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Sample records for models demographic consequences

  1. CONSEQUENCES OF THE DEMOGRAPHIC CRISIS

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    LIVIU RADU

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Major dysfunctionalities can arise from the demographic decline, both on a social level and from the perspective of the economic-financial evolution of the world’s states. The obvious aging of the industrialized states’ population overlapping the import of cheap workforce in the developing countries can start mutations whose consequences are somewhat predictable but discouraging. An accelerated urbanization of the states is foreseen, as well as the decrease of birthrates, negative external migration, increase of mortality and its stagnation in a larger value than that of the birthrate, and not least the population’s aging will hinder a part of the developing countries to sustain a high rhythm of long-term economical increase. The socialeconomic consequences will be reflected in the labor market, the householders’ amount of income as well as in the education’s level. All of these aspects call for a rethinking of the public politics, especially of the social insurance’s system and of the education, a reorientation of the economy based on the increase of specializing in production and productivity, as well as a financial stability unburdened by the politics’ interference in the business environment.

  2. Demographic and medical consequences of the postponement of parenthood

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schmidt, Lone; Sobotka, Tomas; Bentzen, Janne Gasseholm;

    2012-01-01

    of involuntary childlessness and smaller families than desired due to increased infertility and fetal death with higher female and male age. For women, the increased risk of prolonged TTP, infertility, spontaneous abortions, ectopic pregnancies and trisomy 21 starts at around 30 years of age with a more......BACKGROUND Across the developed world couples are postponing parenthood. This review assesses the consequences of delayed family formation from a demographic and medical perspective. One main focus is on the quantitative importance of pregnancy postponement. METHODS Medical and social science...... databases were searched for publications on relevant subjects such as delayed parenthood, female and male age, fertility, infertility, time to pregnancy (TTP), fetal death, outcome of medically assisted reproduction (MAR) and mental well-being. RESULTS Postponement of parenthood is linked to a higher rate...

  3. Demographic Modelling in Weed Biocontrol

    Science.gov (United States)

    Demographic matrix modeling of plant populations can be a powerful tool to identify key life stage transitions that contribute the most to population growth of an invasive plant and hence should be targeted for disruption. Therefore, this approach has the potential to guide the pre-release selection...

  4. The Gender and Intergenerational Consequences of the Demographic Dividend

    OpenAIRE

    2009-01-01

    The demographic transition changes the age composition of a population, potentially affecting resource allocation at the household level and exerting general equilibrium effects at the aggregate level. If age profiles of income, consumption, and savings were stable and estimable for the entire population, they might imply how the demographic transition would affect national savings rates, but there is little agreement on the impact of age composition. These age profiles differ by gender and a...

  5. The demographic consequences of mutualism: ants increase host-plant fruit production but not population growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ford, Kevin R; Ness, Joshua H; Bronstein, Judith L; Morris, William F

    2015-10-01

    The impact of mutualists on a partner's demography depends on how they affect the partner's multiple vital rates and how those vital rates, in turn, affect population growth. However, mutualism studies rarely measure effects on multiple vital rates or integrate them to assess the ultimate impact on population growth. We used vital rate data, population models and simulations of long-term population dynamics to quantify the demographic impact of a guild of ant species on the plant Ferocactus wislizeni. The ants feed at the plant's extrafloral nectaries and attack herbivores attempting to consume reproductive organs. Ant-guarded plants produced significantly more fruit, but ants had no significant effect on individual growth or survival. After integrating ant effects across these vital rates, we found that projected population growth was not significantly different between unguarded and ant-guarded plants because population growth was only weakly influenced by differences in fruit production (though strongly influenced by differences in individual growth and survival). However, simulations showed that ants could positively affect long-term plant population dynamics through services provided during rare but important events (herbivore outbreaks that reduce survival or years of high seedling recruitment associated with abundant precipitation). Thus, in this seemingly clear example of mutualism, the interaction may actually yield no clear benefit to plant population growth, or if it does, may only do so through the actions of the ants during rare events. These insights demonstrate the value of taking a demographic approach to studying the consequences of mutualism.

  6. Demographic consequences of nest box use for Red-footed Falcons Falco vespertinus in Central Asia

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    Bragin, Evgeny A.; Bragin, Alexander E.; Katzner, Todd

    2017-01-01

    Nest box programs are frequently implemented for the conservation of cavity-nesting birds, but their effectiveness is rarely evaluated in comparison to birds not using nest boxes. In the European Palearctic, Red-footed Falcon Falco vespertinus populations are both of high conservation concern and are strongly associated with nest box programs in heavily managed landscapes. We used a 21-year monitoring dataset collected on 753 nesting attempts by Red-footed Falcons in unmanaged natural or semi-natural habitats to provide basic information on this poorly known species; to evaluate long-term demographic trends; and to evaluate response of demographic parameters of Red-footed Falcons to environmental factors including use of nest boxes. We observed significant differences among years in laying date, offspring loss, and numbers of fledglings produced, but not in egg production. Of these four parameters, offspring loss and, to a lesser extent, number of fledglings exhibited directional trends over time. Variation in laying date and in numbers of eggs were not well explained by any one model, but instead by combinations of models, each with informative terms for nest type. Nevertheless, laying in nest boxes occurred 2.10 ± 0.70 days earlier than in natural nests. In contrast, variation in both offspring loss and numbers of fledglings produced were fairly well explained by a single model including terms for nest type, nest location, and an interaction between the two parameters (65% and 81% model weights respectively), with highest offspring loss in nest boxes on forest edges. Because, for other species, earlier laying dates are associated with more fit individuals, this interaction highlighted a possible ecological trap, whereby birds using nest boxes on forest edges lay eggs earlier but suffer greater offspring loss and produce lower numbers of fledglings than do those in other nesting settings. If nest boxes increase offspring loss for Red-footed Falcons in heavily

  7. Do Demographic Variables Moderate the Relationship Between Job Burnout and its Consequences?

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    Hasan Zarei Matin

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Many studies have already been conducted to understand the various dimensions of the burnout. The purpose of the present research is to investigate the moderating effect of demographic variables on the relationship between job burnout and its consequences among the staff of an Iranian public sector company. In this research, job burnout is considered as independent variable; organizational commitment, intention to leave and the employees‟ job satisfaction are dependent variables; and the age, gender, marital status and educational level are moderating variables. The results of this study show that firstly, the job burnout of employees in organizations leads to the decrease of organizational commitment and job satisfaction, and the increase of intention to leave; secondly, the demographic variables in this research don't affect on the relationship of job burnout with its consequences.

  8. Entropy Based Modelling for Estimating Demographic Trends.

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    Guoqi Li

    Full Text Available In this paper, an entropy-based method is proposed to forecast the demographical changes of countries. We formulate the estimation of future demographical profiles as a constrained optimization problem, anchored on the empirically validated assumption that the entropy of age distribution is increasing in time. The procedure of the proposed method involves three stages, namely: 1 Prediction of the age distribution of a country's population based on an "age-structured population model"; 2 Estimation the age distribution of each individual household size with an entropy-based formulation based on an "individual household size model"; and 3 Estimation the number of each household size based on a "total household size model". The last stage is achieved by projecting the age distribution of the country's population (obtained in stage 1 onto the age distributions of individual household sizes (obtained in stage 2. The effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated by feeding real world data, and it is general and versatile enough to be extended to other time dependent demographic variables.

  9. Demographic Consequences of Poison-Related Mortality in a Threatened Bird of Prey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tenan, Simone; Adrover, Jaume; Muñoz Navarro, Antoni; Sergio, Fabrizio; Tavecchia, Giacomo

    2012-01-01

    Evidence for decline or threat of wild populations typically comes from multiple sources and methods that allow optimal integration of the available information, representing a major advance in planning management actions. We used integrated population modelling and perturbation analyses to assess the demographic consequences of the illegal use of poison for an insular population of Red Kites, Milvus milvus. We first pooled into a single statistical framework the annual census of breeding pairs, the available individual-based data, the average productivity and the number of birds admitted annually to the local rehabilitation centre. By combining these four types of information we were able to increase estimate precision and to obtain an estimate of the proportion of breeding adults, an important parameter that was not directly measured in the field and that is often difficult to assess. Subsequently, we used perturbation analyses to measure the expected change in the population growth rate due to a change in poison-related mortality. We found that poison accounted for 0.43 to 0.76 of the total mortality, for yearlings and older birds, respectively. Results from the deterministic population model indicated that this mortality suppressed the population growth rate by 20%. Despite this, the population was estimated to increase, albeit slowly. This positive trend was likely maintained by a very high productivity (1.83 fledglings per breeding pair) possibly promoted by supplementary feeding, a situation which is likely to be common to many large obligate or facultative European scavengers. Under this hypothetical scenario of double societal costs (poisoning of a threatened species and feeding programs), increasing poison control would help to lower the public cost of maintaining supplementary feeding stations. PMID:23155464

  10. Demographic consequences of poison-related mortality in a threatened bird of prey.

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    Simone Tenan

    Full Text Available Evidence for decline or threat of wild populations typically comes from multiple sources and methods that allow optimal integration of the available information, representing a major advance in planning management actions. We used integrated population modelling and perturbation analyses to assess the demographic consequences of the illegal use of poison for an insular population of Red Kites, Milvus milvus. We first pooled into a single statistical framework the annual census of breeding pairs, the available individual-based data, the average productivity and the number of birds admitted annually to the local rehabilitation centre. By combining these four types of information we were able to increase estimate precision and to obtain an estimate of the proportion of breeding adults, an important parameter that was not directly measured in the field and that is often difficult to assess. Subsequently, we used perturbation analyses to measure the expected change in the population growth rate due to a change in poison-related mortality. We found that poison accounted for 0.43 to 0.76 of the total mortality, for yearlings and older birds, respectively. Results from the deterministic population model indicated that this mortality suppressed the population growth rate by 20%. Despite this, the population was estimated to increase, albeit slowly. This positive trend was likely maintained by a very high productivity (1.83 fledglings per breeding pair possibly promoted by supplementary feeding, a situation which is likely to be common to many large obligate or facultative European scavengers. Under this hypothetical scenario of double societal costs (poisoning of a threatened species and feeding programs, increasing poison control would help to lower the public cost of maintaining supplementary feeding stations.

  11. [Economic adjustment and its demographic consequences in Latin America: an overview].

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    Bajraj, R F; Bravo, J H

    1994-06-01

    This work reviews the available literature on short and medium term demographic responses to the economic adjustment processes occurring in Latin America during the 1980s. The first section describes the immediate causes and scope of the economic crisis of the 1980s in Latin America and the measures taken to correct imbalances. An external crisis rendered the current accounts deficit of the early 1980s no longer sustainable, interest rates and commercial conditions deteriorated, and a recessive adjustment of enormous magnitude occurred. The term "adjustment" covers a wide and varied array of economic changes, fiscal and social policy reforms, and changes in international commerce. The structural adjustment measures caused deterioration in investment and in equity. Real purchasing power declined more than per capita product in most Latin American countries between 1980 and 1990. Primary income distribution underwent regressive changes. In most cases the deterioration was not compensated by social spending. As a result of the fiscal adjustment and reduced public sector spending, per capita investment in health and education was less in 1990 than in 1980 in almost all countries. The demographic consequences of the adjustment processes are difficult to gauge precisely because the experiences of individual countries were heterogeneous and because no single definition of adjustment exists that would serve as a point of reference for comparison of situations without adjustment or with different types of adjustment. Nevertheless, some studies have attempted to specify terms of comparison. Some have compared conditions before the crisis or adjustments with conditions later, and others have analyzed short term fluctuations in demographic variables from their medium or long term trends. Such works suggest that nuptiality is the variable responding most intensely, systematically, and immediately to short term economic fluctuations. Fertility also appears to have responded

  12. Demographic Consequences of Gender Discrimination in China: Simulation Analysis of Policy Options

    OpenAIRE

    Quanbao, Jiang; Shuzhuo, Li; Marcus W., Feldman

    2011-01-01

    The large number of missing females in China, a consequence of gender discrimination, is having and will continue to have a profound effect on the country's population development. In this paper, we analyze the causes of this gender discrimination in terms of institutions, culture and, economy, and suggest public policies that might help eliminate gender discrimination. Using a population simulation model, we study the effect of public policies on the sex ratio at birth and excess female chil...

  13. Demographic consequences of heavy metals and persistent organic pollutants in a vulnerable long-lived bird, the wandering albatross

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goutte, Aurélie; Barbraud, Christophe; Meillère, Alizée; Carravieri, Alice; Bustamante, Paco; Labadie, Pierre; Budzinski, Hélène; Delord, Karine; Cherel, Yves; Weimerskirch, Henri; Chastel, Olivier

    2014-01-01

    Seabirds are top predators of the marine environment that accumulate contaminants over a long life-span. Chronic exposure to pollutants is thought to compromise survival rate and long-term reproductive outputs in these long-lived organisms, thus inducing population decline. However, the demographic consequences of contaminant exposure are largely theoretical because of the dearth of long-term datasets. This study aims to test whether adult survival rate, return to the colony and long-term breeding performance were related to blood mercury (Hg), cadmium (Cd) and persistent organic pollutants (POPs), by using a capture–mark–recapture dataset on the vulnerable wandering albatross Diomedea exulans. We did not find evidence for any effect of contaminants on adult survival probability. However, blood Hg and POPs negatively impacted long-term breeding probability, hatching and fledging probabilities. The proximate mechanisms underlying these deleterious effects are likely multifaceted, through physiological perturbations and interactions with reproductive costs. Using matrix population models, we projected a demographic decline in response to an increase in Hg or POPs concentrations. This decline in population growth rate could be exacerbated by other anthropogenic perturbations, such as climate change, disease and fishery bycatch. This study gives a new dimension to the overall picture of environmental threats to wildlife populations. PMID:24920477

  14. Demographic consequences of heavy metals and persistent organic pollutants in a vulnerable long-lived bird, the wandering albatross.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goutte, Aurélie; Barbraud, Christophe; Meillère, Alizée; Carravieri, Alice; Bustamante, Paco; Labadie, Pierre; Budzinski, Hélène; Delord, Karine; Cherel, Yves; Weimerskirch, Henri; Chastel, Olivier

    2014-07-22

    Seabirds are top predators of the marine environment that accumulate contaminants over a long life-span. Chronic exposure to pollutants is thought to compromise survival rate and long-term reproductive outputs in these long-lived organisms, thus inducing population decline. However, the demographic consequences of contaminant exposure are largely theoretical because of the dearth of long-term datasets. This study aims to test whether adult survival rate, return to the colony and long-term breeding performance were related to blood mercury (Hg), cadmium (Cd) and persistent organic pollutants (POPs), by using a capture-mark-recapture dataset on the vulnerable wandering albatross Diomedea exulans. We did not find evidence for any effect of contaminants on adult survival probability. However, blood Hg and POPs negatively impacted long-term breeding probability, hatching and fledging probabilities. The proximate mechanisms underlying these deleterious effects are likely multifaceted, through physiological perturbations and interactions with reproductive costs. Using matrix population models, we projected a demographic decline in response to an increase in Hg or POPs concentrations. This decline in population growth rate could be exacerbated by other anthropogenic perturbations, such as climate change, disease and fishery bycatch. This study gives a new dimension to the overall picture of environmental threats to wildlife populations.

  15. Emigration from Croatia from 1900 to 2001: Demographic Consequences of the Centuries-Old Process

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    Ivo Nejašmić

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available In the period between 1900 and 2001, about 2.3 million people emigrated from the present-day territory of the Republic of Croatia. Immigration mitigated the outflow of “human capital”; it replaced almost a half of the total emigrated contingent. The migration “balance deficit” took 33.4% of the average population number, or 52% of the total natural change (increase. Only a few countries have had such a significant population loss due to emigration. Total Croatian population losses in the observed period amount to about 1.89 million people, and some categories have the following share: negative emigration balance 63.3%, war losses 32.7% and epidemics 4.0%. If there were no emigration (i.e. in a hypothetical “closed population”, Croatia would have at least 6.22 million people in 2001 or 40.1% more than the registered number. The long-term (delayed effects of emigration have also come to the fore. The emigration of the most vital age groups has led to the narrowing of fertile cohorts, and consequently to a decrease in birth rates and increased mortality. In the early 1990s, negative natural change was recorded. Several factors affected biological (natural depopulation, but emigration took the first place. Continuous and strong emigration, and negative net migration respectively, is one of the main reasons underlying the fact that Croatia belongs to the group of ten European countries with the oldest population. After the 19th century, in which the population of Croatia doubled, and the 20th century, when the country saw weak growth (40.4%, the 21st century will be marked by depopulation. A highly negative migration balance from the analyzed centennial period has an important role among many factors having impact on such Croatian demographic perspective.

  16. Demographic consequences of inbreeding and outbreeding in Arnica montana: A field experiment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luijten, S.H.; Kery, M.; Oostermeijer, J.G.B.; Den, Nijs H.J.C.M.

    2002-01-01

    1. The genetic constitution of populations may significantly affect demography. Founder populations or isolated remnants may show inbreeding depression, while established populations can be strongly adapted to the local environment. Gene exchange between populations can lead to better performance if heterozygosity levels are restored (heterosis), or to reduced performance if coadapted gene complexes are disrupted (outbreeding depression). 2. Five populations of the self-incompatible perennial Arnica montana (Asteraceae) were analysed for the demographic consequences of inbreeding and of intra- and interpopulation outcrossing, using both small and large populations as donors for the latter. We analysed seed production and seed weight and monitored growth, survival and flowering of offspring introduced as seeds and as 4-week-old seedlings in a 4-year field experiment. 3. Reduced seed set after selfing was probably due to the self-incompatibility system rather than to inbreeding depression. There was a significant increase for seed set after interpopulation crosses, which resulted from the alleviation of low mate availability in one of the small populations. 4. Significant inbreeding depression was observed for growth rates of plants introduced as seedlings. We found significant heterosis for flowering probability of plants introduced as seeds, but for plants introduced as seedlings, heterosis for seedling size and flowering probability was only marginally significant. Outbreeding depression was not observed. 5. The results of this study are important for reinforcement measures in small, remnant populations. Significant differences among populations for all measured fitness components suggest that reinforcement is best achieved using material from several populations. 6. The observed higher survival of seedlings as compared with seeds suggests that it is better to plant individuals than to sow. Sowing, however, is easier and cheaper, and was more likely to eliminate

  17. Consequences of Enduring Low Fertility – A German Case StudyDemographic Projections and Implications for Different Policy Fields

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    Martin Bujard

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Der Originalbeitrag in deutscher Sprache ist verfügbar unter: Bd. 40 (2015: Ausgewählte deutsche Beiträge.Compared to all other countries in the world, Germany has been a “low-fertility country” for a longer period: the total fertility rate has been below 1.5 for four decades. Being the first to experience this development, a case study of Germany allows analysing the consequences of an enduring birth decline. In Germany, low fertility is also an increasingly big issue in politics as well as science, especially due to its extensive consequences on several policy fields that already become visible. However, the assessment of the consequences differs tremendously when it comes either to its intensity or to the question whether ageing or rather population decline is the more severe problem. Differentiated by these two processes, this article combines demographic analysis with the assessment of the consequences for different policy fields such as pensions, health, the economy, the labour market, culture, the EU, international relations and the party system.For all these policy fields, the consequences are serious, and partly ambivalent but overall negative. The occurrence of the consequences and the different policy options how to deal with these consequences differ considerably between the policy fields. Ageing is a more severe problem than shrinking, because the severe changes in the age structure in the social security system that will take place until 2040 apply to most Germans and are inevitable. On the other hand, the population decline can still be avoided demographically and does not affect all inhabitants negatively. Regarding the consequences of a declining population, one has to differentiate between an individual and a national perspective. National consequences are rather negative due to a decline of international influence and power, especially within the European Union. The study also demonstrates that the long

  18. Demographic consequences of greater clonal than sexual reproduction in Dicentra canadensis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Chia-Hua; Miriti, Maria N; Goodell, Karen

    2016-06-01

    Clonality is a widespread life history trait in flowering plants that may be essential for population persistence, especially in environments where sexual reproduction is unpredictable. Frequent clonal reproduction, however, could hinder sexual reproduction by spatially aggregating ramets that compete with seedlings and reduce inter-genet pollination. Nevertheless, the role of clonality in relation to variable sexual reproduction in population dynamics is often overlooked. We combined population matrix models and pollination experiments to compare the demographic contributions of clonal and sexual reproduction in three Dicentra canadensis populations, one in a well-forested landscape and two in isolated forest remnants. We constructed stage-based transition matrices from 3 years of census data to evaluate annual population growth rates, λ. We used loop analysis to evaluate the relative contribution of different reproductive pathways to λ. Despite strong temporal and spatial variation in seed set, populations generally showed stable growth rates. Although we detected some pollen limitation of seed set, manipulative pollination treatments did not affect population growth rates. Clonal reproduction contributed significantly more than sexual reproduction to population growth in the forest remnants. Only at the well-forested site did sexual reproduction contribute as much as clonal reproduction to population growth. Flowering plants were more likely to transition to a smaller size class with reduced reproductive potential in the following year than similarly sized nonflowering plants, suggesting energy trade-offs between sexual and clonal reproduction at the individual level. Seed production had negligible effects on growth and tuber production of individual plants. Our results demonstrate that clonal reproduction is vital for population persistence in a system where sexual reproduction is unpredictable. The bias toward clonality may be driven by low fitness returns

  19. [Emigration from Burkina Faso from 1960 to 1985. Analysis of demographic and socioeconomic consequences].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Some, P

    1991-04-01

    Labor migration from Burkina Faso did not end when direct recruitment of workers by planters from the Ivory Coast was terminated at independence in 1960. Methodological problems and differences in the objectives of the 1975 and 1985 censuses and the 1960-61 sample survey have limited the usefulness of existing data on migration. Migrants from Burkina Faso have always been unskilled workers in search of wage employment. The migrant population in 1960-61 was estimated at 152,442, of whom 90% were males primarily under 40 years old. The proportion of women and children increased from 8.2% in 1961 to 12.8% in 1973. Between the 1975 and 1985 censuses, there were few significant changes in the dominant characteristics of migrants. 80% of the 808,000 residents living abroad according to official sources were male and 80% were aged 15-40 years. 53% of migrants according to a 1975 study were under 20 years old at the 1st departure, and most were single. At the national level, labor migration is viewed as a necessary evil that should continue as long as possible in the absence of employment opportunities at home. After independence in 1960, 56.6% of migrants from Burkina Faso went to the Ivory Coast, 31.3% to Ghana, and 3.9% to Mali. In 1975 and 1985 respectively, 74.4% and 91.2% went to the Ivory Coast and 11.8% and 8.8% to Ghana. The demographic consequences of migration in Burkina Faso include a lowering of the natural increase rate and a reduction of the economically active population amounting to about 16% between 1975-85. The disproportionate departure of men has left an increasing number of women in charge of agricultural operations. A strong current of return migration has also developed, including many children under 15. It was estimated in 1990 that half of migrants to the Ivory Coast receive professional training, with the other half exposed to new agricultural techniques and methods of organizing work. 87% of returning male migrants in 1985 went back to their

  20. Computational Modeling of Culture's Consequences

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hofstede, G.J.; Jonker, C.M.; Verwaart, T.

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents an approach to formalize the influence of culture on the decision functions of agents in social simulations. The key components are (a) a definition of the domain of study in the form of a decision model, (b) knowledge acquisition based on a dimensional theory of culture, resulti

  1. An age structured demographic model of technology

    CERN Document Server

    Mercure, J -F

    2013-01-01

    At the heart of technology transitions lie complex processes of technology choices. Understanding and planning sustainability transitions requires modelling work, which necessitates a theory of technology substitution. A theoretical model of technological change and turnover is presented, intended as a methodological paradigm shift from widely used conventional modelling approaches such as cost optimisation. It follows the tradition of evolutionary economics and evolutionary game theory, using ecological population growth dynamics to represent the evolution of technology populations in the marketplace, with substitutions taking place at the level of the decision-maker. Extended to use principles of human demography or the age structured evolution of species in interacting ecosystems, this theory is built from first principles, and through an appropriate approximation, reduces to a form identical to empirical models of technology diffusion common in the technology transitions literature. Using an age structure...

  2. Long-term demographic consequences of habitat fragmentation to a tropical understory bird community

    Science.gov (United States)

    Korfanta, N.M.; Newmark, W.D.; Kauffman, M.J.

    2012-01-01

    Tropical deforestation continues to cause population declines and local extinctions in centers of avian diversity and endemism. Although local species extinctions stem from reductions in demographic rates, little is known about how habitat fragmentation influences survival of tropical bird populations or the relative importance of survival and fecundity in ultimately shaping communities. We analyzed 22 years of mark-recapture data to assess how fragmentation influenced apparent survival, recruitment, and realized population growth rate within 22 forest understory bird species in the Usambara Mountains, Tanzania. This represents the first such effort, in either tropical or temperate systems, to characterize the effect of deforestation on avian survival across such a broad suite of species. Long-term demographic analysis of this suite of species experiencing the same fragmented environment revealed considerable variability in species' responses to fragmentation, in addition to general patterns that emerged from comparison among species. Across the understory bird community as a whole, we found significantly lower apparent survival and realized population growth rate in small fragments relative to large, demonstrating fragmentation effects to demographic rates long after habitat loss. Demographic rates were depressed across five feeding guilds, suggesting that fragmentation sensitivity was not limited to insectivores. Seniority analyses, together with a positive effect of fragmentation on recruitment, indicated that depressed apparent survival was the primary driver of population declines and observed extinctions. We also found a landscape effect, with lower vital rates in one mountain range relative to another, suggesting that fragmentation effects may add to other large-scale drivers of population decline. Overall, realized population growth rate (λ) estimates were < 1 for most species, suggesting that future population persistence even within large forest

  3. Long-term demographic consequences of habitat fragmentation to a tropical understory bird community.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Korfanta, Nicole M; Newmark, William D; Kauffman, Matthew J

    2012-12-01

    Tropical deforestation continues to cause population declines and local extinctions in centers of avian diversity and endemism. Although local species extinctions stem from reductions in demographic rates, little is known about how habitat fragmentation influences survival of tropical bird populations or the relative importance of survival and fecundity in ultimately shaping communities. We analyzed 22 years of mark-recapture data to assess how fragmentation influenced apparent survival, recruitment, and realized population growth rate within 22 forest understory bird species in the Usambara Mountains, Tanzania. This represents the first such effort, in either tropical or temperate systems, to characterize the effect of deforestation on avian survival across such a broad suite of species. Long-term demographic analysis of this suite of species experiencing the same fragmented environment revealed considerable variability in species' responses to fragmentation, in addition to general patterns that emerged from comparison among species. Across the understory bird community as a whole, we found significantly lower apparent survival and realized population growth rate in small fragments relative to large, demonstrating fragmentation effects to demographic rates long after habitat loss, Demographic rates were depressed across five feeding guilds, suggesting that fragmentation sensitivity was not limited to insectivores. Seniority analyses, together with a positive effect of fragmentation on recruitment, indicated that depressed apparent survival was the primary driver of population declines and observed extinctions. We also found a landscape effect, with lower vital rates in one mountain range relative to another, suggesting that fragmentation effects may add to other large-scale drivers of population decline. Overall, realized population growth rate (lambda) estimates were fragments, is uncertain in this biodiversity hotspot.

  4. Three demographic consequences of gender-specific behavior pattern: The case of Serbia

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    Šobot Ankica

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The focus point in this paper referes to three issues of demographic development in Serbia presented from the gender perspective. Feminization, mortality in men and low reproductive norms are analyzed as effects of relevant behavior of both sexes. This choice is the result of earlier analyses of gender socio-demographic characteristics as well as the researches of demographic phenomena from the perspective of gender roles and gender relations. The gender aspect, as a cognitive concept, implies the importance of the female and male behavior pattern in understanding demographic structures, processes and phenomena. The theoretical foundation was found in the anthropological character of contemporary demography which focuses on the individual’s behavior in the context of interactive relations with the concrete environment. In the context of a complex deterministic basis and interactive connection of various factors, gender roles and gender relations represent a relative segment of social dimension of various demographic issues. Feminization of the middle-aged and older population emphasizes the importance of female perspective, taking into consideration space diversity. Feminization is most intensive in Belgrade. Among the middle-aged women there is a higher proportion of tertiary educated and divorced, and less share of the economically independent, in relation to the remaining region of Central Serbia. As regards older women, irrespective of spatial distribution, widowhood, unfavorable education characteristics, lower economic activity and greater economic dependency are important matters. The issue of retirement has specific importance, and should be solved in the context of educated and socio-professional characteristics of women, in order to promote their social position and gender equality. A shorter life span of the male population requires recognizing specific mortality factors of the middle-aged and older males, in order to eliminate the

  5. Consequence Reasoning in Multilevel Flow Modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhang, Xinxin; Lind, Morten; Ravn, Ole

    2013-01-01

    Consequence reasoning is a major element for operation support system to assess the plant situations. The purpose of this paper is to elaborate how Multilevel Flow Models can be used to reason about consequences of disturbances in complex engineering systems. MFM is a modelling methodology...... for representing process knowledge for complex systems. It represents the system by using means-end and part-whole decompositions, and describes not only the purposes and functions of the system but also the causal relations between them. Thus MFM is a tool for causal reasoning. The paper introduces MFM modelling...... syntax and gives detailed reasoning formulas for consequence reasoning. The reasoning formulas offers basis for developing rule-based system to perform consequence reasoning based on MFM, which can be used for alarm design, risk monitoring, and supervision and operation support system design....

  6. Hyperstate matrix models : extending demographic state spaces to higher dimensions

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    Roth, G.; Caswell, H.

    2016-01-01

    1. Demographic models describe population dynamics in terms of the movement of individuals among states (e.g. size, age, developmental stage, parity, frailty, physiological condition). Matrix population models originally classified individuals by a single characteristic. This was enlarged to two cha

  7. Demographic model of the Neolithic transition in Central Europe

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    Patrik Galeta

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Several recent lines of evidence indicate more intensive contact between LBK farmers and indigenous foragers in Central Europe (5600–5400 calBC. Strong continuity has been identified between Mesolithic and Neolithic material cultures; faunal assemblages, and isotopic analyses of diet have revealed a greater role of hunting in LBK communities; genetic analyses have suggested that the modern Central European gene pool is mainly of Palaeolithic origin. Surprisingly little attention has been paid to demographic aspects of the Neolithic transition. In our study, demographic simulations were performed to assess the demographic conditions that would allow LBK farmers to spread across central Europe without any admixture with Mesolithic foragers. We constructed a stochastic demographic model of changes in farming population size. Model parameters were constrained by data from human demography, archaeology, and human ecology. Our results indicate that the establishment of farming communities in Central Europe without an admixture with foragers was highly improbable. The demographic conditions necessary for colonization were beyond the potential of the Neolithic population. Our study supports the integrationists’ view of the Neolithic transition in Central Europe.

  8. [The consequences of the demographic revolution and of the aging of society: restructuring the age groups and modifying intergenerational relations].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loriaux, M

    1995-01-01

    The consequences of demographic aging in developed societies are examined. The author notes that "demographic aging has intensified over the last decades, bringing with it a significant modification in relationships between age groups and the sexes.... These changes in demographic structures bring with them the reorganization in intergenerational relations, the most spectacular instance of which...[is] the coexistence at the same time and in the same place of four or five generations of direct descendants." The author develops the hypothesis that a new attitude toward old age is needed in which "the social status of the elderly must be reinstated, and everything must be brought into play to encourage the integration of different age groups and intergenerational solidarity, so as to arrive in the best possible conditions at what [can be termed] the 'era of old age'...which will accompany the coming of the post-industrial society with its orientation toward the mass production of leisure and of services." (SUMMARY IN ENG AND SPA) excerpt

  9. Demographic consequences of migratory stopover: linking red knot survival to horseshoe crab spawning abundance

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGowan, Conor P.; Hines, James E.; Nichols, James D.; Lyons, James E.; Smith, David; Kalasz, Kevin S.; Niles, Lawrence J.; Dey, Amanda D.; Clark, Nigel A.; Atkinson, Philip W.; Minton, Clive D.T.; Kendall, William

    2011-01-01

    Understanding how events during one period of the annual cycle carry over to affect survival and other fitness components in other periods is essential to understanding migratory bird demography and conservation needs. Previous research has suggested that western Atlantic red knot (Calidris canutus rufa) populations are greatly affected by horseshoe crab (Limulus polyphemus) egg availability at Delaware Bay stopover sites during their spring northward migration. We present a mass-based multistate, capturerecapture/resighting model linking (1) red knot stopover mass gain to horseshoe crab spawning abundance and (2) subsequent apparent annual survival to mass state at the time of departure from the Delaware Bay stopover area. The model and analysis use capture-recapture/resighting data with over 16,000 individual captures and 13,000 resightings collected in Delaware Bay over a 12 year period from 1997–2008, and the results are used to evaluate the central management hypothesis that red knot populations can be influenced by horseshoe crab harvest regulations as part of a larger adaptive management effort. Model selection statistics showed support for a positive relationship between horseshoe crab spawning abundance during the stopover and the probability of red knots gaining mass (parameter coefficient from the top model b = 1.71, SE = 0.46). Our analyses also supported the link between red knot mass and apparent annual survival, although average estimates for the two mass classes differed only slightly. The addition of arctic snow depth as a covariate influencing apparent survival improved the fit of the data to the models (parameter coefficient from the top model b = 0.50, SE = 0.08). Our results indicate that managing horseshoe crab resources in the Delaware Bay has the potential to improve red knot population status.

  10. The demographic consequences of mutualism: ants increase host-plant fruit production but not population growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kevin Ford; Joshua H. Ness; Judith L. Bronstein; William F. Morris

    2015-01-01

    The impact of mutualists on a partner’s demography depends on how they affect the partner’s multiple vital rates and how those vital rates, in turn, affect population growth. However, mutualism studies rarely measure effects on multiple vital rates or integrate them to assess the ultimate impact on population growth. We used vital rate data, population models and...

  11. Consequences of extreme life history traits on population persistence: do short-lived gobies face demographic bottlenecks?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lefèvre, Carine D.; Nash, Kirsty L.; González-Cabello, Alonso; Bellwood, David R.

    2016-06-01

    The majority of coral reef goby species are short-lived, with some highly abundant species living less than 100 d. To understand the role and consequences of this extreme life history in shaping coral reef fish populations, we quantitatively documented the structure of small reef fish populations over a 26-month period (>14 short-lived fish generations) at an inshore reef on the Great Barrier Reef, Australia. Most species with life spans >1 yr, such as pomacentrids, exhibited a peak in recruitment during the austral summer, driving seasonal changes in the small fish community composition. In contrast, there were no clear changes in goby community composition, despite the abundance of short-lived, high turnover species. Species of Eviota, the most abundant gobiid genus observed, showed remarkably similar demographic profiles year-round, with consistent densities of adults as well as recently recruited juveniles. Our results demonstrate ongoing recruitment of these small cryptic fishes, which appears to compensate for an exceptionally short life span on the reef. Our results suggest that gobiid populations are able to overcome demographic limitations, and by maintaining reproduction, larval survival and recruitment throughout the year, they may avoid population bottlenecks. These findings also underline the potential trophodynamic importance of these small species; because of this constant turnover, Eviota species and other short-lived fishes may be particularly valuable contributors to the flow of energy on coral reefs, underpinning the year-round trophic structure.

  12. Employee adiposity and incivility: establishing a link and identifying demographic moderators and negative consequences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sliter, Katherine A; Sliter, Michael T; Withrow, Scott A; Jex, Steve M

    2012-10-01

    The prevalence of increased adiposity among employees in the American workplace has resulted in significant economic costs to organizations. Unfortunately, relatively little research has examined the effects of excess adiposity on employees themselves. As a step toward remedying this, the current study examined a previously unknown link between adiposity and incivility, and how this might impact employee burnout and withdrawal. A student sample was used to initially establish a link between incivility and adiposity, and an applied sample of employees from across the United States was used to more fully test the relationships among incivility, adiposity, burnout, and withdrawal. Finally, the moderating effects of sex and race on these relationships were examined. Preliminary data from 341 student employees revealed that being overly adipose was related to greater reports of workplace incivility, with the effect strongest for those classified as obese. An interaction between sex and adiposity was also found, as well as a three-way interaction among sex, race, and adiposity. These relationships were replicated using a nationwide sample of 528 full-time employees. An interaction between race and adiposity was also found in this second sample. Finally, a model was tested in which incivility was shown to partially mediate the positive relationship between adiposity and the outcome of withdrawal, with both sex and race acting as moderators. Theoretical and practical implications of the findings and future directions are discussed.

  13. Analytical properties of a three-compartmental dynamical demographic model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Postnikov, E. B.

    2015-07-01

    The three-compartmental demographic model by Korotaeyv-Malkov-Khaltourina, connecting population size, economic surplus, and education level, is considered from the point of view of dynamical systems theory. It is shown that there exist two integrals of motion, which enables the system to be reduced to one nonlinear ordinary differential equation. The study of its structure provides analytical criteria for the dominance ranges of the dynamics of Malthus and Kremer. Additionally, the particular ranges of parameters enable the derived general ordinary differential equations to be reduced to the models of Gompertz and Thoularis-Wallace.

  14. Environmental versus demographic variability in stochastic predator-prey models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dobramysl, U.; Täuber, U. C.

    2013-10-01

    In contrast to the neutral population cycles of the deterministic mean-field Lotka-Volterra rate equations, including spatial structure and stochastic noise in models for predator-prey interactions yields complex spatio-temporal structures associated with long-lived erratic population oscillations. Environmental variability in the form of quenched spatial randomness in the predation rates results in more localized activity patches. Our previous study showed that population fluctuations in rare favorable regions in turn cause a remarkable increase in the asymptotic densities of both predators and prey. Very intriguing features are found when variable interaction rates are affixed to individual particles rather than lattice sites. Stochastic dynamics with demographic variability in conjunction with inheritable predation efficiencies generate non-trivial time evolution for the predation rate distributions, yet with overall essentially neutral optimization.

  15. Empirical Succession Mapping and Data Assimilation to Constrain Demographic Processes in an Ecosystem Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelly, R.; Andrews, T.; Dietze, M.

    2015-12-01

    Shifts in ecological communities in response to environmental change have implications for biodiversity, ecosystem function, and feedbacks to global climate change. Community composition is fundamentally the product of demography, but demographic processes are simplified or missing altogether in many ecosystem, Earth system, and species distribution models. This limitation arises in part because demographic data are noisy and difficult to synthesize. As a consequence, demographic processes are challenging to formulate in models in the first place, and to verify and constrain with data thereafter. Here, we used a novel analysis of the USFS Forest Inventory Analysis to improve the representation of demography in an ecosystem model. First, we created an Empirical Succession Mapping (ESM) based on ~1 million individual tree observations from the eastern U.S. to identify broad demographic patterns related to forest succession and disturbance. We used results from this analysis to guide reformulation of the Ecosystem Demography model (ED), an existing forest simulator with explicit tree demography. Results from the ESM reveal a coherent, cyclic pattern of change in temperate forest tree size and density over the eastern U.S. The ESM captures key ecological processes including succession, self-thinning, and gap-filling, and quantifies the typical trajectory of these processes as a function of tree size and stand density. Recruitment is most rapid in early-successional stands with low density and mean diameter, but slows as stand density increases; mean diameter increases until thinning promotes recruitment of small-diameter trees. Strikingly, the upper bound of size-density space that emerges in the ESM conforms closely to the self-thinning power law often observed in ecology. The ED model obeys this same overall size-density boundary, but overestimates plot-level growth, mortality, and fecundity rates, leading to unrealistic emergent demographic patterns. In particular

  16. Socio-demographic characteristics and psychosocial consequences of sickle cell disease: the case of patients in a public hospital in Ghana.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adzika, Vincent A; Glozah, Franklin N; Ayim-Aboagye, Desmond; Ahorlu, Collins S K

    2017-01-31

    Sickle cell disease (SCD) is of major public health concern globally, with majority of patients living in Africa. Despite its relevance, there is a dearth of research to determine the socio-demographic distribution and psychosocial impact of SCD in Ghana. The objective of this study was to examine the socio-demographic distribution and psychosocial consequences of SCD among patients in Ghana and to assess their quality of life and coping mechanisms. A cross-sectional research design was used that involved the completion of questionnaires on socio-demographic characteristics, quality of life, coping mechanisms, anxiety and depression. Participants were 387 male and female patients attending a sickle cell clinic in a public hospital. Results showed that majority of the patients were single, female, less than 39 years old and had attained secondary school level of education or less. Also, patients were more satisfied by the presence of love, friends and relatives as well as home, community and neighbourhood environment. While pains of varied nature and severity were the major reasons for attending hospital in SCD condition, going to the hospital as well as having faith in God was the most frequently reported mechanisms for coping with an unbearable SCD attacks. Results of multiple regression analysis showed that some socio-demographic and quality of life indicators had strong associations with anxiety and/or depression. It is recommended that a holistic intervention strategy incorporating psychosocial dimensions should be considered in the treatment and management of SCD.

  17. Antecedents and Consequences of Business Model Innovation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Waldner, Florian; Poetz, Marion; Grimpe, Christoph

    2015-01-01

    evidence seems to be confined to firm-level antecedents and pays little attention to the impact of industry structure. This study investigates how different stages of an industry’s life cycle and levels of industry competition affect firms’ business model innovation, and how such innovation translates...... performance. Our findings contribute to the ongoing dialog on the role of industry structure in business model innovation, and provide implications for the management of business model innovation.......What makes firms innovate their business models? Why do they engage in innovating how they create, deliver, and capture value? And how does such innovation translate into innovation performance? Despite the importance of business model innovation for achieving competitive advantage, existing...

  18. Demographic and Predeparture Factors Associated with Drinking and Alcohol-Related Consequences for College Students Completing Study Abroad Experiences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pedersen, Eric R.; Skidmore, Jessica R.; Aresi, Giovanni

    2014-01-01

    Objective: Study abroad students are at risk for increased and problematic drinking behavior. As few efforts have been made to examine this at-risk population, the authors predicted drinking and alcohol-related consequences abroad from predeparture and site-specific factors. Participants: The sample consisted of 339 students completing study…

  19. Demographic and Predeparture Factors Associated with Drinking and Alcohol-Related Consequences for College Students Completing Study Abroad Experiences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pedersen, Eric R.; Skidmore, Jessica R.; Aresi, Giovanni

    2014-01-01

    Objective: Study abroad students are at risk for increased and problematic drinking behavior. As few efforts have been made to examine this at-risk population, the authors predicted drinking and alcohol-related consequences abroad from predeparture and site-specific factors. Participants: The sample consisted of 339 students completing study…

  20. Modeling the Consequences of Proterozoic Oxygenation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bachan, A.; Kump, L. R.

    2013-12-01

    Abundant geologic data indicate an increase in atmospheric O2 levels starting at 2.4 Ga. Associated with this increase is a protracted interval of elevated δ13C known as the Lomagundi event. The elevated δ13C values have long been taken as evidence for elevated levels of organic carbon burial driving O2 production and oxygenation. Yet recently published data indicate that the increase in pO2, (as signaled by the disappearance of the MIF signature) occurs immediately below sediments with enriched δ13C values, in contrast to the expected order of events if organic carbon burial was the cause of O2 accumulation. A way to resolve this conundrum is if an initial rise in pO2 above the MIF threshold resulted in a positive feedback that led to enhanced Corg burial and a further increase in pO2. Here we utilize a numerical box model to explore the hypothesis that increased oxygenation (most likely via reduced O2 consumption) was the driver of elevated organic carbon burial, as manifested in enriched δ13C values. The numerical model contains boxes representing sedimentary and oceanic reservoirs, and tracks the fluxes and isotopic compositions of carbon, calcium, sulfate, and phosphate, as well as ocean chemistry parameters including pCO2, pH, and calcite saturation. We find that perturbing the model from a postulated Archean steady state with a step function in O2 input gives rise to a major increase in δ13C. The magnitude of the perturbation is nearly independent of the magnitude of increase in the O2 flux, but highly sensitive to the size of the sedimentary sulfide reservoir being oxidized. In the model, increased delivery of sulfate drives elevated organic carbon burial, as we allow the C:P burial ratio of organic carbon to respond to the O2-to-SO4 ratio. This feedback is based on the notion that in low-O2 / low-SO4 and high-O2 / high-SO4 oceanic states iron oxide precipitation acts as a strong sink for dissolved phosphate, while in the intermediate low-O2 / high-SO4

  1. Exploring Demographic Shifts: Aging and Migration Exploratory Group Model Specification & Simulation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pruyt, E.; Logtens, T.; Gijsbers, G.

    2011-01-01

    Plausible dynamics of a major demographic shift –(societal) aging– is studied in this paper, both from a global perspective and from a national perspective. Several economic, political and social implications of aging and aging-related demographic shifts are explored using System Dynamics models as

  2. Demographic consequences of disease in a habitat-forming seaweed and impacts on interactions between natural enemies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campbell, Alexandra H; Vergés, Adriana; Steinberg, Peter D

    2014-01-01

    Diseases affecting natural ecosystems are increasing in frequency and severity, but unless obviously catastrophic, the consequences of disease outbreaks are often overlooked, relative to other ecological processes (e.g., predation, competition). Disease can have profound effects on individuals and can also strongly influence interactions between infected hosts and their natural enemies. We investigated whether a novel bleaching disease affected the survival or performance of a habitat-forming red seaweed, Delisea pulchra. In addition, we investigated bidirectional, multipartite interactions between this seaweed host, its pathogens, and consumers. Although we found no negative impacts of disease on survival of D. pulchra, bleaching had substantial, negative consequences for affected individuals, including a dramatic drop in fecundity and a significant decrease in size. In the first direct demonstration of bacterial disease-mediated herbivory of seaweeds, herbivores generally preferred to consume bleached tissue in feeding trials, and we also found higher densities of herbivores on bleached than co-occurring, healthy algae at sites where herbivores were abundant. In a conceptually reciprocal test of the effects of herbivores on infection, we showed that simulated herbivory increased susceptibility to bleaching when algae were also exposed to cultures of a bacterial pathogen. Given the high proportions of D. pulchra affected by bleaching during peak periods, the impacts of this disease are likely to have important implications at the population level. This work highlights complex interactions between habitat-forming organisms and their natural enemies and further emphasizes the need to consider disease in ecological research.

  3. Forecasting societies' adaptive capacities through a demographic metabolism model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lutz, Wolfgang; Muttarak, Raya

    2017-03-01

    In seeking to understand how future societies will be affected by climate change we cannot simply assume they will be identical to those of today, because climate and societies are both dynamic. Here we propose that the concept of demographic metabolism and the associated methods of multi-dimensional population projections provide an effective analytical toolbox to forecast important aspects of societal change that affect adaptive capacity. We present an example of how the changing educational composition of future populations can influence societies' adaptive capacity. Multi-dimensional population projections form the human core of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways scenarios, and knowledge and analytical tools from demography have great value in assessing the likely implications of climate change on future human well-being.

  4. WeedML: a Tool for Collaborative Weed Demographic Modeling

    OpenAIRE

    Holst, Niels

    2010-01-01

    WeedML is a proposed standard to formulate models of weed demography, or maybe even complex models in general, that are both transparent and straightforward to re-use as building blocks for new models. The paper describes the design and thoughts behind WeedML which relies on XML and object-oriented systems development. Proof-of-concept software is provided as open-source C++ code and executables that can be downloaded freely.

  5. Accessibility to Nodes of Interest: Demographic Weighting the Logistic Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gioacchino DE CANDIA

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available This research fits into the genre of spatial analysis, aimed at better understanding of population dynamics in relation to the presence and distribution of infrastructure and related services. Specifically, the analysis uses a model of the gravitational type, based on the assumption of the impedance (attractiveness territorial, based on a curve of type logistics to determine the accessibility of the same, to which to add a system of weights. In this sense, the model was weighted according to the population, to determine the level of “population served” in terms of infrastructure and related services included in the model.

  6. Modeling of budgetary funding influence on socio-demographic processes of a region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aleksandra Vladimirovna Vasil'eva

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes a method of modeling socio-demographic processes in a region based on the minimax approach. In this method, the simulated socio-demographic processes reflect the performance of a population fertility age model, reproductive systems and the structure of mortality, as management impact tools of fiscal spending on socially significant budget items (health, physical culture and sport, social policy, education, environmental protection are considered. Testing methodology on the examples of the Russian Federation subjects included in the Ural Federal District is presented. Peculiarities of influence of funding of each socially important item on the social and demographic processes in the regions of the Ural Federal District are shown. Priorities of distribution of funds based on the level of budgetary provision in the region to ensure optimization of socio-demographic development of the region are shaped.

  7. Demographic consequences of increased winter births in a large aseasonally breeding mammal (Bos taurus) in response to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burthe, Sarah; Butler, Adam; Searle, Kate R; Hall, Stephen J G; Thackeray, Stephen J; Wanless, Sarah

    2011-11-01

    1. Studies examining changes in the scheduling of breeding in response to climate change have focused on species with well-defined breeding seasons. Species exhibiting year-round breeding have received little attention and the magnitudes of any responses are unknown. 2. We investigated phenological data for an enclosed feral population of cattle (Bos taurus L.) in northern England exhibiting year-round breeding. This population is relatively free of human interference. 3. We assessed whether the timing of births had changed over the last 60 years, in response to increasing winter and spring temperatures, changes in herd density, and a regime of lime fertilisation. 4. Median birth date became earlier by 1·0 days per year. Analyses of the seasonal distribution of calving dates showed that significantly fewer calves were born in summer (decline from 44% of total births to 20%) and significantly more in winter (increase from 12% to 30%) over the study period. The most pronounced changes occurred in winter, with significant increases in both the proportion and number of births. Winter births arise from conceptions in the previous spring, and we considered models that investigated climate and weather variables associated with the winter preceding and the spring of conceptions. 5. The proportion of winter births was higher when the onset of the plant growing season was earlier during the spring of conceptions. This relationship was much weaker during years when the site had been fertilised with lime, suggesting that increased forage biomass was over-riding the impacts of changing plant phenology. When the onset of the growing season was late, winter births increased with female density. 6. Recruitment estimates from a stage-structured state-space population model were significantly negatively correlated with the proportion of births in the preceding winter, suggesting that calves born in winter are less likely to survive than those born in other seasons. 7.

  8. A micro simulation model of demographic development and households' economic behavior in Italy

    OpenAIRE

    Albert Ando; Sergio Nicoletti-Altimari

    2004-01-01

    The relationship between the demographic structure and the saving rate of a society is the reflection of the aggregation of the behaviour of heterogeneous households, differing from one another in the type of living arrangements and in the characteristics of their members. In order to contribute to the understanding of this relationship, we construct a dynamic micro model capable of simulating the demographic development of a population, including the creation, destruction, dimension and vari...

  9. Biomechanical models to simulate consequences of maxillofacial surgery

    CERN Document Server

    Payan, Y; Pelorson, X; Vilain, C; Levy, P; Luboz, V; Perrier, P; Payan, Yohan; Chabanas, Matthieu; Pelorson, Xavier; Vilain, Coriandre; Levy, Patrick; Luboz, Vincent; Perrier, Pascal

    2002-01-01

    This paper presents the biomechanical finite element models that have been developed in the framework of the computer-assisted maxillofacial surgery. After a brief overview of the continuous elastic modelling method, two models are introduced and their use for computer-assisted applications discussed. The first model deals with orthognathic surgery and aims at predicting the facial consequences of maxillary and mandibular osteotomies. For this, a generic three-dimensional model of the face is automatically adapted to the morphology of the patient by the mean of elastic registration. Qualitative simulations of the consequences of an osteotomy of the mandible can thus be provided. The second model addresses the Sleep Apnoea Syndrome. Its aim is to develop a complete modelling of the interaction between airflow and upper airways walls during respiration. Dynamical simulations of the interaction during a respiratory cycle are computed and compared with observed phenomena.

  10. Model schedules in Multistate Demographic Analysis: The Case of Migration

    OpenAIRE

    1981-01-01

    This paper draws on the fundamental regularity exhibited by age profiles of migration all over the world to develop a system of hypothetical "synthetic" model miqration schedules that can be used to carry out multiregional population analyses in countries that lack adequate migration data.

  11. Demographic noise and resilience in a semi-arid ecosystem model

    CERN Document Server

    Realpe-Gomez, John; Galla, Tobias; McKane, Alan J; Rietkerk, Max

    2013-01-01

    The scarcity of water characterizing drylands forces vegetation to adopt appropriate survival strategies. Some of these generate water-vegetation feedback mechanisms that can lead to spatial self-organisation of vegetation. To date these phenomena have mostly been studied with models representing plants by a density of biomass, varying continuously in time and space. Such models disregard the discrete nature of plant individuals and their intrinsically stochastic behaviour. These features give rise to demographic noise, which can influence the qualitative dynamics of ecosystem models. In the present work we explore the effects of demographic noise on the resilience of a model semi-arid ecosystem. We introduce a spatial stochastic eco-hydrological hybrid model in which plants are modelled as discrete entities subject to stochastic dynamical rules, while the dynamics of surface and soil water are described by continuous variables. The model has a deterministic approximation very similar to previous continuous m...

  12. Socio-demographic characteristics affecting sport tourism choices: A structural model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nataša Slak Valek

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Background: Effective tourism management in the field of sports tourism requires an understanding of differences in socioeconomic characteristics both within and between different market segments. Objective: In the broad tourism market demographic characteristics have been extensively analyzed for differences in destination choices, however little is known about demographic factors affecting sport tourists' decisions. Methods: A sample of Slovenian sports tourists was analyzed using data from a comprehensive survey of local and outbound tourist activity conducted by the Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia in 2008. After data weighting the information for 353,783 sports related trips were available for analysis. The research model adopted suggests that four socio-demographic characteristics (gender, age, level of education and income significantly affect a tourist's choice of sports related travel either locally within Slovenia or to a foreign country. Furthermore the destination (local or foreign has an influence on the choice of the type of accommodation selected and the tourist's total expenditure for the trip. For testing the first part of our model (the socio-demographic characteristics effects a linear regression was used, and for the final part of the model (the selection of accommodation type and travel expenditure t-test were applied. Results: The result shows the standardized β regression coefficients are all statistically significant at the .001 level for the tested socio-demographic characteristics and also the overall regression model was statistically significant at .001 level. Conclusions: With these results the study confirmed that all the selected socio-demographic characteristics have a significant influence on the sport-active tourist when choosing between a domestic and foreign tourism destination which in turn affect the type of accommodation chosen and the level of expenditure while travelling.

  13. MEDICAL AND DEMOGRAPHIC CONSEQUENCES OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE ASSESSMENT OF COMFORT LEVEL OF WEATHER-CLIMATIC CONDITIONS IN THE VOLGA FEDERAL DISTRICT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuri P. Perevedentsev

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper provides a brief analysis of research on the impact of global climate change on human health. Using Tatarstan as an example, the paper discusses medical and demographic consequences of the extreme heat wave of the summer of 2010. Assessment of the Volga Federal District (VFD bioclimate conducted with the help of certain biometeorological parameters allowed evaluating modern global and regional changes of weather-climatic conditions. The main emphasis was placed on spatial and temporal analysis of both the integral pathogenicity index (I and its individual components for the district territory. In VFD, aggravating weather conditions increase from southwest to northeast. Summer months are associated with comfort weather conditions. In winter, the air temperature pathogenicity index and interdiurnal temperature fluctuations contribute the greatest to I; in summer, the role of cloudiness and humidity pathogenicity indices increases. The contribution of wind speed and interdiurnal pressure fluctuations to I is insignificant in all seasons. Analysis of the frequency distribution of I showed that comfort weather conditions (over 50 % of cases occur in May–August, aggravating weather conditions occur in March-Appril, and harsh weather conditions in more than 50 % of cases occur in January–February and November–December. Calculation of biometeorological indices allows forecasting risk of thermal hazard under extreme meteorological conditions.

  14. Demographic links to savings in life cycle models: identification of issues for LDCs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raut, L K

    1992-01-01

    The author considers the potential for a link between the recent pattern of demographic transition and intertemporal and inter-country variations in savings rates. Fertility, infant mortality, life expectancy, and levels of female and child labor force participation are among the various demographic factors which affect national savings rates through their effects upon age structure, age-specific individual savings behavior, and their general equilibrium effects upon interest rates, wage rates, and income distribution. The author establishes a simple discrete time life cycle model of savings, explains the issues related to age structure, and discusses the effect of age-specific savings functions, the general equilibrium effects of demographic factors, the effects of life expectancies and child mortalities, and the nature of social security coverages in less developed countries, as well as issues which are especially important for less developed countries. A new strategy for empirically evaluating demographic policies is proposed. That is, one can estimate the age profile of earnings, saving and fertility rates from household survey data. The life tables can then be used to compute the aggregate savings rate and population size. Any demographic policy which affects the fertility rate, life expectancy, and investment in the quality of children will change the aggregate saving and population growth rates. These two aggregate effects could be compared to evaluate demographic policies. The author stresses, however, that changes in different demographic factors will have different short-run and long-run effects upon the savings rate which will also depend upon whether such changes are transitory or permanent.

  15. Analysis of the consequences of aircraft manufacturers’ system integration model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    João Henrique Lopes Guerra

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available This is a theoretical-conceptual, which aimed to identify some likely consequences of the integration model systems that have been adopted in the aerospace industry by major aircraft manufacturers in the world. In the model of system integration, these manufacturers maintain internally the activities associated with their basic skills and transfer their skills to peripheral suppliers. We identified the following consequences: the growth of strategic alliances in the airline industry, the internationalization of aeronautical chains, with the strengthening of productive activities in some geographic regions; challenges related to the domestic supplier base and the consolidation of national chains, the greatest power suppliers of the first layer, the contribution to the dissemination of knowledge among supply chains, and the potential emergence of new competitors.

  16. Physical Consequences of Nonabelian Duality in the Standard Model

    OpenAIRE

    Chan, H. M.; Tsou, S. T.

    1997-01-01

    Possible physical consequences of a recently discovered nonabelian dual symmetry are explored in the standard model. It is found that both Higgs fields and fermion generations can be assigned a natural place in the dual framework, with Higgs fields appearing as frames (or `N-beins') in internal symmetry space, and generations appearing as spontaneously broken dual colour. Fermions then occur in exactly 3 generations and have a factorizable mass matrix which gives automatically one generation ...

  17. Why do faultlines matter? A computational model of how strong demographic faultlines undermine team cohesion

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Flache, Andreas; Mas, Michael; Mäs, Michael

    2008-01-01

    Lau and Murnighan (LM) suggested that strong demographic faultlines threaten team cohesion and reduce consensus. However, it remains unclear which assumptions are exactly needed to derive faultline effects. We propose a formal computational model of the effects of faultlines that uses four elementar

  18. Spatial demographic models to inform conservation planning of golden eagles in renewable energy landscapes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spatial demographic models can help guide monitoring and management activities targeting at-risk species, even in cases where baseline data are lacking. Here, we provide an example of how site-specific changes in land-use and other anthropogenic stressors can be incorporated int...

  19. Consequence and Resilience Modeling for Chemical Supply Chains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stamber, Kevin L.; Vugrin, Eric D.; Ehlen, Mark A.; Sun, Amy C.; Warren, Drake E.; Welk, Margaret E.

    2011-01-01

    The U.S. chemical sector produces more than 70,000 chemicals that are essential material inputs to critical infrastructure systems, such as the energy, public health, and food and agriculture sectors. Disruptions to the chemical sector can potentially cascade to other dependent sectors, resulting in serious national consequences. To address this concern, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) tasked Sandia National Laboratories to develop a predictive consequence modeling and simulation capability for global chemical supply chains. This paper describes that capability , which includes a dynamic supply chain simulation platform called N_ABLE(tm). The paper also presents results from a case study that simulates the consequences of a Gulf Coast hurricane on selected segments of the U.S. chemical sector. The case study identified consequences that include impacted chemical facilities, cascading impacts to other parts of the chemical sector. and estimates of the lengths of chemical shortages and recovery . Overall. these simulation results can DHS prepare for and respond to actual disruptions.

  20. Endogenising demographic variables in demo-economic models: the Bachue experience.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wery, R; Rodgers, G

    1980-01-01

    The attempt is made in this discussion to describe and draw lessons from the treatment of behavioral demographic variables in the Bachue demo-economic models constructed for the Philippines, Kenya, Brazil and Yugoslavia. Focus is on certain theoretical, technical and practical problems encountered in inserting demographic variables in the system as a whole; how they have been measured in the various applications of the Bachue models, how they are behaviorally explained and linked to the other elements in the system, the data sources used, and some issues of econometric estimates and modelling. 8 issues are dealt with: population accounting and lag structure; fertility; mortality; migration; nuptiality; household formation; schooling; and labor force participation. In each case model structure, dependent and explanatory variables, and empirical strategy are discussed. Summary tables compare the approaches of the different models. The specifics of each country situation rule out the identification of the best solution. Some suggestions regarding more promising approaches are included with respect to choice of variables and the estimation of behavioral models. The endogenous nature of certain demographic elements of a demo-economic model are clear, but construction of the Bachue models has shown that there are no exact rules valid for all cases. There is considerable variety in the way characteristics of the population have been represented in the various applications.

  1. Modelling Hydrological Consequences of Climate Change-Progress and Challenges

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2005-01-01

    The simulation of hydrological consequences of climate change has received increasing attention from the hydrology and land-surface modelling communities. There have been many studies of climate-change effects on hydrology and water resources which usually consist of three steps: (1) use of general circulation models (GCMs) to provide future global climate scenarios under the effect of increasing greenhouse gases,(2) use of downscaling techniques (both nested regional climate models, RCMs, and statistical methods)for "downscaling" the GCM output to the scales compatible with hydrological models, and (3) use of hydrologic models to simulate the effects of climate change on hydrological regimes at various scales.Great progress has been achieved in all three steps during the past few years, however, large uncertainties still exist in every stage of such study. This paper first reviews the present achievements in this field and then discusses the challenges for future studies of the hydrological impacts of climate change.

  2. Reasoning about causes and consequences in Mulitlevel Flow Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lind, Morten

    2012-01-01

    -end topology of the multilevel flow models and may be used for design of human machine interfaces supporting diagrammatic reasoning about spatial-temporal aspects of dynamic situations. The principles described in the paper have been used in the implementation of a model based reasoning system.......The purpose of the paper is to describe how multilevel flow models are used for reasoning about causes and consequences in complex dynamic processes. Reasoning in MFM models derives its power from representation of process knowledge on several levels of specification. The detailed specification...... is the basis for implementation of automated model based reasoning functions whereas the more abstract specifica-tions provides generic process knowledge for formulation of reasoning strategies and for giving explanations. Reasoning strategies and explanations can be directly visualized in terms of the means...

  3. Modeling the consequences of tongue surgery on tongue mobility

    CERN Document Server

    Buchaillard, Stéphanie; Perrier, Pascal; Payan, Yohan

    2007-01-01

    This paper presents the current achievements of a long term project aiming at predicting and assessing the impact of tongue and mouth floor surgery on tongue mobility. The ultimate objective of this project is the design of a software with which surgeons should be able (1) to design a 3D biomechanical model of the tongue and of the mouth floor that matches the anatomical characteristics of each patient specific oral cavity, (2) to simulate the anatomical changes induced by the surgery and the possible reconstruction, and (3) to quantitatively predict and assess the consequences of these anatomical changes on tongue mobility and speech production after surgery.

  4. Jet fire consequence modeling for high-pressure gas pipelines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coccorullo, Ivano; Russo, Paola

    2016-12-01

    A simple and reliable approach for sizing the hazard area potentially affected by a jet fire as consequence of the failure of high-pressure pipeline is proposed. A release rate model, taking pipeline operation properties and source release properties into account, is coupled with SLAB dispersion model and point source radiation model to calculate the hazard distance. The hazard distance is set beyond the distance at which a low chance of fatality can occur to people exposed and a wooden structure is not expected to burn due to radiation heat of jet fire. The comparison between three gases with different physico-chemical properties (i.e. natural gas, hydrogen, ethylene) is shown. The influence of pipeline operating parameters, such as: pressure, pipeline diameter and length, hole size, on the hazard area for the three gases is evaluated. Finally, a simple correlation is proposed for calculating the hazard distance as function of these parameters.

  5. Hierarchial mark-recapture models: a framework for inference about demographic processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Link, W.A.; Barker, R.J.

    2004-01-01

    The development of sophisticated mark-recapture models over the last four decades has provided fundamental tools for the study of wildlife populations, allowing reliable inference about population sizes and demographic rates based on clearly formulated models for the sampling processes. Mark-recapture models are now routinely described by large numbers of parameters. These large models provide the next challenge to wildlife modelers: the extraction of signal from noise in large collections of parameters. Pattern among parameters can be described by strong, deterministic relations (as in ultrastructural models) but is more flexibly and credibly modeled using weaker, stochastic relations. Trend in survival rates is not likely to be manifest by a sequence of values falling precisely on a given parametric curve; rather, if we could somehow know the true values, we might anticipate a regression relation between parameters and explanatory variables, in which true value equals signal plus noise. Hierarchical models provide a useful framework for inference about collections of related parameters. Instead of regarding parameters as fixed but unknown quantities, we regard them as realizations of stochastic processes governed by hyperparameters. Inference about demographic processes is based on investigation of these hyperparameters. We advocate the Bayesian paradigm as a natural, mathematically and scientifically sound basis for inference about hierarchical models. We describe analysis of capture-recapture data from an open population based on hierarchical extensions of the Cormack-Jolly-Seber model. In addition to recaptures of marked animals, we model first captures of animals and losses on capture, and are thus able to estimate survival probabilities w (i.e., the complement of death or permanent emigration) and per capita growth rates f (i.e., the sum of recruitment and immigration rates). Covariation in these rates, a feature of demographic interest, is explicitly

  6. Biogeochemical versus ecological consequences of modeled ocean physics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clayton, Sophie; Dutkiewicz, Stephanie; Jahn, Oliver; Hill, Christopher; Heimbach, Patrick; Follows, Michael J.

