaminase in the Great Lakes food web compared to other known sources of this thiamine (vitamin B1)-degrading enzyme. Thiaminase in forage fish of the Great Lakes has been causally linked to thiamine deficiency in salmonines. We currently do not know whether linkages exist between thiaminase activities observed in dreissenids and the thiaminase activities in higher trophic levels of the Great Lakes food web. However, the extreme thiaminase activities observed in dreissenids from the Great Lakes may represent a serious unanticipated negative effect of these exotic species on Great Lakes ecosystems.

The Great Migration and African-American Genomic Diversity.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Soheil Baharian

2016-05-01

Full Text Available We present a comprehensive assessment of genomic diversity in the African-American population by studying three genotyped cohorts comprising 3,726 African-Americans from across the United States that provide a representative description of the population across all US states and socioeconomic status. An estimated 82.1% of ancestors to African-Americans lived in Africa prior to the advent of transatlantic travel, 16.7% in Europe, and 1.2% in the Americas, with increased African ancestry in the southern United States compared to the North and West. Combining demographic models of ancestry and those of relatedness suggests that admixture occurred predominantly in the South prior to the Civil War and that ancestry-biased migration is responsible for regional differences in ancestry. We find that recent migrations also caused a strong increase in genetic relatedness among geographically distant African-Americans. Long-range relatedness among African-Americans and between African-Americans and European-Americans thus track north- and west-bound migration routes followed during the Great Migration of the twentieth century. By contrast, short-range relatedness patterns suggest comparable mobility of ∼15-16km per generation for African-Americans and European-Americans, as estimated using a novel analytical model of isolation-by-distance.

Difference-based Model Synchronization in an Industrial MDD Process

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Könemann, Patrick; Kindler, Ekkart; Unland, Ludger

2009-01-01

Models play a central role in model-driven software engineering. There are different kinds of models during the development process, which are related to each other and change over time. Therefore, it is difficult to keep the different models consistent with each other. Consistency of different m...... model versions, and for synchronizing other types of models. The main concern is to apply our concepts to an industrial process, in particular keeping usability and performance in mind. Keyword: Model Differencing, Model Merging, Model Synchronization...

Accident consequence assessments with different atmospheric dispersion models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Panitz, H.J.

1989-11-01

An essential aim of the improvements of the new program system UFOMOD for Accident Consequence Assessments (ACAs) was to substitute the straight-line Gaussian plume model conventionally used in ACA models by more realistic atmospheric dispersion models. To identify improved models which can be applied in ACA codes and to quantify the implications of different dispersion models on the results of an ACA, probabilistic comparative calculations with different atmospheric dispersion models have been performed. The study showed that there are trajectory models available which can be applied in ACAs and that they provide more realistic results of ACAs than straight-line Gaussian models. This led to a completely novel concept of atmospheric dispersion modelling in which two different distance ranges of validity are distinguished: the near range of some ten kilometres distance and the adjacent far range which are assigned to respective trajectory models. (orig.) [de

The Great Recession and the risk for child maltreatment.

Science.gov (United States)

Brooks-Gunn, Jeanne; Schneider, William; Waldfogel, Jane

2013-10-01

This study draws on the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study (N=2,032), a birth cohort study of families with children from 20 U.S. cities. Interviews occurred between August 2007, and February 2010, when the children were approximately 9 years old. Macro-economic indicators of the Great Recession such as the Consumer Sentiment Index and unemployment and home foreclosure rates were matched to the data to estimate the links between different measures of the Great Recession and high frequency maternal spanking. We find that the large decline in consumer confidence during the Great Recession, as measured by the Consumer Sentiment Index, was associated with worse parenting behavior. In particular, lower levels of consumer confidence were associated with increased levels of high frequency spanking, a parenting behavior that is associated with greater likelihood of being contacted by child protective services. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Optimal velocity difference model for a car-following theory

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Peng, G.H.; Cai, X.H.; Liu, C.Q.; Cao, B.F.; Tuo, M.X.

2011-01-01

In this Letter, we present a new optimal velocity difference model for a car-following theory based on the full velocity difference model. The linear stability condition of the new model is obtained by using the linear stability theory. The unrealistically high deceleration does not appear in OVDM. Numerical simulation of traffic dynamics shows that the new model can avoid the disadvantage of negative velocity occurred at small sensitivity coefficient λ in full velocity difference model by adjusting the coefficient of the optimal velocity difference, which shows that collision can disappear in the improved model. -- Highlights: → A new optimal velocity difference car-following model is proposed. → The effects of the optimal velocity difference on the stability of traffic flow have been explored. → The starting and braking process were carried out through simulation. → The effects of the optimal velocity difference can avoid the disadvantage of negative velocity.

The use of Pb, Sr, and Hg isotopes in Great Lakes precipitation as a tool for pollution source attribution

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sherman, Laura S., E-mail: lsaylors@umich.edu [University of Michigan, Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, 1100 N. University Ave., Ann Arbor, MI 48109 (United States); Blum, Joel D. [University of Michigan, Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, 1100 N. University Ave., Ann Arbor, MI 48109 (United States); Dvonch, J. Timothy [University of Michigan, Air Quality Laboratory, 1415 Washington Heights, Ann Arbor, MI 48109 (United States); Gratz, Lynne E. [University of Washington-Bothell, 18115 Campus Way NE, Bothell, WA 98011 (United States); Landis, Matthew S. [U.S. EPA, Office of Research and Development, Research Triangle Park, NC 27709 (United States)

2015-01-01

The anthropogenic emission and subsequent deposition of heavy metals including mercury (Hg) and lead (Pb) present human health and environmental concerns. Although it is known that local and regional sources of these metals contribute to deposition in the Great Lakes region, it is difficult to trace emissions from point sources to impacted sites. Recent studies suggest that metal isotope ratios may be useful for distinguishing between and tracing source emissions. We measured Pb, strontium (Sr), and Hg isotope ratios in daily precipitation samples that were collected at seven sites across the Great Lakes region between 2003 and 2007. Lead isotope ratios ({sup 207}Pb/{sup 206}Pb = 0.8062 to 0.8554) suggest that Pb deposition was influenced by coal combustion and processing of Mississippi Valley-Type Pb ore deposits. Regional differences in Sr isotope ratios ({sup 87}Sr/{sup 86}Sr = 0.70859 to 0.71155) are likely related to coal fly ash and soil dust. Mercury isotope ratios (δ{sup 202}Hg = − 1.13 to 0.13‰) also varied among the sites, likely due to regional differences in coal isotopic composition, and fractionation occurring within industrial facilities and in the atmosphere. These data represent the first combined characterization of Pb, Sr, and Hg isotope ratios in precipitation collected across the Great Lakes region. We demonstrate the utility of multiple metal isotope ratios in parallel with traditional trace element multivariate statistical modeling to enable more complete pollution source attribution. - Highlights: • We measured Pb, Sr, and Hg isotopes in precipitation from the Great Lakes region. • Pb isotopes suggest that deposition was impacted by coal combustion and metal production. • Sr isotope ratios vary regionally, likely due to soil dust and coal fly ash. • Hg isotopes vary due to fractionation occurring within facilities and the atmosphere. • Isotope results support conclusions of previous trace element receptor modeling.

33 CFR 100.124 - Maggie Fischer Memorial Great South Bay Cross Bay Swim, Great South Bay, New York.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Maggie Fischer Memorial Great South Bay Cross Bay Swim, Great South Bay, New York. 100.124 Section 100.124 Navigation and Navigable... NAVIGABLE WATERS § 100.124 Maggie Fischer Memorial Great South Bay Cross Bay Swim, Great South Bay, New York...

Hand preferences for coordinated bimanual actions in 777 great apes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hopkins, William D; Phillips, Kimberley A; Bania, Amanda

2011-01-01

Whether or not nonhuman primates exhibit population-level handedness remains a topic of considerable scientific debate. Here, we examined handedness for coordinated bimanual actions in a sample of 777 great apes including chimpanzees, bonobos, gorillas, and orangutans. We found population......-level right-handedness in chimpanzees, bonobos and gorillas, but left-handedness in orangutans. Directional biases in handedness were consistent across independent samples of apes within each genus. We suggest that, contrary to previous claims, population-level handedness is evident in great apes but differs...

Different Epidemic Models on Complex Networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang Haifeng; Small, Michael; Fu Xinchu

2009-01-01

Models for diseases spreading are not just limited to SIS or SIR. For instance, for the spreading of AIDS/HIV, the susceptible individuals can be classified into different cases according to their immunity, and similarly, the infected individuals can be sorted into different classes according to their infectivity. Moreover, some diseases may develop through several stages. Many authors have shown that the individuals' relation can be viewed as a complex network. So in this paper, in order to better explain the dynamical behavior of epidemics, we consider different epidemic models on complex networks, and obtain the epidemic threshold for each case. Finally, we present numerical simulations for each case to verify our results.

Air pollution and environmental justice in the Great Lakes region

Science.gov (United States)

Comer, Bryan

While it is true that air quality has steadily improved in the Great Lakes region, air pollution remains at unhealthy concentrations in many areas. Research suggests that vulnerable and susceptible groups in society -- e.g., minorities, the poor, children, and poorly educated -- are often disproportionately impacted by exposure to environmental hazards, including air pollution. This dissertation explores the relationship between exposure to ambient air pollution (interpolated concentrations of fine particulate matter, PM2.5) and sociodemographic factors (race, housing value, housing status, education, age, and population density) at the Census block-group level in the Great Lakes region of the United States. A relatively novel approach to quantitative environmental justice analysis, geographically weighted regression (GWR), is compared with a simplified approach: ordinary least squares (OLS) regression. While OLS creates one global model to describe the relationship between air pollution exposure and sociodemographic factors, GWR creates many local models (one at each Census block group) that account for local variations in this relationship by allowing the value of regression coefficients to vary over space, overcoming OLS's assumption of homogeneity and spatial independence. Results suggest that GWR can elucidate patterns of potential environmental injustices that OLS models may miss. In fact, GWR results show that the relationship between exposure to ambient air pollution and sociodemographic characteristics is non-stationary and can vary geographically and temporally throughout the Great Lakes region. This suggests that regulators may need to address environmental justice issues at the neighborhood level, while understanding that the severity of environmental injustices can change throughout the year.

Network Interactions in the Great Altai Region

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lev Aleksandrovich Korshunov

2017-12-01

Full Text Available To improve the efficiency and competitiveness of the regional economy, an effective interaction between educational institutions in the Great Altai region is needed. The innovation growth can enhancing this interaction. The article explores the state of network structures in the economy and higher education in the border territories of the countries of Great Altai. The authors propose an updated approach to the three-level classification of network interaction. We analyze growing influence of the countries with emerging economies. We define the factors that impede the more stable and multifaceted regional development of these countries. Further, the authors determine indicators of the higher education systems and cooperation systems at the university level between the Shanghai Cooperation Organization countries (SCO and BRICS countries, showing the international rankings of the universities in these countries. The teaching language is important to overcome the obstacles in the interregional cooperation. The authors specify the problems of the development of the universities of the SCO and BRICS countries as global educational networks. The research applies basic scientific logical methods of analysis and synthesis, induction and deduction, as well as the SWOT analysis method. We have indentified and analyzed the existing economic and educational relations. To promote the economic innovation development of the border territories of the Great Altai, we propose a model of regional network university. Modern universities function in a new economic environment. Thus, in a great extent, they form the technological and social aspects of this environment. Innovative network structures contribute to the formation of a new network institutional environment of the regional economy, which impacts the macro- and microeconomic performance of the region as a whole. The results of the research can help to optimize the regional economies of the border

Great Expectations

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Dickens, Charles

2005-01-01

One of Dickens's most renowned and enjoyable novels, Great Expectations tells the story of Pip, an orphan boy who wishes to transcend his humble origins and finds himself unexpectedly given the opportunity to live a life of wealth and respectability. Over the course of the tale, in which Pip

What was the population of Great Zimbabwe (CE1000 – 1800)?

Science.gov (United States)

Moultrie, Thomas; Bandama, Foreman; Dandara, Collett; Manyanga, Munyaradzi

2017-01-01

The World Heritage Site of Great Zimbabwe is one of the most iconic and largest archaeological settlements in Africa. It was the hub of direct and indirect trade which internally connected various areas of southern Africa, and externally linked them with East Africa and the Near and Far East. Archaeologists believe that at its peak, Great Zimbabwe had a fully urban population of 20,000 people concentrated in approximately 2.9 square kilometres (40 percent of 720 ha). This translates to a population density of 6,897, which is comparable with that of some of the most populous regions of the world in the 21st century. Here, we combine archaeological, ethnographic and historical evidence with ecological and statistical modelling to demonstrate that the total population estimate for the site’s nearly 800-year occupational duration (CE1000–1800), after factoring in generational succession, is unlikely to have exceeded 10,000 people. This conclusion is strongly firmed up by the absence of megamiddens at the site, the chronological differences between several key areas of the settlement traditionally assumed to be coeval, and the historically documented low populations recorded for the sub-continent between CE1600 and 1950. PMID:28614397

Model of the PCB and mercury exposure of mink and great blue heron inhabiting the off-site environment downstream from the US Department of Energy Oak Ridge Reservation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

MacIntosh, D.L.

1992-09-01

This report presents a pair of wildlife exposure models developed for use in investigating the risks to wildlife of releases of mercury and PCBS. The species modeled are the great blue heron and mink The models may be used to estimate the exposure experienced by mink and herons, to help establish remedial action goals and to identify research needs. Because mercury and PCBs bioaccumulate through dietary uptake, the models simulate the food webs supporting the two species. Sources of contaminants include surface water, sediment, sediment pore water, and soil. The model are stochastic equilibrium models. Two types of variance in the input parameters are distinguished: stochastic variance among individual mink and herons and ignorance concerning true parameter values. The variance in the output due to stochastic parameters indicates the expected variance among the receptors. The variance due to ignorance indicates the extent to which the model outputs could be unpaved by additional sampling and measurement. The results of the models were compared to concentrations measured in great blue heron eggs and nestlings from colonies on the Clinch and Tennessee Rivers. The predicted concentrations agreed well with the measured concentrations. In addition, the variances in measured values among individuals was approximately equal to the total stochastic variance predicted by the models

Model of the PCB and mercury exposure of mink and great blue heron inhabiting the off-site environment downstream from the US Department of Energy Oak Ridge Reservation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

MacIntosh, D.L. (Indiana Univ., Bloomington, IN (United States). School of Public and Environmental Affairs); Suter, G.W. II; Hoffman, F.O. (Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States))

1992-09-01

This report presents a pair of wildlife exposure models developed for use in investigating the risks to wildlife of releases of mercury and PCBS. The species modeled are the great blue heron and mink The models may be used to estimate the exposure experienced by mink and herons, to help establish remedial action goals and to identify research needs. Because mercury and PCBs bioaccumulate through dietary uptake, the models simulate the food webs supporting the two species. Sources of contaminants include surface water, sediment, sediment pore water, and soil. The model are stochastic equilibrium models. Two types of variance in the input parameters are distinguished: stochastic variance among individual mink and herons and ignorance concerning true parameter values. The variance in the output due to stochastic parameters indicates the expected variance among the receptors. The variance due to ignorance indicates the extent to which the model outputs could be unpaved by additional sampling and measurement. The results of the models were compared to concentrations measured in great blue heron eggs and nestlings from colonies on the Clinch and Tennessee Rivers. The predicted concentrations agreed well with the measured concentrations. In addition, the variances in measured values among individuals was approximately equal to the total stochastic variance predicted by the models.

Using Stellarium to cyber-observe the Great American Eclipse

Science.gov (United States)

Prim, Ellie R.; Sitar, David J.

2017-09-01

The Great American Eclipse is over. Somewhat sad, is it not? Individuals who were unable to experience the event on August 21, 2017, can now cyber-observe the eclipse with Stellarium (http://www.stellarium.org). In the authors' opinion, it is fun and has many great applications in the classroom. In addition it is open source and available for Android, iOS, and Linux users. We here at Appalachian use it in our introductory astronomy labs for specific activities such as investigating coordinate systems, discovering differences between solar and sidereal days, as well as determining why your "astrological sign" is most often not your "astronomical sign."

INFLUENCE OF GREAT HYDRAULIC WORKS UPON NATURE AND MANKIND

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mircea O. POPOVICIU

2011-11-01

Full Text Available The great hydraulic works represent heavy environmental modifications and influence both humans (during the construction and the utilization and nature. The present paper compares these influences for two such works the Suez Canal and the Panama Canal. Both are relatively recent, have the same purpose (the increase of the East-West trade and were initiated by Ferdinand de Lesseps. The possibility of realization was analyzed long time before the beginning of the work. Both works are sources of huge incomes and created endless disputes between the great powers. The forecast level increase of the planetary ocean will affect differently these works.

Ophiolitic basement to the Great Valley forearc basin, California, from seismic and gravity data: Implications for crustal growth at the North American continental margin

Science.gov (United States)

Godfrey, N.J.; Beaudoin, B.C.; Klemperer, S.L.; Levander, A.; Luetgert, J.; Meltzer, A.; Mooney, W.; Tréhu, A.

1997-01-01

The nature of the Great Valley basement, whether oceanic or continental, has long been a source of controversy. A velocity model (derived from a 200-km-long east-west reflection-refraction profile collected south of the Mendocino triple junction, northern California, in 1993), further constrained by density and magnetic models, reveals an ophiolite underlying the Great Valley (Great Valley ophiolite), which in turn is underlain by a westward extension of lower-density continental crust (Sierran affinity material). We used an integrated modeling philosophy, first modeling the seismic-refraction data to obtain a final velocity model, and then modeling the long-wavelength features of the gravity data to obtain a final density model that is constrained in the upper crust by our velocity model. The crustal section of Great Valley ophiolite is 7-8 km thick, and the Great Valley ophiolite relict oceanic Moho is at 11-16 km depth. The Great Valley ophiolite does not extend west beneath the Coast Ranges, but only as far as the western margin of the Great Valley, where the 5-7-km-thick Great Valley ophiolite mantle section dips west into the present-day mantle. There are 16-18 km of lower-density Sierran affinity material beneath the Great Valley ophiolite mantle section, such that a second, deeper, "present-day" continental Moho is at about 34 km depth. At mid-crustal depths, the boundary between the eastern extent of the Great Valley ophiolite and the western extent of Sierran affinity material is a near-vertical velocity and density discontinuity about 80 km east of the western margin of the Great Valley. Our model has important implications for crustal growth at the North American continental margin. We suggest that a thick ophiolite sequence was obducted onto continental material, probably during the Jurassic Nevadan orogeny, so that the Great Valley basement is oceanic crust above oceanic mantle vertically stacked above continental crust and continental mantle.

Predicting climate-induced range shifts: model differences and model reliability.

Science.gov (United States)

Joshua J. Lawler; Denis White; Ronald P. Neilson; Andrew R. Blaustein

2006-01-01

Predicted changes in the global climate are likely to cause large shifts in the geographic ranges of many plant and animal species. To date, predictions of future range shifts have relied on a variety of modeling approaches with different levels of model accuracy. Using a common data set, we investigated the potential implications of alternative modeling approaches for...

The Rule of Saint Basil the Great

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Piotr Pietrow

2014-11-01

Full Text Available The rules of monasticism were collected and published in a single work entitled Asketikon by Saint Basil the Great. It is arranged in the form of questions and answers to create one coherent work. It has two different publications.The first publication named The Small Asketikon dates to 370-370. It is the fruit of the Saint’s work among Pontic communities and consists of 203 questions and answers. The orignial Greek manuscript has not survived and it is available only in two translations: the Latin Rufin and fragments in Syrian language. The second publication named The Great Asketikon appeard in about 377 and presents the most mature step of cenobitic monasticismin Basil’s elaboration. The Great Asketikon was created by adding new questions to The Small Asketikon and consists of two parts called the The Longer Rules and The Shorter Rules. The Longer Rules are primarily a set of questions and answers. It includes a wide range of rules and norms of the overall life in community. It refers to the fundamental rules of spirituality, such as love, sacrifice, obedience and rudimental problems connected withcommunity organization, cenobitic monasticism and the role of the superior, work and prayer. The second part of The Great Asketikon consists of shorter rules. Two publications are known: the first one originated in Pont andincludes 286 questions and answers and second arose in Cezarei and includes 318 questions and answers. In this work, the Hierarch explains in detail issues regarding community life and solves difficult problems connected with conscience. He writes about behavior towards brothers and explains the significance of weaknesses and virtues.

The global financial crisis and the Great Recession of 2007-2009.

Science.gov (United States)

Dore, Mohammed H I; Singh, Rajiv G

2010-07-01

This paper is a re-examination of the global financial crisis that began in and was accompanied by the most severe recession since the Great Depression. It builds on our earlier paper (Dore and Singh, 2009) and expands its scope. It is divided into parts. The first part deals with the ideological backdrop in which this crisis occurred, namely the belief in the rationality and stability of all markets including the capital markets, called the 'efficient market hypothesis.' The second part is a survey of the role of income distribution and its relations to aggregate spending and the growing role played by credit in the circular flow of income. The third part examines some features of the business cycle expansion phase of to . The fourth part is a brief report on a nonlinear Vector Error Correction model spanning the period to and how this expansion came to an end. The fifth part is a brief comparison of the Great Recession with the Great Depression. Finally in the sixth part, the international impact of the Great Recession is considered briefly, followed by some conclusions.

Limit on mass differences in the Weinberg model

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Veltman, M.J.G.

1977-01-01

Within the Weinberg model mass differences between members of a multiplet generate further mass differences between the neutral and charged vector bosons. The experimental situation on the Weinberg model leads to an upper limit of about 800 GeV on mass differences within a multiplet. No limit on the

What great managers do.

Science.gov (United States)

Buckingham, Marcus

2005-03-01

Much has been written about the qualities that make a great manager, but most of the literature overlooks a fundamental question: What does a great manager actually do? While there are countless management styles, one thing underpins the behavior of all great managers. Above all, an exceptional manager comes to know and value the particular quirks and abilities of her employees. She figures out how to capitalize on her staffers' strengths and tweaks her environment to meet her larger goals. Such a specialized approach may seem like a lot of work. But in fact, capitalizing on each person's uniqueness can save time. Rather than encourage employees to conform to strict job descriptions that may include tasks they don't enjoy and aren't good at, a manager who develops positions for his staff members based on their unique abilities will be rewarded with behaviors that are far more efficient and effective than they would be otherwise. This focus on individuals also makes employees more accountable. Because staffers are evaluated on their particular strengths and weaknesses, they are challenged to take responsibility for their abilities and to hone them. Capitalizing on a person's uniqueness also builds a stronger sense of team. By taking the time to understand what makes each employee tick, a great manager shows that he sees his people for who they are. This personal investment not only motivates individuals but also galvanizes the entire team. Finally, this approach shakes up existing hierarchies, which leads to more creative thinking. To take great managing from theory to practice, the author says, you must know three things about a person: her strengths, the triggers that activate those strengths, and how she learns. By asking the right questions, squeezing the right triggers, and becoming aware of your employees' learning styles, you will discover what motivates each person to excel.

The 2009 Samoa-Tonga great earthquake triggered doublet

Science.gov (United States)

Lay, T.; Ammon, C.J.; Kanamori, H.; Rivera, L.; Koper, K.D.; Hutko, Alexander R.

2010-01-01

Great earthquakes (having seismic magnitudes of at least 8) usually involve abrupt sliding of rock masses at a boundary between tectonic plates. Such interplate ruptures produce dynamic and static stress changes that can activate nearby intraplate aftershocks, as is commonly observed in the trench-slope region seaward of a great subduction zone thrust event1-4. The earthquake sequence addressed here involves a rare instance in which a great trench-slope intraplate earthquake triggered extensive interplate faulting, reversing the typical pattern and broadly expanding the seismic and tsunami hazard. On 29 September 2009, within two minutes of the initiation of a normal faulting event with moment magnitude 8.1 in the outer trench-slope at the northern end of the Tonga subduction zone, two major interplate underthrusting subevents (both with moment magnitude 7.8), with total moment equal to a second great earthquake of moment magnitude 8.0, ruptured the nearby subduction zone megathrust. The collective faulting produced tsunami waves with localized regions of about 12metres run-up that claimed 192 lives in Samoa, American Samoa and Tonga. Overlap of the seismic signals obscured the fact that distinct faults separated by more than 50km had ruptured with different geometries, with the triggered thrust faulting only being revealed by detailed seismic wave analyses. Extensive interplate and intraplate aftershock activity was activated over a large region of the northern Tonga subduction zone. ?? 2010 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved.

Regional CO2 and latent heat surface fluxes in the Southern Great Plains: Measurements, modeling, and scaling

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Riley, W. J.; Biraud, S.C.; Torn, M.S.; Fischer, M.L.; Billesbach, D.P.; Berry, J.A.

2009-08-15

Characterizing net ecosystem exchanges (NEE) of CO{sub 2} and sensible and latent heat fluxes in heterogeneous landscapes is difficult, yet critical given expected changes in climate and land use. We report here a measurement and modeling study designed to improve our understanding of surface to atmosphere gas exchanges under very heterogeneous land cover in the mostly agricultural U.S. Southern Great Plains (SGP). We combined three years of site-level, eddy covariance measurements in several of the dominant land cover types with regional-scale climate data from the distributed Mesonet stations and Next Generation Weather Radar precipitation measurements to calibrate a land surface model of trace gas and energy exchanges (isotope-enabled land surface model (ISOLSM)). Yearly variations in vegetation cover distributions were estimated from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer normalized difference vegetation index and compared to regional and subregional vegetation cover type estimates from the U.S. Department of Agriculture census. We first applied ISOLSM at a 250 m spatial scale to account for vegetation cover type and leaf area variations that occur on hundred meter scales. Because of computational constraints, we developed a subsampling scheme within 10 km 'macrocells' to perform these high-resolution simulations. We estimate that the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Climate Research Facility SGP region net CO{sub 2} exchange with the local atmosphere was -240, -340, and -270 gC m{sup -2} yr{sup -1} (positive toward the atmosphere) in 2003, 2004, and 2005, respectively, with large seasonal variations. We also performed simulations using two scaling approaches at resolutions of 10, 30, 60, and 90 km. The scaling approach applied in current land surface models led to regional NEE biases of up to 50 and 20% in weekly and annual estimates, respectively. An important factor in causing these biases was the complex leaf area index (LAI) distribution

CAUSES: Attribution of Surface Radiation Biases in NWP and Climate Models near the U.S. Southern Great Plains

Science.gov (United States)

Van Weverberg, K.; Morcrette, C. J.; Petch, J.; Klein, S. A.; Ma, H.-Y.; Zhang, C.; Xie, S.; Tang, Q.; Gustafson, W. I.; Qian, Y.; Berg, L. K.; Liu, Y.; Huang, M.; Ahlgrimm, M.; Forbes, R.; Bazile, E.; Roehrig, R.; Cole, J.; Merryfield, W.; Lee, W.-S.; Cheruy, F.; Mellul, L.; Wang, Y.-C.; Johnson, K.; Thieman, M. M.

2018-04-01

Many Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) and climate models exhibit too warm lower tropospheres near the midlatitude continents. The warm bias has been shown to coincide with important surface radiation biases that likely play a critical role in the inception or the growth of the warm bias. This paper presents an attribution study on the net radiation biases in nine model simulations, performed in the framework of the CAUSES project (Clouds Above the United States and Errors at the Surface). Contributions from deficiencies in the surface properties, clouds, water vapor, and aerosols are quantified, using an array of radiation measurement stations near the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Southern Great Plains site. Furthermore, an in-depth analysis is shown to attribute the radiation errors to specific cloud regimes. The net surface shortwave radiation is overestimated in all models throughout most of the simulation period. Cloud errors are shown to contribute most to this overestimation, although nonnegligible contributions from the surface albedo exist in most models. Missing deep cloud events and/or simulating deep clouds with too weak cloud radiative effects dominate in the cloud-related radiation errors. Some models have compensating errors between excessive occurrence of deep cloud but largely underestimating their radiative effect, while other models miss deep cloud events altogether. Surprisingly, even the latter models tend to produce too much and too frequent afternoon surface precipitation. This suggests that rather than issues with the triggering of deep convection, cloud radiative deficiencies are related to too weak convective cloud detrainment and too large precipitation efficiencies.

Post-glacial recolonization of the Great Lakes region by the common gartersnake (Thamnophis sirtalis) inferred from mtDNA sequences.

Science.gov (United States)

Placyk, John S; Burghardt, Gordon M; Small, Randall L; King, Richard B; Casper, Gary S; Robinson, Jace W

2007-05-01

Pleistocene events played an important role in the differentiation of North American vertebrate populations. Michigan, in particular, and the Great Lakes region, in general, were greatly influenced by the last glaciation. While several hypotheses regarding the recolonization of this region have been advanced, none have been strongly supported. We generated 148 complete ND2 mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) sequences from common gartersnake (Thamnophis sirtalis) populations throughout the Great Lakes region to evaluate phylogeographic patterns and population structure and to determine whether the distribution of haplotypic variants is related to the post-Pleistocene retreat of the Wisconsinan glacier. The common gartersnake was utilized, as it is believed to have been one of the primary vertebrate invaders of the Great Lakes region following the most recent period of glacial retreat and because it has been a model species for a variety of evolutionary, ecological, behavioral, and physiological studies. Several genetically distinct evolutionary lineages were supported by both genealogical and molecular population genetic analyses, although to different degrees. The geographic distribution of the majority of these lineages is interpreted as reflecting post-glacial recolonization dynamics during the late Pleistocene. These findings generally support previous hypotheses of range expansion in this region.

Comparison of different statistical modelling approaches for deriving spatial air temperature patterns in an urban environment

Science.gov (United States)

Straub, Annette; Beck, Christoph; Breitner, Susanne; Cyrys, Josef; Geruschkat, Uta; Jacobeit, Jucundus; Kühlbach, Benjamin; Kusch, Thomas; Richter, Katja; Schneider, Alexandra; Umminger, Robin; Wolf, Kathrin

2017-04-01

Frequently spatial variations of air temperature of considerable magnitude occur within urban areas. They correspond to varying land use/land cover characteristics and vary with season, time of day and synoptic conditions. These temperature differences have an impact on human health and comfort directly by inducing thermal stress as well as indirectly by means of affecting air quality. Therefore, knowledge of the spatial patterns of air temperature in cities and the factors causing them is of great importance, e.g. for urban planners. A multitude of studies have shown statistical modelling to be a suitable tool for generating spatial air temperature patterns. This contribution presents a comparison of different statistical modelling approaches for deriving spatial air temperature patterns in the urban environment of Augsburg, Southern Germany. In Augsburg there exists a measurement network for air temperature and humidity currently comprising 48 stations in the city and its rural surroundings (corporately operated by the Institute of Epidemiology II, Helmholtz Zentrum München, German Research Center for Environmental Health and the Institute of Geography, University of Augsburg). Using different datasets for land surface characteristics (Open Street Map, Urban Atlas) area percentages of different types of land cover were calculated for quadratic buffer zones of different size (25, 50, 100, 250, 500 m) around the stations as well for source regions of advective air flow and used as predictors together with additional variables such as sky view factor, ground level and distance from the city centre. Multiple Linear Regression and Random Forest models for different situations taking into account season, time of day and weather condition were applied utilizing selected subsets of these predictors in order to model spatial distributions of mean hourly and daily air temperature deviations from a rural reference station. Furthermore, the different model setups were

Employment services in Great Britain and Turkey

OpenAIRE

ÖZKANLI, Özlem

2001-01-01

This artiele criticaUy compares the institutions and procedures for the employment services of Great Britain (GB) and Turkey. The similarities and differences of two employment organisations, the Department for Education and Employment in GB and the Turkish Employment Organisation, are examined. Data is collected in field study from these organisations, based in London and Ankara, through interviews and observation techniques. Field study in London is financed by the World Bank. After briefly...