    2017-06-01

    We present a systematic study of the differences generated by coupling the same ecological-biogeochemical model to a 1°, coarse-resolution, and 1/6°, eddy-permitting, global ocean circulation model to (a) biogeochemistry (e.g., primary production) and (b) phytoplankton community structure. Surprisingly, we find that the modeled phytoplankton community is largely unchanged, with the same phenotypes dominating in both cases. Conversely, there are large regional and seasonal variations in primary production, phytoplankton and zooplankton biomass. In the subtropics, mixed layer depths (MLDs) are, on average, deeper in the eddy-permitting model, resulting in higher nutrient supply driving increases in primary production and phytoplankton biomass. In the higher latitudes, differences in winter mixed layer depths, the timing of the onset of the spring bloom and vertical nutrient supply result in lower primary production in the eddy-permitting model. Counterintuitively, this does not drive a decrease in phytoplankton biomass but results in lower zooplankton biomass. We explain these similarities and differences in the model using the framework of resource competition theory, and find that they are the consequence of changes in the regional and seasonal nutrient supply and light environment, mediated by differences in the modeled mixed layer depths. Although previous work has suggested that complex models may respond chaotically and unpredictably to changes in forcing, we find that our model responds in a predictable way to different ocean circulation forcing, despite its complexity. The use of frameworks, such as resource competition theory, provides a tractable way to explore the differences and similarities that occur. As this model has many similarities to other widely used biogeochemical models that also resolve multiple phytoplankton phenotypes, this study provides important insights into how the results of running these models under different physical conditions

  7. Using demographic models to project the effects of climate change on scleractinian corals: Pocillopora damicornis as a case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bramanti, L.; Iannelli, M.; Fan, T. Y.; Edmunds, P. J.

    2015-06-01

    Using empirical analyses of the effects of global climate change (GCC) and ocean acidification (OA) on the survival and calcification of early life stages of Pocillopora damicornis, we employed a demographic approach to forecast the consequences of GCC and OA on the population dynamics of this coral. We constructed a size-based demographic model using life-history tables and transition probabilities for a population in Southern Taiwan, and projected the population structure over ~100 yr under scenarios of warming and acidification. The simulations incorporated stochastic variability of the parameters (±5 %), decline in larval survival due to increases in temperature and pCO2, modified growth rates due to rising temperature, and larval input from distant populations. In a closed population, an increase of pCO2 from 40.5 to 91.2 Pa reduces density, and an increase in temperature from 26 to 29 °C results in population extirpation within 100 yr. With a larval supply of 10 % from distant populations, the population persisted regardless of high temperature (+3 °C). These results indicate that: (1) populations of P. damicornis may be resistant to GCC and OA so long as it persists as part of a metapopulation capable of supplying larvae from spatially separated populations and (2) early life stages can regulate the population dynamics of P. damicornis.

  8. How to get the timing right. A computational model of the effects of the timing of contacts on team cohesion in demographically diverse teams

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Flache, Andreas; Mäs, Michael

    Lau and Murnighan’s faultline theory explains negative effects of demographic diversity on team performance as consequence of strong demographic faultlines. If demographic differences between group members are correlated across various dimensions, the team is likely to show a “subgroup split” that

  9. Maternal feeding strategies and child's food intake: considering weight and demographic influences using structural equation modeling

    OpenAIRE

    Warschburger Petra; Kröller Katja

    2009-01-01

    Abstract Background Research concerning child's food intake have considered various influencing factors, for example parental feeding strategies, demographic and weight factors. At this time, however, there are few findings that explore these factors simultaneously. Accordingly, the aim of this study was to test a structural equation model regarding the associations between maternal feeding strategies and child's food intake. Methods 556 mothers and their children between 1 and 10 years of ag...

  10. Using a generalised identity reference model with archetypes to support interoperability of demographics information in electronic health record systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu Chen; Berry, Damon; Stephens, Gaye

    2015-01-01

    Computerised identity management is in general encountered as a low-level mechanism that enables users in a particular system or region to securely access resources. In the Electronic Health Record (EHR), the identifying information of both the healthcare professionals who access the EHR and the patients whose EHR is accessed, are subject to change. Demographics services have been developed to manage federated patient and healthcare professional identities and to support challenging healthcare-specific use cases in the presence of diverse and sometimes conflicting demographic identities. Demographics services are not the only use for identities in healthcare. Nevertheless, contemporary EHR specifications limit the types of entities that can be the actor or subject of a record to health professionals and patients, thus limiting the use of two level models in other healthcare information systems. Demographics are ubiquitous in healthcare, so for a general identity model to be usable, it should be capable of managing demographic information. In this paper, we introduce a generalised identity reference model (GIRM) based on key characteristics of five surveyed demographic models. We evaluate the GIRM by using it to express the EN13606 demographics model in an extensible way at the metadata level and show how two-level modelling can support the exchange of instances of demographic identities. This use of the GIRM to express demographics information shows its application for standards-compliant two-level modelling alongside heterogeneous demographics models. We advocate this approach to facilitate the interoperability of identities between two-level model-based EHR systems and show the validity and the extensibility of using GIRM for the expression of other health-related identities.

  11. Igneous Consequence Modeling for the TSPA-SR

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    John McCord

    2001-10-29

    The purpose of this technical report is to develop credible, defendable, substantiated models for the consequences of igneous activity for the TSPA-SR Model. The effort will build on the TSPA-VA and improve the quality of scenarios and depth of the technical basis underlying disruptive events modeling. Computational models for both volcanic eruptive releases (this is an event that results in ash containing waste being ejected from Yucca Mountain) and igneous intrusion groundwater releases (this is an event that reaches the repository level, impacts the waste packages, and produces releases from waste packages damaged by igneous activity) will be included directly in the TSPA calculations as part of the TSPA-SR Model. This Analysis Model Report (AMR) is limited to development of the conceptual models for these two scenarios. The mathematical implementation of these conceptual models will be done within the TSPA-SR Model. Thus, this AMR will not include any model results or sensitivity analyses. Calculation of any doses resulting from igneous releases will also be done within the TSPA-SR model, as will the probabilistic weighting of these doses. Calculation and analysis of the TSPA-SR Model results for igneous disruption are, therefore, outside the scope of this activity. The reason for not running the mathematical models as part of this AMR is that the models are integrated within the TSPA-SR model and, thus, any model simulations and the corresponding results are out of the scope of this AMR. The scope of this work as defined in the development plan (CRWMS M&O 2000j) involves using data that has been extracted from existing sources to design and support the TSPA-SR models for the transport of radionuclides following igneous disruption of the repository. The development plan states ''applications of the code in this analysis will be limited to testing of the code and sensitivity analyses during analysis design.'' In contrast to the development

  12. Mapping populations at risk: improving spatial demographic data for infectious disease modeling and metric derivation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tatem Andrew J

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract The use of Global Positioning Systems (GPS and Geographical Information Systems (GIS in disease surveys and reporting is becoming increasingly routine, enabling a better understanding of spatial epidemiology and the improvement of surveillance and control strategies. In turn, the greater availability of spatially referenced epidemiological data is driving the rapid expansion of disease mapping and spatial modeling methods, which are becoming increasingly detailed and sophisticated, with rigorous handling of uncertainties. This expansion has, however, not been matched by advancements in the development of spatial datasets of human population distribution that accompany disease maps or spatial models. Where risks are heterogeneous across population groups or space or dependent on transmission between individuals, spatial data on human population distributions and demographic structures are required to estimate infectious disease risks, burdens, and dynamics. The disease impact in terms of morbidity, mortality, and speed of spread varies substantially with demographic profiles, so that identifying the most exposed or affected populations becomes a key aspect of planning and targeting interventions. Subnational breakdowns of population counts by age and sex are routinely collected during national censuses and maintained in finer detail within microcensus data. Moreover, demographic and health surveys continue to collect representative and contemporary samples from clusters of communities in low-income countries where census data may be less detailed and not collected regularly. Together, these freely available datasets form a rich resource for quantifying and understanding the spatial variations in the sizes and distributions of those most at risk of disease in low income regions, yet at present, they remain unconnected data scattered across national statistical offices and websites. In this paper we discuss the deficiencies of existing

  13. Mapping populations at risk: improving spatial demographic data for infectious disease modeling and metric derivation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tatem, Andrew J; Adamo, Susana; Bharti, Nita; Burgert, Clara R; Castro, Marcia; Dorelien, Audrey; Fink, Gunter; Linard, Catherine; John, Mendelsohn; Montana, Livia; Montgomery, Mark R; Nelson, Andrew; Noor, Abdisalan M; Pindolia, Deepa; Yetman, Greg; Balk, Deborah

    2012-05-16

    The use of Global Positioning Systems (GPS) and Geographical Information Systems (GIS) in disease surveys and reporting is becoming increasingly routine, enabling a better understanding of spatial epidemiology and the improvement of surveillance and control strategies. In turn, the greater availability of spatially referenced epidemiological data is driving the rapid expansion of disease mapping and spatial modeling methods, which are becoming increasingly detailed and sophisticated, with rigorous handling of uncertainties. This expansion has, however, not been matched by advancements in the development of spatial datasets of human population distribution that accompany disease maps or spatial models.Where risks are heterogeneous across population groups or space or dependent on transmission between individuals, spatial data on human population distributions and demographic structures are required to estimate infectious disease risks, burdens, and dynamics. The disease impact in terms of morbidity, mortality, and speed of spread varies substantially with demographic profiles, so that identifying the most exposed or affected populations becomes a key aspect of planning and targeting interventions. Subnational breakdowns of population counts by age and sex are routinely collected during national censuses and maintained in finer detail within microcensus data. Moreover, demographic and health surveys continue to collect representative and contemporary samples from clusters of communities in low-income countries where census data may be less detailed and not collected regularly. Together, these freely available datasets form a rich resource for quantifying and understanding the spatial variations in the sizes and distributions of those most at risk of disease in low income regions, yet at present, they remain unconnected data scattered across national statistical offices and websites.In this paper we discuss the deficiencies of existing spatial population datasets and

  14. Ecological consequences of global bifurcations in some food chain models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Voorn, George A K; Kooi, Bob W; Boer, Martin P

    2010-08-01

    Food chain models of ordinary differential equations (ode's) are often used in ecology to gain insight in the dynamics of populations of species, and the interactions of these species with each other and their environment. One powerful analysis technique is bifurcation analysis, focusing on the changes in long-term (asymptotic) behaviour under parameter variation. For the detection of local bifurcations there exists standardised software, but until quite recently most software did not include any capabilities for the detection and continuation of global bifurcations. We focus here on the occurrence of global bifurcations in four food chain models, and discuss the implications of their occurrence. In two stoichiometric models (one piecewise continuous, one smooth) there exists a homoclinic bifurcation, that results in the disappearance of a limit cycle attractor. Instead, a stable positive equilibrium becomes the global attractor. The models are also capable of bistability. In two three-dimensional models a Shil'nikov homoclinic bifurcation functions as the organising centre of chaos, while tangencies of homoclinic cycle-to-cycle connections 'cut' the chaotic attractors, which is associated with boundary crises. In one model this leads to extinction of the top predator, while in the other model hysteresis occurs. The types of ecological events occurring because of a global bifurcation will be categorized. Global bifurcations are always catastrophic, leading to the disappearance or merging of attractors. However, there is no 1-on-1 coupling between global bifurcation type and the possible ecological consequences. This only emphasizes the importance of including global bifurcations in the analysis of food chain models.

  15. Overview of cost-consequence modeling in outcomes research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stergachis, A

    1995-01-01

    Outcomes research has developed in response to the need for information on costs, risks, and benefits of clinical treatments, including data regarding the effectiveness of prescription drugs. It attempts to consider more than the biologic effects of pharmaceuticals, that is, to encompass wider measures of the results of their use, issues that are not routinely addressed during clinical trials. Cost-effectiveness analysis compares the outcome of different treatment options in terms of monetary cost per unit of effectiveness. Examples of measures of effectiveness are years of life saved, number of days of hospitalization avoided, and number of treatment successes. Cost-consequence models, also referred to as cost-outcome models, deal with costs and a variety of outcomes ranging from clinical to humanistic. Direct medical costs are those for prevention, detection, treatment, and rehabilitation; they are amounts spent to treat an illness, including hospitalization, professional services, pharmaceuticals, and medical supplies. Indirect medical costs are associated with changes in productivity, such as earnings lost because of illness. Humanistic outcomes deal primarily with functional status, quality of life, and satisfaction, and may include pain, anxiety, self-esteem, ability to carry out normal activities, and overall impressions. Since it is not possible to study all effects of treatments with clinical trials, modeling techniques are useful in making therapeutic decisions.

  16. Effects of climate change on an emperor penguin population: analysis of coupled demographic and climate models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jenouvrier, Stéphanie; Holland, Marika; Stroeve, Julienne; Barbraud, Christophe; Weimerskirch, Henri; Serreze, Mark; Caswell, Hal

    2012-09-01

    Sea ice conditions in the Antarctic affect the life cycle of the emperor penguin (Aptenodytes forsteri). We present a population projection for the emperor penguin population of Terre Adélie, Antarctica, by linking demographic models (stage-structured, seasonal, nonlinear, two-sex matrix population models) to sea ice forecasts from an ensemble of IPCC climate models. Based on maximum likelihood capture-mark-recapture analysis, we find that seasonal sea ice concentration anomalies (SICa ) affect adult survival and breeding success. Demographic models show that both deterministic and stochastic population growth rates are maximized at intermediate values of annual SICa , because neither the complete absence of sea ice, nor heavy and persistent sea ice, would provide satisfactory conditions for the emperor penguin. We show that under some conditions the stochastic growth rate is positively affected by the variance in SICa . We identify an ensemble of five general circulation climate models whose output closely matches the historical record of sea ice concentration in Terre Adélie. The output of this ensemble is used to produce stochastic forecasts of SICa , which in turn drive the population model. Uncertainty is included by incorporating multiple climate models and by a parametric bootstrap procedure that includes parameter uncertainty due to both model selection and estimation error. The median of these simulations predicts a decline of the Terre Adélie emperor penguin population of 81% by the year 2100. We find a 43% chance of an even greater decline, of 90% or more. The uncertainty in population projections reflects large differences among climate models in their forecasts of future sea ice conditions. One such model predicts population increases over much of the century, but overall, the ensemble of models predicts that population declines are far more likely than population increases. We conclude that climate change is a significant risk for the emperor

  17. DESCARTES' RULE OF SIGNS AND THE IDENTIFIABILITY OF POPULATION DEMOGRAPHIC MODELS FROM GENOMIC VARIATION DATA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhaskar, Anand; Song, Yun S

    2014-01-01

    The sample frequency spectrum (SFS) is a widely-used summary statistic of genomic variation in a sample of homologous DNA sequences. It provides a highly efficient dimensional reduction of large-scale population genomic data and its mathematical dependence on the underlying population demography is well understood, thus enabling the development of efficient inference algorithms. However, it has been recently shown that very different population demographies can actually generate the same SFS for arbitrarily large sample sizes. Although in principle this nonidentifiability issue poses a thorny challenge to statistical inference, the population size functions involved in the counterexamples are arguably not so biologically realistic. Here, we revisit this problem and examine the identifiability of demographic models under the restriction that the population sizes are piecewise-defined where each piece belongs to some family of biologically-motivated functions. Under this assumption, we prove that the expected SFS of a sample uniquely determines the underlying demographic model, provided that the sample is sufficiently large. We obtain a general bound on the sample size sufficient for identifiability; the bound depends on the number of pieces in the demographic model and also on the type of population size function in each piece. In the cases of piecewise-constant, piecewise-exponential and piecewise-generalized-exponential models, which are often assumed in population genomic inferences, we provide explicit formulas for the bounds as simple functions of the number of pieces. Lastly, we obtain analogous results for the "folded" SFS, which is often used when there is ambiguity as to which allelic type is ancestral. Our results are proved using a generalization of Descartes' rule of signs for polynomials to the Laplace transform of piecewise continuous functions.

  18. Population consequences of reproductive decisions.

    OpenAIRE

    Smith, C; Reynolds, J.D.; Sutherland, W.J.

    2000-01-01

    Behaviour can be a key component of animal population ecology yet the population consequences of behavioural decisions are poorly understood. We conducted a behavioural and demographic study of the bitterling Rhodeus sericeus, a freshwater fish that spawns in live unionid mussels. We used a population model incorporating game theory decisions and measurements of demographic parameters in order to provide predictions of population size among 13 populations of this fish. Our model predicted tha...

  19. [Model calculations of the effect of demographic changes on the incidence of cancer in Saarland].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brenner, H; Ziegler, H

    1989-12-01

    Resulting from the population structure and current fertility and mortality rates, a rapid aging of the West German society is to be expected. The impact of these demographic changes on numbers of cancer cases and incidence rates is quantitatively assessed for the Saarland, which is the only state with reliable population-based cancer registration in the FRG. Despite a projected decrease in population size during the next decades, numbers of incident cases are expected to rise substantially in males and to remain almost constant in females for all of the most common forms of cancer. The projected changes have model character for other parts of the FRG.

  20. Structured Modeling and Analysis of Stochastic Epidemics with Immigration and Demographic Effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baumann, Hendrik; Sandmann, Werner

    2016-01-01

    Stochastic epidemics with open populations of variable population sizes are considered where due to immigration and demographic effects the epidemic does not eventually die out forever. The underlying stochastic processes are ergodic multi-dimensional continuous-time Markov chains that possess unique equilibrium probability distributions. Modeling these epidemics as level-dependent quasi-birth-and-death processes enables efficient computations of the equilibrium distributions by matrix-analytic methods. Numerical examples for specific parameter sets are provided, which demonstrates that this approach is particularly well-suited for studying the impact of varying rates for immigration, births, deaths, infection, recovery from infection, and loss of immunity.

  1. Demographic transition and the dynamics of measles in six provinces in China: A modeling study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Sheng; Ma, Chao; Hao, Lixin; Su, Qiru; An, Zhijie; Ma, Fubao; Xie, Shuyun; Xu, Aiqiang; Zhang, Yanyang; Ding, Zhengrong; Li, Hui; Cairns, Lisa; Wang, Huaqing; Luo, Huiming; Wang, Ning; Li, Li; Ferrari, Matthew J

    2017-04-01

    Industrialization and demographic transition generate nonstationary dynamics in human populations that can affect the transmission and persistence of infectious diseases. Decades of increasing vaccination and development have led to dramatic declines in the global burden of measles, but the virus remains persistent in much of the world. Here we show that a combination of demographic transition, as a result of declining birth rates, and reduced measles prevalence, due to improved vaccination, has shifted the age distribution of susceptibility to measles throughout China. We fit a novel time-varying catalytic model to three decades of age-specific measles case reporting in six provinces in China to quantify the change in the age-specific force of infection for measles virus over time. We further quantified the impact of supplemental vaccination campaigns on the reduction of susceptible individuals. The force of infection of measles has declined dramatically (90%-97% reduction in transmission rate) in three industrialized eastern provinces during the last decade, driving a concomitant increase in both the relative proportion and absolute number of adult cases, while three central and western provinces exhibited dynamics consistent with endemic persistence (24%-73% reduction in transmission rate). The reduction in susceptible individuals due to supplemental vaccination campaigns is frequently below the nominal campaign coverage, likely because campaigns necessarily vaccinate those who may already be immune. The impact of these campaigns has significantly improved over time: campaigns prior to 2005 were estimated to have achieved less than 50% reductions in the proportion susceptible in the target age classes, but campaigns from 2005 onwards reduced the susceptible proportion by 32%-87%. A limitation of this study is that it relies on case surveillance, and thus inference may be biased by age-specific variation in measles reporting. The age distribution of measles cases

  2. Global dynamics of a network-based SIQRS epidemic model with demographics and vaccination

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Shouying; Chen, Fengde; Chen, Lijuan

    2017-02-01

    This paper investigates a new SIQRS epidemic model with demographics and vaccination on complex heterogeneous networks. We analytically derive the basic reproduction number R0, which determines not only the existence of endemic equilibrium but also the global dynamics of the model. The permanence of the disease and the globally asymptotical stability of disease-free equilibrium are proved in detail. By using a monotone iterative technique, we show that the unique endemic equilibrium is globally attractive under certain conditions. Our results really improve and enrich the results in Li et al (2014) [14]. Interestingly, the basic reproduction number R0 bears no relation to the degree-dependent birth, but our simulations indicate that the degree-dependent birth does affect the epidemic dynamics. Furthermore, we find that quarantine plays a more active role than vaccination in controlling the disease.

  3. Population consequences of reproductive decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, C; Reynolds, J D; Sutherland, W J

    2000-07-07

    Behaviour can be a key component of animal population ecology yet the population consequences of behavioural decisions are poorly understood. We conducted a behavioural and demographic study of the bitterling Rhodeus sericeus, a freshwater fish that spawns in live unionid mussels. We used a population model incorporating game theory decisions and measurements of demographic parameters in order to provide predictions of population size among 13 populations of this fish. Our model predicted that the observed behavioural spawning decisions, while maximizing individual fitness, cause a significant 6% reduction in population size compared with randomly distributed spawnings. We discuss our findings in the context of the population consequences of adaptive behaviour.

  4. Beyond R0: demographic models for variability of lifetime reproductive output.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hal Caswell

    Full Text Available The net reproductive rate R0 measures the expected lifetime reproductive output of an individual, and plays an important role in demography, ecology, evolution, and epidemiology. Well-established methods exist to calculate it from age- or stage-classified demographic data. As an expectation, R0 provides no information on variability; empirical measurements of lifetime reproduction universally show high levels of variability, and often positive skewness among individuals. This is often interpreted as evidence of heterogeneity, and thus of an opportunity for natural selection. However, variability provides evidence of heterogeneity only if it exceeds the level of variability to be expected in a cohort of identical individuals all experiencing the same vital rates. Such comparisons require a way to calculate the statistics of lifetime reproduction from demographic data. Here, a new approach is presented, using the theory of Markov chains with rewards, obtaining all the moments of the distribution of lifetime reproduction. The approach applies to age- or stage-classified models, to constant, periodic, or stochastic environments, and to any kind of reproductive schedule. As examples, I analyze data from six empirical studies, of a variety of animal and plant taxa (nematodes, polychaetes, humans, and several species of perennial plants.

  5. Environmental vs. demographic variability in stochastic lattice predator-prey models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tauber, Uwe C.

    2014-03-01

    In contrast to the neutral population cycles of the deterministic mean-field Lotka-Volterra rate equations, including spatial structure and stochastic noise in models for predator-prey interactions yields complex spatio-temporal structures associated with long-lived erratic population oscillations. Environmental variability in the form of quenched spatial randomness in the predation rates results in more localized activity patches. Population fluctuations in rare favorable regions in turn cause a remarkable increase in the asymptotic densities of both predators and prey. Very intriguing features are found when variable interaction rates are affixed to individual particles rather than lattice sites. Stochastic dynamics with demographic variability in conjunction with inheritable predation efficiencies generate non-trivial time evolution for the predation rate distributions, yet with overall essentially neutral optimization.

  6. Improving the accuracy of demographic and molecular clock model comparison while accommodating phylogenetic uncertainty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baele, Guy; Lemey, Philippe; Bedford, Trevor; Rambaut, Andrew; Suchard, Marc A; Alekseyenko, Alexander V

    2012-09-01

    Recent developments in marginal likelihood estimation for model selection in the field of Bayesian phylogenetics and molecular evolution have emphasized the poor performance of the harmonic mean estimator (HME). Although these studies have shown the merits of new approaches applied to standard normally distributed examples and small real-world data sets, not much is currently known concerning the performance and computational issues of these methods when fitting complex evolutionary and population genetic models to empirical real-world data sets. Further, these approaches have not yet seen widespread application in the field due to the lack of implementations of these computationally demanding techniques in commonly used phylogenetic packages. We here investigate the performance of some of these new marginal likelihood estimators, specifically, path sampling (PS) and stepping-stone (SS) sampling for comparing models of demographic change and relaxed molecular clocks, using synthetic data and real-world examples for which unexpected inferences were made using the HME. Given the drastically increased computational demands of PS and SS sampling, we also investigate a posterior simulation-based analogue of Akaike's information criterion (AIC) through Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), a model comparison approach that shares with the HME the appealing feature of having a low computational overhead over the original MCMC analysis. We confirm that the HME systematically overestimates the marginal likelihood and fails to yield reliable model classification and show that the AICM performs better and may be a useful initial evaluation of model choice but that it is also, to a lesser degree, unreliable. We show that PS and SS sampling substantially outperform these estimators and adjust the conclusions made concerning previous analyses for the three real-world data sets that we reanalyzed. The methods used in this article are now available in BEAST, a powerful user

  7. Das causas às conseqüências econômicas da transição demográfica no Brasil From the causes to the economic consequences of the demographic transition in Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paulo de Tarso Almeida Paiva

    2005-12-01

    Full Text Available As relações entre crescimento populacional e desenvolvimento desafiam estudiosos por muito tempo e referem-se tanto aos impactos do crescimento e estrutura da população sobre o crescimento e a distribuição da renda (crescimento econômico, quanto sobre os impactos do crescimento econômico sobre o crescimento e a estrutura da população. Há cerca de três décadas discutiam-se as causas e conseqüências do crescimento populacional. Hoje, discutem-se as causas e conseqüências da transição demográfica. Muita coisa mudou no mundo e, do ponto de vista demográfico, a maior mudança foi a universalização do processo de transição demográfica. Expressões como "bomba demográfica" foram substituídas por "bônus demográfico" ou "janela de oportunidades". Este artigo pretende examinar como essas relações entre população e economia foram interpretadas e discutidas e como influenciaram o pensamento, a pesquisa acadêmica e, eventualmente, algumas propostas de políticas públicas no Brasil. O artigo procura sumariar os avanços que estão em curso na pesquisa sobre população e economia e suas implicações para as políticas públicas e o desenvolvimento.Relationships between development and population growth have challenged scholars and researchers for many years, and refer to the impacts of population growth and distribution on economic growth, and to the impacts of economic growth on population. Three decades ago the major issue was the causes and consequences of population growth. The central issue today is about the causes and consequences of demographic transition on the economy. Many changes have taken place over the last thirty years. From the demographic point of view, the most important change has been the generalization of the so-called demographic transition. "Demographic bonus" and "window of opportunities" have become substitutes for "the demographic bomb." This article describes how the relations between population

  8. Demographic models and IPCC climate projections predict the decline of an emperor penguin population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jenouvrier, Stéphanie; Caswell, Hal; Barbraud, Christophe; Holland, Marika; Stroeve, Julienne; Weimerskirch, Henri

    2009-02-10

    Studies have reported important effects of recent climate change on Antarctic species, but there has been to our knowledge no attempt to explicitly link those results to forecasted population responses to climate change. Antarctic sea ice extent (SIE) is projected to shrink as concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs) increase, and emperor penguins (Aptenodytes forsteri) are extremely sensitive to these changes because they use sea ice as a breeding, foraging and molting habitat. We project emperor penguin population responses to future sea ice changes, using a stochastic population model that combines a unique long-term demographic dataset (1962-2005) from a colony in Terre Adélie, Antarctica and projections of SIE from General Circulation Models (GCM) of Earth's climate included in the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment report. We show that the increased frequency of warm events associated with projected decreases in SIE will reduce the population viability. The probability of quasi-extinction (a decline of 95% or more) is at least 36% by 2100. The median population size is projected to decline from approximately 6,000 to approximately 400 breeding pairs over this period. To avoid extinction, emperor penguins will have to adapt, migrate or change the timing of their growth stages. However, given the future projected increases in GHGs and its effect on Antarctic climate, evolution or migration seem unlikely for such long lived species at the remote southern end of the Earth.

  9. Decision model on the demographic profile for tuberculosis control using fuzzy logic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laisa Ribeiro de Sá

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available This study aimed to describe the relationship between demographic factors and the involvement of tuberculosis by applying a decision support model based on fuzzy logic to classify the regions as priority and non-priority in the city of João Pessoa, state of Paraíba (PB. As data source, we used the Notifiable Diseases Information System between 2009 and 2011. We chose the descriptive analysis, relative risk (RR, spatial distribution and fuzzy logic. The total of 1,245 cases remained in the study, accounting for 37.02% of cases in 2009. High and low risk clusters were identified, and the RR was higher among men (8.47, with 12 clusters, and among those uneducated (11.65, with 13 clusters. To demonstrate the functionality of the model was elected the year with highest number of cases, and the municipality district with highest population. The methodology identified priority areas, guiding managers to make decisions that respect the local particularities.

  10. Demographic Models for Projecting Population and Migration: Methods for African Historical Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patrick Manning

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available This study presents methods for projecting population and migration over time in cases were empirical data are missing or undependable. The methods are useful for cases in which the researcher has details of population size and structure for a limited period of time (most obviously, the end point, with scattered evidence on other times. It enables estimation of population size, including its structure in age, sex, and status, either forward or backward in time. The program keeps track of all the details. The calculated data can be reported or sampled and compared to empirical findings at various times and places to expected values based on other procedures of estimation. The application of these general methods that is developed here is the projection of African populations backwards in time from 1950, since 1950 is the first date for which consistently strong demographic estimates are available for national-level populations all over the African continent. The models give particular attention to migration through enslavement, which was highly important in Africa from 1650 to 1900. Details include a sensitivity analysis showing relative significance of input variables and techniques for calibrating various dimensions of the projection with each other. These same methods may be applicable to quite different historical situations, as long as the data conform in structure to those considered here.

  11. MODELING FOR DEMOGRAPHIC AND REGIONAL PREVALENCE AND TRENDS OF SMOKING IN THAI MALES.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lim, Apiradee; McNeil, Don

    2016-03-01

    This study aimed to describe using national survey data the demographic and regional prevalence and trends of smoking in Thai males during the past 25 years. Data from eight national surveys conducted by the National Statistics Office from 1986 to 2011 were used to examine the prevalence of smoking. Males aged 15 and older were included in this study. Logistic regression was used to model smoking patterns, according to year of survey, age group, urbanization, and Public Health Area (PHA). The prevalence of smoking among males aged 15 years and older in 2011 was 38.4%. Sharply increasing smoking prevalence was found in the 15-24 years-old age group in all surveys. Before survey year 1999, the prevalence of smoking started to level off near retirement age, and subsequently, it leveled off after 40 years of age. The prevalence of smoking in all age groups decreased after 1986 except in the 15-19 years-old age group. Higher prevalence of smoking was found in rural areas. Males from the Northeast and the lower South regions had the highest prevalence. More effective anti-smoking policies should focus on males aged below 25 years to reduce the increasing prevalence of smoking in this group.

  12. Consequences of spatial autocorrelation for niche-based models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Segurado, P.; Araújo, Miguel B.; Kunin, W. E.

    2006-01-01

    variables, as measured by Moran's I, was analysed and compared between models. The effects of systematic subsampling of the data set and the inclusion of a contagion term to deal with spatial autocorrelation in models were assessed with projections made with GLM, as it was with this method that estimates...... were vulnerable to the effects of spatial autocorrelation. 5.  The procedures utilized to reduce the effects of spatial autocorrelation had varying degrees of success. Subsampling was partially effective in avoiding the inflation effect, whereas the inclusion of a contagion term fully eliminated......1.  Spatial autocorrelation is an important source of bias in most spatial analyses. We explored the bias introduced by spatial autocorrelation on the explanatory and predictive power of species' distribution models, and make recommendations for dealing with the problem. 2.  Analyses were based...

  13. Consequences of nonconformist behaviors in a continuous opinion model

    CERN Document Server

    Vieira, Allan R; Crokidakis, Nuno

    2016-01-01

    We investigate opinion formation in a kinetic exchange opinion model, where opinions are represented by numbers in the real interval $[-1,1]$ and agents are typified by the individual degree of conviction about the opinion that they support. Opinions evolve through pairwise interactions governed by competitive positive and negative couplings, that promote imitation and dissent, respectively. The model contemplates also another type of nonconformity such that agents can occasionally choose their opinions independently of the interactions with other agents. The steady states of the model as a function of the parameters that describe conviction, dissent and independence are analyzed, with particular emphasis on the emergence of extreme opinions. Then, we characterize the possible ordered and disordered phases and the occurrence or suppression of phase transitions that arise spontaneously due to the disorder introduced by the heterogeneity of the agents and/or their interactions.

  14. A new interacting two-fluid model and its consequences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharov, G. S.; Bhattacharya, S.; Pan, S.; Nunes, R. C.; Chakraborty, S.

    2017-04-01

    In the background of a homogeneous and isotropic space-time with zero spatial curvature, we consider interacting scenarios between two barotropic fluids, one is the pressureless dark matter and the other one is dark energy (DE), in which the equation of state (EoS) in DE is either constant or time-dependent. In particular, for constant EoS in DE, we show that the evolution equations for both fluids can be analytically solved. For all these scenarios, the model parameters have been constrained using the current astronomical observations from Type Ia supernovae, Hubble parameter measurements and baryon acoustic oscillation distance measurements. Our analysis shows that both for constant and variable EoS in DE, a very small but non-zero interaction in the dark sector is favoured while the EoS in DE can predict a slight phantom nature, i.e. the EoS in DE can cross the phantom divide line '-1'. On the other hand, although the models with variable EoS describe the observations better, the Akaike Information Criterion supports models with minimal number of parameters. However, it is found that all the models are very close to the Λ cold dark matter cosmology.

  15. Gender consequences of a national performance-based funding model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Mathias Wullum

    2015-01-01

    This article investigates the extent to which the Danish Bibliometric Research Indicator (BRI) reflects the performance of men and women differently. The model is based on a differentiated counting of peer-reviewed publications, awarding three and eight points for contributions to ‘well-regarded’...... privileges collaborative research, which disadvantages women due to gender differences in collaborative network relations.......This article investigates the extent to which the Danish Bibliometric Research Indicator (BRI) reflects the performance of men and women differently. The model is based on a differentiated counting of peer-reviewed publications, awarding three and eight points for contributions to ‘well......-regarded’ and highly selective journals and book publishers, and 1 and 5 points for equivalent scientific contributions via ‘normal level’ channels. On the basis of bibliometric data, the study shows that the BRI considerably widens the existing gender gap in researcher performance, since men on average receive more...

  16. Consequence of reputation in the Sznajd consensus model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Crokidakis, Nuno, E-mail: nuno@if.uff.b [Instituto de Fisica, Universidade Federal Fluminense, Av. Litoranea s/n, 24210-340 Niteroi, RJ (Brazil); Departamento de Fisica, I3N - Universidade de Aveiro, 3810-193 Aveiro (Portugal); Forgerini, Fabricio L., E-mail: fabricio_forgerini@ufam.edu.b [Departamento de Fisica, I3N - Universidade de Aveiro, 3810-193 Aveiro (Portugal); ISB - Universidade Federal do Amazonas, 69460-000 Coari, AM (Brazil)

    2010-07-26

    In this work we study a modified version of the Sznajd sociophysics model. In particular we introduce reputation, a mechanism that limits the capacity of persuasion of the agents. The reputation is introduced as a score which is time-dependent, and its introduction avoid dictatorship (all spins parallel) for a wide range of parameters. The relaxation time follows a log-normal-like distribution. In addition, we show that the usual phase transition also occurs, as in the standard model, and it depends on the initial concentration of individuals following an opinion, occurring at a initial density of up spins greater than 1/2. The transition point is determined by means of a finite-size scaling analysis.

  17. Probabilistic consequence model of accidenal or intentional chemical releases.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chang, Y.-S.; Samsa, M. E.; Folga, S. M.; Hartmann, H. M.

    2008-06-02

    In this work, general methodologies for evaluating the impacts of large-scale toxic chemical releases are proposed. The potential numbers of injuries and fatalities, the numbers of hospital beds, and the geographical areas rendered unusable during and some time after the occurrence and passage of a toxic plume are estimated on a probabilistic basis. To arrive at these estimates, historical accidental release data, maximum stored volumes, and meteorological data were used as inputs into the SLAB accidental chemical release model. Toxic gas footprints from the model were overlaid onto detailed population and hospital distribution data for a given region to estimate potential impacts. Output results are in the form of a generic statistical distribution of injuries and fatalities associated with specific toxic chemicals and regions of the United States. In addition, indoor hazards were estimated, so the model can provide contingency plans for either shelter-in-place or evacuation when an accident occurs. The stochastic distributions of injuries and fatalities are being used in a U.S. Department of Homeland Security-sponsored decision support system as source terms for a Monte Carlo simulation that evaluates potential measures for mitigating terrorist threats. This information can also be used to support the formulation of evacuation plans and to estimate damage and cleanup costs.

  18. Identity of organizational conflict framework: Evaluating model factors based on demographic characteristics in Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kaveh Hasani

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Normal 0 false false false EN-US X-NONE FA Purpose: The purpose of this study was to Identity of organizational conflict framework:  Evaluating model factors based on demographic characteristics in Iran. Design/methodology/approach: Research method is descriptive - applied. The statistical population includes all of the employees in Iran`s Azad Universites with 600 individuals at the time of the study and statistical sample included 234 individuals who were selected using Morgan table. Beside this study, descriptive and inferential statistics were used. Also, reliability approved through Cronbach alpha (0.87. Then, to detect the dimensions causes of organizational conflict, factor analysis in line with the main components was used. Through exploratory analysis, ten principal factors identified. Thereafter, confirmatory factor analysis reconfirmed these factors. Findings and originality/value: The results of study showed that there is no significant difference between the causes of organizational conflict based on the gender. Also, there are significant differences among the causes of organizational conflict based on the variables of age, education and work experience. Research limitations/implications: we adopt a cross sectional research design and as a result inferences regarding causality cannot be drawn. Future studies following a longitudinal design could provide a more dynamic perspective and contribute further to this stream of research. Originality/value: A lot of researches about the conflict management styles, organizational conflict's effects, etc. are conducted by different researchers, but a handful of researches have been conducted in the field of resources and causes of organizational conflict and this is one of the reasons that it is important for researchers to address this issue.

  19. Economic implications of Japan's aging population: a macro-economic demographic modeling approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ogawa, N

    1982-01-01

    This paper utilizes a macroeconomic demographic model to analyze the probable impact of population aging on various public programs in Japan. Rapid fertility decline aided by mortality decline has caused the proportion of the Japanese population aged 65 and over to increase from 4.9% in 1950 to 9.0% in 1980. A population projection based on the 1975 population census assumes a recovery of fertility from a total fertility rate (TFR) of 1.9 in 1976 to 2.16 in 1980 and a gradual decline to 2.1 by 1987, while an alternative projection assumes a continuing fertility decline to a TFR of 1.65 in 2025. According to these assumptions, in 2025 18.12% to 21.29% of the total population would be aged 65 or over and 38.66% to 43.80% of the working age population would be aged 45-64. A macroeconomic neoclassical growth model with some Keynesian features was formulated to evaluate the future impact of population aging on social security programs. Population changes are transmitted to economic variables in the model through the supply of labor, level of savings, public health care plans, and old-age pension schemes. The simulation experiments included the 2 population projections and 2 alternative production functions, 1 with the quality of labor incorporated and 1 without. The results indicated that, regardless of the population projection and production function used, the growth of the economy is likely to slow to 1 or 0% in the beginning of the next century due to decreased growth of the labor force and a change in its quality due to age-compositional variations. Public health insurance schemes and pension plans will require increasing financial resources as a result of accelerated population aging; depending on the choice of benefit levels, the proportion of national income allocated to them is expected to range from 14%-40% in the year 2010. Per capita gross national product will continue to grow despite decreased economic growth, but savings might be adversely affected if the

  20. Niche variability and its consequences for species distribution modeling.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matt J Michel

    Full Text Available When species distribution models (SDMs are used to predict how a species will respond to environmental change, an important assumption is that the environmental niche of the species is conserved over evolutionary time-scales. Empirical studies conducted at ecological time-scales, however, demonstrate that the niche of some species can vary in response to environmental change. We use habitat and locality data of five species of stream fishes collected across seasons to examine the effects of niche variability on the accuracy of projections from Maxent, a popular SDM. We then compare these predictions to those from an alternate method of creating SDM projections in which a transformation of the environmental data to similar scales is applied. The niche of each species varied to some degree in response to seasonal variation in environmental variables, with most species shifting habitat use in response to changes in canopy cover or flow rate. SDMs constructed from the original environmental data accurately predicted the occurrences of one species across all seasons and a subset of seasons for two other species. A similar result was found for SDMs constructed from the transformed environmental data. However, the transformed SDMs produced better models in ten of the 14 total SDMs, as judged by ratios of mean probability values at known presences to mean probability values at all other locations. Niche variability should be an important consideration when using SDMs to predict future distributions of species because of its prevalence among natural populations. The framework we present here may potentially improve these predictions by accounting for such variability.

  1. Applying Retrospective Demographic Models to Assess Sustainable Use: the Maya Management of Xa'an Palms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrea Martínez-Ballesté

    2005-12-01

    Full Text Available Xa'an palm (Sabal yapa has been used to thatch traditional Maya houses for over 3000 years. In the Yucatan Peninsula, this palm has been introduced to pasturelands, maize fields (milpas, and homegardens. These and other traditional management systems are usually believed to be sustainable, but there is as yet little evidence to support this hypothesis. Demographic models have been used for this purpose, mainly focusing on population growth rate (λ. So far, retrospective analysis has not been applied, even though it examines how changes in the the life cycle of a species, caused by different management regimes, affect its λ. In this study, we assess whether ecologically sustainable use of xa'an occurs in homegardens, pasturelands, and milpas, and if so, how it is achieved. We constructed matrix population models for four populations of xa'an that were followed for 3 years, and then conducted a retrospective analysis on them. Management in homegardens seems to be oriented to increasing the availability of xa'an leaves, favoring the survival of seedlings, and increasing the density of harvestable-sized palms. However, in the milpa and the pastureland, the population size structure resembles that of unmanaged populations. Our λ values suggest that the traditional use of xa'an in all the studied management regimes is sustainable. Nevertheless, the processes that lead to sustainable use are different in each system, as shown by our retrospective analysis. Although fecundity contributes positively to λ only in homegardens, permanence and growth maintain palm populations at an equilibrium in the pastureland and in the milpa, respectively. Between-year climatic differences had a smaller impact on λ than management practices, which may vary from one year to another, leading to different balances in the sustainable use of the populations involved. Even though no significant differences were found in λ values, Maya achieve sustainable use of xa

  2. ITER transient consequences for material damage: modelling versus experiments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bazylev, B [Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe, IHM, P O Box 3640, 76021 Karlsruhe (Germany); Janeschitz, G [Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe, Fusion, P O Box 3640, 76021 Karlsruhe (Germany); Landman, I [Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe, IHM, P O Box 3640, 76021 Karlsruhe (Germany); Pestchanyi, S [Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe, IHM, P O Box 3640, 76021 Karlsruhe (Germany); Loarte, A [EFDA Close Support Unit Garching, Boltmannstr 2, D-85748 Garching (Germany); Federici, G [ITER International Team, Garching Working Site, Boltmannstr 2, D-85748 Garching (Germany); Merola, M [ITER International Team, Garching Working Site, Boltmannstr 2, D-85748 Garching (Germany); Linke, J [Forschungszentrum Juelich, EURATOM-Association, D-52425 Juelich (Germany); Zhitlukhin, A [SRC RF TRINITI, Troitsk, 142190, Moscow Region (Russian Federation); Podkovyrov, V [SRC RF TRINITI, Troitsk, 142190, Moscow Region (Russian Federation); Klimov, N [SRC RF TRINITI, Troitsk, 142190, Moscow Region (Russian Federation); Safronov, V [SRC RF TRINITI, Troitsk, 142190, Moscow Region (Russian Federation)

    2007-03-15

    Carbon-fibre composite (CFC) and tungsten macrobrush armours are foreseen as PFC for the ITER divertor. In ITER the main mechanisms of metallic armour damage remain surface melting and melt motion erosion. In the case of CFC armour, due to rather different heat conductivities of CFC fibres a noticeable erosion of the PAN bundles may occur at rather small heat loads. Experiments carried out in the plasma gun facilities QSPA-T for the ITER like edge localized mode (ELM) heat load also demonstrated significant erosion of the frontal and lateral brush edges. Numerical simulations of the CFC and tungsten (W) macrobrush target damage accounting for the heat loads at the face and lateral brush edges were carried out for QSPA-T conditions using the three-dimensional (3D) code PHEMOBRID. The modelling results of CFC damage are in a good qualitative and quantitative agreement with the experiments. Estimation of the droplet splashing caused by the Kelvin-Helmholtz (KH) instability was performed.

  3. Improving Demographic Components of Integrated Assessment Models: The Effect of Changes in Population Composition by Household Characteristics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brian C. O' Neill

    2006-08-09

    This report describes results of the research project on "Improving Demographic Components of Integrated Assessment Models: The Effect of Changes in Population Composition by Household Characteristics". The overall objective of this project was to improve projections of energy demand and associated greenhouse gas emissions by taking into account demographic factors currently not incorporated in Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) of global climate change. We proposed to examine the potential magnitude of effects on energy demand of changes in the composition of populations by household characteristics for three countries: the U.S., China, and Indonesia. For each country, we planned to analyze household energy use survey data to estimate relationships between household characteristics and energy use; develop a new set of detailed household projections for each country; and combine these analyses to produce new projections of energy demand illustrating the potential importance of consideration of households.

  4. A coupled phylogeographical and species distribution modelling approach recovers the demographical history of a Neotropical seasonally dry forest tree species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collevatti, Rosane G; Terribile, Levi Carina; Lima-Ribeiro, Matheus S; Nabout, João C; de Oliveira, Guilherme; Rangel, Thiago F; Rabelo, Suelen G; Diniz-Filho, Jose A F

    2012-12-01

    We investigated here the demographical history of Tabebuia impetiginosa (Bignoniaceae) to understand the dynamics of the disjunct geographical distribution of South American seasonally dry forests (SDFs), based on coupling an ensemble approach encompassing hindcasting species distribution modelling and statistical phylogeographical analysis. We sampled 17 populations (280 individuals) in central Brazil and analysed the polymorphisms at chloroplast (trnS-trnG, psbA-trnH, and ycf6-trnC intergenic spacers) and nuclear (ITS nrDNA) genomes. Phylogenetic analyses based on median-joining network showed no haplotype sharing among population but strong evidence of incomplete lineage sorting. Coalescent analyses showed historical constant populations size, negligible gene flow among populations, and an ancient time to most recent common ancestor dated from ~4.7 ± 1.1 Myr BP. Most divergences dated from the Lower Pleistocene, and no signal of important population size reduction was found in coalescent tree and tests of demographical expansion. Demographical scenarios were built based on past geographical range dynamic models, using two a priori biogeographical hypotheses ('Pleistocene Arc' and 'Amazonian SDF expansion') and on two additional hypotheses suggested by the palaeodistribution modelling built with several algorithms for distribution modelling and palaeoclimatic data. The simulation of these demographical scenarios showed that the pattern of diversity found so far for T. impetiginosa is in consonance with a palaeodistribution expansion during the last glacial maximum (LGM, 21 kyr BP), strongly suggesting that the current disjunct distribution of T. impetiginosa in SDFs may represent a climatic relict of a once more wide distribution.

  5. The IWG (Interagency Working Group) model for the heterosexual spread of HIV and the demographic impact of the AIDS epidemic

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stanley, E.A. (Los Alamos National Lab., NM (USA)); Seitz, S.T. (Illinois Univ., Urbana, IL (USA)); Way, P.O.; Johnson, P.D. (Bureau of the Census, Washington, DC (USA)); Curry, T.F. (Air Force Academy, CO (USA))

    1990-01-01

    This paper presents the State Department's Interagency Working Group (IWG) model for the spread of HIV. The model is fully operational for Pattern 2 (heterosexual blood transmission) and Pattern 3 (heterosexual, homosexual, and IV drug transmission) countries. This model was developed for various uses, including technical research, policy analysis, and support for decision making. Research uses include studying patterns of HIV spread, assessing the relative effect of different processes on the spread of HIV, examining the demographic impact of HIV infections, and comparing the potential impact of behavioral versus medical intervention strategies. The model will be used in workshops where policy makers and health officials can do hands-on scenario analyses, gain qualitative insights into the possible long-term-epidemiological and demographic impact of HIV, gauge the uncertainties in predictions for the future, and study the impact of HIV, gauge the uncertainties in predictions for the future, and study the impact that intervention strategies are likely to have. The computational model uses a deterministic system of differential equations and runs on a 286- or a 386-based IBM-compatible machine under Microsoft Windows. The program requires an input ASCII (text) file to run; all parameters used by the model are input through this file and, therefore, are user-accessible. The software is user-friendly, mouse-driven, and allows for interactive manipulation of input data and visualization and processing of model outputs. 15 refs., 13 figs., 1 tab.

  6. Demographic factors and cancer mortality. A mathematical model for cancer mortality in Denmark 1943-78

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Juel, K

    1983-01-01

    Deaths from cancer in Denmark from 1943-1978 were extracted from the Danish National Death Register at the Danish Institute for Clinical Epidemiology. This paper illustrates the relationship between demographic factors and mortality from a large group of cancers, which increases progressively from...... likelihood estimates of b and k were found iteratively for each of the 280 combinations of sex--cancer site--residence--cohort. For fixed sex and cancer site the relationship between age, residence and cohort was examined. It appeared that k was independent of residence. For 10 of the male cancers and 12...

  7. Displacement of sexual partnerships in trials of sexual behavior interventions: A model-based assessment of consequences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCormick, Alethea W; Abuelezam, Nadia N; Fussell, Thomas; Seage, George R; Lipsitch, Marc

    2017-09-01

    We investigated the impact of the displacement of sexual activity from adherent recipients of an intervention to others within or outside a trial population on the results from hypothetical trials of different sexual behavior interventions. A short-term model of HIV-prevention interventions that lead to female rejection of male partnership requests showed the impact of displacement expected at the start of a trial. An agent-based model, with sexual mixing and other South African specific demographics, evaluated consequences of displacement for sexual behavior interventions targeting young females in South Africa. This model measured the cumulative incidence among adherent, non-adherent, control and non-enrolled females in a hypothetical trial of HIV prevention. When males made more than one attempt to seek a partnership, interventions reduced short-term HIV infection risk among adherent females, but increased it among non-adherent females as well as controls, non-enrolled (females eligible for the trial but not chosen to participate) and ineligible females (females that did not qualify for the trial due to age). The impact of displacement depends on the intervention and the adherence. In both models, the risk to individuals who are not members of the adherent intervention group will increase with displacement leading to a biased calculation for the effect estimates for the trial. Likewise, intent-to-treat effect estimates become nonlinear functions of the proportion adherent. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. Testing three evolutionary models of the demographic transition: Patterns of fertility and age at marriage in urban South India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shenk, Mary K

    2009-01-01

    Over the last three decades many authors have addressed the demographic transition from the perspective of evolutionary theory. Some authors have emphasized parental investment factors such as the costs of raising children, others have emphasized the effects of mortality and other forms of risk, and others have emphasized the biased transmission of cultural norms from people of high status. Yet the literature says little about the relative strengths of each of these types of motivations or about which ones are more likely to serve as the primary impetus for large-scale demographic change. In this paper, I examine how each of these factors has influenced the demographic transition in urban South India during the course of the 20th century using two measures of fertility transition: number of surviving children and age at marriage. I find that investment-related, risk-related, and cultural transmission predictors all have significant individual effects on the outcome variables, which persist when they are entered in combination. When the three types of predictors are compared, however, investment-related models appear to provide more robust explanations for patterns in both fertility and age of marriage. 2009 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

  9. Consequence modeling of fire on Methane storage tanks in a gas refinery

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sara Shahedi ali abadi

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: using fossil fuels, some hazards such as explosion and fire are probable. This study was aimed to consequence modeling of fire on Methane storage tanks in a gas refinery using analyzing the risk, and modeling and evaluating the related consequences. Method: Hazard analysis by PHA was used to choosing the worst-case scenario. Then, causes of the scenario were determined by FTA. After that, consequence modeling by the PHAST software was applied for the consequence analysis. Results: Based on some criteria, the fire of methane gas tank (V-100 was selected as the worst-case scenario at the refinery. The qualitative fault tree showed three factors including mechanical, process, and human failures contribute in gas leakage. The leakage size and weather conditions were effective on the distance of radiation. Using consequence modeling, thermal radiation was considered as the major outcome of the incident. Finally, for outcome evaluating, probit equations were used to quantify losses and the percentage of fatalities due to the methane gas leakage and fire occurrence. The maximum number of fatalities caused by fire was obtained 23 persons. Conclusions: In conclusion, the methane gas vessel in the refinery can be considered as the main center of hazard, therefore the implementation of the safety rules, eliminating mechanical failures, personal protection and education, and Effective measures to prevent and fighting of fire are proposed for decreasing the probable losses and fatalities.

  10. Demographic model of the Swiss cattle population for the years 2009-2011 stratified by gender, age and production type.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sara Schärrer

    Full Text Available Demographic composition and dynamics of animal and human populations are important determinants for the transmission dynamics of infectious disease and for the effect of infectious disease or environmental disasters on productivity. In many circumstances, demographic data are not available or of poor quality. Since 1999 Switzerland has been recording cattle movements, births, deaths and slaughter in an animal movement database (AMD. The data present in the AMD offers the opportunity for analysing and understanding the dynamic of the Swiss cattle population. A dynamic population model can serve as a building block for future disease transmission models and help policy makers in developing strategies regarding animal health, animal welfare, livestock management and productivity. The Swiss cattle population was therefore modelled using a system of ordinary differential equations. The model was stratified by production type (dairy or beef, age and gender (male and female calves: 0-1 year, heifers and young bulls: 1-2 years, cows and bulls: older than 2 years. The simulation of the Swiss cattle population reflects the observed pattern accurately. Parameters were optimized on the basis of the goodness-of-fit (using the Powell algorithm. The fitted rates were compared with calculated rates from the AMD and differed only marginally. This gives confidence in the fitted rates of parameters that are not directly deductible from the AMD (e.g. the proportion of calves that are moved from the dairy system to fattening plants.

  11. Projection models for health-effects assessment in populations exposed to radioactive and nonradioactive pollutants. Volume I. Introduction to the SPAHR demographic model for health risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Collins, J.J.; Lundy, R.T.; Grahn, D.; Ginevan, M.E.

    1982-09-01

    The Simulation Package for the Analysis of Health Risk (SPAHR) is a computer software package based upon a demographic model for health risk projections. The model extends several health risk projection models by making realistic assumptions about the population at risk, and thus represents a distinct improvement over previous models. Complete documentation for use of SPAHR is contained in this five-volume publication. The demographic model in SPAHR estimates population response to environmental toxic exposures. Latency of response, changing dose level over time, competing risks from other causes of death, and population structure can be incorporated into SPAHR to project health risks. Risks are measured by morbid years, number of deaths, and loss of life expectancy. Comparisons of estimates of excess deaths demonstrate that previous health risk projection models may have underestimated excess deaths by a factor of from 2 to 10, depending on the pollutant and the exposure scenario. The software supporting the use of the demographic model is designed to be user oriented. Complex risk projections are made by responding to a series of prompts generated by the package. The flexibility and ease of use of SPAHR make it an important contribution to existing models and software packages. The first volume presents the theory behind the SPAHR health risk projection model and several applications of the model to actual pollution episodes. The elements required for an effective health risk projection model are specified, and the models that have been used to date in health risk projections are outlined. These are compared with the demographic model, whose formulation is described in detail. Examples of the application of air pollution and radiation dose-response functions are included in order to demonstrate the estimation of future mortality and morbidity levels and the range of variation in excess deaths that occurs when populations structure is changed.

  12. Consequence Based Design. An approach for integrating computational collaborative models (Integrated Dynamic Models) in the building design phase

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Negendahl, Kristoffer

    affect the design process and collaboration between building designers and simulationists. Within the limits of applying the approach of Consequence based design to five case studies, followed by documentation based on interviews, surveys and project related documentations derived from internal reports...... that secures validity and quality assurance with a simulationist while sustaining autonomous control of building design with the building designer. Consequence based design is defined by the specific use of integrated dynamic models. These models include the parametric capabilities of a visual programming tool...... relies on various advancements in the area of integrated dynamic models. It also relies on the application and test of the approach in practice to evaluate the Consequence based design and the use of integrated dynamic models. As a result, the Consequence based design approach has been applied in five...

  13. Formulating a Historical and Demographic Model of Recent Human Evolution Based on Resequencing Data from Noncoding Regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laval, Guillaume; Patin, Etienne; Barreiro, Luis B.; Quintana-Murci, Lluís

    2010-01-01

    Background Estimating the historical and demographic parameters that characterize modern human populations is a fundamental part of reconstructing the recent history of our species. In addition, the development of a model of human evolution that can best explain neutral genetic diversity is required to identify confidently regions of the human genome that have been targeted by natural selection. Methodology/Principal Findings We have resequenced 20 independent noncoding autosomal regions dispersed throughout the genome in 213 individuals from different continental populations, corresponding to a total of ∼6 Mb of diploid resequencing data. We used these data to explore and co-estimate an extensive range of historical and demographic parameters with a statistical framework that combines the evaluation of multiple models of human evolution via a best-fit approach, followed by an Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) analysis. From a methodological standpoint, evaluating the accuracy of the parameter co-estimation allowed us to identify the most accurate set of statistics to be used for the estimation of each of the different historical and demographic parameters characterizing recent human evolution. Conclusions/Significance Our results support a model in which modern humans left Africa through a single major dispersal event occurring ∼60,000 years ago, corresponding to a drastic reduction of ∼5 times the effective population size of the ancestral African population of ∼13,800 individuals. Subsequently, the ancestors of modern Europeans and East Asians diverged much later, ∼22,500 years ago, from the population of ancestral migrants. This late diversification of Eurasians after the African exodus points to the occurrence of a long maturation phase in which the ancestral Eurasian population was not yet diversified. PMID:20421973

  14. Formulating a historical and demographic model of recent human evolution based on resequencing data from noncoding regions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guillaume Laval

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Estimating the historical and demographic parameters that characterize modern human populations is a fundamental part of reconstructing the recent history of our species. In addition, the development of a model of human evolution that can best explain neutral genetic diversity is required to identify confidently regions of the human genome that have been targeted by natural selection. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We have resequenced 20 independent noncoding autosomal regions dispersed throughout the genome in 213 individuals from different continental populations, corresponding to a total of approximately 6 Mb of diploid resequencing data. We used these data to explore and co-estimate an extensive range of historical and demographic parameters with a statistical framework that combines the evaluation of multiple models of human evolution via a best-fit approach, followed by an Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC analysis. From a methodological standpoint, evaluating the accuracy of the parameter co-estimation allowed us to identify the most accurate set of statistics to be used for the estimation of each of the different historical and demographic parameters characterizing recent human evolution. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our results support a model in which modern humans left Africa through a single major dispersal event occurring approximately 60,000 years ago, corresponding to a drastic reduction of approximately 5 times the effective population size of the ancestral African population of approximately 13,800 individuals. Subsequently, the ancestors of modern Europeans and East Asians diverged much later, approximately 22,500 years ago, from the population of ancestral migrants. This late diversification of Eurasians after the African exodus points to the occurrence of a long maturation phase in which the ancestral Eurasian population was not yet diversified.

  15. Environmental Consequences of Wildlife Tourism: The Use of Formalised Qualitative Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Veselý Štěpán

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents a simple qualitative model of environmental consequences of wildlife tourism. Qualitative models use just three values: Positive/Increasing, Zero/Constant and Negative/Decreasing. Such quantifiers of trends are the least information intensive. Qualitative models can be useful, since models of wildlife tourism include such variables as, for example, Biodiversity (BIO, Animals’ habituation to tourists (HAB or Plant composition change (PLA that are sometimes difficult or costly to quantify. Hence, a significant fraction of available information about wildlife tourism and its consequences is not of numerical nature, for example, if HAB is increasing then BIO is decreasing. Such equationless relations are studied in this paper. The model has 10 variables and 20 equationless pairwise interrelations among them. The model is solved and 15 solutions, that is, scenarios are obtained. All qualitative states, including the first and second qualitative derivatives with respect to time, of all variables are specified for each scenario.

  16. demogR: A Package for the Construction and Analysis of Age-structured Demographic Models in R

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James Holland Jones

    2007-08-01

    Full Text Available The analysis of matrix population models has become a fundamental tool in ecology, conservation biology, and life history theory. In this paper, I present demogR, a package for analyzing age-structured population models in R. The package includes tools for the construction and analysis of matrix population models. In addition to the standard analyses commonly used in evolutionary demography and conservation biology, demogR contains a variety of tools from classical demography. This includes the construction of period life tables, and the generation of model mortality and fertility schedules for human populations. The tools in demogR are generally applicable to age-structured populations but are particularly useful for analyzing problems in human ecology. I illustrate some of the capabilities of the package by doing an evolutionary demographic analysis of several human populations.

  17. Demographic models reveal the shape of density dependence for a specialist insect herbivore on variable host plants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Tom E X

    2007-07-01

    1. It is widely accepted that density-dependent processes play an important role in most natural populations. However, persistent challenges in our understanding of density-dependent population dynamics include evaluating the shape of the relationship between density and demographic rates (linear, concave, convex), and identifying extrinsic factors that can mediate this relationship. 2. I studied the population dynamics of the cactus bug Narnia pallidicornis on host plants (Opuntia imbricata) that varied naturally in relative reproductive effort (RRE, the proportion of meristems allocated to reproduction), an important plant quality trait. I manipulated per-plant cactus bug densities, quantified subsequent dynamics, and fit stage-structured models to the experimental data to ask if and how density influences demographic parameters. 3. In the field experiment, I found that populations with variable starting densities quickly converged upon similar growth trajectories. In the model-fitting analyses, the data strongly supported a model that defined the juvenile cactus bug retention parameter (joint probability of surviving and not dispersing) as a nonlinear decreasing function of density. The estimated shape of this relationship shifted from concave to convex with increasing host-plant RRE. 4. The results demonstrate that host-plant traits are critical sources of variation in the strength and shape of density dependence in insects, and highlight the utility of integrated experimental-theoretical approaches for identifying processes underlying patterns of change in natural populations.

  18. Advances in global sensitivity analyses of demographic-based species distribution models to address uncertainties in dynamic landscapes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ilona Naujokaitis-Lewis

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Developing a rigorous understanding of multiple global threats to species persistence requires the use of integrated modeling methods that capture processes which influence species distributions. Species distribution models (SDMs coupled with population dynamics models can incorporate relationships between changing environments and demographics and are increasingly used to quantify relative extinction risks associated with climate and land-use changes. Despite their appeal, uncertainties associated with complex models can undermine their usefulness for advancing predictive ecology and informing conservation management decisions. We developed a computationally-efficient and freely available tool (GRIP 2.0 that implements and automates a global sensitivity analysis of coupled SDM-population dynamics models for comparing the relative influence of demographic parameters and habitat attributes on predicted extinction risk. Advances over previous global sensitivity analyses include the ability to vary habitat suitability across gradients, as well as habitat amount and configuration of spatially-explicit suitability maps of real and simulated landscapes. Using GRIP 2.0, we carried out a multi-model global sensitivity analysis of a coupled SDM-population dynamics model of whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis in Mount Rainier National Park as a case study and quantified the relative influence of input parameters and their interactions on model predictions. Our results differed from the one-at-time analyses used in the original study, and we found that the most influential parameters included the total amount of suitable habitat within the landscape, survival rates, and effects of a prevalent disease, white pine blister rust. Strong interactions between habitat amount and survival rates of older trees suggests the importance of habitat in mediating the negative influences of white pine blister rust. Our results underscore the importance of considering habitat

  19. Advances in global sensitivity analyses of demographic-based species distribution models to address uncertainties in dynamic landscapes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naujokaitis-Lewis, Ilona; Curtis, Janelle M R

    2016-01-01

    Developing a rigorous understanding of multiple global threats to species persistence requires the use of integrated modeling methods that capture processes which influence species distributions. Species distribution models (SDMs) coupled with population dynamics models can incorporate relationships between changing environments and demographics and are increasingly used to quantify relative extinction risks associated with climate and land-use changes. Despite their appeal, uncertainties associated with complex models can undermine their usefulness for advancing predictive ecology and informing conservation management decisions. We developed a computationally-efficient and freely available tool (GRIP 2.0) that implements and automates a global sensitivity analysis of coupled SDM-population dynamics models for comparing the relative influence of demographic parameters and habitat attributes on predicted extinction risk. Advances over previous global sensitivity analyses include the ability to vary habitat suitability across gradients, as well as habitat amount and configuration of spatially-explicit suitability maps of real and simulated landscapes. Using GRIP 2.0, we carried out a multi-model global sensitivity analysis of a coupled SDM-population dynamics model of whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis) in Mount Rainier National Park as a case study and quantified the relative influence of input parameters and their interactions on model predictions. Our results differed from the one-at-time analyses used in the original study, and we found that the most influential parameters included the total amount of suitable habitat within the landscape, survival rates, and effects of a prevalent disease, white pine blister rust. Strong interactions between habitat amount and survival rates of older trees suggests the importance of habitat in mediating the negative influences of white pine blister rust. Our results underscore the importance of considering habitat attributes along

  20. Consequences of K Spin in the Preon Model with Preonic Charge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Senju, H.

    1992-11-01

    The symmetry between w2 and c0 (K spin symmetry) is one of important approximate global symmetries in our model. Some consequences of this symmetry are discussed, including the natural existence of cold dark matter with ΩCDM = O(1) and the existence of very massive and quasi-stable hadrons. Implications of K symmetry for CP violations are also discussed.

  1. The Consequences of Ignoring Multilevel Data Structures in Nonhierarchical Covariance Modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Julian, Marc W.

    2001-01-01

    Examined the effects of ignoring multilevel data structures in nonhierarchical covariance modeling using a Monte Carlo simulation. Results suggest that when the magnitudes of intraclass correlations are less than 0.05 and the group size is small, the consequences of ignoring the data dependence within the multilevel data structures seem to be…

  2. Modelling the consequences of increasing bioenergy demand on land and feed use

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Banse, M.A.H.; Tabeau, A.A.; Meijl, van H.; Woltjer, G.B.

    2010-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to show the consequences of a model extension towards the presentation of by-product in the production of biofuels. By-products can be used as a substitute for feed grain use in livestock production. A boost in biofuel production will also show a strong increase in the

  3. A two-temperature model for thermoelectric effects and its consequences in practical applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sellitto, A.

    2015-12-01

    In recent papers, a two-temperature model for thermoelectric effects has been introduced. That model is able to account for the difference in phonon and electron temperature and may open new lines of research in thermoelectricity. Here, we perform a scrutiny of that model in order to check its physical standing. We further provide some useful characteristic numbers which may be used in practical applications in order to reduce to a simpler level the analysis. The consequences of that model on the usual Kelvin relations are pointed out, as well.

  4. Coping strategies in Spanish older adults: a MIMIC model of socio-demographic characteristics and activity level.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rubio, Laura; Dumitrache, Cristina G; García, Alfonso J; Cordón-Pozo, Eulogio

    2016-11-02

    The aim of this study was to analyze the combined effect of socio-demographic characteristics and activity level on coping strategies and to test which of these variables has a greater impact on coping. A sample of 243 men and women aged 55-99 years old was selected from different elderly activity centers in Granada, Spain, using a convenience sampling. Associations between eight coping strategies measured by Coping Strategies Inventory and the above mentioned variables were examined using a Multiple Indicator and Multiple Causes model. Age was negatively related with problem solving, express emotions and social support. Activity level was positively related with problem solving, cognitive restructuring, express emotions and social support and it was negatively associated with social withdrawal. Gender only predicted the scores in self-criticism and living alone was related with higher emotional expression. Participation in creative activities, attending University for the third age and practicing physical exercise were related with differences in the use of several coping strategies. There is a complex relationship between socio-demographic characteristics, activity level and the coping strategies used by the elderly. It is important to understand this relationship in order to identify older adults who use ineffective coping, and to subsequently include them in intervention programs to improve their coping abilities.

  5. Towards thresholds of disaster management performance under demographic change: exploring functional relationships using agent-based modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dressler, Gunnar; Müller, Birgit; Frank, Karin; Kuhlicke, Christian

    2016-10-01

    Effective disaster management is a core feature for the protection of communities against natural disasters such as floods. Disaster management organizations (DMOs) are expected to contribute to ensuring this protection. However, what happens when their resources to cope with a flood are at stake or the intensity and frequency of the event exceeds their capacities? Many cities in the Free State of Saxony, Germany, were strongly hit by several floods in the last years and are additionally challenged by demographic change, with an ageing society and out-migration leading to population shrinkage in many parts of Saxony. Disaster management, which is mostly volunteer-based in Germany, is particularly affected by this change, leading to a loss of members. We propose an agent-based simulation model that acts as a "virtual lab" to explore the impact of various changes on disaster management performance. Using different scenarios we examine the impact of changes in personal resources of DMOs, their access to operation relevant information, flood characteristics as well as differences between geographic regions. A loss of DMOs and associated manpower caused by demographic change has the most profound impact on the performance. Especially in rural, upstream regions population decline in combination with very short lead times can put disaster management performance at risk.

  6. Soils apart from equilibrium – consequences for soil carbon balance modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Wutzler

    2006-10-01

    Full Text Available Many projections of the soil carbon sink or source are based on kinetically defined carbon pool models. Parameters of these models are often determined in a way that the steady state of the model matches observed carbon stocks. The underlying simplifying assumption is that observed carbon stocks are near equilibrium. This assumption is challenged by observations of very old soils that do still accumulate carbon. In this modelling study we explored the consequences of the case where soils are apart from equilibrium. Calculation of equilibrium states of soils that are currently accumulating small amounts of carbon were performed using the Yasso model. It was found that already very small current accumulation rates cause big changes in theoretical equilibrium stocks, which can virtually approach infinity. We conclude that soils that have been disturbed several centuries ago are not in equilibrium but in a transient state because of the slowly ongoing accumulation of the slowest pool. A first consequence is that model calibrations to current carbon stocks that assume equilibrium state, overestimate the decay rate of the slowest pool. A second consequence is that spin-up runs (simulations until equilibrium overestimate stocks of recently disturbed sites. In order to account for these consequences, we propose a transient correction. This correction prescribes a lower decay rate of the slowest pool and accounts for disturbances in the past by decreasing the spin-up-run predicted stocks to match an independent estimate of current soil carbon stocks. Application of this transient correction at a Central European beech forest site with a typical disturbance history resulted in an additional carbon fixation of 5.7±1.5 tC/ha within 100 years. Carbon storage capacity of forest soils is potentially much higher than currently assumed. Simulations that do not adequately account for the transient state of soil carbon stocks neglect a substantial amount of

  7. Why do women deliver at home? Multilevel modeling of Ethiopian National Demographic and Health Survey data.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Henock Yebyo

    Full Text Available Despite of the existing intensive efforts to improve maternal health in Ethiopia, the proportion of birth delivered at home remains high and is still the top priority among the national health threats.The study aimed to examine effects of individual women and community-level factors of women's decision on place of delivery in Ethiopia.Data were obtained from the nationally representative 2011 Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey (EDHS which used a two-stage cluster sampling design with rural-urban and regions as strata. The EDHS collected data from a big sample size but our study focused on a sample of 7,908 women whose most recent birth was within five years preceding 2011 and 576 communities in which the women were living in. The data were analyzed using a two-level mixed-effects logistic regression to determine fixed-effects of individual- and community-level factors and random-intercept of between-cluster characteristics.In the current study, 6980 out of 7908 deliveries (88.3% took place at home. Lower educational levels (OR=2.74, 95%CI:1.84,4.70; p<0.0001, making no or only a limited number of ANC visits (OR=3.72,95%CI:2.85, 4.83; p<0.0001, non-exposure to media (OR=1.51, 95%CI 1.13, 2.01; p=0.004, higher parity (OR=2.68, 95%CI:1.96,3.68; p<0.0001, and perceived distance problem to reach health facilities (OR=1.29, 95%CI:1.03,1.62; p=0.022 were positively associated with home delivery. About 75% of the total variance in the odds of giving birth at home was accounted for the between-community differences of characteristics (ICC=0.75, p<0.0001. With regard to community-level characteristics, rural communities (OR=4.67, 95%CI:3.06,7.11; p<0.0001, pastoralist communities (OR=4.53, 95%CI:2.81,7.28; p<0.0001, communities with higher poverty levels (OR=1.49 95%CI:1.08,2.22; p=0.048, with lower levels of ANC utilization (OR=2.01, 95%CI:1.42,2.85; p<0.0001 and problem of distance to a health facility (OR=1.29, 95%CI:1.03,1.62; p=0.004 had a

  8. Assessing the importance of demographic parameters for population dynamics using Bayesian integrated population modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eacker, Daniel R; Lukacs, Paul M; Proffitt, Kelly M; Hebblewhite, Mark

    2017-06-01

    To successfully respond to changing habitat, climate or harvest, managers need to identify the most effective strategies to reverse population trends of declining species and/or manage harvest of game species. A classic approach in conservation biology for the last two decades has been the use of matrix population models to determine the most important vital rates affecting population growth rate (λ), that is, sensitivity. Ecologists quickly realized the critical role of environmental variability in vital rates affecting λ by developing approaches such as life-stage simulation analysis (LSA) that account for both sensitivity and variability of a vital rate. These LSA methods used matrix-population modeling and Monte Carlo simulation methods, but faced challenges in integrating data from different sources, disentangling process and sampling variation, and in their flexibility. Here, we developed a Bayesian integrated population model (IPM) for two populations of a large herbivore, elk (Cervus canadensis) in Montana, USA. We then extended the IPM to evaluate sensitivity in a Bayesian framework. We integrated known-fate survival data from radio-marked adults and juveniles, fecundity data, and population counts in a hierarchical population model that explicitly accounted for process and sampling variance. Next, we tested the prevailing paradigm in large herbivore population ecology that juvenile survival of neonates modeling in a Bayesian framework can provide multiple advantages. Our Bayesian LSA framework will provide a useful approach to addressing conservation challenges across a variety of species and data types. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

  9. Demographic noise and resilience in a semi-arid ecosystem model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Realpe-Gomez, J.; Baudena, M.; Galla, T.; McKane, A.J.; Rietkerk, M.

    2013-01-01

    The scarcity of water characterising drylands forces vegetation to adopt appropriate survival strategies. Some of these generate water–vegetation feedback mechanisms that can lead to spatial self-organisation of vegetation, as it has been shown with models representing plants by a density of

  10. Assessment of Prevalence of Persons with Down Syndrome: A Theory-Based Demographic Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Graaf, Gert; Vis, Jeroen C.; Haveman, Meindert; van Hove, Geert; de Graaf, Erik A. B.; Tijssen, Jan G. P.; Mulder, Barbara J. M.

    2011-01-01

    Background: The Netherlands are lacking reliable empirical data in relation to the development of birth and population prevalence of Down syndrome. For the UK and Ireland there are more historical empirical data available. A theory-based model is developed for predicting Down syndrome prevalence in the Netherlands from the 1950s onwards. It is…

  11. Combining dendrochronology and matrix modelling in demographic studies: An evaluation for Juniperus procera in Ethiopia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Couralet, C.; Sass, U.G.W.; Sterck, F.J.; Zuidema, P.A.

    2005-01-01

    Tree demography was analysed by applying dendrochronological techniques and matrix modelling on a static data set of Juniperus procera populations of Ethiopian dry highland forests. Six permanent sample plots were established for an inventory of diameters and 11 stem discs were collected for

  12. The use of a lacertid lizard as a model for reptile ecotoxicology studies--part 1 field demographics and morphology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amaral, Maria José; Carretero, Miguel A; Bicho, Rita C; Soares, Amadeu M V M; Mann, Reinier M

    2012-05-01

    At the European level, lacertid lizards have been proposed as potential model species for reptile ecotoxicology. We studied demographic and morphological aspects of natural field subpopulations of Podarcis bocagei inhabiting similar agricultural habitats which were either regularly exposed to pesticides, or not. Parameters examined in this study included population size and density, sex ratio, adult body size, fluctuating asymmetry in femoral pores and parasite prevalence. In general, we detected few statistically significant differences between the exposed and reference subpopulations. Although field situations are ecologically complex and factors other than pesticides may be acting, the absence of observable effects on field subpopulations is probably indicative that lizards are coping or compensating for this level of exposure.

  13. A comparison of linear demographic models and fraction of lifetime egg production for assessing sustainability in sharks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chapple, Taylor K; Botsford, Louis W

    2013-06-01

    Conventional methods for management of data-rich fisheries maintain sustainable populations by assuring that lifetime reproduction is adequate for individuals to replace themselves and accounting for density-dependent recruitment. Fishing is not allowed to reduce relative lifetime reproduction, the fraction of current egg production relative to unfished egg production (FLEP), below a sustainable level. Because most shark fisheries are data poor, other representations of persistence status have been used, including linear demographic models, which incorporate life-history characteristics in age-structured models with no density dependence. We tested how well measures of sustainability from 3 linear demographic methods (rebound potential, stochastic growth rate, and potential population increase) reflect actual population persistence by comparing values of these measures with FLEP for 26 shark species. We also calculated the value of fishing mortality (F) that would allow all 26 species to maintain an accepted precautionary threshold for sharks of FLEP = 60%, expressing F as a fraction of natural mortality (M). Values of stochastic growth rate and potential population growth did not covary in rank order with FLEP (p = 0.057 and p = 0.077, respectively) and neither was significantly correlated with FLEP. Ordinal ranking of rebound potential positively covaried with FLEP (p = 0.00013), but the relative rankings of some species were substantially out of order. Adopting a sustainable limit of F = 0.16M would maintain all 26 species above the precautionary minimum value of FLEP (60%). We concluded that shark-fishery and conservation policies should rely on calculation of replacement (i.e., FLEP), and that sharks should be fished at a precautionary level that would protect all stocks (i.e., F< 0.16M).

  14. [Mobbing: a meta-analysis and integrative model of its antecedents and consequences].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Topa Cantisano, Gabriela; Depolo, Marco; Morales Domínguez, J Francisco

    2007-02-01

    Although mobbing has been extensively studied, empirical research has not led to firm conclusions regarding its antecedents and consequences, both at personal and organizational levels. An extensive literature search yielded 86 empirical studies with 93 samples. The matrix correlation obtained through meta-analytic techniques was used to test a structural equation model. Results supported hypotheses regarding organizational environmental factors as main predictors of mobbing.

  15. Modeling geographic and demographic variability in residential concentrations of environmental tobacco smoke using national data sets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chahine, Teresa; Schultz, Bradley; Zartarian, Valerie; Subramanian, S V; Spengler, John; Hammitt, James; Levy, Jonathan I

    2011-01-01

    Despite substantial attention toward environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) exposure, previous studies have not provided adequate information to apply broadly within community-scale risk assessments. We aim to estimate residential concentrations of particulate matter (PM) from ETS in sociodemographic and geographic subpopulations in the United States for the purpose of screening-level risk assessment. We developed regression models to characterize smoking using the 2006-7 Current Population Survey--Tobacco Use Supplement, and linked these with air exchange models using the 2007 American Housing Survey. Using repeated logistic and log-linear models (n = 1000), we investigated whether household variables from the 2000 United States census can predict exposure likelihood and ETS-PM concentration in exposed households. We estimated a mean ETS-PM concentration of 16 μg/m(3) among the 17% of homes with non-zero exposure (3 μg/m(3) overall), with substantial variability among homes. The highest exposure likelihood was in the South and Midwest regions, rural populations, and low-income households. Concentrations in exposed households were highest in the South and demonstrated a non-monotonic association with income, related to air exchange rate patterns. We provide estimates of ETS-PM concentration distributions for different subpopulations in the United States, providing a starting point for communities interested in characterizing aggregate and cumulative risks from indoor pollutants.

  16. Health effects models for off-site radiological consequence analysis on nuclear reactor accidents (II)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Homma, Toshimitsu [Japan Atomic Energy Research Inst., Tokai, Ibaraki (Japan). Tokai Research Establishment; Takahashi, Tomoyuki [Kyoto Univ., Kumatori, Osaka (Japan). Research Reactor Inst; Yonehara, Hidenori [National Inst. of Radiological Sciences, Chiba (Japan)] [eds.

    2000-12-01

    This report is a revision of JAERI-M 91-005, 'Health Effects Models for Off-Site Radiological Consequence Analysis of Nuclear Reactor Accidents'. This revision provides a review of two revisions of NUREG/CR-4214 reports by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission which is the basis of the JAERI health effects models and other several recent reports that may impact the health effects models by international organizations. The major changes to the first version of the JAERI health effects models and the recommended parameters in this report are for late somatic effects. These changes reflect recent changes in cancer risk factors that have come from longer followup and revised dosimetry in major studies on the Japanese A-bomb survivors. This report also provides suggestions about future revisions of computational aspects on health effects models. (author)

  17. Measurement and Exploration of Individual Beliefs About the Consequences of Building Information Modelling Use

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Davies, Richard; Harty, Chris

    2013-01-01

    expectancy, effort expectancy, social influence, facilitating conditions, compatibility, and attitude toward using technology were adapted from existing measures. In an analysis of responses from 762 construction employees the scales showed acceptable measurement properties. Expectations about......Information and communication technology (ICT) is becoming increasingly important in construction although the rate of adoption is considered slow and the industry faces specific implementation challenges. Mainstream information systems research has shown that individuals’ beliefs and expectations...... of the consequences of ICT use predict subsequent usage. We describe the development of scales to measure beliefs about the consequences of building information modelling (BIM) and their use in a survey of employees of a large construction contracting organization in the United Kingdom. Scales for performance...

  18. Knowledge, transparency, refutability, and consequences: Using models to evaluate geologic repositories

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, M. C.; Kavetski, D.; Clark, M. P.; Ye, M.; Tiedeman, C. R.; Arabi, M.; Lu, D.

    2012-04-01

    Current knowledge of a geologic repository includes knowledge about data and their errors; knowledge about possible physical, chemical, and biological processes, and their interactions; knowledge about possible hydrologic and geologic frameworks; knowledge about past and future changes in system dynamics and characteristics; and knowledge about potential future development and use of the repository. Model development and analysis methods ideally integrate all of this knowledge, produce the transparency and refutability acknowledged as necessary to useful models of any environmental system; and provide clear understanding of consequences for the geologic repository, including quantification of uncertainty. Yet many model development and analysis methods fail to achieve this goal. For example, many methods fail to properly account for data error and spend many model runs exploring unrealistic error assumptions that are rarely clearly presented to modelers and model users. Many methods expend huge computer resources to address nearly pathologic model nonlinearities which are often programming and numerical artifacts that fail to represent the intended system behavior. Finally, many methods are unfamiliar to people using model results so that transparency and refutability is not achieved by those most in need of understanding likely consequences. This work suggests that ideas for including data error (including epistemic error) in model development and analysis, referred to as error-based weighting, and ideas about addressing nonlinearity, referred to as robust models, can be used to greatly improve model transparency and refutability, and achieve greater and more defensible long-term understanding of system dynamics and consequences for geologic repositories. This talk will discuss error-based weighting and robust models, and outline a model development and analysis approach that uses 10s to 100s of model runs instead of the 1,000s to 100,000s of runs required by many

  19. MUSIDH, multiple use of simulated demographic histories, a novel method to reduce computation time in microsimulation models of infectious diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischer, E A J; De Vlas, S J; Richardus, J H; Habbema, J D F

    2008-09-01

    Microsimulation of infectious diseases requires simulation of many life histories of interacting individuals. In particular, relatively rare infections such as leprosy need to be studied in very large populations. Computation time increases disproportionally with the size of the simulated population. We present a novel method, MUSIDH, an acronym for multiple use of simulated demographic histories, to reduce computation time. Demographic history refers to the processes of birth, death and all other demographic events that should be unrelated to the natural course of an infection, thus non-fatal infections. MUSIDH attaches a fixed number of infection histories to each demographic history, and these infection histories interact as if being the infection history of separate individuals. With two examples, mumps and leprosy, we show that the method can give a factor 50 reduction in computation time at the cost of a small loss in precision. The largest reductions are obtained for rare infections with complex demographic histories.

  20. Examining Antecedents and Consequences of Tourist Satisfaction: A Structural Modeling Approach

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Xia; ZHANG Jie; GU Chaolin; ZHEN Feng

    2009-01-01

    While the importance of tourist satisfaction has been recognized by academic researchers for at least four decades, adequate tourist satisfaction models have not been developed or validated. This study presents a tourist satisfaction model for a destination and explores the antecedents (tourist expectations, destination image, perceived quality, and perceived value) and the consequences (tourist complaints and tourist loyalty) of tourist satisfaction using Guilin for the case study. Structural equation modeling results support the tourist satisfaction model of tourist expectations, destination image, perceived quality, and per-ceived value as four key antecedents of tourist satisfaction, with tourist satisfaction having a negative effect on tourist complaints and a positive effect on tourist loyalty. Managerial implications are drawn from the study findings and suggestions are given for future work.

  1. A Comparison of Grizzly Bear Demographic Parameters Estimated from Non-Spatial and Spatial Open Population Capture-Recapture Models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jesse Whittington

    Full Text Available Capture-recapture studies are frequently used to monitor the status and trends of wildlife populations. Detection histories from individual animals are used to estimate probability of detection and abundance or density. The accuracy of abundance and density estimates depends on the ability to model factors affecting detection probability. Non-spatial capture-recapture models have recently evolved into spatial capture-recapture models that directly include the effect of distances between an animal's home range centre and trap locations on detection probability. Most studies comparing non-spatial and spatial capture-recapture biases focussed on single year models and no studies have compared the accuracy of demographic parameter estimates from open population models. We applied open population non-spatial and spatial capture-recapture models to three years of grizzly bear DNA-based data from Banff National Park and simulated data sets. The two models produced similar estimates of grizzly bear apparent survival, per capita recruitment, and population growth rates but the spatial capture-recapture models had better fit. Simulations showed that spatial capture-recapture models produced more accurate parameter estimates with better credible interval coverage than non-spatial capture-recapture models. Non-spatial capture-recapture models produced negatively biased estimates of apparent survival and positively biased estimates of per capita recruitment. The spatial capture-recapture grizzly bear population growth rates and 95% highest posterior density averaged across the three years were 0.925 (0.786-1.071 for females, 0.844 (0.703-0.975 for males, and 0.882 (0.779-0.981 for females and males combined. The non-spatial capture-recapture population growth rates were 0.894 (0.758-1.024 for females, 0.825 (0.700-0.948 for males, and 0.863 (0.771-0.957 for both sexes. The combination of low densities, low reproductive rates, and predominantly negative

  2. A Comparison of Grizzly Bear Demographic Parameters Estimated from Non-Spatial and Spatial Open Population Capture-Recapture Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whittington, Jesse; Sawaya, Michael A

    2015-01-01

    Capture-recapture studies are frequently used to monitor the status and trends of wildlife populations. Detection histories from individual animals are used to estimate probability of detection and abundance or density. The accuracy of abundance and density estimates depends on the ability to model factors affecting detection probability. Non-spatial capture-recapture models have recently evolved into spatial capture-recapture models that directly include the effect of distances between an animal's home range centre and trap locations on detection probability. Most studies comparing non-spatial and spatial capture-recapture biases focussed on single year models and no studies have compared the accuracy of demographic parameter estimates from open population models. We applied open population non-spatial and spatial capture-recapture models to three years of grizzly bear DNA-based data from Banff National Park and simulated data sets. The two models produced similar estimates of grizzly bear apparent survival, per capita recruitment, and population growth rates but the spatial capture-recapture models had better fit. Simulations showed that spatial capture-recapture models produced more accurate parameter estimates with better credible interval coverage than non-spatial capture-recapture models. Non-spatial capture-recapture models produced negatively biased estimates of apparent survival and positively biased estimates of per capita recruitment. The spatial capture-recapture grizzly bear population growth rates and 95% highest posterior density averaged across the three years were 0.925 (0.786-1.071) for females, 0.844 (0.703-0.975) for males, and 0.882 (0.779-0.981) for females and males combined. The non-spatial capture-recapture population growth rates were 0.894 (0.758-1.024) for females, 0.825 (0.700-0.948) for males, and 0.863 (0.771-0.957) for both sexes. The combination of low densities, low reproductive rates, and predominantly negative population growth

  3. Environmental health and household demographics impacting biosand filter maintenance and diarrhea in Guatemala: an application of structural equation modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Divelbiss, Daniel William; Boccelli, Dominic Louis; Succop, Paul Allan; Oerther, Daniel Barton

    2013-02-05

    In rural health development practice, engineers and scientists must recognize the complex interactions that influence individuals' contact with disease-causing pathogens and understand how household habits may impact the adoption and long-term sustainability of new technology. The goal of this study was to measure the effect of various environmental health factors and household demographics on the operation and maintenance of the Biosand filter (Centre for Affordable Water and Sanitation Technology, Calgary, Alberta, Canada) and diarrhea health burden in the region. In July and August 2010, randomized household surveys (n = 286) were completed in rural Guatemala detailing water access, sanitation availability, hygiene practice, socio-economic status, education level, filter operation and maintenance, and diarrhea health burden of the home. A hypothesized structural equation model was developed based on a review of published research and tested using the surveyed data. Model-derived parameter estimates indicated that: (a) proper personal hygiene practices significantly promote proper filter operation and maintenance; and (b) higher household education level, proper filter operation and maintenance, and improved water supply significantly reduce diarrhea health burden. Additionally, a high level of unexplained variance in diarrhea indicated the filter, though protective of health, is not the only factor influencing diarrhea.

  4. Off-site toxic consequence assessment: a simplified modeling procedure and case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guarnaccia, Joe; Hoppe, Tom

    2008-11-15

    An assessment of off-site exposure from spills/releases of toxic chemicals can be conducted by compiling site-specific operational, geographic, demographic, and meteorological data and by using screening-level public-domain modeling tools (e.g., RMP Comp, ALOHA and DEGADIS). In general, the analysis is confined to the following: event-based simulations (allow for the use of known, constant, atmospheric conditions), known receptor distances (on the order of miles or less), short time scale for the distances considered (order of 10's of minutes or less), gently sloping rough terrain, dense and neutrally buoyant gas dispersion, known chemical inventory and infrastructure (used to define source-term), and known toxic endpoint (defines significance). While screening-level models are relatively simple to use, care must be taken to ensure that the results are meaningful. This approach allows one to assess risk from catastrophic release (e.g., via terrorism), or plausible release scenarios (related to standard operating procedures and industry standards). In addition, given receptor distance and toxic endpoint, the model can be used to predict the critical spill volume to realize significant off-site risk. This information can then be used to assess site storage and operation parameters and to determine the most economical and effective risk reduction measures to be applied.

  5. Testing the fitness consequences of the thermoregulatory and parental care models for the origin of endothermy.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sabrina Clavijo-Baque

    Full Text Available The origin of endothermy is a puzzling phenomenon in the evolution of vertebrates. To address this issue several explicative models have been proposed. The main models proposed for the origin of endothermy are the aerobic capacity, the thermoregulatory and the parental care models. Our main proposal is that to compare the alternative models, a critical aspect is to determine how strongly natural selection was influenced by body temperature, and basal and maximum metabolic rates during the evolution of endothermy. We evaluate these relationships in the context of three main hypotheses aimed at explaining the evolution of endothermy, namely the parental care hypothesis and two hypotheses related to the thermoregulatory model (thermogenic capacity and higher body temperature models. We used data on basal and maximum metabolic rates and body temperature from 17 rodent populations, and used intrinsic population growth rate (R(max as a global proxy of fitness. We found greater support for the thermogenic capacity model of the thermoregulatory model. In other words, greater thermogenic capacity is associated with increased fitness in rodent populations. To our knowledge, this is the first test of the fitness consequences of the thermoregulatory and parental care models for the origin of endothermy.

  6. Quantifying the predictive consequences of model error with linear subspace analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, Jeremy T.; Doherty, John E.; Hughes, Joseph D.

    2014-01-01

    All computer models are simplified and imperfect simulators of complex natural systems. The discrepancy arising from simplification induces bias in model predictions, which may be amplified by the process of model calibration. This paper presents a new method to identify and quantify the predictive consequences of calibrating a simplified computer model. The method is based on linear theory, and it scales efficiently to the large numbers of parameters and observations characteristic of groundwater and petroleum reservoir models. The method is applied to a range of predictions made with a synthetic integrated surface-water/groundwater model with thousands of parameters. Several different observation processing strategies and parameterization/regularization approaches are examined in detail, including use of the Karhunen-Loève parameter transformation. Predictive bias arising from model error is shown to be prediction specific and often invisible to the modeler. The amount of calibration-induced bias is influenced by several factors, including how expert knowledge is applied in the design of parameterization schemes, the number of parameters adjusted during calibration, how observations and model-generated counterparts are processed, and the level of fit with observations achieved through calibration. Failure to properly implement any of these factors in a prediction-specific manner may increase the potential for predictive bias in ways that are not visible to the calibration and uncertainty analysis process.

  7. Escalation scenarios initiated by gas explosions on offshore installations. Probabilistic cause and consequence modelling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eknes, Monika Loeland

    1996-12-31

    This Dr. ing. thesis deals with escalation scenarios initiated by gas explosions on offshore installations. Gas explosions is one of the major hazards to such installations. The objectives were to estimate the probability of ignition and frequency of gas explosions for gas leaks on top sides of offshore installations, and to estimate the response and resistance of components that could result in escalation if they failed. Main fields considered cover risk analysis methodology, gas explosions, simplified escalation models, evaluation of structural consequences, case studies, and guidelines. 107 refs., 33 figs., 33 tabs.

  8. Consequence modeling for nuclear weapons probabilistic cost/benefit analyses of safety retrofits

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Harvey, T.F.; Peters, L.; Serduke, F.J.D.; Hall, C.; Stephens, D.R.

    1998-01-01

    The consequence models used in former studies of costs and benefits of enhanced safety retrofits are considered for (1) fuel fires; (2) non-nuclear detonations; and, (3) unintended nuclear detonations. Estimates of consequences were made using a representative accident location, i.e., an assumed mixed suburban-rural site. We have explicitly quantified land- use impacts and human-health effects (e.g. , prompt fatalities, prompt injuries, latent cancer fatalities, low- levels of radiation exposure, and clean-up areas). Uncertainty in the wind direction is quantified and used in a Monte Carlo calculation to estimate a range of results for a fuel fire with uncertain respirable amounts of released Pu. We define a nuclear source term and discuss damage levels of concern. Ranges of damages are estimated by quantifying health impacts and property damages. We discuss our dispersal and prompt effects models in some detail. The models used to loft the Pu and fission products and their particle sizes are emphasized.

  9. LADTAP-PROB: A PROBABILISTIC MODEL TO ASSESS RADIOLOGICAL CONSEQUENCES FROM LIQUID RADIOACTIVE RELEASES

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Farfan, E; Trevor Foley, T; Tim Jannik, T

    2009-01-26

    The potential radiological consequences to humans resulting from aqueous releases at the Savannah River Site (SRS) have usually been assessed using the computer code LADTAP or deterministic variations of this code. The advancement of LADTAP over the years included LADTAP II (a computer program that still resides on the mainframe at SRS) [1], LADTAP XL{copyright} (Microsoft Excel{reg_sign} Spreadsheet) [2], and other versions specific to SRS areas such as [3]. The spreadsheet variations of LADTAP contain two worksheets: LADTAP and IRRIDOSE. The LADTAP worksheet estimates dose for environmental pathways including ingestion of water and fish and external exposure resulting from recreational activities. IRRIDOSE estimates potential dose to individuals from irrigation of food crops with contaminated water. A new version of this deterministic methodology, LADTAP-PROB, was developed at Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) to (1) consider the complete range of the model parameter values (not just maximum or mean values), (2) determine the influences of parameter uncertainties within the LADTAP methodology, to perform a sensitivity analysis of all model parameters (to identify the input parameters to which model results are most sensitive), and (3) probabilistically assess radiological consequences from contaminated water. This study presents the methodology applied in LADTAP-PROB.

  10. Modeling a Civil Event Case Study for Consequence Management Using the IMPRINT Forces Module

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gacy, Marc; Gosakan, Mala; Eckdahl, Angela; Miller, Jeffrey R.

    2012-01-01

    A critical challenge in the Consequence Management (CM) domain is the appropriate allocation of necessary and skilled military and civilian personnel and materiel resources in unexpected emergencies. To aid this process we used the Forces module in the Improved Performance Research Integration Tool (IMPRINT). This module enables analysts to enter personnel and equipment capabilities, prioritized schedules and numbers available, along with unexpected emergency requirements in order to assess force response requirements. Using a suspected terrorist threat on a college campus, we developed a test case model which exercised the capabilities of the module, including the scope and scale of operations. The model incorporates data from multiple sources, including daily schedules and frequency of events such as fire calls. Our preliminary results indicate that the model can predict potential decreases in civilian emergency response coverage due to an involved unplanned incident requiring significant portions of police, fire and civil responses teams.

  11. Statistical Surrogate Models for Estimating Probability of High-Consequence Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Field, R.; Constantine, P.; Boslough, M.

    2011-12-01

    We have posed the climate change problem in a framework similar to that used in safety engineering, by acknowledging that probabilistic risk assessments focused on low-probability, high-consequence climate events are perhaps more appropriate than studies focused simply on best estimates. To properly explore the tails of the distribution requires extensive sampling, which is not possible with existing coupled atmospheric models due to the high computational cost of each simulation. We have developed specialized statistical surrogate models (SSMs) that can be used to make predictions about the tails of the associated probability distributions. A SSM is different than a deterministic surrogate model in that it represents each climate variable of interest as a space/time random field, that is, a random variable for every fixed location in the atmosphere at all times. The SSM can be calibrated to available spatial and temporal data from existing climate databases, or to a collection of outputs from general circulation models. Because of its reduced size and complexity, the realization of a large number of independent model outputs from a SSM becomes computationally straightforward, so that quantifying the risk associated with low-probability, high-consequence climate events becomes feasible. A Bayesian framework was also developed to provide quantitative measures of confidence, via Bayesian credible intervals, to assess these risks. To illustrate the use of the SSM, we considered two collections of NCAR CCSM 3.0 output data. The first collection corresponds to average December surface temperature for years 1990-1999 based on a collection of 8 different model runs obtained from the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI). We calibrated the surrogate model to the available model data and make various point predictions. We also analyzed average precipitation rate in June, July, and August over a 54-year period assuming a cyclic Y2K ocean model. We

  12. An improved version of the consequence analysis model for chemical emergencies, ESCAPE

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kukkonen, J.; Nikmo, J.; Riikonen, K.

    2017-02-01

    We present a refined version of a mathematical model called ESCAPE, "Expert System for Consequence Analysis and Preparing for Emergencies". The model has been designed for evaluating the releases of toxic and flammable gases into the atmosphere, their atmospheric dispersion and the effects on humans and the environment. We describe (i) the mathematical treatments of this model, (ii) a verification and evaluation of the model against selected experimental field data, and (iii) a new operational implementation of the model. The new mathematical treatments include state-of-the-art atmospheric vertical profiles and new submodels for dense gas and passive atmospheric dispersion. The model performance was first successfully verified using the data of the Thorney Island campaign, and then evaluated against the Desert Tortoise campaign. For the latter campaign, the geometric mean bias was 1.72 (this corresponds to an underprediction of approximately 70%) and 0.71 (overprediction of approximately 30%) for the concentration and the plume half-width, respectively. The geometric variance was computers, tablets and mobile phones. The predicted results can be post-processed using geographic information systems. The model has already proved to be a useful tool of assessment for the needs of emergency response authorities in contingency planning.

  13. Modeling vulnerability to thermokarst disturbance and its consequences on regional land cover dynamic in boreal Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Genet, H.; Lara, M. J.; Bolton, W. R.; McGuire, A. D.

    2016-12-01

    Estimation of the magnitude and consequences of permafrost degradation in high latitude is one of the most urgent research challenges related to contemporary and future climate change. In addition to widespread vertical degradation, ice-rich permafrost can thaw laterally, often triggering abrupt subsidence of the ground surface called thermokart. In this depression, permafrost plateau vegetation will transition to wetlands or lakes, while surface water of the surrounding landscape may drain towards it. These abrupt changes in land cover and hydrology can have dramatic consequences from wildlife habitat and biogeochemical cycles. Although recent studies have documented an acceleration of the rates of thermokarst formation in boreal and arctic peatlands, the importance of thermokarst at the regional level is still poorly understood. To better understand the vulnerability of the landscape to thermokarst disturbance in Alaska, we developed the Alaska Thermokarst Model (ATM), a state-and-transition model designed to simulate land cover change associated with thermokarst disturbance. In boreal regions, the model simulates transitions from permafrost plateau forest to thermokarst lake, bog or fen, as a function of climate and fire dynamics, permafrost characteristics and physiographic information. This model is designed and parameterized based on existing literature and a new repeated imagery analysis we conducted in a major wetland complex in boreal Alaska. We will present simulation and validation of thermokarst dynamic and associated land cover change in two wetland complexes in boreal Alaska, from 2000 to 2100 for six climate scenarios associating three AR5 emission scenarios and two global circulation model simulations. By 2100, ATM is predicting decrease between 3.5 and 9.1 % in the extent of permafrost plateau forest, mostly to the benefit of thermokarst fen, and lake. This analysis allowed us to assess the importance of thermokarst dynamics and landscape evolution

  14. Technology, Demographic Characteristics and E-Learning Acceptance: A Conceptual Model Based on Extended Technology Acceptance Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tarhini, Ali; Elyas, Tariq; Akour, Mohammad Ali; Al-Salti, Zahran

    2016-01-01

    The main aim of this paper is to develop an amalgamated conceptual model of technology acceptance that explains how individual, social, cultural and organizational factors affect the students' acceptance and usage behaviour of the Web-based learning systems. More specifically, the proposed model extends the Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) to…

  15. [Antecedents and consequences of workplace bullying: a longitudinal analysis with a structural equation model].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carretero Domínguez, Noelia; Gil-Monte, Pedro Rafael; Luciano Devis, Juan Vicente

    2011-11-01

    Most studies focusing on the antecedents and consequences of workplace bullying have used a cross-sectional design, which impedes determining the causality of the relationships. In the present work, we analyzed, by means of structural equation models, the relationship between workplace bullying and some variables that are considered antecedents (interpersonal conflicts, role ambiguity, role conflict, and workplace social support) or consequences (health complaints and inclination to absenteeism from work) of this phenomenon. Multicenter study with two phases. The sample consisted of 696 employees from 66 centers. Workplace bullying was assessed by means of the "Mobbing-UNIPSICO" questionnaire, and the other variables with frequency scales. The cross-sectional models indicated a significant association between role conflict, workplace social support, and workplace bullying in both study periods. Concerning the longitudinal relationships, only workplace social support was a significant predictor of workplace bullying, which, in turn, was a cross-sectional and longitudinal predictor of workers' health complaints. Our results show the mediating effect of workplace bullying between certain work conditions and health complaints, and it is recommendable to replicate these findings in a multi-occupational sample.

  16. Blume-Emery-Griffiths model on three-dimensional lattices: Consequences for the antiferromagnetic Potts model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lapinskas, Saulius; Rosengren, Anders

    1994-06-01

    Using the cluster-variation method we study the phase diagram of the Blume-Emergy-Griffiths (BEG) model on simple cubic and face-centered cubic lattices. For the simple cubic lattice the main attention is paid to reentrant phenomena and ferrimagnetic phases occurring in a certain range of coupling constants. The results are in close agreement with Monte-Carlo data, available for parts of the phase diagram. Several ferrimagnetic phases are obtained in the vicinity of the line in parameter space, at which the model reduces to the antiferromagnetic three-state Potts model. Our results imply the existence of three phase transitions in the antiferromagnetic Potts model on the simple-cubic lattice. The phase diagrams for the BEG model on the face-centered cubic lattice are obtained in the region of antiquadrupolar ordering. Also the several ordered phases of the antiferromagnetic Potts model on this lattice are discussed.

  17. Modeling the Geographic Consequence and Pattern of Dengue Fever Transmission in Thailand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bekoe, Collins; Pansombut, Tatdow; Riyapan, Pakwan; Kakchapati, Sampurna; Phon-On, Aniruth

    2017-05-04

    Dengue fever is one of the infectious diseases that is still a public health problem in Thailand. This study considers in detail, the geographic consequence, seasonal and pattern of dengue fever transmission among the 76 provinces of Thailand from 2003 to 2015. A cross-sectional study. The data for the study was from the Department of Disease Control under the Bureau of Epidemiology, Thailand. The quarterly effects and location on the transmission of dengue was modeled using an alternative additive log-linear model. The model fitted well as illustrated by the residual plots and the  Again, the model showed that dengue fever is high in the second quarter of every year from May to August. There was an evidence of an increase in the trend of dengue annually from 2003 to 2015. There was a difference in the distribution of dengue fever within and between provinces. The areas of high risks were the central and southern regions of Thailand. The log-linear model provided a simple medium of modeling dengue fever transmission. The results are very important in the geographic distribution of dengue fever patterns.

  18. Limitations of empirical sediment transport formulas for shallow water and their consequences for swash zone modelling

    CERN Document Server

    Li, Wei; Pähtz, Thomas; He, Zhiguo; Cao, Zhixian

    2016-01-01

    Volumetric sediment concentrations computed by phase-resolving swash morphodynamic models are shown to exceed unity minus porosity (i.e. the maximal physically possible concentration value) by up to factor of $10^5$ when using standard expressions to compute the sediment transport rate. An ad hoc limit of sediment concentration is introduced as a means to evaluate consequences of exceeding physically realistic concentration by standard expressions. We find that implementation of this ad hoc limit strongly changes the quantitative and qualitative predictions of phase-resolving swash morphodynamic models, suggesting that existing swash predictions are unreliable. This is because standard expressions inappropriately consider or ignore the fact that the shallow swash water depth limits the storage capacity of transported sediment.

  19. Childhood body mass index trajectories: modeling, characterizing, pairwise correlations and socio-demographic predictors of trajectory characteristics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wen Xiaozhong

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Modeling childhood body mass index (BMI trajectories, versus estimating change in BMI between specific ages, may improve prediction of later body-size-related outcomes. Prior studies of BMI trajectories are limited by restricted age periods and insufficient use of trajectory information. Methods Among 3,289 children seen at 81,550 pediatric well-child visits from infancy to 18 years between 1980 and 2008, we fit individual BMI trajectories using mixed effect models with fractional polynomial functions. From each child's fitted trajectory, we estimated age and BMI at infancy peak and adiposity rebound, and velocity and area under curve between 1 week, infancy peak, adiposity rebound, and 18 years. Results Among boys, mean (SD ages at infancy BMI peak and adiposity rebound were 7.2 (0.9 and 49.2 (11.9 months, respectively. Among girls, mean (SD ages at infancy BMI peak and adiposity rebound were 7.4 (1.1 and 46.8 (11.0 months, respectively. Ages at infancy peak and adiposity rebound were weakly inversely correlated (r = -0.09. BMI at infancy peak and adiposity rebound were positively correlated (r = 0.76. Blacks had earlier adiposity rebound and greater velocity from adiposity rebound to 18 years of age than whites. Higher birth weight z-score predicted earlier adiposity rebound and higher BMI at infancy peak and adiposity rebound. BMI trajectories did not differ by birth year or type of health insurance, after adjusting for other socio-demographics and birth weight z-score. Conclusions Childhood BMI trajectory characteristics are informative in describing childhood body mass changes and can be estimated conveniently. Future research should evaluate associations of these novel BMI trajectory characteristics with adult outcomes.

  20. Weather modeling for hazard and consequence assessment operations during the 2006 Winter Olympic Games

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hayes, P.; Trigg, J. L.; Stauffer, D.; Hunter, G.; McQueen, J.

    2006-05-01

    Consequence assessment (CA) operations are those processes that attempt to mitigate negative impacts of incidents involving hazardous materials such as chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear, and high explosive (CBRNE) agents, facilities, weapons, or transportation. Incident types range from accidental spillage of chemicals at/en route to/from a manufacturing plant, to the deliberate use of radiological or chemical material as a weapon in a crowded city. The impacts of these incidents are highly variable, from little or no impact to catastrophic loss of life and property. Local and regional scale atmospheric conditions strongly influence atmospheric transport and dispersion processes in the boundary layer, and the extent and scope of the spread of dangerous materials in the lower levels of the atmosphere. Therefore, CA personnel charged with managing the consequences of CBRNE incidents must have detailed knowledge of current and future weather conditions to accurately model potential effects. A meteorology team was established at the U.S. Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) to provide weather support to CA personnel operating DTRA's CA tools, such as the Hazard Prediction and Assessment Capability (HPAC) tool. The meteorology team performs three main functions: 1) regular provision of meteorological data for use by personnel using HPAC, 2) determination of the best performing medium-range model forecast for the 12 - 48 hour timeframe and 3) provision of real-time help-desk support to users regarding acquisition and use of weather in HPAC CA applications. The normal meteorology team operations were expanded during a recent modeling project which took place during the 2006 Winter Olympic Games. The meteorology team took advantage of special weather observation datasets available in the domain of the Winter Olympic venues and undertook a project to improve weather modeling at high resolution. The varied and complex terrain provided a special challenge to the

  1. Simple physics-based models of compensatory plant water uptake: concepts and eco-hydrological consequences

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. J. Jarvis

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available Many land surface schemes and simulation models of plant growth designed for practical use employ simple empirical sub-models of root water uptake that cannot adequately reflect the critical role water uptake from sparsely rooted deep subsoil plays in meeting atmospheric transpiration demand in water-limited environments, especially in the presence of shallow groundwater. A failure to account for this so-called "compensatory" water uptake may have serious consequences for both local and global modeling of water and energy fluxes, carbon balances and climate. Some purely empirical compensatory root water uptake models have been proposed, but they are of limited use in global modeling exercises since their parameters cannot be related to measurable soil and vegetation properties. A parsimonious physics-based model of uptake compensation has been developed that requires no more parameters than empirical approaches. This model is described and some aspects of its behavior are illustrated with the help of example simulations. These analyses demonstrate that hydraulic lift can be considered as an extreme form of compensation and that the degree of compensation is principally a function of soil capillarity and the ratio of total effective root length to potential transpiration. Thus, uptake compensation increases as root to leaf area ratios increase, since potential transpiration depends on leaf area. Results of "scenario" simulations for two case studies, one at the local scale (riparian vegetation growing above shallow water tables in seasonally dry or arid climates and one at a global scale (water balances across an aridity gradient in the continental USA, are presented to illustrate biases in model predictions that arise when water uptake compensation is neglected. In the first case, it is shown that only a compensated model can match the strong relationships between water table depth and leaf area and transpiration observed in riparian forest

  2. Simple physics-based models of compensatory plant water uptake: concepts and eco-hydrological consequences

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. J. Jarvis

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Many land surface schemes and simulation models of plant growth designed for practical use employ simple empirical sub-models of root water uptake that cannot adequately reflect the critical role water uptake from sparsely rooted deep subsoil plays in meeting atmospheric transpiration demand in water-limited environments, especially in the presence of shallow groundwater. A failure to account for this so-called "compensatory" water uptake may have serious consequences for both local and global modeling of water and energy fluxes, carbon balances and climate. Some purely empirical compensatory root water uptake models have been proposed, but they are of limited use in global modeling exercises since their parameters cannot be related to measurable soil and vegetation properties. Parsimonious physics-based models of uptake compensation have been developed that require no more parameters than empirical approaches. These models are described and compared from a conceptual point of view and some aspects of their behavior, including the phenomenon of hydraulic lift, are illustrated with the help of example simulations. These analyses demonstrate that the degree of compensation is a function of soil capillarity and the ratio of total effective root length to potential transpiration. Thus, uptake compensation increases as root to leaf area ratios increase, since potential transpiration depends on leaf area. Results of "scenario" simulations for two case studies, one at the local scale (riparian vegetation growing above shallow water tables in seasonally dry or arid climates and one at a global scale (water balances across an aridity gradient in the continental USA, are presented to illustrate biases in model predictions that arise when water uptake compensation is neglected. In the first case, it is shown that only a compensated model can match the strong relationships between water table depth and leaf area and transpiration observed in riparian forest

  3. Stressors, stress and stress consequences during long-duration manned space missions: a descriptive model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geuna, Stefano; Brunelli, Francesco; Perino, Maria A.

    Keeping crew members in good health is a major factor in the success or failure of long-duration manned space missions. Among the many possible agents that can affect the crew's general well-being, stress is certainly one of the most critical because of its implications on human health and performance, both physical and mental. Nevertheless, very few studies have been performed on this fundamental issue and none of them has addressed it in its entirity, considering its diverse physical and psychological aspects. In this work, a descriptive model is proposed to expound the mechanism and sequence of events which mediate stress. A critical analysis of the information provided by past manned spaceflights and by dedicated research performed in analogous environments is presented, and an extrapolation of the available data on human stress in such extreme conditions is proposed. Both internal and external stressors have been identified, at physical and psychosocial levels, thus providing the basis for their early detection and preventive reduction. The possible negative consequences of stress that may lead to disease in crewmembers are described. Finally, the most effective instruments which may be of help in reducing space-related human stress and treating its negative consequences are suggested.

  4. Modelling the economic consequences of Marine Protected Areas using the BEMCOM model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hoff, A.; Andersen, J.L.; Christensen, Asbjørn;

    2013-01-01

    Sea. It has several times been suggested to close parts of the sandeel fishery in the North Sea out of concern for other species feeding on sandeel and/or spawning in the sandeel habitats. The economic effects of such closures have been assessed using BEMCOM. The results indicate that the model yields...... the question ‘what’s best?’, i.e. finds the overall optimal effort allocation, from an economic point of view, between multiple harvesting fleets fishing under a subset of restrictions on catches and effort levels. The BEMCOM model is described and applied to the case of the Danish sandeel fishery in the North...

  5. Using an ethical decision-making model to determine consequences for student plagiarism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiehl, Ermalynn M

    2006-06-01

    The incidence of plagiarism, intentional or unintentional, in the professional nursing arena has increased in recent years, as has the occurrence of plagiarism among nursing students. Strategies for cheating have become very sophisticated with the use of aids such as personal digital assistants, camera phones, and instant messaging. Cheating on written papers has also increased. The Internet provides students with ready-made research and academic papers, and access to Web sites on a plethora of topics. In this article, I describe my experience with plagiarism of ethics papers during students' final semester before graduation. How I discovered the plagiarized work and used the A-B-C-D-E ethical decision-making model in determining the student consequences for the event are presented.

  6. Physical consequences of non-Abelian duality in the standard model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hong-Mo, Chan; Tsun, Tsou Sheung

    1998-02-01

    Possible physical consequences of a recently discovered non-Abelian dual symmetry are explored in the standard model. It is found that both Higgs fields and fermion generations can be assigned a natural place in the dual framework, with Higgs fields appearing as frames (or ``N-beins'') in internal symmetry space, and generations appearing as spontaneously broken dual color. Fermions then occur in exactly three generations and have a factorizable mass matrix which gives automatically one generation much heavier than the other two. The CKM matrix is the identity at zeroth order, but acquires mixing through higher loop corrections. Preliminary considerations are given to calculating the CKM matrix and lower generation masses. New vector and Higgs bosons are predicted.

  7. Some Demographic Changes in the Population of Montenegro with the Projection of Future Demographic Development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Goran Rajović

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Dramatic demographic changes through which in recent decade’s passes Montenegrin society, the consequences arising from the new realities require a serious socio-political engagement. Process of population aging, that began the seventies of the 20th century, represents a significant problem. The process of demographic change was accompanied by an internal migration to major urban centers, primarily Podgorica and Montenegrin coast, leading to emptying the interior of Montenegro. Unfortunately, this development of the population structure of Montenegro opens a series of questions and challenges that would the creators of the future you should put high on the scale of its priorities. In this text we will point out on change of total number of citizens of Montenegro according to the base and chain indexes of 1921-2011 and population in Montenegro 2016–2091 (cohort model projections.

  8. Extreme physical phenomena associated with close-in solid exoplanets: Models and consequences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saxena, Prabal

    Solid exoplanets orbiting at very close distances away from their host star are astrophysical laboratories for unique and exotic processes that define everything from their orbit and shape to their atmospheres and interiors. We create models to examine the unique physical environments that these planets inhabit and explore the effects on planetary shape and on atmosphere and resurfacing processes. In particular we examine three related topics. The first topic involves the creation of a model of the atmospheres of synchronously orbiting close in solid planets which examines the potential of mass advection by the atmosphere to deform the planets shape and produce observable surface signatures. This model reproduces and builds upon earlier low dimension atmospheric models produced for Io and Heated Super-Earths by incorporating stellar disk insolation and latent heat considerations and then examines bulk atmospheric mass transport processes on a variety of different close in solid exoplanets. Spatial deposition profiles are then compared to putative sub-stellar magma oceans in order to examine deformation to a planets' shape and potential production of observable surface features. The second is the potential for tidally and rotationally distorted planets in synchronous orbit to produce observational effects and transit signatures which can both confound system characterization and also act as a probe to constrain system and planet properties. In this model we examine a number of different planet-star systems and quantify their potential biases and asphericity signatures in hypothetical transit data. The results indicate that such signatures and biases exceed observational thresholds of a number of current and future surveys and instruments and consequently may be an invaluable probe for exoplanet characterization - in particular they may help to discriminate between rocky super-earths and mini neptunes - a fundamental unresolved question regarding exoplanets. Finally

  9. Investigating attribute non-attendance and its consequences in choice experiments with latent class models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lagarde, Mylene

    2013-05-01

    A growing literature, mainly from transport and environment economics, has started to explore whether respondents violate some of the axioms about individuals' preferences in Discrete Choice Experiments (DCEs) and use simple strategies to make their choices. One of these strategies, termed attribute non-attendance (ANA), consists in ignoring one or more attributes. Using data from a DCE administered to healthcare providers in Ghana to evaluate their potential resistance to changes in clinical guidelines, this study illustrates how latent class models can be used in a step-wise approach to account for all possible ANA strategies used by respondents and explore the consequences of such behaviours. Results show that less than 3% of respondents considered all attributes when choosing between the two hypothetical scenarios proposed, with a majority looking at only one or two attributes. Accounting for ANA strategies improved the goodness-of-fit of the model and affected the magnitude of some of the coefficient and willingness-to-pay estimates. However, there was no difference in the predicted probabilities of the model taking into account ANA and the standard approach. Although the latter result is reassuring about the ability of DCEs to produce unbiased policy guidance, it should be confirmed by other studies.

  10. Vertebrates population response to the climatic change - pertinence of the environmental indicators and influence of the demographic strategies and consequences for the biodiversity dynamic; Reponses demographiques des vertebres aux changements climatiques - pertinence d'indicateurs environnementaux et influence des strategies demographiques et consequences pour la dynamique de la biodiversite

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Weimerskirch, H

    2007-07-01

    There is a growing interest and major challenge to understand the way environmental variability and climatic change have affected and will affect ecosystems and populations. Long-term records of population parameters of vertebrates are rare, but invaluable to address this challenge. The network CLIMPOP brings together French researchers working with long term data collected on individually marked animals to study the effects of climate change on a range of vertebrate populations (reptiles, birds and mammals) and standardised methods to link climatic factors and demographic parameters. The funding from GICC-IFB has allowed the CLIMPOP group to hire a post doc bridging methodologists and ecologists, organize a workshop and support field studies. Several analyses on a series of vertebrates have been carried out on the link between large-scale and small-scale climatic factors and population dynamics. In addition the CLIMPOP group has carried out a major methodological paper reviewing statistical models and procedures to study the influence of climate on vital rates based on the analysis of individual monitoring data, to identify potential pitfalls in the utilization of these models and procedures, to review published papers in which the influence of climatic variation on survival probability in vertebrate populations has been addressed, to evaluate whether the results from these studies are relevant and to draw practical recommendations to efficiently address effects of climate effects on vital rates in natural vertebrate populations. This evaluation raised six potential methodological issues and indicates that so far most of the studies found in the ecological literature can be considered as being useful for the purpose of generating hypothesis rather than for that of obtaining solid evidence for the impact of climatic factors on vital rates. (author)

  11. Combining gene expression, demographic and clinical data in modeling disease: a case study of bipolar disorder and schizophrenia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dobrin Seth

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background This paper presents a retrospective statistical study on the newly-released data set by the Stanley Neuropathology Consortium on gene expression in bipolar disorder and schizophrenia. This data set contains gene expression data as well as limited demographic and clinical data for each subject. Previous studies using statistical classification or machine learning algorithms have focused on gene expression data only. The present paper investigates if such techniques can benefit from including demographic and clinical data. Results We compare six classification algorithms: support vector machines (SVMs, nearest shrunken centroids, decision trees, ensemble of voters, naïve Bayes, and nearest neighbor. SVMs outperform the other algorithms. Using expression data only, they yield an area under the ROC curve of 0.92 for bipolar disorder versus control, and 0.91 for schizophrenia versus control. By including demographic and clinical data, classification performance improves to 0.97 and 0.94 respectively. Conclusion This paper demonstrates that SVMs can distinguish bipolar disorder and schizophrenia from normal control at a very high rate. Moreover, it shows that classification performance improves by including demographic and clinical data. We also found that some variables in this data set, such as alcohol and drug use, are strongly associated to the diseases. These variables may affect gene expression and make it more difficult to identify genes that are directly associated to the diseases. Stratification can correct for such variables, but we show that this reduces the power of the statistical methods.

  12. DEMOGRAPHIC VULNERABILITIES IN TECUCI PLAIN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iulian Adrian ŞORCARU

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available The study focuses on analyzing and mapping 8 indicators considered to best reflect the demographic vulnerability in Tecuci Plain in the year 2010 and proposes a model of aggregation which finally allows us to distinguish three major types of demographic vulnerability (low, medium and high. Mapping the final values also shows significant disparities in the territorial administrative units that broadly overlap the plain, the most vulnerable being Tecuci city and the peripheral communes, towards Vrancea and Vaslui Counties.

  13. Mixed effects modeling of proliferation rates in cell-based models: consequence for pharmacogenomics and cancer.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hae Kyung Im

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available The International HapMap project has made publicly available extensive genotypic data on a number of lymphoblastoid cell lines (LCLs. Building on this resource, many research groups have generated a large amount of phenotypic data on these cell lines to facilitate genetic studies of disease risk or drug response. However, one problem that may reduce the usefulness of these resources is the biological noise inherent to cellular phenotypes. We developed a novel method, termed Mixed Effects Model Averaging (MEM, which pools data from multiple sources and generates an intrinsic cellular growth rate phenotype. This intrinsic growth rate was estimated for each of over 500 HapMap cell lines. We then examined the association of this intrinsic growth rate with gene expression levels and found that almost 30% (2,967 out of 10,748 of the genes tested were significant with FDR less than 10%. We probed further to demonstrate evidence of a genetic effect on intrinsic growth rate by determining a significant enrichment in growth-associated genes among genes targeted by top growth-associated SNPs (as eQTLs. The estimated intrinsic growth rate as well as the strength of the association with genetic variants and gene expression traits are made publicly available through a cell-based pharmacogenomics database, PACdb. This resource should enable researchers to explore the mediating effects of proliferation rate on other phenotypes.

  14. Motivation for Palatable Food Despite Consequences in an Animal Model of Binge-Eating

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oswald, Kimberly D.; Murdaugh, Donna L.; King, Vinetra L.; Boggiano, Mary M.

    2010-01-01

    Objective Binge-eating involves an abnormal motivation for highly palatable food in that these foods are repeatedly consumed despite their binge-triggering effects and life-affecting consequences associated with binge-eating. We determined if rats identified as binge-eating prone (BEP) similarly display abnormal motivation for palatable food. Method Food-sated BEP and binge-eating resistant (BER) rats were given voluntary access to palatable food paired with increasing intensity of footshock. Later, they were exposed to a period of cyclic caloric restriction-refeeding. Results BEPs consumed significantly more and tolerated higher levels of footshock for palatable food than BERs. Cyclic restriction-refeeding increased BERs' tolerance of shock for palatable food. Discussion Previously observed parallels of the rat BEP model to human binge-eating can now be extended to include an abnormal motivation for palatable food. This model should prove useful in identifying specific genes that interact with the nutritional environment to mediate binge-eating and may point to novel physiological targets to treat compulsive overeating. PMID:20186718

  15. New animal model of emotional stress: Behavioral, neuroendocrine and immunological consequences

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LIN Wenjuan; WANG Weiwen; SHAO Feng

    2003-01-01

    This report describes a new model of emotional stress, which was induced by randomly giving an empty water bottle to rats during watering periods per day for 14 consecutive days. The behavioral, endocrinological and immunological consequences were investigated. The data showed that the emotional stress activated both the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis and the sympathetic nervous system, leading to the increased blood levels of corticosterone and catecholamine. It also elicited attacking and exploring behavior, suppressed the immune function of the rats, including leukocyte counts, weight of the spleen, and the level of specific anti-ovalbumin IgG antibody production. Presenting no water and no empty bottle to rats only evoked the exploring behavior, increased the corticosterone level and decreased the leukocyte counts. These findings demonstrate a role of psychological factors on behavioral, endocrinological and immunological functioning. The animal model described in the present study may serve as an analogue mimicking emotional stress experienced in humans (e.g. anger and/or anxiety), and may be useful for further studying the complex relationships among emotional stress, behavior, and immune function.

  16. A dynamic food-chain model and program for predicting the consequences of nuclear accident

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    1998-01-01

    A dynamic food-chain model and program, DYFOM-95, forpredicting the radiological consequences of nuclear accident hasbeen developed, which is not only suitable to the West food-chainbut also to Chinese food chain. The following processes, caused byaccident release which will make an impact on radionuclideconcentration in the edible parts of vegetable are considered: dryand wet deposition interception and initial retention,translocation, percolation, root uptake and tillage. Activityintake rate of animals, effects of processing and activity intakeof human through ingestion pathway are also considered incalculations. The effects of leaf area index LAI of vegetable areconsidered in dry deposition model. A method for calculating thecontribution of rain with different period and different intensityto total wet deposition is established. The program contains 1 maincode and 5 sub-codes to calculate dry and wet deposition on surfaceof vegetable and soil, translocation of nuclides in vegetable,nuclide concentration in the edible parts of vegetable and inanimal products and activity intake of human and so on.

  17. Possible consequences of increasing life expectancy in Brazil: the perspective of a European historical demographer Possíveis conseqüências da crescente longevidade no Brasil: perspectiva de um demógrafo

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arthur E. Imhof

    1987-10-01

    Full Text Available Those over sixty years of age accounted for 6.6% of the total population of Brazil in 1985, in the Federal Republic of Germany this proportion was 20.3% in 1984. As early as 1950 it had been 14.5%. This proportion will not even be reached in Brazil in the year 2000 when persons aged sixty years and older are only projected to make up 8.8% of the total population. Similarly, in 1982/84 life expectancy at birth in the Federal Republic was 70.8 years for men and 77.5 for women; in Brazil the figures for 1980/85 were, by contrast, "only" 61.0 and 66.0. Against this background it is easy to understand why the discussion concerning an ageing society with its many related medical, economic, individual and social problems has been so slow in coming into its own in Brazil. As important as a more intensive consideration of these aspects may be in Brazil at present, they are, nevertheless, only one side of the story. For a European historical demographer with a long-term perspective of three of four hundred years, the other side of the story is just as important. The life expectancy which is almost ten years lower in Brazil is not a result of the fact that no one in Brazil lives to old age. In 1981 people sixty-five years and older accounted for 34.4% of all deaths! At the same time infants accounted for only 22.1% of total mortality. They are responsible, along with the "premature" deaths among youths and adults, for the low, "average" life expectancy figure. In Europe, by contrast, these "premature" deaths no longer play much of a role. In 1982/84 more than half of the women (52.8% in the Federal Republic of Germany lived to see their eightieth birthdays and almost half of the men (47.3% lived to see their seventy-fifth. Our biological existence is guaranteed to an extent today that would have been unthinkable a few generations ago. Then, the classic troika of "plague, hunger and war" threatened our forefathers all the time and everywhere. The radical

  18. Impact of Uncertainty in SWAT Model Simulations on Consequent Decisions on Optimal Crop Management Practices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krishnan, N.; Sudheer, K. P.; Raj, C.; Chaubey, I.

    2015-12-01

    The diminishing quantities of non-renewable forms of energy have caused an increasing interest in the renewable sources of energy, such as biofuel, in the recent years. However, the demand for biofuel has created a concern for allocating grain between the fuel and food industry. Consequently, appropriate regulations that limit grain based ethanol production have been developed and are put to practice, which resulted in cultivating perennial grasses like Switch grass and Miscanthus to meet the additional cellulose demand. A change in cropping and management practice, therefore, is essential to cater the conflicting requirement for food and biofuel, which has a long-term impact on the downstream water quality. Therefore it is essential to implement optimal cropping practices to reduce the pollutant loadings. Simulation models in conjunction with optimization procedures are useful in developing efficient cropping practices in such situations. One such model is the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), which can simulate both the water and the nutrient cycle, as well as quantify long-term impacts of changes in management practice in the watershed. It is envisaged that the SWAT model, along with an optimization algorithm, can be used to identify the optimal cropping pattern that achieves the minimum guaranteed grain production with less downstream pollution, while maximizing the biomass production for biofuel generation. However, the SWAT simulations do have a certain level of uncertainty that needs to be accounted for before making decisions. Therefore, the objectives of this study are twofold: (i) to understand how model uncertainties influence decision-making, and (ii) to develop appropriate management scenarios that account the uncertainty. The simulation uncertainty of the SWAT model is assessed using Shuffled Complex Evolutionary Metropolis Algorithm (SCEM). With the data collected from St. Joseph basin, IN, USA, the preliminary results indicate that model

  19. The Economic Consequences of a Large EMU Results of Macroeconomic Model Simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fritz Breuss

    1997-05-01

    Full Text Available Recent economic forecasts increase the probability that firstly, the EMU can start as planned on January 1, 1999 and secondly, that it will start with a large group of countries. The economic implications of the artificially unification of "hard-currency" and "soft-currency" countries are analysed by means of macroeconomic model simulations. The results of a large "non-optimal" EMU are as expected. On the one hand, there are positive income effects for all countries although unevenly distributed over the participants on the other hand, the internal (inflation and external (value of the Euro vis-à-vis the Dollar stability are at risk. The "hard-currency" group will be the major winner (in terms of real GDP and employment, whereas the "soft-currency" group has to carry the adjustment costs to a regime of fixed exchange rates (Euro which results in slower growth, decline in employment and a deterioration of their budgetary position. The necessary convergence of prices and interest rates leads to an increase (decrease of inflation and interest rates in the "hard-currency" countries ("soft-currency" countries. If the EMU will start with a large group there will be a tendency to devalue the Euro against the Dollar. As a consequence of the uneven economic performance of a large (non-optimal EMU I would suggest to start the EMU with a core group of "hard-currency" countries. After this mini EMU succeeded the other Member States could join the EMU.