Observing Semi-Arid Ecoclimates across Mountain Gradients in the Great Basin, USA

Science.gov (United States)

Strachan, Scotty

Observation of climate and ecohydrological variables in mountain systems is a necessary (if challenging) endeavor for modern society. Water resources are often intimately tied to mountains, and high elevation environments are frequently home to unique landscapes and biota with limited geographical distributions. This is especially true in the temperate and semi-arid mountains of the western United States, and specifically the Great Basin. Stark contrasts in annual water balance and ecological populations are visible across steep elevational gradients in the region; and yet the bulk of our historical knowledge of climate and related processes comes from lowland observations. Interpolative models that strive to estimate conditions in mountains using existing datasets are often found to be inaccurate, making future projections of mountain climate and ecosystem response suspect. This study details the results of high-resolution topographically-diverse ecohydrological monitoring, and describes the character and seasonality of basic climatic variables such as temperature and precipitation as well as their impact on soil moisture and vegetation during the 2012-2015 drought sequence. Relationships of topography (elevation/aspect) to daily and seasonal temperatures are shown. Tests of the PRISM temperature model are performed at the large watershed scale, revealing magnitudes, modes, and potential sources of bias that could dramatically affect derivative scientific conclusions. A new method of precipitation phase partitioning to detect and quantify frozen precipitation on a sub-daily basis is described. Character of precipitation from sub-daily to annual scales is quantified across all major Great Basin vegetation/elevation zones, and the relationship of elevation to precipitation phase, intensity, and amount is explored. Water-stress responses of Great Basin conifers including Pinus flexilis, Pinus longaeva, and Pinus ponderosa are directly observed, showing potential

Empirical study of peak-load pricing and investment policies for the domestic market of gas in Great Britain

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tzoannos, J

1977-06-01

This paper reports the main results of a study aimed at determining empirically an optimal structure of seasonal tariffs for the domestic sector of gas in Great Britain. The study first involves the development of a peak-load pricing model which maximizes social welfare. The model is then quantified with cost and demand functions which have been statistically estimated for Great Britian using data for town gas. The procedure of estimating these functions is based on an error components model. The seasonal pricing and investment policy resulting from the solution to the above model is then compared with the existing policy for the domestic sector of gas in Great Britain. It is shown that the former is superior to the latter in terms of improvements in social welfare and capacity utilization. 22 references.

Why are there no great women chefs?

Science.gov (United States)

Druckman, Charlotte

2010-01-01

This article applies the rhetorical and deliberately provocative approach of the watershed essay art historian Linda Nochlin wrote in 1971—“Why Have there Been No Great Women Artists?”—to today's culinary industry. Nochlin used the question her title posed as a theoretical trap that would draw attention not only to the inherent sexism or prejudice that pervades the way the public perceives art, but also to those same issues' existence within and impact on academia and the other cultural institutions responsible for posing these sorts of questions. Nochlin bypassed the obvious and irrelevant debate over women's being less or differently talented and, in so doing, exposed that debate for being a distraction from the heart of the matter: how, sociologically (media) or institutionally (museums, foundations, etc.), people define a “great artist.” Although it's 40 years later, the polemic is as effective when used to understand the gender divide in the food world.

Determinants of residential space heating expenditures in Great Britain

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Meier, Helena [Department of Economics, University of Hamburg, Von Melle Park 5, 20146 Hamburg (Germany); Rehdanz, Katrin [Department of Economics, University of Kiel, Olshausenstrasse 40, 24118 Kiel (Germany)

2010-09-15

In Great Britain, several policy measures have been implemented in order to increase energy efficiency and reduce carbon emissions. In the domestic sector, this could, for example, be achieved by improving space heating efficiency and thus decreasing heating expenditure. However, in order to efficiently design and implement such policy measures, a better understanding of the determinants affecting heating expenditure is needed. In this paper we examine the following determinants: socio-economic factors, building characteristics, heating technologies and weather conditions. In contrast to most other studies we use panel data to investigate household demand for heating in Great Britain. Our data sample is the result of an annual set of interviews with more than 5000 households, starting in 1991 and ending in 2005. The sample represents a total of 64,000 observations over the fifteen-year period. Our aim is to derive price and income elasticities both for Britain as a whole and for different types of household. Our results suggest that differences exist between owner-occupied and renter households. These households react differently to changes in income and prices. Our results also imply that a number of socio-economic criteria have a significant influence on heating expenditure, independently of the fuel used for heating. Understanding the impacts of different factors on heating expenditure and impact differences between types of household is helpful in designing target-oriented policy measures. (author)

Selection based on the size of the black tie of the great tit may be reversed in urban habitats.

Science.gov (United States)

Senar, Juan Carlos; Conroy, Michael J; Quesada, Javier; Mateos-Gonzalez, Fernando

2014-07-01

A standard approach to model how selection shapes phenotypic traits is the analysis of capture-recapture data relating trait variation to survival. Divergent selection, however, has never been analyzed by the capture-recapture approach. Most reported examples of differences between urban and nonurban animals reflect behavioral plasticity rather than divergent selection. The aim of this paper was to use a capture-recapture approach to test the hypothesis that divergent selection can also drive local adaptation in urban habitats. We focused on the size of the black breast stripe (i.e., tie width) of the great tit (Parus major), a sexual ornament used in mate choice. Urban great tits display smaller tie sizes than forest birds. Because tie size is mostly genetically determined, it could potentially respond to selection. We analyzed capture/recapture data of male great tits in Barcelona city (N = 171) and in a nearby (7 km) forest (N = 324) from 1992 to 2008 using MARK. When modelling recapture rate, we found it to be strongly influenced by tie width, so that both for urban and forest habitats, birds with smaller ties were more trap-shy and more cautious than their larger tied counterparts. When modelling survival, we found that survival prospects in forest great tits increased the larger their tie width (i.e., directional positive selection), but the reverse was found for urban birds, with individuals displaying smaller ties showing higher survival (i.e., directional negative selection). As melanin-based tie size seems to be related to personality, and both are heritable, results may be explained by cautious personalities being favored in urban environments. More importantly, our results show that divergent selection can be an important mechanism in local adaptation to urban habitats and that capture-recapture is a powerful tool to test it.

Is it Worth Comparing Different Bankruptcy Models?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Miroslava Dolejšová

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to compare the performance of small enterprises in the Zlín and Olomouc Regions. These enterprises were assessed using the Altman Z-Score model, the IN05 model, the Zmijewski model and the Springate model. The batch selected for this analysis included 16 enterprises from the Zlín Region and 16 enterprises from the Olomouc Region. Financial statements subjected to the analysis are from 2006 and 2010. The statistical data analysis was performed using the one-sample z-test for proportions and the paired t-test. The outcomes of the evaluation run using the Altman Z-Score model, the IN05 model and the Springate model revealed the enterprises to be financially sound, but the Zmijewski model identified them as being insolvent. The one-sample z-test for proportions confirmed that at least 80% of these enterprises show a sound financial condition. A comparison of all models has emphasized the substantial difference produced by the Zmijewski model. The paired t-test showed that the financial performance of small enterprises had remained the same during the years involved. It is recommended that small enterprises assess their financial performance using two different bankruptcy models. They may wish to combine the Zmijewski model with any bankruptcy model (the Altman Z-Score model, the IN05 model or the Springate model to ensure a proper method of analysis.

Nothing Great Is Easy

OpenAIRE

Stansbie, Lisa

2014-01-01

A solo exhibition of 13 pieces of art work.\\ud \\ud Nothing Great is Easy is an exhibition of sculpture, film, drawing and photography that proposes reconstructed narratives using the sport of swimming and in particular the collective interaction and identity of the channel swimmer. The work utilises the processes, rituals/rules, language and the apparatus of sport.\\ud \\ud “Nothing great is easy” are the words on the memorial to Captain Matthew Webb who was the first man to swim the English ch...

Differential-difference model for textile engineering

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wu Guocheng; Zhao Ling; He Jihuan

2009-01-01

Woven fabric is manifestly not a continuum and therefore Darcy's law or its modifications, or any other differential models are invalid theoretically. A differential-difference model for air transport in discontinuous media is introduced using conservation of mass, conservation of energy, and the equation of state in discrete space and continuous time, capillary pressure is obtained by dimensional analysis.

Climate variability and Great Plains agriculture

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rosenberg, N.J.; Katz, L.A.

1991-01-01

The ways in which inhabitants of the Great Plains, including Indians, early settlers, and 20th century farmers, have adapted to climate changes on the Great Plains are explored. The climate of the Great Plains, because of its variability and extremes, can be very stressful to plants, animals and people. It is suggested that agriculture and society on the Great Plains have, during the last century, become less vulnerable to the stresses imposed by climate. Opinions as to the sustainability of agriculture on the Great Plains vary substantially. Lockeretz (1981) suggests that large scale, high cost technologies have stressed farmers by creating surpluses and by requiring large investments. Opie (1989) sees irrigation as a climate substitute, however he stresses that the Ogallala aquifer must inevitably become depleted. Deborah and Frank Popper (1987) believe that farming on the Plains is unsustainable, and destruction of shelterbelts, out-migration of the rural population and environmental problems will lead to total collapse. With global warming, water in the Great Plains is expected to become scarcer, and although improvements in irrigation efficiency may slow depletion of the Ogallala aquifer, ultimately the acreage under irrigation must decrease to levels that can be sustained by natural recharge and reliable surface flows. 23 refs., 2 figs

Climate change effects on wildland fire risk in the Northeastern and Great Lakes states predicted by a downscaled multi-model ensemble

Science.gov (United States)

Kerr, Gaige Hunter; DeGaetano, Arthur T.; Stoof, Cathelijne R.; Ward, Daniel

2018-01-01

This study is among the first to investigate wildland fire risk in the Northeastern and the Great Lakes states under a changing climate. We use a multi-model ensemble (MME) of regional climate models from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) together with the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System (CFFWIS) to understand changes in wildland fire risk through differences between historical simulations and future projections. Our results are relatively homogeneous across the focus region and indicate modest increases in the magnitude of fire weather indices (FWIs) during northern hemisphere summer. The most pronounced changes occur in the date of the initialization of CFFWIS and peak of the wildland fire season, which in the future are trending earlier in the year, and in the significant increases in the length of high-risk episodes, defined by the number of consecutive days with FWIs above the current 95th percentile. Further analyses show that these changes are most closely linked to expected changes in the focus region's temperature and precipitation. These findings relate to the current understanding of particulate matter vis-à-vis wildfires and have implications for human health and local and regional changes in radiative forcings. When considering current fire management strategies which could be challenged by increasing wildland fire risk, fire management agencies could adapt new strategies to improve awareness, prevention, and resilience to mitigate potential impacts to critical infrastructure and population.

Staple Food Self-Sufficiency of Farmers Household Level in The Great Solo

Science.gov (United States)

Darsono

2017-04-01

Analysis of food security level of household is a novelty of measurement standards which usually includes regional and national levels. With household approach is expected to provide the basis of sharp food policy formulation. The purpose of this study are to identify the condition of self-sufficiency in staple foods, and to find the main factors affecting the dynamics of self-sufficiency in staple foods on farm household level in Great Solo. Using primary data from 50 farmers in the sample and secondary data in Great Solo (Surakarta city, Boyolali, Sukoharjo, Karanganyar, Wonogiri, Sragen and Klaten). Compiled panel data were analyzed with linear probability regression models to produce a good model. The results showed that farm households in Great Solo has a surplus of staple food (rice) with an average consumption rate of 96.8 kg/capita/year. This number is lower than the national rate of 136.7 kg/capita/year. The main factors affecting the level of food self-sufficiency in the farmer household level are: rice production, rice consumption, land tenure, and number of family members. Key recommendations from this study are; improvement scale of the land cultivation for rice farming and non-rice diversification consumption.

A Dynamical Downscaling study over the Great Lakes Region Using WRF-Lake: Historical Simulation

Science.gov (United States)

Xiao, C.; Lofgren, B. M.

2014-12-01

As the largest group of fresh water bodies on Earth, the Laurentian Great Lakes have significant influence on local and regional weather and climate through their unique physical features compared with the surrounding land. Due to the limited spatial resolution and computational efficiency of general circulation models (GCMs), the Great Lakes are geometrically ignored or idealized into several grid cells in GCMs. Thus, the nested regional climate modeling (RCM) technique, known as dynamical downscaling, serves as a feasible solution to fill the gap. The latest Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) is employed to dynamically downscale the historical simulation produced by the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory-Coupled Model (GFDL-CM3) from 1970-2005. An updated lake scheme originated from the Community Land Model is implemented in the latest WRF version 3.6. It is a one-dimensional mass and energy balance scheme with 20-25 model layers, including up to 5 snow layers on the lake ice, 10 water layers, and 10 soil layers on the lake bottom. The lake scheme is used with actual lake points and lake depth. The preliminary results show that WRF-Lake model, with a fine horizontal resolution and realistic lake representation, provides significantly improved hydroclimates, in terms of lake surface temperature, annual cycle of precipitation, ice content, and lake-effect snowfall. Those improvements suggest that better resolution of the lakes and the mesoscale process of lake-atmosphere interaction are crucial to understanding the climate and climate change in the Great Lakes region.

The use of karst geomorphology for planning, hazard avoidance and development in Great Britain

Science.gov (United States)

Cooper, Anthony H.; Farrant, Andrew R.; Price, Simon J.

2011-11-01

Within Great Britain five main types of karstic rocks - dolomite, limestone, chalk, gypsum and salt - are present. Each presents a different type and severity of karstic geohazard which are related to the rock solubility and geological setting. Typical karstic features associated with these rocks have been databased by the British Geological Survey (BGS) with records of sinkholes, cave entrances, stream sinks, resurgences and building damage; data for more than half of the country has been gathered. BGS has manipulated digital map data, for bedrock and superficial deposits, with digital elevation slope models, superficial deposit thickness models, the karst data and expertly interpreted areas, to generate a derived dataset assessing the likelihood of subsidence due to karst collapse. This dataset is informed and verified by the karst database and marketed as part of the BGS GeoSure suite. It is currently used by environmental regulators, the insurance and construction industries, and the BGS semi-automated enquiry system. The database and derived datasets can be further combined and manipulated using GIS to provide other datasets that deal with specific problems. Sustainable drainage systems, some of which use soak-aways into the ground, are being encouraged in Great Britain, but in karst areas they can cause ground stability problems. Similarly, open loop ground source heat or cooling pump systems may induce subsidence if installed in certain types of karstic environments such as in chalk with overlying sand deposits. Groundwater abstraction also has the potential to trigger subsidence in karst areas. GIS manipulation of the karst information is allowing Great Britain to be zoned into areas suitable, or unsuitable, for such uses; it has the potential to become part of a suite of planning management tools for local and National Government to assess the long term sustainable use of the ground.

Reproductive behavior of the great hornbill (Buceros bicornis).

Science.gov (United States)

Kozlowski, Corinne P; Bauman, Karen L; Asa, Cheryl S

2015-01-01

Great hornbills (Buceros bicornis) are a long-lived, monogamous species that forms strong pair-bonds, and mate compatibility is thought to be important for successful reproduction. Within AZA, great hornbills are listed as a red SSP. The population consists of a limited number of individuals that do not breed reliably, and improving reproduction is a top priority for the Coraciiformes TAG. To better understand mating behavior and evaluate mate compatibility, this study documented the behavior of pairs of great hornbills during and immediately after courtship. Using live observations, the study followed one female, an experienced and successful breeder, as she was paired with four successive males over 11 breeding seasons. Initially, males frequently vocalized, investigated the nest, and approached the female. As the female spent more time in the nest, these behaviors were replaced by regurgitation and food offering. The female was most often observed plastering and vocalizing. Behavioral differences between successful and unsuccessful pairs, possibly indicative of pair compatibility, included rates of approaching, billing, and biting. Numerous behaviors occurred more frequently during years that a chick hatched, including pseudoregurgitation, regurgitation, offering food items, and nest investigation. Males also spent more time in proximity to both the female and the nest during years that a chick hatched. Together, these results suggest that the amount of time pairs spend in proximity, the amount of time a male spends near the nest, and the frequency of certain behaviors may help evaluate compatibility and the likelihood of successful reproduction for pairs of great hornbills. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Comparing estimates of genetic variance across different relationship models.

Science.gov (United States)

Legarra, Andres

2016-02-01

Use of relationships between individuals to estimate genetic variances and heritabilities via mixed models is standard practice in human, plant and livestock genetics. Different models or information for relationships may give different estimates of genetic variances. However, comparing these estimates across different relationship models is not straightforward as the implied base populations differ between relationship models. In this work, I present a method to compare estimates of variance components across different relationship models. I suggest referring genetic variances obtained using different relationship models to the same reference population, usually a set of individuals in the population. Expected genetic variance of this population is the estimated variance component from the mixed model times a statistic, Dk, which is the average self-relationship minus the average (self- and across-) relationship. For most typical models of relationships, Dk is close to 1. However, this is not true for very deep pedigrees, for identity-by-state relationships, or for non-parametric kernels, which tend to overestimate the genetic variance and the heritability. Using mice data, I show that heritabilities from identity-by-state and kernel-based relationships are overestimated. Weighting these estimates by Dk scales them to a base comparable to genomic or pedigree relationships, avoiding wrong comparisons, for instance, "missing heritabilities". Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Der Einfluss von personeller Einkommensverteilung auf die „Great Depression“ und die „Great Recession“

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Stefan Trappl

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Der Einfluss gestiegener Einkommensungleichheit auf die „Great Depression“ und die „Great Recession“ wurde mehrfach postuliert (Galbraith 1954/2009; Eccles 1951; Rajan 2010; Stiglitz 2012; Piketty 2014. Konkrete empirische Arbeiten zum Zusammenhang zwischen Einkommensverteilung und dem Entstehen von Wirtschaftskrisen gibt es aber bislang wenige. Kumhof/Ranciere (2010 überprüften die von Rajan (2010 aufgestellte Hypothese, die einen entsprechenden Zusammenhang postuliert, mittels Modellrechnung. Bordo/Meissner (2012 und darauf aufbauend Gu/Huang (2014 verwendeten unterschiedliche Regressionsmodelle in Bezug auf einen entsprechenden Zusammenhang, ohne jedoch eindeutige Ergebnisse zu liefern. Die vorliegende Arbeit schließt an diese Arbeiten an, beschränkt die Untersuchung allerdings auf Staaten, für die Daten für die letzten hundert Jahre verfügbar sind, und untersucht zudem explizit die Zeiträume um die beiden größten Krisen der letzten hundert Jahre, die „Great Depression“ und die „Great Recession“. Die Auswertungen zeigen, dass die personelle Einkommensverteilung ein guter Prädiktor für die Kriseneintrittswahrscheinlichkeit ist.

A note on technology shocks and the Great Depression

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Inklaar, Robert; de Jong, Harmen; Gouma, Fokke Reitze

2016-01-01

The role of technology shocks as a driver of the Great Depression is the topic of our own earlier work and the paper by Watanabe in this issue. While the two studies differ in their data and assumptions, they complement each other and strengthen the conclusion of both papers: technology shocks were

Great Lakes Bathymetry

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Bathymetry of Lakes Michigan, Erie, Saint Clair, Ontario and Huron has been compiled as a component of a NOAA project to rescue Great Lakes lake floor geological and...

Tissue differences in fragile X mosaics: Mosaicism in blood cells may differ greatly from skin

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dobkin, C.S.; Nolin, S.L.; Cohen, I. [NYS Institute for Basic Research in Developmental Disabilities, Staten Island, NY (United States)] [and others

1996-08-09

The fragile X mutation is diagnosed from the structure of the FMR1 gene in blood cell DNA. An estimated 12 to 41% of affected males are mosaics who carry both a {open_quotes}full mutation{close_quotes} allele from which there is no gene expression and a {open_quotes}premutation{close_quotes} allele which has normal gene expression. We compared the DNA in blood cells and skin fibroblasts from four mosaic fragile X males to see if there was a difference in the relative amounts of premutation and full mutation alleles within the tissues of these individuals. Two of these males showed striking differences in the ratio of premutation to full mutation in different tissues while the other two showed only slight differences. These observations conform with the widely accepted hypothesis that the fragile X CGG repeat is unstable in somatic tissue during early embryogenesis. Accordingly, the mosaicism in brain and skin, which are both ectodermal in origin, may be similar to each other but different from blood which is not ectodermal in origin. Thus, the ratio of full mutation to premutation allele in skin fibroblasts might be a better indicator of psychological impairment than the ratio in blood cells. 24 refs., 4 figs., 1 tab.

What Caused the Great Depression?

Science.gov (United States)

Caldwell, Jean; O'Driscoll, Timothy G.

2007-01-01

Economists and historians have struggled for almost 80 years to account for the American Great Depression, which began in 1929 and lasted until the early years of World War II. In this article, the authors discuss three major schools of thought on the causes of the Great Depression and the long failure of the American economy to return to full…

The Sixth Great Mass Extinction

Science.gov (United States)

Wagler, Ron

2012-01-01

Five past great mass extinctions have occurred during Earth's history. Humanity is currently in the midst of a sixth, human-induced great mass extinction of plant and animal life (e.g., Alroy 2008; Jackson 2008; Lewis 2006; McDaniel and Borton 2002; Rockstrom et al. 2009; Rohr et al. 2008; Steffen, Crutzen, and McNeill 2007; Thomas et al. 2004;…

The Time Scale of Recombination Rate Evolution in Great Apes

Science.gov (United States)

Stevison, Laurie S.; Woerner, August E.; Kidd, Jeffrey M.; Kelley, Joanna L.; Veeramah, Krishna R.; McManus, Kimberly F.; Bustamante, Carlos D.; Hammer, Michael F.; Wall, Jeffrey D.

2016-01-01

Abstract We present three linkage-disequilibrium (LD)-based recombination maps generated using whole-genome sequence data from 10 Nigerian chimpanzees, 13 bonobos, and 15 western gorillas, collected as part of the Great Ape Genome Project (Prado-Martinez J, et al. 2013. Great ape genetic diversity and population history. Nature 499:471–475). We also identified species-specific recombination hotspots in each group using a modified LDhot framework, which greatly improves statistical power to detect hotspots at varying strengths. We show that fewer hotspots are shared among chimpanzee subspecies than within human populations, further narrowing the time scale of complete hotspot turnover. Further, using species-specific PRDM9 sequences to predict potential binding sites (PBS), we show higher predicted PRDM9 binding in recombination hotspots as compared to matched cold spot regions in multiple great ape species, including at least one chimpanzee subspecies. We found that correlations between broad-scale recombination rates decline more rapidly than nucleotide divergence between species. We also compared the skew of recombination rates at centromeres and telomeres between species and show a skew from chromosome means extending as far as 10–15 Mb from chromosome ends. Further, we examined broad-scale recombination rate changes near a translocation in gorillas and found minimal differences as compared to other great ape species perhaps because the coordinates relative to the chromosome ends were unaffected. Finally, on the basis of multiple linear regression analysis, we found that various correlates of recombination rate persist throughout the African great apes including repeats, diversity, and divergence. Our study is the first to analyze within- and between-species genome-wide recombination rate variation in several close relatives. PMID:26671457

The effect of different weather data sets and their resolution on climate-based daylight modelling

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Iversen, A; Svendsen, Svend; Nielsen, Toke Rammer

2013-01-01

Climate-based daylight modelling is based on the available weather data, which means that the weather data used as input to the daylight simulations are of great importance. In this paper, the effect on the outcome of the daylight simulations of using one weather data file rather than another...

Re‐estimated effects of deep episodic slip on the occurrence and probability of great earthquakes in Cascadia

Science.gov (United States)

Beeler, Nicholas M.; Roeloffs, Evelyn A.; McCausland, Wendy

2013-01-01

Mazzotti and Adams (2004) estimated that rapid deep slip during typically two week long episodes beneath northern Washington and southern British Columbia increases the probability of a great Cascadia earthquake by 30–100 times relative to the probability during the ∼58 weeks between slip events. Because the corresponding absolute probability remains very low at ∼0.03% per week, their conclusion is that though it is more likely that a great earthquake will occur during a rapid slip event than during other times, a great earthquake is unlikely to occur during any particular rapid slip event. This previous estimate used a failure model in which great earthquakes initiate instantaneously at a stress threshold. We refine the estimate, assuming a delayed failure model that is based on laboratory‐observed earthquake initiation. Laboratory tests show that failure of intact rock in shear and the onset of rapid slip on pre‐existing faults do not occur at a threshold stress. Instead, slip onset is gradual and shows a damped response to stress and loading rate changes. The characteristic time of failure depends on loading rate and effective normal stress. Using this model, the probability enhancement during the period of rapid slip in Cascadia is negligible (stresses of 10 MPa or more and only increases by 1.5 times for an effective normal stress of 1 MPa. We present arguments that the hypocentral effective normal stress exceeds 1 MPa. In addition, the probability enhancement due to rapid slip extends into the interevent period. With this delayed failure model for effective normal stresses greater than or equal to 50 kPa, it is more likely that a great earthquake will occur between the periods of rapid deep slip than during them. Our conclusion is that great earthquake occurrence is not significantly enhanced by episodic deep slip events.

Great magnetic storms

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tsurutani, B.T.; Yen Te Lee; Tang, F.; Gonzalez, W.D.

1992-01-01

The five largest magnetic storms that occurred between 1971 and 1986 are studied to determine their solar and interplanetary causes. All of the events are found to be associated with high speed solar wind streams led by collisionless shocks. The high speed streams are clearly related to identifiable solar flares. It is found that (1) it is the extreme values of the southward interplanetary magnetic fields rather than solar wind speeds that are the primary causes of great magnetic storms, (2) shocked and draped sheath fields preceding the driver gas (magnetic cloud) are at least as effective in causing the onset of great magnetic storms (3 of 5 events ) as the strong fields within the driver gas itself, and (3) precursor southward fields ahead of the high speed streams allow the shock compression mechanism (item 2) to be particularly geoeffective

Reaching Regional and Local Learners via a Great Lakes MOOC

Science.gov (United States)

Mooney, M. E.; Ackerman, S. A.

2015-12-01

The Cooperative Institute of Meteorological Satellite Studies (CIMSS) took a regional approach to climate change education in a 4-week MOOC (Massive Open On-line Course) on the Changing Weather and Climate in the Great Lakes Region launched in February 2015. Featuring a different season each week, this Great Lakes MOOC includes lectures about seasonal weather conditions, observed changes, and societal impacts of regional climate change, as well as actions with co-benefits to slow future climate change. To better connect with learners, CIMSS facilitated 21 discussion groups at public libraries around Wisconsin each week. Participants discussed climate change impacts in their communities as well as strategies to mitigate climate change. Not surprisingly, initial survey results show library participants were more committed, engaged, climate literate, and community minded. This session will share lessons learned and survey results from the Great Lakes MOOC which remains open and accessible on Coursera through February 2016 at https://www.coursera.org/course/greatlakesclimate.

Elucidating causes of Diporeia decline in the Great Lakes via metabolomics: physiological responses after exposure to different stressors.

Science.gov (United States)

Maity, Suman; Jannasch, Amber; Adamec, Jiri; Watkins, James M; Nalepa, Thomas; Höök, Tomas O; Sepúlveda, Maria S

2013-01-01

The benthic macroinvertebrate Diporeia spp. have been extirpated from many areas of the Laurentian Great Lakes, but the mechanisms underlying such declines are not fully understood. Diporeia declines coinciding with the invasion of exotic dreissenid mussels (zebra and quagga) have led to the hypothesis that Diporeia declines are a result of decreased food availability from increasing competition with dreissenids for diatoms. There is additional evidence that Diporeia are negatively affected when in close proximity to dreissenids, probably because of exposure to toxins present in the mussels' pseudofeces. Diporeia are also known to be sensitive to anthropogenic contaminants (such as polychlorinated biphenyls [PCBs]) present in Great Lakes sediments. To better understand the physiological responses of Diporeia to diverse stressors, we conducted three 28-d experiments evaluating changes in the metabolomes of Diporeia (1) fed diatoms (Cyclotella meneghiniana) versus starved, (2) exposed (from Lake Michigan and Cayuga Lake) to quagga mussels (Dreissena bugensis), and (3) exposed to sediments contaminated with PCBs. The metabolomes of samples were examined using both two-dimensional gas and liquid chromatography coupled with mass spectrometry. Each stressor elicited a unique metabolome response characterized by enhanced citric acid cycle, fatty acid biosynthesis, and protein metabolism in diatom-fed Diporeia; impaired glycolysis, protein catabolism, and folate metabolism in Diporeia from Lake Michigan irrespective of quagga mussel exposure, suggesting lake-specific adaptation mechanisms; and altered cysteine and phospholipid metabolism during PCB exposure. Subsequent comparisons of these stressor-specific metabolic responses with metabolomes of a feral Diporeia population would help identify stressors affecting Diporeia populations throughout the Great Lakes.

Pitfalls in urinary stone identification using CT attenuation values: Are we getting the same information on different scanner models?

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Grosjean, Romain, E-mail: r.grosjean@chu-nancy.fr [IADI Laboratory, INSERM-U947, Nancy-University, Allée du Morvan, 54500 Vandoeuvre-les-Nancy (France); Daudon, Michel, E-mail: michel.daudon@tnn.aphp.fr [IADI Laboratory, INSERM-U947, Nancy-University, Allée du Morvan, 54500 Vandoeuvre-les-Nancy (France); Chammas, Mario F., E-mail: mariochammas@usp.br [University of Sao Paulo – Division of Urology, Av. Dr. Enéas de Carvalho Aguiar, 255, 7" o Andar – s. 7123, São Paulo (Brazil); Claudon, Michel, E-mail: m.claudon@chu-nancy.fr [IADI Laboratory, INSERM-U947, Nancy-University, Allée du Morvan, 54500 Vandoeuvre-les-Nancy (France); Eschwege, Pascal, E-mail: peschwege@yahoo.com [Department of Urology, Brabois Hospital, University Hospital of Nancy, Allée du Morvan, 54511 Vandoeuvre-les-Nancy (France); Felblinger, Jacques, E-mail: j.felblinger@chu-nancy.fr [IADI Laboratory, INSERM-U947, Nancy-University, Allée du Morvan, 54500 Vandoeuvre-les-Nancy (France); Hubert, Jacques, E-mail: j.hubert@chu-nancy.fr [Department of Urology, Brabois Hospital, University Hospital of Nancy, Allée du Morvan, 54511 Vandoeuvre-les-Nancy (France)

2013-08-15

Introduction: Evaluate the capability of different Computed Tomography scanners to determine urinary stone compositions based on CT attenuation values and to evaluate potential differences between each model. Methods: 241 human urinary stones were obtained and their biochemical composition determined. Four different CT scanners (Siemens, Philips, GEMS and Toshiba) were evaluated. Mean CT-attenuation values and the standard deviation were recorded separately and compared with a t-paired test. Results: For all tested CT scanners, when the classification of the various types of stones was arranged according to the mean CT-attenuation values and to the confidence interval, large overlappings between stone types were highlighted. The t-paired test showed that most stone types could not be identified. Some types of stones presented mean CT attenuation values significantly different from one CT scanner to another. At 80 kV, the mean CT attenuation values obtained with the Toshiba Aquilion were significantly different from those obtained with the Siemens Sensation. On the other hand, mean values obtained with the Philips Brilliance were all significantly equal to those obtained with the Siemens Sensation and with the Toshiba Aquilion. At 120 kV mean CT attenuation values of uric acid, cystine and struvite stones obtained with the Philips model are significantly different from those obtained with the Siemens and the Toshiba but equal to those obtained with the GE 64. Conclusions: According to our study, there is a great variability when different brands and models of scanners are compared directly. Furthermore, the CT scan analysis and HU evaluation appears to gather insufficient information in order to characterize and identify the composition of renal stones.

Pitfalls in urinary stone identification using CT attenuation values: Are we getting the same information on different scanner models?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Grosjean, Romain; Daudon, Michel; o Andar – s. 7123, São Paulo (Brazil))" data-affiliation=" (University of Sao Paulo – Division of Urology, Av. Dr. Enéas de Carvalho Aguiar, 255, 7o Andar – s. 7123, São Paulo (Brazil))" >Chammas, Mario F.; Claudon, Michel; Eschwege, Pascal; Felblinger, Jacques; Hubert, Jacques

2013-01-01

Introduction: Evaluate the capability of different Computed Tomography scanners to determine urinary stone compositions based on CT attenuation values and to evaluate potential differences between each model. Methods: 241 human urinary stones were obtained and their biochemical composition determined. Four different CT scanners (Siemens, Philips, GEMS and Toshiba) were evaluated. Mean CT-attenuation values and the standard deviation were recorded separately and compared with a t-paired test. Results: For all tested CT scanners, when the classification of the various types of stones was arranged according to the mean CT-attenuation values and to the confidence interval, large overlappings between stone types were highlighted. The t-paired test showed that most stone types could not be identified. Some types of stones presented mean CT attenuation values significantly different from one CT scanner to another. At 80 kV, the mean CT attenuation values obtained with the Toshiba Aquilion were significantly different from those obtained with the Siemens Sensation. On the other hand, mean values obtained with the Philips Brilliance were all significantly equal to those obtained with the Siemens Sensation and with the Toshiba Aquilion. At 120 kV mean CT attenuation values of uric acid, cystine and struvite stones obtained with the Philips model are significantly different from those obtained with the Siemens and the Toshiba but equal to those obtained with the GE 64. Conclusions: According to our study, there is a great variability when different brands and models of scanners are compared directly. Furthermore, the CT scan analysis and HU evaluation appears to gather insufficient information in order to characterize and identify the composition of renal stones

Heavy ion fusion reactions: comparison among different models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Canto, L F; Carlson, B V; Hussein, M S

1988-03-01

A comparison among different ion fusion models is presented. In particular, the multistep aspects of the recently proposed Dinucleus Doorway Model are made explicit and the model is confronted with other compound nucleus limitation models. It is suggested that the latter models provide effective one-step descriptions of heavy ion fusion.