  20. Current models of the observable consequences of cosmic reionization and their detectability

    CERN Document Server

    Iliev, Ilian T; Pen, Ue-Li; Bond, J Richard; Shapiro, Paul R

    2007-01-01

    A number of large current experiments aim to detect the signatures of the Cosmic Reionization at redshifts z>6. Their success depends crucially on understanding the character of the reionization process and its observable consequences and designing the best strategies to use. We use large-scale simulations of cosmic reionization to evaluate the reionization signatures at redshifted 21-cm and small-scale CMB anisotropies in the best current model for the background universe, with fundamental cosmological parameters given by WMAP 3-year results (WMAP3). We find that the optimal frequency range for observing the ``global step'' of the 21-cm emission is 120-150 MHz, while statistical studies should aim at 140-160 MHz, observable by GMRT. Some strongly-nongaussian brightness features should be detectable at frequencies up to ~190 MHz. In terms of sensitivity-signal trade-off relatively low resolutions, corresponding to beams of at least a few arcminutes, are preferable. The CMB anisotropy signal from the kinetic S...

  1. Education Reform in Hong Kong: The ``Through-Road'' Model and its Societal Consequences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poon, Anita Y. K.; Wong, Yiu-Chung

    2008-01-01

    Although Hong Kong's education system has long been criticized as lacking in creativity and over-emphasising rote learning, on the whole it has served Hong Kong well in the past years, breeding outstanding business, academic and political leaders who continue to maintain Hong Kong's competitive edge. The traditional elite schools have played a crucial role in the process. The education reform, which is still on-going, aims to overhaul the entire system by introducing the "through-road" model. To accomplish this, some mechanisms need to be changed. J.P. Farrell's concepts of equality and equity, C.W. Mills' concept of elitism, and P. Bourdieu and J. Coleman's concepts of cultural and social capital will be applied to analyse the consequences of the reform. The paper argues that the education reform may be well-intentioned in eliminating some elements of inequality and inequity in education, but that this comes at the expense of Hong Kong's cultural and social capital and leads to the development of new forms of inequality.

  2. Surety of human elements of high consequence systems: An organic model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    FORSYTHE,JAMES C.; WENNER,CAREN A.

    2000-04-25

    Despite extensive safety analysis and application of safety measures, there is a frequent lament, ``Why do we continue to have accidents?'' Two breakdowns are prevalent in risk management and prevention. First, accidents result from human actions that engineers, analysts and management never envisioned and second, controls, intended to preclude/mitigate accident sequences, prove inadequate. This paper addresses the first breakdown, the inability to anticipate scenarios involving human action/inaction. The failure of controls has been addressed in a previous publication (Forsythe and Grose, 1998). Specifically, this paper presents an approach referred to as surety. The objective of this approach is to provide high levels of assurance in situations where potential system failure paths cannot be fully characterized. With regard to human elements of complex systems, traditional approaches to human reliability are not sufficient to attain surety. Consequently, an Organic Model has been developed to account for the organic properties exhibited by engineered systems that result from human involvement in those systems.

  3. Modeling the fitness consequences of a cyanophage-encoded photosynthesis gene.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jason G Bragg

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Phages infecting marine picocyanobacteria often carry a psbA gene, which encodes a homolog to the photosynthetic reaction center protein, D1. Host encoded D1 decays during phage infection in the light. Phage encoded D1 may help to maintain photosynthesis during the lytic cycle, which in turn could bolster the production of deoxynucleoside triphosphates (dNTPs for phage genome replication. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: To explore the consequences to a phage of encoding and expressing psbA, we derive a simple model of infection for a cyanophage/host pair--cyanophage P-SSP7 and Prochlorococcus MED4--for which pertinent laboratory data are available. We first use the model to describe phage genome replication and the kinetics of psbA expression by host and phage. We then examine the contribution of phage psbA expression to phage genome replication under constant low irradiance (25 microE m(-2 s(-1. We predict that while phage psbA expression could lead to an increase in the number of phage genomes produced during a lytic cycle of between 2.5 and 4.5% (depending on parameter values, this advantage can be nearly negated by the cost of psbA in elongating the phage genome. Under higher irradiance conditions that promote D1 degradation, however, phage psbA confers a greater advantage to phage genome replication. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: These analyses illustrate how psbA may benefit phage in the dynamic ocean surface mixed layer.

  4. The Economic Consequences of a Large EMU Results of Macroeconomic Model Simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fritz Breuss

    1997-05-01

    Full Text Available Recent economic forecasts increase the probability that firstly, the EMU can start as planned on January 1, 1999 and secondly, that it will start with a large group of countries. The economic implications of the artificially unification of "hard-currency" and "soft-currency" countries are analysed by means of macroeconomic model simulations. The results of a large "non-optimal" EMU are as expected. On the one hand, there are positive income effects for all countries although unevenly distributed over the participants on the other hand, the internal (inflation and external (value of the Euro vis-à-vis the Dollar stability are at risk. The "hard-currency" group will be the major winner (in terms of real GDP and employment, whereas the "soft-currency" group has to carry the adjustment costs to a regime of fixed exchange rates (Euro which results in slower growth, decline in employment and a deterioration of their budgetary position. The necessary convergence of prices and interest rates leads to an increase (decrease of inflation and interest rates in the "hard-currency" countries ("soft-currency" countries. If the EMU will start with a large group there will be a tendency to devalue the Euro against the Dollar. As a consequence of the uneven economic performance of a large (non-optimal EMU I would suggest to start the EMU with a core group of "hard-currency" countries. After this mini EMU succeeded the other Member States could join the EMU.

  5. The Economic Consequences of a Large EMU – Results of Macroeconomic Model Simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fritz Breuss

    1997-05-01

    Full Text Available Recent economic forecasts increase the probability that firstly, the EMU can start as planned on January 1, 1999 and secondly, that it will start with a large group of countries. The economic implications of the artificially unification of "hard-currency" and "soft-currency" countries are analysed by means of macroeconomic model simulations. The results of a large "non-optimal" EMU are as expected. On the one hand, there are positive income effects for all countries – although unevenly distributed over the participants – on the other hand, the internal (inflation and external (value of the Euro vis-à-vis the Dollar stability are at risk. The "hard-currency" group will be the major winner (in terms of real GDP and employment, whereas the "soft-currency" group has to carry the adjustment costs to a regime of fixed exchange rates (Euro which results in slower growth, decline in employment and a deterioration of their budgetary position. The necessary convergence of prices and interest rates leads to an increase (decrease of inflation and interest rates in the "hard-currency" countries ("soft-currency" countries. If the EMU will start with a large group there will be a tendency to devalue the Euro against the Dollar. As a consequence of the uneven economic performance of a large (non-optimal EMU I would suggest to start the EMU with a core group of "hard-currency" countries. After this mini EMU succeeded the other Member States could join the EMU.

  6. Increased Foraging in Outdoor Organic Pig Production-Modeling Environmental Consequences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jakobsen, Malene; Preda, Teodora; Kongsted, Anne Grete; Hermansen, John Erik

    2015-11-02

    Consumers' motivations for buying organic products include a wish of acquiring healthy, environmentally friendly products from production systems that also ensure a high level of animal welfare. However, the current Danish organic pig production faces important challenges regarding environmental impact of the system. High ammonia emissions arise from outdoor concrete areas with growing pigs and sows on pasture possess an increased risk of nitrogen (N) leaching. Direct foraging in the range area is suggested as a way to improve the nutrient efficiency at farm level and to support a more natural behavior of the pig. Thus, by modeling, we investigated the environmental consequences of two alternative scenarios with growing pigs foraging in the range area and different levels of crops available for foraging-grass-clover or a combination of Jerusalem artichokes and lucerne. It was possible to have growing pigs on free-range without increasing N leaching compared to the current practice. The alternative system with Jerusalem artichokes and lucerne (high integration of forage) showed the lowest carbon foot print with 3.12 CO₂ eq kg(-1) live weight pig compared to the current Danish pasture based system with 3.69 kg CO₂ eq kg(-1) live weight pig. Due to positive impact on soil carbon sequestration, the second alternative system based on grass-clover (low integration of forage) showed a similar carbon foot print compared to current practice with 3.68 kg CO₂ eq kg(-1) live weight pig. It is concluded that in practice there is room for development of organic farming systems where direct foraging plays a central role.

  7. A stochastic model for simulation of the economic consequences of bovine virus diarrhoea virus infection in a dairy herd

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, J.T.; Enevoldsen, Carsten; Houe, H.

    1995-01-01

    A dynamic, stochastic model simulating the technical and economic consequences of bovine virus diarrhoea virus (BVDV) infections for a dairy cattle herd for use on a personal computer was developed. The production and state changes of the herd were simulated by state changes of the individual cows...... modelling principle. The validation problem in relation to the model was discussed. A comparison between real and simulated data using data from a published case report was shown to illustrate how user acceptance can be obtained....

  8. Modelling population-level consequences of chronic external gamma irradiation in aquatic invertebrates under laboratory conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lance, Emilie [Laboratoire de modelisation pour l' expertise environnementale (LM2E) Institut de Radioprotection et de Surete Nucleaire (IRSN), PRP-ENV, SERIS, Cadarache (France); Alonzo, Frederic, E-mail: frederic.alonzo@irsn.fr [Laboratoire d' ecotoxicologie des radionucleides (LECO) Institut de Radioprotection et de Surete Nucleaire (IRSN), PRP-ENV, SERIS, Cadarache (France); Garcia-Sanchez, Laurent [Laboratoire de biogeochimie, biodisponibilite et transferts des radionucleides (L2BT) Institut de Radioprotection et de Surete Nucleaire (IRSN), PRP-ENV, SERIS, Cadarache (France); Beaugelin-Seiller, Karine; Garnier-Laplace, Jacqueline [Laboratoire de modelisation pour l' expertise environnementale (LM2E) Institut de Radioprotection et de Surete Nucleaire (IRSN), PRP-ENV, SERIS, Cadarache (France)

    2012-07-01

    We modelled population-level consequences of chronic external gamma irradiation in aquatic invertebrates under laboratory conditions. We used Leslie matrices to combine life-history characteristics (duration of life stages, survival and fecundity rates) and dose rate-response curves for hatching, survival and reproduction fitted on effect data from the FREDERICA database. Changes in net reproductive rate R{sub 0} (offspring per individual) and asymptotic population growth rate {lambda} (dimensionless) were calculated over a range of dose rates in two marine polychaetes (Neanthes arenaceodentata and Ophryotrocha diadema) and a freshwater gastropod (Physa heterostropha). Sensitivities in R{sub 0} and {lambda} to changes in life-history traits were analysed in each species. Results showed that fecundity has the strongest influence on R{sub 0}. A delay in age at first reproduction is most critical for {lambda} independent of the species. Fast growing species were proportionally more sensitive to changes in individual endpoints than slow growing species. Reduction of 10% in population {lambda} were predicted at dose rates of 6918, 5012 and 74,131 {mu}Gy{center_dot}h{sup -1} in N. arenaceodentata, O. diadema and P. heterostropha respectively, resulting from a combination of strong effects on several individual endpoints in each species. These observations made 10%-reduction in {lambda} a poor criterion for population protection. The lowest significant changes in R{sub 0} and {lambda} were respectively predicted at a same dose rate of 1412 {mu}Gy h{sup -1} in N. arenaceodentata, at 760 and 716 {mu}Gy h{sup -1} in O. diadema and at 12,767 and 13,759 {mu}Gy h{sup -1} in P. heterostropha. These values resulted from a combination of slight but significant changes in several measured endpoints and were lower than effective dose rates calculated for the individual level in O. diadema and P. heterostropha. The relevance of the experimental dataset (external irradiation rather

  9. Modelling food safety and economic consequences of surveillance and control stratigegies for Salmonella in pigs and pork

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baptista, Filipa M.; Hisham Beshara Halasa, Tariq; Alban, Liza R.;

    2011-01-01

    Targets for maximum acceptable levels of Salmonella in pigs and pork are to be decided. A stochastic simulation model accounting for herd and abattoir information was used to evaluate food safety and economic consequences of different surveillance and control strategies, based among others on Dan...

  10. Consequences of increasing bioenergy demand on wood and forests: an application of the global forest products model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joseph Buongiorno; Ronald Raunikar; Shushuai Zhu

    2011-01-01

    The Global Forest Products Model (GFPM) was applied to project the consequences for the global forest sector of doubling the rate of growth of bioenergy demand relative to a base scenario, other drivers being maintained constant. The results showed that this would lead to the convergence of the price of fuelwood and industrial roundwood, raising the price of industrial...

  11. Assessing the roles of impulsivity, food-related cognitions, BMI, and demographics in the dual pathway model of binge eating among men and women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mason, Tyler B; Lewis, Robin J

    2015-08-01

    The dual pathway model is a widely accepted model of binge eating that focuses on the role of sociocultural factors, negative affect, and dietary restraint. However, less is known about demographic (e.g., gender and ethnicity) differences in the model and the role of other variables in the model. To further our understanding of the dual pathway model of binge eating, the current study examined the role of demographics (i.e., gender, race, BMI, parental education and obesity), impulsivity, and food-related cognitions in the dual pathway model. A sample of college students completed a battery of measures. Multi-group structural equation modeling was used to evaluate the dual pathway model separately for men and women. Results supported the dual pathway model of binge eating among men and women, and also supported food-related cognitions as an important variable prior to binge eating. In other words, body shame was associated with more dietary restraint and negative affect, and in turn, dietary restraint and negative affect were associated with increased negative food-related cognitions. Then, food-related cognitions predicted binge eating. Additionally impulsivity was related to body shame, negative affect, and food-related cognitions, but was unrelated to binge eating after controlling for the other variables. Racial differences existed among women in BMI and body shame, but there were no racial differences among men. Our results suggest that the dual pathway model adequately explains binge eating among men and women, but that food-related cognitions may be an imporant anteceden to binge eating.

  12. The Population Consequences of Disturbance Model Application to North Atlantic Right Whales (Eubalaena glacialis)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-09-30

    Application to North Atlantic Right Whales (Eubalaena glacialis) Scott D. Kraus Vice President of Research New England Aquarium Central Wharf, Boston...physiology, and the revised approach is called PCOD (Population Consequences Of Disturbance). In North Atlantic right whales (Eubalaena glacialis...visual observations of health, human impacts (including entanglements and ship strikes), and whale locations to provide estimates of true underlying

  13. Antecedents and Consequences of Retirement Planning and Decision-Making: A Meta-Analysis and Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Topa, Gabriela; Moriano, Juan Antonio; Depolo, Marco; Alcover, Carlos-Maria; Morales, J. Francisco

    2009-01-01

    In this study, meta-analytic procedures were used to examine the relationships between retirement planning, retirement decision and their antecedent and consequences. Our review of the literature generated 341 independent samples obtained from 99 primary studies with 188,222 participants. A small effect size (ES) for antecedents of retirement…

  14. Democratic constraints on demographic policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grigsby, J S

    1984-01-01

    The discussion compares the population policies adopted in Sweden during the 1930s to raise fertiity and the policies considered in the US during the 1970s in response to the high fertility experienced in the 1950s. Both sets of policies recommended increased availability of birth control, more liberal abortion laws, and greater employment opportunities for women. It becomes evident that the constraints imposed by a democratic system of government translate into policy recommendations that place individual freedom of choice and equal opportunity for all citizens as higher goals than any specific demographic target. Consequently, the population commissions of Sweden and the US made similar suggestions on how to resolve their opposite demographic problems. The demographic situations in the 2 nations were antipodal, and the countries also had very different social climates. This additional disparity was insufficient to counterbalance the apparently overwhelming influence of the democratic political systems in making virtually identical policy recommendations. Yet, the contrasting social climates of Sweden in 1935 and the US in 1970-72 may explain the different reactions each commission received. In terms of the responses by both citizens and government officials to the commissions' reports, the Swedish commission was more successful. Practically all of their recommendations were enthusiastically received and quickly adopted by the Swedish Riksdag. Yet, when the criterion for success becomes whether or not a demographic target was met, it increased in the 1940s and then dropped again while the same social policies were in effect. Even before the US commission began its study, fertility in the US had fallen and continues to remain low. These findings suggest that commissions in democratic countries will most likely never recommend dramatic measures in population policy. Thus, it is questionable whether such commissions in democratic nations will totally fulfill the

  15. Research Note: The consequences of different methods for handling missing network data in Stochastic Actor Based Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hipp, John R; Wang, Cheng; Butts, Carter T; Jose, Rupa; Lakon, Cynthia M

    2015-05-01

    Although stochastic actor based models (e.g., as implemented in the SIENA software program) are growing in popularity as a technique for estimating longitudinal network data, a relatively understudied issue is the consequence of missing network data for longitudinal analysis. We explore this issue in our research note by utilizing data from four schools in an existing dataset (the AddHealth dataset) over three time points, assessing the substantive consequences of using four different strategies for addressing missing network data. The results indicate that whereas some measures in such models are estimated relatively robustly regardless of the strategy chosen for addressing missing network data, some of the substantive conclusions will differ based on the missing data strategy chosen. These results have important implications for this burgeoning applied research area, implying that researchers should more carefully consider how they address missing data when estimating such models.

  16. Risk adjustment models for interhospital comparison of CS rates using Robson's ten group classification system and other socio-demographic and clinical variables.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colais, Paola; Fantini, Maria P; Fusco, Danilo; Carretta, Elisa; Stivanello, Elisa; Lenzi, Jacopo; Pieri, Giulia; Perucci, Carlo A

    2012-06-21

    Caesarean section (CS) rate is a quality of health care indicator frequently used at national and international level. The aim of this study was to assess whether adjustment for Robson's Ten Group Classification System (TGCS), and clinical and socio-demographic variables of the mother and the fetus is necessary for inter-hospital comparisons of CS rates. The study population includes 64,423 deliveries in Emilia-Romagna between January 1, 2003 and December 31, 2004, classified according to theTGCS. Poisson regression was used to estimate crude and adjusted hospital relative risks of CS compared to a reference category. Analyses were carried out in the overall population and separately according to the Robson groups (groups I, II, III, IV and V-X combined). Adjusted relative risks (RR) of CS were estimated using two risk-adjustment models; the first (M1) including the TGCS group as the only adjustment factor; the second (M2) including in addition demographic and clinical confounders identified using a stepwise selection procedure. Percentage variations between crude and adjusted RRs by hospital were calculated to evaluate the confounding effect of covariates. The percentage variations from crude to adjusted RR proved to be similar in M1 and M2 model. However, stratified analyses by Robson's classification groups showed that residual confounding for clinical and demographic variables was present in groups I (nulliparous, single, cephalic, ≥37 weeks, spontaneous labour) and III (multiparous, excluding previous CS, single, cephalic, ≥37 weeks, spontaneous labour) and IV (multiparous, excluding previous CS, single, cephalic, ≥37 weeks, induced or CS before labour) and to a minor extent in groups II (nulliparous, single, cephalic, ≥37 weeks, induced or CS before labour) and IV (multiparous, excluding previous CS, single, cephalic, ≥37 weeks, induced or CS before labour). The TGCS classification is useful for inter-hospital comparison of CS section rates, but

  17. Using experiments and demographic models to assess rare plant vulnerability to utlity-scale solar energy development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, K. A.

    2015-12-01

    Pressing challenges for the implementation of solar energy are the effects of construction and operation on protected animal and plant species. Siting and mitigation of solar energy often requires understanding of basic biology and distributions of rare species that are unknown. How can we rapidly collect the information necessary on species- and site-specific population dynamics to effectively design mitigation and conservation measures? We have developed an integrated approach to assessing the vulnerability of a suite of representative rare plant species in the region. We implemented a prioritized series of demographic and experimental studies over the past four years to identify the types of species, populations, and life stages most vulnerable to impact or prone to conservation efforts. We have found substantial variation in vegetative and sexual reproduction between study populations for several rare plants, including between populations that vary in putative impact by development and/or effects of experimental solar arrays. For a subset of species, we designed population viability analysis and applied them to identify sensitive vital rates and compare quasi-extinction probabilities under different climate and impact scenarios. By utilizing practical experiments to test for the effects of real or simulated impacts, we found differences in vital rates between natural and disturbed populations adjacent to and within solar installations. We draw conclusions from our work to guide the analysis of benefits, permitting, and design of utility-scale solar energy facilities.

  18. Do Insect Populations Die at Constant Rates as They Become Older? Contrasting Demographic Failure Kinetics with Respect to Temperature According to the Weibull Model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petros Damos

    Full Text Available Temperature implies contrasting biological causes of demographic aging in poikilotherms. In this work, we used the reliability theory to describe the consistency of mortality with age in moth populations and to show that differentiation in hazard rates is related to extrinsic environmental causes such as temperature. Moreover, experiments that manipulate extrinsic mortality were used to distinguish temperature-related death rates and the pertinence of the Weibull aging model. The Newton-Raphson optimization method was applied to calculate parameters for small samples of ages at death by estimating the maximum likelihoods surfaces using scored gradient vectors and the Hessian matrix. The study reveals for the first time that the Weibull function is able to describe contrasting biological causes of demographic aging for moth populations maintained at different temperature regimes. We demonstrate that at favourable conditions the insect death rate accelerates as age advances, in contrast to the extreme temperatures in which each individual drifts toward death in a linear fashion and has a constant chance of passing away. Moreover, slope of hazard rates shifts towards a constant initial rate which is a pattern demonstrated by systems which are not wearing out (e.g. non-aging since the failure, or death, is a random event independent of time. This finding may appear surprising, because, traditionally, it was mostly thought as rule that in aging population force of mortality increases exponentially until all individuals have died. Moreover, in relation to other studies, we have not observed any typical decelerating aging patterns at late life (mortality leveling-off, but rather, accelerated hazard rates at optimum temperatures and a stabilized increase at the extremes.In most cases, the increase in aging-related mortality was simulated reasonably well according to the Weibull survivorship model that is applied. Moreover, semi log- probability hazard

  19. Laboratory Demographics Lookup Tool

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — This website provides demographic information about laboratories, including CLIA number, facility name and address, where the laboratory testing is performed, the...

  20. Advances in National Capabilities for Consequence Assessment Modeling of Airborne Hazards

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nasstrom, J; Sugiyama, G; Foster, K; Larsen, S; Kosovic, B; Eme, B; Walker, H; Goldstein, P; Lundquist, J; Pobanz, B; Fulton, J

    2007-11-26

    This paper describes ongoing advancement of airborne hazard modeling capabilities in support of multiple agencies through the National Atmospheric Release Advisory Center (NARAC) and the Interagency Atmospheric Modeling and Atmospheric Assessment Center (IMAAC). A suite of software tools developed by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) and collaborating organizations includes simple stand-alone, local-scale plume modeling tools for end user's computers, Web- and Internet-based software to access advanced 3-D flow and atmospheric dispersion modeling tools and expert analysis from the national center at LLNL, and state-of-the-science high-resolution urban models and event reconstruction capabilities.

  1. A stochastic model for simulation of the economic consequences of bovine virus diarrhoea virus infection in a dairy herd

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, J.T.; Enevoldsen, Carsten; Houe, H.

    1995-01-01

    A dynamic, stochastic model simulating the technical and economic consequences of bovine virus diarrhoea virus (BVDV) infections for a dairy cattle herd for use on a personal computer was developed. The production and state changes of the herd were simulated by state changes of the individual cows...... variables describing biologic and management variables including 21 decision variables describing the effect of BVDV infection on the production of the individual animal. Two markedly different scenarios were simulated to demonstrate the behaviour of the developed model and the potentials of the applied...

  2. Investigating patient safety culture across a health system: multilevel modelling of differences associated with service types and staff demographics

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Gallego, Blanca; Westbrook, Mary T; Dunn, Adam G; Braithwaite, Jeffrey

    2012-01-01

    To use multilevel modelling to compare the patient safety cultures of types of services across a health system and to determine whether differences found can be accounted for by staffs' professions...

  3. TU-C-12A-09: Modeling Pathologic Response of Locally Advanced Esophageal Cancer to Chemo-Radiotherapy Using Quantitative PET/CT Features, Clinical Parameters and Demographics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, H; Chen, W; Kligerman, S; D’Souza, W; Suntharalingam, M; Lu, W [University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD (United States); Tan, S [Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan (China); Kim, G [Duke University, High Point, NC (United States)

    2014-06-15

    Purpose: To develop predictive models using quantitative PET/CT features for the evaluation of tumor response to neoadjuvant chemo-radiotherapy (CRT) in patients with locally advanced esophageal cancer. Methods: This study included 20 patients who underwent tri-modality therapy (CRT + surgery) and had {sup 18}F-FDG PET/CT scans before initiation of CRT and 4-6 weeks after completion of CRT but prior to surgery. Four groups of tumor features were examined: (1) conventional PET/CT response measures (SUVmax, tumor diameter, etc.); (2) clinical parameters (TNM stage, histology, etc.) and demographics; (3) spatial-temporal PET features, which characterize tumor SUV intensity distribution, spatial patterns, geometry, and associated changes resulting from CRT; and (4) all features combined. An optimal feature set was identified with recursive feature selection and cross-validations. Support vector machine (SVM) and logistic regression (LR) models were constructed for prediction of pathologic tumor response to CRT, using cross-validations to avoid model over-fitting. Prediction accuracy was assessed via area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), and precision was evaluated via confidence intervals (CIs) of AUC. Results: When applied to the 4 groups of tumor features, the LR model achieved AUCs (95% CI) of 0.57 (0.10), 0.73 (0.07), 0.90 (0.06), and 0.90 (0.06). The SVM model achieved AUCs (95% CI) of 0.56 (0.07), 0.60 (0.06), 0.94 (0.02), and 1.00 (no misclassifications). Using spatial-temporal PET features combined with conventional PET/CT measures and clinical parameters, the SVM model achieved very high accuracy (AUC 1.00) and precision (no misclassifications), significantly better than using conventional PET/CT measures or clinical parameters and demographics alone. For groups with a large number of tumor features (groups 3 and 4), the SVM model achieved significantly higher accuracy than the LR model. Conclusion: The SVM model using all features

  4. Childhood body mass index trajectories: modeling, characterizing, pairwise correlations and socio-demographic predictors of trajectory characteristics

    OpenAIRE

    Wen Xiaozhong; Kleinman Ken; Gillman Matthew W; Rifas-Shiman Sheryl L; Taveras Elsie M

    2012-01-01

    Abstract Background Modeling childhood body mass index (BMI) trajectories, versus estimating change in BMI between specific ages, may improve prediction of later body-size-related outcomes. Prior studies of BMI trajectories are limited by restricted age periods and insufficient use of trajectory information. Methods Among 3,289 children seen at 81,550 pediatric well-child visits from infancy to 18 years between 1980 and 2008, we fit individual BMI trajectories using mixed effect models with f...

  5. Demographic projection of high-elevation white pines infected with white pine blister rust: a nonlinear disease model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Field, S G; Schoettle, A W; Klutsch, J G; Tavener, S J; Antolin, M F

    2012-01-01

    Matrix population models have long been used to examine and predict the fate of threatened populations. However, the majority of these efforts concentrate on long-term equilibrium dynamics of linear systems and their underlying assumptions and, therefore, omit the analysis of transience. Since management decisions are typically concerned with the short-term (blister rust (WPBR). We evaluate the model using newly developed software to calculate sensitivity and elasticity for nonlinear population models at any projected time step. We concentrate on two points in time, during transience and at equilibrium, and under two scenarios: a regenerating pine stand following environmental disturbance and a stand perturbed by the introduction of WPBR. The model includes strong density-dependent effects on population dynamics, particularly on seedling recruitment, and results in a structure favoring large trees. However, the introduction of WPBR and its associated disease-induced mortality alters stand structure in favor of smaller stages. Populations with infection probability (beta) > or = 0.1 do not reach a stable coexisting equilibrium and deterministically approach extinction. The model enables field observations of low infection prevalence among pine seedlings to be reinterpreted as resulting from disease-induced mortality and short residence time in the seedling stage. Sensitivities and elasticities, combined with model output, suggest that future efforts should focus on improving estimates of within-stand competition, infection probability, and infection cost to survivorship. Mitigating these effects where intervention is possible is expected to produce the greatest effect on population dynamics over a typical management timeframe.

  6. Demographic and genetic consequences of disturbed sex determination.

    OpenAIRE

    Wedekind, C

    2017-01-01

    During sex determination, genetic and/or environmental factors determine the cascade of processes of gonad development. Many organisms, therefore, have a developmental window in which their sex determination can be sensitive to, for example, unusual temperatures or chemical pollutants. Disturbed environments can distort population sex ratios and may even cause sex reversal in species with genetic sex determination. The resulting genotype-phenotype mismatches can have long-lasting effects on p...

  7. THE MODELING OF DRUG ADDICTION PREVALENCE AND ITS CONSEQUENCES IN RUSSIAN REGIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V.P. Sirotin

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available The narcotization prevalence in Russia as whole and its regions is described. In order to provide the adequate models the clusters of regions on the level of their economic development are defined. For every group the regression model of drug addiction social distress is constructed. Modeling results allow to find the features of regions and the most significant factors determining the drug addiction prevalence.

  8. Population-level consequences of spatially heterogeneous exposure to heavy metals in soil: An individual-based model of springtails

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Meli, Mattia; Auclerc, Apolline; Palmqvist, Annemette

    2013-01-01

    Contamination of soil with toxic heavy metals poses a major threat to the environment and human health. Anthropogenic sources include smelting of ores, municipal wastes, fertilizers, and pesticides. In assessing soil quality and the environmental and ecological risk of contamination with heavy...... metals, often homogeneous contamination of the soil is assumed. However, soils are very heterogeneous environments. Consequently, both contamination and the response of soil organisms can be assumed to be heterogeneous. This might have consequences for the exposure of soil organisms...... and for the extrapolation of risk from the individual to the population level. Therefore, to explore how soil contamination of different spatial heterogeneity affects population dynamics of soil invertebrates, we developed a spatially explicit individual-based model of the springtail, Folsomia candida, a standard test...

  9. The macroeconomic consequences of renouncing to universal access to antiretroviral treatment for HIV in Africa: a micro-simulation model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ventelou, Bruno; Arrighi, Yves; Greener, Robert; Lamontagne, Erik; Carrieri, Patrizia; Moatti, Jean-Paul

    2012-01-01

    Previous economic literature on the cost-effectiveness of antiretroviral treatment (ART) programs has been mainly focused on the microeconomic consequences of alternative use of resources devoted to the fight against the HIV pandemic. We rather aim at forecasting the consequences of alternative scenarios for the macroeconomic performance of countries. We used a micro-simulation model based on individuals aged 15-49 selected from nationally representative surveys (DHS for Cameroon, Tanzania and Swaziland) to compare alternative scenarios : 1-freezing of ART programs to current levels of access, 2- universal access (scaling up to 100% coverage by 2015, with two variants defining ART eligibility according to previous or current WHO guidelines). We introduced an "artificial" ageing process by programming methods. Individuals could evolve through different health states: HIV negative, HIV positive (with different stages of the syndrome). Scenarios of ART procurement determine this dynamics. The macroeconomic impact is obtained using sample weights that take into account the resulting age-structure of the population in each scenario and modeling of the consequences on total growth of the economy. Increased levels of ART coverage result in decreasing HIV incidence and related mortality. Universal access to ART has a positive impact on workers' productivity; the evaluations performed for Swaziland and Cameroon show that universal access would imply net cost-savings at the scale of the society, when the full macroeconomic consequences are introduced in the calculations. In Tanzania, ART access programs imply a net cost for the economy, but 70% of costs are covered by GDP gains at the 2034 horizon, even in the extended coverage option promoted by WHO guidelines initiating ART at levels of 350 cc/mm(3) CD4 cell counts. Universal Access ART scaling-up strategies, which are more costly in the short term, remain the best economic choice in the long term. Renouncing or

  10. Problems with Current Models of Grieving and Consequences for Older Persons.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horacek, Bruce J.

    Classical models of the grieving process include Freud's concept of withdrawal of ties to the love object called decathexis, and Lindemann's emancipation from the bondage to the deceased involving adjusting to the loss in one's environment and the ability to form new relationships. Most of the models and explanations of the grieving process over…

  11. Had the Planet Mars Not Existed: Kepler's Equant Model and Its Physical Consequences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bracco, C.; Provost, J.P.

    2009-01-01

    We examine the equant model for the motion of planets, which was the starting point of Kepler's investigations before he modified it because of Mars observations. We show that, up to first order in eccentricity, this model implies for each orbit a velocity, which satisfies Kepler's second law and Hamilton's hodograph, and a centripetal…

  12. Comparison of the iPCoD and DEPONS models for modelling population consequences of noise on harbour porpoises

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nabe-Nielsen, Jacob; Harwood, John

    Two different frameworks have been developed to assess the potential effects of noise associated with offshore renewable energy developments on harbour porpoise populations: The Interim Population Consequences of Disturbance (iPCoD) and Disturbance Effects of Noise on the Harbour Porpoise...

  13. A COMPUTER MODEL OF THE CONSEQUENCES OF AIR-FUEL MIXTURE EMERGENCY EXPLOSIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Orishenko I. V.

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available In this article the basic principles of air-fuel mixture explosions and striking factors, such as air-striking wave, gas streams, splinters, flame heat, light radiation and sharp sounds are observed. The calculation technique of the emergency emission consequences which is for a quantitative estimation of air-striking wave parameters at air-fuel mixture explosions forming in the atmosphere at industrial failures is given. The basic structural elements of calculation algorithm are listed. It is supposed partial depressurization or full destruction of the equipment containing combustible substance in a gaseous or liquid phase, the emission of this substance in the atmosphere, the air-fuel mixture cloud formation, the air-fuel mixture initiation (ignition and the explosive transformation (deflagration or detonation in the air-fuel mixture cloud. The technique allows making the approached estimation of air-striking wave various parameters and defining the probable degrees of men defeat and building damage at failures with air-fuel mixture cloud explosions. The given technique is developed in C# language in the integrated environment of software Microsoft VisualStudio 2010 working out. The program fragment in which the calculation of dimensionless Px pressure and dimensionless Ix impulse is given

  14. Atmospheric Consequences of Cosmic Ray Variability in the Extragalactic Shock Model

    CERN Document Server

    Melott, A L; Thomas, B C; Medvedev, M V; Wilson, G W; Murray, M J

    2008-01-01

    It has been suggested that galactic shock asymmetry induced by our galaxy infall toward the Virgo Cluster may be a source of periodicity in cosmic ray exposure as the solar system oscillates normal to the galactic plane, thereby inducing an observed terrestrial periodicity in biodiversity. Here we investigate one possible mechanism, the ionization and dissociation in the atmosphere, resulting in changes in atmospheric chemistry which culminate in the depletion of ozone and a resulting increase in the dangerous solar UVB flux on the ground. We estimate the enhancement of cosmic ray intensity for a range of reasonable parameters of the galactic wind and galactic magnetic field, and use these to compute steady-state atmospheric effects. At the lower end of this range, we find that the effects are far too small to be of serious consequence. At the upper end of this range, the level of ozone depletion approaches that currently experienced due to anthropogenic effects such as accumulated chlorofluorocarbons, i.e. ~...

  15. Find the weakest link. A comparison between demographic, genetic and demo-genetic metapopulation extinction times

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert Alexandre

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background While the ultimate causes of most species extinctions are environmental, environmental constraints have various secondary consequences on evolutionary and ecological processes. The roles of demographic, genetic mechanisms and their interactions in limiting the viabilities of species or populations have stirred much debate and remain difficult to evaluate in the absence of demography-genetics conceptual and technical framework. Here, I computed projected times to metapopulation extinction using (1 a model focusing on the effects of species properties, habitat quality, quantity and temporal variability on the time to demographic extinction; (2 a genetic model focusing on the dynamics of the drift and inbreeding loads under the same species and habitat constraints; (3 a demo-genetic model accounting for demographic-genetic processes and feedbacks. Results Results indicate that a given population may have a high demographic, but low genetic viability or vice versa; and whether genetic or demographic aspects will be the most limiting to overall viability depends on the constraints faced by the species (e.g., reduction of habitat quantity or quality. As a consequence, depending on metapopulation or species characteristics, incorporating genetic considerations to demographically-based viability assessments may either moderately or severely reduce the persistence time. On the other hand, purely genetically-based estimates of species viability may either underestimate (by neglecting demo-genetic interactions or overestimate (by neglecting the demographic resilience true viability. Conclusion Unbiased assessments of the viabilities of species may only be obtained by identifying and considering the most limiting processes (i.e., demography or genetics, or, preferentially, by integrating them.

  16. Forecasting consequences of accidental release: how reliable are current assessment models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rohwer, P.S.; Hoffman, F.O.; Miller, C.W.

    1983-01-01

    This paper focuses on uncertainties in model output used to assess accidents. We begin by reviewing the historical development of assessment models and the associated interest in uncertainties as these evolutionary processes occurred in the United States. This is followed by a description of the sources of uncertainties in assessment calculations. Types of models appropriate for assessment of accidents are identified. A summary of results from our analysis of uncertainty is provided in results obtained with current methodology for assessing routine and accidental radionuclide releases to the environment. We conclude with discussion of preferred procedures and suggested future directions to improve the state-of-the-art of radiological assessments.

  17. Information in stock prices and some consequences: A model-free approach

    OpenAIRE

    Yatracos, Yannis G.

    2015-01-01

    The price of a stock will rarely follow the assumed model and a curious investor or a Regulatory Authority may wish to obtain a probability model the prices support. A risk neutral probability ${\\cal P}^*$ for the stock's price at time $T$ is determined in closed form from the prices before $T$ without assuming a price model. The findings indicate that ${\\cal P}^*$ may be a mixture. Under mild conditions on the prices the necessary and sufficient condition to obtain ${\\cal P}^*$ is the coinci...

  18. One model of modified gravity with dynamical torsion and its cosmological consequences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nikiforova, Vasilisa

    2016-10-01

    We consider a model belonging to the class of Poincarè gauge gravities. The model is free of ghosts, tachyons and gradient instabilities about Minkowski and torsionless Einstein backgrounds of sufficiently small curvature. At zero cosmological constant, the model admits a self-accelerating solution with non-Riemannian connection. We study scalar perturbations about the self-accelerating solution and find that the number of scalar modes is the same as in Minkow ski background; moreover, in the limit of small effective cosmological constant and below the UV cutoff of the low energy effective theory, the scalar sector does not have pathologies like ghosts or rapid gradient instabilities.

  19. One model of modified gravity with dynamical torsion and its cosmological consequences

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nikiforova Vasilisa

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available We consider a model belonging to the class of Poincarè gauge gravities. The model is free of ghosts, tachyons and gradient instabilities about Minkowski and torsionless Einstein backgrounds of sufficiently small curvature. At zero cosmological constant, the model admits a self-accelerating solution with non-Riemannian connection. We study scalar perturbations about the self-accelerating solution and find that the number of scalar modes is the same as in Minkow ski background; moreover, in the limit of small effective cosmological constant and below the UV cutoff of the low energy effective theory, the scalar sector does not have pathologies like ghosts or rapid gradient instabilities.

  20. Potential long-term consequences of fad diets on health, cancer, and longevity: lessons learned from model organism studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruden, Douglas M; Rasouli, Parsa; Lu, Xiangyi

    2007-06-01

    While much of the third world starves, many in the first world are undergoing an obesity epidemic, and the related epidemics of type II diabetes, heart disease, and other diseases associated with obesity. The amount of economic wealth being directly related to a decline in health by obesity is ironic because rich countries contribute billions of dollars to improve the health of their citizens. Nevertheless, nutritional experiments in model organisms such as yeast, C. elegans, Drosophila, and mice confirm that "caloric restriction" (CR), which is defined generally as a 30-40% decrease in caloric intake, a famine-like condition for humans seen only in the poorest of countries, promotes good health and increases longevity in model organisms. Because caloric restriction, and dieting in general, requires a great deal of will power to deal with the feelings of deprivation, many fad diets, such as the Atkins, South Beach, and Protein Power, have been developed which allow people to lose weight purportedly without the severe feelings of deprivation. However, the long-term effects of such fad diets are not known and few experiments have been performed in the laboratory to investigate possible side affects and adverse consequences. In this paper, we review studies with fad-like dietary conditions in humans and model organisms, and we propose a "Dietary Ames Test" to rapidly screen fad diets, dietary supplements, and drugs for potential long-term health consequences in model organisms.

  1. Social and Demographic Factors Associated with Morbidities in Young Children in Egypt: A Bayesian Geo-Additive Semi-Parametric Multinomial Model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Khaled Khatab

    Full Text Available Globally, the burden of mortality in children, especially in poor developing countries, is alarming and has precipitated concern and calls for concerted efforts in combating such health problems. Examples of diseases that contribute to this burden of mortality include diarrhoea, cough, fever, and the overlap between these illnesses, causing childhood morbidity and mortality.To gain insight into these health issues, we employed the 2008 Demographic and Health Survey Data of Egypt, which recorded details from 10,872 children under five. This data focused on the demographic and socio-economic characteristics of household members. We applied a Bayesian multinomial model to assess the area-specific spatial effects and risk factors of co-morbidity of fever, diarrhoea and cough for children under the age of five.The results showed that children under 20 months of age were more likely to have the three diseases (OR: 6.8; 95% CI: 4.6-10.2 than children between 20 and 40 months (OR: 2.14; 95% CI: 1.38-3.3. In multivariate Bayesian geo-additive models, the children of mothers who were over 20 years of age were more likely to have only cough (OR: 1.2; 95% CI: 0.9-1.5 and only fever (OR: 1.2; 95% CI: 0.91-1.51 compared with their counterparts. Spatial results showed that the North-eastern region of Egypt has a higher incidence than most of other regions.This study showed geographic patterns of Egyptian governorates in the combined prevalence of morbidity among Egyptian children. It is obvious that the Nile Delta, Upper Egypt, and south-eastern Egypt have high rates of diseases and are more affected. Therefore, more attention is needed in these areas.

  2. Modelling shelf-ocean exchange and its biogeochemical consequences in coastal upwelling systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Muchamad, Al Azhar

    reactions and biological respiration of marine organic matter (remineralization) under oxic and anoxic conditions. The developed model was coupled into a three-dimensional physical circulation model called the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS). Then, the coupled model was employed and calibrated...... to relatively wide shelf areas because more sinking organic matter reach the shelf sea-floor and remineralize there, enhancing the nutrient trapping effect of the shelf circulation system. These results highlight the important role of the continental shelf bathymetry in modulating the shelf–ocean exchange......The biogeochemical cycles of organic carbon, nutrients, oxygen, and sulfur in the oceans have been suggested to dominantly occur across the shelf–ocean transition over the continental margin, although this zone represents only a small percentage of the global ocean area. Coastal upwelling zones...

  3. Evaluating Outdoor Water Use Demand under Changing Climatic and Demographic Conditions: An Agent-based Modeling Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kanta, L.

    2016-12-01

    Outdoor water use for landscape and irrigation constitutes a significant end use in residential water demand. In periods of water shortages, utilities may reduce garden demands by implementing irrigation system audits, rebate programs, local ordinances, and voluntary or mandatory water use restrictions. Because utilities do not typically record outdoor and indoor water uses separately, the effects of policies for reducing garden demands cannot be readily calculated. The volume of water required to meet garden demands depends on the housing density or lawn size, type of vegetation, climatic conditions, efficiency of garden irrigation systems, and consumer water-use behaviors. Many existing outdoor demand estimation methods are deterministic and do not include consumer responses to conservation campaigns. In addition, mandatory restrictions may have a substantial impact on reducing outdoor demands, but the effectiveness of mandatory restrictions depends on the timing and the frequency of restrictions, in addition to the distribution of housing density and consumer types within a community. This research investigates a garden end-use model by coupling an agent-based modeling approach and a mechanistic-stochastic water demand model to create a methodology for estimating garden demand and evaluating demand reduction policies. The garden demand model is developed for two water utilities, using a diverse data sets, including residential customer billing records, records of outdoor conservation programs, frequency and type of mandatory water use restrictions, lot size distribution, population growth, and climatic data. A set of garden irrigation parameter values, which are based on the efficiency of irrigation systems and irrigation habits of consumers, are determined for a set of conservation ordinances and restrictions. The model parameters are then validated using customer water usage data from the participating water utilities. A sensitivity analysis is conducted for

  4. Beyond the quantum formalism: consequences of a neural-oscillator model to quantum cognition

    CERN Document Server

    de Barros, J Acacio

    2013-01-01

    In this paper we present a neural oscillator model of stimulus response theory that exhibits quantum-like behavior. We then show that without adding any additional assumptions, a quantum model constructed to fit observable pairwise correlations has no predictive power over the unknown triple moment, obtainable through the activation of multiple oscillators. We compare this with the results obtained in de Barros (2013), where a criteria of rationality gives optimal ranges for the triple moment.

  5. Blast and the Consequences on Traumatic Brain Injury-Multiscale Mechanical Modeling of Brain

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-02-17

    brain and spinal cord injury, is the largest contributor to a poor neurological outcome in survivors of brain and spinal cord trauma. Microscale...anatomical features of a 50th percentile male head, including the brain, falx and tentorium, cerebral spinal fluid (CSF), duramater, piamater, facial...discretized finite elements. (b) Sections of the head model; the right half of the head model is shown with the brain, the meningeal layers (dura

  6. The Population Consequences of Disturbance Model Application to North Atlantic Right Whales (Eubalaena glacialis)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-09-30

    a marine mammal to its population status. Developments in the model have been designed to determine if the effects of any disturbance can be traced...OBJECTIVES The objectives for this study are to: 1) develop a Hierarchical Bayesian Model to assess right whale biology, 2) assess the relationship...risk factors for both individual whales and their populations. RELATED PROJECTS The New England Aquarium’s Ocean Health and Marine Stress

  7. DEMOGRAPHIC SECURITY: THEORY, METHODOLOGY, EVALUATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mikhail V. Karmanov

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper analyzes the theoretical aspects of demographic security. Reviewed and analyzed the point of view of various scholars to the definition of demographic security. The main directions of statistical analysis of demographic security.

  8. Health effects models for nuclear power plant accident consequence analysis: Low LET radiation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Evans, J.S. (Harvard Univ., Boston, MA (USA). School of Public Health)

    1990-01-01

    This report describes dose-response models intended to be used in estimating the radiological health effects of nuclear power plant accidents. Models of early and continuing effects, cancers and thyroid nodules, and genetic effects are provided. Weibull dose-response functions are recommended for evaluating the risks of early and continuing health effects. Three potentially lethal early effects -- the hematopoietic, pulmonary, and gastrointestinal syndromes -- are considered. In addition, models are included for assessing the risks of several nonlethal early and continuing effects -- including prodromal vomiting and diarrhea, hypothyroidism and radiation thyroiditis, skin burns, reproductive effects, and pregnancy losses. Linear and linear-quadratic models are recommended for estimating cancer risks. Parameters are given for analyzing the risks of seven types of cancer in adults -- leukemia, bone, lung, breast, gastrointestinal, thyroid, and other.'' The category, other'' cancers, is intended to reflect the combined risks of multiple myeloma, lymphoma, and cancers of the bladder, kidney, brain, ovary, uterus and cervix. Models of childhood cancers due to in utero exposure are also developed. For most cancers, both incidence and mortality are addressed. The models of cancer risk are derived largely from information summarized in BEIR III -- with some adjustment to reflect more recent studies. 64 refs., 18 figs., 46 tabs.

  9. Demographic population model for American shad: will access to additional habitat upstream of dams increase population sizes?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harris, Julianne E.; Hightower, Joseph E.

    2012-01-01

    American shad Alosa sapidissima are in decline in their native range, and modeling possible management scenarios could help guide their restoration. We developed a density-dependent, deterministic, stage-based matrix model to predict the population-level results of transporting American shad to suitable spawning habitat upstream of dams on the Roanoke River, North Carolina and Virginia. We used data on sonic-tagged adult American shad and oxytetracycline-marked American shad fry both above and below dams on the Roanoke River with information from other systems to estimate a starting population size and vital rates. We modeled the adult female population over 30 years under plausible scenarios of adult transport, effective fecundity (egg production), and survival of adults (i.e., to return to spawn the next year) and juveniles (from spawned egg to age 1). We also evaluated the potential effects of increased survival for adults and juveniles. The adult female population size in the Roanoke River was estimated to be 5,224. With no transport, the model predicted a slow population increase over the next 30 years. Predicted population increases were highest when survival was improved during the first year of life. Transport was predicted to benefit the population only if high rates of effective fecundity and juvenile survival could be achieved. Currently, transported adults and young are less likely to successfully out-migrate than individuals below the dams, and the estimated adult population size is much smaller than either of two assumed values of carrying capacity for the lower river; therefore, transport is not predicted to help restore the stock under present conditions. Research on survival rates, density-dependent processes, and the impacts of structures to increase out-migration success would improve evaluation of the potential benefits of access to additional spawning habitat for American shad.

  10. Modeling chiral criticality and its consequences for heavy-ion collisions

    CERN Document Server

    Almási, Gábor András; Redlich, Krzysztof

    2016-01-01

    We explore the critical fluctuations near the chiral critical endpoint (CEP) in a chiral effective model and discuss possible signals of the CEP, recently explored experimentally in nuclear collision. Particular attention is paid to the dependence of such signals on the location of the phase boundary and the EP relative to the chemical freeze-out conditions in nuclear collisions. We argue that in effective models, standard freeze-out fits to heavy-ion data should not be used directly. Instead, the relevant quantities should be examined on lines in the phase diagram that are defined self-consistently, within the framework of the model. We discuss possible choices for such an approach.

  11. Had the planet mars not existed: Kepler's equant model and its physical consequences

    CERN Document Server

    Bracco, Christian

    2009-01-01

    We examine the equant model for the motion of planets, which has been the starting point of Kepler's investigations before he modified it because of Mars observations. We show that, up to first order in eccentricity, this model implies for each orbit a velocity which satisfies Kepler's second law and Hamilton's hodograph, and a centripetal acceleration with an inverse square dependence on the distance to the sun. If this dependence is assumed to be universal, Kepler's third law follows immediately. This elementary execice in kinematics for undergraduates emphasizes the proximity of the equant model coming from Ancient Greece with our present knowledge. It adds to its historical interest a didactical relevance concerning, in particular, the discussion of the Aristotelian or Newtonian conception of motion.

  12. Evaluating environmental and economic consequences of alternative pest management strategies: results of modeling workshops

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Richard L.; Andrews, Austin K.; Auble, Gregor T.L.; Ellison, Richard A.; Hamilton, David B.; Roelle, James E.; McNamee, Peter J.

    1983-01-01

    The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) needs a comprehensive method to evaluate the human health and environmental effects of alternative agricultural pest management strategies. This project explored the utility of Adaptive Environmental Assessment (AEA) techniques for meeting this need. The project objectives were to produce models for environmental impact analysis, improve communications, identify research needs and data requirements, and demonstrate a process for resolving conflicts. The project was structured around the construction (in an initial 2 1/2-day workshop) and examination (in a second 2 1/2-day workshop) of a simulation model of a corn agroecosystem.

  13. Review on intrauterine programming: Consequences in rodent models of mild diabetes and mild fat overfeeding are not mild.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jawerbaum, A; White, V

    2017-04-01

    An adverse intrauterine programming occurs in diabetes and obesity as the consequence of an adverse maternal environment that affects the appropriate fetoplacental development and growth. Experimental models of diabetes and fat overfeeding have provided relevant tools to address putative mechanisms of the adverse intrauterine programming. The current knowledge far extends from the original thoughts of the resulting intrauterine programming of metabolic and cardiovascular diseases to a full range of alterations that affect multiple tissues, organs, and systems that will compromise the long-life health of the offspring. This review examines the postnatal effects of rodent models of mild diabetes and fat overfeeding, identifying the multiple organ derangements in the offspring resulting from mild maternal adverse conditions. In addition, the comparison of experimental models of severe diabetes and fat overfeeding and the crucial role of the placenta are discussed, providing an update of the actual scenario of the putative mechanisms and adverse consequences of maternal metabolic derangements. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. POPULATION CONSEQUENCES OF WINTER HABITAT LOSS IN A MIGRATORY SHOREBIRD .1. ESTIMATING MODEL PARAMETERS

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    GOSSCUSTARD, JD; CLARKE, RT; BRIGGS, KB; ENS, BJ; EXO, KM; SMIT, C; BEINTEMA, AJ; CALDOW, RWG; CATT, DC; CLARK, NA; DURELL, SEALD; HARRIS, MP; HULSCHER, JB; MEININGER, PL; PICOZZI, N; PRYSJONES, R; SAFRIEL, UN; WEST, AD

    1995-01-01

    1. In order to construct a model to predict the effect of winter habitat loss on the migratory population of the European subspecies of the oystercatcher, Haematopus ostralegus ostralegus, data on the reproductive and mortality rates collected throughout Europe over the last 60 years are reviewed. W

  15. Fitting Models of the Population Consequences of Acoustic Disturbance to Data from Marine Mammal Populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-09-30

    including humans . By using sporadic observations together with an underlying process model, we can infer how individuals are interacting with their... cetaceans (e.g. gray whales – (Bradford et al. 2012)), the right whale analysis provides a framework for analyzing many different mammalian species

  16. Biases in human sequential predictions as a consequence of incorrect world models, noise and limited memory

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Narain, D.; Beers, R.J. van; Smeets, J.B.J.

    2016-01-01

    Recent studies demonstrate that biases found in human behavior can be explained by rational agents that make incorrect generative-model assumptions. While predicting a sequence of uncorrelated events, humans are biased towards overestimating its serial correlation. We demonstrate how such biases may

  17. Calculating the consequences of recovery, a European model for inhabited areas

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Charnock, T.W.; Jones, J.A.; Singer, L.N.

    2009-01-01

    The European Model for Inhabited Areas (ERMIN) was developed to allow a user to explore different recovery options following the contamination of an urban environment with radioactive material and to refine an appropriate strategy for the whole region affected. The input data include a description...

  18. Demographic changes and nationalism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vishnevskii, A G

    1995-01-01

    This article examines the different characteristics of the many peoples inhabiting what used to be the Soviet Union and communist Eastern Europe, including Yugoslavia. The differences among these nationalities, or ethnic groups, are illustrated using the example of demographic modernization, showing how different peoples have or have not passed through the demographic transition process. The author looks at ethnic differences in mortality, fertility, natural increase, and migration, as well as economic and social inequalities among ethnic groups. The prospects for inter-ethnic conflict are assessed.

  19. Good and bad consequences of altered fatty acid metabolism in heart failure: evidence from mouse models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdurrachim, Desiree; Luiken, Joost J F P; Nicolay, Klaas; Glatz, Jan F C; Prompers, Jeanine J; Nabben, Miranda

    2015-05-01

    The shift in substrate preference away from fatty acid oxidation (FAO) towards increased glucose utilization in heart failure has long been interpreted as an oxygen-sparing mechanism. Inhibition of FAO has therefore evolved as an accepted approach to treat heart failure. However, recent data indicate that increased reliance on glucose might be detrimental rather than beneficial for the failing heart. This review discusses new insights into metabolic adaptations in heart failure. A particular focus lies on data obtained from mouse models with modulations of cardiac FA metabolism at different levels of the FA metabolic pathway and how these differently affect cardiac function. Based on studies in which these mouse models were exposed to ischaemic and non-ischaemic heart failure, we discuss whether and when modulations in FA metabolism are protective against heart failure.

  20. Fitting Models of the Population Consequences of Acoustic Disturbance to Data from Marine Mammal Populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-09-30

    also traveled in June to St. Andrews , Scotland to work the other members of the PCAD modeling sub-group: John Harwood, Len Thomas, and Leslie New...In addition to colleagues at St. Andrews , we are working closely with Mark Hindell, Clive McMahon, Dan Costa, Patrick Robinson (elephant seal... Conger , A. R. Knowlton, M. K. Marx, C. K. Slay, S. D. Kraus and B. N. White (2007). "Patterns of male reproductive success in a highly promiscuous

  1. The pelagic ecosystem of the tropical Pacific Ocean: dynamic spatial modelling and biological consequences of ENSO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lehodey, Patrick

    A feature of the central equatorial Pacific is a strong divergent equatorial upwelling called the cold tongue, which is favorable to the development of a large zonal band with high levels of primary production. Contiguous to the cold tongue, is the western Pacific warm pool, which is characterized by warmer water with lower levels of primary production. At the top of the food web, the tropical tunas are a major component of the pelagic ecosystem and have their maximum biomass in the warm pool. However, during ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) events, variability is observed in both environmental factors and the spatial distribution of tuna. A Spatial Environmental Population Dynamics Model (SEPODYM) is used to assist in the analysis and interpretation of these fishery oceanographic observations. A modelling approach is described and applied to the population and fisheries of skipjack tuna, one of the top predator species with its greatest biomass in the tropical pelagic ecosystem. Environmental variables are used in the model for delineating the spawning area of skipjack, reproducing the transport of its larvae and juveniles, and simulating tuna forage. The forage production is deduced from a simple ecological transfer based on new primary production with biomass calculated as a single population. The model considers an interaction between predicted tuna density and forage density. A habitat index combining temperature preferences with forage distribution is used to constrain the movement of adult tuna. Results of the simulation allow realistic prediction of the large-scale distribution of the species. There is a remarkable out-of-phase pattern linked to ENSO between the western Pacific region and the cold tongue. This pattern is consistent with the observed movements of skipjack.

  2. Animal models of extinction-induced depression: loss of reward and its consequences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huston, Joseph P; Silva, Maria A de Souza; Komorowski, Mara; Schulz, Daniela; Topic, Bianca

    2013-11-01

    The absence or loss of rewards or reinforcers holds a major role in the development of depression in humans. In spite of the prevalence of extinction-induced depression (EID) in humans, few attempts have been made to establish animal models thereof. Here we present the concept of extinction-related depression and summarize the results of two sets of studies in our attempt to create animal models of EID, one set based on extinction after positive reinforcement in the Skinner-box, the other on extinction after negative reinforcement - escape from water. We found various behaviors emitted during the extinction trials that responded to treatment with antidepressant drugs: Accordingly, the important behavioral marker for EID during extinction of escape from the water was immobility. During extinction after positive reinforcement the important indices for extinction-induced depression are the withdrawal from the former site of reward, biting behavior and rearing up on the hind legs. Avoidance behavior and biting may model aspects of human depressive behavior, which may include withdrawal or avoidance as well as aggressive-like behaviors.

  3. Predicting the Consequences of Workload Management Strategies with Human Performance Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitchell, Diane Kuhl; Samma, Charneta

    2011-01-01

    Human performance modelers at the US Army Research Laboratory have developed an approach for establishing Soldier high workload that can be used for analyses of proposed system designs. Their technique includes three key components. To implement the approach in an experiment, the researcher would create two experimental conditions: a baseline and a design alternative. Next they would identify a scenario in which the test participants perform all their representative concurrent interactions with the system. This scenario should include any events that would trigger a different set of goals for the human operators. They would collect workload values during both the control and alternative design condition to see if the alternative increased workload and decreased performance. They have successfully implemented this approach for military vehicle. designs using the human performance modeling tool, IMPRINT. Although ARL researches use IMPRINT to implement their approach, it can be applied to any workload analysis. Researchers using other modeling and simulations tools or conducting experiments or field tests can use the same approach.

  4. Dynamic modelling of costs and health consequences of school closure during an influenza pandemic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xue Yiting

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The purpose of this article is to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of school closure during a potential influenza pandemic and to examine the trade-off between costs and health benefits for school closure involving different target groups and different closure durations. Methods We developed two models: a dynamic disease model capturing the spread of influenza and an economic model capturing the costs and benefits of school closure. Decisions were based on quality-adjusted life years gained using incremental cost-effectiveness ratios. The disease model is an age-structured SEIR compartmental model based on the population of Oslo. We studied the costs and benefits of school closure by varying the age targets (kindergarten, primary school, secondary school and closure durations (1–10 weeks, given pandemics with basic reproductive number of 1.5, 2.0 or 2.5. Results The cost-effectiveness of school closure varies depending on the target group, duration and whether indirect costs are considered. Using a case fatality rate (CFR of 0.1-0.2% and with current cost-effectiveness threshold for Norway, closing secondary school is the only cost-effective strategy, when indirect costs are included. The most cost-effective strategies would be closing secondary schools for 8 weeks if R0=1.5, 6 weeks if R0=2.0, and 4 weeks if R0= 2.5. For severe pandemics with case fatality rates of 1-2%, similar to the Spanish flu, or when indirect costs are disregarded, the optimal strategy is closing kindergarten, primary and secondary school for extended periods of time. For a pandemic with 2009 H1N1 characteristics (mild severity and low transmissibility, closing schools would not be cost-effective, regardless of the age target of school children. Conclusions School closure has moderate impact on the epidemic’s scope, but the resulting disruption to society imposes a potentially great cost in terms of lost productivity from parents’ work absenteeism.

  5. Psychological and demographic correlates of early academic skill development among American Indian and Alaska Native youth: a growth modeling study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marks, Amy Kerivan; Coll, Cynthia García

    2007-05-01

    Research regarding the development of early academic skills among American Indian and Alaska Native (AIAN) students has been very limited to date. Using a nationally representative sample of AIAN, Hispanic, African American, and White children at school entry, the authors used latent growth models to estimate the associations among poverty, low parental education, living in a rural location, as well as child attitudes toward learning and internalizing/externalizing behaviors, with mathematical and reading cognitive skill development across the 1st 4 years of school. Results indicate that AIAN children entered kindergarten with scores on both mathematical and reading cognitive tests that were comparable to their peers from other ethnic groups of color. Importantly, all children who entered kindergarten with lower cognitive skill scores also acquired skills more slowly over the next 4 years. Having a positive approach to learning at the start of kindergarten was associated with cognitive skill levels at school entry nearly 1 standard deviation above the population average. Results are discussed with reference to the shared early educational profiles observed between AIAN and other children of color. These findings provide a much-needed update regarding early academic development among AIAN children. Copyright (c) 2007 APA, all rights reserved.

  6. Demographic heterogeneity, cohort selection, and population growth

    OpenAIRE

    Bruce E. Kendall; Fox, Gordon A.; Fujiwara, Masami; Nogeire, Theresa M.

    2011-01-01

    Demographic heterogeneity—variation among individuals in survival and reproduction—is ubiquitous in natural populations. Structured population models address heterogeneity due to age, size, or major developmental stages. However, other important sources of demographic heterogeneity, such as genetic variation, spatial heterogeneity in the environment, maternal effects, and differential exposure to stressors, are often not easily measured and hence are modeled as stochasticity. Recent research ...

  7. Repeated Demographic-Structural Crises Propel the Spread of Large-scale Agrarian States Throughout the Old World

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James Bennett

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available I investigate the geographical consequences of demographic-structural dynamics using a spatially resolved agent-based model of agrarian empires in several Old World regions between 1500 BCE and 1500 CE. I estimate and bound key model parameters from two historical datasets. Although several very large-scale polities (e.g., Roman, Persian, Tang empires do not arise and certain geographical expansions occur at different times, overall the model suggests that factional civil wars, the result of repeated internal demographic-structural crises, can substantially account for the spread of large-scale agriculture throughout the Old World after the Bronze Age.

  8. Risk assessment and consequence modeling of BLEVE explosion wave phenomenon of LPG spherical tank in a refinery

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Kamaei

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Although human industrial activities are as a part of efforts to achieve greater prosperity, the risks related to these activities are also expanding. Hazard identification and risk assessment in the oil and gas industries are essential to reduce the frequency and severity of accidents and minimize damage to people and property before their occurrence. The aim of this study was to evaluate the liquefied and pressurized petroleum gas spherical tanks in a refinery and assessing the risks of Boiling Liquid Expanding Vapor Explosion (BLEVE phenomenon. Material and Method: In this study, the risks of BLEVE phenomenon were assessed, using the Bowtie method. The consequences of explosion wave phenomenon and the resulting wave quantity and its impacts on the neighboring machineries and equipment were analyzed. PHAST software version 6.54 has been used for modeling the BLEVE phenomenon. Result: In this evaluation, generally five causes and two consequences were identified for BLEVE phenomenon. In order to reduce its consequences, forty-three controlling measures were introduced to prevent the BLEVE phenomenon and the impacts of 31 control measures were identified. According to the conducted analysis, it was found that the spherical tank blast wave caused by LPG can lead to explosion of close located tanks which can create a chain of explosions. Conclusion: The results of modeling and risk assessment can be used to identify the BLEVE phenomenon causes and its effects on nearby people and equipment. Based on these results, preventive controlling measures can be implemented and also be determined by adopting proper design and layout, margin of safety for personnel, equipment and accessories.

  9. From laboratory manipulations to earth system models: predicting pelagic calcification and its consequences

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Ridgwell

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available The variation in pH-dependent calcification responses of coccolithophores paint a highly incoherent picture, particularly for the most commonly cultured "species", Emiliania huxleyi. The disparity between magnitude and even sign of the calcification change at higher CO2 (lower pH, raises challenges to quantifying future carbon cycle changes and feedbacks, by introducing significant uncertainty in parameterizations used for global models. Putting aside the possibility of methodological differences that introduce an experimental bias, we highlight two pertinent observations that can help resolve conflicting interpretations: (1 a calcification "optimum" in environmental conditions (pH has been observed in other coccolithophore species, and (2 there exists an unambiguous direction to the CO2-calcification response across mesocosm and shipboard incubations. We propose that an equivalence can be drawn between integrated ecosystem calcification as a function of pH (or other carbonate system parameter such as calcite saturation state and a widely used description of plankton growth rate vs. temperature – the "Eppley curve". This provides a conceptual framework for reconciling available experimental manipulations as well as a quasi-empirical relationship for ocean acidification impacts on carbonate production that can be incorporated into models. By analogy to the Eppley curve temperature vs. growth rate relationship, progressive ocean acidification in the future may drive a relatively smooth ecosystem response through transition in dominance from more to less heavily calcified coccolithophores in addition to species-specific calcification changes. However, regardless of the model parameterization employed, on a century time-scale, the CO2-calcification effect is a minor control of atmospheric CO2 compared to other C cycle feedbacks or to fossil fuel emissions.

  10. Measurements of accretion disc corona size in LMXB: consequences for Comptonization and LMXB models

    OpenAIRE

    M. J. Church; Balucinska-Church, M.

    2003-01-01

    We present results of measurements of the radial extent of the accretion disc corona in low mass X-ray binaries. These results prove conclusively the extended nature of the ADC, with radial extent varying from 20,000 km in the faintest sources to 700,000 km in the brightest, a substantial fraction of the accretion disc radius, typically 15%. This result rules out the Eastern model for LMXB which is extensively used, in which the Comptonizing region is a small central region. The ADC size depe...

  11. Demographic Change and Transport

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Haustein, Sonja; Siren, Anu Kristiina; Framke, Elisabeth

    This report is the literature review on demographic changes and transport of Work Package 1 of the EU project CONSOL, “CONcerns and SOLutions – Road Safety in the Ageing Societies” (contract period: 2011-2013). The report is a state-of-the art report that combines current knowledge with new findi...

  12. Examination of the Two Models of Subjective Well-Being and Correlations between Satisfaction with Life, Demographic Variables and Personality Traits

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivana Lučev

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available The goal of this study was to further the understanding of complex processes that are the base for feelings and satisfaction judgments by examining two models of subjective well-being. 1048 participants rated satisfaction with life and filled out IPIP-50 questionnaire that measures personality traits of the Big five model and demographic data questionnaire. Satisfaction with life in general was statistically significantly positively correlated with satisfaction of relationships with other people, satisfaction with health as well as with specific aspects of these domains. As was expected according to judgment model, correlations were higher for global domains than for specific aspects of satisfaction except for satisfaction with mood. Hypothesis of general positivity model and judgment model were tested in a series of hierarchical regression analyses. General life satisfaction explained variance of both global domains above and beyond satisfaction with corresponding specific domains. Contribution of global life satisfaction was significant even after effect of big five personality traits was controlled. Personality traits of the Big five model were statistically significantly associated with general life satisfaction. Correlation coefficients were -0.41 for Neuroticism, 0.30 for Extraversion, 0.14 for Agreeableness, 0.13 for Conscientiousness and 0.22 for Intellect. Age, education and being in a relationship were positively correlated with general life satisfaction. In this connection younger, better educated persons and those being in relationship were more satisfied with life in general. Women had higher levels of satisfaction for relationship with parents, while men had higher levels of satisfaction with partner, mobility, energy level, immunity and absence of pain.

  13. Modeling the Mechanical Consequences of Age-Related Trabecular Bone Loss by XFEM Simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Ruoxun; Zhang, Xianbin; Liu, Jun; Jia, Zhengbin; Zhu, Dong

    2016-01-01

    The elderly are more likely to suffer from fracture because of age-related trabecular bone loss. Different bone loss locations and patterns have different effects on bone mechanical properties. Extended finite element method (XFEM) can simulate fracture process and was suited to investigate the effects of bone loss on trabecular bone. Age-related bone loss is indicated by trabecular thinning and loss and may occur at low-strain locations or other random sites. Accordingly, several ideal normal and aged trabecular bone models were created based on different bone loss locations and patterns; then, fracture processes from crack initiation to complete failure of these models were observed by XFEM; finally, the effects of different locations and patterns on trabecular bone were compared. Results indicated that bone loss occurring at low-strain locations was more detrimental to trabecular bone than that occurring at other random sites; meanwhile, the decrease in bone strength caused by trabecular loss was higher than that caused by trabecular thinning, and the effects of vertical trabecular loss on mechanical properties were more severe than horizontal trabecular loss. This study provided a numerical method to simulate trabecular bone fracture and distinguished different effects of the possible occurrence of bone loss locations and patterns on trabecular bone. PMID:27403206

  14. Modelling the potential radiological consequences of radioactive waste dumping in the Kara Sea

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Scott, E.M.; Povinec, P.P.; Osvath, I.; Harms, I.; Baxter, M.S. [International Atomic Energy Agency, Marine Environment Laboratory, MC-98012 (Monaco)

    1998-02-01

    There has recently been growing concern over the dumping of high- and medium-level solid radioactive wastes in the Kara Sea by the former Soviet Union. The largest amounts of radioactive wastes were dumped primarily as nuclear reactors containing spent nuclear fuel. The present radionuclide inventory in dumped nuclear reactors is estimated at 4{center_dot}7 PBq. Compartmental and hydrodynamic models have been developed and applied to describe the possible dispersal of radioactive contaminants and to predict the long-term radiological impact on global, regional and local scales. The collective committed effective dose to the world population based on the marine food ingestion pathway has been calculated as 2{center_dot}2 man Sv. Modelling results suggest that only radiological effects on a local scale may be of importance. The global radiological impact of the disposals in the Kara Sea will be smaller than from other anthropogenic sources of radioactivity. (Copyright (c) 1998 Elsevier Science B.V., Amsterdam. All rights reserved.)

  15. Social and economic antecedents and consequences of adolescent aggressive personality: Predictions from the interactionist model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conger, Rand D; Martin, Monica J; Masarik, April S; Widaman, Keith F; Donnellan, M Brent

    2015-11-01

    The present study examined the development of a cohort of 279 early adolescents (52% female) from 1990 to 2005. Guided by the interactionist model of socioeconomic status and human development, we proposed that parent aggressive personality, economic circumstances, interparental conflict, and parenting characteristics would affect the development of adolescent aggressive personality traits. In turn, we hypothesized that adolescent aggressiveness would have a negative influence on adolescent functioning as an adult in terms of economic success, personality development, and close relationships 11 years later. Findings were generally supportive of the interactionist model proposition that social and economic difficulties in the family of origin intensify risk for adolescent aggressive personality (the social causation hypothesis) and that this personality trait impairs successful transition to adult roles (the social selection hypothesis) in a transactional process over time and generations. These results underscore how early development leads to child influences that appear to directly hamper the successful transition to adult roles (statistical main effects) and also amplify the negative impact of dysfunctional family systems on the transition to adulthood (statistical interaction effects). The findings suggest several possible points of intervention that might help to disrupt this negative developmental sequence of events.

  16. Measurements of accretion disc corona size in LMXB: consequences for Comptonization and LMXB models

    CERN Document Server

    Church, M J

    2004-01-01

    We present results of measurements of the radial extent of the accretion disc corona in low mass X-ray binaries. These results prove conclusively the extended nature of the ADC, with radial extent varying from 20,000 km in the faintest sources to 700,000 km in the brightest, a substantial fraction of the accretion disc radius, typically 15%. This result rules out the Eastern model for LMXB which is extensively used, in which the Comptonizing region is a small central region. The ADC size depends strongly on the 1 - 30 keV source luminosity via a simple relationship r_ADC = L^{0.88 +/- 0.16} (99% confidence) close to a simple proportionality. We also present limited evidence that the ADC size agrees with the Compton radius r_C, or maximum radius for hydrostatic equilibrium. The results are consistent with models in which an extended ADC is formed by illumination of the disc by the central source. The dependence on luminosity may reflect the known decrease of coronal temperature as the source luminosity increas...

  17. Demographic modelling approach for assessment of environmental conditions which control the population of the invasive Ctenophore Mnemiopsis leidyi in the Mediterranean Seas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shiganova, Tamara; Nival, Paul; Carlotti, Francois; Alekseenko, Elena

    2017-04-01

    At the beginning of the 1980s predatory ctenophore Mnemiopsis leidyi (M.l.) invaded into the Black Sea, successfully established and gave huge blooms. As a result biodiversity of the representative of all levels of ecosystem greatly dropped as well as fishery stocks. In the following years, M.leidyi penetrated in all the seas of the Mediterranean basin with currents and with ballast water in the Caspian Sea. According to genetic analyses performed by Ghabooli et al. (2013) the distribution of genetic diversity and pattern of genetic differentiation determined the initial colonization of the Mediterranean, Azov, Caspian seas from the Black Sea. Ten years later, another ctenophore Beroe ovata (B.o.), a predator of M.l., spontaneously arrived in the Black Sea and the ecosystem started to recover its previous biodiversity (Shiganova et al., 2014). However, in recent years M.l. blooms are more and more observed in the other coastal areas of the Mediterranean basin. Therefore, the drivers (environmental conditions) of these blooms are still questioned and should be further studied in details. The main objective is to understand the environmental conditions which favors blooms of the ctenophore Mnemiopsis leidyi and its dispersal in the Mediterranean basin, which is characterized by a strong anthropogenic impact and even in some areas the degradation of coastal ecosystems. Modeling based on long-term field and experimental data of demographical and physiological parameters of M.l. help us to understand the conditions facilitated blooms in the Mediterranean basin based on the responses of underlying processes (growth and reproduction, predation) to environmental factors. The demographic model (MBd) used for this purpose include the main developmental stages of both ctenophores, their duration in function of temperature and zooplankton concentration. It was considered that the timing of growth of both species M.l. and B.o. is crucial in their interaction. At first

  18. Analysis and modeling of a hail event consequences on a building portfolio

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicolet, Pierrick; Voumard, Jérémie; Choffet, Marc; Demierre, Jonathan; Imhof, Markus; Jaboyedoff, Michel

    2014-05-01

    North-West Switzerland has been affected by a severe Hail Storm in July 2011, which was especially intense in the Canton of Aargau. The damage cost of this event is around EUR 105 Million only for the Canton of Aargau, which corresponds to half of the mean annual consolidated damage cost of the last 20 years for the 19 Cantons (over 26) with a public insurance. The aim of this project is to benefit from the collected insurance data to better understand and estimate the risk of such event. In a first step, a simple hail event simulator, which has been developed for a previous hail episode, is modified. The geometric properties of the storm is derived from the maximum intensity radar image by means of a set of 2D Gaussians instead of using 1D Gaussians on profiles, as it was the case in the previous version. The tool is then tested on this new event in order to establish its ability to give a fast damage estimation based on the radar image and buildings value and location. The geometrical properties are used in a further step to generate random outcomes with similar characteristics, which are combined with a vulnerability curve and an event frequency to estimate the risk. The vulnerability curve comes from a 2009 event and is improved with data from this event, whereas the frequency for the Canton is estimated from insurance records. In addition to this regional risk analysis, this contribution aims at studying the relation of the buildings orientation with the damage rate. Indeed, it is expected that the orientation of the roof influences the aging of the material by controlling the frequency and amplitude of thaw-freeze cycles, changing then the vulnerability over time. This part is established by calculating the hours of sunshine, which are used to derive the material temperatures. This information is then compared with insurance claims. A last part proposes a model to study the hail impact on a building, by modeling the different equipment on each facade of the

  19. Consequences of Transfusing Blood Components in Patients With Trauma: A Conceptual Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Allison R; Frazier, Susan K

    2017-04-01

    Transfusion of blood components is often required in resuscitation of patients with major trauma. Packed red blood cells and platelets break down and undergo chemical changes during storage (known as the storage lesion) that lead to an inflammatory response once the blood components are transfused to patients. Although some evidence supports a detrimental association between transfusion and a patient's outcome, the mechanisms connecting transfusion of stored components to outcomes remain unclear. The purpose of this review is to provide critical care nurses with a conceptual model to facilitate understanding of the relationship between the storage lesion and patients' outcomes after trauma; outcomes related to trauma, hemorrhage, and blood component transfusion are grouped according to those occurring in the short-term (≤30 days) and the long-term (>30 days). Complete understanding of these clinical implications is critical for practitioners in evaluating and treating patients given transfusions after traumatic injury.

  20. Mental models at work: cognitive causes and consequences of conflict in organizations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Halevy, Nir; Cohen, Taya R; Chou, Eileen Y; Katz, James J; Panter, A T

    2014-01-01

    This research investigated the reciprocal relationship between mental models of conflict and various forms of dysfunctional social relations in organizations, including experiences of task and relationship conflicts, interpersonal hostility, workplace ostracism, and abusive supervision. We conceptualize individual differences in conflict construals as reflecting variation in people's belief structures about conflict and explore how different elements in people's associative networks-in particular, their beliefs about their best and worst strategy in conflict-relate to their personality, shape their experiences of workplace conflict, and influence others' behavioral intentions toward them. Five studies using a variety of methods (including cross-sectional surveys, a 12-week longitudinal diary study, and an experiment) show that the best strategy beliefs relate in theoretically meaningful ways to individuals' personality, shape social interactions and relationships significantly more than the worst strategy beliefs, and are updated over time as a result of individuals' ongoing experiences of conflict.

  1. Modelling shelf-ocean exchange and its biogeochemical consequences in coastal upwelling systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Muchamad, Al Azhar

    slope and deeper depths. The coupled model may potentially serve as a robust tool in investigation of the dynamics of oceanic biogeochemical cycle throughout Earth history as well as a practical method to quantified storage of carbon flux into the ocean across the continental margins under present day...... in eastern boundary upwelling systems is an example of the most productive ocean waters over continental margins where intense supply of nutrients occur from deeper ocean waters. Interesting questions arise related to the biogeochemical cycles in such upwelling systems; such as 1) how the recently observed...... active but cryptic sulfur cycle possibly is coupled to the nitrogen cycle in an oxygen-minimum-zone (OMZ), 2) what is the relation between the shelf–ocean exchange, continental shelf width and development of the observed bottom water anoxia/euxinia associated with different configurations of continental...

  2. A Mathematical Model for Energy Consequences of the Cell Phone Revolution

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    于晶; 周键聪

    2009-01-01

    In the modern tim e,cell phone reduces the cost of important inform a-tion,p lays a cruc ial role in both fac ilitate international and dom estic trades,as well as impacts the effic iency ofm ed ical service.Consider a c ity and estim ate from ava ilab le data the numberH of house-holds,w ith m m embers each,that in the past were serviced by land lines.Now,suppose that som e land lines are rep laced by cell phones.W e model theconsequences of th is change for electric ity utilization in the c ity,during the...

  3. Asymptomatic Hepadnaviral Persistence and Its Consequences in the Woodchuck Model of Occult Hepatitis B Virus Infection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mulrooney-Cousins, Patricia M; Michalak, Tomasz I

    2015-09-28

    Woodchuck hepatitis virus (WHV) is molecularly and pathogenically closely related to hepatitis B virus (HBV). Both viruses display tropism towards hepatocytes and cells of the immune system and cause similar liver pathology, where acute hepatitis can progress to chronic hepatitis and to hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Two forms of occult hepadnaviral persistence were identified in the woodchuck-WHV model: secondary occult infection (SOI) and primary occult infection (POI). SOI occurs after resolution of a serologically apparent infection with hepatitis or after subclinical serologically evident virus exposure. POI is caused by small amounts of virus and progresses without serological infection markers, but the virus genome and its replication are detectable in the immune system and with time in the liver. SOI can be accompanied by minimal hepatitis, while the hallmark of POI is normal liver morphology. Nonetheless, HCC develops in about 20% of animals with SOI or POI within 3 to 5 years. The virus persists throughout the lifespan in both SOI and POI at serum levels rarely greater than 100 copies/mL, causes hepatitis and HCC when concentrated and administered to virus-naïve woodchucks. SOI is accompanied by virus-specific T and B cell immune responses, while only virus-specific T cells are detected in POI. SOI coincides with protection against reinfection, while POI does not and hepatitis develops after challenge with liver pathogenic doses >1000 virions. Both SOI and POI are associated with virus DNA integration into the liver and the immune system genomes. Overall, SOI and POI are two distinct forms of silent hepadnaviral persistence that share common characteristics. Here, we review findings from the woodchuck model and discuss the relevant observations made in human occult HBV infection (OBI).

  4. SMART-ER: a Situation Model of Anticipated Response consequences in Tactical decisions in skill acquisition - Extended and Revised.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raab, Markus

    2014-01-01

    Situation Model of Anticipated Response consequences in tactical decisions (SMART) describes the interaction of top-down and bottom-up processes in skill acquisition and thus the dynamic interaction of sensory and motor capacities in embodied cognition. The empirically validated, extended, and revised SMART-ER can now predict when specific dynamic interactions of top-down and bottom-up processes have a beneficial or detrimental effect on performance and learning depending on situational constraints. The model is empirically supported and proposes learning strategies for when situation complexity varies or time pressure is present. Experiments from expertise research in sports illustrate that neither bottom-up nor top-down processes are bad or good per se but their effects depend on personal and situational characteristics.

  5. The macroeconomic consequences of renouncing to universal access to antiretroviral treatment for HIV in Africa: a micro-simulation model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bruno Ventelou

    Full Text Available AIM: Previous economic literature on the cost-effectiveness of antiretroviral treatment (ART programs has been mainly focused on the microeconomic consequences of alternative use of resources devoted to the fight against the HIV pandemic. We rather aim at forecasting the consequences of alternative scenarios for the macroeconomic performance of countries. METHODS: We used a micro-simulation model based on individuals aged 15-49 selected from nationally representative surveys (DHS for Cameroon, Tanzania and Swaziland to compare alternative scenarios : 1-freezing of ART programs to current levels of access, 2- universal access (scaling up to 100% coverage by 2015, with two variants defining ART eligibility according to previous or current WHO guidelines. We introduced an "artificial" ageing process by programming methods. Individuals could evolve through different health states: HIV negative, HIV positive (with different stages of the syndrome. Scenarios of ART procurement determine this dynamics. The macroeconomic impact is obtained using sample weights that take into account the resulting age-structure of the population in each scenario and modeling of the consequences on total growth of the economy. RESULTS: Increased levels of ART coverage result in decreasing HIV incidence and related mortality. Universal access to ART has a positive impact on workers' productivity; the evaluations performed for Swaziland and Cameroon show that universal access would imply net cost-savings at the scale of the society, when the full macroeconomic consequences are introduced in the calculations. In Tanzania, ART access programs imply a net cost for the economy, but 70% of costs are covered by GDP gains at the 2034 horizon, even in the extended coverage option promoted by WHO guidelines initiating ART at levels of 350 cc/mm(3 CD4 cell counts. CONCLUSION: Universal Access ART scaling-up strategies, which are more costly in the short term, remain the best economic

  6. The Macroeconomic Consequences of Renouncing to Universal Access to Antiretroviral Treatment for HIV in Africa: A Micro-Simulation Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ventelou, Bruno; Arrighi, Yves; Greener, Robert; Lamontagne, Erik; Carrieri, Patrizia; Moatti, Jean-Paul

    2012-01-01

    Aim Previous economic literature on the cost-effectiveness of antiretroviral treatment (ART) programs has been mainly focused on the microeconomic consequences of alternative use of resources devoted to the fight against the HIV pandemic. We rather aim at forecasting the consequences of alternative scenarios for the macroeconomic performance of countries. Methods We used a micro-simulation model based on individuals aged 15–49 selected from nationally representative surveys (DHS for Cameroon, Tanzania and Swaziland) to compare alternative scenarios : 1-freezing of ART programs to current levels of access, 2- universal access (scaling up to 100% coverage by 2015, with two variants defining ART eligibility according to previous or current WHO guidelines). We introduced an “artificial” ageing process by programming methods. Individuals could evolve through different health states: HIV negative, HIV positive (with different stages of the syndrome). Scenarios of ART procurement determine this dynamics. The macroeconomic impact is obtained using sample weights that take into account the resulting age-structure of the population in each scenario and modeling of the consequences on total growth of the economy. Results Increased levels of ART coverage result in decreasing HIV incidence and related mortality. Universal access to ART has a positive impact on workers' productivity; the evaluations performed for Swaziland and Cameroon show that universal access would imply net cost-savings at the scale of the society, when the full macroeconomic consequences are introduced in the calculations. In Tanzania, ART access programs imply a net cost for the economy, but 70% of costs are covered by GDP gains at the 2034 horizon, even in the extended coverage option promoted by WHO guidelines initiating ART at levels of 350 cc/mm3 CD4 cell counts. Conclusion Universal Access ART scaling-up strategies, which are more costly in the short term, remain the best economic choice in the

  7. Modeling preferential flow and its consequences on solute transfer in a strongly heterogeneous deposit

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ben Slimene, Erij; Lassabatere, Laurent; Winiarski, Thierry; Gourdon, Remy

    2016-04-01

    The understanding of the fate of pollutants in the vadose zone is a prerequisite to manage soil and groundwater quality. Water infiltrates into the soil and carries a large amount of pollutants (heavy metals, organic compounds, etc.). The quality of groundwater depends on the capability of soils to remove pollutants while water infiltrates. The capability of soils to remove pollutants depends not only on their geochemical properties and affinity with pollutants but also on the quality of the contact between the reactive particles of the soil and pollutants. In such a context, preferential flows are the worst scenario since they prevent pollutants from reaching large parts of the soil including reactive zones that could serve for pollutant removal. The negative effects of preferential flow have already been pointed out by several studies. In this paper, we investigate numerically the effect of the establishment of preferential flow in a numerical section (13.5m long and 2.5m deep) that mimics a strongly heterogeneous deposit. The modelled deposit is made of several lithofacies with contrasting hydraulic properties. The numerical study proves that this strong contrast in hydraulic properties triggers the establishment of preferential flow (capillary barriers and funneled flow). Preferential flow develops mainly for low initial water contents and low fluxes imposed at the soil surface. The impact of these flows on solute transfer is also investigated as a function of solute reactivity and affinity to soil sorption sites. Modeled results clearly show that solute transport is greatly impacted by flow heterogeneity. Funneled flows have the same impacts as water fractionation into mobile and immobile transfer with a fast transport of solutes by preferential flow and solute diffusion to zones where the flow is slower. Such a pattern greatly impacts retention and reduces the access of pollutants into large parts of the soil. Retention is thus greatly reduced at the section

  8. Stability of volcanic conduits: insights from magma ascent modelling and possible consequences on eruptive dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aravena, Alvaro; de'Michieli Vitturi, Mattia; Cioni, Raffaello; Neri, Augusto

    2017-04-01

    Geological evidences of changes in volcanic conduit geometry (i.e. erosive processes) are common in the volcanic record, as revealed by the occurrence of lithic fragments in most pyroclastic deposits. However, the controlling factors of conduit enlargement mechanisms are still partially unclear, as well as the influence of conduit geometry in the eruptive dynamics. Despite physical models have been systematically used for studying volcanic conduits, their mechanical stability has been poorly addressed. In order to study the mechanical stability of volcanic conduits during explosive eruptions, we present a 1D steady-state model which considers the main processes experimented by ascending magmas, such as crystallization, drag forces, fragmentation, outgassing and degassing; and the application of the Mogi-Coulomb collapse criterion, using a set of constitutive equations for studying typical cases of rhyolitic and trachytic explosive volcanism. From our results emerge that conduit stability is mainly controlled by magma rheology and conduit dimensions. Indeed, in order to be stable, feeding conduits of rhyolitic eruptions need larger radii respect to their trachytic counterparts, which is manifested in the higher eruption rates usually observed in rhyolitic explosive eruptions, as confirmed by a small compilation of global data. Additionally, for both magma compositions, we estimated a minimum magma flux for developing stable conduits (˜3ṡ106 kg/s for trachytic magmas and ˜8ṡ107 kg/s for rhyolitic magmas), which is consistent with the unsteady character commonly observed in low-mass flux events (e.g. sub-Plinian eruptions), which would be produced by episodic collapse events of the volcanic conduit, opposite to the mainly stationary high-mass flux events (e.g. Plinian eruptions), characterized by stable conduits. For a given magma composition, a minimum radius for reaching stable conditions can be computed, as a function of inlet overpressure and water content

  9. A model of thrombin inactivation in heparinized and nonheparinized tubes with consequences for thrombus formation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Basmadjian, D; Sefton, M V

    1986-01-01

    The role of flow and mass transport in determining procoagulant concentration at the wall of synthetic and natural cylindrical blood vessels is analyzed theoretically. The model assumes steady laminar flow and considers, in addition to the fluid dynamic parameters, three rate-determining steps: production of procoagulant (thrombin) and its inactivation at the wall, as well as inactivation in the fluid bulk. The ratio of thrombin wall concentration to production rate Cw/N emerges as a critical parameter in characterizing the behavior of the tube wall. With a wall-inactivation rate typical of heparinized materials, Cw/N = 11.1 s/cm, independent of flow (shear rate) and axial position. This is significantly less than the range of Cw/N (50-500 s/cm) for which the thrombin concentration is high enough to result in significant fibrin formation and thrombosis. Hence little fibrin formation and a high degree of thromboresistance is expected for heparinized materials. Nonheparinized materials have Cw/N values above this range, which are only weakly dependent on shear rate and diameter, suggesting that flow-induced dispersion of thrombin (or other procoagulants) has limited impact on the thrombin wall concentration. These latter results appear to refute the conventional wisdom that attributes the relative patency of large-diameter vessels and differences between venous and arterial thrombi to such flow effects. It is likely that additional factors such as flow pulsatility and wall geometry must be considered to account for these observations.

  10. Placebo Response is Driven by UCS Revaluation: Evidence, Neurophysiological Consequences and a Quantitative Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Puviani, Luca; Rama, Sidita

    2016-07-20

    Despite growing scientific interest in the placebo effect and increasing understanding of neurobiological mechanisms, theoretical modeling of the placebo response remains poorly developed. The most extensively accepted theories are expectation and conditioning, involving both conscious and unconscious information processing. However, it is not completely understood how these mechanisms can shape the placebo response. We focus here on neural processes which can account for key properties of the response to substance intake. It is shown that placebo response can be conceptualized as a reaction of a distributed neural system within the central nervous system. Such a reaction represents an integrated component of the response to open substance administration (or to substance intake) and is updated through "unconditioned stimulus (UCS) revaluation learning". The analysis leads to a theorem, which proves the existence of two distinct quantities coded within the brain, these are the expected or prediction outcome and the reactive response. We show that the reactive response is updated automatically by implicit revaluation learning, while the expected outcome can also be modulated through conscious information processing. Conceptualizing the response to substance intake in terms of UCS revaluation learning leads to the theoretical formulation of a potential neuropharmacological treatment for increasing unlimitedly the effectiveness of a given drug.

  11. The consequences of dioecy for seed dispersal: modeling the seed-shadow handicap.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heilbuth, J C; Ilves, K L; Otto, S P

    2001-05-01

    Recent evidence has suggested that clades of dioecious angiosperms have fewer extant species on average than those of cosexual (hermaphroditic and monoecious) relatives. Reasons for the decrease in speciation rates and/or increase in extinction rates are only beginning to be investigated. One possibility is that dioecious species suffer a competitive disadvantage with cosexuals because only half of the individuals in a dioecious population are seed bearing. When only females produce seed, offspring will be more spatially clumped and will experience more local resource competition than when every individual produces seed. We examine two spatially explicit models to determine the effect of a reduction in seed dispersers on the invasibility and persistence of dioecious populations. Even though dioecious females were allowed to produce twice as many seeds as cosexuals, our results show that a reduction in the number of seed dispersers causes a decrease in the ability of dioecious progeny to find uninhabited sites, thus reducing persistence times. These results suggest that the maintenance of dioecy in the presence of hermaphroditic competitors requires a substantial increase in relative fitness and/or a large dispersal advantage of dioecious seeds.

  12. The Meaning and Consequences of Star Formation Criteria in Galaxy Models with Resolved Stellar Feedback

    CERN Document Server

    Hopkins, Philip F; Murray, Norman

    2013-01-01

    We consider the effects of different star formation criteria on galactic scales, in high-resolution simulations with explicitly resolved GMCs and stellar feedback. We compare: (1) a self-gravity criterion (based on the local virial parameter and the assumption that self-gravitating gas collapses to high density in a free-fall time), (2) a fixed density threshold, (3) a molecular-gas law, (4) a temperature threshold, (5) a Jeans-instability requirement, (6) a criteria that cooling times be shorter than dynamical times, and (7) a convergent-flow criterion. We consider these both MW-like and high-density (starburst) galaxies. With feedback present, all models produce identical integrated star formation rates (SFRs), in agreement with the Kennicutt relation. Without feedback all produce orders-of-magnitude excessive SFRs. This is totally dependent on feedback and independent of the SF law. However, the spatial and density distribution of SF depend strongly on the SF criteria. Because cooling rates are generally f...

  13. Health effects model for nuclear power plant accident consequence analysis. Part I. Introduction, integration, and summary. Part II. Scientific basis for health effects models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Evans, J.S.; Moeller, D.W.; Cooper, D.W.

    1985-07-01

    Analysis of the radiological health effects of nuclear power plant accidents requires models for predicting early health effects, cancers and benign thyroid nodules, and genetic effects. Since the publication of the Reactor Safety Study, additional information on radiological health effects has become available. This report summarizes the efforts of a program designed to provide revised health effects models for nuclear power plant accident consequence modeling. The new models for early effects address four causes of mortality and nine categories of morbidity. The models for early effects are based upon two parameter Weibull functions. They permit evaluation of the influence of dose protraction and address the issue of variation in radiosensitivity among the population. The piecewise-linear dose-response models used in the Reactor Safety Study to predict cancers and thyroid nodules have been replaced by linear and linear-quadratic models. The new models reflect the most recently reported results of the follow-up of the survivors of the bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki and permit analysis of both morbidity and mortality. The new models for genetic effects allow prediction of genetic risks in each of the first five generations after an accident and include information on the relative severity of various classes of genetic effects. The uncertainty in modeloling radiological health risks is addressed by providing central, upper, and lower estimates of risks. An approach is outlined for summarizing the health consequences of nuclear power plant accidents. 298 refs., 9 figs., 49 tabs.

  14. A review of {sup 137}Cs transfer to fungi and consequences for modelling environmental transfer

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gillett, A.G. E-mail: andy.gillett@nottingham.ac.uk; Crout, N.M.J

    2000-03-01

    A review of the published literature describing {sup 137}Cs transfer to fungi was carried out, summarising the collated data to determine factors controlling transfer and identify an appropriate modelling approach to predict future contamination. {sup 137}Cs transfer ratios (TR) are derived for fungi species collected within Europe and the CIS. Considerable variability in TRs is demonstrated, with TRs varying between <0.001 and >10 m{sup 2} kg{sup -1} across all species and over three orders of magnitude for individual species (e.g. Boletus badius). Generally, meta-information (such as habitat and soil attributes) is poorly reported in the literature so that classification of the TR is limited to the effect of nutritional type (P<0.025) in the order mycorrhizal>saprophytic{approx}parasitic. Analysis of the literature data set (a heterogeneous source) suggests that there is no statistical evidence to indicate a decrease in TRs for 10 years after the Chernobyl accident. Spatial analysis of a data set for Belgium indicates variability in {sup 137}Cs transfer within a sampling location, such that fruitbodies collected over a scale of approximately 5 km would show activities as variable as those collected over a much larger scale ({approx} or>50 km). Therefore, it is proposed that the collated data sets for individual species can be used to derive 'best estimates' for the parameters describing the distribution of TRs. These can then be used to estimate an 'effective' TR, which, when combined with local soil deposition level and frequency and effect of culinary practices, can give an estimate of the activity of fungi consumed by the general population.

  15. Health effects models for nuclear power plant accident consequence analysis. Part 1, Introduction, integration, and summary: Revision 2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Evans, J.S. [Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, MA (United States); Abrahmson, S. [Wisconsin Univ., Madison, WI (United States); Bender, M.A. [Brookhaven National Lab., Upton, NY (United States); Boecker, B.B.; Scott, B.R. [Inhalation Toxicology Research Inst., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Gilbert, E.S. [Battelle Pacific Northwest Lab., Richland, WA (United States)

    1993-10-01

    This report is a revision of NUREG/CR-4214, Rev. 1, Part 1 (1990), Health Effects Models for Nuclear Power Plant Accident Consequence Analysis. This revision has been made to incorporate changes to the Health Effects Models recommended in two addenda to the NUREG/CR-4214, Rev. 1, Part 11, 1989 report. The first of these addenda provided recommended changes to the health effects models for low-LET radiations based on recent reports from UNSCEAR, ICRP and NAS/NRC (BEIR V). The second addendum presented changes needed to incorporate alpha-emitting radionuclides into the accident exposure source term. As in the earlier version of this report, models are provided for early and continuing effects, cancers and thyroid nodules, and genetic effects. Weibull dose-response functions are recommended for evaluating the risks of early and continuing health effects. Three potentially lethal early effects -- the hematopoietic, pulmonary, and gastrointestinal syndromes are considered. Linear and linear-quadratic models are recommended for estimating the risks of seven types of cancer in adults - leukemia, bone, lung, breast, gastrointestinal, thyroid, and ``other``. For most cancers, both incidence and mortality are addressed. Five classes of genetic diseases -- dominant, x-linked, aneuploidy, unbalanced translocations, and multifactorial diseases are also considered. Data are provided that should enable analysts to consider the timing and severity of each type of health risk.

  16. SOME CONSIDERATIONS ON THE DEMOGRAPHIC STRUCTURE OF MIGRANTS FROM BOTOSANI COUNTY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petru BUNDUC

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available This study aims to analyse the structural particularities of migrants in Botosani County, concerning the presentation model of the structure by age and sex. This is perhaps one of the most important elements in finding explanations and motivations of population leaving from county. However, demographic changes of this structure clearly present visible consequences such as increasing proportion of elderly people and reducing youth people, but also by reducing the active workforce.

  17. Collapsing Factors in Multitrait-Multimethod Models: Examining Consequences of a Mismatch Between Measurement Design and Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christian eGeiser

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Models of confirmatory factor analysis (CFA are frequently applied to examine the convergent validity of scores obtained from multiple raters or methods in so-called multitrait-multimethod (MTMM investigations. Many applications of CFA-MTMM and similarly structured models result in solutions in which at least one method (or specific factor shows non-significant loading or variance estimates. Eid et al. (2008 distinguished between MTMM measurement designs with interchangeable (randomly selected versus structurally different (fixed methods and showed that each type of measurement design implies specific CFA-MTMM measurement models. In the current study, we hypothesized that some of the problems that are commonly seen in applications of CFA-MTMM models may be due to a mismatch between the underlying measurement design and fitted models. Using simulations, we found that models with M method factors (where M is the total number of methods and unconstrained loadings led to a higher proportion of solutions in which at least one method factor became empirically unstable when these models were fit to data generated from structurally different methods. The simulations also revealed that commonly used model goodness-of-fit criteria frequently failed to identify incorrectly specified CFA-MTMM models. We discuss implications of these findings for other complex CFA models in which similar issues occur, including nested (bifactor and latent state-trait models.

  18. Collapsing factors in multitrait-multimethod models: examining consequences of a mismatch between measurement design and model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geiser, Christian; Bishop, Jacob; Lockhart, Ginger

    2015-01-01

    Models of confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) are frequently applied to examine the convergent validity of scores obtained from multiple raters or methods in so-called multitrait-multimethod (MTMM) investigations. Many applications of CFA-MTMM and similarly structured models result in solutions in which at least one method (or specific) factor shows non-significant loading or variance estimates. Eid et al. (2008) distinguished between MTMM measurement designs with interchangeable (randomly selected) vs. structurally different (fixed) methods and showed that each type of measurement design implies specific CFA-MTMM measurement models. In the current study, we hypothesized that some of the problems that are commonly seen in applications of CFA-MTMM models may be due to a mismatch between the underlying measurement design and fitted models. Using simulations, we found that models with M method factors (where M is the total number of methods) and unconstrained loadings led to a higher proportion of solutions in which at least one method factor became empirically unstable when these models were fit to data generated from structurally different methods. The simulations also revealed that commonly used model goodness-of-fit criteria frequently failed to identify incorrectly specified CFA-MTMM models. We discuss implications of these findings for other complex CFA models in which similar issues occur, including nested (bifactor) and latent state-trait models. PMID:26283977

  19. A Development of Domestic Food Chain Model Data for Chronic Effect Estimation of Off-site Consequence Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Han, Seok-Jung; KEUM, Dong-Kwon; Jang, Seung-Cheol [KAERI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-05-15

    The FCM includes complex transport phenomena of radiation materials on a biokinetic system of contaminated environments. An estimation of chronic health effects is a key part of the level 3 PSA (Probabilistic Safety Assessment), which depends on the FCM estimation from contaminated foods ingestion. A cultural ingestion habit of a local region and agricultural productions are different to the general features over worldwide scale or case by case. This is a reason to develop a domestic FCM data for the level 3 PSA. However, a generation of the specific FCM data is a complex process and under a large degree of uncertainty due to inherent biokinetic models. As a preliminary study, the present study focuses on an infrastructure development to generation of a specific FCM data. During this process, the features of FCM data to generate a domestic FCM data were investigated. Based on the insights obtained from this process, a specific domestic FCM data was developed. The present study was developed a domestic FCM data to estimate the chronic health effects of off-site consequence analysis. From this study, an insight was obtained, that a domestic FCM data is roughly 20 times higher than the MACCS2 defaults data. Based on this observation, it is clear that the specific chronic health effects of a domestic plant site should be considered in the off-site consequence analysis.

  20. Review of models used for determining consequences of UF{sub 6} release: Model evaluation report. Volume 2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nair, S.K.; Chambers, D.B.; Park, S.H.; Radonjic, Z.R.; Coutts, P.T.; Lewis, C.J.; Hammonds, J.S.; Hoffman, F.O. [Senes Oak Ridge, Inc., TN (United States). Center for Risk Analysis

    1997-11-01

    Three uranium hexafluoride-(UF{sub 6}-) specific models--HGSYSTEM/UF{sub 6}, Science Application International Corporation, and RTM-96; three dense-gas models--DEGADIS, SLAB, and the Chlorine Institute methodology; and one toxic chemical model--AFTOX--are evaluated on their capabilities to simulate the chemical reactions, thermodynamics, and atmospheric dispersion of UF{sub 6} released from accidents at nuclear fuel-cycle facilities, to support Integrated Safety Analysis, Emergency Response Planning, and Post-Accident Analysis. These models are also evaluated for user-friendliness and for quality assurance and quality control features, to ensure the validity and credibility of the results. Model performance evaluations are conducted for the three UF{sub 6}-specific models, using field data on releases of UF{sub 6} and other heavy gases. Predictions from the HGSYSTEM/UF{sub 6} and SAIC models are within an order of magnitude of the field data, but the SAIC model overpredicts beyond an order of magnitude for a few UF{sub 6}-specific data points. The RTM-96 model provides overpredictions within a factor of 3 for all data points beyond 400 m from the source. For one data set, however, the RTM-96 model severely underpredicts the observations within 200 m of the source. Outputs of the models are most sensitive to the meteorological parameters at large distances from the source and to certain source-specific and meteorological parameters at distances close to the source. Specific recommendations are being made to improve the applicability and usefulness of the three models and to choose a specific model to support the intended analyses. Guidance is also provided on the choice of input parameters for initial dilution, building wake effects, and distance to completion of UF{sub 6} reaction with water.

  1. Drought prediction using a wavelet based approach to model the temporal consequences of different types of droughts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maity, Rajib; Suman, Mayank; Verma, Nitesh Kumar

    2016-08-01

    Droughts are expected to propagate from one type to another - meteorological to agricultural to hydrological to socio-economic. However, they do not possess a universal, straightforward temporal dependence. Rather, assessment of one type of drought (successor) from another (predecessor) is a complex problem depending on the basin's physiographic and climatic characteristics, such as, spatial extent, topography, land use, land cover and climate regime. In this paper, a wavelet decomposition based approach is proposed to model the temporal dependence between different types of droughts. The idea behind is to separate the rapidly and slowly moving components of drought indices. It is shown that the temporal dependence of predecessor (say meteorological drought) on the successor (say hydrological drought) can be better captured at its constituting components level. Such components are obtained through wavelet decomposition retaining its temporal correspondence. Thus, in the proposed approach, predictand drought index is predicted using the decomposed components of predecessor drought. Several alternative models are investigated to arrive at the best possible model structure for predicting different types of drought. The proposed approach is found to be very useful for foreseeing the agricultural or hydrological droughts knowing the meteorological drought status, offering the scope for better management of drought consequences. The mathematical framework of the proposed approach is general in nature and can be applied to different basins. However, the limitation is the requirement of region/catchment specific calibration of some parameters before using the proposed model, which is not very difficult and uncommon though.

  2. Consequences of increasing bioenergy demand on wood and forests: An application of the Global Forest Products Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buongiorno, J.; Raunikar, R.; Zhu, S.

    2011-01-01

    The Global Forest Products Model (GFPM) was applied to project the consequences for the global forest sector of doubling the rate of growth of bioenergy demand relative to a base scenario, other drivers being maintained constant. The results showed that this would lead to the convergence of the price of fuelwood and industrial roundwood, raising the price of industrial roundwood by nearly 30% in 2030. The price of sawnwood and panels would be 15% higher. The price of paper would be 3% higher. Concurrently, the demand for all manufactured wood products would be lower in all countries, but the production would rise in countries with competitive advantage. The global value added in wood processing industries would be 1% lower in 2030. The forest stock would be 2% lower for the world and 4% lower for Asia. These effects varied substantially by country. ?? 2011 Department of Forest Economics, SLU Ume??, Sweden.

  3. Cause of death during 2009–2012, using a probabilistic model (InterVA-4: an experience from Ballabgarh Health and Demographic Surveillance System in India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sanjay K. Rai

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Objectives: The present study aimed to estimate the age and cause-specific mortality in Ballabgarh Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS site for the years 2009 to 2012, using a probabilistic model (InterVA-4. Methods: All Deaths in Ballabgarh HDSS from January 1, 2009, to December 31, 2012, were included in the study. InterVA-4 model (version 4.02 was used for assigning cause of death (COD. Data from the verbal autopsy (VA tool were extracted and processed with the InterVA-4 model. Cause-specific mortality rate (CSMR per 1,000 person-years was calculated. Results: A total of 2,459 deaths occurred in the HDSS during the year 2009 to 2012. Among them, 2,174 (88.4% valid VA interviews were conducted. Crude death rate ranged from 7.1 (2009 to 6.4 (2012 per 1,000 population. The CSMR per 1,000 person-years over the years (2009–2012 for non-communicable diseases, communicable diseases, trauma, neoplasm, and maternal and neonatal diseases were 1.78, 1.68, 0.68, 0.49, and 0.48, respectively. The most common causes of death among children, adults, and the elderly were infectious diseases, trauma, and non-communicable diseases, respectively. Conclusions: Overall, non-communicable diseases constituted the largest proportion of mortality, whereas trauma was the most common COD among adults at Ballabgarh HDSS. Policy-makers ought to focus on prevention of premature CODs, especially prevention of infectious diseases in children, and intentional self-harm and road traffic accidents in the adult population.

  4. Choice & Consequence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Khan, Azam

    between cause and effect in complex systems complicates decision making. To address this issue, we examine the central role that data-driven decision making could play in critical domains such as sustainability or medical treatment. We developed systems for exploratory data analysis and data visualization...... of data analysis and instructional interface design, to both simulation systems and decision support interfaces. We hope that projects such as these will help people to understand the link between their choices and the consequences of their decisions....

  5. Choice & Consequence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Khan, Azam

    between cause and effect in complex systems complicates decision making. To address this issue, we examine the central role that data-driven decision making could play in critical domains such as sustainability or medical treatment. We developed systems for exploratory data analysis and data visualization...... of data analysis and instructional interface design, to both simulation systems and decision support interfaces. We hope that projects such as these will help people to understand the link between their choices and the consequences of their decisions....

  6. The demographic effects of technological change and capitalist transformation--a re-interpretation of the demographic transition theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maitra, P

    1992-06-01

    The interrelationship between demographic transition, capitalist transformation, and technological change in the 2 contrasting cases of the UK and India is explored. In the UK, technological change evolved from the extensive to the intensive phase, while technological change was introduced in India from the UK and other developed economies. The Demographic Transition Model is re-examined for these cases while the extensive and intensive phases of technological change with their effects on labor demand and consequent effects on fertility rate are analyzed. Changes in economic structure, demography, and factor pricing systems are presented as indicators of capitalist transformation of an economy. At the onset of capitalist transformation, population growth tends to decline as a result of increasing demand for labor in productive activities. Accordingly, the pattern of population growth depends upon the growth of demand for labor in productive activities which in turn depends upon the nature of the source of technological change; Demographic Transition theory ignores this point. Debate remains over whether imported technology, once reaching maturity, may effect capitalist transformation of economies toward true integrated development.

  7. Thermomechanical consequences of Cretaceous continent-continent collision in the eastern Alps (Austria): Insights from two-dimensional modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Willingshofer, Ernst; van Wees, J. D.; Cloetingh, S. A. P. L.; Neubauer, F.

    1999-10-01

    We use two-dimensional numerical modeling techniques to investigate the thermomechanical consequences of closure of the Meliata-Hallstatt ocean and consequent Cretaceous continent-continent collision in the eastern Alps (Austria). In the modeling a lower plate position of the Austro-Alpine (AA) continental block is adopted during collision with the Upper Juvavic-Silice block. The thermal structure of the lithosphere was calculated for major AA tectonic units (Upper, Middle, and Lower Austro-Alpine) by integration of the transient heat flow equation along an approximately NW-SE cross section east of the Tauern Window. Indications of the rheological evolution of the AA were determined by calculating strength profiles at key stages of the Cretaceous orogeny, making use of the thermal modeling predictions combined with rock mechanics data. Cooling in the upper plate and lower greenschist facies metamorphism within footwall parts of the lower Upper Austro-Alpine (UA) plate, related to SE directed underthrusting of the UA beneath the Upper Juvavic-Silice block at circa 100 Ma, were predicted by the numerical model. The observed pressure-temperature path for deeply buried Middle Austro-Alpine (MA) upper crustal units and their subsequent isothermal exhumation are best reproduced assuming a pressure peak at 95 Ma and exhumation rates ranging between 4 and 7.5 mm yr-1. From the modeling results, we deduce that the temperature evolution during eclogite exhumation is primarily dependent on rates of tectonic movements and largely independent of the mode of exhumation (thrusting versus erosion). Furthermore, very rapid postmetamorphic exhumation of southern Lower Austro-Alpine (LA) units is predicted in order to account for subsequent cooling. This is constrained by 40Ar/39Ar data. The cooling paths of MA and LA rocks appear to be primarily controlled by their near-surface positions at the end of the Cretaceous rather than by other processes such as concurrent underthrusting

  8. Incorporating environmental attitudes in discrete choice models: an exploration of the utility of the awareness of consequences scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoyos, David; Mariel, Petr; Hess, Stephane

    2015-02-01

    Environmental economists are increasingly interested in better understanding how people cognitively organise their beliefs and attitudes towards environmental change in order to identify key motives and barriers that stimulate or prevent action. In this paper, we explore the utility of a commonly used psychometric scale, the awareness of consequences (AC) scale, in order to better understand stated choices. The main contribution of the paper is that it provides a novel approach to incorporate attitudinal information into discrete choice models for environmental valuation: firstly, environmental attitudes are incorporated using a reinterpretation of the classical AC scale recently proposed by Ryan and Spash (2012); and, secondly, attitudinal data is incorporated as latent variables under a hybrid choice modelling framework. This novel approach is applied to data from a survey conducted in the Basque Country (Spain) in 2008 aimed at valuing land-use policies in a Natura 2000 Network site. The results are relevant to policy-making because choice models that are able to accommodate underlying environmental attitudes may help in designing more effective environmental policies. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. Impacts of different SNLS3 light-curve fitters on cosmological consequences of interacting dark energy models

    CERN Document Server

    Hu, Yazhou; Li, Nan; Wang, Shuang

    2015-01-01

    Aims: We explore the cosmological consequences of interacting dark energy (IDE) models using the Supernova Legacy Survey three-year (SNLS3) data sets. In particular, we focus on the impacts of different SNLS3 light-curve fitters (LCF) (corresponding to the "SALT2", the "SiFTO", and the "Combined" supernova sample). Methods: Firstly, making use of the three SNLS3 data sets, as well as the observational data from the cosmic microwave background (CMB), the galaxy clustering (GC) and the direct measurement of Hubble constant $H_0$, we constrain the parameter spaces of three IDE models. Then, we plot the cosmic evolutions of Hubble diagram $H(z)$, deceleration diagram $q(z)$ and statefinder hierarchy $\\{S^{(1)}_3, S^{(1)}_4\\}$, and check whether or not these dark energy (DE) diagnosis can distinguish the differences among the results of different LCF. At last, we perform high-redshift cosmic age test using three old high redshift objects (OHRO), and explore the fate of the Universe. Results: For all the IDE models...

  10. Demographic Risks of the Pension Reform in the Russian Federation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arkady Konstantinovich Solovyev

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of the study is to analyze the impact of the demographic crisis in the country’s fiscal system. In the article, the pension system for the first time is considered as a multifactorial model, which during the different historical periods corrects the degree of its dependence on the interdependent complex of macroeconomic and demographic factors. The economically sound and socially correct accounting of the interference of retirement age and the specified development factors of pension system requires a fundamental change in the methodological approaches to the problem of raising the retirement age by using the actuarial methods of forecasting. The actuarial analysis of the problem of retirement age shows that the perception of the linear dependence on demographic parameters of the age when the national pension is awarded cannot be considered as a tool for regulating the efficiency of the pension system. For the science-based solution to the problem of rising the retirement age, along with the dynamics of demographic parameters, it is necessary to take into account the whole range of macroeconomic conditions for the state development as well as the long-term socio-economic consequences. Another significant result of the study are the specific parameters of the actuarial assessments of the impact of demographic and macroeconomic conditions of increasing the retirement age in Russia, conducted using the state statistical data. The practical proposals to mitigate the negative economic consequences are formulated. The key conclusion reached is that the raising of the retirement age should be aimed exclusively at the economic stimulation of the formation of the pension rights of the insured in the long term, rather than to the short-term savings of the state budget. The methodological approaches grounded in the work, and the quantitative results of the actuarial calculations may be applied in the shaping the public pension policy when

  11. Application of the UK foresight obesity model in Ireland: the health and economic consequences of projected obesity trends in Ireland.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laura Keaver

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Given the scale of the current obesity epidemic and associated health consequences there has been increasing concern about the economic burden placed on society in terms of direct healthcare costs and indirect societal costs. In the Republic of Ireland these costs were estimated at €1.13 billion for 2009. The total direct healthcare costs for six major obesity related conditions (coronary heart disease & stroke, cancer, hypertension, type 2 diabetes and knee osteoarthritis in the same year were estimated at €2.55 billion. The aim of this research is to project disease burden and direct healthcare costs for these conditions in Ireland to 2030 using the established model developed by the Health Forum (UK for the Foresight: Tackling Obesities project. METHODOLOGY: Routine data sources were used to derive incidence, prevalence, mortality and survival for six conditions as inputs for the model. The model utilises a two stage modelling process to predict future BMI rates, disease prevalence and costs. Stage 1 employs a non-linear multivariate regression model to project BMI trends; stage 2 employs a microsimulation approach to produce longitudinal projections and test the impact of interventions upon future incidence of obesity-related disease. RESULTS: Overweight and obesity are projected to reach levels of 89% and 85% in males and females respectively by 2030. This will result in an increase in the obesity related prevalence of CHD & stroke by 97%, cancers by 61% and type 2 diabetes by 21%. The direct healthcare costs associated with these increases will amount to €5.4 billion by 2030. A 5% reduction in population BMI levels by 2030 is projected to result in €495 million less being spent in obesity-related direct healthcare costs over twenty years. DISCUSSION: These findings have significant implications for policy, highlighting the need for effective strategies to prevent this avoidable health and economic burden.

  12. Building demographic literacy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crews, K

    1993-01-01

    Students should get in the habit of seeking out the most current projections, estimates, or rates available. Since demographic measures change over time, publications based on the UN's world population projections from 1980 or 1990 may need to be supplemented using the UN's most current, 1992, projections. A 1989 Census Bureau report on the African American Population will not contain data from the 1990 Census or the 1992 Current Population Survey, conducted by the Census Bureau. Some groups collect data with advocacy in mind, as shown by the range of estimates of participants at the 1993 National March on Washington for Lesbian, Gay and Bi Equal Rights and Liberation. The organizers estimated that 1 million people participated; the US Park Police estimated 300,000; and the Washington Blade, a gay newspaper, reported 750,000. A seemingly innocuous choice of phrasing can change the meaning of demographic data. One commonly misreported concept is population doubling time which is not a prediction, but rather a concept designed to accent how fast a population is growing at the present time. At current rates, the population of India would double in size in 34 years, but it is more likely that growth rates will begin to slow down somewhat during that time. Older students may be encouraged to examine the assumptions behind population projections. The UN's long-range projection that world population will grow to 10 billion by 2050 is based on certain assumption about fertility and mortality during the period. With regard to the fastest growing US minority, Hispanics added the largest number of people to the US population during the 1980s, but Asians had the largest percent increase. The time to initiate demographic literacy is in the early grades of school.

  13. Model review and evaluation for application in DOE safety basis documentation of chemical accidents - modeling guidance for atmospheric dispersion and consequence assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lazaro, M. A. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Woodarad, K. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Hanna, S. R. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Hesse, D. J. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Huang, J. -C. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Lewis, J. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Mazzola, C. A. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)

    1997-09-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), through its Defense Programs (DP), Office of Engineering and Operations Suppon, established the Accident Phenomenology and Consequence (AP AC) Methodology Evaluation Program to identify and evaluate methodologies and computer codes to support accident phenomenological and consequence calculations for both radiological and nonradiological materials at DOE facilities and to identify development needs. The program is also intended to define and recommend "best or good engineering/safety analysis practices" to be followed in preparing ''design or beyond design basis" assessments to be included in DOE nuclear and nonnuclear facility safety documents. The AP AC effort is intended to provide scientifically sound and more consistent analytical approaches, by identifying model selection procedures and application methodologies, in order to enhance safety analysis activities throughout the DOE complex.

  14. Early hippocampal oxidative stress is a direct consequence of seizures in the rapid electrical amygdala kindling model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sashindranath, Maithili; McLean, Karen J; Trounce, Ian A; Cotton, Richard G H; Cook, Mark J

    2010-08-01

    Epilepsy is characterised by recurrent seizures, which are manifestations of aberrant cortical neuronal firing. It is unclear whether oxidative stress is a cause or consequence of seizure-related hippocampal neuronal loss or whether it occurs concomitantly with the initiation of cell death pathways. We utilised the rapid electrical amygdala kindling (REAK) model which does not induce cell death to examine early seizure-induced oxidative stress in wildtype and superoxide dismutase 2 (Sod2) +/- mice, which lack 50% of Sod2 activity and are therefore known to be more susceptible to mitochondrial oxidative stress. A significant increase in lipid peroxidation and superoxide production was noted in the hippocampi of wildtype mice and a more delayed response observed in Sod2 +/- mice at early time-points post-seizures, but protein carbonylation levels appeared unchanged. A 10-fold increase in superoxide production was seen in the Sod2 +/- CA2 neurons, indicating that Sod2 plays an important role in protecting the CA2 region of the hippocampus from seizure-induced free radical damage. Early hippocampal cell death was undetectable in wildtype or Sod2 +/- mice post-seizures. We were able to demonstrate that hippocampal oxidative stress occurred as a direct consequence of seizures rather than downstream of activation of cell death pathways. We were also able to show that this increase in oxidative stress was not sufficient to cause cell death within the time window investigated. Our data indicates that a possible upregulation of endogenous antioxidant activity might exist within selective hippocampal sectors in the Sod2 +/- mice that are as yet unknown.

  15. Acute single dose of ketamine relieves mechanical allodynia and consequent depression-like behaviors in a rat model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Guang-Fen; Wang, Jing; Han, Jin-Feng; Guo, Jie; Xie, Ze-Min; Pan, Wei; Yang, Jian-Jun; Sun, Kang-Jian

    2016-09-19

    Both chronic pain and depression are debilitating diseases, which often coexist in clinic. However, current analgesics and antidepressants exhibit limited efficacy for this comorbidity. The present study aimed to investigate the effect of ketamine on the comorbidity of inflammatory pain and consequent depression-like behaviors in a rat model established by intraplantar administration of complete Freunds adjuvant (CFA). The mechanical withdrawal threshold, thermal withdrawal latency, open field test, forced swimming test, and sucrose preference test were evaluated after the CFA injection and ketamine treatment. The hippocampus was harvested to determine the levels of interleukin (IL)-6, IL-1β, indoleamine 2,3-dioxygenase (IDO), kynurenine (KYN), 5-hydroxytryptamine (5-HT), and tryptophan (TRP). The inflammatory pain-induced depression-like behaviors presented on 7days and lasted to at least 14days after the CFA injection. Single dose of ketamine at 20mg/kg relieved both the mechanical allodynia and the associated depression-like behaviors as demonstrated by the attenuated mechanical withdrawal threshold, reduced immobility time in the forced swim test, and increased sucrose preference after ketamine treatment. The total distance had no significant change after the CFA injection or ketamine treatment in the open field test. Simultaneously, ketamine reduced the levels of IL-6, IL-1β, IDO, and KYN/TRP ratio and increased the 5-HT/TRP ratio in the hippocampus. In conclusion, acute single dose of ketamine can rapidly attenuate mechanical allodynia and consequent depression-like behaviors and down-regulate hippocampal proinflammatory responses and IDO/KYN signal pathway in rats. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Shifting towards a model of mGluR5 dysregulation in schizophrenia: Consequences for future schizophrenia treatment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matosin, Natalie; Fernandez-Enright, Francesca; Lum, Jeremy S; Newell, Kelly A

    2017-03-15

    Metabotropic glutamate receptor subtype 5 (mGluR5), encoded by the GRM5 gene, represents a compelling novel drug target for the treatment of schizophrenia. mGluR5 is a postsynaptic G-protein coupled glutamate receptor strongly linked with several critical cellular processes that are reported to be disrupted in schizophrenia. Accordingly, mGluR5 positive allosteric modulators show encouraging therapeutic potential in preclinical schizophrenia models, particularly for the treatment of cognitive dysfunctions against which currently available therapeutics are largely ineffective. More work is required to support the progression of mGluR5-targeting drugs into the clinic for schizophrenia treatment, although some obstacles may be overcome by comprehensively understanding how mGluR5 itself is involved in the neurobiology of the disorder. Several processes that are necessary for the regulation of mGluR5 activity have been identified, but not examined, in the context of schizophrenia. These processes include protein-protein interactions, dimerisation, subcellular trafficking, the impact of genetic variability or mutations on protein function, as well as epigenetic, post-transcriptional and post-translational processes. It is essential to understand these aspects of mGluR5 to determine whether they are affected in schizophrenia pathology, and to assess the consequences of mGluR5 dysfunction for the future use of mGluR5-based drugs. Here, we summarise the known processes that regulate mGluR5 and those that have already been studied in schizophrenia, and discuss the consequences of this dysregulation for current mGluR5 pharmacological strategies. This article is part of the Special Issue entitled 'Metabotropic Glutamate Receptors, 5 years on'. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. EJSCREEN Version 1, Demographic Data

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — This map service displays demographic data used in EJSCREEN. All demographic data were derived from American Community Survey 2006-2010 estimates. EJSCREEN is an...

  18. Evaluation of the anatomical and functional consequences of repetitive mild cervical contusion using a model of spinal concussion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Ying; Bouyer, Julien; Haas, Christopher; Fischer, Itzhak

    2015-09-01

    Spinal cord concussion is characterized by a transient loss of motor and sensory function that generally resolves without permanent deficits. Spinal cord concussions usually occur during vehicular accidents, falls, and sport activity, but unlike brain concussions, have received much less attention despite the potential for repeated injury leading to permanent neurological sequelae. Consequently, there is no consensus regarding decisions related to return to play following an episode of spinal concussion, nor an understanding of the short- and long-term consequences of repeated injury. Importantly, there are no models of spinal concussion to study the anatomical and functional sequelae of single or repeated injury. We have developed a new model of spinal cord concussion focusing on the anatomical and behavioral outcomes of single and repeated injury. Rats received a very mild (50 kdyn, IH impactor) spinal contusion at C5 and were separated into two groups three weeks after the initial injury--C1, which received a second, sham surgery, and C2, which received a second contusion at the same site. To track motor function and recovery, animals received weekly behavioral tests--BBB, CatWalk™, cylinder, and Von Frey. Analysis of locomotor activity by BBB demonstrated that rats rapidly recovered, regaining near-normal function by one week after the first and second injury, which was confirmed using the more detailed CatWalk™ analysis. The cylinder test showed that a single contusion did not induce significant deficits of the affected limb, but that repeated injury resulted in significant alteration in paw preference, with animals favoring the unaffected limb. Intriguingly, Von Frey analysis demonstrated an increased sensitivity in the contralateral hindlimb in the C2 group vs. the C1 group. Anatomical analyses revealed that while the lesion volume of both groups was minimal, the area of spared white matter in the C2 group was significantly reduced 1 and 2mm rostral to

  19. Automated service quality and its behavioural consequences in CRM Environment: A structural equation modeling and causal loop diagramming approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arup Kumar Baksi

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Information technology induced communications (ICTs have revolutionized the operational aspects of service sector and have triggered a perceptual shift in service quality as rapid dis-intermediation has changed the access-mode of services on part of the consumers. ICT-enabled services further stimulated the perception of automated service quality with renewed dimensions and there subsequent significance to influence the behavioural outcomes of the consumers. Customer Relationship Management (CRM has emerged as an offshoot to technological breakthrough as it ensured service-encapsulation by integrating people, process and technology. This paper attempts to explore the relationship between automated service quality and its behavioural consequences in a relatively novel business-philosophy – CRM. The study has been conducted on the largest public sector bank of India - State bank of India (SBI at Kolkata which has successfully completed its decade-long operational automation in the year 2008. The study used structural equation modeling (SEM to justify the proposed model construct and causal loop diagramming (CLD to depict the negative and positive linkages between the variables.

  20. Neutrino mass as a consequence of the exact solution of 3-3-1 gauge models without exotic electric charges

    CERN Document Server

    Palcu, A

    2006-01-01

    The unjustly neglected method of exactly solving generalized electro-weak models - with an original spontaneous symmetry breaking mechanism based on the gauge group $SU(n)_{L}\\otimes U(1)_{Y}$ - is applied here to a particular class of chiral 3-3-1 models. This procedure enables us - without resorting to any approximation - to express the boson mass spectrum and charges of the particles involved therein as a straightforward consequence of both a proper parametrisation of the Higgs sector and a new generalized Weinberg transformation. We prove that the resulted values can be accommodated to the experimental ones just by tuning a sole parameter. Furthermore, if we take into consideration both left-handed and right-handed components of neutrino (included in a lepton triplet along with their corresponding left-handed charged partner) then we are in position to propose an original method for neutrino to aquire a very small but non-zero mass without spoiling the previous achieved results in the exact solution of th...

  1. Consequences of cannibalism and competition for food in a smallmouth bass population: An individual-based modeling study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Q.; DeAngelis, D.L.

    1998-01-01

    We used an individual-based modeling approach to study the consequences of cannibalism and competition for food in a freshwater fish population. We simulated the daily foraging, growth, and survival of the age-0 fish and older juvenile individuals of a sample population to reconstruct patterns of density dependence in the age-0 fish during the growth season. Cannibalism occurs as a part of the foraging process. For age-0 fish, older juvenile fish are both potential cannibals and competitors of food. We found that competition and cannibalism produced intraclass and interclass density dependence. Our modeling results suggested the following. (1) With low density of juvenile fish and weak interclass interactions, the age-0 fish recruitment shows a Beverton-Holt type of density dependence. (2) With high density of juvenile fish and strong interclass interactions, the age-0 fish recruitment shows a Ricker type of density dependence, and overcompensation occurs. (3) Interclass competition of food is responsible for much of the overcompensation. (4) Cannibalism intensifies the changes in the recruitment that are brought about by competition. Cannibalism can (a) generally reduce the recruitment, (b) particularly reduce the maximum level of recruitment, (c) cause overcompensation to occur at lower densities, and (d) produce a stronger overcompensation. (5) Growth is also a function of density. Cannibalism generally improves average growth of cannibals. (6) Variation in the lengths of age-0 fish increases with density and with a decreased average growth. These results imply that cannibalism and competition for food could strongly affect recruitment dynamics. Our model also showed that the rate of cannibalism either could be fairly even through the whole season or could vary dramatically. The individual-based modeling approach can help ecologists understand the mechanistic connection between daily behavioral and physiological processes operating at the level of individual

  2. Abnormal connection between lateral and posterior semicircular canal revealed by a new modeling process: origin and physiological consequences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rousie, Dominique Louise; Deroubaix, Jean Paul; Joly, Olivier; Baudrillard, Jean Claude; Berthoz, Alain

    2009-05-01

    We developed a modeling procedure using CT scans or MRI data for exploring the bony and lymphatic canals of vestibular patients. We submitted 445 patients with instability and spatial de-orientation to this procedure. Out of the 445 patients, 95 had scoliosis, some of them, because malformations were suspected also had CT-scan modeling and functional tests. We focused on a never described, abnormal connection between the lymphatic lateral and posterior canal (LPCC) with a frequency of 67/445 (15%). In the scoliosis subgroup, the frequency was 52/95 (55%). Three scoliotic patients had CT scans. For each of them, the modeling revealed that LPCC was present on the bony canals. LPCC has pathognomic signs: no rotatory vertigo but frequent instability, transport sickness head tilt on the side of the anomaly, and spatial disorientation in new environment. We evaluated the functional impact of LPCC by testing the vestibulo-ocular reflex (VOR) in horizontal and vertical planes and found reproducible abnormal responses: in the case of left LPCC, during a counterclockwise horizontal rotation or a post clockwise horizontal rotation, added to the expected horizontal nystagmus, we found an unexpected upbeat nystagmus induced by the ampullofugal displacement of the fluid in the posterior canal. As LPCC was found in CT scans and MRI modeling for a same subject, we suggest that it could be a congenital abnormal process of ossification of the canals. The responses to the vestibular tests highlighting constant unexpected nystagmus underline the potential functional consequences of LPCC on vestibular perception and scoliosis.