Managing authenticity: the paradox of great leadership.

Science.gov (United States)

Goffee, Rob; Jones, Gareth

2005-12-01

Leaders and followers both associate authenticity with sincerity, honesty, and integrity. It's the real thing--the attribute that uniquely defines great managers. But while the expression of a genuine self is necessary for great leadership, the concept of authenticity is often misunderstood, not least by leaders themselves. They often assume that authenticity is an innate quality--that a person is either genuine or not. In fact, the authors say, authenticity is largely defined by what other people see in you and, as such, can to a great extent be controlled by you. In this article, the authors explore the qualities of authentic leadership. To illustrate their points, they recount the experiences of some of the authentic leaders they have known and studied, including the BBC's Greg Dyke, Nestlé's Peter Brabeck-Letmathe, and Marks & Spencer's Jean Tomlin. Establishing your authenticity as a leader is a two-part challenge. You have to consistently match your words and deeds; otherwise, followers will never accept you as authentic. But it is not enough just to practice what you preach. To get people to follow you, you also have to get them to relate to you. This means presenting different faces to different audiences--a requirement that many people find hard to square with authenticity. But authenticity is not the product of manipulation. It accurately reflects aspects of the leader's inner self, so it can't be an act. Authentic leaders seem to know which personality traits they should reveal to whom, and when. Highly attuned to their environments, authentic leaders rely on an intuition born of formative, sometimes harsh experiences to understand the expectations and concerns of the people they seek to influence. They retain their distinctiveness as individuals, yet they know how to win acceptance in strong corporate and social cultures and how to use elements of those cultures as a basis for radical change.

WRF model sensitivity to land surface model and cumulus parameterization under short-term climate extremes over the southern Great Plains of the United States

Science.gov (United States)

Lisi Pei; Nathan Moore; Shiyuan Zhong; Lifeng Luo; David W. Hyndman; Warren E. Heilman; Zhiqiu. Gao

2014-01-01

Extreme weather and climate events, especially short-term excessive drought and wet periods over agricultural areas, have received increased attention. The Southern Great Plains (SGP) is one of the largest agricultural regions in North America and features the underlying Ogallala-High Plains Aquifer system worth great economic value in large part due to production...

Aspect-Oriented Model Development at Different Levels of Abstraction

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Alférez, Mauricio; Amálio, Nuno; Ciraci, S.; Fleurey, Franck; Kienzle, Jörg; Klein, Jacques; Kramer, Max; Mosser, Sebastien; Mussbacher, Gunter; Roubtsova, Ella; Zhang, Gefei; France, Robert B.; Kuester, Jochen M.; Bordbar, Behzad; Paige, Richard F.

2011-01-01

The last decade has seen the development of diverse aspect- oriented modeling (AOM) approaches. This paper presents eight different AOM approaches that produce models at different level of abstraction. The approaches are different with respect to the phases of the development lifecycle they target,

Spatial connections in regional climate model rainfall outputs at different temporal scales: Application of network theory

Science.gov (United States)

Naufan, Ihsan; Sivakumar, Bellie; Woldemeskel, Fitsum M.; Raghavan, Srivatsan V.; Vu, Minh Tue; Liong, Shie-Yui

2018-01-01

Understanding the spatial and temporal variability of rainfall has always been a great challenge, and the impacts of climate change further complicate this issue. The present study employs the concepts of complex networks to study the spatial connections in rainfall, with emphasis on climate change and rainfall scaling. Rainfall outputs (during 1961-1990) from a regional climate model (i.e. Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model that downscaled the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts, ECMWF ERA-40 reanalyses) over Southeast Asia are studied, and data corresponding to eight different temporal scales (6-hr, 12-hr, daily, 2-day, 4-day, weekly, biweekly, and monthly) are analyzed. Two network-based methods are applied to examine the connections in rainfall: clustering coefficient (a measure of the network's local density) and degree distribution (a measure of the network's spread). The influence of rainfall correlation threshold (T) on spatial connections is also investigated by considering seven different threshold levels (ranging from 0.5 to 0.8). The results indicate that: (1) rainfall networks corresponding to much coarser temporal scales exhibit properties similar to that of small-world networks, regardless of the threshold; (2) rainfall networks corresponding to much finer temporal scales may be classified as either small-world networks or scale-free networks, depending upon the threshold; and (3) rainfall spatial connections exhibit a transition phase at intermediate temporal scales, especially at high thresholds. These results suggest that the most appropriate model for studying spatial connections may often be different at different temporal scales, and that a combination of small-world and scale-free network models might be more appropriate for rainfall upscaling/downscaling across all scales, in the strict sense of scale-invariance. The results also suggest that spatial connections in the studied rainfall networks in Southeast Asia are

In vitro evaluation of physiological spiral anastomoses for the arterial switch operation in simple transposition of the great arteries: a first step towards a surgical alternative?

Science.gov (United States)

Sievers, Hans-Hinrich; Scharfschwerdt, Michael; Putman, Léon M

2015-08-01

The currently most frequently used technique for the arterial switch operation (ASO) in simple transposition of the great arteries (TGA) includes the transposition of the pulmonary artery anterior to the ascending aorta. This arterial arrangement is less anatomical, and although the initial results are excellent, some long-term data are indicating a certain risk of morbidity, encouraging the search for more physiological techniques. As a first step, we studied the feasibility of anatomical spiral anastomoses of the great vessels in vitro. A TGA model was constructed to simulate the different spatial positions of the great arteries followed by ASO with physiological spiral connections of the great arteries. It was possible to perform a physiological spiral connection of the great arteries without tension or torsion when the roots of the great vessels were arranged anterior-posterior and with up to 35° rotation of the aortic root to the right around the pulmonary root. With further rotation of the aorta, patch plasties were required for pulmonary artery elongation. The maximal width of the patch was 5 mm. In this TGA model, it was possible to perform tension- and torsion-free arterial anastomoses for ASO without artificial material, when the aortic root was positioned from 0° up to 35° to the right of the pulmonary root. Evaluation of coronary transfer is the next step. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Association for Cardio-Thoracic Surgery. All rights reserved.

Potential for production of ‘mini-mussels’ in Great Belt (Denmark) evaluated on basis of actual and modeled growth of young mussels Mytilus edulis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Riisgård, Hans Ulrik; Lundgreen, Kim; Larsen, Poul Scheel

2014-01-01

The present study is a first step towards evaluation of the potential for line-mussel production in the Great Belt region between the Kattegat and Baltic Sea, Denmark. We present experimental results for actual growth rates of juvenile/adult mussels Mytilus edulis in suspended net bags in terms......) as a function of dry weight of soft parts (W, g) by a previously developed simple bioenergetic growth model μ = aW −0.34. Results were generally in good agreement with the model which assumes the prevailing average chlorophyll a concentration at field sites to essentially account for the nutrition. Our studies...

Climatic change in the Great Plains region of Canada

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rizzo, B.

1991-01-01

Implications of global warming to Canada's Great Plains region are discussed, with reference to the climate predictions of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) general circulation model under a two times atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration scenario. Two sets of climate variables for a geographic area located in the Great Plains are tabulated, for the current (1951-1980) climate normals and under the doubled carbon dioxide scenario. Simple univariate statistics were calculated for the two areas, for the variables of mean annual temperature, mean summer temperature, mean winter temperature, mean July temperature, mean growing season temperature, total annual precipitation, total summer precipitation, total winter precipitation, and total growing season precipitation. Under the GISS scenario, temperature values are on average 4 degree C higher than 1951-1980 normals, while precipitation remains about the same. Locations of ecoclimatic regions are graphed for the whole of Canada. 1 fig., 1 tab

Fatty acid profiles of great tit ( Parus major) eggs differ between urban and rural habitats, but not between coniferous and deciduous forests

Science.gov (United States)

Toledo, Alejandra; Andersson, Martin N.; Wang, Hong-Lei; Salmón, Pablo; Watson, Hannah; Burdge, Graham C.; Isaksson, Caroline

2016-08-01

Early-life nutrition is an important determinant of both short- and long-term performance and fitness. The avian embryo develops within an enclosed package of nutrients, of which fatty acids (FA) are essential for many aspects of development. The FA composition of yolk depends on maternal nutrition and condition prior to egg formation, which may be affected by the external environment. To test if maternal environment affects yolk FA composition, we investigated whether the FA composition of great tit ( Parus major) egg yolks differed between urban and rural habitats, and between deciduous and coniferous habitats. The results reveal differences in FA composition between eggs laid in urban and rural habitats, but not between eggs from the coniferous and deciduous habitats. To a large extent, this difference likely reflects dietary differences associated with urban habitats rather than dominating vegetation type. Specifically, urban yolks contained lower proportions of both ω-3 and ω-6 polyunsaturated FAs (PUFA), which are important for chick development. We also found a positive association between the proportion of saturated fatty acids and laying date, and a negative association between the proportion of ω-6 PUFA and clutch size. Given that urbanization is expanding rapidly, future studies should investigate whether factors such as anthropogenic food in the urban environment underlie these differences and whether they impair chick development.

Modeled aerosol nitrate formation pathways during wintertime in the Great Lakes region of North America

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Yoo Jung; Spak, Scott N.; Carmichael, Gregory R.; Riemer, Nicole; Stanier, Charles O.

2014-11-01

Episodic wintertime particle pollution by ammonium nitrate is an important air quality concern across the Midwest U.S. Understanding and accurately forecasting PM2.5 episodes are complicated by multiple pathways for aerosol nitrate formation, each with uncertain rate parameters. Here, the Community Multiscale Air Quality model (CMAQ) simulated regional atmospheric nitrate budgets during the 2009 LADCO Winter Nitrate Study, using integrated process rate (IPR) and integrated reaction rate (IRR) tools to quantify relevant processes. Total nitrate production contributing to PM2.5 episodes is a regional phenomenon, with peak production over the Ohio River Valley and southern Great Lakes. Total nitrate production in the lower troposphere is attributed to three pathways, with 57% from heterogeneous conversion of N2O5, 28% from the reaction of OH and NO2, and 15% from homogeneous conversion of N2O5. TNO3 formation rates varied day-to-day and on synoptic timescales. Rate-limited production does not follow urban-rural gradients and NOx emissions due, to counterbalancing of urban enhancement in daytime HNO3 production with nocturnal reductions. Concentrations of HNO3 and N2O5 and nighttime TNO3 formation rates have maxima aloft (100-500 m), leading to net total nitrate vertical flux during episodes, with substantial vertical gradients in nitrate partitioning. Uncertainties in all three pathways are relevant to wintertime aerosol modeling and highlight the importance of interacting transport and chemistry processes during ammonium nitrate episodes, as well as the need for additional constraint on the system through field and laboratory experiments.

Stem cell therapy: the great promise in lung disease.

Science.gov (United States)

Siniscalco, Dario; Sullo, Nikol; Maione, Sabatino; Rossi, Francesco; D'Agostino, Bruno

2008-06-01

Lung injuries are leading causes of morbidity and mortality worldwide. Pulmonary diseases such as asthma or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease characterized by loss of lung elasticity, small airway tethers, and luminal obstruction with inflammatory mucoid secretions, or idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis characterized by excessive matrix deposition and destruction of the normal lung architecture, have essentially symptomatic treatments and their management is costly to the health care system.Regeneration of tissue by stem cells from endogenous, exogenous, and even genetically modified cells is a promising novel therapy. The use of adult stem cells to help with lung regeneration and repair could be a newer technology in clinical and regenerative medicine. In fact, different studies have shown that bone marrow progenitor cells contribute to repair and remodeling of lung in animal models of progressive pulmonary hypertension.Therefore, lung stem cell biology may provide novel approaches to therapy and could represent a great promise for the future of molecular medicine. In fact, several diseases can be slowed or even blocked by stem cell transplantation.

Different atmospheric parameters influence on spectral UV radiation (measurements and modelling)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chubarova, N Y [Moscow State Univ. (Russian Federation). Meteorological Observatory; Krotkov, N A [Maryland Univ., MD (United States). JCESS/Meteorology Dept.; Geogdzhaev, I V; Bushnev, S V; Kondranin, T V [SUMGF/MIPT, Dolgoprudny (Russian Federation); Khattatov, V U [Central Aerological Observatory, Dolgoprudny (Russian Federation)

1996-12-31

The ultraviolet (UV) radiation plays a vital role in the biophysical processes despite its small portion in the total solar flux. UV radiation is subject to large variations at the Earth surface depending greatly on solar elevation, ozone and cloud amount, aerosols and surface albedo. The analysis of atmospheric parameters influence is based on the spectral archive data of three spectral instruments: NSF spectroradiometer (Barrow network) (NSF Polar Programs UV Spectroradiometer Network 1991-1992,1992), spectrophotometer (SUVS-M) of Central Aerological Observatory CAO, spectroradiometer of Meteorological Observatory of the Moscow State University (MO MSU) and model simulations based on delta-Eddington approximation

Different atmospheric parameters influence on spectral UV radiation (measurements and modelling)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chubarova, N.Y. [Moscow State Univ. (Russian Federation). Meteorological Observatory; Krotkov, N.A. [Maryland Univ., MD (United States). JCESS/Meteorology Dept.; Geogdzhaev, I.V.; Bushnev, S.V.; Kondranin, T.V. [SUMGF/MIPT, Dolgoprudny (Russian Federation); Khattatov, V.U. [Central Aerological Observatory, Dolgoprudny (Russian Federation)

1995-12-31

The ultraviolet (UV) radiation plays a vital role in the biophysical processes despite its small portion in the total solar flux. UV radiation is subject to large variations at the Earth surface depending greatly on solar elevation, ozone and cloud amount, aerosols and surface albedo. The analysis of atmospheric parameters influence is based on the spectral archive data of three spectral instruments: NSF spectroradiometer (Barrow network) (NSF Polar Programs UV Spectroradiometer Network 1991-1992,1992), spectrophotometer (SUVS-M) of Central Aerological Observatory CAO, spectroradiometer of Meteorological Observatory of the Moscow State University (MO MSU) and model simulations based on delta-Eddington approximation

Incorporating biodiversity into rangeland health: Plant species richness and diversity in great plains grasslands

Science.gov (United States)

Symstad, Amy J.; Jonas, Jayne L.

2011-01-01

Indicators of rangeland health generally do not include a measure of biodiversity. Increasing attention to maintaining biodiversity in rangelands suggests that this omission should be reconsidered, and plant species richness and diversity are two metrics that may be useful and appropriate. Ideally, their response to a variety of anthropogenic and natural drivers in the ecosystem of interest would be clearly understood, thereby providing a means to diagnose the cause of decline in an ecosystem. Conceptual ecological models based on ecological principles and hypotheses provide a framework for this understanding, but these models must be supported by empirical evidence if they are to be used for decision making. To that end, we synthesize results from published studies regarding the responses of plant species richness and diversity to drivers that are of management concern in Great Plains grasslands, one of North America's most imperiled ecosystems. In the published literature, moderate grazing generally has a positive effect on these metrics in tallgrass prairie and a neutral to negative effect in shortgrass prairie. The largest published effects on richness and diversity were caused by moderate grazing in tallgrass prairies and nitrogen fertilization in shortgrass prairies. Although weather is often cited as the reason for considerable annual fluctuations in richness and diversity, little information about the responses of these metrics to weather is available. Responses of the two metrics often diverged, reflecting differences in their sensitivity to different types of changes in the plant community. Although sufficient information has not yet been published for these metrics to meet all the criteria of a good indicator in Great Plains Grasslands, augmenting current methods of evaluating rangeland health with a measure of plant species richness would reduce these shortcomings and provide information critical to managing for biodiversity.

Dynamics of DNA methylation in recent human and great ape evolution.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Irene Hernando-Herraez

Full Text Available DNA methylation is an epigenetic modification involved in regulatory processes such as cell differentiation during development, X-chromosome inactivation, genomic imprinting and susceptibility to complex disease. However, the dynamics of DNA methylation changes between humans and their closest relatives are still poorly understood. We performed a comparative analysis of CpG methylation patterns between 9 humans and 23 primate samples including all species of great apes (chimpanzee, bonobo, gorilla and orangutan using Illumina Methylation450 bead arrays. Our analysis identified ∼800 genes with significantly altered methylation patterns among the great apes, including ∼170 genes with a methylation pattern unique to human. Some of these are known to be involved in developmental and neurological features, suggesting that epigenetic changes have been frequent during recent human and primate evolution. We identified a significant positive relationship between the rate of coding variation and alterations of methylation at the promoter level, indicative of co-occurrence between evolution of protein sequence and gene regulation. In contrast, and supporting the idea that many phenotypic differences between humans and great apes are not due to amino acid differences, our analysis also identified 184 genes that are perfectly conserved at protein level between human and chimpanzee, yet show significant epigenetic differences between these two species. We conclude that epigenetic alterations are an important force during primate evolution and have been under-explored in evolutionary comparative genomics.

The 1985 central chile earthquake: a repeat of previous great earthquakes in the region?

Science.gov (United States)

Comte, D; Eisenberg, A; Lorca, E; Pardo, M; Ponce, L; Saragoni, R; Singh, S K; Suárez, G

1986-07-25

A great earthquake (surface-wave magnitude, 7.8) occurred along the coast of central Chile on 3 March 1985, causing heavy damage to coastal towns. Intense foreshock activity near the epicenter of the main shock occurred for 11 days before the earthquake. The aftershocks of the 1985 earthquake define a rupture area of 170 by 110 square kilometers. The earthquake was forecast on the basis of the nearly constant repeat time (83 +/- 9 years) of great earthquakes in this region. An analysis of previous earthquakes suggests that the rupture lengths of great shocks in the region vary by a factor of about 3. The nearly constant repeat time and variable rupture lengths cannot be reconciled with time- or slip-predictable models of earthquake recurrence. The great earthquakes in the region seem to involve a variable rupture mode and yet, for unknown reasons, remain periodic. Historical data suggest that the region south of the 1985 rupture zone should now be considered a gap of high seismic potential that may rupture in a great earthquake in the next few tens of years.

Wages, Productivity and Work Intensity in the Great Depression

OpenAIRE

Julia Darby; Robert A Hart

2002-01-01

We show that U.S. manufacturing wages during the Great Depression were importantly determined by forces on firms' intensive margins. Short-run changes in work intensity and the longer-term goal of restoring full potential productivity combined to influence real wage growth. By contrast, the external effects of unemployment and replacement rates had much less impact. Empirical work is undertaken against the background of an efficient bargaining model that embraces employment, hours of work and...

Reliability of multi-model and structurally different single-model ensembles

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yokohata, Tokuta [National Institute for Environmental Studies, Center for Global Environmental Research, Tsukuba, Ibaraki (Japan); Annan, James D.; Hargreaves, Julia C. [Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Research Institute for Global Change, Yokohama, Kanagawa (Japan); Collins, Matthew [University of Exeter, College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, Exeter (United Kingdom); Jackson, Charles S.; Tobis, Michael [The University of Texas at Austin, Institute of Geophysics, 10100 Burnet Rd., ROC-196, Mail Code R2200, Austin, TX (United States); Webb, Mark J. [Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter (United Kingdom)

2012-08-15

The performance of several state-of-the-art climate model ensembles, including two multi-model ensembles (MMEs) and four structurally different (perturbed parameter) single model ensembles (SMEs), are investigated for the first time using the rank histogram approach. In this method, the reliability of a model ensemble is evaluated from the point of view of whether the observations can be regarded as being sampled from the ensemble. Our analysis reveals that, in the MMEs, the climate variables we investigated are broadly reliable on the global scale, with a tendency towards overdispersion. On the other hand, in the SMEs, the reliability differs depending on the ensemble and variable field considered. In general, the mean state and historical trend of surface air temperature, and mean state of precipitation are reliable in the SMEs. However, variables such as sea level pressure or top-of-atmosphere clear-sky shortwave radiation do not cover a sufficiently wide range in some. It is not possible to assess whether this is a fundamental feature of SMEs generated with particular model, or a consequence of the algorithm used to select and perturb the values of the parameters. As under-dispersion is a potentially more serious issue when using ensembles to make projections, we recommend the application of rank histograms to assess reliability when designing and running perturbed physics SMEs. (orig.)

Different radiation impedance models for finite porous materials

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nolan, Melanie; Jeong, Cheol-Ho; Brunskog, Jonas

2015-01-01

The Sabine absorption coefficients of finite absorbers are measured in a reverberation chamber according to the international standard ISO 354. They vary with the specimen size essentially due to diffraction at the specimen edges, which can be seen as the radiation impedance differing from...... the infinite case. Thus, in order to predict the Sabine absorption coefficients of finite porous samples, one can incorporate models of the radiation impedance. In this study, different radiation impedance models are compared with two experimental examples. Thomasson’s model is compared to Rhazi’s method when...

MODELING AND SIMULATION OF TRAFFIC FLOWS ON INCLINED ROAD DURING EVACUATION PROCESS OF THE VOLCANO DISASTER WITH FINITE DIFFERENCE METHOD

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Richasanty Septima S

2017-03-01

Full Text Available The research in this thesis was done to examine the model of traffic flow of volcanic disaster evacuation path for uphill and downhill roads. The assessment was focused on the area of disaster evacuation path from the Pante Raya Bener Meriah intersection to Takengon. This model is assessed for two different types of time when which a disaster occurs; the disaster occurred at night and the disaster occurred during the day, especially during peak hours (working hours. The model was developed with attention to the exixtence of inflow and outflow along the evacuation route. Furthermore, the model obtained is solved numerically by using finite difference method. The chosen approach of this method is upwind scheme with time and space steps using forward difference and backward difference. The solution of this model in the form of simulated vehicle density along evacuation pathways. The research conducted is in the form of a model of traffic flow on evacuation paths and restricted to the inflow and outflow without alternative path as well as the conditions of the road which are uphill and downhill, showed a high density of vehicles either at night or during the day. Uphill road conditions resulted in decreased vehicle speed and vehicle density will increase, while downhill road conditions resulted in increased vehicle speed and vehicle density will decrease, meaning that the road conditions which are uphill and downhill will greatly affect the process of evacuation. Degree vehicles of evacuation efficiency occuring at night without an alternative pathway produces a high efficiency so that it can be interpreted that the evacuation process in the evening was successful and runs better than the evacuation process during the day, and this is caused by the existence of vehicles on the road evacuation process started thus affecting the efficiency levels.

The Lancet Countdown on health benefits from the UK Climate Change Act: a modelling study for Great Britain.

Science.gov (United States)

Williams, Martin L; Lott, Melissa C; Kitwiroon, Nutthida; Dajnak, David; Walton, Heather; Holland, Mike; Pye, Steve; Fecht, Daniela; Toledano, Mireille B; Beevers, Sean D

2018-05-01

Climate change poses a dangerous and immediate threat to the health of populations in the UK and worldwide. We aimed to model different scenarios to assess the health co-benefits that result from mitigation actions. In this modelling study, we combined a detailed techno-economic energy systems model (UK TIMES), air pollutant emission inventories, a sophisticated air pollution model (Community Multi-scale Air Quality), and previously published associations between concentrations and health outcomes. We used four scenarios and focused on the air pollution implications from fine particulate matter (PM 2·5 ), nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) and ozone. The four scenarios were baseline, which assumed no further climate actions beyond those already achieved and did not meet the UK's Climate Change Act (at least an 80% reduction in carbon dioxide equivalent emissions by 2050 compared with 1990) target; nuclear power, which met the Climate Change Act target with a limited increase in nuclear power; low-greenhouse gas, which met the Climate Change Act target without any policy constraint on nuclear build; and a constant scenario that held 2011 air pollutant concentrations constant until 2050. We predicted the health and economic impacts from air pollution for the scenarios until 2050, and the inequalities in exposure across different socioeconomic groups. NO 2 concentrations declined leading to 4 892 000 life-years saved for the nuclear power scenario and 7 178 000 life-years saved for the low-greenhouse gas scenario from 2011 to 2154. However, the associations that we used might overestimate the effects of NO 2 itself. PM 2·5 concentrations in Great Britain are predicted to decrease between 42% and 44% by 2050 compared with 2011 in the scenarios that met the Climate Change Act targets, especially those from road traffic and off-road machinery. These reductions in PM 2·5 are tempered by a 2035 peak (and subsequent decline) in biomass (wood burning), and by a large

Towards methodical modelling: Differences between the structure and output dynamics of multiple conceptual models

Science.gov (United States)

Knoben, Wouter; Woods, Ross; Freer, Jim

2016-04-01

Conceptual hydrologic models consist of a certain arrangement of spatial and temporal dynamics consisting of stores, fluxes and transformation functions, depending on the modeller's choices and intended use. They have the advantages of being computationally efficient, being relatively easy model structures to reconfigure and having relatively low input data demands. This makes them well-suited for large-scale and large-sample hydrology, where appropriately representing the dominant hydrologic functions of a catchment is a main concern. Given these requirements, the number of parameters in the model cannot be too high, to avoid equifinality and identifiability issues. This limits the number and level of complexity of dominant hydrologic processes the model can represent. Specific purposes and places thus require a specific model and this has led to an abundance of conceptual hydrologic models. No structured overview of these models exists and there is no clear method to select appropriate model structures for different catchments. This study is a first step towards creating an overview of the elements that make up conceptual models, which may later assist a modeller in finding an appropriate model structure for a given catchment. To this end, this study brings together over 30 past and present conceptual models. The reviewed model structures are simply different configurations of three basic model elements (stores, fluxes and transformation functions), depending on the hydrologic processes the models are intended to represent. Differences also exist in the inner workings of the stores, fluxes and transformations, i.e. the mathematical formulations that describe each model element's intended behaviour. We investigate the hypothesis that different model structures can produce similar behavioural simulations. This can clarify the overview of model elements by grouping elements which are similar, which can improve model structure selection.

ECONOMETRIC APPROACH TO DIFFERENCE EQUATIONS MODELING OF EXCHANGE RATES CHANGES

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Josip Arnerić

2010-12-01

Full Text Available Time series models that are commonly used in econometric modeling are autoregressive stochastic linear models (AR and models of moving averages (MA. Mentioned models by their structure are actually stochastic difference equations. Therefore, the objective of this paper is to estimate difference equations containing stochastic (random component. Estimated models of time series will be used to forecast observed data in the future. Namely, solutions of difference equations are closely related to conditions of stationary time series models. Based on the fact that volatility is time varying in high frequency data and that periods of high volatility tend to cluster, the most successful and popular models in modeling time varying volatility are GARCH type models and their variants. However, GARCH models will not be analyzed because the purpose of this research is to predict the value of the exchange rate in the levels within conditional mean equation and to determine whether the observed variable has a stable or explosive time path. Based on the estimated difference equation it will be examined whether Croatia is implementing a stable policy of exchange rates.

Heterogeneous rupture in the great Cascadia earthquake of 1700 inferred from coastal subsidence estimates

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Pei-Ling; Engelhart, Simon E.; Wang, Kelin; Hawkes, Andrea D.; Horton, Benjamin P.; Nelson, Alan R.; Witter, Robert C.

2013-01-01

Past earthquake rupture models used to explain paleoseismic estimates of coastal subsidence during the great A.D. 1700 Cascadia earthquake have assumed a uniform slip distribution along the megathrust. Here we infer heterogeneous slip for the Cascadia margin in A.D. 1700 that is analogous to slip distributions during instrumentally recorded great subduction earthquakes worldwide. The assumption of uniform distribution in previous rupture models was due partly to the large uncertainties of then available paleoseismic data used to constrain the models. In this work, we use more precise estimates of subsidence in 1700 from detailed tidal microfossil studies. We develop a 3-D elastic dislocation model that allows the slip to vary both along strike and in the dip direction. Despite uncertainties in the updip and downdip slip extensions, the more precise subsidence estimates are best explained by a model with along-strike slip heterogeneity, with multiple patches of high-moment release separated by areas of low-moment release. For example, in A.D. 1700, there was very little slip near Alsea Bay, Oregon (~44.4°N), an area that coincides with a segment boundary previously suggested on the basis of gravity anomalies. A probable subducting seamount in this area may be responsible for impeding rupture during great earthquakes. Our results highlight the need for more precise, high-quality estimates of subsidence or uplift during prehistoric earthquakes from the coasts of southern British Columbia, northern Washington (north of 47°N), southernmost Oregon, and northern California (south of 43°N), where slip distributions of prehistoric earthquakes are poorly constrained.

Recensie "The Great Reset" : Richard Florida

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Roy van Dalm

2010-01-01

Like the Great Depression and the Long Depression before it, experts have viewed prolonged economic downturns as crises. In The Great Reset , bestselling author Richard Florida argues that we should instead see the recent recession as an opportunity to create entirely new ways of working and living

Effects of different cooking methods on fatty acid profiles in four freshwater fishes from the Laurentian Great Lakes region.

Science.gov (United States)

Neff, Margaret R; Bhavsar, Satyendra P; Braekevelt, Eric; Arts, Michael T

2014-12-01

Fish is often promoted as a healthy part of the human diet due its high content of long chain n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (LC-PUFA). Previous studies have shown that cooked fish can have different fatty acid profiles than raw fillets, depending on the cooking method and fish species. In this study, the fatty acid content of broiled, baked or fried skinless, boneless fillets of four fish species from the tributaries of the Great Lakes, or connecting rivers, was compared to fatty acid profiles in raw sections from the same fillet. Cooking treatments had little effect on n-3 fatty acid content; however, fried treatments generally had higher n-6 and MUFA content, which is likely a result of the cooking oil used (canola). Broiling or baking is generally the most healthy option presented in this study, as these methods result in lower levels of less-favourable fatty acids; however, the choice of cooking oil may also influence the overall fatty acid content in cooked fish. Crown Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Model of the PCB and mercury exposure of mink and great blue heron inhabiting the off-site environment downstream from the US Department of Energy Oak Ridge Reservation. Environmental Restoration Program

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

MacIntosh, D.L. [Indiana Univ., Bloomington, IN (United States). School of Public and Environmental Affairs; Suter, G.W. II; Hoffman, F.O. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States)

1992-09-01

This report presents a pair of wildlife exposure models developed for use in investigating the risks to wildlife of releases of mercury and PCBS. The species modeled are the great blue heron and mink The models may be used to estimate the exposure experienced by mink and herons, to help establish remedial action goals and to identify research needs. Because mercury and PCBs bioaccumulate through dietary uptake, the models simulate the food webs supporting the two species. Sources of contaminants include surface water, sediment, sediment pore water, and soil. The model are stochastic equilibrium models. Two types of variance in the input parameters are distinguished: stochastic variance among individual mink and herons and ignorance concerning true parameter values. The variance in the output due to stochastic parameters indicates the expected variance among the receptors. The variance due to ignorance indicates the extent to which the model outputs could be unpaved by additional sampling and measurement. The results of the models were compared to concentrations measured in great blue heron eggs and nestlings from colonies on the Clinch and Tennessee Rivers. The predicted concentrations agreed well with the measured concentrations. In addition, the variances in measured values among individuals was approximately equal to the total stochastic variance predicted by the models.

["Great jobs"-also in psychiatry?].

Science.gov (United States)

Spiessl, H; Hübner-Liebermann, B

2003-09-01

Against the background of a beginning shortage of psychiatrists, results from interviews with 112 employees of an automotive company with the topic "Great Job" are presented to discuss their relevance to psychiatry. The interviews were analysed by means of a qualitative content analysis. Most employees assigned importance to great pay, constructive collaboration with colleagues, and work appealing to personal interests. Further statements particularly relevant to psychiatry were: successful career, flexible working hours, manageable job, work-life balance, well-founded training, no bureaucracy within the company, and personal status in society. The well-known economic restrictions in health care and the still negative attitude towards psychiatry currently reduce the attraction of psychiatry as a profession. From the viewpoint of personnel management, the attractors of a great job revealed in this study are proposed as important clues for the recruitment of medical students for psychiatry and the development of psychiatric staff.

The Great Firewall of China: A Critical Analysis

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Whiting, Michael D

2008-01-01

Censorship has a great impact on society as we enter the cyber environment. The Chinese "Great Firewall", as it is commonly called, brings great attention to China as they enter into the global economy...

A wonderful laboratory and a great researcher

Science.gov (United States)

Sheikh, N. M.

2004-05-01

It was great to be associated with Prof. Dr. Karl Rawer. He devoted his life to make use of the wonderful laboratory of Nature, the Ionosphere. Through acquisition of the experimental data from AEROS satellites and embedding it with data from ground stations, it was possible to achieve a better empirical model, the International Reference Ionosphere. Prof. Dr. Karl Rawer has been as dynamic as the Ionosphere. His vision about the ionospheric data is exceptional and has helped the scientific and engineering community to make use of his vision in advancing the dimensions of empirical modelling. As a human being, Prof. Dr. Karl Rawer has all the traits of an angel from Heaven. In short he developed a large team of researchers forming a blooming tree from the parent node. Ionosphere still plays an important role in over the horizon HF Radar and GPs satellite data reduction.

Uncertainty of SWAT model at different DEM resolutions in a large mountainous watershed.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Peipei; Liu, Ruimin; Bao, Yimeng; Wang, Jiawei; Yu, Wenwen; Shen, Zhenyao

2014-04-15

The objective of this study was to enhance understanding of the sensitivity of the SWAT model to the resolutions of Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) based on the analysis of multiple evaluation indicators. The Xiangxi River, a large tributary of Three Gorges Reservoir in China, was selected as the study area. A range of 17 DEM spatial resolutions, from 30 to 1000 m, was examined, and the annual and monthly model outputs based on each resolution were compared. The following results were obtained: (i) sediment yield was greatly affected by DEM resolution; (ii) the prediction of dissolved oxygen load was significantly affected by DEM resolutions coarser than 500 m; (iii) Total Nitrogen (TN) load was not greatly affected by the DEM resolution; (iv) Nitrate Nitrogen (NO₃-N) and Total Phosphorus (TP) loads were slightly affected by the DEM resolution; and (v) flow and Ammonia Nitrogen (NH₄-N) load were essentially unaffected by the DEM resolution. The flow and dissolved oxygen load decreased more significantly in the dry season than in the wet and normal seasons. Excluding flow and dissolved oxygen, the uncertainties of the other Hydrology/Non-point Source (H/NPS) pollution indicators were greater in the wet season than in the dry and normal seasons. Considering the temporal distribution uncertainties, the optimal DEM resolutions for flow was 30-200 m, for sediment and TP was 30-100 m, for dissolved oxygen and NO₃-N was 30-300 m, for NH₄-N was 30 to 70 m and for TN was 30-150 m. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Plasmonic Resonances for Spectroscopy Applications using 3D Finite-Difference Time-Domain Models

Science.gov (United States)

Ravi, Aruna

composition. The chemical composition of respirable particles is of great interest from health, atmospheric, and environmental perspectives. Different environments may pose different hazards and spectroscopic challenges. Common mineral components of airborne and atmospheric dust samples have strong IR transitions with wavelengths that match particle size, giving rise to interesting lineshape distortions. These models enable the determination of volume fractions of components in individual particles that are mixtures of many materials, as are the dust particles inhaled into people's lungs.

Root growth during molar eruption in extant great apes.

Science.gov (United States)

Kelley, Jay; Dean, Christopher; Ross, Sasha

2009-01-01

While there is gradually accumulating knowledge about molar crown formation and the timing of molar eruption in extant great apes, very little is known about root formation during the eruption process. We measured mandibular first and second molar root lengths in extant great ape osteological specimens that died while either the first or second molars were in the process of erupting. For most specimens, teeth were removed so that root lengths could be measured directly. When this was not possible, roots were measured radiographically. We were particularly interested in the variation in the lengths of first molar roots near the point of gingival emergence, so specimens were divided into early, middle and late phases of eruption based on the number of cusps that showed protein staining, with one or two cusps stained equated with immediate post-gingival emergence. For first molars at this stage, Gorilla has the longest roots, followed by Pongo and Pan. Variation in first molar mesial root lengths at this stage in Gorilla and Pan, which comprise the largest samples, is relatively low and represents no more than a few months of growth in both taxa. Knowledge of root length at first molar emergence permits an assessment of the contribution of root growth toward differences between great apes and humans in the age at first molar emergence. Root growth makes up a greater percentage of the time between birth and first molar emergence in humans than it does in any of the great apes. Copyright (c) 2009 S. Karger AG, Basel.

The survival of the great financial journalism

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Elvira CALVO GUTIÉRREZ

2014-07-01

Full Text Available Traditionally, the economic international journalism has had in the Anglo-Saxon groups Dow Jones (USA and Pearson (Great Britain, publishers of The Wall Street and Financial Times respectively, his big world models. Nevertheless, the new century has brought enormous convulsions to the sector, to the newspapaers of elite and big agencies specialized in economic information as Reuters, Thomson or Bloomberg. To the battle in Internet, there add the expansion of the informative economic power and the changes of mentality of the companies and of the audiences. All this has derived in a fierce war led by the big leaders who, with more than one century of tradition someones, have been object of sales or mergers, financial indispensable operations to be able to adapt to the new times. The aim of this article is to analyze the path of the great economic journalism, with special dedication to two fronts: one, to know how these neswspapers of elite are positioned in the network; other one, the dilemma between continuing being a journalism of quality, rigorous, cosmopolitan and expensive of supporting, or to change towards an ideological, gruesome journalism or amarillista that, since in other specialities, also has spread between the financial journalism

Anticoagulant rodenticides in red-tailed hawks, Buteo jamaicensis, and great horned owls, Bubo virginianus, from New Jersey, USA, 2008-2010.

Science.gov (United States)

Stansley, William; Cummings, Margaret; Vudathala, Daljit; Murphy, Lisa A

2014-01-01

Liver samples from red-tailed hawks (Buteo jamaicensis) and great horned owls (Bubo virginianus) were analyzed for anticoagulant rodenticides. Residues of one or more second generation anticoagulant rodenticides (SGARs) were detected in 81 % of red-tailed hawks and 82 % of great horned owls. The most frequently detected SGAR was brodifacoum, which was detected in 76 % of red-tailed hawks and 73 % of great horned owls. Bromadiolone was detected in 20 % of red-tailed hawks and 27 % of great horned owls. Difenacoum was detected in one great horned owl. No other ARs were detected. There were no significant differences between species in the frequency of detection or concentration of brodifacoum or bromadiolone. There was a marginally significant difference (p = 0.0497) between total SGAR residues in red-tailed hawks (0.117 mg/kg) and great horned owls (0.070 mg/kg). There were no seasonal differences in the frequency of detection or concentration of brodifacoum in red-tailed hawks. The data suggest that SGARs pose a significant risk of poisoning to predatory birds in New Jersey.

Social media use and goals after the Great East Japan Earthquake

OpenAIRE

Jung, Joo-Young

2012-01-01

This paper examines the use of social media after the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake. Based on media system dependency theory, the study focuses on the ways in which people used different types of social media to cope with a highly ambiguous situation created by the earthquake. A survey of Japanese university students revealed that the respondents used different forms of social media with different goals. Moreover, use of a particular social media type influenced the relative importance of ...

A numerical model investigation of the impacts of Hurricane Sandy on water level variability in Great South Bay, New York

Science.gov (United States)

Bennett, Vanessa C. C.; Mulligan, Ryan P.; Hapke, Cheryl J.

2018-06-01

Hurricane Sandy was a large and intense storm with high winds that caused total water levels from combined tides and storm surge to reach 4.0 m in the Atlantic Ocean and 2.5 m in Great South Bay (GSB), a back-barrier bay between Fire Island and Long Island, New York. In this study the impact of the hurricane winds and waves are examined in order to understand the flow of ocean water into the back-barrier bay and water level variations within the bay. To accomplish this goal, a high resolution hurricane wind field is used to drive the coupled Delft3D-SWAN hydrodynamic and wave models over a series of grids with the finest resolution in GSB. The processes that control water levels in the back-barrier bay are investigated by comparing the results of four cases that include: (i) tides only; (ii) tides, winds and waves with no overwash over Fire Island allowed; (iii) tides, winds, waves and limited overwash at the east end of the island; (iv) tides, winds, waves and extensive overwash along the island. The results indicate that strong local wind-driven storm surge along the bay axis had the largest influence on the total water level fluctuations during the hurricane. However, the simulations allowing for overwash have higher correlation with water level observations in GSB and suggest that island overwash provided a significant contribution of ocean water to eastern GSB during the storm. The computations indicate that overwash of 7500-10,000 m3s-1 was approximately the same as the inflow from the ocean through the major existing inlet. Overall, the model results indicate the complex variability in total water levels driven by tides, ocean storm surge, surge from local winds, and overwash that had a significant impact on the circulation in Great South Bay during Hurricane Sandy.

The Indian Stock Market and the Great Recession

OpenAIRE

Arindam MANDAL; Prasun BHATTACHARJEE

2012-01-01

This study analyzes the impact of the outbreak of the Great Recession of 2007 on the behavior of the Indian stock market. The SENSEX index of the Bombay Stock Exchange is analyzed for the prerecession period of January 2002 – November 2007 and the postrecession outbreak period of December 2007 – July 2010. Substantial increase in SENSEX return volatility observed during the post-recession outbreak period, whereas no substantial difference in returns between two periods is...

Spatial modelling of Calanus finmarchicus and Calanus helgolandicus: parameter differences explain differences in biogeography

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Robert John Wilson

2016-09-01

Full Text Available The North Atlantic copepods Calanus finmarchicus and C. helgolandicus are moving north in response to rising temperatures. Understanding the drivers of their relative geographic distributions is required in order to anticipate future changes. To explore this, we created a new spatially explicit stage-structured model of their populations throughout the North Atlantic. Recent advances in understanding Calanus biology, including U-shaped relationships between growth and fecundity and temperature, and a new model of diapause duration are incorporated in the model. Equations were identical for both species, but some parameters were species-specific. The model was parameterized using Continuous Plankton Recorder Survey data and tested using time series of abundance and fecundity. The geographic distributions of both species were reproduced by assuming that only known interspecific differences and a difference in the temperature influence on mortality exist. We show that differences in diapause capability are not necessary to explain why C. helgolandicus is restricted to the continental shelf. Smaller body size and higher overwinter temperatures likely make true diapause implausible for C. helgolandicus. Known differences were incapable of explaining why only C. helgolandicus exists southwest of the British Isles. Further, the fecundity of C. helgolandicus in the English Channel is much lower than we predict. We hypothesize that food quality is a key influence on the population dynamics of these species. The modelling framework presented can potentially be extended to further Calanus species.

Comparison of Different Height–Diameter Modelling Techniques for Prediction of Site Productivity in Natural Uneven-Aged Pure Stands

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Guangshuang Duan

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Reliable estimates of forest site productivity are a central element of forest management. The model of height-diameter relationship of dominant trees using algebraic difference approach (ADA is a commonly used method to measure site productivity of natural uneven-aged stands. However, the existing models of this method do not recognize site type or sample plot specific variability in height curves; thus, it cannot be effectively used to estimate site type or sample plot-related site productivity for natural uneven-aged stands. Two primary subject-specific approaches, ADA with dummy variable (DV (ADA + DV and ADA with combination of dummy variable and nonlinear mixed-effects modelling (CM (ADA + CM, were proposed for height–diameter modelling. Height–diameter models developed with ADA, ADA + DV and ADA + CM were compared using data from 4161 observations on 349 permanent sample plots of four major natural uneven-aged pure stands (Spruce, Korean Larch, Mongolian Oak, and White Birch in northeastern China. It was found that models developed with ADA + CM provided the best performance, followed by the models with ADA + DV, and the models developed with ADA performed the worst. Random effects at the plot level were substantial, and their inclusion greatly improved the model’s accuracy. More importantly, the models developed with ADA + CM provide an effective method for quantifying site type- and sample plot-specific forest site productivity for uneven-aged pure stands.

Using Scenario Development to Encourage Tourism Business Resilience in the Great Lakes

Science.gov (United States)

Chin, N.; Day, J.; Sydnor, S.; Cherkauer, K. A.

2015-12-01

Tourism is an economic sector anticipated to be greatly affected by climate change, but the potential impacts of climate change on tourism have rarely been examined in detail in existing research. Past research has shown, however, that the small and medium businesses that dominate the tourism sector could be greatly impacted by climate change. We have presented global climate and hydrologic model research results to pre-selected coastal tourism business owners in the Great Lakes region to determine the best methods for delivering user-friendly future climate scenarios, given that existing research suggests that climate change adaptive behaviors and resilience increase with information (message) clarity. Model output analyses completed for this work have focused on temperature, precipitation, and extreme weather events due to their economic impact on tourism activities. We have also experimented with the development and use of infographics because of their ability to present information quickly and clearly. Initial findings of this work will be presented as well as lessons learned from stakeholder interactions. Two main results include that (1) extreme weather events may have more meaning to tourism business owners than general trends in climate and (2) long-term planning for climate is extremely difficult for tourism business owners because they operate on a much shorter planning timeline than those generally used for climate change analyses.

Multilevel eEmpirical Bayes modeling for improved estimation of toxicant formulations tosuppress parasitic sea lamprey in the Upper Great Lakes

Science.gov (United States)

Hatfield, Laura A.; Gutreuter, Steve; Boogaard, Michael A.; Carlin, Bradley P.

2011-01-01

Estimation of extreme quantal-response statistics, such as the concentration required to kill 99.9% of test subjects (LC99.9), remains a challenge in the presence of multiple covariates and complex study designs. Accurate and precise estimates of the LC99.9 for mixtures of toxicants are critical to ongoing control of a parasitic invasive species, the sea lamprey, in the Laurentian Great Lakes of North America. The toxicity of those chemicals is affected by local and temporal variations in water chemistry, which must be incorporated into the modeling. We develop multilevel empirical Bayes models for data from multiple laboratory studies. Our approach yields more accurate and precise estimation of the LC99.9 compared to alternative models considered. This study demonstrates that properly incorporating hierarchical structure in laboratory data yields better estimates of LC99.9 stream treatment values that are critical to larvae control in the field. In addition, out-of-sample prediction of the results of in situ tests reveals the presence of a latent seasonal effect not manifest in the laboratory studies, suggesting avenues for future study and illustrating the importance of dual consideration of both experimental and observational data.

Famous puzzles of great mathematicians

CERN Document Server

Petković, Miodrag S

2009-01-01

This entertaining book presents a collection of 180 famous mathematical puzzles and intriguing elementary problems that great mathematicians have posed, discussed, and/or solved. The selected problems do not require advanced mathematics, making this book accessible to a variety of readers. Mathematical recreations offer a rich playground for both amateur and professional mathematicians. Believing that creative stimuli and aesthetic considerations are closely related, great mathematicians from ancient times to the present have always taken an interest in puzzles and diversions. The goal of this

Modelling Farm Animal Welfare

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chérie E. Part

2013-05-01

Full Text Available The use of models in the life sciences has greatly expanded in scope and advanced in technique in recent decades. However, the range, type and complexity of models used in farm animal welfare is comparatively poor, despite the great scope for use of modeling in this field of research. In this paper, we review the different modeling approaches used in farm animal welfare science to date, discussing the types of questions they have been used to answer, the merits and problems associated with the method, and possible future applications of each technique. We find that the most frequently published types of model used in farm animal welfare are conceptual and assessment models; two types of model that are frequently (though not exclusively based on expert opinion. Simulation, optimization, scenario, and systems modeling approaches are rarer in animal welfare, despite being commonly used in other related fields. Finally, common issues such as a lack of quantitative data to parameterize models, and model selection and validation are discussed throughout the review, with possible solutions and alternative approaches suggested.

TRANSPOSITION OF GREAT ARTERIES: NEW INSIGHTS INTO THE PATHOGENESIS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marta eUnolt

2013-06-01

Full Text Available Transposition of great arteries (TGA is one of the most common and severe congenital heart diseases (CHD. It is also one of the most mysterious CHD because it has no precedent in phylogenetic and ontogenetic development, it does not represent an alternative physiological model of blood circulation and its etiology and morphogenesis are still largely unknown. However, recent epidemiologic, experimental and genetic data suggest new insights into the pathogenesis. TGA is very rarely associated with the most frequent genetic syndromes, such as Turner, Noonan, Williams or Marfan syndromes, and in Down syndrome, it is virtually absent. The only genetic syndrome with a strong relation with TGA is Heterotaxy. Moreover, TGA is rather frequent in cases of isolated dextrocardia with situs solitus, showing link with defect of visceral situs. In lateralization defects TGA is frequently associated with asplenia syndrome. Nowadays, the most reliable method to induce TGA consists in treating pregnant mice with retinoic acid or with retinoic acid inhibitors. Following such treatment not only cases of TGA with d-ventricular loop have been registered, but also some cases of congenitally corrected transposition of great arteries (CCTGA. In another experiment, the embryos of mice treated with retinoic acid in day 6.5 presented Heterotaxy, suggesting a relationship among these morphologically different CHD. In some families, beside TGA cases, there were first-degree relatives with CCTGA. This data suggest that monogenic inheritance with a variable phenotypic expression could explain the familial aggregation of TGA and CCTGA. In some of these families we previously found multiple mutations in laterality genes including Nodal and ZIC3, confirming a pathogenetic relation between TGA and Heterotaxy. These overall data suggest to include TGA in the pathogenetic group of laterality defects instead of conotruncal abnormalities due to ectomesenchymal tissue migration.

Rating impacts in a multi-stressor world: a quantitative assessment of 50 stressors affecting the Great Lakes.

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, Sigrid D P; Mcintyre, Peter B; Halpern, Benjamin S; Cooke, Roger M; Marino, Adrienne L; Boyer, Gregory L; Buchsbaum, Andy; Burton, G A; Campbell, Linda M; Ciborowski, Jan J H; Doran, Patrick J; Infante, Dana M; Johnson, Lucinda B; Read, Jennifer G; Rose, Joan B; Rutherford, Edward S; Steinman, Alan D; Allan, J David

2015-04-01

Ecosystems often experience multiple environmental stressors simultaneously that can differ widely in their pathways and strengths of impact. Differences in the relative impact of environmental stressors can guide restoration and management prioritization, but few studies have empirically assessed a comprehensive suite of stressors acting on a given ecosystem. To fill this gap in the Laurentian Great Lakes, where considerable restoration investments are currently underway, we used expert elicitation via a detailed online survey to develop ratings of the relative impacts of 50 potential stressors. Highlighting the multiplicity of stressors in this system, experts assessed all 50 stressors as having some impact on ecosystem condition, but ratings differed greatly among stressors. Individual stressors related to invasive and nuisance species (e.g., dreissenid mussels and ballast invasion risk) and climate change were assessed as having the greatest potential impacts. These results mark a shift away from the longstanding emphasis on nonpoint phosphorus and persistent bioaccumulative toxic substances in the Great Lakes. Differences in impact ratings among lakes and ecosystem zones were weak, and experts exhibited surprisingly high levels of agreement on the relative impacts of most stressors. Our results provide a basin-wide, quantitative summary of expert opinion on the present-day influence of all major Great Lakes stressors. The resulting ratings can facilitate prioritizing stressors to achieve management objectives in a given location, as well as providing a baseline for future stressor impact assessments in the Great Lakes and elsewhere.

The Great London Smog of 1952.

Science.gov (United States)

Polivka, Barbara J

2018-04-01

: The Great London Smog of December 1952 lasted five days and killed up to 12,000 people. The smog developed primarily because of extensive burning of high-sulfur coal. The health effects were both immediate and long lasting, with a recent study revealing an increased likelihood of childhood asthma development in those exposed to the Great Smog while in utero or during their first year of life. Subsequent pollution legislation-including the U.S. Clean Air Act and its amendments-have demonstrably reduced air pollution and positively impacted health outcomes. With poor air quality events like the Great Smog continuing to occur today, nurses need to be aware of the impact such environmental disasters can have on human health.

Bearing Capacity Analyses for the Great Belt East Bridge Anchor Blocks

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sørensen, Carsten Steen; Clausen, Carl J. Frimann; Andersen, Henrik

1993-01-01

This paper presents a comparison between different methods of bearing capacity analyses: Upper Bound Method. Limit Equilibrium Analysis and Finite Element Analysis. For the Great Belt East Bridge anchor blocks it was concluded that these methods of calculation agree within 5%. However, for cases ...

Why Did People Move During the Great Recession?: The Role of Economics in Migration Decisions.

Science.gov (United States)

Levy, Brian L; Mouw, Ted; Daniel Perez, Anthony

2017-04-01

Labor migration offers an important mechanism to reallocate workers when there are regional differences in employment conditions. Whereas conventional wisdom suggests migration rates should increase during recessions as workers move out of areas that are hit hardest, initial evidence suggested that overall migration rates declined during the Great Recession, despite large regional differences in unemployment and growth rates. In this paper, we use data from the American Community Survey to analyze internal migration trends before and during the economic downturn. First, we find only a modest decline in the odds of adults leaving distressed labor market areas during the recession, which may result in part from challenges related to the housing price crash. Second, we estimate conditional logit models of destination choice for individuals who migrate across labor market areas and find a substantial effect of economic factors such as labor demand, unemployment, and housing values. We also estimate latent class conditional logit models that test whether there is heterogeneity in preferences for destination characteristics among migrants. Over all, the latent class models suggest that roughly equal percentages of migrants were motivated by economic factors before and during the recession. We conclude that fears of dramatic declines in labor migration seem to be unsubstantiated.

Analyzing Variability in Landscape Nutrient Loading Using Spatially-Explicit Maps in the Great Lakes Basin

Science.gov (United States)

Hamlin, Q. F.; Kendall, A. D.; Martin, S. L.; Whitenack, H. D.; Roush, J. A.; Hannah, B. A.; Hyndman, D. W.

2017-12-01

Excessive loading of nitrogen and phosphorous to the landscape has caused biologically and economically damaging eutrophication and harmful algal blooms in the Great Lakes Basin (GLB) and across the world. We mapped source-specific loads of nitrogen and phosphorous to the landscape using broadly available data across the GLB. SENSMap (Spatially Explicit Nutrient Source Map) is a 30m resolution snapshot of nutrient loads ca. 2010. We use these maps to study variable nutrient loading and provide this information to watershed managers through NOAA's GLB Tipping Points Planner. SENSMap individually maps nutrient point sources and six non-point sources: 1) atmospheric deposition, 2) septic tanks, 3) non-agricultural chemical fertilizer, 4) agricultural chemical fertilizer, 5) manure, and 6) nitrogen fixation from legumes. To model source-specific loads at high resolution, SENSMap synthesizes a wide range of remotely sensed, surveyed, and tabular data. Using these spatially explicit nutrient loading maps, we can better calibrate local land use-based water quality models and provide insight to watershed managers on how to focus nutrient reduction strategies. Here we examine differences in dominant nutrient sources across the GLB, and how those sources vary by land use. SENSMap's high resolution, source-specific approach offers a different lens to understand nutrient loading than traditional semi-distributed or land use based models.

Great Expectations for Middle School Counselors

Science.gov (United States)

Wright, Robert J.

2012-01-01

During the Great Recession, 2008 to 2010, school systems scrambled to balance budgets, and the ratio of counselors to students became even larger. To make matters worse, the Great Recession had a major impact on cuts in educational funding. Budget cutbacks tend to occur where the public will be least likely to notice. The loss of teachers and the…

Vocal neighbour-mate discrimination in female great tits despite high song similarity

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Blumenrath, Sandra H.; Dabelsteen, Torben; Pedersen, Simon Boel

2007-01-01

Discrimination between conspecifics is important in mediating social interactions between several individuals in a network environment. In great tits, Parus major, females readily distinguish between the songs of their mate and those of a stranger. The high degree of song sharing among neighbouring...... males, however, raises the question of whether females are also able to perceive differences between songs shared by their mate and a neighbour. The great tit is a socially monogamous, hole-nesting species with biparental care. Pair bond maintenance and coordination of the pair's reproductive efforts...... are important, and the female's ability to recognize her mate's song should therefore be adaptive. In a neighbour-mate discrimination playback experiment, we presented 13 incubating great tit females situated inside nestboxes with a song of their mate and the same song type from a neighbour. Each female...

Climate change and environmentally responsible behavior on the Great Barrier Reef, Australia

Science.gov (United States)

Jee In Yoon; Gerard Kyle; Carena J. vanRiper; Stephen G. Sutton

2012-01-01

This study explored the relationship between Australians' perceptions of climate change, its impact on the Great Barrier Reef (GBR), and predictors of environmentally responsible behavior (ERB). Our hypothesized model suggested that general attitudes toward climate change, social pressure for engaging in ERBs (subjective norms), and perceived behavioral control (...

Comparison of Different Fuel Temperature Models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Weddig, Beatrice

2003-02-01

The purpose of this work is to improve the performance of the core calculation system used in Ringhals for in-core fuel management. It has been observed that, whereas the codes yield results that are in good agreement with measurements when the core operates at full nominal power, this agreement deteriorates noticeably when the reactor is running at reduced power. This deficiency of the code system was observed by comparing the calculated and measured boron concentrations in the moderator of the PWR. From the neutronic point of view, the difference between full power and reduced power in the same core is the different temperature of the fuel and the moderator. Whereas the coolant temperature can be measured and is thus relatively well known, the fuel temperature is only inferred from the moderator temperature as well as neutron physics and heat transfer calculations. The most likely reason for the above mentioned discrepancy is therefore the uncertainty of the fuel temperature at low power, and hence the incorrect calculation of the fuel temperature reactivity feedback through the so called Doppler effect. To obtain the fuel temperature at low power, usually some semi-empirical relations, sometimes called correlations, are used. The above-mentioned inaccuracy of the core calculation procedures can thus be tracked down to the insufficiency of these correlations. Therefore, the suggestion is that the above mentioned deficiency of the core calculation codes can be eliminated or reduced if the fuel temperature correlations are improved. An improved model, called the 30% model, is implemented in SIMULATE-3, the core calculation code used at Ringhals. The accuracy of the 30% model was compared to that of the present model by considering a number of cases, where measured values of the boron concentration at low power were available, and comparing them with calculated values using both the present and the new model. It was found that on the whole, the new fuel temperature

Comparison of Different Fuel Temperature Models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Weddig, Beatrice

2003-02-01

The purpose of this work is to improve the performance of the core calculation system used in Ringhals for in-core fuel management. It has been observed that, whereas the codes yield results that are in good agreement with measurements when the core operates at full nominal power, this agreement deteriorates noticeably when the reactor is running at reduced power. This deficiency of the code system was observed by comparing the calculated and measured boron concentrations in the moderator of the PWR. From the neutronic point of view, the difference between full power and reduced power in the same core is the different temperature of the fuel and the moderator. Whereas the coolant temperature can be measured and is thus relatively well known, the fuel temperature is only inferred from the moderator temperature as well as neutron physics and heat transfer calculations. The most likely reason for the above mentioned discrepancy is therefore the uncertainty of the fuel temperature at low power, and hence the incorrect calculation of the fuel temperature reactivity feedback through the so called Doppler effect. To obtain the fuel temperature at low power, usually some semi-empirical relations, sometimes called correlations, are used. The above-mentioned inaccuracy of the core calculation procedures can thus be tracked down to the insufficiency of these correlations. Therefore, the suggestion is that the above mentioned deficiency of the core calculation codes can be eliminated or reduced if the fuel temperature correlations are improved. An improved model, called the 30% model, is implemented in SIMULATE-3, the core calculation code used at Ringhals. The accuracy of the 30% model was compared to that of the present model by considering a number of cases, where measured values of the boron concentration at low power were available, and comparing them with calculated values using both the present and the new model. It was found that on the whole, the new fuel temperature

Modelling sulfamethoxazole degradation under different redox conditions

Science.gov (United States)

Sanchez-Vila, X.; Rodriguez-Escales, P.

2015-12-01

Sulfamethoxazole (SMX) is a low adsorptive, polar, sulfonamide antibiotic, widely present in aquatic environments. Degradation of SMX in subsurface porous media is spatially and temporally variable, depending on various environmental factors such as in situ redox potential, availability of nutrients, local soil characteristics, and temperature. It has been reported that SMX is better degraded under anoxic conditions and by co-metabolism processes. In this work, we first develop a conceptual model of degradation of SMX under different redox conditions (denitrification and iron reducing conditions), and second, we construct a mathematical model that allows reproducing different experiments of SMX degradation reported in the literature. The conceptual model focuses on the molecular behavior and contemplates the formation of different metabolites. The model was validated using the experimental data from Barbieri et al. (2012) and Mohatt et al. (2011). It adequately reproduces the reversible degradation of SMX under the presence of nitrite as an intermediate product of denitrification. In those experiments degradation was mediated by the transient formation of a diazonium cation, which was considered responsible of the substitution of the amine radical by a nitro radical, forming the 4-nitro-SMX. The formation of this metabolite is a reversible process, so that once the concentration of nitrite was back to zero due to further advancement of denitrification, the concentration of SMX was fully recovered. The forward reaction, formation of 4-nitro SMX, was modeled considering a kinetic of second order, whereas the backward reaction, dissociation of 4-nitro-SMX back to the original compound, could be modeled with a first order degradation reaction. Regarding the iron conditions, SMX was degraded due to the oxidation of iron (Fe2+), which was previously oxidized from goethite due to the degradation of a pool of labile organic carbon. As the oxidation of iron occurred on the

Priority setting for invasive species management: risk assessment of Ponto-Caspian invasive species into Great Britain.

Science.gov (United States)

Gallardo, Belinda; Aldridge, David C

2013-03-01

Invasive species drive important ecological and economic losses across wide geographies, with some regions supporting especially large numbers of nonnative species and consequently suffering relatively high impacts. For this reason, integrated risk assessments able to screen a suite of multiple invaders over large geographic areas are needed for prioritizing the allocation of limited resources. A total of 16 Ponto-Caspian aquatic species (10 gammarids, one isopod, two mysids, and three fishes) have been short-listed as recent or potential future invaders of British waters, whose introduction and spread is of high concern. In this study, we use multiple modeling techniques to assess their risk of establishment and spread into Great Britain. Climate suitability maps for these 16 species differed depending on the eastern and western distribution of species in continental Europe, which was related to their respective migration corridor: southern (Danube-Rhine rivers), and northern (Don and Volga rivers and Baltic lakes). Species whose suitability was high across large parts of Great Britain included four gammarids (Cheliorophium robustum, Dikerogammarus bispinosus, D. villosus, and Echinogammarus trichiatus) and a mysid (Hemimysis anomala). A climatic "heat map" combining the results of all 16 species together pointed to the southeast of England as the area most vulnerable to multiple invasions, particularly the Thames, Anglian, Severn, and Humber river basin districts. Regression models further suggested that alkalinity concentration > 120 mg/L in southeast England may favor the establishment of Ponto-Caspian invaders. The production of integrated risk maps for future invaders provides a means for the scientifically informed prioritization of resources toward particular species and geographic regions. Such tools have great utility in helping environmental managers focus efforts on the most effective prevention, management, and monitoring programs.

Price, Weather, and `Acreage Abandonment' in Western Great Plains Wheat Culture.

Science.gov (United States)

Michaels, Patrick J.

1983-07-01

Multivariate analyses of acreage abandonment patterns in the U.S. Great Plains winter wheat region indicate that the major mode of variation is an in-phase oscillation confined to the western half of the overall area, which is also the area with lowest average yields. This is one of the more agroclimatically marginal environments in the United States, with wide interannual fluctuations in both climate and profitability.We developed a multiple regression model to determine the relative roles of weather and expected price in the decision not to harvest. The overall model explained 77% of the spatial and temporal variation in abandonment. The 36.5% of the non-spatial variation was explained by two simple transformations of climatic data from three monthly aggregates-September-October, November-February and March-April. Price factors, expressed as indexed future delivery quotations,were barely significant, with only between 3 and 5% of the non-spatial variation explained, depending upon the model.The model was based upon weather, climate and price data from 1932 through 1975. It was tested by sequentially withholding three-year blocks of data, and using the respecified regression coefficients, along with observed weather and price, to estimate abandonment in the withheld years. Error analyses indicate no loss of model fidelity in the test mode. Also, prediction errors in the 1970-75 period, characterized by widely fluctuating prices, were not different from those in the rest of the model.The overall results suggest that the perceived quality of the crop, as influenced by weather, is a much more important determinant of the abandonment decision than are expected returns based upon price considerations.