  3. Review of the chronic exposure pathways models in MACCS (MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System) and several other well-known probabilistic risk assessment models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tveten, U. (Institutt for Energiteknikk, Kjeller (Norway))

    1990-06-01

    The purpose of this report is to document the results of the work performed by the author in connection with the following task, performed for US Nuclear Regulatory Commission, (USNRC) Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research, Division of Systems Research: MACCS Chronic Exposure Pathway Models: Review the chronic exposure pathway models implemented in the MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System (MACCS) and compare those models to the chronic exposure pathway models implemented in similar codes developed in countries that are members of the OECD. The chronic exposures concerned are via: the terrestrial food pathways, the water pathways, the long-term groundshine pathway, and the inhalation of resuspended radionuclides pathway. The USNRC has indicated during discussions of the task that the major effort should be spent on the terrestrial food pathways. There is one chapter for each of the categories of chronic exposure pathways listed above.

  4. Abortion — facts and consequences

    OpenAIRE

    Perinčić, Robert

    1990-01-01

    The author sets forth some of the most recent demographic data, important directions of legal documents as regards abortion, tackling medical and ethical problems of abortion. Some essentials particulars are also given as to the embryonic and foetal development. The whole paper concerns the problems of legal abortion during the first three months of pregnancy. The second part of the paper relates to the consequences of abortion affecting the physical and mental health of a woman as show...

  5. The consequences of "Culture's consequences"

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Knudsen, Fabienne; Loloma Froholdt, Lisa

    2009-01-01

    , but it may also have unintentional outcomes. It may lead to a deterministic view of other cultures, thereby reinforcing prejudices and underestimating other forms of differences; it risks blinding the participants of the specific context of a given communicative situation. The article opens with a critical...... review of the theory of Geert Hofstede, the most renowned representative of this theoretical approach. The practical consequences of using such a concept of culture is then analysed by means of a critical review of an article applying Hofstede to cross-cultural crews in seafaring. Finally, alternative...... views on culture are presented. The aim of the article is, rather than to promote any specific theory, to reflect about diverse perspectives of cultural sense-making in cross-cultural encounters. Udgivelsesdato: Oktober...

  6. The relative contributions of disease and insects in the decline of a long-lived tree: a stochastic demographic model of whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jules, Erik S; Jackson, Jenell I.; van Mantgem, Phillip J.; Beck, Jennifer S.; Murray, Michael P.; Sahara, E. April

    2016-01-01

    Pathogens and insect pests have become increasingly important drivers of tree mortality in forested ecosystems. Unfortunately, understanding the relative contributions of multiple mortality agents to the population decline of trees is difficult, because it requires frequent measures of tree survival, growth, and recruitment, as well as the incidence of mortality agents. We present a population model of whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis), a high-elevation tree undergoing rapid decline in western North America. The loss of whitebark pine is thought to be primarily due to an invasive pathogen (white pine blister rust; Cronartium ribicola) and a native insect (mountain pine beetle; Dendroctonus ponderosae). We utilized seven plots in Crater Lake National Park (Oregon, USA) where 1220 trees were surveyed for health and the presence of blister rust and beetle activity annually from 2003–2014, except 2008. We constructed size-based projection matrices for nine years and calculated the deterministic growth rate (λ) using an average matrix and the stochastic growth rate (λs) by simulation for whitebark pine in our study population. We then assessed the roles of blister rust and beetles by calculating λ and λsusing matrices in which we removed trees with blister rust and, separately, trees with beetles. We also conducted life-table response experiments (LTRE) to determine which demographic changes contributed most to differences in λ between ambient conditions and the two other scenarios. The model suggests that whitebark pine in our plots are currently declining 1.1% per year (λ = 0.9888, λs = 0.9899). Removing blister rust from the models resulted in almost no increase in growth (λ = 0.9916, λs = 0.9930), while removing beetles resulted in a larger increase in growth (λ = 1.0028, λs = 1.0045). The LTRE demonstrated that reductions in stasis of the three largest size classes due to beetles contributed most to the smaller λ in the ambient condition

  7. Global burden of sickle cell anaemia in children under five, 2010-2050: modelling based on demographics, excess mortality, and interventions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frédéric B Piel

    Full Text Available The global burden of sickle cell anaemia (SCA is set to rise as a consequence of improved survival in high-prevalence low- and middle-income countries and population migration to higher-income countries. The host of quantitative evidence documenting these changes has not been assembled at the global level. The purpose of this study is to estimate trends in the future number of newborns with SCA and the number of lives that could be saved in under-five children with SCA by the implementation of different levels of health interventions.First, we calculated projected numbers of newborns with SCA for each 5-y interval between 2010 and 2050 by combining estimates of national SCA frequencies with projected demographic data. We then accounted for under-five mortality (U5m projections and tested different levels of excess mortality for children with SCA, reflecting the benefits of implementing specific health interventions for under-five patients in 2015, to assess the number of lives that could be saved with appropriate health care services. The estimated number of newborns with SCA globally will increase from 305,800 (confidence interval [CI]: 238,400-398,800 in 2010 to 404,200 (CI: 242,500-657,600 in 2050. It is likely that Nigeria (2010: 91,000 newborns with SCA [CI: 77,900-106,100]; 2050: 140,800 [CI: 95,500-200,600] and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (2010: 39,700 [CI: 32,600-48,800]; 2050: 44,700 [CI: 27,100-70,500] will remain the countries most in need of policies for the prevention and management of SCA. We predict a decrease in the annual number of newborns with SCA in India (2010: 44,400 [CI: 33,700-59,100]; 2050: 33,900 [CI: 15,900-64,700]. The implementation of basic health interventions (e.g., prenatal diagnosis, penicillin prophylaxis, and vaccination for SCA in 2015, leading to significant reductions in excess mortality among under-five children with SCA, could, by 2050, prolong the lives of 5,302,900 [CI: 3

  8. Reactor safety study. An assessment of accident risks in U. S. commercial nuclear power plants. Appendix VI. Calculation of reactor accident consequences. [PWR and BWR

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1975-10-01

    Information is presented concerning the radioactive releases from the containment following accidents; radioactive inventory of the reactor core; atmospheric dispersion; reactor sites and meteorological data; radioactive decay and deposition from plumes; finite distance of plume travel; dosimetric models; health effects; demographic data; mitigation of radiation exposure; economic model; and calculated results with consequence model.

  9. Demographic trends in Sweden

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    2004-08-01

    Full Text Available In the present note, we present the main features of recent trends in vital family-demographic behavior in Sweden. For this purpose, published indices of marriage, divorce, and childbearing risks by calendar year are updated by adding another two or three years of observation to our series. We demonstrate that the latest trend reversal in Swedish birth rates, which occurred at the end of the 1990s, continued to manifest itself in increasing propensities for childbearing during the early years of the 21st century. The rise pertains to all birth orders. Marriage propensities showed an increase as well, however, to a large extent expressed in a short-term development that was prevalent at the turn of the millennium. The previous long-term trend of rising divorce risks leveled off during the first two years of the new century.

  10. Consequences of impaired purine recycling on the proteome in a cellular model of Lesch-Nyhan disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dammer, Eric B; Göttle, Martin; Duong, Duc M; Hanfelt, John; Seyfried, Nicholas T; Jinnah, H A

    2015-04-01

    The importance of specific pathways of purine metabolism for normal brain function is highlighted by several inherited disorders, such as Lesch-Nyhan disease (LND). In this disorder, deficiency of the purine recycling enzyme, hypoxanthine-guanine phosphoribosyltransferase (HGprt), causes severe neurological and behavioral abnormalities. Despite many years of research, the mechanisms linking the defect in purine recycling to the neurobehavioral abnormalities remain unclear. In the current studies, an unbiased approach to the identification of potential mechanisms was undertaken by examining changes in protein expression in a model of HGprt deficiency based on the dopaminergic rat PC6-3 line, before and after differentiation with nerve growth factor (NGF). Protein expression profiles of 5 mutant sublines carrying different mutations affecting HGprt enzyme activity were compared to the HGprt-competent parent line using the method of stable isotopic labeling by amino acids in cell culture (SILAC) followed by denaturing gel electrophoresis with liquid chromatography and tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS) of tryptic digests, and subsequent identification of affected biochemical pathways using the Database for Annotation, Visualization and Integrated Discovery (DAVID) functional annotation chart analysis. The results demonstrate that HGprt deficiency causes broad changes in protein expression that depend on whether the cells are differentiated or not. Several of the pathways identified reflect predictable consequences of defective purine recycling. Other pathways were not anticipated, disclosing previously unknown connections with purine metabolism and novel insights into the pathogenesis of LND. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. Theory Creation, Modification, and Testing: An Information-Processing Model and Theory of the Anticipated and Unanticipated Consequences of Research and Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perla, Rocco J.; Carifio, James

    2011-01-01

    Background: Extending Merton's (1936) work on the consequences of purposive social action, the model, theory and taxonomy outlined here incorporates and formalizes both anticipated and unanticipated research findings in a unified theoretical framework. The model of anticipated research findings was developed initially by Carifio (1975, 1977) and…

  12. Statistical Tools for Fitting Models of the Population Consequences of Acoustic Disturbance to Data from Marine Mammal Populations (PCAD Tools II)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-09-30

    Consequences of Acoustic Disturbance to Data from Marine Mammal Populations (PCAD Tools II) Len Thomas, John Harwood, Catriona Harris, & Robert...build a coherent statistical framework for modeling the effects of disturbance, particularly acoustic disturbance, on different species of marine mammals ...are formulated 2 APPROACH Our technical approach has involved building and fitting statistical models to marine mammal data in order to quantify

  13. Demographic Differences in Organizational Commitment to the University of College of Business Administration Students: An Application of the Allen and Meyer Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Love, Kevin G.

    2013-01-01

    Organizational commitment of undergraduate college students to the university was measured by modifying an established measure and demographic differences were examined. Affective, continuance, and normative commitment facets were assessed. No differences based upon gender, race, and GPA were found. Length of time at the university and transfer…

  14. Salmon Life Cycle Models Illuminate Population Consequences of Disparate Survival and Behavior Between Hatchery- and Wild-Origin Fish

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beakes, M.; Satterthwaite, W.; Petrik, C.; Hendrix, N.; Danner, E.; Lindley, S. T.

    2016-02-01

    In past decades there has been a heavy reliance on the production of hatchery-reared fish to supplement declining population numbers of Pacific salmon. In some cases, the benefits of hatchery supplementation have been negligible despite concerted long-term stocking efforts. The management and conservation of depressed salmon populations, via hatchery practices or otherwise, can be improved by expanding our understanding of the dissimilarities between hatchery and wild salmon and how each interacts with the environment. In this study we use a stage-structured salmon life-cycle model to explore the population consequences of disparate survival and behavior between hatchery and wild-origin fall-run Chinook Salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) in the California Central Valley. We couple empirically-based statistical functions with deterministic theoretical models to identify how environmental conditions (e.g., water temperature, flow) and habitat drive the survival and abundance of both hatchery and wild salmon as they integrate across riverscapes and cross marine and freshwater ecosystem boundaries during their life cycle. Results from this study suggest that hatchery practices can lead to dissimilar interactions between hatchery and wild salmon and the environmental conditions they experience. As such, the population dynamics of fall-run Chinook Salmon in the California Central Valley are partly dependent on the composition of individuals that make up their populations. In total, this study improves out ability to conserve imperiled salmonids by identifying mechanistic linkages between the natal origin of salmon, survival and behavior, and the environment at spatiotemporal scales relevant to salmon populations and fisheries management.

  15. Impacts of different SNLS3 light-curve fitters on cosmological consequences of interacting dark energy models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Yazhou; Li, Miao; Li, Nan; Wang, Shuang

    2016-08-01

    We explore the cosmological consequences of interacting dark energy (IDE) models using the SNLS3 supernova samples. In particular, we focus on the impacts of different SNLS3 light-curve fitters (LCF; referred to in this paper as SALT2, SiFTO and combined sample). Firstly, making use of the three SNLS3 data sets, as well as the Planck distance priors data and the galaxy clustering data, we constrain the parameter spaces of three IDE models. Then, we study the cosmic evolutions of Hubble parameter H(z), deceleration diagram q(z), statefinder hierarchy S(1)3(z) and S(1)4(z), and check whether or not these dark energy diagnosis can distinguish the differences among the results of different SNLS3 LCF. Finally, we perform a high redshift cosmic age test using three old high redshift objects (OHRO), and explore the fate of the Universe. We find that the impacts of different SNLS3 LCF are rather small, and can not be distinguished using H(z), q(z), S(1)3(z), S(1)4(z), and the age data of OHRO. In addition, we infer, from the current observations, how far we are from a cosmic doomsday in the worst case, and find that the combined sample always gives the largest 2σ lower limit of the time interval between "big rip" and today, while the results given by the SALT2 and the SiFTO sample are similar. These conclusions are insensitive to a specific form of dark sector interaction. Our method can be used to distinguish the differences among various cosmological observations.

  16. Pension Reform and Demographic Uncertainty : The Case of Germany

    OpenAIRE

    2003-01-01

    The present paper compares the distributional and risk-sharing consequences of two pension reform proposals in Germany which both aim to improve the sustainability of the current system by introducing demographic variables to the benefit calculation. While the first reform proposes a so-called "sustainability factor" which measures the changes in the dependency ratio, the second reform proposes a so-called "demographic factor" which takes into account the changes in life expectancy. Our simul...

  17. Consequences of nocturnal water loss: a synthesis of regulating factors and implications for capacitance, embolism and use in models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeppel, M J B; Lewis, J D; Phillips, N G; Tissue, D T

    2014-10-01

    Total daily water use is a key factor influencing the growth of many terrestrial plants, and reflects both day-time and nocturnal water fluxes. However, while nocturnal sap flow (En) and stomatal conductance (gs,n) have been reported across a range of species, ecosystems and microclimatic conditions, the regulation of these fluxes remains poorly understood. Here, we present a framework describing the role of abiotic and biotic factors in regulating En and gs,n highlighting recent developments in this field. Across ecosystems, En and gs,n generally increased with increasing soil water content and vapor pressure deficit, but the interactive effects of these factors and the potential roles of wind speed and other abiotic factors remain unclear. On average, gs,n and En are higher in broad-leaved compared with needle-leaved plants, in C3 compared with C4 plants, and in tropical compared with temperate species. We discuss the impacts of leaf age, elevated [CO2] and refilling of capacitance on night-time water loss, and how nocturnal gs,n may be included in vegetation models. Younger leaves may have higher gs,n than older leaves. Embolism refilling and recharge of capacitance may affect sap flow such that total plant water loss at night may be less than estimated solely from En measurements. Our estimates of gs,n for typical plant functional types, based on the published literature, suggest that nocturnal water loss may be a significant fraction (10-25%) of total daily water loss. Counter-intuitively, elevated [CO2] may increase nocturnal water loss. Assumptions in process-based ecophysiological models and dynamic global vegetation models that gs is zero when solar radiation is zero are likely to be incorrect. Consequently, failure to adequately consider nocturnal water loss may lead to substantial under-estimation of total plant water use and inaccurate estimation of ecosystem level water balance. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights

  18. Community-level consequences of cannibalism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ohlberger, Jan; Langangen, Oystein; Stenseth, Nils C; Vøllestad, L Asbjørn

    2012-12-01

    Ecological interactions determine the structure and dynamics of communities and their responses to the environment. Understanding the community-level effects of ecological interactions, such as intra- and interspecifc competition, predation, and cannibalism, is therefore central to ecological theory and ecosystem management. Here, we investigate the community-level consequences of cannibalism in populations with density-dependent maturation and reproduction. We model a stage-structured consumer population with an ontogenetic diet shift to analyze how cannibalism alters the conditions for the invasion and persistence of stage-specific predators and competitors. Our results demonstrate that cannibalistic interactions can facilitate coexistence with other species at both trophic levels. This effect of cannibalism critically depends on the food dependence of the demographic processes. The underlying mechanism is a cannibalism-induced shift in the biomass distribution between the consumer life stages. These findings suggest that cannibalism may alter the structure of ecological communities through its effects on species coexistence.

  19. Phenotypic consequences of copy number variation: insights from Smith-Magenis and Potocki-Lupski syndrome mouse models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guénola Ricard

    Full Text Available A large fraction of genome variation between individuals is comprised of submicroscopic copy number variation of genomic DNA segments. We assessed the relative contribution of structural changes and gene dosage alterations on phenotypic outcomes with mouse models of Smith-Magenis and Potocki-Lupski syndromes. We phenotyped mice with 1n (Deletion/+, 2n (+/+, 3n (Duplication/+, and balanced 2n compound heterozygous (Deletion/Duplication copies of the same region. Parallel to the observations made in humans, such variation in gene copy number was sufficient to generate phenotypic consequences: in a number of cases diametrically opposing phenotypes were associated with gain versus loss of gene content. Surprisingly, some neurobehavioral traits were not rescued by restoration of the normal gene copy number. Transcriptome profiling showed that a highly significant propensity of transcriptional changes map to the engineered interval in the five assessed tissues. A statistically significant overrepresentation of the genes mapping to the entire length of the engineered chromosome was also found in the top-ranked differentially expressed genes in the mice containing rearranged chromosomes, regardless of the nature of the rearrangement, an observation robust across different cell lineages of the central nervous system. Our data indicate that a structural change at a given position of the human genome may affect not only locus and adjacent gene expression but also "genome regulation." Furthermore, structural change can cause the same perturbation in particular pathways regardless of gene dosage. Thus, the presence of a genomic structural change, as well as gene dosage imbalance, contributes to the ultimate phenotype.

  20. Phenotypic consequences of copy number variation: insights from Smith-Magenis and Potocki-Lupski syndrome mouse models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ricard, Guénola; Molina, Jessica; Chrast, Jacqueline; Gu, Wenli; Gheldof, Nele; Pradervand, Sylvain; Schütz, Frédéric; Young, Juan I; Lupski, James R; Reymond, Alexandre; Walz, Katherina

    2010-11-23

    A large fraction of genome variation between individuals is comprised of submicroscopic copy number variation of genomic DNA segments. We assessed the relative contribution of structural changes and gene dosage alterations on phenotypic outcomes with mouse models of Smith-Magenis and Potocki-Lupski syndromes. We phenotyped mice with 1n (Deletion/+), 2n (+/+), 3n (Duplication/+), and balanced 2n compound heterozygous (Deletion/Duplication) copies of the same region. Parallel to the observations made in humans, such variation in gene copy number was sufficient to generate phenotypic consequences: in a number of cases diametrically opposing phenotypes were associated with gain versus loss of gene content. Surprisingly, some neurobehavioral traits were not rescued by restoration of the normal gene copy number. Transcriptome profiling showed that a highly significant propensity of transcriptional changes map to the engineered interval in the five assessed tissues. A statistically significant overrepresentation of the genes mapping to the entire length of the engineered chromosome was also found in the top-ranked differentially expressed genes in the mice containing rearranged chromosomes, regardless of the nature of the rearrangement, an observation robust across different cell lineages of the central nervous system. Our data indicate that a structural change at a given position of the human genome may affect not only locus and adjacent gene expression but also "genome regulation." Furthermore, structural change can cause the same perturbation in particular pathways regardless of gene dosage. Thus, the presence of a genomic structural change, as well as gene dosage imbalance, contributes to the ultimate phenotype.

  1. Experimental modelling of the consequences of brief late gestation asphyxia on newborn lamb behaviour and brain structure.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Margie Castillo-Melendez

    Full Text Available Brief but severe asphyxia in late gestation or at the time of birth may lead to neonatal hypoxic ischemic encephalopathy and is associated with long-term neurodevelopmental impairment. We undertook this study to examine the consequences of transient in utero asphyxia in late gestation fetal sheep, on the newborn lamb after birth. Surgery was undertaken at 125 days gestation for implantation of fetal catheters and placement of a silastic cuff around the umbilical cord. At 132 days gestation (0.89 term, the cuff was inflated to induce umbilical cord occlusion (UCO, or sham (control. Fetal arterial blood samples were collected for assessment of fetal wellbeing and the pregnancy continued until birth. At birth, behavioral milestones for newborn lambs were recorded over 24 h, after which the lambs were euthanased for brain collection and histopathology assessments. After birth, UCO lambs displayed significant latencies to (i use all four legs, (ii attain a standing position, (iii find the udder, and (iv successfully suckle--compared to control lambs. Brains of UCO lambs showed widespread pathologies including cell death, white matter disruption, intra-parenchymal hemorrhage and inflammation, which were not observed in full term control brains. UCO resulted in some preterm births, but comparison with age-matched preterm non-UCO control lambs showed that prematurity per se was not responsible for the behavioral delays and brain structural abnormalities resulting from the in utero asphyxia. These results demonstrate that a single, brief fetal asphyxic episode in late gestation results in significant grey and white matter disruption in the developing brain, and causes significant behavioral delay in newborn lambs. These data are consistent with clinical observations that antenatal asphyxia is causal in the development of neonatal encephalopathy and provide an experimental model to advance our understanding of neuroprotective therapies.

  2. Statistical Tools for Fitting Models of the Population Consequences of Acoustic Disturbance to Data from Marine Mammal Populations (PCAD Tools 2)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-09-30

    and A. M. Kilpatrick. 2014. A Bioenergetics Approach to Understanding the Population Consequences of Disturbance: Elephant seals as a Model System. in...1 DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. Statistical Tools for Fitting Models of the Population...S. Schick Centre for Research info Ecological and Environmental Modelling (CREEM) University of St. Andrews St. Andrews, KY16 9LZ, UK phone: +44

  3. Hepatic steatosis : metabolic consequences

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boer, Adriana Maria den

    2006-01-01

    In this thesis we focused on the causes and consequences of hepatic steatosis. Epidemiological studies in humans, as well as experimental studies in animal models, have shown an association between visceral obesity and dyslipidemia, insulin resistance and type 2 diabetes mellitus. The mechanism

  4. Hepatic steatosis : metabolic consequences

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boer, Adriana Maria den

    2006-01-01

    In this thesis we focused on the causes and consequences of hepatic steatosis. Epidemiological studies in humans, as well as experimental studies in animal models, have shown an association between visceral obesity and dyslipidemia, insulin resistance and type 2 diabetes mellitus. The mechanism unde

  5. [Demographic profile of Venezuela].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quintero, I

    1984-04-01

    Sources of demographic data for Venezuela include 11 population censuses conducted between 1873-1981, birth and death registration statistics, and the household sample survey. The average annual rate of population growth increase from 2.8% between 1920-40 to 3-4% thereafter. The population at the 1961 census was 7.52 million. According to preliminary data from the 1981 census, the population of 14.57 million is growing at an annual rate of 2.8%. 41.2% of the population is under 15 years old, implying a huge demand for educational and health services, housing and employment. The dependency rate in 1980 was 81.3% for the country as a whole, 100.4% in rural areas, and 76.0% in urban areas. The young age structure means that the population will continue to grow even if natality rates decline. The crude natality rate was estimated at 47.3/1000 for 1950-55, 36.0 for 1970-75, and 32.9 for 1980-85. Some rural areas still have natality rates of over 47/1000. The total fertility rate declined from 6.5 in 1950-55 to 4.1 in 1980-85. The decline in the natality rate reflects improving quality of life, availability of family planning services, urbanization, and access of women to productive activities and educational centers. The mortality rate was 12.3/1000 in 1950-55, 9.1 in 1960-65, in 1970-75, and has been estimated at 5.5 for 1980-85. Some rural areas have mortality rates of 8.1. The infant mortality rate was 50.2/1000 in 1971 and 34.3 in 1980. Life expectancy at birth is about 69 years. During the 1920s, Venezuela unerwent expansion in infrastructure and technological utilization, generating rapid urbanization. 39.2% of the population was urban in 1941, compared to 78.8% in 1980. The significance of urbanization in Venezuela is due to the rapidity as well as the diffusion of the process. The household sample survey for the 2nd half of 1980 indicated a total of 8.16 million employed and an activity rate of 32.1% overall, 46.4% for males and 17.7% for females. The

  6. Global burden of sickle cell anaemia in children under five, 2010-2050: modelling based on demographics, excess mortality, and interventions

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Piel, Frédéric B; Hay, Simon I; Gupta, Sunetra; Weatherall, David J; Williams, Thomas N

    2013-01-01

    The global burden of sickle cell anaemia (SCA) is set to rise as a consequence of improved survival in high-prevalence low- and middle-income countries and population migration to higher-income countries...

  7. The Macroeconomic Dynamics of Demographic Shocks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Heijdra, B.J.; Ligthart, J.E.

    2004-01-01

    The paper employs an extended Yaari-Blanchard model of overlapping generations to study how the macroeconomy is affected over time by various demographic changes.It is shown that a proportional decline in fertility and death rates has qualitatively similar effects to capital income subsidies; both p

  8. "Demographic faultlines: A meta-analysis of the literature": Retraction of Thatcher and Patel (2011).

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-08-01

    Reports the retraction of "Demographic faultlines: A meta-analysis of the literature" by Sherry M. B. Thatcher and Pankaj C. Patel (, 2011[Nov], Vol 96[6], 1119-1139). At the request of the editor and in consultation with the American Psychological Association, the article is being retracted. This action is a result of a review by the editor and two additional experts that determined that there are significant errors in Tables 1, 2, and 3 which may affect the overall conclusions of the article. Co-author Pankaj C. Patel led the analysis, and both authors acknowledge that inaccuracies were made. The retraction of this article does not preclude resubmission of a new article that addresses the issues noted in the retraction. (The following abstract of the original article appeared in record .) We propose and test a theoretical model focusing on antecedents and consequences of demographic faultlines. We also posit contingencies that affect overall team dynamics in the context of demographic faultlines, such as the study setting and performance measurement. Using meta-analysis structural equation modeling with a final data set consisting of 311 data points (i.e., [predictor-criterion relationships]), from 39 studies that were obtained from 36 papers with a total sample size of 24,388 individuals in 4,366 teams, we found that sex and racial diversity increased demographic faultline strength more than did diversity on the attributes of functional background, educational background, age, and tenure. Demographic faultline strength was found to increase task and relationship conflict as well as decrease team cohesion. Furthermore, although demographic faultline strength decreased both team satisfaction and team performance, there was a stronger decrease in team performance than in team satisfaction. The strength of these relationships increased when the study was conducted in the lab rather than in the field. We describe the theoretical and practical implications of these

  9. A West Virginia case study: does erosion differ between streambanks clustered by the bank assessment of nonpoint source consequences of sediment (BANCS) model parameters?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abby L. McQueen; Nicolas P. Zegre; Danny L. Welsch

    2013-01-01

    The integration of factors and processes responsible for streambank erosion is complex. To explore the influence of physical variables on streambank erosion, parameters for the bank assessment of nonpoint source consequences of sediment (BANCS) model were collected on a 1-km reach of Horseshoe Run in Tucker County, West Virginia. Cluster analysis was used to establish...

  10. [Stent implantation as initial coronary interventional therapy? A theoretical model on clinical and economical consequences of in-stent restenosis].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pfund, A; Wendland, G; Baer, F; Lauterbach, K; Höpp, H W

    2000-08-01

    The reduction of acute complications and late restenosis compared to conventional PTCA has led to a rapid increase in stent implantation as initial treatment for coronary stenosis. As a result, in-stent restenosis has become an important clinical and economical problem, especially the diffuse form, which is much more likely to reappear. In order to compare the consequences of initial stenting and initial angioplasty, we developed an analytic model, considering the differences between diffuse and focal in-stent restenosis. The simulation based on the optimized therapeutic proceeding following an elective 1-vessel revascularization of a 60-year-old patient, dealing with probabilities for acute complications and late restenosis taken from the literature and in-hospital costs obtained from 200 elective interventions. In the stent group 71.0% of patients were free of any target lesion-related event, compared to 60.2% in the PTCA group. Catheter reintervention was necessary for 32.1% of the patients initially treated with angioplasty and for 17.6% of the initially stented patients, whereas 7.7% of the stent patients had to undergo elective bypass surgery as final treatment compared to 2.8% in the PTCA arm. Long-term medical costs for initial stenting (6,237 Euros) were 14% higher than for conventional PTCA (5,345 Euros). Taking also into consideration the indirect costs (loss of productivity) for a collective with an employment rate of 50%, the difference between stent implantation (9,067 Euros) and angioplasty (8,581 Euros) is smaller. Initial treatment of coronary stenosis by stent implantation decreases the rate of repeat revascularization compared to initial PTCA, but there is a greater likelihood that elective bypass surgery will become necessary. This difference in following treatment is related to the occurrence of diffuse in-stent restenosis. When calculating the long-term costs stenting still appeared to be more expensive than PTCAA because the savings in

  11. Demographic Trends: Impact on Schools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chong, Sylvia N. Y.; Cheah, Horn Mun

    2010-01-01

    Background: Singapore is experiencing great demographic change. These demographic trends show fewer young people and declining birth rates, greater longevity for ageing generations and an increase in the number of non-Singaporean residents. Statistics also show that more than half of the total population increase in the last decades was…

  12. Induced Fungal Resistance to Insect Grazing : Reciprocal Fitness Consequences and Fungal Gene Expression in the Drosophila-Aspergillus Model System

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ortiz, Silvia Caballero; Trienens, Monika; Rohlfs, Marko

    2013-01-01

    Background: Fungi are key dietary resources for many animals. Fungi, in consequence, have evolved sophisticated physical and chemical defences for repelling and impairing fungivores. Expression of such defences may entail costs, requiring diversion of energy and nutrients away from fungal growth and

  13. Brain Consequences of Spinal Cord Injury with and without Neuropathic Pain: Translating Animal Models of Neuroinflammation onto Human Neural Networks and Back

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-10-01

    injury with regards to alterations in brain network function and expression of activated microglia, both human patients and in an animal model...Z39.18 Brain Consequences of Spinal Cord Injury with and without Neuropathic Pain: Translating Animal Models of Neuroinflammation onto Human Neural...Specific Aim 2A: Define brain structural, diffusion and functional network changes in the SCI populations. Goal 1: Human PET-MR imaging of microglia

  14. Consequences of team charter quality: Teamwork mental model similarity and team viability in engineering design student teams

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conway Hughston, Veronica

    Since 1996 ABET has mandated that undergraduate engineering degree granting institutions focus on learning outcomes such as professional skills (i.e. solving unstructured problems and working in teams). As a result, engineering curricula were restructured to include team based learning---including team charters. Team charters were diffused into engineering education as one of many instructional activities to meet the ABET accreditation mandates. However, the implementation and execution of team charters into engineering team based classes has been inconsistent and accepted without empirical evidence of the consequences. The purpose of the current study was to investigate team effectiveness, operationalized as team viability, as an outcome of team charter implementation in an undergraduate engineering team based design course. Two research questions were the focus of the study: a) What is the relationship between team charter quality and viability in engineering student teams, and b) What is the relationship among team charter quality, teamwork mental model similarity, and viability in engineering student teams? Thirty-eight intact teams, 23 treatment and 15 comparison, participated in the investigation. Treatment teams attended a team charter lecture, and completed a team charter homework assignment. Each team charter was assessed and assigned a quality score. Comparison teams did not join the lecture, and were not asked to create a team charter. All teams completed each data collection phase: a) similarity rating pretest; b) similarity posttest; and c) team viability survey. Findings indicate that team viability was higher in teams that attended the lecture and completed the charter assignment. Teams with higher quality team charter scores reported higher levels of team viability than teams with lower quality charter scores. Lastly, no evidence was found to support teamwork mental model similarity as a partial mediator of the team charter quality on team viability

  15. The demographic cycle and optimal schooling choices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeon, B P; Berger, M C

    1996-10-01

    A model is developed that enables the authors to estimate the effects of demographic cycles on both earnings and schooling. The model is tested using data from the 1991 Korean Occupational Wage Survey. The results indicate that cohorts following large birth cohorts in the cycle choose relatively less formal schooling compared to pre-peak cohorts, and that post-peak cohorts also have lower incomes. This result concerning South Korea is consistent with findings from previous studies concerning the United States.

  16. Improving public health training and research capacity in Africa: a replicable model for linking training to health and socio-demographic surveillance data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jill R. Williams

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available Background: Research training for public health professionals is key to the future of public health and policy in Africa. A growing number of schools of public health are connected to health and socio-demographic surveillance system field sites in developing countries, in Africa and Asia in particular. Linking training programs with these sites provides important opportunities to improve training, build local research capacity, foreground local health priorities, and increase the relevance of research to local health policy. Objective: To increase research training capacity in public health programs by providing targeted training to students and increasing the accessibility of existing data. Design: This report is a case study of an approach to linking public health research and training at the University of the Witwatersrand. We discuss the development of a sample training database from the Agincourt Health and Socio-demographic Surveillance System in South Africa and outline a concordant transnational intensive short course on longitudinal data analysis offered by the University of the Witwatersrand and the University of Colorado-Boulder. This case study highlights ways common barriers to linking research and training can be overcome. Results and Conclusions: This collaborative effort demonstrates that linking training to ongoing data collection can improve student research, accelerate student training, and connect students to an international network of scholars. Importantly, the approach can be adapted to other partnerships between schools of public health and longitudinal research sites.

  17. Modelling hydrological changes in surface in relation with anthropogenic drivers and consequences on human health and local economic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sandoz, Alain; Leblond, Agnès; Boutron, Olivier

    2016-04-01

    of the watershed. The modeling also performed to simulate a change in rainfall locally to measure hydrological and environmental consequences. According to these scenarios, it was possible to map the potential areas of mosquitoes breeding sites (presence / absence of mosquitoes) and their impact on urban populations in terms of health risks and nuisance. This territory represents many interests for decision-makers interested in issues of governance and renaturation. To improve the inclusion of better water governance and territories, as well as facilitate dynamic annealing, it might be necessary to help decision-makers having a better knowledge of the impact of human drivers on water management on the territory. This increased knowledge would also enable local decision-makers to improve their awareness of the heritage and biodiversity of wetlands. This project was funded by the French Ministry of Ecology, Sustainable Development and Energy as part of the projects Water and Territories.

  18. Category Specificity of Self-Reported Sexual Attraction and Viewing Times to Male and Female Models in a Large U.S. Sample: Sex, Sexual Orientation, and Demographic Effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lippa, Richard A

    2017-01-01

    Recent research has documented large and robust sex differences in the category specificity of self-reported sexual attraction and viewing times to men and women, with men showing more polarized responses to the two sexes than women. However, this research has been limited by the use of small and restricted samples. To address this, the current study assessed a representative sample of more than 2800 U.S. adults on demographic and attitudinal variables and on two measures of category specificity: one based on self-reported sexual attraction and the other based on viewing times to male and female swimsuit models. Key findings were replicated. On average, men were considerably more category specific in self-reported sexual attraction and viewing times than women, and this was true for both heterosexual and homosexual participants. Self-identified bisexual and asexual participants tended to be lower on category specificity than other groups. Although demographic and attitudinal factors such as age, ethnicity, state and region of residence, social class, political liberalism-conservatism, and religiousness were sometimes weakly related to category specificity, sex differences in category specificity remained robust despite demographic and attitudinal variation.

  19. Global Demographic Change and Its Implications for Military Power

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-01

    119 APPENDIXES A. Delayed Maternity and Fertility Rates...some during the past decade. The consequence of what has already taken place in the world’s maternity wards (so to speak) will unfold over the next 20...bathing, and dressing . See Spillman, 2004, p. 160. 31 Spillman, 2004, Table 2, pp. 167–168. 32 Bloom, Canning, and Fink, 2008. 74 Global Demographic

  20. The Russian Market of University Services: Social and Demographic Aspects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bydanova, Elizaveta; Mushketova, Natalia; Rouet, Gilles

    2015-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to analyze the impact of demographic, social, economic and international aspects on the market of university services in Russia. It also reminds readers briefly of the evolution of the Russian higher education system during the last 20 years and considers some consequences of the current public policy and…

  1. The Russian Market of University Services: Social and Demographic Aspects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bydanova, Elizaveta; Mushketova, Natalia; Rouet, Gilles

    2015-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to analyze the impact of demographic, social, economic and international aspects on the market of university services in Russia. It also reminds readers briefly of the evolution of the Russian higher education system during the last 20 years and considers some consequences of the current public policy and…

  2. Complexity and demographic explanations of cumulative culture.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adrien Querbes

    Full Text Available Formal models have linked prehistoric and historical instances of technological change (e.g., the Upper Paleolithic transition, cultural loss in Holocene Tasmania, scientific progress since the late nineteenth century to demographic change. According to these models, cumulation of technological complexity is inhibited by decreasing--while favoured by increasing--population levels. Here we show that these findings are contingent on how complexity is defined: demography plays a much more limited role in sustaining cumulative culture in case formal models deploy Herbert Simon's definition of complexity rather than the particular definitions of complexity hitherto assumed. Given that currently available empirical evidence doesn't afford discriminating proper from improper definitions of complexity, our robustness analyses put into question the force of recent demographic explanations of particular episodes of cultural change.

  3. Economic consequences of population size, structure and growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, R

    1983-01-01

    There seems to be 4 major approaches to conceptualizing and modeling demographic influences on economic and social welfare. These approaches are combined in various ways to construct richer and more comprehensive models. The basic approaches are: demographic influences on household or family behavior; population growth and reproducible capital; population size and fixed factors; and population and advantages of scale. These 4 models emphasize the supply side effects of population. A few of the ways in which these theories have been combined are sketched. Neoclassical growth models often have been combined with age distributed populations of individuals (or households), assumed to pursue optimal life cycle consumption and saving. In some well known development models, neoclassical growth models for the modern sector are linked by labor markets and migration to fixed factor (land) models of the traditional (agricultural) sector. A whole series of macro simulation models for developed and developing countries was based on single sector neoclassical growth models with age distributed populations. Yet, typically the household level foundations of assumed age distribution effects were not worked out. Simon's (1977) simulation models are in a class by themselves, for they are the only models that attempt to incorporate all the kinds of effects discussed. The economic demography of the individual and family cycle, as it is affected by regimes of fertility, mortality, and nuptiality, taken as given, are considered. The examination touches on many of the purported consequences of aggregate population growth and age composition, since so many of these are based implicitly or explicitly on assertions about micro level behavior. Demographic influences on saving and consumption, on general labor supply and female labor supply, and on problems of youth and old age dependency frequently fall in this category. Finally, attention is focused specifically on macro economic issues in

  4. The Impact of Extrinsic Demographic Factors on Cantonese Speech Acquisition

    Science.gov (United States)

    To, Carol K. S.; Cheung, Pamela S. P.; McLeod, Sharynne

    2013-01-01

    This study modeled the associations between extrinsic demographic factors and children's speech acquisition in Hong Kong Cantonese. The speech of 937 Cantonese-speaking children aged 2;4 to 6;7 in Hong Kong was assessed using a standardized speech test. Demographic information regarding household income, paternal education, maternal education,…

  5. Phenomenological consequences of supersymmetry

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hinchliffe, I.; Littenberg, L.

    1982-01-01

    This report deals with the phenomenological consequences of supersymmetric theories, and with the implications of such theories for future high energy machines. It is concerned only with high energy predictions of supersymmetry; low energy consequences (for example in the K/sub o/anti K/sub o/ system) are discussed in the context of future experiments by another group, and will be mentioned briefly only in the context of constraining existing models. However a brief section is included on the implication for proton decay, although detailed experimental questions are not discussed. The report is organized as follows. Section I consists of a brief review of supersymmetry and the salient features of existing supersymmetric models; this section can be ignored by those familiar with such models since it contains nothing new. Section 2 deals with the consequences for nucleon decay of SUSY. The remaining sections then discuss the physics possibilities of various machines; e anti e in Section 3, ep in Section 4, pp (or anti pp) colliders in Section 5 and fixed target hadron machines in Section 6.

  6. EJSCREEN Demographic Indicators 2016 Public

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — EJSCREEN uses demographic factors as very general indicators of a community's potential susceptibility to the types of environmental factors included in this...

  7. EJSCREEN Demographic Indicators 2015 Internal

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — EJSCREEN uses demographic factors as very general indicators of a community's potential susceptibility to the types of environmental factors included in this...

  8. EJSCREEN Demographic Indicators 2015 Public

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — EJSCREEN uses demographic factors as very general indicators of a community's potential susceptibility to the types of environmental factors included in this...

  9. Modeling the consequences on late Triassic environment of intense pulse-like degassing during the Central Atlantic Magmatic Province using the GEOCLIM model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Paris

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available The Triassic-Jurassic boundary (TJB is associated with one of the five largest mass extinctions of the Phanerozoic. A deep carbon cycle perturbation and a carbonate production crisis are observed during the late Triassic. The Central Atlantic Magmatic Province (CAMP, one of the most important large igneous provinces of the Phanerozoic, emplaced at the TJB. To understand the carbon cycle perturbations observed at the TJB, we investigate the consequences of CO2 degassing associated to the CAMP emplacement on atmospheric and oceanic carbon cycle. The CO2 input within the atmosphere due to volcanism has been modeled using a global biogeochemical cycle box model (COMBINE coupled with a climate model (FOAM. Weathering fluxes and CO2 equilibrium are constrained by the Rhaetian paleogeography and different scenarios of the CAMP emplacement are modeled. The study focuses (1 on the geological record and the carbonate productions crisis and (2 on the sedimentary carbon isotope record. For point (1, comparison of different modeling scenarios shows that a Gaussian CO2 emission distribution over the duration of the main activity phase of the CAMP fails in reproducing any of the geological observations, mainly the carbonate production crisis observed in the late Rhaetian sediments. Contrastingly, intense degassing peaks lead to successive decrease in carbonate production as observed in the geological record. For point (2, the perturbations of carbon cycle due to the degassing of CO2 with a mantellic carbon isotopic composition of −5‰ do not reproduce the intensity of the observed carbon isotope excursions. This was achieved in our model by assuming a mantellic carbon isotopic composition of −20‰. Even if this hypothesis requires further investigations, such low values may be associated to degassing of carbon from pools of light isotopic carbon located at the transition zone (Cartigny, 2010

  10. Practical Application of the MFM Suite on a PWR System: Modelling and Reasoning on Causes and Consequences of Process Anomalies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhang, Xinxin; Thunem, Harald P - J; Lind, Morten

    2014-01-01

    Multilevel Flow Modelling (MFM) is a functional modelling methodology which applies means - end and parts - whole decomposition and aggregation techniques to handle the complexity of engineering systems. It has been adopted in several case studies to model the process goal and functions of PWR...... is equipped with an MFM Model Editing Interface to facilitate the modelling process and MFM model analysis modules to run diag nosis and prognosis analyses based on developed models. New features of the MFM Suite also include making corresponding process diagram for the plant being modelled with MFM...... and linking the MFM model to its process components. The purpose of this report is to make a comprehensive demonstration of how to use the MFM Suite to develop MFM models and run causal reasoning for abnormal situations. This report will explain the capability of representing process and operational knowledge...

  11. 具有人口转变与人力资本的经济增长模型及仿真%An Economic Growth Model with the Demographic Transitions,Human Capital and Simulation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    蔡东汉

    2011-01-01

    In this paper, we set up a model to inquire the affection of the demographic transition and human capital on the economic growth.Combining the function which describes the population change in the period of the demographic transition and the human growth equation with the Solow model, we obtain a two-dimension dynamical system.It is proved that the dynamical system has at least one equilibrium and the solution of the dynamical system is asymptotically stable, so the economy described by the model has stable growth path when the equilibrium is unique.In the end, the numerical simulation is given to present the affections of the demographic transition and human capital on the economic growth.%建立数学模型探讨了人口转变与人力资本对经济增长的影响.将描述人口转变的倒U字型人口增长率函数和人均人力资本引入Solow模型,结合人均人力资本增长方程得到二维的动力系统.证明动力系统至少存在一个非零平衡点且当非零平衡点惟一时,动力系统的解是渐近稳定的,模型描述的经济具有渐近稳定的经济增长路径.通过数值仿真展现人口转变与人力资本对经济增长的影响.

  12. Health effects models for nuclear power plant accident consequence analysis. Modification of models resulting from addition of effects of exposure to alpha-emitting radionuclides: Revision 1, Part 2, Scientific bases for health effects models, Addendum 2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Abrahamson, S. [Wisconsin Univ., Madison, WI (United States); Bender, M.A. [Brookhaven National Lab., Upton, NY (United States); Boecker, B.B.; Scott, B.R. [Lovelace Biomedical and Environmental Research Inst., Albuquerque, NM (United States). Inhalation Toxicology Research Inst.; Gilbert, E.S. [Pacific Northwest Lab., Richland, WA (United States)

    1993-05-01

    The Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) has sponsored several studies to identify and quantify, through the use of models, the potential health effects of accidental releases of radionuclides from nuclear power plants. The Reactor Safety Study provided the basis for most of the earlier estimates related to these health effects. Subsequent efforts by NRC-supported groups resulted in improved health effects models that were published in the report entitled {open_quotes}Health Effects Models for Nuclear Power Plant Consequence Analysis{close_quotes}, NUREG/CR-4214, 1985 and revised further in the 1989 report NUREG/CR-4214, Rev. 1, Part 2. The health effects models presented in the 1989 NUREG/CR-4214 report were developed for exposure to low-linear energy transfer (LET) (beta and gamma) radiation based on the best scientific information available at that time. Since the 1989 report was published, two addenda to that report have been prepared to (1) incorporate other scientific information related to low-LET health effects models and (2) extend the models to consider the possible health consequences of the addition of alpha-emitting radionuclides to the exposure source term. The first addendum report, entitled {open_quotes}Health Effects Models for Nuclear Power Plant Accident Consequence Analysis, Modifications of Models Resulting from Recent Reports on Health Effects of Ionizing Radiation, Low LET Radiation, Part 2: Scientific Bases for Health Effects Models,{close_quotes} was published in 1991 as NUREG/CR-4214, Rev. 1, Part 2, Addendum 1. This second addendum addresses the possibility that some fraction of the accident source term from an operating nuclear power plant comprises alpha-emitting radionuclides. Consideration of chronic high-LET exposure from alpha radiation as well as acute and chronic exposure to low-LET beta and gamma radiations is a reasonable extension of the health effects model.

  13. Stock vs. Bond Yields, and Demographic Fluctuations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gozluklu, Arie; Morin, Annaïg

    that the slow-evolving time-series covariation due to changing population age structure accounts for the equilibrium relation between stock and bond markets. As a result, by exploiting the demographic information into distant future, the forecasting performance of evaluation models improves. Finally, using...... a cross-country panel, we document the cross-sectional variation of the demographic effect and explain the cross-country differences in comovement between stock and bond markets.......This paper analyzes the strong comovement between real stock and nominal bond yields at generational (low) frequencies. Life-cycle patterns in savings behavior in an overlapping generations model with cash-in-advance constraints explain this persistent comovement between financial yields. We argue...

  14. Stock vs. Bond Yields, and Demographic Fluctuations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gozluklu, Arie; Morin, Annaïg

    that the slow-evolving time-series covariation due to changing population age structure accounts for the equilibrium relation between stock and bond markets. As a result, by exploiting the demographic information into distant future, the forecasting performance of evaluation models improves. Finally, using...... a cross-country panel, we document the cross-sectional variation of the demographic effect and explain the cross-country differences in comovement between stock and bond markets.......This paper analyzes the strong comovement between real stock and nominal bond yields at generational (low) frequencies. Life-cycle patterns in savings behavior in an overlapping generations model with cash-in-advance constraints explain this persistent comovement between financial yields. We argue...

  15. Modelling the long-term consequences of a hypothetical dispersal of radioactivity in an urban area including remediation alternatives

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thiessen, K.M.; Andersson, Kasper Grann; Batandjieva, B.

    2009-01-01

    The Urban Remediation Working Group of the International Atomic Energy Agency's EMRAS (Environmental Modelling for Radiation Safety) program was organized to address issues of remediation assessment modelling for urban areas contaminated with dispersed radionuclides. The present paper describes t...

  16. Mortality versus Morbidity in the Demographic Transition

    OpenAIRE

    Aksan, Anna-Maria; Chakraborty, Shankha

    2014-01-01

    The link between the mortality and epidemiological transitions is used to identify the effect of the former on the fertility transition: a mortality transition that is not accompanied by improving morbidity causes slower demographic and economic change. In a model where children may die from infectious disease, childhood health affects human capital and noninfectious-disease-related adult mortality. When child mortality falls from lower prevalence, as it did in western Europe, labor productiv...

  17. Cross-site comparison of land-use decision-making and its consequences across land systems with a generalized agent-based model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magliocca, Nicholas R; Brown, Daniel G; Ellis, Erle C

    2014-01-01

    Local changes in land use result from the decisions and actions of land-users within land systems, which are structured by local and global environmental, economic, political, and cultural contexts. Such cross-scale causation presents a major challenge for developing a general understanding of how local decision-making shapes land-use changes at the global scale. This paper implements a generalized agent-based model (ABM) as a virtual laboratory to explore how global and local processes influence the land-use and livelihood decisions of local land-users, operationalized as settlement-level agents, across the landscapes of six real-world test sites. Test sites were chosen in USA, Laos, and China to capture globally-significant variation in population density, market influence, and environmental conditions, with land systems ranging from swidden to commercial agriculture. Publicly available global data were integrated into the ABM to model cross-scale effects of economic globalization on local land-use decisions. A suite of statistics was developed to assess the accuracy of model-predicted land-use outcomes relative to observed and random (i.e. null model) landscapes. At four of six sites, where environmental and demographic forces were important constraints on land-use choices, modeled land-use outcomes were more similar to those observed across sites than the null model. At the two sites in which market forces significantly influenced land-use and livelihood decisions, the model was a poorer predictor of land-use outcomes than the null model. Model successes and failures in simulating real-world land-use patterns enabled the testing of hypotheses on land-use decision-making and yielded insights on the importance of missing mechanisms. The virtual laboratory approach provides a practical framework for systematic improvement of both theory and predictive skill in land change science based on a continual process of experimentation and model enhancement.

  18. Cross-site comparison of land-use decision-making and its consequences across land systems with a generalized agent-based model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicholas R Magliocca

    Full Text Available Local changes in land use result from the decisions and actions of land-users within land systems, which are structured by local and global environmental, economic, political, and cultural contexts. Such cross-scale causation presents a major challenge for developing a general understanding of how local decision-making shapes land-use changes at the global scale. This paper implements a generalized agent-based model (ABM as a virtual laboratory to explore how global and local processes influence the land-use and livelihood decisions of local land-users, operationalized as settlement-level agents, across the landscapes of six real-world test sites. Test sites were chosen in USA, Laos, and China to capture globally-significant variation in population density, market influence, and environmental conditions, with land systems ranging from swidden to commercial agriculture. Publicly available global data were integrated into the ABM to model cross-scale effects of economic globalization on local land-use decisions. A suite of statistics was developed to assess the accuracy of model-predicted land-use outcomes relative to observed and random (i.e. null model landscapes. At four of six sites, where environmental and demographic forces were important constraints on land-use choices, modeled land-use outcomes were more similar to those observed across sites than the null model. At the two sites in which market forces significantly influenced land-use and livelihood decisions, the model was a poorer predictor of land-use outcomes than the null model. Model successes and failures in simulating real-world land-use patterns enabled the testing of hypotheses on land-use decision-making and yielded insights on the importance of missing mechanisms. The virtual laboratory approach provides a practical framework for systematic improvement of both theory and predictive skill in land change science based on a continual process of experimentation and model

  19. Induced fungal resistance to insect grazing: reciprocal fitness consequences and fungal gene expression in the Drosophila-Aspergillus model system.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Silvia Caballero Ortiz

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Fungi are key dietary resources for many animals. Fungi, in consequence, have evolved sophisticated physical and chemical defences for repelling and impairing fungivores. Expression of such defences may entail costs, requiring diversion of energy and nutrients away from fungal growth and reproduction. Inducible resistance that is mounted after attack by fungivores may allow fungi to circumvent the potential costs of defence when not needed. However, no information exists on whether fungi display inducible resistance. We combined organism and fungal gene expression approaches to investigate whether fungivory induces resistance in fungi. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Here we show that grazing by larval fruit flies, Drosophila melanogaster, induces resistance in the filamentous mould, Aspergillus nidulans, to subsequent feeding by larvae of the same insect. Larval grazing triggered the expression of various putative fungal resistance genes, including the secondary metabolite master regulator gene laeA. Compared to the severe pathological effects of wild type A. nidulans, which led to 100% insect mortality, larval feeding on a laeA loss-of-function mutant resulted in normal insect development. Whereas the wild type fungus recovered from larval grazing, larvae eradicated the chemically deficient mutant. In contrast, mutualistic dietary yeast, Saccharomyces cerevisiae, reached higher population densities when exposed to Drosophila larval feeding. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our study presents novel evidence that insect grazing is capable of inducing resistance to further grazing in a filamentous fungus. This phenotypic shift in resistance to fungivory is accompanied by changes in the expression of genes involved in signal transduction, epigenetic regulation and secondary metabolite biosynthesis pathways. Depending on reciprocal insect-fungus fitness consequences, fungi may be selected for inducible resistance to maintain high fitness in

  20. Population Composition, Migration and Inequality: The Influence of Demographic Changes on Disaster Risk and Vulnerability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donner, William; Rodriguez, Havidan

    2008-01-01

    The changing demographic landscape of the United States calls for a reassessment of the societal impacts and consequences of so called "natural" and technological disasters. An increasing trend towards greater demographic and socio-economic diversity (in part due to high rates of international immigration), combined with mounting…

  1. Impact of environmental factors on the demographic characteristics in Tomsk Oblast (Russia, 1980-2015)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pugacheva, E.; Mezhibor, A.; Makarenko, T.

    2016-09-01

    The research represents the analysis of essential demographic indexes in Tomsk Oblast (Russia): birth-rate, death-rate, natural increase (1980-2015), migration increase (19972014), and child mortality (1990-2015). Environmental factors were determined as influencing the health and as a consequence, having the impact on the demographic characteristics of the studied region.

  2. Population Composition, Migration and Inequality: The Influence of Demographic Changes on Disaster Risk and Vulnerability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donner, William; Rodriguez, Havidan

    2008-01-01

    The changing demographic landscape of the United States calls for a reassessment of the societal impacts and consequences of so called "natural" and technological disasters. An increasing trend towards greater demographic and socio-economic diversity (in part due to high rates of international immigration), combined with mounting…

  3. Virtual water controlled demographic growth of nations

    CERN Document Server

    Suweis, Samir; Maritan, Amos; D'Odorico, Paolo

    2013-01-01

    Population growth is in general constrained by food production, which in turn depends on the access to water resources. At a country level, some populations use more water than they control because of their ability to import food and the virtual water required for its production. Here, we investigate the dependence of demographic growth on available water resources for exporting and importing nations. By quantifying the carrying capacity of nations based on calculations of the virtual water available through the food trade network, we point to the existence of a global water unbalance. We suggest that current export rates will not be maintained and consequently we question the long-run sustainability of the food trade system as a whole. Water rich regions are likely to soon reduce the amount of virtual water they export, thus leaving import-dependent regions without enough water to sustain their populations. We also investigate the potential impact of possible scenarios that might mitigate these effects throu...

  4. Tourism Market and Demographic Changes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexandru Nedelea

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper identifies the major demographic trends and their implications for consumer market. It is important to know how will demographic change influence the tourism market in particularly and how can the tourist industry adapt to these. The advancing ageing of society will result in far reaching changes, particularly on the demand side. To profitably seize the opportunities, managers must understand how senior markets evolve and adapt products and service offerings along multiple dimensions to meet the needs of senior consumers.

  5. Parametrization consequences of constraining soil organic matter models by total carbon and radiocarbon using long-term field data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Menichetti, Lorenzo; Kätterer, Thomas; Leifeld, Jens

    2016-05-01

    Soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics result from different interacting processes and controls on spatial scales from sub-aggregate to pedon to the whole ecosystem. These complex dynamics are translated into models as abundant degrees of freedom. This high number of not directly measurable variables and, on the other hand, very limited data at disposal result in equifinality and parameter uncertainty. Carbon radioisotope measurements are a proxy for SOC age both at annual to decadal (bomb peak based) and centennial to millennial timescales (radio decay based), and thus can be used in addition to total organic C for constraining SOC models. By considering this additional information, uncertainties in model structure and parameters may be reduced. To test this hypothesis we studied SOC dynamics and their defining kinetic parameters in the Zürich Organic Fertilization Experiment (ZOFE) experiment, a > 60-year-old controlled cropland experiment in Switzerland, by utilizing SOC and SO14C time series. To represent different processes we applied five model structures, all stemming from a simple mother model (Introductory Carbon Balance Model - ICBM): (I) two decomposing pools, (II) an inert pool added, (III) three decomposing pools, (IV) two decomposing pools with a substrate control feedback on decomposition, (V) as IV but with also an inert pool. These structures were extended to explicitly represent total SOC and 14C pools. The use of different model structures allowed us to explore model structural uncertainty and the impact of 14C on kinetic parameters. We considered parameter uncertainty by calibrating in a formal Bayesian framework. By varying the relative importance of total SOC and SO14C data in the calibration, we could quantify the effect of the information from these two data streams on estimated model parameters. The weighing of the two data streams was crucial for determining model outcomes, and we suggest including it in future modeling efforts whenever SO14C

  6. Evaluation of Current Computer Models Applied in the DOE Complex for SAR Analysis of Radiological Dispersion & Consequences

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    O' Kula, K. R. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States); East, J. M. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States); Weber, A. H. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States); Savino, A. V. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States); Mazzola, C. A. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States)

    2003-01-01

    The evaluation of atmospheric dispersion/ radiological dose analysis codes included fifteen models identified in authorization basis safety analysis at DOE facilities, or from regulatory and research agencies where past or current work warranted inclusion of a computer model. All computer codes examined were reviewed using general and specific evaluation criteria developed by the Working Group. The criteria were based on DOE Orders and other regulatory standards and guidance for performing bounding and conservative dose calculations. Included were three categories of criteria: (1) Software Quality/User Interface; (2) Technical Model Adequacy; and (3) Application/Source Term Environment. A consensus-based limited quantitative ranking process was used to base an order of model preference as both an overall conclusion, and under specific conditions.

  7. Fitness consequences of maternal and embryonic responses to environmental variation: using reptiles as models for studies of developmental plasticity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warner, Daniel A

    2014-11-01

    Environmental factors strongly influence phenotypic variation within populations. The environment contributes to this variation in two ways: (1) by acting as a determinant of phenotypic variation (i.e., plastic responses) and (2) as an agent of selection that "chooses" among existing phenotypes. Understanding how these two environmental forces contribute to phenotypic variation is a major goal in the field of evolutionary biology and a primary objective of my research program. The objective of this article is to provide a framework to guide studies of environmental sources of phenotypic variation (specifically, developmental plasticity and maternal effects, and their adaptive significance). Two case studies from my research on reptiles are used to illustrate the general approaches I have taken to address these conceptual topics. Some key points for advancing our understanding of environmental influences on phenotypic variation include (1) merging laboratory-based research that identifies specific environmental effects with field studies to validate ecological relevance; (2) using controlled experimental approaches that mimic complex environments found in nature; (3) integrating data across biological fields (e.g., genetics, morphology, physiology, behavior, and ecology) under an evolutionary framework to provide novel insights into the underlying mechanisms that generate phenotypic variation; (4) assessing fitness consequences using measurements of survival and/or reproductive success across ontogeny (from embryos to adults) and under multiple ecologically-meaningful contexts; and (5) quantifying the strength and form of natural selection in multiple populations over multiple periods of time to understand the spatial and temporal consistency of phenotypic selection. Research programs that focus on organisms that are amenable to these approaches will provide the most promise for advancing our understanding of the environmental factors that generate the remarkable

  8. Demographic side effects of selective hunting in ungulates and carnivores.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milner, Jos M; Nilsen, Erlend B; Andreassen, Harry P

    2007-02-01

    Selective harvesting regimes are often implemented because age and sex classes contribute differently to population dynamics and hunters show preferences associated with body size and trophy value. We reviewed the literature on how such cropping regimes affect the demography of the remaining population (here termed demographic side effects). First, we examined the implications of removing a large proportion of a specific age or sex class. Such harvesting strategies often bias the population sex ratio toward females and reduce the mean age of males, which may consequently delay birth dates, reduce birth synchrony, delay body mass development, and alter offspring sex ratios. Second, we reviewed the side effects associated with the selective removal of relatively few specific individuals, often large trophy males. Such selective harvesting can destabilize social structures and the dominance hierarchy and may cause loss of social knowledge, sexually selected infanticide, habitat changes among reproductive females, and changes in offspring sex ratio. A common feature of many of the reported mechanisms is that they ultimately depress recruitment and in some extreme cases even cause total reproductive collapse. These effects could act additively and destabilize the dynamics of populations, thus having a stronger effect on population growth rate than first anticipated. Although more experimental than observational studies reported demographic side effects, we argue that this may reflect the quite subtle mechanisms involved, which are unlikely to be detected in observational studies without rigorous monitoring regimes. We call for more detailed studies of hunted populations with marked individuals that address how the expression of these effects varies across mating systems, habitats, and with population density. Theoretical models investigating how strongly these effects influence population growth rates are also required.

  9. Logistics Dynamics and Demographic Change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Klumpp, Matthias; Abidi, Hella; Bioly, Sascha; Buchkremer, Rüdiger; Sandhaus, Gregor; Freitag, Michael; Kotzab, Herbert; Pannek, Jürgen

    2016-01-01

    Change and dynamics in logistics are interestingly driven at the same time by external as well as internal forces. This contribution outlines a big data literature review methodology to overview recognizable external changes and analyzes the interaction of one major trend—demographic change—further

  10. Assessment of the consequences of the radioactive contamination of aquatic media and biota. Model testing using Chernobyl data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kryshev, I.; Sazykina, T. [SPA Typhoon, Obninsk (Russian Federation); Hoffman, O.; Thiessen, K. [SENES, Oak Ridge, TN (United States)] [and others

    1996-09-01

    The 'Cooling Pond' scenario was designed to test models for radioactive contamination of aquatic ecosystems, based on data for contamination of different aquatic media and biota due to fallout of radionuclides into the cooling pond of the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant. Input data included characteristics of the cooling pond ecosystem (hydrological, hydrochemical, and hydro biological conditions) and estimates of the amounts of 137 Cs in the cooling pond. Predictions were requested in two stages: (1) Calculations of 137 Cs concentrations for comparison against actual measurements, including activities of 137 Cs in the cooling pond water, in layers of sediment, and in fish; (2) Calculations for which actual measurements are not available, including dose and risk estimates for aquatic biota and for humans following hypothetical consumption of contaminated biota. Calculations were performed with the following models: LAKECO (Netherlands), POSOD (USA), LAKEPOND (Romania), WATER (Russia), GIDRO (Russia), and ECOMOD-W (Russia). The total number of scenario calculations was 18. In general, the models tended to overestimate the total doses to fish (as compared to to independent dose estimates made from measured concentrations by the scenario authors) for internal and external exposure, while a number of predictions with different models for the effective dose and risk to humans from fish consumption were in good agreement with independent test estimates. The differences among model predictions were somewhat smaller for the total doses to fish than for the environmental concentrations used in the model testing. The differences among model predictions were very great for the effective doses and risk to humans from fish consumption. This is related to distinct errors in assessments of 137 Cs concentrations in fish. Very few participants obtained good agreement with respect to all criteria of the model testing, i.e., 137 Cs concentrations in the aquatic ecosystem

  11. Fragmentation of urban forms and the environmental consequences: results from a high-spatial resolution model system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, U. W.; Wang, Z. S.

    2008-10-01

    Each city has its unique urban form. The importance of urban form on sustainable development has been recognized in recent years. Traditionally, air quality modelling in a city is in a mesoscale with grid resolution of kilometers, regardless of its urban form. This paper introduces a GIS-based air quality and noise model system developed to study the built environment of highly compact urban forms. Compared with traditional mesoscale air quality model system, the present model system has a higher spatial resolution down to individual buildings along both sides of the street. Applying the developed model system in the Macao Peninsula with highly compact urban forms, the average spatial resolution of input and output data is as high as 174 receptor points per km2. Based on this input/output dataset with a high spatial resolution, this study shows that even the highly compact urban forms can be fragmented into a very small geographic scale of less than 3 km2. This is due to the significant temporal variation of urban development. The variation of urban form in each fragment in turn affects air dispersion, traffic condition, and thus air quality and noise in a measurable scale.