Traces of the Great War. Architecture and restoration a century on

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gian Paolo Treccani

2014-06-01

Full Text Available One hundred years after the First World War, the essay intends to review the systems adopted for protection of historic buil- dings, along with the damage suffered, and reconstruction after the war. The two wars which, in the 20th century, involved Italy, and severely damaged its historical patrimony, had different outcomes and gave rise to very different memories. Damage caused by the Second World War (1939-45 was much more serious, and the memories which historians of art, architects and restorers produced, in the form of documents and popular essays, are vast. However, the Great War, especially in the North-East of Italy, produced profound changes, not only due to the complete ruin of entire villages (Asiago, Conegliano and others, but, as it is known, also due to the serious damage which Venice, Verona, Treviso suffered through bombings. Unlike the Second World War, which was in every way destructive, the Great War, also because of specific strategies and military techniques, was in some way a “constructive” war: it led to the construction of huge military buildings (barracks, fortress, infrastructures, etc.. For this reason, the Great War was probably the last conflictin human history which, paradoxically, produced new buildings and new landscapes. These inheritances, which very often show high technical and aesthetic qualities, have had little recogni- tion, and even less investment for conservation and re-use.

Great Indoors Awards 2007

Index Scriptorium Estoniae

2007-01-01

Hollandis Maastrichtis jagati 17. XI esimest korda rahvusvahelist auhinda The Great Indoors Award. Aasta sisekujundusfirmaks valiti Masamichi Katayama asutatud Wonderwall. Auhinna said veel Zaha Hadid, Heatherwick Studio, Ryui Nakamura Architects ja Item Idem

Performance of different radiotherapy workload models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Barbera, Lisa; Jackson, Lynda D.; Schulze, Karleen; Groome, Patti A.; Foroudi, Farshad; Delaney, Geoff P.; Mackillop, William J.

2003-01-01

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to evaluate the performance of different radiotherapy workload models using a prospectively collected dataset of patient and treatment information from a single center. Methods and Materials: Information about all individual radiotherapy treatments was collected for 2 weeks from the three linear accelerators (linacs) in our department. This information included diagnosis code, treatment site, treatment unit, treatment time, fields per fraction, technique, beam type, blocks, wedges, junctions, port films, and Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) performance status. We evaluated the accuracy and precision of the original and revised basic treatment equivalent (BTE) model, the simple and complex Addenbrooke models, the equivalent simple treatment visit (ESTV) model, fields per hour, and two local standards of workload measurement. Results: Data were collected for 2 weeks in June 2001. During this time, 151 patients were treated with 857 fractions. The revised BTE model performed better than the other models with a mean vertical bar observed - predicted vertical bar of 2.62 (2.44-2.80). It estimated 88.0% of treatment times within 5 min, which is similar to the previously reported accuracy of the model. Conclusion: The revised BTE model had similar accuracy and precision for data collected in our center as it did for the original dataset and performed the best of the models assessed. This model would have uses for patient scheduling, and describing workloads and case complexity

Developing and implementing the use of predictive models for estimating water quality at Great Lakes beaches

Science.gov (United States)

Francy, Donna S.; Brady, Amie M.G.; Carvin, Rebecca B.; Corsi, Steven R.; Fuller, Lori M.; Harrison, John H.; Hayhurst, Brett A.; Lant, Jeremiah; Nevers, Meredith B.; Terrio, Paul J.; Zimmerman, Tammy M.

2013-01-01

Predictive models have been used at beaches to improve the timeliness and accuracy of recreational water-quality assessments over the most common current approach to water-quality monitoring, which relies on culturing fecal-indicator bacteria such as Escherichia coli (E. coli.). Beach-specific predictive models use environmental and water-quality variables that are easily and quickly measured as surrogates to estimate concentrations of fecal-indicator bacteria or to provide the probability that a State recreational water-quality standard will be exceeded. When predictive models are used for beach closure or advisory decisions, they are referred to as “nowcasts.” During the recreational seasons of 2010-12, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with 23 local and State agencies, worked to improve existing nowcasts at 4 beaches, validate predictive models at another 38 beaches, and collect data for predictive-model development at 7 beaches throughout the Great Lakes. This report summarizes efforts to collect data and develop predictive models by multiple agencies and to compile existing information on the beaches and beach-monitoring programs into one comprehensive report. Local agencies measured E. coli concentrations and variables expected to affect E. coli concentrations such as wave height, turbidity, water temperature, and numbers of birds at the time of sampling. In addition to these field measurements, equipment was installed by the USGS or local agencies at or near several beaches to collect water-quality and metrological measurements in near real time, including nearshore buoys, weather stations, and tributary staff gages and monitors. The USGS worked with local agencies to retrieve data from existing sources either manually or by use of tools designed specifically to compile and process data for predictive-model development. Predictive models were developed by use of linear regression and (or) partial least squares techniques for 42 beaches

SOFIA/GREAT Discovery of Terahertz Water Masers

Science.gov (United States)

Neufeld, David A.; Melnick, Gary J.; Kaufman, Michael J.; Wiesemeyer, Helmut; Güsten, Rolf; Kraus, Alex; Menten, Karl M.; Ricken, Oliver; Faure, Alexandre

2017-07-01

We report the discovery of water maser emission at frequencies above 1 THz. Using the GREAT instrument on SOFIA, we have detected emission in the 1.296411 THz {8}27-{7}34 transition of water toward three oxygen-rich evolved stars: W Hya, U Her, and VY CMa. An upper limit on the 1.296 THz line flux was obtained toward R Aql. Near-simultaneous observations of the 22.23508 GHz {6}16-{5}23 water maser transition were carried out toward all four sources using the Effelsberg 100 m telescope. The measured line fluxes imply 22 GHz/1.296 THz photon luminosity ratios of 0.012, 0.12, and 0.83, respectively, for W Hya, U Her, and VY CMa, values that confirm the 22 GHz maser transition to be unsaturated in W Hya and U Her. We also detected the 1.884888 THz {8}45-{7}52 transition toward W Hya and VY CMa, and the 1.278266 THz {7}43-{6}52 transition toward VY CMa. Like the 22 GHz maser transition, all three of the THz emission lines detected here originate from the ortho-H2O spin isomer. Based upon a model for the circumstellar envelope of W Hya, we estimate that stimulated emission is responsible for ˜85% of the observed 1.296 THz line emission, and thus that this transition may be properly described as a terahertz-frequency maser. In the case of the 1.885 THz transition, by contrast, our W Hya model indicates that the observed emission is dominated by spontaneous radiative decay, even though a population inversion exists. GREAT is a development by the MPI für Radioastronomie and the KOSMA/Universität zu Köln, in cooperation with the MPI für Sonnensystemforschung and the DLR Institut für Planetenforschung.

Investigation into the performance of different models for predicting stutter.

Science.gov (United States)

Bright, Jo-Anne; Curran, James M; Buckleton, John S

2013-07-01

In this paper we have examined five possible models for the behaviour of the stutter ratio, SR. These were two log-normal models, two gamma models, and a two-component normal mixture model. A two-component normal mixture model was chosen with different behaviours of variance; at each locus SR was described with two distributions, both with the same mean. The distributions have difference variances: one for the majority of the observations and a second for the less well-behaved ones. We apply each model to a set of known single source Identifiler™, NGM SElect™ and PowerPlex(®) 21 DNA profiles to show the applicability of our findings to different data sets. SR determined from the single source profiles were compared to the calculated SR after application of the models. The model performance was tested by calculating the log-likelihoods and comparing the difference in Akaike information criterion (AIC). The two-component normal mixture model systematically outperformed all others, despite the increase in the number of parameters. This model, as well as performing well statistically, has intuitive appeal for forensic biologists and could be implemented in an expert system with a continuous method for DNA interpretation. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Advances in Hydrogeochemical Indicators for the Discovery of New Geothermal Resources in the Great Basin, USA

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Simmons, Stuart F. [Colorado School of Mines, Golden, CO (United States). Geology and Geological Engineering; Spycher, Nicolas [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). Earth Sciences Division; Sonnenthal, Eric [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). Earth Sciences Division; Dobson, Patrick [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). Earth Sciences Division

2013-05-20

This report summarizes the results of Phase I work for a go/no go decision on Phase II funding. In the first objective, we assessed the extent to which fluid-mineral equilibria controlled deep water compositions in geothermal systems across the Great Basin. Six systems were evaluated: Beowawe; Desert Peak; Dixie Valley; Mammoth; Raft River; Roosevelt. These represent a geographic spread of geothermal resources, in different geological settings and with a wide range of fluid compositions. The results were used for calibration/reformulation of chemical geothermometers that reflect the reservoir temperatures in producing reservoirs. In the second objective, we developed a reactive -transport model of the Desert Peak hydrothermal system to evaluate the processes that affect reservoir fluid geochemistry and its effect on solute geothermometry. This included testing geothermometry on “reacted” thermal water originating from different lithologies and from near-surface locations where the temperature is known from the simulation. The integrated multi-component geothermometer (GeoT, relying on computed mineral saturation indices) was tested against the model results and also on the systems studied in the first objective.

Using Difference Equation to Model Discrete-time Behavior in System Dynamics Modeling

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hesan, R.; Ghorbani, A.; Dignum, M.V.

2014-01-01

In system dynamics modeling, differential equations have been used as the basic mathematical operator. Using difference equation to build system dynamics models instead of differential equation, can be insightful for studying small organizations or systems with micro behavior. In this paper we

The great scientific revolutions of the 20. century; Les grandes revolutions scientifiques du 20. siecle

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Parrochia, D. [Universite Paul Valery, Montpellier 3, 34 - Montpellier (France)

1997-12-31

Three great physical revolutions are studied here: the theory of relativity (general and restricted); the quantum mechanics (and its different interpretations); the theory of the determinist chaos (its pre-history as its applications). These three theories contribute to modify the answers that it is possible to bring to great metaphysical questions and to give a hint of a new philosophical landscape. (N.C.)

Population health concerns during the United States' Great Recession.

Science.gov (United States)

Althouse, Benjamin M; Allem, Jon-Patrick; Childers, Matthew A; Dredze, Mark; Ayers, John W

2014-02-01

Associations between economic conditions and health are usually derived from cost-intensive surveys that are intermittently collected with nonspecific measures (i.e., self-rated health). This study identified how precise health concerns changed during the U.S. Great Recession analyzing Google search queries to identify the concern by the query content and their prevalence by the query volume. Excess health concerns were estimated during the Great Recession (December 2008 through 2011) by comparing the cumulative difference between observed and expected (based on linear projections from pre-existing trends) query volume for hundreds of individual terms. As performed in 2013, the 100 queries with the greatest excess were ranked and then clustered into themes based on query content. The specific queries with the greatest relative excess were stomach ulcer symptoms and headache symptoms, respectively, 228% (95% CI=35, 363) and 193% (95% CI=60, 275) greater than expected. Queries typically involved symptomology (i.e., gas symptoms) and diagnostics (i.e., heart monitor) naturally coalescing into themes. Among top themes, headache queries were 41% (95% CI=3, 148); hernia 37% (95% CI=16, 142); chest pain 35% (95% CI=6, 313); and arrhythmia 32% (95% CI=3, 149) greater than expected. Pain was common with back, gastric, joint, and tooth foci, with the latter 19% (95% CI=4, 46) higher. Among just the top 100, there were roughly 205 million excess health concern queries during the Great Recession. Google queries indicate that the Great Recession coincided with substantial increases in health concerns, hinting at how population health specifically changed during that time. © 2013 Published by American Journal of Preventive Medicine on behalf of American Journal of Preventive Medicine.

Nitrate Sources, Supply, and Phytoplankton Growth in the Great Australian Bight: An Eulerian-Lagrangian Modeling Approach

Science.gov (United States)

Cetina-Heredia, Paulina; van Sebille, Erik; Matear, Richard J.; Roughan, Moninya

2018-02-01

The Great Australian Bight (GAB), a coastal sea bordered by the Pacific, Southern, and Indian Oceans, sustains one of the largest fisheries in Australia but the geographical origin of nutrients that maintain its productivity is not fully known. We use 12 years of modeled data from a coupled hydrodynamic and biogeochemical model and an Eulerian-Lagrangian approach to quantify nitrate supply to the GAB and the region between the GAB and the Subantarctic Australian Front (GAB-SAFn), identify phytoplankton growth within the GAB, and ascertain the source of nitrate that fuels it. We find that nitrate concentrations have a decorrelation timescale of ˜60 days; since most of the water from surrounding oceans takes longer than 60 days to reach the GAB, 23% and 75% of nitrate used by phytoplankton to grow are sourced within the GAB and from the GAB-SAFn, respectively. Thus, most of the nitrate is recycled locally. Although nitrate concentrations and fluxes into the GAB are greater below 100 m than above, 79% of the nitrate fueling phytoplankton growth is sourced from above 100 m. Our findings suggest that topographical uplift and stratification erosion are key mechanisms delivering nutrients from below the nutricline into the euphotic zone and triggering large phytoplankton growth. We find annual and semiannual periodicities in phytoplankton growth, peaking in the austral spring and autumn when the mixed layer deepens leading to a subsurface maximum of phytoplankton growth. This study highlights the importance of examining phytoplankton growth at depth and the utility of Lagrangian approaches.

Comparative habitat use of sympatric Mexican spotted and great horned owls

Science.gov (United States)

Joseph L. Ganey; William M. Block; Jeffrey S. Jenness; Randolph A. Wilson

1997-01-01

To provide information on comparative habitat use, we studied radiotagged Mexican spotted owls (Strix occidentalis lucida: n = 13) and great horned owls (Bubo virginianus: n = 4) in northern Arizona. Home-range size (95% adaptive kernel estimate) did not differ significantly between species during either the breeding or nonbreeding...

Comparison of two different modelling tools

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Brix, Wiebke; Elmegaard, Brian

2009-01-01

In this paper a test case is solved using two different modelling tools, Engineering Equation Solver (EES) and WinDali, in order to compare the tools. The system of equations solved, is a static model of an evaporator used for refrigeration. The evaporator consists of two parallel channels......, and it is investigated how a non-uniform airflow influences the refrigerant mass flow rate distribution and the total cooling capacity of the heat exchanger. It is shown that the cooling capacity decreases significantly with increasing maldistribution of the airflow. Comparing the two simulation tools it is found...

The Great War and German Memory

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Leese, Peter

2012-01-01

Review essay on Jason Crouthamel, The Great War and German Memory. Society, Politics and Psychological Trauma, 1914-18 (2009) and Anton Kaes, Shell Shock Cinema: Weimar Culture and the Wounds of War (2009)......Review essay on Jason Crouthamel, The Great War and German Memory. Society, Politics and Psychological Trauma, 1914-18 (2009) and Anton Kaes, Shell Shock Cinema: Weimar Culture and the Wounds of War (2009)...

The genetically significant dose from diagnostic radiology in Great Britain in 1977

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Darby, S.C.; Kendall, G.M.; Rae, S.; Wall, B.F.

1980-09-01

This report is the third in a series concerned with the annual genetically significant dose to the population of Great Britain from diagnostic radiology. It combines information from a frequency survey of diagnostic radiological examinations carried out in Great Britain in 1977 and estimates of gonadal doses for different examination types, together with population and child expectancy data. The annual genetically significant dose from diagnostic radiology carried out in Great Britain in 1977, is estimated to 118 μGy (11.8 millirad) of which 113 μGy (11.3 millirad) is contributed by diagnostic radiology carried out in National Health Service hospitals. There has been a sharp fall in the contribution from obstetric examinations since 1957 when the last national survey was carried out. The contribution from most other examination types is broadly similar and there is little evidence of a change in the overall level of genetically significant dose. This is in spite of an increase in the frequency of radiological examinations per thousand of the population of about 50 per cent. No significant differences were found as between England, Scotland and Wales. The British figure compares favourably with the levels of GSD reported from other countries with developed radiological services. (author)

Differences in demographic traits of four butterflyfish species between two reefs of the Great Barrier Reef separated by 1,200 km

KAUST Repository

Berumen, Michael L.

2011-11-16

Many species demonstrate variation in life history attributes in response to gradients in environmental conditions. For fishes, major drivers of life history variation are changes in temperature and food availability. This study examined large-scale variation in the demography of four species of butterflyfishes (Chaetodon citrinellus, Chaetodon lunulatus, Chaetodon melannotus, and Chaetodon trifascialis) between two locations on Australia\\'s Great Barrier Reef (Lizard Island and One Tree Island, separated by approximately 1,200 km). Variation in age-based demographic parameters was assessed using the re-parameterised von Bertalanffy growth function. All species displayed measurable differences in body size between locations, with individuals achieving a larger adult size at the higher latitude site (One Tree Island) for three of the four species examined. Resources and abundances of the study species were also measured, revealing some significant differences between locations. For example, for C. trifascialis, there was no difference in its preferred resource or in abundance between locations, yet it achieved a larger body size at the higher latitude location, suggesting a response to temperature. For some species, resources and abundances did vary between locations, limiting the ability to distinguish between a demographic response to temperature as opposed to a response to food or competition. Future studies of life histories and demographics at large spatial scales will need to consider the potentially confounding roles of temperature, resource usage and availability, and abundance/competition to disentangle the effects of these environmental variables. © 2011 Springer-Verlag.

Comparison of MANET Routing Protocols in Different Traffic and Mobility Models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. Baraković

2010-06-01

Full Text Available Routing protocol election in MANET (Mobile Ad Hoc Network is a great challenge, because of its frequent topology changes and routing overhead. This paper compares performances of three routing protocols: Destination Sequenced Distance Vector (DSDV, Ad Hoc Ondemand Distance Vector (AODV and Dynamic Source Routing (DSR, based on results analysis obtained using simulations with different load and mobility scenarios performed with Network Simulator version 2 (NS-2. In low load and low mobility scenarios routing protocols perform in a similar manner. However, with mobility and load increasing DSR outperforms AODV and DSDV protocols.

Meiosis: An Overview of Key Differences from Mitosis

Science.gov (United States)

Ohkura, Hiroyuki

2015-01-01

Meiosis is the specialized cell division that generates gametes. In contrast to mitosis, molecular mechanisms and regulation of meiosis are much less understood. Meiosis shares mechanisms and regulation with mitosis in many aspects, but also has critical differences from mitosis. This review highlights these differences between meiosis and mitosis. Recent studies using various model systems revealed differences in a surprisingly wide range of aspects, including cell-cycle regulation, recombination, postrecombination events, spindle assembly, chromosome–spindle interaction, and chromosome segregation. Although a great degree of diversity can be found among organisms, meiosis-specific processes, and regulation are generally conserved. PMID:25605710

Climate Change Impacts on Nutrient Losses of Two Watersheds in the Great Lakes Region

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lili Wang

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Non-point sources (NPS of agricultural chemical pollution are one major reason for the water quality degradation of the Great Lakes, which impacts millions of residents in the states and provinces that are bordering them. Future climate change will further impact water quality in both direct and indirect ways by influencing the hydrological cycle and processes of nutrient transportation and transformation, but studies are still rare. This study focuses on quantifying the impacts of climate change on nutrient (Nitrogen and Phosphorus losses from the two small watersheds (Walworth watershed and Green Lake watershed within the Great Lakes region. Analysis focused on changes through this century (comparing the nutrient loss prediction of three future periods from 2015 to 2099 with 30 years for each period against the historical nutrient estimation data from 1985 to 2008. The effects on total phosphorus and nitrate-nitrogen losses due to changes in precipitation quantity, intensity, and frequency, as well as air temperature, are evaluated for the two small watersheds, under three special report emission scenarios (SRES A2, A1B, B1. The newly developed Water Erosion Prediction Project-Water Quality (WEPP-WQ model is utilized to simulate nutrient losses with downscaled and bias corrected future climate forcing from two General Circulation Models (GFDL, HadCM3. For each watershed, the observed runoff and nutrient loads are used to calibrate and validate the model before the application of the WEPP-WQ model to examine potential impacts from future climate change. Total phosphorus loss is projected to increase by 28% to 89% for the Green Lake watershed and 25% to 108% for the Walworth watershed mainly due to the combined effects of increase of precipitation quantity, extreme storm events in intensity and frequency, and air temperature. Nitrate-nitrogen losses are projected to increase by 1.1% to 38% for the Green Lake watershed and 8% to 95% for the

Bayesian model averaging in vector autoregressive processes with an investigation of stability of the US great ratios and risk of a liquidity trap in the USA, UK and Japan

NARCIS (Netherlands)

R.W. Strachan (Rodney); H.K. van Dijk (Herman)

2007-01-01

textabstractA Bayesian model averaging procedure is presented within the class of vector autoregressive (VAR) processes and applied to two empirical issues. First, stability of the "Great Ratios" in U.S. macro-economic time series is investigated, together with the presence and e¤ects of permanent

Modelling strategies to break transmission of lymphatic filariasis--aggregation, adherence and vector competence greatly alter elimination.

Science.gov (United States)

Irvine, M A; Reimer, L J; Njenga, S M; Gunawardena, S; Kelly-Hope, L; Bockarie, M; Hollingsworth, T D

2015-10-22

With ambitious targets to eliminate lymphatic filariasis over the coming years, there is a need to identify optimal strategies to achieve them in areas with different baseline prevalence and stages of control. Modelling can assist in identifying what data should be collected and what strategies are best for which scenarios. We develop a new individual-based, stochastic mathematical model of the transmission of lymphatic filariasis. We validate the model by fitting to a first time point and predicting future timepoints from surveillance data in Kenya and Sri Lanka, which have different vectors and different stages of the control programme. We then simulate different treatment scenarios in low, medium and high transmission settings, comparing once yearly mass drug administration (MDA) with more frequent MDA and higher coverage. We investigate the potential impact that vector control, systematic non-compliance and different levels of aggregation have on the dynamics of transmission and control. In all settings, increasing coverage from 65 to 80 % has a similar impact on control to treating twice a year at 65 % coverage, for fewer drug treatments being distributed. Vector control has a large impact, even at moderate levels. The extent of aggregation of parasite loads amongst a small portion of the population, which has been estimated to be highly variable in different settings, can undermine the success of a programme, particularly if high risk sub-communities are not accessing interventions. Even moderate levels of vector control have a large impact both on the reduction in prevalence and the maintenance of gains made during MDA, even when parasite loads are highly aggregated, and use of vector control is at moderate levels. For the same prevalence, differences in aggregation and adherence can result in very different dynamics. The novel analysis of a small amount of surveillance data and resulting simulations highlight the need for more individual level data to be

Recovery act. Characterizing structural controls of EGS-candidate and conventional geothermal reservoirs in the Great Basin. Developing successful exploration strategies in extended terranes

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Faulds, James [Univ. of Nevada, Reno, NV (United States)

2015-06-25

We conducted a comprehensive analysis of the structural controls of geothermal systems within the Great Basin and adjacent regions. Our main objectives were to: 1) Produce a catalogue of favorable structural environments and models for geothermal systems. 2) Improve site-specific targeting of geothermal resources through detailed studies of representative sites, which included innovative techniques of slip tendency analysis of faults and 3D modeling. 3) Compare and contrast the structural controls and models in different tectonic settings. 4) Synthesize data and develop methodologies for enhancement of exploration strategies for conventional and EGS systems, reduction in the risk of drilling non-productive wells, and selecting the best EGS sites.

Wind Regimes in Complex Terrain of the Great Valley of Eastern Tennessee

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Birdwell, Kevin R. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

2011-05-01

This research was designed to provide an understanding of physical wind mechanisms within the complex terrain of the Great Valley of Eastern Tennessee to assess the impacts of regional air flow with regard to synoptic and mesoscale weather changes, wind direction shifts, and air quality. Meteorological data from 2008 2009 were analyzed from 13 meteorological sites along with associated upper level data. Up to 15 ancillary sites were used for reference. Two-step complete linkage and K-means cluster analyses, synoptic weather studies, and ambient meteorological comparisons were performed to generate hourly wind classifications. These wind regimes revealed seasonal variations of underlying physical wind mechanisms (forced channeled, vertically coupled, pressure-driven, and thermally-driven winds). Synoptic and ambient meteorological analysis (mixing depth, pressure gradient, pressure gradient ratio, atmospheric and surface stability) suggested up to 93% accuracy for the clustered results. Probabilistic prediction schemes of wind flow and wind class change were developed through characterization of flow change data and wind class succession. Data analysis revealed that wind flow in the Great Valley was dominated by forced channeled winds (45 67%) and vertically coupled flow (22 38%). Down-valley pressure-driven and thermally-driven winds also played significant roles (0 17% and 2 20%, respectively), usually accompanied by convergent wind patterns (15 20%) and large wind direction shifts, especially in the Central/Upper Great Valley. The behavior of most wind regimes was associated with detectable pressure differences between the Lower and Upper Great Valley. Mixing depth and synoptic pressure gradients were significant contributors to wind pattern behavior. Up to 15 wind classes and 10 sub-classes were identified in the Central Great Valley with 67 joined classes for the Great Valley at-large. Two-thirds of Great Valley at-large flow was defined by 12 classes. Winds

Modelling Farm Animal Welfare

Science.gov (United States)

Collins, Lisa M.; Part, Chérie E.

2013-01-01

Simple Summary In this review paper we discuss the different modeling techniques that have been used in animal welfare research to date. We look at what questions they have been used to answer, the advantages and pitfalls of the methods, and how future research can best use these approaches to answer some of the most important upcoming questions in farm animal welfare. Abstract The use of models in the life sciences has greatly expanded in scope and advanced in technique in recent decades. However, the range, type and complexity of models used in farm animal welfare is comparatively poor, despite the great scope for use of modeling in this field of research. In this paper, we review the different modeling approaches used in farm animal welfare science to date, discussing the types of questions they have been used to answer, the merits and problems associated with the method, and possible future applications of each technique. We find that the most frequently published types of model used in farm animal welfare are conceptual and assessment models; two types of model that are frequently (though not exclusively) based on expert opinion. Simulation, optimization, scenario, and systems modeling approaches are rarer in animal welfare, despite being commonly used in other related fields. Finally, common issues such as a lack of quantitative data to parameterize models, and model selection and validation are discussed throughout the review, with possible solutions and alternative approaches suggested. PMID:26487411

Accounting for inter-annual and seasonal variability in regionalization of hydrologic response in the Great Lakes basin

Science.gov (United States)

Kult, J. M.; Fry, L. M.; Gronewold, A. D.

2012-12-01

Methods for predicting streamflow in areas with limited or nonexistent measures of hydrologic response typically invoke the concept of regionalization, whereby knowledge pertaining to gauged catchments is transferred to ungauged catchments. In this study, we identify watershed physical characteristics acting as primary drivers of hydrologic response throughout the US portion of the Great Lakes basin. Relationships between watershed physical characteristics and hydrologic response are generated from 166 catchments spanning a variety of climate, soil, land cover, and land form regimes through regression tree analysis, leading to a grouping of watersheds exhibiting similar hydrologic response characteristics. These groupings are then used to predict response in ungauged watersheds in an uncertainty framework. Results from this method are assessed alongside one historical regionalization approach which, while simple, has served as a cornerstone of Great Lakes regional hydrologic research for several decades. Our approach expands upon previous research by considering multiple temporal characterizations of hydrologic response. Due to the substantial inter-annual and seasonal variability in hydrologic response observed over the Great Lakes basin, results from the regression tree analysis differ considerably depending on the level of temporal aggregation used to define the response. Specifically, higher levels of temporal aggregation for the response metric (for example, indices derived from long-term means of climate and streamflow observations) lead to improved watershed groupings with lower within-group variance. However, this perceived improvement in model skill occurs at the cost of understated uncertainty when applying the regression to time series simulations or as a basis for model calibration. In such cases, our results indicate that predictions based on long-term characterizations of hydrologic response can produce misleading conclusions when applied at shorter

Aerosol measurements at the Southern Great Plains Site: Design and surface installation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Leifer, R.; Knuth, R.H.; Guggenheim, S.F.; Albert, B. [Department of Energy, New York, NY (United States)

1996-04-01

To impropve the predictive capabilities of the Atmospheric Radiation Measurements (ARM) program radiation models, measurements of awserosol size distributions, condensation particle concentrations, aerosol scattering coefficients at a number of wavelenghts, and the aerosol absorption coefficients are needed at the Southern Great Plains (SGP) site. Alos, continuous measurements of ozone concnetrations are needed for model validation. The environmental Measuremenr Laboratory (EMK) has the responsibility to establish the surface aerosol measurements program at the SGP site. EML has designed a special sampling manifold.

3D City Models with Different Temporal Characteristica

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bodum, Lars

2005-01-01

traditional static city models and those models that are built for realtime applications. The difference between the city models applies both to the spatial modelling and also when using the phenomenon time in the models. If the city models are used in visualizations without any variation in time or when......-built dynamic or a model suitable for visualization in realtime, it is required that modelling is done with level-of-detail and simplification of both the aesthetics and the geometry. If a temporal characteristic is combined with a visual characteristic, the situation can easily be seen as a t/v matrix where t...... is the temporal characteristic or representation and v is the visual characteristic or representation....

Molecular characterization of the Great Lakes viral hemorrhagic septicemia virus (VHSV isolate from USA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vakharia Vikram N

2009-10-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Viral hemorrhagic septicemia virus (VHSV is a highly contagious viral disease of fresh and saltwater fish worldwide. VHSV caused several large scale fish kills in the Great Lakes area and has been found in 28 different host species. The emergence of VHS in the Great Lakes began with the isolation of VHSV from a diseased muskellunge (Esox masquinongy caught from Lake St. Clair in 2003. VHSV is a member of the genus Novirhabdovirus, within the family Rhabdoviridae. It has a linear single-stranded, negative-sense RNA genome of approximately 11 kbp, with six genes. VHSV replicates in the cytoplasm and produces six monocistronic mRNAs. The gene order of VHSV is 3'-N-P-M-G-NV-L-5'. This study describes molecular characterization of the Great Lakes VHSV strain (MI03GL, and its phylogenetic relationships with selected European and North American isolates. Results The complete genomic sequences of VHSV-MI03GL strain was determined from cloned cDNA of six overlapping fragments, obtained by RT-PCR amplification of genomic RNA. The complete genome sequence of MI03GL comprises 11,184 nucleotides (GenBank GQ385941 with the gene order of 3'-N-P-M-G-NV-L-5'. These genes are separated by conserved gene junctions, with di-nucleotide gene spacers. The first 4 nucleotides at the termini of the VHSV genome are complementary and identical to other novirhadoviruses genomic termini. Sequence homology and phylogenetic analysis show that the Great Lakes virus is closely related to the Japanese strains JF00Ehi1 (96% and KRRV9822 (95%. Among other novirhabdoviruses, VHSV shares highest sequence homology (62% with snakehead rhabdovirus. Conclusion Phylogenetic tree obtained by comparing 48 glycoprotein gene sequences of different VHSV strains demonstrate that the Great Lakes VHSV is closely related to the North American and Japanese genotype IVa, but forms a distinct genotype IVb, which is clearly different from the three European genotypes. Molecular

A Method for Application of Classification Tree Models to Map Aquatic Vegetation Using Remotely Sensed Images from Different Sensors and Dates

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ying Cai

2012-09-01

Full Text Available In previous attempts to identify aquatic vegetation from remotely-sensed images using classification trees (CT, the images used to apply CT models to different times or locations necessarily originated from the same satellite sensor as that from which the original images used in model development came, greatly limiting the application of CT. We have developed an effective normalization method to improve the robustness of CT models when applied to images originating from different sensors and dates. A total of 965 ground-truth samples of aquatic vegetation types were obtained in 2009 and 2010 in Taihu Lake, China. Using relevant spectral indices (SI as classifiers, we manually developed a stable CT model structure and then applied a standard CT algorithm to obtain quantitative (optimal thresholds from 2009 ground-truth data and images from Landsat7-ETM+, HJ-1B-CCD, Landsat5-TM and ALOS-AVNIR-2 sensors. Optimal CT thresholds produced average classification accuracies of 78.1%, 84.7% and 74.0% for emergent vegetation, floating-leaf vegetation and submerged vegetation, respectively. However, the optimal CT thresholds for different sensor images differed from each other, with an average relative variation (RV of 6.40%. We developed and evaluated three new approaches to normalizing the images. The best-performing method (Method of 0.1% index scaling normalized the SI images using tailored percentages of extreme pixel values. Using the images normalized by Method of 0.1% index scaling, CT models for a particular sensor in which thresholds were replaced by those from the models developed for images originating from other sensors provided average classification accuracies of 76.0%, 82.8% and 68.9% for emergent vegetation, floating-leaf vegetation and submerged vegetation, respectively. Applying the CT models developed for normalized 2009 images to 2010 images resulted in high classification (78.0%–93.3% and overall (92.0%–93.1% accuracies. Our

Great ape genetic diversity and population history

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Prado-Martinez, Javier; Sudmant, Peter H; Kidd, Jeffrey M

2013-01-01

Most great ape genetic variation remains uncharacterized; however, its study is critical for understanding population history, recombination, selection and susceptibility to disease. Here we sequence to high coverage a total of 79 wild- and captive-born individuals representing all six great ape...

Multilevel Empirical Bayes Modeling for Improved Estimation of Toxicant Formulations to Suppress Parasitic Sea Lamprey in the Upper Great Lakes

Science.gov (United States)

Hatfield, L.A.; Gutreuter, S.; Boogaard, M.A.; Carlin, B.P.

2011-01-01

Estimation of extreme quantal-response statistics, such as the concentration required to kill 99.9% of test subjects (LC99.9), remains a challenge in the presence of multiple covariates and complex study designs. Accurate and precise estimates of the LC99.9 for mixtures of toxicants are critical to ongoing control of a parasitic invasive species, the sea lamprey, in the Laurentian Great Lakes of North America. The toxicity of those chemicals is affected by local and temporal variations in water chemistry, which must be incorporated into the modeling. We develop multilevel empirical Bayes models for data from multiple laboratory studies. Our approach yields more accurate and precise estimation of the LC99.9 compared to alternative models considered. This study demonstrates that properly incorporating hierarchical structure in laboratory data yields better estimates of LC99.9 stream treatment values that are critical to larvae control in the field. In addition, out-of-sample prediction of the results of in situ tests reveals the presence of a latent seasonal effect not manifest in the laboratory studies, suggesting avenues for future study and illustrating the importance of dual consideration of both experimental and observational data. ?? 2011, The International Biometric Society.

Towards a Definition of Role-related Concepts for Business Modeling

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Meertens, Lucas Onno; Iacob, Maria Eugenia; Nieuwenhuis, Lambertus Johannes Maria

2010-01-01

Abstract—While several role-related concepts play an important role in business modeling, their definitions, relations, and use differ greatly between languages, papers, and reports. Due to this, the knowledge captured by models is not transferred correctly, and models are incomparable. In this

Forest Growth and Yield Models Viewed From a Different Perspective

Science.gov (United States)

Jeffery C. Goelz

2002-01-01

Typically, when different forms of growth and yield models are considered, they are grouped into convenient discrete classes. As a heuristic device, I chose to use a contrasting perspective, that all growth and yield models are diameter distribution models that merely differ in regard to which diameter distribution is employed and how the distribution is projected to...

GREAT: a web portal for Genome Regulatory Architecture Tools.

Science.gov (United States)

Bouyioukos, Costas; Bucchini, François; Elati, Mohamed; Képès, François

2016-07-08

GREAT (Genome REgulatory Architecture Tools) is a novel web portal for tools designed to generate user-friendly and biologically useful analysis of genome architecture and regulation. The online tools of GREAT are freely accessible and compatible with essentially any operating system which runs a modern browser. GREAT is based on the analysis of genome layout -defined as the respective positioning of co-functional genes- and its relation with chromosome architecture and gene expression. GREAT tools allow users to systematically detect regular patterns along co-functional genomic features in an automatic way consisting of three individual steps and respective interactive visualizations. In addition to the complete analysis of regularities, GREAT tools enable the use of periodicity and position information for improving the prediction of transcription factor binding sites using a multi-view machine learning approach. The outcome of this integrative approach features a multivariate analysis of the interplay between the location of a gene and its regulatory sequence. GREAT results are plotted in web interactive graphs and are available for download either as individual plots, self-contained interactive pages or as machine readable tables for downstream analysis. The GREAT portal can be reached at the following URL https://absynth.issb.genopole.fr/GREAT and each individual GREAT tool is available for downloading. © The Author(s) 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Nucleic Acids Research.

The Creation of Myth: Starting the First "Great Debate" in International Relations Theory

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tatiana Aleksandrovna Alekseeva

2015-01-01

Full Text Available From one textbook to another wanders the story about three (sometimes - four Great debates, which formed the canonical history of the theory of international relations. In reality everything was much more complicated, and the theoretical richness much wider than many times repeated antinomic pairs - realism vs. idealism, traditionalism vs. modernism, rationalism vs. reflectivism The author regards the discussions between different trends of the political thought in the interwar period, which were later called the First "Great Debates", which, according to the author's view were pre-paradigmal.

Childhood leukaemia in Great Britain and fallout from nuclear weapons testing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Haynes, R.; Bentham, G.

1995-01-01

The possible effects of radiation from fallout on childhood leukaemia mortality from 1950 to 1987 and registrations from 1963 to 1987 were assessed using a division of Great Britain into regions with higher rainfall and a consequently higher fallout radiation dose in the 1960s and regions with lower rainfall and a lower radiation dose. Childhood leukaemia mortality rates declined and registration rates increased throughout the period. For ages 0-14 years, the differences between rates in wet regions and dry regions were small and appeared unrelated to periods of low, medium and high radiation exposure based on dose equivalent to the red bone marrow after birth. For the 0-4 years age group the highest ratios of leukaemia death rates and registration rates in the wet compared with the dry part of Great Britain occurred in the period of highest radiation exposure after birth. The death rate ratio was significantly raised in the period of high exposure compared with the surrounding medium exposure periods, but the difference in registration rate ratios between the high exposure period and the medium exposure period following was not statistically significant. The results might be explained by survival and registration changes, or chance in the case of registrations, but do not exclude the possibility that low doses of radiation from fallout were responsible for an increased risk of leukaemia in young children in Great Britain. (author)

Nonword Reading: Comparing Dual-Route Cascaded and Connectionist Dual-Process Models with Human Data

Science.gov (United States)

Pritchard, Stephen C.; Coltheart, Max; Palethorpe, Sallyanne; Castles, Anne

2012-01-01

Two prominent dual-route computational models of reading aloud are the dual-route cascaded (DRC) model, and the connectionist dual-process plus (CDP+) model. While sharing similarly designed lexical routes, the two models differ greatly in their respective nonlexical route architecture, such that they often differ on nonword pronunciation. Neither…

Financial Strain and Mental Health Among Older Adults During the Great Recession.

Science.gov (United States)

Wilkinson, Lindsay R

2016-07-01

The economic recession has garnered the interest of many scholars, with much attention being drawn to how the recession has affected labor force participation, household wealth, and even retirement decisions. Certainly, the Great Recession has influenced the financial well-being of older adults, but has it had discernible effects on mental health? This study draws on 5,366 respondents from the Health and Retirement Study (2006-2010) to examine objective and subjective measures of financial well-being in the period surrounding the Great Recession. Guided by cumulative inequality theory, this research investigates whether the economic downturn contributed to worsening anxiety and depressive symptoms over a 4-year period. Results from linear fixed effects models reveal that decreases in objective financial resources were associated with increased financial strain during the Great Recession. Unlike the objective indicators, however, financial strain was a strong and robust predictor of worsening mental health between 2006 and 2010. Building on prior research, this study elucidates the factors that shape financial strain and provides evidence that the Great Recession not only affected the financial well-being of older adults but also had adverse effects on mental health. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Mechanisms driving recruitment variability in fish: comparisons between the Laurentian Great Lakes and marine systems

Science.gov (United States)

Pritt, Jeremy J.; Roseman, Edward F.; O'Brien, Timothy P.

2014-01-01

In his seminal work, Hjort (in Fluctuations in the great fisheries of Northern Europe. Conseil Parmanent International Pour L'Exploration De La Mar. Rapports et Proces-Verbaux, 20: 1–228, 1914) observed that fish population levels fluctuated widely, year-class strength was set early in life, and egg production by adults could not alone explain variability in year-class strength. These observations laid the foundation for hypotheses on mechanisms driving recruitment variability in marine systems. More recently, researchers have sought to explain year-class strength of important fish in the Laurentian Great Lakes and some of the hypotheses developed for marine fisheries have been transferred to Great Lakes fish. We conducted a literature review to determine the applicability of marine recruitment hypotheses to Great Lakes fish. We found that temperature, interspecific interactions, and spawner effects (abundance, age, and condition of adults) were the most important factors in explaining recruitment variability in Great Lakes fish, whereas relatively fewer studies identified bottom-up trophodynamic factors or hydrodynamic factors as important. Next, we compared recruitment between Great Lakes and Baltic Sea fish populations and found no statistical difference in factors driving recruitment between the two systems, indicating that recruitment hypotheses may often be transferable between Great Lakes and marine systems. Many recruitment hypotheses developed for marine fish have yet to be applied to Great Lakes fish. We suggest that future research on recruitment in the Great Lakes should focus on forecasting the effects of climate change and invasive species. Further, because the Great Lakes are smaller and more enclosed than marine systems, and have abundant fishery-independent data, they are excellent candidates for future hypothesis testing on recruitment in fish.

Soft sensor modelling by time difference, recursive partial least squares and adaptive model updating

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fu, Y; Xu, O; Yang, W; Zhou, L; Wang, J

2017-01-01

To investigate time-variant and nonlinear characteristics in industrial processes, a soft sensor modelling method based on time difference, moving-window recursive partial least square (PLS) and adaptive model updating is proposed. In this method, time difference values of input and output variables are used as training samples to construct the model, which can reduce the effects of the nonlinear characteristic on modelling accuracy and retain the advantages of recursive PLS algorithm. To solve the high updating frequency of the model, a confidence value is introduced, which can be updated adaptively according to the results of the model performance assessment. Once the confidence value is updated, the model can be updated. The proposed method has been used to predict the 4-carboxy-benz-aldehyde (CBA) content in the purified terephthalic acid (PTA) oxidation reaction process. The results show that the proposed soft sensor modelling method can reduce computation effectively, improve prediction accuracy by making use of process information and reflect the process characteristics accurately. (paper)

A revised catalog of CfA galaxy groups in the Virgo/Great Attractor flow field

Science.gov (United States)

Nolthenius, Richard

1993-01-01

A new identification of groups and clusters in the CfAl Catalog of Huchra, et al. (1983) is presented, using a percolation algorithm to identify density enhancements. The procedure differs from that of the original Geller and Huchra (1983; GH) catalog in several important respects; galaxy distances are calculated from the Virgo-Great Attractor flow model of Faber and Burnstein (1988), the adopted distance linkage criteria is only approx. 1/4 as large as in the Geller and Huchra catalog, the sky link relation is taken from Nolthenius and White (1987), correction for interstellar extinction is included, and 'by-hand' adjustments to group memberships are made in the complex regions of Virgo/Coma I/Ursa Major and Coma/A1367 (to allow for varying group velocity dispersions and to trim unphysical 'spider arms'). Since flow model distances are poorly determined in these same regions, available distances from the IR Tully-Fisher planetary nebula luminosity function and surface brightness resolution methods are adopted if possible.

Organohalogen contaminants and Blood plasma clinical-chemical parameters in three colonies of North Atlantic Great skua (Stercorarius skua)

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sonne, Christian; Rigét, Frank F; Leat, Eliza H K

2013-01-01

to compare Great skua BCCPs in different exposure scenarios. Persistent organic pollutants (organochlorines: PCB, DDT, chlordanes, HCB, HCH, mirex and brominated flame retardants: PBDEs) and nineteen BCCPs were analysed in 114 adult Great skuas sampled during summer 2009 in North Atlantic colonies...

European health inequality through the 'Great Recession': social policy matters.

Science.gov (United States)

van der Wel, Kjetil A; Saltkjel, Therese; Chen, Wen-Hao; Dahl, Espen; Halvorsen, Knut

2018-05-01

This paper investigates the association between the Great Recession and educational inequalities in self-rated general health in 25 European countries. We investigate four different indicators related to economic recession: GDP; unemployment; austerity and a 'crisis' indicator signifying severe simultaneous drops in GDP and welfare generosity. We also assess the extent to which health inequality changes can be attributed to changes in the economic conditions and social capital in the European populations. The paper uses data from the European Social Survey (2002-2014). The analyses include both cross-sectional and lagged associations using multilevel linear regression models with country fixed effects. This approach allows us to identify health inequality changes net of all time-invariant differences between countries. GDP drops and increasing unemployment were associated with decreasing health inequalities. Austerity, however, was related to increasing health inequalities, an association that grew stronger with time. The strongest increase in health inequality was found for the more robust 'crisis' indicator. Changes in trust, social relationships and in the experience of economic hardship of the populations accounted for much of the increase in health inequality. The paper concludes that social policy has an important role in the development of health inequalities, particularly during times of economic crisis. © 2018 The Authors. Sociology of Health & Illness published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Foundation for SHIL.

Physical behavior of PCBs in the Great Lakes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McKay, D.; Eisenreich, S.J.; Patterson, S.; Simmons, M.S.

1983-01-01

This book presents a review of all aspects of the physical behavior of one contaminant (PCBs) in one aquatic environment (Great Lakes). This book not only treats this topic extensively, but also serves as a model for treatment of other contaminants in other aquatic environments. This book focuses on the physical rather than biological aspects of PCBs. This focus does not imply a lack of concern for the biosphere or for the effects or toxicology of PCBs; instead, it represents an attempt to tackle a smaller problem of manageable proportions. The environmental fate of PCBs is largely controlled by physical processes, with biodegradation of lower chlorine congeners as the outstanding exception

A numerical model investigation of the impacts of Hurricane Sandy on water level variability in Great South Bay, New York

Science.gov (United States)

Bennett, Vanessa C. C.; Mulligan, Ryan P.; Hapke, Cheryl J.

2018-01-01

Hurricane Sandy was a large and intense storm with high winds that caused total water levels from combined tides and storm surge to reach 4.0 m in the Atlantic Ocean and 2.5 m in Great South Bay (GSB), a back-barrier bay between Fire Island and Long Island, New York. In this study the impact of the hurricane winds and waves are examined in order to understand the flow of ocean water into the back-barrier bay and water level variations within the bay. To accomplish this goal, a high resolution hurricane wind field is used to drive the coupled Delft3D-SWAN hydrodynamic and wave models over a series of grids with the finest resolution in GSB. The processes that control water levels in the back-barrier bay are investigated by comparing the results of four cases that include: (i) tides only; (ii) tides, winds and waves with no overwash over Fire Island allowed; (iii) tides, winds, waves and limited overwash at the east end of the island; (iv) tides, winds, waves and extensive overwash along the island. The results indicate that strong local wind-driven storm surge along the bay axis had the largest influence on the total water level fluctuations during the hurricane. However, the simulations allowing for overwash have higher correlation with water level observations in GSB and suggest that island overwash provided a significant contribution of ocean water to eastern GSB during the storm. The computations indicate that overwash of 7500–10,000 m3s−1 was approximately the same as the inflow from the ocean through the major existing inlet. Overall, the model results indicate the complex variability in total water levels driven by tides, ocean storm surge, surge from local winds, and overwash that had a significant impact on the circulation in Great South Bay during Hurricane Sandy.

Detecting Difference between Process Models Based on the Refined Process Structure Tree

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jing Fan

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The development of mobile workflow management systems (mWfMS leads to large number of business process models. In the meantime, the location restriction embedded in mWfMS may result in different process models for a single business process. In order to help users quickly locate the difference and rebuild the process model, detecting the difference between different process models is needed. Existing detection methods either provide a dissimilarity value to represent the difference or use predefined difference template to generate the result, which cannot reflect the entire composition of the difference. Hence, in this paper, we present a new approach to solve this problem. Firstly, we parse the process models to their corresponding refined process structure trees (PSTs, that is, decomposing a process model into a hierarchy of subprocess models. Then we design a method to convert the PST to its corresponding task based process structure tree (TPST. As a consequence, the problem of detecting difference between two process models is transformed to detect difference between their corresponding TPSTs. Finally, we obtain the difference between two TPSTs based on the divide and conquer strategy, where the difference is described by an edit script and we make the cost of the edit script close to minimum. The extensive experimental evaluation shows that our method can meet the real requirements in terms of precision and efficiency.

Critical velocity and anaerobic paddling capacity determined by different mathematical models and number of predictive trials in canoe slalom.

Science.gov (United States)

Messias, Leonardo H D; Ferrari, Homero G; Reis, Ivan G M; Scariot, Pedro P M; Manchado-Gobatto, Fúlvia B

2015-03-01

The purpose of this study was to analyze if different combinations of trials as well as mathematical models can modify the aerobic and anaerobic estimates from critical velocity protocol applied in canoe slalom. Fourteen male elite slalom kayakers from Brazilian canoe slalom team (K1) were evaluated. Athletes were submitted to four predictive trials of 150, 300, 450 and 600 meters in a lake and the time to complete each trial was recorded. Critical velocity (CV-aerobic parameter) and anaerobic paddling capacity (APC-anaerobic parameter) were obtained by three mathematical models (Linear1=distance-time; Linear 2=velocity-1/time and Non-Linear = time-velocity). Linear 1 was chosen for comparison of predictive trials combinations. Standard combination (SC) was considered as the four trials (150, 300, 450 and 600 m). High fits of regression were obtained from all mathematical models (range - R² = 0.96-1.00). Repeated measures ANOVA pointed out differences of all mathematical models for CV (p = 0.006) and APC (p = 0.016) as well as R² (p = 0.033). Estimates obtained from the first (1) and the fourth (4) predictive trials (150 m = lowest; and 600 m = highest, respectively) were similar and highly correlated (r=0.98 for CV and r = 0.96 for APC) with the SC. In summary, methodological aspects must be considered in critical velocity application in canoe slalom, since different combinations of trials as well as mathematical models resulted in different aerobic and anaerobic estimates. Key pointsGreat attention must be given for methodological concerns regarding critical velocity protocol applied on canoe slalom, since different estimates were obtained depending on the mathematical model and the predictive trials used.Linear 1 showed the best fits of regression. Furthermore, to the best of our knowledge and considering practical applications, this model is the easiest one to calculate the estimates from critical velocity protocol. Considering this, the abyss between science

Comparison of four different models of vortex generators

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Fernandez, U.; Réthoré, Pierre-Elouan; Sørensen, Niels N.

2012-01-01

A detailed comparison between four different models of vortex generators is presented in this paper. To that end, a single Vortex Generator on a flat plate test case has been designed and solved by the following models. The first one is the traditional mesh-resolved VG and the second one, called...

Imaging of pediatric great vessel stents: Computed tomography or magnetic resonance imaging?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A M den Harder

Full Text Available Complications might occur after great vessel stent implantation in children. Therefore follow-up using imaging is warranted.To determine the optimal imaging modality for the assessment of stents used to treat great vessel obstructions in children.Five different large vessel stents were evaluated in an in-vitro setting. All stents were expanded to the maximal vendor recommended diameter (20mm; n = 4 or 10mm; n = 1, placed in an anthropomorphic chest phantom and imaged with a 256-slice CT-scanner. MRI images were acquired at 1.5T using a multi-slice T2-weighted turbo spin echo, an RF-spoiled three-dimensional T1-weighted Fast Field Echo and a balanced turbo field echo 3D sequence. Two blinded observers assessed stent lumen visibility (measured diameter/true diameter *100% in the center and at the outlets of the stent. Reproducibility of diameter measurements was evaluated using the intraclass correlation coefficient for reliability and 95% limits of agreement for agreement analysis.Median stent lumen visibility was 88 (IQR 86-90% with CT for all stents at both the center and outlets. With MRI, the T2-weighted turbo spin echo sequence was preferred which resulted in 82 (78-84% stent lumen visibility. Interobserver reliability and agreement was good for both CT (ICC 0.997, mean difference -0.51 [-1.07-0.05] mm and MRI measurements (ICC 0.951, mean difference -0.05 [-2.52 --2.41] mm.Good in-stent lumen visibility was achievable in this in-vitro study with both CT and MRI in different great vessel stents. Overall reliability was good with clinical acceptable limits of agreement for both CT and MRI. However, common conditions such as in-stent stenosis and associated aneurysms were not tested in this in-vitro study, limiting the value of the in-vitro study.

Imaging of pediatric great vessel stents: Computed tomography or magnetic resonance imaging?

Science.gov (United States)

den Harder, A M; Suchá, D; van Hamersvelt, R W; Budde, R P J; de Jong, P A; Schilham, A M R; Bos, C; Breur, J M P J; Leiner, T

2017-01-01

Complications might occur after great vessel stent implantation in children. Therefore follow-up using imaging is warranted. To determine the optimal imaging modality for the assessment of stents used to treat great vessel obstructions in children. Five different large vessel stents were evaluated in an in-vitro setting. All stents were expanded to the maximal vendor recommended diameter (20mm; n = 4 or 10mm; n = 1), placed in an anthropomorphic chest phantom and imaged with a 256-slice CT-scanner. MRI images were acquired at 1.5T using a multi-slice T2-weighted turbo spin echo, an RF-spoiled three-dimensional T1-weighted Fast Field Echo and a balanced turbo field echo 3D sequence. Two blinded observers assessed stent lumen visibility (measured diameter/true diameter *100%) in the center and at the outlets of the stent. Reproducibility of diameter measurements was evaluated using the intraclass correlation coefficient for reliability and 95% limits of agreement for agreement analysis. Median stent lumen visibility was 88 (IQR 86-90)% with CT for all stents at both the center and outlets. With MRI, the T2-weighted turbo spin echo sequence was preferred which resulted in 82 (78-84%) stent lumen visibility. Interobserver reliability and agreement was good for both CT (ICC 0.997, mean difference -0.51 [-1.07-0.05] mm) and MRI measurements (ICC 0.951, mean difference -0.05 [-2.52 --2.41] mm). Good in-stent lumen visibility was achievable in this in-vitro study with both CT and MRI in different great vessel stents. Overall reliability was good with clinical acceptable limits of agreement for both CT and MRI. However, common conditions such as in-stent stenosis and associated aneurysms were not tested in this in-vitro study, limiting the value of the in-vitro study.

Developing Remote Sensing Products for Monitoring and Modeling Great Lakes Coastal Wetland Vulnerability to Climate Change and Land Use

Science.gov (United States)

Bourgeau-Chavez, L. L.; Miller, M. E.; Battaglia, M.; Banda, E.; Endres, S.; Currie, W. S.; Elgersma, K. J.; French, N. H. F.; Goldberg, D. E.; Hyndman, D. W.

2014-12-01

Spread of invasive plant species in the coastal wetlands of the Great Lakes is degrading wetland habitat, decreasing biodiversity, and decreasing ecosystem services. An understanding of the mechanisms of invasion is crucial to gaining control of this growing threat. To better understand the effects of land use and climatic drivers on the vulnerability of coastal zones to invasion, as well as to develop an understanding of the mechanisms of invasion, research is being conducted that integrates field studies, process-based ecosystem and hydrological models, and remote sensing. Spatial data from remote sensing is needed to parameterize the hydrological model and to test the outputs of the linked models. We will present several new remote sensing products that are providing important physiological, biochemical, and landscape information to parameterize and verify models. This includes a novel hybrid radar-optical technique to delineate stands of invasives, as well as natural wetland cover types; using radar to map seasonally inundated areas not hydrologically connected; and developing new algorithms to estimate leaf area index (LAI) using Landsat. A coastal map delineating wetland types including monocultures of the invaders (Typha spp. and Phragmites austrailis) was created using satellite radar (ALOS PALSAR, 20 m resolution) and optical data (Landsat 5, 30 m resolution) fusion from multiple dates in a Random Forests classifier. These maps provide verification of the integrated model showing areas at high risk of invasion. For parameterizing the hydrological model, maps of seasonal wetness are being developed using spring (wet) imagery and differencing that with summer (dry) imagery to detect the seasonally wet areas. Finally, development of LAI remote sensing high resolution algorithms for uplands and wetlands is underway. LAI algorithms for wetlands have not been previously developed due to the difficulty of a water background. These products are being used to

Nonstandard Finite Difference Method Applied to a Linear Pharmacokinetics Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Oluwaseun Egbelowo

2017-05-01

Full Text Available We extend the nonstandard finite difference method of solution to the study of pharmacokinetic–pharmacodynamic models. Pharmacokinetic (PK models are commonly used to predict drug concentrations that drive controlled intravenous (I.V. transfers (or infusion and oral transfers while pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic (PD interaction models are used to provide predictions of drug concentrations affecting the response of these clinical drugs. We structure a nonstandard finite difference (NSFD scheme for the relevant system of equations which models this pharamcokinetic process. We compare the results obtained to standard methods. The scheme is dynamically consistent and reliable in replicating complex dynamic properties of the relevant continuous models for varying step sizes. This study provides assistance in understanding the long-term behavior of the drug in the system, and validation of the efficiency of the nonstandard finite difference scheme as the method of choice.

The Study of Bakhtin's Carnivalism in Christopher Marlowe's Tamburlaine The Great

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Maryam Navidi

2017-09-01

Full Text Available In re-visioning history, the dramatists from around the world look at the historical figures on their own ways, not as it is. However, they exert a unique way of recounting the past. That is why the historical characters such as Tamburlaine appears in Marlowe's Tamburlaine The Great, but in Marlowian view. Uunveiling what Marlowe has created and the original facts in history are expounded better in the light of Bakhtin's Carnivalism. It is a method to sub-alter what has been regarded as the norm. It has provided the second world that continues to exist beside the actual one. Marlowe's work has also tried to alter the historical facts and figures in Carnivalistique ways, in order to attract his contemporary people. Concomitantly, he's degraded the different religions. Therefore, this study aims to shed light on the different aspects of Tamburlaine The Great, in order to indicate how this play has made a means to manifest the social conditions of Elizabethan era in Carnivalistique ways.

Shallow Water Offshore Wind Optimization for the Great Lakes (DE-FOA-0000415) Final Report: A Conceptual Design for Wind Energy in the Great Lakes

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wissemann, Chris [Freshwater Wind I, LLC, Youngstown, OH (United States); White, Stanley M [Stanley White Engineering LLC, Noank, CT (United States)

2014-02-28

The primary objective of the project was to develop a innovative Gravity Base Foundation (GBF) concepts, including fabrication yards, launching systems and installation equipment, for a 500MW utility scale project in the Great Lakes (Lake Erie). The goal was to lower the LCOE by 25%. The project was the first to investigate an offshore wind project in the Great Lakes and it has furthered the body of knowledge for foundations and installation methods within Lake Erie. The project collected historical geotechnical information for Lake Erie and also used recently obtained data from the LEEDCo Icebreaker Project (FOA DE-EE0005989) geotechnical program to develop the conceptual designs. Using these data-sets, the project developed design wind and wave conditions from actual buoy data in order to develop a concept that would de-risk a project using a GBF. These wind and wave conditions were then utilized to create reference designs for various foundations specific to installation in Lake Erie. A project partner on the project (Weeks Marine) provided input for construction and costing the GBF fabrication and installation. By having a marine contractor with experience with large marine projects as part of the team provides credibility to the LCOE developed by NREL. NREL then utilized the design and construction costing information as part of the LCOE model. The report summarizes the findings of the project; Developed a cost model and “baseline” LCOE; Documented Site Conditions within Lake Erie; Developed Fabrication, Installation and Foundations Innovative Concept Designs; Evaluated LCOE Impact of Innovations; Developed Assembly line “Rail System” for GBF Construction and Staging; Developed Transit-Inspired Foundation Designs which incorporated: Semi-Floating Transit with Supplemental Pontoons Barge mounted Winch System; Developed GBF with “Penetration Skirt”; Developed Integrated GBF with Turbine Tower; Developed Turbine, Plant Layout and O&M Strategies. The

Using quantile regression to examine health care expenditures during the Great Recession.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Jie; Vargas-Bustamante, Arturo; Mortensen, Karoline; Thomas, Stephen B

2014-04-01

To examine the association between the Great Recession of 2007-2009 and health care expenditures along the health care spending distribution, with a focus on racial/ethnic disparities. Secondary data analyses of the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (2005-2006 and 2008-2009). Quantile multivariate regressions are employed to measure the different associations between the economic recession of 2007-2009 and health care spending. Race/ethnicity and interaction terms between race/ethnicity and a recession indicator are controlled to examine whether minorities encountered disproportionately lower health spending during the economic recession. The Great Recession was significantly associated with reductions in health care expenditures at the 10th-50th percentiles of the distribution, but not at the 75th-90th percentiles. Racial and ethnic disparities were more substantial at the lower end of the health expenditure distribution; however, on average the reduction in expenditures was similar for all race/ethnic groups. The Great Recession was also positively associated with spending on emergency department visits. This study shows that the relationship between the Great Recession and health care spending varied along the health expenditure distribution. More variability was observed in the lower end of the health spending distribution compared to the higher end. © Health Research and Educational Trust.

Attenuation of landscape signals through the coastal zone: A basin-wide analysis for the US Great Lakes shoreline, circa 2002-2010

Science.gov (United States)

We compare statistical models developed to describe a) the relationship between watershed properties and Great Lakes coastal wetlands with b) the relationship developed between watershed properties and the Great Lakes nearshore. Using landscape metrics from the GLEI project (Dan...

Groundwater declines are linked to changes in Great Plains stream fish assemblages.

Science.gov (United States)

Perkin, Joshuah S; Gido, Keith B; Falke, Jeffrey A; Fausch, Kurt D; Crockett, Harry; Johnson, Eric R; Sanderson, John

2017-07-11

Groundwater pumping for agriculture is a major driver causing declines of global freshwater ecosystems, yet the ecological consequences for stream fish assemblages are rarely quantified. We combined retrospective (1950-2010) and prospective (2011-2060) modeling approaches within a multiscale framework to predict change in Great Plains stream fish assemblages associated with groundwater pumping from the United States High Plains Aquifer. We modeled the relationship between the length of stream receiving water from the High Plains Aquifer and the occurrence of fishes characteristic of small and large streams in the western Great Plains at a regional scale and for six subwatersheds nested within the region. Water development at the regional scale was associated with construction of 154 barriers that fragment stream habitats, increased depth to groundwater and loss of 558 km of stream, and transformation of fish assemblage structure from dominance by large-stream to small-stream fishes. Scaling down to subwatersheds revealed consistent transformations in fish assemblage structure among western subwatersheds with increasing depths to groundwater. Although transformations occurred in the absence of barriers, barriers along mainstem rivers isolate depauperate western fish assemblages from relatively intact eastern fish assemblages. Projections to 2060 indicate loss of an additional 286 km of stream across the region, as well as continued replacement of large-stream fishes by small-stream fishes where groundwater pumping has increased depth to groundwater. Our work illustrates the shrinking of streams and homogenization of Great Plains stream fish assemblages related to groundwater pumping, and we predict similar transformations worldwide where local and regional aquifer depletions occur.

Horticulture in Argentina: a productive alternative with great potential

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ana Maria Castagnino

2011-12-01

Full Text Available Horticulture in Argentina is an activity with great potential whose history has mainly been driven by Italian immigrants who arrived during the last two centuries. It is a valuable complement for traditional primary productions on which the country is focused with more than 30 millions of cultivated hectares and different agro-climatic conditions that characterize the different horticultural regions distributed throughout the country. The aim of this article is to give a panorama of the history, reality and perspectives in Argentina of an activity that is an opportunity for producers and entrepreneurs interested in it. Due to its characteristics, horticulture generates and dynamizes employment with great importance for regional economies. The proportion between vegetables and fruit produced and commercialized in Argentina is 63 and 34% respectively. Horticultural products for exportation largely are garlic, onion and beans. Concerning the most commercialized vegetables in Argentina, potato, tomato, onion, squash, lettuce, pepper, marrow and sweet potato stand out, whereas orange, tangerine, apple, banana, lemon, pear, grape and grapefruit may be highlighted among fruit. At present, the main challenge of the Argentinian horticultural sector is given not only by the possibilities of productive diversification and the expansion of the productive area but also of the technological level optimization, the application of quality norms and the agro-industry growth.