  12. A meso-scale model of the central and southern North Sea: Consequences of an improved resolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pohlmann, Thomas

    2006-12-01

    Results of a meso-scale model with a resolution of approximately 3 km of the central and southern North Sea are presented. The effect of the meso-scale resolution is depicted by comparing these results with data obtained from a 20 km resolution model. The validation of the model by means of observed SST data and of temperature data from a hydrographic transect demonstrates that the meso-scale model is able to reproduce the observations reasonably well. A comparison of the 3 km resolution results with 20 km results additionally shows that the large-scale model is not able to reproduce all the observed features of the SST with the same accuracy, in particular in the near-coastal areas along the Dutch and German coast. The parameters, which are investigated in more detail in this study, are temperature and salinity as well as the mean and eddy kinetic energy of the residual flow. The comparison between meso-scale and large-scale results demonstrates that not only the temperature and salinity distribution but also the kinetic energy is strongly affected by the chosen grid resolution. With respect to the generated mean kinetic energy of the residual flow the refined model resolution produces an increase up to 100% in the eastern parts of the North Sea, whereas in the Humber/Wash and Southern Bight region a decrease by up to 200% was obtained. In the northern part of the North Sea the finer resolution does not lead to large changes in the mean kinetic energy because here the large-scale features of the circulation dominate which also can be resolved by the large-scale model. This also explains that the mean kinetic energy differences between small- and large-scale model results are larger in summer than in winter because in winter due to the stronger winds the large-scale circulation is more dominant than in summer. The additional eddy kinetic energy of the residual flow (defined here as the kinetic energy contained in the spatial scales between 3 and 20 km) in general

  13. Consequence of nanofluid on peristaltic transport of a hyperbolic tangent fluid model in the occurrence of apt (tending) magnetic field

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akram, Safia; Nadeem, S.

    2014-05-01

    In the current study, sway of nanofluid on peristaltic transport of a hyperbolic tangent fluid model in the incidence of tending magnetic field has been argued. The governing equations of a nanofluid are first modeled and then simplified under lubrication approach. The coupled nonlinear equations of temperature and nano particle volume fraction are solved analytically using a homotopy perturbation technique. The analytical solution of the stream function and pressure gradient are carried out using perturbation technique. The graphical results of the problem under discussion are also being brought under consideration to see the behavior of various physical parameters.

  14. A model for emission from jets in X-ray binaries: consequences of a single acceleration episode

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    A. Pe'er; P. Casella

    2009-01-01

    There is strong evidence for powerful jets in the low/hard state of black hole X-ray binaries (BHXRBs). Here, we present a model in which electrons are accelerated once at the base of the jet, and are cooled by synchrotron emission and possible adiabatic energy losses. The accelerated electrons assu

  15. An Online Process Model of Second-Order Cultivation Effects: How Television Cultivates Materialism and Its Consequences for Life Satisfaction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shrum, L. J.; Lee, Jaehoon; Burroughs, James E.; Rindfleisch, Aric

    2011-01-01

    Two studies investigated the interrelations among television viewing, materialism, and life satisfaction, and their underlying processes. Study 1 tested an online process model for television's cultivation of materialism by manipulating level of materialistic content. Viewing level influenced materialism, but only among participants who reported…

  16. A psycho-economic model of ecstasy consumption and related consequences: a multi-site study with community samples.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdallah, Arbi Ben; Scheier, Lawrence M; Inciardi, James A; Copeland, Jan; Cottler, Linda B

    2007-01-01

    Becker and Murphy's (1988) theory of rational behavior suggests that economic factors play an influential role in the decision leading to drug consumption and possibly dependence. Psychological models, on the other hand, emphasize internal regulatory cues that motivate drug use and play a contributory role in dependence. Until now, the confluence of both economic and psychological models has not been tested empirically. The present study used latent-variable structural equation modeling (SEM) to examine the influence of both economic (social anomie, unit price, and time spent acquiring drugs) and psychological risk factors (motivation, depression, and sexual risk behaviors) on self-reported ecstasy use. Data were obtained from 612 recreational ecstasy users in the United States and Australia participating in a NIDA-funded epidemiological study examining trends in ecstasy use. The sample was mainly white (61%), male (58%), and young (mean age = 23 yrs [5.25]). All of the hypothesized latent constructs were statistically reliable and correlated in the expected direction. A saturated SEM indicated that monetary and opportunity cost, but not income, significantly predicted ecstasy use. Among the psychological measures, motivational cues were the strongest predictor of both use and dependence. Inclusion of gender, age, race, education, and site variables did not appreciably alter the final model parameters. The implications of incorporating the role of economic factors in shaping a more refined understanding of addiction are discussed. Suggestions for future research and study limitations are also noted.

  17. A new dynamic model for highly efficient mass transfer in aerated bioreactors and consequences for kLa identification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Müller, Stefan; Murray, Douglas B; Machne, Rainer

    2012-12-01

    Gas-liquid mass transfer is often rate-limiting in laboratory and industrial cultures of aerobic or autotrophic organisms. The volumetric mass transfer coefficient k(L) a is a crucial characteristic for comparing, optimizing, and upscaling mass transfer efficiency of bioreactors. Reliable dynamic models and resulting methods for parameter identification are needed for quantitative modeling of microbial growth dynamics. We describe a laboratory-scale stirred tank reactor (STR) with a highly efficient aeration system (k(L) a ≈ 570 h(-1)). The reactor can sustain yeast culture with high cell density and high oxygen uptake rate, leading to a significant drop in gas concentration from inflow to outflow (by 21%). Standard models fail to predict the observed mass transfer dynamics and to identify k(L) a correctly. In order to capture the concentration gradient in the gas phase, we refine a standard ordinary differential equation (ODE) model and obtain a system of partial integro-differential equations (PIDE), for which we derive an approximate analytical solution. Specific reactor configurations, in particular a relatively short bubble residence time, allow a quasi steady-state approximation of the PIDE system by a simpler ODE model which still accounts for the concentration gradient. Moreover, we perform an appropriate scaling of all variables and parameters. In particular, we introduce the dimensionless overall efficiency κ, which is more informative than k(L) a since it combines the effects of gas inflow, exchange, and solution. Current standard models of mass transfer in laboratory-scale aerated STRs neglect the gradient in the gas concentration, which arises from highly efficient bubbling systems and high cellular exchange rates. The resulting error in the identification of κ (and hence k(L) a) increases dramatically with increasing mass transfer efficiency. Notably, the error differs between cell-free and culture-based methods of parameter identification

  18. Multivariate probabilistic projections using imperfect climate models. Part II: robustness of methodological choices and consequences for climate sensitivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sexton, David M. H.; Murphy, James M.

    2012-06-01

    A method for providing probabilistic climate projections, which applies a Bayesian framework to information from a perturbed physics ensemble, a multimodel ensemble and observations, was demonstrated in an accompanying paper. This information allows us to account for the combined effects of more sources of uncertainty than in any previous study of the equilibrium response to doubled CO2 concentrations, namely parametric and structural modelling uncertainty, internal variability, and observational uncertainty. Such probabilistic projections are dependent on the climate models and observations used but also contain an element of expert judgement. Two expert choices in the methodology involve the amount of information used to (a) specify the effects of structural modelling uncertainty and (b) represent the observational metrics that constrain the probabilistic climate projections. These choices, effected by selecting how many multivariate eigenvectors of a large set of climate variables to retain in our analysis, are investigated in more detail. We also show sensitivity tests that explore a range of key expert choices. For changes in annual global mean temperature and regional changes over England and Wales and Northern Europe, the variations in the projections across the sensitivity studies are small compared to the overall uncertainty, demonstrating that the projections are robust to reasonable variations in key assumptions. We are therefore confident that, despite sampling sources of uncertainty more comprehensively than previously, the improved multivariate treatment of observational metrics has narrowed the probability distribution of climate sensitivity consistent with evidence currently available. Our 5th, 50th, and 95th percentiles are in the range 2.2-2.4, 3.2-3.3, and 4.1-4.5K, respectively. The main caveat is that the handling of structural uncertainty does not account for systematic errors common to the current set of climate models and finding methods to

  19. Market memory and fat tail consequences in option pricing on the expOU stochastic volatility model

    CERN Document Server

    Perello, J

    2006-01-01

    The expOU stochastic volatility model is capable of reproducing fairly well most important statistical properties of financial markets daily data. Among them, the presence of multiple time scales in the volatility autocorrelation is perhaps the most relevant which makes appear fat tails in the return distributions. This paper wants to go further on with the expOU model we have studied in Ref. 1 by exploring an aspect of practical interest. Having as a benchmark the parameters estimated from the Dow Jones daily data, we want to compute the price for the European option. This is actually done by Monte Carlo, running a large number of simulations. Our main interest is to "see" the effects of a long-range market memory from our expOU model in its subsequent European call option. We pay attention to the effects of the existence of a broad range of time scales in the volatility. We find that a richer set of time scales brings to a higher price of the option. This appears in clear contrast to the presence of memory ...

  20. Market memory and fat tail consequences in option pricing on the expOU stochastic volatility model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perelló, Josep

    2007-08-01

    The expOU stochastic volatility model is capable of reproducing fairly well most important statistical properties of financial markets daily data. Among them, the presence of multiple time scales in the volatility autocorrelation is perhaps the most relevant which makes appear fat tails in the return distributions. This paper wants to go further on with the expOU model we have studied in Ref. [J. Masoliver, J. Perelló, Quant. Finance 6 (2006) 423] by exploring an aspect of practical interest. Having as a benchmark the parameters estimated from the Dow Jones daily data, we want to compute the price for the European option. This is actually done by Monte Carlo, running a large number of simulations. Our main interest is to “see” the effects of a long-range market memory from our expOU model in its subsequent European call option. We pay attention to the effects of the existence of a broad range of time scales in the volatility. We find that a richer set of time scales brings the price of the option higher. This appears in clear contrast to the presence of memory in the price itself which makes the price of the option cheaper.

  1. Demographic Transformations of the Russian Regional Space

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elena Viktorovna Kurushina

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available The paper considers the transformations of the quantitative components of human capital, which is the main driver of economic growth in the material, institutional and mental space. According to the author’s concept of stratified space, the processes of self-reproduction and self-renewal of a system are carried out in the material space. This can be determined by the indicators of fertility, mortality and migration in the demographic subsystem. The process of self-regulation of a system on the basis of legislative acts and behavior patterns is carried out in the institutional space. Institutional transformations are also manifested in the implementation of federal target programs for socio-economic development, affecting the state of the demographic subsystem. The processes of self-reflection, self-determination and self-development are carried out in the mental space. Mental transformations in the demographic subsystem are manifested in the change of value orientations. In accordance with the system of values that are conceptualized in modern development strategies the authors define the following models of Man: Economic Man, Socio-Economic Man (who lives in agglomeration centers and at the periphery, Socio-Natural Man (Environmental Man and Householder Man and Innovative Man. Demographic shifts are investigated in 83 Russian regions on the determinants of birth rate and mortality. The analyzed period of transformation covers 2005 and 2012. Methods of matrix analysis are used to visualize the process of demographic shifts. The assessment of transformation of the stratified regional space spheres is given on the basis of the multifactor models of the population natural growth rate. The paper reveals the reduction in the level and variation of mortality rate, the increasing importance and differentiation of regions according to fertility rate, and the effectiveness of introducing the institution of maternity capital from a perspective of the

  2. A large 3D physical model: a tool to investigate the consequences of ground movements on the surface structures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hor B.

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available Soil subsidence of various extend and amplitude can result from the failure of underground cavities, whether natural (for example caused by the dissolution of rocks by underground water flow or man-made (such as mines. The impact of the ground movements on existing structures (houses, buildings, bridges, etc… is generally dramatic. A large small-scale physical model is developed in order to improve our understanding of the behaviour of the building subjected to ground subsidence or the collapse of cavities. We focus on the soil-structure interaction and on the mitigation techniques allowing reducing the vulnerability of the buildings (structures.

  3. Combining self-affirmation with the extended parallel process model: the consequences for motivation to eat more fruit and vegetables.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Napper, Lucy E; Harris, Peter R; Klein, William M P

    2014-01-01

    There is potential for fruitful integration of research using the Extended Parallel Process Model (EPPM) with research using Self-affirmation Theory. However, to date no studies have attempted to do this. This article reports an experiment that tests whether (a) the effects of a self-affirmation manipulation add to those of EPPM variables in predicting intentions to improve a health behavior and (b) self-affirmation moderates the relationship between EPPM variables and intentions. Participants (N = 80) were randomized to either a self-affirmation or control condition prior to receiving personally relevant health information about the risks of not eating at least five portions of fruit and vegetables per day. A hierarchical regression model revealed that efficacy, threat × efficacy, self-affirmation, and self-affirmation × efficacy all uniquely contributed to the prediction of intentions to eat at least five portions per day. Self-affirmed participants and those with higher efficacy reported greater motivation to change. Threat predicted intentions at low levels of efficacy, but not at high levels. Efficacy had a stronger relationship with intentions in the nonaffirmed condition than in the self-affirmed condition. The findings indicate that self-affirmation processes can moderate the impact of variables in the EPPM and also add to the variance explained. We argue that there is potential for integration of the two traditions of research, to the benefit of both.

  4. The impact of demographic change on intergenerational transfers via bequests

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emilio Zagheni

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Background: Transfers in the form of bequests have important implications for the intergenerational transmission of inequality. Demographic change has relevant consequences for the timing and size of bequests. For example, longer life implies that people receive bequests when they are older. Conversely, increasing generational length reduces the average age at which people are given bequests. Objective: We analyze the consequences of demographic change in the United States on timing over the life course when individuals receive an inheritance and on the size of bequests. Methods: We evaluate trends in life expectancy at the mean age at childbearing as a proxy for timing at receipt of bequests. We complement formal demographic analysis with empirical estimates from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID inheritance data for 1987-2010. Results: We find that the long-term trend of increasing age at receipt of bequests might have stalled, mainly because of changes in the timing of fertility. In the long term the upward trend in age at which people receive bequests may resume, as the expected linear gains in life expectancy will more than counteract recent increases in the mean age at childbearing. Conclusions: We showed that demographic change affects the size of bequests and the timing over the life course when people receive them. As the need for economic resources varies over the life cycle, changes in the timing at receipt of bequests may have a differential impact on wealth inequality and affect patterns of multigenerational transfers of resources.

  5. Education, Elderly Health, and Differential Population Aging in South Korea: A Demographic Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bongoh Kye

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Background: Population aging proceeds with other socioeconomic developments, including educational expansion. Improvements in educational attainment lead to changes in demographic behaviors such as assortative mating, fertility, and the intergenerational transmission of education, which change the health of the elderly and the education of their offspring generation. Objective: We examine such a jointly-changing process in South Korea. Methods: We apply a recursive demographic model (Mare and Maralani 2006 by using the Korean Longitudinal Study of Ageing (KLoSA. Results: First, improvements in education lead to improvements in health among the elderly. Intermediate demographic factors make positive contributions to this improvement. Second, improvements in education lead to a decline in the ratios of offspring to the elderly because better-educated people have fewer children. However, this decrease is not substantial. Third, improvements in education increase the ratio of college-educated offspring to the unhealthy elderly because of improvements in both offspring's education and elderly health. Conclusions: The results suggest that improvements in education change configurations of the elderly and their offspring's generations, mitigating the negative consequences of population aging, such as increasing burdens of elderly support.

  6. Plate Tectonic Consequences of competing models for the origin and history of the Banda Sea subducted oceanic lithosphere

    CERN Document Server

    Heine, Christian; McKay, Hamish; Müller, R Dietmar

    2012-01-01

    The Banda Arc, situated west of Irian Jaya and in the easternmost extension of the Sunda subduction zone system, reveals a characteristic bowl-shaped geometry in seismic tomographic images. This indicates that the oceanic lithosphere still remains attached to the surrounding continental margins of northern Australia and the Bird's Head microcontinent. Major controversies exist between authors proposing an allochthonous or autochthonous origin of the Bird's Head block. Either scenario has important implications for plate kinematic models aiming to reconstruct the tectonic evolution of the region and the late Jurassic seaoor spreading geometry of this now subducted Argo-Tanimbar-Seram (ATS) ocean basin. Wider implications affect the tectonic conguration of the Tethyan-Pacic realm, the distribution of plate boundaries as well as the shape and size of continental blocks which have been rifted off the northeastern Gondwana margin during the Late Jurassic and are now accreted to the SE Asia margin. We apply structu...

  7. Molecular Consequences of the SERPINH1/HSP47 Mutation in the Dachshund Natural Model of Osteogenesis Imperfecta.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindert, Uschi; Weis, Mary Ann; Rai, Jyoti; Seeliger, Frank; Hausser, Ingrid; Leeb, Tosso; Eyre, David; Rohrbach, Marianne; Giunta, Cecilia

    2015-07-17

    Osteogenesis imperfecta (OI) is a heritable connective tissue disease characterized by bone fragility and increased risk of fractures. Up to now, mutations in at least 18 genes have been associated with dominant and recessive forms of OI that affect the production or post-translational processing of procollagen or alter bone homeostasis. Among those, SERPINH1 encoding heat shock protein 47 (HSP47), a chaperone exclusive for collagen folding in the ER, was identified to cause a severe form of OI in dachshunds (L326P) as well as in humans (one single case with a L78P mutation). To elucidate the disease mechanism underlying OI in the dog model, we applied a range of biochemical assays to mutant and control skin fibroblasts as well as on bone samples. These experiments revealed that type I collagen synthesized by mutant cells had decreased electrophoretic mobility. Procollagen was retained intracellularly with concomitant dilation of ER cisternae and activation of the ER stress response markers GRP78 and phospho-eIF2α, thus suggesting a defect in procollagen processing. In line with the migration shift detected on SDS-PAGE of cell culture collagen, extracts of bone collagen from the OI dog showed a similar mobility shift, and on tandem mass spectrometry, the chains were post-translationally overmodified. The bone collagen had a higher content of pyridinoline than control dog bone. We conclude that the SERPINH1 mutation in this naturally occurring model of OI impairs how HSP47 acts as a chaperone in the ER. This results in abnormal post-translational modification and cross-linking of the bone collagen.

  8. The conditioned place preference test for assessing welfare consequences and potential refinements in a mouse bladder cancer model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roughan, John V; Coulter, Claire A; Flecknell, Paul A; Thomas, Huw D; Sufka, Kenneth J

    2014-01-01

    Most pre-clinical analgesic efficacy assays still involve nociceptive testing in rodents. This is despite concerns as to the relevance of these tests for evaluating the pain-preventative properties of drugs. More appropriate methods would target pain rather than nociception, but these are currently not available, so it remains unknown whether animal pain equates to the negatively affective and subjective/emotional state it causes in humans. Mouse cancer models are common despite the likelihood of substantial pain. We used Conditioned Place Preference (CPP) testing, assessments of thermal hyperalgesia and behaviour to determine the likelihood that MBT-2 bladder cancer impacts negatively on mouse welfare, such as by causing pain. There was no CPP to saline, but morphine preference in tumour bearing mice exceeded that seen in tumour-free controls. This occurred up to 10 days before the study end-point alongside reduced body weight, development of hyperalgesia and behaviour changes. These effects indicated mice experienced a negative welfare state caused by malaise (if not pain) before euthanasia. Due to the complexity of the assessments needed to demonstrate this, it is unlikely that this approach could be used for routine welfare assessment on a study-by-study basis. However, our results show mice in sufficiently similar studies are likely to benefit from more intensive severity assessment and re-evaluation of end-points with a view to implementing appropriate refinements. In this particular case, a refinement would have been to have euthanased mice at least 7 days earlier or possibly by provision of end-stage pain relief. CPP testing was found to be a helpful method to investigate the responses of mice to analgesics, possibly on a subjective level. These findings and those of other recent studies show it could be a valuable method of screening candidate analgesics for efficacy against cancer pain and possibly other pain or disease models.

  9. Measuring the effects of topically applied skin optical clearing agents and modeling the effects and consequences for laser therapies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verkruysse, Wim; Khan, Misbah; Choi, Bernard; Svaasand, Lars O.; Nelson, J. Stuart

    2005-04-01

    Human skin prepared with an optical clearing agent manifests reduced scattering as a result of de-hydration and refractive index matching. This has potentially large effects for laser therapies of several skin lesions such as port wine stain, hair removal and tattoo removal. With most topically applied clearing agents the clearing effect is limited because they penetrate poorly through the intact superficial skin layer (stratum corneum). Agent application modi other than topical are impractical and have limited the success of optical clearing in laser dermatology. In recent reports, however, a mixture of lipofylic and hydrofylic agents was shown to successfully penetrate through the intact stratum corneum layer which has raised new interest in this field. Immediately after application, the optical clearing effect is superficial and, as the agent diffuses through the skin, reduced scattering is manifested in deeper skin layers. For practical purposes as well as to maximize therapeutic success, it is important to quantify the reduced scattering as well as the trans-cutaneous transport dynamics of the agent. We determined the time and tissue depth resolved effects of optically cleared skin by inserting a microscopic reflector array in the skin. Depth dependent light intensity was measured by quantifying the signal of the reflector array with optical coherence tomography. A 1-dimensional mass diffusion model was used to estimate a trans-cutaneous transport diffusion constant for the clearing agent mixture. The results are used in Monte Carlo modeling to determine the optimal time of laser treatment after topical application of the optical clearing agent.

  10. SMART-ER: A Situation Model of Anticipated Response consequences in Tactical decisions in skill acquisition —Extended and Revised

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Markus eRaab

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available SMART (Situation Model of Anticipated Response consequences in tactical decisions describes the interaction of top-down and bottom-up processes in skill acquisition and thus the dynamic interaction of sensory and motor capacities in embodied cognition. The empirically validated, extended, and revised SMART-ER can now predict when specific dynamic interactions of top-down and bottom-up processes have a beneficial or detrimental effect on performance and learning depending on situational constraints. The model is empirically supported and proposes learning strategies for when situation complexity varies or time pressure is present. Experiments from expertise research in sports illustrate that neither bottom-up nor top-down processes are bad or good per se but their effects depend on personal and situational characteristics.

  11. Gender in Science and Engineering Faculties: Demographic Inertia Revisited.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicole R Thomas

    Full Text Available The under-representation of women on faculties of science and engineering is ascribed in part to demographic inertia, which is the lag between retirement of current faculty and future hires. The assumption of demographic inertia implies that, given enough time, gender parity will be achieved. We examine that assumption via a semi-Markov model to predict the future faculty, with simulations that predict the convergence demographic state. Our model shows that existing practices that produce gender gaps in recruitment, retention, and career progression preclude eventual gender parity. Further, we examine sensitivity of the convergence state to current gender gaps to show that all sources of disparity across the entire faculty career must be erased to produce parity: we cannot blame demographic inertia.

  12. Gender in Science and Engineering Faculties: Demographic Inertia Revisited.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, Nicole R; Poole, Daniel J; Herbers, Joan M

    2015-01-01

    The under-representation of women on faculties of science and engineering is ascribed in part to demographic inertia, which is the lag between retirement of current faculty and future hires. The assumption of demographic inertia implies that, given enough time, gender parity will be achieved. We examine that assumption via a semi-Markov model to predict the future faculty, with simulations that predict the convergence demographic state. Our model shows that existing practices that produce gender gaps in recruitment, retention, and career progression preclude eventual gender parity. Further, we examine sensitivity of the convergence state to current gender gaps to show that all sources of disparity across the entire faculty career must be erased to produce parity: we cannot blame demographic inertia.

  13. Using hierarchical linear modeling to explore predictors of pain after total hip and knee arthroplasty as a consequence of osteoarthritis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Halket, Ashley; Stratford, Paul W; Kennedy, Deborah M; Woodhouse, Linda J

    2010-02-01

    Hierarchical linear modeling was used to establish differences in, and the average pattern of, recovery of the pain subscale of the Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index (WOMAC) and 2 composite performance-specific measures of pain as well as to determine if significant individual variations exist in the growth curves for each measure. Predictors of postoperative pain were also of interest. One hundred forty-seven patients undergoing unilateral primary hip or knee arthroplasty completed 4 performance measures-self-paced 40-m walk, timed up and go, stair test, and 6-minute walk-and the WOMAC prearthroplasty and at multiple points in time between 2 and 27 weeks postarthroplasty. Although patients reported different levels of postoperative pain initially, similar recovery patterns were noted. Predictive variables were found to be site of joint arthroplasty and WOMAC prearthroplasty pain scores for the WOMAC pain subscale, the site of joint arthroplasty and sex for the first composite pain score, and sex for the second composite. 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. The consequences of heavy-tailed service time distribution on a basic queuing model and its performance indicators

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lina M. Rangel Martínez

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available Recent research showing theoretical generative models for heavy-tailed service time queues and its empirical validation implies the need for a better knowledge of the key performance indicators’ behavior under such assumption. The behavior of the average length of the queue ( and the average waiting-time (Wq were analyzed through simulation, varying system capacity, average service utilization factor ( ρ and the number of servers in the systems as parameters. Comparisons were also made with service times based on Poisson processes. The results showed more sensitive variations of Lq and Wq for heavy-tailed service times than for Poisson-based service times. Systems having a capacity of over 1,000 entities might be considered as being systems having infinity capacity and the number of servers has a greater importance in heavy-tailed ruled processes than in Poisson processes. There was a lack of adequacy of Lq and Wq as key performance indicators for heavy-tailed service times, lea- ding to unexpected and unstable results.

  15. An empirical test of the aggregation model of coexistence and consequences for competing container-dwelling mosquitoes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fader, Joseph E; Juliano, Steven A

    2013-02-01

    We investigated the aggregation model of coexistence as a potential mechanism explaining patterns of coexistence between container mosquitoes Aedes albopictus and Aedes aegypti in southern Florida, USA. Aedes aegypti coexists with the invasive A. albopictus in many locations despite being an inferior resource competitor under most conditions. In agreement with aggregation theory we observed significant intraspecific aggregation of A. albopictus in all six field sites sampled in southern Florida in 2009. Quantitative results suggest that larval distributions of A. albopictus across containers are sufficiently aggregated to permit persistence of the inferior competitor A. aegypti. We tested whether observed levels of A. albopictus aggregation would significantly improve A. aegypti population performance in a controlled laboratory competition experiment manipulating A. albopictus aggregation while holding mean densities constant. We quantified A. aegypti's estimated rate of population change for replicate, multi-container cohorts in response to increasing A. albopictus aggregation across the cohorts. Aedes albopictus aggregation treatments produced J statistics for aggregation that spanned the range observed in the field study. We demonstrate a positive linear relationship between intraspecific aggregation of the superior competitor A. albopictus and estimated rate of population change for cohorts of the inferior A. aegypti. Thus, aggregation of A. albopictus at levels comparable to those observed in nature appears to be sufficient to reduce significantly the competitive impact of A. albopictus on multi-container cohorts of A. aegypti, and may therefore contribute to local coexistence of these competitors.

  16. Development of a physiology-directed population pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic model for characterizing the impact of genetic and demographic factors on clopidogrel response in healthy adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Xi-Ling; Samant, Snehal; Lewis, Joshua P; Horenstein, Richard B; Shuldiner, Alan R; Yerges-Armstrong, Laura M; Peletier, Lambertus A; Lesko, Lawrence J; Schmidt, Stephan

    2016-01-20

    Clopidogrel (Plavix®), is a widely used antiplatelet agent, which shows high inter-individual variability in treatment response in patients following the standard dosing regimen. In this study, a physiology-directed population pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) model was developed based on clopidogrel and clopidogrel active metabolite (clop-AM) data from the PAPI and the PGXB2B studies using a step-wise approach in NONMEM (version 7.2). The developed model characterized the in vivo disposition of clopidogrel, its bioactivation into clop-AM in the liver and subsequent platelet aggregation inhibition in the systemic circulation reasonably well. It further allowed the identification of covariates that significantly impact clopidogrel's dose-concentration-response relationship. In particular, CYP2C19 intermediate and poor metabolizers converted 26.2% and 39.5% less clopidogrel to clop-AM, respectively, compared to extensive metabolizers. In addition, CES1 G143E mutation carriers have a reduced CES1 activity (82.9%) compared to wild-type subjects, which results in a significant increase in clop-AM formation. An increase in BMI was found to significantly decrease clopidogrel's bioactivation, whereas increased age was associated with increased platelet reactivity. Our PK/PD model analysis suggests that, in order to optimize clopidogrel dosing on a patient-by-patient basis, all of these factors have to be considered simultaneously, e.g. by using quantitative clinical pharmacology tools.

  17. Demographic Dynamics and the Empirics of Economic Growth

    OpenAIRE

    Michael Sarel

    1995-01-01

    This paper examines the effects of demographic dynamics on the measured rates of economic growth. First, it develops a model of production with labor productivity that varies with age. Second, it uses macroeconomic and demographic data to estimate the relative productivity of different age groups. Third, it constructs a panel database of effective labor supply in order to reflect the changing age-structure of the population. Fourth, it decomposes the historical measured growth rates into effe...

  18. SU-E-T-547: Modeling Biological Response to Proton Irradiation and Evaluating Its Potential Clinical Consequences

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Taleei, R; Peeler, C; Guan, F; Patel, D; Titt, U; Mirkovic, D; Grosshans, D; Mohan, R [Departments of Radiation Physics and Radiation Oncology, The University of Texas, MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, TX (United States)

    2015-06-15

    Purpose: In addition to physical uncertainties, proton therapy may also be associated with biologic uncertainties. Currently a generic RBE value of 1.1 is used for treatment planning. In this work the effects of variable RBE, in comparison to a fixed RBE, were evaluated by calculating the effective dose for proton treatments. Methods: The repair misrepair fixation (RMF) model was used to calculate variable proton RBEs. The RBE weighted spread-out Bragg peak (SOBP) dose in water phantom was calculated using Monte Carlo simulation and compared to 1.1 weighted SOBP dose. A head and neck proton treatment was used to evaluate the potential effects, by comparing the head and neck treatment plan computed with a commercial treatment planning system that incorporates fixed RBE of 1.1 and a Monte Carlo treatment planning system that incorporates variable RBE. Results: RBE calculations along the depth of SOBP showed that the RBE at the entrance is approximately 1 and reaches 1.1 near the center of the SOBP. However, in distal regions the RBE rises to higher values (up to 3.5 depending on the cell type). Comparison of commercial treatment plans using a fixed RBE of 1.1 and Monte Carlo using variable RBE showed noticeable differences in the effective dose distributions. Conclusion: The comparison of the treatment planning with fixed and variable RBE shows that using commercial treatment planning systems that incorporate fixed RBE (1.1) could Result in overestimation of the effective dose to part of head and neck target volumes, while underestimating the effective dose to the normal tissue beyond the tumor. The accurate variable RBE as a function of proton beam energy in patient should be incorporated in treatment planning to improve the accuracy of effective dose calculation.

  19. Spanish flu, Asian flu, Hong Kong flu, and seasonal influenza in Japan under social and demographic influence: review and analysis using the two-population model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoshikura, Hiroshi

    2014-01-01

    When cumulative numbers of patients (X) and deaths (Y) associated with an influenza epidemic are plotted using the log-log scale, the plots fall on an ascending straight line generally expressed as logY = k(logX - logN0). For the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic, the slope k was ~0.6 for Mexico and ~2 for other countries. The two-population model was proposed to explain this phenomenon (Yoshikura H. Jpn J Infect Dis. 2012;65:279-88; Yoshikura H. Jpn J Infect Dis. 2009;62:411-2; and Yoshikura H. Jpn J Infect Dis. 2009;62:482-4). The current article reviews and analyzes previous influenza epidemics in Japan to examine whether the two-population model is applicable to them. The slope k was found to be ~2 for the Spanish flu during 1918-1920 and the Asian flu during 1957-1958, and ~1 for the Hong Kong flu and seasonal influenza prior to 1960-1961; however, k was ~0.6 for seasonal influenza after 1960-1961. This transition of the slope k of seasonal influenza plots from ~1 to ~0.6 corresponded to the shift in influenza mortality toward the older age groups and a drastic reduction in infant mortality rates due to improvements in the standard of living during the 1950s and 1960s. All the above observations could be well explained by reconstitution of the influenza epidemic based on the two-population model.

  20. [Demographic analysis of family-related life cycles of Austrian women: a multidimensional model of marriage, fertility, and divorce behavior in the years 1976-1986].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aufhauser, E; Lutz, W

    1989-01-01

    Summary results are presented from a research project designed to investigate the family life cycle of Austrian women by using a multidimensional model of marriage, fertility, and divorce. Data are from the 1976 and 1986 microcensuses. Topics discussed include the impact of illegitimate birth on women's future marital status, the relationship between number of children and the probability of divorce and of remarriage, the average number of years spent in different phases of the family life cycle, and the implications of current behavior patterns for future family structure in Austria.

  1. Chiropractors in Finland – a demographic survey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Malmqvist Stefan

    2008-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The Finnish chiropractic profession is young and not fully accepted by Finnish healthcare authorities. The demographic profile and style of practice has not been described to date. However, as the profession seems to be under rapid development, it would be of interest to stakeholders, both chiropractic and political, to obtain a baseline description of this profession with a view to the development of future goals and strategies for the profession. The purpose of this study was to describe the chiropractic profession in Finland in relation to its demographic background, the demographics of their clinics, practice patterns, interactions with other health care practitioners and some of the professions' plans for the future. Methods A structured questionnaire survey was conducted in 2005, in which all 50 members of the Finnish Chiropractic Union were invited to participate. Results In all, 44 questionnaires were returned (response rate 88%. Eighty percent of the respondents were men, and 77% were aged 30 to 44 years old, most of whom graduated after 1990 with either a university-based bachelors' or masters' degree in chiropractic. Solo practice was their main practice pattern. The vast majority described their scope of practice to be based on a musculoskeletal approach, using the Diversified Technique, performing Soft Tissue Therapy and about two-thirds also used an Activator Instrument (mechanical adjusting instrument. The mean number of patient visits reported to have been seen weekly was 59 of which nine were new patients. Most practitioners found this number of patients satisfactory. At the initial consultation, 80% of respondents spent 30–45 minutes with their patients, 75% spent 20–30 minutes with "new old" patients and on subsequent visits 80% of respondents spent 15–30 minutes. Interactions with other health care professions were reasonably good and most of chiropractors intended to remain within the profession

  2. Golden Eagle fatalities and the continental-scale consequences of local wind-energy generation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katzner, Todd E; Nelson, David M; Braham, Melissa A; Doyle, Jacqueline M; Fernandez, Nadia B; Duerr, Adam E; Bloom, Peter H; Fitzpatrick, Matthew C; Miller, Tricia A; Culver, Renee C E; Braswell, Loan; DeWoody, J Andrew

    2017-04-01

    Renewable energy production is expanding rapidly despite mostly unknown environmental effects on wildlife and habitats. We used genetic and stable isotope data collected from Golden Eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) killed at the Altamont Pass Wind Resource Area (APWRA) in California in demographic models to test hypotheses about the geographic extent and demographic consequences of fatalities caused by renewable energy facilities. Geospatial analyses of δ(2) H values obtained from feathers showed that ≥25% of these APWRA-killed eagles were recent immigrants to the population, most from long distances away (>100 km). Data from nuclear genes indicated this subset of immigrant eagles was genetically similar to birds identified as locals from the δ(2) H data. Demographic models implied that in the face of this mortality, the apparent stability of the local Golden Eagle population was maintained by continental-scale immigration. These analyses demonstrate that ecosystem management decisions concerning the effects of local-scale renewable energy can have continental-scale consequences.

  3. Golden Eagle fatalities and the continental-scale consequences of local wind-energy generation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katzner, Todd E.; Nelson, David M.; Braham, Melissa; Doyle, Jacqueline M.; Fernandez, Nadia B.; Duerr, Adam E.; Bloom, Peter H.; Fitzpatrick, Matthew C.; Miller, Tricia A.; Culver, Renee C. E.; Braswell, Loan; DeWoody, J. Andrew

    2017-01-01

    Renewable energy production is expanding rapidly despite mostly unknown environmental effects on wildlife and habitats. We used genetic and stable isotope data collected from Golden Eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) killed at the Altamont Pass Wind Resource Area (APWRA) in California in demographic models to test hypotheses about the geographic extent and demographic consequences of fatalities caused by renewable energy facilities. Geospatial analyses of δ2H values obtained from feathers showed that ≥25% of these APWRA-killed eagles were recent immigrants to the population, most from long distances away (>100 km). Data from nuclear genes indicated this subset of immigrant eagles was genetically similar to birds identified as locals from the δ2H data. Demographic models implied that in the face of this mortality, the apparent stability of the local Golden Eagle population was maintained by continental-scale immigration. These analyses demonstrate that ecosystem management decisions concerning the effects of local-scale renewable energy can have continental-scale consequences.

  4. Chronological objects in demographic research

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frans J. Willekens

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND Calendar time, age and duration are chronological objects. They represent an instant or a time period. Age and duration are usually expressed in units with varying lengths. The number of days in a month or a year depends on the position on the calendar. The units are also not homogeneous and the structure influences measurement. One solution, common in demography, is to use units that are large enough for the results not to be seriously affected by differences in length and structure. Another approach is to take the idiosyncrasy of calendars into account and to work directly with calendar dates. The technology that enables logical and arithmetic operations on dates is available. OBJECTIVE To illustrate logical and arithmetic operations on dates and conversions between time measurements. METHODS Software packages include utilities to process dates. I use existing and a few new utilities in R to illustrate operations on dates and conversions between calendar dates and elapsed time since a reference moment or a reference event. Three demographic applications are presented. The first is the impact of preferences for dates and days on demographic indicators. The second is event history analysis with time-varying covariates. The third is microsimulation of life histories in continuous time. CONCLUSIONS The technology exists to perform operations directly on dates, enabling more precise calculations of duration and elapsed time in demographic analysis. It eliminates the need for (a approximations and (b transformations of dates, such as Century Month Code, that are convenient for computing durations but are a barrier to interpretation. Operations on dates, such as the computation of age, should consider time units of varying length.

  5. Seismic Consequence Abstraction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    M. Gross

    2004-10-25

    The primary purpose of this model report is to develop abstractions for the response of engineered barrier system (EBS) components to seismic hazards at a geologic repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, and to define the methodology for using these abstractions in a seismic scenario class for the Total System Performance Assessment - License Application (TSPA-LA). A secondary purpose of this model report is to provide information for criticality studies related to seismic hazards. The seismic hazards addressed herein are vibratory ground motion, fault displacement, and rockfall due to ground motion. The EBS components are the drip shield, the waste package, and the fuel cladding. The requirements for development of the abstractions and the associated algorithms for the seismic scenario class are defined in ''Technical Work Plan For: Regulatory Integration Modeling of Drift Degradation, Waste Package and Drip Shield Vibratory Motion and Seismic Consequences'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 171520]). The development of these abstractions will provide a more complete representation of flow into and transport from the EBS under disruptive events. The results from this development will also address portions of integrated subissue ENG2, Mechanical Disruption of Engineered Barriers, including the acceptance criteria for this subissue defined in Section 2.2.1.3.2.3 of the ''Yucca Mountain Review Plan, Final Report'' (NRC 2003 [DIRS 163274]).

  6. Evolutionary shaping of demographic schedules

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wachter, Kenneth W.; Steinsaltz, David; Evans, Steven N.

    2014-01-01

    Evolutionary processes of natural selection may be expected to leave their mark on age patterns of survival and reproduction. Demographic theory includes three main strands—mutation accumulation, stochastic vitality, and optimal life histories. This paper reviews the three strands and, concentrating on mutation accumulation, extends a mathematical result with broad implications concerning the effect of interactions between small age-specific effects of deleterious mutant alleles. Empirical data from genomic sequencing along with prospects for combining strands of theory hold hope for future progress. PMID:25024186

  7. A GIS-based model to estimate flood consequences and the degree of accessibility and operability of strategic emergency response structures in urban areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albano, R.; Sole, A.; Adamowski, J.; Mancusi, L.

    2014-11-01

    Efficient decision-making regarding flood risk reduction has become a priority for authorities and stakeholders in many European countries. Risk analysis methods and techniques are a useful tool for evaluating costs and benefits of possible interventions. Within this context, a methodology to estimate flood consequences was developed in this paper that is based on GIS, and integrated with a model that estimates the degree of accessibility and operability of strategic emergency response structures in an urban area. The majority of the currently available approaches do not properly analyse road network connections and dependencies within systems, and as such a loss of roads could cause significant damages and problems to emergency services in cases of flooding. The proposed model is unique in that it provides a maximum-impact estimation of flood consequences on the basis of the operability of the strategic emergency structures in an urban area, their accessibility, and connection within the urban system of a city (i.e. connection between aid centres and buildings at risk), in the emergency phase. The results of a case study in the Puglia region in southern Italy are described to illustrate the practical applications of this newly proposed approach. The main advantage of the proposed approach is that it allows for defining a hierarchy between different infrastructure in the urban area through the identification of particular components whose operation and efficiency are critical for emergency management. This information can be used by decision-makers to prioritize risk reduction interventions in flood emergencies in urban areas, given limited financial resources.

  8. Population-level consequences of antipredator behavior: a metaphysiological model based on the functional ecology of the leaf-eared mouse.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramos-Jiliberto, Rodrigo; González-Olivares, Eduardo; Bozinovic, Francisco

    2002-08-01

    We present a predator-prey metaphysiological model, based on the available behavioral and physiological information of the sigmodontine rodent Phyllotis darwini. The model is focused on the population-level consequences of the antipredator behavior, performed by the rodent population, which is assumed to be an inducible response of predation avoidance. The decrease in vulnerability is explicitly considered to have two associated costs: a decreasing foraging success and an increasing metabolic loss. The model analysis was carried out on a reduced form of the system by means of numerical and analytical tools. We evaluated the stability properties of equilibrium points in the phase plane, and carried out bifurcation analyses of rodent equilibrium density under varying conditions of three relevant parameters. The bifurcation parameters chosen represent predator avoidance effectiveness (A), foraging cost of antipredator behavior (C(1)'), and activity-metabolism cost (C(4)'). Our analysis suggests that the trade-offs involved in antipredator behavior plays a fundamental role in the stability properties of the system. Under conditions of high foraging cost, stability decreases as antipredator effectiveness increases. Under the complementary scenario (not considering the highest foraging costs), the equilibria are either stable when both costs are low, or unstable when both costs are higher, independent of antipredator effectiveness. No evidence of stabilizing effects of antipredator behavior was found.

  9. Composite likelihood estimation of demographic parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Garrigan Daniel

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Most existing likelihood-based methods for fitting historical demographic models to DNA sequence polymorphism data to do not scale feasibly up to the level of whole-genome data sets. Computational economies can be achieved by incorporating two forms of pseudo-likelihood: composite and approximate likelihood methods. Composite likelihood enables scaling up to large data sets because it takes the product of marginal likelihoods as an estimator of the likelihood of the complete data set. This approach is especially useful when a large number of genomic regions constitutes the data set. Additionally, approximate likelihood methods can reduce the dimensionality of the data by summarizing the information in the original data by either a sufficient statistic, or a set of statistics. Both composite and approximate likelihood methods hold promise for analyzing large data sets or for use in situations where the underlying demographic model is complex and has many parameters. This paper considers a simple demographic model of allopatric divergence between two populations, in which one of the population is hypothesized to have experienced a founder event, or population bottleneck. A large resequencing data set from human populations is summarized by the joint frequency spectrum, which is a matrix of the genomic frequency spectrum of derived base frequencies in two populations. A Bayesian Metropolis-coupled Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMCMC method for parameter estimation is developed that uses both composite and likelihood methods and is applied to the three different pairwise combinations of the human population resequence data. The accuracy of the method is also tested on data sets sampled from a simulated population model with known parameters. Results The Bayesian MCMCMC method also estimates the ratio of effective population size for the X chromosome versus that of the autosomes. The method is shown to estimate, with reasonable

  10. Spatial Associations Between Contaminated Land and Socio Demographics in Ghana.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dowling, Russell; Ericson, Bret; Caravanos, Jack; Grigsby, Patrick; Amoyaw-Osei, Yaw

    2015-10-27

    Associations between contaminated land and socio demographics are well documented in high-income countries. In low- and middle-income countries, however, little is known about the extent of contaminated land and possible demographic correlations. This is an important yet sparsely researched topic with potentially significant public health implications as exposure to pollution remains a leading source of morbidity and mortality in low-income countries. In this study, we review the associations between several socio demographic factors (population, population density, unemployment, education, and literacy) and contaminated sites in Ghana. Within this context, both correlation and association intend to show the relationship between two variables, namely contaminated sites and socio demographics. Aggregated district level 2010 census data from Ghana Statistical Service and contaminated site location data from Pure Earth's Toxic Sites Identification Program (TSIP) were spatially evaluated using the number of sites per kilometer squared within districts as the unit of measurement. We found a low to medium positive correlation (ρ range: 0.285 to 0.478) between contaminated sites and the following socio demographics: higher population density, higher unemployment, greater education, and higher literacy rate. These results support previous studies and suggest that several socio demographic factors may be reasonably accurate predictors of contaminated site locations. More research and targeted data collection is needed to better understand these associations with the ultimate goal of developing a predictive model.

  11. Spatial Associations Between Contaminated Land and Socio Demographics in Ghana

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Russell Dowling

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Associations between contaminated land and socio demographics are well documented in high-income countries. In low- and middle-income countries, however, little is known about the extent of contaminated land and possible demographic correlations. This is an important yet sparsely researched topic with potentially significant public health implications as exposure to pollution remains a leading source of morbidity and mortality in low-income countries. In this study, we review the associations between several socio demographic factors (population, population density, unemployment, education, and literacy and contaminated sites in Ghana. Within this context, both correlation and association intend to show the relationship between two variables, namely contaminated sites and socio demographics. Aggregated district level 2010 census data from Ghana Statistical Service and contaminated site location data from Pure Earth’s Toxic Sites Identification Program (TSIP were spatially evaluated using the number of sites per kilometer squared within districts as the unit of measurement. We found a low to medium positive correlation (ρ range: 0.285 to 0.478 between contaminated sites and the following socio demographics: higher population density, higher unemployment, greater education, and higher literacy rate. These results support previous studies and suggest that several socio demographic factors may be reasonably accurate predictors of contaminated site locations. More research and targeted data collection is needed to better understand these associations with the ultimate goal of developing a predictive model.

  12. DEMOGRAPHIC FACTOR OF ECOLOGICAL POLICY

    OpenAIRE

    2015-01-01

    Demographic factor of ecological policy is analyzed. Анализируется демографическая составляющая экологической политики. Аналізується демографічна складова екологічної політики.

  13. SELECTED DETERMINANTS OF DEMOGRAPHIC SAFETY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stanisława Ostasiewicz

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The article presents, in a simplifi ed manner, selected theories of population to explain the current trends of population development in Poland and throughout the world. The aim of the article is to present the demographic threats that have emerged in the last eighty years. Prognosticated age structures have also been predicted. Signifi cant diff erences between the structure of the population now and the future have been indicated, particularly regarding the ageing of the population. Against the background of global transformations analyzes of changes in Poland have been conducted. The comparison shows that changes in Poland are highly analogous to transformations around the world, such as declining birth rates and increasing life expectancy. These changes cause ageing of the population, which could result in the collapse of the functioning of the labor market and the pension system as it currently exists.

  14. Spatially Analyzing the Inequity of the Hong Kong Urban Heat Island by Socio-Demographic Characteristics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong, Man Sing; Peng, Fen; Zou, Bin; Shi, Wen Zhong; Wilson, Gaines J

    2016-03-12

    Recent studies have suggested that some disadvantaged socio-demographic groups face serious environmental-related inequities in Hong Kong due to the rising ambient urban temperatures. Identifying heat-vulnerable groups and locating areas of Surface Urban Heat Island (SUHI) inequities is thus important for prioritizing interventions to mitigate death/illness rates from heat. This study addresses this problem by integrating methods of remote sensing retrieval, logistic regression modelling, and spatial autocorrelation. In this process, the SUHI effect was first estimated from the Land Surface Temperature (LST) derived from a Landsat image. With the scale assimilated to the SUHI and socio-demographic data, a logistic regression model was consequently adopted to ascertain their relationships based on Hong Kong Tertiary Planning Units (TPUs). Lastly, inequity "hotspots" were derived using spatial autocorrelation methods. Results show that disadvantaged socio-demographic groups were significantly more prone to be exposed to an intense SUHI effect: over half of 287 TPUs characterized by age groups of 60+ years, secondary and matriculation education attainment, widowed, divorced and separated, low and middle incomes, and certain occupation groups of workers, have significant Odds Ratios (ORs) larger than 1.2. It can be concluded that a clustering analysis stratified by age, income, educational attainment, marital status, and occupation is an effective way to detect the inequity hotspots of SUHI exposure. Additionally, inequities explored using income, marital status and occupation factors were more significant than the age and educational attainment in these areas. The derived maps and model can be further analyzed in urban/city planning, in order to mitigate the physical and social causes of the SUHI effect.

  15. Spatially Analyzing the Inequity of the Hong Kong Urban Heat Island by Socio-Demographic Characteristics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong, Man Sing; Peng, Fen; Zou, Bin; Shi, Wen Zhong; Wilson, Gaines J.

    2016-01-01

    Recent studies have suggested that some disadvantaged socio-demographic groups face serious environmental-related inequities in Hong Kong due to the rising ambient urban temperatures. Identifying heat-vulnerable groups and locating areas of Surface Urban Heat Island (SUHI) inequities is thus important for prioritizing interventions to mitigate death/illness rates from heat. This study addresses this problem by integrating methods of remote sensing retrieval, logistic regression modelling, and spatial autocorrelation. In this process, the SUHI effect was first estimated from the Land Surface Temperature (LST) derived from a Landsat image. With the scale assimilated to the SUHI and socio-demographic data, a logistic regression model was consequently adopted to ascertain their relationships based on Hong Kong Tertiary Planning Units (TPUs). Lastly, inequity “hotspots” were derived using spatial autocorrelation methods. Results show that disadvantaged socio-demographic groups were significantly more prone to be exposed to an intense SUHI effect: over half of 287 TPUs characterized by age groups of 60+ years, secondary and matriculation education attainment, widowed, divorced and separated, low and middle incomes, and certain occupation groups of workers, have significant Odds Ratios (ORs) larger than 1.2. It can be concluded that a clustering analysis stratified by age, income, educational attainment, marital status, and occupation is an effective way to detect the inequity hotspots of SUHI exposure. Additionally, inequities explored using income, marital status and occupation factors were more significant than the age and educational attainment in these areas. The derived maps and model can be further analyzed in urban/city planning, in order to mitigate the physical and social causes of the SUHI effect. PMID:26985899

  16. Spatially Analyzing the Inequity of the Hong Kong Urban Heat Island by Socio-Demographic Characteristics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Man Sing Wong

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Recent studies have suggested that some disadvantaged socio-demographic groups face serious environmental-related inequities in Hong Kong due to the rising ambient urban temperatures. Identifying heat-vulnerable groups and locating areas of Surface Urban Heat Island (SUHI inequities is thus important for prioritizing interventions to mitigate death/illness rates from heat. This study addresses this problem by integrating methods of remote sensing retrieval, logistic regression modelling, and spatial autocorrelation. In this process, the SUHI effect was first estimated from the Land Surface Temperature (LST derived from a Landsat image. With the scale assimilated to the SUHI and socio-demographic data, a logistic regression model was consequently adopted to ascertain their relationships based on Hong Kong Tertiary Planning Units (TPUs. Lastly, inequity “hotspots” were derived using spatial autocorrelation methods. Results show that disadvantaged socio-demographic groups were significantly more prone to be exposed to an intense SUHI effect: over half of 287 TPUs characterized by age groups of 60+ years, secondary and matriculation education attainment, widowed, divorced and separated, low and middle incomes, and certain occupation groups of workers, have significant Odds Ratios (ORs larger than 1.2. It can be concluded that a clustering analysis stratified by age, income, educational attainment, marital status, and occupation is an effective way to detect the inequity hotspots of SUHI exposure. Additionally, inequities explored using income, marital status and occupation factors were more significant than the age and educational attainment in these areas. The derived maps and model can be further analyzed in urban/city planning, in order to mitigate the physical and social causes of the SUHI effect.

  17. An evaluation of the relations between flow regime components, stream characteristics, species traits and meta-demographic rates of warmwater stream fishes: Implications for aquatic resource management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peterson, James T.; Shea, C.P.

    2015-01-01

    Fishery biologists are increasingly recognizing the importance of considering the dynamic nature of streams when developing streamflow policies. Such approaches require information on how flow regimes influence the physical environment and how those factors, in turn, affect species-specific demographic rates. A more cost-effective alternative could be the use of dynamic occupancy models to predict how species are likely to respond to changes in flow. To appraise the efficacy of this approach, we evaluated relative support for hypothesized effects of seasonal streamflow components, stream channel characteristics, and fish species traits on local extinction, colonization, and recruitment (meta-demographic rates) of stream fishes. We used 4 years of seasonal fish collection data from 23 streams to fit multistate, multiseason occupancy models for 42 fish species in the lower Flint River Basin, Georgia. Modelling results suggested that meta-demographic rates were influenced by streamflows, particularly short-term (10-day) flows. Flow effects on meta-demographic rates also varied with stream size, channel morphology, and fish species traits. Small-bodied species with generalized life-history characteristics were more resilient to flow variability than large-bodied species with specialized life-history characteristics. Using this approach, we simplified the modelling framework, thereby facilitating the development of dynamic, spatially explicit evaluations of the ecological consequences of water resource development activities over broad geographic areas. Published 2014. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

  18. Coupling Longitudinal Data and Multilevel Modeling to Examine the Antecedents and Consequences of Jealousy Experiences in Romantic Relationships: A Test of the Relational Turbulence Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Theiss, Jennifer A.; Solomon, Denise Haunani

    2006-01-01

    We used longitudinal data and multilevel modeling to examine how intimacy, relational uncertainty, and failed attempts at interdependence influence emotional, cognitive, and communicative responses to romantic jealousy, and how those experiences shape subsequent relationship characteristics. The relational turbulence model (Solomon & Knobloch,…

  19. Demographic Ageing on Croatian Islands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivo Nejašmić

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper analyses the changes in the population structure of the Croatian islands by age, warns of the degree of ageing, provides spatial differentiation of this process and presents perspective of ageing at the level of settlement. Typing of population ageing is based on scores and has seven types. The total island population in 2011 belongs to the type 5 – very old population. Almost a half of the settlements (out of 303 have been affected by the highest levels of ageing (types 6 and 7. It was found that a quarter of island settlements will become “dead villages” in a foreseeable future; most of them are on small islands but also in the interior of larger islands. These are villages decaying in every respect, in which the way of life, as we know it, veins and goes out. The present ageing villagers are their last residents in most cases. Eve¬rything suggests that demographic recovery of the islands is not possible with the forces in situ. It is important to strike a balance between the needs and opportunities in order to successfully organize life on the islands, both small and large ones, and the fact is that there is a continuing disparity, which is especially profound in small islands. A sensitive and selective approach is needed to overcome the unfavourable demographic trends. Therefore it is necessary to respect the particularities of indi¬vidual islands and island groups in devising development strategy. Solutions to the problems must come of the local and wider community in synergy with relevant professional and scientific institutions. However, if the solutions are not found or measures do not give results, if the islands are left to desorganisation and senilisation, a part of the islands will become a wasteland. With regard to the value of this area whose wealth are people in the first place, this would be an intolerable civilization decline.

  20. Consequences of the loss of the Grainyhead-like 1 gene for renal gene expression, regulation of blood pressure and heart rate in a mouse model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pawlak, Magdalena; Walkowska, Agnieszka; Mlącki, Michał; Pistolic, Jelena; Wrzesiński, Tomasz; Benes, Vladimir; Jane, Stephen M; Wesoły, Joanna; Kompanowska-Jezierska, Elżbieta; Wilanowski, Tomasz

    2015-01-01

    The Grainyhead-like 1 (GRHL1) transcription factor is tissue-specific and is very highly expressed in the kidney. In humans the GRHL1 gene is located at the chromosomal position 2p25. A locus conferring increased susceptibility to essential hypertension has been mapped to 2p25 in two independent studies, but the causative gene has never been identified. Furthermore, a statistically significant association has been found between a polymorphism in the GRHL1 gene and heart rate regulation. The aim of our study was to investigate the physiological consequences of Grhl1 loss in a mouse model and ascertain whether Grhl1 may be involved in the regulation of blood pressure and heart rate. In our research we employed the Grhl1 "knock-out" mouse strain. We analyzed renal gene expression, blood pressure and heart rate in the Grhl1-null mice in comparison with their "wild-type" littermate controls. Most important results: The expression of many genes is altered in the Grhl1(-/-) kidneys. Some of these genes have previously been linked to blood pressure regulation. Despite this, the Grhl1-null mice have normal blood pressure and interestingly, increased heart rate. Our work did not discover any new evidence to suggest any involvement of Grhl1 in blood pressure regulation. However, we determined that the loss of Grhl1 influences the regulation of heart rate in a mouse model.

  1. Ecological and Socio-Economic Modeling of Consequences of Biological Management Scenarios Implementation in Integrated Watershed Management (Case Study: Simindasht Catchment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. R. Keshtkar

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Integrated watershed management is considered as a new principle for development planning and management of water and soil resources emphasizing on socio-economic characteristics of the region to sustainable livelihoods without vulnerability for plants and the residents of an area. This research, in line with the objectives of integrated management, has been carried out for modelling and evaluating the effects of ecological, socio-economic consequences resulting from the implementation of the proposed management plans on the vegetation changes with a focus on the problems in Simindasht catchment, located in Semnan and Tehran Provinces. After standardization of indices by distance method and weighing them, the scenarios were prioritized using multi-criteria decision-making technique. Trade-off analysis of the results indicates that in the integrated management of Simindasht catchment more than one single management solution, covering all aspects of the system can be recommended in different weighting approaches. The approach used herein, considering the results of different models and comparing the results, is an efficient tool to represent the watershed system as a whole and to facilitate decision making for integrated watershed management.

  2. Economic consequences of the adverse reactions related with antipsychotics: an economic model comparing tolerability of ziprasidone, olanzapine, risperidone, and haloperidol in Spain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bobes, Julio; Cañas, Fernando; Rejas, Javier; Mackell, Joan

    2004-12-01

    Frequency of adverse reactions (ARs) related with antipsychotics usage is high. Along with clinical implications, economic impact might be important. The purpose of this study was to model the economic consequences of ARs related with ziprasidone, olanzapine, risperidone, and haloperidol in Spain, by means of a cost-effectiveness model developed using a Markov modeling approach. The model simulated treatment of a cohort of 1000 schizophrenics for 12 months, initiating treatment with one of four antipsychotic drugs; haloperidol, risperidone, olanzapine and ziprasidone. Conditional probabilities of developing any of four adverse events were calculated. Treatment was modified (decrease dose, switch medication) according to incidence of ARs and physician judgments, obtained from a local cross-sectional study and clinical trials previously published. The analysis was conducted in year 2002 from a third party payer perspective. Results are shown as annual cost per month with psychotic symptoms controlled and included univariate sensitivity analysis. The therapeutic strategy starting with ziprasidone showed the lower costs and the greater number of months with symptoms controlled in most scenarios evaluated versus the other options considered, although the differences were weak: 9.6, 9.3, 9.5 and 9.5 controlled months per patient in base scenario, with annual cost per patient per month with symptoms controlled of 1035 Euros, 1084 Euros, 1087 Euros and 1090 Euros for ziprasidone, haloperidol, risperidone and olanzapine, respectively. Results were robust to one-way sensitivity analysis. Despite the unlike drug prices of antipsychotics, a considerable economic impact due to adverse reactions was seen in our setting. These results should be taken into account by health decision makers and clinicians in the management of patients with schizophrenia.

  3. Cassini Spacecraft Uncertainty Analysis Data and Methodology Review and Update/Volume 1: Updated Parameter Uncertainty Models for the Consequence Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    WHEELER, TIMOTHY A.; WYSS, GREGORY D.; HARPER, FREDERICK T.

    2000-11-01

    Uncertainty distributions for specific parameters of the Cassini General Purpose Heat Source Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generator (GPHS-RTG) Final Safety Analysis Report consequence risk analysis were revised and updated. The revisions and updates were done for all consequence parameters for which relevant information exists from the joint project on Probabilistic Accident Consequence Uncertainty Analysis by the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Commission of European Communities.

  4. The Demographic Crisis and Global Migration - Selected Issues

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frątczak, Ewa Zofia

    2016-01-01

    Currently the world is undergoing a serious demographic shift, characterised by slowing population growth in developed countries. However, the population in certain less-developed regions of the world is still increasing. According to UN data, as of 2015, (World...2015), 244 million people (or 3.3% of the global population) lived outside their country of birth. While most of these migrants travel abroad looking for better economic and social conditions, there are also those forced to move by political crises, revolutions and war. Such migration is being experienced currently in Europe, a continent which is thus going through both a demographic crisis related to the low fertility rate and population ageing, and a migration crisis. Global migrations link up inseparably with demographic transformation processes taking place globally and resulting in the changing tempo of population growth. Attracting and discouraging migration factors are changing at the same time, as is the scale and range of global migration, and with these also the global consequences. The focus of work addressed in this paper is on global population, the demographic transformation and the role of global migrations, as well as the range and scale of international migration, and selected aspects of global migrations including participation in the global labour market, the scale of monetary transfers (remittances) and the place of global migration in the UN 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development (Transforming...2015) and the Europe of two crises (Domeny 2016).

  5. [Integration of demographic variables into development plans in the Sahel].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wane, H R

    1992-07-01

    A founding principle of the Program of Action of N'Djamena is the interdependence of population and development and the need for development strategies to take demographic factors into account. The concept of integration of population variables into development has evolved since its introduction in the 1974 World Population Plan of Action from a simple description of population size, growth rates, and distribution to a stress on harmonizing population policies and development policies with macroeconomic variables. The essence of the concept is the consideration given by development policies and programs to the interrelations between population, resources, the environment, and development factors. Population variables and goals should ideally be treated as endogenous variables in development planning, but in practice the extreme complexity of such a systematic approach limits its ability to be made operational. Usually the most crucial problems only are included. Integrated planning is composed of explicit or implicit population policies intended to influence demographic variables and of socioeconomic policies intended to adapt to demographic change. In the Sahel, only Senegal, Burkina Faso, and Mali have formal population policies, but around 1980 several countries of the region began to show interest in influencing demographic variables as they did economic variables. Fundamental principles for developing an integration strategy can be applied regardless or whether the plan is based on projections, analysis of interaction of a demographic variable with factors specific to a sector, or a monosectorial or multisectorial demoeconomic planning model. Demographic data is used more frequently in diagnosing problems than in developing projections or formulating objectives. The level of disaggregation of demographic projections and estimates tends to be low, despite the great potential utility of demographic projections in planning. Demographic projections can be useful

  6. Health effects models for nuclear power plant accident consequence analysis: Low LET radiation: Part 2, Scientific bases for health effects models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Abrahamson, S.; Bender, M.; Book, S.; Buncher, C.; Denniston, C.; Gilbert, E.; Hahn, F.; Hertzberg, V.; Maxon, H.; Scott, B.

    1989-05-01

    This report provides dose-response models intended to be used in estimating the radiological health effects of nuclear power plant accidents. Models of early and continuing effects, cancers and thyroid nodules, and genetic effects are provided. Two-parameter Weibull hazard functions are recommended for estimating the risks of early and continuing health effects. Three potentially lethal early effects -- the hematopoietic, pulmonary and gastrointestinal syndromes -- are considered. Linear and linear-quadratic models are recommended for estimating cancer risks. Parameters are given for analyzing the risks of seven types of cancer in adults -- leukemia, bone, lung, breast, gastrointestinal, thyroid and ''other''. The category, ''other'' cancers, is intended to reflect the combined risks of multiple myeloma, lymphoma, and cancers of the bladder, kidney, brain, ovary, uterus and cervix. Models of childhood cancers due to in utero exposure are also provided. For most cancers, both incidence and mortality are addressed. Linear and linear-quadratic models are also recommended for assessing genetic risks. Five classes of genetic disease -- dominant, x-linked, aneuploidy, unbalanced translocation and multifactorial diseases --are considered. In addition, the impact of radiation-induced genetic damage on the incidence of peri-implantation embryo losses is discussed. The uncertainty in modeling radiological health risks is addressed by providing central, upper, and lower estimates of all model parameters. Data are provided which should enable analysts to consider the timing and severity of each type of health risk. 22 refs., 14 figs., 51 tabs.

  7. Tests of species-specific models reveal the importance of drought in postglacial range shifts of a Mediterranean-climate tree: insights from integrative distributional, demographic and coalescent modelling and ABC model selection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bemmels, Jordan B; Title, Pascal O; Ortego, Joaquín; Knowles, L Lacey

    2016-10-01

    Past climate change has caused shifts in species distributions and undoubtedly impacted patterns of genetic variation, but the biological processes mediating responses to climate change, and their genetic signatures, are often poorly understood. We test six species-specific biologically informed hypotheses about such processes in canyon live oak (Quercus chrysolepis) from the California Floristic Province. These hypotheses encompass the potential roles of climatic niche, niche multidimensionality, physiological trade-offs in functional traits, and local-scale factors (microsites and local adaptation within ecoregions) in structuring genetic variation. Specifically, we use ecological niche models (ENMs) to construct temporally dynamic landscapes where the processes invoked by each hypothesis are reflected by differences in local habitat suitabilities. These landscapes are used to simulate expected patterns of genetic variation under each model and evaluate the fit of empirical data from 13 microsatellite loci genotyped in 226 individuals from across the species range. Using approximate Bayesian computation (ABC), we obtain very strong support for two statistically indistinguishable models: a trade-off model in which growth rate and drought tolerance drive habitat suitability and genetic structure, and a model based on the climatic niche estimated from a generic ENM, in which the variables found to make the most important contribution to the ENM have strong conceptual links to drought stress. The two most probable models for explaining the patterns of genetic variation thus share a common component, highlighting the potential importance of seasonal drought in driving historical range shifts in a temperate tree from a Mediterranean climate where summer drought is common.