Financial Intermediation, House Prices and the Welfare Effects of the U.S. Great Recession

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Menno, Dominik Francesco; Oliviero, Tommaso

2014-01-01

drop in consumption than savers who relatively benefit from a redistribution of housing wealth during the recession. We show that the size of this redistribution mechanism would have been significantly lower if (i) mortgage spreads would have remained at the low pre-crisis levels during the recession......This paper quantifies how the welfare costs of the U.S. Great Recession are distributed across borrowing and saving U.S. households. For this purpose, we use a calibrated dynamic general equilibrium model of housing and household debt with shocks to aggregate income and shocks to the financial...... intermediation sector. The model matches the boom-bust cycle in house prices, the dynamics of household mortgage debt, and the increase in wealth inequality observed in the U.S. between 2001-2013. We find larger welfare costs of the Great Recession for borrowers than for savers. Borrowers experience a larger...

Comparison of Perturbed Pathways in Two Different Cell Models for Parkinson's Disease with Structural Equation Model.

Science.gov (United States)

Pepe, Daniele; Do, Jin Hwan

2015-12-16

Increasing evidence indicates that different morphological types of cell death coexist in the brain of patients with Parkinson's disease (PD), but the molecular explanation for this is still under investigation. In this study, we identified perturbed pathways in two different cell models for PD through the following procedures: (1) enrichment pathway analysis with differentially expressed genes and the Reactome pathway database, and (2) construction of the shortest path model for the enriched pathway and detection of significant shortest path model with fitting time-course microarray data of each PD cell model to structural equation model. Two PD cell models constructed by the same neurotoxin showed different perturbed pathways. That is, one showed perturbation of three Reactome pathways, including cellular senescence, chromatin modifying enzymes, and chromatin organization, while six modules within metabolism pathway represented perturbation in the other. This suggests that the activation of common upstream cell death pathways in PD may result in various down-stream processes, which might be associated with different morphological types of cell death. In addition, our results might provide molecular clues for coexistence of different morphological types of cell death in PD patients.

Volatility co-movement and the great moderation: An empirical analysis

OpenAIRE

Mumtaz, Haroon; Theodoridis, Konstantinos

2016-01-01

We propose an extended time-varying parameter Vector Autoregression that allows for an evolving relationship between the variances of the shocks. Using this model, we show that the relationship between the conditional variance of GDP growth and the long-term interest rate has become weaker over time in the US. Similarly, the co-movement between the variance of the long-term interest rate across the US and the UK declined over the 'Great Moderation' period. In contrast, the volatility of US an...

A landscape approach for ecologically based management of Great Basin shrublands

Science.gov (United States)

Michael J. Wisdom; Jeanne C. Chambers

2009-01-01

Native shrublands dominate the Great Basin of western of North America, and most of these communities are at moderate or high risk of loss from non-native grass invasion and woodland expansion. Landscape-scale management based on differences in ecological resistance and resilience of shrublands can reduce these risks. We demonstrate this approach with an example that...

Great Books. What Works Clearinghouse Intervention Report

Science.gov (United States)

What Works Clearinghouse, 2011

2011-01-01

"Great Books" is a program that aims to improve the reading, writing, and critical thinking skills of students in kindergarten through high school. The program is implemented as a core or complementary curriculum and is based on the Shared Inquiry[TM] method of learning. The purpose of "Great Books" is to engage students in…

Libraries Achieving Greatness: Technology at the Helm

Science.gov (United States)

Muir, Scott P.

2009-01-01

Libraries have been around for thousands of years. Many of them are considered great because of their magnificent architecture or because of the size of their collections. This paper offers ten case studies of libraries that have used technology to achieve greatness. Because almost any library can implement technology, a library does not have to…

Egg Speckling Patterns Do Not Advertise Offspring Quality or Influence Male Provisioning in Great Tits

Science.gov (United States)

Stoddard, Mary Caswell; Fayet, Annette L.; Kilner, Rebecca M.; Hinde, Camilla A.

2012-01-01

Many passerine birds lay white eggs with reddish brown speckles produced by protoporphyrin pigment. However, the function of these spots is contested. Recently, the sexually selected eggshell coloration (SSEC) hypothesis proposed that eggshell color is a sexually selected signal through which a female advertises her quality (and hence the potential quality of her future young) to her male partner, thereby encouraging him to contribute more to breeding attempts. We performed a test of the SSEC hypothesis in a common passerine, the great tit Parus major. We used a double cross-fostering design to determine whether males change their provisioning behavior based on eggshell patterns they observe at the nest. We also tested the assumption that egg patterning reflects female and/or offspring quality. Because birds differ from humans in their color and pattern perception, we used digital photography and models of bird vision to quantify egg patterns objectively. Neither male provisioning nor chick growth was related to the pattern of eggs males observed during incubation. Although heavy females laid paler, less speckled eggs, these eggs did not produce chicks that grew faster. Therefore, we conclude that the SSEC hypothesis is an unlikely explanation for the evolution of egg speckling in great tits. PMID:22815730

Egg speckling patterns do not advertise offspring quality or influence male provisioning in great tits.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mary Caswell Stoddard

Full Text Available Many passerine birds lay white eggs with reddish brown speckles produced by protoporphyrin pigment. However, the function of these spots is contested. Recently, the sexually selected eggshell coloration (SSEC hypothesis proposed that eggshell color is a sexually selected signal through which a female advertises her quality (and hence the potential quality of her future young to her male partner, thereby encouraging him to contribute more to breeding attempts. We performed a test of the SSEC hypothesis in a common passerine, the great tit Parus major. We used a double cross-fostering design to determine whether males change their provisioning behavior based on eggshell patterns they observe at the nest. We also tested the assumption that egg patterning reflects female and/or offspring quality. Because birds differ from humans in their color and pattern perception, we used digital photography and models of bird vision to quantify egg patterns objectively. Neither male provisioning nor chick growth was related to the pattern of eggs males observed during incubation. Although heavy females laid paler, less speckled eggs, these eggs did not produce chicks that grew faster. Therefore, we conclude that the SSEC hypothesis is an unlikely explanation for the evolution of egg speckling in great tits.

Coalescence of liquid drops: Different models versus experiment

KAUST Repository

Sprittles, J. E.

2012-01-01

The process of coalescence of two identical liquid drops is simulated numerically in the framework of two essentially different mathematical models, and the results are compared with experimental data on the very early stages of the coalescence process reported recently. The first model tested is the "conventional" one, where it is assumed that coalescence as the formation of a single body of fluid occurs by an instant appearance of a liquid bridge smoothly connecting the two drops, and the subsequent process is the evolution of this single body of fluid driven by capillary forces. The second model under investigation considers coalescence as a process where a section of the free surface becomes trapped between the bulk phases as the drops are pressed against each other, and it is the gradual disappearance of this "internal interface" that leads to the formation of a single body of fluid and the conventional model taking over. Using the full numerical solution of the problem in the framework of each of the two models, we show that the recently reported electrical measurements probing the very early stages of the process are better described by the interface formation/disappearance model. New theory-guided experiments are suggested that would help to further elucidate the details of the coalescence phenomenon. As a by-product of our research, the range of validity of different "scaling laws" advanced as approximate solutions to the problem formulated using the conventional model is established. © 2012 American Institute of Physics.

CAUSES: Diagnosis of the Summertime Warm Bias in CMIP5 Climate Models at the ARM Southern Great Plains Site

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Chengzhu; Xie, Shaocheng; Klein, Stephen A.; Ma, Hsi-yen; Tang, Shuaiqi; Van Weverberg, Kwinten; Morcrette, Cyril J.; Petch, Jon

2018-03-01

All the weather and climate models participating in the Clouds Above the United States and Errors at the Surface project show a summertime surface air temperature (T2 m) warm bias in the region of the central United States. To understand the warm bias in long-term climate simulations, we assess the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5, with long-term observations mainly from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement program Southern Great Plains site. Quantities related to the surface energy and water budget, and large-scale circulation are analyzed to identify possible factors and plausible links involved in the warm bias. The systematic warm season bias is characterized by an overestimation of T2 m and underestimation of surface humidity, precipitation, and precipitable water. Accompanying the warm bias is an overestimation of absorbed solar radiation at the surface, which is due to a combination of insufficient cloud reflection and clear-sky shortwave absorption by water vapor and an underestimation in surface albedo. The bias in cloud is shown to contribute most to the radiation bias. The surface layer soil moisture impacts T2 m through its control on evaporative fraction. The error in evaporative fraction is another important contributor to T2 m. Similar sources of error are found in hindcast from other Clouds Above the United States and Errors at the Surface studies. In Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project simulations, biases in meridional wind velocity associated with the low-level jet and the 500 hPa vertical velocity may also relate to T2 m bias through their control on the surface energy and water budget.

The Great Recession and America's Geography of Unemployment.

Science.gov (United States)

Thiede, Brian C; Monnat, Shannon M

The Great Recession of 2007-2009 was the most severe and lengthy economic crisis in the U.S. since the Great Depression. The impacts on the population were multi-dimensional, but operated largely through local labor markets. To examine differences in recession-related changes in county unemployment rates and assess how population and place characteristics shaped these patterns. We calculate and decompose Theil Indexes to describe recession-related changes in the distribution of unemployment rates between counties and states. We use exploratory spatial statistics to identify geographic clusters of counties that experienced similar changes in unemployment. We use spatial regression to evaluate associations between county-level recession impacts on unemployment and demographic composition, industrial structure, and state context. The recession was associated with increased inequality between county labor markets within states, but declining between-state differences. Counties that experienced disproportionate recession-related increases in unemployment were spatially clustered and characterized by large shares of historically disadvantaged racial and ethnic minority populations, low educational attainment, and heavy reliance on pro-cyclical industries. Associations between these sources of vulnerability were partially explained by unobserved state-level factors. The local consequences of macroeconomic trends are associated with county population characteristics, as well as the structural contexts and policy environments in which they are embedded. The recession placed upward pressure on within-state inequality between local labor market conditions. To present new estimates of the recession's impact on local labor markets, quantify how heterogeneous impacts affected the distribution of unemployment prevalence, and identify county characteristics associated with disproportionately large recession-related increases in unemployment.

Future changes in the climatology of the Great Plains low-level jet derived from fine resolution multi-model simulations.

Science.gov (United States)

Tang, Ying; Winkler, Julie; Zhong, Shiyuan; Bian, Xindi; Doubler, Dana; Yu, Lejiang; Walters, Claudia

2017-07-10

The southerly Great Plains low-level jet (GPLLJ) is one of the most significant circulation features of the central U.S. linking large-scale atmospheric circulation with the regional climate. GPLLJs transport heat and moisture, contribute to thunderstorm and severe weather formation, provide a corridor for the springtime migration of birds and insects, enhance wind energy availability, and disperse air pollution. We assess future changes in GPLLJ frequency using an eight member ensemble of dynamically-downscaled climate simulations for the mid-21st century. Nocturnal GPLLJ frequency is projected to increase in the southern plains in spring and in the central plains in summer, whereas current climatological patterns persist into the future for daytime and cool season GPLLJs. The relationship between future GPLLJ frequency and the extent and strength of anticyclonic airflow over eastern North America varies with season. Most simulations project a westward shift of anticyclonic airflow in summer, but uncertainty is larger for spring with only half of the simulations suggesting a westward expansion. The choice of regional climate model and the driving lateral boundary conditions have a large influence on the projected future changes in GPLLJ frequency and highlight the importance of multi-model ensembles to estimate the uncertainty surrounding the future GPLLJ climatology.

Shadowing of gluons in perturbative QCD: A comparison of different models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jalilian-Marian, Jamal; Wang, Xin-Nian

2001-01-01

We investigate the different perturbative QCD-based models for nuclear shadowing of gluons. We show that, in the kinematic region appropriate to the BNL relativistic heavy ion collider experiment, all models give similar estimates for the magnitude of gluon shadowing. At scales relevant to CERN large hadron collider (LHC), there is a sizable difference between the predictions of the different models. However, the uncertainties in gluon shadowing coming from a different parametrization of the gluon distribution in nucleons, are larger than those due to different perturbative QCD models of gluon shadowing. We also investigate the effect of initial nonperturbative shadowing on the magnitude of perturbative shadowing and show that the magnitudes of perturbative and nonperturbative shadowing are comparable at RHIC but perturbative shadowing dominates over nonperturbative shadowing at smaller values of x reached at LHC

Finite difference time domain modelling of particle accelerators

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jurgens, T.G.; Harfoush, F.A.

1989-03-01

Finite Difference Time Domain (FDTD) modelling has been successfully applied to a wide variety of electromagnetic scattering and interaction problems for many years. Here the method is extended to incorporate the modelling of wake fields in particle accelerators. Algorithmic comparisons are made to existing wake field codes, such as MAFIA T3. 9 refs., 7 figs

Great SEP events and space weather: 2. Automatic determination of the solar energetic particle spectrum

Science.gov (United States)

Applbaum, David; Dorman, Lev; Pustil'Nik, Lev; Sternlieb, Abraham; Zagnetko, Alexander; Zukerman, Igor

In Applbaum et al. (2010) it was described how the "SEP-Search" program works automat-ically, determining on the basis of on-line one-minute NM data the beginning of a great SEP event. The "SEP-Search" next uses one-minute data in order to check whether or not the observed increase reflects the beginning of a real great SEP event. If yes, the program "SEP-Research/Spectrum" automatically starts to work on line. We consider two variants: 1) quiet period (no change in cut-off rigidity), 2) disturbed period (characterized with possible changing of cut-off rigidity). We describe the method of determining the spectrum of SEP in the 1st vari-ant (for this we need data for at least two components with different coupling functions). For the 2nd variant we need data for at least three components with different coupling functions. We show that for these purposes one can use data of the total intensity and some different mul-tiplicities, but that it is better to use data from two or three NM with different cut-off rigidities. We describe in detail the algorithms of the program "SEP-Research/Spectrum." We show how this program worked on examples of some historical great SEP events. The work of NM on Mt. Hermon is supported by Israel (Tel Aviv University and ISA) -Italian (UNIRoma-Tre and IFSI-CNR) collaboration.

The Production of National Scale Models for Natural Geohazards in Great Britain

Science.gov (United States)

Royse, Katherine

2010-05-01

Although Great Britain (GB), is untroubled by large-magnitude earthquakes or tsunamis, there is a growing financial and health threat from geohazards affecting both people and property (principally from flooding, shrink-swell clays, landslides, coastal erosion, radon and soluble rocks). This is both in terms of direct costs for remediation and indirectly from higher insurance premiums. For example, the Association of British Insurers reported that the 2007 summer floods cost Britain approximately £3billion; a figure which is predicted to triple every decade due to the increasing value of assets and potential increase in flood occurrence due to environmental change. Remediation from damage caused by shrink-swell clays alone is estimated to cost the insurance industry an average of over £300 million per year an amount that will inevitably increase given current predictions for future climate it is therefore essential that we are able to quantify and strategically assess the occurrence of geohazards in GB as a whole. This will enable us to understand their relationship to critical infrastructure (hospitals, utilities and major transportation routes), industry and major urban centres and provide an understanding of the environmental impacts that an increase in any one of these geohazards might have on, the lives of the British people, for example, flooding and associated landslides can affect the mobilisation of confined contaminants and subsequently the character and use of available land in the future. Since 2002 the British Geological Survey (BGS) has been developing national-scale models of natural geohazards in GB for just this purpose. These include, to date, landslides, shrink-swell, soluble rocks, compressible and collapsible deposits, groundwater flooding, geological indicators of flooding, radon potential, potentially harmful elements in soil, and mining hazards. The models have been created using a combination of expert knowledge (from both within BGS and

Fibrodysplasia ossificans progressiva (FOP): watch the great toes!

Science.gov (United States)

Kartal-Kaess, Mutlu; Shore, Eileen M; Xu, Meiqi; Schwering, Ludwig; Uhl, Markus; Korinthenberg, Rudolf; Niemeyer, Charlotte; Kaplan, Frederick S; Lauten, Melchior

2010-11-01

Fibrodysplasia ossificans progressiva (FOP) is a rare genetic disorder and the most disabling condition of heterotopic (extraskeletal) ossification in humans. Extraskeletal bone formation associated with inflammation preceding the osseous conversion usually begins in the first decade, predominantly in the head, neck, and shoulders. All patients have malformed great toes. Most patients have a spontaneous mutation of the ACVR1 gene. We report a 17-year-old girl with malformed great toes who had her first episode of heterotopic ossification and impaired mobility of the left hip at the age of 13 years. No inflammatory fibroproliferative masses preceded the onset of heterotopic ossification. Radiographic studies demonstrated myositis ossificans, but failure to associate the great toe malformation with heterotopic ossification led to a failure to diagnose FOP. She underwent repeated and unnecessary operative procedures to remove a recurrent lesion. FOP was finally suspected when the great toe malformation was correlated with the trauma-induced heterotopic ossification. Genetic analysis confirmed the presence of the classic FOP mutation (ACVR1 c.617G>A; R206H). This case highlights the importance of examining the great toes in anyone with heterotopic ossification. The association of malformations of the great toe with heterotopic ossification in all cases of classic FOP will lead to prompt clinical diagnosis and the prevention of iatrogenic harm.

Modeling of NiTiHf using finite difference method

Science.gov (United States)

Farjam, Nazanin; Mehrabi, Reza; Karaca, Haluk; Mirzaeifar, Reza; Elahinia, Mohammad

2018-03-01

NiTiHf is a high temperature and high strength shape memory alloy with transformation temperatures above 100oC. A constitutive model based on Gibbs free energy is developed to predict the behavior of this material. Two different irrecoverable strains including transformation induced plastic strain (TRIP) and viscoplastic strain (VP) are considered when using high temperature shape memory alloys (HTSMAs). The first one happens during transformation at high levels of stress and the second one is related to the creep which is rate-dependent. The developed model is implemented for NiTiHf under uniaxial loading. Finite difference method is utilized to solve the proposed equations. The material parameters in the equations are calibrated from experimental data. Simulation results are captured to investigate the superelastic behavior of NiTiHf. The extracted results are compared with experimental tests of isobaric heating and cooling at different levels of stress and also superelastic tests at different levels of temperature. More results are generated to investigate the capability of the proposed model in the prediction of the irrecoverable strain after full transformation in HTSMAs.

Simulation analysis of a wind farm with different aggregated models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Li, H.; Wang, H.; Zhao, B.

2011-01-01

Based on a wind farm including wind turbines with squirrel cage induction generators (SCIGs), different aggregated models of a wind farm, such as a single weighted average model, a reduced-order re-scaled model, a parameter transformed model and a single weighted arithmetic model were presented, ...

Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory

Data.gov (United States)

Federal Laboratory Consortium — NOAA-GLERL and its partners conduct innovative research on the dynamic environments and ecosystems of the Great Lakes and coastal regions to provide information for...

Early emergence of anthropogenically forced heat waves in the western United States and Great Lakes

Science.gov (United States)

Lopez, Hosmay; West, Robert; Dong, Shenfu; Goni, Gustavo; Kirtman, Ben; Lee, Sang-Ki; Atlas, Robert

2018-05-01

Climate projections for the twenty-first century suggest an increase in the occurrence of heat waves. However, the time at which externally forced signals of anthropogenic climate change (ACC) emerge against background natural variability (time of emergence (ToE)) has been challenging to quantify, which makes future heat-wave projections uncertain. Here we combine observations and model simulations under present and future forcing to assess how internal variability and ACC modulate US heat waves. We show that ACC dominates heat-wave occurrence over the western United States and Great Lakes regions, with ToE that occurred as early as the 2020s and 2030s, respectively. In contrast, internal variability governs heat waves in the northern and southern Great Plains, where ToE occurs in the 2050s and 2070s; this later ToE is believed to be a result of a projected increase in circulation variability, namely the Great Plain low-level jet. Thus, greater mitigation and adaptation efforts are needed in the Great Lakes and western United States regions.

The Great Mathematician Project

Science.gov (United States)

Goldberg, Sabrina R.

2013-01-01

The Great Mathematician Project (GMP) introduces both mathematically sophisticated and struggling students to the history of mathematics. The rationale for the GMP is twofold: first, mathematics is a uniquely people-centered discipline that is used to make sense of the world; and second, students often express curiosity about the history of…

Interpopulation Variation in Contour Feather Structure Is Environmentally Determined in Great Tits

Science.gov (United States)

Broggi, Juli; Gamero, Anna; Hohtola, Esa; Orell, Markku; Nilsson, Jan-Åke

2011-01-01

Background The plumage of birds is important for flying, insulation and social communication. Contour feathers cover most of the avian body and among other functions they provide a critical insulation layer against heat loss. Feather structure and composition are known to vary among individuals, which in turn determines variation in the insulation properties of the feather. However, the extent and the proximate mechanisms underlying this variation remain unexplored. Methodology/Principal Findings We analyzed contour feather structure from two different great tit populations adapted to different winter regimes, one northern population in Oulu (Finland) and one southern population in Lund (Sweden). Great tits from the two populations differed significantly in feather structure. Birds from the northern population had a denser plumage but consisting of shorter feathers with a smaller proportion containing plumulaceous barbs, compared with conspecifics from the southern population. However, differences disappeared when birds originating from the two populations were raised and moulted in identical conditions in a common-garden experiment located in Oulu, under ad libitum nutritional conditions. All birds raised in the aviaries, including adult foster parents moulting in the same captive conditions, developed a similar feather structure. These feathers were different from that of wild birds in Oulu but similar to wild birds in Lund, the latter moulting in more benign conditions than those of Oulu. Conclusions/Significance Wild populations exposed to different conditions develop contour feather differences either due to plastic responses or constraints. Environmental conditions, such as nutrient availability during feather growth play a crucial role in determining such differences in plumage structure among populations. PMID:21949798

Interpopulation variation in contour feather structure is environmentally determined in great tits.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Juli Broggi

Full Text Available The plumage of birds is important for flying, insulation and social communication. Contour feathers cover most of the avian body and among other functions they provide a critical insulation layer against heat loss. Feather structure and composition are known to vary among individuals, which in turn determines variation in the insulation properties of the feather. However, the extent and the proximate mechanisms underlying this variation remain unexplored.We analyzed contour feather structure from two different great tit populations adapted to different winter regimes, one northern population in Oulu (Finland and one southern population in Lund (Sweden. Great tits from the two populations differed significantly in feather structure. Birds from the northern population had a denser plumage but consisting of shorter feathers with a smaller proportion containing plumulaceous barbs, compared with conspecifics from the southern population. However, differences disappeared when birds originating from the two populations were raised and moulted in identical conditions in a common-garden experiment located in Oulu, under ad libitum nutritional conditions. All birds raised in the aviaries, including adult foster parents moulting in the same captive conditions, developed a similar feather structure. These feathers were different from that of wild birds in Oulu but similar to wild birds in Lund, the latter moulting in more benign conditions than those of Oulu.Wild populations exposed to different conditions develop contour feather differences either due to plastic responses or constraints. Environmental conditions, such as nutrient availability during feather growth play a crucial role in determining such differences in plumage structure among populations.

Great Lakes CoastWatch Node

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — CoastWatch is a nationwide National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) program within which the Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory (GLERL)...

The Great Recession, insurance mandates, and the use of in vitro fertilization services in the United States.

Science.gov (United States)

Kiatpongsan, Sorapop; Huckman, Robert S; Hornstein, Mark D

2015-02-01

To investigate the relationship between economic activities, insurance mandates, and the use of in vitro fertilization (IVF) in the United States. We examined the correlation between the coincident index (a proxy for overall economic conditions) and IVF use at the national level from 2000 to 2011. We then analyzed the relationship at the state level through longitudinal regression models. The base model tested the correlation at the state level. Additional models examined whether this relationship was affected, both separately and jointly, by insurance mandates and the Great Recession. Not applicable. Not applicable. None. Direction and magnitude of the relationship between the coincident index and IVF use, and influences of insurance mandates and the Great Recession. The coincident index was positively correlated with IVF use at the national level (correlation coefficient = 0.89). At the state level, an increase of one unit in the coincident index was associated with an increase of 16 IVF cycles per 1 million women, with a significantly greater increase in IVF use in states with insurance mandates than in states without mandates (27 versus 15 IVF cycles per 1 million women). The Great Recession did not alter the relationship between the coincident index and IVF use. Our study demonstrates a positive relationship between the economy and IVF use, with greater magnitude in states with insurance mandates. This relationship was not affected by the Great Recession regardless of mandated insurance coverage. Copyright © 2015 American Society for Reproductive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Using maximum topology matching to explore differences in species distribution models

Science.gov (United States)

Poco, Jorge; Doraiswamy, Harish; Talbert, Marian; Morisette, Jeffrey; Silva, Claudio

2015-01-01

Species distribution models (SDM) are used to help understand what drives the distribution of various plant and animal species. These models are typically high dimensional scalar functions, where the dimensions of the domain correspond to predictor variables of the model algorithm. Understanding and exploring the differences between models help ecologists understand areas where their data or understanding of the system is incomplete and will help guide further investigation in these regions. These differences can also indicate an important source of model to model uncertainty. However, it is cumbersome and often impractical to perform this analysis using existing tools, which allows for manual exploration of the models usually as 1-dimensional curves. In this paper, we propose a topology-based framework to help ecologists explore the differences in various SDMs directly in the high dimensional domain. In order to accomplish this, we introduce the concept of maximum topology matching that computes a locality-aware correspondence between similar extrema of two scalar functions. The matching is then used to compute the similarity between two functions. We also design a visualization interface that allows ecologists to explore SDMs using their topological features and to study the differences between pairs of models found using maximum topological matching. We demonstrate the utility of the proposed framework through several use cases using different data sets and report the feedback obtained from ecologists.

Opinion evolution in different social acquaintance networks

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Xi; Zhang, Xiao; Wu, Zhan; Wang, Hongwei; Wang, Guohua; Li, Wei

2017-11-01

Social acquaintance networks influenced by social culture and social policy have a great impact on public opinion evolution in daily life. Based on the differences between socio-culture and social policy, three different social acquaintance networks (kinship-priority acquaintance network, independence-priority acquaintance network, and hybrid acquaintance network) incorporating heredity proportion ph and variation proportion pv are proposed in this paper. Numerical experiments are conducted to investigate network topology and different phenomena during opinion evolution, using the Deffuant model. We found that in kinship-priority acquaintance networks, similar to the Chinese traditional acquaintance networks, opinions always achieve fragmentation, resulting in the formation of multiple large clusters and many small clusters due to the fact that individuals believe more in their relatives and live in a relatively closed environment. In independence-priority acquaintance networks, similar to Western acquaintance networks, the results are similar to those in the kinship-priority acquaintance network. In hybrid acquaintance networks, similar to the Chinese modern acquaintance networks, only a few clusters are formed indicating that in modern China, opinions are more likely to reach consensus on a large scale. These results are similar to the opinion evolution phenomena in modern society, proving the rationality and applicability of network models combined with social culture and policy. We also found a threshold curve pv+2 ph=2.05 in the results for the final opinion clusters and evolution time. Above the threshold curve, opinions could easily reach consensus. Based on the above experimental results, a culture-policy-driven mechanism for the opinion dynamic is worth promoting in this paper, that is, opinion dynamics can be driven by different social cultures and policies through the influence of heredity and variation in interpersonal relationship networks. This

Modeling Color Difference for Visualization Design.

Science.gov (United States)

Szafir, Danielle Albers

2018-01-01

Color is frequently used to encode values in visualizations. For color encodings to be effective, the mapping between colors and values must preserve important differences in the data. However, most guidelines for effective color choice in visualization are based on either color perceptions measured using large, uniform fields in optimal viewing environments or on qualitative intuitions. These limitations may cause data misinterpretation in visualizations, which frequently use small, elongated marks. Our goal is to develop quantitative metrics to help people use color more effectively in visualizations. We present a series of crowdsourced studies measuring color difference perceptions for three common mark types: points, bars, and lines. Our results indicate that peoples' abilities to perceive color differences varies significantly across mark types. Probabilistic models constructed from the resulting data can provide objective guidance for designers, allowing them to anticipate viewer perceptions in order to inform effective encoding design.

Great Lakes Research Review, 1982. Appendices.

Science.gov (United States)

1982-11-01

7D-i53 28 GREAT LAKES RESEARCH REVIEW 1982 PPENDICES (U) / PETROLEUM REFINERY PO INT SOURCE TASK FORCE WINDSOR (ONTARIO) NOV 82UNCLASSIFIED F/G 8...C7 U. 3 X 7 45 1 2 0. ODm C of. C.’ WC.’ L. LI 7 R-Ri53 62B GREAT LKES RESEARCH REVIEW 1982 PPENDICES (U) 2/3 PETROLEUM REFINERY POINT SOURCE TASK...NUMBER ORGANIZATION* TITLE OF PROJECT 001 A** 0300 ERL-D Acute and Early Life Stage Toxicity Testing of Priority Pollutant Chemicals 002 A 0302 ERL-D

46 CFR 30.10-33 - Great Lakes-TB/L.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... 46 Shipping 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Great Lakes-TB/L. 30.10-33 Section 30.10-33 Shipping COAST GUARD, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY TANK VESSELS GENERAL PROVISIONS Definitions § 30.10-33 Great Lakes—TB/L. Under this designation shall be included all tank vessels navigating the Great Lakes. ...

The Paradoxical World of The Great Gatsby by F. Scott Fitzgerald

OpenAIRE

ŠANDEROVÁ, Milada

2015-01-01

In The Great Gatsby F. Scott Fitzgerald created a world of fundamental contradictions. Whether talking about the way the whole society works, the immense differences among social classes, the characters, or the tension between attributes of a particular character. Therefore, the goal of this bachelor thesis is to analyse the world of this novel as the world built on paradoxes.

Comparison of six different models describing survival of mammalian cells after irradiation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sontag, W.

1990-01-01

Six different cell-survival models have been compared. All models are based on the similar assumption that irradiated cells are able to exist in one of three states. S A is the state of a totally repaired cell, in state S C the cell contains lethal lesions and in state S b the cell contains potentially lethal lesions i.e. those which either can be repaired or converted into lethal lesions. The differences between the six models lie in the different mathematical relationships between the three states. To test the six models, six different sets of experimental data were used which describe cell survival at different repair times after irradiation with sparsely ionizing irradiation. In order to compare the models, a goodness-of-fit function was used. The differences between the six models were tested by use of the nonparametric Mann-Whitney two sample test. Based on the 95% confidence limit, this required separation into three groups. (orig.)

Does Sympathy Motivate Prosocial Behaviour in Great Apes?

Science.gov (United States)

Liebal, Katja; Vaish, Amrisha; Haun, Daniel; Tomasello, Michael

2014-01-01

Prosocial behaviours such as helping, comforting, or sharing are central to human social life. Because they emerge early in ontogeny, it has been proposed that humans are prosocial by nature and that from early on empathy and sympathy motivate such behaviours. The emerging question is whether humans share these abilities to feel with and for someone with our closest relatives, the great apes. Although several studies demonstrated that great apes help others, little is known about their underlying motivations. This study addresses this issue and investigates whether four species of great apes (Pongo pygmaeus, Gorilla gorilla, Pan troglodytes, Pan paniscus) help a conspecific more after observing the conspecific being harmed (a human experimenter steals the conspecific’s food) compared to a condition where no harming occurred. Results showed that in regard to the occurrence of prosocial behaviours, only orangutans, but not the African great apes, help others when help is needed, contrasting prior findings on chimpanzees. However, with the exception of one population of orangutans that helped significantly more after a conspecific was harmed than when no harm occurred, prosocial behaviour in great apes was not motivated by concern for others. PMID:24416212

Great ape gestures: intentional communication with a rich set of innate signals.

Science.gov (United States)

Byrne, R W; Cartmill, E; Genty, E; Graham, K E; Hobaiter, C; Tanner, J

2017-09-08

Great apes give gestures deliberately and voluntarily, in order to influence particular target audiences, whose direction of attention they take into account when choosing which type of gesture to use. These facts make the study of ape gesture directly relevant to understanding the evolutionary precursors of human language; here we present an assessment of ape gesture from that perspective, focusing on the work of the "St Andrews Group" of researchers. Intended meanings of ape gestures are relatively few and simple. As with human words, ape gestures often have several distinct meanings, which are effectively disambiguated by behavioural context. Compared to the signalling of most other animals, great ape gestural repertoires are large. Because of this, and the relatively small number of intended meanings they achieve, ape gestures are redundant, with extensive overlaps in meaning. The great majority of gestures are innate, in the sense that the species' biological inheritance includes the potential to develop each gestural form and use it for a specific range of purposes. Moreover, the phylogenetic origin of many gestures is relatively old, since gestures are extensively shared between different genera in the great ape family. Acquisition of an adult repertoire is a process of first exploring the innate species potential for many gestures and then gradual restriction to a final (active) repertoire that is much smaller. No evidence of syntactic structure has yet been detected.

Spatial differences in hydrologic characteristics and water chemistry of a temperate coastal plain peatland: The Great Dismal Swamp, USA

Science.gov (United States)

Speiran, Gary K.; Wurster, Frederick C.

2016-01-01

Spatial differences in hydrologic processes and geochemistry across forested peatlands control the response of the wetland-community species and resiliency to natural and anthropogenic disturbances. Knowing these controls is essential to effectively managing peatlands as resilient wetland habitats. The Great Dismal Swamp is a 45,325 hectare peatland in the Atlantic Coastal Plain of Virginia and North Carolina, USA, managed by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. The existing forest-species distribution is a product of timber harvesting, hydrologic alteration by canal and road construction, and wildfires. Since 2009, studies of hydrologic and geochemical controls have expanded knowledge of groundwater flow paths, water chemistry, response to precipitation events, and characteristics of the peat. Dominant hydrologic and geochemical controls include (1) the gradual slope in land surface, (2) vertical differences in the hydraulic characteristics of the peat, (3) the proximity of lateral groundwater and small stream inflows from uplands, (4) the presence of an extensive canal and road network, and (5) small, adjustable-height dams on the canals. Although upland sources provide some surface water and lateral groundwater inflow to western parts of the swamp, direct groundwater recharge by precipitation is the major source of water throughout the swamp and the only source in many areas. Additionally, the proximity and type of upland water sources affect water levels and nutrient concentrations in canal water and groundwater. Where streams are a dominant upland source, variations in groundwater levels and nutrient concentrations are greater than where recharge by precipitation is the primary water source. Where upland groundwater is a dominant source, water levels are more stable. Because the species distribution of forest communities in the Swamp is strongly influenced by these controls, swamp managers are beginning to incorporate this knowledge into forest, water, and fire

Regional groundwater-flow model of the Lake Michigan Basin in support of Great Lakes Basin water availability and use studies

Science.gov (United States)

Feinstein, D.T.; Hunt, R.J.; Reeves, H.W.

2010-01-01

A regional groundwater-flow model of the Lake Michigan Basin and surrounding areas has been developed in support of the Great Lakes Basin Pilot project under the U.S. Geological Survey's National Water Availability and Use Program. The transient 2-million-cell model incorporates multiple aquifers and pumping centers that create water-level drawdown that extends into deep saline waters. The 20-layer model simulates the exchange between a dense surface-water network and heterogeneous glacial deposits overlying stratified bedrock of the Wisconsin/Kankakee Arches and Michigan Basin in the Lower and Upper Peninsulas of Michigan; eastern Wisconsin; northern Indiana; and northeastern Illinois. The model is used to quantify changes in the groundwater system in response to pumping and variations in recharge from 1864 to 2005. Model results quantify the sources of water to major pumping centers, illustrate the dynamics of the groundwater system, and yield measures of water availability useful for water-resources management in the region. This report is a complete description of the methods and datasets used to develop the regional model, the underlying conceptual model, and model inputs, including specified values of material properties and the assignment of external and internal boundary conditions. The report also documents the application of the SEAWAT-2000 program for variable-density flow; it details the approach, advanced methods, and results associated with calibration through nonlinear regression using the PEST program; presents the water-level, drawdown, and groundwater flows for various geographic subregions and aquifer systems; and provides analyses of the effects of pumping from shallow and deep wells on sources of water to wells, the migration of groundwater divides, and direct and indirect groundwater discharge to Lake Michigan. The report considers the role of unconfined conditions at the regional scale as well as the influence of salinity on groundwater flow

Second-Generation Outcomes of the Great Migration.

Science.gov (United States)

Alexander, J Trent; Leibbrand, Christine; Massey, Catherine; Tolnay, Stewart

2017-12-01

The mass migration of African Americans out of the South during the first two-thirds of the twentieth century represents one of the most significant internal migration flows in U.S. Those undertaking the Great Migration left the South in search of a better life, and their move transformed the cultural, social, and political dynamics of African American life specifically and U.S. society more generally. Recent research offers conflicting evidence regarding the migrants' success in translating their geographic mobility into economic mobility. Due in part to the lack of a large body of longitudinal data, almost all studies of the Great Migration have focused on the migrants themselves, usually over short periods of their working lives. Using longitudinally linked census data, we take a broader view, investigating the long-term economic and social effects of the Great Migration on the migrants' children. Our results reveal modest but statistically significant advantages in education, income, and poverty status for the African American children of the Great Migration relative to the children of southerners who remained in the South. In contrast, second-generation white migrants experienced few benefits from migrating relative to southern or northern stayers.

Professor Witold Nowicki - a greatly spirited pathologist.

Science.gov (United States)

Wincewicz, A; Szepietowska, A; Sulkowski, S

2016-06-01

This paper presents a complete overview of the scientific, professional and social activity of a great Polish pathologist, Witold Nowicki (1878-1941), from mainly Polish-written, original sources with a major impact on mostly his own publications. The biographical commemoration of this eminent professor is not only due to the fact that he provided a profound microscopic characterization of pneumatosis cystoides in 1909 and 1924. Nowicki greatly influenced the development of anatomical pathology in Poland, having authored over 82 publications, with special reference to tuberculosis, lung cancer, sarcomatous carcinomas, scleroma and others. However, the first of all his merits for the readership of Polish pathologists was his textbook titled Anatomical Pathology, which was a basic pathology manual in pre-war Poland. Witold Nowicki - as the head of the academic pathological anatomy department and former dean of the medical faculty - was shot with other professors by Nazi Germans in the Wuleckie hills in Lvov during World War Two. Professor Nowicki was described as being "small in size but great in spirit" by one of his associates, and remains an outstanding example of a meticulous pathologist, a patient tutor and a great social activist to follow.

Degradation of Rural and Urban Great Tit Song

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mockford, Emily J; Marshall, Rupert C; Dabelsteen, Torben

2011-01-01

Acoustic signals play a fundamental role in avian territory defence and mate attraction. Several studies have now shown that spectral properties of bird song differ between urban and rural environments. Previously this has been attributed to competition for acoustic space as a result of low......-frequency noise present in cities. However, the physical structure of urban areas may have a contributory effect. Here we investigate the sound degradation properties of woodland and city environments using both urban and rural great tit song. We show that although urban surroundings caused significantly less...... degradation to both songs, the transmission efficiency of rural song compared to urban song was significantly lower in the city. While differences between the two songs in woodland were generally minimal, some measures of the transmission efficiency of rural song were significantly lower than those of urban...

Environmental Conditions Associated with Elevated Vibrio parahaemolyticus Concentrations in Great Bay Estuary, New Hampshire.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Erin A Urquhart

Full Text Available Reports from state health departments and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention indicate that the annual number of reported human vibriosis cases in New England has increased in the past decade. Concurrently, there has been a shift in both the spatial distribution and seasonal detection of Vibrio spp. throughout the region based on limited monitoring data. To determine environmental factors that may underlie these emerging conditions, this study focuses on a long-term database of Vibrio parahaemolyticus concentrations in oyster samples generated from data collected from the Great Bay Estuary, New Hampshire over a period of seven consecutive years. Oyster samples from two distinct sites were analyzed for V. parahaemolyticus abundance, noting significant relationships with various biotic and abiotic factors measured during the same period of study. We developed a predictive modeling tool capable of estimating the likelihood of V. parahaemolyticus presence in coastal New Hampshire oysters. Results show that the inclusion of chlorophyll a concentration to an empirical model otherwise employing only temperature and salinity variables, offers improved predictive capability for modeling the likelihood of V. parahaemolyticus in the Great Bay Estuary.

Comparison of Different GPP Models in China Using MODIS Image and ChinaFLUX Data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhengjia Liu

2014-10-01

Full Text Available Accurate quantification of gross primary production (GPP at regional and global scales is essential for carbon budgets and climate change studies. Five models, the vegetation photosynthesis model (VPM, the temperature and greenness model (TG, the alpine vegetation model (AVM, the greenness and radiation model (GR, and the MOD17 algorithm, were tested and calibrated at eight sites in China during 2003–2005. Results indicate that the first four models provide more reliable GPP estimation than MOD17 products/algorithm, although MODIS GPP products show better performance in grasslands, croplands, and mixed forest (MF. VPM and AVM produce better estimates in forest sites (R2 = 0.68 and 0.67, respectively; AVM and TG models show satisfactory GPP estimates for grasslands (R2 = 0.91 and 0.9, respectively. In general, the VPM model is the most suitable model for GPP estimation for all kinds of land cover types in China, with R2 higher than 0.34 and root mean square error (RMSE lower than 48.79%. The relationships between eddy CO2 flux and model parameters (Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI, photosynthetically active radiation (PAR, land surface temperature (LST, air temperature, and Land Surface Water Index (LSWI are further analyzed to investigate the model’s application to various land cover types, which will be of great importance for studying the effects of climatic factors on ecosystem performances.

OF THE GREAT TEMPLE OF BEL

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A. Denker

2017-02-01

Full Text Available The Great Temple of Bel in Palmyra was a unique edifice which had blended the well established lines of Greco-Roman architecture with the art and taste of the Orient. With the gilded bronze capitals of its 41 Corinthian columns it was the product of enormous effort and budget. It was the gem of a remarkable epoch of wealthy Palmyra and mighty Roma. With its splendidly decorated adyta ceilings it became a source of inspiration and imagination for Western architecture and decorative arts. While continuing to captivate the World, it was leveled and vanished as a grim result of conflict based vandalism. The aim of this work is to piece together this, the most eloquent and stupendous monument of the Roman East, from its ruins and reconstruct it as it was once extant. Its loss is irreplacable, but its photo-realistic reconstruction can offer some solace by waking the memories of the great temple as in the past. The lost reality of the Great Temple of Bel is revived here by digitally constructing its “ghost images".

Calibration of two complex ecosystem models with different likelihood functions

Science.gov (United States)

Hidy, Dóra; Haszpra, László; Pintér, Krisztina; Nagy, Zoltán; Barcza, Zoltán

2014-05-01

The biosphere is a sensitive carbon reservoir. Terrestrial ecosystems were approximately carbon neutral during the past centuries, but they became net carbon sinks due to climate change induced environmental change and associated CO2 fertilization effect of the atmosphere. Model studies and measurements indicate that the biospheric carbon sink can saturate in the future due to ongoing climate change which can act as a positive feedback. Robustness of carbon cycle models is a key issue when trying to choose the appropriate model for decision support. The input parameters of the process-based models are decisive regarding the model output. At the same time there are several input parameters for which accurate values are hard to obtain directly from experiments or no local measurements are available. Due to the uncertainty associated with the unknown model parameters significant bias can be experienced if the model is used to simulate the carbon and nitrogen cycle components of different ecosystems. In order to improve model performance the unknown model parameters has to be estimated. We developed a multi-objective, two-step calibration method based on Bayesian approach in order to estimate the unknown parameters of PaSim and Biome-BGC models. Biome-BGC and PaSim are a widely used biogeochemical models that simulate the storage and flux of water, carbon, and nitrogen between the ecosystem and the atmosphere, and within the components of the terrestrial ecosystems (in this research the developed version of Biome-BGC is used which is referred as BBGC MuSo). Both models were calibrated regardless the simulated processes and type of model parameters. The calibration procedure is based on the comparison of measured data with simulated results via calculating a likelihood function (degree of goodness-of-fit between simulated and measured data). In our research different likelihood function formulations were used in order to examine the effect of the different model

Mixed models approaches for joint modeling of different types of responses.

Science.gov (United States)

Ivanova, Anna; Molenberghs, Geert; Verbeke, Geert

2016-01-01

In many biomedical studies, one jointly collects longitudinal continuous, binary, and survival outcomes, possibly with some observations missing. Random-effects models, sometimes called shared-parameter models or frailty models, received a lot of attention. In such models, the corresponding variance components can be employed to capture the association between the various sequences. In some cases, random effects are considered common to various sequences, perhaps up to a scaling factor; in others, there are different but correlated random effects. Even though a variety of data types has been considered in the literature, less attention has been devoted to ordinal data. For univariate longitudinal or hierarchical data, the proportional odds mixed model (POMM) is an instance of the generalized linear mixed model (GLMM; Breslow and Clayton, 1993). Ordinal data are conveniently replaced by a parsimonious set of dummies, which in the longitudinal setting leads to a repeated set of dummies. When ordinal longitudinal data are part of a joint model, the complexity increases further. This is the setting considered in this paper. We formulate a random-effects based model that, in addition, allows for overdispersion. Using two case studies, it is shown that the combination of random effects to capture association with further correction for overdispersion can improve the model's fit considerably and that the resulting models allow to answer research questions that could not be addressed otherwise. Parameters can be estimated in a fairly straightforward way, using the SAS procedure NLMIXED.

Comparison of containment response by model difference between GOTHIC and CONTEMPT

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Byun, Choong Sup; Song, Dong Soo; Park, Young Chan [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Taejon (Korea, Republic of)

2005-07-01

GOTHIC and CONTEMPT are containment performance analysis codes, which are used in calculation of containment pressure and temperature for design basis accidents such as a loss of coolant accident(LOCA) and main steam line break(MSLB) accident. CONTEMPT models vapor and liquid phases, but GOTHIC has one more phase, drop phase. The containment responses between two codes are different each other during initial stage of accident due to this model difference. This paper evaluates the model difference between GOTHIC and CONTEMPT.

Comparison of containment response by model difference between GOTHIC and CONTEMPT

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Byun, Choong Sup; Song, Dong Soo; Park, Young Chan

2005-01-01

GOTHIC and CONTEMPT are containment performance analysis codes, which are used in calculation of containment pressure and temperature for design basis accidents such as a loss of coolant accident(LOCA) and main steam line break(MSLB) accident. CONTEMPT models vapor and liquid phases, but GOTHIC has one more phase, drop phase. The containment responses between two codes are different each other during initial stage of accident due to this model difference. This paper evaluates the model difference between GOTHIC and CONTEMPT

An adaptation model for trabecular bone at different mechanical levels

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lv Linwei

2010-07-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Bone has the ability to adapt to mechanical usage or other biophysical stimuli in terms of its mass and architecture, indicating that a certain mechanism exists for monitoring mechanical usage and controlling the bone's adaptation behaviors. There are four zones describing different bone adaptation behaviors: the disuse, adaptation, overload, and pathologic overload zones. In different zones, the changes of bone mass, as calculated by the difference between the amount of bone formed and what is resorbed, should be different. Methods An adaptation model for the trabecular bone at different mechanical levels was presented in this study based on a number of experimental observations and numerical algorithms in the literature. In the proposed model, the amount of bone formation and the probability of bone remodeling activation were proposed in accordance with the mechanical levels. Seven numerical simulation cases under different mechanical conditions were analyzed as examples by incorporating the adaptation model presented in this paper with the finite element method. Results The proposed bone adaptation model describes the well-known bone adaptation behaviors in different zones. The bone mass and architecture of the bone tissue within the adaptation zone almost remained unchanged. Although the probability of osteoclastic activation is enhanced in the overload zone, the potential of osteoblasts to form bones compensate for the osteoclastic resorption, eventually strengthening the bones. In the disuse zone, the disuse-mode remodeling removes bone tissue in disuse zone. Conclusions The study seeks to provide better understanding of the relationships between bone morphology and the mechanical, as well as biological environments. Furthermore, this paper provides a computational model and methodology for the numerical simulation of changes of bone structural morphology that are caused by changes of mechanical and biological

Optimal variable-grid finite-difference modeling for porous media

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liu, Xinxin; Yin, Xingyao; Li, Haishan

2014-01-01

Numerical modeling of poroelastic waves by the finite-difference (FD) method is more expensive than that of acoustic or elastic waves. To improve the accuracy and computational efficiency of seismic modeling, variable-grid FD methods have been developed. In this paper, we derived optimal staggered-grid finite difference schemes with variable grid-spacing and time-step for seismic modeling in porous media. FD operators with small grid-spacing and time-step are adopted for low-velocity or small-scale geological bodies, while FD operators with big grid-spacing and time-step are adopted for high-velocity or large-scale regions. The dispersion relations of FD schemes were derived based on the plane wave theory, then the FD coefficients were obtained using the Taylor expansion. Dispersion analysis and modeling results demonstrated that the proposed method has higher accuracy with lower computational cost for poroelastic wave simulation in heterogeneous reservoirs. (paper)

78 FR 5474 - Great Lakes Pilotage Advisory Committee

Science.gov (United States)

2013-01-25

... DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY Coast Guard [USCG-2013-0029] Great Lakes Pilotage Advisory... Meeting. SUMMARY: The Great Lakes Pilotage Advisory Committee (GLPAC) will meet on February 11, 2013, in..., 2013, after the committee completes its work on the agenda given under SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION...

Statistical modeling of urban air temperature distributions under different synoptic conditions

Science.gov (United States)

Beck, Christoph; Breitner, Susanne; Cyrys, Josef; Hald, Cornelius; Hartz, Uwe; Jacobeit, Jucundus; Richter, Katja; Schneider, Alexandra; Wolf, Kathrin

2015-04-01

Within urban areas air temperature may vary distinctly between different locations. These intra-urban air temperature variations partly reach magnitudes that are relevant with respect to human thermal comfort. Therefore and furthermore taking into account potential interrelations with other health related environmental factors (e.g. air quality) it is important to estimate spatial patterns of intra-urban air temperature distributions that may be incorporated into urban planning processes. In this contribution we present an approach to estimate spatial temperature distributions in the urban area of Augsburg (Germany) by means of statistical modeling. At 36 locations in the urban area of Augsburg air temperatures are measured with high temporal resolution (4 min.) since December 2012. These 36 locations represent different typical urban land use characteristics in terms of varying percentage coverages of different land cover categories (e.g. impervious, built-up, vegetated). Percentage coverages of these land cover categories have been extracted from different sources (Open Street Map, European Urban Atlas, Urban Morphological Zones) for regular grids of varying size (50, 100, 200 meter horizonal resolution) for the urban area of Augsburg. It is well known from numerous studies that land use characteristics have a distinct influence on air temperature and as well other climatic variables at a certain location. Therefore air temperatures at the 36 locations are modeled utilizing land use characteristics (percentage coverages of land cover categories) as predictor variables in Stepwise Multiple Regression models and in Random Forest based model approaches. After model evaluation via cross-validation appropriate statistical models are applied to gridded land use data to derive spatial urban air temperature distributions. Varying models are tested and applied for different seasons and times of the day and also for different synoptic conditions (e.g. clear and calm

Economic Conditions of Young Adults Before and After the Great Recession.

Science.gov (United States)

Sironi, Maria

2018-01-01

Transition to adulthood has undoubtedly changed in the last few decades. For youth today, an important marker of adulthood is self-actualization in their professional career, and, consequently, also the achievement of stable financial conditions. Economic conditions of youth are greatly subject to fluctuations in the economy, and the subsequent governmental response. Using the Luxembourg Income Study, this work investigates the trends in income from work of young adults before and after the Great Recession of 2008 in five countries-US, UK, Norway, Germany, and Spain. The findings showed deterioration in economic conditions of young men, but with differences across countries. Young women suffered less from the crisis, and in some countries, their economic situation improved. The general negative trend was especially pronounced for those with high education, which is primarily because they stayed in education longer.

Gender Differences in Animal Models of Posttraumatic Stress Disorder

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Hagit Cohen

2011-01-01

Full Text Available Epidemiological studies report higher prevalence rates of stress-related disorders such as acute stress disorder and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD in women than in men following exposure to trauma. It is still not clear whether this greater prevalence in woman reflects a greater vulnerability to stress-related psychopathology. A number of individual and trauma-related characteristics have been hypothesized to contribute to these gender differences in physiological and psychological responses to trauma, differences in appraisal, interpretation or experience of threat, coping style or social support. In this context, the use of an animal model for PTSD to analyze some of these gender-related differences may be of particular utility. Animal models of PTSD offer the opportunity to distinguish between biological and socio-cultural factors, which so often enter the discussion about gender differences in PTSD prevalence.

The Great Recession and America's geography of unemployment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Brian Thiede

2016-09-01

Full Text Available Background: The Great Recession of 2007-2009 was the most severe and lengthy economic crisis in the US since the Great Depression of the 1930s. The impacts on the population were multi-dimensional, but operated largely through local labor markets. Objective: To examine differences in recession-related changes in county unemployment rates and assess how population and place characteristics shaped these patterns. Methods: We calculate and decompose Theil Indexes to describe recession-related changes in the distribution of unemployment rates between counties and states. We use exploratory spatial statistics to identify geographic clusters of counties that experienced similar changes in unemployment. We use spatial regression to evaluate associations between county-level recession impacts on unemployment and demographic composition, industrial structure, and state context. Results: The recession was associated with increased inequality between county labor markets within states, but declining between-state differences. Counties that experienced disproportionate recession-related increases in unemployment were spatially clustered and characterized by large shares of historically disadvantaged racial and ethnic minority populations, low educational attainment, and heavy reliance on pro-cyclical industries. Associations between these sources of vulnerability were partially explained by unobserved state-level factors. Conclusions: The local consequences of macroeconomic trends are associated with county population characteristics, and the structural contexts and policy environments in which they are embedded. The recession placed upward pressure on within-state disparities in local labor market conditions. Contribution: To present new estimates of the recession's impact on local labor markets, quantify how heterogeneous impacts affected the distribution of unemployment prevalence, and identify county characteristics associated with disproportionately

The effect of the United States Great Lakes on the maintenance of derecho-producing mesoscale convective systems.

Science.gov (United States)

Bentley, M.; Sparks, J.; Graham, R.

2003-04-01

The primary aim of this research is to investigate the influence of the United States Great Lakes on the intensity of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs). One of the greatest nowcast challenges during the warm season is anticipating the impact of the Great Lakes on severe convection, particularly MCSs capable of producing damaging widespread windstorms known as derechos. Since a major derecho activity corridor lies over the Great Lakes region, it is important to understand the effects of the Lakes on the intensity and propagation of severe wind producing MCSs. Specific objectives of the research include: 1) The development of a short-term climatology of MCS events that have impacted the Great Lakes region over the past seven years; 2) An analysis of radar, satellite, surface (including buoy and lighthouse observations), and lake surface temperature data to determine the environmental conditions impacting the evolution of MCSs passing over a Great Lake; 3) An examination of MCS initiation times and seasonal frequencies of occurrence to delineate temporal consistencies in MCS evolution due to changing lake surface temperatures; and 4) The development of conceptual and forecast models to help anticipate MCS intensity and morphology as these systems interact with the Great Lakes environment.

Arthroscopy of the great toe

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Frey, C.; van Dijk, C. N.

1999-01-01

The few available reports of arthroscopic treatment of the first MTP joint in the literature indicate favorable outcome. However, arthroscopy of the great toe is an advanced technique and should only be undertaken by experienced surgeons

Classification and Accuracy Assessment for Coarse Resolution Mapping within the Great Lakes Basin, USA

Science.gov (United States)

This study applied a phenology-based land-cover classification approach across the Laurentian Great Lakes Basin (GLB) using time-series data consisting of 23 Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) composite images (250 ...

Groundwater flow systems in the great Aletsch glacier region (Valais, Switzerland)

Science.gov (United States)

Alpiger, Andrea; Loew, Simon

2014-05-01

Groundwater flow systems in Alpine areas are often complex and challenging to investigate due to special topographic and climatic conditions governing groundwater recharge and bedrock flow. Studies seeking to characterize high-alpine groundwater systems remain rare, but are of high interest, e.g. for water supply, hydropower systems, traffic tunnels or rock slope deformation and landslide hazards. The goal of this study is to better understand the current and past groundwater flow systems of the UNESCO World Heritage mountain ridge separating the great Aletsch glacier and the Rhone valley, considering climatic and glacier fluctuations during the Lateglacial and Holocene periods. This ridge is crossed by a hydropower bypass drift (Riederhornstollen) and is composed of fractured crystalline rocks overlain by various types of landslides and glacial deposits. Surface hydrology observations (fracture properties, groundwater seepage, spring lines and physico-chemical parameters) and hydropower drift inflow measurements contributed to the characterization of bedrock hydraulic conductivities and preferential groundwater pathways. Basic conceptual hydrogeological models were tested with observed drift inflows and the occurrence of springs using free-surface, variably saturated, vertical 2D groundwater flow models (using the code SEEP/W from GeoStudio 2007). Already simple two-layer models, representing profile sections orthogonal to the mountain ridge, provided useful results. Simulations show that differences in the occurrence of springs on each side of the mountain ridge are likely caused by the occurrence of glacial till (generating perched groundwater), the deep-seated sagging landslide mass, faults and asymmetric ridge topography, which together force the main groundwater flow direction to be oriented towards the Rhone valley, even from beyond the mountain ridge. Surprisingly, the most important springs (those with high discharge rates) are located at high elevations

Haematological status of wintering great tits (Parus major) along a metal pollution gradient

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Geens, Ann, E-mail: ann.geens@ua.ac.be [Department of Biology, University of Antwerp, Ethology, Universiteitsplein 1, B-2610 Antwerp (Belgium); Dauwe, Tom [Department of Biology, University of Antwerp, Ethology, Universiteitsplein 1, B-2610 Antwerp (Belgium); VITO, Boeretang 200, B-2400 Mol (Belgium); Bervoets, Lieven; Blust, Ronny [Department of Biology, University of Antwerp, Ecophysiology, Biochemistry and Toxicology, Groenenborgerlaan 171, B-2020 Antwerp (Belgium); Eens, Marcel [Department of Biology, University of Antwerp, Ethology, Universiteitsplein 1, B-2610 Antwerp (Belgium)

2010-02-01

In the long-term biomonitoring of wild populations inhabiting polluted areas, the use of non-destructive biomarkers as markers of condition is very important. We examined the possible effects of metal pollution on the haematological status of adult great tits (Parus major) along a well-established pollution gradient near a non-ferrous smelter in Belgium. We measured blood and feather metal concentrations and assessed the haematological status (amount of red blood cells, haemoglobin concentration, haematocrit, mean corpuscular volume and mean corpuscular haemoglobin) of adult great tits during winter at four study sites. Metal concentrations in blood and feathers indicated that cadmium and lead were the most important metals in the pollution gradient under study. Measurements of haematological parameters revealed that haemoglobin concentration, haematocrit, mean corpuscular volume and mean corpuscular haemoglobin were lower in great tits from the more polluted sites. These parameters were significantly negatively correlated with blood lead concentration. The amount of red blood cells, however, did not significantly differ among study sites. Our results indicate that the haematological status of great tits is negatively affected by metal pollution and may therefore be used as a successful biomarker for monitoring the negative impact of metal exposure in the wild.

Numerical simulation of volume-controlled mechanical ventilated respiratory system with 2 different lungs.

Science.gov (United States)

Shi, Yan; Zhang, Bolun; Cai, Maolin; Zhang, Xiaohua Douglas

2017-09-01

Mechanical ventilation is a key therapy for patients who cannot breathe adequately by themselves, and dynamics of mechanical ventilation system is of great significance for life support of patients. Recently, models of mechanical ventilated respiratory system with 1 lung are used to simulate the respiratory system of patients. However, humans have 2 lungs. When the respiratory characteristics of 2 lungs are different, a single-lung model cannot reflect real respiratory system. In this paper, to illustrate dynamic characteristics of mechanical ventilated respiratory system with 2 different lungs, we propose a mathematical model of mechanical ventilated respiratory system with 2 different lungs and conduct experiments to verify the model. Furthermore, we study the dynamics of mechanical ventilated respiratory system with 2 different lungs. This research study can be used for improving the efficiency and safety of volume-controlled mechanical ventilation system. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Comparison of surrogate models with different methods in ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

In this article, polynomial regression (PR), radial basis function artificial neural network (RBFANN), and kriging ..... 10 kriging models with different parameters were also obtained. ..... shapes using stochastic optimization methods and com-.

Individual and population-level impacts of an emerging poxvirus disease in a wild population of great tits.

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Shelly Lachish

Full Text Available Emerging infectious diseases of wildlife can have severe effects on host populations and constitute a pressing problem for biodiversity conservation. Paridae pox is an unusually severe form of avipoxvirus infection that has recently been identified as an emerging infectious disease particularly affecting an abundant songbird, the great tit (Parus major, in Great Britain. In this study, we study the invasion and establishment of Paridae pox in a long-term monitored population of wild great tits to (i quantify the impact of this novel pathogen on host fitness and (ii determine the potential threat it poses to population persistence. We show that Paridae pox significantly reduces the reproductive output of great tits by reducing the ability of parents to fledge young successfully and rear those young to independence. Our results also suggested that pathogen transmission from diseased parents to their offspring was possible, and that disease entails severe mortality costs for affected chicks. Application of multistate mark-recapture modelling showed that Paridae pox causes significant reductions to host survival, with particularly large effects observed for juvenile survival. Using an age-structured population model, we demonstrate that Paridae pox has the potential to reduce population growth rate, primarily through negative impacts on host survival rates. However, at currently observed prevalence, significant disease-induced population decline seems unlikely, although pox prevalence may be underestimated if capture probability of diseased individuals is low. Despite this, because pox-affected model populations exhibited lower average growth rates, this emerging infectious disease has the potential to reduce the resilience of populations to other environmental factors that reduce population size.

What Makes Hydrologic Models Differ? Using SUMMA to Systematically Explore Model Uncertainty and Error

Science.gov (United States)

Bennett, A.; Nijssen, B.; Chegwidden, O.; Wood, A.; Clark, M. P.

2017-12-01

Model intercomparison experiments have been conducted to quantify the variability introduced during the model development process, but have had limited success in identifying the sources of this model variability. The Structure for Unifying Multiple Modeling Alternatives (SUMMA) has been developed as a framework which defines a general set of conservation equations for mass and energy as well as a common core of numerical solvers along with the ability to set options for choosing between different spatial discretizations and flux parameterizations. SUMMA can be thought of as a framework for implementing meta-models which allows for the investigation of the impacts of decisions made during the model development process. Through this flexibility we develop a hierarchy of definitions which allows for models to be compared to one another. This vocabulary allows us to define the notion of weak equivalence between model instantiations. Through this weak equivalence we develop the concept of model mimicry, which can be used to investigate the introduction of uncertainty and error during the modeling process as well as provide a framework for identifying modeling decisions which may complement or negate one another. We instantiate SUMMA instances that mimic the behaviors of the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model and the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) by choosing modeling decisions which are implemented in each model. We compare runs from these models and their corresponding mimics across the Columbia River Basin located in the Pacific Northwest of the United States and Canada. From these comparisons, we are able to determine the extent to which model implementation has an effect on the results, as well as determine the changes in sensitivity of parameters due to these implementation differences. By examining these changes in results and sensitivities we can attempt to postulate changes in the modeling decisions which may provide better estimation of

Implicit finite-difference simulations of seismic wave propagation

KAUST Repository

Chu, Chunlei; Stoffa, Paul L.

2012-01-01

We propose a new finite-difference modeling method, implicit both in space and in time, for the scalar wave equation. We use a three-level implicit splitting time integration method for the temporal derivative and implicit finite-difference operators of arbitrary order for the spatial derivatives. Both the implicit splitting time integration method and the implicit spatial finite-difference operators require solving systems of linear equations. We show that it is possible to merge these two sets of linear systems, one from implicit temporal discretizations and the other from implicit spatial discretizations, to reduce the amount of computations to develop a highly efficient and accurate seismic modeling algorithm. We give the complete derivations of the implicit splitting time integration method and the implicit spatial finite-difference operators, and present the resulting discretized formulas for the scalar wave equation. We conduct a thorough numerical analysis on grid dispersions of this new implicit modeling method. We show that implicit spatial finite-difference operators greatly improve the accuracy of the implicit splitting time integration simulation results with only a slight increase in computational time, compared with explicit spatial finite-difference operators. We further verify this conclusion by both 2D and 3D numerical examples. © 2012 Society of Exploration Geophysicists.