  8. Long-term physiological alterations and recovery in a mouse model of separation associated with time-restricted feeding: a tool to study anorexia nervosa related consequences.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sara Zgheib

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Anorexia nervosa is a primary psychiatric disorder, with non-negligible rates of mortality and morbidity. Some of the related alterations could participate in a vicious cycle limiting the recovery. Animal models mimicking various physiological alterations related to anorexia nervosa are necessary to provide better strategies of treatment. AIM: To explore physiological alterations and recovery in a long-term mouse model mimicking numerous consequences of severe anorexia nervosa. METHODS: C57Bl/6 female mice were submitted to a separation-based anorexia protocol combining separation and time-restricted feeding for 10 weeks. Thereafter, mice were housed in standard conditions for 10 weeks. Body weight, food intake, body composition, plasma levels of leptin, adiponectin, IGF-1, blood levels of GH, reproductive function and glucose tolerance were followed. Gene expression of several markers of lipid and energy metabolism was assayed in adipose tissues. RESULTS: Mimicking what is observed in anorexia nervosa patients, and despite a food intake close to that of control mice, separation-based anorexia mice displayed marked alterations in body weight, fat mass, lean mass, bone mass acquisition, reproductive function, GH/IGF-1 axis, and leptinemia. mRNA levels of markers of lipogenesis, lipolysis, and the brown-like adipocyte lineage in subcutaneous adipose tissue were also changed. All these alterations were corrected during the recovery phase, except for the hypoleptinemia that persisted despite the full recovery of fat mass. CONCLUSION: This study strongly supports the separation-based anorexia protocol as a valuable model of long-term negative energy balance state that closely mimics various symptoms observed in anorexia nervosa, including metabolic adaptations. Interestingly, during a recovery phase, mice showed a high capacity to normalize these parameters with the exception of plasma leptin levels. It will be interesting therefore to

  9. ECONOMIC PROBLEMS OF EUROPEAN UNION CAUSED BY THE DEMOGRAPHIC AGEING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iulia-Alexandra Percă

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to offer a realistic perspective upon the imminent situation of demographic ageing issue in European Union. The forecasts are not reasons to major concern for the society but rather to become more responsible and not to neglect a problem that could affect our future. The demographic overview of Europe for 2011 – 2060 shows low birth rates, an increase in life expectancy and migration flows having an impact on population. As a result, the parent generation will no longer completely be replaced by the next generation of children and the narrowed active population will have to sustain a large number of persons far advanced in the age. Economic consequences of this social trend, such as increased expenditures on pensions, extended health care costs and the employment problems, are also discussed in order to define the best policy option available.

  10. The MSSA consequence tables

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sacks, I.J.

    1988-01-01

    The Master Safeguards and Security Agreement (MSSA) is the mechanism through which the U.S. Department of Energy is implementing a policy of graded safeguards. Under this concept, the level of protection provided to a target is proportional to the ''cost'' of the loss of the target. Cost is measured by use of the conditional risk equation in which the protection system ineffectiveness is multiplied by the consequence to society of a successful adversary attempt. The consequences which are used in the MSSA process were developed in the summer of the 1986 by a consensus of DOE personnel and contractors. There are separate consequence tables for theft of SNM, radiological sabotage. The consequence values in the tables were deliberately not cross-normalized. The consequence values in each table correspond to a societal or DOE cost, for example, the consequence values for SNM theft compared to a normalized estimate of the expected number of fatalities from a successful use of the stolen material times an estimate of the likelihood of successfully using the material. Consequence values for radiological sabotage correspond very roughly to a similar expected fatality level. Values for industrial sabotage are an estimate of the impact on DOE weapons production or impact on the nuclear weapons stockpile. Problems have arisen in the use of these tables and are discussed in the paper.

  11. Impact of demographic policy on population growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Podyashchikh, P

    1968-01-01

    Various bourgeois theories, including the reactionary Malthusianism and its variants, challenge the Marxist-Leninist revolutionary theory on the growth of population. Bourgeois science maintains that unchanging biological laws of proliferation form the foundation of social life. Malthus, in his "An Essay on the Principle of Population," contends that population increases in a geometric rate, while means of subsistence tend to increase only in an arithmetic rate: neither the way of production nor social conditions but this law of nature in control of proliferation had been the cause of overpopulation, which again leads to misery, hunger, and unemployment. From this follows the possible conclusion that the working classes should be concerned not about how to change the social order but how to reduce the number of childbirths. Progressive science views the laws of social life in a totally different way. Marxism-Leninism teaches that population size, despite the markedly important role played by it in historical progress, fails to represent that main force of social progress which determines the mode of production and of the distribution of material goods, but just the reverse: the mode of production determines the growth of population, the changes in its density and composition. Marxism-Leninism teaches that each historical stage of production (slavery, feudalism, capitalism) has its own special, historically valid demographic law. Bourgeois science maintains that humankind faces an absolute overpopulation caused by the means of production lagging behind the growth of population. Actually this is only a relative overpopulation due to the fact that capitalistic production is subjected to the interests of increasing capitalistic profit and not to those of meeting the demands of population. In socialist countries, production is incessantly developing and expanding, and employment of the entire productive population is ensured. Consequently, the problem of relative

  12. 3D face analysis for demographic biometrics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tokola, Ryan A [ORNL; Mikkilineni, Aravind K [ORNL; Boehnen, Chris Bensing [ORNL

    2015-01-01

    Despite being increasingly easy to acquire, 3D data is rarely used for face-based biometrics applications beyond identification. Recent work in image-based demographic biometrics has enjoyed much success, but these approaches suffer from the well-known limitations of 2D representations, particularly variations in illumination, texture, and pose, as well as a fundamental inability to describe 3D shape. This paper shows that simple 3D shape features in a face-based coordinate system are capable of representing many biometric attributes without problem-specific models or specialized domain knowledge. The same feature vector achieves impressive results for problems as diverse as age estimation, gender classification, and race classification.

  13. Economic consequences of biological variation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Otto, Lars

    2005-01-01

    We present an economic decision support model, based on a Bayesian network, for Mycoplasma infection in slaughter swine production. The model describes the various risk factors for Mycoplasma infection and their interactions. This leads to a stochastic determination of the consequences...... of productivity factors, and this again results in stochastic economic consequences when changing the risk factors or engaging in control arrangements. We use the model to calculate how estimated prevalence and level of Mycoplasma changes when we gather evidence from various veterinarian examinations, and we show...... how this influences the distribution of the economic results of a change in strategy to fight Mycoplasma. One result is that the profitability in fighting Mycoplasma alone is questionable, i.e. risky, thus we must consider the loss of all related diseases in a decision context....

  14. The gradual onset brain death model : a relevant model to study organ donation and its consequences on the outcome after transplantation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kolkert, Joe L. P.; van Dijk, Antony; Ottens, Petra J.; Ploeg, Rutger J.; Leuvenink, Henri G. D.; 't Hart, Nils

    2007-01-01

    Organs used for transplantation are usually derived from heart-beating brain dead donors. However, brain death is known to have negative effects on donor organ quality, previously studied using a difficult to control sudden onset experimental model. We have now developed a reproducible gradual onset

  15. The macroeconomics of demographic unemployment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carlberg, M

    1990-02-01

    "What are the macroeconomic consequences of an increase in labour supply? In the short run, unemployment occurs, due to both lack of aggregate demand and capital shortage. Demand-side policy and money wage restraint prove to be ineffective in this situation, owing to capital shortage. On the other hand, a reduction in working hours without wage compensation as well as a policy mix of both demand-side policy and investment policy turn out to be effective. The reduction in working hours lowers individual income and raises individual leisure, as compared to the policy mix." (SUMMARY IN GER)

  16. Sequence Analysis in Demographic Research

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Billari, Francesco C.

    2001-01-01

    Full Text Available EnglishThis paper examines the salient features of sequence analysis in demogrpahicresearch. The new approach allows a holistic perspective on life course analysis and is based on arepresentation of lives as sequences of states. Some of the methods for analyzing such data aresketched, from complex description to optimal matching ot monoethetic divisive algorithms. Afer ashort ilustration of a demographically-relevant example, the needs in terms of data collection and theopportunities of applying the same aproach to synthetic data are discussed.FrenchOn examine ici les principaux éléments de l’analyse par séquence endémographie. Cette nouvelle technique permet une perspective unifiée del’analyse du cours de la vie, en représentant la vie comme une série d’états.Certaines des méthodes pour de telles analyses sont décrites, en commençant parla description complexe, pour considérer ensuite les alignements optimales, etles algorithmes de division. Après un court exemple en démographie, onconsidère les besoins en données et les possibilités d’application aux donnéessynthétique.

  17. Health effects models for nuclear power plant accident consequence analysis: Modifications of models resulting from recent reports on health effects of ionizing radiation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Abrahamson, S. (Wisconsin Univ., Madison, WI (United States)); Bender, M.A. (Brookhaven National Lab., Upton, NY (United States)); Boecker, B.B.; Scott, B.R. (Lovelace Biomedical and Environmental Research Inst., Albuquerque, NM (United States). Inhalation Toxicology Research Inst.); Gilbert, E.S. (Pacific Northwest Lab., Richland, WA (United States))

    1991-08-01

    The Nuclear Regulatory Commission has sponsored several studies to identify and quantify the potential health effects of accidental releases of radionuclides from nuclear power plants. The most recent health effects models resulting from these efforts were published in two reports, NUREG/CR-4214, Rev. 1, Part 1 (1990) and Part 2 (1989). Several major health effects reports have been published recently that may impact the health effects models presented in these reports. This addendum to the Part 2 (1989) report, provides a review of the 1986 and 1988 reports by the United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation, the National Academy of Sciences/National Research Council BEAR 5 Committee report and Publication 60 of the International Commission on Radiological Protection as they relate to this report. The three main sections of this addendum discuss early occurring and continuing effects, late somatic effects, and genetic effects. The major changes to the NUREG/CR-4214 health effects models recommended in this addendum are for late somatic effects. These changes reflect recent changes in cancer risk factors that have come from longer followup and revised dosimetry in major studies like that on the Japanese A-bomb survivors. The results presented in this addendum should be used with the basic NUREG/CR-4214 reports listed above to obtain the most recent views on the potential health effects of radionuclides released accidentally from nuclear power plants. 48 refs., 4 figs., 24 tabs.

  18. Demographic changes and international factor mobility

    OpenAIRE

    2004-01-01

    This paper reviews the extent and policy implications of linkages between demographic changes and international factor mobility. Evidence is found of significant demographic effects on both migration and the current account, but for different reasons neither increased migration nor international transfers of savings is expected to offer much assistance in digesting the variety of demographic transitions expected over the next fifty years. The paper also examines more briefly the effects of de...

  19. Evaluating alternative strategies for minimizing unintended fitness consequences of cultured individuals on wild populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baskett, Marissa L; Waples, Robin S

    2013-02-01

    Artificial propagation strategies often incur selection in captivity that leads to traits that are maladaptive in the wild. For propagation programs focused on production rather than demographic contribution to wild populations, effects on wild populations can occur through unintentional escapement or the need to release individuals into natural environments for part of their life cycle. In this case, 2 alternative management strategies might reduce unintended fitness consequences on natural populations: (1) reduce selection in captivity as much as possible to reduce fitness load (keep them similar), or (2) breed a separate population to reduce captive-wild interactions as much as possible (make them different). We quantitatively evaluate these 2 strategies with a coupled demographic-genetic model based on Pacific salmon hatcheries that incorporates a variety of relevant processes and dynamics: selection in the hatchery relative to the wild, assortative mating based on the trait under selection, and different life cycle arrangements in terms of hatchery release, density dependence, natural selection, and reproduction. Model results indicate that, if natural selection only occurs between reproduction and captive release, the similar strategy performs better. However, if natural selection occurs between captive release and reproduction, the different and similar strategies present viable alternatives to reducing unintended fitness consequences because of the greater opportunity to purge maladaptive individuals. In this case, the appropriate approach depends on the feasibility of each strategy and the demographic goal (e.g., increasing natural abundance, or ensuring that a high proportion of natural spawners are naturally produced). In addition, the fitness effects of hatchery release are much greater if hatchery release occurs before (vs. after) density-dependent interactions. Given the logistical challenges to achieving both the similar and different strategies

  20. Consequences of Accounting Standards

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Cai Mingyue

    2009-01-01

    The first part of this article consists in attempting to highlight the importance of concerning about the economic consequences and introducing the foundation of economic consequence theory, proposing that the accounting standard is not only a kind of technical standard, it also has the economic consequences, so it becomes the object which all quarters special interest group gambles to get latent profit. After general characterization of the economic consequences in the second part, the article gives a description of the influences the change of accounting standards bring to the government, the ordinary investors and creditors, the auditors, and the enterprise, establishing a framework that how those groups react as the economic consequences in the third part. The fourth section compare technical theory and accounting standards theory, links the basic norms of accounting such as conservatism, relevance and reliability to the methods of escaping the harm of economic consequences, then proposes some specific methods in the formuhtion of accounting standard. Finally, the article utilizes the methods to settle the problems appearing in Chinese market.

  1. Tobacco Sales in Community Pharmacies: Remote Decisions and Demographic Targets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morton, Cory M.; Peterson, N. Andrew; Schneider, John E.; Smith, Brian J.; Armstead, Theresa L.

    2010-01-01

    This study applied multilevel modeling procedures with data from 678 community pharmacies and 382 residential census tracts in a Midwestern U.S. state to determine if two sets of variables: retail type (e.g., remotely owned, independently owned) and population demographics of the tracts in which outlets were located were associated with retail…

  2. Demographic Analysis and Planning for the Future. No. 13.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Efird, Cathy M.

    The basic sources and types of demographic data available for future planning for the developmentally disabled are reviewed and a frame work for data organization is suggested. It is explained that future forecasts may be undertaken by the following principles: trend forecasting or extrapolation; scenario construction; models, games, and…

  3. Social identity patterns and trust in demographically diverse work teams

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Zee, Karen; Vos, Menno; Luijters, Kyra

    The article presents a model that links trust in a demographically diverse work context to three different social-identity patterns. Trust is considered to be beneficial for interpersonal relationships and work outcomes in diverse teams as well as for a healthy work relationship between minority

  4. Tobacco Sales in Community Pharmacies: Remote Decisions and Demographic Targets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morton, Cory M.; Peterson, N. Andrew; Schneider, John E.; Smith, Brian J.; Armstead, Theresa L.

    2010-01-01

    This study applied multilevel modeling procedures with data from 678 community pharmacies and 382 residential census tracts in a Midwestern U.S. state to determine if two sets of variables: retail type (e.g., remotely owned, independently owned) and population demographics of the tracts in which outlets were located were associated with retail…

  5. Social identity patterns and trust in demographically diverse work teams

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Zee, Karen; Vos, Menno; Luijters, Kyra

    2009-01-01

    The article presents a model that links trust in a demographically diverse work context to three different social-identity patterns. Trust is considered to be beneficial for interpersonal relationships and work outcomes in diverse teams as well as for a healthy work relationship between minority mem

  6. Stochastic dynamic simulation modeling including multitrait genetics to estimate genetic, technical, and financial consequences of dairy farm reproduction and selection strategies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaniyamattam, K; Elzo, M A; Cole, J B; De Vries, A

    2016-10-01

    cows in the herd was $263 greater in yr 15 in a scenario that combined sexed semen use in heifers and culling of surplus heifers with the lowest EBV of NM$, compared with a scenario that used only conventional semen and surplus heifers were culled randomly. The average TBV of daughter pregnancy rate of all cows in the herd was 1.25 percentage points greater in yr 15 in a scenario that combined using sexed semen in heifers as well as culling of surplus heifers ranked by EBV of NM$, compared with a scenario using conventional semen only as well as culling surplus heifers ranked by EBV of milk. In conclusion, the multitrait genetics model resulted in improved estimates of genetic, technical, and financial effects and appears useful to evaluate consequences of various reproduction and selection strategies within a dairy farm. Copyright © 2016 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Performance consequences of psychological empowerment

    OpenAIRE

    Tuuli, MM; Rowlinson, S

    2009-01-01

    The relationship between psychological empowerment and job performance, and whether three intermediate performance determinants; motivation, ability, and opportunity to perform hold the key to unlocking the empowerment-performance relationship dilemma are addressed. Using hierarchical linear modeling to analyze responses from 380 project management-level staff, the results show that psychological empowerment not only has direct and positive performance consequences, but also indirect effects,...

  8. Marketing little cigars and cigarillos: advertising, price, and associations with neighborhood demographics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cantrell, Jennifer; Kreslake, Jennifer M; Ganz, Ollie; Pearson, Jennifer L; Vallone, Donna; Anesetti-Rothermel, Andrew; Xiao, Haijun; Kirchner, Thomas R

    2013-10-01

    We have documented little cigar and cigarillo (LCC) availability, advertising, and price in the point-of-sale environment and examined associations with neighborhood demographics. We used a multimodal real-time surveillance system to survey LCCs in 750 licensed tobacco retail outlets that sold tobacco products in Washington, DC. Using multivariate models, we examined the odds of LCC availability, the number of storefront exterior advertisements, and the price per cigarillo for Black & Mild packs in relation to neighborhood demographics. The odds of LCC availability and price per cigarillo decreased significantly in nearly a dose-response manner with each quartile increase in proportion of African Americans. Prices were also lower in some young adult neighborhoods. Having a higher proportion of African American and young adult residents was associated with more exterior LCC advertising. Higher availability of LCCs in African American communities and lower prices and greater outdoor advertising in minority and young adult neighborhoods may establish environmental triggers to smoke among groups susceptible to initiation, addiction, and long-term negative health consequences.

  9. Statistical inference on genetic data reveals the complex demographic history of human populations in central Asia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palstra, Friso P; Heyer, Evelyne; Austerlitz, Frédéric

    2015-06-01

    The demographic history of modern humans constitutes a combination of expansions, colonizations, contractions, and remigrations. The advent of large scale genetic data combined with statistically refined methods facilitates inference of this complex history. Here we study the demographic history of two genetically admixed ethnic groups in Central Asia, an area characterized by high levels of genetic diversity and a history of recurrent immigration. Using Approximate Bayesian Computation, we infer that the timing of admixture markedly differs between the two groups. Admixture in the traditionally agricultural Tajiks could be dated back to the onset of the Neolithic transition in the region, whereas admixture in Kyrgyz is more recent, and may have involved the westward movement of Turkic peoples. These results are confirmed by a coalescent method that fits an isolation-with-migration model to the genetic data, with both Central Asian groups having received gene flow from the extremities of Eurasia. Interestingly, our analyses also uncover signatures of gene flow from Eastern to Western Eurasia during Paleolithic times. In conclusion, the high genetic diversity currently observed in these two Central Asian peoples most likely reflects the effects of recurrent immigration that likely started before historical times. Conversely, conquests during historical times may have had a relatively limited genetic impact. These results emphasize the need for a better understanding of the genetic consequences of transmission of culture and technological innovations, as well as those of invasions and conquests.

  10. Spatial noise in coupling strength and natural frequency within a pacemaker network; consequences for development of intestinal motor patterns according to a weakly coupled phase oscillator model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sean P Parsons

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Pacemaker activities generated by networks of interstitial cells of Cajal (ICC, in conjunction with the enteric nervous system, orchestrate most motor patterns in the gastrointestinal tract. It was our objective to understand the role of network features of ICC associated with the myenteric plexus (ICC-MP in the shaping of motor patterns of the small intestine. To that end, a model of weakly coupled oscillators (oscillators influence each other's phase but not amplitude was created with most parameters derived from experimental data. The ICC network is a uniform two dimensional network coupled by gap junctions. All ICC generate pacemaker (slow wave activity with a frequency gradient in mice from 50/min at the proximal end of the intestine to 40/min at the distal end. Key features of motor patterns, directly related to the underlying pacemaker activity, are frequency steps and dislocations. These were accurately mimicked by reduction of coupling strength at a point in the chain of oscillators. When coupling strength was expressed as a product of gap junction density and conductance, and gap junction density was varied randomly along the chain (i.e. spatial noise with a long-tailed distribution, plateau steps occurred at points of low density. As gap junction conductance was decreased, the number of plateaus increased, mimicking the effect of the gap junction inhibitor carbenoxolone. When spatial noise was added to the natural interval gradient, as gap junction conductance decreased, the number of plateaus increased as before but in addition the phase waves frequently changed direction of apparent propagation, again mimicking the effect of carbenoxolone. In summary, key features of the motor patterns that are governed by pacemaker activity may be a direct consequence of biological noise, specifically spatial noise in gap junction coupling and pacemaker frequency.

  11. Spatial Noise in Coupling Strength and Natural Frequency within a Pacemaker Network; Consequences for Development of Intestinal Motor Patterns According to a Weakly Coupled Phase Oscillator Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parsons, Sean P.; Huizinga, Jan D.

    2016-01-01

    Pacemaker activities generated by networks of interstitial cells of Cajal (ICC), in conjunction with the enteric nervous system, orchestrate most motor patterns in the gastrointestinal tract. It was our objective to understand the role of network features of ICC associated with the myenteric plexus (ICC-MP) in the shaping of motor patterns of the small intestine. To that end, a model of weakly coupled oscillators (oscillators influence each other's phase but not amplitude) was created with most parameters derived from experimental data. The ICC network is a uniform two dimensional network coupled by gap junctions. All ICC generate pacemaker (slow wave) activity with a frequency gradient in mice from 50/min at the proximal end of the intestine to 40/min at the distal end. Key features of motor patterns, directly related to the underlying pacemaker activity, are frequency steps and dislocations. These were accurately mimicked by reduction of coupling strength at a point in the chain of oscillators. When coupling strength was expressed as a product of gap junction density and conductance, and gap junction density was varied randomly along the chain (i.e., spatial noise) with a long-tailed distribution, plateau steps occurred at pointsof low density. As gap junction conductance was decreased, the number of plateaus increased, mimicking the effect of the gap junction inhibitor carbenoxolone. When spatial noise was added to the natural interval gradient, as gap junction conductance decreased, the number of plateaus increased as before but in addition the phase waves frequently changed direction of apparent propagation, again mimicking the effect of carbenoxolone. In summary, key features of the motor patterns that are governed by pacemaker activity may be a direct consequence of biological noise, specifically spatial noise in gap junction coupling and pacemaker frequency. PMID:26869875

  12. Spatial Noise in Coupling Strength and Natural Frequency within a Pacemaker Network; Consequences for Development of Intestinal Motor Patterns According to a Weakly Coupled Phase Oscillator Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parsons, Sean P; Huizinga, Jan D

    2016-01-01

    Pacemaker activities generated by networks of interstitial cells of Cajal (ICC), in conjunction with the enteric nervous system, orchestrate most motor patterns in the gastrointestinal tract. It was our objective to understand the role of network features of ICC associated with the myenteric plexus (ICC-MP) in the shaping of motor patterns of the small intestine. To that end, a model of weakly coupled oscillators (oscillators influence each other's phase but not amplitude) was created with most parameters derived from experimental data. The ICC network is a uniform two dimensional network coupled by gap junctions. All ICC generate pacemaker (slow wave) activity with a frequency gradient in mice from 50/min at the proximal end of the intestine to 40/min at the distal end. Key features of motor patterns, directly related to the underlying pacemaker activity, are frequency steps and dislocations. These were accurately mimicked by reduction of coupling strength at a point in the chain of oscillators. When coupling strength was expressed as a product of gap junction density and conductance, and gap junction density was varied randomly along the chain (i.e., spatial noise) with a long-tailed distribution, plateau steps occurred at pointsof low density. As gap junction conductance was decreased, the number of plateaus increased, mimicking the effect of the gap junction inhibitor carbenoxolone. When spatial noise was added to the natural interval gradient, as gap junction conductance decreased, the number of plateaus increased as before but in addition the phase waves frequently changed direction of apparent propagation, again mimicking the effect of carbenoxolone. In summary, key features of the motor patterns that are governed by pacemaker activity may be a direct consequence of biological noise, specifically spatial noise in gap junction coupling and pacemaker frequency.

  13. Socio-demographic, psychosocial and home-environmental attributes associated with adults' domestic screen time

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Owen Neville

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Sedentary behaviors (involving prolonged sitting time are associated with deleterious health consequences, independent of (lack of physical activity. To inform interventions, correlates of prevalent sedentary behaviors need to be identified. We examined associations of socio-demographic, home-environmental and psychosocial factors with adults' TV viewing time and leisure-time Internet use; and whether psychosocial and environmental correlates differed according to gender, age and educational attainment. Methods This cross-sectional study was conducted in Ghent, Belgium, between March and May 2010. Respondents to a mail-out survey (n = 419; 20-65 years; mean age 48.5 [12.1] years; 47.3% men completed a questionnaire on sedentary behaviors and their potential socio-demographic, psychosocial and home environmental correlates. Statistical analyses were performed using multiple linear regression models. Results The independent variables explained 31% of the variance in TV viewing time and 38% of the variance in leisure-time Internet use. Higher education, greater perceived pros of and confidence about reducing TV time were negatively associated with TV viewing time; older age, higher body mass index, larger TV set size and greater perceived cons of reducing TV time showed positive associations. Perceived pros of and confidence about reducing Internet use were negatively associated with leisure-time Internet use; higher education, number of computers in the home, positive family social norms about Internet use and perceived cons of reducing Internet use showed positive associations. None of the socio-demographic factors moderated these associations. Conclusions Educational level, age, self-efficacy and pros/cons were the most important correlates identified in this study. If further cross-sectional and longitudinal research can confirm these findings, tailored interventions focusing on both psychosocial and environmental factors in

  14. Bias and ignorance in demographic perception.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Landy, D; Guay, B; Marghetis, T

    2017-08-31

    When it comes to knowledge of demographic facts, misinformation appears to be the norm. Americans massively overestimate the proportions of their fellow citizens who are immigrants, Muslim, LGBTQ, and Latino, but underestimate those who are White or Christian. Previous explanations of these estimation errors have invoked topic-specific mechanisms such as xenophobia or media bias. We reconsidered this pattern of errors in the light of more than 30 years of research on the psychological processes involved in proportion estimation and decision-making under uncertainty. In two publicly available datasets featuring demographic estimates from 14 countries, we found that proportion estimates of national demographics correspond closely to what is found in laboratory studies of quantitative estimates more generally. Biases in demographic estimation, therefore, are part of a very general pattern of human psychology-independent of the particular topic or demographic under consideration-that explains most of the error in estimates of the size of politically salient populations. By situating demographic estimates within a broader understanding of general quantity estimation, these results demand reevaluation of both topic-specific misinformation about demographic facts and topic-specific explanations of demographic ignorance, such as media bias and xenophobia.

  15. The State Economic, Demographic & Fiscal Handbook 1993.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baer, David; Cohen, Lee

    This handbook is an easy-to-use reference book for policymakers, public officials, and policy analysts, as well as anyone else who may need up-to-date information about state economic, demographic, and fiscal data. The book includes data on demographics, poverty rates, per capita state personal income, state and local tax rates, and state and…

  16. 5 CFR 841.404 - Demographic factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 5 Administrative Personnel 2 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Demographic factors. 841.404 Section 841... (CONTINUED) FEDERAL EMPLOYEES RETIREMENT SYSTEM-GENERAL ADMINISTRATION Government Costs § 841.404 Demographic factors. (a) The Office of Personnel Management (OPM) will consider the factors listed below...

  17. Demographic and clinical features of neuromyelitis optica

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pandit, L.; Asgari, Nasrin; Apiwattanakul, M.

    2015-01-01

    The comparative clinical and demographic features of neuromyelitis optica (NMO) are not well known. In this review we analyzed peer-reviewed publications for incidence and prevalence, clinical phenotypes, and demographic features of NMO. Population-based studies from Europe, South East and Southe...

  18. A Demographic Perspective on Family Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bianchi, Suzanne M.

    2014-01-01

    Demographic analysis seeks to understand how individual microlevel decisions about child-bearing, marriage and partnering, geographic mobility, and behaviors that influence health and longevity aggregate to macrolevel population trends and differentials in fertility, mortality and migration. In this review, I first discuss theoretical perspectives—classic demographic transition theory, the perspective of the “second demographic transition,” the spread of developmental idealism—that inform demographers’ understanding of macrolevel population change. Then, I turn to a discussion of the role that demographically informed data collection has played in illuminating family change since the mid-20th century in the United States. Finally, I discuss ways in which demographic theory and data collection might inform future areas of family research, particularly in the area of intergenerational family relationships and new and emerging family forms. PMID:26078785

  19. Blockade of P2X4 Receptors Inhibits Neuropathic Pain-Related Behavior by Preventing MMP-9 Activation and, Consequently, Pronociceptive Interleukin Release in a Rat Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jurga, Agnieszka M.; Piotrowska, Anna; Makuch, Wioletta; Przewlocka, Barbara; Mika, Joanna

    2017-01-01

    Neuropathic pain is still an extremely important problem in today’s medicine because opioids, which are commonly used to reduce pain, have limited efficacy in this type of pathology. Therefore, complementary therapy is needed. Our experiments were performed in rats to evaluate the contribution of the purinergic system, especially P2X4 receptor (P2X4R), in the modulation of glia activation and, consequently, the levels of nociceptive interleukins after chronic constriction injury (CCI) of the right sciatic nerve, a rat model of neuropathic pain. Moreover, we studied how intrathecal (ith.) injection of a P2X4R antagonist Tricarbonyldichlororuthenium (II) dimer (CORM-2) modulates nociceptive transmission and opioid effectiveness in the CCI model. Our results demonstrate that repeated ith. administration of CORM-2 once daily (20 μg/5 μl, 16 and 1 h before CCI and then daily) for eight consecutive days significantly reduced pain-related behavior and activation of both spinal microglia and/or astroglia induced by CCI. Moreover, even a single administration of CORM-2 on day 7 after CCI attenuated mechanical and thermal hypersensitivity as efficiently as morphine and buprenorphine. In addition, using Western blot, we have shown that repeated ith. administration of CORM-2 lowers the CCI-elevated level of MMP-9 and pronociceptive interleukins (IL-1β, IL-18, IL-6) in the dorsal L4-L6 spinal cord and/or DRG. Furthermore, in parallel, CORM-2 upregulates spinal IL-1Ra; however, it does not influence other antinociceptive factors, IL-10 and IL-18BP. Additionally, based on our biochemical results, we hypothesize that p38MAPK, ERK1/2 and PI3K/Akt but not the NLRP3/Caspase-1 pathway are partly involved in the CORM-2 analgesic effects in rat neuropathic pain. Our data provide new evidence that P2X4R may indeed play a significant role in neuropathic pain development by modulating neuroimmune interactions in the spinal cord and DRG, suggesting that its blockade may have potential

  20. Metabolic consequences of inflammatory disruption of the blood-brain barrier in an organ-on-chip model of the human neurovascular unit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Jacquelyn A; Codreanu, Simona G; Shi, Mingjian; Sherrod, Stacy D; Markov, Dmitry A; Neely, M Diana; Britt, Clayton M; Hoilett, Orlando S; Reiserer, Ronald S; Samson, Philip C; McCawley, Lisa J; Webb, Donna J; Bowman, Aaron B; McLean, John A; Wikswo, John P

    2016-12-12

    Understanding blood-brain barrier responses to inflammatory stimulation (such as lipopolysaccharide mimicking a systemic infection or a cytokine cocktail that could be the result of local or systemic inflammation) is essential to understanding the effect of inflammatory stimulation on the brain. It is through the filter of the blood-brain barrier that the brain responds to outside influences, and the blood-brain barrier is a critical point of failure in neuroinflammation. It is important to note that this interaction is not a static response, but one that evolves over time. While current models have provided invaluable information regarding the interaction between cytokine stimulation, the blood-brain barrier, and the brain, these approaches-whether in vivo or in vitro-have often been only snapshots of this complex web of interactions. We utilize new advances in microfluidics, organs-on-chips, and metabolomics to examine the complex relationship of inflammation and its effects on blood-brain barrier function ex vivo and the metabolic consequences of these responses and repair mechanisms. In this study, we pair a novel dual-chamber, organ-on-chip microfluidic device, the NeuroVascular Unit, with small-volume cytokine detection and mass spectrometry analysis to investigate how the blood-brain barrier responds to two different but overlapping drivers of neuroinflammation, lipopolysaccharide and a cytokine cocktail of IL-1β, TNF-α, and MCP1,2. In this study, we show that (1) during initial exposure to lipopolysaccharide, the blood-brain barrier is compromised as expected, with increased diffusion and reduced presence of tight junctions, but that over time, the barrier is capable of at least partial recovery; (2) a cytokine cocktail also contributes to a loss of barrier function; (3) from this time-dependent cytokine activation, metabolic signature profiles can be obtained for both the brain and vascular sides of the blood-brain barrier model; and (4) collectively, we

  1. [Spatial pattern and consequences of demographic aging processes for regional planning].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friedrich, K

    1991-01-01

    The spatial dimension of man-environment interactions in old age is analyzed within urban, suburban, and rural residential environments of the German Rhine-Main-Agglomeration. By comparing the three levels of organization, utilization, and interpretation, housing conditions as well as geographical distribution and redistribution (migrations) our outside-home-activities and environmental perception show a fundamental influence on the everyday lives of the 750 elderly who were interviewed. The majority of the target population and, especially, the rural elderly is characterized by traditional patterns of spatial organization and distribution, mobility, regional attachment, and a concern about preserving the stability of their current residential environment from changes. The suburban and urban seniors, however, exhibit a greater amount of locational flexibility and utility-oriented behavior patterns. These spatial variations are induced by specific regional values and intensity of local and regional identification. They might be interpreted as different stages in the process of modernization within postindustrial societies. Reflecting, however, the paradigms of planning for the elderly, these different patterns are not systematically considered to the necessary and sufficient extent. Instead of promoting regional or local networks that are favored by senior citizens, agencies usually prefer comprehensive approaches on a macrolevel. First steps to improve this situation and to combine life- and system-world demands have been taken by the federal government, which implemented a neighborhood-related research program on housing for the elderly. As a result of this, further research on environmental aspects on aging should pay more methodological attention to the hitherto neglected regional and local level, and also for the transfer of its findings into planning policy.

  2. Demographic consequences of inbreeding and outbreeding in Arnica montana: a field experiment.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Luijten, S.H.; Kery, M.; Oostermeijer, J.G.B.; den Nijs, J.C.M.

    2002-01-01

    1. The genetic constitution of populations may significantly affect demography. Founder populations or isolated remnants may show inbreeding depression, while established populations can be strongly adapted to the local environment. Gene exchange between populations can lead to better performance if

  3. CURRENT DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS AND THEIR GEOPOLITICAL AND STRATEGIC REPERCUSSIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ionel STOICA

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Major worldwide demographic trends impact significantly each aspect of people’s lives. The impact will be favorable for some states and completely unfavorable for others since they will depend not only on the magnitude of these tendencies, but also on the aggregated result of the inherent shifts and developments at political, economic, social and military level Global demographic trends will represent a genuine challenge for the powerful states to maintain the existing global political and economic equilibrium and they will also constitute a genuine shocking force for international security and stability. At the same time, they will represent one of the variables underpinning states’ strategies, and domestic and foreign policies and influencing political and military alliances in the future. It is likely that they will lead to the reassessment of the bases of international relations. This paper analyzes the presumed consequences of future demographic shifts on the economic, political, military field and proposes some possible solutions to efficiently manage the issue.

  4. Consequences of Windscale accident (October 1957) and study of the validity of the Sutton's mathematical model of atmospheric diffusion (1960); Etude des consequences de l'accident de Windscale (Octobre 1957) et de la validite du modele mathematique de diffusion atmospherique de Sutton (1960)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Doury, A. [Commissariat a l' Energie Atomique (S.C.R.G.R.) Saclay (France).Centre d' Etudes Nucleaires; Martin, J.J. [Electricite de France (EDF)(S.L.P.R.), 37 - Chinon (France)

    1960-07-01

    The reactor accident that happens at the number 1 pile of Windscale in 1957 was followed by a discharge of radioactive products into the atmosphere from the 1.X.1957 at 4.30 PM to the 12.X.1957 at 3.10 PM. On october the 11{sup th} it was possible to say that there was no more risk either of external irradiation or inhalation. But in adopting a M.A.C. of 0,1 {mu}curie of iodine 131 per litre of milk, the Authority had to control the milk delivery till november 23{sup rd} on a 500 km{sup 2} area. On the other hand, this exceptional accident permit to verify that Sutton's atmospheric diffusion model could give an easy means to foresee, with a sufficient approximation, the consequences of a dispersion of radioactive products into the atmosphere. (author) [French] L'accident survenu a la pile numero 1 de Windscale en 1957 a entraine l'emission de matieres radioactives dans l'atmosphere du 10 octobre a 16h30 au 12 octobre a 15h10. Le 11 octobre, on pouvait dire qu'il n'y avait plus de risque d'irradiation externe ni de danger par inhalation. Mais en adoptant une C.M.A. de 0,1 {mu}curie d'iode 131 par litre de lait, les autorites ont du reglementer la consommation du lait jusqu'au 23 novembre sur une etendue d'environ 500 km{sup 2}. D'autre part, cet accident exceptionnel a permis de verifier que le modele de diffusion atmospherique de Sutton pouvait fournir un moyen commode de prevoir avec une approximation suffisante les consequences d'une dispersion de produits radioactifs dans l'atmosphere. (auteur)

  5. Reconnecting Actions and Consequences

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersen, Marianne Graves; Ludvigsen, Martin; Krogh, Peter

    2009-01-01

    In this paper we present a brief critique of the current approach to the design of pervasive computing artifacts; claiming that this in itself promotes solutions that prevent end-users from accessing and understanding the consequences of their actions in terms of energy sustainability, specifical...

  6. Acromegaly : irreversible clinical consequences

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wassenaar, Monica Johanna Elisabeth

    2010-01-01

    This thesis describes the long-term consequences of growth hormone and insulin-like growth factor I excess in patients cured from acromegaly for a mean duration of 17 years. Regarding the considerable prevalence of diverse morbidity in these patients, during the active phase of the disease but even

  7. Acromegaly : irreversible clinical consequences

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wassenaar, Monica Johanna Elisabeth

    2010-01-01

    This thesis describes the long-term consequences of growth hormone and insulin-like growth factor I excess in patients cured from acromegaly for a mean duration of 17 years. Regarding the considerable prevalence of diverse morbidity in these patients, during the active phase of the disease but even

  8. Reconnecting Actions and Consequences

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ludvigsen, Martin; Krogh, Peter; Petersen, Marianne Graves

    2009-01-01

    In this paper we present a brief critique of the current approach to the design of pervasive computing artifacts; claiming that this in itself promotes solutions that prevent end-users from accessing and understanding the consequences of their actions in terms of energy sustainability, specifically...

  9. Normal modal preferential consequence

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Britz, K

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available of necessitation holds for the corresponding consequence relations, as one would expect it to. We present a representation result for this tightened framework, and investigate appropriate notions of entailment in this context|normal entailment, and a rational...

  10. 基于消费收入生命周期的中国人口红利测算及国际比较%China's Demographic Dividend and International Comparison:Calculated Based on the Lifecycle Consumption-Income Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    谢建国; 卞丽娟

    2016-01-01

    Using the United Nations population forecast data and NTA (the National Transfer Accounts)data on consumption and labor income,this paper calculates the phase of beginning and ending of China's demographic dividend.The results show that,with the real effective labor income level and effective consumption standards of demographic dividend in China began in 1973,and will dissipate in 2015.At the same time,this paper measures and compares with the United States,Japan,Korea,France and Australia and other typical countries economic growth in demographic dividend period and after demographic dividend to dissipate,the results show that,after the demographic dividend dissipate,the country's economic growth entered the era of low growth without exception.Although China's economic development is different from these countries,but when the demographic dividend disappeared These countries are facing the effective labor population decline and the challenge of an aging population .How to deal with Labor short-age,economic growth after demographic dividend dissipated is the Chinese government must to solve.%以联合国人口预测数据与NTA 消费水平和劳动力收入数据为样本,测算中国人口红利的起止期,比较美国、日本、韩国、法国与澳大利亚等代表性国家收获人口红利期间与人口红利消散后的经济增长。结果显示,在人口红利消散后,这些国家无一例外进入了经济低增长时代。中国在人口红利消失后同样面临有效劳动人口比重下降、人口老龄化的严峻挑战。因此,在经济社会转型时期,需调整人口政策与劳动保障政策。

  11. Socio-demographic determinants and access to prenatal care in Italy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiavarini, Manuela; Lanari, Donatella; Minelli, Liliana; Salmasi, Luca

    2014-04-15

    Many governments have made commitments to examine inequalities in healthcare access based on studies assessing the association between several socio-demographic factors and late initiation or fewer prenatal examinations. This study addressed the question of whether socio-demographic determinants were significant in explaining differences in prenatal care in one administrative region of Italy, Umbria. Data were obtained from the administrative source of the regional Standard Certificate of Live Births between 2005 and 2010, and were merged with Census data to include a socio-economic deprivation index. Standard and multilevel logistic regression models were used to analyze the magnitude of various individual-level maternal characteristics and socio-demographic indicators, such as nationality, employment status, education with respect to late access to the first examination, and low number of medical visits. The study involved approximately 37,000 women. The heterogeneous effects of socio-demographic variables were documented on the prenatal care indicators analyzed. A multivariate model showed that women born outside Italy had a higher probability of making their first visit later than the 12th week of pregnancy and low numbers of prenatal medical visits; the estimated odds ratio for the analyzed indicators range from 2.25 to 3.05. Inadequate prenatal healthcare use was also observed in younger and pluriparous women and those with low education; in addition, having a job improved the use of services, possibly through transmission of information of negative consequences due to delayed or few prenatal visits. Interestingly, this study found a substantial reduction in the number of pregnant women who do not use prenatal healthcare services properly. The aim of this research is to provide more accurate knowledge about the inadequate use of prenatal healthcare in Italy. Results highlight the existence of differences in healthcare use during pregnancy, especially for

  12. Lasting consequences of traumatic events on behavioral and skeletal parameters in a mouse model for post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hongrun Yu

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD is an anxiety disorder that not only affects mental health, but may also affect bone health. However, there have been no studies to examine the direct relationship between PTSD and bone. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We employed electric shocks in mice to simulate traumatic events that cause PTSD. We also injected the anxiogenic drug FG-7142 prior to electric shocks. Electric shocks created lasting conditioned fear memory in all mice. In young mice, electric shocks elicited not only behavioral response but also skeletal response, and injection of FG-7142 appeared to increase both types of response. For example in behavioral response within the first week, mice shocked alone froze an average of 6.2 sec in 10 sec tests, and mice injected with FG-7142 froze 7.6 sec, both significantly different (P<0.05 from control mice, which only froze 1.3 sec. In skeletal response at week 2, shocks alone reduced 6% bone mineral content (BMC in total body (P = 0.06, while shocks with FG-7142 injection reduced not only 11% BMC (P<0.05 but also 6% bone mineral density (BMD (P<0.05. In addition, FG-7142 injection also caused significant reductions of BMC in specific bones such as femur, lumbar vertebra, and tibia at week 3. Strong negative correlations (R(2 = -0.56, P<0.05 and regression (y = 0.2527-0.0037 * x, P<0.01 between freezing behavior and total body BMC in young mice indicated that increased contextual PTSD-like behavior was associated with reduced bone mass acquisition. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: This is the first study to document evidence that traumatic events induce lasting consequences on both behavior and skeletal growth, and electric shocks coupled with injection of anxiogenic FG-7142 in young mice can be used as a model to study the effect of PTSD-like symptoms on bone development.

  13. Surviving the Holocaust: Socio-demographic Differences Among Amsterdam Jews.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tammes, Peter

    2017-01-01

    This study determined the victimisation rate among Amsterdam Jews and socio-demographic differences in surviving the Holocaust. After linking a registration list of over 77,000 Jewish inhabitants in 1941 to post-war lists of Jewish victims and survivors, the victimisation rate lies between 74.3 and 75.3 %. Differences in survival chances and risk of being killed are examined by using multivariable logistic and Cox regression analyses. While male Jews had a reduced risk of death, in the end their survival chances hardly differed from females. Though Jews aged 6-14 and 31-50 initially had a lower risk of death, in the end compared with Jews aged 15-30 they had lower survival chances, just as Jews aged 50+. For Jews aged 0-5, it was the other way around. Immigrants showed better survival chances than native Jews. German Jews showed better survival chances than Dutch Jews, but Polish and other Jewish nationals showed highest survival chances. Jews who had abandoned Judaism had better survival chances than Jews belonging to an Israelite congregation. Divorced, widowed and unmarried adult Jews had better survival chances than married Jews and their children; Jews married to non-Jews, however, had one of the highest survival chances. Jews in the two highest social classes had better survival chances than jobless Jews. These findings indicate that survival was not random but related to socio-demographic characteristics. This sheds light on demographic consequences of conflict and violence: Nazi persecution reduced the Amsterdam Jewish community drastically, and socio-demographic differences in survival impacted the post-war Jewish population structure.

  14. amily Planning Brings China Demographic Bonus

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    马瀛通

    2007-01-01

    Editorial note Scholars around the world are voicing their criticisms on China’s family planning policy,which,in their opinions,will lead to an unhealthy population structure.This article reviews the concepts of"rich before old"and"negative demographic bonus",and concludes that with regards to some indicators such as dependency ratio and demographic bonus,there exists a discrepancy between calculations and reality.The author believes that China will continue to witness a surge of demographic bonus in the future.

  15. A unified framework of demographic time

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Riffe, Tim; Schöley, Jonas; Villavicencio, Francisco

    Demographic thought and practice is largely conditioned by the Lexis diagram, a two-dimensional graphical representation of the identity between age, period, and birth cohort. This relationship does not account for remaining years of life or other related time measures, whose use in demographic...... research is both underrepresented and incompletely situated. We describe a three-dimensional relationship between six different measures of demographic time: chronological age, time to death, lifespan, time of birth, time of death, and period. We describe four identities among subsets of these six measures...

  16. Extending the Life-Course Interdependence Model: Life Transitions and the Enduring Consequences of Early Self-Derogation for Young Adult Crime

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eitle, David; Taylor, John; Pih, Kay Kei-ho

    2010-01-01

    Few studies exploring the association between adolescent self-esteem and crime have considered whether the early adolescent self-esteem has any enduring consequences for young adult crime. Inspired by the life course and developmental criminology approaches, Arnett's notion of emerging adulthood, and Kaplan's self-derogation theory, this article…

  17. Extending the Life-Course Interdependence Model: Life Transitions and the Enduring Consequences of Early Self-Derogation for Young Adult Crime

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eitle, David; Taylor, John; Pih, Kay Kei-ho

    2010-01-01

    Few studies exploring the association between adolescent self-esteem and crime have considered whether the early adolescent self-esteem has any enduring consequences for young adult crime. Inspired by the life course and developmental criminology approaches, Arnett's notion of emerging adulthood, and Kaplan's self-derogation theory, this article…

  18. Local Community, Mobility and Belonging. Identification of and Socio- demographic Characteristics of Neighbourhoods

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Knudsen, Lisbeth B.; Arp Fallov, Mia; Jørgensen, Anja

    2010-01-01

    In a perspective of socio-geographic segregation and it’s socio-demographic consequences, depopulation of specific rural areas in the outskirts of Denmark has become an issue of increasing importance in public debate and in part of the research community. The question of depopulation is also part...

  19. Physical activity locations in Georgia: frequency of use by socio-demographic group

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lincoln R. Larson; Jason W. Whiting; Gary T. Green; J. M. Bowker

    2014-01-01

    Active outdoor recreation helps to mitigate health consequences associated with sedentary behavior. Enhanced understanding of socio-demographic differences in physical activity (PA) location preferences could therefore contribute to health promotion.This study examined frequency o fuse fo rvarious PA locations in Georgia,a state with historically high levels of...

  20. STATISTICAL EVALUATION OF THE IMPACT OF ECONOMIC FACTORS ON SOCIO-DEMOGRAPHICS OF THE COUNTRY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. Evseenko

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available In theory made a case the necessity of modeling economic and demographic indicators. The influences of economic, social and environmental indicators on social and demographic factors of development country are researeched. Given statistical evaluation of relationships based on correlation and regression analysis method.

  1. Demographic cycles, cohort size, and earnings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berger, M C

    1989-05-01

    This article examines whether position in the demographic cycle is an important factor in determining earnings and earnings growth. Earnings equations for white males are estimated by using March Current Population Survey data. Position in the demographic cycle is captured by including both measures of own cohort size and the size of surrounding cohorts in the estimated earnings equations. Position in the demographic cycle matters. Increases in own cohort size lead to flatter earnings profiles, whereas increases in the size of surrounding cohorts are associated with steeper earnings profiles. The net effect is that those who enter the labor market before or after the peak of the demographic cycle start out with lower earnings but experience faster earnings growth. This pattern is uniform across all schooling groups: high school dropouts, high school graduates, those with some college, and college graduates.

  2. The demographic work of Sir William Wilde.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Froggatt, P

    2016-05-01

    This paper argues that Sir William Wilde was indeed a pioneering demographer. It also describes the unveiling of the plaque commemorating Sir William Wilde at his home, 1, Merrion Square, Dublin on the 28 October 1971.

  3. Demographics and presenting clinical features of childhood ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Demographics and presenting clinical features of childhood systemic lupus ... and characteristics of children with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). ... Rashes were found to be the commonest clinical feature present at the time of diagnosis, ...

  4. The shifting demographic landscape of pandemic influenza.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shweta Bansal

    Full Text Available As Pandemic (H1N1 2009 influenza spreads around the globe, it strikes school-age children more often than adults. Although there is some evidence of pre-existing immunity among older adults, this alone may not explain the significant gap in age-specific infection rates.Based on a retrospective analysis of pandemic strains of influenza from the last century, we show that school-age children typically experience the highest attack rates in primarily naive populations, with the burden shifting to adults during the subsequent season. Using a parsimonious network-based mathematical model which incorporates the changing distribution of contacts in the susceptible population, we demonstrate that new pandemic strains of influenza are expected to shift the epidemiological landscape in exactly this way.Our analysis provides a simple demographic explanation for the age bias observed for H1N1/09 attack rates, and suggests that this bias may shift in coming months. These results have significant implications for the allocation of public health resources for H1N1/09 and future influenza pandemics.

  5. Gender inequalities from the demographic perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Devedžić Mirjana

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper analyzes the meaning of the phrase "the woman’s status in the society" that is recognized in demography as an important cultural factor of demographic development and transitional changes. The analysis indicates qualitative shifts in the woman’s status and simultaneously reveals its importance at present, not only in traditional, but also in modern and developed societies. On the other hand, it explains the importance of sex as a biodemographic determinant, and introduces the concept of gender that sheds another light on the concepts of sex and woman’s status in the society and integrates them. Gender regimes that subsume the inferiority of women in public and private social structures are examined from demographic perspective, albeit only in those phenomenological aspects that can be supported by demographic research, theories, and analyses. To this end, the paper analyzes the effects of strengthening gender equalities on the fertility and mortality transitions, the gender’s impact on the population distribution by sex in South Asian countries, and highlights the key role of gender in interpreting certain social and economic structures. It also stresses the establishing of gender equality as an important element of population policies. The global dimension of the patriarchal society is illustrated through a series of examples of demographic phenomena from various societies. Gender regimes underlie all of these phenomena. The paper puts foreword certain theoretical hypotheses about gender inequalities, and finds their connections with demographic behaviors and demographic indicators. Finally, it summarizes the role of demography in gender (inequality research and the demographic perspective of the way and the speed the demographic equality is being established. Demography is seen as an irreplaceable discipline in examining gender inequalities, especially at the global level. With the advance of qualitative methods in demography

  6. Sampling design considerations for demographic studies: a case of colonial seabirds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kendall, William L.; Converse, Sarah J.; Doherty, Paul F.; Naughton, Maura B.; Anders, Angela; Hines, James E.; Flint, Elizabeth

    2009-01-01

    For the purposes of making many informed conservation decisions, the main goal for data collection is to assess population status and allow prediction of the consequences of candidate management actions. Reducing the bias and variance of estimates of population parameters reduces uncertainty in population status and projections, thereby reducing the overall uncertainty under which a population manager must make a decision. In capture-recapture studies, imperfect detection of individuals, unobservable life-history states, local movement outside study areas, and tag loss can cause bias or precision problems with estimates of population parameters. Furthermore, excessive disturbance to individuals during capture?recapture sampling may be of concern because disturbance may have demographic consequences. We address these problems using as an example a monitoring program for Black-footed Albatross (Phoebastria nigripes) and Laysan Albatross (Phoebastria immutabilis) nesting populations in the northwestern Hawaiian Islands. To mitigate these estimation problems, we describe a synergistic combination of sampling design and modeling approaches. Solutions include multiple capture periods per season and multistate, robust design statistical models, dead recoveries and incidental observations, telemetry and data loggers, buffer areas around study plots to neutralize the effect of local movements outside study plots, and double banding and statistical models that account for band loss. We also present a variation on the robust capture?recapture design and a corresponding statistical model that minimizes disturbance to individuals. For the albatross case study, this less invasive robust design was more time efficient and, when used in combination with a traditional robust design, reduced the standard error of detection probability by 14% with only two hours of additional effort in the field. These field techniques and associated modeling approaches are applicable to studies of

  7. Two centuries of demographic change in Canada

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Barry Edmonston

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available One key aspect of the demographic transition—the shift from high mortality and high fertility to low mortality and low fertility is a major change in the population’s age distribution from a pyramid-shaped young age structure to a pillar-shaped old age structure. This paper discusses two demographic processes affected by changes in age structure. First, there are effects on vital rates, with important differences in the observed crude rates and the implied intrinsic vital rates. Second, changes in age structure influence population momentum. More recently, demographers have noted that older age distributions associated with fertility levels below replacement have negative population momentum. Although the demographic transition has been well-described for many countries, demographers have seldom analyzed intrinsic vital rates and population momentum over time, which are dynamic processes affected by changes in the population age structure and which, in turn, influence future changes in population growth and size. This paper uses new data and methods to analyze intrinsic vital rates and population momentum across two centuries of demographic change in Canada

  8. Influence of harvesting pressure on demographic tactics: Implications for wildlife management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Servanty, S.; Gaillard, J.-M.; Ronchi, F.; Focardi, S.; Baubet, E.; Gimenez, O.

    2011-01-01

    Demographic tactics within animal populations are shaped by selective pressures. Exploitation exerts additional pressures so that differing demographic tactics might be expected among populations with differences in levels of exploitation. Yet little has been done so far to assess the possible consequences of exploitation on the demographic tactics of mammals, even though such information could influence the choice of effective management strategies. Compared with similar-sized ungulate species, wild boar Sus scrofa has high reproductive capabilities, which complicates population management. Using a perturbation analysis, we investigated how population growth rates (??) and critical life-history stages differed between two wild boar populations monitored for several years, one of which was heavily harvested and the other lightly harvested. Asymptotic ?? was 1??242 in the lightly hunted population and 1??115 in the heavily hunted population, while the ratio between the elasticity of adult survival and juvenile survival was 2??63 and 1??27, respectively. A comparative analysis including 21 other ungulate species showed that the elasticity ratio in the heavily hunted population was the lowest ever observed. Compared with expected generation times of similar-sized ungulates (more than 6years), wild boar has a fast life-history speed, especially when facing high hunting pressure. This is well illustrated by our results, where generation times were 3??6years in the lightly hunted population and only 2??3years in the heavily hunted population. High human-induced mortality combined with non-limiting food resources accounted for the accelerated life history of the hunted population because of earlier reproduction. Synthesis and applications. For wild boar, we show that when a population is facing a high hunting pressure, increasing the mortality in only one age-class (e.g. adults or juveniles) may not allow managers to limit population growth. We suggest that simulations of

  9. Early planetary differentiation: Geophysical consequences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schubert, G.

    1992-01-01

    Differentiation of a planet can have profound consequences for its structure and thermal evolution, including core formation and crystal growth. Recent theories for the origin and evolution of the terrestrial planets and the Moon have all these bodies forming hot and cooling thereafter. Early core formation, and in the cases of Earth and Moon, a deep magma ocean possibly encompassing the entire mantle are characteristic features of these models. Secular cooling of Mars from a hot origin and cooling of Moon from a hot initial state with a deep magma ocean have been criticized on the basis of their tectonic implications. The cases of Mars and the Moon are discussed.

  10. Revolution without ideology: demographic transition in East Asia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, T D

    1980-01-01

    The acceleration of demographic transition in East Asia is a process of great potential import for the world. The most rapid and large scale transformation of demographic pattern in world history is being accomplished in this region. Demographic processes in other countries and regions have been viewed in the light of past events. Demographic transition has been accepted as a desirable goal, but its realization was believed subject to certain constraints. These include the need to attain high rates of economic growth in order to stimulate the transition and the longer period of time required to accomplish the transition. It was assumed that at least 2 generations would be subject to gradually diminishing rates of increase and slow cultural modification before transition entered its last phase. This interpretation of the preconditions and specific character of demographic transition has been subject to increasing challenge, and recent events in East Asia accentuate such doubts. Most new views begin with the premises that contemporary pretransition societies are not European in culture and the 1970s are not the 1880s. East Asia also differs culturally from other developing areas, including South and Southeast Asia. The most significant regional features are cultural. Demographic transition in the region began after World War 2 and somewhat differently in each East Asian country. The process began first in Japan. The 3rd phase was accomplished rapidly but not as a specific consequence of the modernization process. The end of World War 2 and the spurt in births accompanying military demobilization contributed to a population surge. The cultural factors of practicality, homogeneity, social discipline, and nearly universial literacy were decisive here. Abortion was legalized in 1948 and other forms of birth control were made readily available. Between 1947 and 1957 the birthrate was halved to 17/1000. In Taiwan and South Korea public concern about high rates of

  11. Demographic responses of Daphnia magna fed transgenic Bt-maize

    OpenAIRE

    2009-01-01

    The food/feed quality of a variety of genetically modified (GM) maize expressing Cry1Ab Bt-toxin was tested over the life-cycle of Daphnia magna, an arthropod commonly used as model organism in ecotoxicological studies. Demographic responses were compared between animals fed GM or unmodified (UM) near isogenic maize, with and without the addition of predator smell. Age-specific data on survival and birth rates were integrated and analysed using life tables and Leslie matrices. Survival, fecun...

  12. Antecedents and consequences of residential choice and school transfer.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Toni Falbo

    2005-05-01

    Full Text Available This article examines the antecedents and consequences of residential choice and school transfers within one of the eight largest urban school districts in Texas. This study is based on survey data from a representative sample of parents of K-12 students enrolled in this district. In addition to demographic characteristics of the family, the parent decision-making model of Schneider, Teske, & Marschall (2000 was examined to determine if aspects of this model were useful in understanding the school choices made at the beginning of the school year and the parents' motivation to move to another school at the end. The results provide some support for the view that residential choice is related to enhanced achievement and satisfaction; while, within-district transfers were used more by better educated White parents who did not qualify as low income. Parents' motivation to move their children to another school was greater when they perceived the school as less receptive to their involvement and their children as less successful in school.

  13. A Demographic Approach to Evaluating Tree Population Sustainability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Corey R. Halpin

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Quantitative criteria for assessing demographic sustainability of tree populations would be useful in forest conservation, as climate change and a growing complex of invasive pests are likely to drive forests outside their historic range of variability. In this paper, we used CANOPY, a spatially explicit, individual‐tree model, to examine the effects of initial size distributions on sustainability of tree populations for 70 northern hardwood stands under current environmental conditions. A demographic sustainability index was calculated as the ratio of future simulated basal area to current basal area, given current demographic structure and density‐dependent demographic equations. Only steeply descending size distributions were indicated to be moderately or highly sustainable (final basal area/initial basal area ≥0.7 over several tree generations. Five of the six principal species had demographic sustainability index values of <0.6 in 40%–84% of the stands. However, at a small landscape scale, nearly all species had mean index values >1. Simulation experiments suggested that a minimum sapling density of 300 per hectare was required to sustain the initial basal area, but further increases in sapling density did not increase basal area because of coincident increases in mortality. A variable slope with high q‐ratios in small size classes was needed to maintain the existing overstory of mature and old‐growth stands. This analytical approach may be useful in identifying stands needing restoration treatments to maintain existing species composition in situations where forests are likely to have future recruitment limitations.

  14. [The demographic transition in Latin America and Europe].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zavala De Cosio, M E

    1992-12-01

    This work describes and analyzes the "European model of demographic transition" and compares it to the fertility transition in Latin America, arguing that two different types of demographic transition coexist in Latin America. Chesnais has defined 3 principal postulates of the theory of demographic transition that he believes are universally valid: the precedence in time of mortality decline; the occurrence of reproductive transition in 2 phases, limitation of marriages followed by limitation of births; and the influence of economic growth on the initiation of the secular fertiilty decline. This work is largely limited to discussion of the first 2 postulates. In all the European transitions analyzed, mortality has declined before the occurrence of fertility changes. Exceptions cited in the literature have probably been caused by omissions or other problems in the data. The level of mortality at the beginning of the transition and the rate of decline differ, giving unique character to each transition. Imbalances resulting from mortality decline are at the root of modern fertility transitions. The French demographic transition was distinguished by early appearance of birth limitation by married couples, as part of the regulation of population growth. In the rest of Europe, during the pretransitional period, the traditional system of reproduction was regulated primarily by control of nuptiality. Only at a second stage was marital fertiity controlled, when limitation of marriage was no longer sufficient or had exceeded the limits of social acceptability. All countries of Northern and Western Europe recorded increased proportions definitively single as the demographic situation began to change, until the moment when couples began to limit births. The demographic transition in Latin America began at the end of the 19th century, with mortality decline. Fertility increased initially in Latin America as it had in Europe and for the same reasons, but the impact was greater

  15. Demographic and Related Determinants of Recent Cuban Emigration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Briquets, Sergio Diaz

    1983-01-01

    Examines principal demographic determinants of recent Cuban emigration and discusses how these demographic variables interact with other social, economic, and political determinants. Suggests that Cuban labor migration is more responsive to demographic factors than some theorists assume. (Author/MJL)

  16. An examination of the consequences in high consequence operations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Spray, S.D.; Cooper, J.A.

    1996-06-01

    Traditional definitions of risk partition concern into the probability of occurrence and the consequence of the event. Most safety analyses focus on probabilistic assessment of an occurrence and the amount of some measurable result of the event, but the real meaning of the ``consequence`` partition is usually afforded less attention. In particular, acceptable social consequence (consequence accepted by the public) frequently differs significantly from the metrics commonly proposed by risk analysts. This paper addresses some of the important system development issues associated with consequences, focusing on ``high consequence operations safety.``

  17. Pregnancy intention, demographic differences, and psychosocial health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maxson, Pamela; Miranda, Marie Lynn

    2011-08-01

    We explore the psychosocial, demographic, and maternal characteristics across wanted, mistimed, and unwanted pregnancies. Data from 1321 women from a prospective cohort study of pregnant women in Durham, NC, are analyzed. Psychosocial correlates were obtained through prenatal surveys; electronic medical records were used to ascertain maternal health and pregnancy outcomes. Sixty-two percent of the women indicated an unintended pregnancy, with 44% (578) mistimed and 18% (245) unwanted. Only 38% of the pregnancies were characterized as wanted. Women with unwanted and with mistimed pregnancies were similar demographically, but they differed significantly on psychosocial profiles and maternal characteristics. Women with mistimed and with wanted pregnancies differed in demographics and psychosocial profiles. Wanted pregnancies had the healthiest, mistimed an intermediate, and unwanted the poorest psychosocial profile. Women with unwanted pregnancies had the highest depression, perceived stress, and negative paternal support scores (ppsychosocial profiles had higher odds of being in the unwanted category. Controlling for psychosocial and demographic variables, perceived stress and positive paternal support remained significant predictors of belonging to the unwanted and mistimed groups. Fully characterizing pregnancy intention and its relationship to psychosocial profiles may provide a basis for identifying women with highest risk during pregnancy and early motherhood. Women with unwanted and mistimed pregnancies may appear similar demographically but are different psychosocially. Women with unwanted pregnancies have multiple risk factors and would benefit from targeted interventions.

  18. China’s New Demographic Challenge: From Unlimited Supply of Labour to Structural Lack of Labour Supply. Labour market and demographic scenarios: 2008-2048

    OpenAIRE

    Michele Bruni

    2011-01-01

    The paper focuses on the demographic and labour market consequences of the dramatic decline in fertility that has characterized China starting at the beginning of the ‘50s. It is shared opinion that a sustained decline in fertility below replacement level will provoke a decline in Total population, an even more pronounced decline in Working age population and very relevant ageing phenomena. I have recently shown that, on the contrary and coherently with empirical evidence, a decline in fertil...

  19. Herausforderungen des demografischen Wandels für den Arbeitsmarkt und die Betriebe (Challanges faced by the labour market and companies due to the demographic change)

    OpenAIRE

    Bellmann, Lutz; Hilpert, Markus; Kistler, Ernst; Wahse, Jürgen

    2003-01-01

    "Discussions about the consequences of the demographic change for the labour market and the economy have always been influenced by the idea that the unavoidable ageing and shrinking of the population relatively soon results in a lack of labour, a 'demogra